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The website of the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) is one of the most vital websites to visit during threats of bad weather.

However, the just broke down this morning.

Probably, it may have succumbed to the overwhelming number of visitors wanting to access the site.

The website, powered by Joomla!, received an SQL connection error this morning prior to its complete breakdown.

This error occasionally happened even before during the time of high demand, especially during the time of bad weather.

Typhoon Ruby, internationally named as Hagupit, is threatening the Philippines. Forecast tracks are confusing, and widely varied, with potential impact stretching from Northern Luzon to northern Mindanao.

Long Wait Is Now Over, Enter Project NOAH

Iloilo City, Philippines, 12 June 2012, (1230Z)–For almost three (3) years of unrelenting campaign, the country’s official weather bureau, Philippine Atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) has finally come up to a solution in addressing the need of a reliable, efficient and adequate source of weather data that for a majority of countries from around the world have been utilizing for decades already! It was only now that the Philippines could have established capability of its ageing weather stations across the archipelago. We’ve come to age, only now but welcome development altogether! The agency was long beleaguered by tough calls, indecision and poor handling of forecasting by any rate. Now is the time to move forward. We should take into cognizance the stark reality that the Sun doesn’t shine brightly everyday, not all days of the calendar year are Sunny, nor it should be Summer! One huge challenge we try to contain, and get hold of its temper are the elusive capability to predict incoming severe weather. The Philippines is geographically situated in Southeast Asia wherein tropical climate dominate its weather year-round with breaks of torrential rains, and by far the most important of all, the coming of the surging “Southwest Monsoon,” a.k.a. “Habagat,” at the onset of the rainy season, finishing off with the arrival of Typhoons through September until December, wherein the “Supers,” of Typhoons kick off. You might get the gist right?

Having said it all though, certainly gives us a decapitating incapacity of maintaining propriety during the opening of school year especially in the rainy month of June where floods face our children in schools, drawing perils to millions of our people. A knee-numbing experience we all face in the duration of the seemingly “Alive, unstoppable,” forces of nature. A place we call Earth, love or hate it but we got no means to go against its will. The choice remains on us all. We must ensure ourselves protection from the elements, and we’re just empowered to respond to that call.

Changing the school calendar won’t be the only solution–taming the weather mystery is one logical step.

The years of neglect and bureaucracy has taken a huge toll on the agency. It took decades to particularly emboss the materiality of sufficing the requirement. Given the option to provide essential heads-up of incoming weather systems that has a potential to affect largely the agricultural sector, where most of our countrymen earn a living, the seas roughen up during Typhoon season spells dwindling stocks of fish and aquatic resources. What about the threats of suddenness of changing climate, and dipping temperatures during the cold months, fish kills abound. Talk about the searing heat of the last Summer months–new records have been set.

Change Has Come To Age

How about the ecologically-sensitive environment of the country? The lives on the line and the future we hold so dearly, are utterly priceless! That’s what at stake! With so much to lose, the current administration has ensured an accelerated modernization of the weather bureau’s long-awaited capacity build-up organization-wide. It could not be more vivid in the hearts and minds of my fellow “Kababayans” that for so long a time we have been all clamouring for a more dedicated PAGASA–the time has come of age, it has to be now or never!

This is how it looked in 2011:

Fig. 1.0 "Subic Doppler Radar generated this imagery in 27 September 2011 during the historic storm surges that has most coastal areas along Manila Bay inundated due to surging waves being pulled by Super Typhoon 'Nesat/Pedring,' Image Courtesy: PAGASA"

Fig. 3.0 "Hinatuan Doppler Radar kicks off huge area of precipitation last 2011 when it was still under random test. Image Courtesy: PAGASA"

Spot the difference while standing aside, the old dilemma of daily aspect of living, with much question rather than answers to the obvious wonders, the “Weather,” with the brand of itself deserve nothing but credibility and accuracy, and the dumbfounded inaccuracy of forecasts on a daily basis are proven to be counterproductive, a huge blow to the vast rich archipelagic geography riddled with awesome sea resources and agriculture that lies scattered across a staggering bountiful 7,107 Islands and Islets across much of the Philippines, “truly to die for!”

It has been a long, arduous journey for me and the rest of the Filipino people since the day the very word, “Doppler Radar,” has been made into obviously an occurrence of great mystery on when it will be made of public access. This I think for the last decade we have all essentially been waiting for. It’s a taste to a growing clamour for transparency and accountability in the agency and of course, we all deserve a big break from all the ill-effects these severe of storms have been putting us of great setback and economic disarray.

Fig. 5.0 "PAGASA's Project NOAH in operation across four (4) separate points across the archipelago. More stations will be in operation in a few months time. Image Courtesy: PAGASA/Project NOAH/Text Credit: Westernpacificweather.com."

Modernizing PAGASA has long been a dream since the former sacked PAGASA Chief, Dr. Prisco Nilo who was unceremoniously removed from his post due to a very bad situation or rather a really bad take on Typhoon “Basyang,” internationally known as “Conson,” on 13 July of 2010, wherein Dr. Nilo has assured the current President, Benigno S. Aquino III that the projected path of the Typhoon was more to the Northeast of Manila, pointing at Aurora-Isabela Provinces in a command conference together with the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council (NDRRMC). Worse, the projected path it was pegged by the agency was to spare the rest of Metro Manila. Unfortunately, the Typhoon got stronger, changed direction as it roared through the metropolis without warning.

If you may ask what has gone terribly wrong? The following day after the storm has struck, 14th of July 2010, one hundred four (104) people perished in the storm that has struck at midnight, where most people are unaware, the agency raised the Public Storm Warning Signal No. 1 to 2, as it pummeled Metro Manila and the environs, toppled trees, mangled transmission lines causing massive blackouts in the National Capital Region (NCR), and adjacent provinces at the cost of Billions of property damage and vital infrastructures. That was the last straw. Politics did the works, but ultimately, there has to be another way!

Unending Dilemma Continues To Thrive

A month later, after a speedy investigation, the PAGASA Chief was removed from his post, the country’s top chief pegged the agency a time frame of revamping its prehistoric approaches. Change came swiftly as the demoted Dr. Nilo was immediately replaced by then Science Undersecretary Graciano Yumul as officer in charge, which only this year, on 12th of March, he has tendered his resignation due to “Personal reasons,” after twenty-eight (28) years of government service. During the tenure of Usec. Yumul, a deadly series of Typhoon incidence and higher damage infliction to the country and increased incidence of deaths all associated with a flawed network of information that has evidently transgressed the system and the manner of disseminating the right message to the public, the last cataclysmic Tropical Storm to have erased an entire community across Northern and Eastern Mindanao last year was caused by a “Stealthy, unseasonal” an unorthodox system tagged as “Sendong,” known internationally as “Washi,” to everyone’s deadly surprise! One could entirely blame the lack of understanding and irresponsibility of some, not all, but take a look at the picture and find out where the trouble started? Blame game are just for starters.

In the duration of its rampaging torrents of rains on 16-18 December 2011, it took the lives of many, reaching more than 2,000 deaths, others weren’t lucky to be recovered at the cost of multibillion losses to infrastructure and relief efforts wherein sister cities of Iligan and Cagayan de Oro were amongst the badly hit regions, to include many more provinces in Southern Visayas of Dumaguete City and Central Mindanao.

A New Era Has Come

As the Aquino Presidency entered its third year of governance, a huge chunk of veritable changes has been in the works, that included PAGASA’s multi-billion dollar modernization and upgrading of its older facilities nationwide. It has been regarded as one important step in achieving its goals and the performance of its mandate since the agency was founded in 1865.

The latest Japan-built multimillion-pesoDoppler Radar facility, was inaugurated in Bato, Catanduanes Province on 3rd of May 2012 as the first of three such stations to be erected in Typhoon-prone spots all over the country. The government has been all hands deck in the establishment of other weather monitoring equipment across the archipelago in order to muster the current weather conditions while the state-of-the-art Doppler Radar facilities are continually being interconnected and tested for its dependability and essentially provide adequate data beamed back to its central office in Quezon City. A standby generator has also been provided to power the Doppler Radar facility and the station, including lighting units where seven (7) Surface observatory stations located in Legazpi City in Albay, Daet in Sorsogon, Virac, Calapan City, Catarman and Romblon Island.

In a paper I’ve read, it was learned that a whopping Php 1.7 Billion was availed by the Aquino government via the Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA), to erect the station in Bato, Catanduanes Province, a Php580 millionprice tag to be exact, was funded by grant aid and another two (2) similar facilities in Aparri, Cagayan in the Northernmost region of Luzon, and in Guiuan, Eastern Samar, where most of the Typhoons make landfall there. Also, the Buenavista facility is the eighth (8th) Doppler Radar station in the country, with the other seven (7) funded by the Philippine government.

“We must continue focusing more of our resources on creating a system that will better warn us and our people about possible typhoons,”Aquino lamented in an interview published in a national broadsheet, Inquirer.

At present, PAGASA has launched its newest program dubbed, “Project Nationwide Operational Assessment of Hazards (NOAH). Anyone can just check their website where four (4) operational Doppler Radar facilities across Luzon,Visayas and Mindanao.

In Luzon, the Subic Doppler Radar has been operational since last year and also the Tagaytay Doppler Radar station. In Central Visayas, Cebu Doppler Radar station has been operating for the past few months this year and further South, in Mindanao, the Hinatuan Doppler Radar station, one of the oldest site for PAGASA’s outdated Radar system has been retrofitted by latest technology and has been finally upgraded and are in operation. I would like to congratulate the untiring efforts of the people behind the project at PAGASA and we wish you all good luck and we do expect more from the current administration to capacitate and further enhance our people’s understanding the dynamics of meteorology in the light of surging Typhoons that frequent our land. Most common are the daily inclement weather that has its dire impacts to them, the vital installations and industries, and of course the fragile economy of the nation. We will be in close watch on the development as this make or break discourse could lead into something useful, and to better the future of our people and the nation.

I’d like also to point out that early this January 2012, our resident meteorologist Robert Speta wrote a story as regards to Doppler Radars across the Western Pacific. You can access it by clicking the link: http://www.westernpacificweather.com/?p=2201

We at Westernpacificweather.com are aiming to provide you a better light of information, fast, accurate and on-time with a network of dedicated people across Asia the best we could!

Keep it here for more tropical updates from across the region, and also, if you’re interested to join in our discussion forum at Westernpacificforecast.com, just ask one of the authors here for the most up-to-date and well-informed netizens in the region

That would be all from me, your Weatherguy, hailing from the Philippines saying “Stay safe and be one step ahead of the weather!” 😉

Iloilo City, Philippines, 23 April 2012, (1600Z)–For the last five (5) days in a row of intense heat associated with the prevailing “Ridge of High Pressure,” just to the Northeast of the Philippine Sea, with temperatures soaring high as 38C in most of Northern Luzon Provinces, our tenacious little Tropical Disturbance off the Southeastern edge of Palau Island, Federated Island of Micronesia has come back to life after almost defeated by the drier conditions in the past four (4) days or so. Now that Shearing levels in the Upper atmosphere remains low, and Oceanographic values remain favourable, the system has finally entered into a new phase of life as moisture-laden clouds made a push towards the West, in a line of active thunderstorms flaring across the near-Equatorial region has led to the enhanced development of Invest 97W for the last 24 hrs.

I am made to believe that the system has a lease of life since its conception between 23 April and 24 April 2012, where most of the experts on this field of meteorology would agree on the point of warming oceans breed tenacious tropical systems that are capable of traversing vast distances longer that perceived before.

In my recent post athttp://www.theboplive.net, “Warm oceans are breeding grounds of intense storm systems, and those regions where precipitable amounts of water vapor are most candidate for rapid intensification, which most scientists and meteorologists agree as main cause of intensification phase rate ranging from within five (5) to fifteen (15%) boost potential and right conditions as regards to Wind shear and terrain variables that affects the lifespan of storms and the way they are expected to behave.”

Fig. 1.0 "MTSAT IR Imagery indicating how large the lump of clouds wrapping around Tropical Disturbance 97W as it intensifies further along the Southeastern edge of Mindanao coast. Image Courtesy: RAMMB/CIRA."

Again, I am bound to follow more than an impression, but on a generational scale, indeed, these Tropical Cyclones gather immense energy derived from the “Heat,” from the world’s oceans, and other atmospheric values such as Wind shear, Upper-level winds and prevailing weather systems should correspond to seasonal wind systems that would tend to support a stable region for tropical development.
Meantime, yesterday’s severe weather across Hong Kong territory associated with a “Trough of Low,” has now developed into a “Frontal system,” just North of Basco, Batanes and Taiwan Island. The said weather system should induce some showers extending from Northwest of Laoag City, Ilocos Sur and as far as Northeast towards the Ryukus Island Group in Southern tip of Japan, to include Naha in Okinawa.

Current Position:

As of 1832Z (0232AM-PHL/MAL), Tropical Disturbance “97W” has been located at 6.0N-129.5E, approximately 470 km East-southeast of Davao City, Philippines. Winds have reached 40 km/hr near the center, barometric readings at 1006 hPa at the moment, and is tracking Northwest at 15 km/hr.

Fig. 2.0 "An MTSAT IR Imagery I got from our colleague in Germany, Mike Adcock of the US Air Force depicting the increasingly huge banding that has been happening overnight within the system. You could immediately tell that this system could potentially have greater impacts to land mass especially terrain along the coast and hinterlands and some possibility of landslides happening and flooding. Image Credit: MTSAT IR, Mike Adcock."

It is forecast to move inland along the Eastern coast of Mindanao later evening today, Sunday, 29 April 2012 through Monday, 30 April 2012 if it maintains acceleration due West-northwest. Flooding potentials of 150 mm of rainfall totals in 24-hr period upon landfall could be expected in this system as “Orographic lift,”should bring enhanced cloudiness along the coastal regions of Southern and Eastern Mindanao as of posting in line with the banding wrapping near the system’s core, LLCC. Its outer bands have already reached the Northern edges of Mindanao and more convective rain band are slowly creeping inland which covers most of Central Mindanao by dawn breaking today.

NASA’s TRMM has been indicating a hefty 67-68 mmrainfall accumulation in a 24-hr period pegged for the system at the moment while at sea, and other sources of information I got was that the purples are evidently becoming more broader as it feeds on the relatively high sea-surface temperature as part of the “Diurnal,” processes a Tropical system are expected to undergo.

Flash floods and possible landslides especially along danger zones and mountain slopes are vulnerable during a storm so people along these areas should be warned of the dangers of staying in there, and would be wise enough to prepare and follow more than instinct but better judgment by staying on alert at all times. We will never know who’s lives would be spared from another tragedy such as last year’s worst–Tropical Storm “27W/Washi,” locally known as “Sendong,”that left vast tracts of lands and cities awash by torrential rains and the deluge that followed through, killing 1,300 people and sending thousands into shelters, and damages into almost Php2.2 Billions in infrastructure and agriculture. This time, who knows who’s life would be saved, it could be yours.

Fig. 3.0 "Another closer look at the system spawning some sporadic thunderstorms across the Eastern and Southeastern periphery of Mindanao. Image Credit: RAMMB/CIRA."

I am especially proud that our weather bureau, Philippine Atmospheric Geophysical & Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) has been following the development since last night, and continues to do so in keeping up with the latest of the system. The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) in Pearl Harbour, Hawaii Island,USA and the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) in Tokyo, Japan has yet to issue warnings on the system.

Hope all folks in Mindanao got the news, adequate, fresh and right!

More details as the system progresses further.

This would be all for now, from your Weatherguy, hailing from the Philippines! =)

With data from NRL Mry, HKO, PAGASA and Westernpacificweather.com

(Note: If you have queries, email me at amanzan@smartbro.net or through weatherguyadonis@theboplive.net)

Record Scorcher Across Western Pacific, Blowing Yellow Sand Tracks To Japan’s Northeast

Iloilo City, Philippines, 23 April 2012, (1600Z)–Intense heat induced by prevailing “Ridge of High Pressure,” along the Northwest Pacific has caused record-high temperatures across Southeast Asia. In Manila, Philippines alone, the state weather bureau, Philippine Atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) has yet again raised the alarm of excessive heat in the metro where Mercury rising rapidly at maximum of 36.8C at 0700Z (0300PM-PHL/MAL), recorded at Science Garden in Quezon City, and a lot higher at 38C in Cabanatuan City. Many Filipinos have been trying to keep cool under the heat of the Sun as this year’s Summer heat was among the most intense since 2010.

As the heat continues to peak usually this April, a respite from all these has not yet arrived and there had been observations that in the country alone, for the last decade, the number of hotter-than-usual periods have become more evident, which now ushers lesser number of hours of cooling, as a result, the relative humidity in cities across the country have been intensely associated with the prevalence of concrete structures and lesser vegetation as compared to the rural areas where lush trees, open spaces and adequate interval between structures can still be found.

At some point there had been sporadic rains associated with the “Orographic lift,” from which warm air collides with cold air, where such occurrence usually happen along the terrains or near bodies of water, that could produce precipitable water in the clouds, that could propagate rain-bearing thunderstorms, if all things go well into place.

Fig. 1.0 "Westernpacificweather.com's newest Surface Analysis now available to viewers in the region. This innovation has been made possible to provide informational tools to all our valued guests and viewers who continues to support us! Map Courtesy: MTSAT-EUMETSAT."

In Thailand capital Bangkok, temperatures soar at 40C, one of the most extreme in the region so far, wherein Tropical moisture have become trapped especially in the metropolis heat where paved roads, wide concrete spaces and towering superstructures tend to trap in the heat and increase the “Real-feel,”of the human body as relative humidity also shoots up and as “H2O molecules,”becomes super-heated, the air becomes rapidly evaporates and condensation do not eventually result to rain-bearing clouds, which only add up to the unbearable heat.

Terrible Heat Spawn Thunderstorms

Usually, “Cumulonimbus,” (Cb) clouds form due to rising of warm air and colliding with cooler winds produce rain-bearing clouds, but are commonly referred to as developing thunderstorms, which shoots higher into the upper atmosphere several thousands of kilometers in altitude to begin a process of evaporation and condensation that could potentially bring some severe weather, at some point lead to “Hail” storms and in some occasions, they become so severe, it may produce some “Tornado,” in the process.

Malaysia Peninsula, however got some cloudy periods but less rainfall was being reported. Borneo however, has gotten some precipitation today under the intense tropical heat.

Severe Weather Over Hong Kong Territory

In Hong Kong, authorities have been issuing warnings for potentially “Severe,”storms brought about by a lingering “Low” over the territory which has traversed Central China for the last two (2) days. It has already brought huge amounts of rainfall and lightning storms can be seen across the metropolis throughout the night. The said weather system should continue to track Eastwards, reaching Northern Taiwan by tomorrow afternoon, and by Sunday, it should affect the Southern seaboards of theKorean Peninsula and once again, Japanese coast can expect another wave of severe weather, with potential for high winds, thundery rains well into Monday work-week if the system does not stall over the Yellow Sea and Sea of Japan in the process.

At the moment, a choking and blinding “Dust storm,”from the Gobi Desert, has been whipping towards the Yellow Sea from Northern and Eastern Chinese border. The Westerlies prevailing over the region, compounded by dry winds blowing to the East, as the exiting “Low,” that has traversed over Japanese Islands these past few days have been tracking Northeastwards, pulling along with it the “Yellow wind,”dubbed as “Aeolian sand,” which has now reached the Northernmost region of Hokkaido.

The said phenomenon intervenes with visibility in the region, and at times, cancellation of transportation can add up to the anxiety especially during windy conditions.

Tropical Disturbance “97W,” has been battered by the persistent “Ridge of High Pressure,” North of it for the last three-four (3-4 ) days now, and the compounding drier region of air mass has been inflicting detrimental conditions to its “Low-level circulation center,” (LLCC). The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) in Hawaii Island, USA has pegged the system has a “Low” chance of development.

Looking Forward Into The Forecast

Meanwhile, the trailing Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) across the Tropics, has been more evident along the lower Pacific, near the Equator, which has yet to usher more thunderstorm activity Westwards, and has a potential to spawn a Tropical Cyclone in the foreseeable weeks.

This would be all for now, from your Weatherguy, hailing from the Philippines! =)