MLB Handicapper Free Play: Oakland A's vs. Seattle Mariners

We saw very clearly late last night/early this morning that the situational spot was simply too much for either of these anemic lineups to overcome in their regular season opener. Spring training isn’t over yet – both the Mariners and A’s will return to the U.S. following tonight’s late night/early morning affair and play five more exhibition games. Other than Tokyo fan favorite Ichiro, there wasn’t a single lineup player who hit the ball well in yesterday’s opener. The A’s did what they’ve been doing for years now: 1-14 with runners in scoring position. The Mariners finished dead last in the majors in runs scored in 2011 by a wide margin, without much more potency expected in 2012 – their #4 through #7 hitters last night finished a combined 0-17. At this early stage of the season, both bullpens are in excellent shape, even Read more

Boston Red Sox Betting News and Notes

A 7-20 freefall that caused them to miss the playoffs after holding a nine-game wild-card lead. Fallout included the departures of general manager Theo Epstein and manager Terry Francona, replaced by Ben Cherington and Bobby Valentine, respectively.

Can Daniel Bard succeed as a starting pitcher? Who is the shortstop? Do the Red Sox have a viable No. 4 or 5 starter? Alfredo Aceves, Felix Doubront or Aaron Cook?

One thing that remains certain: The offense will be formidable. The Red Sox led the majors in runs scored last season, and the core of the lineup is returning. Jacoby Ellsbury, Dustin Pedroia, Adrian Gonzalez and David Ortiz are back, and Kevin Youkilis is healthy after dealing with several injuries, including a sports hernia, last season. Carl Crawford is seeking to rebound from a disappointing Red Sox debut, although he's likely to open the season on the disabled list after offseason wrist surgery.

The top of the rotation, with Jon Lester and Josh Beckett, is reliable, and Clay Buchholz is returning after an injury-shortened 2011. And new closer Andrew Bailey, an All-Star with the Oakland Athletics, replaces Jonathan Papelbon at the back of Read more

Toronto Blue Jays Betting News and Notes

Nothing but positive, upbeat and enthusiastic quotes coming from Blue Jays players and manager John Farrell on the upcoming season. Toronto is 19-4 in exhibition play. I'm not going to go crazy over that since good preseason records mean nothing once April rolls around but the vibes from the Jays are very positive. They feel they have the pieces in place to compete right with Boston, New York and Tampa Bay in the AL East this season and have a vastly improved bullpen which will feature a solid back end of Casey Janssen, Darren Oliver, Francisco Cordero and new closer Sergio Santos. Toronto's bullpen was a disaster last season but gone now are: Jon Rauch, Frank Francisco, Marc Rzepczynski among other Blue Jays relievers which were quite simply not reliable enough to get the job done in the late innings. It's worth noting the Jays managed to get another key reliever in Jason Frasor back in their pen for this season. They traded him to the White Sox last year but he's back with the Jays.

The starting rotation looks like it will be ace Ricky Romero, followed by Brandon Morrow, Brett Cecil, Henderson Alvarez Read more

Article from the New York Post on some concerns with Yankees starter Michael Pineda. Pineda threw 171 IP last season and earned a spot on this year's Verducci Effect list. The Mariners spaced out his starts but his velocity was way down during the second half. In seven of his first 13 starts, Pineda's fastball averaged 95 or better. In his last 15 starts, he averaged that speed only once.

“It’s not as good as last year,’’ the scout said of Pineda’s fastball, which topped out at 93 mph yesterday but sat at 90 with a few 88s mixed in. “The fastball has no life.’’

“Some guys fall in love with the cutter and they lose velocity,’’ said the scout, who explained that some of Pineda’s pitches cut naturally.

“Right now I see a guy who can pitch in the bottom of the rotation with the stuff he had,’’ the scout

Cleveland Indians Betting News and Notes

Cleveland’s -56 run differential last year was the worst of any team that won at least 80 games. 84-70 to the OVER; pretty amazing for a team that couldn’t hit worth a lick.

The Indians' preparations for the season suffered two key blows before spring training even began. They began camp knowing that Fausto Carmona, the club's opening day starter last year, and Grady Sizemore, the team's leadoff hitter and center fielder, would not be on the opening day roster.

Carmona, club officials learned, isn't even Carmona. He's Roberto Hernandez, and he's 31 years old, not 28 as the club believed. All that came to light when Hernandez was arrested in the Dominican Republic for identity theft. Carmona hopes to pitch at some point this season, but he will open the season on the restricted list.

Sizemore will open the season on the disabled list. He underwent back surgery right as spring training was beginning. He is not expected to be back in the lineup until late May or early June.

With two weeks left in training camp it appears that they filled Hernandez's spot in the rotation. Right-hander Jeanmar Gomez out-pitched three other Read more

Good potential in minors: not what they look like in April, but what they look like in July and September.

Rookie pitching prospects: Andy Oliver had the highest ceiling but has control issues. Drew Smyly was the organization's Minor League Pitcher of the Year but made only a sprinkling of starts at Double-A. No. 1 pick from 2009 Jacob Turner, a right-hander, was shelved by right shoulder soreness midway through the spring and was expected to begin the season with Triple-A Toledo.

The lone lineup issue was Austin Jackson's presence at the top of the order. Jackson reduces his speed impact by not getting on base enough, which is because he strikes out way too much (170 and 181 times his first two seasons). But Leyland doesn't feel he has viable alternatives.

Octavio Dotel was signed as a free agent between seasons to add veteran depth at the back of the bullpen, which the organization Read more

The Chicago Bulls are off a rare poor defensive performance against Denver on Monday in which they allowed the Nuggets to shoot 50% from the field. Denver scored 25+ points all four quarters en route to a 108-91 victory. Prior to the loss, the Bulls were on a 25-0 SU run when they shot better than 45% from the floor. Another impressive stat shows that Chicago has gone 83 games without losing two straight, which according to STATS, LLC. is the fourth longest streak in NBA history.

“Each game counts,” Lucas said. “Playoffs are right around the corner and we want homecourt advantage throughout the whole playoffs.”

“(The defense) is something we need to clean up. I know (Thibodeau) is going to address us with it and you’ll see a difference on Wednesday.”

Betting handle on March Madness surpasses Super Bowl

Reports say that the betting handle generated from March Madness has surpassed that of the Super Bowl in Las Vegas. Not entirely shocking considering how many postseason college basketball games there are for bettors to wager on.

“You take all those games and combine them all, it surpasses what we take in on the Super Bowl,” Kornegay says. “It’s 67 games, as opposed to one game.”

But the state's legalized sports books typically see a $100 million jump in total basketball betting every March, Streshley says.

In 2011, gamblers wagered $256.6 million on college/pro basketball in March vs. $114.3 million in February. With the Big Dance wrapped over by early April, the basketball handle for that month then dropped back to $78.2 million.

NBA Gambling Trends: Los Angeles Lakers on 11-1 run to the OVER

Over the last two and a half seasons, the Los Angeles Lakers have been one of the stronger UNDER teams in the league. They went a 200-game stretch dating back to the 2009-10 season where 58% of their games went UNDER the total. But a few weeks back, things starting to change...dramatically. LA has now gone OVER the total in 11 of its last 12 (4-8 ATS). Note that both overtime games went OVER in regulation. Lack of defense has played a part as the team allowed 100+ points six times during that stretch. Prior to that, the Lakers allowed 100+ just eight times in 38 games.

NBA Handicapping: Charlotte Bobcats pick up pace amid horrific season

Many public bettors struggle to bet on bad teams, and the Charlotte Bobcats (7-40 SU, 17-30-1 ATS) certainly fit that profile. Note that both records are currently NBA-worsts. The Bobcats are losing games by over 13 ppg – another league-worst – and nearly double that of the next closest team (Washington, 7 ppg).

But there is an opportunity to make money on this team, as assistant coach Stephen Silas and recently stated, “We have to play faster; we can’t be a slow-down team.” Charlotte’s defense is deficient, allowing 100 ppg and over 47% shooting; both near the very bottom of the NBA. They have allowed their last seven opponents to score over 100 points, and combined with their increased pace of play and preferred up-tempo style, six of the last seven Charlotte games have gone OVER the total.

The Bobcats next two home games are against Minnesota and Denver; two teams with efficient and high-scoring offenses and poor scoring defenses. Then the challenge to play higher scoring games becomes a little tougher with four straight road games against poor offensive teams including Detroit and Toronto.

Still, the Bobcats look like they will continue to push the pace with nothing to lose down the stretch, and combined with little defensive effort, OVER bets should continue to cash at a solid rate.

NFL may allow casinos ads at stadiums

Seeing the potential for more dollar signs, the NFL may allow teams to advertise casinos at stadiums. The one catch is the casino is not allowed to have a sportsbook.

“It’s an interesting situation, because that’s a great segment in which to develop relationships anyway,” Jets owner Woody Johnson told the Post. “But it’s also a delicate situation because you’d want to be sensitive to the league’s existing policy on gambling.”

“I tell you what, I’ve dealt with some kind of elbow inflammation my entire career,” the Twins’ pitcher said recently. “I know what’s OK and what’s not OK. It’s just a little more than what I was willing to push through. It’s tough.”

Minnesota finished in the top half of the American League in ERA in nine of the 10 seasons heading into 2011. Last year, they finished 13th with Read more

News LinksDespite the American League Central being watered down the last few years, the White Sox went 98-118 vs. the division from 2009-11.

"That has been one of our big weaknesses, getting our butts kicked in our division," left-handed reliever Matt Thornton said. "Without a doubt, you have to be better than.500 in your division or you're shooting yourself in the foot."

NIT Betting Notes: Madison Square Garden has a way of holding offenses in check

Some notes regarding tonight’s two semifinal matchups in the NIT. Bettors who have been following these secondary tournaments have either been making money playing OVERS or living under a rock. But based on some of the historical results, I refrained from pulling the trigger on tonight’s two games. In fact, I made half-unit plays on the UNDER after some research. You’ll notice that like clockwork, both games were bet OVER the total just like every other NIT, CBI and CIT game. Here are some of the numbers I found…

The last 14 semifinal matchups at Madison Square Garden produced the following game scores: 123, 119, 131, 135 (OT), 138, 126, 150, 144, 125, 135, 141, 109, 142, and 128. That comes out to about 132 points per game. Only two of those contests went over 143 (Minnesota-Washington total) and one over 149 (UMass-Stanford total).

In terms of O/U numbers, I went back the last 10 semifinal matchups and got 3-7 O/U. But perhaps even more impressive than 70% UNDERS is the manner in which they cashed. The seven UNDERS were by margins of 22, 10.5, 15, 12, 18, 20.5 and 27! That is crazy and certainly not random. And the situations were Read more

News LinksOn May 23 of last year, the Indians had a 7-game lead in the AL Central but finished the season 15 games back of Detroit. During that span, the Tribe went 51-67. The team is hoping by experiencing last year's highs and lows that they'll be better prepared to compete on a full-time basis.

"This team is built to win now," All-Star closer Chris Perez said. "That's the way we look at it. We know from a year ago how tough it is to win for an entire season. We're better prepared to deal with that.

News LinksThe Tigers feel that starter Rick Porcello is ready to be a more consistent pitcher. Only 23, Porcello had his ups and downs last season but threw well during spring training.

"I think the most important thing is he's learned to handle the good, the bad, and the ugly," Jim Leyland said following Porcello's stint, which saw his ERA drop to 1.59. "He's grown up. He had some success, and then had to adjust to a rough time (2010) when he wasn't as good as he wanted to be.

NBA Betting Alert: Philadelphia's Iguodala doubtful vs. Cleveland

Philadelphia 76ers forward Andre Iguodala (knee) is listed as "doubtful" for tonight's game against Cleveland according to Sports Options. Iguodala missed Sunday's game against San Antonio; the Spurs won 93-76.

“It’s not like this just occurred,” Iguodala said. “I’ve been playing through it probably the last month. I really didn’t feel comfortable with it (Sunday).

“I’ve had the same feeling before, like two weeks ago. I played through it. It didn’t work out for me (that night). I tried telling myself that if it happens again, to let someone know. I’m trying to stay on top of it because we’re coming down the stretch and we don’t want this overlapping in late April and early May.”

Payment processor pleads guilty in online poker case

Chad Elie, one of the payment processors involved in last year's DOJ online poker crackdown, reached a plea agreement with prosecutors Monday and will face six months in prison.

"I knew that my conduct was wrong," Mr. Elie said at the hearing, as he pleaded guilty to conspiracy to commit bank fraud and to operating an illegal gambling business. He also agreed to forfeit $500,000 as part of his plea.

UK sportsbook Sportingbet looking to get back in the US after settling debt with DOJ

British sportsbook Sportingbet just settled its debt ($33 million) with the United States Department of Justice and is now looking to renter the US market. The sportsbook is currently in discussions with Foxwoods Casino in Connecticut about providing an online gaming platform.

Andrew McIver, chief executive, said: “This final payment formally closes any risk which the company may have faced from its former activities in the US.

“Given that the US market continues to show signs of regulating both by product, and by state in the near future, various opportunities exist to re-enter the US market and we are reviewing these.”

NCAA Tournmanet Betting: Final Four Against the Spread Notes

The Final Four in New Orleans is set as no. 1 seed Kentucky, no. 2 Ohio State, no. 2 Kansas and no. 4 Louisville light up the Superdome. The Elite Eight had some super finishes and tight contests with three of the four games landing within five points of the poinspread. The Kansas–North Carolina game had a one-point margin with 3+ minutes to go before the Jayhawks finished the game on a 12-0 run to pull away for the win.

The Sweet Sixteen also had many close contests with all four games last Friday landing within five points of the pointspread. Of the 12 games last week, eight landed within five points of the line. During the course of the college basketball season, 40% of all games landed within five points of the betting line, so you can see how tight the numbers are as the tournament progresses.

With that said, here are some Final Four Against-the-Spread (ATS) notes. Since 1998, the better seeded team is 21-8 SU and 22-7 ATS. Teams seeded no. 4 or worse are 1-10 SU and 2-9 ATS if they are playing a better seeded team. Top-seeded no. 1 teams taking on a worse seed are 15-4 SU and 14-5 ATS the past 14 years including 11-3 ATS if favored by -8 or Read more

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