Lansner: Ducks' popularity on thin ice

Washington political leaders weren't the only folks toying with the edge of a financial cliff this winter.

The National Hockey League came within days of its own cliff -- a lockout of its players that nearly cost it an entire season. If this sports-labor brinksmanship had meant no hockey this year, the loss would have turned off a host of fans, especially outside of hockey's core, traditional markets -- northern, colder towns -- and its modest-sized flock of die-hard supporters.

That potential disenfranchisement would have included me, a Mighty Ducks/Ducks season ticket holder since Day One. Yes, 20 years of ups and downs -- and one glorious Stanley Cup championship!

Yes, Friday night, the boys are back in Anaheim. It's the Ducks home opener -- delayed by three months -- for what will be a shorted, 48-game schedule. (It's usually 82!)

But shortened for what? I'll spare you the labor negotiation subtleties but, basically, owners wanted protection from themselves overpaying for talent, and got some relief. Yet even with a saved season, the business logic for the league's financial future is still hazy.

For starters, the sport's image is sullied by the fourth work stoppage in two decades -- including a lockout that zapped the entire 2004-2005 season. Ugly labor relations -- and the resulting disappointment missed games create for the ticket-buying public -- means that teams like the Ducks will have to work extra hard to make amends to long-time fans. That diverts some attention from the long-running challenge of creating new hockey fans in a town with plenty of entertainment options.

"Every meeting we have, it starts with asking 'How do we keep our support?' and 'How we grow the base?'" says Tim Ryan, the Ducks executive in charge of the team's off-ice day-to-day operations.

OK, Friday night is sold out. Ryan is keeping some secrets on what he says will that evening amount to a "Fan Appreciation Night" -- a hint that the free T-shirt already promised won't be the only giveaway of the evening.

Ryan thinks much of the initial speculation about how fans will greet the truncated season may be too negative. The Ducks business experience to date shows a fan willingness to forget and forgive.

The number of season ticket holder cancellations "can be counted on two hands," Ryan tells me. Ticket sales have been brisk, with three of the first four games all but sold out. (Season ticket holders were offered free tickets for Saturday night's game, as an added "We're Sorry!" message.) And Ducks TV ratings for the season's first two games -- away matches -- were up 15 percent from last year's averages.

But Ryan says the Duck organization isn't letting a quick start -- two wins and good business metrics, so far -- slow the work ahead.

"We're taking nothing for granted," Ryan said. "We will do whatever it takes, both on and off the ice."

That's especially true in Southern California.

This region is no gimmie for a hockey team. Local sport fans have numerous choices -- not to mention fabulous weather that encourages year-round participatory activities.

The labor dispute also hurt a potentially big marketing pop from just down the road. The Ducks' hot rival-- the L.A. Kings -- won the Stanley Cup last spring. Anything that creates local hockey buzz -- even from a hated rival -- is good for the Ducks. But labor news diminished chatter of the Kings' rise to prominence.

Ryan says the Ducks will be doing what they can with marketing at the community level. A tight schedule may limit local events with players, but Ryan says the players and staff will do as much as possible. The Ducks also are committed to buying or building more hockey rinks, to create home-grown fans.

NHL leadership and team owners said the labor dispute was, in part, about creating better league economics so that teams like the Ducks in non-traditional (ahem, warm weather) markets would have a better shot at thriving financially.

Ryan's realistic, saying "It will always be that way" about Southern California hockey's battle for fans. Despite a bit of current start-of-the-year buzz, the Ducks have challenges.

"There's no silver bullet," Ryan says.

The team has long said to be a money loser, but that's tricky math when the owners -- the Samueli family of Broadcom technology fame -- also operate the Honda Center where the team plays.

Popularity is murky. Last year, attendance was relatively flat vs. the previous year -- and off 15 percent from the 2007-2008 peak, the year after the team took the Cup.

And the marquee names are in doubt. The team's wildly popular player -- future Hall of Famer Teemu Selanne -- will retire one year soon. Two high-profile stars -- Ryan Getzlaf and Corey Perry -- are free agents after this season.

Most problematic is that while the bruised image of hockey may be patched up with some giveaways and marketing tools, the true key for the Ducks' financial success is by no means predictable: on-ice success by the team that missed the playoffs last year.

From Honda Center's Section 413, my view is that there's nothing like a few wins to make a grumpy fan happy. But the residual bitterness from the sport's history of labor strife leaves just a small margin for error on the business scoresheet.

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