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Tuesday's election results might depend on voter turnout

Emily Gore holds her son Emmett Gore, two, while voting at Clarke Central High School in Athens, Ga., Tuesday, July 31, 2012. (AJ Reynolds/Staff)

ATLANTA | Anyone wishing a bigger say in government should vote Tuesday since signs of an unusually low turnout suggest every vote cast might carry more meaningful consequences.

“We are closing in on what appears likely to be a very weak, or low-voter-turnout primary on May 20,” said pollster Matt Towery, CEO of InsiderAdvantage. “We are now thinking that the actual vote on Tuesday could be at least 100,000 votes fewer than it was in the GOP primary of 2010, which was our last midterm and gubernatorial cycle.”

Early expectations are for an about a 16-percent voter turnout, which is less than half of the likely turnout in November.

The Republicans have contested races for U.S. senator, governor, superintendent of schools, public-service commissioner, congress in districts like the 1st, 10th and 12th, and a handful of legislative districts.

Democrats’ main decisions are for Senate, insurance commissioner, superintendent and secretary of state. Since the heaviest advertising has been for the GOP Senate race, that’s drawing the most voters. In early voting, two of every three ballots cast were in the Republican primary.

That doesn’t necessarily mean Republicans will dominate in the general election because the Democratic governor’s race isn’t contested and their Senate primary is so lopsided in favor of Michelle Nunn that many Democrats may see little reason to bother voting.

On the other hand, heated mayoral races in Athens, Augusta and Columbus are driving turnout. As a result, Muscogee and Richmond were two of the five top counties in terms of early voting turnout. Already 8,500 people have voted in Columbus and 7,100 in Augusta, according to the Secretary of State’s Office, which didn’t release the Clarke County figures.

Candidates are doing what they can in the remaining hours to spur turnout. Most spent the weekend bouncing from one rally to another, and the statewide contenders who have the money will zoom around Georgia by plane on Monday. All the while, they are airing TV ads, sending mailers and having volunteers and machines call supporters.

“(GOP Senate candidate) Karen Handel clearly has the most targeted get-out-the-vote effort,” Towery said. “Her use of social media and automated phone calls to her base could give her an extra point or two in the final vote count. (Rival Jack) Kingston has turned around his TV ad campaign, running stronger ads and taking on (businessman David) Perdue. And Perdue is now attacking Kingston as well.”

However, those in the U.S. House of Representatives like Kingston may be in Washington on Election Day instead of campaigning because of a vote on legislation key to deepening the shipping channel in the Savannah River, one of the state’s largest economic-development projects. Kingston has already announced he will be there.

“Getting this project underway is a key part of Kingston’s pro-growth, pro-jobs record that earned the endorsement of the U.S. Chamber of Commerce,” said Kingston’s campaign spokesman Chris Crawford. “Jack Kingston will stand with the 352,000 Georgians whose jobs rely on our ports and proudly cast his vote on Tuesday.”

Other members of the congressional delegation are hoping the vote on the bill will be rescheduled.

Follow Walter Jones on Twitter @MorrisNews and Facebook or contact him at walter.jones@morris.com.