Without ‘social distancing,’ 400 could die from coronavirus in Western Washington by April 7, study suggests

March 11, 2020 at 10:50 pm Updated March 12, 2020 at 10:36 pm

Washington Gov. Jay Inslee talks to reporters, Wednesday, March 11, 2020, during a news conference in Seattle. In efforts to slow the spread of the coronavirus, Inslee announced a ban on large public gatherings in three counties in the metro Seattle area. The vast majority of people recover from the new coronavirus. According to the World Health Organization, most people recover in about two to six weeks, depending on the severity of the illness. (Stephen Brashear / The Associated Press)

Researchers at The Institute for Disease Modeling in Bellevue, the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center released a working paper on March 11 using research from around the world on coronavirus, and local research from the flu — including a study of how much school cancellations around 2019’s “Snowpocalypse” reduced spread of the flu.

“If you look at those numbers and the trajectory, this virus is in community spread now, and not just in Seattle,” Durkan said.

The researchers wrote that a 25 percent reduction in transmission rate, which is likely achievable with social-distancing measures the state and county already implemented, would lower the total number of infections to 9,700 and result in about 160 deaths.

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“The model shows that any social distancing that results in reduced transmission rates will slow the rate of growth of the epidemic,” the study authors wrote, “but only large changes in contact rate can interrupt ongoing transmission.”

It will take more aggressive measures to lower transmission by 75 percent – which is what the modeling suggests will be necessary to stem the outbreak. That would result in less than 2,000 cases and around 30 deaths by April 7, the study suggests.

In total, 29 people in Washington state are known to have died from the disease as of Wednesday , and there were a total 366 cases in Washington state. Schools around the region have closed for weeks, employees at many of the region’s tech companies are working from home, and many concerts and sports events have been canceled or are being played in empty stadiums.

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