Sankranti Coup? Toppling HDK govt may very well be an uphill job for BJP

BENGALURU: For the reason that Congress-JD(S) coalition authorities got here to energy, the opposition BJP has been repeatedly setting deadlines to topple it, however every time the plan has failed.

If grapevine is to be believed, the most recent deadline is January 17, put up Makara Sankranti. However the query is will the saffron get together succeed? Will it get the required help from MLAs of the ruling coalition? Going by the numbers within the meeting and the prevailing political scenario, the chances are closely stacked towards the BJP, making its possibilities of tasting success very distant.

As of now, the Congress-JD(S) mix has 116 members (excluding the speaker) within the 224-member home and the BJP has 104 MLAs. Two independents and a lone BSP MLA are with the ruling coalition although there are fissures of their relationship, particularly after the exit of impartial MLA R Shankar and BSP MLA N Mahesh from the cupboard. This takes the coalition’s quantity to 119.

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Rumours counsel the BJP plans to cut back the overall energy of the meeting to 207 in order that with its 104 MLAs it’ll have a easy majority. For this to occur, the get together must get not less than 16 MLAs of the coalition to resign. Even when the 2 independents and the BSP MLA help the BJP, it’ll nonetheless want not less than 10 MLAs to resign to topple the federal government.

“First, it is extremely tough to get so many MLAs to resign, that too simply after seven months of their election,” mentioned political analyst Mahadev Prakash. “Second, even when the BJP manages to get 20 MLAs to resign, the distinction between the BJP and the Congress-JD(S) mix can be simply 4 until the bypolls to the 20 seats are held. In that case, the BJP authorities may even be on a sticky wicket. So, I don’t suppose the BJP will ever succeed.”

The Congress-JD(S) mix can be mentioned to have recognized 5 to 6 BJP MLAs who may very well be potential turncoats if the BJP will get into the poaching enterprise.

“There is no such thing as a doubt that a few of our MLAs are sad, however I don’t suppose they are going to muster the braveness to resign as there isn’t a assure that the coalition authorities will fall even when BJP makes 15-17 MLAs resign,” mentioned a senior Congress MLA.

Concurring along with his views, a BJP MLA mentioned the get together’s nationwide management isn’t all in favour of toppling the federal government and has requested the state leaders to deal with preparations for the overall election. However an in depth confidante of state BJP chief BS Yeddyurappa’s technique is two-pronged.

One is to topple the federal government and type a BJP authorities. If that isn’t doable, then he plans to create a constitutional disaster and drive a mid-term election.

“Yeddyurappa firmly believes the BJP stands a greater likelihood to win if meeting elections are held alongside Lok Sabha polls,” the confidante mentioned. “He’s making an attempt to persuade nationwide leaders on these strains.”