Our weekly Friday Fantasy Baseball Feature, Buy Low/Sell High is back after an offseason layoff. When asked what this fantasy baseball feature did during the offseason, it said this, “My family and I got together with the Fantasy Baseball Keeper posts’ family and we rented a Cruise America RV. Spent most of our days touring ice fishing spots in Montana and our nights were spent swapping wives.” Alrighty then! To get everyone on the same page, I like the Buy guys. I dislike the Sell guys. Now I’m not saying to actually sell all the guys in the Sell section or to drop them. Lots of times I’m simply saying to expect their current positive vibe to turn negative. Also, if Alcides Escobar is in the Buy section (which he is!) and Berkman is in the Sell section (there too!) that doesn’t mean I recommend you trade Berkman for Escobar. Everything’s relative, Einstein. Anyway, here’s some guys to buy and sell for the 1st week of the fantasy baseball season (start the games already!):

BUY

Alcides Escobar – He stole 16 bases in 45 games this winter down in Venezuela. (Ugueth Urbina did the same, but it was with a firearm.) Brewers should bat Escobar 2nd in front of Braun and Fielder. 100+ Runs, 40 steals and a middling average aren’t out of the question.

Francisco Liriano – Liriano Dutch Oven’d your team last year. You couldn’t even look at the pitching stats some days because of the stench he left. Guess what, loyal Razzball reader? That was last year. Liriano looked tremendous in Winter Ball. Continued that in Spring Training. More –>Liriano sleeper.

Mat Latos – You ever just find yourself whistling for no apparent reason and you’re like, “Man, I’m off meth and I’m happy. Go figure.” That’s how I feel with Latos. He makes me emoticon in my pants.

Cameron Maybin – Maybe he was too hyped last year and now people are sticking their toes in the water before jumping. It’s cool and all, but I’m a certified lifeguard. Jump, I’ll save you if you need it.

Colby Rasmus – Yes, this is the part of the program where I point out guys that you swore were ready for the majors last year then disappointed. Remember that when you’re going crazy trying to get Jason Heyward this year.

Travis Snider – Okay, done with last year’s failed crop of overhyped prospects that will make good this year… Well, there is Matt LaPorta. Eh, I’ll save him for next week.

Shaun Marcum – The matchups won’t always be pretty and he hasn’t pitched in the majors since 2008. This is a tentative buy because I imagine he’s going to give you a a bit of an up and down roller coastery season. You can mark him (hehe… what?) down for a low 4 ERA and around 7 Ks per 9 innings.

Felipe Paulino – I admittedly flipped a coin between Paulino and Bud Norris. Went with Paulino because he’s just slightly more mature. They are pretty similar guys. High strikeouts, high walks. I’d grab him in NL-Only leagues and wait and see in mixed leagues. Glass is half empty, he’s a righty Manny Parra. Glass is half full, he’s a righty de la Rosa.

Dexter Fowler – I’ve watched draft after draft where Fowler’s virtually ignored. For shame. He’ll give you Runs, Steals, a decent average and close to 10 homers. He’s Feign Victorino.

Franklin Morales – What, you don’t like saves? You’re crazy. Huston Street just got injured again opening the newspaper to read about how he got injured last time. Morales will be the closer for at least a month. Then when Street is actually healthy, the Rockies will bring him back slowly (meaning: he’ll only pitch in non-save chances) then he’ll regain the role. Could be mid-May by then and Morales could have 12 saves.

Danys Baez – You can look an 1/8 of an inch above or you can skip that and just move 1/4 of an inch above.

Jeff Clement – A catcher with every day at-bats. Awesome! Clement’s never shown himself to be a decent major leaguer. Less awesome! You punt catcher and there’s nothing else out there. Adequate!

Ian Desmond – Just writing his name makes my heart flutter. I feel like Gérard Depardieu on the back of a moped.

SELL

Fausto Carmona – Obviously there was some kind of Faustian bargain made for his sudden reemergence. That’s nice, Carmona sold his soul to pitch well in Spring Training. Doesn’t he know Spring Training stats don’t count? Dur. This isn’t a sell as much as a don’t bother. There’s so many pitchers out there, why are you risking this shizz on flippin’ Carmona? Let’s drop a pine tree from your rearview mirror and do a refresher course. His most successful year came in 2007 when he had a 3.06 ERA. That ERA should’ve been near 4 and he had 137 Ks in 215 innings. Your drunk aunt that thinks you’re the mailman can get that many Ks in 215 innings. Carmona is the new blech.

Jason Heyward – Sure, he’s mollywhopping with his pony sticks right now, but he’s like twelve years old. Think about how long you waited for Justin Upton to show his tremendous promise.

John Maine – He seems like a good enough guy. But right now he doesn’t look right. I wouldn’t go near him with your team.

Lance Berkman – You don’t drop him, you don’t even trade him for ten cents on the dollar, you maybe trade him for ninety cents on the dollar. Or you wait until everyone’s like, “Ooh, Berkman’s healthy again. Jump up, jump up and get down!” Then you trade him.

Who do you like better? Alcides or or Desmond? Both look like they will bat 2nd. Desmond will probably have a little more pop and a little less speed. And I think batting in front of Braun/Fielder vs. Zimmerman/Dunn is a wash.

Great post! Nice to see that I already have three of your “buy” guys on my roster (thanks, rounds 23-25!)

I’m not thrilled about Franklin Morales, though, and Madson and Baez are both available on waivers in my league. Morales has the more definite hold on the position for now, but he’s also got a much stronger hold on being a crappy pitcher. Is it worth dropping Franklin for Madson?

The highlight of the Grapefruit League game i watched last weekend was Gabby Sanchez taking Felipe Paulino deep. Chicks dig the long-ball and all, but I was at the game with a bunch of dudes. We had third row seats right behind the catcher.

So after the jack I stand up, face the crowd behind me and yell “SCHMOOOO-HAWKS!!!”

Most everyone ignored me except an 8-year old whose “Meh, sit down ya bum!” would have made his Jewish grandfather proud.

@Baron Von Vulturewins: First and foremost I thoroughly respect your knowledge. Glad to see you in full force (after a winter layoff).

RE: reasons to trade pre-season:

Much has changed in the ONE week since I drafted. New closer roles, injured players, some significant; managers have made FA pickups. I use Grey’s projections via the War Room to evaluate my projections and standing in the league. I enter FA changes as they occur. Needless to say there is much fluidity. Rather than trying to “take advantage” of other players, I look for a win-win situation. I have found a couple where each of us “wins” by moving up compared to the rest of the league.

Unfortunately, I can see that others share your perspective and are hesitant to pull the trigger (both trade offers were rejected). I like my team also, so not a problem for me to be content working the FA list.

Just wanted to share that there are reasons to consider a pre-season trade.

I seem to be the only person who believes in Feldman. I know wins are unpredictable, but I don’t buy a regression regardless. And you gotta love a guy whose top pitch is a cutter. What are your thoughts on him for this year?

Second, Sizemore for Lind? Who wins if my team is power heavy, decent steals, and below average…. average

@Baron Von Vulturewins: BTW, I saw your idea for an autodraft league. Love the idea. I had an idea with a poison pill rule. Everyone drafts one player for another team and the other team has to keep that player active all year.

@Grey: Just repeating myself from the other day. Checking in on Latos v Kennedy. Still tomahto-tomato? It’s for like the eighth or ninth pitcher spot in my 14 team h2h league so not a make or break choice…

@Grey: Just been offered AGon and Carpenter for Pujols. What do you think? I’m so in love with Albert, that it’d be hard to part with him but that seems like a good deal – especially if/when AGon’s dealt.

@JoeC: Yeah, that’s my theory too. I mean, Reimold’s problem is that he’s “not 100%” but Pie’s problem is that he’s “not very good at baseball.”

@Grey: Do you foresee more out of Latos than you originally projected? His K/9 was unreal in the minors, but he never played above AA. And his control during his time in the majors last year was suspect (I should know, I had him on my team). I’ve never seen him pitch, so I only have the numbers to go by. I’d hate to miss out if he’s gonna be this year’s Tommy Hanson, but if he’s just this year’s Jordan Zimmermann, I think I can wait. Just curious.

i have one roster spot – i know morales isn’t the closer once street comes back, but do you still like him better than capps? or should i get capps since he is supposed to be the closer (despite his bad spring and rumors of people waiting in the wings)?

@Grey: Im in a 12 team H2H that has a 9 pitcher max on your roster. There is 7 active P spots so you can obviously only have 2 on your bench. My staff is Lester, Hamels, Nolasco, Garza, Slowey, Correia, Aardsma, Marmol, M.Gonzalez.

Is Correia droppable in this type of situation for a weekly 2 start pitcher with favorable matchups? Looking at Padilla this week.

Also, Latos is a free agent. Should I just drop Correia for him and leave my pitching staff as is? It’s a non keeper league. Thanks bud.

@ Grey
I’m reposting my team/message for your ease, sorry for clogging the board with my team more then once. After I posted earlier you asked me how many teams were in the league. 12.

“So, here’s my team. For the most part, I like it as I went offense heavy early and have a whole stable of pitchers, except I could seriously use another closer (the dash for closers was so intense, I spent $25 on Nunez and Frasor) so I have 3 hopeful MRs. Let me know what you guys think.
Also, 2 people picked up 2 catchers (1 has ianetta/wieters, another has posada/suzuki, so hopefully I’ll be able to upgrade C. Also AJ P is shockingly available if Clement sucks)

Clement minor league numbers suggest he should hit 20-25 hr’s as a major leaguer in his prime. But his k/bb suggest he will be slump prone.

I saw you evaluation of Cantu is projections and other posts, but isn’t last years lack of pos post April due to his injury? Every number from the minors and previous years where he has gotten the playing time tells me he is a 25 homerun hitter with a solid average and a good batting eye. What am I missing on your hate with Cantu?

@Grey: In regards to that 12 team H2H league I mentioned, with the 9 max Pitchers, you see any holes? I have a major woody for this team. Just traded Heath Bell, Adam Lind, + Jimmy Rollins, for HanRam + Matt Garza. How do you think it sits now with Correia possibly being replaced by Latos:

@The Hebrew Hammer: You’ve use the forums before, what no more? Team looks fine on hitting, but probably will struggle for average. The pitching looks a little sloppy. You might need a 3rd and 4th starter.

@Mark: He’s hit 25+ homers for two years and 15 homers for two years. So not exactly consistent. If you want to think last year was an injury for five months, then try him out. He could hit 25 homers. He’s kinda like the Juan Rivera of 1st base though. Even if he hits 25 homers, no one will respect it.

@SamYo: ESPN New York reported earlier it was just a contusion(bruise) and he’ll be fine.

Also Willie Randolph (MIL bench coach) was on the Michael K show and he confirmed that Corey Hart and Jim Edmonds would be splitting time in Right Field. Glad I got sniped a few picks before I wanted Hart.

Let the games begin, indeed! But wait! Who’s my 2B? I’m in a deep 14 team mixed league and took a hit a second. We all love Desmond (eligible at 2B), but do we love him more than….
Scott Sizemore
Kelly Johnson
Sean Rodriguez
Chris Getz
Casey McGehee…?
Did I mention that its an OBP league? NO? Well it certainly is. Does that mean KJ is the favorite? Oh I hope it’s not so.

@Grey: loooooove the buy/sell happy its back.. picked up carmona as a flier last week in RCL; feels like itd be like the walk of shame im front of my leaguemates if i drop carmona now that you posted him as a sell; he’ll be nestled on my bench till he proves himself in reg. season. In fact, with the doodes im weary of (even price) i think it may be best to let them chill on the bench till they prove themselves so youre not in a big hole out of the gates in ERA/WHIP if they implode (use setup men instead)…..sound strategy or more damaging?

@Simply Fred: Sure, I can see making trades but really, what can change between the draft and opening day? Unless it’s someone being named closer — say, you swapped Latos for Rauch yesterday (in which case, bravo) — any trade now is essentially based on no information. It’s like Quasimodo Perez Hilton: all hunches and rumors and gossip.

Someone might hit 2nd or 8th? For how long? Someone’s having a great spring? Who cares? Look who had a great spring in ’09. (Schmoes. Look it up.) David Frees is a nice guy? I don’t give a shit. Ian Desmond is a good father? Flub you and go home and play with your kids.

I just feel like pre-season jostling is just like April panic (Must get BONIFACIO!) except worse, because NOTHING’S HAPPENING.

But you know. Some leagues are different.

@Grey: Thanks! I like the poison pill. Like in Hearts, when you can pass two cards to the left, and that guy has to keep them. Except instead of the Queen of Spades, it’s Willie Bloomquist.

An auto-draft league would actually offer a much wider range of possible strategies: For example, front-load your list with only SPs. Corner the market on aces, then start swapping toward a balanced team.

@matthole: Desmond. Yeah, you bench him then he’s going to pitch well. Then you start him in the next game and he’s going to kill you.

@Baron Von Vulturewins: It reminds me of ten or so years ago when Rudy and I would have to autodraft our teams. Was like Christmas morning but you’d always have at least five or six turds stuck between your presents.

@Cheese: I’m sure he’ll check in on his post when he gets out of work.

Hey Grey, thank you for mentioning Marcum. Guys in my draft thought I was nutty to pick him. Anyway, I need your advice. I just drafted in my money league 12 team, 5×5 except we sub out avg for obp, and instead of 5of we have 3of and 2 util. I picked 12th and my roster is:
c- napoli
1b- howard
2b-phillips
ss-reyes (i do believe)
3b-wright
of- n.cruz, quentin, c.gonzalez (col),
util- i.stewart, a.soriano
bench- g.jones, c.maybin, d.young
sp- j.johnson, ubaldo, billingsley, oswalt, e.santana, marcum
rp- h.bell, r.madson, f.morales, d.bard, f.rodney
is this horrible or at least competitive? pitchers just flew off the board in this draft, esp. closers.
Oh, and I have to give thanks (yeah that sounded lame) for your site and predictions. Seriously, you called a lot of the crazy shite people do in drafts. Some dude took Crawford 5th overall! Crazy.

@Jake: Thanks for the kind words! I like how your team looks, don’t think your pitching staff looks horrible. Hopefully Ervin or Marcum step up then you’ll be set, if not, you hit the waiver wire, you’ll be okay. At least your hitting is solid.

@Commish Cauda (formerly Mike): “This will hurt Davis’s Runs and RBIs a bit, but you weren’t drafting him for those stats anyway. Last year, Davis hit .189 and 4 homers in 122 ABs vs. lefties. You’re going to miss those numbers? Nah, Garko’s doing you a favor. So you might have to grab a waiver wire flier when the Rangers face a lefty-heavy staff, but if anything this helps Davis. He might now jump the .250 turdle. “

@the fake tom: If Reyes gets 40 steals (conservative), you have about 135 steals. That’s only about 15 steals off where you need to be to be average. And I gave Ibanez and Rasmus only 5, conservative again. So that’s not bad as long as Reyes shows up this season. The power is obviously there. You can grab some steals off waivers, I wouldn’t worry about that. Your pitching is weak though. You need huge dividends from guys that are risky. I’d consider trading Holliday for Halladay or Lincecum, not in that order. If you can’t get either, then start working your way down the the starter rankings.

Got offered David Price and Chris Davis for Johan – pull the trigger or stand put?

12 team 6×6 (holds and OPS) H2H. I have Chase Headley starting out at 3B, a pitching staff with Greinke, Johan, Garza, Ervin, Buchholz, Homer and Masterson. So I’d probably benefit from Davis over Headley (who I’d drop) but I might be weary to throw Price in as a main cog for a SP staff that has only Greinke and Garza as known commodities. So it really depends on how you value Johan for 2010 and whether you’re confident that either Davis won’t get swallowed up by the attrition rate endemic to the Hee Seop Choi Club for Hacking Gentlemen or Price will take the step forward to being SP2 quality. What do you say?

Grey,
1st year with FAAB in my league and the guy whose wife is 8.8 months pregnant with their first gremlin just dropped Alcides. Not his fault–he probably hasn’t read anything but Dr. Spock since January. How much of my 100 bones should I bid? My SS is Elvis Andrus aka Don Cortisone. Thanks for the best roto blog in the multi-verse!

@GTS: Hey, any relation to GTL? You look a little light on speed, not sure if that was the intention because of the added OBP. (I didn’t count Davis or Borbon, because if you’re playing them then you’re not playing someone else.) It is a strong team overall though. Pitching’s real solid and the hitting looks fine, besides the aforementioned caveat.

Grey, I just got offered Justin Upton straight up for Justin Verlander. Here is my current squad in a 12 team H2H. What are your thoughts? Is it a no-brainer? Do I have enough in the back end of my pitching staff?

Hey man, I’ve been following your posts pretty hardcore, drafted last week in a 12 team 7×6 (BB’s, Slugging, Qs), kind of a weird format, favors power hitters. This is my lineup. I had second pick, took A Rod instead of Han Ram, as a yankee fan I am convinced A Rod is going to hit 50 bombs, but most would disagree. My biggest dilemma is middle infield, can’t decide if I want Ian Desmond or Alcides Escobar, I am short on speed, but with this format it might be worth more to have a more well rounded player like dessie. Would be great to get your opinion. Thanks for all the help.

Should I trade Mark Reynolds for Ryan Zimmerman straight up, in one of my h2h leagues, to a guy that has Jose Lopez slotted in at first base? I personally like the trade because I don’t like Reynols for another 20 stolen bases, and without that, he’s not nearly the player Zimmerman is imo.

@Slam: No problem. I’d go with Desmond i that format. Your pitching looks very strong, perhaps stronger than your hitting. Your hitting doesn’t look bad, just a bit light on speed, but in that format, it’s for the best. Overall, solid team.

Hey Grey, wanted your opinion on this trade. My hitting and pitching are pretty equal at this point, so consider it in a vacuum. Categories include OPS and K/BB. I give Sabathia, Granderson, and Marmol for Upton and Hamilton. Thanks

@Griffey24: I think for that shallow of a league your hitting should be a bit better, it’s not terrible though. Yunel’s not worth owning. Neither is FraGu. Not sure what you’re doing with Beltre and Heyward either. To draft all of those guys you’re not going to use, you could’ve drafted some better pitchers. Your pitching doesn’t look strong enough. I’d see if you can turn some of your bench hitters into a decent starter.

Hey Grey,
What do you think abt Kazmir.. What Numbers do you think he finishes with this season? Everybody is pretty low on him for this year? Hes gone to a good organization and he’s a strikeout pitcher…. If he can get it all together can he become a soft ace?

Mr. Grey, Been readin your shizz all day. Don’t know how I got here (you know how the net is, you click on a link and…voila..razzball!), but I sure have a better idea of where I’m going. I feel bad about dumping some old guys with no upside and looking forward to dreaming in Sanchezzz Tekkkkknicolor. Thanks for the hours of mirth and peerless prognostications! I’m managing four teams (2 H2H and 2 Roto) am a longtime Expos fan (love the references to Ron Leflore!) and looking forward to a great season!