Of the 36 games played so far in the group stages of the competition, Goldman has had a 36.11% success rate in predicting the direction of the games. Its model, you might remember, is based on data gathered from mandatory international football matches since 1960.

So, taking the results so far into account, the bank has updated its predictions for the 16 teams that make up the knockout stages of the competition. Goldman still predicts that Brazil will win, but it now thinks it will face the Netherlands, and not Argentina in the final. The updates table shows the USA making it through to the Group of 16 stage, whereas previous estimates expected it to be knocked out at the initial group stages. Spain, which Goldman thought would reach the semi-finals, of course has gone. Fifty percent of the names in its updated predictions for the next four stages of the tournament are new.

What the results underscore is that past performance on the football pitch is not a reliable indicator of future success. Yet, Goldman was right in downplaying England’s chances. The team may still leave the competition without a single win, as Goldman had predicted.