This Settles The 'Robots Will Take Our Jobs' Argument Once And For Allhttp://www.businessinsider.com/will-robots-take-our-jobs-2014-7/comments
en-usWed, 31 Dec 1969 19:00:00 -0500Mon, 19 Mar 2018 11:47:35 -0400Dylan Lovehttp://www.businessinsider.com/c/53bae3826da8119a262b272afredlledMon, 07 Jul 2014 14:14:26 -0400http://www.businessinsider.com/c/53bae3826da8119a262b272a
B-Ark or Kornbluth's Marching Morons solution?http://www.businessinsider.com/c/53b959326da811c37394cb9dHarroll MorrisSun, 06 Jul 2014 10:12:02 -0400http://www.businessinsider.com/c/53b959326da811c37394cb9d
It will get better, when robots and AI replace management. The AI will have to be hard coded so that it takes care of its humans, but that will allow us the freedom that the Renaissance allowed, but for far more people and a larger percentage of the population. Then we can go about creating or whatever. It will have to happen after we make the real world equivalent of Star Trek replicators that take raw materials from places like the asteroid belt, and we will also have to have virtually unlimited amounts of power. We will probably have to "cure" people who can't ever get enough to the point of causing other people to live in need, but robots and limited Artificial Intelligence done correctly could make our world MUCH better than it is, it just has to advance to the point that stupid greedy a-holes are no longer in charge of anything.http://www.businessinsider.com/c/53b8ae2269bedd9c1da6ba2dGary CunninghamSat, 05 Jul 2014 22:02:10 -0400http://www.businessinsider.com/c/53b8ae2269bedd9c1da6ba2d
"Some temporary disruptions". That's an understatement. Have you looked around you lately. I'm a skilled technician with years of experience and I couldn't help noticing the other day, as I stood in line at the food stamp office, the look of quiet desperation on the faces of numerous individuals.http://www.businessinsider.com/c/53b8aa926bb3f70778a6ba31Gary CunninghamSat, 05 Jul 2014 21:46:58 -0400http://www.businessinsider.com/c/53b8aa926bb3f70778a6ba31
Agree completely. I see a bloody uprising in the not so distant future.http://www.businessinsider.com/c/53b8aa4a6da811e620638eacGary CunninghamSat, 05 Jul 2014 21:45:46 -0400http://www.businessinsider.com/c/53b8aa4a6da811e620638eac
Short human creativity? What sector of educated morons are you talking to. I am an A&P Mechanic with 28 years of experience who just took a short contract job at Thales to help pay bills due to a long, extended term of unemployment in Dallas, TX. The job entailed installing monitors in setbacks on American Airlines aircraft to the tune of 28.00 an hour. Installation consisted of removing four screws, install new unit, then reinstall four screws. Really? Boredom in the extreme. When waiting for parts we would sometimes sit onboard the aircraft for an entire 10-hr shift doing nothing as the lead tech downloaded software. Of course eventually I was fired for having a "bad attitude" due to unenthusiasm. Good riddance! I went back to my old job scraping by at 16.00 dollars an hour overhauling reciprocating engines for small personal aircraft. At least it provides some challenge even at a pittance. Point being, I lost you somewhere when you were using creativity in the same sentence with mind-numbingly boring assembly line jobs! Creative for who?http://www.businessinsider.com/c/53b816c4ecad047921a6ba38jjhikesSat, 05 Jul 2014 11:16:20 -0400http://www.businessinsider.com/c/53b816c4ecad047921a6ba38
That is a good analogy. For thousands of years pundits might have said "but technology still cannot replace the horse."
Until it did.http://www.businessinsider.com/c/53b816a4eab8ea5f02a52f16Mark WallinSat, 05 Jul 2014 11:15:48 -0400http://www.businessinsider.com/c/53b816a4eab8ea5f02a52f16
Half of the human race has an IQ of less than 100. In addition, the knowledge required to do any kind of a job has increased dramatically. What kinds of occupations are available to the less intellectually endowed and can they earn enough to earn their daily bread not to mention all of the expenses of health care, retirement, etc.?
I read where even media jobs such as writing copy for mundane news stories is being farmed out to machines. I don't see a place for us humans in the not too distant future.http://www.businessinsider.com/c/53b8166c69bedd9036a6ba3aMark WallinSat, 05 Jul 2014 11:14:52 -0400http://www.businessinsider.com/c/53b8166c69bedd9036a6ba3a
Half of the human race has an IQ of less than 100. In addition, the knowledge required to do any kind of a job has increased dramatically. What kinds of occupations are available to the less intellectually endowed and can they earn enough to earn their daily bread not to mention all of the expenses of health care, retirement, etc.?
I read where even media jobs such as writing copy for mundane news stories is being farmed out to machines. I don't see a place for us humans in the not too distant future.http://www.businessinsider.com/c/53b80de1ecad046a02a6ba2fAl DSat, 05 Jul 2014 10:38:25 -0400http://www.businessinsider.com/c/53b80de1ecad046a02a6ba2f
Workers who are displaced by robots won't be much of a problem if they find work elsewhere. It's more a matter of how much the greedy rich are willing to share with the rest of us. There will be a breaking point if the poverty line rises above too many heads. We're getting a little too close to that point right now. Perhaps a return to the old tradition of most dads going off to work while most moms stay home with the kids will be the best solution if too many people become unemployed. Of course, career-minded women and feminists will object.http://www.businessinsider.com/c/53b80a7c6bb3f78527a6ba2dJoe StevensSat, 05 Jul 2014 10:23:56 -0400http://www.businessinsider.com/c/53b80a7c6bb3f78527a6ba2d
I love history and it is fascinating to see machines change the face of various aspects of the world. Technology has made many skills obsolete and changed society.
Try going to your local Army recruiter and bragging about your expertise with pointy sticks or slings. They might prefer skills with machines called guns. The invention of gun powder and later tanks and other high tech weapons has not resulted in a world with no soldiers but rather professional soldiers with a different skill set. It did generally put an end to forcing the farming population to go on campaigns as chariot/knight fodder, so 'losing' the farmer / involuntarily dying for the king jobs must be considered.
The industrial revolution created and eventually generally destroyed the child labor jobs thanks to social pressure. Most agree those jobs were better lost.
All the gadgets and robots we have now are do to the agricultural revolutions that have taken yield from very low to very high, allowing very few agriculturalists to feed all us city dwellers. Again generally good in most eyes.
In general it seems like technology has created a better life and better jobs for humans with some temporary disruptions to folks without the skills needed for the new presumably better jobs. For instance buggy whip makers likely did not like Henry Ford's idea of mass producing and inexpensive automobile.
Nor for the matter did it help the horse workforce. New York City was a seething mass of excrement and horse carcasses in the years immediately before the auto which was hailed as an environmentally friendly solution. The horse have quite lost their jobs and the race does not appear to be likely to get those lost jobs back.
So are robots tools to make out lives easier or new better forms of us that will replace us as the auto replaced the horse?http://www.businessinsider.com/c/53b6fa7969bedde745ecd15bjjhikesFri, 04 Jul 2014 15:03:21 -0400http://www.businessinsider.com/c/53b6fa7969bedde745ecd15b
The pointed answer is that employment in the rail industry has been falling for 50 years.
For a long time, yes, we were good at creating new jobs as others were "taken" by machines, but it is inherently a "race condition." There is no natural law that human workers must always win that race.http://www.businessinsider.com/c/53b6f97a6da811543f975e65jjhikesFri, 04 Jul 2014 14:59:06 -0400http://www.businessinsider.com/c/53b6f97a6da811543f975e65
Note above that there is not even job expansion in Amazon's core category, "Stock clerks and order fillers."http://www.businessinsider.com/c/53b54062eab8ea537b7418c0RobotenomicsThu, 03 Jul 2014 07:37:06 -0400http://www.businessinsider.com/c/53b54062eab8ea537b7418c0
Good point - and something considered in the overall research.http://www.businessinsider.com/c/53b520c16bb3f74158133776phoenixinvictusThu, 03 Jul 2014 05:22:09 -0400http://www.businessinsider.com/c/53b520c16bb3f74158133776
They said the same thing about steam engines and yet the world economy only grew. People fear new technology.http://www.businessinsider.com/c/53b4d6efecad041277d8477etechsinThu, 03 Jul 2014 00:07:11 -0400http://www.businessinsider.com/c/53b4d6efecad041277d8477e
this is so short sighted....companies that employ robots don't employee more humans because they inherently need more humans...they do because they become more productive and EXPAND. But once market has more robots around in general this effect will minimize and more so when robots become more advanced and need less maintenance/supplementing .http://www.businessinsider.com/c/53b4a85b69beddbb3ae18532SweetDougWed, 02 Jul 2014 20:48:27 -0400http://www.businessinsider.com/c/53b4a85b69beddbb3ae18532
Meet the future. The future doesn’t need you.
Oxford Professors: Robots And Computers Could Take Half Our Jobs Within The Next 20 Years
<a href="http://www.prisonplanet.com/oxford-professors-robots-and-computers-could-take-half-our-jobs-within-the-next-20-years.html" target="_blank" rel="nofollow" >http://www.prisonplanet.com/oxford-professors-robots-and-computers-could-take-half-our-jobs-within-the-next-20-years.html</a>
Meet the Robot Telemarketer Who Denies She’s A Robot
<a href="http://newsfeed.time.com/2013/12/10/meet-the-robot-telemarketer-who-denies-shes-a-robot/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow" >http://newsfeed.time.com/2013/12/10/meet-the-robot-telemarketer-who-denies-shes-a-robot/</a>
Google Wants To Build A Robot Army For The Manufacturing Sector
<a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/google-robot-technology-2013-12" target="_blank" rel="nofollow" >http://www.businessinsider.com/google-robot-technology-2013-12</a>
Motor Authority Nissan Nissan Leaf Self-Driving Car
A Self-Driving Nissan Has Successfully Navigated Public Roads In Japan
<a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/a-self-driving-nissan-has-successfully-navigated-public-roads-in-japan-2013-12" target="_blank" rel="nofollow" >http://www.businessinsider.com/a-self-driving-nissan-has-successfully-navigated-public-roads-in-japan-2013-12</a>
Doctor Robot Will See You Shortly
<a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-09-26/doctor-robot-will-see-you-shortly.html" target="_blank" rel="nofollow" >http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-09-26/doctor-robot-will-see-you-shortly.html</a>
The World's Largest Miner Wants To Replace Its Overpaid Train Drivers With Robots
<a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/rio-tinto-replaces-drivers-with-robots-2013-10" target="_blank" rel="nofollow" >http://www.businessinsider.com/rio-tinto-replaces-drivers-with-robots-2013-10</a>
The Less Obvious Dangers Of The Robot Economy
<a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/dangers-of-the-robot-economy-2013-9" target="_blank" rel="nofollow" >http://www.businessinsider.com/dangers-of-the-robot-economy-2013-9</a>
Robots help counter soaring labor costs
<a href="http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/china/2013-11/14/content_17103496.htm" target="_blank" rel="nofollow" >http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/china/2013-11/14/content_17103496.htm</a>
Foxconn Planning To Hire 1 Million Robots
<a href="http://techcrunch.com/2011/08/01/foxconn-planning-to-hire-1-million-robots/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow" >http://techcrunch.com/2011/08/01/foxconn-planning-to-hire-1-million-robots/</a>
Darpa PetMan Robot - Complete info
<a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5S4ZPvr6ry4" target="_blank" rel="nofollow" >http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5S4ZPvr6ry4</a>
SCHAFT robot wins DARPA Robotics Challenge Trials
<a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Rs8m3czkes4" target="_blank" rel="nofollow" >http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Rs8m3czkes4</a>
Researchers Are Making A 3D Printer That Can Build A House In 24 Hours
<a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/3d-printer-builds-house-in-24-hours-2014-1" target="_blank" rel="nofollow" >http://www.businessinsider.com/3d-printer-builds-house-in-24-hours-2014-1</a>
Navy Helps Fund 3D Printing of Buildings
<a href="http://defensetech.org/2014/01/20/navy-helps-fund-3d-printing-of-buildings/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow" >http://defensetech.org/2014/01/20/navy-helps-fund-3d-printing-of-buildings/</a>
Meet "Smart Restaurant": The Minimum-Wage-Crushing, Burger-Flipping Robot
<a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-01-12/meet-smart-restaurant-minimum-wage-crushing-burger-flipping-robot" target="_blank" rel="nofollow" >http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-01-12/meet-smart-restaurant-minimum-wage-crushing-burger-flipping-robot</a>
BANK OF AMERICA: 'Long Robots, Short Human Beings'
<a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/bofa-long-robots-short-human-beings-2014-1" target="_blank" rel="nofollow" >http://www.businessinsider.com/bofa-long-robots-short-human-beings-2014-1</a>
Patented Book Writing System Creates, Sells Hundreds Of Thousands Of Books On Amazon
<a href="http://singularityhub.com/2012/12/13/patented-book-writing-system-lets-one-professor-create-hundreds-of-thousands-of-amazon-books-and-counting/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow" >http://singularityhub.com/2012/12/13/patented-book-writing-system-lets-one-professor-create-hundreds-of-thousands-of-amazon-books-and-counting/</a>
The US Army Is Considering A Plan To Replace Thousands Of Troops With Robots
<a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/army-replace-troops-robots-2014-1?pundits_only=0&comments_page=1#comment-52df0f7469beddf357d27730" target="_blank" rel="nofollow" >http://www.businessinsider.com/army-replace-troops-robots-2014-1?pundits_only=0&comments_page=1#comment-52df0f7469beddf357d27730</a>
Driverless Trucks Will Keep Army Safe From IEDs
<a href="http://www.wired.com/dangerroom/2014/01/driverless/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow" >http://www.wired.com/dangerroom/2014/01/driverless/</a>
Not to be out done…
Russia takes on Google: Photographs of amphibious drones suggest country is developing a robotic ground army
<a href="http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-2544534/Russia-takes-Google-Photographs-amphibious-drones-suggest-country-developing-robotic-ground-army.html" target="_blank" rel="nofollow" >http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-2544534/Russia-takes-Google-Photographs-amphibious-drones-suggest-country-developing-robotic-ground-army.html</a>
A smart-object recognition algorithm that doesn’t need humans
<a href="http://www.kurzweilai.net/a-smart-object-recognition-algorithm-that-doesnt-need-humans" target="_blank" rel="nofollow" >http://www.kurzweilai.net/a-smart-object-recognition-algorithm-that-doesnt-need-humans</a>
This crime-predicting robot aims to patrol our streets by 2015 | Cutting Edge - CNET News
<a href="http://news.cnet.com/8301-11386_3-57614255-76/this-crime-predicting-robot-aims-to-patrol-our-streets-by-2015/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow" >http://news.cnet.com/8301-11386_3-57614255-76/this-crime-predicting-robot-aims-to-patrol-our-streets-by-2015/</a>
Would you have sex with a ROBOT? Japanese designers create virtual reality experience that lets men get intimate with Manga characters
<a href="http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-2507186/Would-sex-ROBOT-Japanese-designers-create-virtual-reality-experience-lets-men-intimate-Manga-characters.html" target="_blank" rel="nofollow" >http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-2507186/Would-sex-ROBOT-Japanese-designers-create-virtual-reality-experience-lets-men-intimate-Manga-characters.html</a>
Realistic Sex Robot
<a href="http://www.discoveryfitandhealth.com/sexual-health/videos/first-sex-robot.htm" target="_blank" rel="nofollow" >http://www.discoveryfitandhealth.com/sexual-health/videos/first-sex-robot.htm</a>
A Wikipedia for robots
<a href="http://www.kurzweilai.net/a-wiki-for-robots" target="_blank" rel="nofollow" >http://www.kurzweilai.net/a-wiki-for-robots</a>
1 Million Robots To Replace 1 Million Human Jobs At Foxconn? First Robots Have Arrived.
<a href="http://singularityhub.com/2012/11/12/1-million-robots-to-replace-1-million-human-jobs-at-foxconn-first-robots-have-arrived/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow" >http://singularityhub.com/2012/11/12/1-million-robots-to-replace-1-million-human-jobs-at-foxconn-first-robots-have-arrived/</a>
Meet "Baxter" the Robot Out to Get Your Minimum-Wage, No Benefits, Part-Time Job, Because He's Still Much Cheaper; Fed Cannot Win a Fight Against Robots
Read more at <a href="http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2013/01/meet-baxter-robot-out-to-get-your.html#8VRd4u6hvevtjILt.99" target="_blank" rel="nofollow" >http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2013/01/meet-baxter-robot-out-to-get-your.html#8VRd4u6hvevtjILt.99</a>
Squarepusher Explores ‘Emotional Machine Music’ With 78-Fingered Robot Guitarist
<a href="http://singularityhub.com/2014/03/01/squarepusher-explores-emotional-machine-music-with-78-fingered-robot-guitarist/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow" >http://singularityhub.com/2014/03/01/squarepusher-explores-emotional-machine-music-with-78-fingered-robot-guitarist/</a>
Robotic-assisted prostate surgery offers better cancer control, study finds
<a href="http://www.kurzweilai.net/robotic-assisted-prostate-surgery-offers-better-cancer-control-study-finds" target="_blank" rel="nofollow" >http://www.kurzweilai.net/robotic-assisted-prostate-surgery-offers-better-cancer-control-study-finds</a>
US Army Studying Replacing Thousands of Grunts with Robots
<a href="http://www.defensenews.com/article/20140120/DEFREG02/301200035/US-Army-Studying-Replacing-Thousands-Grunts-Robots" target="_blank" rel="nofollow" >http://www.defensenews.com/article/20140120/DEFREG02/301200035/US-Army-Studying-Replacing-Thousands-Grunts-Robots</a>
Driverless Cars, Meet Captainless Ships: Autonomous Vehicles To Take To The Sea
<a href="http://singularityhub.com/2014/03/18/driverless-cars-meet-captainless-ships-autonomous-vehicles-to-take-to-the-sea/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow" >http://singularityhub.com/2014/03/18/driverless-cars-meet-captainless-ships-autonomous-vehicles-to-take-to-the-sea/</a>
A Chinese Company 3D Printed 10 Houses In A Day
<a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/a-chinese-company-3d-printed-10-houses-in-a-day-2014-4" target="_blank" rel="nofollow" >http://www.businessinsider.com/a-chinese-company-3d-printed-10-houses-in-a-day-2014-4</a>
Google: Driverless cars are mastering city streets
<a href="http://apnews.myway.com/article/20140428/DADF4A6G0.html" target="_blank" rel="nofollow" >http://apnews.myway.com/article/20140428/DADF4A6G0.html</a>http://www.businessinsider.com/c/53b493216bb3f751508c2a5cRobotenomicsWed, 02 Jul 2014 19:17:53 -0400http://www.businessinsider.com/c/53b493216bb3f751508c2a5c
You are right... in the coming weeks I will publish more extracts from the study per market sector and show different impacts (e.g. Amazon, decline in retail stores but other impacts e.g. eBooks, digital music, etc). I am totally aligned with you on "pure-capitalist idealists." This bugs the proverbial out of me...http://www.businessinsider.com/c/53b4863e6da811a248e3ac7avafer2kWed, 02 Jul 2014 18:22:54 -0400http://www.businessinsider.com/c/53b4863e6da811a248e3ac7a
Thank you. The big qualifier is that the job creation from robotics is happening *today* (growing new markets) but you state that for the long term, it won't. The way Dylan presents this article, makes it sound like robots are net job creation. Perhaps for dramatic effect. In your orig article, you recognize the long term view is that it's not.
The amazon, tesla, drones examples are in new, growing markets - which displace many more jobs as they strive for efficiency. Better to look at established markets like the auto industry, where the introduction of robots, I suspect, was net negative in job creation.
To be clear. I am pro-efficiencty, robots, software, etc. What worries me is the lack of empathy the pure-capitalist idealists.http://www.businessinsider.com/c/53b472776bb3f72f5a8c2a60RobotenomicsWed, 02 Jul 2014 16:58:31 -0400http://www.businessinsider.com/c/53b472776bb3f72f5a8c2a60
Incidentally see this post on robots and journalism - <a href="http://theweek.com//article/index/261774/could-a-robot-do-my-job" target="_blank" rel="nofollow" >http://theweek.com//article/index/261774/could-a-robot-do-my-job</a>http://www.businessinsider.com/c/53b463be6bb3f7f1268c2a5arobotenomicsWed, 02 Jul 2014 15:55:42 -0400http://www.businessinsider.com/c/53b463be6bb3f7f1268c2a5a
It is a 'good list' -- quite a few of those losses are put down to 3D printers. Yet 3D printers are also said to herald the maker revolution.
Overall I think corporations that amass vast wealth will still need consumerism - hence my belief that more Gates Foundation type institutions will employ people - Eric Schmidt writes something similar in his book as did Jeremy Rifkin to some extent in his 1995 book No More Work.http://www.businessinsider.com/c/53b45b196bb3f7657d8c2a5ajjhikesWed, 02 Jul 2014 15:18:49 -0400http://www.businessinsider.com/c/53b45b196bb3f7657d8c2a5a
I see that "Stock clerks and order fillers" made boston.com's list: "30 of the fastest declining occupations"
A good list overall, with I'd say 20 of 30 of the job segments casualties of automation.http://www.businessinsider.com/c/53b45990eab8ea0a2e331821RobotenomicsWed, 02 Jul 2014 15:12:16 -0400http://www.businessinsider.com/c/53b45990eab8ea0a2e331821
I spend my days thinking about 'rethinking the economic system' you are so right.. it is a major concern and certainly policy is short term thinking - I'm deeply worried about the overall impact. As for this creative thinking - to me that is certain people making lazy assumptions if not necessarily self-serving notions.http://www.businessinsider.com/c/53b458b369bedd8515e18530RobotenomicsWed, 02 Jul 2014 15:08:35 -0400http://www.businessinsider.com/c/53b458b369bedd8515e18530
It is a very good point and one we carefully considered in assessing sector by sector and in the majority of cases yes - jobs have increased sector wide, some have not (Amazon is a prime example but so many other factors at play there too - e.g. electronic books). I'll publish more of the data in the coming weeks to show the sectors assessed and job situations.http://www.businessinsider.com/c/53b454e96da811185fe3ac7bfredlledWed, 02 Jul 2014 14:52:25 -0400http://www.businessinsider.com/c/53b454e96da811185fe3ac7b
How much "creativity" makes for a viable living, especially when it depends on the 25%-30% who are still employed?http://www.businessinsider.com/c/53b4517eeab8ea210e331821jjhikesWed, 02 Jul 2014 14:37:50 -0400http://www.businessinsider.com/c/53b4517eeab8ea210e331821
Say I have a human powered pin making company, which employs 1000. Amapin comes along, invests in robots, hires 100, and drives me out of business. No one should say "robots went in, jobs went up" because there were 100 hires at Amapin. You need to go sector wide to make the case.
Now, in sectors with increasing robotics, are sector wide employment figures rising?http://www.businessinsider.com/c/53b450af6da811654de3ac7aunleased creativityWed, 02 Jul 2014 14:34:23 -0400http://www.businessinsider.com/c/53b450af6da811654de3ac7a
It will be important to unleash creativity, because as of today we have no clue what kind of socio-economic system will have to replace the current "work-for-living" Capitalism.http://www.businessinsider.com/c/53b44f5fecad04de66d8477fEmployees are a bigger pain in the ass than clientsWed, 02 Jul 2014 14:28:47 -0400http://www.businessinsider.com/c/53b44f5fecad04de66d8477f
Sure.. clients pay you, for employees you pay. Robots are the sweet spot of joy.http://www.businessinsider.com/c/53b4490e6da8111127e3ac81Steven CWed, 02 Jul 2014 14:01:50 -0400http://www.businessinsider.com/c/53b4490e6da8111127e3ac81
We are in agreement on many points. What scares me is that automation will be a necessity instead of an option in the coming future. If company A begins to automate their process, company B will be forced to do the same in order to compete if it's in the same industry. Any company refusing to do this will be left behind and, eventually, out of business. This is just basic competitive strategy and there won't be anything that the companies can do about it no matter how much they wish to keep their employees.
Deep down inside I would like to think that people such as Marc Andreessen, Erik Brynijolfsson, and Andrew McAfee are correct in their assumption that there will be something for us left to do but I don't see this happening in the long run. They already have software that can write news articles (Narrative Science being one) and compose music (though not well but that will change with time). Relying on the idea that human creativity will trump robots and software isn't realistic.
In the short term, there is still something for us to do. In the long term, however, we are really going to need to rethink our economic system in order to keep things going. Given that our system is based on short term thinking (the financial crisis is a good example), we're going to be in a bit of trouble before we know it.http://www.businessinsider.com/c/53b442056da8110105e3ac7aRobotenomicsWed, 02 Jul 2014 13:31:49 -0400http://www.businessinsider.com/c/53b442056da8110105e3ac7a
That is exactly the point I (Colin Lewis) make in my original article - but what I see in the factories and in the robot manufacturers is not in line with the hype... jobs will eventually be displaced but the opposite is happening today - the robot industry is creating jobs.
Software (which I do not categorize as robotics) is making vast numbers of jobs redundant today.http://www.businessinsider.com/c/53b44148eab8ea6f50331821robotenomicsWed, 02 Jul 2014 13:28:40 -0400http://www.businessinsider.com/c/53b44148eab8ea6f50331821
I'm in agreement with you on so many points - ha - I even wrote 'I believe this time is different.' There are no easy answers,one economic professor says be sure to own shares in the co's that own the robots, Piketty says beware of those that own the robots, there is the basic income debate. I think we will see more not for profits employing people - like the Gates Foundation... The tech advances I see in the labs are trull astounding , but I do think it will take some time/decades - industrial robots are still quite low in real terms, even though they have advanced considerably and as you say prices are reducing.
Automation worries me - I saw first hand 80,000 jobs go in the insurance sector due to internet based insurance take-up.
Then on the other hand we have had Siri and the likes for several years and usage of those 'vertical assistants' is woefully low - people are not used to speaking into machines - so it will take a few more years before Google Now and other AI assistants show there full potential... this time is different.
The work on robotics is truly advancing and in most of the companies they are ramping up staff, few drone manufacturers use robots to make drones (especially the smaller ones) sure it will come - but not for a while yet... it's just not happening at the speed implied in the press when I visit the manufacturers.http://www.businessinsider.com/c/53b440426da8115e7fe3ac7avafer2kWed, 02 Jul 2014 13:24:18 -0400http://www.businessinsider.com/c/53b440426da8115e7fe3ac7a
Colin Lewis has it completely wrong.
Robots will displace jobs that can be automated. The losses won't be made up - at least not very quickly. That's math.
Efficiency will increase.
Yes, Marc Andreessen, it will "unleash" our creativity but many will be left behind as they are not as smart as you. And BTW, the recent hubris you've obtained the few past years... you've lost your grounding.
The elite will benefit. Nothing wrong w/ elite. I do not like elitist.
I love robots. I love efficiency. But what we do w/ those left behind will define our humanity.http://www.businessinsider.com/c/53b43c046da8116169e3ac7afloridiotWed, 02 Jul 2014 13:06:12 -0400http://www.businessinsider.com/c/53b43c046da8116169e3ac7a
Employees are a bigger pain in the ass than clients.http://www.businessinsider.com/c/53b43581eab8ea6e2433181fjjhikesWed, 02 Jul 2014 12:38:25 -0400http://www.businessinsider.com/c/53b43581eab8ea6e2433181f
In the past, automation was both expensive and narrow. A pin making machine cost much more than a worker, initially, but made it back in volume. The displaced pin makers were few, and either found new work, or disappeared into unemployment statistics (if there were such). A little later someone invents a sock making machine, and so on.
This kind of piecemeal replacement was both slow and expensive. It gave people time to invent new desires and new occupations to provide them.
Let's imagine an alternate world though. What if instead of a pin machine, something else happened. Let's say that in 1835 John Howe had invented a "mechanical man" that could, at moderate cost, undertake a great number of tasks.
What would employment look like today? Would there even be personal trainers?http://www.businessinsider.com/c/53b431416bb3f7da638c2a5cSteven CWed, 02 Jul 2014 12:20:17 -0400http://www.businessinsider.com/c/53b431416bb3f7da638c2a5c
Thanks for your reply. In my opinion, I think that you are being a bit optimistic when you advise people to see employment in robotic companies even if we are still talking about the physical machines. I'm reminded of Rethink Robotics Baxter who, once created, was put to work creating other Baxters. One of the common arguments that I hear when I talk about this topic is "Someone is going to have to build/fix the robots when they break down." which I believe to be a little short-sighted.
I also think we are in agreement that this surge in job creation when robots is a temporary thing. I'd honestly be surprised to see it last even a couple decades as the technology becomes cheaper, faster, and overall better. I'm also not a subscriber to the economic idea that new jobs will emerge to take the place of the jobs lost. I believe this time really is different.http://www.businessinsider.com/c/53b427ac6da8117f09e3ac7aRobotenomicsWed, 02 Jul 2014 11:39:24 -0400http://www.businessinsider.com/c/53b427ac6da8117f09e3ac7a
Totally agree with you and that is the gist of the article - The fact — automation is driving technological unemployment, jobs are being obliterated, which I have shown with detailed analysis of various sectors in several posts. But so far companies that implement robots (a mechanical hardware and software device that incorporates movement/action) are actually adding jobs. I do agree this is a short term probability and the number of jobs may not exceed 1 million in robot manufacturers plus other jobs in companies that instal robotics - but as I say in the article and in other posts this is unlikely to last for beyond maybe a couple of decades.
I think a clear distinction needs to be drawn between robots and software automation without mechanical movement -- robots get bad press when in fact the jobs 'pure robots' are doing is helping the economy. Of course in the long run it is the shareholders of companies that own the robots that will benefit, but in the short term people would be well advised to seek employment in robotic companies.http://www.businessinsider.com/c/53b4264a69bedda57ce18532Steven CWed, 02 Jul 2014 11:33:30 -0400http://www.businessinsider.com/c/53b4264a69bedda57ce18532
Thanks for the correction. You're right. This is a process that has been taking place for a long time now. The only difference is that it is now speeding up at an exponential rate due to the advances in technology once thought to be confined to science fiction. To see where it goes is going to be rather interesting.http://www.businessinsider.com/c/53b4226d6bb3f7692f8c2a5anot hardWed, 02 Jul 2014 11:17:01 -0400http://www.businessinsider.com/c/53b4226d6bb3f7692f8c2a5a
It's not hard... it's impossible.http://www.businessinsider.com/c/53b422116da8114b6fe3ac7atherealgregWed, 02 Jul 2014 11:15:29 -0400http://www.businessinsider.com/c/53b422116da8114b6fe3ac7a
You mean "have been". Telephone operators, Travel Agents, Secretaries, Draftsmen, Sales Clerks/Cashiers, Postal Workers, Book Keepers, Tax Accountants highly impacted or all but gone and certainly "going". Stock brokers, lawyers, drivers of all kinds, reporters, marketing professionals, software developers probably next.http://www.businessinsider.com/c/53b421c7eab8ea0258331824The only reason we have human labor todayWed, 02 Jul 2014 11:14:15 -0400http://www.businessinsider.com/c/53b421c7eab8ea0258331824
If a company can save a single dollar by automating a job and get the same result - they will always chose automation over human labor.
There is no economic incentive to do any other way.
The only reason we have human labor today is because a certain task can not be automated yet or the cost of automation is higher than the cost of labor. Period.
People claiming that automation is not eliminating human labor should prove first that the claim above is incorrect.
Then they should prove that as a tendency, automation is not able to complete more and more complete tasks and achieving to complete complex tasks by automation will always be more expensive than human labor.
Good luck with any of it.http://www.businessinsider.com/c/53b41f536bb3f796208c2a5arobots help companies to growWed, 02 Jul 2014 11:03:47 -0400http://www.businessinsider.com/c/53b41f536bb3f796208c2a5a
Useless research... totally ignores that robots help the growth of those companies, that's why they need to hire more people, to cope with the growth.
This growth will finance a new wave of deployment of robots to eliminate the next round of human labor.
This process will go on in cycles - in the mean time, companies who fall behind automation are just going to die.
The same will happen with "researchers", who can not connect the dots. Some software will do it.http://www.businessinsider.com/c/53b41dfe6da8112059e3ac7cREIGuyWed, 02 Jul 2014 10:58:06 -0400http://www.businessinsider.com/c/53b41dfe6da8112059e3ac7c
I agree! Ban refrigerators! Bring back the milk man and ice man! #StayAmishMyFriendshttp://www.businessinsider.com/c/53b41d0deab8eade46331826Steven CWed, 02 Jul 2014 10:54:05 -0400http://www.businessinsider.com/c/53b41d0deab8eade46331826
Another author missing the bigger picture. He's still defining "robots" as "big physical machines that do work." This is a very limited definition that needs to be expanded to include software that is easily doing the knowledge work that was once the domain of human beings. When the idea that robots will take our jobs is discussed, it isn't that people think that a physical 1950's "Robbie the Robot" is going to be their accountant but that the software and AI is becoming so advanced that a human being will no longer be necessary to do that job. This software, in large part, is what will be taking the place of human employment and not just a physical machine.http://www.businessinsider.com/c/53b4184b69bedde32be18531D JWed, 02 Jul 2014 10:33:47 -0400http://www.businessinsider.com/c/53b4184b69bedde32be18531
It's hard to compete with the ~99% up-time and accuracy a robot/computer has.http://www.businessinsider.com/c/53b417ef6da8115a3be3ac7atherealgregWed, 02 Jul 2014 10:32:15 -0400http://www.businessinsider.com/c/53b417ef6da8115a3be3ac7a
Had the same exact reaction as others. This "study" was obviously contrived to market a perspective, not performed to learn something new. In this case someone wants us to think automation is good for everyone. Obviously they purposely conflate "job creation" in one company with "job creation" across a whole industry thereby masking the likelihood that the increased hiring by companies implementing automation is at the expense of other companies losing business to them. I wouldn't be surprised if a more honest and comprehensive study showed something in the vein of 70%+ reductions in employed humans due to companies like Amazon.
It's time to come to grips with a brain-hurting reality. Automating crap people don't really want to do is ultimately a great thing. It's the utopian dream of a technological future. Doing so in a Capitalist economy turns that dream into a dystopian nightmare where 30% of us that are needed/lucky/skilled get to work at more interesting things, work 60 hours a week and reap great rewards and the 70% are rendered mostly valueless and get jack.
Automation + capitalism = tragedy because capitalism assumes scarcity of labor and an unlimited horizon of things we need people to do. Automation is eliminating the need for labor faster than our brightest people are inventing new categories of goods and services for people to want (and that need labor to create).
One solution is to look at the two benefits of capitalism.
Benefit 1: Incent workers
Benefit 2: Make producers of goods and services beholden to consumers
1 is rapidly becoming obsolete. 2 remains essential or you end up with soviet style government enterprises telling you what you get to have. One possible answer given this is a tax on people who work or on businesses that allows for a national base minimum income (no means test) for everyone (in lieu of all government run social services).
Going to be an interesting ride to the new normal.http://www.businessinsider.com/c/53b41435ecad04ba7dd8477cJim SWed, 02 Jul 2014 10:16:21 -0400http://www.businessinsider.com/c/53b41435ecad04ba7dd8477c
"Yes big firm with robots can hire and have more workers, the truth is that they do it at the expense of smaller companies made noncompetitive by the use of robots, where all jobs are finally destroyed..."
Exactly. Very poor research to look at Amazon and Tesla and say, oh it's okay then.http://www.businessinsider.com/c/53b40f566da811b415e3ac80OutsiderWed, 02 Jul 2014 09:55:34 -0400http://www.businessinsider.com/c/53b40f566da811b415e3ac80
It really depends upon the industry. A good number of broadcast stations in the US are fully automated. Even more are overnight. One doesn't transition from broadcast engineering to robotics that easily. And yes, the number of air talent, technical and news positions are far fewer. These are not unskilled jobs.http://www.businessinsider.com/c/53b40f436bb3f7ee658c2a5eitsmeWed, 02 Jul 2014 09:55:15 -0400http://www.businessinsider.com/c/53b40f436bb3f7ee658c2a5e
This "robots will not kill jobs but unleash creativity" is the ultimate BS...
You're confusing jobs concentration and jobs expansion.
Yes big firm with robots can hire and have more workers, the truth is that they do it at the expense of smaller companies made noncompetitive by the use of robots, where all jobs are finally destroyed...
There will be an arms race toward robotization, and people will lose to machines.
When this happens, how will people earn their lives ???
These problems should be resolved prior to the generalization of the robots use, or we'll have a very dark future...