Let's face it, the odds aren't in his favour (and I'm talking him down with a view to managing expectations and tempting fate). Murray is spectacularly good - and the most entertaining tennis player on the circuit at the moment by a long chalk - but Rafael Nadal is just that little bit better. Duller, but better. Relentless and better.

Still, here's hoping, and the head-to-head in slams isn't the disaster zone it could be:. Nadal leads 4-2, having beaten Murray in the last 16 at the 2007 Australian Open, in the quarters at Wimbledon in 2008, in the semis here last year, and in the semis of the French Open in May. Murray has triumphed over Nadal in the semi-final of the 2008 US Open, and the quarters of the 2010 Australian Open. Murray's due one. Like that means anything.

4.30pm: The idle chatter on Centre Court turns into a smattering of polite applause as the players walk out. It's almost as though half the crowd have gone off to purchase Pimm's, and the ones remaining are paggered on Pimm's. Either way, it's a low-key start to the big event. Murray almost immediately leaves the court - he's got his bag of rackets, and is wearing both of his shoes, so perhaps he's forgot his wristband - then makes his entrance again. Still no big cheer.

4.35pm: Murray has won the toss. He elects to serve in the first game. The players are knocking up. Nadal is wearing a determined look today - when doesn't he? - but much good that gameface will do him: win or lose Wimbledon, he'll not be world number one any more come Monday morning.

4.40pm: Is the BBC trying to throw everyone into a thundering depression before Murray even has a chance to crash out in three sets? The first celebrity cutaway of the match is of landfill comedians Michael McIntyre and James Corden, chatting away to each other. Maybe they're swapping notes on how they've got away with it.

4.45pm: And we're off! Murray belts down an ace to start, then serves and volleys a second point to go 30-0 up. And then another ace! Can he win his first service game to love writes hack who needs to break this game into two entries in order to segue into the proper format?

First set: Murray* 1-0 Nadal. (*denotes server) Nope. Rafa wins his first point, but Murray responds by whistling down another huge ace. His first-serve averages haven't been the best this tournament; he'll be hoping for more of this, because that's a very impressive opening.

First set: Murray 1-1 Nadal*. A fairly painless game for Nadal. Murray gets his racquet on all but one of the serves, forcing three rallies, but Nadal wins all the points, then finishes off with a booming ace of his own. A fairly painless game, I say, other than some clown shouting "We love you Andy", then a gaggle of other goons laughing at the bon mot. Maybe it was McIntyre testing out some new material. If so, he's getting edgier.

First set: Murray* 2-1 Nadal. At 30-15, Nadal moves Murray around hither and yon, before passing his opponent with a blistering cross-court shot from his own deuce court to Murray's. It's in, but the ball's called out, and Nadal doesn't challenge. Nadal wins the next point, so he's effectively been robbed of the first break point of the match. Murray serves out to hold. All good news, except he's called for the trainer. That hip is playing up again. He's been given the option to get a jab if it doesn't simmer down during the next couple of games, but he'll have to go off court for that.

First set: Murray 2-2 Nadal*. Both players take turns to dump easy strokes into the net, Nadal a forehand, Murray a sliced backhand. Murray looks particularly annoyed, as he had an easy chance to put Nadal away while approaching the net and move 0-30 up. Nadal mops the remaining points up without fuss.

First set: Murray* 3-2 Nadal. An easy service game to love for Murray. Everything's going well. Apart from that dodgy hip, the poor old soul. But there's some good news there too: the pusher comes on, offering powerful drugs, but Murray waves him away. It's the only way to deal with these people. Listen to what Bo Diddley tells you, kids.

First set: Murray 3-3 Nadal*. Nadal goes 30-0 up. Murray sends a screamer down the right-hand sideline, then Nadal dumps a woeful backhand out of play down his deuce court. Nadal bounces back by forcing a Murray error at the end of a 19-shot baseline rally, and before you know it the game is won. This is a proper face off at the moment. "McIntyre and Corden are together?" shudders Louise Wright. "You realise that means that the other two horsemen of the apocalypse are almost certainly on their way? I'd return top your loved ones and wait for the Rapture if I were you. Or just go down the pub." Russell Howard and Joe Pasquale are coming too? Lord help us, there's no need for this.

First set: Murray* 4-3 Nadal. A majestic rally for the first point, Nadal nearly passing Murray at the net but the Scot anticipating well to volley a point-blank winner. Then another mini-classic for the second, Nadal whipping a cross-court backhand through both advantage courts. Murray sees the game out with some more powerful serving. This match isn't exactly exciting as of yet, but the tennis is of very high quality. "That roll call of men's finalists contains some of the finest names I have ever read," opines Daniel Boynton. "It's a close call, but Vere St Leger Goold must be the best. 'Andrew Murray' doesn't really stack up by comparison does it?" I hope I copied that out correctly.

First set: Murray 4-4 Nadal*. Nothing for Nadal to worry about here, as he wins his service game to love. "Sorry, but wasn't Harold Mahony, although born in Edinburgh, really an Irishman from Kerry?" asks Dermot Meagher. Hmm. And for goodness sake, please don't google Vere St Leger Goold, you'll reveal this report to be a tissue of lies.

First set: Murray* 5-4 Nadal. Now it's Murray's turn to hold to love. He's serving big, and standing up to Nadal during the rallies.

First set: Murray 5-5 Nadal*. Murray is sent skittering around this way and that. Twice he retrieves two almost impossible balls, but both times Nadal is waiting at the net to smash them ostentatiously out of sight. Nadal moves 40-0 up, only for Murray to whip two big backhands past him, but it's too late, and another Nadal smash wraps up the game. "Not only is Vere St Leger Goold a great name, but also a man banged up for murder who topped himself when on Devil's Island in 1909," chirps a bouncy Mike Stirling. "You can hardly see Messers Murray or Nadal spending their final year on a French penal colony." Murray's got to win it first for the pleasure of that.

First set: Murray* 6-5 Nadal. And a hearty welcome to the business end of the set! Murray loses the first point, and Centre Court takes a collective sharp intake of breath. A couple of big serves gets Murray back into the game, but Nadal lobs him to take the game to deuce, the first game of the match to go this far. On the second deuce, Murray hits a 135mph ace, then holds after hoicking Nadal left and right, hitting huge forehands into the corners. He's playing very well - but can he take the extra step and steal the set? "As you've alluded to, the tale of Irish aristocrat, Vere St Leger Goold, took many perverse twists after his Wimbledon appearance, culminating in a bizarre love triangle in Monte Carlo, the discovery of a dismembered corpse in a suitcase in Marseilles, and his eventual suicide," reports Brian Hudner. "But it wasn't all bad: he was the subject of a recent play in Dublin, so his infamy has been reheated for another generation." John McEnroe and Jimmy Connors suddenly seem so very lame.

MURRAY WINS THE FIRST SET: Murray 7-5 Nadal*. Another booming forehand, deep into the right-hand corner of Nadal's court, earns Murray the first point. He's really going for his shots. He looks very determined, as though he's decided that passivity really isn't going to get him very far today. Nadal hits long; 0-30. Then Murray wins a Homeric rally, Nadal for once breaking by spooning a ridiculous attempt at a passing shot down Murray's advantage side. Three break points - three set points - to Murray! Nadal serves and volleys the first; 15-40. But there's no more road for him in this first set: he stiffs an uncharacteristically weak forehand into the net, and Murray takes the prize. Centre court erupts, albeit with slight hesitation caused by a soupcon of disbelief.

Second set: Murray* 7-5, 1-0 Nadal. Murray still has a long distance to travel if he wants to become the first British men's finalist since Bunny Austin in 1938. So let's not get ahead of ourselves. Even so, Nadal isn't totally on top of his game: this one starts with an unforced error down Murray's deuce side, the ball well wide of the sideline. Murray, by contrast, is playing with supreme confidence at the moment: he holds back during one long rally, biding his time before advancing to the net and putting Nadal away. Another ace wraps this one up.

Second set: Murray 7-5, 1-1 Nadal*. The crowd at Wimbledon are often accused of not getting behind Murray, but they're with their man now. He wins an outrageous point, retrieving a shot miles to the right of the court, then hoving back into view as Nadal doesn't put his volley away, whipping a winner along the sideline. A huge cheer crackles the atmosphere. It's the only point he wins in the game, mind you. "Can I suggest you use the aforementioned French penal colony reference, combined with Nadal's mastery at Roland Garros, to construct some type of tortuous wrap up line if the worst does happen and Murray doesn't make it through?" asks Daniel Boynton. "Partridge-esque glory beckons." You sell it well.

Second set: Murray* 7-5, 2-1 Nadal. A very easy hold for Murray to love: an ace, another unforced error by Nadal.

Second set: Murray 7-5, 2-2 Nadal*. The game begins with a magnificent rally, Murray always in control, Nadal scuttling around in a panic like he so rarely does. He's eventually battered into submission by a fierce forehand cross-court wallop that sends him sprawling. Another long rally is won by Murray as he wrong-foots Nadal with another booming forehand into the right-hand corner of Nadal's court. Murray should have moved to 15-40, but misses a sitter of a forehand down the right-hand sideline, sending the ball long with Nadal out of the picture. A terrible shot. Nadal, having got away with it, powers through the rest of the game. A big chance missed by Murray.

Second set: Murray* 7-5, 2-3 Nadal. Murray had won five out of six points before missing that chance to earn two break points in the last game. It looks like he might have jiggered his momentum, but in the middle of a rally at 0-15, he comes into the net and puts away Nadal's attempt at a passing shot. He goes 30-15 up, but then shanks a forehand out of play down the left, before double faulting for the first time in the game. It's Nadal's first break point of the match - and it's one he wins. Or rather one Murray loses, missing a smash at the net with the whole court gaping. That's two terrible shots in the last two games, and they could have the effect of twisting a possible two-set lead into a one-set-all scoreline.

Second set: Murray 7-5, 2-4 Nadal*. Now it's Nadal's turn to find the corners, moving Murray about all over the place, while his opponent can't find his range. It's a real turnaround, this; that missed forehand at 15-30 two games ago must be playing on his mind. Along with the dreadful smash that lost him the break. "How long will it take Rafa Nadal to start being injured again?" wonders Kim Sibthorpe. "That boy loves picking up a 'knock'. Even tennis players from Barcelona can't help feigning injury." Ha. He looks pretty sprightly at the moment; he's very much in the ascendency all of a sudden.

Second set: Murray* 7-5, 2-5 Nadal. Murray had gone toe-to-toe with Nadal during the opening set and a half, looking very much the champion's equal, but now he's giving off the whiff of the cowed challenger. The first serves aren't going in, his shots aren't finding the corners, and his drop shots are falling apologetically short. He ends the game by stiffing a backhand into the net, and that's four games in a row for Nadal. The mood in Centre Court has turned a bit sour. Murray really has to put it all behind him, and step up a level again, because this is in danger of unravelling quickly.

NADAL WINS THE SECOND SET: Murray 7-5, 2-6 Nadal*. Murray whips the ball down the right-hand side of the court to win the first point of the game, but despite getting involved in a couple of long rallies, can't win another point. Highlight of the game is an insouciant flick of the wrist from Nadal to nick a ball from his own advantage court into Murray's, an exquisite piece of skill as he was running backwards to retrieve a shot down the line at the time. That's the second set, which from Murray's view fell into dust upon missing that forehand at 2-2, 15-30. From Nadal's perspective, though, he's beginning to crank up through the gears. Murray will be worried.

Third set: Murray* 7-5, 2-6, 0-1 Nadal. Murray's rhythm has completely gone. The first serves aren't going in, the forehands are missing. He's soon facing two break points. And then. And then. He saves the first with a bit of serve and volley, then hammers down an ace. Deuce. But he's soon facing a third break point, a shot down the left-hand line going wide, and he can't save this one, spooning a ludicrous cross-court forehand out of play at the end of an attritional rally. That's a third break of Murray's serve in a row, and six games on the bounce for Nadal. "Ahem, Rafa Nadal is NOT from Barcelona and it is well-known that he supports Real Madrid," corrects Beau Tenebreux. "He does not drink sangria at the intervals. Must try harder." First the Harold Mahony incident, then Vere St Leger Goold-gate, now this. What a sorry farce.

Third set: Murray 7-5, 2-6, 0-2 Nadal*. The crowd are doing their best to raise Murray from his torpor, turning up the volume whenever he earns a point, but that's not often. Nadal is beginning to toy with Murray, sending him skidaddling hither and yon to the extremities of the court. That's seven on the spin for Nadal now. This is getting embarrassing, a grand-slam semi-final and all.

Third set: Murray* 7-5, 2-6, 1-2 Nadal. Finally, a game on the board for Murray. And it's an impressive one as well, to love, one point won by a clever dink at the net, the last by a thundering ace. "I'm glad to see the one-eyed jingoism of football invade the genteel world of tennis," writes Niall Mullen. We try to help. "Those sneaky Spaniards feigning injury! Andy Murray has never had mid-match injuries has he?"

Third set: Murray 7-5, 2-6, 1-3 Nadal*. Murray's getting most of Nadal's serves back in, but otherwise he's getting thrashed about the place. Nadal is happy to get into long rallies, waiting for Murray to wander an inch or two out of position before hammering an unstoppable forehand into either corner. It looks a done deal this, to be honest, Nadal's dominance harder for Centre Court to take because Murray was giving as good as he got for so long.

Third set: Murray* 7-5, 2-6, 2-3 Nadal. Murray is really having to fight for every point, Nadal is so relentless. A magnificent point is won when Nadal whips a ball into the far-left corner, but Murray scampers after it and at full stretch whips an outrageous winner down the line, when he had little right to even reach the ball. "I prefer Henman to Murray because with Henman there was no false hope to be shattered," sighs Shane O'Leary.

Third set: Murray 7-5, 2-6, 2-4 Nadal*. Three aces for Nadal. Any boost Murray would have had from his last service game will have been punctured by those booming serves.

Third set: Murray* 7-5, 2-6, 2-5 Nadal. Murray is beginning to make silly mistakes now. He sends Nadal out of the way with a huge serve that kicks out to the left, but can't put a simple return into an empty court away, netting it instead. It puts him immediately on the back foot in his service game, and he's soon 0-30 down. A pearler of a forehand down the right-hand line, and a lucky net cord, gets him back into the game, but he stiffs another shot into the net to give Nadal yet another break point. And how Nadal takes it, drawing Murray into the net, then snapping a cross-court forehand past him for the double break. That's this set over, then. And, you have to think, the match. Murray looks utterly defeated already, all the momentum of his opening salvo long gone. In some respects, you can't really blame him: Nadal hits almost everything back into play. It must really test the patience.

NADAL WINS THE THIRD SET: Murray 7-5, 2-6, 2-6 Nadal*. Into the corners Nadal's forehands repeatedly fly. And despite throwing his first double fault of the game into the mix, there goes that third set. It's difficult to tell who could live with Nadal when he's playing like this; after a slow start, he's barely missing a beat.

Fourth set: Murray* 7-5, 2-6, 2-6, 0-1 Nadal. Murray's first-serve percentage is under 50%, Nadal's over 75%. In the first set, Murray was knocking 66% of them in, while Nadal was only getting 58% in. There's one reason for the turnaround. Murray loses the first point of his service game, and the inevitable occurs. An ace - his 12th of the match - isn't enough to stem the flow. He cocks up a simple smash at the net, allowing Nadal to whistle a return past him, and then he flaps a weak forehand into the net on the first break point. This, ladies and gentlemen, is over. "Surely given the way he plays and the sheer number of matches, Nadal feigns fitness rather than injury?" asks Gary Naylor. I can't work out what that means. It's like staring at an MC Escher picture.

Fourth set: Murray 7-5, 2-6, 2-6, 0-2 Nadal*. There's no fight left in Murray. But then again, what can you do when your opponent is skelping clean backhand winners across the court from nowhere?

Fourth set: Murray* 7-5, 2-6, 2-6, 1-2 Nadal. Initially better from Murray: a couple of big first serves, and a delicious double-handed cross-court passing shot takes him to 40-15. But then he makes two double faults in a row. Dear God. A real mixed bag, though, because another cross-court winner, followed by an unreturnable serve, secures him the game. The highpoint of which was Nadal sliding across the turf on his buttocks while juggling his racket. Now that's showboating.

Fourth set: Murray 7-5, 2-6, 2-6, 1-3 Nadal*. A blistering cross-court return by Murray offers vague hope, bringing the game to 30-30, but after working Nadal out wide during a long rally, wallops a dreadful forehand straight into the net. Not for the first time today, a real chance to earn himself a break point - no mean feat against Nadal, especially today - goes by the wayside. But he digs in with a couple of points to bring the game to deuce, then clips the ball past Nadal as he lurks at the net to finally get that break point. It's the first of two, but neither are converted, Nadal coming up with the big points when he really needs them, two blistering forehands into the corners. And there goes what may be his last chance. Nadal's game is so immense at present that you can hardly blame him. "Playing Nadal looks like running ahead of a boulder rolling downhill," notes Greg Phillips. "Your only hope is to stop it before it gets going. Murray made a go of it, but how he's all arms and legs, out of puff and about to get flattened like Wile E. Coyote at the end of some far-fetched scheme to catch the Roadrunner."

Fourth set: Murray* 7-5, 2-6, 2-6, 2-3 Nadal. Murray makes his 33rd unforced error of the game. Nadal has only made seven. And all of those came during Murray's golden set-and-a-bit at the start of the game. He does enough to hold his serve, though, coming through from 30-30 by going big with two second serves.

Fourth set: Murray 7-5, 2-6, 2-6, 2-4 Nadal*. Murray has found some more fight in this set. Rather, he's regrouped after being battered senseless, it's not as though he's not been putting a shift in. He passes Nadal down the line with a lovely forehand, and nearly out-thinks him with a diagonal drop shot that drifts just wide left of the court, but it's not enough, and Nadal holds again. Time's running out, though in truth there's little tension, so inevitable is this result. "It's darkest before the dawn," remembers Matt Delargy. "We must believe to the very outposts of lunacy."

Fourth set: Murray* 7-5, 2-6, 2-6, 3-4 Nadal. A drama-free hold for Murray, though even then he requires a zipping cross-court winner, and Nadal still has time to add the most stylish flourish to the game, chasing down a ball dropping just over the net and softly stroking back a winner at a ludicrous angle, the ball wafting down to the turf like a feather in a fabric softener advert. Murray will go to sleep tonight wishing he'd got a few more first serves in. And if only he'd managed to hold at the start of the sets. "Does this mean that Haye won't win tomorrow?" asks Ian Copestake. "I can take this loss (just) if the opponent is as immense as you say. But Haye not beating Klitchko will be too much."

Fourth set: Murray 7-5, 2-6, 2-6, 3-5 Nadal*. Another chance for Murray to win a point on Nadal's serve goes begging at the net. It's the first of the game, and gives Nadal all the momentum he needs to hold easily. The Spanish genius is now one game away from his fifth Wimbledon final.

Fourth set: Murray* 7-5, 2-6, 2-6, 4-5 Nadal. Nadal toys with Murray yet again, twisting him this way and that, before putting him away with a cross-court winner. Another blistering forehand into the left-hand corner puts Murray on the brink at 15-30. Murray wins the next point, but a double fault gives Nadal match point - which Murray saves with a stunning ace. He needs two advantages to hold his serve, but hold it he does. Nadal will serve for a place in the final against Novak Djokovic. Murray loves solving problems with his back against the wall, of course, but this looks like a poser too far.

RAFAEL NADAL BEATS ANDY MURRAY: 5-7, 6-2, 6-2, 6-4. Nadal is quickly 40-0 up, three match points in his pocket. Murray saves the first, after pushing Nadal out wide during a long rally and dinking home at the net, but he can't save the second, and it's all over. The two embrace at the net, Murray smiling generously for a second as he congratulates his friend, but disappointment quickly washes over his face. He did everything he could, flying out of the blocks, but it simply wasn't enough. Nadal stepped it up in the second set, and was untouchable thereafter. An outstanding performance. And another blow for fans of British tennis, who'll have to wait at least 12 more months for the next Bunny Austin to show himself. To the US Open for Murray, then, in late August...