Objective, impartial advice for Property Investors and Landlords with a focus on the Edinburgh area

Thursday, 27 April 2017

How the UK General Election will impact the Edinburgh property market?

Well, it all came as a bit of a surprise – Theresa May
calling a snap UK General Election on 8 June 2017.

When I first heard the news, my immediate reaction was
that calling the UK General Election was, on balance, a smart move for Theresa
May as if she wins (as the opinion polls are strongly suggesting) she will gain
more power in both the EU Brexit negotiations and with the hard-liners in her
own party.

However, how the UK General Election will impact the
property market in Edinburgh is another matter; one that may become (slightly)
clearer over the weeks of the UK General Election campaigning as Party
Manifesto’s become clearer (or should I say slightly less opaque/unfocussed!). I am looking forward to posting on this
subject over the next few weeks.

As a starter to this, regulation wise, the UK General Election
is not going to directly affect the Edinburgh property market as housing is a
devolved matter so it is the Scottish Government that sets the regulations on housing. In fact, the Scottish Government is more
advanced in it’s regulation of housing than the rest of the UK, so if anything
some of the Scottish regulation may be exported to the rest of the UK.

Historic experience would suggest that UK General Elections
does not have a significant impact on the housing market. The graph below shows the number of housing
transactions per month since 1995 and the dates of the 5 UK General Elections
since then. This shows that there have
not been significant movements in the number of housing transactions around the
times of these Elections.

So am I saying that UK General Elections are not
important to the Edinburgh property market?
Well, no and, actually, strongly no particularly in this case.

The Edinburgh property market is likely to be influenced
by three key things coming out of the UK General Election – the future
direction of the UK Economy, the stance on Brexit negotiations following the UK
General Election and whether the UK General Election makes IndyRef2 more or
less likely.

Keep reading The Edinburgh Property Blog over the next
few weeks for further analysis of how the UK General Election will impact the Edinburgh
property market.

However, take heart from my mantra – we are not building
enough new properties to satisfy the growing demand for property resulting from
the growing population, people living longer, people wanting/needing to live on
their own more etc. Given this, whatever
comes out of the UK General Elections, the fundamentals of supply and demand is
likely to mean good things for the Edinburgh property market.

No comments:

Post a Comment

About This Blog

This blog follows the buy to let market in Edinburgh. You'll find tips, guidance, and analysis that relates specifically to Edinburgh and you'll also find properties from all the estate agents in the city on here that may make decent investments.

Follow by Email

Robert Young

I operate The Key Place and if you're thinking of buying a property to let in Edinburgh, I'll be happy to advise or just offer a second opinion. I can be contacted on news@thekeyplace.co.uk, or 0131 603 4570.