Russians rally for, and against, Putin

Authorities organize supporters to counter anti-regime protesters

New York Times

Published 9:18 pm, Saturday, February 4, 2012

MOSCOW — Anti-government protesters managed to gather a third huge crowd in the center of Moscow on Saturday, undeterred by arctic, bitter cold or by the near certainty that Vladimir Putin will win a six-year presidential term next month.

This time, Russian authorities were prepared, organizing a simultaneous, and also huge, rally in defense of Putin where speakers issued dire warnings of possible consequences of continued protest: revolution and the breakup of the country.

By the end of the frigid day, it appeared that the demonstrations had not lost momentum and could continue into the spring, posing an unexpected challenge to Putin, who has never faced sustained opposition.

"It's clear that there will be no change now. But we are a snowball, and we are rolling," said Marina V. Segupova, 28, an interior decorator, who was wearing ski pants and a scarf encrusted white from her frozen breath.

City authorities said Saturday's anti-government crowd was larger than either of the two large rallies in December offering an estimate of 36,000. Organizers gave an estimate of 120,000. Police claimed the pro-government rally, made up largely of government workers, was nearly four times the size of the opposition march, but journalists who were present said that seemed widely exaggerated. With a month left before presidential elections, polls show Putin, who is currently prime minister, is far ahead of his four rivals in the race, and has a good chance of breaking the 50 percent barrier to win in a first round. If he falls short of that, he would be almost certain to win in a second round three weeks later.

The protest movement, meanwhile, has not coalesced into a coherent political force. It lacks leaders willing or able to challenge Putin, by far the country's most popular politician. Maksim Trudolyubov, editorial editor of Vedomosti, a newspaper, said the protests' major impact is to broadcast a message that Putin cannot continue to rule in same style.

"We are standing at a really important threshold for this country," Trudolyubov said in an interview. "Right now, if nothing extraordinary happens — a black swan, or something — he is of course the president in March. But in March, he will be a very different president, a president with a different level of legitimacy."