Friday, June 27, 2014

Iraq’s Northern Front Stalemate In Salahaddin

Salahaddin was where the Iraqi Security Forces (ISF) and
militias stopped the insurgent’s surge south from Mosul. That was not before nearly
half of the province fell to militants. Salahaddin became where the government
drew the line because it contains the Askari shrine in Samarra, which is
important not only for Baghdad, but the militias and Iran. Since that time the
fight in the governorate has settled into a war of attrition, foreshadowing
what the battle against the militants will be like in the entire country.

HUMVEE captured at army base in Tikrit by Naqshibandi (via Aymenn Jawad al-Tamimi)

After the Fall of Mosul the insurgents charged south for
Baghdad, but were stopped in Salahaddin. June 10, 2014 the Iraqi Security
Forces (ISF) collapsed
in Ninewa province, and the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIS) and
other insurgent groups immediately went for the capital. They took Highway 2 south
taking Shirqat
and Baiji in northern Salahaddin, while another force went through western
Kirkuk and ended up taking
Sulaiman Bek in the western part of the province. They stopped outside
the provincial capital of Tikrit. Like in Ninewa most of the ISF fled,
sometimes without putting up a fight. The army depot in Baiji for example was abandoned leaving behind
all the weapons and supplies for the insurgents. This also led the peshmerga to
move into the Tuz Khurmato district in the west to fill the security vacuum
left by the retreating security forces. The Tuz area is also a disputed area
that the Kurdish regional government has long claimed. The next day the
militants took
Tikrit, and launched an assault
upon Samarra, which was repulsed. It was during this period that ISIS
released pictures on social media claiming that it had executed
1,700 soldiers who were captured in Tikrit. That was made for propaganda
purposes, and Human Rights Watch believes that around 160-190 men were actually
killed in two locations in the city. By June 14 the ISF had rallied a bit and
were able to clear Dhuluiya, which
is to the east of Samarra, and Ishaqi
that is to the west of Balad, while holding onto the Tikrit
air base. By that time there was a general mobilization in the country
after Grand Ayatollah Ali Al-Sistani called on the public to
support the security services. Militias also moved into Samarra to help the
army and police protect the Askari shrine there.

Smoke billowing from the Baiji refinery which the ISF has been able to hold after several ISIS attacks

Today Salahaddin represents how even if the ISF and militias
stand and fight it will be a long and bloody war ahead of them to defeat the
insurgency. Neither the militants nor the government have been able to make
much headway since June 14. Ishaqi for example was cleared that day, then again
on June 19, and then a
third time on June 25. To
the west ISIS has repeatedly clashed with the peshmerga and Turkmen units in
the Tuz
Kharmato area, but have gained no ground. Militants have also attacked Balad
air base. The real point of contention has been the Baiji
refinery, which is one of the largest producers of fuel in the country.
Despite continued assaults by tribes and ISIS and most of the guards and army
units withdrawing the ISF were able to hold onto the facility. Ishaqi shows how
even if the government is able to retake an area it lacks the capability to
hold it. This has been repeated again and again in Anbar for the last six
months where the ISF has cleared a town and then left allowing the insurgents
to move right back in, requiring another operation and another and another. In
western Salahaddin ISIS has run into the Kurdish and Turkmen forces and made
little headway, but Irbil is content with just holding onto the disputed areas
and not moving forward. That means there will be constant clashes along this
area between Sulaiman Bek and Tuz Kharmato but nothing decisive. Baiji refinery
has been held for now due to some valiant fighting by a SWAT unit, but the
Islamic State is not going to give up as the facility could provide a huge
source of fuel for Mosul and other territory it has captured in northern Iraq. Finally,
Samarra is too important for Baghdad, the militias or Iran to let it fall. That
has led to the current stalemate in the province.

Salahaddin is one area of Iraq where the Iraqi forces have
stopped running and put up a fight. They have been able to hold onto roughly
the southern half of the province with the Kurds securing the western section.
In the future some new towns may fall to the insurgents, and others could be
taken back, but the battle lines are pretty much set and the two sides are
facing a long war ahead of them. Samarra has become a rallying cry for the government,
the militias, and Iran, and the government has been able to hold onto the Baiji
refinery. Those have both blunted the militants’ fast war of maneuver. At the
same time, the ISF and militias have not proven successful at retaking and
holding any territory as has happened in Ishaqi. The larger problem is that
Baghdad has no strategy on how to turn around the security situation. That has
left it and its militia allies to simply shoot it out with the insurgents,
which will be a very long and costly endeavor.

IRAQ HISTORY TIMELINE

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About Me

Musings On Iraq was started in 2008 to explain the political, economic, security and cultural situation in Iraq via original articles and interviews. If you wish to contact me personally my email is: motown67@aol.com