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3 Climate Change & Variability Barrow has a history manifest in major extreme events 4 to 6 October October 1963 – the most damaging Fewer big storms mid-1960s to mid-1980s 12 & 20 September February August & 8 October July 2003

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4 3 October 1963 Photo by Grace Redding

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5 3 October 1963 Photo by Grace Redding

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6 Barrow Is Significant Much experience exists there to build upon –Including extreme events & policy responses Harvesting that experience is important for –Continuing improvements in policy responses in Barrow –Informing responses in other Alaska Native villages –Reconsidering climate science & policy generally Context matters because Barrow is unique –Every other local community worldwide is also unique –Also, some trends in Barrow differ from Arctic trends

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7 Our Integrated Assessment Designed to expand range of informed choices for people in Barrow Focused on erosion & flooding problems Approach is intensive –Centered on Barrow –Comprehensive in range of factors studied –Integrative in focus on extreme events

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20 Compound uncertainties in each factor In summary, coastal flooding & erosion in Barrow are the confluence of… o Low surface atmospheric pressure o Long fetch (or open water) to the west o High westerly winds of long duration Such big storms expose and help thaw permafrost, increasing erosion Development exposes more things of value to the community Interactions among Factors

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23 Proposed Networking Strategy Alaska Native villages meet to compare experience re coastal erosion & flooding Maximize experience available for adaptation decisions in each village Help clarify their common interest in adapting state & federal programs Builds on hearings in Anchorage June 2004 and GAO December 2003

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24 Self-Empowerment Problem of Governance: Agency Programs “…we have found that none of the agencies have programs that cover the full range of our needs…. To be blunt, no agency’s programs are designed for a project as complex as a full village relocation. Each agency has its realm of responsibility, and often there is a gap program to program.” Luci Eningowuk, Shishmaref Erosion and Relocation Coalition (June 2004) Possible Solution Native villages take the lead in advising their elected representatives on adapting, supplementing, and integrating agency programs to meet village needs.

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26 Conclusions on Communication Depend on sustained interactions with the community & its leaders Depend on research focused on their local experience & concerns; substance matters Big storms (or extreme events) provide a common focus of attention Interim results of value to the community help sustain interactions So does each new storm: Nature is an ally motivating adaptations