I am a Senior Political Contributor at Forbes and the official 'token lefty,' as the title of the page suggests. However, writing from the 'left of center' should not be confused with writing for the left as I often annoy progressives just as much as I upset conservative thinkers. In addition to the pages of Forbes.com, you can find me every Saturday morning on your TV arguing with my more conservative colleagues on "Forbes on Fox" on the Fox News Network and at various other times during the week serving as a liberal talking head on other Fox News and Fox Business Network shows. I also serve as a Democratic strategist with Mercury Public Affairs.

Immigration Reform The End Of The Line For GOP-Tea Party Alliance?

As Republican elected officials—hoping to save their political party from going the way of the dinosaur—race to grab as much credit as possible for a newly minted immigration reform effort designed to create a pathway to citizenship for some 11 million people illegally in the United States, the moment of truth for the GOP-Tea Party alliance may now be at hand.

And make no mistake…it’s going to get ugly.

While the immigration plan proposed on Monday by a bipartisan panel of eight U.S. Senators would create what the group is calling a “tough but fair path to citizenship for unauthorized immigrants currently living in the United States that is contingent upon securing our borders and tracking whether legal immigrants have left the country when required”, it seems unlikely that Tea Party backed Members in the House of Representatives can support any such plan without being viewed as having sold out the most basic of Tea Party principles. As a result, any action in the Senate to approve such a reform effort is likely to kick off an inter-party war in the House that will make the battles inside the GOP caucus over the fiscal cliff, debt ceiling and tax increases for the 1 percent appear, by comparison, to be a walk in the park on Sunday.

The problem is as simple as it is glaring.

A willingness on the part of Tea Party supported elected officials to abide a policy that could lead to 11 million illegals achieving American citizenship or green card status would be seen as the ultimate betrayal of the principles that give the Tea Party movement its strength—not to mention its financial support. Thus, a Tea Party backed politician who votes for any immigration reform bill will be seen to have sold out the movement in favor of the preservation of the Republican Party— an action that would be anathema to many loyal Tea Partiers.

“Another reason why the Tea Party will shift its focus to immigration now is that – with this year’s election now over – many of those in “traditional” Republican circles who had seen the Tea Party as a helpful parallel force for their goals are now out of active involvement. As such, the Tea Party’s own grassroots main issues – illegal aliens, taxes, Obamacare, and bailouts – are what will matter in the movement, not the Republican Party’s goals.”

The issue also presents a political ‘Sophie’s Choice’ for members of the GOP Congressional caucus who come to Washington without the strong backing of the Tea Party and choose not to overtly identify with the group. Despite their non-reliance on espousing Tea Party principles in their rhetoric and Congressional voting records, these elected officials will, nevertheless, be forced to choose between continuing a policy that has alienated the Hispanic community (fast becoming the most important voting block in the nation as proven by the 2012 presidential race) and will lead to political irrelevancy for their party, or get behind the GOP survival effort and face the inevitable electoral nightmare for Republican elected officials everywhere—a Tea Party backed primary challenge.

Talk about a Catch-22 with no way out.

While the Republican members of the group of eight—including Senators Marco Rubio of Florida, John McCain of Arizona, Lindsey Graham of South Carolina, and Jeff Flake of Arizona—have sought to appease the most extreme wing of their party by including language that would prevent much in the way of forward movement for illegal immigrants until a committee to be formed of Southwestern state leaders first approve the satisfactory completion of new efforts to secure the border, it is highly unlikely that this language contained in the bipartisan framework will pass muster with enough Senate Democrats to allow such a provision to make it into a final Senate bill.

After all, it is these very Southwestern elected officials—including Governor Jan Brewer of Arizona—who have made a career out of doing everything in their power to block illegal immigration and, as a result, are likely to never give the “thumbs up” that would be required to allow the process of legalizing immigrants to begin.

This means that any bill to make it out of the Senate would likely create a less restrictive opportunity for legalization, putting increased pressure of those House Republicans who want to vote for the legislation in the effort to please Hispanics and preserve their political party’s future.

At the end of what will surely be a hard-fought process, the odds are that the nation will get some sort of new immigration policy that will allow both political parties to claim a measure of credit. But the odds are equally good that the inevitable battle supreme that will play out inside the House Republican caucus will drive the final wedge between mainstream Congressional Republicans and their Tea Party flank—splitting off the extremist from the GOP caucus once and for all.

You can read the full text of the “Bipartisan Framework For Comprehensive Immigration Reform” here.

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While I suspect I would likely say that you are the one who is a problem, the difference between you and I is that so long as you are free to see it your way and I am free to see it my way, this country will never be doomed because that is what this country is all about. It’s sad that you don’t get that.

I can only wonder at the trades and tradeoffs that will be made for this. I’m tired of the folks in the border states who impede movement towards a solution. This is too much of an impediment to more important things we need to move on. For all those folks who have a huge wad in their undies over immigration, the rest of us recognize your unhappiness, but we don’t know the source. Is it the immigrant or the immigration that bothers you most?

What part of NO AMNESTY dont you understand? 70-80% of Americans in EVERY POLL ON IMMIGRATION wants all illegal aliens OUT OF THE COUNTRY!!! HOW DARE YOU CREATE NEW LAWS SO TOTALLY AGAINST THE EXPRESSED WISHES OF THE VAST MAJORITY OF AMERICANS. No new Immigration law!!! We already have immigration laws and we demand that they be enforced now!!

While I get that you are not a big fan of immigration, I’m afraid you are way off in your polling data which clearly shows that the majority of Americans do, indeed, favor a path to citizenship. You might wish to take a look at just a few of the most recent, including a Fox News Poll (see item 17 in that poll):

I found it interesting watching John McCain state his position on immigration reform today. it could have induced whiplash. While his position de jour shows that his core principals change with the political wind, at least he’s come to the pragmatic position that republicans have no future if they remain on the wrong side of this issue. The fact that this position is rational, and worse, is supported by the President, assures that many republicans will rally against it. Can embracing the 47% of America’s “moochers” be next?

Personally, i will miss the republican position of “self deportation.” Even if it cost them the last election, at least that injected some unintentional levity into the debate.

I’ll believe it when I see it. I don’t see anything new and different about the Republicans. They intend to be the same obstructionists they were before…they want to “appear” to be cooperative, while they insist that the problem is the President…”he wants to annihilate the GOP”. As Paul Ryan said, “We (Republicans) have to continue to stand together.” What does that mean?

They will slow walk this legislation, the same way they did ObamaCare and in the end the problem will be drones or the fines or the day of the week. Expect the same thing with gun safety legislation. They’re main goal is to see that this President accomplishes nothing meaningful…has no decent legacy.

Besides, if they rig the electoral college voting process, why would they need Latino votes?