~ a (retired) San Diego Padres blog

Category Archives: player evaluation

We’ve noted many times over the years that relief pitchers are a fickle bunch. We only get 60 or 70 innings to evaluate each season, making the effort of predicting their future performance an at times futile one. Luke Gregerson was dominant in his first two seasons in San Diego, but despite a drop in ERA, he struggled in 2011. The numbers:

Gregerson struck out nearly 30 percent of batters in his first two seasons. Last year, his strikeout percentage fell to 14.1. That’s an alarming drop.

Using the new PITCHf/x tool created by Brooks Baseball and The Hardball Times, we can take a quick look inside the numbers. Gregerson relies heavily on the slider and below are some of his numbers for that pitch:

Year

SL%

MPH

Call Str.

Swings

Whiffs/Swings

2009

51

84.1

15.8

55.3

46.7

2010

59

84.7

17.4

53.3

40.1

2011

54

85.5

13.6

52.3

33.5

Gregerson is still getting batters to swing at his slider, however, when they do swing they are much less likely to miss, as evidenced by the decline in Whiffs/Swings from 46.7 percent in 2009 to just 33.5 percent last season.

It’s also important to note that while Gregerson’s slider velocity has actually increased, his fastball and sinker velocity have decreased over the past three seasons, perhaps making his slider less deceptive and/or allowing batters to wait that much longer to recognize the slider.

Can Gregerson remain successful striking out only 14 percent of batters? It’s unlikely. While his home run rate was excellent in 2011, as he allowed just two home runs all year, that’s almost certainly going to increase in 2012. Only 3.8 percent of his fly balls traveled over the fence last year and that number tends to regress heavily toward the league average (~11 percent).

A sub-two strikeout-walk-ratio and a more normal HR/FB rate will likely lead to an ERA well into the threes. Out of the bullpen and in Petco Park, there just isn’t a lot of value there.

It’s impossible to tell if Gregerson will regain his swing-and-miss ways, but the over-reliance on the slider is worrisome. He missed a month in 2011 with a strained left oblique, and you have to be concerned that further injuries and/or decline in velocity could continue due to the high slider percentage.

Gregerson is a personal favorite and I’m certainly hoping he can regain his 2009-2010 form. Keep a close eye on his early season strikeout percentage and whiff rates for an indicator as to how his 2012 campaign might unfold.

I thought I would take a look at the Padres current roster and offer my opinions and thoughts on how the Padres may be viewing/valuing their established players. I am leaving off some of the younger players that still need some more evaluation time and/or are not expected to receive a lot of playing time in 2012 at the major league level. I would like to see some more data and playing time for players like Luebke and Cashner. I have made a couple exceptions, however. Moseley and Guzman are included as I feel the organization likely has a pretty good feel for what they have in these two. I take into consideration surplus value, absolute value, internal pressures, intangibles, and external pressures such as free agent and trade availability.

A team like the Padres has to put an emphasis on surplus value when considering how a roster takes shape and how that roster will evolve in the coming years. I consider the Padres to be a team that needs to have a surplus value ratio of around 4 to 1 on average in order to be a serious contender to make the playoffs. Other teams, such as the Yankees and Red Sox, have the luxury of being able to put emphasis on absolute value. This means if they need an extra 5 WAR to be playoff competitive, they can pay $20-$25m/year for a player that they feel confident can be a 5 WAR player.

A team like the Padres, on the other hand, need several of their lower priced and cost controlled players to overachieve by more than a 4 to 1 WAR value to cost ratio. The Padres have seen players like Maybin, Venable, Headley, Gregerson, and Richards fit with this mold. At some point, though, these players’ salaries go up and they lose their value to a team like the Padres. These same players, however, may still represent value to teams like the Yankees. This is in a nutshell why the Padres have had to trade several of their high profile and high absolute value players.

There are also internal pressures for a team to consider when evaluating a player’s future on the roster. Those players that are highly regarded in the minors and those players viewed as acceptable trade off in value in order to make other roster accommodations. Surely, the Padres are thinking about Gyorko, Forsythe, and Darnell when considering Headley’s future with the team. I will go into more detail on Headley later.

There is some question as to how much intangibles should factor into placing or keeping a player on the roster. Mark Kotsay is a great example where intangibles should be considered and discussed. Intangibles can be things such as club house morale and attitude, fan appreciation and attraction (Trevor Hoffman comes to mind), and the ability to mentor younger players.

Although the Padres are not considered big spenders in free agency, they must consider the talent available in free agency and via trade when deciding how to shape the roster.

Pitching Staff

Luke Gregerson

Gregerson is entering his fourth ML season, all with the Padres. Gregerson is scheduled to make $1.55 million in 2012. His value in terms of WAR plummeted in 2011, largely due to his K/9 being cut in half and his innings reduced over 25%. Despite a drop in ERA, it was a down year for Gregerson. I expect the K/9 last year to be an outlier as his previous pro experience from the minors through the big leagues has seen consistency in his K/9. Gregerson has been a consistently solid bullpen piece for the Padres. I would expect .7 to 1.2 WAR out of Gregerson over each of the next couple years. Essentially, he is worth around $3 to $6 million/year.

Clearly, at $1.55m, he represents a value for the Padres. I see no reason why the Padres would be under any pressure to move him this year. However, now that he is entering his arbitration years I could see the Padres listening to offers at the trade deadline in 2012 and perhaps actively shopping him next offseason. Next offseason, he would be due another raise. I am no expert at predicting arbitration salaries but I think it would likely be between $2-$3m for 2013. By 2013, the Padres will have plenty of internal pressure pushing them to consider moving Gregerson. These internal pressures include Brach, Boxburger, Vincent, and Mikolas. All would represent possible adequate replacement or improvement in terms of absolute value at a much lower cost than $2-$3 million. So, expect to see Gregerson gone by 2013 and for the right deal he could be moved this trade deadline season.

Dustin Moseley

As of the writing of this article, Moseley and the Padres have not yet agree to a contract for 2012. When all is said and done, he will likely earn around $2m for 2012 (Update: just signed for $2.0125m). Moseley has never pitched more than 120 innings in a ML season, 2011 being the most to this point. I am going to assume Moseley wins the final starting rotation spot out of spring training and adds to his career high innings pitched total. If he can manage to put up similar results as last year and pitch 150+ innings, with some slight statistical regression, he could be a 1 WAR player in 2012. This assumes that he stays healthy longer than he did last year. If reasonably healthy he could provide $4m-$6m in absolute value, which given his likely 2012 salary represents a decent value return to the Padres. Moseley will likely find himself in a similar position as Gregerson. If in house candidates like Oramas, Erlin, Kelly, Wieland, and Reyes show advancement in 2012, we could see Moseley traded so that better, younger, cheaper talent can have their shot. Pitching depth is always valuable, so like Gregerson, there will be no big hurry to trade him. The Padres really have no reason to pay Moseley likely over $3m in 2013 and continue to hold back in house alternatives.

Clayton Richard

When healthy, Richard is between a 1 and 1.5 WAR pitcher. This places his value at around $6-7m in a given season. Because Richard has essentially been making the league minimum, he had provided a good deal of value for the Padres. At his best he is providing more than a 10 to 1 WAR value ratio. He is exactly the kind of pitcher that fits well in SD for the first four years of his career. Unfortunately, Richard is entering his fourth year and now makes $2.705m for the 2012 season. His value to the Padres is quickly diminishing. Richard should provide solid value again this season for the Padres, but 2013 could see him earning $4-6m. This doesn’t mean Richard will definitely be moving on from the Padres in the short-term. He is becoming a veteran pitcher and still has value. The Padres will have several pitchers to make decisions on after 2012 due to increasing salaries and internal replacement options. Richard is one of them. My guess is that Richard is back again in 2013 and traded mid-season or after the 2013 season. But, given his rising cost, the Padres would be smart to listen to offers before then.

Tim Stauffer

Stauffer has become a fan favorite and arguably the # 1 pitcher on the current Padres staff. I see Stauffer as a solid two WAR pitcher. He is a #3 on a good pitching staff and a #2 on average or weak staff. Stauffer has two years of team control left and is scheduled to make $3.2m this year. He is still providing very good value and will likely return a 3 to 1 WAR value ratio in 2012. He will be in line for a salary of $5-$7 in his final year of arbitration. The Padres could decide to listen to offers for Stauffer after this season. I have to believe the Padres are going to ask for a very good prospect or two for Stauffer. With the glut of young pitchers coming up though, the Padres would be wise to keep Stauffer around to mentor them and help carry this staff. I could see the Padres buying out one year of free agency and coming to a two year deal next off season that would keep Stauffer a Padre through 2014.

Huston Street

Unless the Padres and Street exercise his 2013 mutual option, Street will be a free agent following the 2012 campaign. The Padres are on the hook for about $7m between this years salary, the 500k buyout, and what the Rockies are covering. Street consistently put up between 1 to 1.5 WAR each season, not bad for a relief pitcher. However, $7m is essentially fair market value for Street and offers nothing in terms of surplus value to the Padres. A mid-season trade makes a lot of sense for the Padres and Huston Street. If they don’t trade him, they are looking at $9m next year or losing him to FA. I suppose the Padres could sign him to a two year extension, however, given the multitude of players due arbitration raises in 2013, an extension that would likely be in the neighborhood of 2/$16m seems unlikely. The most likely scenario is the Padres trade him for a decent prospect at the trade deadline. However, should the Padres find themselves in a playoff race as late as July, they could hold on to him should a quality prospect not be offered in trade.

Joe Thatcher

Inconsistent is a word I could use to describe the “Prime Minister.” Thatcher was injured most of 2011. Prior to 2011 he saw his ERA, K rates, and BB rates fluctuate wildly from year to year. Thatcher is valuable as a lefty specialist. If healthy (common theme), Thatcher could return one WAR in 2012. Because of injury, limited innings, and inconsistency I am only expecting .5 WAR. Still, his 700k salary in his first year of arbitration eligibility makes him a solid value in 2012 and likely in 2013 as well. Personally, I like Thatcher and I think if he puts his injury behind him he will be a solid bullpen contributor for a couple more years. Loogy’s as they are often referred to, are a valuable commodity. Should Spence continue to be very effective at the big league level, the Padres could begin taking offers for Thatcher should his value come back up. Still, I see him with the Padres for at least two more seasons since the Padres value bullpen depth and Thatcher should remain affordable.

Edinson Volquez

Could Volquez be the best piece of the Latos trade? Maybe for 2012. Volquez has been something of an enigma thus far in his career. Injury has derailed Volquez after splashing onto the scene in 2008. At age 28 and presumably healthy, he’ll get a chance to start again in the pitchers paradise that we all love and hate… Petco. Volquez has good stuff and his K rates are still strong. The question for Balsley and Black is if they can get his control and psyche back on track. If so, Volquez could potentially have a great bounce back year and could be a comeback player of the year candidate. This makes his value very difficult to determine. Volquez will make $2.2375m for 2012. This means he only needs to be a .5 WAR pitcher for the Padres to receive any value. He posted .5 WAR or more three times. Assuming he is healthy and improves at Petco under Black and Balsey, two WAR is a real possibility. Volquez still has another year of control left after 2012. If Volquez is pitching well and the Padres are in contention, there will be no pressure to move his reasonable salary and pending FA putting pressure on them to move him for fear of losing him. If he is pitching well and the Padres are out of contention, he could draw serious interest and return the Padres a solid prospect at mid-season. If Volquez is an utter failure, the Padres will have spent a little over $2m and he was the fourthpiece in the Latos trade. Great risk reward profile for the Padres. My guess is the Padres move him in next year’s offseason or the 2013 trade deadline. If he can prove he can outpitch Moseley, he should be on next year’s roster. Volquez’s future will largely depend on how the Padres perform as a team in the first half of 2012.

Offense

John Baker

Baker is the return the Padres received for Wade Leblanc. Baker is another Padre player with injury questions for 2012. He had only 104 PAs total over the last two years combined. Baker is a below average defensive catcher, although not horrific. His offense is the reason the Padres acquired him. A .757 career OPS for a catcher is solid. When healthy, Baker is a solid 1-1.5 WAR backup catcher. At $750k, he is a definite bargain for the Padres. Baker will still be under club control for two more years after 2012. He could be affordable enough for the Padres to keep through 2014. The problem with betting on Baker long-term as a Padre is the internal replacement pressures that Byrnes and Black are going to have to face. Hagerty is 1-2 years away and Grandal might be one year away. Grandal already projects to be an upgrade over Baker and Hagerty could replace Baker’s offense at a cheaper price. I cannot envision Baker with the Padres past 2013. Whether or not Baker is with the team in 2013 will depend on Grandal’s continued development. If Baker can prove he is healthy, he could net the Padres a return with a little more value than Wade Leblanc. Look for Baker to be moved after the 2012 season and prior to the trade deadline in 2013.

Nick Hundley

Injuries are becoming a common theme for the Padres going into 2012. Hundley was having a career year in 2011 before being sidelined with injuries. Still, he managed to post over three WAR. He would have likely yielded over four WAR in value had he not been injured. Hundley has shown improvement in both offense and defense since being called up in 2008. He is a “core” player that the Padres need to build with. Despite internal pressure coming from Grandal, I think the Padres would be wise to lock Hundley up to an extension that would buy out at least one year of FA. A healthy Hundley entering his prime could routinely put up 3-5 WAR. This makes him a bargain until his salary gets close to $10m.

The Padres have three years of control left including 2012. Hundley likely won’t reach the $10m salary mark until he hits free agency. I would advocate that the Padres would be wise to keep Hundley around even when Grandal is ready. I see nothing wrong with having 2 stud catchers for a couple years. I would like to see the Padres and Hundley agree to a 3/$18 type deal next offseason. I have suggested the Padres may begin trading some of their 1-2WAR players that are in arbitration years. Hundley should not be in that category for two reasons. The Padres need to retain some players that have high absolute WAR values. They can have the best bargain team on the planet at $50m, but a team full of 1-2 war players is only going to win around 70 games. The other reason to keep Hundley around is that catching is a premium position and when you have a catcher that is capable of getting a few All-Star votes you generally should keep him if you can afford him.

Jason Bartlett

Rumors persist that Bartlett is on the trade block. Bartlett has averaged around 2-2.5 WAR, depending on which WAR model you prefer, over the course of his career. That performance is in a downward tail spin since the 2009 season. At 32, Bartlett may be leaving his prime years. That said, I still believe Bartlett should produce closer to his career average next season. 1.5-2 WAR for a player that has averaged more and is in a contract year is not too big a stretch, IMO. I am not sure I buy into all the trade talk surrounding Bartlett. Even his $7m (includes $1.5m buyout) salary is close to his WAR value in 2011. Adequate shortstops are always in demand and I have to believe some team would have already traded for Bartlett is he was freely available. If Bartlett is truly on the block, this would mean the Padres must have some solid confidence in Everth Cabrera and his ability to stay healthy. After Bartlett and Cabrera, the Padres have nobody that could play shortstop adequately on a routine basis. Forysthe and Parrino could fill in for a very short term. The shortage of shortstop replacements has me believing Bartlett may stay with the team for all of 2012 and even be back in 2013 if his option is earned or picked up by the Padres. Players have a tendency to perform better during contract years.

Jesus Guzman

Guzman may have been the most pleasant surprise of the 2011 season for the Padres. Despite his defensive limitations, he managed to put up two WAR in half a season. Guzman will see plenty of at bats in 2012. He will likely platoon with Alonso at first, spell Headley once in a blue moon at third, play outfield on occasion, and DH in AL parks. I would expect the Padres to find Guzman 400-500 AB’s. I believe Guzman still has a full slate of team control left. If Guzman can hit in 2012 anywhere close to his 2011 showing, he could find himself to be a very valuable commodity. The Padres could decide to trade him to an AL team needing a DH or they could hang onto him for his bat. I for one, hope the Padres hang onto Guzman and hold him for ransom if an AL team comes calling. Ask for the moon. The Padres are going to have a hard time getting FA hitters to come to Petco. Having a bat like Guzman’s under team control for six years is exactly what they need.

Chase Headley

Few players have such varying fan opinion as Headley. Some fans love him and others want him traded. I believe this is largely attributed to the fact that he has never developed the power that we all hoped he would have. Despite low power output for third basemen, Headley has quickly become one of the most valuable Padre players. I feel comfortable in referring to Headley as a three WAR player. Headley is a doubles machine, can get on base, can steal a base, and can play average defense. Headley was well on his way to another four WAR season before he was injured. I fully expect Headley to be 100% healthy to start the season and see no reason not to expect 3-4 WAR out of Headley in 2012. At 27, Headley is still an improving player and just entering his prime. At $3.475m for 2012, Headley is a relative bargain that will likely return a 5 to 1 WAR value ratio to the Padres. A player that has solid absolute WAR value as well as considerable surplus value is exactly the type of player the Padres need to retain.

Headley will have two years of team control left after 2012. He will likely earn somewhere around $5-6m in 2013 and $7-9m in 2014. Lucky for the Padres, his lack of power hurts his arbitration value. I am leaning towards the school of thought that says you keep Headley for as long as he represents a surplus value. Can we say for certain that Gyorko will be an upgrade over Headley? With Fosythe, Darnell, and Gyorko all chomping at the bit, the Padres are going to have a tough decision to make regarding Headley sometime in the next year or so. I would prefer to see the Padres wrap up Headley to a 3/$24m extension next offseason. Let Gyorko develop slowly and then play him in the OF for a year if need be. I would like to see the Padres keep a core of young affordable 3+ WAR players in house for several more years while their top prospects help fill out the roster. If an extension is not in Headley’s future, expect the Padres to demand a haul that should include at least two of a team’s top 10 prospects.

Orlando Hudson

If you consider the $2m buyout, the Padres are on the hook for $7.5m in 2012 for Hudson. Hudson does have a club option for 2013. His WAR numbers have declined each year since 2009 and it’s hard to imagine the 34-year-old will turn it around to post a WAR above 2.5 in 2012. I won’t rule it out, though, since he is in a contract year. Realistically, we can expect 1.5 to 2 WAR out of Hudson in 2012. I can’t imagine the Padres picking up his 2013 option for $8m ($6m if you consider the $2m buyout part of 2012) when there are plenty of internal options that could replace his value at a much cheaper cost. There will be internal pressure from Parrino, Forsythe, Cabrera, and Belnome by 2013. Any of the four could adequately replace Hudson’s value at a fraction of the cost. IMO, Hudson is a more likely trade candidate at this point and going into the season than is Bartlett. Hudson is easier replaced. I expect the Padres to move Hudson as quickly as possible. 2012 should be Hudson’s last year with the Padres.

Chris Denorfia

Denorifa is a fan favorite. With fans having no expectation of performance coming into 2010, it is easy to see why fans like him. He has put up over three WAR in total between 2010 and 2011. Not bad for a bench player with roughly the equivalent of one season of batting stats in 2010 and 2011 combined. What makes Denorifa even sweeter for the Padres is they only paid him $800k in 2011 and have agreed to a salary of $1.165m for 2012. Denorfia is under team control again for 2013. For 2012 we can reasonably expect 1.5-2 WAR if Denorfia receives around 350 ABs. This makes Denorfia one of the more valuable assets from a WAR value ratio standpoint. With an expected salary of $2m for 2013 and the ability to play all three outfield positions, I could see the Padres bringing Deno back again in 2013. You could make an argument for a longer term deal for Deno, but with internal options like Tekotte, Blanks, Darnell, and Jaff Decker I find it unlikely the Padres would commit long-term.

Mark Kotsay

This one is easy. Kotsay is nearing the end of his career. He was brought in for one reason, even if management won’t admit it. Kotsay was brought in to be a clubhouse presence and a leader. He won’t take too many at bats from Venable and Denorfia. Kotsay is not a player I would consider a mid-season trade candidate, unless a team in contention really wants him and Kotsay wants to go. Expect to see Kotsay in a Padres uniform for 2012 only.

Cameron Maybin

Maybin is perhaps the best overall player and talent on the current Padres roster. There is no doubt amongst the fans and pundits that Maybin belongs at the core of this Padres team as it moves forward into an exciting era over the next several years. Maybin possesses above average defense, above average speed, average hit tool, and decent pop. This combination makes him a potentially elite player should he continue to develop (he is only 24). Baseball-Reference had his WAR total at 2.9 for 2011 and FanGraphs had him at 4.7. This is quite a large difference. Given his position is one where defense is valued greatly, I am inclined to lean towards FG’s WAR total. If 2011 was no fluke good things are ahead for the Padres and Maybin. Maybin won’t be arbitration eligible until 2013. I don’t need to do the math to know what a value Maybin is and likely will be even when he reaches his final arbitration year. Make no mistake, more than any other Padre I have confidence that Maybin will be around for a long time. He is a Petco player and is young, talented, and affordable. I would like to see the Padres ink Maybin to a 4-5 year deal in the $20-$30m range next offseason. If Maybin is not still here for the 2015 season, that would mean someone like Tate realized his potential and the Padres would have made a blockbuster haul for Maybin.

Carlos Quentin

Quentin’s future with the Padres is hard to figure out. My gut says the Padres want to evaluate how his bat and glove play at Petco before deciding his future. He could be moved during the season and recoup some prospects to make up for the loss of Simon Castro and Pedro Hernandez. He could also be on the team all season if they are in contention. When healthy, Quentin has legit power and the ability to hit in the middle of the lineup. The Padres have lacked a player of his power for some time. His defensive limitations will likely limit his WAR to around 2-2.5 tops. This makes Quentin’s $7.025m salary for 2012 a slight bargain. Quentin will be a free agent after the season and I don’t envision the Padres offering him the FA tender required to get compensation should he sign elsewhere. That would likely require the Padres to risk paying him over $12m in 2013. More likely, the Padres take a wait and see attitude with Quentin. If Quentin can prove productive at Petco, the Padres might look to sign him to a 2-3 year deal with a club option. At only 29, I don’t see Quentin’s power vanishing for a few more years. If the Padres find themselves out of contention at mid-season and if Blanks is mashing at Triple-A, the Padres may want to take offers for Quentin. Let’s hope Quentin can hit at Petco and the Padres are in contention.

Will Venable

Hard to believe Venable is 29. Also hard to believe is his steady WAR value considering how streaky of a player he can be. Venable has been essentially a solid two WAR player each of the last three years. He may be one of the more underrated players in this league. Unfortunately, his inconsistency can be maddening to watch. One week he will hit .400 with 2 HR’s, 3 doubles, 2 triples and 12 RBI’s only to follow it up with two weeks of .150 and tons of strikeouts. If Venable can learn to hit lefties (I have my doubts at 29), he could become a three WAR player on a regular basis. For now, I have no problems with projecting him to continue to produce at two WAR for the next couple seasons. Venable received a $1.475m salary for his first year of arbitration eligibility heading into this season. He will remain a solid value likely even through his final year of arbitration. Venable’s long-term future could be influenced by internal pressures. Players that are ready for an outfield spot now include Tekotte, Blanks, and Darnell. Venable’s defense could keep him with the club though, even if he becomes a fourthoutfielder. I think Venable gets moved in 2013 if a solid trade offer presents itself. Tekotte should be able to replace Venable’s offense and defense at a more affordable price.

Overall, the Padres only have a few players on the current roster that I would consider as part of a long-term core. Maybin and Hundley are no brainers. Headley, Guzman, and Stauffer are up for a bit more debate. With all the major league talent sitting in the upper minors in this organization, we should see a lot of roster turnover throughout the next couple of years. The Padres will have the luxury of picking and choosing amongst a glut of young talent coming over the next couple years. Should make for some exciting trade and roster analysis.

If all baseball articles posted online followed Twitter’s hashtag format, then #prospects would be a Worldwide Trend right now.

Analysts everywhere are crafting their top lists and blowing up websites and blogs. Books are lining store shelves and arriving in mailboxes to the collective glee of their recipients. Alexander Pope’s famous phrase, “Hope springs eternal…” is becoming more and more a reality for many organizations, San Diego in particular.

So, let’s continue in this vein.

In previous FF articles, I’ve looked at some prospects you may not have heard about. Guys like Connor Powers and Matt Jackson who, with another solid season, could crack the prospect list in a deep system. For this piece, I’m going to discuss Decker, a prospect many will be familiar with. No…not Jaff Decker. That other Decker: Cody Decker.

Decker was drafted in 2009 during the 22nd round out of UCLA. Over 191 games with the Bruins, Decker batted .288 with 47 HRs, 28 2Bs, and 153 RBI. His 21 HRs during the 2009 season led the Pac-10. On the glovework side, in 653 chances at 1B, Decker made just three errors, good for a .995 FLD%.

His debut in professional ball was worth noticing. In 198 ABs with the AZL Padres (Rookie), Decker hit: .354/.421/.717 (1.138 OPS…gulp). He was subsequently called up to Ft. Wayne (Low-A) at season’s end but only managed 18 ABs. For the 2010 season, the organization opted for Decker to skip Low-A, and the move paid off. In 507 ABs at High-A Lake Elsinore, Decker hit: .270/.352/.513 (.865 OPS). He clubbed 28 homers and and knocked in 90 RBI. He also found the two-bag out of the box an impressive 35 times. Scouts and analysts alike were starting to take notice, as Decker found his way on many of the top lists.

So, why is he glaringly absent on this year’s lists? Good question.

This past season, Decker moved up to Double-A San Antonio. He only managed 177 ABs, hitting .237/.289/.525 (.815 OPS). The lack of at bats can be attributed to a devastating stay on the disabled list. Decker sustained a third degree ankle sprain while trying to beat out a grounder at first. The injury might as well have been a broken ankle, as Decker went on the DL on May 22, 2011 and wasn’t reinstated until August 23. Decker came back strong, however, including an impressive run in the playoffs where his Missions finished as Texas League Champions. In seven games, he went 9-25 (.360) with three homers and three doubles, when the games mattered most.

Obviously, missing the meat of the season, 2011 really shouldn’t count in the books as far as his status is concerned, but prospect analysis is very much a “what have you done for me lately” perspective. Myron pointed this out very astutely in the case of Simon Castro. His elite status was stripped away pretty quickly. In Decker’s case, one season of injury has unfairly (in my opinion) taken him off the radar as well.

Fangraphs’ advanced info on Decker is also worth studying. Granted, minor league data isn’t as rich as major league data, but some of the basic advanced stats work just fine. It’s the predicting major league success from minor league numbers part that gets tricky. I’m currently working on a formula that will determine major league success based on minor league numbers. However, since that’s not complete just yet, I’ll speculate on Decker here shortly.

During his Rookie season in 2009, Decker’s BB% was a nice 8.3%. His K% sat at 18.4%. But the ISO is really interesting: .364. For some context, at the MLB level, Jose Bautista’s ISO in 2010 was the league best at .357. Definitely not a one-to-one translation, but the reference gives you some idea. In Decker’s case: fantastic pop, excellent discipline, and striking out around league average. I’ll take that.

During Decker’s 2010 campaign in High-A, he increased his BB% to 10.3. Unfortunately his K% also increased, in this case to 23.2. For a quasi-context, MLB average for BB% in 2010 was 8.0% and for K% it was 20.7%. The ISO, however, remained impressive at a .243 clip. Even during his limited Double-A season, his ISO totaled .288. Granted, the BB% dropped (5.8) and the K% increased (31.1), but a right-handed power threat will always have a spot on San Diego’s shopping list.

The question is, where will he play? Another good question. Glad I asked.

The bulk of his time has been spent at 1B. Unfortunately for Decker, though, 5’11” and 220 LBS doesn’t exactly profile well for an MLB first baseman. Don’t let the size factor prohibit consideration for the position, however. He as a total of 158 games at first and has committed only 13 errors in 1,467 chances, good for an impressive .991 FLD%. Further complicating the issue for Decker, though, is the trade for Yonder Alonso. Decker is a year older and will have to watch Alonso completely fall on his face before he gets consideration. Decker’s been run out to left field and third base but only for a grand total of one game each. He saw a total of seven games in left in his college career. In college, he was primarily a DH, so from my perspective, Decker might be better served on an AL team that can see him split time between first base and DH.

I’d hate to see San Diego lose a player like Decker, but I think, for his sake, a change to an AL organization would give him two avenues to pursue a big league career because his bat projects to play at this point. If he stays in San Diego, he becomes another slugger looking for a home behind the likes of: Jesus Guzman, Kyle Blanks, Logan Forsythe, James Darnell, and Matt Clark. He’ll likely start the season back in Double-A San Antonio to show that he can still swing it. If healthy, there’s no reason he couldn’t produce: .280/.370/.560, if not even better.

What happens from there will be determined by what happens to Guzman and Alonso at the big league level and Matt Clark in Triple-A. Though, Clark can play a respectable outfield. But the way the club fell all over themselves for Alonso, he’s going to have every chance in the world to be successful. It’s a tough outlook from a San Diego roster standpoint, but baseball is always filled with opportunities.

I do believe, that big league talent finds the big leagues, and I see Decker as possessing that talent. It’s simply a matter of when and where he gets his shot.

Generally, I’m hesitant to compare prospects to established major leaguers. There are so many subtle differences in player skill-sets that, without exhaustive research, I’m never all that comfortable with the comparisons.

Yonder Alonso = Erubiel Durazo

After watching some video of Yonder Alonso, though, (notably the embedded one below from Scouting the Sally) I can’t help but think Erubiel Durazo.

At first, you might think that comparing a highly-touted first base prospect to Erubiel Durazo is my way of saying that I’m not overly high on Alonso, but that isn’t necessarily true. Upon reaching the majors at age 25, Durazo raked, and he didn’t stop until his major league career was over seven years later.

Pretty similar starts, though I certainly don’t mean to imply that I’m comparing these two players based on such a small amount of performance data. As mentioned, Alonso’s swing and movements simply remind me of Durazo, and it conveniently fits the narrative that the numbers are very similar.

Physically, they are similar too. Durazo is listed at 6’3’’, 240 on Baseball-Reference. Alonso: 6’2’’, 240. Both left-handed hitters. Durazo ended up hitting .281/.381/.487 in his major league career, split between Arizona and Oakland. Alonso has posted inferior numbers so far in his career (.292/.370/.466) – and that’s in the minor leagues.

Durazo played in Mexico prior to the majors and only spent part of one season in the minors before debuting in Arizona, so we can’t really compare minor league stats. He hit .404/.489/.703 that year in Double-A and Triple-A.

In the field, Durazo provided limited defensive value at first (he was traded to Oakland and became a DH) and he wasn’t particularly fast or athletic. The scouting reports on Alonso are similar. He’s not out there for his defense or base running.

Scouting or performance

Let’s face it, Alonso’s scouting reputation far exceeds his actual performance thus far. Based on the numbers, Clay Davenport* projects Alonso as a .260/.335/.400 hitter in his prime. That isn’t bad, especially in Petco, but it isn’t really what we are expecting out of the Padres new first basemen.

*Davenport adjusts raw minor league statistics for league, age, park effects, and various other factors to get a better estimate of the player’s major league potential.

Yonder Alonso = Adrian Gonzalez

Finishing where we started, PECOTA currently lists Adrian Gonzalez as Alonso’s number one comparable player. Number two: Jeff Clement.

Interestingly enough, there might be something to the Alonso-Gonzalez comp. Though Gonzalez was always young(er) for his league, both players put up underwhelming minor league statistics (but were highly-rated amongst scouts). Gonzalez, of course, blossomed into the player we had the pleasure of watching in San Diego for five seasons.

Then again, there is probably something to the Alonso-Clement comp, too.

As you know, there’s a large degree of uncertainty in player evaluation, especially prospects. Here’s hoping Alonso turns out more like Gonzalez than Clement. But I’ll settle for Durazo.

Justin over at Chicken Friars sort of beat me to the punch on this article, with his recent piece on infielder Vince Belnome. It’s a good read and covers the basics of who Belnome is as a player and potential prospect. I won’t regurgitate too much of his analysis here (hence, the link); however, I will explore some of his performance in a bit more detail and go so far as to say that I think Belnome will be on San Diego’s roster at some point early during the 2012 season.

Belnome is a player who hasn’t received much hype until recently. He doesn’t often appear on prospect lists, and if he does, he’s likely to be listed in the higher numbers. But fans and scouts alike are starting to take notice of the 5′ 11″ 205 pounder, and it’s likely because he’s proven he can handle himself with the lumber.

Belnome was drafted in the 28th round of the 2009 draft out of West Virginia. There’s a certain other Padres prospect who came from that same team a year later by the name of Jedd Gyorko. That’s probably a name you recognize at the top of most prospect lists, and for good reason. Gyorko was a second rounder and just completed an Arizona Fall League season where he nearly set the record for batting average.

Obviously, late-round picks are rarely given much fanfare, but ask Mike Piazza (62 round) what he thinks about draft order. (I know…he’s the exception.) Belnome is quickly becoming another example of proof that major league quality players can be found throughout all levels of the draft.

The reasons are simple: he knows what he’s doing in the box, and he’s not going to give away too many runs with his glove. Now, most teams look for elite defense up the middle. With Belnome manning second base, his defense can’t exactly be considered elite, so his prospect status takes a hit. But, let’s look at the numbers on both sides of the field and give him his due.

In three minor league seasons, Belnome has straight produced. He’s clubbed 43 HRs and knocked in an impressive 200 RBIs in 285 games. In 1,256 PAs, he’s walked 205 times and struck out 255 times. On defense, his fielding percentages break down as such (range factors per game in parenthesis):

442 CH @ 3B: .914 (2.64)

416 CH @ 2B: .976 (4.61)

177 CH @ 1B: .989 (8.75)

Now, 5’11” and 200 lbs+ sounds like a nice frame for a slugging 3B, but you can see that his glove work at the hot corner is not terribly strong. As a first baseman, though, Belnome’s defense gets better. However, his height doesn’t fit the position. At second, Belnome seems to have found somewhat of a home. The FLD% is good, and the range factor is solid as well. The struggle here, though, is with the body as well. Big-bodied second baseman don’t fit the mode unless their name is Dan Uggla (5’11”, 205 lbs). The position requires nimble footwork and quick bursts and turns of activity. Now, if you can slug like Uggla, people forget about the defense. Uggla’s second base range factor in the minors was 4.41, by the way, very similar to Belnome. So, essentially, at second, Belnome won’t give up many runs, but he also won’t save many, either. The question will be, can he slug like Uggla?

Let’s look a bit closer in that department.

Belnome’s 2009 season was an impressive introduction to pro ball. Between Eugene (A-) and Ft. Wayne (A), he compiled a gaudy slash of: .321/.444/.519 (.963 OPS). Additionally, only 32 of his 268 at bats that season were in Ft. Wayne. The organization thought highly enough of his bat that he basically skipped A ball, and was moved up to hi-A Lake Elsinore in 2010. In the hitter-friendly California League, Belnome put forth: .273/.397/.436. He knocked in a career high 84 RBIs that season to go along with 16 HRs, also a career high.

The following season saw him move up to Double-A San Antonio, notoriously pitcher-friendly. Not if you ask Belnome. In 267 at bats, he produced: .333/.432/.603. Just video game-like. He set a career best in HR with 17 in half the games of his previous season. He managed just 75 games last season due to injury, but many in San Antonio felt he was the team’s MVP, and the numbers bear that out.

Overall, Belnome’s career slash in three seasons looks like this: .301/.418/.500 (.918 OPS). In case you’re wondering, Uggla’s career minor league slash line in five seasons was: .276/.347/.442 (.789). Am I suggesting Belnome is the next Uggla? Maybe. Maybe he could be even better. Why? He’s got a considerably better eye. In low-A, Belnome’s BB% was 17.6. In hi-A, he maintained 16.8%, and in limited time in Double-A, it was 14.8%. Uggla’s overall major league BB% is 10.5%. [Granted, that’s a minor league versus major league comparison. Somebody help me find data on FanGraphs that comes before 2006!]. The power is there, too. His ISO for those same seasons: .203, .163, and .270.

Now, he does hit left-handed, and he will be playing his games in Petco National Park, but I think you’ll see Belnome manning second base sooner than any other minor league infielder gets the call up. Once he establishes that he’s healthy, and once he starts demolishing PCL parks and pitchers, I think you’ll see the big league club take notice. He’ll look even better once Orlando Hudson scuffles again, preferring to spend his down time discussing the finer points of lawn mowing on Twitter.

Keep your eye on Belnome, and see if he doesn’t open some other eyes in San Diego this coming season.

When the San Diego Padres acquired Carlos Quentin from the Chicago White Sox, they gave up a couple of pitching prospects in Simon Castro and Pedro Hernandez. We’ve already discussed the trade in general, so now let’s focus more on Castro.

Right hander Simon Castro was signed as an international free agent out of the Dominican Republic back in 2006. He was quite raw, obviously, and didn’t really burst onto the big time prospect scene until after his 2009 campaign at Single-A Fort Wayne.

Castro pitched 140 and a third innings that year, posting a 3.33 ERA, 10.1 K/9, 2.4 BB/9, and .6 HR/9. Those are some pretty solid numbers, especially for a 21-year-old who had yet to really put it all together previously. After the impressive season, Castro ranked as the 57th best prospect in baseball by Baseball America, the #2 Padres prospect by Kevin Goldstein, and the #2 Padres prospect by John Sickels.

Sickels called Castro an “excellent arm with improving command” and Goldstein said that “he will be an above-average major-league starter, with some scouts projecting him as high as a No. 2.”

in 2010, Castro jumped up to Double-A San Antonio and continued to perform. He again pitched 140 innings (10 and a third in Triple-A Portland), with a 3.28 ERA, 7.3 K/9, 2.6 BB/9, and .6 HR/9. The drop in strikeouts was a bit alarming, but overall the 6-5 right hander had a more-than-respectable year in his first taste of Double-A.

The prospectors didn’t waver. Baseball America rated him as the 58th best MLB prospect while Kevin Goldstein and John Sickels both kept him at #2 overall in the Padres system.

Last season Castro started out in Triple-A Tucson and lasted only six starts, posting an ERA over 10 and ugly peripherals. He was sent back down to Double-A San Antonio where he would regain some of his form. His ERA was 4.33, but as we mentioned in the Quentin trade analysis, his peripherals looked largely the same:

Year

Inn

K/PA

BB/PA

BABiP

FIP

2010

129.7

20.2%

6.8%

.271

3.34

2011

89.3

19.5%

4.3%

.321

3.80

One could argue pretty easily that he was actually a little better the second time around in Double-A, as his strikeout rate stayed virtually the same and his walk rate dropped quite a bit. His strikeout-to-walk ratio jumped from 2.97 in 2010 to 4.56 in 2011.

Of course, there are some legitimate reasons to be concerned with Castro’s 2011 year. For one, he struggled mightily again in Triple-A, giving him a 9.50 ERA, 1.5 HR/9, and nearly one walk for every strikeout in 36 career innings. It’s a small sample, sure, but it is ugly performance. Further, he repeated Double-A and while his peripherals were a little better, it’s not as if he dominated.

After 2011, though, would you expect him to completely drop off the prospect radar? That’s kind of what happened. Baseball America didn’t list Castro in its Padres top 10, Kevin Goldstein rated him #20 in the system, and John Sickels didn’t even rank him in his top 27.

Now, prospect lists are certainly fluid, and Castro didn’t do much to build on his 2010 campaign. Further, the Padres continued to add minor league talent from the draft and trades, helping push Castro’s freefall – not to mention, other guys establishing themselves.

Still, if you’re trying to look at the whole picture, it’s hard to believe that Castro should have fallen this far based on his ‘11 performance. If he was a top three prospect prior to 2011, there’s no way he’s a top 20-30 prospect after. That’s only my opinion, of course, and the prospect experts certainly study these guys closer than I do and have a lot of scout/front office contacts.

The general point, though, is not about prospect lists. Instead, the concern is over what Castro could still become. We’ve talked a lot recently about the Padres depth in the minor leagues. Castro was kind of a guy who embodied that depth. Formerly a highly-regarded prospect, there he was sitting way down — all but forgotten — on our organization depth chart.

Castro is gone now and while we received Carlos Quentin for him (and Hernandez), at this point it’s not clear that the acquisition was worth the potential cost.

There’s been plenty of talk this offseason about moves the San Diego Padres have made. Like them or not, Josh Byrnes has not hesitated to pull the trigger on deals that he thinks are best for the team.

What has also been discussed around the virtual watercooler are the moves Byrnes hasn’t made. The one I’m interested in the most for this piece is the acquisition (or lack thereof) of middle infield starters. After all the deals that have been done, San Diego is still without proven talent at SS or 2B.

Fans and bloggers alike were clamoring for help at these critical positions. The assumption was, since we didn’t acquire any, then such players must: #1 not be out there, or #2 must not be available. In looking at San Diego’s system, it is difficult to believe that ownership wasn’t attempting to upgrade at these positions. However, maybe they feel comfortable with any of Logan Forsythe, Everth Cabrera, Beamer Weems, Jeudy Valdez, Jonathan Galvez, or a healthy Drew Cumberland. One could argue a case for any of them, although most on that list are 1-2 years away.

I did some investigating into potential options that would be viable for San Diego to acquire. Viable was really at the crux of my research. It’s easy to dream for guys like Starlin Castro, Asdrubal Cabrera, etc, but those are pies in the sky. So, on the one hand, there are plenty of talented, young players at those crucial positions; but, not surprisingly, teams aren’t interested in parting with them (takes care of #2 above). The other side of the coin seems to indicate that available talent in that area is limited. Many names that piqued my interest were still 1-2 years away. If the wait is that long, why look outside the organization?

There was one name, though, that struck a chord (apologies): the Cleveland Indians’ Cord Phelps.

Now, if you do the research, Phelps is not an elite prospect by any means, and most scouts would probably project him to be a utility guy. To me, though, I see some opinions wavering as to his future status. Some think he might blossom if given a starting gig. I’m firmly entrenched in that camp.

First, let’s look at his career MiLB slash line over four seasons (I’m not going to consider his MLB numbers since he only has 71 at bats under his belt.):

.288/.376/.434 (.810 OPS)

Obviously, the OBP stands out. Over the past three seasons, he’s had more than 375 AB per season. In 2009 (A+), his OBP was .386. In 2010 (AA/AAA), it was .368. Finally, in 2011 (AAA), it was .376. Those percentages are consistently strong.

Now, let’s look at some advanced stats. Keep in mind, these are his MiLB numbers we’re talking about, and we know that past performance doesn’t always predict future success.

His wOBA over those seasons: .350, .383, .377. Again, average is typically around .330. Impressive, right? There’s more. His BB% over those three seasons averages out to 10.8. Anything in the double digits in BB% is considered above average. The guy has excellent plate discipline.

Additionally, his K% over those three seasons averages out to 16.2. That percentage might even be slightly elevated, since his K% in Triple-A Columbus last season was 20.5, generally six to seven percentage points higher than his typical performance. Why? Likely because he wanted to prove he had some pop, as he hit a career-best 14 homers that season, nearly double the output of his previous career-best.

Phelps’ track record also has a nice history when it comes to runs created. Here are his wRC+ numbers for those same seasons:

2009 (A+)

115

2010 (AA)

96

2010 (AAA)

141

2011 (AAA)

134

So, in High-A Kinston of the Carolina League, Phelps was 15% better than league average, and during the first half of 2010 in Double-A Akron, he was 4% worse than average. He made significant improvements in this category in Triple-A. For the last half of 2010, he was 41% higher than average and then this past season he was 34% better.

Now, there’s plenty more, but I wanted to focus on his ability to get on base and to create runs. I think we should harken to the old days where your middle infielders are the guys at the top of the lineup who set the stage and score the runs. He seems to be well-suited to the 2-hole, as he hits from both sides of the plate and scouts say his swing stays in the zone for a long time, allowing him to barrel up the ball.

Phelps is also looking for a home. He’s currently on the Indians radar as a utility player. He can play 2B, SS, and 3B. In fact, this fall, they tested him out at 3B during the Arizona Fall League. He’s blocked by a couple of prospects that are in line to inherit his positions. Lonnie Chisenhall is earmarked for third base, Cabrera has short stop locked down, and Jason Kipnis is slated to be the regular second basemen. I say we make a move to acquire Phelps and make him either our short stop or second basemen. I wouldn’t give up any major prospects for him, but I could see an MLB bench guy plus a young arm in the system. Jesus Guzman makes sense and would fit well in the AL.

Now, defensively, Phelps is not a wizard, but he’s not a butcher, either. Let’s look at his range factors for the seasons above:

RF/G

2B

SS

2009

4.72

2010

4.30

2011

4.09

4.08

Those numbers put Phelps right in line or slightly above the players currently in the system that I mentioned earlier, with the exception of Cabrera whose RF/G is generally higher. So it seems as though he’s capable with the glove and has a really nice approach at the plate. That’s why I think he’d be a good fit for the lineup.

I’d love to see him take over at shortstop, but I’m not sure he has what it takes to play the position at the major league level. Peter Friberg makes some interesting points for Weems as a potential short stop, and Valdez seems to be suited for the position defensively, so maybe Phelps could hold that fort down until the lower level guys establish themselves, then switch to second.

The San Diego Padres made an unsurprising move on Friday. They sent first baseman Anthony Rizzo and pitcher Zach Cates to the Chicago Cubs in exchange for pitcher Andrew Cashner and outfielder Kyung-Min Na. Much of the initial reaction to the trade is negative from the Padres’ perspective. Here are my thoughts (obviously).

I’m not going to get knee deep in the numbers, and I’m essentially looking at this trade for the Rizzo and Cashner pieces. Na’s track record leaves nothing to be excited about, and one season does not a prospect make as far as Cates’ status is concerned.

Geoff Young of Ducksnorts tweeted a nice piece by Jason Wojciechowski to help frustrated fans/bloggers to maintain perspective when they can’t get behind deals made by their teams. It was a nice refresher, but I’m still writing, aren’t I?

I know I don’t hold all the keys to the kingdom and am definitely “armchairing” it as I write about these things, but what Wojciechowski didn’t touch upon is the reason I write despite having little to no insider information. It’s the passion I have for my Padres. I’m not trying to turn this into a thesis on blogging, but I did think it worth mentioning that I am well aware of the knowledge I don’t possess, yet I’m compelled to opine anyway.

Okay…back on topic. The deal is done, and I’ve had some time to digest it (along with a God-awful heaping of Taco Bell that may taint my analysis). I’ve read what others think, and I’m trying to see as many angles as possible here. The conclusion I continue to reach, however, is that this has the potential to be a terrible deal for San Diego.

The thing about trades, though, is the time factor. Hence the use of the word “potential”. Only time will tell how this works out. That’s the funny thing about trades from a fan perspective. By the time a trade’s outcome can be measured, we’ve already focused on other, more pertinent issues at hand, so we don’t often stop to truly evaluate a trade at its most appropriate point. Mental note: write an article about this trade on the last day of the World Series. I think that will be the time we’ll be able to really figure out who won.

In fact, Joe Fan is probably already starting to get foggy about the Adrian Gonzalez trade to Boston. As it stands, we just shipped out the centerpiece position player of this deal in Rizzo. Patterson has already found greener pastures. With Kelly’s stock falling a bit and Fuentes not showing overwhelming numbers, it’s becoming clear that Boston got the better end of that deal.

Why does this matter? Because San Diego’s organization has little to no room for error. It’s imperative for both amateur and professional writers to hold the Padres organization accountable by critiquing trades. Baseball is an odd business because the bottom line for clubs is money; however, the way they make money is ultimately traced back and through its fan base. Therefore, is the team in it for its own bottom line or to appease its fan base? Or is one a product of the other? That being said, can we assume a team has its fans’ best interests at heart? How can you even measure that? I’m not sure of any of the answers to those questions.

My apologies. I feel like I keep going off on philosophical tangents, but I can’t help it. I know I should just toss this toga into the hamper and get back to the trade itself. I suppose it’s a way for me to rationalize the emotional…which may be an effort in futility.

Okay…I promise this time. Back to the trade analysis we go.

I’m going to Nostradamasize here and call this one a dud and will even go so far as to say that it will trump Josh Byrnes’ previous stinker: trading Carlos Quentin to the White Sox. In the future, he’ll be known for trading away Joey Votto 2.0 for a reliever who showed flashes of brilliance but would wind up taking the Aaron Poreda path of all stuff, no location. Then, to top it off, Cashner will get seriously injured and miss significant time. Meanwhile, Rizzo will win the starting gig coming out of Spring Training and will put up the following slash line: .275/.340/.480.

Gulp…that’s a hefty prediction on my part. Now that it’s on the screen, it looks pretty extreme. This would certainly be a worst case scenario for San Diego. While it may be bold, though, it’s not “off the map” bold. This could happen.

Now, this could also happen. Rizzo scuffles as he adjusts to MLB pitching, and finishes out with a line of: .220/.320/.440. He strikes out too much, and doesn’t exhibit the power stroke of a Votto. Meanwhile, Cashner is 100% healthy and remains so, thanks to San Diego’s top-notch training staff. He locks down the 8th inning role, which lifts some of the tremendous pressure on the young, talented bullpen arms. Huston Street is later moved at the deadline for a nice prospect or two, and Cashner, with Black and Balsley’s help, becomes a dominant closer with a propensity for the occasional flameout (as closers do). This scenario is also not “off the map,” but it is extreme in favor of San Diego.

So, that leaves us with the question: which is more likely? Your guess is as good as mine because neither guy is proven. I suppose that’s why it’s been so difficult to keep this article on topic.

Ultimately, my bottom line says that Chicago will benefit from this more than San Diego will. The reason being, we are in a more desperate need of position players with pop, not pitching (I know…you can never have too much pitching). To me, Brynes is looking like he’ll be featured on an upcoming episode of Extreme Couponing. The cameras will follow him as he proudly opens a pantry in the back of the clubhouse that has 50 different bullpen guys in numerical order, sitting on the shelf.

On one hand, you have to watch in awe. But on the other, you’re thinking: at what point is this just plain crazy?

For my first piece at Friar Forecast, I took a look at a position player (Connor Powers) in the Padres minor league system that you won’t see on any prospect lists but has a chance to open some eyes. For this time around, I’ll focus on a pitcher: Matt Jackson.

Jackson was drafted at the age of 21 by the Padres in the 31st round of the 2009 draft out of the University of South Alabama. He was a letterman in both football and baseball at Haughton High School in Louisiana. Jackson initially attended LSU, and, as a freshman during the 2007 season, he pitched 32.0 innings, walked eight, and struck out 20. His final record at LSU was 0-0 with a 4.50 ERA.

Jackson subsequently transferred to Chipola JC (Florida) and was dominant, going 10-0 with a 2.61 ERA. Over 72.1 innings, he walked 14 and struck out 55. Following that season, he transferred to USA where he finished 5-4 with a 5.33 ERA. At South Alabama, he pitched 74.1 innings, allowing 81 hits while walking 27. Jackson struck out 64 batters for a K/9 of 7.75. Overall, his WHIP that season was 1.45.

Those college numbers don’t necessarily jump off the page, but the Padres saw some things they liked in the 6’4″ 190 pounder’s arsenal.

In his first season of professional baseball in 2009, Jackson finished at short season Eugene with a record of 3-7 and a 4.97 ERA. He pitched 58.0 innings, resulting in a WHIP of 1.31 to go along with a 6.8 K/9. In 2010, Jackson split time between Eugene and Low-A Fort Wayne. All totaled that season, he went 4-3 with a 4.98 ERA, a 1.375 WHIP, and a 5.8 K/9.

Thus far, the numbers Jackson put up were very solid but not eye-popping, especially for a 22-year old pitching in a pitcher-friendly league. However, 2011 saw a different Jackson altogether.

In his second stint at Ft. Wayne, Jackson found his niche. Despite being 23 and repeating the level, his numbers bear notice. He finished with a 5-1 record that included a 1.95 ERA in 64.2 IP. You read that correctly: a 1.95 ERA. It gets better. Over those 64 some innings, he allowed 49 hits, walked 12, and struck out 68. Yep…68. That resulted in an impressive K/9 of 9.5. Equally impressive was his WHIP of 0.943. Minuscule is a word that comes to mind.

Let’s look at a tale of two seasons here (data courtesy of Fangraphs.com):

IP

K%

K/9

BB%

BB/9

HR/9

BABIP

WHIP

2010

50.0

14.9

5.94

5.4

2.16

0.54

0.331

1.42

2011

64.2

26.5

9.46

4.7

1.67

0.14

0.279

0.94

Granted, Jackson spent several weeks of the 2011 season on the DL, so it’s likely his numbers would have been slightly less stellar. Regardless of age, injury, and experience, though, that’s a pretty dramatic improvement. Those 2011 numbers show absolute dominance.

The real question, of course, is will he be able to maintain this dominance? He’ll likely be moving up to Hi-A Lake Elsinore, and it is notorious for being a hitter-friendly league. Laws of probability would say that he won’t maintain the level he attained this past season, yet to see such a significant change in his performance, it is obvious Jackson has made some adjustments that will work for him in 2012, and I expect to see him performing in the same neighborhood as he did this past season.

If he can maintain at or near an 8.0 K/9 and a WHIP around 1.10, you’ll see him move quickly on up through the system. He’s got the frame, so if he can fill out some more without sacrificing any of his stuff, Jackson could at best be a mid-to-back of the rotation starter, and at worst, he could be a long reliever. He relies on a fastball, sinker, curve, slider, and circle change–a wide array of options, which can create havoc for opposing hitters.

2012 will be a pivotal season for Jackson. Another strong run of stats like he put up in 2011 will quickly earn him a place on the prospect lists which, given the status of San Diego’s system, is really saying something.

Since replacing injured pitcher Chris Young in the starting rotation, Wade LeBlanc has been lights out for the San Diego Padres. In 23 innings he has a 1.16 ERA, a 2.15 FIP, and a 3.61 xFIP. LeBlanc is unlikely to sustain such excellence for the entire season, but based on his performance thus far, there is no reason to think he cannot be a league average pitcher going forward.

LeBlanc’s best pitch is his change-up. He throws it 25 percent of the time, and according to Fangraphs, it has been 5.73 runs above average per 100 pitches so far in 2010. LeBlanc throws his change-up at 77 mph, 10 mph slower than his fastball.

Because his change-up is so solid, I wanted to see how it compared to some of the major league’s best change-ups according to pitch f/x.

I sorted by the 2009 leaders in change-up runs above average (total, not per-100), and selected the top three lefties for comparison. The players with the best lefty change-ups in 2009 were: CC Sabathia, Cole Hamels, and Mark Buehrle.

The following table notes how often each pitcher threw his change-up, as well as some speed statistics:

Pitcher

% Change

Fast Vel.

Change Vel.

Diff.

Wade LeBlanc

25%

87 mph

77 mph

10 mph

CC Sabathia

20%

93 mph

80 mph

13 mph

Cole Hamels

24%

90 mph

81 mph

9 mph

Mark Buehrle

25%

85 mph

79 mph

6 mph

The speed difference between LeBlanc’s fastball and change-up is a bit less than Sabathia, but compares favorably with Hamels and Buehrle.

This table highlights each pitcher’s horizontal and vertical movement on his change-up;

Pitcher

Horizontal Movement

Vertical Movement

Wade LeBlanc

7.8

6.8

CC Sabathia

8.6

7.5

Cole Hamels

7.8

7.4

Mark Buehrle

7.0

3.6

Sabathia gets the most horizontal movement on his change-up, but it stays up a bit more than the others’. Buehrle’s change-up has by far the most sink. The movement on LeBlanc’s change-up is pretty similar to Hamels’.

Finally, lets take a look at the pitch flight charts. The charts were created using data from Brooks Baseball, and are pitch flights for each pitcher’s most recent start:

There are slight differences between each of the pitcher’s change-ups, but frankly, they are pretty similar. For LeBlanc, this is a good thing. His change-up is pretty comparable from a “stuff” perspective to Sabathia, Hamels, and Buehrle, three of the top change-up pitchers in baseball. LeBlanc is unlikely to ever be as good as those three because there is a lot more to pitching than just having a good change-up, but it is certainly a start.