Here’s a scenario. You walk into a bar, wearing a Big Johnson shirt with a rip in it and Bermuda shorts even though it’s 45 degrees out. Your hair’s greased down to your head, not because of any fashion purpose. You just haven’t showered in days. When you get to the bar, this hot girl is standing there with two shots of Rumplemintz. She hands you one, clinks your glass and you down them. You guys go home together and your mother doesn’t once interrupt you by barging into your basement apartment. The next morning you wake up, wipe crusties out of your eyes and realize it wasn’t a hot girl but a girl that looks like Fred Armisen in a wig and she’s calling you, “Poopsie.” That hot girl that turned into Fred Armisen in a wig is Carlos Gonzalez.

Owning Carlos Gonzalez last year was crazy non-committal sex with the hot girl while she bought you drinks. You didn’t have to do anything special. Just lay there. Or, more specifically, just draft him late and watch him put up huge numbers. Only you should realize nothing is that perfect. As I said in the top 20 for 2011 fantasy baseball, “He swung at 37% of pitches outside the strike zone, the league average is 29.3%. He hacked at 52.2% of total pitches, league average is 45.6%. He took nearly no walks. With a .384 BABIP, everything dropped in for him.” And that’s me quoting me! If CarGo hacks again and balls don’t drop in, you’re going to have a slump on your hands. In 287 ABs away from Coors, he only had 8 homers. So to get to his huge season, he had to hit 26 homers in only 300 ABs at Coors. That’s 11.5 at-bats per homer. Babe Ruth has the 2nd best career number at 11.76. So, yeah, CarGo’s rate was pretty absurd. It was the 2nd most home homers in the majors last year behind only the insane Jose Bautista season. It was six more home homers than Adam Dunn, a guy who hits 38 to 40 homers every year. If a guy hits no homers away from home, it’s highly unlikely they can be successful every year. Finally, to take me completely out of the picture, Bill James gives David Wright the projections of 99/27/104/.295/20. He gives CarGo the projections of 101/28/101/.308/22. That’s basically the same thing. I hate to have to bring out the exclamation marks, but David Wright is a third baseman and he’s being drafted after CarGo! Seriously, dubya tee eff? Even if you think CarGo will be great again, which I have serious doubts about, people need to ease up on the throttle.

@Grey: CarGo is the new kid. Wright plays in MetCo and sucked when he first moved in there. Sometimes it’s difficult to get your brain to make the right decision. I would have a difficult time to push the Wright button when CarGo is sitting there, but your post makes it clear that Wright is the smart pick between those two.

BTW, I’m really loving your rankings this year. I can’t wait for the drafts to get started.

Couldn’t agree more on Cargo. Sure, he’s a nice young player with upside, but the only way you can get value out of drafting him is if he has another career year. Drafting and hoping for career years is not a good way to win championships.

The trouble with the OF this year is that the guys you could count on drafting in Rounds 1 to 3 previously are no where to be found. I will sight, Beltran, Bay, Carlos Lee, Sizemore, and I’ll even include Grandy. There are probably others that just don’t come to mind.

Comparing Bill James projections didn’t really hold any substance for me because I’m not sure that guy even watches baseball. I think bill james is the one who’s busy making crazy love to Chris Davis in his mothers basement and calling him “poopsie”.

Anyway, there is one thing i’d like to point out, and it just so happens that CarGo is a good example of this. I personally do not totally believe in BABIP as a sound analysis of a hitters luck, and what to expect in the future. At least not the way most people use it. I feel that each indidual hitter’s skills determine what their average BABIP is. Certain players hit line drives more often and are fast. Those players usually have higher BABIPs. Slower, fly ball hitters may be lower BABIPs. I think the “league average” BABIP of .300 can be used to accurately analyze pitchers because they face a combination of all different types of hitters. For a particular hitter though, i think their BABIP needs to be compared to their career average rather than the “league average”.

CarGo for example, sported a .384 BABIP last season which was by all means very high. However, when you look closer, you will see that over the past 6 years, from A+ ball up until last year his career average BABIP is .355. There was still a big difference and quite a bit of luck, but his 2010 was not as crazyyyy lucky as many people think his season was.

I think CarGo is a legitimate .300 hitter, and according to your projections so do you. Glad we agree.

BTW, this post isn’t being made to argue with u at all, i was just making a point and I thought Cargo was a decent person to talk about. Just wondering if you agreed with my thinking..

I think you’re right about Cargo this year, but I hear that GM’s drool over him via Peter Gammons and scouts keep saying he’s going to be a top ten player for years to come. At 24, what’s his long-term upside? In your estimation, was 2010 as good as he can get? Maybe a correction this year and then a steady progression to a .300/30/100/100/30 guy in a couple of years? Am I smoking crack laced with meth?

In a weird keeper I’m in, I can only hold onto two of these guys and only for the next season… can you help a brother out with who to kick to the curb?

When do you think you’ll have your top 300 post up? I’m currently in a loooooong draft in a 16 Team H2H keeper, and I probably won’t have another pick for 3-4 days at best. I’m getting nauseous just thinking that I’ll have to continue using CBS’s top 300 list and not yours. If you make it snappy, I’m sure there will be mountains of daiquiris in your future. Not that I’m trying to pressure you, but it will save you the time of having to answer my questions of who to draft between a few players, much like you did yesterday, thank you very much. Elvis is mine…all mine!!! Bwahahahaha. Not a bad start after my 5 keepers and first pick: Wright, Hamilton, Heyward, Dunn, Lester, Andrus.

@joe from point pleasant: @Grey: Exactly. You guys are both right. BABIP can be influenced by a player’s speed and skill, both with the bat and with pitch selection. It’s clear that Cargo has bat skills, but his lack of plate discipline (terrible walk rate and swing rate) means that he can’t have a .384 BABIP that isn’t aided by a tremendous amount of luck.

Grey,
Any chance CarGo is just a freak? Few players can get away with the poor discipline that CarGo showed last year, but Alfonso Soriano comes to mind. He was consistently posting 5-6% walk rates and similar swing rates too, but still put up ridic. fantasy numbers for 4-5 straight years.

Everything you said about last year was correct, but what if he actually develops something remotely resembling better plate discipline this year under new hitting coach Carney Lansford? Not saying he will, but at 24, it would seem like there’s a decent chance he could improve in that regard. It’s been known to happen to hitters before.

Besides that, he’s still going to play 81 games at Coors Field. Those “luck” hits that inflated his BABIP are always going to be there. So to assume that average is somehow going to even out is very risky, especially when the outfielders are forced to play back and cutoff those huge gaps due to his speed. He’s going to rack up those bloop singles again.

I’m not really arguing against the overrated tag. I guess I’m just saying be careful not to go too far with that idea. I wouldn’t just assume he’s going to crash back to earth or not improve on the road.

@Ian: His home/road splits are pretty hideous, Soriano from my recollection never had that, but swinging and not walking has been done with success before. Doesn’t make things easier and in the first round you want easy.

@Grey: True about ESPN but over half of the managers will be using their rankings so I can’t ignore it. Since it’s an auction keeper league and you don’t have much love for Ethier, why wouldn’t Latos plus an extra $9 to spend a little more for some power be a good option? If Latos goes off this year, that $1 price tag will be gold next season. Also, couldn’t I get Ethier back for $15-$18 anyway?

Needless to say, I’m curious to read your take on Latos’ innings bump and rocky end to the season.

Agree with grey hey kid. Pepole should know better than to trust any single fantasy opinion, even one a’s awesome as razzball. You gotta assimilate as many opinions, numbers, rankings, etc and make your own decisions. “Stalking Grey” for every single pick in your slow draft seems really really weak. I think it’s pretty amazing the number of personal responses Grey gives. Let’s not abuse that.

@ Grey: I’m in a 10 team mixed auction league with 2 keepers from the previous year. The cap is 500 and I got Votto for 50 that I’m keeping and I can keep CarGo for 32 I think. I’m thinkin that’s a lot of value for me . What are your thoughts?

@Captain Obvious: hey bro – all im saying is people seem to be relying on his opinion for every single move rather than using judgement calls on some of their moves. Theres a difference between utilizing a resource, and relying so heavily on it you are paralyzed without it.

I’m assuming this is directed at me. I’m kind of wondering, as other people have already stated, what the hell do you expect from a fantasy advice site? Generally, most people here ask questions because fantasy baseball knowledge isn’t their job, and we do not know nearly the plethora of stats that Grey does.

Usually in most cases, where people look to him for advice, we have a few options and want his input on the best one, or we have a choice made, and just want to know what he thinks about it (similar to me posting the few best available guys in my draft – according to me, because I can think for myself – and asking who would be the best option for my team). That’s what a fantasy baseball advice site is for. Have I made every move he has told me to? Hell no. Have I made most of them? Hell yes. And he’s helped me out much more than he’s hurt me. So why not look to him for advice? Makes sense to me.

And I’m pretty sure that most people here, myself included, make TONS of moves without his advice. But when we get stuck, why not look to someone that may know a little more than you? I’m pretty sure that most of you out there will also ask a friend that isn’t in your league about a questionable move, as well, when you just aren’t sure. I know I have, and I know a lot of my friends will ask me for advice, too.

Part of the thing that was great about this site last year is that people didn’t come in here and mouth off to people, especially unwarranted. So thanks for starting 2011 off with a bang.

Again, directed at me. For one, that is a joke. And anyone that has been on this site for awhile knows that things like that are said. I don’t think most people on here abuse Grey, which is why we also donate to the site. This isn’t the only site on the internet that most of us go to, but it is one of the best (if not THE best) due to him and his responses that he’s so damn quick on.

This is not my first rodeo, and I tried to get on here and help as many people as I could last season. I also posted the updated lineups for people during the playoffs, so people could know quickly who was in and who wasn’t, just in case they needed to make a last second change to try to win a league.

If you’re on here enough, you’ll notice this. People all over this place help each other, and tend to not belittle others for asking Grey’s advice.

I’m also asking for advice mid January because I’m already in a draft for 2011. I’m in a 16 Team H2H keeper league that just started it’s draft on the 17th. We draft on a blog that the Commish set up, then he puts all the picks in Yahoo when he’s able to get the league up. We have 12 hours to make our pick and the draft lasts about a month.

And it was your reference to “dood” which was in my post that lead me to believe it was my post that you so eloquently referred to.

Why are you so upset at people asking his advice? It’s not like it’s hurting you in any way. I’m damn sure some of the questions asked by commenters have been some YOU have wondered at one point or another.

Regardless, like Wilsonian mentioned, one of the many appeals of this site is the absence of douches.

I know, I know, I probably did get a little mad. But I did want to make my point as to one of the reasons that this site is great (besides Grey’s help, of course) is that people here are generally polite and helpful towards each other. I’m done with my ranting now, on to more important things like “how many HRs Bautista will actually hit this season” or “will F-Her win another CY with only 3 wins”?

It basically is, I just thought it was directed at me because I was the last post before his (not including Grey’s in between ours) and I specifically said “thanks dood” as did he in his mockery of people posting questions to Grey. Maybe a little presumptious on my part, but justifiably so. (See posts #s 33 and 36. respectively)

I was thinking about Coco Crisp today (naturally). Does he still have a starting job? Dude was pretty money for half of ’10. I also like how when he’s dinged up he goes on the DL and you can sit him, unlike Braun who doesn’t say when he’s hurt, plays though the pain, and then slumps. Jerk.

Be like Grey (:D) and ignore the nimrods. The guys who come in here (time and time again) and complain about people bowing down to Grey are usually the guys who don’t recognize the real reason we are here (solid advice+creativity+humor+hella_fast_and_good_responses). Usually, in fact, the gripers are just dooods with their own redundant blogs, mad that people flock to the mustache instead of their weak sauce.

@Cole: the weird thing about crisp last year was he ran at a much higher rate than he has in most of his past years. he played half a season as a beat-up 30-year-old and got a career-high 32 bags, only got caught 3 times. when he was 25 and getting 650 PA in cleveland he stole 15, caught 6. since when do guys get old, go to oakland and -then- go crazy stealing bases? that billy beane always has to prove he’s smarter than everybody else.

so yeah, i like crisp a lot for where he’s going in drafts but he’s solidly on the “completely unpredictable” list for like seven different reasons.

My only other option I think is J Upton for about the same price as CarGo. In this league guys like Braun are going for 80 or so. I agree that things went right for CarGo last year but he also plays half of his games in Coors.

@Swagger Jackers: Why didn’t you draft Liriano!? Oh, I see why. Did your computer lock up when you drafted Eric Byrnes too? I don’t know how many teams are in this league, but your hitting looks pretty bad. Probably because you took Oswalt, Lewis and Hudson back to back to back.

Cargo……..i’m in a keeper league, I posted the team in the forums and the one thing I am short on is power/ 1B , should I consider trade offers for Ryan Howard ( CBS are ranking him at #55) or Prince Fielder , I have had an abundunce of the usual schmohawk trades for Cargo but given I have good outfield depth with Pence , Stanton ,Krispie and Rasmus , i’m wondering if a trade is a go in your opinion.

Good ole CarGo…you helped win me a title…but no love for you this year, I’ll stick with Holliday thank you… (My 4 OF group of CarGo, Holliday, Cruz, and Krispie, with Byrd and Scott on the Bench/Utility was just awesome tho). Im wondering what to do at OF in my friends league this time…seems impossible to replicate last years group, and in a 10 team 4 OF league there’s always good OF’s on waivers. I do know I’d prefer to have at least 1 guy from that 2nd tier of doodes. After that it gets pretty grim.

Yah possibly. I still think I want to focus on my corners early… 1st base and 3rd base ideally will be my 1st two round picks. Gotta see what happens tho and what pick I end up drawing. 3rd-5th round tho looks to have some good values in the OF.

I see your last comment here was shortly after the mock draft ended. The mock draft you didn’t show up to. Please, if you’re not going to show up, or think you’ll forget, back out and let someone else join. @GopherDay:

@RandomItalicizedVoice: I like your hitting but I think it’s at the expense of your pitching. Not a big fan of Hughes and Danks is a tough number two. It’s kinda like you have one number one and a couple of question marks.

Cargo will be a top 5 player again this year…..I think players BABIP is slightly overrated if you watch the way he takes the ball the other way like few other players can do…..To call him is schmohawk is utterly ridiculous, you will eat your words this year…I’ll take him over David Wright anyday….Him and Longoria is closer, but I think I’ll still takes escargo.

Yeah, I managed to totally butcher the English but you got the jist…1st and 3rd first two rounds seems ideal to me. Watched ‘Black Swan’ after you blurbed it…its very well done in its way but I kinda don’t get it…what is the current fascination with B movies/horror movies among successful directors… It’s well and good to give a nod to the format, but why go and purposely imitate one when you don’t have to. One can state “Touch of Evil” or any similar candidate is the “best B movie ever”, and thats a compliment in its own way, but who purposely would go and make a B movie when you have the option not to… The point is Wells or any other director in question was making due: not making what they wanted to do. Does that make any sense?!

I like Wright or Longoria more myself if only due to the wasteland at 3b. The other problem with CarGo is even if by some chance he could repeat you still would only be breaking even. There’s not really any upside?

@Elijah if he repeats and you draft him at #7 yeah I’d say thats a great pick…..Does Albert Pujols have no upside because he hits 315, 37 HRS and drives in 135 that makes no sense bra….yeah you just got bra’d bra