Mark Zuckerberg will win the 2020 USA presidential elections.

splorridge
said “I find it mildly amusing that if we compare this prediction to your other one: http://predictionbook.com/predictions/180882, it looks like the collective wisdom of predictionbook says that Zuckerberg has a ~91% chance of winning if he runs.”
on 2017-01-16

penten
said “@splorridge at least for Ben Doherty and themusicgod1 who predicted both, they put it at about half the chance of him running, which in a roughly two party state, does make some sense as an initial prediction”
on 2017-01-16

splorridge
said “If we assume that P(winning election given nomination) is approximately 0.5 (due to two party system) then for your logic to make sense we’d have to have P(winning party nomination given running) approximately equal to 1, which is far too large.”
on 2017-01-18