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I'm not geologist either, but I would have expected the whole place in '98 differently (the mountain-scene, the dock etc.) if there was a volcano eruption there 12 years ago. I mean bare grass, wasteland, burned down forest etc.
Obviously I've never ever seen a volcano in real (thank Godness) so don't expect me to definitely know what kind of remains such a disaster leaves, and how much time Mother Nature needs to shape it back to seemingly "normal".

However let's also not forget that the police gave the stake Mammon to Ange, which means that Kyrie's corpse (the victim of the 6th twilight ep3) probably wasn't incinerated as the Stake should have been inside the body (I heavily doubt the stake form is insanely durable to endure the heat).

I'd be pretty disappointed if that "theory" is going to be true.
I know! We all should spread inconvenient, unpopular theories like that (as if we completely believe it), so eventually it's going to reach Ryukishi's ear, and he'll totally rebuke it in episode 5!

About the harbor:
A harbor is nothing more than a very large dock, which requires constant maintenance to keep from falling apart. It's not hard to imagine that, after 12 years of typhoons, the dock would be obliterated. I can't remember if they mention Kuwadorian's dock as intact, but it could just be that that side is easier to climb. If the police wanted to seal the island, all they'd have to do is destroy the dock, to keep thrill seekers from coming to it.

Volcano:
One thing I can't make sense of... why would Ange blame Eva for a natural disaster? Falling back to my "the mansion explodes" theory, Ange could believe she rigged the boiler, and thus hated her. However, I can't imagine Ange thinking "Oh, wow, Eva Oba-san is like, the best witch ever, being able to summon Ifrit." >_>; A volcano is not something you can use as a way to cover up a crime scene, unless you throw things into it. You cannot time and eruption. Bloody body parts would not be found. The island would be uninhabitable for days from the ash, sulfur, and lava. The landscape would completely change, and the island would probably sink. Yet it remains exactly as it was, overrun with vegetation.

The mansion's just a big hole in the ground now, so why would Ange want to go there? Plus, it's impossible to get from the hole to Kuwadorian, especially in only those few hours she had. It was a choice... spend an hour staring at a hole, or spend an hour searching the secret mansion.

The thing about the volcano theory is that nobody would see it as a mystery, or believe in some kind of witch. The messages in a bottle were apparently written to plant the concept of Beatrice in everyone's minds, and yet, if there had been a volcano eruption, everything would be far too easy to explain without a witch.

People would just say "a volcano killed everyone and Eva happened to be somewhere else" and that would be the end of that. Nobody would blame Eva for the volcano, or Beato for any killings. The volcano would erase all evidence of any crimes as everyone's bodies would be melted in the lava. In other words, such an occurrence would be game over for Beato in every way.

Now consider that a volcano explosion would apparently have been covered up in Ange's world. An action requires both a method and a motive. It's not easy to cover up a volcano explosion, and someone would have to want to cover it up. Why, when a volcano explosion could never be considered as anyone's fault?

There are too many inconsistencies for it to be a believable theory. Maybe Battler could use it against Beato as blue-text ammo, but it's not really plausible.

If there was any lava, that would have left traces. How did the Witch Hunt ever gain traction in such a case?

Why doesn't anybody (like Okonogi) even suggest it was a landslide or volcano?

In the ep. 1 scroll, why do the police investigate it as a crime scene?

Spoiler for Episode 2 chapel:

How precise is the original Japanese about the time Rosa opened the envelope? The English just mentions she opened it the next day (Oct 5). Is there anything keeping it from being 12:01 AM Oct 5, instead of ~7:00 AM Oct 5?

(This also answers my big problem with the Rosa killer hypothesis. She blew her alibi because she didn't have Kinzo's ring, and couldn't reseal the envelope.)

Spoiler for Twilights:

If you exclude episode 3, which is implied to be the non-Rule Y episode, I noticed that Rudolf always dies at the first twilight, and Maria & Battler always last to the tenth.

Spoiler for Chess:

In her speech late in episode 4 loaded with chess metaphors:

- There are now holes opened all over your ramparts, and I was able to send in
not a bishop, but a full queen!! Do you know what kind of piece a queen is? --> The witch's pieces (or just the Siestas) were bishops. Beatrice is a queen.

- That is why I have progressed through this game by sending in various pieces so
that you cannot stay on a white square, forcing you out in front of me, the
one who controls the black squares next to you. --> Battler has been standing on white squares. White squares are anti-fantasy; black squares are anti-mystery.

- You will finally become covered with pitch black, and surely become a black king...! --> Battler is the white king.

However, a king starts on the square opposite his own color. If Battler is the white king, he started on a black square.

Was Battler born anti-mystery, but has long been converted to anti-fantasy?

Another thing. Look at Maria's crown. Then look at the way the black king is depicted in chess problems. Also, the two kings will always stay on the board until the end of the game. (In episode 3, Virgilia's duel at the first twilight suggests that the game continued well after checkmate occurred.

Was Battler born anti-mystery, but has long been converted to anti-fantasy?

Another thing. Look at Maria's crown. Then look at the way the black king is depicted in chess problems. Also, the two kings will always stay on the board until the end of the game. (In episode 3, Virgilia's duel at the first twilight suggests that the game continued well after checkmate occurred.

My theory on Battler's sin was sort of related to that.

Spoiler:

Battler introduces Maria to magic, but stops believing in it when it fails to save Asumu. He may have promised to play with Maria more / teach her more at the next family conference, but fails to show up. Maria's bitterness then sets some chain of events involving Beato into motion.

Based on these tallies everyone excluding the four cousins and Nanjo has died at least once in the 1st twilight. Out of these 13 Kinzo and Kumasawa have died the least in the 1st twilight, both only dying once in it, and Rudolf has died 3 out of 4 twilights. Everyone else on the list has died 2 times in the first twilight.

Notes:
-Kyrie and Krauss have so far died together in the 1st twilight. When one dies the other dies, as noted in EP 1 and 2. Consequentially, when one survives the other does too. This is the same case for Eva and Hideyoshi, as seen in EP 1 and 3.
-Despite being dead at the start of each situation 'Kinzo' died in the 1st twilight of EP 3.

The 2nd twilight is defined as killing two who are close. Now close can be used in different definitions in this case. It can be considered to be lovers dying together, in the cases of EP 1, 2 and 3, but as seen in EP 4 George and Jessica died in this twilight, despite having no romantic relationship with one another. Out of all characters Jessica has died the most in this twilight, both in EP 2 and 4.

Notes:
-This is the first twilight in which one of the four cousins can actually die.
-Maria dies for the 1st time in any four question arcs during this twilight.
-Despite the fact that they weren't technically near each other when dying George and Jessica share this twilight.
-This is the first time Kanon's body vanished and was unable to be found. We are only confirmed his death in red.
-Another Kanon reappeared later after dying in EP 2, wounded in the same way Kanon was in the 2nd twilight.

Notes:
-Despite being dead at the start of each situation 'Kinzo' died during this twilight. His body was found only after everyone found Kanon dead in the boiler room, yet he is still considered the 4th twilight. He also disappeared from his room beforehand.
-According to what we see in the game, Shannon dies before Gohda and is killed alongside George, yet she is considered the 4th twilight.
-Rudolf's face was completely torn off, despite the game showing us that he was stabbed through the heart. No wound of this manner was found on his body either.
-According to what we see in the game Kanon is killed first after trying to escape the well, yet his head was not gouged as in accordance with the epitaph.
-Due to the nature of all wounds between Kanon, Shannon, Nanjo, Krauss and Kyrie there is no technical way to infer who died first and on what specific twilight. Although stakes are by the body or in the wound there is no other type of visible gouging.

Notes:
-Kanon pulled his stake out of the wound before dying
-Gohda was seen dying before Shannon, yet is listed as dying after her.
-According to what we are shown Hideyoshi dies after Kyrie and Rudolf, yet according to the twilights he dies before Kyrie and after Rudolf.
-Due to the nature of all wounds between Kanon, Shannon, Nanjo, Krauss and Kyrie there is no technical way to infer who died first and on what specific twilight. Although stakes are by the body or in the wound there is no other type of visible gouging.

Notes:
-Genji had his entire face torn off, along with the gouge wound.
-This twilight is the first instance in which one of the four cousins is gouged with a stake.
-Although George died at the same time Shannon did he was listed only dying a twilight after her.
-Although in the game Kyrie died immediately after Rudolf, she is listed as only dying after Hideyoshi did.
-Due to the nature of all wounds between Kanon, Shannon, Nanjo, Krauss and Kyrie there is no technical way to infer who died first and on what specific twilight. Although stakes are by the body or in the wound there is no other type of visible gouging.

Notes
-Nanjo commonly dies on this twilight.
-According to the TIPs Krauss was gouged in his thigh, but it says to gouge the knee.
-Krauss was apparently strangled to death, along with Natsuhi.
-Due to the nature of all wounds between Kanon, Shannon, Nanjo, Krauss and Kyrie there is no technical way to infer who died first and on what specific twilight. Although stakes are by the body or in the wound there is no other type of visible gouging.

Notes
-Kumasawa commonly dies on this twilight
-According to the EP 2 she was killed by "Kanon" but her body was taken away, along with Nanjo. Her throat was cut and then only later was her body found gouged by Genji.
-Natsuhi was apparently strangled to death, along with Krauss. It is most likely that the same person who killed Krauss also killed Natsuhi.
-Due to the nature of all wounds between Kanon, Shannon, Nanjo, Krauss and Kyrie there is no technical way to infer who died first and on what specific twilight. Although stakes are by the body or in the wound there is no other type of visible gouging.

"At the ninth twilight, the witch shall be revived and none shall be left alive."

Notes:
-Natsuhi's death was the second time golden butterflies appeared in EP 1, the first time being Kanon's death.
-No one is listed as dying on the 9th twilight in EP 2.
-This is the first time Battler is killed, rather than going missing. We are shown for the first time a human killing another human.
-Although it cannot be said for sure when Maria, Kumasawa or Gohda died, according to the game it is after Kyrie's phone call to Battler. There is also no type of stake near them or in them either.

"At the 10th twilight, the journey shall end and you should reach the village of gold."

Notes:
-Battler always goes missing, excluding EP 3
-When you view the TIPs of the missing people of the 10th twilight their bodies are always torned off and almost indistinguishable.
-So far either groups of 4 or simply 1 person have gone missing.
-Despite being dead at the start of each situation 'Kinzo' goes missing.
-In EP 2 we are shown Beatrice opening the door to the Golden Land.
-Maria dies on the 10th twilight, when usually people go missing on it (thanks for the correction Tjfarmer)

However, why would the witch side make Krauss pretend he doesn't know anything of Kuwadorian? Why despite Kuwadorian wasn't a secret starting from Episode 3?

I have a perfect counter for this. Why Krauss would deny the existence of the gold when he was sure it existed? You can't certainly say that Krauss couldn't do that. He probably knew that there was a connection between the gold and the kuwadorian.
And about that this is yet another reason to think it was impossible for Krauss to do a half assed job in exploring the island. How could he be stingy when he could gain 20 billion of yen? The Mansion has a big garden and that mean that from above you'd find it without any effort. If Krauss didn't pay for an aerial recognition then he's pretty stupid.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Klashikari

And peaking of Kuwadorian, on the other hand, it is even more suspicious that the witch side shows Nanjo knowing this location (more than a mere rumor) and the fact he already wandered in the corridor.

Why you think so? Considering Kinzo kept a person secluded there he needed a trusted doctor in case Beatrice became sick. To me it's perfectly logical, even if it was on the witch side I really can't see how this could be different.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Klashikari

And how the fact I cannot prove that Ange does trust the police automatically means I cannot debunk your theory? The fact your theory relies on a "non mention of the mansion" and "Ange not checking the mansion" doesn't mean it become untouchable just because I cannot claim with 100% proof that Ange trust what she learned from the police report back at that time.

Oh wait I didn't mean that, I was talking about this particular issue. This is just a circumstantial evidence, however many circumstantial evidences put together can give enough ground to a theory. This particular circumstantial evidence cannot be proven wrong. You may share a different opinion, but that's about it.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Klashikari

You are merging the endingscroll with the witch's record, which I cannot agree.
Episode 4 proved that Episode 1 endingscroll was arguably real, especially Maria's letter. Do you expect me to believe that "conveniently, only the police finding the corpses" portion is a lie, among the text explaining the whole aftermath, the fisherman finding the letter years afterwards etc?

I fear I don't understand what is the witch's record if it isn't the ending scroll. Aren't you talking about the stuff that scrolls down after you finish the game? The part when every name gets listed and it is said how they died?
I'm talking about that anyway, I dunno how do you call it.

@squirrellord

You know what I don't like about your theory? Basically you are using the "Trap X" card to explain the last riddle.
This is basically the same thing Battler always uses whenever he has no other way to explain a murder. In the tea party of episode4 Battler uses it like 10 times.
So my point is... how many chances are there that Battler won't use this card again to explain the last riddle? 0% imho. It is impossible that he can't think about a trap.
So I would see it as an incredible anticlimax if we find out that Battler lost a game that he could have won by using one of his favorite cards. That would be really lame.

very nice stuff Marion, quite a lot to consider.
I want to bring up one thing though, the only thing we know for sure about Kinzo is that he's "Dead at the start of each game". I'm just playing devil's advocate here, but:
11:58pm October 3rd, Kinzo is alive
11:59pm October 3rd, Kinzo is killed
12:00am October 4th, Kinzo is dead at the start of the game.

If we believe that Kinzo only died a short while before the game starts, that would explain Dr.Nanjo's presence. It could be, as to not cause commotion (lol) during the conference, the servants and Nanjo decided against informing everyone that Kinzo was dead, planning on doing it after the family has left. Or perhaps they don't know, that when Genji went there Kinzo was missing, and he had been instructed by Kinzo never to mind such situations, as he will be in Kuwadorian at that time. Nanjo could have been instructed to say he'd been playing chess with Kinzo, as to keep people from wondering where he went off to.

@Jan-Poo
True, that's quite possible. Though we then have to ask for a definition of a trap. I said before that it was Beatrice's "will" to kill Battler when she rigged the boiler. That would definitely be a trap. Now let's say the intention of the boiler is merely to destroy the mansion and remove all evidence, and Battler HAPPENS to be there. Through a bit of word play, it is no longer a trap, but an accident (technically a felony murder)

- There are now holes opened all over your ramparts, and I was able to send in
not a bishop, but a full queen!! Do you know what kind of piece a queen is? --> The witch's pieces (or just the Siestas) were bishops. Beatrice is a queen.

- That is why I have progressed through this game by sending in various pieces so
that you cannot stay on a white square, forcing you out in front of me, the
one who controls the black squares next to you. --> Battler has been standing on white squares. White squares are anti-fantasy; black squares are anti-mystery.

- You will finally become covered with pitch black, and surely become a black king...! --> Battler is the white king.

However, a king starts on the square opposite his own color. If Battler is the white king, he started on a black square.

Was Battler born anti-mystery, but has long been converted to anti-fantasy?

Another thing. Look at Maria's crown. Then look at the way the black king is depicted in chess problems. Also, the two kings will always stay on the board until the end of the game. (In episode 3, Virgilia's duel at the first twilight suggests that the game continued well after checkmate occurred.

The observation with the chess pieces is remarkable. Certainly it's possible that the reason Battler is so obsessively vehement about denying magic and supernatural, because his own "mom" (at least that's how he knows) was unaffected by Battler's attempts of preventing her death via trying to perform alchemy magic. I mean he was 12 at the time, It might be explainable he was desperate to do everything to help her, and It's safe to say he has a very vivid fantasy (i.e minibombs, and how according to him, the victims shoot each other at the same time). He also might have been influenced by Kinzo sometimes in the past, whether intentionally or not.At least Asumu never comes back as a Homonculus Heh... Better not state such things. One never knows with Ryukishi.

It would also explain why the hell Maria wears such a silly crown, if she'd be the "queen" black King?.

Why didn't Natsuhi's headache resurface in Ep4? It made a big deal in 1,2 and only a slight cameo/mention in 3...but as i recall it, in Ep4, it is completely absent. I probably want to blame it on the over-fixation on Ange but are we to suppose it's still there?

- Battler's sin is against whoever was playing Beatrice at that point.
- Of the bodies Battler found, except for Maria, all were killed with weapons that were not present.
- Therefore, Maria probably hid the suicide weapon of the last victim (or she killed said last victim), and later killed herself (or was tricked into doing so).

Definition of trap as stated by Beatrice:
Something invoked when a victim gets caught in it by their own actions.
that's not all! Things invoked by remote control or by a timer, ......everything like that is also included!

Ronove's addendum:
All devices that can succeed in murder without the direct participation of the person who set it up. I believe that definition may be appropriate.

I think Ronove's definition includes the situation mentioned by Squirrellord.

So it does, Jan-poo, so it does.
Well, then I don't know how Battler dies, but I still think the boiler goes off to clear the evidence :P

And about Natsuhi's headache... she got a real *splitting* one this time ;D
Didn't Krauss mention it though, when she was defending Kinzo's honor, that if she got too worked up it'd get bad again? She really didn't have a lot of screen time, which is probably why it wasn't mentioned.