Handicapping a Tiger-less Masters

The Masters just won’t be the same without Tiger Woods. It’ll be better.

That’s probably a stretch. Last week, I wrote up the news that surgery would keep the four-time champ sidelined during this, the most sacred of golf events. I opined that Augusta’s carnival of traditions “just got a whole lot less interesting.”

But after letting his absence sink in for a few days, second-tier story lines suddenly seem a bit more tasty. In a field bursting with fresh faces, will we get a rookie winner in Jordan Spieth? Can Rory McIlroy right his past wrongs? Does Lefty have some magic left in his bag? Is there an Aussie dynasty in the making?

For the casual observer who doesn’t know the difference between Bubba Watson and Bubba Gump’s, those themes won’t be enough to draw them in and ratings will likely suffer. But that’s their problem. The Masters is bigger than one player.

Never before has the field been so wide open. At least in the Tiger era. For the betting man, there’s a lot to take in. So if the stock market isn’t satisfying your thirst for risk on, here are the top five favorites, according to online bookmaker Paddy Power.

Rory McIlroy

Odds: 10-1

Why he’ll win: He’s got the sweetest swing in the business, and his style is well-suited for Augusta. Since his Masters collapse in 2011, McIlroy has been able to win a couple of majors and get that choke monkey off his back.

Why he won’t: Rounding Amen Corner on Sunday in the hunt is enough to test the steeliest of golfers. McIlroy’s infamous side tour of the lush Augusta countryside in 2011 will surely be on his mind if he sniffs the finish line. Plus, he hasn’t won anything since 2012, though he’s finished in the top 10 seven of his last nine events.

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Adam Scott

Odds: 12-1

Why he’ll win:He’s the No. 2 golfer in the world behind Woods and also the current green-jacket wearer. He’s obviously got what it takes. After stuffing everyone full of bay bugs at the Champions Dinner, Scott should be ready to make another run.

Why he won’t:Back-to-backs don’t come easy. Only Tiger Woods, Jack Nicklaus and Nick Faldo have been able to pull it off. He’ll also take over the top golfer in the world spot if he finishes third or higher. That’s a lot of pressure.

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Phil Mickelson

Odds:14-1

Why he’ll win:He’s going for his fourth Masters win and his resume on these hallowed grounds is about as good as anybody’s. He doesn’t have as many green jackets as Tiger and Jack, but, in the quirky stat departement, he’s finished in the top five during every even numbered year since 2000. Counting him out would be as irresponsible as going for the green from the pine straw on the 13th.

Why he won’t: His game isn’t in tip-top shape. Usually, it’s rounding into form by the time April comes around, but Phil hasn’t earned a top 10 finish yet this year. He won’t have his nemesis to light a fire under him, either.

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Jason Day

Odds:16-1

Why he’ll win: He’s finished in the top three in both his Masters starts. Enough said. He crushes the ball and has a feathery touch. A magic combo anywhere, but especially at Augusta. Day’s had a light load this year, but he did win the big match-play tourney, one of the most pressure packed events of the non-majors.

Why he won’t: Because he’s my pick to win it, and that’s plenty. Also, he’s had to deal with a hand injury that messed up his schedule this year.

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Sergio Garcia

Odds: 20-1

Why he’ll win: He’s getting closer and closer (and less annoying) every year since 2009, finishing in the eighth spot at the Masters in 2013. He leads the entire tour in scrambling to save par, and at Augusta, that’s essential for success.

Why he won’t: No European has won since Olazabal did it in 1999. That’s nothing like the pre-Adam Scott Aussie drought, but it’s still some sort of curse. Then there’s the added burden of having never won a major. Garcia’s putter has historically failed him at crucial times, too. That won’t cut it on these slick greens.

While you’re on the Paddy Power site, you might want to throw a sawbuck on Julian Assange leaving the Ecuadorian embassy by hot air balloon. It pays 250 to 1.

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