Dennis Erickson has an experienced team under his command at Arizona State. (AP Photo)

Why we know we’re right: Experience, talent and motivation—a combination that usually leads to championship seasons. Forget about USC being picked to win the Pac-12 South Division; Arizona State is the better team. The Sun Devils have 32 seniors, more than 50 upperclassmen and 18 starters returning. The key to last season was the final game of 2010, when ASU won at Arizona in overtime after trailing by 10 in the fourth quarter. The Sun Devils bonded in that game; a collection of individuals finally playing with and for each other.

Why we might be wrong: The culture of losing—and the way it happened the last two years—has to be overcome. It’s a mental hurdle that many teams can’t navigate. Don’t think this team doesn’t know coach Dennis Erickson must win now or lose his job. That compounds the pressure to win.

Our confidence level in this pick: Solid. If anything, a magical season could evolve where the Sun Devils are playing for much more than the first Pac-12 championship in November. This team should win big; there are no more excuses.

Judgment day: Oct. 15, at Oregon. The Sun Devils should have won last year’s game in Tempe, but couldn’t take care of the ball. If ASU truly is a Pac-12 championship contender, this is the game to show it. Only Cal and Auburn played Oregon better defensively in 2011. Another defensive gem could lead to the biggest win of Erickson’s tenure.

Coach’s job security: Shaky. Erickson could’ve been let go after last season, but this team was a handful of plays (that’s not hyperbole) from winning 10 games. But make no mistake: this is a critical season for Erickson, who likely needs to show significant improvement with a veteran, talented team. If the Sun Devils stumble and underachieve again, Erickson won’t make it to 2012.