Iran again

There have been many false alarms, and Ive criticised some on this very forum, but I cant think of a time in recent history when a direct conflict with Iran was more likely.

Its long been a strategic aim of Israel to denude Iran's capabilities. Netanyahu's increasingly deranged presentations are evidence of that, and it seems they may have found their moment. They've never had a better climate in Washington with Bolton and Trump, support from the Saudis and gulf states... Sniping journalists, torturing children and executing wounded teenagers gets boring after a while... so why not launch an insanely reckless attack on a Russian ally in the centre of a volatile region already torn by conflict?

There's been ongoing conflict between Israel and Syrian forces since the beginning of the war due to Israel's regular incursions and attacks.

There's also the small matter of the Golan heights, a source of strife for decades.

The drumbeat of war – almost exclusively from one side – has been insistent, setting the stage for this week’s escalation.

The reality of this softening up of public opinion with the coincidence of Donald Trump’s decision to pull out of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action to limit Iran’s nuclear ambitions – moves coordinated with Israel – means that analysis of who is to blame for this outbreak of hostilities demands even more than usual scepticism and careful unpackaging.

In terms of who has been responsible for both violence and the escalating sense of crisis, it is important to note that it is Israel for several years that has been conducting air and missile strikes with impunity against targets in Syria, perhaps several hundred in total until an Iranian drone penetrated Israeli airspace earlier this year.

Those attacks, which at first often struck what were described as weapons storage facilities and missiles transfers to Hezbollah, have recently become more pointed and dangerous.

In recent weeks Israel appears to have stepped up a notch in pursuing a deliberate policy of provoking Iran, including by targeting Iranian advisers in Syria leading to reported Iranian fatalities in strikes.

If the context of Israeli military action is not hard to fathom, then neither is the strong sense that its recent actions, informed by that background, have been deliberate.

Israel’s strategy of deterrence on its northern border – including preemption – is based on a policy of preventing a significant threat developing that would allow its enemies to hit Israeli population centres. But equally important is any development that is seen as potentially limiting the Israeli military’s freedom of action.