Monday, October 15, 2012

Women Voters In Swing States Push Romney Ahead...

by: Les Carpenter
Rational Nation USA
Liberty -vs- Tyranny

Could it be possible? Female support for Romney in the all critical Swing States maybe holding the keys to a Romney win? Another strong debate performance could tip the scales further for Romney. As the race goes down the stretch it's now a sure bet the Obama Team is biting their fingernails. Or knuckles...

USA Today — Mitt Romney leads President Obama by five percentage points among likely voters in the nation's top battlegrounds, a USA TODAY/Gallup Poll finds, and he has growing enthusiasm among women to thank.

As the presidential campaign heads into its final weeks, the survey of voters in 12 crucial swing states finds female voters much more engaged in the election and increasingly concerned about the deficit and debt issues that favor Romney. The Republican nominee now ties the president among women who are likely voters, 48%-48%, while he leads by 12 points among men.

The battle for women, which was apparent in the speakers spotlighted at both political conventions this summer, is likely to help define messages the candidates deliver at the presidential debate Tuesday night and in the TV ads they air during the final 21 days of the campaign. As a group, women tend to start paying attention to election contests later and remain more open to persuasion by the candidates and their ads.

That makes women, especially blue-collar "waitress moms" whose families have been hard-hit by the nation's economic woes, the quintessential swing voters in 2012's close race.

"In every poll, we've seen a major surge among women in favorability for Romney" since his strong performance in the first debate, veteran Democratic pollster Celinda Lake says. "Women went into the debate actively disliking Romney, and they came out thinking he might understand their lives and might be able to get something done for them."

While Lake believes Obama retains an edge among women voters, the changed views of Romney could be "a precursor to movement" to the Republican candidate, she says. "It opens them up to take a second look, and that's the danger for Obama."

Female voters are a critical part of the president's coalition. Four years ago, he led Republican rival John McCain by a single point among men, according to surveys of voters as they left polling places. The decisive Democratic margin of victory came from women, who supported Obama by 13 points.

Now, the USA TODAY/Gallup Poll shows Romney leading Obama 51%-46% among likely voters in the swing states. Men who are likely voters back him 54%-42%. The states are Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin.

Romney pollster Neil Newhouse says the poll shows "encouraging movement" in the wake of the first debate in Denver. Obama pollster Joel Benenson calls the method used to identify likely voters flawed.

"In the last election, Gallup's registered voter model — not its likely voter model — was a much more accurate predictor, with their likely model missing the mark in 2010 by 9 points right before the election," Benenson says. "That explains why Gallup's results are way out of line with a dozen recent swing state polls that show the president with a double-digit lead among women."

Among all registered voters in the survey, Obama leads by nine points among women and by two points overall, 49%-47%.

The poll of 1,023 registered voters, including 869 likely voters, was taken Oct. 5-11 — just after the first presidential debate and before the second one in Hempstead, N.Y. It is the 10th in USA TODAY's series of surveys in the swing states that, in the Electoral College system, are likely to determine the outcome. For the first time, with Election Day looming, the poll includes a screen to identify likely voters.

Romney's improved standing among female voters is "likely to cause major consternation among Obama supporters," says Richard Eichenberg, a Tufts University political scientist who is studying gender differences in state-level polling with Elizabeth Robinson. "If Mr. Romney has tied President Obama among women in swing states, then he has likely taken a step toward winning the election.

"But a word of caution is necessary," Eichenberg adds. "Although swing states share many similarities, President Obama's support among women is holding up well in some of them and less well in others. For example, his support among women is largely unchanged since the first debate in Ohio and Wisconsin, but it is definitely down in Colorado, Virginia and Florida." {Read More}

13 comments:

Women voters have a tendency to be stereotyped (the left apparently thinks that they're all a bunch of Sandra Flukes) and, who knows, during a period of economic hardship, abortion, etc., maybe won't be as important to them.

I live in a "swing state" and happen to work with a working class woman in here early 60's. She finds Romney off-putting but can not abide the Democrats position on gay marriage and abortion. She's a "values voter," and her values focus on conservative Christian social policy. Otherwise, she's a progressive. But the former overrides the latter.

On the other hand, I work with a few younger women, in their thirties and forties, and they all plan on voting for Obama.

I think, perhaps, in these "swing states" we have a lot of older women (a strong "likely voter" bloc) who will hold their nose and vote for Romney for reasons that people like you or I, Les, seem rather pointless, if not abhorrent.

I think too, that many of these women, especially if polled by phone at home, are going to say what they believe their husbands want them to say - but when it comes to the privacy of the booth, they'll make a better vote in their best interests.

For the working class, there's only one real choice in this election, and that's Obama.

There exists NO real choice in this election for the working class and middle class. You see jmj it is the oligarchs behind the curtains that have the power and are pulling the puppet strings. Of both candidates. Whoever gets elected not much will change, except that which the oligarchs decide needs tweaking.

Healthcare, consumer credit, student loans, housing, education - these are real issues to real people and there are huge differences between Romney and Obama on these issues. Obama is better on these issues for the common working family than Romney. Period.

JMJ: I checked each issue, and Romney has better ideas on all, for working families. Starting with healthcare, where Obama has his nasty mandate to force families to pay $10 a year to corporations in order to buy something they don't need. Or consumer credit, where Obama's fascist power grab outlawed private sector college loans. Now there is no choice. Or consumer credit, where Obama's pollicies have forced banks to raise fees and interest rates.

Working families side with me, JMJ, and most now reject Obama's agenda.

The above amount should be $10,000. The average cost of an insurance plan (lowballed, really). Obama is a bully to command families to divert money from college, food, and other needs to pay for this optional product.

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