We’re less than 8 months away from the May 2015 election so here’s my latest running check on how candidate selection is going in our held and key target seats…

I published a first draft of this list a year ago, and asked readers to help me update it. Many thanks to those of you who have helped me keep it updated, including the party’s Candidates Services Office. Here’s the latest version of the list of (re-)selections in our held seats and the top 50 targets for the party.

It’s a snapshot of how the party’s doing in getting people in place in the battleground seats that will determine the extent of Lib Dem influence in the next parliament:

With less than a year to the next election, the Lib Dems have candidates in place in 38 of our top 50 targets. Realistically, seats currently held by the Tories are more likely prospects for the party. However, there still remain 4 Tory targets in the overall top 50 where the party has neither selected a candidate nor yet advertised for one. If there’s one thing we know about developing and winning seats, it’s the importance of selecting a credible candidate good and early.

How are we doing on the female:male candidate selection? Well, we’ve gone backwards since my last update owing to Sarah Yong’s decision to stand down as candidate in Somerset and Frome, replaced by former Newbury MP, David Rendel. As a result, four of the nine seats currently held by Lib Dems where the MPs are retiring (or, in Mike Hancock’s case, suspended and so ineligible for reselection) have selected women candidates. In a fifth, Brent East, the party has selected a candidate from a visible ethnic minority, Ibrahim Taguri. In a sixth, Portsmouth South, the party has selected a gay man, Gerald Vernon-Jackson. In a seventh, Redcar, the party has selected a 26 year-old, Josh Mason. That’s not such a bad recent diversity record.

However, the overall picture is still not great: the Lib Dems currently have 11 women selected to stand in our 57 held seats – that’s 19% women to 81% men. In the top 50 target seats, of which 38 have selected candidates so far, there are more than twice twice as many men (27) as women (11).

Held seats:
Number of women currently expected to be standing in 2015: 11/57 (19%)

Top 50 target seats:
Number of women currently selected in 2015: 11/50 (22%)
Number of men currently selected in 2015: 27/50 (54%)

The lists below are my best understanding of the current situation. Please do let me know if you can help me update it.

Here’s the full list of the 57 MPs elected as Liberal Democrats in May 2010:

The party publishes information on the overall diversity of candidates selected so far (though note this includes all candidates, in seats both winnable as well as those which aren’t)…

Parliamentary Candidates standing for 2015 General Election

Figures valid as of August 2014.

The total number of candidates currently selected: 172
Total number of selected women: 43 (25%)
Total number of selected candidates identifying as Black, Asian or Ethnic Minority (BAME): 16 (9%)
Total number of selected candidates identifying as LGBT: 7 (4%)
Total number of selected candidate who identify as disabled: 2 (1%)
6 of the 7 candidates replacing retiring MPs in this cycle are from under-represented groups. 4 are women and 2 are from Black, Asian or Minority Ethnic backgrounds.

The representation of BME and Women candidates in potentially winnable seats is not looking very healthy at all.

When the list is reread alongside the excellent report produced by Operation Black Vote, and written by our very own Lester Holloway ‘Power of the Black Vote at the 2015 general election’ it just goes to show that if we had invested over the past four years in overtly positive race equality policies and encouraged and supported more BME candidates to stand we may well have had an even greater chance of success in 2015.

To quote from some old school reports “with some genuine application you could do so much better”.

Given the fact that nominations have o be in one weeks before the polling day in May, would it not ake more sees to work back from lastly for nominations? That would be much less than 8 months. Take out a month for Chistmas and bad weather and the amount of time left for even a token campaign is minimal. If the leadership had set out with the intention of killing off the party in hundreds of seats it cold not have been worse.

But here is a radical suggestion, as many of these seats will in practice end up with a candidate from some list, who may never even have isited the c onstituency, why not compose that list entirely of new BAME candidates? Then for 2020 they will have had five years to build up the constituency from rock bottom or they Move to a more winnable seat wil have had the invaluable experience of being a candidate in at leas tone election. How much better than providing candidates from the usual lists. I know it is taboo to mention that his sort of thing goes on but’next years Election with Clegg still dragging the party down wil be a disaster anyway. So how about it? A few hundred BAME candidates in 2015? Why not?

Rob, the catastrophe for the national party has been Nick Cleggs’ disastrous leadership. I want more Lib Dem MPs of whatever colour, sex or creed. We are in danger of coming out with less than 20 MPs in 2015. That is the disaster.

@Ruwan You know I am with yo all the way with your analysis and comment above Am right to assume EMLD is working closely with Paddy Ashdown and the Wheelhouse group on a General Election strategy to optimise the BME vote for Liberal Democrats ?

@ Paul Barker – think from following the link provided by Lester Holloway and from reading the last few paragraphs of the article, I am right or neat enough in that less than 3/10th of seats have ppcs in place.

It is truly dire. What is worse that stuck on 7% in the polls, probably less after Clacton it hardly matters who is selected in as much as they have not the slightest chance of winning. Still we have these theoretical debates about all women shortlist and lack of BAME candidates instead of trying to change the image of our party.

@ Caracatus. Fair point looking at the list. Isnt it possible though that a lot of Parties have in effect already decided to carry on with the same PPC, making Selction a formality ? You dont want to go changing your Candidate every 5 years just for the sake of change.

I am increasingly concerned about the three sitting MPs in Highland, given the 47% vote for separation last Thursday. Highland bucked the trend for rural areas to be strongly pro-union, and support for separation in the region appears to have increased dramatically during the course of the campaign. Much of this surge seems to have focused on Caithness. I hope that John Thurso is aware of this and is doing something about it.

Paul Barker No, your proposition doesn’t make sense. Everyone has to be reselected, MP, or PPC. An advert has to go out, under Party rules for those who are Parliamentary spokespeople. They are not allowed to carry such a title until formal selection. If a PPC from 2010 seriously wishes to carry on, they should long ago have asked constituency Exec to do the formal selection. I am afraid your hyper-optimism has taken over again!

Tim13 21st Sep ’14 – 12:22am
“……., Everyone has to be reselected, MP, or PPC. An advert has to go out, under Party rules for those who are Parliamentary spokespeople. ”

All true and relevant nowadays in maybe a hundred or so seats where we have anything lke an organisation.

In hundreds of other seats there will be a last minute stitch up where candidates will be plucked from a list so that the party can still make a bogus pretence of being a national political party. This is the result of the continuous decline and demoralisation of local parties during seven years of Clegg.

And yes you are right about the fantasies of paul barker, whose role in LDV reminds me of the royal tailors in the story of the Emperor’s new clothes.

So for hundreds of seats outside London we have managed just 7 candidates who can easily be identified as BAME.

As you say — It is quick shocking that only one person of African or Caribbean background has been selected so far, and that is in the most unwinnable of unwinnable seats.

Nick Clegg was fast-tracked to move from unknown public schoolboy to party leader in something less than fifteen years.
One conclusions is that there has always been positive discrimination to favour rich, white males.

As a self-confessed Cassandra on our prospects in 2015, I have previously predicted that we will have hundred of lost deposits next year. I am now wondering if that is true. To have a lost deposit you first need to have a candidate.

I was very clear, ethnicity is self defined. For clarity, I was referring to visible minorities, which organizations like Operation Black Vote were established to improve the representation of. This is also something that many from visible minority a judge in terms of BAME inclusivity rather than the higher number a party might boast of. So no problem with Steve Bradley defining as BAME, if he has, but his selection won’t change the image of the party to Black and Asian communities.

@Richard S
If the Irish e.g Steve Beadley are to be counted as BAME then why not include the Sots Michael Moore, Jo Swinson et al ? Then the Party could claim we even have BAME Minsters ….
I am afraid you miss the point about BAME represenatation completely I can only hope you are in a minority of ONE !

Paul in Wokingham
a very good point.
Can you remind me of the date by which nomination forms have to be handed in to returning officers for the 2015 General Election?
Is it some time towards the end of March 2015 ? In other words something like 190 days.

For the first time ever, because of the fixed term parliament legislation, we have known for years what the date of the next General Election will be. And yet the leadership of our party which has heaped failure upon failure over the last seven years can now add another shocking failure. The failure to inspire and encourage local parties to pick a candidate in time.

Why not take advantage of the situation as it is?
Compile a list of 100 BAME party members and demand that they be placed in those seats which Require a candidate.

According to StephennTall’s original piece, there are hundreds of seats with vacancies and we know that they will ot be filled by the traditional selection procedure . The powers that be in the party “provide” candidates for hundreds of constituencies because there is no time left to do anything else. So in practice 100 BAME candidates could be in place by next March.

100 BAME candidates will gain some experience of being a General Election candidate and would change the face of the party. They could then go onto the 2020 General Election with five years to establish themselves and build up the party in their constituency.

@ John Tilley
On the face of it not all at all a bad proposition
But there are a few flaws with the idea
1 Why would BME candidates invest their time, effort and money when the Pary places such little value on their on their contribution ?
2. It is most unlikely that the custodians of the Party beaureaucracy will allow such an approach
3 There are not a 100 BME candidates on the approved list
4. Few local Parties will buy into such an approach
5. ETC ETC ETC

Sorry John / Jayne – Progressing your suggestion will only be seen as another example of the Party using the BME members / supporters/ voters/ doners as they always do – to help the Party get what it wants / needs with little or no intention of rewarding or even properly acknowledging that contribution

@ Rabi Martins,
As a long time voter but not a member, may I ask what you have to lose?

I don’t know the cost emotional as well as financial for those who put themselves forward ( if not 100, the number on the list), but the experience would be invaluable for future bids.

What reasons would the custodians of the party give for refusing such an approach? I would find that interesting given what John Tilley has said.

Why would local parties not buy into such an approach? I would be interested to know. Perhaps representatives of local parties could answer that question on here. We know that from the number of BAME Conservative candidates selected and successful in areas where there are not large Bame populations, it is not we the voters who are putting up barriers, but some of the party grassroots who think they speak on our behalf.( I never thought I would find a reason to praise David Cameron but on his drive for more women and BAME candidates , I do).

Some people will always put up barriers to change. Take a deep breathe, take several, and start trying to knock them down.

Rabi Martins
Taking your points —
1. Why? – because there is an opportunity to capitalise on the situation as it is. The party is short of candidates in hundreds of seats. Don’t wait for them to do you a favour, grasp the initiative and embarrass the party into making the biggest step it ever has on giving a large number of BAME candidates the chance to establish themselves. Take the power and use it.
2. Demand that the bureaucrats act, don’t be fobbed off and by default allowa list of white public school boys occupy hose places. If you take the how will the bureaucrats stop you?
3. How many BAME candidates are there on the approved list? If there are not one hundred, are there fifty? Thatbwould be a huge,step forwardWhy not a rapid increase in the number on the approved list?

Rabi Martins
Apology for typos — I hope you can read through them.
I really think there is a window of opportunity. The chance is for a quick win. The party needs candidates and it needs them now.
BAME members of the party could take advantage of this,
Never mind what the bureaucrats might say. You know that if you wait for them to do anything we will not see 100 BAME candidates for a century.
Don’t be defeatist. Don’t wait for someone up there at the top of the party to do something. Be creative, grasp the nettle. What have you got to lose?
During my 44 years in the party I have listened to people at the top of the party mouth platitudes about equality but nothing has happened. They will not do anything about it, but you can.
As I said in an earlier comment — if Nick Clegg can be fast tracked from unknown public schoolboy to leader of the party in 15 years, it is time for some fast tracking of BAME members.

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