Warriors analysis: The pros and cons of David Lee vs. Anthony Randolph

As is not unusual for me, I’ve been instantaneous about going all-out thumbs-down on the Warriors’ potential acquisition of David Lee for a package including Anthony Randolph, which would include a major new contract for Lee.

I don’t like the deal and I think it’s prototypical of a management team that doesn’t know what it’s doing, changes its mind A LOT, and just chases the latest, best, most superficial answer every summer.

Which gets itself in deeper and deeper trouble.

That the Warriors would be set to do this so now, with the team a few weeks or months away from being sold, possibly to a group that may or may not love Randolph or does not want to invest millions in a over-valued losing-record power forward… that is bizarre to me.

But to be fair, it’s not 100% anti-Lee in this argument. He has his strengths. Smart people like his game and don’t disapprove of the Warriors giving up Randolph in order to pay Lee.

Let’s break it down, hopefully not too wonkishly, and I will strenuously try to avoid over-saturating this thing with stats…

* AGE: Randolph will turn 21 next week. Lee is 27 and will turn 28 next April

–Big edge to Randolph. He’s about to hit his athletic prime and maybe find an emotional maturity at some point. He will probably get better, possibly tons better. Lee is right in the middle of his prime and a six-year contract would take him beyond it.

* PRODUCTIVITY: Lee has put up very good numbers, and last year was a break-through, putting up 20.2 points, 11.7 rebounds, nice assist totals and shooting 54.5%. He does it on a fast-paced team, so some of the the numbers are inflated, but his work ethic and durability are not to be under-valued.

Randolph has been hurt off and on through his two-season NBA career, with sporadic bursts of productivity and mostly (when he’s healthy) a push/pull with Don Nelson’s coaching beliefs.

Per-minute, Randolph has very good rebound, block and points totals. But can he stay healthy enough and get a coach to believe in him enough to get 30+ minutes and still maintain those averages?

Two alarming stats: Low FG% and a very high turnover rate.

–Big edge to Lee. He’s done it in the NBA, in the New York cauldron (even though it wasn’t that cauldron-y the last few years), and proved he can play fast-paced basketball. I throw out the All-Star selection last year just because he was pushed by the league among a weak East Conference big-man corps.

Randolph has been injury-prone and, as I always say, if you’re injury-prone in your early-20s, your far more likely remain injury-prone throughout your career.

* COMPATIBILITY TO WARRIORS’ PRESUMED STYLE: In my book, this basically translates to “compatability with Stephen Curry,” which is neither wrong nor hard to analyze.

If you can run to a spot, catch a pass, play pick-and-roll offense and help him on defense, you fit with Curry. In that skills range, Lee probably fits better than Randolph because Lee is a proven ace pick-and-roll diver. He ought to be very good with Curry.

Randolph can do a lot of things, but I’m not sure he has felt comfortable on the floor getting to the right spot for Curry to find him or to set a pick for Curry.

–Big edge to Lee. The best argument for doing this has five letters: C-U-R-R-Y. If Curry’s a superstar, then doing anything you can to build around him is smart. If he’s merely very good… then you don’t want to sacrifice overall talent just to fit with his game in order to win 42 games a season and just miss the playoffs for five straight years.

* SUITABILITY TO PLAY FOR AN ELITE TEAM: Yep, this is where it gets largely subjective and you can pummel me no doubt.

I always aim to see what the Warriors have to do to get to an elite level, and many long-time Warriors partisans just want them to aim for something a lot lower–non-dismalness, maybe because they’re a little scared of what it’d take to aim higher–and when they miss, they’re still happy being dismal, I guess. Comfortable.

My sense is that the Warriors are looking at Lee (over, say Kevin Love, who I believe they could’ve gotten for Randolph) as a basketball card–look at what he did, an All-Star!–more than as a basketball player.

I just don’t see Lee as a difference-making player on a winning team and his high-minute years with the Knicks only re-inforce that.

He’s a terrible defensive player. That is not arguable with me. He just lets people dribble past him consistently. He’ll go grab the rebound if they miss, but he won’t affect whether or not the guy misses.

I’ve gone over this in the previous item: If Lee’s such an awesome rebounder, why did the Knicks grab a better percentage of rebounds when Lee was OUT than when he was IN the game the last two seasons?

(Kevin Love last year: Minnesota grabbed 52.7% of the rebounds when he was IN, only 49% when he was OUT.)

Good player on a bad team that generates a lot of rebound opportunities. Bingo. He’ll probably be exactly the same, with much the same stat-line, when and if he’s with the Warriors.

If Randolph gets it together, he absolutely could have a Lamar Odom-style impact, and that would help any winning team and just helped a back-to-back title team. Again, that’s a big if with Randolph, but again, he’s 21, does unique things like run the floor, finish with force, and swat from the weakside.

He might not put it together. It’s worth holding on to see, though.

–Big edge to Randolph. Other than his youth, this is the most important edge Randolph has, and it’s a huge one.

You get Randolph away from Don Nelson (gee, who said those two didn’t get along? only a terrible person could’ve said that!) and playing for a coach that values defense and intensity and Randolph could be very, very valuable in two years. When he’ll be 23.

* SALARY: Lee is going to get more than $10M per year from the Warriors, if he comes, because the Warriors always overpay for their free agents. I’ve said $70M is the lowest end of what they’d pay and I’ll repeat for Warriors-supported partisans: When’s the last time they paid a veteran f/a the LOWEST they could? Never.

Randolph is still in his rookie deal, so he’s quite cheap at $1.96M this year. That’s exactly why the Knicks want him–they get a unique talent to put alongside Amare Stoudemire and Danilo Gallinari, and they still hoard space for a run at Carmelo Anthony or other potential free agents next summer.

Randolph will be eligible to negotiate a long-term extension next summer. He is looking for some major dough, and I can bet the W’s–even though Larry Riley & Robert Rowell are on their way out–were sweating vicariously about that potential negotiation.

–Edge to Randolph. Proper management of the Warriors’ cap would’ve easily given the room to sign Lee outright AND kept Randolph. That speaks to wise management, which, of course, the Warriors do not have.
So choking off their future cap with a moderate talent like Lee… is just like they did with Danny Fortson, Erick Dampier, Corey Maggette and all the rest.

—OVERALL: Lee gets the edge on productivity and fit with Curry, and if that all works out, the Warriors still look like a 40-win team to me. Lee also gets the edge for marketability, but I don’t include that category, even though I know the Warriors always do and geepers, Mookie Blaylock was so darn marketable he led them to the marketing playoffs.

Randolph gets the edge on age, salary and suitability to fit on an elite team… all three categories, to me, are the most important when you’re a bad team like the Warriors.

You don’t go for the basketball card. The one-time All-Star berth means nothing.

Again, I’m not saying Lee is a bad player. In fact, I like his hustle, he has pretty good hands, he works hard–fans will like that–and there’s a chance he gave up on defense just because the Knicks were so bad and that part of his game possibly can be revived.

But will all of that make a difference with this Warriors roster for years to come? I don’t think it will. Given Lee’s defensive lapses, it will be sameness.

Randolph is a big question mark. No doubt. He’s still more valuable than Lee right now and I don’t think it’s close.

If he gets hurt in NY right away, you can laugh at me. If he doesn’t stay long: Laugh at me.

I’ll still stick with Randolph over Lee. I would not object to signing Lee outright, for something around $60M, though I wouldn’t think it was the best thing possible for the Warriors.

It’s bad management of the cap and resources that has forced them to offer Randolph to get the right to pay Lee… which would be another instance of bad management of cap and resources.

In my analysis. Differing opinions are expected and welcome, but I might fire back, too, of course.