Periodically over the next few weeks, Im going to take an early consider the six divisions inside a slightly unorthodox manner. Utilizing batted ball data, well retrace the 2014 season and attempt to calculate each clubs true talent level. Making adjustments for teams offensive and defensive K and BB rates and team defense, well calculate each teams true talent 2014 won-lost record. Then, well take a look at the current Steamer projections for 2015, evaluate key player comings and goings, and see whether clubs are constructed so that you can handle the inevitable pitfalls along the way that may render such projections irrelevant. The 2nd installment of the series features the NL Central.
First, lets start it off having a table that will a sist as the backbone of our analysis:
2014BIP B OBPBIP B SLGBIP P OBPBIP P SLGBAT K %BAT BB %PIT K %PIT BB %DEF MULTSTL0.3220.4850.3140.47518.6%7.7%20.1%7.7%100.7PIT0.3240.5090.3130.46920.0%8.4%20.0%8.1%97.7MIL0.3170.4900.3170.49619.7%7.0%20.4%7.1%98.6CIN0.3050.4560.3200.49720.9%6.9%21.3%8.4%96.4CUB0.3170.4990.3200.48424.2%7.2%21.1%8.1%100.7MLB AVG0.3180.4890.3180.48920.4%7.6%20.4%7.6%100.0The first four columns indicate the resulting team AVG and SLG on all of each clubs balls in play (BIP) hit and allowed if they were hit inside a neutral environment. The major league average AVG and SLG on all BIP in 2014 were .318 and .489, respectively. Clubs performing above that much cla offensively and yielding production below that much cla defensively were excellent performers. The following four columns list each clubs offensive and defensive K and BB rates. The MLB averages in those categories were 20.4% and seven.6%, respectively in 2014.
The last column represents each clubs Defensive Multiplier. Again utilizing granular batted ball data, I've established a method to evaluate team defense, from the big-picture macro perspective, as opposed to the play-by-play micro perspective that methods such as DRS and UZR Trey Millard Jersey utilize. Simply compare each teams offensive and defensive actual and projected AVG and SLG what each team should have hit/allowed in line with the speed/exit angle mix of all balls in play (excluding home runs), and convert those actual and projected events to operate values. You're basically comparing each teams defense to that particular of the opponents over 162 games. If your teams defense was exactly as good his or her opponents over 162 games, their team Defensive Multiplier could be 100. Better than average defenses have scores under 100, below average team defenses have scores over 100.
Next, lets convert all of the data within the first table into run values, after which do same Pythagorean magic, and are available up with a number of projected win-lo s records. 1) On only each clubs BIP hit/allowed, 2) further adjusted for K and BB for/against, and three) further adjusted for teams Defensive Multiplier. This third projection represents the clubs true talent W-L record for 2014. For comparative purposes, each clubs 2014 actual and Pythagorean record are listed.
2014BIP W-LK/BB ADJDEF ADJACT W-LPYTH W-LSTL85-7787-7586-7690-7283-79PIT90-7290-7291-7188-7487-75MIL80-8281-8183-7982-8080-82CIN70-9270-9273-8976-8679-83CUB82-8075-8774-8873-8971-91Lets have broad observations about each one of the five NL Central clubs 2014 performance using the data in the two tables above.
The Cardinals are the reigning Allen Bailey Jersey royalty within the division, a gold standard type of club that has used traditional scouting and analytics to stay at or close to the top to have an longer timeframe. Their offensive BIP authority isnt overly imposing; both the Pirates and also the Cubs hit the ball harder. While they dont overwhelm the baseball, the Cards make use of the field much better than any club in baseball, and have a high offensive floor. The Cards pitchers managed batted ball authority very well; they ranked just behind the Pirates in connection with this, far ahead of the rest of their divisional mates. Based on BIP authority alone, the Cards were an 85-77 team last season.
In acce sory for while using entire field, Cards hitters put the ball in play at a very high rate. Their offensive K rate was undoubtedly the cheapest in the division last season. Their offensive BB rate and pitching K and BB rates counseled me around the MLB average, but that low offensive K rate pushes their projected record up a few games to 87-75. Their team defensive multiplier of 100.7 was tied for worst within the division using the Cubs, and nudges their projected record down a game title to 86-76, that is smack in the middle between their 2014 actual (90-72) and Pythagorean (83-79) records.
It seems like eons ago the Pirates were pining for that elusive breakthrough .500 season. They've now established themselves Seantavius Jones Jersey among the few clubs in baseball that is excellent in all phases from the game. Their offensive BIP authority was by far the very best within the division, as well as their pitching staff nosed the Cards for the best managing contacts ability. Their staff yields tons of ground balls, which were hit more weakly on average than the typical grounder. Based on BIP authority alone, these were a 90-72 club, very best in the division.
The Pirates offensive and pitching K and BB rates were all clustered around the MLB average; a little better on offense, a little weaker on the mound, keeping their projected record at 90-72. The Bucs really dont get credit for that excellence of the offense, his or her pitcher-friendly home park helps you to tamp down their raw offensive stats. They also had the 2nd best defense in the division, with a 97.7 defensive multiplier. This pushes their projection a game title higher to 91-71, better than their actual (88-74) and Pythagorean (87-75) records; the Pirates were the very best true-talent team in the Central in 2014.
The Brewers weren't likely to contend last season, but front-ran into September before collapsing out of the playoff race. Both their offensive and pitching BIP authority were not far from MLB average, but 4th very best in the division, ahead of just the Reds. Based on BIP authority alone, they were an 80-82 club.
Their relatively low offensive K and pitching BB rates permit them to tack a game title onto their projection to 81-81, and a solid team defense (98.6 multiplier) allows them to add two more to 83-79, pretty much in line with their actual (82-80) and Pythagorean (80-82) records.
The Reds nosedived out of contention last season, largely because of the absence of their marquee player, Joey Votto, for the bulk of the growing season. Their offensive BIP authority was by far the worst in the division. Additionally they struggled greatly on the mound, with Homer Bailey and the recently traded Mat Latos both mi sing significant time. According to BIP authority alone, this was a 70-92 club.
While their pitching staff had the very best K rate within the division, their offensive BB rate was the worst, as well as their projection remained unchanged after taking K and BB rates into consideration. The Reds had the best defense in the division to fall back upon (96.4 multiplier), increasing their projection to 73-89. This lags behind their actual (76-86) and Mike Person Jersey Pythagorean (79-83) records, but indicates that the Reds might have been even worse than they appeared last season.
Lastly, we have the Cubs, likely probably the most interesting team within the division. Their offensive BIP authority was actually quite good, above MLB average and 2nd in the division. Their pitching staff managing contacts ability was about MLB average, and third within the division, though far behind the Pirates and Cards. This, regardle s of the existence of Edwin Jackson. According to BIP authority alone, the 2014 Cubs were a much better than .500 club, at 82-80.
The Cubs, like the Astros within the AL West, were hamstrung by a serious offensive K rate last season. This, in addition to a low offensive K rate along with a high pitching staff BB rate, shaves seven games off of their projection, to 75-87. They matched the Cards for that worst defensive multiplier within the division at 100.7, shaving one more game, down to 74-88, not far from their actual (73-89) and Pythagorean (71-91) records.
Lets now look forward. Below are the present 2015 Steamer projections, as of Wednesday afternoon:
STEAMER15 PROJSTL87-75PIT86-76CUB84-78MIL77-85CIN76-86Lets briefly label and discu s some key areas of each club below. One note; I havent delved in to the clubs respective bullpens, as Tyreek Hill Jersey year-to-year club performance on the bottom has a tendency to fluctuate wildly.
ST. LOUIS CARDINALS The Blue Chip, Perennial Contender That Some Love To Hate ClubTheir floor is high, their ceiling low, when compared with other contenders. There is a knack for acquiring veteran performers at the ideal time, for the ideal price. Getting Jim Edmonds for Kent Bottenfield is simply one example, but po sibly the best one. Mark McGwire is yet another. Could Jason Heyward function as the next in the lineage? Whether they can fix his swing, unlock his power, after which extend his contract, they just might have a monster on their own hands. Oh, and hes 25. Their lineup is solid and balanced, but key pieces for example Yadier Molina, Matt Holliday and Jhonny Peralta either have entered or simply about to attempt their respective decline phases.
The Cards are very vulnerable if they were to lose any one or even more of the quantity of their frontliners; near the four regulars referenced within the preceding paragraph, losing Matt Adams, Kolten Wong or Matt Carpenter for just about any period of time would present problems. Peter Bourjos gives them some insurance in center field, however the tragic lack of Oscar Taveras leaves all of them with limited protection around the outfield corners. Their starting pitching depth is solid, thanks in large part to the clubs capability to hit on late first round picks like Michael Wacha and Marco Gonzales.
PITTSBURGH PIRATES The Meet The brand new Floor, Same As The Old Ceiling ClubTalk about high floors. The Pirates, though a resurgent organization with improved income and a rising payroll, still cant manage to hold onto their succe sful reclamation projections, like Ru sell Martin and Edinson Volquez. Thats OK, they simply buy have le s A.J. Burnett following the Phils bought high, likely improving their rotation. Francisco Cervelli wont be Martin, but hell likely be more than adequate, and also the cost savings allowed them to have a crack at wild card Jung-ho Kang. They have the divisions best player in Andrew McCutchen, their staff will again yield a boatload of weak grounders, and the club is going to be well-tailored well to the ballpark.
Their depth and adaptability, very quietly, is becoming quite good. McCutchen may in fact be their only truly indispensable position player. Their ceiling may not stick out around their floor, but Gregory Polanco has substantial upside above his WAR projection, enough to potentially result in the difference in the division race. An area of relative weakne s; starting pitching depth isnt great, at least until Charlie Morton and/or Jameson Taillon return from injury.
CHICAGO CUBS: The Future Has become, Or perhaps is It? ClubHere may be the divisional X Factor. Their product is, and has been as loaded at the top as any in recent memory, and also the wave hit the big league club last season. Jorge Soler, Kris Bryant, Javier Baez and potentially Arismendy Alcantara are lined up for significant playing time Christian Okoye Jersey in Chicago this season, and at least the previous three have star upside. Around the down side to this, growing pains are to expected, as well as the best-case scenario, these kids wont exactly addre s the clubs offensive K problem in the temporary. To reduce overall club risk, the club wisely acquired veteran stabilizers like Dexter Fowler and Miguel Montero to carry down full-time jobs in key defensive positions. The club has resources, both in dollars as well as in players for example Welington Castillo and Edwin Jackson, to addre s any emerging needs.
For a young team that hasnt tasted contention yet, they've relatively few irreplaceable position players. Fowler, Bryant, and Anthony Rizzo would be the three theyd struggle the most without. Their starting pitching depth is strong. The Cubs likely have the best upside within the NL Central this year, but po se s a fairly low chance of reaching it. When the kids look comfy in the early going, watch out.
MILWAUKEE BREWERS: The They Are Who We Thought They Were ClubBrewer fans didnt expect much heading in to the 2014 season, but were then delighted by an endle s summer and spring of wins. Everything unraveled in September, and the 82-80 record that will happen to be satisfactory on Opening Day suddenly had a bitter taste. The Brewers have had a typically understated offseason, finally addre sing their longstanding first base problem with the purchase of Adam Lind, but weakening their rotation with the departure of Marco Estrada (within the Lind deal) and Yovani Gallardo. The roster has an incomplete feel, even now late in January, and it is quite likely that the payroll savings in the Gallardo deal will be reinvested in some manner in to the pitching staff.
Organizational depth remains an i sue for that Brewers. The Earl Okine Jersey purchase of Gerardo Parra gives them solid corner outfield insurance, though the lack of Carlos Gomez in center for any length of time would be a killer. Jonathan Lucroy is indispensable behind home plate, there really arent ready replacements any place in the infield, using the po sible exception of Luis Sardinas behind Jean Segura at shortstop. The departure of Gallardo and Estrada leaves them bone dry behind the likely season opening starting rotation. Though Wily Peralta and Jimmy Nelson have solid untapped upsides, this clubs floor is relatively low.
CINCINNATI REDS: The Window May have Closed ClubWeve discu sed indispensable players, Plan Bs, etc., quite a bit today, and the 2014 Cincinnati Reds and Joey Votto are living proof of what happens whenever a solid club with insufficient depth loses this type of player. A lot of the Reds organizational value is and it was clustered in a tiny number of players, and many of these have begun to break down physically and/or are entering their respective decline phases.
The Reds had a strange offseason, at the same time serving as contenders and rebuilders. They broke down mostly of the remaining club strengths, their starting rotation, by moving Mat Latos and Alfredo Simon. The players they received, pitchers Anthony DeSclafani and Jonathan Crawford and middle infielder Eugenio Suarez, are promising, only one shouldnt count on material 2015 production from them. However, they acquired Marlon Byrd from the Phillies for solid pitching prospect Ben Lively. The 2015 Reds upside isnt great, and the lo s of any one of Votto, Brandon Phillips, Todd Frazier, Billy Hamilton or Jay Bruce could spell disaster. Their starting pitching depth can also be substandard compared to their peers.