Life relates to trading and trading relates to life. Constantly revealing, unfolding before us as we trade and live, so I write about how my life relates to trading and how I trade the markets. Along the way I share my opinions on anything that evokes my passion or tickles my funny bone trying not to forget that enjoying life is the best part of living.

Wednesday, January 30, 2013

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***** Not surprising that the breakout occurred once the test was met. There is enthusiasm and a bit of fear mixed in with the action which drives these markets higher. The surprising reaction to the negative and positive earnings and forecasts is another additive to the upside.

It's been the experience of the past couple of years that the negative news is being shrugged off, but what is now happening is that the obvious negative news is being ignored almost entirely. It's as if the public and the traders are tossing aside caution because it has not been the recent experience that the markets have reacted violently to anything negative. Yet, if we examine the trend patterns on the monthly since 2009 and we'll note several major drops, so in the realm of possibilities it still exists that what goes up must come down. Eventually.

Monday, January 28, 2013

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***** Friday we nearly reached my forecasted test numbers for both. The $DJIA at 13896 high nearly reached 13924 awaited test, which is the double top just below the all time high from back in 2007.

$AAPL on the other hand and perhaps even a bigger story is the pattern completion test near the 420. I've been talking and writing about this possibility off and on for several months. After the recent earnings breakdown it's time for a pause but the 420 is still beckoning. The problem with a possible pause and reversal at the 435 region is that it may cause confidence long enough to make the next downturn more severe.

As I wrote before, correction to $AAPL has been as much as 50% and 60% so the 360 region, which is the next major support level below 420 area, is not out of the running when we consider the top at 705. I did not wish to offend people who tell me things such as that have passed and will never happen again with $AAPL. OK maybe not, yet, the pattern is still there, and regardless of protestations it will not become something else just because of disagreement. Even if it takes longer to play out with much money to be made to the upside, the pattern completion will still be a magnet until such time that the pattern completes or until the price rises to form a new pattern. It behooves both skeptics and believers to keep both possibilities in mind.

That said, there are no rules against patterns within patterns especially in different time frames. It is the reason why we have to pay attention to the double bottom formed on the daily today as it could signal a V shaped recovery. Question being, as always, for how long and how high and no matter which way you wish to play, trade it well and carefully.

Thursday, January 24, 2013

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***** Today the $DJIA broke out of the current weekly trend and approaching the double top high of 13924 last seen 2007. What comes next is anyones guess but it certainly begs the question if we can keep this up much longer. We've been on this trend since October 2011 on the weekly and since 2009 on the monthly chart. In other words since the low of 6470.

Long has it been since I last heard of a retest of those lows. Possibilities existed but it never threatened once we were comfortably over the 10,000. Now that we are getting near to testing the all time high we have to ask, if it's possible to go higher. The answer of course is yes, especially if you look at the trendline and channels, but then we also must ask how fast was up because the reversals tend to be faster.

I suppose we all want the best scenario for everyone; companies, investors and the economy. Still, it is important to keep things in perspective. Realize that not all things can keep going up, except inflation and taxes, you might say, but remember that even those have cycles when some semblance of reason returns. Of course it also begs the question: when one's in love, what is reality or perspective?

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***** Once again I want to reiterate that, from my experience, patterns tend to be relentless and therefore they win in the end. If you wish to fight them do it with caution. I don't claim that there are no exceptions and detours but eventually they do win out.

I remember a couple of years back going through the same arguments with the chart on AAPL where many comments were to the upside and I kept seeing a need for a completion to the downside, once that hit, the longs were correct, but it took a couple of weeks to play out. I guess what I'm trying to say is that it's not about being right it's about following the laws of "nature". So don't become impatient, look for the reason why a run is not acting your way, there is something there on the charts which may open your eyes.

Tuesday, January 22, 2013

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***** Recorded and uploaded on YouTube the 21st, the $DJIA today hit and broke through the high of last year in morning trading. Continue to watch the direction develop as we get the most watched earnings reports this week.

Thursday, January 17, 2013

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***** We are very near to testing last year's high of 13661.87 ... so coupled with earnings reports, this could become volatile indeed. Tomorrow is Options Expiration Day (OPEX) the first of the year, so predictions are worth about 0 at this time, but then they're seldom worth more. Possibilities is on what I focus and there's a big difference between the two.

Women are very good at seeing possibilities we practice it on our men all the time. LOL Of course possibilities do not make it so and what many of us have to learn with our men as in trading, is that wishing won't help either. In other words, you can't change your man nor can you change the charts or the market. You can only keep loving them the way they are.

How long it will last, only the Fates know, but you can be sure that just as in life, the higher we get, the more we realize that we're only on borrowed time.

Tuesday, January 15, 2013

Tweet ***** It's all about the AAPL here and PCs, Laptops, Tablets, Phones possibly. If you remember the PC craze back in the late 90's you know of what I'm speaking. Then, with each RAM upgrade and each HD capacity increase, people flocked to buy new PC's to have the latest and greatest. Until it stopped. The .com busted and we got saturated with the hype and finally realized that there would be more bigger and better products coming, exhausting our capacity for the need.

It's interesting that we have to be reminded about the fact that it has happened before and that new and wonderful things become ordinary, so they are not going to stay popular forever. Tulips, Coal, Oil, Steel, Gold, Silver, Plastics and Silicon all have their time cycles.

Take a look at the monthly on $AAPL and you'll see what I am saying. In Dec 2007 it reached $202.96 then proceeded to lose almost 50% of it's value in the beginning 2 months of 2008 diving to 115.44. Apple (AAPL) rose once more to near 200 or 192.24 on May 2008 double topping in June before losing near 60% of it's value bottoming at 78.20 in Jan 2009. If you study this monthly chart from 2005 - 2009 you'll see the same pattern that many are currently fighting. So follow its rise again and a new high, you'll see the cycle. A reminder that mountains don't keep rising, there is the downward slope and a valley before it rises again. You've read/heard me often enough about studying charts; this is precisely why I study chart history. The cycle repeats and patterns have to complete.

Further, there is an almost predictable behavior, a psychology, about owning, following and being in love with a company. I've written many articles about Apple Inc. (AAPL) in the past years on this blog, you can check them in the archives. I wrote many about Steve Jobs, as the legend; AAPL as the cult and the product but precisely about this possibility back in August, 2011 in an article entitled: "AAPL vs AAPL" When Steve Jobs stepped down and handed the baton to Tim Cook. Read it and you'll see I was predicting to about 18 months ahead, which is February 2013.

Does it mean it's the end of AAPL? Of course not, but every company/stock has it's glory that's why they are the leaders. I got lots of flack from people who didn't want to see this possibility, when I said RIMM was here too. The best advice I can give is for you to let it play out or complete. Then you'll have your next opportunity to play in the hills and mountains as they rise again.

Sunday, January 13, 2013

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*****When we are looking at trends, trendlines and the future, it behooves us to look ahead from the past. It's not to be stuck there, but it's the best way to look how or where a path is heading. It's our most assured way to predict the future if indeed it can be predicted.

Call it the power of suggestion? Perhaps, but we all know that things occur in cycles and trendline channels tend to show those cycles the best. So look back and see where it proves the theory and where it can again prove it in the future. If it follows the path and becomes reality, then we proved it, if it does not, we still learn by finding the evidence against the theory.

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***** I just noticed that I've reached over 60K visitors from around the world. It may not seem much to many for little over 5 years of writing, but I appreciate each one of you who read and follow me and my trading life. Over the past five years I've met many of you via letters, photos, even visits. Not everyone kept reading, but most of you stuck around with me through nice times, happy times, hard times and crazy times.

Like living life, the markets never really get easier they just tire some of us out and it's hard to keep things fresh all the time as it is hard to please everyone but I keep dancing because I enjoy it even when my feet hurt. Crazy as it seems, nobody pays me for this and so it's out of pure delicious amusement that I keep coming up with topics. Admittedly sometimes far in between, but I want you to know that I don't have plans to stop writing just yet, and so this note is to thank you for your following and reading this blog and to ask that you spread the word so soon I can write another note about reaching another 10-100K readers. In the meantime I'll keep dancing, living and trading .....

Thursday, January 10, 2013

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***** Not so fast. Remember first we have to pass resistances then retest some lows and experience pullbacks. One thing for sure the 13661 test is close. It reached those highs back in Sept. and Oct. 2012 and now once again may test. Will it be the triple top to signal a major correction or will it be shot through and another high test reached? I always say that wicks and tails on a candle like to be filled but the way they are filled will give a clearer answer to the question of the next step. So be patient and let the chart unfold.

You can be certain that the direction we are heading is lofty and it has had a long strenuous climb to this level, but the wheel seems to keep turning higher. Remember though that the nearer we get to the apex the more fear will be exhibited, hence fluctuations may become wild much like today's pop and drop. So always have your stops set no matter what you may see, that way you can keep your confidence.

There are never any guarantees that you'll make it to the top especially if you don't practice safety measures. It's why I say to trade it well, and trade it carefully so you can trade it another day and keep the Wheel in the Sky turning.

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***** Just for the record, I am posting yesterday's after hours tape as well as today's mid afternoon update. It seems that the YouTube post for today, posted after hours yesterday, got lost in the middle of the night. I uploaded it again this morning but you can hear it here also.

I also would like to emphasize that I do not edit my tapes once posted. It is as I record them, flaws and all, naked as my charts :)

Wednesday, January 9, 2013

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***** All things, good or bad, must come to an end someday, but my belief is that the markets and governments, good or bad, will continue no matter what we do in our lives.
As I look toward the possible future, I see nothing but further inflation and debt, which unfortunately will be coated with good looking earnings to fool most of us into thinking that things are going well.

Inflation is fueled by more money in circulation, and the government has been doing nothing but printing it in record amounts for the past four years running. Unfortunately it's a cycle that governments could never nor will they ever fix because it's not in their interest to do so.

Members of our government keep trying to convince us that what they are working diligently to solve the problem, but I don't care where you live in the world, as long as you are unable to reinvest your income, it is impossible to have real growth. The government by collecting more taxes is assuring that you cannot invest your income. In fact what they are asking is to pay them more first then go and borrow money to invest in yourself. Which is exactly what they mandated with the Fiscal Cliff deal and It's a recipe for disaster.

Those who are in that cycle know it best because they are the ones trying to keep the wheel turning. Small businesses who were once the mom and pops and the backbone of American ingenuity and earnings, are now required to pay additional taxes not only for themselves but also for each employee. If they were to increase production, to generate more sales, they have to borrow, which assures increased prices for the goods. It also follows that if they borrow, they may not be able to hire more workers, and production can fall or quality can fall, or jobs in cheaper areas are used. The rest of the population, or the workers only know their money doesn't buy what it used to therefore will wish to increase their income, ask for a raise, so it will. Unfortunately, requesting more income only adds to the problem.

The only way for growth is investments. Unfortunately those of us who have the means to invest keep finding more hurdles to do so and those of us who earn via investing in companies will pay more for our success as the expense of the companies we wish to support.

Let me put it this way: If we invest in a company and we make more (capital gains) , we pay more (increased taxes) , if we pay more (in taxes), we have less to invest next time. Capice? On the other hand, if we invest, pay less in taxes on our earnings, we will have more to invest which equals to more growth and therefore will pay more taxes in the long run. Capice? Those in Congress who voted "Nay" on the Fiscal Cliff deal and all the QE's before it, understand this concept, those who voted "Yea" do not. Since there are more who voted "Yea" means that the problem I stated above is a long way from being solved, therefore borrowing, injecting and inflation will continue. Now if the debt ceiling is eliminated, where and when do you think it will all end?

Thursday, January 3, 2013

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*****Never assume that you know which way the markets will go is a good motto for daily (day) traders. The only safe bet about markets going up is for the long time investor, but they too can be fooled out of that conviction if they enter at the highs of the market, and cannot tolerate the downside from there.

So, no matter what type of trader you are, it is best to know what the news is saying in order to somewhat foretell which temperature to expect from the financial weather. Winds can blow hot or cold, how you're prepared will guarantee your survival. Nothing else matters if you're ready for both and the financial news is your weather predictor.

That of course does not mean that you have to hang onto each word they say, in fact, I would suggest that you listen only so you can understand the immediate market reaction, which usually reverses as the figures get digested by the market. In order to really know what is going on, read the whole article yourself and see how it relates to the other articles in the news of the day.

Yes, I guess I'm advocating some research of the longer term kind. Your own analysis born out of that research will guarantee that your will not be blown about by the whimsical breezes served up by many who state opinion without fact, or just read the headlines only.

Wednesday, January 2, 2013

Tweet ***** The Fiscal Cliff Rally? Not much can be said about this rally so far, it hit the breakout level then pulled back enough to make one wonder. Not holding the breakout mark makes it a relief not a conviction, so keep watching the price levels and let's wait until there are moves with more enthusiasm.

(Posts corrected to EST ( US Market Time Zone))

Wed 02 Jan 16:04 Markets are having a good time :) $DJIA finishes with an attitude: "Don't Stop Me Now!" at 13413 on the way to Mars, ready to explode? ♫ blip.fm/~1dm4pn

Wed 02 Jan 14:11 ~ $DJIA sideways, mentioned before & has to breakout & hold above 13340 for today's rally to be somewhat real 13320-13310 still test and watch. If it breaks below 13310, potential is down to 13265 below (expanded post)

Wed 02 Jan 11:48 ~ $DJIA testing 13320 once again see earlier post at this level for bounce possibility watch the 13310

About Me

a posse ad esse or from being able, to being

In trading as in living, We must see the possible in order to create the actual. Through a maze of charts, indicators and endless outlook chatter, we must create our own vision and from that actualize our possibilities. In short, create and realize our dreams.
With my experience and ability to visualize, I can help you realize yours.
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DISCLAIMER

Day Trading with Anni is a blog and website intended for education, entertainment and information only. The content provided herein is not to be construed as recommendations to buy or sell stocks of any kind. They are simply the opinions of the author. It is possible that the editor of this blog may own, buy, or sell stocks presented. All readers, traders, or investors should consult a qualified professional before trading any stock. The author is not an investment advisor. Any investments, trades, and/or speculations made in light of the ideas, opinions, and/or forecasts made by the author are committed at the reader's own risk, financial or otherwise.That said, all content is under copyright by the author.