posted at 10:33 pm on May 8, 2012 by Allahpundit

From now until Thursday at midnight, you have a chance to win that for your mom or a special mother in your life — just get five or more donations to your grassroots fundraising page to automatically put yourself in the running…

That’s right: If your name is drawn, the President will send your mom a special Mother’s Day tweet from @BarackObama.

***

Now, at the time the aforementioned articles were written, Obama was ahead by a little more than three points nationally. This would represent a 4-point swing toward Republicans, and our baseline would give the president a 303-235 win. Florida would flip into the GOP column. Montana would move out of the “close” category, and Colorado would move in. Romney would still have to thread an extremely narrow needle to get to 269 electoral votes under this scenario, but it would be possible. He would have to win all of the “close” states – a tremendous task.

But what about today? Recent polls have shown the race closing to a one-point Obama lead. Now Ohio joins the Republican coalition, and Romney is up to 253 electoral votes. North Carolina and Indiana are no longer close. And, critically, a number of states in the “big blue wall” are placed on the playing field as the margins in Pennsylvania and Minnesota, along with New Hampshire and Iowa, join the “less than five points” category. In other words, Romney now has multiple paths to victory (as does Obama)…

What about if things break for Romney, and he is winning by four points as we approach Election Day? In that event, states like Pennsylvania and New Hampshire would fall into the GOP column, while Nevada, Wisconsin, New Mexico, and New Jersey are on his campaign’s radar screen. Colorado and Virginia are only on the outskirts of competitiveness for Team Obama. Under this scenario, it is Obama who has only one or two paths to victory, while Romney enjoys an embarrassment of riches.

***

Obama’s path is somewhat geographically narrow in that he probably needs to win three of the five big Eastern swing states: Pennsylvania, Virginia, North Carolina, Ohio and Florida.

But demographically, it’s ultra-narrow. Team Obama wants to hold down turnout for Romney in the ‘burbs and with blue-collar voters, while simultaneously squeezing out every vote from key Democratic groups: government worker unions, Hispanics, blacks, the poor, etc.

This is not a strategy for a broad victory, but a narrow one, won in Salvadoran neighborhoods in Northern Virginia, black precincts in Philadelphia and a dozen state-capital counties where AFSCME can drive turnout…

The brand of the Obama reelection campaign, so far, is ruthlessness. It has accused Mitt Romney of being soft on Osama bin Laden. It has singled out some Romney donors by name for public attack. Romney, we are informed, enjoys shipping jobs abroad, which is “just what you’d expect from a guy who had a Swiss bank account.” Obama has accused Republican congressional opponents of social Darwinism and indifference to autistic children…

Obama’s political identity is particularly vulnerable to inconsistency on this issue. More than any recent presidential candidate, his initial appeal was based on changing the political atmosphere. He would end the “partisan food fight.” There are no red or blue states, he said, just the United States…

All of the atmospheric elements of politics — unity, bipartisanship and common purpose — are significantly worse than four years ago. This is not all Obama’s fault. But he is choosing — in a campaign so nasty, so early — to make it worse. At some point, ruthlessness just leaves ruins.

***

Yes, the president — who has a unified party, is the one who relates to voters so well, has loyal support among the swooning apologencia (new word) on the left, and is the bee’s knees to every modern pop-culture disciple. What is wrong? Why isn’t Obama cruising right now with a big lead over Romney? Answer: Romney is stronger than he has been portrayed and Obama is weaker than most people think. How else do you explain the current polls?

If Romney should be limping after the ugly primaries, burdened by the so-called clumsy Republican leadership and a backward GOP House majority, but isn’t, how strong will he be when he shakes off the mud from the primaries and has been alone in the spotlight for a few weeks? In politics it is an advantage to be underestimated. Conversely, it is not helpful to be overestimated. Maybe Romney’s problems are overstated and perhaps Obama’s are too eagerly minimized. Obama is the favorite and right now he should be dominating the race. He has every advantage. His problems with the economy are obvious, but he may have another problem that his supporters can’t bring themselves to admit, and that is a formidable Mitt Romney.

***

“The reality is that when Bill Clinton ran in ’92, he ran as a new Democrat,” said the aide, citing ticket’s campaign pledge to reform welfare. “That was the famous ad that they ran: Clinton and Gore were going to be different kinds of Democrats.”

He continued: “President Obama has really turned his back on all of that. He hasn’t run as a new Democrat, he’s run as an old Democrat… more spending, more taxation, more regulation.”

Newsflash: Nothing is in the bag. Nothing can be taken for granted. Everybody from the precinct door-knocker, to the Chicago high command, to the White House, to the halls of Congress, to the Senate and House committees, to congressional leadership, here is a simple message: If we don’t get on the offense, reconnect with the American people, talk about how the middle class is in a struggle for its very existence, hold the Republicans accountable and fight like the dickens, we are going to lose.

You can shoot five Bin Ladens, you can save 10,000 banks and 20 car companies, even pass the most sweeping legislation in modern American history; if people don’t think that you are connected to their lives and are fighting for their interests they will vote your tush out of office in a nano-second. For historical reference see Winston Churchill election of 1945 and President George H.W. Bush in 1992…

Blowback

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I am begining to see how Carville’s wife puts up with him. I don’t agree with his politics, but I find much about him admirable, inclding he is a Marine, I am told he is Catholic and ahe remains married. Don’t know how he can embrace the politics he does, or how anyone would buy the gas from Clinton and the O; but he certainly takes a stand. Shame to see his kind of tenacity squandered. Hang in there Mary.