Ahh, thanks for illustrating your own comical misunderstanding of how app profits work!

Nope. My thesis is that the reason developers are flocking to android more than iOS (and that part isn't a thesis; it's fact) is because of greater profit potential currently and in the near future (up to two years).

You do know that app profits are a continuous stream, don't you? Developers don't realize profits only at a set point in time. For at least a moderately successful app, the profits come in almost right away with initial sales, and will continue to grow if either (a) the app grows in popularity OR (b) the user base grows larger. So, since the android user base is growing exponentially faster than iOS, a developer can submit his app to Google Play tomorrow, start getting good profits almost right away, then sit back for the next few years and watch his profits continue to roll in (with maybe only a few app updates in the interim needed). So he's counting on the Android user base to be maybe twice the current size in 12 or 16 months, increasing his profit potential in tandem. It's like investing for continuous dividends and compounded growth. And in this case the developers are "investing" with Android more heavily.

This post betrays an incredibly poor understanding of the subject under discussion, as well as basic math.

Contrary to what you have claimed, it is not a fact that there are more Android developers than iOS developers. There is no central database of statistics about Android developer accounts, and to my knowledge even Apple doesn't release the total number of developer accounts, so there is no way of knowing this. However, we do know that developer interest in Android has declined for the fourth quarter in a row. The reasons for this are related to fragmentation, piracy, and inferior development tools, but especially money.

You are arguing that developers would deliberately choose to leave money on the table for years, if given the choice. A developer is given the choice between making an iOS or an Android app today. She can expect, on average, to make 400% more money from a paid iOS app and 347% more money from an ad-supported iOS app. This is a no-brainer. Every single day, until (and only if) Android reaches revenue parity, she would be making more money on iOS. There is no rational economic incentive to develop for Android first. None.

Let's say the Android user base doubles in 16 months. Let's be generous and say app revenues double alongside it. That means that nearly a year and a half from now, our developer would still be making 50% more on iOS than on Android.

Your description makes it sound like app developing is a leisurely life, where you just sit back and watch the profits roll in, like watching stocks go up. People can afford to make 2+ year "investments" to wait for income. That's not it at all. 60% of apps on iOS—the most profitable platform—don't break even. 80% of developers can't make a living from their apps alone. And you expect these people to shift to a platform that is 400% less profitable?

Do you have any idea how nonsensical your position is? How utterly laughable?

Quote:

Originally Posted by PatNY

And now you're being willfully shifty ....

After having just said "These are not ads in the Opera browser" (your exact words) you now admit right above that the ads are displayed in mobile browsers, after I point out to you your utter confusion. And while ads are displayed in all browsers, the data in this report is for only the Opera browser.

--Pat

LOL I'm glad all this is being saved for posterity.

"Opera says that on its network, apps account for over 80% of all traffic, and 72.7% of all mobile advertising revenue worldwide."

Explain to us Pat, how apps can account for 80% of Opera's ad traffic when, according to you, these ads are only being shown in the Opera browser.

This post betrays an incredibly poor understanding of the subject under discussion, as well as basic math.

Contrary to what you have claimed, it is not a fact that there are more Android developers than iOS developers. There is no central database of statistics about Android developer accounts, and to my knowledge even Apple doesn't release the total number of developer accounts, so there is no way of knowing this. However, we do know that developer interest in Android has declined for the fourth quarter in a row. The reasons for this are related to fragmentation, piracy, and inferior development tools, but especially money.

And your post betrays an astonishingly poor ability to comprehend what people say. I never said there are "Android developers" and "iOS developers" per se, lol. A great deal of developers do cross-platform work and/or are trained to do both. What I have always said is that developers are opting to develop for the Android platform in far greater numbers than they are for the iOS platform. Meaning they are investing their time more often to Android development. This is a fact. These apps do not get created spontaneously out of thin air by themselves. Someone has to create them. Anyone using common sense would understand this. And it's a fact that Google apps have been growing far far faster than iOS apps.

Murray postulated that it was merely porting of old iOS apps. But that's highly unlikely as most porting of old iOS apps would already have been done by now. And if it were just porting, Google apps wouldn't be more numerous than iOS apps as they are now. An example of an app where developers decided to invest their time just with Android and NOT with iOS is Calibre Companion. There is no iOS version.

Quote:

You are arguing that developers would deliberately choose to leave money on the table for years, if given the choice.

Tsk-tsk-tsk. Read, read, again!

No, I am arguing that developers are betting that the longer term (1-2 years) profit potential of apps is greater with Android than iOS due to the fact that the platform itself is growing faster than Apple. They are saying if they go with Apple, they may be leaving money on the table.

Quote:

A developer is given the choice between making an iOS or an Android app today. She can expect, on average, to make 400% more money from a paid iOS app and 347% more money from an ad-supported iOS app. This is a no-brainer. Every single day, until (and only if) Android reaches revenue parity, she would be making more money on iOS. There is no rational economic incentive to develop for Android first. None.

Post a link to support those numbers. And make sure the data is relatively current and that you understand it yourself, lol. No hokey data like you always like to post, please.

Quote:

Your description makes it sound like app developing is a leisurely life, where you just sit back and watch the profits roll in, like watching stocks go up.

Actually, for the developers of a successful app, it can be. But it's not necessarily leisurely if the developer decides to work on an entirely NEW app while the previous ones are pulling in the dough. It's their choice.

Quote:

People can afford to make 2+ year "investments" to wait for income. That's not it at all. 60% of apps on iOS—the most profitable platform—don't break even. 80% of developers can't make a living from their apps alone. And you expect these people to shift to a platform that is 400% less profitable?

Can you please read? PLEASE??? It's such a waste of time when you continually mischaracterize what I write. I didn't say they have to wait for 2 years for any income. Geesh, try a little harder. But I'll repeat what I wrote in my previous post -- it's industry standard that developers are paid in increments over time as their app sells. It's essentially the same whether you develop for Android or Apple. You don't get all your money up front. Only in installments as the app sells.

Quote:

Do you have any idea how nonsensical your position is? How utterly laughable?

Do you have any idea how often you are missing with your reading comprehension? How tremendously ignorant that looks?

Quote:

LOL I'm glad all this is being saved for posterity.

So am I. Because what you write can't stand up to time.

Quote:

"Opera says that on its network, apps account for over 80% of all traffic, and 72.7% of all mobile advertising revenue worldwide."

Explain to us Pat, how apps can account for 80% of Opera's ad traffic when, according to you, these ads are only being shown in the Opera browser.

LOL, I never said these ads can "only" be shown in the Opera browser. Show me where I used the word "only." You are amazing. Maybe you have dyslexia? Or are you just so upset at being proven wrong that you have to put words in other people's mouths to pretend you are correct?

Regarding this report, once again you are using hokey data that you quite don't understand yourself. It's hokey because it is not current. Moreover, it shows you didn't bother to read previous posts because Murray posted a link to this same report -- only he posted the most current data/version. Here's how I replied to Murray:

Quote:

"As for the IDC report, it's just a survey. The fact is, these developers are going for the android platform over iOS. Also, the chart breaks out "Kindle Fire" and "Google Nexus" separately. But they are also the Android platform. So if you add up the numbers given for those two devices PLUS the numbers given for "Android Phones" and "Android Tablets" it appears that the Android platform has more overall interest."

[QUOTE=PatNY;2369087]Do you have anything to back up that contention? That there are a lot of developers doing this for free and as a hobby? I have a hard time believing that. [\quote]
Why? There are a huge number of developers on various platforms who give away their code for free.

Quote:

Also, AFAIK, the developers of iOS apps don't have to pay for the iOS to experiment on either. So your point "a" seems to not make any sense.

You have to sign up for Apple's development programme at $99 a year. Not noticeable to commercial developers, but offputting to hobby ones.

Quote:

You really haven't set forth logical reasons for why developers appear to be opting for Android over iOS. So it has to be money.

Even if these apps are free, they are generating revenue for developers with in-app advertising. So since it's harder to code for Android, there is no incentive to do so unless the promise of overall revenues were greater.

So, under your logic, why does Linux exist?
Why does the GNU toolset exist?
Why does calibre exist?
They are hard to write, and (at least initially) generated no revenue, so there was no incentive to write them, yes?
Thre is a very large free software community that is happy to give away code for free, even if you don't think that makes sense.

Quote:

A having more apps than B certainly does mean that A has more developers. Of course it does.

No it doesn't. It just doesn't.
Each developer is allowed to release more than one app.

Quote:

And because developers are free to code for either A or B, the only reason they'd choose A over B is because of potential profit.

Profit is not the only driving force. If you don't see that, I suspect we aren't going to get much further.
And developers are not free to develop for both A and B, or rather are not free to develop all the same apps on A and B. There are categories of app which cannot be released for iOS.

LOL, I never said these ads can "only" be shown in the Opera browser. Show me where I used the word "only." You are amazing. Maybe you have dyslexia? Or are you just so upset at being proven wrong that you have to put words in other people's mouths to pretend you are correct?

You said

Quote:

After having just said "These are not ads in the Opera browser" (your exact words) you now admit right above that the ads are displayed "in mobile browsers," after I point out to you your utter confusion. And while ads are displayed in all browsers, the data in this report is specific to the Opera browser.

Which gives the impression you think the numbers in the report were only those for the Opera browser. It fact I'm not really sure how else to read it.

I've waited patiently for 9 months for apps that I have on iOS to become available on android. So far only 1 out of about 50 apps are now on android. You can get a lot of good apps on android, but it doesn't compare to what you can get on iOS.

Quality in my opinion based on stability and functionality of apps that run on both platforms. Also availability of apps in both stores. Of course this is just my opinion, how would you objectively measure quality anyway? Not everyone would agree. What is good quality to one person may not be to another.

Quality in my opinion based on stability and functionality of apps that run on both platforms. Also availability of apps in both stores. Of course this is just my opinion, how would you objectively measure quality anyway? Not everyone would agree. What is good quality to one person may not be to another.

Why do you demand that they should run on both platforms? I agree that it is hard to measure or even hard to define so therefore I would never say something like "but the quality is higher in apple's store".

It seems like you meant that the few applications you have tested on both platforms you have thought that the Apple version was of higher quality.

Personally, for third party application I have the same amount or more amount of crashes on my iPad than I have on my Android devices.

Why do you demand that they should run on both platforms? I agree that it is hard to measure or even hard to define so therefore I would never say something like "but the quality is higher in apple's store".

It seems like you meant that the few applications you have tested on both platforms you have thought that the Apple version was of higher quality.

Personally, for third party application I have the same amount or more amount of crashes on my iPad than I have on my Android devices.

Maybe this is just my experience, but a lot of apps crash frequently on my android devices. The nexus 7 is a lot better, but I still get a few crashes/ the device freezing up a few times a week.

There was a time I wanted them to run on both platforms because I wasn't using any iOS devices and so wanted to use those apps which I had previousły used. Now it doesn't matter as much because I'm using both android and iOS.

And while it may be easier to release on Android, in some cases it may be harder to code for, because of all the permutations of tablets and OS overlays out there.

For any devs that this is actually a difficulty factor (as opposed to just pure laziness on their part), I'd really hate to see them try and deal with coding for the desktop. It'd be a complete nightmare for them...

I think there would be a massively larger hobby coder population for Android than iOS. [a) it is free, b) it is easier to release, c) there are many more opportunities for tweaks and customisations, d) it better fits the general hobby coder philosophy]

Agreed - also e) you need a Mac to develop for iOS - you can code for Android on a much wider range of platforms, f) Java is a more widely-known language than Objective-C.

The barrier to entry for hobbyist programming on Android is lower than that for iOS, so I'd definitely expect Android to have a larger cohort of hobbyists.

Regarding this report, once again you are using hokey data that you quite don't understand yourself. It's hokey because it is not current. Moreover, it shows you didn't bother to read previous posts because Murray posted a link to this same report -- only he posted the most current data/version. Here's how I replied to Murray:

As for the IDC report, it's just a survey. The fact is, these developers are going for the android platform over iOS. Also, the chart breaks out "Kindle Fire" and "Google Nexus" separately. But they are also the Android platform. So if you add up the numbers given for those two devices PLUS the numbers given for "Android Phones" and "Android Tablets" it appears that the Android platform has more overall interest."