Terrorists could launch a cyber attack within three years, report warns

The government claims terrorists could be capable of launching a cyber attack on Australia "to destructive effect" within three years even though the threat of their capability is currently ranked as "low".

The advice is contained in a new report by the Australian Cyber Security Centre (ACSC) to be released on Wednesday.

While Australia has never been the victim of a cyber attack, authorities have investigated 1095 cyber security incidents investigated over the past 18 months. These have been the work of hacktivists, cyber criminals and foreign state actors.

Writing in News Corp, the Minister Assisting the Prime Minister for Cyber Security Dan Tehan claimed terrorists would be soon capable of targeting Australia over the internet.

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"The threat of a cyber attack from terrorists presently is ranked as low," he said.

"Islamic State is using social media for propaganda and recruitment but its skills to launch a genuine cyber attack are rudimentary."

"That won't always be the case and the ACSC estimates that within three years terrorists will have the ability to compromise a secure network with destructive effect."

The minister said that the national computer emergency response team (CERT Australia) had dealt with 14,804 cyber security incidents affecting Australian businesses in the last financial year.

He said 418 of those involved "systems of national interest and critical infrastructure."

While Islamic State has expressed a desire to venture into cyber attacks their ability to do so is considered remote and have been more successful in recruiting potential fighters online.

Alex Kassirer, a Flashpoint terrorism analyst, which monitors extremists' chatter on the dark web agreed that it was "laughable" to think Islamic State, which is in retreat in Iraq and Syria, could launch a cyber attack.

"They're incredibly unsophisticated in their cyber abilities," she said.

But she said the government warnings should be believed because terrorist groups are repeatedly expressing a desire to venture into cyber attacks.

"On this forum there was a recent conversation that discussed 'launching a hacking' and that just shows an interest and an aspiration amongst the group's supporters to learn how to hack and have some sort of cyber capability, so its definitely something they're trying to cultivate," she told Fairfax Media.

"I think it's inevitable that they're going to try their hand at it because they see it can be successful," she said.

She said she was hesitant to put a timeframe on it on how soon that might be.

"But I don't think [three years] seems incredibly overblown, especially given the fact they're talking about it on their forums, it's definitely seems like something on their radar at the very least."

But she said the more immediate threat of a cyber attack was from sophisticated foreign state actors and their success would inspire terrorist groups to innovate.

"I think the real danger of a terrorist group developing cyber ability is that they have no restraints…unlike state actors who have to operate in the international community."