RHODRI Morgan stands at the threshold of majority government after an election victory that amounts to a huge personal triumph.

RHODRI Morgan stands at the threshold of majority government after an election victory that amounts to a huge personal triumph.

The First Minister is determined to have a Labour-only administration if humanly possible - and if members of his own group promise to give him their loyalty.

Having won only 30 of the 60 Assembly seats in an election where turnout was 8% down to 38%, and assuming that Lord Elis-Thomas or another opposition AM takes the non-voting role of Presiding Officer, Mr Morgan will have an effective majority of one over the combined members of the opposition.

With two seats more than the 28 won by Labour in 1999, Mr Morgan is in an immensely stronger position than his predecessor Alun Michael four years ago.

Mr Michael's hold on office was dependent on the whim of opposition AMs, of whom there were four more than the total held by Labour. When they turned against him over the issue of Objective One match funding he lost control and lost his job.

Mr Morgan will clearly not want to make himself potentially vulnerable in the same way, and with the tightness of his working majority will impress on Labour AMs the need for loyalty.

Given that several members of the "awkward squad", including Ron Davies, Tom Middlehurst and Dr John Marek, who won Wrexham as an independent, are no longer in the group, that should not prove insurmountably difficult.

Yesterday, however, Mr Morgan and his supporters were celebrating a victory that vindicated his decision to establish "clear red water" between his administration in Cardiff Bay and that of Tony Blair in Westminster.

After the 1999 election, when Mr Michael was portrayed as the poodle of Mr Blair, a revamping of Labour in Wales was undertaken to give the party a more distinctly Welsh dimension. In part this was to combat the appeal of Plaid Cymru as the only sizeable party based in Wales, but also to reflect the realities of devolution.

Explaining the appeal of Mr Morgan, his successor as MP for Cardiff West, Kevin Brennan, said, "After being defeated twice in Welsh lead-ership elections where Tony Blair campaigned for his opponent no one could accuse Rhodri of being a Blair poodle.

"He speaks forthrightly and occasionally more loosely than politicians are supposed to, but most people are actually quite happy about that. He is open, friendly and accessible and has no element of pomposity about him. And he represents Wales and Welshness in a way that adds to his appeal."

Mr Brennan's praise for his former boss is borne out by opinion polls that consistently give Mr Morgan a high approval rating. Two days before the election an NOP/HTV poll showed 65% of voters thought he was doing a good job.

Labour's campaign was therefore strongly personalised around Mr Morgan. If he had failed to improve on the party's performance in 1999 there would have been huge disappointment and he could well have been forced out as leader.

Labour also won because of factors like the hugely popular free bus-pass scheme for pensioners and its promises like free prescriptions and free breakfasts for primary-school children that played particularly well with low-income families in key target seats.

At a celebratory gathering Mr Morgan said he was delighted with the result.

Describing himself as Wales's "First Minister in waiting" he said he had spoken to the Prime Minister who was "absolutely thrilled" with Labour's performance in Wales.

Mr Morgan said, "I think the most important thing is that now Labour has the opportunity to put into practice in a way that we could not before the manifesto as we promised to the people of Wales."

Admitting that Labour was "mathematically short" of a majority, Mr Morgan said, "I do not realistically think that will hold us back.

"I do not really think we have to worry about the other parties. Our lead over them is so large because Wales has come back to Labour."

He refused to be drawn on whether he would seek to continue a coalition with the Liberal Democrats, saying he would consult widely and needed space to think.

Behind the scenes, many in the Labour group are putting pressure on Mr Morgan to ditch the Lib-Dems. The election campaign revealed the underlying resentment of many in the party at Lib-Dem claims to be responsible for the key achievements of the coalition administration.