Ranking all 32 NFL QB situations

[Editor’s note: This article was updated following the Jets’ re-signing of quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick, moving New York’s QB situation from No. 32 to No. 26 in the ranking.]

As we look forward to the 2016 season, the team of PFF analysts is going to determine exactly where teams are situated when it comes to their personnel. Quarterback is a strange position group because the emphasis is almost entirely on the starter. This is a league where many teams don’t have a starter they are happy with, never mind a backup, so the impact the second or third guy has on an overall situation has quite possibly never been so low.

With that in mind, we aren’t looking at every QB currently on the roster, but only at those that are likely to have something to say about the first two spots on the depth chart.

1. Green Bay Packers

Starter: Aaron Rodgers

Backup: Brett Hundley

Key stat: Rodgers completed 60.1 percent of his passes last season, down 5.1 percent from 2014, and 6.4 percent from 2013.

Things did not go well for Aaron Rodgers in 2015, but he is still the top quarterback in the league at his best, and pretty much everybody at PFF expects him to bounce back in the season to come now that he has his top target back in action (Jordy Nelson), and he can regain the trust he lost in his receivers over the year. In 2014, he was comfortably the best-graded passer in the league and there isn’t any reason he can’t get back to that kind of level. Behind him is Brett Hundley, a talented athlete that many are high on, but a player that did not “wow” in grading terms in his final college season.

2. New England Patriots

Starter: Tom Brady (suspended four games)

Backup: Jimmy Garoppolo

Key stat: Brady led the NFL with the lowest interception rate last season (1.1 percent).

Tom Brady is playing arguably the best football of his career—despite his advancing years—and put together a real case for MVP last season, given that the Patriots’ offensive line in front of him was not stellar, and he lost many key weapons around him throughout the year. He runs the offensive system as well as any quarterback in football, and is vital to its smooth operation. If his four-game suspension holds up, the Patriots will be starting Jimmy Garoppolo for that stretch, and will likely only be reminded of how integral Brady is to the success and efficiency of that system.

3. Pittsburgh Steelers

Starter: Ben Roethlisberger

Backup: Landry Jones

Key stat: Roethlisberger led the NFL in deep accuracy last season, with 50.7 percent of his deep (20+ air yards) passes catchable.

Ben Roethlisberger is another quarterback playing the best football of his career, despite beginning to get up there in years. He is now 34 years old, but completed 68.0 percent of his passes in 2015 and formed a nearly-unstoppable combination with WR Antonio Brown. Roethlisberger has developed into a quarterback capable of making all types of throws, but may not be quite as durable and capable of taking the hits he invites by extending plays as he was during his younger years. If he gets forced to miss time, the Steelers are not in nearly as good shape, with Landry Jones proven to be a major drop-off, and about the only thing that can slow down Brown’s dominance.

4. Carolina Panthers

Starter: Cam Newton

Backup: Derek Anderson

Key stat: Newton used play-action on 29.8 percent of passes, more than any other QB.

Cam Newton won the NFL MVP award last season, but it wasn’t a dominant campaign from start to finish. Instead, it was one in which he consistently improved throughout the year, ending the season absolutely on fire, and even playing pretty well against insurmountable odds in the Super Bowl game that will only be remembered for his failure to fall on a football. Newton is a unique package of passing talent, size, and athleticism that makes him a running threat unlike any other QB. If he can repeat his 2015 performance—or even hit the ground running at the level he left off—look out. Derek Anderson started two games in 2014, but hasn’t played for a significant stretch since 2010. He is capable of good performances, but the longer he is in, the less likely the result is to be positive for Carolina.

5. Seattle Seahawks

Starter: Russell Wilson

Backup: Trevone Boykin

Key stat: Wilson led the NFL last season with a passer rating of 105.5 on plays where the time to throw was 2.6+ seconds.

Russell Wilson has always been more than the game-managing quarterback his critics label him as. In 2015, he was the sixth-highest-graded QB in the league with an 85.5 mark and had excellent numbers across the board. When you add in his ability to make plays with his legs, both designed and when scrambling, you have one of the tougher players in the league to contain. Nowhere was that better illustrated than in the playoff game against Minnesota, whose defense suffocated Seattle virtually all game, but lost control of Wilson for just a few seconds and he punished them for a touchdown that was ultimately the difference. Long-time backup Tarvaris Jackson has departed, and rookie Trevone Boykin is currently the No. 2 QB on the Seahawks’ roster. Boykin earned the seventh-highest passing grade in the FBS last year.

6. Arizona Cardinals

Starter: Carson Palmer

Backup: Drew Stanton

Key stat: Palmer led the NFL in average depth of target last season, at 11.3 yards downfield.

Carson Palmer is ironically a question mark coming off the best season of his career and a truly staggering MVP-level performance. The question is whether or not he can come anywhere close to repeating that production level in 2016; last year was so far above his career baseline that you almost have to assume that it’s an anomaly, even if this offense in Arizona is perfectly-suited to his skills. His playoff implosion only further muddies the waters. Last season, Palmer completed 63.7 percent of his passes, despite leading the league with an average depth of target of 11.3, 3 yards higher than that of Tom Brady or Derek Carr. If he goes down, the Cardinals will turn to Drew Stanton, who floundered badly in 2014 when he started eight games.

7. New Orleans Saints

Starter: Drew Brees

Backup: Luke McCown

Key stat: Brees was second in the NFL in deep accuracy at 50.6 percent, just 0.1 percent behind Roethlisberger.

Drew Brees is still an excellent passer, even if he isn’t quite what he once was at his career-best. Last season, he was PFF’s fourth-highest-graded QB overall with an 87.6 mark, and was still one of the league’s most accurate passers, completing 68.3 percent of his throws and a ridiculous 73.9 percent when not pressured. Only Blake Bortles completed more deep passes than Brees, who was second in the league in deep accuracy, putting the ball where it needed to be on 50.6 percent of those passes. The Saints’ receiving corps has been eroded a little over the past few years, but if they can get a bit more help, then Brees could take a step back towards his best form. Luke McCown is a capable backup, but won’t soften the blow of losing Brees much should he be called upon.

8. Atlanta Falcons

Starter: Matt Ryan

Backup: Matt Schaub

Key stat: Ryan’s receivers recorded 37 dropped passes in 2015, more than all but three QBs.

Matt Ryan is a victim of the lack of nuance people want to treat player evaluation with. He is neither an All-Pro, nor is he garbage, but rather lives in the shades of gray in between. Ryan is a good quarterback that makes some bad mistakes, and has cost his team in some crucial situations. On the flip side, he has also dug them out of a hole at times, but because of his lofty draft status and the fact that he may never become the next Tom Brady, he will always be seen as a disappointment by some. Last season, he completed 59.0 percent of his passes even under pressure, and remains a quarterback few teams would pass over as an upgrade at the position.

9. Indianapolis Colts

Starter: Andrew Luck

Backup: Scott Tolzien

Key stat: Luck earned the lowest PFF passing grade in the NFL last season, at 43.6.

Even ignoring the injury, Andrew Luck was bad last season. The Colts had been relying on the strategy that he could paper over all the cracks on that offense, and for whatever reason, that stopped being true in 2015, and Luck became part of the bigger problem. He has never hit the heights of his draft status, but he has shown flashes of being that obscenely-good prospect, and stretches of play where he has single-handedly carried the team in a way few QBs can manage. The Colts hope to learn from last season, and have made steps to improve the surrounding talent, so if Luck can step back towards his best, this is where he belongs, with the potential to move higher up the list in the future.

10. Cincinnati Bengals

Starter: Andy Dalton

Backup: A.J. McCarron

Key stat: Dalton led the NFL in passer rating (106.2) for the season.

Up until last season, Andy Dalton’s career had been characterized as the “Dalton-coaster”—seasons punctuated by massive highs and lows that ultimately jumped and sank to an average overall grade. 2015 saw a change in that; the highs were more consistent, and the lows were far less egregious. In the end, the Bengals ended up in the same place because an injury robbed him of taking his best form into the playoffs, but this version of Dalton was a good starting quarterback. Was this a sign of improvement, or just a good year? In his stead, A.J. McCarron showed flashes of ability, but was a disaster in the playoffs against Pittsburgh. At his best, he is a backup that can come in and win a couple of games before your starter returns, which is still an upgrade over most No. 2 QBs.

11. Oakland Raiders

Starter: Derek Carr

Backup: Matthew McGloin

Key stat: Carr jumped from the 38th-best graded QB in the league as a rookie to No. 10 in year two.

Derek Carr may be on the verge of great things. The step he made between his first and second seasons in the league was massive, and he ended 2015 with a top-10 PFF grade at the position. If he can take another step forward in his third season, he will jump immediately into the conversation with some of the better QBs in the game, and the Raiders are surrounding him with the kind of supporting cast to enable him to do that, both in terms of protection and passing weaponry. Carr made some of the best throws of the season last year, and his potential is exciting for a franchise that hasn’t had a legitimate stud under center since Rich Gannon.

12. San Diego Chargers

Starter: Philip Rivers

Backup: Kellen Clemens

Key stat: Only four QBs were pressured more than the 39.7 percent of dropbacks Rivers felt heat on last season.

Philip Rivers at his best is a fantastic quarterback, but is now 34 years old and has performed steadily worse over the past two seasons. The situation in San Diego has pretty much matched that decline, so it’s far from all on him, but the question remains of how good he can be this late in his career. The most worrying red flag about Rivers’ play is that when kept clean in the pocket in 2015, his play was not good. He had a passer rating of 100.8 on such plays, but much of that was due to work after the catch from his receivers; his PFF grade was actually below-average. This is the area of the game where even the worst QBs typically grade positively, and Rivers wasn’t excelling. When blitzed, his grade was extremely poor, and this again is an area where experienced QBs typically perform well. Right now, his performance is trending downwards, but the top of this list is full of QBs of the same age or older, so maybe he can turn it around.

13. Dallas Cowboys

Starter: Tony Romo

Backup: Kellen Moore, Dak Prescott

Key stat: Romo had a passer rating of 27.2 against the Panthers at the time he was knocked from the game and shut down for the year.

Tony Romo is one of the good-but-not-great quarterbacks, and another that is getting up in years, having turned 36 in April. Last season was a disaster between getting injured, playing poorly, and trying to come back only to get hurt again, but he is only a year removed from genuine quality play, and the Dallas offense is set up for him to be more of a passenger than ever before. The Cowboys have the best run-blocking line in football, and drafted a potential workhorse running back in Ezekiel Elliott at No. 4 overall. This is a team that should be able to pound opponents into submission and use Romo only for surgical aerial strikes off the back of that ground game. At this point, though, durability has to be a concern, and the options behind him are not good, with a developmental rookie, Dak Prescott, and Kellen Moore waiting in the wings.

14. Buffalo Bills

Starter: Tyrod Taylor

Backup: E.J. Manuel, Cardale Jones

Key stat: Taylor gained 566 rushing yards last season, 405 of which came on QB scrambles.

Tyrod Taylor was a revelation last season for the Bills, who entered camp with a QB competition involving Matt Cassel and E.J. Manuel. Taylor was supposed to be an afterthought, but he won the job and was impressive during the regular season, making plays with his legs and hitting on some of the best passes thrown by any QB in the NFL. The question is whether that’s as good as he can get, or whether there is more development left in him after a year as a starter. If he can improve the intermediate efficiency of his game, Taylor can become an excellent QB, but there is no guarantee he can. Taylor is still too reliant on his legs for impact plays, with 566 rushing yards last season, 405 of which came from scrambles on passing plays. Those are obviously positive additions, but they illustrate a tendency to take off and a potential inability to make enough plays with his arm so far.

15. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Starter: Jameis Winston

Backup: Mike Glennon

Key stat: Winston completed only 58.4 percent of his passes last season, the 33rd-highest rate in the NFL.

If you take out the opening game, Jameis Winston’s grade would have threatened the top-10 last season in his rookie year. He had two more poor games against one of the league’s best defenses in Carolina, and outside of that, he looked like a very good player, with some extreme highs and not a lot else to dislike. Winston has always had the potential to have a bad day at the office, and I suspect those won’t ever entirely disappear, but if he can eliminate one or two of them over a season, he will quickly become a very good QB. Those three games account for more than half of his 15 interceptions on the year (eight), and he had seven games in which he didn’t turn the ball over. Mike Glennon was supposed to be hot trade property with Winston arriving, and while that hasn’t materialized, the reasons for it remain, as he has shown the ability to start and win games.

16. Minnesota Vikings

Starter: Teddy Bridgewater

Backup: Shaun Hill

Key stat: Bridgewater led the NFL in adjusted completion percentage last season, at 79.3 percent.

Minnesota’s situation may be the biggest example of scheme overriding talent in the NFL right now. In the right scheme, Teddy Bridgewater could be an excellent NFL QB, but the offense run by Norv Turner has so far been badly-tailored to his skill-set. In 2015, Bridgewater had the highest adjusted completion percentage in the NFL (after drops, etc., are taken into account, and in 2014, he was the most-accurate QB in the league under pressure. What he doesn’t do well is attack deep, with 22 QBs posting a better accuracy percentage than his 37.5 percent this past season. If the Vikings develop their offense to more suit Bridgewater’s strengths, he could drag them up this list quickly, but without it, he is likely mired in mediocrity overall.

17. Washington Redskins

Starter: Kirk Cousins

Backup: Colt McCoy

Key stat: Cousins led the NFL in completion percentage last season, at 69.8 percent.

2015 was a year of QBs coming from seemingly nowhere to have very strong seasons. Kirk Cousins stepped out of the RG III shadow in Washington and led the league in completion percentage, at 69.8 percent. He was aided by having one of the lower average depths of target, at 8.2 yards per throw, just behind Tom Brady at 8.3, but accuracy and efficiency were the hallmarks of his year. Even adjusting for drops, etc., Cousins trailed only Teddy Bridgewater for completion percentage, and while his turnover rate had been colossal before 2015, his interception percentage dropped to a far-more-reasonable 2.0 percent from above 4.0 in every previous year. There were still enough question marks that Washington can’t be sure he’s a stud going forwards, which is why he was franchise tagged, but the signs from 2015 were certainly good. Colt McCoy is seen as an able backup, but realistically is unlikely to play well if given the chance (based on his career history).

18. Jacksonville Jaguars

Starter: Blake Bortles

Backup: Chad Henne

Key stat: Bortles has yet to top 60 percent in completion percentage in the NFL over a season.

Blake Bortles took a huge leap forward in his second season, much like Derek Carr, but while his improvement may have actually been greater, his overall play wasn’t as good at the end of it. Bortles made some big plays, but was an average passer overall in year two, completing just 58.6 percent of his passes and leading the league in interceptions. His best work actually came with his legs, where he averaged 9.3 yards per scramble and seemed to pick up a first down every time he took off. Bortles took such a big step forward in his play between years one and two that his ultimate ceiling is still undefined, but if he can develop even more this season, he will drag the Jags higher up this list. Chad Henne is likely occupying a roster spot purely through familiarity with the system, because the last time he saw the field, he was bad enough to be pulled for a rookie Bortles that the team knew wasn’t ready and wanted to sit the whole year.

19. Kansas City Chiefs

Starter: Alex Smith

Backup: Aaron Murray

Key stat: Smith recorded the league’s fourth-best interception percentage last season, at just 1.5 percent of pass attempts.

There may be no more game-managing QB in the league than Alex Smith. This is often thrown at players as a derogatory term, but in reality, if you have that kind of consistent ceiling and floor, you can at least plan and build around that, and the Chiefs have been able to win a lot of games that way. Last season, Smith had two very bad games—one against the league’s best defense, Denver—but was otherwise consistently above-average almost every single week. He also made better use of his athleticism than he had in the past, with 435 rushing yards coming on scrambles, at 7.6 yards per scramble.

20. New York Giants

Starter: Eli Manning

Backup: Ryan Nassib

Key stat: Manning had eight potential interceptions dropped by opponents last season to go along with 14 that were actually picked off.

Statistically, last season was arguably Eli Manning’s best, but the tape doesn’t paint nearly as pretty of a picture. He still made a lot of awful decisions, with only five QBs throwing more interceptions over the year than Manning’s 14, and he had eight more turnover-worthy throws that were dropped by defenders. When he was playing his best football in 2011, his play under pressure was incredible, but this past season it was poor, completing less than 50 percent of his passes for only 6.0 yards per attempt, down 1.7 yards on his passes from a clean pocket. His backup is Ryan Nassib, whose career is 25 snaps old, so at least he is under no pressure for his job.

21. Miami Dolphins

Starter: Ryan Tannehill

Backup: Matt Moore

Key stat: Tannehill completed 61.9 percent of his passes in 2015, down 4.5 percent from the season before.

At one point, it looked like Ryan Tannehill could rival any QB from his draft class—a class that included Andrew Luck—but he has regressed since then, and last season was distinctly mediocre (at best). He had one excellent game against the Titans, but outside of that, he was more consistently bad than good, and was particularly inefficient underneath, despite having a weapon in Jarvis Landry that excels in that area. Tannehill has shown the ability to be far better than this, but right now, his play is heading in the wrong direction. Matt Moore was once one of the league’s best backup QBs, but he hasn’t played meaningful snaps since Tannehill was drafted, so it’s impossible to stay if he is still at that level.

22. Chicago Bears

Starter: Jay Cutler

Backup: Brian Hoyer

Key stat: Cutler’s 11 interceptions in 2015 comprised the second-lowest season total of his career.

Jay Cutler is one of those quarterbacks that probably ends up as an average overall player, but will rarely be average in the process of getting there. He still makes some staggering throws, and still makes the kind of bonehead plays that have blighted his career and would frustrate the coach of a rookie QB. 10 of his 16 starts last season were graded either firmly in the green or firmly in the red, with only the remaining six somewhere in the middle as average outings. Brian Hoyer is an interesting player as a backup, because his play seems to turn into a pumpkin consistently around Week 10 of an NFL season. If the Bears need to call on him before that point, they’re likely in good shape, but if it’s after, you won’t find many worse QBs.

23. Detroit Lions

Starter: Matthew Stafford

Backup: Dan Orlovsky

Key stat: Stafford completed just 48.3 percent of his passes under pressure last season, the 21st-best rate in the NFL.

It sounds illogical, but losing Calvin Johnson may be the best thing to happen to Matthew Stafford’s career in a long time. Johnson was such a physically-dominant presence that Stafford understandably leaned on and would force the ball to. Without that crutch this season, Stafford will be forced to spread the ball around more and use the uncertainty of where the ball is going to go to open things up for everybody, including himself. It just might be the making of a quarterback who has shown the ability to be very good in the past. He is now coming off two straight seasons of sub-par play, but last season he was under assault due to his offensive line; when he was kept clean, he actually completed 75.2 percent of his passes and ended the year on a strong note.

24. Philadelphia Eagles

Starter: Sam Bradford

Backup: Carson Wentz, Chase Daniel

Key stat: Bradford led the NFL in accuracy percentage under pressure last season, with a mark of 74.6 percent.

Carson Wentz is the QB of the future. The only question is how far away that future is, and whether Chase Daniel will keep him as the No. 3 guy for a stretch in the meantime. Teams often intend to bring their rookie QB along slowly, but it so rarely works out that way if the starter struggles or, maybe more likely in Bradford’s case, gets hurt. Both Bradford and Daniel are receiving significant money, so the Eagles are financially incentivized to get use out of them before they turn to Wentz, and Bradford actually played pretty well last season. In an ideal world, this is a great QB situation, but the chance Bradford plays well enough to keep the QB controversy at bay is small in a town like Philadelphia, where the fans will voice their displeasure quickly. This has the potential to become pretty chaotic pretty quickly.

25. Baltimore Ravens

Starter: Joe Flacco

Backup: Ryan Mallett

Key stat: Flacco threw just one deep touchdown all of last season (20+ air yards), tied for fewest in the NFL.

Joe Flacco’s career is a study in the importance of timing. He managed to string together the best run of his career to take the team to the Super Bowl, and ultimately parlayed that into a big-money contract that he hasn’t been close to justifying since. Flacco has talent, but more than many QBs, he needs to be surrounded with the right supporting cast to excel, and even then you are at the mercy of his greater-than-average variance in form. 2015 was arguably the worst season of his career, and saw him complete fewer than 50 percent of his passes when pressured and throw twice as many interceptions (eight) as touchdowns (four) on those plays. This was a big reason the Ravens looked to the O-line early in the draft. Behind him, Ryan Mallett has had brief opportunities in his NFL career so far, but has yet to look like a viable NFL QB.

Ryan Fitzpatrick has re-signed with the team, but last season, he was PFF’s 30th-ranked quarterback overall, and his marginal arm talent looks to be more of an issue than ever before. Fitzpatrick is a good fit for this Jets’ offense because he will take chances and put the ball in the air more than most quarterbacks, giving receivers like Brandon Marshall and Eric Decker a chance to make plays over defensive backs. That tendency also causes some horrendous plays along the way, however. Geno Smith has the most physical talent among the Jets’ QB group, but may not have the mental skills necessary to succeed at the NFL level, and rookie Christian Hackenberg (Penn State) is basically a lottery ticket that no tape suggests is ever likely to pay out.

27. Tennessee Titans

Starter: Marcus Mariota

Backup: Matt Cassel

Key stat: Mariota recorded the lowest accuracy percentage on deep (20+ air yards) passes in the NFL last season, at 20.4 percent.

Last season, injuries robbed us of a clearer understanding of what Mariota is capable of at this level. One of the most efficient college passers in an offense that caused wide open shots all the time at Oregon, Mariota was up and down as a rookie and remains something of a question mark. He had excellent games as well as a couple of poor ones, but overall was only really good when he was kept clean in the pocket, completing 66.5 percent of his passes when under no pressure and earning a positive grade. When heat was applied, or even just when he was blitzed, that performance dipped significantly. If the Titans need to turn to the bench at all in 2016, they are likely to suffer some very poor play from Matt Cassel, who hasn’t performed well in a long time.

28. Los Angeles Rams

Starter: Jared Goff

Backup: Case Keenum

Key stat: 58.8 percent of Goff’s yards gained last season came in the air rather than after the catch, a figure that would have ranked in the top 10 in the NFL.

Jared Goff is the QB of the future for L.A. The only question is how long Rams fans have to wait to see it. He was the highest-graded QB in the nation last season, and even when pressured, had an NFL passer rating of 87.1, but his college offense was not exactly pro-style, and there may be an adjustment period before he is ready to start. If he isn’t, Keenum will get a chance to add to a career that is only 942 snaps old, but has seen some bright spots. Last season, he started five games, and outside of a poor first start against the Ravens, graded well.

29. Houston Texans

Starter: Brock Osweiler

Backup: Tom Savage

Key stat: Osweiler’s career is only 642 snaps old, and he was just handed $37 million guaranteed.

Maybe Brock Osweiler justifies the faith the Texans have in him and hits heights this season that he hasn’t yet shown, and if that happens, Houston will be far better than this ranking, but at the moment, they are turning the keys over to a QB that has seven starts to his name and got benched for a QB that finished the year as PFF’s 32nd-ranked signal-caller. Under pressure, his passer rating dropped almost thirty points, and his completion percentage fell by 14.3 percent. Osweiler has physical talents, but he is almost entirely unproven, having been very average over his seven starts.

30. Denver Broncos

Starter: Mark Sanchez

Backup: Paxton Lynch, Trevor Siemian

Key stat: Mark Sanchez has never earned a positive grade over a season in which he played more than 175 snaps.

If there is one legitimate wide open QB competition in the league right now, it’s Denver, where Sanchez, Lynch, and Siemian appear to be in a genuine competition for depth-chart order. Logic suggests that Sanchez will have the inside track for the starting job given his experience, while Lynch is the guy for the future, though he needs some development. With a legitimate competition though, anybody that has a good run in camp could suddenly find themselves in the starting role. Siemian’s NFL career to date consists of 74 preseason snaps, where he completed 23 of 40 pass attempts for 283 yards, two scores, and an interception. He also had three dropped passes, three batted at the line, and was sacked four times, illustrating the kind of football that gets played with the third-team in preseason.

31. Cleveland Browns

Starter: Robert Griffin III

Backup: Josh McCown, Cody Kessler

Key stat: The last positively-graded game from RG III came in Week 2 of the 2014 season.

The Browns look set to try and rediscover the best of Robert Griffin III, and if they can find that player, they are a lot better off than this ranking, but I think there is far more work involved than one offseason. They have found themselves a legitimate superstar-reclamation project, but will essentially need to rebuild RG III’s game from the ground up. The last time he was playing—back in 2014—he was completing just 50 percent of his passes under pressure for a passer rating in the 50s. Josh McCown has been a below average starter who had one freak-season of excellent play in Chicago back in 2013, and even that year was only 427 snaps worth of action. Cody Kessler is an intriguing guy for the future with excellent accuracy, but he may only see the field if and when the other two fail.

32. San Francisco 49ers

Starter: Blaine Gabbert

Backup: Colin Kaepernick

Key stat: 2015 was by far the best season of Blaine Gabbert’s career, and still saw him grade below average, with a passer rating of 86.2.

The 49ers will be hoping Chip Kelly can work his magic on their quarterbacks, because on paper, neither Gabbert nor Kaepernick has been able to perform well going back for several years. Kaepernick has at least had a stretch of play at this level where he looked legit, but Gabbert has never justified his first-round selection on the field. Kelly’s system was able to make Nick Foles look like a superstar and Sam Bradford have a fine year despite a faltering running game, so there is a chance that whoever earns this job has the best season they have had in some time if the same thing happens in San Francisco.

Sam is a Senior Analyst at Pro Football Focus, as well as a contributor to ESPN. Follow @PFF_Sam

Jason

How salty is Kevin Gilbride about Eli Manning now that he’s working on your staff?

Does he not recognize that he was the single biggest problem all along?

eYeDEF

Denial is powerful.

zinn21 zinn21

I don’t really get the Ryan Fitzpatrick/NY Jets pissing contest. And feel comfortable that Geno Smith will move this team. They have a good defense. Think they will surprise.

eYeDEF

Except your expectations are unrealistic when Geno has never moved the Jets in any direction but backwards. Fitz at least seems to understand this. When you’ve got Geno making you comfortable about seeing him play, it might be time to start questioning your grip on reality.

Ben

hahahahahahaa

Screweduptexansfan

Since you and PFF staff keep getting hung up how much osweiler got paid, perhaps suggesting an alternative would actually add to the discussion. However, I doubt you and the rest of your team are able to. I understand you guys are all about numbers. I get that you have whatever bias against the Texans. But tell me and everyone else what better move the Texans should have done? You guys get hung up on the most petty crap, this is why many people laugh at your bogus point based analysis. The numbers get analyzed by biased hacks like you. The ranking of osweiler is pretty legit. But your tired narrative about 38 million without at least an alternative is just plain lazy and bad writing. Do have to ask LaCanfora for permission before you write anything osweiler related? Perhaps God Elway in Denver won’t let be a big boy with original takes? Go back to school hack!

Zach

It’s no one’s fault but the Texans’ that they had to overpay for Osweiller. They’ve tried band-aid solutions to QB for the last 10 years so it was inevitable that after they all failed they would have to draft someone or overpay in free agency. They chose the later

Screweduptexansfan

So your saying giving up a ton of future draft picks would have been better? I’m not saying he’s going to light up the league, that really is unknown. I’m simply saying everybody wants to talk about how much the kid got payed is an indication of how he will play. By that logic if the Texans payed him less would he play better? What better option did Houston have?

pobodysnerfect

Minnesota is WAY WAY too high on this list. They were 32nd in passing last year! While this year might be slightly better, they’re not going to be a top half passing attack, regardless of a rookie WR and how many overpriced and old FA OLmen they add. PFF has always man crush on Teddy Bridgewater, and for the life of me I don’t understand why. The guy is a poor-man’s Alex Smith. He just doesn’t have the physical ability to be any more than a mediocre passer. The idea that he can elevate the level of his offensive teammates is a flat out joke.

Minny should be no higher than 25th on this list, and a good argument can be made for 30th.

SkolBro

Nah Bro, Bridgewater is our generations Joe Montana, he’s just learning. He has more TDs and wins in his first two years in the league than Rodgers did holding a clipboard his first years. Don’t be surprised when Bridgewater wins more Superbowls than Favre and Rodgers combined.

crosseyedlemon

Love your sense of humor. Your predicting a World Series win for the Twins too right?

pobodysnerfect

Don’t bandy logic about with Vikings fans. They only respond to emotion. You see, Vikings fans have spent the entire life of their franchise predicting greatness and coming up laughably short, and as a result they have a MAJOR Napoleon syndrome.

Especially as it relates to the Packers and the historical difference in the two teams quality at the QB position.

osoviejo

“Don’t be surprised when Bridgewater wins more Superbowls than Favre and Rodgers combined.”

I love irrational fanboy enthusiasm as much as anyone, but maybe let’s see him win his first playoff game before you go nuts.

No I didn’t forget. Teddy is terrible. The only reason he’s not mentioned as a huge bust is because he was an end of round 1 pick and not a top 5 pick. Alex was #1 overall. That’s like saying AJ Hawk was a bust. No. No he wasn’t. He just wasn’t an All Pro and as a result didn’t live up to expectations of his lofty draft status.

Alex is who Teddy B should aspire to be. That’s his ceiling. It remains to be seen if he can hit it. I have my doubts.

JonLee

First of all, I wasn’t making a point about draft status. My point is that comparing a 23-year old QB to a 32-year old QB is a bit of stretch. Yes, they both like to rely on short passes and checkdowns, but it’s way too early to label Teddy as Alex-lite.

Yes, but Alex’s 9ers were way worse than the Vikings are currently. They’re not a bad team, I’m just tired of everyone jumping their nuts – and Teddy is the main reason why. He’s shown no consistency past 10 yards down the field in his 2 years. That doesn’t bode well.

He might get to be more efficient with what he has (just like Alex Smith), but I just don’t think his physical prowess throwing the ball is going to get markedly better.

No. Those players were bad no doubt. But they weren’t the main problem. In the NFL, the QB is the one who is going to decide most games. Yes, once a decade a dominant defense will win it all for you, but the other nine times every 10 years, it’s the QB first and defense second. If you have a QB, you have a chance. The Vikings don’t have a QB. They have a game manager. Maybe.

You can feel free to disagree with me. But in doing so, you’re disregarding the last 25 years of NFL history.

As Teddy goes, so go the Vikings. They’re a playoff team. But they’re not a title threat.

crosseyedlemon

I think we have to give a lot of credit to Andy Reid. He manages to get guys like Mike Vick and Alex Smith to succeed when most other coaches would simply throw up their arms in defeat.

alliya

What is the point of this list if the Patriots are ranked number 2? In what universe is having Tom Brady suspended four game a good QB situation.

The Lions ranked at 23 is a joke. Your analyst of Stafford is patently false. Here are some key stats for you. Did you know in 2015 he had a higher passer rating, completion percentage threw 1 more TD and 5 more interceptions than… Aaron Rodgers.

How the hell are the Cowboys all the way at 13? They have proven time and time again that they do NOT have a good quarterback situation.

SeattleSteve

With Megatron and Golden Tate, he should of had more than 1 TD and less interceptions than Rodgers (w/a depleted WR corp).

Mike

You cannot use the players a QB has as both a benefit and a detriment. Which is it? If Stafford has more weapons and better stats, I’d say he is in a better situation.

eYeDEF

I’d say Stafford had great weapons last year and shitty stats, indicative of underachievement.

Dohkay

Great weapons at WR? Absolutely. How about OL, RB, and TE? Ehhhhh. It’s great to have talent at WR but if the QB is facing pass defenses most downs because teams don’t respect the run and his OL can’t even handle 4 rushing linemen, much less a blitz, what good are they?

I think the Lions FO realized this as well given they drafted and signed OL and RB while settling for a WR2 in FA to replace Calvin.

eYeDEF

But isn’t it always something with Stafford? I recall the previous season to last he had problems too, where he marginally improved by taking sacks instead of throwing picks in those situations, but seemed habitually conditioned not to understand the concept of throwing the ball away. His TTT has always been straight down the middle league average, and if his line is shit he should know by now to make quicker adjustments to throw. I didn’t see enough Lions games last year to know whether his line gave him more time as the season wore on or whether he made such adjustments, I’m not knocking his clear improvement. Just his inconsistency from year to year, and that there always seems to be something holding him back from putting in a season anywhere close to 2011. Last season it was his record and slow start that kept it from being called a successful year for him. Even if they had beat the Seahawks in that Monday night game game, 8-8 is nothing to be proud about.

Dohkay

Under Linehan he was one of the leaders in quickest time from snap to pass (trailed only Manning I believe). Under Lombardi, they decided to hold the ball longer so routes could develop which was a disaster with a shit OL. Once they finally canned Lombardi and let Cooter takeover Stafford once again started getting the ball out faster and as a result his sacks went down and his stats improved.

Stafford is not an All-Pro and needs to be in the right system to succeed. Should he be top 5? No. Should he be 23? Come on man…

eYeDEF

Yeah I know he’s not 23, Orlovsky had to be what dragged Detroit’s rank down based on their emphasis as stated in the intro blurb on the first two spots. Else I agree it doesn’t make much sense.

jody

You acknowledge he has a great receiver corps, but then cry about other elements of the offense as though no other QBs have to deal with any weaknesses in their offenses and other teams have nothing but stars at every position. Get a grip. Stafford sucks. Too bad this thread got highjacked by some hard-done-by Lions homers – it could have been quite interesting.

jody

Because Brady on the bench is better than Stafford on the field…

crosseyedlemon

Your comment that Flacco struggles without a solid supporting cast is valid but that can be said of nearly every QB. The bottom line is he is 75-47 as a starter and that’s why he is so well paid.

Brian Dugan

So you value W-L as a QB stat, eh?

crosseyedlemon

Teams spend hundreds of hours scouting players and have advanced stats on everything but the only question they need answered at the end of the day is “can this guy win for us?”. All decisions are ultimately based on that.

Brian Dugan

So Peyton Manning’s W-L record last year was an accurate representation of his play? How about Rex Grossman’s record the year the Bears went to the Super Bowl. Trent Dilfer for the Ravens? W-L as a stat to judge QBs is even less intelligent than W-L for SP’s in baseball.

John B

I doubt there’s a single GM in the NFL who would take Blake Bortles, Teddy Bridgewater, Tyrod Taylor, Kirk Cousins or Ryan Tannehill over Matthew Stafford. Seriously come on. In fact it’s probably safe to include Cutler, Winston, Carr and Alex Smith as well into that mix.

The funny thing is once again we have Mr. Andrew Luck towards the top of another list despite the fact Stafford has had an overall better QB rating in his career than Luck and is a whopping 30% points ahead of Luck in the Football Outsiders DVOA QB numbers since Luck joined the league back in 2012. That’s the site that actually takes into account the other team’s defensive rating and measures things based on the score, the time and situation of the game.

I really question what the PFF staff were watching last year when grading Stafford as anyone who followed the Lions could see how he was absolutely brutalized early on but despite you can see right away it was a much improved Stafford when he was given time to throw the football. The improvement was very noticeable in all facets of his game also from his accuracy to his pocket presence, leadership and decision making. You could see that he had went to the next level.

The real head scratcher though was that PFF actually had Stafford as the worst starting QB in the NFL at that time and they were basically placing the blame on him for the Lions slow start. In all my years following sports closely I don’t recall what I felt was a worse evaluation of any player from a site or analyst that I respected.

The Lions ended up making two moves at the mid-season point last year and that really made a huge difference for their offense as they replaced a starter on the offensive line and fired their offensive coordinator also. Instantly things really took off as Stafford finally had some time to throw and he ended up with a QB rating around 110 in the 2nd half of last season.

How could PFF not only not see some of this coming but worse yet made it sound like Stafford was a mess and playing poorly. Either way we move on and here we are now and a chance for PFF to correct their enormous mistake and instead we have this type of ranking, totally laughable.

Stafford most recent high level play and consistency (last year he was only QB in NFL history to complete 60% of his passes in EVERY GAME) and he did all of this against a schedule that featured 8 regular season games against teams with double digit wins (the most in NFL) and with a very solid 32-13 TD/INT ratio. While on the other side of things we have Andrew Luck coming in off the worst season of his career with an ugly 15-12 TD/INT ratio and yet he’s ranked 9th and Stafford a dismal 23rd, mind boggling!!!!

K-Dub(F.E.F.)

Excellent comment. Sadly you’ll be getting no response from them….

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Brian Dugan

I’m a Packers fan I have to agree with you that Stafford is criminally low on this list. PFF having Bridgewater and Tannehill above him is especially absurd.

Mr McMurderer

Stafford can’t beat good teams (by good, I mean they go on to have a winning record). Has one of if not the worst records when facing playoff caliber competition as a starting QB. Carr has already beaten 5 teams who ended up 8-8 or better, including the ten that went on to win the SB last year. The only person to their more TD passes their first 2 years in the league was Dan Marino. Now that Megatron is gone, we’ll get to see how good Stafford is w/o a HOF WR in his prime. Should be interesting. Btw, Carr threw those TDs with James Jones as his best receiver in ’14 and a rookie that lead the league in drops in ’15, not to mention his whole WR corps leading the league in drops in ’15. Stafford is better than what he gets credit for, but he isn’t nor ever will be on Carr’s level, and that’s already obvious.

Dohkay

Carr is 5-17 against teams with winning records. You’re going to hang your hat on those 5 wins and claim that instantly makes him better? Before you claim that Oakland was a bad team that drafted him remember that Detroit was 0-16 when they drafted Stafford and he missed parts of his first 2 seasons with injuries.

Was Calvin a beast? Absolutely. What about the other guys? Remember Kris Durham, Nate Burleson, Tony Scheffler, Brandon Pettigrew? Yeah, most don’t.

Raiders lead the league in drop percentage last year, totally right. Who lead the league 2 years before that? The Lions.

Your part about Marino is cool and all but keep in mind who is on pace to break Manning’s record for most TD passes based on where they were at age 28 (hint: he wears Honolulu blue).

I like Carr and think he can be a very special QB but let’s hold our horses on saying “he isn’t nor ever will be” on Carr’s level given we have all of two seasons to judge Carr. 32:13 in his 2nd year is damn good. 41:16 in Stafford’s 3rd year (and first full season) ain’t too shabby either…

Mr McMurderer

The fact Carr has played 22 games against teams with winning record out of the possible 32 games total he’s played shows how brutal the competition has been for Carr since entering the league 2 years ago. That means that only 5 games a season has been against teams with losing records, so the other 11 games a season has been against playoff caliber competition. That makes his total TDs all the more impressive. Not to mention in ’15 the Raiders faced the toughest schedule in defensive DVOA, the 7th hardest schedule overall. His #1 WR was a rookie, his second a castoff from the 49ers who everyone thought lost a step, and his slot WR spent ’14 on the practice squad. He had great protection the first 8 games of the season, but multiple injuries on the right side completely changed that, dropping them to 28th over the last 8, including a 6 sack season finale. I say that knowing Stafford hasn’t had a great line to work with, and a QBs production def takes a dip without decent blocking. Personally, I’d take Carr over Stafford due to the quality of competition beaten and because Carr lead the league in comeback victories last season, along with his penchant for perfectly placed throws that are just mind blowing. I think the Raiders will be better at putting talent around Carr during his career as well, meaning he’ll have a much better chance at being successful. What have the lions had outside of Megatron, someone they drafted before Stafford? A QB can only be as good as his supporting cast, and I doubt Detroit’s ability to build around him. Those are the reasons I believe Carr is and will be the better QB.

Dohkay

“What have the lions had outside of Megatron, someone they drafted before
Stafford? A QB can only be as good as his supporting cast, and I doubt
Detroit’s ability to build around him. Those are the reasons I believe
Carr is and will be the better QB.”

So you think Stafford is worse because he doesn’t have as good of a supporting cast? How does that make sense? Judge the players individually, not based on all the talent surrounding them.

Mike

Matthew Stafford is 1-0 against Carr.

HTTRer

No, Detroit is 1-0 against Carr. Wait a minute.

crosseyedlemon

As Vince Lombardi would say “the only thing that matters is winning”. Stafford is only 42-51 as a starter with a poor 8-14 record in the month of December when the playoff crunch occurs.

Jody

Exactly. Site any stats you want to, Stafford is the definition of a mediocre quarterback. You could justify putting him a little higher, or you could leave him right where he is and not be wrong. Sorry Lions homers…

Mike

“Key stat: Stafford completed just 48.3 percent of his passes under pressure last season, the 21st-best rate in the NFL.”

The Lions used FA and draft resources to improve the OL. Their starting LT appears to be losing his starting job to a rookie which means, the Lions are upgrading at both positions. There is a camp battle at center. The Lions added Geoff Schwartz who has graded positively by PFF in the past.

If this is the key stat and biggest knock on Stafford, isn’t it safe to assume the Lions have done plenty of work to improve this?

Mike Riley

I’m a Raider fan but Blake Bortles is very low on this list. I don’t agree with the QB situation formula used here. You need to include performance, potential, age, backups experience in the system as well as their own proven production as opposed to this PFF standard of excellence based on last season’s production by the starter only with the exception being Room.

ToreBear

The more choices a player has during a play, the less likely PFF is going to get the rating right. The more players affect the players choices during a play, the less likely PFF is going to get the rating right.

Thats why QB ratings is the least valid and reliable player rating that PFF has. It’s disappointing that none of this is mentioned or discussed by PFF.

Ben

I can only say this list is pretty comical and seems more opinionated than actual fact.
I am mildly surprised that PFF would come out with such garbage but hey it’s the off season. Pro Football Flubbed is more like it.

Lorcan Bonda

Everybody is going to have their opinions, but there are some pretty clear statistics out there to use. It is tough to argue against the top six as they are the usual suspects.

My team is the Redskins, so I’m biased. Cousins had a much better year than Winston. No slam on Winston — but Cousins has 10% higher rate.

When it comes to McCoy, this is factually wrong, “Colt McCoy is seen as an able backup, but realistically is unlikely to
play well if given the chance (based on his career history).” — In two years with the Redskins, he has a passer rating of ~ 100. He has played well every time he has played.

cka2nd

I’m surprised to see so much emphasis placed on completion percentage. I’d reverse Brdigewater and Bortles, for instance, because of the latter’s much, much higher touchdown percentage. Overall, I think this article didn’t discuss the back-up situations nearly enough, including third-stringers who might vault over the veteran back-ups listed above if the starter was lost for more than a game or two, for instance, Taylor Heinicke on the Vikings.

enai D

Bortles boxscore stats are misleading, putting up a bunch of meaningless yards/TDs when your team has already essentially lost the game isn’t worth much (this is a large reason why Bortles’ PFF and FO scores/stats don’t match his raw counting stats). Indeed, you couldn’t find a more perfect case study of boxscore stats not telling the whole story than Bortles and Bridgewater- Bortles raw stats are far superior, but he’s almost certainly the inferior QB of the two in many respects.

Todd

The Falcons at #8?
Come on look at the back ups too.
Shaub is the worst qb to ever put on a Jersey.
Some of these back ups are either horrible or completely unproven.
I thought this was qb situation not starter

Samuel Mazzini

This list was downright atrocious, the key word here is “groups ” I won’t go through them all but no.1 is undoubtedly New England 2.would have to be Oakland with Carr ,Mcgloin and a potential stud in Cook as your 3rd stringer come on now,let’s keep it real.3rd is undoubtedly the Eagles yea Sam but still Carson and another guy in Daniels who’s more than a capable starter if need be,that’s another fantastic “GROUP” Andrew Luck coming off three separate but equally as serious injuries backed up by Scott Tolzien does not qualify as a good group, it means without a healthy Andrew this team with its porous D and 33 yr old starting running back could realistically be a 4-12 team even tho I’ve seen them projected in multiple periodicals and by a multitude of dopey analysts as the favorites to win that division despite two of the most talented teams in the leauge playing in their division, those being Houston and Jacksonville respectively.

rodrigo pedro

Brady is suspended and old.
Is he playing great ? yes.
Peyton Manning played arguably the best football ever in 2013,had a point for MVP in the first half of 2014 and late 2014 was already half dead.
Cam Newton and Russel Wilson behind Brady is wrong imo.
Roethlisberger might also rank higher,but he has had injuries so im fine with Brady 4th.

DrAWNiloc

It might help to establish from the outset that we aren’t talking about quarterbacks (and the things they control) but “quarterback situations” (roughly: things QBs do not control).

Eric O. Nelson, III

The content on Stafford and rating him 23 is ludicrous. Let’s see if I got this right, yu think cutler, tannehill and an aging and injured romo are better?

Put the crack pipe down and go take a nap.

NFL Buddha

I thought you guys were all about performance? Andrew Luck has been nothing but hype, and once the officials ceased “aiding and abetting” Luck’s fourth quarter comebacks with Pass Interference calls at the exact right time you got what you got last season. And you cannot blame Matt Cassel for what happened in Dallas last year – The Cowboys quit playing. Even Brandon Weedin won a game once he got away from Dallas.

Phil

I can’t stand Dallas.

NFL Buddha

Teddy Bridgewater is terrible. He does not belong on an NFL roster. At least a guy like Geno Smith has the potential to make the grade. Bridgewater passed for 91 yards Week 17 in a must-win game over the Packers.

enai D

lol, so clueless

Lanny Stricherz

Hey Buddha, you are right his qbr was 6.4 while for the year it was 62.7 and his overall rating was 88.7, but the Vikings won the game. The week before against AZ, Rodgers, this blog’s #1 rated qb had a qbr of 9.4 and a season long 64.9 with an overall rating of 92.7. The Packers lost. That game against AZ, left the door open for the Vikings to win the Division, which is what I thought that it was all about. I can’t believe the number of Teddy haters out there and many of them are Vikings fans. Teddy is 6 games over .500 in his first two years. Any fan who would not take that, has got to be smoking whatever it is that some of the posters on here are accusing the author of smoking.

Don Elretseo

Really selling Gabbert short here. Comeback player of the year I’m calling it now, In Chip we trust.

larry mckinney

Why?

Choocharooch

This list is just retarded, how the f*ck is a 2 time Super Bowl MVP ranked 20th on this list behind the likes of Tyrod Taylor, Teddy Bridgewater, Alex Smith, Blake Bortles, Kirk Cousins. Does this writer even watch the game, I don’t need some new fangled stats to tell me Eli is better than all the QBs I listed, I just need my eyes. Plus he’s the most durable player this side of Brett Favre. Btw to all you Stafford fans HE SUCKS!!! Always makes poor decisions and without megatron this year he’s going nowhere

Brian Tveita

Exactly, Stafford is awful, slide arm slinger who had a HOF receiver to throw too made him look decent. To the packers homer, Teddy is a high percentage, quick pass spread guy, the fact that hes completed a high percentage shows he has the tools to get the job done, is he all world? no of course not, but the Vikings also no only run the ball a ton, but run he ball a lot inside the 10 yard line, heck in the last two year Matt Frecking Asiata and A.p have had double digit touch downs rushing. The fact that he wasn’t airing the ball out 40 yards down the field isn’t as concerning since they worked on that a lot in the off season and has shown improved accuracy in the 10-20 yard range. In fact I believe TB ended 2015 with a higher yards per pass then check down Rogers.

Bruinman86

As a pats fan, I cannot stand Eli, but agree he deserves to be ranked higher than 20. I see him probably around 10 or 11 despite throwing a boatload of INT’s (55) over the last 3 years.

11Eleven11

AJ McCarron was a disaster against Pittsburgh in the playoffs? Wow. I guess I didn’t see him throw the go-ahead touchdown only to have his running back fumble the game away. That’s pathetic, man. Watch a game.

AT

The Broncos, have been the most impressive. I expected them to be bad, but looks like they are doing well.

Ezell Cox

Hey PFF how stupid does your ranking on Matthew Stafford look. No defense, No RB, No problem.