TAMPA—It might be wince-inducing for the Leafs to look backwards. But the view straight up ahead is even less pleasing.

The last time Toronto met the Lightning, captain Steven Stamkos rattled off a natural hat trick in front of family and friends at the Air Canada Centre. “I was a little disappointed there was no hats on the ice,” the native of Markham said afterwards. “I guess I’ll take it anyway.”

The final time Toronto meets the Lighting this regular season, here tonight, might very well decide once and for all the team’s playoff — non-playoff — fate.

A single point by Columbus against Phoenix at home this evening, coupled with a loss by the Leafs, and it’s curtains for the blue-and-white, as opposed to the blue-black-silver, who’ve already clinched a playoff spot.

“These games are so important for Toronto,” noted Stamkos, who potted his trio versus the Leafs March 19, in just his seventh game back from a four-month absence after breaking his right leg. “They’re fighting for their lives right now.”

March 19: Fans might recall that date on the Leaf calendar.

James Reimer — since returned to the net as Toronto starter with Jonathan Bernier on the injury shelf — surrendered the first goal to the Bolts on their first shot, an innocent-looking lob from just inside the blue line, in what became an eventual 5-3 loss, their third in a row en route to a screeching 8-game skid. Just the previous night, after a loss in Detroit, coach Randy Carlyle had famously said his netminder’s performance was “just okay.”

Reimer will need to be better than just okay against the Bolts, who have dropped their last two on home ice — they’re 5-3-2 in their last 10 — but with Stamkos on a 10 goal and four assist tear through the last 13 games.

“I think we’re going to get everything the Leafs have,” warned Tampa lawyer-turned-hockey-coach Jon Cooper, “and I don’t know what that’s going to be. Their backs are against the wall. They’re running out of games and they’re running out of time to catch up. ...We’ve only beat them once this year; they’ve beat us twice. They are a dangerous, dangerous team.

“You go through every single team. I don’t know if you can throw out a more talented line than J.V.R, Kesssel and Bozak.” James van Riemsdyk, Phil Kessel and Tyler Bozak, Toronto’s top troika.

“And their desperation level is high. I don’t care who they’re missing out of the line-up. It doesn’t affect the way they come out to play. This is do or die for them.”

One player who may not be in the line-up — game-time decision — is Dave Bolland, experiencing recurring pain from the severed ankle tendon that caused him to miss most of the season and still come back probably too soon. Playing has clearly aggravated the repair-job.

“Bollie is going to be a question mark right up till warm-up,” said Carlyle after the morning skate. “He tried it this morning. I would say that he’s not a 100 per cent. It’s another question mark for our line-up tonight.”

Already missing, of course, is winger Joffrey Lupul, left back in Toronto with a knee injury that will be addressed with arthroscopic surgery.

Bolland’s iffy status triggered the recalling from the Marlies of forward Carter Ashton, the 6-foot-3 23-year-old who has been up and down this past season, still looking for his first NHL goal, though potting a bucketful in the American Hockey League.

It’s possible Ashton would shift to the centre, if Bolland is a no-go. But Carlyle sounds inclined to possibly move him even further up the depth chart. There’s an opening on the second line.

“The thing with Ash, it’s been one of those (situations) that when he’s come here and played with us, his confidence level seems to erode. Whereas when he goes back to the Marlies, he’s the best player. Hands down, when he goes back there he’s better every time. So we think that we have to bridge some of the opportunity for him and maybe play him a little higher in the line-up versus playing him on the fourth line position. Let him play with some skilled players, give him more of an opportunity with minutes in the hockey again. But then again, a player has to earn it too.

“He doesn’t cheat you on effort, that’s for sure. He’s a big guy who goes out there, can skate, patrol the wing, and he’s got to be physical. I think, personally, he’s got to get a comfort zone.”

That news was imparted to Ashton minutes later in the visitors’ dressing room.

“It’s definitely been a process,” said Ashton, a former Lightning first-round draft pick swapped with Toronto for defenseman Keith Aulie two years ago. “Each time you get the opportunity, when you go up and down, you’ve got to get better as a player. I learned a lot this year.”

Thirty-one games with the Leafs this year -- with three assists and 19 penalty minutes and a really bloody broken nose.

“I think I’ve definitely gained more confidence down there (the Marlies). I don’t think it’s a question of my confidence in my abilities. It’s just translating it to the NHL. I’m definitely looking forward to that tonight.”

Maybe his first time in the G-column tonight?

“I’m looking for that first NHL goal. Any opportunity, any time, I’m looking to bang one in. Tonight wouldn’t be a bad time.”

Whatever Toronto’s looming fate, the players clearly need to at least atone for their stinky, bewilderingly flat effort against Winnipeg last Saturday -- a defeat that dropped them further into the abyss in the Eastern Conference when they could have overtaken Columbus.

“We’re looking for a response off our performance the other night,” said Carlyle. “That’s what we’ve asked of them. We’re not happy with what transpired. And the only way we’re going to be judged is to go out and compete to the level that we’re capable of.”

It might be impossible to keep their eyes off the out-of-town scoreboard, however.

“Our focus is right here, tonight,” said Dion Phaneuf. “We’ve got to worry about taking care of our business. That’s all that is in our control right now -- our games and the points that are available to us.

“Obviously, there’s games going on around us that have lots of implications. We’re well aware of where we’re at and we’re focused on tonight.”

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