Our weather blog brings you expert perspective on the latest weather news. Our weather experts share the inside scoop with blog entries from the studio and from the field. Check out the latest weather news and storm coverage in our most recent blog entries.

Wednesday, February 19

Written By: Scott HetskoA direct delivery from Siberia will be arriving in the Northern U.S. next Wednesday through the first few days of March. I've been professionally forecasting weather for 15 years and I honestly have never seen an air mass take a track across the North Pole and then dive DIRECTLY Southward! This meridonal pattern will result in a return to single digits temperatures by day and well below zero numbers at night.This airmass will spread frigid air from the Northeast all the way through the Central Great Plain states. Huge Arctic high will mean snow will be limited to lake effect but that may be quite prolific close to Lake Ontario.Sorry!!!

I guess records really are going to be shattered! The record lows are not that impressive for next week, Wed: -2, Thur: -6, Fri: -4, Sat: -6. It would be pretty cool to have a stretch like we did back in '79 where we set record lows four straight days in February.

Consecutive subzero lows in March would be pretty neat, but the prospect of yet another stretch of biting cold wind is starting to irritate me, even if it does include prolific lake snow. Even as a winter lover I have a limit, and this right here is that limit. Hopefully the stinging pain of more frigid wind in my face will be eased by a big storm to close out the season. Historically speaking, when March is very cold it also tends to be quite snowy, so that's a plus if you enjoy snow.

Snow in early March is expected and another big storm would be fun. I need it to hit my December prediction of 110"+ for the season. But snow outside the norms loses its appeal quickly as the month of March progresses. Snow in late March is like kissing your sister. Snow in April is.... worst yet, and snow in May is ... well I don't even want to go there.

Wow you usually do not get Scott this far out that definite about something. But he sounds like this is going to be brutal cold. Question for Scott or CCCC will there be wind with the cold because usually when you get below zero temps there is little to no wind because it is clear out?

I mean, I don't welcome the brutal cold, but if it's going to be that bad, we might as well set some records. And as far as the snowfall derby goes, whoever was working at the Rochester Airport this year had a serious bet going against us because we all know we should easily be around 90" right now. Still confident we will hit the century mark by mid-March though...

If the winds were due north we wouldn't receive very much owing to a short fetch. We don't appear to be in line for a northerly wind anyway, more northwesterly than anything. Lake effect around here is incredibly fickle so I won't speculate on how much anyone might get.

I just want to finish ahead of Binghamton. Seems like almost every year they're constantly nipping at our heels and receiving small increments of snow seemingly out of nowhere. I think their official recording station being 700 feet higher than the city on a hilltop 15 miles away has something to do with it. I've held a strong disdain for that location being chosen because no one lives that high up and hardly anyone lives in the surrounding area. The snowfall they get is not representative of the Greater Binghamton area for these reasons. It's like if we had our official station along the lake in Webster, or if Buffalo had theirs in East Aurora.

I agree with CCCC on not speculating LES right now, but with that amount of cold air coming across the big lake, snow:liquid ratios are going to be huge and some places will get pummeled. Don't be surprised if a storm sneaks up either, models are trying to get something going along the negative tilted trough late next week...

I'm not entirely sold on huge ratios for the lake effect. Numerous times I've seen air this cold result in a sub-optimal snow growth zone, and the result is tiny pixie dust weaksauce flakes. Air of polar origin tends to be pretty dry as well, so there's that to worry about. We'll see what transpires.

I do agree that there could be a sneaky storm at some point next week.

Scott was low key about potential cold late next week. He barely mentioned quick mention at end. Did not seem to concerned just more amazed that it is coming through north pole and straight down south.

Agreed. With cold air coming from the arctic the storm track should be to far South and East and lake effect should be minimal due to the dry air. I am still sticking to my guns and saying less than 100" for this year. Right now we are at what we were for the whole season last year. I say we finish in the 90- 95 inch range this year. I just do not see any storms of interest for us right now. Just boring cold air. With an inch of rain coming we will lose much of the current snow we have. I was hoping for a winter like the late 1950's where we had 3 consecutive years of 150" plus snows. Not going to even come close to those numbers. With such a cold winter this year our snow totals are very very disappointing.

Boy Snowdog, you really live your life as a glass half empty kind of guy. Regardless of the "official" numbers it's been a very snowy winter. Snow is piled higher along roads and driveways than its been in years. The snowpack for most of this month is impressive. The ski resorts in upstate NY have a ton of snow and Bristol will likely break or come close to record number of days open.

I'm sticking to my guns and saying we will exceed 100" and my target is 110" at KROC for the official measurement. There are already snow belt areas well in excess of 100". It's been a very snowy winter--- they type we haven't seen in years.

I do think Snowdog is right in terms of snowfall for rest of winter. With the placement of that strong PV and the general pattern most of the big snows will be along the coast and central/eastern Pa. Do not think places in interior NY will get much snow the rest of the winter.

The pattern is wide open for a storm to eventually track along the coast or inland once the cold starts to pull away. This kind of cold rarely leaves without a bang, especially in our part of the country. I'd be rather surprised if we didn't get one more substantial snowfall this season.

The Euro has been hinting at a huge storm hitting the East in about 9-10 days for three consecutive runs. Other models...not so much. The Euro has an excellent track record regarding how it handles southern stream systems, so it should be given more weighting even at this time range. Sadly it also keeps the system largely suppressed and we stay cold and dry, but let's not forget how it tracked our most recent substantial storm through the Gulf states at one point. The massive high responsible for said suppression could easily trend weaker...in fact I would almost expect it to.

I can't see the wind being too much of an issue, but the rain could cause flooding problems. Doesn't look like a severe impact at the moment, although some embedded strong thunderstorms are very possible which could exacerbate things for some folks. The simulated radar of the 12z NAM depicts such a thing.

I've noticed an interesting month-to-month pattern that has presented itself since December: the first half of the month tends to be exciting and snowy, while the latter half tends to be dull and less snowy. The stats don't lie...