Have you ever noticed over the last few elections that there were always several ‘big corporate deals’ announced just prior to the general elections?

The reasons for them? Well, you speculate!

In any case, one of them was the acquisition of 55% of Kretam Holdings Berhad for RM1.18 billion by Hap Seng Plantations Holdings Berhad.

If the deal had gone through, it would have made Kretam controlling shareholder, Freddy Lim Nyuk Sang, a very, very rich man. Freddy’s background goes back to being a runner for Jeffery Kitingan when the latter was chairman of Sabah Foundation, that controlled the timber rich resources of Sabah then. Was reliably told that he had been detained by the authorities before for some sabotage!

Not too long ago, Tun Daim was quoted as saying that there were also ‘many other little 1MDBs and if put together, they are big…..very big’.

The question then is how these little 1MDBs could manifest if the regulators and watchdogs have kept saying that everything is alright?

This is not a question whereby the regulators were unaware of the wrong doing taking place. Nor were they told NOT to look into those matters. In any case, did they get these instructions in writing.

The sad fact to all these ‘OVERSIGHTS’ is that these sorry Regulators decided to LOOK THE OTHER WAY…….and when governance issues were highlighted to them by their underlings, they were told in no uncertain terms to change those findings!

This becomes a critical issue for those regulators that hold a critical position in the country’s regulatory structure e.g. Bank Negara Malaysia, MACC, Securities Commission Malaysia etc.

Peer pressure cannot be used as an excuse. If wrongdoings are highlighted, these regulatory heads are obliged to raise them and put them on record…….NOT LOOK THE OTHER WAY.

The Pakatan Harapan Ministers in the respective Ministries have their work cut out for them…..in carving out these HANGERS ON, who do not have any legitimacy to hold the position that they have currently!

With over a month since the change in the Malaysian Government, the euphoria appears to be still prevailing….as most Malaysians need to see Najib and his cronies held to account for nearly bringing the country down to its knees!

The general perception about the voting trend was that the ‘Malay tsunami’ took place that swept the corrupt Barisan Nasional to oblivion.

But did it really take place?

There are even claims that UMNO obtained over 50% of the Malay votes and that it was the non Malays (read: Chinese) who have usurped power!

So has that really been proven or rebutted.

I am therefore making an attempt to ascertain the proportion of Malay votes that went to Barisan Nasional, Pakatan Harapan and PAS.

I am setting out the parameters and the variables and am open to challenge and correction with respect to those figures.

To begin with, a noticeable feature of GE14 was that the details of the racial composition of the voters in each constituency was NOT revealed.

Only details that were revealed by the likes of Merdeka’s survey and news media were as follows:-

UMNO led BN obtained 36% of the total number of eligible voters

PAS won 14% of the votes…presumably in Kelantan, Terengganu and maybe Kedah……safe to say most of their voters were Malays!

This means Pakatan Harapan won the balance 50% or just under as confirmed by most ‘analysts’.

Analysts also said that 92% and 88% of Chinese and Indians respectively voted for Pakatan Harapan (let’s average it to 90% lah).

Now with the above data reported, do we have the racial composition of the voters during GE14?

The answer is NO. Neither do we have the racial composition of those who came out to vote.

This is where an assumption needs to be put in place i.e. the racial composition of the 14 million voters in GE14 is similar to the estimated racial demographics of the Malaysian population as follows:-

So for the Malays comprising 49% of the total population, that percentage out of eligible voters now become 54.4% (i.e. [49 divided by 90] multiply by 100). This would apply to the other communities too as follows:

Malays – 54.4%

Other Bumiputeras – 13.3%

Chinese – 23.3%

Indians – 7.8%

Others – 1.1%

The above would total 100%.

Now, I am going to work ‘backward’ based on the 36% (BN), 50% (PH) and 14% (PAS) votes attributed to the respective parties:-

PAS – It is safe to assume that PAS’s 14% of the votes came predominantly from the Malays

PH – Pakatan Harapan’s 50% was derived from approximately 90% of Chinese and Indian votes which works out to 28% (i.e. [23.3 plus 7.8] x 90%). The other Bumiputeras in East Malaysia, I counted and approximately 50% voted for PH. Applying the same percentage on the 1.1% attributed to others, then Pakatan Harapan got 7.2% (i.e. [13.3 plus 1.1] x 50%). This means that the Malay votes that went to Pakatan Harapan is 14.8% (i.e. 50% less [28% plus 7.2%])

BN – Based on the above percentages, if 10% of Chinese and Indian votes AND 50% of Other Bumiputeras and Others went to BN, this would work out in total to 10.31% (i.e. 3.11 plus 7.2%). Now if Barisan Nasional obtained 36% of the votes, this means that the Malay votes that went to BN was 25.69% (i.e. 36% less 10.31%)

So there you have it…..the Malays that make up 54.4% of eligible voters voted for the following parties:-

Barisan Nasional – 25.69%

Pakatan Harapan – 14.8%

PAS – 14%

Is it no wonder that Tun M and AI have to be threading carefully post GE14?

I’m back…..and it’s great to be back since my last post which was soon after GE13 in 2013.

Quite honestly, I was resigned to the thought that the UMNO led BN would somehow get its majority in the Malaysian Parliament especially with the gerrymandering, disproportionate representation in the seats be they state or parliament and suspected rigging of the votes.

However, just prior to the elections, I commented to my wife that in the 2008 GE12 elections, the Pak Lah led BN government lost its two thirds majority in Parliament in addition to losing the two richest states of Selangor and Penang …… primarily due to the Rakyat’s resentment to the steep increase in the petrol prices plus the nonsense by his son in law and the ‘Fourth Floor’ boys.

As such, in this GE14 elections, with the 1MDB fiasco at full play PLUS the marked increase in the costs of living made worse with the introduction of GST, I remarked to my wife that the Rakyat would be livid and the swing to the Opposition should be stronger!

And lo and behold I was proven right much to my wife’s pleasant surprise….we’ve got a new government!!

This result has provided me with the impetus to revive my two bit contribution to all and sundry with my side of view to issues of interest!

Analysts have been out in full force….crunching the numbers and making assertions at the same time.

Some even going to the point of saying that with the numbers carried by their brethrens, they can form a government without the ‘kafirs’!!

That same chap compared two photos, one showing three Chinese looking girls celebrating with a birthday cake; the other showing three Malay looking girls with tudung – with the comment “What have we got in common?” Click HERE

You do feel sorry for these people, don’t you?

In any case, let me provide some figures of my own (minus all the emotions of that chap mentioned above) and see if there is some basis to it.

Ok, we all know that out of the Malaysian population of 26 million plus, only 12.3 million were eligible to vote.

Of those 12.3 million, only 88% i.e. 10.86 million voters turned up to vote!

Now, I can’t find any data to support the percentage of races that made up the 10.86 million who came out to vote.

I’m not certainly not going to make wild assumptions of the racial makeup of those who voted – I will just refer to the racial percentage making up the Malaysian population:-

Malays – make up 60% of total population but I am assuming only 55% of the 10.86 million who voted were Malays (according to the chap above, the Malays were lackadaisical in choosing to vote!)

Chinese – they make up 25% of total population but I am assuming 30% of the 10.86 million who voted were Chinese (to support the ‘chap’s’ assertion that Chinese diligently registered themselves as voters and indeed, went to vote!)

Indians and others – they make up to balance 15% who voted in GE13.

So there you are, this means that, by using the above percentages, the numbers who voted recently in racial terms (totaling 10.8 million) are as follows:

Malays – 6.0 million

Chinese – 3.2 million

Indian and others – 1.6 million

Now, the officially reported votes attributed to Barisan Nasional and Pakatan Rakyat are as follows:-

Barisan Nasional – 5.2 million

Pakatan Rakyat – 5.6 million

Analysis of the Barisan Nasional share of votes – Since Hindraf has returned to UMNO’s fold (plus the grateful ‘others’), it’s only fair to assume this block of 1.6 million votes has gone to Barisan Nasional.

This means that the balance 3.6 million votes (5.2 less 1.6) gained by Barisan Nasional must have been obtained from the Malay voters (of 6.0 million). Who else?

Conclusion for Barisan Nasional – Of the 5.2 million votes obtained, 69% came from Malays and 31% came from the Indians/others.

Analysis of the Pakatan Rakyat share of votes – If everyone says that the 5.6 million votes obtained by PR came from the ‘Chinese Tsunami’ totaling 3.2 million votes, there is still a remaining 2.4 million votes (5.6 less 3.2) to be accounted for.

Which race totaling 2.4 million voted for Pakatan Rakyat?

Answer: Malays

Conclusion for Pakatan Rakyat – Of the 5.6 million votes obtained, 57% came from Chinese and 43% came from the Malays.

Overall Conclusion

It shows that 40% of the Malays (2.4 million out of 6.0 million) who voted, chose Pakatan Rakyat. The balance 60% or 3.6 million chose UMNO/BN.

The whole Chinese voting jing-bang (according to Najib) of 3.2 million voted for Pakatan Rakyat.

UMNO, with the support of the supposedly subservient Indian/others block of 1.5 million votes, is the dominant force here.

Pakatan Rakyat with more even Chinese and Malay support bases, is deemed more multi-racial.

So is this a case of a Chinese Tsunami or a Split Malay Fraternity (Of Differing Values)?

Btw, can two groups from the same community BUT ‘Of Differing Values’ unite….especially politically?

Remember how they (PAS) were unceremoniously ‘booted’ out of Barisan Nasional then?

Of the approximately 12.3m eligible voters, the voter turnout was 84.8%.

So what now for the UMNO led BN and Pakatan Rakyat?

Recriminations against the Chinese for the ‘Chinese Tsunami’?

Unlikely.

This is because the Chinese voted for PAS in seats that the latter was contesting in………likewise Malays were voting for DAP where DAP was contesting in. It was truly a Malaysian effort. The same can be said where it involved PKR candidates.

This is very unlike the UMNO led BN effort whereby the thrust of the campaign was to play the race card and to instil fear into the rural Malays of an ‘impending’ takeover by the Chinese!!

It was nonsensical……but the MCA corroborated to this evil effort by UMNO by their advertisements in The Star newspaper of an impending ‘Islamisation’ of the country!

Is it no wonder that MCA has been totally rejected by ALL?

The Star newspaper will be next.

Najib’s position appears to be untenable just from the results achieved.

It was so clear that UMNO was so desperate to obtain its simple majority (by whatever means), after which they meekly congratulated themselves and rushed to get themselves appointed in front of the King the next day!

And the questionable means in which the UMNO led BN achieved its ‘win’ may be the ‘Buah Mulut’ of everyone over the next few weeks……..the result of which, we anticipate earnestly……something that must be peaceful and beneficial for all!