Mixed signals

John Fund looks at detailed voting data from last year’s election and finds good news for Republicans. Certainly, the news is good when it comes to the House of Representatives. There, the numbers suggest that Republican prospects for picking up seats are much better than Democratic prospects because so many Democrats continue to hold seats in areas where President Bush showed strength in the presidential race. The data also confirm President Bush’s strong showing among Hispanic voters. But that’s a two-edge sword for Republicans since, as Fund notes, Bush’s popularity may not transfer readily to other Republican presidential candidates. While Bush’s Hispanic supporters like to say they support Bush because he respects them, not because of his immigration policies, it’s not clear whether these voters would find that Bush (or a less sympathetic candidate) respects them if he took a harder line on immigration.