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Forecasting Interest Rates

Key Concepts

2. Explain the Fisher Effect, and tie it in with Loanable Funds Theory by explaining how inflation affects the demand and supply schedules for loanable funds.

3. Provide additional applications (especially current events) one at a time to help illustrate how events can affect the demand and supply schedules, and therefore influence interest rates.

4. Explain how forecasts of interest rates are needed to make financial decisions, which require forecasts of shifts in the demand and supply schedules for loanable funds.

5. Introduce several possible events simultaneously to illustrate how difficult it can be to forecast interest rate movements when several events are occurring at once.

POINT/COUNTER-POINT:

Does a Large Fiscal Budget Deficit Result in Higher Interest Rates?

POINT: No. In some years (such as 2008), the fiscal budget deficit was large and interest rates were very low.

COUNTER-POINT: Yes. When the federal government borrows large amounts of funds, it can crowd out other potential borrowers, and the interest rates are bid up by the deficit units.

WHO IS CORRECT? Use the Internet to learn more about this issue and then formulate your own opinion.

ANSWER: A large budget deficit does not automatically cause high interest rates. However, it does result in a large demand for funds, which will place upward pressure on interest rates unless there are offsetting forces.

Questions

1.Interest Rate Movements. Explain why interest rates changed as they did over the past year.

ANSWER: This exercise should force students to consider how the factors that influence interest rates have changed over the last year, and assess how these changes could have affected interest rates.

2.Interest Elasticity. Explain what is meant by interest elasticity. Would you expect federal government demand for loanable funds to be more or less interest-elastic than household demand for loanable funds? Why?

ANSWER: Interest elasticity of supply represents a change in the quantity of loanable funds supplied in response to a change in interest rates. Interest elasticity of demand represents a change in the quantity of loanable funds demanded in response to a change in interest rates.

The federal government demand for loanable funds should be less interest elastic than the consumer demand for loanable funds, because the government’s planned borrowings will likely occur regardless of the interest rate. Conversely, the quantity of loanable funds by consumers is more responsive to the interest rate level.

3.Impact of Government Spending. If the federal government planned to expand the space program, how might this affect interest rates?

ANSWER: An expanded space program would (a) force the federal government to increase its budget deficit, (b) possibly force any firms involved in facilitating the program to borrow more funds. Consequently, there is a greater demand for loanable funds. The additional spending could cause higher income and additional saving. Yet, this impact is not likely to be as great. The likely overall impact would therefore be upward pressure on interest rates.

4.Impact of a Recession. Explain why interest rates tend to decrease during recessionary periods. Review historical interest rates to determine how they react to recessionary periods. Explain this reaction.

ANSWER: During a recession, firms and consumers reduce their amount of borrowing. The demand for loanable funds decreases and interest rates decrease as a result.

5.Impact of the Economy. Explain how the expected interest rate in one year depends on your expectation of economic growth and inflation.

ANSWER: The interest rate in the future should increase if economic growth and inflation are expected to rise, or decrease if economic growth and inflation are expected to decline.

6.Impact of the Money Supply. Should increasing money supply growth place upward or downward pressure on interest rates?

ANSWER: If one believes that higher money supply growth will not cause inflationary expectations, the additional supply of funds places downward pressure on interest rates. However, if one believes that inflation expectations do erupt as a result, demand for loanable funds will also increase, and interest rates could increase (if the increase in demand more than offsets the increase in supply).

7.Impact of Exchange Rates on Interest Rates. Assume that if the U.S. dollar strengthens, it can place downward pressure on U.S. inflation. Based on this information, how might expectations of a strong dollar affect the demand for loanable funds in the United States and U.S. interest rates? Is there any reason to think that expectations of a strong dollar could also affect the supply of loanable funds? Explain.

ANSWER: As a strong U.S. dollar dampens U.S. inflation, it can reduce the demand for loanable funds, and therefore reduce interest rates. The expectations of a strong dollar could also increase the supply of funds because it may encourage saving (there is less concern to purchase goods before prices rise when inflationary expectations are reduced). In addition, foreign investors may invest more funds in the United States if they expect the dollar to strengthen, because that could increase their return on investment.

8.Nominal versus Real Interest Rate. What is the difference between the nominal interest rate and real interest rate? What is the logic behind the Fisher effect’s implied positive relationship between expected inflation and nominal interest rates?

ANSWER: The nominal interest rate is the quoted interest rate, while the real interest rate is defined as the nominal interest rate minus the expected rate of inflation. The real interest rate represents the recent nominal interest rate minus the recent inflation rate.

Investors require a positive real return, which suggests that they will only invest funds if the nominal interest rate is expected to exceed inflation. In this way, the purchasing power of invested funds increases over time. As inflation rises, nominal interest rates should rise as well since investors would require a nominal return that exceeds the inflation rate.

9.Real Interest Rate. Estimate the real interest rate over the last year. If financial market participants overestimate inflation in a particular period, will real interest rates be relatively high or low? Explain.

ANSWER: This exercise forces students to measure last year’s nominal interest rate and inflation rate.

If inflation is overestimated, the real interest rate will be relatively high. Investors had required a relatively high nominal interest rate because they expected inflation to be high (according to the Fisher effect).

ANSWER: Various factors may influence interest rates, and changes in these factors will affect interest rate movements. Experts disagree about how various factors will change. They also disagree about the specific influence these factors have on interest rates.

Advanced Questions

11. Impact of Stock Market Crises. During periods when investors suddenly become fearful that stocks are overvalued, they dump their stocks, and the stock market experiences a major decline. During these periods, interest rates also tend to decline. Use the loanable funds framework discussed in this chapter to explain how the massive selling of stocks leads to lower interest rates.

ANSWER: When investors shift funds out of stocks, they move it into money market securities, causing an increase in the supply of loanable funds, and lower interest rates.

12. Impact of Expected Inflation. How might expectations of higher global oil prices affect the demand for loanable funds, the supply of loanable funds, and interest rates in the United States? Will this affect the interest rates of other countries in the same way? Explain.

ANSWER: The expectations of higher oil prices will cause concern about the possible increase in inflation. Since higher inflation can increase interest rates, it will cause an expectation of higher interest rates in the U.S. Firms and government agencies may borrow more funds now before prices increase and before interest rates increase. Consumers may use their savings now to buy products before the prices increase. Therefore, the demand for loanable funds should increase, the supply of loanable funds should decrease, and interest rates should increase in the U.S.

The impact of higher global oil prices in other countries is not necessarily the same. If the country produces its own oil, it can set the oil prices in its country. If it can prevent high oil prices in its country, then the prices of products (gasoline) and services (transportation) may not be affected. Therefore, interest rates may not be affected.

13. Global Interaction of Interest Rates. Why might you expect interest rate movements of various industrialized countries to be more highly correlated in recent years than in earlier years?

ANSWER: Interest rates among countries are expected to be more highly correlated in recent years because financial markets are more geographically integrated. More international financial flows will occur to capitalize on higher interest rates in foreign countries, which affects the supply and demand conditions in each market. As funds leave a country with low interest rates, this places upward pressure on that country’s interest rates. The international flow of funds caused this type of reaction.

14.Impact of War. A war tends to cause significant reactions in financial markets. Why would a war in Iraq place upward pressure on U.S. interest rates? Why might some investors expect a war like this to place downward pressure on U.S. interest rates?

ANSWER: A war in Iraq places upward pressure on U.S. interest rates because it (1) increased inflationary expectations in the United States as oil prices increased abruptly, and (2) increased the expected U.S. budget deficit as government expenditures were necessary to boost military support. However, it may also cause some analysts to revise their forecasts of economic growth downward. The slower economy reflects a reduced corporate demand for funds, which by itself places downward pressure on interest rates. If inflation was not a concern, the Fed may attempt to increase money supply growth to stimulate the economy. However, the inflationary pressure can restrict the Fed from increasing the money supply to stimulate the economy (since any stimulative policy could cause higher inflation).

15.Impact of September 11. Offer an argument for why the terrorist attack on the United States on September 11, 2001 could have placed downward pressure on U.S. interest rates. Offer an argument for why that attack could have placed upward pressure on U.S. interest rates.

ANSWER: The terrorist attack could cause a reduction in spending related to travel (airlines, hotels), and would also reduce the expansion by those types of firms. This reflects a decline in the demand for loanable funds, and places downward pressure on interest rates. Conversely, the attack increases the amount of government borrowing needed to support a war, and therefore places upward pressure on interest rates.

16. Impact of Government Spending. Jayhawk Forecasting Services analyzed several factors that could affect interest rates in the future. Most factors were expected to place downward pressure on interest rates. Jayhawk also expected that although the annual budget deficit was to be cut by 40 percent from the previous year, it would still be very large. Thus, Jayhawk believed that the deficit’s impact would more than offset the effects of other factors, so it forecast interest rates to increase by 2 percent. Comment on Jayhawk’s logic.

ANSWER: A reduction in the deficit should free up some funds that had been used to support the government borrowings. Thus, there should be additional funds available to satisfy other borrowing needs. Given this situation plus the other information, Jayhawk should have forecasted lower interest rates.

17. Decomposing Interest Rate Movements. The interest rate on a one-year loan can be decomposed into a one-year risk-free (free from default risk) component and a risk premium that reflects the potential for default on the loan in that year. A change in economic conditions can affect the risk-free rate and the risk premium. The risk-free rate is normally affected by changing economic conditions to a greater degree than the risk premium. Explain how a weaker economy will likely affect the risk-free component, the risk premium, and the overall cost of a one-year loan obtained by (a) the Treasury, and (b) a corporation. Will the change in the cost of borrowing be more pronounced for the Treasury or for the corporation? Why?

ANSWER: The weaker economy will likely reduce the risk-free component and will increase the risk premium. The overall cost of borrowing is reduced for a loan to the Treasury and a loan to a corporation. There is a partial offsetting effect on the interest rate of the loan to the corporation. However, the Treasury does not have risk of default so there is no effect on the risk premium on a loan to the Treasury. The weaker economy will have a more pronounced impact on the interest rate of the loan to the Treasury, because there is no offsetting effect.

18. Forecasting Interest Rates Based on Prevailing Conditions. Consider the prevailing conditions for inflation (including oil prices), the economy, the budget deficit, and the Fed’s monetary policy that could affect interest rates. Based on these conditions, do you think interest rates will likely increase or decrease during this semester? Offer some logic to support your answer. Which factor do you think will have the greatest impact on interest rates?

ANSWER: This question is open-ended. It requires students to apply the concepts that were presented in this chapter in order to develop their own view. This question can be useful for class discussion because it will likely lead to a variety of answers, which reflects the dispersed opinions of market participants.

19.

Impact of Economic Crises on Interest Rates. When economic crises in countries are due to a weak economy, local interest rates tend to be very low. However, if the crisis was caused by an unusually high rate of inflation, interest rates tend to be very high. Explain why.

ANSWER: A weak economy causes a reduction in the demand for loanable funds, because corporations reduce their expansion plans as they anticipate a reduced demand for their products. The reduced demand for loanable funds results in lower interest rates.

However, if a crisis is caused by high inflation, corporations and households engage in heavy borrowing and spending before prices rise further. Thus, the strong demand for loanable funds places upward pressure on interest rates.

20. U.S. Interest Rates During the Credit Crisis. During the credit crisis, U.S. interest rates were extremely low, which enabled businesses to borrow at a low cost. Holding other factors constant, this should result in a higher number of feasible projects, which should encourage businesses to borrow more money and expand. Yet, many businesses that had access to loanable funds were unwilling to borrow during the credit crisis. What other factor changed during this period that more than offset the potentially favorable effect of the low interest rates on project feasibility, therefore discouraging businesses from expanding?

ANSWER: Businesses recognized that the cash flows to be generated from their projects would be low because the demand for their products and services was limited. Households could not afford to purchase more products. Thus, while low interest rates allow businesses to borrow funds cheap, many possible projects were not feasible because the expected cash flows were not sufficient.

Interpreting Financial News

Interpret the following comments made by Wall Street analysts and portfolio managers.

a. “The flight of funds from bank deposits to U.S. stocks will pressure interest rates.”

As the supply of loanable funds declines (due to bank deposit withdrawals), there will be upward pressure on interest rates.

b. “Since Japanese interest rates have recently declined to very low levels, expect a reduction in U.S. interest rates.”

As Japanese interest rates decline, Japanese savers invest more loanable funds in the United States, which places downward pressure on U.S. interest rates.

c. “The cost of borrowing by U.S. firms is dictated by the degree to which the federal government spends more than it taxes.”

As the federal government spends more than it taxes, it borrows the difference; the greater the amount borrowed, the higher the pressure on U.S. interest rates.

Managing in Financial Markets

As the treasurer of a manufacturing company, your task is to forecast the direction of interest rates. You plan to borrow funds and may use the forecast of interest rates to determine whether you should obtain a loan with a fixed interest rate or a floating interest rate. The following information can be considered when assessing the future direction of interest rates:

¨ Economic growth has been high over the last two years, but you expect that it will be stagnant over the next year.

¨ Inflation has been 3 percent over each of the last few years, and you expect that it will be about the same over the next year.

¨ The federal government has announced major cuts in its spending, which should have a major impact on the budget deficit.

¨ The Federal Reserve is not expected to affect the existing supply of loanable funds over the next year.

¨ The overall level of savings by households is not expected to change.

a. Given the preceding information, assess how the demand for and the supply of loanable funds would be affected (if at all), and predict the future direction of interest rates.

The demand for loanable funds should decline in response to: (1) stagnant economic growth (because a relatively low level of borrowing will be needed), and (2) a major cut in government spending. The supply of loanable funds should remain unchanged because the savings level is not expected to change, and the Fed is not expected to affect the existing money supply. Given a large decline in the demand for loanable funds and no significant change in the supply of loanable funds, U.S. interest rates should decline.

b. You can obtain a one-year loan at a fixed-rate of 8 percent or a floating-rate loan that is currently at 8 percent but would be revised every month in accordance with general interest rate movements. Which type of loan is more appropriate based on the information provided?

Since interest rates are expected to decline, you should prefer the floating-rate loan. As interest rates decline, the rate charged on this type of loan would decline.

c. Assume that Canadian interest rates have abruptly risen just as you have completed your forecast of future U.S. interest rates. Consequently, Canadian interest rates are now 2 percentage points above U.S. interest rates. How might this specific situation place pressure on U.S. interest rates? Considering this situation along with the other information provided, would you change your forecast of the future direction of U.S. interest rates?

This situation could encourage U.S. individuals and firms to withdraw their savings from U.S. financial institutions and send their funds to Canada to earn a higher interest rate (although they would have to convert their U.S. dollars into Canadian dollars and are therefore exposed to exchange rate risk). To the extent that savings are withdrawn from U.S. financial institutions, there would be a reduction in the supply of loanable funds in the U.S. Consequently, this specific situation places upward pressure on the U.S. interest rates.

While this specific situation places upward pressure on U.S. interest rates, the economic growth and the budget deficit are expected to place downward pressure on interest rates. Therefore, you would still forecast a decline in U.S. interest rates, unless you believe that the impact of the Canadian situation would overwhelm the impact of the economic growth and the budget deficit

Problems

1.Nominal Rate of Interest. Suppose the real interest rate is 6 percent and the expected inflation is 2 percent. What would you expect the nominal rate of interest to be?

ANSWER:

i = E(INF) + ir

i = 2% + 6% = 8%

2.Real Interest Rate. Suppose that Treasury bills are currently paying 9 percent and the expected inflation is 3 percent. What is the real interest rate?

ANSWER:

i = E(INF) + ir

ir = i – E(INF)

ir = 9% – 3% = 6%

Flow of Funds Exercise

How the Flow of Funds Affects Interest Rates

Recall that Carson Company has obtained substantial loans from finance companies and commercial banks. The interest rate on the loans is tied to market interest rates, and is adjusted every six months. Thus, its cost of obtaining funds is sensitive to interest rate movements. Given its expectations that the U.S. economy will strengthen, Carson plans to grow in the future by expanding its business and through acquisitions. Carson expects that it will need substantial long-term financing to pay for this growth, and it plans to borrow additional funds either through loans or by issuing bonds. The company is considering the issuance of stock to raise funds in the next year.

Explain why Carson should be very interested in future interest rate movements.

The future interest rate movements affect Carson’s cost of obtaining funds, and therefore may affect the value of its stock.

Given Carson’s expectations, do you think that the company anticipates that interest rates will increase or decrease in the future? Explain.

Carson expects the U.S. economy to strengthen, and therefore should expect that interest rates will increase (assuming other things held constant).

If Carson’s expectations of future interest rates are correct, how would this affect its cost of borrowing on its existing loans and on future loans?

Carson’s cost of borrowing will increase, because the interest rate on prevailing and future loans would be tied to market interest rates.

Explain why Carson’s expectations about future interest rates may affect its decision about when to borrow funds and whether to obtain floating-rate or fixed-rate loans.

If Carson expects rising interest rates, it may prefer to lock in today’s interest rate for a period that reflects the length of time that it will need funds. In this way, the cost of funds borrowed would be insulated from the changes in market interest rates.

Chapter 2—Determination of Interest Rates

1. According to the loanable funds theory, market interest rates are determined by the factors that control the supply of and demand for loanable funds.

a. True

b. False

ANS: T PTS: 1

2. The level of installment debt as a percentage of disposable income is generally ____ during recessionary periods.

a.

higher

b.

lower

c.

zero

d.

negative

ANS: B PTS: 1

3. At any given point in time, households would demand a ____ quantity of loanable funds at ____ rates of interest.

a.

greater; higher

b.

greater; lower

c.

smaller; lower

d.

none of the above

ANS: B PTS: 1

4. Businesses demand loanable funds to

a.

finance installment debt.

b.

subsidize other companies.

c.

invest in fixed and short-term assets.

d.

none of the above

ANS: C PTS: 1

5. The required return to implement a given business project will be ____ if interest rates are lower. This implies that businesses will demand a ____ quantity of loanable funds when interest rates are lower.

a.

greater; lower

b.

lower; greater

c.

lower; lower

d.

greater; greater

ANS: B PTS: 1

6. If interest rates are ____, ____ projects will have positive NPVs.

a.

higher; more

b.

lower; more

c.

lower; no

d.

none of the above

ANS: B PTS: 1

7. The demand for funds resulting from business investment in short-term assets is ____ related to the number of projects implemented, and is therefore ____ related to the interest rate.

a.

inversely; positively

b.

positively; inversely

c.

inversely; inversely

d.

positively; positively

ANS: B PTS: 1

8. If economic conditions become less favorable, then:

a.

expected cash flows on various projects will increase.

b.

more proposed projects will have expected returns greater than the hurdle rate.

c.

there would be additional acceptable business projects.

d.

there would be a decreased demand by business for loanable funds.

ANS: D PTS: 1

9. As a result of more favorable economic conditions, there is a(n) ____ demand for loanable funds, causing an ____ shift in the demand curve.

a.

decreased; inward

b.

decreased; outward

c.

increased; outward

d.

increased; inward

ANS: C PTS: 1

10. The federal government demand for loanable funds is ____. If the budget deficit was expected to increase, the federal government demand for loanable funds would ____.

a.

interest elastic; decrease

b.

interest elastic; increase

c.

interest inelastic; increase

d.

interest inelastic; decrease

ANS: C PTS: 1

11. Other things being equal, foreign governments and corporations would demand ____ U.S. funds if their local interest rates were lower than U.S. rates. Therefore, for a given set of foreign interest rates, foreign demand for U.S. funds is ____ related to U.S. interest rates.

a.

less; inversely

b.

more; positively

c.

less; positively

d.

more; inversely

ANS: A PTS: 1

12. For a given set of foreign interest rates, the quantity of U.S. loanable funds demanded by foreign governments or firms will be ____ U.S. interest rates.

a.

positively related to

b.

inversely related to

c.

unrelated to

d.

none of the above

ANS: B PTS: 1

13. The quantity of loanable funds supplied is normally

a.

highly interest elastic.

b.

more interest elastic than the demand for loanable funds.

c.

less interest elastic than the demand for loanable funds.

d.

equally interest elastic as the demand for loanable funds.

e.

A and B

ANS: C PTS: 1

14. The ____ sector is the largest supplier of loanable funds.

a.

household

b.

government

c.

business

d.

none of the above

ANS: A PTS: 1

15. The supply of loanable funds in the U.S. is partly determined by the monetary policy implemented by the Federal Reserve System.

a. True

b. False

ANS: T PTS: 1

16. If a strong economy allows for a large ____ in households income, the supply curve will shift ____.

a.

decrease; outward

b.

increase; inward

c.

increase; outward

d.

none of the above

ANS: C PTS: 1

17. The equilibrium interest rate

a.

equates the aggregate demand for funds with the aggregate supply of loanable funds.

b.

equates the elasticity of the aggregate demand and supply for loanable funds.

inflation is expected to exceed the nominal interest rate in the future.

b.

inflation is expected to be less than the nominal interest rate in the future.

c.

actual inflation was less than the nominal interest rate.

d.

actual inflation was greater than the nominal interest rate.

ANS: D PTS: 1

22. If inflation is expected to decrease, then

a.

savers will provide less funds at the existing equilibrium interest rate.

b.

the equilibrium interest rate will increase.

c.

the equilibrium interest rate will decrease.

d.

borrowers will demand more funds at the existing equilibrium interest rate.

ANS: C PTS: 1

23. If inflation turns out to be lower than expected

a.

savers benefit.

b.

borrowers benefit while savers are not affected.

c.

savers and borrowers are equally affected.

d.

savers are adversely affected but borrowers benefit.

ANS: A PTS: 1

24. If the economy weakens, there is ____ pressure on interest rates. If the Federal Reserve increases the money supply there is ____ pressure on interest rates (assume that inflationary expectations are not affected).

a.

upward; upward

b.

upward; downward

c.

downward; upward

d.

downward; downward

ANS: D PTS: 1

25. What is the basis of the relationship between the Fisher effect and the loanable funds theory?

a.

the saver's desire to maintain the existing real rate of interest

b.

the borrower's desire to achieve a positive real rate of interest

c.

the saver's desire to achieve a negative real rate of interest

d.

B and C

ANS: A PTS: 1

26. Assume that foreign investors who have invested in U.S. securities decide to decrease their holdings of U.S. securities and to instead increase their holdings of securities in their own countries. This should cause the supply of loanable funds in the United States to ____ and should place ____ pressure on U.S. interest rates.

a.

decrease; upward

b.

decrease; downward

c.

increase; downward

d.

increase; upward

ANS: A PTS: 1

27. Assume that foreign investors who have invested in U.S. securities decide to increase their holdings of U.S. securities. This should cause the supply of loanable funds in the United States to ____ and should place ____ pressure on U.S. interest rates.

a.

decrease; upward

b.

decrease; downward

c.

increase; downward

d.

increase; upward

ANS: C PTS: 1

28. If the federal government needs to borrow additional funds, this borrowing reflects a(n) ____ in the supply of loanable funds, and a(n) ____ in the demand for loanable funds.

a.

increase; no change

b.

decrease; no change

c.

no change; increase

d.

no change; decrease

ANS: C PTS: 1

29. If the federal government reduces its budget deficit, this causes a(n) ____ in the supply of loanable funds, and a(n) ____ in the demand for loanable funds.

a.

increase; no change

b.

decrease; no change

c.

no change; increase

d.

no change; decrease

ANS: D PTS: 1

30. Due to expectations of higher inflation in the future, we would typically expect the supply of loanable funds to ____ and the demand for loanable funds to ____.

a.

increase; decrease

b.

increase; increase

c.

decrease; increase

d.

decrease; decrease

ANS: C PTS: 1

31. Due to expectations of lower inflation in the future, we would typically expect the supply of loanable funds to ____ and the demand for loanable funds to ____.

a.

increase; decrease

b.

increase; increase

c.

decrease; increase

d.

decrease; decrease

ANS: A PTS: 1

32. If the real interest rate is expected by a particular person to become negative, then the purchasing power of his or her savings would be ____, as the inflation rate is expected to be ____ the existing nominal interest rate.

a.

decreasing; less than

b.

decreasing; greater than

c.

increasing; greater than

d.

increasing; less than

ANS: B PTS: 1

33. If economic expansion is expected to increase, then demand for loanable funds should ____ and interest rates should ____.

a.

increase; increase

b.

increase; decrease

c.

decrease; decrease

d.

decrease; increase

ANS: A PTS: 1

34. If economic expansion is expected to decrease, the demand for loanable funds should ____ and interest rates should ____.

a.

increase; increase

b.

increase; decrease

c.

decrease; decrease

d.

decrease; increase

ANS: C PTS: 1

35. If the real interest rate was stable over time, this would suggest that there is ____ relationship between inflation and nominal interest rate movements.

a.

a positive

b.

an inverse

c.

no

d.

an uncertain (cannot be determined from information above)

ANS: A PTS: 1

36. If inflation and nominal interest rates move more closely together over time than they did in earlier periods, this would ____ the volatility of the real interest rate movements over time.

a.

increase

b.

decrease

c.

have an effect, which cannot be determined with above information, on

d.

have no effect on

ANS: B PTS: 1

37. Canada and the U.S. are major trading partners. If Canada experiences a major increase in economic growth, it could place ____ pressure on Canadian interest rates and ____ pressure on U.S. interest rates.

a.

upward; upward

b.

upward; downward

c.

downward; downward

d.

downward; upward

ANS: A PTS: 1

38. If investors shift funds from stocks into bank deposits, this ____ the supply of loanable funds, and places ____ pressure on interest rates.

a.

increases; upward

b.

increases; downward

c.

decreases; downward

d.

decreases; upward

ANS: B PTS: 1

39. When Japanese interest rates rise, and if exchange rate expectations remain unchanged, the most likely effect is that the supply of loanable funds provided by Japanese investors to the United States will ____, and the U.S. interest rates will ____.

a.

increase; increase

b.

increase; decrease

c.

decrease; decrease

d.

decrease; increase

ANS: D PTS: 1

40. Which of the following will probably not result in an increase in the business demand for loanable funds?

a.

an increase in positive net present value (NPV) projects

b.

a reduction in interest rates on business loans

c.

a recession

d.

none of the above

ANS: C PTS: 1

41. If the aggregate demand for loanable funds increases without a corresponding ____ in aggregate supply, there will be a ____ of loanable funds.

a.

increase; surplus

b.

increase; shortage

c.

decrease; surplus

d.

decrease; shortage

ANS: B PTS: 1

42. A ____ federal government deficit increases the quantity of loanable funds demanded at any prevailing interest rate, causing an ____ shift in the demand schedule.

a.

higher; inward

b.

higher; outward

c.

lower; outward

d.

none of the above

ANS: B PTS: 1

43. Which of the following is not true regarding foreign interest rates?

a.

The large flow of funds between countries causes interest rates in any given country to become more susceptible to interest rate movements in other countries.

b.

The expectations of a strong dollar should cause a flow of funds to the U.S.

c.

An increase in a foreign country's interest rates will encourage investors in that country to invest their funds in other countries.

d.

All of the above are true regarding foreign interest rates.

ANS: C PTS: 1

44. Which of the following is least likely to affect household demand for loanable funds?

a.

a decrease in tax rates

b.

an increase in interest rates

c.

a reduction in positive net present value (NPV) projects available

d.

All of the above are equally likely to affect household demand for loanable funds.

ANS: C PTS: 1

45. Which of the following statements is incorrect?

a.

The Fed's monetary policy is intended to control the economic conditions in the U.S.

By influencing interest rates, the Fed is able to influence the amount of money that corporations and households are willing to borrow and spend.

d.

All of the statements above are true.

ANS: D PTS: 1

46. At any point in time, households and businesses demand a greater quantity of loanable funds at lower rates of interest.

a. True

b. False

ANS: T PTS: 1

47. The business demand for funds resulting from short-term investments is inversely related to the number of projects implemented and inversely related to the interest rate.

a. True

b. False

ANS: F PTS: 1

48. Other things being equal, a smaller quantity of U.S. funds would be demanded by foreign governments and corporations if their domestic interest rates were high relative to U.S. rates.

a. True

b. False

ANS: F PTS: 1

49. If foreign interest rates fall, foreign firms and governments would likely reduce their demand for U.S. funds.

a. True

b. False

ANS: T PTS: 1

50. Since the aggregate demand for loanable funds is the sum of the quantities demanded by the separate sectors, and since most of these sectors are likely to demand a larger quantity of funds at lower interest rates (other things being equal), the aggregate demand for loanable funds is positively related to interest rates at any point in time.

a. True

b. False

ANS: F PTS: 1

51. In general, suppliers of loanable funds are willing to supply more funds if the interest rate is higher.

a. True

b. False

ANS: T PTS: 1

52. If the aggregate demand for loanable funds increases without a corresponding increase in aggregate supply, there will be a surplus of loanable funds.

a. True

b. False

ANS: F PTS: 1

53. The relationship between interest rates and expected inflation is often referred to as the loanable funds theory.

a. True

b. False

ANS: F PTS: 1

54. According to the Fisher effect, if the real interest rate is zero, the nominal interest rate must be equal to the expected inflation rate.

a. True

b. False

ANS: T PTS: 1

55. To forecast interest rates using the Fisher effect, the real interest rate for an upcoming period can be forecasted by subtracting the expected inflation rate over that period from the nominal interest rate quoted for that period.

a. True

b. False

ANS: T PTS: 1

56. According to the Fisher effect, when the inflation rate is lower than anticipated, the real interest rate is relatively low.

a. True

b. False

ANS: F PTS: 1

57. Forecasters should consider future plans for corporate expansion and the future state of the economy when forecasting business demand for loanable funds.

a. True

b. False

ANS: T PTS: 1

58. The ____ suggests that the market interest rate is determined by factors that control the supply of and demand for loanable funds.

a.

Fisher effect

b.

loanable funds theory

c.

real interest rate

d.

none of the above

ANS: B PTS: 1

59. Which of the following will probably not result in an increase in the business demand for loanable funds?

a.

an increase in positive net present value (NPV) projects

b.

a reduction in interest rates on business loans

c.

a recession

d.

All of the above will result in an increase in the business demand for loanable funds.

ANS: C PTS: 1

60. Other things being equal, a ____ quantity of U.S. funds would be demanded by foreign governments and corporations if their domestic interest rates were ____ relative to U.S. rates.

a.

smaller; high

b.

larger; high

c.

larger; low

d.

none of the above

ANS: B PTS: 1

61. The federal government demand for funds is said to be interest inelastic, or ____ to interest rates.

a.

sensitive

b.

insensitive

c.

relatively sensitive as compared to other sectors

d.

none of the above

ANS: B PTS: 1

62. If the aggregate demand for loanable funds increases without a corresponding ____ in aggregate supply, there will be a ____ of loanable funds.

a.

increase; surplus

b.

increase; shortage

c.

decrease; surplus

d.

decrease; shortage

ANS: B PTS: 1

63. The expected impact of an increased expansion by businesses is an ____ shift in the demand schedule and ____ in the supply schedule.

a.

inward; an inward shift

b.

inward; an outward shift

c.

outward; an inward shift

d.

outward; no obvious change

ANS: D PTS: 1

64. Which of the following is a valid representation of the Fisher effect?

a.

i = E(INF) + iR

b.

iR = E(INF) + i

c.

E(INF) = i + iR

d.

none of the above

ANS: A PTS: 1

65. The real interest rate can be forecasted by subtracting the ____ from the ____ for that period.

a.

nominal interest rate; expected inflation rate

b.

prime rate; nominal interest rate

c.

expected inflation rate; nominal interest rate

d.

prime rate; expected inflation rate

ANS: C PTS: 1

66. According to the Fisher effect, expectations of higher inflation cause savers to require a ____ on savings.

a.

higher nominal interest rate

b.

higher real interest rate

c.

lower nominal interest rate

d.

lower real interest rate

ANS: A PTS: 1

67. A ____ federal government deficit increases the quantity of loanable funds demanded at any prevailing interest rate, causing an ____ shift in the demand schedule.

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I have sm(solutions manual ) and tb(test bank) files ,it is Electronic Version, if you need solutions manual or test bank ,please contact me by email: ggsmtb@gmail.com ，Search in This Blog Search Engine with the textbook name or author as the keywords.
if the title what u need is in my blog, only copy the title and email to ggsmtb@gmail.com
if what u need isn’t in my blog ,don’t worry , send the email with textbook name ,isbn and publisher to ggsmtb@gmail.com ,then maybe I can find it for u.
, thanks!!!!
http://www.solutionsmanualtb.com/2014/07/sample-of-solutions-manual-and-test-bank.html
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