Abbott follows Howard by the book

In 1995, in the lead-up to the March 1996 election, the then opposition leader,
John Howard
, released a 46-page book giving an insight into how he would run the nation.

Entitled The Australia I Believe In, the book carried the subheading “the values, directions and policy priorities of a Coalition government’’.

It was a manifesto of Howard’s philosophy, his attitudes across all portfolios, ranging from the economy and industrial relations to funding for the ABC, and it contained an assault on the Keating government as having a poor record and no integrity.

It was long on rhetoric and promises but lacked detail. It was enough, however, to reinforce people’s negative perceptions of the then government while providing a contrast in the form of the Coalition.

Seventeen years later, at the end of 2012 and in the lead-up to the 2013 federal election, Opposition Leader
Tony Abbott
released a 144-page book entitled A Strong Australia. It carries the subheading “the values, directions and policy priorities of the next Coalition government’’.

Abbott’s second book, entitled Our Plan: Real Solutions for All Australians, released a fortnight ago, carries the same subheading.

The similarities with Howard’s book are entirely deliberate. What worked for the Coalition the last time it deposed a Labor government is being tried again, almost to the letter. And that includes keeping the policy detail, especially the costings, under wraps for as long as possible.

Labor is more than aware of the tactic and it was that, in part, which motivated Prime Minister
Julia Gillard
’s decision last week to announce the election date almost eight months in advance in a bid to force Abbott to cough up, earlier than usual, more than just rhetoric, uncosted promises and criticism.

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It’s not going to happen, of course. The opposition has confirmed it will be leaving its costings until the final state of the budget is known when the Pre-Election Fiscal Outlook is released, 10 days into the campaign proper, which begins on August 12.

Oppositions are never in any hurry to release policy costings and this year will be no different.

One factor in this campaign – and let’s face it, the campaign is as good as on – that will be more pronounced than in 1996 will be personal nastiness.

The reason is that each side sees the other’s leader as its greatest hope. Ask a Liberal MP and they will tell you “they don’t like Abbott but they hate Gillard’’.

A Labor minister is fond of the phrase: “Where there’s Abbott there’s hope."

Labor strategist Bruce Hawker wrote last week that Abbott was Labor’s greatest asset.

“Despite the government’s woes, he remains an unpopular and divisive figure," he said. The Coalition spin-masters have spent the summer trying to rebuild Abbott’s image, much like a golfer tries to rebuild a swing inculcated with flaws. Anyone who plays the great game will know how hard this is.

Abbott is bending over backwards to change.

On Friday, while weighing into Gillard and Labor over
Craig Thomson
by pledging to clean up union corruption, he told reporters: “I really want to be positive about this.’’

The vision books are part of the strategy. Voters know all too well Abbott has been a good opposition leader. “They want to know that we have a plan for government,’’ said one of the brains trust.

Inside the ALP there has been a more subtle shift in strategy. Gillard will lay off the personal stuff this year and leave that to her lieutenants. No more misogyny speeches.

The great variable for both leaders remains
Kevin Rudd
. Gillard’s decision to promote four Rudd supporters at Saturday’s reshuffle was a deliberate act to shore up her leadership. The Rudd camp was trying to claim that the demotion of Justine Elliott from parliamentary secretary to the backbench was an act of provocation. It was not. Elliott told this column that it was as Gillard explained.

Elliott is fighting against coal seam gas in her northern NSW electorate of Richmond. It conflicted with her Trade duties and she willingly relinquished her job.

As The Australian Financial Review reports today, Gillard is more paranoid about Rudd than she lets on. The decision to announce the retirements of
Nicola Roxon
and
Chris Evans
early this year, instead of at the end of last year when it would have made more sense, was motivated largely by the fear of having a caucus ballot during the so-called “killing season’’ for political leaders. A caucus ballot is necessary to replace Evans as the government’s Senate leader.

Abbott, too, wants to keep Gillard where she is, wounded but alive. He’s in a good space right now.