Invest 95L Brushes Louisiana Coastline

Midnight CDT UpdateThe low known as Invest 95L stopped it's northward progression and is now moving west along the Louisiana coastline. This is the oddest mesoscale convective complex/tropical feature I've seen in awhile. It's still producing a lot of rain, 2+ inches inland and 6+ inches over the ocean.

Invest 95L is making landfall now in southern Louisiana near Terrebonne Bay. A CMAN station in Terrebonne Bay is currently reporting winds from the SE at 21 mph and the pressure is 1009 mb. Looking at the radar data, Invest 95L never had convection around the center of circulation. Also, it was hard to see a distinct surface circulation in the different analyses available. I believe soaking rains for southern Lousisana are going to be Invest 95L's main legacy. It's already produced 5+ inches of rain in some offshore locations according to radar-derived rainfall estimates.

Invest 96L430 AM UpdateIn sum, the 00Z model runs don't present a different picture. It is curious to note that the Canadian Global model does not intensify 96L at all in the 00Z run, while NOGAPS has shifted towards a SE Louisiana landfall. I think the following discussion is still valid.

96L is going to be an interesting feature to forecast. It's still on the edge of a strong wind shear gradient. 40+ knots of shear are on the NE side of 96L, and <10 knots are on the SW side. The "center" of 96L is under about 15 knots of shear. This is likely inhibiting 96L. Nearly all forecast models take 96L NW through the Yucatan peninsula and into the Gulf of Mexico. Near the Yucatan itself, sea-surface temperatures are relatively cool, not the best environment for intensification. However, at 25N, 87W there is a hotspot of SST's, which would promote rapid intensification. However, there's currently 20 knots of shear over the hotspot, so the thunderstorms that do form as a result will be well ventilated, and not cause 96L to intensify.

The dynamical models have different takes on how 96L intensifies in the next 120 hours. The 18Z operational GFS strongly intensifies 96L over the hotspot and takes 96L towards Grand Isle, LA. The parallel (for testing model configuration changes) GFS has a similar track, but does not strengthen 96L as much. This indicates uncertainty on how the models are handling the upper-level winds.

The 18Z HWRF solution is much like the parallel GFS solution. The 12Z Canadian global model has a more westerly track, pushing 96L towards Port Arthur, but it strengthens 96L right before it makes landfall, not when it's over open water. NOGAPS takes the "a little from column A, a little from column B" approach, with a spinup over the hotspot (op. GFS solution), but a westerly landfall (the Canadian solution). More data to initialize the models from synoptic reconnaissance flights will help reduce uncertainty.

The bottom line, 96L will move into the Gulf of Mexico and is then shrouded by the mists of uncertainty. I also think that it's a possibility (>50%) that it will become a tropical cyclone sometime in the next 48-72 hours (leaning towards sometime in day 2-3 based on the model runs.)

Fig. 3 Plot of maximum winds (mph) for the next 120 hours from the 18Z July 5 GFS model run.Parallel GFS version.

Fig. 4 Plot of maximum winds (mph) for the next 120 hours from the 18Z July 5 HWRF model run.

Fig. 5 Plot of maximum winds (mph) for the next 120 hours from the 12Z July 5 CMC global model run.NOGAPS wind swath.

Next updateI'll probably tweak this blog later tonight as new model runs come in. I'll have a full update tomorrow afternoon (Pacific time).

Most here pick on the NHC because they tend to be more conservative in their forecasts...some defend them regardless, as well they should. Now, about TWC...they are attacked here roundly by all, and deservedly so...LOL

the TWC is aweful, just aweful. The NHC does an amazign thing when you think about it. they are able to tell you where a tropical weather system can impact within 186 miles 2 days out. Thats pretty remarkable.

I just watched your video and found it to be both informative and , in some respects, fascinating. The discussion around the MJO and the converging winds in the Caribbean added a dimension to these features that the average blogger ( myself included ) don't often appreciate fully.

You clearly know this topic well and I would like to say that having you on the blog has been a breath of fresh air. Well done.

Quoting LightningCharmer:1029 I don't understand the outrage. There were glaring typographical errors in an official statement from weather authorities. The weather statement's lack of obvious proof reading led to the discussion with which you objected. It's not like the blog was debating illegal immigration, the Peloponnesian war or the proper proportions of a rum and coke.

Quoting pilotguy1:I still can't figure out why all the bashing of NHC since their guessing seems to be about as good as anyone Else's guessing. We all know that any forecasting more than 24-48 hours is mostly a guess based on historical accuracy. Or is it just recreational fun here to pick on everyone?

Most here pick on the NHC because they tend to be more conservative in their forecasts...some defend them regardless, as well they should. Now, about TWC...they are attacked here roundly by all, and deservedly so...LOL

I just watched your video and found it to be both informative and , in some respects, fascinating. The discussion around the MJO and the converging winds in the Caribbean added a dimension to these features that the average blogger ( myself included ) don't often appreciate fully.

You clearly know this topic well and I would like to say that having you on the blog has been a breath of fresh air. Well done.

I couldnt agree more. It is so nice to have information without rude remarks and insinuations.

Quoting bohonkweatherman:Whatever happens to 96L it is forecasted to be near South Texas coast Thursday evening.

Give it another model run, itll change. It was forecasted to come right here into Houston yesterday. A better forecast will be along in the next 24-48 hrs. That is when more will be known. One thing for sure, no burn ban or drought here in SE Texas!!! Praise the Lord!

Looks like a bit of a lull for a day or so. 96L still suffering from split personality problems with its best chance for development now over land.

My attention is further out in the Atl. as there are signs that the CV season is about to take over from the Caribbean type disturbances that have dominated the tropical weather of late.

In particular, the wave near 40 W is exhibitng some fair amount of turning and vorticity that has persisted over time. Coming off the coast is another interesting feature with very high vorticity and that will also need monitoring down the road.

two diff. now...surface and mid-level, doesn't appear they will be lining up either at this point, JB says surface will head up then watch the mid-level to see if it ends up developing once over the gulf

I just watched your video and found it to be both informative and , in some respects, fascinating. The discussion around the MJO and the converging winds in the Caribbean added a dimension to these features that the average blogger ( myself included ) don't often appreciate fully.

You clearly know this topic well and I would like to say that having you on the blog has been a breath of fresh air. Well done.

I just watched your video and found it to be both informative and , in some respects, fascinating. The discussion around the MJO and the converging winds in the Caribbean added a dimension to these features that the average blogger ( myself included ) don't often appreciate fully.

You clearly know this topic well and I would like to say that having you on the blog has been a breath of fresh air. Well done.

I just watched your video and found it to be both informative and , in some respects, fascinating. The discussion around the MJO and the converging winds in the Caribbean added a dimension to these features that the average blogger ( myself included ) don't often appreciate fully.

You clearly know this topic well and I would like to say that having you on the blog has been a breath of fresh air. Well done.

Now you need to see the hot tower video... (which I don't have, but I am sure someone will post a link to it.)

I just watched your video and found it to be both informative and , in some respects, fascinating. The discussion around the MJO and the converging winds in the Caribbean added a dimension to these features that the average blogger ( myself included ) don't often appreciate fully.

You clearly know this topic well and I would like to say that having you on the blog has been a breath of fresh air. Well done.

Quoting jasoniscoolman2010x:watching this storm big time for the east coast.

Ugghhh huge pet peeve, You are typing beside the image, why don't you skip a few lines so every one can see your comment. EX: wow! Do you think anybody will see that if you typed that under the image. Sorry, just a suggestion.

Quoting mrsalagranny:How well I remember Hurricane Fredrick.My neice was born right in the eye passing.Boy my sister should hae named her Freda.LOL!!!!!But seriously Fredrick devistaed Mobile and its inland counties.I lived in Grand Bay at the time.

How well I remember Hurricane Fredrick.My neice was born right in the eye passing.Boy my sister should hae named her Freda.LOL!!!!!But seriously Fredrick devistaed Mobile and its inland counties.I lived in Grand Bay at the time.