Five to follow at the Dubai World Cup Carnival

Dubai racing expert Stephen Molyneux nominates five horses to keep onside during the Carnival at Meydan.

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Whilst very tempting to stick five horses trained by Charlie Appleby or Saeed bin Suroor as ones to follow for the Carnival, I will try and veer from the norm, and hopefully this quintet of horses can pay their way over the next three months.

Horse Profiles

It has taken a while, and no doubt plenty of patience from Mike de Kock, to get Baroot Carnival rated but now that he is, this could be his season to flourish. With turf opportunities limited for horses rated below 95 in the UAE, Baroot has had to spend quite a lot of his time on the dirt but last year he progressed from a mark of 84 to 99 having had six successive starts on the green stuff and that should set him nicely for this campaign. His one run at Carnival level saw him compete admirably with a second placing to Kidmenever and this strong travelling sort should find races panning out nicely for him whether they be over 1600m or 1800m.

Godolphin may well prove to be impenetrable in the Classic division but Bila Shak could be worth chancing on the back of a solid UAE debut that saw him chase home Walking Thunder. It was an effort that contained significant promise given the way the stable usually operate, and it worth noting that Lacienegaboulevard also represented Fawzi Nass in that race (finished sixth beaten 12 and a quarter lengths) and came out next time to finish a close third. Bila Shak was undoubtedly held back by inexperience, slow to stride then keen before making good headway midway through the race to chase home one with the benefit or previous experience on the surface. Blessed with plenty of size and substance, Bila Shak is related to the smart Giovanni Boldini and should improve a lot for that initial outing.

I say ‘try’ and veer from the norm but I can’t not include Dubhe who still looks very well treated off a mark of 99. He did hold an initial entry for the opening meeting but has been saved for another day and I suspect Charlie Appleby’s patience with this son of Dubawi will be rewarded in time. He has had just the five starts, only one of them coming as a three-year-old, a run that saw him beat Communique by four lengths at Sandown in April. Communique was rated just 84 back then but ended the season running off 109 so there is clear scope for Dubhe to make a mockery of his mark. Out of an Irish Oaks winner, there is also clear potential for Dubhe stepping up in trip with the one nagging doubt about him being the fact he is unraced on faster than good, but Meydan has such a good covering of grass it is rarely lightning fast.

Janszoon progressed well last season when the right races presented themselves and he could still make an impact off his current mark of 104. A winner of two of his first three starts, he then finished third in a Carnival handicap behind Gold Star before completing his campaign with three runs in Group company. The second of those saw him finish runner-up behind Light The Lights at Abu Dhabi, the trip too far more recently in the Dubai Gold Cup. He has since moved yards to Sandeep Jadhav and could be the ideal mount for stable jockey, Mickael Barzalona, given he seemed to improve last year when more patient tactics were employed.

New Trails has taken well to the dirt and it is to be hoped his trainer opts to try and take advantage of his current mark of 99 rather than shoot for the stars. I say that as he was chucked into a Listed race on just his second UAE start when finishing second to Cosmo Charlie, his performance there earning him a 4 lb rise. Prior to that he had made a winning dirt debut when seeing off surface regulars Street Of Dreams and Dehbashi with a subsequent winner, Key Bid, back in fourth. He has taken to the surface very well, travelling powerfully in his races, and being a half-brother to a Grade 2 winner in the States, he has the scope to rate a lot higher still.

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