US ABM Treaty Withdrawal Not Expected to Hurt Ties With Russia

Sonja PaceMoscow14 Dec 2001 Voice of America

As widely predicted,
the United States Thursday announced its withdrawal from a 1972 arms
control treaty in order to pursue development of a new missile
defense system. Washington made the decision despite objections by
Russia and concerns expressed by some close allies.

Although the Russians criticized
the U.S. withdrawal, it is not expected to hurt bilateral relations.
Differences over the 1972 Anti-Ballistic Missile, or ABM, Treaty
were a source of tension between Russia and the United States for
most of this year. The Bush administration made it clear it
considered the treaty a Cold War relic and wanted to scrap it in
order to proceed with testing for a new missile defense shield.
Russian leaders condemned this unilateral approach, and issued dire
warnings of the damage the American decision would cause to global
strategic security. Meetings between envoys, presidential summits
and a visit to Moscow by U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell in
early December failed to secure a compromise.

When President Bush made the official announcement in Washington
Thursday, it came as no surprise. The Russians were told in advance
the Americans were going to announce their withdrawal, just as the
Americans were given indications the Russians would express muted
regret.

Shortly after the Bush announcement, Russian President Vladimir
Putin reacted in a brief nationwide television address.

President Putin said the American decision was not unexpected,
but nonetheless a mistake. He said the decision does not pose a
threat to Russia, which has an effective system capable of
overcoming any new missile defense program. But, President Putin
said, Russia believes the ABM treaty is an important pillar
representing many years of mutual effort and negotiations. He warned
that, in today's world, with its new threats, there should be no
vacuum in global security. Mr. Putin also called for continued cuts
in nuclear stockpiles.

President Putin basically restated Russia's position that the ABM
treaty, signed in 1972 by then U.S. President Richard Nixon and
Soviet General Secretary Leonid Brezhnev, is part of an important
framework of arms control agreements that gave some guarantee for
strategic stability. Russia, and even some close U.S. allies, warned
that abandoning the treaty would create a vacuum in this network,
and lead to a potential new arms race.

Russian journalist and political analyst Masha Lipman says that,
despite his misgivings over the U.S. move, President Putin chose to
deliver a muted response. "Within two hours after President Bush's
statement, he [Putin] made his own, expressing regret, but saying
this is not a threat to Russian security, which is a powerful
statement and making it clear that cooperation with the United
States on non-proliferation, on reducing the number of offensive
nuclear weapons will continue," she said.

Ms. Lipman says Mr. Putin's message was also meant to send a
clear signal to political and military figures in Russia, who might
disagree with the president's views. She says the president's quick
reaction was intended to silence any opposition.

Most analysts here say that, despite what some in Russian
political and military circles may think, President Putin knows full
well that Russia is not on equal footing with the United States, and
cannot stop the development of a U.S. missile defense system.

Independent military analyst Pavel Felgenhauer describes Mr.
Putin's reaction as the latest example of Russia's changing
relationship with the United States - a change accelerated by the
September 11 terrorist attacks. Mr. Felgenhauer says Russia's
subsequent support for the U.S.-led global coalition against terror
made clear he had decided to cast his lot with the West. "He [Putin]
decided that Russia's future as a world power is with the West -
understanding - that the only way for Russia to modernize is to be a
Western ally," he said. "Russia needs modern technology, not only
civilian technology. We actually need Western military technology,
because our own former Soviet defense industry is increasingly
incapable of making really modern end products, without the help of
Western components and western technology."

Most analysts here agree that Mr. Putin sees a good opportunity
for Russia, and he is not about to let the ABM issue get in the way.