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TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT TUE AUG 24 1999
THERE ARE MIXED SIGNALS AS TO THE ORGANIZATION OF TROPICAL
DEPRESSION FIVE THIS MORNING. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM
TAFB AND SAB ARE 35 KT AND 30 KT RESPECTIVELY...AND THIS IS
SUPPORTED BY A 35 KT REPORT FROM SHIP WZJF. HOWEVER...THE WIND
DIRECTION AT THIS SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD-MOVING SHIP IS UNCHANGED OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. THIS SUGGESTS A POORLY DEFINED OR ELONGATED
CIRCULATION. SHIP 3FOB5...LOCATED ABOUT 70 MILES WEST OF THE
ESTIMATED CENTER...SUPPORTS THIS IDEA BY REPORTING EAST WINDS 5 KT.
THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN A DEPRESSION ON THIS PACKAGE. AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WILL INVESTIGATE THE DEPRESSION
STARTING AT 12Z.
THERE ARE SEVERAL FEATURES BOTH INSIDE AND OUTSIDE THE CONVECTION
THAT LOOK LIKE CENTERS...THUS THE LOCATION CONFIDENCE AND THE
INITIAL MOTION CONFIDENCE ARE LOW. THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS AT
295/7 FOR THIS ADVISORY. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WEAKENING THE RIDGE NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION AS A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH
DIGS SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE EASTERN U.S. THESE INDICATE THE CYCLONE
MAKING A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST THROUGH 72 HOURS... WITH A
TRACK OVER OR JUST EAST OF THE EASTERN BAHAMAS. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY
NHC HURRICANE GUIDANCE. THE GFDL...WHICH SIX HOURS AGO WAS CALLING
FOR A MUCH MORE WESTWARD TRACK...IS NOW IN LINE WITH THE REST OF THE
GUIDANCE. THIS MAY BE THE RESULT OF THE NOAA JET MISSION YESTERDAY.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO...BUT A LITTLE LEFT
OF...THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.
THE UPPER LEVEL IN ENVIRONMENT CONTINUES TO LOOK FAVORABLE FOR
INTENSIFICATION...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR SUCH IN
AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS MODEL. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT THE
SYSTEM MAY STRENGTHEN FASTER THAN FORECAST...ESPECIALLY AFTER
REACHING HURRICANE INTENSITY.
GIVEN THE LOCATION AND INTENSITY UNCERTAINTIES...AND THAT THE
SOUTHWEST SIDE OF THE SYSTEM IS STILL WEAK...NO WARNINGS OR WATCHES
WILL BE ISSUED FOR THE BAHAMAS OR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AT
THIS TIME. HOWEVER...THESE MAY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY.
BEVEN
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 24/0900Z 21.5N 69.1W 30 KTS
12HR VT 24/1800Z 21.9N 70.1W 35 KTS
24HR VT 25/0600Z 22.5N 71.4W 40 KTS
36HR VT 25/1800Z 23.3N 72.7W 45 KTS
48HR VT 26/0600Z 24.5N 74.0W 55 KTS
72HR VT 27/0600Z 27.0N 76.5W 70 KTS
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