UFC 152 preview: Just who is at a disadvantage in short-notice Jones-Belfort fight?

So here are Jon Jones (16-1 MMA, 10-1 UFC) and Vitor Belfort (21-9 MMA, 10-5 UFC), five weeks after the UFC world briefly turned upside down and a series of unfortunate events put them on the most unlikely collision course.

They’ve had exactly the same amount of time to specifically train for the other, yet light-heavyweight champ Jones brings more recent training time to the table.

Does that put Belfort at a disadvantage, or is it the other way around?

Let’s get one thing straight: ‘Bones’ opened as a 13-to-1 favorite for a reason. He’s not just a physical specimen, but a rare blend of creativity and aggression inside the octagon. He’s never been beaten aside from a disqualification loss, and he’s finished opponents far more consistently, or at least more resiliently, than Belfort.

And there’s no more clear-cut downside to ex-champ Belfort than the physical gifts he lacks coming in to the title fight, which headlines UFC 152 on Saturday at Air Canada Centre in Toronto. (Main-card fights air on pay-per-view following prelims on FX and Facebook.) He’s 4 inches shorter than the 6-foot-4 Jones and gives up more than 10 inches of reach, as do most of Jones’ opponents. Same as all of them, he’s faced with the task of getting inside before he can be kicked or punched, and then when he’s close enough, he’s exposed to takedowns.

But consider that Jones is coming into his fifth attempted title defense having put in a full training camp for Dan Henderson. He’s had no down time to recover from that camp before rolling into another for Belfort. The fact that he’s 25 years old means he has less overall wear on his body. Still, as most fighters will tell you, the body breaks down during camp, and the taper-down that comes immediately before a fight is a much-needed break. Ideally, you peak at the same time you compete. Sometimes, however, you can’t fully recover when you hit the octagon. You’re sluggish for no other reason than you’re simply exhausted.

Jones was near his peak when UFC 151 was canceled, and he then had to turn around and start the whole process again. It’s a scenario that’s ripe with opportunity to aggravate the nagging injuries that built up in the camp for Henderson.

The most sure way Belfort looks good on Saturday is fighting a less-than-100-percent Jones.

Luckily for Jones, he’s facing an opponent who’s got 10 extra years of wear to contend with when fight camps come around. The 35-year-old Belfort won his first UFC tournament when he was 19 and is the only active link to the UFC’s early days of no-holds-barred competition. He is 16 years into a career that’s seesawed violently as he’s moved from the UFC to overseas in Japan and the U.K. His career was revitalized by a move to middleweight, and he beat all but middleweight champ Silva with a speed he lacked mid-career. Historically, though, he’s been wildly inconsistent at light heavyweight and has lost to Henderson, Chuck Liddell, Alistair Overeem (twice), Tito Ortiz and Randy Couture (twice in different classes) while notching sporadic victories against lesser names.

And prior to accepting the fight with Jones, Belfort, who in May broke his hand while training for a rematch with Wanderlei Silva, was training for a middleweight fight against Alan Belcher at UFC 153 on Oct. 11. Weight-cutting/diet consultant Mike Dolce recently told MMAjunkie.com (www.mmajunkie.com) that “The Phenom” started the cut for the Jones fight from 220 pounds. So it’s all but impossible that Belfort has put on quality bulk. Rather, he’s simply not cut as much weight, and historically, added bulk (particularly fat) cuts into a fighter’s speed – which is Belfort’s biggest weapon.

Jones, meanwhile, cuts in excess of 20 pounds to make the light-heavyweight limit. He held up fine in a five-round fight with Evans. The longest Belfort has fought is 15 minutes, and he’s lost more than he’s won when forced to the scorecards.

A less tangible variable is how the controversy surrounding Jones has affected his mental state leading into the fight. He’s been cast as the villain for his decision to turn down a short-notice fight with Chael Sonnen at UFC 151, which prompted the promotion to cancel the event. While he’s projected an image of tranquility in the media, he’s frequently been defensive as fans and media have attempted to decode his choices, and his public spat with UFC President Dana White made him feel vulnerable and, perhaps, more exposed than ever before. Fans hating you is one thing – but your boss is a different story. Could that be a distraction heading into the cage?

The safe bet is no. Even if Jones has a less-than-perfect night, Belfort fights a supremely uphill battle to pull out a win. A puncher’s chance is what he’s got.

Benavidez vs. Johnson for inaugural flyweight title

There surely isn’t a tougher fight to call than a bout to determine the first UFC flyweight title.

Joseph Benavidez (16-2 MMA, 3-0 UFC) and Demetrious Johnson (15-2-1 MMA, 3-1-1 UFC), who co-headline UFC 152 as the last men standing in a micro-tournament of 125-pound fighters that kicked off in March when the promotion decided to add the flyweight division.

Benavidez quickly stopped Yasuhiro Urushitani in the opening round of the competition to advance to the finals and extend his win streak to four fights. Johnson fought Ian McCall to a draw at the same event and then earned a unanimous decision in a rematch in May. Both were hard-fought wins for “Mighty Mouse” but not to the point where he’s at a disadvantage against Benavidez.

In fact, only small differences separate them in a head-to-head matchup, which is fitting for top-level competitors.

The two share the ability to keep a staggering pace of activity, though Johnson tends to favor quick in-and-out combinations while Benavidez loads up with punches and swings for the fences. Benavidez has been characterized as a better wrestler, though Johnson has repeatedly proven he has the ability to take down and hold opponents on the mat. A slight edge in submission prowess might go to Benavidez, but purely because he’s submitted high-level opponents. Johnson is a terrific scrambler and gets back to his feet with ease.

If there were one thing that separated them in their time under the Zuffa banner, it’s that as a finisher, Johnson hasn’t hit his stride. He’s mostly outworked opponents en route to decision wins. If anything, Benavidez has a shown more instinct when it comes to finding moments to put away opponents.

But when it comes to how this fight will look, it’s unlikely it will stay on the mat for more than a few seconds, but rather, it’s likely to play out as a frenetic back-and-forth of striking. Expect to see Johnson on his bike and hitting and running as Benavidez attempts to pursue and land the knockout punch.

Bisping hopes for title shot after Stann

One year ago, Michael Bisping (22-4 MMA, 12-4 UFC) said he’d like a fight with middleweight champ Anderson Silva, but it was more of a nice idea than a burning desire.

That puts the “All-American” in the role of spoiler, and it’s a tough test for the ex-WEC champ. He’s never fought someone who’s as refined a striker as Bisping, and who now is able to stop takedowns (and land his own).

But Stann has one great way to win: make Bisping fight backward. The Brit historically hasn’t fought well against opponents who crowded him and prevented him from setting up combinations.

Bisping’s bread and butter is to play the outside game with his strikes, but he also could have an ace up his sleeve. Stann has always lacked in the wrestling department, and if he can nab a takedown and get on top, he could quickly exploit offensive opportunities.

Stann may not get the title shot with an upset, and Bisping might be forced to fight another opponent before getting his own But with few marketable opponents for Silva, both are close to the top of the division.

Hamill returns, featherweights open show

In other main-card action, light heavyweight Matt Hamill (10-4 MMA, 9-4 UFC) returns for the first time since a pair of listless performances against “Rampage” Jackson and Alexander Gustafsson. Hamill meets newcomer Roger Hollett (13-3 MMA, 0-0 UFC), a longtime prospect on the Canadian circuit.

Hamill hasn’t fought in more than a year, but his wrestling foundation is a great fallback against Hollett, who’s an aggressive striker and will likely swing for the fences. Hamill has a hard head, but this could be a tough one for him.

After a roller coaster of ups and downs in the now-defunct WEC and UFC, Swanson has put together back-to-back wins and pits his creative and impulsive striking against the similarly flashy Oliveira, who has submitted his past two opponents.

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