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Saturday, March 21, 2009

Second Round PIcks for Sunday, March 22

(3) Syracuse (27-9) -1 1/2 (6) Arizona St. (25-9) 12:10 pm - Tough call here, but the Orangemen should prevail over the Sun Devils, if only because Jonny Flynn is so explosive at point guard. Syracuse also benefits from being on the East coast and will likely have forward Kristof Ongenaet back after he missed the opener against Stephen F. Austin. Syracuse will have to limit the scoring by James Harden, Derek Glasser and Jeff Pendergraph, and their 2-3 matchup zone is just the tonic for that. Harden especially likes to drive and distribute or finish, but he'll have lots of Orangemen with him in the lane. Syracuse will advance to the Sweet Sixteen.

(4) Xavier (26-7) -4 (12) Wisconsin (20-12) 2:20 pm - The Badgers needed overtime to knock out Florida State after trailing by a dozen or more. It was a very impressive performance but now Wisconsin faces a Xavier team that seems to be tailor-made for tournament play. The Musketeers, like Wisconsin, don't boast any one superstar, they play more like a team. In many respects, these two teams will go at it hard for 40 minutes. The line had interesting movement on Saturday, going from 2 1/2 to 4, and if you can get 3 or more, you have to take the Badgers and the points, as every indication is pointing to a close game. Xavier advances on a buzzer-beater and doesn't cover.

(3) Kansas (26-7) -7 1/2 (11) Dayton (27-7) 2:30 pm - Dayton is a heck of a lot better team than anyone thought. They can hang with just about anyone in this tournament, except maybe the top 4 to 6 teams. Kansas is not one of those, though they are very good. The Flyers already beat a 6, West Virginia, so they should hold their own against a 3. Are they Regional material? In this region, Midwest, if you were seeded 13 or lower, you have a shot. Dayton wins, covers and moves on, sending the reigning champs home early.

(12) Arizona (20-13) -3 (13) Cleveland St. (26-10) 2:40 pm - Another small conference (Horizon League) team that absolutely shocked everyone by not only beating Wake Forest, but dominating them. The Vikings are going to end up in the final Top 25 almost for sure, especially if they win this game. They beat Syracuse earlier in the year, and just beat Butler and Wake Forest in succession. The Wildcats got by the Utes pretty easily, but remember, Arizona is a team that lost four of their last five regular season games and then were bounced in the first round of the PAC-10 tourney. Like raw fish on a hot day, they can go bad quickly. The Vikings plunder and set sail for the regionals.

(1) Pittsburgh (29-4) -8 (8) Oklahoma St. (23-11) 2:50 pm - Simply put, Oklahoma State doesn't have the bodies to stop DeJuan Blair down low. Pitt also can defend very well. Could be the biggest killing of the day. Pitt wins easily and moves along.

(3) Missouri (29-6) -3 1/2 (6) Marquette (25-9) 4:50 pm - Marquette's journey into tourney-land without Dominic James has a history already, as they were turned out after one game in the Big East and it looks like this may go the same way. The Golden Eagles just barely got past Utah State, and Missouri is a much better team than that. Leo Lyons went for 23 in the opener against Cornell. He may get 30 against Marquette. Missouri looks like one of the better plays of the day. They win by 8 and head to the next round.

(2) Michigan St. (27-6) -4 (10) USC (22-12) 5:00 pm - Just in case nobody noticed, it should be mentioned that USC has won 6 straight, and dominated Boston College in the second half. The Spartans are no slouches themselves, winners of 7 of their last 8, after a ho-hum, 77-62 win over Robert Morris. USC is a much quicker and more athletic team than the Spartans and #2's have to go sometime, so this one looks ripe for a major statement by the Trojans. USC wins by 12. Take them with the points and straight up.

(1) Louisville (29-5) -11 (9) Siena (27-7) 5:20 pm - Too bad a team with as much heart and desire as Siena has to face a monster like Louisville, the #1 seed in the tournament. More than half the people watching this will be rooting for the little team that could, but the Cardinals simply have too much size, depth and a great coach - Rick Pitino - to get beat here. Maybe next year, the Saints could get a higher seed and actually have a chance to win a second game. Siena will be in this for most of the first half, but Louisville will get too many easy buckets and run away late. Take the Cardinals, lay the points. They are a prohibitive favorite on the money line, so don't touch it because strange things always seem to happen when the case is so clear. Kudos to Siena, though, as an 11-point dog, they've gotten respect.