There is some reason to believe that things could turn around. Houston won nine games last season. Jacksonville and Tennessee each took some smart calculated chances on younger free agents. But while the teams chasing the Colts search to find or develop their Andrew Luck, the Colts attacked free agency with aggression to support the real thing. The gap is only widening at the top of the AFC South.

1. Indianapolis Colts

Why the Colts stand apart: General manager Ryan Grigson knows that winning a poor division isn't enough. The Colts haven't lost a division game since 2012, but the Colts' roster had more holes than perhaps any playoff team a season ago. Grigson attacked the offseason like the Colts were coming off six wins and his job was on the line. Perhaps it is; the pressure to capitalize on Andrew Luck's prime (starting now!) is immense. Just ask Jim Mora about his time with Peyton Manning.

What's next?

» Sign T.Y. Hilton long term: It sounds like the Colts will wait until 2016 to give Andrew Luck big money, so why not lock up his top receiver first? Hilton, Allen and Fleener were all drafted together, so the team will need to prioritize soon. Hilton should come first.

» Bulk up both lines: The Colts still need to get tougher up front on both sides of the ball. It should be a focus on draft day.

» Get Robert Mathis healthy: The biggest Colts addition this season could be the healthy return of Mathis. Then again, it's hard to count on a 34-year-old coming off a torn Achilles' tendon.

2. Houston Texans

Why the Texans are closer to No. 3: The Texans closed the gap in the standings last season, but they are still in transition under coach Bill O' Brien. They are closer to Jacksonville and Tennessee than being a true title contender. Re-signing Ryan Mallett and bringing in Brian Hoyer is an uninspiring band-aid to the team's quarterback question. Watching Andre Johnson head to the Colts hurt the fan base deeply, not to mention the Texans' offense. That's not to say it was a lost offseason.

Receiver Cecil Shorts and safety Rahim Moore were good pickups for their prices, and Vince Wilfork can help the team's run defense in a limited role. This is a squad without enough weapons or reliable players in the passing game, so they will have to be great everywhere else to make up for it.

Texans' moves

Re-signings

Arrivals

Departures

CB Kareem Jackson

QB Brian Hoyer

WR Andre Johnson

QB Ryan Mallett

S Rahim Moore

S Kendrick Lewis

T Derek Newton

WR Cecil Shorts

LB Brooks Reed

WR Nate Washington

C Chris Myers

DT Vince Wilfork

QB Thad Lewis

What's next?

» Continue to build up wide receiver group: The Texans need weapons, whether it's at wide receiver or tight end. In a passing league, they risk being punchless.

» Beef up at linebacker:Brian Cushing and Jadeveon Clowney are big injury questions. Akeem Dent could be forced to have a big role inside. The team needs more options on the inside and more pass rushers on the outside to make Romeo Crennel's defense work.

» Keep expectations reasonable: It's a lot harder to go from good to great in the NFL than it is to bounce back from an embarrassing season. The Texans improved their win total by seven last season, but a slide back under .500 is more likely than another step forward with this roster.

3. Jacksonville Jaguars

NFL Now delivers a non-stop video stream highlighting the next generation of NFL talent in preparation for the 2015 NFL Draft. Start using it now!

Thomas is the X-factor here. Blake Bortles needs help badly from his offensive line and his weapons. Thomas is talented, but also could drive Peyton Manning crazy at times. Odrick is a great versatile piece, and House could be a quality starter. The Jaguars projected bigger roles with their free agent signings, paying starter prices to players who weren't every-down players at previous stops. Caldwell knows he needs to get bang for his buck with this crop, and show his rebuilding project is starting to bear fruit.

Jaguars' moves

Re-signings

Arrivals

Departures

DE Tyson Alualu

TE Julius Thomas

WR Cecil Shorts

DT Jared Odrick

OLB J.T. Thomas

T Jermey Parnell

DT Red Bryant

RB Bernard Pierce

S Sergio Brown

What's next?

»Do something with Marcedes Lewis: If they can't find a taker in the draft, perhaps Lewis will take a pay cut to reduce his $8.2 million cap.

» Work on Bortles' bad habits: Last year's No. 3 overall pick did a lot of things right despite his ugly numbers last year. But his mechanics and decision-making still need a lot of work in the offseason under new offense coordinator Greg Olson.

4. Tennessee Titans

Why the Titans are last: This is one of the most talent poor rosters in the league. Of the eight players with the highest cap figures on the team, only safety Michael Griffin has made the Pro Bowl. (And his best days are behind him.) That's why it was worth a shot for Tennessee to take a chance on linebacker Brian Orakpo, who has upper shelf talent if he can stay healthy. Bringing back underrated pass rusher Derrick Morgan at a reasonable rate was a win and gives the team a chance to build an identity with a deep pass rush.

Safety Da'Norris Searcy and cornerback Perrish Cox are also young players coming off quietly impressive seasons. These are the type of no-nonsense moves that winning teams make to build up their middle class. Now they just need to find stars.

»Sprinkle Dick LeBeau's magic dust: The Titans don't have an awful defensive roster; they just lack a cohesive guiding principle to the entire team. Perhaps the addition of LeBeau with old friend Ray Horton will create something more memorable from this vanilla squad.