Bet Against the Best in the BC

POSTED Oct 18, 2013
By
Derek Simon

From the time I made my first trip to
the track at 15 years of age until well into my 20s, I thought horse race
handicapping was all about finding the “best” horse.

Steve Davidowitz wrote about his
50-percent winning average in “Betting Thoroughbreds” and I was enthralled;
William L. Scott explained how concentrating on the top three betting choices
could produce consistent winnings in “Investing at the Racetrack” and I was
mesmerized.

By the time I reached my 30s, I was
disillusioned.

It’s not that those books have no value
— at the time they were published (about 30 years ago), they were great. And I
still consider them required reading for any aspiring horse player.

But the game has changed over the last
three decades. The hordes of novice players that used to pack the grandstand are
gone, replaced by veteran players packing a laptop and a printout of
sophisticated speed and/or pace figures.

I’ve said it before, I’ll say it
again: The average horse bettor today knows more about the game he/she is
playing than the average investor knows about the stock market. As a result,
the pari-mutuel market is very efficient and finding the “best” horse simply
doesn’t cut it. Sure, you may be able to win a fair percentage of the time, but
invariably you’ll get paid $5.20 or less for the trouble.

No series of races quite drums home
this point like the Breeders’ Cup. Since 1997, favorites have won just 29
percent of the time, largely due to the highly competitive nature of the races
and the bigger-than-normal fields.

But this got me to wondering: Is there
a way to profit from the knowledge that the best horses don’t always perform up
to expectations on Breeders’ Cup Day?

After some exhaustive research, I had
my answer — yes. Better still, there are numerous ways it can be accomplished.

The first test I conducted related to
the Brisnet Power Ratings.

Now, under normal circumstances, horses with the highest Brisnet Power Rating do
about as well as favorites in terms of winning percentage and even ROI — with the
added bonus that one needn’t monitor the tote board (to determine who, exactly,
the favorite is).

However, in the BC, this is definitely not the case. Take a peek at the digits
on horses possessing the highest Brisnet Power Rating for the race in which
they were entered (since 1997):

Number (races): 131 (131)

Winners: 21

Race Win Rate: 16.0%

Net Return: $1.10

ROI: -44.89%

The numbers aren’t much better for
horses with the second-best Brisnet Power Rating (BPR) either:

Number (races): 131 (131)

Winners: 16

Race Win Rate: 12.2%

Net Return: $1.59

ROI: -20.50%

Yet, if we toss the top two BPR horses in every
BC race and insist on minimum morning-line odds of 5-1, we get the following
stats:

Number: 970 (131)

Winners: 54

Race Win Rate: 41.2%

Net Return: $2.02

ROI: +1.11%

Granted, these numbers wouldn’t have
made you rich, but at least they’re positive.

The second test that I did was even
more straightforward — I simply used the morning line odds to assess who the
best horses were. Like the Brisnet Power Ratings (only in reverse), the lower odds
represented the best horses and, therefore, the horses I suspected one should
bet against.

I was right.

The sole morning-line favorite (I
eliminated entries to keep it apples to apples) in BC contests performed
thusly (since 1997):

Number: 153 (153)

Winners: 39

Race Win Rate: 25.5%

Net Return: $1.48

ROI:-25.78%

Once again, however, we see profits if
we toss the morning-line favorite and ask, instead, for a morning-line price
of 5-1 or greater:

Number: 1,484 (154)

Winners: 92

Race Win Rate: 59.7%

Net Return: $2.08

ROI: +3.89%

These are just a couple of ways to find
value in the Breeders’ Cup races; obviously, there are many, many more. The key
thing to take from this, though, is that the “best” horse isn’t always the one
to bet… especially come Nov. 1-2 at Santa Anita Park.

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Welcome to the TwinSpires Blog. Our contributors will be continually updating posts to offer commentary, insight, advice and expert opinions on horse racing and wagering. The goal is to help you win more and become a better all around horse player.

Contributors

TwinSpires' horse racing author, handicapper, and podcast host, Derek Simon of Denver, Colo. offers his insightful, humorous and sometimes controversial take on the horse racing industry. He even publishes the ROI on the picks he gives out.

The Director of Marketing for Bloodstock Research Information Services (BRIS) and a lifelong Thoroughbred racing enthusiast and astute handicapper, Ed joined Churchill Downs Inc. following nine years as a writer and editor with Thoroughbred Times.

A writer and editor who has been following horse racing for fifteen years. Peter has written books for the Daily Racing Form Press; Crown; and Simon and Schuster; among other publishers, and regular features in The Horseplayer Magazine.