Most of those movies wont even be made or if they are made, may be pushed back. Do you seriously think that BvS wil make less than MOS because people would rather watch Independence Day 2? Really?

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Originally Posted by smashmode

That is non-sense. BvS has 2 weeks to itself. Its not going to do less than MoS. It will make at least that much based on sheer curiousity

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Originally Posted by marvelrobbins

Fantastic four reboot Is coming In march.There Is no terminator 5.Terminator as we know it is dead.A reboot Is coming summer 2015.Add ant-man to list now.

It doesn't matter if these are 300 million dollar movies and not 600 million dollar movies. Just looking at the list I see films that have the potential to be much stronger challengers than say, Oblivion, After Earth, Red 2, and Elysium. Any additional money they make is money taken away from BvS, Avengers, etc.

In the off-chance that any of Terminator 5, Independence Day 2, Ant Man, or Jurassic Park 4 happen to be good, then they can become 600 million dollar movies rather than 300 million dollar movies. They will then consume an even larger share of the pie, which is a fixed pie.

Finally, don't think that Batman vs Superman is a historical pop culture event which is what the youtube videos are saying. It probably won't be. Most movies aren't. Most people don't care. Ben Affleck was in the news briefly, and then was removed by Miley Cyrus and Robin Thicke who got 10x more attention. Do you think that Cyrus and Thicke will now dominate their competition in ticket sales for concerts? I doubt it. Most people really don't care.

Finally, no movie has "a few weeks to itself". A lot of movie goers go to the movie theatre once a month or less, there are always several movies that they have not seen. It's not uncommon for the top movie in a weekend to make less than a third of the total made by all movies in a weekend.

Avengers 2 and Batman vs Superman look like the titans of the summer, both destined for a 1 billion dollar gross, but they are in an unstable equilibrium. If the other movies are surprisingly good, or if either of Avengers 2 or BvS disappoints artistically (entirely possible), then they will fall at the box office, and a sub-700 million gross is entirely possible.

It doesn't matter if these are 300 million dollar movies and not 600 million dollar movies. Just looking at the list I see films that have the potential to be much stronger challengers than say, Oblivion, After Earth, Red 2, and Elysium. Any additional money they make is money taken away from BvS, Avengers, etc.

In the off-chance that any of Terminator 5, Independence Day 2, Ant Man, or Jurassic Park 4 happen to be good, then they can become 600 million dollar movies rather than 300 million dollar movies. They will then consume an even larger share of the pie, which is a fixed pie.

Finally, don't think that Batman vs Superman is a historical pop culture event which is what the youtube videos are saying. It probably won't be. Most movies aren't. Most people don't care. Ben Affleck was in the news briefly, and then was removed by Miley Cyrus and Robin Thicke who got 10x more attention. Do you think that Cyrus and Thicke will now dominate their competition in ticket sales for concerts? I doubt it. Most people really don't care.

Finally, no movie has "a few weeks to itself". A lot of movie goers go to the movie theatre once a month or less, there are always several movies that they have not seen. It's not uncommon for the top movie in a weekend to make less than a third of the total made by all movies in a weekend.

Avengers 2 and Batman vs Superman look like the titans of the summer, both destined for a 1 billion dollar gross, but they are in an unstable equilibrium. If the other movies are surprisingly good, or if either of Avengers 2 or BvS disappoints artistically (entirely possible), then they will fall at the box office, and a sub-700 million gross is entirely possible.

Its far more likely that Terminator 5, Independence Day 2, Jurassic Park 4, etc won't be any good and in fact will be the blockbusters that will crash and burn in a crowded marketplace. Those are tired franchises who have long ago extinguished audience goodwill and they don't exactly have fervent fan bases clamoring for another installment. Even on the off chance, that they are any good they still won't exactly threaten BvS, with the their studios giving them a wide bearth far away from July 17th.

You are kidding yourself if you don't think that the first onscreen meeting of Superman and Batman has no pop culture resonance. The Affleck casting was major news heavily covered by mainstream outlets. Everybody was talking about it, not just fanboys, even people who usually have no interest in these kind of movies. Do you think that the casting news of any of the movies you identified as a threat will generate even a fifth of the uproar caused by the Batfleck news? No one gives a **** about any of those movies, but they do care about Batman. Most movies can only dream of that kind of free publicity.

You are also shifting the goal posts. Your initial post said that you wouldn't be surprised if the movie makes about $500 million worldwide (i.e far less than even M.O.S) and now you are backpedaling and shifting to "a sub-700 million gross"? Ok, sure . Somehow I get the feeling that the figure constitting a box office failure or diasspointment will continue to steadily rise up. ("This movie is a disappointment if it fails to clear $1.5 billion dollars! Nyah, nyah no backsies")

Its far more likely that Terminator 5, Independence Day 2, Jurassic Park 4, etc won't be any good and in fact will be the blockbusters that will crash and burn in a crowded marketplace. Those are tired franchises who have long ago extinguished audience goodwill and they don't exactly have fervent fan bases clamoring for another installment. Even on the off chance, that they are any good they still won't exactly threaten BvS, with the their studios giving them a wide bearth far away from July 17th.

You are kidding yourself if you don't think that the first onscreen meeting of Superman and Batman has no pop culture resonance. The Affleck casting was major news heavily covered by mainstream outlets. Everybody was talking about it, not just fanboys, even people who usually have no interest in these kind of movies. Do you think that the casting news of any of the movies you identified as a threat will generate even a fifth of the uproar caused by the Batfleck news? No one gives a **** about any of those movies, but they do care about Batman. Most movies can only dream of that kind of free publicity.

You are also shifting the goal posts. Your initial post said that you wouldn't be surprised if the movie makes about $500 million worldwide (i.e far less than even M.O.S) and now you are backpedaling and shifting to "a sub-700 million gross"? Ok, sure . Somehow I get the feeling that the figure constitting a box office failure or diasspointment will continue to steadily rise up. ("This movie is a disappointment if it fails to clear $1.5 billion dollars! Nyah, nyah no backsies")

Those movies could be either good or bad, you have no idea. Sometimes things I expect to suck turn out ok to pretty good: Sarah Connor Chronicles, Rise of the Planet of the Apes, etc. I maintain that I don't think they can destroy BvS or Avengers, but I do think they can damage them, as in be the difference between 900 and 650 million, for example.

As for me shifting the goal posts, first of all the thread informed that Pirates 5 and Fantastic Four Reboot are not summer 2015 material, on which I was mistaken. Second, I have obviously not done a full actuarial analysis. I'm simply saying that BvS has a steep hill to climb to be a guaranteed historical blockbuster. First and foremost, it needs to be a genuinely good movie, which is not guaranteed as this is a challenging story to tell and they don't have all the time in the world. Second, they need a clear road.

I can't be sure what would count as a failure, but I'm guessing that WB probably wants 1 billion plus. It may also be that they don't care how much it makes, as long as it makes more than Avengers 2, lol.

The whole culture is not talking about this movie. I saw 3 or 4 mentions on my FB newsfeed... that's a lot, but not "everybody" as there are a few hundred active people there. Ben Affleck got a lot more attention, but once again, Miley Cyrus got a lot more.

Hmm, not sure MOS2 can do that either. Though I think TDK is overrated many people feel it had a good story and good action. To make 1 billion you need more than just 2 big names coming together in a movie.

I don't see it as a lock to make 800 mil honestly. The trailers will have to be phenomenal.

lol, so pretty much a little more than that last spiderman film, Which means conceivably less than ASM2 will make.

This reminds me of the times just before Avengers opened. Alot of people that (justifiably) weren't impressed with the marvel studios output at the time were low balling. Marvel's biggest property going in was IM2 of all things.

People are losing sight of just what got Avengers the fever hype it did:

VIDEO-CLick to Watch!:

Shameless and genius disney marketing on steroids with a very specific purpose. To sell an event.

At that point cap was hardly a "super solider" but they said he was.
Those "master assassins" were mostly sight gags in decent films
I suppose thor was a "demi god" by definition, hardly hercules level branding though.
Hulk? Edward Norton was out, you know kinda like christian bale is out, but instead of being replaced with another b list actor they have A list oscar guy.
And 'Me' RDJ, again after IM2.
All these films made less than MOS in some sense and none with the exception of maybe IM1 had caused as much discussion. None of the marvel castings were Batfleck buzzy and their avengers reveal panel actually needed actors for a comic con shut down.

Coming off of that, they opened 200mill plus in 3 days? Yet people believe this zeitgeist event with the two first and most famous heroes(and possibly the third) is going to do far less?

If WB taps into the event that is Batman vs Superman who wins...they will rake in money.

The thing people are forgetting is that Avengers was loved by audiences; it had only one big Superhero but like TDK it had a good story and good characters. MOS divided audiences and wasn't largely loved and accepted like The Avengers. Again, people who are saying it will make a billion are just basing it on 2 big names in the movie and aren't bothering to wonder if the story will bring in audiences.

I think for the movie to get into 1+ billion range it needs to be lighter and have more humour.

Reason why avengers so successful was because it was more family friendly event

That's not an issue for me but it may be for the GA

batman(and pretty much no one else save for post avengers iron man 3) broke a billion alone. This time batman has help. And his name's not bane and the movie won't be him sitting in a hole for half the movie.
I think the GA will be fine.

I for one am very curious of the people that saw mos, how many hated it enough to not see this next movie, home video or other wise. Just doesn't seem all that likely.

If it has the quality of TDK it will sail past 1.3 billion but with Zack Snyder at the helm I wouldn't hold my breath.

I agree that it either needs to be lighter like Avengers or Iron Man or have very good writing and directing like TDK; I don't have much hope for either with Snyder and Goyer in charge. MOS was good enough for me I don't need it to make Avengers type money, Superman has much more dead weight around his neck.