The Blackmailer Paradox

Game Theory and negotiations with Arab countries.

Reuben and Shimon are placed into a small room with a suitcase containing $100,000 of cash. The owner of the suitcase offers them the following: "I'll give you all the money in the suitcase, but only on the condition that you negotiate and reach an amicable agreement on its division. That’s the only way I will give you the money. "

Reuben, who is a rational person, appreciates the golden opportunity presented to him and turns to Shimon with the obvious suggestion: "Come, you take half the amount, I'll take the other half, and each of us will go away with $50,000." To his surprise, Shimon, with a serious look on his face and a determined voice says: "Listen, I do not know what your intentions are with the money, but I'm not leaving this room with less than $90,000. Take it or leave it. I’m fully prepared to go home with nothing."

Reuben can not believe his ears. What happened to Shimon? he thinks to himself. Why should he get 90%, and I only 10%? He decides to try to talk to Shimon. "Come, be reasonable," he pleads. "We're both in this together, and we both want the money. Come let’s share the amount equally and we’ll both come out ahead.”

But the reasoned explanation of his friend does not seem to register on Shimon. He listens attentively to Reuben’s words, but then declares even more emphatically, "There is nothing to discuss. 90-10 or nothing, that's my final offer!" Reuben's face turns red with anger. He wants to smack Shimon across his face, but soon reconsiders. He realizes that Shimon is determined to leave with the majority of the money, and that the only way for him to leave the room with any money is to surrender to Shimon’s blackmail. He straightens his clothes, pulls out a wad of bills from the suitcase in the amount of $10,000, shakes hands with Shimon and leaves the room looking forlorn.

This case in Game Theory is called the “Blackmailer Paradox." The paradox emerging from this case is that the rational Reuben is eventually forced to act clearly irrationally, in order to gain the maximum available to him. The logic behind this bizarre result is that Shimon broadcast total faith and confidence in his excessive demands, and he is able to convince Reuben to yield to his blackmail in order for him to receive the minimum benefit.

Arab - Israel Conflict

The political relationship between Israel and Arab countries is also conducted according to the principles of this paradox. The Arabs present rigid and unreasonable opening positions at every negotiation. They convey confidence and assurance in their demands, and make certain to make absolutely clear to Israel that they will never give up on any of these requirements.

Absent an alternative, Israel is forced to yield to blackmail due to the perception that it will leave the negotiating room with nothing if it is inflexible. The most prominent example of this is the negotiations with the Syrians that have been conducted already for a number of years under various auspices. The Syrians made certain to clarify in advance that they will never yield even an inch of the Golan Heights.

The Israeli side, which so desperately seek a peace agreement with Syria, accept Syria's position, and today, in the public discourse in Israel, it is clear that the starting point for future negotiations with Syria must include a full withdrawal from the Golan Heights, despite the critical strategic importance of the Golan Heights to ensure clear boundaries that protect Israel.

How to Avoid Failure

According to Game Theory, the State of Israel must make some perceptual changes to improve its position in the negotiations with the Arabs, and to ultimately win the political struggle.

A. Willingness to renounce agreements: The present Israeli political approach is based on the assumption that an agreement with the Arabs must be reached at all costs, because the present situation, with the lack of an agreement, is simply intolerable. In the “Blackmailer Paradox," Reuben's behavior is based on the perception that he must leave the room with some amount of money even if it is the minimum. Reuben’s inability to accept the possibility that he may have to leave the room empty-handed, inevitably causes him to surrender to extortion and to leave the room in shame as a loser, but at least with some gain. Similarly, the State of Israel conducts its negotiations from a frame of mind that does not allow her to reject suggestions that do not conform to its interests.

B. Consideration of repeat games: Based on Game Theory, one should consider a one-time situation completely differently from a situation that repeats itself again and again, for in games that repeat over time, a strategic balance that is neutral paradoxically causes a cooperation between the opposing sides. Such cooperation occurs when the parties understand that the game repeats itself many times, therefore they must consider what will be the impact of their present moves on future games, when the fear of future loss serves as a balancing factor. Reuben related to the situation as if it were a one-time game, and acted accordingly. Had he announced to Shimon that he was not prepared to concede the part due him, even in light of a total loss, he would change the outcome of the game, for the future, although it is quite likely that he would leave the room empty-handed in the current negotiation. However, if both encounter a similar situation in the future, Shimon would recognize Reuben’s seriousness and have to reach a compromise with him. Likewise, Israel must act with patience and with long-term vision, even at the cost of not coming to any present agreement and continuing the state of belligerence, in order to improve its position in future negotiations.

C. Faith in your position: Another element that creates the “Blackmailer Paradox," is the absolute certainty of one side in its positions, in this case the position of Shimon. Full certainty creates an internal justification of one’s convictions, and in the second round serves to convince his opponent that his positions were right. This results in the opponent's desire to reach a compromise even by acting entirely irrationally and distancing him from his opening demands. Several years ago, I talked to a senior officer who claimed that Israel must withdraw from the Golan in any peace settlement because, from the Syrian point of view, the land is sacred and they will not give up on it. I explained to him, the Syrians convinced themselves that this is sacred ground, and it was this that succeeded to convince us as well. The deep conviction of the Syrians, causes us to surrender to the Syrian dictates. The present political situation will be resolved only if we convince ourselves of the justice of our views. Only total faith in our demands will be able to convince the Syrian opponent to consider our position.

Like all science, Game Theory does not presume to express an opinion on moral values, but rather seeks to analyze the strategic behaviors of rival parties in a common game. The State of Israel plays such a game with its enemies. Like every game, in the Arab-Israeli game there are particular interests that shape and frame the game and its rules. Unfortunately, Israel ignores the basic principles that arise in Game Theory. If the State of Israel succeeds in following these base principles, its political status and its security will improve significantly.

The opinions expressed in the comment section are the personal views of the commenters. Comments are moderated, so please keep it civil.

Visitor Comments: 47

(46)
Albert Levy,
September 29, 2011 3:44 AM

The same theory applies to the Palestinians.

The State of Israel has been recognized as a Jewish Sate since
1947 by the UN. Why do we need to negociate for the Palestinians to "recognize" Israel? Two states, one Jewish and another one Palestinian is better than one state with Arab majority. This is simple to understand.

(45)
Jimmy Smith,
May 3, 2011 6:12 AM

The real answer is simply a mathematical solution of what you really want, though there are infinite variations to this problem, it depends on how badly you need the money, if you only need 10,000 dollars, you will gladly accept any amount that is greater than that amount. It also depends on how greatly you value money, and how much you want to spite the other party, for example a millionaire that dislikes the other party would rather that the other person gets nothing, however, if he was neutral with the other person, he would probably be willing to give him a greater amount or even the whole amount. Though you still have to consider the personalities of the two parties, for example if there was a time limit to this problem, say 30 minutes to agree to an amount and tell the person offering the money the amounts you have agreed upon. If say Shimon decides to screw Reuben at the end and interrupts Shimon before he says the previously agreed amount and says that he wants 80/20 amount with him getting the better deal and puts Shimon on the spot and asks if he agrees, though probably angry, Shimon will acknowledge the fact that he did not screw him as badly as he would have screwed him and would would still want to get some money out of this, so depending on the personality of Shimon, he might actually agree due to being on the spot. By the way, sorry for the rambling.

(44)
Michael,
July 28, 2010 4:23 PM

Ilana has a point. The Arab struggle against Israelis no longer a national struggle (if it ever was) and has the nature of an Islamic holy war. Israelis must therefore convince themselves that Mohammed was an impostor and a false prophet and founder of a false religion, and that the likes of Ismail Haniyeh and the rest of his Hamas henchmen are liable to the penalty for bearing false prophecy.

(43)
Jerusalem,
July 28, 2010 9:09 AM

Why do you call it a paradox?

Why do you call it a paradox? A paradox is something that is contradictory but true. Shimon is intransigent, and Reuben gives in. Where is the paradox? That unfairness may subdue fairness hardly seems contradictory, although it is an unfortunate fact of life, especially when dealing with people who believe that might makes right.
And why do you call it blackmail? Blackmail is extortion by threatening to expose or harm someone. There is no threat here. There is only coercion.
This is, nevertheless, a very good article in form and content, but there are grammatical and usage errors in the writing. I am a professional editor, and I could improve this article and/or future articles. Shouldn't such an article be impeccably written? Please get in touch with me, if you are interested in an edited version of this article as a sample of my work.

Anonymous,
May 3, 2011 5:58 AM

A paradox does not only mean that, a paradox can also be pertaining to something that is so absurd, however in actuality it actually could make a lot of sense. The absurdity comes from the fact that the other person had challenged the original 50/50 amount thought this is absurd, it would greatly benefit him, however they are both equals in this scenario, so he actually has no real power in this situation. The reason for the blackmail name is because this is still blackmail, it just isn't quite the same as regular blackmail, because in this case it really is similar to a bluff because Shimon wants Reuben to agree with the absurd deal. Shimon is till holding the fear of not getting any money against him.

(42)
Ilana Leeds,
July 27, 2010 12:13 AM

Has it taken you that long to work it out?

B'H
The Arabs have a faith in their stance that we do not have. We have been so long victims of the 'slave mentality' and try to negotiate a deal and to keep everyone happy that we make concessions that seriously compromise our future as a state and a Jewish state even.
Once the rest of the world sees that we have faith in ourselves and trust in the Ribono She Haolam then we will be in the right track. Dayan made a mistake at the kotel in 1967 when the grounds of the beit hamikdash should have been prepared to build the third holy temple. Begin gave back Sinai. Time and time again the capitulation of Israel has been a sign of weakness for the Arab Nations.
We must believe in the right to a Jewish state and borders as clearly defined by Torah. No divided Jerusalem, Hebron as a Jewish city and Shechem and the Shomron region.
Clearly we must be undivided in our resolve and not give in. Furthermore Israel needs a government that follows Torah guidlines.

(41)
Ezra Resnick,
July 24, 2010 1:17 PM

Dogmatism is a very serious problem, and we must be willing to use force against it when necessary. More importantly, though, we must fight the foundations of dogmatism by promoting rationality, critical thinking, and the free flow of ideas. Not by becoming dogmatists ourselves.
Please read my more detailed critique here:
http://norighttobelieve.wordpress.com/2010/07/24/is-it-rational-to-give-in-to-irrationality/

(40)
J. Lazar,
July 14, 2010 11:48 PM

Go Back to Torah

Game Theory is helpful in understanding the principles behind negationations but to focus on it alone will not give Israel solid ground. Israeli leaders should better ground themselves in the eternal wisdom of the Torah in which HaShem gave the land to Israel alone. And to Israel alone those contested lands, 100%, belong.

(39)
Anonymous,
July 13, 2010 11:57 AM

Brilliant Article 6-8-10. I very much like your focus on one issue, and following it through in a meaningful way. I find this much more useful than a page filled with small blurbs about this and that in summary form.
This is information I can use in discussion to support ongoing difficulties. I can only HOPE TO G-D that Benjamin Netanyahu and a majority of the Knesset will read and heed your collection of scientific data.

(38)
Roy Adams,
July 12, 2010 1:44 AM

50/50? 90/10? why not 100%

Reuben should have made one last proposal. 50/50 or we both get nothing. With Syrians, I wouldn't offer them nothing but a few words "Get over it".

(37)
Sharon,
July 11, 2010 6:36 AM

the example is of a win-win deal

If Reuben believes this is a one time deal with no future negotiations on the line, then accepting ten percent is still worth his while because he is not sacrificing anything for it, and presumably Shimon is not his enemy.
In the MidEast conflict, no presents are being offered. It's not a matter of getting a free lunch, but making huge sacrifices which lead to strengthening of the enemy position in future negotiations. So I think the confidence of Shimon in guessing at Reuben's desperation is a very apt analogy. And clearly even if we reach "final status" negotiations, the Arab side will never cease to demand more. Only confidence in our right and belief in our future can improve our negotiating position. Rabbi Weinberg's z"l teachings would be so helpful to our leaders if only they would understand with certainty our moral rights to be here and not buy into revisionist "history".

(36)
yuval,
July 9, 2010 5:55 PM

Lying as a strategy

Another factor we must put into the game is the realization that lying is permissible on the Arab side, whereas it is impermissible on the jewish side. Therefore the Jew believes the sincerelty of the Arab concerning the sanctity of this or that, or his willingness to die for the cause. However, if the Jew realizes that every word uttered by a muslim is likely to be a lie, the rules of the game change so that the liar must prove his sincerety before gaining any hands. Apply that to the discrepancy between the Arab willingness to swera fealty to the Land, compared with Arab flight whenever the ground becomes too hot for their real liking.

(35)
Chana,
July 9, 2010 3:59 PM

Gotta be stubborn enough to call the bluff

See, Reuben handled it all wrong. He should have said to Shimon, "Fine. You go home with nothing and I'll take the rest. So, how does that 50K sound now?"

(34)
Eyal Krupka,
July 9, 2010 8:10 AM

Gilad Shalit negotiation is a perfect example of this pattern :(

Israel does convince itself in his deep justice and values, and clearly state it to the enemies.
We clear state:
1. We will try to minimize the price, but it is not acceptable that Gilad won't return home (as Ron Arad).
2. Eventually, if there is no other choice, we will pay any price.
And unfortunately, this is clearly repeated game... :(

(33)
Anonymous,
July 9, 2010 12:37 AM

to #29

I think you make some very good points, but the arabs can be quite irrational. They won't listen to only empathy. I know it sounds bad that I'm calling them irrational, but I'm sure only showing empathy as the only defense would really compromise the safety of the Israeli country. I don't think they'd negotiate nicely, no matter what. I could be wrong, but I really don't think so.
Anyway, really enjoyed this article. Very informative!

(32)
Ezra,
July 8, 2010 7:53 PM

disagreement about Israel´s desperation to negotiate.

I´ve being following closely the informal negotiations
with Syria, and I don´t have the perception at all that
Israel is "desperate". To the contrary, I´m certain that eventually, Israel will be able to make the right bidding and come forth with the best possible result, which means, The Golan Hights with an israeli flag waving
over it (beezrat Hashem).

(31)
,
July 8, 2010 3:42 PM

re #29 anonymous

perfect example of moral equivalence - sorry your attempt at "compassion" will get more JEWS dead - one side has NO EMPATHY for JEWS or ISRAEL sooner you accept it sooner you see your "blame the victims" attitude is ignorant - Israel cannot dance to peace with a partner unwilling- tell your sob story to the Fakestinains

(30)
Kat,
July 8, 2010 3:37 PM

Simple Analysis

You are a very smart man and I thank you for using this way of analyzing the conflict, so simple, that even a child can understand.
For many years now I have kept on saying it is Israel's turn to make ridiculous, unreasonable demands until the Fakestinians stand down- just refuse to play THEIR game- unfortunately the people of Isreal still think in order to be "good people" they must be the ones to make suicidal concessions. A house divided.

(29)
Anonymous,
July 8, 2010 10:17 AM

Empathy Is the Only Answer

In a natural state most people would offer the 50-50. So, why would one suggest 90-10? I'd argue that there is a pain on the part of the person offering such a "deal." And, I'd argue that the only way to break down the division that a 90-10 person is feeling is through empathy.
Neither the Israelis of today nor the Palestinians of today created this mess they live in. The situation went very wrong. Both sides are hurt, disrespected, betrayed, and traumatized. Mothers cry over their son's bodies on both side of the fence.
Yet, the anger is wrongly directed. The direction of the anger should be towards the cruelty of man. We need to stop fueling the idea that we have enemies. In most every war the enemies are the people who are most similar to you. Think of the warring tribes of Africa- can we tell their cultures, values, and religions apart? Usually not. Think of the North and South Koreans. Or, the Indians and the Pakistanis. It is all brother hating and killing brother. And, isn't it easiest to hate family? Isn't it easiest to hate those most similar to yourself? Those who you expect the most of, and tolerate the differences the least.
Speaking now to the Israelis, and as a Jew myself, the only path to ending this cycle of violence is feeling the very real pain of the Palestinians. And, recognizing that we created that trauma for them (regardless as to whether it can be justified or not). We caused pain (regardless as to whether they did too). We repeatedly punished villages for the actions of individuals (even if they did the same). We have not treated them with respect (even if we think they don't deserve it).
Feel their pain. Feel their sorrow. Let their sadness touch your heart. Feel their anger- accept it. Don't protect yourself by defending it. Don't justify anything. Only then can they begin to trust us as a people & see that we have hearts. This is an empowered path that suits our people.

(28)
Wayne,
July 8, 2010 8:13 AM

What to do?

Follow the lead of a master; take your shoe off and pound it on the table. Appear to be crazy enough to see mutually assured destruction as an acceptable outcome.

(27)
Anonymous,
July 8, 2010 4:40 AM

Call his bluff

The only sane way out is to call his bluff: say all right, then I am walking out now, I won't get the 10 000 you want to give me, but you won't get the 90 000 either.

(26)
John Smythe,
July 8, 2010 2:04 AM

Israel is not perceived as acting in a united front as one voice.

Shimon needed to add elements of strength, perhaps menace with a scowl, and change his simple meek manner as he is perceived to be a non threat weakling instead of someone who will kill your family, or perhaps pull every single hair from your ugly body.

(25)
Anonymous,
July 7, 2010 11:45 PM

The Zero Sum Game

It's called the Zero Sum Game; if I win anything, you lose. The Arabs don't understand rational compromise; they want Eretz from the river to the sea, and all the Jews dead. What is that that Israelis don't understand about this?

(24)
Sorah Ruckel,
July 6, 2010 8:57 PM

Obvious why Robert Aumann Deserved Nobel Prize

This is an excellent article that clearly states what most thinking people have sensed as they've watched the assumptions and rhetoric shift widely in the middle east. It needs to be circulated widely among diaspora Jews and U.S. legislative and executive branch officials so they will understand what has happened and stop pressuring Israel to act against its interests.
Yasher Koack Dr. Aumann and to the editors at Aish for this excellent analysis.

(23)
yitzhak,
July 6, 2010 4:25 PM

Only Robert Aumann

I did not find out who the author is before I read the article. And as I was reading it, I was thinking "only Robert Aumann would be able to think of this." So I scrolled up to look at the byline and was pleasantly surprise that indeed, it was Dr. Aumann. Hear Dr. Aumann, Israel. Do not heed anyone else. Just follow this most sensible and rational advice. This is the only feasible and viable solution. Many thanks to you, Dr. Aumann. May you have a long life. May Israel be Eternal as Hashem.

(22)
Dvirah,
July 6, 2010 2:48 PM

Back Seat Players

In the example given here the owner of the suitcase left the room and let Reuben and Shimon get on with their negotiations by themselves. Now imagine that the suitcase owner stays in the room and keeps urging Reuben to accept Shimon's demands "as a friend", even though he knows this is not in Reuben's best interest. Also that the owner makes no effort to moderate Shimon's position or persuade him to be more reasonable. That is a more analogous situation to Israel's, who is under constant pressure from her "allies" to concede to the Arab demands, without - as far as I see - any similar pressure on the Arabs. I do agree with Mr. Aumann's conclusions, but we must remember that Israel in that case must face off not just her enemies but also her "friends."

(21)
Anonymous,
July 6, 2010 1:16 PM

wake up, unite or it's holocaust time

Land for peace doesnt work, Israeli Diplomats are anesthetized,Jews running in circles like headless chickens,arabs see this left loving dream nation playing into their capitulatious rhetoric,. Jews love their minds ,their liberality, egos and selves not their nationhood or G-d...so say goodbye to the 3rd commonwealth. You go to sleep with this nonsense in your head and dont awaken -a slit throat?You killed Kahane for trying to tell you(and maybe Jesus too ,huh,), now say goodbye to the evils if the physical plane...and remember Kahane warned you too.wake up now or perish.

(20)
Richard ben Serai,
July 5, 2010 11:14 PM

This is not a game

What is wrong with Israel stating its position clearly from the start in any 'negotiations' with former beligerants, eg. the 'return' of any strategic land (air space / maritime frontier) is unacceptable given that these places have been used to attack Israel. No sane nation makes itself vulnerable in this way. Would the US cede Texas, Arizona, California back to Mexico? Of course not, these areas would then be ruled by drug-lords and bandits. In Australia (my country of origin) proceeds of crime are confiscated by State and so it should be with Israel. If land is / has been used for criminal purposes then it is forfeit. If this is made clear to Syria, Lebanon, Jordan, Egypt and the like (and there is precedent in Int. Law), you'll see them come to the 'negotiation' table with a new perspective. Israel must not worry about Arabs losing face where it concerns 'war lands' return demands, say to their faces "You acted like criminals, you lost, get over it!"

(19)
Ilana,
July 5, 2010 10:22 PM

One of the 14 million advisers of Israel:

Sometimes, we Jews, explain too much. Too much analyses, too many words. We still believe - even when it never worked - that we can still improve our conditions in times of threats and emergency, depending on our wisdom, morality and human compassion and therefore expecting something human of our adversaries. This kind of passivity did not stop the steady drift into growing animosity - all over the world now and in the past. We are not dealing with reasonable thinking enemies, but with enemies who's whole purpose of life is to pep themselves and others to become more fanatical in their irrational doctrines, determined growing hatred and bellicosity for the destruction of the Jewish nation, no matter what. They don't want and need anything from Israel, but its distruction. That is their unyielding conception. We must face that. We should know better by now that enemies of the Jews can lack any kind of human logic or even humanity - again. The people of Israel never won wars or survived persecutions through wisdom, studies, analyses, diplomacy or negotiatons only, how valuable they may be for the sane. We are dealing with wickedness of the worst kind, deprived of any human concerns, even if they and their children have to suffer the most. It is their mission. But, ofcourse, this image of human nature is very hard to accept for the Jewish soul, despite our repeated experiences. Israel faces a growing, chaotic developing situation and should not hide in its shell out of indecision and growing pressure. It has a huge responsibility to show strength and understanding of this mad brainwashed ideology to deal with it accordingly. Israel should be more powerful aware of its moral rights that expresses itself in vigor. Not by study, research and pleading fairness and justice to the world and itself only. It does not and never has existed in any of our enemies comprehension and the rest doesn't bother.

(18)
steve,
July 5, 2010 4:01 PM

an agreement between parties is only as good as the parties word t

the arab world has shown its track record agreements are futile only thing they understand is power....

(17)
ruth housman,
July 5, 2010 3:30 PM

a game of baseball: getting HOME

I think you make an interesting point here but I am not sure I can necessarily go all the way, because I feel there are rights on both sides and always have been. And sometimes, despite the Israeli need for flexibility in this endless conflict, I sense there is truly a kind of inflexibility on BOTH sides.
I don't see this as always going one way, namely the Arabs asking for way more than they should, and the Israelis having the mindset of giving in order to appease to prevent something "worse".
I try to maintain an open mind, being Jewish, and I also do deeply perceive a Biblical story that involves a connection with "the other side", and that we are deeply, one family, and deeply divided.
The resolution is ongoing, a story of "give and take" as most games, as in the Great American Sport, baseball.
How do we all get home? That's the problem and the solution I think, will come, from a source surprisingly different that involves language itself.

(16)
M,
July 5, 2010 12:38 PM

Interesting comments

The comments are very interesting, each bringing his/her own take and improvement upon Prof. Auman's essay. One thing: Prof. Auman tries to say in a language that everyone understands, the language of what you see and what you want to react to. There is another take, Hashem sees the terrible infighting in Israel, the self hatred and self debasement of Israelis and Jews for any kind of recognition from the world, our eyes are closed, our minds are harden, so he sends us PLENTY of antisemitism. Maybe it will open our eyes, and we will see that this is not the way to for a proud Jew to behave. None of the explanations will help if we don't open our eyes and do teshuva. The more we debase ourselves, the more our hands became weak and antisemitism and Islam will grow.

(15)
Dr. David Rosen,
July 5, 2010 9:26 AM

Nothing is sacred to the Jews

Unlike the Syrians who have decided the Golan Heights are sacred to them, Jews will not even admit their holy cities of Jerusalem or Hebron are sacred -- if one is willing to give up everything ... an enemy will arise to take it. Israel IS sacred to the Jews--we must broadcast that and defend our sacred land!

(14)
Anonymous,
July 5, 2010 5:21 AM

game theory

In any meaningful relationship, if one party needs the relationship more than the other, and moreover, this is obvious then the more needy is in a very weak position. That can mean open to abuse or bullying. This may not be game theory, but it is real life.

(13)
Ben Plonie,
July 5, 2010 4:23 AM

#1 Broide an example of why Israel loses negotiations

Israel does not need peace more than the Arabs. That is just the theme of the leftist media, who continuously change the subject from truth and justice to a phantom peace. It is just as a mugger will say that if you yield your money to him, he won't hurt you and there will be peace. The very act of yielding the money is to participate in an act of violence.

(12)
Anonymous,
July 5, 2010 2:55 AM

Israeli diplomats cannot and refuse to comprehend Robert Aumann

Israeli diplomats are stupid and refuse to comprehend game theory. 15 years ago, when I had lunch with Ne'eman, a brilliant physicist, we agreed on this.

(11)
JULIUS ROMANOFF,
July 5, 2010 1:45 AM

Israel's Bottom Line

Jerusalem is under attack because Jews have not stated their bottom line. Each day Jews modify their position, and the one constant is their desire for peace. .
Netanyahu became Prime Minister, and he too has not been able to withstand the pressures from President Obama, who insisted that building housing in Jerusalem and the West Bank must cease. Netanyahu bought some time in that he agreed to halt building in Jerusalem temporarily and in Judea and Samaria for one year. The Palestinians now refuse to hold face to face meetings with Israel unless their terms are met.
The pressure on Israel has also been raised by Israel's need to enforce the embargo of Gaza to prevent armaments to be brought into Gaza. However, it was planned to be done without excessive force. The Israeli intelligence did not know that Jihadist was waiting to attack the Israelis as they rappelled down ropes from a Helicopter. The protestors were armed with knives, metal clubs, and were well organized as to the attack. Nine deaths were caused by sending unarmed soldiers to deal with so called "humanitarian protestors".
World opinion again clamors that Israel has no right to blockade Gaza, since the refugees there are living in poverty. Israel needs to state its terms clearly. Jerusalem is not a Settlement, and is the Capitol of Israel. Judea and Samaria contain sites that have historical meaning for Jews, and we have seen what the Palestinians have done to synagogues and holy sites of Jews. Israel will maintain security in West Bank, and Palestinians will control civil rule, but will not have an army. Hatred of Jews and Israelis must cease for the two states to live in peace, and those are our terms. The world may howl, but they do so no matter what Israel does. Israel is fighting a war with an enemy, who states repeatedly that they will destroy Israel. Until they change their tune, Israel should stick to their demands.

(10)
Anonymous,
July 5, 2010 12:34 AM

makes perfect sense to me. Do it !

makes perfect sense to me. Now just do it.

(9)
Isaac,
July 4, 2010 10:31 PM

Brilliant

Thank you for the education. I love the first point made: willingness to renounce agreements.
There is also something from the world of post modern theory: the greatest strength becomes the greatest weakness. Perhaps this needs to be explored more. What is their greatest strength? For the same of argument let us say it is their philosophy: Islam. So, why not spend some time and money seeing how we can turn this philosophy against them. I do not have the brain but how about a covert operation which studies Islam and then broadcasts its findings. Of course these findings would be fighting the official lines. This Islam school would have to be coming from an official Arab source or two. Certain historical events would have to be uncovered. Turn their small world upside down at the foundation without them knowing anything about it. Revisionism 10!
We can do it! Remember we really do not have nuclear weapons. We can do this as well.
Mind you, if Islam were a religion then I would think twice but it is nothing but an all encompassing philosophy with a strong leanings towards tyranny.

(8)
Yossi,
July 4, 2010 5:53 PM

Great article. I would say that he doesn't paint the full picture

1) If Israel shows conviction in an unreasonable settlement according to the worlds eyes it will suffer diplomatically.
2) The analogy to the 100,000$ is not a good one. There, each side has the same to gain and lose. The palestinians don't really care if they don't get a settlement with Israel. First, they feel that if they "wait in the room for a long time" Israel will have no choice but to give them the maximum. This is because their population is growing and they know Israel doesn't even want them. The world is also getting increasingly liberal and the international community won't tolerate what it perceives as an occupying power. The longer Israel continues "occupying" the west bank the more pressure they will get to withdraw. It's partially a PR battle as well, and the palestinians have an inherent advantage because they seem "occupied." So the more they wait the more they are advantaged.
Also, the reality is Israel has a lot more to gain if they reach a settlement and a lot more to lose if they don't reach a settlement. If they reach one, they will get peace with most of the arab countries, which is good economically as well as for its security. They will be able to decrease defense spending and allocate it for other areas. It would have many other diplomatic and economic benefits, much much more than you think. The palestinians enjoy the world spotlight and billions of dollars in foreign aid. Their leaders are corrupt and don't really give a shit about their people. They can wait.
That is precisely their plan. They want to wait and for negotiations to fail so that the international community will impose a settlement. That settlement will be unfair.

(7)
Marvin Greeberg,
July 4, 2010 5:34 PM

NEVER AGAIN

NO SOLUTION, NO PEACE! LIVE WITH IT!

(6)
JULIUS ROMANOFF,
July 4, 2010 4:55 PM

Blackmailer Paradox

Israel feels the pressure to concede to Arab demands by even democratic nations, including now its main ally, United States. Oil is the asset the Arabs possess, and it is used as a threat to withhold its distribution or raise the price so that it upsets the world's economy. Israel's only defense is the moral issue of having lived in the Middle East before Mohammad was even born. In a world without ethical standards, history is distorted and accepted as truth.
The response for Israel is to state that Judea and Samaria are part of Israel. Arabs residing in these lands can remain there, but live without voting rights as citizens of Israel. Any hostile behavior by these inhabitants will mean deportation to Muslim nations.
Gaza can become a Palestinian nation to prove that an Arab nation can live peacefully alongside Israel. Once this has been done further negotiations can be possible. Israel will face the criticism of much of the world, but they get the criticism no matter what they do as long as they exist.

(5)
Gary Katz,
July 4, 2010 4:47 PM

Golan is different than other disputed lands

The difference between the Golan and other disputed areas is mostly demographic. Israel doesn't have to worry that the Arab population in the Golan Heights will exceed that of the Jews. Thus, time is on Israel's side. Maybe Bashir will die and the next leader will be more compromising. If not, wait 30 years for the leader after that. Personally, I would tell Syria "If the Golan were so precious, then you shouldn't have attacked us in '67. Attack us again and we'll take even more land!"

(4)
Anonymous,
July 4, 2010 2:22 PM

Thisis a great article~

Tthis is exactly true, when the Arabs know we are completely 100% certain that this land belongs to us and we will not make any concessions that don't assure us a lasting peace, they will drop their ridiculous behavior. Thanks for a great article.

(3)
Tony Trenton,
July 4, 2010 2:07 PM

We must constantly change the rulesto keep them off balance

There is no compromise with Islam.
They are taught from day 1 that Infidels have no right to be on this earth and it is their duty to cut our throats.

(2)
Tamar,
July 4, 2010 1:58 PM

Blackmailer Paradox

Robert Aumann should become the main tutor of Israel's PM and fellow ministers and members of Knesset!

(1)
Avraham Broide,
July 4, 2010 1:37 PM

They don't need us

Unlike Reuven and Shimon who have parity, Israel needs and wants peace more than the Arabs do, and the Arabs know it. Pretending will not change this.

I want to know about the concept of "sin" due to Adam and Eve eating from the Tree of Knowledge. The Christian concept of sin revolves around the fall of the man and the "original sin." Does Judaism view it the same way?

The Aish Rabbi Replies:

Adam and Eve were punished according to their actions. In other words, God laid down the conditions for Adam and Eve to live in the garden, provided they would not eat from the Tree of Knowledge. However, if they were to eat from that tree they would be punished by experiencing death. (If they had not eaten from the tree, they would have remained immortal.)

This sets down the basic principle in Judaism of Reward and Punishment. Basic to this is that every person has the choice of doing good or bad. When a person chooses "good" – as defined by God – he is able to draw close to God. In other words, every individual has a chance to "gain salvation" through his own actions.

My understanding of Christianity, however, is that the Original Sin has infected all of mankind to the point where individuals are incapable of achieving salvation through their own initiative. Man is "totally depraved" and therefore his only hope of salvation is through the cross.

This belief is contrary to the teachings of Judaism. From the Torah perspective, an individual does not need to rely on anyone else to atone for them. In Judaism, sins can be "erased" altogether by sincere repentance and a firm resolution never to repeat the mistakes.

For more on this, read "Their Hollow Inheritances" by Michael Drazin – www.drazin.com

Yahrtzeit of Moses in 1273 BCE (Jewish year 2488), on the same day of his birth 120 years earlier. (Consequently, "May you live to 120" has become a common Jewish blessing.) Moses was born in Egypt at a time when Pharaoh had decreed that all Jewish baby boys be drowned in the Nile River. His mother set him afloat in a reed basket, where he was -- most ironically -- discovered by Pharaoh's daughter and brought to Pharaoh's palace to be raised. When Moses matured, his heart turned to aid the Jewish people; he killed an Egyptian who was beating a Jew, and he fled to Midian where he married and had two sons. God spoke to Moses at the Burning Bush, instructing him to return to Egypt and persuade Pharaoh to "let My people go." Moses led the Jews through the ten plagues, the Exodus, and the splitting of the Red Sea. Seven weeks later, the Jews arrived at Mount Sinai and received the Torah, the only time in human history that an entire nation experienced Divine revelation. Over the next 40 years, Moses led the Jews through wanderings in the desert, and supervised construction of the Tabernacle. Moses died before being allowed to enter the promised Land of Israel. He is regarded as the greatest prophet of all time.

Lack of gratitude is at the root of discontent. In order to be consistently serene, we must master the attribute of being grateful to the Creator for all His gifts. As the Torah (Deuteronomy 26:11) states, "Rejoice with all the good the Almighty has given you." This does not negate our wanting more. But it does mean that we have a constant feeling of gratitude since as long as we are alive, we always have a list of things for which to be grateful.

[Just before Moses' death] God said to him, "This is the Land that I promised to Abraham, to Isaac, and to Jacob" (Deuteronomy 34:4).

The Midrash says that Moses pleaded to live long enough to be able to enter the Promised Land. He surrendered his soul only after God instructed him to enter Heaven and inform the Patriarchs that the Israelites had come to their Land and that God had indeed fulfilled His promise to give the Land of Israel to their descendants. To fulfill God's will was dearer to Moses than his craving to enter the Land.

It is only natural to cling to life, and the thought of leaving this world is depressing. However, if a person develops the attitude that he lives only in order to fulfill God's will, then life and death are no longer polar opposites, because he lives to do the will of God, and when that will requires that he leave this world, he will be equally obedient.

The seventh day of Adar is the anniversary of Moses' death. He wanted to enter the Promised Land so that he could fulfill the commandments and thereby have a new opportunity to fulfill the Divine wish. He surrendered his soul willingly when he was told that there was a special commandment for him to perform, one that could only be achieved after leaving this earth.

We refer to Moses as Rabbeinu, our teacher. He not only taught us didactically, but by means of everything he did in his life - and by his death, as well.

Today I shall...

try to dedicate my life to fulfilling the will of God, so that even when that will contradicts my personal desires, I can accept it with serenity.

With stories and insights,
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