Dark Snow Project: Crowd-Source Funded Science for Greenland

"There's no place on Earth that is changing faster--and no place where that change matters more--than Greenland." So said 350.org founder Bill McKibben, in a 2012 Rolling Stone magazine interview. As Earth Week 2013 draws to a close, I want to draw your attention to a unique effort to learn more about why Greenland is melting so fast--a crowd-funded research project that anyone can contribute to, which aims to answer the "burning question": How much does wildfire and industrial soot darken the ice, increasing melt? The Dark Snow Project, the first-ever Greenland expedition relying on crowd-source funding, hopes to raise $150,000 to mount a field research campaign to find out. The project is the brainchild of Dr. Jason Box, Professor at the Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland (GEUS), and one of the world's leading experts on Greenland's glaciers. He has set up a website called darksnowproject.org to help raise the funds for the field campaign, and has raised about half of the needed amount as of mid-April.

Figure 1. Over the course of several years, turbulent water overflow from a large melt lake carved this 60-foot-deep (18.3 meter-deep) canyon in Greenland's Ice Sheet (note people near left edge for scale). Image credit: Ian Joughin, University of Washington.

2012: Unprecedented melting in GreenlandWatching the weather events of 2012 over Greenland made all seasoned climate watchers a little queasy. The vast ice sheet on the island holds enough water to raise global sea levels by 7.36 meters (24.15 feet) were it all to melt, and the ice melt season of 2012 gave notice that an epic melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet may be underway. According to NOAA's 2012 Arctic Report Card, the duration of melting at the surface of the ice sheet in summer 2012 was the longest since satellite observations began in 1979, and the total amount of summer melting was nearly double the previous record, set in 2010 (satellite records of melting go back to 1979.) A rare, near-ice sheet-wide surface melt event melted 97% of the surface of Greenland's ice sheet on July 11 - 12. While a similar melt event at the summit occurred 1889, but the 1889 event has no basis in the instrumental record from coastal Greenland. It's instead likely that 2012 was Greenland's warmest summer in at least 863 years, since the medieval warm period (see http://www.meltfactor.org/blog/?p=677 and http://www.meltfactor.org/blog/?p=725). The incredibly warm temperatures have been blamed on highly unusual atmospheric circulation and jet stream changes, which were also responsible for 2012's unusually wet summer weather in England. It would not be a surprise if this sort of summer began occurring more often, since temperatures on top of the Greenland Ice Sheet have been rising six times faster than the global average during the past twenty years. A May 2013 Geophysical Research Letters paper by McGrath et al., "Recent warming at Summit, Greenland: Global context and implications", concluded that by 2025, there is a 50% chance of ice sheet-wide melt events happening annually. The ice sheet reached its darkest value on record in 2012. The darkened surface was due to below average summer snow, soot particles from pollution and forest fires, and record melting. A darker ice sheet absorbs more solar energy, in a vicious cycle that raises temperatures, melts more ice, and further darkens the ice sheet. The amount of melting that was caused by soot from forest fires is important to know, since global warming is likely to increase the amount of forest fires in coming decades. However, the amount of forest fire soot landing on the Greenland Ice Sheet is almost completely unknown, which is why Dr. Box is determined to find out, via the Dark Snow Project.

Figure 2. Smoke from a fire in Labrador, Canada wafts over the Greenland ice sheet on June 17, 2012, as seen in this cross-section view of aerosol particles taken by NASA's CALIPSO satellite. Image credit: Dr. Jason Box, Ohio State University.

Greenland causing 25% of global sea level riseIn a landmark study published in November 2012 in Science, 47 researchers from 26 laboratories reported that the amount of ice being lost from Greenland and Antarctica has tripled since the 1990s, with Greenland contributing more than twice as much to global sea level rise than Antarctica. The study, "A Reconciled Estimate of Ice-Sheet Mass Balance", found that the two ice sheets were responsible for 20% of the global sea level rise of 3.1 mm/year during the 20-year period 1992 - 2011. The remainder of the rise was due to expansion of the water due to heating of the oceans, melting of mountain glaciers, and unsustainable pumping of ground water. Said co-author Erik Ivins of NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory, "The pace of ice loss from Greenland is extraordinary, with nearly a five-fold increase since the mid-1990s." As of 2011, Greenland's contribution to global sea level rise on its own had risen to 20 - 25%, according to an international research group led by the GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences, in an article published in Earth and Planetary Science Letters on 1 June 2012. If the current exponential ice loss trends continue for the next ten years, Greenland's contribution to sea level rise will double to 1.4 mm/yr by 2022, the researchers said. Many sea level rise researchers expect global sea level to rise by about 1 meter (3.3 feet) by 2100. During the 20th century, global sea level rise was about 0.18 meters (7 inches.)

Figure 3. Monthly smoothed (purple) and unsmoothed (blue) values of the total mass lost from the Greenland Ice Sheet (in Gigatons, Gt) from measurements by the GRACE satellites between March 2002-September 2012. An approximate equivalent global sea level rise figure is on the right axis. Note that the decline in ice mass lost from Greenland is not a straight line--it is exponential, meaning that more ice loss is lost each year than in the previous year. Image credit: 2012 Arctic Report Card.

Will Antarctica be more important than Greenland for sea level rise?Although melting from Greenland is currently raising global sea level by about a factor of two more than Antarctica melting is, that situation may change later this century. A 2013 study by Dahl-Jensen et al. looked at a new ice core drilled from the bottom-most depths of the Greenland Ice Sheet. The core suggests that the ice in Greenland may have partially survived the warm Eemian period before the Ice Age, approximately 118,000 - 126,000 years ago, when Greenland temperatures were 5- 8°C warmer than present-day temperatures. Global sea level during the Eemian was 4 - 8 meters (13 - 26 ft) higher than the present sea level, and the scientists estimated that melting from Greenland was responsible for 2 meters (6.6 ft) of this sea level rise. This implies that Antarctica was responsible for 50 - 75% of global sea level rise during the Eemian, and thus we might expect Antarctica to take over as the dominant source of sea level rise later this century, when global temperatures may to rise to levels similar to those experienced during the Eemian.

Video 1. Glaciologist Dr. Jason Box and 350.org founder Bill McKibben plug the Darksnow project in this January 2013 video by Peter Sinclair. There's some impressive footage of the record Greenland snow melt of summer 2012 sweeping away a 20-ton tractor that was attempting to repair a bridge washed out by the raging Watson River on July 11, 2012 in Kangerlussauaq, Greenland. The driver escaped unharmed.

Support the Dark Snow ProjectOne of Dr. Box's collaborators, photographer James Balog, who created the amazing time-lapse Greenland glacier footage in the fantastic 2012 "Chasing Ice" movie, puts it like this: "Working in Greenland these past years has left me with a profound feeling of being in the middle of a decisive historic moment--the kind of moment, at least in geologic terms, that marks the grand tidal changes of history." On that note, I encourage you all to support the Dark Snow Project. Have a great weekend, everyone!

Quoting BobChecks:Am I correct in my suspicion that when the discussion turns in directions that bothers some people they then post images in an attempt to disrupt?

No, you are not correct. Some people would rather discuss the tropics and actual weather instead of the same old song and dance.

Some of us get it. The globe is warming. What are you guys who discuss it incessantly every day on this blog actually doing in the real world to make a difference? Nea does a good job with his website and his maps/graphs make a lot of sense. Other than that, what are the rest of you doing?

So far what I've seen is to 1) ignore them or 2) ban them. Are their other options?

Not sure if there are, but the two don't have to be mutually exclusive. In my opinion, once it becomes apparent that any appeals to science or logic are disregarded, ignoring that user would be the proper course of action. Typically, people don't have much to say once they realize that there is no one listening. If however, the user in question goes above and beyond to cause trouble (think Joe B's global cooling twitter rants), then I would have no problems with the moderators stepping in and placing a ban on that person for a duration that they see fit.

With that being said, I would be open to alternate solutions if so brought up.

Quoting 1900hurricane:At the same time, what has confronting said group of people accomplished? Perhaps I'm incorrect when I say this for I only spend a fraction of my time here, but it does not appear that your guns-blazing approach in the name of science has turned the tables whatsoever regarding the mis-informed and closed-minded. If I'm not mistaken, it was Albert Einstein who defined insanity as the repetition of the same thing while expecting different results. Almost every time I visit Weather Underground, the same confrontations and arguments rage on and on, and yet the results never change. Perhaps a different ideology for handling the issue will yield better results, but as you mentioned, perhaps not. This is for sure though: you don't know until you give it a try. The status quo cannot carry on indefinitely.

Do you have any potential solutions?

So far what I've seen is to 1) ignore them or 2) ban them. Are their other options?

Anyone know if there's a correlation between a wet spring in the eastern US and vertical instability in the western Atlantic?

Last two years, there's been dry summers coinciding with below average vertical instability, resulting in many tropical storms failing to intensify. Can't help thinking the two things are connected.

YB, I've heard locals here in SW Florida talking about past wet springs leading into active hurricane seasons. Whether one has anything to do with the other I can't say for sure yet, but I sure hated the Crown Weather forecast someone posted a day or two ago showing SW FL with a 90-95% chance of a hurricane this year....

On the plus side, this is my 4th spring here since moving to Florida, and it's been just plain awesome to for once have some real rainfall here in April - the month that's typically our driest. I'm hoping for an early start and long length to our rainy season. The last 2 rainy seasons in particular were, for us, inconsistent and relatively short-lived, and I can't help but think that the persistent warm, stable air aloft that covered much of the tropical Atlantic had something to do with it.

Thanks for asking some great questions; I hope they will generate some discussion!

Quoting Neapolitan:If we were speaking of only "a few close minded ones", I think I might tend to agree with you. But, alas, there are more than a few, and close-mindedness is the least of their character flaws. There's willful ignorance, rigid ideological thinking, rabid anti-intellectualism, a deeply-rooted mistrust of science and scientists, poor facility with English, limited depth or dimensionality of thought, and so on, and so forth.

That's quite a basketful, if you ask me. And allowing those thus afflicted to have free reign of the room never really seems to accomplish much... ;-)

At the same time, what has confronting said group of people accomplished? Perhaps I'm incorrect when I say this for I only spend a fraction of my time here, but it does not appear that your guns-blazing approach in the name of science has turned the tables whatsoever regarding the mis-informed and closed-minded. If I'm not mistaken, it was Albert Einstein who defined insanity as the repetition of the same thing while expecting different results. Almost every time I visit Weather Underground, the same confrontations and arguments rage on and on, and yet the results never change. Perhaps a different ideology for handling the issue will yield better results, but as you mentioned, perhaps not. This is for sure though: you don't know until you give it a try. The status quo cannot carry on indefinitely.

What is causing all of these severe weather setups to have a cold front that undercuts the warm sector? I don't recall having a setup last year at all which the reason why tornado potential was reduced because the storms were "anafrontal"?

.SYNOPSIS...ZONAL FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. MODERATETRADE WINDS WILL PERSIST THRU MID WEEK WITH SERLY FLOW DEVELOPINGAT THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MODELS SHOW MID LEVEL DRYING TAKING PLACE THROUGHWED AS JET STREAK LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST. BUT EXPECT SCT SHOWERSAND THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON AIDED BY DAYTIME HEATING ANDINSTABILITY. THE SHOWERS COULD BE VERY SLOW MOVERS AS STEERINGCURRENTS COLLAPSE. MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE THU AND DEEPENSFURTHER THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS SERLY FLOW DEVELOPS. EXPECTCLOUDY AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS NEXT WEEKEND. THERE IS A TROUGH FCSTTO PASS TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA WHICH COULD ADD SOME ENHANCEMENTBUT A 850 AND 700 THERE IS STRONG RIDGING WHICH COULD BE ANINHIBITING FACTOR FOR A SIG HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL TERMINALSFOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THEINTERIOR OF PR IS CAUSING MTN OBSCURATIONS AND THIS ACTIVITY MAYMOVE SOUTH LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY CAUSING MVFR CONDITIONSACROSS TJPS BEFORE 29/00Z. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE EASTNORTHEAST AT AROUND 10 KTS...DECREASING TO UNDER 10 KTS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS REMAIN IN THE 6-8 FT RANGE IN NORTHEAST SWELLS.SWELLS WILL BE VERY SLOW TO SUBSIDE OVR THE NEXT 2-4 DAYS BUTEXPECT A SLOW IMPROVEMENT STARTING LATE TONIGHT.

Quoting 1900hurricane:I would disagree. Ignoring those who refuse to learn via scientific method would in my opinion lead to a more cohesive and informative blog with a few closed minded ones out on the ragged edges shouting for attention. But alas, perhaps I am too much of an idealist...

If we were speaking of only "a few close minded ones", I think I might tend to agree with you. But, alas, there are more than a few, and close-mindedness is the least of their character flaws. There's willful ignorance, rigid ideological thinking, rabid anti-intellectualism, a deeply-rooted mistrust of science and scientists, poor facility with English, limited depth or dimensionality of thought, and so on, and so forth.

That's quite a basketful, if you ask me. And allowing those thus afflicted to have free reign of the room never really seems to accomplish much... ;-)

Quoting 1900hurricane:I would disagree. Ignoring those who refuse to learn via scientific method would in my opinion lead to a more cohesive and informative blog with a few closed minded ones out on the ragged edges shouting for attention. But alas, perhaps I am too much of an idealist...

Thank you. It's nice to know that someone has learned how to use the internet.

Flash Flood in Malaysia on Sunday, 28 April, 2013 at 14:05 (02:05 PM) UTC.DescriptionMore than 200 houses were damaged after a freak storm ripped through Kampung Segambut Bahagia, Segambut here today. Barisan Nasional candidate for Segambut Jayanthi Devi Balaguru who was making campaign rounds rushed to the scene following a resident's call. She said about 25 families were affected in Segambut Bahagia. The 5.30pm incident is said to be the first of its kind in the last 20 years. However, no one was injured in the incident. Jayanthi said most of the houses were badly damaged, where either roofs were missing or portions of their homes had collapsed. "The rain water which seeped through also damaged most of their furniture and household items. " I totally understand and feel very sorry for them but what is important now is to place them somewhere safe, before a permanent solution is found,” she said, adding before making arrangements for temporary shelter at a Sri Segambut Community Hall. Jayanthi said she had also contacted the City Hall and the Welfare department to assist those affected.

"Don't worry, I understand your situation and will sort out something more permanent, as soon as I can," she assured the residents. "On the whole, we have reports that over 200 houses were damaged by the freak storm. We have detailed out the necessary relief plans for those affected and will try to get them PPR house or something, accordingly” she added. A resident, M. Krishnasamy, 55 said it was the first time a storm as such had caused so much damages at his place. "This is the worst, ever. About 10 years back, we were in a similar situation but the damage was not this bad,” said the father of two, who has been staying there for the last 17 years. Krishnasamy said the roof in the back portion of his house including the kitchen and prayer altar of his house, were ripped off by the strong wind.

Extreme Weather in USA on Sunday, 28 April, 2013 at 14:03 (02:03 PM) UTC.DescriptionSeveral parts of Middle Tennessee experienced flash flooding and road closures as heavy rain moved through the area. Forecasters said a low pressure system will cross the area Saturday night and Sunday as moisture moves in from the South. Numerous showers and thunderstorms, some of which will produce heavy rainfall and flash flooding, expected to move across the region. A flash flood watch remained in effect through Sunday morning for parts of Middle Tennessee. Some of the storms were expected to produce very heavy downpours with some areas seeing several inches of rainfall causing flash flooding, especially along small streams. Stewart County EMA Director Clint Mathis said they had people clinging to trees, a house fire, and other weather-related problems across the county, especially in Carlisle and Indian Mound. Officials with the Montgomery County EMS said they also had widespread flooding, "just about anywhere that's a low lying area." Specific problem areas included Trenton Road, Wilma Rudolph, Lylewood Road and Madison Street. Officials in LaVergne opened city hall as a shelter for anyone who has been forced out of their homes. Mt. Juliet police said they were not able to close or barricade roads quickly enough and said flooded roads could be hidden. Residents were advised to stay off the roads. Additional officers were called in to help. Sergeant Tyler Chandler said Saturday night was prom in Mt. Juliet. They were concerned some students may be out on the roads in dangerous conditions and asked kids to stay put.

Flash Flood in Somalia on Sunday, 28 April, 2013 at 14:01 (02:01 PM) UTC.DescriptionJowhar (RBC) Torrential rains battered more than twenty hours Jowhar town, Somalia's Middle Shabeelle region causing fresh floods into residential villages. The rains which started early on Friday continued until Saturday when the residents of Badda Cas village in Jowhar begun to flee from their homes. The regional administration based in Jowhar called for sudden intervention to the floods as hundreds of homes were damaged caused by rain-induced floods. More than 200 families, among them elderly women and children, are estimated to be displaced by the recent rains, the administration said. The deluge caused by the seasonal rains in the region came as already flooded Shabeelle river water resumed to break its banks again.

Extreme Weather in USA on Sunday, 28 April, 2013 at 08:27 (08:27 AM) UTC.DescriptionStorms dumped rains and hail on the Greater Houston area in the U.S. state of Texas on Saturday, flooding streets and causing power outage, local media reported. Flood Control District officials reported as much as six inches (15 centimeters) of rainfall in some parts of Harris County, where the city of Houston is located, in three hours, according to newspaper the Houston Chronicle. There were also reports of golf ball-sized hail in parts of the Houston metro area. Drivers were stranded by floodwater in many areas of south and southwest Houston. Local firefighters responded to at least 50 calls for water rescue Saturday, the Houston Chronicle quoted Houston Fire Department spokesman Jay Evans as reporting. Several roads were closed due to flooding in parts of west and southwest Harris County and Fort Bent County. Electricity provider CenterPoint Energy said that 44,927 customers were without power as of 7:00 a.m. The storms were also blamed for a roof collapse that destroyed a store in the city of Sugar Land. The roof collapse is a result of water collecting on the roof during Saturday's storm, according to media reports. The owners said they were inside and heard the roof start to collapse, but no one was hurt.

Quoting Neapolitan:Not arguing, but discrediting and disproving in a systematic, scientific fashion. For not doing so leaves the forum looking as though it supports such inanity--and then the whole thing is worthless.

I would disagree. Ignoring those who refuse to learn via scientific method would in my opinion lead to a more cohesive and informative blog with a few closed minded ones out on the ragged edges shouting for attention. But alas, perhaps I am too much of an idealist...

AN ANOMALOUS LONGWAVE TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL U.S.TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WILL DOMINATE THE MEDIUM RANGEFORECAST OVER THE LOWER 48. A POTENT COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGHTHE MIDWEST...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS...CENTRAL/SOUTHERNROCKIES...AND GREAT BASIN ON WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY AS THE MAIN TROUGHAXIS QUICKLY DIVES SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE NATION. BY THE ENDOF THE WORK WEEK...THE MID-LEVEL ENERGY WILL GET SANDWICHEDBETWEEN STRONG RIDGING BUILDING IN OVER BOTH COASTS OF THECOUNTRY. WITH NOWHERE TO GO...THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CLOSE OFFOVER THE CENTRAL CONUS AND REMAIN RELATIVELY STAGNANT THERETHROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

A PIECE OF SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY CROSSING THE GULF COAST STATESMID/LATE THIS WEEK WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVERFLORIDA...BUT ANY SORT OF SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS WITH THIS FEATURESEEMS LIKE A LESS LIKELY SCENARIO.

It depends on how reliable you want the information on this site to be.

I can see the point you are making, but trying to correct someone who is not willing to be corrected is not necessarily the best plan of action in my opinion. At least out here on Jeff Master's blog (I can't speak for Ricky Rood's blog for I rarely venture over there), ignoring those who refuse to learn via accepted scientific method may be a better method to foster an active and productive dialog between users. Trying to reach out to the completely closed minded is about as effective as teaching a rock to play a viola concerto and too often leads to incoherent shouting matches.

Now with this being said, I do not mean that we shouldn't try to share our knowledge and opinions with those around us, for this is one of the things that makes the world such a great place. However, upon the occurrence of closed minds and circular arguments, some things are best left alone. If executed properly, I don't think that any offenders would enjoy rambling to themselves for very long.

Right. And the CW kooks would tell you that you'd reversed the image because you're a socialist. Or that the image was from the Southern Hemisphere. Or that the image didn't matter because a blog they regularly read said otherwise. Or how it was only a single loop and could easily be just a fluke. Or how the loop should be discounted because why should we believe anything that comes out of a government satellite. Or how...

Quoting 1900hurricane:If it comes to that, is it even worth arguing?

Not arguing, but discrediting and disproving in a systematic, scientific fashion. For not doing so leaves the forum looking as though it supports such inanity--and then the whole thing is worthless.