The global economy continues to head downwards while the financial markets are enjoying a spectacular recovery.

In the coming years, the fallout from this clash for tech supremacy of the two giants will define much of the world’s economic and geopolitical landscape, hitting (or favouring) companies’ valuations in the process.

The world is sleepwalking into a whirlwind of risks at the nexus of accelerating global warming / extreme weather events and growing geopolitical turmoil.

The shrinking middle class is another fundamental trend in terms of economic and political outlook. For the first time in generations (in the Western world), an increasing number of people risk slipping down the socio-economic ladder rather than moving up it.

The global and multi-faceted scandal engulfing the Roman Catholic Church is occurring in the wake of the #MeToo phenomenon (which, in the US alone, has brought down more than 200 powerful men since Oct. 2017), and is part of the much broader picture of male-dominated organisations now falling foul of their own shortcomings.A storm of regulations and much higher taxes for the wealthiest individuals will eventually come because even radical proposals like Ocasio-Cortez plan for a 70% tax rate on incomes over $10m do well in the polls.

If just one word were to capture the mood in Davos, it would be gloom. Disenchantment and nervousness were pervasive at this year’s gathering.

The business leaders and investors assembled in Davos know that the days of the incumbent form of capitalism are numbered. Most realise that they ignore the common good at their peril. What does this mean for investors?

Brexit is not a one-off to be done and dusted, but rather an on-going process that will drag down the UK economy and exhaust its politics for years to come.

As epitomized by the Huawei saga, the growing rivalry between China and the US (now enlarging to the West) is exerting a negative impact on many businesses’ bottom line, and will increasingly do so.

In “Surveillance Capitalism”, Shoshana Zuboff makes the case that customers are being reinvented as data sources. This produces anti-democratic asymmetries of knowledge that in turn transform our economies and societies. Her argument will gain traction in 2019, exacerbating the tech backlash, and putting the issue of privacy firmly at the core of new laws, regulation and collective action.

Any possible economic upside is limited – looking forward from an economic, geopolitical and political standpoint, the good times are on hold.

Two major economic uncertainties will dominate 2019.

The French Yellow Vests’ eruption was sparked by a tiny gasoline tax and fuelled by social media. It’s about people from the lower middle class who have difficulties making ends meet.

In many countries, labour markets have improved – to such an extent that some are near full employment. Yet something is substantially broken when it comes to work.

An increasing number of opinion-makers and academics (including from the right) are coming to the conclusion Capitalism, as we know it, is broken – perhaps beyond repair. This is echoed by the younger generation: today more Americans between 18 and 29 are positive about socialism (51% versus 68% in 2010) than capitalism (45%). What happens next?

In 2019, central bank independence will become increasingly imperilled.

A 2018 will be remembered as the year when the tide turned against tech.

A Chinese scientist’s claim that he genetically engineered two HIV resistant babies has provoked outrage among regulators, medical experts and ethicists.

Tech AI companies are selling recruitment technology to both large employers and individuals (to choose a babysitter for example) that assesses candidates not only on their online history but also on an analysis of their voice tone and facial movements to detect “bad attitudes”.

The global economic outlook is deteriorating, while a combination of (1) global debt overhang and (2) rising tensions (not only trade) between the US and China is imposing a hard ceiling on any possible upside.

The era of “patriotic capitalism” is upon us. As inter-state competition and rivalry rises, countries all around the world will favour their national champions.

Almost all equity markets had a horrible month. As always, there isn’t a single catalyst, but rather a host of triggers.

The US President sees himself as the last opportunity his country has to keep China’s ascendancy in check; he’ll therefore do all he can to limit its technological, economic and strategic expansion.

Recent data shows that investments in the US are becoming less attractive relative to those in the rest of the world.

For the last decade in all rich countries, the curse of low wage growth has fed the mounting populist rebellion and concurrent backlash against technology. Thereis now one exception: the Eurozone.

Extreme weather occurrences (in the form of heat waves) are currently engulfing much of the world. 2018 is likely to surpass the globe’s five hottest years on record (in rank: 2016, 2015, 2017, 2014 and 2010).

The plunge of Facebook and Twitter (down by almost 20% each in a day) crystallizes the potential fragility of some companies in the tech sector and the coming divergence between those that do social media and others that provide tangible services (like shopping for Amazon).

Mounting concerns about trade are exacerbating the deceleration in global growth expectations.

The chance Trump will be re-elected is real, with a substantial likelihood that the same policy – America owes nothing to anyone – will be pursued.

A rising dollar is bad for all risk assets, but this is particularly true for EM assets. As the Fed continues to reduce its balance sheet, it will drain dollar liquidity and will make $ denominated EM debt more precarious.

China’s indebtedness continues to grow faster than its capacity to service the debt.

Millennials, who are now coming of age and approaching their peak earning years, are going to reshape consumption into a much more fragmented market.

Tech change and the coming wave of disruption are not linear but exponential.

In a majority of rich countries, the migration issue is moving to the forefront of policy and discontent – a paradox, considering that for the first time since 2011, migration to the richest 35 countries has dropped.

While most forecasts for global growth remain buoyant (at about 4% this year), there are a few warning signs that suggest it is about to slow.

Slowing exports of Korean semiconductors (considered as the leading indicator of global trade growth) also signal weaker global trade growth in the coming months, and in turn softer manufacturing output and investment.

The real US policy intent is not trade, but technology.

The Italian election’s results gives credence to the theory that regional inequality comes ahead of personal inequity as a cause of populist revolt.

A recent study by the Bank of Japan is grist to our longstanding-conviction-mill that demographics will subdue inflation and real interest rates for decades.

It’s hard to say exactly when corporate activism will have a defining impact on share performance, but the direction of the trend is clear.

The prevailing common wisdom is that India will benefit from the demographic dividend of its youth bulge. Yet this is by no means a given.