Euro Guido

The EU Parliament’s Brexit co-ordinator Guy Verhofstadt took to the stage at Lib Dem conference this evening to claim the EU is “acting too little” and needs to become an empire, to rapturous applause. At least he’s being more honest than previous Lib Dem speakers…

From 9am -12pm next Wednesday the European Parliament will hold a big debate on the Brexit process. Curiously, the largest party in the Parliament has been allocated just one minute of the three hours of speaking time, despite making up 4% of all MEPs, and the debate being about the literal namesake of their party. Guido doubts it will be worth watching this 99.5% Remoaning winge-a-thon…

Former leader of the National Union of Mineworkers, Arthur Scargill, has called on all socialists to oppose any Labour MPs wanting to stay in the European Union. Good old traditional Labour…

Scargill proffered his Brexit call to arms at a meeting of the left-wing Brexit Group, Leave Fight Transform (LeFT), saying “every single MP who wants us to go back into Europe should be opposed… that is my view, as a socialist, as a Marxist”.

Scargill went even further, criticising his former comrade, Jeremy Corbyn, for his Brexit u-turn from opposing the Lisbon Treaty to now creating a pro-EU Labour Party that is “indistinguishable from the 21 MPs who have left the Tory Party”. This will be an easy point for Boris to score at the next PMQs…

Yesterday’s pro-Brexit ruling in Northern Ireland thoroughly dismissed a Remainer case attempting to make No Deal illegal – by arguing it would damage the Northern Ireland peace process. In his judgement Lord Justice McCloskey thoroughly slapped down the spurious arguments that the Belfast (Good Friday) Agreement hinges on membership of the European Union, or even regulatory alignment with it…

“Neither NIA 1998 nor the international treaty scheduled to the Belfast Agreement (or, for that matter, the Agreement itself) has the effect in law of requiring the continued membership of the EU on the part of the UK.

The Supreme Court was alert to this in Miller: see [129]. Furthermore, none of the sources mentioned subjects the EU 27 to conclude an Article 50 Withdrawal Agreement in any particular terms.”

“Once again, neither the Belfast Agreement nor this suite of provisions was predicated on the basis that UK membership of the EU would continue forever. Neither of them can be construed as requiring a customs Union or continued regulatory alignment. More fundamentally, there is no sufficient evidential foundation for the incompatibility asserted. There is no suggestion that the incompatibility has already materialised”

This expert ruling will come as sad news to some of Guido’s Remoaner friends, who have repeatedly, erroneously, argued that it does:

It is impossible for anyone who understands the Good Friday Agreement to believe that Northern Ireland can leave the Customs Union without breaking the treaty. Hoey is not the only one daft or deluded enough to miss this point. But this? This is a whole new level of batshittery. https://t.co/4TFQQzdnM4

The Good Friday Agreement is guaranteed by the EU. Without the EU and the four freedoms, without the Uk and Ireland both being in the EU, it wouldn’t have been possible. Hence why the GFA and peace are threatened by Brexit.

Ireland & UK signed the Good Friday Agreement explicitly as EU members. 3,600 deaths preceded it. If there was an easy solution they’d have found it at 36 deaths.
WE chose to undermine the agreement with no solution.
We should be ASHAMED that it’s not US insisting on the backstop

John Bercow delivered a highly politically charged speech at last night’s Bingham Lecture, particularly hitting out at Brexiteers, and ignoring his own flagrant disregard for the constitution. The supposedly impartial speaker took the opportunity to declare that he supports written constitution, and even ad-libbed from his script to actually compare the Prime Minister to a knife-wielding street gang member. A new Speaker can’t come soon enough…

The Remaniacs Podcast has reacted with fury after discovering the Government’s ‘prepare for Brexit’ ads are being broadcast in front of the latest episode.

Dear listeners, if you’re getting #GetReadyForBrexitAdBollocks before your podcast, please understand that a] We don’t get to choose the automated pre-rolls, and b] We will be putting this slice of Gove’s £100m to a use that will please one and all. Watch this space.

The Euro has fallen sharply against the pound as a result of a sweeping host of measures from the European Central Bank aimed at stimulating the ailing Eurozone economy. The bank today announced a 10 bps rate cut, aggressive forward guidance, and open ended quantitative easing at €20 billion every month. With panicky measures like this, the last thing the Eurozone needs now is a No Deal Brexit…

In the wilder corners of Twitter, the remainiacs have a meta-conspiracy theory they call “Brexit Disaster Capitalism”, it has a number of components and is based on some far-fetched premises;

Brexit will be a disaster and lead to economic collapse.

Prominent rich Brexiteers know this, they intend to profit from it by selling short stocks high to buy back low after the disaster.

City tycoons and hedge fund managers financed the Brexit campaign to bring about the collapse from which they will profit massively whilst the rest of us suffer.

The fact that Jacob Rees-Mogg, for example, has an interest in a fund management firm is cited as proof. The latest incarnation and attempt to shore up the theory is based on the publicly-disclosed short interests of various fund managers who have given money to the Tories, Vote Leave or Boris Johnson’s campaigns. Carole Cadwalladr tweeted last night that they have aggregate short positions of some £4,563,350,000. Four and a half billion quid of shorts by Brexit-backing fund managers sounds like a huge amount. Except it isn’t in relative terms.

The UK stock market is capitalised at over £4 trillion, so that aggregate short position is equivalent to something like a tenth of 1% of the market. Nothing unusual. Long/short funds usually trade stock pairs, so the funds most likely won’t even be that short in net terms because a fund goes short one stock and hedges the position long another stock (hence the term “hedge* fund”). The profit (or loss) is from the difference in the stocks’ relative performances.

More obviously, these funds are overall net long the market, if these rapacious plutocrats were betting on disaster, why would they be positioned to profit massively when the broad stock market went up and lose when it went down? Publicly available data, for example, shows that the prominent Brexiteer donor Paul Marshall’s firm has £1.3 billion in short positions on the UK stock market. His firm manages some £30 billion of assets. Which suggests he is in reality geared to profit far more from rising than falling stock markets.

Incidentally, if the fund managers had been short since referendum night they would have lost their fortunes, given the FTSE is up over a 1000 points since the referendum. The whole “Brexit Disaster Capitalism” conspiracy theory does not make sense even if you accept the premise that the Brexit will be a disaster. The hedge fund managers are long the market in the expectation stocks will continue to rise…

*The hedge might also be against derivatives or the relevant market index. To go short without hedge is to be nakedly short. A brave trade.

The second referendum campaign for Tory MPs, Right to Vote, set up by Phillip Lee, no longer contains a single Tory MP among their ranks, following multiple defections, resignations and withdrawals of the whip by the Government. Coincidentally the website and campaign have since folded…

At its height, the group contained 10 Tory MPs in its fold, however, following a record number of MPs changing party, the supposedly Conservative campaign is now led by a Lib Dem and counts four independents, one ‘The Independents’ MP and one ‘The Independent Group for Change’ MP among others. Keeping up?

The only sign the group was ever Tory-affiliated is the two remaining Tory Lords, who will be grateful that Boris said he wouldn’t withdraw the whip from any Lords supporting the Surrender Bill. A good demonstration of the change seen in British politics over the last year.

Guido was at Comedy Unleashed last night and saw Geoff’s full set where he tried out some new material for his upcoming tour. Comedy Unleashed are trying something new and risking going to both the Labour and Tory Conferences. Well worth checking out:

This week the UK reached agreements with South Africa, Botswana, Lesotho, Namibia, Eswatini and Mozambique for trade continuity after Brexit, ensuring deals will signed worth £10 billion to the UK economy.

These new countries mean that Liz Truss’ Department for International Trade has reached agreements in the last few months with 44 countries and the Palestinian authority. Guido brings you the full, ever growing list along with their population and GDP here…

Antigua and Barbuda 102,012 1.532 billion

Bahamas 395,361 12.16 billion

Barbados 285,719 4.797 billion

Belize 374,681 1.838 billion

Botswana 2.292 million 17.41 billion

Chile 18.95 million 277.1 billion

Colombia 49.07 million 309.2 billion

Costa Rica 4.906 million 57.06 billion

Dominica 73,925 562.5 million

Dominican Republic 10.77 million 75.93 billion

Ecuador 16.62 million 103.1 billion

El Salvador 6.378 million 24.81 billion

Eswatini 1.367 million 4.409 billion

Faroe Islands 49,290 2.477 billion

Fiji 905,502 5.061 billion

Grenada 107,825 1.119 billion

Guatemala 16.91 million 75.62 billion

Guyana 777,859 3.676 billion

Haiti 10.98 million 8.408 billion

Honduras 9.265 million 22.98 billion

Iceland 338,349 23.91 billion

Israel 8.712 million 350.9 billion

Jamaica 2.89 million 14.77 billion

Korea 51.47 million 1.531 trillion

Lesotho 2.233 million 2.639 billion

Lichenstein 37,810 6.289 billion

Madagascar 25.57 million 11.5 billion

Mauritius 1.265 million 13.34 billion

Mozambique 29.67 million 12.33 billion

Namibia 2.534 million 13.24 billion

Nicaragua 6.218 million 13.81 billion

Norway 5.258 million 398.8 billion

Palestinian Authority 4.817 million 15 billion

Panama 4.099 million 61.84 billion

Papua New Guinea 8.251 million 21.09 billion

Peru 32.17 million 211.4 billion

Seychelles 95,843 1.486 billion

South Africa 56.72 million 349.4 billion

St Kitts and Nevis 55,345 945.9 million

St Lucia 178,844 1.712 billion

St Vincent and the Grenadines 109,897 789.6 million

Suriname 563,402 3.324 billion

Switzerland 8.42 million 678.9 billion

Trinidad and Tobago 1.369 million 22.1 billion

Zimbabwe 16.53 million 17.85 billion

Remainers said the UK would never sign these deals by Brexit day. DIT is pretty rapidly proving them wrong…

After 3 years of dithering, u-turning and total confusion, last night Jeremy Corbyn finally gave up on trying to assert a Brexit policy on the Labour Party. He conceded to offering his cabinet a free vote in a second referendum should they win power…

Corbyn will also allow his MPs to campaign on either side of his proposed referendum – granting a huge choice between remaining, and staying in the customs union and regulatory orbit of the single market.

The move comes after Emily Thornberry’s excruciating Question Time appearance last week, where she had to explain with a straight face that if Labour came to power she would help negotiate a new deal with the EU, then campaign against it to stay in.

Meanwhile, deputy party leader Tom Watson has come up with yet another excuse to vote against a general election – saying there should be a second referendum beforehand. Maybe the new strategy is to make Britons so exhausted with as many votes as possible that they don’t notice Labour’s spinelessness…

Irish cider and beer maker C&C Group, whose brands include Magners and Bulmers ciders as well as Tennants lager, said it will seek admission to London’s FTSE and discontinue its Irish stock market listing, simultaneously switching its financial reporting from euros to sterling from October 7, the company announced this morning. The company will cancel its listing in Dublin, despite Brexit…

The SNP love going on about how more Remain votes than Leave votes came from Scotland in the United Kingdom’s EU referendum. They don’t like mentioning that more than a million Scots voted to leave, or the fact that if you disregard the Leave votes from Scotland and Northern Ireland, Remain would have won. Guido has compiled some data that might offer the Scot Nats a reason to think again about ignoring the sizeable contingent of Scottish Brexiteers…

In half of the SNPs 35 seats, the Leave percentage outweighed the SNP vote share in the 2017 election. The SNP MPs who have cause to be worried are:

The EU has announced the planned structure of Ursula von der Leyen’s forthcoming Commission, with a new college of eight ‘vice-presidents’. A whole swathe of new bureaucrats to be thoroughly bored by…

One role attracting attention, however, is that given to Greece’s Margaritis Schinas who will be taking up the role of ‘Protecting our European Way of Life’, which – when clarified – will cover migration and security. Guido’s sure if Donald Trump had created a ‘protecting our way of life’ job to deal with immigration, pro-EU lefties would be losing their heads…

New jobs figures released today by the ONS show average pay leaping to a growth rate of 4% in the last year, the fastest increase in over a decade, and twice the rate of inflation. Unemployment continues to tumble, seeing its lowest levels in 45 years, and the last year saw over 300,000 more full time jobs than a year ago. All despite Brexit…

That this House has considered the matter of prorogation with the imminence of an exit from the European Union and accordingly resolves–That a Humble Address be presented to Her Majesty, that she will be graciously pleased to direct Ministers to lay before this House, not later than 11.00pm Wednesday 11 September, all correspondence and other communications (whether formal or informal, in both written and electronic form, including but not limited to messaging services including WhatsApp, Telegram, Signal, Facebook messenger, private email accounts both encrypted and unencrypted, text messaging and iMessage and the use of both official and personal mobile phones) to, from or within the present administration, since 23 July 2019 relating to the prorogation of Parliament sent or received by one or more of the following individuals: Hugh Bennett, Simon Burton, Dominic Cummings, Nikki da Costa, Tom Irven, Sir Roy Stone, Christopher James, Lee Cain or Beatrice Timpson; and that Ministers be further directed to lay before this House no later than 11.00pm Wednesday 11 September all the documents prepared within Her Majesty’s Government since 23 July 2019 relating to operation Yellowhammer and submitted to the Cabinet or a Cabinet Committee.

Remainers in parliament have passed a motion to present a Humble Address to the Queen with the aim of forcing the government to reveal communications with journalists. Downing Street says tha “under no circumstances will No. 10 staff comply with Grieve’s demands regardless of any votes in Parliament”. Guido has notified those named in the humble address, with whom he has communicated, that he expects them to protect his rights under Article 10 of the Human Rights Act and notify him in advance of any action or inaction which might potentially prejudice his rights under the Act.

Article 10 of the Human Rights Act states

Freedom of expression

1. Everyone has the right to freedom of expression. This right shall include freedom to hold opinions and to receive and impart information and ideas without interference by public authority and regardless of frontiers. This Article shall not prevent States from requiring the licensing of broadcasting, television or cinema enterprises.

2. The exercise of these freedoms, since it carries with it duties and responsibilities, may be subject to such formalities, conditions, restrictions or penalties as are prescribed by law and are necessary in a democratic society, in the interests of national security, territorial disorder or crime, for the protection of health or morals, for the protection of the reputation or rights of others, for preventing the disclosure of information received in confidence, or for maintaining the authority and impartiality of the judiciary.

Article 10 guarantees the absolute right of journalists to “to receive and impart information and ideas without interference by public authority”. Ironically Grieve was always very keen on this right being incorporated into UK law, it ultimately allows people to take their case to the European Court of Human Rights…

The 0.5% growth rate – driven greatly by construction growth – comes after a 0.2% contraction in the second quarter of the year, and marks the strongest month of growth since January. 0.3% growth is three times higher than predicted – expect more economic predictions to be defied over the coming months…

Irish Prime Minister Leo Varadkar voiced what Brexiteers in the UK have been saying for a while. If the UK doesn’t leave the EU on 31st October, it’s unlikely to leave at all.

“If it comes to a request for an extension, I think the vast majority of countries around the table would prefer that there not be an extension. We would like to see this dealt with. If the UK is leaving it should leave on 31st October.”

Varadkar confirming that extension is extinction. It’s 31st October do or die for Brexit…

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