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Tropical Storm Karen fizzles, but less than predictably

Photo of the day: Tropical Storm Karen fizzles out

It was a mix of sunshine, rain, and a rainbow as the outer bands of Tropical Storm Karen begin making their way into metro New Orleans on Saturday. Katherine Wade of New Orleans sits in her favorite spot near Lake Pontchartrain taking in the scene.
(Photo by Chris Granger, Nola.com | The Times-Picayune)

Within hours of Tropical Storm Karen forming above the warm waters that separate Mexico from Cuba, Gov. Bobby Jindal had declared a statewide emergency for Louisiana. As the storm grew, floodgates closed. Parish leaders urged vigilance or evacuations at hastily called press conferences. Governments and groups canceled weekend events across southeastern Louisiana, bracing for what the National Hurricane Center predicted could grow to a Category 1 hurricane before reaching land.

But as mild fall-like weather descended on the region Monday, most Gulf Coast residents could barely remember Karen - which has yet to make landfall and turned out to be a major fizzle in what has been a quiet hurricane season.

Predictions of the storm's build-up before its subsequent collapse without ever touching dry land exposed in equal parts the fickle nature of tropical storms and the fine line public officials must walk between guarding public safety and overreaction.

"We knew the whole time it was a possibility it would never materialize," said Shawn O'Neil, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service. "But you have to err on the side of precaution."

Despite strides made with local technology that have made tracking hurricanes more accurate, knowing when a storm could suddenly grow into a monster is still very much a guessing game, he said.

"You never want to understate what's possible, because that's when people get hurt," O'Neil said. "That's when people die."

Officials across the region had to navigate that gray area between what was possible and what turned out to be reality. Like many of his counterparts, New Orleans Mayor Mitch Landrieu worked to downplay worries about Karen's power while simultaneously declaring a state of emergency.

"I feel fairly comfortable, given what we're seeing out there, that this should be a blip on our radar screen," he said last week. "But everyone needs to pay attention and be vigilant, because these things have minds of their own."

Similarly, the Army Corps of Engineers closed more than a third of the 500 or so openings in the levee protection system, including the massive barge gate in the Lake Borgne Surge Barrier - an operation that must start 96 hours before a tropical storm's predicted landfall. Karen did cause water levels to rise more than 2 feet in some spots, which would have caused localized flooding had all floodgates remained open, said Mike Stack, chief of emergency management for the corps' New Orleans District.

As Karen failed to gain full rotation and eventually swept back out to sea, officials ratcheted back emergency operations and lowered evacuations from mandatory to voluntary. In New Orleans, businesses opened their doors. Residents took to walking their dogs rather than sheltering in place.

Nevertheless, both O'Neil and Stack said Karen offered teaching moments, both for scientists and those in charge of a relatively new, incomparably complex hurricane protection system.

"It's Mother Nature," O'Neil said. "It's not a perfect science. There's always something we learn that we can apply to the next storm."

But in the days before Karen weakened, one three-day music festival along the Mississippi River's West Bank ignored the warning signs. As other communities boarded up, the Gretna Heritage Festival played on. Ricky Templet, an event organizer and Jefferson Parish Council member, said that throughout the weekend he chose to rely on the prognostications of Fox meteorologist Bob Breck.

"Bob kept insisting don't cancel your event," Templet said. "He was telling us that he felt this thing was going to blow apart."

Breck, against prevailing forecasts, turned out to be right. He predicted that high wind shear that often occurs in October and the incoming cold front that unofficially ushered fall into New Orleans would be Karen's end.

"I think what it comes down to is we have a new generation of weather casters who are afraid to fail," Breck said. "Nobody wants to go against the National Hurricane Center."