Cain's surge has disappeared, which we can likely blame on Bachmann. But Pawlenty might come off worst. He fell below the margin of error, and that was after he fell from 6% to 4% from April to June. Here's when you dismiss national polling -- hey, there's no way the running-on-fumes Gingrich campaign is in competition with Pawlenty. He's organizing in the early states, and Gingrich's staff is leaving him. But in order for Pawlenty to surge again, he needs... what? A Bachmann implosion? Possible. A Perry implosion? Okay, we're pushing it.