Lance Zierlein

Evaluations

Discussing Elite Traits

One of the hardest concepts for draftniks and fans to grasp is the willingness of some NFL teams to bypass college production in favor of elite physical traits. Let’s not confuse this, however. Teams generally draft players based off of good tape and the subsequent production from that good tape.

Having said that, there are times when a GM has to swing for the fences and project what a player CAN be and not what he has been in college. Let’s take a look at some prospects who will be drafted on the merits of their elite physical traits and high-end potential rather than college tape.

To put this into perspective, Ansah’s 40 yard time was comparable to WR DeAndre Hopkins (4.57) while Ziggy’s shuttle time was faster (4.26-4.50) and his broad jump was longer (118”-112”).

Ansah’s raw athleticism and potential absolutely jumps off the field at you at times. There are other times he looks like he’s still trying to figure things out. He will jar opposing tackles with power and his closing burst to the quarterback is exceptional.

Ansah had only 4.5 sacks all season, but you are deluding yourself if you don’t think an NFL team inside the top 10 will take Ansah. The combination of size, speed and raw potential will be too much too pass on for a team hoping for the next Jason Pierre-Paul.

I had Dion Jordan as my #2 rated prospect before the Combine and I took some mild flak for it based on his college production, but I’ve been around enough NFL people over the years to know what they are looking for and Dion Jordan is what they are looking for.

Jordan posted the top numbers for all defensive ends in the 40, the broad jump and the 20 yard shuttle. He has length, speed, quickness and the broad jump shows a level of explosiveness. On the field, his sack output was low (5), but he was asked to multi-task and didn’t finish most of the games early in the season due to Oregon blowouts.

The measurables are off-the-chart, but he still has to prove that he can play football on the next level. Whether he succeeds or not, there is now question that his size/speed combination will have him off the board within the first five picks and possibly at #2.

Hunt’s overall combine numbers fall just short of J.J. Watt’s and are on par with Mario Williams’ in most categories. Watt was off the charts from a standpoint of size, strength and those traits were indicators of his future dominance.

Hunt has a long way to go before he is compared to J.J. Watt on the field, but as one evaluator told me at the Senior Bowl, “he’s going earlier than he should because he has the combination of size, quickness and strength that we all covet.”

Hunt is a former Track and Field star in both the discus and shot put so you know the raw strength and explosion is there, but I’m guessing that a team is willing to overlook his inconsistent tape for an opportunity to get a player with this kind of size.

Justin Hunter has a decent chance of being the first wide receiver taken in this draft and I feel fairly confident that he’ll be the first non-slot receiver (T. Austin) off the board. Why? He’s big, he can run and he #1 wide receiver explosiveness.

While Justin Hunter is lighter than both Andre Johnson and Julio Jones, he’s a shade taller. His 40 yard dash time was comparable to both players and his vertical leap and broad jump were slightly better than both players.

As a player, he clearly shows potentials, but drops the ball way too much. Johnson and Jones had outstanding college career which is why they went 3rd and 6th respectively. Hunter hasn’t done enough to warrant a pick inside the top 10 and many would argue against him in the first round, but his size/speed/explosiveness is going to get him drafted earlier than you think.

With the proliferation of fantasy football across the country, a greater number of football fans than ever before are involved with fantasy football drafts. Now all of us can be general managers.

Unless we are involved with a dynasty league, we are looking for success this year with every pick. We are looking for yards, catches and touchdowns right now. There is immediacy in a fantasy draft.

The NFL draft doesn't really work like that in most cases.

Maybe you're just a diehard fan and you live and die with each football season. Your season begins at the start of camp and runs all the way through the draft. You want your team to be great. Screw that. You NEED them to be great!

Why? Maybe you hate your job. Maybe you have a lousy marriage. Maybe your family situation is stressful or maybe times are tough for you financially. Regardless, your team is your escape and their success helps bring you happiness. Their failure brings you misery. There is immediacy in being a football fan.

The NFL draft generally doesn't offer the immediacy that fans are looking for.

The Search For Great Over Good

The good teams would rather take a player who will be great in three years rather than a player who will be good in one or two. Great players often generate great results and that is what all fans are looking for.

Addressing needs with players who can contribute quickly is certainly an important part of the draft process, but at what point does a team look to hit the home run rather than a single or a double?

Good general managers can find good players to help fill needs in rounds two through five, but a chance to get a great player is usually highest in the first round. Finding a great player is a combination of skill and luck, but it usually involves a certain set of elite physical traits.

Defining Elite Traits

Speed is probably the most universal trait that evaluators look for in a prospect with elite potential. Chris Johnson and Adrian Peterson wouldn't have posted 2,000 yard seasons without the speed to turn some average runs into big gains. Then again, Peterson is that rare running back with elite speed AND size.

Von Miller terrifies tackles and offensive line coaches due to his speed off the edge. Remember how shocked you were when the Seattle Seahawks drafted Bruce Irvin last year? Irvin's elite edge speed made him a target of not just Seattle but four other teams in the first round. Draftniks worried about Irvin's cursory pass rush moves and inability to play the run while all NFL teams focused on was his elite trait known as speed.

"Speed" is a relative term, of course. For lineman, speed is usually associated with quickness. Warren Sapp had elite quickness off the snap which allowed him to be as disruptive as he was.

Size is another universally coveted trait amongst general managers and coaches. I'm not saying that a player has to have 1111 freakish size to be great, but outstanding talent matched with elite size is always preferable.

Understand that "size" isn't just defined by simply height/weight. J.J. Watt has elite size. Size, in the case of Watt, isn't just the fact that he is 6'5 and 290 pounds. Watt has long arms and outstanding lean muscle mass. Watt is a "freak-daddy" as a physical specimen.

Mario Williams and Rob Gronkowski have elite size as does Haloti Ngata. They are simply bigger than what we're used to seeing from their position and they all feature either above average quickness or functional football strength for their size or position as well.

While size and speed are the most obvious traits teams look for in the search for high end talent, each position has specific physical traits that evaluators earmark. Here are a few examples.

Quarterbacks - Arm strength

Offensive Linemen - Arm length

Defensive Ends - Closing burst

Linebackers - Change of direction quickness

Wide Receivers - Vertical leap

Swinging For The Fences in 2013

One of the hardest concepts for draftniks and fans to grasp is the willingness of some NFL teams to bypass college production in favor of elite physical traits. Let’s not confuse this, however. Teams generally draft players based off of good tape and the subsequent production from that good tape.

Having said that, there are times when a GM has to swing for the fences and project what a player CAN be and not what he has been in college. Let’s take a look at some prospects who will be drafted on the merits of their elite physical traits and high-end potential rather than college tape.

To put this into perspective, Ansah’s 40 yard time was comparable to WR DeAndre Hopkins (4.57) while Ziggy’s shuttle time was faster (4.26-4.50) and his broad jump was longer (118”-112”).

Ansah’s raw athleticism and potential absolutely jumps off the field at you at times. There are other times he looks like he’s still trying to figure things out. He will jar opposing tackles with power and his closing burst to the quarterback is exceptional.

Ansah had only 4.5 sacks all season, but you are deluding yourself if you don’t think an NFL team inside the top 10 will take Ansah. The combination of size, speed and raw potential will be too much too pass on for a team hoping for the next Jason Pierre-Paul.

I had Dion Jordan as my #2 rated prospect before the Combine and I took some mild flak for it based on his college production, but I’ve been around enough NFL people over the years to know what they are looking for and Dion Jordan is what they are looking for.

Jordan posted the top numbers for all defensive ends in the 40, the broad jump and the 20 yard shuttle. He has length, speed, quickness and the broad jump shows a level of explosiveness. On the field, his sack output was low (5), but he was asked to multi-task and didn’t finish most of the games early in the season due to Oregon blowouts.

The measurables are off-the-chart, but he still has to prove that he can play football on the next level. Whether he succeeds or not, there is now question that his size/speed combination will have him off the board within the first five picks and possibly at #2.

Hunt’s overall combine numbers fall just short of J.J. Watt’s and are on par with Mario Williams’ in most categories. Watt was off the charts from a standpoint of size, strength and those traits were indicators of his future dominance.

Hunt has a long way to go before he is compared to J.J. Watt on the field, but as one evaluator told me at the Senior Bowl, “he’s going earlier than he should because he has the combination of size, quickness and strength that we all covet.”

Hunt is a former Track and Field star in both the discus and shot put so you know the raw strength and explosion is there, but I’m guessing that a team is willing to overlook his inconsistent tape for an opportunity to get a player with this kind of size.

Justin Hunter has a decent chance of being the first wide receiver taken in this draft and I feel fairly confident that he’ll be the first non-slot receiver (T. Austin) off the board. Why? He’s big, he can run and he #1 wide receiver explosiveness.

While Justin Hunter is lighter than both Andre Johnson and Julio Jones, he’s a shade taller. His 40 yard dash time was comparable to both players and his vertical leap and broad jump were slightly better than both players.

As a player, he clearly shows potentials, but drops the ball way too much. Johnson and Jones had outstanding college career which is why they went 3rd and 6th respectively. Hunter hasn’t done enough to warrant a pick inside the top 10 and many would argue against him in the first round, but his size/speed/explosiveness is going to get him drafted earlier than you think.