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Monday, August 4, 2014

Analyzing The MLB Trades At The Deadline

The non-waiver wire trade deadline has come and gone, and there were a litany of players that have switched teams. Let's now analyze those trades and see how well each team did at the deadline. Truthfully, we will never know how well trades have turned out until we look back on this day in 2024 (or even later), but that won't stop us from playing Monday Morning Quarterback anyways!

ANALYSIS
The Red Sox were extremely busy before the trade deadline blowing up their entire rotation (plus Andrew Miller) and playing for next year. While the AL East is decently wide open, I think the Red Sox smartly realized it wasn't worth it to try and make a push, and decided to play for 2015. Jon Lester is a free agent by the end of the year, so the Oakland A's rented him for the final few months, and in exchange, the Red Sox received All-Star Yoenis Cespedes, who is under contract both this year and next year. I believe that Lester will sign with the Red Sox this offseason, which means Boston gets Lester AND Cespedes in a year which they will compete. The Sox also tighten up their outfield with Allen Craig, whose power is sure to come once he leaves Busch Stadium and calls Fenway home.

Not only do the Red Sox bolster their offense for next year, but also their pitching in the future. John Lackey and Jake Peavy are worthy players, but they're expendable as well. They're worthless to the Red Sox, and Boston can get pitchers who are just as good, if not better, than either Peavy or Lackey this winter. By shipping them away, they receive a great back end of the rotation guy in Joe Kelly, and a top pitching prospect in Edwin Escobar. To add to their pitching depth, they traded away failed starter Andrew Miller to the Baltimore Orioles in exchange for Edwardo Rodriguez, a player who is surely going to be stable for the Boston rotation in a few years.

The Boston Red Sox solidified their offense and added pitching depth for the future, and is likely to have a strong rotation come Opening Day thanks to moves the team will make in the off season. When you're not playing for this year, it's easy to win the trade deadline.

ANALYSIS
I have no problem with the Indians trading away Cabrera, as he's a mediocre shortstop who is expensive and on the last year on his contract. Plus, The Tribe has prospect Francisco Lindor waiting in the wings. My issue I have with this trade is that I don't think the Indians got enough in return. While the Indians claim they're high on Walters, the infielder is not projected to be anything more than a back up or a mediocre starter. But all that being said, I have absolutely no idea what the market for Cabrera was like. The Orioles, Yankees, and A's are all teams who were buyers at the deadline and could use an infielder, and theoretically all could have offered the Indians something better, but it's possible that Walters was the best offer the Indians actually received. If that was the case, then the Indians get an A, because it's better to get something from Cabrera if he's not going to be on the team next year than nothing at all.

James Ramsey on the other hand is the type of prospect who is expected to start and has the potential to become something better. The Indians had no interest in retaining Masterson from here on out (nor should they) and they are receiving a valuable trade piece going forward.

DETROIT TIGERSGRADE: A

Key Additions
- RHP David Price
- RHP Joakim Soria

Key Loses
- OF Austin Jackson
- LHP Drew Smyly
- RHP Corey Knebel

ANALYSIS
The Detroit Tigers are going to make it to the playoffs, and now I think they have to be the front runners to win the A.L. pennant. In order to sure up their bullpen with closer Joe Nathan being pretty terrible, they traded bullpen prospects for Joakim Soria. You can always, always, always find bullpen guys for your future, so Knebel and others relievers the Tigers traded away to the Rangers was absolutely nothing to them, and in return, they get an elite 8th inning guy (because manager Brad Ausmus is dumb and refuses to demote Nathan).

Then, at the trade deadline, the Tigers trade away more useless parts to get former Cy Young winner David Price. Drew Smyly is a pile of garbage compared to David Price, and while Austin Jackson is good, he's easily worth moving on from to get Price. The Tigers currently have an outfield of J.D. Martinez, Rajaj Davis, and Torii Hunter which is above average, and Jackson is currently having a bad offensive season. Even if Jackson was above average, he'll be too costly once his contract ends this year. The Tigers were most likely going to move on from Jackson by year's end anyways, so it was nothing for them to ship him off in order to get a stud pitcher. And David Price is a stud pitcher.

ANALYSIS
Trading away former closer and terrible relief pitcher Ernesto Frieri to the Pirates for competent reliever Jason Grilli was a great trade for the Halos. Their trade for Huston Street though? Not so much. While the Angels did receive an elite closer, and you do need an elite closer to win in the playoffs, they give up a King's Ransom to get it. I guess if you're the Angels you don't need prospects so much because you can just pay to get players like Josh Hamilton and Albert Pujols, but the Padres must have been jumping for joy after finally trading away Street.

ANALYSIS
The Yankees should get a lot of credit for bolstering their roster with absolutely nobody in their farm system or on their 25 man roster to be able to give to teams. However, the Yankees do have something nobody else has, and that's MONEY! McCarthy, Prado, Drew, and Capuano were all too expensive for their former teams to keep on their roster, so the Yankees collected them all. The one "trade bait" they did have, the terrible Yangervis Solarte, they were able to flip for a man who actually deserves to be on a major league roster- Chase Headley. I think all of this will be for naught because this average Yankees team is too depleted to make a playoff push, but I give a lot of credit to GM Brian Cashman for being able to patch the holes the way he has.

ANALYSIS
Let me just say for the record, that if the Oakland A's win the World Series this year, this grade moves up to an A+. Even if they win the pennant, it will still probably be a win for the Athletics as Billy Beane has put together some incredible regular season teams, yet has floundered in the playoffs. I don't think anyone should fault Billy Beane for trying, but I am not confident these major trades will work out. They rarely do for teams that have made them in the past.

I like the Jeff Samardzija trade a lot more because Samardzija is under contract for both this year AND next year, and if the A's are out of the race next year, they can then flip Samardzija and get a great haul in return. Plus, the A's received Jason Hammel in the deal who put up numbers just as good as Samardzija on the Cubs. The A's trade with the Red Sox I don't like as much. For starters, Jon Lester is a free agent at the end of this season, and he's not going to end up with the A's after this year while Yoenis Cespedes is under contract for both this year and next year. Secondly, the A's offense, on paper, is pretty terrible without Cespedes. After Josh Donaldson and Brandon Moss, the A's don't have much. Now the platoon of Gomes and Fuld will probably equal the same production of Cespedes, but it doesn't look great on paper.

While the A's have revamped their rotation in preparation for the playoffs, I still think the Tigers rotation is better, and I think Oakland's rotation is only a touch better than the Angels rotation.

PHILADELPHIA PHILLIESGRADE: w/e

Key Additions
N/A

Key Loses
N/A

ANALYSIS
The Phillies have been heavily, heavily criticized for not trading away any of their players, but I don't know how many of their players they could have traded. Chase Utley is an amazing trade piece, and probably the most realistic piece that could have been moved, but he's expensive. The only team that probably could have taken on that contract is the Yankees, but they couldn't have given the Phillies anything in return. Phillies fans may have wanted Ryan Howard to be moved, but he's both expensive AND terrible, and there was probably no market for him. There were plenty of teams who would have taken Jonathan Papelbon, but the closer has a right to veto any trade, and he refused to go to any place unless he's that new team's closer. The only team in contention that needed a closer was the Detroit Tigers, but they would always stick with Joe Nathan no matter what. Lastly, OF Marlon Byrd is decently cheap and a good piece for any contender, but he also has a right to refuse to be traded to certain teams, and I think the only team that really wanted him, the Seattle Mariners, was one of those refusal teams for Byrd. So it's easy to knock on Rueben Amaro Jr., but I want to know what offers he tried to make and what offers he received before I truly judge the Phillies at the deadline.

ANALYSIS
Closers are extremely fungible, and the Padres finally realized that when they traded away Huston Street. After years of refusing to part with him (Trevor Hoffman Syndrome?), they traded him to the L.A. Angels for a litany of good prospects. That trade was an "A" for them, but the trade that brought them down to a "B" was giving away Chase Headley for Solarte. I understand that Headley was a deck chair on the sinking Titanic that the Padres were not going to pay for in future years, but they should have gotten more from him than a terrible player. Even worse, the Padres had to give the Yankees cash because of that trade!

SEATTLE MARINERSGRADE: A+

Key Additions
- OF Austin Jackson
- OF Chris Denorfia

Key Loses
- INF Nick Franklin

ANALYSIS
Can you imagine how the conversation between the Tigers, Rays, and Mariners went when the Tigers and Rays told the Mariners that all that was needed to complete the David Price trade was that the Mariners needed to give up an infielder they didn't need and in exchange they receive an All Star outfielder? I guarantee you that Mariners GM Jack Zduriencik thought he was being Punk'd.

ST. LOUIS CARDINALSGRADE: B+

Key Additions
- RHP Justin Masterson
- RHP John Lackey

Key Loses
- 1B/OF Allen Craig
- OF James Ramsey

ANALYSIS
Even with All Star Allen Craig being shipped off to Boston and decent prospect James Ramsey being shipped out to Cleveland, the St. Louis Cardinals still have an outfield that consists of Matt Holliday and Oscar Tavares in the corners and John Jay and Peter Bourjos platooning in center. Busch Stadium is infamous for zapping power, and Allen Craig is a great player whose swing is not meant to call Busch home. The Cardinals were able to turn that into John Lackey who has been surprisingly good since 2013. They were also able to turn a prospect into a guy who they can plug into their rotation today in Justin Masterson. While Masterson turned a corner last year, he's having a dreadful season this year and it isn't hopeful to improve. But with that being said, the Cardinals have a great history of turning "eh" pitchers into post-season success. With Michael Wacha and Jamie Garcia on the 60 day DL and Shelby Miller being terrible, the Cardinals desperately needed warm bodies that can pitch successfully, and they added that without giving up too much. The Cardinals proved once again that they are one of the best organizations in baseball.

TAMPA BAY RAYSGRADE: C

Key Additions
- LHP Drew Smyly
- INF Nick Franklin

Key Loses
- RHP David Price

ANALYSIS
David Price is under contract for both this year as well as next year. Let me repeat that, David Price is currently under contract until the end of 2015. Because if David Price's contract ended this year, then this trade would have made SOME sense. The Rays feel like they're out of it, they can't resign Price at the end of the season, and at least they received SOMETHING for Price. But considering the Rays could have had David Price next year as well, getting an average starting pitcher and a below average infielder is just a horrible haul for a former Cy Young pitcher who is having an excellent year.

WASHINGTON NATIONALSGRADE: A-

Key Additions
- SS/2B Asdrubal Cabrera

Key Loses
- INF Zach Walters

ANALYSIS
Asdrubal Cabrera may not be that good anymore, but he's most certainly better than the atrocious Danny Espinosa. Without Cabrera, Anthony Rendon can play second, Ryan Zimmerman can play third, and that Nats outfield will consist of Bryce Harper, Jason Werth, and Denard Span. With Cabrera, Asdrubal moves to 2B, Rendon moves to 3B, and Zimmerman moves to the outfield kicking out Span. Now Bryce Harper and Ryan Zimmerman aren't guaranteed to be healthy come playoff time, but Asdrubal Cabrera gives the Nationals excellent flexibility with their defense no matter what. Considering the Nationals only had to give up a player who at best is projected to be a middling starter, this was an excellent trade for them.