Before the Ohio Election Fraud, this blog was entitled "Fairness". Since November 2, 2004, a day that will live in infamy, this blog has been devoted exclusively to fighting the crimes committed against the citizens of Ohio, and against our American way of life, in the 2004 "election".

November 23, 2004

Baltimore Chronicle on Exit Poll Discrepancies

http://baltimorechronicle.com/112204MargieBurns.shtml

COMMENTARY:Did Bush Lose the Election?by Margie Burns

As things stand right now, it seems unlikely that Mr.Bush won the election.

There are two major categories of problems. Oneaffects the electoral vote. Release of the final exitpolls conducted in all states shows a pattern thatcannot be explained away. The exit polls were released(not to the general public) at 4:00 p.m. on ElectionDay by polling consultants Edison Media Research andMitofsky International.

These are the genuine exit polls for all 50 states andthe District of Columbia, taken before the outcome wasknown in any particular state. These are not the "exitpolls" that organizations including CNN went back andretroactively changed after the election, making themconform more to vote tallies.

The exit poll results are laid out straightforwardlyin a very clear list (tabulation). Compared to thevote tallies given the public, they seem amazing.Contrary to results in every election for the pasttwenty years, the variance between exit polls thepublished vote tally was more than two points--inother words a swing of 4% or 5% or more to Bush, in 33of 51 jurisdictions. Regardless of which candidate wonin those states, a big variance, always in the samedirection, allegedly occurred in every single exitpoll in all of them.

Exit polls from the next nine states down the listwere also reversed by a smaller swing toward Bush inthe published vote tally, including in the District ofColumbia and Maryland. Thus, to sum up, afour-out-five-state swing to Bush is alleged in anelection where every indication showed new voters,independent voters, and younger voters trending towardKerry and/or away from Bush, and in an election whereturnout increased, even though increased voter turnoutgenerally favors the challenger against the incumbent.

Furthermore, this crucial swing occurred in all theclose states: Colorado, Florida, Minnesota, NewHampshire, New Mexico, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsinand Iowa all allegedly had the same "red shift." Mostseemingly shifted more than two points, in other wordsa swing of 4% or 5%, regardless of the size or regionof the state, or whether it went for Bush or Kerry.

A paper titled "The Unexplained Exit Poll Discrepancy"has been published by Dr. Steven F. Freeman, whosePh.D. in organizational studies came from MIT and whoholds professorships at the University of Pennsylvaniaand at an international MBA program founded byHarvard. According to Professor Freeman, the swingbetween exit poll and vote tally is an anomaly even ifyou take just the key battleground states ofPennsylvania, Ohio, and Florida. "The likelihood ofany two of these statistical anomalies occurringtogether is on the order of one-in-a-million," hesays. "The odds against all three occurring togetherare 250 million to one."

Disclaimer: I distrust opinion polls and much otherpolling. I have long worried that incessant pollingcan weaken the individual's reliance on his/her ownjudgment, can plant suggestions, can intimidatereporters, and can manipulate public acceptance of theunacceptable. Following this election, an opinion pollhas already been published suggesting that most peopleare relieved that the outcome was clear.

All well and good, if it was clear. But the integrityof counting votes is essential to our nation'ssurvival as a democracy. Obsession about who is aheadbefore the election, the "horse race" question, isoften silly. But after the election, the question ofwho won is fundamental. No other question is nearly asimportant.

Exit polls are not just polls. They are polls ofpeople who actually showed up to vote, taken justafter the voting, and weighted to take into accountany preponderance of one group. Professor Freeman'spaper points out that exit polls are used to check andverify the validity of elections in countriesincluding Germany and Mexico; when exit pollscontradicted the claim that Eduard Shevardnadze hadwon election in the former Soviet country of Georgia,he was forced to resign under pressure from the USamong others.

Immediate investigation is most urgent in four statesthat the swing from exit poll to published vote tallyalso swung from Kerry to Bush: Ohio, Florida, NewMexico, and Iowa. The many problems already reportedfrom counties and precincts in all four states morethan corroborate the suggestion raised by the exitpoll tabulation. These four states also add up to 59electoral votes, more than enough to have tilted theelection outcome.

The Electoral College is not the whole story.Questions have arisen that affect the popular votecount even in "safe" states. Stay tuned.

Margie Burns writes freelance in Maryland. She can bereached at margie.burns@verizon.net.

"Our lives begin to end the day we become silent about things that matter."
-Martin Luther King, Jr.

This blog is devoted to evidence, investigation, litigation, and prosecution regarding the Ohio election of 2004, especially on issues of fraud, disenfranchisement, voter suppression, vote machine tampering, and recount obstruction.

We welcome submissions of information relating to : (a) evidence, (b) legal documents,
(c) news of legal events, (d) announcements of upcoming legal and informational events, and (e) scholarly analysis and commentary upon evidence relating to the Ohio election of 2004. These should be
emailed to me.
Thanks.
Ray