Wednesday, February 25, 2015

ESPN made an argument this week that the statistics during this
NBA season of Oklahoma City guard Russell Westbrook stack
up well to other consensus Most Valuable Player candidates. The two players
considered the frontrunners for the NBA MVP award this season are Golden State’s
Stephen Curry and Houston’s James Harden. Westbrook has more rebounds per game
than both of those players, about the same amount of assists per game as Curry
and more than Harden, and more points per game than Curry and only slightly
less than Harden.

He also has a higher Player Efficiency Rating than both
Curry and Harden. A player’s PER takes into
account the good things he does – score, grab rebounds, get assists, block, and
steal – and penalises him for the bad things he does – miss shots, turn the
ball over, and commit fouls. As Dave Berri has pointed out though a
player only has to hit less than a third of his shots to get a net benefit from
the shots he takes (which basically any NBA player can do), meaning a
player can increase his rating simply by taking more shots.

Wednesday, February 18, 2015

How much is home ground advantage in the
AFL worth?In my AFL Power Rankings I adjust the
final margin of a match by home ground advantage before allocating ranking
points to teams. For example, when Sydney beat Fremantle by 24 points in their
qualifying final last year, I subtracted 12 points from the margin based on
Sydney having a two-goal home ground advantage (before then adjusting the
margin for the strength of the opposition).I have also used these home ground
advantage (HGA) adjustments over the past few years to rank the difficulty of each AFL team’s fixture.In August last year on this blog, in a
response to a question I posed about North Melbourne’s HGA in Tasmania, some comments were made by Manikato888 regarding HGA
in the AFL. Since then we have been
chatting back and forth about what may be good HGA adjustments to use.
Manikato888 was kind enough to share with me the work he had done on which
adjustments seemed to work best in predicting the results of matches.These conversations have led to me revisiting
the HGA adjustments that I use. I haven’t changed them completely to match the
adjustments that Manikato888 uses, in part because where the differences were
very small I wanted to maintain consistency wherever possible with what I had
used in the past. But I have made changes in cases where both logic and
empirics suggested a slight change may be warranted.For example, I had different adjustments
for the Swans and GWS against Victorian teams, with the Swans having a six point
HGA against Victoria teams in Sydney, while the HGA for GWS was 12 points.
Since they are both from the same state it made sense to me to equalise their
HGAs, even if we do not have a lot of data to judge the HGAs of GWS yet.Another change I made was to reduce by a
goal Geelong’s HGA in Geelong against other Victorian teams. This makes it no
more than Sydney’s HGA against Victorian teams which made sense to me given
Geelong is a hell of a lot closer to Melbourne than Sydney is. For games
between Geelong and Victorian teams in Melbourne I am keeping the HGA as
neutral – i.e. zero. I considered giving the Melbourne teams a goal HGA, but
decided against it given that the Cats play a fair amount of home games against
Victorian teams in Melbourne.I have also reduced by a goal Hawthorn’s
HGA in Tasmania against non-Victorian teams. I previously had this as the same
HGA – that is, two goals – as if they played in Melbourne. Based on empirics, a
case could have been made for reducing this further to zero, but given the
Hawks have played a few games in Tasmania per year for some time now I wanted
to maintain some HGA.The table below summarises these
changes:

Home
Ground Advantage

Old

New

QLD
v non QLD

12
pts

12

SA
v non SA

12

12

WA
v non WA

12

12

NSW
v non NSW and non VIC

12

12

VIC
v non VIC

12

12

Swans
v VIC & VIC v Swans

6

6

GWS
v VIC & VIC v GWS

12

6

Cats
v other VIC in Geelong

12

6

Hawks
v non VIC in Tasmania

12

6

Everything
else

0

0

Keep in mind with all this HGA
adjustments are relatively unimportant in terms of determining the rankings.
Generally, over the course of a season, and even over the course of a few
weeks, the HGA adjustments for a team will net out to zero or close to it.
Also, the most weight that any particular game carries in the rankings (which
is the most recent game) is less than nine per cent. Hence, a HGA adjustment of 12
points in a particular game would only affect a team’s ranking by at most one
ranking point.

Given that they have a small effect I am
only going to adjust the HGAs going forward rather than going back and changing
my historical rankings. For the most part these changes will be imperceptible …
but they’ll make me feel a little better about my rankings (I think).

Sunday, February 15, 2015

I watched John
Hughes’ ‘The Breakfast Club’ (1985) all the way through for the first time this
week. For those who have seen it all the way through, you will know that near
the end Allison Reynolds – played by Ally Sheedy – who to date has been the
somewhat shaggy recluse, is given a ‘makeover’ by Molly Ringwald’s more
princess-like character. She changes her jacket for a frilly dress, takes her
hair out of her eyes, and puts a pretty bow in it, going from this to this:

Some fans of
the film are apparently less than thrilled by this scene. (This
article pretty much sums up the views that I read.) The first reason is
that Allison looked far more interesting and unique before the makeover and her
look fitted well with her personality. I agree with this. The second thing
people seem to take issue with though is that the jock Andrew Clark – played by
Emilio Estevez – only falls for her after she looks like a conventional beauty.I didn’t see
things that way when I saw the scene. When Andrew sees the ‘new’ Allison, this
is what he says:Andrew: ‘Nothing’s wrong, it’s just … you’re just so different!’ … You
can see your face!’Allison: Is that good or bad?Andrew: It’s good.From that I
took that Andrew didn’t necessarily think one look was that much better than
the other – they were just different, and each had its particular charms, with
the charms of the ‘princess’ look being that you could see Allison’s face. And
as for the comments that Andrew only fell for Allison when she donned a pretty
dress … maybe I misread, but he seemed pretty into her before that scene. So
yeah, I liked Allison’s look more before the makeover, but I have no real
problem with the scene. I suspect people also feel strongly about Allison’s
pre-makeover look because it makes a better costume for those ‘80s parties.

Monday, February 9, 2015

This year
the Productivity Commission, on request from the Commonwealth Government, will undertake an inquiry into Australia’s
workplace relations framework. Australia’s industrial relations system has already
undergone a fair bit of “reform” in recent years – WorkChoices in 2005, the
Fair Work Act in 2009, not to mention the changes that occurred in the 1980s
and ‘90s. Some of these changes could be argued to have been ideologically
motivated, and I suspect some of the next set of changes will seem to be
ideologically motivated as well. Nevertheless, I am somewhat interested in the
idea of economists taking a good long look at Australia’s WR framework,
particularly in areas that have not been much exposed to that sort of thinking.
Keeping in mind where I am coming from, the questions the PC has asked in its
recently released Issues Papers look to me to be for the most part
the right ones, and generally cover at least to some extent the many sides of
workplace relations debates.One area
where I will be particularly interested in what the PC concludes is the provision of a safety net. The PC has indicated that they are
going to examine where the balance should lie between wage regulation and the
tax and the transfer system in addressing concerns about income distribution
(Issues Paper 2, p.7). I think it unlikely that the PC will recommend
abolishing minimum wages completely, but from the outside I think there is not
an insignificant chance that they may recommend some combination of a (possibly
lower) minimum wage, and an in-work benefit such as an earned income tax
credit. One of the arguments for relying on an earned income tax credit as
opposed to minimum wages to help address income inequality is that they impose
less of a cost on employers, hence improving employment outcomes. Another
argument is that they target low-income households more effectively, whereas
some minimum wage workers are from high-income households, such as secondary
income earners. Like most things in workplace relations though, the evidence
for this is very much contested. One could also say that, historically, a
minimum wage is as much about getting a ‘fair’ income from working as it is a
mechanism for addressing inequality.More likely
to be subject to greater scrutiny I think are penalty rates and junior rates of
pay. The PC cites an argument (Issues Paper 2, p. 14) that higher penalty rates
of pay for weekends are inappropriate for some sectors where Australia has
shifted towards a ‘24/7’ timetable. Again, abolishing penalty rates for certain
sectors seems to me a relatively unlikely recommendation, but the PC may
recommend revisiting some of the magnitudes of the rates. Ditto with junior
rates – that is the wage rates paid to juniors, which are less than adult
minimum wages – these could be re-assessed depending upon any findings that the
PC has regarding the relative productivity of adult and junior employees.I mentioned
in a previous post that it would not surprise me if the
inquiry recommended dropping individual flexibility arrangements. These are meant to (at least in theory) allow
employers and employees to vary the collective working conditions of an
employer’s workforce for an employee’s individual circumstances. However, the
evidence shows that they are not widely used, with employers preferring to use informal
documents to grant an employee flexible working arrangements.Unfair
dismissals could be another interesting area. I may well be wrong, but I am not
sure that the economic effects of unfair dismissal arrangements in Australia have
ever been analysed in detail. The PC has asked submissions to address what the
effects of these arrangements are on firm costs, productivity, recruitment
processes, employment, and employment structures (Issues Paper 4, p. 3). Workplace relations
participants have a lot of assumptions about the effects of unfair dismissals –
it will be interesting to see which ones hold up to close scrutiny.Anything
else? Oh yes there will be the usual PC aim of reducing ‘red tape’. In fairness
though there is a lot of complexity in the workplace relations system, and it
is probably one of those areas that could do with a bit less ‘fat’ in its laws
and regulations.The PC’s draft report is due out mid-year, with
the final report to government due on 30 November. Depending on what arises out
of those I may have some more to say on the inquiry then.

Sunday, February 1, 2015

5.Sitting Up On Our Crane –
PondPond have
just released their sixth album in seven
years, to try and keep pace with fellow freaksters King Gizzard and the
Lizard Wizard’s five
albums in the past three years. Is there some kind of shaggy, stoned-out,
cosmic competition going on here? What do we call it? Psych-Wars? Battle of the
Bong? My Crane is Higher Than Your Crane? Are we even sure that Pond and King Gizzard are not just
the same band here? I’ve never got a good look at their faces … though that may
be because each time my mind has been a bit under the influence itself. (By
beer, I mean – I’m not freaky at all.)4.Nobody’s Empire – Belle and
SebastianOn their
ninth album Belle and Sebastian have decided that they want to try and make
their fans dance, like the ‘girls in peacetime’ of the album title. Which is
strange, because I know Belle and Sebastian fans, and they don’t dance, and if
they do dance, they generally dance badly, and if they did want to dance, it
wouldn’t be to Belle and Sebastian. In any case ‘Nobody’s Empire’ follows on in
the tradition of other great Belle and Sebastian opening tracks (‘The State I’m
In’, ‘The Stars of Track and Field’) by getting the album moving, and drawing
you into Belle and Sebastian’s own little music box world. (That opening line ‘Lying
in bed/I was feeling French’ is a bit ‘arch’
though.)3.Fangless – Sleater-KinneyThe longer
you’re away, the more important you become. Were Sleater-Kinney ever really this
important? On the American west coast, sure, but they barely registered
here in Australia, and I think a lot of other places as well. Seems to me there
is a bit of ‘Carrie-Brownstein-in-Portlandia’ revisionism going on here.
Nevertheless they are a very good band, and their first album in ten years is
certainly a fine return; perfect for those who miss that ‘90s-style rock, and
those who wish they were there to hear it in the first place.

2.Marshall Law – Kate TempestOn first
listen: I thought this was a song set in a bar making general observations
about fashionably-dressed posers. On second listen: it seemed to be a song
about a specific girl, Becky, and her night around the crew of an artist
calling himself Marshall Law, who despite sharing the same name as this
character seemed to be a figure similar to Gideon
Graves in the Scott Pilgrim series. On third listen: it’s not really about either
of those characters, but a third character who Becky takes a fancy to, and then
they start talking, and well … listen for yourself. Let me just say I thought Becky
was a bit harsh. But then again it probably reflects how a lot of people’s
nights out really end.1.Stars – Angel OlsenThe Kate
Tempest and Angel Olsen songs listed here are both actually from 2014 releases,
indicating that not much tends to be released in the first few weeks of the
year as people catch up on those ‘best-of-year’ albums from the year before. Angel
Olsen’s second album, ‘Burn Your Fire For No Witness’ was a revelation to me –
half of it acoustic folk, but then the other half taking off for epic tracks
like this one. I then went back and listened to her first album, but that one –
which is pretty much all acoustic folk – didn’t really do much for me. But this
album seems to be a marked improvement, and if she keeps going like this, I’m
really looking forward to her next releases. I’m also hoping to catch her at
the Laneway Festival this weekend, and hoping that she plays this track, but we’ll
have to see how the day goes.