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Donald Trump will be impeached in 2019, says 'prediction professor'

Scholar Allan Lichtman defied mainstream wisdom by forecasting early on that Donald Trump would win the 2016 presidential election. In an interview with DW, he now predicts that the president will be impeached next year.

The US president's basic conduct and politics are unlikely to change in 2019, but the new Democrat-controlled House of Representatives, coupled with the Russia investigation led by special counsel Robert Mueller, will lead to the impeachment of Donald Trump, predicts Allan Lichtman.

"I think it's more likely than not he will get impeached," the American University professor told DW.

After previously predicting 30 years of presidential elections correctly, Lichtman became a media phenomenon when he — against mainstream wisdom — predicted early on that Trump would win in 2016.

Now Lichtman is convinced that as of 2019, and for the remainder of his term, Trump will be engaged in a fight to remain in office — a fight he may well lose.

That's because until now, Trump could rely on a Republican-controlled Congress to shield him from impeachment or removal-from-office proceedings — essentially a political trial process — which can be triggered by a single majority vote in the House of Representatives. That process has long been a hot topic among the president's opponents in the Democratic Party, and in the wake of the midterm elections that flipped the House, Democrats will hold a solid a majority in 2019.

'You're fired' — Trump administration casualties

Trump administration's latest departure: Brett McGurk

Appointed by Trump's predecessor Barack Obama in 2015, McGurk was the US envoy to the coalition fighting "Islamic State" terrorists and was influential in shaping US policy in northern Syria. He was due to end his tenure in February 2019 but stepped down days after Defense Secretary Jim Mattis, largely due to Trump's sudden decision to take US soldiers out of Syria.

'You're fired' — Trump administration casualties

Jim Mattis

Defense Secretary Jim Mattis abruptly announced his retirement in late December after Trump ignored his advice and announced the complete withdrawal of US troops from Syria. Mattis' resignation letter laid bare the growing divide between them, criticizing his boss for his treatment of allies. Mattis was a keen supporter of NATO and traditional US alliances, putting him at odds with Trump.

'You're fired' — Trump administration casualties

Ryan Zinke

Interior Secretary Ryan Zinke resigned in December as pressure mounted from more than a dozen investigations into various aspects of his tenure and private business. The former Navy SEAL was a leading advocate of expanding domestic energy production, opening up vast swathes of the country for exploration.

'You're fired' — Trump administration casualties

John F. Kelly

In December, Trump announced that John Kelly, his third chief of staff, would step down at the end of 2018. He had been brought in to establish order in the Trump White House but found the job arduous, and his relationship with his boss soured. The retired four-star Marine Corps general will be replaced by budget director Mick Mulvaney, after several candidates turned down the job.

'You're fired' — Trump administration casualties

Jeff Sessions

Attorney General Jeff Sessions was fired in November after several months of abuse from Trump. Despite being an early supporter, he attracted the wrath of his boss early on by recusing himself from the Justice Department investigation into collusion. He was replaced with a loyalist who shares Trump's concerns about the investigation. He was a key figure in rolling back many of Obama's legacies.

'You're fired' — Trump administration casualties

Nikki Haley

United Nations Ambassador Nikki Haley, one of the administration's few high-profile women, announced her resignation in October. She said her resignation was long-planned, but the announcement took most senior politicians by surprise. She will stay on until the end of 2018. She lent international legitimacy to the administration as she attempted to provide a coherent message.

'You're fired' — Trump administration casualties

Marc Short

The White House director of legislative affairs announced he would leave his post effective July 20, 2018. Short, one of the administration's longest-serving members, was also one of its most visible, pushing Trump's legislative agenda on TV. But his work was frequently undercut by the president, who complained about deals the team had negotiated, preferring instead to go it alone without them.

'You're fired' — Trump administration casualties

Scott Pruitt

It remained a mystery to many how Pruitt could hang on for so long, but the president seemed to like him. Many on the left cringed at his every move as head of the Environmental Protection Agency. He was also embroiled in various ethics scandals. Nevertheless, Trump took to Twitter to thank Pruitt for doing an "outstanding job" at the EPA.

'You're fired' — Trump administration casualties

Ty Cobb

One of Trump's top lawyers in the ongoing special counsel investigation into Russian involvement in the 2016 presidential election, Cobb said he simply wanted to retire. But many believe he was forced out by Trump and others in his legal team for his lack of aggression in Robert Mueller's Russia probe. Cobb was said to have been increasingly uneasy about Trump's Twitter attacks on Mueller.

'You're fired' — Trump administration casualties

Tom Bossert

White House Homeland Security Adviser Tom Bossert, who had worked for George W. Bush, was reportedly pushed out in the shakeup that occurred after John Bolton replaced H.R. McMaster as national security adviser. It is said that Bolton had no issues with Bossert, but that he wanted his own team in place. The White House thanked Bossert for his "patriotic service" and wished him well.

'You're fired' — Trump administration casualties

David Shulkin

Though the White House said Shulkin resigned, he says he was fired. A holdover from the Obama administration, he was appointed to run the Department of Veteran's Affairs by Trump. His downfall came amid a travel expense scandal involving his wife. He criticized the atmosphere in the administration as "toxic, chaotic, disrespectful and subversive," claiming he was the victim of political intrigue.

'You're fired' — Trump administration casualties

H.R. McMaster

In a tweet on March 22, 2018, US President Trump announced he was replacing H.R. McMaster with John Bolton as his national security adviser. A respected general, McMaster said he would retire from the US army and public service. McMaster's departure was not a complete surprise, as he and Trump are reported to have had conflicting views on a number of US policies.

'You're fired' — Trump administration casualties

Rex Tillerson

A former Exxon executive, Tillerson had served as secretary of state for a little over a year. Donald Trump ousted Tillerson in order to form a "new team" ahead of talks with North Korea, adding that he and Tillerson "disagreed on things." The relationship between them is said to have deteriorated after Tillerson reportedly called Trump a "moron" in October 2017.

'You're fired' — Trump administration casualties

Gary Cohn

A Goldman Sachs veteran, Gary Cohn served as Donald Trump's top economic adviser at the head of the National Economic Council. He helped push through controversial tax reforms in 2017. However, Cohn stepped down in March 2018 after failing to persuade Trump to give up his idea of imposing tariffs on imported steel and aluminum.

'You're fired' — Trump administration casualties

Hope Hicks

Hope Hicks resigned from her post as the White House communications director in late February 2018. A day before resigning, she testified before US lawmakers on Russian interference. She admitted to telling "white lies" for Donald Trump, but not related to Russia. The White House insisted her resignation was not linked to the testimony. The 29-year-old was among Trump's closest aides.

'You're fired' — Trump administration casualties

Rob Porter

The White House staff secretary handed in his resignation after his ex-wives accused him of domestic abuse. Despite resigning, Rob Porter denied the allegations as "simply false." Trump initially defended Porter, and the US media questioned how Porter passed his background check for the job. Recently, reports surfaced of a romance between Porter and Trump's longtime aide Hope Hicks.

'You're fired' — Trump administration casualties

Stephen Bannon

He played a key role in getting Donald Trump into the White House, but even chief strategist Stephen Bannon was ousted within a year. Bannon was a champion of economic nationalism and Trump's "America First" strategy. After the fallout of white supremacist violence in Charlottesville mid-August, Bannon agreed to leave the administration.

'You're fired' — Trump administration casualties

Anthony Scaramucci

The 53-year-old former hedge fund investor nicknamed the "Mooch" was communications director for just 10 days. The colorful New Yorker filled a dream role that had been vacant for months, but was forced out on the same day that straight-shooting former Marine Corps general John Kelly became chief of staff. Trump was displeased with his infamous expletive-laden rant against other senior staff.

'You're fired' — Trump administration casualties

Walter M. Shaub Jr.

Walter Shaub, the former director of the Office of Government Ethics, resigned in July 2017 after clashing with the White House over Trump's complicated financial holdings. Shaub reportedly called Trump's administration a "laughing stock."

'You're fired' — Trump administration casualties

Reince Priebus

Reince Priebus, former White House chief of staff, was forced out just six months into his tenure after a public feud with Anthony Scaramucci, the White House communications director. Priebus was reportedly among those West Wing staffers who had opposed hiring Scaramucci.

'You're fired' — Trump administration casualties

Sean Spicer

Sean Spicer, who had a fraught relationship with the president and the press, resigned after telling Trump he vehemently disagreed with the selection of Anthony Scaramucci as White House communications director.

'You're fired' — Trump administration casualties

Michael Dubke

Michael Dubke, former White House communications director, was asked to leave in May 2017 over what was perceived as his poor handling of allegations of Russian involvement in the US election.

'You're fired' — Trump administration casualties

James Comey

US President Donald Trump fired FBI Director James Comey — allegedly over how he handled the Clinton emails investigation. Critics, however, believe the FBI's probe into Trump's campaign ties with Russia was the real reason.

'You're fired' — Trump administration casualties

Michael Flynn

Trump's national security adviser, Michael Flynn, resigned in February 2017 after revelations that he had discussed US sanctions on Russia with the Russian ambassador to the US before Trump took office, and then misled Vice President Mike Pence about the conversations.

Impeachment becomes possible

As soon as the new Democratic-run House convenes on January 3 next year, impeaching Trump moves from theory to reality. And while top Democrats have so far routinely downplayed calls for impeachment by the so-called anti-Trump resistance movement and by lawmakers demanding a more aggressive stance against the president, the pressure to act could force the party's leaders to pursue it.

"I can't believe [Mueller] has been working all this time just to say: Sorry, nothing to see here," said Lichtman. "I think there are going to be some very serious findings from Mueller directly tying the Trump campaign to the Russians."

What's more, he noted, it is not just the Mueller probe that Trump has to worry about. There are also the various other criminal investigations that extend down to the state level, including one by New York's aggressive attorney general and another by the attorneys general of Maryland and the District of Columbia.

Liability for Republicans?

Lichtman is not just convinced that Trump will be impeached. He also sees an increasing likelihood that Trump will actually be ousted from the presidency, which many other political experts still consider unlikely. If the House votes to impeach Trump, removing him from office requires a two-thirds majority vote in the Senate. Republicans still control that body by a 51-49 majority, meaning a substantial number of GOP lawmakers would have to vote to oust a president who is a member of their own party.

Such a scenario is less unrealistic than it sounds, said Lichtman, pointing to the steady drip of incriminating information from the Mueller probe and Trump's conduct in office, which is beginning to take its toll on Republicans — a sentiment backed up by the recent midterm results. With presidential and Congressional elections in which Senate Republicans face a much less favorable electoral map than this year just around the corner in 2020, the GOP may be ready to cut Trump loose.

With Democrat Nancy Pelosi set to take over as Speaker of the House, life is going to get much tougher for Trump

Pence, not Pelosi

"The way in which Trump could be impeached and removed would be if Republicans think he is going to drag them down with him," said Lichtman. "They don't have any personal loyalty to Trump. They are worried about antagonizing his base and losing Republican primaries. But if they think he is going to be a political liability, they may be willing to abandon him."

He viewed Senator Marco Rubio's recent remark that it would be a "terrible mistake" for Trump to pardon his former campaign manager Paul Manafort as an indicator that some influential Republicans may be ready to reconsider their support for the president, should circumstances merit it.

"Republicans supported [Richard] Nixon until the evidence became so overwhelming that he was a tremendous liability to them," said Lichtman, referring to the former GOP president who resigned in 1974 during the Watergate scandal. "I am not saying he won't survive, but I am saying it's unlikely."

And, he added, "let's not forget: if Trump is removed, they don't get Nancy Pelosi as president; they get Mike Pence, someone whom most Republicans in Congress vastly prefer to Trump."