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No. But most measurables can be calculated. There's also shared data out there.

That would be the case with every team. Everyone has hits and misses.

You know how many J2 kids are signed every year? About 1,400. About 1,200 are drafted. The Padres spent over $80 million in the J2 2016 signing period. A total of 54 signed that year, including Morejon, Baez, Patino, Ona, Bolanos, Hernandez, Arias, Almanzar, Barley and dozens more.

If just Patino and Morejon reach their current FV, the $80 million will be a bargain. In fact, if Patino ($100k bonus) reaches FV, it'll be the bargain of the century.

We're talking about trading for other teams top prospects, not necessarily drafting and developing. As far as other teams top prospects, I believe these are the ones the Padres have traded for; Anderson Espinoza, Francisco Meija, Josh Naylor and Taylor Trammell. Tatis and Paddack were not in the top 5 of either teams lists.

The consensus worry about Espinoza was injury due to his size, the consensus was correct. The consensus worry about Meija was could he stick at catcher, the jury is still out, but do you think his defense has improved to enough to keep him back there? Most think Campusano takes his spot in 2 years. Naylor was near the bottom of the Top 100 and I believe first in a depleted Marlins system when we acquired him. The consensus worry about Naylor is will he hit for enough power to play 1st, even though the Padres play him in the OF because he's blocked by Hosmer. He's more fleet of foot than Franmil but he's likely headed down a similar path. His body type doesn't age well. Jury is still out. Now we have Trammell, pretty much no one thinks he's a CFer, except the Padres. As Buey has brought up if he has to move to LF, it will hurt roster construction. If he's the next Carl Crawford, it won't matter.

You know as well as everyone else that productive pre-arb players are worth their weight in gold, which is why the Astros aren't trading Forrest Whitley. That's the entire point of the article, the ones that are traded are overwhelmingly unproductive. Which is why it always raises eyebrows. Another note, the article was written last year, so all the technology you site is already well known. Which is why the article mentions the wearable tech, it's likely where the next information gap lies.

Comment

We're talking about trading for other teams top prospects, not necessarily drafting and developing. As far as other teams top prospects, I believe these are the ones the Padres have traded for; Anderson Espinoza, Francisco Meija, Josh Naylor and Taylor Trammell. Tatis and Paddack were not in the top 5 of either teams lists.

The consensus worry about Espinoza was injury due to his size, the consensus was correct. The consensus worry about Meija was could he stick at catcher, the jury is still out, but do you think his defense has improved to enough to keep him back there? Most think Campusano takes his spot in 2 years. Naylor was near the bottom of the Top 100 and I believe first in a depleted Marlins system when we acquired him. The consensus worry about Naylor is will he hit for enough power to play 1st, even though the Padres play him in the OF because he's blocked by Hosmer. He's more fleet of foot than Franmil but he's likely headed down a similar path. His body type doesn't age well. Jury is still out. Now we have Trammell, pretty much no one thinks he's a CFer, except the Padres. As Buey has brought up if he has to move to LF, it will hurt roster construction. If he's the next Carl Crawford, it won't matter.

You know as well as everyone else that productive pre-arb players are worth their weight in gold, which is why the Astros aren't trading Forrest Whitley. That's the entire point of the article, the ones that are traded are overwhelmingly unproductive. Which is why it always raises eyebrows. Another note, the article was written last year, so all the technology you site is already well known. Which is why the article mentions the wearable tech, it's likely where the next information gap lies.

Naylor was not a top 100 anything neither was Paddack for that matter...both became top 100 as Padres...we also acquired Allen and Margot and Guerra and only Margot was a top 35ish then and has been a mlb CF with at least league avg performance . I believe javy and Logan were not top 100 but both seem to have a path to mlb..Allen got flipped for Trammell ..... By the way Trammell has been of interest since before being drafted and AJP has kept an eye on him since ..so he may know him better than the Reds do... Also remember we had Luis Castillo for like a week before Rae blew out his arm and were forced to return him...he now is the ace of the Reds...why do 8 mention this? Because it shows you how good AJP and his staff are at iding future talented prospec5s across all clubs

Comment

Naylor was not a top 100 anything neither was Paddack for that matter...both became top 100 as Padres...we also acquired Allen and Margot and Guerra and only Margot was a top 35ish then and has been a mlb CF with at least league avg performance . I believe javy and Logan were not top 100 but both seem to have a path to mlb..Allen got flipped for Trammell ..... By the way Trammell has been of interest since before being drafted and AJP has kept an eye on him since ..so he may know him better than the Reds do... Also remember we had Luis Castillo for like a week before Rae blew out his arm and were forced to return him...he now is the ace of the Reds...why do 8 mention this? Because it shows you how good AJP and his staff are at iding future talented prospec5s across all clubs

I thought Guerra and Margot were the co-prizes

2013, 2014 WAR is stupid Champ!!!!

Comment

We're talking about trading for other teams top prospects, not necessarily drafting and developing. As far as other teams top prospects, I believe these are the ones the Padres have traded for; Anderson Espinoza, Francisco Meija, Josh Naylor and Taylor Trammell. Tatis and Paddack were not in the top 5 of either teams lists.

You know as well as everyone else that productive pre-arb players are worth their weight in gold, which is why the Astros aren't trading Forrest Whitley. That's the entire point of the article, the ones that are traded are overwhelmingly unproductive. Which is why it always raises eyebrows. Another note, the article was written last year, so all the technology you site is already well known. Which is why the article mentions the wearable tech, it's likely where the next information gap lies.

Still, the Padres moved Turner. They Cubs moved Eloy and Glyber. The Red Sox moved Moncada and Kopech. Arizona moved Swanson. Washington moved Giolito.

My point remains. There's risk/reward in every prospect. There's also unlimited potential -- aka upside/ceiling -- with the higher prospects. Crash and burn are part of the equation. I'd rather shoot for the stars.

Comment

There's no evidence that his size contributed to his injury. That would be pure assumption.

He's improved a lot. Perhaps more than a half season will tell. He's already displacing the best defensive catcher on the planet.

Still, the Padres moved Turner. They Cubs moved Eloy and Glyber. The Red Sox moved Moncada and Kopech. Arizona moved Swanson. Washington moved Giolito.

My point remains. There's risk/reward in every prospect. There's also unlimited potential -- aka upside/ceiling -- with the higher prospects. Crash and burn are part of the equation. I'd rather shoot for the stars.

I hope Turner is exactly the type of situation that brought us Trammell, an ill advised, short sighted decision. The difference is Turner was a Padre for months, not years. I'll let you have the last word and then let this die, after all I'm rooting for the guy even if I'm skeptical.

Comment

I hope Turner is exactly the type of situation that brought us Trammell, an ill advised, short sighted decision. The difference is Turner was a Padre for months, not years. I'll let you have the last word and then let this die, after all I'm rooting for the guy even if I'm skeptical.

If it doesn't turn out, I'm saying it wasn't short-sighted. Lin quoted Preller in The Athletic that they've been on Trammell for a very long time.

Comment

Your baseball knowledge is expanding by leaps and bounds. I've learned so much in the past 3 years. It is an extraordinary game.

The stuff we're discussing, i.e. deep into prospect signing and player development, is really the game with in the game. People who claim baseball is "boring", never get beyond understanding half the rules, and almost none of the in game strategy. Then, they miss everything below the Major League level, and say "Yeah, I've watched a baseball game - BORING!!".

Their problem is somewhere between an inability to understand or appreciate complexity, and being too lazy to bother with it.

Comment

We're talking about trading for other teams top prospects, not necessarily drafting and developing. As far as other teams top prospects, I believe these are the ones the Padres have traded for; Anderson Espinoza, Francisco Meija, Josh Naylor and Taylor Trammell. Tatis and Paddack were not in the top 5 of either teams lists.

The consensus worry about Espinoza was injury due to his size, the consensus was correct. The consensus worry about Meija was could he stick at catcher, the jury is still out, but do you think his defense has improved to enough to keep him back there? Most think Campusano takes his spot in 2 years. Naylor was near the bottom of the Top 100 and I believe first in a depleted Marlins system when we acquired him. The consensus worry about Naylor is will he hit for enough power to play 1st, even though the Padres play him in the OF because he's blocked by Hosmer. He's more fleet of foot than Franmil but he's likely headed down a similar path. His body type doesn't age well. Jury is still out. Now we have Trammell, pretty much no one thinks he's a CFer, except the Padres. As Buey has brought up if he has to move to LF, it will hurt roster construction. If he's the next Carl Crawford, it won't matter.

You know as well as everyone else that productive pre-arb players are worth their weight in gold, which is why the Astros aren't trading Forrest Whitley. That's the entire point of the article, the ones that are traded are overwhelmingly unproductive. Which is why it always raises eyebrows. Another note, the article was written last year, so all the technology you site is already well known. Which is why the article mentions the wearable tech, it's likely where the next information gap lies.

Comment

Naylor was not a top 100 anything neither was Paddack for that matter...both became top 100 as Padres...

... and neither was Framil Reyes; he never even made the Padres top 30 list, and was left unprotected in his rule 5 draft, and 29 other teams said "not worth it".

So, I guess Framil, too, was "yet another" AJP "failure", as far as a few of the fans here are concerned, right? I mean, the guy was so bad defensively that Preller had to pay another team three prospects just to get rid of him.
/sarcasm