The Global Leadership Vacuum

Will Angela Merkel’s Germany ensure that great-power cooperation does not deteriorate beyond the point of no return in the Trump era? The answer to that question will likely determine if the international order has any order to speak of in the years ahead.

MADRID – Germany and China are chief among the countries whose economic policies have drawn US President Donald Trump’s ire. While the United States has the largest current-account deficit in the world, Germany and China are running the largest surpluses, and that irritates Trump and his advisers to no end.

Trump’s top trade adviser, Peter Navarro, insists that China is suppressing the value of its currency, the renminbi. More surprisingly, Navarro has also accused Germany, an American ally, of “exploiting” the US and its European partners through an undervalued euro. Most economists agree that Navarro’s accusations are largely unfounded. Trump himself has flip-flopped on these issues, contradicting Navarro on occasion, even as he remains openly suspicious of US trade partners’ policies generally.

Since Trump was elected last year, Germany and China have also been chief among the countries expected to supplant US global leadership. But Germany and China are profoundly different, and there is no consensus on whether either country can or will fill America’s shoes.

Javier Solana was EU High Representative for Foreign and Security Policy, Secretary-General of NATO, and Foreign Minister of Spain. He is currently President of the ESADE Center for Global Economy and Geopolitics, Distinguished Fellow at the Brookings Institution, and a member of the World Economic Forum’s Global Agenda Council on Europe.

Javier Solana says China and Germany have drawn Trump's ire since he came to office, because he fumes at their current account surpluses, blaming the two countries for manipulating their currencies to boost exports. But he forgets that America's current account deficit reflects the low level of national savings. American households have accumulated a pile of debts for years, instead of squirreling money away for rainy days. The author maintains that America under Trump is retreating from the world stage, leaving a leadership vacuum behind to be filled. While there is speculation that China under President Xi Jinping might "supplant US global leadership," Germany's Chancellor, Angela Merkel was thrust into the limelight, facing calls to assume the mantle of leader of the Western world from Barack Obama and defend its liberal values. But China and Germany "are profoundly different" - one is a communist country that adopts state capitalism; the other is viewed as the best and most popular country in the world. While China is flexing its economic and military muscles abroad, Germany is still reluctant to claim global leadership. It is hard to say "whether either country can or will fill America’s shoes." But both Xi and Merkel have vowed to forge stronger ties "to solidify their leadership positions in the coming years."

Merkel's Achilles heel is her 2015 refugee policy, that has come back to haunt her. She has been "exposed to ferocious attacks – including from Trump himself – and energized the German far right," the AfD, which capitalises on fear and xenophobia to win support. The landslide win of this populist party, has much its anti-Islam and national-socialist rhetoric to thank for. In this respect, it is a shame that Germany is seeing a revival of Nazi ideology, because the country has painstakingly denounced its troubled past. The AfD has written history, with its representatives making the election threshold into the Bundestag the first time since World War II. It has been successful undermining the public's trust in mainstream politics and the political establishment. Its supporters live mainly in the former East Germany, and feel neglected by Berlin. They still dwell on the communist legacy and are lagging behind economically. Even if the AfD will not be part of Merkel's coalition government, it will certainly make a lot of noise and cause problems. There is a danger that Merkel, the "indispensable European" will be pre-occupied with domestic squabbling that she won't have time for the European project or global affairs. This will play into Putin's and Trump's hands. In fact Putin's scheme began in August 2015, when Merkel announced that Germany would open its borders for Syrian refugees. He then joined the bombing campaign in Syria a month later and ordered civilian areas be carpet-bombed, unleashing a mass exodus, and driving the displaced to Europe.Xi Jinping is said to be seeking to remain in power beyond his 10-year tenure, which expires in 2022. Next month the 19th National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) will convene to elect the next generation of leaders, that will take the helm in five years. Observers say if no successors be found, Xi will have an excuse to remain until 2027, or even 2032. In July, a man tipped by some as China’s future president had been purged by Xi for a "serious violation of discipline." The author says even if Xi maintains his iron grip on power at home, it remains to be seen whether he will be equally successful abroad, given China's lack of soft power. His "Chinese dream" reminds much of Trump's "America First." And China's territorial disputes in the East and South China Seas as well as its border dispute with India will have to be resolved in an lawful manner if Beijing wants to earn praise and admiration from the international community. No doubt the ongoing crisis on the Korean Peninsula offers China the best opportunity to demonstrate prowess and resolve it for the good of the world. Merkel and the EU could help salvage the nuclear deal with Iran, that Trump seeks to undo.

" With China’s economy slowing down in recent years, the CCP knows that it can no longer rely on growth alone to guarantee its political standing in the eyes of ordinary Chinese"

China's economy has accelerated in recent years, not slowed down. It has, in fact, doubled since 2007 and will redouble by 2027.

The CCP has NEVER relied on growth alone to guarantee its political standing in the eyes of ordinary Chinese. It has relied on its care of and responsiveness towards its people, which us why 86% of them say it works for everyone, not just a few.

Godfree. 86% of Chinese may well say it works for everybody but by that they mean everyone who is Chinese. I doubt you will find such enthusiastic endorsement outside China. Certainly a country which was little more than a decade ago building factories to plastinate corpses of unidentified origin for commercial sale is not fit to lead the world without considerable progress

THE TRUTH OF THE FRENCH QUAGMIREThe author rightly documents the ascendancy of Germany and China.Perhaps missing the geographic proximity - Berlin n Beijing - to The Big Bear.Merkel is fluent in Russian and NORDSTREAM 2 is not an accidental pipeline.China is at the other end of Putin pipelines - again not merely coincidence.Pax Americana has aligned Three protagonists - just like Pax Britannica had.The Germans are no longer DOWN, The Russians are no longer OUT.With Brexit and Brexit plus plus - Pax Americana and Pax Britannica no longer IN.The First Secretary General of NATO had described the three aims of NATO :Keep the Americans IN.Keep the Russians OUT.Keep the Germans DOWN.Thanks to Charles Degaulle - France redesigned The Anglosphere Agenda.ClubMed - led by France - pushed The Anglosphere away from The Atlantic.ClubRed - principally Moscow and Beijing - has grasped the opportunity.The Big Bear has changed ClubMed Agenda - flanked by Germany and China.

In pushing The Anglosphere away from The Atlantic - France is back as VichyLand.In the end - unable to stand up to Germany Russia China - France found Macron.Macron is fluent in English. Trudeau is fluent in English.The Canadian Destiny for the French - is perhaps plausibly their only salvation.America Britain France perhaps The Trinity - to secure exit from VichyLand.The Anglosphere will remain The Truth - that France will finally grasp.

New Comment

Pin comment to this paragraph

After posting your comment, you’ll have a ten-minute window to make any edits. Please note that we moderate comments to ensure the conversation remains topically relevant. We appreciate well-informed comments and welcome your criticism and insight. Please be civil and avoid name-calling and ad hominem remarks.

Log in/Register

Please log in or register to continue. Registration is free and requires only your email address.

Log in

Register

Emailrequired

PasswordrequiredRemember me?

Please enter your email address and click on the reset-password button. If your email exists in our system, we'll send you an email with a link to reset your password. Please note that the link will expire twenty-four hours after the email is sent. If you can't find this email, please check your spam folder.