3 parishes' population estimates go way up in Census recalculation

Responding to challenges from local officials, the U.S. Census Bureau has dramatically boosted its estimates of the number of people who lived in Orleans, Jefferson and St. Bernard parishes in mid-2007, delivering a morale booster to the region and probably steering more federal aid to local governments.

In New Orleans, where Mayor Ray Nagin and others decried the initial count as woefully low, federal officials revised their estimate of the city's population on July 1, 2007, from 239,124 to 288,113, census spokesman Tom Edwards said Wednesday. That's an increase of more than 20 percent.

The most dramatic jump, percentage-wise, was seen in St. Bernard, where the agency bumped up its estimate by 69 percent, from an initial count of 19,826 to 33,439, he said.

And while Jefferson Parish's tally grew by only 4 percent -- from 423,520 to 440,339 people -- the boost made the suburban parish the most populous in the state at the time.

Initial numbers gave that designation to East Baton Rouge Parish, which had 430,317 people on July 1, 2007, according to the census. Officials there did not challenge the figure.

Officials across the region lauded the news as validation of the area's strong growth after the mass relocations forced by Hurricane Katrina. They also pointed to a vital practical benefit: the anticipated boost in federal money for education, homeless assistance, child care, elderly assistance, law enforcement and other programs that are tied to population.

Maggie Merrill, the city's point person for the census challenge, said New Orleans expects to receive an additional $45.6 million in federal money per year, based on a per-capita breakdown of federal grants. Officials are still researching whether money might be available retroactively and, if so, how much, she said.

The revised count could give New Orleanians a psychological lift, Merrill said. "It does validate the fact that people really are here to focus on recovery and are committed to this city, " she said.

St. Bernard Parish President Craig Taffaro said the recalibration of the estimate is significant, symbolically and financially.

"It sends the message of momentum, " he said.

Taffaro said the new number could mean as much as $13 million more per year in federal money for government entities in the parish.

Bert Smith, Jefferson's deputy chief administrative officer, said the nearly 17,000-person increase in his parish's population estimate should translate into about $18 million more in annual federal dollars.

Besides allowing Jefferson to reclaim its bragging rights as the state's most populous parish, the revised figure also brings the parish's population to just 9,300 short of its pre-Katrina count of 449,640, Smith said.

"The bottom line is that we are very pleased, " he said.

Greg Harper, a Census Bureau demographer, said the revision was based on several new data sources provided by local parishes.

In years between decennial population counts, the census usually estimates the number of residents in a jurisdiction by using birth and death records, information from tax returns and, in some cases, housing statistics, such as construction and demolition permits, Harper said.

In their challenges, officials from Orleans and Jefferson parishes bolstered that with data on electrical accounts, building permits and mail service. St. Bernard officials provided records of utility connections and trash collection sites, he said.

All data had to be provided for each year dating back to 2000, he said.

Allison Plyer of the Greater New Orleans Community Data Center, which assisted City Hall in its challenge, said she was pleased with the revised result, though she described it as "a little conservative."

Census officials counted as occupied households only those that used more than 200 kilowatt hours of electricity per month, Plyer said -- excluding as many as 10,000 people that homeless advocates say are squatting in blighted homes in New Orleans.

The failure of many of the working poor to file tax returns could exacerbate the undercount, she said.

"It's likely that their number is still a little bit low, but we're happy with the large increase, " she said.

Officials agreed that beyond financial and psychological effects, the successful challenges have better prepared local governments to dispute, if necessary, the July 1, 2008, estimates, due in late March or early April.

"It should be a much easier process, " Merrill said.

The results probably won't affect the next census in 2010 because that involves a nationwide person-by-person count, not an estimate, Harper said.

Of about 35,000 parishes, counties, cities and other jurisdictions where the bureau conducts annual population estimates, about 60 filed challenges to the 2007 estimates and received revised numbers.

Only one other Louisiana locality, Alexandria, challenged its 2007 estimate. The bureau agreed to boost the city's population figure from 45,857 to 48,173, Edwards said.

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Chris Kirkham and Paul Rioux contributed to this story.Michelle Krupa can be reached at mkrupa@timespicayune.com or 504.826.3312.