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House Democrats move to hold Hawaii seat

1. Fearful that a divided Democratic party could allow Honolulu City Councilman Charles Djou (R) to emerge victorious in the May 22 all-party special election in Hawaii's 1st district, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has gone on television questioning the Republican's credibility on the jobs issue.

(Worth noting: Using the word "congressman" in their ad suggests the DCCC may be sending a signal of support for former representative Ed Case over state Sen. Colleen Hanabusa -- the two Democratic candidates running -- although no formal endorsement has yet been issued.)

The DCCC ad is a sign of the growing concern among party insiders that the seat, which went for President Obama with 70(!) percent in 2008, is in serious jeopardy. Djou has been on television for several weeks with ads touting himself as a non-partisan problem solver while Democrats continue to litigate the Case-Hanabusa feud.

A loss in either the Hawaii special or the special election to replace late Rep. John Murtha (D) in Pennsylvania on May 18 would almost certainly be painted as an omen of a difficult midterm election for Democrats.

Conversely, if House Republicans can't pull off a win in either race -- that would make seven straight competitive special elections won by Democrats -- it's hard for the GOP to make the case that momentum is building behind the party.

Neither contest has drawn much national attention just yet but both have the potential to have wide-ranging consequences. It's just 41 days until the Pennsylvania race and 45 days until Hawaii. Mark your calendars.

2. Illinois Rep. Mark Kirk (R) will report raising $2.2 million in the first three months of this year, a staggeringly strong total that comes as his opponent in the Senate race -- state Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias (D) -- continues to weather negative stories about his family's troubled bank.

To date, Kirk has collected $6.6 million for the race and closed March with just over $3 million in the bank. Giannoulias's fundraising numbers for the first quarter of the year were not available at press time but as of Jan. 13 he had collected $3.6 million for the race and retained $963,000.

Both men won primary races on Feb. 2 although Giannoulias's was the more serious contest as he bested former Chicago inspector general David Hoffman
39 percent to 34 percent.

Kirk's outstanding fundraising and Giannoulias's struggles have made this a prime pickup opportunity for Republicans despite the fact that Illinois is not only one of the most Democratic states in the country but also President Obama's political backyard.

3. The Republican field preparing to run against Sen. Russ Feingold (D) this fall is expected to grow in the near future as former Wisconsin commerce secretary Dick Leinenkugel will announce his candidacy, according to sources briefed on the matter. Leinenkugel, whose family founded the beer company that bears his last name, resigned his post in Gov. Jim Doyle's (D) Administration on Tuesday -- citing his desire to seek other opportunities.

Republican insiders expect Leinenkugel, who was appointed to his current post in September 2008, to enter the Senate race, joining developer Terrence Wall in the GOP primary. But, sources suggest that Leinenkugel's entry has no bearing on former governor Tommy Thompson's decision on whether to enter the contest.

Aides close to Thompson say he will make his decision prior to the state Republican convention in early May. No one seems to know which way Thompson is leaning although most informed speculation seems to suggest he will take a pass.

If Thompson runs, national Republicans will have succeeded in once again broadening the playing field of competitive contests -- just as they did with the recruitment of former senator Dan Coats in Indiana.

4. Former U.S. District Court judge Brian Sandoval (R) has launched the first television ads of his primary challenge to Nevada Gov. Jim Gibbons.

The ad, entitled "Together," is a basic biographic spot driving home Sandoval's credentials as a former state attorney general and federal judge. He speaks directly to the camera much of the commercial, telling viewers that "our best days are ahead of us" and adding: "It's time to roll up our sleeves and get Nevada working again."

The tagline of the ad -- "A reason to believe again" -- is a not-so-subtle repudiation of Gibbons whose first term has been badly marred by a series of ethics questions that have made him persona non grata with most of the state's voters.

"Given Dan Coats' affection for all things North Carolina, we suspect he was celebrating last night's victory over Butler," said DSCC communications director Eric Schultz. "With his heart and his home in North Carolina, we hope he's able to watch all of Duke's games next season in person."

Sometimes I have misgivings about leaving the USA. To move to an extremely foreign country with a hot climate, a difficult language, a stressful move, a difficult adaptation to a very different culture, the risk of failure .. once in a while it leaves me in a panic.

Then I think of the changes in the USA since 1980, the racist and xenophobic hate that gets worse every year, the raw rage and sickness coming out of the right-wing fever swamps, the sickness and wrongness and pure ugliness I read here in these pages .. even the unmoored amorality coming from our sycophantic "gracious host" ... and the real fear isn't in moving to Việt Nam, but in remaining here after the hate rhetoric turns to the assassination and domestic terrorism that we all know is coming.

The right wing posters here are mental cases, sure, but they're smack in the middle of right wing politics here. In other words, close to half of my fellow countrymen are stark raving f ucking nuts. I don't feel safe turning my back on them. Throwing bricks through windows and sending assassination threats to public figures is but one step away from throwing bricks AT public figures and bombs going off in crowds ... to protest healthcare reform?!?

"Of New Jersey, SISSD writes ...we are tired of being the laughing stock of the country... Good luck with that fella, we're still laughing at you. Ending corruption by switching parties, you are funny. Oh yeah and Republicans will stop illegal migration too, hahhahaahahaha, stop it, I can't breathe. Posted by: shrink2"

Better get oxygen by the tanker load, because when NJ has to RAISE taxes to avoid having a deficit, it will have to be the un-Corzine who has to sign the bill, and that bit of justice will be one of the great laugh lines of all times.

Chris
St Norbert's College in Wisconsin was the training camp site for Vince Lombardi's Green Bay Packers.
It is a fine liberal arts school of long standing and not far from Green Bay. I have 2 very good friends who are alums.

It is not numbers or fundamentals that will affect the stock market. It is group psychology. At a certain point, usually a convenient round number, the masses of amatuer traders will say take profits and lock in before all the other doofuses beat me to it. It is a feature of complex systems. It is called a cascading failure. The domino effect.

I tightened up all my bottoms today to be sure not to get fooled again.

The democrats CONTINUE to put out the talking points that the aging Tea Party Movement is on the verge of violence

WHAT ARE THEY AFRAID OF ?

Why don't you look to the inner cities - and see where the shootings are.

We have listed three shootings in the past week.

1) Chicago - had a triple shooting on Friday - three separate incidents within blocks of each other - one was actually during the police press conference for the first shooting.

2) New York - 50 blacks were arresting "wilding" near Times Square in mid-town - there were 4 shootings associated with what the papers called a "riot"

3) Washington - just blocks away from where the democrats are issuing their press release trying desperately to convince people that the tea partiers might be violent - 3 blacks were involved in a drive-by shooting in which 9 people were shoot, with 4 dead.

The stock market is out over its skis and it has been for some time. It has to pull back or it will be uglier when it does. On the other hand, it is April and lots and lots of money has been bet and lost by people who have been agreeing with the first sentence since this extraordinary rally began.

But today, just to play with Fix karma, I am going to put some $28g of my NASDAQ money into cash.

12BB, I asked you a related question yesterday. Using the [apparently antiquated] metric of price-to-earnings ratios I learned in the early 60s, I worry that anything over 11000 would indicate re-bubbling, not health. What do you think, and do you completely disregard P/E now?

I am a technical trader, which means I follow charts using various indicators. Fundamental investors tend to use P/E's as well as other indicators.

I'm assuming we will see a correction here at 11000, because this was a level at which a significant amount of trading took place in the past. The premise behind that is that more investors have a vested interest in 11000. For example, people who bought here, and subsequently had losses, will tend to put in a sell order ("if the market ever gets back to where I bought this dog, I'm going to sell it").

I'm not commenting on P/E's except to say that P/E's can get way too high or way too low and stay there for a significant amount of time. It's a good way to gauge when the market is cheap or expensive, but not a particularly good way to time the market.

BTW, your comment about re-bubbling is probably right on. But, we have had bubbles now for years and I don't think they will go away. There is too much money chasing too few stocks and that is always inflationary. I think that is just the nature of the stock market, and one needs to find a way to navigate through the minefield.

The extent of sea ice over the Arctic Ocean grew until the last day of March, the latest the annual melting season has begun in 31 years of satellite records, the U.S. National Snow and Ice Data Center said. Cold weather and winds from the north over the Bering Sea and Barents Sea meant that the area of ocean covered by ice expanded through last month, the Boulder, Colorado-based center said today in a statement on its Web site. That’s two days later than in 1999, the previous latest start to a melting season since satellite monitoring began in 1979.

Zouk wrote: the leftist kooks are in a funk because the Tea parties are made up by 17% Democrats and 35% Independents.
----------------------------------
I used to live in Utah. People there are fond of saying that only 50% of the ppl in Salt Lake City are LDS. But everyone knows that the other 50% used to be LDS.

I don't know how the surveys came up with 17% democrats and 35% Independents, but we all know (including you) that they used to be Republicans.

12BB, I asked you a related question yesterday. Using the [apparently antiquated] metric of price-to-earnings ratios I learned in the early 60s, I worry that anything over 11000 would indicate re-bubbling, not health. What do you think, and do you completely disregard P/E now?

On the contrary dribbl. I have a conference at the Military Academy coming up. I look forward to helping with your employment by throwing my peanuts recklessly on the floor at the '7 in dog years' show.

"dribbl is a mindless idiot in the pattern of old school 60s war hating tye died smelly hippies who never got a job or worked for a living. her sole meaning in life is posting tired old clippings from kook sites around the web. how empty of a head is that? Ask Olbie. they are peas in a pod."

LOL. glad i don't spend my days obssessing and stalking people I'll never meet.

When you got nothing to attack the message wiht, attack the messenger. and here's more of the little prince's projection:

"who never got a job or worked for a living."

projection
.
Psychology.
a.
the tendency to ascribe to another person feelings, thoughts, or attitudes present in oneself, or to regard external reality as embodying such feelings, thoughts, etc., in some way.

the leftist kooks are in a funk because the Tea parties are made up by 17% Democrats and 35% Independents. these were the people who elected the Fraud we have now. His support has vanished as his real agenda emerged. More people identify with the tea party than the Present ident now. but there is still 8% that admires Peloony. you could almost name them all - dribbl, Ped, Margerat, Baghdad BJ, DDAWD, same few who still watch Olbie rant and rave like they do.

what are they supposed to do? Debate the facts? lead with their ideas? OK stop laughing. Really now.

all the Libs can do is demonize anyone who objects to the socialist takover of america as racist or violent or crazy or extreme. this avoids ever having to discuss anything like policies or costs or taxes or results or anything that actually means something.

If you demand measures. they simply rename them - jobs saved, taxes are fees, etc.

If you demand accountability, they place it on Bush, unless it's something good in which case they bear sole responsibility.

dribbl is a mindless idiot in the pattern of old school 60s war hating tye died smelly hippies who never got a job or worked for a living. her sole meaning in life is posting tired old clippings from kook sites around the web. how empty of a head is that? Ask Olbie. they are peas in a pod.

The extent of sea ice over the Arctic Ocean grew until the last day of March, the latest the annual melting season has begun in 31 years of satellite records, the U.S. National Snow and Ice Data Center said. Cold weather and winds from the north over the Bering Sea and Barents Sea meant that the area of ocean covered by ice expanded through last month, the Boulder, Colorado-based center said today in a statement on its Web site. That’s two days later than in 1999, the previous latest start to a melting season since satellite monitoring began in 1979.

Overton described a method for moving that window, thereby including previously excluded ideas, while excluding previously acceptable ideas. The technique relies on people promoting ideas even less acceptable than the previous "outer fringe" ideas.

That makes those old fringe ideas look less extreme, and thereby acceptable. The idea is that priming the public with fringe ideas intended to be and remain unacceptable, will make the real target ideas seem more acceptable by comparison.

The degrees of acceptance of public ideas can be described roughly as:

* Unthinkable
* Radical
* Acceptable
* Sensible
* Popular
* Policy

The Overton Window is a means of visualizing which ideas define that range of acceptance by where they fall in it, and adding new ideas that can push the old ideas towards acceptance merely by making the limits more extreme.'

You have seen how the unthinkable, like flying a plane into a building, has become 'acceptable' to Republican politicians, and 'popular' among the tea party mentality.

You will see them pushing it further and further, as with Gingrich comparing federal employeees to Gestapo. Imagine what's going to happen to the census takers.

This was how it became widely acceptable to kill Jews in Germany [I am not comparing anyone to hitler, that's just a recent example of a very old practice] -- i am just saying that this is the technique -- commmon among authoritarian movements [and the Tea Part is one, because it uses violence and threats as leverage] to move the needle over time to make the previously unthinkable the norm.

Added to the Gingrich prediction of the 16,000 member IRS Gestapo, now, scam artists are going door to door, claiming there's a limited open-enrollment period to buy health insurance now and have also set up toll-free lines to defraud consumers.

Why don't you look to the inner cities - and see where the shootings are.

We have listed three shootings in the past week.

1) Chicago - had a triple shooting on Friday - three separate incidents within blocks of each other - one was actually during the police press conference for the first shooting.

2) New York - 50 blacks were arresting "wilding" near Times Square in mid-town - there were 4 shootings associated with what the papers called a "riot"

3) Washington - just blocks away from where the democrats are issuing their press release trying desperately to convince people that the tea partiers might be violent - 3 blacks were involved in a drive-by shooting in which 9 people were shoot, with 4 dead.

if the dems knew how to create jobs, we would all have one...
but like their unemployment figures, most good news is being made up by the obamas...
dems don't have a clue, give the other side a chance to provide results...
if you don't like them try, all you will get is more taxes...

here's a good example of the extremism, the monstrous irresponsibility of R rhetoric:

'Nevertheless, Gingrich is pressing on, hyping his own false claim with hyperbolic rhetoric and Nazi Germany comparisons. In a segment on PJ TV today, Gingrich claimed that Democrats are hiring “16,000 IRS agents” as a “a health Gestapo” — like that of the Nazi secret police. He continued, with pictures of federal agents with guns and sledgehammers splashed across the screen, by predicting that “every Republican candidate” should campaign on a promise of defunding these “government policemen”

You think telling gullible, simple-minded people that the Gestapo is coming to get them might scare them a litte, might make them think about doing something to 'protect themselves'? Like trying to kill Obama or a congressperson, or a local cop?

Charles Alan Wilson is a d0uchebag. He was arrested yesterday after leaving obscene and violent messages and death threats at the offices of Dingbat Senator Patty Murray's office. He didn't like her support for ObamaCare. According to polls, there's about 180 million of us that don't like ObamaCare... but one a-hoe has to go and do something stupid about it.

ObamaCare needs to be killed. Death threats against senators... even socialist dingbats like Patty Murray... are not helpful. Charles Alan Wilson, enjoy your lock-up. The only person you are a hero to are the violent, nasty, stupid people on the left (aka dribbl and the stooges), who can now use you to smear the vast majority of ObamaCare opponents who are peaceful and reasonable.

don't know if you're talking to me but do a chart going back from the 2007 peak to current day using stochastics, mcclellan summation index and the puts to call ratio. also look at the macd histogram. everything is pointing to a change in market sentiment just as it did with 2007 peak.

as i said before, correction could be minor and a positive thing that would eventually push market even higher than dow 11000. but from the technical charts i see, a major correction is coming with a retest of march 2009 lows.

The Overton Window has moved. Expressions of violence are shrugged off, leading to further pushing of the window.

We have seen a disturbing trend in the last few months of violence based on political views. The man who flew his plane into the IRS, the assassination of Dr. Tiller for performing legal reproductive services, the killing of police officers for the supposed plan by the Obama administration to seize the guns of private citizens, the brick throwing at Democratic political offices and the cutting of gas lines at the family home of the brother of a U.S Representative whose address was posted on the internet by mistake.

Then there are the credible threats; just yesterday a man was arrested for making credible threats against the life of Sen. Patty Murray (D-WA) and a man was arrested for threatening to use deadly force to prevent the operation of an abortion clinic. Pictures of nooses have been faxed to African American Representatives, and many other have had anonymous calls to their homes and offices.

While the level of violence and threats of violence is very troubling, what is more troubling is the ho-hum attitude about it and the way that Repulican politicians are tacitly encouraging it.

In chiding the left-wing blogs for not doing a good job selling socialism, Chrissy Matthews inadvertently admits what we right-wingnuts have been hammered by the left for saying for the last two years.

The reason left-wing blogs are failing to sell Americans on socialism is two-fold. Partly, it's because you don't win over opponents by calling them knuckle-dragging, tea-bagging racists. But mostly it is because socialism itself is indefensible. There is still a plurality in the population who can figure out that you can't build a sustainable economic system based on confiscating ever larger amounts of wealth from wealth producers and giving it away to wealth consumers. Most Americans are smart enough to realize there's no such thing as Santa Claus, even if the progressives aren't.

Republicans continue to dream of domestic and international disaster. If only America went off a cliff, Armageddon, civil war, nothing would be too bad a comeuppance for a country that elected Obama, right? Right. Sorry Republicans, you Bush/Cheney voters did do your best to destroy us, but we'll be ok.

Posted by: shrink2 | April 7, 2010 12:20 PM
---------------------------------
What you wrote is very insightful. I post very occasionally on RCP, and have noticed that anyone who points out that the stock market has had a record-breaking rally and that economic indicators are pointing up, not down, is met with a fury that is spectacular.

Even if one believes in Armageddon, one could reasonably argue that the timing may be further into the future than the next six months.

I've been called all sorts of names, including stupid and naive. Well, I've been making money going long and anyone who shorted the market as it went up has been wiped out.

It's interesting to think that Armageddon is the Republican fantasy to get even for electing Obama. I never thought of it that way.

Another sign of our equity markets defying gravity (which of course, can not be done) is its continued rise alongside interest rates. As a marker, 30yr fixed mortgages average 5.3 now, they were at or below 5 for many months.

12bar, I am sitting on the button fully prepared to lock in my profits.

The exuberance over Repubs taking back the government in the fall will surely fade once or twice along the way as people realize that the bumbling empty suit still holds a veto pen on the voters' desires.

... how likely do you think a retest of the low lows? (I don't see that in my technicals, but I wouldn't be surprised to see the "pause that refreshes" here at 11000)

Posted by: 12BarBlues | April 7, 2010 11:57 AM

don't know if you're talking to me but do a chart going back from the 2007 peak to current day using stochastics, mcclellan summation index and the puts to call ratio. also look at the macd histogram. everything is pointing to a change in market sentiment just as it did with 2007 peak.

as i said before, correction could be minor and a positive thing that would eventually push market even higher than dow 11000. but from the technical charts i see, a major correction is coming with a retest of march 2009 lows.

Republicans continue to dream of domestic and international disaster. If only America went off a cliff, Armageddon, civil war, nothing would be too bad a comeuppance for a country that elected Obama, right? Right. Sorry Republicans, you Bush/Cheney voters did do your best to destroy us, but we'll be ok.

As we continue to find out what is contained in ObamaCare (now that it’s been enacted), it is worth noting a last-minute change in nomenclature, made just before the House vote — a disingenuous revision that exemplifies the bill’s legislative process.

The name of the new 3.8 percent “Medicare Tax” on investment income (imposed on people in the upper two tax brackets) was changed the day before the House vote. Its official name in the law signed by President Obama last week is not the “Medicare Tax” (the name in the text released 72 hours before the vote) but rather the “Medicare Contribution.”

The word that should have been changed was not “Tax” but “Medicare.” As discussed here and here, the “High Income Medicare Contribution” has nothing to do with Medicare: it is unrelated to the Medicare benefits of those who will pay the “contribution”; it will not fund the Medicare benefits of others (since the revenue will not go to the Medicare Trust Fund but toward a new entitlement); it is part of legislation that substantially reduces Medicare by cutting Medicare Advantage; and the “contribution” is in a new Internal Revenue Code section whose operative language refers to it as a “tax.” Only the name of the tax was changed — to eliminate the word “Tax.”

By Howie Carr Barack Obama used to live in Somerville - I wonder if he ever went to Fenway Park [map], or, as he might put it, Funway Park.

Once again, the president has tried to pass himself off as a regular guy, a Joe Sixpack who likes nothing better than to crack open a Bud and listen to a game from . . . Cuminski Park.

Cuminski . . . rhymes with Alinsky. As in “Saul Alinsky.”

Yes, that’s right, the president talked about “Cuminski” Park again Monday at the Washington Nationals’ home opener, at which he threw out the first pitch in a semi-girly-man lefty toss.

Then he went up into the broadcast booth and pretended to be a baseball fan - a manly man.

Of course, no one expects Barack Obama to really know anything. We understand, all too well, exactly how he got through Columbia and Harvard Law. He had certain . . . intangibles, shall we say.

But now he pretends to be a rabid White Sox fan. Which led the announcer to a natural follow-up question: “Who was one of your favorite White Sox players growing up?”

All dialogue guaranteed verbatim:

“You know uh I I thought that uh you know the truth is that, a lot of the Cubs I like too uh but uh I did not become a Sox fan until I moved to Chicago . . .”

I’ve never been a White Sox fan. But I can name plenty of Pale Hose, starting with Nellie Fox and Early Wynn. Minnie Minoso.

We know Obama knows nothing about history, or sports, or anything, basically. But how about movies? “Field of Dreams”? “Eight Men Out”? Ever hear of Shoeless Joe Jackson - I’ll give you a hint, Mr. President. He was a typical white person.

“-because I uh you know I was uh growing up in Hawaii so so I ended up uh an Oakland A’s fan.”

“But when I moved to Chicago I was livin’ close to what was then Cuminski Park and went to a couple games and just fell in love and the nice thing about the Sox is it’s real blue-collar baseball.”

Whatever that is. As bad as John Kerry was, with “Manny Ortez” and his belief that baseball is a lot like tennis - “Detroit 2, Red Sox [team stats] 5,” as he would say - at least he could name some players.

But this incident Monday reminds me of one of those old World War II POW movies, where Bill Holden and the boys in Stalag 17 catch the Nazi spy by asking him how many home runs Babe Ruth hit in 1927.

I’m sure, though, that Barack does know some baseball. Anybody know who batted clean-up for the Nairobi Al Qaedas in 1973?

The kindest word for all of this is fiasco. American troops are risking their lives to implement a counterinsurgency strategy that requires winning popular support in Afghanistan, and the main message from America's Commander in Chief to the Afghan people is that their government can't be trusted. That ought to make it easier to win hearts and minds

You go to war with the allies you have, and it's contrary to any diplomatic principle to believe that continuing public humiliation will make Mr. Karzai more likely to cooperate. On the evidence of the last week, such treatment has only given the Afghan leader more incentive to make a show of his political independence from the Americans.

All the more so given that Mr. Karzai has already heard Mr. Obama promise that U.S. troops will begin leaving Afghanistan as early as July 2011. This shouting spectacle will also embolden the Taliban, who after being run out of Marjah have every reason to tell the citizens of Kandahar that even the Americans don't like the Afghan government and are short-timers in any case.
Coming on the heels of the U.S. public chastisement of Israel's government, the larger concern over the Karzai episode is what it reveals about Mr. Obama's diplomatic frame of mind. With adversaries, he is willing to show inordinate patience, to the point of muffling his objections when opposition blood ran in the streets of Tehran. With allies, on the other hand, the President is unforgiving and insists they follow his lead or face his public wrath. The result will be that our foes fear us less, and that we have fewer friends.

President Obama isn't faring too well at converting enemies to friends, but he does seem to have a talent for turning friends into enemies. The latest spectacle is the all-too-public and counterproductive war of words between the White House and our putative ally, Afghan President Hamid Karzai. The only winner so far in this spat is the Taliban.

The Obama Administration seems to have had it out for Mr. Karzai from the day it took office, amid multiple reports based on obvious U.S. leaks that Vice President Joe Biden or some other official had told the Afghan leader to shape up. The tension escalated after Mr. Karzai's tainted but ultimately recognized re-election victory last year, and it reached the name-calling stage late last month when President Obama met Mr. Karzai on a trip to Kabul and the White House let the world know that the American had lectured the Afghan about his governing obligations.

The democrats are getting ridiculous - their efforts to paint the Tea Party Movement as extremists is just so way off base it is silly.

First, by the survey Chris cited, 50 million people say they are a PART of the Tea Party Movement.

How many more people AGREE with the Tea Party Movement - but would not answer the survey question that they are a part of the Tea Party Movement.

Just because the democrats might be successful in their storyline a bit, that DOES NOT ADDRESS THE ISSUES.

Saying that the Tea Party Movement might have extremists - even if the democrats got people to agree with them on that point - that does not solve the problem - which is WIDESPREAD OPPOSITION TO OBAMA'S TAX POLICIES.

So what are the democrats accomplishing? Virtually nothing.

Obama's pushed back on the best gift he ever got: the Brown victory gave him the perfect opportunity to drop the health care plan and NOT raise everyone's taxes.

NOW Obama HAS RAISED THE TAXES - he has CONFIRMED WHAT PEOPLE WERE SAYING ABOUT HIM.

If Obama was the CENTRIST he claimed to be, this problem would not exist.

I just think the result is the OPPOSITION TO OBAMA HAS JUST BEEN SO HARDENED THAT THERE IS ALMOST NOTHING THAT CAN BE DONE.

Obama had a special problem when he was elected: he wasn't around very long, he didn't and doesn't now have a TRACK RECORD WHICH PEOPLE CAN RELY ON TO SAY, I KNOW OBAMA, I CAN TRUST HIM.

Bush, Jr. had a massive advantage - because he fell back on his father's track record - everyone expected him to be more like his father than he was.

Obama has no track record of POLICIES, of the public knowing who he is - to fall back on.

Instead, Obama is making his impression right now - and what the Republicans say about him - that is out there, but people may not have bought that until Obama confirmed it by actions.

Whether or not, doesn't matter. If I could ask you, where do you see the closest support level? I know this is difficult, but how likely do you think a retest of the low lows? (I don't see that in my technicals, but I wouldn't be surprised to see the "pause that refreshes" here at 11000)

As to #4, I don't know how much the RNC can congratulate themselves on landing candidates. Tommy Thompson would be a 69 year-old freshman Senator. Dan Coats would be a 67 year-old freshman (redux) Senator.

Thompson's dumbing-down of the Advisory panels at NIH is an indicator of just how much Thompson is willing to do to ingratiate himself to his party bosses. It was a disgraceful episode.

i wouln't be too sure about the dow getting much above 11000. there is a correction coming, maybe this week. correction could be either a minor one and stock market continues higher or it could be a major one with market heading way down to retest lows of last march. many technical indicators are at the same level as the market peak in 2007. not a good sign.

with jobs, the administration says they added jobs but the unemployment rate is still the same. something fishy there.

I think you are right about Coburn and now about Murdoch. They see that things are now starting to spiral out of control. Armed teabaggers are making credible threats against congresspeople... militias are planning murders of cops [and lone rightwing actors have already killed a lot of cops this year] -- and the rhetoric just keeps escalating.

It's only a short step from throwing a brick through a congressman's office to throwing the brick at him. This was how the rightwing violence binge during th Clinton era started, that ended with McVeigh. They know that's where we're headed and that they will bear responsibility for it.

To buttress Potok's observations of armageddon, over at RCP blog, the regulars are actually predicting the bankruptcy of the federal government and the breakup of the country into 50 individual countries, each with its own currency, armies, etc.

And they think this is going to happen like this year.

They say the stock market is going to zero, treasury bonds are going to zero, the currency is going to zero, and to take up your guns and get ready.

The only good thing is that the bloggers there never leave their keyboards so it's just talk. But they DO believe it.

"I have come to the conclusion that the federal authorities who created and maintain this directed energy microwave/laser attack system have made the technology a "plug in" -- so accessible to so many agents, operatives, law enforcement officers and/or contractors that it has become an uncontrollable, disabling, potentially lethal weapon of sociopaths and miscreants on both the federal and local levels.

"Only presidential leadership, I believe, can take down this torture matrix -- which, I believe that empirical evidence indicates, already may have targeted and adversely affected the President of the United States."

drindl wrote Part of the issue, Potok says, is not what politicians say — but what they leave unsaid.
--------------------------------------
Do you have a link to Potok's article?

I thought it was curious, and atypical, for Sen. Coburn (isn't that the guy?) to push back against Fox News and try to dampen the anger. Did you? I wonder what his motivation was--I'm sure it was purposeful.

"Part of the issue, Potok says, is not what politicians say — but what they leave unsaid.

"I think a lot of these ideas start on the radical right, but they are also being flogged endlessly by Republican officials," he says. "Even those who are sort of considered [to be] responsible Republicans have completely abstained from any kind of criticism of this talk. So even way back when, when Sarah Palin was talking about Obama setting up death panels and so on — what we heard was a deafening silence from the mainstream of the Republican Party."

A new poll from Harris interactive finds that 40 percent of American adults think that Obama is a socialist; 25 percent believe that Obama was not born in the United States and is therefore not eligible to be president; 20 percent say Obama is doing many of the things that Hitler did; 14 percent say Obama "may be the Antichrist."

"I hear a very scary situation developing," says Potok. "The idea that people really have swallowed these stories in such enormous numbers is something remarkable. I covered, as a reporter, the militia movement in the 1990s, which really produced an extraordinary amount of criminal violence. And even back then, you did not hear this kind of talk so broadly spread through this society."

"Last May, about 30 people gathered at a resort in Jekyll Island, Ga., for a series of discussions about "increasing national instability" and President Obama's "socialized" policies.

The island was chosen for symbolic reasons — the initial discussions about creating a Federal Reserve were held there in 1910 — and the attendees met to formulate a plan for bringing their own radical organizations together.

"One of the interesting things about the meeting is how nondenominational it was," says Mark Potok. "There were Holocaust deniers there. There were anti-Semites. There were also people who have none of those feelings, who are all about the idea that the federal income tax is unconstitutional — people from the old[er] militia movements and so on."

Potok is the director of publications and information for the Southern Poverty Law Center. The group's latest Intelligence Report, "Rage on the Right," documents the growth in the number of hate and extremist groups — and how their rhetoric is increasingly entering the mainstream."

"Even though it might wind up as a campaign donation, I'll have to crack a Leinie's tonight (red if I can find it around here). Nothing says Wisconsin like beer."

Worry not; Leinenkugel's is a wholly owned subsidiary of the SABMiller behemoth. There may be an ad in that.

If you want good 'sconnie beer, go for something from Sprecher, or New Glarus, or Rush River or, now I'm drawing a blank; the guys out of Black River Falls that do Knot Stock, 3 FT Deep and Fatty Boombalatty.

"Potok points to race as one of the reasons “anti-immigrant vigilante groups [have] soared by nearly 80 percent” in the past year. He also notes a “dramatic resurgence in the Patriot movement and its paramilitary wing” in the past year — jumping 244 percent in 2009. Potok says that these groups’ messages are increasingly moving into the mainstream media.

“I think it’s very clear that you see ideas coming out of all kinds of sectors of the radical right, from the anti-immigrant radical right, from the so-called Patriot groups, the militias and so on — and you see it spreading right across the landscape at some of these Tea Party events,” he says. “I think it’s worth saying that much of this is aided and abetted by ostensibly mainstream politicians and media members.”

A lot of the “patriot group” rhetoric is anti-semitic and neo-nazi. So, we have one group of Republican thinkers, the neo-cons, labeling anyone who doesn’t agree with Bibi Netanyahu “anti-semitic”, while another group, the teabaggers, is inspired by a militia movement that denies the Holocaust. Who says the Republican party isn’t a big tent?"

If he actually has any ethics, he will stop this as he must understand how dangerous it is to democracy and how much of a joke it makes out of the idea of 'journalism.'

"As ThinkProgress and others have documented, for over a year now, Fox News has promoted and celebrated the anti-Obama Tea Party movement. But at a forum for the public affairs TV series, The Kalb Report, last night, Rupert Murdoch, the CEO of Fox’s parent company, said that the network should not be “supporting” the movement:

The mogul was peppered with a host of questions related to his media empire’s political leanings, and in each case fought the perception that he’s made his fortune by catering to the conservative audience. Asked by an official at the progressive watchdog group, Media Matters, whether it was ethical for officials at Fox to promote the Tea Party movement (as has been documented on some occasion) he replied without hesitation.

“No. I don’t think we should be supporting the Tea Party or any other party. But I’d like to investigate what you are saying before condemning anyone.”

If Murdoch does “investigate” Fox’s support of the Tea Party, he will not only find that network has given the conservative protests blanket, celebratory coverage, but has even branded some of them as being “FNC Tax Day Tea Parties“:

n April 2009, Fox Business reporter Stuart Varney contradicted the network’s assertion that it is only covering the protests when he declared on air, “It’s now my great duty to promote the Tea Parties. Here we go!” Earlier this year, NBC News Political Director Chuck Todd explained the impact of Fox’s promotion on the Tea Party’s prominence. “When we did our own polling on this it’s clear that the Tea Party gets a big benefit because there’s one news organization that gives them a huge bump all the time,” said Todd. “I mean their favorable rating among Fox viewers is through the roof and the rest of the country sort of doesn’t know a lot about these folks.”

Cilizza forgot to mention that the libs will split the vote between the two candidates in hi. The rules say that the winner can be the person who rises above 50 percent. This is what happened to repubs in ny.

How embarrassing to lose a 70 percent blue seat by complete incompetence.

Good luck with that fella, we're still laughing at you. Ending corruption by switching parties, you are funny. Oh yeah and Republicans will stop illegal migration too, hahhahaahahaha, stop it, I can't breathe.

If Leinenkugel is running for the Senate in Wisconsin, Tommy Thompson is not. Leinenkugel would not challenge him, and must know Tommy's out. It'll be interesting to see how the Tea Party wing of the GOP likes Leinenkugel, who's been part of the cabinet of Dem Jim Doyle, handled the state's stimulus money, and champions Doyle's climate change bill -- all things that get them extremely riled up.

Leinenkugel is extremely popular in Wisconsin - it is considered the home-state favorite. People from around the country probably will not believe how high Leinenkugel's name recognition will be.

Feingold is going to have a problem.

Leinenkugel is also constantly promoting itself - with seasonal brews. This is going to take the younger vote.

Maybe this is why Thompson has not been jumping in - he was anticipating this one.

I have long felt Wisconsin would be in play this year - even though recently I have seen lists otherwise. Wisconsin is very closely split no matter what year it is - and Feingold is a far-left liberal - just thing not to be this year. Remember it is pronounced LI - NEN - KU - GEL.

here in new jersey the most corrupt state in the country we are showing the rest of the country that we are tired of the crooked democrats from top to bottom that they are going to be voted out of office,we are tired of being the laughing stock of the country.hell we got a petition going to get rid of our senator(robert menendez)because he loves to pass any bill that raises taxes,and his love for the illegal aliens in our country.

This could be significant, and could signal a further fracture between Republicans and the uber-right, who seem to want to bring down the RNC:

"It's not very subtle.

The uber-conservative National Republican Trust PAC is running ads that might just be trying to convince Republican National Committee boosters to put their money elsewhere. The group, which spent big in 2008, has a new slogan: "Got trust?"

We first noticed the ad above a story critical of the RNC posted on The Daily Caller. The PAC boasted it is made up of "Republicans you can trust: With your principles ... your time ... your investment."

We're trying to reach the Trust PAC's top official Scott Wheeler to ask about the new campaign and will update if we hear back.

The whole question from the beginning of the year has been: how is Obama going to get back the people he has lost ???

Instead of making progress in that direction, Obama has re-offended those people, and proved himself to be even more out of touch.

In essence - Obama has made his task MORE difficult - and now he has 3 LESS months to deal with it.

The elections are 7 months away - with two of those months summer months.

This latest episode of False Charges of Racism just may have put Obama in a area from which he can not recover - once you start hearing that they don't care about "these people" - and they are just going to target certain groups, there is a serious message problem.

The democrats are missing one thing which they maximized : Bush.

Once the tv's start to flash pictures of the democrats protesting Bush - and then they compare those pictures to the Tea Party Movement - anyone can see the Tea Party Movement is POLITE AND TAME next to the democrats' signs.

This destroys Obama's credibility even more - those pictures are already going around the internet.

Obama is one crisis away from being Jimmy Carter.

Right now Obama is the Second Hoover Administration.

Good Luck with Obama's largest tax increase in American history... during a recession.

'The Michigan Militia is hosting a family-oriented "Militia Field Day" on Saturday -- complete with shooting events -- with the hope that it will help distance them from the recently arrested members of the Hutaree Militia.

Last month, nine Hutaree members were arrested on several counts, including an alleged plot to attack police.

The Michigan Militia, from the same area, is hoping that their annual "Open Carry Family Picnic & Tea Party" will help distinguish them from the Hutaree, and "take the stigma out of the word 'militia.'"

This on the anniversary of the McVeigh bombing. I really can't get past the scheduling. Families and assault weapons -- isn't that exactly what the Hutaree were about? Nothing could go wrong here.

Here's a good example. Look no further than VA:
"
Yesterday, Virginia Gov. Bob McDonnell (R) issued a proclamation quietly declaring April 2010 Confederate History Month, saying it was important for Virginians to “understand the sacrifices of the Confederate leaders, soldiers and citizens during the period of the Civil War, and to recognize how our history has led to our present.”

Notably absent from McDonnell’s proclamation was any mention of slavery. Yesterday, McDonnell explained that it wasn’t “significant” enough to merit a mention."

the call center had been inundated by uninsured consumers who were hoping that the overhaul would translate into instant, affordable coverage. That widespread misconception may have originated in part from distorted rhetoric about the legislation

_____________________________________

Obama did have overheated rhetoric - if you want to call it that - more close to the truth is Obama's talking points had little to do with the actual legislation - and even people in Congressional offices do not know what is in the bill.

This CONTINUED after the bill was passed - the democrats started talking about "immediate benefits" - which really are not there.

What is IMMEDIATE is Obama's taxes - and the drag on the economy, the drag on hiring, and the drag on corporate earnings.

That is one reason why Obama's people decided to start calling everyone RACIST - this was a pre-emptive response to the public relations disaster.

A reasonable person has to ask - if what we have been told really isn't in the bill, what is ?

----------------

This is what you are going to have if the Courts do not strike this down.

Instead of the market driving prices and the industry, the federal government will set many prices and decide where the resources go - just like socialism.

The difference is that a multitude of interest groups - instead of competing in the market - will now be going to Washington with campaign contributions in order to GAIN ADVANTAGE IN THE REGULATORY PROCESS.

Good for lobbyists - good for Washington staffers - but the rest of the country is going to end up with one messed up system in which the corporations are more in control than now.

And the corporations, when they take advantage of you, they will have the government on their side - backed up by campaign contributions.

Good luck with that.

The only question which remains is how much damage this program will do to the economy before it is dismantled.

'but the GOP primary is so heavily influenced this year by the Tea-Party 'right-wing extremists that I think the racist trends will be harder to overcome, especially in places like the Southwest and southeast'

andy is righty.the tea party and the extremists that have taken over the R party have stirred up a hornet's nest of anti-black and anti-latino feeling, and that will definitely hurt those groups at the ballot box this year.

"...who can't tolerate any dissent from outright extremism."

it *is* true that the wingers can't tolerate our dissent from their outright extremism. first real thing this guy's ever said.

THE NEXUS BETWEEN POLITICAL SIDESHOWS AND COVERT, HIGH-TECH 'SOCIAL CLEANSING'

Politics has devolved into bread-and-circuses sideshows that deflect attention from a secret multi-agency program of ideological "social cleansing" -- what its victims say are government crimes against humanity.

Ddawd, it is a "weak" bias. Texican Rs beat Anglo Ds in GEs. If some Rs x-over it is not significant. I remember
that you were talking about what I would call a "strong" bias. When BHO was a candidate, we discussed "weak" biases that could be overcome and "strong" ones, that could not. Most people have weak biases of some sort, but some have strong biases, unmoved by facts. Lawyers tell jurors this all the time on voir dire and ask them if, in spite of their predispositions, they will consider only the facts in evidence. Most jurors actually try. We try to read the liars on voir dire and strike them. It is inexact, of course.

I ate at a N.O. style restaurant here last night and it was really quite good by any standards. Reminded me of when I was still trying cases and would do appellate work before the 5th C. in N.O. I could gain eight lbs. in the weekend before argument. Used the Tulane Law Library to do my last minute updating. USCA5 was on Royale, then moved for renovations a few blocks toward the river from St. Charles.

Oh boy. Another all day slander fest from defensive socialists who can't tolerate any dissent from outright extremism.

Rather than defend the loony and free spending policies of Dear Comrade Zero, the kooks and ignorant droolers on the fix prefer to attack the opposition with unmitigated lies and innaccurate nasty characterizations. If anyone has stoked racism, it is Dear Reader and his goons.

mark_in_austin writes
"In races where the candidates are essentially low profile, in TX a Spanish name loses in the R primary to an Anglo name."

In MN it certainly doesn't hurt to have a scandinavian name. Some have theorized that Bob Anderson's 10% in the Bachmann v Tinklenberg race was largely due to his name, not his positions (particularly since he had essentially no campaign). I've seen it alleged that Margaret Anderson-Kelliher hyphenated her name primarily for the Anderson affect.

Oh yeah, I remember seeing that from yesterday, Mark. The one I was talking about actually applied to general elections. As in, Republicans will actually switch over to vote Dem a lot more if they have a black candidate. Do you know if there is such a bias against Hispanics in the general elections in TX such that it induces crossing over?

Mark, I would argue that for some people in the Republican party the 'bias' you mention is very strong. Its a fact that there are racist voters out there on both sides of the aisle, and in the Republican party those racist voters will not vote for a non-white candidate under any circumstances. In most elections I would think that the bias can be easily overcome, but the GOP primary is so heavily influenced this year by the Tea-Party right-wing extremists that I think the racist trends will be harder to overcome, especially in places like the Southwest and southeast.

I thought I remember someone from Hawaii saying that the race isnt' nearly as close as everyone is making it out to be. The only poll I could find was from a few months ago, but Case was well ahead of both the Republican and the other Democrat. The DCCC knows what they are doing and I like them going on the offensive to keep this seat.

The Illinois Senate Race will not be that close. People in Chicago are used to their politicians having a lose definition of ethics and it really won't matter 7 months from now. Also I wouldn't worry about the fundraising, since Obama can send one email to his supporters in Chi town and make up a 3 million dollar gap. On top of that if Banks didnt' give felons loans how would Congressmen pay for their houses?

I think the future of the Democrats hopes in the Nevada Governor's race will be very tightly tied to Harry Reid's reelection campaign, which he got off to a good start the other day.

Russ Feingold will win Reelection, period. He is too good a politician and can raise money like gangbusters.

It will be interesting to see how Sandoval does in NV in the R Primary against an Anglo. My assumption is that R primary voters in NV are also overwhelmingly not Latino. If Sandoval spends heavily so that he is known beyond name recognition I assume he could overcome this [probably "weak"] bias, which I suspect is rampant among R voters in the west. It is also possible that Gibbons is so negative in his own party that the bias will be overcome.

Bottom line: if Gibbons, who is a relatively bad candidate, beats Sandoval, it reinforces the bias thesis. If he does not, it tends to show the bias is "weak" - and can be overcome by actual information. I do think the bias among TX Rs is "weak" - that is shown by the fact that latino Rs do win GEs against Anglos. They just have trouble in contested R primaries against Anglos.

Mitch Daniels actually did something like declare Butler the real winners of the tournament - whatever that means.

I'd have to think PA-12, which has been trending red over the past few Presidential elections and one of the few places to vote more for Kerry than Obama would be more important for Republicans to take than the one in Hawaii. If they lose the Hawaii one, it's simply what's to be expected from a heavily blue state. Obviously a win would be a big deal, but a loss doesn't really screw with the narrative.

PA-12 was essentially a tie between McCain and Obama (McCain barely won) To lose that one would suggest that the Republicans have peaked with Scott Brown. This could have ramifications in terms of fundraising. People will be less apt to donate if they don't think their donations will be of any use. And if the country is really so much more Republican than it was in 2008, PA-12 should be an easy pickup (special election caveats applying)