Wednesday, April 11, 2007

Sports Blogger 2007 NFL Mock Draft!(And Guess Who Picks First?)

I lucked into picking for the Raiders*, which means I have the first overall pick in the draft.

Obviously, I'm not making this pick without your input, so it's on the table (and you're on the clock): Who should I (uh, the Raiders) take?

(Or should I trade the pick? If so, to who? How far down? And what should I ask for in return?)

I have to get AA my pick by end-of-day tomorrow, so let's work on this until mid-day tomorrow.

I figure that if I/we keep the pick, there aren't THAT many choices: Calvin Johnson (per FanIQ)? JaMarcus Russell? Someone else? (Especially if you're arguing I should trade down.) Please offer up some type of argument of why I should take a particular player.

(But if you see the argument made previously in the comments, no need to repeat. Just reference the argument in shorthand or say the player name and "what so-and-so said" as the reasoning.)

JaMarcus Russell Dan.Oakland despicably needs a future franchise quarterback.Although,they could wait another year until Brian Brohm's there for the 2008 draft,Al Davis isn't getting younger.Calvin Johnson has every reason to argue he has the most talent.However,Oakland will probably draft on Need,not talent.

Here is a homer pick. I say take Calvin Johnson in the first round and Troy Smith in the second or third...

Smith is getting bashed for his character issues, but they were a few years ago. They are saying he is too short (please see Drew Brees). There are definitely Heisman winning QB's that flounder once they get to the NFL, but if you look at Smith's track record of showing up for the big game (bowl games/Michigan) (minus Championship game vs. Florida), I think you have a fairly high quality quarterback and you will have someone for him to throw to (CJ is even better than Ginn Jr) (end of longest sentence ever).

Trade. Since I've been following the drafts it seems that there is rarely enough of a gulf in class between the first pick and the rest (1998 being the major exception) to justify not taking the plethora of extra picks that you are in a position to gain, especially for a team with as many holes as the Raiders.

Unless you've got an infatuation with JaMarcus Russel (I don't) I would trade down to somewhere in the 5-10 range and then grab LaRon Landry or one of the many defensive lineman available.

I don't really like it, but I think you have to take JaMarcus Russel, unless you can find a good trade down into the 6-10 range. Calvin Johnson is easily the best player, but even if he's the next coming of Jerry Rice, will it matter if you don't have a QB?

The Raiders have more holes than they can fill with 1 draft pick. The hole they don't really have is wide receiver.

Best case is they (you) trade down and get a 1st and 2nd round draft pick, somewhere around the 8-10 range. In the first round, a defensive lineman like Alan Branch or Jamaal Anderson, or if you trade down farther, take Amobi Okoye. Then look for an offensive lineman in the 2nd round. A bottom of the draft QB (like Drew Stanton or even Justin Zwick) would be a steal.

If you stay #1, you should pick Brady Quinn. BQ can make all the throws, he has had 2 years experience leading a pro-style offense so he should adapt quickly, and he is a big strong kid that can take some hits and bounce back.

Calvin Johnson is clearly the best player in the draft. But, the Raiders have Moss and Porter (and Curry), so WR isn't a big hole. Plus, WRs are such a tough position to project to NFL level, 1st round guys don't often pan out unless they are also good return men (Tim Brown) or start right away with a good QB to throw them the ball (Terry Glenn).

The real Raiders pick will be Russell, but he is just a more athletic Aaron Brooks. He's a big, strong kid that is athletic and can make all the throws. But watching him play, he often looks bored and doesn't seem really into it (just like Brooks). He's the Ryan Leaf of this draft.

I would go Joe Thomas, it does not matter who your QB is if you can not protect him. But I would not take him #1 Overall, I would trade with Tampa who wants CJ and get there #4 pick and maybe a 3rd rounder.

Trade down no lower than 4 if possible. Then take either Quinn or Russell, whichever is there. Pick up a 2nd or 3rd in the process to get an O-lineman. As Oakland you would want to throw deep to utilize the height of Moss and speed, so go with Russell. I personally like Quinn and think he's the choice if you want to win now. If no takers on the trade, draft Russell.

As others have said, CJ is the best, but definately not a need area, unless you can work out a trade for Moss or Porter (not likely).

It is known that Tampa has a man crush on CJ. See if you can swing a deal dwon to the 4th pick.Then if there is a QB left draft him (Russell or Quinn). If there is not a QB left ... I'd consider Thomas (although remember what happened with Gallery). I'd look to trade down again at that point. Or I'd look at A. Peterson.

Trade down and get Quinn. If anything has been proven in the NFL draft it's that there are no certainties. Trade down, grab Quinn, save cap cash, and grab an extra pick. I'm sure Tampa Bay is dying to make sure it gets Johnson and would be willing to deal. Dont worry about getting your draft card value, worry about getting the player that makes the most sense at a cheaper cap #.

Plus you have the added bonus of Quinn's apprenticeship under Weiss. NFL rookie qbs are usually thrown to the fire based on their cap #, and he is as NFL ready as possible.

C.J. for sure...There will be another QB talent available in the '08 draft (Brohm, Henne), but there will not be another C.J> for a long, long time. HE is a once-in-a-decade talent.

Also, I do not know why he does not get more (if any) talk at #1, but I truly believe Adrian Peterson is the 2nd best player in this draft. He is insanely talented and showed in the Fiesta Bowl and in the Combine that his injury is now a thing of the past. Lamont Jordan is certainly not the answer for the Raiders, and the Raiders need a young stud to hand the ball off to.

OK, after three hours of discussion on this post, my first choice is to try to trade with the Bucs and get whichever QB is available there, with the preference being Russell if both are available. (Sorry, BQ fans, I simply cannot take Quinn.) If there is no trade available, I'm hearing a lot of CJ (under the "BPA" guideline), even though the Raiders may not see WR as a "need" position.

However, as I'm going under the assumption that they will trade Randy Moss at some point, having a top-tier WR like CJ would be quite helpful, even if QB is a mess right now. Let's sleep on it and reconvene in the a.m. (Or keep commenting tonight. I'll be checking.)

I like morrow's idea. Kansas City would probably go for it. Herm Edwards might be the perfect coach for Randy Moss in the fact that Edwards isn't going to put up with Moss's BS. Then the Raiders have a QB for the next 2 years. They can take Calvin Johnson with the top pick, and then draft Stanton or Smith in the 2nd or 3rd round to develope under Green for a couple years. It'd be good for the Raiders. Although I'm a Niners fan so I hope that doesn't happen.

Raiders fan here... just want to start off by saying that we have the NFL's toughest schedule next year. So... that means we're likely to have a top 5 pick again next year. That factors into the decision.

I would hate to see the Raiders take either Quinn or Russell. Both are big gambles, especially Russell, who I think is the more likely pick. Whoever said that Russell is just like Aaron Brooks is pretty spot on.

Ideally, I'd like to see the pick traded, dropping down as far as possible and picking up as many draft picks in round 2-4 as possible. That's what this team needs.

If we keep the pick, I hope it's CJ, with Moss on his way out of town in a trade.

B. Quinn is the QB if you are going to take QB. Just because Russell outplayed him in the bowl matchup all of a sudden he's the better QB? Look at the defenses the QBs were facing. ND's defense was a patsy defense, and LSU was a monster defense. If you can't bring yourself to draft B. Quinn, pass on Russell and go with CJ2. Then DO NOT take a 2nd or 3rd round QB. These are always a bad idea, because then you have guys like C. Frye or A. Walter and you are wondering, can I rely on this guy in the future, then you pass up a chance to get a great QB the next couple of years. So, go CJ2 and then take the best QB that comes out next year, because as Jim pointed out, the Raiders can plan on picking at the top again next year, and CJ2 is a once in a generation type of talent. Plus to refute the argument that you don't have a QB to throw him the ball, remember that CJ2 had Reggie Ball tossing it to him in college, so obviously he doesn't need a top notch QB to get him the ball.

You wouldn't have to take troy smith in the 2nd. He'll probably be available in the 3rd round.

Oakland is ok defensively, don't draft defense unless one of the LBs or D-lineman slip into the 2nd round. Start rebuilding the offensive line and get some protection for whoever is the quarterback. If you want to wait on a QB, pick one up via trade or free agency to hold the fort his year, then get John David Booty from USC next year. Instant name recognition in Oakland and will butts in the seats.

I think the wisest thing to do is trade down. You trade with the Bucs but you make the Glazers include jersey sales for Wayne Rooney. That way the Bucs get CJ. Then you trade down with the redskins who you might be able to fleece for a vikingsesque first rounder next year and a third and fourth rounder this year. Use the cash from the Rooney jerseys and those extra picks to make a run for Tom Brady. He might be your only hope at winning.

Trade Moss for Aaron Rodgers and a conditional 4th rounder (altho it sounds like that is dead in the water) or for a second and seventh round pick or something. You can't tell me he isn't worth Wes Welker to somebody. Package the 2 second rounders (with Porter if necessary) to jump back up in the first round for an O-line guy like Kalil from USC, somebody to make the calls and keep Rabert Gallery's immense physical prowess from being overshadowed by his dimwitted decision-making.

If you can't deal Porter? Just cut him and let some other team deal with his diva baggage.

If I had to trade down, maybe the Vikings and grab Okoye. Since the Raiders are going to stink for awhile (long after Sapp is gone) I want to get someone with the longest possible tenure.

P.S. The Falcons would never trade for Moss since team owner Arthur Blank is a "character first" kind of a guy. They didn't think about it when Moss was with the Vikings and certainly not again with the Raiders. Why the Raiders didn't sign David Carr is beyond me though.

Here's the thing - the Raiders are not going to get any type of value for that #1 pick. Everyone knows they're trying to auction it off to the highest bidder, so all the other teams are holding back to see what the best offer is.

If the Raiders wanted to do something smart, they'd swap first rounders with another top-5 team that has a man-crush on CJ (Tampa, Detroit...) and try to pick up a second or third rounder in the process (as much as I hate sifting through all the drivel in most of the column, Peter King's take on the hassles with trading picks these days is pretty good).

The trouble is, there's no standout guy in the draft other than CJ, and the Raiders have 2 pretty good receivers if they can get a QB who can get them the ball. And the QB needs the protection from the woeful O-Line in order to get the ball to the pretty good receivers.

My input would be to trade with either Detroit or Tampa, let them take CJ. Then Oakland drafts Joe Thomas (although... anyone remember the Robert Gallery debacle? Or Mike Mamula?) with that high #1 pick, and hopes to steal a Troy Smith or Drew Stanton in the second round.

They get their next "QB of the Future", they get some help on the offensive line, and they can once again utilize their offensive weapons.

Now, if they only had a running game... or a defense... or special teams...

I'm a GT fan and alum so I have a nattural allegance to CJ. That being said the GM's seem to be in love with a QB that has the proven ability to overthrow his receivers. Take Russell and Send him over to the Lions for their pick, Josh McCown and a third rounder. Then take Calvin Johnson with the #2 (and save a few bucks in the process).

The next thing I'm going to tell you to do is use that 3rd round pick and Randy Moss to move into the first round (along with swapping 2nd round picks with a team (like the 49ers, Eagles or Chiefs) to get Greg Olsen, Marshawn Lynch or best available O-lineman.

For a team as bad as the Raiders, they have some unreal trade bait. If they use it correctly they can be formidable as soon as this year.

You gotta take JaMarcus with that 1st pick. No one needs a QB more than Oakland, and there's no better QB on the board (Quinn will be Cleveland's consolation "prize"). Russell is a special QB with exceptional strength and accuracy, and although Calvin Johnson is tempting, who's going to get the ball to him? Troy Smith?

By the way. I cant understand what makes Jamarcus Russell so tempting. Is it because he can throw the ball 70 yards while stitting down? It's not like you need him to do that during an actual game. Let's not forget that he had the nice advantage of playing with two 1st round worthy receivers.

A few years ago Kyle Boller threw the ball 60 yards from one knee and got drafted in round 1 after a mediocre career at Cal. Matt Leinart got bashed for having mediocre arm strength after putting together one of the most stellar careers you can have in college.

I'm not saying Russell is going to be a bust. He might be great. I'm saying that if you had to bet your franchise on either Russell or Calvin becoming a great player, it's a no-brainer. If you're taking Russell, you better have a better reason than arm strength.

(And just to point out that Peyton Manning, Drew Brees, Tom Brady and Joe Montana couldn't throw 70 yards if they threw it 50 and ran backwards 20.)

Best bet is to trade the top pick to Tampa for the 4th pick and an additional early rounder from them and draft Joe Thomas from Wisconsin. That o-line is pretty brutal and it needs the most help. Thomas would be able to come in and help right away, possibly having more of an immediate impact on the team than the other 2. What's the point of drafting Johnson if you can't get him the ball or Russell if he is getting crushed all season? You could always go with Steve Smith or Trent Edwards in the second round if they are available and you wanted to add a WR/QB.

since you can trade picks for such things as rookie cards and blog posts you should strongly consider drafting scott pioli with the #1 and letting him work his magic with the remaining picks and trade possiblities with your team. i'm sure he could have the raiders back to respectability sooner that any of the players mentioned as the top pick. dunno just trying to think outside the box

Trade down with AZ for the 5th pick in the 1st and the 6th pick in the 2nd and take J Russell. If he's not there (which would suck), take J Thomas. AZ picks up either C Johnson to have the best young WR core in the NFL, or go with A Peterson because E James isn't going to last very long.

You might have to trade with TB or Cle in order to get Russell but I'm not sure about that one. The rest of my suggestion just involves us getting two early 2nd picks.

As a Raiders fan, the perfect scenario for me is the following: J Russell with the 5th pick, trade the two early 2nd round picks for a late 1st round OT (maybe J Staley). If we can't trade the 2 early 2nd picks for a late 1st then we should draft 2 OL players to protect our new QB.

The defense is good, the line is awful, the QB is awful, and the RB is good enough for now.

Dan -- The Philadelphia Eagles hereby offer the 26th pick in the first round and a shipment of Tastykakes in exchange for the first pick of the draft, pending a physical exam by a licensed cardiologist who will stipulate that the fat and cholesterol won't kill you.

OK, huge thanks to everyone who has participated and offered input. I have sent my selection to the Commish (Awful Announcing) and it will be... Calvin Johnson. In the end, "BPA" (Best Player Available) was the most powerful factor.

With the trades and acquisitions made going into the draft, plus the bulk of the team that is carried over from last season, and the trades and draft picks made during the draft, it sure seems like the Pats are going to be the team to beat in the AFC this season, and perhaps in all of the NFL.

Considering the Pats were almost in the Superbowl last season with a pathetic receiving corps and that they've added very talented players into said receiving corps this season, barring some nasty injury(ies), they look to be the team to take it all.I say injury(ies) because I think they could survive an injury or two to some positions, but if they lost Brady they'd probably have a hard time recovering.

I wish I could say that the Redskins did well in the draft and/or in free agency but so many holes still exist that I'm not sure they'll be significantly better than last season. I suppose on face they should be if they can keep their corners healthy. With Landry (argh, hard to type that name as a Redskin!!) back there with a healthy secondary they might be able to cheat up more and put more pressure on opposing QBs. Might.

They still have what should be a lot of talent in the receiving positions, and Campbell should be better, but they don't have the quality on either line (offense or defense) that I wish they'd have, so it could be yet another year of .500 at best, or worse.

Still, the NFC East looks to be the NFC Least again this season. None of the teams there look like they'll be that good, and none really look ready to step up and take the division.

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DanShanoff.com is a sports-blog spin-off of my long-time ESPN.com column, "The Daily Quickie." Anchored by an early-morning post of must-know topics, the blog is updated frequently throughout the day with new posts and user comments.