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Wednesday, November 1, 2017

Turkey’s Silent Al Qaeda Partner in Syria

By Elizabeth Teoman

Key Takeaway:Turkey
is cooperating with al Qaeda to threaten the Syrian Kurdish YPG in northern
Syria. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s intervention in Idlib Province
is setting conditions for a de facto
safe haven for jihadists in Syria that will jeopardize the U.S. campaign
against al Qaeda.

Turkey
is positioned to launch operations against the Syrian Kurdish YPG in northern
Syria. The Turkish Armed Forces (TSK) deployed armored vehicles and around 100 special forces troops to
establish an ostensible ‘de-escalation zone’ in greater Idlib Province, Syria,
on October 12. The cross-border intervention occurred as part of a wider deal brokered
by Russia, Turkey, and Iran at the
Astana Talks on September 14 - 15. Turkey deconflictedits
deployment with Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) - al Qaeda’s Syria affiliate –
despite presenting its operation as a counterterrorism mission to constrain
both al Qaeda and the Islamic State of Iraq and al Sham (ISIS). Turkey instead
intends to use its intervention as a launchpad for future operations against
the majority-Kurdish Afrin Canton in northern Syria. Turkish President Recep
Tayyip Erdogan stated the next stage of TSK operations
will focus on the “issue” of majority-Kurdish Afrin Canton on October 24. Turkey
also seeks to regulate refugee flows and humanitarian aid along the
Syrian-Turkish border in Idlib Province ahead of anticipated pro-Bashar al
Assad regime clearing operations.

Russia is taking military and diplomatic steps to
block Turkey. Russia declared a ‘de-confliction zone’ over
Tel Rifaat and Menagh Airbase north of Aleppo City on September 6. The Russian
Armed Forces have also maintained a detachment of military
observers in Afrin Canton since March 20. Russia is attempting to leverage
these deployments to preempt a potential Turkish offensive targeting the YPG.
Russia also seeks to expand its partnership with the YPG to constrain and
ultimately expel the U.S. from northern Syria. Russia is actively attempting to coopt the YPG into a
diplomatic rapprochement with Syrian President Bashar al-Assad at the expense
of the U.S Anti-ISIS Coalition. The U.S. – YPG partnership is vulnerable
following the U.S. decision to support Baghdad over the Kurdistan Regional
Government’s independence aspirations in northern Iraq. Russia could
successfully exploit this seam to deprive the U.S. of its primary source of
influence in Syria. Russia is also positioned to frustrate Erdogan’s strategic
ambitions in northern Syria, driving Turkey into deeper partnership with al
Qaeda.