"Sometimes enthusiasts imagine an army can advance at the speed of a fast
armoured personnel carrier on the road. The reality is that any military
formation travels at the speed of its slowest component if it wants to
remain a fighting unit.
It is no use arriving early if you are on your own, out of fuel, out of
ammunition and out of ideas. The arithmetic of logistic support over
extended distances is sobering, and militates against the short war. Even
President Bush seems to be realising that now. "
· Sir Timothy Garden in the Guardian.
I cut the above out from an article in the Guardian. The author is some war
monger with a pedigree. However he does make an interesting point. the
actual logistics of the war may take longer than people were led to
believe. Moreover even when Bhagdad does fall, there will very likely be
two civil wars raging - one between the Kurds and the Turkish soldiers sent
South and another between the Sunnis and the Shi'ites entering from Iran.
Presumably the Americans will secure Bhagdad and the oil fields and let
the rest of the country go to hell. It is the policy they have carried out
in Afghanistan and it works sufficiently there for the Pentagon to give it
a go in Iraq.
regards
Gary
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