“The capability differential between
the space programmes of India and Pakistan will increase the regional instability.”
This was stated by Air Chief Marshal (Retd) Kaleem Saadat, NI(M) during his keynote
address as a chief guest at a roundtable organised by the Arms Control & Disarmament
Centre (ACDC) at the Institute of Strategic Studies Islamabad (ISSI) today. Ambassador Aizaz Ahmad Chaudhry, Director General ISSI, welcomed the experts from official departments,think-tanks
and academia at the roundtable. The agenda was to discuss India’s modernisation
of dual-use space programme and its effects on global strategic landscape.

Air Chief Marshal (Retd) Kaleem
Saadat, NI(M) stated that government of Pakistan should actively focus on
maximum utilisation of existing space capabilities to decrease the gap with
India. Pakistan has to set its priorities in outerspace and allocate resources
accordingly. He stressed on the commercialisation of space programme to
overcome the financial constraints.

Dr. Naeem
Salik, Senior Fellow at Centre for International and Strategic Studies (CISS) provided a comparative analysis of space
programmes of Pakistan and India. He identified three areas of Indian space
militarisation: dual-use space platforms, ballistic missile system and linkage
with the nuclear programme. He also talked about the Indian anti-satellite
capability which will lead to new global and regional arms race in outerspace. He
also cited the cyber and laser weapons as new threats to space-based assets.

Husham
Ahmed Cheema, Director Arms Control and Disarmament Division at the Ministry of
Foreign Affairs enlightened the audience about the role of international norms in this issue area. Despite
its support for international norms, India is continuously developing its
ballistic missile programme. India has not signed the Moon Treaty of 1979 but
it has entered into a Space Situational Agreement with the US which will give
it a false sense of confidence that it can track Pakistan`s strategic assets from
outerspace.

Earlier, in his opening remarks, Malik Qasim Mustafa,
Director ACDC-ISSI, said that states are contesting for the “newest war fighting
domain,” and that is “outer space.” Major powers are investing huge resources
to modernise and develop their space programmes with dual-use capabilities. India
has already embarked upon a dual-use space race and a global space competition,
which will have global and regional implications.

Ghazala Yasmin Jalil, Research Fellow, ACDC-ISSI, gave
a briefing on India’s space programme and highlighted its global and regional
implications.

The main issue highlighted during
the discussion was the integration of space technologies with other emerging
technologies like artificial intelligence, information and communication
technologies, cyberspace, lasers and how it will affect the survivability of
deterrence on ground. Participants also discussed the social, economic,
political, diplomatic and military consequences of the Indian space programme. They
agreed that there are always asymmetric ways to counter the technological
development like increasing public private partnership, development of economic
model for self-sustainable space programme, increasing incentive for future
generation in this area, easy availability of data for research and exploration
of new applications of space technologies for sustainable development. Pakistan
must identify it’s redline in outerspace and communicate them to its
adversaries.
While concluding the discussion, Chairman BOG, ISSI Ambassador Khalid
Mahmood talked about the development of dual-use space technologies by India
and their destabilising effect on the deterrence equation in South Asia. On the
issue of future course of action, he said that Pakistan could invest in the indigenisation
of dual-use space technologies and public-private partnership to enhance its
deterrence against India. At regional level, Pakistan and India should start
bilateral negotiations for the CBMs in outer space. At international level,
Pakistan should play an active role in the development of relevant
international norms, he said.