Department of Water Resources State Climatologist Michael Anderson says weather-predicting models and tools aren’t as effective for California because of the state’s weather variability. This can make predicting how much precipitation can be expected from weather patterns difficult.

Anderson says University of California Santa Barbara has been doing some work that recognizes polar jet streams that could forecast drought conditions for California. There is also work looking at predicting wet weather, and Anderson says they hope to create better forecasting methods that might lead to advanced water management planning.