David Cameron is on course to easily win the Newark byelection on Thursday, according to a new poll.

A survey by Conservative peer and pollster Lord Ashcroft puts the Tories on 42 per cent, 15 points ahead of second-placed Ukip on 27 per cent - with Labour trailing in third on 20 per cent.

The results emerged as the Prime
Minister visited Newark for a fourth time in the campaign, telling
voters he understood 'temptations' to vote for other parties.

But the Tories were hit by a separate national poll by Lord Ashcroft giving Labour a clear lead ahead of next years general election.

Across the country, Ed Miliband's party is now on 34 per cent, up three points on last week, with the Tories down four points to 25 per cent. Meanwhile, the Liberal Democrats were down two points on just six per cent, with UKIP firmly entrenched in third place, up two points to 19 per cent.

The Tories were installed as runaway favourites to hold on to the Newark seat on Thursday after polls showed the party had a comfortable 15 per cent lead ahead of the by-election

Despite the national slump for the Tories, Mr Cameron will point to a jump in support in Newark.

The results show an upturn in support
for the Conservatives compared to last week's Survation poll for the Sun
which put the party on 36 per cent, with Ukip on 28 per cent and Labour
at 27 per cent.

Lord Ashcroft said the differences shown by the two surveys could be down to his counting of 'shy voters' who refuse to say or claim not to know how they will vote in relation to how they voted in the last election, with more of these likely to be Tories.

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The Tory peer also released figures showing 70 per cent of voters planning to back Ukip's Roger Helmer in the by-election are doing so in a general protest to show they are unhappy with all the parties.

The poll also showed a majority of Ukip supporters - more than six in 10 - said they were backing Nigel Farage's party to send a message that they were unhappy with their usual party.

Ukip is hoping to capitalise on its success in the recent local and European elections and overturn the Conservative majority in the seat.

David Cameron has thrown everything at the Newark by-election in a bid to avoid a humiliating defeat at the hands of UKIP. The PM appeared in the constituency today - speaking to workers at an electrical goods warehouse

Despite Labour trailing the Tories and UKIP in Newark the party has pulled ahead in the national polls, according to Lord Ashcroft

It became vacant when former Tory MP Patrick Mercer, who had served as an independent since May last year, resigned over a lobbying scandal in April.

He stepped down amid allegations he asked questions in Parliament in return for money and did not contest the findings of a report into his conduct which suspended him from the Commons for six months.

Nigel Farage ducked the chance to stand in Newark. He claimed this weekend that he would instead choose a seat in the South East of England

Mr Cameron, who was on the campaign trail alongside Foreign Secretary
William Hague, admitted Mr Mercer had 'let down' his constituents.

'He did let you down. What he did was completely wrong,' he said.

'Often in by-elections people think "Well, you let me down, why should I?" So I wanted to come here personally.

'There's
always temptations to go off and vote for another party, to send a
message about this or give the Government a kick about that and that's
absolutely people's right, we live in a democracy.

'You choose.
You're my boss - you're his boss. If you think he'd do a good job, vote
for him; if you think I do a good job, vote for me at the next election.
If you want to get rid of me at the next election, vote for someone
else.'

Mr Cameron insisted Tory candidate Robert Jenrick was
committed to the Nottinghamshire constituency's long-term future unlike
the other parties' representatives, who the PM claimed view the poll as a
way to make gains in the run-up to the general election.

He said:
'Remember all those posters years ago - a dog is for life, not just for
Christmas - it is a bit the same with your member of Parliament.

'I
know Robert will be here, will be working hard because he is committed
to the long-term future of people in Newark and Nottingham.

'The other parties just see this as trying to make a bit of progress for something else they want to do elsewhere in the country. That is how Labour, how Ukip, how the others are addressing this by-election.'

Shadow chancellor Ed Balls and deputy Labour leader Harriet Harman were also in Newark to support their candidate Michael Payne.

Newark is a Tory heartland so it is no surprise that the constituency's voters prefer David Cameron to Ed Miliband. But even the third of voters unhappy with Mr Cameron's performance would prefer him in Downing Street to the Labour leader

Labour supporters in the by-election seat want to see Ed Miliband in Number 10. But, worryingly for the Labour leader, almost one in five party supporters would prefer David Cameron as PM to Mr Miliband

The other eight candidates standing in Thursday's election are: David Watts for the Liberal Democrats; David Kirwan from the Green Party; two independents Paul Baggaley and Andy Hayes; Lee Woods from the Patriotic Socialist Party; David Bishop from the Bus Pass Elvis Party; Dick Rodgers from Stop Commercial Banks Owning Britain's Money and Nick The Flying Brick from The Official Monster Raving Loony Party.

Following the poll, the Tories are now just 1/6 favourites to win the by-election following with bookies Ladbrokes.

Matthew Shaddick of Ladbrokes said: 'UKIP's only hope looks like a last minute switch of Labour support. If enough voters are prepared to vote tactically to give David Cameron a bloody nose, this might still be a close contest.'