Brighton v Millwall: hosts to succumb to Lions taming

Brighton’s home record leaves a lot to be desired in the Championship this term

Brighton may be the 11/10 favourites for this Tuesday evening clash with Millwall but they will struggle to pick up all three points at the AMEX.

There are only three points separating Brighton in eighth and the Lions in the final play-off place and everything points to this game being just as tight as their relative league positions suggest.

Their first meeting earlier this season saw Brighton win 2-1 at the New Den, but both of last season’s meetings ended level and that looks like the match outcome worth lumping on at a pretty decent 23/10.

The Seagulls have drawn their last two league games, making it eight draws in their previous 14 matches.

They also have a rather poor home record in the Championship, having won just four of their 11 games so far on the south coast. However, even that’s deceptive when considering a punt on this clash – all of those victories have come against teams who currently occupy the bottom four places.

Their three home games against teams currently in the top 10 have seen them draw two and lose one – and they haven’t so much as found the net in those trio of clashes.

Meanwhile, Millwall have won just one of their four away games against teams who are in the top half, drawing away to Watford and Crystal Palace.

With neither of the sides in exactly the best run of form, backing the draw – which neither of them would be devastated with – at 23/10 looks like a cracking bet.

Finally, with Brighton boasting the best home defence in the division, backing under 2.5 goals at 5/6 could also be worth a cheeky punt.