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Correction: A previous version of this story stated that the Houston Texans had a 2-11 record last year. It was 2-14.

In one respect, the Denver Broncos and the Seattle Seahawks, who are squaring off in the Super Bowl this Sunday, performed evenly during the regular season. Both won 13 games and lost three. However, one of them has been far better for gamblers. A football fan who bet even amounts on the Seahawks before each of its games would have earned an average return of 13.7%. One who bet on the Broncos would have made 4.6%. That may hold the key to betting on the big game.

Go with the Broncos, says Matt Robinson, a portfolio analyst at Los Angeles-based Analytic Investors, which manages nearly $9 billion in mostly institutional money. The firm says its system, developed as a hobby and based on a measure it calls NFL Alpha, has panned out in nine of the past 10 Super Bowls. That includes last year, when Barron's noted that the math favored the underdog Baltimore Ravens, who went on to beat the San Francisco 49ers 34-31. The Super Bowl system also offers some takeaways for stockpickers.

On Wall Street, alpha refers to the excess return a portfolio secures, beyond what math models say it should earn based on the risk it takes. Money managers who keep risk in check while producing outsize returns generate heaps of alpha, and win acclaim among investors. Similarly, NFL Alpha measures how well teams beat expectations. To calculate it, the sports enthusiasts at Analytic Investors track how "moneyline" bets on various teams pay off during the regular season.

For the uninitiated, sports bets generally involve oddsmakers adjusting the bet terms to put underdogs on equal footing with favorites. One way to do that is to use a point spread. For example, an underdog can lose by three points and still pay off, provided the spread was four points. Another way to try to even the odds is through a moneyline, which involves varying the payout. For example, winning a $100 bet on a favorite might pay only $70, but winning the same bet on an underdog might pay $130.

The top-performing teams aren't always the top payers. This past season, the Indianapolis Colts, which won 11 games and lost five, returned a league-leading 51.8% for gamblers who ventured even amounts on all games. The Houston Texans were the worst performers in both senses, with a 2-14 record and an 82.9% loss for bettors. Perhaps the Jacksonville Jaguars aren't thrilled with their 4-12 season, but they paid 4.2% for bettors, nearly as much as the Broncos (13-3, recall). Why? Because the Jaguars were expected to do poorly, and the Broncos were expected to do well.

Seattle's Russell Wilson

The Seahawks, then, are the higher-alpha Super Bowl team this year. That means bettors should take the Broncos, which were recently two-point favorites in Las Vegas, says Robinson. The reason: All that alpha tends to win a team too much popularity among bettors. Odds shift in response. Past winners become overpriced. Analytic Investors has found that NFL Alphas tend to revert toward the mean following the regular season.

"Our football analysis favors the mundane, less-hyped teams," says Robinson. "Denver met high expectations during the regular season but was relatively unsurprising compared with Seattle."