The
provocation template of exercising foreign policy using proxy service
providers to seed international dysfunction is only an open secret.
It is not a state secret. America's current best friend, the
absolutist kingdom of Saudi Arabia, just like America's former best
friend, the absolutist dictator Iraqi Saddaam Hussein, is about to
taste the fruit of supping with the devil without a very long spoon.
As Henry Kissinger is known to have once quipped: “it may be
dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is
fatal.”

Nawaz
Sharif, the incumbent prime minister of Pakistan, owes his life to
the kingdom of Saudi Arabia. A lesson that he learnt in a hurry after
having witnessed the fate of the former prime minister who has hanged
by the predecessor military dictator of Pakistan, and saw history
repeating itself without the Saudi intervention offering him refuge.
The prime minister of Pakistan can only repay his personal debt in
national blood.

What
is also not inexplicable is the Pakistan Army COAS quickly rushing to
dignify the Saudi regime's brutality under the most banal propaganda
rubric that would easily resonate with the public mind --- threat to
holy Saudi Arabia! Their marching orders, one may intelligently
surmise, must have come directly from Washington. Because, like all
militaries of the world prepared for proxy services, Pakistan's too
takes its policy and priority cues from her own principal paymasters.
As cliché as it may be, there is still no free lunch!

To
those who think all is well in Pakistan, that our Generals and rulers
have made things better at the homefront wrt terror and there is
nothing major going on wrt the latest Shia-Sunni conflagration being
set-up globally, read for yourself the latest headlines in Pakistan's
largest English news daily, Dawn, reproduced below. Pakistan is being
set-up to be in the very eye of the storm. Being an ostrich must be a
great blessing for my Pakistani friends, busy as each one of us is in
the pursuit of our “American Dream” regardless of where
we live. I was informed most reliably yesterday for instance by my
friend in Lahore that our General COAS, the top man in charge of the
country's defense, and the most honest man in Pakistan, has things
under full control.

This
morning's News headlines inform us otherwise. All kinds of propaganda
craft is being brought to bear to add fuel to the making of these new
killing fields just as it was during the Iran-Iraq war in the 1980s
where brother killed brother, 8 million, an order of magnitude more
than the fratricide in the American Civil War. See this excerpt
from an ancient political treatise (presented as historical fiction)
if you think the cracks and lacunas among Shia and Sunni don't exist,
or are not known to the arsonists who will come galloping as the fire
brigade next, just as they are today the 'harawal dasta', the Marines
if you will, fueling and then prognosticating the fire in preparation
for the main Army's arrival.

These
historical fissures among Muslims which are perennially ripe for
blood-harvest by those who are neither Shia nor Sunni, have to be
closed off. And closed off fundamentally, not just with Band-Aids
that peel off with the tiniest of scratching. Historical fault-lines
by themselves need be of no more significance or consequence than as
a scholarly footnote to the source of rich diversity among a latter
day people, variegated as we all are in myriad cultures and
civilizations. It is only when the footnote falls into the hands of
Machiavelli and becomes enlarged as the entire book, that fratricidal
blood flows in the streets and among nations. History vouches for the
veracity of that truth. See Averting
Shia-Sunni World War.

Please
dare to care.... take a stand.

Pakistanis
must not become sentimentalized by our religion, which we tend to
mostly wear on our sleeves only, to take sides on the narratives
being brought to us, but rather galvanized by perceptively
understanding who are the victims and who are the victimizers. We
must stand up for the victims. That is us. For it is the victims, us,
who are made the canon fodder in the geopolitical games of the elite.
I will not be that canon fodder. Neither should you. Take that stand.
Reject the entire fictional narrative; it is being orchestrated by
hard acts of state terror to create a cycle of reactionary violence
at the international level designed to percolate down to our own
streets and neighbourhoods

You
can imagine the killing of the Saudi Shia dissent scholar Sheikh Nimr
by the Saudi kingdom to be virtually equivalent to the killing of
Franz Ferdinand, Archduke of Austria-Este, whose calculated
assassination in Sarajevo on 28 June 1914 precipitated
Austria-Hungary's declaration of war against Serbia leading to World
War I. That world war led to 50 million dead and all existent empires
replaced by the rising Pax Americana. That Pax Americana is to be
replaced by World Government through these upcoming manufactured
world wars. That's the general blueprint. 9/11 was its first
provocation for the final push to global transformation. Shia-Sunni
conflagration is to be the next in the long series of incrementally
creating world order out of chaos.

The
template of Machiavellian provocation to diabolically induce the
anticipated chain reaction is ubiquitous in Pax Americana history.
The ex post facto “oops” narrative of April Glaspie, the
US Ambassador to Iraq before Iraq's invasion of Kuwait in 1990, to
newspaper reporters before her sudden and unexplained demise
demonstrates how dysfunction in international relations is fabricated
and used as pretext for launching premeditated imperial foreign
policy: “Obviously, I didn't think, and nobody else did,
that the Iraqis were going to take all of Kuwait.” Saddaam
Hussein was given the green light to invade Kuwait in the aftermath
of the eight year Iran-Iraq war after Kuwait (as one may sensibly
surmise) was goaded into extracting more oil from a heavily contested
oil rich region between Iraq and Kuwait. With Iraq increasing its
troop concentrations on the border, April Glaspie reported Saddaam
Hussein's candid request for the American position to the State
Department, and she was told to report back to Saddaam Hussein: “We
have no opinion on your Arab - Arab conflicts, such as your dispute
with Kuwait.” (See April Glaspie's transcript of meeting
with Saddaam Hussein, July
25, 1990 - Presidential Palace – Baghdad)

Once
the highly predictable and easily manipulatable Iraqi dictator took
the military step of invading Kuwait a week later after the sly
blank-check had been given to him by the superpower, just as he had
been given in invading Iran a decade earlier under the full military
and economic support of the United States, this time the United
States made Muslim Iraq public enemy number one and bombed that
nation back to pre-history with a full scale military invasion.
George Bush Sr., the president of the United States at the time,
after his overt laissez faire diplomatic green lighting Saddaam
Hussein's adventurism, suddenly drew a line in the sand. In his
address to the American nation on the eve of America's new “just
war”, he piously dignified American terror: “This is
an historic moment. We have in this past year made great progress in
ending a long era of conflict and Cold War. We have before us the
opportunity to forge for ourselves and for future generations, a NEW
WORLD ORDER. A world for the rule of law, not the law of the jungle,
governs the conduct of nations. When we are successful, and we will
be, we have a real chance at this new world order. An order in which
a credible United Nations can use its peace keeping role to fulfill
the promise and vision of the UN's founders.” (George H. W.
Bush Sr., January 16, 1991, watch-speech,
transcript)

That
engineered “just war” which began with aerial bombing in
a reign of nightly terror by the Christian superpower, was followed
by thirteen long years of crippling full spectrum economic sanctions
and no-fly zones maintained by his successor president, William
Jefferson Clinton. And that was followed by another full scale
military invasion and nightly aerial bombing terror in 2003 by the
prodigal son following in his father's footsteps, George W. Bush Jr.,
in the pretext of Iraq possessing WMDs that Saddaam Hussein was about
to launch upon the United States and its Allies any minute. In 2005,
like April Glaspie in the previous decade, the Iraq Study Group
offered its ex post facto mea culpa of “intelligence
failure”, a well worn template with much mileage evidently
still left in it, after the fait accompli had been diabolically
engineered and the “mission accomplished”. Cheap
public blood, especially Muslim blood, repeatedly shed by game-theory
laced highly predictable and manufactured “happenstances”
of history that lead to the desired foreign policy outcome in a sea
of fabricated chaos! We know what that desired ultimate outcome is:
New World Order that “fulfills the promise and vision of the
UN's founders.” The bibliography on this subject is
extensive and rich, but the scholarly ostriches of Pakistan, like the
rest of the world, find it both convenient to their careers and
lucrative to their pocket-books to pretend that it does not exist.

Sheikh
Nimr's grotesque execution by barbaric beheading at the hands of his
own state, her on-going military invasion and bombing of impoverished
mostly Shia Yemen (Zaidi denomination) using mercenary armies, her
purchasing a coalition of 34 nations along the Sunni axis, are all
calculated provocations to get Shia Iran (Ithna Ashari denomination)
to declare war on Sunni Saudi Arabia (Wahabi-Salafi denomination) for
her global oppression of the Shias using her American sponsored
Takfiri brigades (see Understanding
ISIS
and Imperial
Surrogates and 'Terror Central' in Operation Gladio Redux).
How long can the Iranian leadership, boldly proclaiming to be the
valih-e-faqih-muslimeen, hold out from intervention without losing
legitimacy to that title in the mind of the taqlidi Shia flock
worldwide? Once forced to sit on the Russian roulette table, there
can be no winners. So far, it appears that Iran under valih-e-faqih
Ayatollah Khamenei, has pragmatically understood the
devil that she has been supping with for her recently concluded
JCPOA treaty to unilaterally disarm herself of all potential nuclear
weapons technology in exchange for international relief from the long
running economic sanctions. The revolutionary state has sagaciously
resisted her national instinct to rush headlong into any holy war
set up for it, as it did during the reign of the first valih-e-faqih
of Iran, the late Ayatollah (imam) Khomeini, who identified America
as the Great Satan and
watered her cemeteries with the youthful blood of a generation in the
name of Sacred Defence.

In
that same vein of engineered Machiavellian provocation, how long
before a Hezbollah Pakistan is born by the existential
necessity of self-defence, to offer armed resistance to the Takfiris
in Pakistan shedding Shia blood with impunity with the state looking
the other way? (See The
New SAVAK in Pakistan).
For all that spilled Muslim blood in Pakistan and elsewhere, the
Pakistanis have not been galvanized into displaying public furor of
any consequence.

Apathy
is a strong motivator for any people to look the other way, or at
best do the obligatory feel-good “weekend jihad” and get
on with the pursuit of their “American Dream” the rest of
the week. But any perceived threat to the kingdom of Saudi Arabia,
the custodian of Mecca and Medina, is a different story altogether.
With proper propaganda support, that would easily become the
universal cause célèbre for yet another sacred
defence! The new narrative is a most brilliant play from
Machiavelli's playbook of engineering conflagration.

This
time it is engineered to flashpoint, and assisted by the state
apparatuses of the vassal states, as with the carefully crafted
public rhetoric of '“strong response” to threats to
his country’s territorial integrity,' the Pakistani rulers
repeatedly assured the Saudi Defence minister (see news reports
below). Instead of holding Saudi Arabia to the much touted human
rights standards for its barbaric beheadings and causing the death of
thousands of pilgrims in the preceding Hajj season, with no respect
shown to the dead pilgrim bodies which were subsequently buried
anonymously in mass graves and no apologies offered to their grieving
families and nations, the Pakistani officials, military and
political, rushed to declare their oath of allegiance to the kingdom
that bankrolls Pakistan and provides safe haven to its out-of-favor
political leaders during military take-overs.

Nawaz
Sharif, the incumbent prime minister of Pakistan, owes his life to
the kingdom of Saudi Arabia. A lesson that he learnt in a hurry after
having witnessed the fate of the former prime minister who has hanged
by the predecessor military dictator of Pakistan, and saw history
repeating itself without the Saudi intervention offering him refuge.
The prime minister of Pakistan can only repay his personal debt in
national blood.

Caption
It was agreed that the two countries would cooperate in developing an
effective counter narrative to defeat the extremist mindset. ─
Photo: PID (Dawn.com)

Caption
ISLAMABAD: While Chief of Army Staff Gen Raheel Sharif assured
visiting Saudi Defence Minister Mohammad bin Salman on Sunday of
“strong response” to threats to his country’s
territorial integrity, Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif called for
resolving its crisis with Iran through diplomacy and offered
Pakistan’s good offices in this regard. (Dawn.com)

What
is also not inexplicable is the Pakistan Army COAS quickly rushing to
dignify the Saudi regime's brutality under the most banal propaganda
rubric that would easily resonate with the public mind --- threat to
holy Saudi Arabia! To protect the holy lands from the impoverished
Yemenis, Pakistan's Defence Minister, Khawaja Asif, unabashedly
admitted on the National Assembly floor that Pakistan has agreements
with Saudi Arabia, stating: “our people do provide training to
the Saudi troops.” (January
19, 2016).
Training to do what? To bomb impoverished Yemen in partnership with
the Western Allies' proxy war services, as even headlined in the
British press: “British military advisers are in control rooms
assisting the Saudi-led coalition staging bombing raids across Yemen
that have killed thousands of civilians, the Saudi foreign minister
and the Ministry of Defence have confirmed.” (January
15, 2016).
Pakistan military advising and training the Saudis for bombing Yemen
– Why? What threat does the Shia rebellion in the North of that
impoverished country to demand equality and justice from their own
government present to Western backed Saudi kingdom? Only as the
provocation template to induce Iran into the Shia-Sunni battlefield
being mercilessly carved out in Muslim blood, with Pakistan, the
eager beaver proxy services provider to the world, already declaring
its chosen side! Then they shall come as “peace makers”,
as the Holy Qur'an vouches the war-mongers always deceitfully do:
“When it is said to them: "Make not mischief on the
earth", they say: "Why, we only want to make peace!"”
(2:11). Lo and behold, after choosing sides, after aiding and
abetting the Saudi aggressors in their propaganda narrative of the so
called 34-nation Sunni coalition to wage “war on terror”
from which Shia Iran is carefully kept out “due to trust
deficit”, Nawaz Sharif accompanied by his COAS gallantly trot
off to both nations to become the valiant “peace makers”
(“Saudi Arabia, Iran brotherly countries: PM Nawaz”,
January
19, 2016).

Beyond
the pretenses and public relations which wear thin, for the royal
welcome mat eagerly laid out in Pakistan for Saudi Defence and
Foreign Ministers, Pakistan's military's marching orders to provide
proxy services to the kingdom of Saudi Arabia, one may intelligently
surmise, must have come directly from the head of Western Alliance,
Washington. Because, like all militaries of the world prepared for
proxy services, Pakistan's too takes its policy and priority cues
from her own principal paymasters. As cliché as it may be,
there is still no free lunch!

To
be faithful to one's own nation one must not have foreign paymasters,
nor harvest one's own nation to make up the difference. Perhaps that
truism is no longer obvious to anyone.

The
provocation template of exercising foreign policy using proxy service
providers to seed international dysfunction is only an open secret.
It is not a state secret. America's current best
friend, the absolutist kingdom of Saudi Arabia, just like
America's former best friend, the absolutist dictator Iraqi Saddaam
Hussein, is about to taste the fruit of supping with the devil
without a very long spoon. As Henry Kissinger is known to have
once quipped: “it may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but
to be America's friend is fatal.”

The
war imposed upon us is principally an intellectually fueled war.
Those who don't use their intellect cannot ever confront it. Those
who do, unfortunately have no power unless people together use their
collective national intellect. Fools and useful idiots will always
overwhelm the most profound intellect as has happened throughout
human history. Mobs are swayed by emotions and sentimentalism and
before their rising noon tide, the tallest intelligence, the fairest
virtue, bows her head in acquiescence when they come to burn her
house down. The people of the Indian subcontinent are given to this
predilection more than almost any other people. The blood partition
of 1947 is empirical evidence of that fact that nothing was left
sacred by the Hindu-Muslim-Sikh mobs incited by events beyond their
control and acumen, swearing blood revenge upon each other. Neighbour
killed neighbour, friend killed friend, just because they were not
part of the same religion. That same fire of separation on
ideological grounds, “us vs. them”, is being rekindled
among the same people, specifically of riot prone Pakistan. But this
time along their natural fissures, the sectarian boundary.

If
simpleton minds think it cannot happen, that all this is far fetched,
just see how the militaries of Shia majority Iraq and Shia majority
Iran so easily decimated each other in the name of their respective
“divine mandate”. Just imagine the momentousness of the
“divine mandate” when Mecca and Medina are presented as
being in danger! Muslim masses are mere putty in the hands of
propagandist and religious authority figures. Where the billion
Muslims have stayed largely impervious to the Saudi kingdom
obliterating archeological vestiges of the early advent of Islam and
its noble Prophet from their Hijaz territories, only because there
has been no adverse propaganda campaign against that imperial evil,
and also because the systematic destruction is carried out under the
positive propaganda cover of expanding Hajj services to accommodate
the larger number of people coming for pilgrimage,
the Muslim masses will be mobilized instantly to put on their jihad
robes and pile on top of each other to reach heaven with the right
provocation. The fratricide is indefinitely
sustainable when accompanied by, as Brzezinski put it, “a
high degree of doctrinal motivation, intellectual commitment, and
patriotic gratification.”

The
mobilization exercises to recruit the mujahideen for America's proxy
war against the USSR in Afghanistan among the Sunnis worldwide, but
mainly in Afghanistan-Pakistan, and the baseej
and other canon fodder in Shia Iran by Ayatollah Khomeini for
the American sponsored Iran-Iraq war during that same period to
birth-pang the infamous “arc of crisis”, which, as
Brzezinski prognosticated in the Time Magazine of January 1979: “An
arc of crisis stretches along the shores of the Indian Ocean, with
fragile social and political structures in a region of vital
importance to us threatened with fragmentation. The resulting
political chaos could well be filled by elements hostile to our
values and sympathetic to our adversaries.”, have
unequivocally demonstrated the success of “God
is on your side”
applied thickly enough!

Let's
not fall for it again. Inform our leaders, our generals, our rulers,
our scholars, our opinion-makers, that we do not wish to be
participant in their games. That we are not sheep and that we refuse
to service the mutton eaters!

Let
each one of us feel the burden of responsibility to douse the dry
kiln wood around us and within our reach, in plentiful water before
the imperial spark succeeds in setting it all ablaze.

Saudi
deputy crown prince and Defence Minister Muhammad Bin Salman along
with Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif at PM House.─ Photo: PM House
It was agreed that the two countries would cooperate in developing
an effective counter narrative to defeat the extremist mindset. ─
Photo: PID

ISLAMABAD: While Chief of Army Staff Gen Raheel Sharif assured
visiting Saudi Defence Minister Mohammad bin Salman on Sunday of
“strong response” to threats to his country’s
territorial integrity, Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif called for
resolving its crisis with Iran through diplomacy and offered
Pakistan’s good offices in this regard.
“Pakistan has historically pursued the policy of promoting
brotherhood among member states of the OIC. Pakistan has also always
expressed its readiness to offer its good offices to brotherly Muslim
countries for resolution of their differences,” the prime
minister was quoted by his office as having told the Saudi deputy
crown prince.
Prince Mohammad met the army chief and the prime minister during
his seven-hour stay here. Defence Minister Khawaja Asif received him
at the airport, but curiously there was no counterpart meeting.

Saudi
defence minister was received by Prime Minister's Adviser on Foreign
Affairs Sartaj Aziz and Defence Minster Khawaja Asif.─ Photo:
PID
The Saudi prince, whose visit came close on the heels of one by
Foreign Minister Adel Jubeir, was reportedly here to find out how
Pakistan could militarily assist his country.
The prime minister recalled the “historical, cultural, and
religious” ties and reiterated the established commitment of
standing with the “people of Saudi Arabia” in case of any
threat to its territorial integrity, while also stressing the need
for peacefully resolving the conflict.

In his meeting with the Saudi minister at the General
Headquarters, the army chief delivered a stronger message —
probably offering the visiting leader the sound bite that he came
looking for.

Saudi
deputy crown prince and Defence Minister met COAS General Raheel
Sharif, COAS at General Headquarters.─ Photo: ISPR
Gen Sharif, according to ISPR, “re-asserted that any threat
to Saudi Arabia’s territorial integrity would evoke a strong
response from Pakistan”.
Negotiations between GHQ and Saudi officials on defence
cooperation preceded Prince Mohammad’s visit. The discussions
are being kept highly secret.
Although it is publicly unknown what the military has committed to
the Saudis, Gen Sharif found it enough to say that the defence
relationship with the country was held “in highest esteem”.
Amid speculations on the matter, a government source was reported
as saying that the military had committed deployment of troops in
Saudi Arabia.
However, the claim could not be verified and military spokesman Lt
Gen Asim Bajwa was unavailable for comments because he is out of the
country.
Defence Minister Mohammad told Gen Sharif that his country would
extend “full support to Pakistan’s position on all
matters”.
The execution this month of Saudi Shia cleric Sheikh Nimr Baqir Al
Nimr and the subsequent reaction from Iran, including storming of the
Saudi embassy in Tehran, sparked the crisis in the already tense
relationship between the two countries. Saudi Arabia responded by
cutting off its diplomatic relations with Iran and many of its Arab
allies followed suit.
Foreign Minister Jubeir said after a special session of the Gulf
Cooperation Council a day earlier that Saudi Arabia was mulling
additional steps against Iran, but Defence Minister Mohammad hinted
in a media interview that confrontation would not be allowed to
escalate into an all-out war.
Besides discussing the tensions with Iran, the Saudi prince was
also here to promote a counter-terrorism coalition, which is said to
be his brainchild.
Video posted by PML-N official Facebook page
Prime Minister Sharif welcomed the initiative and reaffirmed
support for the coalition of ‘like-minded Islamic countries’.
“Pakistan supports efforts to counter terrorism and
extremism,” he said in his meeting with the visiting minister.
“The two leaders agreed to strengthen bilateral relations
between Pakistan and Saudi Arabia and deepen the cooperation in all
fields, including defence, security, fight against terrorism, trade
and investment and meeting manpower requirements of the kingdom,”
the official statement said.
It was also agreed that the two countries would cooperate in
developing an effective counter-narrative to defeat the extremist
mindset.Published in Dawn, January 11th, 2016

Saudi
deputy crown prince and Defence Minister Muhammad Bin Salman along
with Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif at PM House.─ Photo: PM House
ISLAMABAD: Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif in his meeting with Saudi
Arabia’s Deputy Crown Prince and Defence Minister Muhammad Bin
Salman and assured Saudi Arabia of Pakistan's support if if any
threat arises to its territorial integrity.
According to a statement released from Prime Minister House, the
prime minister also exchanged views with the Saudi dignitary on
bilateral relations and regional security.
Video posted by PML-N official Facebook page

Meeting with COAS

Chief of Army Staff (COAS) General Raheel Sharif met the Saudi
Defence Minister at General Headquarters this afternoon and discussed
matters related to regional security and defence cooperation.
During his meeting with Muhammad Bin Salman, the COAS said that
Pakistan enjoys close and brotherly relations with Saudi Arabia and
other Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries and attaches great
importance to their security.
About the country's defence ties with Saudi Arabia, Raheel Sharif
repeated that Pakistan holds its defence ties with the Kingdom in
highest esteem and any threat to Saudi Arabia’s territorial
integrity would evoke a strong response from Pakistan.
According to ISPR, Saudi Defence Minister also expressed similar
thoughts and also appreciated Pakistan's armed forces over their
successes in fight against terrorism.
The crown prince reaffitmed Kingdom’s full support to
Pakistan’s position on all matters

Saudi
defence minister was received by Prime Minister's Adviser on Foreign
Affairs Sartaj Aziz and Defence Minster Khawaja Asif.─ Photo:
PID
Saudi Arabia’s Deputy Crown Prince Muhammad Bin Salman, who
is also the deputy prime minister and minister for defence, arrived
here on Sunday for a day-long trip for seeking Pakistan’s
support as the kingdom mulls additional steps against Iran.
This is the second high-profile visitor from Riyadh in three days.
Foreign Minister Adel al-Jubeir visited Islamabad on Thursday for
discussing Riyadh’s tensions with Tehran and the
counter-terrorism coalition that Saudi Arabia had announced.
Prince Muhammad followed up on the discussions FM Jubeir had here
and met Chief of Army Staff General Raheel Sharif and Prime Minister
Mian Muhammad Nawaz Sharif.

A military cooperation arrangement is expected to be concluded

The Saudi defence minister will also meet meet Minister for
Defence Khawaja Asif.
Pakistan has indicated it could consider the Saudi invitation to
join the 34-nation coalition (proposed by Riyadh before the Iran
spat). However, no official announcement has been made so far.
Islamabad has criticised Iran for reacting to Saudi cleric Sheikh
Nimr’s execution and sees it as interference in internal
matters of the kingdom.
FM Jubeir on Saturday, after an extraordinary meeting of the
foreign ministers of the Gulf Cooperation Council, said that Saudi
Arabia could take further steps against Iran if tensions were to
escalate.
A source said that the Saudi defence minister is expected to
conclude a military cooperation arrangement during the trip, which
the two sides have been negotiating recently.
Saudi Assistant Defence Minister for Military Affairs Muhammad Bin
Abdullah al-Ayish earlier visited GHQ and his trip was followed by
discussions at other levels. Details of the cooperation agreement are
being kept under wraps.
A military official described intensified contacts as part of
Riyadh’s heightened diplomatic outreach to allied countries
amid aggravating tensions with Iran.
Chairman Joint Chiefs of Staff Committee Gen Rashad Mahmood is
also expected to visit Saudi Arabia later this month.

ISLAMABAD:
Saudi Foreign Minister Adel bin Ahmed Al-Jubeir shaking hands with
Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif before their meeting at the PM House.—INP
ISLAMABAD: Pakistan reaffirmed on Thursday its support to Saudi
Arabia, which is embroiled in a tense standoff with Iran, and the
counter-terrorism coalition that it (Riyadh) was setting up.
The reiteration of support for the Saudi government was made
during a shortened visit by Saudi Foreign Minister Dr Adel Al-Jubeir
to Islamabad for discussions on his country’s diplomatic row
with Iran and the multinational coalition against terrorism it (Saudi
Arabia) had announced.
“People of Pakistan held the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia in high
esteem and also had deep respect for the Custodian of the Two Holy
Mosques. … (they) will always stand shoulder to shoulder with
the people of Saudi Arabia against any threat to its territorial
integrity and sovereignty,” PM Sharif told FM Jubeir, while
assuring him of Pakistan’s unconditional support.
Additionally, a media statement said the two sides discussed
regional and global issues of common concern and agreed on promoting
multi-faceted cooperation.

Foreign Minister Jubeir holds talks with Sharif, army chief

The Saudi foreign minister started his whirlwind tour of Islamabad
with a meeting with Army Chief Gen Raheel Sharif at GHQ and then
visited Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif at his residence before
concluding the trip with a meeting with Adviser on Foreign Affairs
Sartaj Aziz.
Mr Jubeir, who led a 17-member delegation, stayed in Islamabad for
a little over six hours. His trip was officially described as a
‘working visit’.
He was to originally visit Islamabad on Sunday, but postponed it
at the eleventh hour due to the storming of Saudi embassy in Tehran
by protesters agitating against the execution of Saudi dissident
Sheikh Nimr Baqir Al-Nimr.
As the Saudi foreign minister landed in Islamabad, protesters from
various religious parties held a protest demonstration in the federal
capital’s D-Chowk against Pakistan’s decision to join the
Saudi-led coalition and execution of Sheikh Nimr.
The Foreign Office cancelled a planned joint press conference by
Mr Aziz and Mr Jubeir to avoid possible media questions over the
recent regional developments involving Saudi Arabia.
A statement issued by the Foreign Office said that Mr Jubeir
talked about tensions with Iran during his meetings.
Pakistan, which had already con­demned the Saudi embassy
incident, went a step further by noting it “believes in respect
for international norms and adherence to non-interference”.

Counter-terrorism coalition

Besides the tensions with Iran, the Saudi foreign minister was
said to have briefed Prime Minister Sharif on details of the
counter-terrorism coalition.
Saudi Arabia had last month announced that it was establishing a
34-nation coalition to fight terrorism. The government at the time of
announcement of the coalition, in which Pakistan had been included,
conceded that it did not know much about the group, but still agreed
to join it. It was also said that the extent of involvement in the
activities would be decided after Riyadh shared the details.
Speaking to Mr Jubeir, Mr Sharif said: “Pakistan welcomes
Saudi Arabia’s initiative and supports all such regional and
international efforts to counter terrorism and extremism.”
During the delegation-level meeting the two sides led by the
respective foreign ministers, agreed on engaging the clergy for
formulating a narrative against extremism and terrorism.Published in Dawn, January 8th, 2016

A
woman holds a sign for cleric Nimr al-Nimr, who was executed along
with others in Saudi Arabia. —Reuters
ISLAMABAD: Hundreds of people joined a Shia-led protest in
Islamabad on Friday against the government's decision to join
Saudi Arabia's 34-country coalition against extremism, as
Riyadh's foreign minister ended a two-day visit to the country.
The protesters presented a memorandum to the Foreign Office
spokesman demanding Pakistan to drop out of the alliance, which was
announced in December and is seen as the latest sign of a more
assertive foreign policy by the Saudi kingdom, the dominant Muslim
power in the Middle East.
“Neither the Pakistan army nor the nation is for rent, we
will oppose any attempts to sell the army to the house of Saud for a
few billion riyals,” said Shia activist Gul-e-Zahra, addressing
the Friday's rally.
Pakistan announced on Thursday they would join the Saudi-led
military alliance to fight “terrorism” in the Islamic
world, following a meeting between Riyadh's foreign minister Adel bin
Ahmed Al-Jubeir and Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif.
Saudi Arabia announced the coalition last month, naming Pakistan
as a member, but Islamabad had initially reacted cautiously saying it
needed further details before deciding the extent of its
participation.
In a separate rally in the capital, an estimated 1,500 people
chanted slogans against Saudi's execution of Shia cleric Sheikh Nimr
al-Nimr on January 2, which sparked a deepening crisis between Riyadh
and regional rival Iran.

An
ASWJ supporter holds a placard to condemn the attack on Saudi
consulate in Iran. —Reuters
Small scale rallies against the Saudi coalition were also
organised in Lahore, however, protests were also held in Islamabad
against Iran, with demonstrators accusing Tehran of “meddling
“in Saudi Arabia's internal affairs.
The protesters chanted slogans vowing to “lay down their
lives for the protection of the custodians of the holy cities”,
a term used for the ruling Saudi family.

Print
WASHINGTON: The conflict between Saudi Arabia and Iran is likely
to further widen an existing sectarian divide in the Middle East,
pitting Muslims against Muslims, warns a US survey released on
Thursday.
The survey by the Washington-based Pew Research Centre shows that
in Jordan, a predominantly Sunni country, 78 per cent of the public
have a favourable view of Saudi Arabia, compared with only 8 per cent
who have a positive opinion of Iran.
In the Palestinian territories, where again Sunnis predominate,
about half — 51pc — have a favourable view of Saudi
Arabia.
Here, there is a split by location. Among Palestinians living in
the Gaza Strip, 60pc have a positive opinion of Saudi Arabia,
compared with 46pc among West Bank residents.
Meanwhile, only 34pc in the Palestinian territories express a
positive opinion of Iran, with more support coming from the West Bank
(40pc) than from Gaza (24pc).
Overall, 48pc in Lebanon have a favourable view of Saudi Arabia
versus 41pc who like Iran. However, as is usually the case in
Lebanon, opinion is divided among three main religious groups in the
country: Christians, Sunni Muslims and Shia Muslims.
An overwhelming number of Sunni Lebanese have a favourable view of
Saudi Arabia (82pc), while Iran’s favourability among Sunnis
sits at 5pc.
An even greater divide exists among the Lebanese Shia population,
with 95pc saying they like Iran, while only 3pc say the same about
Saudi Arabia.
Christians in Lebanon tend to have more favourable views of Saudi
Arabia (54pc) than Iran (29pc).
In two other Middle Eastern nations surveyed, there is little
support for either Saudi Arabia or Iran. In Turkey, around two-in-ten
have favourable views of each power.
And in Israel, even fewer like Riyadh (14pc) or Tehran (5pc). In
Israel, the Arab population is about as positive toward Saudi Arabia
(37pc favourable) as it is Iran (34pc), despite the fact that the
Israeli Muslim population is predominantly Sunni.
Jews in Israel, however, have little regard for Saudi Arabia (10pc
favourable) or for Iran — for which there is little per cent
favourability among Israeli Jews.Published in Dawn, January 8th, 2016

The recent
execution of Shia leader Nimr al-Nimr, along with dozens of other
prisoners, by the Saudi Arabian government has sparked a furor in the
Middle East. The storming of the Saudi Embassy amid protests in Iran,
a predominantly Shia Muslim nation with long-standing animosity
toward predominantly Sunni Saudi Arabia, has led to the cutting
of diplomatic ties between the two powers. Saudi allies in the
region, such as Bahrain, have followed suit.

The tensions between Saudi Arabia and Iran are often characterized as
sectarian – that is, Iran and its Shia allies versus Saudi
Arabia and its Sunni brethren. And this characterization plays out to
a large degree in public attitudes toward the two countries in
five Middle Eastern nations Pew Research Center surveyed in spring
2015. In Jordan, a predominantly
Sunni Muslim nation, 78% of the public have a favorable view of
Saudi Arabia, compared with only 8% who have a positive opinion
of Iran.

Print
LONDON: Saudi Arabia's execution of Shia cleric Sheikh Nimr
al-Nimr has exposed the dangerous political, religious and
socio-economic fault lines which run through the kingdom and the
Gulf.
News of the execution sparked some unrest among Shia communities
in Saudi Arabia's oil-rich Eastern Province and in neighbouring
Bahrain as well as in southern Iraq.
Iran's supreme leader effectively called for the overthrow of the
Saudi monarchy, drawing a furious response from the Saudi government,
which accused the Islamic Republic of interfering in the kingdom's
internal affairs.
Iranian protesters stormed the Saudi embassy in Tehran, and Saudi
Arabia responded by breaking off diplomatic relations and encouraging
allied Sunni governments to do the same.
Saudi Arabia's ambassador to the United Nations (UN) told
reporters on Monday "we are not natural born enemies of Iran".
But restoring diplomatic relations would only be possible if Iran
were to "cease and desist from interfering in the internal
affairs of other countries, including our own".
The rivalry between the two big powers in the Gulf is often
simplified to a contest between a conservative Sunni monarchy and a
revolutionary Shia republic; the reality is more complicated and
worrying.
Saudi Arabia's Eastern Province lies at the dangerous intersection
of great power rivalry between Iran and Saudi Arabia, sectarian
conflict between Sunni and Shia, social and economic grievances, and
the world's largest oil reserves.

Fault lines

Researchers at Columbia University have put together an
outstanding
collection of maps illustrating the cultural, religious, tribal
and linguistic divisions across the Gulf region.They
show Shia majority areas stretching in an arc up through Iran,
across southern Iraq and down along the eastern coast of Saudi Arabia
into Bahrain, with a further output in the highlands of northern
Yemen.
Iran has taken a special interest in the Shia communities in all
these countries; and in some cases the government in Tehran,
especially the Revolutionary Guards and other elements, have tried to
export their influence.
But it is also clear that many of these Shia communities have
strong local grievances and much of the unrest has local roots rather
than simply being stirred up by Iran.
Shia communities in Iraq, Bahrain and Saudi Arabia have all
suffered discrimination and marginalisation at the hands of
Sunni-dominated governments and societies over the last century.
What adds to the destabilising cocktail is that areas that are
home to many Shia communities are also where most of the region's oil
and gas fields and remaining reserves are.
Southern Shia-dominated Iraq contains far more oil and gas than
the Sunni-majority areas in the centre of the country.
And in Saudi Arabia, Eastern Province is where almost
all the country's oil and gas reserves are to be found.
Conditions in the Eastern Province remain relatively opaque
because access and reporting are controlled by the Saudi government,
which also strongly discourages international discussion about
political risks affecting the kingdom.
The potential for serious unrest is one of those low probability,
high consequence risks that are difficult to estimate properly but
which should not be ignored.
Unrest remains a tail risk rather than a central risk. It is much
more likely the Eastern Province will remain peaceful, and much less
likely that it will see social upheaval.
No one will make money betting on political instability in Saudi
Arabia or unrest in the oilfields because the probability in any
given year is low.
The risk of unrest could be as low as 5 per cent or even 1pc but
that is not the same as zero. The same could have been said about the
risk of upheaval in Egypt or Tunisia before 2011.
The risks are real enough that they are perceived as a serious
danger by the Saudi government, which continues to maintain a heavy
security presence in the area, and they help explain why the
confrontation between Riyadh and Tehran is so bitter and so personal.

Complex kingdom

In most parts of the Middle East, national boundaries do not
correspond to religious, cultural, linguistic or tribal divisions,
and Saudi Arabia is no exception.
The kingdom is an amalgamation of the conservative central region
(Najd) with the western coast (Hijaz) and the eastern oases along the
Gulf coast (al-Hasa), all
of which were separately administered until comparatively
recently.
King Abdulaziz, ruler of the Najd, conquered al-Hasa in 1913 from
the disintegrating Ottoman Empire, and added the Hijaz in 1924/25,
finally unifying the country in 1932. But there are still major
cultural and religious differences between the regions and even
within them.
Much of the ruling political and religious elite is drawn from the
Najd, which is also identified with the austere Wahhabi form of
Islam.
Hijaz was the home of more liberal interpretations of Islam while
the majority of the population in al-Hasa followed Shia Islam.
As part of an effort at nation-building, conservative religious
views from the Najd have been imposed on other parts of the country.
According to the US government's Commission on International
Religious Freedom, the modern Saudi state "privileges its own
interpretation of Sunni Islam over all other interpretations"
and "restricts most forms of public religious expression
inconsistent with its particular interpretation of Sunni Islam".
One result is a long history of tension between Sunnis, especially
those following a strict Wahhabi interpretation, and the Shia
communities in al-Hasa, now renamed the Eastern Province.
"Authorities continue to repress and discriminate against
dissident clerics and members of the Shia community” the
Commission on International Religious Freedom wrote in its latest
annual report.
"The Shia community also faces discrimination in education,
employment, the military, political representation, and the
judiciary," the Commission concluded, according to the
International Religious Freedom Report 2015. The Saudi government
denies any discrimination.
Recent reports have noted progress towards ending official
discrimination, but how much unofficial discrimination remains is
unclear because the Saudi government strongly discourages research.
As recently as 2012, the Commission found: "There are no Shia
ministers in the government, only 5 of the 150-member Shura
(Consultative Council) are Shia Muslims, and there are very few Shia
Muslim leaders in high-level government positions, particularly in
the security agencies."
"In predominantly Sunni Muslim areas of the country outside
the Eastern Province, Shia and Ismaili Muslims face harassment,
arrest and detention," it concluded, according to the
International Religious Freedom Report 2012.

Violent protests

Sectarian tensions between Sunnis and Shias have periodically
resulted in unrest in the Eastern Province ─ including two
major labour strikes against the Arabian American Oil Company
(Aramco) in 1953 and 1956, a full-scale uprising in 1979/80, and
demonstrations in 2011.
The 1953 and 1956 strikes "were sparked by grievances over
low wages, poor working and living conditions, and racism,"
according to historian Toby Jones of Rutgers University, according to
'Desert Kingdom: How Oil and Water Forged Modern Saudi Arabia'.
"From the beginning, Aramco was acutely aware of
compatibility issues between Sunni and Shia Muslims," the
company's former chief executive Frank Jungers wrote in his memoir,
'The Caravan Goes On: How Aramco and Saudi Arabia Grew Up Together'.
"The Shias were definitely in the minority nationally but
made up the majority in the Eastern Province and tended to live in
separate areas. The company was careful as a matter of policy not to
allow this religious difference to become a factor in the training or
evaluation of an employee," Jungers explained.
Aramco worked hard to professionalise its labour force, but the
fact Jungers mentioned religious differences so prominently
underscores the potential for tension.
In 1979, protests erupted in Qatif and a number of other Shia
areas of the Eastern Province, as well as in neighbouring Bahrain,
and became violent following confrontations with the security forces.
The unrest, which had a strong sectarian element, came only a few
months after the shah was violently overthrown and the Islamic
Revolution brought to power Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomenei in Iran.
The new government in Tehran sought to export its revolutionary
ideology and openly encouraged Shia communities in neighbouring Iraq,
Kuwait, Bahrain and Saudi Arabia to revolt against their Sunni
rulers.
Khomenei's government broadcast its revolutionary message by
beaming a powerful radio signal directly into the Eastern Province.
"There is little doubt that the Iranian Revolution helped
galvanize politics and energise dissent among Shia in neighbouring
countries," according to Jones. "The revolution helped
explain both the timing and some of the forces that encouraged Saudis
to take to the streets."
In 2011, there were again violent protests in the Eastern Province
and Bahrain as part of the wider Arab Spring, again mostly involving
Shia communities, which were put down by the security services.
Following Nimr's execution, hundreds of protesters marched through
Qatif on Saturday, according to eyewitness reports.

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