Divided Congress tests both parties

Published: Sunday, November 18, 2012 at 4:30 a.m.

Last Modified: Friday, November 16, 2012 at 8:19 p.m.

Despite their different party affiliations, the post-election political landscape in Washington presents challenges for both 11th District Congressman-elect Mark Meadows, a Republican, and Sen. Kay Hagan, a Democrat, according to political scientists.

For Meadows, who ran as a tea party-backed conservative who would repeal Obamacare and slash the size of government, President Obama’s re-election and Democrats’ greater majority in the Senate changes the game substantially, academics said.

For Hagan, experts said the difficulty will be balancing her state’s solidly red hue with loyalty to her Democratic base as she heads toward a contentious mid-term election in 2014.

“Meadows, and the Republican Party as a whole, is faced with a quandary,” said Dr. Ralph Hamlett, an associate professor of political communications at Brevard College. “Do they hold with this tea party mindset of 2010 or do they take the results of 2012 to suggest a need for a new direction, one of conciliation?”

Hamlett isn’t sure which tack the GOP will take, pointing out the party is still reassessing itself in the wake of surprising losses on Election Day. But one sign is House Speaker John Boehner “seems to have left the door open a bit” on increasing revenues as part of a broad deficit deal, he said.

“Because I think he understands his leadership is in jeopardy, that if he holds firm to the tea party position and popular opinion turns against the Republicans for not increasing taxes on the (wealthiest) 1 percent, or for cutting popular programs too much, Republicans will suffer the consequences,” Hamlett said.

Dr. Chris Cooper, chair of Western Carolina University’s Department of Political Science, said given Meadows’ hard-right stance during the GOP primary and general election, he’s bound to move some toward the middle.

“To be successful in Washington, he’s going to have to moderate some,” Cooper said. “At the same time, his conservative rhetoric helped him get elected and it was by a modern-day landslide. So I think he’ll remain strong on his conservative vision.”

Neither party wants to see the country fall off the “fiscal cliff” triggered by automatic, across-the-board spending cuts in January, said Dr. Steven Greene, an associate professor of political science at N.C. State University.

But Democrats are in the better position to negotiate, Greene said, which means freshmen House Republicans like Meadows will likely have to give a little.

“Let’s be honest,” he said. “Two years ago, all the energy and enthusiasm was with the Republican Party and those freshmen legislators who were from the right of the party. And that’s not the case this election. I don’t know how good my crystal ball is, but I think with the political contest being so different now, there’s going to have to be some compromise on the Republican side.”

For Sen. Kay Hagan, it would seem Democrats’ gains in the Senate would be a good omen for 2014, a sign that moderate Democrats like Hagan might be safe. But political pundits point out Hagan’s vulnerabilities.

Invigorated by their sweep of the N.C. legislature, Republicans have already targeted Hagan’s seat as one of six that could help the GOP regain control of the Senate. Experts said Democrats are mindful of this and will try to provide Hagan political cover.

“There will be a number of votes where they can afford to not have her,” Greene said. “They know it’s more important to have her two years from now.”

Cooper agreed that Democrats are well aware of how important it is to have Southern representation in the Senate. “I think they’ll make sure that Hagan doesn’t have to take too many stands that are unpopular,” he said.

As examples, Greene said Hagan might vote against controversial Obama judicial nominations or appointments to head agencies. She could also oppose hot-potato economic legislation, knowing full well it won’t get past the House, he said.

“If citizens see popular programs cut, and at the same time you see a refusal to raise taxes on the very rich, the repercussions may harm the Republican Party,” he said. “So Kay Hagan may be very safe where she is.”

<p>Despite their different party affiliations, the post-election political landscape in Washington presents challenges for both 11th District Congressman-elect Mark Meadows, a Republican, and Sen. Kay Hagan, a Democrat, according to political scientists.</p><p>For Meadows, who ran as a tea party-backed conservative who would repeal Obamacare and slash the size of government, President Obama's re-election and Democrats' greater majority in the Senate changes the game substantially, academics said.</p><p>For Hagan, experts said the difficulty will be balancing her state's solidly red hue with loyalty to her Democratic base as she heads toward a contentious mid-term election in 2014.</p><p>“Meadows, and the Republican Party as a whole, is faced with a quandary,” said Dr. Ralph Hamlett, an associate professor of political communications at Brevard College. “Do they hold with this tea party mindset of 2010 or do they take the results of 2012 to suggest a need for a new direction, one of conciliation?”</p><p>Hamlett isn't sure which tack the GOP will take, pointing out the party is still reassessing itself in the wake of surprising losses on Election Day. But one sign is House Speaker John Boehner “seems to have left the door open a bit” on increasing revenues as part of a broad deficit deal, he said.</p><p>“Because I think he understands his leadership is in jeopardy, that if he holds firm to the tea party position and popular opinion turns against the Republicans for not increasing taxes on the (wealthiest) 1 percent, or for cutting popular programs too much, Republicans will suffer the consequences,” Hamlett said.</p><p>Dr. Chris Cooper, chair of Western Carolina University's Department of Political Science, said given Meadows' hard-right stance during the GOP primary and general election, he's bound to move some toward the middle.</p><p>“To be successful in Washington, he's going to have to moderate some,” Cooper said. “At the same time, his conservative rhetoric helped him get elected and it was by a modern-day landslide. So I think he'll remain strong on his conservative vision.”</p><p>Neither party wants to see the country fall off the “fiscal cliff” triggered by automatic, across-the-board spending cuts in January, said Dr. Steven Greene, an associate professor of political science at N.C. State University. </p><p>But Democrats are in the better position to negotiate, Greene said, which means freshmen House Republicans like Meadows will likely have to give a little.</p><p>“Let's be honest,” he said. “Two years ago, all the energy and enthusiasm was with the Republican Party and those freshmen legislators who were from the right of the party. And that's not the case this election. I don't know how good my crystal ball is, but I think with the political contest being so different now, there's going to have to be some compromise on the Republican side.”</p><p>For Sen. Kay Hagan, it would seem Democrats' gains in the Senate would be a good omen for 2014, a sign that moderate Democrats like Hagan might be safe. But political pundits point out Hagan's vulnerabilities.</p><p>Invigorated by their sweep of the N.C. legislature, Republicans have already targeted Hagan's seat as one of six that could help the GOP regain control of the Senate. Experts said Democrats are mindful of this and will try to provide Hagan political cover.</p><p>“There will be a number of votes where they can afford to not have her,” Greene said. “They know it's more important to have her two years from now.”</p><p>Cooper agreed that Democrats are well aware of how important it is to have Southern representation in the Senate. “I think they'll make sure that Hagan doesn't have to take too many stands that are unpopular,” he said.</p><p>As examples, Greene said Hagan might vote against controversial Obama judicial nominations or appointments to head agencies. She could also oppose hot-potato economic legislation, knowing full well it won't get past the House, he said. </p><p>Hamlett thinks Hagan's prospects hinge largely on how Republicans position themselves in upcoming months.</p><p>“If citizens see popular programs cut, and at the same time you see a refusal to raise taxes on the very rich, the repercussions may harm the Republican Party,” he said. “So Kay Hagan may be very safe where she is.”</p>