Cocoa looks for support in grind data

General Comments: Futures closed little changed in consolidation trading as warm and dry weather continued in Florida. It has been cold in California where some of the citrus could be affected, but so far there have been no reports of losses. California will see moderating temperatures through the weekend. Weather remains good in Florida, although more rain would be beneficial. Temperatures remain mild in the state, and conditions are mostly dry. Forecasts call for mostly dry conditions to continue. Fruit is holding for now, and irrigation is being used by producers to hold crop condition. Harvest in Florida of mid and early oranges is continuing. Demand for domestically produced Juice remains down from last year. Weather in Brazil is reported to be good. Brazil is seeing warm temperatures and light showers or dry conditions.

Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 110.00, 109.00, and 108.00 March, with resistance at 115.00, 118.00, and 122.00 March.

COFFEE

General Comments: Futures were higher on follow through speculative buying. Bulls were not able to force new highs for the week, so some selling is possible today. Charts still show that all three markets are in short term up trends. Current crop development is good this year in Brazil, and production areas are getting beneficial rain for the developing crop. Central America crops are getting harvested, and conditions are called good there. There are widespread reports of rust on the trees and leaves, and Roya has become a big issue as well. It is possible that many Central America and Mexico producers will harvest much less Coffee next year if they are affected by this disease, and many seem to be affected. Costa Rica says the country could lose up to 30% of the crop, and Mexico expects to see a significant impact. Crops in Guatemala, Honduras, and El Salvador have also been affected, but so far crops in Nicaragua seem to show less damage. Colombia is reported to have good conditions.

Overnight News: Certified stocks are higher today and are about 2.602 million bags. The ICO composite price is now 138.90 ct/lb. Brazil should get scattered showers and storms through the weekend. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Colombia should get mostly dry conditions, and Central America and Mexico should get mostly dry conditions, but a few showers are possible in central and eastern Mexico. Temperatures should average near to above normal.

Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to up with objectives of 158.00, 160.00, and 170.00 March. Support is at 149.00, 146.00, and 143.00 March, and resistance is at 157.00, 160.00, and 162.00 March. Trends in London are up with objectives of 2100 and 2290 March. Support is at 1940, 1930, and 1910 March, and resistance is at 1990, 2000, and 2020 March. Trends in Sao Paulo are up with objectives of 199.00 March. Support is at 187.00, 184.50, and 183.50 March, and resistance is at 193.50, 195.00, and 196.00 March.

SUGAR

General Comments: Futures closed a little lower on follow through selling tied to reports of beneficial rains in Brazil and on no real demand news. Production has been strong in Brazil so far this year, but the areas with the best weather have been in the Center-South region. The rains are also now in the north where conditions had been too dry. Futures are in a trading range, but trends are turning down. News of any kind remains hard for the traders to find. There was no demand news to support values. Big Brazil production remains negative to prices, and traders know that Indian and Thai production is in the market, too. The Thai crushing season is underway with good production expected, but the crushing pace remains slow. Traders wonder if and when India will cut offers to the market due to the lower prices and perhaps less than expected production due to some dry weather at the beginning of the growing season. Brazil production continues strong.

Overnight News: Scattered and light showers are expected in Brazil through the weekend. Temperatures should be near to above normal

Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with objectives of 1820, 1810, and 1760 March. Support is at 1830, 1800, and 1770 March, and resistance is at 1885, 1900, and 1925 March. Trends in London are down with no objectives. Support is at 495.00, 490.00, and 485.00 March, and resistance is at 500.00, 505.00, and 510.00 March.

About the Author

Jack Scovilleis a veteran futures market analyst specializing in grains, softs, rice, oilseeds, and tropical products such as coffee and sugar. His industry contacts in South America, Europe, Asia, and North America provide him with a unique and comprehensive view of these markets. Jack began working in the futures industry over 30 years ago and spent 10 years working on the floor of the Chicago Board of Trade in various roles, starting with The PRICE Futures Group since it was established in 1988. Jack writes daily commentaries - Morning Grains and Softs, in both English and Spanish and is regularly quoted around the world by news & wire services including Dow Jones, AP, Bloomberg, and Reuters. You can contact Jack by phone at (312) 264-4322 or by email at jscoville@pricegroup.com. Learn even more on our website at www.pricegroup.com.

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