President Obama is starting to sweat. What else explains his aboutface from “this election is not a referendum on my policies” to pleading with Black and Latino voters that they have to get out and vote for Democrats on Tuesday or his legislative agenda is going to go up in smoke. Obama begged for votes on Al Sharpton’s radio program and he had this to say on a Los Angeles radio program: “[I]f Latinos sit out the election instead of saying, we’re gonna punish our enemies and we’re gonna reward our friends who stand with us on issues that are important to us, if they don’t see that kind of upsurge in voting in this election, then I think it’s gonna be harder and that’s why I think it’s so important that people focus on voting on November 2.”

Thing is that there are all kinds of reasons why voter turnout by these groups is unlikely to be as high as two years ago. First, blacks who voted for the first time in 2008 aren’t likely to have the same enthusiasm for getting to the polls when their man Obama isn’t on the ballot. Next, fewer people vote in mid-term elections. At a Republican phone bank in Pennsylvania a party operative explained to me that even when you have pilkely voters telling their party that they will get out and vote, you only get 85 percent turnout, and that is among those who are active, registered party loyalists.

Finally, there’s the Latino vote which right now is a big question mark. As Obama’s Latino interviewer put it, many in the Hispanic community are disappointed or downright mad at the president and Democrats for failing to push immigration reform as hard as healthcare. Besides that frustration, the Center for Immigration Studies points out that Latino votoer turnout is usually limited and this year may not be any different. “Based on past patterns, we project that Hispanics will comprise 6.8 percent of the electorate in November 2010. This is a reduction from 7.4 percent in the 2008 presidential election, but is an increase from 5.8 percent in the last off-year election in 2006,” reports the CIS study.

So blacks may not get out and vote and Latinos may not get out and vote. Perhaps Obama should have made his life easier by focusing sooner on those who will be voting, namely Democrats more significantly independents, who could have handed the president an easy mid-term cycle, if only he’s pursued policies they agreed with.