Ryan Pace and Matt Nagy have tried to build the 2018 Chicago Bears offense to be like those Nagy’s mentor Andy Reid had success with in the past. But they may have stumbled into something very different and entirely more fascinating. If Kevin White and Anthony Miller are both able to continue to play at the level they have in the early days of training camp, the Bears won’t have a choice but to put both on the field. That could change the entire offense.

While generally thought of as an offense that spreads the ball around, that hasn’t really been the case. In five years, Reid’s Chiefs have averaged:

19.6% of their targets to the top receiver

18% to the pass-catching tight end

16.9% to running backs

Those numbers mostly held up with Doug Pederson in Philadelphia. His Eagles averaged:

20.5% of their targets to the top receiver

18.6% to the pass-catching tight end

15% to running backs

Where it gets interesting, however, is when you look at the other positions. There you will find very little consistency.

There’s been a good deal of talk this offseason about how the Bears will model their offense after the Kansas City Chiefs, which makes sense given that new head coach Matt Nagy spent his last several years in Kansas City learning from Andy Reid.

But I think Chicago’s offense will end up looking more similar to what Philadelphia has run the last two years under Doug Pederson, another branch on the Reid coaching tree. Even though both offenses are similar, there are some subtle yet important differences that are worth looking at. So today I want to start by looking at personnel to see which one Chicago matches better, and then I’ll compare and contrast offensive styles.

Personnel

Kansas City’s offense was built around three main producers: running back Kareem Hunt, wide receiver Tyreek Hill, and tight end Travis Kelce. Those three combined for 4,069 of Kansas City’s 6,007 yards from scrimmage, meaning they were about 2/3 of the offense.

Quite frankly, the Bears just aren’t built to be that reliant on a small number of players. Outside of Jordan Howard and Allen Robinson, nobody has been a high-volume producer, and even Robinson has only hit 1,000 yards in a season once in his four years.

Did the team know? If they did, how can this not get publicly reported all season? Was Jeffery never even PROBABLE with a rotator cuff tear? He was just 100%, good-to-go? If you have a torn rotator cuff, that injury is not one that can’t be hampered more severely in-game.

Why did Jeffery play? Cash. The league made it very clear to Jeffery’s team they did not believe he could either (a) stay healthy or (b) play through pain? This season he proved he (a) can’t stay healthy and (b) can play through pain. But what will the long-term ramifications be of his playing hurt to get a lucrative extension? We’ll know more in September and beyond.

There’s been a lot of talk about Jeffery leaving Chicago because the Bears would not pay him. That talk is incorrect. I urge people to go back and read some actual reporting in this space that detailed what Jeffery was offered and how things turned out.

NFL Loves High School Coaches Now

A nice new twist the NFL is doing this year for players accepting an invite to the draft: Bringing the player’s high school coach with them, all expenses paid.