"It may be a brave opinion but I predict that Ubuntu Linux and Windows Vista are going to be the two operating systems that will take over the largest chunk of the desktop OS market during the next couple of years. This comparison is based on my experience with both systems during the last couple of weeks on two different computers."

As an Ubuntu user, I wish this article would be accurate, but Windows is ingrained into too many homes for Ubuntu (or any other Linux distro) to pose a serious risk anytime soon, let alone in just 3 years. I can see where in 10 years that there could be a real parity among the desktop OS's. But, for that to happen, you'd have to be able to run Windows applications seamlessly on top of Linux, or on top of Mac OS X for that matter. Until that is possible, then users will be unwilling to step out of their comfort zone to try anything different.

For instance, how many of you have friends or relatives that still call Internet Explorer "The Internet"? Also, if a friend calls you with a problem, and you ask them what version of Windows they use, they can't answer that question. Sometimes I'll get a answer like "Office 2000"!!

Microsoft won the war for the desktop a very long time ago, unfortunately. They produced something that users could use easily, and became comfortable with. They managed to get lucky by avoiding any serious risk by Apple, because people will refuse to buy a new computer just to try a different OS.

With where Linux stands, most people draw a blank when you say Linux. I've encouraged people to use Linux. I have given some Live CD's to friends to try out. They are excited for the first week and tend to ask me about using it, but after that week, the excitement kinda goes away.

Now, does any of this rant of mine mean that MS Windows will always remain the dominant desktop force? No. Both Apple and some of the Linux distros really have a chance. And, as much as I dislike Apple and their vendor lock-in that they force, they have a better shot at easing their ways into the average Joe's home than Ubuntu, Fedora, Suse, or any other distro at the moment.