Very well said and I really don’t think this is how people are thinking. I drove past the Beacon Rock trailhead in the gorge a couple days ago and guess what? Just overflowing with cars. So there’s a bunch of people huffing and puffing past each other on a super narrow path. “I’m outside so this is much safer than walking past someone in the Zupan’s aisle”.

Snow showers, mainly after 11am. Temperature falling to around 25 by 5pm. Breezy, with a west wind around 23 mph, with gusts as high as 32 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Total daytime snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible.

Tonight

Snow showers, mainly before 11pm. Low around 16. West wind 15 to 18 mph, with gusts as high as 26 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible.

Tuesday

Snow showers. High near 25. Southwest wind 13 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 21 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible.

Snow showers, mainly after 11am. Temperature falling to around 25 by 5pm. Breezy, with a west wind around 23 mph, with gusts as high as 32 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Total daytime snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible.

Tonight

Snow showers, mainly before 11pm. Low around 16. West wind 15 to 18 mph, with gusts as high as 26 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible.

Tuesday

Snow showers. High near 25. Southwest wind 13 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 21 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible.

Losing patience with bachy's uphill policy. Parking is the big issue. Will start ignoring their decisions soon. There's no way they're able to open this season. And even if they do and want to keep the mountain locked down for now, they can let people park on the side of parking lot by the nordic center so that hey can access other spaces via the common corridor (when the lot is naturally clear).

I'm thinking the place would be wall to wall with families wanting to get the kids outside. Load every other chair. Or only two to a chair. But they could probably figure away to keep the social distance thing in effect. Maybe do an even odd pass number thing. You have a pass ending in an even number you ski the mornings, odd the afternoons. There are options!

"We don't beat the reaper by living longer, we beat the reaper by living well and living fully." - Randy Pausch

I'm thinking the place would be wall to wall with families wanting to get the kids outside. Load every other chair. Or only two to a chair. But they could probably figure away to keep the social distance thing in effect. Maybe do an even odd pass number thing. You have a pass ending in an even number you ski the mornings, odd the afternoons. There are options!

Grocery stores are struggling with how to manage social distancing, and they are an essential sector. Bachy provides recreational services - do you think they can figure it out ... in a way where their lawyers and insurance will be able to indemnify them against malfeasance claims? All public venues are going to have to figure this out when public health experts say we can talk about easing social controls.

Wuhan is finally opening its gates and businesses- after two full months of lockdown. Now, Oregon hasn’t gotten that bad yet but NYC will be there in a week. In this time of uncertainty... the prudent strategy is to wait.

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"Strapping myself to a sitski built with 30lb of metal and fibreglass then trying to water ski in it sounds like a stupid idea to me.

Grocery stores are struggling with how to manage social distancing, and they are an essential sector. Bachy provides recreational services - do you think they can figure it out ... in a way where their lawyers and insurance will be able to indemnify them against malfeasance claims? All public venues are going to have to figure this out when public health experts say we can talk about easing social controls.

Wuhan is finally opening its gates and businesses- after two full months of lockdown. Now, Oregon hasn’t gotten that bad yet but NYC will be there in a week. In this time of uncertainty... the prudent strategy is to wait.

This is what I was thinking. People will be too close somewhere. This wont be over by the end of April. So I will be forced to go if they reopen and possibly get sick or lose my money because Powdr Corp cares more about money than their guests

This is what I was thinking. People will be too close somewhere. This wont be over by the end of April. So I will be forced to go if they reopen and possibly get sick or lose my money because Powdr Corp cares more about money than their guests

I will be very surprised if Bachelor or any other investor-owner ski resort will be opening before MLB, MLS, or some other much larger non-exclusive entertainment institution figures out how to do it, and insure it, based on whatever social exposure guidelines are given by US government on social controls.

Once we clear the current wildfire-like exponential outbreak phase, then we are in the maintenance phase trying to keep from generating new “spot fire” outbreaks.

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"Strapping myself to a sitski built with 30lb of metal and fibreglass then trying to water ski in it sounds like a stupid idea to me.

I will be very surprised if Bachelor or any other investor-owner ski resort will be opening before MLB, MLS, or some other much larger non-exclusive entertainment institution figures out how to do it, and insure it, based on whatever social exposure guidelines are given by US government on social controls.

Once we clear the current wildfire-like exponential outbreak phase, then we are in the maintenance phase trying to keep from generating new “spot fire” outbreaks.

Agreed. It's really unlikely that Bachy could responsibly re-open, and I do think that Bachy's management will do what is responsible. Seems like the isolation measures we have taken here were implemented early enough that there is a chance that we have avoided a significant outbreak in Bend, but we would need to maintain this isolation for a while if that's the case. If Bachy is holding out like this because it's best for their employees (keeps them employed) then I wish they would communicate that. I don't think this is a Powdr thing - aren't all of their other resorts shut down for the season?

Seems like the isolation measures we have taken here were implemented early enough that there is a chance that we have avoided a significant outbreak in Bend, but we would need to maintain this isolation for a while if that's the case.

*If that is true that Bend has averted disaster,* (and we won’t know for 3+ weeks really because social controls only went into effect less than a week ago, it takes 5-6 days to carry the virus before symptoms start, it can take another week of being sick before severe symptoms develop, and severe symptoms can come extremely suddenly like you got better and the next day you can’t breathe/might die, oh yeah and once tests are ordered it’s about a 5 day wait time in Oregon right now for results) a few things will be needed to maintain that position:

-Avoiding re-importation of new cases
-Aggressive low-latency testing of population (the kind where you get same day results not next week results) and aggressive contact tracing of positive confirmations

If you can’t get the above, and more medical supplies, you can’t ease social controls on places with high gathering counts.

This is why Gavin Newsom in CA is saying it’s gonna be at least May before things can ease. They are on a much worse numerical path down there than up here, but also “how bad this really is” is really relative to your local/regional medical resources. We have 688 total ventilators in the entire state of OR as of 2 weeks ago. So I stand by my pessimism about when businesses that gather large groups can re open.

Cross your fingers and let’s see how this thing plays out over the next 3-4 weeks. Confirmed cases in OR jumped to 25% daily increase yesterday, which could indicate exponential growth, or it could indicate that the shitty test infrastructure is finally getting data from samples collected a week ago, too early to tell.

Stay near your home!

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"Strapping myself to a sitski built with 30lb of metal and fibreglass then trying to water ski in it sounds like a stupid idea to me.

Up here in WA, the test turnaround is < 3 days - I know this because I have a neighbor whose wife developed symptoms over the weekend, was tested on Sunday and got a confirmed negative result on Tuesday. And not even all of our testing facilities were operating at their maximum load (there just weren't that many tests coming in to be performed).

The typical incubation time is 5-10 days, but can be up to two weeks. Once you're symptomatic, it's roughly another 5-10 days, but could be up to two weeks, until you're considered recovered. Your symptoms can escalate quite quickly once you're symptomatic but some folks never develop any symptoms.

We're way past the point of being able to leverage effective testing & tracing, like Singapore and South Korea did. Extreme social distancing is our best option and if it doesn't work, expect a full Wuhan-style lockdown.