Monday, August 20, 2012

1. There is a close election in November, and the losing side has a credible case that the winning side cheated in some way. Some voters on their side were turned away from the polls because of technicalities, or some votes on the other side were counted that should not have been. Whatever.

2. The losers launch a campaign not to accept the results of the election. They organize a massive rally in Washington to try to block entrances at government agencies and Congress.

3. Similar protest movements break out at state capitals.

4. The winners get angry at the protesters. They launch counter-protests.

5. Confrontations take place, and people get hurt. Powerful resentments build.

6. Significant segments on both sides arm themselves in order to retaliate for the perceived wrongs of the other side. Fighting escalates.

Yes, it is far-fetched. But I would argue that it is even more far-fetched, even if the election result is not in dispute, that the losing side will politely accept it and adopt a constructive, compromising stance.

This year's pre-election hatefest is already out of control, in my opinion. It will not end well.

The main problem with the whole scenario is that the electorate -- the voting populace -- is the *least* partisan and polarized of any on record.

Polls show that more voters today are independent -- not committed to either party -- than at any time since modern polling started and the question was first asked. The voting public is less ideological and more moderate (and, as independents typically are, more apathetic) than ever.

That's not a populace that starts a civil war.

The idea that politics today is more polarized than ever is a total myth. Frankly it relies on huge ignorance of history.

The voters are less polarized than ever. It is the *partisans* who are polarized, and the *pundits* -- out of self-interest. A moderate electorate doesn't help the partisans conquer their enemies or the pundits get famous and rich -- so *they* are trying to whip up the masses.

But while the partisans at MSNBC and Fox spew, their combined total audiences are tiny and dwarfed by the masses watching American Idol.