What Can Aluminum Producers Expect in 2018?

Metal News - Published on Mon, 25 Dec 2017

Previously, we discussed the different factors that could impact China’s aluminum industry next year. In this part, we’ll analyze how the US aluminum industry (DIA) (DJIA-INDEX) could play out in 2018.

On the supply side, Alcoa’s (AA) Warrick plant is expected to come online partially in 2Q18. The smelter’s restart would add to the aluminum supply in the US market. Looking at US aluminum demand, the dynamics look positive as things stand today.

Meanwhile, US aluminum producers could look forward to some support from the Trump Administration next year. Earlier in the year, President Trump ordered a Section 232 investigation to probe to determine if aluminum imports threaten US national security. A similar probe was ordered into steel imports as well. While the steel imports probe has been in the headlines, the aluminum probe hasn’t attracted much attention. While market expectations aren’t very high from the aluminum imports probe, it will still be interesting to analyze the findings of the Section 232 probe next year.

Recently, the US Department of Commerce initiated a probe into aluminum sheet imports from China. Protecting US manufacturing from cheap imports was among President Trump’s key pre-election planks. However, aluminum tariffs could be tricky compared to steel. Canada accounts for the biggest chunk of US aluminum imports (S32) (RIO). Europe is among the leading aluminum exporters to the US with companies like Century Aluminum (CENX) having plants in Iceland.