Archive for the ‘ronald pena’ tag

We do this every year. We argue about it every year. This is now the 8th version of this post (see the bottom for links/summary of the first seven). Thanks to long-since implemented service time changes the Rule-5 draft remains mitigated in importance. Yet here we are talking about it again, because we’re some of the few people out there who obsess about the edges of the 40-man roster, and who have meticulously studied our prospects for years and who don’t necessarily want to see the promising ones head out the door for a pittance. So here we are.

Next Monday at 8pm is the deadline to set 40-man rosters ahead of the Winter Meetings, which include the Rule-5 draft. With so many teams purposely tanking there’s going to be lots of usage of the draft this year. Lets take a look at who is eligible, who might get protected and make some predictions. I’ve got the Nats 40-man roster at 35 now, so there’s plenty of room to add names and do their off-season work.

As always, using the indispensable Nationals resource sites Draft tracker and the Big Board, and then looking up candidate acquisitions made via trade, here’s some thoughts on who might merit protection. Also incredibly useful is Roster Resource’s Nats Roster, which keeps track of options, rule-5 status and the like.

The quick Rule-5 rules for 2017; any college-aged draftee from 2014 or before who isn’t already on the 40-man roster is Rule-5 eligible this coming off season, and any high-school aged draftee/International Free Agent from 2013 or before is newly eligible this year, assuming they were at least 18 as of June 5th of that year.

Newly Eligible 2014 draft College Players this year worth consideration for protection:

Austen Williams: he has featured at High-A 3 years running, got moved to AA for the 2nd year running this year and still continues to struggle with that leap. I don’t think he’s a candidate to protect but is worth mentioning since he’s a long-serving starter in the organization. The team sent him to the AFL perhaps as an audition for consideration.

Tyler Mapes: the 30th round pick continues to be found gold for this team … but he missed the entire 2017 with an injury. Because of that he’s clearly not a rule-5 danger, but he could fit into the teams plans as a rotation member in AA or AAA this year. He has a career 2.68 ERA in the minors, vastly outperforming most of the rest of his draft class.

Taylor Gushue: the 2017 trade acquisition had a solid year in High-A, is a catcher in a system that needs them, and seems like a lock to add. He wasn’t set to the AFL for nothing.

Not mentioned: several other draftees from this class that are marginal prospects right now: Dale Carey, Matthew Page, Austin Davidson, Alec Keller, Robbie Dickey, Weston Davis, James Bourque. All these guys are still in the lower minors. Dickey represents the biggest investment ($400k signing bonus) and is one of the biggest disappointments from this draft.

Erick Fedde would have been the big name here to protect had he not already been added. Trea Turner was also a 2014 college draftee.

Drew Ward: he is literally the only 2013 HS draftee remaining in the system and is an interesting protection case. He had a great 2016 (making the All Star team and shining in High-A) but has not translated that success to AA. But, he’s only 22, and a 22-yr old struggling in AA isn’t that surprising. Question is; do you protect him? He’s blocked at the major league level by Anthony Rendon but that means little in a game where his value might be in trade versus production for the big league squad. It wouldn’t surprise me if he got protected.

Newly Eligible 2013 signed IFAs under consideration for protection:

Edwin Lora: SS who has progressed neatly one level at a time for 5 years. But he’s a career .238 hitter. We need a backup utility fielder and he fits the bill, but he doesn’t seem to be ready. I also don’t see him as a threat to get drafted.

Kelvin Gutierrez, 3B recently of the AFL who has shown some promise. He’s a lock to get protected based on his production and his presence in Arizona.

Luis Reyes, RHP who started 26 games for Potomac this year. He’s a bit wild, but he’s also a solid starter who projects to AA in 2018. Is that enough to be a draft threat? Maybe.

Anderson Franco, 3B: highly touted on prospect boards, but hit just .201 for low-A this year. Not a draft candidate but someone to watch/hope for a rebound 2018.

Not mentioned: many 2013 IFA signings throughout the lower levels of the system. This includes Aldrem Corridor, Joshual Ramirez, Luis Vilorio, Oliver Ortiz, Francys Peguero. Honestly, I had not even heard of most of these guys and wouldn’t be surprised if I had their eligibility wrong. They’re mostly in the very low minors.

Rule-5 Eligible hold-overs of note: 2013 or prior college draftees still hanging out in the system, or 2012 and prior HS/IFAs.

Wander Suero: the 2010 IFA exploded onto the scene this year as the closer in AA and then AAA, posting a 1.79 ERA for the year and heading to the AFL. He was already added to the roster two weeks ago.

John Simms: I’ve always liked this guy; he’s now worked his way to AAA and made 8 starts there last year. He isn’t a big K/9 guy, perhaps is seen as an org arm, but he’s got a good pedigree (Rice) and has made it to the cusp of the majors. Is that enough to protect him? Probably not.

Spencer Kieboom: he struggled enough in 2016 to get DFA’d in early 2017 … but then he hit pretty well in AAA this year. Is that enough to get him back into the mix?

Dakota Bacus: he pitched pretty darn well in relief across High-A and AA this year, and was sent to AFL to get more innings. Is he an option to add? He didn’t have the numbers that Suero did, but perhaps the team thinks he could be an option out of the pen.

Kyle McGowin: an interesting case since he was sent to the AFL: he struggled badly in 2017, getting demoted to AA at one point and posting a 5.95 ERA for the year. I don’t think we’d shed a tear if he was drafted, but I don’t think he’s meriting a 40-man spot right now.

Joan Baez; power arms don’t grow on trees, and even though he was “only” in high-A this year he’s well known enough to perhaps merit protection.

2013 or before College Draftees that are Rule-5 holdovers include David Masters, Isaac Ballou, Justin Thomas, Matthew DeRosier, Robert Benincasa, Derek Self, Brian Rauh, Ronald Pena, Robert Orlan, Steven Perez, Bryan Mejia, Osvaldo Abreu, Wirkin Estevez, Hector Silvestre, Jefry Rodriguez. Perhaps at some points in their careers some of these guys seemed like locks, but for now they all toil in the lower minors (for the most part) hoping to put themselves into contention.

MLFAs who are technically Rule-5 eligible: Yadiel Hernandez, Irving Falou, Greg Ross, Jaron Long, Jordan Mills. Long in particular has worked in AAA for three years now, but may be considered an org arm at this point. Ross looked promising for a while, but struggled badly in 2017.

So, who would I protect?

Wander Suero (already added)

Kelvin Gutierrez

Taylor Gushue

Drew Ward

Joan Baez

Who would I consider: Kieboom, Bacus. Maybe.

If they added these four additional guys they’d be at 39/40 on the roster, still leaving them immediate room for a FA signing or trade. But there’s more than a few names on our 40-man currently that could be cut (starting with Voth, Gott, Bautista). So we could see some manouvering this off-season.

Did I miss anyone? this is kind of tough analysis without a massive white board with every name in the organization listed … something none of us have time to do for free.

(Note: I know that there’s the most likely chance I have something wrong for Potomac since many readers here attend their games regularly; remember, i’m just a guy sitting at his desk scouting the score line so feel free to tell me where i’m wrong…)

And don’t forget the invaluable work of SpringfieldFan maintaining the Nats Big Board, now in its 12th season!

Note: in the below list, “missing” means that the player was on a 2016 roster, is still listed as active but is not found anywhere on a 2017 full-season roster as expected. Most are still sitting in Extended Spring Training (abbreviated XST throughout) with the intent of getting assigned as injuries or releases occur, but some may be release candidates. Other abbreviations I use often: MLFA == Minor League Free Agent, OOO = Out of the Organization.

Rotation discussion: In Potomac we start to see the log-jam of starters from recent drafts. I count 6 guys who could be starting and another 3 guys who have mostly started in the past. As it turns out, a couple of the long-time lefty starters from the 2015 draft have been pushed into bullpen roles, perhaps for the longer term. The burgeoning investment the team is making in the D.R. is evident here; all 5 rotation members are from the island, along with a huge chunk of the roster.

Of the starters listed above, i’d say that Luis Reyes and Jefry Rodriguez are probably on the thinnest of ice to stay in that role, given last year’s results. Reyes had a 5.60 ERA in half a season in Potomac last year and Rodriguez had a 4.96 ERA in a full season starting in Low-A. Wirkin Estevez feels like he’s been around forever; this is his 7th pro season in the system yet is only in High-A; he had a couple spot starts last year and I’m kind of surprised he made the rotation over especially Matthew Crownover and Taylor Guilbeau. I could also see Grant Borne move into the rotation if one of the stated starters fail; Borne had a nifty 3.34 season in long relief in Low-A, pitching an average of 3 innings a stint, so perhaps he’s in line for getting stretched out. I guess the old adage “you can never have too much pitching” holds true for Potomac; its nice to have 9 different guys who you know could give you a start.

The preponderance of guys used to going longer stints leaves just a handful of known “relievers” in the pen. R.C. Orlan was Potomac’s effective closer last year and returns to that role, while Hagerstown’s closer Mariano Rivera Jr. rises up to form a nice 8th-9th inning lefty-righty combo. Amazingly Ronald Pena returns for this 6th pro season, and returns to Potomac where he started half a season in 2014. No offense to Pena, but I remain surprised that he’s lasted this long with the org. The last non D/L name is a 2017 MLFA by the name of Kyle Schepel who I had completely forgotten about until I looked him up. Kylin Turnbull, who has not thrown a pitch in anger since 2014, remains on the D/L in Potomac along with Tommy Peterson, who had an excellent 2016 season in relief and could be a good reliever if he is healthy.

The guys who are listed as “missing” include three guys who all finished the 2016 season in High-A and seem like they’re intended to start there again.

Who am I focusing on: I want to see what Joan Baez has; we know he can bring the heat but can he be an effective starter? I’ve always liked the trio of lefty veteran college starters we picked in the 2015 draft early rounds; Hearn (since traded), Crownover, Borne and Guilbeau (picked in the 5th, 6th, 7th and 10th rounds respectively), so I look forward to them all moving up a level in 2017. I want to see what the two closer-quality relievers (Orlan and Rivera) can do.

More obscure stats on players are sometimes found at places like thebaseballcube.com, perfectgame.org, their college websites, twitter accounts for the players, and good old fashioned deep-dive googling.

This review is especially important to follow because the high-school age draftees in this 2012 class are Rule-5 eligible this coming off-season. Not that there’s that many of them, but we’ll put a pin in this post when we eventually do Rule-5 Analysis later this month.

With out further ado…

Round 1: (#16 overall) Lucas Giolito HS RH Starting pitcher: 6.75 ERA in 21 1/3 MLB innings, 6-5 with a 2.97 ERA mostly in AA but with 7 starts in AAA. 116/44 K/BB in 115 1/3 minor league innings. I feel, much like the 2016 presidential election, that most of us are girded in our opinions on Giolito at this point. I think Giolito’s entire season was tainted by the stories of mechanical tweaks done by some ne’er-do-weller in Viera, and his results on the field showed. He struggled with command and hit-ability during his brief time with the MLB team, and his velocity was down from where we were “expecting” it to be. Its important to remember that he just turned 22, that he lost a significant amount of development time because of his TJ surgery, and that we should be patient. But he definitely has a “todo list” for 2017. I’m projecting that he starts in AAA until he proves that he can command his fastball. Matriculated to Majors. Post-writing update: Giolito headlined a trade for Adam Eaton, heading to the White Sox. On his way out the door, word was leaked to multiple reporters that the Nats had “soured” on Giolito, questioning his toughness and his ceiling. Luckily for Giolito, the White Sox pitching coach (Don Cooper) is quite well regarded, so if there’s someone out there that can “fix” whatever’s wrong with him, its Cooper. I’ve updated the summary for his departure, which significantly thins this draft class.

Round 2: (80) Tony Renda, Coll Jr 2B: Traded to the Yankees on 6/11/15 for David Carpenter. Renda then was included in the package that the Yankees sent to Cincinnati for Aroldis Chapman. For Cincinnati, Renda got 67 ABs this year and hit .183. Post-writing update: hat tip to commenter KW, Renda was outrighted to AAA earlier this month. He may have matriculated to the majors, but its safe to classify him as a AAA-ceiling player now.

Round 5: (174) Spencer Kieboom, Coll Jr C: Slashed .230/.324/.314 in 309 ABs for AA Harrisburg. 61/43 K/BB in 94 games splitting time behind the dish, 5 homers, 0 SB. Kieboom didn’t have the best numbers hitting in AA; he’s known for his defense. He became the final nats 40-man call-up when Wilson Ramos tore his ACL and got exactly one MLB at-bat (and thus permanently qualifying him for the MLB health plan for the rest of his days). He’s a catcher on the 40-man roster; he’s going to play in 2017. The question is where; right now depending on whether the team acquires another catcher, Pedro Severino may get pushed back to AAA, which may very well keep Kieboom in AA starting. Only makes sense. But if the team decides to keep Severino up, then Kieboom moves up too. Trending steady. Post-writing update: the team went and acquired Derek Norris, which now pushes Kieboom to 4th out of 4 on the depth chart, almost guaranteeing that he’ll be in AA again (you can’t have both Severino and Kieboom splitting time in AAA; that makes no sense). I don’t think this necessarily changes his projection, since Jose Lobaton hits so poorly, but he does have to climb over Severino if he wants to matriculate permanently.

Round 7: (234) Robert Benincasa, Coll Jr. RH relief pitcher: 1-1 with a 4.50 ERA in 21 appearances and 30 relief innings for AA. 35/14 K/BB in 30 IP, 1.50 whip, 4.69 fip, .329 babip for AA. Benincasa threw a few outings in Potomac but we’re just focusing on AA numbers here. He repeated AA for the third successive season and had good K/9 numbers but not much else in support. I’m guessing he sticks around for one more season, likely in the AAA bullpen, and plays out the 6-year string before hitting MLFA after next season. Unless he runs into a numbers game; there’s likely at least three 40-man roster guys that will get pushed to the AAA bullpen, limiting jobs for org-arms like Benincasa. He could be a release candidate before the full season squads break next spring. Trending down.

Round 8: (264) Stephen Perez, Coll Jr. SS: Slashed .249/.351/.342 playing middle infield for Harrisburg. 59/47 K/BB in 301 ABs, 5 homers, 12SB. Perez was a Ben Zobrist-like player for AA, getting PT at all four infield positions plus left field. His slash figures were definitely an improvement over prior seasons, and may have stabilized his chances of moving up. All of the middle infielders for AAA this year are FAs (I believe) so there’s room for him to move up. I don’t view him as anything other than an org-guy though, and (like Benincasa above) seems likely to play out his contract and hit MLFA next season. Trending Steady.

Round 9:(294) Derek Self, Coll Sr. RH relief pitcher: 4-2 with a 4.10 ERA mostly with AA Harrisburg. 43/18 K/BB in 52 2/3 innings, 1.48 whip, 3.98 whip, .333 babip. Self started the year briefly in Potomac’s bullpen but quickly returned to AA, where he spent most of the year. He got a 9/1 call-up to fill a bullpen spot in AAA. He improved his ERA over last year’s AA session and continues to hang on despite his lack of draft pedigree. I don’t see that he’s earned a promotion to AAA, and with a potentially packed AAA bullpen he may be back in AA again or to be a release candidate at this point. He turns 27 in January; I think the team knows what they have with him by this point. Trending down.

Round 10: (324) Craig Manuel, Coll Sr C: Released 4/2/16 after (presumably) failing to win the backup catcher job at either Potomac or Harrisburg. Time ran out for the locak product (born in Rockville, MD).

Round 11: (354) Brian Rauh, Coll Jr RH starter/reliever: Missed the entire 2016 season due to injury. Borrowing from last year’s analysis, if he’s healthy expect him to contend for the AA rotation in 2017. If he’s not healthy, he’s a release candidate at this point. Trending down.

Round 15: (474) Brandon Smith, OF:Didn’t sign. Attended Division II Grand Canyon University, where he played four years. He hit a robust .348/.402/.478 as a junior but wasn’t drafted, then slumped to hit just .233 his senior year. Again not drafted, might be done with baseball.

Round 16: (504) Ronald Pena, Juco-2 RH starter/reliever: threw just 8 innings for Low-A Hagerstown before hitting the D/L in late April; he got another few innings in GCL rehab sessions but it was a lost season for Pena. I’d say he’s a release candidate unless the team likes something they see, but he’s now thrown just 18 innings in two seasons and the two A-ball full season squads seem pretty full. Trending Down.

Round 25: (774) Freddy Avis, RHP: didn’t sign. Attending Stanford, where in 2013 he appeared in exactly one game and pitched 2 innings before suffering a season-ending injury. That injury never got better and he retired from baseball altogether in March of 2015.

Round 26: (804) Skye Bolt, RHP: didn’t sign. Attended UNC, had an excellent college career and was a 4th round pick in 2015 by the Oakland A’s. Hit .231 for Oakland’s low-A team this year.

Round 27: (834) Cody Poteet, RHP: didn’t sign. Attended UCLA and got drafted (like Bolt) in the 4th round of the 2015 draft by the Marlins. Was 4-9 with a 2.91 ERA starting in the Sally league this year.

Round 30: (924) Robert “R.C.” Orlan Coll Jr LH Starter: 5-6 with a 3.93 ERA relieving and sometimes closing for High-A Potomac. 46/46 K/BB ratio in 52 2/3 innings (no, that wasn’t a typo). 1.61 whip, 5.16 fip, .250 babip. I’m not quite sure what happened to Orlan’s control, since it looked just fine in 2015 (85/28 K/BB ratio in 72 relief IP). The Virginia product (UNC by way of Deep Run HS in Glen Allen, VA) definitely needs to get his walks under control to keep moving up, but is a potential lefty reliever in a system that could use one. I’ll say Trending Steady and project him for the AA bullpen.

Round 34: Jake Jefferies, 2B: didn’t sign. Attended Cal State Fullerton and subsequently drafted again by the Nats in the 39th round in 2015. As we found out in our 2015 post, he was released in July 2016.

Round 35: Corey Bafidis, LHP: didn’t sign but Washington picked him in 2013. As we learned in the 2013 post, he got released in July 2014.

Round 36: Max Ungar, C: didn’t sign. Went to the Charles E Smith Jewish Day school in Bethesda and attended Division III Denison, where he did seem to ever play. A quick google search found him on linkedin; he graduated in 2016 and now works in the DC area. I’ll venture a guess that this was a “favor pick” to someone with ties to the organization.

Round 37: Tyler Watson, LHP: didn’t sign. Attended Kansas U for a year, then bounced to McLennan Community College in Waco, TX and and got drafted by the Angels in the 38th round of the 2014 draft. He had a 3.42 ERA for the Angels’ low-A squad in 2016. This is *not* the same Tyler Watson, by the way, that the Nats drafted in the 2015 draft.

Round 38: Jarred Messer, RHP: didn’t sign. Graduate from Malone college and has pitched the last three years with the Kansas City T-Bones in the independent American Association, going 4-5 in 2016.

Round 39: Mitchell Williams, C: didn’t sign. Attended the Marion Military Institute in Alabama, for which I cannot find any stats.

Round 40: Ricky Gutierrez, CF: didn’t sign. Presumably playing football for U-Conn, as per the Draft Tracker.

We have speculated that this would be a one-player draft, and we’re getting closer to that reality. Only Giolito is “succeeding” right now, and there’s rather fierce debate about his “ceiling.” Renda technically has matriculated to the majors as well, but his .183 BA there isn’t exactly all-star calibre (and he was just outrighted, meaning he may be downgraded to “peak before majors” in future versions of this post). Kieboom is on the 40-man roster but is 3rd out of 3 4th out of 4 on the Nats Catcher depth chart and may not even play in AAA next year. The only other two guys remaining from this draft class even projected to be trending steady are both clearly org-guys who are playing out the string (Perez, Orlan). Of the 8 remaining players from this draft, Giolito is on the 40-man and no one else merited any discussion for Rule 5 protection this coming December.

If there was some complaint about the 2013 draft class … then how do you feel about this one? I remember arguing in this space about whether a one-man draft could be a success if that one player was a perennial all-star (as Giolito projected to be for a while) and there was differing opinions on the subject. Well, now that there’s questions about what Giolito will eventually be, now how do you feel about this draft class?

Austin Voth seems like the most likely rule-5 protection candidate. Photo mlb.com official

Here’s our annual ritual. Discussing the Rule 5 draft and the impact it has on rosters.

According to my Off-Season Baseball Calendar teams have just a few days (Nov 18th) to add players to the 40-man rosters ahead of the Rule-5 draft (which occurs the last day of the winter meetings (this year, at the Gaylord Hotel in the Maryland waterfront in early Dec).

As always, using the indispensable Nationals resource sites Draft tracker and the Big Board, and then looking up candidate acquisitions made via trade, here’s some thoughts on who might merit protection. The quick Rule-5 rules; any college-aged draftee from 2012 or before who isn’t already on the 40-man roster is Rule-5 eligible this coming off season, and any high-school aged draftee/International Free Agent from 2011 or before is newly eligible this year.

This year’s Draft class Stat overview posts were especially helpful too; here’s the 2013 version for College draftees and the 2012 version for high school-age draftees that are now Rule-5 eligible.

Newly Eligible 2013 draft College Players this year worth consideration for protection:

Jake Johansen: Only listed because of his draft round and bonus; Johansen has been a huge disappointment and will not be protected.

Austin Voth: Absolutely has to be protected and should have been added on 9/1 to get him some MLB innings.

John Simms: Put up solid numbers in AA and could feature in AAA this year, but isn’t a shoe-in to immediately contribute at the MLB level. Arguable whether he’s worth protecting. I would, but then again, i’m pro-prospect.

Not mentioned: several other draftees from this class that are marginal prospects right now: Cody Gunter, David Masters, William (Isaac) Ballou, Justin Thomas and Matthew DeRosier. All of these guys are scuffling or trending down in my analysis and are not risks for being drafted. Also did not mention any MLFA’s picked up that were 2013 draftees (Philip Walby, Jake Mayers) since they’re both in the low-minors.

None: the only HS-age draftee from 2012 that remains in our system is Lucas Giolito, who was added to the 40-man mid 2016 season.

Newly Eligible 2012 signed IFAs under consideration for protection:

Osvaldo Abreu: slashed .247/.328/.346as the starting SS for Potomac. Has neatly risen one level every year, so seems project-able to AA for 2017. I can’t see him getting drafted though considering he had a .674 OPS figure in High-A this year, even given that he could provide MIF cover for a MLB team. Has gotten some notice on prospect lists.

Rafael Bautista: slashed .282/.344/.341 with 56 stolen bases in 136 games playing mostly CF/RF for Harrisburg. A CF with that kind of speed who maintains his BA and OBP is worth protecting. Turns 24 before next season though.

Jefry Rodriguez: went 7-11 with a 4.96 ERA in 25 starts for Low-A Hagerstown. Rodriguez was on our lips for a while as a potential high end prospect … until he couldn’t succeed outside of short-season ball. 2016 was the third year he’s competed in Hagerstown and a 4.96 ERA isn’t going to cut it. He’s no threat to get drafted but probably keeps moving up the system.

Philips Valdez: went 12-7 with a 4.24 ERA across two-levels and 27 starts this year. He turns 25 in a few days. Despite being a AA starter, I’m not sure any team would really roll the dice on him in Rule-5. He “only” had 109 Ks in 152 IP this year, not exactly overpowering stuff. He also got hit in AA; i can see him starting in AA rotation again next season.

David Ramos spent most of 2016 on the D/L in Auburn and has never pitched above low-A ball. Not a candidate to be protected.

Not mentioned: several 2012 IFA signings throughout the lower levels of the system. This includes Andres Martinez, Darryl Florentino, Mario Sanchez, Brayan Serrata.

One other significant 2012 IFA signee is already on the 40-man: Reynaldo Lopez.

Rule-5 Eligible hold-overs of note: 2012 or prior college draftees still hanging out in the system, or 2011 and prior HS/IFAs.

Raudy Read: slashed .262/.324/.415in a full year catching in High-A. Promising, but he’s also already 23. Considering a rule-5 draft of a player like Read brings back memories of our own drafting of Jesus Flores.

Bryan Mejia: slashed .241/.279/.347 starting a full year playing 2B for High-A. Not a ton of power there; little chance of being drafted, no prospect buzz.

Jose Marmolejos (no longer -Diaz): slashed .289/.370/.475 between High-A and AA while earning his 2nd straight Nats minor league hitter of the year award. Good slugging percentage showing lots of gap power and some home-run power, but he’s already 1B-only and is 23.

Hector Silvestre: spent most of 2016 doing short stints/rehab assignments after missing all of 2015. 9 starts, 1.42 ERA amongst all A-ball affiliates. Looks promising for us, but no need for Rule-5 protection at this point.

Gilberto Mendez: nice numbers as a late-inning reliever for High-A (2.09 ERA, 8 saves). Turns 24 tomorrow and is an undersized RHP reliever; no risk of being picked.

Wander Suero (2010 IFA): 3-0 with a 2.44 ERA, 48/21 K/BB ratio in 55 AA innings. Solid numbers … but not a lefty so seems unlikely to get drafted. But he’s really no different than Simms, so he’s a maybe.

2012 College Draftees that are Rule-5 holdovers include Perez, Benincasa, Self, Pena, Orlan; none are really worth protecting. There are no 2011 HS draftees still remaining in the system. Other 2011 IFAs still around but not mentioned: Anderson Martinez, Diomedes Eusebio, Randy Encarnacion, Jorge Tillero. 2010 IFAs still hanging around not otherwise mentioned: Adderling Ruiz, Narciso Mesa. All are so low in the system they’re not worth mentioning.

So, who would I protect? As of today, the team has a ton of open slots on the 40-man roster to work with (32 of 40 as of this writing), but has to “save” some room for some clear FA/trade acquisitions. There’s also (arguably) a bit of wiggle room there; I see at least 4-5 additional guys on the current 40-man who could make way if need be.

Locks: Voth, Bautista

Maybes: Simms, Abreu, Read, Marmolejos, Suero, Valdez

Who would I protect? Probably Voth, Bautista and Marmolejos. I’d roll the dice leaving the likes of Abreu and Read unprotected despite their presence on prospect lists, and I’d roll the dice leaving Simms, Suero and Valdez unprotected since they’re all RHP and none has pitched above AA.

Thoughts? Opinions? Did I forget anyone and/or am I considering the wrong guys? These IFAs are always iffy in terms of eligibility, and some of the MLFAs are confusing too in terms of their status. So let me know if I’m missing someone.

MLBpipeline posted its Rule5 analysis and mentioned (for the nats) the four names we’re bouncing around here as well. We don’t have any super-high ranked prospects to protect like other teams.

11/18/16: official announcement: Voth, Bautista, Marmolejos, Read and Skole. Most surprised by Skole, who I didn’t even bother to do analysis about above thanks to his lack of a 9/1 call up this year.

For a fun trip down memory lane, here’s the same Rule 5 Protection analysis post for 2015, 2014, 2013, 2012, 2011, and 2010.

Discussion: only one surprise from the pre-Spring Training prediction for this team: Matt Belisle makes the team ahead of Trevor Gott. Otherwise everyone is in the roles they were acquired to hold. There was some question about whether Blake Treinen would get optioned early in the spring, but not now. The order of the starters wasn’t right: Ross is being treated like the 4th starter and Roark the 3rd, I guess.

It probably wasn’t too hard to predict 12 out of the 13 spots in the MLB roster, so we won’t pat ourselves on the back too much. Lets talk minors.

Discussion: No surprises in the Rotation: we predicted 7 guys in the AAA rotation competition and ended up with the 5 we predicted, a 6th as the swing-man/spot starter and the 7th (Arroyo) on the D/L for the time being.

The bullpen has some surprises: Gott as previously mentioned was projected in the majors; the other 6 bullpen members were in the 10 projected guys competing for the AAA spots. Two guys got pushed to AA. Brady starts on the D/L. Both my release candidates did in fact get released, along with off-season MLFA Velasquez. The real surprise making the AAA team was Masset.

Burnett opted out when he didn’t make the MLB team, but it wasn’t a stretch to predict that happening.

No real projection surprises though, all in all. Nobody who we projected to start in AA got moved up; only a couple guys who got moved down (Bacus and de los Santos). I’m slightly surprised de los Santos is in AA and it makes me question even more his 40-man add and usage last year (3 days of service time and now two options blown).

The big surprise here is that Austen Williams made the AA team; I had him at High-A. Perhaps it isn’t THAT big of a surprise given how well he pitched last year, but it does seem to go away from the Nats’ proclivities to start guys at their prior season’s level and have them “earn” early to mid-season promotions. He joins a pretty high powered duo of Giolito and Lopez. Gorski was an off-season MLFA brought in for competition and he didn’t win. Only one of my four release candidates was in fact released (Dupra): the other three got dumped to XLS or High-A, which is good for them but not good for the massive log-jam of recently drafted college arms who need spots in A-ball.

In the bullpen, we’ve talked before about the surprising release of Jake Walsh. There’s 5 guys stuck in XST limbo for now, a couple of which are release candidates. One name that popped out of the blue is Robert Fish, who signed an under-the radar MLFA deal in mid February and who apparently hasn’t pitched professionally in two full seasons. He must have had a pretty good spring.

Discussion: My High-A predictions show just how out of whack my “reading the stat lines” predictions can be, especially for starters.

In the Rotation, AWilliams earned a jump to AA. I thought Dickson and Van Orden were solid rotation candidates; instead they got released. Lastly, I thought both Estevez and Reyes were repeating Hagerstown; Estevez missed the whole season and Reyes posted a 4.82 ERA there last year. Instead they’re opening day starters for Potomac. Not even close here.

In the Bullpen, we got Johanssen, Orlan, Glover, Brinley, Sylvestre and Turnbull right (not too bad prediction wise), though the last couple guys are on the D/L and still may be release candidates. Who did we miss on? Robinson was an off-season MLFA (who signs MLFAs for high-A?), and Sanchez I had projected to repeat after posting a 4.86 in Hagerstown last year.

From a starter standpoint, we did a pretty good job projecting who would be in Hagerstown’s rotation. Four of the Six projected candidates “seem” like they’re in the rotation (full disclosure, we’re kind of guessing who these teams are using as starters until we see the first turn through the rotation). The misses? LReyes, who surprisingly is in High-A, and Guilbeau, who I thought would be on the team but in a relief role.

In the bullpen; we missed on Sanchez (who made High-A), Borne and Gunter (both of whom are in XST for now). In their place are a slew of guys who I was projecting to be elsewhere. I thought both VanVossen and DeRosier were release candidates after poor 2015 seasons in Short-A; instead they’re in the opening day bullpen. I had LTorres in the Short-A bullpen after mostly failing as a short-A starter.

Lastly there’s Bach and RPena; I had both projected in Potomac. I thought Bach had a perfectly good Low-A season last year and has nothing yet to prove in the Sally League. Pena returns to Hagerstown for the third time; he pitched in Low-A in 2013 and 2014. You have to think this is a planned short stint before he returns to at least High-A.

No real surprises in the “Missing/XST” crew: Dickey is the biggest profile name here but it seems to me he was injured last year so its hard to pass judgement on his stats anywhere. Borne‘s numbers were basically identical to the likes of Hearn and Guilbeau’s; he missed out in the 2016 competition. Gunter might make sense as a mid-season promotion to cover for injury. Ramos was hurt most of the year last year.

In the “release candidate” section, I was clearly wrong about Estevez. DWilliams and Boghosian have already indeed been released. And both Mooney/Pirro missed out on the full-season roster and are in XST limbo.

Let the games begin! Are there surprises for you guys in these rosters?

Watson was a big over-slot draftee in 2015 and did not disappoint in his brief GCL debut. Photo bia mychandlerschools.org (his HS)

This is the 7th and last in the 2015 Pitching staff review series, here’s a review of GCL/Rookie league pitching staff for 2015. I generally don’t follow the Dominican Summer League teams, simply because there seems to be so little correlation of success there to success domestically. Other parts of the 2015 series:

For some historical perspective, here’s 2013’s version (featuring Lucas Giolito again), 2012’s version (Lucas Giolito was the feature pitcher) and 2011’s version (Jack McGeary the feature pitcher) of this post specifically for the GCL/Rookie league. Had I done this post for 2014, I would have struggled to find a worthy player to feature but would have settled on Anderson Martinez.

A caveat before starting this post: this is short-season ball, so nobody’s got more than a few dozen innings. The staff leader had 42 innings. So yes this is absolutely going to be some “Small Sample Size” analysis. Which in some cases is unfair to the player (to the good or to the bad). It is what it is. The Nats GCL team basically gets two kinds of players; over-aged college draftees (since we basically only draft college arms) and DSL graduates who may or may not be ready for prime time. So each type of guy may have his own caveats when looking at numbers.

GCL starters. Here’s an overview of the starters used in 2015, starting with the original starters, going all the way to the rehab spot starts.

Carlos Acevedogot the opening day start and was used as a long-man the rest of the way, getting 29.2 IP across 10 appearances. 3.64 ERA, 1.11 whip, 3.61 fip, 20/9 K/BB. Acevedo is an older DR signee, already 21 but only in his 2nd pro season. These were decent enough numbers though and I can see him getting bumped up to Short-A; can’t quite see him making the Low-A bullpen though. Outlook for Next Season: short-A bullpen.

Steven Fuenteswent 3-4 with a 5.22 ERA in 39.2 IP in his first season domestically after excelling as a 17yr old in the DSL last year. 33/15 K/BB ratio but his peripherals were iffy: 1.54 whip, 4.14 fip. His K/9 rate seems promising and he’s young enough that there’s no reason to push him along: I think he repeats the GCL in 2016. Outlook for Next Season: GCL rotation.

Juan Bermudezstruggled with the GCL squad, posting a 6.91 ERA in 14.1 IP and got demoted back to the DSL. There he also struggled and the squad released him in August. Outlook for Next Season: out of the organization.

Maximo Valeroexcelled in the GCL, going 4-1 with a 1.72 ERA across 36.2 IP. 32/7 K/BB and a sub 1.00 whip. He earned a promotion to Short-A by mid August and finished the season there, posting a 2.63 ERA in Short-A with a 15/3 K/BB ratio. He has not yet turned 21 and looks like he could be an excellent IFA signing. I think he makes sense at this point to compete for the Low-A rotation; problem is that there’s just way too many arms already competing for that rotation. I think he could end up as a long-man in Hagerstown and then get pushed to the Short-A rotation in mid June. Outlook for Next Season: Short-A rotation.

Wilber Penahad an ok first domestic season, going 1-6 with a 3.92 ERA, 1.51 whip and 36/12 K/BB in 39 IP. Not great, but not horrible. He won’t turn 21 until after next season, so I can see him repeating the GCL to work on his WHIP. Outlook for Next Season: GCL rotation.

Joan Baezwas tried out in Low-A and Short-A briefly before settling back into the GCL for the majority of the season; there he exceled, posting a 2.13 ERA in 9starts/42IP. 42/19 K/BB. This was his 2nd go-around in the GCL and he improved across the board. He’s a bit of an older IFA signing (he just turned 21 in December, so 2016 will still be his age 21 season), so he makes sense to try out again in Hagerstown in 2016. I’m not sure he’s going to make that rotation though; he may be destined for the bullpen. That being said, the team clearly wants him to stick as a starter. Outlook for Next Season: Low-A long-man/spot starter.

Yorlin Reynosogot one quick start in Auburn before getting demoted back to the GCL to repeat the level; he ended up going 1-3 with a 5.66 ERA, 1.51 whip, 26/14 K/BB ratio in 35 GCL innings as a 19yr old. These are improvements over 2014’s GCL stint, and he’s still young, so I can see the team sticking with him. But he can’t play in Viera forever. 2016 needs to see some improvement; he needs to stick in the Short-A rotation. Outlook for Next Season: Short-A rotation competition/release candidate.

McKenzie Millswent 0-5, 7.27 ERA with 24/28 K/BB in 34.2 ip across two levels. He posted a 4.46 fip, .405 babip while in Short-A then got dropped back to the Rookie league, where he threw 23 IP at a 7.04 ERA clip. Rough season for Mills, who couldn’t make the jump to short-A, then struggled when back in rookie ball. Just way too many walks to be effective, but likely hangs around a bit longer since he can just hang out in XST and try to pick back up on next year’s short season squads again. 2016 may be a make-it or break-it year though. Outlook for Next Season: Short-A rotation competition/release candidate.

Matt DeRosierwent 0-2, 3.58 ERA with 30/7 K/BB in 27IP (7 starts) mostly in the GCL, having gotten dumped out of Auburn after a couple of poor starts. 2.02 fip, .435 babip in Auburn, so perhaps it was a short-sample-size that was unflattering. He needs to put together a nice string of healthy starts somewhere outside of complex ball though. Outlook for Next Season: Short-A rotation competition/release candidate.

Tyler Watsonwent 1-1, 0.00 ERA and 16/4 k/bb in 13ip, 1.81 fip, .226 babip in the GCL. The Nats 2015 34th round over-slot signee did not disappoint. He’s young but he looked dominant in his first pro innings. I’ll bet he stays in XST and debuts next year on the short-A squad. He’s young though; so don’t be surprised if he repeats the GCL entirely to build up innings. Outlook for Next Season: Short-A rotation.

Mick VanVossenwent 0-2, 4.83 ERA across 2 levels. 23/13 K/BB in 31.2 ip, 4.09 fip, .260 babip in GCL (where he spent most of the year). Nothing too special here; struggled when he got to Auburn but only had 6ip there. Needs to show a better K/BB ratio to compete next year. And a college senior in the GCL isn’t going to cut it; he needs to make next year’s short-A bullpen and succeed or he’ll be axed. Outlook for Next Season: Short-A bullpen competition/release candidate.

Rehab Guys:

Ian Dickson had two rehab starts for the GCL: see High-A write-up for more.

Brian Rauhhad one rehab start and a couple other appearances for the GCL: see AA write-up for more.

Short Timer Guys waiting to get assigned to the proper level:

Taylor Guilbeau featured briefly (2 appearances, 1 start) in GCL before rightfully joining the Short-A rotation where he belonged. See Short-A write-up for more.

Taylor Hearnalso featured briefly (2 appearances, 1 start) in GCL before rightfully joining the Short-A rotation where he belonged. See Short-A write-up for more.

GCL Relievers: taking a look at the relief corps. We’ll organize relievers by going by IP from most to least. Anyone with than 10 IP or who was solely doing rehab will get cursory analysis at the end.

Russell Harmeningwent 1-0, 2.86 ERA in the GCL with 16/4 K/BB in 22ip, 3.26 fip, .303 babip. He was a college junior draftee but a young one; he didn’t turn 21 until after the season was over. I’d say he makes sense to slot into the short-A bullpen in 2016. Outlook for Next Season: Short-A bullpen.

Brayan Serratafared well in his first professional innings after a significant layoff since signing in 2012. He had no innings in 2012, 2013 or 2014 (at last as far as milb.com knows). This year in his turning-21 age season he posted a 1.80 ERA in 20 GCL innings (14/8 K/BB). I’m guessing he’s been hurt for a while; now he’s healthy and needs to move up. I’m guessing he does another season in XST and slots into the short-A bullpen. Outlook for Next Season: Short-A bullpen.

Calvin Coppingwas 1-2, 4.76 ERA in the GCL 14/5 K/BB in 17ip, 4.01 fip, .305 babip. So-So numbers for a college guy in the rookie league. As with his fellow middle-of-the-road senior sign pitchers, he needs to show more dominance if he wants a job out of spring 2016. Outlook for Next Season: Short-A bullpen competition/release candidate.

Angher Cespedesposted a 5.14 ERA in 14IP in his first domestic season after being a relatively old DR signing. He’ll turn 22 next year and doesn’t seem likely to do much outside of complex ball; i’ll say he repeats the GCL if the team retains him. Outlook for Next Season: GCL bullpen/release candidate.

Jorge Pantojawas 1-1, 5.84 ERA in the GCL, 11/3 K/BB in 12ip, 2.74fip, .395 babip. Looks like some potential there with a K/inning and a FIP that flatters his ERA. Probably needs more time. Outlook for Next Season: Short-A bullpen competition/release candidate.

Carlos Penasigned as an NDFA and posted a 9.82 ERA in 7 GCL innings. He got hit hard but he did strike out a guy an inning, so perhaps he hangs around the complex for antoher shot. Outlook for Next Season: GCL bullpen

Pedro Avilais a youngster who was an 2014 IFA signing and who *destroyed* the DSL in 2015; 87/17 K/BB in 59.2 innings and was summoned to Viera in Mid August. He threw just one 4-inning outing before the season ended but he looks quite promising. He’s profiling as a starter and seems like a good bet to be the GCL’s opening day starter in 2016. Outlook for Next Season: GCL rotation.

Kida De La Cruzhad three short outings in June and then didn’t appear afterwards, presumably getting hurt but not going on the D/L. A lost season for the 2014 IFA signee, who will turn 22 next year and seems to be far too old for the GCL. Outlook for Next Season: GCL bullpen/release candidate.

Deibi Yrizarrihad just one 2015 GCL appearance, did not retire a batter, and was released. He posted a 9.08 ERA last year in the GCL and I guess the team had seen enough. Seems like a quick hook though for a guy who they kept hanging around the complex for months. Outlook for Next Season: out of baseball.

The following guys threw a handful of rehab innings and are mentioned only to complete the analysis of everyone who appeared in the GCL this year:

Johansen, RPena, DRamos

The following guys threw a handful of innings before getting quickly promoted to the proper level and are mentioned only to complete the analysis of everyone who appeared in the GCL this year:

Feliz, Howell, Pirro, Brinley, Boghosian, ALee, Peterson

Summary

Not too many pure relievers in the GCL; mostly they’re tandem starters each pitching 3-4 innings per rotation turn. And the Nats treatment of the GCL these days seems to basically be finishing school for their DSL stars since they rarely sign anyone from high school. Nonetheless, I project a ton of guys getting bounced from the Short-A bullpen competition so perhaps that’s who will reside in the GCL next year.

We’re almost through the BBWAA awards; the next off-season deadline is one we talk about every year. According to my handy Off-Season Baseball Calendar 2015-16, teams have until tomorrow 11/20/15 to add players ahead of the rule-5 draft (which occurs the last day of the winter meetings (this year, 12/10/15 in Nashville).

As always, using the indispensable Nationals resource sites Draft tracker and the Big Board, and then looking up candidate acquisitions made via trade, here’s some thoughts on who might merit protection. The quick Rule-5 rules; any college-aged draftee from 2011 or before who isn’t already on the 40-man roster is Rule-5 eligible this coming off season, and any high-school aged draftee from 2010 or before is newly eligible this year.

Newly Eligible 2012 draft College Players this year worth consideration for protection:

Spencer Kieboom: no brainer to add; a catcher, getting noticed by scouts for his game-calling and defense, currently in the AFL.

Brian Rauh: decent season, but still just a high-A/AA guy who had decent numbers this year.

Robert Orlan: only mentioned because he’s lefty, and the team protected a college guy last year (Matt Grace) almost entirely b/c he was lefty.

Ian Dickson: injured half the year, decent to ok in High-A this year, probably not a candidate to protect.

I’m leaving out the following guys who are eligible but are not really protection candidates: Stephen Perez, Craig Manuel, Robert Benincasa, Derek Self, and Ronald Pena. For main reasons why, see my Statistical Review of the 2015 seasons of the 2012 draftees where I delve into each guy’s season and overall prospects at this point in their careers.

Chris Bostick: acquired in trade but originally a HS 2011 draftee. Earned a mid-season promotion from High-A->AA, holding his own in the fall league in a probable Rule-5 consideration audition.

Newly Eligible 2011 signed IFAs under consideration for protection:

Pedro Severino was probably the #1 candidate to be added to the roster ahead of this coming Rule-5 draft before the team just went ahead and put him on the 40-man along with the 9/1/15 roster expansion guys.

Raudy Read: another up and coming IFA catcher who made his way to High-A this year, but may be a year too young to really consider protecting.

Jose Marmolejos-Diaz: Took Hagerstown by storm, definitely getting some notice by prospect mavens and likely viewed as a big part of the farm system. Definitely needs protection.

Gilberto Mendez, part time closer for Harrisburg this year but is undersized and doesn’t have the K/9 rates you’d like to see. But, given the dearth of RH relievers, maybe he’s worth protecting.

Not mentioned: a whole slew of 2011 IFA signings throughout the lower levels of the system. Hector Sylvestre, Brian Mejia, Wilman Rodriguez, Anderson Martinez, Randy Encarnacion probably being the most notable/most accomplished in terms of advancement in the system. None of them are Rule-5 protection candidates.

Minor League Free Agents of Note (this list is available at this link on BaseballAmerica). These are either original draftees of the Nats who have now played in our org for 6 years, or guys who were MLFA signings from last year, or guys who are randomly FAs despite being recent draftees.

Jeff Howell: had pretty good success converting to the mound, moving up our system quickly in 2015. Is he worth protecting?

Matt Purke: still can’t seem to solve AA, maybe its time to cut the cord.

Rule-5 Eligible hold-overs of note:

Matt Skole: I hold out hope that he returns to being the hitting force he once was for this team. But he may have peaked in AAA.

Nicholas Lee: had a nice 2015, got sent to the AFL but has only gotten 4IP of work there. Could pull a “Matt Grace” and get added surprisingly given that he’s a closer-quality lefty reliever, but then again this team now has a surplus of such guys.

Bryan Harper: see Lee but add a level: Harper was quite effective in AA and earned a late season promotion to AAA. Worth protecting?

So, who would I protect? As of today (after yesterday’s outright of David Carpenter), the team has 5 open slots on the 40-man roster to work with.

Locks: Kieboom, Bostick, Marmolejos-Diaz

Maybes: Read, Mendez, Lee, Harper

Thoughts? Opinions? Did I forget anyone and/or am I considering the wrong guys? These IFAs are always iffy in terms of eligibility, and some of the MLFAs are confusing too in terms of their status.

Editor’s update; a mere hours after posting this, the team announced its protections and we were close. They protected Kieboom, Bostick … and Nick Lee. I guess I was being a bit optimistic on Marmolejos-Diaz; it is unlikely that a kid his age and having never played above Low-A would stick on a 25-man roster in this day and age.

For a fun trip down memory lane, here’s the same Rule 5 Protection analysis for 2014, 2013, 2012, 2011, and 2010.

By year, here’s who I predicted we’d add and who we did add. My “predictions” are kind of iffy, because in some cases I clearly hedged in the post and said something like “if it were me I’d add X,Y and Z but I think they’ll only add X and Y.”

Lucas Giolito still leads the line of the Nats 2012 draft class. Photo unk via federalbaseball.com

(Useless blog information: this is my 900th post! And we’ve had nearly 7,500 comments on those posts; that’s fantastic. )

The next in a series: previously we reviewed the 2015 season stats for the 2015 draft class, 2014 draft class, and the 2013 draft class. Like with the 2013 post, this one was easier to do thanks to having done the 2012 guys back in 2013 time-frame. Is it worth going back one or two more draft classes at this point? Maybe not; the 2012 draft class has mostly already been Rule-5 exposed, a good benchmark for prospects to make it or break it in terms of advancement or resignation as “org guy.” I have gone back one more class to 2011 and that’s it, so one more in this series after this.

Web links to use while reading:

Stats are pulled from milb.com and/or fangraphs.com; put the player name into the search bar to get his seasonal stats

The MLB Draft Tracker (which I believe is the best draft tracker out there) is the best place to get draft class information.

TheBaseballCube.com for really obscure stats for players, like college stats for these upper round 30s guys.

Without further ado:

Round 1: (#16 overall) Lucas Giolito HS RH Starting pitcher: 7-7, 3.15 ERA across two levels, starting at HighA and moved up to AA. 131/37 K/BB in 117 IP (21 “starts”) with 1.96/3.18 fip, and .352/.341 babip splits between HighA/AA. A fantastic season for the newly-turned 21-yr old, who dominated HighA before moving up and holding his own in AA for the last two months of the season. All the pre-season talk about how he was going to have “no innings limits” was bunk; he was kept in XST until the first week of May and routinely skipped starts so as to extend him through the whole season while keeping his innings year-over-year increase just below the magical 20% mark (98 IP in 2014, 117 in 2015). He’s now routinely named as either the best or the 2nd best (behind LA’s Julio Urias) pitching prospect in all of baseball. Not much else to say. I’m guessing he starts 2016 in AA, moves to AAA and may even get tapped once he surpasses the Super-2 deadline as an injury fill-in starter in the majors. Look for him to get about 140 innings in 2016 all told (that’s 20% bump from his 2015 117 total). Trending Up.

Round 2: (80) Tony Renda, Coll Jr 2B: .267/.333/.340 in Harrisburg with 15/19 K/BB ratio and 13 SBs in a little less than a half a season in AA before he was traded to the Yankees on 6/11/15 for David Carpenter. Renda had progressed nicely in the system as a defense and speed-first second baseman, but in the immediate seems like he was blocked by Wilmer Difo, perhaps the rising of Chris Bostick and the presence in the majors of three or four different guys who can play an adequate second base. So the team flipped him for something they needed; reliever depth.

Round 3: (111) Brett Mooneyham, Coll Jr LH starting pitcher: was 0-2 with a 6.41 ERA in 19 ineffective innings for LowA Hagerstown before the Nats finally cut the cord and released him on 6/3/15. Mooneyham was in Low-A for the third successive season, having failed to make the cut in Potomac in each of 2013 and 2014. You’d have to say that he’s one of the more higher-profile drafting failures of the Mike Rizzo era. Or maybe not; the team had to go over-slot to sign Giolito and may have skimped for the rest of the draft.

Round 4: (144) Brandon Miller Coll Sr Corner OF: .226/.301/.421 in 59 games with Potomac before voluntarily retiring on 7/10/15. Despite showing some power (he hit 20 homers in the 2013 season), he never really solved HighA and made way in the Potomac outfield for some rising DSL grads.

Round 5: (174) Spencer Kieboom, Coll Jr C: Slashed .248/.344/.346 with 30/36 K/BB in 246 ABs with Potomac, which were incremental steps back from his great low-A numbers in 2014. He missed a good portion of the season with injury (concussion) and is currently playing in the Arizona Fall League to make up for it. He was starting to get some notice in the organization, appearing in the tail end of top-30 prospect lists. Despite his step back in offense, Kieboom has taken a huge step forward in terms of his defense, his play-calling and pitch-framing. Scouting reports on him are glowing in this regard, with most projecting him at worst as a backup catcher in the bigs because of his defensive capability. I think he starts 2016 in AA with an eye towards getting his bat back on track, and if he keeps producing he could soon be a viable alternative to the current catching tandem in the majors. Trending up.

Round 6: (204) Hayden Jennings, HS OF/CF: Released in May 2014 after two years in the GCL with big K numbers.

Round 7: (234) Robert Benincasa, Coll Jr. RH relief pitcher: Just 4 IP for Harrisburg this year until suffering a season-ending injury. He made the AA bullpen out of spring (which is where he ended the 2014 season) and seemed to be in a decent spot but got almost no playing time. Minor league relievers generally don’t get a lot of love from prospect hounds, but in a system where an able-bodied RHP who could throw strikes would have been nice to have in August and September, there’s still opportunity for Benincasa going forward. Trending Steady if he’s healthy, looking at a ST2016 release if not.

Round 8: (264) Stephen Perez, Coll Jr. SS: slashed just .209/.302/.280 with 87/59 K/BB in 435 ABs between Potomac and Harrisburg. 2 homers, 16 steals. Perez broke camp with Harrisburg but couldn’t cut it, hitting just .130 in April before getting dumped back to repeat High-A. In 1300+ career minor league ABs he’s now hitting just .233 and doesn’t seem like he’s long for the organization. As mentioned in this space before, the Nats drafted a ton of college middle infielders in 2015 and Perez may struggle to keep his slot given what’s expected to rise up. Trending down.

Round 9:(294) Derek Self, Coll Sr. RH relief pitcher: 4-5, 3.56 ERA with 45/15 K/BB in 60ip. 3.71 fip, .291 BABIP in Potomac. Broke camp as a member of the AA bullpen but got hit and was dumped back to high-A, where he spent most of the season. This is the third straight year he’s been in Potomac as a college senior draftee; odds are there won’t be a 4th. He may break camp with a full season squad in 2016 but may fall victim to a numbers game once the short-season guys start pushing for promotions. Trending down.

Round 10: (324) Craig Manuel, Coll Sr C: slashed just .206/.276/.242 between three levels but mostly with Potomac. He had just 165 ABs on the year as he served as the backup catcher in High-A. Its his third straight season of essentially being an “old for the level” backup catcher who has struggled to hit the Mendoza Line since leaving Low-A. Its hard to read the tea-leaves on catchers since they’re so scarce, so I won’t summarily pass judgement that Manuel’s time is about to come to an end. He could very well be the backup catcher again in Potomac next year. He is a local guy (born in Rockville, MD though he went to HS in Florida and college in Texas), so perhaps he enjoys playing in the DC area. Otherwise, just based on his offensive numbers I have to say he’s Trending Down.

Round 11: (354) Brian Rauh, Coll Jr RH starter/reliever: 4-7, 3.39 ERA with 84/24 K/BB ratio in 101 innings (18 starts) across *four* different levels. 2.61/4.95 fip in Potomac/Harrisburg where he spent the most time this year. Rauh had a nice tour of the system this year, starting in High-A (he was the #2 opening day starter), getting hurt, doing some rehab in the GCL, then working his way back up the chain from Low-A to High-A to AA. He ended the year in Harrisburg’s rotation, for what its worth. He didn’t entirely impress at AA but had an incrementally better season in High-A. My guess is that he starts the 2016 season in the AA rotation, but he has to show he’s worthy in AA. Trending Steady.

Round 12: (384) Carlos Lopez, Coll Sr 1B: Slashed just .138/.265/.241 in 10 games in Hagerstown before being released on 6/30/15. This was the third straight season that Lopez featured in Hagerstown, having spent the first two months of the season in XST after getting beat out for the 1B job in the spring. Eventually there just was no more room for Lopez, with uber prospect Jose Marmolejos-Diaz soon taking over at 1B in Hagerstown and slugging 11 homers in a half-season.

Round 13: (414) Elliott Waterman, Coll Jr LH reliever: Struggled in two Short-A stints and was released on 3/15/14 prior to the beginning of the 2014 season when he couldn’t break into a full-season bullpen.

Round 14: (444) Jordan Poole, Juco-2 corner OF: Similarly to Waterman above, Poole struggled to hit in two seasons shuttling between Short-A and GCL, and the Nats released him on 3/14/14 when he wasn’t set to make a full season roster.

Round 15: (474) Brandon Smith, OF:Didn’t sign. Attending Division II Grand Canyon University, where he remains today. He hit a robust .348/.402/.478 for them this season but was not drafted as a draft-eligible junior. Maybe the Nats take a flier on him in a late round since they love doing re-drafts on late-round HS picks.

Round 16: (504) Ronald Pena, Juco-2 RH starter/reliever: threw just four rehab innings in 2015, spending the entire season on the Potomac Disabled List. He was coming off a season where he had a 5.96 ERA in High-A and needed 2015 to show he could make the jump. My guess is that he’ll get another shot at being the Potomac swing-man in 2016 but he may struggle to make the squad, given the huge number of college arms pushing into the system year after year. Trending Down.

Round 17: (534) Blake Schwartz, Coll Sr RH Starting pitcher: 0-2, 5.87 ERA in 3 Potomac starts and then he called it quits, officially retiring on 4/24/15. Schwartz was *so good* in 2013 for Potomac (11-4, 2.65 ERA) then struggled in AA before getting hurt in 2014 and missing half the season. I thought the retirement was surprising; maybe his 2014 injury just killed his arm and with it his career. Too bad; he was looking like a fantastic low-round find.

Round 18: (564) David Fischer, Coll Sr RH reliever: Released on 7/3/14 after bouncing around the system for a couple of years.

Round 19: (594) Bryan Lippincott, Coll Sr 1B: Retired ahead of the 2014 season after one decent season in Short-A.

Round 20: (624) James Brooks, Coll SR SS/3B: Released May 2013; he was a senior sign who played last season mostly in the GCL, save for a 2 week stretch where he went 1-32 in Short-A.

Round 21: (654) Austin Chubb, Coll Sr C: Released ahead of the 2015 season after struggling to a .221/.299/.324 line in Hagerstown in 2014. Signed as a MLFA with Los Angeles and bounced around their farm system this year, missing huge chunks of the season with injury. Backup Catchers can live forever.

Round 25: (774) Freddy Avis, RHP: didn’t sign. Attending Stanford, where in 2013 he appeared in exactly one game and pitched 2 innings before suffering a season-ending injury. That injury never got better and he retired from baseball altogether in March of 2015. Shame.

Round 26: (804) Skye Bolt, RHP: didn’t sign. Attended UNC, had an excellent college career and was a 4th round pick in 2015 by the Oakland A’s. He kind of reminds me of our 2015 pick Andrew Stevenson frankly; kind of an odd swing, defense-first speedy outfielder with limited power.

Round 29: (894) Leonard “LJ” Hollins, Juco RH reliever: released 7/2/14 after struggling for half a season in Hagerstown.

Round 30: (924) Robert Orlan Coll Jr LH Starter: 3-1, 3.00 ERA with 85/28 K/BB ratio in 72 relief IP between LowA and HighA. Orlan bounced between Potomac and Hagerstown all season, ending up in HighA with pretty good numbers in a “more than a loogy” role. Especially impressive is 85 Ks in just 72 ip. He’s older for these levels, inarguably, but could put himself in a good position by continuing to succeed in 2016. I see him in the Potomac bullpen again with an eye towards a June promotion to AA when the short-season promotions come due. Trending Steady.

Round 31: (954) Michael Boyden Coll Sr RH reliever: Released Jan 2014 after struggling for two years in Rookie ball as a college senior sign.

Round 36: Max Ungar, C: didn’t sign. Attending Division III Denison, where he did not seem to even be playing.

Round 37: Tyler Watson, LHP: didn’t sign. Attended Kansas U for a year, then bounced to McLennan Community College in Waco, TX and and got drafted by the Angels in the 38th round of the 2014 draft. This is *not* the same Tyler Watson, by the way, that the Nats drafted in the 2015 draft.

Round 38: Jarred Messer, RHP: didn’t sign. Pitched the last two years with the Kansas City T-Bones in the independent American Association

Round 39: Mitchell Williams, C: didn’t sign. Attended the Marion Military Institute in Alabama, for which I cannot find any current stats.

Round 40: Ricky Gutierrez, CF: didn’t sign. Presumably playing football for U-Conn, as per the Draft Tracker.

Three years onward, there’s just 10 of the 40 names left active somewhere in the minors. 11 never signed and another 19 have been released or retired. We cashed in Renda on a middle reliever who subsequently got hurt, and this class has one of the best 2 or 3 prospects in the game. Otherwise … there’s just not much there. It seems likely that the Nats 2012 class is going to end up producing just two MLB players; a near Ace and possibly a backup Catcher. Maybe one of the trending steady middle relievers can make a run ala Aaron Barrett. Otherwise, is this class a disappointment?

The title of my previous post was pretty simple: “Nats 2014 Draft == failure.” And it resulted in a rather spirited debate in the comments about the 2014 draft, the 2008 draft in hindsight, etc.

In that debate, I postulated my benchmarks for judging whether or not a team’s draft was “good” or not. Here were the six guidelines I stated for judgement, going round by round/section by section in the draft:

a. 1st rounder: future MLB above average regular to all-star

b. 2nd rounder: future MLB regular

c. 3rd-5th: expect at least one future MLB player in at least a backup/bullpen role

d. 6th-10th: hope for at least one player to reach the MLB level.

e. 11th-20th: hope for at least three players who matriculate to AA or higher

f. 20th and above: hope for one-two players to matriculate to AA or higher

Lets go back through all 10 Nats drafts and see whether these guidelines hold up. For each of the 6 requirements, we’ll give a quick “yes/no the condition was met” for each year. Critical to this analysis is the Nats DraftTracker XLS, milb.com and baseball-reference.com for searching for old players. Also useful is the Baseball America executive database, which populated the staff in charge of each draft.

Editors Note post-posting: I’ve added in the total known bonus amounts, per suggestion in the comments. Data taken from the Draft Tracker. Actual figures are likely higher because most bonus figures past the 10th round are unknown (but likely minimal). Also per good suggestion, I’m adding in the draft position for context, since its far easier to get a future all-star if picking in the top 5 versus later on.

d. Yes: 6th rounder Marco Estrada has turned into a decent starter (albeit for someone else after we released him)

e. Yes: 11th rounder John Lannan and 12th rounder Craig Stammen turned into MLBers, far above expectations here. 18th rounder Tim Pahuta had long ML career for us, playing 3 years at AA.

f. Yes: 33rd rounder Ryan Butcher was a 6yr MLFA who left the org but now has MLB experience with Atlanta. No other 20th+ round draftees made it out of A-ball, but Butcher’s MLB matriculation makes up for it.

2005: Success, inarguably. 6 guys matriculating to the majors is a winning draft, especially considering the lack of a 2nd or 3rd round pick, the ownership confusion, and the budget restrictions put on the team.

a. No: 1st rounder Chris Marrero looks like a 4-a guy at best and 1st rounder Colten Willems never made it above A-ball.

b. No: the team failed to sign 2nd rounder Sean Black and 2nd rounder Stephen Englund never made it out of low-A.

c. No: none of their 3rd-5th picks made the majors. The highest one of these guys got was 5th rounder Corey VanAllen, who did pitch in AAA after passing through the rule-5 draft and finished out his 6-years with the org. VanAllen is in Indy ball in 2014.

d. No: they didn’t even sign their 7th, 9th or 10th round picks. The closest they got to a MLBer here was 6th rounder Zech Zinicola, who played at AAA for quite a while, was rule-5 picked and returned, and now sits in Baltimore’s AA team.

e. Yes: 12th rounder Cole Kimball made it the majors briefly, while 17th rounder Erik Arnesen, 18th rounder Adam Carr and 13th rounder Hassan Pena all toiled in AAA for several years.

f. Yes, sort of. We’re all well aware of the success of 41st rounder Brad Peacock, but he was picked under the “draft-and-follow” system that no longer exists. So while yes it was a 41st round pick, in our current system Peacock wouldn’t have been picked at all and/or wouldn’t have signed but would have been picked the subsequent year based on his great first-college juco season. Of the rest of the 20th+ round picks, one guy had a couple months in AA (26th rounder Brett Logan) to serve as a backup catcher; he hit .102/.170/.122 in 20 games in 2007 and was released.

2006: Failure: 3 guys who have MLB appearances but near zero impact for this team. Peacock enabled the Nats to get Gio Gonzalez but I think we see now that Peacock wasn’t the driving prospect in that deal (now that Derek Norris has made an all-star team).

For as much as went right for the team in the 2005 draft, it went wrong in 2006. Was the lack of signing their 7th, 9th and 10th round picks evident of “fiscal restraint” demanded by the other 29 owners? Clearly to me, the focus on HS drafted personnel in this draft has Bowden’s hands all over it, and almost none of them panned out in the slightest.

a. No: The team went one-for-three on its first rounders: Michael Burgess got to AA in his fourth pro season but never further, was flipped for Tom Gorzelanny. Josh Smoker‘s failure has been well documented here. But Ross Detwiler, for all the complaining about his usage and role in this space, did make the majors and looked like a good 4th starter (in 2012). I still believe he could start in this league and is better than a long-man. However, the condition is that a first round pick turns into a successful regular, and this crop failed in all regards.

b. Yes. 2nd rounder Jordan Zimmermann is now a 2-time all-star and is probably the best 2nd round pick the organization has ever had. His successes make up for their other 2nd rounder Jake Smolinksi who has made his MLB debut but not until he became a 6-yr MLFA.

c. Yes. 4th rounder Derek Norris made the 2014 all-star team for Oakland. 3rd rounder Stephen Souza has debuted in the majors and looks quite promising (albeit blocked) for our AAA team. 5th rounder Brad Meyers toiled for us in AAA for years before being released this spring after a long injury recovery.

d. Yes: 10th round pick Patrick McCoy made it to AAA for us, signed with Detroit as a MLFA and debuted this year. We should note for the record though that 6th rounder Jack McGeary was paid as if he was a low-1st rounder and failed pretty spectacularly here.

e. Yes: 20th rounder Jeff Mandel was a long-serving org arm at AA and AAA. 11th rounder Bill Rhinehart was looking like a find, appearning on Nats system prospect lists for a while and getting to AAA before getting flipped for Jonny Gomes.

f. Yes: 28th rounder Boomer Whiting made it to Syracuse before getting released in 2011. 48th rounder (!) Kyle Gunderson was flipped for Logan Kensing in 2009 and made it to Miami/Florida’s AAA squad before getting released.

2007: Success: despite the 1st round failures and the McGeary disaster, the breadth of success in the other categories and the production of the remaining guys weighs out.

a. No: as is well documented, the Nats failed to sign 1st round pick Aaron Crow.

b. No/Inc: 2nd round pick Destin Hood has already passed through Rule-5 waivers once, but has found himself in 2014 and is hitting great for Syracuse (2014’s AAA line: .308/.353/.502). It does make one wonder if he’s worth adding to the 40-man once the season is over to keep him; he’s finishing his 7th pro year and is in line for minor league free agency.

c. Yes: 3rd rounder Danny Espinosa has his critics, but he’s at least a MLB backup or possibly more. 5th rounder Adrian Nieto has stuck with the White Sox after getting plucked in the Rule-5 draft last year and hasn’t been half bad.

d. Yes: 10th rounder Tommy Milone has shown his capabilities as a MLB starter. d. 6th-10th: hope for at least one player to reach the MLB level. 6th rounder Paul Demny remains in the system (on the D/L in Harrisburg) but doesn’t seem like he’ll go much higher at this point.

e. Yes: 16th rounder Tyler Moore has put in meaningful at-bats for the Nats for a few years now. And 19th rounder Steve Lombardozzi looks to be a solid utility/backup infielder in this league for years. Lastly I wonder if the team gave up on 15th rounder J.P. Ramirez too soon; he was paid like a 2nd round pick but was released prior to his MLFA period. He may have only made it to high-A, but his last season was somewhat decent.

f. No: as far as I can tell, nobody of note came in rounds 20 or above from this draft.

2008: Failure: How would you judge this draft? We failed to sign the first rounder, which for me is a huge negative. The second rounder may or may not ever debut in the majors, which is also for me a huge negative because of the huge prevalence of 1st and 2nd rounders on MLB rosters. But we got four (5 counting Nieto) other MLBers out of the rest of the draft, including some very deep-dive picks that you rarely find (Moore and Lombardozzi, aside from Peacock, are the two lowest round picks to ever make it to the majors for this team).

a. Yes: no arguing about either first round pick here: both Stephen Strasburg and Drew Storen have pitched at all-star levels in their careers.

b. No: 2nd Rounder Jeff Kobernus may have made his MLB debut, but he’s nowhere close to being a “regular” in the majors right now and doens’t seem to be trending that way either.

c. No: 3rd round pick Trevor Holder was a gross over-draft (albeit with known reasons; the team committed an *awful* lot of money to the first two guys on this list) and was released in 2013. 4th rounder A.J. Morris looked quite promising for us, was flipped in the Gorzelanny deal, and this year is pitching effectively for Pittsburgh’s AAA squad after being taken in the minor league Rule-5 portion last off-season. And the Nats failed to sign their 5th rounder. So even if Morris pans out as a MLB-capable player, he’s doing it for someone else.

d. Yes: 9th round pick Taylor Jordan was effective for the team last year and may yet figure in the team’s plans despite his mysterious D/L trip right now. And 6th round pick Michael Taylor has rocketed up the prospect lists for this team, is crushing AA pitching right now, is on the team’s 40-man roster and may very well get a look as 2015’s starting center fielder.

e. Yes: 12th rounder Nathan Karns made the org look quite intelligent when he gave spot starts in 2013 after rocketing up the farm system after finally recovering from arm issues. I wonder if the success they had with Karns was the first impetus for Rizzo to take more gambles on high-end-but-injured arms. 13th rounder Patrick Lehman has bounced around as an org arm for years. 11th rounder Juston Bloxom played a couple years in AA before getting released this year. 16th rounder Sean Nicol is splitting time between AA and AAA this year. Finally, I wanted to note something I never knew before studying this: the Nats drafted Marcus Strohman in the 18th round out of HS; this is the same Strohman who went in the first round three years later to Toronto and who is currently holding down a rotation spot for the playoff-pushing Blue Jays. Wow. He’s listed as a SS on the draft-tracker but clearly is a MLB-calibre starter.

f. Yes: 22nd rounder Danny Rosenbaum has been Syracuse’s “ace” for three seasons now. And a slew of guys drafted in the 20s stuck around for years as middle relievers (Mitchell Clegg, Matt Swynenberg, Evan Bronson, Rob Wort, and Shane McCatty). You just can’t ask for more out of your picks in rounds 20-30.

2009: Success: I’ll take a couple of misses in the 2nd and 3rd rounds given the amount of talent they picked up in the middle and late rounds. Great draft. 6 guys who have debuted in the majors with at least another one likely coming soon.

Note: from 2010 onwards, most of the judgement calls are still “in progress.” We’ll use projections and “small sample sizes” to pass judgement. It is what it is. Feel free to criticize in the comments about using projections and national pundit scouting reports to make judgements.

a. Yes: 1st rounder Bryce Harper has turned into everything the hype suggested. Fun fact; when he went on an rehab assignment in Potomac, he was the 2nd youngest guy on the roster. Remember that when you criticize the guy for not being better than he already is: if he was “playing by the rules,” he’d be jsut finishing his junior year of college.

b. No/Inc: 2nd rounder Sammy Solis has been one injury issue after another. He missed all of 2012 with Tommy John, came back slowly in 2013, but now sits on the AA D/L with another “elbow” issue. He was protected on the 40-man roster last fall, but you have to wonder what’s to come of him. He’s finishing his 5th pro season and he’s got exactly one start above A-Ball.

c. Yes/Inc: 4th rounder A.J. Cole was paid like a late first rounder, and after some struggles he’s really come onto the scene this year. He was already really young for AA and “solved” it, and is now in AAA holding his own. The other guys in this category are less impressive: both Rick Hague and Jason Martinson are repeating AA and not really hitting well enough to push for promotions. This could be a side-effect of the huge amount of money committed to Harper and Cole.

d. Yes: 9th round pick Aaron Barrett went from unknown/unrecognized prospect to the Nats 40-man roster last fall to being lights-out middle reliever in the major league pen this year. As a 9th round college senior pick. 8th rounder Matthew Grace may be next; after toiling as a mediocre starter, he became a reliever in 2013 and has been lights out in AA and AAA this year. And he’s not just a LOOGY: 56 IP in 33 appearances and he’s given up just 6 ER in that time.

e. Yes: 15th round pick David Freitas, after getting traded to Oakland for Kurt Suzuki, got traded again to Baltimore and now is in AAA. 12th round pick Robbie Ray has made his MLB debut for Detroit after going over in the Doug Fister deal. 11th rounder Neil Holland toils in the Harrisburg pen admirably.

f. Yes: 23rd rounder Colin Bates and 26th rounder Christopher Manno both are in the Harrisburg pen. 22nd rounder Cameron Selik made it to AA before hitting his ceiling and being released earlier this year. And 32nd rounder Randolph Oduber is a starting OF in Potomac with decent splits and a shot of moving up.

2010: Success: It may have been a no-brainer to take Harper, and it may have been an example of the “checkbook” winning in their picks of Cole and Ray, but you have to hand it to this team; they bought two high-end prep guys out of their college and they’re both looking like huge successes. And they got a MLB servicable reliever out of a college senior sign who they paid just $35,000 in bonus money. Great work.

a. Yes: 1st rounder Anthony Rendon was on everyone’s “all star snub” lists this year, while their other 1st rounder Alex Meyer remains one of the top pitching prospects in the game and seems likely to debut later this year. Their supp-1st rounder Brian Goodwin remains on every pundit’s prospect lists even if he seemingly has been passed on the organizational “future starting Center-fielder” depth chart. There’s no chance the team leaves him exposed in the upcoming rule-5 draft, so he’ll have at least three more years to prove he belongs.

b. n/a: forfeited for Adam LaRoche signing.

c. No/Inc: Right now our 3rd through 5th picks are looking iffy; 4th rounder Matthew Purke was paid like an upper first rounder and has been a massive disappointment. Right now he’s recovering from Tommy John and faces an uncertain future. 4th rounder Kylin Turnbull has gotten lit up in high-A this year, his second crack at the league. 5th rounder Matt Skole may be the most promising of the bunch; he crushed 27 homers in his first season of full-season ball only to miss all of 2013 because of a freak injury. Can Skole continue developing and make the majors on a full-time basis? Can Purke at this point?

d. Yes: With the call-up of 6th rounder Taylor Hill earlier this year, this category is met. Which is good because the rest of the 6th-10th rounders from this year are struggling. Two are already released/retired, one is MIA and the lone remaining active player (Brian Dupra) is struggling as a starter/swing-man in AA. But Hill is a huge win; a college senior draftee on minimal bonus rocketing through the minors and forcing his way onto the 25-man roster.

e. Yes/Inc: It is far too early to fully judge this category, but it is looking promising despite the fact that the team failed to sign SIX of its ten picks beween the 11th and 20th round. 11th rounder Caleb Ramsey is already in AA. 16th rounder Deion Williams is on the mound (not a SS as in the Draft Tracker) and is struggling in short-A. 18th rounder Nick Lee is struggling in Potomac this year but has shown a huge arm and seems like he’ll eventually convert to loogy (especially considering his undersized stature); I can see Lee making it far as a matchup lefty reliever with swing-and-miss stuff. The lone failure at this point is 12th rounder Blake Monar, sort of inexplicably released after a decent 2012 season in Short-A.

f. Yes: 30th round pick Bryan Harper earned his way to Harrisburg. 45th round college senior pick Richie Mirowski also made it to AA, where he wasn’t half bad last year, though at the moment he’s back in Potomac. And there’s three other players drafted in the 20th or higher who are active on Potomac’s roster this year and who may get moved up. Decent production out of the bottom of this draft so far.

2011: Projected Success: As discussed before, I believe the selection of Rendon was a “no-brainer” based on a unique set of circumstances that occured on draft day, but credit the management team for having the stones to pick him when other GMs didn’t. I’m sure the Mariners (especially) would like a re-do on that draft (they picked 2nd overall, got soft-tossing local product Danny Hultzen, who was sidelined last year with all sorts of shoulder issues and is no sure bet to ever make it back. They rolled the dice with Purke and so far seem to be losing, but Purke was himself a 1-1 talent at one point (remember, he had his $4M+ deal with Texas pulled thanks to MLB-stewardship at the time) and was probably worth the risk. I’d like to see Skole reach the majors in some capacity before declaring this draft a full success.

Note: from here onwards, everything is a projection and is based on scouting the stat lines. I’m going to sound negative where others sound positive and vice versa. Hey, its better than writing nothing.

a. Yes/inc: 1st rounder Lucas Giolito (so far) has shown himself to be at full speed post TJ surgery and is mostly in the top 10-15 of every professional scouting pundit’s list for best prospect in the entirety of the minors. He’s got a #1 starter ceiling, a huge frame and three plus pitches. He’s projecting to be everything you’d hope for from an upper first rounder.

b. No/inc: It is hard to squint at 2nd rounder Tony Renda at this point and project him as a future “MLB regular.” Sure he’s hitting .297 in Potomac, and sure his numbers at the plate have not varied much in his three pro seasons. Unfortunately he’s vastly undersized and he has no power in a time where pro middle infielders are expected to provide serious pop. Maybe he can forge a career like Jamey Carroll or like a Jose Altuve, but the odds are against him. I don’t mean to discount the guy because he’s 5’8″ but we all know there’s a significant bias in the industry towards undersized guys. Heck, a pitcher is considered “short” if he isn’t 6’2″ these days.

c. No/inc: So far the guys picked 3rd-5th are also struggling. 3rd rounder Brett Mooneyham‘s struggles are well documented here. 4th rounder Brandon Miller continues to show great power but has missed much of this season with a hamstring injury (he’s on rehab in the GCL as we speak). Lastly 5th rounder Spencer Keiboom suffered a blown UCL that basically cost him the whole 2013 season. He’s got great numbers in low-A this year but is two years too old for the league. Keiboom’s talents more centered on his defense than his bat, so he may still push forward as a future backup catcher. But until he does, this category falls in the “no” side.

d. Maybe/inc: The leading hope for some MLB success out of our 6th-10th round picks right now resides in one of two middle relievers: 7th round pick Robert Benincasa or 9th round pick Derek Self. You never know; one of these guys could turn into the next Aaron Barrett. 8th round SS Stephen Perez made the all-star team this year in Potomac and could feature as a future utility infielder. The team has already released its 6th round pick Hayden Jennings, and their 10th rounder (local Rockville product Craig Manual) was a college senior catcher who is backing up other catchers in the system for the time being). He may continue to hang around but unless he gets a starting gig he’s going to get replaced by someone newer.

e. Yes/inc: 17th rounder Blake Schwartz has already made it to AA, where he struggled and he now sits back in Potomac (where he was great last year, go figure). 11th rounder Brian Rauh got a spot-start in AA last year but has bounced in and out of the Potomac rotation this year. 16th rounder Ronald Pena is working his way off injury but faces a long road to move up thanks to a lack of swing-and-miss stuff. The team has already released four of its 11th-20th round picks; the remaining out-field players (12th rounder Carlos Lopez and 19th rounder Bryan Lippincott) both seem to face long odds as college senior draftees still residing in the low minors to even make it up to AA at this point. To be fair, Lopez missed most of 2013 with an unknown injury, so we’ll give him a slight pass. Lippincott sits in XST right now.

f. No/inc: 33rd rounder Mike McQuillan has hung around and currently serves as a utility guy/bench player for Potomac. A couple of relievers remain on squads: 29th rounder Leonard Hollins is hurt but is on a full-season squad, and 30th rounder Robert Orlan was with Hagerstown to start the season but is back in Auburn. The rest of the 20th round and up guys features carnage; eight college senior draftees already released to go along with 10 unsigned (mostly high schoolers) picks in the later rounds. One unsigned pick looks interesting; all-american freshman UNC player Skye Bolt may be a big-time 2015 draft pick. But otherwise, I’m predicting that we dont’ get even a AA player out of the last 20 rounds of this draft at this point.

2012: Projected Failure: Frankly, this is looking like it may be a one player draft. At this point, I don’t think you can look at *any* other player in this draft and project even a bench/fringe 25-man roster guy besides Giolito. Now ask yourself: if Giolito fulfills expectations and becomes an “ace,” a top 15-20 arm in the majors while the rest of this draft basically becomes high-A and AA filler, does that change your opinion of the draft success/failure?

a. n/a: No 2013 first rounder thanks to the supurfluous signing of Rafael Soriano. As noted at the time, the Nats missed out on players like Sean Manaea, Ryan Stanek or Ian Clarkin, all of whom were available at the time of their lost 1st rounder. Manaea in particular has flourished, rising up prospect list charts and sporting a healthy K/9 rate in high-A this year. I’d like to call this in and among itself a failure (given my reservations about paying for saves in general), but have to admit that Soriano has been pretty durn good this year.

b. No/inc: 2nd rounder Jake Johansen thus far has not lived up to advance billing in his first year in full-season ball. He’s averaging just 4.5 innings per outing and sports a 5.00 ERA and less than a K/inning. I can understand the difficult adjustment to pro ball, but I don’t get how his vaunted velocity and size combination aren’t resulting in more swing-and-miss. He’s given no indication that he can avoid what scouts have been saying all along (that he’s destined for the bullpen), he’s way too wild and way too hittable.

c. Yes/inc: the Nats collection of 3rd rounder Drew Ward, 4th rounder Nick Pivetta and now especially 5th rounder Austin Voth are making this management team look very smart. All Voth has done since forcing his promotion to High-A is give up 10 hits and ONE earned run in 33 innings over five starts. That’s just ridiculous. And he’s doing it while maintaining a 36/5 K/BB ratio. There’s zero reason for him to still be in Potomac at this point. I don’t know what Voth’s ceiling is, but its getting pushed.

d. No/inc: Thanks to the new CBA’s rules, most 6th-10th rounders are throw-away/college senior picks these days. So it’ll be awfully hard to depend on one of them turning into a 25-man roster guy. The best bet out of this draft will be having either 6th rounder Cody Gunter or 7th rounder James Yezzo eventually matriculating to the majors. The other guys in this category were 15k bonus college seniors, one of whom (9th rounder Jake Joyce has *already* been released). Do we think either Gunter or Yezzo projects as a major leaguer? Not right now: Gunter’s struggling in short-A for the 2nd year in a row and Yezzo is an undersized 1B showing little power.

e. Maybe/inc: Right now the pickings for the guys taken 11th-20th look pretty slim too. Three were senior signs who have already been released and we failed to sign our 16th round pick Willie Allen (though can’t fault the Nats for that: doing research on him for last year’s draft review showed all sorts of inconsistencies with him, including whether he’s even still playing baseball in college). But 11th rounder John Simms is looking like a great find; he’s already in the AA rotation and holding his own (though you could argue it was out of need, not performance). Among those left, 10th rounder Brandon Middleton and 15th rounder Isaac Ballou are starting and playing well in Hagerstown, 12th rounder Andrew Cooper is strugging in low-A, 13th rounder John Costa has yet to debut for the team thanks to TJ surgery, and 17th rounder Geoffrey Perrott was a senior catcher who got a grand total of 13 at-bats in 2013 and has remained in XST so far thisyear, perhaps to serve as a bullpen catcher for others remaining in Viera and perhaps because he was hurt most of last year and may still be recovering. If Simms continues to rise and we get a couple more longer-lasting prospects out of this crew, we’ll convert this to a success.

f. Maybe/Inc: The Nats picked seven college seniors in the 21st round or above and so far they’re all with Hagerstown. Middle infielders Cody Dent (22nd rounder) and Willie Medina (31st rounder) both hit in the .220s last year, are hitting in the .220s (or worse) this year, and seem like they may not last the season. However the pitchers in this bunch are looking better and better. 28th rounder Joey Webb has a 2.53 ERA, 30th rounder Ryan Ullmann has as 3.10 ERA and got a high-A up-and-back call-up, and 34th rounder Jake Walsh dominated Low-A and earned a call-up to Potomac. Only 29th rounder Michael Sylvestri seems to be in trouble among these senior signs; after struggling in Short-A last year, he gave up a ton of runs in 6 mid-relief outings and is currently in re-assignment purgatory. What of the non senior-signs? 24th round pick Matthew Derosier is struggling in short-A and 23rd round outfielder Garrett Gordon seems like he’s a bench player in Auburn. But a revelation may be 25th round prep draft pick Travis Ott. He holds a 2.10 ERA through 6 starts in Auburn despite being quite young for the league. So, the trend seems good that we’ll get value out of the bottom part of this draft.

2013: Projected Failure: Sorry to say; no first rounder, a middle reliever out of your 2nd rounder, perhaps a 5th starter out of the 3-5 rounds, and some org filler from the bottom of the draft? How many players from this draft do you realistically project to make the majors?

a. Maybe/inc: 1st rounder Erick Fedde may project as a MLB rotation guy, but he’s not projecting as an ace level arm. So if he comes back from surgery 100%, if he keeps moving up the chain, if he makes the majors and if he has an impact we’ll give this a yes. Lots of ifs.

b. n/a: we failed to sign our 2nd rounder Andrew Suarez.

c. Maybe/inc: The hopes here fall on 3rd rounder Jakson Reetz and 4th rounder Robbie Dickey, since our 5th rounder was a senior lefty out of non-baseball powerhouse Duke. How do we dream on Reetz and Dickey? Maybe Reetz turns into our next Derek Norris while Dickey turns into the next Austin Voth. Lets hope so, because both so far have had rather inauspicious starts in the GCL (Reetz batting .220 and Dickey posting an ERA in the 12s). To be fair Reetz is a kid and Dickey isn’t much older, so we have a long way to go before passing true judgement.

d. No/inc: We failed to sign the 8th round pick Austin Byler (and from reading the tea leaves, it didn’t seem like we were ever even close). Our 7th, 8th and 10th round picks were low-bonus college seniors with little hope of advancing. So this category falls squarely on the shoulders of 6th rounder Austin Williams, who looks ok so far in Short-A.

e. Far too Early: most of these guys who did sign are 15 games into short seasons.

f. Far too Early: most of these guys who did sign are 15 games into short seasons.

2014: Not promising: An injured first rounder, no 2nd rounder, really just a handful of non senior-signs elsewhere in the draft. As I opined in the previous post discussion, I just don’t like the looks of this class.

So. 5200 words later, I think I actually like my guidelines. I think though that the new CBA forces teams into making a bunch of “throw-away” picks in the 6th-10th rounds, so my criteria needs to be adjusted downward for that category in the last few years. Otherwise I think it holds.

What say you?

Editor’s Post-posting thoughts. Based on the analysis above, the franchise has 5 successes and 5 failures (or projected failures) in ten drafts. After up and down drafts the first four years, we had three straight successes in 2009-2011, but now I feel like we’ve had three successive failures from 2012 onwards. Here’s a sobering thought about those successes and failures: lets talk about bonus money spent.

In the 5 drafts I call successes, the team spent (chronologically): $3,990,500, $7,619,300, $18,806,000, $11,413,200 and $11,325,000 in bonus money.

Era 1 may be just the way it used to go; sometimes you’d get wins in the draft, other times you’d strike out. Era 2 was the glory years of Nats drafting, though the cynic may point out that picking three consensus 1-1 talents and spending 8 figures in bonus money wasn’t that hard. Era 3 is more troubling: why has this management team not done better in the CBA/limited bonus era?

Austin Voth was great last year and has been good this year. Photo via mlbdirt

We’re a month into the minor league season and nearly five turns through each minor league system rotation, so lets take a look to see how our starters are doing.

As with the major league rotation review, I’ve assigned grade letters to roughly judge each start done by our minor league staff, and then i’ve tacked on their overall stats for context. Note that I generally give grades to those that get the starts in games, as well as those who pitch “starter length” outings. You’ll see this much more frequently in the low-A section, where Hagerstown clearly has a “two-starter” system going for many of its guys; one guy will throw 5 innings, then the next guy throws 4. So nearly the entire Hagerstown roster is getting “starter grades” right now. I should also caveat that this analysis is “scouting the box score” analysis; I’ve not had a chance to see any of these guys in person, so I can’t comment on the luck factor involved with anyone (stats versus ability) other than inference analysis between ERA and FIP.

For each team I’ll list the current rotation as best as I can make it, then have a second section where we list the guys with spot-starts or who were in the rotation but are no longer (D/L trips, promoted, demoted, etc). Then we’ll discuss, and then list those guys who are pushing for promotions and those guys who are in jeopardy of getting demoted (or, worse, released).

(Note: I wouldn’t be able to do this data tracking or this post without the great daily work by Luke Erickson at www.nationalsprospects.com.) All stats here are as of 5/2/14, which means I grabbed one May start’s worth of stats for a couple of guys here and there.

AAA/Syracuse:

Pitcher

Start Trend Line

W/L

ERA

Whip

FIP

K/BB Ratio

# of innings

Apps/Starts

Roenicke

A (3ip),F,B

0-2

5.84

1.54

4.10

7/7

12

5/3

Tatusko

A/short,B-,B+,A,B

1-3

2.36

0.83

3.87

15/7

26.2

5/5

Treinen

A-> upandback,C/short,B+

0-0

0.87

1.16

3.58

8/5

10.1

3/3

Hill

A,A+,C,A,C

3-1

2.35

0.91

3.68

29/4

30.2

5/5

Poveda

F,F,A,F

1-3

9.82

2.07

5.13

12/10

18.1

4/4

Laffey

A (took Treinen’s spot),A+,D+

2-0

1.80

0.67

1.92

14/2

15

3/1

Rosenbaum

D,A,C-,D/inc (injury)->D/L

1-1

4.50

1.35

4.18

9/5

20

4/4

Rotation Discussion:

A month in and the Syracuse Chiefs are mired in last place (though to be fair, only 3 games separate the entire division). Opening day starter Danny Rosenbaum is already on the D/L with a possible torn UCL, possibly the latest in an epidemic of Tommy John surgeries throughout baseball (there’s been at least 14 MLB pitchers to go under the knife for this already in 2014 and quite a few more minor leaguers; I have a draft post on this topic coming). His replacement in the rotation is journeyman and Ian Desmond-relative Josh Roenicke, who has struggled in his spot-start duties. However, Roenicke isn’t the least effective starter in AAA; that distinction goes to late spring training acquisition Omar Poveda, who has gotten pretty well battered so far in his four starts. One of these two guys likely is making way for recently demoted Taylor Jordan (well, assuming Jordan even makes it to AAA anytime soon; Doug Fister‘s return is complicated by the Nats needing another starter in-between; Jordan likely is sitting in AAA limbo until tuesday 5/6, then will settle into the AAA rotation).

Meanwhile, we’re seeing excellent springs so far out of Ryan Tatusko, Blake Treinen (albeit in a SSS thanks to his being bounced up and down out of the Nats bullpen), Aaron Laffey and especially Taylor Hill. Hill’s excellent 29/4 K/BB ratio stands out, as well as his sub 1.00 whip so far in 5 starts. I think its fair to say that nobody expected him to have rocketed up the system like he has, given the fact that he was a college senior draftee with limited bonus and limited leverage. I think its also worth noting Tatusko’s production in a swing-man role; quite similarly to his trade-mate Tanner Roark, he continues to produce at an advanced/MLFA age … could he be another “found gold” pitcher in our upper farm system?

We should also note that we have yet to see Brad Meyers, who remains on the D/L and has only thrown about 6 professional innings since 2011.

Bullpen Notables

The Syracuse bullpen has seen plenty of traffic to and from the majors: Aaron Barrett started in the majors and has seen time in Syracuse. Ryan Mattheus and Xavier Cedeno have already both been up and back. Nobody in the pen has much more than about 10 innings pitched, so we won’t make too many rash judgements. So far Christian Garcia looks decent; his 12/2 K/BB ratio in 10 innings is promising but he currently sits on the D/L with an unspecified injury. Meanwhile Daniel Stange has struggled with his control; he has 10 walks in 12 innings. We’ll talk more about bullpen guys deeper into the season.

Most Deserving of a promotion: Hill and perhaps Laffey, both of whom are pitching dominantly right now. But neither are 40-man guys, and that (especially for Laffey) hurts him. Laffey as a starter in AAA has been great, but he might be more useful as a lefty-match up guy. Cedeno has been getting the MLB-bullpen covering call-ups but if Laffey was on the 40-man instead, it probably would have been him instead.

Most in Jeopardy of a demotion/release: Poveda for sure; his cash-only acquisition isn’t looking promising considering that a rotation spot is needed soon for Jordan. Roenicke needs a couple of good outings to get his numbers up; with only 12 innings its hard to pass too harsh a judgement. But, with very little push from the current AA rotation, its hard to see a reason why the organization needs to make a move anytime soon (see the next section for more).

AA/Harrisburg:

Pitcher

Start Trend Line

W/L

ERA

Whip

FIP

K/BB Ratio

# of innings

Apps/Starts

Schwartz

F,F,B+,F,D+

0-4

6.08

1.99

5.1

15/10

23.2

5/5

Rivero

D-,B,B-,F,B+

1-4

5.06

1.69

4.85

13/9

21.1

5/5

Gilliam

F,B-,D,A

0-0

5.09

1.36

6.05

13/9

17.2

5/4

Purke

F,D,F,F

0-5

9.30

2.11

6.55

14/13

20.1

5/5

Cole

B-,A,D,F

2-1

3.63

1.57

2.82

16/4

22.1

5/5

Dupra

B+

1-0

0.00

0.9

4.35

3/3

3.1

1/0

Perry

F -> d/l

0-0

5.63

1.5

3.07

6/3

8

5/0

Jackson

A -> promoted

0-0

0.00

0.52

2.01

7/0

7.2

5/0

Bates

B

0-0

5.68

1.66

2.97

12.2

6/0

Rotation Discussion:

Well, there’s not much joy in Harrisburg in terms of the rotation right now. The team is already 7.5 games out of first and is in dead last in the Eastern League. Four of the five starters in Harrisburg are, well, just awful right now. I should note that the stats above do include one extra start for Matthew Purke; it didn’t help his cause. Newly acquired Felipe Rivero has not acclimated well to Harrisburg, to say the least. Blake Schwartz has not adjusted well to the jump to AA after his excellent season in Potomac last year. The one bright spot seems to be A.J. Cole by ERA/FIP, but he’s still putting an awful lot of people on base (1.57 whip).

Sammy Solis remains on the AA D/L, along with a handful of other long-serving names in this organization (Paul Demny, Rafael Martin and Pat Lehman).

Bullpen Notables

Zach Jackson already earned his promotion via 7 scoreless innings, though to be fair he really should have been in AAA to start (he’s a veteran minor leaguer and has been pitching at the AAA level for nearly a decade). Matt Grace is faring well thus far, as is Richie Mirowski, while Gabriel Alfaro needs to get his control under control (he’s got 9 walks in 11 1/3 innings).

Most Deserving of a promotion: none of these guys are pushing for a promotion, now that Jackson is back in AAA where he belongs.

Most in Jeopardy of a demotion/release: You have to think that Purke may be in jeopardy of being coverted to relief at this point. Alfaro was a MLFA signing out of the Mexican league and may not be long for the organization if he keeps pitching this badly. Gilliam was a throw-in to the Gio Gonzalez trade and is old for the level; he may get pushed out if someone from Potomac makes a case for promotion (which, thankfully for him, has yet to be the case; read on).

High-A/Potomac

Pitcher

Start Trend Line

W/L

ERA

Whip

FIP

K/BB Ratio

# of innings

Apps/Starts

Rauh

B-,F-,C+,C-

1-1

4.43

1.57

4

15/7

20.1

5/4

Rpena

F,D,F/inc,A-,A-

2-0

6.43

1.48

5.71

5/8

21

5/5

Mooneyham

F,C-,A-,D/short,B-

2-1

3.32

1.63

6.71

7/19

19

5/4

Bacus

A+,A+,A (into rotation for Encarnacion)

1-1

2.08

0.69

4.7

15/3

17.1

6/0

Simms

(newly promoted; no Apr starts)

Dickson

B+,F,B+,A

0-2

6.23

1.38

5.37

21/7

21.3

7/0

Encarnacion

C+,B,F,D- ->d/l

1-2

4.00

1.94

5.88

14/12

18

4/4

Lee

F-,F-,D,A -> d/l

0-2

10.05

1.74

2.33

23/8

14.1

5/4

Fister

B (rehab)

0-0

0.00

1.5

2.16

3/0

4

1/1

Dupra

A+,B+,A,A-> promoted

3-0

0.53

0.71

1.31

23/1

17

5/0

Rotation Discussion:

Potomac is sitting in 1st place easily with the rest of its division struggling so far. But Its hard to see how they’re doing it with a rotation putting up numbers like this. The only guy getting starts for Potomac in April with a respectable/impressive FIP was Nick Lee, and he’s on the D/L. But even Lee’s numbers look completely weird: he had a 10 (ten!) ERA in his 14 innings, but an astounding 23 ks in 14 innings. His numbers are completely spiked by two successive awful outings and he currently sits on the D/L with an unspecified but hopefully short-term injury. Dakota Bacus earned his way into the rotation with a series of excellent long-relief outings; he replaces the also-injured opening day rotation starter Pedro Encarnacion, who himself struggled with his control (12 walks in 18 innings) before hitting the D/L. Otherwise there’s not much notable in the Potomac rotation to talk about: Brett Mooneyham‘s advanced numbers show just how bad he’s really pitched; he currently has a 7/19 K/BB ratio in 19 innings. He has more than twice the number of walks as he has strikeouts! That’s not a recipe for success long-term.

Kylin Turnbull remains on the Hagerstown D/L, continuing to be a complete 2011 draft-day disappointment.

Bullpen Notables

The best reliever in Potomac thus far this season has already been bumped up; Brian Dupra posted a nifty 23/1 K/BB ratio and earned his way to AA. Robert Benincasa already has 5 saves with good numbers. Derek Self has great numbers and has given up just three base-runners in 10 innings thus far. So the Nats are getting some great relief. Gilberto Mendez hasn’t walked a guy yet and is one of the youngest guys in the league, so he’s clearly holding his own after posting a 0.91 ERA in low-A last year.

Most Deserving of a promotion: Outside of Dupra, its hard to pinpoint someone that really is pushing for a promotion out of this squad right now. Bacus is pitching well but he’s just got a month of high-A experience; lets see how he does for a half season. I could see the late-inning crew of Self, Benincasa and Bryan Harper possibly getting moved up sooner than later. But none of the starters really are making a case for promotion right now.

Most in Jeopardy of a demotion/release: Clearly for me the guy in trouble is Mooneyham; you just can’t be walking that many guys and have as little swing-and-miss capabilities to counter-balance your wildness. Before his injury, Encarnacion was struggling with his command too; I can see him back in low-A. Lastly Ronald Pena just is not fooling anybody right now; he’s got just 5 Ks in 20 innings and would be in more jeopardy if there weren’t other candidates ahead of him to replace at this point.

Low-A/Hagerstown

Pitcher

Start Trend Line

W/L

ERA

Whip

FIP

K/BB Ratio

# of innings

Apps/Starts

Pivetta

A,A-,F,F,B+

3-2

4.57

1.48

4.36

13/10

21.2

5/5

Voth

A,D,A-,D/short

0-2

2.91

1.38

2.7

26/10

21.1

5/5

Giolito

D-,A+,A,C-,C-

1-0

2.95

1.22

3.62

24/11

21.1

5/5

Anderson

A,A+,F,D-

3-0

6.33

1.36

4.98

13/6

21.1

5/3

Johansen

B,B+,F,C-

2-0

5.21

1.53

3.84

17/11

19

4/4

Suero

D,A,B,A

3-0

1.20

0.88

3.53

13/2

21.2

5/0

Cooper

B,A+,D

2-0

2.81

1.31

2.57

11/1

16

5/0

Jthomas

A+,A-

1-2

2.53

1.22

4.51

4/5

10.2

5/0

Ullmann

B+

0-0

0.00

0.8

2.67

9/2

10

4/0

Hollins

A-

2-0

4.35

1.74

3.86

9/7

10.1

8/0

Silvestre

B+,inc (inj)->d/l

0-0

3.00

1.33

2.24

7/2

6

2/2

Simms

A,A,A,A+->promoted

0-0

0.98

0.82

2.05

20/2

18.1

5/0

Spann

B+,A-,B+,B+->promoted

2-0

1.20

1.13

2.77

15/4

15

4/0

Rotation Discussion:

Hagerstown is taking the South Atlantic league by storm, leading its division by 5.5 games already. And they’re getting some great pitching. The team clearly seems to be doing “combo starts” with some of its guys: that’s why someone like Wander Suero has as many IP as the 5 guys in the “rotation.” So, when it comes to judging starts nearly the entire staff in Hagerstown has “start length” outings to assign grades to. I like what I see out of Austin Voth so far, and Lucas Giolito is clearly holding his own in full-season ball (both these guys feature more than a K/inning, which is great to see especially out of the undersized Voth). Meanwhile we’re seeing some worrying wildness out of Jake Johansen, which will not quell the “he’s too big to be a starter so he’s destined for the bullpen” crowd.

Bullpen Notables

John Simms (11th rounder in 2012) and Matthew Spann (booty for the team’s sticking its nose into the David DeJesus waiver situation last year) have both already forced promotions thanks to excellent results. Otherwise there really isn’t much in the way of a traditional “bullpen” in Hagerstown to talk about.

Most Deserving of a promotion: I’d say Voth and Jake Walsh, who older guys who are mowing guys down in Low-A and may need to be challenged by better/older hitters.

Most in Jeopardy of a demotion: One of the older guys on this staff (Dixon Anderson) isn’t putting up the numbers he needs to be putting up as a college senior 2011 draftee in low-A. Youngster Nicholas Pivetta is also struggling with the jump to full-season ball out of JuCo and may be dumped back to XST at some point. But it should also be said that we’re kind of squinting for bad performances out of the Low-A squad; both these guys’ numbers are better than practically anyone in AA right now.

Top Prospect Review

From a trending perspective for our top 10 prospect arms (in rough order of their typical rankings on prospect lists):

Giolito is succeeding so far, though isn’t as dominant yet to be pushing for a promotion to High-A

Cole is holding his own and is the best AA starter right now, but again isn’t entirely pushing for a AAA promotion just quite yet.

Solis has yet to appear thanks to a late spring training injury.

Rivero has really struggled since his arrival

Johansen has shown some wildness and not as much swing-and-miss stuff as he did in short-season ball.

Purke has been awful and it may be time to move him to the Pen.

Voth has been excellent and is probably the closest to a promotion.

Barrett and Treinien have both earned promotions to provide MLB cover, and when in AAA have been effective

Jefry Rodriguez is in XST and didn’t make a full-season team.

Conclusions:

So far, I must say i’m a bit disappointed in the performance of the AA squad, but its great to see the promise of the Low-A squad. I’m slightly worried about how our closer-to-the-majors top prospect arms are looking; lets re-visit in a month and see how it looks.