428 Districts

Nate Silver believes that the GOP is reprising Howard Dean's 50 state strategy:

According to research by Derek Willis of The New York Times, the
Republicans will nominate candidates in 428 Congressional districts
this year, leaving only seven races all in overwhelmingly Democratic
areas, like the South Side of Chicago uncontested. This contrasts
sharply with 2006, when Republicans left the Democrats unchallenged in
45 districts, or 2008, when they failed to nominate a candidate in 42
races.

The Democrats, for their part, are not doing badly: They will have a
candidate on the ballot in 412 districts  all but 23 which is
better than their recent historical average. Still, this is a step down
from 2008, when they left just 14 seats uncontested.

He gives Republicans about a 25 percent chance of taking over the Senate.

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