177 comments:

Anonymous
said...

I'm on the road too, the share dropped 1% in after market, may drop more when market opens.

If we make a bid for Yhoo "again", the share may drop below $25.

With Skype and Yhoo, adding in Office, Windows Client/Live, Bing/Azure, Server/Tools, WP and XBox, people get confused, investors get confused. Microsoft board, what exactly is your strategy? Just peanut-butter Microsoft over all the creation? Eventually (if it is not already), Microsoft is into everything but good at nothing.

I'm not doing another year of this, it's not worth it anymore. In 8 years at Microsoft I've never seen so many people looking for jobs. There is no strategy or leadership. As a manager it's a joke to even talk about career planning with directs who got fucked over in calibration.

Microsoft has long kept a lot of its cash overseas, mostly in Ireland. One of the reasons why Skype looked so attractive is the fact that it's based in Europe, so Microsoft wouldn't have to repatriate its cash and pay taxes on it.

So does Microsoft have to bring any of this cash home to "pay dividends and keep the lights on" as one analyst asked on today's earnings call?

In 1997, Microsoft opened a small office in Reno, Nevada to record its software licensing revenue, about a third of its business, thereby avoiding Washington State’s half percent wholesale tax on software licensing royalties. Since then, I estimate Microsoft has earned $127 billion in profit from $460 billion in revenue avoiding the payment of $728.8 million in taxes (with interest and penalties, Microsoft’s unpaid tax bill would exceed $1 billion).

Since then, I estimate Microsoft has earned $127 billion in profit from $460 billion in revenue avoiding the payment of $728.8 million in taxes (with interest and penalties, Microsoft’s unpaid tax bill would exceed $1 billion

Steve: Let me check the ashtray in my other Bentley. Don't worry about the billions in jobs and infrastructure we've brought to the area.

"It's worth noting that the 51 billion kept offshore was earned offshore, and the taxes being avoided are importation taxes."

I would say statements like this are a bit tricky. For example say a company has 10 million in domestic revenue and 10 million in foreign revenue. And 10 million in expenses. Then they wind up with 0 domestic profit since the expenses are all/mostly counted domesticly and 10 million in foreign profits since there's no/little foreign expenses. Which isn't quite fair to the domestic government's tax collection system.

"Then they wind up with 0 domestic profit since the expenses are all/mostly counted domesticly and 10 million in foreign profits since there's no/little foreign expenses. Which isn't quite fair to the domestic government's tax collection system."

I'm certainly no accountant but don't the foreign governments take their tax cut instead? Obviously MS has decided that this cost is still less than if the profit was repatriated.

There is no strategy or leadership. As a manager it's a joke to even talk about career planning with directs who got fucked over in calibration.

I'm a lead in STB with five reports and feel the same way, particularly since BobMu was given the boot. Every IC on my team is looking for work and we meet on Friday's over lunch to discuss job leads and interview strategies. We all have families to feed and all know that sooner or later each of us will end up in the bottom 20% and out the door.

It's worth noting that the 51 billion kept offshore was earned offshore, and the taxes being avoided are importation taxes.

Well, sort of. Some foreign jurisdictions e.g. Ireland have very low corporate tax rates. Which at least partly explains why they are broke. Ireland's corporate tax rate is 12.5%, the US' is 35%. MS would need to pay the difference in rates as tax on income.

This is an interesting difference when compared to individuals. A US resident must pay tax on worldwide earnings, and receives a credit for foreign tax paid. There is no option AFAIK for an individual to park such earnings offshore for an indeterminate period.

Microsoft and others are gaming the system and helping the US spiral towards bankruptcy. Congress should put a stop to this nonsense of allowing arbitrage opportunities for profitable corporations to avoid tax that would land an individual investor/taxpayer in jail.

So Microsoft yet again proved that it's the same products (Windows and Office) carrying they company, with everything else basically flushing money down the toilet? Maybe it's time to ax all of the money losing divisions and stop wasting the shareholders' money on Bing, Windows Phone, Skype, Xbox (no matter how much the management insists otherwise, I don't believe any of the accounting on this one), or any of the other Ballmer-era disasters.

Fire SteveB, fire 80% of the employees, sit back and watch the stock goes up as profits aren't sucked up by dead weight.

"This is an interesting difference when compared to individuals. A US resident must pay tax on worldwide earnings, and receives a credit for foreign tax paid. There is no option AFAIK for an individual to park such earnings offshore for an indeterminate period."

I know this link is slightly OT, but it may prove helpful to MSFT folks whose "future is uncertain". It's an article by Peter Bregman called 'When the Future is Uncertain: Avoiding Paraylsis'. I was directed to this by Rob Donoghue of Evil Hat Games, but I think it can apply in a lot of circumstances.

Dodging taxes is nothing new, people. We'll be the direct victim of a tax dodge on January 1, 2013 when our Cadillac Health Plan goes away because it would have been a giant tax burden. The company reserves a right to make money to increase global shareholder value, even if it means using a tax loophole or stiffing the employees by making their health plan less taxable under the letter of the law.

If you're pissed a corporation is legally dodging taxes, elect new lawmakers. If you want Microsoft to pay taxes now, you can say goodbye to your job and the MAN can say goodbye to your tax revenue. Plain and simple.

"Microsoft and others are gaming the system and helping the US spiral towards bankruptcy."

The US is spiraling towards bankruptcy because even with corporate tax rates at 3x other jurisdictions, our Government has an insatiable desire to spend money beyond its means. Like you, MS is obliged to pay only what it legally owes, no more and no less. Voluntarily going beyond that would not only violate its fiduciary obligation to shareholders, but would be like giving an addict more cocaine.

"So Microsoft yet again proved that it's the same products (Windows and Office) carrying they company, with everything else basically flushing money down the toilet?"

Same three basically as what provided the profits when Steve took over in 2000 (Windows, Office, S&T). Some progress on the revenue diversification side but almost none on the profit one. And the company is still almost totally dependent on PC sales, just like it was then.

I don't agree with everything in the rest of your comment, but Steve's strategy for growth and diversification has clearly failed and he should step aside or be removed.

"Fire SteveB, fire 80% of the employees, sit back and watch the stock goes up as profits aren't sucked up by dead weight."

Yes, no, and it would be short lived if it happened at all. For the stock to go up on a sustainable basis MS has to increase confidence in its future and improve the company's overall growth rate. Both require a radical change in current strategy. Frankly, given how far behind MS is in markets that matter for the future and the threats it now faces to its core businesses, it's hard to see how the company can make the shift before incurring more consequences of previous failure.

$5.74 Billion in net profit, but the company can't continue to pay for the existing level of health benefits? $5.74 Billion, but we need to give sub-maximum bonus to all of the 2/3/4/5 ranked employees(that would be way sub-max bonus for the 5s, plus the likely demise of any pay at all)? $5.74 Billion in net profit, but for all those who were granted merely a "target" bonus (of half of the maximum available) or less, along with pervasive uncertainty as to career future for any 3/4/5 ranked, it is hard to justify any charitable giving this year, and also hard to max out the 401K. Cry me a river? No, but the affect on the household budget is real here.

$5.74 BILLION net profit is a really big number, and can also viewed in it's full-length form as $5,740,000,000. That is a lot of commas and a lot of zeros, so it may be easier if you view it as a net profit of $62,391 per employee (if you do the math with 92,000 employees as an example). Seems like enough $$$ to keep from having to decrease a currently good health plan, but maybe KT could chip back in his $1.9 million of bonus, if things are too tight. If you look at any cost sharing as a percentage of income, it is clearly a regressive hit, far less noticeable to those at the top of the heap. Still better than unemployment? Sure, but it's a ding to the overall compensation.

After netting the aforementioned big money in a quarter, the SLT in the MSFT division of Walmart continues to think it's not enough money to keep up with the health care expenses for everyone, especially after newly adding in everyone's OSDPs and their kids, plus paying the taxes for this.

"Corporations following a greedy algorithm to minimize their tax bill and payrolls isn't the best thing for the country."

What a crock of socialist bs. Efficient companies make us stronger economically, not weaker. The issue here is inefficient *Government*. Recklessly so. But then people like you never want to deal with the problem. You just want to keep throwing more money at it and hoping it fixes itself.

I would also wager that you don't send the Government an extra payment on your own personal income taxes. But then that's the level of hypocrisy I would expect from someone spouting such ignorant views.

"$5.74 BILLION net profit is a really big number, and can also viewed in it's full-length form as $5,740,000,000."

While you're doing math drills, start counting out the zeros in shareholder value destroyed over the last eleven years, or even again this year. And then ask yourself whether your job will be more or less secure if SLT doesn't take steps to curb unecessary spending, especially in light of single digit growth.

"I'm not doing another year of this, it's not worth it anymore. In 8 years at Microsoft I've never seen so many people looking for jobs. There is no strategy or leadership. As a manager it's a joke to even talk about career planning with directs who got fucked over in calibration."

The sooner one starts looking around, the higher the chance of one is ahead of the crowd. Oh, maybe the crowd is already heading to the exit, just imaging the resumes flooding out of Redmond into the Puget Sound employers and other out-of-state employers. The proof is in the pudding, let's sit back and watch whether any of the principles can get even an interview, especially those who are Windows PMs. Once you have been a Windows PM for over ten years, you are pretty much worthless outside of Redmond. Even inside of Microsoft.

Just got the corporate mailing on 2012 benefits. Pretty depressing after Lisa's e-mail officially killing off our Premera PPO in 2013. 2012 will be the last year of great healthcare benefits.

Doing the math suggests that I'll be paying $7,5000 a year out of pocket for healthcare with the high deductible HSA that replace our current PPO.

If you are young and healthy the HSA is a great choice. For those of us who are older, have chronic health issues or family members with chronic health issues we'll be looking at a big pay cut.

The good news is that I'll have a year to see if I can find a better job from a pay and benefits perspective. So no need to cry me a river.

The conspiracy theorist in me thinks all the HR decisions like this healthplan change and the 1-5 review rankings are designed to get people to leave. It's cheaper for the company when people leave on their own. It's potentially beneficial to the bottom line if you push out older people with more health issues, people who might be distracted by family members with health issues, and by folks who are your bottom performers (the 3s 4s and 5s).

Healthcare benefits were the golden handcuffs that kept me at Microsoft even though I've been miserable and hate our culture and review system. While change is hard these changes will probably benefit me by freeing me from my slavery to good healthcare benefits.

What a crock of socialist bs. Efficient companies make us stronger economically, not weaker. The issue here is inefficient *Government*.

Corporate socalism is much worse.

Wrapping yourself in the flag while exporting jobs to communist China is a joke.

How many of the clowns that caused the financial crisis are in jail?

I would also wager that you don't send the Government an extra payment on your own personal income taxes. But then that's the level of hypocrisy I would expect from someone spouting such ignorant views.

You can't have a consumer-based economy consisting of consumers who can't sell their main asset (e.g. house) to pay down debt.

Income growth for the middle class is also flat compared with people like Steve Ballmer but you identify with Steve. That's nice.

Lots of tea party goofballs here of late. I'm not surprised, since I see the way the "dead weight" drive around Bellevue and Redmond with their general lack of class and fancy European cars.

I would also wager that you don't send the Government an extra payment on your own personal income taxes.

As an ordinary citizen, all you have to do to give "extra" payment relative to hedge fund managers, individuals filing as S-corps, or large corporations is to earn your money though wages, follow the rules and file your return naively like a regular stiff. In that sense us "socialists" are already paying extra. You're welcome.

The US is spiraling towards bankruptcy because even with corporate tax rates at 3x other jurisdictions, our Government has an insatiable desire to spend money beyond its means.

"Spiraling into bankruptcy" means what exactly, medicare going broke in 2050 if not adjusted? Please drop the drama, the sky is not falling. Also, from what I understand that "3x corporate tax" is only what the suckers pay, like paying sticker price on your Audi (there, I put that for you in terms your kind might understand). The veteran tax avoiders like General Electric or perhaps Microsoft (haven't looked into it) are effectively paying 0.

Corporations following a greedy algorithm to minimize their tax bill and payrolls isn't the best thing for the country.

Maybe not, but if they do anything else it would be considered negligence by their shareholders. If a company is privately held then the owners can do whatever they want (pay over market wages/benefits, don't take advantage of legal accounting practices to minimize tax burden, etc.) but that doesn't fly when the company is theoretically owned by thousands (millions?) of different people.

You can argue about whether or not our system is fair/just/whatever but it is unreasonable to expect Microsoft to be the only publicly traded company in the country that doesn't operate with a "greedy algorithm."

As long as we're talking tax policy though, realize that the US's financial problems are entirely self-inflicted by the government/military. You know those Hellfire missiles we are constantly shooting from Predator drones in 6 different middle eastern countries now? Each one of those missiles costs 68 THOUSAND dollars. That's right, the entire annual tax burden of a well-paid Microsoft employee (making say $150k) does not even cover a SINGLE Hellfire missile. And this is just one example of how our tax dollars are literally being blown up.

So I actually think taxes are good and necessary and I love social programs but you'll find me on the anti-tax bandwagon until Uncle Sam does something to convince me that my tax dollars will be spent on things that are conceivably beneficial to me or at least people I know.

So I actually think taxes are good and necessary and I love social programs but you'll find me on the anti-tax bandwagon until Uncle Sam does something to convince me that my tax dollars will be spent on things that are conceivably beneficial to me or at least people I know.

Bank of America can make more parking money in a bank account in Brazil than lending to a U.S. small business.

Your deposits aren't being spent on things conceivably beneficial to you or at least people you know either.

One million dollars per day, spent since Jesus was born, wouldn't add up to what the military is spending in 2011 alone! And they don't even know where they are spending it! They've promised an audit in 2014...

BTW I'm feeling pretty good about Win8. I see all Android tablets except the Kindle Fire dying in a, appropriately, fire.

Not really surprising. MS's prospects for growth are fairly limited unless PCs rebound. And that doesn't seem particularly likely. The company just doesn't have a credible growth strategy. And instead of making some major strategic move that might address that, Ballmer buys Skype, a company that has never turned a profit in its history under several owners. And for the highest amount of money MS has ever paid out no less. Brilliant leadership like that is why Apple is now more valuable, does 50% more revenue, and is growing seven times as fast, even while spending 1/8 as much on R&D.

Bank of America Corp. (BAC), hit by a credit downgrade last month, has moved derivatives from its Merrill Lynch unit to a subsidiary flush with insured deposits, according to people with direct knowledge of the situation…

Bank of America’s holding company — the parent of both the retail bank and the Merrill Lynch securities unit — held almost $75 trillion of derivatives at the end of June, according to data compiled by the OCC. About $53 trillion, or 71 percent, were within Bank of America NA, according to the data, which represent the notional values of the trades.

"As a manager it's a joke to even talk about career planning with directs who got fucked over in calibration."

One of Microsoft's biggest problems is everyone wants to talk about "career planning" when they should be talking about kick ass products that customers want to buy. It's been this way for at least 10 years.

Yes, Microsoft is making money and probably will always be. By encroaching on innovations. Not by innovating and that makes working at Microsoft something to not be proud of.

The problem with Microsoft is that it's not run like a startup. Each role is trying to defend their legions and everybody seems to be steeping on other people's toes.

Leads trying to beat on ICs, Leads aren't accountable for their ICs actions. Managers trying to make sure they have a "say" to keep their jobs. Leads trying to kiss up to management, while at the same time ignoring ICs.

There's also way too many disciplines, that causes redundancy and friction -- Developers beating Testers, Program Management beating Product Management, User Experience trying to push Program Management. Developers trying to push Program Management. Its a whole bunch of twisted egos that then factor into the performance review.

Leads to a lot of unhappy folks, makes working every day at Microsoft hell. Lots of good core technically skilled people leaving or being managed out thanks to a crappy review and ranking system developed by a HR team.

Not long before Microsoft becomes the Walmart of technology companies.

I'm pissed seeing a lot of waste and inequity... our team has strong performers and it sucked to hand out 4/5 in August... and just last week we got pulled into some strategy meetings with Office 365, and we're wondering why they need so many heads to do what they do. In our team we'd be producing the same product with 1/5 as many heads... that's one bloated org I don't want to be anywhere near.

Put this in the category of “you gotta be kidding me.” Microsoft has applied for and received a patent (U.S. Patent #7,415,666) that essentially patents “Page Up/Page Down” functionality. The patent (Timothy D Sellers, Heather L. Grantham, Joshua A. Dersch) that was filed in March 2005 is yet another proof that our patent system is as (if not more) dysfunctional as Britney Spears.

...pudding, let's sit back and watch whether any of the principles can get even an interview,...

why would the principals attend the interview? they are making at least $150k base + $30k bonus + $40k stock awards. no other company on the planet pays so much (money) for so little (work). principals will make sure that they are not pushed out.

Gotta hand it to Ballmer. He's pretty creative. A decade ago when the stock was $27 and the targets in the $40s, he couldn't get the stock to meet it. So he worked hard for a decade to lower the company's prospects so that now the target and dead stock price are in alignment.

Gotta hand it to Ballmer. He's pretty creative. A decade ago when the stock was $27 and the targets in the $40s, he couldn't get the stock to meet it. So he worked hard for a decade to lower the company's prospects so that now the target and dead stock price are in alignment.

Achievement unlocked.

Will earn Ballmer a hefty performance bonus and another pat on the back from the Board of Directors.

Your whining doesn't alter the validity of the patents in question. And apparently the majority of companies who have seen them decided they were strong enough that licensing was preferable to litigation. And were talking about some pretty large and substantual entities, with lots of lawyers and cash of their own.

But then most companies are honest and want to do the right thing when made aware of an infringement. Unlike Google, where we now have public proof from internal emails that they knew Android infringed at least Oracle's IP and they should license it, but decided to ignore that and take their chances.

“I described the blocking and tackling he would have to do to keep the company from getting flabby or being larded with B players,” Jobs said of the meeting with Page this year in his living room. “Figure out what Google wants to be when it grows up. It's now all over the map. What are the five products you want to focus on? Get rid of the rest, because they're dragging you down. They're turning you into Microsoft.”

...pudding, let's sit back and watch whether any of the principles can get even an interview,...

why would the principals attend the interview? they are making at least $150k base + $30k bonus + $40k stock awards. no other company on the planet pays so much (money) for so little (work). principals will make sure that they are not pushed out.

You are wrong. I'm a Principal SDE who gave my 3-week notice last week. My remuneration at the new company is in line with what I get at MS plus a nice sign-on bonus that is a mix of shares and cash. You may be right, however, about Windows PMs (or any PMs) as at many companies Devs are expected to do PM work and if you have been a PM at MS for too long you've probably lost the technical edge necessary to land a new job.

Yeah, cause the likes of Apple never do that. Those multi-touch patents they've been applying for the past 2-3 years were never invented by a current MSR researcher when he was a university researcher back in 1983...

Yeah, cause the likes of Apple never do that. Those multi-touch patents they've been applying for the past 2-3 years were never invented by a current MSR researcher when he was a university researcher back in 1983...

“Figure out what Google wants to be when it grows up. It's now all over the map. What are the five products you want to focus on? Get rid of the rest, because they're dragging you down. They're turning you into Microsoft.”

Mini and others have been giving this same advice for nearly a decade. Now Jobs says it and it's magical.

"As a manager it's a joke to even talk about career planning with directs who got fucked over in calibration."

This struck a chord with me as well as many of the MSFT-ers here.

3s and 4s looking, many of them strong performers. This isn't all bad as it leads to cross pollination across the company. Woe to strong teams that see an exodus and end up having to give today's 2s a 4 next year.

A few notes from a managers perspective.

1. A 3 or 4 is not a death knell for interviewing.

2. Many of us with hard to fill reqs (hint look at the open date on the career site) see this year as a bargain hunting opportunity.

3. Never be afraid to apply for jobs that interest you, regardless of fit. On most teams, the job can be redefined for the right type of individual.

4. With the new system and lack of manager ability to soften the edges anyone with a 3 or higher has a license to look for a better fit. The unwritten rules around waiting for ship cycles to end no longer apply to this group.

Will earn Ballmer a hefty performance bonus and another pat on the back from the Board of Directors.

A little perspective...

Steve Ballmer has a net worth of 13.9 Billion which means his holdings can fluctuate in the 100s of millions daily depending on the market. He definitely isn't at MS for bonuses and has no vested interest in cheating the company.

Based on historical observation of other companies this size Microsoft will likely be around for a century or more (Ford, Dupont, General Electric,...).

I'd prefer to see more discussion around how we can create better products than our competitors.

Last time I checked it wasn't gone, just not as great as before. A mass exodus might be a good thing. The current crop seems to feel a sense of entitlement that the company's outward performance relative to competitors doesn't warrant.

"Apple didn’t invent the iPod, they stole the idea and made the music industry their own. The way we buy and listen to music is now shaped almost entirely by Apple’s vision.

Apple didn’t invent the smartphone, they stole the idea and reshaped the industry in their own vision. Yes, Apple has “copied” bits and pieces of iOS from other sources —notifications is the obvious example — but overall, the future of the mobile industry has been shaped by Apple.

Apple didn’t invent the tablet computer, they stole the idea and now iOS is the template for the tablet market.

The future isn’t about market share, it’s about a post-PC mindset:

Pre-iPad, tablets were attempting to hitch a ride East. Apple built a brand new car and started driving West.

Even assuming someone, someday, takes the bulk of the tablet market (as Google’s Android OS has done in mobile) they’ll be sitting bitch in Apple’s vision of a post-PC world.

As it stands, Apple owns the future and Microsoft still doesn’t know where their tablet ideas went.

The takeaway: In each of the above cases Apple stole the future out from under their competitors."

"First you have to start with a CEO who will accept nothing less. As opposed to Ballmer who let's anything ship."This is the real problem of Microsoft. We have some strange reverse-micromanagement effect stretching down from the top all the way down to functional management. Everyone wants IC's to take responsibility for everything: Commitments, Career, Product Quality, etc. It's used in some strange pep-talk fashion too. It has no regards for the fact that someone good at writing C++ code may have no taste in product design, especially for a product not aimed at them. And then we have Ux which use user studies which are huge confirmation bias sessions.I have seen a lead PM make the real actual decision for a product with the Microsoft brand on it to ship or not, with everyone higher merely deciding based on his report, not even trying the damn thing out.We need a Steve Jobs. We need a hardass who punts products which are stellar down because of some flaw 99.9% of the population would never even recognize if it was staring them right in the face. Heck, even if this person makes decisions which are completely wrong at least you will have clarity and calibration across the company. Right now, we have General Managers who don't even analyze products and features to half this detail.

"We need a Steve Jobs. We need a hardass who punts products which are stellar down because of some flaw 99.9% of the population would never even recognize if it was staring them right in the face."

GL with that. Your board thinks Ballmer is doing a great job. They just awarded him 100% of his bonus.

Ballmer and the board won't be fired until revenue starts to collapse, which is probably no more than year away. Then you might get an inspired CEO. But more likely you'll get a turnaround suit first, who will slash and burn to try and boost the stock. When that fails after a few years, MS might catch a break and finally get someone gifted.

Take a look at an IPAD2 - they are sleek, respond quickly, have an intuitive and sharp interface. Microsoft should be able to produce a competing product easily. I think we should come right out and make our tablet very similar to the IPAD - we can beat Apple on price and available games - xbox integration - Apple has no entry in the console market. Also Jobs didn't punt everything - look at Apple TV - that's a brick if I ever saw one. There was nothing special about Steve Jobs that 100s of people already in Microsoft don't have. They just lack the voice and acceptance to make their ideas/opinions heard on the scale required to make broad industry shifts.

Arguably by early 2000s other people at Apple were controlling most core design decisions and he may have even held the company back in some ways. He had rock star appeal to the public, other technology personalities and junior employees.

Trust me when you are exhaling your last breath Microsoft will still be churning out inovations.

"I think we should come right out and make our tablet very similar to the IPAD - we can beat Apple on price and available games - xbox integration - Apple has no entry in the console market."

Here's what you and apparently the company haven't figured out yet. You're not competing against just their device, which none of your OEMs can match incidentally. You're competing against their entire ecosystem (OS, device, apps, content, retail presence, accessories, installed base, word of mouth, halo effect from other products). MS let them build it brick by brick over a decade. Now MS has very little chance of beating it; you won't even have your OS for another year. The only people who do are Google, because of Android's success in mobile and because they have tablets in market already, and Amazon, because they're the last man standing with a similarly broad content offering.

This is mobile all over again. MS was arrogant and asleep, got destroyed, and then has taken too long to respond.

Trust me when you are exhaling your last breath Microsoft will still be churning out inovations.

Ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha... that was a good laugh, thanks!

That's exactly how I thought of Microsoft a decade ago, staunchly arguing in its favor to anyone who said otherwise, but slowly but surely, I've realized what Microsoft obvious "innovations" are...

Everyone builds on others innovations, but Microsoft's attempts are shameless copying, nothing else. Don't give me any crap about Metro, that's not an innovation. Android isn't an innovation either. It is obvious to everyone what innovations are, no one argues about it: Google Search, Apple's iPod, iPhone and iPad. And yes, Xbox Kinect, the only successful Microsoft innovation in the last 10 years I can think of (and the jury is still out on that one).

Every single thing that Microsoft does is all about defending its cash cows, centered around Windows. And that's why it won't, can't, ever innovate.

Lots of good core technically skilled people leaving or being managed out thanks to a crappy review and ranking system developed by a HR team.

I'm seeing this every day. We have "architects" that can't be bothered (or don't know how) to actually analyze their designs, thus inflicting shitty design decisions on devs and testers that have no say in the matter. Managers that don't appear to be empowered to fire devs and testers that couldn't reason their way out of a wet paper bag.

Nobody competent is going to want to stay in an environment like that. Eventually, some competitor will come along and offer them an environment where they're more likely to be allowed to make good software, and probably get paid more to do it.

That's happening, all the time. People running the show at MSFT should really take a hard look at how to keep these people with real skills here, and let them work on making good products instead of worrying about which political game they should be playing this year.

Single digit revenue growth is scary. Are we close to the point where revenue begins to fall?

Microsoft's WalMart leadership is trying to keep our profits up by taking it out on our employees with significant cuts to healthcare benefits.

The healthcare cuts are super regressive with employees and their families who have health issues looking at upwards of $7,500 a year in out of pocket costs. $7,500 a year is a huge pay cut for someone making $100k a year and not so much for our WalMart execs who receive million dollar plus bonuses.

Healthcare cuts combined with our new review system which is driving people out of the company looks like its being done by design. Its much cheaper for people to leave on their own than to lay off employees with severence packages or have the company's unemployment premiums go up. If the new healthcare and review system fail to drive folks out I expect to see layoffs to follow but without severence payments.

You're competing against their entire ecosystemWhat ecosystem does Apple have for gaming?etc.

This is utter drivel. Apple clearly has an extensive hardware and software ecosystem. Just because you can think of some markets they're not in doesn't mean they don't have an ecosystem. I could similarly maintain that Microsoft doesn't have an ecosystem because it doesn't manufacture automobiles or mine for coal. See? Nonsense.

(Also, you did a terrible job of listing markets they're not in. For example, how can you say with a straight face they don't have a gaming "ecosystem" when iOS is arguably the most successful gaming platform in history?)

Apple is doing well now but they don't seem at all diversified and consumers can change preferences very quickly.

Keep telling yourself that. It is a common fallback position for Microsoft employees to claim the competition isn't diversified. Google? Just an advertising company. Apple? Just a hardware company. Meanwhile Google and Apple are eating Microsoft's lunch. Besides, Microsoft is only really making money on Windows and Office, how diversified is that?

Where they could fall down - the next wave of user interfaces - they aren't doing any research.

First, what is the "next wave of user interfaces" and second, how do you know they're not researching it?

As it stands, Apple owns the future and Microsoft still doesn’t know where their tablet ideas went.

Just because Microsoft was a big proponent of "Tablet PCs" doesn't mean it invented the idea of a tablet computer or had any original ideas about them.

Many Microsoft employees are indignant that Microsoft was pushing "Tablet PCs" for so long and Apple seems to have pulled the rug out from under them, but what they forget is that Microsoft only started doing pen/tablet computing after they saw what GO Corporation was doing in the 80s and was subsequently investigated by the FTC for stealing their ideas. I don't think Microsoft has any legitimate claim to tablet computing and they were simply out-executed (eventually) by Apple.

Similarly I run into a lot of Microsoft employees who are indignant about iOS saying that it doesn't do anything Windows Mobile wasn't already doing for years, as if Microsoft had some claim to smartphones too, when in fact Nokia was selling smartphones for years before the first version of Windows Mobile even came out.

I could similarly maintain that Microsoft doesn't have an ecosystem because it doesn't manufacture automobiles or mine for coal. See? Nonsense.

I don't see with respect to this competitive analysis, sorry.

when iOS is arguably the most successful gaming platform in history

You need game sales and an online presence to claim you have gaming ecosystem. I don't see any of that in their annual report.

I don't see any information on IOS being the must successful gaming platform but I do think Windows 7 X64 is the best gaming OS.

First, what is the "next wave of user interfaces" and second, how do you know they're not researching it?

Apple doesn't spend significant money on research. It has been argued on this blog as a positive for Apple.

I don't think Apple or Google have strong diversification in their product lines.

If you read the Google annual report > 80% of their revenue is still tied to the search business and Ad Sense. If something happened to that business they'd be in deep trouble - I don't think the self driving car or various strains of Linux are going to save the business.

You need game sales and an online presence to claim you have gaming ecosystem. I don't see any of that in their annual report.

You don't? Apple has paid app developers $500M just over the last few months (July to October), meaning they have made $214M from app sales, the majority of which are games. But whatever, doesn't really matter since "revenue" doesn't mean "ecosystem." Apple has a HUGE ecosystem of devices, devices owners, developers, many companies offering services and support to those developers, etc. etc. I think maybe you aren't understanding the concept of an ecosystem.

Apple doesn't spend significant money on research. It has been argued on this blog as a positive for Apple.

Regardless of how much money they spend, I don't recall them ever being at a disadvantage re: user interfaces, so I don't know why you expect them to be in the future.

If you read the Google annual report > 80% of their revenue is still tied to the search business and Ad Sense. If something happened to that business they'd be in deep trouble - I don't think the self driving car or various strains of Linux are going to save the business.

Sure, but that's like saying that if something happened to Windows, Microsoft would be in deep trouble.

I see an ecosystem for Apple with respect to entertainment media and mobile development in general. I don't see a significant gaming ecosystem based on information in the annual report (expenditures, revenue and disclosure).

Regardless of how much money they spend, I don't recall them ever being at a disadvantage re: user interfaces, so I don't know why you expect them to be in the future.

Kinect, ubiquitous phone, virtual keyboard just the beginning. I haven't seen them do anything ambitious in the space. They make really sleek devices that look great coming out of the Prada bag of a Kardashian.

Sure, but that's like saying that if something happened to Windows, Microsoft would be in deep trouble.

We understand each other perfectly (except Microsoft has more to lean on then just Windows).

"and just last week we got pulled into some strategy meetings with Office 365, and we're wondering why they need so many heads to do what they do. In our team we'd be producing the same product with 1/5 as many heads... that's one bloated org I don't want to be anywhere near."

Left 365 a long time ago along with half our team when we were under an ass of a GM (who's initials are BJ, and who currently seems to be looking for a job). This GM had no clue how to run the org, and everyone was running around madly doing work that I still don't understand what they needed so many people for. In Yahoo, we would have run this business with a fraction of the people.

They also had terrible mspoll numbers to the point where there was a HR person shadowing the GM for a while. No one could tell if it made any difference though..there was a big reorg but things seem to have stayed the same. I guess that's how Microsoft is run these days.

In terms of securing its future, Microsoft is at the biggest inflection point in the last 20 years. Every single business at Microsoft today owes its success to Windows:

-Office (who always dictated and got the first peek at the new Windows APIs it needed, before becoming a defacto standard in the workplace)-the Server business (interoperability with Windows client, then cheap Exchange and SQL Server on Windows)-the Tools business (who had a monopoly on Windows developers, from VB to VS to ASP.NET to C# and beyond)-Xbox (financed for 10 years before it could turn the corner, only competing against 2 companies with a tiny fraction of their R&D resources, particularly software and services)-Online Services, including MSN, Hotmail and Windows Live everything (financed for 15 years and still a meaningless driver)-bing (10 years to catch up with Google, including the MSN search era of course, and still sucking profits from other businesses like a black hole)-Windows Mobile (slap a Windows logo, some miniature Windows/Office functionality and call it a smartphone)-office 365 (copy the Google Apps business model by putting Exchange and Sharepoint online, in the hope of preventing mass defections from Office)-Windows Phone (take 5 years to wake up to Apple and Google taking over your market, then copy the best of what's working, and slap the Zune Metro UI on it)

Which brings us to Windows 8. With the success of Windows 7 (sales already slowing), no one is going to care for Windows 8 on the desktop. On the tablet side, people will compare it to an iPad, Amazon Fire or other Android tablets (which have reached 25% of new shipments). And Metro will not be a reason to buy even a reasonable comparable Windows 8 tablet when it's finally available sometime in the next 2-3 years (I'm guessing the first tablets are going to suck, just like last years WP7 phones did).

Windows 8 tablets will just be one of 3 or more equally viable alternatives. Even with the Windows brand behind it, that's most likely less than a 25% market share for the first few years, or in the best case scenario a 50% market share after 2-3 years. That's still a far cry from the 90% share Windows desktops and laptops enjoyed until a year or two ago. And that means a market share collapse like nothing it has ever seen. Margins will come crashing down with all this. First Windows, then Office, then everything else.

The Microsoft SLT knows all this, and has to plan to trimming the R&D budget drastically. Hence the new review system, with 3/4/5 who are free to leave (good attrition, see ya). The best case scenario would be to somehow survive, like IBM has done (What do they do anyway? Live off old monopolies?).

DEC was purchased by Compaq was purchased by HP - OpenVMS is still used a lot in mission crit - by the way this was a very innovative (sp?) OS.

Digital was carved up by Robert Palmer into little pieces, which he sold off one by one. Compaq got the remains of Enterprise Services.

VAX/VMS was a good operating system in 1978. I wouldn't call it particularly "innovative" -- its essential nature can be traced all the way back to Bob Clements' TOPS-10 OS in the late 1960s. VMS' four-ring protection model shows up in the original design papers for MULTICS. Most of the innovation at Digital was hardware; software was something they gave away in order to sell machines. Like Apple, Digital controlled their own hardware ecosystem, so it was easier to do cool things like the VAX-BI bus.

Toward the end, Digital stuck its corporate head in the sand and decided that if they just did a really, really big version of what they'd always been doing, that would save them. Out came the VAX-9000 series of vector processors.

I see the same "head in the sand" behavior at Microsoft. The main difference is that Digital wasn't as financially healthy as Microsoft, so the end came very suddenly. Microsoft will probably just keep groaning along...

These apple vs Microsoft posts are hilarious and they illustrate one of the reasons why I left MS: key people have no clue what apple is doing. Do yourselves a favor and purchase an iOS device. Use it for 6 months. If you still don't get it, you need to, for the love of what is right, change careers.

I see the same "head in the sand" behavior at Microsoft. The main difference is that Digital wasn't as financially healthy as Microsoft, so the end came very suddenly. Microsoft will probably just keep groaning along...

It sounds like the OP was a DECie, as I was. He is correct about the management sticking its collective head in the sand and by doing so they missed the shift to PC's (just as MS has missed the shift to mobile devices). I don't think the OP is exactly correct regarding DEC's financial health. It was the number two computer company, behind IBM, and was a "cash company" - quite stable -- but not with the billions that MS has. The company did spin down very quickly. My division was bought by Oracle, but the largest piece of the company did go to Compaq.

That said, the comaraderie I had at DEC was the best of anywhere I have worked and I miss the DEC culture terribly.

BTW, DEC did have a stack-ranking exercise, but it was more along the lines of who got the "1's" as opposed to a massacre strategy and of course the term "manage up" did not exist there.

In terms of securing its future, Microsoft is at the biggest inflection point in the last 20 years. Every single business at Microsoft today owes its success to Windows, including Office, the Server and Tools business, Xbox (financed for 10 years), and the meaningless drivers that are OSD, Windows Mobile/Phone, and office 365

Which brings us to Windows 8. With the success of Windows 7 (sales already slowing), no one is going to care for Windows 8 on the desktop. On the tablet side, people will compare it to an iPad, Amazon Fire or other Android tablets (which have reached 25% of new shipments). And Metro will not be a reason to buy even a reasonable comparable Windows 8 tablet when it's finally available sometime in the next 2-3 years (I'm guessing the first tablets are going to suck, just like last years WP7 phones did).

Windows 8 tablets will just be one of 3 or more equally viable alternatives. Even with the Windows brand behind it, that's most likely less than a 25% market share for the first few years, or in the best case scenario a 50% market share after 2-3 years. That's still a far cry from the 90% share Windows desktops and laptops enjoyed until a year or two ago. And that means a market share collapse like nothing Microsoft has ever seen. Margins will come crashing down with all this. First Windows, then Office, then everything else.

The Microsoft SLT probably knows all this, and has to plan on trimming the R&D budget drastically over the next few years. Hence the new review system, with 3/4/5 who are free to leave (good attrition, see ya). The best case scenario would be to somehow survive, like IBM has done (What do they do anyway? Live off old monopolies?).

By your tone, I'm guessing you've successfully predicted 10 of the last 0 MS collapses by now. I suppose if you keep saying it long enough you'll eventually be right

And by your tone, I'm guessing you've successfully predicted 10 of the last 0 times MSFT stock has climbed up in the last 10 years, as the market recognizes Microsoft's potential. I suppose if you keep ignoring the iceberg long enough...

You're competing against their entire ecosystemWhat ecosystem does Apple have for gaming?What ecosystem does Apple have for cloud?What ecosystem does Apple have for enterprise and business productivity software?What ecosystem does Apple have for online services like search, email?

Apple's ecosystem needs to be defined in paradigm shift emerging in how users consume technology these days. They are not excited anymore by geeky stuff like OS or Cloud instead they are looking for what new they can get from a product as a whole and for how much. Apple business model is much better designed for that paradigm than Microsoft’s one since Apple owns brand, retail experience, hardware design and manufacturing, software , app market and services. It can deliver much more consistent experience and more importantly monetize from all those elements and that is why they have close to 70% of entire mobile market profit and 43% of web traffic despite Android enjoying much bigger number of activations. Their management is very focused on consumers – take a look who is in their board : CEOs of Avon and J.Crew who expanded their brands from almost nothing to consumer powerhouses. Microsoft does not have people with such expertise and proven track record. Apple’s management is very forward looking constantly introducing new game changing products and profiting hugely from being the only player in early stage of product cycle. Microsoft on the other hand joins those markets late – by just copying somebody’s successful idea – and therefore enjoys much lower profits since market is already saturated and feature complete. BTW the latest IOS 5 has all technologies you mentioned above, including Siri to compete in Search with Google – another forward looking initiative that can be next game changer and already fuels consumer excitement and record sales of the most expensive iphone 4s. SteveB mentioned that MSR works on similar thing for many years – wasting 3.6 bln yearly without any commercial result.

If you take a look at Microsoft revenue of 16 bln only 1 bln comes from outside enterprise despite all those efforts in consumer area. That will not change anytime soon since even if WP7.5 is successful it will bring only 15$ revenue per phone since we need to share profits with retail channels and hardware makers.Microsoft is hugely successful in enterprise and productivity tools market and should focus on it more rather than persistently spend money on areas where it does not know how to play. But I believe that SteveB ego does not allow to admit to mistake.

Microsoft's big leap into the enterprise wasn't Windows as much as it was Excel. Taking out dominant player Lotus is what allowed the Office concept to sell. The only thing keeping Microsoft in the game really is the reliance of corporations on Excel and their inability to separate it from key applications. As soon as someone figures out how to take Excel out, it's game over in a big way.

"Microsoft does not have people with such expertise and proven track record."

Um, except Reed Hastings, of course.

"Apple’s management is very forward looking constantly introducing new game changing products and profiting hugely from being the only player in early stage of product cycle."

Huh? Apple was late to MP3 players, late to smartphones, and late to tablets. They rarely enter in the early stage of a product cycle. Nevertheless, when they do enter, they do it with a well though out offering that more often that not redefines expectations.

The rest of your long rambling comment is full of more inaccuracies. You sound like that Crandrea dork.

"And instead of making some major strategic move that might address that, Ballmer buys Skype, a company that has never turned a profit in its history under several owners. And for the highest amount of money MS has ever paid out no less."

I agree. Skype might have been an okay investment at half the price, but it's too small to make a significant contribution to MS's overall growth rate, which is really what the company needs. And of course Google managed to get Ballmer to pay double what he should of by feigning interest. Though I guess there was some payback recently in getting Google to buy MMI, which was even stupider.

At $8.5 billion there is no way that Skype will ever pay for itself. It kept it away from Google, which I guess was the objective. But all it's going to do is provide some more mostly profitless top line growth. Notice how after saying it would be its own division and contribute to profit after year one, they end up sticking it in E&D for reporting purposes? So now you'll never be able to confirm whether that occurs, or track Xbox or mobile for that matter. If they were truly confident that it could stand on its own, they would have given it a separate P&L. All that aside, it's not the transformational investment MS needs. And everyone seems to be able to see that except Ballmer and the board.

Apple's ecosystem needs to be defined in paradigm shift emerging in how users consume technology these days. They are not excited anymore by geeky stuff like OS or Cloud instead they are looking for what new they can get from a product as a whole and for how much. Apple business model is much better designed for that paradigm than Microsoft’s one since Apple owns brand, retail experience, hardware design and manufacturing, software , app market and services.

Apple is clearly well suited to making good consumer products but don't write them off as any less technical or "geeky" than Microsoft or any other company. For the most part their hardware and software is extremely well engineered and they even do things like design their own SoCs. Customers can sense good engineering.

By your tone, I'm guessing you've successfully predicted 10 of the last 0 MS collapses by now. I suppose if you keep saying it long enough you'll eventually be right

And by your tone, I'm guessing you've successfully predicted 10 of the last 0 times MSFT stock has climbed up in the last 10 years, as the market recognizes Microsoft's potential. I suppose if you keep ignoring the iceberg long enough...

I love the feisty back and forth, but to the first guy we have been hearing about the imminent death of Microsoft for well over a decade now. I would stay away from the tables if you head to Vegas. At least try a new perspective.

The insular mentality in Redmond is reaching new heights. The eventual irrelevance of Windows is unavoidable. Take any company today that does big bold hair raising shit and not one of them uses Windows except maybe to run Exchange.It may not be obvious from the main campus but ask your colleagues in Mtn View what their friends and neighbors are working on. BTW I hear your California coworkers got a pep talk from Steve recently and he managed to be even less convincing than he usually is. Perhaps he doesn't even believe his own BS anymore.

When I replace Ballmer, the first thing I will do is outlaw the word "innovation". Microsoft employees arguing about innovation is the biggest freakin' waste of time ever. Accomplishes absolutely nothing.

"...pudding, let's sit back and watch whether any of the principles can get even an interview,...

why would the principals attend the interview? they are making at least $150k base + $30k bonus + $40k stock awards. no other company on the planet pays so much (money) for so little (work). principals will make sure that they are not pushed out.

You are wrong. I'm a Principal SDE who gave my 3-week notice last week. My remuneration at the new company is in line with what I get at MS plus a nice sign-on bonus that is a mix of shares and cash. You may be right, however, about Windows PMs (or any PMs) as at many companies Devs are expected to do PM work and if you have been a PM at MS for too long you've probably lost the technical edge necessary to land a new job."

Principal SDE can get interviewed and hired outside of Redmond, as long as he or she still has current technical skills and outside firms are using MS stack. PM and SDET principals will have very hard time to get interviews or have offers that close to what they get inside of MS.

Most of Principal PM in Windows will get zero interest from outside. Outside of Microsoft, no one is interested in developing a new product that is compabile with XP/Vista/W7. New product efforts are aimed at iPad/Android/Chrome. Those Windows principal PMs, karma is coming for what you did to Windows and to those you "calibrated to 3, 4 or 5", you will get a taste of your own medicine. Overall, life is very fair, things even out "eventually."

I guess it's a good thing that Google decided to break the law then after all, huh?You don't sue people who break the law; you prosecute them. Patents, like copyrights, are civil matters. And as for those patents, no-one apart from MS knows exactly what, or even if, patents are being infringed. It's all a big stand-over with threats of legal action being directed against outfits who are using rather than writing code. MS is not suing Google over Android, is it? Why? The tactics in this case are very reminiscent of those of SCO in its attempts to screw money out of people who ran *nix. As I remember MS rolled over very quickly and quietly on this one.

Worked in 1982 to copy a file in batch on a mainframe and and probably still works today, although the plr I would have copied the file from has likely retired by now. This is one reason mainframes are still around, softies. Code written 30 and 40 years ago requires only small amounts of porting for new OS releases on new hardware, in the IBM mainframe environment. Unlike in the world of code with a user visible UI, there's no need to keep up with the joneses' interface design. So if the code still works, it is left alone. IBM is pleasing their current devs, not sacrificing their work on the alter of the newer and better and easier to use database API of the year (for example) that will make it easier to write new code at the cost of requiring you to learn he 4th new API in 6 years, and splintering the available pool of expertise on writing code to the Windows database API.

With API's being deprecated at Microsoft every 5 years or so, the same advantage of backward compatibility in the extreme just does not exist on MS. Sooner or later, those VB6 programs will have to move somewhere, and if it is not that much more difficult to move them to a platform that reaches more potential users (the web), AND costs less, developers just may go there.

And regarding z/os, anyone know if the cvt is still at address 0(16)? For something I last used 23 years go, I still remember waaay too much about that OS. Attending a uni where UNIX source access was forbidden to students, the best systems programming opportunities were on the mainframe for those not afraid of assembler and os control blocks.

So citing how long IBM was able to retain demand for its products is not necessarily a predictor of how well Microsoft will do the same.

"Windows 8 tablets will just be one of 3 or more equally viable alternatives. Even with the Windows brand behind it, that's most likely less than a 25% market share for the first few years, or in the best case scenario a 50% market share after 2-3 years. That's still a far cry from the 90% share Windows desktops and laptops enjoyed until a year or two ago. And that means a market share collapse like nothing Microsoft has ever seen. Margins will come crashing down with all this. First Windows, then Office, then everything else."

Don't forget that the tablet OS prices must be lower to remain competitive and users will expect free yearly OS upgrades for at least 2 years for their tablets.

I think I will spend today being insulted over my rating, deciding which vesting period to meet, and checking out job openings elsewhere.

BTW, for those giving 3 weeks notice - you're kidding, right? Take a few sick days to get in all of your doctor/dentist appointments, use up your PL days, take whatever vacation you don't want to cash out, and remember that two weeks notice is standard, since forever. And if you don't care about coming back ever, just leave your badge and other stuff on your manager's desk along with the resignation letter.

Those Windows principal PMs, karma is coming for what you did to Windows and to those you "calibrated to 3, 4 or 5", you will get a taste of your own medicine. Overall, life is very fair, things even out "eventually."

I'm hearing this type of discussion with people leaving more and more. The droves that are leaving are vowing to hurt Microsoft by way of not buying, not reccommending and openly not saying anything kind about Microsoft due to the unfair rating they received.

You may think its sour grapes by these people but these people have gotten excellent offers fairly quickly which dispells the 4/5 review rating.

This could hurt the company more quickly than the Windows decreased purchasing rate!

BTW, for those giving 3 weeks notice - you're kidding, right? ... and remember that two weeks notice is standard, since forever.

OP here. Two weeks notice is standard if you are in a non-exempt job. For a professional position the amount of notice given really depends on the job but should never been less than what is necessary to ensure a smooth transition. To that end, a written Transition Plan is essential and goes a long way in not burning bridges.

"Unlike in the world of code with a user visible UI, there's no need to keep up with the joneses' interface design. So if the code still works, it is left alone. IBM is pleasing their current devs, not sacrificing their work on the alter of the newer and better and easier to use database API of the year (for example) that will make it easier to write new code at the cost of requiring you to learn he 4th new API in 6 years, and splintering the available pool of expertise on writing code to the Windows database API."

Amen! I have been saying this for years. Microsoft mistakes bright shiny new language for improving the old languages. Think about all of technologies that are no longer like RDO, ADO, and Visual Basic (Not the .NET Version).

Can you images where Microsoft would today with a Phone, Tablet, and operating system that all worked within the Original VB and access Databases. It wouldn't be enterprise scalable but heck I will even replace Access with MSDE. They would have hundreds of thousands of developers ready to crank out Apps. To give some perspective, Microsoft Access at one point was said to have over 11 million developers. Microsoft at one point was going to replace the DB engine (Jet Blue) in Access with MSDE. Microsoft decided the strength of Access was the Forms engine. Alas, the plan was actually dropped because of the amount of developers needing to learn something new.

Objective-C, iOS, and SQLite remind me so much of those VB days. I did some C at Microsoft when I worked there and absolutely hated it. Objective-C is very clean and straight forward.

I feel like after working at Microsoft for so many years that I really don't have any skills other than keeping up with the next new language.

Recently, I watched a TV show where a singer was meeting with a Music Producer. The artist just sang the song to him and he was able to write down every chord and within the hour had a total song recorded. It made me think how much better off I would be if I was able to do that in my industry. My industry is full of the "Next thing" which to me looks a lot like the old stuff.

News today says Consumer Reports claims Ford/Lincoln's quality is slipping again (ranked 20th out of 28 automakers). One of the problems cited was the MyFordTouch and MyLincolnTouch units "locking up".

How are those personnel practices working out for you Ballmer and Microsoft? Quality is job none?

"Windows 8 tablets will just be one of 3 or more equally viable alternatives. Even with the Windows brand behind it, that's most likely less than a 25% market share for the first few years, or in the best case scenario a 50% market share after 2-3 years. That's still a far cry from the 90% share Windows desktops and laptops enjoyed until a year or two ago. And that means a market share collapse like nothing it has ever seen. Margins will come crashing down with all this. First Windows, then Office, then everything else.

The Microsoft SLT knows all this, and has to plan to trimming the R&D budget drastically. Hence the new review system, with 3/4/5 who are free to leave (good attrition, see ya). The best case scenario would be to somehow survive, like IBM has done (What do they do anyway? Live off old monopolies?)."

Even if trimming of payroll is "by design," SLT should be careful, otherwise, these SLT themselves will be on the chopping block too. Given the importance of W8, let's check out the developer site for both app and devices, one is "non-pulic" one has '90 look and feel. Is this how W8 can churn out amazing app and tablets in a year? Who should be responsible for these sad state of affair? These guilty parties are still giving out 3, 4, 5 when them themselves should be fired on the spot!

Microsoft Corp. (MSFT) needs to make changes that “might start with some management issues that probably need to be addressed,” according to Richard Sherlund, New York-based head of research for U.S. technology companies at Nomura Holdings Inc.

Microsoft shares “haven’t done anything in 10 years” and the company “just hasn’t shown that spark of innovation on the consumer side that Apple has,” Sherlund said in a radio interview today on “Bloomberg Surveillance” with Ken Prewitt and Tom Keene.

“It takes a different type of personality to innovate,” said Sherlund, the top-ranked software analyst by Institutional Investor magazine from 1989 through 2005.

"The tactics in this case are very reminiscent of those of SCO in its attempts to screw money out of people who ran *nix. As I remember MS rolled over very quickly and quietly on this one."

Lol. The standard shill talking points. I bet you applauded every company that made a patent claim against MS, but when MS makes a claim of its own, as Apple and Oracle have done, it's a shakedown. What a hypocrite.

He also reserves some choice words for current Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer. “When the sales guys run the company, the product guys don’t matter so much, and a lot of them just turn off,” he said. “It happened at Apple when Sculley came in, which was my fault, and it happened when Ballmer took over at Microsoft.” As a consequence, “I don’t think anything will change at Microsoft as long as Ballmer is running it.”

Not that we would have a competitor advise us about our CEO, but this one certainly rings amazingly true for the pre vs post billg era at Microsoft. With billg, most of our energy was focused on developing great products and beating our competitors. With steveb, most of our energy seems to be spent on gaming one review system after another and scoring points against our *internal* competition.

As to the amount of notice to give on resignation, it is simply a matter or courteousy, and two weeks is sufficient for nearly everyone. Transition plan? You mean like the transition plan that Microsoft offered people this fall, who thought they were meeting the requirements of their position, had met or exceeded the requirements of their job for x years, but suddenly found themselves with a stack rank assignment of 5? And perhaps a walk out the door? You mean that kind of transition plan?

Once you accept a new job elsewhere, you need to take a look at how you have been treated and rewarded at Microsoft, if you are feeling some big need to give excessive notice. That will give you some guidance on how long to make your new employer wait. The long goodbye can actually hinder people moving in on your place - and your office. Because you are moving on, and it will be in your best interests to be ready to go there, in the timeframe that best suits the needs of the new place, not the old one. If you are so valuable that they need longer than two weeks notice, then the way companies tell you that is with a substantial counter offer. Otherwise, the time together is over, the work arrangement has ended and it's time to just move on. Employment at will. Microsft will dump you in a heartbeat if it suits them, so two weeks notice to them seems awfully nice, really.

But hey, thanks for the sanctimonious admonishment. Be aware that no one may actually care about your plan after you leave, but nice to maybe leave a to-do list taped up on the whiteboard. If you got hit by a bus, there wouldn't be any transition plan either.

I feel like after working at Microsoft for so many years that I really don't have any skills other than keeping up with the next new language.

Amen!! I'm not a MSFT employee, I'm a .NET developer and surrounding-technology IT consultant. I recently came to this same conclusion. The MSFT tech isn't getting better - see the cluster-bleep around EF 4.x and other semantic versioning, and the NuGet and jQuery versioning nonsense (who the HELL thought up NuGet and thought this is a good idea...) - it's just getting more and more complex, interdependent, and takes days sometimes to get all the versions working together. (It's so bad that EF 4.1 pre-releases seem to replace some of the released installed .NET, and also require core config file mods, and Visual Studio reference mods...) Never mind here comes WinRT and now what for .NET? How about Silverlight?

It is looking like a dumber and dumber idea to spend tons of time learning MSFT stuff only to see it "replaced" by newer stuff that is questionably, if at all, better but certainly more complex and brittle.

"You may think its sour grapes by these people but these people have gotten excellent offers fairly quickly which dispells the 4/5 review rating."

I got a 5. I received an offer equivalent to my MS package - with a higher guaranteed base by 15% - at another local company, because other former MS employees who knew actual work quality, regardless of review ratings, were there. I was historically a 1/1+ who due to exhaustion from a big project had slipped to only being in the top 25% of the team that year, instead of its top 1-5%. And I guess someone hadn't liked that. Fortunately I had a great network at MS, and former colleagues knew I was worth snapping up when on the market.

And yes, it's true. I absolutely refuse to recommend an MS platform based solution just because "it's our default platform." If I believe a solution on another platform is more cost effective or another solution better meets user needs, the Windows platform solution has to fight its way to the PO finish line.

It's not vendetta, it's just that I get nothing out of being a sheeple, having left MS on the terms I did and being forced to leave $150k of unvested stock on the table. No loyalty or pride in my former employer's products, or interest in giving them a helping hand, is driving me today. So technology is evaluated on its features and cost/benefit, not on the name on the box.

The ipads we deploy have a total software cost for apps that is a fraction -- less than 10% -- of the cost of the corporate software bundle for desktops and laptops in our org. Unless you can prove to me that you cannot do your job without MS Office or Photoshop on your portable machine, odds are you're gettting an ipad from us, not a Laptop, as your portable computing solution. Need a keyboard? No worries, Brookstone sells a nice keyboard case for it! Perfect solution from a manageability standpoint? No. But we are not a bank or stock exchange, and we do watch the devices via mobile device manager software. We can afford to give up some of that control to save almost a million a year.

Companies have been compromising on numbers of staff for a few years, text quality on websites and in manuals lomger than that. And vertical market niche software quality has sucked for decades. Companies are now compromising on general business software, too, and making do with the "good enough" productivity apps just like they have with vertical market packages all along.

The value I am delivering to my current corporate overlords is a direct bottom line impact on doing more with less budget. It's a win/win.

Objective-C, iOS, and SQLite remind me so much of those VB days. I did some C at Microsoft when I worked there and absolutely hated it. Objective-C is very clean and straight forward.

I would not compare Objective-C with VB. However, look at the javascript/jquery/sql dev paradigm. That is (1) useful for cutting edge mobile web apps, and (2) approachable for average coders in a way that C/C++/Objective-C are not. It has the added benefit of being historically no less future proof (more, really) than MS desktop technologies.

I used the menagerie of db api's you mention. Most of the people I knew who used these languages to write special purpose business apps were not what I would call highly adept devs. They were power users who either understood their own business or knew how to learn others' businesses, who learned a toolset, and then relieved at having done so, they went out and built things with it. Unlike some of us, they don't live for the next new thing, they live to generate billable hours or business efficiencies using what they already know. This is a market MS has alienated. Some have moved to Ruby. Others to java. I don't hear nearly as much about VB.net as I heard about vb6.

I personally enjoy C. It is my native playground. But some tasks are better suited to higher level languages, because they're more a mattet of stringing together API calls or handling form events, than complex algorithmic processing. The personna who does much of the former work doesn't have the "I love it because it is new and cool" personality, and a way to appeal to them is to give them an extensible platform that stays fairly consistent through the years.

Amen! I have been saying this for years. Microsoft mistakes bright shiny new language for improving the old languages. Think about all of technologies that are no longer like RDO, ADO, and Visual Basic (Not the .NET Version).

Microsoft thinks it's doing developers a favor by inventing new languages and platforms and APIs all the time. Bulls***. It's just confusing developers, nobody knows what the recommended way of doing anything is anymore, every time you switch to something new all the accumulated knowledge about the old thing is invalidated, etc. etc. Maybe with the new thing you can write XYZ in 10 lines of code instead of 20, but is that better? Not when you already know what those 20 lines of code are and you can probably just copy and paste them from somewhere else and/or abstract them. The old way takes a couple of minutes whereas the new way takes hours of researching and debugging.

Developing for the Mac/iOS basically hasn't changed for the last 11 years (and probably not since NeXT in the late 80s) and it's not like Apple is hurting for developer enthusiasm.

“John Akers at IBM was a smart, eloquent, fantastic salesperson, but he didn’t know anything about product. The same thing happened to Xerox. […] It happened to Apple when Sculley came in, which was my fault, and it happened when Ballmer took over at Microsoft. Apple was lucky and it rebounded, but I don’t think anything will change at Microsoft as long as Ballmer is running it,” said Steve Jobs.

I just resigned from MS, and can say from experience that once you've given notice, it's unpleasant to come into the office every day. No one really wants to see you there, since you're a living vote of no confidence in your team. Wrap up projects and write a transition plan before you resign, and then give 2 weeks, at most. Make your transition painless for colleagues, and then head for the exit.

Looking back over my career here I wish I'd taken some of the politics less personally. Review scores aren't a referendum on your soul-- just on your wallet.

"As to the amount of notice to give on resignation, it is simply a matter or courteousy, and two weeks is sufficient for nearly everyone. Transition plan? You mean like the transition plan that Microsoft offered people this fall, who thought they were meeting the requirements of their position, had met or exceeded the requirements of their job for x years, but suddenly found themselves with a stack rank assignment of 5? And perhaps a walk out the door? You mean that kind of transition plan?"

For the trolls and all the internal "victims", from the internal "protagonists", enjoy: http://m.prnewswire.com/news-releases/great-place-to-work-unveils-worlds-best-multinational-workplaces-132755163.html

Microsoft has a product to connect up the Mainframe: Host Integration Server. And our company uses it everywhere for our ATM network.

HIS and its predecessor SNA Server actually made money for Microsoft. Cusomers actually wanted to buy these products, even without marketing. But in the mid 2000s, the HIS product group was shifted in under BizTalk - a product which has never covered its costs, and which few customers want. Today, you can no longer buy a stand-alone copy of HIS. You need to buy a BizTalk license; then throw away all the BizTalk bits and just select the "HIS" setup option. There was no technical or business justification for this;, it was pure politics and empire building, of the worst kind. The HIS team had to answer to CSD GMs and CVPs who didn't know what CICS or IMS are, let alone build products for them. Now HIS is a shattered remnant of its former self: a demoralised team, most of the star devs have long since left, and the product has ossified. It was a disaster for the product group members, a blow for customers, a loss for shareholders, and a victory for head-up-ass corporate politics of the Ballmer Era. It is a tragic emblem for everything wrong with Microsoft.

"It's not vendetta, it's just that I get nothing out of being a sheeple"

LOL. I recall reading your original comment here at least a year ago. Only now you've modified it to reflect the barrage of criticism you received then, making it appear your motivation is rational business judgment instead of the original spite.

When someone leaves MS and goes to work for someone else in IT, they should be selecting the best product fit period. In fact even when they're working for MS they shouldn't be recommending a MS product unless they believe it is in fact the best option. But your original comment, combined with this one, shows that this isn't about product merits. You're just bitter and vindictive.

Frankly, you sound like someone with a really fragile ego, particularly the need to tell us how great you really were despite your ranking. MS isn't unique in having some great people get gone while some terrible people have stayed. Shit happens in large companies. Just ask Bob Muglia. And you're fooling yourself if you think your new coworkers can't see through your product choice motivations as easily as I can.

"Gotta hand it to Ballmer. He's pretty creative. A decade ago when the stock was $27 and the targets in the $40s, he couldn't get the stock to meet it. So he worked hard for a decade to lower the company's prospects so that now the target and dead stock price are in alignment."

Whoa partner! Do you remember why the stock got to 27 10 years ago? I was there and I can tell you that when Win2000 was released, MSFT was at around 120. This was during the winter; by spring, the company was adding to stock options of all employees because they were deep underwater. Hint: no, this was not Bush's fault, or Ballmer's.

"I got a 5. I received an offer equivalent to my MS package - with a higher guaranteed base by 15% - at another local company, because other former MS employees who knew actual work quality, regardless of review ratings, were there. I was historically a 1/1+ who due to exhaustion from a big project had slipped to only being in the top 25% of the team that year, instead of its top 1-5%. And I guess someone hadn't liked that. Fortunately I had a great network at MS, and former colleagues knew I was worth snapping up when on the market."

When you got it, you got it, does not matter some piece of shit giving you a 5. Let those principals, especially PM principals try to get interviews, let alone receiving multiple offers.

At the Narita "Google Desk" to use free Wi-Fi, flight is delayed, over three hours "at the desk", breakdowns are: one third smartphones, one third iPad or touch devices and one third PCs. Just glancing over PC's sign on screens, all of them are XP's. No Vista or W7 appeared in three hours. Some in Windows would argue that there is "great potential" for W8 upgrades, really?

There is no migration path out of XP and these 1/3 of Google desk users who are using PC do not have a PC that can do Metro or touch. I wish I'm wrong and hope that HP can come back and do a good iPad killer. The question is when? Do HP have the design chop to come up with one, for that matter any of our OEMs---especially when the couldn't even finalize and certify their W8 system 3 weeks before back Friday 2011. This is just brilliant, Windows spent too much time saving the old woods, handing out 3, 4 and 5 when the market is passing us by at light speeed.

"Even if trimming of payroll is "by design," SLT should be careful, otherwise, these SLT themselves will be on the chopping block too. Given the importance of W8, let's check out the developer site for both app and devices, one is "non-pulic" one has '90 look and feel. Is this how W8 can churn out amazing app and tablets in a year? Who should be responsible for these sad state of affair? These guilty parties are still giving out 3, 4, 5 when them themselves should be fired on the spot!"

I love whoever this guy is from W8 store that keeps coming back again and again to grind his axe because he got a shitty review.

Here's some free advice: No one who gives a flying fuck about your situation reads this blog. You clearly don't have enough influence to affect your own situation, and the IQ of your comments, coupled with your broken english makes it pretty clear you got the rating you deserved.

If you're as good as you think you are, leave the org and find any of the 1,000's of great positions in the company. If you're not that good, but still think you're getting a bum deal, then leave MS. If, as I suspect, you suck, and you're at the company on a foreign work visa, then either stfu, or leave.

Fascinating shift in attitude and content for the comments on this post. I've been reading mini's blog & comments for each earnings report for years. As the iPhone progressed in the marketplace the mood shifted from "Apple is clueless" to "We can beat Apple". In the first ~150 comments I read today, next to nothing.

Instead, the comments reflect an increasing flow of product talent to the exits. People are talking about corporate tax rates, parking cash overseas & how Ballmer is insulated from reality by his enormous fortune. One commenter strikes a particularly sad chord when he notes that after making a $5.7 Billion profit, they're making substantial cuts to health care benefits.

Buy Yahoo? No, probably not this year. Ballmer will string that out until 2012 as a smokescreen to cover abysmal sales & losses from the Nokia / MSFT phones in the first quarter. Windows 8 adoption? Unpredictable, but it's hard to imagine anyone in the corporate world wants to pay the cost of upgrading with little or no increase in productivity. Will Win 8 make anyone a more efficient typist? Certainly not.

Later in the thread the MSFT dead weight appears, still tied to the paradigms of the 20th century, spewing blatant falsehoods like: "Trust me when you are exhaling your last breath Microsoft will still be churning out inovations."

I'm almost speechless. Steve Jobs pulled the rug out from under Microsoft over the past decade. He screwed MSFT so badly in the marketplace that it's almost impossible to recover. Using "voodoo" ... (biting tongue & moving on).

Siri Voice control is about to hit every product in the Apple line, including the Apple TV which hits in a year or so. Microsoft product technology hasn't even reached the level of the iPhone 3 as of today.

Saving the most telling disconnect for last:

"When iOS is arguably the most successful gaming platform in history...

Reply"You need game sales and an online presence to claim you have gaming ecosystem. I don't see any of that in their annual report.

I don't see any information on IOS being the must successful gaming platform but I do think Windows 7 X64 is the best gaming OS."

To the replying person: Have you worked for Ballmer so long that it's driven you crazy? Did someone drop you on your head last week?

There's a really HUGE statement in Apple's financials & future budget estimates just released. They expect to DOUBLE iOS device sales in the coming year (Source asymco.com). Every one of those devices is loaded with game apps by almost everyone who buys one. Forget the 30% commission on sales, the apps drive the device sales. Microsoft has no presence in this key 21st century technology. None. Zero.

Unlike almost every other commenter on this blog I sign my name to my comments. You can search back for years and decide for yourself what weight you choose to give to these words. I am a semi-retired developer, manager & product integrator who made a very comfortable living in the 1990's working almost 100% with Microsoft technology. You couldn't pay me to recommend it today, unless you're willing to throw 7 figures on the table as a Nokia-style bribe.

(a) Microsoft killed its Courier tablet project mainly because it strayed outside of the company’s two main businesses, Windows and Office, in a way that was perceived as a threat to those businesses. According to an in-depth report from CNet, it was Microsoft Chairman Bill Gates who steered Steve Ballmer towards nuking the project.

For those not familiar, Courier was the code name for a journal-like tablet that was being developed by Microsoft. According to the CNet report, the project was headed by J. Allard, the man who had led the development of Microsoft’s popular Xbox console gaming platform, and the 130-person team was months away from having the device ready for market.

(b) According to CNet’s report, there were two competing visions of how to do a touch tablet within Microsoft. One was the above-described Courier, while the other was a traditional Windows OS-based approach headed by Steven Sinofsky, the head of Microsoft’s Windows division, that was still at least two years away from being ready (it will be closer to three before it ships).

When faced with these two visions, Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer did what Steve Jobs would never have done, he went looking for the opinions of others, specifically the opinion of Microsoft cofounder Bill Gates.

Windows 8 tablets will just be one of 3 or more equally viable alternatives. Even with the Windows brand behind it, that's most likely less than a 25% market share for the first few years, or in the best case scenario a 50% market share after 2-3 years. That's still a far cry from the 90% share Windows desktops and laptops enjoyed until a year or two ago. And that means a market share collapse like nothing it has ever seen. Margins will come crashing down with all this. First Windows, then Office, then everything else.

"Analyst Jack Gold projects that Android tablets will make up about 50 percent of the market in the 2014-2015 time frame, with the iPad only 30 percent and tabs running on Microsoft Corp.'s Windows operating system having 10 percent.

Despite that overall edge, he believes Apple will have an edge in tablets used by businesses and organizations, with 40 percent of that market, compared to 30 percent for Android and 15 percent for Windows.

Is anybody else depressed about the ads Microsoft is blasting over Hulu? Sorry but the people in marketing just don't "get it." (As if they ever did...)

The ads for IE9 basically just show some people going to web pages, as if you can't do that with EVERY OTHER WEB BROWSER. Google's ads for Chrome were entertaining and had a clear message, namely that Chrome is super fast. Try harder, Microsoft.

Also the ad with the dancing dad ("TECH NO") seems meanspirited to me, and also isn't emphasizing anything that you can do with Microsoft products that you can't do with any other smartphone/laptop/etc. combination.

Apple has had so many iconic ad campaigns, it drives me nuts that Microsoft can't produce a single thing that isn't confusing crap.

To all the iPhone/Apple fans here. iPhone/iPod may have taken the western world by storm but in the largest hand phone markets read India/China... iPhone has a piddly share even in the smartphones segment. the battle has only just begun and its going to be a long one. Windows Phone may be late for the western markets but its just in time for the almost 1.5 billion mobile phone users in Asia.

Quit Microsoft for Amazon last month. Best decision I ever made. Now I'm on a team that actually ships software, I make 10% more, and my commute is much shorter. I highly recommend moving away from the toxic culture at Microsoft...

From the Seattle Times: "Microsoft has named Yusuf Mehdi chief marketing officer for Microsoft's Interactive Entertainment Business division, which includes the Xbox and Kinect brands. Previously, Mehdi spent 10 years in Microsoft's Online Services Division, where he led an 1,800-person engineering team to develop and launch Microsoft's entry into search and online advertising, according to his company bio. More recently, he led the marketing rollout of Bing."

So now he can lead Interactive Entertainment to the same financial successes experienced by Online Services/Bing? That's super exciting!

For all you complainers,,,,You folks should all work in MSIT....Where you work with feel like being in the Apollo launch room. Talk of lack of Vision, direction and leadership...there seems to land grab and empire building and a$$ kissing -- We are currently restructuring an exercise that is not rooted in reality and with no business value.

For an organization and drains billions of dollars, the operations and the IT teams are the inefficient and most badly planned organizations ever. I wold fire KT in a heart beat as I dont think he has shown any results for the time he has been at MS or held these teams accountable.

Well that would need a more courage from the LT....that is another story... who is counting the costs of reorganizations...

Excellent hiring decisions from 2-3years ago coming back to haunt MS India. Dynamics team has ensured we lost all three important CRM deals in FY12... Third failure in 5years. How come we never get this business right?

Disclaimer

These are sole individual personal points-of-view and the posts and comments by the participants in no way represent the official point-of-view of Microsoft or any other organization. This is a discussion to foster debate and by no means an enactment of policy-violation. These posts are provided "as-is" with no warranties and confer no rights. So chill. And think.