Primary Sources from the Talmud:

We shall start from the תנו רבנן close to the bottom of the page, right before is an interesting discussion of permissible and forbidden magic, which is somewhat relevant, but while a recommend reading it, it is not directly related to this discussion other than the fact that it endorses the notion that supernatural ends could be accomplished through ספר יצירה. Anyhow, I will quote from תנו רבנן:

Our Rabbis have taught:a MeOnen מעונן : Rabbi Shimon says – this is one who passes seven types of semen over his eyes (and practices witchcraft through that). The Chachamin say – this is one who fools the eyes. Rabbi Akiva says – this is one who calculates times and hours and says today is a good day to go out, tomorrow is a good day to buy … Our Rabbis have taught a MeNachesh מנחש is one who says “his bread fell from his mouth, his staff fell from his hand, his son calls him from behind, a crow calls him, a deer stopped on the path, a snake on his right and a fox on his left, do not request from me in the morning, on the new month, after the Sabbath”. Our Rabbi have taught לא תנחשו לא תעוננו like those who predict based in weasels, birds and fish.

Some clarifications:

Rabbi Shimon and the Chachamin seem to interpret the root word of MeOnen – מעונן as עין – eye, whereas Rabbi Akiva seems to interpret the root word to be עונה -season (or period of time).

The list enumerated in MeNachesh – מנחש is a list of supposed bad omens.

The concept of not asking in the morning is referring to a creditor requesting payment, and the debtor requesting that he not “start off” the day, week or month with an action of payment, coming from a belief that this will bring bad luck for the whole day / week / month.

Our Rabbis have taught: We do not anoint kings anywhere other than by a spring, so what their kingship should continue … Rabbi Ami says: someone who wants to know if he shall survive the year or not – he should place a candle in the ten days between Rosh HaShana and Yom HaKippurim in a room where no wind blows – if the flame continues he will know that he will survive the year. One who intends to do a business transaction and would like to know whether it will succeed or not – he should raise a rooster, if it becomes fat and good, then the business will succeed. Someone who intends to travel and would like to know if he will come home or not … Abaye says, now that you have said that an omen is meaningful, in should accustom himself to see on the New Year gourds, beans, leeks, beets and dates…

So obviously, we must find the difference between prognosticating based on a fat rooster – and predicting based on “weasels, birds and fish”. The מהרש”א (Maharsha) notes this apparent contradiction and offers a potential solution:

We will point out that in the words of the above teaching, initally it says, “One who wants to know whether he will survive the year or not etc, but then it comes to doing it – it only says the first one (the positive one)… We can answer that all of these things should be forbidden do to the prohibition of לא תנחשו like we said in Perek Deled Misos (Sanhedrin 65b), why should all of these be permissable more than “My bread fell…”, all of the commentator’s gave forced answers and I will give my own interpretation. It is known that the good comes straight from Him, Blessed be His Name, but the bad doesn’t come from the Heavens, rather the sins of a person drive anyway the measure of good from The Holy One Blessed be He and it goes away as the verse says: “your sins have cause separation between me and you”. Thus, the good, which comes from him, is certain, whereas the bad does not come from him and it is uncertain and subject to change. Thus, one who makes an omen for something good is not in violation of the prohibition of Nichush, as good things come from Him, Blessed be He, but one who give a omen for bad is in violation as he makes the bad into something certain when it is possible that with Heaven’s mercy it will change. And so are all the cases (in Sanhedrin) are considered Nichush because they are negative.

This is an interesting approach, for several reasons:
1. It accepts the premise that superstitious beliefs are valid.
2. It asserts that superstitous beliefs are “certain”.

But does this view hold up in light of general practices recorded in the Talmud? Let’s look at two more primary sources:

Rav Giddel was pursuing a certain plot of land and then Rebbi Abba came and bought it. Rav Giddel then complained to Rebbi Zeira who then complained to Rebbe Yitzchak Nafcha. Rebbe Yitzchak Nafcha said, “Wait until he comes to us during the festival”. When (Rebbe Abba) came (Rebbe Yitzchok Nafcha) found him and said “A pauper pursuing a cracker, and someone else comes and takes it, what (is to be said about such an individual)?” (Rebbe Abba) replied “He is considered wicked”, “so why did you behave in this way?” (Rebbe Yitzchok Nafcha asked in reference to Rebbe Abba’s purchase of land the Rav Giddel was pursuing). (Rebbe Abba) replied “I was unaware (that Rav Giddel was pursuing it)”, “so then sell it to him now”, “I will not sell it to him because it is the first land I have purchased, and it is a bad omen (to sell the first land you’ve purchased) but if he wants I will gift it to him”. Rav Giddel did not take the land for it is said “he who hates gifts shall live” and Rav Abba did not take the land because Rav Giddel had pursued it. Neither one took the land and it was called “land of the Rabbis”.

Here we see that Rav Giddel obstained from doing something due to the bad omen he believed it would cause. As this is a negative omen, even according to the Maharsha this should be problematic. Yet, we see that this was taken as an entirely acceptable reason why not to sell the land to Rav Giddel.

One’s wallet and signet ring people don’t lend out, one’s wallet because it is a bad omen and one’s signet ring because he is worried it will be forged.

Rashi explained that people think that if you lend someone your wallet you are lending them your luck. So it would seem that superstition was totally widespread and endorsed by standard Jewish practice. How does this square with the prohibitions cited above?

As it turns out, this takes longer than I anticipated to write out in English, so I will save the rest for tomorrow’s post 😉