Reading Dewi at Slugger O'Toole's analysis of the Scottish election results - and the fact the SNP were only a few thousand votes short of an even more stunning victory, such was the small size of the Lab/Con/Lib majority in a number of Holyrood seats - I was reminded of the fragility of a number of Conservative Westminster seats.

When examining our performance in last year's general election, an often over-looked fact is that many, almost certainly the majority, of Conservative MPs who won their seats last year from Labour, have smaller majorities than their Labour predecessors had in 1997.

This should be a cause for concern. If there was an election in a month's time, and even if the parties were level, at, say, 37%/37% and the Lib Dems on 10%, electoral calculators show Labour would win back tens of seats we gained last year.

Of course all members of the shadow cabinet will be travelling the length and breadth of the country during the campaign, but there will doubtless be particular interest in the constituencies which David Cameron visits. This will be a record of those visits (N.B. Target numbers are based on the figures of the notional majorities calculated by Profs Rallings and Thrasher at the University of Plymouth).

Wednesday 5th May Mr Cameron campaigned through the night, meeting night shift workers at WEC Engineering’s base in Rossendale and Darwen (Target 77), another visit to Ed Balls' Morley and Outwood seat (Target 196), where he went to a Morrisons supermarket distribution centre. By dawn he was with fishermen in the fishing port of Great Grimsby (Target 214). Then it was on to Nottinghamshire, visiting the Sir John Sherbrooke Junior School in Calverton in the Sherwood constituency (Target 152). By lunchtime he had travelled across to the West MIdlands to visit an ambulance station in Dudley North (Target 106). It was then on to Wales, where he paid a mid-afternoon visit to a school, Ysgol Daffyd Llwyd, in Montgomeryshire (Target 210) - meaning he has visited all four constituent parts of the UK in the last 24 hours. It was then on to Bristol for a final campaign rally (pictured) at Brunel's Old Station in the Bristol West consituency, whcih borders more marginal Bristol North West (Target 54) and Bristol East (Target 170).

Tuesday 4th May The day began with campaigning in Hendon (Target 73) for Matthew Offord, after which Mr Cameron flew to Northern Ireland to speak at a rally in Strangford, County Down. It is the seat that was held by Iris Robinson in the last Parliament for the DUP, but is being contested by Mike Nesbitt for the Conservaitves and Unionists at this election. It was then back in the air to travel to a rally in Renfrewshire East (Target 138) to support Richard Cook. He then travelled down the motorway to Carlisle (Target 132) where he visited night shift workers at the Carlisle Fire and Rescue station (pictured).

Monday 3rd MayA bank holiday, but a busy day for David Cameron, which started at the Chepstow Community Garden in Blackpool North and Cleveleys (Target 79) with local candidate Paul Maynard. He then went back to London where he visited the City of London Academy in the Bermondsey and Old Southwark constituency with Boris Johnson, Jeremy Hunt, Hugh Robertson and sports stars Gavin Hastings and James Cracknell to promote an Olympics-style school sports competition. He then addressed the Citizens UK Assembly in Westminster before being interviewed for Sky News by Adam Boulton - after which he addressed a rally in Feltham in the Feltham and Heston seat (Target 182) where Mark Bowen is the Tory candidate.

Sunday 2nd May After being interviewed by Andrew Marr, David Cameron headed for Cornwall, where he addressed a rally of supporters in Newquay in the new St Austell and Newquay (Target 119) constituency being contested by Caroline Righton. He then went up to North Wales where he went campaigning at a Tesco store in Holywell in Delyn (Target 186) with local candidate Antoinette Sandbach.

Saturday 1st MayThe first visit of the day was to the Lister General Hospital in Stevenage (Target 72) with candidate Stephen McPartland. He then spent some time campaigning in Woodstock in his own Witney constituency before going to Dagenham and Rainham (Target 151) where he visited the Rush Green Medical Centre before addressing a party rally with locsal candidate Simon Jones.

Eric Pickles MP returns to Crewe and Nantwich for the first time since May's historic by-election victory.

During the Crewe and Nantwich by election I had always assumed that a know it all central Labour Party has imposed vicious crass class hatred campaign on a reluctant local Party. I was wrong, and would like to make this public apology; no the Labour Whips and the Party apparatchiks found Crewe Labour’s inner soul.

Labour has picked a new candidate to replace the defeated Dunwoody, in his first press release to get any coverage he attacks the Conservative MP and local hero Edward Timpson, for being lazy and continuing to work as a barrister – not true of course – but when did the actuality ever get in the way of a Labour smear campaign.

Judging from the local reaction to the smear be must be regretting the ill judged release. The local paper’s letters columns are full of people defending Edwards’s hard work and from the moment you arrive in the town you have no doubt who is the MP and that he is working for everyone.

In the centre of town a shop window next to a white portcullis stands the name Edward Timpson MP in bold letters. Ex canvassers will remember this as the central campaign office which Edward has taken over has his main constituency office. The last time I had seen it the room had been packed with blue balloons. I am back for the first time since the exciting days of early summer to officially open the office.

People who travelled from across the country in May should feel proud; Edward has more than fulfilled his election pledges: weekly surgeries spread around the constituency, a report-back newspaper, regular column in the local press and a willingness to help anyone is the hallmark of this new Conservative MP. He is fighting hard against two local closures the sorting office and the tax office. Last week he was thrown out of the tax offices for daring to enquire after his constituent’s jobs. Undaunted he continued the meeting in the park outside.

Waiting for my train back to London I bumped into someone I met during the campaign he said, “You probably don’t remember me but we met in Crewe Market when you introduced me to Mr Timpson. I had my doubts about voting Tory, but you said I should give him a chance, well I did, I voted Tory for the first time ever. I have no regrets and I will be voting for him to finally get rid of Brown when the time comes.” I suspect that he is not alone and that Edward will be MP for Crewe and Nantwich for many decades to come.

2.45pm Good news update: "I have just been contacted by the Labour candidate for Crewe and Nantwich who assures me he never said that Edward Timpson was "lazy" and that he "never would". I'm happy to clarify this comment, and delighted that Edward's hard work for the people of Crewe and Nantwich is even recognised by the opposition. Well done Edward, and keep it up."

With apologies for the grainy image but a bakers in Nantwich (the most Tory part of C&N) has been holding a straw poll on voting intentions. And based on the purchase of Tory, Labour and LibDem gingerbread men it's looking good for the Conservatives!

The blackboard looks about 50 Tory gingerbread men, 6 Labour and 5 LibDems. Britain's pollsters will be worried at this new innovation.

:-)

Owen Paterson MP is also hopeful for a good turnout from the area of Crewe that he was leafletting from 3.45am to 8.15am this morning. His patch included Cameron Avenue, Osbourne Grove and Ashcroft Avenue.

'Don't assume victory, work for it' was a favourite motto of Margaret Thatcher. That motto lives on in today's Conservative Party. Taking nothing for granted 120 Conservative volunteers were on the streets of Crewe and Nantwich at 4am this morning for a 'dawn raid'. A final get-out-the-vote leaflet was popped through thousands of voters' doors. Here is a wide-awake Eric Pickles (with Mark Simmonds MP) with that 'Good morning, send Gordon Brown a message' leaflet:

Also up early delivering were another Pickles - Ant (no relation) - and Michael Fabricant MP:

Some of you should be tabloid headline writers. In yesterday's thread englandism suggested some of the headlines that might greet the result that we all hope for (and many are still working very hard for). That inspired a few of you to think of your own headlines. Here are the five best:

BROWN HIT BY CREWE'S MISSILE (Englandism)

CREWECIFIED (James Burdett)

ALL CHANGE AT CREWE (Man in a Shed)

GORDON S'CREWED BY 10P FIASCO (Serf)

And just so Nantwich doesn't feel left out... GORDON BROWN IS DEAD NAN TWITCHING (Andrew Lilico).

See the graphic below to note that both NO2ID and the TaxPayers' Alliance advertised online during the campaign. The TPA urged people to vote for lower taxes and NO2ID quoted Gwyneth Dunwood's concerns about ID cards. You'll note that the LibDems' Elizabeth Shenton is also e-vertising.

The Conservative team in Crewe and Nantwich are reporting that volunteer numbers for the C&N by-election have broken all records but that there is still work to do. If you can help in any way in these final 24 hours please email [email protected].

A few other observations:

Betting on a Tory victory may have closed but Ladbrokes are speculating as to whether Labour might come third. Tories are dismissing this idea and saying that only a vote for Edward Timpson can send Gordon Brown the message he needs to hear.

Journalists are already hearing excuses from inside the Labour camp in Crewe and Nantwich. Guess who they are blaming for the expected poor result? Yep: one James Gordon Brown.

The local elections count in C&N on 1st May was slow and we're expecting it to be slow again. Don't expect a result until 3am on Friday morning. We'll be up, live blogging. Stay up with us! Please email if you can help moderate the live chatroom we're planning.

PoliticsHome are offering a £500 prize for the person who most accurately predicts the winner of the Crewe and Nantwich by-election. Click here to take part.

Labrokes, incidentally, have suspended betting on the race. A spokesman said: "If the Parties were boxers they wouldn't be allowed in the same ring at the moment. It is so uncompetitive that politics punters have given up."

PS Just a thought but did ITV's Headcases provide inspiration for Labour's C&N campaign?

A poll by ComRes for today's Independent puts the Tories 13% ahead. The Conservatives are on 48% and Labour are on 35%. The poll confirms that C&N is a two horse race; the LibDems are on just 12%.

ComRes also found that Crewe & Nantwich's voters were very unimpressed with Gordon Brown... and very impressed with David Cameron:

***The poll comes as the Tories highlight concern at more dirty tricks - possibly coming from Labour activists. According to The Telegraph, there is concern that "Labour activists have been posing as Tories and calling voters at 4am. They are said to have told residents that Tories have been campaigning in Bentley cars."

***Posted below are the some more images from the campaign trail, the bottom two taken by Michael Fabricant MP who is coordinating the involvement of MPs, Peers and MEPs.

Included in the pictures are MPs Owen Paterson, Peter Lilley, Adam Afriye, Robert Walter and Tobias Ellwood. MPs have been involved in every aspect of the campaign: stuffing envelopes, writing out labels,leafleting and canvassing.

Not sure of the effectiveness of Labour's Alex Ferguson poster. Not everyone supports MU! One Arsenal supporter was very unhappy about it.

One person told one of our team that they were definitely voting for "Tamsin Outhwaite"!

Real evidence that voters have had enough of this campaign. They've been 'Iowa'ed' with masses of leaflets, rings of the doobell and phone calls. The quality of the Tory literature is the best the ConHome coach party have ever seen from our party but it's close to being too much of a good thing.

Hat-tip to Islington Tories for providing 5 members of our party of 47. (Promised them we'd mention that).

This seat is definitely winnable because of the A1 operation being run by Stephen Gilbert and Eric Pickles. We'll know on Friday morning if it was enough.

Boris will be pleased that no alcohol was consumed on the homeward journey.

6.01pm: Most of the team before we got on the bus to return home at 5.30pm (click to enlarge):

2.52pm: Should have mentioned that most of us were out canvassing/ leafletting within ten minutes of arriving at our "sector HQ" - it's a very efficient operation here... but not everyone wanted our literature:

1.36pm: All activists are now on the campaign trail - delivering leaflets or canvassing. No stopping for lunch. We all ate on the coach. Our base camp is a pub which is displaying posters for all three main parties. Some disappointment here that that doesn't include posters of Miss Great Britain.

The ConHome coach is on its way to Crewe. 47 passengers. 4 boxes of Krispy Kremes consumed (48 donuts). 9 copies of The Sunday Times being read. Six Sunday Telegraphs. Two Mail on Sundays. One Observer. According to reliable reports there were 400 Conservative activists in the constituency yesterday. Tamsin Dunwoody could only boast of half as many Labour activists. Will report more as the day progresses. This is the current view from the 'Hare Express' (although there are a few tortoises on board):

The greed of New Labour: "Thanks to the recent publication of memoirs by John Prescott, Cherie Blair and Lord Levy, it is becoming obvious to everyone the extent to which New Labour has been driven by private greed and personal vendetta, rather than decency and public duty. To underline this point, it was revealed last week that the Blairs have purchased their seventh home - a £4million mansion in Buckinghamshire. The truth is that Tony and Cherie Blair can afford their growing property portfolio purely because they have both ruthlessly exploited the office of prime minister for purposes of self-enrichment."

The mudthrowing Ken Livingstone: "The campaign to keep Ken Livingstone in office as London mayor, as I have repeatedly highlighted in this column, was dominated by systematic lying and blatant corruption, as well as by the use of unfair personal attacks on his Conservative rival Boris Johnson".

Class war in Crewe and Nantwich: "Labour has cynically decided not to fight on policy issues. Instead, party bosses have ordered a series of cheap and shoddy attacks on the Conservative candidate Edward Timpson. For example, fake photographs are being distributed of him wearing a top hat. Labour campaign literature also contains pictures of what is described as his 'big mansion house' just outside the constituency. This is nothing more than malicious class war."

Labour's race-based campaign in Crewe: "Dunwoody is circulating a 'Tory candidate application form' around Nantwich. It asks: "Do you oppose making foreign nationals carry an ID card?" Actually, as Dunwoody well knows, the Tories are opposed to ID cards for all citizens, and not just for foreigners. As such, Labour is spotlighting this one very narrow aspect about foreigners in order to press the racist button with voters."

Brown is responsible for this: "All the evidence shows that Labour's disgusting electioneering methods come from the very top. Last September, I listened in shock as Gordon Brown utilised the language of the British National Party to promise 'British jobs for British workers' in his first speech as Labour leader at his party conference."

In other news from Crewe and Nantwich...

David Cameron was overheard promising to go canvassing in Nuneaton. He meant to say, of course, that he was about to go canvassing in Nantwich. The Guardian's Michael White was there to record the Conservative leader's slip but also, more importantly, his reaction:

"All public figures make such slips. It matters more when a visiting dignitary - preferably a US president - gets the name of a small country wrong live on national TV. No chance of a retake there.

What was interesting was Cameron's own response. As I recall it he raised his hands in mock-horror, turned around without pausing and stuck his head in the nearest bush. I thought it was funny, both self-deprecating and self-confident, a Monty Python-inspired moment.

We like our politicians to be human (not too human, mind you), and most try to be, albeit with varying success. I thought this was a glimpse of how Dave must be with his kids and thought the better of him for it."

So, even if we don't win C&N, the Pythonesque-Cameron has at least won the affection of a Guardian journalist.

PS Iain Dale is just back from Crewe and has written a list of observations including "I didn't see a single LibDem or Labour campaigner on the streets in the entire time I was there."

Our campaign team in Crewe and Nantwich is telling us that Labour are "hiding" their leaflets from journalists! Reporters are repeatedly asking our campaign team for copies of Labour leaflets. Labour are, it seems, very aware that their class-based campaigning is going down like a lead balloon. They are also hiding Tamsin Dunwoody from TV journalists to avoid any more interviews like this.

Pasted below are the front and back pages of a new leaflet being distributed by the Conservatives. A large newspaper - entitled 'Change' - is also being distributed. We hope to publish extracts of that later, or tomorrow.

PS Sunday's ConservativeHome 48 seater coach is fully-booked. If you still want to help but can't physically get to C&N please email [email protected] and volunteer to do some telephone canvassing.

It's becoming increasingly clear that the Liberal Democrats have more or less abandoned Crewe and Nantwich. They are still working a couple of wards according to Tory sources so they achieve a respectable result but they know that only the Conservatives or Labour can win the seat.

This is obviously good news for the campaign in Crewe but we must get on with selecting our candidate in Henley. Henley isn't included in the new tranche of selecting seats - just released. Why are we waiting? The LibDems have just adopted their candidate. We shouldn't be giving him the opportunity to make inroads.

"When I canvassed in Crewe for Patrick Rock in the 1980s, as an eager beaver, it was somewhat disheartening to be told to f*** off by staunch Labour supporters. It was quite extraordinary last night to meet Labour voters who are openly switching.

A 40 year old woman told me: "My family have been trade unionists and Labour for 100 years - my
Granny would turn in her grave but we're voting Conservative this time."

A 35 year old man told me: "I've voted Labour all my life but they can stick it this time."

Alternatively, they are clearly stating that they are undecided but are reading our literature and admitting that they like what they read about our candidate. It must be unprecedented that busy, hard working people are spending so much time reading our leaflets so carefully when in so many other elections I have helped with, they have put them straight in the bin. In the brand new estates where I picked up the quotes last night, the Labour toff attack is backfiring miserably, the attitude being that "If Edward Timpson has made a success of his life then good for him - that's what it's all about." Labour are also losing support by telephone canvassing with real aggression. I am genuinely looking forward to getting back as soon as possible after Northern Ireland Questions. Crewe and Nantwich has always been known locally as a Labour seat but I have never had such a reception as I had last night."

Nine days until Crewe and Nantwich vote. On CentreRight yesterday evening Louise Bagshawe described the buzz of activity on the ground. Today's national newspapers also carry a number of reports on this important by-election. David Cameron was there again yesterday and attacked Labour's attempt to fight a class war-based campaign. Labour do, however, now appear to be retreating a little from this much-derided approach. Google click ads paid for by Labour were entitled 'Tory Boy Timpson'. They are now using 'Tamsin Dunwoody - one of us' instead. ...Even though she lives in Wales! Labour are also having problem with their candidate's name. They've corrected it now but they mis-spelt Tamsin as Tamsyn on the official campaign website:

It's not as bad as the "excellance for all" that recently appeared on one Labour site.

Ben Brogan noted yesterday that all frontbenchers risk their job if they don't campaign at least three times. Candidates are also under pressure. They received this message from John Maples MP:

"We expect those candidates to help unless you have some compelling excuse. We are keeping a record of who helps and how much, so make sure you stay in our good books!"

One candidate who has been active in Crewe described the email as "clumsy bullying".

37 people have now pledged to come on the ConservativeHome London to Crewe coach. There's still room for more! If you cannot make it to Crewe & Nantwich in person, you can help out either at the CCHQ call centre or by making calls from home. To confirm, please send an e-mail to [email protected] with “call centre” or “home calls” in the subject line.

Posted below is a latest Tory leaflet. The two-sided communication targets the bread and butter issues of tax and living costs. Click on the images to enlarge them.

Even LabourHome
is admitting that Gordon Brown's Crewe by-election campaign is
"disgusting":

"The class warfare stuff, although cheap, is bording just
about acceptable; but one thing horrified me (on an election leaflet):
"Do you oppose making foreign nationals carry and ID card?" Regardless
of the fact that I oppose ID cards in anyway, shape or form (the mere
idea is distinctly alien to Britain) - "making", "foreign nationals" is
the language of the [far] right."

At the time of posting this there are 27 people signed up to join the ConservativeHome coach trip from London to Crewe this coming Sunday, 18th May although a good number of others are making their way to the by-election from other parts of the country. It would be great to get closer to 40 for the coach. We'll be leaving Westminster at about 9am on Sunday. Please email us if you'd like to come along and contribute to what we hope will be the first Tory by-election gain for 26 years.

With your help he could be. ConservativeHome is organising a coach next Sunday (18th) from London to Crewe. We've got about twenty people who have said 'yes' so far to joining us. Please click here for information about coming along too.

A shadow cabinet minister told ConservativeHome yesterday that the by-election campaign in Crewe was the best organised that he'd ever seen. He said there is no waiting around - like in so many previous campaigns he has attended but there's an almost immediate tasking once you arrive at the Tory campaign HQ, just ten minutes from Crewe railway station.

The Conservatives have already distributed two leaflets. We republished one yesterday. And now we're seeing this bar chart distributed throughout the seat - based on these numbers from last Thursday's local election results.

IT'S CLEAR THAT THIS SEAT CAN BE WON. LET'S PUT SOME ICING ON LAST THURSDAY'S CAKE AND MAKE EDWARD TIMPSON THE NEXT MP FOR CREWE AND NANTWICH.

If you can get to Crewe and Nantwich to help between now and the 22nd May please call 07594 567273 or email [email protected].

"Mrs Pickles was promised a lavish holiday after the local elections campaign, and I'm delighted to report that she's loving Crewe and Nantwich."

BB reports that the Conservatives are already on their third leaflet drop. We had only heard of two leaflet drops in three days but it may be that Ben is better informed. Whatever: It's an impressive start to a campaign being coordinated by Mr Eric Pickles and Stephen Gilbert.

Here is an example of the latest campaign literature - click to enlarge:

And so, to repeat, and not for the last time: If you can get to Crewe and Nantwich to help between now and the 22nd May please call 07594 567273 or email [email protected].

We learnt overnight that Gwyneth Dunwood's daughter, Tamsin, has been adopted by the Crewe and Nantwich Labour Party as its candidate to succeed her mother. Tory candidate Edward Timpson has wasted no time in trying to present the Labour candidate as an "outsider"* - living 175 miles away - who, unlike her mother, won't stand up to Gordon Brown:

“I’d like to congratulate Tamsin Dunwoody on becoming the Labour Party candidate in Crewe and Nantwich. And I look forward to a campaign in which we can really debate the issues that matter to people in Crewe and Nantwich. As a local man, who has lived and worked in the area all my life, I understand the worries and concerns of local people.

“At a time when families are struggling with rising food, petrol and utility bills, they need help with the cost of living. But Gordon Brown hit them when he got rid of the 10p tax band. When violent crime in the local area has trebled, we need the police on the beat, not behind desks. When local services are threatened with closure, we need an MP who campaigns to keep them open. And we need more support for local services, with the NHS, local housing and schools under pressure because of increases in the population.

“Above all, we need an MP who will stand up to Gordon Brown and his Government. Tamsin Dunwoody’s career in the Welsh Assembly suggests she won’t do that. The only way you can send a message to Gordon Brown is by voting for me on May 22nd.”

If you can get to Crewe and Nantwich to help between now and the 22nd May please call 07594 567273 or email [email protected].

Boris Johnson's seven month abstention from alcohol may end tonight - whatever the result - but the Conservative Party's campaigning operation will continue to motor. Two by-elections are likely to test the party machine in the coming weeks: one is a certain, in Crewe, and the second is likely, in Henley.

The Times reports that "Boris Johnson will remain an Oxfordshire MP for up to a year if he becomes Mayor of London in the closest race since the post was created in 2000". That is not our understanding. We are expecting the Henley by-election to happen very quickly should Boris win. CCHQ do not want to give the LibDem candidate lots of time to mount a serious challenge.

Meanwhile, up in Crewe and Nantwich, the local Conservative Association Chairman, Donald Potter, has today written to his Labour oppositew number pledging a pause in active campaigning "during Gwyneth Dunwoody’s funeral on Thursday 8 May, and for an appropriate period of time either side."

Tory candidate Edward Timpson issued this statement:

“Gwyneth Dunwoody was a much-loved and well respected Member of Parliament. We fully respect her family’s decision to have a swift by-election campaign. All the parties will want to make the most of the time between now and 22 May, as there won’t be long for voters to make up their mind about who Crewe & Nantwich’s next MP should be. However, as it’s unusual for a by-election campaign to be in full swing during the funeral of the previous MP, we felt it would be respectful to pause campaigning next Thursday afternoon and for an appropriate time either side of the service. My Association Chairman has written to the local Labour Chairman today to let him know our intentions.”

The Western Mail has some background on Tamzin Dunwoody - the late MP's daughter - and the likely Labour candidate for Crewe.

Within his UKPR piece he notes that the LibDem candidate has had to resign. This, apparently, is their normal practice for by-elections. The theory is that a person deemed right to fight a seat the party is unlikely to win in a General Election might be a different person from who the party would want to represent it when the seat is being fought as a by-election with all of the associated national publicity.

What do you think of the Conservatives adopting the same rule?

By all accounts our already selected candidate - Edward Timpson - is performing well (including, as the photo suggests, campaigning on the hot issue of post office closures). He lives in the area, although just outside of the constituency, and has been campaigning effectively since being selected. But is there a case in future (not for this contest) for local party members to be invited to reconsider their decision in the event of a by-election. We emphasise the need for "local party members" to keep the final say. What do readers think?

"Edward is an excellant choice, we have got to know him well as a member of our team, what is our loss is most certainly Crewe and Nantwich's gain. We wish him well and come the General Election I am sure Edward will be heading to Westminster."