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The news of 13.09.2010 on “PE expansion and contraction of PE” I have again drawn to the fascinating 17.6-year cycle in the equity markets. Now I got a similarly impressive Chart on U.S. interest rates into their hands.

20100923 Interest Zyklus60 60 year cycle of interest rates.

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The graph (click for full size), the USD interest shows since the mid-18th Century. It is not the interest of U.S. government bonds but are ready to buy corporate bonds with very good credit quality. Very impressive, as all occurring thirty years, a turnaround in interest rates.

However, and here we are again back in 2010, is also clear that a turnaround in interest rates for several years if not can take a decade. You have to be a prophet then to determine the potential interest in the area is slowly exhausted. But why put the same on rising interest rates, makes no sense. The global interest rates can persist for a long time on the current low level. Who controls the duration too short, paid for – depending on the steepness of the yield curve – a significant opportunity cost.

Chart: McClellan Financial Publications

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