Middle ground manoeuvers

Shifting perspectives: ideas once considered radical and unacceptable are now the new norm. Photo: Chief-Exec.com

October 26, 2016

The major political parties in Western democracies are scrambling to attempt to understand and respond to what appears to be a spreading revolution against mainstream conventional political thinking on many of today’s big issues.

The shock of Britain’s vote in June to leave the European Union is just one of a series of political earthquakes that have brought about, or seem likely to bring about, what had until recently seemed to be unacceptable policy changes.

Globalisation and economic liberalisation – which have been the big world changing ideas of the late 20th and early 21st centuries and which had appeared inexorable – are now being resisted in ways which even a year ago would have seemed impossible.

And in their urgent need to try to understand the factors which have so suddenly changed the course of these deeply entrenched policy and philosophical norms, political analysts have suddenly been giving a lot of attention to what is known as the Overton Window theory.

The key point about this theory – developed in the early 1990s by American political scientist Joseph P Overton – is that it helps explain how, what seemed entrenched, accepted policies and ideas, could suddenly face challenge and change from what had previously appeared to be radical and unacceptable alternatives.

Overton argues that politicians and policy makers are often caught unaware of – or unwilling to acknowledge – the effects on community attitudes of social change affecting their lives.

The first to tune into community discontent with these changes are populists who tap into and exploit and challenge the failure of the “elite” to respond to this discontent.

For politicians and policy makers dedicated to maintaining course on what they had regarded as inviolable fundamentals, the willingness of the community to embrace what had previously seemed unacceptable alternatives is a deep conundrum. For those who believe that the community is wrong, and that it has to be persuaded to reject the unacceptable extreme, the challenge is to shift the “window” back to the acceptable middle.

This captures neatly the story of Brexit.

But the Overton Window is moving throughout the democratic world.

And there is a clear case study to be found in Australia.

The “Window” moved nearly two decades ago in Australia on the issue of immigration and border protection – and has never moved back.

In the mid-1990s, an endorsed candidate for the governing, conservative Liberal-National Party coalition was dis-endorsed on the eve of a general election for making anti-immigration based racist statements. The candidate, Pauline Hanson, subsequently established her own political party, One Nation, which took policy positions to the right of the mainstream.

One Nation was xenophobic, opposed Asian immigration to Australia (arguing Australia was being “swamped by Asians”) and argued for a return to a nostalgic view of a “white Australia” in which Australian industry was protected from imports and “political correctness” was rolled back.

Significantly, the conservative prime minister at the time, John Howard, initially declined to confront Hanson’s views, arguing that what she was saying reflected the views of many Australians.

In doing so, he allowed the Overton Window to shift sharply to the right, a shift that allowed him to adopt hardline policies on border control and refugees when the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq resulted in a sharp rise in the numbers of “boat people” arriving on Australian shores. Those harsh policies are still the backbone of Australian border control, despite international condemnation.

Howard’s conservatives “harvested” the One Nation vote base and the party’s support faded, while Howard went on to a near record four successive terms in office.

But in the recent Australian election, One Nation had a resurgence driven by anti-globalisation sentiment, rejection of the science of global warming, spiced up with a new target identified by Hanson. She argued that Australia should stop Muslim immigration because it was being “swamped by Muslims”, a claim the mainstream political parties reject, both because the facts don’t support One Nation’s claims and because of the dangerous divisions that would be exacerbated by targeting Australian Muslims. But Hanson’s party still managed to win four seats in the Senate, giving it casting-vote power over government legislation. The latest polls show support for One Nation rising.

While anti-immigration and hostility towards refugees was the force that shifted the Overton Window to the right, the result has been a shift to the right more broadly – just as is now occurring in many other countries.

That shift will surely accelerate if Donald Trump wins the US Presidency.

But even if he doesn’t, the shift in Europe seems to have a momentum that challenges the fundamental, underlying principles on which the European project was based.

How to bring the affairs of western democracies back to re-embrace the values that guided them to relative peace and prosperity for more than seven decades, how to bring the Overton Window back from the right to the centre – is the leadership challenge of our times.

News Bites

May to hold talks with Merkel in Berlin
Theresa May is due to hold talks with German Chancellor Angela Merkel as she seeks to make progress on negotiating Brexit. The PM will travel to Berlin for the meeting at the Chancellery. It comes a day ahead of a speech on Saturday in which she is expected to set out the “security partnership” she wants to maintain with the EU. The UK is under pressure to reveal more detail about the final relationship it wants with the EU. Mrs May and her ministers are setting out what has been dubbed “the road to Brexit” in a series of speeches. BBC news, February 16

UK aims to keep financial rules close to EU
The UK is ready to set out its vision for how it wants financial services to operate after Brexit and favours an ambitious “mutual recognition” of regulations to preserve the City of London’s access to the EU. Under Britain’s proposal, the UK and the EU would recognise each other’s regulatory and supervisory regimes and would have aligned rules at the point of Brexit, with a mechanism that would monitor any divergence. Three senior figures briefed on Brexit discussions in the cabinet said that the government will back the proposal, which is also favoured by Mark Carney, the Bank of England governor. Financial Times, February 16

Business leader warns May against harsh immigration policy
British companies are facing a recruitment crisis, with labour shortages hitting critical levels in some sectors, according to a business leader who has urged the government to produce details on a post-Brexit immigration system. Adam Marshall, the director general of the British Chambers of Commerce, said the lack of candidates for some jobs was biting hard, and he warned ministers against bringing forward a “draconian and damaging” visa or work permit system. Surveys by the BCC showed that nearly three-quarters of firms trying to recruit had been experiencing difficulties “at or near the highest levels since [BCC] records began over 25 years ago”, he said. The Guardian, February 16

Lecturers want ‘radical’ tuition fee review
University staff are calling for a “radical” overhaul of tuition fees and higher education funding in England in a review of student finance. Sally Hunt, leader of the University and College Union, says the review must be more than “tinkering at the edges”. The review, expected to be formally announced in the near future, follows a promise by the prime minister to examine the cost of university. Theresa May said the review would show “we have listened and we have learned”. Ms Hunt, whose members are threatening strike action next week in a pensions dispute, says there needs to be a “fundamental look at university funding”. BBC news, February 16

Shampoo ‘as bad a health risk as car fumes’
Shampoo, oven cleaner, deodorant and other household products are as significant a source of the most dangerous form of air pollution as cars, research has found. Scientists studying air pollution in Los Angeles found that up to half of particles known as volatile organic compounds (VOCs) came from domestic products, which also include paint, pesticides, bleach and perfumes. These compounds degrade into particles known as PM2.5, which cause respiratory problems and are implicated in 29,000 premature deaths each year in the UK. Traffic had been assumed to be the biggest source of air pollution. The new findings, published in the journal Science, led to warnings that countries may struggle to hit pollution targets, with most tackling vehicle emissions. The Times, February 16

US rejects China bid for Chicago Stock Exchange
The US has rejected a proposed merger between the Chicago Stock Exchange and a Chinese-linked investor group. The decision comes after more than two years of reviews by officials. The tie-up was initially approved by the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States, pending further approval by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). But US politicians, including President Trump, have said letting a Chinese firm invest in a US exchange was a bad idea. Under the proposal, the Chinese-led North America Casin Holdings group would have bought a minority share of the privately owned Chicago Stock Exchange. BBC news, February 16

Labour gets 16,000 emails in five days urging it to consult on Brexit
More than 16,000 people have emailed Labour over the past five days, urging the party to consult members on Brexit after MPs said the topic was being ignored by its most senior policy body. The emails from party members will be examined by the party’s national policy forum (NPF), which meets this weekend in Leeds, and whose members include the shadow cabinet and trade union leaders. Labour has set up eight policy commissions since last year’s general election, to consult members and develop policy, but none focus on Brexit. The party has said Brexit is covered under the international policy commission, involving Keir Starmer, the shadow Brexit secretary, but that commission is not at the moment accepting submissions on Brexit. The Guardian, February 15