000
FXUS63 KJKL 220001
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
701 PM EST Wed Feb 21 2018
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 457 PM EST WED FEB 21 2018
Late this afternoon a cold front was positioned just northwest of
the VA border and was about to stall. Showers which were occurring
along the front have diminished somewhat. Scattered showers will
continue to cross the region into the night, but a relative lull
is expected. A large area of precipitation was occurring to our
west and southwest this afternoon, from LA to southern IN. It was
associated with moist flow off the Gulf impinging on the frontal
boundary, and being coupled with the right entrance region of an
upper leveljet. The heaviest precip was on the southern end. This
regime will shift northeast tonight. Models have struggled to an
extent with the position of the heaviest precip. A blended
solution suggests that although more rain can be expected in the
northwest portion of our area late tonight, the heaviest precip
should be just to our northwest. For that reason, have decided to
forego a FloodWatch. However, the situation will continue to be
monitored, especially for the far northwest portion of the
forecast area, just in case it pans out differently.
Precip could linger into Thursday morning, especially in the
northern part of the area, but after that a relative lull should
occur. Models have depicted another round of rain moving in from
the southwest late Thursday or Thursday evening, but show even
more variation in their solutions. The latest 18Z NAM has come in
very bullish, but is not backed up well by the GFS for the
amounts. Hence, confidence is not very high at this point.
In terms of precip type, a mix of stratiform and convective rain
is expected, but have not included thunder. There were a few
lightning strikes this afternoon in our area, but the activity
weakened and does not look very impressive any longer.
Temperatures will be a challenge. The wavering frontal boundary
and its exact position will play a critical role. Temporal
temperature curves will also show some nondiurnal tendencies.
These things considered, have loaded a blend of model data into
the hourly grids and derived the max and min readings from this.
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 312 PM EST WED FEB 21 2018
Active weather will continue into the weekend. Heights will
continue to run well above normal Friday into Saturday. Departing
shortwave energy to the north on Friday, will allow for a mainly
dry day for most locations on Friday. A few showers could hold on
in the Bluegrass region, but heavy rainfall is not expected to be
a concern through Friday night. However, very warm conditions will
continue with afternoon highs again pushing upper 70s to around 80
in our eastern counties. Our records are fairly high on Friday, so
chances of breaking them are low. However, it will be a near
record kind of day. Warm conditions will continue Saturday night.
A shortwave will track across the area Friday night into
Saturday, providing an uptick in shower chances. As we get into
Saturday, there is even some instability that may be tapped
allowing for a few thunderstorms. A strong low and associated
shortwavetrough will swing across the great lakes late Saturday
into Saturday night pushing a strong cold front across Kentucky. A
few thunderstorms could be seen with the front, although its
coming through Saturday night which would limit the potential
severe threat. We could still see some gusty winds ahead and
behind the cold front Saturday night. Regardless, a local heavy
rain threat could exist in some places. Way too early for any
watches for this time period and any watch would be contingent on
how rainfall plays out over the next several days. Thus, for now,
will continue to highlight in the HWO and ESF.
Looks like we will finally dry out on Sunday into
early next week as high pressure makes a much needed return to the
area. Rain chances could return by next Wednesday, but lots of
uncertainty is seen with those rain chances, so will keep chances
very low. It will turn more seasonable by early next week, as the
warm weather finally loosens its grip on the area. A few nights
could see lows in the valleys dipping into the 20s in fact.
&&
.AVIATION...

-- Changed Discussion --

(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
ISSUED AT 659 PM EST WED FEB 21 2018
Expect a period of stronger showers to linger across the area
through this evening. With this, expect some spotty MVFR to IFR
conditions across the area with the showers. Later tonight, a
large swath of more steady shower activity will move in with the
front. This will bring field conditions to near field mins at many
of the sites. Will expect IFR and below conditions from late
tonight and through much of the remaining TAF period. Winds will
remain light and variable.