Does the 2011 hurricane season still have one more trick up its sleeve? A system may be brewing in the Atlantic just in time for the Thanksgiving Day holiday, models show.

The last time we had a Thanksgiving storm was in 2005, when Tropical Storm Delta formed far out into the Atlantic, hit the Canary Islands, and then dissipated over Morocco.

That’s typical of late-season storms — they tend to spin up in the Central Atlantic and may meander for a few days before getting picked up by a trough and being pushed off to the north and east.

Thursday’s GFS forecasting model predicts a vigorous low pressure system will form just east of the Antilles in the western Atlantic and then moving north as it develops. The model predicts that the system, which would be named Tammy, may get as far as 60W but will turn to the northeast and out to sea well east of Bermuda.

Satellite images show the moisture is already out there, waiting for a spark to turn it into a tropical or subtropical system. That could come from an upper level low east-northeast of Antigua.

“The GFS is the most aggressive model with this tropical storm, forecasting the system to hang around the Central Atlantic right through much of next week and peaking near hurricane strength on Thanksgiving Day,” says Rob Lightbown of Crown Weather Services.

If the model is right, we’re likely to end the season with 19 named storms, near the top of some of the pre-season forecasts.

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Winds will whip up again in Palm Beach over the weekend, but it will have nothing to do with tropical weather.

The cold front that was working its way down the Florida peninsula Thursday is expected to stall over the Keys, while high pressure builds in to the north. That will once again set up the pressure gradient that gave the area gusty winds when similar scenarios developed in October.

We may get a few fast-moving showers out of it as well. High temperatures will be near 80 right through Thanksgiving Day, which is about average for this time of the year.

About the Author

John Nelander is a freelance writer, book editor and publisher in West Palm Beach. Weather Matters features news and observations about the weather with a focus on what's happening in South Florida. The blog also looks at the latest studies on climate change as well as what's happening in the weather forecasting biz. His website is www.pbeditorialservices.com.