FWIW the Euro weeklies look good for the Eastern US as we enter February.

GaWx on American:

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Folks,Hot off the press *fwiw*. Sure enough, the brand new Euro weeklies are again going with the trend of -NAO in the first half of Feb. They actually suggest a very strong 500 mb warm anomaly centered from S. Greenland into NE Canada and much of N. Canada. The SE US actually has slightly BELOW (yes, you read that correctly) anomalies and the coldest anomalies in just about all of N. America outside of Alaska! eeping hope that this entire winter will not be in the commode but still accepting whatever happens

In week 4, the strongest warm 500 mb anomalies stretch from S. Greenland to NNE Canada north of Hudson Bay. Virtually all of Canada, all of Greenland and the north Atlantic, and the western 2/3 of the US have warm anomalies. Cold is found in most all of Europe. Also, strong cold is centered over the far western Aleutians with below normal over Alaska, the north Pacific, and E. Asia. The eastern 1/3 of the U.S. eastward to Europe as well as MX have slightly below normal anomalies. This could mean storminess near the SE US with the strong block to the north.

The GFS and it's ensembles show the NAO going negative in the long range.

I sure hope it will be cooler for February. We have yet to see accumulating snowfall over here! Granted, it's not unusual to have a snowless winter here, but we've had them for at least the past two winters, so I guess I'm spoiled.

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"Who hath divided a watercourse for the overflowing of waters, or a way for the lightning of thunder; to cause it to rain on the earth, where no man is; on the wilderness, wherein there is no man; to satisfy the desolate and waste ground; and to cause the bud of the tender herb to spring forth? Hath the rain a father? or who hath begotten the drops of dew? Out of whose womb came the ice? and the hoary frost of heaven, who hath gendered it? The waters are hid as with a stone, and the face of the deep is frozen."-Job 38:25-30

I sure hope it will be cooler for February. We have yet to see accumulating snowfall over here! Granted, it's not unusual to have a snowless winter here, but we've had them for at least the past two winters, so I guess I'm spoiled.

Out of curiusity, you didnt get any snow the last two seasons? The last two years were full of systems that went unusually far South and missed the TN Valley

Out of curiusity, you didnt get any snow the last two seasons? The last two years were full of systems that went unusually far South and missed the TN Valley

Oops!! Sorry, what I meant to say there was that the last two years we had accumulating snow over here, and so therefore I am spoiled. Sorry about the ambiguous language there!

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"Who hath divided a watercourse for the overflowing of waters, or a way for the lightning of thunder; to cause it to rain on the earth, where no man is; on the wilderness, wherein there is no man; to satisfy the desolate and waste ground; and to cause the bud of the tender herb to spring forth? Hath the rain a father? or who hath begotten the drops of dew? Out of whose womb came the ice? and the hoary frost of heaven, who hath gendered it? The waters are hid as with a stone, and the face of the deep is frozen."-Job 38:25-30

12Z guidance in better agreement now with ridging out to the West and a trough somewhere in the east as we move into Feb. GFS has been suggesting this for a couple of days now, while the Euro has been burying a cut-off out the West keeping ridging over the East. Here is the latest 12Z Day 8-10 500MB Mean. The GFS has the ridge axis positioned over the Rockies which in return would keep a more dry NW flow aloft over portions of the South with the Eastern trough axis positioned over the eastern seaboard. The Euro is further west and sharper with the ridge axis, which in return has the trough in a more ideal spot for our areas, positioned over the Deep South. Euro at Day 8 looks good with a tall PNA ridge and some energy diving down into the Deep South. Things will change, but guidance is now in better agreement with a ridge in west, trough in east. Positioning of the ridge will be key...

"Who hath divided a watercourse for the overflowing of waters, or a way for the lightning of thunder; to cause it to rain on the earth, where no man is; on the wilderness, wherein there is no man; to satisfy the desolate and waste ground; and to cause the bud of the tender herb to spring forth? Hath the rain a father? or who hath begotten the drops of dew? Out of whose womb came the ice? and the hoary frost of heaven, who hath gendered it? The waters are hid as with a stone, and the face of the deep is frozen."-Job 38:25-30

Sorry, I didn't know exactly how to upload the image, but thanks for that one!

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"Who hath divided a watercourse for the overflowing of waters, or a way for the lightning of thunder; to cause it to rain on the earth, where no man is; on the wilderness, wherein there is no man; to satisfy the desolate and waste ground; and to cause the bud of the tender herb to spring forth? Hath the rain a father? or who hath begotten the drops of dew? Out of whose womb came the ice? and the hoary frost of heaven, who hath gendered it? The waters are hid as with a stone, and the face of the deep is frozen."-Job 38:25-30

True, the one thing I like though is consistency and support the models are showing right now. While this is still around 180 hours or so away, we at least aren't talking about 240+ hours away.

Looking at the 12Z Guidance today it appears we start to see ridging and increasing heights out west once we begin February. Our next time frame to watch looks to be Feb 2-4, GFS drops a short wave trough down the Central Plains into the Southeast, and because of the placement and sharpness of the ridge out west the trough continues to slide out to sea and we don't really get anything going for us other than some light snow/flurries on the back side. Place the PNA ridge further West, sharpen it up a little so it can dig further south, and we might be on to something. Reaching for straws there though...GFS keeps +PNA through the run with heights up into far NW Canada. The 300hr frame of the GFS would be an ideal look at 500MB for some wintry weather across our region. The 12Z GFS ensembles are in good agreement with the OP. 12Z CMC really amps up the ridge and it has some wintry weather for the northern portions of the Southeast in the Feb 2-4 time period. At hour 180 we have some energy sliding down the ridge over the Central Plains. 12Z Euro wasn't as impressive as the 0Z run, but it's still in good agreement with the rest of the models in popping a +PNA early Feb.

Too early to tell, kind of a what and see thing. Have to see how the evolution of +PNA, ifit occurs. GFS past two runs has been giving NC some snow early Feb FWIW.

Thank You, I was wondering about that I know nothing, LOL about maps and such, I mainly lurk and read and try to learn a little something, Im in Charlotte and the forcast on Feb 5 is for freezing rain at night with a low of 21 Im just waiting and seeing we don't see too much in way of winter weather here in Charlotte, It usually doesn't stick aroung long if we do get something, It is nice to see a pretty snowfall tho

Long range looks good on 18Z GFS. Too early to get too excited right now, but I'm starting to feel pretty confident that Feb may be a good month for us. GFS has had quite the impressive heights out west, with the ridge all the up into far NW Canada. PV rotating in SE Canada keeping the storm track suppressed,and helping to establish possible blocking/-NAO (300+ hours out though). We are going to have to take this day by day, to see how the +PNA develops, position and sharpness plays an important role...

Based on latest model guidance over the past couple of days, if they are even remotely close to what they are depicting, I'll be shocked if we go through Feb without at least one major snow for someone in this region...

THE 3 PM SURFACE ANALYSIS FEATURED A COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROMCENTRAL MINNESOTA...WESTERN IOWA...CENTRAL KANSAS...TO CENTRALOKLAHOMA. A MILD...ZONAL PACIFIC AIRMASS RESIDES BEHIND THE FRONTWITH LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURE OR DEW POINT ON EITHER SIDE. THEWIND IS THE BIGGER STORY WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 30 TO 45 KNOTS OVERTHE CENTRAL PLAINS DUE TO A 1038 MB HIGH BUILDING BEHIND THEFRONT. THAT WILL ESSENTIALLY BE THE STORY FOR THE MIDSOUTH AS THEFRONT PUSHES THROUGH LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. WINDSWON/T BE QUITE AS STRONG...BUT GUSTS TO 30 OR 35 MPH APPEARPROBABLE. INCREASING CLOUDS HAVE BEEN EVIDENT ALREADY TODAY WITHTHAT TREND EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL THE FROPA. DOES NOT APPEARTO BE A PRECIP PRODUCER...EXCEPT PERHAPS A SMALL RISK OF LIGHTRAIN ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN AREAS CLOSER TO THE BETTER DYNAMICSIN MISSOURI/ILLINOIS. REMOVED THE CHANCE FOR SNOW DUE TOTEMPERATURES RESIDING IN THE UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S.

SATURDAY WILL BE SOMEWHAT COOLER...BUT NOTHING DRASTIC FOR THISTIME OF YEAR. DRY ADIABATIC CONDITIONS AND 925 MB TEMPS NEAR 0CFAVOR MID TO UPPER 40S AT THE SURFACE. THUS...FOLLOWED THE COOLERSIDE OF MOS.

BY SUNDAY...THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE GULF COASTSTATES WITH A WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING OVER THE MIDSOUTH.NO MOISTURE ADVECTION EXPECTED DUE TO THE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSSTHE GULF SO CLEAR SKIES SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY.

THE HIGH WILL PUSH EAST AND BECOME THE BERMUDA VARIETY FOR THEEXTENDED. A PROLONGED FETCH OF CARIBBEAN AIR WILL WORK ITS WAYNORTH THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH WARMER AND MORE HUMIDCONDITIONS EXPECTED BY TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. A WEAK FRONT WILL SAGSOUTH DURING THIS TIME WITH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCESINCREASING. THE WEAKNESS OF THE FRONT DOESN/T LEND WELL TOWIDESPREAD ACTIVITY...BUT MORE SPOTTY STUFF. BY WEDNESDAYNIGHT...MODELS APPEAR TO DEVELOP A SYSTEM NEAR THE MIDSOUTH SHOULDPROVIDE MORE FOCUS FOR ACTIVITY...THUS HIGHEST POPS HAVE BEENRAISED DURING THIS PERIOD.

LONG RANGE MODELS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR A DEEP TROUGH TO DIGINTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. WITH CYCLONIC FLOW AND SNOW SHOWERACTIVITY FRIDAY AND BEYOND...BUT CONFIDENCE IS MUCH TOO LOW TOBITE ON ATTM.

Good to see some disco talk already anyways,to early to bite though,but hard not to be enthusiastic