Democratic Senate Non-incumbents Have Raised Historically High Amounts in the Battle to Gain Majority Control of the Senate

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Democrats running in Senate elections are holding a substantial advantage over Republicans according to the CFI’s analysis of the latest financial reports from the Federal Election Commission. The average Democratic challenger raised more than one-third as much as the average Republican incumbent through June 30. This was the highest challenger percentage for either party at this stage of the race going back through 2004. In contrast, the average Republican challenger has raised only 6% as much as the average Democratic incumbent – a percentage that equals either party’s low point since 2004.

The picture for open seat races is also dramatic. The average Democratic open seat candidate has raised more than twice as much (239%) as the average Republican. The only time either party came close to this much of an advantage was in 2006, when the average Republican open seat candidate had an even greater advantage over the average Democrat (277%). Ironically, 2006 turned out to be an election in which the Democrats ended up with a six seat net gain in the Senate.

These figures are based on reports filed with the Federal Election Commission in late July, covering receipts and expenditure through June 30. The following bar chart shows the average net receipts for all Republican and Democratic incumbents, challengers, and open seat candidates in 2016. Table 1 gives more details, together with historical data for the same time periods for 2004-16. Table 2 shows candidate receipts, expenditures and cash on hand, for each of this fall’s Senate races.

Of course, candidates’ funds represent only part of the financial picture for competitive races. During the general election, we can also expect to see political parties and non-party organizations making millions of dollars' worth of independent expenditures in the battle for majority control. See the accompanying CFI report on the congressional campaign committees released on 8/10/16 for a review of the political parties at this point of the contest.

The Campaign Finance Institute is the nation's pre-eminent think tank for objective, non-partisan research on money in politics in U.S. federal and state elections. CFI's original work is published in scholarly journals as well as in forms regularly used by the media and policy making community. Statements made in its reports do not necessarily reflect the views of CFI's Trustees or financial supporters.