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Withdrawing a patient from a long course of treatment can be a tricky process, fraught with anxiety, relapses, and crises in confidence. But the U.S. stock market is off to a decent start.

For a start, the initial shock from the recent selloff in stocks, bonds, and commodities seems to be wearing off. The Federal Reserve's suggestion that it might wean the market from an unlimited dose of monetary medicine has already inspired much denial and anger: Bond bulls, proponents of overmedication, and fans of recreational drug use will insist that the world needs an endless fill of near-zero interest rates. Government apologists are working hard to soothe the markets and neuter Ben Bernanke's recent remarks. And, yes, the Fed hasn't even reduced its bond buying yet, and likely won't until the economy spectacularly cooperates.

Yet all this overlooks how the central bank, by telegraphing its intentions, has already started to rein in liquidity. Benchmark yields on 10-year Treasuries recently jumped to two-year highs, and money once plowed toward higher-yielding emerging markets is hastily being pulled back.

UNWINDING THE BIGGEST BOND BULL MARKET in history won't be quick and easy, and Bank of America Merrill Lynch catalogued just what six years of central-bank medicine have wrought: 520 rate cuts across the globe, $33 trillion in fiscal and monetary stimulus, half of the market cap for global government bonds yielding less than 1%, and the lowest U.S. government bond yields in 220 years -- nearly as long as the U.S. has been independent.

Mopping up a flood is messy, and Treasuries are on course for their worst year since 1978; investment-grade bonds, since 1973. In the short term, the potential for bond-market volatility is why stocks are mired in a trading range, even after last week's 0.9% bounce. Next up for the S&P 500: a test of its 50-day moving average near 1620.

To be sure, it's unusual to see rates climbing while inflation wilts. Quite clearly, rates are rising partly because the Fed, a big buyer of Treasuries, has hinted that it might back off. Yet key drivers of inflation expectations like wages have been stagnant, and surplus capacity and waning Asian appetite continue to stifle commodity costs.

Who are the potential winners and losers? "Since a precondition for Fed tapering is improving economic data, GDP-sensitive sectors of the market should outperform," says Savita Subramanian, BofA Merrill Lynch's head of U.S. equity strategy. And while investors should immunize their portfolios against rising rates, it's too early to spurn income entirely—not while rates remain historically low. "Here, we think dividend-growth stocks make a lot more sense than high-dividend-yield stocks," Subramanian adds, and sectors like technology, industrials, and energy have the cash flow to boost dividends. Conversely, she expects bond proxies like utilities, telecoms, tobacco, and other high-yielding segments to lag; they generally don't benefit from economic improvement.

It also helps that expectations have been butchered ahead of the coming earnings-season charade. So far, companies warning investors to expect worse results have outpaced those with happier news by 6.5-to-1, the lousiest ratio since 2001. Analysts now see second-quarter profits growing just 3%, down from the 8.4% projected in January. Revenue is expected to tick up a mere 1.8%. "With conservative guidance and lowered analyst estimates, companies once again have a low bar to clear," says Gregory Harrison, Thomson Reuters' earnings analyst.

WILL HEAVY OUTFLOWS from emerging markets thwart their economies' access to capital? Beijing's ploy for tempering credit excesses has rattled confidence, and Seoul must tackle the vexing problem of a depreciating yen. But surveys show money managers' expectations for Chinese growth mining two-year depths, while allocations to emerging markets have collapsed to their worst level since 2008. With these still-growing markets slumping near seven times 2013 profits, how much bad news is already factored in?

Our Dec. 17 column ("Half-Right or Half-Baked?") argued that then-prevalent calls for a V-shape 2013 stock-market trajectory -- a tough first half, followed by a stronger second half -- might not play out. In fact, the Dow looked beyond fiscal woes to snag its best first half in 14 years, and now waits for profits to catch up. Stocks might not match their first-half momentum, but if the bond market behaves, there's no reason we can't survive a transition back to a world of more normal interest rates and policy.

Change isn't easy, but as the rock band R.E.M. might say, "It's the end of the world as we know it, and I feel fine."