This issue of TPQ comes at a time when the relationship of the West with Russia is at its most difficult since the Cold War, and a new cold war is said to be in the making in the Middle East. Turkey is between the two hotspots where this geopolitical upheaval is playing out most dramatically: Crimea and Syria.
Twenty five years after the fall of the Berlin Wall and the optimism it engendered, Euro-Atlantic resolve is being severely tested in the East. In the Levant, four years...

The Euro-Atlantic security situation is more complicated than it has been since the end of the Cold War. There are major security challenges pressing in on Alliance territory across an arc from east to south, and those challenges risk spreading into NATO countries themselves. Particularly due to events in Ukraine, NATO is faced with its most difficult relationship with Russia since the end of the Cold War. NATO does not seek confrontation and poses no threat to Russia. NATO’s objective...

The Middle East region is undergoing its most difficult time in this century. Iraq’s invasion has indeed caused widespread repercussions. The failure of efforts between Turkey and Iran to come to terms with one another in leading the developments in the region on a peaceful co-existence of different sects resulted in an increased polarization of the region. Turkey’s growing involvement in Syria together with the US and some Western partners, helped to generate a counter-bloc...

The period of “stability” in the neighborhood (that started with the development of the European Neighborhood Policy in 2004 and ended at the end of 2010 with the crackdown in Belarus and the Arab Spring in early 2011), which was characterized by the reliance of the European Union on authoritarian and dictatorial rulers in its neighboring countries, is over. The EU has to revisit the paradigms defining how it relates to its neighborhood and quickly make strategic decisions based on...

Five years after the signing of the protocols that aimed at normalization of relations between Armenia and Turkey, the author argues that the tension between Yerevan and Ankara has mounted to a level never seen before. He cites the protocols’ attempt to resolve the historical dispute between the two countries and Turkey’s linking the opening of its border with Armenia with the resolution of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict as the reasons for this failure at normalization. He also points...

This article discusses how trade between Turkey and Abkhazia increased recently, to the detriment of trust between Georgia and Turkey. As Turkish vessels continue violating Georgia’s territorial integrity, Tbilisi has no appetite for seeing Turkey play a stronger role in conflict resolution and confidence building in Abkhazia. Georgia, angered with the blatant violation of its restrictive legal regime over trade with Abkhazia, started capturing Turkish vessels in 2010. This situation...

The recent political changes in the region, such as Russia’s annexation of Crimea and Moldova’s signature of an Association Agreement with the EU, have transformed the political context of the Transnistrian problem, ongoing for the past 20 years. The repositioning of the involved actors – Moldova, Russia, Transnistria, and Ukraine – in the context of these new political realities might be the key to breaking the deadlock surrounding this breakaway region. In this article,...

Throughout history, the Crimean Tatars have challenged Russian aggression by utilizing two main strategies: engaging and confronting. Since its annexation of Crimea in March 2014, Russia has left no room for engagement and has demanded the complete submission of the Crimean Tatar population. This article argues that the Crimean Tatars should not yield to Russian demands, but rather pursue an integrated policy aimed at rallying potential allies such as Turkey, Ukraine, and the EU around their...

Aviation is a major globalizing force for the transfer of people, goods, and power, as well as a tool of positive statecraft. Through intergovernmental and transnational relationships, the United States and European Union have helped countries such as Ukraine and Azerbaijan build capacity – human, technical, and legal – and engage more fully in the global aviation system. These relationships provide Washington and Brussels with avenues of influence and enhance the potential for...

On geo-economic and security grounds, the Black Sea region qualifies to play a much more essential role for Europe, the Middle East, and Asia than it is currently accorded. However, the recent instability in southeastern Ukraine is a trigger for further significant transformations of the region. This article examines the key political tendencies in the Black Sea region in view of the current situation revolving around Ukraine. The author outlines the basic contours of the competition among major...

A real-life “Game of Thrones” is developing in the wider region surrounding the Black Sea and beyond, extending to the Middle East, Southeast Europe, and Mediterranean regions, through multileveled approaches to security and strategy. What ignited separatist movements in the regions of Ukraine in 2014 was just the starting point of a larger change that will eventually affect the balance of power and the future role of states in the area and neighborhood. Developments in the region...

The Chatham House Istanbul Roundtable was created in 2010, one year prior to the Arab Spring, to explore developments in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region. No one at that time could have anticipated the collapse of republican presidencies in Tunisia, Egypt, Yemen, and Libya; the civil war in Syria; the implosion of Iraq; or the rise of the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL). Today, the reality in the region is increasingly complex, messy, and unpredictable. This article...

TPQ convened a discussion on the Southern Gas Corridor (SGC) this Fall to assess geostrategic and economic dynamics of this route, for which the first foundations were laid in Baku on 20 September 2014. The speakers stressed the strategic importance of the SGC for European energy security in light of the impetus to diversify sources of natural gas imports and reduce energy dependence on Russia. The realization of the Trans Anatolian Pipeline (TANAP), which will carry Azerbaijan gas to Turkey and...

We are proud to present our readers with this special issue of TPQ, published in collaboration with Atlantic Council IN TURKEY, which revolves around energy dynamics in Turkey and its neighborhood, in the context of a shifting geopolitical landscape. This issue’s authors evaluate key trends and drivers that are shaping the regional energy landscape—from the Caspian to the...