Tuesday, March 6, 2012

Deaths See Large Drop In Iraq From January To February 2012

After a series of articles warning that violence in Iraq was increasing, and that the country might be on the verge of a new civil war, the number of deaths was cut nearly in half in February 2012. Rather than marking a new trend in security, January’s high casualties were simply a result of the large number of targets available during the Shiite pilgrimage of Arbayeen to Karbala, and insurgents trying to make a statement after the U.S. troop withdrawal in December 2011. With only one mass casualty bombing, and an especially bloody day when militants were able to carry out attacks in seven provinces, February returned to the norm of monthly casualties.

Whether Iraq’s casualty numbers go up or down are largely shaped by the number of large bombings that occur. In February, there was only one such incident, when a suicide car bomber struck the Baghdad Police Academy on February 19, which left 19 casualties. There was also an especially bloody day on February 23 when insurgents were able to carry out attacks in 17 cities across seven of Iraq’s 18 provinces. That resulted in 83 deaths, and hundreds wounded, coming from five roadside bombs, four car bombs, two shootings, a grenade attack, and a drive by shooting in Baghdad, three car bombs and two improvised explosive devices (IEDs) in Babil, four IEDs, two car bombs, two shootings, and several roadside bombings in Diyala, three car bombs and shootings in Salahaddin, a shooting, and IED in Anbar, two mortar shells in Ninewa, and two car bombs in Tamim. That compared to four major attacks in January that resulted in 186 deaths. In total, there were 278 attacks last month, compared to 330 in January, a 15% drop. That broke down to 52 in Diyala, 47 in Baghdad and Ninewa each, 32 in Babil, 28 in Tamim, 26 in Salahaddin, 18 in Anbar, six in Qadisiyah, four in Basra and Wasit each, three in Dhi Qar, Irbil, and Maysan, and one in Dohuk, Karbala, Muthanna, Najaf, and Sulaymaniya respectively. That meant every single governorate saw violence, but 224 of those incidents, 80% of the total were in just seven of them. As usual, IEDs were the weapons of choice, accounting for 170 attacks, followed by 57 shootings, 29 car bombs, 13 grenades being thrown, and nine rockets/mortars. The main difference between February and January was that the latter was politically significant, and was the month of Arbayeen when thousands of people from Iraq and Shiite communities around the world travel to Karbala. That meant January was a target rich environment with Shiite pilgrims nearly everywhere in the country. Militants also wanted to make a statement that they were still active and deadly after the United States withdrew its forces. That’s why there were so many mass casualty attacks in Iraq at the beginning of the year. Iraqi insurgents have also not been able to maintain this pace of operations for more than a few months. They probably expended most of their supplies, and need a matter of weeks to reload before they can carry out a large number of attacks once again.

The leftover of a car bomb in Baquba, Diyala on Feb. 23, the deadliest day of the month when 83 people were killed across the country (Reuters)

The press has a bad tendency to focus upon the violence in Iraq. When they do, they often do not place the latest incident in much context of whether attacks and casualties are going up or down. January’s media coverage was especially egregious, because as the month went on, the tone became more and more dire with warning after warning about Iraq returning to civil war, and sectarian tensions increasing. The fact that the month’s casualties and attacks were not much higher than the top figures seen in 2011 for example, was not noted. The faulty predictions were put into stark contrast when February’s counts were released, and deaths and attacks were both down. Unfortunately, the next time there is a string of big bombings in Iraq, media outlets are likely to repeat the same mistakes they made at the beginning of this year.

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About Me

Musings On Iraq was started in 2008 to explain the political, economic, security and cultural situation in Iraq via original articles and interviews. I have written for the Jamestown Foundation, Tom Ricks’ Best Defense at Foreign Policy and the Daily Beast, and was responsible for a chapter in the book Volatile Landscape: Iraq And Its Insurgent Movements. My work has been published in Iraq via AK News, Al-Mada, Sotaliraq, All Iraq News, and Ur News, and I have been interviewed by Rudaw English. I was interviewed on CCTV and TRT World News TV, and have appeared in CNN, the Christian Science Monitor, The National, Columbia Journalism Review, Mother Jones, PBS’ Frontline, the Center for Strategic and International Studies, the Institute for the Study of War, Radio Free Iraq, and others. I have also been cited in Iraq From war To A New Authoritarianism by Toby Dodge, Imagining the Nation Nationalism, Sectarianism and Socio-Political Conflict in Iraq by Harith al-Qarawee, ISIS Inside the Army of Terror by Michael Weiss and Hassan Hassahn, The Rise of the Islamic State by Patrick Cocburn, and others. If you wish to contact me personally my email is: motown67@aol.com