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What Could Possibly Go Wrong?

Ukraine is not a member nation of NATO. We have an agreement to help them, between Ukraine and the USA, but that sort of thing has never stopped us from letting a supposed ally be overrun by communists before. Ukraine is set to lose its Eastern half, or at least a land bridge between Russia and the Crimea, and there is very little Ukraine can do about it but waste men and money trying to stop the Russian-backed “rebels.” There is currently no major military power-house nation officially involved in this conflict. On the face of it, we have a civil war in Ukraine and it’s “nobody’s business but the Turks” what happens there. Russia is officially not involved and we are also officially not involved. But

General Hodges, commander of our Army in Europe, went to Ukraine and said we are sending a “small number” of “trainers” to Ukraine. This of course is a euphemism. It is telegraphing our intent to Russia not to simply allow them to have their way in Ukraine. Small numbers of training personnel have a tendency to turn into larger numbers of special forces operators, followed by conventional forces in the increasingly-possible run-up to full scale 3rd Generation Warfare. Leaving aside for the moment that the “rebels” of the DNR are somewhere into 4th Generation Warfare and that it is very hard to win a 4GW conflict with 3GW actions – this is entirely possibly going to turn into President Obama’s Vietnam. IF he doesn’t act smartly.

First, don’t be surprised to hear next week/month/year that we are going to “lend” our support to Ukraine with unmanned drones or even manned warplanes dropping death on the “rebel” forces. Of course they have no money to pay us back but what’s a few billion dollars between friends, right?

Second, remember that Russia supposedly was acting in the interests of ethnic Russians when they swarmed in and overran Georgia with military force. And that Russia killed off the anti-communist Ukrainians in the East of Ukraine after their Revolution, and repopulated the region with ethnic Russians.

Third, remember to snort derisively when someone reports this escalation of military tensions as “unexpected”. As long ago as two thousand years, we were warned not to be troubled by “rumors of wars” – but anyone paying even a little attention sees the very real possibility of World War Three starting over this little civil war growing up and having babies.