MLB Stacking To Win It: 7-5-18

Stacking has been a popular way to bring down tournaments, and some stacks are even cash game viable. We offer three free top stacks of the night and will provide stacks in a wide range of price tags. We do want to make it known that stacks in Colorado are often fairly obvious and popular stacks. We don't feel the need to break down Colorado stacks and will be more focused on other stacking options. Unless we are struggling to find three others, Colorado stacks will be a top choice but not broken down. We tend to look at park factors, Vegas numbers, starting pitcher and bullpen numbers, and various offensive stats. Feel free to shoot us questions on Twitter at @BrentHeiden1, @JGuilbault11, and @dfcafe.

Arizona Diamondbacks (5) vs. Eric Lauer (L)

SP Splits (2018)

wOBA Allowed

FB%

ISO

K%

BB%

Hard% Allowed

Vs. LHB

.332

35.6%

.132

12.1%

8.6%

34.8%

Vs. RHB

.384

34.2%

.189

20.4%

9.6%

41.6%

Eric Lauer has strong together some decent starts, but gets an Arizona team that can lineup some good right-handed bats against him. He is a flyball pitcher, and while Chase Field doesn't hold the hitter's park tag it used to, this is still a spot where XBH and HR can come into play. Lauer is a low strikeout arm, and has allowed a 1.45 HR/9 this season. Lauer is still a relatively young arm, and was picked in the first round, but has yet to show any success in the bigs. Despite a 2.76 ERA in June, he had a 4.28 xFIP, and allowed a 40% hard-contact rate. Lauer relies on a low velocity fastball (90mph) that he throws 60% of the time, and then a cutter 26% of the time. Give me all the Diamondbacks against the non offspeed pitches. He only throws a changeup and curveball 13% of the time. Paul Goldschmidt has a .555 wOBA and .466 ISO against this fastball range, with a 57% hard-contact rate. Goldy also hits cutters well with a 43% hard-contact rate and .409 wOBA. Despite the lefty on lefty matchups, both Jake Lamb and David Peralta have over a .200 ISO and 38% hard-contact rate against this fastball range. Lauer has struggled with lefties as well, and the hard-contact is there. Ketel Marte has a .402 wOBA and .203 ISO against the pitch, and a 92% contact rate. John Ryan Murphy has a .298 ISO and .383 wOBA off lefties this season, and a .350 ISO against his fastball range. A.J. Pollock is back off the DL and has a .439 wOBA and .289 ISO against this fastball range.

San Francisco Giants (4) vs. Luke Weaver (R)

SP Splits (2018)

wOBA Allowed

FB%

ISO

K%

BB%

Hard% Allowed

Vs. LHB

.377

35.7%

.189

18.2%

9.6%

37.6%

Vs. RHB

.293

35.1%

.126

23%

7.7%

34.3%

San Francisco is a sneaky stack tonight, and will go overlooked against Luke Weaver, despite Weaver coming off a horrible June month. He had a 6.75 ERA, allowing six home runs, and a .394 wOBA. His hard-contact rate also jumped over 40% for the first time in a month this season. Weaver has mainly struggled with lefties this season, and that presents a handful of Giants options. While the park is a downgrade for offenses, the Giants have actually been better at home, and ownership will reflect because of the ballpark. Weaver relies on a 93mph fastball 56% of the time, then goes to his changeup 25% of the time. He will work in a curveball 12% of the time, but hitters have a .412 wOBA, .244 ISO, and 50% hard-contact rate against the pitch. Brandon Belt is the first lefty to start off with, and against that range of fastballs has a .378 wOBA and .229 ISO. Belt also hits changeups well with a .368 wOBA and .206 ISO. Alen Henson has been a sneaky upside play for the Giants lately, and while it is a small sample size, he has a .483 wOBA and .375 ISO against this range of fastballs. Andrew McCutchen isn't a lefty, but does have a 41% hard-contact and .462 xwOBA against this fastball range. His numbers should be much better than they are this season, but playing in the NL West is going to hurt some.

Minnesota Twins (5) vs. Andrew Cashner (R)

SP Splits (2018)

wOBA Allowed

FB%

ISO

K%

BB%

Hard% Allowed

Vs. LHB

.349

41.9%

.237

23.5%

10.2%

28.9%

Vs. RHB

.379

29.9%

.188

13.2%

10.3%

33.1%

Andrew Cashner allows more ISO production and flyballs to left-handed bats, which is why the Twins lineup stands out today. The Twins have underperformed this season, but offer up some bats from the left side against Cashner. We are at the point where stacking against Cashner and using Twins is considered contrarian outside of one or two names. Cashner throws a sinker 38% of the time, while using his four seem 25% of the time. He is averaging about 93mph on his fastball this season, and there are a few bats that do standout against it, alongside his sinker. Against this range of fastball, Joe Mauer has a .406 wOBA and 46% hard-contact rate against it. While Mauer isn't much of a DFS favorite, you can opt to use the more boom or bust Logan Morrison who has a .186 ISO against right-handers this season. Eddie Rosario has a .397 wOBA and .200 ISO against this range of fastball, and has been one of the better Twins bats on the year. He has a .284 ISO and .417 wOBA off right-handers. Brian Dozier has a .477 wOBA and .437 ISO against this range, and his infield partner has a .348 wOBA and .302 ISO against the pitch. I am talking about Eduardo Escobar. Max Kepler hasn't done much against right-handers this season, but has a .370 wOBA and .189 ISO against 93mph fastballs. Each name here also has over a .350 wOBA and over a 35% hard-contact rate against sinkers. Jorge Polanco has rejoined the team, and has a .360 wOBA and .170 ISO against the pitch. Polanco has missed time due to suspension, but has a huge fantasy play in the second half of last season.