Drivers have figured out the Chase format

Published: Friday, October 12, 2012 at 08:03 PM.

CONCORD – As the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series thunders into the final stages of its 64thseason, growing pains continue to plague it a bit. Attendance and television ratings aren’t what they were five years go.

Numbers rise and fall. Many factors, both exterior and interior, have been cited. Is it the sluggish economy? Is it the Chase? Are the new fans who flocked to the sport after the turn of the century just tired of it?

Is the racing as good?

When confronted with the notion of “boring races,” most drivers either roll their eyes in disbelief or dismiss the very idea. Many say they race the same in every race, regardless of the circumstances.

“I’ve always said, if you win races, the points will take care of themselves,” said the reigning Sprint Cup champion, Tony Stewart, who ought to know.

Once upon a time, winning the championship at NASCAR’s highest level was a season-long competition in which the value of every race was the same. Then, in 2004, NASCAR implemented its Chase format, which boiled down the championship to 10 (originally, now 12) drivers competing over the final 10 races. Each race still has 43 starters, but in terms of the championship, only 12 matter.

“I definitely take different attitudes at various points in the season,” said Jimmie Johnson, who won five Chases in a row (2006-10) and is in the thick of the current one. “As the Chase wears on, you start looking at each other as it narrows down, and you do race differently. You really start ‘strategizing.’

CONCORD – As the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series thunders into the final stages of its 64thseason, growing pains continue to plague it a bit. Attendance and television ratings aren’t what they were five years go.

Numbers rise and fall. Many factors, both exterior and interior, have been cited. Is it the sluggish economy? Is it the Chase? Are the new fans who flocked to the sport after the turn of the century just tired of it?

Is the racing as good?

When confronted with the notion of “boring races,” most drivers either roll their eyes in disbelief or dismiss the very idea. Many say they race the same in every race, regardless of the circumstances.

“I’ve always said, if you win races, the points will take care of themselves,” said the reigning Sprint Cup champion, Tony Stewart, who ought to know.

Once upon a time, winning the championship at NASCAR’s highest level was a season-long competition in which the value of every race was the same. Then, in 2004, NASCAR implemented its Chase format, which boiled down the championship to 10 (originally, now 12) drivers competing over the final 10 races. Each race still has 43 starters, but in terms of the championship, only 12 matter.

“I definitely take different attitudes at various points in the season,” said Jimmie Johnson, who won five Chases in a row (2006-10) and is in the thick of the current one. “As the Chase wears on, you start looking at each other as it narrows down, and you do race differently. You really start ‘strategizing.’

“I think I start out each Chase with the ‘one race at a time’ strategy. … In some ways, you spin it by its effect on the team, but in some ways, you do it just to keep your sanity.”

The first two Chases, 2004-05, went to drivers, Kurt Busch and Stewart, who were consistent in it. Then along came Johnson, whose five championships were mostly a result of winning races when they mattered most. Last year Stewart managed that even better, going winless during the 26-race regular season and then winning five times in the Chase. He won by a tie-breaker over the driver, Carl Edwards, who attained the finest average finish (4.9) in the format’s history.

“You kind of have an idea in your mind of what you think is going to keep you in and what’s going to get you out of the hunt,” Stewart said, “but I think last year was one of those unique scenarios that proved to everybody that you don’t give up, you don’t quit on it. Until they say that you are mathematically out of it, you’re never out of it.”

“Right now, where we’re at and how many points we need to make up, I think it lets us have a go-for-broke attitude and just go out and try to win races,” Stewart. “We could still, by theory, win the next six races in a row and still not win the point championship. It’s about going out and doing what we can do, and the other 11 drivers are going to dictate their fates, too.”

Racing – not to mention seasons of it – can be measured in various ways. To many observers, the first 20 races of the season – with some notable exceptions – seemed a bit lackluster. During the summer, following the season’s earlier visit to Charlotte Motor Speedway, 2,353 miles were run on intermediate (1.5-2.0 miles in length) without a single multi-car crash.

In the six races leading up to the Chase, the excitement seemed to rise, perhaps because a number of drivers were desperate to make the Chase. The first three races of the Chase all featured comfortable winning margins, mostly debris and oil caution flags and a modest number of lead changes.

Then along came Talladega, which, in effect, created desperation again. Twenty-five cars wrecked on the final lap. The effect was to give one driver who managed to snake his way through the mess, Keselowski, a bit of an edge over his pursuers. It also served the purpose of making most of the Chase field unable to catch Keselowski on their own. Other than Johnson (14 points behind) and Denny Hamlin (-23), all others must wait for Keselowski to make a mistake or experience misfortune.

Compared to this point a year ago, both caution flags and lead changes are down. In the first 30 races of 2011, the average number of caution flags was 13.4. This year it’s 5.5. The average lead changes declined from 26.7 to 19.1.

To a man, the drivers all insist that the level of competition is up, but in many ways the level of excitement is down.

A year ago, a major topic of conversation was the “boys, have at it” attitude, based on NASCAR officials’ apparent decision to let driver settle their differences on the track without undue interference from the ruling body.

It’s but a memory.

“My opinion is, when NASCAR said ‘boys, have at it,’ that didn't change any driver's way of going about things,” Jamie McMurray said. “It's not like we all got together and said, ‘hey, let's get rowdy!’ It's coincidental that it happened then.

“There are some fans out there who like to watch racing, and then there are others who maybe like to watch the drama and maybe some that like a little of both.”