Feud darkens visit by Obama

President's trip comes on heels of White House urging Paterson not to run in 2010

By Irene Jay Liu Capitol bureau

Published 1:00 am, Monday, September 21, 2009

ALBANY — New York's latest political drama will be center stage in Troy today, as President Barack Obama and Gov. David Paterson come together less than 36 hours after news broke of the White House's efforts to dissuade the governor from seeking a full term in 2010.

The President's visit happens a week to the day after White House political affairs director Patrick Gaspard met with Paterson to discuss the governor's historically low poll numbers, and his prospects for winning in 2010.

Gaspard "was there on behalf of the President to let David know that they had lost confidence in his ability to retain his hold on the governorship next year, and that they would like him to reconsider for the good of the party," said a Democratic political operative who was briefed on the conversation.

According to the operative, Paterson's reaction during the conversation was "all over the lot."

"It was a combination of, 'The polls aren't accurate; I can still pull it out,' to obviously being fairly sobered by the message that was delivered," the operative said.

The White House's intervention in state politics will likely overshadow the President's intended message for his first visit to upstate New York since taking office. Obama had hoped to use his speech at Hudson Valley Community College to promote his administration's investment in community colleges as part of an overall "strategy for American innovation."

"The timing on this story was not the choosing of the White House," said the Democratic political operative. "I think that there's a lot of unhappiness about how embarrassing this will be for the governor, and how distracting this will be for the President's message."

On Thursday, Paterson publicly reasserted his intention to run when he announced the hiring of longtime New York political operative Richard Fife to serve as his campaign manager. Fife worked as a volunteer for Obama's 2008 presidential campaign and attended last summer's Democratic National Convention as an Obama delegate.

Congressman Gregory Meeks of Queens reiterated the White House's concerns to Paterson on Friday. Meeks has had a close relationship with Paterson; both men served for years in the state Legislature. Meeks endorsed Hillary Clinton during her presidential bid, but since the election has grown closer to the White House through his work in the Congressional Black Caucus. Meeks served as an informal emissary between the governor and both House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and the White House during the governor's convoluted appointment process to replace Clinton in the U.S. Senate last winter.

A White House official said Sunday that while the President has not spoken with Paterson directly about next year's race, "it's no secret that Democrats in New York are very concerned about the situation. We share those concerns and those concerns have been conveyed in an appropriate way."

The official emphasized that "no one has ordered Paterson out of the race, nor does anyone have the authority to do so. He has to look at his situation and make the decision that he thinks is right for himself, the party and the state."

Paterson refused to comment on "confidential conversations" on Sunday.

"I'm not talking about any specific conversations. As I said, I am running for office," Paterson told reporters at the African American Parade in Harlem, for which he served as Grand Marshal.

Paterson has not been able to improve his standing after months of record-low approval ratings. According to a poll released last week by the Marist Institute for Public Opinion, only 20 percent of voters say Paterson is doing an excellent or good job; 42 percent say he's doing a fair job; while 34 percent say he's doing a poor job.

The poll also found that 70 percent of registered voters do not think Paterson is a viable candidate in 2010 — including 65 percent of Democrats, 80 percent of Republicans, and 64 percent of independent voters.

Top Democrats around the state have voiced concern that Paterson's weakness at the top of the ticket could endanger the rest of the party's candidates, particularly if former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani decides to run for governor.

Giuliani in recent weeks has signalled that he is seriously considering a run for governor and has accelerated the timetable of the conversations about the gubernatorial race. Attorney General Andrew Cuomo, widely considered the most viable Democratic candidate for governor, has so far demurred when asked about his gubernatorial ambitions.

Increasingly, Democrats have grown concerned Giuliani would ultimately decide to run if Paterson was the candidate; polls show Giuliani trouncing Paterson in hypothetical 2010 matchups, but losing to Cuomo.

Democrats currently control every statewide elected office, both state legislative chambers and all but three congressional seats. (There will be a special election for one of the three GOP-held seats, due to Rep. John McHugh's recent confirmation as Obama's Secretary of the Army.)

The fate of Democrats' dominance will be determined in 2010, when the party will defend its majority in the state Senate, which will determine whether Democrats will control redistricting after the 2010 census.

In addition, the Obama administration is concerned that Paterson's weakness at the top of the ticket could allow Republicans to capture the U.S. Senate seat currently held by Kirsten Gillibrand. Democrats are one vote shy of a filibuster-proof majority, due to the death of Sen. Ted Kennedy of Massachusetts.

While the House of Representatives enjoys a strong Democratic majority, the White House is concerned about losing seats in 2010, particularly marginal Democrats such as freshman congressmen Scott Murphy, Dan Maffei and Eric Massa — who all represent conservative, upstate districts formerly held by Republicans.