"Bottom 5" and Top 6" refers to the final positions of each team last year. It also excludes Bath from the equation technically making it a table of 11 teams (so Northampton would technically count as a top 6 side despite finishing 7th). London Irish take the place this year of the relegated Bristol.

This totals exactly 70 points. Obviously there will be upsets (arguably Sarries at home wouldn't fit this mold as many expected a loss) but it is the simplest approach I could think of to deliver the right number of points. It also doesn't factor in winning bonus points which could obviously negate the odd upset.

So far this season then:

Leicester Away:
Target = 1pts
Actual = 4pts

Sarries Home:
Target = 4pts
Actual = 4pts

Totals:
Target: 5pts
Actual: 8pts

So essentially according to my crude method, Bath are 3 points ahead of schedule. Or as a percentage we are 11% of the way towards 70 points vs a target of 7% - so a great start!

Not perfect, possibly pointless, but I thought I'd share it anyway!

Can update if anyone other than me cares and if someone tells me how to paste in an excel table without screwing up the formatting or post a screenshot I can make it much more aesthetic and laydown the table for the whole season.

Welcome to the board - posting Excel sheets is best done by taking a screenshot of them and opsting the jpg.

As for the system - the previous Ed. used to run a similar thread; a like-for-like comparison of the current season to the previous couple, along with aggragate difference. I'm sure he'd be more than happy for you to take over (but I could always be wrong - it does happen sometimes...)

As Wasps and Quins have found there is no easy, obvious 5 pointer and if you look beyond Irish and Worcs for the bottom 2 places then look at the starting 15 for the teams you think most likely to be placed at 9th and 10th

The AP is getting increasingly competitive and the points difference between 3rd and 8th will be small - 70 points will smash a play off position

A man after my own heart!
This is pretty much what we achieved in coming second in 2014/5 when I think we beat all the bottom 6 away.
Last season, our undoing was to lose away to the bottom 4 teams and winning those away game this season will be the hardest thing, especially when they are on plastic!

Obviously you're not going to be on the winning side in every close game, last year it was 50/50. It probably felt worse because most of the losses were at the end of the season, but you'd hope for a few TBPs to go with the LBPs and compensate for the odd slip up.

OutsideBathLosing at Saints is no shame, but losing at home to Falcons does suggest we have some fundamental weakness.
We seem to be a really inconsistent team, beat Tigers, Sarries and Wasps then lose to Falcons!

The implication is that you don't consider Falcons to be a good team - which puts you a couple of years out of date.

OutsideBathLosing at Saints is no shame, but losing at home to Falcons does suggest we have some fundamental weakness.
We seem to be a really inconsistent team, beat Tigers, Sarries and Wasps then lose to Falcons!

The implication is that you don't consider Falcons to be a good team - which puts you a couple of years out of date.

Burn...

To be fair though WT does raise a good point which is that we probably do not perceive Falcons to be a threat but really we should. They have started the season tremendously well and were well deserving of their win against us to be fair. We should also count our blessings really that we got two losing bonus points at that given that we were 19-0 down in 20 minutes and how tight the league is this year they may be vital points in the end for top 4 places.

For me they are definitely top 4 if not title contenders if they continue as they are!

OutsideBathLosing at Saints is no shame, but losing at home to Falcons does suggest we have some fundamental weakness.
We seem to be a really inconsistent team, beat Tigers, Sarries and Wasps then lose to Falcons!

The implication is that you don't consider Falcons to be a good team - which puts you a couple of years out of date.

It's possible that I have let my intense dislike for them cloud my judgement, however when you look at who they have played so far I do believe they are in a slightly false position.

A home game so obviously targeting a win and this was one of those games where you hope for a bonus point to give ourselves a bit of breathing room. The 4 tries means we pull one point further ahead of our season target to date:

Target: 15 pts
Current: 19 pts

We are now over 25% through the season and 4 points ahead of schedule which allows us a potential wobble at some point.

That being said, upcoming home games and match ups vs weaker opposition do mean we will need to put a run together over the next 3 games. Heres hoping we can do that now!

Be assured Newcastle are no mugs and have achieved their excellent start without their 'new stars' Flood and Mermoz starting yet.

They play an all action, running game, backing up and off loading close to any breach in a defense. They may lack a real speedster but have huge experience in players like Gonova and their scrum half, workmanlike mobile pack with the excellent Wilson to the fore, very much like Exeter's game plan of 2/3 seasons ago. They will continue to beat other, better on paper sides, and will not be weakened by international call ups either.

IMO a true force to be reckoned with and could easily be in the top 4 at the end of the season.

I think there's so little to choose between 3rd and 10th that luck could make the difference across that range.
In terms of quality of squad (team and backroom) call it "par":
Saracens and Wasps are top of the pile

Bath, Exeter & Leicester are much of a muchness; and only slightly behind them are
Gloucester, Harlequins, Newcastle, Northampton & Sale are also much of a muchness

BathovalballerBe assured Newcastle are no mugs and have achieved their excellent start without their 'new stars' Flood and Mermoz starting yet.
They play an all action, running game, backing up and off loading close to any breach in a defense. They may lack a real speedster but have huge experience in players like Gonova and their scrum half, workmanlike mobile pack with the excellent Wilson to the fore, very much like Exeter's game plan of 2/3 seasons ago. They will continue to beat other, better on paper sides, and will not be weakened by international call ups either.

IMO a true force to be reckoned with and could easily be in the top 4 at the end of the season.

It could be that their "new stars" won't make the team but they will strengthen the squad. I will plump for 6/7th

We got the job done with a lot of our top players on international duty to just about stay above the planned target.

Need a win vs Quins before heading to Exeter. Then we have the very tough ask of winning 6 on the spin...here's hoping. The way the league is shaping up it's likely that 4th place will require a lot less points than 70 anyway. For me personally I think we're looking less and less like a top 4 side - I hope i'm proved wrong!

We're now 2 points ahead of where we need to be heading into a tough game against Exeter. If we can somehow get a result at Sandy Park we'll be in a really strong position going into a tough run of games where according to the above principles we'll require six wins in a row.

Here's hoping! I still don't think we look like a top 4 team but if we can keep grinding out wins who knows!

Well done BathJoe. This is a good indicator as to how far away we are from where we want to be. Such a shame after those good early results. However, imagine where we would be now if we hadnít started well.

I donít think it will be anything like 70 required to make 4th place for the reasons Hasta gave a while ago. More like 63-65 IMHO - so itís not as bad as it looks, and a good run by us could qualify- or indeed anyone else from 4-9 in this very open season!

byI don't think we'll beat Wuss on Friday but with several players expected to return to the squad soon we should be able to get a good run of games in the following block of games.
When we face Saints on the 8th of February we should have Batty, Attwood, Louw, Underhill, Faletau, Clark, Tapuai, Banahan and Tom Homer available, all of whom will make a huge difference.

Much as I would love this, I don't think that half of those will be available to play?

Bath's director of rugby Todd Blackadder reported...Faletau doesn't need an operation and could be back in time for the final two games in the Six Nations against Italy and France in Cardiff.

Someone said that Banners is in a boot?

Francois Louw, who is also out of the Wasps game with medial ligament damage.

Quite right, of course we haven't but I was at Sharks v Sarries on Friday night and have confused the games, how dim of me. I put it down to age and increasingly poor memory, I'm off for a lie down until Sat PM...

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