WPS4185
POST-CONFLICT TRANSITIONS WORKING PAPER NO. 1
Insurgency and credible commitment in
autocracies and democracies
Philip Keefer
Development Research Group
The World Bank
Abstract: This paper suggests a new factor that makes civil war more likely: the inability of
political actors to make credible promises to broad segments of society. Lacking this ability,
both elected and unelected governments pursue public policies that leave citizens less well-
off and more prone to revolt. At the same time, these actors have a reduced ability to build
an anti-insurgency capacity in the first place, since they are less able to prevent anti-
insurgents from themselves mounting coups. However, while reducing the risk of conflict
overall, increasing credibility can, over some range, worsen the effects of natural resources and
ethnic fragmentation on civil war. Empirical tests using various measures of political
credibility support these conclusions.
Acknowledgement: The assistance of Cristina Abodea was essential to the writing of this
paper.
World Bank Policy Research Working Paper 4185, April 2007
The Post-Conflict Transitions Working Paper Series disseminates the findings of work in progress to encourage the exchange of
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Insurgency and credible commitment in autocracies and democracies
The literature on the determinants of civil war asks, "Under what conditions do
normal politics give way to armed conflict?" Three answers to this question have been
explored: resource endowments that raise the stakes of political conflict; the incapacity of
government to organize a response to rebellion, including the presence of country
characteristics (e.g., mountains) favorable to rebel activity; and social conditions, particularly
ethnic fragmentation, that make the population more likely to acquiesce to rebel activity.
The focus in this paper is on a more overtly political characteristic of countries, the ability of
politicians to make credible promises to large segments of the citizenry. Evidence below
suggests that different proxies for credibility distinguish conflict from non-conflict countries
at least as definitively as other conflict predictors, ranging from oil to ethnic
fractionalization.
Lack of credibility promotes insurgency in two ways. First, weakly credible leaders
have incentives only to make policies in the interests of those few specific groups that
believe their promises. Public goods are underprovided and private good provision and
corruption swell in this setting. As a result, most citizens are at best indifferent between the
regime in power and any challenger, facilitating the emergence of insurgency. Second, non-
credible leaders are less able to build an anti-insurgency capacity, both because they cannot
ensure that state forces capable of defeating insurgents will, themselves, refrain from
overthrowing the government; and because they are less able to promise future rewards to
anti-insurgents in return for current anti-insurgency effort. Broad political credibility
simultaneously mitigates the risk of disloyalty and improves the credibility of ruler promises
to anti-insurgents.
Although much of this argument flows directly from recent analyses of political
market imperfections in democracies, it applies as strongly to non-democracies.1 This is
important, because the vast majority of insurgencies occur in non-democracies. The
discussion below identifies features of non-democratic regimes that both lend themselves to
credible commitment by unelected leaders and reduce the likelihood of conflict.
1 Keefer and Khemani (2005) use this term in showing how obstacles to electoral accountability explain
variations in performance across two Indian states.
2
Political credibility and popular support for insurgency
The existing literature already points to a significant role for credibility in how civil
wars start and end. Garfinkel and Skaperdas (2000) argue that political competitors resist
peaceful redistribution because they cannot credibly refrain from using the benefits of
redistribution to arm themselves in the future. In fact, as Walter (1997) reports, only 20
percent of civil wars have ended by agreement, nearly all which relied on third party
enforcement. This paper focuses on a different aspect of credibility, common in discussions
of political competition more generally, but less so in the literature on conflict: whether
leaders can make credible promises to large numbers of citizens. This ability affects the
probability of insurgency in three ways.
First, where rulers can make credible promises to improve the welfare of citizens
broadly, popular support for the ruler deters rebellion. Second, the extent to which rulers
can build an anti-insurgency capacity sufficient to suppress rebels depends on whether they
can make credible promises of future rewards to anti-insurgents. Third, their willingness to
recruit anti-insurgents depends on the ability of anti-insurgents to promise credibly not to
undertake coups against the regime. The first point, whether rulers can make credible
promises to citizens at large, is at the core of the analysis here, affecting both the threat of
insurgency and the ability of rulers to contract with anti-insurgents.
The literature on democratic decision making asks how electoral accountability
changes when challengers cannot make credible promises to voters. In the limit, if
incumbent challengers cannot make credible promises, citizens have no reason to believe
that they will enact different policies or perform better than poorly-performing incumbents.
Incumbents, knowing this, ignore citizen welfare and throw themselves into rent-seeking.
Ferejohn (1986) notes, however, that in real world democracies, even where credibility
appears to be absent, citizens are nevertheless able to exert some electoral accountability on
politicians. He attributes this ability to the possibility of voter coordination on a
performance threshold: if incumbents meet this threshold, they are re-elected; if they do
not, they are expelled. This type of post-electoral accountability mechanism exerts a
relatively weak influence on government performance.
Persson and Tabellini (2000) extend this logic to government decisions regarding the
provision of private and public goods and rent-seeking. However, the extension does not
predict the particular configuration of policies that one observes in many poor ­ and pre-
3
conflict ­ countries: low public good provision, high private (or targeted or "clientelist")
good provision, and high rent-seeking. Keefer and Vlaicu (2005) relax the assumption that
credibility is an exogenous characteristic of countries and allow politicians either to make
promises with the assistance of patrons (who appeal in turn to their clients), or instead, at
some cost, make promises directly to some fraction of society. When costs of the latter are
sufficiently high, or when patrons demand a low enough fraction of rents in exchange for
their services, credible promises can be made to only a few. Policy making therefore benefits
only a few, in the form of targeted policies and spending. Public goods suffer and politicians
have substantial room to collect rents.
Manifestations of credible democracies include the presence of programmatic
political parties and the years of continuing competitive elections. Programmatic parties are,
by definition, able to attract voter support simply because of their policy stance. If they
renege on the policy promises embedded in their program, they lose that ability, making the
promises credible. Similarly, the greater the years of continuous competitive elections, the
greater the opportunity political competitors have had to develop policy reputations with
voters. The cost of losing these reputations makes more credible the commitments these
competitors make to citizens at large. Keefer (2005, 2005b) finds substantial evidence that in
environments where politicians are less able to make credible pre-electoral promises to most
voters (where programmatic parties are absent or the years of continuous competitive
elections fewer), public good provision (such as high secondary school enrollment,
bureaucratic quality and unencumbered public information flows) is lower, private good
provision (government jobs and public investment) are higher, and corruption is higher.2
In both cases, there is a continuum of political credibility from pure clientelism,
where only personalized promises to a select group of citizens are credible, to democracies in
which multiple political competitors can make broad promises to all citizens about all areas
of policy. In intermediate cases, politicians may be able to make credible promises to large
groups of citizens, but fall short of reaching most citizens. So, for example, political parties
may be able to make credible promises to particular ethnic groups about redistributive
transfers, but not to all citizens about improvements to the quality of education.
2These analyses use the number of years of continuous competitive elections and whether or not political
parties are programmatic to capture credibility; these are used here, as well.
4
The effects of credibility on the probability of insurgency follow immediately from
this analysis. Where political credibility is limited, overall social welfare falls and the benefits
of public policy flow narrowly to the small group of citizens to whom rulers can make
credible commitments. To the extent that the threat of insurgency rises as welfare falls or
inequity in the provision of public services increases, the threat of insurgency
correspondingly rises.
The foregoing points to the serious consequences, in democracies, of the effects of
political non-credibility. However, most civil wars occur in non-democracies (56 out of 71
since 1975, the period analyzed here). Credibility also has a significant role in determining
regime support in the non-democracies. For example, clientelist strategies ­ the targeting of
benefits to particular supporters at the expense of citizens at large ­ are a well-known staple
of decision making in poorly performing non-democracies (see, e.g., Lewis 1998), just as they
are in poorly performing democracies.
Like democracies, autocracies vary in their ability to make credible promises to large
numbers of citizens. In many circumstances, as Haber, et al (2003) argue was the case with
the Mexican autocrat Porfirio Díaz, autocrats rely on personal relationships or family ties to
make credible commitments. Their ability to make credible commitments only to a narrow
slice of society correspondingly reduces the quality of public policies towards the vast
majority, increasing incentives to mount insurgencies. On the other hand, Gehlbach and
Keefer (2006) model the incentives of unelected leaders to expand the base of supporters to
whom they can make credible commitments using many of the institutional arrangements
familiar from democracies. Unelected leaders can choose to share power, using some form
of political checks and balances; they can make costly investments in the institutionalization
of a ruling party, including transparent promotion and reward schemes for party members;
they can share decision making power over the repressive power of the state; or they can
allow elections (albeit with substantial limits on entry).
All of these reduce autocrat discretion over policy and facilitate their removal from
office should they renege on promises. This is obvious in the case in which the ruler
deliberately shares control over the repressive apparatus of the state. It is also true even for
apparently technocratic decisions like investing in transparent promotion schemes for party
members. The more transparent and meritocratic the scheme, however, the more difficult it
is for the leader to remove party members for political reasons.
5
Non-democratic rulers also have the opportunity to build a programmatic reputation
for the ruling party. With a programmatic reputation for a particular stance on public
policies, the party further sets itself apart from potential regime opponents, who may have
no credible policy stance except of opposition to the regime. The reputation might be
redistributive (communism) or nationalistic (the opposition of the Mexican Partido
Revolucionario Institucional, PRI, to oil privatization). As long as the policy stance is valued
by some citizens who believe it, a policy reputation increases barriers to entry for regime
opponents, including insurgents.
Two examples illustrate the potential efficacy of institutionalization in essentially
non-democratic settings. Following the Glorious Revolution, as North and Weingast (1989)
famously describe, the (non-democratic) British Crown acceded to institutional arrangements
(a strengthened parliament) that tied its hands; the parliament represented a tiny fraction of
all British citizens, but a considerably larger fraction of its moneyed citizens. As a
consequence, investment opportunities for the members of parliament and employment
opportunities for the rest of society opened up.
China moved from an era in which the top leadership's capacity for arbitrary
decision making (under Mao) was nearly unfettered, to one in which the top leadership was
constrained by a number of intra-party institutional arrangements. These included rules
governing intra-leadership decision making (checks and balances at the top of the party) and
expensive and elaborate personnel evaluation schemes that restricted arbitrary treatment of
cadres by individual leaders. Such institutional arrangements increased the credibility of
leadership promises to millions of Communist Party cadres, who responded to economic
liberalization with massive investments, apparently convinced under the new intra-party
institutional arrangements that Beijing would not expropriate the proceeds of those
investments (Keefer 2006).
In China, as in Britain, the new institutions did not directly protect most of the
population from arbitrary treatment by unelected leaders. However, they did extend this
protection to a group of supporters far larger than a tiny coterie of family members.
Investment by this larger fraction of individuals created employment opportunities for
supporters and non-supporters alike that would not have existed in the absence of these
institutions. This, in turn, mitigated revolutionary threats.
6
Despite their usefulness, institutionalized ruling parties are uncommon in non-
democracies. Institutionalization require leaders to surrender authority and, therefore, rents.
For example, the autocratic leader who decides to share power with a junta of nine other
autocrats could see his rent share drop 90 percent. In countries with large natural resource
deposits, the rents from faster growth, reduced insurgency threats and enhanced anti-
insurgency capacity may be lower than the rents lost from sharing.
In autocracies as in democracies, therefore, the ability of rulers to make credible
commitments to citizens broadly affects their incentives to improve social welfare generally,
and correspondingly affects the probability of insurgency. The empirical analysis below
examines whether, indeed, there is an association between the "institutionalization" of ruling
parties in autocracies and insurgency.
Political credibility and the construction of anti-insurgency capacity
The ability of rulers to make credible promises to citizens at large has a significant
effect on their ability to build anti-insurgency capacity. In particular, it allows them to make
more credible promises regarding the future compensation of anti-insurgents; and it
increases their confidence that anti-insurgents will not overthrow them. The first problem
arises because it is difficult to use spot contracts with anti-insurgents. Leaders cannot easily
observe anti-insurgency effort, nor can the timing of payoffs to anti-insurgents easily be
made to coincide with the effort. Success-based compensation, necessarily ex post, is
therefore a better way to elicit effort, but requires that ruler promises be credible.
In addition, the effort needed to defeat an insurgency may simply exceed the ruler's
borrowing constraint. Assume that governments cannot borrow and that with a total effort
by supporters given by E (expressed in units of rents), an anti-insurgency can be defeated,
extending the expected duration of the government to T years. Anti-insurgents exert effort
E provided that this effort is compensated by the government. The expected value of rents
that the government receives from each additional T years of tenure is given by r; total rents
are given by R=rT. If its assurances to supporters are credible, anti-insurgents accept future
rewards for current effort and the government can expend up to R to defeat the insurgency,
7
prevailing if R>E. If these assurances are not credible, though, the government can only
defeat the insurgency if r>E.3
There are two solutions to this problem. The first emerges if rulers have put in place
institutional arrangements that allow them to make credible promises to large segments of
the citizenry. These same arrangements allow them to make credible promises to anti-
insurgents. For example, in autocracies, if the promotion criteria for party loyalists are
credible (because of checks and balances inside the ruling party and heavy investments in
human resource management that would be lost if the criteria were violated), so also is the
reward structure for anti-insurgents, since they come from the pool of party loyalists. In
democracies, if political competitors can make broadly credible promises to citizens to
provide public goods, one key public good is law and order. Anti-insurgency capacity is a
by-product of the provision of law and order more generally; governments that renege on
their contracts with anti-insurgents undermine the provision of law and order and renege on
their promises to citizens, incurring a reputation loss.
The second solution relates to the second credibility gap, the inability of anti-
insurgents to credibly promise not to overthrow leaders. By offering a high enough share of
rents to anti-insurgents, rulers can make the contract with them self-enforcing. Anti-
insurgents have no incentive to overthrow the ruler, since the additional rents they could
obtain are low relative to the costs of overthrow; the ruler has no incentive to renege on the
agreement with anti-insurgents, since they can overthrow him if he does. This is an
expensive solution: the rent share necessary to make it succeed may far exceed the effort
anti-insurgents must invest to put down any rebellion. The cost of the solution is therefore a
substantial disincentive to the formation of a large and capable anti-insurgency force (similar
to the argument in Gehlbach and Keefer, 2006, that autocrats are more reluctant to
institutionalize a large ruling party when the rents they sacrifice are too high).
Leaders can lower the costs of this second solution by making it more difficult for
anti-insurgents to overthrow them. For example, they could increase coordination costs of
anti-insurgents by creating separate and competing anti-insurgency units, by rotating unit
leaders frequently, or by putting family members in command of the units. Haber
(forthcoming) makes a similar argument in the context of dictators who would like to
3Rulers also compensate anti-insurgents extra-contractually, by providing them opportunities for looting or
drug-dealing, for example. These strategies effectively reduce R.
8
prevent their supporters from overthrowing them, but would still like to make credible
promises to them. This strategy has two defects. It weakens anti-insurgency capacity, since
uncles and brothers may be incompetent. And it potentially unravels the self-enforcing
nature of the agreement, if the costs of overthrow are so great that the only credible
compensation that rulers can offer anti-insurgents are less than E, the effort they will expend
to put down rebellion.
Rulers who can make broadly credible promises solve the dilemma at lower cost. As
ruler credibility with the whole population rises, anti-insurgents are more likely to confront
citizen opposition should they mount a coup. In addition, the same institutional
arrangements that allow rulers to make credible commitments to the population at large also
allow them to make credible commitments to anti-insurgents not to renege on agreements
with them. Credible rulers therefore have more degrees of freedom in creating multiple or
competing anti-insurgent groups to mitigate the threat of overthrow.
The ability of political leaders to make credible promises to large numbers of citizens
is part and parcel of their ability to deter insurgency. In democracies the key credibility
question is whether voters generally believe the pre-electoral promises of political
competitors. In non-democracies, the question is whether (and how many) supporters of
unelected leaders believe the promises of the leadership. The prediction in either case is that
the more credible leaders are to a broad segment of the population, the less likely are
insurgencies.
Credibility and alternative explanations for civil war
Testing whether the lack of political credibility breeds insurgency is complicated by
other prominent explanations of conflict, income and poverty, natural resource rents, and
social polarization. Scholars differ regarding the precise causal chains leading from these
factors to a greater risk of insurgency. In all cases, though, it is straightforward to identify an
important role for the credibility of political commitments to the public, making it more
difficult to disentangle the underlying influence of political credibility on civil war.
The literature offers several explanations for the significance of income per capita as
a determinant of civil war. Fearon and Laitin (2003) argue that income captures government
capacity to build administrative, military and police capability. This encourages insurgencies
because, whether in poor or rich countries, insurgents are usually obliged to make the same
9
technological choices for war-fighting. They rarely control airports, for example, rendering
air power useless. Richer states, on the other hand, can adopt better anti-insurgency
technologies than poorer states.
This argument is plausible, but it is not clear empirically how constrained even poor
countries are in their access to better technology. For example, military spending as a
fraction of GDP does not fall with income per capita; if anything, it rises. Sri Lanka, India
and Pakistan, despite roughly similar incomes per capita, exhibit vast differences in military
spending: Pakistan spends twice as much as India and Sri Lanka 50 percent more,
differences that seem more correlated with the fraction of their territory that the countries
view as vulnerable to armed dispute than with differences in their incomes per capita.4
Finally, even to the extent that income is a binding constraint on capacity, it is not clear how
much of an advantage high technology buys in deterring insurgency.
Hegre, et al (2001) argue, instead, that as incomes rise, class conflicts moderate and
opposing segments of society are more amenable to peaceful resolutions of their
disagreements. One indicator of class-based mobilization is the existence of political parties
advocating the interests of different classes. The argument here predicts that it is precisely
the absence of such parties that makes conflict more likely. The tests below examine this
thesis directly, showing that direct measures of programmatic ­ possibly class-based ­ parties
reduce the probability of insurgency.
Political credibility may offer a more persuasive explanation for the significance of
income as a determinant of conflict. Broad political credibility is a determinant of income
per capita: where politicians can make more broadly credible promises, investment is less
risky and public good provision higher. These policy effects are well-known to increase
country incomes. Hence, omitted credibility measures create a positive association between
poverty and insurgency. Credibility also explains why state capacity is greater in higher
income countries: state capacity is a public good that broadly credible politicians have a
greater incentive to provide. For example, law and order and strong administrative capacity,
from which anti-insurgency capacity springs, benefit all citizens. The earlier discussion
predicts that such public goods will be under-provided in low credibility states. In fact,
4 India, with purchasing power parity-adjusted income per capita of $2,312 in 1999, is richer than Pakistan,
with income of $1,818, but poorer than Sri Lanka ($3,229).
10
Keefer (2005) presents evidence that the rule of law and bureaucratic quality are both lower
in low-credibility democracies.
The political advantages of making broadly credible commitments are also fewer in
poorer countries. Poorer voters are more susceptible to targeted transfers than richer voters
(Dixit and Londregan 1996). The political advantages of relying on clientelist strategies that
target the few voters who believe politician promises are therefore greater in poorer
countries, reducing political incentives to invest in credibility, but also increasing insurgency
incentives and giving rise to an association between insurgency and income that runs
through political credibility. 5
Natural resource rents are another prominent determinant of insurgency. Collier and
Hoeffler (1998) and Elbadawi and Sambanis (2002) argue that access to these rents is both a
goal of rebel movements and a way for rebel movements to finance themselves. Political
credibility affects the influence of rents on insurgency in several ways, however. Rents
increase insurgency risk by reducing ruler incentives to build the institutions that allow them
to make credible commitments. In fact, there is a strong negative correlation between those
countries coded by Fearon and Laitin (2003) as oil exporters and the variables used below to
capture the extent to which politicians can make broadly credible promises to voters.
The introduction of rents also encourages rulers to dismantle pre-existing institutions
that allow them to make credible commitments, increasing the risk of civil war. When
natural resource rents rise, the benefits to rulers of credible institutions (their share of rents
from higher investment) fall relative to the costs of these institutions (the natural resource
rents they must share). Their preference is therefore to reduce the share of the population
benefiting from these institutions when rents increase. Moore (2004) provides an illustration
of the discovery of oil leading to new and more circumscribed institutional arrangements.
Prior to the discovery of oil, Kuwaiti merchants shared control with the sheiks of the
dominant al-Sabah family: "Manpower and financial power gave Kuwaiti merchants an early
sense of equality with the ruling al-Sabahs. . . Commerce was not viewed as subordinate to
politics. Indeed, politics needed commerce (p. 31)." However, with the discovery of oil in
1938, "The elected municipality board, which had served as an asil [elite] merchant enclave
5The fact that the lack of political credibility might be both a cause and consequence of low incomes suggests
the possibility of a credibility-based poverty trap. Keefer and Vlaicu (2005) anticipate such a possibility,
proving that where the costs to politicians of clientelist electoral strategies are sufficiently low, they will delay
the investments needed to make their promises broadly credible.
11
since 1932, was replaced with an appointed board of shaikhs. As royal family members took
control of government ministries, merchant committees within those bodies, designed to
provide policy input, were disbanded (p. 42)."
However, those who are protected under the umbrella of credible institutions (say,
members of the ruling party) are better able to organize themselves to oppose the ruler than
citizens at large. We might therefore observe, at least over some range of these institutions,
a greater incidence of civil war among countries with more credible institutions and greater
natural resource rents. Specifically, when the share of the population benefiting from these
institutions is initially low, leader efforts to reduce this population affects few citizens:
violence associated with such changes is unlikely to be so extensive as to be recorded as a
civil war. Over some medium range, though, the violence associated with ruler efforts to
reduce this population are more likely to be manifested as civil war. However, when the
share of this population is high, rulers simply do not propose large changes in the
institutional arrangements: the high risk of successful insurgency exceeds their potential
gains in rent share. This is consistent with notable natural resource success stories, such as
Norway, that exhibit both high natural resource rents and political credibility. Norwegian
institutions of political credibility included multiple political parties able to make credible
promises to all Norwegians.
The essential endogeneity of institutional arrangements drives the counter-intuitive
result that higher quality institutions (those that make political commitments credible) might
be associated with a heightened risk of civil war when higher natural resource rents are
observed. This conclusion contrasts with others in the literature that point to the mitigating
effect of high quality institutions on the resource curse. Mehlum, et al. (2006) argue that the
effect of natural resource rents on growth may actually be positive when institutions are
friendly to producers. By institutions, however, they mean secure property and contractual
rights. These are also endogenous choices of rulers, however.
Robinson et al. (2006) conclude as well that high quality institutions mitigate the
natural resource curse. In their work, high quality institutions are those that restrict ruler
ability to distribute natural resource rents as patronage. Key to patronage in their model is
the (exogenously given) ability of rulers to make credible promises to some groups in society
and not others. If rulers can offer no credible promises of patronage to anyone, the
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distortionary effects of natural resource rents diminish. As in the analysis here, more
credibility implicitly worsens the resource curse in their model.
Scholars have found, using various measures, that polarization is also a determinant
of civil war (Reynal-Querol 2002 and Soysa 2002). Sharp differences in policy preferences
across social groupings create social cleavages that increase insurgent pressures. Social
polarization is endogenous to political decision making, however. The credibility arguments
here explain one way in which politics and polarization interact. Non-credible politicians
seek to expand the set of citizens to whom they can make credible commitments. In socially
fragmented countries, the low cost way for them to do this may be by making ethnic or
religious appeals. Politicians build a reputation for policy stances favoring particular ethnic
groups, but in broadening the reach of their credible commitments, they exacerbate political
polarization. Van de Walle (2003) documents this in the case of emerging African
democracies, where he finds the overwhelming organizational principle of new political
parties is ethnic or linguistic.
The effect is, as with natural resources, non-linear. In purely clientelist political
systems, even if politicians make personalized promises exclusively to members of one social
group, most members of that group will not benefit from them. Political competition
therefore does not exacerbate social polarization. In political systems where politicians can
make credible promises to all citizens, they compete on the base of broad issues such as
growth or education quality, or on multi-dimensional issues that cross social cleavages.
Again, political competition does not exacerbate social polarization. In intermediate cases,
however, where politicians can make credible commitments only to specific ethnic or
religious groups, competition for office worsens polarization.6
The two kinds of fragmentation considered here, religious and ethnic, differ in an
important respect. The organization needed to generate social polarization out of social
fragmentation already exists in the case of religious fragmentation, since religious groups are,
in most cases, already organized. Religious polarization requires only that the leaders of
religious organizations adopt a political agenda. Institutions of political credibility are not a
6The analysis in Robinson et al. (2006) is analagous: if politicians can offer no credible promises of patronage
to anyone, they point out, the distortionary effects of natural resource rents diminish. On the other hand, as is
well-established in the literature reviewed earlier, when politicians can make credible promises to the whole
population, competition for citizen support forces political competitors to pursue policies that improve social
welfare more broadly.
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necessary condition for religious polarization. This is not the case with respect to ethnic
fragmentation: ethnic groups are politically organized only if politicians organize them.
Measuring credibility
The estimations below use political measures that are new to the conflict literature:
the continuous years of competitive elections; years in office of the executive and the age of
the largest government party; and a dichotomous variable tracking whether the main
government party is programmatic or not. Each of these indirectly measures the degree to
which politicians can make credible promises to citizens. The years of continuing
competitive elections is from the Database of Political Institutions (Beck, et al. 2001) and
covers the period 1975-2004. This variable takes a zero in countries where leaders have not
been elected by competitive elections (elections in which multiple candidates compete in
legislative and executive elections and none gets more than 75% of the vote, as judged by the
Legislative and Executive Index of Electoral Competitiveness from the DPI).
The continuing years of competitive elections have a striking effect on a broad array
of policy outcomes, ranging from corruption and bureaucratic quality to government control
of the print media and public investment (Keefer 2005). The only theoretical explanation
that fits this pattern of results (younger democracies provide fewer public goods, more
targeted goods and are more corrupt) is that politicians in younger democracies are less able
to make credible promises to a large fraction of the electorate (Keefer 2005).
The difference between the age of the largest government party and the years in
office of the executive are measures of party institutionalization. Parties are more
institutionalized the less dependent they are on individual leaders. From the foregoing
discussion, we expect that where the government party is older than the executive's tenure in
office, it is more likely that party institutions can constrain the executive from reneging on
agreements with party members. The larger is the age of the party relative to the executive's
years in office, therefore, the lower should be the likelihood of conflict.
The final political variable that is considered below is dichotomous, indicating
whether the main governing party is programmatic. The DPI indicates whether parties can
be judged as right, left, or center. If they can be, this is an indication that they can make
more programmatic appeals to citizens. The DPI assessment of this variable is based on
sparse information. However, Keefer (2005b) compares this variable to detailed regional
14
studies of programmatic parties (e.g., Jones 2005 in Latin America and Kitschelt, et al. 1999
in Eastern Europe) and finds a high correlation. Moreover, in this same study, he presents
evidence that the extent to which countries exhibit programmatic parties has a similar impact
on government policy choices as the number of years of continuing competitive elections.
All of these regime characteristics are new to the conflict literature, which generally
uses the degree of democratization to characterize polities, as measured broadly by the 20
point Polity democracy-autocracy measure (Jaggers and Gurr 1995). Although Polity has
much greater year coverage than any other political dataset, it does not have data on political
parties that are an essential element of the analysis here. In addition, the Polity democracy-
autocracy measure are more difficult to interpret than the DPI variables. The Polity
democracy measure is a composite of other Polity variables, each assigned a weight and then
added together to give the final democracy score. By construction, similar democracy
measures over time can be associated with significantly different configurations of the
component indicators, as long as they add up to the same final number. Similarly, quite
different models for constraining executives or electing leaders could drive similar values of
the component variables that comprise the democracy measure.
Finally, the qualitative nature of the Polity variable also makes it more susceptible to
bias. This is particularly important in civil war research. Hegre, et al. (2001) and others, for
example, find that countries with intermediate values of the Polity measure are most
vulnerable to civil war. Their operationalization of the Polity measure is common in the
literature. However, countries can fall into the intermediate category for several reasons.
One is the violent overthrow of the regime, which leads Polity evaluators to downgrade the
country with respect to the institutionalization of political competition (PARREG), one of
the elements of the Polity democracy index. To the extent that this is the case, the Polity
measure is, by construction, endogenous to insurgency.
Data and Specification
While the political measures used in the analysis below are new to the conflict
literature, the measure of insurgency, control variables and the econometric specifications
used follow the literature closely. Specifically, the core specification uses the Correlates of
War conflict data (Doyle and Sambanis) and the control variables employed by Fearon and
Laitin (2003), where further details on these variables can be found. Among the criteria to
15
determine whether a country experienced civil war are these three: the conflict caused more
than 1,000 deaths, it threatened the sovereignty of the state, and rebel opposition to the state
was militarily organized.
The approach here follows Fearon and Laitin (2003) and others, using a logistic
specification to estimate the following:
(Onset of Conflict)it = f(political variables, income/capita, ln(population), ln(mountainous),
oil, ethnic fractionalization, religious fractionalization, and the non-contiguity of state
territory)i,t-1 + it.
Population and geographical variables capture the ease of mounting an insurgency; oil a
dummy variable constructed by Fearon and Laitin indicating whether a country is a
significant oil exporter; and fractionalization variables proxy for social polarization.7 All
variables are measured the year before the onset of conflict in year t.
A key issue in specification and sample selection is the treatment of three
determinants of conflict that the earlier discussion suggests are likely to be endogenous to
political credibility: income per capita, ethnic and religious fractionalization, and oil. For
example, the earlier discussion indicates that credibility is more difficult to build when
incomes are low; and low credibility inhibits public policies that would accelerate growth and
investment. Controlling for income therefore spuriously drives out the credibility effects
captured by the political variables used here. Nevertheless, in all but one set of regressions,
all of these variables are included in all specifications.
The exception is the specifications that use the whole sample of countries, rich and
poor. In these, no political variables are significant when income per capita is included;
income is therefore always omitted in the sample of all countries. The omission of income
has two possible consequences. First, it prevents us from observing the effects on
insurgency of those components of income that are exogenous to political credibility. That
is, even across countries that lack growth-promoting political institutions, incomes vary
significantly. This is because countries vary in their endowments (size, natural resources,
proximity to richer countries). Income is a worse proxy for these endowments when the
7 Fractionalization variables also enter in other ways in the literature to better capture polarization as defined
axiomatically by Esteban and Ray (1994): quadratically, in Keefer and Knack (2002), or transformed according
to a formula that links fractionalization more precisely to their formalization of polarization, in Reynal-Querol
(2002). The focus here, however, is on the political variables and the linear specification was retained.
16
institutional environment is better, since this raises the fraction of income that is dependent
on the institutional environment rather than natural endowments. The analysis below
therefore considers poorer countries separately, adding a control for income per capita.
This strategy recognizes that the vast majority of civil wars occur in countries that are
poorer than the world median in the year that they occur. In the period 1975 ­ 2000, 57
conflicts broke out in countries with income per capita at or less than the world median.
Moreover, of the remaining 15 countries in which conflict occurred, nine had no income
data. Of these, at least six were near or below the median per capita in the year before war
broke out.8 Examining poorer countries separately is therefore a sensible estimation strategy
regardless of concerns about spurious multicollinearity in the right hand side variable, unless
one has strong priors that the dynamics of civil war are on average the same in poor and rich
countries. The arguments above suggest that these priors should be in the opposite
direction, however.
The second hazard of omitting income per capita is the possibility that income
captures non-political determinants of civil war that are themselves correlated with the
political variables. In this case, the omission of income gives rise to a spurious correlation
between the political variables and the probability of insurgency. This hazard seems slight,
however. In fact, the foregoing arguments make a strong argument in the opposite
direction: that the effects of income per capita advanced in the literature are more
appropriately tested precisely with the political variables employed here.
Does political credibility reduce the risk of conflict?
Table 1 presents estimates of the effects of political variables for all countries. All of
the political variables are significant in each of the three specifications in Table 1. Their
effects are also economically meaningful. To see this more clearly, the table reports the odds
ratios, constant across parameter values, rather than coefficient values.9 The presence of a
programmatic governing party reduces the odds of conflict by half relative to the odds in
countries lacking a programmatic governing party. Every additional year by which the age of
8 Azerbaijan, Moldova, Georgia, Liberia, Afghanistan and Yemen.
9 The odds ratios tell us how the odds of conflict change after a one-unit increase in the independent variable
relative to before the increase. That is, if the odds prior to the change in variable are 3:1 and the odds after are
4:1, the odds ratio is 1.33. The marginal effects of coefficient changes estimated from logistic specifications
depends on parameter values.
17
the governing party exceeds the years a ruler has been in office reduces the odds of conflict
by approximately two percent a year.
Among other determinants of insurgency, oil is statistically significant in only one
regression; religious and ethnic fractionalization are significant determinants of insurgency in
all cases. Consistent with the earlier arguments that these operate through their credibility
effects, the omission of any of them substantially boosts the significance of the two party
variables. Population size is also significant: countries with larger populations have a greater
likelihood of experiencing conflict in this specification, as others have found.10
More than 85 percent of conflicts occur in poorer countries. It is reasonable to
suspect, therefore, that different processes might generate insurgency in poor countries and
to ask whether the determinants of insurgency are the same in richer and poorer countries.
Table 2 reports the results of regressions that, in every year, consider only countries at or
below the median income. These specifications include income per capita; the political results
strengthen if income is excluded, as in Table 1. Nevertheless, despite the presence of
income per capita, the relevant political variables are highly significant and the odds ratios
are little changed from the results in Table 1.
Equally important, however, is that the significance of other commonly investigated
correlates of rebellion changes substantially in poorer countries. Though income is
significant in the sample of all countries, it is insignificant in the sample of poor countries in
Table 2. It appears that income effects are driven by the complete absence of conflicts
among the richest 30 percent of countries, excluded in Table 2. The effects of oil exports
and ethnic and religious fractionalization all fall significantly compared to Table 1. This is
not due to the inclusion of income per capita; if income is excluded, ethnic fractionalization
and oil exports remain insignificant.
The hypotheses related to the institutionalization of political parties are relevant to
both democracies and non-democracies. Since most civil wars occur in non-democracies,
Table 3 reports the results of tests only among non-democracies (the years of continuing
competitive elections are omitted, since they are obviously meaningless in the context of this
subsample). Two sets of regressions are presented, those looking only at democracies using
10 Collier and Hoeffler (1998) attribute this to the increased desire for secession in larger countries. Fearon
and Laitin (2003) point to the greater difficulties that larger populations create for control by the state. The
argument in this paper suggests a third explanation: the costs to politicians of making credible appeals to
citizens rises with population size.
18
the specification of Table 1; and those looking only at poor non-democracies, using the
specification of Table 2.
The presence of a programmatic governing party has an even stronger effect on
outcomes (the presence of a programmatic party lowers the odds of conflict more than in
Table 2), whether one looks at all non-democracies, or only poor non-democracies. The
same is true for the party age variable, looking only at poor democracies. While the party
age variable is insignificant in the sample of all non-democracies, other common
determinants of conflict are uniformly insignificant across all four regressions. Income per
capita is insignificant in the sample of poor non-democracies. The magnitudes of the effects
of oil exports and religious and ethnic fractionalization drop substantially; they are
insignificant in both sub-samples. Only population, among the alternative explanations of
insurgency, continues to matter.
Do credible institutions exacerbate the effect of oil on conflict?
The earlier discussion predicts, first, that oil rents discourage rulers from adopting
institutions that ensure broad political credibility. Second, to the extent that those
institutions already exist, rulers have incentives to reverse them in order to increase their
rents from the natural resources. The presence of these institutions therefore may increase
the probability of civil war when natural resource rents are high.
Evidence supports both of these contentions. Each of the three indicators of
political credibility is significantly lower in oil exporting than non-oil exporting countries,
controlling for other broad country characteristics that might influence regime choice,
including income per capita, land area, the fraction of the population that is rural and the
fraction that is young. In these simple estimations oil exporters exhibit, on average, 7.5
fewer years of continuous years of competitive elections; 15 years less difference between
the age of the governing party and the years in office of the executive; and a 16.6 percent
lower probability of exhibiting a programmatic ruling party. Ross (2001) similarly finds that
fuel exports as a fraction of GDP reduce the Polity measure of democracy.
The second implication of the earlier discussion is that over some range, increases in
the fraction of society protected by institutions of credible commitment exacerbate the
effects of natural resource rents on conflict. higher rents give rulers incentives to dismantle
institutions, but since the beneficiaries of these institutions are better organized than citizens
19
generally, they have more opportunity to launch an organized military response. The
threshold value of the institutional variables at which this ceases to be true (at which rulers
refrain from responding to rent increases by changing the rules of the game because the
share of the population that benefits from institutions of credible commitment is so large)
cannot be specified ex ante. However, one can reasonably assume that the richest countries
are also the countries in which the highest fraction of society is protected by institutions of
credible commitment.
To evaluate this hypothesis, the regressions in Tables 1, 2 and 3 are augmented with
an interaction term between the political variable and oil variable. The interaction is
expected to be positive (increasing the probability of conflict) as long as the political variable
is below the threshold at which the ruler decides the risk of civil war outweighs the potential
rent gains. To the extent that the effect is non-linear and that countries with the highest
incomes are those where institutions protect the largest fraction of the population, we expect
the interaction term to be least significant in the Table 1 regressions, including all countries,
than in the other regressions.
The first three columns of Table 4 report just the interaction coefficients between
the oil dummy and the corresponding political variable from the corresponding augmented
regressions in Tables 1, 2 and 3. As before, the odds ratios are reported: odds ratios greater
than one and positive indicate that political institutions exacerbate the odds of civil war
when oil rents increase. As expected, in the sample of all countries, including those for
which institutional coverage extends to most citizens, the interaction is weakest, though still
highly significant in the case of programmatic parties. However, among poor countries and
non-democracies, rich and poor, six out of seven interactions are statistically significant (and
the seventh nearly so): natural resource rents have a significantly more negative effect in
countries with higher values of the credibility variables.
Do credible institutions exacerbate the conflict effects of social fragmentation?
The variables used to capture social polarization in the literature and in the
regressions here describe the possibility of polarization, as given by the distribution of ethnic
or religious types in the society. The earlier arguments suggest that fragmentation should
result in polarization (and, hence, insurgency) only when politicians can make credible
promises to treat some social groups systematically better than others. The fragmentation
20
variables are therefore more likely to turn into polarization and to drive insurgency in more
credible political settings. To see if this is true, an interaction term between fragmentation
and political variables are added to the regressions in Tables 1, 2 and 3. As in the natural
resource case, the interaction effect should be insignificant above an institutional threshold
that cannot be identified ex ante. For the same reason, the interaction term is expected to be
least significant in the Table 1 sample that includes the richest countries, where the most
citizens are likely to be protected by institutions of credible commitment.
The first three columns of Table 4 report the estimated interaction coefficients of
ethnic fragmentation and political variables from the corresponding regressions in Tables 1,
2 and 3. The earlier discussion concluded that the political variables are not necessary
conditions for religious fragmentation to become religious polarization since religions, for
the most part, are already organized. Consistent with this, religious interaction terms are
nowhere significant and are not reported. As in the natural resource case, the ethnic
interaction term is least significant in the sample including the richest countries.
Nevertheless, the interaction with programmatic parties significantly increases the risk of
civil war. The interaction term is significant in five of the remaining seven cases. Taken
together, the results in Table 4 provide strong evidence that, although the political variable
reduces the odds of conflict, this effect is weaker the more a country is ethnically fragmented
or endowed with natural resources.
Institutions of credible commitment versus constitutional institutions
Reynal-Querol (2002) concludes that more inclusive democracies (those with
proportional representation as opposed to majoritarian or presidential systems) limit the
odds of ethnic civil war. With only fifteen democracies experiencing civil war in the data
used here, these propositions are difficult to investigate. However, the Database of Political
Institutions contains variables with which to examine at least the robustness of the credibility
variables of concern here and to revisit the question of how institutions affect conflict. The
three key variables are controls for whether countries are parliamentary, or presidential or
semi-presidential; whether they are majoritarian, as reflected in their district magnitudes (low
indicates more majoritarian) and whether they use plurality or majoritarian electoral rules.
The addition of these formal institutional variables has no effect on the results
reported in Tables 1 and 2: the significance of the credibilty variables is little changed. The
21
effect of these formal institutions on the probability of civil war also differs from previous
research. Neither district magnitudes nor electoral proportionality are significant
determinants of insurgency. Regime type has a significant effect, but contrary to
expectations, the odds of a conflict occurring are significantly higher in parliamentary systems.
This result contrasts with predictions in the insurgency literature, and is related to an
ongoing debate in the literature regarding the stability of presidential and parliamentary
systems. Cheibub (2006) also finds that presidential systems, contrary to received wisdom,
are not less stable once one controls for whether democracy is preceded by military
government or not.
Conclusion
The credibility of political promises plays a crucial role in "normal" politics. The
evidence presented here shows that it also heavily influences the transition from normal
politics to civil war. In both democratic and non-democratic countries, where political
actors are unable to make credible promises to a sufficient fraction of citizens, not only does
the tolerance for insurgent movements increase (because incomes are lower and public
policy more likely to be welfare-reducing when political competitors are not credible), but
the willingness of governments to build anti-insurgency capacity declines. As a consequence,
and whether proxied by the age of the ruling party or whether it is programmatic, or by the
years of continuing competitive elections, political credibility significantly reduces the
probability of civil war.
At the same time, though, countries in which politicians are partially credible are
more vulnerable to civil war caused by social polarization or natural resource rents.
Politicians seeking to expand their ability to make impersonal credible commitments in the
context of an ethnically fragmented society may be tempted to build links with particular
ethnic groups, giving them incentives to make ethnically-targeted policies that polarize
society and trigger civil war. An increase in natural resource rents, on the other hand, leads
rulers to dismantle institutions that allow them to make credible promises to a larger fraction
of the population. This again increases the probability of civil war. It is in this sense of
partial credibility that notions of partial or incompletely consolidated democratization may
pose special risks of violence and civil war.
22
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25
Table 1: Credibility, omitting income per capita
Dependent variable: conflict onset (0-1)
Age of the largest party ­ Years .987
in office (0.04)
Years of continuous competitive .959
elections (0.02)
Largest government party .507
programmatic? (1-0) (0.05)
Income/capita
Ln(Population) 1.186 1.145 1.175
(0.06) (0.12) (0.07)
Oil 1.797 1.466 1.387
(0.04) (0.15) (0.31)
Ethnic fractionalization 3.036 2.890 3.486
(0.05) (0.07) (0.03)
Religious fractionalization 4.174 4.074 3.301
(0.05) (0.04) (0.06)
N (country-years) 2603 2822 2847
Log-likelihood -272.233 -298.801 -310.844
Pseudo R2 0.059 0.057 0.054
Note: Logistic estimation with clustered standard errors. All time-varying independent
variables lagged one year. Odds-ratios reported with p-values in parentheses: coefficient values
below one indicate the odds of conflict increase with increases in the corresponding variable. p-values for
years and party age calculated assuming the interaction term is zero. Political variables from
the Database of Political Institutions, conflict variables from Correlates of War, and control
variables from Fearon and Laitin (2003). All variables are from year t-1, where the crisis year
is t. Other independent variables (non-contiguous state territory, mountainous terrain) and
constant not reported.
26
Table 2: Credibility effects in poor countries
Dependent variable: conflict onset (0-1)
Age of the largest party ­ Years .982
in office (0.04)
Years of continuous competitive .968
elections (0.10)
Largest government party .572
programmatic? (1-0) (0.11)
Income/capita .597 .631 .653
(0.14) (0.16) (0.20)
Ln(Population) 1.178 1.135 1.155
(0.07) (0.21) (0.10)
Oil 1.558 1.266 1.152
(0.21) (0.55) (0.72)
Ethnic fractionalization .687 .967 .926
(0.54) (0.96) (0.89)
Religious fractionalization 2.741 2.33 2.961
(0.20) (0.29) (0.14)
N (country-years) 1272 1353 1377
Log-likelihood -185.416 -203.590 -211.887
Pseudo R2 0.047 0.034 0.043
Note: Logistic estimation with clustered standard errors. All time-varying independent
variables lagged one year. Odds-ratios reported with p-values in parentheses: coefficient values
below one indicate the odds of conflict increase with increases in the corresponding variable. p-values for
years and party age calculated assuming the interaction term is zero. Political variables from
the Database of Political Institutions, conflict variables from Correlates of War, and control
variables from Fearon and Laitin (2003). All variables are from year t-1, where the crisis year
is t. Other independent variables (non-contiguous state territory, mountainous terrain) and
constant not reported. Poor countries in year t are those with incomes below world median
in year t.
27
Table 3: Credibility effects in non-democracies
Dependent variable: All non-democracies Poor non-democracies
conflict onset, (0-1)
Age of the largest party ­ .990 .980
Years in office (0.35) (0.09)
Largest government party .469 .407
programmatic? (1-0) (0.05) (0.04)
(gov1rlc_dum)
Income/capita .597 .680
(0.20) (0.32)
Ln(Population) 1.277 1.250 1.298 1.224
(0.06) (0.04) (0.09) (0.15)
Oil 1.314 1.080 1.049 .883
(0.41) (0.82) (0.94) (0.83)
Ethnic fractionalization 1.519 1.520 .536 .656
(0.51) (0.52) (0.38) (0.50)
Religious fractionalization 3.623 2.820 2.399 2.093
(0.16) (0.41) (0.45)
(0.20)
N (country-years) 1553 1678 1019 1058
Log-likelihood -202.658 -215.868 -149.379 -156.230
Pseudo R2 0.038 0.040 0.041 0.046
Note: Logistic estimation with clustered standard errors. All time-varying independent
variables lagged one year. Odds-ratios reported with p-values in parentheses: coefficient values
below one indicate the odds of conflict increase with increases in the corresponding variable. p-values for
years and party age calculated assuming the interaction term is zero. Political variables from
the Database of Political Institutions, conflict variables from Correlates of War, and control
variables from Fearon and Laitin (2003). All variables are from year t, where the crisis year is
t+1. Other independent variables (non-contiguous state territory, mountainous terrain) and
constant not reported. Poor countries in year t are those with incomes below world median
in year t.
28
Table 4: Credibility, natural resources and social polarization
Dependent variable: Oil exporter interacted with Ethnic fragmentation interacted with
conflict onset
Party age ­ Years of Program- Party age ­ Years of Program-
Specification and sample: years in elections matic years in elections matic
office party? office party?
All countries (Table 1) 1.01 .98 5.04 .99 1.14 22.16
(.69) (.74) (.01) (.687) (.224) (.001)
Poor countries (Table 2) 1.09 1.35 8.20 1.05 1.32 17.46
(.011) (.085) (.001) (.077) (.039) (.013)
All non-democracies (Table 1.01 NA 4.26 1.00 NA 16.76
3) (0.759) (.081) (.913) (.055)
Poor non-democracies 1.07 NA 6.06 1.06 NA 10.97
(Table 3) (.112) (.052) (.076) (.18)
Note: See notes, Tables 1 ­ 3. Each cell contains the estimated coefficient of the interaction term added to the regression specification in the
corresponding table; each cell represents a different regression. Coefficients are odds-ratios; p-statistics are based on robust, clustered standard errors.