Last week was the week of Black Friday / Cyber Monday, so the massive sales scared away top-notch releases. This week is the week after Black Friday / Cyber Monday and the new releases are even worse. There are a few midlevel releases, like Don’t Breathe or Pete’s Dragon, but the the size of the release quickly drops from there. Fortunately, both of those releases are very good and on even really busy weeks would be contenders for Pick of the Week. It was a close pick between the two, but in the end, I went with Don’t Breathe as Pick of the Week.
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It’s Thanksgiving weekend, which means Black Friday, Cyber Monday, and of course the first installment of our Holiday Gift Guide. This week we will tackle first run releases, as well as franchise box sets, although there aren’t many of the latter to talk about. In fact, the best movie box set of the year includes more TV shows than movies in its running time and I’ve decided to include it in our second part, which deals with TV on DVD releases. There are still a number of big first-run releases this year that are definitely worthy gifts. We are going to start with the biggest domestic hit of the year...
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Four films opened wide or semi-wide over the weekend, but only one of them, Sully, did well at the box office. It earned more than double its nearest competition, When the Bough Breaks, at $35.03 million to $14.20 million. The other two new releases bombed. Overall, the box office was flat, up 1.1% from last weekend to $101 million. This was also flat when compared to last year, down just 1.7%. Since this weekend was so close to last weekend, it should come as no surprise that the year-over-year comparison hardly moved. This time last week, 2016 was ahead of 2016 by just over 6.7%, while this week its lead is just under 6.8% at $8.10 billion to $7.58 billion.
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The weekend after the Labor Day long weekend is often the worst weekend of the year. However, this year there two films opening wide that have a real shot at $20 million or more. Sully is Oscar-bait, but it is opening a little too early for that role and its reviews are a little below where they need to be. When the Bough Breaks is a thriller aimed at African-Americans and this time of year has become the perfect time to release such a film. Those two films should earn $50 million combined. Unfortunately, there are two other films coming out this week. The Wild Life is a third-tier animated film, while The Disappointments Room isn’t even opening truly wide. There’s a chance neither of them will reach the top five. The Disappointments Room likely won’t reach the top ten. This weekend last year, the top two films were The Perfect Guy and The Visit, which combined earned just over $50 million at the box office. It should be a really close race in the year-over-year competition.
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The Labor Day long weekend wasn’t even close with Don’t Breathe earning more over three days than any other film earned over four. There were a couple of other major stories as Suicide Squad hit $300 million on Monday and Bad Moms hit $100 million on Saturday. Given the production budgets of those two films, the latter has a lot more reasons to celebrate. As for the new releases, the studios will just be hoping no one remembers them in a few weeks. The Light Between Oceans missed the top five, while Morgan missed the top ten. The overall box office fell 16% to $99 million over the three-day weekend and $127 million including Monday. This is 8.9% higher than the same weekend last year. Year-to-date, 2016’s lead over 2015 grew to $500 million at $7.98 billion to $7.48 billion. That’s a lead of 6.7%. It would take a real collapse for 2016 to lose at this rate.
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Don’t Breathe is pulling off an easy win at the box office this weekend, and will become in the process the first horror film to win two straight weekends since Ouija did so, with some help from Halloween, in 2014. With an estimated 3-day $15.7 million, Don’t Breathe is ahead of Suicide Squad, which will stay in the top two for a fifth straight weekend with $10 million or so. Its total stands at $297 million as of Sunday, and will pass $300 million tomorrow. The relative success of those two films prompts a question… where are the new releases?
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Summer officially ends this week with Labor Day long weekend. For a lot of families, this is the last long weekend before school starts. (For other families, school has already started.) There are two films opening wide-ish this weekend. I thought Morgan would open in 2,500 theaters, but it is only opening in 2,020. That will hurt its box office chances. The Light Between Oceans is only opening in 1,500 theaters, which might prevent it from reaching the top five over the weekend. Don’t Breathe will likely remain in first place over the weekend, but I think Morgan will be closer than most people expected it to be. This weekend last year there was not a single film to earn more than $10 million over the three-day weekend. I think Don’t Breathe will top that, while Morgan will be relatively close. This should give 2016 the advantage in the year-over-year competition.
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Don’t Breathe topped the weekend box office chart earning $26.41 million. This was double its nearest competitor, Suicide Squad, and more than three times the other new release, Mechanic: Resurrection. The overall box office fell 12% from last weekend to $117 million. This is 33% higher than this weekend last year, which is really impressive for a year-over-year comparison. Year-to-date, 2016’s lead over 2015 has grown to $480 million or 6.5% at $7.81 billion to $7.33 billion.
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Fall season begins in earnest this weekend with the low-budget suspense flick Don’t Breathe taking over at the top of the box office chart. Sony is predicting a $26.1 million debut for the film, which will be the best debut for a horror or suspense film since The Purge: Election Year’s $31.5 million in July, and the best for a non-sequel since Annabelle’s $37.1 million in October, 2014. Don’t Breathe has the advantage of really good reviews (currently running at 84% positive on Rotten Tomatoes), although it will have a lot of competition over the next few weeks, with films aimed at a broadly similar audience coming out every week for the next three weeks (not to mention a truckload more arriving in October).
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It’s the last weekend of summer and a number of schools are already back, so the box office prospects are really low. That’s not to say there’s nothing to look forward to, as Don’t Breathe is earning stellar reviews. On the other hand, Mechanic: Resurrection still has no reviews. (There was another movie, Hands of Stone, that was expected to open wide, but that is no longer the case.) This weekend last year, Straight Outta Compton completed its threepete with $13.13 million. The best new release was War Room, which only managed $11.35 million. This year, the two wide releases will topped the combined numbers of those two films, while the holdovers will push 2016 over 2015 in the year-over-year comparison.
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There are two and a half wide releases next weekend with Don’t Breathe being the widest release and very likely the only film earning good reviews. I think it is the easy choice for the target film in this week's Box Office Prediction contest. In order to win, one must simply predict the opening weekend box office number for Don’t Breathe.

Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going over, will win a Frankenprize consisting of a previously reviewed full-season TV on DVD release, two previously reviewed movies, or three single-disc kids DVDs.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going under, will also win a Frankenprize consisting of a previously reviewed full-season TV on DVD release, two previously reviewed movies, or three single-disc kids DVDs.
Finally, we will be choosing an entrant from the group of people who haven't won, or haven't won recently, and they will win the final Frankenprize, as described above.

Entries must be received by 10 a.m., Pacific Time on Friday to be eligible, so don't delay!
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July did reasonably well, thanks mostly to The Secret Life of Pets, which will top $300 million shortly and could earn double its nearest competitor when all is said and done. That said, there were also a quartet of $100 million hits as well, so the month had good depth as well. August isn’t as lucky. There is one film that is expected to earn $100 million during its opening weekend, Suicide Squad, and one more that is expected to reach $100 million in total, Pete’s Dragon. There could be a surprise hit among the rest of the releases, (my long shot with a shot is Sausage Party) but for the most part, the rest of the wide releases would be happy with just $50 million at the box office. Last August was a disaster and Straight Outta Compton was the only hit of the month. Unless Suicide Squad bombs compared to expectations, 2016 will come out ahead in the year-over-year comparison.
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Full financial estimates for this film, including domestic and international box office, video sales, video rentals, TV and ancillary revenue
are available through our research services. For more information, please contact us at research@the-numbers.com.