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What is Forecasting Events

Forecasting of certain types of events through statistics and thereby helping in theformulation of suitable strategies and policies. In most organizations, plans of development are prepared much in advance of the time when they have to be implemented. Even at the governmental level developmental plans are prepared in anticipation of what is likely to happen in future. Our Five-year Plans are an example in this context. We think of 5 years hence and try to formulate our policies in anticipation of our expectations. Statistical methods are very helpful in forecasting future trends on the basis of the analysis of past data, as modified in the light of current conditions. Statistical methods help in the formulation of future policies by analyzing past and present conditions and making projections for future. If for example, the government has to decide as to how many motor cars should be manufacture din the country in the year 1986 it would take into account the current demand, the price factor, the position of fuel supply, the road development plans, the buying capacity of people and many other factors which would need statistical analysis before a rational decision is arrived at.

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