On War & Stuff

Afghanistan: Good Things Will Come Out of This War

Since I started covering Afghanistan 20 years ago, I have rarely felt as pessimistic as I do now. I have seen friends and acquaintances perish in the neverending war, and now it seems this black hole of a country is sucking in the rest of us. Sure, it is a black hole of our own making, but that only adds the burden of collective guilt on top of everything else.

Lately, though, I’ve found myself entertaining surprisingly positive thoughts. The war might be going to hell, but regardless of how it ends, some good things will come out of it. Among them:

The Europeans’ newly-found resolve to fight a war. We’re all pacifists on this side of the pond, but sometimes war is necessary, and when that happens, there is no time to dilly-dally. The Germans and the French, and slowly the Scandinavians, too, are coming around to accept this inevitability. So while the fighting near Kunduz certainly isn’t good, the fact that there is fighting is excellent news. And while I’m the last to advocate the “Follow Every Single Taliban and Kill Him” style of counterinsurgency, there’s something to be said for violently defending what you were sent in to defend.

The bursting of the COIN bubble. Ironically, the more difficult the fight in Afghanistan becomes, the more Iraq will seem like a fluke. This is good. American analysts and the U.S. military have already wasted valuable months trying to transplant whatever they think made the Surge a success into unfertile soil that will not support this alien life-form. As long as headlines like “Marines Find Afghan Insurgents Bolder Than Iraqi Insurgents” keep popping up, we know there will be no progress. Armies always fight the previous war, and often they still manage to win, but sometimes there is very little time to snap out of the stupor, and that time has passed in Afghanistan. So if getting our asses kicked will teach us to never again rely on just one strategy du jour and instead treat every conflict as unique and every tactical innovation as essentially non-replicable, so much for the better.

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8 Responses

I didn’t think I was being super-critical or anything, but I guess it looks a bit like that when reading back.

Let me just say that doing interviews is hard, being recorded is hard, and being on camera is even harder, so any criticisms about delivery or presence or any of that stuff is pure BS on my part.

I think maybe the so-called “strategy” that Ex discussed might’ve been more satisfying to people who aren’t particularly fluent in the subject, seeing as the whole “protect civilians” thing might’ve seemed more novel and substantial to them.

I don’t know Astan, only what I read (which is usually pretty grim). But to give Exum his due – until CNAS came along – and of course Petreaus, new political leadership, new CINC etc….”The Pope” it appears to me that our policy was drift and inertia. Yes, COIN has become a cult. But at least CNAS called it like they saw it and provided some kind of coherent plan for the next 12 months.

Remember – the paper was called “Triage”. That kind of implies things are dire, and is rather a different shading altogether than say “Recovery”, “Sustainment”, or “It’s morning in Afghanistan”.

Let’s give them their 12 months they asked for…for Triage.

If you’ve ever come across my other avatar (elf) you know well what I think plan B should be…but the people who’ve invested their skins in this theater deserve their shot to do it the way they think is right.

Quite fascinating how quick the popular consensus has turned with regards to the pop-centric approach to warfare. (Im getting tired of the broad term COIN, since it is too general.) From what I hear from Kabul there is finally some energy in the process, several new initiatives are being launched right now designed for a 6-12 months time and re-assessment in August, there is finally inter-Nato communication and inclusion of captain level ANA, there is real agricultural efforts being mounted and there is a attempt at regaining the momentum. Contrary to what you write, Jari, to me it seems that Afgan is finally being treated as a unique location, efforts are being made to understand and map local differences and cultures, real effort is being made at halting the worst of the corruption etc. And its just kicking off, no way to know wether it will “succeed” or not. Hell, there is even rumour of an acceptable endstate being formulated! And a functional commandstructure! After 8 years!

And all the blogs seem to moan about gloom and doom and how CNAS are McChrystals whores, building careers on the blood of soldiers (if not openly spoken, then implied) etc. Since Im not in the loop, I can say this out loud: I suspect a lot of the grumblers and whiners and doomsayers are servicemen who feel threatened by the new generation. Because if it should succeed, what exactly does that say about the folks who have occupied the place the last 7 years and never gotten their heads out of their arses. I dont know how it will turn out, the enemy gets a vote etc. But I think we are finally dong it right, except that it should have been done 7 years ago. And it seems like that buns. Calling folks cultists is an old dominance-pattern. Folks who use dominance patterns usually have bad arguments and/or bruised egos. Just saying.

I don’t have an axe to grind, other than that of an old hack who has witnessed some shitty things in Afghanistan up close over the past 20 years but hasn’t given up hope that these poor guys will see peace one day.

And frankly, I don’t give a rat’s ass what the rest of the world gets out of it.

Jari: Wich about is the exact same as my position. Wich is why I think pop-centric coin is the greatest evolution inside NATO in a while. If we had done it seriously from the start, we would be a whole different place now.

“If we had done it seriously from the start, we would be a whole different place now.”

Would we really? Let’s remember first principles – why we got in, why we left in 89…Hell why the Soviets intervened?

Maybe I just can’t get over certain crimes (9/11, heroin).

I don’t think they can be saved, but that’s not why we are there….and I don’t think our negotiations with the Taliban will lead to anything but the same thing the Joos got for bringing Arafat back from Tunis.

COIN is what you tell your Mom and sister BTW. To mask the ugly truth.