"He opened the second seal...another horse, fiery red, went out... it was granted to the one who sat on it to take peace from the earth, and that people should kill one another...." (Rev. 6:3)
The “next big thing” in the news may well be war with Iran. Few want it, many warn against it and many more will suffer if it comes to pass. How can we forestall it? (NB: see Post #1 and go from there; see bottom of page.)
"War is the unfolding of miscalculations." (Barbara Tuchman)

Saturday, May 5, 2012

Post #258 - Islands in a Storm

The American Iranian Council (not to be
confused with the National Iranian American Council, which is more
critical of the Islamic Republic), published the following under the
head "What is the message behind the Abu Musa visit?" on
May first:

While the Iranian nuclear file has
resulted in the country coming under increasing pressure from all
sides, Ahmadinejad’s sudden visit to the island of Abu Musa has
sparked speculation and debate surrounding the reasons behind his
decision. One such reason pertains to the weakened position of
Ahmadinejad in shaping Iran’s foreign policy, particularly the
nuclear issue. Ahmadinejad’s visit to Abu Musa (while even during
the time of Shah, no high-level Iranian official had visited the
island) has brought about two major results: one, an outpouring of
nationalism and, second, returning of Ahmadinejad to the spotlight.

The aim of this article is not to
address the complex issue surrounding the sovereignty of Abu Musa
island, rather to assess the motives and consequences of Mr.
Ahmadinejad’s visit to the island (for insight on island politics,
please refer to the book, “Small Islands, Big Politics: The Tonbs
and Abu Musa in the Persian Gulf,” written and edited by Professor
Hooshang Amirahmadi). [Amirahmadi is the head of the AIC, AP]

Ahmadinejad's visit to the island of
Abu Musa in mid-April, created a wave of verbal confrontation between
Iran on the one hand, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and other
Arab countries on the other hand. On April 17, members of the Gulf
Cooperation Council (GCC), comprising [sic] of Saudi Arabia, Qatar,
Kuwait, Bahrain, Oman and the UAE issued a strong statement calling
the visit a provocation and clear violation of the UAE sovereignty.
In addition to harsh exchanges between the two sides that continue to
date, the UAE has officially announced its intention to issue a
complaint to the United Nations.

Iran gained control over the islands of
Abu Musa, the Greater and Lesser Tonbs in 1971, after the withdrawal
of British troops in the region. [Some accounts say that the United
States encouraged the Shah to take this step, AP]. According to
historical documents, during the Shah’s rule, claim over the
ownership of the islands were negotiated and signed between Iran and
the government of Sharjah, bringing the issue of ownership over Abu
Musa to an end. Between the three islands, Abu Musa with 12 square
kilometers is the biggest of the islands. The island has a population
of 2000 and Iran in 1996 inaugurated its airport. Despite their small
size, the islands’ importance is due to their strategic location at
the mouth of the Strait of Hormuz, a water-crossing for one-fifth of
the world’s oil consumption and a third of all oil traffic.

While the Iranian nuclear file has
resulted in the country coming under increasing pressure from all
sides, Ahmadinejad’s sudden visit to the island of Abu Musa has
sparked speculation and debate surrounding the reasons behind his
decision. One such reason pertains to the weakened position of
Ahmadinejad in shaping Iran’s foreign policy, particularly the
nuclear issue. Ahmadinejad’s visit to Abu Musa (while even during
the time of Shah, no high-level Iranian official had visited the
island) has brought about two major results: one, an outpouring of
nationalism and, second, returning of Ahmadinejad to the spotlight.
[paragraph repeated from the top of the piece in the original
posting, AP]

Given the wide spectrum of opinions in
Iranian society, in particular from the urban youth in local internet
sites, who are the main supporters of the opposition movement, and
the Iranian diaspora’s opposition media outlets, one can reach the
conclusion that all segments of Iranian society have shown a unified
front in this matter. The news site, Rooz Online who is staffed by
exiled Iranian journalists made the following statement: “The
interesting point is that some opponents of the Islamic Republic
thanked Ahmadinejad for his trip to Abu Musa and beginning a movement
to defend the territorial integrity of Iran. Epic statements in
defense of Ahmadinejad, the need to preserve the territorial
integrity of Iran, and standing side by side with Ahmadinejad to
defend the homeland, have stirred up a movement on various virtual
pages”.

The fact that Ahmadinejad has
sensationalized the issue of sovereignty over Tunb [sic] and Abu Musa
islands in the Persian Gulf as a national issue, show that other
major Iranian disputes with foreign governments could also garner
support from large segments of the community. By bringing up the
issue of Abu Musa, Ahmadinejad, after a long absense [sic] from the
foreign affairs, has once again been propelled into the spotlight.
But the question is whether he also has the support of Supreme Leader
Ayatollah Ali Khamanei.

In this regard, one can not comment
with full certainty, yet the silence of Ayatollah Khamenei carries
great meaning. First, his silence could be because he disagrees with
Ahmadinejad's move and may not wish to open up a new front against
Arab countries. Second, though he may disagree with Ahmadinejad’s
action, the result has been positive as it has created a unified
stance from a diverse political spectrum against foreign forces and
intevention. This is precisely the kind of delicate political
manuvouring [sic] that Washington should take heed of and include in
its calculations in dealing with Iran.

The West, especially America, plus
Israel and Arabic countries, should learn a great lesson from a
seemingly simple episode that illustrates the importance Iranians
place on their sovereignty and territorial integrity. This is
contrary to the misconception planted in the minds of some American
and Israeli politicians that Iranian people would welcome their
intevention [sic] and revolt against the state. On the contrary, this
episode has shown that Iranians would rally around the flag in the
face of any foreign threat. The threat of military attack on Iran
would unite all Iranians, both opponents and proponents of the
government.

The Trade Environment Database gives this description:

Abu Musa, an island in the Persian Gulf, is claimed by both
Iran and the United Arab Emirates (UAE). The island is valued by
these two countries for economic, security, and environmental
reasons. One significant feature about this island is that it is
potentially full of oil reserves. Currently, oil is being
extracted from a field close to the shores of Abu Musa. The
dispute over the island is unresolved and could ignite an
international crisis at some point in the future. In addition to
the conflict, there are also environmental concerns that are
associated with Abu Musa. If there were to be an oil spill on or
around this island it could have grave consequences on the
environment and the nearby animal life. Therefore, the dispute
over Abu Musa will be examined for its importance in trade,
environmental, and security issues.