New Regional Accord Leaves the Contras in Honduras Fearful but Defiant

By MARK A. UHLIG, Special to The New York Times

Published: August 14, 1989

YAMALES, Honduras, Aug. 10—
For years, rebels setting out to fight inside Nicaragua have wondered whether they would live to return to the safety of this rugged mountain haven. But for the patrols now leaving for months in enemy territory, the survival of the haven itself is in question.

Inside the thousands of makeshift wood and plastic shelters that clutter the steep hillsides here, contra fighters listened on Monday night as Honduran radio described a new regional agreement to dismantle the camp immediately under international supervision. And they fought to make sense of a diplomatic defeat that has left their struggle in the most precarious state since it began eight years ago. Wave of Defiance

News of the accord, which was signed by five Central American Presidents, has been met by a wave of defiance from the 6,000 to 10,000 fighters here, who declare that they will press their fight from inside Nicaragua with or without safe havens or outside support. ''We have already made our decision,'' said a guerrilla from central Nicaragua who goes by the pseudonym Veronica. ''We will go back to Nicaragua and die with a rifle in our hand.''

But the agreement has met with official silence from the contra movement's political directorate and military high command, creating a sense of apprehension among rank-and-file soldiers. And it has pointed up the underlying vulnerability of this large rebel community, whose 50,000 family members and dependents have no hope of concealing themselves in the Nicaraguan mountains for a clandestine guerrilla struggle.

The accord has also brought to the surface growing frustration with those who are blamed for permitting the demobilization plan to occur, including the United States, the United Nations and the opposition political parties in Nicaragua, which recently signed an agreement with the leftist Government calling for disbanding the contra bases.

''We have to remind them that when we began our struggle, there weren't international organizations, opposition parties - there was absolutely no one to stop the Sandinista Front,'' said a 26-year-old field commander who is known as Weiner.

The new regional agreement, reached after three days of negotiations in the town of Tela, on the Atlantic coast of Honduras, calls for dismantling the rebel army on a specific timetable that is to be completed by early December.

Under the terms of the accord, the demobilization is to be voluntary, leaving open the possibility that some or all of the rebel fighters could refuse to accept it. But the accord also calls for the establishment of new international forces of unarmed observers and armed peacekeeping troops to help patrol the Honduran-Nicaraguan border against contra incursions. Any rebel attempt to defy the agreement is expected, under current Congressional restrictions, to prompt a cutoff in American aid, depriving the army of its most important source of support. Delay in Response Seen

Amid that array of considerations, spokesmen for the rebel leadership in Miami say it is likely to be some time before the group announces a formal response.

''This is not something to jump into and make a public announcement,'' Adolfo Calero, a member of the rebel directorate, said in a telephone interview from Miami. ''It is something to consider and reconsider.''

But rebel leaders seem to believe that little hope remains of keeping their Honduran sanctuary, and with few fighters willing to consider Nicaraguan offers of repatriation and amnesty, discussion has centered on two options: accepting permanent exile or returning to Nicaragua for a sustained guerrilla war.

Of those options, the thought of a glorious fight to the finish is clearly the most popular among the young guerrillas in camp here.

''We have the guns, and that is what matters,'' said Rafael, 24-year-old fighter from the northern Nicaraguan town of Esteli.

That option has also been encouraged in the defiant indoctrination sessions that officials here have sponsored to quell rumors among the rank and file. Addressing about 150 assembled troops in the Pedro Joaquin Gonzalez Battalion, an officer from the psychological operations division of the contra leadership gave an approved version of the Tela events. 'Presidents Were Blackmailed'

''The five Presidents were blackmailed,'' said the officer, who took his nom de guerre, Jackson, from the baseball player Reggie Jackson. ''The internal opposition was blackmailed, too. This new situation has just created an even greater degree of sympathy for the Nicaraguan resistance. We have troops inside, we have collaborators, and we have a base of support among the people.''

But his fiery speech was cooled by the news of official indecision. ''This is something we have to look at very carefully,'' the officer acknowledged. ''We have to make a decision. We have to be careful in what we are going to do.''

Questioned individually, contra troops and officers acknowledge that continuing the war without a Honduran sanctuary would be far tougher than anything they have attempted thus far. Despite considerable support in some parts of Nicaragua, the contras have never seized ground from the Sandinista Army for any significant time, and the Honduran base has always been a crucial source of resupply.

Some contra leaders, like Mr. Calero, have suggested that the group might try to revive the structure of a cease-fire accord reached in March 1988 between rebel leaders and the Sandinista Government. Under the accord, which was never fully carried out, contras inside the country were to have been restricted to defined geographic zones, in which they would have received shipments of humanitarian aid and have been left undisturbed by Nicaraguan forces as long as they did not take the offensive.

But diplomats say that having won regionwide endorsement of the contra demobilization, Nicaragua is unlikely to accept such a plan. And they say that in any case, the idea of returning to Nicaragua with guns in hand leaves no room for the 50,000 dependents who will also be affected by the demobilization. Hoping for U.S. Asylum

Many of those dependents are the most outspoken in their concern about the Tela accord, which many attribute to ineffective lobbying by the White House and State Department. Many express hope that with their other options closed, they will be granted asylum into the United States.

But even if they are not, most say they would rather become refugees than to return to Nicaragua under the terms offered by the Government.

''If we turn ourselves in, we'll be killed,'' said Moises, a 25-year-old former fighter who was badly wounded two years ago and now lives just outside the camp. ''The Sandinistas have never fulfilled their promises to us.''

And for many like 54-year-old Leonor Carcamo Lacayo, who has lost two of her seven children in combat on the contra side, the most important feature of the Tela accord is what it will not accomplish.

''If there is a demobilization, I will never go,'' she said, watching lines of troops filing past in a misty afternoon rain. ''They can cry, they can beg, they can do what they want, but I will never go back to Nicaragua.''

Photo of Nicaraguan contras during a marching drill at their base in Honduras. (Black Star/Ron Kinney)