Analysis: 3-point shooting might be biggest problem a new Lakers coach will tackle

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Much was made of the front office’s failure to add enough shooters to the Lakers’ roster last summer, but some of those veterans still outshot young players such as, from left, Josh Hart, Lonzo Ball, Brandon Ingram and Kyle Kuzma, some of whom saw their 3-point shooting numbers regress this season. (Photos courtesy of AP and Getty Images)

Over half a dozen times this past season, Kyle Kuzma changed his shooting form.

Sometimes it was the stroke. Sometimes it was where he landed. Tweaking, tweaking, always tweaking. And yet, after a sophomore campaign in which he shot just a hair over 30 percent from 3-point range, in the end, he decided that it was the tinkering that hurt his shooting more than any original flaw.

“For me, I kind of over-analyzed my jump shot this year,” he said after the season ended. “Thought about it way too much. I think my rookie year I was able to just let it fly. Not really think about nothing. Stayed with about the same form and the consistency of that this year, I kind of let it get to me.”

Kuzma is hardly alone on a Lakers roster that shot 33.3 percent, second-to-last in the NBA. And no matter who the next Lakers coach is, it’s an issue that will be analyzed to death as the team tries to figure out how to climb back out of the lottery in a league that is becoming increasingly reliant on 3-point shooting.

It’s no secret that so many of the Lakers’ offensive problems hinged on an inability to shoot 3-pointers, but it’s the blame that gets complex. For all the heat the front office has taken for not signing shooters, it’s notable that the Lakers’ top 3-point shooters by percentage were mostly new acquisitions, including Lance Stephenson (37.1 percent) and Rajon Rondo (35.9 percent). Besides Alex Caruso’s late run (48 percent 3-point shooting), the highest shooting percentage by a player returning under contract was Josh Hart, who shot just 33.6 percent. Players who took a step back hurt the Lakers at least as much as roster construction.

But then is that coaching? If that’s what the Lakers determined, then Luke Walton’s departure should help, right? And yet it seemed notable that Walton, in his opening press conference for the Sacramento Kings, made at least one promise: “We’re gonna shoot a lot more threes.” Does that indicate that Walton thought the Lakers, who attempted 31 3-pointers per game this past season (17th in the NBA), didn’t think it was a strength of the roster he fielded?

The postmortem is complicated, but the urgency is not: 3-point shooting is an area where the Lakers have to improve quickly, and their identity as a team that racked up points in the paint last season gave them a distinct disadvantage.

There are teams that are changing the calculus of the NBA by how many 3-pointers they shoot: Nowhere is this better demonstrated than in Houston, which leads the league with more than 16 made 3-pointers per game, and gets 42.5 percent of its points from beyond the arc (to mark how extreme this is, Atlanta has the second-highest ratio with 34.4 percent). It’s not surprising to note that Houston and Milwaukee, the two teams that led the league in both 3-point attempts and makes, are two of the favorites in their respective conferences.

For teams like the Lakers, who relied so heavily on scoring in transition and in the paint this season, there’s a fundamental problem of scoring 2-pointers while giving up 3-pointers, which manifested in an overall deficit. The Lakers had the second-highest ratio of points in the paint last season (49.8 percent), which most nights was their stated goal. And yet of the teams that had a high ratio of their scoring in the paint – a top five that includes the New Orleans Pelicans, Chicago Bulls and Miami Heat – only the Denver Nuggets went to the playoffs this season.

The Lakers shot fewer 3-pointers than their opponents in 51 of their games this season, which meant they had to make up the gap in other areas, either at the free-throw line or through efficiency. Being the second-worst free-throw shooting team in the league (69.5 percent) didn’t help compensate, which helps explain how a top-10 shooting team (47 percent, No. 9 in the NBA) finished in the bottom third of offensive rating (107.4, No. 24).

Nothing quite demonstrated the disadvantage the Lakers faced this year the way their Jan. 19 overtime loss to Houston did, a 138-134 affair in which the Rockets erased a 20-point deficit. While an injury to Lonzo Ball and the ejection of Walton both hurt the Lakers’ chances to win, the biggest statistical gulf was that the Rockets made 25 3-pointers (on 68 attempts) to just 10 by the Lakers (on 37 attempts). It didn’t matter that the Lakers made more shots (50 to 42) overall, shot at a far higher efficiency (52.1 percent to 42 percent) and dominated the glass (56 to 39). In the end, Houston had the long ball, and the Lakers did not.

What’s most disconcerting is how many of those overall shots appeared to be open. NBA tracking data, while not perfect, presents a window into how the Lakers failed to capitalize. On catch-and-shoot 3-point attempts, the Lakers shot just 33.6 percent, the lowest rate in the league. According to the same tracking data, they also struggled with shots the NBA classifies as “open” shots (32.2 percent with defenders 4-6 feet away) and “wide open” shots (35 percent with defenders more than 6 feet away). It indicates that even when the team managed to manufacture quality looks, the players couldn’t bury them – or another uncomfortable thought, which is that defenses felt free to leave the Lakers’ worst shooters open and never paid for it.

It’s also concerning how many of those players who truly struggled are slated to come back next season. Kuzma and Hart, who were promising as rookies, both backslid. Brandon Ingram dropped from 39 percent to 33 percent. Lonzo Ball inched up from his poor rookie shooting, but is still under 33 percent. Even James, who showed an occasional flair for deep pull-up 3-pointers, shot under 34 percent for just the second time in the last eight seasons. With several of those players going into the offseason with injury concerns, it’s unclear how much time they can devote to improving their shooting mechanics.

The mandate to be better behind the arc is also dictated by the blueprint of James’ championship-contending teams. It’s worth noting that during his four-year run in Cleveland, James’ teams were always a top-10 team in 3-point percentage.

On his way out, Magic Johnson claimed that a number of top shooters available last year in free agency were signing multi-year deals. That won’t be much of a scapegoat for the front office this coming offseason, with an estimated 40 percent of the league’s workforce entering free agency. While the Lakers have made no secret that they’re targeting an elite star, some of the NBA’s best catch-and-shoot specialists will be on the market: Danny Green, J.J. Redick, Darren Collison and Patrick Beverley are all free agents who shot better than 42 percent on catch-and-shoot 3-pointers last year. No one on the Lakers with at least 100 attempts topped 38.6 percent (Reggie Bullock, who was buoyed by his shooting numbers with the Pistons).

It’s going to have to be a multi-pronged attack at the problem for the Lakers, with eyes on roster-building, player development and scheme. As with a player who tries to tweak his jump shot, the answer is rarely straightforward.

Kyle Goon covers the Lakers for the Southern California News Group. Before taking his talents to Los Angeles, he worked for The Salt Lake Tribune for eight years, covering everything from high school rodeo to the Utah Jazz. Gregg Popovich once baptized him by fire in a media scrum.