Wonder whether the weekend poll may account for the point drop?
Today’s WaPo shows Obama has a 4-point lead in Virginia. This goes against what we thought was Mittmomentum. Monday/Tuesday will give us a better picture.

Had these Gallup numbers been reversed for the past 13 days, this entire Free Republic forum would be under suicide watch and people would be throwing up their hands in despair saying "all is lost."

I like the position we are in. So long as our side GOTV, we will have the Obamas packing their bags for an extra-long vacation with plenty of golf and ice-cream cones to lick.

BTW, four years ago, Gallup had McCain closing to within two points of Obama at this point in time. So fear not if this poll tightens up a little more over the next few days. So long as Romney remains at 50% or higher, there is no way for Obama to pull this out.

yep. poor steelfish scouring the poll world for something to hang his hat on, right? surprised he hasn’t already made a thread about the washington post poll showing O ahead in VA.
wait for it.........

Had these Gallup numbers been reversed for the past 13 days, this entire Free Republic forum would be under suicide watch and people would be throwing up their hands in despair saying "all is lost."

Exactly. And it's why the media is a joke. If the roles were reversed they'd have called the race already (because they know it's statistically impossible to win by 4 nationally and lose the EV). Instead now all we here about is how Obama will win by taking the EV. Right!

I think Zero will dip to 45. The Benghazi story will take a while to resonate and settle with some voters due to the major networks’ hesitancy to cover it. The Internet is, however, so I see a further down-tick for 0bama. This, barring some sort of as yet ‘0ctember surprise’ coming from the media or 0bama on Romney. I’m sure they’re digging deep now.

I would like to believe that [55-45], but there are just too many people in this country who love/like the man. Sad. I'm hoping for 52-47 Romney at this point.

The moment it becomes apparent Obama will not win, the bottom will drop out.

Obama's base is composed of low-propensity voters -- youth, minorities, etc. Once it is apparent that it's a lost cause -- probably late next week -- some will switch, millions won't bother. It will go from 52-47 to 57-42 overnight. And, on election day, even worse.

You are correct and like everywhere else in the battleground states a lot will hinge on who has the better ground game. The Rats are busing to the polls anyone and everyone they could find who will vote their way.

FoxNews was the only pollster to have McCain down less than 5 at this point.

I'm still nervous, although I always am election time. What bothers me is the disconnect between state and national polls. I highly doubt both of them are right. Ohio isn't more leftist than the country, despite its local issues. The question is which polls are wrong. State or national. If it's state, we're in good shape. If it's national, we're in trouble.

I already voted and I'm going to be one of those evil vote suppressors on election day. Dead people can't vote. People can't vote in two different precincts. Nor can people go to the polls and pretend to be someone else.

28
posted on 10/28/2012 12:07:29 PM PDT
by Darren McCarty
(Holding my nose one more time to get rid of Eric Holder)

FoxNews was the only pollster to have McCain down less than 5 at this point.

Not sure about FoxNews but Gallup had McCain within two points of Obama just a week before the election. Others here have been posting a comparison spreadsheet that points that out.

I think the nationals are pretty accurate with respect to Gallup and Rasmussen - this is their bread and butter, and in the case of Gallup, they've been doing this since 1936 with good success.

So I feel comfortable that Romney is up 3-5 points nationally at this point, which should be enough to yield a solid electoral win. Even better, the challenger usually gets a surge at the end, so a 4-7 point Romney win is definitely in the cards - that would be an electoral landslide and likely bring PA, MI, WI, IA, CO and NH into the GOP column. I think FL, VA, NC and OH are in the bag for Romney. Yes, I think OH is going to come through, otherwise the Romney campaign would be spending much of their time there as that state is so crucial to the electoral calculus needed for a Romney victory.

No. If these numbers were reversed, FR would be full of people saying how full of crap the polls are. Just like now, for example. They love Gallup and Rasmussen but don’t believe the Ohio polls or Virginia or all the other polls that show Romney STILL doesn’t have the EV he needs.

Check the archive here from 2008. McCain was surging and on election day the media would be eating crow. You can mock people here who are concerned all you want but we have the numbers on our side.

It’s good to see the sleeping cell trolls blow themselves up when all is lost!

Would you rather have your boy Obama up in Gallup and Rasmussen by 3-4 (for 2 straight weeks) or hanging on to a a wacky theory that he can win the EV by losing the national vote by 4 (which has never happened in history).

LOL! Sure I will remember. No excuses either, I will admit to being wrong.

The reality is that polls are impossible until the last week. They only tell the truth if dems are winning since I have been watching them Reagan/Carter. If republicans are winning then they always show it neck and neck until their last poll then we get truth. If dems are winning it is being screamed from the rooftops.

The one thing I know for sure is that this race is either neck and neck(rep. win most likely) or republicans are winning huge....dems are not winning or the polls and the media would be screaming that fact.

You all know that Obama is going to take full advantage of the storm hitting the East Coast. I am sure he has done everything to make sure that every agency, every entity is ready and will respond perfectly to the needs. Of course we wouldn't want otherwise...people's lives and livelihood are at stake.

However, you all also know that Obama will be credited for everything good that happens, everything that works well, etc. It will be a feather in his cap according to the Lib media...so be prepared. Obama is going to use the storm for his campaign and may of his supporters will flock around saying "What a great guy...he saved the East Coast, he can do anything!"

46
posted on 10/28/2012 9:24:10 PM PDT
by CitizenM
(Obama - The architect of the decline of the U.S.)

“I would like to believe that, but there are just too many people in this country who love/like the man.”

The crowds he is drawing, and the lack of signs/bumper stickers in an area that was inundated with them four years ago, indicate that the popularity is a media myth; I work with blacks that have had enough of Obama...

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