Networks, local TV &#8211; everyone's braced for a rough ride in '09

From staff cuts at local news stations to budget slashings at global media outlets, 2008 was a sobering year for television. And 2009 is going to look different because of it.

One of the most industry-rattling network shifts won't happen for a few months, but the fact that it is happening at all tells you a lot about what's in store for your entire TV year.

In late summer, NBC will launch a new 10 p.m. nightly talk and variety show hosted by “Tonight Show” guy Jay Leno, who is handing the late-night reins to Conan O'Brien in June whether he wants to or not. This means that NBC will have five fewer hours a week in which to bring you original prime-time programming, which is exactly the way NBC wants it.

On the TV Week Web site, a network executive speculated that NBC now spends about $150 million per season programming scripted shows for the problematic 10 p.m. slot, where NBC has not launched a hit since 2005's “Medium.” Leno's show could cost as little as $80 million to produce, so even if Jay discovers that he can't compete with “CSI: Miami” or “Without a Trace” either, the network looks to make money.

And in 2009, the networks are going to be even more interested in money than usual, because like almost everyone else, they will have less of it.

When all the beans are counted, advertising spending on the networks could be down by more than 3 percent in 2008. Some forecasters predict the same drop in 2009. Meanwhile, DVR viewing is messing with the Nielsen ratings, and viewers are defecting to cable, where lower ratings expectations and shorter TV seasons make for a more forgiving economic climate.

In response to these challenges, NBC-Universal cut about 500 jobs in the company's television, film and theme-park divisions last year. There have also been budget cuts at the 20th Century Fox and ABC studios, where shows like “24,” “Lost,” and “Grey's Anatomy” will be feeling the burn.

Although viewership and ratings are up at many cable networks, they're not safe, either. Viacom, the media giant behind MTV and Nickelodeon, cut more than 800 jobs late last year. And the NBC-Universal cuts could impact such cable properties as Bravo and the Sci-Fi Channel.

So in 2009, cash-strapped networks will be developing fewer new shows and spending less money on the shows they already have. You will probably see more reality shows and perhaps repurposed cable shows like “Dexter” and “Monk.” And some of your old favorites will likely have less money to spend on guest stars, music and location shoots.

And on the nonfiction side of things, reality really bites.

Last year, CNN cut its entire science, technology and environment news staff. The news divisions at CBS, ABC and NBC took their hits, too. And last month, local NBC outlet KNSD/Channel 39 (Cable 7) cut three local-news programs and laid off approximately 12 employees.

A recent article in the Media Life online magazine predicted that ad spending with local media outlets – including television, radio and newspapers – could drop by more than 7 percent in 2009, compared with a 3 percent decline in national media buys. So, while the KNSD cuts were the latest and most high-profile local reaction to the economic climate, they aren't likely to be the last.

“All of our revenue comes from advertising, so if there is less revenue, we have to do something,” KNSD news director Greg Dawson said after the station's layoffs were announced. “We've done what we hope will prepare us for getting through this.”