November 2018 Newsletter

Tags: November 2018 Newsletter

Oh Where, Oh Where Has The Market Gone?

I had a conversation the other day with a potential client. I referenced that prices were down year over year in their specific neighbourhood and almost instantly lost credibility with this individual. He had just read an article about the most recent TREB (Toronto Real Estate Board) report for October. Prices were up 3.5%. The client questioned my knowledge of the neighbourhood and whether I was even the right Realtor for them. After a lengthy chat about market specifics, it is quite possible this home seller went away clearly determined to not hire me! And I am fine with that. I would rather be honest and honour my fiduciary obligation than give false hope to any client.

So I thought it best to re-visit the discussion about the nuances of the market specific to where you live.

We are learning an incredible lesson in the hyper-local sensitivities of the housing market this year. While all around us, the market seems robust, the area bordered by Highway 48 to the east; Highway 27 to the west; and north from Highway 407 remains sluggish and under-performing.

The absorption rate (number of homes sold compared to number of homes listed) is a telling indicator of the market realities across the GTA. The areas surrounding York Region and Simcoe County are performing normal with just a little over two months of inventory – meaning if no one listed another home, it would take 2 months to sell the remaining listings. Based on historical statistics, the areas surrounding York and Simcoe are in a Seller’s Market.
York Region and Simcoe County, however, have 4 months of inventory currently and the absorption rate in some neighbourhoods is as high as 6 – 7 months of inventory. This has both York and Simcoe in a more Balanced to Buyer’s Market.

On the price side, the lack of inventory is causing prices to rise in the surrounding areas; and abundance of inventory further eroding prices in York and Simcoe. Year over Year prices are up respectively in Durham (1.35%); Peel (3.16%); Dufferin (0.73%); and Toronto (1.94%). Compare this with Simcoe (-0.57%) and York (-6.14%). The Law of Supply and Demand is clearly at work!

Specific communities and neighbourhoods obviously have their own unique inventory and price considerations. As such, please do not base any decision on what you read in the media; hear on the news; or even what we reference in this update. Your goals are specific to you and your family. How best to achieve those goals requires a thorough discussion with a Realtor before making any decisions.

We are here to help and are more than happy to sit down and discuss your plans heading into 2019. We sure hope you will allow us the opportunity to discuss your goals and the market. We care about your goals and how best to achieve them. And we will be honest with you. Care AND candor must be a part of all good discussions when it comes to any real estate decision.