Wireless Imagination!

Saturday, 7 May 2016

Chaos Theory of Standardization in IOT

Transforming the Internet of Things market by reducing inefficiency

As Chaos theory focuses on the initial condition of every
event meaning that their future behavior is fully determined by their initial
conditions, I feel that the IOT scenario is also currently at an initial
juncture where we have an opportunity to control the situation before it goes
out of hand. There are numerous standards being followed currently in the IOT
space to connect various devices but no single global framework is followed.
Like the TCP for internet or the IPV4/6 for connectivity which has become the
global standard. We have seen the telecommunication and internet revolution simultaneously
happening which has fueled various innovations and has made life much more
convenient. Even though 2G, 3G, 4G, 5G technologies along with Internet have
been globally standardized, the IOT which uses internet as a platform has not
yet been standardized. The objective of IOT standardization is to create one
language for IOT communication. Even though historically many technological
standards have been standardized to a global standard, the IOT world is in a
state of chaos and is actually diverging into many individual standard formats
than converging into one. Think of the data that were recorded in the cassette
tapes and VCR system. Their formats are not compatible in today’s data format and
hence obsolete. This will “distinguish past from the future, by marching away
from the chaos, the randomness, and moving towards stability. This is why
standards are necessary”. (Campbell, J., 1983. Grammatical Man, A Touchstone
Book, Simon & Schuster, Inc., page 265.)

The way hierarchy structure in an organization reduces the
data analytics time as only the managers data have to be analyzed as each
manager manages few associates. Therefore less data analysis saves time and hence
cost. Most economics theory is based on saving time. Most of the ecommerce
startup like online grocery (Food tech startup) or cab aggregators like Uber
focus on saving time using mobile apps hence save effort and cost.As Chaos theory focuses on the initial condition of every event meaning that their future behavior is fully determined by their initial conditions, I feel that the IOT scenario is also currently at an initial juncture where we have an opportunity to control the situation before it goes out of hand. There are numerous standards being followed currently in the IOT space to connect various devices but no single global framework is followed. Like the TCP for internet or the IPV4/6 for connectivity which has become the global standard. We have seen the telecommunication and internet revolution simultaneously happening which has fueled various innovations and has made life much more convenient. Even though 2G, 3G, 4G, 5G technologies along with Internet have been globally standardized, the IOT which uses internet as a platform has not yet been standardized. The objective of IOT standardization is to create one language for IOT communication. Even though historically many technological standards have been standardized to a global standard, the IOT world is in a state of chaos and is actually diverging into many individual standard formats than converging into one. Think of the data that were recorded in the cassette tapes and VCR system. Their formats are not compatible in today’s data format and hence obsolete. This will “distinguish past from the future, by marching away from the chaos, the randomness, and moving towards stability. This is why standards are necessary”. (Campbell, J., 1983. Grammatical Man, A Touchstone Book, Simon & Schuster, Inc., page 265.)

Standardization will in turn save enormous amount of time and
cost. One of the major changes in this space has been triggered due to the
declining cost of sensors and cloud storage.

Hence the cost effectiveness has triggered traction in the
adoption of this technology.

In the world of standardization in IOT, there are many wicked
problems. To make people accountable and fix the issues, one standard is
imperative. The major challenge is changing requirements as innovation are
taking place every day and devices being connected are increasing every day in
the IOT space hence difficult to track. One way of reducing cost is by reducing
initial research of creating protocols and development cost, maintenance cost
by reducing duplication and hence training cost. The benefits of well-planned
IOT standardization should overpower the initial investment by a huge margin. Just
by having one global standard can solve all these problems. Getting frustrated because
of non-availability of right charger for your mobile phone will be a story of
the past!

There has been very significant shift in new technology
adoption. From innovation to adoption of a technology there are series of
events that unfold. Before I explain this shift, let me start with a ‘why’ by
asking why IOT standardization now? There are 3 reasons why there is a need for
standardization of IOT now.

1.99% devices in the world are not connected. This means that the
timing is perfect. Timing was the key for Uber and Airbnb launch and hence the
success factor.

2.50 billion connected devices by 2020 and 2 trillion in
revenue means that demand will only rise and hence streamlining is the key.

3.In 2013-14, approximately
2 billion USD invested in IOT startups in Silicon Valley alone. This only shows
that the IOT industry is going to be in the early adopter stage. Hence early
adopters of common universal standard is crucial right now as the timing is
perfect as 1% of devices in the world is currently connected.

This is the Gartner Hype cycle which conveys that not all
technology made it to the mainstream. All these are from the perspective of an
enterprise where consumers have very little role to play in this lifecycle.
This underlying theme comes out in both the “Hype Cycle” model used by Gartner
since 1995 and the “Technology Adoption Lifecycle” model popularized by Everett
Rogers and Geoffrey Moore. Overlaying the hype cycle on the actual consumer
adoption is a better way for organizations to make decisions.

To summarize this figure, the peak of adoption cycle talks
about the early majority users and that is the phase when the technology is
moving up the slope and is being accepted slowly. In 2015, IOT is in the Peak
of Hype cycle and its rapidly being adopted by various industry standards but
with chaos and zero strategy for the future compatibility. In the technology
adoption space, most of the IOT companies are in the initial start of the curve
and hence right time for everyone to follow one platform which can define the
end goal. This refusal to adopt a global standard will land all of us in the
same problem we have about non-compatibility of various audio and video formats
like VHS v/s Betamax issue. The need of the hour is to think long term.

Protocols for interoperability have to be standardized for
ease of communication. Each sensor generates data which has to communicate with
every other device. Different naming and addressing standards will lead to
device searching issues. Hence talking to each other in the same language is of
prime importance. The narrative of the English language gaining dominance as
the global language supports my argument of having a universal IOT language for
communication.

In the vision of IoT, things have a digital
identity (described by unique identifiers), identified with a digital name and
the relationships among things can be specified in a digital domain. Some more practical reasons of why IOT standardization
would be the most effective way going forward. Is there a real incentive to
drive IOT standardization?1. Interoperability: Breaking IOT products and services into
non-interoperable units will hurt the growth of an emerging industry. Unified
data exchange format based on context between different industry domains. A
unique identifier for an object can translate to a single permanent
assigned name named as IOTid for the life of an object. However, there may
be need to accommodate multiple identifiers per object, as well as changes
to those identifiers. For example, many objects will have a unique
identifier assigned by their manufactures. Some may have network addresses
(IPv6), as well as temporary local identifiers. We can have an IOTid based
on a combination of its IP address as well. It is important that
identifiers are not constrained by current choices of technology for
storing and communicating unique identifiers or their current limitations,
since data carrier technology will evolve. Sensors attached to objects
will be individually addressable; their identifiers will be associated
with the object via a lookup in a registry. Combinations of things will
create “family of tree” identification schemes.2. Control
and Accountability:Chains
of responsibility should be clearly established and remedies must be
available. Having a hierarchy will exercise centralized control (for
example blogs can write whatever about Facebook, twitter but FB is in control
of its quality and content).3. Economical: The economic benefit
of standardization can vary significantly between different countries. For
example studies show that the impact of standards on annual GDP growth
could range from 0.3 to 1 percentage point in different EU member states.
Standards are good for international trade because they help lower cost
between the seller and the buyer by providing an independent objective set
of criteria. With economies of scale in the manufacturing industry, prices
do stabilize and similarly with standardization the IOT products over a
period of time will be real cheap. Both the industry as well as consumers
will reap the benefit of this.4. Faster
Response: Any
issues or complaints can be resolved faster as there will be a clear
authority to resolve the conflicts. Hence the users know where to get the
work done. When there is a defined set of process and procedures, problems
can be solved much faster. Imagine if a crime is committed in an IOT
ecosystem, who will be responsible and hence who will respond to it?
Technology is mindless; it depends on who uses it!5. Neutral: Standardization is
the voluntary process of developing rules based on consensus among all
stakeholders (industry, consumers, public authorities, trade unions etc).
Standards also enhance the competitiveness of industry by framing the
common requirements upon which a particular IOT product can be built and a
hence a level playing field can be ensured by equal representation for all
groups.6. Transparency:Open
Governance protects privacy and fundamental rights of users and hence when
data moves from one device to other, lots of data analysis happens which
can compromise the identity of the people involved. Having one standard
and hence an authority can help ensure openness and hence more security.

Now talking about the power game of who can influence the
standardization process. How standardization will work? Or probably should we
be asking will it ever work? To kick start this complex initiative I strongly
propose a global campaign for ‘IOTism’. Currently we are witnessing an IOT
ecosystem which lacks strong global IPR rules, neutral governance and a
balanced participation or representation. The solution to this problem would
come from game theory. Without an unbiased authority or a policy maker, it will
be impossible to have a truly global IoT ecosystem.

Michel Foucault the philosopher said that power comes from
multiple sources hence there must be multiple sources of resistance. If we fail
to tackle the multiple sources of power, then we risk allowing them to continue
to exist and hence multiple source of resistance exists which will create hindrances
and hence difficult to control. The tough question we need to ask is why to
create an Insecure Internet of Things (IoT)? With this analogy I feel the IOT
standardization chaos needs to be tackled with minimum resistance which means
making sure there is a common body of influence which can lay the code of
conduct of the IOT game. The prison, and its panoptic architecture, was for
Foucault a perfect example of these new technologies of power. In the Panopticon,
the prisoner can be observed at any time. However, because the observation
tower in the middle of the prison is also a source of light, he doesn’t know
when he is actually being watched, therefore acts with the assumption of an
omnipresent observer.

How and what would the governance of the IoT be like? Will it
be a state-led agency, or a group under the supervision of the UN, or an
industrial consortium? Currently the various power players in the standards
world like ITU, ICANN, IEEE, OIC, W3C, ISO, ITEF and industry verticals
standard are present who wants to influence a larger pie. Applying Game theory
to IOTism for adoption of ONE universal theory – If everyone adopts the
standard at the same time, it will be successful. Need of the hour is to bring
all institutions together and frame an IOT standard together.IOTism or IOT standard Share
= 1 / number of IOT standard organizationNote: Number of IOT standard organization
ideally =1

Currently by the end of 2015, IOT Industry market is around
0.8 Trillion USD. The true market value of the IOT industry would be created
only if there is integration of all IOT standards into just one. If I assume
approx. 400 current standards, then IOT standardization value = 0.8/400= 2 Billion.
This per capita or per standard value bring down the efficiency of the IOT
industry as a whole. Therefore if and only if the IOT standard share is 1, then
the IOT market value can be maximized.

Let us consider two groups who have their own IOT standard
and are trying to lobby or push their standard as global standard. Applying
Game theory to this strategic decision, we can find the Nash equilibrium. In
this game, both Group A and Group B have a dominant strategy to lobby for pushing
their own IOT standard in the industry. It makes sense that if Group A chooses
to lobby, and Group B does not, new regulations sought by Group A could put Group
B at a competitive disadvantage leading to lower payoffs for Group B. Perhaps
if both companies lobby for a common IOT standard, both can carve out some sort
of competitive advantage while also protecting themselves to some extent from
the lobbying efforts of others. However, there are opportunity costs to
lobbying. Expending resources to gain advantages through government
intervention is what economists refer to as rent seeking. It may be the case
that if both would abstain from lobbying their own standard, those resources
could be devoted to R&D efforts that would actually yield greater returns,
improved marketing to consumers, or other benefits leading to higher payoffs
for both players.

Hence having a common framework will reduce the effort of
lobbying and hence concentrate more on the product to market for consumers.

Group A

No Lobby

Lobby

Group B

No Lobby

200,200

0,300

Lobby

300,0

100,100

The solution to this is really thinking out of this box and
bring another angle of both the Groups A & B pushing a universal common IOT
framework simultaneously. This would be beneficial to everyone when multiple
stakeholders are involved. Hence lobbying one common universally accepted IOT
standard is the only solution which should be accepted simultaneously by all
the major power groups. This group should be represented by the corporates,
establishments and standard organizations altogether working in unison to push
a common standard for IOT.

For the sake of argument let us compare the Information age versus
banking system. Banking is regulated today. Hence banking system is trusted.
Whereas information and internet is not trusted today and hence IOT will not be
trusted if there is no regulation control and monitoring. If an ecosystem of
support along with regulation is provided then the whole IOT system will be
successful. Currently various standard exists and hence there is no monitoring
done. Standardization will bring in monitoring. Therefore, all country,
agencies collectively would apply game theory of one standard at the same time.
Hence IEEE, ISO, ITU, ICANN, W3C power war, various industry vertical standards
like healthcare, financial sector, manufacturing etc all should adopt a common
standard framework.

One of the ways of approaching this is accepting the
commonalities of the already existing silo standards and framing the base
foundation of the framework through global alliance of standards. To make sure
any revisions of the frameworks can be done, we need to provide a boundary and
hence I propose an IOT TRUST framework.

•T- Traceable

•R - Responsible

•U - Universally
accepted standard

•S – Secure

•T – Transparent

The way a Governance Risk and Compliance (GRC) Automation platform
or tool in Cyber security space has a basic foundation which has workflow,
dashboard, application linking, access and role management etc and any use case
or application module can sit on top of it. Similarly IOT TRUST foundation could
be common globally. Any organization/industry is free to map their customized
processes on top of the base foundation framework. This will control the input
and output of data. Hence achieving a universal standard and a contextual
technology layer wrapped on top of it.

Also it is imperative to understand that once the IOT
standardization is achieved, there should be a smooth transition strategy like
a migration roadmap plan for the previous standards (currently approximately
450 IOT standards exists) and not just leave on the market to decide the
adoption. The responsibility of this group would be to think ahead of the curve
and make the necessary changes to the framework to be compatible and
accommodative for future innovations. IOT is an extension to human organs and
hence the game of IOTism to ORGANism should be played very responsibly. We
should keep in mind what happens to humanity when there is technological
singularity! Else the next world war could be fought over standard Information
of Things!

Monday, 5 October 2015

In the early 1970 we started connecting Computers, then
during 2005 we connected people through social media and now devices. The
objective of IOT is to reduce the people interaction and take better decisions
based on the available data. The aim is to make life more comfortable. Similarly
every enterprise is becoming a software company at heart and hence companies
like Uber is successfully disrupting the non-software based transportation Industry.
Hence in a long run all these gaps in various industries will be filled by the software
innovations. Hence every industry like power, transportation, agriculture,
manufacturing, healthcare etc will integrate to one common infrastructure which
is the Internet. Most of the industry which we thrive on today has already got
onto the internet platform. Education is online via e-learning and MOOC, E-commerce
on online shopping from grocery to any utility, Healthcare from medical
consultancy to surgery, Government via e-governance and so on…

Due to the beginning of the dominance of the next superpower,
many institutions are trying to influence the internet world and their
supporters. In this scenario, the political power game has begun of who is much
stronger and who can gain a larger share of the internet world and control the
digital space.

On the contrary we are also starting to witness a trend of
falling monopolies – Windows dominance is disappearing as most of the desktops
will be replaced by mobile phones and mobile apps which will be operated by
other OS (Currently android is a clear winner). Search engines are past and
might disappear soon, because Facebook, LinkedIn, Wikis will rule individual
searches, the telecom towers will be replaced by Internet exchange points etc…

The question we need to ask is: who controls the content in
the Internet? Who monitors the IOT? Hence many power centers are emerging like the ICANN vs ITU
war not to forget the Darknet world.
All this power game is on as North America and Europe are the 2 leading geographies
for cybersecurity revenue contribution, according to many global research reports.

Now imagine when devices get connected globally which is
also currently happening. This will lead to many governmental interferences
leading to privacy and censorship issues when approximately 15-20
devices will be connected to every person.

Few statistics to focus on:-

1980- Cell phone subscribers: 11.2 million

1990- Cell phone subscribers: 12.5 million (0.25% of world
population in 1990)

-Internet users: 2.8 million (0.05% of world population in 1990)

2002 - Cell phone subscribers: 1.2 billion (19% of world
population in 2002)

-Internet users: 631 million (11% of world population in 2002)

2010- Cell phone subscribers: 4 billion (67% of world
population in 2010)

-Internet users: 1.8 billion (26.6% of world population in 2010)

Internet penetration today (2015) is 40% and the effort is
to get the remaining 60% into the internet platform. Even though I am certain that there will be multiple
standards in the IoT space, I am curious to know what will dominate IoT space where
billions of devices will be connected. Because at the end of the day there has
to be one universal standard like TCP IP which has to be accepted globally for
communication.

In 1996, (5 billion was the human population) more
than 80 percent of
Internet users were native English speakers. By 2010, that percentage had
dropped to 27.3 percent.(Anywhere
up to 1.8 billion people around the world speak English). Just to bring a different comparison, it will be interesting
to know which language as well as protocol standard will rule the internet
(just like the dominance of English Language in the world). Currently many
protocols such as NFC, BLE, Cellular (3G/4G), Zig-bee, Wi-Fi, 6LowPAN,
Z-wave etc exists for IOT connectivity. Some are also industry specific protocols
and standards and some are driven by big enterprises who command due to early
entry into the IOT space. Also few unique startups in the IOT space which will
disrupt the industry in few years!

I feel, One infrastructure – internet means only and only
one standard protocol. Like IP version4/6 has standardized the communication
there has to be one standard of communication for IOT.

Today if I have to make a directory…I am not sure if
everybody would like to list their names and phone numbers in a public forum….Reason
is TRUST DEFICIT! There is a trust issue and hence people are moving towards
other alternatives like darknet and hence to a safer place. I strongly feel
this trust issue will change over a period of time. This will evolve and become
the trusted and more convenient system like banking system. (Like the more
convenient browsing because of HTML 5).When banking system was introduced 400
yrs ago it also had trust issues. Nobody would go and deposit their hard earned
money with someone. But it has evolved over a period of time and people started
trusting the banking system and has come out of this initial distrust of
depositing money with someone to taking money anytime anywhere. My second guess
is that this will happen to data sharing in the internet as well. There will be
a time when people will no longer worry about their data as it will be safe and
secure in the hands of the housekeeper like the money in the Bank. They will
worry more about other valuable investments of growing their knowledge and
becoming wiser and this gain would be their interest as compared to the one
that banking system provides!

While I say that monopolies in the OS and web search world
are diminishing, the standardization protocols in the IOT space are increasing.
However these protocols have to be standardized so that the devices communicate
anywhere in the world seamlessly.Just like the conductor provides a direction to the orchestra there has to be a direction by a universal framework or a standard.

It will be interesting to see which power centre
controls the IOT standards in the coming future which is not at all far away! Also while we make devices interact with each other we
should not forget the fact that human touch is far more powerful than machines
and both need to coexist for better life!

There are many cases in the organized cybercrime industry
which caters to frauds. Now imagine IOT frauds from various disparate systems. Way
too Complex to handle! Hence there has to be one unified standard to handle the
chaos! Keeping in mind the chances of getting filter bubbled by some big
institutions…

Thursday, 12 March 2015

Friday, 6 March 2015

The world is going Digital and Technology is more personal
than ever. I feel there has been 3 revolutions that has changed the global outlook:-

•Scientific
Revolution (1550-1650)

•Industrial
Revolution (1760-1840)

•Internet
Revolution (1980-2000)

•Industrial
Internet (Today)

It all started from the Galileo time where for the first
time an instrument was used in between a human and the object to study it. This
was in itself a paradigm shift. Then came the Industrial revolution where mass
production and automation was born. Then came the computers and network which
connected the whole world together. The invention of Computers is being equated
to something similar to invention of Fire.

Talking about Internet, around 40% of the world population
has an internet connection today. In 1995, it was less than 1%. The number of
internet users has increased tenfold from 1999 to 2013. There are approximately
6.5 Billion mobile phones in the world and out of which1.5 Billion are smart
phones.

There is an increased number of networked appliances like
television, mobile phones, sensor systems like HVAC, medical instruments,
automobiles etc. The internet has evolved so much that the IPV6 is being rolled
out due to the IPV4 exhaustion. The first billion was reached in 2005. The
second billion in 2010. The third billion in 2014. Soon more and more devices
are going to be connected. This has given birth to a new idea called Internet
of Things (IOT)

The Internet of Things (IoT) is a scenario in which objects,
animals or people are provided with unique identifiers and the ability to
transfer data over a network without requiring human-to-human or
human-to-computer interaction. Different names are being associated with this
concept: “Industrial Internet” (General Electric), “Internet of Everything”
(Cisco), “Web of Connected Objects” (France), “Industrie 4.0″ (Germany), “Internet
of Things and Services” (Bosch)

With the reduction in the cost of the sensors and the
storage space, there has been a significant development in the way various
industries are leveraging the high speed internet capability.

Let me take 3 industries where IOT is used:-

1. Airline industry:
Airline industry is being constantly criticized for the flight delays. Due to
which the industry incurs billions of losses. A system called Preventive
Maintenance System (PMS) is being implemented which has sensors in the aircraft
which sends real time data of various parameters like engine efficiency, wear
and tear elements etc to the ground staff and hence before the flight lands the
maintenance team is already ready to serve the flight with the known problems.
This saves lot of time and hence no more delays.

2. Medical Industry:
Glucose monitor, heart rate monitor, using google glass many operations are
being conducted with live feeds being monitored around the globe which
increases the surgery efficiency. Saves time and lives!

3. Power & Energy
Sector: The weather forecast feeds can help to redirect the direction of
the blades of wind turbine and hence attain maximum speed and provide efficient
power output. The driverless cars would efficiently increase the way driving is
managed and also help reduce accidents by communication between vehicles on the
road. The development of smart cities will also help connect a wider audience
in many ways like monitoring and reporting status of city services like traffic
flow, power and water usage, its availability and outage. Imagine the amount of
access to city information which could enable new businesses. There is of
course a security issue in this!

But with all these innovations and technological
advancements there will be threats that mankind has to be aware of and deal
with.

Some of the potential future threats posed by the IoT
interconnected devices I foresee include:

There could be a situation soon when the connected world and
connected devices will lead to over powering of humans by machines.

I was privileged enough to meet the Father of Internet –
Vint Cerf, in Mumbai on 3rd Jan 2015. I asked him a question on what
happens to humanity when there is Technological Singularity? This is related to
Artificial Intelligence. His views were of using technological innovation for
the betterment of mankind and there is always a precaution that needs to be in
place.

I agree with him and if a simple google glass can help me
increase my productivity and efficiency then why not? Something to ponder about!