Monday, January 23, 2012

February 1-2 Possible Snowfall

There is a potential for a storm in the February 1-2 timeframe, eerily similar in the timeframe to last year's blizzard in Chicago. The storm is even in a very strong stance, much like how strong the blizzard was last year. Considering how the pattern may be close to at least a partial change, I would not dispute the possibility of a storm in this timeframe.

The GFS Ensembles are showing a different story- one that I would trust more considering how bad the models have been this winter.

Hour 252 of the 12z GFS ENS.

Hour 264 of the 12z GFS ENS.

The GFS Ensembles still have a storm present going in the general same track, but keeps the lower Great Lakes warn throughout the storm event. Again, because the GFS has been so bad this winter I would trust the ensembles right now, but any ensemble or model is still uncertain because this is so long range.

If you look at the GFS long range model at hour 276 it looks as there might be a storm in the northeast Illinois and northern/northwest Indiana areas.Could your please tell me your opinions.I might be reading it wrong.

Im going out on the point and saying winter will not happen nao wont change ao wont change everything is staying positive and if it goes negative its only for a day so this winter is a bust we will all have to wait for winter 2012/2013 give up its over this year

Hey I came upon this site today and just wanted to know how many years of experience you have predicting the winter. I want a sense of how old you are and how accurate your predictions are based on how you have done in the past.

Hey Andrew, once again great work with storm totals on that last winter blast. I have a question for you? Do believe February will be the break out of winter storms in the great lakes region? I believe it will be pay back time. U can only run from winter so long.

Anonymous #1: You are entitled to your opinion. The best I can say is I hope that doesn't happen.

Anonymous #2: The models are usually fairly good- this winter, however, they are as bad as it gets.

Anonymous #3: I have been predicting winter forecasts for a few years now. As for verification, the 2010-2011 winter was a pretty good verification, but obviously this year's forecast has not fared well.

Anonymous #4: Thank you. I believe that February has at least a decent chance of getting a good winter blast in the US. The atmosphere, particularly the stratosphere, is acting erratically right now. We have to watch it for that reason. The NAO, AO are also in negative territory and are looking better.

Mike: Yes- the next few weeks look very interesting.

Anonymous #5: The age of posters is not something to be discussed on this blog.

Anonymous: Just as a general rule, I have found over the years that age does not matter- it matters if you know what you're talking about. There are indeed kids out there that know what they're talking about.

Hey ANONYMOUS.IT IS NONE OF YOUR BUSINESS HOW OLD ANDREW IS.THIS SITE IS FOR POSTING ABOUT WEATHER,NOT PEOPLE'S AGES.IF YOU WANT TO KNOW MY AGE,I'M 35 GOING ON 36 THIS MAY.SO ANOTHER WORDS,PLEASE STOP ASKING ANDREW HOW OLD HE IS.HE PROBABLY WON'T TELL YOU ANYWAY.I MYSELF ENJOY COMING TO THIS SITE FOR WEATHER INFO.NOT ASKING PEOPLE'S AGES.ANDREW,I HOPE YOU UNDERSTAND WHY I POSTED THIS POST.I'M TRYING TO GET IT THROUGH THE PERSON WHO'S ASKING HOW OLD YOU ARE.ANOTHER THING,YOU SHOULD PUT YOUR NAME AND QUIT HIDDING BEHIND ANONYMOUS.

That tells me, you are definitely under 15, probably closer to like 10-12. That's cool that you didn't want to say your exact age Andrew, I was just curious. But I knew you were a kid. Just wanted to find out for sure.

haha ok mike, guess that means you're better than me right? After all you have lived through many more snowstorms. Dang I'm so jealous. Gosh my life sucks. LOL. I like snow, but I'm just not as addicted to it as you guys. And plus, you have no idea how old I am. So you don't even know if that is true. Jeez I'm gonna have to move to Alaska now. hahahahaha

Anonymous, I'm going to have to ask you to stop discussing the whole ages deal and not be so sarcastic in general. This is purely a weather blog, not meant to be interrupted with sarcasm and irrelevant discussions.

I do understand, but something that you and even I may need to recognize is that this attention only feeds the trolls. I am by no means restricting you, but as for my part, I think i'm going to get off this post and let this person (who I have an idea who this person is) move along.

And Andrew...you don't know who I am. You have no way of knowing. Just had to say that as I missed your comment. I really wasn't trying to cause trouble. I was just curious to see how old you were to see how credible your site would be. Mike didn't have to jump in on our conversation. That got me a little angry. I'm done now. Nothing against you or this site. And no I'm not a troll.

Leave Andrew Mike and all the other posters alone because your making everyone mad by disrupting this post. Andrew has been very informative and has taught me alot in the last couple of months i have been coming here!

To those attacking Andrew, stop it. He knows more about weather than any of you who are attacking him. Just to warn you, this is coming from a senior meteorologist. Age is not everything. Doing well with forecasting is the most important thing. I will tell you one thing, we are loyal supporters and friends of Andrew and we will defend him. He runs this site better than many could ever. Age is NOT an issue. Skill is and Andrew has it. Thank you.

hi andrew.....just a little validation here. you posted about possible snows, feb 1-2 on the 23rd of january....well, hats off to you, our local guy just said lets be on the lookout for a decent snow maker, the end of this coming week.....thank you andrew, for all you do!!! you had it pegged 5 or so days earlier!

ShareThis

Privacy Policy

Attribution and Other Information

The Weather Centre is a nonprofit weather blog made to share weather information to others in a reporting and teaching environment. It is expected that attribution to images and quotes is given to the rightful owner of whatever images and quotes are used by The Weather Centre. In all actions of displaying images and quotes, it is done in a reporting way and with proper credit and attribution given, thus abiding by USC US Copyright Law Title 17, Chapter 1, §107.

---

If you find an image on this blog that you find to be in violation of copyright laws or offensive in any other way, please contact us by e-mail using the contact info at the top of this page, and request to have the image(s) taken down.

2010-2015 The Weather Centre

All Rights Reserved

Images provided in posts are obtained via Internet and are property of their respectful owners. Travel theme. Theme images by Airyelf. Powered by Blogger.