2012-13 US assignments speculation

Zaitsev/Stevens might not move up to Junior level for the next season -- no one will know until early summer.

They were first year Novice's this year, and a bit young compared to the other medalists (12 and he just turned 18 a couple weeks ago). They had some easier throws and SBS jumps compared to the other Novice medalists. They could gain the more difficult jumps needed in junior by summer, or may need an extra season. Since they're coached by S. Zaitsev, I would expect them to follow a similar path that Andrews/Anderson followed (2 years at Novice -- finishing in the middle of the pack the first year, and won their second year), before moving on to Juniors. Give "Divette & Utah" some time, if they need it.

I know this is an old thread, but both US jr nationals and JWC have just concluded. We now know the number of JGP slots the US receive, so I figured that this might be a good time to revive this thread.

Incidentally, if my math is correct, US will receive the maximum slots allowed to each discipline, and the highest number of JGP slots because of the outstanding results our young representatives produced (Yes, we get more than Russia, Japan & China!) Well done, guys!

First the number of available JGP slots for the US jr skaters based on the JWC results (Men - silver & bronze; Ladies - silver; Ice Dance - bronze; Pairs - 4th):

Men: 15 slots (2 skaters per event and 3 skaters for the host country event);Ladies: 15 slots (2 skaters per event and 3 skaters for the host country event);Ice Dance: 15 slots (2 couples per event and 3 couples for the host country event); Pairs: 12 slots* (3 pairs per event) - Pairs are contested only among four out of seven JGP events.

* I am assuming the maximum pair slots we can get is 12, rather than 13 pairs, since the ISU rules for the host country is 3 slots even if the US sponsor a pair event.

Since I follow ice dancing the closest, I will start with that particular discipline, and perhaps posters interested in other disciplines can fill out singles and pairs slots.

Ice Dance:

1. Loraine McNamara/Quinn Carpenter,
2. the Parsons siblings,
3. Madeline Heritage/Nathaniel Fast, and
4. Kaitlin Hawayek/Michael Bramante (3rd, 4th, 5th, and 6th at nationals)
are very likely to receive at least one assignment each. They are also all finishing up the first season as juniors. The highest finish at this season's JGP among this group were the 4th (H/B), and 5th (H/F), so they all have room for improving their international standings.

Banacorsi/Mager, and Gamelins are aged out as it was stated previously. Aldridge/Eason, though technically they are eligible to be in junior one more year, I am not certain if they wish, given that they pracitically achieved all off their season's goals (medalling both JGP events, skating at JGPF; us champions, and medalling at JWR).

5. The Novice national champtions, Holly Moore (16)/Daniel Klaber (18) are very likely to move up to junior and will receive a JGP assignment.
6. The Novice silver medalists, Whitney Miller (13) /Kyle McMillan (14) are an interesting case. They are still quite young, and the USFSA in general is disinclined to send very young stakers for oversea competitions. However, in spite of their age, M/M finished only 1.4 point behind the champions (109.53 vs. 108.13). Therefore, if M/M choose to move up to jr, they have a very good chance to receive an assignment.

I am also hoping that the US sends more ice dance teams to JGP competitions for the upcoming season than the current season. That is, although USFSA in 2011-2012 season was allowed to send the maximum of 14 teams, USFSA used up only 10 slots (a total of 7 teams with the top three finishing teams, Aldridge/Eaton, Banacorsi/Mager, and Hawayek/Bramante being assigned twice.)

I understand the rational for sending only those teams that have chance to earn the JGPF entry to be sent twice, presumably due to economic considerations. Given the depth and breadth of US ice dancing field, I would really like to see more teams with international exposure, especially since we are hosting one event this year with lesser cost for travelling.

P.S.: The number of slots the US receive depends on the assumption that ISU does not change rules over the summer, which, as we know, is no certain matter.

Men: 15 slots (2 skaters per event and 3 skaters for the host country event);Ladies: 15 slots (2 skaters per event and 3 skaters for the host country event);Ice Dance: 15 slots (2 couples per event and 3 couples for the host country event); Pairs: 12 slots* (3 pairs per event) - Pairs are contested only among four out of seven JGP events.

* I am assuming the maximum pair slots we can get is 12, rather than 13 pairs, since the ISU rules for the host country is 3 slots even if the US sponsor a pair event.

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The current rule (published in the 2010-11 JGP Announcement) says that "Concerning the Organizing Member there is no limitation in the number of entries in its Pair&#8217;s event." However, I assume USFS' budget for the Lake Placid JGP as well as the number of pairs they feel are "JGP worthy" will determine if more than 3 pairs are sent.

Aldridge/Eason, though technically they are eligible to be in junior one more year, I am not certain if they wish, given that they pracitically achieved all off their season's goals (medalling both JGP events, skating at JGPF; us champions, and medalling at JWR).

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My guess is that Aldridge/Eaton may want to compete a final season on the JGP to gain valuable ISU World ranking points, etc. before going senior internationally. We'll have to wait and see what they decide to do.

ETA: Two more age-eligible teams in Junior from 2012 Nationals are Pogrebinsky/Gudis (J8) who were included in the ISP this season, and Mancini/Brooks (J9) who had 1 JGP. The male partners in the Junior teams of Bertsch/Kaplun (J7) and Howe/Jahnke (J10) have turned 21 so have aged out.

My guess is that Aldridge/Eaton may want to compete a final season on the JGP to gain valuable ISU World ranking points, etc. before going senior internationally. We'll have to wait and see what they decide to do.

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Definitely wise to wait and see what changes (if any) there will be to GP selections this upcoming season. I didn't have time to look before responding here, but I'm fairly certain that JW and JGP medalists are no longer guaranteed a GP spot. With the ISU dropping the number of dance teams at GP's, they would probably need to rely on being a host pick for SA or getting a Senior B. Might be risky giving the depth of senior dance right now for the US. I can definitely see them being strong enough to compete junior internationally and senior at nationals.

The current rule (published in the 2010-11 JGP Announcement) says that "Concerning the Organizing Member there is no limitation in the number of entries in its Pairs event." However, I assume USFS' budget for the Lake Placid JGP as well as the number of pairs they feel are "JGP worthy" will determine if more than 3 pairs are sent.

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Thank you for clarifying the tricky part of ISU rules. I wondered about this part as you see from the "*" I had placed.

My guess is that Aldridge/Eaton may want to compete a final season on the JGP to gain valuable ISU World ranking points, etc. before going senior internationally. We'll have to wait and see what they decide to do.

My guess is that Aldridge/Eaton may want to compete a final season on the JGP to gain valuable ISU World ranking points, etc. before going senior internationally. We'll have to wait and see what they decide to do.

Definitely wise to wait and see what changes (if any) there will be to GP selections this upcoming season. I didn't have time to look before responding here, but I'm fairly certain that JW and JGP medalists are no longer guaranteed a GP spot. With the ISU dropping the number of dance teams at GP's, they would probably need to rely on being a host pick for SA or getting a Senior B. Might be risky giving the depth of senior dance right now for the US. I can definitely see them being strong enough to compete junior internationally and senior at nationals.

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I always learn so much from FSU. Initially I was not certain just how valuable ISU World ranking points were. Now I have much better ides. After the GP eligibility change that occurred during the current season, Tammi, you are absolutely right. JW & JGP medalists are no longer guaranteed of a GP spot. According to "GP General Announcement 2011_2012 2.2.(c):

"Medallists from the ISU World Junior Figure Skating Championships 2011 and the medallists from the ISU Junior Grand Prix of Figure Skating Final 2010/11 will be included in the selection process. Skaters/couples who have stated their intention to skate as Senior in 2011/12 might be included in the Grand Prix event(s) if they fulfill the requirements of the minimum score."

In other words, the rules dictate that the only skaters/couples guaranteed for two GP slots are the skaters/couples whose world rankings are from 1 - 12. That's it.

One GP slot is guaranteed for those skaters:

"...with an ISU World Standing placement of 1 &#8211; 24 (after season 2010/11) and skaters/couples with seasonal best scores in the top 24 (for season 2010/11) who do not hold an ISU World Standing placement of 1 &#8211; 24 will be guaranteed one (1) event..." (GP General Announcement 2011_2012 2.2.(b))

Aldridge/Eaton's current World Standing is 33, and their seasonal best scores is the 15th. Their rankings surely will slide downward once the 2012 Senior WC scores are tallied. Given A/E's current standings, it certainly makes better sense to at least wait their decision whether to move up to senior cercuit.

There's a risk for Aldridge/Eaton remaining Junior internationally next season. All three of the top Russian teams will still be junior-eligible, and if they all stay junior (a real possibility), A/E could wind up like the Shibutanis in their last JGP season: pushed off the JW 2013 podium. Even if the top Russian team goes senior, Russia has a plethora of young talented teams that could unexpectedly "blossom" at JW.

There's a risk for Aldridge/Eaton remaining Junior internationally next season. All three of the top Russian teams will still be junior-eligible, and if they all stay junior (a real possibility), A/E could wind up like the Shibutanis in their last JGP season: pushed off the JW 2013 podium. Even if the top Russian team goes senior, Russia has a plethora of young talented teams that could unexpectedly "blossom" at JW.

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Yes, there's always that kind of risk. On the other hand, Lichtman/Copley, the last year's Jr. US champions and JWC bronze medalists, just like A/E are this year, had a rather unremarkable senior debut season (7th finish at COC GP assignment, and the 10th finish at nationals).

You never know. I guess the only thing A/E can control is to focus on improving their skills regardless of which circuit they skate. They also have a world-class choreographer (Camerlengo) and excellent coaching team headed by Angelica Krylova at their corner.

If Farris and Brown decided to do GP, would they be able to each get 2 assignments or only 1? I assume this would factor into their decision making, already they are ahead of Dornbush, Mroz, Mahbanoozadeh on the SB list, and Farris is even ahead of Rippon now and likely to stay in the top 24 after Worlds (Brown could also feasibly, but he is closer to the cutoff so there's more of a chance he gets bumped off if some ppl below him currently really deliver at Worlds, off the top of my mind I can think of Joubert, KVDP, Contesti but there might be others i'm forgetting). WS for both is somewhere in the 30s I believe. So my question is, if they stay in the top 24 for SB after Worlds and chose to do GP, are they likely to get 2 assignments or just one? I feel like they should both be able to get 2 but idk what the protocol is and now with the reduced spots and further, is there a chance skaters out of the top 24 for SB (Dornbush, Mroz, Mahbanoozadeh) get 2 assignments or no? Or even if they did, would they be behind Farris and Brown in terms of pecking order because of this?

Once again, there will be quite a few U.S. ladies vying for the [15 JGP ladies] spots. I assume initial preference might go to those ladies with a solid 3F, since the flip is the required solo jump in the junior SP next season. Based on that, I think frontrunners for JGP spots would be Angela Wang (Senior 8th), Leah Keiser (Senior 12th), Ashley Cain (Junior 2nd), Hannah Miller (Junior 3rd), Barbie Long (Junior 4th), and Polina Edmunds (Junior 6th). Kiri Baga (Senior 10th) and Mariah Bell (Junior 5th) may also be considered since they have nice 3F's. Not sure about the plans of Vanessa Lam and Yasmin Siraj yet, but they're sure to be in the mix too.

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Also in the mix should be Nina Jiang (S11) who has landed 3F before, McKinzie Daniels (S13, who placed ahead of Siraj at Nationals), and Courtney Hicks as long as she has recovered fully from her injury (ditto for Samantha Cesario since she has one more season of ISU Junior age eligibility left).

I'm just hoping that for the JGP spots that the USFSA keeps a closer eye on summer comps. Very nice that ISU junior-age skaters do well at Nationals, but the summer comps ought to influence JGP selection more than they seem to. A lot can change with a junior-level skater in six months, and relying almost solely on last January's results when assignments are made in July, August and September is not especially helpful.

If Farris and Brown decided to do GP, would they be able to each get 2 assignments or only 1?

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Well, unless the rules change from last year, they will be guaranteed one, depending on where they end up in the world standings or seasons best. They are 31/34 on the world standings, but are 16/19 on Seasons Best list... however they may be pushed down by men skating at worlds. If they can hold in the top 24, considering they medaled at Junior worlds, I think they'll get their 2 assignments.

Here are the rules from last year:

b) Skaters/couples with an ISU World Standing placement of 1 &#8211; 24 (after season 2010/11) and skaters/couples with seasonal best scores in the top 24 (for season 2010/11) who do not hold an ISU World Standing placement of 1 &#8211; 24, will be guaranteed one (1) event if they do not otherwise meet the
criteria listed in paragraphs 2.1 or 2.2 above and the minimum score.

c) Medallists from the ISU World Junior Figure Skating Championships 2011 and the medallists from the ISU Junior Grand Prix of Figure Skating Final 2010/11 will be included in the selection process. Skaters/couples who have stated their intention to skate as Senior in 2011/12 might be included in the
Grand Prix event(s) if they fulfil the requirements of the minimum score.

ETA: I also think they'll get two assignments especially because they are ahead of all the other US men (except Abbott/Rippon/Miner) on the SB list AND the World Standings.

Remember that the ISU World Standings should shift around a bit after the 2009-10 results are purged (although Brown has no points to lose from that season and Farris' ranking is not likely be affected much, if at all).

Here's what I posted in the 2012 Junior Worlds forum after the Men's FS:

Part of me feels that Jason Brown could stay down and do the JGP again, trying 3A in every program, knowing he could do well even if his 3A is inconsistent in competition at first?

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Last year's men's bronze medalist from Junior Worlds, Sweden's Alexander Majorov, only received 1 initial GP assignment. The U.S. men received 14 GP slots (including 2 for Lysacek as a "comeback skater") and who knows if Lysacek and/or Weir may return?

Last year's men's bronze medalist from Junior Worlds, Sweden's Alexander Majorov, only received 1 initial GP assignment. The U.S. men received 14 GP slots (including 2 for Lysacek as a "comeback skater") and who knows if Lysacek and/or Weir may return?

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I'd rather see Farris and Brown on the GP. Weir and Lysacek can save their posturing and play "pretend comeback" for an extra 15minutes of fame at Nationals.

Remember that the ISU World Standings should shift around a bit after the 2009-10 results are purged (although Brown has no points to lose from that season and Farris' ranking is not likely be affected much, if at all).

Here's what I posted in the 2012 Junior Worlds forum after the Men's FS:

Last year's men's bronze medalist from Junior Worlds, Sweden's Alexander Majorov, only received 1 initial GP assignment. The U.S. men received 14 GP slots (including 2 for Lysacek as a "comeback skater") and who knows if Lysacek and/or Weir may return?

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Do we know for a fact that Lysacek receive two GP assignments as a "comeback skater." IIRC, based on Lysacek's ISU ranking, he would have been eligible for 1 GP assignment. He was given an assignment to TEB. The USFSA gets to select it's participants at Skate America. Therefore, Lysacek could have received his 2 GP assignments last year (TEB & SA) w/o using the 'comeback skater' rule.

Do we know for a fact that Lysacek receive two GP assignments as a "comeback skater."

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I don't know for a fact.

From the 2011-12 ISU Grand Prix Announcement document:

c) &#8220;Come-Back&#8221; Skaters/Couples: Skaters/Couples who were previously seeded (placed 1 to 6 at any previous ISU World Figure Skating Championships) and subsequently did not participate in one or more competitive seasons are allowed to re-enter the Grand Prix if they commit to participating in 2 Grand Prix events. A come-back under this clause is allowed only once for any skater. Subsequent to the come-back season, the skater will be considered only by his/her placement on the official lists (seeded or World Standing points, etc.). If the skater is no longer on the list, he/she will not be considered for a Grand Prix event.

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In any case, Lysacek will have not an ISU World ranking after his 2009-10 season points are purged at the end of this season (he's ranked #28 now), and so Skate America as a host pick would appear to be his only option if he wants to compete on the Grand Prix. But considering the history of the ISU's fuzzy language in such documents, who knows?

In any case, Lysacek will have not an ISU World ranking after his 2009-10 season points are purged at the end of this season (he's ranked #28 now), and so Skate America as a host pick would appear to be his only option if he wants to compete on the Grand Prix. But considering the history of the ISU's fuzzy language in such documents, who knows?

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Based on my reading of the rule, Lysacek would be eligible for 2 GP assignments. He was World Champion in 2009 & Olymic Champion in 2010. He did not compete for two seasons. Lysacek was assigned 2 GP events last year; however, he did NOT compete. The rule states that "subsequent" to the comeback season, the skater will receive GP assignments based on the official list (seeding/ ranking). Since Lysacek did not compete last year, the provision of the rule applicable to GP assignments after the comeback season do not apply.

realistically, I see the us pairs and ice dance in juniors to stay in JGP
Gold will be moving seniors like Zawadski. A good advantage for the judges to get more familiar with her for 2014

Brown can go to senior GP also as he can medal but Farris will probably stay in JGP , Farris is a bit lower compared to Brown's development , he still needs to catch up with Brown in terms of artistry and finesse and doesn't yet have the all around skating skills.