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March 21, 2012

[Congress Party leaders
had hoped a good showing in the recent elections in five states would provide
the party with a public endorsement and strengthen the national government by
attracting new allies. But when the results were announced on March 6, the
party fared poorly in the crucial states of Punjab and Uttar Pradesh, and lost
an opportunity in Goa, while winning power in the small states of Uttarakhand
and Manipur.]

NEW DELHI
— After the policy paralysis and political acrimony of last year, India’s coalition national
government had hoped this year would be different. Yet already the government
is troubled by infighting among coalition allies. And the Indian National Congress Party, which
leads the coalition, has been further weakened by lackluster showings in recent
state elections.

For India, the prospect
of another year of political stasis has deepened the sense of gloom among
business leaders and others already frustrated by the government’s inability to
tackle crucial reforms at a time when India’s economy is slowing down. Even as
most economists are still confident about India’s long-term future, the
optimistic mood that once prevailed is now tempered by growing doubts.

“The greatest single
challenge the government faces is restoring confidence in the idea of high
growth, that India is a high-growth country,” said Nitin Desai, a former chief
economist to the Indian government.

Congress Party leaders
had hoped a good showing in the recent elections in five states would provide
the party with a public endorsement and strengthen the national government by
attracting new allies. But when the results were announced on March 6, the
party fared poorly in the crucial states of Punjab and Uttar Pradesh, and lost
an opportunity in Goa, while winning power in the small states of Uttarakhand
and Manipur.

Many analysts and even
some party insiders say the elections revealed the party’s organizational
weaknesses and exposed the risks of depending too much on the appeal of the party’s
ruling family, the Nehru-Gandhi dynasty. Rahul Gandhi, who is often considered
a prime minister-in-waiting, campaigned extensively in Uttar Pradesh, the
country’s most populous state, yet failed to achieve major gains there.

The mediocre showing in Uttar
Pradesh has been portrayed as a personal comeuppance for Mr. Gandhi, but some
party insiders say the deeper problem is the structural disconnect between
party leaders — the so-called High Command led by Mr. Gandhi’s mother, the
party president Sonia Gandhi — and grass-roots workers.

Like most Indian
political parties, the Congress Party lacks much internal democracy; the High
Command selects candidates for state and national elections rather than holding
competitive primaries. Many analysts say primaries would help the party
cultivate stronger organizations at state and local levels — and make it more
competitive, as regional parties are presenting themselves as more attuned to
local concerns.

“There is such
concentration of power right at the top that the connection between the leaders
and the workers is completely broken,” said Mani Shankar Aiyer, a Congress
Party member of the Rajya Sabha, the upper house of Parliament. He added,
“That’s the kind of lesson that my party needs to learn.”

This top-down
dispensation of positions has already marred what had been a bright spot for
the Congress Party. In the state election in Uttarakhand, where the party won
enough seats to form a government (though barely), the High Command overlooked
a popular state leader and appointed someone else as chief minister, inspiring
a rare insurrection from members of the state party.

Improving internal
democracy is not a new idea within the Congress Party. Mrs. Gandhi’s husband,
the former Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi, who was assassinated in 1991, had
proposed creating primaries. Yet the party has never followed through, partly
because of fears that it could be splintered into factions, partly because the
Gandhis represent a unifying force. Yet investing so much in promoting the
personalities and mystique of the Gandhi family bears risks, too.

“Now, the Congress Party
realizes that the country is changing,” Mr. Desai said. “Voters are judging
parties in terms of performance, instead of personalities. This is the message
from the elections: Perform or perish.”

Digvijay Singh, a key
party strategist and an architect of the failed campaign in Uttar Pradesh,
predicted that voters would support the Congress Party in national elections
and noted that the party did gain vote share in Uttar Pradesh, if not as much
as leaders had hoped. He blamed the lack of a credible statewide leadership for
the Uttar Pradesh results — in which the regional Samajwadi Party took power —
and said the other national party, the Bharatiya Janata Party, had fared even
worse.

“The national parties
have to strengthen their political leadership at the state level,” Mr. Singh
said. “We have tried, but there are some problems.”

In New Delhi, the
Congress Party has been on the defensive since the election results were
announced. Indian media outlets have speculated on whether the government will
fall, meaning early elections, while some regional leaders have loosely
discussed organizing a “third front” coalition of regional parties to contest
national parliamentary elections in 2014.

Meanwhile, allies, more
than enemies, have restricted the government’s ability to move forward on
important economic reforms.

Mamata Banerjee, leader
of the Trinamool Congress Party, whose support is critical to the survival of
the government, has exercised de facto veto power on several issues. This week,
she demanded the resignation of the railways minister, a member of her own
party who bucked her wishes by presenting a budget that called for fee
increases that Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and others considered essential.
Mr. Singh was forced to accept the minister’s resignation, even as he praised
the minister and the railways budget proposal.

At the same time, with
newspaper editorials calling for bold measures, Finance Minister Pranab
Mukherjee last week presented a cautious budget plan — careful not to alienate
allies like Ms. Banerjee — that drew some tepid praise alongside complaints
that too little was done to address India’s fiscal deficit or to stimulate
growth.

Mr. Desai, the former
chief government economist, was less critical. He pointed to new financing for
infrastructure projects and a commitment to reduce bloated subsidies on
commodities like fuel, a huge drain on the budget.

“The main thing is they
must deliver on the things they have promised,” he said. “Let’s see.”

[American hopes that the parliamentary review would conclude this week received a setback when the speaker adjourned the debate until Monday, ostensibly to allow the opposition to consider its position. There was another possible reason: Prime Minister Yousaf Raza Gilani is locked in abruising confrontationwith the senior judiciary that is due to resume in the Supreme Court on Wednesday and that could, under one possible outcome, lead to his resignation by the weekend.]

By Declan Walsh

ISLAMABAD,
Pakistan— A major parliamentary review of
relations with the United States opened on Tuesday with calls for an end to
drone strikes and for an unconditional apology for an Americanattack that killed Pakistani
soldierslast
November.

The demands, read to Parliament by the chairman of a
cross-party national security committee, set a tough tone for a long-awaited
debate that the United States hopes will bring a resumption of full diplomatic
relations and the reopening ofNATOsupply
lines through Pakistan.

“The U.S. must review its footprints in Pakistan,” said the
five-page document, which read like a laundry list of Pakistani requests to the
Obama administration. “No overt or covert operations inside Pakistan shall be
tolerated.”

American hopes that the parliamentary review would conclude
this week received a setback when the speaker adjourned the debate until
Monday, ostensibly to allow the opposition to consider its position. There was
another possible reason: Prime Minister Yousaf Raza Gilani is locked in abruising confrontationwith the senior judiciary that is due
to resume in the Supreme Court on Wednesday and that could, under one possible
outcome, lead to his resignation by the weekend.

Stressing that the United States should respect Pakistani
“sovereignty, independence and territorial integrity,” the committee called on
the Central Intelligence Agency to halt its drone strike campaign in the
country’s tribal belt, which has resulted in at least 265 attacks since January
2008.

In the future, it added, there should be no American “hot
pursuit or boots on Pakistani territory” — a possible reference to the raid
thatkilled Osama bin Ladenlast May — and it recommended tighter
controls on foreign security companies operating in the country.

Pakistan’s military and civilian leaders are hoping to
leverage anger at the November shooting episode, in which American warplanes
killed 24 soldiers in an exchange of fire along the northwestern border with
Afghanistan, to gain concessions from the United States.

The committee called for a “thorough revision” of the
agreement governing the 1,000-mile NATO supply route through Pakistan.

Pakistani officials say they intend to levy a transit tax
on American military goods passing through their territory. The committee
report suggested that half of all NATO traffic in the future be moved via the
country’s dilapidated railway network. The supplies are now transported by
road.

The recommendations of the parliamentary review are not
binding. But they are the product of cross-party consensus and will shape the
mood of next week’s debate, which is likely to last two or three days.

Some clauses acknowledged American concerns — the
“elimination of terrorism and combating extremism,” promotion of peace talks
with the Afghan Taliban and strengthening security along the notoriously porous
Afghan border.

But others stressed ties with American strategic rivals,
like China and Russia, and called on President Asif Ali Zardari’s government to
“actively pursue” a planned gas pipeline from Iran — a project that Washington
has strongly opposed.

Kamil Ali Agha, a senator from the Pakistan Muslim League-Q
party, predicted a “very detailed and very lively” debate next week. “This is a
very, very important issue for each and every Pakistani,” he said.

A resumption of full diplomatic relations with the Obama
administration now looks unlikely before the middle of next month. American
officials say they are ready to negotiate tariffs on NATO transit goods but
will not consider an end to the C.I.A. drone campaign, which is viewed as a
vital weapon against Al Qaeda and Taliban extremists operating from Pakistani
soil.

The United States is also likely to offer a form of
official apology, probably from the military, for the November airstrike. Plans
to apologize earlier this month were shelved after controversy exploded in
Afghanistan over the mistaken burning of Korans atBagramAir
Base.