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SDA: Elimination Time

by Bill Connelly, Brian Fremeau, and Rob Weintraub

It's time for some eliminations! While Auburn faces an FCS foe and Oregon tries to hang 100 points on a Jake Locker-less Washington squad, other top college football teams will be facing make-or-break battles this weekend.

TCU and Utah face off in what is quite possibly the biggest mid-major conference battle ever. The winner likely maintains a spot in the BCS Top Four, while the loser could face a significant downgrade in its bowl status.

Alabama and LSU tangle in Baton Rouge, with the winner well-positioned to make the BCS title game as a one-loss SEC champion and the loser all but officially eliminated from the race.

With likely conference elimination games like Baylor-Oklahoma State, Miami-Maryland, possibly Arizona-Stanford, and, technically, Boise State-Hawaii, there is a ridiculous amount at stake this weekend. November's first Saturday looks like a doozy!

The Hokies have bounced back nicely from the James Madison loss, winning six straight by an average of 24 points. Of course, the schedule easier than the ones Boise State gets mocked for playing. Virginia Tech steps up in class this week, hosting last year's conference champs from the Institute of Technology. Quarterback Tyrod Taylor has been his expected efficient self in the passing game. But he also leads the team in rushing, which is a problem because the Ryan Williams-Darren Evans combo was supposed to be among the nation's best. Williams should be back from a hamstring injury for this one. Taylor's dual-threat brilliance has been enough in the mediocre Coastal Division, where Tech (VA) leads Tech (GA) by two games and can hammerlock a spot in the title game with a win. The Jackets won last season behind Josh Nesbitt, who completed exactly one pass in the game but ran for three touchdowns. Tech is once again atop the nation in rushing, but the Yellow Jackets aren't dominating the clock and the line of scrimmage as they did last year. They desperately miss graduated defensive playmakers Derrick Morgan and Morgan Burnett, among others. The team that has won this game has won the last three ACC titles.

Illinois +3 at Michigan (Saturday, 12 p.m. ET, ESPN)

OVERALL

When IllinoisHas the Ball...

When MichiganHas the Ball...

Category

Illinois(5-3)

Michigan(5-3)

IllinoisOff

MichiganDef

IllinoisDef

MichiganOff

2010 F/+ Rk

27

34

68

115

5

2

2010 FEI Rk

33

43

67

112

12

2

2010 S&P+ Rk

23

28

54

86

2

3

2010 FPA Rk

36

59

2010 Rushing S&P+ Rk

68

103

2

2

2010 Passing S&P+ Rk

39

80

10

6

2010 Std. Downs S&P+ Rk

57

82

9

1

Run-Pass Ratio(Std. Downs)

71.5% Run(12th)

70.0% Run(16th)

2010 Pass. Downs S&P+ Rk

59

109

5

10

Run-Pass Ratio(Pass. Downs)

45.9% Run(10th)

32.6% Run(67th)

The Wolverines haven't won since October 2, and Illinois is 3-1 in the same span. The Illini have a decent chance to finish 9-3 this year if they can keep the momentum going, and Ron Zook may actually have found his way out of the dead-coach-walking wilderness. Illinois freshman quarterback Nathan Scheelhaase has looked comfortable against weak Indiana and Purdue defenses the last two weeks, going 29-of-41 for six touchdowns, no interceptions, and rushing for 163 yards. Michigan's defense (115th in defensive F/+) ought to provide little resistance, so it will be up to Denard Robinson and the explosive Wolverines offense to get in front and keep their foot on the gas pedal if they expect to win. Michigan has only overcome a seven-point deficit in two games this season -- 7-0 first quarter leads against Notre Dame and Indiana.

Maryland +8 at Miami (Saturday, 12 p.m. ET, ESPNU)

OVERALL

When MiamiHas the Ball...

When MarylandHas the Ball...

Category

Maryland(6-2)

Miami(5-3)

MarylandOff

MiamiDef

MarylandDef

MiamiOff

2010 F/+ Rk

53

16

61

4

55

43

2010 FEI Rk

39

18

47

3

23

36

2010 S&P+ Rk

69

16

77

3

63

35

2010 FPA Rk

27

60

2010 Rushing S&P+ Rk

76

9

61

47

2010 Passing S&P+ Rk

69

5

74

35

2010 Std. Downs S&P+ Rk

73

1

45

15

Run-Pass Ratio(Std. Downs)

60.7% Run(57th)

59.0% Run(69th)

2010 Pass. Downs S&P+ Rk

61

13

96

54

Run-Pass Ratio(Pass. Downs)

38.4% Run(32nd)

30.9% Run(74th)

Is Maryland a serious contender for the ACC Atlantic crown? They will have an interesting opportunity to prove it Saturday in south Florida. The Terps are tied (in the loss column) for the Atlantic lead with Florida State and N.C. State -- they get both teams at home in coming weeks -- and they catch the Hurricanes at a good time. Barring an unexpected late-week recovery, Miami quarterback Jacory Harris is likely out this week after suffering a brutal hit throwing a pass against Virginia. Assuming he cannot go, the job will fall to true freshman Stephen Morris. Maryland's defense is far from amazing, but it is unlikely that a freshman-led offense will be able to completely capitalize on the Terrapins' biggest weakness, passing downs breakdowns. The numbers point to an easy Miami win, but Harris' absence opens the door a bit. If Maryland comes home victorious, the team will have increased its Atlantic title odds considerably. The Terrapins are still extremely flawed -- needless to say, double-digit losses to West Virginia and Clemson look far less forgivable now than they did at the time -- but in the ACC, they might be able to find just enough magic to get the job done.

The last time Baylor played in a November game with conference title implications was November 23, 1995, when the 7-3 Bears (5-1 in the last iteration of the Southwest Conference) fell to ninth-ranked Texas, 21-13 in Austin. It's been quite a "First time since ..." season for Baylor, really. First likely bowl trip since 1994. First win over Texas since 1997. First Big 12 South lead in November since ... ever. If they want to check "First major bowl since 1980" off the list, however, they will need to pick up the pace on defense. The Bears and their putrid defense head to Stillwater to take on the latest version of Oklahoma State's Big Three -- 27-year-old quarterback Brandon Weeden, running back Kendall Hunter (a forgotten man heading into 2010 thanks to injuries), and big, dynamic wide receiver Justin Blackmon. It took a while for the Cowboys to get rolling last week against Kansas State (Blackmon was suspended one game for a DUI), but roll they did. Their 24-14 win over the Wildcats kept them on pace with Baylor and Oklahoma -- each team has just one conference loss. If Baylor is to win, it will have to be in a shootout, but quarterback Robert Griffin III might be up for the task. This could be a wild one in Stillwater.

No. 3 TCU -5 at No. 5 Utah (Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET, CBSC)

OVERALL

When TCUHas the Ball...

When UtahHas the Ball...

Category

TCU(9-0)

Utah(8-0)

TCUOff

UtahDef

TCUDef

UtahOff

2010 F/+ Rk

8

23

27

11

4

42

2010 FEI Rk

12

24

22

16

6

46

2010 S&P+ Rk

8

19

31

17

6

38

2010 FPA Rk

4

12

2010 Rushing S&P+ Rk

23

7

19

78

2010 Passing S&P+ Rk

45

46

3

26

2010 Std. Downs S&P+ Rk

34

48

8

31

Run-Pass Ratio(Std. Downs)

72.2% Run(11th)

63.1% Run(42nd)

2010 Pass. Downs S&P+ Rk

13

60

1

37

Run-Pass Ratio(Pass. Downs)

42.5% Run(15th)

33.1% Run(66th)

It seems odd that the biggest game in Mountain West Conference history features two teams that will not be members of the same conference in just a few months, but such is life in the great conference realignment era. The Horned Frogs and Utes are both BCS Top 5 teams, and each has an opportunity to vault permanently ahead of Boise State in the non-AQ pecking order if it can impress enough poll voters and computers with a victory this weekend. Neither has a strong enough resume for such accolades according to our opponent-adjusted numbers, but each has been ferociously dominant through stretches this season against weak foes. In terms of unadjusted numbers, TCU has been the better team in 2010, ranking among the Top 5 nationally in offensive and defensive available yards and in three-and-outs. Utah hasn't lost a home game since September 2007.

Hawaii +21 at No. 4 Boise State (Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET, ESPNU)

OVERALL

When HawaiiHas the Ball...

When Boise St.Has the Ball...

Category

Hawaii(7-2)

Boise St.(7-0)

HawaiiOff

Boise St.Def

HawaiiDef

Boise St.Off

2010 F/+ Rk

31

1

23

9

56

3

2010 FEI Rk

38

4

32

13

59

15

2010 S&P+ Rk

27

1

19

8

52

2

2010 FPA Rk

56

18

2010 Rushing S&P+ Rk

28

8

36

9

2010 Passing S&P+ Rk

16

18

75

2

2010 Std. Downs S&P+ Rk

20

14

46

5

Run-Pass Ratio(Std. Downs)

31.2% Run(120th)

62.2% Run(51st)

2010 Pass. Downs S&P+ Rk

29

29

58

36

Run-Pass Ratio(Pass. Downs)

24.3% Run(106th)

36.2% Run(48th)

Nobody expected this at the beginning of the season, but Hawaii might be the best team left on Boise State's schedule. The 31st-ranked Rainbow Warriors have won six in a row and have only a 13-point loss to USC (respectable) and an 18-point loss to Colorado (less so) dinging their resume. They pass, pass, pass, and they might figure out how to do some damage against a good Boise State defense. Head coach Greg McMackin has some great weapons in quarterback Bryant Moniz (3,247 passing yards, 65.7 percent completion rate, 25 touchdowns) and receivers Greg Salas and Kealoha Pilares (they have combined for 145 catches and 2,181 receiving yards). Unfortunately, while Hawaii's defense is also semi-respectable, the machine that is the Boise State offense isn't likely to struggle much on the blue turf. Kellen Moore (he of the 188.3 passer rating) has an embarrassment of skill-position riches at his disposal -- Titus Young, Austin Pettis, Doug Martin, Jeremy Avery -- and one has to figure that eventually the stout Boise State defensive line will get to Moniz and put an end to the shootout. If this game were in Honolulu, look out. In Boise, the Broncos are too much.

No. 6 Alabama -6.5 at No. 10 LSU (Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET, CBS)

OVERALL

When AlabamaHas the Ball...

When LSUHas the Ball...

Category

Alabama(7-1)

LSU(7-1)

AlabamaOff

LSUDef

AlabamaDef

LSUOff

2010 F/+ Rk

5

21

4

12

19

33

2010 FEI Rk

7

6

10

27

21

33

2010 S&P+ Rk

4

35

5

24

12

47

2010 FPA Rk

1

2

2010 Rushing S&P+ Rk

4

35

45

25

2010 Passing S&P+ Rk

11

14

8

91

2010 Std. Downs S&P+ Rk

16

24

6

23

Run-Pass Ratio(Std. Downs)

59.0% Run(68th)

69.6% Run(18th)

2010 Pass. Downs S&P+ Rk

2

12

7

106

Run-Pass Ratio(Pass. Downs)

29.9% Run(77th)

39.0% Run(25th)

Despite the tragicomedy that is LSU's quarterbacking in 2010, this game has been sprayed with the strong scent of upset by the college football skunk. A night game in Death Valley would help LSU's cause, but since this one is CBS's 3:30 baby, the Tigers will have to rely on a screaming crowd that has only been drinking for half a dozen hours instead of the full dozen. Both squads are coming off a bye week, which seemingly helps LSU -- Nick Saban has been known to overthink with lots of prep time (witness the fake punt disaster in the BCS Championship Game), while the mad genius of The Lester needs plenty of time to ferment. The whole Saban returning to Baton Rouge meme is worn off by now, so we can concentrate on football. I've harped all year on the fact that Alabama's vulnerability lies in its pass defense, a weakness LSU seems unable to exploit. Meanwhile, LSU's normally stout run defense was flambéed by Cam Newton. Can the Ingram-Richardson duo do likewise? If so, that sets up what could be the most heavily anticipated Iron Bowl ever, which is saying something.

No. 8 Oklahoma -3 at Texas A&M (Saturday, 7 p.m. ET, FSN)

OVERALL

When OklahomaHas the Ball...

When Texas A&MHas the Ball...

Category

Oklahoma(7-1)

Tex. A&M(5-3)

OklahomaOff

Tex. A&MDef

OklahomaDef

Tex. A&MOff

2010 F/+ Rk

14

39

16

25

23

58

2010 FEI Rk

14

45

9

20

14

49

2010 S&P+ Rk

13

33

16

22

23

50

2010 FPA Rk

53

108

2010 Rushing S&P+ Rk

48

13

15

40

2010 Passing S&P+ Rk

4

38

37

52

2010 Std. Downs S&P+ Rk

19

20

16

41

Run-Pass Ratio(Std. Downs)

57.6% Run(75th)

55.3% Run(90th)

2010 Pass. Downs S&P+ Rk

22

15

21

63

Run-Pass Ratio(Pass. Downs)

22.4% Run(112th)

23.1% Run(109th)

It is fun to talk about Baylor as a Big 12 South contender, but if you asked fans and analysts alike who they would pick to win the South, they would still choose Oklahoma. With just the road loss to Missouri clouding their record, the Sooners are in very good shape for a spot in the Big 12 title game, and with some breaks, they could still put themselves in position to reach the national title game. Of course, the national goals fall apart if they fail in College Station this weekend. Texas A&M got a burst of energy from new starting quarterback (and former starting receiver) Ryan Tannehill last weekend against Texas Tech. Tannehill has been stealing snaps from the enigmatic Jerrod Johnson. If A&M can find some consistency and momentum on offense, the defense could conceivably slow the Sooners down. Oklahoma will possibly have to take to the air to succeed against the Aggies, as A&M has a strong run defense out of the 3-4 alignment. Of course, having to pass likely does not much concern Oklahoma quarterback Landry Jones. He and receiver Ryan Broyles lead one of the best aerial attacks in the country.

With next week's showdown with Florida for the SEC East crown looming, some are calling for Steve Spurrier to rest key players like Marcus Lattimore and Alshon Jeffrey against the Hogs. This is the sort of thinking that ignores multiple decades of mediocrity in Columbia and assumes the team can downshift against a dangerous Arkansas squad and rev it back up again for the Gators. So expect to see the stars out there for South Carolina. Beating the Razorbacks will be a task, even with the season-ending injury sustained by star wideout Greg Childs. Quarterback Ryan Mallett passed for more than 400 yards and three scores last week, and faces the bottom-ranked pass defense in the SEC (260 yards per game allowed). The poor ranking is counter-intuitive, given the ferocious Gamecocks pass rush. Melvin Ingram and Devin Taylor have 12.5 sacks between them.

No. 15 Arizona +9.5 at No. 13 Stanford (Saturday, 8 p.m. ET, ABC)

OVERALL

When ArizonaHas the Ball...

When StanfordHas the Ball...

Category

Arizona(7-1)

Stanford(7-1)

ArizonaOff

StanfordDef

ArizonaDef

StanfordOff

2010 F/+ Rk

18

12

30

17

13

19

2010 FEI Rk

17

10

25

30

28

26

2010 S&P+ Rk

25

12

37

21

13

18

2010 FPA Rk

51

7

2010 Rushing S&P+ Rk

58

18

6

51

2010 Passing S&P+ Rk

33

41

39

3

2010 Std. Downs S&P+ Rk

46

40

17

35

Run-Pass Ratio(Std. Downs)

54.5% Run(93rd)

65.1% Run(29th)

2010 Pass. Downs S&P+ Rk

15

97

70

7

Run-Pass Ratio(Pass. Downs)

22.9% Run(111th)

37.0% Run(40th)

As the Oregon Ducks have run into BCS title game contention, Arizona and Stanford have been largely overlooked. Neither should be a championship contender, but both could still sneak in and claim the Pac-10 title if Oregon somehow falters. Both teams have been solid on both sides of the ball this year. Arizona has the best wi, having knocked off Iowa in September, but Stanford has been more consistent. The Cardinal haven't been held under 31 points yet this season, but the Wildcats haven't given up more than 27 points in a game. Stanford quarterback Andrew Luck has impressed, but the ground game behind an experienced line has been the lifeblood of their success -- 897 yards and 10 touchdowns in the last four games. On the other side of the ball, Nick Foles expects to return this weekend at quarterback for Arizona after sitting out two weeks with a dislocated kneecap. His replacement Matt Scott performed well, maintaining the Wildcats' 12th-ranked pass attach (300.6 yards per game).

Storylines of the Week

Rob Weintraub: I'm really upset that Washington quarterback Jake Locker got injured in the blowout loss to Stanford, because I didn't want any excuses for when Oregon beats the Huskies by 70 points or so. NFL teams likely to draft a passer in 2011 hopefully learned a lesson while watching Locker get Ryan Leafed into submission by the Cardinal last week. The Huskies do have talent, despite the excuse-makers for Locker, and if the quarterback was so good, he'd be turning said talent into wins, like Andrew Luck down in Palo Alto. But Locker, despite possessing all those measurables that makes scouts drool, isn't very good. He bails out on plays to run, locks in on receivers, and makes poor decisions. As a fourth-round pick, I can see it, but drafting Locker in the top five is insane. Meanwhile, the mighty Quack Attack will get to pad some stats and sit out much of the second half on Saturday in Eugene.

Brian Fremeau: I'm not the first person that has pointed out Boise State's unwillingness to participate in running up the score this season. I wrote a piece for ESPN Insider a few weeks back that suggested the Broncos would need to dominate every non-garbage-time possession to impress FEI, and for the most part, Chris Petersen's team has been doing precisely that. What they haven't been doing is padding their scoring margin late in games after taking a commanding lead. I don't do much with the "garbage time" possessions I discard in the FEI calculations, and it isn't entirely fair to use that data as an indication of a team's willingness or unwillingness to run up the score. It is still worth noting that the Broncos have played a total of 22 offensive garbage possessions this year and have only scored 42 garbage-time points on those drives. Their garbage-time scoring rate (1.91 points per poss.) lags behind the other undefeated teams -- TCU (2.59 points per poss.), Auburn (2.67), Oregon (2.73) and Utah (2.88) -- even as Boise State outpaces them all in non-garbage scoring.

Bill Connelly: I realize that with my all-world jinxing powers I am making sure this doesn't happen by bringing it up, but with just a few weeks remaining, we could technically end up with the following 10 teams receiving BCS bowl bids: Oregon, Auburn, Wisconsin, Baylor, Maryland, Syracuse, TCU, Boise State, Missouri, and Stanford. Of course, we could also end up with a more traditional (read: boring) list of Alabama, Ohio State, Oregon, Auburn, Oklahoma, Nebraska, Florida State, Pittsburgh, Boise State, and TCU. Considering we have now made our way into November, it is incredible how little has actually been decided, or even all-but-decided. For somebody who enjoys chaos and underdogs, this has been a dream season.

Picks

The Picks(* - "Fred Edelstein Lock of the Week")

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Rob

F/+

Georgia Tech

+13

Virginia Tech

Ga. Tech

Va. Tech*

Illinois

+3

Michigan

Illinois

Illinois

Maryland

+8

Miami

Maryland

Miami

Baylor

+7

Oklahoma State

Baylor*

Okla. St.

TCU

-5

Utah

TCU

Utah

Hawaii

+21

Boise State

Boise St.

Boise St.

Alabama

-6.5

LSU

LSU

LSU

Oklahoma

-3

Texas A&M

Oklahoma

Oklahoma

Arkansas

+3

South Carolina

S. Carolina

S. Carolina

Arizona

+9.5

Stanford

Arizona

Arizona

Season-long Results("Fred Edelstein Lock of the Week" record in parentheses)