Bingo! It’s clear that Silver understands numbers, but his underlying assumptions are subjective and shifting. The first red flag is the fact that he assigns a probability of victory. No pollster does that because that isn’t what pollsters do.

No pollster does that because that isnt what pollsters do. Silver isn't a pollster, he is an oddsmaker. Basically a political bookie. But i think you are right, he sees the numbers but not the influences of them. A bit of not being able to see the forest through all the trees...

13 posted on 11/05/2012 9:49:54 AM PST by HenryArmitage
(it was not meant that we should voyage far.)