Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)

000
AXPZ20 KNHC 180311
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
228 UTC Sun Feb 18 2018
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.
Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0300 UTC.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
A surface trough extends SW from the Pacific coast of Costa Rica
at 10N85W to 06N90W TO 04N100W where scatterometer winds
indicate a transition to an ITCZ, that continues W-NW from
04N100W to 06N120W to 07N140W. No significant convection is
noted.
...DISCUSSION...
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
A gentle variable breeze continues around a weak N to S
orientated trough analyzed between 115W and 118W. There is a
chance a weak surface low will form along the trough near
26N116W tonight and persist through Sun. A moderate to fresh N
breeze is currently observed elsewhere E of the trough to along
105W. A cold front will sweep quickly E across the area N of
28N tonight through Mon night eroding the weak low and its
parent trough. A post-frontal ridge will set up from 23N116W to
18N107W by Mon evening as high pressure strengthens resulting in
a fresh to strong NW breeze spreading SE across the waters W of
the Baja Norte on Mon, accompanied by NW swell building seas to 8
to 13 ft. The pressure gradient will relax some on Tue.
Gulf of California: Strong SW-W winds will develop across the
waters from 29.5N to 31N on Sun evening in association with a
cold front. The strong to near gale winds will clock to the NW
behind the front and persist through Mon night.
Gulf of Tehuantepec: High pressure across the Gulf of Mexico
will support fresh to strong northerly surges through the Gulf
of Tehuantepec through Sun night, with these strong northerly
winds resuming on Thu.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Gulf of Papagayo: Strong to occasionally near gale force NE
winds will continue to pulse through and downstream of the Gulf
of Papagayo through the upcoming week, with seas building to 9
ft as far SW as 10N91W.
Gulf of Panama: Fresh nocturnal N winds expected through Thu
night.
Elsewhere, gentle to moderate offshore flow will prevail N of
09N while light to gentle SW winds forecast S of 09N.
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
A broad ridge covers the discussion waters N of the ITCZ and W
of 120W, with 6 to 8 ft seas in mixing swell. These seas will
gradually subside through Sun, then build again beginning Sun
night as strong trades develop across the tropical waters W of
130W while strong N winds spread S across the northern waters in
the wake of a cold front sweeping E across the Baja Peninsula.
$$
Formosa