The Edmonton Oilers have the roster and cap space to add a good defenceman

Yesterday, I argued that the Edmonton Oilers absolutely need to use their second buyout window in order to clear space for a free agent defenceman who can significantly improve the team. One of the chief objections raised was a concern that the Oilers couldn’t make such a move work from a cap/roster perspective.

They can.

I intentionally aimed high and used Cody Franson at $5.5 million on a long-term deal as a hypothetical signing. He won’t earn that much; it wouldn’t really surprise me if he were to earn less than $5.0 million on shorter deal given the current state of free agency (A three-year deal would be ideal for the Oilers, as it would expire at the same time as the entry-level deals of Darnell Nurse and Connor McDavid).

I also used Andrew Ference as my buyout candidate, again to demonstrate a worst-case scenario approach. Naturally, Nikita Nikitin is a far more plausible option.

What would the roster look like, and how much money would the Oilers have to spend if they were to buyout Nikitin and clear a slot for Franson? Here’s one possible scenario:

The above assumes that McDavid makes all his rookie bonuses and that Griffin Reinhart makes none of his. Without looking at their respective contracts it’s impossible to be definitive on the likelihood of either of those happening, but between the two assumptions the Oilers should be able to avoid carrying over any bonus overage to 2016-17.

The above also assumes that Leon Draisaitl and Darnell Nurse start the year in the minors, that Ben Scrivens beats out Anders Nilsson for the backup job and that Luke Gazdic and Rob Klinkhammer claim the No. 12/13 slots on the forward depth chart. All of these assumptions have negligible salary cap implications, save the Draisaitl move. There’s an excellent explanation of rookie bonus overages and the impact of having McDavid, Reinhart and Draisaitl on the roster at the blog Hockey Symposium for those wondering about the details.

The above should make it clear that the Oilers have the room to add a body on defence (Eric Gryba’s a fine fit as No. 7, Andrew Ference would be buried save for his no-move clause and that’s what’s happening here) and things get even easier if management is willing to start Reinhart in the minors. Edmonton also has the money to offer Franson up to $5.0 million this season and could even go all the way to $5.5 million if Reinhart started in the minors and the Oilers went with a 22-man roster.

The situation doesn’t get worse next summer, either.

In the summer of 2016, significant contracts to Teddy Purcell and Ben Scrivens come off the books, clearing nearly $7.0 million in space with which find a raise for Talbot (or a new goalie, if he doesn’t work out) and make room for Draisaitl and Nurse on the big roster. With Franson and Sekera signed (in this scenario) this summer, there shouldn’t be any need to land big upgrades at any position in free agency, so the only significant expense should be in net (unless Justin Schultz suddenly evolves into a top-end defenceman, which can be addressed if and when it happens). If there’s a need for additional room, it will be possible to buyout the last year of Ference’s contract. Even assuming a stagnant salary cap, the Oilers should be fine.

The Oilers have a rare opportunity to add a quality defenceman at what will likely be a reasonable price-point. They have the cap space to make the move, and a desperate need to get better. It’s not an opportunity the team can afford to waste.

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