Turkey After Reforms: More Islamist, More Democratic, or Both?

Turkish voters passed a large package of constitutional reforms
in a nationwide referendum by 58 percent on Sunday, significantly
altering the Middle Eastern state. The constitution, which was passed in
the wake of a military coup that had its 30th anniversary on Sunday,
has made Turkey one of the most secular democracies in a deeply
religious region of the world. However, that constitution has also
enforced an imperfect and often less than democratic government.
Sunday's reforms have strengthened Turkey's democratic institutions and
moved it closer to joining the European Union. But they have also
bolstered the ruling Justice and Development Party, led by Prime
Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan, which is devoutly Islamic and often
antagonist towards Israel, the closest U.S. ally in the region. What
does this development mean for Turkey, the Middle East, and American
interests?

'Islamists' Push Out Secular Elite The New York Times' Sebnem Arsu says
the vote hands "a major victory to the Islamist-rooted government that
continued the country’s inexorable shift in power away from the secular
Westernized elite that has governed modern Turkey for most of its
history. ... Opponents of the changes describe them as an orchestrated
power grab aimed at undermining the secular order established by the
republic’s founder, Mustafa Kemal Ataturk, in 1923, and giving religious
conservatives power over the military and judiciary, the last
independent guardians of the secular state. ... Proposals to strengthen
the control of the president and Parliament over the appointment of
judges and prosecutors are seen by critics as a barely veiled attempt to
erode the separation of powers between the executive and the judiciary.
The amendments assign greater power to Parliament and the president to
choose members of the Constitutional Court and the Supreme Board of
Judges and Prosecutors, both traditional bastions of secularism that
have clashed with Mr. Erdogan’s party in the past."

Democratizing Turkey The Economist says
this will "raise democratic standards and further erode the powers of
the country’s once omnipotent generals. ... The package includes
measures to bar gender discrimination, bolster civil liberties and
protect personal privacy. ... The core of the package is a major
overhaul of the judiciary." The Economist says of the "stealth Islamist
agenda" charges, "Such fears are exaggerated. And there is scant
evidence that AK has used its time in office to subvert secularism."

Good News for Free Turkish Financial MarketsThe Economist notes that Erdogan's party is pursuing its "platform of democratic reform and market liberalisation." Reuters's Thomas Grove says
"the outcome will be greeted by investors as a sign of confidence in a
government credited with bringing in record foreign investment and
managing strong economic growth. ... Analysts saw [the ruling party]
drawing comfort from the victory, lessening chances of imprudent
spending in the run up to the election."

Slide to Putin-Style Dictatorship, Ally of Iran The National Review's Michael Rubin frets
that the results will "cement Turkey’s slide into dictatorship or, to
be more generous, Putin-style democracy. ... Meanwhile, there remains
dissonance in U.S. policy: we treat Turkey as the ally we wish it would
be, regardless of what Turkey has in reality become. The chief example:
The United States continues to plan to sell Turkey our most
state-of-the-art F-35 Joint Strike Fighter without so much as a Pentagon
review to determine whether Islamists in the Turkish government and,
increasingly, its military could leak its secrets to Turkey’s allies in
Iran or Syria."

Strengthening Ties to EU, Middle East Reuters's Thomas Grove sees
an effort to bolster Turkey's historic role as a bridge between the two
regions. "Erdogan had portrayed the reforms as an effort to boost the
Muslim nation's democracy and help its European Union candidacy. ... The
EU's executive European Commission, which had criticized the government
for stifling public debate, welcomed the results. ... Diplomats said
Erdogan will see the vote as a mandate for Turkey's increasingly
assertive foreign policy. Under AK, Turkey, the only NATO Muslim member,
has deepened ties with Iran, Syria and Iraq, and criticized Israel's
policy toward Palestinians, raising concerns of a change of axis."

This article is from the archive of our partner The Wire.

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