Twitter not reliable predictor of election outcomes -study

NEW YORK, Feb 16 (Reuters) - In politics, it is said that
all press is good press. But that does not necessarily apply to
tweets.

In fact, it is difficult to predict the outcome of an
election based on the amount of Twitter buzz a candidate gets,
according to a study from the Social Science Computer Review.

The study, which focused on the 2013 German federal
election, found that Twitter data was a more accurate measure of
the level of interest in candidates rather than the level of
support they will receive.

"Negative events, such as political scandals, as well as
positively evaluated events, such as accomplishments, can
(both)underlie attention for a party or candidate," said the
study, published on Monday.

Yet scandals and accomplishments affect the level of support
for a candidate in completely different ways.

"The analysis does not support the simple 'more tweets, more
votes' formula," the study found.

For example, a video clip of a candidate's campaign gaffe
broadcast on the nightly news might lead to a spike in Twitter
attention, but likely not result in more overall political
support, according to the study.

"The daily volume of Twitter messages referring to
candidates or parties fluctuates heavily depending on the events
of the day - such as televised leaders' debates, high-profile
interviews with candidates - or the coverage of political
controversies and scandals," the study said.

The data also showed that Twitter users did not necessarily
reflect the demographics of the population as a whole. In the
United States, social media platforms like Twitter and Yik Yak
are often more popular among millennial voters.

"Twitter's user base is highly skewed and far from being
representative of the population at large," the study said.

Other data showed Google might be a more reliable indicator
of voter support.

Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders, respective winners of last
week's Republican and Democratic New Hampshire primaries, were
also the two parties' top-searched-for candidates in the state,
according to a report from Bloomberg last week.

Republican and Democratic contenders are vying for their
parties' nominations for the Nov. 8 election to succeed
President Barack Obama.
(Reporting by Amy Tennery; Editing by Peter Cooney)