++ Intelligence sources reveal: in Russia’s large-scale September exercise, the capture of the Baltic States, bombings of Germany and other NATO members, as well as attacks on neutral countries were rehearsed ++

Since 2009, the Russian Federation’s General has been conducting the “Zapad” (“West”) exercise every four years (one was previously conducted in 1999). Its aim is to train the “defensive capacities” of the Russian Federation’s army in the Western Military Sector. Last September, the Russian army announced: “The Zapad 2017 anti-terror exercise is a purely defensive one.”

However, BILD recently spoke to two leading analysts from a western intelligence service who revealed that Zapad 2017 was neither an “anti-terror exercise” nor “purely defensive”, but a “dry run” for a “full-scale conventional war against NATO in Europe”. According to these sources, the drill rehearsed the capture of the Baltic states (and Belarus) as well as a “shock campaign” against Western European NATO nations such as Germany and the Netherlands, but also against Poland, Norway and the non-aligned states of Sweden and Finland.

According to the two sources, Kremlin forces rehearsed capturing NATO’s “region of vulnerability, according to the Russian view”, namely the three Baltic states. “To realize this, you would have to quickly do the Suwalki gap operation” in order to cut off Poland and NATO reinforcements from Lithuania. This is exactly what Russia did, creating the artificial state of “Veyshnoria” at the exact location of the 40-kilometre land bridge between Poland and Lithuania (carried out on Belarussian territory, however).

At the same time, Russia rehearsed “neutralizing or taking under control air fields and harbours (in the Baltic states), so there are no reinforcements arriving from other NATO states there”. The sources emphasized that, in the case of an emergency, this would, in the first few days, be a purely military operation. “This does not mean that you have to occupy the countries and declare ‘Peoples’ Republics’ or something like that, but that you have to occupy the harbours, airports and so on”.

The sources revealed that “Russian air force strategic aviation, long-range aviation, took part in the exercise on two days and conducted simulation flights over the Baltic Sea and the North Sea. They exercised bombings of Western European targets, approaching the German and Dutch coast from the North Sea as well as Swedish, Finish and Polish mainland from the Baltic Sea. The drill included waves of Tu-95 strategic bombers as well as support aircraft like fighter jets and refuelling planes.”

These bombers rehearsed launching missiles and cruise missiles. They returned to their bases before reaching NATO shores. In a real-life situation, their targets would include “critical infrastructure, that is, air fields, harbours, energy supplies and so on, in order to shock the countries and make the populations demand from their governments that ‘we shouldn’t be involved here, we should go for peace instead”.

In war, another aim of these Russian activities would be “to prevent them (NATO armies) from taking military action, deploying troops and reversing Russian army gains in the Baltics”. Hence, German naval bases at the Baltic Sea and the North Sea would be prime targets for such aerial attacks. Although the sources did not know which German, and possibly Dutch, targets exactly the Tu-95 bombers were directed at, they stressed: “This was part of their exercise in September!”

The sources added that, “of course, in war time, Russian bombers would have approached from the East as well, but in ‘peace times’, this attack direction (towards Germany) along the Norwegian coast would make sense”. Russia could not practice strategic air attacks from the East due to the Belarussian and Ukrainian airspace between Russia and its potential targets. Moreover, the sources made it clear that strategic air raids would have been flanked by large-scale missile attacks on NATO targets, using Iskander tactical missiles in the Kaliningrad region for targeting NATO strategic assets in the Baltic Sea countries. It is “not clear, but likely” that such attacks were also rehearsed in the Zapad 2017 drills.

According to the sources, these risky manoeuvres (over the North Sea) could show that Russia has planned “show of force attacks” that deeply penetrate Western-dominated air space and a “surprise element”, as NATO missile defences are better prepared in the East of Europe than in NATO states like Norway, Denmark, the UK, and Germany.

In order to cripple NATO’s capacities in the event of a large-scale ground offensive against Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania, the exercise involved “anti-submarine warfare and air-defence drills throughout the Baltic Sea”. The focus area was the eastern Gotland Basin.

Russian naval forces also rehearsed anti-aircraft and anti-ship operations in the area, as well as anti-combat-diver operations. The obvious aim of such exercises was the destruction of NATO forces in the Baltic Sea that might try to reach Baltic waters and ports in order to help NATO allies under attack there.

According to the interviewed Western intelligence sources, Sweden and Finland would come under attack in the case of a real war against NATO. These attacks were also rehearsed in September. “We know that, in case of a war with NATO, Russia would not expect Sweden and Finland to remain neutral, although they are not part of NATO. Stockholm and Helsinki would allow NATO aircraft to use their airfields and so on”. The source alleged that most Swedish and southern Finish air fields would therefore come under Iskander missile attacks.

The sources pointed towards the Murmansk region on the Kola peninsula, bordering on Finland and Norway. “There were very interesting activities here, which makes us think that they were practicing something for northern Finland, but unfortunately I cannot tell you more, as we are not the source of this information”. Pushed about the issue, the sources revealed that, during the Zapad 2017 exercise, “Russian army forces from other parts of the country were moved to Kola that do not belong there. This makes us think that they did not just play out the scenario on the map, but also in real life. The point of this operational direction is to defend against NATO air attacks. So we think that they planned to neutralize assets in the region as well”.

In October, a Norwegian magazine reported, referring to six Norwegian defence establishment sources, that Russia had practiced bombing and invading Svalbard, the Norwegian archipelago in the Barents Sea, during Zapad 2017. According to the report, two waves of Tu-95 and Tu-22m3 bombers rehearsed bombing runs on the strategic islands between Russia and the resource-rich Arctic Ocean. 50 vessels participated in the drill in the Barents Sea. This confirms with what BILD learnt from its two Western intelligence sources. From Russia’s strategic perspective, it would be necessary to carry out parallel attacks on Finish and Norwegian mainland targets.

One of the sources explained to BILD what a trigger for such events could be. “I am always asked, is this an offensive or a defensive operation? The answer is, it is an escalation operation”. So-called “coloured revolutions”, for example in Belarus or other post-Soviet states, could lead to the war that was trained in Zapad 2017. “Such a revolution, which would of course be ‘a plot by the CIA’, according to them, could get Russia involved. If the US or another NATO country then gets involved, this could be the starting point for the scenario they trained for in September”.

In general, a military operation against the Baltic states would be a “responsive operation”, meaning that “Putin would feel a real threat” to his interests. In other words, a military confrontation in Russia’s defined “sphere of national interest” would trigger the trained scenario. Examples would be Belarus, Ukraine, or Georgia. “We know that, in 2008, they had the contingency plan that if the US gets involved in guarding Georgia from their invasion, the Baltic states would have become a target”.

The source also mentioned events that would NOT trigger a war, such as the NATO accession of Sweden or Finland. “They threaten to take military actions if these two countries join NATO, but we don’t think this would be their red line”. Not even a direct military confrontation between the US and Russia in Syria would trigger a war against NATO, the source believes. “They would rather withdraw in the worst case, but this would not lead to a war in Europe”.

The sources pointed out that the scenario Russia trained for would be the last step before a nuclear war with the West and – ironically – Russia’s attempt at preventing such a war by simultaneously achieving a “quick victory” in the Baltics and conducting a successful “shock campaign” in Western Europe. “Of course, if all of this does not help, Russia would signal the West that, if it tries to reverse its military gains in the Baltic space”, the next step would be the use of tactical nuclear weapons, in all likelihood followed by the use of ICBM. However, the Kremlin would “try to avoid such a scenario”.

According to the two sources, 12.700 troops ((soldiers??))) participated in the Belarus drill (including 7.200 Belarusian soldiers). “The declared numbers here were correct, which makes sense, because you cannot force Belarus to give false numbers if they don’t want to.”

However, another 12.000 Russian ground troops ((soldiers??))) took part in the Leningrad and Pskov regions “near the Estonian borders” and almost 10.000 were involved on the Kola peninsula. Taken together with a high number of naval personnel, air force staff, and support forces, more than 100.000 Russian troops ((soldiers??))) participated in Zapad 2017, the sources said. Additionally, 20.000 Russian National Guard troops (soldiers) and further FSB units and Ministry of Emergency Situation personnel also participated, which makes the overall number even higher.

The sources pointed out that the sheer number of involved ground forces was “a violation of the Vienna document”. An exercise number of 13.000 or more participants requires observers. “And make no mistake. There was not a single observer, although this is what the Russians want to tell the public. There were ‘invited guests’ from NATO countries which were allowed to watch some bombings. Observers would have been allowed to go wherever they wanted and to talk to all involved units. This did not happen.”

While Russia announced several training grounds in Belarus, the Kaliningrad region, and Pskov as well as the Leningrad oblast, the real extent of the exercise was much larger. There were more training grounds within the announced areas. Moreover, and more importantly, the Murmansk oblast on the Kola peninsula also took part in the exercise. Naval force manoeuvres took place over a wide area in the Baltic Sea and Barents Sea. Aerial drills were carried out over the Baltic Sea, Barents Sea, and North Sea. There were also other military exercises happening simultaneously in the Black Sea region and on occupied Crimea, aimed at a potential NATO response from Bulgaria and Romania.

VAERNES GARRISON, Norway -- The stated goals of the Marine Corps' newest rotational force in Norway are to enhance partnerships with European allies and improve the service's ability to fight in cold weather.

But on a brief visit to the 300-member unit ahead of Christmas, the commandant and the sergeant major of the Marine Corps both described the strategic role the small unit fills -- and the fact that a peacetime mission can be preface to combat if circumstances change.

The Norwegian Home Guard base near Trondheim that houses the Marine rotational force was the first stop on Gen. Robert Neller's annual Christmas tour.

The stop was a new one for the tour. The first Norway rotation, from 1st Battalion, 2nd Marines, deployed in January and was replaced by a new unit from 2nd Battalion, 2nd Marines, in late August.

Neller emphasized to the Marines that they should remain ready to fight at all times, predicting a "big-ass fight" on the horizon.

"I hope I'm wrong, but there's a war coming," Neller said. " ... You're in a fight here, an informational fight, a political fight, by your presence."

Neller later told the Marines that he expects the Pacific and Russia to be the service's operational points of focus as the nation looks beyond the fights in the Middle East that have stretched into the better part of two decades.

The United States' position that Russia presents a major threat was re-emphasized in the new National Security Strategy released Monday. The document discusses Russia's practice of "using information tools" to interfere with other nations' democracies and militant aggression that crosses borders.

"With its invasions of Georgia and Ukraine, Russia demonstrates its willingness to violate the sovereignty of states in the region," the strategy states.

Sergeant Major of the Marine Corps Ronald Green put the Marines' role starkly.

"Just remember why you're here," he said. "They're watching. Just like you watch them, they watch you. We've got 300 Marines up here; we could go from 300 to 3,000 overnight. We could raise the bar."

The rotational force itself is much more circumspect about its role in the region. On a visit to the unit in May, Military.com found troops assigned to the unit had even been instructed not to use the word "Russia" in interviews with the media.

In large part, this is due to regional sensitivities.

The rotational unit is in Norway at the invitation of the Norwegian government, which maintains an economic relationship with Russia and shares a 120-mile border on its northeastern edge with the country.

While Norwegian feedback on the Marines' presence has been generally positive -- then-Norwegian Defense Minister Ina Eriksen Søreide announced in June that the rotation had been extended for a year, until 2018 -- others have cited misgivings.

In October, Norway opposition leaders asked Prime Minister Erna Solberg to explain exactly what the American troops are doing in the country.

Russian officials, for their part, have been outspoken in opposing the presence of Marines in Norway and warning of diplomatic repercussions.

Though Green did not name Russia, he referred to its displeasure at the Marines' presence nearby.

"They don't like the fact that we oppose them, and we like the fact that they don't like the fact that we oppose them," Green said. "Three hundred of us, surrounded by them, we've got them right where we wanted, right? We've done this before."

General Carter said that Russia could ‘initiate hostilities sooner than we expect’ and warned of their information warfare capabilities.

Recently we reported that Russia appears to be at the forefront of information warfare in the modern age, utilising an array of organisations and strategies to spread disinformation to further national strategy but how are they doing it?

Every now and then we come across a report from one of the many Russian state broadcasters that have more than remarkable headlines revolving around military equipment and it seems fairly obvious that the piece has a clear agenda but why is this being done? They were false but the rumours had begun spilling into conventional news media. Numerous analysts and experts in intelligence point to Russia as the prime suspect, noting that preventing NATO expansion is a centrepiece of the foreign policy of the nation.

Even the UK Defence Journal has been contacted by various Russian based ‘news organisations’ looking for soundbites whenever we publish a story about an MoD blunder or questionable government decision.

“Now, the other part of the threat is how one assesses intent. Now I am not in any way going to suggest that Russia wants to go to war in the traditional definition of the term, but there are factors that bear on the question of intent and one needs to understand Russian psyche, their culture and their philosophy of pre-emption.

Russia, I think, could initiate hostilities sooner than we expect, and a lot earlier than we would in similar circumstances. Most likely they will use nefarious sub-NATO Article 5 Treaty actions to erode the capability of NATO and threaten the very structure that provides our own defence and security. This is the divide and rule which the international order is designed to prevent.”

General Carter also said when it comes to threats, it is important to recognise that “readiness is about speed of recognition, speed of decision-making and speed of assembly.”

He said the Army is testing the ability to deploy over land by using road and rail, but that it is “also important to stress the need for a forward mounting base.”

“Therefore we are actively examining the retention of our infrastructure in Germany, where we store our vehicles in Ayrshire Barracks in Rheindahlen, and our training facilities in Sennelager, as well as our heavy equipment transporters that are based there, and our stockpiling and ammunition storage,” he revealed.