Former Chair of the Gwinnett County Republican Party, State Representative for Georgia House District 102 (Lawrenceville).

April 22, 2010

Butler Leads Everson In New Poll

Received via email.

A new InsiderAdvantage/RosettaStone poll conducted on 4/11/2010 of 410 likely Republican Primary voters shows State Representative Mark Butler leading State Representative Melvin Everson by a 2 to 1 margin, although 67% of the Republican Primary voters currently are undecided.

Representative Butler of Carroll County serves on the appropriations committee of the House of Representatives. Representative Melvin Everson, from Gwinnett County was appointed by Speaker of the House Glenn Richardson to serve on the States Child Fatality Review Panel.

37 comments

Melvin has been a good friend for many years and exactly what we need to clean up the Labor Commissioner’s office. Georgia needs jobs, and Melvin provides the leadership, vision, and hard work ethic needed to do just that. He will do more than run unemployment offices, he will proactively work with Economic Development to create more jobs here and maintain the ones we have. Melvin, you have my vote!!

This is a cute little poll. At this point most of the electorate isn’t paying attention, and whoever has the more “Republican sounding” name will be ahead. Melvin is not a traditional candidate, and while that may not help with a poll three months out, it will certainly be a help on Election Day.

A poll for this race, at this time, means very little. Given the amount of campaigning Everson has done in GOP circles across the state, in June he will have a HUGE edge. Also wonder what $$$ the candidates have. That carries more weight.

Haven’t been following that race and had no clue who was in other than Melvin. After looking at the list of legislators supporting Everson, it would be nearly impossible to overcome that type of support.

It’s actually fairly easy. Unless the legislator commits to really helping, those endorsements are minimal on the outcome of the race. By looking at Melvin’s disclosure, I’d say most of those legislators don’t have a high level of commitment to the outcome of his race.

Just look at the Black / Kemp race for Ag Commissioner, and the effect that all of Brian’s legislative endorsements had on the race.

Read what Carrollton voters wrote into their Carrollton Times-Georgian newspaper this morning about Butler’s hometown candidacy for Labor Commissioner. Hometown folks seem to know more about a candidate than others……

I think you guys are overanalyzing it. Since the overwhelming majority of GOP voters have no idea who Mark Butler or Melvin Everson are, it probably comes down to a preference for the name “Mark” over “Melvin”. The problem for Melvin, is that although he’s raised some money, he’s spent it without much apparent return. So unless one of the candidates raises some money, it will probably come down to a “Mark” or “Melvin” name preference. Perhaps Melvin should qualify as “Mel.”

A friend who is a resident of Carrollton told me today that Mark Butler will not carry Carroll County. All due to his sleazy style of politicking and abuse of his official position concerning his girl friend Erin Henderson, (also Burkhalter’s ex-girl ) who was the lobbyist for West Georgia University. Mark Butler really showed his ass on that one.

This poll only has 410 respondees. Thats a M.O.E. of about 5%, which means +/- 5% for both candidates, to just be 95% confident in the results. (5% chance the poll is an outlier with an even bigger M.O.E.)

With only a single poll to judge by, this could mean they are really tied, or perhaps Butler is running away with a 20 point lead.

I wish Buzz had used the headline “No one knows who the hell the two guys are who are running for labor commissioner”

And it will stay that way for a long time, and sadly in the eyes of many voters, through election day and beyond.

Face it, this is a way down ballot race. Most like Everson, but with it a tough fundraising year, him having no Republican opposition, and the priority of this race, there was no sense of urgency to give here.

And even with the opportunist Butler moving in, there still won’t be much of an effort to donate here.

This primary will be all about earned media.

Everson’s will be very positive.

Butler’s will be about him dating lobbyists. And it will keep the fact that Republicans just did nothing that would have changed the “Glenn Richardson problem” of a lobbyist sleeping with a legislator for her client’s benefit in the minds of the voters until at least the primary, and possibly until Novemeber.

In a bizzaro sort of way, Butler could follow the Oxonion strategy of getting lots of earned media, regardless of negative content, hoping the voters remember the name and forget the crime.

I like Everson over Butler, but don’t make too many excuses for Melvin. Yes, it’s a down ballot race, in a down economy, with no opposition up to this point, but let’s be honest, Melvin sucks at fundraising. You and I both know he hasn’t been locking himself in a room and making the calls – much more fun to give great speeches to the same 100 activists over and over again.

Melvin is going to have to step it up a little, or otherwise the voters will be making their choices based on the appeal of their names. Makes me want to qualify for the race under the name “Kick Ass.”

If you mean that Everson needs to call regular Republican activists for cash, then OK. If you mean he needs to go to special interests’ lobbyists and sell out in order to raise the funds…he won’t do that.

First of all there isn’t a whole lot of special interest money available for Labor Commission. Just look at past disclosure reports of challengers and incumbents. The Labor Dept. just doesn’t have that big of a direct regulatory effect on business; therefore the Commissioner doesn’t have the shake-down opportunities that Oxendine has available.

Second, calling special interest groups for money is easy, they might say no, but it’s an easy call to make. When I say he sucks at fundraising and needs to lock himself in a room to make the necessary calls, I’m talking about bothering individuals at home and at work and begging for money. That is not an easy call to make, it’s illegal to do on the streets of Atlanta, but an important aspect of fundraising.

Third, Melvin doesn’t need to rely exclusively on GOP activists for money. With all the statewide elections, that well is about dried up. He needs to start calling neighbors, members of his church, people he works with, parents of his kids’ friends, etc..; which again is not fun.

He has to quit giving the same speech to the same 100 activists and start to doing the crap work of campaigning – making those awful fundraising calls.

Haven’t commented in a while, but fear not: I have been reading along. 🙂

However, I wanted to add that I’m supporting Melvin Everson. I’ve met him, and he’s an intelligent man who got into the race for good reasons. I think he’d be a great Labor Commissioner, and I hope those of you who are undecided will really look into the candidates for this race (though it appears most who have commented here already have). I’m completely confident that when you do, you’ll come away supporting Melvin, too.

Before this was a contested race, there was no great need to do mega fundraising. When the session began, by law, fundraising had to be suspended.

And to set the record straight on “the same old 100 GOP activists” I say bull! Melvin has been all over the state of Georgia, north to south, speaking to people who have never met him. And they liked what they saw and heard. How many standing ovations have you ever heard of for a down ballot Labor Commissioner? Melvin gets them everywhere he goes.

Melvin has been doing the hard work of meeting and greeting and getting his name out there….a huge advantage over Butler. And trust me, when Melvin puts his hand out after the session, he will have to have a truck to carry the checks to the bank.