Public Opinion Strategieshttp://pos.org
Turning Questions Into AnswersFri, 16 Nov 2018 19:42:54 +0000en-UShourly138.806163-77.051398Subscribe with My Yahoo!Subscribe with NewsGatorSubscribe with My AOLSubscribe with BloglinesSubscribe with NetvibesSubscribe with GoogleSubscribe with PageflakesSubscribe with PlusmoSubscribe with The Free DictionarySubscribe with Bitty BrowserSubscribe with NewsAlloySubscribe with Live.comSubscribe with Excite MIXSubscribe with Yourminis.comSubscribe with Attensa for OutlookSubscribe with WebwagSubscribe with netomat HubSubscribe with Podcast ReadySubscribe with FlurrySubscribe with WikioSubscribe with Daily Rotation38.806163-77.051398postqiabloghttps://feedburner.google.comThe Kavanaugh Nomination: The Highs and Lowshttp://feedproxy.google.com/~r/postqiablog/~3/iS0JOGZ8O0E/
http://pos.org/the-kavanaugh-nomination-the-highs-and-lows/#respondFri, 16 Nov 2018 19:42:54 +0000http://pos.org/?p=12365The midterm elections – and the September surprise that upended them – are now in the rearview mirror. Of course, I’m alluding to the sexual assault allegations lodged against Justice Brett Kavanaugh by Dr. ]]>The midterm elections – and the September surprise that upended them – are now in the rearview mirror. Of course, I’m alluding to the sexual assault allegations lodged against Justice Brett Kavanaugh by Dr. Christine Blasey Ford and others. Apart from fiercely dividing the country, this episode had two primary quantifiable repercussions: it cemented the trend toward uber-polarization between parties when it comes to their support for Supreme Court nominations, and it helped to rouse a sleepy Republican base to become as fired up for the midterms as Democrats.

A quick refresher: even before the allegations had been made, Kavanaugh’s nomination had set a record for eliciting the weakest support in the initial Gallup read of any nomination since 1991 at just +4% (41% to confirm/37% not to confirm). Fox showed a similar spread of +6 (38% to confirm/32% not to confirm). This was driven by record low support and record high opposition among the party opposite the nominating president – in this case, the Democrats. See the table below:

By the time the dust settled and Kavanaugh was confirmed on October 6, his nomination had set two additional Gallup records.

First, the final Gallup read just prior to his confirmation showed a record high 45% of Americans opposed to his confirmation (46% to confirm/45% not to confirm).

Second, Kavanaugh’s already-low numbers with Democrats worsened slightly to 13%, contributing to a 71% gap – the highest ever recorded between the two parties on a SCOTUS nominee – with Republican support for confirmation clocking in at 84%.

I hypothesized last year that SCOTUS nominees following Neil Gorsuch would 1) likely fall short of the average support for SCOTUS nominees overall (which I pegged at 51%) and 2) would continue to register majority opposition among the opposing party. The Kavanaugh episode supports this hypothesis, and it’s likely to get worse with any future nominees, particularly if they are nominated by President Trump.

It is not surprising that the final Gallup read on the Kavanaugh nomination set such negative records. Democrats were clearly following through on their promised all-out assault on the Kavanaugh nomination during the regularly scheduled hearings, and given the nature of the allegations to come, insofar as public opinion goes, these blows took a toll. What Democrats likely did not expect, however, was that as Kavanaugh’s numbers dipped, Democratic voters’ enthusiasm advantage would also fade away.

Take a look at the table below, which shows the percentage of Republicans and Democrats who rated their interest in the midterm elections as 10 or 9-10 on a scale of 1-10, with ten being extremely interested. This data comes from the NBC-WSJ poll, for which POS is the Republican partner.

Democrats had a decided enthusiasm advantage over Republicans in August, just ahead of the post-Labor Day homestretch. The Washington Post piece on Dr. Ford’s allegation was published on September 16, just as the NBC-WSJ survey was about to field (9/16-19), though the allegation was being teased in the days prior. It’s possible the uptick in GOP enthusiasm in the September survey is a function of both Democrats’ antics during the regular hearings and the incipient appearance of foul play on the part of Senate Judiciary Committee Democrats regarding Dr. Ford’s confidential letter.

Then came the September 27 hearing at which Dr. Ford and Justice Kavanaugh testified. By the October NBC-WSJ read, when voters had had two weeks to digest the testimony of both parties, Republican enthusiasm had shot up by 15 points (10s) and 16 points (9-10s) since August; Democratic enthusiasm had also increased, but not commensurately. The GOP surge would continue.

By Election Day, Democrats’ “10 advantage” had been erased, as Republicans rating their interest as a 10 had increased by 23 points (Democrats by 11 points). Similarly, by Election Day, Republicans who rated their interest as a 9 or 10 had shot up by 20 points (Democrats by 10 points), totally melting the Democrats’ 9-10 advantage. Among core partisans on Election Day, the 9-10’s were tied at 80%, and core Republicans bested core Democrats on the 10’s, 76%-73%. Contrast that with the August data, when core Democrats bested core Republicans on the 10’s, 63%-53%.

Was this rousing of Republican voters a consequence of Kavanaugh alone? It is impossible to say, but probably not. Trump’s focus on immigration likely also played a role, as did the tragic shooting in Pittsburgh. It is likely, however, that the Kavanaugh confirmation battle played an outsized role: in addition to setting new polling records on SCOTUS nominations, election interest data indicates that Kavanaugh’s baptism by fire certainly helped to ignite the Republican base and possibly stave off Democratic hopes of re-taking the Senate.

Polling for NBC News and The Wall Street Journal is conducted by Republican pollster Bill McInturff and Democratic pollster Fred Yang. This analysis is my own and does not necessarily reflect the views of NBC, The Wall Street Journal, or Hart Research Associates.

]]>http://pos.org/farm-to-fork-initiative-survey-release/feed/0http://pos.org/farm-to-fork-initiative-survey-release/http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/tqia/~3/vuXny-8EiS4/Public Opinion Strategies Polls in Five Successful Gubernatorial Races and for Ten New Members of Congresshttp://feedproxy.google.com/~r/postqiablog/~3/CihvX01AZug/
http://pos.org/public-opinion-strategies-polls-in-five-successful-gubernatorial-races-and-for-ten-new-members-of-congress/#respondWed, 07 Nov 2018 17:30:07 +0000http://pos.org/?p=12283

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

CONTACT: 703/836-7655

PUBLIC OPINION STRATEGIES POLLS IN FIVE SUCCESSFUL GUBERNATORIAL RACES AND FOR TEN NEW MEMBERS OF CONGRESS

The survey research firm of Public Opinion Strategies (POS) polled for winning candidates in eleven of the highest profile Gubernatorial races this year,

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FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

CONTACT: 703/836-7655

PUBLIC OPINION STRATEGIES POLLS IN FIVE SUCCESSFUL GUBERNATORIAL RACES AND FOR TEN NEW MEMBERS OF CONGRESS

The survey research firm of Public Opinion Strategies (POS) polled for winning candidates in eleven of the highest profile Gubernatorial races this year, in five of the big GOP wins in Senate races, and for ten new Members of Congress this election cycle. Including independent expenditure efforts, Public Opinion Strategies polled in 16 Senate and Gubernatorial statewide victories and more than 50 Congressional victories.

Major statewide winners were:

Re-elected Governor Doug Ducey of Arizona.

Governor-elect Brian Kemp of Georgia, who came from behind to win both his primary and general election races, leading Stacey Abrams with a run-off unlikely.

Governor Kim Reynolds of Iowa, who won her first election on the top-of-the-ticket to become the state’s first woman Governor.

Governor-elect Kristi Noem, who came from behind to become the first woman
governor of South Dakota.

Re-elected Governor Phil Scott of Vermont.

Re-elected Senator Roger Wicker of Mississippi.

Re-elected Attorneys General Leslie Rutledge of Arkansas and Ken Paxton of Texas.

POS also conducted polling for SuperPACs/Party Committees in the Senate races in Arizona (not yet decided), North Dakota, Tennessee, and Texas, as well as winning gubernatorial races in Alaska, Idaho, New Hampshire, Ohio, Oklahoma, and Tennessee.

]]>http://pos.org/public-opinion-strategies-polls-in-five-successful-gubernatorial-races-and-for-ten-new-members-of-congress/feed/0http://pos.org/public-opinion-strategies-polls-in-five-successful-gubernatorial-races-and-for-ten-new-members-of-congress/http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/tqia/~3/hBC09TYBJ_M/Public Opinion Strategies Election Night Survey – Key Findingshttp://feedproxy.google.com/~r/postqiablog/~3/Ng8y3-9fDkM/
http://pos.org/public-opinion-strategies-election-night-survey-key-findings/#respondWed, 07 Nov 2018 13:38:11 +0000http://pos.org/?p=12273The most positive voter election day mood in more than a decade (42% Right Direction), two-thirds (65%) satisfied with the economy and Trump approval at 46% all mitigated what could have been a Blue Wave yesterday. ]]>The most positive voter election day mood in more than a decade (42% Right Direction), two-thirds (65%) satisfied with the economy and Trump approval at 46% all mitigated what could have been a Blue Wave yesterday. Instead, voters gave the country a split-decision, giving Democrats a narrower than expected margin in the House, while adding to the GOP’s majority in the Senate.

Our election night poll of 1,600 voters shows a record 68% of voters saying their vote was to send a signal to President Trump, but opponents to the President outnumbered supporters by a relatively narrow 37%-31% margin.

As is usually the case in midterm elections, Independent voters led the way for the party gaining seats – voting Democrat by a 53%-41% margin.

Voters’ issue agenda, dominated by the economy in the last midterm, was focused yesterday on health care, the economy and immigration.

While the pre-election focus has been on white suburban women, this poll shows wide gender gaps between men and women regardless of geography.

Don’t look now, but for a growing percentage of Americans election day may no longer be in November – more than 40% of voters, the highest percentage ever, say they cast their ballot before election day.

To learn more about the Public Opinion Strategies Election Night Survey results, please click here to review the Executive Summary slide deck.

]]>http://pos.org/major-political-trends-of-the-2018-cycle/feed/0http://pos.org/major-political-trends-of-the-2018-cycle/http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/tqia/~3/sp2esqfyNjY/Is it time for my Quarter-Century Crisis?http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/postqiablog/~3/Hj5pnqymW0Q/
http://pos.org/is-it-time-for-my-quarter-century-crisis/#respondWed, 18 Jul 2018 19:32:36 +0000http://pos.org/?p=11735Last week I turned 27, and have officially survived two years past a quarter century. But I have yet to have a quarter-century crisis, and recent data suggests I’m in the minority. ]]>Last week I turned 27, and have officially survived two years past a quarter century. But I have yet to have a quarter-century crisis, and recent data suggests I’m in the minority. A recent poll of 25-33 year olds found that 75% have experienced such a crisis.

The survey also found that the top cause of such a crisis is finding a job or career that they are passionate about (61%). Just under half (48%) report feeling anxiety by comparing themselves to more successful friends, with 51% of females reporting this versus only 41% of men.

The concept of periodic crisis in life was first publicized by Canadian psychologist Elliot Jaques. While he was researching artists like Mozart, Raphael, and Gaugin, he realized many of his clients also experienced decline in creative work in their thirties similar to the great artists. He believed as people approached middle-age, they became more aware of the finiteness of their lives, and reported increased fear that they might not reach all their goals. From this, the idea of the midlife crisis was born.

A 2013 poll reported that just twenty-one percent of adults believe a mid-life crisis is a “biological necessity” and 60% thought it was just an excuse for “acting unfavorably” in middle age.

Today, one stereotype of a midlife crisis is buying a new car. In fact, a recent survey found that a quarter of American adults consider it likely they will buy a car, related to a midlife crisis. With some disagreement about the type of car purchased. Men are more drawn to a sports car, with 30% saying they would like a black sports car, in contrast the plurality of women (21%) picked a red SUV.

As I edge towards my 28th birthday, I have a few more years until I am safe from a quarter-century crisis. And, even if I avoid it, there could always be a red midlife crisis SUV in my future.

]]>http://pos.org/is-it-time-for-my-quarter-century-crisis/feed/0http://pos.org/is-it-time-for-my-quarter-century-crisis/http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/tqia/~3/yMWoQ8ZUEiI/Supremely Partisan: the Kavanaugh Nomination Likely to Confirm Recent Trendhttp://feedproxy.google.com/~r/postqiablog/~3/Zg0Pu3Zgb2c/
http://pos.org/supremely-partisan-the-kavanaugh-nomination-likely-to-confirm-recent-trend/#respondTue, 17 Jul 2018 18:18:47 +0000http://pos.org/?p=11726The retirement of Associate Justice of the Supreme Court Anthony Kennedy once again puts the Supreme Court back in the headlines during a heated campaign cycle. ]]>The retirement of Associate Justice of the Supreme Court Anthony Kennedy once again puts the Supreme Court back in the headlines during a heated campaign cycle. And, like the nomination of Neil Gorsuch in 2017, recent survey data surrounding the nomination of Brett Kavanaugh tends to further cement the “new normal” I hypothesized last year regarding increased partisanship relating to SCOTUS nominations.

Unfortunately, there is still a dearth of survey data on the Kavanaugh nomination, but the recent Fox News poll does shed some useful light: fully 38% of voters say they would vote to confirm the judge, while 32% say they would not. Some key data:

This +6 spread is considerably narrower than that enjoyed by Neil Gorsuch in the Fox Poll when he was first nominated (49%-37%).

Notably, it is also below the average initial support for nominees (51%) that I calculated at the time President Trump tapped Gorsuch.

Moreover, it is the worst initial read (using Fox Poll trend) since the initial read of the doomed nomination of Harriet Miers in 2005 (37% confirm/32% not to confirm).

As an aside, it is worth noting that most of the data on which I based my blog post last year came from Gallup, but unfortunately, they do not have any Kavanaugh data just yet. Nonetheless, the Fox poll does tell virtually the same story – namely, that initial public support for recent SCOTUS nominees is tightening (or at least below average in some cases) because a majority of members of the party opposite the nominating president oppose confirmation, a trend that began in 2009 with Sonia Sotomayor’s nomination. The table below illustrates this trend (again, the trend data from Thomas through Gorsuch comes from Gallup, while the Kavanaugh data comes from Fox):

As I noted last year, the Harriet Miers case was unusual in and of itself, perhaps accounting for the majority of Democrats opposing her confirmation initially. But, assuming Gallup and/or other respected public polling outfits will soon register a similar number on Kavanaugh’s nomination among Democrats, we will be able to say with confidence that Kavanaugh’s nomination to the Court will have registered the lowest initial support and perhaps the highest opposition numbers of any nominee among a partisan group for over 25 years.

Of course, none of this is to suggest that Kavanaugh himself is responsible for these numbers. Nonetheless, based on recent history, we can expect public opinion on his nomination to further tighten as his hearings begin and Senate Democrats launch their promised assault to try to defeat his nomination.

]]>http://pos.org/supremely-partisan-the-kavanaugh-nomination-likely-to-confirm-recent-trend/feed/0http://pos.org/supremely-partisan-the-kavanaugh-nomination-likely-to-confirm-recent-trend/http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/tqia/~3/MGfs9FYWPto/500 Days of President Trumphttp://feedproxy.google.com/~r/postqiablog/~3/T0qHZ64hYdU/
http://pos.org/500-days-of-president-trump/#respondFri, 15 Jun 2018 16:27:25 +0000http://pos.org/?p=11523One of the storied barometers of an American president’s standing with voters is the “100-day Mark,” which President Trump has long since passed. Polls conducted around that time in April 2017 pegged the president’s job approval at a relative low compared to previous presidents, ]]>One of the storied barometers of an American president’s standing with voters is the “100-day Mark,” which President Trump has long since passed. Polls conducted around that time in April 2017 pegged the president’s job approval at a relative low compared to previous presidents, with his approval rating clocking in at 40%. Roughly 400 days later, polling conducted around the 500-day mark offers three main insights:

It records a slight uptick in Trump’s job performance from the 100-day mark;

It simultaneously underscores the ossification of Americans’ views of his job performance;

And yet, when placed in historical perspective, it could ultimately prove to be of little consequence given that Trump has not yet served even half of his term.

On day 506 in office, Gallup records Trump’s job approval at 42% (the latest weekly average). Similarly, NBC-WSJ, for which Public Opinion Strategies is the Republican partner, pegs the president’s approval rating at 44% in its latest June survey.

The table below displays past presidents’ approval ratings at approximately the same 500-day mark in their presidencies, as recorded by Gallup. For all of these presidents except Gerald Ford and Lyndon Johnson, who both assumed office part-way through the previous president’s term, this corresponds to June of their second year in office. Those June Gallup approval averages, though they track closely with the 500-day mark data, are also provided in the table:

While Trump’s approval rating at the 500-day mark is below the average of 56%, he is certainly not alone: six other presidents have seen approval ratings under 56% at this point in their presidencies, including presidents who would later leave office with high marks. The data for these presidents appear in the table below:

Not only is there room to grow, but there is also historical precedent for such growth. The challenge for President Trump is that his approval rating fluctuates far less than those of previous presidents: all of his Gallup job approval reads have fallen within a ten-point window, 35%-45%. Moreover, his average approval rating stands at just 39%. By way of contrast, President Obama’s approval in his first 500 days in office saw a high of 67% and a low of 47%; throughout his two terms, his approval ranged from 40%-67%, a window nearly three-times as wide as Trump’s.

The jury is still out as to whether the president can expand this window; his record-low approval rating of 10% among members of the opposing party—in this case, Democrats—certainly is a barrier in this regard. Whether the Republican tax reform or a long hoped-for détente with North Korea or perhaps some unforeseen circumstance or event could help to expand this window for his job approval to increase remains to be seen.

]]>http://pos.org/500-days-of-president-trump/feed/0http://pos.org/500-days-of-president-trump/http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/tqia/~3/GlU4gnjGT2M/Sugar Spans the Partisan Dividehttp://feedproxy.google.com/~r/postqiablog/~3/n0qt1_l6rCM/
http://pos.org/sugar-spans-the-partisan-divide/#respondFri, 08 Jun 2018 13:51:29 +0000http://pos.org/?p=11484Public Opinion Strategies has a candy bowl at the front desk. The selection of candy is expertly curated by our office manager, who can tell you the candy preference of almost everyone on staff. ]]>Public Opinion Strategies has a candy bowl at the front desk. The selection of candy is expertly curated by our office manager, who can tell you the candy preference of almost everyone on staff. On my several-times-daily trip to the front for a mini Krackle Bar, I’ve learned that some of the POS partners prefer dark chocolate, while others strictly stick to pink Starbursts (it’s a POS policy all survey responses remain anonymous).

In October of 2017, Morning Consult asked 2,201 U.S. adults what their candy preferences were in light of the upcoming holiday. Overall, Americans preferred chocolate treats to sugary (Hershey’s over Pixie Sticks, for example). Morning Consult provided respondents with a list of 40 different candies, ranging from Skittles to Hot Tamales to Kit Kat Bars. Forty-five percent of respondents said their favorite was Reese’s, distantly followed by Snickers at 31%, and M&M’s at 20%.

My favorite candy places me squarely in the realm of outlier. My favorite treat is a Hawaiian spin on a classic: Li Hing Sour Hula Keiki. In plain English, it’s Sour Patch Kids (keiki is the Hawaiian word for kids) covered in salted, dried plum powder, which makes the snack salty, sweet, and sour. Only four percent of Morning Consult respondents preferred Sour Patch, and a full 16% said it was their least favorite candy (plain, not Hawaiian style).

Morning Consult also asked a series of more typical survey research questions, including direction of the country and presidential job approval. Amongst all adults in October 2017, 40% of respondents approved of the job Donald Trump was doing, while 56% disapproved. The trend held steady when looking at candy preference.

The same is true when considering the mood of the country.

But before the Trump re-election campaign starts handing out Reese’s Peanut Butter Cups at rallies, in 2014 the Washington Post examined nearly 50,000 interviews about candy preference, partisanship, and voter turnout, and found no significant connections. Simply, candy isn’t seen as a political expression of values, unlike something like car choice.

What the Washington Post did find was that M&M’s span the partisan divide from their wide variety of offerings (peanut, crispy, dark, etc), and occupy spots on all parts of their chart.