California’s new primary system, in which the top two vote-getters advance to the general election regardless of political party, did not stimulate voter turnout much in 2012 but may have led to slightly better participation among independents, according to a study released this week.

It is difficult to base future predictions on just one election, but the report from the Public Policy Institute of California suggested that the state may continue to see declining numbers of primary votes cast, regardless of what system is used.

“California’s new top-two primary failed to produce the increase in turnout that many had hoped for, and there is little evidence that open primaries in other states have fared any better,” the report said. “Independents appear to be fickle primary voters, inclined to participate only when a ballot includes a close race.”

The top-two system, which voters approved as part of Proposition 14 in 2010, is designed in part to set up more competitive November elections. This year, in two races important for South Bay voters — the 26th state Senate District and the 33rd Congressional District — it is possible, and perhaps even likely, that two Democrats will advance to the general election.

Democrats Ted Lieu, Matt Miller and Wendy Greuel are favorites in the House race, while Democrats Amy Howorth, Sandra Fluke and Ben Allen are considered top-tier candidates in the state Senate race.

In the past, in many Los Angeles-area races, the winner of the Democratic primary would waltz to victory in the general election. But now, both the primary and general races should be competitive.

Some had hoped that tighter races would bring more voters to the polls for both primaries and general election races. But the report notes that overall primary turnout has declined in recent years, and that there is no reason to believe this trend will reverse. The good news? California still has relatively good participation.

“The state’s primary turnout has been falling, to be sure, yet even with the decline it remains among the highest in the nation,” said the report, written by Eric McGhee, a research fellow at the institute.

Scott Lay, a Davis-based political analyst and publisher of AroundtheCapitol.com, said there is a subset of voters who only vote in general elections, and that the new system probably will never change their habits. He said voter participation likely will range from 25 to 35 percent in the June 3 primary.

“These are voters that are used to voting in general elections,” Lay said. “They are not necessarily passionate about making the choices about who is going to be on that general election ballot.”

McGhee also found that two other voting law changes designed to promote turnout — online registration and same-day registration — also probably don’t stimulate voter turnout. Online registration is now available, while California Secretary of State Debra Bowen has said same-day registration could be available by 2016.

To some extent, McGhee found, the size of the primary turnout depends more on the perceived competitive nature of the races on the ballot than anything else.

“Compared to turnout in general elections, primary turnout is driven far more by the dynamics of individual candidate races and the presence or absence of initiatives on the ballot,” he wrote.

But even in the 33rd House District, a competitive race with many top-tier candidates, Lay said he is not sure that participation will spike.

“I do think that the profile of the 33rd and the choices available will increase voter participation some,” he said. “But your disengaged voters aren’t going to flood to the polls as if there were an issue on the ballot, like marijuana legalization, that stirred passion. There’s not much passion in that race.”

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