ICE Case Studies

Case Number: 1

Case Identifier: NILE

Case Name: Nile River Dispute

I. Case Background

1. Abstract

The Nile river is the main source of water for the nine nations which make
up the Nile basin. As is, the water provided by the river is barely enough
to satisfy the enormous water demands of the region. By the year 2000,
it is expected that at least six of the nine nations which share the Nile's
water will experience acute water stress (Ohlsson, 50). Access to the Nile's
waters has already been defined as a vital national priority by countries
such as Egypt and Sudan. It is an issue over which the two nation's have
professed themselves willing to got to war over. Current tensions between
Egypt and Sudan, its neighbor to the south, are merely a continuation of
a two thousand year-old struggle over who will control the regions scarce
water resources. As more of the nations in the Nile valley develop their
economies, the need for water in the region will increase. And while the
demand for resources increases, the supply is likely to remain unchanged,
drastically increasing the chances for armed conflict over the waters of
the Nile river. In addition, development projects that are aimed at increasing
the flow of the Nile remain endangered by tension and instability in the
region, as well as by environmental and financial concerns.

2. Description

The Nile probably gets its name form "nahal" which means "river valley"
in Semitic, later "neilos" in Greek and "nilus" in Latin. It is the world's
longest river, stretching 4,187 miles from its source in the mountains
of Burundi. The source of the river is so far from the Mediterranean that
it took man until the middle of the 20th century to find it (Adv, 1). For
centuries, the most accurate source of knowledge on the location of this
source were the writings of Herodotus (Greek Historian, 460 BC), who wrote
that the Nile's source was a deep spring between two tall mountains. When
Nero ordered his centurions to follow the flow of the river in order to
find its source, they got no further than the impenetrable valley of the
Sudd. John Henning Speke thought that he had finally found the source when
he reached Lake Victoria in 1862, only to be later proven wrong and forgotten
by history. In 1937, the source was finally stumbled upon by the little
known German explorer Bruckhart Waldekker (Collins, 4-8).

The Nile is formed by three tributaries, the Blue Nile, the White Nile,
and the Atbara. The White Nile rises from its source in Burundi, passes
through Lake Victoria, and flows into southern Sudan. There, near the capital
city of Khartoum, the White Nile meets up with the Blue Nile which has
its source in the Ethiopian highlands, near Lake Tana. Over 53% of the
Nile's waters come from the Blue Nile. The two flow together to just north
of Khartoum, where they are joined by the waters of the Atbara, whose source
is also located in the Ethiopian highlands (Ody, 1).

The river then flows north through Lake Nasser, the second largest man-made
lake in the world, and the Aswan Dam before splitting into two major distributaries
just north of Cairo. The two distributaries are the Rosetta branch to the
west and the Darneita to the east. In ancient times, the number of distributaries
was much greater, but slow water flow, human interference, and the accumulation
of silt had led to the disappearance of all the other major distributaries.
This has effectively led to the desertification of large stretches of Egyptian
land.(Ody, 1)

The Conflict

In ancient Egypt, the Nile, and its delta, were worshiped as a god.
The god Hapi, who came in the shape of a frog, represented the Nile delta.
Several times throughout history, Egyptians have tried to unify the Nile
valley under their rule by conquering the Sudan. The lands to the south
of them that bordered the river were in constant danger. The Sudan was
invaded during the reign of Queen Sheba, during the Roman rule of Nero,
and countless other times. This is because the Egyptians have always feared
that one day the Nile's waters would no longer reach their country. People
believed, that since the flow of the Nile was so unpredictable, something
had to have been affecting it. A legend says that during one particularly
bad famine in Egypt, the Egyptian Sultan sent his ambassadors to the king
of Ethiopia in order to plead with him not the obstruct the waters. A Scottish
traveler in the 18th century recounted a story that the King of Ethiopia
had sent a letter to the pasha in 1704 threatening to cut off the water.
Given this fear it is quite natural that the Nile countries desire to secure
their water supplies.(Collins, 3-4)

The modern history of the Nile conflict began with the 20th century.
The English were quick to realize the importance the river would have for
their colonies. Over the centuries, in the swamps of the Sudd, strong winds
and the force of the river had created natural dams made up of plants and
soil, similar to those made by beavers. These dams had made all navigation
up the Nile past a certain point completely impossible. Soon after Sudan
was reconquered in 1898, the English began to free the Nile of the vegetation
which was obstructing the passage of ships. By the time enough blockages
had been removed to clear a path through the Sudd in 1904, the English
had already begun drawing up massive alternative drainage plans in order
to ameliorate the flow of the Nile. However, the British did not control
the Ethiopian portions of the Nile, from which over 80% of the Nile's waters
come. Therefore, they had to sign an agreement with the Ethiopians in 1902
in order to assure themselves that the Nile would not be interfered with.
They also had to assert a significant amount of pressure on the Italians
and the French so that they would not interfere with the french dominance
of the Nile basin (Collins, 67-100). This approach worked well with the
Italians, but a little less well with the French. The Egyptians caused
the most problems for the English as planned developments on the Nile became
a disputed matter between the two governments. In 1929, Great Britain sponsored
the Nile Water Agreement, which regulated the flow of the Nile and apportioned
it use (Glassman, 150).

After World War II, the British government commissioned a complete hydrological
study to be made of the Nile Basin as a whole. Unfortunately, the study
was not able to include the Ethiopian portions of the Nile due to political
problems. The rest of the Nile valley was included. The study was finally
released in 1958 as the Report on the Nile Valley Plan. It was the culmination
of 50 years of study. The report suggested various ways to increase the
amount of water which reached Egypt. The most important of these suggestions
was the construction of the Jonglei canal, which would divert the flow
of the Nile in southern Sudan (in the Sudd) to avoid the enormous evaporation
losses which occur there. The report, however, treated the entire Nile
Basin as a single unity, which was unacceptable to the newly independent
African states, especially since it was published just two years after
the Suez Canal incident (Ohlsson, 31-34)

Furthermore, the Egyptians had already planned a major construction
which would significantly improve the flow of the Nile in their territories.
They had decided to build the High Aswan Dam in order to control the yearly
floods of the Nile and in order to harvest the hydroelectric power of the
river. However, this project was to have major repercussions on the lands
of northern Sudan. Building this dam would mean that whole sections of
northern Sudan would be inundated by what was to be Lake Nasser. There
were also severe environmental concerns as to how the dam would change
life on the banks of the Nile. To deal with this problem, the two nation
signed an agreement on the "full utilization of the Nile waters" in 1959.
This agreement stipulated that Sudan's yearly water allotment would rise
from the 4 billion cubic meters stipulated in the 1929 agreement to 18.5
billion cubic meters. The Sudan would also be allowed to undertake a series
of Nile development projects, such as the Rosieres Dam and the Jonglei
Canal. In exchange, Egypt would be allowed to build a huge dam near the
Sudanese border which would regulate the flow of the river into Egypt and
provide water during droughts. The result of this dam, however, would be
the inundation of over 6,500 square kilometers of land. The treaty also
formed a joint committee which would be in charge of supervising and directing
all development projects which affected the flow of the river (Ohlosson,
35-40).

This agreement was only bilateral and did no include any of the other
riparian countries of the Nile despite the fact that it portioned out all
of the Nile's water. Ethiopia, from which 80% of the water comes from was
not even consulted and no water was even allotted for future usage by any
upstream country except Sudan. All of the Nile's average water flow is
divided between the two most downstream countries. Nevertheless, this 1959
agreement is still the most comprehensive agreement ever signed on the
use of the Nile's waters.

Apparently, the residents of northern Sudan and southern Egypt were
not consulted on the treaty either. In the 1960's, over 100,000 Nubians
lost their homes due to development projects stemming from that treaty.(Pearce,
29) Some of these same people had to be moved again in the 1990's in order
to build another dam, this time near the border with Ethiopia. The government
of Sudan says that these people will be compensated, but the overwhelming
feeling amongst the villagers is that they will not be. One villager claimed
"We were not informed when the government decided... to build a dam in
our area. They just sent tractors with a large number of strangers. These
strangers were surveyors." (Nhail, 1-3).

Construction of the High Dam at Aswan began in 1959 -- as soon the agreement
with Sudan was signed. When it was finally finished in 1970, the dam was
more than 17 times the volume of the Great Pyramid at El Giza. It now stretches
4 kilometres across the river's path, rises over 100 meters for its base,
and is almost a kilometer thick. Behind it, the waters have formed Lake
Nasser, which is 600 kilometers long and 50 kilometers wide in some places.
This reservoir is the second largest man-made lake in the world. The Aswan
Dam is arguably one of the great architectural accomplishments of the 20th
century. To build it, Egypt had to obtain outside funding, because it was
to cost over one billion dollars to build. Rebuffed by the United States
and the World Bank, Nasser had to turn to the Soviet Union, which was only
too glad to help (Pearce, 28-29)

In the 1970's Sudan and Egypt began the joint construction of the Jonglei
Canal, which would have increased the flow of the Nile waters by diverting
the Nile away from an area where a great deal of water is lost to evaporation.
Unfortunately, construction was stopped in 1983 one hundred kilometers
short of completion due to "rebel action". The civil war in the Sudan has
taken its toll on the development project, which was funded in large part
by the World Bank. The failure of this project was a great failure for
both the Sudanese government and the World Bank. Over 100 million dollars
were spent on the Jonglei Canal project (Pearce, 31).

The most complete agreement on the use of the Nile waters remains the
1959 agreement between Sudan and Egypt. This agreement, however, did not
put an end to the conflict over the rights to the Nile waters. A strong
tension still exists between the Nile basin countries whenever a new Nile
development project is proposed. The water needs of all of these countries
are barely being met now and will probably not be met in the future, especially
in view of the development plans in Ethiopia and Sudan. In addition, Egypt,
as the country most in danger of losing access to the Nile waters by development
projects in other countries, remains willing and able to intervene militarily
in order to keep the status quo.

In August 1994, it was reported that Egypt had planned and subsequently
canceled an air raid on Khartoum, in Sudan, where a dam is being built.
This is in addition to the tensions between Sudan and Egypt over the attempted
assassination of President Muhbarach in the summer of 1995. Border clashes
became common between the two neighbors and conflict seemed probable. The
tensions have now seemed to subside, but there is no telling when and if
they will resume.(El-Kohdary, 1-3)

Egypt has also acted against Ethiopian development on the Nile in the
past. In the early 1990's, it is believed that Egypt blocked an African
Development Bank loan to Ethiopia for a project which might have reduced
the flow of the Nile's water into Egypt. This behavior is not unwarranted
given predictions by USAID that Egypt will experience a 16 to 30 percent
water deficit by the end of the century. This will probably be further
increase by further Egyptian development projects planned for the Nile.
(El-Kohdary, 1-3)

In 1997, Egypt is to begin the construction of a new valley of the Nile,
but creating a new, self-sustaining, river which would flow through the
Western Desert. To do this they would cut a canal, called the New Valley
Canal, which would connect a series of oases to one another. This would
allow Egypt to settle a large number of people far from the Nile; something
which has proven impossible up until now. Over 62 million people live on
just 4% Egypt's land. This project would allow Egyptians to take advantage
of the good soil quality which is prevalent throughout the country. However,
the estimated cost of the project is 2 billion dollars, which Egypt does
not have. However, the real problem remains that of where Egypt will find
the water to fill the canal and to keep it flowing as it already its full
allotment of the Nile's water (Daniszewski, A1, A16)

3. Duration: In Progress (1904 to now)

4. Location

The main actors, for the moment, are Sudan, Egypt and Ethiopia. However,
as populations continue to grow and water needs increase in the region,
all of the countries in the Nile Basin will be affected.

II. Environment Aspects

6. Type of Environmental Problem: WATER

In Northeastern Africa, water is a scarce commodity. Yet it is also a vital
one, as it is needed for irrigated agriculture, industrial expansion, and
human consumption, In the Nile basin, the river remains the only reliable
source for renewable water supplies. Underground water supplies, or aquifers,
an only ba harvested once and will eventually run out. This place the Nile
basin countries in a position of reliance on the waters of the Nile. (Postel,
1-23)

The waters, however, do not flow in sufficient quantities to satisfy
the future water requirements of all these nations. The nations are barely
satisfied by what they now receive and it is foreseen that their needs
will increase as populations rise, industrial growth takes place, and more
land is irrigated with Nile water for agricultural use in nations besides
Egypt. Egypt's cropland is already 100% irrigated, fostering an amazing
reliance on the flow of the Nile. It is estimated that Ethiopia and Sudan
could achieve high levels of food production if they chose to irrigate
as much land as possible.

Water stress is present when nations find themselves with less than
2000 cubic meters per person of renewable water supplies. By the end of
the century at least five nations in the Nile basin expect themselves to
be suffering from water stress. This figure does not include the water
that would be needed to feed the citizens of the Nile countries. It is
unlikely that the flow of water in the Nile could be increased without
the completion of the Jonglei Canal, which, given Sudan's internal problems,
seems highly unlikely in the near future. (Ohlosson, 178-194)

In addition, the environmental situation is further complicated by the
problems surrounding the Aswan Dam. Even though the environmental damage
to Egypt's environment caused by the Dam has been much less than originally
predicted, it is still quite significant. One major problem is that the
silt from the river which for millennia fertilized Egypt's cropland is
no longer being allowed to flow down the river. This means that more chemical
fertilizers are being used. It is also causing erosion along the banks
of the Nile, which were previously replenished by the silt carried down
the river. Much of the Nile delta is now being swept into the Mediterranean.
In fact, if barriers near the Nile's outlet continue to erode, much of
low lying Egypt could find itself in the sea, as the sea slowly advances.
The Nile is also bringing more salt to the fields of Egypt because of the
increased evaporation which takes place in Lake Nasser. (Pearce, 32)

This evaporation also presents a severe problem. Over 2 metres of water
evaporate from the surface of Lake Nasser every year. this is because or
its location in the middle of the desert. For this reason many opposed
the construction of a dam in that location. A similar dam in the highlands
of Sudan or Ethiopia would lose much less water. However, if the dam were
located elsewhere, Egypt would lose out on the hydroelectric power the
dam provides (roughly one third of Egypt's electricity) (Pearce, 31-32).

7. Type of Habitat: DRY

8. Act and Harm Sites:

Act Site Harm Site Example
Egypt Sudan Plans for diversion of the Nile

III. Conflict Aspects

9. Type of Conflict: INTERSTATE

Although war has not yet broken out between the nations involved, some
believe growing demands may eventually lead to armed conflict. Signs of
this trend are already surfacing. There have been numerous skirmishes between
Sudanese and Egyptian troops as well as a number of statements made. The
nations of the Nile basin have also classified access to the waters of
the Nile river as a vital national interest over which they would be willing
to go to war.

For now, there has been enough water to satisfy most of the nations'
needs, but in the near future those resources which have been left top
them will cease to suffice.

10. Level of Conflict: THREAT

11. Fatality Level of Dispute: >10

III. Environment and Conflict Overlap

12. Environment-Conflict Link and Dynamics: DIRECT

The dynamics are the result of feedback between water resources and development
needs, especially water. The internationalization of the issue adds another
element.