He would also win New York. He would win Long Island, Northen Suburbs of NYC in a rout. He would also hold down loss rates in NYC through a patchwork coalition of white ethnics and Jews in the Outer boroughs of NYC that helped him win mayorship. He would also handily win Upstate.

In a 49-state landslide for the Democrats, why would Virginia be the last Republican holdout? I'd expect the last Republican holdout to be Utah, Mississippi, Alabama, or South Carolina.

He is tweaking all of the Democrats on the board who continually insist that Virginia is a swing state. Then, when it turns out not to be close, they come in and say it is trending Dem and will be a swing state in 4 years.