Abstract

This article argues the value of models of policy analysis which focus on the role of endogenous variables in explaining policy change. Studies of EMU and studies of German public policy in general have tended to be preoccupied with contextual variables as explanations of change. Whilst such variables are important in identifying necessary conditions of policy change, they underestimate the dynamics within the policy process. Policy change in EMU is explored as a negotiation process with two interacting dimensions: a 'nested', 'two-level' bargaining game, involving creative linkage politics and sophisticated bargaining strategies, and a cognitive dimension of individual policy entrepreneurship and learning in the process. The conclusions deal with the character of economic governance in this sector and with the prospects for EMU in 1998-99.