Oddsmakers, bettors like Alabama's chances for national title

Published: Thursday, July 10, 2014 at 11:00 p.m.

Last Modified: Thursday, July 10, 2014 at 11:27 p.m.

Alabama will have a new quarterback this fall. It will have a new offensive coordinator. It lost team captains on both sides of the ball. There are issues in the secondary, too.

The oddsmakers in Las Vegas, the most nonpartisan experts of all, don't seem to mind.

And so far, bettors don't either.

Jay Rood, the vice president of race and sports at MGM Resorts, has set Alabama's odds to win the 2015 national championship at 6-1 (a $100 bet on Alabama would win $600). Alabama is tied with Ohio State and Oklahoma with the second lowest odds to win just behind the betting favorite, defending national champion Florida State (5-1).

It's not that Rood, who oversees the betting lines at 12 Nevada sportbooks including the MGM Grand, Mirage, Bellagio and Mandalay Bay, and his colleagues are unaware of the question marks surrounding the Crimson Tide this season. It's just that with Alabama, they know better than to react to annual roster turnover.

Because of Alabama's track record, a talent-rich roster and Nick Saban, its decorated head coach, sportsbooks believe no team in the nation is more immune to a few preseason concerns than the Crimson Tide.

“Alabama totally overrides everything,” Rood said. “Saban knows how to recruit, he knows how to develop talent, and they have quite a few returning starters on offense. That's where most of (Alabama's high regard in Vegas) comes from; it's the foundation that is already in place and what's built on top of that.”

The betting public has reinforced his belief: The team with the most money backing a title run at Rood's sportsbooks this offseason? Alabama.

Rood said that he has taken the most total bets (individual bets of any value) on Ohio State — with Alabama in a close second — but that the total dollar figure bet on the Crimson Tide is the largest of all.

Florida State, the betting favorite, is “a distant third” on total tickets and dollar amount with Oklahoma (6-1) in fourth.

Part of the influx of support is, simply, the belief that Alabama can win it. Another part, especially among professional bettors, is value. Since Alabama's rash of success began in 2009, the preseason odds on Alabama to win the title have been slightly stingier for bettors prior to this year.

“I can't imagine they've been more than 9-2 the last five years or so with us,” Rood said. “I would venture that this is as high as (Alabama) been the last 4-5 years and it's still only 6-1.”

At Bovada, an offshore sportsbook, Alabama is also at 6-1 with only Florida State (11-2) as a heavier favorite. In the summer before each season, Bovada had Alabama as a 3-1 favorite to win the 2014 BCS title, 11-to-2 to win the 2013 title and 11-to-2 to win the 2012 crown. That makes this year's 6-1 the highest odds on the Crimson Tide in the past four seasons.

Typically, losing a quarterback - Alabama will have to replace three-year starter and Heisman finalist AJ McCarron – equals a significant hit on a team's title odds. For example, if Florida State lost Heisman Trophy winner Jameis Winston before this season, Rood estimates the Seminoles would drop from 5-1 to 15-1.

“Whoever the Alabama quarterback in waiting is will probably be light years better than 70 percent of starters in college football. That's not a concern,” Rood said.

Then there's the Saban factor. His presence alone will keep the Crimson Tide among the nation's top tier.

“Overall, it's the development that he brings,” Rood said. “He brings in men and makes better men. They're able to recruit physical specimens that are already considered men while other schools are having to develop them. Alabama and eight or 10 other programs can say that, but obviously Nick Saban has a magic wand that works pretty well.”

Las Vegas and the betting public remain bullish on Alabama, and if history holds true, so will the media.

Other than Alabama, no team has been ranked in the top 10 of the preseason Associated Press poll in each of the last four seasons. The Crimson Tide has been ranked in the top two of each poll.

Alabama is a shoo-in to crack the top 10 and has a decent chance to make it five straight starts in the top two when the poll is released next month.

If those preseason concerns blow up into major problems, things can change. But for now, Rood will wait for Alabama to prove him wrong.

“If they come out and struggle in the first game or two, and that's glaringly obvious the first week or two than obviously we make adjustments” Rood said. “But until then we have to assume they will continue to be as good as they've always been.”

<p>Alabama will have a new quarterback this fall. It will have a new offensive coordinator. It lost team captains on both sides of the ball. There are issues in the secondary, too.</p><p>The oddsmakers in Las Vegas, the most nonpartisan experts of all, don't seem to mind. </p><p>And so far, bettors don't either. </p><p>Jay Rood, the vice president of race and sports at MGM Resorts, has set Alabama's odds to win the 2015 national championship at 6-1 (a $100 bet on Alabama would win $600). Alabama is tied with Ohio State and Oklahoma with the second lowest odds to win just behind the betting favorite, defending national champion Florida State (5-1).</p><p>It's not that Rood, who oversees the betting lines at 12 Nevada sportbooks including the MGM Grand, Mirage, Bellagio and Mandalay Bay, and his colleagues are unaware of the question marks surrounding the Crimson Tide this season. It's just that with Alabama, they know better than to react to annual roster turnover. </p><p>Because of Alabama's track record, a talent-rich roster and Nick Saban, its decorated head coach, sportsbooks believe no team in the nation is more immune to a few preseason concerns than the Crimson Tide.</p><p>“Alabama totally overrides everything,” Rood said. “Saban knows how to recruit, he knows how to develop talent, and they have quite a few returning starters on offense. That's where most of (Alabama's high regard in Vegas) comes from; it's the foundation that is already in place and what's built on top of that.”</p><p>The betting public has reinforced his belief: The team with the most money backing a title run at Rood's sportsbooks this offseason? Alabama.</p><p>Rood said that he has taken the most total bets (individual bets of any value) on Ohio State — with Alabama in a close second — but that the total dollar figure bet on the Crimson Tide is the largest of all.</p><p>Florida State, the betting favorite, is “a distant third” on total tickets and dollar amount with Oklahoma (6-1) in fourth.</p><p>Part of the influx of support is, simply, the belief that Alabama can win it. Another part, especially among professional bettors, is value. Since Alabama's rash of success began in 2009, the preseason odds on Alabama to win the title have been slightly stingier for bettors prior to this year.</p><p>“I can't imagine they've been more than 9-2 the last five years or so with us,” Rood said. “I would venture that this is as high as (Alabama) been the last 4-5 years and it's still only 6-1.”</p><p>At Bovada, an offshore sportsbook, Alabama is also at 6-1 with only Florida State (11-2) as a heavier favorite. In the summer before each season, Bovada had Alabama as a 3-1 favorite to win the 2014 BCS title, 11-to-2 to win the 2013 title and 11-to-2 to win the 2012 crown. That makes this year's 6-1 the highest odds on the Crimson Tide in the past four seasons.</p><p>Typically, losing a quarterback - Alabama will have to replace three-year starter and Heisman finalist AJ McCarron – equals a significant hit on a team's title odds. For example, if Florida State lost Heisman Trophy winner Jameis Winston before this season, Rood estimates the Seminoles would drop from 5-1 to 15-1. </p><p>“Whoever the Alabama quarterback in waiting is will probably be light years better than 70 percent of starters in college football. That's not a concern,” Rood said.</p><p>Then there's the Saban factor. His presence alone will keep the Crimson Tide among the nation's top tier.</p><p>“Overall, it's the development that he brings,” Rood said. “He brings in men and makes better men. They're able to recruit physical specimens that are already considered men while other schools are having to develop them. Alabama and eight or 10 other programs can say that, but obviously Nick Saban has a magic wand that works pretty well.”</p><p>Las Vegas and the betting public remain bullish on Alabama, and if history holds true, so will the media. </p><p>Other than Alabama, no team has been ranked in the top 10 of the preseason Associated Press poll in each of the last four seasons. The Crimson Tide has been ranked in the top two of each poll.</p><p>Alabama is a shoo-in to crack the top 10 and has a decent chance to make it five straight starts in the top two when the poll is released next month.</p><p>If those preseason concerns blow up into major problems, things can change. But for now, Rood will wait for Alabama to prove him wrong.</p><p>“If they come out and struggle in the first game or two, and that's glaringly obvious the first week or two than obviously we make adjustments” Rood said. “But until then we have to assume they will continue to be as good as they've always been.”</p><p>-Reach D.C. Reeves at 205-722-0196 or dc@tidesports.com.</p>