Watching cautiously amid signs of shift towards Tibet

After 120 self-immolations over the past four years, a
series of events in Tibetan regions has sparked speculation that Beijing is
rethinking its hard-line stance towards the ethnic minority.

Since
Radio Free Asia reported on Wednesday that open worship of the Dalai Lama was
no longer prohibited in Tibetan areas, international media have been buzzing
with cautious optimism.

What
is described as an "experimental" policy appears uncharacteristically
tolerant. Even interacting with the exiled Tibetan leader has been enough for
Beijing to keep overseas politicians out in the cold; British Prime Minister
David Cameron just finished a 14-month stint.

But
now, apparently, previously hidden portraits of the Dalai Lama can be displayed
in monasteries again - as long as a clear distinction is made between his
political and religious roles.

Are
things finally starting to look better for Tibetans? Not necessarily.

"While
the Dalai Lama photos carry symbolic importance to the Western audience, this
is not a very significant indicator for anyone in the Tibetan Autonomous
Region," said Robert Barnett, director of the Modern Tibetan Studies
Programme at Columbia University in New York. "We should be optimistic,
but this will not necessarily add up to what people would like it to."

In
fact, the ban was never strictly enforced in Qinghai and Sichuan , where it may
now in part be lifted, Barnett said. And besides, the policies from the more
lenient Tibetan areas very rarely spill over to the Tibetan Autonomous Region.

Also,
the eased policy may affect only a limited area. The Tibetan
government-in-exile in Dharamsala, India, said on Thursday that the reform had
only been reported from the areas with the highest rates of self-immolation.

The
most recent fatal protest was only three weeks ago, when 31-year-old Wangchen
Dolma set herself on fire near Tawu monastery in eastern Tibet.

Other
developments threaten to dim the prospects of a brighter future for Tibet.

A
report published by Human Rights Watch said two million Tibetans have been
forcibly relocated to "new socialist villages" since 2006. The moves
require Tibetans to sell yaks, farmland and other means of traditional
livelihood and survive on government handouts.

Last
week, a petition urging Unesco's World Heritage Committee to protect Lhasa's
old city from Beijing's "modernisation" drive collected its 100,000th
signature. Meanwhile, two Tibetan folk singers were jailed for allegedly
supporting "separatism" in a music video.

"What
matters to Beijing is how to cement its control," Bequelin said. "If
the religious policies don't help Beijing's objective to domesticate the region
- avoiding popular protest and ethnic tensions - then the leadership will
revise them.

"This
just reflects that the new leadership is more pragmatic about these issues, but
the fundamental policy has not changed. Ironically, the new policies also
reflect confidence from the government that it has increased control of the
monasteries."

Human
Rights Watch reported in March that a new surveillance "grid" with
more than 600 new police posts had been set up throughout Tibet, and that party
cadres had been stationed in all monasteries.

Still,
there are other indications that things may be stirring in Beijing.

Perhaps
more significant than the treatment of the Dalai Lama's portrait were two
high-profile visits to Tibet last week.

Travelling
to the region requires a special permit and remains extremely restricted for
foreigners, especially diplomats and the press. Last month Beijing lashed out
at a French documentary filmmaker who went to Tibet undercover as a tourist to
gather footage.

Nonetheless,
US ambassador Gary Locke was allowed to visit areas in and around Lhasa to
"increase familiarity with the local conditions".

It was
the first American diplomatic visit since 2010 and only the third in the past
decade and attracted much press coverage.

Few,
however, noted the arrival of Rigzin Wangmo, a daughter of the 10th Panchen
Lama. Rigzin Wangmo has been blocked by Beijing from visiting Tibet for many
years and was greeted by thousands of Tibetans in Lhasa, despite government
attempts to keep the visit secret.

"This
could be read as a signal that leaders are starting to pay attention to
cultural affairs of the Tibetans," Barnett said.

"These
visits suggest to Tibetans that hardliners of the Hu Jintao era are no longer
running the show. These are early signs that debate regarding Tibet is
allowed."

Still,
while many outside China would welcome a softer approach to Tibet, there may
still be little incentive for the leadership to improve the situation.

"Changing
ethnic policies is very risky and a direct personal liability," Bequelin
explains. "If it fails, the consequences for whoever is in office are
profound. And if it succeeds, well that's good, but who cares? The government
has bigger fish to fry right now."

NOTE—This article is republished from the South China
Morning Post and the writer can be reached kim.wall@scmp.com