GBP/USD Weekly Outlook

Despite dropping to 1.5392, GBP/USD staged a strong rebound from there and the break of 1.5577 minor resistance then mixed up the near term outlook again. Initial bias is neutral this week. On the upside, break of 1.5721 minor resistance will firstly indicate completion of fall from 1.5777. More importantly, it will signal that rebound from 1.5268 is resuming for another high above 1.5777. In such case, rebound from 1.5268 would likely test cluster resistance level at 1.5901/6 (61.8% retracement of 1.6300 to 1.5268 at 1.5906 and 100% projection of 1.5268 to 1.5777 from 1.5392 at 1.5901) before completion. On the downside, though, below 1.5392 will extend the fall from 1.5777 to retest 1.5268 instead.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3503 (2009 low) are treated as consolidations to long term down trend from 2.1161, no change in this view. Such consolidation could be in form of a triangle that's completed at 1.6300 but this is not supported by a break of 1.5234 support yet. Hence, outlook remains neutral. On the downside, break of 1.5234 will add much credence to the case of long term down trend resumption and should at least target a test on 1.3503/4229 support zone. Though, break of 1.6300 will bring further rally to 1.6476 and above to extend the consolidation pattern.

In the longer term picture, the corrective nature of the multi-decade advance from 1.0463 (85 low) to 2.1161 as well as the impulsive nature of the fall from there suggests that GBP/USD is now in an early stage of a long term down trend. Another low below 1.3503 is anticipated after consolidation from there is confirmed to be completed.

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