A tropical disturbance moving near the Bahamas today is showing increased storm activity.

The disturbance, noted by the National Hurricane Center, is encountering fairly high wind shear. However, many computer forecast models now indicate the system will develop into a subtropical or tropical storm and move northward close to, or inland into the Carolinas by the end of the work week.

Given the generally unfavorable conditions, it's likely this storm will not produce winds above 50 or 60 mph, and there is virtually no chance it will become a hurricane.

Nevertheless, the system could bring winds and heavy rains from northern Florida through the Carolinas during the second half of this week.

Is it rare to get a named tropical or subtropical storms in May?

According to Phil Klotzbach, of Colorado State, 23 tropical storms have formed in the Atlantic in May during the period of 1851 to 2014. The formation of a storm in May made little difference to the overall activity during a given season.