Weather Adds Premium to New-Crop Corn

While recent rain and snow have kept Midwest farmers from planting corn, the situation isn’t all bad, market experts say.

"Probably what’s more important is what happens after we get it planted," Chip Nellinger of Blue Reef Agri-Marketing tells U.S. Farm Report’s marketing roundtable. "Do we continue to get good rains, and does it stay, you know, average temperatures and not get hot, especially during pollination? So we’re going to get the crop in the ground. However, it is the slowest planted pace in history for corn, and I think the weather to some extent is already putting a little premium in the new-crop corn market for corn. Even though we’re not rallying sharply, I think that is giving us some weather premium in there."

Going forward, that means selling is possible yet challenging.

"The No. 1 problem last year was that it was hot and dry," says Tom Grisafi of Indiana Grain Company. "This year, it’s cold and wet and farmers are complaining that they’re flooded out or that they have snow up in Minnesota, I have Minnesota farmers calling me often and almost in tears. But the very thing they hoped we wouldn’t have this year is a drought. So as far as a speculator, it creates opportunities. But we’re at that real unique stage where we don’t quite have the seed in the ground, so you’re speculating on something that’s not even planted. You could have the best hybrid in the world, but if it’s sitting in a bag in a shed, it’s not going to do real well. That’s what the market’s focused on this week."

Also during this week’s edition, Nellinger and Grisafi address how rising stocks could affect the market, why computers can be faulted for some early trading on reports and how to protect yourself against volatility.