It's been fashionable ever since Iraq War 2 to suggest any foreign policy tension with an oil producer is a pretext for a resource-grab. But that's all it is, a knee-jerk accusation. (Chavez pretty much built his political support on this paranoia, as did others.) Trump is shameless enough to rationalize a resource war if he felt it necessary but aside from that one strike he ordered in Syria in retaliation for gassing civilians he has been relatively isolationist in his foreign policy. He's sometimes a saber rattler, but just isn't a neocon. That won't stop people here from continuing to predict an invasion, of course. No amount of common sense stops the silliness here.

EXTREME PREDICTION LEADERBOARD "this is peak now. Wanna bet? The Real Pain starts . . . now." (11/21/18)" --pstarr"$0/barrel soon as per etp." (12/30/18)" --pstarrATTN: SHORT LOST A BET AND WON'T EVEN ADMIT HE MADE ONE. HE SHOULD NOT BE WELCOME HERE!!!

How long a time will the Venezuelan oil buy us Short?Because we sure seem intent on getting it all for ourselves

How long we have may not necessarily be a part of oil's present decline. The damage may have already been done as the world's GDP to Debt ratio appears to be rolling over. Managing the debt is going to be growing more difficult at an exponential rate. If the CB go ballistic we will know why.

The U.S needs high oil prices...and so does Russia. Sometimes it almost seems as if the U.S and Russia are partners. They are like scissors, creating conflicts and cutting down oil producing nations...Iran, Venezuela, Libya..

Well...it was my conspiracy theory for today...a bit crazy. At least they should by secretly conspiring to raise oil prices.

The U.S needs high oil prices...and so does Russia. Sometimes it almost seems as if the U.S and Russia are partners. They are like scissors, creating conflicts and cutting down oil producing nations...Iran, Venezuela, Libya..

They are both stuck with the same unfortunate reality, and that is there is only so much the economy can afford to pay for oil. There is only a finite number of BTU that can be supplied to the economy from a gallon of finished product, and that is going down. Since the industry is no longer replacing its reserves it is having a going out of business sale. The product is likely to be sold at any price they can get for it above their lifting cost. Growth is no longer a part of the equation, and it is no longer even being talked about. They are playing the last hand before the deck burst into flames.

The IEA, in its monthly report for April, pointed out that demand was a “very important” piece of the equation for oil market rebalancing and that faced a wall of uncertainty given the less-than-stellar outlook for the global economy.

At least you realize this. Maybe resist the temptation next time and spare us the tinfoil?

EXTREME PREDICTION LEADERBOARD "this is peak now. Wanna bet? The Real Pain starts . . . now." (11/21/18)" --pstarr"$0/barrel soon as per etp." (12/30/18)" --pstarrATTN: SHORT LOST A BET AND WON'T EVEN ADMIT HE MADE ONE. HE SHOULD NOT BE WELCOME HERE!!!

"BP is the last of the international oil majors, including Royal Dutch Shell, Exxon Mobil, ConocoPhillips and ENI, to quit exploring for shale gas in China because of poor drilling results. Its departure leaves the sector firmly in the hands of domestic companies."

Reuters

China is facing problems with falling EROEI. Going from conventional natgas to unconventional in China, would be like being sucked into s black hole.

Over the past four weeks, motor gasoline product supplied averaged9.4 million barrels per day, up by 1.2% from the same period last year.Distillate fuel product supplied averaged 4.2 million barrels per day overthe past four weeks, up by 3.1% from the same period last year. Jetfuel product supplied was up 0.7% compared with the same four-weekperiod last year.

The demand for oil increased by 1.1 mmbpd in February YoY. The increase came from three nations: China, U.S and India. The demand fell in the rest of the world.

you do realize that producers anywhere in the world can ship and sell their oil to any of the countries with increasing demand don't you? It doesn't matter if demand has dropped in some countries if overall demand driven by some country or countries somewhere has increased.

China is facing problems with falling EROEI. Going from conventional natgas to unconventional in China, would be like being sucked into s black hole.

China's energy efficiency is already very low. Relying on lower EROEI shale gas is only going to make their situation worse. But China is not alone. The entire world is dying from falling ERoEI. It is the effect of energy starvation. Some countries have already reverted back to the stone age, and most are displaying signs of severe stagnation. 40% of Russel 2000 companies are no longer profitable. Their long slow decline does not bode well for their future. With the entire world's equity markets now pumped up on pseudo money, when the credit markets begin to fail the structure of civilization will go with it. A sure sign of that will be when interest rates world wide have gone negative.

This article is claiming that Ghawar will have a 65% recovery rate. I'm claiming that Maxine Waters is going to win the World Beauty contest. One must admit that either is possible? Likely is a different matter!

The key here is to look at Figure 7; average permeability. It ranges from a high of 639 to 52. 65% will show up on the first cold day in hell. That is also possible.

This article is claiming that Ghawar will have a 65% recovery rate. I'm claiming that Maxine Waters is going to win the World Beauty contest. One must admit that either is possible? Likely is a different matter!

The key here is to look at Figure 7; average permeability. It ranges from a high of 639 to 52. 65% will show up on the first cold day in hell. That is also possible.

Why don't you entertain us with your vast knowledge of reservoir engineering and come up with your own calculated recovery factor? that should be good for a chuckle.

Aramco has pointed out that their goal is 70% ultimate recovery from all of the fields on average. A number of years ago there was a paper published in the SPE that looked at wettability in the Shedgum area and via lab work arrived at an ultimate recovery of 72%.

According to Aramco reports by 2010 Ghawar had produced 65 billion bbls of oil. If you use 5 MMb/d since then you end up with ~80 Gbbl having been produced to date. The D&M reserve analysis ended up with 48 Gbbl remaining of Proven reserve. Various work done in the past arrives at OOIP for Ghawar at anywhere from 180 to 190 Gbbl which results in a recovery factor between 68% and 72% which agrees well with what Aramco has said is their achievable goal along with support from lab tests conducted to look into wettability in the northern part of Ghawar.

If EROEI does not matter and only mass printed fiat does, then how come nobody is tapping into the huge conventional oil reserves left in place after regular production withers away. Why not just dig up and process thousands of cubic kilometers of sandstone, dolomite, etc.? Just print up some fiat and you are all set.

If EROEI does not matter and only mass printed fiat does, then how come nobody is tapping into the huge conventional oil reserves left in place after regular production withers away. Why not just dig up and process thousands of cubic kilometers of sandstone, dolomite, etc.? Just print up some fiat and you are all set.

CAT would sure approve that plan. The US has left 65% of its oil in the ground. Maybe Roc owns a ground hog farm? He's sure talking his book.