by Al MartinCould This Be the End of the Republican Party?
(3-14-16) With the ascendance of Donald Trump as a Republican presidential contender, there is plenty of speculation that a so-called civil war is brewing inside the Republican Party. But could this really be the end of the G.O.P.(Grand Old Party or Gay Old Party?)
Trump represents a big enough of a split in the party that the party could split in half – and that’s what I think is entirely possible. Particularly if Trump wins the election.
Why? Because there’s a great deal of anti-Bushonian sentiment and it has always been just under the surface. It just needed somebody from the outside for that to coalesce around and that’s become Donald Trump.
The point is that could be a split in the Republican Party creating two parties. I don’t know what names they would call themselves but this wouldn’t be the first time in history that major parties would split in half.
One faction would be those who support the Old Institutional Bushonian Cabal and the Cabal’s way of doing things vs. those who support a change from the Old Cabal, a deconcentration of power, a more populist Republican Party.
Historically the country started out with the Whigs and the Federalists. The Whigs began to go into decline in the late 1840s and their complete demise came when they changed their name to the Republican Party in 1856. The building tensions between the North and the South precipitated this change through the 1850s. The new Republicans coalesced around John Fremont who was after all the 1856 Republican candidate.
What the Republicans wanted was to retain traditional Northern control of the South and the South began to rebel. The South began to coalesce around then Senator Jefferson Davis and of course Henry Clay had long been a lightning rod in the south particularly in the Carolinas. The tension that built in the country especially in the 1850s was handled with the 1854 Missouri Compromise which fell apart. Then the Mason-Dixon line which divides north from the South was attempted as a compromise and it also fell apart mainly because the Republican Party kept blocking the southern states ability to expand their own infrastructure. These were the proximate causes of the Civil War. It had nothing to do with slavery since slavery wasn’t even an issue then. Slavery was a bogus issue which Abe Lincoln then brought up during the war with the Gettysburg Address in order to drum up support for the war in the North when support during the Battle of Gettysburg began to wane.
The problem for Lincoln was that even though the North had won the Battle of Gettysburg and Vicksburg had fallen by then the Northern army – the G.A.R. (Grand Army of the Republic) had taken a half a million casualties. These were some of the bloodiest battles ever fought on US soil.
Both Abraham Lincoln and Jefferson Davis were shocked at the Battle of Shiloh. The concept of losing 50,000 men in a single engagement was something that people had a hard time getting their minds around.
Both sides had their own interest within their own territory. Lincoln was initially not supported in the presidential race of 1860 by the New York Republican Cabal, which controlled all of the nation’s roadways, shipping, all of the large banks, and the entire country for all intents and purposes.
In order for the New York banks which were the center of all power at the time, they needed to retain control of the South because the South and its agriculture as well as the transportation shipping and processing of that agriculture was where the bulk of the profits were for the New York banks. Lincoln was pushed and wouldn’t come up with any compromise regarding ending the Civil War after 1861. When fighting broke out both sides were committed as soon as the first shot was fired in July 1861. The compromise that the South would have demanded would have included some sort of autonomy and that would have put New York financial institutions in an impossible position.
The present day situation isn’t much different than the splits that had always existed in the Republican Party – the splits between Big Business, the Conservatives and the so-called Upper Middle Working Class or Professional Class Republicans. This had been true since the Party’s inception in 1852. The Republican Regime that got in power remained in power which was always the regime that could wave the flag around the hardest and that ensured the support of the ignorant religious part of the Party. It also ensured the support of the so-called Grassroots or Working Class Republicans.
The Evangelical Republicans may be a waning force but the candidates are still forced to throw them a bone. Why? Because within the Republican Party, the Religious Right has now become the 15-20% swing vote.
It should be noted that Jeb Bush dropping out of the race so early also bespeaks volumes about the Republican Party. After all Jeb was hoping that he would stay long enough to keep interest in Jeb out there. In the beginning the Republican Machine SuperPAC money got behind Jeb and it was certainly believed that the money would keep him in even though nobody was voting for him.
Meanwhile Trump is a complete wild card because the Republicans don’t know how to handle him. Trump could be a spoiler to ensure that Hillary gets in but he certainly doesn’t see himself that way. They have to keep the party divided and that’s why they have to keep Cruz and Rubio in. Trump alone isn’t going to divide the Republican ticket enough to really help Hillary because he has very little support among the so-called Independents, who represent at least 20% of the final actual vote.
So if you get elected you have to have at least split the Independent vote. These are the voters that really coalesced around Ross Perot and have not really coalesced around Donald Trump because the Independents tend to be a better educated and more of an upscale vote. That’s why the Democrats usually get more of it than the Republicans do.
For Trump to act as a real spoiler, they have to keep other Republicans in the race.
Bernie will drop out at some point and the most of the vote that Trump can get is probably 30-35%. That’s the most of the Republican vote he can get and he could get some independents and some cross-over Democrats but it’s not going to be enough.
As soon as Hillary has the so-called Super-Delegates wrapped up, that will be the end of the story…
All Trump is doing is trying to influence the Republican platform, but his disapproval ratings are quite high when you understand that 45% of the American people said they would never vote for him. Nobody has ever got elected with that kind of disapproval rating. Trump will stay in because he keeps getting about 30% of the vote.
So will this be the end of the Republican Party?
Stay tuned…

* AL MARTIN is an independent economic-political analyst with 25 years of experience as a trader on NYMEX, CME, CBOT and CFTC. As a former contributor to the Presidential Council of Economic Advisors, Al Martin is considered to be a source of independent analysis for financially sophisticated and market savvy investors.

After working as a broker on Wall Street, Al Martin was involved in the so-called "Iran Contra" Affair as a fundraiser for the Bush Cabal from the covert side of government aka the US Shadow Government.

His memoir, "The Conspirators: Secrets of an Iran Contra Insider," (http://www.almartinraw.com) provides an unprecedented look at the frauds of the Bush Cabal during the Iran Contra era. His weekly column, "Behind the Scenes in the Beltway," is published weekly on Al Martin Raw.com, which also publishes a bimonthly newsletter called "Whistleblower Gazette."

Al Martin's new website "Insider Intelligence" (http://www.insiderintelligence.com) will provide a long term macro-view of world markets and how they are affected by backroom realpolitik.