Statistical model of Delaware: Coons 37, Castle 34, O’Donnell 29

posted at 3:37 pm on September 25, 2010 by Allahpundit

Nate Silver took a stab at it but even he doesn’t sound terribly confident in his numbers. People are starving for a poll showing the effect of a Castle write-in bid on the race, though, so until we see some sort of proper survey next week, this’ll have to do.

The bad news for Republicans, obviously: Castle wouldn’t necessarily tip the race towards her, as I and others thought it might. The good news: It dramatically improves her chances, cutting Coons’s 16-point lead over her in the last CNN poll neatly in half. And of course the model doesn’t take into account the strategic considerations that Delaware voters will face if the race is this tight on November 2. My sense of strategic voting is that it benefits the candidate people see as the lesser of two evils; given the media push to paint O’Donnell as a crank because of the “witchcraft” nonsense etc, the lesser evil here to most voters is probably the cipher Coons, which means some moderates who are in Castle’s column right now might break for the Democrat once they’re in the booth simply in the interests of ensuring O’Donnell’s defeat. Then again, maybe Castle’s name recognition is sufficiently high in Delaware that moderates and indies will stick with him to the bitter end, thinking he can pull the upset and making it a true cliffhanger on election night.

Two interesting points from Silver:

Mr. Castle could receive a decent number of Democratic votes. Polling that pitted him head-to-head in a (now hypothetical) one-on-one matchup against the Democratic nominee, Chris Coons, had shown him getting about one-third of the Democratic vote. On the other hand, Mr. Coons has perhaps become a little bit more entrenched than the Democrat in Alaska, Scott McAdams, simply because — in contast to Mr. McAdams — Mr. Coons had become the overwhelming favorite to win his race the moment that Ms. O’Donnell became the nominee. There may be an element of loss aversion among Democratic supporters of Mr. Coons, who could be less likely to support Mr. Castle in practice than they might have been in theory…

One dynamic that may be more favorable to Mr. Castle is that it seems conceivable he could win with as little as 35 percent of the vote. It seems probable to me that Ms. O’Donnell’s support is going to hover in the area of 30 percent — not a lot higher, not a lot lower — which was about the percentage of voters who had a favorable impression of her in the Public Policy Polling survey. That would leave Mr. Castle and Mr. Coons to fight over the remaining 70 percent of the electorate, making half that total — 35 percent — the magic number.

Yeah, unlike Alaska, which has always been expected to stay red, the Dems now have a legit chance of flipping a seat that was headed towards the GOP back into their column. Democrats who like Castle might be extra reluctant to part with that by defecting to the RINO. The possibility of a 35/34/31 race is pure gold for O’Donnell supporters specifically and Republicans generally, though, since the margin is so thin that a massive GOTV push at the very end could lead to her pulling the upset. Specifically, if she can peel off an extra 10 percent of independents from both Coons and Castle — and she’s got $2.5 million in the bank right now with which to do it — the race would be an almost even three-way split. The macro-point, though, is that the specific numbers don’t matter all that much right now. However they shake out, Castle’s entry into the race would push roughly 65 percent of the votes in Delaware into the Republican column — not enough to guarantee victory for either him or O’Donnell, ironically, but better than the 50-55 percent that are currently predicted to go Democratic. If you prefer either O’Donnell or Castle to Coons, if only for the sake of maximizing the odds of a Republican majority in the Senate, then you probably want Castle in to bring that about. If you’re in the “true conservative or bust” camp, then obviously you don’t. I think that’ll be the only real takeaway from whatever the polls show next week.

For your viewing pleasure, here’s Coulter jabbing at sore-loser RINOs a few nights ago on Hannity’s show while helping to lower expectations about taking back the Senate. As you’ve probably already seen elsewhere, Bill Maher’s latest archived clip of O’Donnell shows her arguing in the 1990s that evolution is a myth. That might hurt a tiny bit more in a blue state like Delaware, but have a look at this Gallup poll taken last year on the anniversary of Darwin’s birthday. How much is it going to hurt really?

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If you prefer either O’Donnell or Castle to Coons, if only for the sake of maximizing the odds of a Republican majority in the Senate, then you probably want Castle in to bring that about. If you’re in the “true conservative or bust” camp, then obviously you don’t. I think that’ll be the only real takeaway from whatever the polls show next week.

He should definitely do it, cus I think he will win. O’Donnell is a nut, and isn’t qualified for the office.

Chudi on September 25, 2010 at 3:43 PM

Oh STFU…

I don’t think the initial polling will mean much… this will be a very complex race that could go any way on election day… there will be plenty of people going into the voting booth conflict who to vote for.

Write in contests fail the majority of time because the name is not on the ballot. People are lazy, they forget to write the name in, they may get in the booth and when faced with coons or O’Donnell not seeing castle’s name would pull the vote for coons or O’Donnell. people lose write-in contests because voters do not like to write in candidates……this is why Micky Mouse doesn’t win more elections.

If Castle gets in the result will be O’donell 45% Castle 35% and Coons 25% or O’donnell 45% Coons 35% and Castle 25%

Same as the Miller/Lisa race is going to end up. But all you Rino’s keep on keeping on. And don’t forget keep hope alive!

If Castle stays out the final is going to be O’Donnell 51-52% to coons 48-49%

unseen on September 25, 2010 at 4:02 PM

That’s optimistic, to say the least. If Castle goes in, she won’t get more than 40% at most and if he doesn’t, she still won’t get over 40%. Look at her numbers with Independents, plus the fact that she doesn’t even get 75% of Republicans to support her. Where would she get the votes to get to 51-52%? Also, your numbers add up to 105%.

That’s optimistic, to say the least. If Castle goes in, she won’t get more than 40% at most and if he doesn’t, she still won’t get over 40%. Look at her numbers with Independents, plus the fact that she doesn’t even get 75% of Republicans to support her. Where would she get the votes to get to 51-52%? Also, your numbers add up to 105%.

HeroesforGhosts on September 25, 2010 at 4:30 PM

This model is just made up.

67% of both parties will magically back their respective candidate and 30% of both will back Castle and 3% will of both will back their opponent?

That’s optimistic, to say the least. If Castle goes in, she won’t get more than 40% at most and if he doesn’t, she still won’t get over 40%. Look at her numbers with Independents, plus the fact that she doesn’t even get 75% of Republicans to support her. Where would she get the votes to get to 51-52%? Also, your numbers add up to 105%.

HeroesforGhosts on September 25, 2010 at 4:30 PM

52-51% because she will get the votes for the simple reason that at the end of the day its a two person choice. yes meant 40% 35% and 25% in three way race.

the polls are showing what people hope. Many castle supporters are telling pollsters they won’t vote for O’donnell because they still want castle to get in.

Many castle supporters are telling pollsters they won’t vote for O’donnell because they still want castle to get in.

unseen on September 25, 2010 at 4:41 PM

A Castle supporter saying they won’t vote for O’Donnell also doesn’t translate to a vote for Coons. It may translate to not voting at all. It also doesn’t take into account someone who is upset if Castle starts a write-in campaign and then decides to vote O’Donnell, or choose not to vote for Castle due to his conduct.

If you prefer either O’Donnell or Castle to Coons, if only for the sake of maximizing the odds of a Republican majority in the Senate, then you probably want Castle in to bring that about. If you’re in the “true conservative or bust” camp, then obviously you don’t. I think that’ll be the only real takeaway from whatever the polls show next week.

Nope. The only takeaway will be that the Tea Party is an historically ignorant, nihilistic, and self-defeating phenomenon which WON’T LAST.

A Castle supporter saying they won’t vote for O’Donnell also doesn’t translate to a vote for Coons. It may translate to not voting at all. It also doesn’t take into account someone who is upset if Castle starts a write-in campaign and then decides to vote O’Donnell, or choose not to vote for Castle due to his conduct.

sharrukin on September 25, 2010 at 4:45 PM

exactly. my point was the polls are nothing but hope/estimations at this point in this race. too many reasons why the voters would answer the questions differently.

This is not a straigth up normal race. the fact that castle is playing with a write in makes the results of any poll on a two way race or even a three way race suspect to say the least.

Nope. The only takeaway will be that the Tea Party is an historically ignorant, nihilistic, and self-defeating phenomenon which WON’T LAST.

bifidis on September 25, 2010 at 4:49 PM

Well most Tea Party folks certainly hope that they end up being self-defeating by reducing the size of government to the point that they are no longer needed. Not wanting power over others is something you will never understand of course.

Your side is going to lose and lose big. You should ask yourself why that is, but you won’t because self knowledge is something you must avoid to believe the nonsense you do.

Your side is going to lose and lose big. You should ask yourself why that is, but you won’t because self knowledge is something you must avoid to believe the nonsense you do.

sharrukin on September 25, 2010 at 4:56 PM

Yes, it’s complete nonsense that O’Donnell is the kooky face of the Tea Party — an utterly insane idea hatched by bearded, Che-worshipping lefties and their MSM protectors. How did we ever think up such nutty things?

O’Donnell is a nut and will lose the election. The futile attempts to defend her are just that: futile. All of the so called true conservatives will look like the fools they are. You’ll have wasted two millions dollars on a charlatan. Great job.

The poll fails to take into account the “physics” related to the burden of writing-in a candidate’s name in the booth. Newton’s Third Law’s influence will dampen dramatically the number of Castle votes, and not simply in random fashion –there will be a sharp skew factor.

A certain category of voters are already sharpening extra pencils for Election Day –these constitute the most definite write-in tallies, but who are they? Not Democrats –they’re the fervent Castle Republicans, who in their entire number could rally in a comfortably intimate way in a country club grill room outside Wilmington. All these votes would never have gone O’Donnell, nor Coons.

Another category is probably in a contemplative mood. Not strong Castle folks, but not for Coons, and much against O’Donnell, so intrigued by the idea of a write-in. These folks are the large majority of those in the poll counted for Castle, but not discounted there for Newton’s inertia. The number must be reduced first to whose who’ll show up to vote –I’d factor that at 50%, max. Of those who show, there is energy required actually to have the pencil, get it out, write the name and properly shade the oval –with little emotional force in store. The bow wave against the write-in tally will be the focus of many individual minds on the stark reality that they’re surely wasting their vote. Those physics scale the effect back at least another 50% of 50% –away from Castle. But the other partion is certainly likely by that date on the calendar to feel, you know, Christine is the one most likely to stir things up and I’ve actually grown to like her –but never to admit it. The path of least resistance is the O’Donnell Oval for these voters.

That accounts for 50% of 50%, or 25% of Castle’s 34% –8.25%, to be precise. Added to Christine’s 29% and you’re at 37.25%, and she wins in a squeaker.

She wins by a squeaker, that is, if the turnout model in the poll is correct. If they’re way off –a good likelihood, since the most powerful force at work lately has enthusiasm accelerating the mass of regular folks in Delaware– an “unexpected” phalanx of O’Donnell voters with huge momentum will put her over big.

If “we the people” ever get to experience true conservative government, it will be lights out for the Democrats. Come on Delaware, get on this train! You can vote her out after one term if you want, but at least you will have taken part in transforming congress.

Insanity: doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results.
Albert Einstein

ELECTION NOTE
I’m looking forward to getting back to the U.S. and weighing in on November’s fun and frolics. But a quick word on Christine O’Donnell, the GOP Senate candidate from Delaware whom the politico-media establishment have decided is this season’s easiest conservative target. If I understand their current plan to save the Dems, it rests on the proposition that America is about to be delivered into the care of a coven of witches who want to take away your right to masturbate. Two thoughts: First, any young woman (as she then was) willing to go on MTV, before a live audience, and attack masturbation certainly doesn’t want for courage. As to her alleged dabbling with “witchcraft”, so what? Several readers suggest Ms O’Donnell use Sinatra’s “Witchcraft” as her campaign theme song. No, no, no. She should use the theme from “Bewitched”: All she had to do was twitch her nose, and Mike Castle vanished. If it’s a choice between Elizabeth Montgomery and Democrats cackling as they toss another trillion dollars into their bubbling cauldron, it’s no contest.

Always loved the lyric to “Bewitched”, which you never hear. If Ms O’Donnell wins, I’ll be singing it on election night.

I don’t care who’s a nut or a RINO, or a one-eyed-one-horned flying purple people eater. Delaware voters voted for Joe Biden for all those many years. O’Donnell wasn’t the presumed nominee until a month before the general election, and prior to that O’Donnell was the sacrificial lamb against Biden. Which had to have produced some negatives in DE.

The numbers against Coons are out of “wave” range and into “miracle” range. While it’s tacky for Castle to try a write-in campaign, it may (note MAY–write-ins are almost universally overestimated), it might help O’Donnell lose by less.

Mark Steyn on O’Donnell: … She should use the theme from “Bewitched”: All she had to do was twitch her nose, and Mike Castle vanished. If it’s a choice between Elizabeth Montgomery and Democrats cackling as they toss another trillion dollars into their bubbling cauldron, it’s no contest.

Always loved the lyric to “Bewitched”, which you never hear. If Ms O’Donnell wins, I’ll be singing it on election night.
Schadenfreude on September 25, 2010 at 6:12 PM

Bewitched, Bewitched,
You’ve got me in your spell.
Bewitched, Bewitched,
You know your craft so well.
Before I knew what I was doing
I looked in your eyes
That brand of woo you’ve been brewin’
Took me by surprise.

You witch, you witch,
One thing is for sure.
That stuff you pitch
Just hasn’t got a cure.
My heart was under lock and key,
But somehow it got unhitched.
I never thought that I could be had
But now I’m caught and I’m kinda glad
To be Bewitched.

If the trolls, liberal moonbats all, think that COD ‘cannot possibly win’, why would they excoriate us for ‘wasting’ our money on her? Wouldn’t it be good for all the little progressives if we dumped every dollar we had into Delaware, leaving no money to support other Republicans?

Well most Tea Party folks certainly hope that they end up being self-defeating by reducing the size of government to the point that they are no longer needed.

sharrukin on September 25, 2010 at 4:56 PM

You know, there’s another movement out there with the exact same goal (reducing the size of government to the point that it is no longer needed) and with very similar reasons for people getting behind it (the elite are screwing everyone else).

Funny thing is that it’s never worked, especially not with it’s supposed goal on government reduction.

Until the Tea Party and ‘conservatives’ give up on the idea that one of the roles of government is to maintain a status of permanent war and/or occupation encompassing half the globe…you’ll NEVER make our gov’t smaller. You’ll just fund different causes than the liberals.

Until the Tea Party and ‘conservatives’ give up on the idea that one of the roles of government is to maintain a status of permanent war and/or occupation encompassing half the globe…you’ll NEVER make our gov’t smaller. You’ll just fund different causes than the liberals.

Dark-Star on September 25, 2010 at 11:25 PM

Many conservatives are not into the idea of a permanent world occupation. That’s just a Democratic talking point and most of that expansion was carried out by some of the least conservative presidents like Bush.

That said the defense outlays are hardly the main problem. Unfunded liabilities in social programs are the 800 gorilla in the room.

1. New Castle County residents overall are not enthused by Coons because he has raised property taxes 25% since becoming County Executive.

2. Castle is also from NC County so most indies would probably go for him v. Coons along with the hoity-toity Greenville area (Wilmington North to PA line) voters of both parties.

3. O’Donnell will be hurt by the non-belief in evolution clip. Remember that most of northern Delaware is populated by scientists and engineers who work for the likes of Gore and DuPont along with college professors and their students. None of these will like the “anti-intellectual” bent of O’Donnell’s comments.

4. The rest of the State doesn’t have nearly the number of votes to make up for NC County UNLESS there is minimum turn-out in NC County. There will definitely be huge turnout in Kent and Sussex Counties for O’Donnell just as there was in the primary and look for southern Delaware indies and dems to be more likely to support O’Donnell than Coons or Castle.

If O’Donnell loses it will be because ‘moderate’ Republicans won’t play by the same rules they expect from conservative republicans. If Castle would have won in the primary you all would have been whining that we should all stand together, hold our noses and vote for the lesser of two evils. Why doesn’t this rule apply now? Delaware Republicans have spoken. Castle was soundly defeated and good riddance. If you guys spent more time attacking Coons rather than O’Donnell (who is just as qualified as any other Bozo in Washington, by the way) then she might have a shot at winning; forget about the polls. The polls said that John Kerry was supposed to be the president following Bush’s one term.

Also, I wouldn’t pay any attention at all to reports about O’Donnell’s stability. Listen to her; don’t listen to people who will go out of their way to dig up dirt on a candidate they don’t like and then make stuff up when they can’t find anything.

As you’ve probably already seen elsewhere, Bill Maher’s latest archived clip of O’Donnell shows her arguing in the 1990s that evolution is a myth. That might hurt a tiny bit more in a blue state like Delaware, but have a look at this Gallup poll taken last year on the anniversary of Darwin’s birthday. How much is it going to hurt really

?

Virtually none at all. Most people don’t get really exercized about the question of evolution. And why should they? In practical terms, your opinion of the origin of man has less effect on your life than, say, your opinions about the origin of Christianity, or the nature of God.

The stakes are so high, the crap shoot is all that is left. Incumbents have generally disgraced themselves and most show little evidence of reforming.

My strategy this cycle is vote for the candidate who says they will vote your needs, and who does not have a record of voting against your needs. Promises to change are worth less than promises from an unproven candidate

As for Castle, he has one goal, to stop O Donnell from being elected to vote in the lame duck session. The special election status of Deleware makes it the most critical election for the near term. It is obvious the RINO GOP would rather have Castle or the DEM voting lame duck than O Donnell

What needs are driving the RINO GOP do not matter. It is enough to know they are attempting to avoid adding votes from the rabid base in their one last great chance to push whatever bill through before the new conservatives get sworn in