Expert: GOP Senate victory requires base, moderates

If Weld County Republican Ken Buck finds success in his bid to capture a Senate seat in Colorado next year, that success will depend, in large measure, on his ability to straddle the ideological gap between emphasizing his conservative credentials and appealing to moderate voters.

That’s the primary lesson from recent Republican success in elections this month in states such as New Jersey and Virginia, according to Denver-based independent pollster Floyd Ciruli.

“When the party is able to unify behind a candidate who has sufficient credibility with the conservative wing but yet can still appeal to unaffiliated voters and moderate voters, the Republican Party now appears to be in a winning position,” he said. “That is essentially what happened in Virginia and New Jersey. Both of those candidates had good, authentic credentials with their conservative wings, but they had both the talent and flexibility to take moderate positions focused primarily on the economy.”

Buck along with front-runner Jane Norton, Douglas County Republican Tom Wiens and three other Republicans are vying for the party’s nomination in the Senate race for the seat held by Democrat Michael Bennet. Bennet himself faces a primary challenge from former Colorado Speaker of the House Andrew Romanoff.

Ciruli said while Colorado politics doesn’t fit neatly into either a New Jersey or Virginia mold, the fact that Republicans no longer hold a statewide advantage in registered voters means the Republican nominee for Senate will have to demonstrate unshakable conservative credentials while also finding ways to appeal to moderate voters.

“That is ultimately the challenge, that is the demonstration of the competence of the candidates, their ability to keep both of those balls in the air,” said. “That’s the essence of it.”

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Buck campaign adviser Walt Klein, who is a Colorado political veteran, said he thinks Buck is ideally suited to rise to this task.

“Ken doesn’t have one message for people who will show up and vote in a Republican primary and a different message for people who will show up and vote in a general election,” Klein said. “In fact, what Ken says, is that’s one of the things that he thinks has caused Republican troubles at the ballot box.”

Jane Norton for Senate spokeswoman Cinamon Watson said Norton has the right message to win.

“I think Jane is a great candidate for Colorado, she’s a Colorado native, she’s lived in all parts of the state, she’s served the state as lieutenant governor,” she said. “Since entering the race, we’ve had a huge outpouring of support both in financial terms and in grass-roots volunteers.”

For his part, Patrick Davis with the Tom Wiens for Senate campaign said Wiens – the most recent entrant into the race – is ideally positioned to win in 2010.

“Our message is one of common sense and that seems to be the theme that’s on everybody’s mind these days,” he said. “Independent folks are hungry for a candidate who will listen and be honest and truthful and deliver some results.”

Ciruli said it’s too early to tell which candidate will appeal most to the conservative base and find support among moderates. He said while all the candidates have strong conservative credentials, their positions haven’t been defined enough yet.

“We’re sort of operating without a huge base of knowledge here as to what they can do with voters in an ideological race,” he said.

Ciruli said Norton does benefit from her establishment ties with her ability to raise money.

“However, it certainly means that there is room out there for the non-establishment, probably more conservative, individual to at least get some traction, some notice.”

Ciruli said Buck may adopt a strategy of using ideology to demonstrate that his opponents don’t have a sufficient base within the party, and if he’s successful, the money will follow, Ciruli said.

Klein, with the Buck campaign, said there is more to wining elections than fundraising.

“Money is important and plays a role, but all the money in the world isn’t going to get somebody elected who hasn’t connected with the voters as somebody who will represent their interests, be honest with them, be straightforward with and who won’t be the candidate who says one thing during the campaign and does something else in Washington,” Klein said.