aGraduate School of Water Resources, Sungkyunkwan Univ.bDept. of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Hanyang Univ.cDept. of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Hanyang Univ.

2016.6. 607:614

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The well-timed water management is required to reduce drought damages. It is also necessary to induce residents in drought-affected areas to save water. Information on future storage is important in managing water resources based on the current and future states of drought. This study employed a kernel function to develop a probabilistic model for predicting dam storage considering inflow uncertainty. This study also investigated the application of the proposed probabilistic model during the extreme drought. This model can predict a probability of temporal variation of storage. Moreover, the model can be used to make a long-term plan since it can identify a temporal change of storage and estimate a required reserving volume of water to achieve the target storage.