New Line’s The Golden Compass, which has a reported budget of $200M+, has staggered out of the starting gate with an opening day of $9M or so, and it will likely muster only an estimated $27M for the weekend. In the realm of big budget, family-oriented family films, The Golden Compass opening is absolutely anemic. Harry Potter & the Goblet of Fire – $102.6M opening Harry Potter & the Prioner of Azkaban – $93.6M opening Harry Potter & the Sorcerer’s Stone – $90.2M opening Harry Potter & the Chamber of Secrets – $88.3M opening The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King – $72.6M opening The Chronicles of Narnia – $65.5M opening The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers – $62M opening The Lord of the Rings: Fellowship of the Ring – $47.2M opening The Golden Compass – $27M opening (estimate) Eragon – $23.2M opening Bridge to Terabithia – $22.5M opening Stardust – $9.1M opening

It’s been an awful year for New Line, and the this turkey will cinch Nicole Kidman’s reputation as box office poison.

Although Kidman’s current specialty film, Noah Baunbach’s Margot at the Wedding (Paramount Vantage) is playing decently in limited release with an anticipated $3,043 weekend PTA at 82 locations, her last 5 live action releases have ranged from disappointing to disastrous.

New Line will have a huge problem “playing through” the holidays based on the soft opening. With 3 movies including I Am Legend (Warner Bros) set for release next week, 5 more major films due the Friday before Christmas, and 2 new pics opening wide on Christmas day, The Golden Compass will have a hard time holding screens through the holidays. $100M domestic is now a longshot, and the movie will probably finish only in the $80M-$90M range.

Disney’s Enchanted continues to hold well with an estimated $2.9M Friday and a strong $10.5M projection for the weekend. By Monday morning, the Amy Adams vehicle will have banked $83M+. Dreamworks’ Beowulf ($1.46M Friday) may have edged This Christmas ($1.44M) on Friday, but the 2 movies will change places by Sunday night. The Sony ensemble surprise hit should finish the weekend with a slightly stronger 3-day number, but both movies will be in the $5.2M range. Fred Claus (Warner Bros) should round out the top 5 with approximately $3.67M for the weekend.

On the specialty front, Juno (Fox Searchlight) is an arthouse sensation. Written by Diablo Cody and directed by Jason Reitman, the film is riding spectacular reviews and deafening Oscar buzz to an expected weekend PTA of nearly $58,000 at 7 locations. If the number holds that would be one of the top 35 PTA performances in modern box office history. Commercial success here may ensure Oscar nominations for Ellen Page for Best Actress, Jennifer Garner for Best Supporting Actress and Diablo Cody for Best Original Screenplay. Fox Searchlight may even be able to convert another surprise Best Picture nomination, as they did last year with Little Miss Sunshine.

The picture is not so bright for Joe Wright’s Atonement (Focus), based on Ian McEwen’s acclaimed novel. Focus opened wider with 32 locations, and, although it managed a $7,000 PTA on Friday, the dark period romance may be out-of-step with the mood of moviegoers. Enchanted, This Christmas and now Juno have demonstrated that people are looking for something a bit lighter after the fall offering of dark, disturbing movie fare. It will be interesting to see how Atonement holds up on Saturday, but at the moment, I’m anticipating a weekend PTA of about $23,000.

Other new specialty releases met with mixed results. Dirty Laundry (Code Black Entertainment) with a predominantly African American cast, should deliver a PTA of just over $10,000 at 2 locations, Guy Ritchie’s Revolver (IDP Films) starring Jason Statham and Ray Liotta is headed for a weekend PTA of only $2,500 at 18 locations, and the long-shelved The Amateurs (First Look) will finish with an even softer $1,599 PTA while playing on just 3 screens.