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NFL Picks

CFL Playoffs Two-Team Parlay Pick

This Sunday marks the start of the 2014 CFL Grey Cup Playoffs with a pair on matchups in the Division Semifinals. All season long I have been making picks as part of a weekly two-team CFL parlay, so I will really be put to the test this week with just two games on the slate.

The following is a betting breakdown for both of Sunday’s CFL playoff games as well as a pick for each as part of this week’s two-team parlay based on CFL betting odds as provided by 5Dimes.

Game Overview
You could almost say that BC backed into the CFL playoff as a crossover team from the West on the strength of a 9-9 record both straight-up and against the spread. This is because the Lions have gone just 2-5 SU (3-4 ATS) in their last seven games including a 33-16 loss to Calgary in their season finale as 1.5-point home favorites. The total went OVER the 47-point closing line in that game after staying UNDER in three of their previous four games.

One of the issues has been a BC offense that has only managed to score an average of 19.3 points in its last seven games. Kevin Glenn has thrown for the second-most yards in the CFL this season (3,918), but he also leads the league in interceptions with 17. Travis Lulay has returned to practice, but how much he could contribute if Glenn gets off to a rough start remains to be seen.

Montreal ended its regular season on a down note in a 29-15 loss to Hamilton as a four-point road underdog. This followed a SU six-game winning streak (5-0-1 ATS) in which its defense did not allow more than 17 points in any of the six games. The total stayed UNDER the 45-point line against the Tiger-Cats and it has stayed UNDER in six of the Alouettes’ last seven games.

You also have to credit much of Montreal’s success down the stretch to the play of quarterback Jonathan Crompton. He finished the regular season with 2,482 yards and while he only completed 58.1 percent of his throws, he has shown the ability to make the plays when his team has needed them the most.

Betting Trends
The Lions have gone 18-7 ATS in their last 25 games against the Alouettes, but on the road in Montreal they have lost eight of the last nine meetings SU. The total has gone OVER in five of the last six meetings between the two in Montreal.

The home team had the edge both SU and ATS in this season’s two-game series and the total stayed UNDER in both contests between these two inter-division foes.

Betting Prediction
Montreal comes into this matchup in much better all-around form and it knows how to use its home field edge to win games. This should be a defensive battle all day long, but in the end look for the Alouettes grind-out a SU win while covering the 2.5-point spread at Bookmaker .

Betting Overview
Saskatchewan is another team that had its issues down the stretch. Last week’s 24-17 victory over Edmonton as a 1.5-point home favorite snapped a SU five-game losing streak. The Roughriders have been brutal to bet on with a 1-7 record ATS over the course of their final eight games. The total stayed UNDER the 45.5-point line in their season finale after going OVER in three of its previous four outings.

With Darian Durant as their starting quarterback the Roughriders jumped-out to an 8-2 SU start in their first 10 games. Once he went down with a serious elbow injury, Saskatchewan turned to both Tino Sunseri and Kerry Joseph to run the offense and the results have been self-evident. Durant is actually listed as questionable for Sunday’s game, but even more encouraging was Saskatchewan’s success running the ball against Edmonton this past Saturday with 194 total yards on the ground.

The Eskimos also got off to a fast 7-1 SU start this season and rode that early success to an overall record of 12-6 both SU and ATS. Down the stretch they have gone 5-3 SU with a profitable 7-1 record ATS. The total has stayed UNDER in six of their last seven games.

Edmonton comes into the postseason with some injury concerns of its own at the quarterback position. Starter Mike Reilly, who threw for 3,327 yards and 16 touchdowns this season, remains questionable with a foot injury. In his place, Matt Nichols has thrown for 1,014 yards and four scores while completing 62.3 percent of his throws so the drop-off may not be that steep if Reilly cannot go.

Betting Trends
The Eskimos gone a solid 18-5 SU in their last 23 home games against the Roughriders and they have covered ATS in four of the last five meetings at Commonwealth Stadium. The total went OVER in four of those five games.

Edmonton also had a 2-1 edge both SU and ATS in this season’s series and the total stayed UNDER in all three contests.

Betting PredictionLast week’s loss will have little to no bearing to this week’s outcome as the Eskimos knew there was nothing on the line in that game. Playing on their home field this time around sets the stage for Edmonton’s continued dominance in this series with an impressive SU win. The betting odds for this game are currently “off the board”, but as long as the Eskimos are not favored by more than a touchdown, I really like their chances to cover ATS as well for your CFL picks.