Thursday, October 27, 2011

Statistically Speaking: Illinois Edition

Here are the stats from the NCAA website for PSU and Illinois coming into this weekend:

NCAA Stats Comparison

Category:

Penn St.

Illinois

Delta

Rushing

50

23

-27

Passing Offense

84

72

-12

Total Offense

76

45

-31

Scoring Offense

89

64

-25

Rushing Defense

19

19

0

Turnovers Gained

13

42

29

Passes Had Intercepted

48

48

0

Pass Defense

14

21

7

Net Punting

95

102

7

Punt Returns

79

116

37

Kickoff Returns

20

118

98

Turnover Margin

27

74

47

Fumbles Recovered

46

46

0

Passes Intercepted

6

44

38

Fumbles Lost

74

102

28

Turnovers Lost

66

90

24

Passing Efficiency

98

31

-67

Pass Efficiency Defense

5

42

37

Total Defense

8

10

2

Scoring Defense

5

15

10

Fewest Penalties Per Game

27

17

-10

Fewest Yards Penalized Per Game

31

15

-16

Punt Return Yardage Defense

71

53

-18

Kickoff Return Yardage Defense

73

100

27

Offense Third-down Efficiency

73

13

-60

Offense Fourth-down Efficiency

4

118

114

Defense Third-down Efficiency

35

18

-17

Defense Fourth-down Efficiency

82

82

0

Tackles for Loss

25

6

-19

Offense Tackles for Loss

5

70

65

Pass Sacks

23

8

-15

Pass Sacks Allowed

14

106

92

Time of Possession

33

20

-13

First Downs

73

45

-28

First Downs Allowed

13

14

1

Red Zone Efficiency

87

34

-53

Red Zone Efficiency - Defense

117

44

-73

Average NCAA Rank:

46.16

51.00

4.84

Weighted Avg. Rank:

47.50

43.17

-4.33

The disparity between the straight up stats and the "weighted" stats, where key categories such as total offense or defense are given more weight than categories like fewest penalties per game, is again apparent this week.

Purdue was better in weighted stats than actual straight stats. Northwestern was worse. Illinois is again better when the stats are weighted. Does that mean anything?

Well, the Illini lost to Purdue, whom we beat, and neither Northwestern or Purdue could win the most points on the scoreboard stat.

But neither of those teams was as close in the defensive categories to Penn State as Illinois is. Pass efficiency defense is the only major defensive category that Illinois is not within 10 rank points or less of matching PSU. Illionois leads PSU in all major offensive categories by at least 12 rank points.

We are very poor on third down efficiency on offense; Illinois is considerably better.

Overall, weighted or not, the two teams are closely matched on paper.

Penn State is favored by 5 in what appears to be a defensive clash. And the weather appears to be cold and wet . . .