In the last few weeks, several individuals have
asked me about the NASS Varsity Offshore Sailing Team coach lecture to
be given by Mr. Herb E. Hilgenberg of Toronto, Canada, this spring.

I guess that I thought that every person who had
been
in a command position in an Atlantic offshore passage or a race to
Bermuda
during the last six or seven years knew of SOUTH BOUND II. I
still
believe that to be the case, with few exceptions. However there seem to
be quite a few who are planning to make such passages that need more
background
to understand why we want to hear from Herb Hilgenberg. Herb is a
different,
precise and independent voice in deep ocean weather forecasting. We
want
all of the expertise in this field that we can muster. Safety at sea is
often critically dependent upon adequate preparation for changes in
weather
before they occur.

Thus precise knowledge of on coming events is
critical and is often difficult to obtain at sea. South Bound II
represents a new approach to this problem that we dare not ignore and
that has been proven effective repeatedly during the relatively short
time of its existence. The following description may help your
understanding.

* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *

Herb E.
Hilgenberg SOUTH BOUND II

Deep Ocean Weather Forecaster for the Atlantic

Each afternoon from his home in Burlington,
Ontario, outside of Toronto, Herb Hilgenberg goes on the air as "South
Bound II."
He then spends about six hours receiving weather and sea state reports
and
navigation plans from upwards of 80 vessels in the Atlantic Ocean from
Greenland
to South America, from Norway to Africa. In return he provides to each
individual
local weather and sea state predictions along the vessel’s predicted
track
for periods up to five days. In some cases he also gives advice on the
best
routes to follow. Commercial vessels and knowledgeable yachtsmen who
ply
the deep ocean rely on "South Bound II" to assist them in
making
comfortable, swift and economical passages through the vastness of the
Atlantic
where there are no weather stations to advise the Mariner about what
may
be coming. Although Herb has contact with some commercial vessels, most
of his daily contacts are with yachtsmen. There is no charge for this
service.

Why do commercial firms use this service? Why do
the
most knowledgeable and experienced yachtsmen rely on and swear by this
mild
and unassuming man from Toronto, who characterizes himself as "an
engineer,
not a meteorologist"? There are, after all, Offshore weather
predictions
broadcast by Government operated radio transmitters in the United
States,
Canada, United Kingdom, Spain, Portugal and other American and European
weather services.

The answer is not complicated. Herb is usually
correct in his predictions. All of the government weather services have
a rather natural priority to provide predictions of weather for the
land surfaces of their countries. Thus, the resources available to them
tend to be devoted largely to that task; their prediction models tend
to be based on weather that occurs above land surfaces. Thus with a few
localized exceptions, mostly
in coastal waters, the government weather service predictions for the
Atlantic
Ocean are general, large area predictions that cover tens of thousands
of
square miles (or square kilometers). They do not predict conditions in
detail.

Herb is of the sea; he understands the sea and
the needs of seamen. He is willing and able to give predictions for
very localized areas. He has been able to predict the strength of the
wind over the water, the times of day at which wind shifts, changes in
wind speed and frontal passages will occur. Along with that, he will
also predict sea state, including the direction and height of
conflicting wave trains. He may suggest alternative routes to avoid
particularly nasty conditions. His record for accuracy and
detail has made South Bound II an international byword among
sailors
on both sides of the Atlantic. In fact, he has recently undertaken some
Pacific Ocean predictions. Each day Herb concentrates his efforts on
the
ocean for many hours before he goes on the air. He has developed his
own
methods of prediction using many data sources, including direct
reception
from several satellites. The methods of analysis have not been
published.
South Bound II deals in results, not theory.

South Bound II does not advertise. Herb
accepts speaking engagements very seldom and almost never will consent
to be interviewed formally. South Bound II was started in the
late 80s in Bermuda, where Herb, a Canadian citizen, was working for a
private company. South Bound II was started as a hobby. As the
initially amateur activity grew
in scope, new licences were acquired and operating frequencies were
changed.
The Hilgenberg home progressively filled with computers and
communications equipment. Satellite dishes were planted in the garden.
South Bound II flourished.
In 1994 the Hilgenberg’s moved back to their home in Canada, much to
the
distress of many Bermudian sailors. It took a little time and a lot of
work
and investment, but South Bound II was reestablished in Canada
and
has been in operation for well over a year.

On Tuesday, April 16, Herb will give up one day
of South Bound II transmissions to lecture to the Naval Academy
Sailing
Squadron. As one of a series of senior coach lectures for USNA Varsity
Offshore
Sailing Team coaches, it will be conducted to be the equivalent of a
graduate
level seminar. The seminar will begin at 1930 hours in Chauvenet Hall
room
216. There is no scheduled finish time; discussion may continue two
hours
or more. NASS members are invited. Other interested experienced
yachtsmen may also attend. Small donations by attendees to support this
activity are
requested but not mandatory. Herb will discuss what he does and how his
service may be accessed, what to expect and what not to expect. For
those
who will be in command of vessels in the deep ocean beyond the
continental shelf, attendance would be an instructive and rewarding
experience. The discussion will center on the Ocean, not the Bay or the
Continental shelf. Those who are interested in those areas may be
disappointed. It will not be an elementary level explanation of
meteorology, nor will it be an explanation of single station
forecasting. The line of discussion will be designed to
give up to date information to experienced and qualified skippers,
navigators and watch captains. So if you have the experience to enjoy
this discussion, please join us.