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Is There Hope for Vance Joseph in His Second Season? A Look at Head Coaches with Losing First Seasons Who Were Given Additional Season(s) Since 1978

Following a severely disappointing 5-11 initial campaign as head coach, the Denver Broncos decided to retain Vance Joseph for a second season despite calls for and rumors of his firing. The San Francisco 49ers also granted Kyle Shanahan a second season following a losing record in his first season as their head coach. Joseph and Shanahan become the 115th and 116th head coaches since 1978, the year the NFL went to a sixteen game schedule, to be granted a second season following an initial losing season. For better or worse, Joseph and Shanahan will forever be linked to each other, as both interviewed for the Broncos’ head coaching position in 2017.

In Joseph’s freshman campaign, media and fans criticized him for failing to make in-game adjustments, allowing the same critical mistakes to repeatedly occur, a lack of discipline, and not being as candid about player performance or in holding players accountable like the previous season when he was the Dolphins’ defensive coordinator. Joseph became the butt of many jokes, particularly about his team’s stellar practices, only to see his team decidedly beaten far too often on game day.

Following his trying first season, Joseph expressed some of his regrets: “Early on in the season, I didn’t do a good job of pushing our coaches to make the proper changes that I thought could have helped us. I allowed guys to coach — that was my goal — but I wasn’t very good at coaching the coaches. I’ll get better at that. That was one of my shortcomings.”

Joseph could learn some from the experience of Bill Parcells. Parcells had a worse initial campaign in his first stint as a head coach than even Joseph did. Entering his second season, Parcells emphatically stated:

I just decided, ‘I don’t give a damn, I’m gonna do things my way.’ I’d always been an aggressive coach almost from the start, but I thought that I’d been straightjacketed some of the previous season. I wasn’t going to make that mistake again. In the end, you’ve got to be yourself. . . . If you’re not comfortable with yourself, don’t even bother showing up.

Beginning in 1984, Bill Parcells was going to do it his way. The dream was still alive; the Giants were still his team. He never wanted to go 3–12–1 again. He would now become the Parcells people would get to know, but not always love.

Obviously, being so bold may be easier said than done for Joseph when John Elway is your boss. So what should Broncos’ fans expect of Joseph in his second season? At the very least, Joseph should feel more comfortable in his head coaching skin. Joseph needs to rise up to being the leader of men that he was so highly touted as being. A return to his roots of candor, consistency, and steadiness with respect to player accountability and performance would be most welcome.

Joseph may be already showing signs of reverting to being more candid this season. During OTAs and minicamp, Joseph issued player challenges through the media, particularly in the form of a stern warning that he provided to Carlos Henderson before the team commenced its six-week break prior to training camp. Joseph also made numerous changes to his coaching staff this offseason in hopes of “chang[ing] the culture, so we can get back to pushing our players.”

At the 2018 NFL Scouting Combine, Elway weighed in on Joseph’s potential to improve: “I think he’ll be a better coach just from what he experienced last year having gone through that. It’s like I said, it’s like drinking through a fire hose for him. A lot of times you don’t know what you’re getting into until you actually become the head coach. I think Vance is a great young coach with a lot of energy.”

Based on history, is there any hope for Joseph to markedly improve in his second season as Denver’s head coach? There is a mixed bag of second season and subsequent season performances from head coaches given a second, and sometimes, additional seasons following an initial losing season.

The best case scenario is that Joseph becomes the next Bill Belichick, absent the cheating and general weirdness, Bill Walsh, Bill Parcells, Tom Coughlin, Jimmy Johnson, Pete Carroll in Seattle, the Chicago version of Mike Ditka, or Doug Pederson, who jumped from last to first place and won a Super Bowl between his first and second seasons. Perhaps, Joseph should just change his first name to Bill. Walsh and Johnson inherited very bad teams. Joseph did not. The quarterback quandary Joseph endured in 2017, however, was much worse than initially thought.

This article does not include coaching legends, Chuck Noll, Tom Landry, and Bud Grant, in any category. They all became head coaches well before 1978. Landry did not have a winning season as a head coach until his seventh year. His records prior to then were 0-11-1, 4-9-1, 5-8-1, 4-10, 5-8-1, and 7-7. Noll went 1-13, 5-9, and 6-8 in his first three seasons. Landry coached teams to two Super Bowl victories, five NFC titles, and eighteen playoff appearances. Noll went on to win four Super Bowl titles and five AFC Championships. Grant also had a losing record his first season as an NFL head coach before winning eleven division titles, three NFC Championships, and one NFL Championship in the same season that Minnesota lost Super Bowl IV.

Broncos’ fans would definitely be encouraged, if not enthused, if Joseph went on to have a second and subsequent seasons like Andy Reid in Philadelphia, Tom Coughlin in Jacksonville, Marv Levy in Buffalo, and yes, even Jeff Fisher in Tennessee and John Fox in Carolina. History appears to be working against Joseph, but there is potential for steady development and even greatness.

In an attempt to better prognosticate Joseph’s destiny, this article examines NFL head coaches since the 1978 season who had losing first seasons, but were granted a second season or more. This article does not include any interim head coaches’ seasons. For purposes of this article, I have placed each head coach into the following six categories:

The Great (A Minimum of Multiple Conference Championships or Super Bowl Title(s))

The Really Good (At Least One Conference Championship Appearance or Win, but No Super Bowl Titles)

Somewhat Good and Good (At Least One Playoff Appearance)

Truly Mediocre

The Bad

The Ugly

I debated about which category to place some coaches. For example, Wayne Fontes teetered on the edge of the Somewhat Good and Good to Really Good categories. Some of these categories are further broken down by time period.

Based on these lists, it is important to keep in my mind how fortunate the Broncos’ fanbase has been since the 1970s. Only one Denver coach, the main subject of this article, has had a losing first season since 1978. I am sure that the list of coaches and seasons will bring to mind many great Broncos’ memories and a few that will undoubtedly trigger some sadder moments.

I hope that this article and its findings will be interesting, informative, instructive, and not TL;DR. I look forward to your thoughts and comments, and I apologize for any formatting issues with the WordPress tables.

The Great (A Minimum of Multiple Conference Championships or Super Bowl Title(s))

Head Coach and Team

1st, 8th, or 15th Season

2nd, 9th, or 16th Season

3rd or 10th Season, or 17th Season

4th or 11th Season, or 18th Season

5th or 12th Season

6th or 13th Season

7th or 14th Season

Bill Belichick (NE)

2000 5-11 (5th)

2001 11-5 (1st) Won SB XXXVI

2002 9-7 (2nd)

2003 14-2 (1st) Won SB XXXVIII

2004 14-2 (1st) Won SB XXXIX

2005 10-6 (1st) Lost AFCDG to DEN

2006 12-4 (1st) Lost AFCCG

Bill Belichick (NE Cont.)

2007 16-0 (1st) Lost SB XLII

2008 11-5 (2nd)

2009 10-6 (1st) Lost AFCWCG

2010 14-2 (1st) Lost AFCDG

2011 13-3 (1st) Lost SB XLVI

2012 12-4 (1st) Lost AFCCG

2013 12-4 (1st) Lost AFCCG to DEN

Bill Belichick (NE Cont.)

2014 12-4 (1st) Won SB XLIX

2015 12-4 (1st) Lost AFCCG to DEN

2016 14-2 (1st) Won SB LI

2017 13-3 (1st) Lost SB LII

Bill Parcells (NYG)

1983 3-12-1 (5th)

1984 9-7 (2nd) Lost NFCDG

1985 10-6 (2nd) Lost NFCDG

1986 14-2 (1st) Won SB XXI

1987 6-9 (5th NFCE-Strike Season)

1988 10-6 (2nd)

1989 12-4 (1st) Lost NFCDG

Bill Parcells (NYG Cont.)

1990 13-3 (1st) Won SB XXV (Temporary Retirement)

Bill Walsh (SF)

1979 2-14 (4th)

1980 6-10 (3rd)

1981 13-3 (1st) Won SB XVI

1982 3-6 (11th in NFC-Strike Season)

1983 10-6 (1st) Lost NFCCG

1984 15-1 (1st) Won SB XIX

1985 10-6 (2nd) Lost NFCWCG

Bill Walsh (SF Cont.)

1986 10-5-1 (1st) Lost NFCDG

1987 13-2 (1st/Strike Season) Lost NFCDG

1988 10-6 (1st) Won SB XXIII (Retired)

Tom Coughlin (NYG)

2004 6-10 (2nd)

2005 11-5 (1st) Lost NFCWCG

2006 8-8 (3rd) Lost NFCWCG

2007 10-6 (2nd) Won SB XLII

2008 12-4 (1st) Lost NFCDG

2009 8-8 (3rd)

2010 10-6 (2nd)

Tom Coughlin (NYG Cont.)

2011 9-7 (1st) Won SB XLVI

2012 9-7 (2nd)

2013 7-9 (3rd)

2014 6-10 (3rd)

2015 6-10 (3rd) (Forced Resignation)

Jimmy Johnson (DAL)

1989 1-15 (5th)

1990 7-9 (4th)

1991 11-5 (2nd) Lost NFCDG

1992 13-3 (1st) Won SB XXVII

1993 12-4 (1st) Won SB XXVIII (Mutual Parting)

Mike Ditka (CHI)

1982 3-6 (12th in NFC/Strike Season)

1983 8-8 (3rd)

1984 10-6 (1st) Lost NFCDG

1985 15-1 (1st) Won SB XX

1986 14-2 (1st) Lost NFDG

1987 11-4 (1st/Strike Season) Lost NFCDG

1988 12-4 (1st) Lost NFCDG

Mike Ditka (CHI Cont.)

1989 6-10 (4th)

1990 11-5 (1st) Lost NFCDG

1991 11-5 (2nd) Lost NFCWCG

1992 5-11 (4th) (Fired)

Pete Carroll (SEA)

2010 7-9 (1st) Lost NFCDG

Only head coach with a losing first season to qualify for the playoffs in that same season.

2011 7-9 (3rd)

2012 11-5 (2nd) Lost NFCDG

2013 13-3 (1st) Won SB XLVII

2014 12-4 (1st) Lost SB XLIX

2015 10-6 (2nd) Lost NFCDG

2016 10-5-1 (1st) Lost NFCDG

Pete Carroll (SEA Cont.)

2017 9-7 (2nd)

Marv Levy (BUF)

1987 7-8 (4th/Strike Season)

1988 12-4 (1st) Lost AFCCG

1989 9-7 (1st) Lost AFCDG

1990 13-3 (1st) Lost SB XXV

1991 13-3 (1st) Lost SB XXVI

1992 11-5 (2nd) Lost SB XXVII

1993 12-4 (1st) Lost SB XXVIII

Marv Levy (BUF Cont.)

1994 7-9 (4th)

1995 10-6 (1st) Lost AFCDG

1996 10-6 (2nd) Lost AFCWCG

1997 6-10 (4th) (Retired)

Dick Vermeil (STLR)

1997 5-11 (5th)

1998 4-12 (5th)

1999 13-3 (1st) Won SB XXXIV

Doug Pederson (PHI)

2016 7-9 (4th)

2017 13-3 (1st) Won SB LII (Obviously will be given a third season)

The Really Good (At Least One Conference Championship Appearance or Win, but No Super Bowl Titles)