Drought Monitor Update | Week Ending September 09, 2016

During the past week, areas east of the Continental Divide witnesses slightly above normal temperatures. Overall, the West was dry last week with the exception of areas of isolated precipitation in northwestern Washington, eastern Montana, and southeastern New Mexico. Dryness during the past 90 days led to expansion of areas of Abnormally Dry (D0) and Moderate Drought (D1) in southeastern and south-central Idaho. In northwestern Wyoming, an area of Severe Drought (D2) was expanded in the headwater region of the Snake River where baseflow has been well below normal.

Montana Weekly Auction Report | Week Ending September 09, 2016

Market: Billings Livestock Commission, MT

Market: Public Auction Yards – Cattle, MT

Receipts: 1,892 Last Week: 2,482 Last Year: 2,068

Compared to last week: Feeder cattle became more active as the week progressed with dramatically increased offers by the end of the week along with steady to stronger undertones. Demand for feeder cattle also staged a turnaround from last week and improved to moderate to sometimes good at the end of the week. Offerings became more available ranging light to moderate. Rain was noted in parts of the area in the early part of the week which may have hindered some offers while others noted a little earlier start in the fall run on younger cattle than normal. Feeder quality was mostly average. Weigh up conditions were also mostly average. Market activity this week was mostly slow to moderate with improvement not as the week progressed and ended above last week.

Demand on weigh up cows improved as the week progressed to moderate to instances good light to mostly moderate offerings. Slaughter cows were lightly tested with stronger undertones noted at the end of the week. Cow quality was mostly average. Offerings were in mostly small and single head packages. Feeder buyers buyers stepped up to the plate at the end of the week and actively sought cattle resulting in packer buyers causing to stand by the way side and pay at unchanged or higher prices depending on needs to be filled. At the end of the week demand from feeding buyers was moderate to good, the opposite of last week. Packer buyers at the end of the week, meanwhile, were a little more aggressive than last week in order to satisfy needs and were light to moderate ending the week in steady to slightly firmer undertones.

Slaughter bulls were generally average to below quality this week. Prices on slaughter bulls can’t be compared due to no market in Miles City this week, however, undertones were mostly lower. Offerings were moderate to heavy, mostly moderate. Quality this week on bulls was most average to below average. Offerings this week consisted of 69 percent feeder cattle, 11 percent slaughter cows, 10 percent slaughter bulls, 10 percent feeding cows and bulls and cows returning to the country, balance bred cows, heifers, and pairs.

Compared to last week, feeder steers and heifers sold mostly 2.00 to 6.00 lower and calves quoted mostly 6.00 to 15.00 lower. Over the last four weeks, the lower trend in the cattle complex has taken the air out of the sails of most everyone in the industry. The sell-off that has occurred this past month did put the October Live Cattle contracts in double digits for the first time on Tuesday. It appears to the casual chart observer that triple digit gains and/or losses happen every day as the industry is trying to gain a foothold and bring stability to the marketplace.

Even after the loss of a considerable amount of equity in the last six months, there are those who continue to be bullish as Wednesday in St Joseph, MO a half load of steers weighing 704 lbs sold for 153.10 and a half load of 802 lb steers sold at 150.50. Even though one feedyard bought them, there was another pushing to those lofty prices. Today in Burwell, NE a farmer-feeder bought a load of home raised 821 lb steers at 151.50. With the out-front fed cattle contracts hovering around the 104.00- 105.00 levels and December corn futures around 3.40 today, industry watchers were just wondering if those cattle could be backed up far enough to make a profit. Beef and hog packer margins currently are rather good right now as the cattle slaughter last week was reported at 610,000 head; the largest weekly slaughter since June 2014. As time goes on this fall, it is good that packers are making a healthy profit this go-around and critical for producers to continue to move cattle through the pipeline.

Steer dressed weights are 10 lb under a year ago and packers are doing their best to keep fed cattle weights in check by harvesting as many as they can. Early corn yield anecdotes are not as lofty as the latest forecast of 175.1 bpa and corn futures have gained around 15 cents this week. Boxed beef values continue to make new 2016 lows and are following the slide of the live cattle as Choice closed the week at 187.90, down 3.19 from last Friday’s close. Auction volume this week included 60 percent weighing over 600 lbs and 39 percent heifers.

Weekly Montana Hay Report | Week Ending September 09, 2016

Compared to last week: Alfalfa hay sold steady again this week. Demand for hay ranged light to good, mostly moderate with some finding buyers just starting to compare prices while others wait for 3rd cutting. Offerings mostly moderate with a few reluctant to make 3rd cutting as they continue to watch the depressed cattle markets. Meanwhile, some buyers noted offerings from outside of the state at lower trending prices into feeders. Hay movement this week was light to moderate.

Inquiry continued to be noted from dairies for high relative feed content alfalfa, however no sales were reported. Grass hay movement was moderate to good this week at mostly steady prices. High quality grass hay sold very well this week with horse feed buyers active participants. All prices are dollars per ton and FOB unless otherwise noted.

Alfalfa:

Supreme: Small Squares, 200.00

Good: Large Squares, 120.00-135.00; Large rounds, 125.00-135.00; Small Squares 150.00-180.00

Drought Monitor Update November 12

Periods of snow and moisture arriving in early November have significantly improved drought conditions across much of Montana during the past few weeks. However, one-third of the state, mostly west of the Divide remain in drought conditions. Areas where drought was more entrenched will need abundant precipitation to continue much farther into the wet season before any notable improvement could evolve.

After significant winds during the past few days, some gusts reaching 90+ mph east of the Divide, conditions should calm into the week ahead. Weather forecasters are predicting the first push of arctic air moving into the state as early as next weekend. Many NRCS SNOTEL sites are reporting below average for this time of year.

National Feeder & Stocker Cattle Summary – November 13

Compared to last week: the bulk of the feeder supply consisted of calves which traded mostly 10.00-20.00 lower, instances 25.00-30.00 lower. Yearlings on a light supply traded mostly 5.00-15.00 lower. Direct trade was mostly 5.00-12.00 lower. Last week’s CME “Sky is Falling” attitude continued into this week, keeping stomachs turning and cattle prices hard to manage and resentful to say the least. Buyers became noticeably price cautious and conscious on calves and yearlings.

Cattle futures have remained very volatile, as volatility appears to be out of control. CME cattle futures rebounded on Wednesday with limit moves higher and added to their positions on Thursday but closed Friday with sharp triple-digit losses as the agony and the ecstasy continues. Prices for futures and cash seem to fall faster and further than expected or as one would suggest. Before last week the market had tried to hold the line and continue to wait day by day to see what the next move would be. We have had tremendous weather to feed cattle that have performed very well and a packer who hasn’t had to chase the market; adjusting their kill schedules and having plenty of cattle bought forward. The heavy weight fed cattle situation is improving but not over, U.S. beef exports are near 13 percent lower year to date.

Weekly Montana Hay Report – November 13

Compared to last week: Alfalfa was generally steady on light to moderate. Weather conditions have been mostly in cattlemens favor over the last few weeks as many cows and calves remain out on pasture. Demand for hay remains mostly light as a result. Producers needing to move hay have been forced to do so at weaker prices over the last few weeks as demand for hay has lightened. Many cattlemen purchased large quantities of hay late in the summer and as a result they are sitting well on feed needs. A mild fall and limited snow fall totals have limited feed use only adding to demand issues.

Demand for dairy quality, 3rd cutting hay remains limited. Dairy producers continue search for deals and many have already purchased hay for the year. Producers continue to price hay at 1.00 per RFV point, however demand for hay is very limited above 185.00 per ton at any quality level. Grass hay saw light to moderate movement and mostly light demand this week. Prices for grass hay were steady to weak as pressure continues to be seen from from neighboring states.

Alfalfa:

Supreme: Small Squares, 200.00; Large Squares 150.00-185.00

Premium: Large Squares, 140.00-180.00

Good: Large Squares, 150.00-170.00

Fair: Large Squares, 80.00-135.00

Utility: Large Squares, 100.00

Grass:

Alfalfa Mix Premium: Large Squares: 170.00; Good Large Rounds, 125.00-140.00

Drought Monitor Update October 22

Moderate to Extreme drought continues along and west of the Divide with slight increase in dry conditions in Central Montana this week. Dry weather dominated much of the country, favoring summer crop harvesting and winter wheat planting. However, topsoil moisture shortages hampered wheat emergence and establishment in a variety of regions, including portions of the Plains, lower Midwest, and interior Northwest.

Extremely dry conditions persisted in much of Oregon and Washington, hampering winter crop establishment. By October 18, winter wheat emergence was at least 10 percentage points behind the 5-year average pace in Oregon (18% emerged) and Washington (62%).

Montana Weekly Auction Report – Week of October 19

Cattle on Feed Report – October 23

Cattle and calves on feed for the slaughter market in the United States for feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head totaled 10.2 million head on October 1, 2015. The inventory was 2 percent above October 1, 2014. The inventory included 6.93 million steers and steer calves, up 7 percent from the previous year. This group accounted for 68 percent of the total inventory. Heifers and heifer calves accounted for 3.29 million head, down 7 percent from 2014. October 1, 2015 heifers and heifer calves inventory is the lowest percent of total October inventory since the series began in 1996.

Placements in feedlots during September totaled 1.93 million head, 4 percent below 2014. Net placements were 1.87 million head. During September, placements of cattle and calves weighing less than 600 pounds were 395,000 head, 600-699 pounds were 290,000 head, 700-799 pounds were 416,000 head, and 800 pounds and greater were 830,000 head. Placements are the lowest for September since the series began in 1996.

National Feeder & Stocker Cattle Summary – October 23

Compared to last week: the calf market this period experienced wide price ranges and trends in all reporting regions, lightweight feeders under 500 lbs selling mostly 5.00-15.00 higher and calves over 500 lbs and yearlings trading fully steady to 5.00 higher with instances 10.00 higher. Last week’s sharply higher fed and feeder cattle markets and sharply higher futures caused feeder prices to come out of the gate with compelling buying interest. The fed cattle market has rallied near 20.00 over the last two weeks, after declining over 30.00 since Mid-August. Feedlot managers have reclaimed a considerable leverage and an overall positive attitude. This has also spilled over into the feeder cattle markets the last two weeks.

CME Live Cattle futures are back to trading at Mid-September levels, prior to the big break in the market. It seems what use to take months for markets to move is now taking days and weeks, hopefully this is not going to be the new norm as this market is trying to find its course. Optimism also remains guarded as the cattle markets continue higher. Futures are also finding renewed buying support. Despite higher futures prices and cattle producers continue to struggle to reach breakeven levels. This still could create some long term tension and volatility.

Weekly Montana Hay Report – October 23

Compared to last week: Alfalfa was steady to weak this week on mostly light movement and light to moderate demand. Producers are finished with 3rd cutting and a few have started on a 4th. Rain this week helped improve pasture and range conditions and allowed producers to leave cows turned out. This has decreased short term demand for hay. Demand for high quality 3rd cutting continues to be very limited, however demand for lower quality 3rd cutting was mostly moderate to good, with movement continuing to be seen on RFV under 185. Grass hay saw light movement and mostly light demand this week. Hay prices in neighboring states continue to be a drag on all hay prices as many feeders are shopping around to find the best deal.

Alfalfa:

Supreme: Small Squares, 200.00-225.00

Premium: Large Squares, 170.00-180.00

Good: Large Squares, 150.00-170.00

Fair: Large Squares, 90.00-135.00

Utility: Large Squares, 100.00

Grass:

Alfalfa Mix Premium: Large Squares: 170.00; Good Large Rounds, 125.00-140.00

Drought Monitor Update October 15

Moderate to Extreme drought continues along and west of the Divide with improvement of conditions in eastern portions of the state during recent weeks. Dry and warm conditions have persisted across much of the region during the past week. While a limited period of dry and warm conditions is ideal for the maturation, dry down, and harvesting of summer crops, too much time under such conditions degrades topsoil moisture, pasture conditions, and winter grains growth while creating ideal wildfire conditions.

For the upcoming 5-day period (October 15-19), a rather dry weather pattern should exist east of the Rockies, however light rainfall is expected over the weekend. Winter forecasts released this week by NOAA continue to predict abnormally warm and dry conditions in the coming months that will do little to relieve persistent drought conditions along and west of the northern Rockies.

Montana Weekly Auction Report – October 12

Market: Billings Livestock, Public Auction Yards, Miles City

Receipts: 7,716; Last Week 6,151; Last Year 7,663

Compared to last report: Spring born feeder steers calves sold mostly 5.00-10.00 higher. Heifer calves sold steady to 10.00 higher. Yearling steers were too lightly tested for and market comparison, however steady undertones were noticed. Yearling heifers sold mostly 5.00-8.00 higher in a arrow comparison. Quality this week was mostly average for yearling cattle, with the exception of a few small strings of tested open heifers which were attractive to very attractive. Spring born calves were mostly average to attractive with a few long stings of very attractive offerings. Demand this week was good to very good at times for spring born calves. Notably demand for heifers was much improved this week as some buyers searched for fancy quality heifers that they could use as replacements. Demand for high quality yearling cattle was good to very good at times, with demand for average quality cattle moderate at best.

National Feeder & Stocker Cattle Summary – October 16

Compared to last week: yearling feeder cattle sold 5.00-15.00 higher with highest advances mostly early in the week as auctions first part of the week
were catching up with major advances from middle of last week. Direct sales were mostly 3.00-10.00 higher. Feeder calves traded 10.00-20.00 higher with instances 25.00-30.00 higher. The cattle complex has experienced a good recovery from the lows made the first of the month. Feeder prices had finally fallen to a point where replacing feeder cattle became attractive to buyers. Many buyers over the last several weeks have been on the sidelines waiting to see when and where this collapse would end. The recovery this week has come at a time when many cow-calf producers are getting ready to sell their calf crop.

After a sharp break in the cattle complex and now that the dust is settling, one positive take is often when the market breaks sharply you can also recover the same way as one extreme leads to another. Cattle futures on Friday closed with sharp triple-digit gains to end the week after a pull back on Thursday. This is a market that has had much price volatility over the last six weeks with Live Cattle prices falling mostly 20.00-25.00 since the first week of September has been an extreme.

Weekly Montana Hay Report – October 16

Compared to last week: Alfalfa was steady this week on mostly light movement and light to moderate demand. Producers are almost finished with 3rd cutting and a few have started on a 4th. Very limited movement has been seen for high quality 3rd cutting. Lower quality 3rd cutting has seen moderate to good demand and movement has been fairly good. Relative feed values this week ranged from 150-220 as producers continue to get feed test back. Grass hay has seen very light movement and mostly light demand this week. Hay prices in neighboring states continue to be a drag on grass hay prices as many feeders are shopping around to find the best deal

Alfalfa:

Supreme: Small Squares, 200.00-225.00

Premium: Large Squares, 180.00

Good: Large Squares, 150.00-170.00

Fair: Large Squares, 110.00-135.00; Large Rounds, 120.00-130.00

Grass:

Alfalfa Mix Premium: Large Squares: 170.00; Good Large Rounds, 125.00-140.00

Drought Monitor Update September 24

Moderate to Extreme drought continues along and west of the Divide with no significant changes in recent weeks, except some decrease of abnormally dry areas in Eastern Montana. Long-term conditions remain dry heading into the Fall season.

The overall trend toward drought persistence continued in our region, though pockets of beneficial rain were noted in the northern Rockies, Pacific Northwest, and lower Four Corners. The west was generally cooler than normal, easing stress on pastures, crops, and livestock. In the north, most of the region’s core Extreme Drought (D3) areas were dry. However, moderate to heavy rain on Washington’s Olympic Peninsula (2-4 inches, locally more) staved off D3 expansion. Farther east, 1 to 3 inches of rain eased drought intensity and coverage over central and southern Idaho, though northern portions of the state remained dry.

Montana Weekly Auction Report – September 25

Market: Billings Livestock, Public Auction Yards, Miles City

Receipts: 4,574; Last Week 3,767; Last Year NA

Compared to last report: Spring born feeder steers and heifers sold sharply lower this week with most sales 15.00-20.00 lower and instances of 30.00 lower on lightweight calves. Yearling feeder steers sold mostly 10.00 lower in a narrow comparison. Yearling heifers under 900 lbs sold 10.00-15.00 lower while heifers over 900 lbs sold weak to 5.00 lower with heavier weights selling with more demand than lighter weight offerings.

Quality this week was mostly average to attractive, with several very attractive sets of both yearlings and spring born calves. Flesh conditions were in buyers favor with many lightly fleshed feeders coming off grass. However, weigh up conditions were average at best this week; yearling cattle coming off grass were more likely to push excess fill than spring calves. Demand for feeder cattle was light to moderate on yearling offerings, while spring born calves saw light demand.

Slaughter cows sold mostly 5.00-6.00 lower and feeding cows sold lower as well on a notably poor quality offering this week. The best demand for cows this week was for young 2 year olds to young age cows suitable to enter a breeding program. These offerings sold fully steady on good demand. Slaughter bulls sold mostly 2.00 lower in a narrow comparison.

National Feeder & Stocker Cattle Summary – September 25

Compared to last week: yearling feeder cattle sold mostly 5.00-10.00 lower, with instances 15.00 lower. Calves traded mostly 5.00-15.00 lower with some sales 20.00 lower throughout the Midwest and Southeast. Discounts are quickly becoming more severe on unweaned-fleshy types which complement the larger discounts on price trends on calves.

The calf market pressure is typical of autumn’s arrival with increase headcounts of new crop bawlers and the onset of warm days and cool nights. Pre-condition yard sickpens are starting to fill as the combination of separation anxiety and shipping fever takes its toll on new purchases.

Cattle futures and cash prices continued their free-fall from last week with no-way of applying the brakes to stop the bleeding. Heavy liquidation selling took place again this week in the cattle futures with limit losses on Wednesday. Futures continued in their flush out mode on Thursday closing again with sharp triple-digit losses, but then traded limit higher to close on Friday; perhaps to give some hard to come by hope for next week. Any justification for high priced feeders has worn out its welcome, as losses keep mounting for cattle feeders and the near term outlook still looking bleak. This has the feeder cattle market accelerating to the downside as feeder cattle prices now stand as excessively overpriced.

Last week’s Cattle on Feed Report did have somewhat positive news in smaller placements than expected, but lower placements are not providing any help to the fed cattle or feeder cattle market. Market psychology and beef demand definitely need a reversal along with cleaning up heavy fed cattle coming to market.

Weekly Montana Hay Report – September 25

Compared to last week: Alfalfa was generally steady this week on moderate demand and light to moderate movement. Perfect weather conditions have helped producers across the west-central portion of the state put up excellent quality 3rd cutting. With third cutting still going up very few sales have taken place, however limited sales have moved at around 1.00 per RFV point. Grass hay experienced moderate movement this week with sales steady to weak. Hay for export continues to move at the bottom end of the range.

Alfalfa:

Supreme: Small Squares, 200.00-225.00

Premium: Large Squares, 180.00

Good: Large Squares, 150.00-170.00

Fair: Large Squares, 110.00-140.00; Large Rounds, 120.00

Grass:

Alfalfa Mix Premium: Large Squares: 170.00; Good Large Rounds, 125.00-140.00

Drought Monitor Update September 17

Moderate to Extreme drought continues along and west of the Divide, now covering 38.6% of the state. No movement was seen in coverage of drought conditions compared to last report. However, with significant rainfall over portions of the state in recent days, slight improvements may be seen in the next report. Long-term conditions remain dry heading into the Fall season.

Oppressive heat continued into the first half of the period in the Northwest where the average temperatures were 10-20 degrees F above normal. Cooler temperatures moved in during the latter half of the week. For the next 6-10 day period, chances of above average temperatures are likely for the majority of the CONUS. The greatest chances are in the High Plains and down into the Great Basin and Southern California. Chances are likely that a small portion of the Northwest will experience below normal temperatures.

USDA August Cattle on Feed Report – September 18

Cattle and calves on feed for the slaughter market in the United States for feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head totaled 9.99 million head on September 1, 2015. The inventory was 3 percent above September 1, 2014.

Placements in feedlots during August totaled 1.63 million head, 5 percent below 2014. Net placements were 1.57 million head. During August, placements of cattle and calves weighing less than 600 pounds were 395,000 head, 600-699 pounds were 215,000 head, 700-799 pounds were 362,000 head, and 800 pounds and greater were 660,000 head. Placements are the lowest for August since the series began in 1996.

Marketings of fed cattle during August totaled 1.59 million head, 6 percent below 2014. Marketings are the lowest for August since the series began in 1996.

Montana Weekly Auction Report – September 4

Market: Billings Livestock, Public Auction Yards, Miles City

Receipts: 3,767; Last Week 2,068; Last Year 2,210

Compared to last report: Feeder steers were too lightly tested for an accurate market trend, however steady to weak undertones were seen on both yearling and spring born calves. Heifer feeder calves sold mostly steady to weak on spring born calves and mostly 10.00 lower on yearling offerings. Quality this week was mixed with long strings of very attractive spring born calves seen early in the week and mostly average quality calves the rest of the week. Yearling cattle continue to be attractive to very attractive over all, especially heifers as many are tested open replacement quality.

Weigh conditions were much improved this week with average to above average weigh up on most feeders. Flesh conditions continue to be light as many yearlings are coming off grass and many calves seen this week were out of dry country.

Feeding and replacement cow buyers showed increased interest this week as well which forced packer buyers to continue to be aggressive as they bid on cows. Slaughter bulls sold unevenly steady with feeding bull buyers pushing packers to pay more money for offerings at times. A few sets of cow offerings were in very thin condition, especially cows coming out of the western part of the state where drought conditions continue to push cows to market.

National Feeder & Stocker Cattle Summary – September 4

Compared to last week: yearling feeder cattle sold 5.00-15.00 lower, while calf prices traded 10.00-20.00 lower, with instances 25.00 lower. The feeder cattle market remains in a very bearish camp with all systems on the go to the downside. Several auctions saw the arrival of spring born calves, but have yet to see them arrive in droves. The onset of the wide spread between daytime high temperatures and overnight lows is typical of autumn’s arrival. The increased supply of calves getting ready to hit the market at lower prices will cause buyers to be extremely more selective in their purchases. With the market in a downtrend discounts will more than likely become even more severe on unweaned and fleshy calves.

Last Friday saw sharp triple-digit losses in both Live and Feeder cattle futures continued into this week with more heavy losses with the lack of any bullish news to help the market. This has market psychology extremely on the defensive side. With another week of falling prices in the fed cattle market doesn’t seem to anticipate a price rally anytime soon continues to weigh heavy on the feeder cattle market giving feeders little leverage. At this time it’s hard to say when and where fed cattle prices will bottom.

Weekly Montana Hay Report – September 18

Compared to last week: Alfalfa was generally steady this week on moderate demand and light movement. Light rain moved across much of the south central portion of the state yesterday and many producers couldn’t get their 3rd cutting up in time. Most areas received only light rainfall totals of less than .5 inch, however this put a dent in many producers hope of putting up a very high dairy quality crop.

Grass hay experienced much of the same movement volumes as alfalfa. Hay for export continues to move at the bottom end of the range. Montana hay prices continue to be higher than many surrounding states as dry conditions in the western portion of the state continue to prop up prices.

Alfalfa:

Supreme: Small Squares, 200.00-225.00

Good: Large Squares, 150.00-170.00

Fair: Large Squares, 110.00-140.00; Large Rounds, 120.00

Grass:

Alfalfa Mix Premium: Large Squares: 170.00; Good Large Rounds, 125.00-140.00

Drought Monitor Update September 3

Moderate to Extreme drought continues along and west of the Divide, now covering 40% of the state. A continuing lack of precipitation across western Montana prompted a slight eastward shift of all drought categories.

Recent days have brought beneficial precipitation for western Washington (1.5 inches), northern Montana (2-4 inches). This combined with cooler temperatures and higher elevation snow have brought some fire and smoke relief for the region. As of Sunday afternoon, several fires are listed as active in Montana. Many areas west of the Divide remain in Stage II fire restrictions.

Montana Weekly Auction Report – September 4

Market: Billings Livestock, Public Auction Yards, Miles City

Receipts: 2,103; Last Week 1,529; Last Year 1,087

Compared to last report: Yearling feeder steers and heifers were too lightly tested in any one particular weight category for an accurate market trend, however steady to firm undertones were noticed on steers and steady to weak undertones were noticed on heifers. Quality this week was mixed with both average plain made offerings and very high quality fancy strings of both young calves and yearlings. Weigh-up conditions for yearlings were average to below average at times with many offerings coming straight off grass pushing some fill. Flesh conditions were very light to moderate. Flesh conditions varied drastically this week due to variable pasture and range conditions across the state. Demand for most feeder cattle was moderate, with moderate to good demand seen at times for higher quality offerings.

Weigh-up cows sold with light to moderate demand throughout the week. Weigh-up conditions were average to below average with many cows coming out of very dry country. Quality this week was mostly below average to average and notably higher than last week. Demand for Slaughter cows was mostly moderate with packers showing more willingness to purchase higher quality cows. Slaughter cows sold mostly steady on like quality. Feeding cow buyers showed some increased interest this week as higher quality cattle came through the ring.

A smaller run of cull bulls was seen this week, and many of these bulls were destined to be put on feed. Slaughter bulls sold mostly 3.00 lower. 2-3 year old cows sold with good demand this week as buyers fought over limited offerings.

National Feeder & Stocker Cattle Summary – September 4

Compared to last week: yearlings traded mostly steady to 3.00 higher (mostly early to midweek) with calves selling steady to 5.00 higher. Several auctions late in the week mostly in the Northern Plains were 5.00-10.00 lower when compared to two weeks ago. After last week’s emotional and very draining week of trading with big moves to the downside in the commodity and equity markets feeder cattle and fed cattle prices were some of the biggest victims of the purge. Calf and yearling prices definitely had room to correct higher; which at most auctions showed some stability and strength this week. The best demand for yearlings remains in the Northern Plains and the availability of yearling cattle is very tight which has created a good competition from cattle buyers needing to procure yearling cattle.

The fall run will soon be underway and usually calf prices feel the pressure as they are pulled off grass as receipts increase with many unweaned and fleshy calves coming to market. For the most part, feeder cattle prices are still feeling pressure from the losses of current fed cattle prices. We have previously seen huge premiums carried by the feeder cattle to the fat cattle and are starting to see a reality check as feeders are seeing prices dropping faster than the fats. Packers are seeing some decent margins, but want to keep those as long as possible, while feedyards are trying to get some of it back; fighting lower bids.

Fears of China’s financial concerns continue to bleed over into U.S. equity and commodity markets which produce a risk mentality for many of the agriculture markets and outlook for livestock prices. The velocity of last week’s sell-off should not be a surprise, but it does leave an impression on the markets. This keeps traders’ attitudes, positions and frame of minds changing fast and in a hurry.

Weekly Montana Hay Report – September 4

Compared to last week: Alfalfa was fully steady this week on moderate demand and light movement as many producers are in the fields harvesting other crops. Grass hay experienced much of the same movement volumes as alfalfa. Hay prices across the state have remained steady over the last few weeks. Rain is forecasted and currently falling over much of the northern half of the state and is a very welcomed sight for many dry areas. Much of the central part of the state received rain over the weekend making it hard for producers to put up third cutting. Smoky conditions from wildfires has eased some within the last week.

Drought Monitor Update August 27

Extreme drought continues to expand west of the Divide, now covering 18% of the state. In the northern Rockies and Pacific Northwest, the USDA Forest Service reported approximately 40 large wildfires in progress as of August 26th, as warm and very dry weather persisted.

Moderate drought (D1) was expanded across southeast portions of Idaho. The change is based on low stream flows in the Teton and Henrys Fork basins, and precipitation deficits during the last 60-90 days. Extreme drought (D3) coverage was expanded across east-central Washington, and north-central and northeastern Oregon. Some considerations in the D3 expansion across the Northwest include daily record low stream flows, short-term (2-month) Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) values, and low precipitation amounts from June 1 – present time throughout the region. In some cases, record or near-record dryness was reported for the June 1 – present time.

Montana Weekly Auction Report – August 28

Market: Public Auction Yards, Miles City

Receipts: NA; Last Week NA; Last Year NA

Compared to last report: No weekly summary was posted for Montana markets this week due to light tests, however unevenly steady undertones were noticed on all yearling feeders. Feeder cattle quality was mostly average to attractive, with a few strings of very attractive offerings coming off grass. Flesh conditions were mostly very light to light today as many offerings were coming out of dry country. Demand for feeder cattle was mostly moderate, with moderate to good demand seen at times as buyers continue fight for good lightly fleshed grass cattle to fill feedlots.

National Feeder & Stocker Cattle Summary – August 28

Compared to last week: yearlings traded 5.00-10.00 lower with calves selling 10.00-20.00 lower, with instances 25.00-30.00 lower. Order buyers this week were extremely cautious after aggressive pressure from the Stock Market tumble and with very bearish outside markets keeping a strain on all commodity markets. This had order buyers wanting and needing to buy feeders cheaper this week. The cattle complex remains focused on the ability for outside market fundamentals to stabilize and to steady. Demand for calves was light to moderate, with best demand for yearlings; several auctions were getting ready for the “fall run” noting the arrival of new-crop bawling calves this week. With corrections coming in the feeder cattle market, this has prices retreating with pressure coming from fed cattle prices heading back to their summer lows.

Many backgrounders and cattle grazers who have held a little too long are not going to see a rally they have enjoyed in the past, as many yearling steers weighing from 850-950 lbs are trading both sides of 200.00; Prices dropping 10.00-15.00 from early summer highs. As fed cattle prices are declining, cattle feeders are adjusting what they pay for feeder cattle. So far this year, feeder cattle prices have been too high in relation to fed cattle prices and even despite lower feeder cattle prices this week demand remains good for yearlings in the Northern Plains.

Livestock markets remain vulnerable and reacted with lower prices in reaction to global financial worries mostly coming from China’s economic fears. Traders know this affects the commodity markets and as a result, funds have been mostly sellers to reduce their exposure in the commodities. The sell-off in the cattle complex is much hastier and fast paced than the rallies, just getting back to even is a big task.

Weekly Montana Hay Report – August 28

Compared to last week: Alfalfa was steady this week and excellent movement was seen across the state. Demand for Alfalfa was moderate this week on moderate offerings. Grass hay experienced much of the same movement volumes as alfalfa. The western half of the state continues to remain in extreme drought and this region continues to see the best demand for both grass and alfalfa. Wildfires continue to cause smoky, hazy conditions for much of the central and eastern half of the state. This has forced many producers to watch the forecast very closely as hay drying times have increased drastically.

Montana Weekly Auction Report – August 21

Market: Public Auction Yards, Miles City

Receipts: 2,398; Last Week NA; Last Year NA

Compared to last report: The majority of feeder cattle offered this week were yearlings. Quality this week was average to attractive with a few long strings of very attractive yearlings. Yearlings offered this week come both off grass as well as out of backgrounding lots. Overall flesh conditions were light to moderate this week. Even backgrounded yearlings were in light to moderate flesh and sold equally as well as grass cattle.

Weigh-up cows sold overall with light to moderate demand on mostly light offerings. Demand for Slaughter cows was light to moderate this week with the best demand seen for boning and lean cows. Fleshy breaking cows sold on light demand as packer buyer back off on these offerings. This allowed for feeding cow buyers to purchase some of these offerings to return to the country to feed. A large run of cull bulls continues to come to town after the breeding season. Many of these bulls in very light to light flesh.

August Cattle On Feed Report

Cattle and calves on feed for the slaughter market in the United States for feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head totaled 10.0 million head on August 1, 2015. The inventory was 3 percent above August 1, 2014.

Placements in feedlots during July totaled 1.55 million head, 1 percent below 2014. Net placements were 1.49 million head. During July, placements of cattle and calves weighing less than 600 pounds were 365,000 head, 600-699 pounds were 235,000 head, 700-799 pounds were 327,000 head, and 800 pounds and greater were 620,000 head. Placements are the lowest for July since the series began in 1996.

Marketings of fed cattle during July totaled 1.73 million head, 3 percent below 2014. Marketings are the lowest for July since the series began in 1996.

National Feeder & Stocker Cattle Summary – August 21

Compared to last week: calves and yearlings traded weak to 5.00 lower with a number of instances 10.00 lower from midweek on. Direct sales traded steady to 2.00 lower early in the week, then turning 3.00-7.00 lower late week. Cattle futures seem to keep the focus on the bearish side, not wanting to show much life. Cattle futures on Wednesday reared their ugly head closing with sharp triple-digit losses, making new lows for the month. Market psychology keeps focus on negative fundamentals, with plentiful supplies and lower prices for competing meats, struggling outside markets, lower meat exports and the focus of trading the market on what is happening right now.

In the next 30-45 days auctions should see a good number of feeder cattle moving off pasture into feed yards. Unless the fed cattle market gets a move up the feeder cattle market won’t be able to maintain the premiums that has been paid for yearlings and calves the previous months.Time is running out to take advantage of summer grilling demand and with the fed cattle market remaining stagnant, cut-out values have made some steady gains over the last couple of weeks heading into Labor Day Weekend.

Weekly Montana Hay Report – August 21

Compared to last week: Alfalfa was steady this week as rains across the northern and eastern parts of the state over the past few weeks have eased some forage concerns. The urgency to find hay seen earlier in the month seems to have scaled back as pasture and range conditions have improved. Demand for Alfalfa was moderate this week. Grass hay experienced many of the same issues as lighter demand was seen across the state this week. Many producers seem willing to wait this out and see if market conditions improve as we head into fall.

The western half of the state continues to remain in extreme drought conditions and wildfires continue to plague the area. Hay to ship to this region of the state remains in good demand and has helped provide some stability to the rest of the state’s hay markets. Additionally, the wildfires have caused smoky conditions for much of the central and eastern half of the state causing low visibility conditions. This has impeded many finishing up second cutting or starting on third as hazy, overcast conditions make for longer dry times.

Drought Monitor Update August 6

As can be expected this time of year, it was a pretty uneventful week on the precipitation front across most of the region, including a quiet monsoon signal across the Desert Southwest. The West remains unchanged this week but the impacts (near-record/record low streamflow, water supply, water temperatures, fire, etc.) are still being felt and are of major concern as we head toward a new water year with September now on the horizon.

For the period August 6 through August 11, monsoon precipitation will again be relatively scarce across the Desert Southwest and the rest of the West will be seasonally dry as well. One significant feature worth noting is that the 8-14 day outlook projects a stronger likelihood of above-normal temperatures across the West.

Montana Weekly Auction Summary for Week Ending August 7

Market: Billings Livestock, Public Auction Yards, Miles City

Receipts: 1,188; Last Week 997; Last Year NA

Compared to last report: Supply of Feeder cattle this week was very light and consisted of mostly single head lots and a few larger, good quality, groups. CME futures contract prices ended with the August contract at .95 lower to close at 214.975 and September 1.35 lower at 211.475. Throughout the week, Slaughter cows sold firm with good demand. Feeding cows and Cows returning to the country sold very light. Even though supply of Slaughter bulls increased significantly this week, Slaughter bulls sold firm with good demand. The moderate supply consisted of mostly average and high dressing bulls.

National Feeder & Stocker Cattle Summary – August 7

Compared to last week: calves and yearlings sold steady to 5.00 higher with instances up to 10.00 higher across the Midwest and Southern Plains. Last week’s higher fed cattle market caused feeder prices to rebound this week. Demand was good on light to moderate receipts. Cattle futures all turned green on Monday with triple-digit gains of over 3.00 on feeder cattle contracts but, failed to charge ahead the rest of the week. Monday’s rally in the futures was supported by higher fed cattle trade last Friday with ideas that a seasonal bottom has been found.

Short bought packers had some immediate needs to buy fed cattle and hopefully have found a spot where fed cattle prices want to turn around. Cattle futures seem at this time to have many traders on the sidelines taking a wait and see attitude. Feeder cattle prices pretty much are going to be driven by the fed cattle market and if fed cattle have put in a summer low, how much upside potential does the fed cattle market have? The market still needs some kind of news to bring fat cattle up to a level where feeders will make money when finished.

A strong US dollar and continuing to import beef at a good pace; are factors that have bought us to a place where we are moving meat domestically and abroad at a slower pace which has created some excess. The US Jobs report was released Friday morning showing job growth remaining steady with 215,000 jobs added a little below expectations. Signs of slack persist as unemployment remains flat at 5.3%.

Weekly Montana Hay Report – August 7

Compared to last week: Alfalfa sold steady to 10.00 higher. Grass sold steady. Trade for all types of hay was slow to inactive. Rain throughout the week greened pastures, making buyers less likely to seek out bailed hay. This rain also dampened second cutting forcing producers to bail wet hay. Throughout the coming week, the state is expected to experience mostly clear weather and warm temperatures.