Today the Republican party control the Senate, the House of Representatives and the presidency. In November the Democratic party has the chance of winning back the House and the current price for that on BF is 2.0. A month or so ago it was as low as 1.48, and went above 2.1 last week.

The Democrats in the House currently have 194 seats and will need to hold all their current seats and win 24 of the seats currently held by the republicans.

I think the Democrats will take back control of the House – and here's why.

1 – History – It's an indisputable fact that for most new presidents in the modern era lose party seats in their first midterm. The two exceptions were The G W Bush (after 9/11 and the early years of the Iraq war), Clinton's Second term when there were moves to begin impeachment proceedings (Democrats take note). -https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Party_divisions_of_United_States_Congresses

2 – Even though Trumps approval ratings have improved from the mid 30% to low 40% he is still well below what is needed to keep the House – and he doesn't have Hillary to help him this time.

3 – Anger wins races in the midterms which is why the losing party from the general usually do well, and there is plenty of that within the resist movement. Poll also show that the Dems are energised more than Republicans (GOP) – it may be self identifying, but wins in Alabama and Pennsylvania special elections support this view.

5 – Trump failed to repeal the ACA (Obamacare), but he's attacked it via the back door by repealing the “mandate penalty” which means young healthy people won't need to buy health insurance – and many won't, which will make it more expensive for everyone else. Some states (mainly democratic) are implementing their own mandate penalty which may help, and poorer people who receive a tax credit will be shielded from the increase, but many will have increased premiums to pay and these will be known before the November election.

6 – Trump has galvanised grass root movements. Many are focused on getting volunteers involved in canvassing to support a “get the vote out” plan on election day. An interesting one is the “Swing Left” progressive group. It was started in January 2017 and has already raised 4 million to support democratic congressional candidates in swing districts. But it also has an app, where you enter your postcode and it gives you your nearest GOP controlled swing district where you can volunteer to help. The app currently has 400,000 members, which even if a fraction of them volunteer could have a major effect. It's currently targetting 78 congressional districts in 29 states -https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mYHjYSXz-30

7 – Women are getting active. More women are running as candidates than ever before. So far there are 153 women who have won their primaries (119 dems, 34 GOPs) with 158 women still to have primaries (112 dems 46 GOPs). In polls women more then men show elevated levels on engagement and are more excited about voting (in the DEMS favour) in the midterms.

8 - Trumps trade wars aren't going to help, especially since other nation who are putting in their own retaliatory tariffs are targeting products in states which supported Trump in 2016.

I recently came across a web site which since it reflects my views on the likely outcome of the mid-terms - I rather like - http://wasoncenter.cnu.edu/ – expect 42 seats to flip to the Dems giving them easy control of the House

Her position is that we've moved to a highly polarised partisan electorate and it's not independents flipping between parties which win elections, but the efficiency of getting your base out to vote which will primarily be about enthusiasm which is derived from anger at the sitting president.

Using her model for last year Virginia governor election she predicted a win for Democrat Ralph Northam by 6% (other had it as a tight race), he won by 9% and also predicted 6 to 7 house seats would flip to democrats - 15 actually flipped, so her predictions were on the conservative side.

It not conclusive, but a CNN model has also moved significantly towards the democrats taking the house since the turn of the year, and her model may just be ahead of the curve, and as polls move to likely voters rather than registered voters the generic Democratic leans may again move towards double figures.

Last night there was a primary in Tennessee where the republicans significantly drew more votes in their primary than the democrats which on the face of it could be worrying, but there are no US house seats in that state which are expected to be in play, although it could be a bad omen in the senate race where incidentally the above model has as “lean-R”, although paradoxically polls have it a quite a close race.

Although in last nights primary the republicans increased their turnout over the 2014 primaries by 15%, the democrats increased their primary turnout by 51%.

A tweet by data analyst John Couvillon‏“OVERALL 2018 PRIMARY TURNOUT (with 97% of Tennessee in): 21 states that have voted had contested Dem, Rep primaries in 2018 and 2014. In those states in 2014, 16.2M primary voters (58% Rep). So far this year, 23.2M primary votes (47% Rep). Dem turnout up 78%, Rep turnout up 18%.”

After last Tuesday's primaries the price of the Democratic majority in the House dropped to 1.7, but then eased back to 1.79. The reason for this drift could well be due to a tightening in the generic ballot which has seen the democratic lead drop from a double digit lead late last year to just 3.9 with a recent poll giving a tie as well as democratic leads of +4 +4 +2 and +3.

Could this be the much vaunted bounce by Trump leading to the GOP holding the house. Possibly, but it could also be a mid summer blip which will soon pass. There was a similar blip back in May when 4 consecutive polls gave the Dems a lead of +1 +2 +3 and +4.

I still prefer to look at actual results from special elections and state elections which have shown a significant move from the GOP to the Dems, as well as the increase in turnout in democratic primaries which far exceed the increased turnout in GOP primaries.

As the generic ballot switches from registered voters to likely voters I would again expect the Democrats to solidify their lead.

There are primaries in 5 states tonight which will add to the data points

A little over a week after my last post the Generic Ballot poll and bounced back. In my last post I wrote that there had been a tightening in the generic ballot which has seen the democratic lead drop from a double digit lead late last year to just 3.9 with a recent poll giving a tie as well as a democratic leads of +4 +4 +2 and +3. In the last week there have been 5 further polls giving a democratic leads of +4 +7 +9 +9 +11.

These are still mainly registered voters and as I mentioned earlier it will be interesting to see how the polls move when likely voters are canvased