I've been working as the Social Media Editor and a staff writer at Forbes since October 2011. Prior to that, I worked as a freelance writer and contributor here. On this blog, I focus on futurism, cutting edge technology, and breaking research. Follow me on Twitter - @thealexknapp. You can email me at aknapp@forbes.com

Repent! The End Of Cheap Coffee Is Nigh!

Zak Stone reports on what is probably the worst news I’ve heard all day. That news is this: we may be approaching a day where coffee is both rare and expensive. This threat comes from two sources. The first is the ever-growing demand for coffee all over the world, especially as more countries develop a strong, robust middle class that requires coffee to function.

Second, there have been a number of impacts to the supply of coffee. Weather causes, possibly fueled by overall climate change, have led to lower crop yields. On top of that, there have been outbreaks of new pests and fungi, as well as some very unstable labor issues in coffee-producing companies. The overall effect is that, as Stone notes, “supply has gone down and demand has gone up.”

This is particularly the case because the coffee beans that produce the best flavors are also among the hardest to produce, because they require particular weather systems to reach a productive peak. Unfortunately, those weather systems are being impacted by the overall changes to the Earth’s climate:

The delicate balance in those ecosystems is being thrown off kilter. In Colombia, the world’s third-biggest coffee producer, agricultural scientist Peter Baker has watched while record rainfall, increased heat, and frequent plagues have devastated farms across the country’s Andean coffee- growing region. It was 2005 when Baker “started to think seriously that climate change was not just about the future but was already happening.” Today, the signs are plentiful. Average temperatures have risen nearly 2 degrees in some areas over the past 30 years, “especially nighttime minimum temperatures,” says Baker, “a tell-tale signature of [man-made] climate change.” Hotter, rainier weather nourishes pests and disease, particularly coffee rust, a fungal plague that’s ascended Colombia’s mountain peaks, which were formerly too chilly for the organism. Heavy rains damage Arabica’s delicate blossoms—the same blossoms that eventually turn into coffee cherries, whose seeds are coffee beans. As heat and pests climb Colombia’s mountains, “the lower limit at which coffee is grown is starting to go up,” says Baker. As growers move higher into the mountains, they run into another problem: mountains have tops.

The results of these climate changes was a decrease in yield. Arabica, the world’s most common bean, has seen diminished yields over the past few years, which has led to a rise in the price of coffee overall. Right now, it looks like that trend is going to continue.

On a personal note, I have to say that this is terrifying news. Coffee is my lifeblood. It’s how I stay awake in the mornings and it’s what enables me to do my best work. I love the smell and taste of it. I love trying new flavors and varieties.

Furthermore, the fact that coffee is a mental stimulant is well-documented. For example, the rise of coffee in the Islamic world in the early Middle Ages is what led to the rise of coffeehouse culture in those countries, which fueled the intellectual ferment that led to the Islamic golden age. Islamic students and scholars, fueled by coffee, revived Greek philosophy and laid the groundwork for the scientific method and modern mathematics. Without coffee, the Renaissance and Enlightenment might never have happened, as they were sparked by Europe’s introduction to the scientific and philosophic works of the Muslim world.

Okay, so maybe I’m exaggerating a little bit. I suppose it’s possible that the modern world and the advance of science are not the direct result of coffee-fueled discussions in Cordoba and other Muslim cities. And the lack of readily-available coffee might not lead to the collapse of science, engineering, and civilization.

Post Your Comment

Post Your Reply

Forbes writers have the ability to call out member comments they find particularly interesting. Called-out comments are highlighted across the Forbes network. You'll be notified if your comment is called out.

Comments

Counterpoint: a bit of research that “found a correlation” between the number of Starbucks and the depths of market crashes… http://www.thedailybeast.com/newsweek/2008/10/19/a-venti-sized-recession.html

Anyway, this might not be as bad news as you think. Economics to the rescue!

The higher coffee prices rise, the more “worth it” it would become to develop better pesticides/fungicides, etc. to cap the coffee-killing critters.

Also, if warmer temperatures begin to directly (rather than indirectly through pestilence) prevent coffee production in Columbia and other traditional areas, never fear! It would also mean that areas now too cold to grow coffee could become fertile for it.

Caffeine is not a mental stimulant. It stimulates your adrenals, which produces adrenaline. Adrenaline increases your heart rate and the volume of blood pumped by the heart, thus bringing more oxygen to your brain, so you feel more alert. The same can be achieved by exercise, which is why you always feel refreshed after a walk in fresh air.