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MEMBER DIARY

Obama’s ‘Debt Tsunami’ Sends Market Higher

The Good News Just Keeps Coming

What was it that touched off today’s market rally? According to the UK Telegraph, it was due to analyst Meredith Whitney’s urge to buy Goldman Sachs. Why is Whitney so confident about Goldman Sach’s future performance?

Our more bullish outlook on Goldman Sachs shares is deeply rooted in our sustained bearish stance on the U.S. economy and the state of U.S. financials at large. Specifically, we expect a tsunami of debt issuance from federal/sovereign, state, and local governments ramping up debt issuance to fund woefully underfunded budget gaps. In addition, we expect corporate debt issuance to be at least 60% as strong as peak cycle levels, reflecting sizable debt maturity rolls. What’s more, given fewer players in the market, not only is GS benefiting from market share gains on these products but more widely in the derivatives products.

It’s an ill wind that blows no good. This is one case where GS investors are going to make out like bandits because of a continuing bad economy and an unprecedented level of borrowing. Good news, huh?

This may be the right time to buy shares of Goldman Sachs – provided you haven’t lost your job or exhausted your savings.