May 22, 2012

Flake still has strong lead for AZ-Sen.

Raleigh, N.C. – Jeff Flake looks like the overwhelming favorite to take the Republican nomination for Jon Kyl’s Arizona Senate seat, and he continues to hold a double-digit advantage over Democratic pick Richard Carmona.

In the primary, Flake leads conservative challenger Wil Cardon by a 42-20 margin, with three others combining for 6%, and a third undecided with almost four months to go. That is still a daunting gap to close for the largely self-funded Cardon, but he has managed to make up considerable ground since PPP last polled the race in February. Then, Flake had a 56-7 lead. But also as then, Flake is still stronger with the most conservative voters than he is with the center-right or moderates, potentially stymying the reason for Cardon’s candidacy.

In the general, Flake leads Carmona 48-35, and Cardon has a much smaller 40-37 edge over the Democrat. Three months ago, those match-ups were a very similar 46-35 and 37-33, respectively.

While Carmona has raised his profile slightly over the last few months, he remains still mostly unknown. Only 34% of voters have an opinion on Carmona personally, and they fall at 19% favorable and 15% unfavorable, up a bit from 27% (13-14) in the last survey. Flake, however, is recognized by 60% (33-27).

The positive flip side to that is that voters who know both Carmona and Flake strongly favor Carmona, suggesting that as Carmona continues to campaign and become a known commodity to the rest of the electorate, he can close the gap. The improvement in his name identification so far has been entirely with Democrats, however.

“The big story in Arizona is Wil Cardon chopping more than 20 points off Jeff Flake’s lead in the primary,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “This race is starting to show some of the upset potential that has characterized many Republican Senate primaries over the last two cycles.”

PPP surveyed 500 Arizona voters, including an oversample of 421 usual Republican primary voters, between May 17th and 20th. The margin of error for the overall survey is +/-4.4%, and +/-4.8% for the primary portion. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews.

Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.

Q4 If the candidates for Senate this fall wereRepublican Wil Cardon and Democrat RichardCarmona, who would you vote for?Wil Cardon...................................................... 40%Richard Carmona............................................ 37%Undecided....................................................... 23%

Q5 If the candidates for Senate this fall wereRepublican Jeff Flake and Democrat RichardCarmona, who would you vote for?Jeff Flake ........................................................ 48%Richard Carmona............................................ 35%Undecided....................................................... 17%

Q6 Who did you vote for President in 2008?John McCain................................................... 48%Barack Obama................................................ 42%Someone else/Don't remember ...................... 10%

Q8 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.Woman ........................................................... 52%Man................................................................. 48%

Q9 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,press 2. If you are an independent or identifywith another party, press 3.Democrat ........................................................ 31%Republican...................................................... 46%Independent/Other.......................................... 23%

Q11 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you areolder than 65, press 4.18 to 29........................................................... 12%30 to 45........................................................... 24%46 to 65........................................................... 44%Older than 65.................................................. 20%

Q5 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.Woman ........................................................... 49%Man................................................................. 51%

Q6 If you are 18 to 45 years old, press 1. If 46 to65, press 2. If you are older than 65, press 3.18 to 45........................................................... 28%46 to 65........................................................... 39%Older than 65.................................................. 33%

(Name is required. Email address will not be displayed with the comment.)

Name is required to post a comment

Please enter a valid email address

Invalid URL

This weblog only allows comments from registered users. To comment, please enable JavaScript so you can sign in.

PPP POLLS BY YEAR: 2006-2015

We came to PPP after a public poll in the San Jose Mayoral race showed our opponent ahead by 8 points. They found our candidate (Sam Liccardo) ahead by 3 points and that allowed us to be able to push back with the press against the perception that our opponent was now a strong favorite in the race. Sam ended up winning by 2 points and is now the next Mayor of San Jose. PPP worked very fast and had a very accurate read on the electorate when we needed them–Eric Jaye, Storefront Political Media.

Advertisement

HIRE PPP

Dean DebnamPublic Policy Polling CEO

PPP is best known for putting out highly accurate polling on key political races across the country, but we also do affordable private research for candidates and organizations. Why pay tens of thousands of dollars for a survey when one of the most reliable companies in the nation can do it for less?"