Career Summary

MLB Statistics

Historical (past-seasons) WARP is now based on DRA..
cFIP and DRA are not available on a by-team basis and display as zeroes(0). See TOT line for season totals of these stats.Multiple stints are are currently shown —Click to hide.

YEAR

Team

Lg

G

GS

IP

W

L

SV

H

BB

SO

HR

oppTAv

PPF

H/9

BB/9

HR/9

K/9

GB%

BABIP

TAv

WHIP

FIP

ERA

cFIP

DRA

DRA-

WARP

1890

CL4

MLB

17

16

147.7

9

7

0

145

30

39

6

.000

8.8

1.8

0.4

2.4

0%

-1.675

.000

1.19

3.43

3.47

0

0.00

0.0

0.0

1891

CL4

MLB

55

46

423.7

27

22

2

431

140

147

4

.000

9.2

3.0

0.1

3.1

0%

-1.419

.000

1.35

2.90

2.85

0

0.00

0.0

0.0

1892

CL4

MLB

53

49

453.0

36

12

0

363

118

168

8

.000

7.2

2.3

0.2

3.3

0%

-1.175

.000

1.06

2.76

1.93

0

0.00

0.0

0.0

1893

CL4

MLB

53

46

422.7

34

16

1

442

103

102

10

.000

9.4

2.2

0.2

2.2

0%

-1.920

.000

1.29

3.87

3.36

0

0.00

0.0

0.0

1894

CL4

MLB

52

47

408.7

26

21

1

488

106

108

19

.000

10.7

2.3

0.4

2.4

0%

-1.962

.000

1.45

4.71

3.94

0

0.00

0.0

0.0

1895

CL4

MLB

47

40

369.7

35

10

0

363

75

121

10

.000

8.8

1.8

0.2

2.9

0%

-1.650

.000

1.18

3.95

3.26

0

0.00

0.0

0.0

1896

CL4

MLB

51

46

414.3

28

15

3

477

62

140

7

.000

10.4

1.3

0.2

3.0

0%

-2.136

.000

1.30

3.36

3.24

0

0.00

0.0

0.0

1897

CL4

MLB

46

38

335.7

21

19

0

391

49

88

7

.000

10.5

1.3

0.2

2.4

0%

-2.510

.000

1.31

3.58

3.78

0

0.00

0.0

0.0

1898

CL4

MLB

46

41

377.7

25

13

0

387

41

101

6

.000

9.2

1.0

0.1

2.4

0%

-2.427

.000

1.13

2.84

2.53

0

0.00

0.0

0.0

1899

SLN

MLB

44

42

369.3

26

16

1

368

44

111

10

.000

9.0

1.1

0.2

2.7

0%

-2.094

.000

1.12

3.09

2.58

0

0.00

0.0

0.0

1900

SLN

MLB

41

35

321.3

19

19

0

337

36

115

7

.000

9.4

1.0

0.2

3.2

0%

-2.050

.000

1.16

2.76

3.00

0

0.00

0.0

0.0

1901

BOS

MLB

43

41

371.3

33

10

0

324

37

158

6

.000

7.9

0.9

0.1

3.8

0%

-1.529

.000

0.97

2.63

1.62

0

0.00

0.0

0.0

1902

BOS

MLB

45

43

384.7

32

11

0

350

53

160

6

.000

8.2

1.2

0.1

3.7

0%

-1.483

.000

1.05

2.69

2.15

0

0.00

0.0

0.0

1903

BOS

MLB

40

35

341.7

28

9

2

294

37

176

6

.000

7.7

1.0

0.2

4.6

0%

-1.263

.000

0.97

2.38

2.08

0

0.00

0.0

0.0

1904

BOS

MLB

43

41

380.0

26

16

1

327

29

200

6

.000

7.7

0.7

0.1

4.7

0%

-1.343

.000

0.94

1.92

1.97

0

0.00

0.0

0.0

1905

BOS

MLB

38

33

320.7

18

19

0

248

30

210

3

.000

7.0

0.8

0.1

5.9

0%

-.976

.000

0.87

1.63

1.82

0

0.00

0.0

0.0

1906

BOS

MLB

39

34

287.7

13

21

2

288

25

140

3

.000

9.0

0.8

0.1

4.4

0%

-1.619

.000

1.09

1.98

3.19

0

0.00

0.0

0.0

1907

BOS

MLB

43

37

343.3

21

15

2

286

51

147

3

.000

7.5

1.3

0.1

3.9

0%

-1.361

.000

0.98

2.11

1.99

0

0.00

0.0

0.0

1908

BOS

MLB

36

33

299.0

21

11

2

230

37

150

1

.000

6.9

1.1

0.0

4.5

0%

.247

.000

0.89

1.67

1.26

0

0.00

0.0

0.0

1909

CLE

MLB

35

34

294.3

19

15

0

267

59

109

4

.000

8.2

1.8

0.1

3.3

0%

.275

.000

1.11

2.41

2.26

0

0.00

0.0

0.0

1910

CLE

MLB

21

20

163.3

7

10

0

149

27

58

0

.000

8.2

1.5

0.0

3.2

0%

.279

.000

1.08

2.11

2.53

0

0.00

0.0

0.0

1911

BSN

0

11

11

80.0

4

5

0

83

15

35

4

.000

9.3

1.7

0.5

3.9

0%

.292

.000

1.23

3.07

3.71

0

0.00

0.0

0.0

1911

CLE

0

7

7

46.3

3

4

0

54

13

20

2

.000

10.5

2.5

0.4

3.9

0%

.327

.000

1.45

3.52

3.88

0

0.00

0.0

0.0

1911

TOT

MLB

18

18

126.3

7

9

0

137

28

55

6

.000

9.8

2.0

0.4

3.9

0%

.000

.000

1.31

3.24

3.78

0

0.00

0.0

0.0

Career

MLB

906

815

7356.0

511

316

17

7092

1217

2803

138

.000

8.7

1.5

0.2

3.4

0%

.000

.000

1.13

2.86

2.63

0

0.00

0.0

0.0

Statistics for All Levels

'opp' stats - Quality of opponents faced - have been moved and are available only as OPP_QUAL in the Statistics reports now.Minor league stats are currently shown —Click to hide.

BP Annual Player Comments

BP Articles

BP Chats

Hey Darius,
Where do you rank Robbie Ray this year and do you think he's a Cy Young contender in 2018?(SteveRossBB from Canberra)

Towards the back end of the top 20. Strikeout potential is obviously still huge, but he didn't make any strides with the walk rate and without a step forwards there, he'll need a big slice of luck again to have elite ratios and be in Cy Young territory. I'll be very happy to be proven wrong! (Darius Austin)

Do you own any shares of Danny Salazar? Could he be the most frustrating pitcher to own in fantasy?(George from Stanford)

I do NOT this year, but I have in the past. He's still got the walkies from time to time and it limits how deep he gets into games. I don't see him being as consistently very good as Carrasco and Kluber. Those guys are a step above (with Kluber a half-step above Carrasco). Maybe a short peak that's really good. MAYYYYBE one year where he seriously contends for Cy Young, but I see limits. As do you. (David Brown)

Obviously Kyle Hendricks won't repeat last year's performance, but how good do you think he'll be in 2017?(Buddy from Peoria, IL)

My gut says he'll be something like a 3.25 ERA guy with a whip closer to 1.10 than 1.00. I think the strikeout rate is real, as is the walk rate, and he's clearly a good groundball guy, but I also think that park and his stuff mean the home runs have to uptick just a little bit. Still a top 30 pitcher, but probably not a Cy Young candidate. (Trevor Strunk)

Hey Jarrett, hope all is well. I have a few questions for you.
Who do you think potentially gets more votes this year for the NL Cy Young, deGrom or Syndergaard?
What kind of numbers do you think Cespedes would need to put up to realistically to reach his goal of MVP?
Whats your confidence level on Gsellman making a run at Rookie of the Year this year?(Tom Hubert from Long Island)

Syndergaard's the chalk for Cy votes, but you're right to bring up deGrom here. Everyone forgets that he was right amongst the contenders until he got hurt last year, and he was really never at 100 percent.

Cespedes probably needs like 30/100 plus the narrative. The narrative would've been easier to achieve last year.

I'd be a bit worried that Gsellman doesn't throw enough innings to get to ROTY. He could see a stint in the pen, he could skip a few starters for maintenance, etc., whereas I'm pretty sure Dansby Swanson is going to see 650 PAs unless something bad happens. (Jarrett Seidler)

Jacob Degrom has been pretty easily been a top 7 SP over the last 3 years. Why does it seem like he's never mentioned during the best/top 10 SPs convo? (Career ERA+ 138)(Sammy from NY)

I think it's because we all thought he was going to be bad, haha. I think typically, people hate admitting they were wrong, and that comes out in baseball all too often in the discourse of "Well look, he's gonna regress." Think of it like pre-decline Matt Cain -- I think deGrom has proved everything he has to, and should soon be getting Cy Young mentions and list nods; I just think he had to fight against all of us kind of rolling our eyes at his early success to do it. (Trevor Strunk)

In a H2H points keeper league without contracts or other similar restrictions, would you keep Greinke or Gausman and why? Thanks.(Mike from MO)

I keep Gausman, since both dudes are pitching in terrible ballparks now and only one of them is older. Gausman strikes me as the kind of guy who is perennially meant to break out, and while that can cause fatigue, it can also result in a year like Greinke's Cy Young year. I'd hang onto Gausman as opposed to hoping Greinke gets his ace results back in AZ (Trevor Strunk)

% Chance a Met SP finishes in the top 2 of NL Cy Young voting next year (Prison Mike from Scranton)

If we're talking Top 2 in a world where Clayton Kershaw exists, then I'd go with something like 20 percent. There's a LOT of variance in Cy Young voting. (If you wanted to eliminate Noah Syndergaard from the discussion, then I'd drop the number down to like three percent.) (Bryan Grosnick)

I wrote a piece earlier this month pushing Jose Fernandez for NL Cy Young. He had only pitched better since then. That's an easy pick. So is Trout for AL MVP. So is Seager for NL RoY. I'll take Sanchez for AL RoY, Bryant for NL MVP, and Kluber for AL CY, but I could maybe be talked out of those. (Matthew Trueblood)

A recent episode of EW inspired my Crazy Idea of the Week. The discussion about how teams aren't necessarily incentivized to create juggernaut teams, but rather to win the division and roll the dice in the postseason got me thinking. Should the Cubs, who have the makings of a juggernaut on their hands, switch to a 6 man rotation to preserve the health of their arms until October? Hammel has had consistent struggles in the second half and Arrieta has said that he felt worn down in the playoffs in 2015. If the Cubs manage to continue this pace through the end of May, should they consider adding Adam Warren to their rotation and focus on maximizing their chances in the postseason?(Will from Gainesville)

Well, yes. They probably should. I haven't seen (or don't remember) a great study on how much the fatigue of a long season affects pitching in October, but it seems very intuitive that every inning you've thrown makes you a little bit worse by the 230th or 250th. So I support this idea, with two possible exceptions:

1) If the Cubs have some chance at doing something heroic (like winning 117 games; pretty much just that. Maybe a winning streak, maybe personal achievements), they should. I've been unable to convince any of my Bay Area friends that the Warriors winning 73 was a much bigger deal than them potentially winning this year's title, but I feel that way, and if the Cubs can chase 117 without doing any real damage to their playoff chances I'd say they should; 2) if the Cubs have some reason to believe that costing Jake Arrieta a Cy Young award, or Jon Lester 20 wins, or something along those lines, would lead to great unhappiness, it'd be worth listening to those guys. But I wouldn't just assume either of those things would lead to great unhappiness, even if we're all excessively paranoid about unhappy athletes. (Sam Miller)

What do you make of Syndergaard/how would you numerically grade his pitches? We watching the next perennial CY young winner?
(Fred from NY)

I'm not ready to call him a perennial Cy Young winner, but I think we can almost make the assertion that he's the best of that incredible Mets cluster of young arms, which is quite the accomplishment. His fastball is a 10, and I'd say everything else is pretty well-rounded. His sinker is the pitch that is hit most (.269 BAA) and after that no one can touch his change, slider or curve. Maybe an 7 sinker, and 8 with the rest of his repertoire? I mean, he's legit. Way better than R.A. Dickey. (Kenny Ducey)

Very good. You should probably ask the new BP Toronto (http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com), but I like him as a guy in that tier just below the Cy Young scrum this year. Would love to see him model his work after Dallas Keuchel's 2015, then start amping up the Ks. (Bryan Grosnick)

Fascinating question. Just looked up their WARP and we have Posey at 38 and Lincecum at 21. If Lincecum had the edge in WS to go along with those two Cys, I might go that way, but he doesn't. (Greg Wellemeyer)

Hi George, I'm in a keeper league and want to know if you would keep Matz over Arieta or Salazar? (John from Toronto)

I wouldn't. Matz is a bit older than you think bc of all the injuries that delayed his development. Arrieta is a no-doubt top 20 starter and I'm a sucker for Salazar. I wrote about him for our Flash Forward day (ducks chair being thrown) as a future Cy Young contender. cFIP <3's Salazar (George Bissell)

hey mike, thanks for the chat!
So I'm holding Archer and Sale and need an offensive upgrade, preferably in the outfield. Our offensive stats are R/HR/SB/RC/OBP/SLG, what would be a reasonable return for one of those potential Cy Young winners? (Dan from bloomington)

I think for Sale you should be able to get a top 5-10 guy. Archer might be a little bit lower just because he has only done it for one year, but I wouldn't take less than a top 15 hitter, and I might push for more if I could. (Mike Gianella)

Hi JP! Probably not. As you've noted in our private conversations Sneed has what the Brewers like from a delivery standpoint; straight over the top arm slot and a full windup. He has a good starter's frame and the fastball ticks up to 94 on occasion. Curve is 11-5 with a big hump out of the hand and his split change can be a nice change of pace but it's not going to miss bats as he advances levels. Backend profile for sure. (Mauricio Rubio)

Are the expectations of Gerrit Cole still that of a no crap # 1 starter? Or has that hype tapered off?(Rob from baltimore)

For me it hasn't tapered off. I had him second in my Cy Young predictions and he's a main reason I picked the Pirates to win it all. I love what he brings in all aspects, hopefully the swing and miss starts to pick up, because I like to look smart. It happens so rarely... (Sahadev Sharma)

Jake Arrieta and Carlos Carrasco were fantastic down the stretch. Do you think those two can finish what they started, what I mean is do you think one or both could be this year's Kluber?(G Money from Orlando)

I think we're overstating how rarely a Kluber happens. Arrieta is much more likely to continue the success and stay healthy in 2015, but expecting a Cy Young out of either of them is a bit much. (Bret Sayre)

Sure, this year, next year, the year after... as long as he can throw as hard as he can and muster up a few decent secondary pitches, he has a shot at the Cy Young. I have no special knowledge that would predispose me to believe that this year will be any different.

The thing is, he's a really good pitcher. Beyond having that one characteristic, there's no other special talent that allows one to win a Cy Young, besides a healthy dose of luck. (Rob Arthur)

Expanding on the "Cole for Cy Young" question above, what are your thoughts for him this year? Do we see more of what he was doing to finish 2014?(EB from Philly)

It's no news that he's an exciting young pitcher. Love the strikeouts and what he did in September last year (7.5 K/BB ratio) was amazing. I don't think he's that guy going forward, but then that's Pedro Martinez/2014 Clayton Kershaw territory so. Expecting him to win the Cy is a bit much. Expecting him to be the best starter on a decent Pirates team is probably about right. (Matthew Kory)

Where do you stand on the pitcher as MVP debate?(Ryan W. from Pittsburgh)

The rules say that pitchers should be considered, so from that standpoint, I don't think writers can overlook them. That said, and I'm probably in the minority on this one, but I would not vote for a pitcher as MVP until some sort of position player of the year award is established. I'm not a huge fan of the NFL's system, in which there's an MVP and an Offensive and Defensive Player of the Year, because it's weird to have, say, a quarterback as MVP but not OPoY, but I actually think that format would fit baseball better, since most position players have to contribute on both sides of the ball.

Awarding, say, the NL MVP to Kershaw, the NL Cy Young to Kershaw, and the NL PPoY to McCutchen would, in my mind, be the most appropriate recognition of the performance in the league this year. (Daniel Rathman)

Think Zack Wheeler turn into a future cy young candidate? His splits so far are nearly identical to what verlander's were through the same number of starts. Also to my (non-scout) eye, there is a very strong resemblance in terms of raw stuff (Dick Grande from St Louis)

Verlander went deeper into games even at that age. Cy Young candidate can mean a couple different things, either a front runner or someone receiving votes. Looking up and down the cavalcade of NL pitching, jeez there's a lot of good pitching. Don't think he ever fits in with the elite crowd, but a one-time top 10 vote-getter wouldn't be a bad thing. (Matt Sussman)

Everyone wrote their "Jake Arrieta" is awesome piece. I want to see what happens when he has a bad inning. Is he still going to believe in his stuff enough to survive giving up some runs early in a game or will he deteriorate? Game is mental for him, things are going really well right now. What happens when he's bad?

Stuff was never a question. I believe in him because Bosio does, but I want to see him under duress and how he handles it. (Mauricio Rubio)

Given what you've seen to date, and considering it's still only April, who do you think will be in the Series?(John from CT)

I looked up the staff preseason predictions to see who I had winning the World Series. I chose the Nationals. I also had the Rays and Diamondbacks making the playoffs, and Clayton Kershaw, Mat Latos, and Chris Sale finishing in the top-six of Cy Young voting. So that's a good way to start the chat.

I'll stick with the Nationals for now. In the AL, I'll guess Detroit. (R.J. Anderson)

That's a perfect sell-high, buy-low. That phrase is used too often and usually unrealistically ("sell high on Alfredo Simon!" ... yeah cool, cuz I can totally get Stanton for him... GTFOHWTS!!!) I LOVE Teheran (he is my NL Cy Young pick), but there is at least *some* regression coming in those numbers while I believe Verlander will iron himself out as the season evolves. Might feel scary after last night from the pair, but I like it. (Paul Sporer)

Aside from being Paul Goldschmidt's plaything, how good will Tim Lincecum be this year? Improve on last year? There was some suggestion that the presence of Tim Hudson (and his methods) might be of benefit (certainly Hudson has been good so far) - is that asking too much of a veteran teammate? Thanks, again, Matthew. (Drifter from Long Branch)

I think there's a better Lincecum in there than he's showed over the last couple seasons. This season he's got 17 Ks and one (!) walk in 15 innings, which is terrific. Then you look farther down the list and see he's got a 7.20 ERA because he's given up 12 runs and five homers in those 15 IP. He can clearly still get guys out, but what I keep hearing is that he hasn't ever adjusted to pitching with lesser velocity. The margin for error of a pitcher who throws 90-91 is much less than for a pitcher who can hit 96. The command has to be there and it seems it just isn't. He can't live up in the zone and out over the plate like he used to and unless that changes, it's hard to be optimistic. I do think a change of approach could benefit him, but the Cy Young winner is gone. (Matthew Kory)

Is Chris Sale primed for a CY Young caliber season or do you see his funky delivery blowing out his elbow before he gets the chance?(Wingman from TX)

His delivery is full of risk factors, but injury prediction is a dangerous game given the plethora of variables and the impossibility of knowing about elements such as joint integrity, tendon strength, genetics, conditioning, etc. Performance-wise he is already at or near CY caliber, and though his team's offense might limit the W's, I think that Sale is one of the top pitchers in the AL as long as he is on the mound.

Hey Paul, thanks for the chat.
Is the "Eraser" a post sleeper,sleeper this year ?
Will Mat Latos win the N.L Cy Young this year, as he thoroughly deserves some recognition for being very good ?(boatman44 from Liverpool )

Yes on Eraser. I'm still buying. I'd have actually picked Latos as my NL Cy this year had it not been for the nicked knee. It remains to be seen if the knee will really set him back, so I'll probably still down-ballot him. I LOVE Latos and he doesn't get the hype he deserves. (Paul Sporer)

Mike, the most vexing question in our fantasy league this year is surely how to pronounce the given name of prospect Rougned Odor. The second most vexing is which is the stressed syllable of his surname. There are all sorts of kinky possibilities, but we would like to be correct.(TeamPineTar from KC)

The interwebs tell me that it's pronounced ""ROOG-ned o-DOOR." If it makes you feel any better, I'm terrible at guessing pronunciations as well. As a kid, I used to say C.I. Young for Cy Young, much to everyone's amusement. (Mike Gianella)

Zack Wheeler for Price straight up, who says no and why?(dcapofari from NY)

That's putting a lot of faith in Wheeler. It's a very good start and a very nice return, but it depends if the Rays would rather go big on the quantity or the quality. I'd rather have a deeper package than a straight one/one trade, especially when my trade chip is a former Cy Young winning lefty. (Jason Parks)

I used to think he was a good no. 3 with an outside chance of being a Cy Young winner. Now I think he's a good no. 3 with an outside chance of being out of the league in two and a half years. There's still a lot of hope in that profile, sure. (Sam Miller)

Co-workers of mine seem to think John Lackey will have a bounceback year and be in consideration for the Cy Young Award. Given that Lackey missed the 2012 season with Tommy Johns, do you see much improvement for Lackey?(chicksdigthelongball from CT)

Whoa... the second part seems a little ambitious. I'll wade in ankle deep on the first part of that, but Cy Young consideration usually comes down to a few guys, and I can't put him above Dickey and Kuroda in the category of old AL East pitchers let alone when you start tossing around the guys in other divisions and in their primes. I'd pick Lester before I'd pick Lackey, but I wouldn't bet on either for a standout year. (Zachary Levine)

Thoughts on Morosi's prediction for PHI to finish ahead of ATL?(BOO-URN from parts unknown)

It seems silly, though last year at this time if you told me the Phillies were going to be a .500 team I would have thought you were huffing chemicals. Realistically, the Phillies would need a lot to go right for this to happen. If Roy Halladay returns to Cy Young form, then maybe the Phillies are an 87 win team. At that point, some combination of a breakout by Dom Brown or Darin Ruf, a full, healthy, and productive season by Ryan Howard or Chase Utley and something resembling a 2-3 win season from Delmon Young or Michael Young could make it happen. But it seems to be asking a lot for all of things to happen in 2013. (Mike Gianella)

Is Lincecum a good bounce back candidate?(stewbies from Rochester, NY)

It depends on what you want him to bounce back to. I can see him putting up a 4.00 ERA or something in that neighborhood but it's hard to expect him to be the Timmah who won back-to-back Cy Young awards. It wasn't talked about to the same degree, but Lincecum's velo drop in 2012 reminded me of Ubaldo Jimenez's in 2011. This isn't a bet I'm going to be making this year. (Mike Gianella)

Yes. He will win it in 2018 but he'll really have deserved it more in 2015.

Actually, you know, for the 1990s and 2000s so many CYs were won by Pedro, Clemens, Maddux and Johnson that not that many pitchers ever got to win it. There really isn't that guy right now, unless it's Strasburg coming along or maybe in retrospect we'll say Verlander. But the Cy Young might end up being something that everybody gets to win over the next 15 years. (Sam Miller)

Early AL/NL ROY, Cy Young, MVP and any darkhorses you think are really going to break out this year?(Greg36 from Tacoma)

Is it darkhorse enough to say Max Scherzer could make a run at the AL Cy this year? He K/9'd 11.1 last season as a starter! That's crazy good. For the AL MVP I'll throw my inconsiderable weight behind Mike Trout. That's a pretty thick limb to step out on right there, but hey, he's the best player in the AL so it's one I don't mind standing on for a while. I'm thinking Bryce Harper is going to explode (in a good baseball-y way) this season. He's so talented I wonder if when he cuts himself shaving that talent drips down the drain. If so he probably doesn't care. More where that came from. That doesn't entirely answer your question but I must get more coffee so that's how that goes. (Matthew Kory)

Thanks for the chat Ben! Could my boy Madison Bumgarner compete for the Cy Young Award somewhere down the line?(Chris from San Francisco)

Maybe, but I'm a bit worried about the velocity loss at the end of the season. If it was just a mechanical flaw, sure, but if there was a hidden injury, uh-oh. Even if he's just a guy who gets tired at the end of the season, that might prevent him from meriting serious Cy Young consideration. So, yes, certainly not out of the question, but enough uncertainty about his stuff that I wouldn't project him to win one. (Ben Lindbergh)

Chances Andy Pettitte makes it to the Hall with voters making steroid users wait a few years on the ballot?(Brian from College Station, TX)

Another one from the Twitter files. I think Pettitte has a significantly uphill battle ahead of him. Even with a strong postseason resume, he doesn't have a Cy Young award or much in the way of All-Star appearances (3), and he's just 92nd in JAWS among starting pitchers, with a peak that's 15.6 points off the standard and a career that's 13.9 short. He comes nowhere close to measuring up to the wave of non-300 win guys reaching the ballot in 2013-2015 - Schilling,Mike Mussina, John Smoltz and Pedro Martinez. He's been one of my favorite players, but I wouldn't vote for him. (Jay Jaffe on the Hall of Fame)

Do you expect Dickey to come close to last season's levels in 2013?(Alex from Anaheim)

No, I don't expect a 38-year old knuckleballer with a short track record of success to repeat a Cy Young season, but that's the easy answer. I think that Dickey can be successful, but pitchers are different creatures every season, and the vagaries of the knuckleball make Dickey a volatile commodity.

Do you believe KC would be crazy to trade Myers in a deal for Dickey since Dickey wont turn them into contenders by himself?(Daniel from NY)

Daniel, I would think twice ... maybe three times before including Wil Myers in any deal, and especially one for a 38-year-old pitcher (Dickey's Cy Young performance in 2012 notwithstanding). Myers has a chance to be a perennial All-Star, and the potential gap between him and the alternatives in right field could negate any gains in the rotation. (Daniel Rathman)

Detroit lefty Drew Smyly had a pretty decent rookie season with a 1.268 WHIP and 94 Ks in 99 IPs. Does this 2010 2nd round draft pick project as a #3 or better starter?(Paul from DC)

I see Smyly as a 4, but he could be a solid one at that, which is a little more than I saw from him in 2011. The one shot he has, as do most young arms, to change their profile, is to command everything better. Cliff Lee is a great example. Was never a top prospect, never expected to be a 2 let alone a one who wins a Cy Young and challenges for five others.

As for Chen, I think he is what he is, for the most part, but we could see some small, incremental progressions in some areas, particular with runners on base. There is generally a transition period with Asian pitchers, especially since the ball is different. (Jason A. Churchill)

I'm honestly not sure it is. I mean, people are certainly *using* "old stats" to make their case for Cabrera and "new stats" to make the case for Trout, but I think it's mostly people looking to justify their choice post facto.

i.e., I like Cabrera more than I like Trout, and look, he may win the Triple Crown, hence I'll cite that as my evidence. You even see this with Tigers fans who'll use "old" counting stats to justify the case for Cabrera as MVP and then turn around and use WAR to justify Verlander as their Cy Young choice. It's post facto reasoning in nearly every case.

And since I don't care who wins the MVP, I find it very interesting. Also, it should be Mike Trout. (Ian Miller)

Does Yadier Molina have a legit shot at NL MVP over Posey/Braun? Who's the NL Cy Young?(Brian_K from Missouri)

I kinda don't think so, which is a shame, because Yadi has had a ridiculous year. I'm sure he's getting a ton of press in STL, but you don't hear much about him in the national MSM. I think it's Posey's to lose right now. He's got everything going for him: the comeback from injury, a division win, and (obviously) he's been playing like a house a'fire since the ASB.

NL Cy Young? Hell, I don't know. I thought Kershaw would run away with it, but this injury has been terrible for his chances. Totally up in the air now, I reckon. (Ian Miller)

Kris Medlen's second half has been absolutely ridiculous. In 18 games (11 starts), he's 8-0 with two holds, 1.01 ERA, and opposing hitters have a .492 OPS (.192 BA) against him.
Could he get some NL Cy Young votes? Should he? And how in the hell has he turned into (arguably) the most dominant starting pitcher in baseball over the past ~2.5 months?(rileybreck from Orange County)

I don't think it's even arguable -- he HAS been the most dominant pitcher in the game. Those numbers are absolutely preposterous. He might garner a few votes, sure. With Kershaw hurt and ineffective, there might be some votes up for grabs. I wouldn't bet my house on it, though. (Ian Miller)

Have you jumped ship completely on arenado? Thoughts on singletons platoon issues? Sano, is he going to be taveras or is he going to be delmon young? And I just want your quick thought on Dickey's year next year?(Garett from Ohio)

I don't think Sano is anything like Taveras or Young, so can I say neither?

Re Dickey... I don't know what to expect from him next year. He's such an anomaly and my gut says to expect massive regression next year due to his age and the flukiness of knuckleballers, but he's been a great story this year and he got my first-place NL Cy Young vote in our postseason awards voting earlier this week. (Bradley Ankrom)

Fernando Rodney, newest Rays Relief Rehab success-story, has shot arrows all around MLB. Question is, does his "come out of nowhere" season garner him any 1st place CY votes and should Rays fans expect the same out of him next year or will he show some major regression?(jlarsen from chicagoland)

There is very little I'm less interested in than trying to read the minds of Cy Young voters, but I would really hope that a reliever doesn't end up winning the Cy. As for regression, the short answer is that if you have to ask about a guy, he's probably going to regress, at least in the way that most people use the word. But to be pedantic about it, players really don't regress the way we commonly talk about -- regression to the mean is a description of POPULATIONS of players. Now population tendencies are a good input to our predictions, but regression isn't destiny. (Colin Wyers)

Thanks for the response Sam! This chat is going really smooth. Care for another prediction maybe? Strasburg's line this season: IP, H, BB, HR, ER... well, you get the idea. (Bonus points for predicting QS, no-hitters and the like)(Guillermo from Montevideo, Uruguay)

Rangers top prospect Martin Perez recently asked Yu Darvish how he fared in his first intra-squad scrimmage. Darvish told him he pitched "OK" and then instructed his translator to ask Perez how old he was.
Informed that Perez was 20, Darvish responded, "Tell him I already had a Cy Young by then."
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So, that Darvish guy has confidence, what about Martin Perez? What should we expect out of the Venezuelean this year and beyond? (Dan from Colorado)

For me, the biggest issue for Perez is just finding more consistency. When he's on, he's REALLY on, but as Kevin Goldstein mentioned in his writeup of the Rangers system, his velocity goes in and out, and that gets him frustrated. I think he'd benefit from another full year in the minors, both from a consistency standpoint and to learn how to keep his emotions from getting the best of him on days when he doesn't have his best stuff. If he can do that, I could see him either as an elite reliever or No. 2 starter down the road. (Daniel Rathman)

Donnie Baseball's team has had a rough year, but I don't think you can heap all of that on him. Yes, he might just have both the MVP and Cy Young award winner in his midst, but the rest of the cast for a pennant run just wasn't there and wasn't coming what with all the bankruptcy stuff going on. I quibble with this batting orders sometimes, but you know that's small beer. Also small bear. (Steven Goldman)

I realize I may be painting myself into the grouch corner here, but is there a case for abolishing not only the All-Star game but all individual awards of any type? I feel like the people (of whom there are many) who spill so much vitriol over ASG slights, Cy Young and MVP voting and the like are totally focusing on symbols over substance - and to be honest I wonder if these people really like baseball at all.(Rob from Alaska)

I don't know if I'm up for abolishing all of that, but I have to admit that I'm as jaundiced as you are, particularly when it comes to All-Star Game stories. Every year it's "Oh, the injustice!" on behal of some player(s) and we get very exercised for about five days and then forget about it. I feel a little different about the MVP and Cy awards since they retroactively take on a lot of importance when we're looking at history and trying to judge a player at a distance. It seems more important to get those right. (Steven Goldman)

That said, I can make better *arguments* for guys like Orel Hershiser, David Cone and Dwight Gooden, all of whom fell just short of 200 wins but had Cy Youngs and rings to their credit. I can make a better argument for Kevin Brown, but it's hindered by his being named in the Mitchell Report, not to mention his 2004 postseason shame. (Jay Jaffe)

If Roy Halladay were to retire after this season, is he a first ballot Hall Of Famer?(R.A. Wagman from Toronto)

No. The voters have elected just one sub-300 win pitcher since 1991, and that's Blyleven. They're not going to rush to elect a sub-200 win pitcher, even one with some nice credentials such as a Cy Young in each league. Guys like I mentioned, Hersiser/Gooden/Cone had a Cy and a ring and virtually disappeared from the ballots instantaneously, Halladay doesn't have a ring. No way would he stick around longer than a ballot or two. (Jay Jaffe)

Is there any single reason why Kyle Gibson is striking out a batter an inning in AAA when he had trouble missing bats at that rate last year? Is it odd that he's putting up better stats than Webb was at this point in his respective career?(richardkr34 from Saint Paul, MN)

He's showing even better command and control, which is helping. That said, he's not the next Brandon Webb, and he's not going to win Cy Young awards. I like him, but as a No. 3 starter. (Kevin Goldstein)

Are you at least a little bit surprised Roy Halladay has turned out to be this good? I don't remember him being that highly regarded when he pitched in High School.(Bashy from Philly)

Guy was the fourth high school arm taken in the draft that year. That said, nobody put a ceiling of two Cy Young awards and four more top five finishes on him, but how many have gotten that? (Kevin Goldstein)

Do you think the move to the NL and to a more competitive environment (he was bored in KC) will result in 2009-ish numbers from Zack Greinke? Should we expect 200+ Ks and an ERA below 3.00? (Pete from Bronx)

Here's what I don't buy about this whole line of thought that he didn't do well last year because the team was bad... last I recall the Royals were pretty bad in 2009 and he won the Cy Young Award that year. He wasn't bored then? Or maybe he was over his head in 2009, and last year it evened out, and the real Greinke is somewhere in between? Accept that, adjust for the switch to the NL, and add some offensive support, and I could see an ERA around 3.25-3.35 with 200 or so K's. He'll be part of an exceptional top three with Gallardo and Marcum, but I'm not putting him in the Cy Young race just yet. (Cory Schwartz)

Re: Greinke's 2009.
The Royals started out really hot, were in first for a little bit. this kept Zack's interest up, and by the time the Royals decided to go all Royals, he was in serious Cy Young contention so he remained focus. IT's a theory...(Tony from Albuquerque)

That is one theory, and of course there's no way of measuring the mental aspect of performance. OTOH, if you look at his 2009 season in the context of his entire career it screams outlier, and 2010 looks a lot more like his other seasons, so I'll stick by my previous guesstimation as to his performance this year. (Cory Schwartz)

If Brown pitches well in Game 7 of the 2004 ALCS, the Yankees make the WS that year, and everyone's memory of him isn't the Damon GS, is he getting quite a few more votes? That's not even an alternate universe, that's an alternate block.(Charlie from Bethesda, MD)

There's still the steroids thing, alas, not that anyone making judgments on that basis really knows what the hell they're talking about. You change two of his 18-win seasons into 20s and give him a Cy Young award, and he gets in. I sometimes think the same way about Willie Randolph, a favorite of mine. Willie was an excellent fielder and a very good, albeit subtle hitter, and he tended to miss 20-30 games a year to injury. He scored 90-plus runs four times. Change those to 100s and the voters might have had a different perception of him. (Steven Goldman)

Hi Jay! greetings from your southern-most follower (unless someone in the southern island of NZ is also out there?) Quick question, who would be the 5 charter members of the Baseball HoF if it was founded today?(Guillermo from Montevideo, Uruguay)

Hey Guillermo! I think if you were to start today, Babe Ruth, Willie Mays, Hank Aaron and Cy Young would be four of those five. I'm not sure who the fifth would be, though - probably another pitcher. Maybe Tom Seaver given that he had the highest vote percentage of all time. (Jay Jaffe)

I must say, the MLB Network is improving fast, it was refreshing to see the fellow co-hosts deride Harold Reynolds for choosing CC as Cy Young for, "knowing how to win", suggesting that King Felix couldve done more to get more W's. I still pine for a Baseball Prospectus program of some wort, whether it be weekly segments or larger, itd be a great, comprehensive way to approach baseball from all levels of knowledge(Keith7971 from Naugatuck)

Of course I'd love to hear more stathead-slanted analysis over there, but I think they do a great job anyway. One example I have of the sort of thing I take as "progress" is when Reynolds was interviewing Andre Dawson after his induction. One of the first things Reynolds said, IIRC, was something like "of course, some people look at your low on-base percentage and say that's a big negative, but your job was to drive in runs, not get on base, right?" Which, of course, begs the question of how so many outfielders in The Hall managed to both get on base AND drive in runs, but that's not the point. The point is, Reynolds felt it necessary to at least address the issue. That's progress, right?

BTW, that's not to pick on Reynolds, who I enjoy despite some of the things he says, and Dawson, who I think belongs despite the low OBP. (Ken Funck)

Hey John, I know that postseason play should not be considered for end-of-season awards, but, given we are all human, how much of an impact will Halladay's performance yesterday have on the CY voting?(Chase from San Diego)

The ballots were required to be cast before the first pitch of the first post-season game so the no-hitter is moot. That being said, I had a vote for the NL Cy Young and Halladay was first on my ballot. (John Perrotto)

The 2010 AL Cy Young award should go to ________, but will go to ________. Those blanks aren't going to fill themselves, can you help?(Andrew from Toronto)

Felix, Sabathia. I think if Felix can go 3-0 or 4-0 and finish at 14-11 or 15-11, then he will have enough wins for the voters to not be able to look past all of his other numbers, even if Sabathia finished with 23 wins. However, I don't think that happens. I have a sneaking suspicion that Sabathia pitches lights out the rest of the year while Hernandez has a bad start... like a 5 IP-6 ER bad start... that seals Sabathia's victory in the minds of many. Realistically, though, both have been great this season. (Eric Seidman)

All of the above. But as Kevin Goldstein asked on Twitter a few days ago, why do we still care? The BBWAA's ruling on the identity of baseball's best pitcher doesn't make it (or him) so. (Ben Lindbergh)

As a Cub fan, I want to buy in Z's renaissance. As a saber guy , I'm guessing you have some issues with his supposed comeback.(Matt from Chicago)

Yeah, you could say that. Also as a guy who thinks velocity matters, which is neither a sabermetric nor a non-sabermetric school of thought. The strikeouts have certainly been there in September, but the walks are a little out of control. Still a useful starter, of course, but I don't like his chances of collecting on that Cy Young clause in his contract. (Ben Lindbergh)

In much the same way that King Felix deserves the AL Cy Young award, does Terry Francona deserve the AL Manager of the Year award?(Cambridge from Cambridge)

In that he's been let down by his supporting cast, but still turned in a good season? I guess so, if you absolve him of any blame for the injuries. But if we're using that framework, doesn't Ron Gardenhire come out smelling even rosier? Honestly, since we can't really isolate a manager's performance, I don't know who deserved the MotY award. It's a stab in the dark. (Ben Lindbergh)

What do you make of the Cy Young argument in the American League?(Bobby G from Helena)

I think it should be Felix Hernandez or Jon Lester, and it comes down to their last few starts. Lester seemed like he had fallen out of the race, but he has been nigh untouchable for about five starts now and propelled himself right back into it. I wrote something about it about a week ago, but then he went and shut the Jays down over the weekend as well. Here's a link!(Marc Normandin)

So is this who John Lackey is now? A slightly above average innings eater? I can't imagine that's what Theo Epstein thought he was getting for his $82 million. (mattymatty2000 from Portland, OR)

It's been a rough season for Lackey, but let's not forget that Josh Beckett put up a 5.01 ERA in his first season in Boston, only to rebound with a Cy Young caliber season the following year. Of course, Beckett didn't have nearly the mileage or the history of recent arm troubles that Lackey's had.

The thing I find particularly disconcerting is Lackey's plummeting strikeout rate. He's going to have to miss more bats to be successful in the AL East, and if he doesn't, that contract is going to turn into a real albatross. (Jay Jaffe)

They certainly are, even when we adjust for his home park. His ranks amongst those with 130 IP this year: 3rd in FRA behind Hudson and Wainwright, 5th in ERA, 4th in WHIP, 8th in SIERA, 5th in SO/PA, yadda yadda. I could go on but you probably get the point. The dude is good. As for NL Cy Young, we still have a month and a half to go so it isn't impossible but I find it unlikely he wins. I think it's going to come down to Wainwright and Halladay with the former taking home the trophy. I just have this hunch that Wainwright gets to 23-24 wins and finishes with a sub-2.00 ERA. Halladay will be equally deserving, but Wainwright wins it. The order of the voting will be: Wainwright, Halladay, Johnson, Ubaldo, Latos. (Eric Seidman)

Hudson gets no love from the stats crowd, but he's a legit CY candidate, and I can't help but think that sometimes we lose ourselvses in SIERA/FIP/etc. The Fangraphs people even measure pitcher performance by FIP, which seems to indicate that what actually happened on the field didn't matter, just what the peripherals were. So could you throw Huddy some love, even if he isn't really this good?(tdees40 from Jersey)

I wholeheartedly agree that certain analysts go a bit too far with ERA-estimators. But I also think there is a lot of confusion over what these estimators do, and that is what fuels everything. That is a topic for another day, but with regards to Hudson, he is having a very good season, in a year when about 8-10 other pitchers are also having very good seasons. I bet he gets a lot of Cy Young votes, but ask yourself this: in a tough game, would you rather have Hudson on the mound than Wainwright, Halladay, Johnson, Ubaldo, or Latos, especially given what we've seen this year? For me, I might take Hudson over Ubaldo, but certainly not over the other four. He is a BIG reason why the Braves are where they are, but just because he isn't going to win the award doesn't mean he isn't having a good season. He induces a lot of ground balls so his results are tied to extracurricular activities, so to speak, but for all we know, he might be inducing very weak contact, making the balls easier to field. Suffice to say, there are question marks with Hudson, while there aren't with Wain/Doc/JJ/Latos. (Eric Seidman)

If Cliff Lee starts walking everyone, and CC Sabathia stops winning, sure, Liriano has had a really, really great season. I'm not much for arguing who SHOULD win stuff anymore, so I've mostly refrained from all the Liriano-for-Cy discussions, but I will say I think Lee is more deserving right now. But, if Lee finishes the year 12-8, he isn't going to win the award. Then again, between Liriano and Sabathia I think we could see a repeat of Johan v. Colon, US 2006. (Eric Seidman)

For years, people have discredited hitters who hit at Coors field when it comes for MVP races. So, why doesn't Ubaldo Jimenez get extra credit for the Cy Young race for pitching half his games at Coors?(Hansford from Fort Worth)

I don't think Ubaldo Jimenez needs any extra help in the Cy Young race this year. His Davenport Translated ERA this season is 2.61, which is mighty good. Of course, his SIERA is a much more pedestrian 3.55, but that doesn't apply park factors to the peripherals. (Tommy Bennett)

Would you rather have a Ron Guidry type career, short with multiple Cy Young caliber years, or Jamie Moyer, okay to good for a long, long time? (redsoxin2004 from Columbia, CT)

Me, I'd rather have the Moyer path, because I think that if I had the talent to play in the majors I would hang on as long as I can and wring every last drop out of my ability. That, plus I've always enjoyed the elder statesman role in certain situations. (Jay Jaffe)

No Ubaldo in the top 5? Not that I'm arguing with the top 5 of Halladay, Timmy, Lee, JJ and Lester. Picking five is difficult; if not impossible.(johnsond16 from Wherever you find yourself; there you are)

I'm as big an Ubaldo booster as you'll find, been touting him for years as underrated and I'm delighted to see him doing what he's doing. If we're talking 2010 stats, sure he's a top fiver, and might even be the Cy Young winner if he can avoid falling apart in the second half. But if you're taking a larger sample into account, you might want to put guys like Adam Wainwright and Chris Carpenter ahead of him. Maybe Zack Greinke and Felix Hernandez as well.

Is it fair to say AJ Burnett's career has been a slight disappointment? I assume most people thought he would have at least 1 Cy Young award by now and/or been the staff ace of a team.(Zooey from LA)

For the stuff he has, yes, I think you can say he's been a disappointment. Still had a very good career, but he's rarely consistent with his greatness.

Maybe he'll win a few big World Series games before this thing is over though, and then we can see about putting him in the Hall of Fame next to Jack Morris because he pitched to the score. (Marc Normandin)

Has it always been common for spring training games to end in a tie? Is the frustration of old school pitchers argueing about the deflated value of wins in Cy Young voting quietly relevant? Where does Lou Gehrig rank as an all time Yankee? (Bonds Fan from Bay Area)

(1) Yes. No reason to stress your pitchers in an exhibition.
(2) No. Wins never should have been part of the discussion. Sorry that the march of progress has devalued something they were brought up to believe in, but that's the way it goes (see also race relations or our current debate on homosexual marriage).
(3) Gehrig is way up there. Not the very top, because he wasn't a great defender playing one of the easier positions, but he was a hell of a hitter, and the way he was built he would have been a strapping physical specimen in any era. (Steven Goldman)

Let's pretend each division gave out a Cy Young. Who gets it in the NL East if Roy Halladay is excluded... If you feel like it, who wins every division? (CC, Grienke, Felix, Halladay, Lincecum excluded... Too tight in NL Central)(Pat from NJ)

Now that Roy Halladay will be playing for a contender and in a big market, will he be far more high profile and more likely to win a Cy Young?(garethbluejays1 from Newcastle, UK)

He seemed pretty high profile to me, but maybe that's because as an AL East guy I was already seeing him fairly often. He should get more attention playing his home games here in the land of the brave and the free, and with better offensive support should run up a fairly good win total. He might have some park effect-type issues with the move, that's my only worry. (Steven Goldman)

Thanks for the chat....what kind of upside progress is possible and who has the highest peak among Dallas Braden, Brett Anderson, and Jeff Niemann? All young guys, Braden's yet to put together a full major league season...do any of them have #1/#2 potential?
(RZFanClub from DC)

Anderson's well ahead of the other two, and will pull down his share of Cy Young votes in his career. Neimann is a midrotation guy, and Braden is a back-end starter/swingman. (Joe Sheehan)

Let's not pull any punches here: the whole kerfuffle about the NL Cy Young voting has much more to do with who voted than whom he voted for, correct?(Will from Fredericton)

I think the "who" was much more of a coincidence and that the kerfuffle had more to do with the media constantly suggesting that only Lincecum/Carpenter/Wainwright is worthy of the award and anyone who disagrees doesn't understand baseball. This is of course ludicrous, but that the "rebels" were Keith Law and Will Carroll was more of adding fuel to their fire than igniting it. (Eric Seidman)

Joe, Who wins today's NL Cy Young and is it the same person who'd receive your vote?(Kyle2099 from San Fran)

I think Wainwright wins it in a strongly split vote. I went with Lincecum, but I can't emphasize this enough: there is no wrong answer among the top three candidates. They're in a virtual tie in VORP and SNWLAR. (Joe Sheehan)

Happy with Coughlan and Bailey over Happ/Hanson and Porcello/Andrus?(Sam from Philadelphia)

Don't care. Seriously, I could go on about this forEVER. Awards mean nothing to me, because they mean nothing in my evaluation of a player. If Zack Greinke for some reason ended up NOT winning the Cy Young today, I wouldn't be upset in the least, because it wouldn't change AT ALL what kind of talent he is. Does that make sense? I just means utterly nothing to me. I don't think I can even tell you who last year's MVP or CY Young winners were. (Kevin Goldstein)

I know you've said always bet on tools... so are you holding out any hope at all with Anthony Hewitt?(Juice from Philly)

Sure, some hope. He did make SOME progress this year, just not enough to get too worked up about. As an aside, is anyone other than me disappointed that Greinke won the Cy Young? I am -- not because he didn't clearly deserve it, but because I was looking forward to the days of shock and outrage. (Kevin Goldstein)

I have money to spend, but give me 3 reasons why I should buy season tickets for the Indians next season?(Cleveland Sports Fan from Cleveland)

1) The return of Grady Sizemore2) The likelihood that the team couldn't possibly get off to a worse start than in three of the last four years.
3) The fact that they're unlikely to trade a Cy Young winner for a third straight year.

In all honesty, I think it's going to be a lean year, but I like what they did in hiring Manny Acta, and there are several young players, starting with Matt LaPorta, whose development is worth watching. (Jay Jaffe)

Zack Greinke should win the AL Cy Young, right? And Felix Hernandez should be his only real competition, right? Please tell me that Verlander and Sabathia won't snipe this award.(Scotty from KC)

Zack should win; he's had one of the great seasons of the decade this year, and with the Little Sisters of the Poor playing behind him to bood. I think he's going to, because the public opinion on him has come around over the last few weeks in a similar manner to that regarding Mauer.

And the Phillies score again because Carlos Gonzalez runs into the wall and fails to make the catch on a Ryan Howard fly ball, 3-0. I know it's windy there, but whatever happened to quality outfield play? (Jay Jaffe)

With this scenario: Rangers win their final 11 games: Angels go 3-7 (meaning that they go 3-3 in games which they don't have in common)
In those final 11 games, Scott Feldman pitches shutouts (or, more likely, typical Scott Feldman 6+ innings, <2 runs) in his 3 remaining starts, winning all 3 of them to get to a record of 20-5. How much Cy Young consideration will he get?(Ira from North Texas)

Matt, your choices for the major awards in each league (MVP, CY, ROY, MOY).
If you answer anyone other than Joe Mauer, I will cry.(D. Delaney from Lehigh Valley)

Joe Mauer is an easy yes for AL MVP. NL MVP-- Pujols, AL Cy Young-- Greinke, NL Cy Young-- Lincecum. I mentioned earlier (probably after you submitted this question though) that the AL ROY was a toss up, but I'd probably go with Andrus or Niemann. The NL ROY should probably be Happ or Hanson. I think Hanson is clearly the better pitcher, but Happ's run prevention is probably a little better just on account of innings pitched. It's tough because the question is that if we know that Happ's peripherals indicate he's nowhere near as good as his ERA, does that mean we don't give him credit for it? I'd say no, because I don't think you take points off a hitter who is batting .350 on bloopers either. That said, I'd bet Hanson outperforms Happ enough in the next few weeks to make it moot. (Matt Swartz)

How many wins do you think Zack Grienke needs to win the Cy Young vote (not that it should matter much, but it does)? 16? 18? He's at 13 with 6 starts remaining.(blahblah from kc)

(Insert generic comment about wins). In all honesty, I think it's more important Greinke continues to pitch well. If he has 6 more starts of 6+ IP, 2 or fewer runs, and only wins one of them, it won't matter. Greinke is the best pitcher in the AL this season. Then again, does Cliff Lee, who seemed far ahead of everyone else last year, win the award if he wins 17 and not 22 with the same ERA? Maybe not. (Eric Seidman)

can we get your MVP and CY Young predictions AND who is most deserving(ct tiger from ct)

Mauer, Pujols, Greinke, Lincecum.... AND... Mauer, Pujols, Greinke, Lincecum. However, as my brother and I were discussing yesterday, I can see Wainwright winning the award if he wins 20-21 games this year and Lincecum fails to get any more run support. (Eric Seidman)

better pitcher now and better pitcher in 3 years...joba or porcello(ct tiger from ct)

Joba, Joba. Porcello has a nice ERA but he walks too many, strikes out too few, and as a groundballer needs to have solid defense. Joba is more overpowering with great stuff. Porcello will have a decent major league career whereas Joba will be an eventual Cy Young contender. (Eric Seidman)

Who is your pick for NL Cy Young? It seems both the Giants (Lincecum/Cain) and Cardinals (Carpenter/Wainwright) have 2 pitchers making strong cases, and then there's Lee & Haren out there too...(Andrew from Chicago)

Lincecum recently passed Haren in my eyes, but it's really too close to call. Any of about four guys--probably not Carp because of the innings--could win it. (Joe Sheehan)

Somehow I don't get the feeling the Indians have either rebuilt or reloaded with the DeRosa, Garko, and Lee trades. Now I fear they're going to part with V-Mart for another backup catcher, AAA retread relief pitcher and a box of balls. Please tell me I'm wrong, John!(woof755 from Raleigh)

Frankly, I can't imagine they would get a better package for Martinez than Lee. Martinez is a good player, to be sure. However, Lee is coming off a Cy Young season and more teams had a need for a frontline starter than catcher/first baseman. So, sorry to ruin your day but ... (John Perrotto)

Marc, you're always very methodical, realistic, and fact based in your assesment of future player performance. How about making a bold, gut-based prediction - right here, right now?(ericmilburn from San Francisco)

Hey, I appreciate that a lot. So I hope that means no one holds this against me. Jon Lester will win the AL Cy Young this year. (Marc Normandin)

Is there a sense that Ollie Perez will actually do some tuneup time in AAA? Does anyone have a theory about why he has gone so far off the rails? Mets folk are used to his inconsistency but this season so far he has just been consistently terrible.(gmulligan1 from Queens, NY)

I think he'll end up in Buffalo soon. He is one of the most perplexing pitchers in the majors. His stuff is dominant and there is no reason he shouldn't be a Cy Young candidate. It's all between the ears with Ollie, as the Padres and Pirates will tell you. I was shocked, absolutely shocked the Mets gave him three years and 36 million. That was just plain crazy. (John Perrotto)

An annual tradition of mine is the drafting of Diasuke followed by a beligerent taunting of the rest of the leauge that I have just drafted this year's Cy Young winner. Will I ever be right rather than drunk?(Andy from Providence)

Hello, Providence, my favorite New England city... It all depends where you're drafting Daisuke. I certainly don't see a Cy Young winner, I see a guy who had a lot of help from his offense (5.5 runs per game) and his defense (.260 BABIP) to do as well as he did in 2008, and that's before getting into the discussion of his astronomical walk rate and its effect on his stamina. (Jay Jaffe)

Hey Bryan, long time no chat. I've been reading your stuff for years, and I remember Jon Lester was always one of your favorites, going back to when he was a little-known prospect and you correctly predicted a breakout 2005 double A season for him. You said back then that lefties with his kind of stuff are very rare. Now that he's more polished, I'm curious to hear how you think his stuff rates on the scouting scale. Were you surprised by his stellar 2008 season, and what do you see in his future? Do you think he could be great, as opposed to just very good? Would you take Lester or Sabathia for the next five years? THANKS, and great to see you around again!(Christina from Brookline)

Thanks Christina, good to be here. That was a good year for my breakout prospect list, and I've been admiring Lester ever since. As far as southpaws go, few have better stuff than Lester, who really broke through after adding that final pitch a year ago. I have to admit I didn't see such success coming as soon as 2008, when he really wasn't far down the Cy Young ballot. I think you have to take Sabathia for the next five years, but I do think Lester can develop into a real ace. (Bryan Smith)

Is Johan Santana still a Cy Young caliber pitcher? Who do you think it better?(Aunt Jemima from Atlanta)

He seemed to stop giving up all of those extra home runs that had me worried prior to his coming to NY, so I think until that comes up again, he's still a Cy Young caliber starter, yes. Watch out for those homer rates though, because those will be his downfall. (Marc Normandin)

Is Roy Oswalt on a HOF career path? A 139 era+ certainly speaks to his dominance up to this point.(Fred from Houston)

While there's so much that can go wrong with any given pitcher, Oswalt definitely appears to be on the path to Cooperstown. He'll have to stay healthy, of course, and it wouldn't hurt his cause if he were to bring home a Cy Young instead of merely finishing in the top five in voting year after year. (Jay Jaffe)

Although Longoria got ROY and Madden MOY, the Rays will have nobody close to the top tier of MVP or Cy Young candidates. Any idea of how rare it is for a pennant winner to fare so badly in these awards? (keef66 from spartanburg, sc)

Check out the Yankees all throughout the Joe Torre run. It's pretty common. (Steven Goldman)

Your choice for AL/NL MVP and AL/NL Cy Young award winners?(Tony28 from San Fran)

On the site somewhere...Lee and Pujols, Lee and Santana. Any of three or four guys have cases in the AL, and if you went with Lincecum ahead of Santana, I wouldn't argue. The actual results in all cases will be fascinating. Weird year. (Joe Sheehan)

I know Glavine is a shoo-in because of his 300 wins, but isn't he really just a product of those dominant Braves teams of the 1990s? I mean, he doesn't even come close to 3000 Ks.(Jeff from Denver)

Strikeouts are very nice but they're not everything. Glavine's career ERA was more than 20 percent better than the league average over the course of his first 21 seasons, which is a pretty big indicator of greatness. He didn't dominate but his skill in pitching with men on base was pretty unique, perhaps unparalleled except by Maddux. He's 32nd in Pitching Runs Above Average, and he had six top three Cy Young finishes, with two Cys. Great, great pitcher. (Jay Jaffe)

If you granted every pitcher a year of health in '09 (they still lose late inning effectiveness to fatigue but don't break down), would Joba be the single pitcher most likely to win the AL Cy Young?(Tony from Brooklyn, NY)

I swore I answered this, but I apparently forgot to hit submit. I'm interested in seeing what Joba Chamberlain can do with a full season as a starter, but I think with no injury repercussions, the Cy goes to Roy Halladay. He's already efficient enough to throw a ton of complete games, and if he isn't missing any time and there aren't worries about him breaking down, he's going to throw 250 innings easy like this year. (Marc Normandin)

Do you think that the ridiculous MVP and Cy Young discussion the MSM gives KRod has caused a massive sabermetric backlash to the point that he is a little underrated by stat guys who it sometimes seems act like KRod is not a good pitcher?(Jon from DC)

Who does this? I hear this a lot, but who out there is writing that Rodriguez is less than an above-average reliever having maybe the third-worse season of his career *outside of* being put into a lot of save situations. Who are these people acting like "KRod is not a good pitcher"? That's drawing inferences that aren't justified. (Joe Sheehan)

Joe, why aren't Dempster and Johan mentioned more in NL Cy Young discussions? Lincecum should be the clear favorite, but Demp and Johan should be in the discussion with Webb right?(umfan83 from Chicago)

Cf. other references to the term "in the discussion." It's code for "talk about my favorite player, or the player on my favorite team." Neither Dempster nor Santana has claim to the title of best pitcher in the league. Discussing them is a waste of time. (Joe Sheehan)

How can people say that Brandon Webb should win the NL Cy Young? Simple question, it's truly baffeling.(TheBunk from Toronto)

Probably because he's got 19 wins and has been on the verge of 20 for a couple weeks, though Tim Lincecum (16-3 with an ERA more than a run better and an SNLVAR about 50% better) has probably closed the gap enough to have a pretty good shot. The kid would get my vote, for sure. (Jay Jaffe)

6 weeks later, was the Cubs pickup of Harden as good if not better than CC Sabathia? Will only the playoff results determine this?(Gray from Chicago)

It is remarkable how well each pitcher has done. In terms of SNLVAR, Sabathia's at 3.7 in 10 starts for the Brewers, and Harden at 2.4 in eight, so Sabathia has the edge. Here's a question: if Sabathia keeps going at his current pace, and the Brewers win the wild card, or even the division, does he get Cy Young/MVP consideration? It's amazing the parallel that can be drawn to Rick Sutcliffe, who was traded from the Indians to the Cubs midway through 1984 and won the Cy after going 16-1 with his new team. It's not going to happen this year, in all likelihood, but it is fun to think that Sabathia could possibly repeat that. (Caleb Peiffer)

What package of prospects would it take the Rays to land Sabathia? Would the Indians be asking for a McGee, Hellickson, Jennings type deal or would they settle for less? And would the Rays be crazy to even go after Sabathia?(ehahmann from OutsPerSwing)

Mark Shapiro's good at making these kinds of deals, and the fact that we're talking about a reigning Cy Young winner whose numbers have been lights out since April means he's going to be in demand. It's going to take a lot to get him. (Dayn Perry)

OK Joe, I need your help. Will Carroll gave me an answer but Law and Stark both snubbed me. I have a bet with a buddy of mine over who would be voted the NL Cy Young if the season ended today. We need another opinion. There is a Yoo-hoo at stake. Help a guy out.(JoshEngleman from Tamaqua, PA)

Edinson Volquez. His ERA lead--having an ERA in the 1.00s gets attention--outweighs the wins he gives away to Webb. (Joe Sheehan)

Will, I really need an answer here. My friend and I are having an argument over who would be the Cy Young winner in the NL if the season ended today. We bet a Yoo-hoo on it. Who do you think it would be?(JoshEngleman from Tamaqua, PA)

If it's me voting, I'd probably go with Tim Lincecum. If you're asking who would win the voting? I'd guess Brandon Webb on wins for a winning team with Carlos Zambrano a close second. (Will Carroll)

Obviously Cliff Lee is going to come back to the mean. Any feel for how sudden? Do these things tend to be "whoops" and he gets battered around, or is it more likely that at some point he regresses to his average and bounces around that point?(Mistake by the Lake from Cleveland)

Cliff Lee is locked in. It's ridiculous, and I'm annoyed I haven't been able to watch any of it. I don't think Lee is going to get battered around. He's been an effective pitcher in the past, and he's had to deal with injuries the past few seasons. I don't think he's a Cy Young contender or anything, but he's capable of being above-average. [Opens Excel] his QERA is 2.30, and if you bump his BB% back to his career level, his QERA goes up to 3.03. Knock his K% down to 20%, and his QERA is 4.04. He's good. (Marc Normandin)

In your first, and very moving, article at BP (yes, I should have asked you this 4 years ago) you wrote:
"There's Joe McCarthy, a manager who never ripped a player in public...until the day he did."
I've always wondered who that player was. This can't be Babe Dahlgren is it?
(JimmyJack from Newcastle, WA)

No... It was Joe Page, future ace reliever. He had great stuff but was highly undisciplined off the field. Jerry Coleman told me he was self-destructive, a guy who couldn't let himself succeed. Later, of course, he had a couple of Cy Young-type years as the Yankees' fireman (closer would be the wrong word), but at that time he was still a starter, and failing. McCarthy was under a lot of pressure - drinking, dealing with wartime ballplayers, dealing with Larry MacPhail, who himself was a highly erratic personality due to alcohol, and something about Page just made him snap. While the team was waiting for a flight to take off (and McCarthy didn't like flying either - that was a MacPhail thing), McCarthy sat down next to Page and tore into him in front of the whole team. McCarthy resigned the next day. (Steven Goldman)

Now that Santana is out of the American League who do you see as the early favorite to win the Cy Young? Will Sabathia repeat or will someone step up and knock him off his perch?(Martin from New Jersey)

Okay Will, last year you said, on numerous occasions, and in spite of his struggles in '06, that Josh Beckett would be competing for the Cy Young in '07. He very nearly won it. Who's your man in '08?(Ed from Chicago)

Not quite Phil Nevin, but I'll take it. Beckett was an easy one because he had a good-to-dominant team that was going to allow him to put up big win totals. Same with Sabathia. Give me Beckett or Schilling in the AL with a side order of Verlander. The NL is a lot tougher since there's no dominant teams and the easy picks -- Zambrano, Hamels, Sheets - have big questions. I'll take Dan Haren. (Will Carroll)

Hi Will:
Who do you see as comeback player of the year in 2008?
Were you serious about Schilling for Cy Young; can he stay healthy enough to rack up those wins. The Sox were pretty cautious with him this year and it paid off well.(Pat Barry from Albany NY)

The Sox weren't cautious, they were smart. I think they can be smart all season and given the Sox talent, anyone that makes 34 starts for them could get to 20 wins. Note that the Cy is almost always decided on wins, which makes it relatively easy to predict. I'm not saying they're the BEST pitcher out there (though Sabathia was ... tho Bedard was better aside from the injury, but was on a terrible team.)

I'll admit to not really understanding the comeback player award. I'd guess someone like Ryan or maybe even Jon Lester could get votes. (Will Carroll)

The truly amazing thing about Halladay is the breakdown he had in 2000, when he was sent down and his mechanics overhauled. How many pitchers come back from that at all, let alone come back to become a perennial All-Star and Cy Young winner> (Steven Goldman)

Strasburg. Granted, he has to compete with the likes of Halladay, Lincecum, Haren, Oswalt, Santana, Wainwright, Carpenter...(you get the picture), but the Padres don't have the immediate firepower to overtake a team like the Rockies, especially if they deal their greatest offensive weapon, Adrian Gonzalez. (Steph Bee)

twinkies25 (MN): So, do you guys think that Chase Utley or Dan Haren will get any consideration for MVP and Cy Young? (not that they deserve them, but they both had fantastic years). The only thing seperating them from those awards are The Machine and The Freak (no offense for Cardinal and Giant fans, I love them as much as you do!!)

I tend not to worry so much about mid-ballot finishes. I do take umbrage with certain voters, for instance, leaving Halladay off of their ballot/out of the top three, but in the NL Haren shouldn't be in the top three, and Pujols is certainly the MVP, which isn't up for debate. Utley is definitely the most valuable Phillies player, but his MVP chances are nowhere near the same as, say, Wainwright or Carpenter winning the Cy over Lincecum. (Eric Seidman)