Sam and Johnson have put their heads together and have come up with their sure-fire* picks for this year’s Academy Awards (*no guarantees!). After the jump check out the picks (‘will win’ and ‘should win’ for each category) and their extended thoughts on who they think will take home the golden statues this year.

PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
Christian Bale in “American Hustle”
Bruce Dern in “Nebraska”
Leonardo DiCaprio in “The Wolf of Wall Street”
Chiwetel Ejiofor in “12 Years a Slave”
Matthew McConaughey in “Dallas Buyers Club”

PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Barkhad Abdi in “Captain Phillips”
Bradley Cooper in “American Hustle”
Michael Fassbender in “12 Years a Slave”
Jonah Hill in “The Wolf of Wall Street”
Jared Leto in “Dallas Buyers Club”

PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
Amy Adams in “American Hustle”
Cate Blanchett in “Blue Jasmine”
Sandra Bullock in “Gravity”
Judi Dench in “Philomena”
Meryl Streep in “August: Osage County”

Will Win &Should Win: Cate Blanchett (Johnson & Sam)

PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Sally Hawkins in “Blue Jasmine”
Jennifer Lawrence in “American Hustle”
Lupita Nyong’o in “12 Years a Slave”
Julia Roberts in “August: Osage County”
June Squibb in “Nebraska”

ACHIEVEMENT IN MUSIC WRITTEN FOR MOTION PICTURES (ORIGINAL SONG)
“Alone Yet Not Alone” from “Alone Yet Not Alone”, Music by Bruce Broughton, Lyric by Dennis Spiegel
“Happy” from “Despicable Me 2”, Music and Lyric by Pharrell Williams
“Let It Go” from “Frozen”, Music and Lyric by Kristen Anderson-Lopez and Robert Lopez
“The Moon Song” from “Her”, Music by Karen O, Lyric by Karen O and Spike Jonze
“Ordinary Love” from “Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom”, Music by Paul Hewson, Dave Evans, Adam Clayton and Larry Mullen
Lyric by Paul Hewson

Will Win:Gravity (Johnson); The Great Gatsby (Sam)Should Win:Gravity (Johnson); Her (Sam)

BEST ANIMATED SHORT FILM
“Feral”
“Get a Horse!”
“Mr. Hublot”
“Possessions”
“Room on the Broom”

Will Win:Get a Horse!(Sam)

BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT FILM
“Aquel No Era Yo (That Wasn’t Me)”
“Avant Que De Tout Perdre (Just before Losing Everything)”
“Helium”
“Pitääkö Mun Kaikki Hoitaa? (Do I Have to Take Care of Everything?)”
“The Voorman Problem”

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
“American Hustle”, Written by Eric Warren Singer and David O. Russell
“Blue Jasmine”, Written by Woody Allen
“Dallas Buyers Club”, Written by Craig Borten & Melisa Wallack
“Her”, Written by Spike Jonze
“Nebraska”, Written by Bob Nelson

Not a bad selection this year, I predict that this year’s Oscar wins will be dominated by Gravity and 12 Years a Slave with the former winning most of the technical awards such as best visual effects and editing and the latter winning awards such as best picture, best adapted screenplay and the like. I also think that Gravity’s Alfonso Cuaron will walk away with the coveted best director Oscar. With a Golden Globe in his pocket, Cuaron seems to be a lock and I was simply in awe of the way he managed to stage the complex, gyrating movement of his shots which were done in ways I had never seen before.

I think that it’s a great shame that The Wolf of Wall Street probably won’t win any of the awards it’s been nominated for. Simply put, this movie entertained me the most out of anything I’ve seen from 2013 and manages to make three hours pass by in the blink of an eye. Alas, it’s simply too controversial a movie to appeal to most academy members. I also regret having not seen Nebraska which is apparently an excellent film.

For the acting awards, I think that 12 Years a Slave deserves, and will win, best actor and best supporting actress for Chiwetel Ejiofor and Lupita Nyong’o respectively. Ejiofor delivered a performance of depth and barely suppressed rage and anguish. I really felt as if he was about to implode from all the pent up frustrations the character suffered throughout the film. Nyong’o also put in similarly impressive work. Blanchett’s excellent performance in Blue Jasmine will probably be a lock. A veteran of the similar A Streetcar Named Desire, Blanchett has never been better as the neurotic, irresponsible Jasmine. I also think that Jared Leto will win best supporting actor for Dallas Buyers Club, which I think he should.

For best foreign language film, The Hunt will most likely win, as it should. This was a searing, perpetually tension filled film that tackled a very uncomfortable subject and did it magnificently. I also think that the charming Frozen will win best animated picture which would also be my pick. I was a little torn about the documentary nominees. I found The Act of Killing extremely fascinating and disturbing given that it was about the persecution of several groups of people in Indonesia including my own ethnic group. This will probably win, though because I disagree with some of the ethics involved in the filming of this documentary, I actually favour 20 Feet From Stardom, a toe-tapping inspirational look at the previous unseen world of back-up singers.

Sam’s thoughts

The Academy did a reasonable job recognising some of the best films released in 2013, but they by no means got it 100% right. Brie Larson, Will Forte, Oscar Isaac – these are just a few of the performances not nominated. However, let’s focus on what they got right. They nominated by favourite film of 2013, Nebraska. I don’t think the film really has a chance of winner any of the major awards it has been nominated for, but I’m so glad it’s at least part of the conversation.

For some time I have thought 12 Years will take best picture, and I still think it’s the case. The Academy historically doesn’t like giving science fiction the top prize, favouring dramas heavily in this field. If 12 Years wins adapted screenplay, then I think it will take best picture. If it misses out on adapted screenplay, then well, best picture is Gravity‘s to lose. The category I found hardest to settle on was supporting actress. This should go to Nyong’o, but I still have this lingering fear that they’ll award Jennifer Lawrence. She won the Globe and the BAFTA and she’s an Oscar winner already….I love Lawrence, but I strongly believe she shouldn’t even be in contention for her performance in Hustle.

I would love The Hunt to win the foreign film award, but I can’t see The Great Beauty losing this one. The film has done reasonably well in the US and I feel that it has more momentum on its side. As long as The Broken Circle Breakdown doesn’t win, I won’t mind too much who takes the award in this category. In the documentary category I would absolutely love for Dirty Wars to win. This film was my favourite at Sydney Film Festival and I have sung its praises for months. I can’t see it happening though. The documentary category is a tough one to call this year. Will the Academy be daring enough to award The Act of Killing? I don’t think so. My pick is the feel-good, inspirational (and utterly fantastic) Twenty Feet From Stardom.

If I could pick five wild card winners they would be the following: Leonardo DiCarprio (leading actor), Nebraska (original screenplay), Nebraska or Prisoners (cinematography), Dirty Wars (documentary) and Despicable Me 2 (original song). I don’t think any of these are likely to happen, but if any of them did, I would be overjoyed. These are the outside chances I’ll be cheering for on Oscars day.

What do you think of our picks? Let us know and share your picks in the comments.

Fassbender’s role was a tough one and he was utterly convincing. I’d be happy to see Jonah Hill win as well, he was the definition of a supporting role in WOLF and the film would have been less without his exuberant performance in it.
I’ll be so disappointed if Lupita doesn’t win. It just wouldn’t be right.