October jobs report continues moderate, steady growth

Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 161,000 in October. Thus far in 2016, employment growth has averaged 181,000 per month, compared with an average monthly increase of 229,000 in 2015. In October, employment continued to trend up in health care, professional and business services, and financial activities. (See table B-1.) ...

The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for August was revised up from +167,000 to +176,000, and the change for September was revised up from +156,000 to +191,000. With these revisions, employment gains in August and September combined were 44,000 more than previously reported. Over the past 3 months, job gains have averaged 176,000 per month.

So if you add in the 44,000 in positive revisions, that 161,000 increase goes to 205,000, which is a pretty good improvement from where we thought we were. The unemployment rate also dipped back below 5.0%, to 4.9% in October (technically going from 4.97% to 4.88%), and while that reflects seasonally-adjusted drops in both labor force and the unemployed, it levels out huge increases in the labor force and "employed" in September. That leaves us with a 2-month total of +311,000 for employed, and +269,000 in the labor force, so that's a legitimately low rate.

The other big story in the jobs report was an impressive increase in wages.

The average workweek for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls was unchanged at 34.4 hours in October. In manufacturing, the workweek edged up by 0.1 hour to 40.8 hours, while overtime was unchanged at 3.3 hours. The average workweek for production and nonsupervisory employees on private nonfarm payrolls was unchanged at 33.6 hours. (See tables B-2 and B-7.)

In October, average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls rose by 10 cents to $25.92, following an 8-cent increase in September. Over the year, average hourly earnings have risen by 2.8 percent. Average hourly earnings of private-sector production and nonsupervisory employees increased by 4 cents to $21.72 in October.

That's pretty good, as higher wages is certainly something that is needed, particularly after the drop in Consumption growth that we saw in the previous week's GDP report for the 3rd Quarter. The average weekly earnings growth in the private sector isn't as high (up 2.5%) because of a slightly lower workweek, but it's still above the rate of inflation, and should be decent enough to continue to have the economy grow going forward.

If you break down jobs into sectors, those also seem to have patterns repeating. Over 39,000 jobs were added in October in health care/social assistance, and nearly 20,000 gained in administrative/support services. Both of these areas also have had big gains over the last 12 months, as health care has added over a half-million jobs, and administrative/support is up over 194,000.

But on the down side, mining and logging continues to fall as oil prices stay low, losing 2,000 jobs last month and 108,000 in the last year. Also, manufacturing employment continued to decline, losing 9,000 jobs in October, 17,000 in the lat 2 months, and 88,000 over the last year. The economic concerns that the average non-college educated male that are in these jobs are legitimate- after a brief runup a few years back, those sectors are back in the decline that plagued much of these sectors throughout the 2000s, and it is understandable that they are upset with the status quo, and possibly turn them toward a strongman who would "blow things up", ;like Donald Trump (however, the racism and sexism that is shown in Trump support is not part of this "economic anxiety." And while those two items should not be connected, they far too often are).

But those losses are contained largely to those heavy industries, as the rest of the economy continued to add jobs across most sectors. Much as it has done for the last 6 1/2 years under President Obama, and make no mistake, we are in a better spot than where we were when Obama was elected 8 years ago. Don't believe me- take a look at these figures.

About Me

This cat's a 40-something libation-enjoying gabber still trying to do the right thing. Watch his crazy adventures as he works and stumbles his way through the great world of public service in the Age of Fitzwalkerstan, while keeping tabs on Bucky Badger and the next Great Depression. I'm told I'm big in Oshkosh.