ELECTIONS IN UKRAINE: THE “BIG FOUR” TO REACH THE SECOND ROUND OF PRESIDENTIAL RACE, FIVE PARTIES TO WIN THE PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS

A survey conducted in early March 2019 showed that the roll-out of Ukraine's presidential campaign quite expectedly stipulated the more active public activity of Ukrainian politicians. This has already changed the voters’ attitudes and affected the candidates’ popularity.

According to the survey results, should the presidential elections in Ukraine be held ‘this Sunday’, the biggest part of voters would give their votes to Volodymyr Zelenskiy (23.1%), followed by Petro Poroshenko and Yulia Tymoshenko (14.3% both), and Yuriy Boyko (13.9%). The other candidates share quite modest chances to reach the second round of the presidential elections: the “Big Four” are followed by Anatoliy Grytsenko (8.6%), Oleg Lyashko (5.1%), Ruslan Koshulynkiy (3.1%), Ihor Smeshko (1.9%), Oleksandr Vilkul (1.7%), and Illya Kiva (1.2%).

Taking into account the latest political news from Ukraine, where five candidates had withdrawn from the presidential race influencing the chances of other candidates, the survey allows for the following conclusions:

1. Currently there are four real candidates to enter the second round of the elections. Difference in their current public support allows no strict assumptions regarding the name of the next president or the participants of the second round. Over the remaining two weeks before the elections the “Big Four” seem to remain unchanged: Volodymyr Zelenskiy, Yulia Tymoshenko, Petro Poroshenko and Yuriy Boyko

2. The withdrawal of Eugeniy Muraev in favor of Oleksandr Vilkul gave zero effect and didn’t add to Vilkul’s rating. We suggest that after Muraev had been mentioned in the list of Ukrainian politicians and businessmen that fell under Russia’s sanctions and after accusations of cooperation with the state security service part of his disappointed voters decided to support Vladimir Zelenskiy while the others went over to back the only politician with unspoilt reputation in this electoral field, namely Yuriy Boyko.

3. The withdrawal of Andriy Sadoviy in favor of Anatoliy Grytsenko also had no immediate effect though given the broad network of their regional offices the advantage of this merger would be seen during the parliamentary elections later this year.

As regards the parliamentary elections, the new Ukrainian parliament would consist of the following political parties: “Sluga Narodu” Party of Volodymyr Zelenskiy (18.0%), the Batkivschyna Party of Yulia Tymoshenko (14.9%), “Opposition Platform – Za Zhittya” of Vadim Rabinovich, Yuriy Boyko and Viktor Medvedchuk (14.5%), the Solidarnist Party of the incumbent Ukraine’s President Petro Poroshenko (9.1%), and “Gromadyanska Pozitsiya” of Anatoliy Grytsenko, Dmytro Dobrodomov and Andriy Sadoviy (6.1%).

The other parties have insufficient public support to enter the next parliament: the Radical Party of Oleg Lyashko – 4.7%, “Svoboda” – 3.1%, UKROP – 1.4%, “Opposition Bloc – The Party of Peace and Development” (Eugeniy Muraev, Oleksandr Vilkul, Vadim Novinskiy) – 1.4%, the Socialist Party of Ukraine (Illya Kiva) – 1.3%.

The results of the survey are shown in the tables below.

Table 1. What will be the choice of yours if the presidential elections are to be held this Sunday? (%, answers of those who already decided to vote)

Volodymyr Zelenskiy

23.1

Petro Poroshenko

14.3

Yulia Tymoshenko

14.3

Yuriy Boyko

13.9

Anatoliy Grytsenko

8.6

Oleg Lyashko

5.1

Ruslan Koshulynskiy

3.1

Ihor Smeshko

1.9

Oleksandr Vilkul

1.7

Illya Kiva

1.2

Oleksandr Shevchenko

1.1

Sergiy Taruta

0.9

Valentyn Nalyvaychenko

0.5

Inna Bogoslovska

0.4

Sergiy Kaplin

0.3

Oleksandr Moroz

0.2

Yulia Lytvynenko

0.1

Other

0.1

Difficult to answer

9.2

Table 2.What will be the choice of yours if the parliamentary elections are to be held this Sunday? (%, answers of those who already decided to vote)

The international research center BURI (The Belgium-Ukraine Research Institute) conducted the survey in Ukraine on March 11-12, 2019. Total quantity of respondents equaled 2024 individuals (representational sample). The survey method – direct interviews. Error margin is 2.2%.