Reds vs. Marlins — July 21, 2017

After going 1-6 through the first seven games of the 10-game home stand and being outscored 58-16 in those six losses, the Cincinnati Reds (40-55) try to salvage what’s left of it as they welcome the Miami Marlins (42-51) to town for a three game series at Great American Ball Park. First pitch is at 7:10 EDT.

The Marlins come in hitting 9th in the NL in OPS and 7th in OBP. However, they are 3rd in the NL in batting average and 3rd in total hits. Overall, it looks as if the Marlins and the Reds have similar offenses in terms of the numbers. The Reds are 6th in the NL in OPS and 8th in OBP.

As for the pitching, Marlins pitchers have been better than the Reds (what team isn’t?), but not a lot better. The Marlins currently rank 11th in the NL in ERA, and are tied with the Reds for most walks given up in the NL (363). Unlike the Reds, however, Marlins pitchers do not give up the home run ball. While the Reds have allowed 166 home runs, the Marlins have surrendered only 102 this season.

Starting Pitchers

Pitcher

IP

ERA

xFIP

K%

BB%

Homer Bailey

21.1

10.13

4.95

15.6%

10.1%

Jose Urena

89.1

3.93

5.53

15.9%

8.6%

It’s hard to judge Bailey on the five starts he’s made thus far. In two of those games, Bailey pitched against one of the best offensive teams in the Washington Nationals and got shellacked, giving up 16 runs on 14 hits in 5.2 innings. But he has also shown flashes of his old self against Arizona and Colorado, pitching six innings or more and giving up only one run in each of those starts. He has struck out 17 in 21.1 innings, but he’s also walked 11.

In 2015, 25-year-old Jose Urena was the Marlins’ #4 prospect. He’s now in the middle of his third year in the majors, and has already surpassed his total innings pitched from the previous year. After starting the season in the bullpen, the Marlins moved him to the rotation at the beginning of May. He’s a hard-throwing right hander, with an average fastball velocity of 95.7, and has a changeup and a slider in his arsenal.

Urena is coming off a rough start against the Dodgers, in which he gave up five runs in three innings. The Dodgers are beating everybody right now though, so it’d be unfair to judge Urena’s performance based on that start.

Giancarlo Stanton and his powerful swing makes his once a year appearance at GABP. Stanton currently leads the NL in home runs with 30 and has five home runs in 19 career games in Cincinnati. Left fielder Marcell Ozuna might be the one to watch this weekend, however. The first-time All-Star is having a breakout year, hitting .315/.373/.555, with an OPS of .928, and has continued to hit since the break, going 7-for-23 with two runs scored.

Much like Ozuna, Zack Cozart has continued his solid hitting after the break, going 7-for-18 with two home runs, three walks, and three runs scored. His trade value keeps going up, and the intrigue surrounding the Reds and whether they will trade him or won’t trade him continues.

Five batters in the Reds lineup tonight have had success against Urena, including Scott Schebler who is 3-for-3, and Tucker Barnhart, who is 1-for-2 with a home run.

Final Thoughts

I’m not sure how I feel about this move. On one hand, Peraza’s plate discipline has been downright awful this season. He has just six walks this season and 51 strikeouts. And in 2016, his walk/strikeout numbers were similar. On the other hand, he’s only 23 and could use the experience to improve his game. The Reds definitely shouldn’t give up on Peraza yet, and being that the team is out of contention, this could be the perfect time to work on his approach at the plate. This is the time for the Reds to evaluate what they have in the young stars, to see who could potentially help them contend in 2018.

I’m guessing that because Scooter Gennett is playing well, Bryan Price wants to reward him with playing time. If Peraza is indeed pressing too much as Price thinks he is, Price sees this as a good opportunity to get Gennett playing time and give Peraza a bit of a break. And of course, everything could change in a week if Cozart is traded by the deadline.

77 thoughts on “Reds vs. Marlins — July 21, 2017”

He probably should go to Louisville to play every day with the specific instructions on improving strike zone discipline and recognition. That’s not going to improve playing three or four times per week with the big league team.

The Cards sent Grichuk down to work on his offense and is back and looking good. Why can’t we send Peraza down to work on his offense? Arizona sent Marte down and then brought him back up . He as well is 23. Wishing Bob Steve all the luck on Saturday.

Scooter needs to platoon at 2B…period. It took way too long to make the move from Peraza to Scooter, so I don’t expect Price or DW to recogonize the obvious and put a platoon partner on the 25-man roster and in the lineup for probably another year.

Excited to see Stephenson get another shot. Kid obviously has all the tools in the world, just couldn’t harness it. Let’s see if things are starting to click. His AAA seem to say yes, but I want to see him do it at the MLB level.

I hope Stephensen does well.The Reds don’t have the same patience they showed with Disco and Finny.Unless they give these young pitchers a legitimate chance to pitch without fear of being sent back down after getting hammered a few times they might as well just release them or trade them all.This kid pitching tonight is a good example of a good organization that was indeed willing to let him take his lumps the last two years and some this year but he still gets the ball tonight.

Amir Garrett implosion in Louisville.
He is hurt. No way a guy plays twice in the All Star Futures game….makes a top100 prospect list and strikes out 12 against the Orioles in 7 innings and then fails this badly.
Pull the plug and dig deeper. Something is very wrong.

Is Homer Bailey reinventing himself? Not the power out her…..but a strike thrower with movement. . ….keep them off balance….. keep them guessing 2017 version of 2012 Bronson Arroyo….throw any pitch on any count??? Homer Bailey isn’t dominant but he is pitching….yes indeed….pitching with a purpose…….and throwing strikes and good hitters aren’t barreling baseballs and arent comfortable and are making outs instead.
This is fun to watch.

Wow….Scooter makes the error but they would’ve got out of it with no harm except Joey wasn’t paying attention and wandered off the bag? Their guy wandered off first so of course Joey should go behind him for the double up? The ball beats Gordon easily but Joey is 2 steps from the bag? 2 losing teams not paying attention

They just have too many guys struggling right now….can’t afford dumb errors and giving away runs! Scooter makes the physical error but Joey’s mental hitter bothers me more. He had another one in this homestand! They had bases loaded & 1 out and the ball was hard hit to him behind the bag…the play was the force at home and he hesitated and only got the out at first.

well considering he had to travel for the AS game and all the activities that go along with that it is far from a normal all-star break now is it? He was able to have monster 2nd half seasons as a result to having a real break after the AS game.