Will the abolition of visas for Ukrainian migration behavior?

Will the abolition of visas for Ukrainian migration behavior?

After years of negotiations, the work on improving migration management and border management getting Ukraine visa-free regime with the EU becomes a real prospect. It is likely that in the summer of 2017 Ukrainian will be able to travel freely to EU countries. In this regard, intensified the debate about the impact of migration on the visa-free behavior of the population. Is it freedom of movement Europe mean mass exodus? Is it another cover Europe, now Ukrainian migration "wave"? Try to answer these questions by analyzing the current migration situation and experience of countries that were previously free regime.

First of all it should be noted that the direct link between migration and visa regime there. It refers only to visas for short visits. Migration caused by other factors, primarily economic and social. Significant influence with political circumstances, the level of public and personal safety. It should also consider the traditions of migratory movements, social connections, formed as a result of migration of the past.

In particular, according to data on border crossings by citizens of Ukraine towards the exit, Ukrainian international mobility continued to grow despite the introduction of visas by neighboring European countries joining the Schengen area of ??(2007). At the same time, the number of trips to Russia, although it also maintained a visa-free regime declined both absolutely and relatively. Thus, the number of border crossings with Poland for the first time exceeded the number of border crossings with Russia already in 2013 (7.2 million vs. 6.2 million), ie, before the war. Further reorientation of Ukrainian cross-border travel to the western direction only increased. In 2015, on the western border were registered 9.5 million visits, and on the border with Russia - 4.2 million.

However, the visa regime affects the terms of entry. The abolition of visas will definitely improve travel conditions, which, under certain circumstances, may be a prerequisite for migration. According to opinion polls, although freedom of movement Ukrainian seeing major benefits of EU membership (39%), they are concerned about a possible increase in immigration, which is considered as the main negative consequence of European integration (33%). The possibility of Ukrainian mass influx, especially in the current wave of migration in Europe, as Europeans are concerned, and is not the main reason for delaying the process of the abolition of visas. Some pravoradykaly in Europe even offered to build a wall on the border with Ukraine.

Scientists, however, do not support these fears. Thus, calculated on the basis of sociological measuring potential emigration and migration towards Ukrainian Schengen area visa waiver provided is 1.5% of the population, or half a million people. Based on an econometric model to increase the number of migrants during the first year after the introduction of free movement of the population was estimated at 200-300 thousand. People.

Only a modest increase in migration in terms of visa cancellation is confirmed by the experience of other countries. For example, according to Eurostat, the number of citizens of Albania and Bosnia and Herzegovina, which received visa-free regime in 2010, and Moldova, who are free to travel Europe in 2014, living in the EU, after the abolition of visas not only increased, and somewhat reduced. After all, free to travel reduces the need for long stay in the EU.

Here are some arguments in favor of the conclusion that the slight increase in cross-border mobility in the Ukrainian case of cancellation of visas.

First, in the process of visa liberalization and in accordance with agreements with the EU visa procedures for Ukrainian gradually simplified, the number of Schengen visas issued to citizens of Ukraine grew and received their failures - decreased. It is also important that a third of Schengen visas issued Ukrainian free. If in 2010 the Ukrainian received 1.28 million Schengen visas, in 2013 - already 1.56 million. At 38.6% of these were multiple visas. In 2014, multiple-entry visas were issued 52.4% and in 2015 - 56.8%. Related to this is a certain decrease in the number of issued Schengen visas in 2014-2015, respectively (Fig. 1). However, the number of national visas, issued a number of European countries, including Poland, continued to grow. Consulate of Poland in 2015 issued 922 thousand Ukrainian. Visas to 828 thousand. In 2014, in t. Ch. 466 085 466 155 Schengen and national.

Second, the fact that the Ukrainian conducive to travel to European countries, the visa privileges enjoyed by citizens of Ukraine belonging to national minorities Central European nations. For example, "Polish Card", confirming belonging to the Polish people since its introduction in 2008 and the end of 2014 were 57.5 thousand. Citizens of Ukraine. This document provides free registration of Polish visa that allows you to repeatedly enter and stay in Poland for a year and travel to other Schengen countries for up to 90 days. Tangible benefits visa holders are also documents confirming the status of "foreign Hungarian", "foreign Slovaks", "Czech foreign." Thirdly, quite a few Ukrainian can travel to neighboring EU countries without any visa. This multi-million residents of the western frontier, living in the border zone and have the right to delve into neighboring states over a distance of 50 kilometers under a so-called "local border traffic". They were signed with Hungary in 2007, Poland and Slovakia in 2008, Romania - in 2014. According to a survey of cross-border passengers, conducted by the Polish statistical services, 64.3% Ukrainian, who crossed the Polish border, living in the 30-kilometer border zone. At a distance of 30-50 km from the border inhabited by 10.7% of international passengers, 50-100 km - 15.1%, and only 9.9% - a distance of over 100 km from the border.

Thus, most people who cross the western border of the country, are residents of western regions. However, here, according to opinion polls, the overwhelming majority (80%) is interested in visa-free. Instead, in the east of Ukraine and the Donbas is dominated by those who do not consider canceling the visa regime with the EU something significant (55-56%). Ready to use it and go to the Schengen countries declared only 18% of residents of Donbas, while the western regions - 55%. In other words, are set to benefit primarily citizens visa-free regime in Western Ukraine, which until now had more opportunities to travel to the EU. The liberalization of the visa regime for many of them not fundamentally change the conditions of crossing the border and thus does not lead to a large increase in the number of travelers.

To find out how the abolition of the visa regime could affect cross-border mobility Ukrainian, it is important to consider what purpose citizens traveling abroad. One of population surveys conducted in previous years, showed that mostly visiting relatives in second place - tourism, and the third - work abroad. That the majority of trips were made by private recreational and tourism purposes. This channeling their relevant today. Opinion polls clearly show that residents of any region of the country would go to Schengen states primarily for tourism - 51%.

For people previously closed country overseas trip is not only an expression of a desire to see the world, but also the prestige factor. According to the State Statistics Service, outbound tourism from the Ukraine in the pre-crisis period developed extremely rapidly. If in the early 2000s Ukrainian carried only about 300 thousand. Tourist trips abroad per year, in 2013 - 2.5 million. The need visa is not restrained dynamics of tourist trips. After all, their main condition - the presence of a sufficient population to holiday abroad funds. Experts estimate that in 2011 travel and recreational travel abroad Ukrainian spent 3.8 billion US dollars in 2012 - 4.5 billion, and in 2013 these costs totaled $ 6 billion.

But now the situation has changed. Number Ukrainian who could afford foreign tourism in 2014 decreased by 20% and in 2015 - twice. The greatest reduction in the number of tourist visits to the Schengen area, including Italy, Spain and Greece. According to sociologists, 65% of people who have never visited Europe, were unable to travel due to lack of funds. So if the majority of visa-free travel of citizens who are willing to visit European countries for tourism purposes, is unlikely to have the financial capacity to realize that desire.

However, the difficult economic situation and poverty, hampering tourist trips abroad, creating powerful factors pushing in the Ukrainian labor migration. Moreover, the public has gained a respectable experience of working abroad abroad.

Under the influence of the military conflict and a deep economic crisis, emigration mood of the population increased. In particular, the survey conducted by GFK-Ukraine commissioned by the International Organization for Migration in the spring of 2015 showed that 8% of the Ukrainian plan to soon find a job abroad or have already found it. According to a similar survey in 2011, the figure was 6%.

Growth in labor migration from Ukraine confirmed statistics of destination countries. Thus, in 2014 in Poland was recorded 373 thousand. Applications from employers to work for the Ukrainian on a simplified system for up to 6 months 155 thousand. More than the previous year. In 2015, these applications were already 706 thousand. This shows not only the intensification of migration, but also the fact that, as before, the dominant model of Ukrainian migration behavior are temporary circular travel abroad to work.

It is through labor migration Ukrainian population residing in the EU grew steadily and in 2015 reached nearly one million. Year by year the number increased also permits to stay, was arranged that the citizens of Ukraine: in 2015 these documents were issued almost half (Fig. 2).

Increased migration is accompanied by some reorientation of flows from traditional eastern directly to, on the west. This trend was observed before. Annexation of Crimea, the fighting in the east, the general hostile attitude to Ukraine from the neighboring state accelerated reorientation of migration flows. In favor of traveling to the west is also reflected higher than the level of earnings in the EU, better living and working conditions. According to the already mentioned GFK-Ukraine poll commissioned by IOM to potential migrant workers from Ukraine, the share of those seeking employment in Russia fell from 18% in 2011 to 12% in 2015. Water while the attractiveness of Poland increased from 7% in 2006, when it was first performed a similar study, up to 30% today.

However, for certain categories of citizens, especially residents of border areas to the east and south of the country, no visa, language barriers, family and other ties with the citizens of the Russian Federation, geographical proximity and relatively cheap transport links are good reasons for directing migrant travel to this country. As the population of the occupied territories, the choice, he could not. Therefore, although the reorientation of migration flows to the event happens, there is not all over Ukraine and does not cover all workers. Russia remains an important destination of migrant workers from Ukraine. In the near future, this situation is unlikely to undergo major changes. According to a recent study "Migration as a factor of development in Ukraine", organized by IOM, the majority of potential migrants, in the case of short trips for the purpose of earning plan to leave it to. For potential long-term migrants (for over a year), Russia is the second largest destination after Poland.

Thus, much of the migration flow, as before, be directed to. The forecast because of economic problems intensify migration only partially felt western neighbors Ukraine. Also refers to labor that demanded in the labor markets of European countries, including Central, from the accession to the European Union experienced large outflows workforce.

If the arrival of workers needed for the economy performing unattractive for local people work and students are advantageous for destination countries, the possible influx of refugees from Ukraine of serious concerns, especially given the challenges faced in Europe due to millions of job seekers seekers from the Middle East. Similar sentiments are understandable especially because the recent abolition of visas for Western Balkans and Moldova actually led to an increase in applications for asylum from their citizens. Thus, in 2015, compared to the visa-free times, Albanians busy for asylum in the EU were almost 35 times more Bosnians - five times more Moldovans - three times. It has simplified visa liberalization and zdeshevila travel to the EU, and therefore - expanded capabilities for applications for asylum. Submit a request could people who likely would get rejection when applying for visas.

However, the facts that would confirm the likelihood of a mass influx of refugees from Ukraine, currently available, although after the annexation of the Crimea and the conflict in Donbas number of asylum seekers from Ukraine in Europe actually increased. If the 2013 in 28 EU countries Ukrainian citizens were submitted 835 applications for asylum, in 2015 - 20 830. The highest in Italy (4680), Germany (4570), Spain (3340), France (1625) and Poland (1575) . Ukrainian, however, is less than 2% of foreigners who applied for asylum in the European Union. In 2015, only 2,775 were granted motions, or 13% of the cast. The most positive decisions made in Italy (1635) and France (420). In Germany, the shelter provided by 55 persons in Poland - ten in Spain - no.

Experts note that, unlike those from other countries, asylum seekers from Ukraine in the EU are legally quite a long time, often with work permits. That comes to less arrivals from the conflict zone in eastern Ukraine. Most asylum seekers - is migrant workers who, because of the situation at home, do not want to turn.

A small number of asylum seekers from Ukraine in Europe primarily due to the fact that fugitives from the conflict zone were looking for a safe place of residence in Ukraine. A large group of asylum seekers from Ukraine went to Russia. According to the Federal Migration Service of Russia since the beginning of 2014 moved in and left her more than a million Ukrainian territory. At the end of 2015 there were 273 registered citizen of Ukraine, who was granted refugee status and 311 thousand. People who used the temporary shelter.

Moving people from the conflict zone to the Russian Federation due to geographical proximity, kinship, linguistic and cultural characteristics of the inhabitants of the great eastern Ukraine, the spread of some of them pro-Russian orientation. The introduction of visa-free travel of citizens of Ukraine to the EU is unlikely to change the situation and force the refugees to shift from Russia to the European direction. However, it is possible that the number of asylum seekers in Europe if possible visa-free travel may grow at the expense of internally displaced persons who are currently not receiving enough support from the state and are rather difficult situation. However likely that, given the restrictive policies of European countries for refugees in t. H. Of Ukraine, very low level of their status among this population rekrutuvatymutsya rather than asylum seekers, many migrant workers who try to solve the problem their families through employment abroad.

Given the EU immigration policy aimed at strict selection of migrant workers, the natural assumption is increasing Ukrainian illegal employment in Europe. Ukrainian violation of rules of stay in destination countries usually associated with the work without issuing employment permits and proper, exaggerated periods of stay. A study conducted by the International Organization for Migration 2015, found that no work of labor relations survey covered 41% of workers. That is the economic crisis in the country forcing people to go to work abroad, ignoring their legal status, what the associated risks over-exploitation and rights violations, up to the trafficking, and of course, punishment and deportation.

According to Eurostat, the number of citizens of Ukraine who were illegally in EU member states and were found by the competent authorities, indeed increased from 12 thousand. In 2013 to almost 24 thousand. In 2015, ie twice. Despite the negative trend, the number of violent Ukrainian small and quite insignificant compared with the number of law-abiding citizens traveling to the EU in 2014 European border guards recorded 10.5 million entries Ukrainian, and in 2015 - 12 million.

If we look at the data on the countries that received visa-free regime before, the correlation between the ability to travel freely and largest violators of immigration laws can not be traced. Moreover, data on Albania indicate that the visa-free regime, which the country received in 2010, led to a sharp reduction in the number identified in the EU-Albanian illegal immigrants.

In sum, it is necessary to reiterate that no visa, and socio-economic and military-political situation in Ukraine is critical to migratory behavior of the population. Cross-border mobility in the west Ukrainian steadily increasing despite the visa restrictions, while Russia is declining, although visa-free travel is stored. If you cancel visa travel conditions in Europe improved, but due to the rapid decline of incomes use it for the purpose of tourism or recreational travel could only a limited number of people. Instead, the economic crisis is growing, labor migration abroad. As the nearly twenty years Ukrainian "of working abroad" in Europe, its intensity reflects the situation in the country and is not related to the issue of visas.