Doom and Gloom Sells

We have noticed that despite an improvement in the economic
fundamentals of the United States as per the robust manufacturing numbers,
automobile sales data, and upbeat employment numbers in 2014 many go out of
their way to find negatives in every economic report instead of focusing on the
relativeness of the data. In other words, are we doing better in these areas
than two years ago on an “apples to apples comparison” basis?

‘Relative Improvement’ versus ‘Relative
Perfection’

Sure there are things in most economic reports that could be
better in an ideal world, and this world is far from ideal, and is coming back
from a tough period after a structurally significant deleveraging process due
to the cyclical natures of economies and business.

But to just pick apart negative aspects of a good econ
report because growth isn`t as fast as it could be, or employment isn`t perfect
compared to the 1950`s boom is shortsighted and misses the real point of these
reports, which is to show the trend in relation to the past six years. The
relative improvement in the data over an annual basis compared to the previous
three years, two years, and a year ago levels. Is the trend still in place,
what is this trend, has a new trend emerged? This is what we are looking for in
the data comparisons, and not whether the econ reports are ‘perfect’!

For instance take the employment reports, we just had the
fourth straight 200k plus Employment Report, a trend we haven`t had since the
year 2000, yes 14 years, and in even good and bad economic cycles, and people
could point to the level of participation as their sole focus if so inclined.

I think there are many structural issues behind the
participation rate that are much more complex than the simplistic view that there
are simply not enough good paying jobs so these workers have given up hope. But
regardless, first we have to employ the individuals who are in the job market,
and we are doing a pretty damn good job of that right now “relatively speaking”
to two years ago when 80k was the norm, remember it is all about ‘relative
improvement’, and not ‘relative perfection’ in the data.

However, I think this cynical enduring pessimism goes far
beyond economic reports, and is really a reflection of culture spawned through
the modern news media and online dialogue that is message boards, blogs and
social & political commentary.

It just has been hip, financially beneficial and downright uncreatively
easy to take the negative angle regarding any subject for the last decade. Now
I am not saying that one should ignore reality at all costs, read Dr. Norman
Vincent Peale`s The Power of Positive Thinking, and think everything is rosy in
the world that we live in. But by the same token it seems equally, and even
less beneficial in some respects to always look real hard for negatives at the expense
of acknowledging the complete picture in any thorough going analysis.

For instance, these are strengths in the report, these are
the weaknesses of the report, but overall the big picture is telling us that
this is a good economic report. Versus the trend today is too ignore anything
good in an economic report, find a negative, push this angle for all it`s
worth, and celebrate one`s ‘critical thinking’ abilities, and maybe even make a
name for oneself in the all-important media landscape.

Negative Behavioralism

In short, one can always look hard enough and point out some
kind of negative, because as negatives go, they often are the result of necessary
tradeoffs for the positives in this world, even in highly productive and
efficient operating systems.

It isn`t lost the fact that people seem to like to hear
negative stuff, they seem to revel in it at times, it sure seems to sell by the
news produced in this country for the last 50 years, it almost provides
entertainment drama that somehow is lacking in people`s daily lives.

However, the evolutionary goal for humans is to best
understand how their environment is actually functioning, in order to better
adapt to this environment, or change this environment where possible, and
improve quality of life as a species and civilization.

So you’re a rebel, a real devil`s advocate, go against the
grain for the sake of going against the grain type individual, yep you found
the negative, good for you! But is your analysis the best approximation for what
is going on in the world, or has it become second nature to always see the
negative in everything that you analyze from a behavioral standpoint?

Have you become conditioned to always see the negative at
the expense of missing the bigger picture? By focusing solely on the negative,
is your world view the best explanation for what is actually occurring in the
world? Has your ‘Negativeness’ become reflexive and ‘lazy intellectualism’?

Five Consecutive 200k Employment
Reports

I don`t know about you but I will sure cheer another 200kplus employment report hitting the wire next month, things are looking up in
the economy, and better times are ahead for many Americans! Society and the
world is going to move forward, with or without you; it overcomes setbacks and
strives to make improvements in progress towards greater goals. Unremittingly
stuck in ‘Negative Land’ may be socially chic, but it sure doesn`t capture what
is the essence of human creativity and innovation, and it sure limits
possibilities.