REPUBLICANS HOLD AN EDGE IN KEEPING CONTROL OF HOUSE

By RICHARD L. BERKE

Published: March 29, 1998

WICHITA, Kan., March 27—
As Republicans struggle to retain the narrowest House majority held by any party in the last half century, they may benefit in this year's midterm elections from something of a political security blanket: Incumbents around the nation are savoring high popularity ratings, and the sturdy economy and dearth of contentious issues has left many challengers with no foothold.

Although the two parties are also wrangling over 36 governorships and a third of the Senate, the early signs point to one of the most serene midterm election seasons in years, even in districts like Representative Todd Tiahrt's here, which have seen pitched battles in each of the last two elections.

Democrats concede that they have no chance to regain the majority in the Senate this year, while Republicans do not count on reaching the 60-vote margin needed to cut off a filibuster. Democrats also expect that Republicans will hold on to most of the big-state governorships. That leaves most of the attention on about 75 of the most competitive House seats.

Most political analysts agree that Republicans are well positioned to maintain their House margin, but their 11-seat edge is so slim that no one can speak with confidence about the outcome. Even if the House does not change hands, the result will be important in determining the extent of President Clinton's negotiating room over the next two years.

The quiet campaign environment may be deceptive. The wild card looming over the electorate is how -- or even whether -- the White House sex scandal will play. It could bring out angry Republicans in November. Or if the House Republicans conduct impeachment hearings, that could embolden Democrats who could view it as excessively partisan. Another possibility is that the issue will not sway voters one way or another.

Though incumbents are mindful of the possibility of a dramatic event that could alter the political forces, they are enjoying what many of them said in interviews is the most stress-free pre-election period in years. Here in Wichita at this time two years ago, Mr. Tiahrt (pronounced TEE-heart) was in a tight re-election battle as unions were bombarding the district with television commercials portraying him as eager to slash Medicare. His campaign headquarters was in full swing in downtown offices, and Mr. Tiahrt was furiously calling supporters for donations.

This year, Democrats have yet to find an opponent for Mr. Tiahrt -- and they might not do so. The only semblance of a campaign in Mr. Tiahrt's Fourth Congressional District is in the basement of Linda Arensdorf's modest clapboard house in west Wichita. She is the campaign's only paid staff member thus far. Instead of frenetic volunteers, the only background noise is Rush Limbaugh on the radio.

''This is it,'' Mrs. Arensdorf said as she surveyed the quarters from which she responds to letters from the Federal Election Commission and sends mailings to supporters. ''Pretty impressive, huh?''

Reminding her visitor from the East that ''we have tornadoes in this part of the county,'' she fretted that the basement was so cramped that ''we'd have no place to go.'' Still, Mrs. Arensdorf said it was a welcome change from two years ago, when ''the feeling I had was that we were trying to repair a car while we were going 60 or 70 miles an hour down the highway.''

No one seems more appreciative or, more accurately, relieved, than Mr. Tiahrt, a conservative who in 1994 upset Representative Dan Glickman, a Democrat who had held the seat for 18 years and is now Secretary of Agriculture. ''Last time I was fighting for my life,'' said Mr. Tiahrt, who won with only 50 percent of the vote in 1996. ''Now, I'm enjoying the products of hard labor. Instead of fighting negative ads, I'm basking in the satisfaction of being able to do something for my district.''

Mr. Tiahrt is not alone. While Kansas is a largely Republican state, local officials in both parties said they could not remember so little competition against the Republican incumbents. Gov. Bill Graves, who was in a hard-fought race four years ago, has no opponent. Nor does Senator Sam Brownback, who was elected in a bitter battle two years ago to fill the seat vacated by Senator Bob Dole. Of the four members of Congress from the state, only one, Representative Vince Snowbarger, appears to have a serious challenge.

The lack of competition extends far beyond the plains of Kansas. In Pennsylvania, six years ago, Senator Arlen Specter found himself in an intense struggle after his role in the confirmation hearings of Clarence Thomas as a Supreme Court Justice. And four years ago, Gov. Tom Ridge of Pennsylvania was in a costly, high-profile race. This year, those two Republicans face only token opposition.

In Texas, the race for Governor is the least competitive in years. Gov. George W. Bush has an enormous lead in early polls over Garry Mauro, the State Land Commissioner. Former Gov. Ann Richards was also popular, but that did not stop Mr. Bush from taking her on four years ago.

''It's going to be a huge incumbent's year,'' said Representative Joe Scarborough, a Florida Republican. ''It's going to be monstrous. I think 98 percent will return'' to office.