Your Right to Know

Mitt Romney’s loss to a Democratic president wounded by a weak economy is certain to spur an
internecine struggle over the future of the Republican Party, but the strength of the party’s
conservatives in Congress and the rightward tilt of the next generation of party leaders could
limit any course correction.

With their party on the verge of losing the popular presidential vote for the fifth time in six
elections, Republicans across the political spectrum anticipated a prolonged and probably divisive
period of self-examination.

The coming debate will center on whether the party should keep pursuing the anti-government
focus that grew out of resistance to the health-care law and won it the House in 2010, or whether
it should focus on a strategy that recognizes the demographic tide running strongly against it.

“There will be some kind of war,” predicted Mike Murphy, a longtime Republican Party consultant,
suggesting it would pit “ mathematicians” like him, who argue that the party cannot keep
surrendering the votes of Hispanics, blacks, younger voters and college-educated women, against the
party purists — or “priests,” as he puts it — who believe that basic conservative principles can
ultimately triumph without much deviation.

“We are in a situation where the Democrats are getting a massive amount of votes for free,”
Murphy said.

But the debate will not be about just demographics. Ralph Reed, a veteran of the conservative
movement, said that Romney’s loss would stir resentment among those who believe the party made a
mistake in nominating a more centrist Republican who had to work to appeal to the party’s base.

“There’s definitely a feeling that it would be better to nominate a conservative of
long-standing conviction,” he said.

As a party, Republicans continue to depend heavily on older working-class white voters in rural
and suburban America — a shrinking percentage of the overall electorate — while Democrats rack up
huge majorities among urban voters including blacks, Hispanics and other minorities. That’s not to
mention younger Americans who are inclined to get their political news from Comedy Central and will
not necessarily become more conservative as they age.

The disparity means that the Democratic Party can get well under 50 percent of the white vote
and still win the presidency, a split that is only going to widen in the future.

Even as they absorbed Romney’s defeat, the party’s top elected officials, strategists and
activists said they believed that Republicans had offered a persuasive message of economic
opportunism and fiscal restraint. While the messenger may have been flawed, they argued,
Republicans should not stray from that approach in a moment of panic.

Besides Sen. Marc Rubio of Florida, Rep. Paul Ryan, the unsuccessful vice presidential
candidate, will now be seen as a chief party voice, as will Gov. Scott Walker of Wisconsin. House
Republicans particularly can be expected to gravitate to Ryan. Among others considered on the rise
are Sen. Rand Paul of Kentucky, Gov. Bob McDonnell of Virginia and Gov. Bobby Jindal of Louisiana,
and all can to some extent attribute their success to tea party-style politics with an emphasis on
cutting spending and shrinking government.