Thursday, October 25, 2012

Sustainable City Services: Cycle of Housing
Stock and Age of Residents

When
looking at city services, do the needs fluctuate from decade to decade or half
century to half century? For example, robust school enrollment followed by
declining enrollment and then a rise in enrollment again. With the approaching
"grey tsunami," the need for senior services will greatly increase.
However, in roughly 40 years when the Boomer generation is mostly gone the need
for the senior services will be reduced.

Littleton, located near Denver,
has done a good job in making the city an enjoyable place to live. Many
residents want to stay in the city as they age. However, a number of residents
have expressed a desire to downsize their larger houses as they become empty
nesters. The problem is limited housing options within city limits, much less
within the family neighborhoods that they have grown to love. Thus, to
downsize, they would have to move to a new neighborhood or out of the city. The
challenges that Littleton
faces is becoming more widespread among cities.

This lack
of housing appealing to older adults appears to be a major reason for school
enrollment fluctuation. The cycle of young families moving into newly constructed
neighborhoods is reflected in school enrollment increasing. As the families age,
the kids graduate and move out of the house, but the parents cannot downsize,
which keeps the family house under occupied for 10, 20, 30 plus years. Can
schools weather the long cycles of housing turnover to young families?

As a case
example, the graph below shows the fluctuation of Littleton Public Schools
enrollment.1 In the last few years, Littleton did close 2 schools due to falling
enrollment.

The second graph
shows the cycle in average household size, assuming a built-out community where
people do not want to move out as they age. Analogous graphs would be needed for
non-land locked communities still expanding in housing stock and population.

In this
graph, the yellow bars represent time periods in which the city needs to
provide more services and infrastructure for families with kids, such as
schools and kid oriented events. The grey bars represent time periods in which
the city needs to provide additional services for older residents such as
shuttle service to grocery stores.

Some research
indicates that in locations not having enough families in the neighborhood has
some undesired consequences such as bus routes reduced when too high a
percentage of passengers qualify for reduced senior rates and grocery stores
relocate. Fluctuation in needed services is expensive for cities. A more constant
average household size makes providing services easier. The following are
housing considerations to help provide an environment for a more stable average
household size.

Potential Solutions for Existing
Neighborhoods:

Modifying
existing neighborhoods is one of the harder challenges for improving the city's
housing stock. The following ideas are small scale and should allow existing
neighborhoods to evolve over time. For all of these options, there can be too
much of a good thing. The recommendation is to limit the density of each housing
type.

Group housing typically looks
like a single-family residence from the outside and located within single-family
neighborhoods. Inside, each resident has a private bedroom and possibly a
private bathroom. The rest of the house is common space shared by all residents.
A certified nurse or care giver may reside on site or visit regularly. Not
all zoning codes allow group housing, but allowing group housing will
provide more options for older adults.

Accessory dwelling units (ADU)
allows a 2nd unit to be built on a lot with an existing house.
The ADU may house a recent college graduate looking for a job or an
elderly parent. ADUs can also be rented to non-family members. Again, not
all zoning allows ADUs. However, including ADUs in the housing mix can
increase options for families as well as provide additional rental
options.

ADUs can be taken to the next
level by allowing the ADU to be sold independent of the main house. This
can provide additional flexibility for the homeowner. To encourage more
accessible housing, zoning could allow the minimum lot size to be ½ the
current size provided that a "universal design" house built on each
½ lot. This would allow a homeowner in an
existing single-family neighborhood to scrap the house, replace with 2
universal design houses, and potentially live in one of the houses while
selling the other house to pay off the construction loan.

For New/Infill Projects:

For new or
lager infill projects, cities could require variety in the housing sizes to
help achieve a more constant average household size over time. These new projects
present opportunities to make a significant impact on the future direction of
the city.

For a mixed generational
neighborhood, every 3rd or 4th unit should be a
different size. For example, if the development is primarily a family
neighborhood with 3+ bedroom houses, the "other" houses would be
smaller such as patio homes for older adults. The housing mix should
attract singles, couples, families with children, and empty nesters.

For multi-family units, require a mix of 1,
2, and 3+ bedrooms to accommodate all family sizes. All too often,
multi-family is not family-friendly. This needs to change to allow for
more affordable family size housing options. Accessibility is big for
older adults, so ensuring an adequate mix of accessible units is also very
important.

Conclusion:

One of the goals is to support people living and aging in their city.
Thus, aging in neighborhood is balanced by optimizing community resources in
that larger houses are primarily occupied by larger households. When downsizing,
hopefully the person or couple is literally only moving a few feet to a familiar
house, thereby minimizing the stress associated with moving. A new young family
now has the opportunity to move into the city and live in the larger house.

The Human Life Project is insightful in the valuable contribution of the family to build sustainable communities.

Many cities are promoting renewable energy, recycling, green building design, pedestrian-friendly urban spaces, parks, and public transit. While these initiatives currently define sustainable communities, an opportunity exists to discuss the natural and built environment in conjunction with our social relationships.