Analysis Of Tesla Sales By Geography

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There is a decent amount of information floating around on Tesla's sales by geography. I have pulled together the estimates from the various sources and it looks like Tesla could have sold about 8,000 Model S’ vs. guidance of 7,500 in the June quarter. At 7,500 Model S’ sold Tesla should hit the Street’s $810 million revenue estimate. Each additional 100 cars adds about $10 million in revenue so if the company can come close to 8,000 sold Tesla could generate about $850 million in revenue.

Production was 7,535 in the March quarter vs. sales of 6,457 and had ramped to 700 per week (about a 9,000 unit quarterly run rate) and management projects production to reach 1,000 per week by the end of the year. At some point in time the shipping pipeline will be filled (potentially by the December quarter) so it doesn’t seem unreasonable that sales would be about 1,000 fewer cars than produced in the June quarter.

The U.S. should be responsible for about half of Tesla’s sales. Inside EVs has the company selling 3,900 Model S’ in the quarter while Motor Intelligence (aka Autodata) projection is 4,400.

China could have bypassed Norway to be the second largest country for Tesla. EV Sales estimates that Telsa has already captured the fourth market share position selling 958 Model S’ in June for a total of 1,545 in the quarter. China could have filled the decline that Norway experienced from the March to June quarters.

Europe is the second largest region with an estimated 2,245 Model S’ sold in the quarter. Norway is estimated to be almost half of the total with 1,080 purchased in the June quarter which is down from a projected 2,056 in the March quarter. Norway has a tremendous amount of incentives for electric vehicles and after filling the initial demand it looks like Tesla has shifted deliveries to other countries such as China.

The Netherlands could have come in second in Europe with 356 Model S’ sold with Germany a close third at 307. It then tails off to Switzerland with 120, Denmark at 114 and France at 106.

I don’t have a read on Tesla's sales in the United Kingdom which started deliveries on June 7 so that is a bit of a wild card on how many right side Model S’ were sold.