The model gives him a 44 percent chance of winning Iowa based on the current standing of the candidates and the historic uncertainty of polling-based forecasts. Mr. Romney has a 32 percent chance of winning, while Mr. Gingrich's chances have crashed to 15 percent.

If these numbers hold through January 3 (and given how much things have already changed, that's an enormous if), then Mitt Romney is about to get exactly what he hoped for in Iowa: finishing ahead of any candidate that has a legitimate shot at winning the Republican nomination. But even though the Republican establishment is probably letting loose a big sigh of relief today, there's still two more weeks for all hell to break loose.