What I say unto you I say unto all, watch. Mark 13:37

January 29, 2011

Without Egypt, Israel will be left with no friends in Mideast

The fading power of Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak’s
government leaves Israel in a state of strategic distress. Without Mubarak,
Israel is left with almost no friends in the Middle East; last year, Israel saw
its alliance with Turkey collapse.

From now on, it will be hard for Israel to trust an Egyptian
government torn apart by internal strife. Israel’s increasing isolation in the
region, coupled with a weakening United States, will force the government to
court new potential allies.

Israel’s foreign policy has depended on regional alliances
which have provided the country with strategic depth since the 1950s. The
country’s first partner was France, which at the time ruled over northern Africa
and provided Israel with advanced weaponry and nuclear capabilities.

After Israel’s war against Egypt in 1956, David Ben-Gurion
attempted to establish alliances with non-Arab countries in the region,
including Iran, Turkey and Ethiopia. The Shah of Iran became a significant ally
of Israel, supplying the country with oil and money from weapons purchases. The
countries’ militaries and intelligence agencies worked on joint operations
against Egyptian President Gamal Abdel Nasser’s rule, which was seen as the main
threat against Israel and pro-Western Arab governments.

Israel’s next alliances were forged with Jordan’s King
Hussein and Morocco’s King Hassan. These ties were operated in secret, as well
as ties with leaders in Lebanon’s Christian community. The late 1970s saw the
fall of the Shah of Iran, with an anti-Israel Islamic republic created in his
stead.

Around the same time, Egypt and Israel broke their cycle of
conflict by signing a peace agreement. Egypt positioned itself on the side of
Saudi Arabia, as head of the pro-American camp.

Mubarak inherited the peace agreement after President Anwar
Sadat’s assassination. Mubarak was cold in his public relations with Israel,
refusing to visit the country except for Yitzhak Rabin’s funeral, which
decelerated normalization between the countries.

Relations between the Israel Defense Forces and the Egyptian
army were conducted on a low level, with no joint exercises. Egyptian public
opinion was openly hostile towards Israel and anti-Semitic terminology was
common. Civil relations between the countries were carried out by a handful of
government workers and businessmen.

Despite all of this, the “cold peace” with Egypt was the most
important strategic alliance Israel had in the Middle East. The security
provided by the alliance gave Israel the chance to concentrate its forces on the
northern front and around the settlements. Starting in 1985, peace with Egypt
allowed for Israel to cut its defense budget, which greatly benefited the
economy.

Mubarak became president while Israel was governed by
Menachim Begin, and has worked with eight different Israeli leaders since then.
He had close relations with Yitzhak Rabin and Benjamin Netanyahu. In the last
two years, despite a stagnation in peace talks between Israel and the
Palestinians and worsening relations between Netanyahu and the Arab world,
Mubarak has hosted the prime minister both in Cairo and in Sharm el-Sheikh.

The friendship between Mubarak and Netanyahu is based on a
mutual fear over Iran’s strengthening and the rising power of Islamists, as well
as over the weakening and distancing of the U.S. government with Barack Obama at
its head.

Now, with Mubarak struggling over the survival of his
government, Israel is left with two strategic allies in the region: Jordan and
the Palestinian Authority. These two allies promise to strengthen Israel’s
Eastern battlefront and are also working to stop terror attacks and slow down
Hamas.

But Israel’s relationship with these two allies is
complicated. Joint security exercises are modest and the relationship between
the leaders is poor. Jordan’s King Abdullah refuses to meet Netanyahu, and
Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas is waging a diplomatic struggle against
Israel’s right-wing government. It’s hard to tell how Jordan and the PA could
fill the role that Egypt has played for Israel.

In this situation, Israel will be forced to seek out new
allies. The natural candidates include Syria, which is striving to exploit
Egypt’s weakness to claim a place among the key nations in the region.

The images from Cairo and Tunisia surely send chills down the
backs of Syrian President Bashar Assad and his cronies, despite the achievement
they achieved with the new Hezbollah-backed Lebanon government. As long as the
Arab world is flooded with waves of angry anti-government protests, Assad and
Netanyahu will be left to safeguard the old order of the Middle East. †