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BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Lidia Advisory Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142017
300 AM MDT Fri Sep 01 2017
...LIDIA'S CENTER JUST OFFSHORE THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA SUR...
...HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE OVER SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR...
SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.8N 111.0W
ABOUT 50 MI...85 KM WSW OF LA PAZ MEXICO
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM SE OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
The government of Mexico has extended the Tropical Storm Warning on
the west coast of the Baja California peninsula northward to San
Jose de Las Palomas, on the east coast northward to Isla San
Luis, and along the coast of mainland Mexico northward to Puerto
Libertad.
The government of Mexico has discontinued the Hurricane Watch for
Baja California Sur, as well as the Tropical Storm Warning south of
Altata on the coast of mainland Mexico.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Baja California peninsula from San Jose de Las Palomas to Isla
San Luis
* Mainland Mexico from Altata to Puerto Libertad
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
Interests elsewhere in western Mexico and the Baja California
peninsula should monitor the progress of Lidia.
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lidia was
located near latitude 23.8 North, longitude 111.0 West. Lidia is
moving toward the northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this
direction with an increase in forward speed is expected through
Saturday night. On the forecast track, the center of Lidia will
move near or along the west coast of the Baja California peninsula
through Saturday and then move west of the peninsula over the
Pacific waters Saturday night.
Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Weakening is forecast during the next couple of days while
Lidia interacts with the mountainous terrain of the Baja California
peninsula. Lidia is expected to become a remnant low by Saturday
night.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195 miles (315 km),
especially to the northeast and southeast of the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 987 mb (29.15 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Lidia is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
6 to 12 inches across the Mexican states of Baja California Sur into
Baja California, Sinaloa, and the coastal section of Sonora, with
isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches. These rains may cause
life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. Some of the tropical
moisture from Lidia may reach parts of the Desert Southwest this
holiday weekend, including southern California, southern Nevada, and
southwestern Arizona.
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring over the southern
portion of Baja California Sur at this time. These conditions
should spread northward across the warning areas of the Baja
California peninsula and mainland Mexico through Saturday. Wind
speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains are
often up to 30 percent stronger than the near-surface winds
indicated in this advisory, and in some elevated locations could be
even greater.
STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce coastal
flooding in areas of onshore winds on the southern portion of Baja
California Sur. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by
large and destructive waves.
SURF: Swells generated by Lidia are affecting portions of the coast
of southwestern and western Mexico and southern portions of Baja
California Sur, and could cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 600 AM MDT.
Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT.
$$
Forecaster Berg
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Tropical Depression Nine-E Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092017
1000 AM CDT Fri Jul 21 2017
Early visible satellite images and recent microwave data indicate
that the disturbance that NHC has been tracking for the past few
days over the far eastern Pacific has gained enough convective
organization and circulation to be designated a tropical depression.
The low-level center is difficult to precisely locate, but is
estimated to be under the area of deep convection and east of
a developing cyclonically curved band. Dvorak estimates are 2.0 and
1.5 from TAFB and SAB, respectively.
The initial intensity has been set at 30 kt, but environmental
conditions are very favorable for the depression to become a
tropical storm later today or Saturday and then a hurricane. Most
of the intensity models agree with this scenario and so does the
official forecast which follows the consensus quite close.
The depression appears to be moving toward the west or 280 degrees
at about 12 kt. The cyclone is well embedded within a persistent
deep-layer flow associated with a subtropical ridge extending from
Mexico westward across the Pacific. This flow pattern is not
expected to change much, keeping the cyclone on the same general
track well south of the coast of Mexico during the next five days.
The NHC forecast is basically in the middle of the guidance envelope
and very close to the multi-model consensus TVCN.
This is the 5th tropical cyclone in the eastern Pacific basin during
this very busy July.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 21/1500Z 9.0N 93.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 22/0000Z 9.4N 95.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 22/1200Z 10.0N 98.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 23/0000Z 10.9N 100.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 23/1200Z 12.2N 101.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 24/1200Z 14.5N 104.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 25/1200Z 16.0N 108.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 26/1200Z 17.0N 112.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
$$
Forecaster Avila
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000
WTPZ43 KNHC 122033
TCDEP3
Tropical Storm Calvin Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032017
400 PM CDT Mon Jun 12 2017
The cloud pattern of the tropical cyclone has become a little better
organized today, with a convective band wrapping about halfway
around the southern portion of the circulation. Accordingly,
Dvorak T-numbers from both TAFB and SAB have increased to 2.5,
corresponding to an intensity of 35 kt. On this basis, the system
is being named. Although a little more intensification is possible
before the center crosses the coast, no significant increase in
strength is anticipated. After landfall, the tropical cyclone will
likely weaken rapidly over the mountainous terrain of southeastern
Mexico.
Although the system essentially stalled earlier today, visible
satellite images and the Puerto Angel radar from the meteorological
service of Mexico indicate that a slow west-northwestward motion
has resumed, and the motion is now about 300/02 kt. Although
steering currents remain weak, the dynamical models indicate that
there should be enough mid-level ridging to the north of Calvin to
push the system west-northwestward into southeastern Mexico. The
official track forecast is close to the latest ECMWF solution.
The main danger from Calvin will come from heavy rains, and the
associated threats of flash flooding and mudslides, particularly in
areas of mountainous terrain.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 12/2100Z 15.5N 95.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 13/0600Z 15.8N 96.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 13/1800Z 16.0N 96.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
36H 14/0600Z 16.2N 97.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 14/1800Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Pasch

000
WTPZ41 KNHC 121441
TCDEP1
HURRICANE ORLENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162016
800 AM PDT MON SEP 12 2016
Satellite images and an earlier GMI microwave overpass show
a ragged cloud-filled eye with deep convective curved bands in the
eastern half of Orlene's circulation. A blend of the subjective
and objective satellite intensity estimates yield an initial
intensity of 80 kt for this advisory. Some additional strengthening
is forecast during the next 12-24 hours before Orlene moves into
the southern extent of a more stable and dry northeastern Pacific
air mass. Consequently, a gradual weakening trend should commence
at that time. The official forecast is basically an update of the
previous advisory and sides with the IVCN multi-model consensus.
The initial motion is estimated to be northwestward, or 320/5kt.
The cyclone is expected to turn north-northwestward later tonight,
then more northward on Tuesday, as it moves south of an amplifying
mid- to upper-level trough approaching the west coast of the United
States. By mid-period, high pressure is forecast to become
reestablished to the north of the hurricane as the aforementioned
trough lifts northeastward. This change in the synoptic steering
pattern should result in a turn toward the west with an acceleration
in forward motion.
The tropical-storm-force wind radii have been adjusted based on an
earlier CIRA AMSU wind estimate.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 12/1500Z 17.4N 119.3W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 13/0000Z 18.1N 119.6W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 13/1200Z 18.8N 119.7W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 14/0000Z 19.1N 119.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 14/1200Z 19.3N 120.3W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 15/1200Z 19.1N 122.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 16/1200Z 18.7N 127.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 17/1200Z 18.7N 131.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
$$
Forecaster Roberts

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TROPICAL STORM ORLENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162016
800 PM PDT SUN SEP 11 2016
Visible, infrared, and microwave satellite imagery indicate that the
cyclone has continued to become more organized, with a well-defined
low- to mid-level eye noted in a 2336Z SSMI/S overpass. Orlene now
has a large, circular CDO along with a symmetrical and expanding
upper-level outflow pattern. Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB
and SAB are a consensus T3.5/55 kt while the objective UW-CIMSS ADT
is 60-65 kt. Given the rather large average eye diameter of about 35
nmi, the initial intensity is set below the ADT values and follows
the subjective estimate of 55 kt.
The initial motion is 305/08 kt based heavily on microwave eye
position estimates. Although there is some divergence in the models,
they are good agreement overall on Orlene gradually slowing down
and moving north-northwestward and northward into a break in the
subtropical ridge during the next 48 hours. After that, the break in
the ridge along 120W longitude is forecast to fill back in as a
shortwave trough lifts out quickly to the northeast. The
re-strengthening ridge to the north of Orlene is then expected to
accelerate the cyclone on a westward track on days 3-5. The new NHC
forecast track is essentially just an update and extension of the
previous advisory track, and lies close to a consensus of the
GFS-ECMWF model solutions.
Orlene is expected to remain in a very low-shear environment for the
next 72 hours, which typically favors rapid intensification.
However, the cyclone is also expected to remain embedded within a
fairly dry mid-level environment with humidity values of 50-55
percent. Given that Orlene has already developed a solid eyewall
structure, little if any dry air intrusions should be able to
penetrate into the eye in the short term. Based on the favorable
low-shear and already impressive outflow pattern, a period of rapid
intensification is forecast to occur for the next 24 hours, followed
by a leveling off in the intensity due to cooler waters and possible
cold upwelling occurring beneath the cyclone. By 48 hours and
beyond, gradual weakening is expected due to Orlene moving into a
considerably drier and more stable environment characterized by
mid-level humidities in the 20- to 30-percent range. The intensity
forecast remains near the upper end of the guidance envelope close
to the LGEM and Florida State Superensemble models, and is just a
little higher than the previous advisory.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 12/0300Z 16.6N 118.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 12/1200Z 17.3N 119.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 13/0000Z 18.0N 119.7W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 13/1200Z 18.6N 119.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 14/0000Z 19.0N 120.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 15/0000Z 19.2N 121.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 16/0000Z 18.9N 125.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 17/0000Z 18.9N 130.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
$$
Forecaster Stewart
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000
WTPZ45 KNHC 072034
TCDEP5
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE NEWTON DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152016
300 PM MDT WED SEP 07 2016
Although moderate rainfall is still occurring over portions of
southern Arizona and southwestern New Mexico, infrared satellite
imagery indicates that Newton is no longer producing organized deep
convection. In addition, there have been no surface reports of
sustained tropical-storm-force winds, and NWS WSR-88D radar data
from Tucson, Arizona, are only showing maximum winds of about 35 kt
at an elevation of 4000 feet. Therefore, Newton is being declared a
post-tropical remnant low with maximum winds of 30 kt. Based on the
data available to us at this time, we do not think that Newton moved
into southern Arizona as a tropical cyclone.
There have been some adjustments to the center position based on
visible imagery, but the initial motion still appears to be 015/16
kt. The remnant low, or the remnants of Newton, are expected to
turn northeastward during the next 12 hours before dissipation.
Wind speeds will continue to decrease the rest of today and tonight,
and the low-level circulation is likely to open up near the
Arizona/New Mexico border by tomorrow morning.
Heavy rainfall, with the potential for flash flooding, will continue
over portions of southeastern Arizona and southwestern New Mexico
through tonight. Consult statements from your local National
Weather Service office for possible flash flood warnings. The
Weather Prediction Center will continue to issue advisories on
Newton or its remnants as long as it poses a heavy rainfall and
flash flooding threat to the southwestern United States.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 07/2100Z 31.6N 111.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
12H 08/0600Z 32.9N 109.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 08/1800Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Berg