Month: November 2015

After Nebraska’s 28-20 loss to Iowa left the Cornhuskers at 5-7 for the 2015 season, NU’s fans were left looking to the future. While a bowl game looks to be in the cards, most Nebraska fans are more than ready to turn the page on 2015. But before we let the season go, it’s time to learn what lessons have been learned.

Change Is Hard

Some, like this dope, thought that Nebraska wouldn’t miss a beat when Mike Riley took over from Bo Pelini. Nebraska would be able to retain the best of what it did previously, clean up its mistakes, and take a step forward.

A new offense and a new defense – and, most importantly, a roster full of players not recruited for the coaches’ system – is a recipe for a rough transition. And even though some of the losses were of the heartbreaking and head-shaking variety, the fact remains that Nebraska had seven of them in 2015.

Hopefully for Nebraska fans, the extra practice from a bowl game (and NU fans better not ever complain about “too many bowls” again) along with an extra year in the system should make 2016 a much better experience.

The Quarterback Is Important

Now that the jury’s in on the 2015 season, let’s take a look at how Tommy Armstrong did.

Year

Attempts

Completions

Yards

Comp. %

TD

INT

2014

345

184

2695

53.3

22

12

2015

428

235

3152

54.9

21

20

Clearly, Armstrong was asked to do more this year than last, with an extra 83 passing attempts (an additional 6.92 attempts per game). Some of that was due to the change in offenses with a new staff, and some was due to the absence of a game-changing back like Ameer Abdullah.

Unfortunately, at the end of 2015 Armstrong’s results didn’t look that much difference than Armstrong in 2014. Armstrong’s completion percentage made a marginal improvement, certainly not enough for Nebraska to be successful. And, worryingly, Armstrong’s touchdown-to-interception ratio got significantly worse, going from 1.83 in 2014 to an abysmal 1.05 in 2015.

Against Iowa, we saw what that number means. Nebraska outperformed Iowa in just about every statistical category. Nebraska’s defense – the source of distress for most of the season – did more than enough to win the game. But Armstrong’s four interceptions were the difference between victory and defeat in this year’s Heroes Game.

That’s to take nothing away from Iowa’s win. The Hawkeyes are a solid squad of ham-and-eggers, doing what they do and waiting for you to make the mistake. That formula has earned Iowa a trip to Indianapolis for, functionally, a play-in game for the College Football Playoff.

Armstrong’s performance this year was not good enough for Nebraska to achieve its goals – just like it wasn’t good enough last year. In 2016, a different quarterback has to be under center for Nebraska. Perhaps it’s a different Armstrong, one who can use his remarkable talents and learn to avoid the back-breaking mistakes. Perhaps it’s four-star phenom Patrick O’Brien, who looks to enroll early and get a head start on learning Riley’s offense. Perhaps it’s one of the other quarterbacks on the roster, like Ryker Fyfe, A.J. Bush, or (my dark-horse pick) Zack Darlington, with an additional year learning the system.

But without improvement at the quarterback position, Nebraska has no chance to advance in 2016.

Old Habits Die Hard

Nebraska found a number of creative ways to lose a football game in 2015. But against Iowa, the refrain was hauntingly similar to losses of Huskers past. Turnovers (four interceptions, and a minus-three turnover ratio) and penalties (eight for 95 yards, compared to Iowa’s six for 54) turned a game that Nebraska dominated statistically into an eight-point loss.

Last year, Nebraska was no. 75 nationally in turnover margin, and no. 56 nationally in penalties (according to cfbstats.com). Against Iowa, the problems that plagued Nebraska in years past came back to cost Nebraska a chance at a winning season in 2015.

Lincoln Ain’t Corvallis

Riley is no stranger to seasons like Nebraska’s 2015. In his second stint at Oregon State, Riley finished 5-7 or worse four times in 12 years. By the end of his tenure in Corvalis, Riley was beginning to feel some heat as a result of the team’s performance.

A sub-.500 record one year in four might earn you 12 years in Corvalis, but not in Lincoln. At least some Nebraska fans are willing to give Riley a pass on 2015, given the combination of a new coach and a host of injuries. But Riley has to know that in Lincoln, 5-7 has to be an anomaly, not a recurring theme.

Patience is No Fun

2015 hasn’t been much fun. A series of losses and catastrophic injuries has made Nebraska’s season one to endure more than enjoy. The hope for Nebraska fans has to be that the spade work of 2015 – learning a new system and adapting the roster to meet the demands of the new scheme – will pay off in years to come.

Thanks to a whole bunch of new made-for-TV bowl games, Nebraska should make a post-season appearance. That means Nebraska will get the extra bowl practices, and a head-start on preparations for the 2016 season.

A smart and particularly handsome analyst has said Nebraska should be favored to win the B1G West next season. 2016 seems like a long ways away – and there’s certainly no guarantee of success – but if the crucible of 2015 produces a trip to Indianapolis in 2016, it will all be worth it.

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When Nebraska left the Big 12 for the B1G, one question to be asked is who Nebraska’s rival in the conference would be. Nebraska’s traditional day-after-Thanksgiving game needed an opponent, and NU’s neighbor to the east was the natural choice. Soon after the series started, it got the moniker of the “Heroes Game” and an anodyne trophy to play for.

The Nebraska-Iowa series has been competitive since its inception in 2011, with the trophy changing hands each season since 2012. But even with the close games (including an overtime thriller in Iowa City last year), a rivalry between the teams has really failed to launch.

The relative struggles of the two teams may have something to do with the lack of juice in the contest. Only once, in 2012, was a trip to the B1G Championship on the line. Nebraska won the game, but Iowa came into the contest at 4-7 and eliminated from bowl contention beforehand.

Nebraska’s had other fish to fry coming into the league, as well. At the start, Nebraska’s “crossover” rival was Penn State, trying to recapture the history of that series. But the Jerry Sandusky scandal put Penn State on the shelf.

Nebraska has also had quite a history with Wisconsin, most of it not particularly good for the scarlet and cream. Plus, Wisconsin’s success in recent years made the Badgers a much more palatable rival for most Nebraska fans.

But this year has the potential to change all of that. Assuming Iowa can hold serve at home against Purdue, the Hawkeyes will come to Lincoln at 11-0 and with their College Football Playoff destiny in their own hands.

Nebraska, on the other hand, will be sitting at 5-6, needing a win just to guarantee bowl eligibility (and the extra practices that even an appearance in the Pinstripe or Foster Farms Bowl would provide). Dismissive sniffs from Husker fan about Iowa not being good enough to consider a rival will go out the window in 2015.

Iowa fans have, in general, never needed much of a reason to dislike Nebraska. Even when Nebraska was in the Big 12, many Iowa fans have held a special disdain for their Big Red neighbors to the west. The chance to sew up a perfect regular season and guarantee Nebraska a losing season would be an amazing early Christmas present for the black and gold faithful.

Nebraska fans, on the other hand, see this year’s Heroes Game as a chance to maintain some of what they see is order in the football universe. Iowa is enjoying a season for the ages, and (assuming a win over Purdue) would be two wins from the greatest accomplishment in the history of the program.

So one of two things can happen on the day after Thanksgiving. Iowa can knock of the Big Red, sending it to a losing season as it is on its way to compete for a College Football Playoff berth – and having that to hold over the heads of their scarlet-and-cream neighbors for the rest of time. Or, Nebraska can spoil Iowa’s historic chance at glory, and in the process redeem a disastrous first year for head coach Mike Riley.

Yes, the Heroes Game is a manufactured event with an anodyne trophy. But – finally – there’s something important on the line for both teams. A game like this, and the emotions that will be generated on either side of the Missouri River as a result, is the stuff that real rivalries are made of.

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Nebraska football fans have been enduring a horrible, surreal season, seeing their Cornhuskers stumble out of the gate and be sitting at 4-6 with two games remaining. For many, the shock of this season has yet to wear off, and watching loss after loss has dulled their ability to see many good things coming in the future.

Well, keep your chins up, Husker fan. There’s plenty of reason to expect Nebraska to not only rebound from this year, but to be at the top and looking for a trip to Indianapolis next season. Here’s why.

Returning Starters

Here’s a list of Nebraska’s starters that likely will not be back in 2016, either through graduation or leaving early for the NFL

That means Nebraska should have at least 15 returning starters next season. Yes, Collins will be a big loss if he does leave early for the NFL. And the turnover on the offensive line is a worry, particularly with the lack of rotation we’ve seen this season.

But outside of Janovich, all of Nebraska’s offensive skill position starters will be back next year. The secondary loses only one starter, and should improve after another full season of working in defensive coordinator Mark Banker’s system.

And the redshirts from 2015 should begin to pay dividends next year. The Davis brothers (Carlos and Khalil) should be ready to contribute, and have the recruiting pedigree to suggest they can provide some help with Nebraska’s struggling pass rush. Defensive backs Eric Lee and Avery Anderson, two of the highest-rated recruits in last year’s class, will have another year learning the system and should be primed to shore up Nebraska’s pass defense. And the three redshirt offensive linemen, combined with the three redshirt freshmen currently on the roster, should provide some cover for the linemen Nebraska will lose after this season.

So next season Nebraska’s roster should be deeper and more balanced, as well as having more experience in Mike Riley’s system.

Coach Effect

I know Nebraska fans frustrated with losing six games before November don’t want to hear about what a good coach Riley is. And there’s plenty of room to criticize Riley’s handling of the team this year, rest assured.

But if we look at Riley’s performance over his career, those numbers suggest reasons for optimism. Dave Bartoo of CFBMatrix has created a metric called “Coach Effect” which uses past performances, talent ratings, and game locations to determine how well coaches do in comparison to how an “average” coach would do.

As of 2014, the most recent data available, Riley is the no. 11 coach in the country in terms of Coach Effect, with a 1.50 score. That means, all else being equal, a Riley-coached team could be expected to win 1.5 games more per season than an “average” coach given the talent and schedule of a particular team.

Riley’s Coach Effect score will likely come down after this season, but his number should still be one of the best in the nation. That suggests Riley should have the ability, with a huge number of returning starters next season, to be successful in 2016.

Talent Level

In addition to coaching, Bartoo’s theory of college football involves the teams with the best talent winning. Like his Coach Effect, Bartoo measures a team’s talent level by aggregating recruiting service rankings. As of 2014, Nebraska’s talent rating was no. 24 nationally. That was third in the B1G, and significantly better than Nebraska’s closest B1G West rivals, Wisconsin (no. 40), Iowa (no. 42) and Northwestern (no. 52).

This year’s preliminary recruiting classes suggest Nebraska’s talent edge should continue. According to 247 Sports, Nebraska has the no. 25 class nationally in 2016 recruiting. That puts Nebraska ahead of all its B1G West rivals, like Wisconsin (no. 29), Iowa (no. 39), and Northwestern (no. 48).

So coming into next season, the data suggests that Nebraska’s roster should be as talented – if not more so – than any B1G West team it will face in 2016.

What 2015 Really Means

Yeah, yeah, all of that happy talk is great. But Nebraska is 4-6 with two games to go in 2015. Isn’t it a pretty big leap to expect Nebraska to go from needing a four-game winning streak (including a bowl) to avoid a losing record to a division title?

Well, that would be assuming that Nebraska’s struggles this year are indicative of the program’s true position. And there’s plenty of evidence to suggest they are not.

I know, you’ve heard all the excuses about Nebraska’s 2015 struggles. But the fact is, five of Nebraska’s six losses were functional coin-flips. A Hail Mary against BYU, one poor decision against Miami, a missed two-point conversion against Northwestern, all the fine margins between a disappointing season and the burning tire-fire of 2015. And the one really ugly blemish on Nebraska’s record, a 10-point loss to a 1-6 Purdue, was on the road with a backup quarterback, a backup running back, and losing NU’s most dangerous offensive weapon.

That’s not to absolve Riley and his staff of responsibility for those losses, of course. But over the course of this year, as the losses have piled up, a malaise has set in on the fanbase. People assumed the worst, that Nebraska’s struggles over this season have become the new normal, and have adjusted their expectations accordingly.

The underlying fundamentals of the program, though, suggest that 2015 is an anomaly. Nebraska was a nine-win program last year, will be in the second year of a coaching change next year, has a historically over-performing coach, and has equal or better talent than every other team in the division.

That’s not the recipe for a rebuilding year (never mind what a certain athletic director, for reasons known only to him, said earlier). That’s a recipe for a team to bounce back to at least where it was before. And with a coach who has a better track record of performance (Bo Pelini’s coach effect as of 2014 was -0.33, in comparison), it’s not unreasonable to think Nebraska could be primed to break through its glass ceiling in 2016.

Is it a guarantee? Of course not. But Nebraska fans enduring the 2015 season should take heart. As crazy as it might sound now, there is no reason not to expect – to demand, actually – that Nebraska challenge for a divisional title in 2016.

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So, how are you holding up, Husker fan? Just when you thought the season couldn’t get more surreal, the Blackshirts get a fifty-burger dropped on them by a 1-6 Purdue team, losing 55-45. The loss drops Nebraska to 3-6 on the season, with games against undefeated Michigan State and Iowa and a road trip to Rutgers still to come.

To call this season a disaster does a disservice to disasters everywhere, and it’s put the fanbase in a frenzy. Many are convinced that the hiring of head coach Mike Riley was a disastrous mistake, and a signal that the Nebraska program was fading into the sunset of past glories.

After all, Nebraska hasn’t won a conference championship since 1999. It hasn’t been relevant on the national stage since a blowout loss to Miami in the 2000 national championship game. And in a low-population state in the middle of the country, the fear amongst the fanbase is that Nebraska’s inherent recruiting challenges combined with the current struggles means NU is destined to recede into the college football history books.

Sure, national relevance and the College Football Playoff (heck, even the top 25 at this point) look a million miles away from where Nebraska is right now. But is this the new normal for Nebraska? There’s plenty of reasons to suspect that it is not.

Before we get deeper into the discussion, I’ll go through all the reasons why this year could be considered an anomaly. Five of Nebraska’s losses were by a total of 13 points, and came with NU leading in the fourth quarter. Three were on the opposing team’s final offensive possession. And the loss to Purdue was without Nebraska’s starting quarterback (Tommy Armstrong), starting tailback (Terrell Newby), and most dynamic offensive weapon (De’Mornay Pierson-El).

More importantly, the Purdue loss demonstrated what a smart and particularly handsome analyst worried about earlier this season. Football is hard work. It’s a hard game to play, and it’s a hard game to prepare for. It’s a lot to ask a group of 18-22 year olds to absorb heartbreaking loss after heartbreaking loss and give maximum effort on the field. It’s a lot to ask those 18-22 year olds to continue believing in themselves and the process enough to perform confidently play after play.

I know, Husker fan, that you don’t want to hear any of that. You’re mad, and you’re hurt, and you’re scared, and you don’t want to hear any excuses. That’s fair. Riley may be a great guy and well respected in the coaching fraternity, but his job is to deliver wins on Saturday. He’s off to the worst start Nebraska football has seen since before Bob Devaney, and he’s responsible for that.

But is 2015 the harbinger of things to come? Is Nebraska football relegated to a program fighting for a win in November to earn a trip to Detroit in late December facing a third-tier ACC team?

Well, other programs have had their fallow periods. In 2007, Alabama was 4-9. In 2006, Michigan State was 4-8. In 2012, Iowa was 4-8. This year, Texas is 3-5.

The point is that teams have shockingly bad seasons, and rebound. A losing season does not destroy the foundations of a program. If the foundation is strong, then a bad season can be a baseline for a football revival.

So how do you tell if a program has a strong foundation? Well, at the risk of reprising an unfortunate John McCain quote, you first look to see if the fundamentals are strong.

Dave Bartoo of CFB Matrix believes that a program’s talent and coaching can explain almost all of a team’s performance on the field. So let’s take a look at what his numbers say about Nebraska’s program.

As of 2014, Nebraska’s overall talent ranking was no. 24 nationally, right between Oklahoma State and Virginia Tech. While that talent ranking certainly could be better, it puts Nebraska no. 3 in the B1G overall and no. 1 in the B1G West. That means, from a talent standpoint, Nebraska has enough raw material on the field to be competing for conference titles each year.

With regards to coaching, as of 2014 Mike Riley had a coaching effect of 1.50, meaning that a Riley-coached team could be expected to win 1.5 more games per year than an “average” coach based on relative talent. That coach effect rating was no. 11 nationally.

Yes, Riley’s coaching effect will likely go down after the results of this season. But that’s the danger of small sample sizes. The benefit of work like Bartoo’s is that you can take a longer view informed by more data to help make judgments. Riley’s inability to coach is taken as a given by many Nebraska fans – understandably so, if you just look at the results of this season. But taking more data and a larger sample size into account, the numbers suggest the opposite conclusion.

So, Nebraska has the talent to compete, and a coach with a track record over a number of years that would indicate an ability to over-perform based on his talent level. But there is one more element of the Nebraska program that suggests a disastrous season like 2015 will not be enough to swamp the boat.

Shawn Eichorst, Nebraska’s athletic director, is not the most popular man amongst the fans these days. Part of that is a function of his position – bosses in suits focused as much on spreadsheets as opposed to playbooks are easy villains when the football team struggles. Any athletic director who wasn’t previously a national championship winning head football coach is going to be the target of fan ire when things go poorly in football.

But Eichorst did something very important when he fired Bo Pelini – he set the standard high for Nebraska football. Here’s what he said at the press conference announcing Pelini’s dismissal (according to the Omaha World-Herald):

[T]here are standards and expectations at Nebraska that are high both on and off the field. And although we did win a bunch of games, we didn’t win the games that mattered the most … We have high standards and expectations, and that’s to play championship football … Nebraska has everything it needs to be successful at the highest level. We can go back and analyze the 80’s and 90’s and all that other sort of stuff but that is not going to help us out today. I think we are positioned to play championship-caliber football here at the University of Nebraska.

Of course, given a 3-6 start to the Riley era, it’s hard not to see those words as a reprise of former athletic director Steve Pederson’s infamous “gravitating towards mediocrity” line when he fired Frank Solich. But Eichorst very clearly set the expectations for Nebraska – championship-caliber football.

And those high standards demanded from a fanbase are, ultimately, what will keep a program strong. Both Eichorst and Riley will be held to those standards, even if the time frame as to achieving them will be the subject of debate.

But, ultimately, programs don’t fade into the history books because of failures on the field. They fade into history because those on-the-field failures break the will of the fanbase to demand better.

So for all of you calling for Riley’s firing at the end of this season or tomorrow afternoon – as unreasonable and irrational as that might be – keep it up. Well, maybe with a touch of reality sprinkled in. But as long as the man in charge of the program is setting the expectation at “championship-caliber football” – and the fanbase is holding the program accountable to that expectation – then the program will survive a lean year like this.