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FORUM: Is the IPA&rsquo;s gloomy outlook a vision of the future? - The IPA&rsquo;s response to the Communications green paper was based on some pretty pessimistic assumptions, such as the notion that free-to-air television might be allowed to wither o

There’s a BT ad around just now featuring a man who’s apparently
blase about the rollercoaster ride he’s about to endure - until the car
slows down to a virtual halt at the top of the first sickening descent
and begins to plummet like a stone. There are quite a few people in the
media industry - especially on the advertiser and media specialist side
of the fence - who are starting to appreciate what that white-knuckle
feeling is like.

There’s a BT ad around just now featuring a man who’s apparently

blase about the rollercoaster ride he’s about to endure - until the car

slows down to a virtual halt at the top of the first sickening descent

and begins to plummet like a stone. There are quite a few people in the

media industry - especially on the advertiser and media specialist side

of the fence - who are starting to appreciate what that white-knuckle

feeling is like.

We’ve seen an accelerating pace of change in media over the past five

years or so and that change has been, on the whole, rather agreeable for

all concerned. But we’re only really starting to wake up now to the fact

that all of this is extremely small potatoes compared with the extent of

change to come.

As digital starts to become a reality, it will stand the media world on

its head. The wholescale migration to digital could eventually create a

television underclass of people unable to afford the paid-for TV and new

technology. They will be left with a few free-to-air channels that will

become increasingly third-rate, stripped of all the best programming.

Even worse, choice for advertisers will be badly affected - subscription

TV will not just have all the best audience, it will also increasingly

exclude advertising.

What more proof do we need for this assumption than the fact that only

20 per cent of Sky Television’s revenues come from advertising? Or the

fact that right-on Channel 4 has just launched a subscription film

channel?

That is certainly the view underlying last week’s response from the

Institute of Practitioners in Advertising to the Government’s green

paper on Regulating Communications. The IPA doesn’t exactly want to

preserve the current situation in aspic - but it certainly wants to

preserve the health of free-to-air television for as long as

possible.

It wants to see a single regulator for television and its role would be