Income = a shitload, just from subs alone. Speculation would require hard numbers on how much they bring in due to transfers, name changes, race changes, pet sales, merch sales, etc.

It's fairly mind blowing that anyone in this company could ever say "we don't have the manpower to do _____" with a straight face.

The income is a lot, but it is nowhere near the billions when you take into account that Chinese don't pay a normal subscription, and pay far less a month than EU and US does. Even if 10 million people payed their 15 dollars a month you still only get 600 million per quarter, which is probably vastly overstated. They make a lot, sure. But basic math alone proves that making over a billion off WoW per quarter is almost completely unreasonable. (also remember it will be less as well due to discounts for paying multiple months and so on)

I think Wow will continue to decline at the same rate - 4 sub/min. I.e. loss of one sub every 15 sec = 500k subs loss per quarter. This Q1 call is very meanfull, cuz it will be the turning point: will this game continue becoming asian-grind-pokemon-style game or we will have a hope, it will turn to it's normal direction, as this happened in Cata.

They've been having trouble keeping up since MoP, they're not a reliable source IMO anymore.

It's not the first place for population information to support the comparison, and it's a fact that US-Thrall turned seriously Horde heavy a while back (near the end of Wrath, if I recall). Used to be a mostly balanced server...now we have 5 total Alliance guilds in the top 120 on the server (top two are 30 and 40 respectively, with the next showing up at 109). Was a bit of a tongue in cheek comment, though...when I last played with any regularity (early to mid-Cata) you could barely turn one way or the other without bumping into another Blood Elf. Was a bit of a game between my friends and I at the time...spot the non-Belf horde player.

The income is a lot, but it is nowhere near the billions when you take into account that Chinese don't pay a normal subscription, and pay far less a month than EU and US does. Even if 10 million people payed their 15 dollars a month you still only get 600 million per quarter, which is probably vastly overstated. They make a lot, sure. But basic math alone proves that making over a billion off WoW per quarter is almost completely unreasonable. (also remember it will be less as well due to discounts for paying multiple months and so on)

You got it right the 15$ per user formula was always a fluke.
They do not receive 15$ subscription fees for each player even in the states.

But almost one fifth of the average earnings are compromised of newly released expansion sales.
Add to that regular box and expansion sales.
Add to that my little pony and other cash shop sales.
Add to that the paid character transfer goldmine created from keeping and recommending dead server.

At the end they speak of yearly earnings. Not quarterly. It never has been billions. Over a billion yes, but not multiple billion.
We seriously need a sticky tutorial for this kind of topic just explaining and reminding of the basic facts,
because everyone keeps making the same mistakes over and over again, repeating the same arguments every 3 months anew.

Originally Posted by Afrasaibi

Pay-to-win models break player trust, and Blizzard has no intention of doing that [...] Game design, half of it is about trust. [...] we are not about pay-to-win in World of Warcraft. That is not gonna happen.

The WoW Token will be available for 20 EUR (15 GBP) from the in-game Shop, and will be set at a starting price of 35,000 gold in the Auction House across the Europe region.

I think Wow will continue to decline at the same rate - 4 sub/min. I.e. loss of one sub every 15 sec = 500k subs loss per quarter. This Q1 call is very meanfull, cuz it will be the turning point: will this game continue becoming asian-grind-pokemon-style game or we will have a hope, it will turn to it's normal direction, as this happened in Cata.

No this topic is asking what is your predictions for the first quater results not how much revenue they have made from it.

How is discussing revenue NOT relevant to the thread title? it does say 'What's your prediction for the Q1 call' right? The title is asking for predictions... poster was discussing something that invariably will be MORE relevant to the investors than the subscription numbers of but one of ATVI's income streams.

If anything, he's the one more on topic.

--- Want any of my Constitutional rights?, ΜΟΛΩΝ ΛΑΒΕ
I come from a time and a place where I judge people by the content of their character; I don't give a damn if you are tall or short; gay or straight; Jew or Gentile; White, Black, Brown or Green; Conservative or Liberal.

How is discussing revenue NOT relevant to the thread title? it does say 'What's your prediction for the Q1 call' right? The title is asking for predictions... poster was discussing something that invariably will be MORE relevant to the investors than the subscription numbers of but one of ATVI's income streams.

If anything, he's the one more on topic.

For starters this is the WOW section of the forums so it is likely that the thread is relevant to the performance of WOW and not Activison-Blizzard as a whole. Also, everyone else that has posted has seemed to get that this thread is about sub numbers. In order for anyone to accurately predict the revenue of WOW we would need to know the breakdown of subs per region, what payment periods they use, have access to sales data of MOP, have figures on transfers and other value added services and know how many COD elite subscriptions there are none of the figures are publicly available.

Whilst what the poster was discussing might have more relevance to an investor it has none to this thread. I can only suggest that if you wish to discuss in depth the financial performance of ATVI there are websites dedicated to such topics.

For starters this is the WOW section of the forums so it is likely that the thread is relevant to the performance of WOW and not Activison-Blizzard as a whole. Also, everyone else that has posted has seemed to get that this thread is about sub numbers. In order for anyone to accurately predict the revenue of WOW we would need to know the breakdown of subs per region, what payment periods they use, have access to sales data of MOP, have figures on transfers and other value added services and know how many COD elite subscriptions there are none of the figures are publicly available.

Whilst what the poster was discussing might have more relevance to an investor it has none to this thread. I can only suggest that if you wish to discuss in depth the financial performance of ATVI there are websites dedicated to such topics.

Then perhaps the thread title should reflect it... perhaps, 'what is your prediction for the sub number?' Hmmm? just a thought.

--- Want any of my Constitutional rights?, ΜΟΛΩΝ ΛΑΒΕ
I come from a time and a place where I judge people by the content of their character; I don't give a damn if you are tall or short; gay or straight; Jew or Gentile; White, Black, Brown or Green; Conservative or Liberal.

Simple; drama and nothing more... The right moment when to say wow is dead when its sub count is at 2m or less, but compared to other MMO's its still alive and I mean EQ still has 500k and yet isnt dead.

EDIT: For the number of subscribers, I think a 100k~200k drop could be reasonable since most of the people I know arent playing wow anymore but again, Im not speaking for the voice of everyone who still plays are quitting.