Over the past few weeks, we've taken a look at a number of rookies
that should make a big splash in 2010 and, more recently, we delved
into how offseason camps shaped up for each team and made
some predictions about how that will affect fantasy owners for
the upcoming season. Earlier this week, we took a look at the AFC
side of things in terms of defensive effectiveness.

A quick refresher: the idea with my PSA - at this stage of the
game - is to judge what defenses SHOULD be good and which
ones are deep enough to withstand injuries. Potentially great
teams are built on draft day, but fantasy titles aren't necessarily
won then. The idea of draft day and the end-game to my PSA is
to leave an owner in a good enough position to handle whatever
adversity comes his/her way during the season - and it will come
- so when the playoffs roll around, it is your team that is loaded
with the "cupcake" games. Wouldn't we all agree a game
against the Chiefs during the fantasy playoffs this season sounds
a lot more appealing than one against the Packers or Jets?

Understanding how a defense thinks can open the door for owners
to surmise what their players can do against it in a given week.
Now do this exercise 15 times (most fantasy playoffs stop after
the 15th regular season game) and you have yourself a nice little
start on how a player may perform.

This year, instead of projecting yards per carry (YPC) for the
rushing defense and yards per attempt (YPA) for the passing defense,
I’ve decided to go with a more traditional approach which
places a subjective grade – on a scale from 1-10 with 10
being the best – on the rush or pass defense rather than
one that predicts an average YPA or YPC after judging the schedule.
This way, I believe it is easier to understand the likelihood
that a RB can perform well in fantasy despite a tough run defense
or a QB shredding a hapless secondary. With all that behind us
now, let’s dive back into the defenses.

Coaching: One of the game’s true lifers, DC Wade Phillips
has served the league in some coaching capacity since 1976 and
is one of the few coaches who have truly mastered calling plays
out of the 3-4 defense. In most of his recent time has a defensive
play caller, Phillips’ defenses have been strong against
the run and generated a lot of pressure and/or sacks due to his
willingness to blitz. While the total pass defense numbers have
not been stellar all that often, his defenses usually have been
quite formidable.

Against the run: In the absence of an immovable object at NT,
teams that want to run a 3-4 and lack a Ted Washington-type at
the position need a quick, penetrating linemen who can slip by
the center and disrupt plays in the backfield. No “undersized”
3-4 NT does that any better right now than Jay Ratliff, who had
his coming-out party in 2010. Along with DEs Marcus Spears and
Igor Olshansky, the front three make things much easier for the
combo ILB team of Brandie James and Keith Brooking to help finish
off running plays.

Against the pass: Along with Ratliff terrorizing interior offensive
linemen on running and passing plays, the Cowboys finally got
the level of play they were hoping for out of OLB Anthony Spencer
late last season, taking some of the pass-rushing emphasis off
of fellow OLB DeMarcus Ware in the process. Assuming Spencer maintains
his level of play, the Cowboys should remain one of the best pass-rushing
teams in the league. Much as it was last season, the secondary
may be the difference between this defense being pretty good or
elite. Last year, it was the former. CBs Mike Jenkins and Terence
Newman are a solid set of CBs, but the safety play let them down.
While Gerald Sensabaugh appears to be in the team’s long-term
plans, the Cowboys hope Alan Ball can step up where Ken Hamlin
could not last season.

Analysis: In a lot of respects, Phillips is building a very similar
defense to the one he left in San Diego after the 2006 season
to become the Cowboys’ HC. Opposing offenses may be able
to generate some yards through the air, but this is a good fantasy
defense to use in terms of its ability to generate sacks. In order
to become elite, this unit must force more turnovers, a sore subject
for Dallas in each of the last two seasons. As for the teams opposing
this defense, all but the truly special running teams will struggle
against Dallas, but the passing defense doesn’t appear to
be much better than it was last season when it 20th against the
pass.

Coaching: If there was ever an example on just how important
a DC is to the overall effectiveness of his defense, the Giants
were Exhibit 1A in 2009. Bill Sheridan, who ran the defense last
season, failed miserably in his attempt to replace Steve Spagnuolo
and was replaced by former Bills DC Perry Fewell. Although Fewell’s
Buffalo defenses were primarily Cover 2, HC Tom Coughlin has worked
with his new DC before and has likely asked him to maintain the
Jim Johnson Philadelphia Eagles-style attacking defense that Spagnuolo
ran in New York.

Against the run: The Giants’ defensive line, due in large
part to last season’s free agent activity, is as deep as
there is in the league. Injuries tested the depth of this line
last year but, more importantly, ravaged the defense in the places
it could not afford to lose its starters – MLB and S. The
entire defense fell off after S Kenny Phillips was sidelined to
microfracture surgery in Week 2 and fell off even more when MLB
Antonio Pierce was also lost for the year in Week 9. Because every
player on the line returns (outside of DT Fred Robbins), a bounce-back
season by the run defense should be expected so long as new MLB
Jonathan Goff takes advantage of a full offseason to prepare himself
for his new role. Rookie fourth-rounder Phillip Dillard has the
talent to be a three-down LB, so Goff will not be handed anything.

Against the pass: While anyone can question just how good New
York’s defensive line is at stopping the run, virtually
no one can debate the Giants have as many good pass rushers up
front as anyone in the league. If Fewell operates his defense
in the manner I think he will, he will have the opportunity to
line Justin Tuck, rookie Jason Pierre-Paul, Mattias Kiwanuka and
Osi Umenyiora up in definite passing situations. Just for good
measure, OLB Clint Sintim was drafted as a pass-rusher in the
2009 draft and could probably be used as a nickel rusher as well.
Injuries took their toll at CB last year as well, but if the Giants
can catch a break or two on that front, their depth and quality
at the position is solid. The most interesting change, however,
is at FS where Antrel Rolle was signed to be the playmaker in
center field the team has lacked for some time.

Analysis: The Giants are hoping that a new year – combined
with a change to an established DC – is just what the doctor
order in hopes they can capture the top 10 defense they possessed
in 2007 and 2008. And that is exactly what should be expected
to happen, minus another rash of injuries. Few teams possess the
talent this defense does and Fewell knows what he has to work
with in New York, so expect the Giants to become a top-notch defense
once again. While the loss of Pierce will keep this defense from
being elite, the Giants should be one of the few teams that will
serve as a poor matchup for all but the most accomplished running
and passing games in the NFL.

Coaching: DC Sean McDermott was handed the near-impossible task
of filling the shoes of the late legendary defensive mastermind
Jim Johnson last summer after Johnson’s health forced him
to step aside. Even though the Eagles could have easily used Johnson’s
passing as an excuse for not playing well in 2009, McDermott was
able to coax a 12th-place finish in total defense even though
the Eagles finished a disappointing 19th in scoring defense. Much
like his mentor, McDermott believes in a high percentage of unique
blitz packages in the 4-3 to generate pressure on the QB, with
scoring defense a higher priority than total defense.

Against the run: In his heyday, Johnson was often able to overcome
a lack of size up front by making sure he called a well-planned
run blitz and/or ensuring that he had good size in his LBs. McDermott
seems to have learned well as neither starting DT – Mike
Patterson or Broderick Bunkley – possess the kind of size
most teams ask from their interior defensive linemen nowadays.
Still, the Eagles finished ninth in the league vs. the run last
season even without 6-4, 255-pound MLB Stewart Bradley, who was
dearly missed even though the Philly defense still showed well
against the run. The team acquired WLB Ernie Sims, who should
be a huge upgrade from Akeem Jordan, from Detroit via trade this
offseason after two disappointing seasons as a Lion. The talent
is certainly there for Sims to be a very solid addition to the
run defense, but he must stay healthy long enough to do so and
grasp the new defense as well.

Against the pass: If there was any doubt about the kind of DEs
the Eagles like in their system, it was probably cleared up on
draft day this past April when the team passed on bigger DEs like
Derrick Morgan and Jason Pierre-Paul to select 6-2, 260-pound
Brandon Graham. He’ll join an undersized rotation of Trent
Cole (6-3, 270), Juqua Parker (6-2, 250) and Darryl Tapp (6-1,
270), but it’s hard to argue with the results when Philly
has eclipsed 40 sacks in three of the past four seasons. With
CBs Asante Samuel on one side of the formation, the Eagles have
a player that is one of the best in the league at reading and
reacting to the ball in-flight. On the other side, Ellis Hobbs
is serviceable but certainly upgradable – he really should
be a nickel CB at best. The team likes what it has in SS Quintin
Mikell, but needs rookie Nate Allen to step up right away or this
pass defense will become average very quickly.

Analysis: Much changes in the NFL from year to year, but one
thing that stays pretty consistent year after year is how the
Eagles defense will perform. The 2010 schedule isn’t littered
with powerful running teams, so a repeat of last year’s
ninth-place finish vs. the run is possible but unlikely. With
some question marks in the secondary again this year, don’t
expect a jump in the rankings on pass defense. Thus, what the
Eagles figure to be once again is a high-sack unit that is pretty
much an average matchup vs. the pass and the run.

Coaching: Despite teaching the 4-3 for most of his recent past,
new DC Jim Haslett agreed to join HC Mike Shanahan’s staff
in Washington and immediately convert the defense into a 3-4.
The Redskins actually have a lot of nice pieces for a 3-4 attack
considering they have not drafted for such a defense prior to
this past April. Regardless of where he has been or what defense
he has overseen, Haslett’s defenses are typically heavy-blitzing
units, although the results haven’t suggested that his pressure
packages have been all that successful.

Against the run: While Albert Haynesworth has grabbed most of
the headlines for his refusal to play NT in the new defense, it’s
highly questionable why the Redskins want him there in the first
place. Perhaps he can play a Jay Ratliff-role as a quick penetrator,
but free agent pickup Maake Kemoeatu seems like a longer-term
answer at the position once he recovers from his Achillies’
injury. In the meantime, it would make more sense to put someone
like Howard Green in the middle. Regardless of how the front three
shakes out, the rest of the primary run stoppers are in order
and should help Washington fare well against the run. London Fletcher
and Rocky McIntosh should transition nicely into a 3-4, even if
their tackles don’t reflect their contributions at season’s
end. And even if SS LaRon Landry has been a slight disappointment
overall, he has been solid in the run game.

Against the pass: This is where the Haynesworth saga doesn’t
make a great deal of sense. If Washington managed to put Haynesworth
at DE and lined up OLB Brian Orakpo right behind him, the potential
for huge pressure and sack numbers would be incredible. Regardless,
Orakpo and Andre Carter are better candidates than most to move
from DE (in Carter’s case anyway) to LB. Orakpo, who played
OLB in 2009, should have another banner season sacking the QB.
Much like the rest of division, Washington has a pair of starting
CBs who are good by themselves but really good when coupled with
the kind of pass rush most people are expecting the Redskins to
have in 2010. The weak link, however, figures to be FS Reed Doughty.
He fared poorly in pass coverage last year as a SS and will only
do more of it this year as the Redskins’ centerfielder.

Analysis: Assuming Haynesworth comes to camp in tip-top shape
and is able to play the role of Ratliff in the Redskins’
new 3-4 look, this defense has a great chance of being a high-level
run defense. I don’t feel the same way, however, about the
pass defense. The pass rush will be above average, but neither
Landry nor Doughty scare offenses enough in pass defense to discourage
them from going deep. TEs might find the going easier against
this defense as well.

Coaching: In what appears to be a pivotal year for all things
Bears, Chicago put all of its chips on the table for a first-year
DC, Rod Marinelli. To what degree the former Lions HC will actually
run the defense (as opposed to HC Lovie Smith) or merely serve
a sounding board for Smith is up for some debate, but there is
little doubt that Chicago will remain a “Tampa 2”
defense. The difference between most “Tampa 2” defense
and the one that Smith runs is that Smith has shown he is willing
to blitz more than the typical play caller in this defense does,
so it’s highly likely he’ll ask Marinelli to do the
same.

Against the run: While the addition of DE Julius Peppers doesn’t
dramatically the run defense, it is what his presence means to
everybody else on the defense that makes a difference here. DT
Anthony Adams started to emerge last season and will never need
to face a double team so long as Peppers and DT Tommy Harris are
healthy. Even though the Bears are used to long absences by MLB
Brian Urlacher, there is little doubt he means a great deal –
the run defense fell from fifth in 2008 to 23rd last season without
him.

Against the pass: One of the benefits of adding a premier talent
like Peppers is that offenses must instantly adjust their game
plans to make sure he doesn’t have a field day. Sometimes,
this means keeping a TE in to block as opposed to releasing him
and other times it means a RB will stay in or chip as opposed
to getting a clean run-out into his pass pattern. In addition
to the fear Peppers can put into the QB, it is these small pieces
to the puzzle help defenses get off the field and sometimes cause
turnovers. A healthy Harris is also important to this defense
insomuch that he could force the offense to pick its poison and
single-block either him or Peppers. Assuming everybody up front
can stay healthy, the question becomes just how well the secondary
holds up. CB Zachary Bowman will switch sides (right to left)
with Charles Tillman in an effort to help him continue his big-play
ways from a season ago. The FS position got a nice talent boost
in third-rounder Major Wright, a playmaker who should allow the
Bears to move Chris Harris to SS, allowing the team to improve
both safety spots.

Analysis: As has been the case for years, the effectiveness of
this defense will come down to the health of Harris and Urlacher,
with a huge assist from Peppers, of course. A healthy Harris would
team with Peppers to give Chicago two linemen that deserve a double
team while a 16-game showing by Urlacher would serve as a huge
boon to both the run and pass game because he is such a good tackler
and so fluid in pass coverage. Any injury to the Bears’
starting CBs would be devastating as the depth at the position
is not good, but for now, Chicago could push for a top-10 finish
in total defense if it can stay fairly healthy across the board.

Coaching: DC Gunther Cunningham has long been a blitzing enthusiast,
but it might take a while before the Lions are ready to make the
jump with him, if they ever do under HC Jim Schwartz. While he
was running the Titans’ defense for most of the last decade,
Schwartz often was able to generate pressure with his front four
and, by the looks of the current roster, that should be the approach
with this team.

Against the run: Unlike last season, Detroit has a chance against
the run this time around. With a solid set of three DTs (first-rounder
Ndamukong Suh, Corey Williams and Sammie Hill) and a solid high-motor
veteran DE in Kyle Vanden Bosch who knows just what Schwartz wants,
the Lions may be able to lower their YPC allowed to under 4.3
for the first time since the 2006 season. Cunningham (as well
as his fellow coaches) believes second-year MLB DeAndre Levy is
a budding star, so he only figures to raise his game with some
respectable players in front of him. New SS C.C. Brown was let
go by the Giants for his inability to defend the pass (among other
reasons), but is enough of an upgrade at the position vs. the
run that he should stick in the lineup.

Against the pass: There is no getting around it – the Lions
were awful in pass coverage in 2009. Only up-and-coming FS Louis
Delmas was asked to return from the worst pass defense in the
league a season ago, so three new starters will be expected to
start the long climb back to respectability. However, the secondary
isn’t in much better shape than it was last year as Chris
Houston and Jonathan Wade join third-rounder Amari Spievey as
the team’s top three CBs. While Spievey could emerge as
Detroit’s top cover man before long, he likely look a lot
like Houston early on – a physical CB who will get beat
when he doesn’t get the jam off the line. Wade has been
the team’s most consistent CB this offseason, but he showed
little consistent coverage ability as a St. Louis Ram.

Analysis: Thankfully, the defense has really nowhere to go but
up. Slowly but surely, Detroit is assembling the necessary pieces
to construct a solid defense, with Suh, Levy and Delmas considered
the building blocks. What progress the Lions made vs. the run
will probably be upset once again by a porous pass defense. In
short, Detroit can be considered a decent matchup for opposing
RBs and a plus-plus matchup for just about every team on its schedule
with a decent passing game.

Coaching: One of the few great 3-4 coaches in the league, DC
Dom Capers engineered a remarkable turnaround of the Packers’
defense in 2009 in his first year with the team and their first
year of running the defense. His charges greatly improved in each
of the important defensive categories, such as sacks (27 in 2008
to 37 last season), scoring defense (23.8 to 18.6), rush defense
(26th to first) and pass defense (12th to 5th). Much like Dick
LeBeau, Capers is a zone-blitz aficionado who will win more chess
matches with the offensive coordinator than not.

Against the run: It’s rather amazing how quickly a defense
can go from pathetic in one area one year to dominant the next.
Despite placing Ryan Pickett at NT and B.J. Raji at DE (which
is exactly the opposite of how they are lining up in 2010), the
Packers quickly featured a defensive line that allowed its LBs
to flow easily to the ball, something that both ILBs Nick Barnett
and A.J. Hawk certainly enjoyed. With the depth Green Bay has
up front now (even in light of the Johnny Jolly suspension), don’t
expect much to change vs. the run. Another frequent contributor
to stopping the run – although he is known more his ability
to rush the passer after collecting 10 sacks as a rookie –
is OLB Clay Matthews. The second-year LB, who shows no quit when
pursuing a run play, has reportedly bulked up 15 pounds in the
offseason and is at 261, making him just that much more menacing
so long as he keeps his speed.

Against the pass: While there is much debate that CB Charles
Woodson actually deserved the NFL Defensive Player of the Year
award over the Jets’ Darrelle Revis, it cannot be argued
that Woodson had one of his finest seasons. After playing man
coverage for much of his career, the conversion to a zone-heavy
scheme did not affect Woodson’s play all that much, if at
all. The other side, however, is now a question mark in the wake
of Al Harris’ potential career-ending knee injury. Tramon
Williams did a more-than-adequate job filling in once Harris was
lost, but still has a bit more to prove before the Packers believe
he can be Harris’ long-term replacement. Nick Collins is
locked in to the FS job and one of the best players at his position
that few people outside of football really appreciate. Collins’
job was made easier, last year at least, by the amount of pressure
that 2009 draft choices Matthews and Brad Jones were able to put
on QBs. Jones is said to be fighting Brady Poppinga for the starting
job opposite Matthews, but expect the former to win out and give
Green Bay a pair of bookend OLBs for the foreseeable future.

Analysis: Top-notch defenses often start up front and the Packers
have quality and quantity there. The run defense should remain
among the league’s best, but the passing defense could fall
off if Woodson’s play drops off and/or Williams was merely
a second-half wonder. Harris cannot be expected to return to his
usual form and the depth isn’t all that great at CB, so
Green Bay’s defense may take a few hits from offenses such
Minnesota, Dallas or New England – teams who all have solid
QB play and multiple above-average or elite WRs. Expect a slight
dip from the fifth-place finish the team had vs. the pass in 2009.

Coaching: As long as teams with coaching vacancies at the end
of each season pass on Leslie Frazier, the Vikings will happily
keep their DC and Cover 2 defense around. As with most traditional
Cover 2 defenses, Minnesota relies on its front four to generate
pressure (as opposed to blitzing) in the passing game and occupy
blockers in the running game while everyone else flies to the
ball.

Against the run: It’s a pretty good bet for as long as
DTs Kevin and Pat Williams anchor the middle of the Vikings’
4-3 defense, opposing running games will suffer. Minnesota has
finished first or second in the league vs. the run in each of
the last four seasons. Even though the healthy return of MLB E.J.
Henderson is still in some question, fill-in Jasper Brinkley was
strong against the run, so don’t expect a dip in effectiveness
in that respect. CB Antoine Winfield is annually one of the league’s
best DBs in terms of run support, which also contributes greatly
to Minnesota’s run-stopping prowess.

Against the pass: As long as DE Jared Allen remains healthy and
the “Williams Wall” is doing its part to stop the
run, Minnesota will be more than content in rushing four linemen
most of the time and letting its Cover 2 defense make opponents
sweat out drives. While the run defense did not suffer much in
Henderson’s absence, the pass defense was exposed when Brinkley
joined the lineup. Winfield is one of the league’s better
CBs, but the spot opposite him figures to be a concern all year
long. Cedric Griffin blew out his ACL last season and while rookie
Chris Cook has the size and talent, it’s an awful lot to
ask of him to beat out a player like Lito Sheppard, even if the
veteran has seen his better days.

Analysis: The biggest question marks with this defense are the
complete returns of Henderson and Griffin. Henderson is a question
mark for Week 1, meaning that RBs and TEs may have more success
than normal in the passing game if he is unable to make it on
the field early in the season. Cook is immensely talented, but
was considered a combo DB as opposed to a true CB. Those players
typically work well in Cover 2 defenses, but he’ll need
to be strong against the run as well if he hopes to firmly secure
a starting job over Sheppard. Regardless, the Vikings should once
again be a poor matchup for opposing RBs and around the league
average in stopping the pass.

Coaching: Even though he has two years under his belt as a NFL
DC, Brian VanGorder isn’t exactly a known quantity when
it comes to what kind of play-caller he is. Much of that can be
blamed on Atlanta typically having a weak secondary that counts
on DE John Abraham to provide the majority of the pressure up
front. Although it is merely speculation, expect VanGorder to
be the most aggressive he has been up to this point with blitz
packages as the Falcons now have a pair of veteran CBs that should
be able to hold up in coverage.

Against the run: Somehow, Atlanta made the jump from 25th to
10th vs. the run despite being grossly undersized at DT and losing
2009 first-round pick Peria Jerry early in the season.
(As of May, Jerry was still limping noticeably on his surgically
repaired left knee. If he can’t go for some reason by the
start of the season, Thomas Johnson would step into the lineup.)
While a great deal of the Falcons’ “success”
could be attributed to the opponent’s willingness to attack
the defense through the air, MLB Curtis Lofton emerged as a force
in the middle of the Atlanta defense. Although it isn’t
uncommon for a SS to have a high number of tackles, it’s
a bad sign when he is the team’s second-leading tackler.
Certainly, Erik Coleman enjoyed 2009 from a production standpoint,
but very few teams want their SS averaging one tackle/game less
than their MLB over the course of an entire season. In short,
it speaks to how little the rest of the defense is contributing
to stopping the run.

Against the pass: Improving the NFL’s 28th-ranked passing
defense from a season ago was a top priority this time around
and the Falcons may have done exactly that. The coup may have
been the addition of CB Dunta Robinson, who should give Atlanta
its best cover man since DeAngelo Hall left town. The team is
going so far as to suggest it may ask him to shadow opponents’
top WR each week (as opposed to staying on one side of the formation).
He’ll be joined in the lineup by solid but unspectacular
veteran Brian Williams. The duo will receive help deep from FS
Thomas DeCoud, who held up well in 2009 as a first-year starter
and split the team’s defensive MVP award with Lofton. The
team also added first-round selection Sean Weatherspoon, who will
eventually push Mike Peterson out of job at WLB. With his speed,
range and relentlessness, Weatherspoon should quickly join Lofton
as a key run-stopping force and also serve as a valuable cog in
coverage. As for the pass rush, the Falcons desperately hope someone
like second-year DE Lawrence Sidbury emerges opposite Abraham.
Generally speaking, when Abraham isn’t creating pressure
himself, no one else is either.

Analysis: One sign that the Falcons’ run defense wasn’t
as good as their final numbers suggested were the high tackle
numbers of DeCoud and Coleman, indicating that a few too many
runners broke through the first two lines of defense. With the
secondary coming along nicely, expect Atlanta’s final numbers
to flip in 2010, meaning that the pass defense will look good
statistically while the run defense takes a hit. Lofton and Weatherspoon
are a good start for Atlanta in its quest to field a consistent
run-stopping defense, but big and physical running teams could
very well manhandle the Falcons. Expect a better-than-average
performance vs. the pass and below-average finish vs. the run
for this defense.

Coaching: As expected, DC Ron Meeks carried over his trend of
sporting statistically-superior pass and porous run defenses from
Indianapolis to Carolina. In Meeks’ Cover 2 system, he counts
on the pressure coming from the front four and is happy to have
his LBs and DBs sit back in zone in hopes that the offense will
self-destruct before his defense does.

Against the run: This could quite possibly be one of the worst
run defenses the league has seen in some time. Louis Leonard and
Tank Tyler are projected to be the starting DTs, with both players
being journeymen, to put it nicely. While Jon Beason is a very
solid MLB, he will be asked to move to WLB in the wake of Thomas
Davis’ second ACL tear to his right knee in less than a
year. Dan Connor will most likely be asked to fill in at Beason’s
old spot and should be more than serviceable, but it’s a
far from ideal situation with the DT situation as bad as it is.

Against the pass: Of all the years the team could ill-afford
to lose a player like DE Julius Peppers, it had to be this year.
Peppers’ 10.5 sacks in 2009 more than doubled the next closest
player (DE Tyler Brayton; 5) and now with their double-team magnet
gone, the Panthers will need to get pressure from Brayton and
Everette Brown because Meeks favors a more conservative “Tampa
2” defense that doesn’t blitz a whole lot. The potential
lack of QB pressure would be unfortunate for CBs Richard Marshall
and Chris Gamble, a strong pair of corners who may get exposed
in coverage more often this season as opposing QBs figure to have
a lot of time in the pocket.

Analysis: Enough has been said about the team’s potential
to field a competitive run defense, but expect Carolina to take
a step back vs. the pass as well with the loss of Davis. In short,
expect the Panthers to be among the friendliest defenses when
it comes to handing out fantasy points in 2010.

Coaching: Outside of one year when he was caught on the wrong
end of a power struggle with Jacksonville HC Jack Del Rio, DC
Gregg Williams is about as good as it gets when it comes to creating
havoc out of the 4-3 defense. Williams makes no bones about bringing
a lot of pressure and forcing turnovers being the most important
elements of his defensive teams.

Against the run: Through the first five games of the 2009 season,
the Saints’ defense appeared to have it all, holding four
of their opponents under 89 yards rushing and forcing a total
of 15 turnovers. Then, just about the time DT Sedrick Ellis was
lost for a four-game stretch (and wasn’t right the rest
of the season), the run defense plummeted, surrendering at least
119 yards rushing in all but two of the final 11 games. While
it is presumptuous and a bit foolish to lay all the post-September
run-defense failures solely at his feet, there is little doubt
Ellis is a vital cog to stuffing the run. What is also interesting
is how the production of MLB Jonathan Vilma went up following
the Ellis injury in Week 7. Starting with that game Vilma averaged
7.6 tackles/game over the final 11 contests after not eclipsing
that average once in the first five games. Needless to say, New
Orleans needs this pair to stay healthy this year if it has any
chance of being the run defense it showed it could be over the
first five games in 2009.

Against the pass: Typically, a defense that finished 26th vs.
the pass in any season does not deserve praise for being a stingy
pass defense. The problem is Williams cared much less about yards
allowed last season than points allowed and was willing to give
up a few yards in exchange for a few big plays. And no team turned
more big plays on defense than New Orleans, which converted 39
turnovers into eight defensive touchdowns – a mark that
doubled the next closest teams in that category. Much of that
success can be attributed to New Orleans’ offense (which
put opponents into catch-up mode) and Williams’ schemes,
but no player pounced on a bad throw downfield quite like FS Darren
Sharper did last season. With DE Will Smith coming off a 13-sack
season, it’s hard to believe he could be in line for an
even better in 2010, but ex-Bear DE Alex Brown should be an upgrade
in the pass rush over Charles Grant, meaning Smith should push
for the league lead in sacks. Postseason hero Tracy Porter and
Jabari Greer are more than capable of holding up in coverage as
Williams continues to dial up the pressure.

Analysis: It goes without saying that the Saints experienced
a great deal of success last year because of the turnovers they
caused. A similar showing in 2010 (25th in total defense) will
likely have them struggling to make the playoffs because turnovers
– for the most part – are hard for defenses to count
on forcing year after year. The pass defense should improve slightly
numbers-wise in 2010 because the secondary, for the first time
in years, is deep and talented. But as long as Williams is running
the defense, the emphasis will be on turnovers and stopping the
run. Given the weakness at OLB (Scott Shanle, JoLonn Dunbar) and
the lack of depth behind Ellis and Vilma, expect the Saints to
struggle stopping the run if/when injuries strike.

Coaching: The fit of former DC Jim Bates was a bad one from the
start last year for Tampa Bay considering that HC Raheem Morris
has spent the majority of his time coaching the “Tampa 2”
(which emphasizes speed) and not Bates’ system (which calls
for big, powerful linemen who clog up the running lanes). Don’t
expect a great deal of deviation from the traditional “Tampa
2” principles under Morris, that is, creating pressure with
the front four and trying to force an offensive mistake before
the defense makes one by playing two-deep coverage.

Against the run: The Bucs possess a load of potential at DT (Gerald
McCoy, Brian Price, Roy Miller), but the question is how quickly
it can go from potential to realized talent when the trio possesses
15 total games of NFL experience – all Miller’s. The
problem with all this potential is that no one is a great fit
to play the Anthony McFarland role on this defense, which is to
say no one is around who is big enough to hold the point while
McCoy plays the Warren Sapp role for the Bucs, quickly penetrating
into the backfield from his three-technique position. Behind the
front four is the highly underrated MLB Barrett Ruud, who finished
tied for second in the league in tackles last season with 142.
He is easily the most important player to this defense and will
be the player who benefits the most if the DTs mature quickly.
Neither Sean Jones (injuries) nor Sabby Piscitelli (lack of consistency
in his first three years as a Buc) inspires a great deal of confidence
at SS in helping Ruud in the run game.

Against the pass: Stylez G White (6.5 sacks) is the team’s
leading sacker from a season ago, so given the lack of help Tampa
Bay has opposite him (Kyle Moore) and the defensive philosophy,
opposing QBs may have some big games against this defense unless
McCoy or Price emerge quickly as a double-team threat. The OLBs
(Quincy Black, Geno Hayes) will need to blitz more often than
they should have to in this defense to make up for the front four
and only CB Aqib Talib should be counted on to play at an high
level anymore when the team needs to play man coverage. Ronde
Barber is still easily a starter on this team, but is much more
beatable than he was in his heyday and the depth behind the two
starters is not good. FS Tanard Jackson is probably better than
he showed last year (due to the lack of talent in front of him)
and would probably shine with a better supporting cast, but he
too may not realize his potential in 2010.

Analysis: The Bucs are still a long ways away from fielding the
kind of defense to compete consistently in this division, although
McCoy, Ruud and Talib are good building blocks. The lack of a
pass rush and inability to stop the run again this year will likely
lead to the same kind of ranking the team had last season (last
vs. the run). Because of the inability to stop the run, opponents
may not feel the need to pass as much. Either way, this defense
is not good enough in either stopping the run or the pass to be
considered anything else than a plus matchup for fantasy players
in either category.

Coaching: DC Bill Davis oversaw a defense that was the league’s
best at stopping the run about midway through the season before
caving in down the stretch. The pass defense, which should have
been a strength with all the talent it possessed last year, ranked
a disappointing 23rd in the league. Despite HC Ken Whisenhunt’s
background with the zone-blitzing Steelers, he and Davis want
a swarming, blitzing 3-4 defense more in the mold of a Rex Ryan
defense.

Against the run: If rookie first-round NT Dan Williams lives
up to his draft spot, it is almost scary how good the Cardinals’
front three can be. Darnell Dockett (6-4, 285) and Calais Campbell
(6-7, 290) are near-ideal size fits as five-techniques (3-4 DEs)
and, with their incredible athletic ability, may allow the Cardinals
to not regret letting Karlos Dansby go. Speaking of Dansby, Arizona
will try to replace him with ILB Paris Lenon initially on running
downs and 2010 second-rounder Daryl Washington on passing downs,
although it is hard to imagine the rookie not beating out Lenon
sooner than later. The winner of that battle will likely play
next to ILB Gerald Hayes, who needs to stay healthy if the Cards
want to improve their 17th-place ranking vs. the run from last
season. Behind them is one of the best all-around strong safeties
in the game, Adrian Wilson.

Against the pass: As much as Arizona has to like its front three
vs. the run, the difference between Dockett-Campbell and the majority
of starting 3-4 DEs in the league is that both players can still
generate sacks and pressures. The duo will need to repeat their
seven-sack performances from last year as the OLB combo of Clark
Haggans and Joey Porter are both 33 and much less feared than
they were in their days with the Steelers. The last time we saw
the Cardinals’ secondary, it was injured and getting burned
repeatedly by the Packers. Greg Toler will most likely step in
for the departed Bryant McFadden, but whether it is him or Michael
Adams opposite Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, it’s a safe
bet that opponents will be targeting whatever receiver is not
drawing DRC. Although Antrel Rolle was a playmaker at the back
end of the Cardinals’ defense, the team upgraded itself
at FS when it let him go and traded for Kerry Rhodes, who is a
better all-around player than Rolle. Wilson is one of the few
players at SS in the league who also is a huge factor vs. the
pass, be it as a blitzer or cover man. He is one player the team
cannot afford to lose for any length of time.

Analysis: With the retirement of Kurt Warner at QB, the Cardinals
will need their defense to step up and stop more scoring opportunities
than they did in 2009 when they finished in the middle of the
pack. Williams’ effectiveness will play a large role in
that happening. Still, the back eight (minus Wilson and DRC) is
average at best and, even the Cards stop the run better than they
did last year (17th), the pass defense will likely fail them as
often as it helps them. For now, consider the Arizona defense
pretty stout vs. the run and slightly below-average vs. the pass.

(UPDATE 7/21: Hayes underwent back surgery sometime in May or
June is out until at least the start of training camp. If he misses
any regular season games, Arizona’s run defense would suffer
mightily. For now, my projection will assume a healthy Hayes.)

Coaching: DC Ken Flajole is technically the one in charge of
the defense, but this is HC Steve Spagnuolo’s baby. While
his background as a student of Jim Johnson’s Philadelphia-style
defense is well-chronicled, Spags simply doesn’t have the
horses yet in St. Louis to run the defense that he led to a Super
Bowl title as the DC of the Giants. Ideally, he wants to be one
of the more aggressive blitzing play-callers in the league, but
for now, he’ll need his defense to concentrate keeping the
opposing offense in front of them with his offense also trying
to find itself.

Against the run: Despite years of trying to find the right fit
at DT through the draft, the Rams have been forced to turn to
a former student of Spagnuolo, 33-year-old Fred Robbins to start
alongside Clifton Ryan. Although Robbins made his name as a disruptive
force in the passing game, microfracture surgery in 2008 may have
turned him into a run defender only, if even that. Ryan is one
of the few players the Rams can consider a solid contributor to
this defense and probably the best run-stuffer St. Louis has.
MLB James Laurinaitis had one of the quietest standout rookie
seasons last season, collecting 120 tackles. As the current Rams
go, he’s already the most important player on this defense.
SS is also a question mark with James Butler fighting ex-Bear
Kevin Payne for the starting job. Perhaps on a team with a dominant
front seven, this pair could skate by unnoticed, but in St. Louis,
it is just further reason why the Rams will struggle to improve
their 27th-place finish vs. the run.

Against the pass: Robbins will be asked to play the “three-technique”
in this defense, which would have been a good thing prior to his
surgery. Whether he can provide anything to the pass rush now
is certainly up in the air. DE Chris Long faces a make-or-break
season in his career. Entering his third season, St. Louis needs
him to emerge as a player who deserves a double team so Spags
can has some options when it comes to rushing the passer that
don’t involve sending 5-6 defenders on every passing down.
As sad as it is, the most talented part of the Rams’ defense
is probably in the secondary. Ronald Bartell and Justin King (if
Bradley Fletcher cannot return in time from his ACL surgery) are
fine, but the team would love to see third-rounder Jerome Murphy
turn into something special. At FS, the Rams welcome back O.J.
Atogwe, who could be considered the best player the Rams have
in the secondary.

Analysis: The Rams didn’t defend the run or pass particularly
well in 2009 and there is little reason to expect Spagnuolo or
Flajole to do much better this season. Laurinaitis looks to be
a solid building block and Atogwe and Ryan are more than capable,
but the rest of the defense is highly questionable. Expect Spagnuolo
to get some solid performances out of this group because he is
a good coach, but matchups vs. the Rams in 2010 figure to be quite
good for all positions in fantasy.

Coaching: While there is some debate as to whether it is a joint
effort with HC Mike Singletary, DC Greg Manusky runs the Niners’
defense and has overseen the significant improvement his unit
has made over his three seasons in the position. Manusky’s
3-4 defense isn’t the most aggressive blitzing scheme, but
his charges still produced 44 sacks last season – tied for
the third-best total in the NFL in 2009.

Against the run: Assuming the play of NT Aubrayo Franklin and
DE Justin Smith carries over from last season to this one, San
Francisco is in great shape to repeat its top-10 finish vs. the
run again this season. Franklin enjoyed the best year of his NFL
career at age 30 in 2009 while Smith keeps producing incredible
numbers at a position not conducive to doing just that. The one
question mark up front is the other DE, Isaac Sopoaga. As good
as the protection is up front, it doesn’t get much better
at MLB than Patrick Willis, who led the league in tackles last
season. He’s gotten to the point where it is a disappointment
if he doesn’t dominate a game. At SS, Michael Lewis may
start the season in the lineup, but it probably is only a matter
of time before rookie Taylor Mays pushes him to the sideline.
Perhaps in part to hide the same deficiencies against the pass
he showed at USC and in pre-draft workouts, the youngster will
probably be limited to run-down packages as a rookie – which
suits his strengths to a tee.

Against the pass: Despite their sack numbers from a season ago,
the Niners didn’t see a single defender register more than
Manny Lawson’s 6.5 sacks – and he’s supposedly
fighting for a starting spot this season. As a result, they would
enjoy nothing more than to see Lawson, Ahmad Brooks or Parys Haralson
become a double-digit sacker. On the back end of the defense,
it was Shawntae Spencer – and not Nate Clements –
who was the team’s most trusted CB last season. While the
highly-compensated Clements dealt with a benching and a broken
scapula in 2009, some people around the organization felt Spencer
played at a “championship level”. Although Clements
has long been a bit overrated in terms of his overall effectiveness,
he is a solid corner and, if his mind is right, the team’s
best cover man.

Analysis: If Sopoaga is even a bit better than average up front
and Franklin and Smith maintain their level of play, the run defense
could challenge the likes of Pittsburgh, Baltimore and Minnesota
as the league’s best in that regard. If there is a glaring
weakness with this defense right now, it is the lack of a pass
rusher that alters offensive gameplans. The back four is far from
elite, but stands to improve its 21st-place finish vs. the pass
if it can get the same kind of pressure on the QB it did in 2009.
As a result, consider the Niners a difficult matchup for most
RBs in fantasy this year and an average matchup against most passing
game members.

Coaching: Since HC Pete Carroll’s background is as a defensive
coach, it appears he will be calling the defensive signals instead
of DC Gus Bradley, much in the same way former HC Jim Mora, Jr.
did. Carroll favors a bend-but-don’t-break approach which
isn’t exactly Cover 2 but maintains many of the same principles.

Against the run: Up front, the onus for stopping the run will
likely come down to DT Colin Cole and DE Red Bryant, who will
be making the move from DT. In theory, having three starting linemen
who each have substantial DT experience should mean the Seahawks
will play the run well, but it hard to say any of the current
starters are difference makers at this point. At MLB, Lofa Tatupu
will have the opportunity to play for his college coach in the
same scheme that made him a top college prospect at USC. One of
the better players at his position in the league, Tatupu should
only need to be fully recovered from the pectoral injury that
ended his season in 2009 to be a dominant force once again. Expect
2009 first-rounder Aaron Curry to have a bit more impact under
Carroll. His range and ball skills fit well into Carroll’s
scheme so long as he is quick to pick up the defense. With the
addition of first-round FS Earl Thomas, last year’s FS Jordan
Babineaux and his 104 tackles will move to SS in more of a run-stopping
role, which should only improve Seattle’s chances of stopping
the run.

Against the pass: As mentioned earlier, the front four doesn’t
possess a wealth of skill or playmakers, so Carroll may be forced
to blitz a bit more than he would like to in order to generate
pressure. The one wildcard, though, is DT Brandon Mebane. Carroll
believes he is the best three-technique on the team and will produce
much more than the 1.5 sacks he managed a season ago in the same
position. The addition of Thomas in the draft this April was a
coup for the Seahawks as many believe he could be the next Ed
Reed. Carroll believes he could play corner if needed (and he
may do so against multi-WR sets), but for now he’ll mostly
be asked to show the kind of range that has so many people comparing
him to the Ravens’ Pro Bowler. CB Marcus Trufant will likely
get a pass on 2009 after dealing with back problems for much of
the season. When he’s right, he’s among the top 15
or so CBs in the game. Assuming Trufant is right now, the majority
of offenses will then turn to attacking undersized Josh Wilson.

Analysis: Much has been made of Carroll’s lack of NFL success,
but it is telling that he finished with a winning record and actually
oversaw a defense all the way back in 1995 that led the league
in total defense. With that said, it’s hard to imagine that
Seattle will have much success stopping the run with such an ordinary
front four. And while the back seven has its fair share of talent,
opponents will likely find a way to attack Wilson. Remembering
that Seattle is annually one of the teams that dominates at home
and struggles on the road, the Seahawks may be a plus matchup
for all fantasy players when they hit the road and a neutral matchup
when they play at home.

Suggestions, comments, musings about the article or fantasy football
in general? E-mail me.