The L'Aquila verdict: Is it wrong to jail scientists for flubbing earthquake warnings?

The WeekStaff

A policeman stands in front of collapsed buildings after an earthquake in Aquila, Italy, on April 7, 2009. REUTERS/Giampiero Sposito

October 22, 2012

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An Italian court has sentenced a group of six scientists and a government official to six years in jail after finding them guilty of manslaughter because they failed to warn residents of L'Aquila, Italy, ahead of a devastating earthquake that killed 308 people in 2009. The defendants were members of a Major Risks Committee assembled to assess the potential danger of a major quake after several small tremors shook the region. The group concluded that it was impossible for them to predict whether a stronger temblor would follow, and one of the scientists famously advised locals to relax with a glass of wine — six days before the deadly quake struck. Many relatives of the dead are pleased with Monday's verdict, but members of the scientific community are aghast, arguing that nobody can predict when earthquakes will hit. Is there any justification for punishing the experts when they get it so wrong?

This could have a chilling effect: "Sadly, the issue is not 'if' but 'when' the next tremor will occur in L'Aquila," says Jonathan Amos at BBC News. Of course, scientists won't be any more able to predict the next one than they were the last one, although they can let people know the probabilities. But following this verdict, it won't be easy to get any researchers to size up the risks next time, because they'll know they could wind up behind bars if they get it wrong."L'Aquila quake: Italy scientists guilty of manslaughter"