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Tuesday, March 20, 2012

Running Order: Winners, Losers and Everything In Between

So this morning we had a slightly delayed draw for the running order having previously been sorted into their semi-finals in January. However while the first draw is useful now that we know all the songs, today's draw allows for much deeper analysis. Before we begin our analysis is based on our running order research.

In the final the only important story was the UK getting the first slot. This is broadly not a good thing but if there was a lot of up tempo songs after it it might have a fair shot at the top 10. Italy won't be over happy with their draw given that they are serious contenders. Like last year though we really can't judge the final without knowing all the songs so we move to the semi-finals.

So in semi-final 1 we have..

Montenegro - Really no one seems to have a clue how this will do but it is in a slot that rarely gathers enough to qualify.

Iceland - Not a good draw for Jonsi and Greta. Second is not as bad a place as in the final.

Greece - recent history suggests that third is one of the worst places to be draw, maybe Greece will change this.

Latvia

Albania

Romania - a surprisingly good position mathematically, and being sandwiched between two very different songs will help.

Switzerland

Belgium

Finland - Logical wildcard choice, but not helped by having Belgium just before.

Israel

San Marino

Cyprus - 12 is a great placing, statistically the third highest average score in a semi-final.

Denmark - Nicely sandwiched between Cyprus and Russia.

Russia

Hungary

Austria

Moldova

Ireland - Great placing for Ireland, the average score for the last placed song in a semi-final since 2008 was around 105 points. Being after Moldova also should help Ireland's chances.

Semi Final 2

Serbia - Not a great draw for them, as there are many other Balkan ballads in this semi-final.

FYR Macedonia

Netherlands - Bad draw for them really.

Malta

Belarus

Portugal

Ukraine - Wildcard, nice enough slot.

Bulgaria

Slovenia

Croatia

Sweden - I don't think the running order will impact this song.

Georgia

Turkey

Estonia

Slovakia

Norway - Well positioned overall and nicely between a rock song and piano ballad. Great draw for them

Bosnia and Herzegovia

Lithuania - Not sure if this is a strong closer. Might be the second song not to qualify from last place.