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With NarendraModi's elevation to election campaign committee chief of the BJP being viewed by some as a harbinger of the Gujarat CM becoming tomorrow's PM, back in his home state the local media is abuzz with names of potential successors. According to a top official who has rapport with senior BJP leaders, there are four main contenders — BJP general secretary Amit Shah, RajyaSabha member ParshottamRupala, state finance minister Nitin Patel and revenue minister Anandiben Patel.

And there's one dark horse: energy minister Saurabh Patel, son-in-law of Ramnikbhai Ambani, the elder brother of the late Dhirubhai Ambani. "Of the first four, Amit Shah and Anandiben Patel are closest to Modi," adds the official who did not want to be named.

Manilal Patel, a political analyst, known to be close to top political leaders and bureaucrats in Gujarat, is betting on Anandiben. Reason? "Anandiben is to Narendra Modi what Manmohan Singh is to Sonia Gandhi," reckons Patel, adding that in politics, more than the brightest it is usually the confidante who reaches the top.

Heirs Presumptive

"Modi has groomed her well to be secondin-command," avers Rajendra Raval, a political analyst. According to him, Anandiben was allotted mostly those portfolios that allowed her to develop a connect at the grassroots level — like education, child and women development, urban development and, now, revenue. "This is one of the reasons that she is a more known face amongst the masses," adds Raval.

However, a top government official pooh-poohs the notion of Anandiben succeeding Modi. Why? Because he gave Nitin Patel the important portfolio of finance, health and family welfare, medical education and also made him spokesperson of government, thereby countering the prominence of Anandiben. "Let the people, political parties and others keep guessing," grins the official, adding that Modi will never give a clear cut indication of whom he considers No. 2 in Gujarat.

So rather than getting into a pointless guessing game, perhaps it makes more sense to ask another question: will Modi be missed if he moves to Delhi. After all this is the man who has succeeded in attracting tens of thousands of crore in investment to Gujarat — close to Rs 40 lakh crore of such proposals in five Vibrant Gujarat summits. It's another matter that an RTI document, shared by the Gujarat Parivartan Party (GPP), reveals that the investments that actually materialised were just Rs 2.70 lakh crore.

What Happens to Growth?

Then there are a clutch of Modi-driven projects — proposed as well as implemented — that his supporters give either 'pet' or 'dream' status. These include the Rs 1,000-crore Ahmedabad's Bus Rapid Transit System (BRTS), a Rs 70,270-crore financial hub called the Gujarat International Finance Tec-City (GIFT City), the Rs 50,000-crore DHOLEARA Special Investment Region (SIR), a global manufacturing and trading hub connecting the Delhi-Mumbai Industrial Corridor, and a Rs 15,000-crore Metro linking Gandhinagar and Ahmedabad.

Such mind-boggling numbers indicate the scale of Modi's vision — and perhaps would make a few of his wannabe successors a bit nervous too. Yet, beyond the numbers it is Modi's sheer proactivity that will be difficult to match. For instance, when Tata Motors hit a dead end in Singur in West Bengal for a Nano factory, the Gujarat government was quick to roll out the red carpet all the way to Sanand. That in turn paved the way for other automakers, from Maruti Suzuki to Ford, to set up manufacturing facilities there.

A spokesperson for industry body Assocham says that if Modi moves to the Centre, the industrial development of Gujarat will further flourish rather than slow down. For one, the state will get the Centre's full support. For another, the Gujarat CM who will be a trusted person of Modi will logically follow his pro-investment policies.

"I don't think his elevation to the national stage will impact Gujarat's growth story immediately," says Yamal Vyas, member of the State Finance Commission and a chartered accountant by profession. He adds that it will be difficult to slow down the growth momentum — which has now been institutionalised — that has built up over the past decade. Those not on the Modi bandwagon predictably predict doom if the Gujarat CM makes the move to Delhi. Gordhanbhai Zadafia, a former home minister who broke away from the BJP along with Keshubhai Patel to form the GPP in 2012, believes that if Modi exits Gujarat, the BJP will decline in the state as there is no other autocratic leader in the party.

Zadafia, who was with Modi in the VHP when both of them moved to the BJP in the early '90s, adds: "I know him well. He is a person who has risen above the organisation; he not only harmed the BJP but also had dismantled the RSS in the state. I hope he will choose his successor rather than allowing the BJP's top contenders to fight among themselves so that they remain weak and he continues his influence or control from Delhi."