Good morning and welcome to the weekend. It is 23 degrees and cloudy here in Upstate NY. The logo is promising a temperature of 37 degrees later today and that will be the first above freezing mark in a while. It will feel like a heat wave. Well, the extra good news, today is the first day of the Yang Wooden Horse. According to what I read, we are in for a more promising period of time. Do you think we could use it? Yes we can and I'm banking on the wisdom of Asian astrology to lead us to a higher ground. At the minimum, it's an optimistic thought and that in itself can be helpful.

Wall Street is not as enthused about the first day of the Yang Wooden Horse. At 8:30 a.m. ET DOW futures are significantly lower and the price of oil per barrel is down. The market is poised to tank at the opening bell.

Nothing pops out in the linked article that indicates the why of the big drop this morning. One might postulate that this is a continuation of the economic problems affecting the developing countries and consequently the global economy in light of a tapering off of quantitative easing. On the other hand we are due for a market correction and is this it? Who knows.

Good morning. It is 2 degrees and clear here in Upstate NY. The early frigid temperatures remain even though the weather logos promise something a little warmer. We see that Atlanta was in a state of collapse all over a few inches of snow that quickly became a massive ice skating rink on all major and minor roads. Friends and friends of friends are saying things like spending 8 hours going just a few miles, many had it much worse. Is there anyone out there who is a fan of the traffic jam? I didn't think so. Curious that traffic jams as a result of political mischief or incompetence are in the forefront of the news recently. We can allow our politicians to make vicious policy choices that serve corporate interests all of the time and put hard working people in a state of compromise, but screw around with easy driving accessibility and you are cooked.

At 8:10 a.m. ET DOW futures are moderately higher and the price of oil per barrel is up. The market is poised to open higher but recent trends demonstrably accentuate the ephemeral nature of that statement.

Investors heard the bad news from the Fed yesterday - quantitative easing is coming to a slow and painful end. Peripheral developing markets have been hit especially hard by this reality and a sell off has ensued. Setting all of that aside for a moment, investors will be looking at more fourth quarter corporate reports today, actually a huge slew of them. In addition, we get another reading of the fourth quarter GDP and the weekly first time layoff numbers and we wonder how this can be since right about now everyone has lost their job...

Finally a word which completely encapsulates the FOX News/Denier cult in our country.

From Wikipedia -

Agnotology (formerly agnatology) is the study of culturally induced ignorance or doubt, particularly the publication of inaccurate or misleading scientific data. A prime example of the deliberate production of ignorance cited by Proctor is the tobacco industry's conspiracy to manufacture doubt about the cancer risks of tobacco use. Under the banner of science, the industry produced research about everything except tobacco hazards to exploit public uncertainty.

Good morning. It is 6 degrees and sunny here in Upstate NY. The frigid cold continues but with no wind and the sun out, being outside is doable. We are about to enter the year of the Yang Wood Horse. I am not a big astrology buff at all but I find this article to be pleasing and helpful - 2014 – The Year of the Yang Wood Horse. Check it out I encourage you to read it. It's very optimistic and explains a lot of the doldrums of the past 2 years. In fact according to the article the last 2 years were the hardest of a 60 year cycle.

At 8:30 a.m. ET futures are moderately lower and the price of oil per barrel is down. The market is poised to open lower.

Today is the big day. Investors expect to hear the Fed announce a further tapering of quantitative easing. Meanwhile the developing countries are responding to the eventual drying up of easy liquidity by raising their key interest rates. India has pushed the rate up to 8%. Imagine what that rate would due in the USA. This is allegedly a short term policy move to provoke a more disciplined approach to their economies. Investors are responding favorably to this move.

...expectations that the Federal Reserve will continue to reduce the pace of its monetary stimulus, which has supported the flow of cash into developing economies.The Federal Reserve will announce its latest policy moves at 2 p.m. ET.

Good morning. It is 6 degrees and sunny here in Upstate NY. Hey it might even get up to around 16 degrees later today. It's cold out there. February is right around the corner and as I've mentioned I like February, the month in my mind marks the noticeable return of daylight. Right now the return of daylight is picking up pace and in a few days we will be gaining 2 1/2 minutes of more sunlight per day. It sure beats seeing it dark out around 4:15 in the afternoon.

At 8:30 a.m. ET DOW futures are moderately higher and the price of oil per barrel is up. The market is poised to open higher.

I'm reading the fourth quarter reports of several major corporations this morning and the numbers are beating expectations. It's not the fourth quarter reports that's spooked the market, it's the likelihood that the Fed will continue tapering down quantitative easing in an announcement on Wednesday. As we are seeing this is resulting in fear surrounding the viability of the peripheral markets or emerging markets. Investors are selling off holdings from these countries and the indexes have been rattled. The global economy is going through a conniption and this just shows how powerful the Fed is.

Emerging markets have returned center stage over the past few days as protests and wild currency fluctuations led to a sweeping sell-off.The markets expect the Fed to announce a further cut to its bond-buying program Wednesday, which could prompt a withdrawal of cash from vulnerable emerging markets.

Good morning. It is 27 degrees and overcast here in Upstate NY. We might even break above freezing today for the first time in a while. Cold as it is in this area, the Midwest is experiencing extreme cold and that will hang around out there for a while. January is a tough month and I always look forward to February where the return of more daylight is very noticeable. We will be moving the clocks ahead on March 9th this year. That's a mere 5+ weeks away.

At 8:15 a.m. ET DOW futures are moderately higher and the price of oil per barrel is up. The market is poised to open higher.

After a blisteringly bad week, the market is presently set to begin on an up note. It's the tapering down of quantitative easing and how that will effect the global economy that has investors pushing a sell off. I can't explain this morning except that perhaps it has to do with strong corporate fourth quarter earnings. One gets the sense that there is pressure on the market to contract and pressure to preserve the high perch of the major indexes. At this moment the preservation pressure is stronger.

"The prospect of the end of cheap money in the west, with the certainty of the end of even cheaper money in China, is forcing up the cost of capital across the [emerging markets] asset class."...data on new home sales will be announced at 10 a.m. ET.

Personally I don't think it is within the makeup of the authoritarian personality to "get along". It's much more about hierarchy and control, not equality and openness. But kudos for suggesting there is a glimmer of potential.

Good morning. It is 2 degrees and at the moment sunny here in Upstate NY. Help, we are being held hostage by a frigid cold air mass and it doesn't want to go away. Saturday will be the "warmest" day of the week as the temp is expected to hit 25 degrees. Yeah it's winter. We are presently gaining about 2 minutes of daylight each day. There's something somewhat reconciling knowing that. The Sun's coming back and it's warming effect is little by little occurring.

At 8:25 a.m. ET futures are moderately down and the price of oil per barrel is down. The market is poised to open lower.

Investors have not been pleased with fourth quarter corporate reports. Even though the majority of reports have beat expectations, those that have not appear to control the direction of the market. Dare we say it but is the long expected correction here and upon us? Who knows. One thing we can say with some certainty is that it's been a poor week, the indexes are down, and today is shaping up to be more of the same. The good thing is we are into the weekend and we get time to relax and recharge.

Good morning. It is 2 degrees and overcast here in Upstate NY. It's looking pretty cold and gray out there. Ice crystalline patterns have formed on the windows, a sure sign of frigid temperatures and the 10 day forecast shows only a modest change if any. Time to hunker down, dress warmly, personally I prefer to hibernate. I had to walk into town last night for an appointment with the chiropractor. I must of had on at least 9 layers of clothing including the mandatory face mask. It did work it kept me warm. This is also the time when you get the water pipe freezes and all the mess that entails. One simple trick to avoid that especially if you live in a not so well insulated or pipe location designed house is to leave at least a small drip of cold water running on one faucet in the house. With the water moving, there is at least a minor reason for it to not freeze.

At 8:25 a.m. ET DOW futures are moderately lower and the price of oil per barrel is up. The market is poised to open lower.

So far investors have not found the right amount of fourth quarter corporate profitability to justify further gains in the recent bull market. On the other hand, it's still too early to make an overall generalization, this could and probably will change. Investors will also get a look at some economic news on employment and home sales so it could be a hopping day. Don't be surprised if we get another day of losses.

After last year's big rally, investors are looking for signs the economy will be strong enough to keep the bull market going.Asian markets notched sharp falls following a disappointing report on manufacturing activity in China.

One thing the GOP does very well is eat it's own. Christie's political blood is in the water and the battle is under way in the GOP over Christie's power. These guys want it for themselves. Christie is at war on two fronts, the Democrats who want him out, knocked down a peg, or maybe who want to find him criminally negligent, and Christie is at war with the GOP politicos who simply want his power for themselves and these guys smell an opening.

Good morning. It is -6 degrees and sunny here in Upstate NY. It is dangerously cold out there so bundle up and please stay warm. We will take the cold in exchange for the fact that we have completely missed the snowstorm that has blanketed directly south of us and all over the Northeast. In fact at the moment I would say there's only a 10% covering of snow here and there, most lawns are browned out grass now frozen solid. I purposefully turned on Rachel Maddow last night because I'm so into her coverage of Christie. Unfortunately she went into in-depth coverage of the other hot GOP scandal with Virginia's former governor under indictment. Bob McDonnell really knew how to milk his position of power. The material bribes and such that he accepted, err allegedly accepted, are ridiculous. I'm betting he goes off to prison.

At 8:25 a.m. ET futures are slightly lower and the price of oil per barrel is down. The market is poised to open in the mixed area.

Investors have been underwhelmed by corporate earnings reported so far. The DOW has dropped some and it is the continued reviewing of fourth quarter corporate earnings reports that will move the market today and into the near future. Still the prediction for overall corporate growth is slightly optimistic.

Good morning. It is 7 degrees and overcast here in Upstate NY. We are back to frigid temperatures, Winter is back with a vengeance. The long range forecast is not very optimistic either with the temperature pattern remaining for a while. I've been very interested in following Bridgegate and now Hobokengate. It's a remarkable study because it's pealing back the presentation layers of Christie's administration and revealing it's ugly inner child. At this point what we have is a lot of speculation from the media and a lot of defense from Christie's inner circle. It will be the results of the investigation that will present the facts meanwhile there is a battle underway to attempt to sway public opinion. We are innocent until proven guilty, yet Christie is allegedly taking hits in the opinion polls.

At 8:30 a.m. ET DOW futures are modestly higher and the price of oil per barrel is up. The market is poised to open higher.

We are in the corporate report earnings period and this morning there is a wave of optimism pushing the indexes. Investors expect to see profitability in this year and equities are expected to remain fluffy. Meanwhile Main Street is weighed down by poor job growth, poor jobs, burdensome medical expenses, poor retirement funding, miserly minimum wages, and all sorts of social distress in the form of miserable and overly expensive food, crappy cars, and politically induced traffic jams.

I have to admit I'm fascinated with all things Christie as he wades into the shark waters of his own creation. There's a little blood in the water and the scent and taste are attracting major attention.

What's the big deal. Conservatives in political office have gone on for decades about liberals etc etc. It's humorous to me to see conservatives get upset by something they do all day long. If you can't take what you give, then get out of the kitchen.

Saturday, January 18, 2014

How to be a Poet (to remind myself) by Wendell BerryMake a place to sit down.Sit down. Be quiet.You must depend uponaffection, reading, knowledge,skill-more of eachthan you have-inspirationwork, growing older, patience,for patience joins timeto eternity…Breathe with unconditional breaththe unconditioned air.Shun electric wire.Communicate slowly. Livea three-dimensional life;stay away from screens.Stay away from anythingthat obscures the place it is in.There are no unsacred places;there are only sacred placesand desecrated places.Accept what comes from silence.Make the best you can of it.Of the little words that comeout of the silence, like prayersprayed back to the one who prays,make a poem that does not disturbthe silence from which it came.

Good morning. It is 25 degrees and cloudy here in Upstate NY. The warmer period, and by that I mean temperatures in the high 30s and 40s is predicted to continue through the weekend, then it's back to freezing. Hey it's winter, but so far definitely another unusual one. We see that Christie is lawyering up to meet his Bridgegate inquisitors. It's like the sides are ready to do battle and are now bringing in supplies and fortifications with the battle about to begin. I don't think Christie gets out of it unscathed. Minimum he gets a strong finger shaken in his face along with a stern warning.

At 8:30 a.m. ET DOW futures are modestly higher and the price of oil per barrel is up. the market is poised to open higher.

According to the article, corporate fourth quarter results have been mixed and so the market has been up and down this week. Regardless the DOW is in a fluffy position perched over 16,000. It's a wait and see situation with investors reacting to the parsed reports as they come through and eventually all will settle down on a clearer dynamic trend. I seem to recall the predictions that 2014 would continue with modest growth. So far this is true.

Good morning. It is 30 degrees and lightly snowing here in Upstate NY. We got a dusting of snow overnight and for the time being everything is back to white. The weather logos predict it will get warmer and sunnier. We shall see. I thought it was interesting that a new poll shows Hillary extending her lead over Christie in light of Bridgegate. Without perusing the details I would suspect that this is about a shift in the thinking of the independent voters. It will be fascinating to see how Christie skates through his self created mess.

At 8:30 a.m. DOW futures are slightly lower and the price of oil per barrel is up. The market is poised to open flat.

Investors are parsing their way through fourth quarter reports. That's probably the main thrust of the market at the moment although significant economic reports will also be a factor. Today they get numbers on inflation and that has been remarkably low and consistent. This is connected to quantitative easing which is designed to ease credit and thereby stimulate economic activity, and it's also due to the very low Federal Reserve Interest Rate.

"Ultimately all the practices I have mentioned are simply ways we can go about dissolving these barriers. Whether it’s learning to be present through sitting meditation, acknowledging shenpa, or practicing patience, these are methods for dissolving the protective walls that we automatically put up.When we’re putting up the barriers and the sense of “me” as separate from “you” gets stronger, right there in the midst of difficulty and pain, the whole thing could turn around simply by not erecting barriers; simply by staying open to the difficulty, to the feelings that you’re going through; simply by not talking to ourselves about what’s happening. That is a revolutionary step. Becoming intimate with pain is the key to changing at the core of our being—staying open to everything we experience, letting the sharpness of difficult times pierce us to the heart, letting these times open us, humble us, and make us wiser and more brave." - Pema Chodron.

Good morning. It is 32 degrees and cloudy here in Upstate NY. Temperatures in the 40s are the present trend but as always we are experiencing a lot of gray. It gets gray outside through the winter in this area, a day of sunshine is always very welcome. Maybe we'll get one sometime soon.

At 8:15 a.m. ET futures are modestly higher and the price of oil per barrel is up. The market is poised to open higher.

On Monday we read that there was deep concern about the quality of fourth quarter earnings reports and the market went through a strong sell off. Today the articles point to optimism concerning fourth quarter reports based on data from a few TBTF banks released on Tuesday. So, right now the emotion is positive and emotion carries a lot of sway. We could see more of this see saw or not, it's impossible to predict as the market reacts literally moment to moment over these reports.

Kindness in words creates confidence. Kindness in thinking creates profoundness. Kindness in giving creates love. Lao TzuIf you have no confidence in self, you are twice defeated in the race of life. Marcus GarveyThe man of genius inspires us with a boundless confidence in our own powers. Ralph Waldo EmersonThe most fundamental aggression to ourselves, the most fundamental harm we can do to ourselves, is to remain ignorant by not having the courage and the respect to look at ourselves honestly and gently. Pema Chödrön

Good morning. It is 46 degrees and lightly raining here in Upstate NY. We are having a snap in the super cold of January. The lawns are looking more and more clear of snow in my neighborhood, most are 98% snow free. It's just the big piles at the end of driveways that remain. I have not heard Maddow's take on Christie-gate and I'm looking forward to that this afternoon. There's a Democratic charge to go after Christie, can he withstand the political battle or will he become it's casualty. I suspect most people think he's right in the center of it, that it's all about his decisions not some underlings.

At 8:25 a.m. ET DOW futures are modestly up and the price of oil per barrel is up. The market is poised to open slightly higher.

Investors are wondering if they can justify further gains with the upcoming slew of corporate fourth quarter reports coming their way. Nothing new here really this is pretty much how it always is at the beginning of earnings report season. However some of the fears come from preliminary talk. So, let's see what happens. Personally I believe that Wall Street and Main Street are partly disconnected as it were. Ordinary people have not advanced their incomes through this long ongoing bull market. However I don't believe the opposite is true. That would be that Main Street remains disconnected from Wall Street when the market turns down. Main Street might not gain in a bull market but it definitely loses in a bear market.

"It can ... be helpful to shift our focus and look at how we put up barriers. In these moments we can observe how we withdraw and become self-absorbed. We become dry, sour, afraid; we crumble, or harden out of fear that more pain is coming. In some old familiar way, we automatically erect a protective shield and our self-centeredness intensifies. But this is the very same moment when we could do something different. Right on the spot, through practice, we can get very familiar with the barriers that we put up around our hearts and around our whole being. We can become intimate with just how we hide out, doze off, freeze up. And that intimacy, coming to know these barriers so well, is what begins to dismantle them. Amazingly, when we give them our full attention they start to fall apart." - Pema Chodron.

Is it just me or does Christie's newest problem described below when matched with bridge-gate add up to someone with a little bit of a messiah complex? Christie has created his own monarchy and it's called New Jersey. One thing is about punishing any form of dissent from some opposition - bridge-gate, then it's onto using Federal funds to promote yourself on TV during an election cycle and all on the taxpayers dime. We see this where politicians literally get too carried away with themselves and start twisting the rules in their own favor. Nixon and Bush/Cheney immediately come to mind.

Good morning. It is 32 degrees and the sun is starting to get happy here in Upstate NY. The logos indicate temperatures in the 40s all week, we are having a respite from the bitter cold of January. In my opinion the most interesting and relevant story from last week was not Christie's political problems but the fact that temperatures around the globe more or less balanced against the polar vortex frigid temperatures in the US. Scandinavia is experiencing a very warm winter, and we also know that Australia is experiencing record breaking heat waves where temperatures are approaching an inhabitable degree. Call it what it is, climate change from global warming.

At 8:30 a.m. ET futures are slightly lower and the price of oil per barrel is down. The market is poised to open lower.

Investors are still shocked from last Friday's miserable job creation numbers and are also now attributing the non hiring to the frigid temperatures. Okay. This week is the beginning of corporate fourth quarter earnings reports. Although I did not read it, one might presume that the season kicks off with a report from Alcoa after the markets close.