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Saturday, March 15, 2014

Atsaves: Illinois' 10th CD is very similar to Florida's 13th

Is a special Florida Congressional District (13th) a Republican roadmap for a Robert Dold victory in the Illinos 10th this coming November?

Consider some facts recently glossed over by the mainstream media and die hard President Obama supporters. First, the election results, as published by the Politico website:

District

Candidate

Party

% of Vote

Vote Count

13th District100%

Reporting

Winner D. Jolly

GOP

48.5%

89,095

A. Sink

Dem

46.6%

85,639

L. Overby

Lib

4.8%

8,893

Notice the presence of a Libertarian candidate, who seems to have taken votes from the Republican winner. Democrat Sink was rejected by 53.3% of that Florida Congressional District (13th). President Obama won that Congressional District twice and the once comfortably Republican area was considered a "toss up" by so-called experts. Sink and her supporters outspent Jolly by a 4 to 1 margin. Sink portrayed herself as a "moderate" Democrat during the election. Over $11 million was spent by the three campaigns. Bill Clinton came to the district to campaign for Sink.

Jolly was portrayed by Democrats as an extremist who would harm Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid, along with other programs important to senior citizens. Jolly campaigned on the repeal of Obamacare.

Some conservative Republican pundits strangely took the position that this election would not be a "bellwether" test on Obamacare, agreeing with most Democrat pundits. Post election, the argument continues amongst those same pundits.

Also interesting, again at the influential Politico website, Obama advisor David Axelrod felt the problems with "Obamacare" motivated the Republican base. The Democratic loser's "mending, not ending" Obamacare message fell short, but Democrats would not be able to walk away from that position.

What I find fascinating about that analysis, is that President Obama isn't interested in "mending, not ending" the Affordable Care Act, only delaying multiple provisions and deadlines into the future in the hopes that the unworkable can later become workable. Or the unappetizing later becomes more appetizing?

Bill Allen writing on that same site noted an opinion piece by Karl Rove that appeared in the Wall Street Journal. Rove, infamously despised by Democrats and far right Republicans, noted that "Jolly put Obamacare in a larger frame, urging voters to elect someone to be a check and balance for Mr. Obama, rather than blindly support him. This cut well with independents, according to some private polls by outside groups. Mr. Jolly's success depended upon convincing them he would go to Washington to make things work, not to blow it up."

How does this affect the Schneider-Dold rematch in the Illinois 10th? The race has been described by so-called experts as being a "toss up" or leaning Democrat. The District was gerrymandered by Democrats following the 2010 census to guarantee strong Democratic victories, yet Dold barely lost to Schneider in 2012. Schneider constantly portrays himself as a "moderate" Democrat, while continuing to wholeheartedly support Obama. Schneider has expressed his alleged annoyance with Obamacare and its initial failed rollout and website, yet has not introduced a single bill to "mend" it.