Why Vegas Likes Alabama in New Orleans

During the LSU portion of the BCS championship media day Friday, reporters asked about the Tigers’ 13-0 record, their virtual home-field advantage in New Orleans for Monday night’s title game, their November victory over their opponent in that game – and their possible status as one of college football’s greatest all-time teams.

During Alabama’s portion, reporters talked to the team favored by Las Vegas oddsmakers.

Huh?

Despite LSU’s having a better record than Alabama (11-1) and defeating the Tide in the hostile climes of Tuscaloosa, Ala., the betting public and the Vegas numbers men who track the teams give the edge to ‘Bama – by about two points, as of Friday afternoon. The battle between conventional wisdom and Sin City analytics kicks off at 8:30 p.m. ET on ESPN.

Why does Alabama get the edge? For starters, the Tide has a better offense, says Andrew Patterson, an oddsmaker for Las Vegas Sports Consultants, which sets odds used by most of the sports books in Las Vegas. On Nov. 5 these teams needed overtime to break a 6-6 tie (LSU won, 9-6), so the ability to score a touchdown could make all the difference. Trent Richardson ranks fourth nationally with nearly 132 rushing yards per game.

Meanwhile LSU’s two-pronged quarterback attack has been one of its few inconsistencies. Jarrett Lee started the first nine games, including the victory over Alabama. Jordan Jefferson subbed for Lee after Lee threw a second interception in that game, started the rest of the season and will start Monday.

Second, Patterson says, Alabama’s Nick Saban is a better coach than LSU’s Les Miles (even though Miles is 3-2 against Saban). Third, in the parallel universe of Vegas oddsmaking, Alabama actually won its game against the Tigers. You see, oddsmakers keep meticulous ratings of each team, and Alabama has led Patterson’s all year.

“I have a hard time saying that LSU won that game,” Patterson said, despite the minor point of reality contradicting him. “I would argue that they did lose the game statistically against Alabama when they played in November. I’m a Michigan alum and it’s real easy for me to say Virginia Tech beat Michigan in the Sugar Bowl.”

The Hokies didn’t, actually. The Wolverines won 23-20 on a field goal in overtime, despite being outgained by Virginia Tech (377 yards to 184) and eking out 12 first downs to the Hokies’ 22. But Patterson’s point is the same: In both games, the better team lost.

Perhaps the contradiction between the teams’ recent history and the title game’s predicted outcome sprouts from the teams’ impenetrable defenses. Alabama and LSU rank No. 1 and No. 2 nationally in total defense, respectively, and together they create the potential for inscrutable gridlock.

The only certainty in this epic matchup – the Rematch of the Century, as a sign on a New Orleans balcony put it – seems to be that it will be close.

“I’m not trying to say that our offense can’t score. I’m not trying to say their offense can’t score,” Richardson said. “But with our two defenses and how they battle and how they hit, I don’t expect for a blowout game or 45 points up on the scoreboard unless we go into like five overtimes. And I highly doubt that, there.”

Jefferson subbed in, started the rest of LSU’s games and will start Monday.

Comments (5 of 24)

I guess we see how that turned out. Fun reading about how Alabama fans were.

9:09 am January 9, 2012

Independent Texan wrote:

Obviously this game could go either way. LSU and Bama are clearly head and shoulders above the rest this year. (Sorry Okie St but it's a fact). But I like LSU's intangibles, big play ability on defense and special teams, and the fact that Jefferson and Hilliard are essentially "new weapons" since the last time these teams played. Miles will have the Tigers loose and ready to let it rip. Of course, if Bama wins the turnover battle it could go the other way, but I like LSU, 20 - 13. If the Tigers win they need to be recognized as one of the best college football teams ever. If not I'd still vote them AP national champs for their body of work, which is clearly above Bama's.

3:50 pm January 8, 2012

Whoever wins wrote:

tomorrow nite, it will simply show -- again! -- that NO one plays football up to SEC standards. And includes the Okies. RollTide!

11:23 am January 8, 2012

Bobby wrote:

Andrew Patterson must be the biggest idiot in Las Vegas. By his reasoning West Virginia must have lost to Clemson too. The team with the most points at the end of the game is always the team that wins. Bama only thinks they haven't lost to LSU. On Monday night LSU will end all doubt and silence all the naysayers. Geaux TIGERS>

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