A blog about weather, climate, and science. Occasionally, we'll post on other topics of interest.

Wednesday, February 29, 2012

Destructive Tornado and Severe Weather Event Possible

This is the probabilistic tornado and severe thunderstorm (latter defined as hail ≥ 1" in diameter and/or winds ≥ 58 mph) outlook valid from 6am Friday until 6am Saturday as forecast by the National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center.

Two things ratchet up my concern when tornadoes and severe storms are contemplated:

Overnight

Out of Season

While very early March is technically "in season," a number of these areas haven't had any severe weather in 2012. Plus, the dynamics (jet stream strength, etc.) of this event may keep it going during the overnight hours with fast-moving (potentially less "lead time") storms.

Breaking it down: the hatched area (in this case) means tornadoes ≥F-2 intensity and/or thunderstorm-generated winds ≥ 75 mph. This far (more than 24 hours) out, those are very high probabilities (45%), as well.

So, if you live in these areas, I urge you to make sure you to conduct the following reviews:

6 comments:

Looks like we're right in the bullseye for tomorrow in Louisville Metro LMK - (SDF). Lucked out with the February 29 storms as they weakened coming through Jefferson County, KY; We ended up with a severe t-storm warning in Jefferson County, KY, but weather here never really hit warning criteria - so we really lucked out.

Harrison County, IN, just to the west was a Tornado Warning (Doppler indicated) and counties just south were Tornado Warnings - but storms intensified after moving through Louisville Metro (Jefferson County, KY) as they went east and south.

Thank you so much for your updates! I've just finished checking out our storm shelter to make sure there were no crickets or spiders to share it with should we have to go there tonight or tomorrow. Praying the weather won't get as bad as some are predicting! God bless you!

That map scares me! I live in Alabama close to where the tragic April 27th twisters hit last year. Hope this is not a repeat. I am already apprehensive. Our family will definitely keep a close watch on the weather tomorrow!