Wednesday, January 16, 2013

2013 NFL Mock Draft (4 Rounds)

*Update* (4 Rounds)

2/1/13

1st Round

1. Kansas City Chiefs – Geno Smith QB West Virginia

All the QB’s are
going to be drafted higher than many think.In today’s NFL if you don’t have a QB, you have a problem and this will
lead to teams taking risks on the high upside QB rather than the safe position
player. The Chiefs roster is loaded with talent; the major problem is at
QB.So Andy Reid starts off with a QB
rather than the safe Left Tackle in Luke Joeckel.You don’t want a LT Jake Long/QB Chad Henne
combo over QB Matt Ryan (not that Geno Smith is the prospect Matt Ryan was, you
get the idea)

Geno Smith (6’3 220)
has the size/speed/arm to be a Franchise QB.Like every other QB in this class he is very inconsistent but Smith splashes
these big throws at times that give him the “upside” factor.Left Tackle only becomes a need if Albert
leaves via free agency. A WR should be picked later with the impending loss of
Bowe.

2.
Jacksonville Jaguars – Star Lotulelie DT Utah

The Jags need a QB but unless Geno
Smith falls, I think they trade down or wait until the first pick in round
two.Star Lotulelie (6’4, 325) is a
massive DT who lives in the backfield with great explosion off the line, has
drawn comparisons to DT Suh.Personally,
I have Lotulelie as the #1 prospect in the draft.

3.
Oakland Raiders – Damontre Moore DE/OLB Texas A&M

A pure pass-rusher
with experience at OLB and DE.With
their lack of playmakers on the D-Line and pending free agents, they could use
multiple picks on the D-Line.Pick
should come down to DT Lotulelie and DE Moore (6’4, 250).If QB Geno Smith somehow falls, I think the
Raiders pull the trigger on the QB.

4.
Philadelphia Eagles – Luke Joeckel OT Texas A&M

A Jake Long talent
and maybe the best prospect in the draft (I have him as the #2 prospect).The Eagles need O-Line help with the
uncertainty of Jason Peters coming back from injury.LT Joeckel (6‘6, 310) can protect the blind
side for the next 10 years, he’s the total package.QB Geno Smith would be intriguing for new
Head Coach Chip Kelly, if he falls.OLB
Moore and CB Dee Milliner make sense as far as team needs. *Update: with the
switch to the 3-4 defense a true NT is now a need.

5.
Detroit Lions –Bjoern Werner DE/OLB Florida St

CB and O-Line are
needs but the Lions go best player available.Drawing comparisons to DE Chris Long.He can play in the 4-3 at DE (Jags/Lions) or the 3-4 (Browns) as the
pass rushing OLB.Werner (6”4, 255) continues
to move up draft boards.The tape shows
an instinctive knowledge of his position as he loves to knock down passes like
JJ Watt when he knows he can’t get to the QB.

6.
Cleveland Browns – Jarvis Jones OLB Georgia

A true sack machine who can be used
like OLB Von Miller of the Broncos in a 4-3 or rush linebacker in the 3-4. An
elite pass-rusher improves every level of the defense.Jones (6’3, 240) has an explosive first step
off the snap and used speed more than power in college.

*Medical issues are a red flag so
his stock could drop but I’m no doctor and I can’t move a top talent down draft
boards unless team doctors do

7.
Arizona Cardinals – Matt Barkley QB USC

Yup, it’s early and
I think it will happen.Sure it’s a
reach but Barkley (6’2, 220) won’t be available for the Cards second round pick
and the top 4 QB’s could all be gone in the first 33 picks.They need to take a chance and stop wasting
WR Larry Fitzgerald/Floyd.The other
clear option here is LT Eric Fisher.

Barkley is pro-ready
(West Coast) and very accurate.He doesn’t
have any remarkable tools (Height/ Speed/Arm).We’ve seen reaches before and we’ll see it again this year.He’s a better prospect than USC QB’s Sanchez
and Lienart but not on the level of a Carson Palmer.His experience (starter since a freshman)
will be a big plus in the eyes of scouts.QB Glennon may be a better fit for the new vertical passing scheme but I
see Barkley as a slightly better prospect.

8.
Buffalo Bills – Mike Glennon QB North Carolina St

The Bills GM Buddy
Nix has told us he’s taking a Franchise QB.I think that’s Glennon in round one as opposed to the new Head Coaches
former Syracuse’s QB Ryan Nassib in round 1, 2 or 3.

Glennon (6’6, 205)
is the top classic pocket/vertical passing QB in the class and could jump all
the way to #1 come draft day.His
decision making is the big question mark and watching his game tape he is
wildly inconsistent.The tools are there
to be a good starter and your hearing poor man’s Joe Flacco or Ryan Mallet as a
comparison. *Update: Good Senior Bowl, powerful arm and good deep ball.Clearly needs to put on weight and find a
weight room.

9.
New York Jets – Barkevious Mingo DE/OLB LSU

I want to give them
a QB or WR but it has become clear that Rex Ryan is in charge and runs the
whole show/circus.Plus, the Jets could
do something wild (unlikely) like sign Vick if he’s released by the
Eagles.

They have wanted an
OLB pass-rusher for years and Mingo (6’5, 240) is the best available.Mingo has survived on his athletic ability so
far and been great; he now needs to work on shedding blocks when initially shut
down.They have to take a QB somewhere
in this draft (Round 2).*Update: Other pass-rushers are climbing (BYU DE/OLB
Ziggy Ansah)

10.
Tennessee Titans – Dee Milliner CB Alabama

Interior O-Line,
D-Line and the secondary are need areas.The #1 corner in the draft lands with the Titans who have a need at the
position.The top Guard (Warmack) or 4-3
DE could also be considered here.

Miller is a big
(6’1, 200) physical corner who has all the tools to be a shutdown corner.He excels in run support while still keeping
up as a cover corner.Milliner played
well against the best the SEC had to offer and is so polished and ahead of
every other CB in this draft that he could go anywhere from pick 3 to the Titans
at 10.

11.
San Diego Chargers – Eric Fisher OT Western Michigan

They must improve
the O-Line to protect Rivers and a least give the talented QB a chance to
succeed.This is no longer high for
Fisher, with OT’s Lewan and Matthews returning to college, he’s clearly the #2
LT prospect. *Stock up (6’7, 305/Long
arms), dominate at Senior Bowl.No
longer looks like a reach, scouts buzz that he could contend as top overall
Left Tackle.

12.
Miami Dolphins – Codarrelle Patterson WR Tennessee

A true #1 WR is a
huge need since the trade of Brandon Marshall.Even if they lose LT Jack Long they can move Jon Martin to LT and pick a
RT later.If they sign one of the big WR
free agents this pick could change.Other options are a top CB/Safety/Rush OLB.

Patterson has the
most upside of any WR in the draft and will battle Keenan Allen as the first WR
off the board.

13.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers –Johnthan Banks CB Mississippi St

With the trade of CB
Talib to the Patriots, corner is a huge need and they really could use two
starting CB’s.

This is early for
Banks but the lack of top tier CB’s this year moves him up the board.Banks is a big (6’2, 185), physical corner
and instant starter. *Update: Stock may
drop as other CB’s rise (Trufant/Rhodes).

14.
Carolina Panthers – Sheldon Richardson DT Missouri

The Panthers have
needed help at DT for years and the mid round DT picks have not been kind or
produced successful starting caliber lineman.

Richardson is more
of a pass rushing DT than run stuffing and his upside is huge due to this pure
athletic ability.

15.
New Orleans Saints – Ezekiel “Ziggy” Ansah DE BYU

The saints need help
all along the D-Line as they are near the bottom of the league in pass/run
defense.*Update: Looks like the Saints
will be switching to the 3-4 Defense.DL/Rush OLB/Secondary all look to be strong options.

I think this is a
steal at this point of the draft; Ziggy Ansah has the look of Jason Pierre-Paul
2.0 as far as raw ability.He stands 6’6
and 270 lbs. with absolutely freakish athletic ability and could develop into
an elite pass rusher as he gets more football under his belt.Right now he is more skilled in the run game
with insane closing speed, the pass rush is not there yet and he needs to
develop some moves.He could easily fly
up draft boards in the coming months.Ziggy Ansah can play 4-3 DE, 5 technique in the 3-4 and rush OLB in the
odd front.At the Senior Bowl, he didn’t
look good in practice but when it was game time and he could just go out and
play and not think about technique he dominated and showed everything scouts
are buzzing about (closing speed/athletic/playmaker).*Update: Scouts are really split on Ansah,
some see a clear Top 10 pick while others say he’s too raw and will be taken in
the late teens (Giants).I see a clear
Top 5-10 talent and that’s without any real pass rush moves.

16.
St. Louis Rams – Chance Warmack G Alabama

O-line, WR and
Safety are all option here.Guards
rarely go this high but Warmack (6’3, 320) is the best interior O-Line prospect
to come out in years; he could go as high as the Titans at 10 or even the
Cardinals at 7.Yeah, he’s that good.

17.
Pittsburgh Steelers – Dion Jordan DE/OLB Oregon

Giving the Steelers
a big time pass-rushing OLB is always a good call and Jordan (6’6, 240) is the
BPA at a position they covet.

Jordan could go as high as the Jets if he
checks out medically (Shoulder).A high
upside pass-rusher who still has room to put on weight, he can play 4-3 DE or
OLB in the 3-4.

18.
Dallas Cowboys – Sharrif Floyd DT Florida

Team needs include
interior O-Line, D-Line and Safety.They
are changing Defensive schemes and will now run and base 4-3 cover 2
Defense.They now need the players to
fit the scheme and a true DT will go a long way to ease the transition.Jay Ratliff’s future was uncertain to begin
with and now a DWI could land him out of Dallas, making D-Line an even bigger
need.

Florida DT Sharrif Floyd has great
upside; he’s only 20 years old and already flashes dominance with his athletic
ability, burst off the line and ability to collapse the pocket.He’s played both DE and DT which just proves
his athletic ability is off the charts for such a big guy.*Update: Lots of buzz that Floyd could fly up
boards, possibly into the top 10

19.
New York Giants – Alec Ogletree LB Georgia

The Giants have
needs at D-Line, Linebacker, Corner and O-Line.O-Line becomes a big issue if the Giants can’t resign LT Beatty and LG
Booth, RT Diehl could be cut but RT James Brewer could step in.At DE, Osi is out and Justin Tuck had a down
year.CB Corey Webster was truly awful
and hard to watch and the Giants have needed Linebackers forever.The best available DE is the most likely
scenario but BYU DE Ziggy Ansah is off the board.LB options include Teo/Ogletree; DE here
could be Texas DE Alex Oakfor and the last true Left Tackle here would be
Oklahoma’s Lane Johnson.

Ogletree (6’3, 225)
is the total package.A three down
linebacker with sideline to sideline speed and he can play all three LB
positions (I see a middle linebacker or Sam backer in the 4-3.Good size/speed and a nose for the
football.*Stock up

20.
Chicago Bears – Jonathan Cooper G North Carolina

O-Line, O-Line,
O-Line.The Bears need upgrades across
the line and need to give Cutler a chance.Cooper is a good start.They
could look for a future MLB like Manti Teo/Ogletree but the line has to be the
top priority.

21.
Cincinnati Bengals –Kenny Vaccaro S Texas

The Bengals have
been one of the best drafting teams over the last few years and will be looking
to load up with all their picks. What a great pick-up in LB Vontez Burfict as
an undrafted free agent last year.Need
areas are a 3 down RB, DE, Safety and LB. If they lose DE Michael Johnson via
free agency the best available DE makes sense (DE Alex Oakfor).It’s a bit early for a RB here and if LB
Malaluga leaves a LB like Ogletree could be the pick.

Kenny Vaccaro is the
clear cut #1 Safety in the draft and for good reason.He is a true difference maker on D in the
mold of Troy Polamalu.He has all the
tools, size/speed and great football instincts.*Stock up, scouts say he could go top 10.

22.
St. Louis Rams (via Redskins) –Keenan Allen WR California

The Rams could go a
lot of different ways with this pick (Safety, O-line) but giving Sam Bradford
another weapon can only help.

Keenan Allen is
battling Tennessee WR Codarrelle Patterson for the #1 WR prospect spot in the
draft.Allen, 6’3, 200lbs, has all the
traits you look for in a WR with great Height/Weight/Speed and production.Not elite speed but can create space off the
line.

23.
Minnesota Vikings – Terrance Williams WR Baylor

The Vikings need a
true #1 WR to compliment Harvin, Peterson and Rudolf.They just need to continue to surround Ponder
with weapons to maximize his potential.Other options include DT or CB.

Williams (6’2,
200lbs) matches great size with speed and is a better prospect then last year
Baylor 1st rounder Kendall Wright.The Vikings should take the best available WR to make this offense the
juggernaut it can be with Adrian Peterson.

24.
Indianapolis Colts – Lane Johnson OT Oklahoma

Protect Andrew Luck
at all cost, he’s the franchise.DT and
Safety are also big needs but keeping Luck off the turf has to be the top
priority. Wilt the loss of their second round pick (Vonte Davis) they could
trade down and still get their player.

*Stock up (6’6,
302/Left Tackle), could eventually move into mid-1st round (Giants) with lack
of elite Left Tackles.

25.
Seattle Seahawks – DeAndre Hopkins WR Clemson

Tough to mock for
the Seahawks, they have their own draft board and it’s proved to be extremely
successful.They could go WR, OT, TE or
DE/DT.

A difference maker
at WR like Hopkins, who can really stretch the field, would greatly benefit
Russell Wilson.

26.
Green Bay Packers –Jonathan Hankins DT Ohio St

O-line/D-Line/Linebacker
are needs and TE Finley could leave via free agency.The Packers can take the best player
available here and shore up the D-Line.If Finley does leave then TE’s Tyler Eifert/Zach Ertz should be
considered.A true Left Tackle like Lane
Johnson would be considered if available.

27.
Houston Texans – Kevin Minter ILB LSU

A #2 WR is still a
need but an impact inside linebacker could bring the Texans D back to last
year’s dominanceCushing is coming off
an injury so Minter could be insurance and eventual starter alongside Cushing.

28. Denver Broncos – Kawann Short DT Purdue

After watching the playoffs its
clear Champ Baily is on the decline and CB is a need area along with DT and OG.I think the best available DT or CB like
Trufant/Rhodes.

*Stock up, DT Short
has been impressive with his quick burst off the line and ability to be
explosive (great hands) and make plays in the backfield.

29.
New England Patriots –Tavon Austin WR West Virginia

It looks like Wes
Welker will be back for one more year but Austin is a Wes Welker clone and could
replace him down the road.Austin (5’9,
175) is the ideal slot receiver but can start outside and stretch the field for
Brady.Another offensive weapon would be
scary to this already dynamic offense.Corners Desmond Trufant or Xavier Rhodes fit BB’s scheme and would make
a lot of sense here.

I think the #1
option here would be to trade down (to a team looking for a QB) and get their
player in Round 2 while recouping some of the mid-round picks they lost through
trades.

30.
Atlanta Falcons – Sam Montgomery DE LSU

Needs include
D-Line, TE, RB and some help on the O-Line.

I think the #1
priorityis to find another pass-rusher; DE Abraham has battled through
injuries and Montgomery could be his eventual replacement down the road.

A TE could be in the
mix but it’s a deep draft for TE’s and to be honest Tony G is showing no signs
of slowing down, he’s actually getting better if that’s even possible.

31.
Baltimore Ravens –Manti Teo ILB Notre Dame

Ray Lewis is in his
final season and it’s time to find his replacement.If Ed Reed leaves, a Safety could be in play here
(Florida S Elam).

And now we get to
Manti Teo, this is one crazy story and his draft stock is all over the place
right now.The interview process becomes
HUGE for him now as teams try and figure out what kind of guy he really is off
the field.The talent is there and
should trump any character concerns come draft day. *Update: Really struggled
against Alabama’s pro like O-Line, Ogletree and Minter could pass him.

32.
San Francisco 49ers – John Jenkins NT/DT Georgia

The 49ers have a
great defense but lack depth on the D-Line.Jenkins goes 6’3, 350lbs and is just a massive human being with good
athleticism working inside in the 3-4 Defense or DT in a 4-3. Vince Wilfork
type frame.*Stock up, could go as high
as Panthers at 14.

Round
2

33.
Jacksonville Jaguars – Tyler Wilson QB Arkansas

Stock up as far as
height/weight (6’2).He’s still in the
conversation to be the top QB chosen; he has the arm and makeup to be a
starter.His film is inconsistent (as is
every QB this year) deep ball accuracy is a problem and his O-Line was truly
awful this year forcing a lot of ill-advised throws which is making him an even
tougher evaluations for scouts.

34.
Kansas City Chiefs – Justin Hunter WR Tennessee

WR Bowe could leave
via free agency.Injuries throughout
college drop Hunter a bit.

35.
Philadelphia Eagles – Matt Elam S Florida

Could go late 1st

36.
Detroit Lions – Barrett Jones C/G Alabama

Jones is the most
versatile O-Lineman in the draft and has played all 5 positions along the
line.

Stock up,
Big/athletic former Basketball player.He has everything you want in a Left Tackle.

39.
New York Jets – EJ Manuel QB Florida
State

Stock up, Good Senior Bowl.At 6’4, 220 he has all the physical tools and should continue to climb
draft boards, I expect someone to take a chance on him in round 2.His game tape is wildly inconsistent; he
needs a good coach and a few years

40. Tennessee Titans – Larry Warford G Kentucky

Stock up (6’3,
333).A Big mauler, very impressive on
film with his ability to just manhandle defensive tackles.Interior O-Line is a need.

41.
Buffalo Bills –Da’Rick Rogers WR Tennessee Tech

More WR options for
the young QB.WR Rodgers started off at
Tennessee then transferred to Tech.

42.
Miami Dolphins – Tyler Eifert TE Notre Dame

TE Tyler Eifert
should be a strong consideration here.He’s battling Stanford’s TE Zach Ertz as the first TE off the board.
Either TE could easily go late in the 1st round.

43.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Xavier Rhodes CB Florida St

Rhodes is a big, physical, athletic corner who could
really rise up the draft during the combine/team workouts.*Other CB’s seem to be pushing him down draft
boards (Desmond Trufant on the rise) but the scouting process should be good to
Rhodes given his physical gifts.

44.
Carolina Panthers – DJ Fluker OT Alabama

Stock up (6’4, 355/long arms),
could move into the 1st round.

45.
San Diego Chargers – Sylvester Williams DT North Carolina

Stock up, great
Senior Bowl

New
Orleans Saints – *Forfeited (Bounty)

46.
St. Louis Rams – Eric Reid S LSU

Stock up

47.
Pittsburgh Steelers – Eddie Lacy RB Alabama

Could be 2nd
RB off the board

48.
Dallas Cowboys – Dallas Thomas OG/OT Tennessee

Looks like he will kick inside to
Guard (6’5, 305/Guard), which is a big need for the Cowboys.

49.
New York Giants – Margus Hunt DE SMU

Stock up (6’8, 277)
Physical Freak/Raw with untapped potential.May be better suited as a 5 Technique in the 3-4 D.I’m Leaving him here for now as a LE in the
4-3.

50.
Chicago Bears – Zach Ertz TE Stanford

Stock up, could go
late 1st round

51.
Cincinnati Bengals – Alex Oakfor DE Texas

Stock up, most
scouts say 1st round eventually

52.
Washington Redskins – Desmond Trufant CB Washington

Stock up, possible 1st
round

53.
Minnesota Vikings – Jesse Williams DT Alabama

Stock up

54.
Miami Dolphins (via Colts) – Phillip Thomas S Fresno St

Stock up, Round 2

55.
Green Bay Packers – Justin Pugh OG/OT Syracuse

Stock down as a Left Tackle/ Stock
up at Guard (6’4, 305/short arms, guard), May not make it at Left Tackle but
could be impact Guard. Better version of Giants David Diehl.

56.
Seattle Seahawks – Corey Lemonier DE/OLB Auburn

Stock up

57.
Houston Texans – Arthur Brown OLB Kansas St

Stock up, Round 1/2

58.
Denver Broncos –Jamar Taylor CB Boise St

Stock up.Secondary help is needed at every level

59.
New England Patriots – David Amerson CB/S North Carolina

A big, 6’3 corner
who could end up at Safety.Great size
and versatility.

60.
Atlanta Falcons – Bennie Logan DT LSU

Stock up, could go
late-1st round

61.
Baltimore Ravens – Travis Frederick OG/C Wisconsin

62.
San Francisco 49ers – TJ McDonald S USC

Stock up, big/physical safety.

Round 3

63.
Kansas City Chiefs – Chris Faulk OT LSU

Stock up

64. Jacksonville Jaguars – Brennan Williams OT North Carolina

65.
Detroit Lions – Logan Ryan CB Rutgers

66.
Oakland Raiders –Kyle Long OT Oregon

Stock up (Room to grow/Howie Longs
son)

67.
Philadelphia Eagles –Jordan Poyer CB Oregon St

68.
Cleveland Browns – Ryan Nassib QB Syracuse

Stock down (6’2),
Andy Dalton comparisons.Nassib could go
as high as the Bills in round 1 or now round 2. Mixed reports from Senior Bowl,
I’m not seeing any special tools and he just can’t throw the deep ball