000
FXUS64 KSHV 070850
AFDSHV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
350 AM CDT Sun Jun 7 2020
.SHORT TERM.../Today through Monday Night/
The primary concern in the short-term continues to be the impending
landfall of Tropical Storm Cristobal and its impacts as it moves
inland. Cristobal is still expected to arrive on the Louisiana
coast by this evening. Precipitation chances will gradually
increase from southeast to northwest today as Cristobal moves
closer, and will mainly be confined to our Louisiana parishes.
However, some isolated showers/t-storms on the outer bands of
Cristobal could make it into portions of Deep East Texas and
Southern Arkansas.
By early Monday morning, Cristobal will weaken to a Tropical
Depression. The center of Cristobal should be moving through
Central Louisiana into Northeast Louisiana at this time. This is
when our area should see the heaviest rainfall. There still
remains some uncertainty on the location of the heaviest rain,
but the best chances appear to be across our eastern zones,
generally west of the US HWY 167 corridor from Southern Arkansas
south through Central Louisiana. As with any landfalling tropical
system isolated tornadoes cannot be ruled out, along with locally
heavy rainfall and gusty winds. At this time, opted not to issue
a Flash Flood watch, as there is some thought that the heaviest
rainfall will occur east of the region. However, flash flooding
does remain a threat, so a watch could be issued later today. All
threats should diminish by Monday evening, as the remnants of
Cristobal will move north of the region into Central Arkansas.
Despite the increasing cloud cover today, above normal temperatures
will remain, with highs ranging from the upper 80s to the lower
90s. A few mid 90s temps could be possible across the western half
of East Texas, southeast Oklahoma, and portions of SW Arkansas
north of Interstate 30, where cloud cover will not be as
extensive. Cooler temperatures expected on Monday, with Cristobal
bringing widespread rain and cloud cover to the region. Highs will
range from the low 80s in our eastern zones closer to Cristobal
to near 90 across our western zones.
.LONG TERM.../Tuesday through Sunday/
The remnants of TS Cristobal will have pulled through the Four-
States region towards the start of this long-term period. However,
some wrap around precipitation will be possible during the early
morning hours on Tuesday. Regarding precipitation, most of the long-
term appears to be dry, as a cold front will move through the area
on Wednesday, and dry air will remain filtering in through the
weekend. As such, Tuesday and Wednesday will have the highest PoPs
for this long-term period.
Temperature wise, look for a scorcher on Tuesday, as SW flow and
likely compressional heating will push temperatures well into the
upper-90s area wide. It`s not out of the questions that some of our
E. Texas sites reach the triple digits come Tuesday afternoon. Look
for a 5-10 degree swing behind the cold front on Wednesday, with
temperatures returning to a more seasonal feel in the low-90s. The
remaining long-term period will run just at, to slightly above
average, with afternoon highs in the low-90s, and overnight lows
dropping into the mid to upper-60s.
/44/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 115 AM CDT Sun Jun 7 2020/
AVIATION...
For the 07/06 TAFs...Currently, clear skies and VFR conditions
with a few lingering high passing clouds. Winds will be light
through much of the night before increasing to around 10 to 15 kts
ahead of Tropical Storm Crisobal`s landfall on the Louisiana Gulf
Coast. In addition, mid to high level clouds will also increase
from the southeast to northwest during the period, with a few
isolated storms from the outer bands making it into the region.
Decided to add VCTS at KMLU, but rain could make it as far west
as KSHV and KLFK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 92 75 84 75 / 20 40 70 20
MLU 91 74 82 75 / 30 70 100 60
DEQ 93 74 87 70 / 0 10 50 20
TXK 91 75 82 73 / 10 10 60 20
ELD 91 72 81 71 / 10 40 90 50
TYR 93 75 90 75 / 10 10 20 0
GGG 93 75 89 75 / 10 20 50 10
LFK 93 75 92 76 / 20 30 50 10
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&
$$
20/44