Happy Election Day Eve, mighty voting public. Have your sample ballots marked up and ready to roll? Know every ballot measure by heart? It’s a wonder to live in one of the world’s strongest democracies!

In the interest of fairness, we won’t engage in anything remotely partisan today. But this is a time of year that puts a blush in the cheek and a spring in the step of those political scientist types, so we’ve checked in with a few to see what’s getting them particularly giddy right about now.

‘UNIVERSE OF STUPID’

“There seems to be so much more at stake than there usually is, it seems to have created an expanding universe of stupid,” said Phillip L. Gianos at Cal State Fullerton.

He points to Senate races in Virginia (where a senator in a tight race referred to a volunteer of Indian descent as a “macaca”), Tennessee (where an ad featuring a blond, bare-shouldered party girl coaxes a black candidate to “call me,” whipping up charges of racism), and right here at home (as the flap over letters sent to people with Hispanic last names continues).

There’s also the recent comments by Sen. John Kerry to college students (urging them to make the most of their educations, because “if you don’t, you get stuck in Iraq,” leading to charges that he called U.S. troops stupid).

“It’s like a larger universe of tight races translates into desperation,” Gianos said. “Every year you think things have gotten as dumb as things can get, and then they still get dumber. It’s kind of amazing.”

A LOSS IS A GAIN?

“For a midterm election, this is a very important election,” says Lori Cox Han, professor and chairwoman of the political science department at Chapman University. “Who will control Congress? What will that mean for the next two years?”

Get this: It could benefit the president, she says, if his party loses. “Losing one or both houses will force him to come back to the center a little more and take a more bipartisan approach. … If the Republicans retain power, it makes it harder to see a shift in policy.”

Cox Han, a scholar on the presidency, is working on a book about the first President Bush’s tenure. Interesting observation: “H.W. and George W. are not at all alike,” she said.

THE ‘FERRET FACTOR’

This may be a tad indelicate, but research has shown that a candidate’s appearance can be a solid predictor of his electability.

“There is a ferret factor with the Democratic candidate for governor,” says Lisa Garcia Bedolla, a UC Irvine associate professor. “Phil Angelides is not a good-looking man.

“But Schwarzenegger has had seriously bad plastic surgery,” she adds.

“The hair, the eyebrows, it just doesn’t match. You’d think that, with that much money, you’d be able to hire someone who really knows what they’re doing. … He and Maria are both pulled way too tight.”

But that’s obviously not what will decide the race. Angelides suffered a blow similar to what befell John Kerry in 2004, she says: Schwarzenegger was able to define Angelides early, as Bush was able to define Kerry early. “Once the Democrats start talking about how they’re not going to raise taxes, they can forget it.”

On the local front, she hopes there will be serious discussion about voting rights in the days to come.

Teri Sforza is one of the lead reporters on the OCR/SCNG probe of fraud, abuse and death in the Southern California addiction treatment industry. Our "Rehab Riviera" coverage won first place for investigative reporting from the California Newspaper Publishers Association, first place for projects reporting from Best of the West and is a finalist for the National Institute for Health Care Management Foundation's print award, competing with the New York Times, the Washington Post and ProPublica. Sforza birthed the Watchdog column for The Orange County Register in 2008, aiming to keep a critical (but good-humored) eye on governments and nonprofits, large and small. It won first place for public service reporting from the California Newspaper Publishers Association in 2010. She also contributed to the OCR's Pulitzer Prize-winning investigation of fertility fraud at UC Irvine, covered what was then the largest municipal bankruptcy in America‘s history, and is the author of "The Strangest Song," the first book to tell the story of a genetic condition called Williams syndrome and the extraordinary musicality of many of the people who have it. She earned her M.F.A. from UCLA's School of Theater, Film and Television, and enjoys making documentaries, including the OCR's first: "The Boy Monk," a story that was also told as a series in print. Watchdogs need help: Point us to documents that can help tell stories that need to be told, and we'll do the rest. Send tips to watchdog@ocregister.com.

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