These GOP Memos Show Exactly Why It Will Be So Hard For Mitt Romney To Win This Election

The conservative polling firm Resurgent
Republic is out with two new polling memos this week that go
a long way in explaining why Republican presidential candidate
Mitt Romney is having such a hard time closing
the gap on President Barack Obama in key swing
states.

Based on focus groups with blue-collar voters (men and women
without college degrees, earning less than $60k a year) in
Cleveland, Ohio, and college-educated women in suburban Richmond,
Va., the memos look at the overall sentiment of these key "swing"
voters, all of whom cast their ballots for Obama in 2008 but
remain undecided this time around.

Their findings: While voters still feel very negatively
about the economy, they don't think it's all Obama's fault. And
for now at least, they trust the President more than they trust
Romney.

To be fair, the memos do point out openings for Romney, on issues
like the economy, debt, and healthcare. But in a conference call
with reporters, the Republican pollsters who conducted the study
made it clear that these were rare bright spots on what is
otherwise a bleak electoral landscape for Romney.

"They used very negative words to describe the state of the
economy, but President Obama escapes responsibility for this,"
said pollster Linda DiVall, who
conducted the Virginia focus groups. "Women still want to
move toward the future and say that Obama is not the one
singularly responsible for the economy."

Here are some of the other highlights from the memos and the
call:

Blue-collar voters have overall negative views about the
economy, and are still feeling the effects of the economic crisis
in their daily lives, according to pollster Ed Goeas, who
conducted the focus groups in Ohio. But they also
"expressed general optimism about the future," Goeas said.
"They are optimistic that some of the right things are being
done to move the economy forward," he added, and they give
Obama "credit for making things better."

According to Goeas, Romney's 47 percent comments definitely
damaged him among blue-collar voters, particularly women,
increasing his challenge with that demographic. “[It] raised
the bar of what he has to prove to these voters — that he does
have concern for them and more specifically that his plan is
addressing the very problems that they’re feeling on a daily
basis,” Goeas said. The men surveyed were less offended by the
comments, and remain open to learning more about Romney and his
plans during the debates.

Women in Virginia also hold negative views about the economy,
while remaining optimistic and "focused on the future." "They're
very much buying into the advertising mantra of the [Obama]
campaign," DiValli said.

The Virginia groups were also turned off by the 47 percent
comments, although, on the bright side, his latest advertisement
emphasizing his empathy appears to be working well to counter
initial impressions. Still, DiValli noted that Romney's "biggest
obstacle" is "a connection to understanding what these voters
have been living through the last four years, and having policies
in place to address that."

Both the Ohio and the Virginia groups were still skeptical
about Obama's healthcare reform law, and concerned about rising
healthcare costs. While both pollsters saw this as an opportunity
for Romney, concerns about Romney's own healthcare reform have so
far made it difficult to come up with a clear attack against
Obama on the issue.

Another roadblock for Romney and his running mate Paul Ryan among the Virginia voters were
concerns about their positions on women's issues, which DeValli
sees as more related to statewide reproductive rights issues
rather than the candidates themselves.

In the upcoming debates, "these swing women really want to
hear new details about his policy plans," DeValli said.

These are steep challenges, but the pollsters — as well as former
Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour, who hosted the call —
said they do not believe they are insurmountable for Romney.

"I think they can be turned around in five weeks, I have no doubt
about that," Barbour told reporters. "I would be surprised if it
could all be turned around in just one debate … but in the month
of October and the first week of November, Romney has time, both
through the debates and in other ways, to make the sale."

"The burden is on him," Barbour added. "It's his election
to win. It has been the whole time. He has to do it."