NRSC trips over grass roots

A strong class of GOP recruits in marquee Senate races is in danger of being upended in contentious primary elections, thanks to the emergence of a group of formerly long-shot primary challengers who have gone from being skunks at the party to belles of the ball.

Polls show at least four candidates favored by the National Republican Senatorial Committee would lose their primaries if the elections were held today. And five other committee-preferred candidates are entangled in competitive contests that are far from sure bets.

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In the early stages of the election cycle, the NRSC’s ability to lock in top-tier talent like Florida Gov. Charlie Crist, former Connecticut Rep. Rob Simmons, Kentucky Secretary of State Trey Grayson and former Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina in California appeared to be huge wins for the party, not to mention shrewd political plays.

But now, GOP primary fields in some of the most competitive Senate races in the country have been turned upside down. Crist, once considered a shoo-in for the Senate seat vacated by Republican Mel Martinez, trails badly in the polls to former state House Speaker Marco Rubio and is on the verge of abandoning the GOP to run as an independent. Simmons and Grayson trail by double digits and Fiorina is also running behind in recent primary polling. In Colorado and New Hampshire, two highly touted female contenders have also run into serious resistance.

“It’s very clear to me that all the assumptions, all the rules that governed campaigns previous to 2010 are out the window,” said Colorado Republican Party Chairman Dick Wadhams. “What I do think is happening in Colorado and other states, is that endorsements don’t mean a darn thing in 2010, whether it be political committees or elected officials.”

While each race has its own unique dynamic, several Republicans familiar with the Senate landscape said Washington’s continued overemphasis on the ability to raise money — a critical factor weighed heavily by party leaders at all levels of politics — is one reason the NRSC’s best-laid plans have gone awry.

Sheer fundraising prowess is one reason that Cornyn backtracked on his no-endorsement pledge and supported Crist’s candidacy in May of last year — a decision few Republicans find fault with. Still, Ana Navarro, a veteran Florida GOP fundraiser who supports Rubio, said she strongly disagreed with the NRSC’s early and public intervention.

“I cannot blame the GOP structure for wanting to support a guy who looked like a shoo-in. But those things should not be said or done in public because it could end up looking heavy handed and backfiring,” Navarro said. “Charlie Crist was the No. 1 draft pick a year ago, and the guy turned out to be a lemon. The NRSC is now in the awkward position where they have to admit a mistake.”

Other NRSC picks made in the spring and summer of 2009 have also hit a wall of grass-roots anti-establishment fervor.

Back in August, 23 GOP senators, including Cornyn and Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, held a D.C. fundraiser for Grayson’s bid to succeed outgoing Sen. Jim Bunning. Eight months later and just three weeks before the primary, physician Rand Paul holds a 15-percentage-point advantage over Grayson, according to the latest SurveyUSA automated poll.

Paul’s campaign, riding a wave of tea party support, said it was encouraged by the “blowback against the NRSC fundraising” among voters in Kentucky, calling it a tactical error.