Asia-Pacific power shift doesn’t necessarily mean war

Some analysts predict China will peacefully increase their power in the region over time. Picture: Dale de la ReySource:AFP

A FORMER chief of the Australian Defence Force has claimed it is only a matter of time before Australia will be invaded, and we should be worried about rising tension in the Asia-Pacific region.

Admiral (ret.) Chris Barrie, was quoted in an analysis by the ABC, declaring “Australia is plunging headlong into catastrophe and we are utterly unprepared ... The time-bomb is ticking and it will explode in our lifetimes.”

He argued there are many “trip-wires” — or points of tension — in the region.

China’s construction of artificial islands in the South China Sea is one of them, as is America’s unrelenting naval patrols — leading China to officially protest a US defence bill on Monday, which could see American warships visiting Taiwan.

North Korea’s missile program is another, with Japan calling on this United Nations this week to increase pressure on leader Kim Jong-un and grind testing to a halt.

The article described the region as a “tinderbox”, poised to descend into war.

This week, a Japanese diplomat called for action to stop North Korean leader Kim Jong-un’s missile program, saying “This is not a time for dialogue. It’s a time for pressure.” Picture: Wong Maye-ESource:AP

“A miscalculation or misunderstanding ... could tip us over the edge, countries would be backed into corners and we have no way right now of talking our way out.”

It’s a grim prospect, but Ashley Townshend — a research fellow at the University of Sydney’s United States Studies Centre — told news.com.au there is another possibility.

It all depends on the fragile balance of power that maintains the region’s stability.

He agreed with the Admiral’s comments that miscalculations and misunderstandings between the major powers could be disastrous, but noted significant steps have been taken in the past few years to manage some of the risks.

“There is a clear and sustained strategic competition taking place between the US and China in our backyard. But it is not preordained how this rivalry will work itself out,” he said.

US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping are responsible for managing the delicate balance of power in the Asia Pacific region. Picture: Saul LoebSource:AP

“The US and China in particular have agreed to a number of military-to-military confidence-building measures that are designed to reduce the risk of an accidental clash between fighter aircraft or warships in the open seas and open skies,” he said.

An increasing number of close encounters have recently prompted the two countries to adopt a much more conservative approach to one another.

“These near misses really brought home for Beijing the inherent risks of military recklessness by their seamen and pilots. The good news is a number of rules-based agreements are being followed, and at some level this reduces the risk of an accidental clash,” he said.

“That’s not to say there won’t be a deliberate provocation or a deliberate outbreak of hostilities. The entrenched disagreements in the East and South China Seas, on the Korean Peninsula, and between the US and China more broadly will all continue to cause friction.”

However, Chinese island-building and frequent US patrols are two other potential sources of conflict. Picture: Centre for Strategic and International Studies.Source:Supplied

While war is one possibility, he argued it’s also entirely plausible the balance of power in the Asia-Pacific region will shift peacefully over time.

Mr Townshend said if both countries continue to be risk averse, there could be a gradual decrease in American strategic influence and a relative increase in Chinese geopolitical weight.

However, that may not be what’s best for Australia.

“A US-China confrontation I agree would be devastating, and that is certainly a potential future scenario. But another, and possibly more likely scenario is one where there is a slow erosion of US strategic power — a slow changing of the guard without major conflict.

“It’s obviously in Australia’s interests to see peace prevail in the Asia Pacific, but we also have clear interests in an open, democratic and liberal regional order, and it’s unclear at this point whether our current trajectory will allow this order to prevail.”