Phelan Has A Sales Job To Perform

That`s the shortfall Phelan predicts the county will face by 1997 if it tries to live on its current mix of tax revenues. He wants a sizable new sales tax in Cook County, which is not going to endear him to his constituents. Phelan has a huge selling job to do.

Nationwide, the costs of health care and public safety have zoomed. For Cook County, they now account for 77 percent of spending. Phelan is correct in predicting that future costs will rise and nobody-not the state or the federal government-can be expected to come to the rescue.

Some of the costs are unavoidable. For instance, the county is spending millions to build new jail cells so it can comply with a federal court order. It will pay millions more for workers to staff those jails.

So Phelan can make a good case that, barring any miracles, more money will be needed than the county can expect to reap from its current sources. The question is how much and from what sources.

Phelan has proposed a new county sales tax of three-quarters of a cent, which would raise $1.4 billion by 1997. It`s easy to make arguments against it. A new sales tax could place Chicago and suburban Cook County at a competitive disadvantage in efforts to seek business expansion. It would widen the difference in regional sales taxes: 8.75 percent in Chicago, 7.75 in suburban Cook, and 6.25 to 6.75 in the collar counties.

That`s a serious consideration for firms that make large purchases. Any company looking at locating or expanding in the region already must consider whether it wants to pay property taxes in Cook County or in the collar counties, where the impact of property-tax caps is still being weighed.

Phelan says his sales tax would provide property-tax ``relief.`` But, in fact, he still anticipates tremendous property-tax hikes even if he gets a sales tax.

The 1991 property-tax levy for Cook County was $689 million. Phelan projects that with a sales tax he could reduce the 1992 and 1993 property levies to $677 million. But then property taxes would climb dramatically-to $990 million in 1997, a 44 percent increase in six years.

Phelan`s choices, though, are limited. The trial balloon he floated in November for a higher state income tax landed with a thud. Most of the county`s other revenue sources are growing weakly. If he relied solely on property taxes, the county portion for each homeowner would nearly double by 1997.

The sales tax, which the Cook County Board has the authority to impose on its own, appears to be the most likely resort.

But is $1.7 billion justified? Public officials are learning they can`t buy their way out of social problems. The demand for alternatives to capital expenditures-like jail cells and hospital beds-is growing each year.

Richard Phelan might yet win his sales tax-if a hard look at the future of Cook County spending proves that less costly choices have been exhausted.