The dismissal of Bo Xilai from his post as Chongqing Party Secretary last week may have calmed some of the political seas in China. But it did not end a developing sense of disquiet in some parts of Chinese society.

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Xi Jinping

Some of that uneasiness stems from the fact that a major leader with a very different political style was heaved overboard. That’s not the way the Chinese ship of state has operated in recent years.

There’s also apprehension over whether this year’s leadership transition will sail smoothly from here on. It’s not that there’s strong opposition in the society, or even the system, to the heir-apparent Xi Jinping. It’s the creeping curiosity about just which way will Xi end up turning.

With Bo forced to walk the plank, Xi gets to chart more of his own course. And getting others to sail with him towards something with even more promise is the new challenge.

Every good leadership in China has faced the same challenge: to attract the support necessary to get to power and then to govern. That’s even more the case these days given the disagreements between an outspoken Left, which still argues (in Chinese) that Bo’s approach in Chongqing charted a course towards economic equality and social justice, and the reticent Right, banged about by waves of tighter control but not afraid to yell out, as they did in today’s People’s Daily, that it is high-time to “dare cadres to come clean with the masses” (in Chinese).

Anyone trying to sail in these squalls towards a safe political harbor has their hands full. So what will Xi do?

To a certain degree, he has already started. His appearance with both President Hu Jintao and Premier Wen Jiabao earlier this week was a signal to all cadres that the core of the leadership is intact, largely undamaged and supportive of a continuation of the present course of Xi taking command. Yesterday, he also stepped out on his own a bit, praising non-public enterprises as “an important force for the development of a socialist market economy” (in Chinese) — a shot across the bow for those who thought that the Chongqing model of propping up massive state-run conglomerates was the way to navigate.

Looking forward, some sort of domestic tour could be in the offing. Xi might begin by traveling to Guangdong, emulating Deng Xiaoping’s “trip to the south” and praising Wang Yang’s efforts to build up a “happiness index” by which to measure cadre performance and enhance Party legitimacy. That would be a tip of the cap to those officials who do want some sort of restructuring, but were put off by Bo’s full-speed-ahead sort of politics.

Xi might also move to placate the armed forces — some elements of which appear to have been sympathetic towards Bo’s efforts to make Chongqing a hub for economic development that benefitted the military. Already, criticisms of armed forces readiness in the Chongqing region have surfaced in the military media (in Chinese), a signal that some officers might have been uneasy about too-close civilian-military ties in the city. Xi needs the support of those sorts of reformers in the military, and they need him to address competition within the various branches for scarcer resources. While Xi might not get everyone to stand behind him, he’s already shown a marked willingness to listen carefully.

Bo Xilai got himself into deep waters by trying to mobilize the masses. Xi, on the other hand, seems to recognize that the best hope for reform of any sort is by appealing to the policy-making apparatus. That’s good news for those who prefer China to make a slow pivot.

The next few weeks provide a clear opportunity for Xi and his allies to display their own flag more prominently, and show just how good they can be as future captains.

Russell Leigh Moses is a Beijing-based analyst and professor who writes on Chinese politics. He is writing a book on the changing role of power in the Chinese political system.

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