At midnight there were 6 spotted regions on the visible disk. A region behind the northeast limb has been fairly active and
should rotate into view this weekend. A total of 5 C class events were recorded during the
day.

Region 10195 developed slowly in the trailing spot section during the first half of the day, then decayed again and had
lost all the newly emerged spots by midnight.
Region 10197 was quiet and stable.
Region 10198 decayed slowly in the trailing spot section. M class flares are still possible. Flares: C1.0
at 02:18 and C3.4 at 15:42 UTC.
Region 10199 decayed and could become spotless today or tomorrow.
Region 10200 was quiet and stable.
Region 10201 developed quickly early in the day with many new spots emerging. Some of these spots had disappeared by the
end of the day.

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs)

November 20-22: No obviously geoeffective CMEs noted. A full halo CME observed on Nov.20 appears to have had a backside origin.

Coronal holes

An extension of the southern polar coronal hole will rotate into a geoeffective position on Nov.24.

Processed SOHO EIT 284 image at 19:06 UTC on November 22. The black areas on the solar disk are coronal holes.

Forecast

The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to minor storm on Nov.23 under
the influence of a coronal stream. Quiet to unsettled is expected for Nov.24-25. Long distance medium wave (AM) band propagation along
east-west paths over high and upper middle latitudes is very poor.

Coronal holes (1)

Coronal mass ejections (2)

M and X class flares (3)

1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth within the
next 5 days.
2) Material from a CME is likely to impact Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48
hours.

Composite image based on a SOHO/MDI continuum image and overlaid by a coronal hole image. Region numbering has been included.

Data for all numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by SEC/NOAA. Comments are my own, as is the
STAR spot count (spots observed at or just prior to midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SEC or where SEC has observed no spots.

Solar region

Date numbered

SEC
spot
count

STAR
spot
count

Location at midnight

Area

Classification

Comment

10194

2002.11.13

S17W77

plage

10195

2002.11.13

9

5

S17W37

0120

EAO

classification should
be DAO

10197

2002.11.14

1

2

N24W33

0360

HHX

classification was
EHO at midnight

10198

2002.11.15

35

24

S18W12

0500

FKI

beta-gamma

10199

2002.11.20

7

3

N27W14

0030

BXO

10200

2002.11.20

1

1

N00E44

0060

HSX

10201

2002.11.21

11

9

S16W22

0040

BXO

beta-gamma
classification was
DRO at midnight

S34

emerged on
2002.11.21

N14W83

plage

Total spot count:

64

44

SSN:

124

104

Monthly solar cycle data

Month

Average solar
flux at Earth

International sunspot number

Smoothed sunspot number

2000.04

184.2

125.5

120.8
cycle 23 sunspot max.

2000.07

202.3

170.1

119.8

2001.10

207.6

125.5

114.0 (-0.1)

2001.11

210.6

106.5

115.5 (+1.5)

2001.12

235.1

132.2

114.6 (-0.9)

2002.01

226.6

114.1

113.5 (-1.1)

2002.02

205.0

107.4

114.7 (+1.2)

2002.03

179.5

98.4

113.4 (-1.3)

2002.04

189.8

120.7

110.5 (-2.9)

2002.05

178.4

120.8

(109.0 predicted, -1-5)

2002.06

148.7

88.3

(107.0 predicted, -2.0)

2002.07

173.5

99.9

(103.6 predicted, -3.4)

2002.08

183.6

116.4

(100.2 predicted, -3.4)

2002.09

175.8

109.3

(96.4 predicted, -4.8)

2002.10

167.0

97.5

(92.3 predicted, -4.1)

2002.11

178.1 (1)

129.3 (2)

(87.0 predicted, -5.3)

1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UT observed solar flux value at 2800
MHz.
2) Unofficial, accumulated value based on the Boulder (SEC/NOAA) sunspot number. The official
international sunspot number is typically 25-45% less.

This report has been prepared by Jan
Alvestad. It is based partly on my own observations and interpretations, and
partly on data from sources noted in solar
links. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.