In early September,
German Chancellor Angela Merkel issued an order to bring thousands of
refugees who were stranded in Hungary to Germany. Germany's basic
right to asylum has no upper limits, she said.

It was a moment of
unaccustomed conviction from a chancellor who had become notorious
for her ability to avoid making decisions until the last possible
moment. But she went even further. She equated the refugee issue with
other significant turning points in the history of her party, the
center-right Christian Democrats (CDU). Issues such as West Germany's
integration into Western alliances and Kohl's commitment to keeping
nuclear weapons stationed in West Germany in the 1980s. It was as
though she were elevating her refugee policy into the pantheon of
Christian Democratic basic principles.

And she didn't even
bother to inform the CDU's Bavarian sister party, the Christian
Social Union (CSU), before doing so.

Now, though, Merkel
is in the process of preparing a reversal of her refugee policy. At
the G-20 summit in Antalya, Turkey at the beginning of the week, she
spoke of quotas -- fixed numbers of refugees that Europe is willing
to accept. On the one hand, of course, introduction the idea of
quotas is a concession to reality, because the chancellor knows that
the ongoing arrival to Germany of up to 10,000 refugees every day is
not sustainable.

But the change is
also a silent capitulation to her critics. Horst Seehofer, the head
of the CSU, and Interior Minister Thomas de Maizière are now setting
the tone in Germany's refugee policy, and the Paris terrorist attacks
have only given them more leverage. Seehofer and de Maizière have
been calling for an upper limit on immigration for months. "Quota"
is simply a different word for the same thing.

Merkel is in a tight
spot. She made the right decision by accepting the desperate refugees
who set out from Budapest for Germany on foot in early September. But
in the period that followed, the dimensions of the inflow kept
growing and Merkel never conveyed the message that Germany's capacity
is limited. Even the coming winter has not stopped the flow of
refugees, and leading conservatives are now more openly questioning
the efficacy and wisdom of Merkel's plan to limit immigration by
combating the underlying causes of migration. For many, the notion of
Germany serving as an intermediary and arbiter of global crises
borders on megalomania.

Even though she is
still publicly sticking to her rhetoric, Merkel has been on the
retreat for about two weeks. Leading CDU parliamentarians received
the first signs of her change of heart in early November, when they
met with her at the Chancellery. In the meeting, the chancellor
clearly promised that she would support a reduction in refugee
numbers, says one of the attendees. "I cannot guarantee that you
will already see a change in the coming weeks," the attendee
said, quoting Merkel. But she also said that the current situation
could not continue as it was.

Conservative
politicians received written confirmation of the promise in the form
of a position paper on the government's refugee policy, which Merkel
and CSU leader Seehofer drafted jointly. Although the document did
not include the word "limit," which many in the party would
have liked to see, the concept of "reduction" was
mentioned. Merkel also conceded that the flow of refugees needed to
be regulated through the use of quotas.

Sealing Off Outside
Borders

The idea originally
comes from Interior Minister de Maizière, who introduced it in
SPIEGEL in mid-September. "This would ensure that we in Europe
accept only as many refugees as we can handle in the long term,"
he said. The Chancellery reacted with reserve at the time, because it
appeared that the minister was contradicting Merkel's assertion that
Germany's right to asylum had no upper limits.

Government spokesman
Steffen Seibert pointedly did not embrace the idea, but stated:
"There will be no change to German asylum law." Vice
Chancellor Sigmar Gabriel, head of Merkel's coalition partner, the
Social Democratic Party, even declared de Maizière's proposal to be
unconstitutional. "Establishing quotas for asylum seekers is not
a solution. It also contradicts the German constitution," he
said.

Now it isn't just
Merkel who is talking about quotas, but Gabriel, as well. On Monday
Gabriel promised "something like a new beginning in refugee
policy" -- by way of quotas. Officials at the Interior Ministry
noted with satisfaction that Merkel had fallen in line with the
minister. "It is good to hear that the proposal is under
consideration," says Parliamentary State Secretary Ole Schröder.
"If this were implemented, it would be a trend reversal."
The CSU is also rejoicing. "Europe-wide refugee quotas have been
one of our demands for some time," says General Secretary
Andreas Scheuer. "We are pleased that the chancellor is actively
pursuing the issue."

For Merkel, the
model is still the best way to save face because it allows her to
claim that German asylum law was not compromised. On the other hand,
she is drawing closer to her critics' demands to finally impose a
limit on immigration.

The Chancellery's
plan calls for the EU would accept a generous number of refugees who
are currently in Turkey -- in the range of 300,000 to 500,000 people
a year. In return, Turkey would have to pledge to stop allowing
refugees there -- those who are not part of the ocntigent -- to head
for Europe. According to the German Interior Ministry, the EU would
intercept refugee boats in the Aegean Sea and return the migrants
back to Turkey. If a refugee did manage to reach Germany despite the
precaution, he or she could apply for asylum. But the quota solution
only makes sense if Europe's external borders so tightly controlled
that hardly anyone can get through. Article 16a of the German
constitution would essentially be suspended.

In return, the
borders within Europe could remain open. This is important to Merkel.
She has said repeatedly that she is determined to save the Schengen
system of border-free travel within the EU. The price would be to
largely seal off the EU external border. The unpleasant scenes Merkel
is determined to avoid at the German border would then unfold on the
very fringes of Europe instead.

Tense Meetings

For Merkel, the
refugee crisis has become an issue of authority. She was long able to
ignore grumbling within her party, but now others are taking the
wheel, and Merkel has been put in a position of reacting rather than
determining the way forward herself. The turning point was the
proposal by Interior Minister de Maizière, who proposed stricter
checks for Syrian refugees and limits on family unification.

Chancellery Chief of
Staff Peter Altmaier forced the interior minister to scrap his idea.
But on the same weekend, Finance Minister Wolfgang Schäuble voiced
his support for de Maizière and it became clear to Merkel that her
interior minister had strong allies.

De Maizière was
long a loyal servant to the chancellor, but he is now no longer
willing to support a policy he believes is wrong. He felt slighted
when Merkel deprived him of his power and appointed Chancellery head
Altmaier to the position of refugee coordinator. Even though de
Maizière sees himself as a public servant, he was offended by his
portrayal as a Chancellery underling, which led him to take a more
self-confident, less conflict-averse approach.

The result, though,
was an argument in last week's cabinet meeting. As a rule, the only
subjects discussed at these meetings are those on which agreement has
already been reached. But when the discussion turned to an EU
guideline that de Maizière intended to only partly implement, a
fierce debate ensued. Family Minister Manuela Schwesig (SPD) said
that it was unacceptable for the interior minister to only focus on
the planned reception centers while declining to implement important
rules for the protection of underage or traumatized refugees. The
argument lasted so long that the chancellor intervened. "Is this
really an issue that needs to be discussed in this setting?"
Merkel said with a sigh.

It is normally
Altmaier's job to avoid such embarrassing friction. Once again,
however, de Maizière triggered a spat by going it alone. The
interior minister is determined to obstruct new rules that make it
easier for refugees to reach Germany.

Merkel is torn. On
the one hand, she doesn't want to seem like she is being openly
undermined. To conceal her loss of power, she is sticking to her guns
-- at least verbally. "I want us to show a friendly face,"
she said in an interview with German public broadcaster ZDF on
Friday. On the other hand, she knows that she can no longer placate
her critics by arguing that she is doing everything possible to
tackle the causes of the refugee crisis. The CDU doesn't want to wait
until the war in Syria is over to see results.

The concept of
refugee quotas buys her some time. On Friday, she is in Munich for a
CSU gathering, where she is presenting the idea as an additional
concession. For weeks, Seehofer has been one of the most vocal
critics of Merkel's refugee policy. He sees it as a threat to the
CSU's goal of securing an absolute majority in the next Bavarian
elections. This will be impossible, Seehofer argues internally, if
the party abandons its core competency: domestic security.

European Values at
Stake

Seehofer doesn't
want to overthrow Merkel, nor does the CDU. There is no alternative
to the chancellor at the moment. Defense Minister Ursula von der
Leyen is loyal to Merkel when it comes to the refugee issue.
Schäuble, of course, is not: He recently compared the chancellor to
a clumsy skier who triggers an avalanche. But he'll be turning 75
just in time for the next parliamentary election, though, and no one
since Konrad Adenauer has dared to run for the chancellorship at such
an advanced age.

Seehofer and large
portions of the CDU simply want Merkel to change her policy. Many
feel that she has become oddly disconnected from reality. When a
senior CDU politician spoke with her recently, she told him about a
conversation she had had with Munich Archbishop Reinhard Marx, who
had expressly encouraged her to stick to her welcoming refugee
policy. Her commitment was in keeping with the will of God, the
archbishop explained. "Perhaps the good cardinal would like to
put up posters for us in the next election campaign?" the CDU
politician said afterwards.

But Merkel has not
lost touch with reality. She knows how precarious the situation has
become for her. There will be a reckoning next spring, when state
parliamentary elections are scheduled for Rhineland-Palatinate,
Baden-Württemberg and Saxony-Anhalt. Merkel may even go down in
history as the chancellor who ensured that the right-wing populist
party Alternative for Germany became a permanent fixture in the
German political landscape.

Nothing has yet been
decided. The idea of creating refugee quotas makes sense because it
reduces the influx of refugees to a politically tolerable level
without sealing off Europe. It is unclear, however, whether Merkel
will be able to put her proposal into practice. The Turks have an
interest in unloading as many refugees as possible. In the EU,
however, few countries other than Germany are willing to accept
refugees, as evidenced by the sluggish distribution in the last few
months of the 160,000 refugees the EU had agreed to share.

And now, after the
Paris attacks, the reluctance has grown even further. The new
conservative, right-wing Polish government has already announced that
it will not accept any more refugees from other EU countries while
the British feel that the refugees are a problem for continental
Europeans.

There is much at
stake for Merkel. If the quota idea fails, she could be forced to do
something she has always ruled out: to close the German borders and
turn away refugees. It would be a huge defeat for the chancellor.