Tipping Point Circuits: Yaracuy 3 and Sucre 1

The circuit most likely to bring our 102nd candidate is Zulia 3, but to give you a broader sense of the places where the opposition would need to win for the 3/5ths majority to become a reality, here are two other circuits that could be 3/5th Tipping Points.

Yaracuy 3

a.k.a., Caldera’s Final Spinning Place

Where the hell is that? Este de Yaracuy, San Felipe, Nirgua

Yaracuy is another deeply rural state, just the kind of rural area where the state’s economic weight is felt the most. This is Rafael Caldera’s home base and, amazingly, the distant echoes of his influence are still at work in this race.

The MUD candidate is Alejandro Arzola, representing Convergencia Nacional. Do not adjust your sets; that really is still a thing. Rafael Caldera’s post-COPEI personal vehicle party is still getting guys nominated and elected in Yaracuy. It’s downright feudal.

Arzola’s blog – he has a blog! – leans on local issues a lot. (A lot of MUD candidates really go down that route, don’t they?) Access to water seems to be a big theme out there – and not just in this place.

PSUV’s candidate Haydee Huérfano. Here I can’t say much. Her speeches don’t seem exactly innovative – “wooden phrases” is how people in Romania used describe this mode of communicating, where a series of ideological slogans would be strung together and be called a political discourse. Her Twitter feed has some more slogans, but there’s nothing so crass as a political idea anywhere near it. Her Facebook page is about the same. Probably the most telling thing about it is her choice of profile pictures:

Será Huérfana pero sabe muy bien quien es el que firma el cheque.

Other than that, we get some pictures of her handing out goodies to old ladies:

Her entire pitch seems to me: Vote for me cuz I’ll give you stuff and I pal around with Diosdado. ‘Mmmmmkay then.

Sucre 1

Say “Carúpano” to a Venezuelan and 9 times out of 10 the first thing that will come to mind is “beach” – the place is famous for having some of the nicest in a country full of great beaches.

A few people might say rum – Ron Carúpano is justly famous. The more cynical may say “poverty” – Sucre state has always ranked as one of the poorest in the country. And if they’re properly “darks” they’ll say “slavish devotion to the governing party, whichever party that might be.”

Again, the kinds of places where the opposition has to fight and win the 3/5ths majority are…not exactly the kinds of places you picture when you think of the Venezuelan opposition.