ASIO, Jakarta, and Australia’s Jerusalem Problem

Politics can, after a time,
becomes a myopic exercise of expedient measures and
desperate hope. Politics, raw and crude, is at its best at
points where survival matters. Conversely, it can illustrate
human vices in raw fashion, low points of idiocy and the
disaster of folly.

The Morrison government in Australia
risks succumbing to another march of folly. Having arisen
from a decision to summarily execute its leader (politically
speaking), Malcolm Turnbull’s replacement looks wooden, a
hulk of swaying confusion in search of a purpose. No
perspective to exploit is beyond Scott Morrison’s purview,
be it psychologically ruined children on Manus Island or the
prospect of disturbing relations with a move of the
Australian embassy to Jerusalem.

The latest shot to
Morrison’s less than tranquil ship has come from the
abrupt move to consider Jerusalem as the new seat of
Australia’s representation, one made simultaneously with a
not so considered contemplation of repudiating the Iran
nuclear deal. Some figures, cocooned by security and a
cultivated sense of obliviousness, felt it sensible. Colin
Rubinstein, executive director of the Australia/Israel and
Jewish Affairs Council felt it politically savvy. “Look at
his backbench. Look at his ministry. If you took a poll I
think you’d find a lot of support.”

A cruder
rationale lurks behind the decision: an attempt, made at
short notice, to shore up the Jewish vote in the federal
seat of Wentworth, vacated by Turnbull in the
aftermath of the Liberal Party’s leadership challenge.
The good, irate citizens of that seat are being asked
whether to return a Liberal member to Canberra, a point
complicated by a competitive field of candidates and dollops
of anger.

In this instance, a leaked briefing or bulletin
by the Australian domestic intelligence service on the
possible disturbance of any such announcement found its way
into the public domain. Marked “Secret” and
“AUSTEO” (Australian eyes only), it received
distribution on October 15, a day before Morrison floated
the idea of an embassy relocation.

The ASIO Bulletin is sombre and reflective,
no doubt aware that the Trump administration’s decision to
move the US embassy to Jerusalem came with much blood
(dozens of Palestinians slaughtered along with 2,400 injured
during protests in May): “We expect any
announcement on the possible relocation of the Australian
embassy to Jerusalem, or consideration of voting against
Palestinians in the United Nations, may provoke protest,
unrest and possibly some violence in Gaza and the West
Bank.” The document also noted that, “possible
Australian interests may be the target of protest activity
following any announcement.”

Morrison, having been
caught off guard (why would you listen to cautious
intelligence officials?) sought a second opinion from ASIO
director-general Duncan Lewis to placate critics. “I want
to… reassure Australians that ASIO has no evidence at this
time of any planned violence in response to the
government’s announcement on 16 October and the matter was
fully discussed by Cabinet.”

Another (failed) element of
Morrison’s Jerusalem botching stems from attempts to
minimise the reaction from various Muslim states to the
prospects of moving Australian diplomats from Tel Aviv. One
state, Australia’s northern neighbour with the largest
Muslim populace on the planet, came to mind.

Indonesia’s
Foreign Minister Retno Marsudi had been rather busy on the
WhatsApp program conveying notes of concern to Australian
Foreign Minister Marise Payne, a point that was dismissed by
the Morrison government as small beer. A spokesman for
Senator Payne went so far as to call the exchange part of a
“constructive discussion.”

The messages, also
leaked, suggested that the term “constructive” had been
rather worn. The action would, according to Marsudi, prove
a “slap” to “Indonesia’s face”. Irritated at the
timing of the announcement (Palestinian Foreign Minister
Riyad al-Maliki was visiting Jakarta), Payne’s counterpart
wondered: “Is it really necessary to
do this on Tuesday?”

Payne’s spokesman, briefed to
soften the agitation, explained his boss’s position:
“Minister Payne emphasised that there had been no change
to Australia’s commitment to the Middle East peace process
and to a durable and resilient two-state solution that
allowed Israel and a future Palestinian state to exist side
by side, within internationally recognised
borders.”

This did little to calm Marsudi, who badgered
Australia’s ambassador Gary Quinlan for two meetings in three days to explain
why the contents of her conversation with Payne had made
their merry way into the public domain.

The statement from the Council of Arab
Ambassadors in Canberra, signed by Egyptian ambassador
Mohamad Khairat as head of the Council, did much to blow off
any suggestions that Morrison’s grand idea would not be
damaging. “The two-state solution means nothing without
an equitable resolution of these final-status issues. In
the absence of functioning peace process, the sensible
course of action would be for Australia to recognise the
State of Palestine based on the 1967 borders with East
Jerusalem as its capital.”

The waters of diplomacy have
been muddied, and Morrison is keen to find convenient
scapegoats. The Victorian Labor government has been accused of leaking the ASIO bulletin to
The Guardian Australia, though this vaguely libellous
accusation ignores the genuine possibility that staff on
Morrison’s own side might well have done so. According to
an ASIO spokesman, Lewis had spoken to the Australian
Federal Police head Andrew Colvin and “formally referred
this matter to the AFP for investigation.”

This entire
tie-up revealed a standard perversion in Australian
attitudes to classified information: the disclosure of
WhatsApp messages between representatives of a foreign
country is frowned upon but less egregious than a sober,
relevant document warning government officials about the
consequences of an expedient foreign policy decision. The
latter informs an otherwise ignorant public about a
government making policy on the hop; the former is a
disclosure of tittle-tattle and anger, useful in exposing
hypocrisy. Both, at this terminus of the Morrison
government, reveal a slide into imminent electoral
extinction.

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