Drew has been a master at controlling the count

Thursday

Dec 27, 2012 at 8:15 PM

Itís a baseball truism that a hitter ahead in the count is going to have more success than a hitter behind in the count.

Brian MacPherson Journal Sports Writer brianmacp

Itís a baseball truism that a hitter ahead in the count is going to have more success than a hitter behind in the count. The more hitters in a lineup who can manipulate the count in their favor, the more success that lineup will have. The trick is how to get to that point.

In signing Stephen Drew ó a deal announced as official on Wednesday ó the Red Sox have taken a step back in that direction.

Back when Boston had one of the best lineups in baseball, it had a collection of hitters proficient at steering the count in their direction. The 2007 World Series-winning Red Sox team ranked second in the major leagues at being ahead in the count on the action pitch, the pitch that determined the outcome of the at-bat. Boston hitters were ahead in the count in 38.5 percent of their at-bats, behind only the New York Yankeesí 39.9 percent and well ahead of the league average of 35.4 percent.

The disappointing 2012 Red Sox ranked 20th in the major leagues in being ahead in the count. At 33.2 percent, they were worse even than the woeful Houston Astros and the offensively inept Seattle Mariners.

Ben Cherington has said he wants to build a lineup with better plate discipline than it had last year. Plate discipline is in part about walks, but itís also about controlling the count and tilting the scales in favor of the hitter. Mike Aviles had one of the lowest on-base percentages among all American League hitters last season, but he still posted a .372 on-base percentage and .439 slugging percentage when he was ahead in the count.

(The average major-leaguer last season hit .300 with a .467 on-base percentage and .507 slugging percentage when ahead in the count. When behind in the count, those numbers fell to .204/.211/.303.)

Itís not a coincidence that the hitters with the best on-base percentages in the Red Sox lineup last season ó David Ortiz, Daniel Nava and Dustin Pedroia ó were second-, third- and fourth-most adept among Red Sox hitters at getting ahead in the count. All three were ahead in the count at the end of the at-bat at least 38.8 percent of the time, well ahead the major-league average of 33.8 percent. (The most adept? The departed Kevin Youkilis at 42.4 percent.)

At the other end of the spectrum, the hitters who couldnít seem to get ahead in the count were the hitters who tended to have the toughest time getting on base. Aviles got ahead in the count just 27.3 percent of the time, Carl Crawford 24 percent, Jose Iglesias 22.1 percent, Pedro Ciriaco 21.3 percent. All put themselves at a disadvantage in the plurality of their at-bats by not controlling the count.

Thatís where Drew comes in ó and Mike Napoli, too, should the issues that arose during his physical be resolved.

Like his older brother, Drew is a Youkilis-level talent at controlling the count from the plate. After he returned from injury last season, he got ahead in the count a whopping 45.6 percent of the time. Over the course of his career, heís gotten ahead in the count 39.4 percent of the time.

Napoli last season got ahead in the count 42.2 percent of the time, still better than Ortiz, Nava or Pedroia ó and significantly better than Adrian Gonzalezís 34.7 percent. Over the course of his career, heís gotten ahead in the count 39.8 percent of the time.

What about the Napoli alternatives? Nick Swisher is off the market now, having signed a lucrative contract with the Cleveland Indians, but he got ahead in the count in 45.7 percent of his plate appearances last season. Adam LaRoche, still on the market, got ahead in the count in 41 percent of his plate appearances. Both would have led all qualifying Red Sox hitters.

Josh Hamilton, for the sake of comparison, was ahead in the count just 29.6 percent of the time last season, better than Mauro Gomez but slightly worse than Scott Podsednik.

Not all of the Red Sox acquisitions fit this profile. Shane Victorino got ahead in the count 32.3 percent of the time last season, slightly below the major-league average ó and that was a little higher than his typical career numbers. Jonny Gomes usually gets ahead in the count around 33 percent of the time but saw that number dip to an Iglesias-esque 21.9 percent last season.