The recent Germany-Turkey dispute over the Incirlic air base can distance Ankara from the West in the Syria and will likely set up further roadblocks ahead of the Turkish accession to the European Union.

The Ankara-Berlin tensions moved into a new stage over the past year and particularly after the botched military coup of the Turkish army against President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in July 2016. For years, the two countries’ rifts stemmed from Berlin’s opposition to Ankara membership of the EU, however their gaps deepened following eruption of the Syrian crisis. The German pressures on Turkey to curb the waves of refugees heading to Europe through the Turkish territories even worsened the rows between the two sides.

During the past six years, the two countries tensions were overshadowed by an array of considerations. After all, Turkey is a front line member of NATO and its security is of priority for the military organization. Moreover, Turkey has the strategic Incirlic air base hosting the international coalition’s fighter jets carrying out airstrikes on targets inside Syria. But the underway developments in the region further disclose the two countries’ struggles that were once concealed behind their NATO membership.

When in early 2013 Syria crisis hit its alarming levels, Ankara leaders expressed concerns over possible spillover of the clashes to the Turkish territories. Addressing the Turkish worries, NATO members including Germany deployed their Patriot air defense systems to the Incirlic military area bordering the Syrian territories. After formation of the international coalition to combat ISIS terrorist group, the Turkish air base gained even further focus and significance in the US-led military campaign in both Syria and Iraq.

Located close to Syria’s ISIS-held lands and actually the Syrian borders, the Incirlic air base was rated fit for hosting the foreign fighter jets as well as military personnel coming from the coalition countries. From the Turkish base, the sorties over Syria take place in a shortest time, and it also takes the aircraft a short time to refuel and carry on bombing flights.

Moreover, Incirlic military base is in shortest distance with Iraq’s Kurdistan region. This is a special advantage to Germany, the largest weapons supplier of the autonomous Kurdish region in its fight against the ISIS terrorists.

In the shadow of the recent developments, it appears that the military base no longer holds the earlier position and significance in the eyes of the Western members of the international coalition. The Turkish leaders, who see presence of coalition’s military equipment and troops as a guard against any possible retaliatory offensives of the terrorists against the Turkish territories, still want the West to keep forces at the base. But the disputes with Berlin make the military site fall out of favor with the West.

During the refugee crisis that saw people from the war-torn countries flooding towards Europe through Turkey, Ankara leaders exploited their power to keep the human disaster away from Europe as a pressure tool to pursue some of their agenda. The Germans well remember that instead of giving a helping hand, the Turks threatened that if needed they will unleash the massive waves of refugees who naturally would go to Poland and Cyprus and from there to the Western Europe countries. As a preemptive measure to deal with the possible risks, the German Chancellor Angela Merkel visited Egypt in search of a solution for the crisis in North Africa.

The tensions culminated in Berlin’s tough reactions to the post-coup Turkey crackdown, reinstating the death penalty in the Turkish court rulings, and very recently barring the German members of the parliament from visiting the Incirlic-based German troops.

Reacting to the ban, the German Foreign Minister Sigmar Gabriel said Berlin could relocate its equipment and troops from Turkey. He noted that the withdrawal will not be limited to Tornado reconnaissance aircraft from Incirlic but also NATO may decide to relocate its AWACS spy planes now stationed in Konya, Turkey.

As the dispute intensified, Germany said it is considering alternative base for its forces. Finally, Ursula von der Leyen, the German defense minister, put an end to the media speculations when he said a Jordan air base had the necessary potentials to host her country’s forces in the region. She recently visited Jordan’s Al Azraq air base for possible forces relocation.

But transfer of the 250 German troops along with their military equipment from Turkey to Jordan will cost Berlin a high price. Earlier, German lawmakers allocated €58 million ($65.1 million) to fund the ongoing mission of the country’s forces in the West Asia, including €28 million for deployment and maintenance of the Tornado reconnaissance aircraft and €30 million for equipping the troops.

Christoph Hertzel, a German security and military analyst, has recently disclosed that this money is not solely spent on the military personnel. He said that Germany spies also use the Turkish military site for their operations in Syria.

Moreover, Germany sees it unjustified to keep forces in Turkey while the West is reviewing plan and redirecting its focus and forces on the Jordan-Syria borders. A fortnight ago, as part of the new strategy, US held military drills along with 7,000 troops from 21 countries. The drills included US bombers maneuvering along the Syria-Jordanian borders. The West claimed the maneuver came to address threats posed by ISIS, despite the fact that the terrorist group holds no major ground in the area.

The analysts suggest that a distribution of duties between the Western actors is taking place, something pushing the Germans to inflame disputes with the Turks and so prepare their public opinion for a relocation of forces to go in the heart of West Asia conflict.

Germany recently took anti-Turkish stance on the anniversary of massacre of the Armenians at the hand of the Ottoman Empire in early 20th century. A little later, the German members of the parliament called for permission to meet the German troops stationed in Turkey, a demand turned down by the Turkish authorities. Berlin most likely had predicted such a reply from Ankara.

Turkish opposition to the call of the MPs certainly drew support from the German public for the Merkel government and justify allocating more money on relocation of their country’s troops to Jordan, just close to the region’s hotspot.

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