How Theo Walcott Explains the Soccer World

Theo Walcott scored three goals and set up two more in Arsenal's 7-3 win over Newcastle on Saturday.
Reuters

By

Gabriele Marcotti

Updated Dec. 30, 2012 11:21 a.m. ET

Good things come to those who wait—except when they don't.

Arsenal has waited nearly seven years for Theo Walcott to live up to his potential. Now that he's finally showing the consistency that for so long eluded him—he scored a hat trick and set up two other goals in a wild 7-3 win Saturday against Newcastle—the Gunners' reward is that they could lose him for nothing.

Walcott, whose current contract expires in June, has been negotiating with the club, and manager Arsene Wenger says he is "hopeful" they'll reach an agreement. But as of Tuesday, Walcott will be free to sign a "precontract" with another team. This means he'll take his talents elsewhere next season, and Arsenal won't receive any compensation for their patience with him.

Walcott's tale neatly encompasses so many of the themes in modern soccer, from how teams scout youngsters and evaluate their progress to free agency and salary management. Most of all, it speaks to the evolving balance of power over the life of a contract between a player and his club.

Everything was set up for Walcott to be a can't-miss superstar. Shortly after his 16th birthday, he led Southampton to the FA Youth Cup final while competing against guys who were two or three years older. A few months later, he became the youngest player to step on the pitch in Southampton history. In January 2006, without having seen a single minute of top-flight action and still 16, Walcott moved to Arsenal for a basic fee of $8 million plus a range of performance-related incentives that made his contract worth up to $19.3 million. (In January 2008, the clubs agreed to scrap the extras and settled on a final fee of $15 million.)

It was an enormous price for someone so young who had achieved so little. Things got crazier still in May 2006, when England coach Sven-Goran Eriksson picked Walcott for the 23-man World Cup squad, despite the fact that Walcott still hadn't seen any Premier League action and was still on the reserve team. As a result, he actually played his first England game nearly three months before his Premier League debut.

It wasn't hard to see why Walcott was one of the hottest commodities in the English game. He was agile, quick, technically solid and blessed with outrageous speed, the kind that can't be coached and sets scouts drooling. He also seemed ideally primed for those parts of the game that could be coached. Walcott was bright, personable and eager to learn. He came from a strong, middle-class family, marked by discipline, work ethic and a wide range of interests. His father had a 17-year career in the Royal Air Force. His mother was a midwife. His sister is a vegan and a competitive bodybuilder, and one of his brothers is a chef. Walcott himself has written four children's books.

If he were an NFL draft prospect, he'd be the guy who's a bit raw but wows scouts at the combine and aces the Wonderlic test.

Here's the problem: In soccer, as in most sports, greatness is still difficult to predict. Walcott's career trajectory made things especially tricky. On the one hand, in his first five full seasons with Arsenal, he struggled to establish himself as a consistent starter. But every so often, he'd show a glimpse of what he could do. The biggest knock against him was a perceived lack of end product—he'd do everything right and then fluff a shooting chance or mis-hit a pass to an open teammate. They were mental errors, but the kind that most players managed to iron out in their teens.

As a result, last season was the first in which he started more than half of Arsenal's league games. He showed that he was a bona-fide regular at a Champions League club without necessarily being a superstar. Still, at 23, he could fill that role for a long time to come. Negotiations to extend his contract began that season.

But by then, the balance of power had shifted. Clubs ordinarily like to lock up their star players when they have two years left on their deals. At that stage, the leverage is very much with the employer. If no deal is reached, the player can be sold at full-market value. But players will often sacrifice wages in exchange for long-term security. Throw in possible pressure from the fans and the so-called hometown discount, and you can see why clubs have the edge in this situation.

Walcott's case was complicated by the fact that his body of work to that point was decidedly mixed. His own idea of what he was worth differed from Arsenal's. As the season unfolded and he showed his reliability, his position strengthened, and he was able to drive a tougher bargain. Arsenal could have tried to sell him in the summer, and indeed there was some paper talk to that effect. At least that way, it could have gotten something back for its investment. But no move materialized.

This season, Walcott has blossomed. He seems well aware that he holds most of the cards, going so far as to say he wants to play as a center forward rather than as a winger. It was as a central striker that he turned in his tremendous performance Saturday.

Take a step back and you see just how much of an upper hand Walcott now has. It isn't just the financial aspect—clearly he can demand more than he could just six months or a year ago—but also the fact that he's telling the manager where he wants to play. Public opinion suggests it is a no-brainer, and against Newcastle, fans at Arsenal's Emirates Stadium were chanting "Sign him up! Arsene, Arsene, sign him up!"

So did Arsenal screw up here? It is tempting to come to that conclusion in hindsight. But in many ways, Arsenal's stance made sense at the time. Walcott's gifts were evident, but so was the fact that he had failed to fully harness them. And with Walcott, it isn't as if the slow development could be chalked up to other issues.

Plus, locking Walcott into the long-term deal he presumably wants means less room to maneuver. If you pay a guy starter money, you generally need to start him. Otherwise, his value diminishes, particularly if he has a big contract. What's more, Walcott wanting to play up front is another potential headache. It worked out Saturday, though Wenger also spent big on Olivier Giroud in the summer, and his characteristics are the polar opposite to Walcott's, which suggests Arsenal would need a substantial tactical overhaul to satisfy Walcott's wish.

The reality is that a lot of contractual relations come down to game theory and assessing probability vs. opportunity cost. Arsenal didn't necessarily negotiate badly. It simply played the percentages at the time. To paraphrase John Maynard Keynes, when the facts changed, Arsenal did too. The question now is whether it was too late.

—Gabriele Marcotti is the world soccer columnist for the Times of London and a regular broadcaster for the BBC.

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