South Carolina: Early primaries put pressure on GOP

Richard S. Dunham, Houston Chronicle

Published 4:00 am, Tuesday, October 4, 2011

Washington --

South Carolina's decision Monday to move up its Republican presidential primary to Jan. 21 is the latest inevitable step toward a front-loaded nominating process that will change every GOP candidate's political calculus.

With Iowa and New Hampshire, the first two states to choose delegates, likely to shift their votes to early January, the GOP nomination process will start earlier than ever before and move very quickly. The jackrabbit schedule gives an extra edge to candidates with extensive grassroots organizations, sufficient cash for expensive television advertising buys and a steady hand on the campaign trail, presidential scholars say.

For Rick Perry's late-starting campaign, it means added pressure to effectively deal with the missteps and controversies that have ended his stint as the campaign's front-runner. It also gives the Texas governor less time to overcome other candidates' organizational advantages in the early voting states of Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina and Florida.

"It comes down to turnout," says Anthony Pedicini, a Republican strategist based in Tampa, Fla. "These guys have 90 days to get organized, and I think they're far from it."

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South Carolina's decision came days after Florida moved its primary from March 6 to Jan. 31. Both states' decisions flout Republican National Committee rules, which prohibit states other than Iowa and New Hampshire from picking delegates before March 6.

Iowa is expected to move its first-in-the-nation caucuses to Jan. 3 and New Hampshire is likely to schedule its primary on Jan. 10 or 14. Nevada has vowed to hold its caucuses four days after Granite State voters cast their ballots.

Perry's immediate challenge is to build his political ground game by organizing at the local level in the early states, where Minnesota Rep. Michele Bachmann has an edge in Iowa and former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney has the deepest squad of workers in New Hampshire and Florida. Perry entered the race in August, while Romney has been running for nearly six years and others have been building campaign teams for more than six months.

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"Perry has gotten into the game a little bit late," said Andy Smith, associate professor of political science at the University of New Hampshire. "You can't just flip the switch and have an organization."

What's more, experts say, Perry needs to reverse the mainstream media story line about a campaign in free fall. Pundits' predictions of gloom were reinforced by two new polls in Florida showing Perry's support collapsing after two unsteady debate performances in the Sunshine State and Georgia businessman Herman Cain soaring into second place behind Romney.