Nate Silver ‏@fivethirtyeight That CO and VA are still toss-ups makes Obama's map more resilient if something goes wrong in OH. Model still bearish on him in FL, however.

I really don't see it that way, I tend to think the "toss ups" are going to break for Romney (as of right now) as they tend to do for the challenger.

Everyone keeps talking about Romney's momentum has stopped or reversed.. yet I don't see it. Last week he led in only one or two national polls now he leads in pretty much all of them (IBD/TIPP being the outlier)

You can talk about the electoral map all you want, but if Romney ACTUALLY ends up with a 2-3 point lead nationally, there is no way he doesn't win electorally as well. That isn't my prediction, I just think that we have yet to see ANYTHING that shows a definitive edge right now for either one.

If I had to bet right now, I'd agree with this and throw in New Hampshire as well... leaving Romney with only 267 right now.

If you consider the uncertainty in polling, you could say that this the absolute best case scenario that Romney has right now, if the true state of the race resides in the favorable part of the error bar in every state race. You could also call this wishful thinking. It's akin to saying "If I had to bet, I'd say Obama takes Florida". There just aren't polls to support this point of view.

I can't really speak to VA and CO, but I have talked to people in the know in both states. As is the case in Iowa, Romney is one the move and polls might not pick up on it right away.

I've been privy to a lot of polling data on a number of races in Iowa and the Romney movement is remarkable. If its that way in other states he's going to be the President next January.

If there is one problem with polls its that they are always late on identifying geographical movements. For example, the divide to watch in Iowa is the urban/rural split. Romney is going to crush Obama in rural Iowa, but a statewide poll might have difficulty picking it up because the sample needs to be geographically balanced, meaning more respondents are from urban areas, or its impossible to identify pockets of intense support.

In Iowa look at Santorum's caucus victory. Polls had him moving up, but they never captured his actual strength. Why? Because his support was almost entirely rural. Same was true in the 2010 Republican gubernatorial primary. One candidate had intense support in about a 5th of the counties. The Des Moines Register poll was off by 19 points. The guy still lost, but still.

I love polls. I commission polls. But I also know that they are always flawed in one way or another.

Polls do have a lot of issues, and anyone that thinks this election is anything other than close is kidding themselves. I'm still reading a few sites, but mostly cutting myself off until election day. It'll be the most interesting election night in awhile.

I'm sick of it, and ready to just cast my vote and watch things happen. In the aftermath, we can reconsider all of the polls and predictions.

If you consider the uncertainty in polling, you could say that this the absolute best case scenario that Romney has right now, if the true state of the race resides in the favorable part of the error bar in every state race. You could also call this wishful thinking. It's akin to saying "If I had to bet, I'd say Obama takes Florida". There just aren't polls to support this point of view.

um, no.

New Hampshire- Romney is ahead right now, period.
Colorado- Romney is ahead or tied depending on the poll.
Iowa- Romney is ahead or tied.
Virginia- Romney is ahead.

Yes, all of these states are within the margin of error but the polls show a decided shift towards Romney that keeps building. If you use the most current polls it's pretty clear... but who knows if this is a real trend or will adjust back in the next week. Hence my "right now" qualifier.

I can't really speak to VA and CO, but I have talked to people in the know in both states. As is the case in Iowa, Romney is one the move and polls might not pick up on it right away.

I've been privy to a lot of polling data on a number of races in Iowa and the Romney movement is remarkable. If its that way in other states he's going to be the President next January.

If there is one problem with polls its that they are always late on identifying geographical movements. For example, the divide to watch in Iowa is the urban/rural split. Romney is going to crush Obama in rural Iowa, but a statewide poll might have difficulty picking it up because the sample needs to be geographically balanced, meaning more respondents are from urban areas, or its impossible to identify pockets of intense support.

In Iowa look at Santorum's caucus victory. Polls had him moving up, but they never captured his actual strength. Why? Because his support was almost entirely rural. Same was true in the 2010 Republican gubernatorial primary. One candidate had intense support in about a 5th of the counties. The Des Moines Register poll was off by 19 points. The guy still lost, but still.

I love polls. I commission polls. But I also know that they are always flawed in one way or another.

Interesting. In 2008 it seems that western rural IA went strongly for McCain, while eastern rural IA went pretty much Obama's way. Do you have any county level polls you can share from eastern rural IA? It would be interesting to see how many counties had flipped and how strongly.

For me, there's just too much math going FOR Romney and against Obama right now... if it is accurate of course.

Romney winning by double digits among independents... Romney TIED among women. Those two are pretty damming.

All of the fundamentals have always pointed to a Romney victory. If the Republicans had a stronger candidate, I don't think it'd be a close election. We've seen this across the world - in tough economic times, people favor the other party. How many heads of government have survived the past four years?

I think it'll be incredibly close. And I wouldn't be surprised if a couple states that people thought were close swing more to Romney. And if a couple states leaning Romney end up closer than anyone thinks. It'll be a very interesting night.

New Hampshire- Romney is ahead right now, period.
Colorado- Romney is ahead or tied depending on the poll.
Iowa- Romney is ahead or tied.
Virginia- Romney is ahead.

Yes, all of these states are within the margin of error but the polls show a decided shift towards Romney that keeps building. If you use the most current polls it's pretty clear... but who knows if this is a real trend or will adjust back in the next week. Hence my "right now" qualifier.

You're biased in your presentation of raw polls. From 538, latest 5 polls in each state:

New Hampshire

Most recent Romney, 3/5 Romeny

Colorado

Most recent 3 Obama, 4/5 Obama

Iowa

Most recent Obama, 4/5 Obama

Virginia

Most recent Obama, 3/5 Romeny

When Nate Silver aggregates, all of these states are in Obama's column. His estimates include an estimate of uncertainty. Sure he could be off, but I doubt it is by so much that the true state of the race has all 4 of these states as most likely in Romeny's column.