Per the Case-Shiller home prices are now trending down. So anyone saying home prices are at their lows are wrong. On top of that home prices have been heading lower for the last six months. Listen to those commercials if you want to - "Now is a great time to buy". Yeah right.

This is something new. Skew is a measure of tail risk. Similar to the VIX but uses otm options in its calculations. Only recently being offered by the CBOE (since 2/23/11). Waiting for them to add the historical data to the data feed. Usually ranges from 100 (normal) to 150 (high risk). The Skew is the histogram and the Vix is the black line.

83
comments:

...I haven't the slightest,not the slightest doubt that we will come to pass this amendment. Not now perhaps, and only after we've elected grasshopper after grasshopper. But, I would suggest within 5 years, this will be law. As Germany, Sweden, Australia continue to prosper with fiscally conservative laws and budgets, we will finally come to see the harsh facts...you must only spend what you bring in.

wow, doesn't this just sound wrong, as in not right, as in, how can this be good? From Yahoo finance:

"What could derail Trennert's forecast for U.S. stocks grinding higher? Not global unrest . . .[but if] governments currently printing money to goose their economies are forced to put the clamps on, it could lead to lower stock prices around the world."

I don't know, call me a rube, but WTF? Doesn't it just sound like a something from a Monty Python sketch: "you see if you print money, then we can all get rich!" LOL

2000, was, for all intents & purposes, the top of the bubble in equities... (Look at the dollar performance of PM's vs. equities since then)...

During the "naughts" (2000-just prior to the 2008 collapse), commodity prices rose, but as far as mainstream was concerned, it went unnoticed (because it was much more interesting to buy a house for no money down and obtain bundles of credit off of that)...

Livin' Large (on debt)...

After the credit collapse in 2008, commodities were the FIRST to rebound (november 2008 vs. March 2009 for the S&P when basically "mark to myth" became a reality for banks and Obama duly informed everyone that stocks had a good "PROFIT to earnings" outlook...

What has changed since then? Has the economy recovered on it's own?

No...

Are we out of debt?

No...

Is the debt situation even marginally better?

No...(in fact - it's a lot worse)

So there's no way to keep functioning without debt monetization (or conversely - crash the system)...

So the game right now is to find a convenient "scapegoat"...

If the FED goes ahead with QE3 (commodities rise faster [sooner])... If they WAIT, and the market 'corrects' for a few months, unemployment ticks up, misery indices rise, etc. then you can bet your bottom nickle that WASHINGTON will come out and BEG the Fed to do a QE3...

So that shifts the blame from the Fed to Washington DC...

Either way, the 'trajectory' of commodity prices (since 2000), would seem to suggest that the process is far from over (pausing only to refresh the BLAME elements connected to the political cycle)...

Further - what's MORE scary is to think that Chinese (& now Japanese) are no longer buying US debt... Instead, other countries are diversifying what USED to be dollar/debt purchases and instead buying PM's...

Despite what you hear on TV... Most Americans do not own substantial amounts of PM's...

Want to see?

OK... Go get a scale and weigh all your gold & silver (then check the spot prices)... Now compare that amount to your total net worth...

Or, a different way of looking at it would be to look at your annual salary, and make a calculation as to how much physical gold or silver you purchased in the past year...

If that number is under 20% - I'd say that in THESE times, you're behind the 8 ball...

Let's say that you made $100,000 last year... 20% of that is $20,000...

Did you buy $1,250 ounces of silver at $16 (got those 12 100oz silver bars in your safe)... Didn't think so... Lucky for you though, now that silver is $38, you only can buy 5 bricks (so you have lot's of room in the safe)...

Maybe you were REALLY smart and bought AAPL stock at $260 last year (and got around a 40% move in that)... Still holding? or did you cash out at the top (and pay taxes on that)...

Shame that the dollar is off 15% from it's value when you bought the AAPL at $260...

Should have just bought Apples (the fruits) which have practically doubled in cost since then...

But I'm sure you had the foresight and "grew your own" apples in your yard... Right?

Look AHAB - I'm not saying that these commodity prices don't look TOPPY here... But the long term "trend is your friend" (until Ron Paul gets elected POTUS)...

Anyhow, I am most amused by the apparent short term trending in the housing prices. Momentum, in my mind, was always something that can be found in speculative markets (e.g., securities markets). Certainly, there is a share of speculation in the housing market, but I would have expected frictional forces to be a lot stronger (i.e., people moving because of employment changes, retirement, etc.).

People are moving. But they're moving back to their parents home. So their home goes on the market. It is priced too high and doesn't sell. Eventually the price drops and it sells. But the new price may have been a 20%-40% discount.

People are moving. But they're moving back to their parents home. So their home goes on the market. It is priced too high and doesn't sell. Eventually the price drops and it sells. But the new price may have been a 20%-40% discount.

Hell - if that's the case (40% discount), it might make more sense for the PARENTS to take out a reverse mortgage on theirs, & "pay off" the nicer digs, and move in with the kids...

Just kidding, of course...

You can't really do it because you'd still have to maintain the taxes and insurance (now on 2 properties)...

But what I AM saying is... Don't put it past people to think of creative solutions (that certainly don't show up as statistics on central bankers forecasts)...

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Economists and investors worldwide will be paying extra close attention Thursday to a U.S. crop-planting forecast, looking for signs of relief from the tight food and fiber supplies now driving up prices from the grocery aisle to the clothes rack.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture report will show how many acres U.S. farmers intend to devote to corn, wheat, soybeans and cotton, commodities whose supply and price has future implications for apparel makers, food companies, meat producers and agriculture suppliers.

The "Prospective Plantings" report, released March 31 every year, is due out at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Thursday. The outlook will likely impact near-term trading in the commodities market until traders see how much crop farmers actually put in the soil this spring.

The report comes as agricultural commodities have soared over the last 12 months, led by an 82% pop in corn futures prices and a 142% jump in cotton. Along with rising energy costs, this has prompted many food and clothing companies to raise prices this year even as consumer spending is not back to pre-recession levels.

The Interim National Counsel's new military commander is Khalifa Hifter - "a former Libyan army colonel who spent nearly 20 years in Vienna, Virginia, not far from the Central Intelligence Agency in Langley."

http://atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/MC31Ak02.html

Nostradamus Quatrain II.24 mentions "Hister." In the original typeface, the s is elongated and skinny, more like an l or an f.

Do you know anyone that is bearish on gold? Anecdotal information: yesterday at my eleven years old kid soccer game all the kids mom`s were excited because today someone that comes from San Antonio (we are in Mexico) is coming to buy all the gold jewerly they do not use any longer. So according to the mom in charge of coordinating this event the buyer is a very serious person and he pays very good prices. So, all this ladies that have no clue about gold prices ( or finances at all) were just talking about all those jewerly pieces that are outdated and they are willing to sale and make a huge profit. So it seems, there are no gold sellers in Texas anymore, so they have to come 700 km south to the border to gather more gold they can resell later in USA. It seems a big bubble to me.

Treasury Sells $29 Billion In Bonds, Bringing Total Settled US Debt To 14.311 Trillion, More Than The Debt Ceiling

Now bear with us for a second: the most recently disclosed total debt was 14,211,567,662,931.23 as of March 28. This excludes the settlement of all of this week's auctions which amount to $35 + $35 + $29 billion (including today) or $99 billion. Adding the two amounts to $14,310,567,662,931.23. As a reminder the debt ceiling is $14,294,000,000,000.00. In other words, the total US debt just passed the debt limit - break out the Champagne! Granted there is a buffer of $52.2 billion between the total debt and the debt actually subject to the ceiling, meaning that America is not in default, yet. Therefore, the total debt subject to the limit assuming full settlement right now is $14,258,341,662,931. Which means the US is now $35.7 billion away from a bona fide breach of the debt ceiling. Yes, there are some caveats, and it is possible that there will be an accelerated redemption of bills over the next few days, pushing the total debt slightly lower, but readers get the idea.

this person: "..So according to the mom in charge of coordinating this event the buyer is a very serious person and he pays very good prices.."

is the Pimp/Herder..

these: "..So, all this ladies that have no clue about gold prices ( or finances at all) were just talking about all those jewerly pieces that are outdated and they are willing to sale and make a huge profit.."

Keep in mind that the VERY PURPOSE of "fractional reserve banking" is to create debt and mild inflation...

So a central banking cartel doesn't mind allowing BUBBLES to form here and there (think equities & housing)...

The ONE BUBBLE that they would fight "tooth & nail" against would be PRECIOUS METALS price inflation (because it would likely cause people to REJECT fiat currencies - thus eliminating their franchize)...

The only way central banks let THAT Pandora out of the box is when THEY THEMSELVES are the largest holders of that...

Luckily for them, they've discovered that they can PRINT THEMSELVES all the fiat they want to buy up all the supply...

It was even easier over the past decade (while sheeps were looking the other way and getting themselves into debt)...

Now they only have to crash the system periodically (to make it look like like it's not engineered)... By the time the 'sheeps' react now, they won't be able to afford the ENTRY FEE to accumulate enough of a stash...

You may be right short term and I am pretty sure you are long term. But in my experience, everytime a lot of outsiders start to enter a business field the bubble is in progress. The person who is going to buy the gold is another mom from San Antonio that she will resell for more fiat money. Maybe the final buyer knows what he is doing. If the moms were the buyers I would be shorting gold right now, but anyway it seems quite odd that gold buyers have to reclut all this outsiders to get their hands on gold. Besides I do not know a single gold bear. I still see many stock bears, treasury bears, etc but I just do not know any gold bear. Is everybody right this time?

For a while there has been a lot of talk about the possibility that american corporations can repatriate funds with some kind of tax exemption. I have not seen almost any trader talk about this situation. For me it is a great time to repatriate funds: dollar is cheap against any currency, so the corporations would be selling local currency at the top and getting cheap dollars. What are your thoughts regarding this issue? The american government is almost in bankrupt so new money would be more than welcome. If this materialize could be very dollar positive and for stocks whose main market is USA. Any ideas? Who is bullish on the dollar?

Post a Comment

Disclosure/Warning

This blog should not be interpreted as investment advice of any kind.The authors are NOT representing themselves CTAs or CFAs or Investment/Trading Advisor of any kind.The authors may or may not trade in the markets discussed.The authors may hold positions opposite of what may by inferred by this blog.The information contained in this blog is taken from sources the authors believes to be reliable, but it is not guaranteed by the authors as to the accuracy or completeness thereof and is presented here for information purposes only. Commodity trading involves risk and is not for everyone.

Fictional Character Quote of the Day:

I guess it comes down to a simple choice. Get busy living or get busy dying.

- Andy Dufresne

"The Shawshank Redemption"

About this Blog

This Blog's primary focus is on trading based upon technical analysis. It is run by "AmenRa" and "AndyT," quasi-anonymous traders who employ technical analysis to assess market conditions and trading opportunities. AmenRa utilizes 3LB techniques, Moving Averages and Fibonacci sequences. AndyT's analysis relies primarily on "Wave Theory" and Fibonacci sequences. The Comments Section is uncensored and open to the public. Please try and adhere to the "Blogger Policy."