Golden Numbers of Election Night

Alas, James in Turkey will shirking its good name for this Sunday’s election. The bright lights of other events around the same time have been enough a distraction to prevent travel to Turkey, or even to cover the vote from afar. Selections from this blog’s coverage for the last time the country did this is still available, though.

By way of recompense for the radio silence around this election, however, allow me to offer the Golden Numbers of Election Night. This is your indispensable guide to the numbers to watch out for as the votes are counted, categorised by political party:

AK Party

Justice and Development Party, religious conservative, governing276 – absolute majority: the number of seats AK need to govern alone for a third term.330 – the number of seats needed to change the Turkish constitution, pending approval in a referendum367 – supermajority: the number of seats needed to change the Turkish constitution without a referendum

CHP

Republican People’s Party, centre-left, main opposition21% – CHP’s share of the national vote in 2007’s general election23% – CHP’s share of the national vote in 2009’s local electionsAnything above 25% would represent a significant improvement on CHP’s previous performance, which had exploited a saturated secularist constituency.Anything above 30% would be an excellent result, a victory for leader Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, and possibly enough to prevent AK receiving an absolute majority.

MHP

Nationalist Action Party, right wing, opposition10% – the national share of the vote MHP must cross to win any seats. Stay above, and they could win as many as 70 seats. Fall below, and even provinces the MHP is projected to win – like Mersin and Osmaniye – are likely to fall to AK, possibly helping the governing party towards a supermajority.

BDP

Peace and Democracy Party, pro-Kurdish, candidates running as independents20 – the minimum number of seats required to form a group in parliament, receive additional funding, and be represented in parliamentary select committees21 – the number of seats won by pro-Kurdish candidates at the last election30 – the highest number of seats pro-Kurdish candidates could realistically win in this election, making them kingmakers in a parliament where AK falls short of one of its majorities