Why Bet On New York Jets (2-2 SU, 1-3 ATS)

Last Sunday’s 34-17 loss in Rex Ryan’s return to Baltimore may have been the worst performance by the Jets since their gregarious head coach took over (yes, even worse than 2010’s regular-season trip to New England). Mark Sanchez was 11-of-35 for 119 yards and a pick, but he had four fumbles while losing three of them. He feels like he spent the entire game on the run even though Baltimore had just two sacks, and the line really misses injured center Nick Mangold. The Jets couldn’t run the ball (38 yards on 19 carries), which hurt their possession game as they had the ball for just over 22 minutes. The Ravens also ran back three of the Jets’ turnovers for scores.

This means that you can’t get too down on the New York defense as the Baltimore offense wasn’t that great either, the difference was that the Ravens could run the ball a little bit (112 yards). The Jets bothered Joe Flacco into a 37.4 rating, while linebacker Aaron Maybin had a sack in his debut, which is more important as Bryan Thomas (Achilles) is gone for the season. New York also got an interception return from David Harris and a kickoff return from Joe McKnight, so the defense and special teams held their own, the offense just fell flat on their face and that has to be rectified. Mangold (ankle) is doing everything he can to get healthy for this game as Ryan said the Jets would be going back to a run-heavy attack as they try to keep the high-powered Patriots on the sidelines.

Why Bet On New England Patriots (3-1 SU, 3-1 ATS)

After suffering an NFL betting upset in Buffalo that was riddled with turnovers, the Patriots got back on track with a 31-19 win in Oakland and this time it was New England that took advantage of turnovers as they picked off Jason Campbell twice. Tom Brady threw four picks against the Bills, but bounced back to go 16-of-30 for 226 yards and a pair of touchdowns in an efficient performance, but he didn’t need to be Superman as the Patriots had a running game. Rookie Stevan Ridley had 97 yards and a score as the Patriots ran up 183 yards on the ground, and if they can remain balanced, they’re going to be incredibly tough to beat. Wes Welker continued his tear, catching nine balls for 158 yards and a touchdown, and his matchup against the Jets’ Darrelle Revis may be the best one-on-one duel to watch this week.

The defense lives and dies on turnovers as they rank dead last in the NFL in yards allowed, and the Raiders shot themselves in the foot. Now, they’re going to be without defensive leader Jerod Mayo (knee) for the next six weeks, so they could be softened up the middle. Mayo isn’t the only injury worry for the Patriots, as Aaron Hernandez (knee), former Jet Danny Woodhead (ankle) and Julian Edelman (foot) didn’t practice, and we wouldn’t bet on any of the trio to suit up this weekend, but the Mayo injury hurts the defense more. The Patriots can replace all three of those players on offense, but Mayo is the best defender that New England has, hands down.

How It Will Play Out

New England comes into this NFL betting matchup as a 9-point favorite at home, where they are 3-2 SU and 2-3 ATS in their last five meetings with the Jets, with three games going over the posted total. The Jets were here twice in 2010: a 45-3 mauling at the hands of the Patriots in Week 13, which made them 9-point underdogs when they returned to New England in the playoffs. That ended in a 28-21 win for an inspired Jets team, and they’ll need a similar effort this weekend.

It’s tough to back the Jets to win straight up, but you’ll see a team playing with pride this week and that will allow them to at least keep the game close. The Patriots could be susceptible up the middle and the Jets are aiming to run more with Shonn Green and LaDainian Tomlinson, who has long been a thorn in New England’s side. Look for the Jets to cover the sports betting spread this week.

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