i've been doing research on companies to start investing in, specifically spacedev, seeing as they will probably jump a good bit after a successful June 21 flight. anyone else going to do that, and does anyone know of any other space companies that offer stock? i don't think any of the x-prize teams are corporations, but i may be wrong. i don't have as much money to invest as i'd like by any stretch, but since the spacedev stock is low priced, it could potentially increase by over 100% due to the massive publicity for SS1, and i'm sure any other company would be low priced too, spreading a small amount of money over the industry seems like it could mean huge money once it's established.

i've been doing research on companies to start investing in, specifically spacedev, seeing as they will probably jump a good bit after a successful June 21 flight.

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i don't have as much money to invest as i'd like by any stretch, but since the spacedev stock is low priced, it could potentially increase by over 100% due to the massive publicity for SS1, and i'm sure any other company would be low priced too, spreading a small amount of money over the industry seems like it could mean huge money once it's established.

Yeah I looked at this too TerraMrs, so I went and had a look at this page to see if there was a relationship between SS1 launches and stock fluctuations for SpaceDev ...

SS1 did powered flights on 17 Dec 03, 8 Apr 04 and 13 May 04 ... I was hoping to see spikes associated with these ... but there are unfortunately no good correlations (they spiked in april but before the SS1 test) ... the only thing I could see for sure was that SPDV has been steadily increasing in value since a nadir they hit in late 2002. I suppose this just means that the SS1 + spacedev connection hasn't come up on the market radar?

I dare say you are right about the stock price of SPDV going up if SS1 reaches 100k ... the trick is to get in now and then pull out before the initial interest wanes. Of course I say that based on my own thesis that the xprize is a colourful flash in the pan with little likelyhood of a direct and long term commercial outcome ... which history will prove either right or wrong. It would be nice if I was wrong, but I own to be a little pessemistic.

i'm thinking that if i get it now and hold it until a week after or something, assuming it doesn't more than double (more than possible if there's good publicity), i'll sell it then buy again right before the xprize flights, but if it does more than double then i'll keep it, as odds are it will keep going up since scaled will keep flying, and the huge influx of investment could prove a catalyst for them to expand more. then again it could fall off after public interest wanes again, but i'd say that'll be fall at the earliest, so....

lol, i don't HAVE more cash than i can afford to lose , it's one of the disadvantages of being a minor. besides, i really think the chances of losing a meaningful percentage are slim to none. that's not to say i'll necessarily make money, but i'd put odds of a successful flight at around 99%, probably higher. this is scaled we're talking about after all.

SpaceDev has been very, very good to me! It has indeed been spiking on the various test flights. I started buying SapceDev last year and watched it spike to almost $2 a share, and was very pleased. Then I watched it drop back down to under a dollar a share after the excitement from a test launch waned.

Well, I knew Burt was going to test again, and eventually be trying for the prize, so I figured I'd just wait and see. And sure enough, in January it spiked again after a test. This time though, I new it would fall off, as Burt typically has weeks between test flights, so I sold-out knowing it would drop.

It did.

I then took all my profit and re-bought more shares when it dropped to under a dollar a share, and at the end of March following another test, it spiked again. And I sold-out again waitng for another drop. This time it dropped much more slowly. I knew Burt was quickening his pace and I kept sweating out when to buy back in. I really wanted it to drop below a dollar a share again, but I knew Burt wouldn't wait around forever, so I put in a limit order for $1.15 and picked it up on a small dip.

So now with the announcement and all, it's spiking all over again. Each time, I'm able to keep picking up more shares. Now, I'm not a big stock trader or anything, and I normally am a buy and holder, but I've been following the X-prize and SS1 enough, and watching SpaceDev to anticipate what the stock might do. It's been a great learning experience for a novice stock trader like me.

Each time a successful flight hits the news, the stock spikes; however, the trading population that rushes in on stocks based on sudden news like that, has now jumped on SpaceDev at least 3 if not 4 times...that, coupled with the compression in the test schedule, seems to have kept interest up and the stock doesn't dip as much on the sell-off as much as it used to. Yet, interest gets wider and wider as news of the effort begins to permeate more and more general interest news publications.

SpaceDev used to have an average volume of around 30K shares a day, but just a couple of days ago, the volume for that day was 350K shares. So more and more people have put SpaceDev on "their radars," and average volume now is upwards of 100K a day.

The question now is, how big a spike will the stock get if there's a successful flight on the 21st? Or has all the interest already been built into the stock price during the recent runup since May? SpaceDev has traded higher than the current price on such irrational exuberance before. The follow-on question then, is how long between the 21st flight, and the official X-Prize attempts? Will there be enough time for the price to drift downwards so that another good spike will happen on the official X-prize flights? We'll have to wait and see what sort of announcement might be made at the conclusion of the 21st flight. SpaceDev has also annouced their intentions of releasing a commercial spaceflight business plan after the X-prize flights. Will that generate a spike too? Time will tell.

I've owned spacedev since 1999. The price has widely fluctuated, but lately, with all the SS1 interest, the volume has greatly increased and price has steadily risen. The real question with this company will be whether they can sell the hybrid technology for other efforts. In addition to all the SS1 hype, the company recently got a government contract worth up to $35 million. I'm confident that there is plenty of market and room for them to grow from here.

As an accountant who knows how to read SEC statements, I will tell you that SpaceDev is a HORRIBLE investment for common stock holders, unless you plan on holding the stock for a very long time.

If you read their Securities and Exchange Commission filings, you will find out that they have issued a massive amount of preferred stock to executives of the company, and continue to do so every year to keep the executives happy.

Preferred stock gets paid dividends before the owners of common stock do.

They also have not actually made any money, i.e. they have yet to actually show a profit. There is that small detail.

Invest only the portion of your holdings that you reserve for very high-risk investments. There is a very good chance that this company will fold before ever issuing any actual returns, making your stock worthless.