Mock draft Wednesday’s: 23rd January

January 23rd, 2013 | Written by Rob Staton

I watched some Detroit Lions tape yesterday to look at free agent pass rusher Cliff Avril. He’s an effective edge rusher, with great balance and lean and when he’s lined up against a right tackle he causes a lot of problems. But there’s one thing that kept jumping off the screen. Something that smacks you in the face it’s so obvious.

Interior pressure collapsing the pocket. Time and time again.

It was 2011 tape, Ndamukong Suh’s weakest season statistically. He had four sacks in 14 games that year. Yet it was clear as day what an effective force he continued to be. On almost all of Avril’s 2011 sacks, Suh crashes the pocket preventing the quarterback from stepping up — essentially making him a sitting duck for the speed rush off the edge. The Seahawks in 2012 created almost no push up the middle and never truly felt the maximum benefit of a defensive end (Chris Clemons) who — like Avril — can lean, accelerate and finish.

Nobody should doubt that Clemons is one of the most underrated players in the league. Three straight seasons with double digit sacks as the only pure pass-rusher in Seattle’s base defense is incredible. He’ll be a huge miss if he starts 2013 on the PUP as he recovers from ACL surgery.

Finding a defensive tackle who can be productive on the stat sheet isn’t imperative. The Seahawks just need someone who can make life easier for whoever’s playing the edge.

Of course it’s very easy to point to Suh and say, “just get someone who does that.” He’s a unique and gifted player. The type you need to be picking in the top two or three to get any shot at. You can’t expect to find the next Ndamukong Suh with the #25 pick. The three-technique is one of the single hardest positions to judge based on college tape. It’s such a rare blend of speed and relative size, plus burst and aggression. Without just going out and throwing money at a proven commodity, it’s a difficult hole to fill.

During my time writing this blog only one prospective three-technique has performed so well on tape, there was no doubt his skill set would translate to the next level. That was Suh. Most of the defensive tackle videos I’ve watched since have been mediocre or incomplete. You’re almost always left wanting more — greater strength against the run, quicker burst, more size, a nasty streak. It is so hard to find the ‘ideal’.

Players like Nick Fairley and Sheldon Richardson come close, but even they had some flaws in college. It’s almost like you have to accept some rough edges. It might be a pick based more on potential, frame and athleticism rather than production and tape. And then you ask yourself — can this player be Geno Atkins? Or will he be just another bust among many?

I wanted to do a mock this week where the Seahawks draft a defensive tackle in round one. And it really came down to two players.

Datone Jones — more than anyone it seems — is having a great Senior Bowl. He’s 6-4 and 280lbs, played everywhere along UCLA’s defensive line and registered 6.5 sacks in 2012. He played nose tackle, three technique, power end, five technique. He did it all. ESPN’s scouting trio of McShay/Wiedl/Muench noted how impressive he’s been in Mobile so far:

“Jones was the only guy on Tuesday who beat CMU OT Eric Fisher in a one-on-one drill, and he did it with an outside-in move. Fisher usually protects that pretty well, and Fisher stoned Texas’ Alex Okafor on a similar move earlier in practice.”

Jones was the most consistently disruptive defensive lineman on the field. He’s off to a good start and his performance here is going to send us back to watch more tape of his 2012 season.”

This was just one of many positive reviews, so I looked at a few UCLA games from last season. Jones definitely stands out as a penetrative force. He has a knack of getting into the backfield, flashes nice burst and an effective swim/club move. Despite not being the biggest lineman he doesn’t get destroyed against the run. You start to wonder if he could work his way into becoming a disruptive three-technique.

The big concern is going to be his size against bigger, more physical lineman. He could be a liability against the run at the next level. Whenever you’re talking about a 280lbs player starting inside, it’s a concern. However, the Seahawks have been at least willing to give Greg Scruggs (285lbs) some snaps in that position. If you’re willing to accept he’s going to get blown up sometimes, you could end up with a pretty good pass rusher.

He needs to learn to finish — often he doesn’t make best use of his ability to live in the backfield, either failing to track the play or just not executing. I’ve included tape above of his performance against Stanford in the PAC-12 title game.

Pete Carroll recruited Jones at USC so he’ll know about his potential. It might be a stretch to think he could jump onto Seattle’s first round radar, but stranger things have happened. A strong Senior Bowl is aiding his cause.

He just gets edged out this week by Florida’s Sharriff Floyd. I talked about him in greater detail on Monday and although he’s divided opinion somewhat on this blog, I do think he’ll receive some consideration. I went back and looked at some Gators tape from 2011 to watch Jaye Howard again — and the difference between Howard and Floyd was tangible. We’re talking about a whole different level of athlete. Floyd’s only scratched the surface of his potential so far. I still think he might be best suited to the five technique but there’s no doubting he has some untapped potential as a pass rusher.

The Seahawks know more about this guy than anyone in the NFL given Dan Quinn’s time in Florida and Pete Carroll’s background recruiting him for USC. Nobody will be left wondering about this particular prospect if they pass. If you want to watch his two-sack performance against Louisville (full game) click here.

Note — I have only one quarterback in round one this week. However, I think as many as three or four could go on day one. We could see teams trading up into the late first. I don’t include trades in my mocks — if I did — you’d see four quarterbacks in the top-32. Matt Barkley, Tyler Wilson, Geno Smith and Mike Glennon. A lot of people want to tell you this is a bad year for the position. It isn’t a bad year. It’s just not an Andrew Luck/Robert Griffin III year.

The whole QB thing fascinates me. I actually think more than one goes in R1, but I want to mix things up a bit. I think there will be a LOT of trading back into the late first to get at guys like Smith, Wilson, Glennon etc. We could see four QB’s go in R1. Could see three in the top-15. Easily. We’ll look at different options every week.

I think they’d ideally like to add a bigger WR. But then Allen is only 6-2. I prefer Wheaton and it’s not even close, but again wanted to look at different options. I can imagine the Seahawks adding a possession type receiver. I think they’d love Zach Ertz to act as a WR/TE hyrbid for that role. I know I would.

I agree with your thoughts on QB’s – I would bet 3 in R1 is a lock, especially this year – with the success of rookie QB’s last year, even though this group is nowhere on the same level, teams will reach for the most important position on the team. I did want to see a mock that rated QB’s closer to their actual talent level, so this was great.

Wheaton just blows me away on tape. The speed, the smoothness in cuts, he’s fantastic. Allen seems like the prototype build without the impressive tape (to me). If he’s only 6’2, then I wonder where he really sits on the Hawks draft board. If they want big, then it will be the 6’5 jump ball WR. With the FO tendency to look at unique traits for a player, I would think Wheaton’s speed would be valued highly.

I’d definitely take Wheaton or Tavon Austin over Allen. Then go out for Brandon Kaufman late at 6-4, or TE Kelce at 6-5. I just keep having visions of Austin running all over the field, and a big guy going deep. Aaron Dobson, 6-2,205,4.4 speed might fit in just swell! LOL

I really like Marquise Goodwin, WR out of Texas. He’s the same size as Austin, probably faster (he can flat out fly) but not as shifty as Austin either. I could see the Hawks lining him up all over the field, including giving him ZOR sweep hand-offs, and competing with Leon in returning punts and kick-offs. He could be the deep threat to take the top off the defense that Hawks have been looking for and provide versatility and depth while only costing a 5th or 6th round pick. I actually see him as a boom or bust type pick – he could become RW’s BFF on deep routes (which would also open underneath routes) or he might not make the team. But as a mid-late round pick why not roll the dice? He would be a better value than Tavon Austin costing our us our 1st and could do similar things.

I could see us easily dropping into the 35-45 overall range, if a team in those spots elects to forego taking a QB early in R1 (similar to how Cleveland did last year).

Looks like Ansah has kind of played his way out of R1 this week in Mobile. Similar to Hunt — they haven’t been able to translate physical measurables into any kind of production.

Jones has been electric. From a physique standpoint, he really reminds me strongly of the Buffalo HOF Bruce Smith. Both had these aircraft carrier wide shoulders with sufficient junk in the trunk to keep their center of gravity low. Jones even looks capable of taking on more weight if he so desired.

This OL crop looks like it is extremely deep. Even guys that didn’t even tickle the 2nd round have looked extremely sharp. I’m recalling 2011, when Moffitt was graded a 3rd round guy, but he seemed to have his share of struggles. Even without Cooper or Warmack, the OG crop looks like it could be at least 10 deep in starter quality. The OT group looks a lot better than the 2009 group which was considered a pretty good year.

One big concern I have with Ansah is a lack of quality rushing the edge. He has bad technique, he doesn’t explode. I liked him a lot more lining up inside, but that won’t be a regular feature at his size. I’ve not see him in Mobile but it’s interesting Attyla that you’ve mentioned he struggled. A few people have commented that Hunt hasn’t being doing enough which is a shame.

I agonised over this projection a lot. I was very tempted to put Jones at #25 but settled at putting him at #32. Things will probably be a lot clearer come free agency, but right now I could see SEA going in a number of different directions. And I still think they’ll really like Zach Ertz if they can get at him.

In a perfect world Margus Hunt will drop into the 2nd round. Sometimes I think people are too caught up in numbers. We don’t necessarily need a 3 tech that gets 10 sacks a year. We need a guy who destroys the pocket up the middle so that Bruce and Clem can go to work.

We’ve seen two approaches to free agents… Sidney Rice/Zach Miller type contracts, and Jason Jones/Branch/Leon type contracts. There’s a lot of discussion about a big name FA DT signing like Melton or Starks, but given what appears to be a transition to fewer outside FA signings, other than re-signing Jones or Branch, what under-the-radar mid level DT free agents would make sense for a 3T in the 3-5 million a year range.

I like Floyd a lot he has the potential you would want with a first round pick and has flashed the skill deemed necessary to succeed at NFL level. More importantly I like his versatility being able to play multiple places on the line suggest intelligence which is a reflection of a player that can and would improve with effort, and good coaching. On top of that, I think he could fill Bryants role and still generate pass rush from there. I like the idea of a line that Bryant and Floyd could could switch spots on the line and create some interesting looks for our defensive fronts especially with how Carroll likes to use the defense.

I was hoping to see some good things from Sylvester. But thus far, he’s been very disappointing.

Rob alluded to it a couple weeks ago, and it seems clairvoyant in retrospect. But he didn’t come to Mobile in good shape. He’s struggled conditioning wise. You’re left to wonder how seriously he takes football in his life. Rob put it out there that maybe a team doesn’t get the most committed player when they take Williams. And his performance this week against many of his peers looks like there is a level of dedication that is missing.

Maybe not Vontaze Burfict missing. But certainly not first round worthy either.

from the rundown I heard on 710 yesterday by someone from Scout.com, they spoke very highly of Sylvester Williams. He also said that the ones who are separating themselves from the rest are Alex Okafor (bulling Eric Fisher around), Terrance Williams, and Quinton Patton.

I think if the need for a DT isn’t resolved in free agency, and if Seattle doesn’t want to trade up to get Richardson, then Floyd would be the pick. But I’d really like Seattle to get Melton or Starks so they can go get Margus Hunt. I think Seattle is in a position right now where they have to assume that Chris Clemons isn’t coming back next season and get some kind of replacement for him. During free agency in March and the draft in April, it would be way too early to get any indication of what Clemons’ status would be for the season, and the smart thing to do is to play it safe and get a replacement at Leo rather than to be optimistic and bank on him coming back. I think Bruce Irvin needs one more season as a pass rushing specialist before taking the full time Leo position. Hunt could play Clem’s position on 1st and 2nd down and Jason Jones’ position on 3rd down, plus, become another field goal blocker on 4th.

What makes you think Hunt is more equipped to be the every down LEO than Irvin? By all accounts he’s just as raw a prospect as Irvin was (if not more so) and doesn’t have the full season of NFL coaching that Irvin got this season. While I agree that Irvin needs more time, I don’t think you’re going to fill the hole left by Clemons’ injury in the draft; at least not someone who can step in day one and be effective. Personally I will be surprised if Osi Umenyiora isn’t a Seahawk this year for that very reason.

To be honest I want no part of Hunt in round 1. Given the evidence so far, we have to assume that he will not be a starter his first year. That means that he will already be 27 years old by the time he’s ready to take over the a position on the D-line full time. 3-4 years later you are already talking about finding his replacement. There is also zero physical projectability left as he is already entering his physical prime, and if he takes even a little too long to develop his technique, the phases of his game will be lined up in such a way that he will be an infant mentally and a decrepit old man physically. If I am gonna draft an “athletic freak” I basically want the opposite of that. Jason Pierre-Paul was a physical freak whose solitary year at USF raised questions about his lack of experience, effective coaching, etc. The difference is that JPP played his entire rookie season at age 21. Even if he had spent the last 3 years “developing” instead of making Pro Bowls he would still be coming into this season near the beginning of his physical prime. For the record; yes I thought the Brandon Weeden pick was absolutely laughable.

This brings us back to Sharrif Floyd. He, like JPP, will play his entire rookie season as a 21 year old. Not to mention he fills a greater need (3-Tech) and possesses the ideal body type for the position. The Seahawks will have a better idea of the kind of worker and person he is than any other team in the draft. If Hunt and Floyd are both still on the board at #25, that should be an easier choice than deciding if you would rather be the top scientist in your field or getting mad cow disease.

Do you think Floyd has the same kind of upside as Richardson and that he is just not quite as polished? I think the thing that would make me hesitate with Floyd is the lack of a real mean streak as you stated. That has to be nessesary for a 3 tech. At this point I really hope the Seahawks move up with one of the teams that could possibly be looking to trade back for a QB in RD 1.

I think Richardson is a more natural three-technique. He’s nastier, more aggressive. Floyd is a similar impressive athlete but hasn’t got that same edge, he isn’t quite as disruptive and he’s not as good at finishing.

hey rob, la confora has a report that woody j would explore trading revis, it sounds crazy but do you think seattle would be interested? they could do browner and flynn for revis and then draft picks going each way or however they finalize it. too far off or not? having sherm and revis would be unfair

Agreed. This isn’t baseball, where teams will trade great players just because they aren’t in contention that year. I see no reason to trade Revis unless you have an opportunity to “Herschel Walker” someone.

Rob, once you called our attention to Floyd and I watched just a couple of game tapes, he is clearly a round one talent. I doubt he makes it to 25, but if he does, I would grab him in an instant. Richardson will be gone top 10. Datone Jones clearly bears watching. Wasn’t the knock on Geno Atkins that dropped him to round 4 that he was a bit undersized? Maybe it is those guys, who add some muscle but keep their speed, who turn out to be the ideal 3 tech?

One of the things I love about Atkins is leverage — which is easier at 6-1. A lot of the DT’s coming into the draft nowadays seem to be 6-3/6-4 or even 6-5. I think guys like Jones would benefit from being smaller and squatter. But he’s one to watch, if not in round one then certainly a bit later.

Floyd seems like the perfect player to pick up. We draft him with the intention to play him at 3-tech and see what happens. It could work, or he could be not very effective. Rob, you say you like him better as a 5-tech, so if he doesn’t pan out at 3-tech we could just slide him over to replace Red and create more cap space in another year or two. Floyd would be a great pick just for that reason.

I cannot envision a scenario in which Allen drops to us at 56… Don’t get me wrong, I’d love for such a drop, but I just don’t see it. He isn’t the biggest, or fastest, or run the best routes or poses the best set of hands; but he is DAMN good in all of those areas. While I don’t see a #1 there, I see a very solid #2.

I know Seattle fans want the big receiver, but when I’m hearing more and more about how Markus Wheaton is being described as Mike Wallace-Lite, it will be hard to pass on him for another receiver if they do go receiver in round 2. He may be thin down low, but this guy has tremendous burst once he has possession with the ball….Seattle needs that in a receiver.

I know things will change but i thought i throw my draft out now and see how it changes as the draft gets here. I’ll due pick and an alternative as i m sure some guys may not be on the board.
1st pick Deandre Hopkins WR Clemson he just has it and i want a franchise WR.
Alt pick Terrrance Williams WR Georgia he has the the potential and with Russel Wilson guidance and work ethics he would explode on the scene.
2nd pick Kawann Short DT Purdue he’s disruptive in run or pass but he may be gonebefore we pick here
Alt pick Shariff Floyd DT Florida lots of potential may not be here either. but i m hoping that Seattle who has a good chance will bring in Randy Starks in FA who at 29 could be talk into coming over since we are playoff team. Its something older lineman think as they get older. SUPERBOWL.
3rd pick Barkevious Mingo OLB LSU If he slips this far you have to take this guy
Alt pick Oday Aboushi ROT Virginia with the depth of offensive lineman in this draft this guy a steal in the 3rd and Tom Cable knowns how to coach them up.
4th pick Gavin Escobar TE San Diego St he’s big blocks well and has soft hands.
alt pick Chris Harper WR Kansas St he’s not small at 6’1′ 230lb and hes polished
5th pick Zavier Gooden OLB Missouri like Oday Aboushi i just get a good feeling about this guy when i watch him play.
I would plan on branch, jones, clemens being gone next year and would definately want Starks and draft a backup in the 2nd. Maybe we could find another Clemens with a trade of Flynn though i comfortable have as a reliable backup. I know last year i had Bruce Irving in my first draft about this time but i had him in the 3rd round so what i say today surely won’t happen in a month from now. Would enjoy any comments.

He’s not shown a lot of movement ability. He pretty much just trucks the man in front of him. Which he’s good at. Probably not as good as Jesse Williams, but close. He’s not distinguished himself at the senior bowl in terms of polish. Aggressive and strong. Not a lot of ability to attack a gap.

More than ever I want to go after Henry Melton if he is not franchised by Chicago. He young, only 25 and is at the top of his game and he could get even better. If we were able to hit that homerun it gives us more flexibility in the draft. The thing I keep hearing about Starks is that the second half of this season his production really fell off and that the years of wear and tear are finally having the impact on his body, father time. Based on needs even if we get Melton I still like the pick of Floyd especially if our FO determines that he could also play DE as Reds future replacement. The flexibility would do wonders for this defense.

After next season the salary cap will be a critial factor 2014 which means some of our current players will be let loose (traded, cut etc.), Browner, Red, Clemens and Flynn. This means we need to draft there replacements now and get them into our system. The churn will feel painful but it’s inevitable…

Rob, you have sold me on Wheaton with the comparisons to Wallace. Wallace would be great for our team but he is too expensive. Has Wheaton been used in the backfield and Punt/KR for OSU? BTW, great write up and love the Wednesday mocks of yours! This site has the most knowledgable fans too.

Going over some other sites that report on the Senior Bowl tonight, I am liking more and more the way this draft is shaping up for the Hawks. Nice depth at positions we seem like we need to address, WR, DT and the know LB/ DE prospects. I’m cautious by nature but with our front office and number of picks, and as good as the personnel on our team currently is I’m getting that good easy feeling.

Also with the Chiefs having the first pick and old Andy Reid there I wonder if it wouldn’t be prudent for him to make a off hand attempt at acquiring Alex Smith from the 9ers. With Barkley being all over mocks if the Chiefs could pull off getting him as their second pick without giving up a extra pick or too much that would be a A draft class for them in my mind.

Someone on that article suggested that Flynn be traded for another player. That would seem like a logical idea instead of picks. Though I’m starting to think the FO holds onto him through preseason and trades him if his play maxes his stock and raises some interest. The cap hit would carry but JS and Pete are shrewd at maxing out the best deal for the team. Carrying Flynn through preseason would provide a solid back-up in the emergency area as well.

Call me crazy but we should trade up to get Star Latui. A beast, a smashmouth, pocket copllapsing, inside killer of a player. fits with our smashmouth philosophy and will give Clemons time to bury the opposing QB.
Nuff said,
Semper Fi

You have probably seen this but here is a link to look at. Notice that while he does not alwasy get to the QB he is almost always in the backfield and USC does not seem to run too much up the middle.
Semper Fi

Rob, with all this Flynn trade talk, is there any other Seahawk that we could trade with Flynn?
Any way to bundle a Ben Obamanu or a defensive player to increase the value?
Would Jacksonville more likely do a 2nd round swap if we gave them Flynn and another player they could use? Their rosture is horrid. Probably going to be a lot like Seattle with lots and lots of turnover!

Based on the tape he’s a solid R3-4 type. I’ve seen some footage from the Senior Bowl where he’s looked sharp against middling corner’s. I think #25 is a major stretch and that there’s 4-5 WR’s that will go before him.

Maybe it is time to look at drafting a QB in round 1? Shocking as that may seem, it may be wise. Save cap by cutting Flynn. Either that or take a flyer on JJ from Georgia. If the best player is a QB in round 1, at least he would have some residual value in 2014.

I think that would be a waste of time personally. That’d be a first round pick you never want to start a game. You only really make those investments to get a re-sale value down the line. But you can’t go higher than a R1 pick anyway.

I understand that sentiment. However, in terms of residual value, there is not much that intrigues at 25. That said, there are some intriguing QB’s. 25 might be a great spot for a trade. However, if we are there, I would be very pleased with a Hopkins or Okafor or Tyler Wilson pick.

With New Orleans switching to a 34 defense, does your pick of Ansah there change?

Also, I’d bet the farm Keenan Allen doesn’t make it to 55. Top-32 easily and a certain contender for first WR off the board.

I think that KC already has ‘older Matt Barkley’ in Matt Cassel who they seemingly want to be rid of. That said, if Reid is installing a WCO (and why wouldn’t he?), Barkley is a legit fit. Reid’s system may be tailor made for Barkley and I wonder just how much discussion happened during Reid’s interview process?

Even still, Reid also thinks he can find capable starters past the first round, as he has with Kolb and Foles. I wouldn’t put it past them to trade down or simply pass Barkley in favor of spending less draft capital in what is a weak QB class – at least in terms of elite talent.

Just to clarify, I agree Barkley is vastly superior to Cassel. They have some off the same limitations, however. I just wonder if KC isn’t ready to go big with a different styled QB than a Barkley or Cassel who, much like Matt Flynn, also must be managed by scheme to hide potential physical shortcomings. Sure, Barkley isn’t Colt McCoy but he’s not Jim Kelly or Donovan McNabb, either.

It’s a valid point. Although I suspect Reid is so comfortable with his own control that he’ll just say, “Who is the best QB? Do I need to draft this guy with the #1 pick? Do I wait? Should I trade up?” I suspect if they don’t draft Barkley, it’ll be because they prefer somebody else rather than any possible comparisons to Cassel.

Not at all. Give me a good old rumour over a 49ers Super Bowl any day. The Mallett link was mainly because Michael Lombardi was so high on him on the NFL Network going into the 2011 draft. We’ll see if they go in that direction. Mallett’s ready for a shot.

Also, Henry Melton could determine if we go after a 3-tech in the draft early or not. He could be a target in free agency. One of the few guys who gets sacks from the DT position consistently in the NFL and only 26.

If the Seahawks come out of the draft with Sharrif Floyd and Quinton Patton from rds 1 & 2, a free agent like Umenyiora, and whatever gems John finds for us in the middle rounds, I will start saving for a trip to the Super Bowl next year. The cool thing is this is not a pipe dream, but very do-able. Go Hawks.

Those of us who looked at a lot of tape of Russell Wilson at Wisconsin had his WR Abbrederis jump off the screen at us. It seemed that they could read each other’s minds. Abbrederis was All-Big-10 this year and decided to return to the Badgers for his senior year. I hope Russell will be in John’s ear to bring this guy aboard next year. The two of them are a TD machine.

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