Ladbrokes’ Head of Politics Trading, Matthew Shaddick, provides the inside take on the latest Politics news.

The morning after last week’s Rochester and Strood by-election, we made the Tories 4/6 favourites to re-take the seat next May. Punters have been even more bullish and the Conservatives are now even stronger favourites, at 1/2, with UKIP drifting out to 6/4.

According to our individual constituency prices, that means Rochester & Strood is now the eighth most likely win for UKIP at the general election. The UKIP win % is the chance of them taking the seat at the general election, as implied by our odds.

Rank

Seat

Win 2010

UKIP Win %

1

Clacton

Cons

82.25%

2

Thanet South

Cons

64.58%

3

Thurrock

Cons

57.47%

4

Boston & Skegness

Cons

56.06%

5

Great Yarmouth

Cons

40.33%

6

Castle Point

Cons

38.47%

7

Thanet North

Cons

36.55%

8

Rochester & Strood

Cons

35.87%

9

Great Grimsby

Lab

32.94%

10

Rotherham

Lab

28.51%

11

Cannock Chase

Cons

27.91%

12

Dover

Cons

27.77%

13

Louth & Horncastle

Cons

26.29%

14

Basildon S & Thurrock E

Cons

25.67%

15

Folkestone & Hythe

Cons

22.65%

16

Sittingbourne & Sheppey

Cons

22.57%

17

Eastleigh

LD

20.81%

18

Camborne & Redruth

Cons

20.23%

19

St Austell & Newquay

LD

19.83%

20

Portsmouth South

LD

19.66%

So, 15 of their top 20 prospects are Tory held seats although it’s worth pointing out that UKIP might prevent Labour from winning seats like Thurrock, Yarmouth and Cannock Chase which would all be very high on Ed Miliband’s target list.

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Matthew Shaddick has been Head of Poliical Betting at Ladbrokes since 2008. He's a writer and odds-maker with particular expertise in UK and US elections.
Also known to dabble in music, literary and other out of the way betting markets. Sometimes issues tips on horse racing and football, which are best ignored.

Ladbrokes Betting & Gaming Ltd. is licensed (licence no. 1611) and regulated by the British Gambling Commission for persons gambling in Great Britain and LC International Limited, Suites 6-8, 5th Floor, Europort, Gibraltar, is licensed (RGL Nos. 010, 012) by the Government of Gibraltar and regulated by the Gibraltar Gambling Commissioner.