Conservatives have about eight days to run the campaign they
wanted

DAVID HERLE

From Tuesday's Globe and
Mail

October 2, 2007 at
8:13 AM EDT

The PCs were faced with unpalatable
choices -- stand firm on the faith-based schools policy and
likely lose the election or back away from the policy, with all
of the inevitable fallout from that decision. By taking the
second option, they are acknowledging that the proposal has
damaged their campaign to date such that they cannot win without
changing it.

It was the right call. Some may say it
is too late, but it is never too late to stanch the bleeding as
long as the patient is alive. What happens now? The first battle
is for the frame or characterization of this announcement, a
phase the PCs cannot allow to last for more than a couple of
days. John Tory is arguing that he has listened to Ontarians,
heard that there is no consensus in favour of this idea and he
has made the appropriate correction. He will characterize this
as a symbol of strong leadership, since that has been the theme
of their campaign.

The Liberals will go one of two ways. If
they want to keep the issue itself alive, they will call Tory's
move a smokescreen and say that a majority government led by Mr.
Tory could still bring in this policy with a free vote. If they
want to use the issue to undercut Mr. Tory on a leadership level
they will seize on his change of heart, accept it as face value
and claim it demonstrates both lack of principle and judgment
rather than leadership. The PCs will then have eight or so days
to run the campaign they wanted to run from the beginning:

1. Run on issues more favourable to them
- crime, taxes and Liberal broken promises, not health and
education - that are also more likely to animate their core
voters;

2. Move Liberal/PC swing voters over to
them by appearing unthreatening to public services, highlighting
areas of public dissatisfaction with the Liberal government and
focusing on their leader, who runs neck and neck with the
Premier on leadership.

David Herle, a
political consultant and strategist, is a former top adviser to
Paul Martin and is now principal of the Gandalf Group