Happy New Year! AlbertaPolitics.ca’s Top Ten political predictions for 2017

PHOTOS: Your blogger, in hat, contemplates the difference between the renamed Conservative Party of Alberta and the renamed Conservative Party of Alberta. That’s not a typo. See Prediction No. 9 below for an explanation. Actual Alberta political commentators may not appear exactly as illustrated in this screenshot. Below (with predictions): Former Progressive Conservative MLA Sandra Jansen (she will join Premier Rachel Notley’s cabinet); B.C. Premier Christy Clark (she will again defy pollsters and win a third term); economic nutcase Maxime Bernier (he will beat better and more sensible candidates to lead the federal Conservatives).

Jason Kenney will win the leadership of the Alberta Progressive Conservative Party on the first ballot in Calgary on March 18. The PC Party is not doomed, however, despite Mr. Kenney’s plan to dismantle it and merge it with the Wildrose Opposition, because many Wildrosers will be unconvinced by his rhetoric and that of his backers that resistance is futile.

World oil prices will rise more than expected in 2017 … but not enough more to usher back the out-of-control boom so many Albertans long for – leaders of the two principal Opposition parties excepted, of course.

Despite several polls predicting an NDP victory in British Columbia, Liberal Christy Clark will surprise everyone and win a third term as premier of B.C. during the provincial election scheduled for May 9, 2017.

Alberta NDP Premier Rachel Notley will reshuffle her cabinet early in the New Year and invite former Calgary Tory MLA Sandra Jansen to join. The NDP will continue to gain traction for its policies and see modest growth in its popularity for this effort.

U.S. President Donald Trump will commit the first of the unconstitutional and/or criminal acts that will lead to his impeachment in 2019.

To both federal Opposition parties’ distress, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau will remain stubbornly popular with voters in all parts of Canada, even here in Alberta after work commences on the Trans Mountain Pipeline and Line 3 expansions.

Neither the Wildrose nor the PC Opposition parties will break out of their approximate tie in the polls, with all three major parties sitting around 30 per cent through most of 2017. However, Wildrose Leader Brian Jean will remain slightly more popular with conservative voters than Mr. Kenney.

Both the Wildrose Party, which will act first, and the PC Party will try to change their names to “Conservative Party of Alberta” or something similar. Both, especially the Wildrosers, will encounter resistance from Elections Alberta. If they fail, both will then try to call themselves the Unity Party. Both will reject your blogger’s suggestion they rename their parties Thing 1 and Thing 2.

Given their choice among 13 candidates, including an anti-abortion crusader (Brad Trost), two overt alt-right trolls (Kellie Leitch and Chris Alexander), an economic nutcase (Maxime Bernier) and a distinguished Parliamentarian around whom Canadians could rally with enthusiasm (Michael Chong), federal Conservatives will choose the economic nutcase.

Readers are welcome to take note and write in December 2017 to remind me of how many of these predictions I got wrong.

16 Comments to: Happy New Year! AlbertaPolitics.ca’s Top Ten political predictions for 2017

John Clark

Lorne Finlayson

January 1st, 2017

Those polls that show the BC NDP leading the Christy Clark right wing Liberals remind us of the same polls back in 2013, when Ms. Clark decimated the lack lustre NDP. She’ll do it again, as the NDP have an incredible ability to lose elections. They simply do not fight, but sit back and have the floor wiped with their gutless approach to elections. Many ex-NDPers, like me, think it is a deliberate policy of the drones in the parties Burnaby headquarters who are too lazy to support a true battle against what has to be one of the most corrupt regimes in present day Canada. The Feds have a $1500 limit on fund raising gatherings while Christy smoozes to the tune of $20,000. It goes on, but once more the NDP will dance to Ms. Clark’s tune and she’ll wipe the floor with Horgan and company. BC voters see little reason to support the NDP, and that will continue.

Anne Peterson

Jan Johnstone

January 1st, 2017

“Despite several polls predicting an NDP victory in British Columbia, Liberal Christy Clark will surprise everyone and win a third term as premier of B.C. during the provincial election scheduled for May 9, 2017.”

Lorne Finlayson

January 2nd, 2017

We can only hope, but hope is all we have with this lacklustre, idea challenged, in the clutches of a useless bureaucracy in its Burnaby headquarters back scratchers. The BC NDP have run out of steam,out of touch with their membership whose sole reason is to supply money to the pathetic machine that brings nothing for BCers but just whines to be send more and more dollars. After the 2005 debacle and 33 years sending them money, even I had enough. It is time for the present NDP to just collapse and a new progressive coalition to form. What it becomes should be the choice of the membership, not the useless MLAs or their bosses in Burnaby.

Derry McDonell

Val

January 1st, 2017

as for federal NDP leadership, well at moment they looks dull and glum (as in fact all other major political parties of Canada) and don’t have inheritance from the past similar to liberal’s Trudeau dynasty, to capitalize on it and change present status quo.

reshuffling for local NDP comes too late and will won’t do, what is Ms. Notley expects.
too big mistakes was done at beginning. too minuscule steps beneficial to compensate harm was done to majority of albertans,. NDP come to power on the wave of provincial “rebellion”. perhaps we will see another one “rebelion” but this time against NDP. 2017 will be crucial for NDP government. Ms. Notley still have the time and chance to break the upcoming event but i doubt she will.

i would personally prefer that Trump better remain as a “star” on “the Apprentice” but Arnold “Terminator” had become president, if there no other choices. at least last one has a sense of humor and seems like characteristics of very well organized and stable person.
nevertheless, let’s hope with all his negative sides, Trump at least still has his instinct of self-preservation and will be at some point open for reasonable suggestions from all, now harshly divided, sides. too many weaponry on the hands in country and rough/uncareful move quite easy can trigger tendency in exchange between opponents from words to bullets.
as for your prediction of future impeachment, i guess you went to far. in worst case scenario for Trump, he will be one term president and in 2020 will be replaced by democrats if those will be able to find some bright and smart personality among themselves.

jerrymacgp

January 2nd, 2017

“Ahnold” couldn’t have run for President, as he is not a natural-born US citizen (he was born in Austria). As for Trump, his narcissism and impulsiveness will be his undoing; let us all hope it doesn’t end up being all of ours as well…

TC

Just a bit of fact-checking… Being born in Austria isn’t the reason that Arnold Schwarzenegger is ineligible to become US President. It’s because he doesn’t have a parent who’s an US citizen.

US immigration law defines “natural-born” citizens as having at least one parent who’s US citizen, regardless of the place of birth. This is why Senator John McCain (born in the Panama Canal Zone, no longer US territory), and Senator Ted Cruz (born Calgary, AB) are eligible to become US President.

TC

January 2nd, 2017

Two of your predictions come to mind:

One, as a British Columbian, I think the BC Liberals’ victory in May will be hardly a surprise. I think the BCNDP (and the Federal ones) needs to decide whether they want to be ideologically pure or want to govern. Hate to say it, but you have to be in power to make your mark.

Two, I’m in the opinion that Donald Trump will run into impeachment trouble in his presidency. I simply can’t pinpoint it to which particular issue may be. However, 2019 sounds like a good date, after the Midterm Elections in Nov 2018, but it has to be so bad, that even the Republicans won’t/can’t defend him.

TC

January 2nd, 2017

Just another point on President Trump. It’s my wish that he does serve a full term, because Americans (especially those who voted for him or didn’t bother to vote) to bear the full consequences of putting him in office. Most importantly, you’ve to give Trump a chance to govern for his supporters to realize that most of his policies won’t work.

SC

January 9th, 2017

BC Liberals will likely win. As a centrist liberal, I’d like to see a Trudeau-friendly voice in BC.
DJT won’t complete a full 4-yr term (unless he underwent a frontal lobotomy or something similar). He’d be the Rob Ford of US politics.
Everything else will be ho-hum.
Happy New year!

Ptooir

David Bridger

January 2nd, 2018

Mulcair could still be the federal NDP leader if he had been a progressive in the 2015 federal election.

I sent him a letter in August 2014 telling him not to move to the centre right because that is Liberal Party territory and if he did voters would vote for the real thing (Liberals). Sadly since I am no one of significance he did just that and opened the door for the ever opportunistic Liberals and blew the NDP’s best chance to form the federal government. Incidentally he replied to my letter a full year later and his reply never mentioned anything in my letter other than thanking me for communicating.