Old 821

She was once called the Harnett County, the only US Navy ship to bear the name of that place. An LST built in late 1944, the USS Harnett County participated in the invasion of Okinawa and later transferred to what was once called the Republic of Vietnam as the My Tho. After the fall of Saigon the “My Tho was one of the flotilla of thirty-five Republic of Vietnam Navy ships that sailed for Subic Bay after the fall of Saigon in April 1975.” The ship’s new country, South Vietnam, was no more. But a new owner would take her. She was transferred to the Philippines on 5 April 1976, as the BRP Sierra Madre.

Then in 1999 the BRP Sierra Madre was deliberately run aground on the Ayungin reef by the Philippine government as an makeshift outpost to bolster its claim against China in the dispute over the Spratley Islands. It has sat there since, a flag in rust manned by a rotating contingent of 8 Philippine Marines.

In October the New York Times sent a news team to visit this naval curiosity. They found what they described as a “post-apocalyptic military garrison… struggling to survive extreme mental and physical desolation. Of all places, the scorched shell of the Sierra Madre has become an unlikely battleground in a geopolitical struggle that will shape the future of the South China Sea and, to some extent, the rest of the world.”

In order to get past the Chinese blockade round the vessel, the NYT team posed as fishermen on an motorized outrigger, and guided by a local mayor from Palawan Island, made the run past the Chinese warships to deliver the “cases of Coca-Cola and Dunkin’ Donuts” that have become part of the native cuisine of the Filipino race. Thus fortified, the marines showed the news team around the their ghostly command. The multimedia tour is worth the click on the link.

The Pride of the Navy

The State Department attempted to de-engage the parties by negotiating an agreement between the Philippines and China. Unfortunately their efforts were less than successful.

In June of last year, the United States helped broker an agreement for both China’s and the Philippines’s ships to leave Scarborough Shoal peacefully, but China never left. They eventually blocked access to the shoal and filled in a nest of boats around it to ward off foreign fishermen.

“Since [the standoff], we have begun to take measures to seal and control the areas around the Huangyan Island,” Maj. Gen. Zhang Zhaozhong, of China’s People’s Liberation Army, said in a television interview in May, using the Chinese term for Scarborough. (That there are three different names for the same set of uninhabitable rocks tells you much of what you need to know about the region.) He described a “cabbage strategy,” which entails surrounding a contested area with so many boats — fishermen, fishing administration ships, marine surveillance ships, navy warships — that “the island is thus wrapped layer by layer like a cabbage.”

There can be no question that the cabbage strategy is in effect now at Ayungin and has been at least since May. General Zhang, in his interview several months ago, listed Ren’ai Shoal (the Chinese name for Ayungin) in the P.L.A.’s “series of achievements” in the South China Sea. He had already put it in the win column, even though eight Filipino marines still live there. He also seemed to take some pleasure in the strategy. Of taking territory from the Philippines, he said: “We should do more such things in the future. For those small islands, only a few troopers are able to station on each of them, but there is no food or even drinking water there. If we carry out the cabbage strategy, you will not be able to send food and drinking water onto the islands. Without the supply for one or two weeks, the troopers stationed there will leave the islands on their own. Once they have left, they will never be able to come back.”

In response to the blockade the marine detachment subsisted by spearfishing on the reef. Although they provided for themselves in the manner of Robinson Crusoe, getting fresh vegetables remained a problem. The Chiangrai Times summarized the standoff:

The Philippine marines are occupying a former US tank-landing vessel, the BRP Sierra Madre, which was deliberately scuttled by the Philippine Navy on the shoal in 1999 an attempt to construct a small naval outpost on the cheap. The shoal, alternately known as Ayungin, Second Thomas, or Ren’ai in China, is located 105 nautical miles from the nearest island of the Philippines, Palawan. …

The rusted hull of the Sierra Madre has been occupied by Philippine marines for over a decade now. On average, 10 soldiers, armed with machine guns are stationed on the make-shift base, rotated out occasionally. The station exists for the sole purpose of staking the claim by the Philippines to the oil-rich and strategically-vital surrounding waters.

Over the course of ten years, the Sierra Madre has been gradually wasting away and if it is not shored up will sink into the South China Sea. The Philippine Armed Forces, at President Aquino’s instructions have begun carrying fresh construction supplies to the location, building a fresh platform over the decrepit framework.

And so the matter stood, until supertyphoon Haiyan took a hand. The gusting winds and monstrous seas cleared the entire area of the Chinese blockade as it did anyone with an iota of sense. By rights the old ship should have gone to straight to Davy Jones’ Locker, but when the Philippine Navy made a comms check with the 8 marines on the Sierra Madre, it was still there, presumably low on donuts but apparently none the worse for wear.

MANILA – Super typhoon Yolanda has sent home Chinese maritime and Navy vessels at the Ayungin Reef in Palawan, while the half a dozen Philippine Marines on board a rusting and grounded World War II-era ship are safe, a source told InterAksyon.com.

This effectively ends the standoff between the two countries some 100 nautical miles from the island of Palawan. …

“They’re safe,” said a senior officer of the Philippine Marines guarding the reef on board the shipwreck BRP Sierra Madre (Landing Ship Tank 57). The Philippine Marine official requested that he not be named because he is not authorized to give any statement regarding operational activities in the West Philippine Sea.

The Chinese will soon be back. But for now, old 821 is still there.

As the Harnett County, “LST-821 earned one battle star for World War II service. Additionally, Harnett County earned nine battle stars, two awards of the Presidential Unit Citation, and three awards of the Navy Unit Commendation for the Vietnam War.” Who could have guessed when she was laid down in September, 1944, that having survived the Pacific War and Vietnam, she would would still be in service, the pivot of a geopolitical struggle in the South China sea nearly 70 years later.

Update: People have asked how to donate money to the typhoon victims. Here’s a link to Caritas Manila, which is basically the relief agency of the Catholic Church. There’s also the local Red Cross, which takes Paypal in addition to credit cards.

Did you know that you can purchase some of these books and pamphlets by Richard Fernandez and share them with you friends? They will receive a link in their email and it will automatically give them access to a Kindle reader on their smartphone, computer or even as a web-readable document.

Just had a report on FNC from Tacloban. The word in the street is “The Americans have returned.” Two C-130’s loaded with relief supplies have landed and U.S. Marines are on the ground.

Not to worry, people of the third world. I am sure that the PRC, the Saudis, the Iranians, the Russians, in fact, all those stepping into the big shoes left behind by the vanishing Hegemon will be just as kind, just as generous, just as competent, just as uninterested in their personal gain, as were the Americans.

And should you flee your benighted lands to their abundant shores you will be just as welcome, just as free, and have just as much opportunity as you would have in the USA.

Maj. Gen. Zhang Zhaozhong is the perfect face for China. A bully, a sneak, arrogant, and inexperienced in real conflict, he is willing to starve his victims but less eager to risk a real fight. Now that the smirk has been wiped of his face he is more likely to start shooting.

Have efforts been made to supply the garrison by air? Shades of Berlin, would the Chinese shoot? The Philippines need submarines. Half a dozen modern Air Independent Propulsion boats would keep the PLAN out. The same goes for Vietnam. A reestablished American logistics station at Clark or Cubi Point as well as at Cam Ranh would pay enormous dividends. They would not need to be full bases. A presence would demonstrate support and have an emotional as well as practical impact. As Napoleon said, "The moral is to the physical as three to one."

Those Filipino marines deserve a salute. Someone should make a movie about this.

How would the United States have acted to a Chinese effort to smother our impoverished ally with a "cabbage strategy" in the years BC, that is Before Clinton? We probably would have sent a flotilla full of supplies over, along with a team to refurbish the old LST until it gleamed. Then for good measure we would have built a new platform with air conditioning. For a final measure we could have hosted a conference on the spot to settle claims and establish mutual defense with Australia, The Philippines, Vietnam, Indonesia, Singapore, Malaysia and Taiwan.

It is poetic that China is being checked by the poorest of her potential victims.

The Typhoon must have devastated Hainan Island off the Gulf of Tonkin. The last communist conquest before Tibet was in the dangerous semicircle as the storm marched North.

From chapter XVII "The History of the Peloponnesian War" by Thukydides.

"Athenians. For ourselves, we shall not trouble you with specious pretences- either of how we have a right to our empire because we overthrew the Mede, or are now attacking you because of wrong that you have done us- and make a long speech which would not be believed; and in return we hope that you, instead of thinking to influence us by saying that you did not join the Lacedaemonians, although their colonists, or that you have done us no wrong, will aim at what is feasible, holding in view the real sentiments of us both; since you know as well as we do that right, as the world goes, is only in question between equals in power, while the strong do what they can and the weak suffer what they must."(additional emphasis added)

The Athenians were wrong. Strength is not a bad thing. Success attracts both enmity and support. Greatness can be good and lead to growth. But growth founded on what is seen as an illegitimate claim is a house built on sand. It is supported merely by momentum, which is to say by inertia. When checked it implodes.

In the long run we are all dead but a nation should aspire to live longer. It should base its' claims on something less base than a transient superior force. China's claims are based on what?

1. As strong as China is, they is not as strong as they appear. Economically they are in deep doo doo, which will become more apparent as the world recession continues. 2. Face is everything, China tends to take ill considered risks in service of saving face. 3. Every act of resistance that China's neighbors enact is a drain on China's resources. It may be the case that a swarm of Liliputians will have the same effect on China as the arms race with the US had on the Soviet empire. 4. China cannot ignore the area as a huge part of her energy supplies and trade move through that corridor. By committing to a strategy of military dominance rather than cooperation China is committed to spend resources there playing a perpetual game of whack-a-mole. 5. I would hesitate to underestimate the Philippines, once their blood is up they are a race of doughty warriors.

However, none of those five points you made will prevent a major Asian war from breaking out. In fact, one could argue that the economic and demographic pressures on China could push her to aggressive military moves.

To cite one history, Japan was ill-advised to attack Pearl Harbor and the USA. The USA's ability to produce both men and material dwarfed anything Japan could have produced by multiple factors. Japan made assumptions based on what the Emperor and military leaders expected of the USA. They had their reaons (e.g. oil, logistics, saving face, etc.), but they miscalculated - badly. Yet, Japan made a vigorous fight of it, but their effort was probably doomed from the start. No matter how the war went, Japan wasn't going to be able to pressure the USA mainland enough to prevent the USA from putting over 30 aircraft carriers to sea (plus 100 smaller ones), and 100,000 birds in the air.

Similarly, China could miscalculate the "cost-benefits" of an aggressive, territory grabbing military campaign, but they may do it just the same. In fact, given their frenzied investment in the PLA build up, it would be unwise to expect the Chinese to be anything other than aggressive and "adventurous". Their build-up isn't to retain Mongolia, reacquire Taiwan, or defend themselves from the Vietnamese or Koreans. They have real, long term, expansive strategic objectives that are "win/lose" in nature.

In particular, I appreciate comment #5. I'm not selling anyone short, particularly not the Filipino's. However, would the Philippines be willing to undergo a second Bataan, Corregidor, and Battle of Manila for the sake of a few small,uninhabited islands?

Juxtaposed, selling short and Japan: I would posit the question of what China will do if Japan threatens to re-militarize in a serious way, not only nukes but carriers and other offensive weapons. Given the Chinese experience of living under the kind hand of the Japanese during WWII, I would think it would freak the Chinese out. They could go for a first strike against Japan before Japan's increased offensive/defensive systems were on-line.

Asia is a tinderbox, not as hot as the Middle East, but give Commander Barrak a bit more time, and he'll have Asia red hot, too.

Totally agree that China is in an aggressive and expansive phase of her history, and will use military force to those ends. And, yes, wherever China decides to plunge the spear they will have overwhelming force when they attack. However, that does not mean that all resistance will cease at that point, quite the contrary. May I remind you of the China-Vietnam dust up of 1978? As well, experience has shown that China will be no more tender to her empire's subjects than Japan was.

Yes, well, the article says we can deny China area by arming region with lots of anti-ship missiles with 100-200km range. Perhaps. My fear has always been that China would choose to produce thousands or tens of thousands of just such missiles, a medium-tech product they can handle, which by sheer volume could overwhelm any US fleet defense - if they can only launch them.

Still, even that costs money, and you know what, sheer thrift (to simplify politely) probably keeps China from any such effort. Why, you could build an entire city for the kind of money that many missiles would cost, but then to just have all that spent money sitting there, unused, well, er, um, yeah.

"If they want to sustain national sovereignty, they'll have to pay the price. If not, they'll have to cut the best deal as a vassal state with the least oppressive protector. They chafed at US dominance, which was real but also pretty benign and contributory. Would they be happier to become a colony of China or Japan?

Honestly, I don't see many other options for these countries if China decides not to be a nice, benign international citizen."

OldSaltUSN has, IMO just pointed out what the collapse of Pax Americana means for the rest of the world. The Pax Americana, at base represented the rule of law. Obama's intentional destruction of the Pax Americana will result in a world in which less strong nations face the necessity of choosing to either 'pay the price' necessary to sustain national sovereignty or cutting "the best deal as a vassal state with the least oppressive protector".

The alternative to 'the rule of law' is 'might makes right'. There are no other options.

The Best Pacific Rim strategy the US could muster together would be, IMHO, to build an international coalition to supply affected Asian nations with fast attack craft, anti-shipping missiles and attack subs supplied by Germany. Equip and train on the down low with international partners. The fast attack boats could patrol littoral waters and the diesel subs could make forays into international waters keeping tabs on the Chinese fleet. Industrialized nations like Australia and New Zealand could keep the coalition up with G2 on fleet movements using conventional naval, air and HALE UAV maritime surveillance.

The bottom line such actions would not directly threaten the PLAN but would keep its fleet surrounded by hit and run shooters with nowhere to run but home. The same strategy could do the same for North Korea in case they want to get into the action.

to build an international coalition to supply affected Asian nations with fast attack craft, anti-shipping missiles and attack subs

I'm not sure that would work. A US "presence" used to come with assumptions about what the USA could and would do should the hostile entity decide to escalate. If the P.I. did have the subs and PT boats, plus a minimal amount of competent air power, what would they do if China decided to be more emphatic about planting the flag. For example, the PLA could board this hulk, forcibly evict the P.I. Marines, return them to Manila via commercial air or air freight (depending upon how much they resisted), tow the hulk out to sea and sink it, probably within the space of about 8 hours. Does the Philippines President order subs to launch torpedos? Does China in turn sink those attacking subs and order an punitive air strike on critical P.I. airports and harbors? China could choose to escalate as much or as little as they cared, and my guess is that in the end, the P.I. sues for peace early and China gets whatever islands she feels she has a right to, and probably much more.

Japan might be a little tougher nut to crack, but only because no one truly knows how the Japanese self-defense force would stand up. China could be looking at heavy retaliation from Japan, possibly even nukes (who knows for sure).

As I said in another post, the core principle of national sovereignty is the ability and willingness to defend it. My guess is that with 5000 islands to defend and no money, the Philippines will be willing to compromise at about 4080 islands.

Now, if as you suggested, the ACEAN countries +Japan +Australia formed a viable military alliance, the situation could be different. However, I don't see the kind of unity that would be required. Plus, the Warsaw pact had Russian and Nato had the USA as the backbone of those respective alliances. Without Russian and the USA, the Warsaw and Nato alliances would be far less credible. Which country would serve as the backbone of a ACEAN military alliance? Japan could if she re-militarized. Australia could. Neither of those two countries are even in ACEAN.

I don't see a realistic solution for the P.I., except to pull their collective heads from their dark places and aggressively pursue an renewal of their alliance with the USA. However, an alliance with the USA isn't the same thing as it was back then, and I can't see any political force in the USA that would be willing to re-engage in the P.I.; i.e. the Philippines slammed that door shut with gusto, and anyone American politician that once gave a damn about it is long since gone.

This sort of conjecture reminds me of the static analysis of the Peak Oil crowd, who think that demand remains constant, and the only variable affecting price is supply, which only goes down. They fail to take into account there are feedback loops built into the thing, where high prices send a signal to venture capitalists to fund things like horizontal drilling and fracking, which brings supply back up. In your case of China, you are assuming that the markets for their cheap-ass Walmart crap will remain unaffected by their bellicosity. If they tear off a piece of the Philippines why would the world idly stand by? Remember Kuwait, 1991? Sanctions do eventually bite, as Iran can attest.

This is exactly the reason that the PRC has to move with care. They have too big a stake in the world economic system to blow it by overly aggressive moves.

However, as their corrupt and centrally managed economy winds further down, they might get desperate. The first order of business of their government is the preservation of power of the party "leaders."

"If they tear off a piece of the Philippines why would the world idly stand by? Remember Kuwait, 1991? Sanctions do eventually bite, as Iran can attest."

Are you serious? The 'world' will do NOTHING beyond futile verbal protests if China tears off a piece of the Philippines. As for Kuwait 1991...George HW Bush, the world's oil pricing threatened and Saudi Arabia's sudden advancement to the top of Saddam's 'territorial opportunities' list is why the 'world' reacted. The 'sanctions' have had ZERO effect upon Iranian nuclear ambitions.

The sanctions have had such a dire effect on Iran that Bibi is scared out of his wits that they're about to be lifted in return for insufficient promises from the mullahs. And the mullahs, in turn, are actually talking to the Great Satan.

I was thinking about something a little more in the plausible deniability range. The US can and Japan may hold up against the PLAN but short of world war it is not in their interests to square off. I was thinking of something more akin to a naval insurgency, where any engagement would be of guerilla tactics, in other words, ambush and evade. The Philippines would be crazy to attack the Chinese navy but outside of their contested waters in other areas of operations, in international waters might be different story, especially if every non-aligned nation had similar assets for asymmetric naval warfare.

I am thinking of fast attack craft as a threat much as they are used by the Iranians in the Persian Gulf with the effect of keeping US forces on their toes. They just harry the US Navy there so far. Diesel subs on the other hand could conceivably torpedo PLAN surface combatants and evade pursuit. I may be grossly underestimating Chinese anti-submarine capabilities but assume that they’d be very vulnerable out in the contested waters they deem to own. If they own them, let them secure them first.

Insurgency, proxy warfare, and the tacit understanding that the US will muster its might to keep the sea lanes open if it should come to that.

I am thinking of fast attack craft as a threat much as they are used by the Iranians in the Persian Gulf with the effect of keeping US forces on their toes. They just harry the US Navy there so far.

Doubt the Chinese vis-a-vis smaller Asian nations will play by the same rules as the U.S. Navy. (Heck, even the French don't play by our rules.)

If you play with the Chinese, you'd better be able to back it up in a big way. We do things under the guise of plausible-deniability (been there, done that, etc.), but we're not worried about Libya or Syria or Yemen lobbing missiles at US soil. Should a country such as the Philippines give China a black eye using say, a limpet mines, and China tracks it back to the source, there'd be hell to pay.

Whatever. The only way the Philippines can demonstrate their seriousness of purpose is to unleash the P.I. economic potential by rolling back Socialism and the Crony-Capitalist economy (quite a combination!), and building a strong, middle-class driven economy, and then building the military that Filipino's deserve to have. If Japan and Korea can rebuild from nothing in 20 to 30 years, there's no excuse for the Philippines to remain a 3rd world economy 70+ years after independence.

If they want to sustain national sovereignty, they'll have to pay the price. If not, they'll have to cut the best deal as a vassal state with the least oppressive protector. They chafed at US dominance, which was real but also pretty benign and contributory. Would they be happier to become a colony of China or Japan?

Honestly, I don't see many other options for these countries if China decides not to be a nice, benign international citizen.

Just had a report on FNC from Tacloban. The word in the street is “The Americans have returned.” Two C-130’s loaded with relief supplies have landed and U.S. Marines are on the ground.

Not to worry, people of the third world. I am sure that the PRC, the Saudis, the Iranians, the Russians, in fact, all those stepping into the big shoes left behind by the vanishing Hegemon will be just as kind, just as generous, just as competent, just as uninterested in their personal gain, as were the Americans.

And should you flee your benighted lands to their abundant shores you will be just as welcome, just as free, and have just as much opportunity as you would have in the USA.

The Chinese are screwing the pooch. Already, every less-powerful country in the area is quietly bulking up their navies and air forces, and telling the Yankees NOT to go home. In China this is called Tao. In India, it is called Karma. In the US, it is called the Law of Unintended Consequences.