Career clusters: Forecasting Demand for High School through College Jobs, 2008-2018

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Author

Carnevale, Anthony P.

Smith, Nicole

Stone, James R., III

Kotamraju, Pradeep

Steuernagel, Bruce

Green, Kimberly A.

Abstract

The best pathway to the middle class is through a postsecondary education, but not everyone goes directly from high school to college. Are those who enter the workforce directly from high school doomed to work minimum wage jobs? In Career Clusters, we examine which sectors of the labor market afford individuals the best route to a middle class income. Using forecasts, we identify the most promising clusters for job seekers with a high school diploma or less, middle skills such as a certificate or Associate's degree, and those with Bachelor's degrees or better. Here are several key highlights from the report: While jobs for workers with high school diplomas are in decline, they still exist. Jobs for middle skill workers (jobs for workers with some college, a certificate, or an Associate's degree) will make up 29 percent of the workforce by 2018. Manufacturing will continue to decline in total employment, but retiring Baby Boomers will create 2 million job openings. The gender gap in wages varies greatly from cluster to cluster. For example, the gap in Architecture and Construction is $2,000; in Health Science, it is $69,000.

Current Obama administration policies emphasize Pell grant funding and community colleges. In a recent paper published by the Urban Institute, Dr. Carnevale argues that postsecondary education should also be aligned with ...