EURHUF - Decision time at Kijun Sen

Daily: Ichimoku setup is absolutely bullish , the question is only where to enter long. So far it looks like 10 days of consolidation was enough only for a Kijun Sen retest. Slow Stoch gives a buy signal. What is also important that with next spike Chikou Span will break above Kumo too, giving further confirmation for the bullish trend .

4 Hrs: Sideaway so far. Just because price came below Kumo, it has not become a valid Kumo breakout, as Price could not even penetrate the short term Key Support. ADX is also super low, means instrument is not trending. DMI corssed bullish , with a price break above Kumo again, and with ADX picking up, it will turn bullish on 4 Hrs time frame too.

Related Ideas

NBH cut base rate by 20 bps to 2,10. This was bigger than mkt expectation of 10 bps... but... I think as they are so much unorthodox, this means they are done with the easing cycle and in the afternoon comment they may signal a pause from here. Probably they feel it was better to do it so rather than to wait one more month for next cut.

Initial spike faded. No momentum gain. I don't like to hold the long so much any more. Global mood is risk on again. News about postponing the conversion of households FX loans to HUF (will happen likely only in 2015) can reduce pressure on HUF in short term, since NBH reserve is not yet in danger. NBH rate decision today, watch for any signals from MPC on further rate path. Watch price action today. Maybe we have to forget bullish trade for now, and we'll see better (lower) entry points later.