This blog presents my short-term and intermediate-term outlook on the financial markets and is dedicated to the All Stars of Market Timing - R. N. Elliott, W. D. Gann, Frank Taucher and Chris Cadbury and many others that have influenced my market methodology.

March 2017

March 30, 2017

Market Observations for the Coming Week: The SPX gapped down at the open Monday into the New Moon Timing Window, tested the 50-day MA, and then rallied back impulsively into Thursdays' close. The SPX finished an EW a-b-c correction from the 3/1 high early Monday and market breadth bullishly diverged during the C-Wave down - this is BULLISH. We're looking for IRA contributions to drive the SPX and DJIA to new highs by 4/15 (Tax Day).

3/30/17 (Commentary for Thursday) Led by energy stocks and financials, the SPX finished an EW 5-wave advance into late Thursday and the NDX made a new all-time high. The daily volume on QQQ and SPY was low (just short covering?) and may indicate a pullback into the last trading day of the month on Friday. The oil stocks and financial stocks were particularly strong Thursday - we plan to buy dips in oil stocks and financials stocks early Friday - we are looking for a test of the market highs going into 4/15 (Tax Day) as IRA contributions flow in for the year. Crude oil continued to rally impulsively into Thursday's close - we may have started a substantial bounce. We plan to buy XOM or XLE on dips. Gold peaked on the New Moon and continues to trace out a 3-wave correction on the hourly chart - the ideal setup would be for the metals to pullback while the gold stocks show relative strength into 4/4, the 55-day Fibonacci step out from the 2/8 high in the GDX. The Dollar Index may have finished an EW 5-wave rally from early Monday and looks ready for a pullback.

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) - The SPX and DJIA finished their EW a-b-c correction from 3/1 on Monday in the New Moon Timing Window. We are looking for all-time highs by April 15 in the SPX.

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) - We got an important trading low in gold on 3/10 in the Full Moon Timing Window and finished an EW 5-wave rally into Monday's New Moon, but weakness in gold stocks argues for a pullback into 4/4, the 55-day Fibonacci step out from the 2/8 GDX high - Patience.

Stocks - The SPX made a 5-wave advance from early Monday on the back of oil stocks and financials - we plan to buy dips in QQQ, BAC and XLE.

Gold - Gold is declining in 3-waves from the New Moon high and we are targeting 4/4 for a tradable low - we want to see gold and silver stocks show relative strength into 4/4.

March 29, 2017

Market Observations for the Coming Week: The SPX gapped down at the open Monday into the New Moon Timing Window, tested the 50-day MA, and then rallied back impulsively into Tuesday's close. The SPX finished an EW a-b-c correction from the 3/1 high early Monday and market breadth bullishly diverged during the C-Wave down - this is BULLISH. We're looking for IRA contributions to drive the SPX and DJIA to new highs by 4/15 (Tax Day).

3/29/17 (Commentary for Wednesday) The NDX, SPX and XLE all made important lows early Monday and have rallied impulsively into Wednesday's close - this is BULLISH. The oil stocks and FANG stocks were particularly strong Wednesday - we plan to buy dips in oil stocks and financials stocks on Thursday - we are looking for a test of the market highs going into 4/15 (Tax Day) as IRA contributions flow in for the year. Market breadth improved notably last week on down days and that argues that we started a new rally phase early Monday in the SPX. Our TRIN5 indicator went above 7 last week (very oversold) and our Option Premium Ratio hit a six month high for a possible intermediate low - we may have seen an important low Monday morning. The potential slow down of the Trump agenda over the failure of the AHCA bill is being brushed off by the market as gains are being made in business deregulation, and we think that we have started at least a retest of the 3/1 SPX high. Crude oil made a low early in the New Moon Timing Window and rallied impulsively into late Wednesday - we may have started a substantial bounce. We plan to buy XOM or SLB on dips. Gold peaked on the New Moon and continues to trace out a 3-wave correction on the hourly chart - the ideal setup would be for the metals to pullback while the gold stocks hold up. The Dollar Index continued to bounce on Wednesday after making a low in the New Moon Timing Window.

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) - The SPX and DJIA may have finished their EW a-b-c correction from 3/1 on Monday in the New Moon Timing Window. We are looking for all-time highs by April 15 in the SPX.

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) - We got an important trading low in gold on 3/10 in the Full Moon Timing Window and finished an EW 5-wave rally into Monday's New Moon, but weakness in gold stocks argues for a pullback into April - Patience.

Stocks - The NDX and XLE made 5-wave rallies from early Monday into Wednesday's close - we plan to buy the QQQ and XLE on weakness.

Gold - Gold is declining in 3-waves from the New Moon high - we want to see gold and silver stocks show relative strength on this decline.

Silver – Silver made higher highs after the passing of the New Moon - bullish - we would like to see silver stocks to show some relative strength.

Crude Oil - Crude oil has rallied in 5-waves off the New Moon low on the hourly chart - we plan to buy oil stocks on dips.

Bonds - US bonds made a top in the New Moon and just a 3-wave decline into late Tuesday before a bounce on Wednesday - the tape on Thursday will tell us the fate of the safety trade here.

Dollar Index – The $DXY bottomed on the New Moon and rallied impulsively into Wednesday and the Yen declined in 5-waves on the hourly - the USD has started a large corrective rally.

March 28, 2017

Market Observations for the Coming Week: The SPX gapped down at the open Monday into the New Moon Timing Window, tested the 50-day MA, and then fought back to close slightly down. The SPX finished an EW a-b-c correction from the 3/1 high and market breadth bullishly diverged during the C-Wave down which finished early Monday - this is BULLISH. We're looking for IRA contributions to drive the SPX and DJIA to new highs by 4/15 (Tax Day).

3/28/17 (Commentary for Tuesday) The SPX opened weak and then rallied to continue the bounce from the early Monday low in the New Moon Timing Window. Both the SPY and QQQ gave us a Positive Volume Reversal Day - this is BULLISH. The financials and energy sector were particularly strong Tuesday - we plan to buy dips in oil stocks and financials stocks on Wednesday. We bought early weakness on Tuesday in financials, SPY, QQQ and IWM - we are looking for a test of the highs going into 4/15 (Tax Day) as IRA contributions flow in for the year. Market breadth improved notably last week on down days and that argues that we started a new rally phase early Monday in the SPX. Our TRIN5 indicator went above 7 last week (very oversold) and our Option Premium Ratio hit a six month high for a possible intermediate low - we may have seen an important low Monday morning. The potential slow down of the Trump agenda over the failure of the AHCA bill weighed heavily on the market early Monday, but we think that we started at least a retest of the 3/1 SPX high. Crude oil made a low early in the New Moon Timing Window and rallied in 5-waves into late Tuesday - we may have started a substantial bounce - we plan to buy COP, XOM or SLB on dips. We continue to trade UVXY calls intra-day to hedge downside risk in the SPX if we get a good pattern set up. Gold peaked on the New Moon and pulled back in a 3-wave pullback so far on the hourly chart - the ideal setup would be for the metals to pullback while the gold stocks hold up. The Dollar Index continued to bounce on Tuesday after making a low in the New Moon Timing Window.

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) - The SPX and DJIA may have finished their EW a-b-c correction from 3/1 on Monday in the New Moon Timing Window. We are looking for all-time highs by April in the SPX.

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) - We got an important trading low in gold on 3/10 in the Full Moon Timing Window and finished an EW 5-wave rally into Monday's New Moon, but weakness in gold stocks argues for a pullback into April - Patience.

Stocks - We got Positive Volume Reversal Days for the SPY and QQQ today - we plan to buy financial and energy stocks on weakness.

Gold - Gold has declined in 3-waves from the New Moon high - we want to see gold and silver stocks show relative strength on this decline.

Silver – Silver made higher highs after the passing of the New Moon - bullish - we would like to see silver stocks to show some relative strength.

Crude Oil - Crude oil has rallied in 5-waves off the New Moon low on the hourly chart - we plan to buy oil stocks on dips.

Bonds - US bonds made a top in the New Moon and just a 3-wave decline into Tuesday - the tape on Wednesday will tell us the fate of the safety trade here.

Dollar Index – The $DXY bottomed on the New Moon and bounced hard on Tuesday - Wednesday's tape will tell us a lot.

March 27, 2017

Market Observations for the Coming Week: The SPX gapped down at the open Monday into the New Moon Timing Window, tested the 50-day MA, and then fought back to close slightly down. The SPX finished an EW a-b-c correction from the 3/1 high and market breadth bullishly diverged during the C-Wave down which finished this morning - this is BULLISH. We bought weakness in the financials, IWM, and QQQ early today. We're looking for IRA contributions to drive the SPX and DJIA to new highs by 4/15 (Tax Day).

3/27/17 (Commentary for Monday) Did the Trump rally roll over on 3/1 or is the recent market correction just a pause? The market needed a quick and scary correction to rebalance sentiment, and we may have seen the end of it today in the New Moon Timing Window. The SPX and DJIA tested their 50-day MAs and reversed sharply higher into the close. We bought weakness on Monday in financials, QQQ and IWM - we are looking for a test of the highs going into 4/15 (Tax Day) as IRA contributions flow in for the year. Market breadth improved notably last week on down days and that argues that we started a new rally phase early today in the SPX. Our TRIN5 indicator went above 7 last week (very oversold) and our Option Premium Ratio hit a six month high for a possible intermediate low - we may have seen an important low this morning. The potential slow down of the Trump agenda over the failure of the AHCA bill weighed heavily on the market early Monday, but we think that we started at least a tradable bounce today. Crude oil made a low in today's New Moon Timing Window and rallied hard into the close - we added XOM calls this morning on the open. The bearish crude oil COTs still cast a pallor over this market - we will watch oil stocks closely on Tuesday for impulsive action to the upside. We continue to trade UVXY calls intra-day to hedge downside risk in the SPX if we get a good pattern set up. Gold finished an EW 5-wave rally from 3/10 early Monday and reversed hard into the close - weakness in gold stocks argues for more correction in the PM complex. The Dollar Index finished 5-waves down on the hourly chart early Monday and started a bounce - this should pressure the PM sector.

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) - The SPX and DJIA may have finished their EW a-b-c correction from 3/1 on Monday in the New Moon Timing Window. We are looking for all-time highs by April in the SPX.

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) - We got an important trading low in gold on 3/10 in the Full Moon Timing Window and finished an EW 5-wave rally into Monday's New Moon, but weakness in gold stocks argues for a pullback into April - Patience.

Stocks - We got our 5th wave of C down early today on the New Moon - we are looking to buy early weakness on Tuesday in the financials, QQQ and the IWM.

Gold - Gold finished an EW 5-waves up from 3/10 on Monday's New Moon but weakness in the GDX argues for more pullback in the PM sector into April.

Silver – Silver rallied hard into the New Moon today and started a sideways correction.

Crude Oil - Crude oil declined into the New Moon today and rebounded impulsively higher - we plan to buy XOM and COP calls on dips.

Bonds - US bonds made a top in today's New Moon - we're looking for more decline on Tuesday.

Dollar Index – The $DXY finished 5-waves down on the hourly in Monday's New Moon and we bounced higher - this should pressure the PM complex.

March 26, 2017

Market Observations for the Coming Week: The SPY may have made a Wave 5 of C low late Friday as the House vote on the AHCA was pulled. The market breadth has been bullishly diverging during the C-Wave down of an EW a-b-c decline from 3/1 - this is BULLISH. We're looking to buy weakness in the financials, biotech, and QQQ going into the 3/27-3/29 turn window. We're looking for IRA contributions to drive the SPX and DJIA to new highs by 4/15 (Tax Day).

3/26/17 (Commentary for Sunday) We are very close to to a price low in the EW a-b-c correction from 3/1 for the SPX and DJIA - we may have seen the low late Friday when the AHCA vote was pulled. The market needed a quick and scary correction to rebalance sentiment and we may have seen most of it - we're looking to buy weakness on Monday in financials and biotech - we are looking for a test of the highs going into 4/15 (Tax Day) as IRA contributions flow in for the year. Market breadth improved notably last week on down days and that argues for a rally phase to start early in the week. Our TRIN5 indicator went above 7 last week (very oversold) and our Option Premium Ratio hit a six month high for a possible intermediate low - we're looking for an important market low early this week. The potential slow down of the Trump agenda over the failure of the AHCA bill weighed heavily on the market Friday, but we think that we are close to at least a tradable bounce. Crude oil continues to hold support at $47 but more down looks in the cards going into mid-April as the bearish COTs cast a pallor over this market - we will watch oil stocks closely on Monday for bullish divergence. We continue to trade UVXY calls intra-day to hedge downside risk in the SPX if we get a good pattern set up. Gold finished an EW 5-wave rally from 3/10 Wednesday and continues to hold up today, but a reversal down today in the GDX/GLD argues for near-term weakness in the PM complex. The Dollar Index finished 5-waves down on the hourly chart Wednesday but continues to look weak - Monday's trade will be illuminating.

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) - The SPX and DJIA are close to finishing their EW a-b-c correction from 3/1. Our bias is for a trading low early this week - we plan to buy financials and biotech. We are looking for all-time highs by April in the SPX.

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) - We got an important trading low in gold on 3/10 in the Full Moon Timing Window and finished an EW 5-wave rally into Wednesday (the 21-day Fibonacci step out), but weakness in gold stocks argues for a pullback into April - Patience.

Stocks - We're still looking for a 5th wave of C down by Friday/Monday in the SPX to finish an EW a-b-c correction from 3/1 - we are looking to buy early weakness on Monday in the financials and the biotech.

Gold - Gold finished an EW 5-waves up from 3/10 on Wednesday but weakness in the GDX argues for more pullback in the PM sector into April.

Silver – Silver continued to grind higher bullishly on Friday.

Crude Oil - Crude oil still held above $47 on Friday, but we may see another leg down into mid-April.

Bonds - US bonds made an EW 5-wave advance on the hourly into 3/20 and keeps sub-dividing up impulsively - we plan to buy TLT calls on dips.

Dollar Index – The $DXY finished 5-waves down on the hourly Wednesday but still looks weak - a lack of a bounce Monday will be bearish.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this week is 3/27-3/28 - the New Moon Timing Window.

March 23, 2017

Market Observations for the Coming Week: The XLF (financials) and SPX continued to bounce in a 4th wave today on the hourly chart - a 5th wave down below Tuesday's lows into Friday/Monday is still a possibility. Our bias is that some form of the AHCA will pass by next week and it will be hailed as a "REPEAL/REPLACE bill" for Obamacare.

3/23/17 (Commentary for Thursday) The SPX and XLF still need a 5th wave down on the hourly charts to finish off a minimal EW a-b-c correction from the 3/1 highs - our bias is to buy biotech and financials on dips. The market needed a quick and scary correction to rebalance sentiment and we are working on that, however, we favor an extended sideways correction into April. Our bias remains that the SPX and DJIA are doing a sideways (Wave 4) correction on the daily chart and that we will start a 5th wave high to new all-time highs into the summer sometime in April. The question now is how long will the current Wave 4 last - our bias is for 4/5 or 4/26 - we plan to be nimble traders of dips along the way. Weakness in crude oil and weakness in the financials has led the way down, but biotech shares were also weak Thursday after the delay in the AHCA vote in the Republican-controlled House. The potential slow down of the Trump agenda over the complexities of the AHCA act still weighs heavily on the market here, but we think that we are close to a tradable bounce. Crude oil continues to test support at $47 and more down looks in the cards going into mid-April as the bearish COTs cast a pallor over this market. We continue to day trade UVXY calls to hedge downside risk in the SPX. Gold finished an EW 5-wave rally from 3/10 Wednesday and continued to hold up today, but a strong reversal down today in the GDX argues for near-term weakness. The Dollar Index finished 5-waves down on the hourly chart Wednesday but continues to look weak - Friday's trade will be illuminating.

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) - The SPX and DJIA are making a EW a-b-c correction (wave 4) from the 3/1 high on the daily chart - we started Wave 3 of C down on Tuesday and then a 4th wave bounce on Wednesday/Thursday. We could see a Wave 5 of C down by Friday/Monday before a spirited bounce in an ongoing correction. Our bias is for an important low sometime in April and then a rally to all-time highs by June in the SPX.

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) - We got an important trading low in gold on 3/10 in the Full Moon Timing Window and finished an EW 5-wave rally into Wednesday, but weakness in gold stocks argues for a pullback soon.

Stocks - We're still looking for a 5th wave of C down by Friday/Monday to finish an EW a-b-c correction from 3/1 and then a spirited bounce.

Gold - Gold finished an EW 5-waves up from 3/10 on Wednesday but today's pullback in the GDX argues for short-term weakness in the PM sector.

Silver – Silver continues to grind higher bullishly.

Crude Oil - Looks like crude oil wants to break the $47 support level - we may see another leg down into mid-April.

Bonds - US bonds made an EW 5-wave advance on the hourly into Monday and keeps sub-dividing up impulsively - we plan to buy TLT calls on dips.

Dollar Index – The $DXY finished 5-waves down on the hourly Wednesday but still looks weak - a lack of a bounce Friday will be bearish.

March 22, 2017

Market Observations for the Coming Week: The XLF (financials) and SPX bounced in a 4th wave today on the hourly chart - we're looking for a 5th wave down below Tuesday's lows on Thursday before a bigger bounce. The House vote on the AHCA will dominate the price action on Thursday.

3/22/17 (Commentary for Wednesday) The SPX and XLF need a 5th wave down on the hourly charts to finish off a minimal EW a-b-c correction from the 3/1 highs. The market needs a quick and scary correction to rebalance sentiment and we are working on that. Our bias remains that the SPX and DJIA are doing a sideways (Wave 4 ) correction on the daily chart and that we will start a 5th wave high into all-time highs into the summer. The question now is how long will the current Wave 4 last - our bias is for 4/5 or 4/26 - we plan to be nimble traders of dips along the way. Weakness in crude oil and weakness in the financials has led the way down, but biotech shares were also weak Tuesday on rumors that the AHCA is lacking consensus among Republican lawmakers as we come up for a vote on Thursday. The potential slow down of the Trump agenda over the complexities of the AHCA act still weighs heavily on the market here. Crude oil bounced on support at $47 today but more down looks in the cards going into mid-April as the bearish COTs cast a pallor over this market. We added some UVXY calls late today as the SPX appeared close to ending a Wave 4 of C bounce. Gold may have finished an EW 5-wave rally from 3/10 today - we could see more pullback on Thursday. The Dollar Index finished 5-waves down on the hourly chart Wednesday - we should get a bounce on Thursday.

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) - The SPX and DJIA are making a EW a-b-c correction (wave 4) from the 3/1 high on the daily chart - we started Wave 3 of C down on Tuesday and then a 4th wave bounce on Wednesday. We could see a Wave 5 of C down early Thursday. Our bias is for an important low sometime in April and then a rally to all-time highs by June in the SPX.

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) - We got an important trading low in gold on 3/10 in the Full Moon Timing Window and finished an EW 5-wave rally into today - we're looking for a pullback on Thursday.

Stocks - The SPX needs a 5th wave of C down to finish an EW a-b-c correction from 3/1. We're looking for a test of SPX 2320 by Thursday and then a bounce.

Gold - Gold may have finished an EW 5-waves up from 3/10 - we sold our NEM and NUGT calls today and are waiting for a corrective pullback.

Silver – Silver could pull back on Thursday but looks very bullish to us.

Crude Oil - We tested support at $47 today and bounced, but we may see another leg down into mid-April.

Bonds - US bonds made an EW 5-wave advance on the hourly into Monday and keeps sub-dividing up impulsively - we plan to buy TLT calls on dips.

Dollar Index – The $DXY finished 5-waves down on the hourly Wednesday - we're looking for a bounce Thursday.

March 21, 2017

Market Observations for the Coming Week: The XLF (financials) took out Monday's low and that was a trip wire for an extended correction in price. The SPX took out Monday's highs near the open and then reversed down hard. The Tuesday after a monthly expiration is a turning point day in our work and we made a high on the open today - we are looking for more correction into Wednesday.

3/21/17 (Commentary for Tuesday) We had the worst down day of the year for the stock market - the Russell 2000 declined by 2.75% The lowest non-holiday volume for the QQQ on Monday in many years was a sign of bearish complacency. The market needs a quick and scary correction to rebalance sentiment. Our bias remains that the SPX and DJIA are doing a sideways (Wave 4 ) correction on the daily chart and we may have started a Wave 3 of C down early Tuesday from the 3/1 high. Weakness in crude oil and weakness in the financials has led the way down, but biotech shares were also weak today on rumors that the AHCA is lacking consensus among Republican lawmakers and this bill may not come up for a vote on Thursday. The financials (XLF) have been weak since the SPX high on 3/1, but taking out Monday's low today started a Wave 3 of C down today in the XLF. The potential slow down of the Trump agenda over the complexities of the AHCA act weighed heavily on the market today. Crude oil may have finished an EW a-b-c correction today - how we trade on Wednesday will be key. We added some UVXY calls early today as we noticed that the ISEE call/put ratio was showing euphoric call buying on the SPX decline early Tuesday. Gold rallied hard on Tuesday and is close to finishing an EW 5-wave rally from 3/10. The Dollar Index is close to finishing 5-waves down on the hourly chart- we may get a low on Wednesday.

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) - The SPX and DJIA are making a EW a-b-c correction (wave 4) from the 3/1 high on the daily chart - we started Wave 3 of C down on Tuesday. The QQQ opened on a high early Tuesday and this argues that a peak was made in the 3/21-3/22 turn window - we're looking for more correction.

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) - We got an important trading low in gold on 3/10 in the Full Moon Timing Window and we are working on an EW 5-wave rally into Wednesday.

Stocks - The SPX started a Wave 3 of C down from the 3/1 high - we are finally getting our scary C-Wave down. We're holding some UVXY calls overnight and some SPY, QQQ and IWM puts. We're looking for a test of SPX 2320 by Thursday.

Gold - Gold may have made an important intermediate low at $1194.5 on 3/10 and we are an EW 5-waves up since then - we are holding some NEM and NUGT calls into Wednesday.

Silver – Silver made a low at $16.785 on 3/15 and is reversing higher - we are long some SLV calls into Wednesday.

Crude Oil - The COTs look very bearish - we sold our COP and SLB calls today - a break below $47 in crude oil could take us to $45 very quickly.

Bonds - US bonds made an EW 5-wave advance on the hourly into Monday and keep sub-dividing up impulsively - we plan to buy TLT calls on dips.

Dollar Index – The $DXY is close to 5-waves down on the hourly - we're looking for a low by Wednesday or Thursday.

March 20, 2017

Market Observations for the Coming Week: The SPX and DJIA are tracing out a sideways correction into the 3/21-3/22 turn window. We are looking for a reversal up by 3/21, the Tuesday after a monthly expiration is a turning point day in our work. The financials may have ended a mild EW a-b-c correction on Monday.

3/20/17 (Commentary for Monday) Our bias is that the SPX and DJIA are doing a sideways (Wave 4 ) correction from 3/1 that could end by the 3/21-3/22 turn window. The stock market could make higher highs into 4/15 (Tax Day) before a significant correction. The financials (XLF) have been weak since the SPX high on 3/1, but we may have ended a mild EW a-b-c correction on Monday. The market remains a tough short here as IRA inflows continue into 4/15. The potential slow down of the Trump agenda with the complexities of the AHCA act is still a threat to the market in the short-term, but you have to respect the resiliency of this bull market. Crude oil made a low in the orb of the Full Moon/solar eclipse and rallied in 5-waves into Wednesday's close - we're inclined to buy dips in the oil stocks on Tuesday. Our tactic now is to buy dips in oil stocks, steel stocks and biotech. The GDX started correcting Thursday - we're looking for a leg down into the 3/21-3/22 turn window. The Dollar Index is close to finishing 5-waves down on the hourly chart- we may get a low on Tuesday.

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) - The SPX and DJIA are making a EW a-b-c correction (wave 4) from the 3/1 high that could end in the 3/21-3/22 turn window. The SPX could make higher highs going into the 4/15 tax day on the weight of stock inflows into IRA accounts.

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) - We got an important trading low in gold on 3/10 in the Full Moon Timing Window and in silver on 3/15 - we may have started an important rally in the PM sector, but more sideways action is likely going into early April where a Fibonacci cluster is due.

Stocks - The SPX is giving us a small correction into the 3/21-3/22 turn window, and the XLF(financials) may have ended an EW a-b-c correction on Monday. We added FAS calls today.

Gold - Gold may have made an important intermediate low at $1194.5 - but more sideways action is needed into early April.

Silver – Silver may be giving us just an EW a-b-c correction from the important 2/28 high - we plan to buy dips in SLW calls on down days.

Crude Oil - Crude oil may have made an important low near the Full Moon, but the COTs look very bearish - we still hold some COP and SLB calls, but a break below $47 in crude oil could take us to $45 very quickly.

Bonds - US bonds made an EW 5-wave advance on the hourly into Monday - we have a short-term bullish bias.

Dollar Index – The $DXY is close to 5-waves down on the hourly - we're looking for a low by Tuesday.

March 19, 2017

Market Observations for the Coming Week: The SPX and NDX appear to be tracing out a small correction into the March monthly expiration turn window. We are looking for a reversal up by 3/22, the Tuesday after a monthly expiration is a turning point day in our work. The financials may have ended a mild EW a-b-c correction on Friday.

3/19/17 (Commentary for Sunday) Our bias is that the stock market will hold up into 4/15 (Tax Day) before a significant correction. The financials (XLF) have been weak since the SPX high on 3/1, but we may have ended a mild EW a-b-c correction on Friday - we like financials on any further weakness into 3/21. The NDX made an all-time high on the dovish spin from Yellen Wednesday, but the SPX and DJIA failed to make new highs for a case of bearish divergence. Still, the market remains a tough short here as IRA inflows continue into 4/15. The potential slow down of the Trump agenda with the complexities of the AHCA act is still a threat to the market in the short-term, but you have to respect the resiliency of this bull market. Crude oil made a low in the orb of the Full Moon/solar eclipse and rallied in 5-waves into Wednesday's close - we're inclined to buy dips in the oil stocks on Monday. The VIX took out multi-week lows, and the market remains a difficult short here, but the ISEE call/put ratio reached euphoric levels during the day and this does not bode well for a sustained market advance in the short term. Our tactic now is to buy dips in oil stocks and steel stocks. The GDX started correcting Thursday - more sideways activity is possible into the 3/21 turn window. The Dollar Index is close to finishing 5-waves down on the hourly chart- we may get a bounce by Monday.

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) - The NDX closed at new all-time highs after the FOMC rate hike but the DJIA and SPX bearishly diverged. Euphoric ISEE call/put ratios are screaming that a C-Wave down in the SPX from the 3/1 high is still a risk going forward. Overall, we still expect that the SPX will hold up into the 4/15 tax day on the weight of stock inflows into IRA accounts.

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) - We got an important trading low in gold on 3/10 in the Full Moon Timing Window and in silver on 3/15 - we may have started an important rally in the PM sector, but more sideways action is likely going into late March.

Stocks - The SPX may be giving us a small correction into the 3/21 turn window, and the XLF(financials) may have ended an EW a-b-c correction on Friday. We will watch the financials closely on Monday.

Gold - Gold may have made an important intermediate low at $1194.5 - but we may see more sideways action going into next week.

Silver – Silver may be giving us just an EW a-b-c correction from the important 2/28 high - we plan to buy dips in SLW calls on down days.

Crude Oil - Crude oil may have made an important low near the Full Moon, but the COTs look very bearish and a break of $47 could take us to $45 very quickly.

Bonds - US bonds made an EW 5-wave advance on the hourly- we have a short-term bullish bias.

Dollar Index – The $DXY is close to 5-waves down on the hourly - we're looking for a bounce by Monday.