Tag Archives: cancellation

It’s the start of the new TV season, and time to predict the survival outcome for all the new shows. Last year I made it to almost 80%, which I was particularly happy with…I do two predictions — one based on just the description, and an updated one after I have watched the premieres. Most of the time, there’s no change between the two. 🙂 Let’s see how I do this year…

Way back at the start of the television season, I tried to predict the success factor for all the new shows as to whether or not they were likely to get renewal for a second season. Let’s see how I did…

The first group were the ones I predicted renewal for, and there were 12.

ABC: The Good Doctor – Predicted RENEWED and outcome is RENEWED

ABC: The Mayor – Predicted RENEWED and outcome is CANCELLED — after watching one EP, it was pretty clear it would be cancelled though

So I got 8/12 right. Much better than I did last year (where it was more 50/50). If I had waited to watch the first few EPs before I predicted, I would have at least went to 10/12 right…I never watched Champions or Rise.

The second group of shows were ones where I was predicting cancellation, with 16 predicted to circle the drain. Again, let’s see how I did:

ABC: Kevin (Probably) Saves the World (formerly The Gospel of Kevin) – Predicted CANCELLED and outcome is CANCELLED

ABC: Ten Days in the Valley – Predicted CANCELLED and outcome is CANCELLED

CBS: 9JKL – Predicted CANCELLED and outcome is CANCELLED

BS: Me, Myself and I – Predicted CANCELLED and outcome is CANCELLED

BS: Seal Team – Predicted CANCELLED and outcome is RENEWED

CBS: Wisdom of the Crowd – Predicted CANCELLED and outcome is CANCELLED

Of the 15 where the outcome is mostly known, I only got 10 right (2/3). However, for at least two more of the “wrong ones” i.e. ones that were renewed, others were surprised by those renewal notes since the ratings kind of sucked. Which means I was right about the ratings, but they got renewed anyway. Weird. That would have taken me to 12/15 or 80%.

Overall I have 8+10 = 18 out of 27, or 2/3. If I adjusted for the actual shows and ignoring surprises, I would have had closer to 22/27 or 80%.

Every year, at the start of the TV season, I try to predict the outcome of the new shows. And I post my predictions for what they’re worth, knowing sometimes I go as low as 50% right and 50% wrong! Mostly because I don’t take into account differences between networks and other factors, I just go by quality or basic delivery on a viable show premise.

This year, I tried to improve my predictions with a bit more business model consideration:

However, I think the following shows are unlikely to find their groove:

ABC: Kevin (Probably) Saves the World (formerly The Gospel of Kevin) – It has a Touched By An Angel feel, and there’s a demographic out there that might like it, but not enough to save it, and not at 10:00 at night – CANCELLED;

ABC: Ten Days in the Valley – Oooh, a missing child with a mystery. How many movie cliches can you pack into a new show that isn’t owned by ABC? Bye bye, don’t let the ratings guillotine hit you on the way down – CANCELLED;

CBS: 9JKL – I love the main star, and everyone wants their family sitcom to work, but not this one about moving to New York and living between parents and siblings – CANCELLED;

CBS: Me, Myself and I – The time stamp world of three different times in one’s life sounds intriguing, and I love John Larroquette, but doesn’t look like it will gel quickly – CANCELLED;

CBS: Seal Team – It was a toss up with S.W.A.T., but I’m not convinced David B is right for the series – CANCELLED;

CBS: Wisdom of the Crowd – Tech approaches to crime fighting, similar to a dozen other shows that have tried and failed to merge the two in the last five or six years – CANCELLED;

CW: Dynasty – while the reboot year is upon us, the CW runs young, and I don’t think they’re ready for Melrose Place without a 90210-like lead up, the various ages of the characters won’t pull them in – CANCELLED;

CW: Life Sentence – YOLO might be a great premise that died last year with No Tomorrow ON THE SAME NETWORK, HELLO, but living with the consequences just seems too hokey a premise for the “oops you’re not dying” basis for the show – CANCELLED;

CW: Valor – I would like to leave this one on the list as making it, and if it wasn’t the CW, I’d put it ahead of Black Lightning, with a serialized story about a failed copter mission in Somalia and flashbacks, could be great – CANCELLED;

Last year, of 15 scripted shows, the CW cancelled 4 and renewed 11. The big challenge though is that CW renewals are as much about business models with the two invested co-companies as they are about ratings. Of the 4 cancellations, two were true newbies, the other two were ending shows. Of the 11 that stayed, only 1 was a newbie (Riverdale). Let’s see how that informs my approach this year.

Returning shows that I think are safe for renewal:

Supergirl

The Flash

Arrow

DC’s Legends of Tomorrow

Riverdale

Supernatural

Crazy Ex-GF

Jane the Virgin

The 100

iZombie

The Originals

Returning shows I think will be cancelled:

n/a, I think the core will stay the same;

New shows that I think will make it:

Black Lightning – It’s all Berlanti, all the time, it would be crazy to bet against it, even without the Arrowverse tie-ins;

New shows that I think will get cancelled:

Dynasty – while the reboot year is upon us, the CW runs young, and I don’t think they’re ready for Melrose Place without a 90210-like lead up, the various ages of the characters won’t pull them in;

Life Sentence – YOLO might be a great premise that died last year with No Tomorrow ON THE SAME NETWORK, HELLO, but living with the consequences just seems too hokey a premise for the “oops you’re not dying” basis for the show;

Valor – I would like to leave this one on the list as making it, and if it wasn’t the CW, I’d put it ahead of Black Lightning, with a serialized story about a failed copter mission in Somalia and flashbacks, could be great;

Last year, of 26 scripted shows, CBS cancelled 8 and renewed 18. However, of the 8 cancelled, 7 were new shows. Brutal. In other words, they cancelled only 1 of their pre-existing shows. Of the 18 renewals, only 2-3 were newbies; the rest were roll-overs. So, looking at CBS for this year, I want to try and take that approach into account — most existing shows are likely to make it, few newbies.

Returning shows that I think are safe for renewal:

The Big Bang Theory

Scorpion

NCIS

NCIS: New Orleans

NCIS: Los Angeles

Madam Secretary

Bull

Blue Bloods

Kevin Can Wait

Superior Donuts

Criminal Minds

Returning shows I think will be cancelled:

Hawaii Five-O – it has to die sometime;

MacGyver – I was sure it would die last year and didn’t;

New shows that I think will make it:

Young Sheldon – well, duh, it could die a 1000 times and it will likely get renewed just to keep tweaking it until it works;

S.W.A.T. – With H50 and MacGyver not strong enough to continue in my view, I’m going to bet on another throwback continuing with this one;

New shows that I think will get cancelled:

9JKL – I love the main star, and everyone wants their family sitcom to work, but not this one about moving to New York and living between parents and siblings;

Me, Myself and I – The time stamp world of three different times in one’s life sounds intriguing, and I love John Larroquette, but doesn’t look like it will gel quickly;

Seal Team – It was a toss up with S.W.A.T., but I’m not convinced David B is right for the series;

Wisdom of the Crowd – Tech approaches to crime fighting, similar to a dozen other shows that have tried and failed to merge the two in the last five or six years;

Every year, at the start of the TV season, I try to predict the outcome of the new shows — renewal for another season, or cancellation. However, I must admit, my approach has lacked a fair amount of finesse as I generally went by whether the show was worth keeping, absent any consideration of the network’s ability to cancel everything bad and only keep good stuff.

Take ABC for instance. Last year, of 24 scripted shows, they cancelled 10 and renewed 14. However, of the 10 cancelled, only 4 were new shows. In other words, they cancelled 6 of their pre-existing shows. Of the 14 renewals, only 3 were newbies; the rest were roll-overs. So, looking at ABC for this year, I want to try and take that approach into account.

Returning shows that I think are safe for renewal:

The Middle

Black-ish

The Goldbergs

Speechless

Modern Family

American Housewife

Designated Survivor

Grey’s Anatomy

Scandal

Returning shows I think will be cancelled:

Fresh Off The Boat

How to Get Away With Murder – I’m taking a flyer on this one, finishing season 4 and then dying, particularly with the new Shondaland theme park over at Netflix;

Once Upon A Time – Too many changes, too many departures, too much cost cutting to be viable, time to end;

New shows that I think will make it:

The Good Doctor – Think “House” meets “Rainman”, and while I wouldn’t bet the farm on it’s renewal, it’s an in-house co-production;

The Mayor – rapper pulls prank to get noticed, gets elected…normally I would say cancel, but also in-house for ABC with other producers they’re already in bed with;

Marvel’s Inhumans – ABC really wants to be in the superhero game, and this is what they have to work with;

New shows that I think will get cancelled:

Kevin (Probably) Saves the World (formerly The Gospel of Kevin) – It has a Touched By An Angel feel, and there’s a demographic out there that might like it, but not enough to save it, and not at 10:00 at night.

Ten Days in the Valley – Oooh, a missing child with a mystery. How many movie cliches can you pack into a new show that isn’t owned by ABC? Bye bye, don’t let the ratings guillotine hit you on the way down;

That’s all I have for their premiere list so far…let’s see how I do. I should be honest too in my own evaluation — only the ones in red are ones that I watch or will give a chance to in my watching.

Every year, at the start of the TV season, I try to predict the outcome of the new shows — renewal for another season, or cancellation. Let’s see how I did this past year…Of the shows I picked for renewal:

Which basically means I was 50/50 for the shows I thought would get renewed but didn’t.

Of the shows I picked for cancellation:

Correct: APB, Blacklist: Redemption, Conviction, Frequency, Great Indoors, Imaginary Mary, Making History, No Tomorrow, Pitch, Notorious, Pure Genius, Shots Fired, Son of Zorn, Time After Time, Training Day

Heck, I could have probably done just as well or better assuming they would all be cancelled. Good thing I don’t do this for a living!

Overall, there were:

Ten shows cancelled by ABC, and I won’t miss any of them;

Eight shows cancelled by CBS, and I won’t miss any of them;

Four shows cancelled by CW, and I won’t miss any of them;

Nine shows cancelled by Fox, including Rosewood, which never found it’s groove, and Pitch + Sleepy Hollow, no great losses; and,

Four shows cancelled by NBC, including Grimm and BlackList: Redemption, but both were ready to go;

For renewals:

Fourteen shows were renewed by ABC, none of which I watch regularly, and only SHIELD / Designated Survivor / Quantico on catch-up eventually;

Eighteen shows were renewed by NBC, and it makes a big difference for me — Blue Bloods, Bull, Elementary, NCIS are all ones I watch the same week, and Scorpion and Big Bang Theory I bingewatch to catch up;

Eleven shows were renewed by CW, including Arrow, DC Legends, Supergirl, and The Flash, all of which I watch same week;

Thirteen shows were renewed by Fox, and I like two of them a lot — Gotham and Lucifer; and,

Fourteen shows were renewed by NBC, including Blindspot, The Blacklist, and Timeless.

Nothing cancelled that I really cared about, and 18 that I do like were renewed. Not a bad outcome…

As I’ve mentioned a few times, I love serialised story-telling whether in book form or television or movies. I like to see characters develop, and to visit them in different scenarios. Which is a rationalization perhaps of why I like to watch TV, other than the fact I just enjoy it. But, as the year passes the mid-way point, the pundits start guessing who’s going to get cancelled (boo! hiss!) or renewed (yay!). Usually, I’m in agreement with most of the cancellations for new comedies, most of which I gave up on after one or two episodes. Dramas I’m more hit and miss on as networks often don’t let them last enough for me to decide if I’m in or out — my “on the bubble” period is a lot longer than networks who are paying for them.

Today, I wandered by the TvByTheNumbers site to check out how my shows are doing…and was pleasantly surprised!

I had very little interest after episode 1 in 666 Park Avenue, Last Resort, Made In Jersey (lasted ten minutes), or Partners, all of which were cancelled. I think there was something “there” for The Mob Doctor but not enough to keep watching it. I tuned in, I tuned out, I tuned in, I tuned out.

Today, Don’t Trust the Bitch in Apartment 23 and Ben and Kate seem to be as close to formally cancelled as you can get without a press release containing the words cancelled, and I never liked either one. Happy Endings, Guys With Kids, and Up All Night are all listed as Likely to be Cancelled, and I couldn’t agree more. CSI: NY is a bit long in the tooth, and while I liked Gary Sinise, I can’t take him every week. I didn’t get excited about Vegas, but not surprised it’s not likely to continue.

The “on the bubble” list has almost nothing I care about — Last Man Standing, Malibu Country, Cleveland Show, the Good Wife, 90210, the new Carrie Diaries, Hart of Dixie, Mindy Project, Beauty and the Beast, 1600 Penn (please kill this!), the New Normal, and Whitney (whose acting reminds me of The Nanny without the voice). I kind of fell out of routine with Nikita and it started back up without me even noticing it in the PVR guide, too confused storylines now. Deception lasted one episode for me, although I liked the premise. My only concern is The Mentalist, and while other sites suggest it is near certain for renewal, the series could close soon without a great loss, they just need to wrap up the Red John story (and a lot of those final pieces are already in place, if needed).

Some of the shows I like that are expected to be renewed are Castle, Revenge (no, I don’t know why I’m still watching some parts of it), Elementary (loving it!), Once Upon A Time, Blue Bloods, Person of Interest, Arrow, Grimm and Revolution (a nice surprise!). The Big Bang Theory is a no-brainer for renewal (already renewed!), but I’m surprised NCIS and NCIS: LA are still listed as certain renewal, given that NCIS has some pieces in place that would allow them to wrap and NCIS: LA has been a bit stale of late.

I won’t miss Fringe as I didn’t even watch this season…I watched up until the end of last year, but the parallel work together was a step too far for me, and when they went to Watchers controlling the future, I was lost.

Way too soon for some other shows, but I’m loving Showcase for a lot of short-season shows (Continuum, Suits, Rizzoli, Lost Girl, Covert Affairs, etc.).