Expectations

"I am ashamed to say it ... and yet it's no worse to say it than to think it. You call me a lucky fellow. Of course, I am. I was a blacksmith's boy but yesterday; I am - what shall I say I am - today?"

- Pip, (Charles Dickens’ Great Expectations)

Preamble

The foreshortened interval between weeks (due to the Labor Day holiday) conspired with the so-called work-life see-saw to see to it that this posting is at least a day later than hoped, and also includes only FPI and S&P+ results (i.e. no Power Rank data). So, keep that in mind should you care to read on, particularly in regard to Ohio State numbers. Otherwise, I’m just posting this for the record and to provide a point of reference for the week 2 update.

Overall Wins Spin Up

With one week now concluded (and week two updates pending), the fancy-stats algorithms can now spit out slightly more meaningful analyses based on the objective (if not deterministic) statistics generated from actual game play. The rub at this juncture of course is that the statistics are not of the greatest quality for the purposes of predicting future performance for various reasons, not the least of which is the small sample size. The exercise of coming up with more reasons for ignoring these early season statistics are left as an exercise for the reader in the comments below. That said, it doesn’t stop the publication of the statistics such as they are. Nor does it preclude the further rumination on said statistics into still more statistics as a means to enable further discussion, jumping to conclusions, flying off of the handle or goading your rival.

Schedules, Spreads & Win Probabilities

Since we’re still in the midst of the glorious non-conference segment of the season, it’s a good time to jump back and review the overall schedules, but now with the updated albeit arguably flawed statistics applied.

Note that in the following table of schedules, the applied Red-Green color-map accentuates the forecast point spreads and win probability of each game. A color-shift toward the red corresponds to a more likely loss, and a green shift indicates a more likely win. Also, the colors for both columns are mapped to the win probability number. The sequence of individual win probabilities over the course of a team’s schedule are then used to compute the distribution of total expected wins for the entire season.

B1G East Schedule Rundown

The following two tables of schedules shows the overall schedules for all seven teams in the B1G East based on S&P+ and FPI week 1 results. The last table simply shows a rank-ordering of the B1GE teams based on their expected in-conference win totals - it’s not a projection of divisional standings based on projected wins, losses, and tie-breakers.

S&P+ Results

Oh, what a fickle friend is fancy stats. It appears with this new season is that the love affair that had previously existed between S&P+ and our beloved Wolverines appears to have shifted to the Buckeyes. OSU is the only team that is favored in all of its games. The other two contenders - Penn State and Michigan - are underdogs, respectively, in one and three games apiece. Three others - Indiana, Michigan State and Maryland - are on the bubble of bowl eligibility. Last and least, LOLRutgerz resumes its position as the eternal bottom-feeder.

In the aggregate, Ohio State leads the B1GE with about 10.4 expected wins, about 0.8 better than Michigan and Penn State, who show in near identical expected win totals. The Buckeyes are the only team with a double-digit expected win total. PSU maintains a better position in terms of the lumpiness of its distribution, in that most of its loss likelihood is lumped into a single game: at Ohio State. edging Ohio State for the top spot by just over 1.4 wins. Nearly 2 full games separate Ohio State from the next 2 teams, PSU and MSU.

FPI Results

The FPI results differs considerable from those of S&P+, the most notable difference that Penn State has a solitary hold on the #2 spot. OSU still tops all teams in the B1GE with just over 11 expected wins, now ahead of PSU by a cool 1.1 expected wins. FPI results show U-M pulling up a bit short of 9 expected wins. Similar to S&P+, OSU is the only team that is favored in all of its games. The other two contenders - Penn State and Michigan - are underdogs, respectively, in one and three games apiece. FPI has the same teams on the bowl-eligibility bubble, just in a different order: Maryland, Indiana and Michigan State. FPI concurs that LOLRutgerz belongs at the bottom.

B1G East Expected Conference Wins Distributions

The bar plots below show the expected total overall wins distributions for teams in the B1G East, in alphabetical order. Noted above each bar is the probability for that number of wins (you may need to click & embiggen to read it). The bar with the highest value is the most likely outcome (the mode). Also flagged on each plot is the expected overall win total (the mean). The last line plot is just an overlay of the same data from the other seven bar plots.

S&P+ Results

This opening round of S&P+ distributions show a bit of logjam among the three teams at the top. In fact, the Michigan and PSU distributions are nearly indistinguishable, which is of course a shift from the pre-season chart before Michigan dismantled Florida and erased a good chunk of its expected loss component. Likewise, Indiana and Michigan have very similar S&P+ distributions, with modes of 6 wins, compared to a 5-win mode for Maryland. The next opportunity for Michigan to effect a significant shift in its mode will be in its matchup with Indiana, the week before it goes head-to-head with Penn State in Happy Valley. Should OSU drop its upcoming matchup with Oklahoma (which it has done as of this posting), then OSU would drop in to a similar mode as Michigan and PSU heading into conference play. As of now, the likelihood of OSU having an undefeated season stands at 15% 0%, followed by Michigan and PSU at about 4%.

FPI Results

The FPI results show a more clear separation among the contenders, with OSU have a solitary hold on the 11-win mode with a strong lean toward an undefeated season. The OSU distribution also shows a very tight variance, which means its loss components are concentrated in fewer games than most other teams. As for PSU, it has a strong 10 win likelihood, with a slight lean toward 11 wins. Meanwhile, Michigan is holding onto the 9-win mode, but still with a strong lean toward 8 wins.

From there, a 3 win gap separates the next closest teams, Maryland and Indiana, both with modes of 6 wins, and Sparty lagging one behind at 5 wins. Remarkably, MSU is only one win ahead of LOLRutgerz. MSU at LOLRutgerz to close the the season - the Slobber-Knocker of Self-Loathing - is shaping up to be another instant BTN Classic.

B1G West Schedule Rundown

The next two tables of schedules shows the overall schedules for all seven teams in the B1G West based on S&P+ and FPI week 1 results. Again, the last table in each figure simply shows a rank-ordering of the B1GW teams based on their expected win totals - it’s not a projection of divisional conference standings per se.

S&P+ Results

In the B1G West, the S&P+ results show the Badgers maintaining a strangle-hold on the top position and in sense are in contention with only themselves for the B1GW title. Indeed, the Badgers are the only team in the West expected to win all of its games, with its toughest matchup being when Michigan comes to Camp Randall. At that point, the Badgers may well have already locked up its bid to Indy. With a margin in excess of 3 expected wins over the next closest competitors, Nebraska and Northwestern, an invitation to the B1GCG in Indy seems nearly a foregone conclusion. Meanwhile, Iowa and Minnesota are both within a game of Nebraska and Northwestern, which makes for a very full bubble of teams vying for bowl eligibility. Sunk on the bottom are the dregs of the West, Illinois and Purdue, who can only hope that recent coaching changes may precipitate a change in the status quo.

FPI Results

The FPI results for the B1G West show the Badgers maintaining an even tighter strangle-hold on the top position than does S&P+, at nearly 10.8 expected wins. With an expanded margin excess of 3.2 wins over next-best Northwestern, the Badgers only risk may be stooping to the level of its competition. As with S&P+, FPI expects the Badgers toughest match will be when it hosts Michigan, yet even then the Badgers are favored by a margin of 9 points. Iowa lags the ‘Cats by another 1.2 at 6.7 expected wins, with Nebraska and Minny closing out the bubble teams. Remaining anchored on the bottom are Purdue and Illinois.

B1G West Expected Conference Wins Distributions

S&P+ Results

This opening round of S&P+ distributions graphically illustrates the separation between the Badgers and the next tier of teams, who would appear to be contending more for a quality bowl invitation than for the B1GW title. The Badgers come in at the 10-win mode, but that is practically even with the 11-win mode. Nebraska and Northwestern have nearly indistinguishable distributions with with a 7-win modes that lean toward 8 wins. A game back from there are Iowa and Minnesota.

Wisconsin has one of the best prospects for an undefeated season in the entire B1G at nearly 13%. No other team in the B1GW has a chance.

FPI Results

The story from FPI is much the same as that from S&P+, particularly in regard to the Badgers, just with a bit more emphasis. FPI has a similar separation between the Badgers 11-win mode and the next-best ‘Cats’ 8-win mode. FPI does distinguish between the ‘Cats and the third best Hawkeyes at the 7-win mode. From there, the Huskers and Gophers each occupy the next lower modes (6 wins and 5 wins, respectively).

Likewise per FPI, Wisconsin has one of the best prospects for an undefeated season in the entire B1G at more than 26%. No other team in the B1GW has a chance.

Overlay Redux

Just to wrap things up with a quick visual summary, here are the combined overlays of the total wins probabilities broken out by division, sized for download and quick-reference on your smarty-pants phone.

S&P+ Results

FPI Results

After returning back from the game last night, I preceded to watch the game tape of yesterday's 36-14 win over Cincinnati. I'm not going to do a detailed review and we will all wait for this week's UFR, but here are a few of my observations:

1.) Wilton Speight was actually pretty good yesterday and certainly better than against Florida. At the game I had the feeling that Speight was atrocious and that was certainly the thought of many other fans. But reviewing the film, he had only two blatant overthrows, both to DPJ. At the same time he delivered some bullets, the deep bomb to Crawford, the one on 4th down, the touchdown to Perry. Other throws that were incomplete were mostly tight coverage with no one really open, hard to blame him. Overall, his stat line was 17/29 with a few throwaways. He still needs to improve and have better consistency but in no way was he atrocious. I believe UFR will agree with me.

2.) Mike McCray was really, really bad. He has to be more hurt than we think he is. He looked slow, but even worse his head really wasn't in the game. There were two incompletions where McCray and the CB (one time Hill, the other Watson) miscommunicated and no one covered a receiver but the QB just missed the throw. That happened another time and it produced a first down. Twice McCray was asked to cover a speedy back running a route and twice he got burned. First on a wheel route for a 20 yard gain and the other where he was forced to hold the jersey on 3rd down, giving the Bearcats a fresh set of downs. And then there's the long QB keeper, where McCray bites completely on the RB in the read option, and doesn't cover the whole, letting Moore pick up a monster gain.

3.) Nolan Ulizio had a much better game. Yes, this was Cincy and not Florida, and yes he did give up a sack and get an unsportsmanlike conduct flag, but as a whole he didn't blow nearly as many assignments and was pretty solid in run blocking. It was a nice step forward and should help build his confidence.

Not all victories are created equal. Coming off the high from beating Florida last week, beating Cincinnati 36-14 felt almost like a loss. The thrill of victory and agony of defeat are infinitely sensitive to a host of factors about Michigan, its opponent, and how the season is going.

This raises an interesting puzzle: How should we measure the satisfaction (or dissatisfaction) we feel after a game, or a season?

The most obvious metric is wins and losses. But as readers of this blog can probably all agree, all 9-win seasons are not created equal. A 9-win season with wins against MSU, ND, and OSU and a Big Ten Championship, for example, would feel a lot better than a 9-win season with losses to MSU and OSU and no championship. A season in which the team outperforms expectations certainly feels better than one in which the team underperforms. And a season that ends with a bowl victory rather than a loss is certainly more agreeable to think back on during the offseason. Clearly we need something that does a better job accounting for fact that some games matter more than others. In other words, we need to be able to more precisely measure the emotional impact of specific wins and losses.

One way to create a fan satisfaction index would be to make some assumptions about what kind of wins and losses feel particularly good or particularly bad, and then create some kind of point system. A win against a cupcake might be worth 5 points, while a win against a rival might be worth 50 points. A loss against a top-ranked foe might be worth -10 points, while a loss to an archrival at home might be worth -100 points.

This process might be a good way to go back and rank past seasons, but there is an even better way to measure satisfaction for the current season: just ask people!

Thus the Michigan Fan Satisfaction Index is born. The research methodology is straightforward: I will post a two question survey after every game asking fans how they felt about the game and how they are feeling about the season so far.

Then, each week I will post the results, discussing trends and trying to understand what’s driving the fan base. Assuming the project finds an audience, I expect the survey process to evolve some over time and feedback and suggestions are welcome. At the end of the season, for example, I will ask people to look back and tell me how they feel about each game – in order to see how feelings changed over time. And once the bowl game is over, I will field an end of season survey asking people to provide a final assessment of their satisfaction.

Sorry for the delay friends - pulled a good double shift out of town yesterday and this is the first chance I've had to post. Hopefully you still find it helpful! We have a high pressure system right over the Great Lakes region. This gives us plenty of sun, but also gives us some cool mornings and nights, so grab the layers! Let's go blue!

Tailgating

Brrr! Definitely a chilly start to the day! Lots of thermos cups out there this morning! Temps are running below normal so that gives you the right to complain (a little bit - Marquette is at 32 this morning). Some shady spots are even starting off with a bit of frost here and there! Tailgating temps will run in the low 40s if you're out there early but will quickly warm with the sun. We'll be up to the low 50s by mid-morning with blue skies. On top of sunshine, the other good news is very light winds - they'll be out of the north around 5mph (just enough to rustle leaves) and we won't have to add in a wind chill.

Kickoff

66 for the first kick! Not bad at all - it sounds cool, but we'll be plenty comfy while sitting in the sun. And we'll have a lot of that! As we get into the afternoon, UV levels could easily hit that moderate range so you may want to keep the hat on. Winds will shift just a tad to the NE at about 7-8mph, enough to keep the leaves rustling a bit.

Halftime

Nearing 70 by the half with a few clouds here and there - still plenty of sunshine in store for us to end the game. Especially if you're sitting in the sun, you'll be warm! Winds will remain out of the NE at 10mph.

Post-Game

Exiting the gates with that win, why not take advantage of the great Fall weather and celebrate out on the town?! You'll want the hoodie as temps will start to drop into the low 60s by dinner-time. Winds will be light, out of the NE, at 5-6mph, and they'll stay that way into the late-night. If you're staying out late, by 10pm we'll be looking at low 50s, and by that last call we're facing mid 40s. Eesh. Yeah you won't forget the hoodie on the stool this week! Go blue!

Christina Burkhart is the morning meteorologist for ABC in Flint, MI. She grew up in Ann Arbor and associates Saturdays with Michigan football. Go Blue!!

In the all-time winning percentage race with Notre Dame, Michigan maintains a .0019 edge, .7305 to .7286 (or about 2.5 games; a loss for either of these schools lowers its percentage by about .0006; a win raises its percentage by about .0002).

Michigan of course maintains its 39-game margin in the wins race, 936 to 897.

----LAST WEEK, WHEN RANKED BY THE AP:

Michigan plays in a game involving two AP-ranked teams only a few times a year, so last weekend's game (#11 vs. #17) was notable for that reason.

In the era of modern Michigan football (since Bo arrived in 1969):

Michigan is 22-4-0 (.846) when playing as the AP #11, one of Michigan's most fruitful rankings from the standpoint of winning percentage. Last loss: October 15, 2011, at Michigan State 28-14.

Michigan is 9-1-1 (.864) when playing against the AP #17, which is Michigan's best percentage against any place in the rankings. Last loss: October 9, 2010, Michigan State 34-17.

Michigan is 365-111-7 (.762) when playing as an AP-ranked team.

Michigan is 55-41-1 (.572) when playing a lower-ranked (but not unranked) team.

----THIS WEEK:

Michigan has moved up to AP #8 for the game against Cincinnati.

Since 1969 Michigan is 18-6-0 (.750) playing as the AP #8. Last win: September 4, 2004, Miami (Ohio) 43-10. Last loss: September 1, 2012, Alabama (in Dallas) 41-14.

Towards the end of last season, I started writing a (mostly) weekly diary relating to divisional races within the Power 5 conferences and the chances certain teams would end up in conference championship games (Example). I plan to repeat that process this season, but it's obviously not a useful exercise until we're about two thirds through the season.

In the meantime, I wanted to spend some time relating to interconference records instead of intraconference records. Ergo, behold the first installment of a weekly diary to extend through the non-conference season (and rebooted for bowl season), detailing how each of the conferences are fairing against external foes. It shall be called "Conference Pride" which is "partial satire" on those who would chant something such as, oh, I don't know, "SEC! SEC! SEC!" when their 7-5 team wins the Music City Bowl.

Too Long, Didn't Read (TL;DR)

The ACC had a rough opening weekend, although it likely had the most difficult schedule from top to bottom of any of the major conferences. They avoided any egregious losses, but also didn't win any games they weren't expected to or any over teams that will be in the Top 25 come Week 2. Their 10-4 (2-4 P5) record was the second worst among the conferences and they gave up several opportunities for big wins (Georgia Tech, NC State).

The Big Ten was the only major conference to avoid any bad losses (in fact, its losses were impressive with bottom-dwellers Purdue and Rutgers threatening Top 15 opponents) and notched two high profile wins. On the other hand, it's raw record isn't as impressive as the PAC 12 or SEC. Week 2 will be a pivotal one for the B1G, with 7/14 teams playing Power 5 opponents.

The Big 12 had an abysmal opening weekend despite having a fairly easy slate. They had the worst loss of any P5 school (Baylor) and didn't notch a single impressive victory. The conference seems poised to take further beatings in the next two weeks.

The PAC 12 was actually perfect in Week 1 overall and even against the P5; its sole loss came in Week 0 from Oregon State to Colorado State from the Mountain West. Yet, the conference did not beat a single ranked team, many of its contenders struggled in too close for comfort wins against inferior opponents (USC, Washington, etc.), and they were the only conference besides the Big 12 to have a member lose to a Group of 5 school. Look for us to find out more about the PAC 12 in the coming weeks.

The SEC posted a perfect 3-0 record against the ACC after losing their perch atop the college football world to the basketball-centric conference during the 2016 season. Yet, their two losses were both pretty brutal, for very different reasons, from big brand schools in each division (A&M and Florida).

ACC

Non-Conference Record: 10-4 (0.714); 2-4 (0.333) vs. Power 5

vs. Big Ten: 1-0

vs. Big 12: 1-0

vs. PAC 12: 0-1

vs. SEC: 0-3

vs. Non-Power 5: 8-0

Marquee Wins (Week 1):

#21 Virginia Tech 31, #22 West Virginia 24 (Baltimore, MD)

The Hokies notched the conference's only ranked win in Week 1 by prevailing over their long-dormant rivals, the West Virginia Mountaineers of the Big 12. It was a promising way to begin season 2 of the Justin Fuente era in Blacksburg as VT looks to repeat as ACC Coastal Champions.

Bad Losses (Week 1):

California 35, North Carolina 30 (Chapel Hill, NC)

Losing at home as a double digit favorite (line was -13.5 UNC) is a pretty brutal way to start the year for a basketball school that has suprisingly resided in the upper echelon of their football division for the past several years (Tar Heels came in 1st in the Coastal in 2015, 2nd in 2016 and 3rd in 2014). Especially considering the fact that this was against a brand new head coach kicking off a rebuilding season while 2,000 miles from home for a 9AM PT kickoff.

Big Ten

Non-Conference Record: 10-2 (0.833); 2-2 (0.500) vs. Power 5

vs. ACC: 0-1

vs. Big 12: 1-0

vs. PAC 12: 0-1

vs. SEC: 1-0

vs. Non-Power 5: 8-0

Marquee Wins (Week 1):

#11 Michigan 33, #17 Florida 17 (Arlington, TX)

We all know what happened in this one. Dominating win over the perennial SEC East Champion for the youngest team in football.

Maryland 51, #23 Texas 41 (Austin, TX)

Yes, Texas was grotesquely overrated. Yet, for a Maryland program that hadn't defeated a ranked foe since 2010, this was a monster road win. In addition, it's a big national perception boost for the conference to have one of its perennial bottom-feeders take down college football's premier brand ($$$) in their own house (as an 18.5 point underdog, nonetheless). The jury's still out on DJ's Terps 2017 potential, but I have a feeling they'll make the Big Ten East interesting before too long.

Bad Losses (Week 1):

None

The Big Ten's only losses were from its two worst teams over the past two seasons. Both were playing top 16 teams, both covered the spread by significant margins, both led at times and Purdue was extremely close to winning despite suffering #Columbus esque reffing. If anything, both losses were two of the most encouraging games from the conference this week.

Big 12

Non-Conference Record: 7-3 (0.700); 0-2 vs. Power 5 (0.000)

vs. ACC: 0-1

vs. Big Ten: 0-1

vs. PAC 12: N/A

vs. SEC: N/A

vs. Non-Power 5: 7-1

Marquee Wins (Week 1):

None

Bad Losses (Week 1):

Maryland 51, #23 Texas 41 (Austin, TX)

Already discussed this one from the victors' angle; from the losers', it's unabashedly brutal. Particularly for a fanbase with such unrealstic expectations. Their new, exceedingly highly paid head coach, walked into DRK stadium as an annointed savior and left, less than four hours later, to trash being rained onto the field by fans. Yikes.

Liberty 48, Baylor 45 (Waco, TX)

The Baylor Bears also welcomed a new head coach home with a mind-boggling defeat. Although the circumstances were dolorous to begin with after the widespread sexual assualt scandal, losing to an FCS team that went a measely 6-5 in 2016 is not going to make things any easier for this shamed program.

PAC 12

Non-Conference Record: 12-1 (0.923); 3-0 vs. Power 5 (1.000)

vs. ACC: 1-0

vs. Big Ten: 1-0

vs. Big 12: N/A

vs. SEC: 1-0

vs. Non-Power 5: 9-1

Marquee Wins (Week 1):

UCLA 45, Texas A&M 44 (Pasadena, CA)

34 point comeback against an SEC West team? Second biggest comeback of all time in college football and biggest in school history? Sounds marquee to me.

California 35, North Carolina 30 (Chapel Hill, NC)

The type of win Tom Herman wishes he had. What a fantastic start for Justin Wilcox as he begins his headcoaching career.

Bad Losses (Week 1):

Colorado State 58, Oregon State 27 (Fort Collins, CO)

Yes, Oregon State has consistently been the worst team in the PAC 12. Yes, Colorado State is consistently one of the more solid teams in the Group of 5. Still, a 31 point defeat for a Power 5 school at the hands of a Group of 5 school is pretty rough. Particularly for Gary Andersen, who nonsensically ditched the Badgers for the Beavers, as he enters Year 3 in Corvallis.

SEC

Non-Conference Record: 12-2 (0.857); 4-2 vs. Power 5 (0.667)

vs. ACC: 3-0

vs. Big Ten: 0-1

vs. Big 12: N/A

vs. PAC 12: 0-1

vs. Independents: 1-0

vs. Non-Power 5: 8-0

Marquee Wins (Week 1):

#1 Alabama 24, #3 Florida State 7 (Atlanta, GA)

Despite this game being slightly closer than the score indicates, and Saban & Co. benefiting from a few "lucky" turnovers/dubious calls, Bama is still solidly #1 and The Tide rolls on. When will teams finally start refusing to play Alabama in neutral site season openers?

#13 LSU 27, BYU 0 (New Orleans, LA)

Although a Tigers' win is not at all surprising and BYU looks to be nothing to write home about, LSU looked very balanced in all three phases of the game. Plus, a Power 5 shutout is always a nice resume boost.

Bad Losses (Week 1):

UCLA 45, Texas A&M 44 (Pasadena, CA)

Sumlin decided to play out the script of a typical Aggie season within the confines of a single game (impressive start garnering national praise followed by a sudden, staggering plummet into despair). I'm surprised they didn't Lane Kiffin him on the tarmac of LAX.

#11 Michigan 33, #17 Florida 17 (Arlington, TX)

It's not so much that Florida lost as much as it is their offense only scored 3 points. Without the two pick 6s, this would've been an absolute blowout and true Gator fans are well aware of that. Not a good sign for Year 3 with an offensively based coach.