… Here is how Georgia’s BCS conference opponents (plus Boise State) did against Grantham’s crew this season. The points are offensive points only; I did not include special teams scores, defensive scores, or safeties. Also, I did not include any stats accumulated against I-AA opponents.

Opponent

Points

PPG

Diff.

Yards

YPG

Diff.

Boise State

35

41.82

-6.82

390

477.6

-87.6

South Carolina

24

24.62

-0.62

395

366.5

28.5

Ole Miss

7

12.55

-5.55

183

277.6

-94.6

Mississippi State

3

20.73

-17.73

213

335.5

-122.5

Tennessee

12

17.82

-5.82

270

323

-53.0

Vanderbilt

21

22.55

-1.55

349

345.8

3.2

Florida

13

20.91

-7.91

226

323.4

-97.4

Auburn

7

19.27

-12.27

195

320.3

-125.3

Kentucky

10

13.82

-3.82

142

242.9

-100.9

Georgia Tech

17

31.00

-14.00

355

441.2

-86.2

Average Point Differential: -7.61

Average Yard Differential: -73.58

Grantham’s crew held every offense below its season average to some extent. He held eight of the ten under their yardage averages as well.

Actually, Year2 understates the case in one respect. 68 of South Carolina’s rushing yards came on that bloody Melvin Ingram fake punt (that if I hadn’t seen with my own eyes still wouldn’t believe had happened) and not against Grantham’s defense. Take that out of the equation and only one team finished with a total offensive yardage amount over its season average against the Dawgs’ defense, Vanderbilt – and that was barely above.

That being said, I think Vandy was the one team this season which caught Grantham unprepared in one area, although to be fair, nobody saw Jordan Rodgers’ success as a runner coming that day. Hell, he wasn’t even the starter.

So maybe one question we ought to be asking is whether LSU plays it straight on offense or whether the Tigers decide to throw Grantham a curve ball. The stats suggest that the more they stick to the script, the better Georgia’s chances are to slow them down.

27 responses to “Second year’s the charm”

If we match our greatest PPG differential (vs. MSU, approx. -18) and LSU’s avg. PPG is 38, that puts them at about 20. I could see our offense scoring 21-24, with a very strong showing. Stupid optimism, you just won’t go away.

I assume that 38 points includes all scores not just from the offense? I think this chart is based upon offensive scoring only. Special teams and defensive scores are taken out.

That is the big key in this game to me. Minimizing LSU’s points/yards on special teams and defensive scoring/turnovers. I think Georgia can hold its own straight up between offense versus defense. It is with special teams and crippling defensive take aways that LSU holds a big advantage.

Yep. Offensively, what LSU did to Arky was a bit out of character for them. They didn’t have pretty yardage stats at all vs. Oregon, WVA, or Bama. The big keys for us are:
1. Win the turnover battle…ideally, by not turning it over at all. LSU is really good at getting TDs off seemingly every INT or fumble they recover.
2. Having the good UGA special teams show up.
Do those things and we may be close enough to win it.

Who knows? That’s why college football is such a great game to follow. Our defense is obviously our strong point, but is it strong enough to stop LSU. Outside of Boise, it’s looked pretty strong all year, and SC was still loaded when we played them. I keep hoping we can just keep it close, but who knows … UGA could even win this decisively. That’s what makes it exciting …

I was gonna say it will come down to special teams, then I thought, well that and our offensive line, then I thought, well that and added our defensive line, then I thought, shit… it is gonna take a near perfect game from us in every phase and possibly a miscue or two from them. If we play them straight up, talent v talent, we probably lose 30-24. If we catch a break or two (and it still might take us playing lights out) we win 30-24.

That’s a lot of points. I was thinking more like 20-17, with Walsh hitting a game-winning 50-yarder and being carried off the field a hero, RSIV hoisting the trophy while leaning on his crutches, and Mark Richt kissing Kathryn for about 2 minutes straight. I can see the confetti raining down now. Stupid, irrepressible optimism.

My bet is that they don’t play it straight on offense, that Jefferson runs a bit more than usual. They are fond of running an occasional option play.

The real worry isn’t our D versus their offense; it has to be special teams. Specifically their return game versus on coverage teams. It’s not unpossible for them to get all the points they need from ST and defense.

I think this will all come down to our defense. With Tyson out, we might be a little weaker, but Grantham has already shown he knows how to hit a curve ball! If our defense plays with ferocious tenacity, we can win it, of that I have no doubt.

Perfection isn’t necessary, just progress. Progress in the running game and in the kicking game. Let’s face it, both have been Jekyll and Hyde-type propositions all year. BUT WE’VE STILL WON!! If we can run the ball well, keep down the return yardage, guard against trick plays and hit medium-to-long range field goals, we have a good chance to win.

And for the record, I’m not bothered by the Jarvis Jones’ comments about his defense. Remember, this is a guy who is a finalist for the Butkus Award. Does LSU have a dog in that hunt? Nuff said.