Hot Topics:

Betting the NFL: Look for a few trends to turn around

By Dan Nowak, New Haven Register

Posted:
11/08/2013 08:50:02 PM EST

Green Bay Packers' Aaron Rodgers walks off the field after an NFL football game against the Chicago Bears Monday, Nov. 4, 2013, in Green Bay, Wis. Rodgers was injured in the first half of the game. The Bears won 27-20. (Mike Roemer/Associated Press)

At this stage of the NFL season, teams have certainly emerged as solid plays for a cover (Denver) and against a cover (Jacksonville), but there are different scenarios that bear watching.

While one talented team suddenly has become pedestrian (Green Bay without quarterback Aaron Rodgers), another team (Atlanta) is emerging as a solid play as it gets healthy and key players return from injury.

The Packers are always a good bet to cover against the spread with Rodgers throwing the ball, but Green Bay's lead signal caller suffered a shoulder injury on Monday and will likely be out at least 4-6 weeks. Enter backup quarterback Seneca Wallace, and you have a solid team to bet against, especially the next few weeks as oddsmakers will likely remain high on the Packers based on their reputation and remaining playmakers.

Take this week for example.

Having a quarterback like Wallace under center against Philadelphia, which has a Nick Foles who just threw for seven touchdowns, you would think the Eagles would be favored by 5 or 6 points, even with the game at Green Bay. But Green Bay is a 1-point favorite against an Eagles team that is 4-1 straight up and against the spread on the road this season. The Eagles look like a can't miss play in this spot.

While Green Bay looks like a good team to play against, Atlanta, 2-6 ATS this season including 0-4 as an underdog, is a team that should start turning its fortunes around with key players returning to the fold. Running back Steven Jackson recently returned from a hamstring injury and receiver Roddy White is expected to start this week after missing three games with ankle and hamstring injuries.

Advertisement

The Falcons still have solid tight end Tony Gonzalez and receiver Harry Douglas has played solid filling in for the injured Julio Jones and White. Seattle is a tough opponent, but the Falcons are getting 6 points at home. While the Seahawks have an impressive 8-1 record straight up, they are only 5-4 ATS.

The Seahawks might win, but I think it will be close enough for Atlanta to cover.

Another team to key on is San Francisco, which has been hot going 5-0 ATS and straight up in its last five games. The 49ers' receiver position gets some solid help with Mario Manningham returning from a knee injury this week and Michael Crabtree (Achilles) is expected to make his season debut in Week 11 or 12.

SUNDAY'S GAMESJacksonville at Tennessee (-13): As inconsistent as the Titans have been, they still have too much offense for the Jags (1-7 ATS). Nowak's pick: Titans 27-10.

Buffalo at Pittsburgh (-3): In their last 20 games on the road, the Bills are 6-13-1 ATS, 1-3 this season. Nowak's pick: Steelers 24-17.

Oakland at Giants (-9.5): The Giants defense has been stifling the last two games, and the Giants running game gets a boost with Andre Brown making his season debut. Nowak's pick: Giants 27-14.

St. Louis at Indianapolis (-9.5): The Colts are 5-1 straight up and ATS in their last five games. Nowak's pick: Colts 30-17.

Seattle at Atlanta (+5): See above. Nowak's pick: Falcons 24-21.

Cincinnati at Baltimore (+1): I think Ravens back Ray Rice wakes up in this game and has his best production of the season in a low-scoring affair. Nowak's pick: Ravens 20-17.

Detroit at Chicago (Pick 'em): I would stay away from this one, which could go either way with points scored early and often. Nowak's pick: Bears 33-30 (OT).

Carolina at San Francisco (-6.5): Both teams are hot, but the edge goes to the 49ers at home. Nowak's pick: 49ers 27-17.

Houston at Arizona (-1): If the Texans defense can put the clamps on Arizona receiver Larry Fitzgerald, this will be all Texans. Nowak's pick: Texans 24-13.

Denver at San Diego (+7): This one is going to be fun to watch with two high-powered offenses facing off. Broncos win, Chargers cover. Nowak's pick: Broncos 35-30.

Dallas at New Orleans (-7): Interesting stat at vegasinsider.com — Sean Payton-coached Saints are 13-0 straight up and ATS in their last 13 games at home. Nowak's pick: Saints 31-20.

MONDAY'S GAMEMiami at Tampa Bay (+1): The big question is how focused will Miami be with the Martin-Incognito controversy building each day? I think the Bucs come out fired up on Monday night and get their first win. Nowak's pick: Buccaneers 27-24.