Aside from the comments on Yakupov, the most interesting comments to me in Steve Tambellini’s last press conference were the ones on the Oilers’ goaltending situation. Tambellini confirmed that Nikolai Khabibulin would be back, and praised his veteran goaltender.

Asked by Bob Stauffer whether or not Devan Dubnyk was a starter, Tambellini answered this way:

Only to the point, Bob, where maybe he hasn’t done it long enough. In peoples’ minds, they see the potential. I know he wants it, I know he wants it badly. I’ve always said to both him and Khabby, ‘I don’t care who it is, just somebody take the net.’ If I’m saying that to a young guy, and if I’m a young player and my manager has told me, he’s given me the green light that if you’re playing that well it’s your net, go take it, I’m pretty excited. I like what I saw the last third of the season, I liked his poise. I liked the way he handled, you know playing once a week or every two games here and then sitting five games is much different from managing your energy, confidence levels, expectations from the rest of the team that ‘we need someone to be in a post that can help us win every night, give us a chance to win every night.’ So there were good signs.

The first sentence of that quote is the one that jumps out at me. Dubnyk’s career save percentage in the NHL is 0.910, which is right around the league average and compares favourably to guys like Marc-Andre Fleury (0.912) and Martin Brodeur (0.910) in the same span.

On Khabibulin, Tambellini was definitive, saying “We’ll have Nik back.” Asked what role Khabibulin would return in, he expanded on that statement:

You know, when I talked to Nik in his post season exit meetings, he told me he wants to play another four or five years. I said ‘You feel that good Nik?’ and he said ‘Well why not?’ So, by him saying that to me, he’s still feeling the compete and the challenge. I think guys like Nik Khabibulin need to be, or like to be, challenged or motivated, they’re not afraid of it. So Devan’s poised right now to take games from him and I love the fact his plan is to get the net back.

Khabibulin and Dubnyk both started playing for the Oilers in 2009-10. Here’s the list of active NHL goalies (minimum 50 GP) and their save percentages since that season, with Khabibulin and Dubnyk bolded:

Rk

Player

GP

W

L

T/O

SV%

1

Cory Schneider

60

36

13

3

0.932

2

Tuukka Rask

97

44

34

10

0.927

3

Tim Thomas

159

87

48

18

0.926

4

Henrik Lundqvist

203

110

72

20

0.924

5

Pekka Rinne

195

108

56

22

0.922

6

Tomas Vokoun

168

70

73

18

0.922

7

Ryan Miller

196

106

61

23

0.921

8

Jaroslav Halak

148

79

46

19

0.920

9

Roberto Luongo

183

109

51

19

0.920

10

Evgeni Nabokov

113

63

34

13

0.919

11

Ilya Bryzgalov

196

111

56

23

0.918

12

Carey Price

178

77

76

22

0.918

13

Jonathan Quick

202

109

67

23

0.918

14

Cam Ward

189

85

72

28

0.918

15

Jonas Hiller

181

85

69

19

0.917

16

Jimmy Howard

183

109

49

19

0.917

17

Kari Lehtonen

140

72

50

15

0.917

18

Miikka Kiprusoff

214

107

74

27

0.916

19

Jason LaBarbera

53

18

20

7

0.916

20

Antti Niemi

167

95

47

19

0.916

21

Mike Smith

131

64

42

18

0.916

22

Craig Anderson

185

95

67

17

0.915

23

Johan Hedberg

108

53

35

10

0.915

24

Semyon Varlamov

106

52

37

14

0.915

25

Jose Theodore

132

67

34

21

0.914

26

Niklas Backstrom

157

67

64

20

0.912

27

Scott Clemmensen

84

31

25

15

0.912

28

Marc-Andre Fleury

199

115

58

15

0.912

29

Josh Harding

59

22

24

4

0.912

30

James Reimer

71

34

24

9

0.911

31

Martin Brodeur

192

99

72

13

0.910

32

Corey Crawford

115

63

36

13

0.910

33

Devan Dubnyk

101

36

43

13

0.910

34

Brian Elliott

148

67

55

17

0.910

35

Michal Neuvirth

103

49

29

9

0.910

36

Sergei Bobrovsky

83

42

23

10

0.909

37

Jean-Sebastien Giguere

100

36

37

14

0.909

38

Ondrej Pavelec

168

64

69

25

0.909

39

Brent Johnson

62

29

18

6

0.907

40

Andrew Raycroft

50

19

18

1

0.907

41

Ray Emery

73

38

22

5

0.906

42

Martin Biron

67

29

26

6

0.905

43

Chris Mason

114

51

42

12

0.905

44

Al Montoya

51

18

16

10

0.905

45

Antero Niittymaki

73

33

25

8

0.905

46

Marty Turco

87

35

33

14

0.905

47

Brian Boucher

77

28

34

8

0.904

48

Dan Ellis

85

37

28

8

0.904

49

Dwayne Roloson

144

60

59

15

0.904

50

Peter Budaj

77

25

33

11

0.903

51

Mathieu Garon

119

45

39

16

0.902

52

Jeff Deslauriers

52

19

29

4

0.901

53

Nikolai Khabibulin

105

29

61

13

0.901

54

Curtis McElhinney

50

18

18

3

0.901

55

Ty Conklin

66

23

24

7

0.900

56

Jonas Gustavsson

107

39

45

15

0.900

57

Steve Mason

158

60

73

19

0.899

58

Alex Auld

54

17

13

7

0.898

Devan Dubnyk ranks 33rd on the list. Omitting his cameo at the end of 2009-10, and he moves to 22nd among NHL goalies, tied with Craig Anderson. He’s young, and even if he’s reached his plateau he’s still a very respectable 1A/1B-style goalie.

Nikolai Khabibulin ranks 53rd on that list, tied with Jeff Deslauriers and Curtis McElhinney. Only four guys with a minimum of 50 games have posted a worse save percentage. Omit his strong part-season in 2009-10 with the Oilers (18GP, 0.909 SV%) and his save percentage drops to 0.899, ahead of only Alex Auld and just behind Ty Conklin and Jonas Gustavsson.

The numbers are clear, and in this case tell truth. The decision to stick with Devan Dubnyk is a good one. The decision to stick with Nikolai Khabibulin is indefensible for a team actively trying to win.

A team actively looking to move out of the basement would look at what Khabibulin has done the last few years, decide that he’s not up to the job, and find another option. Even the Oilers’ third-stringer this season – Yann Danis, the AHL’s goalie of the year – is a better option for the NHL roster than Nik Khabibulin.

It’s a bad choice for the Oilers, but this isn’t new. They’ve been making bad choices with Khabibulin since the day they signed him.

Today at the Nation Network

Jonathan Willis is a freelance writer.
He currently works for Oilers Nation, Sportsnet, the Edmonton Journal and Bleacher Report.
He's co-written three books and worked for myriad websites, including Grantland, ESPN, The Score, and Hockey Prospectus. He was previously the founder and managing editor of Copper & Blue.

Did anyone ever stop and think that ST is just saying this in order to be classy and not throw another veteran player under the bus? just because he says this in april doesn't mean he won't be actively looking for an upgrade or that he's contemplating an extension. let's not call this a mistake before anything has actually happened

There's less than 5 goalies in the league under 28 who are definitively better than DD, so I feel like it makes sense to go into next year counting on him next year for 55 plus games and to be an at least top 20 in the league.

Habby seems like he at least can be an average backup for one more year. The signing was horrible, but we have no cap issues next year so let's just live through this last year like a loveless couple with one more year before the kid graduates. I also think he could be a valuable mentor for Yakupov and that's worth something.

Right. I knew that. Maybe Tambo just doesn't want to admit he's wrong. This was his big signing, and doing anything but letting Khabi play out his contract is admitting that was a mistake. Of course, everyone already knows it's a mistake, but it could be just pride. In the old boy's club that is being a GM in the NHL, pride plays way too much of a factor.

This is among the things that irritates me about Tambellini and Renney - the handling of Khabibulin and Dubynk.

They must really take the fan base for a bunch of idiots to say things like that and I wish someone would challenge them.

Even if you are not a stats guy, Khabibulin's post Christmas numbers are abysmal. Tambellini and Renney should be telling him that those numbers tell me your not up to the job and he ought to be thinking about post hockey careers.

Is it farfetched to suggest that Renney didn't start playing DD until he was forced to start coaching for his job?

If I were Tambellini I might have laughed at Khabby for saying that and then I would offer him a job as goalie coach. He clearly has been good for Dubnyk but it's time for him to move along.
Are there any problems with no longer having him as a player and having him as a coach salary cap wise?

Tambellini is just posturing, saving face for the terrible signing that Khabibulin was. I don't think we need to read to deep into what he says. After all, he also said we'd be a playoff team this year.

I have heard enough chitchat on here to make the ladies down at the salon sea sick.

Kevin Lowe and Steve Tambellini have run this team into the ground and they don't like to answer questions about there mistakes or even own up to them. This tells me it is up to the fans to get the owner to clean house immediately.

If the owner does not listen to reason then it is time for me to take my business to shoppers drug mart. Like any other business if you slap your customers in the face and then tell him he should like it. There's a good chance your business wont last long. Just my thoughts

I don't care what the numbers say.
0.901 is below average, but save percentage doesn't win hockey games.
22-53-11 looks bad, but is it a losing record? Can't tell. Not enough information. Is Khabi worth $3.75M a year? Maybe. Maybe not. Too early to say.

The only number that matters? 35. That's Nik's jersey number. Nik's jersey hangs in the locker room and he's a great leader for the young kids on the team. He's got a lot of poise and that's what matters. Poise. Making saves. Winning games. Clutch. Poise. He's our MVP. Dubnyk hasn't proved anything yet, but I'm happy with his progress and his poise. But Nik also has a lot of poise. Poise.

tragic.
"So, by him saying that to me, he’s still feeling the compete and the challenge."
Tambo's logic is so bizarre. This is like his line about Yzerman and Schultz. Who cares if he is 'feeling' it. The guy can't stop a beach ball anymore. What a terrible signing. How can he plug the holes in the OKC roster so effectively but hang the NHL roster out to dry with Barker and Khabby?

Maybe, just maybe, Katz has told Tambo that he's not buying out his contract? So Tambo has to put the best face on this that he can? Is that even in the realm of possibility, or is it just ineptitude, pure and simple?

Either Tambellini and Renney have blinders on or they simply don't want to shake the confidence of a player who they may be stuck with for another season. Unfortunately, I can't tell if they are serious about their assessment of Khabibulin's performance and role on the team or not.

I don't think you have to go all "Brian Burke" on your goaltenders but I don't think it is out of line to publically state that for a veteran, Khabibulin needs to be more consistent, raise his game and give the team a chance to win on a nightly basis and that a .901 save percentage is not going to cut it as a starter.

Privately, I think it would also be fair to tell Khabibulin to come back to training camp in the fall prepared to fight for a backup role, assuming that Dubnyk is ready to start. I would also tell Khabibulin that I would not be offended and would encourage him to look for European options.

In the last three years, Khabibulin has had four more starts than Dubnyk, but Dubnyk has posted seven more wins. When the combined total of wins between them is only 65, that's a statistically significant number.

JW, while a buyout doesn't help the Oilers cap situation (really, are we worried much about the 2012-13 cap?), the question should come down to how much Katz really wants to payout for this guy.

If Tambi can actually come to the realization everyone else seems to have reached, then he needs to accept that Khabi truly can't be on the Oilers NHL roster in 2012-13. And, really, can we all agree that there is not one GM in the league stupid enough to trade for Khabi based on his performance and contract?

If Khabi insists on not playing in the K, or if no one there wants him either, then the Oilers would have to consider the AHL. However, there is the possibility that Khabi might retire if they demote him, sticking the Oil with his full caphit anyhow.

Thus, if there isn't a deal to be done with a KHL team, then Katz and Tambi (if he is even really sticking around) have to decide which situation is better:

1. Pay 3.75 mill to keep that amount off the cap, with a chance they pay zero but take the full caphit.

2. Pay 1.25 mill in 12-13 and again in 13-14 and suck up the 3.75 mill caphit guaranteed in 12-13.

Perhaps Tambi's comments suggest that Khabi communicated that he is okay with playing in the K or the A. But if I were Katz and there is even the slightest suspicion that the guy would cut bait and leave the money on the table, I'd save 1.25 mill, absorb the caphit, and fire whoever's brilliant idea it was to sign the guy (or fire the yes-men that didn't stop us if I were the one who forced the signing...)

If I were Tambellini I might have laughed at Khabby for saying that and then I would offer him a job as goalie coach. He clearly has been good for Dubnyk but it's time for him to move along.
Are there any problems with no longer having him as a player and having him as a coach salary cap wise?

The cap hit should only matter financially, though. As a hockey decision, paying him NOT to play is much sounder. Maybe they should offer him more money for next year if he promises to "injure" himself in training camp.

Totally agree JW. He sits there talking about competition and then says Bulin will be back next year. What kind of a message does that send to someone like Danis who has worked is tail off and has been the most impressive goalie in the AHL this season? It doesn't matter how well you play, if your a goalie you wont get a shot in the NHL even though we keep playing a guy that should be retired.

JW, while a buyout doesn't help the Oilers cap situation (really, are we worried much about the 2012-13 cap?), the question should come down to how much Katz really wants to payout for this guy.

If Tambi can actually come to the realization everyone else seems to have reached, then he needs to accept that Khabi truly can't be on the Oilers NHL roster in 2012-13. And, really, can we all agree that there is not one GM in the league stupid enough to trade for Khabi based on his performance and contract?

If Khabi insists on not playing in the K, or if no one there wants him either, then the Oilers would have to consider the AHL. However, there is the possibility that Khabi might retire if they demote him, sticking the Oil with his full caphit anyhow.

Thus, if there isn't a deal to be done with a KHL team, then Katz and Tambi (if he is even really sticking around) have to decide which situation is better:

1. Pay 3.75 mill to keep that amount off the cap, with a chance they pay zero but take the full caphit.

2. Pay 1.25 mill in 12-13 and again in 13-14 and suck up the 3.75 mill caphit guaranteed in 12-13.

Perhaps Tambi's comments suggest that Khabi communicated that he is okay with playing in the K or the A. But if I were Katz and there is even the slightest suspicion that the guy would cut bait and leave the money on the table, I'd save 1.25 mill, absorb the caphit, and fire whoever's brilliant idea it was to sign the guy (or fire the yes-men that didn't stop us if I were the one who forced the signing...)

Buying out Khabi is not an option unless its the amnesty clause, buying him out does nothing because his cap hit sticks this year so it serves no purpose, the cap has no issue this year as we aren't a cap team, it sucks having him still but at least after this year he is gone along with the cap hit and the Oilers free up a good chunk of cap.

So again even using the amnesty clause on Khabi is not smart management. In the end the Oilers may have to bite the bullet on Horcoff and use it on him, it would be a tough move for the organization but from a financial and cap standpoint its a no brainer.

What would be ideal if the new CBA comes into the place and then the NHL limits 2nd contracts and then we can buy out Horcoff using the amnesty clause in the summer of next year because his 5.5 cap hit doesn't effect the Oilers this year.

statements like this really make me question the competence (or honesty) of Steve Tambellini. Any person who can analyze a stat sheet could see that Nik Khabibulin is more of the problem in Edmonton than the solution. I see goaltending as the biggest obstacle that needs to be addressed in order for this team to move forward, as they little trouble scoring goals. To go into next season with Nik Khabibulin slotted in to start 30+ games or even to compete for the starting job would be committing postseason suicide before the puck was dropped in early october.

Yikes if this is the case you better take Yakapo, we will need to score
5 on most nights. I like Nik but its over man, or close to it. Same with
Smyth.. He is my hero, But Ryan , accept a lesser role and cash.
Father time is nipping at your heels.. He already caught me lol..

I'd rather see them use it on Horcoff, personally, but you're right that it could be an option.

The last time the GMs met I believe it was laid out that there will be no amnesty clause for GMs in this next CBA negotiation. Now, that was Bettman saying it so it could change with the weather, but I don't think any GM worth his salt should be planning a roster strategy on a faint-hope like the amnesty clause.

Horcoff may find a new home closer to the end of his contract to a cap-floor team (if that even exists under the next CBA). Who knows, he's probably more moveable than Matt Stajan, though.

As for Khabibulin, somebody on the Nations suggested having him mentor our potential new draft pick for the first year to help him acclimatize to the NHL and Edmonton.

Since the Oilers really have very few options when it comes to Khabibulin I wouldn't expect the GM to say anything other than he's going to be back. It's possible they could be trying to trade him (long shot I know)so why lower his value further by trashing him in the media?

Now if the Oilers truly believe Khabibulin will battle for the number 1 job next year that's a different story.

This may shock some people but hockey teams don't always tell the media and the fan base the truth.

Additionally I've never really liked it when people say things like, "if it wasn't for a really good stretch of games his numbers would be a lot worse...." or the opposite(removing a bad stretch to make them look better). If you are going to remove a stretch of games from one player for comparison's sake you should do the same for everyone else, otherwise how is the comparison fair?

Of course the numbers are going to be worse if you remove their best stretch and shockingly they are also better if you remove their worst stretch.

I get so mad when I read the Tambon's post season presser. I know that we are only really two years into the rebuild and for the most part we are looking good down the road. The Pens and Hawks took 4 to 5 years for their rebuilds. BUT To listen to this guy talk about Khabbi and the Vets. Please someone shoot me. How can this team get even slightly better with out trying to make some changes. Keep Steve Smith and Ralph. Get a new head coach. Get a GM that can make the hard choices and tell the truth to the Fan base.

Season tickets now on sale untill We have a GM that has the balls to do things for the best of the team.

Oh and I hope the Edmonton fans riot if the Oiler brain trust is stupid enough to trade the #1 pick.