Paul Mylchreest, author of the Thunder Road, releases his much anticipated latest report, and it's a doozy: "2012: Dear Portfolio Manager, you are leaving the capitalist sector and heading into a full-spectrum crisis." He continues: "You were to hear a report on the world crisis. That is what you are going to hear. For twelve years you have been asking: Who is John Galt? This is John Galt speaking….Now it’s getting serious. 2012 will be a year to remember as the globalist agenda comes into focus amidst economic and geo-political crises: The titles of the last two Thunder Road Reports were prefaced with “Helter Skelter” - “The Illusion of Market Stability” followed by “Gentlemen Start Your Engines”. Sadly, the Helter Skelter I was writing about – the second part of the Great Financial Crisis is in progress and I’m expecting it to come to a head next year (2013 if we’re very lucky). The only question is WHAT brings it to a head? We’re not short of possible causes – a bank failure, sovereign default, Eurozone tipping into recession or the Middle East. Despite all the evidence to the contrary, like overwhelming debt levels and insolvent banks/sovereigns, the consensus seems convinced that we can “muddle through”. Dow Theory veteran, Richard Russell, explained it best: “In the coming two or three years we will be going through unprecedented situations beyond the understanding of most analysts.”"

From the report:

The turbocharged, debt-driven over-consumption of past decades must be undone. The strong medicine could and should have been taken years ago. As the primary architect, Greenspan shoulders much blame, but shrugs it off. The financial system is already past the point of no return (“In my mind and in my car, we can’t rewind we’ve gone too far”) – and we are on the brink of a TSUNAMI of new money/credit creation to delay its failure. This will be the final run to the summit of the Ponzi scheme. All Ponzi schemes end and there will have to be a system reboot. This is a “Crisis of the Ages”;

To maintain credibility in the face of insane monetary/fiscal policies, a scapegoat for the coming surge in inflation would be helpful to TPTB, perhaps even necessary. The conflict in the Middle East and North Africa is almost certain to escalate, threatening to disrupt world oil supply. A surging oil price could be blamed as an “unexpected” external shock for the “unexpected” surge in inflation, which central bankers have repeatedly assured us (falsely) is not on the horizon. Since the creation of the Federal Reserve in 1913, the purchasing power of the US dollar has already declined by 98% (using the Fed’s own data). With a track record like that, the last 2% is not going to be difficult. Substantial declines in the purchasing power of the Euro, Yen and Sterling are likely to precede the dollar, especially if the oil price surges (importing nations will need to hold more dollars);

BBWestern nations are at increased risk of false flag events as part of a “Strategy of tension” – be prepared then you won’t be surprised. Wikipedia: “The strategy of tension is a theory that describes how to divide, manipulate, and control public opinion using fear, propaganda, disinformation, psychological warfare, agents provocateurs, and false flag t------st actions. The theory began with allegations that the United States government and the Greek military junta of 1967–1974 supported farright t------st groups in Italy and Turkey, where communism was growing in popularity, to spread panic among the population who would in turn demand stronger and more dictatorial governments.” TPTB might prefer a distracted, pliant and fearful public; and

The majority of people probably won’t agree (yet) with much of this paragraph, but we are in a chain of events where the direction of travel is: INFLATIONISM - INTERVENTIONISM - SOCIALISM - REDUCED LIVING STANDARDS - TOTALITARIANISM. Elements of all of them are already present to a greater or lesser extent, as I’ll discuss. Of course, the earlier ones, inflationism and interventionism (which Ludwig Von Mises described as “socialism by installments”), are the most obvious. What we are experiencing was prophesied in fictional form by Ayn Rand in her masterpiece “Atlas Shrugged” when it was published in 1957. I’m reading it and it’s amazing.

This process raises interesting questions regarding asset allocation and while not all of them are very palatable, we are where we are. Let me outline my analytical framework for the big picture (rather than individual stocks) then highlight the key lessons from this report which, it turned out, fit into the framework:

Kondratieff Cycles: back to the dawn (almost) of the Industrial Revolution in 1788 - nominal GDP, real GDP growth, inflation, debt, interest rates and the performance of the key asset classes – stocks, bonds, commodities, gold and real estate. I only know of one other person (Ian Gordon) on the planet who has modelled this in detail, although there may be others. Joseph Schumpeter, who never did say which two of his three goals in life he achieved (to be the greatest economist in the world, the best horseman in Austria and the greatest lover in all of Vienna), had this to say:

“The Kondratieff Wave is the single most important tool in economic forecasting.”

Unfortunately my model of the Kondratieff Cycle is SCREAMING depression and reduction in living standards.

The mechanics of the four great price waves during the last millenium: Medieval, the “Price Revolution” of the 16th to the first half of the 17th centuries, 18th century-early 19th century and the (rather important) current one;

Geopolitics: Mackinder’s Heartland theory, Brzezinksi’s “The Grand Chessboard”, Paul Kennedy’s “The Rise and Fall of Great Powers”, Project for the New American Century, and numerous works on the decline of the Roman Empire due to the startling parallels with the US (as documented in Thunder Road Report 23);

Demographics: like Harry S. Dent’s work on the predictable nature of consumer spending based on family formation pattern. The US birth rate peaked in 1961 (UK was similar) and peak earnings/spending of the average citizen is 48.5 years of age - as they say in America “you do the math”. The baby boomers’ kids will be coming out of college…!

Market interventions by the authorities: the Gold Cartel (the Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee - GATA - deserves immense recognition here), silver (Ted Butler likewise), equities via the President’s Working Group on Financial Markets and let’s not forget the Counterparty Risk Management Policy Group and the US Treasury Secretary’s gigantic slush fund, the Exchange Stabilization Fund. By the way, Bill Murphy’s Midas column on the Le Metropole Café website is the first thing I have read every day for six years and not just for gold.

Exter’s pyramid: a central banker who believed in sound money and his theory of capital flows in a major crisis is playing out right now. Speculative capital moves down through the credit instruments as, one by one, each credit instrument loses its “moneyness” – the last one being the US dollar/Treasury complex. The final destination is the only asset which doesn’t pay a yield – it doesn’t need to – it’s the ONLY one without counterparty risk in the biggest debt crisis in history.

The nature and history of money: I’m tempted to cite Francisco d’Anconia’s speech about money in Atlas Shrugged and Roy Jastram’s “The Golden Constant” - a key empirical study of how gold outperformed in both inflationary AND deflationary periods since the 16th century (although it neglects today’s Gold Cartel and that alogorithm which only allows gold to rise on “risk on” days);

The globalist agenda: NWO, CFR, Rhodes, Trilateral Commission, Bilderberg, Club of Rome, etc. Few people in the markets incorporate its impact despite: i) it is heavily documented; and ii) it provides the context for so many world events - which suddenly lose their apparent “randomness”;

Studying financial history mixed with pattern recognition with the above.

Without a framework with which you can see beyond the short term, it’s getting more and more like being a spectator at a tennis match. Look at the equity market recently, or gold and silver, where the prices have fallen as the banking system disintegrates. Markets are all over the place, as more and more holes in the dyke burst open.

The main lessons I learnt from this report are about SOCIALISM and its impact on financial markets. For example:

How far we’ve departed from the ideal of free-market capitalism and how far the Socialist takeover has advanced;

How the style of the Socialist takeover has elements of both the extreme left and the extreme right (“national”) on the political spectrum – not only making it harder to categorise, but also harder to see; and

What I think that this means for asset allocation.

Let’s take the last point and consider some of the key themes:

Socialism from the Left: government taking a greater share of GDP, lower living standards and debasement of currencies;

Combined with:

Socialism from the Right: government largesse and corruption with certain large corporate interests which serve the purposes of the state, military adventurism and a much more controlled society.

If it looks like a duck and quacks like a duck…

The source of this whole chain of events is inflationism and the debasement of currencies. As it unfolds, gold and silver increasingly become the critical assets to hold in order to safeguard capital. Currently, prices are being held down to hide the wreckage of the financial system and enable TPTB to load up. Market prices and demand for physical metal are temporarily disconnected. Going forward, essential items, like food and energy (especially crude oil) will account for a larger share of the “economic pie” as living standards decline and inflation increases. In contrast, items like luxury goods and diamonds (not a store of wealth) will suffer. I’m not planning on being short oil in 2012 as it strikes me as incredibly dangerous. The oil sector, along with defence, should benefit from the crossover of socialism from both the “left” and the “right” (military adventurism and the potential for conflict in the Middle East). Defence contractors are big beneficiaries of government contracts and lasting cuts to military spending rarely feature in declining empires. But of all the sectors which are “in bed” with governments, none come close to the major banks. However, I don’t care what happens to their share prices, EVERYTHING I have learnt as an analyst tells me not to touch them as investments. The accounting principles used for both the balance sheets and P&L accounts render them almost meaningless and that’s before taking account of OTC derivatives exposure and counterparty risk which can scarcely be imagined. You can’t even get close to analysing them properly and it’s legitimate to question whether professional investors managing money for pension funds, for example, should hold any major bank stocks at all?

PITY that what seems like an important message gets marginalized by ridiculous statements like 'the 2000 US election in FLA was fraudulent' (pg 25 of the linked PDF).

After recounts by dozens of entities (even far-left outlets like the New York Times, USA Today, and a number of University political science departments), this was never shown to be true. Bush won FL in 2000. No known legitimate study refutes that.

On its own, the report sniffs of sensationalism. Again, pity, because I believe the overall message is an important one.

Some of us believe in direct election of the President; that the candidate with the most votes should win. While the electoral college was understandable in horse and buggy days (an era of no electricity), it is not with modern technology.

So Al Gore was the choice of Florida’s voters -- whether one counts hanging chads or dimpled chads. That was the core finding of the eight news organizations that conducted a review of disputed Florida ballots. By any chad measure, Gore won.

Just thought you'd like to know. As memory serves, this story (not the one referenced, as all the real stories have been scrubbed from the web - 1984, anyone?) broke on September 11, 2001. Coincidence? Study harder. Don't be a tool.

Gene, we are all fore-armed. I'd rather be four-armed for what is coming up.

I can tell you, india is suffering from the biggest ostrich syndrome ever. Spending our way to msie...I mean happy-ness.

I think anyone can make a safe call to say that 2012 will be a rather un-stable year. Lot of downward pressure as long subdued vectors express themselves in asymmetric patterns and in asymmtric, explosive ways.

He writes pieces for KingWorldNews's blog. One he recently wrote stated he is sticking with gold and to get out of stocks completely. He also stated he feels sorry for the younger generation since they now have to contend with massive debts from past generations. He is blunt and to the point.

It's generally not wise to follow an ideology of someone who worshipped a sociopathic serial killer.

"Other people do not exist for him, and he does not see why they should," she wrote, gushing that Hickman had "no regard whatsoever for all that society holds sacred, and with a consciousness all his own. He has the true, innate psychology of a Superman. He can never realize and feel 'other people.'"

Great observation! There are so many very intelligent people on this site that have no idea how evil Rand was......it was Objectivisim that convinced Greenspan to derugulate and that markets would patrol themselves....pure idiocy born from the bowels of hell. As one of the seven deadly sins, Greed needed to be controlled.....now it is about to destroy us all. My moniker is an homage to the doomsday profit that resulted from Rand's influence on Greenspan and other powerful disciples of Randian philosophy. Her absolute disdain for those who believe in God is another testament to the evil that infected her every thought. Here she is spouting her evil on Donahue. Listen at 5:30 where she twists logic completely around to say it is evil to believe in God:

Read Griftopia about Rand and how Greenspan followed her beliefs in the free market. This commentary just reeks of elitist BS to try to scare the masses. There are a lot of things that are wrong in this world but to think we are headed for some sort of bizarre neo Nazi global regime is nuts. Stick to facts not hyperbole. Also Rand is nuts and those that followed her basically got us into this mess in the first place.

For you morons that think greenspan followed Ayn Rand philiopshy in his job at the fed you should take the time to read her and quit spouting off.

Greenspan, for the uninformed, knew objectivism. Objectivism shows that the root cause of the ills of our society is a result of a failed philopsohpy, altruism. Under altruism the collective good is valued over the good of the individual. Under the morality of altruism you have the right to take from one person and give to another person. This gives justification for wealth resdistribution in the form of taxes and inflation and saving too big to fail banks because we are "all in this together"

Greenspan was ne economist he had no interest in trying to change people's philosophy and realized that death/jail could come a knockin if he did (sword of democoles). He managed the crappy system the best he could, the fact is it is unmanageable. When the s*&^% was about to hit the fan he bailed on Rand by saying her philosophy failed as a means to distance himself from it.

0% interest rates have never been a part of Objectivism or capitalismtoo big too fail was never a part of objectivism or capitalism government power to the nth has never been a part of objectivism

She is and will always be a complete lunatic. She is the believer in black and white; you are a parasite or you are a creator. There is no grey in her world. In fact, Greenspan and Rand used to hang out together and talk about life. Rands books were influential in his thinking. When Greenspan wasn’t such a dick/free market capitalist she got angry at him and said, “I think Alan basically is a social climber.” Rand doesn’t believe in charity. If you use her reason, she is absolutely right all the time.

Altruism means for each his own even if it means stepping on those that got your there. This is the classic ideology that got us into this crap. Greed, 0% interest rates and TBTF was a byproduct of the Randian beliefs. They printed the money, allowed NoDoc Loans, securitized them and sold them as AAA paper. Everyone made money until the bill was footed by the tax payers. In a Randian sense, it doesn’t matter if you hurt the rest of us as long as you made money. Wall Street Banks are so big because it is their belief they do “God’s work”. They are the producers; we are just parasites to them. We feel the effects of altruism every day. This market is a bubble built on the false sense of entitlement by Randian followers.

"In a Randian sense, it doesn’t matter if you hurt the rest of us as long as you made money."

Sorry jackass but you are wrong

from Ayn Rand

"We, who live by values, not by loot, are traders, both in matter and in spirit. A trader is a man who earns what he gets and does not give or take the undeserved. A trader does not ask to be paid for his failures, nor does he ask to be loved for his flaws."

So did greenspan correctly identify the proper objectivist response to the questions/problems presented him? The problem is that ideals do not exist in a vacuum... and it's an all or nothing proposal... and, given some aspects of the concept could not ever be implemented, then we've got a problem.

If you're talking about deregulation, then I'll posit that the markets have always benefitted those who can lobby the best. We have deregulation in some aspects, but in others we have regulatory capture as well as an ability gap between the cats and the mice. Ultimately, the aspect to complain about in regards to greenspan's tenure is not deregulation, but the conscious decision to endlessly lever via unnaturally low interest rates and the conscious decision to avoid any wrangling of derivatives (presuming the last one was his call).

Deregulation is a misnomer... it's meant to entice you into the presumption that the system itself would or could be fair with government involvement... it cannot... it will always benefit those who lobby the best... and, further, the determination and observation necessary to ensure there is no hopelessly large wealth gap will always subside when we choose to elect representatives to do our thinking for us... we will rush to action and shed our apathy only after a crisis... when our comfort levels have come crashing back to reality. As always, the pound of cure is much harsher than the ounce of prevention.

PS, it is not evil to have disdain for theists... if so, then I suspect you are guilty of the same evil from your post.

Regulatory capture and deregulation are two sides of the same coin....seperated only by semantics. I'll agree that lobbying is an evil unto itself that must be purged from any just political system....an oxymoron, I know. You seem to have presented a veiled defense of Randian philosophy....how tragic. In the end good will be called evil and evil will be called good....I think we're near the end thanks to Ayn....and the only real question is was it by design?

I didn't think it was very veiled... but no particular philosophy/world view gets everything right... so I only adopt it in portions.

Ayn didn't really come up with anything new... just repackaged for alternative consumption. I think calling Rand the source of evil is naive at best. All she did was catalog human behavior. Granted, some of the conclusions are incorrect and/or lead to inequitable results... but separate the value statements out and you have some pretty intelligent observations... just like marx (again, laughable conclusions/solutions)... or anyone else for that matter.

Further, the end is merely the beginning... and happens time and time again. We bounce between collective and individual oriented systems while at the same time rarely gaining political aptitude or self-determination. The view only changes for the lead mule.

And no, the systems aren't designed per se... the difference between the haves and the have nots is that the haves understand the forces at play and front run them... all of the systems have built in lifespans... certain political and monetary actions cannot be recovered from... and propel systems towards their fate with the pinball bumper... and they all happen in increments. We just bounce back and forth and back and forth between the different systems depending on what collapsed the last time and/or what can be blamed the most conveniently (and thus rewrite history). The haves quickly turn into have nots when they disregard the natural flow of things and what self interest brings. Of course, that is not to say that the systems can't be gamed or sped up to benefit the few... but everything is not by design... the simple answer is that humans have no answer for a political or economic system that maintains some semblance of stasis.

Not sure if anyone comes back after a day to review comments but I agree with you. Deregulation for sure, its all political. On the wealth gap....I would say it has always existed but in times of stress everything hurts more, things are more pronounced. What greenspan believed or not we will never know, he may have ecnountered what many do when they enter higher government.....good luck changing it. It is a massive beast, with many moving parts/interests that combine in a sinister way so that no one is on the hook but the collective result is devasting (housing).

I can only imagine you must be speaking for yourself, since that virtue is very much alive in well in me and my circle.

The issue with forced charity is that not all are deserving of the same level . I might give an alcoholic bum a sleeping bag, food and a bunk somewhere, but IMO he doesn't deserve the same level of charity as a single widow with three kids. Or for that matter, a MOTHERFUCKING INVESTMENT BANKER.

The issue I have with people like you is that you assume that some faceless bureaucrat knows better who deserves charity in my neighborhood than I do. That's bullshit, plain and simple.

So you get to pick who lives and who dies....how omnipotent of you. Yes - everyone considers themselves to be completely charitable and that this will result in a better society if government simply left them to dole out their fortunes themselves - everything would be better. History proves otherwise - and any argument that holds personal greed as something to be admired and desirable is evil at its core.

Please re-read the previous post. My understanding is that the poster was saying each person should handle their own charitable giving, rather than having a government take money from people and have a beauracrat in an office somewhere decide who gets what, not that the poster should be the one deciding for everyone.

Basically, the argument is not pro-charity versus anti-charity, but rather independant giving versus forced redistribution by central planners.

If you can't recognize today's amerika for Rand's Amerika in Atlas Shrugged, then you have not read it. Wesley Mouch is Obama! socialize everything, do away with production and increase socialism for the betterment of all.

It is generally not wise to disregard everything an individual has ever said or written, because someone (rightly or wrongly) believes to have found a stain on her/his record.Doing so only encourages the mudslingers.

I do not disregard everything Rand has said or written, I disagree with a vast majority of it. She most definitely did write those words, and they are very significant to her ideology of objectivism. If you disagree, some salient points would be appreciated, instead of, as you say, 'mudslinging'.

Not sure how I could make salient points on your statements, as you have given close to none in the first place.

But your mention of "intelligence and sociopathy" in 1994962 seems to point to you believing her to be a sociopath. For which I never read the slightest coherent reasoning anywhere, talking about Ayn.

In the end it likely boils down that you believe "fairness" to be the highest good (more precise "fairness" in outcomes), and so capitalism -and in extension all forms of competition- are evil, as they inevitably produce winners and losers. Which would mean you commend the current central planners reign, as they are fervently trying to avoid to create any loser... but I'm just guessing your mindset here.

The (1 more than none*) statement which I asked you to respond to was - She most definitely did write those words, and they are very significant to her ideology of objectivism.

If you do not agree, why?

She commends him not for the act he has done, but rather for the complete lack of empathy while he went about his life . Some call it sociopathy, some call it antisocial personality disorder, and until 1980, this was called psychopathy. Empathy, by the way, is not just recognizing and sharing feelings with those that benefit you (family, friends, business associates), but rather the ability to recognize and share feelings with any sapient or semi-sapient being. Rand derides this notion, and that is why I believe her to be a sociopath.(Sociopaths are born, not made, and there is no known treatment, therefore, if she was a sociopath at age 21, most likely she was a sociopath at age 60)

Those who know me would identify me as a libertarian. I have never received a cheque from the government other than on a tax return, and I don't believe in "fairness in outcomes". I do, however, empathize with those around me, even those I do not know.

Btw, if you don't believe the central planners are trying to create winners and losers, then I question how much you have gained from reading this website.

But even as a libertarian you seem to believe in a thought-terminating knockout argument, or at least this is how you present it here. That doesn't fit together.

I do not want to spend time researching who exactly Hickman was, or what context those words were ripped out from...I have by far not seen enough indications that Ayn Rand generally and without exception derided any form of empathy. But her thoughts, or ideology if want to call it that, should not be taken word-by-word as the ultimate wisdom, just like any other source of intellectual stimulation!However she was a lot more right than wrong, and our current predicament is/was not caused by lack of empathy, but more by too much empathy-based thoughts (aka instant gratification / postponing the pain), clouding any rational reasoning. This does not in any way imply the road to heaven is getting rid of *all* empathy, however.

It's telling that you do not want to explore the subject of Rands thoughts on Hickman further. The quote is from 'The Journals of Ayn Rand'.

I have by far not seen enough indications that Ayn Rand generally and without exception accepted any form of empathy. Her (named by Rand herself) ideology of Objectivism does nothing to discourage sociopathy, and everything to promote it's value in society. "The pursuit of my own rational self interest and my own happiness is the highest moral purpose of my life" is an ethos many Randians repeat. And one that a sociopath would agree with.

A thought experiment-

A young woman is struck and killed while jaywalking. She had no right enter the crosswalk, and because of that poor decision, 3 young children are without a mother. What is your first reaction?

a) What a dumb bitch, that should teach her.

b)That's horrible, those children must be devastated.

Being honest with yourself, if you chose a, you are most likely a sociopath.

You are really a do-gooder in the self-elected guise of a libertarian, plus a propagandist who draws up everything as a black-white choice.

Let me answer directly from the document ZH linked to in the original post:

"But the United States in the universe of Atlas Shrugged is heavily dominated by an altruisticmoral code, which holds that an individual has no right to his life but must serve society. Underthis principle, the country is increasingly becoming a collectivist dictatorship in which individualsare right-less slaves of the state. [...]"

Have fun serving society, being the only allowed meaning to your life, dutifully accepted by you!