The fate of 5,000 fixed-income staff hangs in balance at Barclays. That is according to Bernstein Research, which has a note doing the rounds this morning.

The note, penned by Chira Barua and Daniel Lasry and titled Barc – The Road to 2016 – The Last Strategic Review?, outlines what they expect from the bank’s strategy day on May 8.

The note has some morbid undertones – fixed income, currencies and commodities is “structurally dead”, according to the analysts, who then ask: “How many heads need to roll?”

Given equities out-performance is coming to an end, and cost pressures remain, the answer is quite a few: They estimate 25% to 30% of headcount to be cut, with European FICC hardest hit.

The note said: “We expect 6,500 to 7,500 FTEs to go with more than 5,000 in the European FICC business.”

As the chart shows (click to enlarge), that is equivalent to a roughly 40% reduction in European FICC headcount, down from 14,330 to 8,600, according to Bernstein’s estimates. The US, in contrast, will likely see 1,400 job cuts, with the majority of those also coming in FICC.

The UK bank has already announced plans to sell or exit most of its commodities business, while speculationover where else the bank may make cuts has been swirling for several months. All will become clear on May 8.

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