Gay marriage polling uncertain

A new poll in Washington state shows a comfortable lead for R-74, a referendum that would approve same-sex marriage.

Fifty-four percent of voters support the ballot measure, according to a KCTS 9 Washington Poll released Thursday, compared with 38 percent who oppose it.

Washington is one of four Democratic-oriented states that will be voting on same-sex marriage measures on Election Day — Maine, Maryland, and Minnesota are the others — and in each of them, polling suggests that November could provide a breakthrough victory on an issue that has never passed on a statewide ballot.

There’s just one problem. In the past, polling surrounding same-sex marriage measures has been highly unreliable — voters have not always been truthful with pollsters about their true voting preference.

As a result, the University of Washington, which conducted the KCTS 9 poll, also offered adjusted data to account for “social desirability bias” — the tendency of voters to misrepresent their true feelings on sensitive issues in an attempt to present themselves in a way that will seem favorable to others.

With the adjusted vote estimate, the results were a lot closer — 53 percent in support of the measure and 47 percent in opposition.

That’s a 9-point swing in opposition, a dramatically higher percentage than in the unadjusted results and one that should worry marriage equality advocates since the polling spread in Maine, Maryland and Minnesota is under 10 points.