A new model of the Earth's climate suggests that human-made carbon dioxide emissions may prevent the onset of the next ice age.

Based on geological history, the Earth would be expected to enter a new ice age in 10,000 to 100,000 years.

Researchers say even small changes in carbon dioxide levels right now could prevent this from happening.

They tell the journal Nature this may not be good news as the planet could change in ways that are unprecedented.

Man made change

The scientists say that over the past 400,000 years, sea temperature and ice coverage have been more variable than before.

This variation is a sign of the climate changing from one state to another, and signals the coming of an ice age.

Professor Thomas Crowley who developed the new model at Edinburgh University, UK, says this natural event might be postponed or even prevented by human-induced changes - especially the CO2 emissions from industrial processes.

"In the last 100,000 years, global CO2 levels increased by around 1.5 parts per million - but now we put out this much every year. The natural process is 100,000 times slower than the way humankind is changing CO2 levels," he says.

Averting catastrophe

The researchers looked at variations in oxygen levels in the shells of tiny sea creatures found in samples taken from the world's ocean beds. When combined with data on past sea levels, these give an estimate of global temperatures and sea-ice cover for the past three million years.

Professor Crowley warns against seeing increases in carbon dioxide levels as a good thing and adds that we might end up with a planet completely different from anything we've ever known.

"It doesn't mean we've averted catastrophe. A rise of just three to five degrees will give us temperatures unheard of for 50 million years - but at that time the world was a different place, with no ice caps.

"This time round, we are raising the temperature at such a rate that we may create a different world, a non-glacial atmosphere with polar ice sheets."

Rapid increases in global temperatures may not initiate immediate rapid polar ice melting, say the scientists; and there is no past geological evidence to indicate how a polar ice cap might behave if sitting on a warmer world.

Story from BBC NEWS:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/go/pr/fr/-/1/hi/sci/tech/7722300.stm

Published: 2008/11/14 12:48:23 GMT

southerncross

11-16-2008, 10:03 AM

What does this say about the Co2 Lag picked up recently?

BuilderBob

11-16-2008, 10:28 AM

The "NEW" GISStemp global temperature reports for October show a hotspot in the Canadian Arctic. Prepare for a large melt down of Arctic ice. :eek:

hillsidedigger

11-16-2008, 09:54 PM

A next ice-age is many centuries or even millenia into the future.

The worst effects of human caused alteration of the world's atmosphere will be within the next few decades.

After that (the next few decades), with very few humans surviving and with almost no forests left to cut and nothing left to burn the world's atmosphere might return to it's natural cycles.

jason

11-16-2008, 10:22 PM

The "NEW" GISStemp global temperature reports for October show a hotspot in the Canadian Arctic. Prepare for a large melt down of Arctic ice. :eek:

"They are interesting because they are the fastest reproducing multi-celled animal on the planet and can double their numbers several times a day."

Malcolm

11-17-2008, 04:53 AM

Australia had some awsome storms last night 16/11/08
Cheque out the link Video-savage storms damage
www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24664920-601,00.html

BuilderBob

11-17-2008, 09:12 AM

Australia had some awsome storms last night 16/11/08
Cheque out the link Video-savage storms damage
www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24664920-601,00.html

Just had an email from my BIL who has a macadamia farm about 100 miles south west of Brisbane claiming it was the worst storm for 25 years.

Jishuku

11-17-2008, 10:03 AM

A next ice-age is many centuries or even millenia into the future.

What about the talk of a mini ice age starting sometime between 2010-2020? Would last something like 80 years or so. Had to do with the gulf stream slowing down and thereby cooling Europe.

that would also be a consequence of climate change.

but reading up on this before posting, what I found was inconclusive. Scientists don't seem to have a 100% answer if the gulf actually warms europe or not.

Kassy

11-17-2008, 01:13 PM

What does this say about the Co2 Lag picked up recently?

What lag?

Ought Six

11-17-2008, 05:30 PM

CO2 in well known to be a lagging indicator in the historical record, proving it is a symptom, not a cause of climatic warming.

Fiddlerdave

11-18-2008, 09:43 PM

CO2 in well known to be a lagging indicator in the historical record, proving it is a symptom, not a cause of climatic warming.Well known among Denialists. It is far from factual.

Kassy

11-19-2008, 09:55 AM

CO2 in well known to be a lagging indicator in the historical record, proving it is a symptom, not a cause of climatic warming.

Like it says in the original piece:
"In the last 100,000 years, global CO2 levels increased by around 1.5 parts per million - but now we put out this much every year. The natural process is 100,000 times slower than the way humankind is changing CO2 levels," he says.

That's how you turn it into a cause. :beer:

southerncross

11-23-2008, 09:49 AM

Well known among Denialists. It is far from factual.

It's as factual as anything the AGW Alarmist's have come up with Dave, it is recorded numerous times in their own research but is often hidden amongst befuddlement words such as WE BELIEVE , IT POINT'S TO WE CAN NOT DISCOUNT and other numerous disclaimers that admit the FACT that CO2 lags in the HISTORICAL record but still try to justify the need for more funding to examine it just a bit more. Just as a reminder Dave, Science is not based on Consensus it is based on FACTS, Scientifically proven facts at that. Even the IPCC cant argue with their own figure's (or can they?).

Temperatures:
- Global surface temperatures have increased only about 0.6°C in the last 100 years. (IPCC)
- Global temperature has averaged only 57°F in the last 100 years. (NOAA)
- The warmest year in the United States was 1934. (NASA)

Sea Level Rise:
- Global mean sea level has risen only about 6 inches in the last 100 years. (Based on tidal gauge data) (IPCC)
- Global mean sea level rise is in the range of 1.0 to 2.0 mm/yr. (Based on tidal gauge data) (IPCC)
- No significant acceleration in the rate of sea level rise during the 20th century has been detected. (IPCC)
- 20 feet of sea level rise would take 3048-6096 years. (Based on tidal gauge data) (IPCC)
- Sea level has only been monitored by satellite altimetry since 1992 with an uncertainty of 3-4 mm. (University of Colorado)

http://www.warmingscaretactics.com/Scientific_Facts.php

As for CO2, There is NO evidence that CO2 is the Cause of Global warming at present, None, Nada, Nothing. If there was don't you think that it would be front page news on every paper, newscast, or any other media stream? THERE IS NO FACTUAL EVIDENCE to back up the multitude of claims made, only OPINION.

Carbon Dioxide:
- Carbon Dioxide (CO2) is a minor greenhouse gas.
- Carbon Dioxide (CO2) levels in the atmosphere have risen by about 30% (280-370 ppmv) over the past 100 years. (IPCC)
- Ice core records show Carbon Dioxide (CO2) levels lag behind Temperature changes by 600-1000 years. (Source) (Source)
- Carbon Dioxide (CO2) did not end the last Ice Age. (Source)
- Carbon Dioxide (CO2) is only about 0.038% of the atmosphere. (NASA)
- Carbon Dioxide accounts for about 4.2-8.4% of the greenhouse effect. (Source)
- Humans can only claim responsibility for about 3.4% of carbon dioxide emitted to the atmosphere annually. (Source)
- Water Vapor + Clouds account for about 90-95% of the greenhouse effect. (Source) (NASA)
- U.S. Carbon Emissions Fell 1.3% in 2006 (Source)

"Consensus":
- Anthropogenic ("Man-Made") Global Warming is an unproven Theory (hypothesis).
- There is no 'Consensus' that Global Warming is"Man-Made". (Source)
- There is no 'Consensus' that Global Warming will cause Catastrophic Climate Change. (Source)
- Science is not determined by 'Consensus' but by the Scientific Method.

Ecology:
- U.S. Forest land area increased from 747 million acres in 1997 to 749 in 2002. (U.S. Forest Service)
- Since the 1950s, timber growth has consistently exceeded harvest. (U.S. Forest Service

http://www.warmingscaretactics.com/Scientific_Facts.php

No doubt there will be Opinions regarding the source of these cut and pastes but check out the sources used on this website if you are really interested in finding the actual FACTS for yourselves. For every Global warming report promoting AGW there is just as many refuting the premise Just one example.

I just don't understand the basis of AGW people , especially when the basis of their premise is the CO2 argument, on the one hand they extol the virtues of arguing against the production of CO2 by mankind, mind you they dont seem to have a problem doing it on a pc that produces on average 1000 pounds per yr of CO2 after production, that might cause the same value as a small car, add to that the ongoing use and add electricity to that. If they really cared they would just stop arguing that a gas that constitutes 0.038% of the atmosphere really matters.

Fiddlerdave

11-27-2008, 03:04 PM

Southerncross, your tired kitchen sink list of "scientists" has been debunked so many times it ridiculous.

But I am glad you are pleased to have the definitive clincher of the "theologians" on your side, who can doubt their expertise in these matters. :re: