Over and over, in a dozen or more variations, the four GOP Congress members are framed as surrogates for President Donald Trump.

The strategy is clear: All four districts voted for Hillary Clinton last year and Democrats think they can win the congressional seats next year if they tap into the distaste for the controversial commander in chief.

“In terms of getting Democrats to the polls, it’s a winner,” said Raphael Sonenshein, executive director of CSU Los Angeles’ Pat Brown Institute of Public Affairs. “But in terms of building a campaign around it, it may not work.”

That’s because each of the four Republicans — Issa, Walters, Ed Royce and Dana Rohrabacher — has served in elected office for at least 16 years, making them familiar names in their districts with political identities apart from Trump. While its advantage is shrinking, the GOP still has the edge in voter registration in each district. And voters last year showed that they made a distinction between the GOP incumbents, whom they reelected, and the Republican nominee, whom they rejected.

Democrats are undeterred.

Trump’s election has inspired an opposition groundswell of local activism, with weekly rallies targeting Congress members in each of the four districts. Of the 11 Democrats to declare candidacies in those districts so far, eight have said it was Trump’s win that motivated them to run.

“Trump is making Democrats even more motivated by the day and I don’t see that ending,” said Dan Schnur, a former Republican strategist who teaches political science at USC. “In most cases, this kind of energy peters out after a while unless they’re provided with fresh outrages — and Donald Trump provides plenty of fresh outrages.”

While three of the Republican incumbents cruised to victory by more than 14 percentage points last year, Issa — who faced the most formidable opponent — won by just 0.6 points. That surprisingly close finish gave local Democrats a whiff of blood and the conviction that the other three may be vulnerable as well — particularly given the record low popularity of Republican president.

Beside the activist energy, demographics in the four districts continue a long-trending shift that favors Democrats. Additionally, the party that wins the White House typically loses congressional seats in subsequent mid-term election. A May poll in the Orange County portions of the four GOP districts by Sextant Strategies & Research found that 51 percent of voters disapproved of Trump’s policies and that independent voters favored an unnamed, generic Democratic candidate over a Republican one, 46 percent to 21 percent.

All these elements, Democrats hope, will add up to a win or four.

It’s an optimism that reaches well beyond local activists and the early rush of Democratic candidates. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has targeted all four seats and sees Orange County as ground zero for 2018 House gains in the west. It has begun funding campaign activity in the districts, including setting up its western regional office in Irvine.

While handicappers disagree just how serious a threat Royce, Walters and Rohrabacher face, one of the most prominent forecasters — the Cook Political Report — recently changed its rating for the three districts from “likely Republican” to “leans Republican” in the 2018 election. Another respected prognosticator, Larry Sabato, has Rohrabacher as “leans Republican” with Royce and Walters as “likely Republican.” Both forecasters call Issa’s race as a toss up.

Search for weakness

While Trump’s name is a constant refrain by those targeting the GOP incumbents, details of the attacks often address policy issues. Most prominent of those is the repeal of Obamacare, promised by Trump and taking shape in Republicans’ AHCA replacement plan — a proposal supported by the four GOP House members.

The current version would eventually leave 23 million more Americans without insurance and could send annual premiums soaring, according to the Congressional Budget Office. Tyler Law, spokesman for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, called AHCA “the single most unpopular policy in the country.”

Sonenshein is among those that think the issue may be Republicans’ most vulnerable area.

“Once people realize their health care could be lost, it could be very big,” he said. “(GOP incumbents) can make distinctions between themselves and Trump, but they can’t separate themselves from health care.”

But with nearly 17 months until the general election, a lot can change — including the final form of any Obamacare replacement.

“There’s an internal debate in the Democratic Party of whether to focus on Trump and the Russian collusion or to focus on health care,” said Chapman University political scientist John Compton.

Investigations into Russian meddling in last year’s election and possible involvement by Trump associates — along with the possibility that the White House has obstructed those investigations — could damage GOP incumbents than more than health care, according to Schnur.

“Cutting the budget and Obamacare isn’t going to be as big a deal as a constitutional crisis,” Schnur said. “It’s entirely possible that (Russia meddling) is all smoke and no fire, but Trump’s behavior and statements don’t seem to indicate that.”

If the issue does blow up, it will taint Republican Congress members, Schnur said. He noted that in 1974, on the heels of the Watergate scandal, Democrats increased their majority in the House by 49 seats to gain a two-thirds supermajority. Democrats currently need 24 seats shy to claim a House majority.

The four incumbents have taken a range of positions on the issue — particularly when it comes to Trump’s firing of FBI Director James Comey, who was overseeing his agency’s investigation into Russian intervention.

Rohrabacher, who advocates friendlier relations with Russian, and Issa, unambiguously endorsed the dismissal. Royce said the move “”raises many questions which deserve answers.” Walters’ public statement neither questioned nor embraced the firing.

The issue demonstrates a delicate dance at play. In Orange County, GOP incumbents need to appeal to moderate swing voters while maintaining support of core Trump backers.

“A Republican in Orange County with a strong conservative record who expresses strong outrage about the Russia issues is probably the best profile for a likely survivor,” Schnur said.

Persona vs. policy

The only Orange County Republican likely to receive a significant challenge is Issa, according to Dave Gilliard, a campaign consultant for Issa, Walters and Royce. Democrats’ enthusiasm in the other GOP districts is spurred by Trump and is unlikely to change the minds of those who’ve previously voted for the incumbents, he said.

“The Democrats running against the persona of Trump,” Gilliard said. “When they start running against policies, it’s a loser for them.”

Gilliard shrugged off concerns about the AHCA hurting incumbents, noting that all have long called for repealing Obamacare.

“Nobody’s going to lose because of one vote to replace an unpopular law, even if it’s replaced by another unpopular law,” he said He also dismissed those Republicans as being branded as Trump proxies. “These incumbents have their own personas built over the years. Most voters already have their opinions of them.”

Issa’s close call, despite Republicans 9-percentage point advantage in the district, was partially because of that persona. During his stint as House Oversight Committee chairman, his vitriolic attacks on President Barack Obama helped brand him as an unwavering partisan and weakened his support among moderates. His post-primary endorsement of Trump and his introduction of Trump at a San Diego rally made it easier for opponents to portray him as Trumpian.

He also was caught off guard by an unexpectedly strong challenger, retired Marine Col. Doug Applegate. The Democrat appeals to the heavy Marine population in the two-county district, which includes Camp Pendleton. Additionally, Democratic animosity toward Issa for how he used the bully pulpit of the Oversight Committee helped Applegate raise money nationwide.

Since the election, Issa has since been spending more time with constituents in the district. He’s also created a bit of space between himself and Trump in saying he supports continuing current funding levels for Planned Parenthood and the EPA, condemning Trump’s December call for a ban on Muslims entering the country and criticizing Trump’s lewd Access Hollywood statements.

Rohrabacher, on the other hand, has defended some of Trump’s most controversial statements, including shrugging off the Access Hollywood comments. On the other hand, he’s sided with Trump on slightly fewer House votes than the other three Republicans and is seen as independent-minded libertarian unmotivated by political calculations — an unpredictable wild card, according to Compton.

Royce, chairman of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, is considered the most statesmanlike of the four — a thoughtful, hardworking representative who attends hundreds of community events each year and raises millions for his campaigns, a measured veteran well-versed in both international and local issues. He’s also been the most wary of Trump. In his lukewarm post-primary endorsement of the nominee, he didn’t mention Trump by name. Beside the Comey firing, he’s expressed concerns with Trump’s travel ban and his budget.

Adding fuel to Democrats’ fire was Trump’s decision to pull the U.S. out of the Paris Climate Accord. Royce, the only one of the four to issue a public reaction, stressed the need to continue working for clean air and water, and called on Trump to forge “a better deal.” Others (through Friday, June 2) have been silent on the topic.

“Walters and Royce are textbook, nose-to-the-grindstone representatives working on local issues and avoiding controversy,” Compton said.

Walters, in her second-term after spending a decade in the state Legislature, is the sophomore representative to the House GOP leadership team. Her positions have closely mirrored those of House Speaker Paul Ryan, including her consistent support of the various iterations of the AHCA. The county’s other three Republicans withheld public support until finally voting for it.

Democrats point out that all four have sided with Trump on more than 90 percent of their votes. But Compton dismissed that as a pertinent measure of alignment with Trump because House GOP leadership is screening out “the crazier Trump stuff.”

One advantage of having Trump in the White House is it makes it easier for the national party to raise congressional campaign money, said Newport Beach’s Michael Schroeder, a former state GOP chairman and longtime ally of the four incumbents. And while Trump’s reputation could tarnish some Republican candidates, he’s confident about the chances of Orange County’s incumbents.

“As long as each of them defines their positions on the issues and lets voters know what their opponents’ positions are, they’ll be fine,” he said. “I don’t think anybody wants to be defined as a proxy on Trump.”

Martin Wisckol has been the Orange County Register's politics writer and weekly Buzz columnist since 1998, and now writes about politics for all papers in the Southern California Newspaper Group. He was given the title of politics editor in 2011 to reflect his expanded role in planning political coverage. Wisckol started his career writing about surfing and jazz, but has written predominantly about government and politics since 1985. He has held reporting positions in his hometown of San Diego, as well as in Detroit, Jacksonville and Miami. Along the way, he has put in extended stints in Japan, South America and Switzerland. His work has been honored by the Society of Professional Journalists, the National Headliner Awards, the California Newspaper Publishers Association and the Florida Press Club, among others. He continues lifelong pursuits of surfing, traveling and playing guitar.

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