Abstract : The number of males aged 18-19, which increased rapidly in the past decade, is levelling off and will begin declining. The decline in this age group as a proportion of the labor force is imminent. Opportunities for training in the civilian economy will be improved, the result of a diminishing supply of teenagers, expanded training programs, and reduced numbers of high school dropouts. As a result, the attraction of naval service will decline relative to civilian alternatives, and the Navy must look to sources of manpower other than first term enlistees. A more diversified manpower strategy is also dictated by the end of the draft. New enlistments are not a sufficiently flexible policy instrument for meeting this need. The report discusses the dimensions of the long-term manpower situation and provides a general discussion of alternative policies and strategies to maintain a viable Navy force. (Modified author abstract)