Time is running out for Chase hopefuls

BRISTOL, Tenn. – Just like that, the Chase for the Sprint Cup points race isn't much of a race at all.

With just two events remaining until NASCAR's 16-driver playoff field is set – next Sunday at Atlanta Motor Speedway and Sept. 6 at Richmond International Raceway – there isn't much drama for the four available spots currently based on points.

Greg Biffle holds the 16th and final position, a healthy 26 points ahead of Kyle Larson and 33 ahead of Kasey Kahne. Each point represents one spot on the track.

What is the most feasible way for drivers like Larson, Kahne, Austin Dillon or Paul Menard to make the Chase now? Win one of the next two races.

Points racing might be off the table, which is what NASCAR promised when it instituted a new playoff qualifying format at the beginning of the season that gave more weight to victories. But this is likely not quite what officials had in mind.

The focus for most of the season has been on the weekly winners instead of points. Richmond – the site of a points-manipulation scandal that rocked the sport last year -- promised to highlight both. With 16 spots available and only 12 different winners so far, there will be between two and four positions available for winless drivers who can qualify on points.

But after Saturday night's race, it's not shaping up to be much of a contest.

Matt Kenseth holds the first non-winner position, 83 points inside the current Chase cutoff. Ryan Newman is 42 points ahead of the cutoff. So barring a meltdown in the final two weeks from Biffle or Clint Bowyer (31 points ahead of Larson), Richmond might be a win-or-go-home race for every driver in the top 30 not currently in the Chase.

At least that would make things pretty simple in a somewhat convoluted system.

It certainly looked as if the scenario would be quite different halfway through Saturday night's race.

There was Kahne, who entered Bristol nine points out of a Chase spot, leading the race and looking for his first win of the year. But then he had to pit with a loose wheel – yet another costly mistake by his team in a year full of errors – and his night was effectively ruined (he later had to go behind the wall and finished 35th).

This season has been a disaster for Kahne, who has watched his three Hendrick Motorsports teammates -- Jeff Gordon, Jimmie Johnson and Dale Earnhardt Jr. -- win three times each while he remains winless.

There was Jamie McMurray, who had fallen out of points contention but was suddenly leading laps (he notched a career-high 148). A win would have punched his Chase ticket and helped others.

Instead, his car got too tight with 100 laps to go and he faded to eighth.

And how about Dillon? Before Bristol, the rookie was 22 points out of a Chase berth – even ahead of Larson, who has come much closer to winning among the rookies. Larson has five top-five finishes; Dillon has one). But Dillon had a bad night from the start and finished seven laps down in 28th place. He's now 40 points behind Biffle and 45 behind Bowyer.

Larson salvaged a 12th-place finish at Bristol, but Biffle's 10th-place finish means he lost a little more ground – something he couldn't afford to do after a last-place finish at Michigan International Raceway.

A surprise winner at the worn-out 1.5-mile track would leave only three spots available for points racers heading into Richmond, bumping the cutoff line up further. But intermediate tracks like Atlanta tend to favor the best teams -- and that means an upset is unlikely.

If Kahne doesn't win, he'd be one of the biggest names to miss the Chase.

Tony Stewart -- who has missed the last three races since the death of Kevin Ward Jr. -- would need to return, win and get a waiver from NASCAR to be eligible (drivers must at least attempt to qualify each weekend).

Among other drivers from big teams who could miss the Chase: Michael Waltrip Racing's Brian Vickers, Stewart-Haas Racing's Danica Patrick and boyfriend Ricky Stenhouse Jr. of Roush Fenway Racing. Furniture Row Racing's Martin Truex Jr. also needs a win if the No. 78 car is to make the Chase in consecutive years (the team did it last year with Kurt Busch).