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The Australia-India market has experienced rapid growth over the last three years, prompting Australia to lobby for more direct services. Visitor arrivals from India are up 50% since mid-2013, and total passenger traffic between the two countries is up approximately 30%.

Air India launched services to Melbourne and Sydney in 2013 but the Australia-India market is still dominated by Southeast Asian flag carriers. Singapore Airlines has been able to maintain a leading 41% share of the market. Malaysia Airlines also still carries more Australia-India passengers than Air India.

Attracting more nonstop flights from Air India, or the possible launch of nonstop flights to India by Australian carriers, will not be easy despite growing demand. Southeast Asia’s network airlines have a competitive advantage as they serve several gateways in both Australia and India. Southeast Asia’s growing medium/long haul LCCs have also started to compete in the Australia-India market and are well positioned to take a large share of the anticipated growth.

Aviation has yet to define India’s role in the trans-Pacific growth story. Geography allows connections from North America to India via Europe, the Gulf and – more quietly – Northeast Asia. Northeast Asian airlines have a theoretical advantage linking India with the North American west coast. The challenge they face is fitting a square peg into a round hole.

The presence of Northeast Asian airlines is large in North America but small in India, while Southeast Asian airlines are small in North America but large in India. Cathay Pacific, and to a lesser extent All Nippon Airways, are in the strategic sweet spot, relatively. Growing China-India relations could result in Chinese airlines playing a larger role in this market. The different transit regions available mean that there is competition between partnerships and joint ventures. These pressures could grow as the Indian market continues expanding.