Bronx Bombers Catch the Bomba Squad. Can Twins Regain Record?

Last night in the middle of the Twins 5-0 win over the Washington Nationals, the news broke: the New York Yankees had tied – and then PASSED – the Twins in home run totals. A clutch two-run home run by Mitch Garver put the Twins back into a tie before the night was over, but is the Bomba Counter a sham? Can the Twins stay ahead of the Yankees in the home run race?

The bad news first: the Yankees are on a tear. They caught the Twins last night because they hit SIX home runs versus Ron Gardenhire’s toothless Tigers. Hooray pitch to contact!. Even worse is that was just their first game against them this week. They have two more.

And it's not just one game. New York has averaged 2.5 per game over their last 35 games, which doesn’t sound like that big a deal (because who really pays attention to numbers after decimal points, amirite?) except that’s a 400+ home runs per year pace.

The good news? The Twins have two games more to play than the Yankees. So on a game-to-game basis, the Twins are technically eight home runs ahead. But with all the nagging injuries in the Twins lineup, their home run pace has slowed considerably. Since September first, the Twins have eight home runs in nine games. If that trend continues, those two games mean only two home runs, and the Yankees have already passed that by six home runs.

A longer term view shows just how consistent each team has been, and how the Twins curve has flattened out over the last couple of weeks while the Yankees’ has trended up. To help you out, I’ve highlighted the part that is not good.

Does the schedule help? A little. The Twins will face some pretty good pitching over the next five games versus the Nationals and the Indians, but then they get to face the bottom three in the AL Central again. They’ve hit 71 home runs versus the White Sox and Tigers this year in 36 games, or about two per game. Unfortunately, the Yankees finish their season at Texas, a ballpark notorious for giving up home runs.

I’m not going to sugar-coat this: it’s not looking good. The Twins’ home run pace has slowed, they are banged up and need to focus on winning a division. The Yankees are hot, getting healthier and can coast. It’s been a heck of a fun year, but it looks like the Twins will (again) have their lunch money stolen again by those Damn Yankees.

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53 Comments

The Yankees have played two more games than the Twins. If you take away the Yankees two games (because the Twins have not played those two games yet) the Yankees would be eight home runs back, because that's where they sat two games ago.

But a more accurate way (in my mind) of thinking about it is that with two games in hand, it means the Twins are "up" as many home runs as you think they'll hit in those two games. For the season, that's about four home runs up. But for the last week-plus, that's just two home runs, which Rick Anderson's pitching staff should have no trouble making up.

I 'liked' some of the posts because they were in tune with my thoughts on this. I think the most interesting thing about the HR record could be its permanence of MLB decides to go back to a real baseball next year and in the future. To me this is sort of like moving the mound in to 54' and being impressed by the amount of strike outs pitchers are accruing! .

I 'liked' some of the posts because they were in tune with my thoughts on this. I think the most interesting thing about the HR record could be its permanence of MLB decides to go back to a real baseball next year and in the future. To me this is sort of like moving the mound in to 54' and being impressed by the amount of strike outs pitchers are accruing! .

I'm with you...mostly. I agree with the sentiment that the numbers can't be interpreted in terms of where they would fit historically. About every record related to HRs is falling...most overall, most by a team, most in a month, most by a rookie in his first X games, most by a player before his 21st birthday...ad nauseam.

Still, I don't expect the 2019 team number to have much permanence. Two reasons. One, I don't think it's JUST the ball. Two, I think MLB very much wants the HRs. I think they see it as "well, if batting averages are going to be low, and strike-outs are going to be high, we need lots of home runs". And since the BA and K trends don't seem to be easing up any time soon, I'm not expecting MLB to be in any kind of a hurry to inhibit the HR trend...including materially 'correcting' the baseball.

The home run record for a season is it's own thing. It is not connected to getting to and winning in the play-offs. It doesn't have to be one or the other, even in one'e own mind. They are separate accomplishments that may or may not happen. It doesn't lesson one to care about one more than the other. Not caring about one doesn't make the other more likely to happen. Records are fun. Always have been. Always will be. That is why we keep track of them.

Well it seems our hitters are comming back and we have 13 games against the bottom feeders so I still think we have a fighting chance.I also hope we can hit some other HR goals.We currently have 3 players who have hit 30 HRs.if Sano and Rosario can make it that would be 5 players on a team which i think is a record.we also have I think 8 20 HR hitters.I think that is a record too.so if the Yanks do have the most for the season we can end up with several other team HR records too.Although I hate the Yanks and I will be rooting for the HRs the rest of the season so we can win by one.

So the bottom line is we will likely tie the Yankees for the most HRs in a season.

yeah, and no matter who holds it, I suspect it gets broken in the not so distant future.

idk, it seems to me that MLB is going to have to do something. The big home run totals in the late 90s put fans back in the seats after the strike/lockout of 1994/5. But it isn’t playing out that way now. MLB attendance and ratings continue to trend down.

idk, it seems to me that MLB is going to have to do something. The big home run totals in the late 90s put fans back in the seats after the strike/lockout of 1994/5. But it isn’t playing out that way now. MLB attendance and ratings continue to trend down.

Local ratings are doing quite well, as I understand. It is a very different media landscape than even just a few years ago, so I suspect MLB isn't truly concerned about national ratings all that much.

How many of you knew that the Yankees held the record before the season started? Or who held it before that? Whoever sets it this year, it will almost certainly be broken again in a year or two. It's a nice talking point, but I honestly don't care that much.