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Planning minister Mr Ahsan Iqbal has finally confirmed that the CPEC Long Term Plan (LTP) is about to be finalised on Nov 21 at the seventh Joint Cooperation Committee to be held in Islamabad. Some might recall that details from the LTP in question were published by Dawn in a long detailed report in May, and the same minister had reacted sharply at the time, saying that the details are “factually incorrect” and the real plan will be made public once it has been finalised.

It looks like that moment is at last arriving, if the minister lives up to his promise of releasing the full document. If they do what they did earlier in the year, and produce a shortened, sanitised and general summary of the main LTP, and release that claiming that it is the original document, we will know that an effort is being made to conceal the real details of CPEC from the public.

To recap the conversations that took place around the time when the Dawn story revealed the details of the plan, there were four main areas of focus identified by the Chinese side and a few from the Pakistanis. The Chinese appeared primarily interested in agriculture, industrial zones and tourism, along with a digital strategy to expand fibre optic connectivity and build a submarine cable landing station in Gwadar to carry some of their digital traffic from the western provinces out via Pakistan rather than routing it through servers in Europe.

CPEC is about preparing the country to receive massive amounts of Chinese investments, personnel and culture.

In addition, there was a detailed financial strategy, which called upon the government of Pakistan to expand the role of the yuan in its economy, turn more to raising debt from the markets in Hong Kong, and dedicate increasing resources from its own budget, as well as provincial and local bodies’ budgets, towards CPEC-related priorities.

Since then, we have seen something odd happening. Many of the priorities identified in the LTP have indeed been pursued since, but without any of the fanfare associated with the inauguration of roads and power plants. For example, the national food security policy announced in July contained an entire section dedicated to the creation of CPEC-related agriculture development zones as one solution to the country’s future food security issues. Many of the details in that policy document sound almost identical to the priorities highlighted by the Chinese in their LTP document, produced by the China Development Bank under the auspices of the National Development Reform Commission.

In other examples, a recent news item highlighted the fact that a Chinese company has entered into an MoU with the city of Karachi to build an elevated road, almost four kilometres long, from Clifton Beach to Hawkesbay. A closer read of the actual MoU shows that the road is in fact being built to carry traffic to a Chinese resort to be built in Hawkesbay beach, possibly one of the first of the many tourist resorts to be built along the coastal strip from Badin to Gwadar identified in the Dawn report.

There are innumerable examples now. Land acquisition is under way in various areas around KP to build housing for Chinese personnel who will reside in the province in the years when CPEC-related investment begins pouring into the country.

The basic point here is simple: we have all been led to believe that CPEC is about connectivity, roads and power plants. In reality, it is about much more than that. It is about preparing the country to receive massive amounts of Chinese investments, personnel and culture. None of this implies that CPEC is a bad thing, as some people are ready to conclude without reflection. It is only to imply that the real details of what is being negotiated under the CPEC umbrella need to be publicly known, and efforts to hide these details from the public in a democratic country like Pakistan, where transparency and debate around issues of national importance are the norm, are bound to fuel adverse commentary and conspiracy theorising.

When the minister issued his sharp response to the Dawn story about the LTP, he was given a clear stage upon which to air his grievances with the story. When has asked for more time to be allowed to make the details of the LTP, he was given the time he said he required. But now that he has confirmed that the LTP is about to be finalised, it must be insisted that the time to deliver on his commitment has also arrived.

It is worth bearing in mind a couple of tricks that the government could resort to in order to try and wiggle out of this commitment without appearing to do so. Early in the year, when it needed provincial government assent for the plan, it generated a shorter, edited draft of the original LTP and circulated that to the provincial governments. Later, the government tried to argue that the edited version is the real one, and the longer, detailed draft was only a “working document”. A few people fell for this gimmick, thinking that somehow there are multiple drafts of the plan in play. In reality there was only one, and the shorter one was only a summary meant for public consumption with all vital details removed. Such gimmickry must not be resorted to this time.

The LTP is one of the most important documents in the arena these days, far more than the LNG contract that members of the opposition parties are clamouring for access to. It is bewildering to see the same members of the opposition parties holding their silence regarding the disclosure of the LTP. How has the silence of the opposition parties been obtained? Have they seen the LTP to be satisfied that no further discussion is required? The demands for CPEC transparency are more consequential for Pakistan’s long-term prospects, especially for its economy, and silence does not serve that interest well.

On DawnNews

Comments (38) Closed

brr

Nov 02, 2017 07:31am

It would be interesting to see if the LTP even casually covers what the total cost for CPEC would be for pakistan at the end, how it will ever pay for it, and what it will get in return - a balance sheet of sorts debits and credits and cash outflows. Such transparency even with fudged numbers are seldom provided in pakistan, especially when it comes to anything remotely called security related.

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Kashif Shahzad

Nov 02, 2017 08:50am

Silence will prevail as average Pakistanis are destined to be kept in the dark. Hopefully, I am wrong but don't keep your hopes up.

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Aslam Abro

Nov 02, 2017 09:00am

There are many regional and international forces trying to disrupt and derail CPEC, perhaps that is why LTP is not being released and projects such as the one food security related CPEC line were initiated without fan fare.

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kamran

Nov 02, 2017 09:48am

it is responsibility of the state to publish complete CPEC Plan and strategy of debt repayment.

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tauseef

Nov 02, 2017 10:10am

I fully agree with the writer as a Pakistani, we all are stakeholders including our future generations. So it is our right to know the terms and conditions between China and Pakistan for CPEC and it should be brought in public knowledge.

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Dev Mehta

Nov 02, 2017 10:16am

So in this huge group of many very large and long term projects who is guarding the interests of future generations? The answer seems to be the press much more than the politicians. But most often press would only find out the details after the ink is dry and the deals are done - just like the examples given in the article.
The press and the public must make very loud noises to insist on the participation, training and timely handover to local human resources - the people who are ultimately paying for all this. It's not just labour but technical and managerial talent as well. Note that without participation you won't have any need for training. And without training you would never be able to receive the handover. It's not that first time, unique or very complicated - use the deals China does with western countries as a guide for your deals with China. Organize - big and fast. It's your money.

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zorro

Nov 02, 2017 10:19am

This CPEC to me, seems like a "white elephant"

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Khwarizmi

Nov 02, 2017 10:37am

I am not afraid of Chinese culture as our own culture is extremely rich, strong and has a long history. Security and economy are the absolute most important issues facing us.

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Zain Hasan

Nov 02, 2017 11:17am

Thank you Dawn and thank you Khurram Hussain for talking about it in such a constructive manner, especially when other media groups are silent about it. Unfortunately whoever tries to raise even valid questions (for the sake of information & transparency) are labelled as "agents".

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M. Emad

Nov 02, 2017 12:15pm

In national interest I want all CPEC deals to be confidential as we have lot of resistance against CPEC across boarder as well as in USA.

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Observer

Nov 02, 2017 12:19pm

Iron brother will put iron in the backside.

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sameer

Nov 02, 2017 12:27pm

cpec will make pakistan a giant

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M. Emad

Nov 02, 2017 12:55pm

Transparency is key to CPEC success.

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Someone

Nov 02, 2017 12:56pm

@zorro : First person in the world who thinks infrastructure development is bad. Hats off to you sir, maybe you should become chief economist

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Faisal

Nov 02, 2017 01:20pm

Well articulated and well reasoned.

Hiding details only show nervousness & incompetence of government staff and holders of its public office. As a Pakistani I am afraid that government will make foolish deals under international pressure and under pressure of its own beneficiaries. We as a nation will continue to suffer. One bad policy has resulted in abundance of Afghans and their associated Crime & Culture in our country....we cannot afford any more.

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FA

Nov 02, 2017 02:05pm

Whatever CPEC brings, my only concern from the very first day is how the interest of Pakistan and its people are being taken care of with all this CPEC saga and what are the measures taken to safeguard all those interests. At the day end if people of Pakistan are not getting any benefit its all useless and even an extra burden on the country.

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shoaib

Nov 02, 2017 02:23pm

It has certainly became a mystery for all of us now.

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Jamal ul

Nov 02, 2017 02:35pm

Well well well
Iron brother is not giving a good deal anyways

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Shehryar

Nov 02, 2017 03:02pm

A well written and balanced article. A good thing about CPEC is that it aims to bring long, sustained investments in different areas of Pakistan's economy. However, Chinese investment in itself will not address all our economic woes. Rather, the interventions under CPEC need to be carefully designed to maximise benefits to both countries.

Experience from other countries, e.g. Chinese investment in agriculture in Laos indicates that poorly thought-out interventions can have drastic consequences for the local environment (through uncontrolled use of chemicals), as well as communities. Likewise, the effects of easier import of Chinese manufactured items on our already precarious current account balance need to be fully considered. In this respect, disclosing the full details of the CPE LTP to the public, and incorporating well-reasoned feedback, are of paramount importance.

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Ahmed

Nov 02, 2017 03:09pm

CPEC will make Pakistan the biggest power in world after China.

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mayuresh

Nov 02, 2017 03:17pm

this is quite perplexing. what makes the chinese think that they can hide important details and everything will go smooth politically. this will impact so many constituencies

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Shahid

Nov 02, 2017 03:54pm

Any plans of this magnitude which matter so much as CPEC does, should be put forward for public debate with full honesty and without hiding any bit of it. A lot of what China is offering us today, is what Soviet Union used to offer the East European countries. We are going to be junkyard of all those air polluting old fashioned industrial units which are no more competitive for any one else to operate. The sentimental slogans of friendship should be kept aside and we need to ask our Chinese partners to transfer know how and technology to Pakistan and help us to establish modern industrial unit instead of all those 50 year old labor intensive pollution machines.

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Anwar

Nov 02, 2017 04:47pm

Sharing the details of such a mega project will ensure that everyone can plan and shape their lives accordingly. Otherwise like every time only a few will know what to do and those few will grow rich leaving poor people where they are. So even if GDP rises poverty will stay. It will be same story like General Ayub time when economy grew but poverty remains because only few rich and powerful enjoyed the fruit of growth.

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Good luck

Nov 02, 2017 11:06pm

@Ahmed No
Number 1 economy.

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hamza K

Nov 02, 2017 11:47pm

@brr pakistan would not be doing this without the net benefit being worth the costs. that is a basic exercise and the NDRC from china and our own PC would likely have something like this. needless to say, there is a massive positive for pakistan to have the worlds most energetic country and largest market wanting to invest in your country. it piques the interest of other investors and has already raised pakistan's profile in the capital markets.

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Raj

Nov 03, 2017 02:29am

National interest should be paramount. Business and friendship are different. So do the business like a businessman and secure your economy and protect your citizen's interest first. It is a matter of fact that,geopolitical relationships changes over the period.

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Farhan

Nov 03, 2017 02:38am

Those who do not demand the accountability today will end up paying more taxes as a burden in future. Stay silent and pay the price!

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Amjad Durrani Engineer USA

Nov 03, 2017 02:52am

Khurram is very right that when he cast his doubt on the CPEC that it is not about connectivity of infrastructure but in reality it is about huge Chinese investments, influx of its people and culture, whether we like it or not. I hope a happening of Sri Lanka is not repeated in Pakistan. I share concern of the writer that consistent concealment of facts about LTP, is indicative of some fishy deals which if propagated will bear negative impact on fairy tales we are being lured with day in and day out. Let us call a spade a spade and pressurize the minister in charge to take the hare out from the hat before it is too late. Khurram is also right about the so called opposition sitting mum over the whole time because, may be they do have some share in the booty at the cost of poor masses of this country who will have to pay back this huge loan by shedding of whatever clothes they are putting on today, in the near future.

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Karachi Wala

Nov 03, 2017 05:00am

My question is simple.
How much is the real "investment" and how much is the loan or contribution by Pakistan government ? And what are the conditions of loan amount.
No body is willing to answer theese basic questions.

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ARSHAD JAMIL

Nov 03, 2017 05:29am

We have to blame ourselves to believe in mirages. Thousands of container trailers are not crossing the motorways to reach Gwadar port. There are no super container ships calling on the port. The motorways shall remain empty, and so will the seaport will remain idle. We have to learn to stand on our feat. Otherwise, we shall remain poor as ever. We had previously also Massive aids and squandered.

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AGHA PASHA

Nov 03, 2017 05:54am

Still afraid of its destiny due no targets achieved do far except heap of loans and interests mounting on nation.

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ddr

Nov 03, 2017 10:57am

Pak needs investments, ok and fine. But why you want personal and culture? Pak do not have enough manpower and unemployment is close to 0?

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bhat

Nov 03, 2017 06:38pm

@Karachi Wala
This is the real question.

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Krishnan

Nov 04, 2017 04:01am

@Ahmed By which date? Why after China? Why not before China?

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karur

Nov 04, 2017 04:29am

CPEC is a classic example of Pakistan putting all eggs in one basket. Chinese are funding the project, using Chinese equipment,materials and services, at prices that Chinese control, on terms that China dictates and eventually the CPEC corridor serves China to transport its goods. This is akin to a concession agreement where the Landlord(Pakistan), merely collects a fee for use of his land

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RAVEENDRA NATH

Nov 04, 2017 11:53am

@Ahmed

Dear Sir, I think you are being very modest. CPEC has the potential to make Pakistan world No.1 power in economy, military, et al and can even surpass China. I am sure even after becoming world No.1 in a few years they will not forget their benefactor and best friend China. They will treat China as equal and all other to beg for forgiveness for not supporting them during CPEC. Pakistan Zindabad.

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Ibraheem

Nov 06, 2017 12:24am

Thanks for raising the issue in such a good way. What i come up with is that we can not simply criticise government to for covering all details as some readers already suggested in above coments, cpec is facing resistance from many big players . But what we can ask is the publicly declaration of financial feasibility regarding post payments and project cost. Being Pakistani Nationals we are the prime stakeholders.

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Ibraheem

Nov 06, 2017 12:24am

Thanks for raising the issue in such a good way. What i come up with is that we can not simply criticise government to for covering all details as some readers already suggested in above coments, cpec is facing resistance from many big players . But what we can ask is the publicly declaration of financial feasibility regarding post payments and project cost. Being Pakistani Nationals we are the prime stakeholders.