And in late October 2000, CNN reported that CNN/Time poll: Bush holds edge Bush was leading Gore by 6 points. As we know, the election was virtually tied, with the final outcome showing Gore up by about a half percentage point. (The poll probably does not reflect the impact of the enormously damaging “drunk driving” story, skillfully sprung by a Democratic operative in the last week of the campaign.)

The 1948 Classic: The Man on the Wedding Cake vs The Man from Missouri

The 1948 election was a classic- and a pollster’s nightmare. Suave urbane Thomas Dewey, the favorite of the then dominant northeast elites (sound familiar?), seemed to be the candidate from Central Casting. Polls were overly reliant on telephone sampling, which overrepresented – well, dominant northeastern elites and their like-minded brethren around the country. Scrappy Harry Truman fought a vigorous, shamelessly partisan campaign and carried the day.