[…] China is often highlighted as the driving force of potential Arctic shipping developments. However, the analysis of global trade patterns exemplified by China’s current imports and exports and its future outlook show a different picture. China conducts half of its trade with its neighbors in the Pacific region. Europe’s share – which would be relevant for Arctic shipping – is substantially smaller. Less than 20% of China’s trade is bound for or originates in Europe.

Further, the majority of trade between China and Europe is of a containerized nature, which, most experts agree, will not be routed through the Arctic Ocean, due to the seasonality of Arctic transit routes, limited reliability and predictability, and the lack of infrastructure. [Source]

That the route is controlled and subsidized by Russia brings further uncertainty, Keil and Raspotnik add. “One thing that makes me nervous is that this route is in Russia’s hands,” a Norwegian shipping executive told The Financial Times last week. “If they suddenly want to triple rates or impose this condition or that condition, they can.”