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Norway’s wrong numbers fuel war on whaling

By Alison Motluk

NORWAY faces strong condemnation from the International Whaling Commission again this year, as its whalers continue their commercial hunt in the face of a world moratorium and in the absence of any reliable way of determining “safe” catch quotas.

In 1989, Norway estimated that there were 86 700 minke whales in the northeast Atlantic. This number was accepted by the IWC as the “best available” figure in 1992 and Norway used it to set itself a yearly catch quota. The estimate is now acknowledged, even by the Norwegians, to be wrong. But despite the doubts, scientists meeting in Dublin ahead of next week’s IWC annual conference say they are unlikely to produce any more accurate figures before Norway finishes this year’s hunt.

In a confidential paper leaked early last month, researchers at the Norwegian Computing Centre and the University of Oslo revealed that three errors in computer software had made the original population estimate of 86 700 too high. A few weeks later – and just three days before the whaling fleet set sail – the Norwegian government announced a revised estimate of 69 600. This lowered the estimated “allowable catch” from 301 animals a year to 232. Although most members of the scientific committee which advises the IWC believe that these numbers are still too high, they have been unable to agree how to recalculate the figures.

Norway will itself update its population estimates in July with a “sighting survey”, an approved method of extrapolating whale populations from the number spotted from ships. This will provide fresh data for a new round of complex calculations.

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One item the IWC scientific committee has agreed on is a protocol for carrying out and analysing the results of such sighting surveys. According to the guidelines it is establishing, international observers will monitor the survey and the data will be submitted to the committee for analysis.

Although Norway faces censure for continuing to whale, it is legally free to continue doing so. Norway lodged an objection when the moratorium was adopted and so is exempt from the ban. It claims to have followed the IWC-approved “revised management procedure” in setting its quota. The procedure is an extremely complicated method for assigning theoretical safe catch quotas based on population estimates.

Japan is the only other country still whaling. Unlike Norway, which admits its hunt is commercial, Japan maintains that it is hunting whales for “scientific research”. Japan’s continued “scientific” hunt has been one of this year’s great disappointments. After the Southern Ocean was declared a sanctuary at last year’s IWC meeting, the Japanese foreign ministry said Japan would kill no more whales for science. But it went on to catch more than 300 minke whales in 1994-95.

This year, far from renouncing its hunt, Japan has proposed increasing its catch of minke whales by 30 per cent. Under the whaling convention, governments are free to set their own scientific catch quotas – even in a sanctuary – so Japan can be expected to kill up to 440 minke whales next season.

The IWC’s scientific committee meets for two weeks each year. Its findings are passed on to a technical committee, a 100-strong group of lawyers and technical experts. Among the issues these committees were asked to look into this year were the possible dangers of whale watching, the effects of chemical pollution on whales, how the IWC might protect dolphins, porpoises and other small cetaceans, and whether subsistence whaling by indigenous peoples should be subject to scientific management. Recommendations will be presented to the commission when it meets in Dublin next week.