“I’ve never quite felt that she could be positioned to win a midterm out here,” he told me today, saying he basis that opinion on “math and history.”

“She probably needed that presidential turnout to win.”

He said Heitkamp’s silence on Kavanaugh, and her attempt to split the difference between being a Trump supporter and a Trump opponent, has made her seem like a “calculating politician” versus one with conviction.

Heitkamp has “to abandon” the priorities of national Democrats “and align with her constituents” to win, and Lunde thinks Heitkamp missed her moment to do that.

House candidate Kelly Armstrong also joined me to talk about his campaign, as did former Trump advisor Marc Lotter.

Here’s the full audio of today’s show. If you can’t listen live, get the podcast.