Tuesday, January 22, 2013

C- Chris Stewart (career wRC+ of 59!)
1B- Mark Teixeira (116 wRC+ in 2012, the fourth straight year in which that number declined)
2B- Robinson Cano (Arguably the only non-problem, though his sudden problem hitting lefties is worrisome)
SS- Derek Jeter (Had his second best offensive season since 2007 last year, also had ankle surgery)
3B- Kevin Youkilis (102 wRC+ in 2012 was the worst of his career, only 89 against RHP)
LF- Brett Gardner (career ISO of .103. Not saying he’s not a nice player, but if he’s your savior, well…)
CF- Curtis Granderson (2012 marked career worsts in batting average, on base percentage, and strikeout rate).
RF- Ichiro: (Even with that strong performance with the Yankees, his season total wRC+ was a whopping 90)
DH- ??? (You get free offense out of this position, so to speak, and the Yankees don’t even have it filled yet).

So that’s…disconcerting, if you’re a Yankee fan. I’m not saying there isn’t reason for optimism here or anything, and the best case scenario for this lineup is pretty darn good. But right now, just eyeballing it, I think the concerns outweigh the hopes, and the lowest low seems more likely to happen than the highest high.

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DH- ??? (You get free offense out of this position, so to speak, and the Yankees don’t even have it filled yet).

I think that with this team that's a feature rather than a bug. They have a bunch of guys who are old, and a bit gimpy, and/or recovering from surgery who will likely need time away from the field A full-time DH just means fewer PAs for the other starters. And if things go really well then either Youkilis or A-Rod is the full-time DH starting in July. Problem solved.

For semi-obvious reasons, for once as a Red Sox fan I haven't been following the Yankees offseason all that closely. I was surprised to see that apparently their current plan at catcher is either Chris Stewart or Francisco Cervelli.

Unless they are holding onto him dearly, I really think the Yanks should try to pry Suzuki away from Washington. Isn't a world beater by any means, but he's gotta be a step above what they currently have planned, right?

Unless they are holding onto him dearly, I really think the Yanks should try to pry Suzuki away from Washington. Isn't a world beater by any means, but he's gotta be a step above what they currently have planned, right?

If Cervelli can just match his MLB offense to date (88 wRC+) and play average D, he's a 2 WAR catcher.

That seems unlikely to me. Yeah, he's done OK in the MLB in a small sample size, but that's out of line with his minors perfomance, he didn't have many MLB at bats last season and he OPSed .657 in AAA last season.

That seems unlikely to me. Yeah, he's done OK in the MLB in a small sample size, but that's out of line with his minors perfomance

His bad minor league numbers are just as much a SSS. Through 2008, Cervelli raked in the minors ~130 wRC+ in about 600 PA. Since then he's had 580 mediocre minor league PAs across three seasons (mostly AAA) ~90 wRC+, and 562 MLB PAs with a 88 wRC+.

You can make of this whatever you like, but I'm dubious of the Triple-A numbers for the Yankees last season, since they were doing that goofy thing where they had no real home ballpark and played their "home" games in something like four different parks.

Between defections, injuries, lack of farm replacements and general expectations of aging, I've never seen a previously good Yankee roster decline so precipitously in quality over the course of a single offseason as it has since October. Bottom line is that the Yanks and the Red Sox will likely fight it out for 4th in the ALE this year, with the Red Sox likely winners. There's actually a decent chance that they'll see a drop in productivity from every last position in the starting lineup, and every spot in the rotation and bullpen. Only the law of averages makes it unlikely.

This has been a miserable, do-nothing off season for Cashman. He didn't even make an offer for Pierzynski, hasn't found a right-handed hitting outfielder, hasn't found a DH, couldn't swing a deal for Morse, and has basically failed to upgrade the roster in any tangible way. And then he comes out last week and says he's prepared to go to spring training with what he has.

The Yankees' pitching could be pretty good, and it's a little early to suggest no one will play better than last year. I'm pretty confident the Yankees will finish ahead of the Red Sox, although that won't mean as much as it used to. However, that is not to say they couldn't win the division. Other teams have problems, too.

This has been a miserable, do-nothing off season for Cashman. He didn't even make an offer for Pierzynski, hasn't found a right-handed hitting outfielder, hasn't found a DH, couldn't swing a deal for Morse, and has basically failed to upgrade the roster in any tangible way. And then he comes out last week and says he's prepared to go to spring training with what he has.

Cashman was given an explicit directive to cut $30-40M off the payroll by 2014. Given those constraints, I think he's done a pretty solid job.

Cashman was given an explicit directive to cut $30-40M off the payroll by 2014. Given those constraints, I think he's done a pretty solid job.

Even given those constraints, you'd think he would've made an offer to Pierzynski though rather than going with Cervelli/Stewart. Pierzynski seemed like a perfect fit for the Yankees and their current situation, available on a one year deal for reasonable money with no long-term commitment.

His bad minor league numbers are just as much a SSS. Through 2008, Cervelli raked in the minors ~130 wRC+ in about 600 PA. Since then he's had 580 mediocre minor league PAs across three seasons (mostly AAA) ~90 wRC+, and 562 MLB PAs with a 88 wRC+.

I don't think we know what Cervelli is.

What he did in 2008 and before is pretty irrelevant. His poor performance in AAA tells us that he's likely worse than what he's shown thus far in the majors.

It's always tough to project backup catchers with limited playing time, but Cervelli's 900 PA over the past 3 years are a strong indication that he's worse than the average catcher.

Pierzynski seemed like a perfect fit for the Yankees and their current situation, available on a one year deal for reasonable money with no long-term commitment.

Fair point. What happened there?

It would have cost at least $8M to top the Texas offer, and Pierzynski's bWAR over the past 5 years is pretty underwhelming other than his fluky 2012. Cashman probably figured that a 36 year old Pierzynski was unlikely to be materially better than Cervelli+whoever, or at least not $8M better. If money's no object I'd rather have Pierzynski, but apparently money is a very big object right now with the Yanks.

If money's no object I'd rather have Pierzynski, but apparently money is a very big object right now with the Yanks.

I was under the impression that 2014 money is a very big object, but 2013 money is pretty much normal Yankee money. And unless they're projecting Cervelli based on his big OBP numbers against college draftees in the New York Penn League, Pierzynski should rate as a very solid improvement over what they've got on the 40-man.

But if the Yankees are pinching money for 2013 as well, then yeah, I can see the logic.

According to BBref.com, Cervelli had 15 PBs in 96 games in AAA last year. Forget hitting like he has (which I think is highly unlikely), I sincerely doubt he's capable of being an average defensive catcher either. The last time Cervelli got extended time in the Majors, he looked dreadful behind the plate, which was notable considering how good he looked his first time up.

And on top of all the hitting and defensive questions (other than offense and defense, how good is he?), something that's been kind of danced around in this thread, is that he is absolutely incapable of staying healthy for a season. He's topped 90 games played twice (or 88 three times!), and topped out at 102. Some of that is usage, but he's been hurt every time the Yanks have had him with the Major League club.

I think the Yanks are looking hard at Chris Stewart because Cervelli is a horrible bet going forward.

Well one slight problem here is that the one biggest known quality of Cervelli is that he'll play super hard but isn't built like a rock, which means he's going to get hurt on a rather high probabilty and alot of those injury may have permenantly reduced his ability anyway.

Between defections, injuries, lack of farm replacements and general expectations of aging, I've never seen a previously good Yankee roster decline so precipitously in quality over the course of a single offseason as it has since October. Bottom line is that the Yanks and the Red Sox will likely fight it out for 4th in the ALE this year, with the Red Sox likely winners. There's actually a decent chance that they'll see a drop in productivity from every last position in the starting lineup, and every spot in the rotation and bullpen. Only the law of averages makes it unlikely.

IT's possible, the division is tough but geez, the Yankees have been to 3 of the last 4 ALCS including last year. I know, I know, 1965, but that's the exception, not the rule. Do you really believe the Red Sox have made up 26 games on the Yankees this off-season?

IT's possible, the division is tough but geez, the Yankees have been to 3 of the last 4 ALCS including last year. I know, I know, 1965, but that's the exception, not the rule. Do you really believe the Red Sox have made up 26 games on the Yankees this off-season?

Also, we're not really pretending the Orioles are going to be contending for the division title again this year, are we?

Between defections, injuries, lack of farm replacements and general expectations of aging, I've never seen a previously good Yankee roster decline so precipitously in quality over the course of a single offseason as it has since October. Bottom line is that the Yanks and the Red Sox will likely fight it out for 4th in the ALE this year, with the Red Sox likely winners. There's actually a decent chance that they'll see a drop in productivity from every last position in the starting lineup, and every spot in the rotation and bullpen. Only the law of averages makes it unlikely.

IT's possible, the division is tough but geez, the Yankees have been to 3 of the last 4 ALCS including last year. I know, I know, 1965, but that's the exception, not the rule. Do you really believe the Red Sox have made up 26 games on the Yankees this off-season?

Let's just say that I think the Yankees have met them well over half way. Even assuming no precipitous production drops among returning 2012 regulars, what have the Yankees done to replace the production they got from Swisher, A-Rod, Jeter, and Soriano?

And add to that the fact that of the returning regulars, Gardner is coming off a season-long injury; Teixeira's production has declined every year since he arrived in New York; and Granderson's 2011 career year looks more like a outlier in retrospect, as his K/W ratio increased by 30%. Only Cano is both relatively young and still at his peak of productivity.

Against that, the only upsides are the ones that may or may not come from the returning cripples: Gardner, A-Rod, Jeter, Mo and Pineda. I'll believe that productivity when I see it.

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Also, we're not really pretending the Orioles are going to be contending for the division title again this year, are we?

Maybe or maybe not, since the Rays always loaded, and the Jays acquired what seems like every available premier free agent. But the Orioles fought the 2012 Yankees to a virtual standstill, and they haven't even remotely suffered the degree of offseason losses that the Yanks have.

Bottom line is that I can't see the Yankees beating out any team other than (maybe) the Red Sox. The only real question is whether or not this ongoing payroll purge is actually going to pay off dividends when the luxury tax is suspended.

Bottom line is that I can't see the Yankees beating out any team other than (maybe) the Red Sox.

That's crazy talk. You can't even imagine the Yankees winning 92 games? It's entirely clear how that happens - they just need everyone to play up to their projections in rate stats, plus good health from most of the 30-somethings.

No one in the AL East is particularly good. Anyone could win it. The Blue Jays are probably the best by a slim margin, and the Orioles the worst by a reasonable margin, but there's just not enough talent separation to exclude anything.

There is not a single possible one-through-five arrangement of the 2013 AL East that would surprise me in the least way.

Yankee fans and Red Sox fans, each arguing their team is worse. We are a long, long way from 2003-04 here, people.

Also, I think the Yankees probably miss out of the playoffs this year, but among certain branches of the fandom--including many posting in this thread--it's excessively doom-and-gloom because of how terrible they looked, at times, down the stretch last year. (And of course, being swept in the ALCS doesn't help much.)

Bottom line is that I can't see the Yankees beating out any team other than (maybe) the Red Sox.

That's crazy talk. You can't even imagine the Yankees winning 92 games? It's entirely clear how that happens - they just need everyone to play up to their projections in rate stats, plus good health from most of the 30-somethings.

And what are the current rate stat projections for the C, 3B, SS, LF and RF positions that are likely to open the season, even if Jeter is in the lineup?

No one in the AL East is particularly good. Anyone could win it. The Blue Jays are probably the best by a slim margin, and the Orioles the worst by a reasonable margin, but there's just not enough talent separation to exclude anything.

IOW a relatively young team that's kept its roster intact and played at a .623 pace over the second half of the season is "worst by a reasonable margin"? While an aging team that's going to have to replace four of their starting positions (and so far has come up with Kevin Youkilis for A-Rod and Ichiro for Swisher) could win 92 games? That sounds an objective pipe that've been stuffed with a combination of opium, wishful thinking and reverse psychology.

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Yankee fans and Red Sox fans, each arguing their team is worse. We are a long, long way from 2003-04 here, people.

Also, I think the Yankees probably miss out of the playoffs this year, but among certain branches of the fandom--including many posting in this thread--it's excessively doom-and-gloom because of how terrible they looked, at times, down the stretch last year. (And of course, being swept in the ALCS doesn't help much.)

That's about 5% of it. The other 95% of it is just the result of looking at the current active roster and the projected opening day lineup, and not trying to let wishful thinking get in the way.

But yes, IF A-Rod's surgery holds for more than a month or two upon his return; and IF Jeter can return to his 2012 form at age 38/39 after major surgery; and IF Gardner doesn't become the reincarnation of Nick Johnson; and IF Ichiro can show that his last two months were more indicative of what's to come than the two years before that; and IF Granderson and Teixeira can reverse their production declines; and IF Mo comes back at the age of 43 to replace Soriano's 2012 effectiveness; and IF Hughes can finally have a breakthrough year; and IF Cano, Sabathia and Kuroda can keep it up; and IF Joba can take up video games and stay off trampoulines; and IF Pineda can recover from last year's injury, stay in shape, and achieve his vaunted potential; then sure, all my forebodings will magically disappear.

I hope I'm wrong, but I wouldn't bet a plugged nickel that the Yanks will finish any higher than 4th. They're going to need all the Aura and Mystique in the vault to get through this season.

IOW a relatively young team that's kept its roster intact and played at a .623 pace over the second half of the season is "worst by a reasonable margin"?

Yes, the club which allowed about as many runs as it scored and featured more players overachieving than underachieving projects as the worst in the division by a reasonable margin. Not by a ton, and I could easily imagine them winning 92 games, but I wouldn't bet on it.

I'd be happy to bet on the Yankees beating the Orioles this year. B-Ref sponsorship?

But yes, IF A-Rod's surgery holds for more than a month or two upon his return; and IF Jeter can return to his 2012 form at age 38/39 after major surgery; and IF Gardner doesn't become the reincarnation of Nick Johnson; and IF Ichiro can show that his last two months were more indicative of what's to come than the two years before that; and IF Granderson and Teixeira can reverse their production declines; and IF Mo comes back at the age of 43 to replace Soriano's 2012 effectiveness; and IF Hughes can finally have a breakthrough year; and IF Cano, Sabathia and Kuroda can keep it up; and IF Joba can take up video games and stay off trampoulines; and IF Pineda can recover from last year's injury, stay in shape, and achieve his vaunted potential; then sure, all my forebodings will magically disappear.

The Yankees didn't get a lot of those IF's in 2012 and they won 95 games....

They have Machado on the way, and got sustainable improvements from a lot of their players last year. I see them playing close to 55% baseball, and that's pretty damn good.

That sounds like the Orioles team that I watched scare the Yankees half to death in the second half of the season. And unlike the Yankees, they'll have all their key components back in 2013, and more likely to see those returnees improve rather than decline.

And unlike the Yankees, they'll have all their key components back in 2013, and more likely to see those returnees improve rather than decline.

I think that's not really a strong assumption. The Orioles are younger than the Yankees, but it doesn't mean guys are going to improve. Jones took a big step forward last year, as did Markakis (at least offensively, albeit in limited time). They got a collective 2.86 ERA in almost 500 innings from Hammel, Gonzalez, Ayala, O'Day, Strop and Patten. I don't see that happening again. I'm with MCoA on the O's.

The 2012 Orioles remind me of the 2007 Diamondbacks. Pythagoras hated them but they won, they improved in the second half and they seemed to have the type of young core that would improve year over year. Didn't work for the D-Backs unfortunately and I'm not sure it will work for the Orioles.

It certainly could but it's tough to succeed year to year counting on organic growth rather than bringing him help. It's not so much that I think they'll have massive declines but I don't see any place where they will improve particularly dramatically either. I can see them playing about as well as they did last year with more ordinary luck and winding up 83-79 or something of that nature.

Unless they are holding onto him dearly, I really think the Yanks should try to pry Suzuki away from Washington. Isn't a world beater by any means, but he's gotta be a step above what they currently have planned, right?

The Nats really like what Suzuki did last year, and aren't sure about Ramos' knee, and have sent out Norris, Freitas, and Flores from the catching position in the last year or so. I think they'd be asking for a lot.

And unlike the Yankees, they'll have all their key components back in 2013, and more likely to see those returnees improve rather than decline.

I think that's not really a strong assumption. The Orioles are younger than the Yankees, but it doesn't mean guys are going to improve. Jones took a big step forward last year, as did Markakis (at least offensively, albeit in limited time). They got a collective 2.86 ERA in almost 500 innings from Hammel, Gonzalez, Ayala, O'Day, Strop and Patten. I don't see that happening again. I'm with MCoA on the O's.

I meant "more likely" than the Yankees' returnees to improve rather than decline. The point was relative.

But if you'd like, when Matt returns to give me the details of his proposition, I'll be glad to make the same bet with you, that the Orioles will finish ahead of the Yankees. Hell, a few more wagers like this and the Yanks might wind up in the World Series.

The Orioles in the first half last year were lucky. In the second half, they were just downright good.

Undoubtedly true - their second half Pyth was .560, a little better than a 90-win pace. If the only thing I knew about the Orioes was their second-half 2012 numbers, I'd think they were very good.

In 2011 a young club coming off a very poor 2010 had an unexceptional start to the season (49-43) and came on like gangbusters in the second half (45-25), earning a playoff berth. They lost in the first round. The Diamondbacks regressed to the mean in 2012, winning 81 games. Something like that is the baseline expectation for the Orioles (though I have them a few wins under .500).

Absolutely, and if RB wants to make the same wager, I'll go with him as well. I'm a regular Good Ship Lollypop, an all-day sucker.

I'll put a $20 BBRef sponsorship on the Orioles finishing with a worse record than the Yankees. I spent all of last season not believing in them--Baltimore, that is--so I don't see any reason to start now.

I'll put a $20 BBRef sponsorship on the Orioles finishing with a worse record than the Yankees. I spent all of last season not believing in them--Baltimore, that is--so I don't see any reason to start now.

And since I've spent the past six weeks not believing in the Yanks, I guess that makes us even. (smile) So you're on, too, and I've bookmarked the page.

I agree with upstairs - Mauer to the Yankees just makes sense. There are certainly hurdles (including a reported NTC), but they can be overcome.

And then he comes out last week and says he's prepared to go to spring training with what he has.

Cashman has played this game before, and BBTFers fall for it every single time. As a management matter, I don't find it surprising that the organization is willing to publicly stand behind their players. We're three weeks before Valentine's day - it's always possible that this team is set, but I personally don't believe that Cashman is ready and willing to start the season with Cervelli/Stewart.

I agree with upstairs - Mauer to the Yankees just makes sense. There are certainly hurdles (including a reported NTC), but they can be overcome.

I don't see how adding another $20M+/year player makes sense for the Yankees when they're trying to hit a payroll mark below $189M for 2014. Acquiring Mauer would likely preclude signing Cano to a longterm deal.

Even assuming no precipitous production drops among returning 2012 regulars, what have the Yankees done to replace the production they got from Swisher, A-Rod, Jeter, and Soriano?

Jeter is coming back, and while Soriano will be missed, the Yanks have this kid Rivera who could fill his role. Add Robertson, Chamberlain, Aardsma, Logan, as well as the loser of the 5th starter battle between Nova & Phelps, and that could be a pretty good bullpen. I wouldn't rule out Granderson and/or Teixeira having a good season, and Cano in his potential walk year might be highly motivated. The Blue Jays may be better, but the Yanks were 22 games better last season. The Orioles will have to prove that 2012 wasn't as flukey as it appeared, and the Rays are without James Shields. Unless you think 2012 was all Bobby V's fault, I'm not seeing how the Red Sox have improved much.

Too much credit to the opposition and way too little to the Yanks. They still have the pitching to contend in the Division.

I don't see how adding another $20M+/year player makes sense for the Yankees when they're trying to hit a payroll mark below $189M for 2014.

That would be true, but only if their exclusive goal is to hit this payroll mark. Like I said, it's possible that this is true, but despite noise just like this in past years, it has never actually come to pass.

Matt, I think the primary hurdle is Mauer himself. I suspect that Minny would be happy to get out of the overpaid out years. A-Rod's future obligations are the worst in baseball, but Mauer is in the top three.

A-Rod's future obligations are the worst in baseball, but Mauer is in the top three.

I also disagree with this. If Mauer has to be a full-time first baseman, he's still a 3-4 WAR player with his OBP skills. There's a risk of full collapse, but I'd rather have Mauer than ARod, Teixeira, Crawford, Howard, Wells, Soriano, Werth or Ethier. Fielder's contract is likely to get bad real soon, too. Gonzalez may not look good in a year, too, if he can't find his power stroke again.

Even assuming no precipitous production drops among returning 2012 regulars, what have the Yankees done to replace the production they got from Swisher, A-Rod, Jeter, and Soriano?

Jeter is coming back, and while Soriano will be missed, the Yanks have this kid Rivera who could fill his role. Add Robertson, Chamberlain, Aardsma, Logan, as well as the loser of the 5th starter battle between Nova & Phelps, and that could be a pretty good bullpen. I wouldn't rule out Granderson and/or Teixeira having a good season, and Cano in his potential walk year might be highly motivated. The Blue Jays may be better, but the Yanks were 22 games better last season. The Orioles will have to prove that 2012 wasn't as flukey as it appeared, and the Rays are without James Shields. Unless you think 2012 was all Bobby V's fault, I'm not seeing how the Red Sox have improved much.

Too much credit to the opposition and way too little to the Yanks. They still have the pitching to contend in the Division.

Just say the word if you want to add your $20 BB-Ref sponsorship bet to Matt's and RB's. I don't mind sponsoring another player if it means the Yanks exceed my expectations, but remember, this particular offer is only about the Yanks and the O's, not the Red Sox.

I also disagree with this. If Mauer has to be a full-time first baseman, he's still a 3-4 WAR player with his OBP skills

Ya I wouldn't trade Mauer for anything less than lots of prospects. It may be true that at 3 WAR he has little surplus value in his contract but if the Twins are going to spend $90M on payroll, Mauer isn't going to be their problem. Surplus value is a stupid concept anyway, at least as defined on Fangraphs. It might make sense for the Twins to pay a big chunk of Mauer's salary for very good prospects, but there's no way they should or would just dump him.

I think that's not really a strong assumption. The Orioles are younger than the Yankees, but it doesn't mean guys are going to improve. Jones took a big step forward last year, as did Markakis (at least offensively, albeit in limited time). They got a collective 2.86 ERA in almost 500 innings from Hammel, Gonzalez, Ayala, O'Day, Strop and Patten. I don't see that happening again. I'm with MCoA on the O's.

Machado could take a big step forward. Weiters is also young/good enough to improve. We may not have seen Nolan Reimold's best season yet, either. I do agree that their pitching will seriously regress, but the offense could be gangbusters.

I'm not seeing how Markakis to such a big step forward last year. Looks to me like he rebounded after a year or so spent slumping. It's not like he put up a 1.000 OPS season with 40 HRs.

Also, I have to wonder how much of Baltimore's hitting success was a result of getting rid of Terry Crowley. That dude was hitting coach forever despite seeming to have no success at all and somehow overseeing almost exclusively failed transitions to the majors for nearly all of their hitting prospects.

Also, I know it's a formula for disaster to count on Adam Jones to sustain his success, but there are three reasons why I think he might be able to do it:

1) He is entering his prime years.

2) He didn't have that good of a year.

3) One of the things the dudes over at USSMariner loved so much about him as a prospect was how he seemed to grow a little each season and work hard to become a better player. They felt he was constantly putting things together and had a huge future ahead of him (thus their total meltdown when he was traded to Baltimore in the first place).

There is not a single possible one-through-five arrangement of the 2013 AL East that would surprise me in the least way.

I can see anyone of them finishing first, but I can't imagine the Blue Jays finishing last. If they do, I might have to stop watching baseball. Probably because my wife will ban it if she has to listen to the swearing that will be going on in our house if the Jays lose that many games.

I mean, not to be a downer, but doesn't Josh Johnson re-injures his shoulder + Jose Reyes re-injures his hamstrings get you about 75% of the way there?

Yes, and Ricky Romero could lead the league in BBs and have the worst ERA again, and Bret Lawrie's power outage could continue, Melky could go back to being one of the worst starting LFers, and on and on. This team has a lot of question marks, but the upside is higher than most. It could very well be the most frustrating Jays season ever, just because of the expectations.