Tuesday, May 10, 2016

Iraq’s Sadr Earning Iran’s Ire

Moqtada al-Sadr and
Iran have always had a difficult relationship. The two have used each other
when it suited them, and then parted ways over and over again. Currently the
two are at odds with each other over Sadr’s protests and support of Prime
Minister Haidar Abadi.

In 2016 Sadr was
able to co-opt the anti-government protests in Iraq. Those demonstrations
started the year before demanding reforms in Baghdad. In August 2015 Sadr first called on his followers to join in, and eventually subsumed
the secular protest leaders and imposed his agenda upon them by the start of
this year. That culminated in taking over the Green Zone from April 30-May 1. During those two days
Sadrists chanted anti-Iranian and anti-General Qasim Suleimani, the head of the Iranian
Revolutionary Guards Quds Force, slogans. Sadr meant to use the demonstrations
to push Prime Minister Abadi to follow through with his remaking of the cabinet
with non-partisan technocrats. Sadr also meant to intimidate the other ruling
parties by threatening to storm the Green Zone if they didn’t back the reforms.
In doing so, Sadr was attempting to become the new kingmaker in Iraqi politics.

Sadr’s actions have
evoked the ire of Iran and its allies, which have become increasingly critical
of him. The earliest hint of that dissatisfaction came in April 2016 when Sadr went to Lebanon and met with Hezbollah’s Hassan
Nasrallah. A few days later Al Hayat reported that Tehran sent Iranian Revolutionary Guards Quds Force commander
General Qasim Suleimani to talk with Sadr about his protests. A source claimed
Sadr walked out of the meeting. Finally, an advisor to Iran’s Supreme Leader
Ali Akbar Velayati said the protest was illegal and threatened the security and rule of law in
Iraq.

That pressure seemed
to make Sadr back off a bit. The day after his followers took over the Green
Zone, he departed to Iran where he was going to be berated for that latest action. The head of his bloc in parliament also apologized for the anti-Iranian chants. Finally, his offices told his followers to only carry out local demonstrations on May 6.
Despite that, people came out in cities across southern Iraq and Baghdad.

Iran has deep
mistrust of Sadr, and does not appreciate him trying to bully Abadi and push
through his reforms. Tehran’s main allies in Baghdad, Nouri al-Maliki’s Dawa faction and the Badr Organization have been opposed to PM Abadi attempting to change the
cabinet, and have been trying to undermine his rule for months now. They joined in the sit in protests by lawmakers that attempted to vote out not
only Speaker of Parliament Salim al-Jabouri, but Abadi as well. They both have
been long time opponents of Sadr too. Iran also does not like Sadr
appropriating the protest movement, because it gives him more influence, and
hence have been attacking him over it. After 2003 Iran and Sadr came together
because both opposed the United States occupation of Iraq. Sadr proved both
erratic and unpredictable and the two quickly fell out. The two maintained
ties, but it was always a difficult relationship. Today they actively dislike
each other as shown by Sadr’s followers chanting anti-Iran and anti-General
Suleimani slogans. At the same time, Tehran still has enough sway to order Sadr
to appear in Iran for those same protests. Who will ultimately win in this
struggle is yet to be seen.

Epilogue

Recent reports on
Sadr and Iran have been schizophrenic. First, Sadr’s offices released a series of pictures claiming to be Moqtada in Iran. The problem was
at least one of those pictures dated back to 2011 bringing up the date of the
other photos. Then Iran’s Foreign Ministry denied that Sadr was in the country for any talks. Finally, MP Hakim Zamili a
leader in the Sadrist movement in parliament denied that the movement was behind the Green Zone take over, claiming that
it was a spontaneous move, and then a spokesman warned that there would be a
new round of demonstrations if parliament didn’t meet again to vote on the rest
of Abadi’s cabinet. Those defiant statements counter the retreat the
organization made over the anti-Iranian chants during the Green Zone takeover. The
use of old pictures and the contradictory statements about Sadr’s presence in
Iran also obfuscates his status. Was he being berated by Iran or was Tehran
just trying to cover up its actions?

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Musings On Iraq was started in 2008 to explain the politics, economics, security, culture and history of Iraq via original articles and interviews. If you wish to contact me personally my email is: motown67@aol.com