Friday, August 20, 2010

The article is interesting, but what caught my attention in particular was a phrase he used and its applicability to risk identification:

"the way to avert tragedy is to think tragically".

It's important to be a "Debbie Downer" when you're identifying risk. It's a certain skill to be able to be really negative and identify all things that can go most horribly wrong and then turn around and be optimistic about the project.

But develop that skill, and you'll serve your project better.

On another note: please click on the adverts on the page and help me support this blog?

Monday, August 2, 2010

This was the way the chaps over at Monty Python's Flying Circus used to segue from sketch to sketch when they had no idea how to do it smoothly.

And this is a blog post which I cannot segue to, or otherwise connect properly to project management other than my work over at EarthPM, and yet somehow I felt that this post belonged here at ScopeCrepe.

I simply want to recommend this excellent BBC series, available for free by podcast. This site uses objects to tell a history of the world. You’ll find 100 objects from the British Museum and hundreds more from museums and people across the UK (and the world).

Sunday, July 11, 2010

One of the things that has always fascinated me as I've studied project management is the aspect of risk.

Risk is the engine of projects. Think about it. Without risk, projects would be planned, everything would go as planned (no threats...no opportunities) and we, as project managers, would be responsible only for checking boxes on a checklist.

How boring.

But of course (witness exploding and leaking oil wells!) threats do occur. Projects do go off course. We do need to deal with uncertainty.

In fact, it's probably the only thing that IS certain about a project - the uncertainty, that is. And that keeps us, well... employed.

All of this said, it's also interesting to note that humans are not built well to deal with risk. In fact, there are huge monuments to this disability located all over the world. They're called casinos. Logic would tell us that if the organizations that build these things are rich enough to make them look like they do - with extravagant waterfalls, marble foyers and gold statues - they are most likely winning while we are losing. Yet we go back again and again.

I'd like to share with you a snippet from a great book I'm reading called "The Paradox of Choice" by Barry Schwartz.

Imagine that you have decided to see a concert where admission is $20 a ticket. As you enter the concert hall, you discover that you have lost a $20 bill. Would you still pay $20 for a ticket to the concert?

Answer honestly.

Now scroll down for what people say in general - and another scenario.

Almost 90 percent of respondents say yes.

Now try this one:

Imagine that you have decided to see a concert and already purchased a $20 ticket. As you enter the concert hall, you discover that you have lost the ticket. The seat was not marked and the ticket cannot be recovered. Would you pay $20 for another ticket?

Answer honestly again. Then scroll down.

In this situation, less than 50 percent of respondents say yes.

Kahneman and Tversky(two scientists who've studied human behavior in uncertain conditions) suggest that the difference between the two cases has to do with the way in which we frame our "psychological account. Suppose that in a person's psychological ledger there is a "cost of the concert account. In the first case, the cost of the concert is $20 charged to that account. But the lost $20 bill is charged to some other account, perhaps "miscellaneous. But in the second case, the cost of the concert is $40; the cost of the lost ticket, plus the cost of the replacement ticket, both charged to the same account.

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So what's the lesson here?

Acknowledge that we're not good at managing risk with (only) our gut.

Acknowledge that the tools and techniques given to us by our PM books and mentors are worthwhile. Don't try to manage projects ONLY with your gut. Your gut is fine, but not all by itself. Look what it's done for the casino business!

The reason I'm posting is to also point you to the resources available on Charlie Pellerin's company's site.

You'll find Powerpoint presentations to download which vibrantly illustrate the concepts of social context and how that can have just as much - if not more - impact on your project as the technical aspects. Have a look.

Wednesday, June 16, 2010

The Gulf oil spill crisis is in day 58. Debate continues on the amount of oil leaking from the Deepwater Horizon well, but it's clear that this disaster easily beats the Exxon Valdez.

And BP has now pledge to pay $20B (yes Billion) to a fund that will support the Gulf. See this link.

What type of project risk identification, analysis, planning, and response did the responsible (and I use that word lightly) parties have?

We'll be discussing this and much more in an inexpensive 2-day seminar run by yours truly for EPM Solutions.

The seminar, entitled "A Question of Balance", runs two nights, and is given via Webinar. The schedule calls for it to run on 27 and 29 July (Tuesday and Thursday nights, 6PM to 8:30PM Eastern US time.

It'll earn you 5 Professional Development Units (PDUs) from an REP (Registered Education Provider).

This site is for musings and contributions on the "Accidental Profession", project management. One of the key concepts of this field is "scope creep". As part of my business I have been traveling to France, so I just went ahead and differentiated by calling it scope crêpe . Hope you find it to be tasty!