9.49pm. The two-party results from the pre-polls have now been added. I’ve switched off booth-matching, so all swings shown above compare the current result with the final total from 2012.

8.30pm. All booths now in on 2PP, and around 4000 new pre-poll votes added on the primary vote. I’m guessing a two-party result for the latter votes is the last outstanding addition for the evening.

8.04pm. All booths in on 2PP now except Scarborough North. The latest additions have slightly moderated Labor’s winning margin.

7.57pm. All booths in on the primary vote, four outstanding on 2PP.

7.52pm. Redcliffe TAFE 2PP added, with four left to go on 2PP, and Scarborough the one straggler on the primary vote.

7.39pm. When I said Scarborough had reported before, I meant Woody Point. Kippa-Ring north has reported as well, as have seven booths all told on 2PP. So the Labor margin of 7% is looking solid.

7.36pm. Bally Cara 2PP result added, which has moderated Labor’s gain on the preference share considerably: now up 3.6%, with the LNP down 6.3%, and exhausted up 2.8%. Still a projected Labor winning margin of 7% though.

7.33pm. Scarborough booth added on the primary vote, leaving only two more to go, but with still only one booth reporting on 2PP.

7.30pm. The pre-poll votes also have 2PP results now, and here Labor’s gain on the preference share is more modest. However, the projection above is based on polling booth results only.

7.29pm. Finally a 2PP result, from Kippa-Ring South, and the projection is now using this result rather than the 2012 election to extrapolate across other booths. This has given a solid boost to the projected Labor margin, with Labor’s share of preferences up 9.7%, the LNP’s down 8.0%, and exhausted down 1.8%.

7.06pm. Bally Cara and Redcliffe TAFE have reported on the primary vote. The former is a retirement village and comfortably the electorate’s most conservative booth. Respective two-party swings are 11.8% and 14.8%, well in line with overall trend and confirming an impression of Labor winning by 3-4%.

7.04pm. 2463 pre-polls added, which I don’t have configured for booth-matching, but the swing on them is perfectly consistent with the overall trend. I gather this is about half the likely pre-poll total.

6.59pm. Second booth in now, from Frawley, and projected Labor winning margin up from 2.6% to 3.5%. Still going off 2012 preferences here, so a small degree of caution advised.

6.52pm. So far, I’m going off the 2012 election preferences. The first two columns in the above table are raw representations of the primary votes, but the swing and two-party columns are based on booth-matched results.

6.48pm. The Humpybong booth is first out of the blocks, and it shows a Labor swing 12.7%, enough to overturn the overall 10.1% by a small margin. This was Labor’s best booth in 2012, or its least bad — the LNP margin was 57-43.

6pm. Polls have now closed, as ReachTEL reports an exit poll shows Labor headed for a comfortable victory. Stay tuned for coverage of results as they emerge, which should start to happen in three-quarters of an hour or so.

I’d hazard a guess that most of the swing against the Greens went Labor’s way (wanting to ride the strongest surfer on the wave against the LNP), maybe some of it went to Len Thomas (he seems to be the primary “I hate both major parties” protest vote here).

Given the way things have worked out for Janet Woollard and her family in WA I’m the last few years she is not likely to be putting herself up for election again any time soon! even in Queensland. Not nearly far enough away.

Well, less rusted-on voters and more people actually trying, at least on some level, to choose a candidate based on the issues (or what they think the issues are) is something I can definitely live with.

Well, less rusted-on voters and more people actually trying, at least on some level, to choose a candidate based on the issues (or what they think the issues are) is something I can definitely live with.

Sadly, I don’t think that’s happening. I think there is a a declining belief in the efficacy of democratic politics and therefore a declining interest in politics generally. As well both the traditional working class and the traditional small-farmer class are rapidly disappearing.

Sadly, I don’t think that’s happening. I think there is a a declining belief in the efficacy of democratic politics

Well, in that case, they are (unfortunately) not far from the truth. The stench of self-serving corruption of the ruling class is beginning to get the common folk’s ire (and both major parties are guilty of this).

Ah, what I wouldn’t give for a proper grass-roots social democratic movement without the baggage associated with the Greens (and other minor leftist parties), or that associated with Labor and the union movement.

Ah, what I wouldn’t give for a proper grass-roots social democratic movement without the baggage associated with the Greens (and other minor leftist parties), or that associated with Labor and the union movement.

If you check back you’ll see my original comment followed on from deblonay and was to a person who runs away from the truth but repeatedly slurs others.

You, and you alone, chose to buy into my question to that person whose name is pronounced “sin jin” and decided to trivialise a very important issue which I had no intention of continuing on until you added your comments.

Those comments at no time displayed any of the “Well I have a great deal of knowledge about it, so don’t provoke me” persona you now come out with.

If anything, to me your comments were quite childish – but you chose to add them in this Redcliffe discussion.

Hi vic, confessions & outside left!
Going well. Enjoying the smell of karma in the morning up here at Xanadu on the NSW Central Coast.
Still writing, in case you hadn’t heard. Migs at AIMN has adopted this stray. I said to him, ‘Are you sure you can handle the Helen Razer of the middle-aged blogging set?’ and he said, “Sure thing!”

Anyway, patiently waiting for the truth to come out about other Central Coast Liberals with links to the 3 State Liberal MPs. Say no more, say no more.

About this blog

William Bowe is a doctoral candidate with the University of Western Australia’s Discipline of Political Science and International Relations. He has been running the electoral studies blog The Poll Bludger since January 2004, independently until September 2008 and thereafter with Crikey.