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46 days forecast (ECMWF)

The ECMWF 46 day forecast system is comprised of a series of ensemble members, each of which starts out with slightly different initial conditions to produce slightly different forecast outcomes. By comparing all the forecast outcomes, you can get a sense of what the weather will most likely do in the coming weeks. Note that while forecast data is available up to 46 days in advance, the longer range forecasts will be substantially less accurate as the lead time increases. While the ensemble system may be able to pick up a period of warmer or cooler than normal temperatures 3+ weeks from now, they won't be able to nail down with precision particular storm threats until around 1 week out, when other higher resolution models will become more accurate. This ensemble system is primarily useful for evaluating long term temperature trends.

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