The next four weeks should be as revealing as any since the knockout stages of the 2007 Rugby World Cup. If anything, New Zealand's 32-19 weekend win over Australia in Tokyo has increased the sense of expectancy, with both teams showing signs of an upturn en route to Europe. If the northern hemisphere sides are to silence their southern friends this month, they will have to do so the hard way.

It is high time, certainly, for the more talkative home nations to walk the walk, starting with England and Wales this weekend. If Australia and the All Blacks leave Twickenham and Cardiff with comfortable victories, it will instantly stall the momentum generated by the British and Irish Lions in South Africa in the summer. Having seen Ian McGeechan's squad come so close to unseating the world's best team from a standing start, there is no excuse for backward steps at home.

For Martin Johnson, in particular, these are crucial days. His England need to forge a consistent identity, regardless of injuries. What, precisely, is their modus operandi, apart from stopping the opposition playing? Lawrence Dallaglio was interesting in print . "I'd like England and the other [home nation] teams to have a harsher mentality. Let's get into these touring teams and send them home defeated." It is a timely rallying cry. Including three probable warm-up games in the summer of 2011, England have 22 games left prior to the World Cup in New Zealand. Essentially, that boils down to 10 fixtures between now and June, followed by 15 months of fine-tuning. It is a smallish window in which to fashion a world champion team, something England can presently only aspire to. At some stage Johnson will have to speculate a little, rather than rely solely on the tried and tested.

In that respect, if nothing else, Australia are heading in the right direction, despite Saturday's seventh straight loss to New Zealand, a long flight from Japan and the distraction of Tuesday's trip to Kingsholm, where they would be ill-advised to order the sushi. Better to lose a few games now than arrive on Kiwi soil in two years' time without a clue as to which youngsters might add something special. That is not to say the present should be ignored, merely that promising players like James O'Connor and Will Genia could be world-beaters by 2011. Of course England need a couple of decent autumn results but, above all, they need to deliver a statement of intent. If there is a choice to be made between a 35-year-old, or a younger player of equal ability, now is also the moment to take a calculated punt.

That impression was further strengthened by watching Saturday's Currie Cup final between the Blue Bulls and the Cheetahs. A mere six months ago, Heinrich Brussow was not even in the Springbok squad; subsequently, the Free State flanker has developed into one of the world's most influential players. The Blue Bulls still won, but it was a stirring, skilful contest in which even Victor Matfield and co began to look distinctly mortal. There can be little doubt the game, at the highest level, is faster and more intense than it was even two years ago. Fitness is increasingly paramount and, while Johnson is satisfied his men are making progress in that regard, the English set-piece platform is no longer a guaranteed antidote, even with the rolling maul back in business. The game moves on quickly these days and a forward pack without real pace is going nowhere.

The Lions tour, in many ways, has also removed a whole load of caveats, given what McGeechan's squad achieved in a matter of weeks. Saturday's game in Tokyo also highlighted the Wallabies' inability to finish what they start. England should be beating them at home; if not, their remaining autumn games against Argentina and New Zealand will assume a very different hue. It is a similar story for Wales. Start well and it could be a special season for them. What a shame Mike Phillips, Adam Jones and Lee Byrne are all crocked; a precious win over New Zealand is not impossible, even so. First they must hold their own at the breakdown, where New Zealand and South Africa continue to reign supreme, and replicate the kicking accuracy of Dan Carter and Morne Steyn.

There is so much else. How will Scotland go under Andy Robinson? Better must be the hope. Will Italy's game against the All Blacks at San Siro in Milan prove a turning point in the Azzurri's history? What price England's women against the Kiwi counterparts? The game of the autumn, either way, will be the Springboks' trip to Croke Park to face the grand slammers of Ireland. My feeling is that no touring team will return home undefeated. Then again, the north were making similarly optimistic noises last year.