Is it Apples to Apples? Why Are NTTO’s First Half 2015 Arrivals So Strong?

Absent up-do-date figures and after months of suggesting, on the basis of our own sources and anecdotal accounts, that some key overseas sources markets—Brazil, Germany and Australia, in particular—would show that Visit USA numbers would be flat to negative versus 2014, the latest (through June 2015) figures from the U.S. Department of Commerce’s National Travel and Tourism Office (NTTO) showed unexpectedly robust year-to-date increases that challenge the agency’s own earlier full-year forecast for 2015 (See table in first article, “Inbound Report’s Outlook and Analysis for 2016 …”).

What happened? To use NTTO’s own language, “Technical problems are affecting I-94 Program data gathered by DHS/CBP and used by the U.S. Department of Commerce (DOC)/National Travel and Tourism Office (NTTO) to calculate arrivals to the United States in 2015.” As NTTO makes changes in its methodology, it seems that any update or change would increase arrivals figures and projections if only because NTTO has a reputation for being conservative in its forecasts. At least, such an explanation seems plausible when reviewing the numbers below vs. the table in the first article.

First Half 2015 Arrivals

From Top 15 Overseas Markets

Plus Canada and Mexico

Country/Market

First Half Arrivals, 2015

Change vs. 1st Half 2014

1. UK

2,100,826

13.80%

2. JAPAN

1,729,352

2.20%

3. CHINA (EXCL HK)

1,155,590

18.20%

4. BRAZIL

1,108,954

5.30%

5. GERMANY

1,024,557

13.50%

6. SOUTH KOREA

814,596

19.50%

7. FRANCE

796,800

4.30%

8. AUSTRALIA

657,800

10.60%

9. INDIA

585,448

18.70%

10. ITALY

430,403

5.60%

11. COLOMBIA

396,462

1.60%

12. ARGENTINA

357,452

-1.00%

13. SPAIN

325,761

7.50%

14. NETHERLANDS

320,236

12.80%

15. SWEDEN

295,320

8.00%

CANADA

10,311,336

-6.10%

MEXICO

8,412,012

8.30%

TOTAL OVERSEAS

17,304,54

8.70%

TOTAL INTERNATIONAL

36,027,862

3.90%

Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, ITA, National Travel and Tourism Office from the Summary of International Travel to the U.S. (I-94) report.