Sep 26, 2017

Important Points For Traders From Mark Douglas's 'Trading In The Zone'

Mark Douglas has written one of the best books
on the psychology of successful trading. In his book, Trading
In the Zone, Douglas discusses how a trader can begin to
eliminate the emotional risk of trading via a probabilistic mind-set. A
probabilistic mind-set is essential to understanding the market because the
market is “always communicating in probabilities.” In other words, the
market does not speak Chinese, English, Russian, or bullish or bearish…it
speaks probability. If we plan on living in China we need to learn
Chinese, if Russia then Russian. If we plan on making a living in the
market then we need to learn the language of probability. A probabilistic
mind-set consists of internalizing the following fundamental truths:

1. Anything
can happen. Or as I like to say, anything can happen…and
often does. Usually the market does the exact opposite of what we think it
should do and when we begin to doubt the market it does exactly what we once
thought it should do. Get it?

2. You
don’t need to know what is going to happen next in order to make money. Trading
is not about being right in our arrogant predictions, it is about making
money. We are never going to be able to predict what will happen next
either in the market or in life so let’s just get over it once and for all.

3. There
is a random distribution between wins and losses for any given set of variables
that define an edge. Trading is like tossing a coin: we
can have five wins in a row or five losses; we could win one lose
one. Wins and losses are random so do not bet the farm or the crops.

4. An
edge is nothing more than an indication of a higher probability of one thing
happening over another. Call it what we will but if we
have a system, a methodology, a strategy, an edge for locating a trade then we
have found an indication of a high probability circumstance that has been
historically proven to repeat itself over and over again and will probably do
so in the future.

5. Every
moment in the market is unique. No matter how many times
we have traded an edge the outcome can be different this time and no matter how
perfectly matched this pattern
is with the last one, this one is truly unique if for no other reason than in
this market the participants are not the same as in the last one. The market
is too diverse and too fluid to be put in a box, wrapped up and sold to the
next consumer.

The first point in
favour is that it is a wholly owned tata group subsicidiary with Tata Projects
Ltd holding 75% and 25% with public.

Second point is
that it is ruling at PE of below 10, while its most of peers are ruling around
PE of 20. We believe, and as India is entering into altogether new era of
growth where engineering EPC services will be definitely in lot of demand,
ARTSON due to its patronage and experience will have a lot of work to do. It has
small market cap of about 250 cr while topline of 100 crore. On the
profitability and topline growth the company lacks attraction but due to a small
about 4 crore equity, the stock price usually tend to fire up terrifically in
case of big order win or spike in profitability or some corporate development. Company
is not paying diviend, so don’t buy for dividend.

TECHNICAL PICTURE:
as you can see in the chart, the price has been gyrating between 20 and 100 for
over last 20 years, we believe that Indian stock market has entered into new
leg of upsurge and this stock can deserve a place in a long term owners
portfolio who wishes to just strike gold at the same time remaining on the safe
side as the most benefitial investment niche to buy in a good company at a good
price is that if it falls you buy more and that too without fear in fact with
pleasure, as you know that you are doing the right thing. This stock clearly
belongs to the evid portfolio investor.

This
is only a brief commentary; you can contact us for complete research, analysis
and view on the stock.

Join
one of our services for getting regular trading calls in all segments like
equity stock cash intraday, positional, index options, index futures, stock
futures, stock options and intraday and positional in all of the segments with
high accurate less calls with small stoploss and bigger target with
personalized service for tracking your profits/losses with us, that’s what we
call assured profit services.

This
is only a brief of a full report. It is possible, that we have already given
this stock recommendation to our clients, or will give it in future, and may
exit/reenter as per deem fit to us, updates of which are not possible to give every
time.

Research
in stock market, about companies is subject to change on day to day basis due
to news and developments etc.

Disclaimer:
We or our clients may be holding positions in one or more or all of the stocks
recommended by us.

Go
check out our site for details or email us or call us for detailed discussion.

This
is only a brief commentary; you can contact us for complete research, analysis
and view on the stock.

Join
one of our services for getting regular trading calls in all segments like
equity stock cash intraday, positional, index options, index futures, stock
futures, stock options and intraday and positional in all of the segments with
high accurate less calls with small stoploss and bigger target with
personalized service for tracking your profits/losses with us, that’s what we
call assured profit services.

This
is only a brief of a full report. It is possible, that we have already given
this stock recommendation to our clients, or will give it in future, and may
exit/reenter as per deem fit to us, updates of which are not possible to give
everytime.

Research
in stock market, about companies is subject to change on day to day basis due
to news and developments etc.

Disclaimer:
We or our clients may be holding positions in one or more or all of the stocks
recommended by us.

Go
check out our site for details or email us or call us for detailed discussion.

This
is only a brief commentary; you can contact us for complete research, analysis
and view on the stock.

Join
one of our services for getting regular trading calls in all segments like
equity stock cash intraday, positional, index options, index futures, stock
futures, stock options and intraday and positional in all of the segments with
high accurate less calls with small stoploss and bigger target with
personalized service for tracking your profits/losses with us, that’s what we
call assured profit services.

This
is only a brief of a full report. It is possible, that we have already given
this stock recommendation to our clients, or will give it in future, and may
exit/reenter as per deem fit to us, updates of which are not possible to give
everytime.

Research
in stock market, about companies is subject to change on day to day basis due
to news and developments etc.

Disclaimer:
We or our clients may be holding positions in one or more or all of the stocks
recommended by us.

Go
check out our site for details or email us or call us for detailed discussion.

Company
is into film aggregation and monetisation through tradition media and New media
like You Tube with New Media revenue growing over 35% share of revenue of 24%.
Company has increase its investment in films though increase in Inventory of
longer duration right.

Company
came out with inline number in Q1 post impact of Demonetisation in previous 2
quarter. In Q1 again inventory increased by 75cr but managment clearified that
this Inventory is mainly of regular business and not increase in Investment as such
will correct over coming quarters. Company was into increasing its Investment
portfolio in films since last 3-4 years and was expected to come out of its
Investment phase in the current year which will help it to generate free
cashflow.

Managment
has given guidance of FY 18 closing inventory to be lower than FY17 Inventory
which indicate Investment phase is over and company can start generating free
cash flow which can rerate the stock. Stock is trading at PE of 12x. Outlook
Positive.

We
recommend buy for medium and long term as well. And expect at least 100% return
in 1-3 years.

This
is only a brief commentary; you can contact us for complete research, analysis
and view on the stock.

Join
one of our services for getting regular trading calls in all segments like
equity stock cash intraday, positional, index options, index futures, stock
futures, stock options and intraday and positional in all of the segments with
high accurate less calls with small stoploss and bigger target with
personalized service for tracking your profits/losses with us, that’s what we
call assured profit services.

This
is only a brief of a full report. It is possible, that we have already given
this stock recommendation to our clients, or will give it in future, and may
exit/reenter as per deem fit to us, updates of which are not possible to give
everytime.

Research
in stock market, about companies is subject to change on day to day basis due
to news and developments etc.

Disclaimer:
We or our clients may be holding positions in one or more or all of the stocks
recommended by us.

Go
check out our site for details or email us or call us for detailed discussion.