It was BJP or say BJP’s UP in-charge Amit Shah’s strategy that Narendra Modi should contest election in UP, in addition to his Gujarat seat. The selected seat is Varanasi, the most important centre having a significant influence on eastern UP and Bihar. According to analyst, if Narendra Modi contests election at Varanasi, it would have ripple effects on the 27 seats of eastern UP and 40 seats in Bihar as well.

Modi is always safe as a
Gujarat candidate. Thus, for the interest of the party prospect, he
decided to come out of his comfort zone and decided to contest in
Varanasi. In the mean time, Kejriwal also decided to contest against
Modi after his theatrical referendum on March 23rd rally at Varanasi.

The point remains that
Kejriwal may not be a match against Modi at Varanasi, but his comment
definitely makes Modi a bit defensive. Kejriwal simply questioned why
is BJP’s Prime Ministerial candidate contesting in two seats?
Nation’s Prime Minister must be brave.

Arvind Kejriwal is definitely
right on his comment. There is no point in contesting two seats. Only
those people contest in more than one seat, who lack confidence in
winning a seat. Does Modi lack confidence? Should he contest for just
one seat? Will Modi contest only from Varanasi or Gujarat only?

In fact Modi is in a trap now.
After declaration of his candidature he can’t withdraw from
Varanasi. But he knows very well, even after BJP coming to power
riding on his popularity and hard work, his losing an election would
stop all doors for him to Delhi.

Now let’s discuss Modi’s
chances in winning the Varanasi seat. Modi should turn triumphant in
Varanasi, as history suggest. BJP has won most of the time in
Varanasi (except 2004 election). In 2009 Murali Manohar Joshi won the
seat having a vote share of just 30.52 per cent. BSP was a close
second with 27.94 per cent followed by SP at 18.61 per cent.

At this point 30 per cent vote
share would never help Modi winning. There is every possibility that
SP, BSP and Congress would be combined to find a common candidate
against Modi. As per 2009 election results, the vote share comes to
56.55 per cent and with such vote share BJP is sure to lose the
election.

Even at the moment BSP’s
Mukhtar Ansari is the challenger. As per calculation, Varanasi has
got 18 per cent dalit votes and 15 per cent Muslim votes. Combination
of the two communities gives around 33 per cent votes in support of
the BSP candidate. If Congress’ 10 per cent vote is added, it comes
up to 43 per cent. Thus SP backs BSP candidate or not, it would be
very difficult for Modi to win in such a condition. Modi can win in
only one condition that it has to fetch more than fifty per cent
votes in his favour else, will lose the seat. You may be most popular
face in India, but UP ground realities is so tricky. Thus Kejriwal is
not a factor at all. In all probability if BSP, Congress and SP make
a tactical understanding, Modi would lose that seat.

Whatever I analyzed above, the
BJP must have analyzed too. Then why have they asked Modi to risk his
election at Varanasi? If Modi is likely to lose from here, how it
would have a ripple effect on so called 67 seats? Isn’t it
confusing?

But in a closer scrutiny, it
appears to be a smart strategy. Modi contesting in UP seat would
compel SP, BSP, Congress and even other parties like left (CPI
especially) to contest against Modi united. Everybody would extent
support to Mukhtar Ansari. Uniting all the opposition, Modi might be
risking Varanasi seat, but on the other hand it is counter
consolidating BJP support in all other seats in UP and Bihar.

If Modi makes BJP versus rest
in Varanasi, supports base of BJP candidates would grow significantly
in other seats as there will be an impression of no difference
between SP, BSP and Congress. Thus BSP and SP would experience
Congress anti-incumbency effect too. People will stand behind BJP
candidate. Thus, this is the Varanasi gamble of Modi and very well
thought out plan. Even, in case Modi wins, it would be an incredible
record. Thus Kejriwal doesn’t matter here. He might contest but
would end up number 3 or less, as real contestant would be Ansari.
SP, BSP and Congress would never accept Kejriwal as their common
candidate.

Now what about Kejriwal’s
question of Modi contesting two seats? Answer is simple, Modi would
ignore his comments. He would contest from Gujarat for wining surely
and may indirectly ask Kejriwal to contest him in Gujarat.

The result of Varanasi gamble
would be known only after elections, but knowing the real strategy,
one should be sure that Modi would contest from Gujarat in addition
to Varanasi. People remember winners and not results. In this case
Modi at least for the party sake is ready to contest in a sticky
wicket. Thus, he should be applauded.

Editorial NOTE: This article is categorized under
Opinion Section. The views expressed in this article are solely
those of the author and do not necessarily represent the views of
merinews.com. In case you have a opposing view, please click
here to share the same in the comments section.