Apple has grounded speculation of a fall release of "iPad 3," focusing its marketing message on the iPad 2 it will soon offer for sale by calling 2011 "the year of iPad 2."

Apple's chief executive Steve Jobs noted at today's event that 2010 was "Year of the iPad," and alluded to talk that suggests the company will face competition from an avalanche of competitors, including Google's Android 3.0 on the Motorola Xoom and Samsung Galaxy Tab, HP's webOS tablet, and BlackBerry's new QNX PlayBook, by rhetorically asking if 2011 would be the year of iPad copycats.

After detailing iPad 2's features and price, which Jobs pointed out to still be substantially cheaper than the entry level tablet being offered at $799 (another allusion to Motorola's Xoom), Jobs added, "when you add this together with over 65,000 apps, we think 2011 is going to be the year of iPad 2."

iPad 3 speculation

Jobs wouldn't have said that were he planning to introduce another iPad model this summer, indicating that speculation initiated by John Gruber's Daring Fireball blog that Apple might deliver a third generation iPad before the end of the year is not in the works.

Nearly a month ago, Gruber wrote, "I think the iPad fits most naturally into the same schedule as the iPods: where new hardware is announced and ships in September. The iPad was a massive hit during this past holiday season. I dont think April is a particularly good month for an annual iPad release."

He added, "My gut feeling is that Apple will move the iPad to a September release schedule, alongside the iPods. But they wouldnt want to wait over a year and a half from the announcement of the original iPad to announce the second one not with these stakes, and not with so many serious competitors trying their best to catch up."

He predicted Apple would release iPad 2 in March for an April release, then ship iPad 3 in September alongside the new iPod touch, suggesting that it could be "iPad 2.5" or "iPad HD," using the double-resolution 2048×1536 screen that evidence has pointed toward being part of the next iPad. A variety of other industry writers subsequently echoed the same idea.

MG Siegler of TechCrunch wrote, "we've now heard that this 'fall surprise' is related to this would-be iPad 3. We don't have any more concrete information beyond that. But, as of right now, the plan is apparently to release one iteration of the iPad in the next few weeks. And then blow the doors open with another new version in the fall."

Jim Dalrymple of The Loop described Apple's possible iPad strategy as being like the iPod nano, writing "Remember the iPod mini? It was Apples most successful iPod outselling all other models of its time. And Apple discontinued it. Just as the competition could say, 'we have a music player just like the iPod mini,' Apple canceled it and started over, releasing the iPod nano. This threw the competition into a tailspin. I wouldnt be surprised to see Apple do it again, this time with the iPad."

iPad 3 component reports

Based on checks with Ming-Chi Kuo of Concord Securities, AppleInsider reported that iPad 3 does appear to be targeted for a higher 2048x1536 resolution, but that its release would likely be further out rather than being a September release.

In the interim however, Apple is thought to be working on a device that is not an iPad, but rather sized between it and the iPod touch. Other rumors have supported the potential for a new iOS device with a screen between 5 and 7 inches (roughly 12 to 18 cm), but this is unlikely to be a scaled down iPad for the same reasons Jobs criticized iPad competitors trying to release 7 inch tablets last fall.

Jobs' prediction that small tablets would not be popular and would subsequently be replaced by competitors' iPad-sized models this year, leaving their early adopters stranded without any upgrade potential, has been proven true by the failure of devices like the Dell Streak and Samsung Galaxy Tab. Both companies are now talking about 10" tablets, although they are, like Motorola, finding it difficult to match Apple's prices.

It is possible that Apple could release an oversized iPod touch, likely aimed at gaming and young users, this fall as part of its iPod event. However, it appears clear that Apple won't be releasing multiple iPad editions through the rest of 2011, leaving customers focused on the new iPad 2.

Jobs' prediction that small tablets would not be popular and would subsequently be replaced by competitors' iPad-sized models this year, leaving their early adopters stranded without any upgrade potential, has been proven true by the failure of devices like the Dell Streak and Samsung Galaxy Tab. Both companies are now talking about 10" tablets, although they are, like Motorola, finding it difficult to match Apple's prices.

And yet the fandroids, trolls, and all-around Apple-haters will find some way to spin this story.

"But, but... wait till the release of Android 'Septic-tank'!!! That will really give Apple a run for their money! Mark my words!!! It'll even run Flash for 45 minutes!!!!"

Truth be told, there is ZERO incentive for manufacturers to offer upgradeable devices. They are in the business of selling hardware. Android is set to fail face-first in the mud because of it. The manufacturers deserve everything that is coming to them. They had DECADES to get it right and just sat by the sidelines selling the same old garbage. Now comes Apple, and they all stand on the sidewalk assaulting Apple's iPad as a dismal "failure" waiting to happen. The media as well changed their tune quickly. Bunch of hypocrites that should be fired on the spot for having such a narrow field of vision.

Way to go Steve! Glad to see you're on your feet! Thank goodness there are people like you to b!tc#-slap the PC-tech heads. It was LONG overdue!!!

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Nearly a month ago, Gruber wrote, "I think the iPad fits most naturally into the same schedule as the iPods: where new hardware is announced and ships in September. The iPad was a massive hit during this past holiday season. I dont think April is a particularly good month for an annual iPad release."

IDK. I think spring is a good month for the iPad revs. Since I think a lot of people look at a iPad as something they can take with them instead of a laptop on vacation, getting out in the Spring gives customers plenty of time to purchase before going on vaca. They use it, see how much they like it and it feeds right into the "Back to School" and "Holiday Gift" ideas later in the year.

Besides, Summer has the iPhone. Fall has the iPods. You don't want to release something near the holidays.

Jobs wouldn't have said that were he planning to introduce another iPad model this summer,

source?

Aside from saying it's the year of the iPad 2, there's nothing to substantiate this. Any reason this excludes an iPad 2.5, iPad 2 hd, or just changing their mind and making it the year of the iPad by releasing two versions?

Jobs does not play such cute petty word games. he uses lots of hype, yes, but not pure baloney. there won't be an iPad 3 this year, or 2.5 or HD.

yup, instead a 5.5" iPod touch makes plenty of sense. there's are real market niche there. the "big pocket" market. the low-price market (for families with kids especially). coming in the Fall. but we will never see a 7" iPad, something else Jobs made ultra clear.

the iPad 2 is really nice. the whole package is greater than the sum of its parts (and specs). the one big thing next year's iPad 3 might improve is cutting the weight a lot more with a carbon fiber shell. [edit] and oh yeah, a retina display and 4G. those three together in 2012 would be a Big Deal.

Apple obviously prefers using dongles for expanding connectivity - last year's camera connection kit with USB and SD reader, VGA adapter, AV cables, and now the HDMI accessory. and also expanding wifi LAN connectivity, adding AirPlay for Apple TV and licensed accessories. so why do blog dummies keep writing about adding more physical ports to iPad? it ain't gonna happen, guys. you blind?

and of course iOS 5 is coming this spring to IPhone with yet more capabilities, likely to be brought to the iPad in the Fall too. i suppose Apple TV will get a big update then too.

And yet the fandroids, trolls, and all-around Apple-haters will find some way to spin this story.

"But, but... wait till the release of Android 'Septic-tank'!!! That will really give Apple a run for their money! Mark my words!!! It'll even run Flash for 45 minutes!!!!"

Truth be told, there is ZERO incentive for manufacturers to offer upgradeable devices. They are in the business of selling hardware. Android is set to fail face-first in the mud because of it. The manufacturers deserve everything that is coming to them. They had DECADES to get it right and just sat by the sidelines selling the same old garbage. Now comes Apple, and they all stand on the sidewalk assaulting Apple's iPad as a dismal "failure" waiting to happen. The media as well changed their tune quickly. Bunch of hypocrites that should be fired on the spot for having such a narrow field of vision.

Way to go Steve! Glad to see you're on your feet! Thank goodness there are people like you to b!tc#-slap the PC-tech heads. It was LONG overdue!!!

Praise the lawd brother!! Preach it!!!!
I'm already talking in tongue.
HIP HOP THE HIPITY THE HIPITY THE HIP HIP HOP YOU DON'T STOP!!!!
Apple has done it again. This is a very clean update to the iPad 1. I love it.
The competition will be pushing back their sh** now probably till Xmas. Xoom? Child please. That trash is a step back to the day when they were burning witches.
I'm selling my iPad 1 16 gig with wifi/3G and getting the iPad 2 32 gig wifi/ 3G. I'm so freaking stoked right now. Hell yeah!!!!

Aside from saying it's the year of the iPad 2, there's nothing to substantiate this. Any reason this excludes an iPad 2.5, iPad 2 hd, or just changing their mind and making it the year of the iPad by releasing two versions?

The tone is definitive but it's not substantiated enough for me

I vote with this. Nothing wrong with releasing an ipad 2 HD (or ipad 2 4g, though I think that's more of a stretch) and it's still the year of the ipad 2. They don't replace the ipad 2, they just grow the product line, and maybe have a price drop on the ipad 2 that would further squeeze competitors. Not saying one way or the other, but simply that it's a stretch to say there won't be an HD model prior to one year from now, based only on what was emphasized today.

I vote with this. Nothing wrong with releasing an ipad 2 HD (or ipad 2 4g, though I think that's more of a stretch) and it's still the year of the ipad 2. They don't replace the ipad 2, they just grow the product line, and maybe have a price drop on the ipad 2 that would further squeeze competitors. Not saying one way or the other, but simply that it's a stretch to say there won't be an HD model prior to one year from now, based only on what was emphasized today.

I second that. There's no reason why Apple couldn't introduce an iPad 2 S/HD/Pro/4G/etc. in September or Q4 2011.

I was fairly certain before today that there would be a fall upgrade. After seeing the "2011 - Year of the iPad 2", I am much less certain.

The one thing that still might make sense is introducing a premium product with Retina Display atop the current line-up if they can acquire displays in adequate quantities. These would probably also require additional RAM so I guess they would be $100 to $200 more expensive.

Apple obviously prefers using dongles for expanding connectivity - last year's camera connection kit with USB and SD reader, VGA adapter, AV cables, and now the HDMI accessory. and also expanding wifi LAN connectivity, adding AirPlay for Apple TV and licensed accessories. so why do blog dummies keep writing about adding more physical ports to iPad? i ain't gonna happen, guys. you blind?

Apple's primary design motivation is THIN. Either you're onboard with this or not. Apple wants light, durable, thin, and long lasting battery life. An abundance of ports doesn't fit into that equation. Most people would never use those ports, so why would apple compromise the design to appease a relatively minor segment of the customer base. If you need a specific input/output peripheral, you can get a dongle for it.

Let me be the first to say that my prediction on a previous thread was wrong. I was sure this would be iPad 1.5, a minimal bump in speed and a few other enhancements, with the real iPad 2 coming in the fall. Hey, if you put stuff out on this this forum that proves to be off the mark, you should own it.

This is hardly surprising. I've always said that the fall iPad3 rumors were completely stupid and came from ignorant minded people. Apple doesn't operate that way, and only a clueless person would even suggest such a dumb thing.

The iPad2 will still be selling a lot around christmas. Tablets aren't about clueless companies jamming in as much specs as they can into a box and calling it a tablet. It doesn't even matter if motorola, samsung, Hp or whoever came out with a quad core tablet in the summer. So what?

Even Steve Jobs said it himself today at the end of the keynote - - - Apple recognizes that the whole tablet experience is a combination of different factors. Other companies (and android fanboys, apple haters and other retards) just don't get that simple fact.

Apple will be selling millions and millions of iPads, while a bunch of clueless people will continue to make dumb predictions and suggestions. These "experts" and "analysts" should offer their great advice to Apple's competitors instead, because they're the ones who could use it.

Apple's primary design motivation is THIN. Either you're onboard with this or not. Apple wants light, durable, thin, and long lasting battery life. An abundance of ports doesn't fit into that equation. Most people would never use those ports, so why would apple compromise the design to appease a relatively minor segment of the customer base. If you need a specific input/output peripheral, you can get a dongle for it.

I believe 'thin' is important but 'minimal' is Apple's design ethos. Less is more.

On that note I can't really see why Apple would bring out a large iPod (or a small iPad - what is the difference?) is there really a 'need' out there? A significant one?

If there is any surprise hardware in the fall other than iPods Including a new 5-6" iPod it will be an Apple TV, a real TV not a set top box. If you're thinking anything else you're not paying attention!

If there is any surprise hardware in the fall other than iPods Including a new 5-6" iPod it will be an Apple TV, a real TV not a set top box. If you're thinking anything else you're not paying attention!

Paying attention? A 6" iPod makes no sense. Too big to be "easily-pocketable" and too small to have tablet-class apps. As for the Television - yes, I want one too - but I think the thing holding Apple back really is a true iTunes TV Show subscription deal. Until Apple can iron out a deal like that I don't see them ever releasing a full-blown TV product. The "Apple TV" is an easy sell, relatively, because of its small asking price. The same would not be able to be said for an Apple Television. An iTunes TV Show subscription deal would give it that "oomph-factor" Apple needs to want to take this product on.

We know Apple would build one heck of a TV, but their hands are tied at the moment.

I was fairly certain before today that there would be a fall upgrade. After seeing the "2011 - Year of the iPad 2", I am much less certain.

The one thing that still might make sense is introducing a premium product with Retina Display atop the current line-up if they can acquire displays in adequate quantities. These would probably also require additional RAM so I guess they would be $100 to $200 more expensive.

I am actually with you on this. It makes it seem unlikely.

It is still pretty silly to declare it "killed" so definitively with a phrase that could easily be spin doctored

The ridiculous thing is that before the "Retina Display" rumour came along - and we still have absolutely no evidence that there's a single grain of truth to it - everybody wanted an iPad 2 much like the one that Apple delivered today. Thinner, lighter, front and back cameras, more powerful CPU (it remains to be seen how much RAM it has). We got all that in addition to two great new apps from Apple. But now there are people who are disappointed because Apple didn't deliver on a promise it never made. We really have no idea when Apple will deliver an Retina Display, whether it's even remotely cost effective to do so, or even if they actually have one planned at all. It should be obvious by now that many (most?) of these rumours are complete fabrications.

I second that. There's no reason why Apple couldn't introduce an iPad 2 S/HD/Pro/4G/etc. in September or Q4 2011.

Agree with this and the similar thoughts being expressed. What's Steve gonna say, anyway? It's "the six-or-so-months-of-iPad 2-until-we-pop-out-a-new-model'? Geez. They just released a new, redesigned, updated product. Naturally, the focus is on that product right now! Why not? Now's now, and the fall is the fall. Meantime, they'll sell a zillion of these things. Even if an iPad 3, or 2 and a half, or whatever, is released this fall, the majority of this year's sales will be of iPad 2 devices. So no matter how you overanalyze this, it's the year of the iPad 2.

The ridiculous thing is that before the "Retina Display" rumour came along - and we still have absolutely no evidence that there's a single grain of truth to it - everybody wanted an iPad 2 much like the one that Apple delivered today.

Gruber tends to not just simply say things like this. Even if he says he's just saying them, there's usually more to it than that. Yes, he says it's a guess, but his guesses are practically always informed ones.

Jobs appearance signified this was a major event. Indeed it was. His appearance and statements indicate this product will last till next year. iPad has the momentum. iPad2 will solidify the lead. 2012 may be the year of iPad3.

If there is any surprise hardware in the fall other than iPods Including a new 5-6" iPod it will be an Apple TV, a real TV not a set top box. If you're thinking anything else you're not paying attention!

just watched the event video. the two things that impressed the most were: (1) simply seeing Jobs look so vigorous and apparently in decent health, and (2) Garage Band.

Garage Band really is a true Wow!! app. for the ridiculously insignificant price of $5 (on top of the iPad purchase price, which you would buy anyway for dozens of other good reasons) you get an entire easiest-to-use-ever orchestra of sophisticated musical instrument synthesizers combined with an easiest-to-use-ever 8 track recording studio. i mean, just five years ago if this software existed - which it didn't and couldn't - you would have had to pay $10,000 for it. or much more. the kids and teenagers of the world (of all ages) are going to go bonkers when they get their hands on it.

Jobs btw has to realize he may not have much time left - tho you never know, he might live to 100 with today's medical technology (i'm sure he gets the latest and most advanced there is). so one thing you can be sure of: he is not going to leave anything new and outstanding he can envision and that Apple can execute undone. and it's absolutely undeniable that today Apple can execute better than any consumer technology company in the world, period - it's not even close. and you know that initial development for 2012 hardware and software is already underway, even while they finish the 2011 models, like an A6 chip and so on ... and conceptual development work for 2013 products has already begun too.

Let me be the first to say that my prediction on a previous thread was wrong. I was sure this would be iPad 1.5, a minimal bump in speed and a few other enhancements, with the real iPad 2 coming in the fall. Hey, if you put stuff out on this this forum that proves to be off the mark, you should own it.

No body ever does on AI Robin. I think it's an unspoken rule. We all get to make insane speculations and when we are proven wrong we ignore it and focus on the great new thing Apple actually did release. We are safe to be crazy here on AI. No one ever apologizes for losing a hand of poker; except maybe only to themselves.

Given Apple's decisions in the past new ipad in the fall is unlikely and I'm not waiting. Ipad 2 looks like a great improvement. If there's a new iPad in the fall that is compelling as iPad 2 is then I'll just buy one of those too.

turtles all the way up and turtles all the way down... infinite context means infinite possibility

Aside from saying it's the year of the iPad 2, there's nothing to substantiate this. Any reason this excludes an iPad 2.5, iPad 2 hd, or just changing their mind and making it the year of the iPad by releasing two versions?

The tone is definitive but it's not substantiated enough for me

He could put it down in writing, and you could still doubt it. There is no reason to think Apple would have one later this year. It's just Gruber's speculation. I read his blog on it, and it didn't seem convincing.

It's much better for Apple to spread out their product releases over the year. It gives them more sales consistency, for one, and it makes it easier for their OEMs to schedule production time.

While having a new model in the fall will increase sales then, it would shrink sales this quarter. There wouldn't be much gain. Apple also likes to have well defined introductions without too many products, so that attention can be focussed on one big thing. I believe that's one reason they stopped going to the Macworlds and other shows.