SEC betting preview – Alabama favored for three-peat

Who will stop the Tide?

Despite losing nine starters to the NFL, Alabama is a big 4-to-5 favorite to win its third straight Southeastern Conference crown and a 5-to-2 favorite to claim its third straight BCS national championship.

Although the Crimson Tide opens with Virginia Tech and Texas A&M, they don't have to play any of the "Big Three" from the SEC East. Georgia must get back to Atlanta to avenge its thrilling 32-28 loss to Alabama in the 2012 SEC Championship Game.

"Oh, yeah, that would be nice," senior defensive end Garrison Smith told the Athens Banner-Herald. "At the same time, it doesn't matter who we play. If we make it to that point, whether it's Alabama or Ole Miss or LSU or Mississippi State, it doesn't matter."

Led by senior quarterback Aaron Murray, who’s thrown for 95 touchdowns and more than 10,000 yards, the Bulldogs are 4-to-1 to win the conference at the LVH SuperBook. South Carolina (6-to-1), Florida (8-to-1) and Texas A&M (8-to-1), LSU (10-to-1) and Ole Miss (25-to-1) also are contenders.

But everyone is chasing Alabama.

"It's like Coach (Nick) Saban always says, 'We created this beast, so you don't complain about it,'" said senior quarterback A.J. McCarron, 25-2 as a starter. "We set the standard this high. I think it brings the best out of you as a player and as a person on and off the field. You have to carry yourself with that much more pride.

"It doesn't matter if you’re on the field or off of it. Everybody's gunning to beat us, and everybody's watching us. All eyes are on us at all times. It’s one of the best things about playing here. Everybody expects greatness."

Last season's best ATS teams

Ole Miss: 10-3 ATS (7-6 SU), Vanderbilt: 9-4 ATS (9-4 SU)

The Rebels return 19 starters from a team that snapped a 16-game losing skid in SEC play and won a bowl for the first time since 2009. Excitement couldn't be higher in Oxford. Miss. Although Ole Miss won't sneak up on anyone this year, the Rebels could post a better record. They avoid the top three teams in the SEC East and host LSU and Texas A&M.

Ole Miss opens at Vanderbilt, which is coming off its first nine-win season since 1915. Repeating that success will be much harder for the Commodores, who must replace quarterback Jordan Rodgers and running back Zac Stacy.

But each coach knows how to surpass expectations and ranks in the top five against the spread among active coaches. Ole Miss' Hugh Freeze is 20-6 ATS; Vanderbilt's James Franklin 18-8 ATS.

"With all due respect, I didn't come here to be great in three years," Bielema told Newsday.

The running game should be strong, and senior end Chris Smith (9.5 sacks in 2012) leads a veteran defensive front. But the Razorbacks face a brutal four-game stretch Sept. 28-Oct. 19 (vs. Texas A&M, at Florida, vs. South Carolina, at Alabama). They'll struggle to finish higher than fifth in the stacked SEC West.

Of the other new coaches – Tennessee's Butch Jones, Auburn's Gus Malzahn and Kentucky's Mark Stoops-- Jones inherits the best situation. Running backs Marlin Lane and Rajion Neal will find holes behind one of the nation’s top offensive lines. New defensive coordinator John Jancek has a lot to work with, starting with massive defensive tackle Daniel McCullers.

Jones' energy is infectious. He went 50-27 in his previous two stops, winning two division titles at Central Michigan and tying for two Big East crowns at Cincinnati.

"It's about having a plan and not wavering from that plan,” Jones said in an interview with Athlon Sports. "This is not the first time we’re doing this. It’s the third.”

Trends to watch

Alabama is 12-6 ATS on the road since 2009. ... Alabama is 4-0 ATS in its last four bowls. ... The under is 4-0 the last four times Ole Miss has been a road favorite. ... The under is 6-2 the last eight times Texas A&M has been an underdog. ... The Aggies are 0-3 ATS in their last three games as a home dog. ... Arkansas is 15-7 ATS in its last 22 home games. ... South Carolina is 9-5 ATS at home the past two seasons.

Kentucky is 4-1 ATS in its last five meetings with Georgia. ... Auburn is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 games against Mississippi State. ... The over is 8-2 in the last 10 Florida-Vanderbilt games. ... The under is 6-1 in the last seven Tennessee-Vandy meetings. ... Arkansas is 2-5 ATS in its last seven games against Alabama. ...The over is 5-1 in the last six LSU-Mississippi games. ... The over is 5-2 in the last seven Missouri-Texas A&M meetings.

View from Vegas

Richie Baccellieri, one of The Linemakers on Sporting News, sees Florida and Vanderbilt failing to meet expectations.

"The Gators lost a lot on defense and I’m not sold on (Jeff) Driskel at quarterback,” Baccellieri said, adding the Gators benefitted from a plus-15 turnover margin last year that they’re not likely to duplicate.

He likes Toledo +24 in the opener in Gainesville, Fla..

"With Vanderbilt I see a big dropoff mostly because of Jordan Rodgers' departure,” Baccellieri said. “I'm going to be looking to bet against them if I have the chance."

Bettors fell in love with Ole Miss last season, and aren’t ready to jump off the bandwagon. The LVH SuperBook got a "ton" of money on the Rebels to go over 7.5 wins. The under opened as a -140 favorite and is down to -120.

Asked why the line had not moved further, sportsbook manager Ed Salmons said the action isn’t coming from market movers.