Game Change: The Obamacare Tax

The highest court in the land has spoken and the campaign has been framed for the next 130 days. This election will be about the future of Obamacare, and how politicians react and respond to the Supreme Court ruling could make or break their candidacies.

We now know categorically that Obamacare was a tax after all. President Obama misled the American people and now we have an enormous tax increase on our hands. According to the House Ways and Means Committee, there will be 21 tax increases because of the Obamacare Tax, costing more than $675 billion over the next ten years. In simple terms, the American people were duped by President Obama. Whether you are rich or poor, white or black, male or female, Democrat or Republican, your taxes are going up.

The U.S. House will hold a vote to repeal Obamacare in mid-July and I predict that repeal will pass with a healthy bi-partisan majority. This tally will reflect the fact that a solid majority of the American people oppose Obamacare and disagree with the Court’s decision to allow for this massive expansion of government. We’ll know exactly how many vulnerable House Democrats there are after this vote is taken – Democrats frightened about their reelection chances will vote with the Republican majority to take this dangerous tax-hike off the books. These are the Democrat districts where Mitt Romney will go to campaign for anti-Obamacare Tax swing votes.

On the U.S. Senate side there will be considerable pressure on Democrat Majority Leader Harry Reid to schedule a similar vote to repeal Obamacare. It will be Mitt Romney’s job to increase this pressure. If Reid digs in and doesn’t schedule a vote, it will become more likely that Republicans will recapture the majority in the Senate in November.

Here’s why: There are at least five Democrats in the Senate up for re-election who would probably appreciate the opportunity to go on record with a vote to repeal Obamacare. Senators such as Sherrod Brown of Ohio, Bob Casey, Jr. of Pennsylvania, Claire McCaskill of Missouri, Bill Nelson of Florida, and Jon Tester of Montana all voted for Obamacare two years ago, but today the law is viewed unfavorably in their states. Their support for Obamacare could cost them their re-election — like Ben Nelson from Nebraska — especially since the Court ruled that it is actually a new tax.

Will Harry Reid schedule a vote or will these Senators be forced to pay the ultimate political price for their support of the Obamacare Tax and pave the way for a Republican Senate? Will these five Senators listen to their constituents and put pressure on Harry Reid to schedule a repeal vote? Time will tell, but it’s about to get a lot hotter in Washington.