I worked for a avionics company for a short time, and we were looking at slides from a high-level executive on the future of our systems. The very last iteration (estimated at 10-20+ years out) was a series of boxes that only communicated wirelessly (that being the boxes on the plane talking via wireless technologies). Every single engineer in the room had the same response: no. It sounds cool, it has some advantages, yes, but in the world of systems that keep planes in the air, it will NEVER happen.

I see the same thing happening with cloud enthusiasts. There are advantages, and even some situations where it will dominate, but it will never replace major computing systems.

First off, as people have mentioned, you give up control of your data...I don't think that's entirely true, but you're certainly giving someone else access to your data, and unless all law (domestic and international) advances a lot, I think that too many businesses will simply pass out of distrust. Secondly, there are too many systems under the hood of these enterprise systems that need specialized care. Even with dedicated teams, updating engineering tools launch with issues that may not be resolved in a week. On top of all of that, protections on DoD type stuff will prevent adoption, and there are plenty of companies with some sort of interest in government contracts who would be subject to the same security needs, and that often gets spread to all business units, not just those dealing with government stuff.

Don't get me wrong, having cloud tools is cool, and it will be nice to have in some things, like having your game saves and preferences saved online. But you won't see the cloud take over everything.

"A life is like a garden. Perfect moments can be had, but not preserved, except in memory. LLAP"

I like cloud software in the sense of Report Builder that is a server hosted software that downloads the application to run on the local PC but never actually installs. The data is never transmitted to said server, but the server manages all the software updates etc.

Adobe is doing it.Autodesk is doing it.Microsoft is doing it.Apple is doing it.Amazon it doing it.Netflix is doing it.Google is doing it.

The cloud already has replaced stand alone software. Perhaps the question was supposed to ask if it will replace it completely, to which I would guess it will not do so entirely because some [paranoid | sensible] people will always avoid it.

flip-mode wrote:Adobe is doing it.Autodesk is doing it.Microsoft is doing it.Apple is doing it.Amazon it doing it.Netflix is doing it.Google is doing it.

The cloud already has replaced stand alone software. Perhaps the question was supposed to ask if it will replace it completely, to which I would guess it will not do so entirely because some [paranoid | sensible] people will always avoid it.

the paranoid won't have a choice soon... at least for some types of applications.

superjawes wrote:First off, as people have mentioned, you give up control of your data...I don't think that's entirely true, but you're certainly giving someone else access to your data,

Not just that. You're also counting on that "someone else" to not shutter their operation without warning due to financial difficulties, or get forcibly shut down for alleged copyright infringement by other users. You're also trusting that their systems and procedures are robust enough to not mangle or lose your data. I would say you are definitely giving up a fair bit of control.

The cloud services provider may very well do a better job than you would, but it's mostly out of your hands.

The years just pass like trains. I wave, but they don't slow down.-- Steven Wilson

superjawes wrote:First off, as people have mentioned, you give up control of your data...I don't think that's entirely true, but you're certainly giving someone else access to your data,

Not just that. You're also counting on that "someone else" to not shutter their operation without warning due to financial difficulties, or get forcibly shut down for alleged copyright infringement by other users. You're also trusting that their systems and procedures are robust enough to not mangle or lose your data. I would say you are definitely giving up a fair bit of control.

The cloud services provider may very well do a better job than you would, but it's mostly out of your hands.

Good point. It could even pose problems by forming another tech bubble that will wipe out other companies when it bursts, and, related to my security point, one successful attack could compromise a lot of corporate/financial/trade secret data.

"A life is like a garden. Perfect moments can be had, but not preserved, except in memory. LLAP"

Another cloud enthusiast chiming in… I think the concerns raised in this discussion are legitimate, but as others have mentioned, cloud computing is much more widespread than many people realize. As a developer, I’m coming across more and more categories of tools that are moving to the cloud and can simplify the development process - for example, take a look at this post about 43 cloud services for application developers, and that isn’t even a complete list, it misses categories like cloud storage like dropbox, box, etc., geo-targeting (like ipligence or iptolocation), or CDNs, just to name a few. So as a developer it’s becoming more and more difficult to ignore the cloud and to stay efficient you need to take advantage of at least some of these new services.

However, as mentioned previously, laws and regulations are lagging behind (which actually makes sense if you consider the rapid development of cloud computing and the inherent ‘slowness’ of judicial processes, but still…) and people /organizations should not just decide to “move to the cloud” without seriously considering if cloud solutions are the best solution for their needs, and if so then what cloud computing offerings are available and what are their policies regarding data security and backup, up / down time, pricing, and licensing.

I’ll conclude by saying that despite my personal inclination for the cloud, I don’t believe it will replace standalone software because businesses and individuals have different requirements and considerations when it comes to their IT systems, as well as different beliefs regarding the cloud environment.

No. Just you try and sell me something that when it starts to get a little bit hot turns into thin air!!!

As a user of very complex, very security-centric software, that needs high availability and ridiculous encryption in my work life I would NEVER trust cloud computing to do what our servers do. As a convenience for some non-important services in my personal life, sure I'll dabble in some, but I won't trust them or use them for anything important or that isn't backed up elsewhere.

As I've stated.. it is inevitable. Adobe has now gone cloud ONLY not just cloud optional. Microsoft will be moving that direction as well with at least some of its products. Many other companies will follow suit.

the Adobe Creative Cloud seems like an ok deal. I wish they'd have a 3 or 5 app model rather than a 1 or all. I just signed up today and downloaded everything. $30/month for owners of previous versions that qualify. So, I'll get a year for 30/month at least.

I suspect that some people think of cloud-only as running only in the cloud, which doesn't need to be the case.Adobe example is a good one. All applications are still installed & run locally. I suspect they will move more and more to the cloud as it makes sense but their model is a very good one.