The Golden Goggle Awards are USA Swimming’s yearly awards gala, and they’ll happen tonight in New York City. You can follow along on the USA Swimming website, which will livestream the event. Follow the link here.

In the interviews after NCAA Division I championship this year, Texas Longhorns Coach Eddie Reese raved about sophomore Clark Smith. Eddie knows something about mid-distance; he’s had a current or former Longhorn on every USA men’s Olympic 4×200 free relay team since 1988.

Smith was a highly touted recruit out of high school, but failed to make the championships at all as a freshman in 2014. He bounced back in a big way in 2015, throwing down big times in-season, and then becoming the first Longhorn to ever win the men’s 500 free at the NCAA Championships.

One of the big debates in the comments on this site, as well as in the larger swimming community, has to do with to what extent success into NCAA/SCY swimming translates into success in LCM swimming. This is a difficult thing to quantify, but it seems like Smith is heading in the right direction this long course season. As I write this, he ranks sixth in the US this year in the 200 free and third in the 200 fly.

But still, I wanted to take a look at trends, and see if there is anyway to predict future LCM success based on NCAA victories. Specifically, I decided to analyze the track record of 500 free championships in making and succeeding at the Olympics. Here’s what I discovered, dating back to 1989:

Year

Name

School

Country

Olympic Year(s)

Olymic Event(s)

Medals

2015

Clark Smith

Texas

USA

N/A

2014

Christian Quintero

Southern California

Venezuela

2012

200 free, 400 free, 4×100 free

2013

Connor Jaeger

Michigan

USA

2012

1500 free

2012

Martin Grodzki

Georgia

Germany

N/A

2011

Matt McLean

Virginia

USA

2012

4×200

Gold (4×200)

2010

Conor Dwyer

Florida

USA

2012

400 free, 4×200

Gold (4×200)

2009

Jean Basson

Arizona

South Africa

2008

200 free, 4×200

2008

Sebastien Rouault

Georgia

France

2008

400 free, 1500 free

2007

Larsen Jensen

Southern California

USA

2004, 2008

400 free, 1500 free

Silver (1500 free); Bronze (400 free)

2006

Peter Vanderkaay

Michigan

2005

Peter Vanderkaay

Michigan

2004*

Peter Vanderkaay

Michigan

USA

2004, 2008, 2012

200 free, 400 free, 1500 free, 4×200 relay

Gold (4×200); Bronze (200 free); Bronze (400 free)

2003

Eric Vendt

Southern California

USA

2000, 2004

1500 Free, 400 IM, 4×200

Gold (4×200); Silver (400 IM0

2002

Klete Keller

Southern California

USA

2001

Klete Keller

Southern California

USA

2000, 2004, 2008

200 free, 400 free, 4×200

Gold (4×200); Silver (4×200); Bronze (400 free)

2000*

Ryk Neethling

Arizona

South Africa

1999

Ryk Neethling

Arizona

South Africa

1998

Ryk Neethling

Arizona

South Africa

1996, 2000, 2004, 2008

100 free, 400 free, 1500 free, 4×100 free

Gold (4×100 free)

1997

John Piersma

Michigan

USA

1996

200 free; 400 free

1996

Tom Dolan

Michigan

USA

1995

Tom Dolan

Michigan

USA

1996, 2000

200 IM, 400 IM

Gold (400 IM); Silver (200 IM)

1994

Chad Carvin

Arizona

USA

2000

4×200, 400 free

Gold (4×200)

1993

Marcel Wouda

Michigan

Netherlands

1992, 1996

200 IM, 400 IM, 4×200, 100 breast, 4×100 medley relay

Bronze (4×200)

1992

Artur Wojdat

Iowa

1991

Artur Wojdat

Iowa

1990

Artur Wojdat

Iowa

1989

Artur Wojdat

Iowa

Poland

1988, 1992

200 free, 400 free, 1500 free, 4×200

Bronze (400 free)

*Technically, these were 400m freestyle events, as the NCAA championships were swum in 25m pools those two years. But for sake of continuity, and since both of those men won 500 yard championships as well, I left them in the table.

Quick Analysis:

18 individuals over 27 seasons.

Of those 18 champions, all except Smith and Martin Grodzki already were, or became, Olympians.

In 2012, Grodski won the 1500m at the German Olympic Trials, and was under the FINA “A” cut, but was not selected for the team, since he did not finish under Germany’s self-imposed standard of the top 10 times from the 2011 World Championships.

Of the sixteen who have made the Olympics, eleven have won medals.

Ten have competed in the 4×200 free relay.

Ten have competed in the 400 free.

Except Grodzki, everyone who has won the 500 free in an Olympic year made his country’s Olympic team that year.

Conclusion: winning the 500 free shows that either a) you’re already an Olympian, or b) you’re soon to be at that level, and most likely in the mid-distance events. I haven’t analyzed every NCAA event, and obviously there are some pretty major examples of men who won an event or two, but never were able to make the transition to long course. Regardless, the evidence over the past 27 years makes is pretty clear that the 500 free is not a short course event you can “fake” your way through, and a win here means you can hang with the big boys in the big pool.

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Very well researched article – nice job (although all the international commentors will still pooh pooh NCAA’s).

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3 years ago

Brad Flood

Artur Wojdat won his 1988 Olympic Bronze Medal prior to matriculating at Iowa, which (I believe) makes him the only one on this list that won a medal prior to winning their (first) 500 at NCAA’s. Fairly certain the only one to win an individual medal prior to matriculating. As a side note, he also won Bronze in both the 200 & 400 Meter Freestyles at the 1991 LC World Championships, which were held in January (’91), mid NCAA season of his Junior year. Great analysis. From my 25 years of NCAA coaching, I have found that the non-Americans obviously come to the NCAA with pretty sound “meter” abilities and have to “adapt” to learn how to swim/pace the 500… Read more »

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3 years ago

Jim C

I would worry that SCY swimmers would have problems swimming longer LCM events. The 500 SCY is actually longer than the 400m and certainly longer than a 200m relay split.