Navigation

The ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) – Third quarter of 2018

The results of the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) for the third quarter of 2018 show average inflation expectations of 1.7% for each of 2018, 2019 and 2020.[1] Compared with the previous survey, this represents upward revisions to 2018 and 2019, attributable to oil price developments. Average longer-term inflation expectations (which refer to 2023) remained stable at 1.9%. Expectations for real GDP growth were revised down a little in the near term to stand at 2.2%, 1.9% and 1.6% for 2018, 2019 and 2020, respectively. Expectations for real GDP growth in the longer term remained at 1.6%. Unemployment rate expectations were ... (full story)

Economists -! The Queen embarrassed the so called "professionals," at one of their dinners, by asking them why they had missed the gathering storm of recession. They were falling over themselves for days in an effort to patch together some excuse or other. Economists + Forecasting = guesswork.

I understand that this is a forum for amateurs to interact on retail fx trading.
Its a great site for exchange of systematic strategies tech trading..
But for primarily fundamental traders.? IMHO a disappointment.

Of course trading Tech v Fundamental is not a binary choice, and like most of even the most sophisticated AI algos even at industry level require a level of fundamental input so do amateur systems/strategies need to recognize the market changing nature of some fundamental analysis.

Inevitably amateurs in any activity have nothing like the academic , professional or experiential background in their chosen subject that professionals and industry players have. Amateur technical traders can and sometimes do through cooperation develop adapt master and find algo and semi discretionary technical strategies that with good MM deliver Alpha returns. We also know that the skill set required to be a successful amateur tech trader is Primarily quant, and familiarity with mathematical statistical and computational skills and now AI are the key talents most such traders bring to the market, and FF has hosted a couple of talented voices over the years. However the Achilles Heal of Tech is that market patterns are constantly evolving . And so everything works till it doesn't. Long term success and survival depends on spotting these pattern changes, whether caused by industry technology, regulatory changes or evolving economically driven sentiment changing market dynamics.

Fundamental traders typically use a very different set of Primary skills, typically trade longer TFs & less levered positions. Of course technical basics play a part, but the Primary skill set must include a high levels of understanding of economics and the economic system, detailed knowledge of the operation and roles of key institutions in shaping that system and institutions, and nonpartisan political awareness of the internal and external drivers of national economies. Access to pertinent News at primary source level, skilled nonpartisan informed analysis as distinct from tweet-bait and popular media click-bait and spin, are the daily lifeblood of success for the Fundamental trader.

Which brings me as a mere visitor, to the question..
How does 90% of the stuff in these threads get published?
Why has FF no non partisan educational resource to help traders coming to the market, without such skills, to up their game... and why is there no Fact-Checking facility (in a world plagued with fake news) provided, for news and opinion on the veracity of which Members and Visitors may in good faith base real money trades.
Postcard from the Edge.

I understand that this is a forum for amateurs to interact on retail fx trading. Its a great site for exchange of systematic strategies tech trading.. But for primarily fundamental traders.? IMHO a disappointment. Of course trading Tech v Fundamental is not a binary choice, and like most of even the most sophisticated AI algos even at industry level require a level of fundamental input so do amateur systems/strategies need to recognize the market changing nature of some fundamental analysis. Inevitably amateurs in any activity have nothing like...