CO2 emissions are rising, bringing the average global temperature up with them. This will have an impact on the environment, human health, and will have economic costs.

The Baseline scenario envisages the future situation without more ambitious policies than those in force today ("business-as-usual").The concentration level of 450ppm is the goal set at the 2010 UNFCCC Conference in Cancún to limit the temperature increase to 2°C.

How hot depends on us

Some regions will be affected more than others, although the severity of these impacts will depend on how much we act now to mitigate the consequences.

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The water’s rising

As the increase in temperature melts polar ice caps, global sea levels will rise. Without adaptation measures, coastal cities will be experiencing major effects by 2070, with USD 35, 000 billion of urban assets in danger, more than 10 times current levels.

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When it rains, it pours

Temperature changes will also affect precipitation patterns unevenly, causing many dry areas to become drier and wet areas to become wetter.

Cloudy with a chance of catastrophes

The risk of floods will be much greater in many urban areas. Depending on the climate scenarios, global urban flood damages are projected to amount to USD 0.7 to 1.8 trillion by 2080.

At the same time, droughts are expected to increase and the number of people living in severely water-stressed areas will rise, especially in North Africa and the Middle East, the Indian Subcontinent and Central Asia.

While the cost of not acting varies depending on the region, the consequences of climate will be negative everywhere.

Doing nothing will cost more than acting

Implementing climate change mitigation measures will help us avoid such huge costs. Mitigation measures sufficient for a 2 degree scenario would only slightly affect future economic growth. Concrete actions can, and should, be taken. Next week we’ll look at what these actions are.