Tipping point for online retail…

Online shopping, which presently represents 19% of retail sales, will account for more than 50% in the next ten years, according to a report commissioned by law firm Womble Bond Dickinson.

‘The Digital Tipping Point’ reveals that this growth will be powered by three primary factors: the changing demographic of the UK adult population, the development of faster, cheaper in-home deliveries and fewer physical stores.

Some of
the main areas covered in the report are outlined below.

Digital natives:
Gen Z and Millennials will make up half of adult consumers in 10 years

As the UK
adult population evolves over the next decade the shopping habits of younger
groups will become more dominant. The research conducted by Retail Economics
showed that 62% of 16-24 year olds (Gen Z) shop online at least every fortnight
(compared with just 29% aged over 65 years), averaging around three online
purchases per month. Millennials also spend the highest proportion online
currently (22.1%), averaging £42.32 per online transaction and spending £110.45
online each month.

Over half
(53%) of Gen Z consumers said smartphones influenced them most in terms of awareness
of new retailers/brands compared with just 3% of those aged over 65, revealing
how much more online marketing impacts younger adults. However almost a quarter
of Gen Zs also said they are more likely to do shopping in high streets and
shopping centres, highlighting the complexity of the customer journey and the
importance of shopping experiences for these younger consumers.

The top
three factors that would accelerate online shopping for consumers are cheaper
(47%) and faster (26%) delivery and easier returns (26%), all of which are key
areas of investment for retailers looking to own more of the digital market.
Again, easier returns are more important for Gen Z (28%) and Millennials (30%)
than any other age group, highlighting their significance as dominant consumers
in the future. In addition to this there is a rising trend of in-home
deliveries (deliveries while homeowners are out) which is expected to grow.

Also
driving the acceleration of online shopping are emerging business models such
as subscriptions and auto-replenishment which are powered by online and further
increase in online penetration rates for repeat purchases.

Fewer stores in
the future to channel consumers to digital retail

There have
been five consecutive years of net closures of retail stores and with dwindling
levels of footfall across high streets, shopping centres and retail parks this
trend seems set to continue. 10% of
consumers say they will shop less in physical stores in next 12 months,
outweighing those who suggested they will shop more frequently in-store. With
more consumers turning to online for even mundane purchases, demand for retail
property is at its lowest since 2007 and the role of the store has become
polarised, with flagship destination stores continuing to attract sustainable
levels of footfall, while other secondary locations with dwindling levels of
footfall remain under pressure.

Richard Lim, Retail Economics, commented: “It’s no exaggeration to say that the retail industry is undergoing a period of unprecedented change. Despite concurrent waves of political and economic upheaval in our midst, our work with retailers suggest this is a mere distraction from the seismic structural shifts reshaping the retail landscape.

“Successful retailers have always had to reinvent themselves to stay relevant. However, the pace of change will inevitably prove too fast for many – as shown by the number of CVAs hitting the headlines. While the impact of future technologies and consumer acceptance is highly uncertain, it definitely feels like the digital retail revolution is only just getting started.”

Risks to a digital
future – the data keepers

There are,
however, potential risks ahead for retailers that don’t prioritise data
security when embracing the new technologies needed to thrive in a digital
future.

Whilst
consumers demand better technology from retailers for a seamless shopping
experience, they are also increasingly aware of the need to protect their
personal data. Over a quarter of respondents have taken some action to limit
the amount of data shared with companies, reaching almost a third for 16-24
year olds.

Consumers’
attitudes towards sharing data overwhelmingly showed they believe businesses
benefit far more than consumers. In fact, two thirds thought companies benefit
more from the sharing of data compared to just 8% who thought consumers
benefited the most. Only a quarter (26%) said there was an equal exchange of
value. Financial rewards, free and discounted products rank most highly for
consumers in terms of benefits they would still be willing to exchange their
data for.

Gavin Matthews, Head of Retail at Womble Bond Dickinson (pictured), said: “Online retail is being driven on apace due to a combination of factors and early adopters in the retail market who can flex and adapt their business models quickly will rise to the top. However, as retailers leverage new technologies to support this growth, new risks also emerge. Consumers are increasingly conscious of the need to protect personal data and their privacy in order to reduce the risk of fraud, identity theft and misuse of their data. Real damage can be done to a retailer’s brand and reputation with any data breach, and loss of trust can have far reaching consequences for any business and its bottom line.”

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