Ok, so last year it was Fernando Alonso and Kimi Raikkonen. No other driver’s moves could be sorted out until those two had decided and announced what they were doing. Then it was Rosberg, Kubica, Button, Kovalainen and Barrichello.

So who is it this year? Ok, so there are a few less seast available this year, but who will set the merry go-round off?

Looking at seats certain to not be changed.

McLaren – Button, Hamilton

Mercedes – Rosberg

Red Bull – Vettel, Webber

Ferrari – Massa, Alonso

Renault – Kubica

Williams – Barrichello

Force India –

Toro Rosso – Buemi, Alguersuari

Lotus – Kovalainen, Trulli

HRT –

Sauber – Kobayashi, Perez

Virgin –

So the most important man to the line up for 2011 is Adrian Sutil. He could drive for Mercedes should Schumacher retire, Williams if Hulkenberg or Maldonado don’t get the seat, Renault if Petrov goes or even stay at Force India.

For me, I can’t wait to see where he goes, and according to autosport, he is deciding his future in the next few days!

I’d say Petrov really sets everything off or well his boss does I they decide to sack him then everything (bar Williams should follow on). Renault are waiting on him probably and maybe not Sutil but it’s not like last year where we absolutely knew Fernando would trigger it.

I usually couldn’t care less about Sutil if I’m honest unless he takes Petrov’s or Hulk’s seats and they end up without a drive then I’d just be annoyed :P I know he has quite a few fans on here and I’m probably overlooking him so I hope he does sort something soon just for some gossip and so his fans on here can have something to smile about.

I don’t think a driver will set it off as much as teams will. The two fastest cars that haven’t confirmed line ups for next year are Renault and Williams, so once we hear announcements from those teams we’ll know a lot more.

Webber wins the championship and retires, Rosberg jumps ship to Red Bull, Massa is kicked off Ferrari and ends up on FI as Sutil moves to Renault. Petrov downgraded to Lotus and forcing Trulli to retirement. Raikonnen goes to Mercedes and Ferrari hires Quick Nick to help Alonso out while trying to fullfil his long date dream of being champion even if it turns out to be at the 40’s.

If Renault drop Petrov, it frees the seat for Sutil or Glock, which in turn frees seats for di Resta, or d’Ambrosio or Chandhok.

If Williams drop Hulkenburg Maldonaldo will get his place but Nico could steal that Renault seat if it’s open, bump out Liuzzi of FI and team up with di Resta, or set back the chances of a current/new rookie getting into a seat.

If Schumacher leaves then it’s anyone’s game. Frankly I’d love to see Webber move to Ferrari if he wins the championship, swap for Massa who goes to Red Bull who are then amazed when he starts beating Vettel. But that’s very fanciful.

Petrov holds the key to the merry-go-round, and I don’t believe the Lotus (or whatever they’re going to be called) seats are fixed with Kovalainen and Trulli.

The engine tie-up between Lotus and Renault could mean Kova goes to Renault as part of the deal. Trulli hasn’t really impressed so I can also see him getting squeezed out; that means two seats available at Lotus. Maldonado looks like he’ll end up at Williams in the future so might end up cutting his teeth at HRT as part of their tie-in.. which would be good for HRT, considering his funding. I’d like to see Klien come in as his partner for technical development. Senna is the puzzle – he seems to have gotten his drive on the strength of his name, so wonder if he might lose his drive altogether, or end up at Lotus (possibly alongside Petrov?!).

Liuzzi and di Resta look like a straight-swap at FI because Liuzzi is just spectacularly inconsistent. Glock looks desperate to get out of Virgin because he’s a fast driver in a slow car and di Grassi will lose his seat because he’s a slow driver in a slow car – they need the money that d’Ambrosio brings. Glock looks stranded until Sutil moves, though.

If the van der Garde story is correct, I’m prety sure it will mean that van der Garde will join d’Ambrosio at Virgin. That will send Glock into Petrov’s Renault seat. Di Resta should be replacing Liuzzi at FI, and as much as I hate to say it, Hulkenberg will be kicked out of Williams in favour of PDVSA….I mean Maldonado. The other teams line ups should say the same unless Webbo decides to retire as WDC, which would probably lead to a promotion to RBR for Buemi or Alguersuari.

The only way I can see Hulk staying at Williams is if Maldonado goes to HRT to partner Senna as a result of the technical partnership between the teams. Alternatively the Hulk could be downgraded to HRT with PDVSA…I mean Maldonado, taking the second Williams seat.

I don’t believe we’ll see many interesting changes this year to be honest. The top four teams are pretty much locked out… only Renault might possibly offer a good seat. 2012 will be cool to see though, with Webber retiring and Massa likely leaving Ferrari.