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Sunday, November 01, 2009

Target Practice: Week Eight in the NFL-By David Ortega For Football Reporters Online

It’s always tough to find the right receivers each week for your fantasy matchup. One of the keys is not just what a player has done, but in a lot of cases you have to consider the potential of a player when you look their matchup. Another factor that needs to be included into this equation is which players are getting their number called most.

Look Who’s Hot….Over the past two weeks there’s been no receiver as hot as the Cowboys wide receiver Miles Austin, but when you dig a little deeper this really shouldn’t be much of a surprise. Sure no one expected Austin to break out with 19 catches for 421 yards in his last two games, especially after he was targeted only four times in his first three. Over his last three games Austin has seen 31 balls thrown in his direction and with his apparent big-play ability, don’t expect this trend to change much. Austin is now a fantasy favorite in Dallas and looks like a solid WR2 going forward.

In case some of you have missed the bus, Chad Ochocinco is back as one of the elite receivers in the game. With a healthy quarterback Ochocinco is now amongst the leaders in receptions (39) and yards (573), but more importantly he’s being targeted at a heavy pace (64 targets this season) so don’t expect a drop in his numbers anytime soon.

Who’s worried….For those owners that might be worried about their stud receiver Roddy White, there is no cause for concern. Although his numbers may seem a little down from a year ago, it’s only a matter of time before he starts putting together those top five numbers we’ve seen the last two seasons. The signs are there if you look closely; White has managed to score in three straight games. And while he’s only had a total of 106 yards in his last two starts, his four games this season with at least 10 targets is a good indication that we can expect more soon from “Big Roddy.”

Another receiver from down south that could be a cause for concern for some owner should be no concern at all. Last season the Saints receiver Marques Colston was a major disappointment missing five games and starting just six. Colston was expected to follow up his huge 2007 season with another, but it did not pan out. This season Colston is healthy and a lot is expected of the Saints big receiver. So far his explosiveness has been sporadic simply because the Saints have so many weapons, but don’t be fooled. Colston is still the number one receiving option in the Bayou and his 21 targets the last two weeks should indicate such. With a touchdown in back to back starts, this coming Monday night matchup with Atlanta is looking very tasty, so owners should be licking their chops.

Keep your Eye on these gems…Making his NFL debut this past Sunday, rookie receiver Michael Crabtree wasted little time making an impact. Crabtree was targeted six times and caught five balls for 56 yards. The important key factor, Crabtree was targeted three times in the second half and caught all three passes from Alex Smith (the Niner’s new starting quarterback). With the switch at quarterback taking place Crabtree looks like a much better option with Smith throwing to him; keep your eye on the rookie.

Now that Kevin Curtis is out for a while, rookie receiver Jeremy Maclin will have a chance to earn his stripes. On Monday night Maclin was not spectacular, but his numbers were interesting. The rookie caught just five balls for 53 yards, but he was targeted by McNabb seven times. Over his past four games Maclin has seen a steady diet of passes in his direction averaging just over seven per game. We have yet to see the consistency, but he’s already shown the big game potential. Now that Curtis is down, Maclin can settle in and we could see more from this kid in the coming weeks.

Here is the breakdown for fantasy pass catchers (targets) this season;

In every one of my leagues my starting QB is in his bye week. And in every league I am picking up Detroit QB Matt Stafford and hoping that he and WR Calvin Johnson both start. The Lions have had two weeks to prepare for there week 8 opponent the St. Louis Rams. Except for the Washington game, the Rams have been blown out every week. Now if Stafford doesn’t play Culpepper could carry the load also. Other waiver wire QBs with decent match ups this week are M. Bulgar at those same Lions, V. Young at home against the Jaguars, and R. Fitzpatrick at home in a shoot out or blow out with Houston.

Coming completely out of left field, I will promote Tennessee Titans RB LenDale White. Surprised? Look at these scenarios that home come together for White this week. The Titans are at home after two weeks preparing for an opponent, after they were embarrassed by a pitiful performance in a blow out loss. Additionally, they are winless against an opponent they usually dominate, who beat them handily earlier this season. Lastly the Titans are starting a new QB this week and they should be leaning even heavier on the running game. As another alternative both Raiders backs could show up as long as the rest of the team can keep it close.

Devin Hester of the Chicago Bears is my WR this week. For some teams he may be an every week start but for some he is not. Hester is at home against a Cleveland Browns defense that is struggling on all levels. Hester participates on all those levels at least some in every game. Whether it be with a reception, a run, a wildcat pass, or even a return I have a feeling Hester will score at least one touchdown. The other WR I want to throw out there was almost my main guy this wee but I could not bring myself to do it, Terrell Owens. Owens has been a secondary option since Fitzpatrick took over for Edwards, but I got a feeling he shows up in a big way this weekend.

Since I’m going on instinct as much as, if not more than, stats this week I’ll throw Dustin Keller’s name into the mix. Keller started hot, but has dropped off almost completely these last few games. This weekend Keller’s NY Jets will play a Miami Dolphins team that they have already faced once this season in a tight game. The Dolphins run a ¾ defensive front. As I have stated before most ¾ teams can be hurt by tight ends down the middle of the field. For my second TE option I leave you with GB’s Donald Lee, If he doesn’t have to sit back and help pass protect, he could be effective.

I will go back to the Detroit Lions and St. Louis Rams game to get my Defense for this week. One of these two defenses should have a nice game, and because of the extra week of prep time I’ll go with the Lions. St. Louis’s O-line has struggled, their WRs are consistently hurt, and their QB seems to end up that way. Jim Swartz would like to use this game to give a glimpse into how his defense of the future will play. The Jaguars Titans game is another game where one of the defenses will show up, I’m picking the Titans but who knows.

As the season continues to progress fantasy owners are more and more likely committed to and locked in with their big-name fantasy studs like; Andre Johnson, Tom Brady, Randy Moss, and Adrian Peterson. With each passing week the concern is always knowing what players are making the grade and paying their dues.

We’re back again this week to tell it like it is and set the record straight, letting fantasy owners know which players are earning their keep and which are just bumming us out.

Here were the Studs (Earners) and Duds (bums) for Week 7;

The Earners (Studs) (Min 16 fantasy points)

These are not your normal every-week fantasy starters, but as well as these studs are playing they just might need to be. Fantasy owners need to keep watch of these “Earners” and in some cases get them in the lineup quick!

As often as the Texan’s quarterback Matt Schaub keeps cashing in, he’s going to find his name added to another list very quickly titled “Weekly Stud.” Against a very tough Niner’s defense Schaub passed for 264 yards and added two more touchdowns to his league leading total of 16. (22 fantasy points)

It seems the Cowboys quarterback Tony Romo had lost some of his fantasy appeal, but on Sunday against a very good Falcon’s pass rush he may have just gotten some of it back. Romo was solid completing 21 of 29 passes for 311 yards passing and three touchdowns. The Cowboy’s quarterback was also fleet of foot scrambling his way for another 31 yards. (33 fantasy points)

With the Jets Leon Washington going down on Sunday, open the door for rookie running back Shonn Greene. The kid from the University of Iowa toted the rock 19 times for 144 yards on the ground and cashed in twice for scores. (26 fantasy points)

Some of you may have thought he was on his way out, but it looks like Dolphins running back Ricky Williams still has plenty to do before he leaves the game. Against the Saints Williams only needed nine carries to rumble 80 yards and find the end-zone three times. (27 fantasy points)

Finally breaking out in 2009 as the Bear’s number one receiver, Devin Hester turned in a solid afternoon on Sunday against a pretty good Bengal’s secondary. Hester caught eight passes, scored a touchdown and recorded his first 100-yard receiving day in 2009. (16 fantasy points)

After watching his breakout performance in week six, no one expected Miles Austin to complete a repeat in week 7. That is exactly what Austin did this past Sunday catching six passes for 171 yards and two touchdowns. (29 fantasy points)

After his performance on Sunday, Niner’s tight end Vernon Davis will be officially move to the “starting fantasy tight end” list. Against the Texans Davis caught seven passes for 93 yards and three touchdowns. With the quarterback change in the bay area, this could become a regular occurrence for Davis; having a productive afternoon. (27 fantasy points)

These are your week 7 fantasy studs that did not live up to the hype and may require a second look before submitting your lineup in week 8.

All that money they spent to get quarterback Matt Cassel may not have been well spent when you look at his numbers from Sunday. Cassel only completed 10 of 25 passes for 97 yards and threw three interceptions. (five fantasy points)

On Monday night against a tough Eagles defense running back Clinton Portis was very ineffective on the ground. Portis carried the ball just 14 times and managed just 43 yards in a game that the Redskins fell behind quickly. (four fantasy points)

The Niner’s running back Frank Gore coming back from an ankle injury that forced him to miss a couple of games, couldn’t shake the rust on Sunday against the Texans. A relatively ineffective runner, Gore netted just 47 yards of offense on 13 carries and two receptions.

The Cowboys ferocious pass rush on Sunday disrupted the Falcons air attack and limited the number of looks that went in Tony Gonzalez’s direction. The tight end caught just four passes for 37 yards against in week 7. (three fantasy points)

One of the Bear’s best pass receiver’s continues to struggle out of the gate. Tight end Greg Olsen managed four receptions on Sunday, but could only muster 24 yards. (two fantasy points)

The Jet’s second year tight end Dustin Keller was expected to be a key component to the passing game, but over the past couple of weeks he’s look more like a forgotten piece. Keller managed just one catch for 26 yards against the Raiders on Sunday. (two fantasy points)

So much for Roy E. Williams filling the shoes of T.O.; it looks like Miles Austin wears that size. While Williams continues to disappoint with just one grab for 16 yards on Sunday, owners need to consider keeping him on the bench.

More Duds that may or may not be starting in your lineups every week, earning at least a mention for their poor production last week include; Eli Manning (3-Ints), Jay Cutler (3-Ints), Terrell Owens (13-yds), Braylon Edwards (14-yds), and Kellen Winslow (9-yds)

Don’t double take, because Chicago Bears receiver Devin Hester has apprehended the title of this week’s fantasy sleeper.

Devin Hester has turned himself into more than just a dangerous return-man. In previous years he was merely a player that you knew not to kick to. Well the tide has turned. Lining up as the Bears #1 receiver, Hester is perhaps the biggest deep threat in the NFL.

Coming off his first 100-yard game (receiving that is) in his career, knowing Hester, he won’t slow down one second against the Browns this Sunday. His receptions have increased in recent games, not one corner can keep up with him, and he’s facing a defense that’s allowed more big plays than any other team in the NFL; there’s not much working against him.

How much will he be on the field? More than two thirds of the game is my guess. The Cleveland Browns have only scored 4 offensive touchdowns all year, so the Bears offense shouldn’t have any trouble getting the ball back.

So you better improve your 40 time, because Chicago Bears receiver Devin Hester will be blazing down the sideline this Sunday.

WILDCAT THREATENS JETS IN ROUND TWO WITH MIAMIby TJ Rosenthal-for Football Reporters Online

It was only weeks ago that the 3-1 Jets invaded Miami with perhaps the NFL fiercest defense at the time. The desperate 1-3 Dolphins who weeks prior lost QB Chad Pennington for the season, were needing to find themselves in a hurry. What ensued was a monstrous 413 yard Dolphin output, spearheaded by the Ronnie Brown-Ricky Williams led Wildcat. This reinvented ancient formation, where direct snaps go straight to the running back, was re-introduced to the league by Miami in 2008. The Dolphins won 31-27 that night in the waning seconds, on WR Braylon Edwards Jet debut. The loss dropped the Jets from their early season perch, humbling Gang Green in the process. The win gave Miami life at 2-3.Since then the landscape for both clubs has changed drastically.

For the Jets, run stopping killer NG Kris Jenkins and big play threat, 2008 special teams All Pro Leon Washington are gone for the year. However, on the bright side, rookie RB Shonn Greene has since entered the Jet backfield scene. Last week the rookie third rounder rushed to the tune of 119 yards and 2 TDS, and will be asked to keep the NFLs top run game, averaging 185 yards a game, humming (Miami is second actually at 170 yards a game).

Expect more of a game management type approach from QB Mark Sanchez the rest of the way. His five interception debacle in the loss to Buffalo following the Miami defeat has made offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer rethink his plans for the rookie. The new blueprint was on display out in Oakland featuring Rex Ryan's oft used term "ground and pound." This style of running play after play until it is stopped, helped then rookie QB Joe Flacco come along nicely last year in Baltimore. Ryan, the Raven defensive coordinator at the time took notice. The Ravens were one game short of the Super Bowl in 2008. With the Jets atop the NFL on the ground, aiming for less responsibility from another rookie, Sanchez the former USC star, may just be the right formula at this point.

The defense without Jenkins, will now have to rely on it's linebackers who, led by perhaps the most talented of the bunch Calvin Pace, led the unit in a 38-0 shutout against Oakland. Former Jet return man Justin Miller, who had some special teams success just a few years back for the Jets, was re signed this week to replace Washington on kickoff returns.

Miami entered their bye week feeling sky high fresh off of the heels of the Jet win. The layoff allowed them to buy some time for new starting QB, the second year man out of Michigan, strong armed Chad Henne. The extra week seemed to be working for Henne and the Fish last Sunday. The Dolphins were in control of the high powered undefeated Saints 24-3 at home with only seconds to go in the first half. A late Drew Brees rushing TD though cut it to 24-10 at the break. Then it all fell apart for Tony Sparano's crew on the way to a 46-34 defeat. Now at 2-4, the Fish find themselves suddenly in last place in the AFC East and once again, in desperation mode.

The Fish, like the Jets, are also in the midst of some key alterations. Highly touted WR Ted Ginn Jr, who caught a crucial bomb from Henne for a TD against the Jets, is now apparently in the dog house for having the dropsies. Rookie Brian Hartline, a Wes Welker type WR with hands, speed and simple reliability, will be taking over on the outside. Hartline's ability to work the short and medium pass routes will pose a different coverage threat for the Jet secondary than Ginn who is most dangerous on long routes outside the numbers.

Vontae Davis will replace the injured Will Allen at cornerback on Sunday. Coupled with rookie starter Sean Smith, Miami will now roll out two rookie corners to start on Sunday. The Jet passing game which has been non existent the past two weeks, may benefit, especially if WR Jerricho Cotchery returns from a hamstring injury that has kept the starting wideout sidelined the past two weeks.

As for the two headed monster of Williams and Brown, the pair ran well against the eight ranked rushing defense of the Saints, with over 100 yards combined and 4 TDs. Williams had 3 of them, showing off his speed on various occasions. The obvious key to Sunday will be whether or not Rex Ryan has found a way to stop the Wildcat from moving the chains and eating the clock as it did against the Jets weeks ago.

Perhaps Ryan will compensate for the loss of Jenkins by utilizing more secondary and linebacker personnel speed packages up front. Putting the Fish in second and long situations will prevent Miami Offensive Coordinator Dan Henning from relying on the Wildcat in order sustain drives. The Jets, as they hoped to achieve weeks ago, will again try to leave Miami in third and longs, forcing Henne, not Ricky and Ronnie to beat them. Henne was able to consistently handle third downs the last time these two met. However alot of Henne's success was due to the success of the Wildcat on first and second down.

The ease of the Jets 38-0 laugher in the Black Hole over the Raiders where the Jets typically have troubles, was epitomized by Sanchez's eating of a hot dog on the bench late in the game. The win stopped a three game skid, restoring some of the confidence and swagger lost during the losing streak. The win was not however, an accurate depiction of how easily things will come from here on out. Up 21-0 early in the first half, Sanchez had little need to make too many tough plays with his arm and legs. The ground game, despite the loss of Washington in the 1st quarter with a broken leg for the season, ate the Raider defense alive all day.

Should Sanchez be put to the test on Sunday, expect speedster WR David Clowney to get some looks. His big play day (4-76yds) was capped by a 33 yard TD grab. This in place of the injured WR Jerricho Cotchery who is practicing again, after having missed two straight games with a hamstring injury. If Braylon Edwards was quiet last week then TE Dustin Keller was invisible. Both were not on the same page with Sanchez. The receiving corps needs to begin to step up despite the fact that the Jets are quickly becoming a run oriented offense.

A win against their bitter AFC East rivals would put the Jets at 5-3 going into their bye week. With games against the Pats, Falcons, Colts and AFC central leading Bengals awaiting them in the second half, the Jets need to beat the last place Dolphins at home. Otherwise reaching the playoffs becomes a daunting task. Shutting down the Wildcat is not easy to do. For the Jets, just slowing it down is essential if they want to change the outcome that they encountered in week 5.

The last time that the Dolphins exited the Meadowlands, in December of 2008, former Jet Chad Pennington helped lead Miami off the field and into the tunnel with the AFC East title. The loss, capping a Jet-like season ending nosedive that saw Gang Green go from 8-3 to 9-7, put an end to the brief Eric Mangini-Brett Favre era. Sunday, the Jets can somewhat repay the favor by sending the Fish back to Miami half out of water and clinging to life.

THREE KEYS TO MIAMI:

STOP THE WILDCAT: Stopping it means slow it down. The Jets can't let Ronnie and Ricky gain a bunch on first downs all day this time around. If they do, expect another long day.

THE INVISIBLE TWINS NEED TO RE EMERGE: Braylon, Dustin, where are you?Edwards was brought here to stretch the field and force coverage to roll his way. Fair enough but why is Keller not feeding off of the addition of one of the top big wideouts in the NFL? Maybe it's too soon. Edwards got here only three weeks ago. Still, just a little production from those two will help keep fast paced LB's Channing Crowder and Joey Porter from keying in solely on Thomas Jones and Shonn Greene. The dependable Jerricho Cotchery's may be back. Miami starting two rookie cornerbacks may help as well. It's time for the Jet passing game to re emerge a bit.

JUSTIN MILLER AND MIKE WESTHOFF : Miller, the former Jet return man, who had some great moments in 2006, was re signed days after Washington was put on IR. I bet he's got alot to prove since being released by the Raiders earlier this month. Wouldn't it be nice to catch lightning in a bottle from a guy who has to be playing with a chip on his shoulder? It would only be natural if Miller came out to prove so many that they were wrong about him. Miller is reunited with Special Teams coaching legend Mike Westhoff who is on fire calling those fake punts in 2009. Could there be another trick play on the way? Does it involve Miller?