2014 NFL Draft: Top 10 Quarterbacks Rankings

By: Matt HarmonApril 7, 2014

You won't find a more polarizing prospect than Johnny Manziel. (Image: thephillygodfather.com)

If you think this is my weirdest draft position rankings yet, you’re probably not alone. There are more than a few big names I have outside of my top 10. However, let me explain my process here. The players represented are the ones I can envision becoming starting quarterbacks in the NFL. Some of them scare me a bit (Derek Carr) or are long shots (Logan Thomas), but at the very least, I can see it happening. If a player didn’t make my list they either have a damning trait (Jimmy Garopollo) or too many flaws (Zach Mettenberger) that led me to believe they won’t last as starters. First Tier

1) Teddy Bridgewater, Louisville

What more do you want in a top quarterback prospect? Teddy Bridgewater has elite short to intermediate accuracy, touch, and pocket movement skills. He also comes with more than adequate arm strength and anticipation. The only areas where you can really knock Bridgewater are his frame and his ability to throw deep outside the numbers. Given his aptitude in protecting his body, and several quarterbacks proving arm strength can improve, those concerns seem overblown. The NFL doesn’t seem to share this view, but Teddy Bridgewater is a fantastic quarterback prospect. He even shows plenty of athletic ability to make plays on the move, and outside of structure. Player comparison: Drew Brees Bridgewater’s savvy ability to maneuver the pocket and short to intermediate passing dominance is very reminiscent of Brees. Much like the Saints’ quarterback, Bridgewater will make his offensive line look much better. Brees is also a smaller quarterback, but has lasted this long in the NFL because he is a master in the pocket. Bridgewater can do the same. Both players show the skills needed to overcome their lack of a cannon right arm. NFL Outlook: According to reports, Bridgewater is destined to take a precipitous fall on draft day. In reality, he should be the first pick in the draft. If he tumbles, it shows that the NFL has an antiquated way of evaluating quarterbacks, or something more sinister is at play. At worst, Teddy will be a top-15 NFL quarterback. However, his baseline talent alone suggests he can be much more. Let him fall at your own peril, NFL general managers.

Second Tier 2) Johnny Manziel, Texas A&M Perhaps one of the most polarizing prospects ever to enter the NFL. The evaluations on Johnny Manziel vary greatly. Some believe he has special ability, while others say he can’t cut it as a pro quarterback. I find myself leaning more toward the former. It’s hard to think of a player who can defy the odds on the field like Manziel. He has outstanding instincts, and improvisational ability. He also has very good arm strength and ball placement. If you draft him, you’re betting that he can improve from the pocket, and within the standard structure of an offense.Player Comparison: Tony Romo with a bit of Russell Wilson and Brett Favre Manziel is so unique that he requires a blend of quarterbacks to compile an accurate comparison. His improvisational skills can make him or break him, just like Romo. He possesses the innate ability to avoid defenders and make plays on the run like Wilson. He is just as capable of making a wow or head-scratching throw like Favre. Manziel is capable of being all of these players at their best, and at their worst. NFL Outlook: Manziel comes into the league with a lot to learn, but also a lot to offer. He would be best off not forced into early action. If he does have to play right away, he could go a similar path to RGIII. If he lands with a creative coach, Manziel will take the league by storm his rookie year. Defensive coordinators will catch up, and he’ll suffer through a “sophomore slump”. Long-term, Manziel will harness his abilities and be a successful starter in the NFL.

3) Blake Bortles, Central Florida “He just looks like a quarterback”. Standing at 6’5 and 230 plus pounds, Blake Bortles fits the NFL’s cookie cutter mold. Of course, there are other positives with this player. Bortles plays well in the pocket, goes through his progressions and has enough natural arm talent. Unfortunately, there are several issues as well. His mechanics desperately need fixing. Bortles leaves too many throws on the field due to his sloppy lower body mechanics. There are some aspects to like, but he is no sure thing. Player Comparison: Aesthetically Ben Roethlisberger, but more Matt Schaub If everything breaks right for Blake Bortles, he can be a player similar to the two-time Super Bowl winner. He has the build and movement skills to remind some of Roethlisberger. If he cleans up his flaws—like Big Ben has—Bortles can be something special. However, as a passer he is much more similar to another tall strapping quarterback in Matt Schaub. The former Texans’ starter had a nice run, but was never a top ten quarterback. It’s a safer bet Bortles ends up closer to that path.NFL Outlook: If Bortles gets a little tweaking and refinement, he can be a very good starter. He doesn’t have overwhelming physical ability, but he’s no slouch there either. Much of his future depends on his landing spot. He’s no slam-dunk to be a franchise quarterback.

Third Tier 4) Bryn Renner, University of North Carolina The Tarheel’s senior quarterback generated a bit of buzz before the 2013 season. Bryn Renner quickly fell off the map after sustaining a season ending injury. Playing in an ill-fitting spread style offense towards the end of his career didn’t do him any favors either. Sometimes good players get lost in the process, and I believe that’s what has happened to Renner. He’s a strong pro style passer who’s good at executing play action, and building off a running game. Renner plays at a fast pace, but in a very controlled manner. He throws with plenty of velocity and puts the ball where it needs to be. Best of all, Renner is a master in the pocket. He stands strong in the eye of the storm, eludes the pressure and reset to throw. The UNC product is capable of throwing off platform, and with bodies around him. His fearlessness and command of the field should be coveted in NFL circles.Player Comparison: Andrew Luck in the pocket, but Kurt Warner as a passer When watching Renner fight through wave after wave of pressure in the South Carolina game, you can’t help but be reminded of Andrew Luck. Just like the Colts’ star, Renner seems oblivious to pressure and doesn’t let it affect him as a passer. Both players can climb the pocket with bodies draped over them. Renner also has the quick release, and throws the same accurate and catchable ball as Kurt Warner. Much like the potential Hall of Famer, Renner might not play as great if the offense isn’t well structured. But if you set things up right, he can help you make some magic.NFL Outlook:

Renner’s age—24 years old—and injury situation will cause him to fall into the late rounds. However, of all quarterbacks who might rise from the ashes, Renner presents the best bet to surprise. He’s a mature leader who is versed in multiple schemes, which will endear him to an NFL coaching staff. You might not hear from him for a few years, but if Renner lands in the right situation, he’ll quickly rise up a depth chart. He has all the skills of a starting quarterback; he just needs a path to get there. Renner would look great in a classic drop back passing attack, behind a strong offensive line and running game—Minnesota with Norv Turner and Adrian Peterson, perhaps.

5) David Fales, San Jose State Once regarded with a higher status, the shine came off David Fales over the years. The longer he played, the more his arm strength concerns became apparent. There is no getting around that; Fales does have a weak arm. However, unlike other weak armed passers who went high in the draft—paging Andy Dalton—Fales does everything else well. He is an accurate passer, who excels at the mental aspect of the game. There are certain routes that Fales throws flat out perfectly. He can execute on the move, but isn’t rattled when playing from the pocket.Player Comparison: Matt Hasselback with less of an arm Matt Hassleback ended up stringing together a more than respectable run as the Seahawks starter. Fales could have a similar career if he emerges as a leading man. Hassleback’s accuracy and anticipation helped him succeed despite less than stellar physical tools. False shows the same ability to compensate. His task will be accepting his limitations and playing within them. NFL Outlook: Fales might only ever develop into a strong backup option. His physical limitations put a ceiling on how far he can carry an organization. However, like his player comparison he is capable of taking a team on a run if surrounded with a strong supporting cast. We will see Fales’ best if he goes to a west coast system, and spends several years mastering the verbiage before playing.

He is way under the radar, but Bryn Renner has all the skills to be this draft's best sleeper quarterback prospect
(Image: Bob Donnan USA Today)

6) Brett Smith, Wyoming

He’s been touted as Johnny Manziel-lite, but Brett Smith is really good in his own right. He’s another prospect who isn’t bothered by pressure. Good thing too, because he faced a ton of it as the quarterback at Wyoming. Smith makes plays on the move, but doesn’t bail on the design as quickly as Manziel. He doesn’t have a ton of experience from the pocket, but his game seems like its translatable. Smith can throw down the field and doesn’t lack confidence in his own ability. He needs work, but has a ton of tangible upside.

Player Comparison: The good Case Keenum and some Jeff Garcia

When Case Keenum first burst on to the scene it was easy to see why he is intriguing. He isn’t superbly talented, but he didn’t lack for confidence. Brett Smith plays with the same sort of aggression. There isn’t a throw he believes he can’t make. Smith is the type of passer who isn’t timid and will throw it to his best players no matter what—the perfect relief pitcher. Stylistically he resembles a young Jeff Garcia. Nothing special about his arm but has nimble feet and playmaking ability.

NFL Outlook:

Smith is another one who will fall through the cracks. He was already snubbed from the NFL Scouting Combine. He’s the type of player, like Keenum, who can come off the bench and keep an offense viable. Perhaps if he gets some of the coaching he needs, he can be a starter.

Fourth Tier

7) Aaron Murray, Georgia

They don’t come more experienced than Aaron Murray. A torn ACL ended his senior season, but Murray spent several years before that starting for Georgia in the SEC. He is another player who isn’t overwhelming physically, but does play to his strengths. Murray is an accurate passer and does well on the move. He isn’t bothered by having to make a throw off platform, and shows enough arm strength to threaten the defense deep. Aaron Murray might not have the skill set of an NFL starter, but he can be a strong backup with developmental upside. It’s not out of the question he excels in a system like the Saints run. Murray would fit nicely as a mistake free distributor at the quarterback position.

NFL Comparison: Alex Smith that takes more risks

The former number one overall pick isn’t an impressive physical specimen. However, he is accurate and is quite good as a runner. Murray displays the same type of mental acumen and toughness that Smith has developed. He is a bit more willing to throw downfield than Smith. A low-end starter of Smith’s caliber is probably Murray’s absolute ceiling.

NFL Outlook:

The most likely scenario is that Murray ends up as someone’s long-term backup. If the number one quarterback goes down for an extended period, he can more than hold his own. It’ll take the right system, but Murray can have success in the NFL.

8) Derek Carr, Fresno State

This is lower than you will find Derek Carr almost anywhere else. There are a lot of positives with this player. He has a great arm—maybe the best in this class. Carr can make any throw, and when he gets into a rhythm he can carve up a defense. He is a very talented passer who can succeed when everything is going well. That’s the problem; not everything will go well at the next level. Carr shows an aversion to pressure. His offensive system does not highlight it often, but there are signs that he wilts in the pocket. Passers who are timid in the face of a pass rush just can’t succeed in the NFL. Carr flashes those issues, and it is a very real problem. When bodies are around him, his short to intermediate accuracy really suffers, and it’s not very good to begin with.

Player Comparison: Matthew Stafford but with shades of Blaine Gabbert

Carr is basically Matthew Stafford after taxes, and Stafford is far from a perfect player anyways. Both run too hot and cold, and abandon their fundamentals. To Carr’s credit, he can sling the ball deep, and make the stick throws to wow you, just like Stafford. Unfortunately, Carr shows signs of being afraid of the rush, which destroyed Blaine Gabbert as a player. Evaluators missed this damning attribute when Gabbert came out because his offense at Missouri masked it. However, Carr’s offense is structured the same way, and just like Gabbert the signs are there.

NFL Outlook:

Carr scares me to death, and there’s no way I’d take him in the first round. Because of his arm talent he might end up going there, and certainly won’t last long in the second if not. Maybe in the right scheme his issues can be covered up, or perhaps the shades of Gabbert are a mirage. Behind a good offensive line, he might be able to sit back unafraid and just throw. Defensive coordinators are too smart in the NFL, and if he has Gabbert syndrome he just won’t succeed.

Fifth Tier

9) Logan Thomas, Virginia Tech

He’s not the second coming of Cam Newton, but that doesn’t mean Logan Thomas should be a tight end. The Virginia Tech senior has some hideous tape. Sometimes it looks as if Thomas has never played quarterback in his entire life, and there is no denying that. But to say there is not clay here to mold is ridiculous. Thomas is massive, has a quality NFL level arm, and is an upper-tier athlete. What more are you looking for in a developmental quarterback? Thomas also doesn’t look overwhelmed on the field, and doesn’t drop his eyes against the rush. He also has the requisite short memory after a mistake that quarterbacks need. He just too often makes another one anyways. Remember, Thomas is still relatively new to the quarterback position, and his time to learn is not nearly up.

Player Comparison: The current Josh Freeman

If you put Logan Thomas on an NFL field today it would be a disaster. He would probably look as bad as Josh Freeman did during his legendary Monday night embarrassment this year. Both players are big, strong, and have whips for right arms. Freeman and Thomas both struggle to read defense, and need a ton of work. Of course, Freeman has regressed to this point, where as Thomas is just starting out here.

NFL Outlook:

It would be best if we don’t hear from Logan Thomas for a couple years. He needs to sit behind a competent starter, and absorb the finer aspects of the position. If he follows that path Thomas will emerge ready to play down the line. Colin Kaepernick came out of Nevada with plenty of issues, and we’ve seen what time and a quarterback guru have done for him. If Thomas gets as lucky, he has a future playing Kaepernick’s role.

10) Keith Wenning, Ball State

He’s under the radar for some, but there are plenty of smart people in Keith Wenning’s corner. If you pop on his games you can see why. Wenning is a great deep ball passer. He doesn’t have a rocket arm, but his posture and lower body mechanics let him thrive there. Wenning hits receivers in stride, and has excellent placement beyond 20 yards. He throws a great fade route, and puts a nearly flawless arc on his passes. The Ball State quarterback also shows several advanced attributes. He knows how to use his eyes to manipulate defenses, and is adept at scanning the whole field. It’s really hard to find a major flaw with Wenning as an individual player, and you could argue he should be higher on this list.

Player Comparison: The Brian Hoyer we saw in 2013

When Hoyer took the reigns for the Browns this year, he nearly saved their season. He displayed more deep passing ability than before, and it was due to his top-notch mechanics. Wenning makes those same throws with ease right now. Hoyer’s quick release and decision-making are what made him so good, and Wenning is of the same style. Both can make plays on the move, but are better dropping back and scanning the field

NFL Outlook:

Wenning won’t be drafted until the later rounds. He probably won’t sniff a starting job for a few years, and like Hoyer he might bounce around for a while. However, some coach is eventually going to see where Wenning wins, and wisely invest in him. When that time comes, some team is going to luck into a quality player. Maybe he never turns into a starter, but it’s hard to envision him not sticking around as a perfect backup quarterback.

All content on Backyard Banter is the original work of Matt Harmon, unless otherwise noted

Please contact Matt with any questions or writing opportunities

Backyard Banter is partnered with:

Reality Sports Online is a powerful Fantasy Sports platform where Owners get to build and manage their Fantasy team like an NFL General Manager. RSO features the revolutionary Free Agency Auction Room, which mimics NFL Free Agency, enabling Fantasy Owners to compete against each other to negotiate with and sign the NFL's top talent to single OR multi-year contracts. An intuitive algorithm acts as the player's agent -- automatically valuing offers using the same factors used in real life -- the Total Amount, Per Year Average Salary, Total Guarantee, and Contract Length.

In addition to its revolutionary Free Agency software, RSO's League Manager has tons of other cool features like: **In-season signs and cuts **Multi-team (up to 5) and Future Draft Pick Trades **Franchise Tag **Injured Reserve **Automated Contract & Salary Cap Functionality and much, much more. Test your General Manager skills today by participating in a FREE Mock Free Agency Auction at Realitysportsonline.com and use the code "banter" to get 10% off league entry fees.