Monday, January 26, 2009

All of the upsets this past week led to big changes in the bracket. Numerous teams moved up or down at least two seed lines and not one team on the 6-9 lines from last week is still there. The biggest upward mover was Washington after their wins over USC and UCLA. These wins, along with sole possession of first place in the Pac-10, shot them from a 10 to a 6. The hottest team of the week was undoubtedly Virginia Tech after picking up wins at Wake Forest and Miami. This sent them from off the radar to a 9 seed. The biggest downward movers were Ohio State and Georgetown. The Buckeyes dropped two Big 10 games to fall below .500 in league play which dropped them from a 4 to a 8. The Hoyas also lost two games, including one to lowly Seton Hall, and fell from a 3 to a 6.

In choosing the final teams to make the field we started projecting ahead a bit more. The MWC still looks like a 2 bid league, so we kept BYU in the field since we think they are the second best team in the conference. Penn State had a nice two-win week, but we still had to leave them out of the field. They have picked up some nice wins in conference but they will need at least 10 Big Ten wins to have any chance at a bid since they have no OOC resume to speak of. With the schedule they have left, we just can't see them getting to 10-8 in conference, nevermind 11-7. Some may be surprised that we went with Wisconsin over the Nittany Lions. The Badgers have dropped four straight, but we think they will get this back on track and shouldn't have too much trouble getting to nine wins in conference, which would be enough for a bid given their solid RPI. We went with LSU as our last team in because we feel they have the best chance to win the SEC West which should mean an at-large bid. They have been dominant in their last 3 SEC games and there are plenty of easy W's for them to pick up the rest of the way. It will be tough for the committee to leave out an SEC team that wins 11 or 12 conference games.

20 comments:

Anonymous
said...

I love FSU, but I am deeply concerned about their games down the stretch. Their last 5 games is against VTech(twice), Duke, Clemson, and BC. They could feasibly finish 0-5 with these teams. At best, I see FSU going 3-2. I think we'll be another bubble team whose performance in the ACC tournament gets us in this season.

after watching them tonight, I really don't think Notre Dame is that bad considering how good the Big East is. They play solid, fundamental ball, but tire out by the end of the game due to a lack of bench. I see them emerging as an 8 or 9 seed that will either bow out in the first round, or make it to the sweet sixteen

where is Northeastern University? beat george Mason 59 rpi, and top 10 defense in country. they are in one of those mid-range conferences that need to be recognized along with VCU and Mason. BC and Notre Dame should NOT get in

ND has certainly struggled lately and will continue to fall down the bracket to a double digit seed (unless they can find a way to win at Pitt this weekend). Their recent losses have come to Big East powers so we have cut them some slack, but with 11-7 and 3-5 records they need to turn things around fast. Their schedule doesn't get any easier till mid-February and their biggest upcoming game is probably out at UCLA next weekend. The Bruins aren't the power that they have been the past few years but if the Irish can travel across country and pick up a W it would be huge. We still think the Irish will be ok come March since they have enough wins left on their Big East slate to reach 9-9, they will have some good wins on their resume, and they should have a good record over their last 10.

We considered Northeastern this week for the auto bid out of the Colonial, but instead went with preseason favorite VCU. The Rams seemed to have gotten things figured out after their rough start. The CAA will only be a one bid league this year and we think VCU is the favorite to win the conference tourney in their home city. The Northeastern @ VCU matchup is definetely a game to wathc for Tuesday.

"Will the Big East champion be protected - not face a conference opponent until a potential regional final?"

If there are 8 or less Big East teams, then yes. If there are 9 or more, then really all bets are off. They could face a conference opponent as early as the second round, and there is nothing that gives them special "protection" by being conference champion.

thanks for the feedback, the NEU vs. VCU game will be great and it is on ESPNU. is the colonial too small of conference where two teams can make it? VCU will most likely win the conference tourney, i agree with you on that point. but will George Mason and Northeastern be out of the discussion? And can that ever change so that more than one team can make it fro the CAA.

The Colonial isn't too small of a conference to get two bids, it just doesn't have a team this year with a resume worthy of an at-large bid. The league's best OOC win this season was Northeastern's victory at Providence on Nov. 15, which is impressive, but not something that's going to get the Huskies a bid.

The Colonial received two bids just two years ago, when VCU won the conference tournament and Old Dominion received an at-large. That ODU team finished 24-8 overall, 15-3 in conference, split with VCU, had a 40 RPI, and won at Georgetown early in the season. That same year (2007) was the year that the Colonial should have actually received three bids, but Drexel (who we had in our final Field of 65) got left out despite the fact they won at Syracuse and at Villanova. The Dragons lost in the Colonial semis to VCU, and finished the year a combined 0-4 against VCU and ODU.

You've got 10 bubble teams in your bracket. Eight (8) of them should be NIT or CBI participants. Below .500 BCSer's are not 'automatic' nor should they be at-large entries. The purpose of playing is to win, not politic our way to the post-season NCAA's.

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