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Aaron Bruski

Draft Preview

The Bruski 150

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ROUND 3

25. Paul George (9-cat: 16, ADP: End of 3rd Round) – Near the top of the hype list heading into this season, the hype has gotten more real as Danny Granger’s knee is still not yet 100 percent. Magic Johnson said it on a broadcast the other day and in a rare stroke of insight he pointed out that the Pacers may choose to pass the baton if Granger takes a while to get up to speed. Frank Vogel paved the way for that on Monday with a warning about a potential slow start, and while George won’t be the only beneficiary of such things he’ll be the first one. Still, though, as I’ve mentioned the Pacers are extremely deep and Gerald Green has been turning heads on a regular basis since he has arrived in Indy. I won’t blame anybody for having George higher, as 1-2 injuries could have him blasting holes in your opposition on a nightly basis. Saturday update: Danny Granger's knee situation is bad enough to move George up to the top-end of the third round. My sense is that Granger plays through the injury, but George's floor just rose by about a round as he'll get a bigger workload and/or be the man on the perimeter for the Pacers.

26. Al Horford (9-cat: 25, ADP: Early 3rd Round) – The calf injury from earlier in the week turned out to be minor, and it’s all systems go for Horford who put up top-25 value on a per-game basis in 2010-11. And with Joe Johnson gone, all three of Horford, Josh Smith, and Jeff Teague are going to enjoy more touches. He would be higher if not for some concerns about the year off, but is otherwise a rock solid pick in the third round.

27. Ersan Ilyasova (9-cat: 14, ADP: Late 5th Round) – I’m a believer, if anything because the erratic Scott Skiles will have a hard time benching him after the Bucks signed him to a long-term big money deal. Of course, the hook here is the top-20 value he had as a starter last season in just 29 mpg. Now the career 44.5% shooter is not going to shoot 53% like he did during that span, but he’ll shoot closer to the 49% he averaged last season. He’s simply more accurate now. Otherwise, all of his counting stats during that binge were in a normal range, and the only issue is whether or not he gets minutes – and I think he will.

28. Anthony Davis (9-cat: 7, ADP: Mid 4th Round) – I’m itching to bump him up the rankings even further with New Orleans looking like they need to hold local tryouts. Outside of Greivis Vasquez, Ryan Anderson, Austin Rivers (ankle), and Eric Gordon (knee) if he can ever get healthy, the Hornets don’t have anybody else to put the ball in the hole. To start his evaluation I looked at Serge Ibaka’s numbers from last season (9.1 PPG, 7.5 REBs, 0.5 STLs, 3.7 BLKs, 53.5% FGs, 66.1% FTs on 1.8 FTA/gm), and looking at Davis’ numbers from Kentucky (14.2 PPG, 10.4 REBs, 1.4 STLs, 4.7 BLKs, 62.3% FGs, 70.9% FTs on 5.1 FTA/gm) I can’t see how Davis doesn’t meet or beat most of them in the NBA. Ibaka was a top-24 play in 8-cat leagues this year, and unlike Ibaka the No. 1 overall pick is going to get as much run as he can handle. On top of that, it looks like the offense is going to be run through him a whole lot more than people thought heading into the preseason. And unlike Ibaka last year, he looks green-lighted to shoot from 3-point distance.

29. Nicolas Batum (9-cat: 17, ADP: Mid 4th Round) – A slow start to the preseason may have curbed some of the enthusiasm, but that should end after his 27-point outing on Monday. I get a lot of questions about whether he or Paul George is the better play this season, and I have them very close as you will see, but the lack of depth in Portland compared to the Pacers’ logjams is the difference here. Batum was a top-36 play in 8-cat leagues in April last year and a top-45 play after Nate McMillan was fired, and Portland didn’t pay all that money to have him maintain the status quo. Saturday update: You'll notice that Batum has fallen behind both George and Davis. First, on George, the big knock on him has been the log-jam in Indy, but that might clear up now that Danny Granger's knee isn't looking so great. As for Davis, he's been electric during the preseason and he would be ranked higher if not for normal rookie risks. He's shown enough to go above Batum, and if you want to reach for Davis I'm not gonna stop you.

30. Paul Pierce (9-cat: 36, ADP: Mid 4th Round) – It’s easy to fall into the axiom that young players are good and old players are bad, and looking around the fantasy landscape across all sports it seems we’re seeing a lot of swings and misses because it. Especially in the case of players that shy away from contact and know how to handle themselves on the court (Tim Duncan comes to mind), they can stay healthy and productive even if their minutes are managed. In Boston, Doc Rivers isn’t going to risk anything with his key vets and while that may work against them at times, it keeps them healthy over the long haul. And what’s unique about Bean Town is that they lack the depth to take the ball out of their primary playmakers’ hands, so Rajon Rondo, Paul Pierce, and Kevin Garnett are going to remain extremely productive as long as they stay on the court. I have Pierce, as rock solid as they come when it comes to producing, ahead of Paul George and it’s yet again a question of Indy’s depth and the chance George slides a bit as a result. With Pierce, we know what’s coming down the chute.

31. Marc Gasol (9-cat: 24, ADP: End of 2nd Round) – Underrated in real life, and perhaps underrated on this list, my primary concern about his value heading into this year is that some of his numbers give the impression that he has plateaued. He played 36.5 mpg last season, finishing with top-15 cumulative value and top-30 per-game value in 8-cat formats, and taking a larger role in the offense he saw his FG% dip 4.5 points to 48.2% on the heels of three more shot attempts per game. That type of drop isn’t a shock when players take on more shot attempts, and maybe he regresses back to the mean (52.8 career FG%), but the real issue is whether or not we should be counting on his durability or such a heavy workload. At a center position that is usually exposed to more injury risks, it’s fair to wonder if the Grizzlies don’t back off a bit especially now that Darrell Arthur (leg) is back in the fold at some point.

32. Greg Monroe (9-cat: 37, ADP: Mid 3rd Round) – Monroe peaked in the middle of last season but appeared to run out of gas down the stretch, which may be why he isn’t gaining more attention in fantasy quarters. Nobody is really down on him, though, and his ADP reflects owners’ optimism but don’t be surprised if he slips every once in a while in drafts. The lack of blocks (0.7) can be a point of frustration, but beyond that there isn’t much to complain about beyond his free throw shooting, which improved nearly 12 percent over his rookie mark of 62.2 percent. That seems like a point in his favor on the surface, but when you look more closely you see that he steadily dropped from 80 percent in February to 62 percent in April. While a step backwards there could inhibit his upside, Monroe is a relatively safe play in the third round and in the fourth round he’ll be a steal.

33. Rajon Rondo (9-cat: 70, ADP: Late 2nd Round) – Keeping in mind that these are Roto rankings, owners are free to move him up their draft boards if they want to employ a punting strategy with points, free throws, and turnovers. The main problem with Rondo that has eroded his value over the years has been his waning efficiency, which includes a two-year drop in FG% of six percentage points and last year a 0.5 drop in steals per game to 1.8. Yes, he’s going to take on more responsibility with Ray Allen out, but it’s hard to project a big jump knowing that he is already fully integrated into the offense. Throw in some questions about his durability and you get a ranking that is more conservative than some I’ve seen around the way.

34. Jrue Holiday (9-cat: 49, ADP: Mid 5th Round) – Don’t be surprised if this ranking creeps upward, as Holiday and his coaches have shown in the preseason that he is going to run things and might end up as the team’s No. 1 option if Andrew Bynum (knee) doesn’t get his act together. Any concerns about Evan Turner raining on his parade by taking over the Andre Iguodala role have been quieted by Turner’s nagging injuries and quiet preseason. Holiday posted top-45 value on a per-game basis in 10-11 before disappointing owners last year, and with Iguodala gone he could be the common thread on a lot of winning fantasy squads.

35. Monta Ellis (9-cat: 61, ADP: Mid 4th Round) – Ellis was surprisingly easy to project this year, as his numbers in Milwaukee were virtually identical to his Golden State numbers except for two notable differences – his scoring and his 3-point shot. He lost 4.3 ppg and 0.8 threes after the trade, which isn’t surprising given the fact he had to find a way to play next to Brandon Jennings, which actually turned out to be a pretty good arrangement on offense. Naturally, Ellis has already shown this preseason that he’s ready to hit the three, while putting up a handful of big lines. He posted top-35 value last season despite the late season swoon, and if he gets the 3-point shooting ironed out he has top-15 upside.

36. Dwight Howard (9-cat: 63, ADP: Mid 2nd Round) – Howard’s ADP will probably rise now that he is back on the court, and keeping in mind this is a Roto list owners will have to adjust for Head-to-Head leagues in which a free throw punting strategy is employed. He put up top-35 value on a per-game basis last season, and has a real chance to improve his field goal percentage, blocks, and even his scoring in a best-case scenario. The downside is that the Lakers have plenty of cooks in the kitchen and they limit his minutes a bit to protect their investment.

ROUND 4

37. Dirk Nowitzki (9-cat: 44, ADP: Mid 2nd Round) – This ADP is influenced by early drafts that didn’t account for his recent surgery, and like Kevin Love ranking him is a bit of a chore. Before considering any knee injury, we can see that he posted No. 22 per-game value last season after a slow start. A six-point drop in field goal percentage last season to 45.7% matched the eye-test, as Dirk couldn’t get shots off as well as he could during the Mavs' title run. The most recent news indicated that he had a less invasive surgery that could result in a three-week timeline rather than six weeks, though Dirk held a press conference that was in all likelihood setup to manage everybody’s expectations. If the surgery was indeed on the lighter side, it bodes well for Dirk’s chances to return to his normal self at a faster rate, and in a best-case scenario it will help him bounce back shooting the ball, too. This ranking is going to wobble, and if he clears this hurdle with flying colors then there aren’t too many players with his durability and consistency.

38. Andre Iguodala (9-cat: 38, ADP: End of 3rd Round) – Everybody is enamored with Iggy, and I for one have miscalculated his ability to fend off what looked to be a brutal knee/Achilles’ combo from two years back. Watching him in the Olympics it was clear that all of his athleticism was intact, and moving into Denver’s potent offense Iguodala has made everybody from fantasy owners to Nuggets coaches giddy with optimism. Last season saw him post top-36 value, and if George Karl has anything to do with it he’ll take a small step forward. I’d have him higher if I wasn’t still concerned about his odometer, as well as the deep bench Karl has to spell Iggy with if he chooses.

39. Wesley Matthews (9-cat: 29, ADP: 6th Round) – It’s pretty crazy how low under the radar he is flying, as he posted top-45 8-cat cumulative value in a down year and turned it on down the stretch with top-22 per-game value after Nate McMillan was fired. His low ranking has as much to do with the guys ahead of him as it does himself, as it’s a tough road to hoe fighting for space in the early rounds. The Blazers are going to rely on their core unit more than all but a few teams in the league, and the addition of PG Damian Lillard is going to make life easier. Matthews has not missed a game in his three-year career, but he has probably traded in some long-term durability after he slogged through a severe ankle injury that’s over a year old. Still, though, he has that warrior mentality that fantasy owners can’t get enough of.

40. Stephen Curry (9-cat: 40, ADP: Mid to Late 3rd Round) -- This ADP may be worthless as we've seen Curry go off the board early and late, and as we saw earlier in the week his value can turn on a dime, unlike his ankle. There is one school of thought that I have not accounted for here, and that is that an owner can take Curry earlier if they commit to handcuffing him with Jarrett Jack. And owners needing a stash at PG would be wise to take Jack and block said owners' attempts at going big AND having a safety blanket. As for Curry's standalone value, this is total guesswork since it's anybody's guess when his ankle will split in half on the court. Measuring the risk, I looked to place Curry just ahead of players that projected to be about 2-3 rounds behind his expected value. With the potential to be a top-5 fantasy play on a per-game basis, a potential 30 rank advantage in the tough-to-crack elite section of the big board is a pretty good ROI. Even though I trust the Warriors about as far as I can throw Don Nelson, we have to take some of what they said about the injury not being serious at face value. With 10-15 missed games, Curry still has a shot at outproducing some of the names below.

41. David Lee (9-cat: 41, ADP: Early 4th Round) -- Lee is about as consistent as they come right now, unless your league counts turnstile defense or statuesque rotations as a category. He posted top-30 value on a per-game basis last season, and prior to Andrew Bogut's predictable ankle issues I had Lee taking an incremental hit in value to accommodate for Bogut's presence. I'm going to hold off on moving him up until Bogut is threatening to miss weeks and not days.

42. Marcin Gortat (9-cat: 30, ADP: Mid 4th Round) -- Aside from some poor foul shooting, Gortat's numbers were simply an extension of the two additional minutes he received (32) per game. And playing all 66 games last year, the newly named Polish Gazelle knocked on the door of second round value in 8-cat formats. The only difference between this year and last is the PG position, where Steve Nash is replaced by Goran Dragic, who likes to score a bit more than Nash but has no shortage of passing skill. If anything, the penetration and athleticism that Dragic brings to the table could create more open layups for Gortat. His minutes are virtually guaranteed with Channing Frye (heart) out for the year, and we like his chances of duplicating or improving upon last year's numbers.

43. Klay Thompson (9-cat: 50, ADP: Mid 5th Round) -- I'm a bit surprised at this ADP because I've seen him go earlier in a bunch of drafts, and the hype surrounding Thompson is about as hot as it gets. His team and their media outlets have made him the GSW poster boy, and Mark Jackson has worked hand-in-hand with management to make sure that Thompson has an ultra green light. More than most franchises, owners Joe Lacob and Peter Guber have their 'guys,' and they will stop at nothing to show to the world that they got it right and/or hang out with David Lee at the Cheesecake Factory one night. This is the long way of saying that he's money in the bank, and offensively he is already a top scorer in the league with tremendous upside. Defensive issues included, it would be a shock if Thompson doesn't play 32-35 mpg and produce for owners on a nightly basis. He posted top-40 value as a starter down the stretch as options No. 1, 2, and 3 for the Dubs, and that's the only bad thing I have to say about his fantasy value this year. He won't get that type of freedom or play in nearly as much garbage action, so I've projected his per-game numbers to take about a one round hit.

44. Ryan Anderson (9-cat: 32, ADP: Early 5th Round) -- I gave a preview of this in the opening, but it was funny to hear analysts everywhere talk about Dwight Howard's impact on Ryan Anderson shooting threes, despite a clear lack of a post game and defense that tended to play him straight up. So I looked at every 3-pointer he made and watched for anything that could be remotely considered evidence that Howard had assisted in creating the shot. Frankly, Howard did very little to impact Anderson's 3-point shooting, and the real impetus for those threes came as the Magic's solid passing unit continuously found Anderson in the pattern, who is excellent at getting open by simply breaking at the precise moment defensive attention is being spent elsewhere. About halfway through the near 200 3PMs I had seen enough, and immediately began worrying about the Hornets' sticky finger ball-handling crew. 'No Pass' Austin Rivers, 'No Pass' Eric Gordon, and no veterans like Hedo Turkoglu, Jameer Nelson, and J.J. Redick to deliver him the ball. Anderson talked about his struggles a few days ago, and improved the next time out to 4-of-12 from the field, echoing all of this sentiment by explaining that he's not a one-on-one player. In a few ways, the longer Rivers and Gordon are off the court the better it will be for Anderson, who is more likely to be fed by the cast of youngsters than the two so-called franchise players. I do believe that Anderson could see up to three rounds chopped off of his top-30 value from last season, but he'll probably land somewhere in the middle of that spread. Saturday update: A couple of better outings showed that his upside does actually exist as a matter of evidence, as the absence of that had pushed him down the board a few days ago.

45. Damian Lillard (9-cat: 81, ADP: Late 5th Round) -- Man this guy can play. Yes, we're going to have tough stretches with the rookie and nobody can expect him to come in and dominate, but he has the skillset to do just that. Play too far off and he can stick the three, come too close and he's by you. The preseason numbers have been there, and the entire team has warmed to him as their floor general going forward. Flanked by shooter and scorers at arguably every starting position, I'm not certain that in a few days I won't have him climbing just a bit higher on this list.

46. Raymond Felton (9-cat: 67, ADP: Mid to Late 6th Round) -- Ironically, the man Lillard replaced in Portland goes right behind him on The 150, and enters the season as the butt of jokes and object of hate amongst many in the media. As a result, you may have heard some not so flattering things. Well, here are the facts. He had top-25 value in April and top-33 value once Nate McMillan was fired. He admitted he came into camp as a tub of lard, and he was just awful at times, especially when teams stopped covering his 3-point shot. Nate McMillan's teams have always had some sort of underlying frustration that boils over, and Felton was the most recent example of that as he and his teammates rolled over for Nate Dogg and exploded under interim coach Caleb Kanales. All of this points to two issues that can and will improve Felton's outlook, which are his conditioning and his state of mind. Back in New York, he has arrived in camp in shape and has played good, aggressive basketball. When Amare Stoudemire returns, he has a strong connection with him on the pick-and-roll. He and Melo seem to get along, and I'm sorry but 93-year old Jason Kidd isn't cutting into Dough Boy's diet of minutes and touches. We saw him post top-20 per-game value back in New York in 2010-11, and along with the post-McMillan numbers he has upside, a decent floor, and he's durable with about three games missed per year in seven seasons.

47. Andrew Bynum (9-cat: 71, ADP: 16th Overall) -- I'm pretty shocked that his ADP is still this high, so needless to say I won't have him anywhere. Following Wednesday's news that he's not going to play until he's pain free, and us having knowledge that his conditioning is as bad as the reports say it is, he carries even more risk than Stephen Curry because we don't know if he'll be able to post those big elite numbers whenever he's healthy. I used the same concept to rank Bynum as I used with Curry and others that have opened the year with serious injury risk, looking to earn about three rounds of expected value above and beyond what is available on the board when it's my turn to make a decision on the risk. When you factor in Bynum's well-below-par intangibles, effort, leadership, etc., I'm willing to let somebody else get the best of me on a decision to pass.

48. Marcus Thornton (9-cat: 42, ADP: Mid 5th Round) -- Lil' Buckets might need a name change to Big Buckets, as he is quickly becoming one of the league's most underrated big shot makers. Thornton is easily the Kings' best scorer and though management and the coach have created a sloppy mess of a situation, he is luckily a constant that can get his offense regardless of what sort of chaos is being orchestrated. It would be crazy for him not to come off the bench so Tyreke can start and get half of his minutes at his preferred SG position. Likewise, it would also behoove Thornton to be the primary gunner for the second unit where ball-stoppers Evans and DeMarcus Cousins can't salt his game. Regardless, whether he starts or not, Thornton is going to play 32-34 mpg. Matching his No. 42 per-game ranking last season should be an even-money bet.

We’re knee deep in draft week around here so let’s get into what this list is all about. For your peace of mind, I have unintentionally grown a Spencer Hawes mullet during this year’s round of pre-draft research. Sleep has been optional and my friends and family aren’t quite sure if I’m alive. No joke, my fiancé looks at me like I’m Leonardo DiCaprio in that Howard Hughes movie circa the pee jar scene.

The process includes a huge statistical element where I look for baselines, outliers, and trends, and then I apply the player’s environment in accordance with a reality check. I look for ranges of values, and ultimately line guys up based on injury-risk, expected production, and the ease with which they can attain their fantasy value.

This list is not going to match our draft guide rankings, as that is a compilation of a lot of input from our entire team. As a result, you’ll see that I’m afforded the chance to be more aggressive with my rankings so keep in mind that some of what you see may not strike a chord with our voice or the industry voice.

Lastly, all values are written from the perspective of 8-cat Roto leagues, and I have included in parenthesis each player's 9-cat ranking as well. The reason I use Roto rankings for my baseline ranking set is because it is a pure value that I can always adjust for a punting strategy, head-to-head, or whatever the format is.

Probably the most important thing to consider about this list is that it is not a directive to draft guys as I’ve ordered them. Try to get as much Average Draft Position (ADP) data as you can from various sources and draft accordingly.

I will update this article periodically, and let you know when that update occurred right here: Updated as of SUNDAY AT 6:00 ET.

So without further ado, I give to you the Bruski 150. Good luck out there.

EARLY ROUNDS (1-4)

ROUND 1

1. Kevin Durant (9-cat: 1, ADP: No. 1 or No. 2) – This is just a personal preference and in this case I’m choosing Durant’s youth against LeBron’s mileage, and the likelihood LBJ will be rested a few more games than Durant.

2. LeBron James (9-cat: 2, ADP: No. 1 or No. 2) – The No. 2 pick in fantasy hoops is actually better than the first pick, since you get a better selection in the next round of the draft and the two candidates are pretty much equal.

3. Russell Westbrook (9-cat: 9, ADP: 5th overall) – If healthy, I’m fairly confident that Chris Paul will outperform Westbrook, but if I can get one of the league’s most durable players at this stage I’m doing it.

4. Chris Paul (9-cat: 3, ADP: 3rd Overall) – His thumb injury clearly isn’t a problem and he has looked great in preseason action. Two years ago I said that this was the season I was concerned about with regard to his knee injury, but after a year of dragging his leg up and down the court he hasn’t shown any signs of it hurting him. On a very deep team including Eric Bledsoe, Chauncey Billups, and Jamal Crawford, the Clippers have plenty of ways to spell Paul if he ever needs a breather.

5. Josh Smith (9-cat: 10, ADP: 10th Overall) – A top-7 play cumulatively last season, no Joe Johnson means a lot of Josh, and it doesn’t hurt that the Hawks aren’t very deep. Sure there are concerns about him shooting (and missing) a ton of threes or long jumpers, but if it makes you feel any better he survived last year’s increased FGAs with only a two percent decrease (a typical volume increase impact). He’s due for a regression on his FT shooting after an 8.5 percent drop last season that was four percent below his career mark.

6. Kyrie Irving (9-cat: 20, ADP: 11th Overall) – This is where the draft begins to get funky in my opinion, because we’re projecting an awfully big leap for the uber-talented Rookie of the Year. It feels like we’ve set him up for failure in my book, though I look at Dwyane Wade’s rest and durability issues, the ceiling on LaMarcus Aldridge’s fantasy game, and I don’t see anybody beyond them that can out-gun Irving at an elite level.

7. Dwyane Wade (9-cat: 5, ADP: 8th Overall) – Wade dropped to me at No. 14 in 30-Deep (a 30-team league) the other day and I threw a party. Despite playing four less mpg last season, he held his top-5 per-game value once again and it’s a testament to his versatility. Last year’s mark of 17 missed games is not a good look any way you slice it, and owners can expect him to miss more this year, but he still managed a top-25 cumulative value and this year the ratio of games off projects to be a lot better. That looks a lot like a top-15 floor with top-shelf upside.

8. LaMarcus Aldridge (9-cat: 8, ADP: 14th Overall) – Aldridge returned top-12 value on a per-game basis last season before a hip injury required him to have surgery. We haven’t seen anything to suggest that it’s an issue this season, but it’ll linger in the back of our minds. It think he’s at or near his ceiling and I worry about his quickness over the long haul, but for this season he will still be able to get his shot off and get to the spots on the floor that he wants to get to. On a shallow Blazers squad, he will get all he can eat and has a nice, high ‘floor.’

9. Deron Williams (9-cat: 31, ADP: 7th Overall) – This is the first drop-off in terms of drafting tiers, so try to target the top four picks if you’re in a Kentucky Derby Style draft over the fifth, sixth, seventh, and eighth picks. Williams was a top-6 talent on a per-game basis while in Utah for the 2011-12 season, and a top-8 player on a per-game basis last season. He held that value last year despite seeing a 3.9 assist drop per game while playing for a minor league basketball squad. Now with some real pieces in play, Williams is a strong bet to perform at this lofty price for the Nets.

Saturday Update: The ankle situation could end up being minor, but the fact that he wants to wait and get it cleared out at the end of the year suggests it's a chronic issue. I practice risk-avoidance in the first and second rounds in most cases, so I moved him underneath Josh and Kyrie.

Sunday Morning Update: We mostly deal in print news, in other words, we don't get to see or hear about 90% of what we analyze over here when it comes to media reports. That's going to continuously change, though, as local news outfits, ESPN, TNT, and NBC/Comcast aren't the only ones giving video updates anymore. Team blogs and one-man shops are now able to capture interviews on their iPhones if they so choose, and all together the proliferation of video content for fantasy owners will be the next step in this grand game. This particular bit of news isn't from a team blog -- it's from NBA.com, but nevertheless I want to impress upon you how important video news can be. Take a look at this interview with Deron Williams talking about his ankle. Make no mistake, this is a concern. He's not filtered when he talks, saying that he was unable to walk down the street without his ankle hurting and swelling up. Williams also talks about how the decreased explosiveness has impacted his game, as his dissatisfaction comes from not being able to play at his normal elite level, even though his 80% is better than most in the league. When looking at the first round of a fantasy draft, this is more than enough evidence to drop him a few slots once again. Though Dwyane Wade has knee concerns and LaMarcus Aldridge has a hip injury on his resume, the upside of Wade and the guaranteed money that Aldridge is now stack up better than a potentially hindered Williams. He'll go down further if we catch even a whiff of more bad news, too.

10. Kevin Love (9-cat: 6, ADP: 8th Overall) – Love is a tough guy to project, and with 10-14 games crossed off the schedule due to his broken hand -- the format you are in will impact where he goes. This is ranked for Roto, so owners may want to bump him up in playoff leagues and head-to-head formats. I’m not as concerned as others about his hand impacting his shot, as any decision to lay off shooting the three will be accompanied by more rebounds and a higher FG%.

11. Goran Dragic (9-cat: 22, ADP: Mid 3rd Round) – This is where my list is allowed to be more aggressive than our official rankings, which Doc and I basically compile along with feedback from the rest of our crew. My bull-run on Dragic stems from his top-5 ranking as a late season starter in Houston last year, in addition to his unencumbered role for a Phoenix team that he is very comfortable with. Add in his elite-level FT shooting (84% on 4.5 FTA/gm) and it’s my belief he’s being drastically underdrafted.

12. Serge Ibaka (9-cat: 4, ADP: End of 2nd Round) – Ibaka is more of a 9-cat guy, but he still finished with top-24 value in 8-cat leagues last year and did it in just 27 mpg. We here at Rotoworld pride ourselves at being ahead of the curve, and pointing out Scott Brooks' disastrous coaching has been a common thread because 1) it impacted Serge Ibaka tremendously last season and 2) if we're charged with explaining why things happened, we have quite a job going against the same media that voted Brooks into the annually ridiculous Coach of the Year award in 2010. In a case of better late than never, some of the media decided to stop chasing their bad bet this summer -- after Brooks put his Thunder squad at a nightly 20-point disadvantage by overplaying Kendrick Perkins and Derek Fisher in the playoffs. The word is out, and Brooks has officially run out of COY currency to pay for his college-like motivational tactics and coach by narrative philosophy. So while Brooks is stubborn enough to put Ibaka into the same role that he was in last year, Sam 'Teflon Don' Presti just paid the man, and now both of them will catch heat if Ibaka sits the bench while Perkins puts up turnaround jumpshots and lets his man beat him on every other play. The good news is that even in another low-minute scenario, we know what Ibaka will do, and his preseason has seen him add scoring and small doses of 3-point shooting to his repertoire.

ROUND 2

13. Carmelo Anthony (9-cat: 11, ADP: Mid 2nd Round) – When Melo arrived in New York, Amare Stoudemire was the team’s unquestioned leader and the two have passive aggressively struggled for that crown. But with Amare showing up last season out-of-shape and eventually missing 19 games, having a meltdown with a fire extinguisher during the playoffs, and seeing his own effectiveness dwindle – there was no real way for STAT to continue to be the leader of the team. And that’s important because Anthony does real well when he’s the center of his own basketball universe, as evidenced by his top-4 finish in the 16 games after Jeremy Lin (knee) was sidelined. It’s worth noting that Amare was out for all but four of those 16 games, too (Melo ranked 15th in those games), and that’s the scenario we’ll be looking at with Stoudemire out for 2-3 weeks with a cyst. Those cysts are often signs of arthritic conditions, but we knew he was a big injury risk months ago. Either way, the team is no longer his and players have been stocked that fit Anthony’s style.

14. Mike Conley (9-cat: 13, ADP: Early 4th Round) – Conley’s numbers are among the most stable in the league from last year to the year before, and last year he posted top-24 value on the season. We’ve seen him shooting more threes during the preseason and that will be the thing that takes him to the next level. If anything, getting one’s hands on an asset so stable is worth some added consideration.

15. Brandon Jennings (9-cat: 21, ADP: Early 3rd Round) – Jennings, whose FG% used to slaughter owners, has steadily improved in each of his three seasons and outside of one particularly bad month, he was putting up first round numbers on a nightly basis. The best news was that his numbers didn’t dip when Monta Ellis arrived, and in a contract year if Milwaukee doesn’t sign him to an extension he'll be real motivated to hold last year’s top-24 value. At 23 years old, there's plenty of chance he continues to improve, as well.

16. Pau Gasol (9-cat: 12, ADP: Late 2nd Round) – Mr. Consistency brought back No. 9 overall value last year despite being underdrafted in almost every draft I saw, and he’ll have a similarly situated campaign this season as a beneficiary of ‘homely pick syndrome.’ That’s when a big name attached to an aging body no longer returns the type of cachet reserved for players like Kryie Irving, DeMarcus Cousins, and Kevin Love.

17. James Harden (9-cat: 15, ADP: Late 2nd Round) – Harden predictably broke out last year and returned top-20 value, so he should continue to improve and climb up the charts, right? I’m not so sure, as his value dipped the most when he was playing the most and shooting his most, with February’s 11.0 FGA and 46.4 FG% being extremes for him in the wrong directions while having his highest mpg (34) of any month. I can’t see his value falling off by too much, if at all, but assuming he can keep climbing this list with Thabo Sefolosha around and his efficiency in question is a bit much for me. Saturday Night Update: While I've noted that Harden showed signs of lowered efficiency during periods of higher utilization, the move to Houston is undoubtedly a positive. He should get all he can eat on offense and the increase in counting stats should offset any problems with field goal percentage, not to mention he should be more effective in the free throw department. I decided to keep him below Pau simply for the chance that the change of scenery comes with challenges, in particular because of the mental impact of leaving a contender for a pretender. In short, we know what Pau's gonna give us.

18. DeMarcus Cousins (9-cat: 27, ADP: Late 2nd Round) – Speak of the devil, Cousins has been going earlier than this in many drafts I’ve taken part in, but the ADP data says he’s going right next to Pau. This summer has been a mixed bag for Cousins, but when you consider that a year ago it appeared that he might be a red-letter headcase we'll take it. He’s still fiery and is going to get plenty of technicals, with many of them undeserved based on a reputation that IS deserved, but he’s heading in the right direction more or less. The part I don’t like is that his footwork hasn’t improved, he still shows poor defensive fundamentals despite the 1.5 steals and 1.2 blocks per game he achieved last year, and he isn’t going to stop flailing up offensive rebounds toward the hoop. These are often awful shots and help contribute to his 43.9% FG shooting, which along with the turnovers have been the reason he hasn’t cracked the top-30 yet. Ranking him this high shows my confidence level in him, but if he doesn’t make the grade we’ll know exactly why he failed.

19. Paul Millsap (9-cat: 18, ADP: End of 2nd Round) – The writers in Salt Lake City have been writing Millsap’s obituary for over a year now, and they even have new writers replacing old writers that go right to work hanging Derrick Favors' jersey in the rafters. They say Favors should start, but it never happens. And when Favors gets into the game, it’s usually uneventful. I’m not saying Favors doesn’t have a bright future and I’m not saying that he couldn’t force Millsap into a bench role at some point. But breaking out the taps this early doesn’t make sense in fantasy leagues, especially when Millsap can achieve a 30-minute role with the Jazz whether he starts or comes off the bench. He posted last year’s top-6 value in 32 mpg, and he’s still improving as a player. Some added threes wouldn’t surprise me and if the Jazz are dying to get rid of a guy that good, it’s possible his new team will want to carve out a primary role for him.

20. Rudy Gay (9-cat: 23, ADP: Mid 3rd Round) – Gay is another ‘homely’ pick despite the ability to land on highlight reels, as the third or fourth option at times with the under-the-radar Grizzlies doesn’t exactly produce Blake Griffin-like buzz on Twitter. His stats are no different, either, with a little bit of everything to throw into the pot before the concoction boils down to something like last year’s top-12 value. He’d be a higher guy on this list, especially if we give some credence to a potential slide by Zach Randolph, but much of his value came from his durability – and counting on that durability to push him up the charts again is tough when ranking him with the big boys.

21. Ty Lawson (9-cat: 26, ADP: Mid 2nd Round) – I would have Lawson higher on this list if not for Andre Iguodala’s tendency to dip into his PG’s assist numbers, and the slight concern I have that Lawson owns a trick ankle. That said, I expect him to hold his ground and/or improve over last year’s numbers, making him a solid way to spend a second round pick.

22. Al Jefferson (9-cat: 19, ADP: 11th Overall) – This is not a knock on Al Jefferson. I have no problem going forward with the assumption that he can repeat last year’s numbers (49.2 FG%, 77.4 FT%, 19.2 PTS, 9.6 REB, 2.2 AST, 0.8 STL, 1.7 BLK). But he was eerily as productive in 2010-11, but instead of top-16 value on per-game basis (No. 14 overall) like he posted last year he posted just top-32 value. Why is that? Sometimes that’s just how the numbers work out. Players’ production ebbs and flows in each category in a given area of the rankings, and advantages, disadvantages, and the overall value that gets spit out can be drastically different, even while the numbers are the same. Am I willing to bet that he gets the same sort of mathematical benefit this season? No.

23. Kobe Bryant (9-cat: 35, ADP: 12th Overall) – If you want to let me hear it, bring it on. I got it wrong on Kobe last year with my concerns about his wrist, but doing some medical research it’s clear he didn’t experience a full tear of the ligament as was reported. We’ll never know that, but a full tear was expected to take a beating with every catch and fall, whereas Kobe took even more shots and saw the swelling eventually go down. He had a great year otherwise, too, finishing No. 10 in cumulative value while showing very little loss of athleticism for a man with his mileage. So why not get hyped about all the hoopla in L.A. and foresee great things for Kobe as he steps in next to an all-time great distributor in Steve Nash? That's actually the reason. With Nash around Kobe won’t need to go into hero mode like he did last season, and he has already admitted that he’ll be taking a bit of a back seat to Nash on the ball. And with Dwight Howard and Pau Gasol around, not to mention Antawn Jamison, there is no reason for the Lakers to ride Kobe like he’s Secretariat. It wasn’t too long ago in 2010-11 that he mustered up No. 18 per-game value, and I think this year we see something a lot closer to that. (UPDATE: The foot injury isn’t great news, but it’s not moving the ranking. Yet).

24. Kyle Lowry (9-cat: 28, ADP: Mid 4th Round) – That ADP probably reflects the uncertain time last week when he was stuck with a groin injury, but since he has returned to action and promptly hit five threes on Friday that ADP will go back to a mid 2nd round to mid 3rd round level. Lowry is a collector of small, mitigable risks like his injury history from the past three years, his temper and potential attitude risk, and the fact he’s jumping to a new team. To counter those concerns, he is healthy at the moment and is tough as nails, he enjoys a very good relationship with Dwane Casey, and the team is going to build around him. In fantasy we look for calculated risks and this is one of them. Lowry was the No. 8 fantasy play last season on a per-game basis through March 8.

To use the same machinery I used to develop my rankings, complete with personalized cheat sheets, detailed player profiles, tiers, strategy articles, busts, sleepers, bold predictions and more -- click here for Rotoworld's NBA Draft Guide.

ROUND 3

25. Paul George (9-cat: 16, ADP: End of 3rd Round) – Near the top of the hype list heading into this season, the hype has gotten more real as Danny Granger’s knee is still not yet 100 percent. Magic Johnson said it on a broadcast the other day and in a rare stroke of insight he pointed out that the Pacers may choose to pass the baton if Granger takes a while to get up to speed. Frank Vogel paved the way for that on Monday with a warning about a potential slow start, and while George won’t be the only beneficiary of such things he’ll be the first one. Still, though, as I’ve mentioned the Pacers are extremely deep and Gerald Green has been turning heads on a regular basis since he has arrived in Indy. I won’t blame anybody for having George higher, as 1-2 injuries could have him blasting holes in your opposition on a nightly basis. Saturday update: Danny Granger's knee situation is bad enough to move George up to the top-end of the third round. My sense is that Granger plays through the injury, but George's floor just rose by about a round as he'll get a bigger workload and/or be the man on the perimeter for the Pacers.

26. Al Horford (9-cat: 25, ADP: Early 3rd Round) – The calf injury from earlier in the week turned out to be minor, and it’s all systems go for Horford who put up top-25 value on a per-game basis in 2010-11. And with Joe Johnson gone, all three of Horford, Josh Smith, and Jeff Teague are going to enjoy more touches. He would be higher if not for some concerns about the year off, but is otherwise a rock solid pick in the third round.

27. Ersan Ilyasova (9-cat: 14, ADP: Late 5th Round) – I’m a believer, if anything because the erratic Scott Skiles will have a hard time benching him after the Bucks signed him to a long-term big money deal. Of course, the hook here is the top-20 value he had as a starter last season in just 29 mpg. Now the career 44.5% shooter is not going to shoot 53% like he did during that span, but he’ll shoot closer to the 49% he averaged last season. He’s simply more accurate now. Otherwise, all of his counting stats during that binge were in a normal range, and the only issue is whether or not he gets minutes – and I think he will.

28. Anthony Davis (9-cat: 7, ADP: Mid 4th Round) – I’m itching to bump him up the rankings even further with New Orleans looking like they need to hold local tryouts. Outside of Greivis Vasquez, Ryan Anderson, Austin Rivers (ankle), and Eric Gordon (knee) if he can ever get healthy, the Hornets don’t have anybody else to put the ball in the hole. To start his evaluation I looked at Serge Ibaka’s numbers from last season (9.1 PPG, 7.5 REBs, 0.5 STLs, 3.7 BLKs, 53.5% FGs, 66.1% FTs on 1.8 FTA/gm), and looking at Davis’ numbers from Kentucky (14.2 PPG, 10.4 REBs, 1.4 STLs, 4.7 BLKs, 62.3% FGs, 70.9% FTs on 5.1 FTA/gm) I can’t see how Davis doesn’t meet or beat most of them in the NBA. Ibaka was a top-24 play in 8-cat leagues this year, and unlike Ibaka the No. 1 overall pick is going to get as much run as he can handle. On top of that, it looks like the offense is going to be run through him a whole lot more than people thought heading into the preseason. And unlike Ibaka last year, he looks green-lighted to shoot from 3-point distance.

29. Nicolas Batum (9-cat: 17, ADP: Mid 4th Round) – A slow start to the preseason may have curbed some of the enthusiasm, but that should end after his 27-point outing on Monday. I get a lot of questions about whether he or Paul George is the better play this season, and I have them very close as you will see, but the lack of depth in Portland compared to the Pacers’ logjams is the difference here. Batum was a top-36 play in 8-cat leagues in April last year and a top-45 play after Nate McMillan was fired, and Portland didn’t pay all that money to have him maintain the status quo. Saturday update: You'll notice that Batum has fallen behind both George and Davis. First, on George, the big knock on him has been the log-jam in Indy, but that might clear up now that Danny Granger's knee isn't looking so great. As for Davis, he's been electric during the preseason and he would be ranked higher if not for normal rookie risks. He's shown enough to go above Batum, and if you want to reach for Davis I'm not gonna stop you.

30. Paul Pierce (9-cat: 36, ADP: Mid 4th Round) – It’s easy to fall into the axiom that young players are good and old players are bad, and looking around the fantasy landscape across all sports it seems we’re seeing a lot of swings and misses because it. Especially in the case of players that shy away from contact and know how to handle themselves on the court (Tim Duncan comes to mind), they can stay healthy and productive even if their minutes are managed. In Boston, Doc Rivers isn’t going to risk anything with his key vets and while that may work against them at times, it keeps them healthy over the long haul. And what’s unique about Bean Town is that they lack the depth to take the ball out of their primary playmakers’ hands, so Rajon Rondo, Paul Pierce, and Kevin Garnett are going to remain extremely productive as long as they stay on the court. I have Pierce, as rock solid as they come when it comes to producing, ahead of Paul George and it’s yet again a question of Indy’s depth and the chance George slides a bit as a result. With Pierce, we know what’s coming down the chute.

31. Marc Gasol (9-cat: 24, ADP: End of 2nd Round) – Underrated in real life, and perhaps underrated on this list, my primary concern about his value heading into this year is that some of his numbers give the impression that he has plateaued. He played 36.5 mpg last season, finishing with top-15 cumulative value and top-30 per-game value in 8-cat formats, and taking a larger role in the offense he saw his FG% dip 4.5 points to 48.2% on the heels of three more shot attempts per game. That type of drop isn’t a shock when players take on more shot attempts, and maybe he regresses back to the mean (52.8 career FG%), but the real issue is whether or not we should be counting on his durability or such a heavy workload. At a center position that is usually exposed to more injury risks, it’s fair to wonder if the Grizzlies don’t back off a bit especially now that Darrell Arthur (leg) is back in the fold at some point.

32. Greg Monroe (9-cat: 37, ADP: Mid 3rd Round) – Monroe peaked in the middle of last season but appeared to run out of gas down the stretch, which may be why he isn’t gaining more attention in fantasy quarters. Nobody is really down on him, though, and his ADP reflects owners’ optimism but don’t be surprised if he slips every once in a while in drafts. The lack of blocks (0.7) can be a point of frustration, but beyond that there isn’t much to complain about beyond his free throw shooting, which improved nearly 12 percent over his rookie mark of 62.2 percent. That seems like a point in his favor on the surface, but when you look more closely you see that he steadily dropped from 80 percent in February to 62 percent in April. While a step backwards there could inhibit his upside, Monroe is a relatively safe play in the third round and in the fourth round he’ll be a steal.

33. Rajon Rondo (9-cat: 70, ADP: Late 2nd Round) – Keeping in mind that these are Roto rankings, owners are free to move him up their draft boards if they want to employ a punting strategy with points, free throws, and turnovers. The main problem with Rondo that has eroded his value over the years has been his waning efficiency, which includes a two-year drop in FG% of six percentage points and last year a 0.5 drop in steals per game to 1.8. Yes, he’s going to take on more responsibility with Ray Allen out, but it’s hard to project a big jump knowing that he is already fully integrated into the offense. Throw in some questions about his durability and you get a ranking that is more conservative than some I’ve seen around the way.

34. Jrue Holiday (9-cat: 49, ADP: Mid 5th Round) – Don’t be surprised if this ranking creeps upward, as Holiday and his coaches have shown in the preseason that he is going to run things and might end up as the team’s No. 1 option if Andrew Bynum (knee) doesn’t get his act together. Any concerns about Evan Turner raining on his parade by taking over the Andre Iguodala role have been quieted by Turner’s nagging injuries and quiet preseason. Holiday posted top-45 value on a per-game basis in 10-11 before disappointing owners last year, and with Iguodala gone he could be the common thread on a lot of winning fantasy squads.

35. Monta Ellis (9-cat: 61, ADP: Mid 4th Round) – Ellis was surprisingly easy to project this year, as his numbers in Milwaukee were virtually identical to his Golden State numbers except for two notable differences – his scoring and his 3-point shot. He lost 4.3 ppg and 0.8 threes after the trade, which isn’t surprising given the fact he had to find a way to play next to Brandon Jennings, which actually turned out to be a pretty good arrangement on offense. Naturally, Ellis has already shown this preseason that he’s ready to hit the three, while putting up a handful of big lines. He posted top-35 value last season despite the late season swoon, and if he gets the 3-point shooting ironed out he has top-15 upside.

36. Dwight Howard (9-cat: 63, ADP: Mid 2nd Round) – Howard’s ADP will probably rise now that he is back on the court, and keeping in mind this is a Roto list owners will have to adjust for Head-to-Head leagues in which a free throw punting strategy is employed. He put up top-35 value on a per-game basis last season, and has a real chance to improve his field goal percentage, blocks, and even his scoring in a best-case scenario. The downside is that the Lakers have plenty of cooks in the kitchen and they limit his minutes a bit to protect their investment.

ROUND 4

37. Dirk Nowitzki (9-cat: 44, ADP: Mid 2nd Round) – This ADP is influenced by early drafts that didn’t account for his recent surgery, and like Kevin Love ranking him is a bit of a chore. Before considering any knee injury, we can see that he posted No. 22 per-game value last season after a slow start. A six-point drop in field goal percentage last season to 45.7% matched the eye-test, as Dirk couldn’t get shots off as well as he could during the Mavs' title run. The most recent news indicated that he had a less invasive surgery that could result in a three-week timeline rather than six weeks, though Dirk held a press conference that was in all likelihood setup to manage everybody’s expectations. If the surgery was indeed on the lighter side, it bodes well for Dirk’s chances to return to his normal self at a faster rate, and in a best-case scenario it will help him bounce back shooting the ball, too. This ranking is going to wobble, and if he clears this hurdle with flying colors then there aren’t too many players with his durability and consistency.

38. Andre Iguodala (9-cat: 38, ADP: End of 3rd Round) – Everybody is enamored with Iggy, and I for one have miscalculated his ability to fend off what looked to be a brutal knee/Achilles’ combo from two years back. Watching him in the Olympics it was clear that all of his athleticism was intact, and moving into Denver’s potent offense Iguodala has made everybody from fantasy owners to Nuggets coaches giddy with optimism. Last season saw him post top-36 value, and if George Karl has anything to do with it he’ll take a small step forward. I’d have him higher if I wasn’t still concerned about his odometer, as well as the deep bench Karl has to spell Iggy with if he chooses.

39. Wesley Matthews (9-cat: 29, ADP: 6th Round) – It’s pretty crazy how low under the radar he is flying, as he posted top-45 8-cat cumulative value in a down year and turned it on down the stretch with top-22 per-game value after Nate McMillan was fired. His low ranking has as much to do with the guys ahead of him as it does himself, as it’s a tough road to hoe fighting for space in the early rounds. The Blazers are going to rely on their core unit more than all but a few teams in the league, and the addition of PG Damian Lillard is going to make life easier. Matthews has not missed a game in his three-year career, but he has probably traded in some long-term durability after he slogged through a severe ankle injury that’s over a year old. Still, though, he has that warrior mentality that fantasy owners can’t get enough of.

40. Stephen Curry (9-cat: 40, ADP: Mid to Late 3rd Round) -- This ADP may be worthless as we've seen Curry go off the board early and late, and as we saw earlier in the week his value can turn on a dime, unlike his ankle. There is one school of thought that I have not accounted for here, and that is that an owner can take Curry earlier if they commit to handcuffing him with Jarrett Jack. And owners needing a stash at PG would be wise to take Jack and block said owners' attempts at going big AND having a safety blanket. As for Curry's standalone value, this is total guesswork since it's anybody's guess when his ankle will split in half on the court. Measuring the risk, I looked to place Curry just ahead of players that projected to be about 2-3 rounds behind his expected value. With the potential to be a top-5 fantasy play on a per-game basis, a potential 30 rank advantage in the tough-to-crack elite section of the big board is a pretty good ROI. Even though I trust the Warriors about as far as I can throw Don Nelson, we have to take some of what they said about the injury not being serious at face value. With 10-15 missed games, Curry still has a shot at outproducing some of the names below.

41. David Lee (9-cat: 41, ADP: Early 4th Round) -- Lee is about as consistent as they come right now, unless your league counts turnstile defense or statuesque rotations as a category. He posted top-30 value on a per-game basis last season, and prior to Andrew Bogut's predictable ankle issues I had Lee taking an incremental hit in value to accommodate for Bogut's presence. I'm going to hold off on moving him up until Bogut is threatening to miss weeks and not days.

42. Marcin Gortat (9-cat: 30, ADP: Mid 4th Round) -- Aside from some poor foul shooting, Gortat's numbers were simply an extension of the two additional minutes he received (32) per game. And playing all 66 games last year, the newly named Polish Gazelle knocked on the door of second round value in 8-cat formats. The only difference between this year and last is the PG position, where Steve Nash is replaced by Goran Dragic, who likes to score a bit more than Nash but has no shortage of passing skill. If anything, the penetration and athleticism that Dragic brings to the table could create more open layups for Gortat. His minutes are virtually guaranteed with Channing Frye (heart) out for the year, and we like his chances of duplicating or improving upon last year's numbers.

43. Klay Thompson (9-cat: 50, ADP: Mid 5th Round) -- I'm a bit surprised at this ADP because I've seen him go earlier in a bunch of drafts, and the hype surrounding Thompson is about as hot as it gets. His team and their media outlets have made him the GSW poster boy, and Mark Jackson has worked hand-in-hand with management to make sure that Thompson has an ultra green light. More than most franchises, owners Joe Lacob and Peter Guber have their 'guys,' and they will stop at nothing to show to the world that they got it right and/or hang out with David Lee at the Cheesecake Factory one night. This is the long way of saying that he's money in the bank, and offensively he is already a top scorer in the league with tremendous upside. Defensive issues included, it would be a shock if Thompson doesn't play 32-35 mpg and produce for owners on a nightly basis. He posted top-40 value as a starter down the stretch as options No. 1, 2, and 3 for the Dubs, and that's the only bad thing I have to say about his fantasy value this year. He won't get that type of freedom or play in nearly as much garbage action, so I've projected his per-game numbers to take about a one round hit.

44. Ryan Anderson (9-cat: 32, ADP: Early 5th Round) -- I gave a preview of this in the opening, but it was funny to hear analysts everywhere talk about Dwight Howard's impact on Ryan Anderson shooting threes, despite a clear lack of a post game and defense that tended to play him straight up. So I looked at every 3-pointer he made and watched for anything that could be remotely considered evidence that Howard had assisted in creating the shot. Frankly, Howard did very little to impact Anderson's 3-point shooting, and the real impetus for those threes came as the Magic's solid passing unit continuously found Anderson in the pattern, who is excellent at getting open by simply breaking at the precise moment defensive attention is being spent elsewhere. About halfway through the near 200 3PMs I had seen enough, and immediately began worrying about the Hornets' sticky finger ball-handling crew. 'No Pass' Austin Rivers, 'No Pass' Eric Gordon, and no veterans like Hedo Turkoglu, Jameer Nelson, and J.J. Redick to deliver him the ball. Anderson talked about his struggles a few days ago, and improved the next time out to 4-of-12 from the field, echoing all of this sentiment by explaining that he's not a one-on-one player. In a few ways, the longer Rivers and Gordon are off the court the better it will be for Anderson, who is more likely to be fed by the cast of youngsters than the two so-called franchise players. I do believe that Anderson could see up to three rounds chopped off of his top-30 value from last season, but he'll probably land somewhere in the middle of that spread. Saturday update: A couple of better outings showed that his upside does actually exist as a matter of evidence, as the absence of that had pushed him down the board a few days ago.

45. Damian Lillard (9-cat: 81, ADP: Late 5th Round) -- Man this guy can play. Yes, we're going to have tough stretches with the rookie and nobody can expect him to come in and dominate, but he has the skillset to do just that. Play too far off and he can stick the three, come too close and he's by you. The preseason numbers have been there, and the entire team has warmed to him as their floor general going forward. Flanked by shooter and scorers at arguably every starting position, I'm not certain that in a few days I won't have him climbing just a bit higher on this list.

46. Raymond Felton (9-cat: 67, ADP: Mid to Late 6th Round) -- Ironically, the man Lillard replaced in Portland goes right behind him on The 150, and enters the season as the butt of jokes and object of hate amongst many in the media. As a result, you may have heard some not so flattering things. Well, here are the facts. He had top-25 value in April and top-33 value once Nate McMillan was fired. He admitted he came into camp as a tub of lard, and he was just awful at times, especially when teams stopped covering his 3-point shot. Nate McMillan's teams have always had some sort of underlying frustration that boils over, and Felton was the most recent example of that as he and his teammates rolled over for Nate Dogg and exploded under interim coach Caleb Kanales. All of this points to two issues that can and will improve Felton's outlook, which are his conditioning and his state of mind. Back in New York, he has arrived in camp in shape and has played good, aggressive basketball. When Amare Stoudemire returns, he has a strong connection with him on the pick-and-roll. He and Melo seem to get along, and I'm sorry but 93-year old Jason Kidd isn't cutting into Dough Boy's diet of minutes and touches. We saw him post top-20 per-game value back in New York in 2010-11, and along with the post-McMillan numbers he has upside, a decent floor, and he's durable with about three games missed per year in seven seasons.

47. Andrew Bynum (9-cat: 71, ADP: 16th Overall) -- I'm pretty shocked that his ADP is still this high, so needless to say I won't have him anywhere. Following Wednesday's news that he's not going to play until he's pain free, and us having knowledge that his conditioning is as bad as the reports say it is, he carries even more risk than Stephen Curry because we don't know if he'll be able to post those big elite numbers whenever he's healthy. I used the same concept to rank Bynum as I used with Curry and others that have opened the year with serious injury risk, looking to earn about three rounds of expected value above and beyond what is available on the board when it's my turn to make a decision on the risk. When you factor in Bynum's well-below-par intangibles, effort, leadership, etc., I'm willing to let somebody else get the best of me on a decision to pass.

48. Marcus Thornton (9-cat: 42, ADP: Mid 5th Round) -- Lil' Buckets might need a name change to Big Buckets, as he is quickly becoming one of the league's most underrated big shot makers. Thornton is easily the Kings' best scorer and though management and the coach have created a sloppy mess of a situation, he is luckily a constant that can get his offense regardless of what sort of chaos is being orchestrated. It would be crazy for him not to come off the bench so Tyreke can start and get half of his minutes at his preferred SG position. Likewise, it would also behoove Thornton to be the primary gunner for the second unit where ball-stoppers Evans and DeMarcus Cousins can't salt his game. Regardless, whether he starts or not, Thornton is going to play 32-34 mpg. Matching his No. 42 per-game ranking last season should be an even-money bet.

MIDDLE ROUNDS (5-8)

ROUND 5

49. Gordon Hayward (9-cat: 48, ADP: 8th Round) -- This will gather plenty of eyeballs and, again, this is where I get to go off the beaten path. Hayward was a top-32 per-game producer as a late season starter and I'm betting that he can hold most of that value, while improving as a player overall. As crazy as it seems in relation to other projections that are out there, the only reason I'm not going higher with this pick is that Mo Williams is an able ball-handler and playmaker, and there are quite a few mouths to feed in Utah. Just remember that Hayward was able to successfully navigate the crowd during his second-half push last year.

53. Jeff Teague (9-cat: 54, ADP: 6th Round) -- Teague's ankle injury has caused him to drop a bit on this list, though not by a whole lot. The only real uncomfortable part about it is that nobody has commented on its severity other than to say he is "day-to-day." Teague posted top-40 and top-30 months (DEC/JAN, APR) on a per-game basis, but often found himself watching Joe Johnson pound the air out of the ball and his aggressiveness was touch and go as a result. Now that Johnson is gone, he will be the team's No. 2 playmaker and third option scoring the ball. A top-36 value on the year and ranked No. 57 on a per-game basis last season, he can have the type of improvement that secures him second round value if everything breaks right.

54. Kevin Martin (9-cat: 53, ADP: End of 7th Round) -- Martin went from no man's land on the draft board and has steadily risen as he resembles the player that was a top-36 player until the beginning of February, when he landed in Kevin McHale's doghouse. If we were to assume that he has starter's minutes and normal productivity coming his way, he would be ranked higher, but this evaluation reflects the risk that things go haywire or the Rockets go young sooner rather than later. Saturday Night Update: After being traded to OKC, the initial thought is to look at the OKC roster, see that they need Martin's scoring, and then to question whether or not a move into a different system/situation/etc could at a minimum lead to a slow start -- but realize this -- the Thunder are going to do everything in their power to make this trade look good. Ever wonder why Kendrick Perkins is still around and getting heavy minutes, even after he gets beat by big men, little men, and doesn't grab any rebounds or block shots? They traded Jeff Green to get the overrated scowler, and they sold the entire building on Perkins' toughness as the missing piece worthy of getting rid of a young, talented player. It speaks to their willingness to double down on front office decisions, with a coach that will do as told, and now they'll have to work overtime to make sure this trade works.

55. JaVale McGee (9-cat: 43, ADP: 6th Round) -- There has been a lot of concern, and rightfully so, that McGee would be hindered by the center logjam in Denver. But as we saw on Thursday night, he is plenty capable of doing damage in limited minutes and it sounds like a reasonable plan for George Karl to put a carrot in front of the youngster. Don't be surprised if he's playing 30 mpg down the stretch when it matters, and we're bemoaning the fact that we didn't reach a bit to grab McGee.

57. Kawhi Leonard (9-cat: 45, ADP: 8th to 9th Round) -- I've seen ADPs even wilder than this, but it's safe to say a quiet preseason has squelched some of the hype, and again, this is not a directive to draft Leonard here. This is just where I think his value would dictate he SHOULD be drafted if all owners were drafting based on this list. They won't be, and many of them will fear that Leonard is all hype and no substance and thus he will fall -- but not too far. Start considering him in the seventh round of an 8-cat draft and measure whether your opposition is plugged in, or if you can buy a round or two while selecting players with higher ADPs in front of Leonard.

59. Tyson Chandler (9-cat: 33, ADP: End of 5th Round) -- Chandler has a bone bruise on his knee and that should never be treated like an everyday contusion, as serious versions can actually take away from the body's ability to generate cartilage and take weeks to go away. But the Knicks players are talking like he should be available for the opener and that suggests the injury is mild. I didn't move him down rank-wise, though I adjusted his outlook slightly for the risk this limits him a bit, even if only for a week or two.

63. Steve Nash (9-cat: 80, ADP: End of 3rd Round) -- He could very well benefit from the Lakers rolling over teams and have better efficiency in general, but there are all sorts of question marks. If they do roll over teams, does that get offset by early nights off? Does he lose efficiency due to all the Lakers' weapons? And, of course, the Lakers have every incentive to cut his minutes and give him days off. If they run away with the No. 1 seed, does he take a whole week or two off to end the year? And at 38 years old, can he hold up? All of that goes into this way-lower-than industry outlook, but I will add that he is more than capable of making this ranking look bad at the end of the year. And I'm okay with that.

66. Kenneth Faried (9-cat: 46, ADP: End of 6th, Early 7th Round) -- The Manimal has drawn plenty of hype in fantasy circles, but only had an exhibition game or two in which he truly flexed his fantasy muscles. This valuation assumes he starts to draw about 30 mpg, with no foul shooting improvement included, and has the chance to hit the jackpot with a 33-35 mpg role. Faried was a top-100 play on average when playing 25 mpg last season.

67. Glen Davis (9-cat: 57, ADP: Early 8th Round) -- Big Baby has been flying up draft boards as owners have been jolted by his preseason production, and some may hazily recall that Davis played at a top-50 level throughout April at a 33.4 mpg clip. During that time the only number that stood out as an outlier was his 50.6 FG%, which was about six points up from his 44.3% career mark. Now he is currently the team's go-to scorer in the fourth quarter and primary option on offense, though one of both of those could change when Arron Afflalo (hamstring) returns, though I wouldn't bet on it. As the incumbent veteran on the squad, it will be Alf's requirement to take those roles as they won't be handed to him. Either way, both players will get more than their fair share of touches on a team that will play for ping pong balls. It would take some doing, but with a little improvement and only a slight regression to his shooting, Davis could meet those marks he set in April. But even if he doesn't, he has a high enough floor to justify such a high ranking.

68. J.R. Smith (9-cat: 51, ADP: 9th Round) -- Smith's ADP might be a bit low because of his ankle/Achilles' issue, but he's nearing a return and that bodes well for owners seeking the top-18 value he had in April last season. During that time he experienced outliers up and down the stat sheet, and a more natural place for his upside to land would be in the top-40 if everything is clicking. More than likely he will settle in the middle of the pack, and with plenty of red flags on the character front we can't get behind a full-scale fantasy assault.

69. Greivis Vasquez (9-cat: 95, ADP: 9th to 10th round or later) -- Vasquez is the type of name that could slide in a very public league draft, but those ADPs are pretty legit coming from competitive environments. I quipped somewhere that he has the best job security in the NBA, as the Hornets might need to hold local tryouts to fill the holes on their bench. Neither Eric Gordon (knee) or Austin Rivers (ankle) can truly play point guard, and they might not be available to help out at this rate (kidding, Rivers will be back soon and Gordon should show his face at least once).

70. Blake Griffin (9-cat: 96, ADP: Mid 3rd Round) -- This ADP includes owners grabbing him higher as a head-to-head play, and also the name value that comes with the nightly highlight reel. This valuation actually assumes he improves over last year's No. 73 per-game ranking, and though he has proven to be durable over the last two years, projecting that after knee scares in the Olympics and in the past is not going to happen. Not to mention he plays a violent brand of basketball.

79. Mo Williams (9-cat: 106, ADP: 7th Round) -- It looks like the ADP has caught up to the hype, and it's promising that he has the chance to exceed the top-75 per-game he posted after being traded to the Clippers (before Chris Paul arrived). During that time he posted fairly normal numbers based on his career arc, but had just 5.2 assists and that is surely to be improved upon. The reason he's not ranked higher is that he is an injury risk, and I've held off the notion of dropping him because of minor groin/abdominal issues (not the food poisoning thing). If you recall his season in Cleveland before the trade was derailed by a groin injury, so it's on the radar for sure.

80. Arron Afflalo (9-cat: 73, ADP: 7th Round) -- Afflalo's ADP is a measure of faith in fantasy circles, as we have yet to see him play a real game for the Magic. I agree in this level of faith, as the top-100 per-game play last season can only improve as the No. 1 or 2 option in the Orlando attack. He also has great immeasurables, a chip on his shoulder after being an afterthought coming out of college, and the cajones to take the big shot. If the hamstring injury wasn't in play he would be higher on this list, but he has shown some history of nagging injuries holding him down.

81. Darren Collison (9-cat: 111, ADP: End of 7th Round) -- Collison flashed big-time upside as a pick-and-roll specialist alongside David West in New Orleans, but was moved into a post-entry offense in Indy and lost a lot of his appeal, struggling to crack the top-100. The move to Dallas certainly helps by giving him a full-time role, but we haven't found the beef so far in the preseason and we certainly have no indication that the pick-and-roll is going to be highlighted on the menu. This ranking essentially says we're not buying a large-scale change in his performance.

82. Gerald Wallace (9-cat: 72, ADP: End of 5th, Early 6th Round) -- A few have wondered why I have him so low. It's pretty straight-forward on my end. A top 30-50 play (or worse) at times last season, I have concerns about touches in a loaded lineup and concerns about him staying healthy. At his ADP, there's no way I'm buying into that.

83. Isaiah Thomas (9-cat: 75, ADP: 7th Round) -- Imagine that, I'm probably not going to own Isaiah Thomas at his current market price. It's not because I don't like the player -- I love the player -- but Keith Smart and the Kings don't and I might make my next PBT piece a story on GMs holding players back so they can re-sign them (see Ibaka, Serge). On Thursday night Keith Smart played his hand whether he'll admit it or not, and that (correctly) puts Thomas at the starting PG position. Aaron Brooks showed he still has the offensive talent he lost late in Houston and then in Phoenix, but as was the case on Thursday when he's off he's a liability on the floor. Maybe Smart saw that and maybe he didn't. But the bottom line is that Thomas gets first crack at leading the team and he has an excellent shot at tilting the position battle in his favor, simply because he's good. This ranking is based on the midpoint of two scenarios, an even time-share in which he produces late-round value, and if he can excel and get 30 mpg the likely mid-round value he will have. He was a top-90 play per-game in February, when his numbers all fit his overall production fingerprint in 25.5 mpg. While Jimmer was benched on Thursday and that bodes well for the future, I have to be cognizant that Jimmer is a thorn and holds Isaiah's value back. Again, I don't agree with any of this. The kid should be playing 32-34 mpg and developing the team as a whole, but that's not keeping the payroll down for the Maloofs when it's time to extend him.

84. Jeremy Lin (9-cat: 114, ADP: 5th Round) -- Linsanity could be a great bet in Houston with just Toney Douglas around to steal minutes, but Lin has shown practically nothing in the preseason (at least until this past Friday). Yes, we have to be careful about how we handle preseason, but it's not a license to just disregard what we see. Right now I see a player that is struggling with the totality of the NBA game, and the knee issue worries me to a certain degree. If it holds him back from being able to develop, as it already has by keeping him out of preseason action, then his learning curve could be a bit steep. Remember, the league now has a book on him (i.e. can't go left), and he needs those reps to settle in with his new team and learn the counters to what the defense is giving him. Doing that on the job and at a slower rate could hurt his field goal percentage, scoring, and assist numbers, and steal away from the late fourth round value he was giving while Melo was back in New York. In a worst case, struggles open the door for him to play limited minutes and any sort of knee troubles could give Kevin McHale a convenient excuse. All of that is reflected in this ranking, though I bumped him up a bit after Friday's respectable outing. Saturday Night Update: The acquisition of Harden seems like it would ding Lin on the surface, and it will, but maybe not as much as everybody thinks. The Rockets are actually a bit less deep now that two rotations players are gone in Kevin Martin and Jeremy Lamb, but more importantly than that the addition of Harden will help Lin on the court. Harden can handle the ball and help make plays which will open the floor up, and Lin will be able to capitalize on the decreased attention he will receive from the defense. I bumped him down over a round for the development, and as you can see I have Lin fairly low compared to where I had him two months ago, but this isn't a panic moment for Lin owners in general.

ROUND 8

85. Byron Mullens (9-cat: 92, ADP: 10th Round) -- He is flying up draft boards and this ADP might not be enough to get him, as Friday night he put up a monster 16 points, 19 rebounds, two steals and a block. He hits threes and shoots a high percentage of his free throws, and with a year of real playing time under his belt it appears he has worked some of the kinks out. There isn't a late-round center in this draft with higher upside, including Jonas Valanciunas.

86. Joe Johnson (9-cat: 107, ADP: 4th Round) -- Another guy ranked way higher elsewhere, we don't have to look too far to see his disastrous 2010-11 campaign in which he ranked No. 91 on a per-game basis. The big difference in his top-40 per-game ranking from last season is the 2.1 3PM/gm he had last season, while the rest of his numbers held more or less consistent. I think he has a shot at nearing that 3-point mark this season, but everything else is on the table for discussion. The Atlanta offense literally revolved around him. That won't be true in Brooklyn, and along with his patella issue from last year, the mileage, and what looks like a lack of explosion -- he falls down my list.

87. Brook Lopez (9-cat: 87, ADP: Late 4th to 5th Round) -- I told folks to move him up draft boards but not that high up draft boards. He is not going to hit his top-25 per-game numbers from 2009-10, and I'm not going to declare his rebounding issues over after a hot preseason. He still has to contend with Crash and Kris Humphries for boards, and the same Achilles' heel for Joe Johnson applies to Lopez, too. There are a lot of options on offense and when you add in his injury risk I just can't be any more bullish.

88. Jonas Valanciunas (9-cat: 116, ADP: 10th Round) -- I've been hammering folks to not disregard this guy because his stiff Lithuanian coach wouldn't play him. His percentages buoy his value even in a low-minute role, and as we've seen he has the skill to take charge of the center position and he won't be looking back.

89. Dion Waiters (9-cat: 98, ADP: 11th Round) -- This is not where you should be drafting Waiters, but this is where I think he will finish. The short version is that I believe he can meet Klay Thompson's season-long rankings from last year. I think he will struggle with free throws and 3-pointers made, but I think he can meet or beat Klay's field goal percentage and possibly double his steals in a 24 mpg projection (Klay's mpg on the year). Thompson ranked No. 127 on the year and that's where I have Waiters' floor, and with plenty of minutes coming his way you can see that the upside goes from there.

90. Andrei Kirilenko (9-cat: 76, ADP: 9th Round) -- Having performed anywhere between a top 50-90 level over his last three NBA seasons, he settles into a projected range right in the middle of those numbers. Add the injury risk and here is where he lands.

91. Eric Gordon (9-cat: 124, ADP: End of 6th Round) -- Gordon has been going way higher than I would take him, by a lot, and that trend will continue now that a vague report out of New Orleans has him having a chance to play on Opening Night. I'm more than skeptical about his ability to pull that off, as his conditioning will be an issue and then from there he's a game of Russian Roulette waiting to happen. But, that news does take away some of the worst-case scenarios for Gordon, and thus why he has moved up about a round in this most recent update.

92. Elton Brand (9-cat: 68, ADP: 9th Round) -- Brand's fantasy friendly game returned top-75 per-game value last season and the injury risk of Dirk and Chris Kaman is offsetting some of Brand's risk. He could decline or get injured himself, but my guess is that Dallas keeps his minutes fairly in check to keep him healthy.

94. Bradley Beal (9-cat: 109, ADP: 10th Round) -- Beal already started beating up on his opponents, showing Joe Johnson a thing or two when the Wizards squared up against the Nets in preseason action. There is no doubt that he can play, and he will play good minutes for at least a month while John Wall (knee) gets up to speed. This gives him a perfect platform to fast-track his NBA success, and I believe if everything clicks he can land a round behind Klay Thompson's numbers as a starter. Chances are he falls well short of that mark, but the mere fact that he could hit that mark makes him better than your garden-variety rookie flier pick.

100. Danny Granger (9-cat: 101, ADP: 5th Round) -- Granger was a top-40 play last season and there are plenty of reasons wearing Pacers unis to think that would fall even if he was healthy. But he's not. Frank Vogel openly discussed a slow start, which would of course give others a chance to take the baton from him. At 80-90% a few days ago, Granger could get healthy and outperform his draft position, but betting on that is bad business.

143. Amare Stoudemire (9-cat: 150, ADP: End of 6th Round) -- If you know people that question this ranking, grab them and invite them into a fantasy league. I had him at 139 before Friday's news that he's seeking a second opinion on his knee, which I hope helped you guys avoid disaster after the unsurprising news hit the wire. I'd drop him further but there is a chance he gets healthy and attempts to regain last year's yawn inducing No. 71 rank on a per-game basis. He's basically worth a flier pick.

Aaron Bruski has covered hoops for Rotoworld since 2008 and has competed in national fantasy sports competitions for nearly two decades. In 2015 he was named FSWA Basketball Writer of the Year. You can also find his work over at ProBasketballTalk, where he received critical acclaim for his in-depth reporting of the Kings' relocation saga. Hit him on Twitter at Aaronbruski.Email :Aaron Bruski