In brief

Tensions over the 2020 political succession and post-conflict reconciliation will dominate politics. The relatively wide backing of the president, Alassane Ouattara, will mitigate threats to political order, although periodic mutinies in the army and strikes will stoke some volatility. The economy will be supported by high investment, helped by the government's pro-business stance. Average real GDP growth will be above 6% in 2019-23.