According to media reports, American commanders in Afghanistan are asking for 5-10,000Â troops above the 4,000Â approved for deployment and the 10,500-12,000 already requested–for a total ofÂ up to 26,000.Â 32,000 are currently in Afghanistan.Â Overshadowed by the elections and global financial crisis, thisÂ proposed major escalation is moving ahead with little debate.Â And it is not aÂ temporaryÂ “surge”; theÂ generals are seeking these new troop levels for the duration of the war, however many years that may involve.

Before weÂ make this move, aÂ weighing of pros and cons would appear to be in order.

The arguments for:

1.Â Fueled by $100 million per yearÂ raked off from the opium trade, the TalibanÂ have carried out some 30 percent more attacks than in 2007, and they have become activeÂ in the environs of Kabul.Â Boosting troopÂ numbers can help blunt this Taliban offensive and enableÂ American,Â International Security Assistance Force (ISAF), and Afghan government forces toÂ regain the initiative.Â Helicopters, surveillance drones,Â military police, and other specialized troops are sorely needed, American commanders say.

2.Â Â The Afghan army and police are too weak to handle the situation,Â while NATOÂ partners are reluctant to boost their commitments.Â SoÂ sending more U.S. troops looks likeÂ the only option.

3.Â Â Instability in Pakistan and the need to combat al Qaeda make itÂ essential to maintain a strong U.S. presence in the region.Â Â

Arguments against:

1.Â The United States and the world are going through the biggest financial crisis in 75 years, and we do not yet know how it will play out.Â Â Signs of an impendingÂ recessionÂ are everywhere.Â PrudenceÂ dictates that we refrain from making new investments ofÂ troops, equipment, and money untilÂ the uncertainty passes.

2.Â Every foreign soldier who enters Afghanistan provides one more incentive for Afghans to join the insurgency against the foreigners.Â The Afghans have a track record ofÂ driving out foreign occupiers.Â The presence of American and allied troopsÂ combating a religion-based insurgency (of course, also a narco-insurgency)Â in a Muslim country is a standing provocation to many Muslims worldwide, so fighting this warÂ loses good will andÂ givesÂ young Muslims a reason to join anti-American groups.Â

3.Â TheÂ real threat to the UnitedÂ States is al Qaeda, not the Taliban; and al Qaeda is in Pakistan, not Afghanistan.Â So we are fighting against the wrong enemy and in the wrongÂ country.Â We need to pressure the Pakistanis to root out al Qaeda.

4.Â Plenty of Afghans hate the Taliban.Â We could withdraw and let the two sides fight it out, perhaps lending air support to the anti-Taliban forces.Â Â In 2001 the Northern Alliance, with the assistance of the U.S. Air Force, swiftly defeated theÂ Taliban, who were much more dominant than they are now.Â Of course, this option accepts the possibility of the resurgence of warlords and the decline of liberal democracy in Afghanistan, though other outcomes could emerge.

So there are arguments on both sides.Â Even as one recognizes the power of the arguments against escalation, one must grant the validity of American generals’ desire to obtain the troops needed to fight the war as it is presently conceived.Â Â

The futureÂ surely holds surprises.Â Perhaps the current efforts by theÂ Saudis and others to broker a settlement betweenÂ the Afghan Government and the Taliban will work.Â Perhaps theÂ global financial crisis will lead to a sharp drop-off in demand for opium, thereby cutting the Taliban’s revenue and forcing them to curtail operations.Â Â Or the Government of Afghanistan, riddled with corruption, may implode, leaving the U.S. and its allies defendingÂ the non-Taliban parts of the country as they waver between warlordism and chaos.Â

SoÂ uncertainty about the future ofÂ Afghanistan’s politicalÂ system runs parallel to uncertainty about the global financial crisis and its economic consequences.Â On balance, and in such circumstances, it seems wise to refrain fromÂ escalation, at a minimum until we know better what to expect.Â Â

Afghanistan is on the other side of the world from the United States, and its culture and history may destine it to a very different fate than we might wish.Â The arguments forÂ freezing plans to escalate in reality appear to constitute a telling case forÂ withdrawal.Â

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