Newsline - May 4, 1999

Russian envoy for Yugoslavia Viktor Chernomyrdin handed
U.S. President Bill Clinton in Washington on 3 May a letter from
President Boris Yeltsin containing proposals for resolving the
Kosova crisis, Interfax reported. After meeting with Clinton,
Vice President Al Gore, Secretary of State Madeleine Albright,
and Deputy Secretary of State Strobe Talbott, Chernomyrdin
told AFP that the negotiations were "very complicated."
Clinton earlier expressed readiness to discuss the
composition of an international peace force. He said that "we
would be willing to have a bombing pause" but added that
"we would need acceptance of the basic principles and at
least the beginning of withdrawal of Serbian forces." An
unnamed senior U.S. official told AFP that "the Russians have
some further ideas which we will continue to discuss with
them," but he predicted that "I expect these discussions will
continue over some days and weeks." FS

ROBERTSON SAYS MILOSEVIC IGNORES CHERNOMYRDIN

British Defense Secretary George Robertson said in London
on 4 May that "while Mr. Chernomyrdin continues with his
diplomacy--and it's very commendable that he should
[continue] trying--there's nobody really listening to him in
Belgrade," Reuters reported. Robertson stressed that NATO
wants Russia, Ukraine, and other countries to be involved in a
peace-keeping force. The previous day in Paris, French
President Jacques Chirac said in an address to the nation
that he sees "no reason to change strategy." He added that
"Milosevic's political will remains the same. ...NATO must,
therefore, pursue its mission." Chernomyrdin is scheduled to
meet with UN Secretary General Kofi Annan on 4 May in New
York. FS

IS THE RUSSIAN ECONOMY STABILIZING?

Economics
Minister Andrei Shapovalyants told ITAR-TASS on 4 May that
according to the results of the first quarter of 1999, the
Russian economy is showing signs of stabilizing. The news
agency quoted him as saying that industrial production in
March was 1.4 percent higher than the previous year and
that there was flat movement in GDP, whereas a decline had
been expected. Earlier, the State Statistics Committee had
reported on 28 April that industrial output was down 2
percent in the first quarter, compared with the same period
last year, while agricultural output had slipped 5.4 percent
and the volume of retail trade 15.8 percent, Interfax
reported. Overall output in the five key branches of the
Russian economy shrank 3.7 percent. The committee also
reported that industrial production in March had declined,
rather than increased, by 1.4 percent. JAC

Russian Central Bank
Chairman Viktor Gerashchenko told reporters on 3 May that
although the agreement recently reached with the IMF has
given a green light to talks with the London and Paris Clubs,
the creditors are willing to defer payments for 1999 and
2000 but are refusing to talk about subsequent years.
Gerashchenko concluded, "This shows that they wish to keep
us on a short leash." JAC

...AS GKO PLAN FINALLY CONCLUDED

Gerashchenko
added that most foreign banks have finally agreed to the
government's plan for swapping the defaulted short-term
treasury bonds that they hold. The Finance Ministry
announced on 30 April that Russian investors exchanged 95.6
percent of the bonds they held for new government
securities, while foreign investors swapped 88.5 percent of
their bonds, Interfax reported. Under the government's
scheme, foreign investors are offered 10 percent in cash, 20
percent in special investment bonds, and 70 percent in new
ruble-denominated long-term government bonds for their old
bonds, Oleg Larichev, manager of Troika Dialog, told the
RFE/RL Russian Service's program "Delo i Dengi." Foreign
investors will have the right to buy shares in six "blue chip"
Russian companies: UES, Mosenergo, Irkutskenergo,
Rostelekom, LUKoil, and Norilsk Nickel, according to Larichev.
JAC

RUSSIA, GERMANY SIGN ANTI-CRIME AGREEMENT

Russian
Interior Minister Sergei Stepashin and his German counterpart,
Otto Schily, signed an anti-crime agreement in Moscow on 3
May. The accord provides for closer cooperation between
law enforcement bodies from the two countries, AFP
reported. Stepashin said that over the next three months,
Russian and German officials will jointly investigate "the
methods used by criminals to channel money out of Russia to
Germany and elsewhere, including operations through
offshore zones." Schily is scheduled to meet with Prime
Minister Yevgenii Primakov on 4 May to discuss other areas
of Russian-German cooperation, a government spokeswoman
told ITAR-TASS. Stepashin announced that Yeltsin plans to
visit Germany in June at the time of the scheduled G-8 summit
in Cologne. It will be his first visit abroad since February,
when the ailing president attended the funeral of Jordan's
King Hussein against his doctors' advice. FS

STEPASHIN CLARIFIES NEW DUTIES

In an interview with
NTV on 2 May, summarized by Interfax the following day,
Stepashin attributed his surprise appointment as first deputy
prime minister to the need to strengthen control over the
regions (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 28 April 1999). Central to
this process, he said, will be the Interior Ministry, which he
will continue to head. Stepashin also noted the need to
prevent "criminal elements" from coming to power in regional
elections. He expressed concern at violence in the Republic
of Karachaevo-Cherkessia, where a presidential runoff is
scheduled for 16 May (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 26 April 1999).
Stepashin said he has written to Chechen President Aslan
Maskhadov advocating the resumption of cooperation
between the Chechen and Russian Interior Ministries. An
agreement on cooperation was reached earlier this year but
torpedoed by the 5 March abduction in Grozny of senior
Interior Ministry official Gennadii Shpigun. Stepashin said talks
are under way with Shpigun's kidnappers, who have
demanded a ransom for his release. LF

IS LUKASHENKA READY TO BE NUMBER TWO?

Vladimir
Putin, Security Council secretary and Federal Security Service
head, told Russian Television on 2 May that in a Russian-
Belarusian state, Russia's president would lead while the
president of Belarus would serve as vice president. Putin
added that while the leaders of both countries want to unify,
they are reluctant to yield some of their state's sovereignty.
"Everything depends on the readiness of the unifying
countries to pass over to the new country and its institutions
a certain part of their sovereign rights and powers," he said.
After a recent meeting with Russian President Boris Yeltsin,
Belarusian President Alyaksandr Lukashenka admitted that he
has brought to Moscow an ambitious, radical plan for
unification between his country and Russia, but he now
"understands that Russia is not ready" yet (see "RFE/RL
Newsline," 29 April 1999). JAC

RECENTLY SACKED CABINET OFFICIAL TO RUN FOR
GOVERNOR

Vadim Gustov, who was dismissed from his post
as first deputy prime minister on 27 April, will run for
governor of Leningrad Oblast in elections scheduled for 19
September, "The St. Petersburg Times" reported on 30 April.
According to the daily, Gustov said "I said that I was ready to
resign in order to run for governor of Leningrad Oblast and
the prime minister agreed." Seven candidates have already
announced their intention to run, including acting Governor
Valerii Serdyukov, former St. Petersburg police chief Anatolii
Ponidelko, and Fedor Shkrudnev, former presidential envoy to
the oblast. Gustov's chances of victory are considered good
by local analysts. Leonid Kesselman, political analyst at the
Russian Academy of Sciences' Institute of Sociology, told the
daily that "Gustov is uncompromised in the eyes of the public
and most of the regional bureaucracy supports him." JAC

TOP DUMA OFFICIAL CHARGED WITH BRIBERY

The
Prosecutor-General's Office has charged Vladimir Trofimov,
chief of staff for the State Duma's Foreign Relations
Committee, with bribe-taking, Interfax reported on 30 April.
Trofimov was arrested by Federal Security Service officials
on suspicion of accepting a $5,000 bribe, "Segodnya"
reported on 24 April (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 26 April 1999).
JAC

SPRING BRINGS NEW PATIENTS FOR LOCAL HOSPITALS

Although the season for hunting wild mushrooms has only just
started in Stavropol Krai, eight cases of poisoning have
already been reported after ingestion of some local fungi,
ITAR-TASS reported on 4 May. Officials at the krai's Ministry
of Health blame the illnesses on violations of the unwritten
rule of any mushroom hunt: "If you don't know what it is, don't
put it in your basket." JAC

FORMER ARMENIAN INTERIOR MINISTER DETAINED

Vano
Siradeghian was taken into custody at Yerevan airport on 3
May on returning from a three-month stay abroad, RFE/RL's
Yerevan bureau reported. He had left Armenia on 29 January,
three days after parliamentary deputies rejected a demand
by Prosecutor-General Aghvan Hovsepian to strip him of his
parliamentary immunity so that he could be questioned over
allegations that while serving as interior minister from 1992-
1996 he ordered several murders. In a second vote on 17
February, deputies acceded to Hovsepian's request.
Siradeghian was re-elected chairman of the board of the
former majority Armenian Pan-National Movement (HHSh) at its
congress in early March (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 9 March
1999) and has been nominated by that party as a candidate
in the 30 May parliamentary elections. As such, he can be
arrested only with the consent of two-thirds of the 13
members of the Central Electoral Commission. LF

AZERBAIJAN'S PRESIDENT TELEPHONES WITH TURKISH
COUNTERPART

Heidar Aliev, who is recuperating from heart
bypass surgery in the U.S., held a brief telephone
conversation on 2 May with Suleyman Demirel, who wished him
a speedy recovery, Turan reported the following day. A
presidential press spokesman described Aliev's condition as
"good." LF

JAPANESE FOREIGN MINISTER VISITS AZERBAIJAN

Masahiko Komura held talks in Baku on 2-3 May with his
Azerbaijani counterpart Tofik Zulfugarov and with Prime
Minister Artur Rasizade, ITAR-TASS and Turan reported. The
Japanese side agreed to extend a 18.3 billion yen (some
$160 million) loan toward the ongoing modernization of a key
hydroelectric power station on the Apsheron Peninsula and 1
billion yen to renovate the country's road network.
Agreement was also reached on the opening of a Japanese
embassy in Baku next year. A Japanese spokesman said
Tokyo may offer to finance some sections of the TRACECA
Asia-Europe transport corridor and is interested in expanding
its participation in Azerbaijan's oil and gas sector. LF

AZERBAIJANI OFFICIAL HINTS AT FURTHER EXPANSION
OF GUUAM

Azerbaijani State Foreign Policy advisor Vafa
Guluzade told Turan on 3 May that Poland and Romania are
interested in joining the Georgia-Ukraine-Uzbekistan-
Azerbaijan-Moldova alignment in the near future. He added
that GUUAM is expected to intensify its activities and hold
meetings with the heads of state of countries that have
expressed an interest in membership. Talks are under way on
the optimum location for the organization's headquarters and
the formation of its Secretariat, Guluzade added. In related
news, a delegation from the Romanian Defense Ministry and
military-industrial complex visited Georgia last week to
discuss areas of future cooperation, Caucasus Press
reported. LF

GEORGIAN STUDENTS PROTEST PLANNED U.S. EXHIBITS

Several dozen Georgian students and members of the clergy
are continuing a hunger strike at several locations in Tbilisi to
protest plans to send priceless antique manuscripts and
Church treasures on a tour of four U.S. cities this fall,
Caucasus Press reported on 3 May. AP had quoted one of
the protest participants as predicting that the valuables
would be clandestinely sold to private collectors and
replaced with fakes. LF

KAZAKH JOURNALISTS CRITICIZE DRAFT LAW ON MASS
MEDIA

Meeting in Almaty on 3 May to mark International
Media Day, journalists subjected Kazakhstan's new draft law
on mass media to harsh criticism, RFE/RL correspondents in
the former capital reported. They charged that unless
unspecified drastic amendments are made to that draft,
freedom of speech and the press in Kazakhstan will be
restricted. It is not known who prepared the draft law, which
was published in the press last week but has not been
distributed to parliamentary deputies for discussion. LF

KYRGYZ, UZBEK TRAIN TRANSIT RESUMES THROUGH
KAZAKH TERRITORY

The heads of Kazakhstan's and
Uzbekistan's national railroad companies have reached an
agreement on the resumption of rail traffic from Kyrgyzstan
and Uzbekistan across Kazakh territory, RFE/RL's Kazakh
Service reported on 4 May. Kazakhstan had halted rail freight
shipments from Kyrgyzstan in mid-April and from Uzbekistan
one week later because of unpaid transit debts amounting to
$3.8 million and $8 million, respectively (see "RFE/RL
Newsline," 23 April 1999). Those debts will now be repaid by
31 May. LF

KYRGYZSTAN'S INDUSTRY UNABLE TO REPAY DOMESTIC,
FOREIGN LOANS

Kyrgzystan's industrial sector owes the
government some 403 million soms (about $11 million) in
domestic loans and an additional 4.367 billion soms (about
$125 million) made available in foreign credits, RFE/RL's
Bishkek bureau reported on 3 May quoting government
sources. Two-thirds of the 105 enterprises that received
foreign loans during the period 1992-1998 are now on the
verge of bankruptcy. LF

TAJIK COMMANDER RELEASES ANOTHER HOSTAGE

Mansur Muakalov, whose fighters seized six Tajik police
officers on the night of 27-28 April to demand the release of
five of their associates under investigation for murder,
handed over a fourth hostage late on 2 May, AP reported
from Dushanbe the following day. Talks are continuing on the
release of the two remaining captive policemen. LF

U.S. AMBASSADOR RETURNS TEMPORARILY TO BELARUS

U.S. Ambassador to Belarus Daniel Speckhard has returned to
Belarus for the first time since he was recalled to Washington
last June in protest at his eviction from the Drazdy diplomatic
compound near Minsk. Speckhard told journalists on 3 May
that he will stay in Minsk for one week to examine the
Belarusian authorities' offers to provide him with a new
residence, Belapan reported. Speckhard added that he will
also hold meetings with government officials, opposition
leaders, and ordinary citizens during his visit, AP reported.
JM

BELARUSIAN POPULAR FRONT PROTESTS PRESIDENTIAL
ELECTION PROCEDURE

Following an objection by its exiled
leader Zyanon Paznyak (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 3 May 1999),
the Belarusian Popular Front (BNF) has protested the early
voting procedure adopted by the Central Electoral
Commission for the May presidential elections, RFE/RL's
Belarusian Service reported on 3 May. The BNF's protest will
be examined by the Supreme Soviet Presidium on 4 May.
Syarhey Papkou, chief of Paznyak's election staff, told RFE/RL
that the early voting procedure does not conform with the
presidential election law. The BNF wants the elections to be
held on 16 May at stationary polling stations, instead of
conducting voting at voters' homes from 6-16 May. According
to Papkou, the resolution on early voting was adopted "under
pressure" from President Alyaksandr Lukashenka's regime. JM

KUCHMA EARNS PLACE IN PRESS 'HALL OF SHAME'

The
U.S. Committee to Protect Journalists has included Ukrainian
President Leonid Kuchma in a list of 10 heads of state
considered to be the biggest "enemies of the press." The
list, which was made public on 3 May, places Kuchma
alongside the leaders of Yugoslavia, China, Cuba, the
Democratic Republic of Congo, and Ethiopia. The committee
says that by "using tax and libel laws as instruments of his
hostility to journalists, Kuchma runs roughshod over any
expression of opposition." It also accuses Kuchma of "tacit
acceptance of violence against the press," which encourages
assaults on Ukrainian reporters and editors and adds to a
"general climate of fear and self-censorship." Conspicuously
absent from the list is Belarusian President Lukashenka, who
had been included on it for the past several years. JM

IMF SAYS PLANNED CUTS IN ESTONIAN BUDGET
INSUFFICIENT

IMF experts told Prime Minister Mart Laar on 3
May that they believe Estonia's 1999 budget should be cut
by 2.3 billion kroons ($156.5 million), ETA reported. The
government has a drawn up a negative supplementary
budget that envisages cuts in expenditures totaling some 1
billion kroons (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 23 April 1999). It plans
to discuss the draft on 4 May. JC

LATVIAN PREMIER EXPANDS CABINET...

Vilis Kristopans
said on Latvian Radio on 3 May that he will appoint two new
state ministers, LETA reported. Viktors Jaksons of the For
Fatherland and Freedom party has been appointed state
minister for heath and Tatjana Koke of the New Party state
minister for high education. Kristopans noted that
negotiations are continuing on the posts of forestry and
municipal reforms state ministers. Both the Social Democrats
and Latvia's Way have nominated candidates for those
positions. JC

...WHILE SOCIAL DEMOCRATS EXPAND COOPERATION

Following a meeting between representatives of the New
Party and the Social Democrats, Egils Baldzens, the chairman
of the Social Democrats' parliamentary group, announced that
the two parties will soon sign a cooperation agreement
focusing on issues of interest to both, including the
privatization of large enterprises, the national economy,
social issues, and cooperation between the Ministries of
Agriculture and the Economy, ELTA reported on 3 May.
Baldzens also announced that a cooperation agreement with
the For Fatherland and Freedom party will be signed this
week. That accord will provide for cooperating on social
issues and on the protection of the domestic market. JC

LITHUANIAN PRESIDENT APPOINTS ACTING PREMIER...

Valdas Adamkus on 3 May appointed Labor and Social
Welfare Minister Irena Degutiene as acting prime minister,
after accepting earlier the same day Gediminas Vagnorius's
resignation from the premiership. Together with five other
ministers (finance, transport, justice, public administrative
reforms, and culture), Degutiene, 49, had handed in her
resignation on 3 May. All of those ministers, with the
exception of Finance Minister Algirdas Semeta, are members
of the ruling Conservative Party. There were no reports,
however, that Adamkus has accepted the ministers'
resignations, and ELTA quoted presidential spokeswoman
Violeta Gaizauskaite as saying that all ministers must stay in
their posts until a new government has been formed. JC

...AS CONSERVATIVES SOFTEN ANTI-PRESIDENT
STANCE?

Following a meeting with Adamkus on 3 May,
leaders of the ruling Conservative Party stressed they will
not nominate a candidate for the premiership but want the
president to do so in order that the new government enjoys
the "president's confidence." At the same time, contrary to
earlier statements, they gave to understand that they will
participate in the new government. And, according to ELTA,
Conservative Party members avoided giving direct answers
to the question of what the party would do if the president
were to nominate a Conservative as next premier. Caucus
leader Arvydas Vidziunas told reporters that "we will wait for
the presidential nomination and then decide." JC

RUSSIA RESUMES GAS SUPPLIES TO LITHUANIA

Lithuania's
state gas corporation Lietuvos Dujos said on 3 May that
Gazprom has resumed full gas supplies to Lithuania after
cutting deliveries last month (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 20 April
1999). Gazprom had claimed that Lithuania owed it some $18
million and threatened to cut supplies if the debt were not
paid. Lithuania insists that it owed about half that amount and
that the debt has now been settled, AFP reported. JC

SOLIDARITY LEADER ASKED TO RUN FOR PRESIDENT

The
Social Movement of Solidarity Electoral Action (RS AWS),
Solidarity's political arm, headed by Prime Minister Jerzy
Buzek, has asked Solidarity leader Marian Krzaklewski to run
as its candidate in presidential elections in 2000, PAP
reported on 3 May. Krzaklewski said the same day that the
RS AWS proposal came as a surprise to him and that he has
not yet made up his mind whether to run. He added that he
could run for president only if the right-of-center parties
fielded one candidate. JM

POLAND'S LEFT WING WANTS EQUAL SOCIAL
OPPORTUNITIES

A dozen left wing parties--including the
Social Democrats of the Polish Republic, the Labor Union, and
the Polish Socialist Party (PPS)--met on 30 April to discuss an
alternative development strategy for Poland as well as a
different market-economy model, "Gazeta Wyborcza"
reported on 4 May. According to the daily, Poland's left wing
wants to work out a program that will guarantee equal social
opportunities for everybody. "More and more people are
suffering losses due to the systemic transformation [in
Poland]," PPS leader Piotr Ikonowicz commented. JM

HAVEL CALLS ON CZECHS TO SHOW COMPASSION TO
KOSOVAR REFUGEES

President Vaclav Havel on 3 May
urged Czechs to be sympathetic toward the Kosovar
refugees' plight and not to hesitate to provide them with
temporary lodging, CTK reported. Havel made his comments
amid reports of Czech towns and villages protesting and
even refusing to accommodate ethnic Albanian refugees from
Kosova. Havel said Czechs should remember that before the
1989 revolution Czechs emigrated en masse to many
different countries. The president added that the low level of
public support for NATO air strikes among the population can
be attributed in part to the failure of Czech politicians to
explain the situation in Kosova. Havel also was less than
enthusiastic with Foreign Minister Jan Kavan's peace plan
(see "RFE/RL Newsline," 3 May 1999), saying that "there are
similar proposals in other NATO countries." PB

LEADING OPPOSITION PARTY ADOPTS RESERVED
POSITION ON KOSOVA

The Executive Committee of
parliamentary speaker Vaclav Klaus's Civic Democratic Party
(ODS) passed a resolution on Kosova on 3 May that casts
doubt upon NATO's strategy, CTK reported. The resolution
supports the Czech Republic's fulfilling its NATO obligations
but is skeptical about the use of air strikes to resolve the
crisis. Several members of the ODS objected to the passage
of the resolution, which closely reflects the stance of the
ruling Socialists (CSSD). In other news, the daily "Lidove
noviny" reported that the Central Bohemian branch of the
CSSD has drawn up a report highly critical of CSSD head and
Premier Milos Zeman. PB

KOVAC REJECTS CALLS TO THROW IN THE TOWEL

Former Slovak President Michal Kovac said on 3 May in
Bratislava that he will stay in the race for the presidency,
despite calls for two of the three independent candidates to
renounce their candidacies, TASR reported. The "Three for
One" initiative, organized by 26 Slovak Democratic Coalition
deputies, is seen as an attempt to boost support for
candidate Magda Vasaryova over former Premier Vladimir
Meciar so that she would take part in a likely runoff against
frontrunner Rudolf Schuster. Or, in the event of Vasaryova's
dropping out of the race, that Schuster would receive more
than 50 percent of the vote and win outright. Vasaryova
consistently trails Meciar by a small percentage for third
place in opinion polls. Kovac regularly places fifth, behind
nationalist Jan Slota, both of whom have only single-digit
support. PB

SLOVAK GOVERNMENT DENIES UNCONSTITUTIONALITY
CHARGES

The Slovak government issued a statement on 3
May refuting charges made by the opposition Movement for a
Democratic Slovakia (HZDS) that Bratislava's granting of air
space to NATO violates the constitution, TASR reported. The
statement said that Article 119 of the Slovak Constitution
gives the government the right to make such important
internal and foreign-policy decisions. In other news, the
deputy chairman of the HZDS, Vojtech Tkac, said the party
will establish its own vote-counting system for fear of fraud
during the upcoming presidential election. PB

COALITION, OPPOSITION CONFLICT DEEPENS OVER USE
OF HUNGARIAN AIR SPACE

Prime Minister Viktor Orban said
on 3 May that the Socialist Party is "playing with fire" by
attempting to limit NATO's access to Hungarian airports and
air space (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 3 May 1999). He said
Hungary could find itself in a difficult position if the largest
opposition party withdraws from a six-party agreement
guaranteeing unlimited use of the country's air space and
airports by NATO aircraft. In other news, Peter Balas, deputy
state secretary at the Economics Ministry, announced on 3
May that Hungary has joined the EU oil embargo on
Yugoslavia. And President Arpad Goncz agreed with visiting
South African President Nelson Mandela that the conflict in
Yugoslavia must be resolved through negotiation. MSZ

THOUSANDS OF KOSOVARS REACH MACEDONIA

Some
9,000 Kosovars arrived at the Blace frontier crossing with
Macedonia on 3 May. One-third of them spent the following
night in the open while waiting to enter Macedonia and the
transit camp at the border. Most of the 9,000 came from
Podujeva, north of Prishtina. Aid workers said that the fact
that the Serbian authorities deported the Kosovars in an
"unprecedented three trains" suggests that the Serbs "are
working overtime to clear the area north of Prishtina" of
ethnic Albanians, Reuters reported. One refugee said that
police separated young men from the rest of the expellees
at the Prishtina railway station. Aid workers added that this
marks the first time they have heard of such a practice in the
capital. Other refugees at Blace said they spent "weeks"
living in the mountains. Some of the women were raped by
Serbian forces. PM

ALBANIA PREPARES TO TAKE 60,000 REFUGEES FROM
MACEDONIA

British Lieutenant-General John Reith, who is
commander of NATO's humanitarian relief mission in Albania,
said in Tirana on 3 May that the alliance plans to build camps
for an additional 160,000 Kosovar refugees, including 60,000
from neighboring Macedonia. He added that the Albanian
government wants to make "a gesture of intent" to the
Macedonian government to show that it is "willing to take
people" from Macedonia's overcrowded camps. Reith said
that Tirana airport currently handles 80 humanitarian aid
flights daily. Meanwhile, aid workers from the UN High
Commissioner for Refugees evacuated about 7,000 refugees
from Kukes in 15 buses and 75 military vehicles. A UNHCR
spokesman said in Tirana that the number of refugees in
Albania now exceeds 400,000. Elsewhere, Serbian artillery
shells hit an Albanian Television transmitter and a private
radio station near Qafe e Prushit in the Has Mountains, an
RFE/RL correspondent reported from Tirana. FS

UCK REJECTS LDK OFFER TO FORM NEW GOVERNMENT

Jakup Krasniqi, who is the principal spokesman for the
Kosova Liberation Army (UCK), told private Klan TV in Tirana
on 3 May that a proposal by officials from Ibrahim Rugova's
Democratic League of Kosova (LDK) to form a new
provisional government is "unacceptable," dpa reported.
Krasniqi added that "there is already a government of Kosova
led by [the UCK's] Hashim Thaci." Also in Tirana, an LDK
delegation led by shadow-state Prime Minister Bujar Bukoshi
held talks with Albanian government officials who are working
to bring together the rival Kosovar political forces, an RFE/RL
correspondent reported. Meanwhile, Krasniqi told the
Ljubljana daily "Delo" of 3 May that "we did not correctly
anticipate either the dimensions of war that would ensue
from the air strikes or that the Serbs' actions would
concentrate on civilians." He added that "we thought that
Serbia would mainly concentrate on defending itself from
NATO attacks." FS

NATO SAYS SERBS MADE 'PROPAGANDA TRICK' OUT OF
BUS INCIDENT

A spokesman for the Atlantic alliance said in
Brussels on 4 May that an attack on a bus near Prizren the
previous day was the result of fighting between the UCK and
Serbian forces and was not the work of NATO aircraft. He
added that "after a comprehensive review of operations, and
although several of our aircraft were in the general area,
there is no evidence to link our activities with this alleged
incident." Shortly after the attack on the bus, which left at
least 17 dead, Serbian authorities charged that a NATO bomb
hit the vehicle. PM

BLAIR HAILS 'JUST WAR'...

British Prime Minister Tony Blair
said at Macedonia's Stankovic refugee camp on 3 May that
"we will do everything we can to make sure that these
people, these innocent people, are allowed to go back to
their homes, their towns, their villages." Blair stressed that
NATO will continue its efforts to stop Yugoslav President
Slobodan Milosevic's "appalling policy of ethnic cleansing and
racial genocide... . That commitment is total." The prime
minister added that "this is not a battle for territory. It is a
battle for humanity. It is a just cause." PM

...AS DOES CHIRAC

French President Jacques Chirac said in
Paris on 3 May that NATO will continue its efforts against
Serbia until Milosevic accepts all of the alliance's demands.
Chirac added: "To all of you who have not seen a war,
especially the younger generations, I want to tell you that
this conflict is exemplary. It is not based on hidden economic
or strategic concerns, but on a concept of morality and the
honor of nations. To accept the horrors that we have
witnessed would mean losing our soul. It would allow an
unspeakable gangrene to settle once more on our continent."
PM

NEW WEAPON SHORT CIRCUITS SERBIAN POWER GRID

The Atlantic alliance shut down much of Serbia's power supply
on 2-3 May by using a new and highly secret "graphite bomb,"
AFP reported (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 3 May 1999). The
device, about which a Pentagon spokesman declined to
comment, explodes above a power station and releases a
cloud of graphite dust. The graphite in turn acts as a
conductor and short circuits the switching station, causing it
to shut itself down. Some equipment is permanently damaged,
but the graphite dust can be easily removed. "The Guardian"
of 4 May described the effects of the bomb on the electrical
network as "having the mechanical equivalent of a series of
heart attacks." Allied forces used an earlier version of the
weapon to shut down Iraq's power system in the 1991 Gulf
War. PM

MONTENEGRIN GOVERNMENT NOT INFORMED ABOUT
PORT CLOSURE

The government said in a statement on 3
May in Podgorica that it has not been officially informed about
the military authorities' decision to close the port of Bar (see
"RFE/RL Newsline," 3 May 1999). Jusuf Kalomperovic, who is
minister for shipping and communications, said that he hopes
that the navy will revoke its decision to shut down the port.
PM

TUDJMAN, OPPOSITION MAKE DEAL ON ELECTION LAW

In Zagreb on 3 May, President Franjo Tudjman agreed with
opposition leaders Ivica Racan of the Social Democrats and
Drazen Budisa of the Croatian Social-Liberal Party to abolish
separate electoral lists for Croats living abroad. Members of
the Diaspora will continue to have the right to vote and run
for office and will receive places on the party lists that
appear on ballots throughout Croatia, RFE/RL's South Slavic
Service reported. In recent elections, the existence of
separate lists meant in practice that voters in Herzegovina
elected a solid bloc of deputies to the Croatian parliament
from Tudjman's Croatian Democratic Community. Many
Western governments and institutions have criticized
Croatia's electoral laws, chiefly on the grounds that the
ethnic Croats of Bosnia-Herzegovina are citizens of that
country and should not be allowed vote in Croatian elections.
It is unclear whether the latest compromise will help pave the
way for Croatia's admission to Euro-Atlantic institutions. PM

PERRY TO MEDIATE GULF OF PIRAN DISPUTE

A
spokesman for the Slovenian Foreign Ministry said in Ljubljana
on 3 May that Croatian and Slovenian officials will meet the
following day in Washington with former Secretary of Defense
William Perry. The spokesman added that the governments of
the two ex-Yugoslav states asked Perry to mediate their
dispute over their maritime border in the Gulf of Piran. Croatia
claims that the gulf belongs to it alone. Slovenia wants a
corridor through the gulf to enable Slovenian ships and
fishing boats to have direct access to the high seas. Since
1991, Zagreb has stuck to its position in the hope of
extracting concessions from Ljubljana on other bilateral
issues, RFE/RL's South Slavic Service reported. Both
countries need to resolve the dispute in order to accelerate
their integration into Euro-Atlantic structures. PM

BLAIR MEETS ROMANIAN PRIME MINISTER IN BUCHAREST

British Prime Minister Tony Blair said on 4 May that he favors
holding a conference on ways to help Balkan countries
suffering economically because of the war in Yugoslavia, AP
reported. Blair made his comments after a meeting with
Premier Radu Vasile. He reportedly told Romanian President
Emil Constantinescu that he also favors a reconstruction plan
for the Balkans at the conclusion of the war. He said NATO
appreciates Bucharest's support during the air campaign.
Blair is to address the parliament before returning to Britain.
PB

NATO COMMANDER PRAISES BULGARIA, SAYS MILOSEVIC
LOSING WAR

U.S. General Wesley Clark, the top NATO
commander in Europe, said in Sofia on 3 May that NATO is
winning the war against Yugoslavia, AP reported. Clark was in
Sofia for talks with Bulgarian leaders in an attempt to rally
support for a parliamentary vote on an accord with the
alliance granting it access to a limited air corridor over
Bulgaria. Clark said after meeting with Premier Ivan Kostov
that NATO is "very appreciative of the courageous and very
forward-looking approach" of the Bulgarian government. He
said Bulgaria is a "very valued, special member of the
Partnership for Peace program" and added that NATO will
work with Bulgaria to prevent a repetition of the errant
missile incident last week (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 29 April
1999). The Bulgarian Constitutional Court ruled on 3 May that
the accord with NATO does not violate the constitution. More
than 1,000 people demonstrated outside the parliament on 4
May as debate on the accord began. PB

KOSTOV WARNS OF THREAT REFUGEES POSE TO
MACEDONIA

Premier Kostov said on 3 May that the tide of
Kosovar refugees in Macedonia poses political and economic
dangers to that country. In an interview in the daily "Trud,"
Kostov said destabilization of Macedonia can end "in only two
tragic ways." One way would be a split in which an ethnic
Albanian part of Macedonia joins Albania and the other part
returns to Yugoslavia. The second "tragic" end would be "for
Macedonia to die the way Yugoslavia is dying." He referred to
Macedonia as a "brother country." PB

DESTROYING SERBIA IN ORDER TO SAVE IT

by Christopher Walker

The administration of a hard-hitting therapy for a grave
illness has the potential to cure but also runs the risk of
grievously harming the patient. For Yugoslavia, NATO's
therapy of choice--an ever-escalating bombing campaign--
poses the following question: Will this military operation
affect Serbian society so that it becomes consumed with
resentment and malice toward the international community?
Or will the NATO effort purge from Serbia the cancerous
behavior that has so plagued the entire Balkan region for the
last decade?

Now into the second month of its bombing operation,
NATO is targeting a wider range of transport and
communication links and is increasingly focusing on a range of
key industrial sites and economic assets throughout Serbia.
While most of the targets at the outset of the campaign
were overtly military in nature, it is clear that considerable
destruction is now being done to the civilian sector and
economic infrastructure in Serbia--and not only as a result of
collateral damage.

It is also clear that the Western alliance overestimated
the effectiveness of air power as the tool for compelling
Yugoslav President Slobodan Milosevic to accede to its
demands. Unable to get Milosevic to capitulate quickly and
unwilling to take the more drastic military steps that would
help bring the conflict to a close, the allies are relegated to
hammering Serbia from the air.

The failure of the Milosevic era speaks for itself. All
sectors of Yugoslav society have been infected by the
regime's primitive style of governance. A byproduct of the
NATO bombing campaign has been an intensification of
already existing anti-democratic conditions in Serbia:
profiteers who honed their skills during the Croatian and
Bosnian wars are now back on familiar, lucrative ground; the
country's politics, already extreme by regional standards,
have been further polarized; the economy, in shambles dating
back several years, is in danger of being gutted entirely; and
independent media, which had operated under consistent
official pressure, have now been formally taken over and
added to the state-run propaganda machinery.

At the same time, the effects of Serbia's condition have
not been confined within its own borders. On the contrary,
Serbia has played the role of regional menace for a full
decade now. And as a result, all of its neighbors have
suffered.

The politics of aggression, as directed from Belgrade,
have dragged down the regional economy and contributed
greatly to the view of the Balkans as a dark corner in Europe.
Serbia's actions have also radicalized to varying degrees the
politics of neighboring countries and provinces, including
Croatia, Bosnia, Albania, Macedonia, Montenegro, and Kosova.
The dramatic shifts of ethnic populations, largely initiated and
orchestrated by the Serbian regime, have wreaked havoc on
the regional landscape since the disintegration of Yugoslavia.

Recognizing the enormity of the task of enabling
democratic habits to take root in Serbia and throughout the
Balkans, the NATO alliance is promoting what U.S. President
Bill Clinton describes as a post-conflict strategy for
reconstruction and renewal. The alliance seems sensitive to
the fact that Serbia cannot be left as a festering wound in
southeastern Europe after hostilities end.

Soliciting Russia's assistance in bringing about a
settlement with Milosevic is a delicate issue. Implicit in using
Russia's diplomatic channels to Belgrade is Milosevic's
remaining in power after a negotiated settlement. One
alternative arrangement, albeit almost inconceivable at the
moment, would be a Moscow-brokered plan that met key
NATO demands, while simultaneously allowing Milosevic an exit
from power that would protect his physical safety and not
subject him to prosecution as a war criminal.

But if Milosevic remains, it is hard to imagine a scenario
under which renewal and reform could take root in
Yugoslavia. At this point, reconstructing Serbia and
reorienting its politics will be difficult enough even if a change
in leadership were to take place. Moreover, Milosevic's
continued presence would negatively influence the ability of
fragile neighboring countries to regain their footing.

Thoroughly vanquishing Serbia runs the risk of
positioning it as the sick man of Europe for the 21st century.
Equally risky would be to conclude the military campaign
without reasonable confidence that in the post-conflict
period Serbia would change its political habits. A Serbian
nation intent on continuing a pattern of belligerence would
undermine the entire region's prospects for stability and
prosperity.

The NATO alliance is putting forward billions of dollars to
continue its military effort against Serbia. Many more billions
will be necessary for the civilian rebuilding effort after the
guns are laid down.
The author is a New York-based analyst specializing in East
European affairs (intrel@aol.com).