Robinson Cano wants $305 million for his services over the next 10 years. I greet this revelation with a great big shrug. For one thing, I never thought the Cubs were likely to be seriously – or even un-seriously – involved in bidding for Cano, regardless of where that bidding ended up. For another thing, this is always how the dance starts. Sure, the starting price here is a bit over the top – should Cano, who turns 31 in October, net the biggest contract in baseball history? – but this is the general direction of things. Sometimes it works (look at the deal Prince Fielder got), and sometimes it doesn’t (most other guys with ridiculous September demands). For their part, the Yankees started out negotiations in the eight year, $138 million range, and bumped it up to the seven-year, $165 range when the first offer was refused. That’s a hell of a gap to make up, and it could lead to Cano departing from the Yanks. If the Dodgers don’t get in on the bidding, though, it’s tough to figure out what team is going to drop $300 million on Cano. I just don’t see it happening. I could see $200 million happening, but I have trouble seeing Cano topping a Pujols deal (10 years and $240 million).

Speaking of big demands, Scott Boras tells Jon Heyman he thinks $100 million for client Shin-Soo Choo is too low. Executives peg Choo closer to the B.J. Upton/Michael Bourn range (four to five years, $50 to $75 million), the top end of which sounds right to me. Let us not forget that it wasn’t much later than this time last year when Boras was trumpeting Bourn as a $100 million player. The market fell out from under Bourn, particularly as teams considered the impact of a lost draft pick, and he settled for half of the ask. I doubt the same happens to Choo, given that last year’s outfield market was much more robust. The Cubs have been connected to Choo, and they’ll have the benefit of a protected first round pick when it comes to pursuing a top free agent. Would they go to $100 million for Choo? I see no conceivable way.

The Mets, who are one of the other publicly-identified suitors of Choo, are reportedly not interested in going past four years for the corner outfielder (currently playing center field). It’s conceivable that Choo will settle for four years, so that doesn’t take the Mets out of the mix. They also say they don’t care about whether they have a protected pick (currently, they’d be in the 12th spot – only the top 10 are protected), but I’m not so sure I buy it. Is Choo worth top dollar AND the number 12 pick in the first round to a rebuilding team like the Mets?

Danny Knobler writes about the impending, probable trade of David Price. With two years under control after this year – and a very expensive extension looming – Knobler figures now is the time to maximize Price’s value. Price, 28, has bounced back from a terrible start to the year, and then a short-term arm injury, and he’s actually posted the best FIP of his career (3.05, tied with last year). His velocity is down a couple MPH, though, and the first sign an arm injury – any arm injury – makes you a little nervous about trading a huge cache of prospects for the privilege of paying him huge, long-term money. If he’s shopped, it’ll be interesting to see how involved the Cubs become. They’ve obviously got the pieces to land Price if they want to make it happen, and the Cubs make as much sense for Price as almost any other team, given the five-to-seven-year window for which he would theoretically be acquired.

Another successful Cuban pitcher has defected from the island. Raicel Iglesias is a smaller 23-year-old righty who can throw in the mid-90s and put up solid numbers in Cuba. Because he’s 23, he would not be subject to any signing restrictions, but he’s thought to be more of a prospect than a step-right-in kind of guy. Sounds like a player in whom the Cubs would have interest, depending on what the scouts are saying.

… but defection stories like Iglesias’s could be a thing of the past, if a move by Cuba to professionalize baseball pushes things in the direction it could. Cuba is going to let its players compete in foreign leagues and make money in the process, so long as they are available to play on the national team and in the primary Cuban league (starts in November). It’s not clear if this means players could simply up and sign with MLB teams (subject to the U.S. unblocking process), but it kind of seems like that could be the way things are going. That way, Cuba could make money off of its top players earning huge contracts in the U.S. (by taking taxes), rather than just see them defect and leave forever. How that would work, given the U.S. ban on doing business with Cuba, however, is also unclear. This is a bit complicated.

I would love to see Cuba open up like that. It’s a shame that a lot of great ballplayers have to go through such incredible hardship to get to the states. Same goes for all defectors, amazingly gifted at baseball or not

North Side Irish

Jon Sickels posted his Post Season Top 75 prospects list…Cubs have five in the Top 41 and six on the list overall. Pierce Johnson and Vogelbach both made the Honorable Mention list.

Irish, dont forget Alcantera was in the 50’s
So basically 8 of the top 100ish. What a
difference a couple of years makes.

Scotti

That “honorable mention” list was huge. That’s more like a top 120. And, for that matter, it’s his “end of year gut feel” list.

On The Farm

Thanks for this, I am still not a believer that Correa should be ahead of Baez, even if he is a number one pick. Not to discount what Correa did this season, but what Baez did across two levels is more impressive to me. Our Big four are in the top 27 (28 if Gausman was able to be ranked)

Also note Cards have (#10, 14, 47), Reds have (#13, 46, 57), and Pirates (#12, 21, 29, 39, 51). The Reds Stephenson (#13 was said to be a future top 5 for those who dont want to actually read all of the list). And all/most of the Cards are on MLB roster already

“22) Albert Almora, OF, Chicago Cubs. Pre-season 44, July 18. The Cubs are going to have one hell of a lineup someday.”

Can “someday” get here soon?

wilbur

Try tuesday for a starter.

Kyle

I think at this point I’m willing to say that this crop of prospects is the best in my lifetime, eclipsing the early 2000s.

ssckelley

I agree, I said this a couple of months ago. The fun part about this is if these guys went out to top 150 or 200 they would be peppered with Cubs prospects as well. I still think Mike Olt can come back from his eye and concussion issues, Hendricks cannot be that far off, Corey Black is up and coming, Neil Ramirez had a good season in AA, and because of injuries people have written off Arodys Vizcaino. I don’t remember the 2000-2002 group of prospects being this good and this deep.

http://www.shadowsofwrigley.com TC

Also, I simply hate the idea of trading a bunch of hitting prospects (generally safer than pitching prospects) for the right to give a pitcher with a lot of mileage on his arm $200 million dollars one year before he goes to free agency. The Cubs aren’t One David Price away from competing, and you don’t need a #1 to win a championship (just have to have a good rotation otherwise) and putting so much stock into one player could be really really risky.

Funn Dave

That’s what I was thinking. Just going over possible packages in my head, it’s hard to come up with a trade that might actually go through that doesn’t put a significant damper on our farm system’s improvement.

Funn Dave

If we could somehow make the trade without giving up any of the Big Four, though, that might be a different story. We’d lose a lot more depth but less major league impact.

praying the cubs get ready to win

Rizzo,Castro and Barney for Price

Clark Addison

Our Cuba policy is stupid and self defeating. The Cold War ended 25 years ago. Two countries are being held hostage by a handful of Miami expats.

fromthemitten

Not to mention it’s a violation of international law

Cub Style

International law means about as much as RBI totals.

Eric

I hope we steer well clear of Mr. Price. I would probably be sick to my stomach if we traded a cache of prospects for him.

cub2014

What do you think we would have to trade
to get Price? Soler,Cabrera or Raley,Pinyero
or Black or Johnson, and a lower level
guy? I would make that trade. I would even
throw in Barney.

willis

They’d start with Baez. I think the cubs could do a Voges, Alcantara, P. Johnson and Cabrera type package, with a couple other low level prospects and that may get it done. He’s going to be traded…Rays will have a bidding war for him. I don’t want Soler or Baez included. Anybody else they can have.

DarthHater

Rays won’t be interested in Soler’s contract.

cub2014

Rays dont want a 3.3M a year contract. That
contract will be a 3rd of what it will cost to get
a #4 or #5 starter in 3-4 years.

On The Farm

Considering they would be paying $3.3M for him to play AA/AAA next season, and his contract has incentives to make more money than the average player (i.e. he makes 3.3M during his “league min” years) and he gets the greater of his contract or arbitration, yeah, I am sure the Rays don’t want any part of that contract.

cub2014

No Soler is arbitration eligible after 3 years
of MLB service.

On The Farm

Uh yeah I know that, but he gets 30 million over 9 years so his first years where he should be making league minimum (like the Angels taking advantage of Trout) he would get paid $3.3 million. THEN when he is arb eligible, he can opt out of his contract if he can make more money through arbitration.

DarthHater

Yes, but they can probably find another team to offer them a prospect as good as Soler with a more attractive contract.

Mike

We all know Darth knows everything. You’re such a bada$$.

cub2014

Soler, Vogelbach I could see letting go. But I feel
like you have to keep Alcantera(power/speed)
at 2B) and Baez will not be traded their is no
way. So Soler,Johnson,Cabrera,Dungston,Leal
would be a great haul for the Rays (more than I think
the Cubs would give up) I guess its hard to say.
I am sure they are looking for their next Chris Archer.

On The Farm

Again they are looking to save money trading Price, they won’t want Soler’s contract. Cabrera is out of options so unless they think he is ready for the rotation they would have to put him in the bullpen right away. As for Dunston (hasn’t played above A- ball) and Leal (hasn’t played above Rookie ball) it seems more Cubs lopsided.

If anything if they move Baez to 2B (because they think Bryant or Olt will be the 3B) Alcantara is the most expendable.

cms0101

They won’t move Price without Baez. Nor will Miami move Stanton without Baez. If Bryant were eligible maybe they’d consider him. They may be able to get lesser players, but still good major leaguers, for packages that include Vogelbach and Alcantara.

On The Farm

Soler is not an attractive trade chip to teams looking to save money based on his contract structure. He is allowed to take the greater of his guaranteed contract money or arbitration (and is already a 40 man roster spot). As for Soler, Cabrera or Raley, Pinyero/Black/Johnson deal. Can’t see that getting it done. James Shields netted one of the best offensive prospects in baseball (Myers) +. Cabrera or Raley (both likely bullpen guys) aren’t attractive trade pieces. Nor is “I would even throw in Barney”, a team like the Rays (who are desperate for offense) aren’t going to want a defensive oriented 2B. Black is described as a future RP, (probably Pinyero too, don’t know much about his projections, but he doesn’t project to be anything more than a mid rotation guy anyway). That leaves Johnson who is another fringe RP/mid-rotation guy.

My guess, Almora, Vogelbach, Johnson or Edwards, and probably some more filler.

When the Music’s Over

I’ve said this before, but if the trade scenario you put together in your mind is something you are totally cool with or it’s a no brainer, you are probably a ways off in value.

Trading prospects for star level players, such as David Price, will hurt and not just a little bit.

Think Baez, Almora or Bryant (ignoring trade rules and focusing on value) as the centerpiece of the trade, and add in another 3 more top 15 Cub prospects (with at least 2 of them being in the top 10), and another power reliever type of player.

Probably something in the vicinity of Baez, Soler, Johnson, Candaliero and Cabrera (insert power reliever of your choice, such as Ramirez or Black). And because it’s the Rays, they would probably consider that a light package.

cub2014

Music based on your scenario we dont
have to worry about that trade because the
Cubs would never do it.

On The Farm

Exactly. Do you think the Royals liked trading away Wil Myers? Hell no. Price will cost more than Wil Myers because he is better than Shields.

cub2014

True for Shields the Royals gave up
the equivalent of Baez and Cabrera.
The Rays are very shrewd, Price is
better but older, you would have to
compensate w/o Baez additional
prospects but I think it could be done.

On The Farm

Wrong, Shields was born in 1981, Price was born in 1985, so he is 4ish years younger. And with seasons over 100 IP, Price has averaged 3.68 WAR (with a Cy Young award) and Shields has averaged 3.475 WAR. Price is much more expensive.

And who do you think Cabrera is? I think the pitchers the Royals sent to the Rays were at least in the top 100 (if not at least one in the top 50). Cabrera isn’t even one of our two top pitching prospects, and Pierce Johnson isn’t even a top 100 by most.

cub2014

My bad on age of shields didnt look it
up before I typed. I would have to say
the Royals were being the Royals. They
got crushed on that deal. So maybe you
are right if that is what it takes it is probably
not likely from the Cubs standpoint.

When the Music’s Over

The cost for price is going to be just below the cost prohibitive point where teams wouldn’t ever consider trading for him. You know, that line where you go from no f*cking way, to ah, f*ck it, I’m getting screwed hard here, but let’s do it. That’s how they typically operate, and for them it seems to work.

Professor Snarks

We have to look at this realistically. The Cubs will NOT be able to acquire any star player (CarGo, Stanton or Price) without including Baez. It just won’t happen. You could make an argument that Baez and Bryant have separated themselves, if just a little bit, from Almora and Soler (hopefully the latter two have a great AFL). Bryant cannot be traded yet, so the Cubs crown jewel is Baez. And no team is going to let the Cubs substitute 3 or 4 lesser guys for Baez.

On The Farm

What can’t be mentioned enough in trade suggestions is this: people who have jobs in Front Offices in major league baseball are a lot smarter than the people who comment on blogs. If there is ever a trade scenario that is proposed online and you are okay with letting that player go, I would say 9 times out of 10 the opposing FO is thinking we don’t want him.

When the Music’s Over

This is exactly what I say. Too many people are far to comfortable with what they’re willing to give up and 95% of the time that’s because they’re trade scenarios are very lopsided.

When the Music’s Over

The Rays have an unusual ability to get more than one would think they should in trades.

praying the cubs get ready to win

Castro, Rizzo and Barney.

fromthemitten

RE Cuba: Not going to happen. The United States has a ban on issuing visas to Cuban nationals as part of the Cuban Embargo

When the Music’s Over

If players are playing an entire MLB season and the entire Cuban season, if I was a GM, I’d expect to pay only 60-70% of MLB market pay for their services.

SenorGato

With the reactions the Cano asking price is getting – hilarious as usual from the internet – I would say the Cubs should not pussy out at step one. I think the Cubs are legit sleepers for Cano and they dang well should be.

Meh on Choo. I like him as RFer for 2-3 years probably, but anything more I’m not really interested.

I still think that if the Rays trade Price then Zobrist could/should be available as well. He’s their oldest and most expensive player who will probably be hitting FA next year. Maybe look for a deal where you can land him with Price. There are other Rays who would be interesting as secondary pieces too.

cub2014

Based on the prospects that are coming,
and 2 of the 3 cornerstones hit righty
the Cubs need left handed hitting OBP
outfielders to take the next step. Choo and
CarGo maybe? That gives you flexability if
a couple of the big 5 flame out. Except for
Alcantera they are all Right handed.

On The Farm

How in the world are the Cubs going to get CarGo, and still have security if some of the big 5 flame out. Trading for CarGo would be expensive.

cub2014

If you add Choo someone like CarGo
and sign Tanaka or trade for Price
you are on the verge of a contender.
CarGo according to reports can be had
for Arrieta/Schierholtz and a couple minor
league prospects. The issue will be an extra
40-50m if Choo is priced right and CarGo
contract is a pretty good contract. Price
or Tanaka will be the expensive long term
issues.

I am not saying it happens but I can see senarios
where it is possible w/o giving up Baez,Bryant
Almora or Edwards

On The Farm

What reports are saying CarGo can be had for a SP with control issues and a platoon RF? Hell yeah I want one of the best OFers in the game for that. The reality is people will look at our farm system and want one of our big prospects (and small market teams won’t want Soler, when they can find a prospect of equal positional value at a fraction of the cost)

cub2014

It was a few weeks back on Cubs Den
based on a report out of Denver that
the Rockies are rebuilding and had interest
in Arrieta, an outfielder to fill-in for Gonzalez
while they groom a rook and they were
lookin for possible 1B since Helton was
retiring

On The Farm

In my uninformed opinion, if Colorado called and said Arrieita, Vogelbach, and Schierholtz for CarGo. I feel like our FO would have jumped at that opportunity.

cub2014

Farm I agree, so that offer hasnt gone
down yet. Probably a rumor, of course
CarGo has the issue with his finger.

jt

But when you include one of the big 4 prospects and that prospect is the guy who would eventually be the guy who most closely replaces CarGo then the perception changes a bit.
CarGo’s talent is confirmed and that of Almora is not. So, there has to be more to the pie. But if The Cubs were willing to include Almora I believe a deal could get done.
There is little chance of it happening but a lineup of Choo, Stalin, CarGo, Beef, Rizzo, Sweeney/Lake, Valbuena/?, anyBodyButBarney with a rotation of Tanaka, Wood, Shark, Jackson, MedleyFromTheHeap would compete for a playoff spot.
That is not a great rotation but the depth of the BP over time could and would pick up innings the SP’ers didn’t get to.

praying the cubs get ready to win

What about Arietta, (Rizzo or Castro), Barney and Sheirholz for Cargo?

praying the cubs get ready to win

Arietta and Vogelbach or Rizzo to solve 1B for Cargo?

jt

“What reports are saying CarGo can be had for a SP with control issues and a platoon RF? ”
The Den had something like that going.
Yeah, though I like John as much as Brett and Luke, I didn’t buy it either.
But add Almora, Cabrera and perhaps C. Villanueva and there is an interesting package that The Cubs could afford to lose.

mjhurdle

It is all just rumor, started by people thinking it would make sense and speculation that the Cardinals would make a run at Tulo.
The Rockies front office is on record to the Denver Post that they have no intentions of trading either Tulo or CarGo this off-season.
Of course that would change if someone gave them a crazy offer, but it would definitely take more than Arrieta and Scheiholtz to even get them to pick up the phone.

Lou Brown

That velocity loss is like a klaxon going off. I would tread really lightly on a Price trade.

DarthHater

For using the word klaxon, you win the internet for today.

Lou Brown

AWESOME! Where do I pick that up at?

wilbur

be patient, it’ll be delivered.

wilbur

they have to wait for the truck to get back from dropping off the turnips.

cub2014

Price velocity is back and his results
are the usual. But their is always risk
but not as much as counting on 5 or 6
rookies

Lou Brown

Is it back? I am going off the article, which said down 2mph. Which a consistent 2 mph drop could be dead arm, could also mean something is still damaged. Kind of like the car burning oil, it results in you getting to work, but for how much longer?

All I know is the last 2 times the Cubs paid a lot of money for an outfielder who looked like an on base + slugging guy, it really didn’t turn out well.

Chef Brian

300 mil for Cano? Over 100 mil for Choo? No thanks. I think Choo’s situation will play out the same way that Bourn’s did. He will sign late while teams try to figure out whether he’s worth the dollars/loss of a first round pick.

Jay

Even Scott Boras wouldn’t throw out those kind of numbers if he was repping Cano. This is pure Jay-Z idiocy–a guy who has a bunch of homies who have no idea how this baseball works.

On The Farm

Jay-Z knows how to negotiate. He landed Beyonce. He liked it, and promptly put a ring on it.

Jay-Z got into Cuba too. I wonder if he made any contact with any of their ball players.

cub2014

Choo has had OBP of .390 the last 6
years but your probably right if the Cubs
sign him he will suck. Boo-hoo

Spoda17

Nothing against Price… but I would pass…

wilbur

Dont have to pass, just have to wait. See if cost drops around spring training and how Price’s health looks then and his velo. If cost still too high can wait until trade deadline. Baez might be on big league roster then, and off prospect list. Bryant not eligible for trade yet and Soler too costly. So that leaves Almora or someone off big league roster to headline trade. Maybe Shark or Castro would be on the table then too, who knows. But as we just saw from the Garza deal things change as you move along to the trade deadline. And the cubs aren’t time pressured to make a deal, their window hasn’t even opened yet. What other team would be interested the Rangers again?

DAMMIT!!!! Watkins should be playing instead of Barney! What the hell is wrong with Sveum?

See this is the kind of crap that will get him fired.

Jon

Barney’s regression is more likely to get him fired vs not playing Watkins.

Gutshot5820

If he is that bad, what is he doing playing everyday?

AB

I can’t believe the Cubs aren’t giving consistent playing time to one of their worst everyday hitters in the PCL this year. Unbelievable!!!

Jon

lol

ssckelley

Is that the best you got? Damn, I laid it up there nice for you.

Noah

I think you’re vastly overestimating how much Cubs’ management cares if Logan Watkins gets playing time. At best Watkins is Mark DeRosa with more speed but much less power, and with more Ks than DeRosa. Barney continues to play very good defense, and the best value for the Cubs is if he puts up an OPS in the high .600s/low .700s next season and can be traded when Alcantara or Baez are called up.

CubbieBubba

I wish the Cubs had 10 Mark Derosas (Derosai?)
..pre-wrist injury

http://www.facebook.com/anotherspacesong Bret Epic

Unfortunately, his OPS this season is a .578 and his WAR is a -0.3. He’s also never had an OPS above .666 and that was his first full year in the majors.

TWC

“He’s also never had an OPS above .666 …”

What is it with you Watkins haters? First you claim he’s not a good baseball player, then you start calling him Satan! Amazing.

http://www.facebook.com/anotherspacesong Bret Epic

I was talking about Darwin Barney…

TWC

I was, I thought, quite obviously joking. Must have been blinded by the number of the beast.

http://www.facebook.com/anotherspacesong Bret Epic

I never know when someone is joking anymore around here. People seem to really jump on each other lately. Sorry about that.

TWC

Nah, I’m just embarrassed that I missed the opportunity to call Darwin Barney “Satan”. That’s even funnier to me than calling Watkins the devil.

Kyle

When his BABIP recovers to reasonable (though still low) levels, he’ll continue to be a useful player.

And of course, I suspect our front office has slightly better defensive metrics than Baseball Reference.

http://www.facebook.com/anotherspacesong Bret Epic

I do think Darwin Barney is a player who is very baseball smart and defensively gifted. That being said, it also comes down to overall ability. The Cubs as a team overall have solid defense, but if there’s a chance to trade Barney with all the upcoming options at 2nd base, I would jump on the idea of doing so. I like Barney, just not more than Alcantara and Baez.

Kyle

I do, too.

Wtihin a year, Baez>Alcantara>Barney>Watkins.

http://www.facebook.com/anotherspacesong Bret Epic

What’s your opinion on the projected “cluttered” infield? Can’t really fit Baez, Alcantara, Castro, Rizzo and Bryant all in their projected positions. Who do you think is going to make a position change?

Kyle

I don’t think you give the slightest thought to anybody who isn’t breaking down the door of the major leagues.

Right now, that’s Baez and that’s it.

The odds that all five of those guys are simultaneously good MLB infielders is pretty slim, and if it comes to that, you either move one to the outfield or trade one. No big deal.

MightyBear

Bryant

MightyBear

Bryant is closer than people think. He’ll be hitting for the Cubs next year and before September.

bret epic

It is slim, but I just figured it might be discussion worthy. Alcantara is probably gonna be in Iowa with Baez, so he might not be too far off and with how advanced Bryant is, I suspect he’ll be with us sometime by mid 2015.

jt

I realize that you can not make up numbers but the difference twixt the 2013 Alcantara OPS and that of C. Villanueva was 10 BB. Given that Villanueva is considered the better defensive player, why is he not considered in the same group?

bret epic

Good point.

wilbur

What if Olt starts the year at third on big cubs?

ssckelley

I am hoping 3rd base is a competition between Murphy, Olt, and Villanueva. I believe Villanueva has to go on the 40 man roster if the Cubs want to protect him.

On The Farm

“At best Watkins is Mark DeRosa with more speed but much less power, and with more Ks than DeRosa”

It’s kind of funny to compare a player to another one and then have like three big differences. That’s like me saying Barney is like Robinson Cano, with a lot less power, better defense, and will get on base less than Cano.

Professor Snarks

So what is worse? This line-up? Or the possibility this could be next years opening day line-up?
Ouch.

Gutshot5820

Larry Beinfest just fired from the Marlins. I wouldn’t mind the Cubs hiring him as an addition to the current braintrust. Especially, since there is a chance we may lose Mcleod. Veinfest has done a great job recognizing talent and rebuilding…twice.

wilbur

He was there twelve years, not a bad run. With that owner, miraculous even.

Good Captain

He must have asked for a raise.

Soda Popinski

Agreed. I really hope we get a few more years out of Mcleod. It doesn’t look too likely, though.

#1lahairfan

Oof it would suck if we lost McLeod.

Benjamin

I don’t see there being any way the US allows American money to flow into Cuba. At least not for as long as the embargo is in place, and that isn’t going anywhere any time soon.

http://Isa Voice of reason

The cubs will have a very strong lineup in a couple of years. Until then we will have to be patient.

They are not dumping money into choo or cano or ells bury and they are not trading for price.

First of all if they sign chop or ellsbury they will still lose 90 games next year. We need to let the kids develop them sign free agents based on need in two years.

And, the rays are going to want way too much for price and he has a lot of innings on that arm. Remember what we gave up for garza and what the royals gave for shields? No thanks.

Brains

Wait 4 years and they might try if our minor leaguers turnout to be superstars. History tells us that most prospects wont make it past a few years in the bigs. In the meantime ownership will reap insane amounts of unspent profits while we pay $50 for a ticket and in fight. No thanks to that logic. It’s the logic defeatism and complacency.

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