The future of the
international information space has been a regular topic of discussion at all
influential platforms of late — from the UN, G8 and G20, to OSCE, BRICS and
the annual Munich Security Conference. The reasons for increased attention to
cyberspace problems may vary, but they all have one common denominator: The
countries that are most advanced in the field have turned out to be the most
vulnerable.

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While Russia is
particularly concerned about the use of new technologies to wage information
wars and destabilize regimes, the U.S. is worried about their potential use for
criminal, terrorist and military purposes.

In 2010, the U.S.
became the first country to officially declare cyberspace as a potential
battlefield alongside land, sea and air. In 2011, it was the first to develop a
national cyberspace strategy that would allow Washington to react to computer
sabotage using all available means — including nuclear weapons.

Earlier, the U.S.
set up its Cyber Command — a paramilitary structure to repel virtual attacks.
In late 2011, Congress approved and appropriated money for the development of
offensive cyber technologies. Last autumn it was revealed that the U.S. Air
Force Command was planning to buy a range of toxic programs to disrupt or
destroy the computer networks and control centers of potential enemies.

Moscow takes a
guarded view of Washington’s activities, believing them to be one of the main
causes of the cyber race that has swept the world. The armed forces of a number
of countries (including China, India, Israel, Great Britain, Iran and Estonia)
recently set up cyber units.

Russia’s defensive
and offensive cyber potential is still far inferior to that of the U.S., but
Moscow has recently been developing it more actively.

In late December
2011, the Ministry of Defense published a document titled “Conceptual Views on
the Activities of the Russian Armed Forces in the Information Space,” naming
the information space as a potential arena of hostilities.

In March 2012, the
Russian authorities formally announced plans to create a cyber command similar
to the one that exists in the United States. In January of that year, Vladimir
Putin ordered the Federal Security Service (FSB) to develop a national system
to forecast and prevent cyberattacks, giving the agency new powers to fight
cybercrime.

The Russian
Security Council and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs pay great attention to
international information security. In March 2012, the Ministry of Foreign
Affairs created the position of roving ambassador, to coordinate the political
use of information and communication technologies. One of the agency’s key
tasks will be to promote initiatives for adopting the U.N. international code
of conduct on the Internet.

Russia is also advocating the principle of
non-interference in the information space.

The U.S. and its
NATO allies, however, have rejected the Russian initiatives, regarding them as
the desire of a weaker side to limit the potential of a stronger side.

Discussions of
this very issue divided states, and countries fell into two camps, depending on
what views they held about the future of the World Wide Web. The U.S. and its
NATO allies found themselves on one side of the divide, and Russia, China,
Kazakhstan, Belarus, Armenia, Tajikistan, Iran and a few other countries were
on the other.

Some experts
hastened to dub the virtual conflict between East and West “The Cold War 2.0.”

It is unlikely
that the gap can be bridged and that a comprehensive international agreement
will be prepared any time soon. Moscow and Washington harbor no illusions about
persuading the other to change its stance. Instead, they are trying to avoid a
disaster.

It is very hard —
and, for the most part, unrealistic — to trace the source of an attack. Since
Washington and Moscow reserve the right to react to cyber incidents as if they
were traditional acts of aggression, the situation could very well be
catastrophic. To prevent such a catastrophe, the parties are trying to agree on
confidence measures, such as exchanging information and setting up hot lines in
the event of massive cyberattacks.

Considering the
current deterioration of Russian-American relations, international information
security remains just about the only area where a breakthrough is possible.
However, barring an early agreement on confidence measures, cyberspace may
cease to be a unifying element and a potential area of practical cooperation
between Russia and the U.S. and become an arena of confrontation.

Yelena Chernenko is a doctoral candidate in historical
sciences and an international affairs observer at Kommersant newspaper