Non-farm payrolls are due to be announced at 1.30pm London Time / 8.30am New York, and the clunky old Bloomberg economists’ consensus says 230,000 new jobs were created in November, against 214,000 a month earlier. Read more

A curious report. Consensus was for 197k. But the unemployment rate has contracted sharply. At pixel, markets were mighty confused. In London the Footsie, having traded 75 points higher in anticipation of a strong print, quickly lost almost half its gain. In Chicago, equity index futures pointed to a flat opening on Wall Street.

Cardiff writes mostly about US macroeconomic issues, with daily excursions into other topics about which he claim no expertise. Before Alphaville, Cardiff spent a little more than two years as a reporter at Dow Jones Financial News covering investment banking, asset management, and private equity. Along the way he has written freelance pieces on a variety of other topics from behavioural psychology to Muay Thai, the latter also being a personal interest that involves frequently getting kicked in the shins (and torso, and head).

Cardiff writes mostly about US macroeconomic issues, with daily excursions into other topics about which he claim no expertise. Before Alphaville, Cardiff spent a little more than two years as a reporter at Dow Jones Financial News covering investment banking, asset management, and private equity. Along the way he has written freelance pieces on a variety of other topics from behavioural psychology to Muay Thai, the latter also being a personal interest that involves frequently getting kicked in the shins (and torso, and head).

The post-winter slowdown that the US has experienced the past three years had been showing signs of re-emerging in 2013, but Friday’s employment report complicates the story.

The BLS announced that payrolls climbed by 165,000 in April, but perhaps more importantly the revisions to prior months revealed that February and March were better than originally thought, having created 114,000 more jobs than had been posted in the earlier reports. The February revisions brought the total for that month to an impressive 332,000. Read more

Cardiff writes mostly about US macroeconomic issues, with daily excursions into other topics about which he claim no expertise. Before Alphaville, Cardiff spent a little more than two years as a reporter at Dow Jones Financial News covering investment banking, asset management, and private equity. Along the way he has written freelance pieces on a variety of other topics from behavioural psychology to Muay Thai, the latter also being a personal interest that involves frequently getting kicked in the shins (and torso, and head).

Another month, another payrolls number in the 150k range — except this one comes with big positive revisions to the prior two months. The unemployment rate ticked up slightly, but careful with this report, as it includes an updated population estimate in the household survey, and also the annual benchmarking in the establishment survey to reflect a new count of total jobs. Read the explanations at the bottom of the release for detail.

Cardiff writes mostly about US macroeconomic issues, with daily excursions into other topics about which he claim no expertise. Before Alphaville, Cardiff spent a little more than two years as a reporter at Dow Jones Financial News covering investment banking, asset management, and private equity. Along the way he has written freelance pieces on a variety of other topics from behavioural psychology to Muay Thai, the latter also being a personal interest that involves frequently getting kicked in the shins (and torso, and head).

Consider all that has either influenced the US economy or at least made big headlines in the last two years — winter accelerations seemingly crashing into spring slowdowns; a debt ceiling debate coinciding with a debt downgrade; a supply chain disruption caused by the Japanese earthquake; commodity and gas price spikes; fiscal drag at both the federal and state levels; a dramatically evolving monetary policy framework; an election and fiscal cliff battle; a perpetual near-disaster in Europe and slowing emerging market growth.

In that light, the following line in today’s payrolls report is worth a quick remark: Read more

Cardiff writes mostly about US macroeconomic issues, with daily excursions into other topics about which he claim no expertise. Before Alphaville, Cardiff spent a little more than two years as a reporter at Dow Jones Financial News covering investment banking, asset management, and private equity. Along the way he has written freelance pieces on a variety of other topics from behavioural psychology to Muay Thai, the latter also being a personal interest that involves frequently getting kicked in the shins (and torso, and head).

Very close to estimates and roughly in line with the prior two months. The highlights from the report:

Nonfarm payroll employment rose by 155,000 in December, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 7.8 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment increased in health care, food services and drinking places, construction, and manufacturing. Read more

Joseph joined FT Alphaville way back in March 2010. He likes all the politically and legally fiddly bits of finance. He also likes credit, rates, global macro, tail risk, and all that stuff. (You should email him story ideas. He’ll take anything.)

The attack diagram is shown in Figure 2. The diagram shows the various high-level attack paths an adversary might use to achieve the nightmare consequences. The adversary is assumed to be an external attacker (non-insider) for all the attacks considered in this assessment (as per the red team constraints and ROE)…

Kate is FT AV’s Asia Correspondent. She joined FT Alphaville in mid-2011 after carrying out various roles in the FT’s London office since 2005: interactive editor, companies reporter, and founding editor of the FT’s Energy Source blog.

Cardiff writes mostly about US macroeconomic issues, with daily excursions into other topics about which he claim no expertise. Before Alphaville, Cardiff spent a little more than two years as a reporter at Dow Jones Financial News covering investment banking, asset management, and private equity. Along the way he has written freelance pieces on a variety of other topics from behavioural psychology to Muay Thai, the latter also being a personal interest that involves frequently getting kicked in the shins (and torso, and head).

Cardiff writes mostly about US macroeconomic issues, with daily excursions into other topics about which he claim no expertise. Before Alphaville, Cardiff spent a little more than two years as a reporter at Dow Jones Financial News covering investment banking, asset management, and private equity. Along the way he has written freelance pieces on a variety of other topics from behavioural psychology to Muay Thai, the latter also being a personal interest that involves frequently getting kicked in the shins (and torso, and head).

Warning: we start by rambling about a bunch of stuff that may not interest anyone besides methodology geeks. If you want to jump straight to how this morning’s BLS employment report might be affected by seasonality issues, scroll down to the next section in bold.

On the familiar list of challenges faced by the US economy last year were the reemergence of Europe as a perpetual near-disaster, the commodities price spike, supply chain disruptions from the Japanese earthquake, the S&P downgrade, and a remarkable streak of policy stupidity (budget showdown, debt ceiling debate, etc). Read more

Cardiff writes mostly about US macroeconomic issues, with daily excursions into other topics about which he claim no expertise. Before Alphaville, Cardiff spent a little more than two years as a reporter at Dow Jones Financial News covering investment banking, asset management, and private equity. Along the way he has written freelance pieces on a variety of other topics from behavioural psychology to Muay Thai, the latter also being a personal interest that involves frequently getting kicked in the shins (and torso, and head).

Cardiff writes mostly about US macroeconomic issues, with daily excursions into other topics about which he claim no expertise. Before Alphaville, Cardiff spent a little more than two years as a reporter at Dow Jones Financial News covering investment banking, asset management, and private equity. Along the way he has written freelance pieces on a variety of other topics from behavioural psychology to Muay Thai, the latter also being a personal interest that involves frequently getting kicked in the shins (and torso, and head).

An 80,000 rise in non-farm payrolls is disappointing, but something exorcised the devil from the report’s underlying details, which were better than hoped.

There were big upward revisions to the prior two months, with September now showing a gain of 158,000 and August, which originally came in flat with zero growth, now posting a gain of 104,000. The average duration of unemployment fell, and U-6, a broader measure that includes people marginally attached to the labour force and part-time workers, also declined. Read more

Cardiff writes mostly about US macroeconomic issues, with daily excursions into other topics about which he claim no expertise. Before Alphaville, Cardiff spent a little more than two years as a reporter at Dow Jones Financial News covering investment banking, asset management, and private equity. Along the way he has written freelance pieces on a variety of other topics from behavioural psychology to Muay Thai, the latter also being a personal interest that involves frequently getting kicked in the shins (and torso, and head).

Cardiff writes mostly about US macroeconomic issues, with daily excursions into other topics about which he claim no expertise. Before Alphaville, Cardiff spent a little more than two years as a reporter at Dow Jones Financial News covering investment banking, asset management, and private equity. Along the way he has written freelance pieces on a variety of other topics from behavioural psychology to Muay Thai, the latter also being a personal interest that involves frequently getting kicked in the shins (and torso, and head).

Some reaction to better than expected non-farm July payroll numbers, following an August sell-off, from Reuters:

“Wall Street breathed a sigh of relief because the employment news was bad, but not terrible. The July data were a mixed bag. The non-farm payrolls figures were better than expected and the revision to the prior month was better than expected, but the unemployment rate rose. That’s why you’re seeing the S&P rallying. Read more

Joseph joined FT Alphaville way back in March 2010. He likes all the politically and legally fiddly bits of finance. He also likes credit, rates, global macro, tail risk, and all that stuff. (You should email him story ideas. He’ll take anything.)

Friday’s nonfarm payrolls release is likely to report that jobs rose 90,000 in June, up from the anaemic 54,000 posted in May, says Reuters from a survey of economists conducted last week. Jobless rates were expected to remain at 9.1 per cent. Bloomberg’s survey predicts 105,000 with a 9.1 per cent jobless rate, with forecasts in the estimates it collected ranging from 40,000 to 175,000. Falls in the cost of fuel likely made it cheaper to hire in June, with May’s shock deceleration chalked up to supply chain disruption from the Japanese earthquake, which has diminished.

The consensus was for a reading of around 150,000, following a dire week of US data releases. The unemployment rate is now at 9.1 per cent. Estimates for the last two months were also revised down: for March from +221,000 to +194,000 and for April from +244,000 to +232,000. Read more

Cardiff writes mostly about US macroeconomic issues, with daily excursions into other topics about which he claim no expertise. Before Alphaville, Cardiff spent a little more than two years as a reporter at Dow Jones Financial News covering investment banking, asset management, and private equity. Along the way he has written freelance pieces on a variety of other topics from behavioural psychology to Muay Thai, the latter also being a personal interest that involves frequently getting kicked in the shins (and torso, and head).

Our takeaway from the April employment report is that its two surveys — of households and of establishments — finally converged a bit, as was probably inevitable.

For many months now, the household survey had been painting a much better jobs picture than the establishment survey, with total employment (measured in the household survey) well outpacing payrolls growth (from the establishments). Read more

Cardiff writes mostly about US macroeconomic issues, with daily excursions into other topics about which he claim no expertise. Before Alphaville, Cardiff spent a little more than two years as a reporter at Dow Jones Financial News covering investment banking, asset management, and private equity. Along the way he has written freelance pieces on a variety of other topics from behavioural psychology to Muay Thai, the latter also being a personal interest that involves frequently getting kicked in the shins (and torso, and head).

Tracy Alloway used to be deputy editor of FT Alphaville. Here she learned the details of derivatives, the absurdities of accounting and the various structures of ... erm ... structured finance. She now covers big US banks for the FT paper, including Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley. She pops up on FT Alphaville every once in a while.

Cardiff writes mostly about US macroeconomic issues, with daily excursions into other topics about which he claim no expertise. Before Alphaville, Cardiff spent a little more than two years as a reporter at Dow Jones Financial News covering investment banking, asset management, and private equity. Along the way he has written freelance pieces on a variety of other topics from behavioural psychology to Muay Thai, the latter also being a personal interest that involves frequently getting kicked in the shins (and torso, and head).

Jobs and oil: investors will need the ocular dexterity of Marty Feldman to keep a close eye on Friday’s two prime market catalysts, the FT’s global market overview reports. The always eagerly anticipated US payrolls numbers are set to provide the day’s crucial data point. They are due for release at 1330 GMT and consensus is for an increase of 185,000, according to Reuters. But throughout the global session, investors will also be wary of the oil price — now back above $115 a barrel — which will doubtless be driven by reports of fighting in Libya and civil unrest elsewhere in the region, with Friday usually the day when tensions are at their height. For now, though, the mood was upbeat, with the FTSE All-World index up 0.3 per cent and US stock futures marginally firmer. This was a carry-over from Thursday, when better-than-expected US data — and some handy geopolitical risk amnesia — helped spur a 1.7 per cent rally on Wall Street.

Joseph joined FT Alphaville way back in March 2010. He likes all the politically and legally fiddly bits of finance. He also likes credit, rates, global macro, tail risk, and all that stuff. (You should email him story ideas. He’ll take anything.)

Nonfarm payrolls likely grew by 145,000 in January, following December’s 103,000 gain — but recent snowstorms may throw the figures and jobless rates probably increased, according to Reuters’ survey of economists. The edging up of the jobless rate to 9.5 per cent from 9.4 per cent would do little to dissuade the Federal Reserve from ending quantitative easing too early. Bloomberg’s collation of forecasts ranges from a 5,000 decrease to a gain of 230,000.

Tracy Alloway used to be deputy editor of FT Alphaville. Here she learned the details of derivatives, the absurdities of accounting and the various structures of ... erm ... structured finance. She now covers big US banks for the FT paper, including Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley. She pops up on FT Alphaville every once in a while.