]]>With the Twins on the verge of clinching a postseason berth, they’ve got some housekeeping to take care of. They’re already on track to have Ervin Santana pitch the Wild Card game next Tuesday, so that’s the first order of business already handled. They should also give a breather to guys like Brian Dozier, Joe Mauer, Byron Buxton and Max Kepler. Clinch first, then figure out rest schedules after that.

They’ll also have to finalize their postseason roster, which makes for a fun time of year. Not for everyone, of course. Inevitably, somebody who believes he should be on the postseason roster will be left off as a preferential decision over strategy.

Here are a few of my thoughts on the postseason roster for the Minnesota Twins.

1. What did other teams do?

I wanted to let recent history inform me a little bit here. After studying the current makeup of the club, I had my hunch as to how I’d assemble a roster for the Wild Card game. I wanted to make sure I wasn’t way off, though, so I looked toward the 2015 and 2016 American League Wild Card teams and how they built their one-game roster. (Note: Teams that win the Wild Card game can reset their roster for the Division Series.)

The 2016 Blue Jays had 10 pitchers (including 3 starters and a long guy) and 15 position players , including 2 catchers. The Orioles that year had 10 pitchers (2 reserve starters: Ubaldo Jimenez and Dylan Bundy) and 15 position players (2 catchers). Don’t remind O’s manager Buck Showalter that one of those pitchers was one of the best relievers in baseball, Zach Britton, who went unused as the Orioles lost a game in extra innings.

The 2015 Astros had 9 pitchers (2 starters) and 16 position players (2 catchers, including Jason Castro). The Yankees that year had 9 pitchers (3 starters, including Masahiro Tanaka and Luis Severino) and 16 position players (3 catchers, including John Ryan Murphy).

The basic lesson from these four teams is about what I’d expected. You don’t need to bring all of your starters along for the ride. With the luxury of 25 roster spots, though, you want to make sure you have enough pitching in reserve so that you don’t get in trouble in the case of a short start or an extra-inning game.

I’ve heard people debating the merit of guys like Vargas and Granite, but to me it’s really simple. The size of the roster allows you to have a guy like Vargas, who can pinch hit and hit a home run, as well as a guy like Granite, who can pinch-run late in games, and whom you should trust to back up all three outfield positions.

Total so far: 13.

3. Which pitchers are you definitely bringing?

Well, let’s start with Tuesday’s likely starter, Ervin Santana. You’re obviously counting on some innings from him. You also have to build the rest of your one-game pitching staff to protect against the risk that he might not go deep into the game. So I think the right call is to have at least 3 starters on the roster, which is similar to each of the past 4 A.L. Wild Card teams mentioned earlier.

The locks, for me, would be Santana, J.O. Berrios and Kyle Gibson. Berrios and Gibson might not be on regular rest to pitch a full starter’s load of innings. But in an absolute pinch, I think you’d rather ask them to throw a couple of innings on a bullpen day, rather than turn to the 8th-most trusted reliever in an extra-inning game.

On the bullpen, it’s been clear for a little while that manager Paul Molitor has a pecking order of bullpen arms. Just look at the way he uses his relievers when the Twins are up by a run or two late in games—and look at the guys he asks to pitch when the Twins are down 5 in the middle innings. The way I read the situation, the Twins are high on Matt Belisle, Trevor Hildenberger, lefty Taylor Rogers and Alan Busenitz as the trusted late-game quartet. So let’s for sure start with those guys. And then I think the Twins likely would include the electric but sometimes erratic Ryan Pressly, as well as the next lefty in the bullpen, Buddy Boshers.

Total so far: 22.

4. No Sano.

One guy you probably won’t have to factor in for the Wild Card roster is Miguel Sano. His late-August stress reaction injury in his shin might turn out to be season-ending. There was some fear in the clubhouse of that reality at the time it happened, but from the front office and the manager’s chair, there was a sense of optimism that it was possible Sano – and the Twins — would catch a break and the big guy would be able to work his way back into the lineup.

At this point, that doesn’t appear likely to happen soon. The last I’ve heard, Sano has been unable to get through hitting and on-field running without experiencing some soreness and swelling the following day. And then there’s the uncomfortable reality that for a guy who already featured a great deal of swing-and-miss as part of his powerful offensive arsenal, how realistic is it to expect that he’ll be ready to face postseason pitching even with a leg at or near 100% healthy?

It’s a tough blow for the Twins, and for Sano. But it hasn’t slowed down Minnesota’s offense anywhere near as much as you might think. The Twins lost their best hitter, and yet they’ve still been one of the best offenses in baseball in the second half of the season. Eduardo Escobar won’t make you forget about Sano by any means, but his power surge has helped keep the offense humming, as stars like Joe Mauer and Brian Dozier, and young players like Byron Buxton, Eddie Rosario and Jorge Polanco have powered the team almost all the way to the postseason.

5. Borderline cases.

There were several players on the current roster that I eliminated almost immediately, at least for the one-game Wild Card scenario. I don’t think relievers Gabriel Moya or Michael Tonkin will pitch for the Twins in the postseason, and I don’t know what role you’d find this year for depth pitchers like Aaron Slegers and Nik Turley. And Niko Goodrum had a good season in the minor leagues and adds as much positional flexibility as anybody. I considered him for this roster, but chose instead to get another pitcher on the staff instead of a bench player that might not factor into the action.

So after picking the starters, relievers, and position players that I knew I’d want to include, I had 3 roster spots left to hand out.

I gave one spot to Mitch Garver, because he provides added catcher insurance, and he could be a pinch-hitting option late in the game. He hasn’t been used much in the Majors, but his minor league numbers were strong and I think he has a future with this team.

With two spots left there are 5 players I haven’t mentioned yet: Adalberto Mejia, Bartolo Colon, Dillon Gee, Glen Perkins, John Curtiss and Tyler Duffey. I’m taking out Curtiss for this exercise, since the Twins haven’t really used him in big spots in the Majors this year. Gee has been a long reliever for the most part, except for when he briefly was a starter. He’s only pitched once after the 6th inning for the Twins this season, and since I’ve included extra starters as optional length, I left Gee off the roster. He hasn’t given up a run since Sept. 1, so I could see including him on a Division Series roster if you think you need the protection.

September wasn’t a great month for Duffey, but I think he’s a guy you could see on the Wild Card roster. 20 of his 53 appearances this year have come with the Twins holding a 1- or 2-run lead, or in tie games.

The final spot gave me some trouble. I tried to decide between Colon, Perkins, Mejia and Goodrum. If we followed the mold from the past 4 A.L. Wild Card teams, it would have been Goodrum. If the Twins wanted to reward a veteran who worked his way back from a significant surgery, Perkins would be the guy. If they wanted to reward Colon for his contributions to the postseason appearance, he could be a consideration. But I don’t think this should be about feel-good stories. Every decision should be made with winning one as the primary factor.

I think Mejia fits the bill here. Sure, it’s unconventional to have 4 starting pitchers on the roster for a one-game playoff. Some teams in the past have employed a lefty starter as bullpen insurance – like the Blue Jays with Francisco Liriano last year, who won the game against the Orioles in extra innings. I don’t know what to expect from Mejia in a short relief stint at this point in the season. But if you want three lefties on the Wild Card roster, I think he’s the next logical choice after Rogers and Boshers.

This roster has 11 pitchers and 14 position players. That’s heavy on the pitching side, but given the starting lineup of position players for the Twins, and the capable backups at each position, I think it’s the right play for the current construction of their roster.

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]]>http://www.1500espn.com/twins-2/2017/09/wetmores-5-thoughts-close-clinching-thoughts-twins-postseason-roster/feed/1http://www.1500espn.com/twins-2/2017/09/wetmores-5-thoughts-close-clinching-thoughts-twins-postseason-roster/BONUS Touch ‘Em All: The Twins are about to clinch a trip to the MLB postseasonhttp://feedproxy.google.com/~r/1500espn/sportswire/twins/~3/KKeTdmNiNcw/
http://www.1500espn.com/touch-em-all/2017/09/bonus-touch-em-twins-clinch-trip-mlb-postseason/#respondTue, 26 Sep 2017 14:45:59 +0000http://www.1500espn.com/?p=432727With the Twins’ magic number down to 3 as of this recording (and now down to 2 after the Angels lost), we’re getting a little ahead of ourselves. The Twins are about to clinch a…

]]>http://www.1500espn.com/touch-em-all/2017/09/bonus-touch-em-twins-clinch-trip-mlb-postseason/feed/0http://www.1500espn.com/touch-em-all/2017/09/bonus-touch-em-twins-clinch-trip-mlb-postseason/Depue: 5 keys for the Twins as they try to secure a playoff spot in Clevelandhttp://feedproxy.google.com/~r/1500espn/sportswire/twins/~3/CFJBzW_Vpsg/
http://www.1500espn.com/twins-2/2017/09/depue-5-keys-twins-try-secure-playoff-spot-cleveland/#commentsTue, 26 Sep 2017 03:24:19 +0000http://www.1500espn.com/?p=432698On Sunday, the Twins finished off a 4-game sweep of Detroit with a 10-4 win, pummeling the Tigers’ bullpen for a fourth consecutive game. As depleted as Detroit is, it’s never easy to sweep a…

]]>On Sunday, the Twins finished off a 4-game sweep of Detroit with a 10-4 win, pummeling the Tigers’ bullpen for a fourth consecutive game. As depleted as Detroit is, it’s never easy to sweep a team on the road. The Twins, though, thoroughly dominated the Tigers, outscoring them 39-12 while playing strong defense throughout.

With the Angels, Rangers and Royals all struggling, the Twins suddenly find themselves with a 5-game lead over Anaheim in the A.L. wild card race as of Tuesday afternoon, and a magic number of two. Things couldn’t have gone much better for the Twins, and they now find themselves on the precipice of an unlikely playoff berth.

Now, the level of competition rises considerably, as they take on arguably the best team in baseball, and certainly the hottest. Cleveland won 22 in a row over August and September, has won 29 of their last 31 overall, and trail the Dodgers by just one game for the best record in baseball. As the Twins look to clinch a playoff berth, here are five keys to their series with the Indians.

1. Win one game

Yes, one of my keys to the series is to win a game, and yes, I recognize how ridiculous that is. It’s a bit reminiscent of the “keys to the game” graphics you sometimes see in NFL broadcasts, where they say things like “score a lot of points” and “catch the ball.” So, feel free to rip me in the comments, but let me explain why I think it’s really important the Twins find a way to take at least one game in this series.

Anecdotally and on social media, most Twins fans seem to think a wild card spot is locked up. I get it, of course. They’re in a great position, and the Angels losing on Monday only makes that position stronger. But to think it’s over is to ignore both recent, and more distant, history. Let’s start with just this past week. When the Twins lost to New York Wednesday, they left the field with a one-game lead in the wild card race. By the end the week, that lead had ballooned to 4.5 games in just four days. Eight years ago, in 2009, the Twins were three back of Detroit in the Central with four games to play, and came back to win the division. The year before that, in 2008, they made up 2.5 games on the White Sox in the final six days of the season, before losing to them in Game 163.

My point is not to try to play the panic card or ignore the math, but to simply point out that leads can shift quickly. It’s not inconceivable that the Angels could take the last three of their series with the White Sox, who are currently 28 games below .500. If that was coupled with an Indians sweep of the Twins, Minnesota would find themselves with just a two-game lead heading into the final weekend.

Win just one game in Cleveland, and all of this is probably a non-issue. So, how can they actually do that?

2. Keep Bartolo Colon on a short leash

In my series preview for the Detroit series, I wrote about the importance of not letting Adalberto Mejia go too long if he got into trouble against the lefty-mashing Tigers. Paul Molitor did exactly that, pulling Mejia one out shy of completing five innings despite giving up just one run against the Tigers. Molitor played matchups, and it worked out for the Twins.

Mejia is a rookie, and Molitor may be inclined to give more leash to the 44-year-old Colon if he gets into trouble, but in my view that’d be a mistake. Colon has been a great story, and has given the Twins much-needed stability at the back-end of the rotation. His numbers since joining the Twins, though, aren’t great. In 72.2 IP, Colon has a 5.33 ERA, and opponents are hitting .309/.339/.559 against him with 16 home runs.

Colon matches up well against poor offenses, in part because his walk rate is extremely low. He forces teams to swing the bat, and with one of the best defenses in the league behind him, that’s translated well when he faces low-scoring teams. Against good offenses, though, it’s a different story. Since joining the Twins, here’s how Colon’s faired against teams in the top half of the league in runs scored versus teams in the bottom half:

Top Half Bottom Half

IP 32.1 40.1

ERA 6.68 4.24

HR 11 5

Cleveland, of course, has a very good offense, ranking fifth in baseball in runs scored. It’s not a great matchup for Colon, and with a well-rested bullpen, pulling him fairly early if he struggles might be the smart play.

3. Jump on Josh Tomlin and Danny Salazar early

Cleveland’s first starter of the series, Josh Tomlin, has fairly pedestrian numbers. Tomlin has a 4.98 ERA, 1.273 WHIP and 6.8 K/9 in 132 IP. Wednesday’s starter, Danny Salazar, has better overall numbers, but has struggled recently. On the year, Salazar has a 4.48 ERA, 1.383 WHIP and 12.4 K/9. Since mid-August, though, he has a 9.00 ERA and opponents are hitting .348/.434/.522 against him. Salazar is back in the rotation after getting demoted to the bullpen in early September. Both Tomlin and Salazar, it should be noted, are right-handed, and the Twins have mashed right-handed pitching all season.

If the Twins are going to win those games, they’re probably going to have to jump on Tomlin and Salazar early, because Cleveland’s bullpen is really good. The Indians’ ‘pen has a combined ERA of 2.84, ranking first in the majors. Perhaps even more impressively, they’ve done that despite their top reliever, Andrew Miller, missing nearly all of August and the first half of September with a knee injury. Miller’s back now, and hasn’t given up a run in five appearances since his return. Simply put, Cleveland has a great bullpen, and Terry Francona, in my opinion, manages a ‘pen better than anyone in the game. Speaking of…

4. Continue employing the Francona-style of bullpen management

I love everything about Francona’s bullpen management. He’s not afraid to go to his ‘pen early, makes frequent changes based on matchups, and uses his “ace” reliever, Andrew Miller, in the most high-leverage spots, rather than saving him for the ninth inning.

As the season’s gone on, Paul Molitor’s increasingly done the same thing, particularly since Brandon Kintzler was traded. Molitor doesn’t have the embarrassment of riches in the ‘pen that Francona does, but he’s been using his chips in a similar fashion. That was evident in Thursday’s Mejia start, when he brought in righty Dillon Gee to face Miguel Cabrera with a man on and two outs in the fifth. Trevor Hildenberger’s assumed the Andrew Miller role, often being used in the seventh and eighth innings when the game’s on the line.

Molitor’s come under fire in comments sections for some for his bullpen management, but in my view he’s become increasingly more flexible in when he’s willing to use his best guys. It helps that relievers like Hildenberger, Alan Busenitz and Matt Belisle have pitched well in their roles, of course, but in my opinion Molitor’s done really a nice job of keeping the ‘pen afloat after it lost its best reliever at the trade deadline.

5. Max Kepler’s health

I don’t know the severity of Max Kepler’s hip/lower back injury, but based on their public quotes the Twins didn’t seem to think it was a big deal, and Kepler indicated he was available off the bench Sunday. If Kepler is indeed fine, he could be a big factor. The Indians are starting three righties—Tomlin, Salazar, Carlos Carrasco—in the series, and except for Miller, their top relievers are all right-handed. Kepler, of course, crushes right-handed pitching. He also has eight career home runs against the Indians–his highest versus any opponent–and had a three-home run game at Progressive Field last year. If Kepler’s injury is more serious than the Twins have suggested, getting him healthy for the wild card game is the first priority, of course. But if he’s available, his bat could make an impact against Cleveland’s pitching staff.

]]>http://www.1500espn.com/twins-2/2017/09/depue-5-keys-twins-try-secure-playoff-spot-cleveland/feed/4http://www.1500espn.com/twins-2/2017/09/depue-5-keys-twins-try-secure-playoff-spot-cleveland/Wetmore’s 5 thoughts: With his glove and his bat, Joe Mauer has been great this year for the Twinshttp://feedproxy.google.com/~r/1500espn/sportswire/twins/~3/UQMjur8Nvso/
http://www.1500espn.com/twins-2/2017/09/wetmores-5-thoughts-glove-bat-joe-mauer-great-year-twins/#commentsSun, 24 Sep 2017 23:38:59 +0000http://www.1500espn.com/?p=431049The Twins wouldn’t be where they are today — within a few games of clinching an improbably postseason berth — if it wasn’t for Joe Mauer. True, the same can be said of at least…

]]>The Twins wouldn’t be where they are today — within a few games of clinching an improbably postseason berth — if it wasn’t for Joe Mauer.

True, the same can be said of at least a half-dozen Twins players on the current roster. Mauer and Glen Perkins are the only two players that were in a Twins uniform the last time the team was in a position to play meaningful games in October.

This is the best Mauer’s been since 2013, his last great season—the one that ended early when a concussion brought a premature finish to his season and also forced him out from behind the plate. This season, the oldest Twins position player is hitting .307/.384/.421, which is within spitting distance of his career batting numbers: .308/.391/.444.

He’s a shoo-in for the Twins Hall of Fame. The other Hall of Fame, the bigger one, is a stickier conversation, and that’s for another day. It looked a year ago like Mauer’s body would force him to quietly fade into the sunset in the final two seasons of his megacontract, which runs through next year. Now, with the postseason approaching and the Twins increasingly likely to be part of it, Mauer has turned back the clock.

Especially lately, as the Twins have been without star slugger Miguel Sano, Mauer’s been excellent at doing his part to pick up the slack. He had 3 hits on Aug. 10, so I’m going to cheat and use that as the first day of his hot streak, cherry-picking a day to make his stats looks as impressive as possible. Dating back to that Aug. 10 game, Mauer’s hitting .388/.430/.527, and the Twins have been one of the best offenses in baseball.

Here’s a mess of Joe Mauer stats and observations.

1. His defense at first base has been exceptional this season.

He makes three types of players that catch your attention. The first is saving his infield teammates from throwing errors. He’s got 24 scoops this season, according to FanGraphs, and while you expect your first baseman to scoop a ball out of the dirt, you don’t necessarily expect that he’ll make all of those plays. Mauer’s also been really good at the diving-stop plays, judging which balls are within his range, and then sure-handedly picking them up for outs, often making the play look routine even though it’s not. Lastly, he’s been really impressive hunting fly balls in foul territory and tracking them down for outs. In my personal opinion — and yes, I’ve watched Mauer more than other first basemen so there’s probably some bias baked in here — Mauer should win the American League Gold Glove award.

2. He’s hitting the ball hard again.

FanGraphs.com tracks the rate of “hard” contact, and Mauer’s made a big jump forward this year, after he made weaker contact the past three years–statistically and anecdotally.

Mauer’s making hard contact 36.7% of the time, per FanGraphs, and that’s up from 31.3% last year. The year before he was at 29.8% and the year before that 28.0%. It’s not just the rate of hard contact. He’s smoking the ball this year, and especially lately. Although it used to be the norm, we haven’t seen an extended run like this from Mauer in years.

When Mauer connects with a pitch and sends it into fair territory, those balls leave his bat at an average speed of 90.1 mph. His average exit velocity is 2nd on the Twins, according to Baseball Savant, behind only Miguel Sano (92.8 mph). He ranks 31st in baseball in that category, nestled in between Robinson Cano and Ryan Braun.

3. He’s a great hitter with 2 strikes.

For this factoid, I owe a tip of the cap to the fine folks at Twins Radio, who pointed out that Mauer has more 2-strike hits than anybody in baseball. Here’s the leaderboard entering Sunday, which Mauer led with 77 two-strike hits, before he added another in Sunday’s win.

Anecdotally it adds up. I’m not sure I’ve ever seen a hitter more comfortable taking strike one if he doesn’t like the pitch. The way it’s always been explained to me is that you’ve got to be really comfortable hitting with 2 strikes if you’re willing to routinely let Strike 1 go by without offering. If you’re pitching on another team facing Joe Mauer this year, and you get ahead of him in the count 0-2 … he’s still been a .318 hitter.

With guys on base this year, Mauer’s hit .319/.425/.446. With teammates in scoring position, he’s upped that to .331/.461/.466. Versus lefties, versus righties, it hardly matters. He’s one of the most clutch hitters on the Twins this year.

Maybe this shouldn’t be surprising, but it caught me off guard. When Joe Mauer gets ahead in the count, he’s hard to beat. When he’s ahead of the pitcher this season, he’s hitting .290/.481/.420, according to Baseball Reference. A .481 on-base percentage is incredible. So the lesson to opposing hitters is simple: Don’t fall behind in the count.

He’s scored more runs in a Twins uniform than the great Rod Carew. He has more hits than the great Tony Oliva. And sometime next year, he’ll have a chance to surpass the great Harmon Killebrew in the number of times reaching base.

Last month I wrote about Mauer’s pursuit of the Killer. Killebrew reached base 3,072 times in his Twins career, excluding his Senators and Royals days. Mauer had 2 more hits Sunday, which pushes his on-base total to 2,891 with the Twins. And over the past four seasons, Mauer’s averaged getting on base 206 times a year. If he stays healthy he’ll have a real shot at tracking down Killebrew before his contract expires at the end of the 2018 season.

5. Mauer’s on track for the fourth-most games in his career.

He played in 137th game of the year on Sunday, a blowout win against the lowly Detroit Tigers. I’d expect the Twins to clinch a postseason berth sometime early this week, and once that happens, I think you can safely rest guys like Mauer, Brian Dozier, Byron Buxton and a few others. Maybe give Mauer a couple DH days or something like that. Still, with 7 games to go, Mauer will probably wind up with at least 141 games, and he’s only topped that total 3 times: in 2008, 2012, 2015.

A grain of salt is needed here. Mauer was a catcher for much of his career, and catchers need more days off than other position players. But his bat was so good that he wound up as the Twins’ DH for a lot of the days that he didn’t put the gear on. Still, for a guy who seems to always be fighting his legs, knees and back to stay in the lineup, it’s impressive to have that kind of season at 34 years old. (He might have been in line for his second-most games if not for a back injury that landed him on the DL in July, forcing him from at least 6 games. But we won’t assign points for ‘would-be’ durability here.)

The durability and games-played mark is surprising in light of offseason talk about how manager Paul Molitor might look to find ways to sit Mauer on occasion. Not just to keep the veteran first baseman healthy, but also to shield him from some tough left-handed starting pitchers, since his numbers against lefties took a big dive last year. Indeed, there was some of that earlier this season, with Mauer on the bench against a good lefty. But you shouldn’t have to worry about that matchup problem in the postseason. Mauer’s basically erased that concern with his play this year.

Against lefties, Mauer’s hitting .305/.366/.375 this year, compared with his .308/.389/.437 against right-handed pitchers. I’m willing to guess you’d go to battle with Mauer against a lefty over a guy like Kennys Vargas at first base–especially since you can rest Mauer a little bit over the season’s final week.

Mauer bristled a bit when I asked him about the “part-time player” designation during spring training this year. He said on a February day in front of his corner clubhouse stall in Fort Myers that his goal is to win games, and added that “when I’m on the field, we have a better chance of doing that. If they feel that’s not the case, that’s baseball. But I think I do and I think a lot of people around here think that we probably have a better chance of winning if I’m on the field.”

The reaction from his critics at the time was, to paraphrase, ‘OK, so go prove it.’

Mauer has proved it this year. He’ll always have critics primarily because of his $23 million salary.

This season, though, the Twins’ first baseman has backed up those spring comments, he’s helped propel the Twins to a likely postseason appearance, and he could win another Gold Glove, this one at his new position.

If challenged in February to script the most optimistic season outcome for Mauer, it’s hard to imagine we’d have come up with that last paragraph.

Sign up for Derek Wetmore’s Baseball Insider e-newsletter

]]>http://www.1500espn.com/twins-2/2017/09/wetmores-5-thoughts-glove-bat-joe-mauer-great-year-twins/feed/2http://www.1500espn.com/twins-2/2017/09/wetmores-5-thoughts-glove-bat-joe-mauer-great-year-twins/‘Magic number’ for the Twins is 3: Would you rather face the Yankees or Red Sox?http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/1500espn/sportswire/twins/~3/ZdLrmHdFxqQ/
http://www.1500espn.com/twins-2/2017/09/magic-number-twins-6-rather-face-yankees-red-sox/#commentsSat, 23 Sep 2017 17:41:48 +0000http://www.1500espn.com/?p=430999The Twins are getting closer and closer to securing a postseason berth. It’s still looking a bit ahead to assume it’s going to happen, but looking ahead is half of the fun of writing about…

]]>The Twins are getting closer and closer to securing a postseason berth. It’s still looking a bit ahead to assume it’s going to happen, but looking ahead is half of the fun of writing about and talking about sports. (Looking back is the other half.)

I’ve been asked the question a number of times with some slight variation. I figured that with the Twins’ magic number* down to 3 games as of Saturday morning, it’s time to address the question in a column.

In a one-game Wild Card playoff game, would you rather face the Boston Red Sox or the New York Yankees? It comes down to a couple things for me.

1. Which is the better team?

The Red Sox entered Monday with a 5-game lead in the American League East, but Yankees manager Joe Girardi made a pretty clear statement last week that he intends to push Boston for that top spot. He did so by shuffling up his pitching rotation to let his young ace pitch one more time. More on that development in a moment. The Yankees, importantly, also hold a commanding lead in the Wild Card race. They’re 4.5 games up on the Twins as of this writing, and shouldn’t be worried about losing grip on that.

So, by record, the better team is the Red Sox. More consistent throughout the year, got better at the non-waiver trade deadline, and have an ace in Chris Sale at the top of their rotation, plus one of the best relievers in baseball in Craig Kimbrel.

The Yankees have a better run differential than every team in baseball except for the amazing Cleveland Indians. New York has outscored opponents this year by a total of 186 runs. The Red Sox check in at fourth in the American League with a +123 run differential. (The Twins, after toiling for most of the season deep into the negative territory, have erased that deficit and now are +8, meaning they’ve finally scored more runs than they’re allowed.)

The Yankees have 3 more games against the Blue Jays, a makeup game against the Royals, and a 3-game set at home against the Rays. The Red Sox have 3 left against the Blue Jays, and 4 against the Astros.

Boston’s magic number to edge out the Yankees is 3.

2. What are the Twins’ strengths and weaknesses. and does either team present a better “matchup.”

When I look at team-wide stats for the Twins these days, I typically separate it from before and after the all-star break. It just feels like a slightly different team to me. Before the break, it seemed like a novelty act that they were hanging around despite a bad run differential, and good for them for sending 3 guys to the all-star game after the same basic team lost 103 games the year earlier.

Since then, though, they’ve played great baseball for the most part, they’ve gained and lost a competent starter (Jaime Garcia), sold their veteran closer (Brandon Kintzler), lost their star slugger (Miguel Sano), and they just keep winning. They’ve paid down their debt and now have a positive run differential, and they’ve doing it with contributions from all over. Byron Buxton has emerged as a star; Kyle Gibson turned his year around; ditto for Jorge Polanco; Eddie Rosario has made huge strides; Max Kepler is finding his way; Brian Dozier and Joe Mauer have been as dependable as it gets on the veteran side of things; Matt Belisle and Trevor Hildenberger have done wonders for a bullpen that lost its most important member at the end of July. And on and on.

As a team, the Twins have one of the best offenses in the world since the all-star break. How does it compare with the Yankees and Red Sox?

Runs (AL Rank)

Home Runs

Team wOBA

Red Sox

308 (7)

66 (15)

.307 (14)

Yankees

334 (3)

90 (6)

.327 (7)

Twins

360 (1)

94 (4)

.341 (2)

In October, your offense is your offense. The advantage here seems to belong to the Twins.

I do think it’s important to note than in the postseason, pitching staffs get shorter. You count on your 4 best healthy starting pitchers, and anecdotally, 4 good relievers ought to get the job done most nights. If you’re on your fifth starter or the reliever you trust the fifth most, things probably aren’t going the way you’d hoped. Even with that in mind, I just took a bigger-picture snapshot of what each pitching staff has done collectively for the full 2017 season. That’s where the advantage clearly swings back to the Yankees and Red Sox.

Starting pitchers

ERA (AL Rank)

FIP

K%

BB%

HR/9

Red Sox

3.96 (2)

3.85 (2)

24.8% (2)

7.0% (2)

1.25 (3)

Yankees

3.98 (3)

4.16 (4)

23.5% (4)

7.2% (3)

1.38 (8)

Twins

4.78 (9)

4.90 (10)

18.0% (12)

8.0% (9)

1.48 (11)

Source: FanGraphs.com

Bullpen

ERA (AL Rank)

FIP

K%

BB%

HR/9

Red Sox

3.08 (2)

3.49 (3)

28.9% (1)

8.1% (4)

0.98 (5)

Yankees

3.40 (4)

3.42 (2)

26.6% (4)

10.0% (12)

0.89 (2)

Twins

4.48 (12)

4.49 (10)

19.8% (14)

7.9% (3)

1.29 (12)

Source: FanGraphs.com

In a one-game playoff, it doesn’t much matter how deep your staff is. What matters is the very top end of the pitching staff. In any case, I think the Twins will be outmatched in terms of total talent. But you don’t have to be the more talented team to win one game on one night.

3. Who’s pitching?

When Girardi bumped back Masahiro Tanaka so that Luis Severino could face the Twins, he did so with the idea that Severino could start 3 more games, instead of the 2 he’d been slated for if he skipped the Twins series. I charted out the rest of the year for the Yankees, and assuming theyr’e still in contention for the A.L. East, Severino would be scheduled to pitch Sept. 30. If yo’re the Yankees, that makes sense if you can still win the East. Why deal with a coin-flip one-game playoff series if you don’t have to? On the other hand, if you shoot for that moon and miss, you don’t land among the starts; if the Yankees start Severino on the final day of September and don’t win the division, they’ll be without one of the best pitchers in the American League for their win-or-go-home Wild Card game. We’ll see what happens there. If they’re out of it, I’d expect they’ll hang onto Severino to start that Wild Card game, rather than a relatively meaningless regular season game at the end of September.

On the Boston side, their ace Chris Sale will get at least one and maybe two more starts. If they clinch the division, I’d expect that they won’t need to use Sale two more times if they don’t want to. But if they’re in a fight to the finish for the A.L. East, Sale’s scheduled turn could be Sept. 30, which could in turn wipe him out for the Wild Card game, as well. It’s unlikely to happen, but it’s a possibility.

The Twins have one start against Severino in which they did fairly well in limited exposure; they have many starts against Sale. Sale’s the better pitcher, but he doesn’t seem to destroy them the way he does the rest of the baseball world. In 26 career games against the Sale, the Twins have hit .248/.294/.373, and he’s got a 4.21 ERA in about 120 innings. Those are good numbers for a pitcher, but compared with what Sale’s done to the rest of the league this year in a bid for the A.L. Cy Young award, those Twins numbers make Sale look relatively human.

The best-case scenario for the Twins? The Yankees and Red Sox duke it out until the final day, use up their aces, and have to start a lesser pitcher in a Wild Card game. Oh, and the Twins still have to get there.

*Magic number: The combined number of Twins wins and Angels losses required to mathematically guarantee a postseason berth. With three games left against the bad Detroit Tigers, I say it’s better to just take care of business on your own if you’re the Twins, rather than rely on a couple of other teams to keep losing.

]]>http://www.1500espn.com/twins-2/2017/09/magic-number-twins-6-rather-face-yankees-red-sox/feed/2http://www.1500espn.com/twins-2/2017/09/magic-number-twins-6-rather-face-yankees-red-sox/Wetmore: Answers to your mailbag Twins questions: Gibson, Mauer, team MVP, and Smash Mouthhttp://feedproxy.google.com/~r/1500espn/sportswire/twins/~3/aOBTWs8JDrY/
http://www.1500espn.com/twins-2/2017/09/wetmore-answers-mailbag-twins-questions-gibson-mauer-team-mvp-smash-mouth/#respondFri, 22 Sep 2017 21:30:57 +0000http://www.1500espn.com/?p=430995We opened up the floor for your social media questions, and answered them in the latest episode of the Touch ‘Em All podcast. Check that out on iTunes if you’re not already a subscriber. I…

]]>We opened up the floor for your social media questions, and answered them in the latest episode of the Touch ‘Em All podcast. Check that out on iTunes if you’re not already a subscriber. I also wanted to get some of these thoughts out in writing, since not everybody is going to listen to podcasts. (Plus, in my columns I don’t have to wait for Phil Mackey to finish talking to make my next point…)

In my mind, he has. I think it only matters if you get past the Yankees and into the Division Series. He’ll pitch Friday night and then I’ve got him penciled in to pitch one more time on Wednesday, the 27th, but that assumes the Twins will choose to skip Adalberto Mejia’s next turn in the rotation. That’s far from certain, it’s just what I’d do at this point in the season.

The most important thing is that Ervin Santana currently is lined up to start the Wild Card game, likely against the Yankees in New York. I can’t think of a better guy to take the ball that day for the Twins. This Gibson thing only becomes an issue if the Twins find a way to win that game. Wouldn’t that be a fun debate to have at that time, though?

Phil and I kicked around a couple names for this, and for me it’s been Joe Mauer. He’s been an absolute rock in their batting order, and I’m guessing he’ll win another Gold Glove this year, his first at his new position of first base. Other guys like Eddie Rosario and Brian Dozier also had great Augusts, and they need to be included in this discussion as well. What separates Buxton and Polanco, for me, is that they were two of the worst hitters in the big leagues before becoming two of the biggest reasons the Twins caught fire in August. I still like Polanco offensively more than I like him defensively; it’s hard not to like what Buxton’s game adds these days.

How do the Twins set up their rotation for the final Detroit series with the Wild Card game looming?

This is speculation on my part but I’d skip Mejia until you absolutely need him again. That means the final day of September. So the Detroit series would be Berrios-Mejia-Colon, leaving Santana available for the possible Wild Card game on Oct. 3. The off day on Sept. 25 would allow them to skip Mejia and keep their other starters on standard rest. I’d take advantage of that, which gives you Colon-Gibson-Santna against the Indians next week.

Don’t mess with it at this point. If Dozier likes hitting leadoff, just stick to it. I think we get too hung up on lineup construction sometimes (I’m guilty, too!). In general, put your good hitters at the top of the order and let them get on base and drive each other in. It’s a simple formula, but the lineup card has probably turned from a chore into a fun task for Paul Molitor lately. Dozier, Mauer, Buxton, Polanco, Rosario, even Kepler and Escobar and Grossman. There’s some upside all around, and a lot of the Twins’ hitters are performing really well right now. Just imagine what it would look like with a healthy Miguel Sano sitting there in the No. 3 spot…

Do you think Falvey is sandbagging this season because he wants to fire Molitor? He’s done nothing to help this team

Lastly, someone on my Facebook page asked who will be the Twins closer next year, and if Tyler Duffey and Ryan Pressly will have to earn their way onto the team. In short – and this is a great question for more future columns, mailbags, and podcasts – I believe that the Twins ought to go outside the organization for their next closer. Trevor Hildenberger has been a great find in the bullpen, and right now, to varying degrees, I think you also trust Matt Belisle, Taylor Rogers and Alan Busenitz. Duffey won’t be expensive next year but Pressly could be getting there (through arbitration raises).

I don’t have my short list done yet, but I think the closer for 2018 is not currently on the 40-man roster.

Sign up for Derek Wetmore’s Baseball Insider e-newsletter

]]>http://www.1500espn.com/twins-2/2017/09/wetmore-answers-mailbag-twins-questions-gibson-mauer-team-mvp-smash-mouth/feed/0http://www.1500espn.com/twins-2/2017/09/wetmore-answers-mailbag-twins-questions-gibson-mauer-team-mvp-smash-mouth/Are Twins still cursed by Yankees? Plus a mailbag (ep. 137)http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/1500espn/sportswire/twins/~3/P9VOLEiuZC4/
http://www.1500espn.com/touch-em-all/2017/09/twins-still-cursed-yankees-plus-mailbag-ep-137/#respondFri, 22 Sep 2017 02:24:51 +0000http://www.1500espn.com/?p=430957Before diving into your mailbag questions, Phil Mackey and Derek Wetmore discuss whether the Twins are still awestruck by the Yankees’ pinstripes. Or was this week’s sweep just an aberration? In the Q&A portion, who…

]]>Before diving into your mailbag questions, Phil Mackey and Derek Wetmore discuss whether the Twins are still awestruck by the Yankees’ pinstripes.

Or was this week’s sweep just an aberration? In the Q&A portion, who should be the Twins’ closer next year? Does Joe Mauer listen to Smashmouth? What should the stretch-run rotation look like? And much more!

]]>http://www.1500espn.com/touch-em-all/2017/09/twins-still-cursed-yankees-plus-mailbag-ep-137/feed/0http://www.1500espn.com/touch-em-all/2017/09/twins-still-cursed-yankees-plus-mailbag-ep-137/Depue: 5 keys for the Twins heading into a pivotal series in Detroithttp://feedproxy.google.com/~r/1500espn/sportswire/twins/~3/So3yFS6er8k/
http://www.1500espn.com/twins-2/2017/09/depue-5-keys-twins-heading-pivotal-series-detroit/#commentsThu, 21 Sep 2017 12:35:30 +0000http://www.1500espn.com/?p=430897The Yankees finished off a dominating sweep of the Twins at Yankee Stadium Wednesday, all but punching their ticket to the playoffs. With 10 games left, the Twins are trying to hold off the Angels…

]]>The Yankees finished off a dominating sweep of the Twins at Yankee Stadium Wednesday, all but punching their ticket to the playoffs. With 10 games left, the Twins are trying to hold off the Angels to claim the second wild card spot and get back to New York (or possibly Boston) for the wild card game. As of Wednesday afternoon, Minnesota holds a tenuous 1 game lead over Anaheim for the second spot.

The sweep in New York was disappointing, with the Twins not playing particularly good baseball in a huge series against an opponent that’s tormented them for a decade and a half. If we take a step back and look at the bigger picture, though, Twins fans should be excited about what lies ahead over the next week and a half.

The Twins are playing high stakes, critical games in late September as they try to claw their way into the postseason. I’d venture to guess that most fans would have taken that in spring training, and certainly at the trade deadline. So, as you’ve been forced to do so many times before, put a demoralizing Yankees series behind you and look ahead to what comes next.

With that in mind, here are five keys to taking at least 3 out of 4 from a depleted Tigers team that’s mostly just playing out the string.

1. Keep Adalberto Mejia on a short leash Thursday against the lefty-mashing Tigers

Detroit’s offense is middle-of-the-pack in the American League this year, but they absolutely mash left-handed pitching. Detroit has an .852 OPS against lefties this year, which is far-and-away the best in the American League. Those numbers suggest Thursday’s starter, Adalberto Mejia, could be in for a long day, and it’s incumbent on the Twins to make sure that day isn’t too long if he runs into trouble.

Given the plethora of right-handed relief options out of the pen, it makes sense to manage Thursday’s game similarly to a playoff game. If the Tigers jump on Mejia early, pulling him fairly quickly and patching together the game with a combination of right-handed long-relievers (Slegers, Gee) and one-inning guys (Hildenberger, Busenitz, Pressly, Belisle et al.) might be the best approach to keeping Detroit’s offense at bay. Bartolo Colon’s short start Wednesday does make that a bit more difficult, though.

2. Prioritize outfield defense

Detroit’s park is huge, which is an advantage for a Twins team that boasts the top outfield defense in the majors. That defense takes a step back, though, when Ehire Adrianza starts in place of Max Kepler against lefties. I think Adrianza’s handled himself well in the outfield, but Kepler’s certainly the superior defensive outfielder. Having his glove out there in a large park may be worth any potential downgrade offensively against left-handed pitching.

(One note here: It’s a bit of a tough break for the Twins that Bartolo Colon started Wednesday in the bandbox that is Yankee Stadium and not Comerica Park in Detroit. Colon gives up a ton of hard contact and fly ball outs, and I wonder if he would have fared a bit better with the spacious outfield in Detroit.)

3. Cut back on the late-inning bunting

Before I become the millionth person to weigh in on all the sac bunting, I’ll say this: I think Paul Molitor is a good manager who does a lot behind the scenes to improve the ballclub, and those things sometimes don’t get taken into account in evaluations of his performance. This can be expanded on in another article, but to keep it short, I think he deserves quite a bit of credit for taking a team with a poor pitching staff that sold at the deadline to the brink of the playoffs.

That said, I’m pretty much anti-bunt (especially sac bunt), and I think he bunts too much. Further, if you *are* going to sac bunt, some spots are better to do it than others, and I don’t think he always picks good spots.

Monday’s game is a good example. Down 2-1 in the eigth, the Twins were facing Dellin Betances. Betances has had major control problems all year (6.8 BB/9), and hit Robbie Grossman with the first pitch of the inning, before falling behind Zack Granite. In my opinion, you have to make Betances prove he can throw strikes before giving away an out in a game you’re losing. After Granite sac bunted, Betances walked Brian Dozier and Max Kepler before exiting. I have no idea how that inning would have played out had Molitor not bunted there, but I do think it’s poor process. I also think it’s poor process to bunt over a slow runner (Joe Mauer) who may not score on a hit to the outfield with your number three hitter, as he’s done a number of times.

4. Get the offense rolling again against bad starting pitching

It’s hard to knock the Twins too much offensively, because they’ve had one of the best offenses in baseball in the second half. They erupted for 13 runs on Sunday against Toronto, but have otherwise had poor offensive showings while losing five of their last six. Here are their run totals in those five losses: 3, 2, 1, 2, 3. That comes out to just 2.2 runs/game. Now, I’m admittedly cherry-picking here, in a) discounting their 13 run outburst Sunday, and b) looking at a tiny sample size in what’s been a fantastic second half overall. But I think it’s fair to say the offense has been scuffling a bit over the last week, and that can’t happen against a Detroit team that’s traded away their best starter (Justin Verlander) and reliever (Justin Wilson).

While the Twins faced strong starting pitching in New York, that won’t be the case in Detroit. Here’s who’s lined up to pitch for the Tigers, according to ESPN.com:

The Twins couldn’t ask for better pitching matchups in this series, and quite simply, they need to take advantage and put up runs against a bad Tigers pitching staff. Now, there’s one caveat to that: Mathew Boyd and Chad Bell are left-handed, which leads into my last key:

5. Figure out the Tigers’ (mediocre) left-handed pitching

The Twins haven’t fared particularly well against left-handed pitching all season, and that was on full display in New York. Jaime Garcia and C.C. Sabathia shut down the Twins, racking up strikeouts and getting the Twins to chase out of the zone. Over the weekend, the Twins will face Boyd and Bell, two mediocre left-handed starters.

The Twins have a lineup that isn’t conducive to hitting left-handed pitching, particularly with Miguel Sano out. Eddie Rosario, Max Kepler, Robbie Grossman and Eduardo Escobar all have better numbers against RHP than LHP. Kepler, in particular, has struggled mightily against lefties, with Paul Molitor choosing to mostly bench him against southpaws. Kepler, though, homered off C.C. Sabathia in Tuesday night’s game, his first against a lefty this season. I’d venture to guess that home run bought Kepler at least one start against either Boyd or Bell, and perhaps helped his confidence a bit in the process. Regardless, if the Twins are intent on winning the series, they’re going to have to put together good at bats against Detroit’s southpaws.

]]>http://www.1500espn.com/twins-2/2017/09/depue-5-keys-twins-heading-pivotal-series-detroit/feed/4http://www.1500espn.com/twins-2/2017/09/depue-5-keys-twins-heading-pivotal-series-detroit/Zulgad: Ready to bet against these Twins? That might be a big mistakehttp://feedproxy.google.com/~r/1500espn/sportswire/twins/~3/O0P3y-XRJ98/
http://www.1500espn.com/twins-2/2017/09/zulgad-ready-bet-twins-might-big-mistake/#commentsWed, 20 Sep 2017 23:28:54 +0000http://www.1500espn.com/?p=430898This seems fitting. In a season in which resilience long ago became the norm, the Minnesota Twins are going to once again have to pick themselves up, dust themselves off and prove that getting dirt…

In a season in which resilience long ago became the norm, the Minnesota Twins are going to once again have to pick themselves up, dust themselves off and prove that getting dirt kicked in their face by a big, bad opponent (this time the New York Yankees) isn’t going to keep them down.

The Twins were outscored 18-6 in being swept in three games at Yankee Stadium. This included an 11-3 loss on Wednesday afternoon in which the Twins took a 3-0 lead against Yankees ace Luis Severino in the top of the third inning before the Bronx Bombers disposed of the Twins by scoring a combined nine runs in the third and fourth innings in chasing starter Bartolo Colon.

The loss left the Twins with only a one-game lead over the Los Angeles Angels for the second wild card spot in the American League. The Angels were scheduled to play host to the AL Central-leading Cleveland Indians on Wednesday night, giving them an opportunity to tie the Twins.

“I believe in that group a lot and it hasn’t changed because of the last three days,” Twins manager Paul Molitor said of his team. “Not only the talent, but the character and really good leadership in that clubhouse. So, big challenge going to Detroit, they’ll be loosey-goosy. I’m sure they’d love to derail us a little bit and we’ll see how we respond.”

In this case, Molitor wasn’t providing lip-service.

What has made this Twins team so interesting isn’t that it’s really that good, at least not yet. Rather it’s every time you figure their season is about to collapse, they have made you feel foolish.

There have been numerous instances of this, including when chief baseball officer Derek Falvey decided to trade starting pitcher Jaime Garcia, whom had just been acquired, and closer Brandon Kintzler before the non-waiver trade deadline on July 31 after the Twins struggled out of the All-Star break.

The Twins had won only five of 15 at that point, but got their act together and went 20-10 in August.

While being swept by the Yankees might be disappointing, it certainly shouldn’t be considered all that surprising.

These Twins haven’t exactly had success against some of the AL’s best. The key is there aren’t that many clubs that can be considered superior in the American League. The list would include Cleveland, Boston, the Yankees and Houston.

Minnesota is 6-10 against Cleveland, 2-5 against Boston, 2-4 against the Yankees and 1-5 against Houston. That included the Astros’ 16-8, 7-2, 17-6 victories in late May at Target Field, a sweep that gave you the feeling the Twins would soon disappear toward the bottom of the AL Central standings. That never happened.

That’s because the Twins’ beat up on teams like the White Sox (12-7) and took the season series from the Royals (11-8).

The Twins have 10 games left on their schedule, including seven total against the 62-90 Tigers. Minnesota will face the Tigers in a four-game series beginning Thursday in Detroit.

It could be considered disturbing that the Twins are only 5-7 against Detroit this season, but the Tigers also have gone into a rebuild in recent weeks and sent away some key pieces. This includes former ace Justin Verlander.

The issue, as Molitor pointed out, is Detroit could attempt to make the Twins’ life miserable just for the fun of it. The Twins’ other remaining series will be next week in Cleveland. The Indians, who rode a 22-game winning streak to the AL Central title, show no signs of slowing down.

The Angels, meanwhile, will wrap up their series with Cleveland on Thursday afternoon before playing three in Houston, four against the White Sox in Chicago and closing against Seattle at home.

That means the pressure will be on the Twins to take care of business against the Tigers.

That type of pressure would get to most teams – especially one with so many young players, like the Twins have – only every time this club looks as if it’s going to fold, it surges.

“My goal right now is to try to figure out how to get these guys back into a positive frame of mind and to try to go out and win a game in Detroit tomorrow,” Molitor said.

]]>http://www.1500espn.com/twins-2/2017/09/zulgad-ready-bet-twins-might-big-mistake/feed/4http://www.1500espn.com/twins-2/2017/09/zulgad-ready-bet-twins-might-big-mistake/Wetmore’s 5 thoughts: This is why the Yankees wouldn’t be a fun matchup in Octoberhttp://feedproxy.google.com/~r/1500espn/sportswire/twins/~3/YhrPqv3zGdY/
http://www.1500espn.com/twins-2/2017/09/wetmores-5-thoughts-yankees-wouldnt-fun-matchup-october/#commentsWed, 20 Sep 2017 22:05:57 +0000http://www.1500espn.com/?p=430890If the Twins make it to the postseason, I’m guessing there won’t be too much hand-wringing from the team’s fanbase, because… Hey! You’re playing in October one year after losing 103 baseball games. That feat…

]]>If the Twins make it to the postseason, I’m guessing there won’t be too much hand-wringing from the team’s fanbase, because… Hey! You’re playing in October one year after losing 103 baseball games. That feat would be every bit as impressive as it was improbable.

We saw this week, though, as the Twins were swept in New York, why you might not want any part of playing the Yankees in October.

This column presents 5 thoughts the Yankees would make a difficult postseason matchup for Minnesota. (But really, it provides us an excuse to get out some thoughts about where the Twins are at in a year that seemed unlikely to include so much postseason chatter this late in the season.)

1. Luis Severino is really good.

The Twins got to Severino on Wednesday, and that’s an encouraging sign in an otherwise disappointing loss. Severino’s been so good for the Yankees this year that manager Joe Girardi has shuffled the deck to try to make a run at the Red Sox. He’s hoping his ace can make two more starts this season, instead of the one more he had on his ticket when the Yankees originally submitted his work order.

In a one-game series, starting rotation depth means next to nothing. All it takes is one top-shelf starter to tilt the odds in your favor.

First, a little bad news on that front. Then we’ll get to the relative good news.

Severino is just 23 years old, but he’s been one of the best pitchers in baseball this year. Entering Wednesday’s start, he had a 2.93 ERA in 184 1/3 innings this season. He’s a menace when it comes to strikeouts–he’s racked up 218 of them in his 184 innings, with an exceptional strikeout rate of 29.2%. He ranks 8th in baseball in terms of starter ERA this season, and in the second half of the season, only Corey Kluber and Justin Verlander have been better. That’s not exactly the kind of pitcher you want to face in a winner-take -all Wild Card playoff game.

I’m not sure how much I trust the radar gun they were showing on TV this series, but the point remains that Severino’s fastball is turbo-charged.

Now, how about some good news?

For one thing, while Kennys Vargas looked impressed by that velocity — even while just taking a first-pitch fastball for a strike — later in the plate appearance he singled and then scored a run.

Severino only got to 3 innings against the Twins, actually, and they scored 3 runs on 5 hits and a walk. It’s possible he was pulled just to avoid over-exposing him against a team that he may face in about 2 weeks with New York’s postseason life on the line. It’s also possible that it was just time to go to the bullpen after the young ace labored through a strenuous 3rd inning, which included a beauty of an at-bat by Joe Mauer, a 13-pitch RBI single in which Severino and catcher Gary Sanchez had no answers for the Twins’ DH.

Still, Severino has been awesome in the second half, and you’d probably rather avoid him in the playoffs if given the choise. Here’s some more good news: the Twins could get that opportunity.

Girardi switched up his starting rotation to have Severino face the Twins, on the chance that he could pitch twice more for the Yankees instead of just one more time. That would be a boost to the slim hopes the Yankees currently have of catching the Red Sox in the American League East. But it could also mean Severino pitching Sept. 30, and therefor being unavailable to start the Wild Card game on regular rest.

In that way, maybe the Yankees’ pursuit of the Red Sox in their division cold be a good thing for the Twins.

In the first half of the season, Judge was the talk of baseball. He was the best young player, and his Ruthian power had some folks wondering if he’d be the next face of baseball. The second half hasn’t been nearly as kind to the Yankees rookie slugger, as far as gaudy numbers go. He’s still on track to have the best season of any rookie in Yankees history.

1st half

2nd half

HR

30

14

K %

29.8%

33.3%

AVG

.329

.201

OBP

.448

.363

SLG

.691

.435

wOBA

.466

.340

wRC+

196

110

Source: FanGraphs.com

Those numbers were pulled before he hit another home run against the Twins on Wednesday. Take a look at the last column. Weighted Runs Created Plus is designed to scale so that 100 is exactly average. So a 196 wRC+ means that stat measured Judge as 96% better than the league average in the first half. During his second-half slump, meanwhile, he’s only been 10% better than the league-average hitter. First-world problems.

My point here is just that in a one-game series, 4 or 5 plate appearances from Judge will put stress on a pitching staff. Whether or not he’s scuffling, Judge has the power to change a game, and in this case, a series.

3. Are you kidding me with that bullpen?

I won’t linger on this point, although it’s the primary reason I wouldn’t want to face the Yankees in a postseason series of any length.

I know that Aroldis Chapman and Dellin Betances have resemebled humans at times this year. And yet, that’s a scary looking bullpen. If you’ve got to beat New York in one 9-inning game with the season on the line, you’d better score some runs on the starting pitcher.

You’ve got Chapman and Betances, but don’t forget about midseason acquisitions David Robertson, Tommy Kahnle, oh, and Chad Green and Adam Warren. Girardi can play matchups or he can just give everybody an inning and ask for 3 innings out of his starter. Not that I think he’ll do that. If the Yankees find a way to march through another October and get to the World Series, I’m guessing that Super Bullpen will be a big reason why.

4. The Twins probably have the better lineup right now, but the Yankees have a good one.

The Bronx Bombers outscored the Twins 18-6 in their 3-game series. I wouldn’t take that as an indication that the Yankees have the better lineup. In a vacuum I’d take the Twins, actually.

Those Yankees hitters are no slouches, though. This season, they rank 5th in home runs as a team (219), second in runs scored (800), and third in team Weighted On-Base Average (.333). For the sake of comparison, Miguel Sano finished last season with a .334 wOBA.

So that’s a tough draw for Ervin Santana — or whichever Twins starter would be asked to pitch that potential Wild Card game on Oct. 3. My guess would be Santana, and he’s currently lined up to make that start.

5. Will the Twins have Miguel Sano back?

It doesn’t look good at this point, but Kevin Garnett told us in 2008 that anything is possible, so who knows.

You don’t necessarily need him if you’re the Twins. The lineup, in general, has been pretty good without him thanks to some great contributions from Byron Buxton, Jorge Polanco, Joe Mauer, Brian Dozier and Eddie Rosario.

If we’re being realistic, I’d take it as a discouraging sign that a stress reaction hasn’t allowed Sano to get out of a soft walking boot more than a month later, and with less than two weeks to go before a possible postseason appearance, he still hasn’t reported marked progress. He’s actually gotten into some baseball activity, but to my knowledge, Sano is yet to take a round of batting practice and run without feeling sore or experiencing swelling the next day.

Let’s say the shin that’s held him out of the lineup since Aug. 19 is wondrously healed tomorrow. How prepared would Sano be to take back over his regular spot in the batting order? Is a month away from MLB pitching enough to accumulate significant rust? Without the benefit of a minor league rehab stint or instructional league, would Sano be able to work his way back into game shape and timing just by swinging a bat against some extra Twins relief pitchers in a simulated game?

Having been around him a little bit, I’d expect that Sano is doing everything that he can to get back in time. I’m just not sure that there’s anything the Twins can do to ensure that happens.

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]]>http://www.1500espn.com/twins-2/2017/09/wetmores-5-thoughts-yankees-wouldnt-fun-matchup-october/feed/7http://www.1500espn.com/twins-2/2017/09/wetmores-5-thoughts-yankees-wouldnt-fun-matchup-october/BONUS: The Twins have had a fun pop-up season; should we expect more?http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/1500espn/sportswire/twins/~3/MQQXhRsHfJg/
http://www.1500espn.com/touch-em-all/2017/09/bonus-twins-fun-pop-season-expect/#respondWed, 20 Sep 2017 19:23:04 +0000http://www.1500espn.com/?p=430883The Twins have had a fun and surprising season. If it all goes down the tubes, will we be angry? Derek Wetmore joins Judd Zulgad and Phil Mackey to debate the topic of “house money”…

]]>http://www.1500espn.com/touch-em-all/2017/09/bonus-twins-fun-pop-season-expect/feed/0http://www.1500espn.com/touch-em-all/2017/09/bonus-twins-fun-pop-season-expect/Change of plans: Twins will get to see young Yankees ace, a possible postseason previewhttp://feedproxy.google.com/~r/1500espn/sportswire/twins/~3/YsQcpDIA66g/
http://www.1500espn.com/twins-2/2017/09/change-plans-twins-will-get-see-young-yankees-ace-possible-postseason-preview/#commentsWed, 20 Sep 2017 01:53:04 +0000http://www.1500espn.com/?p=430855Luis Severino has been great this year for the Yankees, and if you need a guy to win you one game in the postseason, he’s likely the guy you’d turn to. That’s been the assumption…

]]>Luis Severino has been great this year for the Yankees, and if you need a guy to win you one game in the postseason, he’s likely the guy you’d turn to. That’s been the assumption for a while now—that New York would use their 23-year old ace in a one-game Wild Card game, to give the team its best chance to advance to the next round.

What’s more, with their closest competitor in the A.L. Wild Card race, the Twins, in town this week visiting the Yankees, Severino wasn’t scheduled to pitch in the three games. So he’d potentially see the Twins for the first time of his career in that Wild Card game.

But the Yankees are shuffling the deck, and now Severino will face the Twins in September.

Yankees manager Joe Girardi announced Tuesday that the team is shuffling its pitching rotation for at least the second time in recent days. The latest alteration leaves Severino slated to face the Twins on Wednesday in the series finale. He’ll square off with Bartolo Colon.

“Our goal is still to win the division,” Girardi told reporters. “We have clinched nothing at this point.”

The Yankees entered Tuesday’s matchup with a 5-game cushion over the Twins for the first wild card spot. And they trailed the Red Sox by just 3 games, which prompted the switch.

With Severino scheduled to pitch Wednesday, he’ll be available to come back on regular rest on Sept. 25, and then, if the Yankees decide it’s worth it, once more on Sept. 30. If he makes that start, it’ll mean that New York is right there in American League East, with a chance to catch Boston. But it would also wipe him out for that possible Wild Card game, Oct. 3.

Three starts from a guy like Severino is better than two, if you need to win every game. But it’s also possible that the Yankees will get to that Sept. 30 start and decide that the math no longer adds up, if they can’t change their postseason seeding by winning another game, maybe it makes more sense to hang on to Severino for the Wild Card game. With six starting pitchers healthy and available, they’d have that luxury.

The Twins, meanwhile, are set up nicely. Provided they can hold off the Angels and secure the second wild card spot, they’ll turn to their trusted ace, Ervin Santana, on Oct. 3. He’s currently lined up to get two more starts during the regular season, and then would be available on regular rest for the Wild Card game.

Severino’s been one of the best pitchers in the American League this season, with a 2.93 ERA in 184 1/3 innings. He’s also striking out a whopping 29.2% of opposing hitters, and walking just 6.6% of them (218 strikeouts and 49 walks on the year).

If he does start that all-important game against the Twins – likely in Yankee Stadium – it could be a tall order for Minnesota. Yes, some of New York’s relievers have struggled at times, and yes, no starting pitcher is unbeatable. But back up Severino with a loaded bullpen that includes Aroldis Chapman, Dellin Betances, David Robertson, Chad Greene and Tommy Kahnle and, well, it’s a good thing the Twins have one of the best offenses in baseball right now. Looks to me like they’ll need it.

]]>http://www.1500espn.com/the-scoop-2/2017/09/glen-taylor-wiggins-lynx-free-agents-brent-flahr-koivu-ep-97/feed/0http://www.1500espn.com/the-scoop-2/2017/09/glen-taylor-wiggins-lynx-free-agents-brent-flahr-koivu-ep-97/Should the Twins have fired Doug Mientkiewicz? (ep. 136)http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/1500espn/sportswire/twins/~3/_95G591Ycec/
http://www.1500espn.com/touch-em-all/2017/09/twins-fired-doug-mientkiewicz-ep-136/#commentsTue, 19 Sep 2017 20:32:55 +0000http://www.1500espn.com/?p=430847Doug Mientkiewicz fired off some aggressive shots at the Twins front office after his dismissal last week. Should the Twins have handled the situation differently? Phil Mackey and Derek Wetmore discuss on this Touch ’em…

]]>http://www.1500espn.com/touch-em-all/2017/09/twins-fired-doug-mientkiewicz-ep-136/feed/3http://www.1500espn.com/touch-em-all/2017/09/twins-fired-doug-mientkiewicz-ep-136/Notes from New York: Wild card push, Adrianza’s new leg kickhttp://feedproxy.google.com/~r/1500espn/sportswire/twins/~3/O6aW01uTMQo/
http://www.1500espn.com/twins-2/2017/09/notes-new-york-wild-card-push-adrianzas-new-leg-kick/#commentsTue, 19 Sep 2017 03:18:39 +0000http://www.1500espn.com/?p=430789NEW YORK—The Twins lost a close ballgame Monday, falling 2-1 to the Yankees in a well-played, late-season game between two playoff contenders. Despite the loss, the Twins still hold a 1.5 game lead over the…

]]>NEW YORK—The Twins lost a close ballgame Monday, falling 2-1 to the Yankees in a well-played, late-season game between two playoff contenders. Despite the loss, the Twins still hold a 1.5 game lead over the Angels for the second wild card spot, with 12 games remaining. If the Twins are able to hold off the Angels, there’s a pretty good chance they’ll be back in New York in two weeks for the wild card game.

Monday’s game had a playoff feel to it, with relatively cool weather, a sizeable crowd at Yankee Stadium, and a few key late at-bats deciding the game. Former Twin Jaime Garcia, who made only one start for Minnesota before being traded to New York, shut down the Twins over 5.2 innings, allowing just one unearned run and striking out nine. The Twins had a great chance to take the lead in the 8th inning, loading the bases with one out for the hot-hitting Joe Mauer. The Yankees countered with Aroldis Chapman, who struck out Mauer on three pitches before getting Byron Buxton to fly out.

The game was an important one for the Twins, for a lot of reasons. Every game at this stage is important, of course, but these games hold extra meaning because of the possibility they’ll be back in New York in early October. More broadly, the series is a good test of their ability to play big games in hostile environments, something many of the Twins’ young core is experiencing for the first time.

“I think it’s good for us,” Brian Dozier said of playing meaningful September games at Yankee Stadium. “We’re very young. We have a lot of people here who have never even played at this stadium, much less thinking about maybe it [the wild card game] could be here. This late in the season, especially for a lot of the young guys that never even been here, I think that’s big.”

Paul Molitor, about as even-keeled as it gets, said he’s trying not to make things bigger than they are, though admitted before the game he was interested in seeing how his team would respond to the bright lights of New York.

“What I’m looking forward to today, is I want to see how some of these guys respond. Because it’s always a little different here. You try to keep it as normal as you can, but I’ve played here in October and it’s just got a different feel,” he said before the game. “I think that’s part of the challenge of leadership, to try to help steer them through some of these things that are going to be emotionally charged. I do think there could be some help if we’re able to advance by playing in these games.”

The Twins will have a chance to even the series tomorrow, with Jose Berrios getting his first taste of Yankees Stadium.

Adrianza’s leg kick

As is the case with most overachieving teams, there have been a number of unsung heroes on the Twins this season. Super-utility man Ehire Adrianza is among them. In 61 games this year, Adrianza’s hitting .270/.335/.383 while playing around the diamond. Adrianza’s a strong defender in the infield, and has been able to fill in adequately in left field, despite having never played the outfield in the big leagues prior to this season.

Adrianza’s having by far his most productive year at the plate, and he credits hitting coach James Rowson and assistant hitting coach Rudy Hernandez for improving his mechanics. Specifically, Adrianza said he’s worked with Rowson and Hernandez on adding a leg kick, which he’s never had prior to this season. Adrianza said he didn’t have the leg kick in spring training, and began incorporating it in May after spending April on the DL.

“I changed my approach at the plate,” he said of his offensive breakout. “Rudy and James have helped a lot this year from the beginning of the season. I’m doing the leg kick now. I see more of the ball, [see it] more clearly. I can recognize the pitch more. It was tough at the beginning, it was new for me. The first couple games I wasn’t feeling pretty good, but they told me you have to keep learning because that’s going help you to be a better hitter. The results are pretty good so far.”

I think Adrianza’s comments are interesting for a couple of reasons. First, it seems he’s another hitter who’s improved under the tutelage of Rowson. Buxton clearly credits a lot of his success to him, and Eddie Rosario’s also had a vastly improved approach at the plate this season. Second, Adrianza’s changes demonstrate that Rowson isn’t uniformly anti-leg kick, but rather makes changes based on what he sees in the mechanics of each individual player with whom he works. When Rowson suggested Buxton get rid of his leg kick earlier this year in an effort to make better contact and have a stronger lower half, some were critical of the decision.

Rowson, in my view, deserves a lot of credit for the Twins blossoming into one of the better hitting teams in the American League. Perhaps it’s not a coincidence that the offense has been particularly strong in the second half of the season, as Rowson accumulates more time with his young offensive core.

Busenitz holding up

The Twins are relying on several rookie relievers to carry them through the playoff push. Alan Busenitz and Trevor Hildenberger, in particular, have played critical roles down the stretch, with both pitching in mostly high leverage spots. Neither has experience working deep into September, and that’s surely something the Twins are cognizant of, though at this point they probably don’t have much of a choice but to ride them through the rest of the season.

Busenitz said Monday his arm is holding up fine, and that his velocity isn’t down, as far as he knows. As far as the high-leverage innings, Busenitz says he tries not to think about it too much.

“There’s a little more pressure,” he said. “I try to keep the same approach. Plate’s the same distance. Same hitters.”

It’s rare, though, for a rookie reliever like Busenitz, who wasn’t a heralded prospect or even on the 40-man roster to start the season, to be pitching critical innings in a playoff race. He seems to be enjoying the experience.