Patriots can tag star Wes Welker as of today

Wel, it’s come to this

Credit: Nancy Lane

TAG, YOU MAY BE IT: Patriots wide receiver Wes Welker, shown making a play against the Giants in Super Bowl XLVI, could be franchised as early as today.

FOXBORO — Let the games begin.

After more than a year of speculation, the situation surrounding a possible long-term extension for Patriots receiver Wes Welker finally heats up.

According to the collective bargaining agreement, today is the first day teams can designate their franchise player. The Patriots could attempt to lock up Welker with a one-year contract worth an estimated $9.6 million. The window closes March 5 at 4 p.m.

But whether they will — and what it means — is a topic for debate. It is the Patriots’ most high-profile contract situation since quarterback Tom Brady’s prior to the 2010 season. During Super Bowl week, Welker expressed optimism.

“I plan on being back so I’m not really too worried about that right now,” Welker said Jan. 30. “I’m fully concentrated on this game and what we have to do, but I plan on being back.”

The talks do not appear to have gone smoothly. Discussions between his representatives and the Patriots have not yet included a breakthrough, a source said.

If the Patriots tag Welker, it could mean they are close to a deal and want a few more days to make it happen — as they did with defensive tackle Vince Wilfork two years ago. It also could mean they want to keep Welker around on a one-year deal, at which point Welker may decide he wants more security, staying home like left guard Logan Mankins did in 2010.

Making matters worse for Welker is that, based on a new, complex calculation in the CBA (involving the average of the top five players at his position), the franchise number is down nearly $2 million from what it would have been last year. Still, the Pats won’t want to take a $9.6 million salary cap hit.

Welker spent 2011 earning $2.15 million, the final year of an undervalued contract, making a league-best 122 catches for 1,569 yards and nine touchdowns, both career highs. He has eclipsed 100 catches in four of the last five seasons, although a late drop in Super Bowl XLVI ended the season on a disappointing note.

He is one of the game’s most productive receivers. Detractors would say the Patriots system deserves credit for that. Welker may have complicated things in October by stating that without quarterback Tom Brady, “There’s no way I would” be the same player.

But could another receiver like Julian Edelman be as productive? Maybe not. The debate over his value rages on.

It doesn’t seem likely Welker will join the ranks of Cardinals receiver Larry Fitzgerald (eight years/$120 million) or Texans receiver Andre Johnson (seven years/$73.5 million). A slot receiver who has taken plenty of hits — and will be 31 by next season — will command less.

His value isn’t obvious, and there is a line of thinking that the Patriots may allow him to test the market to find that out himself. That’s a risk, as another team could step in with a huge offer and swipe him.

During the playoffs, owner Robert Kraft was hopeful about keeping Welker, who arrived from Miami via a trade before the 2007 season.

“I think Wes wants to be here, and we want him here,” Kraft said Jan. 20. “Hopefully when the season ends, both sides will be wise enough to consummate something. He’s pretty special.”

Welker put off talking about his contract all year, saying, “It can be a story after the season’s over.”