Tuesday, January 20, 2015

We have witnessed the working out of political equation
number 1 in the 15th Loksabha polls followed by the political
equation number 2 in Haryana, Maharastra and Jharkhand followed by the
political equation number 3 working out at Jammu& Kashmir.

The induction of super cop Kiran Bedi to BJP ranks and the
announcement of her as the ‘Chief Ministerial candidate’is considered yet
another strategy of Amit Shah and co. to win over the minds of Delhi voters in
the upcoming elections. Yet, the pundits say it is going to be a tougher fight
for BJP in Delhi as they are facing a different opposition unlike they had in
Maharashtra, Haryana or Jharkhand. The unconventional man and the party in
Aravind Kejriwal and AAP respectively are said to have retained a sizable vote
share in Delhi in spite of their miserable outing of 49 days in Governance last
year. What are the chances and the equation that play out in Delhi as of now?

Delhi has a sizable urban middle class and equally poised
lower middle class and migrant population and all of them determine the poll
outcome. BJP expects the urban middle class will continue their support to the
party while AAP believes they will have support from the working class and the
lower sections of the society. One factor that could be decisive to the poll outcome
would be the approach of the voters to elect a majority government so that they
disposition of a hung assembly could be averted for the next five years. This
could favour BJP considering AAP’s poor show in the Government last time or
belief that AAP would not be able to provide a stable government. With the
centre already ruled by BJP, the voters could prefer to elect BJP government
locally for better coordination and support.

However, Government employees in Delhi seem to be unhappy
with the Modi government for his ‘work culture’. If this is true, this could
benefit either AAP or Congress as they don’t want yet another BJP government in
Delhi to screw their happy working days and holiday plans. In this context, the
strategy of projecting Kiran Bedi as a CM candidate may ruin the prospects of
BJP at times since she is known for her tough character and approach to the
governance. Sometimes, it is felt that BJP could have projected Dr Harsh
Vardhan or Meenakshi Leiki as soft faces to garner more votes. The government
employees are still worried about the anti-corruption movement even though it
does not have the unusual tag that it had in the last time. Especially when BJP is ready to accept that
there is no Modi wave in Delhi, it obfuscates such a choice.

Visit of Obama and the indications of successful summit
outcomes would be another trump card for BJP in Luteyans Delhi. The
unprecedented security cover and the normalcy could favor the BJP while even
the slightest outrage would dent their chances in the coming weeks. At the same
time, one should not rule out for the improved performance by Congress under
Ajay Maken’s leadership. There will be
several under currents in Delhi while AAP and the rest of the political
groupings in Delhi would come around for vote sharing in a few constituencies.
This election helps to revive the fortunes of a principle opposition party even
at the local level but could have a national significance. In the case of a
victory of BJP, it could be the return of AAP to the centre stage with a bang
(it is expected that AAP will finish first or second in the poll). In the case
of AAP’s victory, Modi Government will have a definite challenge in AAP under
their nose to bother about.

Whatever be the political equation number 4, I believe, democracy wins at the end of the
day in this passing phase of the elections in India. Witnessing and analyzing these political
equations is indeed a great exercise for any Public Policy Researcher.