Home builder confidence tumbles the most since 2014 as housing headwinds catch up Sentiment didn’t fall this sharply from one month to another even during the worst of the housing crisisA gauge of home builder sentiment fell off a cliff in November as a litany of industry headwinds - expensive labor, scarce lots, higher mortgage rates - finally caught up.

Trump is right to focus on the trade deficit It will take more than tariffs to change behavior of mercantilists in China, Germany, JapanTrade wars are easy to win — for the other guy, writes Peter Morici.

APEC summit ends in disarray as U.S.-China trade tensions dominate No joint statement issued after failure to agree on trade termsA summit of world leaders ended in acrimony Sunday with the host nation accusing Chinese officials of threatening behavior and differences between the U.S. and China preventing delegates from reaching a consensus on trade, security and investment.

Mortgage rates hold steady as housing market stresses mount So far this year, the 30-year-fixed has averaged 4.53%, up from 3.99% in 2017Rates for home loans were mostly unchanged in the most recent week, of little use to anyone trying to buy a home - there are few good options - or refinance - most everyone who could benefit already has.

The economy will knuckle under if firms become tight-fisted. So watch this number Business investment likely to recover from recent stumbleAmericans aren’t spending quite as much as they did in the spring and summer when the economy soared to fresh heights. Now companies might be becoming more tight-fisted. What does it mean for the U.S. economy?

Fed’s Evans sees possibility of up to 4 interest-rate hikes in 2019 Housing slowdown, global ripples aren’t yet enough to prompt a downgrade to above-trend GDP projectionChicago Federal Reserve President Charles Evans is sticking with his projection that interest rates could comfortably run above the so-called neutral rate, a projection that comes as the Fed is widely expected by financial markets to continue with policy tightening well into 2019.

2-year Treasury yield logs steepest weekly drop in two years after dovish Fed remarksTreasury yields slump on Friday, extending their weeklong decline, after a senior Federal Reserve official issues concerns over softer global growth, potentially opening the door to fewer rate hikes than expected next year

Fed's Evans projects possibility of up to four interest-rate hikes in 2019Chicago Federal Reserve President Charles Evans said Friday that he'd accept a Fed funds rate target that pushes slightly above what's still a "vague" idea of neutral policy. That means he sees a chance that the central bank raises rates three or four times next year; the official Fed forecast so far points to three rate hikes in 2019. Evans, who will vote on policy in 2019, thinks neutral is about 2.75% and he could comfortably see rates going to 3.25% assuming his outlook for continued GDP growth continues, he told reporters after speaking to the Fixed-Income Forum in Chicago. He did say that global growth concerns, trade policy uncertainty and a housing slowdown warrant watching and could change the comfort zone around neutral rates.

Industrial production edges up in October after big upward revisionIndustrial production edged up 0.1% in October, the Federal Reserve said Friday, but there was a big upward revision that moved third-quarter numbers significantly higher. Capacity utilization fell to 78.4% from 78.5% in September. Economists polled by MarketWatch expected a 0.2% gain in industrial production and 78.2% capacity utilization. As a result of upward revisions primarily in mining, the overall index is now reported to have advanced at an annual rate of 4.7% in the third quarter, appreciably above the gain of 3.3% reported initially, the Fed said.

Santa rally for stocks? Get out while the getting is good, says this strategist Critical information for the U.S. trading dayOur call of the day says investors should be ready to grab and rally with both hands...and head for the exit.

Stocks snap 5-day losing streak on cautious optimism over tariff war Brexit drama comes into focusStocks close higher Thursday with the S&P 500 snapping a five-day losing streak as cautious optimism took hold following a report that the U.S. may back off from its belligerent stance against China on trade.

Fed watchers left puzzled by what Powell was trying to communicateFor someone who prides himself on transparency, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell sure left people confused as to his intentions during a discussion in Dallas on Wednesday night.

Pound plunges more than 1.5% against the buck amid turmoil over May’s Brexit planThe British pound is the major story for currency traders on Thursday as it tanks against it major rivals, amid further turmoil for U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May’s Brexit plan.

Fed says it will review strategies, communication policies next yearThe Federal Reserve said next year it will review the strategies, tools, and communication practices it uses to pursue its congressionally-assigned mandate of maximum employment and price stability. The Fed will sponsor a research conference June 4-5, 2019, at the Chicago Fed, and regional Fed banks will host a series of public events around the country to hear from a wide range of stakeholders, the central bank said. Beginning around the middle of 2019, Federal Reserve policymakers will discuss the perspectives offered during the outreach events, and at the end of the process, policymakers will report their findings.

Atlanta Fed's Bostic says Fed needs to balance risks as it moves to neutral policyAtlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic told an audience in Madrid that the interest-rate setting Federal Open Market Committee needs to balance the risks of stopping short of full normalization, which could lead to an overheated environment, and going too far, which could short-circuit the economic expansion. Conditions warrant the final steps in adopting a neutral stance of monetary policy, Bostic said. "I don't think we are too far from a neutral policy, and neutral is where we want to be. We may not be there quite yet, but I am inclined to think that a tentative approach as we proceed would be appropriate," said Bostic, who's a voting FOMC member this year.

European stocks routed as financials take a hit on Brexit turmoil Major oil companies support index as crude prices riseA tough day for U.K. markets as Brexit deal uncertainty triggered turmoil for the financial sector.

U.S. retail sales surge in October after first back-to-back declines since 2015 Consumer spending still healthy, but it appears to be slowing downSales at U.S. retailers surged in October after the first back-to-back drop in several years, with most of the money being spent on gas and new cars and trucks. Retail sales leaped 0.8% last month following newly revised 0.1% declines in September and August.

Empire State, Philly Fed indexes show manufacturing still solid despite rising costs New York area gauges improves while Philadelphia’s declinesManufacturers have been saying the same thing for a few months—complaining over rising prices, whether from tariffs or shortages of parts and labor, while still acknowledging that output has been solid.

Jobless claims edge up to 216,000, but still near historic lows Low rate of layoffs in U.S. reflects tightest labor market in decadesThe number of Americans who applied for unemployment benefits in mid-November rose slightly, but they remained near historic lows. Initial jobless claims, a rough way to measure layoffs, edged up by 2,000 to 216,000.

Mixed directions for Empire State, Philly Fed manufacturing indexes in NovemberThe Empire State manufacturing index in November rose 2.2 points to 23.3 -- above the Econoday-compiled consensus for a 20 reading-- with sizable gains in the indexes for inventories and average workweek. The Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index however declined to a reading of 12.9 vs. 22.2. Economists polled by MarketWatch expected a reading of 20 for the Philly Fed index. Any reading above zero for these indices indicates improving conditions.

Cost of imported goods climb 0.5% in OctoberWASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - The import price index in October rose by 0.5%. Rising gas prices was a big contributor. Excluding fuel, prices of imported goods rose a smaller 0.2%, the government said Thursday. The increase in import prices over the past 12 months moved up to 3.5% from 3.1%. If fuel is omitted, the increase in import prices over the past year was a milder 0.7%. Earlier this week the government said the U.S. consumer price index climbed 0.3% in October, with higher gas prices accounting for more than one-third of the increase. Yet oil prices have tumbled globally, likely leading to lower prices of imported fuel and gas at the pump in the next few months.

Why Amazon’s ‘HQ2s’ won’t create two more Seattles The online retail giant has chosen Crystal City in northern Virginia and Long Island City in QueensThe online retail giant has chosen Crystal City, Va. and Long Island City, N.Y.

Powell says he’s optimistic about economy as he notes concerns from abroadFederal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell on Wednesday night used a conversation with the president of Dallas Fed to communicate optimism about the U.S. economy even as he acknowledged potential headwinds, particularly from abroad.

Consumer inflation posts biggest jump in nine months on higher cost of gas, rent, used cars, CPI shows Increase in inflation in past 12 months rises to 2.5% from 2.3%Americans paid more in October for gas, rent and used vehicles, triggering the biggest increase in consumer inflation in nine months. The consumer price index climbed 0.3% in October.

Washing machines, dishwashers are more expensive after Trump tariffs Prices of major appliances in U.S. soar ahead of holiday seasonThe cost of new washers, dryers and other major appliances are surging in the wake of White House tariffs.

China’s coming recession has pushed oil below $60 Oil’s plunge is an early indication of a hard landing for Chinese economyEconomic developments in China should be closely monitored by oil traders, as the Chinese economy is likely headed into a massive recession.

What to expect from Fed Chairman Powell’s speech Powell may discuss impact of Fed policy on emerging markets “Equities in Dallas” also could be the shorthand for Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s address Wednesday night, as it’s the location for a speech officially titled, “Global Perspectives.”

In a chaotic 2019, gold will be the ‘best house in bad neighborhood’ Critical information for the U.S. trading dayAlready there is plenty of chatter about an uncertain, possibly ugly, 2019 for global assets. Our call of the day is betting this long-neglected asset will shine through the chaos.

Cisco earnings: Tariffs could throw a wrench into strong sales momentum After three quarters of revenue growth for Cisco, a fourth is expectedCisco Systems Inc.’s strong year may hit speed bumps going into 2019 as higher prices and uncertainty in the U.S.-China trade war raise the possibility that businesses may cut back on enterprise spending to weather the effects of tariffs.

China always promises to stop cheating on trade, but never does Trump’s hard-line tariffs are beginning to make Beijing uneasyWe’ve heard the Chinese promise to commit to free trade hundreds of times before. And nothing ever changes.

Dow futures down over 100 points as Wall Street sets up for a bruising sessionLosses for U.S. stock futures were building ahead of Wall Street's open later on Wednesday, as oil prices continued to fall and investors kept watch on political risk out of the U.K. and Europe. Dow futures dropped 116 points, or 0.5%, to 25,214, while S&P 500 futures fell 14.85 points, or 0.6%, to 2,712.50. Nasdaq-100 futures slid 66.75 points, or 1%, to 6,785.25. Stocks closed mostly lower on Tuesday as oil plunged, with crude down another 0.3% on Wednesday. Investors were watching closely for Brexit deal news out of the U.K. as Prime Minister Theresa May prepares to bring an agreement with the EU to a divided cabinet. Weak German growth data and Italy's refusal to revise its budget were driving European stocks lower, with the Stoxx Europe 600 index dropping over 1%.

Natural disasters took heavy toll on Japan’s economy last quarter Economy shrank 1.2%, though return to growth predicted this quarterThe Japanese economy contracted during the three months through September as a series of natural disasters hurt exports and spending by tourists

U.S. stock market closes mostly lower as oil gets clobbered Dow grounded by BoeingStocks close mostly lower after a volatile session Tuesday as oil prices cratered, dragging the energy sector sharply lower, and a resolution of the U.S.-China trade war remained elusive.

Hedge-fund heavyweight Ken Griffin fears Trump knocks on Fed eroding faith in dollarKen Griffin, founder of hedge fund Citadel, believes that President Trump’s comments about the Fed Chairman are “inappropriate,” and are a threat to confidence in the buck.

Election over, investors are back on inflation watch and feeling a little spooked Consumer prices set to rise sharply, but relief might come soonThe results of a superheated 2018 election didn’t bother Wall Street much, but oh, just a whiff of inflation sure did. Here’s what investors are worried about.

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