The incumbent usually has an advantage, but it does not show in the poll. She needs at least 45% approval at this stage of the electoral season to not be in deep trouble, and she does need a lead. She has neither. This gubernatorial race leans D. There is not enough time to both change the fundamentals and make a strong campaign for re-election.

Toss-up. Reynolds at 41% isn't so well and Trump's dumb trade war may swing Iowa heavily towards the Democrats. Both closer to 40 rather than 50% isn't that meaningful, though. But I give Hubbell a 55% chance to win at this point.

Grassley is done due to his role in Kavanaugh and Christie Vilsack can challenge Ernst now, since Iowa is beginning to turn on Grassley due to Ford allegations. Can't wait til Christie Vilsack challenges Ernst😁

If Reynolds, Blum and Young all lose, thatís terrible news for Joni Ernst and Trump's chances in IA in 2020.

Maybe, but Democrats for example got blown out in Tennessee in 94 and Clinton still carried the state two years later. A lot can happen.

Trump is much more polarizing than Clinton/Obama were and nowhere near as skilled a politician as them, plus he most likely wonít have the luxury of facing someone as or more unpopular as Clinton in 2020. Iím pretty sure Democrats will be as fired up in 2020 as they are right now, and I donít see any reason why the Trump 2016 voters who are either abandoning him right now or not showing up to vote at all will do so in 2020. If Republicans get crushed in IA this year, thereís no way the state is anything worse than Toss-up for Democrats in 2020. Iíd say itís even Lean/Likely D with someone like Sanders.

If Reynolds, Blum and Young all lose, thatís terrible news for Joni Ernst and Trump's chances in IA in 2020.

Maybe, but Democrats for example got blown out in Tennessee in 94 and Clinton still carried the state comfortably two years later. A lot can happen.

And Democrats lost the Illinois gubernatorial race, Senate race, and 4 House seats in 2010, and it didn't mean a damn thing for 2012.

At the very least, we can all agree that such a result should make Joni Ernst nervous.

Yes, in the sense that it means Iowa isn't the new Wyoming that is unwinnable for Dems even in waves, but very few if any people have been arguing that. It's just a strawman. Just because Dems can win Iowa in a wave like 2018 is shaping up to be doesn't mean it isn't trending heavily R and that Republicans are more likely than not to win it in a more neutral environment. Illinois didn't become a red state or a swing state just because Republicans dominated there in a wave.