Rahul's speech came too late to win polls; he has to look beyond 2014

It can be argued that the Congress is being punished for the sins of omission and commission of the Manmohan Singh govt.

Rahul Gandhi will not be the first member of the Nehru-Gandhi family to lead the Congress to defeat in the general elections. His grandmother lost in 1977, his father lost in 1989, his mother lost in 1999. But he will be the first to lead his party out of power and into opposition in the very first election fought under him. This is a cross he will have to bear.

Some Cabinet ministers privately admit defeat for the Congress in the 2014 elections is inevitable. It can be argued that the Congress is being punished for the sins of omission and commission of the Manmohan Singh government. A deadly combination of corruption scandals, policy paralysis, inter-ministerial wrangles, rising prices and slow economic growth has made the UPA virtually unelectable.

Rahul was not a part of this government and, therefore, should not be blamed for its disastrous performance. Unfortunately, Rahul cannot absolve himself of all blame. As heir apparent for almost a decade, he should have stepped in to check the implosion of the UPA government. As the vice-president of the Congress for about a year, he should have taken measures to restore the morale of confused party workers. As Congress' chief campaigner, he is culpable for the string of electoral reverses suffered by the party in state elections. By undermining the authority of the Prime Minister and the Cabinet on the Ordinance issue, he weakened his own government.

By attempting to position himself as the outsider, while being the consummate insider, he merely ended up confusing most people. Indeed, over the years, Rahul has been a puzzle for many party men. Most Congressmen, irrespective of their capabilities, would never decline an opportunity to exercise power or assume leadership. Rahul's reluctance to do so for a long time baffled them. It also made some of the more ambitious leaders harbour aspirations for the top job, giving rise to several conspiracy theories, further muddying the waters for the government and the party.

Rich Rumour Mills

His elevation last year as vice-president of the Congress should have put paid to most of these ambitions and rumours. But such is the secrecy surrounding the top echelons of the Congress that speculation about the high command choosing a prime ministerial candidate other than Rahul continued till almost the end of last year. And when this speculation finally ended, it was replaced by another raft of rumours: Rahul to be appointed as prime minister for the last few months of the UPA tenure; Rahul to be appointed working president of the Congress; Rahul to be the Congress' official PM candidate, etc. Finally, Sonia Gandhi took the sensible decision.

On Thursday, she declared that Rahul will lead the party in the elections, but stopped short of naming him as the prime ministerial candidate, taking refuge in the fictitious convention invented in the last two decades about the Congress going to the polls without a PM candidate (no such convention existed during Indira Gandhi's and Rajiv Gandhi's eras). With the leadership issue settled, Rahul's speech at the AICC meeting on Friday was to sound the bugle for the campaign of 2014. It was targeted at the Congress worker and meant to rally the base, rouse the troops and dispel the notion that he was a reluctant leader. In that he succeeded.

Rahul came across as energetic, confident and combative. There was no defensiveness. He spoke proudly about the government's achievements. He harked back to the Congress' secular traditions, about women's empowerment, democratising the party, and meeting the aspirations of the 70 crore people who live above the poverty line but were not part of the middle class. The message was clear: the Congress should not give up hope in 2014.

Aim for the Next Goalpost

Valiant as the attempt was, the speech is unlikely to change the situation on the ground. There is just too much public disaffection for things to turn around. But if in the next few months, Rahul can demonstrate his capacity to run an effective campaign and emerge as a leader in his own right, he will win the confidence of his party and position himself for the long term.

His first challenge is to ensure that the Congress tally does not fall below the 114 seats it got in 1999, and which has been its worst electoral performance till date. It can then be argued that the Congress under Rahul has fared better than what it did it in its first election under Sonia Gandhi.

Bin the Baggage

But Rahul has to set his sights beyond 2014. He has to resist the temptation of thinking that he will be able to restore the Congress to its old glory. The days when the Congress could accommodate the aspirations and interests of all people are over. It has to craft intelligent alliances with regional parties. At the same time, he has to reinvent the party to meet the economic and social aspirations of a rapidly changing India. He is not yet 44 and has time on his hand.

Much is said and written about the average Congressman's sycophancy. But this sycophancy is based on an unwritten contract with the Nehru-Gandhi family, 'I will support you, but you must demonstrate the ability to win elections for me.' 2014 will show us the state of the contract.