Independent likely voters shift to Democrat Hillary Clinton, giving her the lead over Republican Donald Trump in the critical swing states of Colorado, Florida, and Pennsylvania and moving her into a tie with Trump in Ohio, according to a Quinnipiac University Swing State Poll.

Clinton also has double-digit leads among women likely voters and leads of 28 to 76 percentage points among non-white voters, the poll finds.

“Secretary Clinton has held or increased her lead following the second debate,” said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll. “Obviously the allegations by a number of women about Donald Trump’s behavior have taken a toll among some of those who had been in his column.”

“Of particular importance are the Clinton leads in Florida and Pennsylvania. Trump probably can’t win if he loses one of them, and he’s toast if he loses both. In addition, Trump’s lead in Ohio, his best big swing state, is now gone,” Brown added.

“Trump’s best hope is a knockout win in the last debate Wednesday evening, his last shot at a national audience. Once the Wednesday debate is over, the last three weeks of the campaign will be fought by competing turnout machines and TV commercials. Many observers believe Clinton has the superior ground game and money edge to dominate the airwaves.”

“Some Colorado comfort for Hillary Clinton and Sen. Tim Kaine. For Donald Trump and Gov. Mike Pence, a cold shoulder and a mountain possibly too high to climb,” said Tim Malloy, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll.

“Hillary Clinton is holding a thin lead in Florida because she is winning the battle for independent voters and holding her lead among women, non-white voters and her Democratic base. Libertarian Party candidate Gary Johnson, considered the alternative to Clinton or Trump, is not catching fire in the Sunshine State,” Brown said.

The big shift is among independent voters, who go from 52 – 33 percent for Trump October 3 to a virtual tie today, with 41 percent for Trump and 40 percent for Clinton. Republicans back Trump 89 – 6 percent, while Democrats go to Clinton 94 – 3 percent.

“Ohio has been Donald Trump’s best of the major swing states, giving him a five-point lead earlier this month. But here, too, the controversies seem to be taking their toll on the Trump vote. The race in the Buckeye state is a dead heat and the poll’s internals show just how tight the race is there. Trump is leading by 14 points among men; Secretary Clinton up 12 points among women,” Brown said.