Current Marketing Thoughts

Kevin Van Trump has over 20 years of experience in the grain and livestock industry.

What Bullish News is Left for Corn?

Apr 28, 2014

Corn traders were eager to see today's planting progress numbers that came in at 19%. The trade seemed to be looking for number of between 20-25% planted. You have to assume anything 20% or lower as being viewed as bullish and anything 25% or higher would have been viewed as bearish. The northern areas of the belt continue to be a concern with cool wet conditions persisting. I still have a hard time figuring out why the trade is so nervous and concerned about the current pace, especially in the northern regions, when it's still just April. I have heard agronomist after agronomist talk about corn in the northern-belt being of little concern or in danger of yield drag as long as it's planted by May 10th or in some cases as late as May 20th. One could argue this year is somewhat unusual in the fact there is such a wide variance amongst producers in similar locations. Point being, you have some guys in Iowa who are 100% planted while some located not that far away are not only 0% planted but still need to get in fields to put on anhydrous. As I sit here today, I do not believe you can take the "pace of US corn planting" and put it in your hand as a bullish card...I just don't see it as of yet. Producers should keep current hedges in place and prepare to make another small sale if we can get new-crop DEC14 prices up closer to the $5.25 area. CLICK HERE for my daily report...