Texas Drought: Has It Really Improved?

Drought-stricken Texas seems to be improving, at least according to the animation above. But is this telling the whole story?

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"From an agricultural perspective, drought conditions have gotten considerably better over the past few months, especially with rain in the Panhandle, west-central Texas, and the lower Rio Grande Valley," says John Nielsen-Gammon, Texas State Climatologist and professor of atmospheric sciences at Texas A&M University.

Put another way, parts of the state have received rainfall over the summer that has helped replenish soil moisture.

The driest year on record in Texas – 2011 – resulted in the most intense one-year drought on record in the state.

While not nearly as dry as 2011, both 2012 and 2013 have continued to be drier than average. Several cities are running over 10 inch precipitation deficits since the start of 2012, including:

Corpus Christi: -19.51 inches

Houston (IAH): -19.25 inches

Wichita Falls: -14.50 inches

Lubbock: -13.08 inches

Amarillo: -11.36 inches

Dallas-Ft. Worth: -10.18 inches

As to where this drought ranks in Texas history, Nielsen-Gammon says this is now the second-worst drought on record (since 1895), considering both intensity and longevity. Only the 1950-1957 drought ranks worse in Texas history, according to Nielsen-Gammon.

Of course, it's not solely an issue of a precipitation deficit, but also evaporation from lakes and rivers.

"Until the rain event on Sept. 19-20, Texas reservoirs were one or two days away from setting an all-time record for the gap between the amount of water stored and the storage capacity,” Nielsen-Gammon says in a Sep. 26 Texas A&M news story. “Our reservoirs were essentially storing 18 million acre-feet of water and 13 million acre-feet of air."

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While reservoirs in parts of east and north Texas were running much higher, others from south-central Texas to the Panhandle were in a more dire situation.

Lake Meredith (north of Amarillo): 0 percent full

O.H. Ivie Reservoir (east of San Angelo): 15.9 percent full

Lake Travis (west-northwest of Austin): 30.6 percent full

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How much rain is needed to return water levels to anything resembling a long-term average?

First, you need enough rain to first saturate the soil to allow significant runoff into lakes and reservoirs, in addition to what falls into the body of water directly.