Though there is no development expected in the next 48 hours, some features do bear watching the next few days.

A large tropical wave currently between 85 and 75 West and 10 and 20 North is looking to bring some showers to the coastline of Nicaragua and northern Panama and even into parts of Jamaica. Though this was being shown to develop on some models the past few days, most models are showing too much shear from a front over Florida and the northern Gulf along with some dry air interacting with the systems to allow development. This wave should continue to push westward and eventually bring some stronger rainfall to parts of the Yucatan and southern Mexico. Another weak tropical wave is near 50 West south of 10 North. With the ITCZ and the system so far south, development is not expected here with this system.

Otherwise, the rest of the tropics are looking quiet.

Tropical Atlantic: Monitoring Waters Near Mexico

While no tropical development is expected in the Atlantic Basin through this weekend, a system may try to organize in the vicinity of southern Mexico and Central America later next week.

According to Tropical Weather Expert Dan Kottlowski, "A sprawling area of dry air, associated with high pressure and strong westerly winds above the surface, will deter tropical development over the Atlantic Ocean through this weekend and into next week."

Westward-moving features, known as tropical waves, will continue to move along in the lowest levels of the atmosphere.

In order for any of these to develop, the strong westerly winds aloft, known as wind shear, would have to drop off.

There has been and continues to be some indication that a tropical wave could organize a bit in the swath from along the west coast of the Caribbean Sea to the southwestern Gulf of Mexico later next week, Kottlowski stated.

"The wind shear would have to decrease; otherwise, the feature would remain relatively weak in terms of tropical development," according to Kottlowski.

This region is a favored area for tropical development during June.

Steering winds expected later next week would generally likely take any feature in this area slowly toward the northeastern coast of Mexico.

There is a possibility of torrential showers and locally gusty thunderstorms in this region starting later next week, even if the system were to remain weak or fails to organize.

Communities and travel interests in the region should be prepared for the chance of flooding and mudslides.

It is a bit too early to say whether or not any of that rainfall would reach farther north, into parts of Texas. Steering winds would likely keep this particular system south of Florida and the upper Gulf Coast.

I wanted to post a quick update to alert all of you regarding an area of disturbed weather that has developed in the southwestern Caribbean which is associated with a tropical wave tracking westward. This tropical disturbance is expected to track west-northwestward and be located very near the coasts of Belize and Honduras by Monday. From there, this system is forecast to track into the Bay of Campeche by late Tuesday night or Wednesday morning and then inland just south of Tampico, Mexico by around Friday.

Environmental conditions are expected to be favorable for development. The only thing that is likely to stop development is this disturbanceís proximity to land. The best chance for this system to develop into either a tropical depression or tropical storm is when its in the Bay of Campeche on Wednesday and Thursday before it moves inland just south of Tampico.

It should be pointed out that the convection looks fairly organized and robust on satellite and that the amount of vorticity (defined as amount of spin) associated with this disturbance has increased. I will be monitoring this disturbance closely over the next few days and will keep you all updated.

At the very least, this disturbance will bring heavy rainfall with possible flash flooding and mudslides across Belize and northern Honduras starting on Sunday and continuing through Monday. Heavy rain with flash flooding and mudslides are then likely across central and southern Mexico starting in southern Mexico on Tuesday and spreading into central Mexico by Wednesday and Thursday.

I will have a full discussion on this tropical disturbance in the western Caribbean on Sunday morning.

The tropical wave is now approaching Belize. Should reach here tomorrow morning. Once over Belize the wave may slow down and produce several days of rainy weather. This may be the last good rain for several weeks because the air behind this wave is quite dry all the way to Africa. I am predicting 2 to 3 inches from this wave over a period of 3 days.

Tropical Disturbance In The Southwestern Caribbean May Develop Into A Tropical Depression Or A Tropical Storm As It Tracks Across The Northwestern Caribbean & The Bay Of Campeche This Week
Rob Lightbown of Crown Weather Services

Sunday, June 16, 2013 7:02 am

A tropical disturbance which seems to be developing a broad area of low pressure with it is located over the southwestern Caribbean this morning. Satellite imagery showed some deep convection firing near the coast of Honduras and Nicaragua just north of where this low pressure system is located. It is of my opinion that we may see this low pressure system reform much closer to the deep convection as we head through the day today.

Currently, environmental conditions arenít exactly favorable for development with wind shear values running at 20 to 40 knots over this system. It should be pointed out that wind shear values decrease to less than 20 knots as you near the Yucatan Peninsula and this is where this disturbance is headed over the next couple of days. I expect that we will see this system track to a position near the coast of Belize by late Monday. From there, this tropical disturbance is forecast to track into the Bay of Campeche by Tuesday night and Wednesday morning.

The best shot that this disturbance has to develop into a tropical depression or a tropical storm is when it is tracking across the Bay of Campeche towards the central coast of Mexico where environmental conditions are expected to be somewhat favorable. Additionally, this disturbance may take advantage of the shape and the topography of the coastline along the Bay of Campeche and try and spin up. This is something that has happened many times before with other tropical storms. The most likely timeframe for this to happen will be between Wednesday morning and Friday morning when it is expected to track inland into central Mexico just south of Tampico.

A couple of thoughts here: First is that we should keep an eye on an upper level trough of low pressure that is located near Bermuda and how far north this trough pulls this disturbance. It is expected that this trough of low pressure will pull out to the northeast and be replaced by high pressure by late Monday. Once this happens then this disturbance will be pushed back to the west.

Second thought is that even though none of the forecast guidance develops this disturbance, it should not be written off or discounted. It would not shock me to see this disturbance develop into a tropical storm when itís in the Bay of Campeche between Wednesday and Friday. Environmental conditions are expected to be somewhat favorable and add in the curvature and topography of the coastline along the Bay of Campeche, a system could spin up rather quickly.

Finally, this disturbance whether it develops or not is of no threat at all to the United States coastline. A strong area of high pressure over the southern United States will prevent this system from tracking northward and push it westward towards central Mexico late this week.

This disturbance is expected to bring heavy rainfall with possible flash flooding and mudslides to Belize and northern Honduras starting later today and continuing through Monday. Heavy rain with flash flooding and mudslides is then likely across central and southern Mexico starting in southern Mexico on Tuesday and spreading into central Mexico by Wednesday and Thursday.

The next tropical weather discussion will be issued on Monday morning.

Click here for the full Tropical Weather Report, updated several times a day during storms...

Tropical Disturbance In Southwest Caribbean Now Invest 93-L:

The tropical disturbance in the southwestern Caribbean has been designated Invest 93-L by the National Hurricane Center. Satellite imagery this morning continues to show some increase in thunderstorm intensity associated with this system and development into a tropical depression or a tropical storm is a distinct possibility before it tracks into Belize late Monday. Should it not become a tropical cyclone before moving into Belize, I think it stands a better shot of becoming a tropical storm when its in the Bay of Campeche from Wednesday to Friday.

It should be noted that a reconnaissance flight is scheduled to investigate this system tomorrow afternoon to see if it has become a tropical cyclone; so, stay tuned.

As I mentioned earlier this morning, Invest 93-L is expected to bring heavy rainfall with possible flash flooding and mudslides to Belize and northern Honduras starting later today and continuing through Monday. Heavy rain with flash flooding and mudslides is then likely across central and southern Mexico starting in southern Mexico on Tuesday and spreading into central Mexico by Wednesday and Thursday.

Invest 93-L Will Track Across Belize Later Today & Will Emerge In The Bay Of Campeche By Tuesday Night; Development Into A Tropical Depression Or Tropical Storm Quite Possible While Itís In The Bay Of Campeche Wednesday & Thursday:

Monday, June 17, 2013 520 am EDT/420 am CDT

Invest 93-L, which is a fairly robust tropical disturbance was located just a few miles offshore of the northern coast of Honduras early this morning. Satellite imagery showed quite a bit of thunderstorm activity associated with this disturbance and radar loops from Belize indicate that heavy rain is approaching from the east and I do expect heavy rainfall with the threat for flash flooding and mudslides across northern Honduras and Belize from today through tonight and into Tuesday.

Invest 93-L is forecast to track west-northwestward and move across Belize and the southern Yucatan Peninsula from this afternoon through Tuesday before emerging into the Bay of Campeche by Tuesday night. This is where development into a tropical depression or a tropical storm seems quite possible as environmental conditions are expected to be quite favorable with low wind shear and plenty warm ocean waters. Additionally, the shape of the coast around the Bay of Campeche seems to aid in the development of tropical cyclones.

None of the latest forecast guidance forecasts development into a tropical cyclone. The likely reason for this is that many of the forecast guidance members keeps Invest 93-L inland over southern Mexico and never forecasts it to emerge into the Bay of Campeche. As I mentioned yesterday, once this system makes it to the Bay of Campeche, I think a quick spin up into a tropical storm is quite possible and something that needs to be monitored closely.

A high pressure ridge across the southern United States will prevent Invest 93-L from tracking northward and instead push it west-northwestward across the Bay of Campeche on Wednesday & Thursday for a landfall just south of Tampico, Mexico during Friday.

Invest 93-L will bring heavy rainfall with possible flash flooding and mudslides to Belize and northern Honduras from today through tonight and into part of the day Tuesday. Heavy rain with flash flooding and mudslides is then likely across central and southern Mexico starting in southern Mexico on Tuesday and spreading into central Mexico by Wednesday and Thursday.

Finally, the next chance for tropical development still looks to be from the last weekend in June through the first week of July as the upward motion pulse of the Madden Julian Oscillation contributes to the formation of thunderstorm activity, lowering barometric pressures and potential development in the Caribbean and the Gulf of Mexico. This is something that I will be monitoring very closely over the next week or two and will keep you all updated.

The next tropical weather discussion will be issued on Tuesday morning.

Tropical Interest in the Western Caribbean

A tropical wave moving toward the Yucatan Peninsula through early this week will be monitored for possible development. The focus will shift to the southern Gulf of Mexico by midweek.

The tropical wave will be responsible for torrential rainfall from northern Nicaragua to northern Honduras through Monday morning. Tropical downpours can easily produce several inches of rain in a short amount of time. The rainfall can lead to flash flooding and mudslides in the region.

Interaction with land is expected to inhibit development before it reaches the Yucatan Monday afternoon. Though plenty of warm water is available to the system to encourage organization.

Heavy rain will shift into the Yucatan Peninsula Monday unleashing torrential downpours across Belize, Guatemala, and southern Mexico. Locally heavy rain will persist across these areas through at least Tuesday.

The tropical wave will settle into the southern Gulf of Mexico Tuesday into Wednesday. The wave will usher in a plume of high tropical moisture in the southern Gulf of Mexico which will heighten the potential for tropical development.

"There is a slight chance the system can reorganize over the southern Bay of Campeche," AccuWeather.com Expert Senior Meteorologist Dave Samuhel said. "However, increasing wind shear, an inhibitor to tropical development, and its proximity to land will limit its chances for development."

Beyond Wednesday, any tropical rains should move west into Mexico.

"No impacts are expected to be felt in the U.S. from this feature," Samuhel said.

AT 0900 AM THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO WAS ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.6 WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION WILL MOVE INLAND OVER SOUTHERN BELIZE THIS AFTERNOON. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS LIKELY BEFORE LANDFALL.

THE BOOM CREEK ROAD IN THE TOLEDO DISTRICT IS UNDER 4 FEET OF WATER AND IS IMPASSABLE AT THIS TIME. PERSONS LIVING IN FLOOD PRONE AREAS ACROSS THE COUNTRY ARE ADVISED TO BE ON THE ALERT FOR POSSIBLE FLOODING IN YOUR AREAS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS BELIZE. MOTORISTS ARE ALSO ADVISED TO EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION WHEN DRIVING ON THE HIGHWAYS AND SECONDARY ROADS.

NEMO CONTINUES TO MONITOR THE SYSTEM. STAY TUNERD TO YOUR LOCAL RADIO AND TELEVISION STATIONS FOR FURTHER ADVISORIES FROM NEMO AND THE NATIONAL METEOROLOGY SERVICE.

Tropical depression#2 formed this morning.At 9:00am the center of the system was near 16.2įN and 87.6įW or about 60mls east of Monkey River Town.Maximum sustained winds were near 35mph.The system is heading west northwest at 35mph.Little change in strength is expected before the system makes landfall today and tonight. However, some development is possible if the system emerges over the Bay of Campeche later on Tuesday.

there are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
Interests in Belize...Guatemala...and eastern Mexico should
monitor the progress of this system.

at 1100 am EDT...1500 UTC...the center of Tropical Depression Two
was estimated near latitude 16.2 north...longitude 87.6 west.
The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 13
mph...20 km/h. This general motion with some decrease in
forward speed is expected over the next couple of days. On the
forecast track...the center of the depression will move inland
over southern Belize this afternoon. The depression could
emerge into the Bay of Campeche on Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph...55 km/h...with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is likely before landfall.
Some weakening is expected as the depression moves over land
later today and tonight. Some increase in strength is possible
on Tuesday if the center emerges into the Bay of Campeche.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb...29.77 inches.

the depression is expected to produce total rainfall
accumulations of 2 to 3 inches with maximum amounts of 5 inches
across portions of Belize...Guatemala... northern Honduras and
the southern Yucatan Peninsula. These rains could cause flash
flooding...especially in mountainous areas.

gusty winds to near tropical storm force are possible
along portions of the coast of Belize through tonight.

High-resolution visible satellite images show a low-level circulation has formed in association with the tropical wave over the northwestern Caribbean Sea. The system also has organized deep convection associated with the center. Therefore the system has developed into a tropical depression. Surface observations support an initial intensity of 30 kt. The center is nearing the coast of Belize and the cyclone will have very little time for intensification prior to landfall. Some intensification is likely if the system emerges into the Bay of Campeche on Tuesday as indicated by the NHC forecast track. The official intensity forecast is close to the decay-SHIPS guidance.

The initial motion is estimated to be 290/11. Dynamical models show an east-West Ridge over the northern Gulf that weakens somewhat in a couple of days. This should lead to some decrease in forward speed during the forecast period. The official forecast is on the northern side of the guidance suite and fairly close to the GFS and ECMWF tracks.

The primary concern with this system is heavy rainfall which could
cause significant flooding over portions of Central America and
eastern Mexico.

New Depression Approaching Belize
Accuweather

Jun 17, 2013 11:59 AM

A tropical wave that we have been tracking across the Caribbean for the last few days has gained a circulation and is now classified as Tropical Depression 2. The center of the depression will move into Belize this afternoon. While no significant strengthening will occur before the center moves ashore, if it becomes any stronger it would be a tropical storm and be named Barry. The main impact of the depression will be heavy rainfall over Belize as well as portions of Mexico and Guatemala that will lead to flash flooding and mudslides.

Once ashore, the depression will remain weak and could even dissipate, but it more likely will just continue to generate heavy rainfall. By tomorrow afternoon, the center will likely move over the Bay of Campeche. This would give the depression an opportunity to strengthen again. It will have its best chance to become a named system once in this area. From there, this system will move into eastern Mexico and bring locally strong wind and very heavy rainfall that can again cause flooding and mudslides.

Tropical Depression Two Forms Near Belize

Jeff Masters

3:21 PM GMT on June 17, 2013

Tropical Depression Two has formed in the extreme Southwest Caribbean, about 60 miles east of the coast of Belize. The storm is bringing heavy rain to Belize, as seen on Belize radar, and has produced up to 6 - 8" inches of rain over eastern Nicaragua and Honduras, according to satellite estimates. The center of circulation will be over water for about 4 - 6 hours today, before moving ashore over Belize. This may be enough time for the storm to become Tropical Storm Barry with 40 mph winds. Satellite loops show that the system is well-organized, has plenty of spin, has good upper-level outflow to the north, and has a large of amount of heavy thunderstorm activity that is increasing in intensity and areal converge. Wind shear is a moderate 15 - 20 knots, and ocean temperatures are warm, 28 - 29įC. The Hurricane Hunter mission for Monday has been canceled, as the storm will be ashore by the time they reach it.

Figure 1. Morning satellite image of TD 2.

Forecast for TD 2TD 2 will cross over the Yucatan Peninsula on Monday night and Tuesday, and may emerge into the extreme southern Gulf of Mexico--the Bay of Campeche--on Tuesday night or Wednesday. At that point, the models continue to predict a slow west-northwest motion, bringing the center of TD 2 ashore into Mexico between Veracruz and Tampico on Thursday. Wind shear is expected to remain moderate through Wednesday. The Bay of Campeche is a region where the topography aids the spin-up of tropical cyclones, so I expect this storm will become a tropical storm if its center moves over water in the Bay of Campeche. The center may remain just inland, though, keeping the storm from developing. There is no indication from the models that this system will affect the U.S., as a strong ridge of high pressure over the U.S. during the coming week should keep the tropical wave trapped in the southern Gulf of Mexico, keeping all the storm's rainfall confined to Mexico.