“The human race, to which so many of my readers belong, has been playing at children’s games from the beginning, and will probably do it till the end, which is a nuisance for the few people who grow up. And one of the games to which it is most attached is called … ‘Cheat the Prophet.’ The players listen very carefully and respectfully to all that the clever men have to say about what is to happen in the next generation. The players then wait until all the clever men are dead, and bury them nicely. They then go and do something else.” —G.K. Chesterton, The Napoleon of Notting Hill

Prediction is a mainstay in just about every industry. We (hopefully) know what’s happening right now, and learning what will happen next can really differentiate us from the competition.

“Data for marketing is more available than ever. It's increasingly easier to understand the cost per acquisition of a new customer and tie down marketing spend to see what's driving profitability. Systems like HubSpot, InfusionSoft and Marketo allow marketers to understand a customer's every interaction with your business.”

And that’s exactly what happened that year. Data got more accurate, more granular and more analyzed. There was also more of it than ever before. Businesses that took advantage of data prospered and those that didn’t … most of them aren’t around anymore.

However there is something important here to notice. While the details would change, the general prediction could have been made pretty much any year since about 2000. Data has been the story of a whole generation of business, it’s always getting better, more accurate and more plentiful.

Growth, whether of content marketing, automation or data analytics, has been a common theme in predictions articles for the last few years. It’s not terribly bold — and in that sense it may not be hard to predict — but it is usually right.

If a particular tactic or strategy shows up in a predictions article two or three years in a row, ask yourself if you’re using it. If not, it might be time to consider a new investment.

2. Predictions of sudden, revolutionary change are usually wrong…

AI has been a hot topic for several years now, but we’re still not quite sure where it’s going. Prognosticators, on the other hand, have brimmed with confidence on the imminent AI takeover for several years now.

Writing in Time in January 2016, two executives at Narrative Science predicted several effects of the AI revolution in 2016: “Employees will work alongside smart machines. Smart machines will augment work and help employees be more productive, not replace them. Analytics industry leader, Tom Davenport, stated it well when he predicted that ‘smart leaders will realize that augmentation — combining smart humans with smart machines — is a better strategy than automation.’”

This might still happen, but it’s fair to say that augmentation didn’t replace automation in 2016 or any year (so far) afterward. One AI promoter pointed out that businesses tend to treat AI as just one more tool instead of a paradigm shift: “AI cannot function as it’s intended to if it is used on an as-needed basis instead of being treated as an integral part of the business.”

What can we take away from this? Beware of predictions that will change everything. Disruptions happen, and businesses must always adapt. But they don’t always disrupt as much as the predictors think.

If a new technology shows up in a prediction article—even for a couple of years—ask yourself how it would actually help. If you can’t think of any reasons, it could be overhyped or the wrong time for your business.

3. …but sometimes revolutionary change happens.

At this point you might reasonably ask why we should pay attention to predictions at all. After all, the obvious predictions are usually correct and the bold one usually wrong. We should keep one eye on prognostications because sometimes they’re right.

Nowadays we mostly remember the ‘90s-era internet for the dotcom bubble and the indescribable sound of dial-up. We knew something about it was going to change commerce forever, we just didn’t know exactly what.

But Clifford Stoll, writing in Newsweekin 1995, was decidedly skeptical that the web would ever take off: “Visionaries see a future of telecommuting workers, interactive libraries and multimedia classrooms. They speak of electronic town meetings and virtual communities. Commerce and business will shift from offices and malls to networks and modems. … Baloney.”

It turns out all of those things happened. Poor Stoll went 0 for 6 in that passage.

If you’ve read this far, you know I tend to be skeptical of predictions of The One Thing That Will Change Everything. If I was writing this in 1995, I probably would have been nodding along to Stoll’s article. Bearing that in mind, it’s important to remember that sometimes One Thing does change everything.

Will the next revolution be AI or the Internet of Things? Maybe. I tend to think not, but I’ve been wrong before. Whatever it is, it’s probably something we’re staring at in the face.

Some name

Charles D. Beard is a writer and editor with more than 10 years of experience, including five years in the B2B space. Before moving to B2B, Charles wrote the financial dictionary for
thefreedictionary.com and served as managing editor for
Urban Tulsa Weekly. A 2006 Rhodes Scholar nominee, he holds a bachelor’s degree in the history of religion from Villanova and a master’s in Middle East politics from the University of London. Charles is married to Brielle and they have three children. He is a fifth generation Oklahoman and resides outside Tulsa.