June 24 (Bloomberg) -- India faces growing strain to fund
the widest current-account deficit in major Asian nations after
the rupee slid to an all-time low on concern the U.S. will curb
monetary stimulus as its economy improves.

The deficit narrowed to $21 billion last quarter, from
$32.6 billion or a record 6.7 percent of gross domestic product
in October to December, the median of 10 estimates shows in a
Bloomberg News survey before data due June 28. The Reserve Bank
of India estimates the sustainable level at 2.5 percent of GDP.

The rupee touched the weakest level versus the dollar on
June 20 after Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said the
U.S. central bank will probably taper bond purchases this year
if the American economy performs as it projects. The potential
for reduced stimulus exposes emerging nations from India to
Indonesia and Brazil to the risk of capital outflows.

“The prospect of the U.S. unwinding stimulus means that
funding the shortfall will get more challenging,” said Sonal
Varma, an economist at Nomura Holdings Inc. in Mumbai. “Even if
the deficit narrows, it will remain too high for comfort.”

The rupee, which touched an all-time low of 59.98 per
dollar last week, fell 0.7 percent to 59.675 at the close in
Mumbai. The S&P BSE Sensex index retreated 1.2 percent, while
the yield on the 8.15 percent government bond due June 2022 rose
to 7.70 percent from 7.62 percent on June 21.

The currency’s 9 percent tumble this quarter is the worst
in Asia, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. India is
prepared to take action to reduce volatility as needed, Raghuram
Rajan, the top adviser in the Finance Ministry, said June 20.

Biggest Risk

The imbalance in the current account, the broadest gauge of
trade, is the biggest risk to an economy that grew a decade-low
5 percent in the year ended March, according to the Reserve
Bank.

Foreign-direct investment in India fell the most in more
than a decade last fiscal year, increasing reliance on stock and
bond inflows to fund the shortfall.

Overseas investors have sold a net $2.1 billion of Indian
bonds and bought a net $4.2 billion of stocks so far this
quarter. That’s less than first-quarter fixed-income purchases
of $2.3 billion and share inflows of $10.2 billion.

The International Monetary Fund estimates the shortfall at
4.9 percent of GDP this year, compared with 3.3 percent in
Indonesia and a surplus of 2.6 percent in China. India’s
imbalance is the widest in Asian economies with GDP exceeding
$100 billion, the data shows.

Dollar Strength

“While the deficit is expected to narrow gradually this
year, the combination of rising U.S. yields and the potential
rise of the dollar will mean that India will continue to face
funding risks,” said Chetan Ahya, an economist at Morgan
Stanley in Hong Kong.

India has boosted taxes on gold imports to tackle the
current-account gap.

The government is also considering easing restrictions on
foreign-direct investment in a range of industries to woo
capital, according to Finance Minister Palaniappan Chidambaram.

Those steps are part of a nine-month policy push by Prime
Minister Manmohan Singh’s administration to bolster growth and
avert a credit-rating downgrade.

Other measures have included paring the budget deficit,
loosening foreign-investment rules in the retail and aviation
industries and easing caps and levies on purchases of local
bonds by overseas investors.

Foreign Reserves

The trade deficit in the 12 months ending March 2014
“should be lower than last year” as gold imports moderate,
Commerce Secretary S.R. Rao said in a June 18 interview.

The Reserve Bank left interest rates unchanged this month,
snapping three straight reductions, and said inflation, growth
and the balance of payments will determine monetary policy.

Currency reserves stood at $290.7 billion as of June 14,
Reserve Bank data show, about 9.4 percent lower than an all-time
high of $321 billion in 2011. They “provide a cushion” against
shocks, Fitch Ratings said June 12, when it boosted the outlook
on India’s sovereign rating to stable from negative.

Still, sustained intervention to steady the rupee amid the
high current-account imbalance is a challenge as it depletes
reserves, according to Yes Bank Ltd.

The currency won’t stabilize until the central bank is able
to “recoup” foreign-exchange reserves, Bank of America Merrill
Lynch said in a note, adding the monetary authority will try to
“defend expectations” at 60 rupees per dollar for now.

“India’s current-account deficit reflects lopsided
economic management that failed to address supply issues,” said
Arun Singh, an economist at Dun & Bradstreet Information
Services India Pvt. in Mumbai. “It will take some more time
before calm returns.”

Elsewhere in Asia today, Taiwan’s unemployment rate in May
was unchanged from April. Singapore reported a 1.6 percent rise
in consumer prices last month from a year earlier, while
Vietnam’s gauge advanced 6.69 percent in June.