Utah Jazz: History of No. 5 pick is boom or bust

If Jazz stay put, they're likely to land either a star or a complete flop.

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This is an archived article that was published on sltrib.com in 2014, and information in the article may be outdated. It is provided only for personal research purposes and may not be reprinted.

Charles Barkley. Dwyane Wade. Kevin Garnett. Kevin Love.

With the No. 5 pick of Thursday's NBA Draft, the Utah Jazz would love to add an All-Star or future Hall-Of-Fame prospect in the mode of the above names. History shows those are four of the best No. 5 picks in the past 30 years. Every team in this slot looks for that type of home run.

Jonathan Bender. Jon Koncak. Nikoloz Tskitishvili. Shelden Williams. You want busts in the fifth spot? Those are the kind of guys the Jazz would like to avoid. Those four came into the league with great fanfare. All of them flopped. Miserably.

History shows the No. 5 spot is one of the great polarizing positions of the NBA Draft, the ultimate boom-or-bust pick. There is very little middle ground, through 30 years of data. In most cases, either the pick becomes one of the better players in the NBA, or a disappointment the team that selected him has to explain to its fans.

In this draft, that adds a certain amount of alarm for the Jazz. They know the numbers, they know the statistics. They realize they are in the fifth spot in a draft considered to have four franchise-changers. That means Utah has had quite a bit of work to do over the past six weeks.

"We have a sense of urgency with this pick," said Jazz VP of Player Personnel Walt Perrin. "We know that we have to get this right."

Historically, the pick has yielded a ton of talent. You see the names at the top of the story. You can add Scottie Pippen, Mitch Richmond and Ray Allen as Hall-Of-Fame talents. You can look at Vince Carter, who was a consistent All-Star in his prime. Devin Harris, Jason Richardson and Raymond Felton became solid pros. Sacramento's DeMarcus Cousins  if he ever gets his head on straight  could be an all-star for the next decade, and has the talent to someday be the best big man in the league.

In many cases, teams were fortunate to have great players land at their feet. Cousins had No. 1 pick talent, but second-round attitude, so he dropped a few spots. In 2003, Detroit gambled and lost on Darko Milicic with the No. 2 pick, causing the ripple effect that saw Wade slide to his fifth spot. Miami happily plucked him off the board and won an NBA title with him three years later.

In the fabled 1984 draft, everyone loved Barkley's talent. Nobody loved his 270 pounds packed in a 6-foot-4 frame. What they didn't know was that he had a 40-inch vertical leap, a nasty temperament and a vast set of skills that allowed him to be one of the top power forwards ever.

"Sometimes, picking fifth, teams have guys that fall right into their laps," NBA and college basketball analyst Fran Fraschilla said. "Sometimes the draft has a few obvious picks, and great players fall for whatever reason."

For all of the positives of the No. 5 pick, there are big negatives as well. In 2006, Atlanta thought they had their big man of the future in Williams. He was so bad that when he married women's hoops star Candace Parker, the joke went that he wasn't even the best player in his own house. Brandon Roy  who would become a standout with Portland  went one pick later.

Everyone loved Garnett in 1995, and indeed he has become an all-time great. Four years later, the Toronto Raptors fell in love with Bender at No. 5, a Garnett clone physically who was also straight out of high school. He went on to average five points per game in his career.

"It's such a thin line," Fraschilla said. "The whole draft is a crapshoot. But when you have a top-five pick, the pressure to be right is enormous."

And a bunch of that pressure is on the Jazz, as are a bunch of pointed questions. Will they be able to trade up? Will they pick injured Kansas big man Joel Embiid, should he happen to slide? If not, who do they pick?

It makes for an entertaining week for those watching. And if history tells us much, there won't be much middle ground. In all likelihood, the Utah Jazz will either draft a star or a bust.

"I think Barkley was the best No. 5 pick ever," Perrin said. "What he was able to do in the league with that body type was amazing."

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