Gameday: Nuggets @ Raptors, December 1st

As the calendar turns to December, the Raptors (6-9) continue their homestand against the house that Masai built, the Denver Nuggets (9-6). Unfortunately, turning the calendar to December means that I’m swamped with end-of-term schoolwork (for the final time in my life though, fortunately), and so this preview’s going to be a bit more abbreviated than usual. Instead of reading through my questionable-value-add preamble, let’s just get down to brass tax:

The line is off on this game as Kenneth Faried is still day-to-day – and if he can’t play, expect the Raptors to have a big advantage on the boards. Danilo Gallinari is still out, too, and so it’s going to be tough for the Nuggets to match the Raps in terms of wing scoring if Rudy Gay even has a semi-passable game. I’m going to say Raptors by 4 as they end their losing skid and take control of the Atlantic once again, with the Lowry/Lawson matchup being the game’s pivotal one.

Again, apologies for the brevity of this post. I’ll make it up to you all with Raptor-themed Christmas carols.

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This I can explain. His low usage rate when he is on the floor minimize his impact on team stats, such as team O/D rating and even plus minus (since that stat also accounts for the other members of the rotation. However, when he is being used, his individual stats, or the stats that are only dependant on his contributions, he looks pretty good, pretty great even.

Basically, like what everyone else has been saying, it comes down to usage rate. Involve him enough in the offense and there's no reason why his individual efficiency won't be reflected in the team stats.

Now here's where you might say "but the raptors lose more when he shoots more than average, so the usage rate argument doesn't hold up". That's a fair point, but I would argue that Jonas often gets those extra field goals when A) the guards are putting up a ton of bricks and Jonas is cleaning the glass, or B) he's a last resort after its clear that the other scoring options aren't working. In both scenarios, the team as a whole is playing below average, so it makes sense that they would win a lower percentage of games.