Uncertainty in the design and simulation of reservoirs

Insufficient information associated with historical data may require utilization of time series techniques, which in turn would result in record generation with sources of uncertainty. This type of effect can be evaluated by incorporation of parameter uncertainty into the data generation process. In this research the effects of parameter uncertainty incorporation and sequential reduction of record length on reservoir storage-demand and efficiency parameters (failure and total shortfall) were studied. The SPIGOT package was used for data generation for two reservoirs with high and low inflow variances. Based on the results, record length reduction had minimal effect on the storage of reservoir with low inflow variance, while failure and shortfall increased. Also incorporation of parameter uncertainty was more effective than 100% reduction of the record length. For the case of the reservoir with high inflow variance an irregular trend was observed in all cases