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By 2014, when Black Friday sales will start on Tuesday and Christmas carols will begin blaring in October, America's millionaires might become so wiped out by President Obama's scheme to tax the rich they'll be trawling the aisles at Wal-Mart.

Are America's wealthiest quaking in their Berluti loafers? If Washington fails to fix our fiscal cliff, those in the top income quintile -- which the folks at the Brookings Institute, who clearly don't pay rent in New York, classify as anyone earning more than $108,000—could see after-tax income shrink by 7.7%. That's a bigger hit than, say, 4.4% for the middle quintile.

Even so, the threats are just as daunting for lower-end consumer stocks. For a start, "the farther down the income scale, the less savings are available to absorb the tax shock," notes Barry Knapp, Barclays Capital's U.S. equity strategist. Expiring payroll tax cuts also have the least impact on top earners, since the maximum earnings taxable for Social Security in 2013 will be $113,700.

Now that stocks are bouncing back from oversold levels, the next few weeks could be choppy, and government belt-tightening likely will produce some fiscal drag next year. But it helps that sentiment is so fearful, with markets recently pricing in long-term profit growth of -1%, well below the post-war average of 7.1%, notes Nomura strategist Joseph Mezrich. Out in the real world, life goes on, and my mother-in-law expects a real gift under her Fraser fir, fiscal cliff or no. Credit Suisse sees retail sales growing 6.2% this holiday—below the 7.5% pace in 2010, but hardly shabby.

During this bull market, price-earnings ratios of Nordstrom,
Macy'sM -0.3894418000865426%Macy's Inc.U.S.: NYSEUSD69.06
-0.27-0.3894418000865426%
/Date(1438376411009-0500)/
Volume (Delayed 15m)
:
2735155AFTER HOURSUSD69
-0.06-0.08688097306689835%
Volume (Delayed 15m)
:
601599
P/E Ratio
16.326241134751772Market Cap
23232474031.5918
Dividend Yield
2.0851433536055604% Rev. per Employee
168113More quote details and news »MinYour ValueYour ChangeShort position
(M), and Tiffany have remained essentially flat as stock prices rose in step with profits. Meanwhile, Family Dollar has seen its multiple swell from 12 to 16.2 times projected profits in the past three years, a sign investors are paying more for each dollar it earns. Despite sporting the thinnest margins, discounters fetch 14.7 times projected profits, a premium to the stock market. In contrast, department and specialty stores slump below their historical median valuations and trade near 12 times earnings. If the gap between high- and low-end retailers keeps widening, you know where to shop.