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Top Trade Idea 2019: Short EUR/CHF as European Issues - Including Brexit - Weigh

EUR/CHF traded broadly sideways in a range between 1.12 and 1.15 between early August and early December 2018 after dropping from a 1.20 high in April. That stability seems odd given that the UK is due to leave the EU in March 2019 and there is a high probability that the UK will leave with no deal.

EUR/CHF Price Chart: Daily Timeframe (January 2017 to December 2018)

So far, the principal impact of the Brexit negotiations has been on the British Pound but if the UK leaves without a deal that will be strongly negative for the EU’s economy as well as the UK’s. That could not only weaken the Euro but also strengthen “safe-haven” currencies like the Swiss Franc. My top trade for 2019 is therefore to sell EUR/CHF, with the 2017 lows around 1.06 a possible target.

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