Wednesday, May 29, 2013

Week 0 = 205 poundsWeek 1 = 200.5Week 2 = 199Week 3 = 197Week 4 = 196This number is a bit deceptive. Last week I took a bunch of stroller walks in the evening, spent all day Saturday working in the yard, and stayed on track with food . The result was that Sunday the scale showed 194.5. Monday (Memorial Day) was the first day in May that I went crazy, eating whatever I wanted. I probably had double the calories that I was used to eating (about 3500-4000 instead of 1800). Tuesday the scale showed 197. Now we're told that there are 3500 calories in a pound. So if I ate an excess of 1800 calories on Monday, you would expect me to gain half a pound. So I can assume that the 2.5 pound gain isn't really true fat. It's probably mostly water. Today I was down to 196, but I'm probably really at 195 and am optimistic that by next week I could be down to 193.5 or so.

All in all it was a pretty healthy week, just that one day that threw off the numbers.

Friday, May 24, 2013

I'll back up a little bit. The Avs now with Joe Sakic in charge of personnel and the #1 pick this summer (destined to be a defenseman named Seth Jones) needed a new coach. After seeing Stastny and other Avs come to life in the worlds, it became even more obvious that our players aren't that bad.

Possible candidates included Patrick Roy, Lindy Ruff, Dallas Eakins, and Guy Boucher. Many thought that this young team needed a coach with lots of NHL experience. And Roy doesn't have any. He's been coaching in the minors for 8 years and had success, but this is his first NHL gig.

I think this was the call you had to make. Because I think Roy could be hockey's version of Jim Harbaugh.

I think the other coaching candidates were solid. But Roy is that X-factor. He may need some time. But I think that he has the highest upside. He could galvanize this team into something special in a few years. And most importantly, if your goalie becomes lights out, you can beat anyone. And I figure who can coach Varlamov or other goalies better than Roy?

Wednesday, May 22, 2013

Week 0 = 205 poundsWeek 1 = 200.5Week 2 = 199Week 3 = 197I was all excited on Monday when I saw 196.5 and thought this week was going to be more like week 1 than week 2. And then Tuesday it was 197.5. Today I got 197. I'll take it.

Bengals
at home vs Steelers: Bengals by 1
on road vs Steelers: Steelers by 2.5

at home vs Browns: Bengals by 6
on road vs Browns: Bengals by 3

Bengals average HFA = 1.625 points

Texans
at home vs Colts: Texans by 4.5
on road vs Colts: pick'em

at home vs Jags: Texans by 10
on road vs Jags: Texans 4.5

Texans average HFA: 2.5 points

Titans

at home vs Colts: Colts by 1
on road vs Colts: Colts by 4.5

at home vs Jags: Titans by 3.5
on road vs Jags: pick'em

Titans average HFA: 1.75 points

Okay, so far it seems like the fabled HFA is worth 3-3.5 really means relative to an away game. Let's take a look at teams that might have a perceived higher HFA.

Broncos
at home vs Chiefs: Broncos by 7.5
on road vs Chiefs: Broncos by 4

at home vs Chargers: Broncos by 6.5
on road vs Chargers: Broncos by 3

Broncos average HFA: 1.75 points

Packers
at home vs Lions: Packers by 4.5
on road vs Lions: Packers by 1.5

at home vs Vikings: Packers by 4.5
on road vs Vikings: Packers by 1

Packers average HFA = 1.625 points

Seahawks

at home vs Cardinals: Seahawks by 8.5
on road vs Cardinals: Seahawks by 6

at home vs 49ers: Seahawks by 2.5
on road vs 49ers: 49ers by 2.5

Seahawks average HFA = 1.825 points

Chiefs
Broncos = 3.5 point swing
Raiders = 4.5 point swing

Chiefs average HFA = 2

btw, Lions average HFA = 1.75

Conclusion

For these 9 teams, the average HFA in the NFL is 1.87. Double that and you'll get 3.74 which is near the 3.5 points that is thrown around.

But I think it's important to use the number relative to a neutral field, because you can't say that (versus the Raiders for example) that the Chiefs home field advantage is 4.5 points. Because then you're ignoring that the Raiders would have a similar home field advantage.

A quick google search turned up this quote: "So if the odds-makers believe that 2 teams are evenly matched, the home team will almost always be a 3 point favorite."

I think that sums up conventional wisdom. But that would be a six-point swing, and in the 36 matchups I looked at, there weren't any that high.

Does this really help? I think so.

Let's take a look at week 3: Chiefs at Eagles. Eagles are favored by 3. The Eagles don't play at KC this year. But based on my numbers it seems that, contrary to conventional wisdom, Vegas thinks the Eagles are a bit better than the Chiefs. I would expect a line in KC to be around Chiefs by 1, and a line at a neutral field to be around Eagles by 1.