The trend estimate for short-term visitor arrivals to Australia during June 2005 (449,800 movements) decreased by 0.8% compared with May 2005. This followed monthly decreases of 0.6% for April 2005 and 0.8% for May 2005.

Currently, short-term visitor arrivals are 2.5% lower than when the series last peaked in February 2005 (461,300 movements) and 3.8% higher than in June 2004.

During June 2005, short-term resident departures (397,600 movements) increased by 0.9% when compared with May 2005. This followed monthly increases of 0.7% for April 2005 and 0.9% for May 2005.

Currently, short-term resident departures are 39.1% higher than when the series last troughed in April 2003 (285,900 movements) and 11.5% higher than in June 2004.

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATES

The seasonally adjusted estimate for short-term visitor arrivals during June 2005 (449,300 movements) increased by 1.6% compared with May 2005. This increase followed decreases of 1.8% for April 2005 and 3.8% for May 2005.

Short-term resident departures for June 2005 (410,600 movements) increased by 4.9% compared with May 2005 and followed increases of 0.2% for April 2005 and 1.0% for May 2005.

ORIGINAL ESTIMATES

In original movement terms, there were 379,800 short-term visitor arrivals to Australia and 450,000 short-term resident departures from Australia during June 2005.

NOTES

EARLY ESTIMATES

Early estimates of short-term visitor arrivals for July 2005 will be available on the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) web site on 17 August 2005. These estimates can be accessed by going to the AusStats web page <http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats> and selecting Publications & Data and then Main Features. Select 34 Migration and then select Short-term Visitor Arrival Estimates, Australia (cat. no. 3401.0.55.001).

DATA NOTES

This publication contains movement data. Care should be taken when interpreting this movement data as 'people'. See paragraph 5 of the Explanatory Notes for more detail.

Calculations of percentage and numeric change are based on unrounded data. See paragraph 12 of the Explanatory Notes for more detail.

CHANGES IN THIS ISSUE

As advised in the previous issue of this publication time series spreadsheets released in association with this product are now presented in Excel format.

INQUIRIES

For further information about these and related statistics, contact the National Information and Referral Service on 1300 135 070 or Anne Ward on Canberra (02) 6252 6871.

MAIN FEATURES

SHORT-TERM VISITOR ARRIVALS

In trend terms, short-term visitor arrivals to Australia in June 2005 (449,800 movements) have increased by 3.8% when compared with June 2004. Currently, short-term visitor arrivals are 2.5% lower than when the series last peaked in February 2005 (461,300 movements). Prior to that month, short-term visitor arrivals had increased each month from February 2004 (424,900 movements).

The following table presents the top ten source countries (based on original estimates) for short-term visitor arrivals during June 2005. Seasonally adjusted and trend estimates are also presented for these countries, along with the trend percentage change compared with May 2005 and June 2004.

Short-term Visitor Arrivals, Major Source Countries - June 2005

Trend

Seasonally Adjusted

Original

May 05 to Jun 05

Jun 04 to Jun 05

'000

'000

'000

Trend % change

Trend % change

New Zealand

92.9

87.7

90.3

-0.6

6.9

United States of America

37.9

38.4

42.6

-0.4

2.3

Japan

50.2

51.3

42.2

-3.4

-11.7

Singapore

23.1

22.8

30.7

0.1

15.4

United Kingdom

58.0

58.3

30.1

-1.7

0.1

Korea

23.0

23.1

18.0

2.2

29.0

China

19.6

(a)np

14.1

-2.9

-1.5

Hong Kong

13.7

14.3

12.4

1.7

24.3

Malaysia

14.1

14.2

11.0

0.3

-3.8

Taiwan

9.6

9.7

9.5

1.5

15.4

(a) Seasonally adjusted data for short-term visitor arrivals from China is of an unpublishable standard.

SHORT-TERM RESIDENT DEPARTURES

In trend terms, short-term resident departures from Australia in June 2005 (397,600 movements) have increased by 11.5% when compared with June 2004 and are 39.1% higher than when the series last troughed in April 2003 (285,900 movements).

The following table presents the top ten destinations (based on original estimates), for short-term resident departures during June 2005. Seasonally adjusted and trend estimates are also presented for these countries, along with the trend percentage change compared with May 2005 and June 2004.

Short-term Resident Departures, Major Destinations - June 2005

Trend

Seasonally Adjusted

Original

May 05 to Jun 05

Jun 04 to Jun 05

'000

'000

'000

Trend % change

Trend % change

New Zealand

70.4

73.0

56.0

-

4.9

United Kingdom

34.8

36.8

49.5

2.9

11.4

United States of America

34.7

35.5

42.5

0.5

8.5

Indonesia

30.4

31.1

36.7

-0.7

10.0

China

20.1

20.3

19.0

1.5

33.9

Singapore

14.8

16.0

17.6

-0.4

17.7

Thailand

15.2

16.5

17.3

-

2.8

Fiji

16.2

16.0

17.1

0.1

15.3

Hong Kong

16.5

17.7

16.3

3.5

40.1

Malaysia

13.4

12.2

13.2

-1.4

20.0

- nil or rounded to zero (including null cells)

SHORT-TERM TRAVEL - THE YEAR 2004-05

Short-term visitor arrivals

In original terms, there were 5.4 million short-term visitor arrivals in Australia in the year ended June 2005. This is the highest number of arrivals ever recorded for a financial year. In the year ended June 2004 there were 5.1 million visitor arrivals. Twenty years ago (1984-85), 1.1 million short-term visitors arrived in a year in Australia.

The top source countries for short-term visitor arrivals during the year ended June 2005 were New Zealand (20%), Japan and the United Kingdom (each 13%), the United States of America (8%) and China and Singapore (each 5%).

Just over half of all short-term visitors to Australia in the year ended June 2005 stated the main reason for journey as holiday (53%) followed by visiting friends and relatives (20%) and business (10%). During this period the median age of short-term visitors was 39 years while the median duration of intended stay was 10 days.

New South Wales was the intended state of stay for 39% of all short-term visitors to Australia in the year ended June 2005. The other preferred destinations were Queensland (29%), Victoria (17%) and Western Australia (9%).

Short-term resident departures

In original terms, a record 4.6 million Australian residents travelled overseas for short-term visits during the year ended June 2005. This compared with 3.9 million in the year ended June 2004. Twenty years ago (1984-85), there were 1.5 million residents departing short-term in a year.

The top destination countries for short-term residents departing during the year ended June 2005 were New Zealand (18%), the United States of America (9%), the United Kingdom (8%), Indonesia (7%) and China (5%).

Just under half of all short-term residents departing Australia in the year ended June 2005 stated the main reason for travel as holiday (47%) followed by visiting friends and relatives (25%) and business (15%). The median age of all residents departing short-term was 41 years while the median duration of intended stay was 15 days.

As would be expected the most populous states were the largest contributors to short-term travel overseas in the year ended June 2005. Residents of New South Wales contributed the highest proportion of travellers (39%) followed by Victoria (24%), Queensland (17%), Western Australia (12%), South Australia (5%), the Australian Capital Territory (2%) and Tasmania and the Northern Territory (each 1%).

In terms of the rate of movement for short-term resident departures (the number of movements per 1,000 state or territory population) there was considerable variation across the states and territories in the year ended June 2005. The Australian Capital Territory had the highest movement rate (282 movements per 1,000 population) followed by Western Australia (266), New South Wales (265), Victoria (222), Queensland (195), the Northern Territory (190), South Australia (139) and Tasmania (98).

PERMANENT AND LONG-TERM MOVEMENTS

There were 9,970 permanent (settler) arrivals into Australia during June 2005, a decrease of 0.9% when compared with June 2004 (10,060 movements). People born in the United Kingdom accounted for the largest proportion of settlers (16%) followed by New Zealand (14%) and China (8%).

Statistics on overseas arrivals and departures relate to the number of movements of travellers rather than the number of travellers. Therefore, care should be taken when using long-term movements data as it is known that some individuals who travel multiple times in a year are counted each time they cross Australia's borders (see paragraph 5 of the Explanatory Notes). Long-term movements in this publication are not an appropriate source of migration statistics. For further information refer to Australian Demographic Statistics (cat. no. 3101.0).

There were 4,310 Australian residents departing permanently from Australia during June 2005, an increase of 2.6% when compared with June 2004 (4,200 movements).

STATISTICAL SIGNIFICANCE

The above presentation of movements in estimates does not take into account whether the change in movement is statistically significant. Care should be taken when interpreting the impact of numeric and/or percentage change. Please see the Standard Errors section of this issue for more detail.

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED AND TREND ESTIMATES

INTRODUCTION

Seasonally adjusted and trend estimates add to the understanding of Overseas Arrivals and Departures (OAD) statistics. Seasonally adjusted estimates allow users to analyse short-term movements including irregular impacts on the series, while trend estimates provide a better method to analyse and monitor the underlying direction of the short-term movement series. In most cases, the trend series is the best source of information on the long-term direction of these statistics.

SHORT-TERM VISITOR ARRIVALS

Selected source countries

The graphs presented below illustrate the long-term increase in the trend series for arrivals from the United Kingdom and New Zealand and the significant impact of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) on arrivals from Japan earlier in 2003.

United KingdomNew ZealandJapan

SHORT-TERM RESIDENT DEPARTURES

Selected destinations

For residents departing to the United States of America the graph illustrates the effect that the terrorist attacks in that country on 11 September 2001 had on short-term departures of Australian residents to the United States of America. The graph for New Zealand illustrates that departures of Australian residents, which had been trending upwards since May 2003, appear to have stalled. For Indonesia the graph shows a return to expected resident departures levels after the influence of the Indian Ocean tsunami of 26 December 2004.

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