Sydney to Hobart yacht race winning times

The Sydney-Hobart yacht race starts from Sydney Harbour on Boxing
Day (26 December) and finishes several days later in Hobart. It is a 630 nautical
mile ocean race. Here are the winning times for 1945 to 2011.

Year

Line Honours Winner

Days

Hours

Minutes

Time

1945

Rani

6

14

22

6.60

1946

Morna

5

2

53

5.12

1947

Morna

5

3

3

5.13

1948

Morna

4

5

1

4.21

1949

Waltzing Matilda

5

10

33

5.44

1950

Margaret Rintoul

5

5

28

5.23

1951

Margaret Rintoul

4

2

29

4.10

1952

Nocturne

6

2

34

6.11

1953

Solveig

5

7

12

5.30

1954

Kurrewa IV

5

6

9

5.26

1955

Even

4

18

13

4.76

1956

Kurrewa IV

4

4

31

4.19

1957

Kurrewa IV

3

18

30

3.77

1958

Solo

5

2

32

5.11

1959

Solo

4

13

33

4.56

1960

Kurrewa IV

4

8

11

4.34

1961

Astor

4

4

42

4.20

1962

Ondine

3

3

46

3.16

1963

Astor

4

10

53

4.45

1964

Astor

3

20

5

3.84

1965

Stormvogel

3

20

30

3.85

1966

Fidelis

4

8

39

4.36

1967

Pen Duick III

4

4

10

4.17

1968

Ondine II

4

30

20

5.26

1969

Crusade

3

15

7

3.63

1970

Buccaneer

3

14

6

3.59

1971

Kialoa

3

12

46

3.53

1972

American Eagle

3

4

42

3.20

1973

Helsal

3

1

32

3.06

1974

Ondine III

3

13

51

3.58

1975

Kialoa

2

14

36

2.61

1976

Ballyhoo

3

7

59

3.33

1977

Kialoa II

3

10

14

3.43

1978

Apollo

4

2

23

4.10

1979

Bumblebee IV

3

1

45

3.07

1980

New Zealand

2

18

45

2.78

1981

Vengeance

3

22

30

3.94

1982

Condor of Bermuda

3

0

59

3.04

1983

Condor

3

0

50

3.03

1984

New Zealand

3

11

21

3.47

1985

Apollo

3

4

32

3.19

1986

Condor of Bermuda

2

23

26

2.98

1987

Sovereign

2

21

58

2.92

1988

Ragamuffin

3

15

29

3.65

1989

Drumbeat

3

6

21

3.26

1990

Ragamuffin

2

21

5

2.88

1991

Brindabella

3

1

14

3.05

1992

New Zealand Endeavour

2

19

19

2.80

1993

Ninety Seven

4

0

54

4.04

1994

Tasmania

2

17

48

2.74

1995

Sayonara

3

0

53

3.04

1996

Morning Glory

2

14

7

2.59

1997

Brindabella

2

23

37

2.98

1998

Sayonara

2

20

3.5

2.84

1999

Nokia

1

19

48

1.83

2000

Nicorette

2

14

2

2.58

2001

Assa Abloy

2

20

46

2.87

2002

Alfa Romeo

2

4

58

2.21

2003

Skandia

2

15

14

2.63

2004

Nicorette

2

16

1

2.67

2005

Wild Oats XI

1

18

40

1.78

2006

Wild Oats XI

2

8

53

2.37

2007

Wild Oats XI

1

21

25

1.89

2008

Wild Oats XI

1

20

34

1.86

2009

Alfa Romeo II

2

9

2

2.38

2010

Wild Oats XI

2

7

37

2.32

2011

Investec Loyal

2

6

14

2.26

The data for 1945-1993 comes from the Sydney Morning Herald (24 December 1994). The more recent data are from the official race website, the Sydney Morning Herald and Wikipedia. The data originally published included an error in the 1965 results; it has been amended here.

The winning time (first across the line) varies quite a bit due to
weather and improvements in boat design and sailing techniques.
What has been the pattern of improvement over time?

Winning times have generally decreased, from around 6 days to around 2.6 days on average.

How can we describe the pattern further? Using statistical
methods to put a straight line on the graph (regression) gives
this:

One way to describe the decrease is with a straight line. The straight line above was fitted by linear regression, giving time in days = 98.6 - 0.0480 x year. This describes the decrease quite well. However, we should be cautious about applying this model to future races. For instance, extrapolating suggests that by the year 2033 it will take, on average, around 1 day to win, and by the year 2055 the winning boat will arrive before it leaves!

Are there other ways to describe the changes? Another alternative method fits lines to only parts of the data and joins the results, like this:

This type of method allows for some curving by fitting straight lines to subsets of consecutive years. It makes some other adjustments and is known as 'locally weighted regression', or 'lowess' for short. The lowess curve is shown above. It shows that after about 1975 the rate of improvement slowed down. The lowess curve helps visualize the changes over time, but it does not give us a formal mathematical model of the change over time.