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TC's 2013 Mock Offseason

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If you haven't been around long, then you probably don't know... I try to do one of these "offseason plans" at the end of each season. I usually do a mock free agency along with a mock draft based on the assumption that I get the guys I want in free agency.

A little about my philosophy: In free agency, I want younger talent. I'm looking for guys who are coming off their rookie contract or looking for their 3rd contract at the most... anyone older than 28 has to be a special talent with proven longevity, a good locker room presence, and willing to be a mentor.

In the draft, I use the first 2-4 rounds as an extension of free agency. Any holes I haven't plugged in free agency, I try to address in the first 3 rounds of the draft. After the 3rd round, I'm usually looking for the best player on the board... someone with raw ability who can be groomed to be a starter in the future.

So, let's get started.

The Chiefs have hired offense-minded Andy Reid as their new head coach. John Dorsey is their new General Manager and they've tagged Bob Sutton as their next DC. What we know from this group is that Reid likes an offense built around the pass and enjoys having mobile QBs. We know the Chiefs have a desperate need at the QB position and the #1 pick in the draft.

The scary hire was Bob Sutton. The Chiefs have spent a TON of resources building on the defensive side of the ball. Now, they've hired an offensive HC and a DC who didn't do too well as the DC for the Jets under Mangini. His schemes are bland, no blitzes, poorly designed, and never ranked higher than 16th overall. The Chiefs defense is a unit without a direction and being that Sutton has experience in the Tampa 2 4-3, the 2 gap 3-4, and now the 1 gap 3-4, he seems to be a Defensive Coordinator without a direction as well. This all leads me to believe there won't be too much attention given to the defensive side of the ball.

I COULD be wrong however because Andy Reid has a history of taking CBs and pass-rushing DEs in free agency and the draft. This could be a good thing considering Tyson Jackson is scheduled to make $14m in 2013 and is a prime target to be cut. The Chiefs also have a need at CB depth as well as at Safety. The Chiefs will also need at least one ILB and may also need to bring in another OLB depending on which defensive scheme they settle on. Glenn Dorsey is also scheduled to be an unrestricted free agent.

On the flip side, outside of the QB position, the Chiefs will also be looking at WRs with a decision needing to be made on Dwayne Bowe who's scheduled to be an UFA, evaluations needed on Breaston, Baldwin, McCluster, and the rest of the corp in order to effectively address the situation. There's also a decision that needs to be made in regards to Branden Albert who is scheduled to be an UFA as well. The offensive line has substantial depth, but letting Albert walk may require replacing him with a free agent or with the #1 overall pick. The loss of Ryan Lilja shouldn't do much to hurt the O-line, but the next man up needs to be backed up. The offensive line has always been a priority for Andy Reid and this year should be no different.

So, let's dive into the free agent pool. Top priority: QB
Not too many options here. With the Chiefs perhaps bringing in Sporano as the O-line coach, one has to wonder if Matt Moore gets a chance to come in and compete. Assuming Flacco doesn't hit the free agent market after taking his team to the AFC Championship (so far), the FA talent pool is MUCH shallower than the extremely shallow QB draft class.

Offensive Line: The Sporano connection rears its head again. The Chiefs have concerns about Branden Albert's back and what they can expect from him on a long-term deal. Ryan Clady will be the biggest name scheduled to be an UFA, but there's no way Manning allows one of the best pass protectors in the game to walk. The next big name on the list of UFAs is none other than former top pick by the Dolphins, Jake Long. Long also has injury concerns but may be enticed to come play in KC. Andy Levitre is the top OG scheduled to hit the free agent market. Contract talks have gone nowhere in the past between he and the Bills and may get the chance to hit the open market.

WRs: Greg Jennings, Dwayne Bowe, and Mike Wallace headline the WR crop this season. With the new offense being pass-heavy, I just don't see Reid allowing Bowe to walk. Bowe will be extended and Dorsey will reel in Greg Jennings. With Baldwin and Breaston filling out #3 and #4, the Chiefs will boast one of the best WR corps in the league and will provide the new QB plenty of weapons with which to destroy his opponent.

TEs: Jared Cook is one of, if not THE most athletic TEs in the league. He has almost ZERO interest in returning to Tennessee and with the new offense centered around the pass in KC, Cook could see this team as a very big opportunity for him to finally break out.

DL: The Chiefs DL will take a hit this year. Jackson will probably not be here. There's a good chance Dorsey won't have much interest in returning. The defensive side of the ball is going to be the hardest for us to fill out considering that I don't think the Chiefs staff has any idea what defense they want to run yet. I'm going to go out on a limb (where I'm sure I'll be all by myself) and say the Chiefs are going to run a 1-gap 3-4. I realize this is a defense Reid has never run. However, I think this is the defense that the Chiefs are currently best-suited for with Sutton seeing the success Ryan had with it in NY. If the Chiefs run this defense, they have Hali and Houston at DE and Poe inside with DJ at LB. That means they need 3 LBs to fill out the defense. So, there isn't too much need along the DL except for random depth which could be filled by the guys currently on the roster, with late picks in the draft, or free agents after the draft. This defense is the same ran in New York with the Giants AND Jets. Osi Umenyiora is a top pass rushing DE that may hit the FA market. He is 6'3 255 and runs a 4.7 40. Hali is 6'3 270 with a 4.7 40 and Houston is 6'3 258 with a 4.6 40. These guys can handle the position.

LBs: Anthony Spencer, Phillip Wheeler, Shaun Phillips, and Manny Lawson are the top names on the LB FA market. The Cowboys franchised Spencer last season and Phillips is 31. If they can get one of these guys, I think they'll be in good shape.

CBs: Chris Houston, Aqib Talib, Leodis McKelvin, Sean Smith, and Dominique Rogers-Cromartie are the top names of the CB FA class. Chris Houston would be my first choice. Talib will probably go back to NE after they win the Super Bowl. I could see this staff going after Rogers-Cromartie from Philly or maybe Sam Shields from Green Bay even though he'll be a RFA.

S: The Chiefs need a safety who's reliable to put next to Berry in the defensive backfield. Top names on the market are Jairus Byrd, Dashon Goldson, Kenny Phillips, William Moore, Pat Chung, and Loius Delmas. Reid isn't known for spending assets on safeties, so I wouldn't expect much from him at this position. Byrd would be a nice addition, but he'll cost a pretty penny.

The Chiefs replace Branden Albert with a less expensive upgrade in Luke Joekel. They get better value with this pick than if they had decided to take a QB #1 overall. Joekel fits into a line that boasts Jon Asamoah, Rodney Hudson, Andy Levitre, and Eric Winston with depth provided by in Stephenson and Allen.

2nd Round
ILB Alec Ogletree Georgia

Ogletree would look GREAT next to DJ inside. Ogletree is a DJ clone. Great sideline to sideline defender with elite speed. He may not be available here, but if he gets passed the Bengals, I think he'll slide. This pick helps with the LB overhaul done by the organization because of their shift from the 2-gap to a 1-gap 3-4.

3rd Round
3a. OLB Alex Okafor Texas
The Chiefs need one more LB for their overhaul and the OLB out of Texas was the lone bright spot on an underwhelming defense. If Okafor is still available in the 3rd, he could be a a steal for the Chiefs.

3b. (compensation for Carr) WR/QB Denard Robinson Michigan

There are worse things to draft late in the 3rd than a play-making athlete who has played the QB position. No one thought Russell Wilson could win the job at QB either.

4th Round *Traded

5th
DB Tyrann Mathieu

Off the field issues should not scare anyone away from top 5 talent in the 5th round. We need another play-maker in the secondary and you couldn't ask for a better one than the "Honey Badger" in the 5th round. (**may be worth a higher pick as we get closer to the draft)

6th Round
QB Logan Thomas Virginia Tech

I know... off the radar, right? Check this out: 6'6 240lb. Bigger than Big Ben, Joe Flacco, and Cam Newton. Newton runs a 4.58, Thomas a 4.67, and Ben a 4.78. Make no mistake, he's definitely a project. Ranked 108 in comp% and 8th in turnovers with a longer than you'd like throwing motion. He'll probably sit for a year or two to refine his craft before he truly competes to be the starter, but if he puts the pieces together, his talent could make him a star. There are worse ways to spend a 6th round pick.

I know it's probably not "big splash" approach to the QB position all of us want, but there's just no clear-cut answer for the Chiefs at #1 overall. There are injury questions about Albert and a VERY good LT option worth the #1 overall pick. Allowing Albert to walk clears up more space to sign some key free agents. If the Chiefs are able to turn a 4th round pick into two QBs who can come compete for the position, I think that's great value for that pick. Tyrod Taylor is a younger Mike Vick. If a mobile QB is what Reid wants, I think the better option is to go get a Tyrod Taylor or Pat White with a later round draft pick trade than wasting the first pick on Geno Smith. I think there's at LEAST an average, short-term solution in that group of QBs that could afford the Chiefs a different opportunity to fill the position long-term in the future.

Think about this for a second: Mike Vick, Tyrod Taylor, Geno Smith, Pat White, Josh Freeman, Jason Campbell, Logan Thomas, E.J. Manual, and Donovan McNabb could all be available to the Chiefs by way of draft, trade, or free agent signing this winter. All of them possess similar attributes. Think about what each of those QBs may cost compared to what they'd bring to the Chiefs and honestly assess which QB presents the greatest value. I'm sorry, but I look at that group of QBs and I just don't see one name that separates himself from the rest of the pack. So why would Geno Smith be worth the #1 overall pick when you could have any of the other guys for MUCH less.

I think that if Andy Reid decides that Cassel is the guy for this season, that the fans MAY give him the benefit of the doubt but will want to see some SERIOUS results in order to support another year in '14. Cassel DID have a really good season in NE and then another good year in '10. He may get another year of fan support if Reid can do a good job selling him to the fans.

I can agree with that. However with chip Kelly going to Philadelphia and the connections that the staff has to various QBs in the league we are all just guessing.

Hey I hope Geno just kicks total arse at the combine. I hope there is a clear cut number one. As of right now there isn't and if the draft were held today drafting the LT frees up a lot of cap space to go out and do different things.

Let me ask you this. In regards to Bowe, tag him and sign either mike Wallace or Greg Jennings and give up the Baldwin experiment or let Bowe go and get one of those two WRs?

We do have more questions than the QB. Andy Reid may

Personally, I think Bowe is a better WR than Jennings, who has been oft-injured the last 2 years. Jennings struggles to beat press coverage. I've watched him a lot (living in Wisconsin).

Mike Wallace is a great name, but a deep threat that doesn't really fit Andy Reid's WCO. Not saying he wouldn't be a great acquisition, just that he would be tough to justify over Bowe, especially given our QB situation. I mean, picture a scenario where Cassel throws a deep ball to Wallace...He'd probably have to come back 5 yards to get it.

I see in Bowe a Terrell Owens type WR just waiting to unleash. He had a 15 TD season in 2010! There is a short list of players that have ever done that. I don't doubt that he can go it again under Cassel...He did it once. But at some point, we all need to realize that D Bowe is a freak WR that would just beast under a good QB.

Originally Posted by texaschief

Just because the Philly fans didn't like the McNabb pick either does NOT mean Geno Smith is even REMOTELY comparable.

Fact: The new Chiefs GM says that the draft strategy he is going to incorporate here in KC is BPA.

Find me a GM that doesn't go by that philosophy, the guy who says "yeah we reach for players here and there." It's GM cliche. Their interpretation of BPA includes positional weights and team needs.

Originally Posted by texaschief

Fact: Geno Smith's player rank is currently sitting somewhere between 13 and 18 on average in the 2013 draft.

Fact: The difference between the value at pick #1 and pick #15 is practically an ENTIRE DRAFT'S worth of picks.

Fact: There's NOTHING Geno Smith can do between now and the draft that is going to vault him to the perceived BPA at #1 overall.

Small example, definitely not the rule...but the 2010 draft. Bradford #1, Jason Pierre-Paul #15. Huge difference in terms of impact? Not really. The Giants needed a pass rusher (they got a good one). The Rams needed a QB. You really think GMs put zero weight into positional need?

Originally Posted by texaschief

Therefore, the Chiefs would be INSANE to draft Geno Smith #1 overall. This is not difficult. If you paid attention in your economics course, you'd realize how HORRIBLE of a decision it would be to take Geno Smith at the #1 spot in the draft. It's the kind of move that could sink the franchise for another 7 years if not more.

Economics (which i did take) would view a product in terms of supply/demand. As your demand increases (every team wants a good QB) and supply remains unchanged, then you have a shortage, which leads to a higher price...well, right now there is a QB shortage. That makes a player like Geno (who is the best QB IMO) much more valuable to the Chiefs b/c of the lack of supply. At some point you can't just compare a QB and a LT and say "this player is absolutely better" if they're both top 10 picks. What makes that LT the "Best Player Available"? I mean seriously, how do you answer that question? In my opinion, you say "These are both outstanding players...we need a QB tho so that wins."

If QB demand were to decrease (to a hypothetical point where they were worth the same as punters), then there would be a surplus, and you could snag a decent QB in the late rounds.

So, you wanted to talk economics...that's as simple as I can put it. Supply/demand. If the best overall player in the Chiefs mind is a 3-4 OLB...you think there is a chance in hell they take him given they have Houston/Hali?

Please, open your eyes to the "BPA" lingo. It's what everyone says. And I agree with you...it is economics. You're just misunderstanding economics.

The "Best Player Available" lingo is used by everyone across the league. You're kidding yourself if they don't put positional needs Into their "best player" rankings. Please wake up to this. If you still want to debate economics...I'm ready. Explain to me how the Economics course you took justifies your position, please.

I'll just say this...let it be known that my worst nightmare is the Chiefs taking Joeckel and the Raiders taking Geno and Geno goes on to be the Geno I think he will (basically the Gannon situation multiplied by the fact that he'll be around for 10+ years. Please no.

I'll just say this...let it be known that my worst nightmare is the Chiefs taking Joeckel and the Raiders taking Geno and Geno goes on to be the Geno I think he will (basically the Gannon situation multiplied by the fact that he'll be around for 10+ years. Please no.

My worst fear as well. Of course, most on here think the Raiders are sold on Palmer, which is completely false seeing as they started Pryor in their final game of the season.

I think that if Andy Reid decides that Cassel is the guy for this season, that the fans MAY give him the benefit of the doubt but will want to see some SERIOUS results in order to support another year in '14. Cassel DID have a really good season in NE and then another good year in '10. He may get another year of fan support if Reid can do a good job selling him to the fans.

****This is NOT a Cassel endorsement!!!*****

Cassel had a miserable year last year, no doubt about that, however, I find myself hard pressed to blame all our ill fated, on field, difficulties on him.

Cassel had a miserable year last year, no doubt about that, however, I find myself hard pressed to blame all our ill fated, on field, difficulties on him.

Of course not, but even in a season where everything lines up perfectly, he's only good for about 11 wins maximum. Plus, he almost never beats good teams. Cassel simply can't get you to the SB, just not possible.

Of course not, but even in a season where everything lines up perfectly, he's only good for about 11 wins maximum. Plus, he almost never beats good teams. Cassel simply can't get you to the SB, just not possible.

Like I said earlier if we draft Geno I don't think he is ready to start the first game of the year to many things that need work like getting under center and learning how to make 3, 5 and 7 step drops, we may have to start a veteran QB and it might be Cassel if Reid thinks he can get the job done and then in the middle of the season or 2014 Geno might be ready to take over. Do you really think we are going to the SB next year.

Personally, I think Bowe is a better WR than Jennings, who has been oft-injured the last 2 years. Jennings struggles to beat press coverage. I've watched him a lot (living in Wisconsin).

Mike Wallace is a great name, but a deep threat that doesn't really fit Andy Reid's WCO. Not saying he wouldn't be a great acquisition, just that he would be tough to justify over Bowe, especially given our QB situation. I mean, picture a scenario where Cassel throws a deep ball to Wallace...He'd probably have to come back 5 yards to get it.

I see in Bowe a Terrell Owens type WR just waiting to unleash. He had a 15 TD season in 2010! There is a short list of players that have ever done that. I don't doubt that he can go it again under Cassel...He did it once. But at some point, we all need to realize that D Bowe is a freak WR that would just beast under a good QB.

I think Bowe has more talent then Jennings but Jennings has been more consistent then Bowe. I would love to get Jennings just because he's better then our number 2 him and Bowe Together would be pretty good.

I don't see Wallace getting away from the Steelers

Originally Posted by Ryfo18

Find me a GM that doesn't go by that philosophy, the guy who says "yeah we reach for players here and there." It's GM cliche. Their interpretation of BPA includes positional weights and team needs.

The "Best Player Available" lingo is used by everyone across the league. You're kidding yourself if they don't put positional needs Into their "best player" rankings. Please wake up to this. If you still want to debate economics...I'm ready. Explain to me how the Economics course you took justifies your position, please.

That's very true but our new GM has a track record of taking the BPA. Just look at all the WRs that the Packers have gotten. Just look at there QB Those were not needs at the time or at least the biggest need for them. They took them. It's one thing for a GM to say that it's anther when you have proven that's how you do things.

I don't think Positonal need will have 0 impact but I don't think it's going to play a huge factor in who we take.

I think Bowe has more talent then Jennings but Jennings has been more consistent then Bowe. I would love to get Jennings just because he's better then our number 2 him and Bowe Together would be pretty good.

I don't see Wallace getting away from the Steelers

Jennings has obviously been more consistent b/c of QB play. The Steelers have cap problems, it's pretty much a given that he won't be back.

Originally Posted by matthewschiefs

That's very true but our new GM has a track record of taking the BPA. Just look at all the WRs that the Packers have gotten. Just look at there QB Those were not needs at the time or at least the biggest need for them. They took them. It's one thing for a GM to say that it's anther when you have proven that's how you do things.

I don't think Positonal need will have 0 impact but I don't think it's going to play a huge factor in who we take.

Our current GM has had the QB situation solved for years w/ Favre/Rodgers. So of course they don't put extra weight at that position. It's not a need.