Highlights
Sales of new homes slowed but not all the data in January's new home sales report are negative. New home sales came in at a much lower-than-expected 593,000 annualized rate in January though, in offsets, the two prior months are revised a net 25,000 higher. And badly needed supply moved into the market, up a monthly 2.4 percent to 301,000 units for sale. On a sales basis, supply jumped above 6 months to 6.1 months vs 5.5 and 4.9 months in the two prior months.

But sales in January were definitely soft as the rate in the South, which is by far the largest housing region, fell 14.2 percent to a 301,000 rate with the Northeast, which had been coming on strong, down 33.3 percent to only a 24,000 rate. Year-on-year, sales in the West are doing best at plus 33.1 percent with the South down, however, a steep 10.9 percent. Overall, new home sales are down a yearly 1.0 percent.

Prices are another negative in the report, down 4.1 percent for the median to $323,000 though the yearly rate is still positive at 2.5 percent.

The new home market surged into the end of last year but understandably slowed in January. Yet supply, that is the lack of it, is an overwhelming issue for the market and today's details, including gains underway for permits and starts which are growing in the mid-to-high single digits, are positives for the outlook.

Consensus Outlook
Month-to-month volatility is common for new home sales but behind it all is a strongly rising trend. After falling nearly 10 percent in December to a 625,000 annualized rate, new home sales are expected to come in at a 640,000 rate in January. Supply of new homes came into the market in December which should be a plus for January's sales.

Definition
New home sales measure the number of newly constructed homes with a committed sale during the month. The level of new home sales indicates housing market trends and, in turn, economic momentum and consumer purchases of furniture and appliances.
Why Investors Care

There is no question that lower interest rates boost home sales. Other factors also impact housing decisions, such as employment and income growth, and wealth stemming from stock market gains.Data Source: Haver Analytics