username5243 wrote:Okay, I think it was because I made notes for them in my analysis post, to see if anyone noticed (by their names), but then someone pointed it out, so I finally did it.

username5243 wrote:SDK: Five posts. Mostly grilling me (I meant that there's only two or three power roles, and lots of vanilla townies. Okay?) First to random vote (I hadn't posted yet then). Seems to ask questions of others too. Neutral-scum, probably one of the scummier ones so far. @experienced players: Is this normal for SDK?

Opus_723 wrote:Yablo: His posts jumped out at me while I was catching up. He offers that username is the safest random lynch and points out that his behavior is dangerous even if he's town. But he walks it back really hard when moody criticizes the idea, even double posting to clarify and pointing out that username is "not unhelpful", which seems contradictory to his previous post. I don't know if this reads like a newbie overreacting to a rebuke or like scum edging toward a lynch and then backing off when he gets noticed. It felt funny, though. Either way, the interaction makes it seem unlikely to me that Yablo and moody are a scum team, as adnapemit seems to be implying. I think at least one of them is town.

I didn't walk anything back. I clarified because it seemed like my meaning was being taken the wrong way. When I referred to username as "the safest random lynch", I meant that in a hypothetical situation where a vote is mandatory. I thought it was obvious that I would understand lynching at random is a bad idea. That's why I clarified with a bit more analysis on the subject; to show that I understand the underlying math.

As for username being unhelpful, he's avoided questions (or overlooked them), and demanded answers to his own questions. That's not helpful behavior, but I don't consider it unhelpful either, really. Unhelpful behavior would be like derailing the conversation or misdirecting it to focus on irrelevant or nit-picky details.

username5243 wrote:Okay, not much to read...Yep, SDK and bessie are working to get me lynched. SDK looks like he's doing it more, and bessie has done some other stuff anyway, so I'll:

Vote SDK

Or this, I guess. This is basically OMGUSing as I understand it, and I would say that qualifies as unhelpful.

If you like Call of Cthulhu and modern government conspiracy, check out my Delta Green thread.Please feel free to ask questions or leave comments.

Yablo wrote:I didn't walk anything back. I clarified because it seemed like my meaning was being taken the wrong way. When I referred to username as "the safest random lynch", I meant that in a hypothetical situation where a vote is mandatory. I thought it was obvious that I would understand lynching at random is a bad idea. That's why I clarified with a bit more analysis on the subject; to show that I understand the underlying math.

As for username being unhelpful, he's avoided questions (or overlooked them), and demanded answers to his own questions. That's not helpful behavior, but I don't consider it unhelpful either, really. Unhelpful behavior would be like derailing the conversation or misdirecting it to focus on irrelevant or nit-picky details.

So you thought that username's behavior was dangerous but his actions weren't unhelpful? I guess that doesn't have to be a contradiction, though I wouldn't have thought of it like that. Anyway, my point was mostly that you and moody don't seem like a team to me, despite repeated notes from people that you agree on a lot of things. I thought that interaction seemed genuinely... awkward, I guess?

username5243, the most important thing is to contribute to the discussion. If you contribute, you will be viewed as pro town, because talking is how we find scum. If you don’t contribute, you will be viewed as anti town. It doesn’t matter if you’re the most powerful town role ever, if you don’t post you aren’t helping catch scum. The quality of your posts is somewhat important, but a lurker will often get lynched over someone who is very active (unless they are very scummy). Your contribution to the game depends on your style, and is different for everyone. I tend to be in the “analyzing everyone” group. I do long analysis posts where I rank every player, summarize their content, and give my opinion on their towniness/scumminess (probably will get to this later tonight). And my scumdar is not really all that great so you don’t see a lot of “gut instinct” analysis from me. I tend to be a more technical player and fixate on details (you pointed out that you thought I was grilling you). So even though I cautioned earlier against mass claims because they lead to analyzing the game and not the players, I admit that is the type of analysis I am best at. SDK’s style is much different. He doesn’t normally do summary lists. He usually analyzes one player per post, and is very thorough. I see we have quite a few list makers in this game, which is great, I do like lists.

Echo244 wrote:Yablo and moody are agreeing strongly on things but they're things I mostly find agreeable too, so I'm not reading "scumbuddies" in to that.

Maybe not. When I made my last post I though it was more likely one of the two were Mafia rather than both.

I've been slightly busy so I haven't posted much.I'm starting to think SDK has forgotten about this game.

I also like lists, I find them easy to compare how everyone is viewed by each other.I think I need to reread everything again, I have lots of suspects for Mafia (8 of them to be precise) but no evidence.

I’ve also been busy and am not getting very far on my list. I will post what I have to keep the game moving and will get to everyone else tonight.

adnapemit – I like this remark in support of random voting: “I support random voting because even getting reactions on if random voting is good or bad is useful. Any opinions on anything are good.” I agree, because even though I don’t do random voting myself I support anything to start discussion. Odd push for username to answer questions, points out to him that the delay is making him more suspicious, then she tries to swing votes away from username and on to his attackers. IGMEOY adnapemit.

Echo244 – Dislikes random voting, likes setup speculation (so do many people on this forum, you will fit right in).

Echo244 wrote:Everyone is a confirmed townie to mafia. But mafia would be targetting the townies that would be confirmed town to everyone else.

Exactly. Which is why if anyone has investigation results tomorrow, they need to think carefully before claiming those results. Echo has been asking questions and encouraging discussion, and I am getting a town read from her.

Faubiguy – Only two posts. Has explained that he can’t find much to say, but made a list of reads. I agree that D1 is difficult and we will probably make mistakes, but the most important thing is to continue contributing so good to see he posted what you had, even though he didn’t think it was much. Neutral pending more information.

Moody7277 – I think moody has the most consistent style of anyone I have played with and I will never be able to tell his scum game from his town game. I'll reread his content later but for now neutral.

(I started writing this post yesterday. I haven't forgotten about this game, just busy now and I didn't realise I hadn't posted in either of my games until someone pointed it out in the other.)

Guess it's probably been three days since I last posted here too, right? Hello! Let's get to work.

I've got a pretty strong town read on Opus. His posts are long and strong, he takes stances on basically everyone, and he made a mistake with the setup (something that more commonly comes from town since scum know the numbers).

bessie feels pretty good based on previous games with her. She's working, at least, and it seems to be genuine.

Echo's also feeling solid, but I've seen her work before and have come to respect this particular newbie.

username5243 is still scum. I don't care that he ignored questions so much - I haven't checked myself, but I can see that kind of behaviour as his meta. The big thing that stands out to me is his voting patterns. They don't make sense coming from a townie. username votes me for being suspicious, I suppose because I said something confusing: "My votes are always serious". That confusion is cleared up, username unvotes. Fine. The problem comes in when he votes me again before I even make another post, now because I'm trying to get him lynched. My "trying" here would have been a random vote, followed by a couple of questions. That's beyond town paranoia, username is scared enough that he sees questions as accusations.

In addition to that, we've got a good number of minor scumtells here from his analysis post. 1) username waffles on almost every point, calling most people both town and scum down the list. Showing no commitment is scummy, especially his last paragraph where he labels five players as scummy then seems to claim that he has no town reads at all. 2) That same post is self-conscious as well: "I just didn't know that everyone analyzing everyone was normal" worded as an excuse rather than a call to action, if that makes sense.3) Restatement of his defense to my question: "I meant that there's only two or three power roles, and lots of vanilla townies. Okay?" My question was not so aggressive to warrant this coming from a townie. He's clearly very worried that I've caught him.

Then some weaker stuff in that he was eager to start the game, yet didn't get properly involved for 48 hours (scum tend to avoid RVS more than town), and now prodding people to action only because he's going to get lynched. Could have come from town, but more likely to come from scum, I think. In any case, I'm 95% sure this is not a case of a misguided townie, meta or not. I'm happy with my vote.

Yablo would be my pick for username's scum buddy, assuming I'm right about that. He had a bit of a scummy first post, but otherwise feels okay. My point of contention is his defense of username in a "he's totally scum, but don't lynch him" kinda way. Math without a conclusion is sometimes considered a scumtell elsewhere, but this is xkcd, so... you know. Other than a mostly neutral rundown of the players, Yablo has talked about username and not much else. We'll see where this goes.

Time Panda is unreadable at present.

adnapemit wrote:A better option would be if he is mafia to try and lynch whoever he is working with or if he isn't mafia to work out who is trying to get him lynched.Does anyone have any theories?

You know my theory now. What do you think of my theory? Do you have a theory of your own? If you're convinced username is scum enough to be hunting for his buddies, why haven't you been coming out more strongly against him?

faubiguy is in the same boat. Perhaps leaning slightly townie based on gut feel for his language.

faubiguy wrote:If I had to guess scumteam right now, I'd say username and SDK based on how they've been interacting so far, but that's very speculative.

Can you point to that interaction that you think is suspicious? What do you think of my comment that Yablo could be his scumbuddy?

In general, faubiguy, how would you expect a scum player to play mafia? Not in this game, but in general. What would you look for in a post to determine if the person posting it is scum or town?

moody, how about an updated reads list from you? You haven't really given much content this game at all.

SDK: True, but the fact that you stick with your first vote makes me suspicious, and I think that you are not changing. Is there anything I can do to convince you to change? And you bessie?? You're cleared for explaining what I'm doing wrong (for now).

Stuff like this is always hard, especially in a semi-open setup. My inclination is to go ahead with the lynch just so we don't have to start talking about roles right now. There's a very good chance you're just fishing for a role or two as a last ditch effort. What I mean is, there is no risk for scum to make that claim - one of three things will happen: 1) You convince everyone and avoid the lynch, 2) You get lynched, but get the power roles to speak up to give your partner a better shot, or 3) You get lynched anyway (which is what would happen if you kept your mouth shut anyway).

... Given the late hour and the fact that we already have nearly every player calling you scum, I want you to specificially claim your role. That way a counterclaim is easier - one townie speaks up with simply "That's impossible", and the scum won't know whether they were the same role you claimed or if we're just in a different mode of the game that makes that role impossible. As it is now, counterclaiming you basically requires a mass claim.

In answer to your question, here's a question for you: Do you think scum is more or less likely than town to stick to an RVS vote after getting evidence? Is there a point where I should have moved my vote to someone else, but didn't because I'm scum? Who do you think I should be voting for?

It's not a matter of experience, it's a matter of mindset. You showed a scum mindset. That is, a mindset with a goal of lynching for fabricated reasons with all the fear that goes along with it.

Sorry about the RVS - I tried to avoid jargon. Not sure how that one slipped in there since this site doesn't even use the term. RVS = Random Voting Stage. Essentially the beginning of the game.

At this point I would encourage everyone who is not vanilla to check the game matrix and see if their role is compatible with a jailkeeper being in the game. If it's not, or if you are the jailkeeper yourself, either state "That's impossible" with no further explanation... or just lynch username and don't worry about it? Bah. I'm not quite so sure about this read to just lynch a potential confirmed townie... Do we just mass claim? Problem is, I don't have a better lead. Yablo might be an okay lynch, but he's kinda tied to username being scum... Thoughts anyone?

Opus_723]"So you thought that username's behavior was dangerous but his actions weren't unhelpful? I guess that doesn't have to be a contradiction, though I wouldn't have thought of it like that.[/quote]It's more that I think username's behavior was dangerous in previous games, and he's showed signs of heading that direction this time (for instance, I've referred to his typical voting style as "Pin the Tail on the Donkey"), but at the point in time where I made the comment you reference, he hadn't yet done anything but show signs. Now he's OMGUSed with his vote on SDK. That's scummy to me, and if he's town, that qualifies as unhelpful and dangerous.

[quote="SDK wrote:username5243 is still scum. I don't care that he ignored questions so much - I haven't checked myself, but I can see that kind of behaviour as his meta. The big thing that stands out to me is his voting patterns. They don't make sense coming from a townie.

They really don't make sense coming from a townie, and that's what I thought the first game we were both in (where we were both town). The second game, he was the same, but I knew he wasn't scum (because I was). I suspected him of being the jester for a while, but it seems like it's just his style.

SDK wrote:Yablo would be my pick for username's scum buddy, assuming I'm right about that. He had a bit of a scummy first post, but otherwise feels okay. My point of contention is his defense of username in a "he's totally scum, but don't lynch him" kinda way.

I don't mean anything I've said about username thus far to be taken as defending him, but I do think it's important for us to consider that his behavior is more or less consistent, and that he was town both previous games.

SDK wrote:Yablo has talked about username and not much else. We'll see where this goes.

Yes. Let's see where this goes. You say my comments focus on him, but really, I'm mostly responding to comments by others. I do agree that he seems scummy, but being newish to the game, I'm still pretty conservative with my voting and accusations. So far, no one has done anything that makes me sure they're mafia, but I've been adjusting my sliders. Like Bessie, I've got a strong preference for the technical side as opposed to going with my gut. I totally understand why you might think he's scum, and honestly, I fully support your decision to leave your vote where it is. In fact, I've got his slider further toward the Mafia side than anyone else's.

SDK wrote:At this point I would encourage everyone who is not vanilla to check the game matrix and see if their role is compatible with a jailkeeper being in the game. If it's not, or if you are the jailkeeper yourself, either state "That's impossible" with no further explanation...

I'm struggling with whether or not that's a good idea. Suppose username is scum: whoever says "That's impossible" paints a target on themselves for N1. The only people who could falsify his claim would be a potential cop, doctor, or tracker. If the doctor does it, there are no other protective roles, and they would die at night. The cop or tracker would have better odds, but there's still a 50/50 chance that they don't have a doctor to back them up. That's 6 total outcomes, 4 of which involve us losing a power role, so worse than even odds. Maybe that's not a bad trade for lynching a scum, but it's not great.

If he's scum and no one speaks up, we have the opportunity to lynch him without outing any power roles on D1.

If username is town... then I think we're in a bad spot. There aren't any other protective roles in those setups, so even if we don't lynch him, scum would just kill him. At least we would get a second shot at lynching scum, but we'd have to decide quickly with one day left before deadline.

Overall, I feel like we're in a bad situation, and I don't see any great ways out of it.

If he is telling the truth:There is a chance nobody could say it is impossible because the other town player on the matrix is a vanilla townie. Lynching him could remove the only power role.There could also be a bulletproof townie who would know if there is a chance username is telling the truth.

If he is lying:He could be the mafia roleblocker and have picked a likely power role for the game but this is risky because anyone who is a cop, doctor or tracker would immediately know he is lying.He could also be just a goon and is claiming that because there is a mafia role blocker or both mafia are goons. This is again risky because there would be players who could easily tell if he was lying.He could also be a vanilla townie which I think is least likely as he would have no way to guess what other role exist and just picked one at random.

I don't like the anyone saying "It's impossible" because all it would take is a scum player to say it and everyone would lynch username anyway.A counter claim would be nice but that would be painting a target on anyone who claims and is a bad idea.I'm still inclined to believe he is telling the truth, but if he is lying he is the mafia roleblocker.I also still think looking for and lynching a different player who is mafia is a good idea, then if he survives the night we lynch username d2.

adnapemit: reads post with everyone listed as neutral except me, who she finds suspicious. post leaning against username, but doesn't want to vote him, wants to connect Yablo and me, but in connection with finding me suspicious, likes reads list format. basically, having all neutral reads but me and not doing anything about it while still following the username suspicion pings me a bit. her latest post repeats what I had as an analysis of user's claim, which puts her at neutral.

bessie: details on how claiming now would not be as useful as one might expect. votes username for lack of content. post being pleased that he did start contributing. reads/meta post. still looks townie

Echo244: reads list with user most suspicious, adnapemit, Yablo, Opus most townie. her analysis on the username wagon with the usefulness to scum is more or less what I'd figure if user is town. townie

faubiguy: random votes Yablo (would normally be a little late for one, but this is his first content post), reads giving username most suspicious, SDK and Yablo neutral, everyone else townie. light on content plus following along with the username suspicion wagon looks slightly scummy

Opus_723: pleased with my setup analysis, reads list has username most scummy, followed by adnapemit, Yablo neutral, everyone else townish. discussion with bessie over setup, username, with some discussion with username himself. still seems townie

SDK: townie reads on bessie, Echo, Opus, analysis on username that supports his scum opinion of username, figures Yablo is the other scum. reaction to username's claim, with the caveat that user was still acting scummy. looks townie

username5243: reads post with either SDK-bessie or me-Yablo scum teams. first looks like retaliation for SDK's suspicion, second doesn't make much sense because separately he calls us both town looking. re votes SDK. gets a little snippy about lack of content. claims jailkeeper. still looks slightly scummy

Yablo: reads list with username and faubiguy most scummy, although actually rated at neutral. next few posts about math are more of why people want to link me and Yablo. response to Opus re lynching an unhelpful townie. most recent reads sliders have username most suspicious, followed by faubiguy and SDK. slightly townie

Vote: faubiguy

The story of my life in xkcdmafia:

Tigerlion wrote:Well, I imagine as the game progresses, various people will be getting moody.

BoomFrog wrote:I still have no idea what town moody really looks like.

Opus_723 – Lots of content, sharing thoughts about the setup and reads on players, asking questions and pushing others for content. I can’t point to anything in particular but I have a good solid townie read on Opus.

SDK - Starts out with what appears to be a random vote on username (I’ve been wondering about this, was this really a random vote?). Has been helpful to the newbies, but I would expect this from SDK regardless of his alignment. Unfortunately his content was pretty light for most of the week, so most of his posts have been focusing on username. He finally did make a long post with his reads, I agree with most of it. Good analysis on claiming situation. Townie.

Yablo – Has posted a lot of content. But reading through his posts, I notice he has spent a lot of time defending username, and justifying it. But he also lives himself a little wiggle room, saying that username would be the safest random lynch.

Yablo wrote:Nothing has really seemed troubling yet, but I'll give username a little time. He tends to make things interesting. Trying to follow his logic can sometimes be like turning Pin the Tail on the Donkey into a drinking game. Still, whether I like his methods or not, he's been vindicated in the end game.

Yablo wrote:Still, while his methods are unorthodox, dangerous, and mildly annoying, they've been effective. Whether it's method in madness or just luck, I don't know. I'm inclined to believe it's luck as I've only seen him in two games.

Can you explain this, or point to some examples from previous games?

Yablo wrote:As for username being unhelpful, he's avoided questions (or overlooked them), and demanded answers to his own questions. That's not helpful behavior, but I don't consider it unhelpful either, really. Unhelpful behavior would be like derailing the conversation or misdirecting it to focus on irrelevant or nit-picky details.

This is an interesting observation. How can you know what is irrelevant until you’ve analyzed it? And I think that sometimes it is the nit-picky details that catch scum (see Vanillafia).

Username5243 – Scummy right out of the gate, for reasons I covered in this post. After my vote, he did make a nice long analysis post, but made sure that we knew this contribution was being done on his terms, and he still didn’t answer questions he had been asked.

username5243 wrote:Okay, I'll analyze if I must...

...

I just didn't know that everyone analyzing everyone was normal. I will answer your questions later.

Then he actually demanded content from others.

username5243 wrote:*taps foot*

Where is everybody? We've got mafia to lynch!

When he did finally answer questions, I got the impression that he automatically expected to be cleared of suspicion.

username5243 wrote:Now, I'll be lynched at deadline if no one removes their vote, so I encourage them to (or others to vote on people.)

His behavior has been so scummy in this game that I really wasn’t expecting him to claim a power town role. I am inclined not to believe it, but there have been no counterclaims.

SDK wrote:At this point I would encourage everyone who is not vanilla to check the game matrix and see if their role is compatible with a jailkeeper being in the game. If it's not, or if you are the jailkeeper yourself, either state "That's impossible" with no further explanation... or just lynch username and don't worry about it?

I’m struggling as to whether or not this is a good idea too. If it was later in the game, I think trading a town power role for scum would be a good trade, but on D1 it would leave us with one mafia and possibly no power roles, and that lone mafia member will be hard to catch because there will be no scum interactions on later days to analyze.

adnapemit wrote:I don't like the anyone saying "It's impossible" because all it would take is a scum player to say it and everyone would lynch username anyway.

Yes but that person would be instantly lynched tomorrow if username flips town. Trading mafia goon for jailkeeper would be a bad trade for mafia.

I think username is already dead because if he survives the night he will probably be lynched/mislynched tomorrow. And I don’t have any other strong scum reads so I’m going to leave my vote where it is for now, but I will reread the thread and hopefully we have some more content to analyze before deadline. I would especially like to see another post from faubiguy, who is slipping on my scum scale because he’s not posting and because he never removed his random vote on Yablo. Random voting stage is long over, and if you want to keep your vote on Yablo you need to justify it.

Username's initial power role claim is quite suspicious to me. Obviously town would want to avoid lynching a power role, but by not claiming which one in particular it means the claim can't be countered by someone who has either the same role or a role that can't exist at the same time. This would be a better strategy for scum who's worried about being lynched than town who would be better off claimign a specific role. If he's telling the truth about being jailkeeper, as others have noted scum would probably kill him anyway rather than let him live as confirmed town and a power role.

As such, along with how I was already feeling about username,Unvote (yablo)Vote username5243

[quote=SDK]Can you point to that interaction that you think is suspicious? What do you think of my comment that Yablo could be his scumbuddy?[/quote]Mostly just the way you put the first random vote on username, than, then his response to that. As I said, it's very speculative and merely my best guess, but not necessary very likely. I can also see how Yablo's interactions with/references to username draw attention, but I'm not sure how much importance I'd assign to that.

[quote=SDK]In general, faubiguy, how would you expect a scum player to play mafia? Not in this game, but in general. What would you look for in a post to determine if the person posting it is scum or town?[/quote]Scum are going to be playing more defensively, trying to avoid getting themself of their partners lynched and to throw town off track. I'd look for suggesting a lot of reasons other players might be scum (and therefore be worth lynching) and trying to avoid giving away too much information themselves. And since they're arguing against the hidden facts, their posts would be more likely to contain information that contradicts or at least fits less well with that is known, and avoiding details that would place suspicion on them more than other details.

---

It looks like I'll likely be lynched at this point, and I don't really have any defense, but if there's anything I can answer to help if I'm lynched and flip town I will.

So we lynched the jailkeeper...At least we are closer to knowing what roles there are..although it also means there is no doctor, tracker or cop...

I just noticed that I didn't reply to this because I was distracted by usernames claim:

SDK wrote:

adnapemit wrote:A better option would be if he is mafia to try and lynch whoever he is working with or if he isn't mafia to work out who is trying to get him lynched.Does anyone have any theories?

You know my theory now. What do you think of my theory? Do you have a theory of your own? If you're convinced username is scum enough to be hunting for his buddies, why haven't you been coming out more strongly against him?

I wasn't convinced enough to be hunting for buddies, I was providing a reason for everyone who though he was to to not lynch him. I just thought it was a better to try to use everyone trying to get username lynched as a good start for finding who was scum. It's even a better point now that he has been confirmed as Jailkeeper.

Right now faubiguy is the most suspicious with lots of inactivity and then posting close to the deadline. The three who didn't vote are next on my list of suspicion, I'd like to know their reasons. SDK and Bessie are not without suspicion as they voted for someone who was town, but are lowest because I can see how username could appear scummy even if I wasn't convinced.

I didn't vote because I didn't see anyone particularly to vote *for*. username was being scummy and unhelpful but I think that's just him, and he got lynched for it, and now town has lost the Jailkeeper. faubiguy was lurky, so he's now top of my new scum list, but my suspicion wasn't pushed high enough to vote for him. I was bit wary of bessie and SDK, they've been quite helpful but I've wondering what's hiding behind their friendliness. None of that was enough for anyone to stick out enough for a vote, and I didn't just want to pile on someone or vote randomly for the bottom of my scum list.

Now bessie and SDK both piled on the username wagon. moody's dead. I have a sneaky theory that, as a newbie game with experienced players, we might have a one-experienced-player-plus-one-new-player scumteam... thoughts?

Unstoppable force of nature. That means she/her/hers.Has committed an act of treason.

Note to self: username really is a loose cannon. That guy wasn't even playing the same game as us...

With the way the end of Day shook out there, along with moody's death, I think I'm up for faubiguy's lynch today.

faubiguy wrote:

SDK wrote:Can you point to that interaction that you think is suspicious? What do you think of my comment that Yablo could be his scumbuddy?

Mostly just the way you put the first random vote on username, than, then his response to that. As I said, it's very speculative and merely my best guess, but not necessary very likely. I can also see how Yablo's interactions with/references to username draw attention, but I'm not sure how much importance I'd assign to that.

What about username's response indicated that it was scum buddies you were looking at?

SDK wrote:In general, faubiguy, how would you expect a scum player to play mafia? Not in this game, but in general. What would you look for in a post to determine if the person posting it is scum or town?

Scum are going to be playing more defensively, trying to avoid getting themself of their partners lynched and to throw town off track. I'd look for suggesting a lot of reasons other players might be scum (and therefore be worth lynching) and trying to avoid giving away too much information themselves. And since they're arguing against the hidden facts, their posts would be more likely to contain information that contradicts or at least fits less well with that is known, and avoiding details that would place suspicion on them more than other details.[/quote]Okay, that's fair enough. Who fits that description?

Vote faubiguy.

Echo244 wrote:Now bessie and SDK both piled on the username wagon.

Why do you say "piled on"?

Echo244 wrote:I have a sneaky theory that, as a newbie game with experienced players, we might have a one-experienced-player-plus-one-new-player scumteam... thoughts?

It's possible that Suzaku lied to us, but from the first post: "Players will be assigned to roles randomly".

But let's say for a minute that Suzaku had never written that. Who would you lynch? If they flipped town, would you lynch the other?

"Piled on" was perhaps the wrong phrase, it implies a sudden flurry rather than the slower accumulation we had. But you started with a random vote, and bessie stacked up on top - solid votes with reasoning based on objective analysis of username's behaviour, but without deviating when others (Yablo and myself, largely) sounded notes of caution based on his previous behaviour. Or after the Jailkeeper claim. Yeah, he's a loose cannon, but we've also lost our Jailkeeper - the only active power role we can have, according to the Matrix.

Erk, I forgot the random assignment. And I will discount Suzaku lying, this is explicitly bastardry-free.

If it was between you and bessie as experienced-player-in-an-experienced-plus-new-scum-duo... I dunno. bessie's style is more similar to mine, I think, so it reads slightly better to me, and I'd instinctively be leaning your way on a lynch, while watching how the two of you interacted. But that's all just what-iffery now.

I'm looking very hard at those who voted username. His jailkeeper claim plus uncertainty about him due to him being scummy and unhelpful anyway, regardless of actual alignment, should have pulled him through to D2. I wouldn't expect scum to leave that to chance - why not vote username and off the only power role? Similarly, I wouldn't expect scum to have been voting faubiguy at the end, either as scumbuddy-bussing or as just cheerfully voting for one of two townies up for the lynch.

Behaviourally, faubiguy has been scummiest, and voted username, after the uncontested Jailkeeper claim. I'd be fairly happy with lynching him too. But I'm still definitely looking very hard at all those who kept votes on username to put him in a tie with faubiguy. Votes can tell us a lot more than what people say.

Unstoppable force of nature. That means she/her/hers.Has committed an act of treason.

Well, that could have been better. username was the Jailkeeper, so we have either two mafia goons or a mafia roleblocker and a bulletproof townie left. With no town power role, the mafia roleblocker really isn't anything more than another goon, so I'm hoping we got Setup 1 instead of Setup 4. Bulletproof won't be a big advantage, but it's the best we can get. From here on out, I'm looking at this as a straight up 5 vs. 2.

We're down to 5 Town and 2 Mafia, but we have a lot to examine. First, a random lynch or random votes resulting in a lynch would be even worse an Day 2, but just to get my thoughts going, here are some numbers:

We have 7 remaining players and two possible setups, but if we count the Roleblocker as a goon, and Bulletproof Townie as vanilla, both setups are equal with 5 vanilla town and 2 mafia goons. This means a random lynch has a 71.43% chance of killing a townie, and only a 28.57% chance of killing a mafioso. Odds are exactly 2.5 to 1 (or 5 to 2) in favor of mafia in that case, and that's if they voted randomly, too, which they wouldn't.

Now for something more substantial. Suspicions and cautions were thrown around, but SDK and Bessie were the only ones to actually vote username.

SDK threw out a random vote in his first post, but he later justified leaving it due to username's voting patterns; totally reasonable, but he seemed to view any call for caution as support for someone he said was scum. I can't say I'd have felt differently in his place though.

bessie waited a while before placing her vote, and when she did, she gave three good reasons.

username's vote doesn't really matter; he was erratic as usual. He voted-unvoted-OMGUSed SDK, he unvoted his OMGUS and voted faubiguy, etc ...

In one of his rare posts, faubiguy voted me at random. His next post declares a neutral read on me, but he didn't bother to remove his vote until the last minute when he switched to username. This was convenient in that it tied the voting between himself and username giving him a 50/50 chance of survival.

adnapemit voted SDK at random and later unvoted.

Echo244 voted moody7277 at random because setup discussion was slow. She then unvoted after moody7277 provided what she called sensible comments.

I didn't vote either. I'm not sure my vote would have done much anyway. I didn't have anything more than very slight scum reads on username, faubiguy, and SDK (in decending order). As I stated earlier, if I were forced to vote in that situation, I'd likely have voted for username anyway.

Yablo wrote:I didn't vote either. I'm not sure my vote would have done much anyway. I didn't have anything more than very slight scum reads on username, faubiguy, and SDK (in decending order). As I stated earlier, if I were forced to vote in that situation, I'd likely have voted for username anyway.

It being a tie, your vote would have pushed it one way or the other for sure rather than leaving it to random.org.

This is why I'm more suspicious of those who voted username, to lynch the power role first, than I am of those who could have but didn't.

Unstoppable force of nature. That means she/her/hers.Has committed an act of treason.

Yablo wrote:SDK threw out a random vote in his first post, but he later justified leaving it due to username's voting patterns; totally reasonable, but he seemed to view any call for caution as support for someone he said was scum. I can't say I'd have felt differently in his place though.

For the record, it wasn't you supporting username that I took issue with. That was part of it, in particular the way you worded it, but it was the fact that you hadn't done basically anything else that bothered me most.

Echo244 wrote:This is why I'm more suspicious of those who voted username, to lynch the power role first, than I am of those who could have but didn't.

He hasn't given me much reason to believe he is. He's been pretty quiet, and I find it suspicious that he switched his vote to username at the last minute. To be fair, it was the only way to have a chance of saving himself, but to be so quiet, and then to pop in just in time to make the last vote is scummy to me. I would have to say he's leaning pretty heavily toward Mafia.

If you like Call of Cthulhu and modern government conspiracy, check out my Delta Green thread.Please feel free to ask questions or leave comments.

I would like to start by giving my thought s on the username lynch. This may either come across as a barrel of wine or super scummy, but this is a newbie game so I hope this will be helpful to newbies. Also, this is just what I think and other experienced players may not agree but here goes. I think it’s unfortunate username got lynched, because he was new and town and a power role, but I think that sometimes it’s in the best interests of town to get someone who is a distraction and/or playing in an anti-town manner out of the way early in the game. If that player is not lynched, they will continue to be the focus of discussion every day they are alive and scum can hide in the fog and pick off a townie every night. The worst case is if they make it to the final three, because the other townie has to choose between scummy-town and townie-scum. I haven’t played a lot of games but an example of one game where we lynched a claimed power town D1 because he was perceived as acting in an anti-town manner is Newbie Game Bird7P . (Disclaimer: this is in no way whatsoever meant to been seen as a comparison between Vytron and username, it is just an example of a similar situation. Vytron always plays in a manner that he believes is the best for his team and I have the utmost respect for him as a player.) And I guess you can argue it was successful. Scum never even made a kill in that game.

So let’s see where we are. Either entirely vanilla, or bulletproof townie and worthless power scum.

As username was my strongest scum read, I have everyone else as pretty much neutral right now. I’ll try to get some reads tonight. I’m hoping to find some clues in moody’s posts as to why he was selected for the night kill, because when he’s town is reads are usually pretty good. So hopefully you will hear more from me tonight.

Echo244 wrote: I have a sneaky theory that, as a newbie game with experienced players, we might have a one-experienced-player-plus-one-new-player scumteam... thoughts?

If you are correct about the makeup of the scum team, it is entirely a coincidence. Suzaku said the roles were assigned randomly, and I trust the integrity of this mod.

I have to say I'm leaning with Yablo. The last-minute self-preservation vote was scummy, particularly as it was against a non-counterclaimed power role claim. OK, faubiguy was under time pressure, but still, if faubiguy's town, winning that lynch-off has worked against the team.

I'm interested that bessie reads this as neutral.

I want to hear faubiguy defend himself.

I also want to hear from Opus and adnapemit.

Unstoppable force of nature. That means she/her/hers.Has committed an act of treason.

I don't really have much else to say. At this point I'm likely to vote faubiguy but I will give them a chance to post first.So to fill out this post I shall write my thoughts on potential scum teams.

With faubiguy as scum I would say bessie. I originally was going to write Opus or Yablo but in trying to construct an argument based on anything other than "feelings" I notice bessie ignored SDK's question asking for her read on faubiguy.If faubiguy isn't scum my next guess at a possible likely team would be SDK and bessie. Both voted for username.SDK is really hard for me to read, I've seen him play other forum games but haven't read any mafia games he has played.My final guess at a team would be bessie and Opus_723 both appear as the most townie if I only look at their posts and not their actions but I think appearances can be deceiving.If Echo224 is scum I have no idea who else would be, everyone would be equally likely.

Again faubiguy is still the most suspicious because unless he is the bulletproof townie he made the wrong move against town winning. He might have really thought username was scum but we lost the only town player with an active ability.