Thursday, May 14, 2009

It wasn’t just Ken Lewis with his arm twisted behind his back. In mid-October, the Treasury told a panel of 9 major banks that they had to either voluntarily take capital infusions or they would be tied down and given them anyway.

Zillow reports 74% of homeowners believe their home will hold or gain value over the next 12 months and 63% believe home values in their markets will increase or stay the same. One third of the group said they would be somewhat likely to put their homes on the market in the next 12 months if the real estate market started to turn around – in other words, there is substantial shadow inventory waiting to hit a bid. Homeowners in the West seem most aligned with reality, scoring a 2 on Zillow’s “Misperception Index” (zero is reality), Northeastern perception is the most out of whack, scoring an 11. Skew: 92% of this survey group also believe in Santa Claus, the Easter Bunny and the full faith and credit of the United States Government.

IBM said 2010 earnings of $10-11 are likely.

Phoenix Solar indicated large scale solar projects are getting back on track. In related news, the head of China’s National Energy Administration’s New Energy Department said large scale PV projects will not be eligible for subsidies – they are likely to promote feed-in tariffs instead.

Panel demand is showing signs of decline, according to BenQ. Not surprising as the industry has practically doubled production sequentially. Sony blowing up isn’t going to help the case against this theory. Don’t like Corning here.

Speaking of Sony, I walked through their store yesterday. Their prices are idiotic. Everything they sell is twice the going rate of comparable products. I know Madison Avenue rent is high but come on -- $1000 for a netbook? It doesn’t even have a real keyboard. They’re wildly out of price position in every market they serve and they’re losing all their key markets to competition – music players to Apple, video games to Nintendo, televisions to Samsung. Sony seems like they’re in serious long-term trouble.