Paul is the dazzling young playmaker who — according to a wedding-toast prophecy — may replace Billups next year.

The two were set to face off Wednesday night, but Billups was sidelined by a bruised thigh sustained in a loss to the Orlando Magic on Tuesday night. So the court belonged to Paul, as many Knicks fans hope it will in the near future.

From the moment they began collecting stars — Amar’e Stoudemire last July, Anthony last week — the Knicks have carefully managed the payroll, saving room for one more marquee player in 2012.

Two elite point guards, Paul and the Nets’ Deron Williams, top the list of targets. Dwight Howard, the Magic center, presents an enticing option.

But these free-agent fantasies are dependent on dozens of variables, most of which are beyond the Knicks’ control and nearly all of which have to do with the coming labor battle between the owners and the players.

The new collective bargaining agreement, whenever it is adopted, will ultimately determine whether the Knicks can complete their superteam.

Knicks officials are forecasting $16 million in salary-cap room in 2012. But that presupposes a cap at about $58 million, the same as it is today. The N.B.A.’s push for cost containment, including a hard salary cap, could push that figure down.

The league also wants lower maximum salaries, which could work in the Knicks’ favor. But even if Paul were limited to, for example, $10 million — a $6.4 million pay cut from his 2011-12 salary — it could leave the Knicks with just $6 million and at least nine open roster slots.

Right now, the Knicks have only three players under contract in 2012-13 — Anthony, Stoudemire and Renaldo Balkman, who are set to make a combined $41 million. They also hold a $2.1 million option on Toney Douglas. Any multiyear contracts the Knicks give out this summer would further reduce their 2012 cap room.

Everything, of course, is subject to change when the league adopts a new labor deal after this season. Perhaps the owners will not get the hard cap or the lower salaries they desire. Or the union, in exchange for a hard cap, could demand a higher cap figure (perhaps $70 million?).

Every gesture at the bargaining table will affect the free-agent class of 2012. There is no certainty that any of the aforementioned stars will be available.

Paul, Williams and Howard are signed through 2013, but they have options to terminate their deals in 2012. Depending on the state of their teams and the state of the labor deal, they could choose not to opt out. They have incentive to stay. Howard would be leaving $19.3 million on the table if he opts out, and Paul and Williams, $17.8 million.

The free-agent calculus could become even more complicated. Some owners are pushing for an N.F.L.-style franchise tag, which would bind star players to their teams longer. Or the league could adopt stronger financial incentives for superstars to stay put.

At this early stage, no one — players, agents, general managers, league executives or union lawyers — can say with any certainty what the new system will look like. Or which free agents will actually move in 2012.

Some think that Paul telegraphed his wishes last July, in a toast at Anthony’s wedding. Paul suggested — jokingly, half-jokingly, maybe seriously — that he, Anthony and Stoudemire would “form our own Big Three” in New York, to match the new Big Three in Miami.

Stoudemire had just signed with the Knicks. Seven months later, Anthony joined him. The fantasy is two-thirds complete. The last third could be the toughest part.

A version of this web log appears in print on March 3, 2011, on page B15 of the New York edition with the headline: And Paul Would Make Three. Order Reprints|Today's Paper|Subscribe