Monday, September 30, 2013

In my opinion the Perth Mint 2014 Year of the Horse Three-Coin Set will hit a price of around $525 shortly after sold out at the Perth Mint (i.e. on the secondary market) and the 2014 Year of the Horse 1oz Silver Proof Coin I expect to see at $150-175. That's a total of $675-700 with a cost to purchase that I am expecting at or near $435 total...

I don't expect any of these will perform as well as the standard 1oz & Three Coin Set, however the Typeset Collection is usually fast to sellout (due to it's limited 1,500 set mintage) and the coloured proof 1oz coins have often proven popular on release.

A great set of coins visually. The 5oz Silver coin is being sold by ballot and has seen a large increase in the number minted relative to last year given the high demand. The mintage on the 1oz Silver and 1/4oz Gold coins has also been bumped up (but not nearly to the extent of the 5oz). All have increased substantially in price from last year even though we've seen a drop in the spot price of Silver.

The description provided for the design reads as follows:

In conjunction with the 2014 Lunar Horse year, the Monetary Authority of Macau issues the Macau Horse coin which is the seventh in the Macau Lunar coin collection (2008- 2019), exclusively minted and marketed by The Singapore Mint.

The magnificent horse is illustrated in an awe-inspiring pose on the obverse side of the coin: rearing on its hind legs, seemingly at the brink of take-off. This burst of vigor and forward-looking spirit hints at the beginning of many good things to come, in your career or life.

The horse is accompanied by a cascade of alluring camellia flowers in full bloom. They come in many vibrant colours and just like the horse’s unyielding resilience, these flowers flourish even in cold weathers; upholding brilliance no matter the circumstance.

The coin’s reverse side embodies the carvings of the Guia Fortress – in commemoration of Macau’s maritime, military and missionary past. The fortress, a UNESCO World Heritage Site, is also a popular tourist attraction of Macau.

Here are some further details for the three coins available:

2014 Macau Horse 5oz 999 Fine Silver Proof Coin with colour

Mintage: 2000 (up from 500 last year)Issue Date: October 31st, 2013Retail Price: S$950 (AUD$815), increase from S$780 last year

Macau Horse 1oz 999 Fine Silver Proof Coin with colour

Mintage: 8000 (up from 6000 last year)Issue Date: October 31st, 2013Retail Price: S$158.00 (AUD$135), increase from S$138 last year

2014 Macau Horse 1/4oz 999.9 Fine Gold Proof Coin with colour

Mintage: 5000 (up from 3000 last year)Issue Date: October 31st, 2013Retail Price: S$970 (AUD$830), increase from S$860 last year

A reader of the blog 'LAB' provided these photos some time ago showing some of the Macau Lunar Series Coins in the flesh:

"All those who purchased the Australian Lunar Series II 2oz Silver Proof Coin Collection (with the first six coins) will receive a letter / email inviting them to secure the 2014 Year of the Horse release. These notifications will be sent out by the Mint in November. It will include details of how long their coin will be reserved and the final order date should they wish to proceed."

Good news that those who have started the collection will be able to complete it without hassle.

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The Perth Mint Australian Lunar Series II 2014 Year of the Horse Proof Coins were released today. I expect the Silver Three-Coin Set & 1oz Silver Proof to be the fastest sellers, but some of the other sizes may also be a hot commodity.

The Silver Three-Coin set was unavailable within around 10 minutes on the site after launch, but expect that more may be released in the morning, so keep alert!

Here is some direct links to the products that have been released today:

The 2014 silver releases are available as individual 1 Kilo, 1oz and 1/2oz coins, or in a stunning three-coin set comprising a 2oz, 1oz and 1/2oz coin.

No more than 500 Kilo coins will be released worldwide. An issue limit of 8,000 1/2oz coins and 5,000 1oz coins released from each maximum mintage of 9,000 and 8,500 respectively. There will be no more than 1,000 Three-Coin Sets released. The 2oz coin within the Three-Coin Set has a maximum mintage of 2,000.

The 2014 gold releases are available as individual 1oz, 1/4oz and 1/10oz coins, or in a stunning three-coin set comprising all three issues.Extremely Limited Mintages

No more than 3,000 individual 1oz coins and 5,000 individual 1/4oz and 1/10oz coins will be released from their maximum mintages of 6,000 and 8,000 respectively. The remaining 3,000 coins in each size are compiled to create the Three-Coin Set.

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I sought clarification on the 2oz Silver Proof Coin given that it wasn't released with the other proof coins and had some email queries, this was the answer provided by the Perth Mint:"All those who purchased the Australian Lunar Series II 2oz Silver Proof Coin Collection (with the first six coins) will receive a letter / email inviting them to secure the 2014 Year of the Horse release. These notifications will be sent out by the Mint in November. It will include details of how long their coin will be reserved and the final order date should they wish to proceed."So no need to worry camping on the refresh button if you've purchased one of the sets!

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Monday, September 2, 2013

"...a coin collector is someone who purchases the coins for the personal enjoyment of the coins themselves. They buy the coins not to flip them at a higher price in a short period of time (although purchasing below their market value might still be a goal of the collector), but to hold them for longer term increases in value and to enjoy inspecting them as well as sharing their finds and sets with others..."

On that note this post is not about coin collecting, but rather about coin speculation:

"...a speculator in the Silver coin market might be someone who buys modern bullion releases at a higher premium than normal to spot with the expectation the premium will increase over time (due to the coins rarity), it might be someone who buys a large number of new release numismatic coins to try and corner the market, it might be someone who looks for key dates in sets (those with the lowest mintage) to speculate that collector demand for these will increase with time. A speculator is someone who is buying the coins with the intention of profit rather than personal enjoyment..."

"...the results, while varied, show that the bullion Silver Lunars have performed much better than the spot increase and much better than the numismatic Lunar coins. In most cases low premium Silver would have outperformed the numismatic Lunar coins as well..."

While I can appreciate the aesthetics of a well designed coin (there are some I own which I will never sell) and understand the attraction for collectors, for the most part I speculate/invest in precious metals for profit. When it comes to coin speculation I have had both good and bad experiences. A purchase of 50 x 2010 Clownfish coins a few years back went against me when I got too greedy, waited too long to sell and barely broke even. A recent purchase of 20 x 2013 Carded Stock horse coins went well, I sold them quickly and almost doubled my money.

The potential to speculate on proof lunar coins from Perth Mint has been limited in recent years due to strict purchase limits put on the coins. However there may be an opportunity to make a couple of hundred dollars for those inclined to go to the effort...

The Perth Mint 2013 Silver Lunar Snake Proof Coins have performed poorly over the last 12 months. Many of them traded at premiums to issue price for a short time after they were sold out (some are even still available from the Perth Mint), but quickly came back to earth. Many of the proof coins now sell for around issue price, sometimes even less. Here are a couple of recent completed sales (many that are listed for higher prices go unsold):

Prices achieve from ebay can vary significantly though based on which you list on, for example ebay.de (Germany) has seen some recent sales of the 1oz proof snake at US$109.

"If last years Lunar Dragon release is to be of any guide on what which will be the most popular you will want to stick with the Silver 1oz Proof Coin and the Silver 3 Coin Proof Set. Shortly after their release the 3 Coin Proof Dragon Set was selling for around $800-1000 (over double the release price) and the 1oz Proof Dragon by itself trebled, selling for $300-400.

Peak prices from my observation were obtained only a short time after their release (although this might also be a result of a falling/low spot price for Silver since that time), so if you are looking to flip any coins, selling shortly after they sell out from official outlets might be a method to achieve the best price."

Some might expect a repeat of the snake, but in my opinion the horse will be a more popular coin and while it might peak in the short term again, I don't think it will fall back below issue price. Just taking a look at a recent result from the 2001 & 2002 Three-Coin Sets gives an indication of higher demand for the horse design with that set finishing 42% higher than the snake (although this can also be attributed in part to the lower mintage, hence rarity, of the horse 3 coin set, 278 vs 599 for the snake):

Recent completed sales on ebay of Series II Three-Coin Sets I've seen indicate prices circa $400 (for Rabbit, Snake) to $500 (for Tiger). Only time will tell how the horse coins go, but as I mentioned earlier in the article... "there may be an opportunity to make a couple of hundred dollars for those inclined". In my opinion the Perth Mint 2014 Year of the Horse Three-Coin Set will hit a price of around $525 shortly after sold out at the Perth Mint (i.e. on the secondary market) and the 2014 Year of the Horse 1oz Silver Proof Coin I expect to see at $150-175. That's a total of $675-700 with a cost to purchase that I am expecting at or near $435 total ($340 for Three-Coin Set, $95 for 1oz Proof). Perth Mint is offering free post for purchases over $400, so no cost for that if you purchased both. That would leave you with profit of $240-265 (with ebay fees likely to cost you around $65). It's a fair bit of stuffing around for a couple of hundred dollars and of course a profit that size is not guaranteed, the horse may exceed or under perform my expectations. I've not yet decided whether I will be making a purchase overnight, but for those interested you need to keep an eye on the recent release page here:

The coins go on sale from 12.01am 3rd September 2013 (AWST), which by the looks is:

1.30am in Adelaide

2.00am Brisbane/Sydney/Melbourne

Set your alarm clocks if you are desperate to purchase these coins (for collecting or speculation!), in my experience the 1oz Proof and Three-Coin Sets tend to last minutes when made available on the site, rather than hours or days. However, if you miss out on the late night release, they do often put some more on the website the next morning.

Following the bullion release during the day, the Australian Lunar Series II 2014 Year of the Horse Gold and Silver Proof Coins will be available from tonight, 12.01AM 3 September (AWST). Presumably this will see the release of the standard lunar proof coin lineup (links will take you to latest releases page where coins will be found after release time, I will update with direct product links once available):

The standard proof designs will be the same as the bullion coins, but with the finish reversed. The Perth Mint provided the following description of the proof vs bullion coins on their coin blog last year:

Proof Coins

The very highest quality coins produced by The Perth Mint feature a proof finish. The coin table (background) is highly-polished and mirror-like.

Traditionally, design elements are delicately frosted. However, as an alternative, we colour some or all design elements on many of our proof quality releases.

Bullion Coins

Bullion coins are made for the purpose of investing in precious metals. They are mass produced to keep the price as close to ‘spot’ as possible. As a result, the finish on many bullion coins issued worldwide is uniform with no distinctively polished or frosted areas.

The Perth Mint takes a different approach. Our bullion coins feature a frosted table and a shiny design (the opposite way round to proof issues). The quality of each strike means that our bullion coins are sometimes referred to as “reverse proofs”. Indeed, we would claim they have the best quality bullion finish in the world.

The images we can expect to see on the standard proof coins:

Point your browser to the lunar coin page (click here) or the new releases page (click here) following the release time if you want to get your hands on any of the proof releases. No doubt the Silver proof coins will be fast to sell out, but only time will tell whether they will make a good investment. No doubt however that many collectors will be scrambling to buy their favourite or complete a set regardless of what prices do once sold out.

Don't forget the Perth Mint also has free shipping on orders A$400 or higher: