2010 Intelligent Transportation Systems Review

REPORT HIGHLIGHTS

In a report published in 2010-10-15, BCC Research forecasts strong growth for the intelligent transportation systems (ITS) device market. The worldwide market is valued at $24 billion in 2010, and is expected to increase at a 22.2% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) during the forecast period to reach a value of $65 billion in 2015.

The Asia-Pacific (APAC) region, endowed with a favorable manufacturing climate and above-average innovation skills, will consolidate its position as the powerhouse of the ITS market. This region is valued at nearly $9.5 billion in 2010, and is expected to increase at a 24% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) to reach nearly $28 billion in 2015.

The fastest-growing ITS market will be the Caribbean and Latin America (CALA) region because of the gap that exists between the latent demand and supply. This region is valued at nearly $2.3 billion in 2010 and is expected to reach $7.3 billion in 2015, a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 26.4%.

REPORT SCOPE

INTRODUCTION

There are two sides to “Intelligent Highways.” There are those who believe the phrase is an oxymoron and those who believe that intelligent technological improvements in highway design, tolling, infrastructure, and low emission vehicles are the only way to improve urban area pollution and congestion. Safety remains important, be it for automobiles, trains, planes, buses, trucks or watercraft. Leading the list is how global positioning systems (GPS) play into the mix. A newer development is how texting on smarphones or even talking on a basic mobile telephone influences behavior while driving.

Further complicating or polarizing the view points is the economy of not only the United States and Europe but the rest of the world. How much safety, convenience, telematics, automotive improvements can the world really afford? Do the red light cameras help or hinder law enforcement? Are electronic signs a help or a distraction? Good data collection is encouraged by the practice of funding infrastructure through special taxes in the form of vehicle registration fees and fuel taxes. Of the many tools used to assess the transportation system, economists have found the measure of capital stock to be among the most useful for determining the capacity of a transportation system.

The bi-monthly newsletters Intelligent Transportation Systems and The Intelligent Highway—Global World Transportaddress the need for timely information about the rapid advances in intelligent vehicles, traveler information, traffic management, advanced transit, safety, navigation, and commercial vehicle operations. Other hot button issues include tolling, congestion fees, government involvement, optimization, safety and infrastructure. How advanced vehicles such as hybrids, plug-in hybrids, and electric vehicles fit into this scenario is another complex issue. This Review is a compilation of news and other articles published in 2010 in these 2 bi-monthly newsletters devoted to covering global markets for ITS technology.

VEHICLES AND THE INTELLIGENT HIGHWAY

At this time, there is little that a vehicle manufacturer can do to make a driver more “intelligent.” Certainly information can play into how technological changes or significant dangers can be removed within this sector. The United States Department of Transportation’s Federal Highway Administration as well as the National Automobile Dealers Association publishes information in regard to the total number of vehicles in the U.S., growth trends, and ratios between licensed drivers, the general population, and the increasing number of vehicles on American roads. Overall passenger vehicles have been outnumbering licensed drivers since 1972 at an ever increasing rate, while light trucks and vehicles manufactured by foreign name brand manufacturers have gained a larger share of the automotive market in the United States.

According to the United States Department of Transportation, the average motor vehicle, including light trucks, in the U.S. had a fuel economy rating of 17.1 miles per gallon or 13.8 liters per 100 kilometers. The last 2 decades have seen the slowest increase in fuel economy since 1960, with fuel economy improving from 16.4 miles a gallon in 1990 to 17.1 miles a gallon today. The impetus to improve miles per gallon seems to occur when gasoline costs break through the $3.00/gallon barrier. This is in contrast to the 1980s when the average fuel economy improved somewhat more significantly from 13.3 miles a gallon in 1980 to 16.4 miles a gallon in 1990. The sluggish increase in fuel economy during the 1990s was largely due to the rising popularity of sport utility vehicles (SUV), whose status as light trucks gained them exception from the fuel economy restrictions placed on sedans and other cars. Even as gasoline prices increased though many drivers did not perform the simple tasks needed to ensure lower carbon footprints and greater miles per gallon (MPG); such actions as tune ups and driving at slower speeds on the highways and interstates.

The Hummer H2 has an estimated fuel economy of 9 miles per gallon. A Toyota Prius, the most popular hybrid, has an EPA fuel economy of 48 MPG in the city and about 45 MPG on the highway. If you can find regular fuel without ethanol as an additive, the Prius will regularly deliver 50 MPG with ultra low emissions.

RESEARCH AND INNOVATIVE TECHNOLOGY ADMINISTRATION BUREAU OF TRANSPORTATION STATISTICS

According to the U.S. Department of Transportation’s Bureau of Transportation Statistics’ (BTS) (Table 1) more than 97 million personal vehicles entered the United States in 2009: 26.7 million from Canada, and 70.3 million from Mexico. Additionally, 9.3 million trucks, 344,809 buses, and 31,509 trains entered the U.S. in 2009. These are the latest data available from the U.S. government.

TABLE 1

VEHICLES ENTERING THE U.S., 2009

Type

From Canada

From Mexico

Personal vehicle

26,698,239

70,0304,756

Truck crossings

5,020,633

4,291465

Bus crossings

116,356

228,454

Train

24,034

7,475

Explanations:

Truck crossings are the number of arriving trucks; do not include privately owned pickup trucks.

Rail data for U.S.-Mexico border are for rail (loaded and unloaded) containers.

Rail data for U.S.-Canada numbers are for number of trains not containers. Privately owned vehicle crossings is the number of privately owned vehicles (POVs) arriving at a particular port. Includes pickup trucks motorcycles recreational vehicles taxis snowmobiles ambulances hearses and other motorized private ground vehicles.

Bus crossings: Number of arriving buses at a particular port whether or not they are carrying passengers.

Source: North American Transportation Statistics Online Database available at nats.sct.gob.mx/nats November 18 2010.

Despite a down economy airline traffic increased 1.8% in 2010 as compared to 2009-08-15. The 2010-08-15 passenger total was 2.4% below that of 2 years ago in 2008-08-15. The available seat-miles for 2010 were 652.7 billion. This represents a 0% change from 2009.

The rules of road may vary from country to country. In Europe, the road is likely to have more than just passenger cars or trucks. There may be bicycles, powered scooters, motorcycles, pedestrians, cows or sheep. In Nigeria an obstacle may be a herded flock of ducks. In New Zealand, the obstacle most often is a herd of sheep. In Indonesia, take your chances.

OTHER ASPECTS OF INTELLIGENT TRANSPORTATION

As dense population centers increase so do congestion, frustration by drivers, pollution and a failing infrastructure. There is no single answer to these problems, and there are no components that are not interrelated. If countries had the money to fix their entire infrastructure, would that heal all their transport problems? Probably not, but it would be a positive start. In the end, the people are the ones to pay by taxes or by tolls or by some congestion pricing scheme to enter a city center. Stopping pollution and emissions from cars and trucks is another issue that needs constant attention.

Much of 2010 transportation has focused on safety measures and on tolling. Saving lives is definitely a worthy venture. Some of the measures are just common sense and others cost money or time. Texting while driving would seem an intuitive activity not to pursue while behind the wheel. Sensors have their place in many parts of a vehicle as well as on bridges and roadways. Sensors are used to set off car alarms, report accidents or alert engineers to the potential of structural failure of a bridge. Wireless sensors are increasingly used to monitor bridge safety. Red light cameras are unpopular yet the cameras serve the purposes of raising money from those who break the law, and saving the lives and/or vehicles of both the victim and the culprit.

The economy continues to impact much of the intelligent transportation sector. The once touted system of high speed rail that would take some strain off of the highway systems in the U.S. has been more or less “put on hold.” Shovel ready or not the high speed trains have run into the “not enough money right now” wall. Much of the proposed rail system may be built later. Public transportation may also be greatly expanded but just not right now.

INSTRUMENTATION, SENSORS AND MATERIALS

There is little doubt that vehicle drivers want their vehicles, passengers and themselves to be safe. Differences of opinion occur about whether this is the responsibility of the vehicle manufacturer, the state or federal government, law enforcement, road and traffic engineers or the drivers themselves. Safety could be the responsibility and the goal of all of the above. If sensors on an automobile can tell you when your tire pressure is low or that the oil needs changing, then the possibility of intelligent sensors on a bridge seems equally realistic. Bridge and highway sensors that alert engineers to structural defects and dangers before disasters happen may be a first step toward improving highway transportation and making them much more “intelligent.”

In a report published in 2010-10-15, BCC Research forecasts strong growth for the intelligent transportation systems (ITS) device market. The worldwide market is valued at $24 billion in 2010, and is expected to increase at a 22.2% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) during the forecast period to reach a value of $65 billion in 2015.

The Asia-Pacific (APAC) region, endowed with a favorable manufacturing climate and above-average innovation skills, will consolidate its position as the powerhouse of the ITS market. This region is valued at nearly $9.5 billion in 2010, and is expected to increase at a 24% CAGR to reach nearly $28 billion in 2015. The fastest-growing market will be the Caribbean and Latin America (CALA) region because of the gap that exists between the latent demand and supply. This region is valued at nearly $2.3 billion in 2010 and is expected to reach $7.3 billion in 2015, a CAGR of 26.4%.

Another report highlights the importance of lightweight and improved materials in transportation equipment. The total global consumption of lightweight materials used in transportation equipment was 42.8 million tons/$80.5 billion in 2006 and will increase to 68.5 million tons/$106.4 billion by 2011, a CAGR of 9.9% in tonnage terms and 5.7% in value terms.

High strength steel accounts for the largest percentage of total tons of lightweight materials consumed, followed by aluminum and plastics. In value terms, plastics with their relatively high unit prices are the largest market segment. Aluminum and high strength steel are the second and third largest product segments. Motor vehicles, particularly passenger cars and light trucks, are by far the largest end-user segment. Shipbuilding was the second largest consumer of lightweight materials, while the aircraft industry ranks second in the value of the lightweight materials consumed.

TELEMATICS

The BCC report Telematic Components: Technologies and Global Markets was published in April of 2010. This study predicts that in 2010, the total global market value of telematics components will increase to $12.9 billion. In 2011, global net market value will increase to $15.6 billion. Given a compound annual growth rate of nearly 21%, net market value will increase to $40.3 billion by 2016.

The hardware and services segments will each grow at a 31.7% CAGR. Services have a greater market value, worth an estimated $5 billion in 2011 and nearly $20 billion in 2016. Beginning in 2010, government mandates in Europe and Brazil will begin to drive the hardware market, as regulators will require that vehicles be equipped to contact emergency services in the event of an incident. This sector will be worth $2.6 billion in 2011 and is expected to reach $10.3 billion by 2016.

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