Thursday, December 21, 2006

Thursday 12/21 A.M. Quickie:In Defense of Tanking a Season

Sixers lose 12th straight: There's no question the Sixers should intentionally tank the rest of the season to position themselves to have the best chance to win Greg Oden in the NBA Draft Lottery.

The only debate is how open they should be about it. I'm sure David Stern would freak out, but if I was the team owners and management, I'd tell the fans exactly that. Fans would respect the team a hell of a lot more for it if they knew the losing was in service of something bigger.

I have this terrific ongoing debate with fans and readers over "To tank or not to tank" for draft position. I contend that as long as fans understand the tanking is in the service of something better, they'll not only understand, but applaud.

The classic case study is Cleveland Cavs fans. I don't hear many complaining that the team essentially tanked their season to ensure they drafted LeBron James. How many fans would trade a single 0-82 season for LeBron? I would imagine somewhere between many, most and all.

In this case, aside from the perennial lottery risk that even with the worst record, the Sixers won't get the first overall pick, the case for tanking (and being open about it) is "Oden-and-shut."

So what has more integrity: Admitting you're tanking to draft the best post player in a generation or losing but putting up a false front that you're actually trying, when everyone REALLY knows you would rather have the best post player in a generation. Tank away, Sixers.

There's only one problem with the plan...

Is Larry Brown coming back to the Sixers? The only thing that could truly derail a rebuilding project, hubbed around three 2007 first-round draft picks is to let Larry "Wrong Way" Brown be a part of the team, as advisor, coach, whatever. As we saw a year ago, he simply ruins young teams. If Sixers fans should have any outrage, it's that Brown is in the picture.

Knicks are 2-0 since the MSG Brawl: As long as they're winning, it's a lot harder to criticize the tactics, doesn't it? (And good for David Lee for having the game-winning tip-in at the buzzer. Despite being one of the most productive second-year players in the NBA, Isiah has kind of jerked him around with Jared Jeffries' return from injury.)

AI's debut in Denver was delayed by a snowstorm, but so was the Nuggets' game versus the Suns, which everyone wanted to see AI play in anyway. He'll make his debut tomorrow against the Kings.

(Meanwhile, reading about the juiced ticket sales in Denver with AI's arrival, I repeat: Iverson's powder-blue Nuggets jersey will be the NBA's top seller, despite a late start.)

Can you think of anything less sexy than a three-way between T.O., Deion Sanders and DeAngelo Hall? But that's exactly what they had, as Deion got Hall on the phone with T.O. to let Owens apologize for spitting in Hall's face. Hall accepted, and the trio all moved on to lovingly gaze at each other's reflections in the mirror.

I think Washington super-freshman big man Spencer Hawes just played himself into the NBA Draft Top 10. It was one of "those" kind of games, the reputation-makers:

Put Hawes in the mix at the top of the 2007 draft class, right below consensus 1-2 picks Oden and Durant. I think by the time we get to next June, we'll be talking about Hawes in the Top 5.

MLB Hot Stove: Zitopalooza Update. Are the Mets serious about signing Jeff Suppan as insurance in case the Zito deal falls through, or simply using him as leverage to get Barry Zito to sign?

College Football Recruiting: Wild news. QB John Brantley, who won the Gatorade award for H.S. Football Player of the Year and is arguably the No. 1 QB in the Class of 2007, has reversed on his commitment to attend Texas in favor of his home-state Florida, a huge coup for the Gators and a devastating hit for the Longhorns (particularly given that this is the second time in three years this has happened to them). I, uh, sort of follow Florida football, so I'm happy, but a little wary: Given that freshman sensation Tim Tebow has three years left, why would Brantley want to sit behind Tebow for that long?

Is it Thursday yet? Ah! I'll take the Packers over the Vikings tonight, because, despite how shitty the Packers and Brett Favre are this season, I'm not sure Vikings rookie QB Tarvaris Jackson is ready to win in Green Bay at night in December yet. But I love that the Vikings are playing him, and I stick by yesterday's twice-affirmed argument that if I was the Packers GM and I was offered Jackson for Favre, straight up, I'd be effing insane not to do the deal. (Assuming away all the ugly baggage that comes with trading Favre and simply measuring their talents and remaining career upside against each other.)

64 comments:

Tanking doesn't necessarily work out in your favor. Look at the celts when they tanked for Duncan. Or Houston last year, they didn't even draft Bush. Plus, there could be someone else in the draft that could be better than Oden. Not a fact, but it could happen. Look at Joakim Noah, who would have been the consensus #1 last year if he left. No one probably thought he was even Top 10 at this point last year.

So, If yesterday was thursday, DS's pick is Vikes, but if today is Thursday, DS's pick is the Packers. What happened overnight?

I'm a Vikings fan, but my pick is Green Bay. Farve will throw a bunch of TDs against the Vikes' pass D. This win will pave the way for GB to make the playoffs at 8-8. (No, I don't know what the tiebreaker scenarios are.)

You've gotta tank. Even if you don't get first pick, this is a great draft to be picking high in. And you've got to factor in that the lottery was created for Stern to control the draft, and he's going to want to put Oden in Philly. Whatever happens, the only way to rebuild in the NBA is to bottom out then work back up. It's the only way. So let Philly hit rock bottom, then pick up their new franchise player and begin again.

I'm a Cavs fan, and we were all begging the team to tank for LeBron. And the team did it so blatantly, they didn't have to come out and tell us what was going on. Everybody knew, and everybody was happy about it. The only uproar was when the team actually won its last game, giving it a share for the worst record with Denver and thereby costing us some ping pong balls. The best part of that season was when we released Bimbo Coles, and then he complained that we were tanking the season... no shit buddy, why do you think you had a job?

The reason you don't tank the season is because you never know what way the ball bounces. Every year, it seems like the team with the worst record gets the #3 or #4 pick. That would suck.

PS...After seeing all the people who had 32 points on TCU's win...makes me think that they forgot to do the confidence pick. Who on earth seriously put 32 points down on THAT game and actually meant it?

Just wanted to bid a fond farewell to everybody, as I'm going to be abandoning my typical sports-related haunts on the Internet in favor of paper and eyes (yep, even Simmons and TMQ). Now's a good time to do so since I'll be hitting the road tomorrow anyway for several days, and it's easier to break with no Internet access.

Normally I don't say goodbye but I don't want any snide comments along the lines of 'haven't seen ChrTh since the Packers got eliminated from the playoffs' happening (in case the Pack lost tonight). That said, if the Pack do make the playoffs I will be back for one "Ha I Told You So!" post.

And of course if I win the Daily Quickie Readers group for the Bowls, I'll come by to collect my 'prize'.

" Well he is arguably the #1 QB in the country per ESPN and Rivals.com... "

While I don't really disagree with the fact that he could be arguably #1 QB in the country (even though every single HS scout i've seen, or talked to have all said Jimmy Clausen is hands down the best QB in the 2007 class) if he stayed at texas, DS wouldn't have said he is arguably the #1 QB. Thats all.

To continue upon what CrumbBum was saying and to correct your perfect case study a little bit:

At the end of the 2002-2003 season two teams were at the bottom of the standings with identical 17W/65L records:

The Cleveland Cavaliers who won 2 of their last 3 games including 104-99 in OT against Knicks in 3rd to last game of season.

The second team was the Denver Nuggets who had 8 losses in a row to end the season.

By winning those games, Cleveland dropped its chances of winning the first pick from 25% down to 22.5%.

I was right up there rooting for the team to lose so we could get LeBron, I even brought a sign to one of the games that read: "If You Lose, LeBron Will Come." (http://sports.yahoo.com/nba/recap?gid=2003030805) ...I'm in the Notes section at the bottom of the recap and I made it on Sportscenter and NBA 2 Night that night.

I've been saying it since the 76ers held Iverson past last Tuesday that they were going to keep losing so that they could get Oden and I think it's the right thing to do...

Brantley will redshirt next year and then spend a year as Tebow's backup. It's doubtfull Tebow will be there all 4 years, though he could pull a Lienat/Manning since it sems like he loves UF that much. DS bias aside, and no matter what happens Jan. 8, Gators will start next year #1, probably by a wide margin.

TANK....TANK....TANK....if you gotta chance to nab a bonifide superstar - DO IT!

I mean you're always gambling that you'll get #1, but at least you'll get the best or 2nd best in the draft.

Best cases:NBA: LebronNFL: 2nd - BushNHL: Crosby & Fleury (back to back years - that is how you rebuild)MLB: psyche! - can't wait for the televised draft this June...right..

On the Pens move situation, which I gather noone cares about - if they move to Oklahoma City, will they be the biggest ticket in town (I hear that hockey is bigger in OKC than Bball).

If they move to Hamilton or Kitchener/Waterloo (both in Ontario, Canada) will anyone care but us Canadians?

BTW: Loving the way that the Raptors are soo under the radar right now - they beat the Clips last night in LA, with a buzzer beater by TJ Ford a night after he was taken off the court with a bruised back. Did I mention that this was without Bosh and assorted spare parts in the line up? They're 4-3 with Bosh out of the lineup.

Also - Il Mago (Barganiani) and Rasho have stepped it up big time. I'll say it now....Il Mago will be ROY this year....low expectations....great in the paint and a terror from behind the arc. Does anyone think that he was a horrible pick at #1 now with the less than stellar play of the rest of the 1st round class?

First, jason nailed it on the top comment, but there certainly is the chance that the Sixers tank for the entire year, alienate their fan base, and then lose the lottery.

And, considering the low quality of the Atlantic division, there's a great chance that a different Atlantic team (please, God, let it be Boston - it's only fair after the Duncan "incident"...) ends up with that #1 pick and Sixers fans have to watch Oden dominate for the next six years.

Of course, there's cmfost's point too - what if Oden stays at tOSU for another year? He's nursing that wrist, and might not be able to showcase himself the way he or his handlers would want. Sure, everybody in the NBA knows what the kid could do, but he might want to prove himself even more.

The bigger factor with the second scenario is money - one more year in school = one more year for the NBA salary cap to rise = higher rookie salaries and signing bonuses.

If he stays healthy for a year, he's still the #1 overall pick. Why not stay in school and get himself another couple million, and maybe a shot at a national title?

I know the money is huge, but Oden keeps making little comments about how he is going to stay at tOSU. I can't imagine he would be doing it just to appease the fans, cause we all thought he would be one and done before he got here.

Sit behind Tebow?Sit behind McCoy? Either way stinks for him. But I bet Tebow has a better chance of being injured in the Gator system, so that means the new kid will have a shot. BTW, I'm pretty sure Troy Smith wasn't anywhere on those "#1 High School QB" malarkey awards. I think Zwick was...hmmm.

Again, Oden should stay in school. Especially if his pro option is to go to Philly. Yikes. He has seen how much help Philly gave its last superstar, why would he go there?

As regards tanking - I don't think it is a good idea to get in the habit of losing. The Cavs got lucky, but had they not tanked, they may have 'settled' for Dwayne Wade, who, while maybe not quite as good, is a seriously good player. And you never 'really' know with the draft; I mean, if Oden has a career ending injury or something, he obviously not have been worth it.Personally, the only reason you tank any game (other than resting your starters for the playoffs, which is cool) is to try to land a homecourt playoff series (oh wait, the NBA restructured their playoffs, so that really is no longer a valid reason).

I'm serious about that not getting in the habit of losing, though - if you keep losing, even if its tanking, it will have an effect on your psyche (even if some fans approve, I can't believe the players do, and I really cannot fathom rooting for a player who would actually tank, who would say ole to a guy he's supposed to be guarding, or purposefully miss a game-winning shot).

Anyway, I think the Detroit Lions have been tanking to get high draft picks for years, and how's that working for them?

rafael~ Good point about Zwick...our local paper just had an article about that recruiting class of '02, Zwick announcing his signing and what a big deal it was. Troy Smith was the last signee and was simply labeled "athlete".

The problem that I have with tanking the season is that you run the risk of absolutely killing your franchise. Look at what happened to the Celtics with the Tim Duncan debacle - it's been so many years I can barely remember and the Celtics still suck.

There are no guarantees in the NBA draft and tanking just to get one player is really risky. This year it isn't as bad because the draft is so deep but if you wind up with the 4th pick after losing every game from here on out your fanbase might never recover.

Another good point about anking - this year's NBA draft class looks as though it will be very deep. 1997 (The Duncan Year) wasn't all that good. There was TD, Kieth VanHorn, Chauncey Billups, Tracy McGrady... and not much else.

BTW - It was almost like Rick Pitino was shellshocked from the day of the lottery until draft day. Everyone remembers the C's getting hosed and ending up with the #3 overall pick (Chauncey Billups) behind San Antonio and Philly (Van Horn), but Boston also had the #6 overall pick. Pitino managed to waste that one on the legendary Ron Mercer. T-Mac fell to #9 overall.

As a fan I can say I would not want to see my favorite teams tanking to POTENTIALLY get a number 1 pick in the draft. How many number 1 picks turn out to be busts? An 0-82 season being worth it to get an elite player? You're crazy Dan. You can go through some off years in an attempt to rebuild and still maintain some respect that your fans can hang their hat on when it's all said and done.

generik, like I said before, not a single person in Cleveland complained about what was happening. Philly has been losing for so long, they'd be glad to endure another losing season for a top draft pick that can turn the franchise around.

Speaking of tanking for a draft pick. I was watching the Detroit - GB game last weekend (because fantasy football makes you do strange things). Down 10-6 with 11 minutes in the game Detroit intercepts Favre on the GB 12 yard line. The ensuing offensive series goes: Hand off to Arlen Harris for 4 yards, hand off to Harris for 0 yards, Kitna up the middle for 3 yards on a QB draw(definitely by design, not a broken play), field goal. I have never seen a team try not to score a TD in the red zone that hard.

I don't think Dan is man enough to even attempt a sissy slap. I do not think Teabow is going to be a good QB for Florida dude has a noodle and no those passes against Western Carolina A&M Tech do not count Dan.

I don't think it's a big deal if Oden goes back to OSU for another year. Actually that might work out better for Philly, who probably won't be any good next year either. Just think if they could draft Durant or Wright this year with the potential to get Oden next year. That's the start of one dominant front court.

Crumbbum - I am talking more for myself then the average fan in general. If I found out my favorite team was tanking, I would probably choose to root for someone else at that point. If everyone knew a team was going to tank the season, how many fans do you think would show up to see them play? How many of those fans would pay for the directTV package to watch them? Next to none would be my guess. The profit for these teams comes mainly from ticket sales. You have a bad enough season with really poor attendance, the average fan's attention moves on to a different sport / team. So what, you got a big draft pick.. now you need to pray that he works out well enough and fast enough to get all those fans that stopped caring the year you tanked to actually start coming back out to the arena. And from what I have seen just with the Pacers here, it is a monumental task to get the fans back once they lose interest.

I mention the Pacers because they play at home to roughly half capacity crowds now just because of all the bullshit from the past couple years. The team honestly needs a rebuild from the ground up to establish a new image with the fanbase, but can't do it because most of the players are in huge multi-year contracts. But here they are this year, exceeding expectations so far, and still the city of Indianapolis doesn't give a shit about them. I personally am not an NBA fan, but I have found myself watching the standings this year just because they are doing better then they were supposed. Would I be if they were just tanking? no

Anyway.. that's just my feeling. I wouldn't respect *my* team any longer if I knew they had whored themselves out for a draft pick.

Here is a question in the depth of the NBA draft. Is the depth of the Draft because there are a lot of quality college senior that will be in the draft or is it projected to be a strong draft based on who everyone thinks will enter the draft early? And if it is based on who enters the draft early could it not be that this draft will not be as strong as everyone thinks?

Being a Pittsburgh native, and current resident of Central PA, I think Pittsburgh should secede from the state of PA for the screwjob they got from the PA Gaming Board. I wonder if Ed Rendell (governor, Philly native) would vote against a casino that would help build a new Flyers/Sixers arena and prevent those teams from moving. It can't even be good business. I can tell you right now I will NEVER step foot in the casino that did get approved, and a lot of fans probably feel the same way.

You debunked your own arguement for Oden satying at OSU. He had to go to college this year or sit it out until the 2007 summer draft. He ended up hurting his wrist and still isn't 100%. Why would he stay in and risk getting hurt again, while sacraficing a huge payday to play pro? He's the consensus #1 pick, EVEN WHEN HE'S NURSING THE WRIST. No way he stays at OSU next year.

The Sixers would be stupid to tank for the chance to pick Oden, because it is not a guaranteed #1 pick thanks to the lottery.

As discussed here yesterday, the draft goes pretty deep and as long as the Sixers keep their three picks within the top 20 positions, they'll be able to bring in some young talent or at least have some trade bait between draft night and the end of next season.

I'm for tanking, but not this early (in the case of the Sixers). But as someone else said, the Sixers could play their hearts out for 3/4 of the season and still stink to high heaven, so whatever. I do think that as the season's winding down and everyone's looking to next year anyway, you may as well tank then, because at least then you're doing something designed to give your fanbase a little hope and something to look forward to.

I was in Boston at school when they didn't get the Duncan pick. I don't think I've ever seen a team/city take a draft seeding harder, EVER. There's got to be some in between where your entire franchise won't crumble if you don't get the pick, but the fans can get a kick at the end of what will be a miserable season whether they tank or not.

Of course, I'm a Knicks fan who hates Isiah and can't help but hope to watch him hand over the #1 pick and Oden to the Bulls while he keeps yammering about the greatness of Eddy Curry. What an idiot...that's the least of what he deserves.

The thing to keep in mind, and what people have been saying is--high school recruit rankings are a huge improbablity. Clausen could be the next Troy Smith or the next Justin Zwick, you just have to wait and see. So Dan, being a Florida fan, can pump up the Gatorade award as much as he wants. Just like someone else will trumpet Parade All-Americans, or the Got Milk Athlete, or Wendy's Heisman, or all those crazy things. So coming from the standpoint of a Florida fan, Dan can say that Brantley is agruably the number 1 player. And coming from a Notre Dame alum, I can say that Clausen is Jesus's offspring. There is no way to prove anyone right or wrong until another 4 years goes by. And the debating, watching, and cheering are why we all love sports.

The draft picks that went to Philly are from Denver and Dallas. They'll trade higher on their own first round (sure to be lottery) pick.

But if you're blowing up the team because you built it around the guy you just traded, there are worse things than 3 darts thrown at a single draft. They were losing with AI, they might as well try something new.

Hey Dan, here's something to piss you off: ESPN.Com has a poll for the year's best chat - and your final MQ didn't even make the top ten. Are you sure there were no hard feelings in your departure from ESPN?

People are acting like getting the #1 pick is the only reward possible for tanking. But, consider that losing more games makes you more likely to get any lower spot on the draft board, not just the #1. What if it gives them the #2 spot, while not tanking would give them the #3, or #4? Remember, we're not talking in hindsight--a higher pick is intrinsically better than a lower pick.

With that said, I don't think tanking is a bad thing, except that the team not only has to refuse to admit it to the press, they have refuse to admit it to themselves. Otherwise, you'll get this apathy that may be hard to shake next year.

I have been a little behind so this may have been said(I don't plan on reading 63 comments) but the problem with "tanking" a season is that the players want to win. The players that would be tanking want to win and play well to keep their spots on the roster. Why would they tank so that the team can replace them with a younger kid who they say is better?

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