Three situations where my thoughts differ from what I am seeing elsewhere

Tonight starts one of the best runs of hockey during the off-season. On Wednesday night, the Carolina Hurricanes prospects take to the ice for the on-ice start of the team’s prospect camp. Practices on Wednesday and Thursday night at 5:30pm are free to attend as is a 12pm scrimmage on Saturday that wraps up a full morning of events.

Today’s Daily Cup of Joe will go a different direction. On June 15, I wrote an article entitled,“Things I seem to like more/less than most…” Today’s Daily Cup of Joe in a similar vein identifies three areas where my opinion differs significantly from what I see elsewhere either on social media for the Hurricanes fan base or in the broader NHL media.

Eddie Lack

I am on record back April (before the Scott Darling trade) as thinking that Eddie Lack would be gone before the start of the 2017-18 season. I stand by that but think I differ from many’s opinion in a few significant ways.

Trade potential for Eddie Lack: Unlike some, I do not think Lack has any trade value right now. He had a tough 2016-17 season in total following a 2015-16 season that was even rougher. Sure there is a chance that he rebounds, but I think there is no way that a team will bet $3 million (Lack’s 2017-18 salary) and a roster spot on an Eddie Lack rebound. For a lower price, a team could have its pick of multiple better options.

Viability of using Eddie Lack for #3 depth in the AHL: As much as it would be nice to have Lack as an emergency #3 in Charlotte, I do not see Francis going this route. The cost to keep Lack versus buying him out is $1 million ($3 million 2017-18 salary – 2 X $1 million to buy him out). Even teams with maximum budgets do not invest that kind of money in AHL-level depth. My bet is that Francis will look to find veteran AHL-level depth ideally with some NHL experience, but only after Lack is bought out and only on a two-way contract that pays a normal AHL salary for time in the AHL.

The Las Vegas wild card: I do think there is one wild card in this scenario. Might it be possible for Francis to pawn Lack off on Las Vegas. I could see a bigger deal that sees the Hurricanes net a roster player, make Lack part of the deal and then pay more in terms of futures to make the deal happen. I am on record as not being a huge fan of adding a pure finisher, but if the price continues to be too high for top targets like Matt Duchene or Alex Galchenyuk, maybe Francis settles for a decent short-term plan B in Neal especially if he can recoup some of Neal’s salary by packaging Lack in the deal.

The Carolina Hurricanes salary cap situation

In broader media, I have seen some mention of the Hurricanes needing to do something specifically to make the salary cap floor. While it is true that the Hurricanes are under the $55.4 million cap floor right now, the team is basically on target to make the floor without doing much other than filling out the roster.

Per CapFriendly, right now the Hurricanes still need to add $4.7 million. But the team has only nine players under contract at the NHL level. If you assume a roster of 13 and an average salary of only $1 million per player, the Hurricanes are only about $700,000 short. Even if the Hurricanes somehow traded Eddie Lack, the shortage would be about $3.7 million. That worst case scenario would force Hurricanes to add a lone $5 million player to go with three other $1 million players to make the cap floor.

So yes the Hurricanes are under the cap floor currently, but reaching it will require only a tiny bit more than just filling out the roster.

Grading Ron Francis

Especially locally and on social media, I see a high volume of people assessing Ron Francis’ efforts and results for building the 2017-18 roster.

With nearly three months until the start of training camp, it is WAY premature. No doubt, one big potential deal weekend passed last weekend and along the way Francis spent some of his trade assets by instead adding to his prospect pool. In terms of measuring Francis’ new progress toward improving the Hurricanes’ 2017-18 roster, the draft weekend was uneventful.

But Francis has made significant progress adding goalie Scott Darling and smaller progress emerging from the expansion draft with Lee Stempniak still in tow and also adding blue line depth in Trevor van Riemsdyk. He also avoided doing any desperation deals that were unwise.

But most significantly, Francis still has a ton of time and a number of options to upgrade his forward ranks. It is not as if the top forward targets moved over the draft weekend. They did not; those players are still available. And a whole new avenue to upgrade the roster is set to open up on Saturday when free agency starts.

So while I do think Francis still has work to do, it is not time to grade his work building the 2017-18 roster.

What say you Hurricane fans?

For what things do your views differ from what you are seeing elsewhere right now?

Do you agree with my assessment of the three situations above or not?

Go Canes!

15 Comments

puckgod
on June 28, 2017 at 1:29 am

Yeah, it’s early to make ANY assumptions… most of us don’t have a grasp of our options, nor do we agree on the proper projections…
I feel the mgmt…ie. RF HAS LITTLE GRASP OF Competing for needed personnel to get the job done! The Canes really have to upgrade the offence… I’m not sure RF will recognize the absolute NEED to select a DIFFERENCE-MAKER… His reluctance to initiate a major MOVE… SEEMS TO BE A CHARACTER FLAW…to me.. and dooms the team to mediocrity… Unfortunately, the result of his inaction… could be catastrophic to the existence of this team in Raleigh… Quebec…may be the beneficiary…me thinks!

My differing view (I am not totally alone in that dmiller and one or two other C&C regulars have expressed similar views) is that Carolina does not necessarily need a center. The team does need additional scoring, but I think those are different issues for the following reasons:
1) J. Staal is legitimately a 1C by every metric other than points, while this sounds contradictory it is not. A 1C should make his team better when on the ice, by every metric INCLUDING expected goal differential J Staal makes the Canes better.
2) Adding a 1C or even 2C with a long-term deal would mean a) not using Aho at C; or b) moving Rask; or c) not having a spot for the prospects who might be NHL ready in the next two years–Wallmark, Roy, Kuokkanen. And while b) might hold some appeal, the reality is that Rask is signed for a reasonable salary and still has potential to consistently produce 50-55 points every year. As far as a)–I think Aho at C will produce numbers very close to Draisaitl once he is a regular C.
3) The options this year are serviceable with Staal at 1, Rask at 2, Teravainen at 3 (with Ryan at RW but available for crucial face-offs, and Wallmark at 4. There is also the outside chance that Roy or Kuokkanen move up during the season.
So overall, while C is not a strength starting the season, it is not the glaring whole that others think. This is especially true if Carolina adds a goal-scoring winger.

I remain ambivalent about Lack. All of Matt’s arguments make perfect sense. However, those arguing to keep Lack and have him start in Charlotte make reasonable points. Plus there is the potential that Lack finds his old form and has significant trade value if a starter on another team sustains an injury. So the gamble is paying the full $3M this year (when the Cap number and actual roster cost are manageable) versus paying $1M next year for air when an extra draft pick might have been produced. It is a gamble–not sure if even the analytics folks can put % around which makes more sense.

1. On Lack I disagree. Don’t use a buy-out to save 1 million when you can put on waivers, and if not picked up, put in Charlotte. Upside could be he plays well in Charlotte and you can trade for a draft pick of some sort.
2. I see no salary cap problems for the Canes. Not even an issue for me.
3. RF has a B rating going right now with me. Trouble with that is we need it to be an A if we are to be in the playoff hunt this year. A trade for Neal would be most welcome in the absence of any other better move.

Re: puckgod’s comments: I just hope he is wrong in his assessment. If RF doesn’t make a deal for some scoring help, then I sure hope he (RF) knows something we all don’t about one or more of our prospects becoming a new Aho THIS YEAR. My opinion is Justin Williams is the best bet right now. He only cost money and is a proven offensive force.

Re: ctcaniac’s comments: What’s to argue with. Good analysis. Seems well thought out. How nothing to quibble with him on.

Just read on TSN (Custance) that Candes amongst teams seeking Patrick Marleu who played for San Jose last year and scored 27 goals. He’s old, but maybe a good fit. On same site they report Justin Williams will take less term and dollars to go to a cup contender. Does that rule him out for the Canes?

Marleau has played for only one team in his career, and I don’t see any scenario where he’ll leave that team – a perennial play-off participant – and come to a team (on the “other” coast) that hasn’t made the playoffs in eight years. Regarding Justin Williams, I cannot believe he has been able to continue to play at a pretty high level given his significant injuries he incurred early in his career. People tend to forget he was given up for dead after a couple of pretty serious injuries and surgeries and somehow survived and eventually turned into the playoff lucky charm he is now. The guy just keeps on chugging along and he would be a nice pick-up if the situation presented itself. However, I believe there are a number of teams that will give him a 3 year deal and are significantly more Cup-ready than the Canes.

Lack: His trade value is less than you described. Every GM knows Lack goes, Ward stays. When everyone knows a player will be available post buy out, or, on waivers trade value disappears unless there is competition for his services. In Eddie’s case there will be no competition.
Cap Floor: Total non-issue. We went through the same discussion last summer. It will interesting to watch how this fan base reacts next season as ELCs begin to expire and staying under the cap will be the RFs most pressing issue. Will folks understand then his reluctance today to go long term, big money to make a “splash”?
RF: Only one grade applicable; incomplete. Any grade attempted today is just an interim grade pending rebuild completion. Eric Tulsky probably will need a grade then too.

1/ I counseled for patience before the Entry Draft and I’m sticking with that. Yes, that window closed without a major trade and we weren’t able to parlay our pick in this draft, but the players we’re targeting are still in play. For example, I hear plenty of rumblings about the job Joe Sakic is (or is not) doing as GM in COL. There will be more trades this offseason; there have to be.

2/ As for Eddie Lack, I don’t see a deal with Vegas happening, especially for James Neal, but I do agree that he has very low/negligible trade value, unless (i) we instead do some sort of a Bickell/TT trade except we’re CHI (with Lack and [insert prospect] for a player on another team) or (ii) we make a trade with a team that has a Forward with an inflated short-term contract and that needs a backup goalie (I couldn’t find one). Actually, if anything, Cam Ward has more trade value and I see that as more likely, especially if we found him a home on a contender. I may be in the minority here, but I’d be fine keeping Lack and trading Ward if it came to that to make more salary room available at Forward.

3/ puckgod, I just don’t agree with you. RF has done exactly what he said he was going to do: build this team to win consistently over the long-term. This team is light-years ahead of where it was when he took over, and his performance this year, while incomplete, is right in line with his stated objectives. I think we would all like to see an elite, difference-making forward on the team, but I am in no hurry to add him if it means we overpay and sacrifice the future; that’s kind of what JR did to us between ’09-’13 and look how well that worked out.

4/ I am on record as saying we need a “finisher” as much as a 1C and believe that adding one will make a noticeable and incremental difference, especially if on a line with Lindholm or Aho, who have both proved to me that they can be high-level/elite playmakers. I realize that BP’s preference is to let them both marinate on the Wing at least another year, but circumstances may not play out that way if we can’t get an upgrade at Center through a trade (it’s not going to be through the UFA market), and that’s not going to happen if one of our Core-4 is required.

Justin Williams is an obvious UFA candidate, but I think he’s a long shot (even with his CAR history) mostly because he’s in end-of-career-chase-the-Cup mode and is going to wind up on a team closer than we are. When you expand the list of Finishers to include trade targets and not just UFA’s, there are quite a few options out there that wouldn’t cost a Core-4.

5/ I would love to get Marleau. He’s got a lot of miles on him, but he’s still very productive and hasn’t missed a game since ’08. If he doesn’t accept a discount to go to a Contender or stay in SJO, the way I’d consider trying to win that deal is to offer him 3-yrs rather than 2-yrs. I would rather bet on his durability/longevity than overpay for Duchene in a trade.

6/ We are not overstocked with futures anymore. Yes, we have a nice supply of prospects now, but at this point we don’t have any more drafts picks than anyone else. Spending futures now means depleting our drafting ability later. The premium on being “right” in a deal for a difference-maker just went up. We’re now in the situation where our prospects have to develop into NHL players worth being on any team if they have any value. Like drafting in general, I think it’s a crapshoot as to what happens.

7/ I’m disappointed we haven’t put a checkmark by our 2nd highest priority yet, but I am highly confident that we will add more offense this offseason. Again, it may not be McKinnon or Galchenyuk (or Nylander or Horvat or Granlund – I can dream) but it will be someone at least as good as Stempniak that will move the needle forward.

I concur with your comments on Ward having higher market value than Lack. I am also enough of a realist to understand and accept Cam will get favorite son status as long as he has a contract here. Ward will get ever possible chance to establish himself as a dependable back up and get close to 30 games a year in the process. If he does that successfully he can expect to stay in a back up role here as long as he is physically able. Again, not my first wish but my every expectation.
As to the forward situation, I’d be happy with the addition of one or two mouth breathing, knuckle dragging universally hated despicable forwards with a modicum of skill hired to change how teams match up against us. That would be as much a game changer as the always wished for, unicorn like perfect !C.

If Eddie Lack gets moved, it almost certainly is part of a larger deal. There are a couple of teams looking for a viable #2 (Winnipeg). Finishing matters and despite getting hurt, Lack had a nice run at the end of the season. GMs will remember that. That said, his value only exists to a few teams and/or as part of a larger deal. The #3/waiver wire thing looms large.

PDG and McGinn already add about $2 million. Fleury’s salary adds another $860,000. That gets the Canes to right about $53 million with 4 forwards left to sign. It is a non-issue. However, if GMRF wants to vulture a player from a cap-strapped team, then he’s going to need to do this earlier in the process (either prior to or shortly after UFA begins).

I’m part of the group that is satisfied with what Ronnie has done and realize that we are just embarking on year 4 of a 5 year rebuild plan.

Draisaitl played wing on McDavid’s wing 70% of the time. Hence his scoring.

A little clarification on my views…
Eight years ago, I’d have agreed with all the “be patient” da da da da things are looking better etc.
I’m getting older and it’s getting harder to EVEN REMEMBER what the Canes in a playoff game looks like!
I hate the excuse for not doing anything…that we want to be able to win consistently…! Well guys, to that I say…you have to win once, before you can repeat! The only repeating this team has done… is lose, lose, lose!
Incomplete is one way to evaluate RF, but based on the results (we failed to make the playoffs every year he’s been in charge) or LACK THEREOF, “F” is the only accurate grade appropriate!
I’m a little surprised that most of you can tolerate failure THIS LONG.
Based on attendance at the Arena last year, it seems many may agree with my discouragement… and more losing will escalate the discontent. I really don’t want that…but inaction and excuses have reached a NEAR-BRAKING POINT.

puckgod, my rating is just for this off-season. He doesn’t add a finisher this off-season we stand a good chance of flushing another season down the toilet IMO. Most of us share your disappointment with how things have gone for the past several years. We also have no choice other than to be optimistic that RF will do what is necessary to remedy things THIS YEAR. As you point out and I think it is the belief of most of us contributors, there’s very little tolerance left for inaction or excuses. Most of us feel we have a solid core lacking one component and that is another bonafide first line scoring forward. As dmiller would suggest, be patient for the next couple of months and let’s see what Ronnie Franchise can do. Actually, we have no alternative. You keep writing though because it does keep in perspective the necessity for RF to do what is necessary NOW (this off-season).

puckgod, like RedRyder is saying, I don’t have a lot of tolerance left for inaction either, but I maintain my optimism that RF will continue to improve the team as he has done over the past few years. What other choice is there other than to maintain hope? Let’s see what the next few weeks bring.

This is the perfect time to add a high priced UFA, especially on a one-year deal. The Canes will be close to the salary cap floor (a situation that will change drastically next summer), they have to reconnect with a frustrated fanbase, and they have to give the young defense core something to be excited about in Raleigh (excited enough to consider signing at some type of hometown discount).
This is the year to do it. If we try another year of best-team-per-dollar that ends up out of the playoffsand with a non-premium pick (In the 10 to 14 range), I think the RF belief will be gone, and quite possibly the team as well.
Of course the question remains whether we have any quality UFAs with interest, but I really hope the Canes will pull some type of a deal to lure the fans back.

Checking in way after the fact (long day that barely wedged in prospect practice)…

Great to see another round of healthy debate with some agreement but equally importantly some differing views (expressed respectfully).

As breezy said, I think timing could be right for Francis to overpay a bit on the free agent market if he can get the right guy on a 1-year or possibly 2-year deal. He has budget short-term (especially 2017-18) but needs to reel some of that money back in soon for the wave of second contracts coming.

Neal (from Las Vegas not free agency) is somewhat interesting in that regard. He is signed only through 2017-18 which maybe is not a bad thing.