Ultra-Orthodox clout may ebb after Israel election

Netanyahu's relations with the U.S., Israel's top ally, have been notably tense throughout his past four years in office. And in recent weeks, the Netanyahu government has infuriated the international community with plans to build thousands of homes in the West Bank and east Jerusalem, occupied territories the Palestinians seek for their future state.

Netanyahu has shrugged off the criticism, but at the same time, he has a history of co-opting moderate parties.

Lapid's "Yesh Atid," or "There is a Future," and "Hatnua," headed by former Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni, have said they would not be the liberal fig leafs for an extremist, ultra-Orthodox government. But neither Lapid, whose party represents middle class interests, nor Livni, whose party focuses largely on clinching a peace deal with the Palestinians, have ruled out sitting in a Netanyahu government.

The privileges granted to the ultra-Orthodox have enraged the secular and modern Orthodox majority of Israelis. Last year, Netanyahu was forced to abandon his plans to extend the draft exemptions under intense public pressure, though he so far has produced no ultra-Orthodox recruitment program.

The ultra-Orthodox camp is not monolithic: Shas is more flexible than other ultra-Orthodox parties on the draft. Other ultra-Orthodox lawmakers demand that the status quo remain and say they will not join a government that applies the draft universally.

If polls are wrong and Netanyahu's list wins more seats than is currently expected, "he will be freer to act," said Menachem Friedman, an expert on the ultra-Orthodox. With a poorer performance, "he will have a tougher time" because potential partners will be able to drive a harder bargain, he said.