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Leafs, Canes, Oilers Trade Deadline Predictions

The Leafs, Hurricanes and Oilers are the only teams in definitive selling mode as we approach the Olympic break and subsequent trade deadline and with the way things are going there may not be all that many other sellers out there. So for now, let’s stick with these three teams and Ilya Kovalchuk and make some predictions on whether the following players will be traded and what kind of return they could garner. My predictions will be in the comments.

21 comments

Ilya Kovalchuk – I don’t believe there will be many teams that get desperate enough to give up all that is required just to get Kovalchuk as a rental so any team would have to have serious aspirations to sign him to a long term deal. The one team that I could see doing that is the Philadelphia Flyers who might get desperate to turn things around and also don’t seem to have a problem giving out long term contracts that it seems Kovalchuk is asking for. A package of Jeff Carter, a first round pick and maybe a prospect or two is what it might take but Flyers might only do that if they can talk to Kovalchuk first and get him signed long term. Calgary may get desperate enough as well but Atlanta is probably looking for talent up front in return and here is where the Flyers would be the better match.

Tomas Kaberle – I don’t think he gets traded now or in the summer.
Alexei Ponikarovsky – Could be re-signed but most likely traded for a 2nd round pick. Pittsburgh or Nashville likely destination.
Matt Stajan – Traded to Columbus for a second round pick.
Niklas Hagman – 2 more years at $3M cap hit and salary
Lee Stempniak – Not wanting to be the next Dominic Moore, he re-signs for 3 years averaging $1.5M
Jamal Mayers – Traded for 5th round pick. Red Wings might be interested in a Mayers type player.
Garnett Exelby – Traded for a fringe prospect.
Wayne Primeau – Not traded
Vesa Toskala – Not traded
Jason Blake – I am not one that believes Blake is absolutely untradeable, but more likely an off season move.
Jeff Finger – Finger is now the Leafs most untradeable player. My prediction is he gets dumped on the Marlies next season to free up salary cap space.

In addition, I believe the Leafs make one salary acquisition move in which they acquire another teams salary dump and pick up at least a 3rd round pick in the transaction.

Sheldon Souray – Might get some interest from Anaheim but trade unlikely.
Steve Staios – I think Oilers are stuck with Staios until next years deadline at the earliest.
Shawn Horcoff – Not a chance anyone takes his salary. Well, maybe the Rangers if Oilers took Redden back. Horcoff remains an Oiler.
Ethan Moreau – If he didn’t have a contract for next season he’d be a nice pickup, but not many teams want to take on money next season for an aging 3rd/4th liner.
Fernando Pisani – Someone might gamble a 5th round pick in hopes of another 2006-like playoff performance.
Robert Nilsson – Will not be traded as there is not enough production to justify taking on another year at his salary.
Lubomir Visnovsky – No chance anyone takes on that contract

In the end, the Leafs will be quite active and Carolina fairly active. The Oilers won’t be too active, though they would probably like to be but it takes two sides to make a trade.

An interesting suggestion I have heard, is that the perfect team to trade for Kovy as a rental is Chicago.

They are going to have to dump salary in the offseason, so maybe they do it now and get Kovalchuk as a rental.

ie Sharp, Campbell and a mid pick?

In regards to trading Carter and a first round pick and a prospect, that is flatly ludicrous. Carter signed long term has more value than a rental on Kovalchuk. He is younger and looks to have slightly less potential, but to be a legitimate 40 goal guy who is a great 2 way player. Paid fairly at 5 mil. As well they don’t have any 1sts left, traded them all for Pronger.

As well I think it would be easier to trade Primeau than Mayers, but we would get similar thing (late round pick).

Honestly I don’t see him resigning Stemps. He doesn’t have the size for Burke to play him in the bottom six, nor the skill to play a top 6 role. If he is resigned it will be to play until he can be replaced by prospects in the bottom six. So 2 years or less?

In regards to Poni, I would like to get at least Antro value which is ‘a little more’ than a 2nd lol. His last two Leaf years, are better than Antro’s last two Leaf years, so he should have good value.

I notice you basically say all picks for these guys. I would like to see some prospects instead of picks, but I have a feeling you are right…

Chicago is a possibility as well. No chance that Atlanta wants Campbell. Way too expensive for them. Cam Barker would be a better fit.

Good point about Philly and not having a first round pick. As for Carter though, his contract expires after next season so he isn’t really locked up long term.

Burke isn’t all about size. Todd Marchant was an important component of the third and fourth lines and is tiny. Pahlsson isn’t all that much bigger than Stempniak. Stempniak has shown a good work ethic this season and chipped in a little offensively a bit too. If the price was right I could see him re-signing.

As for prospects instead of draft picks, yeah, a prospect or two would be nice but predicting prospects is difficult so where I say 2nd round pick read that as possibly being a second tier prospect. But to be honest, I am OK with draft picks. Draft picks are higher risk since you don’t know who you are getting and who you do get will be younger and less developed, but there is a remote chance that the draft pick will be a top tier player. You won’t be getting any projected top tier prospects with the second round pick.

At the moment Atlanta may balk at the Campbell contract, but if the Blackhawks are considering Salary Dump then I have an interesting idea on how they might make that work.

If the Thrashers were to deal Kubina + Kovalchuk to the Hawks for Sharp, Barker, and Ladd that would work for both sides.

Kubina + Kovalchuk = $11,389,300 against the cap this season… Both are UFA, so $0 against the cap next year… that works for Chicago.

Sharp + Barker + Ladd = $8,533,333 against the cap this year… Ladd is an RFA, Barker and Sharp are signed for the next 2 years beyond this one at a combined $6,983,333.

The Blackhawks have space to add $2,788,477 in cap hit for the remainder of this season. The difference between the Chicago and Atlanta contracts is $2,855,967. They would have to make a minor deal by trading someone away, or demoting a peripheral guy in exchange for someone that makes less, but they could make that happen.

This is far-fetched, but while we’re speculating I think the leafs should offer Boston Kaberle(assuming he would waive his NTC) , and maybe even Stajan or Poni for our first back. Basically a couple guys who most likely aren’t going to be here when we contend for possibly Seguin or Hall.

If only Burke had managed to pull off the Kessel for Kaberle deal in the first place.

But I have a question that Steve’s post made me think of. Why is Ladd considered such a good player? I don’t watch much Western games but his stats aren’t great, and they weren’t great in juniors yet he was the top WHL prospect.

Let me get this straight:
This is a direct quote from you (Daved Johnson), “First, I find it admirable that Burke is a man of his word and I think in the long run that bodes well for this franchise. Integrity is important, and I believe Burke has that”.

This is a direct quote from Brian Burke when talking about players asking for trades, “When you have players come ask you for a trade, I tell the players, don’t finish that sentence, because once you ask, I’m going to move you. If a player wants out, you’re darn right I’m going to move you. I’m not kissing anyone’s ass to play in my town, so to hell with you, don’t finish the sentence. My second rule is if I hear about this, you’re not going anywhere.”

But now you say that Exelby and Mayers will be traded by Toronto in your opinion? Wait a second, didn’t both those players ask to get the heck out of the hell hole that is Toronto? Yep!

Something doesn’t add up, other than the fact that you have no clue what you are talking about and Burke just talks to hear himself!!!!!!!!!!!!!

You lost me somewhere Railroad. On one hand Burke says he will trade anyone who asks to be traded and now you criticize me when I say Mayers and Exelby will be traded for a 5th round pick and fronge prospect respectively.

I think your logic that needs adjusting, or maybe you just type to read yourself.

Railroad, you are really stretching here in your criticism of me. First, oral comprehension skills? Maybe you need to look up the word oral in the dictionary.

Second, I am certain that he will likely trade Exelby and Mayers. I see your point but Burke said that in reference to the Dany Heatley situation and the Mayers/Exelby situations are much different. In the Heatley situation he demanded a trade, made it public, and essentially said he would never play for the organization again. In the Mayers/Exelby situation they are soon to be UFAs late in there careers and asked for a trade to a contending team or to a team where they would get more ice time. Neither have demanded a trade and are holding out until it happens (as Heatley indicated he would). Finally, Burke probably had every intention on trading them anyway if he could get something back for them.

Now, Railroad, you may find all of this as some great Burke lack of integrity issue and a great ‘David Johnson is clueless’ issue, but I think that it just says more about yourself than me.

OilersFan, I can’t see Dallas doing a Souray-Robidas deal or Pittsburgh doing Souray-Gonchar or Letang deal. Those deals makes no sense. Souray is an injury prone aging defenseman overpaid at $5.4M and really doesn’t have much market value so you aren’t going to get any top players back. I really don’t see the Oilers getting much of anything in return for Souray, if they can even trade him. If they can ditch his salary for anything that would be a good deal.

Much the same with Cogliano. He certainly has some skills and he showed it in his first couple seasons, but his development has regressed consistently since his rookie season to the point that he just isn’t very good this year. The worst thing they can do with Cogliano is trade him now when his value is quite low.

As for Eberle, it is good the Oilers aren’t rushing him. Let him develop properly. They rushed Cogliano and Gagner and I think that only hurts the player long term.

And now, almost half of your list for the leafs is gone, for Phaneuf and Giguire.
ALL PRAISE BURKE!!!!!!

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