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Friday, December 15, 2017

Key Predictions for Trends in 2018, Part II

When we evaluated trends for 2018, we came up with more than five -- while avoiding politics. Here's what we're calling our Bonus Set of Predictions:

1.The media landscape will change in 2018. Beyond newsroom layoffs and publication shut downs, which
is upsetting, the media landscape will change in other ways in 2018, thanks to
three deals: a DOJ-opposed AT&T -Time Warner combination, a more likely
Sinclair Broadcasting purchase of Tribune Media, and a Disney acquisition of Fox’s
TV and movie studios (but not Fox News, Fox Sports and Fox TV channel). If two
of those three deals go through, expect others as defensive moves. In an Internet of media choices,
consolidation at this level may not be in the consumers’ interest.

2.Artificial
Intelligence and robotics, now interconnected, will continue to be “hot.” A.I. and robotics will be combined in articles (instead of
considered separately as in prior years), and we expect to continue to see
scare stories about a “robocalypse” in which A.I.-enabled robots replace human
workers as well as more-reasoned articles that debunk the scare stories. We’re not as worried because there we think it will open other types
of jobs, and that implementing A.I. seems inevitable because the potential
benefits could be so significant.

3.Innovation
often will come via business models. You might not be able to get a reservation
at that great local restaurant
you’ve been ordering from but that’s because of their delivery-only business
model relies solely on mobile-ordering apps. By eschewing things like
waitstaff, expensive leases, and needing to focus on turnover rates for tables,
these restaurants are able to flourish in a notoriously tough sector. We expect
coverage of that sort of innovation – not so much of technology but in the use
of technology – to continue in 2018.

4.Bitcoin
and blockchain is hitting it big time. Lots of coverage. Still not mainstream
but finally reaches a point where people who haven’t paid attention at least
have heard of the two cryptocurrency terms.

5.Is the internet dying? Longbefore the
(possible) end of net neutrality, somehave predicted that the internet
is dying. The internet (which was once so important it was always capitalized)
has been subsumed by apps and by Amazon, Apple, Facebook, Google and Microsoft,
which control much of the online ecosystem, from app stores to cloud storage to
online ads. Ending net neutrality favors those five companies, while making it
harder for small disruptive startups.

6.The first amendment becomes a battle-ground
issue. Between campus culture wars(regarding who can speak on campus and
who can disrupt those who try to speak on campus),varying definitions
of hate speech and the more-open expression of bigotry, the fight to protect
free speech will generate coverage in 2018. Part of the challenge is a polarize
climate is finding the balance between allowing free expression and preventing
bigoted express.

7.Millennials’ impact
will change how companies market products and services.CurrentlyAmerica’s largest generation (sorry, boomers),
millennials have had a significant impact on the workplace. In 2018, marketers
will increasingly realize they need to change how they reach the 4.8 million
26-year-olds, and the millions of others currently 25, 27 and 24 as they
encounter life-defining moments that include: choosing a career or to enter the
gig economy; buying or renting a place to live, along with renovating or making
repairs; taking on different responsibilities such as paying taxes and keeping
track of their finances, including retirement; getting married, deciding
whether or not to have kids and/or get a pet, and cooking. Millennials’
preferences and needs have already spawned new apps and services to deal with
these responsibilities and choices. For example, we’re seeing a rise in
food-delivery apps from restaurants that offer only takeout (not sit-down)
service because they have a kitchen but no need for a dining room. We also
expect a trend that began in 2017 to continue: companies will continue to
develop educational programs such as classes, online tutorials and how-to
videos on what the Wall St. Journal called “such basic skills as to mow the
lawn, use a tape measure, mop a floor, hammer a nail and pick a paint color.”
We also expect millennial preferences to become the default choice; for
example, doorbells may become vestigial as millennials text, not ring, when
they arrive at a friend’s house.

8.Smart-Home
automation will gain acceptance but still a niche offering. Smart homes are preferred in some markets by some buyers
but not everyone wants them or values them yet. That said, smart home
technology and appliances are getting easier to find, install and deploy. One
possible driver of smart home tech could be counter-intuitive: with a growing
population of seniors aging in their homes, their adult children may insist on
installing tech that can help them monitor their parents. As long as the
internet doesn’t crash, adult children will be able to check in on their
parents, adjust heating and air conditioning (already possible with Nest and
other devices), turn on lights and get help via apps that their parents may not
have figured out. As tech-friendly boomers age in their own homes, expect them
to embrace smart-home technology. We think Internet of Things (IoT) will
continue to be a widely used phrase but that “smart home” is a more
user-friendly term that may be easier to market. By the way, the biggest smart
home tech segment will continue to be intelligent personal assistants like Amazon
Alexa and Google Home speakers.

9.The ranks of unicorn startups will grow but expect a
backlash because unicorns are difficult to sustain. There’s a lot of money being thrown around, which is why we
expect some of the enthusiasm for unicorns to diminish. It’s been very
difficult to maintain a $1 billion-plus valuation in a meaningful exit. Also, we
think New York Times tech columnist Farhad Manjoo is right when he said, a
continued threat for startups is that just “fewer than 1 percent … end up as $1
billion companies” and that the Frightful Five (Amazon, Apple, Google, Facebook
and Microsoft) can out-pay key employees (an issue in the A.I. space), out
maneuver or just invest in startups and co-opt them.

10.Religious nonprofits will be able to publicly make political
endorsements, but doing so will change how they are perceived. As this is written, the GOP is discussing whether to
eliminate the Johnson Amendment, which prohibits nonprofits from endorsing political
candidates. We think Congress will repeal Johnson because it’s a campaign
promise President Trump made. However, we think – and some, who otherwise hold
opposing views, agree that it will affect how American’s perception when
religious organizations are turned into political action committees.

In our next post, we will post a set of ongoing trends that we think are important to keep in mind.