We forecast the Vietnamese dong to remain stable against the USD over the near-term as the central bank is keen and able to manage the currency. Over the longer-term, we forecast the VND to weaken moderately against the dollar given higher inflation and an expensive REER, but higher real GDP growth should bring about outperformance in total return terms.

Following Vietnam's spectacular real GDP showing of 7.5% y-o-y in Q317, which brings cumulative growth to 6.4% y-o-y, we have upgraded our forecast to 6.5% for 2017, and 6.7% for 2018. We expect the export manufacturing and services sector to continue outperforming, but note that growth is unlikely to be sustained at the 7+% level over the coming quarters.

Tensions between Vietnam and China have soared to a three-year high after a series of maritime spats in the South China Sea which started in June 2017. While we see no end to the maritime dispute between the two countries, and neither side is likely to tone down their tough rhetoric over the near-term, an escalation of tensions into an armed conflict is unlikely in the foreseeable future. Both...

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