Stay or go? Monta Ellis’ leverage is tied to his opt-out after next season

Monta Ellis has been with the Warriors a long time and at this point he is probably thinking that it has been too long.

Too many losses. Too many times going out there with a hope, a prayer and an unbalanced roster with players protected by politics and acquired for PR purposes.

In fact, multiple sources indicated to me today that Ellis is increasingly frustrated that the Warriors haven’t fulfilled promises to build a contending roster,

By all accounts, Ellis wants to start new somewhere else. And by most accounts, the Warriors’ roster would be better balanced if they find a smart way to move him somewhere else.

But can they?

Two sources told me that Ellis’ camp has had recent conversations with the Warriors front office about the possibility that it is time for Ellis to move on.
(Multiple league sources say that Dorell Wright and Andris Biedrins also have told the Warriors they wouldn’t object to being traded.

(Interestingly, one source indicates that the Warriors turned down a trade that would’ve sent Ellis, Wright and Biedrins away in the three-team trade with New Orleans and Orlando that was reported yesterday.

(It wasn’t at all a good-value trade for the Warriors–looks like they would’ve gotten Chris Kaman and maybe Hedo Turkoglu, ugh–and Joe Lacob isn’t moving Ellis unless it’s for value. And he isn’t moving Ellis to Orlando unless he gets Dwight Howard back.

(But that turn-down might have upped the Ellis Frustration Level to a record high, just a guess.)

None of this, of course, means that Lacob has to trade Ellis by Thursday’s deadline or at any time.

In fact, every indication is that Lacob only would trade Ellis if the Warriors received a star in return. That doesn’t look exceedingly likely by Thursday.

So…
Ellis isn’t one to go public with his thoughts on the matter–he’s felt this frustrated several times in the last two or three years, but never issued a trade demand (that I know of) or pressed the issue to a reporter.

However… today Ellis detailed his thoughts to Marcus Thompson II after the Warriors’ shoot-around in Sacramento. It’s about as clear as Ellis has ever gotten on the big picture.
Ellis mused about winning a championship if he was traded to Orlando or Chicago and conceded that the Warriors have probably “had a bit of a slippage this year”–which is a huge deal, because talk like that is usually verboten in PR-conscious GSW Land.

But most pointedly of all, when Marcus brought up that Ellis still has two years left on his contract after this season, Ellis quickly noted that no, he only actually has one year.

That’s because Ellis has a player-option after next season–it’s all at a flat $11M per–which means Ellis can either play the final year or make himself a free-agent in the summer of 2013.

And while I would’ve previously believed that Ellis wouldn’t walk away from $11M guaranteed, one source familiar with his thinking told me today that Ellis would almost certainly opt-out and become a free agent in ’13.

Once he’s a free agent, there will be teams willing to offer him some heavy money, so he could walk from the Warriors and they’d get nothing in return.

Folks, that’s Ellis’ hammer.

Again, it doesn’t mean he’s outta here no matter what. Things change, you never know, maybe Ellis will feel better about the Warriors pending a few other decisions in the near-future.

Maybe he’ll even nix his final season, then sign an extension–or sign an extension before then. Stephen Jackson once got a three-year, $27M extension from the Warriors, so you really never know.

But Ellis has some historical leverage (he’s been here through so much), some talent leverage (he’s their only go-to offensive player) and some contractural leverage.

He’s a flawed player, for sure. I’m not sure what he’s really worth in a trade. It’s tough to say.

But in literal terms, this is not unlike the situation Dwight Howard is taking Orlando through now, or that Carmelo Anthony conducted in Denver last year.

Do the Warriors let Ellis get close to walking away for nothing? Do they go nuts trying to put pieces around him that he likes, in order to convince him to stay?

Or do they move him–either now or in the summer–knowing that if they don’t, Ellis is free and clear to leave as a free agent before the 2013-’14 season?

You look at their salary books, with David Lee’s contract sitting there, with Biedrins’ contract there for two more years (he has the same player-option as Ellis, but he REALLY won’t be using it), with Stephen Curry up for an extension this fall…

I don’t know how the Warriors fit a disgruntled Ellis into that long-range picture, especially with the Ellis hammer.

Tim Kawakami

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“Once he’s a free agent, there will be teams willing to offer him some heavy money, so he could walk from the Warriors and they’d get nothing in return.”

How could this possibly be? I mean, if that’s the case, we can’t find one good trading partner on his current contract? That just doesn’t square the circle man.

nickSD

Wish we could trade him for Josh Smith.

jacobslide

EvanZ,

Squaring the circle, has more to do with Lacob wanting way TOO much for Monta. There are deals to be had, but Lacob’s unwillingness to trade Monta to ORL is shortsighted at best. ORL could have facilitated a multi team deal in which the Warriors get the most back in a Monta deal.

Teams want Monta, but they want to pay for what Monta is – not what Lacob dreams about in his dreams with a Minotaur-ed Lee welcoming him to Fantasyland at the end of the rainbow where Monta is a superstar.

i.e. my point was “if we can’t find one good trading partner, what should that tell you about Monta’s true value?”

To think he will get a huge contract when he’s a free agent is – once again – overestimating his value to teams.

Chris Webber

Lacob and his stooges are walking on the same blind path as his predecessor, Cohan.

No clear direction to the future. Just a bunch of band aid fixes to keep the ship afloat (as long as they are making money).

Meanwhile, Warrior fans keep suffering the same fate, year after year. It’s Groundhog day. Over and over again.

Fuzzy Dunlop

Dorell and Andris want to be traded too, huh? Guess what guys? The fans don’t want you our your crap games here either. Good deal?

Seriously though, how do you ask for a trade when you are most directly responsible for the team underachieving this year? It baffles the mind.

WillisReed

Time to trade all these guys. No one on the Warriors should be considered untouchable. I get angry just thinking about the Warriors not trading for Chris Paul because they were afraid to give up Curry.

Clearly, this roster as currently assembled is not a playoff team. Additionally, its almost a given now the Warriors aren’t going to keep their pick. (Stop winning meaningless games….grrrrrrr!)

Blowing up the roster and making some trades is the only option.

Scotty

@Evanz just because the Warriors can’t find someone willing to give Lacob what he wants doesn’t mean teams don’t value Monta. Clearly there are teams willing to take on his contract, but they aren’t willing to give up as much in terms of assets as Lacob wants. The money part isn’t what’s holding things up here, so why wouldn’t you think teams would be willing to offer Monta big money (in this case I mean a contract comparable to the one he has now) in free agency when all they have to worry about is money and not giving up any key players?

EvanZ

@Scotty

“The money part isn’t what’s holding things up here”

How do you know this? “The money part” is what makes Monta overvalued.

willow

I’d guess his next contract would be around 3 years for $28M or 4 years for $35M. Not quite big money but a fitting contract for a sixth man of the year type.

rockridge

Lacob and Riley are freakn morons living in fantasyland. What makes Lacob so insistent that Monta is a “superstar” when this “superstar” HASN’T WON JACK SQUAT IN HIS CAREER and has helped his team make the playoffs JUST ONCE — as a backup???

They pathetically excuse themselves from doing anything to help their roster by spinning the same lame line that “we couldn’t get the right value” — and yet expect other GM’s to give up their proven allstars as if no other GM’s want the “right value” like them… That’s Cohan Era Buffoonary.

Hey Joe Schmo, it’s called a NEGOTIATION… To complete a trade you have to take the other teams needs into consideration — not just yours, or no teams will ever do business with you ever. The notion of “equal trade value” is subjective and is a two-way street.

If every other team is constantly offering you lesser value for your player — THEN BY DEFINITION YOU ARE OVERVALUING HIM!

Make a freakn decision already, one way or the other… The more Joe Schmo sits the fence the more pissed and distracted Monta will get. Then the more desperate they will get to move him, ultimately lowering the value they would get for him in return anyway.

This type of article just deminishes the value of Ellis in a trade. Making it appear as if he doesn’t want to be here which in turn gives trade partners leverage. Not good.

Paul

The decision to go after DeAndre Jordan is going to haunt the Warriors for a long time. Because of it they are stuck with Biendrins for 2 more years, which costs them 9 million in space next year which would have helped them get possibly get a difference making center next year and then possibly keep Monta. At the time, all the talk was that the Clippers were going to match any offer for Jordan which they did. And the W’s in all their wisdom burned the Amnesty on Charlie Bell for $4 mill vs Beans for $27 mill. And don’t forget that that one transaction also cost them Reggie Williams and Lin….Not that those guys would really make a huge difference here….

gp_joe

In Orlando, Dwight is worth as much in trade value to the Magic as he is other teams.

Unfortunately for the Warriors, they have zero leverage. Monta is worth more to the Warrior’s as a scorer, go to guy, veteran, and of course entertainment than to other teams.

All this equals two less than ideal options:

1) let him walk for nothing
2) trade him away for way less than equal value.

Oh well, who cares…

Dub’s fan (then and now)

Andrew Bogut = Andris Biedrins the Sequel
Stephen Jackson = Stephen Jackson “older and slower and still self absorbed on my to retirement re-tread”
The same old warriors, stupid trade…where was Jerry on this decision!! They just took 2 steps backwards!

Looks like a good trade to me. I hope they do tank, but in andy case there is more hope for next year. Thompson and Rush are an upgrade on defense and are pretty good on offense. They will have a good center next year. Hopefully Lee and Bogut will fit together. Jackson will finally be a trade asset as he gets near the end of his deal, just like Kwame was.

The injuries and overpayment are issues, Thunder’s Ghost, but oh my, yes, clearly the fans are what has held this team back for decades. If only ownership didn’t have these damn short-sided(?) thinking fans!

Thunder’s Ghost sounds like a Warriors Homer to me (must be on the Warriors payroll in PR dept). Is this the same Bogut that’s being questioned for his longevity? The one that’s out for the season due to ankle injuries? Please tell us who he is…. And in what you universe do you consider this a good trade, when you give up your best player and great young talent for an injury plagued big man + a has been.

Thunder’s Ghost

Heaven forbid Monta’s gone!

Oh no… Now we may lose and miss the playoffs — even though he never prevented that anyway.

waa waa waa

Thunder’s Ghost

Monta best player???

Only for a terrible team…

Injury plagued??? Last time i checked Monta missed an entire season after he hurt himself, not while playing — but on his mo-ped in Mississippi. Then lied about it.

Bogut is a 7′ center who has averaged a double double his career. Monta is a scoring shooting guard — which one is harder to come by in today’s NBA???

Martina

Monta and Brandon Jennings – wow, talk about high volume shooting.

I look forward to a few of those combined 20 for 60 shooting nights.

Scotty

@Evanz, moot point now I guess, but you don’t agree with me? You think his contract was what made trading him difficult? I definitely don’t, it was how much Lacob was trying to get in return. That’s where you could say he was being overvalued.

Regardless, I see what the Warriors are doing with this move and it could pay off, but I’m super bummed. Never easy seeing your favorite player traded (having Tim Hardaway flashbacks). Was hoping he could at least have ended up with a contender like Hardaway did.

FeatherRiverDan

Since Biedrins and Wright want to go too wouldn’t it be great if the warriors could pickup a first round pick and a player on his last year so they could sign Rush and McGuire long term……Thats my wish for Christmas…..