Tuesday, December 9, 2008

Today is the first of two matchdays which are the last of the group stage. Most of us are hoping for a Bordeaux win coupled with Chelsea failing to secure all three points in Group A. Autoglass, of course, is not. If that scenario happens, Chelsea would drop to the UEFA Cup.

Group breakdowns, matches and selected lineups after the jump.Group AChelsea-CFR Cluj (ESPN 2)Roma-BordeauxAs stated above, Chelsea need all three points at home to secure passage to the knockout round. Bordeaux will not get an easy game at Roma, however, as Roma could still drop to the UEFA Cup with a loss and Chelsea win or, depending in the result, draw.

Group BPanathinaikos-AnorthosisWerder Bremen-Inter MilanThe game to watch is the one between the Greeks and the Cypriots. Contrary to a belief held by some, this is not a tilt with political undertones, as Anorthosis reside in the Greek-backed half of Cyprus. Still, a spirited match will be expected between the two as a place in the knock outs is at stake. Panathinaikos need just a draw, while Anorthosis need the unlikely away win. In the other match, Inter are through, but still need points to secure first place. Werder could still make the UEFA Cup with a convincing win coupled with a Anorthosis loss.

Group CBarcelona-Shakhtar DonetskFC Basle-Sporting LisbonBarcelona are through as group winners, while Shakhtar will go through with a win and Sporting loss. Don't count on it. Basle are playing out the string, already eliminated from moving on in Europe.

Group DOlympique Marseille-Atletico MadridPSV Eindhoven-LiverpoolAtletico and Liverpool are vying for first in the group, both on 11 points at this time. Atletico have a single goal advantage. L'OM and PSV are similarly on equal points at the bottom and cannot move on in the competition. L'OM have the decided advantage of a five better goal differential for a UEFA Cup slot, but need to equal PSV's result today to make sure of going through.

From wikipedia: Tiebreak rules in the group stage 1. higher number of points obtained in the group matches played among the teams in question; 2. superior goal difference from the group matches played among the teams in question; 3. higher number of goals scored away from home in the group matches played among the teams in question; 4. superior goal difference from all group matches played; 5. higher number of goals scored in all group matches played; 6. higher number of coefficient points accumulated by the club in question, as well as its association, over the previous five seasons.(I think I got it all correct)

Indeed. Though he is at his best when he stays out wide and tries to beat people, lately it seems he has been cutting inside a lot more. He isn't a goal scorer, hes a crosser; I chalk that up to bad coaching.

Plus he looks like he should be tying someone to train tracks in a Bullwinkle cartoon or something.

Lucas is worthless, so if he could go ahead and punch one of these Dutch polesmokers in the cunt that would be fantastic. It's like there are 10 Ronaldos out there rolling around like they're on fucking fire.

Har de har har har. Believing Soccernet both Babel and Keane are gone in three weeks, which leaves Liverpool with Kuyt an Ngog as their only strikers. Yeah, thats exactly whats going to happen. Whatever, they'll forget about that as soon as they start reporting that Villa going to City as 'news'. Oh wait that happened this morning.

I just think there is a high probability of something if not drastic than notable happening at Anfield in January. It might not be player moves. The most intriguing thing to me right now is the $75M debt that Gillett has that was secured by his interest in LFC.

There is additional debt that has to be covered, extended or refinanced. H&G might have everything under control, but if that were the case, Gillett wouldn't need to be rounding up people to help him purchase his own $75M debt.

PR: I will say it's all a huge worry, and that there is a very real chance that things get screwed up to Leeds-esque proportions, but I just don't see it getting that far. It will be rectified somehow just before the whole thing implodes. I don't see them sinking.

Ideally they have to sell it for half of what they paid. So they both get fucked and someone else gets a cut rate deal and can actually afford a stadium. I think the Barcelona style ownership is going to gain a lot of steam pretty soon.

I am the world's biggest proponent* of community-owned sports franchises. And I would applaud such a move for LFC. But I see ZERO chance of that organizing and becoming viable by January 25, the date when most of the shit hits the fan for H&G.

I'm guessing that if LFC default on loans, then the two banks (Wachovia and RBS) would take possession of the club.

My guess is that they would rather not own the club and have to run it. And would also guess that they have already spoken to people who might be potential buyers so that a transaction could take place shortly thereafter any takeover by the bank.

How can the community-ownership deal be in place where there isn't even a price for the club. How would they know if they have enough money?

I also imagine that many people who might have pledge to buy a share back in, oh, the summer, might not have that same money lying around right now.

My guess is an 80% chance the H%G stay in charge but with some player sales for cash (1 splashy) and some debt refinancing that keep this speculation of financial doom lingering over the club for another 6 months. A 20% chance the club changes ownership.

If you buy that debt (and the company holding it says it plans to have a sale complete sometime this month) one of two things happens:

A) Gillett pays the $75M due on January 25th. Then you get $75M for your troubles.

B) Gillett fails to come up with the $75M. You take over his half of LFC.

So because there is some non-zero chance that Gillett doesn't pony up the dough, the expected value of that note is greater than $75, meaning if you buy the note you are going to have to pay more than $75M; and your risk is that you only make $75M when Gillett pays you back.

Your reward for making the bet is that, if he doesn't come up with the money, for something substantially less than the, oh suppose, £300M that half of LFC is worth, you get half of LFC.

I would put the chance of Share LFC buying this debt at approximately 0.

@PR: thank you for that enlightened comment. I began reading it, but soon the words began sounding like the parents from Peanuts.

Were there any surprises in who advanced to the knockout CL rounds? Jesus, it's the same damn teams every year. At least next year Arsenal won't be there. (Sniffle.) For real, though, isn't it gonna shape up the same way as well? The final eight will end up something like this - depending on the match-ups, of course - Juve, Barca, ManPoo, Liverpool, Bayern, Chelsea, Real/Inter, Gunners. Surprise, surprise.

Late notice I know, and only good for people with FSC willing to watch a show I normally don't, but FSC is showing the "Fan Zone" of Everton-Villa, which should be good for 3 or 4 complete and total melt-downs by fans in the about 15 minutes or so...