Tropical Storm EMILIA

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TROPICAL STORM EMILIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062006
200 PM PDT SUN JUL 23 2006
CONVECTIVE BANDING HAS CONTINUED TO INCREASE AND IMPROVE. T-NUMBERS
FROM ALL THREE AGENCIES ARE A CONSENSUS T3.5/55 KT...AND A 3-HR
AVERAGE ADT FROM UW-CIMSS IS T3.7/59 KT. GIVEN THE BANDING EYE
FEATURE OCCASIONALLY APPEARING IN BOTH CONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE
SATELLITE IMAGERY...THE INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 60 KT.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 300/07 KT. THE FORWARD SPEED HAS DECREASED
SLIGHTLY...WHICH IS LIKELY JUST A TEMPORARY TREND AND PROBABLY DUE
TO THE INNER CORE BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED. THE LARGE MID- TO
UPPER-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S.
AND EXTENDING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO MEXICO IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN
PLACE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. DEEP-LAYER SOUTHEAST TO EASTERLY
STEERING FLOW ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE SHOULD
FORCE EMILIA ON A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWESTWARD TRACK
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN MUCH
BETTER AGREEMENT NOW WITH THE GFS AND THE GFS ENSEMBLE MODELS
HAVING MADE A SIGNIFICANT NORTHWARD SHIFT INTO THE MAIN MODEL
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS JUST AN EXTENSION
OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND IS SIMILAR TO THE CONU CONSENSUS MODEL.
CONVECTIVE BANDS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND WRAP TIGHTLY AROUND THE
CIRCULATION CENTER...AND AN EYE MAY BECOME APPARENT IN CONVENTIONAL
IMAGERY DURING THE NEXT 6-12 HOURS IF THE RECENT DEVELOPMENT TREND
CONTINUES. THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW HAS CONTINUED TO EXPAND AND
BECOME MORE SYMMETRICAL. FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO...EMILIA IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER SSTS OF 28-29C AND IN A LOW OR NO SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT. ALL OF THESE FACTORS SUGGEST THAT A PERIOD OF RAPID
INTENSIFICATION ENSUE SHORTLY...AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE
OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST BETWEEN THE 12H TO 24 H FORECAST
PERIODS. BY 48 HOURS...EMILIA IS FORECAST TO BE MOVING OVER SUB-25C
SSTS...WHICH SHOULD INDUCE A STEADY OR RAPID WEAKENING TREND.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 23/2100Z 18.4N 107.8W 60 KT
12HR VT 24/0600Z 19.0N 109.0W 70 KT
24HR VT 24/1800Z 19.7N 110.5W 85 KT
36HR VT 25/0600Z 20.4N 112.0W 85 KT
48HR VT 25/1800Z 21.1N 113.4W 70 KT
72HR VT 26/1800Z 22.6N 116.1W 40 KT...DISSIPATING
96HR VT 27/1800Z 24.5N 119.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 28/1800Z 26.5N 122.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
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