EXCLUSIVE: 4-in-10 N.H. Republicans Support a 2020 Primary Challenge for President Trump

A significant majority of Granite State voters—and 40 percent of Republicans—say a 2020 GOP primary for President Trump “would be a good thing.” That’s the finding of the latest New Hampshire Journal poll, 18 months ahead of the New Hampshire presidential primary.

In the survey, conducted via landline and online polls of 626 registered voters in New Hampshire, 56 percent of New Hampshire voters said a GOP presidential primary in 2020 would be a good thing, while just 27 percent of voters believe it would be bad. The margin of error for the entire sample is +/- 3.9%. Accounting for design effects, the weighted margin of error is +/- 5.4%. The survey was conducted by Praecones Analytica.

Among registered Republicans, a modest plurality of 47 percent reported that having another Republican candidate as an option would be a bad thing, while 40 percent say it would be good and 13 percent of Granite State Republicans are unsure. The data suggest the possibility President Trump could face a contested GOP primary in 2020.

“The fact that 40 percent of Republicans in an early and influential state like New Hampshire think a Trump primary challenge would be ‘a good thing’ should get the GOP’s attention,” said NHJournal’s Politics Editor Michael Graham. “The fact that nearly 60 percent of unaffiliated voters—all of whom can also vote in the 2020 primary—agree raises the stakes even higher.”

President Trump’s overall approval in New Hampshire, 41 percent approve/54 percent disapprove, closely mirrors the president’s national Real Clear Politics average (43-52 percent). However, his approval among New Hampshire Republicans—72 percent—is at least 10 points lower than his average among Republicans nationwide, another sign that a GOP challenger might gain traction in the Granite State.

Not surprisingly, Trump’s re-elect numbers are relatively low in New Hampshire, with 50 percent of voters saying they are not at all likely to vote for him in 2020 and just 36 percent very likely to give Trump their vote. Against a generic Democrat, Trump trails 38.1 percent to 49.4 percent, with 12.5 percent unsure.