Texans +6.5 at Niners: Obviously Matt Schaub is becoming a problem with all those loose throws and pick-sixes. Nonetheless, I still like Houston's defense, and perhaps wins at San Diego and over Tennessee mean more than we initially thought. The Texans also had Seattle beat last week before a fluky endgame. I'm not scared of San Francisco's offense - who is Colin Kaepernick throwing to downfield? And the Niners defense hasn't been as good as we expected, in part due to some key player losses.

Jets +10 at Falcons: There's nothing wrong with the Jets defense; New York allows just 6.2 YPA and it was one break away from winning at New England. Atlanta will put together some drives, but they'll be long and methodical. Geno Smith is coming off a horrendous game but he's not nearly as shaky as he looked in Tennessee. And I'll give the Jets defense a pass for that final score; the drives in the first half came on short fields, and the Nate Washington touchdown was a stone fluke. So long as Smith doesn't throw up all over himself again, the Jets will hang around.

Raiders +4.5 vs. Chargers: Line respect has finally come to San Diego but now it's laying a sizable number to a divisional opponent that hasn't been that bad. Getting Terrelle Pryor back gives Oakland's offense a chance to move the ball (Matt Flynn's pocket awareness was a joke last week; at least Pryor can outrun some of his mistakes and misreads). These might be the two worst pass defenses in the AFC.

Packers -7 vs. Lions: Need more proof before I buy into the Lions. Detroit's defense is middle of the road in YPA allowed, and teams are running all over these guys (5.2 YPC). Off a well-timed bye and at home, I like the Pack for 30-plus - and that is enough for me to spot a big number. (ETA: And now it turns out Calvin Johnson is out. Stunner. This was posted before the Megatron news.)

Jaguars +11.5 at Rams: There's nothing good to say about the Jags, but at least the numbers are starting to get hefty. St. Louis shouldn't be spotting this many points to anyone.

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