Friday, September 18, 2015

Donald Trump - Creating A New Coalition

To get a political party's nomination for President and to ultimately to win the Presidency, the candidate must put together a coalition of voters and for better or worse interest groups. Donald Trump, in seeking the Republican nomination for President is a brilliant marketeer; but more important he is putting together a New Coalition, that he is calling the "Noisy Majority". It is very different than the traditional Republican Coalition that includes Big Business, Limited Government Economic and Social Conservatives, which is the base of the Republican Party and those that support a strong military. Trump, who knows exactly what he is doing, is in fact in Socialist territory as he develops a New Coalition.

Trump is pushing for Economic Populism, which is anti-free trade and mildly opposed to the rich, even though Trump is a billionaire. Remember, Franklin Roosevelt was rich too. This argument speaks to union types and others that believe they lost their jobs to China and other countries as a result of trade agreements, which in fact is true. For the first time since before the Depression, Trump as a Republican is pushing for tariffs against goods entering the United States to bring back manufacturing jobs. Of course, the history of tariffs is resultant trade wars that ultimately are counter productive and actually contributed to the Great Depression; but it doesn't matter. If you are a 50 year old guy that can't find work paying you $30 an hour, or more, like you had before, you are buying it. And, specific to the income inequality issue, Trump is saying he will cut taxes for the Middle Class, that have suffered greatly under Obama, but go after the rich, those greedy Wall Street Guys and Bankers that nobody likes. Trump could very well get union endorsements out of this story if he is the Republican nominee.

Next, Trump is all about Nationalism. "Make America Great Again" is a terrific slogan that most segments of the voting population surely support. It involves economic development to create jobs in the US, a strong military, supporting our VETS, securing our border and dealing with illegal aliens that many union workers and others blame for taking their jobs and for crime in America. By the way, the illegal alien crime problem that Trump's speaks about is real supported by Data. This story also plays to those that use the slogan, "Take Back our Country", which includes Conservatives and Tea Party Members that are disgusted by our National Debt and with the decline of America around the world and a lot of the social change in our country that many see as corrosive.

Trump is keeping Social Conservatives in his New Coalition by his stands against Abortion, Planned Parenthood and Common Core all of which are vehemently opposed by Social Conservatives. This also plays well to Evangelicals and there are millions of them if they choose to vote.Mitt Romney would have won if he had been able to mobilize the Evangelical Vote, which did not happen.These are what are called, "Values Voters" and any Republican needs them to win.

Finally, Trump is running against Washington elites of both parties and the left wing media, which nearly everybody hates. In particular, this story plays well to Conservative Republicans, again the base of the party that literally hates the Republican Leadership and Empty Suits in the Congress, feeding at the trough, that we blame for failing to confront Obama on all issues important to Republicans; limiting the size of government, balancing the budget, higher taxes, reigning in the IRS and EPA, a strong national defense, repeal and replacement of ObamaCare, stopping Obama's Executive Amnesty Program, defunding Planned Parenthood, limiting abortion, School Choice, protecting 1st, 2nd and 4th Amendment Rights, etc. etc. Some old style Democrats and many Independents share this disgust for the federal government, as well. Just more Trump voters. And, of course, Republicans are sick and tired of the Politically Correct Crowd and we hate the left wing media, which is why many of Trump's outrageous comments are applauded.

Think about it. In putting this New Coalition together, Trump peals away at the Socialist Coalition making it harder for them to win in the General Election. Hillarita, or any Socialist that runs needs union support to win; but the unions oppose NAFTA and the new Trans Pacific Trade Agreements that Trump rails against. Unions also support the Keystone Pipeline that no doubt Trump would approve. Trump promises job growth as part of his Nationalism argument that will play to young people, many of whom can't find good jobs in the Obama economy. This is also a constituency that Socialists need to win.

This New Coalition positioning is only possible because Trump can self fund his own campaign. Trump really is running as an Independent within the Republican Party. The Republican Establishment, which includes Wall Street and Big Business as the source of campaign funds and US Chamber of Commerce types would never support the Economic Populism that Trump is advancing because they are all Free Traders at the expense of American jobs. They will go with Hillary because she can be bought. Trump has a very good chance of getting the Republican nomination and if he does so, especially with so many candidates running that divide up the Establishment and even Conservative vote, he might just be able to carry this message to the White House.

Even if Trump does not get the nomination, he will be the king maker at the Republican Convention because he will go to the Convention with a sizable number of Delegates that he could get to vote for the candidate of his choice; but their would have to be a "deal" related to this New Coalition. Just wait and see.In some ways, that deal is already happening as Republican Candidates adopt Trump's ideas in an attempt to build a Coalition of their own.