Unsettled Weather Comes to an End

Bermuda Weather Service radar imagery showing strong thunderstorms to the Northeast through South of Bermuda at 6:43pm local time September 17th 2013. Much of this activity missed Bermuda today.

After much of the week following Tropical Storm Gabrielle was plagued by unsettled weather, including some vivid thunderstorms, Bermuda’s weather is expected to become much more settled, at least for a couple days as post-frontal high pressure tries to build in. Some showers and thunderstorms are still possible in association with today’s frontal system later this evening or tonight. However, overall a less humid airmass under the control of high pressure should begin to take over tonight. Interestingly, although some very strong thunderstorm activity was observed nearby on both radar and satellite imagery, much of it stayed offshore.

After this period of settled weather, Bermuda should return a wary eye to the tropics as the front stalls to the south of the island. The front may break up allowing a tropical cyclone to form from its remnants, or the weakness in the Bermuda-Azores high created by the front could help steer tropical cyclones towards Bermuda.

Currently, Hurricane Ingrid has dissipated over the mountains of Mexico after making landfall there as a tropical storm. Heavy rains continue there likely leading to further flooding and mudslides. Tropical Storm Humberto has regenerated in the far Central Atlantic, but has turned back to the north and is headed out to sea. Finally, a tropical wave interacting with the Central American monsoon circulation is being monitored by the National Hurricane Center for tropical development. Although it is now moving ashore in the Yucatan Peninsula, it has been given a medium, 40% chance for development in the next 48 hours as of 3pm Bermuda time, and a high 60% chance for development in the next 5 days. This system is expected to move into the Bay of Campeche or the Southern Gulf of Mexico where its future track and development then becomes very uncertain – although it is not an immediate threat to Bermuda, it should be monitored. Follow the latest official forecasts for Bermuda at the Bermuda Weather Service, and tropical cyclone products at the National Hurricane Center.