Molly Moilanen, director of public affairs for ClearWay Minnesota, an anti-smoking group, said price is “king” when it comes to driving down smoking.

Dr. Courtney Jordan Baechler, of the Penny George Institute for Health and Healing at Allina Health, said 53,000 high school students in Minnesota smoke daily.

Of these 53,000 — people who smoke later in life generally start early, anti-smoking advocates say — 17,000 will die premature deaths because of the habit, the doctor said.

That increasing the tax on a pack of cigarettes will indeed decrease smoking is factored into a revenue department analysis of the governor’s 94-cent increase proposal.

Currently, for 2014, some 226 million packs of cigarettes are expected to be sold in Minnesota.

Using an elasticity model — Revenue Department Assistant Commissioner Susan Von Mosch said in analyzing past tax hikes the model was “spot on” — predicts a 31 million decrease in the number of cigarette packs sold.

While not disputing that increasing the cigarette tax could reduce numbers of smokers, Gazelka asked whether the increase would also mean additional financial burden to those Minnesotans who don’t quit.

“We know tobacco causes tremendous harm,” Ehlinger said.

The economic incentive to quit will be there, Ehlinger explained.

Minnesota Wholesale Marketers Executive Director Thomas Briant warned that increasing the cost of a carton of cigarettes by $18 would make Minnesota retailers less competitive.

It would encourage black market sales of cigarettes, he said.

Cort Holten, of Cigar Association of America, in brief testimony, asked lawmakers to do away with the “delusion” of the health care impact fee — a legacy of the Pawlenty Administration.

It’s a tax, he said.

News that the projected budget shortfall for the next two-year spending cycle improved by $463 million may not have immediately affected the cigarette-tax increase initiative.

“It’s is regressive,” Dayton said of his tax proposal, speaking after the release of the February budget forecast.

But it’s intended to prevent people from smoking, or causing them to quit, he said.

Senate Majority Leader Tom Bakk indicated a cigarette tax increase could be included in the Senate tax bill.

“I think there’s a pretty strong likelihood some version, maybe not exactly the governor’s number, but some version, will be in the bill,” he said.

Bakk does not support a tax increase.

“Personally, no. Just because of the regressive nature of it,” Bakk said.

According to Ehlinger, about 16 percent of Minnesotans, or about 625,000 people, smoke.