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6) Estimated & Model density What can be the reason? - Current atmospheric models are statistical and do not allow a short term prediction for a give altitude. (Space Weather Effects Catalogue, ESWS, 2001) MSISE-90 density Real density MSISE-90 density Real density

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4. Summary Satellite Drag and Dst have similar patterns. Satellite Drag started with the solar flare at the same time and then has a peak 1 day later. (the best cross correlation at 1-day time delay prediction of satellite drag ) MSISE-90 model density and Drag also have similar patterns. MSISE-90 do not allow a short term (such as storms) prediction

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5. Further work 1. Investigate more events in long term 2. Examine other factors associated with Satellite Drag ex) Proton flux, AE index, etc 3. Compare the Drag with empirical high atmosphere models such as NRLMSISE-00.