friday plays

We lost our play on St louis on thurs when Milwaukee scored 2 in the top of the 9th to win 4-3.

Today nothing early I can see

If you want on the email or text messaging list for early and late plays just drop me an email. I will still post both on this blog.

The split between early and late plays is about 50-50 and I would expect that to continue through the rest of the season. These late plays are FREE. Just send me your email address and I will add you to the group receiving late plays.

Sports comments

I received the following email:

I am a college football enthusiast, and am trying to get started in hadicapping. I understand how to establish some sort of angle, keep detailed records, and test for significance. My problem is that all the data like YPP and returning starters and lots of other statistics become a little overwhelming when more than two variables are being compared. I guess what I mean is, where would a good place to start be for someone like me. More specifically, are there any key stats or angles that are reasonably simple? And if there are would that be a good place to start? Or is effective handicapping more realistic if almost all avaliable data is analyzed?

My Answer:

As far as variables for handicapping. I take a completely different approach in finding value so I really cannot help you out with the way you are going about it. I do know its almost an impossible task using those types of variables to find value.

Its my opinion that very few people are proficient enough to outsmart the books. They have the top minds in the world putting out these lines. There for I believe it requires a different approach the what most people use.

My approach to find value is premised on the idea that books actually give you value on purpose many times. They do it for a variety of reasons but the primary reason is that they know which way the public will be betting before they put out the line. So they tend to pad the line against the public…then when the public is done betting the line on many occasions even gives you more value.

So my approach is concentrated upon finding value that the books and public make available. Its a bit more complex then that but that is the basic premise I go by.

If any of you have more questions or comments ask away…poker , sports, vegas.

On the upper right hand corner of my blog I have a link to all previous posts of poker comments