*Super Bowl picks, from the esteemed all-below-.500 panel, will go up later today. Much suspense across the nation: John Ryan is a historic 0-10 vs. the spread in the playoffs and has not yet sent me his big game selection. His Supe pick could move the spread–opposite of what he picks, obviously.

Short and sweet 1-2-3, no hem-hawing here (I hope), just like going through the Giants’ line-up in the middle innings last year…

1-This one has been a head-scratcher for a few weeks, and maybe Baggs has an answer for me:

The Giants submitted $8M–at the time it seemed low and it seems VERY VERY low now–as their arbitration number for Tim Lincecum, who submitted $13M.

Why would the Giants offer such a low number, why stick to it (after Ben Sheets got $10M from the A’s after not throwing a pitch in 2009 and after Justin Verlander just got 5 years, $80M)?

Why set up a potential immense lose-lose situation–with Lincecum being upset by their stance and still winning his $13M number?

Why tempt fate with their franchise player who is worth every penny of $13M and more, more, more?

I haven’t understood why the Giants, even after submitting $8M, wouldn’t just tell Lincecum’s agents that they’ll pay $12M right now, and offer $30M for two years if that’s what they want.

Baggs’ theory is the first one that makes any sense to me: Maybe Bill Neukom wants to keep some chits in his pocket with the A’s-San Jose territorial rights issue currently up for league-wide ownership consideration.

It’s very possible that the Giants’ South Bay rights are more valuable, at this point, than keeping Lincecum happy so many years from free-agent eligibility.

At least it means the Giants need to be SEEN trying to keep the number under $10. So when future owners have their own arbitration stare-downs with future mini-Lincecums, they won’t be furious that the Giants knocked down the precedent this winter.

A cagey Neukom could always presume that Lincecum’s feathers might be slightly ruffled now, but a future deal, with mega-millions, when Lincecum is closer to free agency, will settle that all down.

Right now, it’s about positioning. It’s the best theory I’ve seen. But it has major risks, too.

2–Further detailing that individual scoring stats don’t mean that much in the NBA, at least not as much as many fans and media members think they do…
OK, time to infuriate Kevin Martin fans, just like I’ve infuriated Monta Ellis fans for weeks now.

The Kings have been awful in past seasons with Martin. They’ve been awful when he’s been hurt in past seasons, too. But his fans say he’s awesome, no matter what.

This year, the Kings started 1-4 before Martin got hurt. Then he missed 32 games, and they went 14-18 with Tyreke Evans dominating the ball and doing some very interesing things.

Martin came back 11 games ago, and the Kings are 1-10 in those games. (Only victory was at home over the Warriors, so that only barely counts as an NBA victory.)

He’s averaging over 21 points a game–GREAT PLAYER!!! ALL-STAR SNUB!–but the Kings are averaging only 95.5 points in those 11 games.

In the 32 that Martin was out, the Kings averaged 100.7 per game.

Of course, Martin’s still a terrible defender, and the stats show it. But it’s more to the point that he’s considered a big-time scorer, and yet the Kings are worse offensively with him on the floor than off of it.

The on/off floor stats show that: 45.7% EFG when he plays, 50.6% EFG when he’s not playing.

Oh yes, the plus/minus, which everybody loves: Martin is a -108 in 16 games, which is -6.7 per game.

The Kings are -3.8 per game as a team. That’s a terrible -2.9 plus/minus ratio for Martin (almost 3 points a game worse than the team, per game).

Evans is -3.9 in the over plus/minus (not good), but he’s young, and he’s not much worse than the team’s plus/minus. I ran Jason Thompson’s numbers, too, as a test-case: He’s -3.1 per game, which is slightly better than the team.

Caveat: The Kings played a ton of home games (19 of the 32) precisely when Martin was out, and since his return have played 8 of 11 on the road. And they’re a horrendous road team.

Let’s see if the numbers balance out as the Kings played some more home games with Martin in the line-up.

I think King would best be represented in the Basketball Hall–nobody called an NBA game more passionately and powerfully and with more integrity and connection to the fans, but the Basketball HOF is the stupidest in the world.

They’ll probably put Vitale in 10 more times (or whoever Bobby Knight orders them to put in) before putting a legendary local broadcaster like King in.