World View & Market Commentary. Forest first; Trees second. Focused on Real & Knowable facts that filter through the "experts" fluff and media hyperbole. Where we've been, what the future may hold and developing a better way forward.

Wednesday, August 26, 2009

A short forecasting piece by Armstrong, the key is found in the last three paragraphs. According to him and his confidence model, key resistance is at 11,000 on the DOW Industrials. If we fail to break above that level then a retest of the lows is likely or even to make new lows into the first half of next year. THEN, he is predicting a rally to (choke) 30,000 plus.

Ooookaaay. A lot of people have ruined their reputations on such calls, but with the money pumping reaching new extremes, I can see that in a Zimbabwe/loss of confidence kind of way, but I would not bet the farm on that occurring.

I disagree with the fact that Martin does not temper his discussions on the concentration of capital being the heart beat of innovation. Yes, you need capital to form and to concentrate to pull off large scale innovations, but that is different than boom/bust and it’s not just a matter of degree, especially when the boom is propagated with Ponzi finance and FRAUD.

At any rate, always a thought provoking read, I’m sure you will enjoy it…