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Betis can be a hard nut to crack

Betis Sevilla is still in the race for a European cup spot, despite the fact that they have only won a game in more than a month. A string of inconclusive results are endangering their presence in Europa league and their dreams of playing among the best European squads in the Champions League have all but vanished. Tonight they will start as huge underdogs in Madrid against a team that has a good chance at securing the trophy in the aforementioned competition and is already qualified for the next edition.

http://www.wsn.com/football/preview/spanish-la-liga/real-betis-sevilla_vs_real-madrid-preview/ has an insightful article about the upcoming game and raises some questions about whether punters should back Real Madrid at full stakes. The odds for a home victory are insignificant and there is no value whatsoever in placing such a wager, while trusting the hosts to cover a -2.5 goals spread is extremely risky. The visitors miss three players, but none of them are recent injuries and the team has fully adjusted to play without them.

The most recent game against city rivals Sevilla turned into a scoring festival, with both teams leading and then coming from behind. Six goals were scored one week ago and the scenario can’t be dismissed as fantasy for tonight’s fixture, especially with Real Madrid being the top team. The only concern that punters might have, albeit a very serious one is that Mourinho will choose not to field his best starting formation. The Portuguese coach is going to do his best to capture the Champions League trophy with this team, given the fact that he is very likely to leave it in a not so distant future.

Betis failed to win despite having home pitch advantage last round, but they are not the team to defend away from home not even against the Spanish giants. The head to head record is intimidating with Real Madrid winning 10 out of 17 games, but very few of those victories were achieved by a crushing score. From a punter’s point of view, there is simply more value in trusting the visitors not to lose by a wide margin, then to back the hosts to cover a handicap spread. Another interesting choice is to go against the current and wager on few goals to be scored, counting on the fact that Betis will keep its guard up trying to secure a point on one of the most difficult stadiums in Spain.