THIS WEEK:

Factions: The author of the above quotation, James Madison, is considered to be the principal author of the Constitution; along with Alexander Hamilton and John Jay, an author of the Federalist Papers urging the several states the adoption of the Constitution to replace the Articles of Confederation; and an important contributor to George Washington’s Farewell Address to the nation in 1796. Washington’s Farewell address was written and circulated throughout the nation, to be read to those who could not read. It came eight years after the Constitution was ratified in 1788, with the new stronger Federal government beginning on March 4, 1789.

In 1789 the French revolution began, resulting a violent period with many factions, subsequently the “Reign of Terror” and a dictatorship. Many Americans began questioning whether self-government along the principles of Enlightenment ideals could survive. Washington’s Farewell Address emphasizes the importance of union and the Constitution to protect liberty for all.

It warned against powerful factions as well as government too weak to protect its citizens.

“…that for the efficient management of your common interests, in a country so extensive as ours, a government of as much vigor as is consistent with the perfect security of liberty is indispensable. Liberty itself will find in such a government, with powers properly distributed and adjusted, its surest guardian. It is, indeed, little else than a name, where the government is too feeble to withstand the enterprises of faction, to confine each member of the society within the limits prescribed by the laws, and to maintain all in the secure and tranquil enjoyment of the rights of person and property.

“I have already intimated to you the danger of parties in the State, with particular reference to the founding of them on geographical discriminations. Let me now take a more comprehensive view, and warn you in the most solemn manner against the baneful effects of the spirit of party generally.

“This spirit, unfortunately, is inseparable from our nature, having its root in the strongest passions of the human mind. It exists under different shapes in all governments, more or less stifled, controlled, or repressed; but, in those of the popular form, it is seen in its greatest rankness, and is truly their worst enemy.”

Today, as in the past, many entities, factions, spirit of party, have made claims that science favors their programs and policies. This was common in the 1920s with Eugenics, or before that with Karl Mark and his followers claiming his economic system was “scientific socialism.” In the US some government entities, scientific organizations and political groups are claiming the Trump administration is anti-science. As a headline in the New York Times stated: “Trump Administration Hardens Its Attack on Climate Science.”

Writing for the Global Warming Policy Forum, Andrew Montford, author of “The Hockey stick Illusion” demolishes claims of Trump’s attack on science. James Reilly, Director of the US Geological Survey, ordered that computer runs of climate models stop with the year 2040. Montford cites the work by John Christy discussed in last week’s TWTW showing that longer runs are of little value. The models fail to describe what has been occurring in the atmosphere over the past 40 years.

Please note, that Christy mentioned that the dataset his organization compiled is 40 years old and it does not necessarily include all, natural variability. TWTW suggested that it does not include a general cooling such as the Little Ice Age, or major ice ages. Further, although Christy’s statistical methods eliminated volcanic activity and El Niño activity, they did not eliminate changes in solar activity. TWTW asserts that climate models are misleading today, and there is no logical reason to assume longer runs will not be misleading.

Montford also brings up the paper by Judith Curry “Climate Models for the Layman” published in 2017 by the Global Warming Policy Foundation. In addition to the quotation by Montford, Curry summarizes the global climate models (GCMs) by stating:

“GCMs are important tools for understanding the climate system. However, there are

broad concerns about their reliability:

· “GCM predictions of the impact of increasing carbon dioxide on climate cannot be rigorously evaluated on timescales of the order of a century.

· “There has been insufficient exploration of GCM uncertainties.

· “There are an extremely large number of unconstrained choices in terms of selecting model parameters and parameterisations.

· “There has been a lack of formal model verification and validation, which is the norm for engineering and regulatory science.

· “GCMs are evaluated against the same observations used for model tuning.

· “There are concerns about a fundamental lack of predictability in a complex nonlinear system.

The IPCC First Assessment Report (AR) was published in 1990. In over 25 years they have not bothered to verify and validate their models. It is not a scientific organization, but a political faction attempting to extract money from the American public and the EU. [Also, verification and validation are a major problem with US EPA models.]

It may be unfortunate that it takes a real estate promoter with an abrasive public personality to point out that what passes for science from the IPCC is really an illusion, “smoke and mirrors.” But Trump seems to be the first leader of a major nation who willingly rejected the IPCC’s false claim of scientific credibility. See links under Challenging the Orthodoxy, Change in US Administrations and http://avalon.law.yale.edu/18th_century/washing.asp

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Environmentalism Indicted. Tim Ball, who studied under climate change pioneer H.H. Lamb, produced a severe indictment against environmentalism, claiming the purpose has been to achieve world government. Certainly, world-wide regulations seem to be the goal of the leaders of many environmental organizations. However, individuals in the organizations may be misinformed.

For example, many individuals were disturbed by the broad use of the persistent chemical DDT. But it is doubtful that many of these individuals realized that their anti-DDT stance would lead to the preventable deaths of millions of people in tropical countries. The failure to inform the public is a failure of both government and the factions, special interest groups, that prompted the policy of banning DDT. [One of the worries was that mosquitos (and other insects) might develop an immunity against DDT, much as some bacteria have against some antibiotics. But the most cost-effective malaria control was periodic indoor spraying: thus, the total ban was nonsense.]

One can argue that these factions do not have the duty to inform the public of adverse human health effects the policies they advocate may have. The same can be said for the consequences of banning fossil fuels, when few reliable alternatives are available, except under special circumstances such as free flowing rivers. The problem is difficult with no ready solution. See links under Challenging the Orthodoxy.

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The Greenhouse Effect: The discussion of the Greenhouse Effect – Atmospheric Layers in last week’s TWTW has several omissions that are important for general understanding. The discussion of the troposphere and the drop in temperatures as elevation increased (lapse rate) assumed a cloudless sky. When clouds are included, many generalizations fail. This is one reason why there is no generalized theory of the greenhouse effect.

Further, clouds interfere with the cooling of the earth. And, as previously mentioned by Roy Spencer, clouds interfere with the ability to measure the infrared radiation, which cools the earth. The interference with measurement ability is one reason why microwave measurements are preferred to infrared measurements for estimating temperature trends. Another reason is that the dataset for microwave measurements is over 40 years long, while the one for infrared measurements is 16 years long.

Since water freezes out by the tropopause, and the density of the air in the stratosphere (fewer molecules per unit volume) is far less than in the troposphere, there is much less convection in the stratosphere than in the troposphere. Last week’s TWTW gave the impression there was little or none, which is not correct.

Greenhouse gases absorb and re-emit infrared radiation in specific wavelengths (absorption bands). [Note: The band is (say) 12 to 18 microns; the bandwidth is 6 microns.] For example, carbon dioxide has three main bandwidths of infrared absorption – 1.8 to 2 microns; 4 to 5 microns; and 12 to 18 microns, this last being the one that can block IR emanating from the surface. If 99% + of the infrared energy for a particular band width is interfered with by existing greenhouse gases, then the band is said to be “saturated,” and the energy is released at the top of the atmosphere, where there are no molecules of greenhouse gas to interfere with it.

Using computer simulations from HITRAN (high-resolution transmission molecular absorption database), developed at the Atomic and Molecular Physics Division, Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics under the direction of Dr. Iouli E. Gordon, the next TWTW (dated June 15) will begin to discuss how existing carbon dioxide and existing water vapor in the atmosphere reduce the ability of additional carbon dioxide to interfere with outgoing infrared radiation because the absorption bands are already saturated. As one scientist stated: “the glass is already on this greenhouse – another layer has little to do.”

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Antarctic Warming: Previously, TWTW discussed a report by the World Meteorological Organization, a parent organization of the IPCC, which had a map showing a surface warming of the Antarctic where there are no thermometers and where satellite data shows a cooling. Now, NASA’s Goddard Institute on Space Studies (NASA-GISS) has done the same. The “visualization of NASA’s global temperature record” shows warming where there are no thermometers. The report stated:

“A new assessment of NASA’s record of global temperatures revealed that the agency’s estimate of Earth’s long-term temperature rise in recent decades is accurate to within less than a tenth of a degree Fahrenheit, providing confidence that past and future research is correctly capturing rising surface temperatures.

There was no explanation for the source of NASA-GISS numbers. As Roy Spencer has stated, it could not be infrared radiation measurements, because the instruments cannot measure through clouds and ice, the general conditions in Antarctica. See links under Measurement Issues – Surface and Changing Cryosphere – Land / Sea Ice.

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A Stubborn Man: In the 1970s it became fashionable in Washington to believe that the US would soon run out of oil and natural gas. After all, the government had state-of-the-art mathematical models “proving” the US would. Some knowledgeable people realized there were enormous resources in the Gulf of Mexico and probably in the extensive flat shale formations created by the vast inland sea that, at various times, stretched from the Gulf to the Beaufort Sea, east of the Rockies, called source rock. The problem was no one know how to extract the oil and gas.

Although many questioned his sanity, one stubborn man, George Mitchell kept trying until he hit on a combination that would keep the fractured shale open for natural gas to come out. Fracturing had been used for years, but keeping fracture propped open was the key. As they say, the rest is history.

There is no generally acceptable way to predict, or assign probabilities, to such technology breakthroughs. Perhaps one day someone will develop a battery able to store electricity on a commercial scale at a reasonable cost. But until that technology is proven, there is no reason to expect that wind and solar will be reliable sources of affordable electricity. For a review of George Mitchell’s work see a link under Oil and Natural Gas – the Future or the Past?

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No TWTW Next Week: Due to a trip to Finland, there will be no TWTW next week. TWTW will resume on June 15.

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SEPP’S APRIL FOOLS AWARD

THE JACKSON

SEPP is conducting its annual vote for the recipient of the coveted trophy, The Jackson, a lump of coal. Readers are asked to nominate and vote for who they think is most deserving, following these criteria:

· The nominee has advanced, or proposes to advance, significant expansion of governmental power, regulation, or control over the public or significant sections of the general economy.

· The nominee does so by declaring such measures are necessary to protect public health, welfare, or the environment.

· The nominee declares that physical science supports such measures.

· The physical science supporting the measures is flimsy at best, and possibly non-existent.

The seven past recipients, Lisa Jackson, Barrack Obama, John Kerry, Ernest Moniz, John Holdren, Gena McCarthy and Jerry Brown are not eligible. Generally, the committee that makes the selection prefers a candidate with a national or international presence. The voting will close on June 30. Please send your nominee and a brief reason why the person is qualified for the honor to Ken@SEPP.org. Thank you.

Number of the Week: 40 zettabytes. Energy expert Donn Dears writes that “the world creates some 40 zettabytes of useable data each year, and CISCO predicts this rate will double in three years. (Cisco’s Global Cloud Index: Forecast and Methodology, 2016–2021).”

Does it have to get to yottabytes before politicians recognize that mandating wind and solar will cause a problem? There is no commercially available, affordable storage other than pumped storage. However efforts demonstrate that pumped storage does not work well with unreliable wind and solar because the downtimes for wind and solar may be weeks or months. See link under Energy Issues – Non-US.

“By 1979, we knew nearly everything we understand today about climate change ― including how to stop it, according to the book, Losing Earth.”

“Robert Watson, a former chairman of the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, has argued that a 3-degree warming is the realistic minimum. Four degrees: Europe in permanent drought; vast areas of China, India, and Bangladesh claimed by desert; Polynesia swallowed by the sea; the Colorado River thinned to a trickle. The prospect of a 5-degree warming prompts some of the world’s pre-eminent climate scientists, not an especially excitable type, to warn of the fall of human civilization.”

[SEPP Comment: The assumptions made at the 1979 conference for the Charney Report are wrong, as shown by John Christy’s work in last week’s TWTW.]

“The pair say their work reveals the power firms can have in curtailing government action on climate change, in the face of ‘overwhelming evidence’ that its social benefits outweigh the costs, which range from reduced farming yields to lower GDP.” [Boldface added]

[SEPP Comment: Do the editors of Nature Climate Change understand that photosynthesis is natural and causing nature to flourish with more carbon dioxide? The authors of this paper are apparently ignorant of photosynthesis.]

From abstract: “But empirical evidence on resource use and carbon emissions does not support green growth theory. Examining relevant studies on historical trends and model-based projections, we find that: (1) there is no empirical evidence that absolute decoupling from resource use can be achieved on a global scale against a background of continued economic growth, and (2) absolute decoupling from carbon emissions is highly unlikely to be achieved at a rate rapid enough to prevent global warming over 1.5°C or 2°C, even under optimistic policy conditions. We conclude that green growth is likely to be a misguided objective, and that policymakers need to look toward alternative strategies.” [Boldface added.]

“U.S. Geological Survey is changing its climate models to project the impacts of climate change only through 2040, rather than the previous modeling through the end of the century.

“Monday’s Times report reflected the latest instance of the Trump administration’s newest environmental strategy, which mandates that without scientific evidence to back their anti-environmental actions up, it’s better just to change the evidence altogether.”

“’What we have here is a pretty blatant attempt to politicize the science — to push the science in a direction that’s consistent with their politics,’ Duffy, a member of a National Academy of Sciences panel that reviewed the government’s most recent National Climate Assessment, said.”

[SEPP Comment: Great propaganda photo of black smoke billowing from chimneys. Does this member of the National Academy of Sciences believe carbon dioxide is black?]

“Clearly, the State legislature and Governor should revisit the drought definition being used and perhaps come up with new terminology (e.g., dry condition advisory). The term “emergency” is a powerful one and should only be used in truly dire situations.”

Abstracts begins: “Mass mortality events are increasing in frequency and magnitude, potentially linked with ongoing climate change. In October 2016 through January 2017, St. Paul Island, Bering Sea, Alaska, experienced a mortality event of alcids (family: Alcidae), with over 350 carcasses recovered.” Then concludes with:

“Immediately prior to this event, shifts in zooplankton community composition and in forage fish distribution and energy density were documented in the eastern Bering Sea following a period of elevated sea surface temperatures, evidence cumulatively suggestive of a bottom-up shift in seabird prey availability. We posit that shifts in prey composition and/or distribution, combined with the onset of molt, resulted in this mortality event.”

[SEPP Comment: Hasty conclusion, changes in ocean current are not evidence of climate change; see links under Changing Seas.]

“An international team of researchers lead by Dr. Felipe Gomez from Astrobiology Center in Spain (CAB (CSIC-INTA)) has found a strain of the Nanohaloarchaeles Order bacteria embedded in samples taken from a salt chimney deposited by supersaturated water at temperatures of 89 degrees Celsius and at the extremely acidic pH of 0.25.” [Boldface added]

“You’ve probably seen the latest alarming headlines: Rising sea levels from climate change could flood 187 million people out of their homes. Don’t believe it. That figure is unrealistic—and it isn’t even new. It appears in a new scholarly paper, whose authors plucked it from a paper published in 2011. What the earlier paper actually found was that 187 million could be forced to move in the unlikely event that, in the next 80 years, no one does anything to adapt to dramatic rises in sea level.

“In real life, the 2011 paper explained, humans ‘adapt proactively,’ and ‘such adaptation can greatly reduce the possible impacts.’ That means ‘the problem of environmental refugees almost disappears.’ Realistic assumptions reduce the number to between 41,000 and 305,000—at most, less than 1/600th of the figure in those headlines.

“Sober findings get less attention than alarming and far-fetched speculation. The United Nations’ climate-panel scenarios all show that the world will be far richer and more resilient by the end of the century. That means we’ll be better able to tackle challenges like flooding—as much poorer societies have done for centuries. We have more know-how and technology than ever to build dikes, surge barriers and dams, expand beaches and construct dunes, make ecosystem-based barriers like mangrove buffers, improve building codes and construction techniques, and use land planning and hazard mapping to minimize flooding.

[After a brief discussion on how climate scientists help journalists looking for alarm Lomborg then continues:]

“The authors acknowledge this wouldn’t happen: ‘It is clear that all coastal nations have, and will continue to adapt by varying degrees to sea level rise.’ In the second scenario, they try to account for adaptation, though they assume that as soon as any nation gets as rich as Romania is today, it will freeze its efforts. Even with this odd assumption, estimated flooding costs still fall 88%. The press release announcing the study skipped the second scenario and trumpeted the $14 trillion figure. So did every news story.

“Today, some three million people are flooded annually, costing around $11 billion in flood damages and $13 billion in dike costs, a total of 0.05% of global gross domestic product. In an updated version of that influential 2011 paper, the authors examined what would happen in a more realistic world where people adapt more as they get richer. They found that even in the hottest world, spending an additional 0.003% of GDP on protection would reduce the number of displacements from flooding by two-thirds, while the total cost would fall from 0.05% to 0.008% of global GDP.

“Climate change is real and needs to be addressed, but when we are asked to spend trillions of dollars on policies that would transform the global economy, we need to demand more than hype and spin.”

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2. A Flood of Regulations Threatens to Leave California Dry

Dianne Feinstein has spent 20 years trying to stop a groundwater bank in the Mojave Desert.

SUMMARY: In presenting an interesting method of “banking” periods of heavy rain for periods of drought in California the member of the Journal editorial board begins with a Constitutional appeal for due process and equal protection under the laws, then continues:

“For nearly two decades, Sen. Dianne Feinstein and a rear guard of environmentalists have been trying to block the Los Angeles-based company Cadiz from developing a groundwater basin in the Mojave Desert. In 1998 Cadiz began plans for a groundwater bank on 50 square miles of private land in the Mojave overlying two huge watersheds that have accumulated tens of millions of acre-feet of water over the centuries and could sustain the state’s 39 million residents for years.

“Cadiz wants to store runoff from the Colorado River and mountain streams during wet years like the last one and transport some of the groundwater each year—about 50,000 acre-feet—to urban areas. A groundwater bank is akin to a savings account in which owners save earnings in times of plenty to draw down in lean years. Storing water underground reduces evaporation and environmental impacts, which is why green groups like the Natural Resources Defense Council have long preferred groundwater banks to reservoirs.

“The U.S. Interior Department approved Cadiz’s plan in 2002, but this was only the start of a tortuous regulatory review that seems to have no end. Mrs. Feinstein has lobbied regulators at all levels to intervene, claiming the Cadiz project would harm the Mojave’s rich wildlife, including the bighorn sheep and desert tortoise.

“To assuage environmental objections, Cadiz scaled back its proposed water exports by two thirds and negotiated to use Arizona & California Railroad’s right of way to build a 43-mile underground pipeline connecting to Southern California’s water supply. In 2012 the Santa Margarita Water District approved a final environmental impact report under the California Environmental Quality Act, concluding that the project’s only significant effects would be temporary dust from construction and population growth made possible by an expanded water supply. San Bernardino County also signed off on a plan to ensure Cadiz’s operations would not threaten the aquifer’s water quality or desert wildlife.

“Not surprisingly, Cadiz then got smacked with half a dozen lawsuits under California’s environmental law. Nearly all infrastructure projects in California must endure a barrage of litigation before moving forward.

“Meanwhile, Mrs. Feinstein pressed the Obama administration to intervene. In 2011 the Interior Department revised its longstanding policy that allowed railroad rights of way to be used for power, telephone and other utility connections. Interior limited the Arizona & California Railroad’s right of way “to activities that derive from or further a railroad purpose,” thus ostensibly prohibiting Cadiz’s water pipeline. So Cadiz retrofitted its proposed pipeline with a maintenance access road and an automated fire-suppression system to benefit the railroad. Interior bureaucrats quibbled with each of Cadiz’s enhancements and halted the project in 2015.

“Cadiz received a reprieve a year later when a California court of appeals rejected all of the environmental legal challenges. Then, under the Trump administration, Interior gave Cadiz the regulatory right of way to proceed.

“Mrs. Feinstein again lobbied state regulators and lawmakers to intervene. Democratic legislators in coordination with the State Lands Commission, the National Parks Conservation Association and Mrs. Feinstein’s office have crafted legislation that would require a redo of Cadiz’s California Environmental Quality Act review. The second review would be performed by the State Lands Commission, which is comprised of the lieutenant governor, controller and finance director—all Democrats.

“Environmentalists claim a do-over is necessary because new evidence suggests that Bonanza Spring, from which bighorn sheep sometimes drink, might be connected to the aquifer under Cadiz’s groundwater pumping site. A peer-reviewed study that included a former director of the U.S. Geological Survey dismissed these concerns. Ten groundwater experts who examined Bonanza Springs and the Cadiz project area also concluded that a hydrological connection was ‘impossible.’ The groundwater management plan and environmental impact statement require continuous monitoring of the aquifer.

“While the bill does not target Cadiz by name, it prohibits a ‘transferor of water from using a water conveyance facility that has unused capacity to transfer water from a groundwater basin underlying desert lands,’ which are defined by Cadiz’s precise geographic coordinates. As a legislative analysis notes pithily, ‘It’s All About Cadiz.’

“Legislation failed to pass in the past two years due to opposition from Democrat moderates. But Democrats increased their majorities in November and now hold three-quarters of the state Assembly and Senate. The legislation can now pass without votes from Democratic legislators in competitive districts.

“Mrs. Feinstein and her allies are trying to sneak the bill through in the next two weeks while the business community is focused on stopping new taxes in the state budget. Last week the legislation squeaked through the state Senate with six Democrats abstaining and one voting no. It must still pass the Assembly and be signed by Gov. Gavin Newsom, who hasn’t taken a position.

“This regulatory double jeopardy should alarm all Californians. While Cadiz may be the current target, Democrats are setting a precedent that they can compel any business that survives the state’s regulatory gauntlet to run it again. Creating an additional layer of uncertainty will surely deter many from embarking on projects—and maybe that’s the point.”

[SEPP Comment: Is there any Colorado River runoff that is not already claimed? If there is little or none, then the issue is spring runoff from California streams, etc.]

4 thoughts on “Weekly Climate and Energy News Roundup #362”

Cooling at 10 stations in Antarctica by Kirye
My reply posted at Notrickszone

Nice detail by Kirye. The link below to a chart by Willis at WUWT using CERES data 2000 to 2017 identifies the SH cooling. It is the exact latitudes that all of the stations used in the above post.

Why did these stations and that latitude band cool is the primary question. This one is easy. Increased convection at low and tropical latitudes causes an action over Antarctica resulting in cold air to flow down off the continent and across the sea resulting in ideal sea ice formation conditions. The stations are in the pathway of the flow. Antarctic sea ice area has increased during increased tropical convection.

The cooling of the SST off the coast in the last figure is a direct result of the surface cold air flowing off the continent outwards onto the sea where it mixes with the warmer air rotating around Antarctica.

For every action there is a reaction. People talk of atmospheric connections but no one bothers to tie them together despite the over abundance of data available. Computer modeling has set back atmospheric research by at least 20 years. If you can’t see what is occurring in the raw data how do you expect a model to show it. Models hide the detail, they are similar to a bench top blender for making smoothies.
Regatds

Solar activity picked up a bit in May. The ‘classic’ sunspot count (Wolf SSN) is just above 7 points while the new SIDC reconstructed number is at 10.1 Composite graph is here
SC24 is entering what might be the start of a prolong minimum (possible late start of SC25 too) but “even a ‘dead cat bounce’ from these levels appear to be out of question”.
Start of SC25 might be slow, but a cross over SC14/25 according to my calculations might be in the early 2020.
What about SC25?
If my calculations are any good (the last time gave ‘incredibly’ accurate result :), see the link above), we have an estimate of the peak time for the next cycle. Assuming it occurs some time in 2025/26 the SC25 annual smoothed max will be in the low 50s in the old (Wolf) numbers while Dr. Svalgaard predicts much higher peak possibly around 100, or in the new corrected numbers somewhere in 140-160 region.

Just one quick note. It’s not persuasive to most of those involved with environmentalism to say that the movement is all about advancing towards a one-world government since the majority of those involved fall into the category of “useful idiots.” It’s more accurate to say that Environmentalism movement has been co-opted by the One-World Government crowd. To some extent, those inside are aware of this but close their eyes to it as they see their own agenda being advanced.

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