How climate change will hurt the U.S.

At left, Michael Stanek hugs his daughter Kennedy amid the rubble of homes in Vilonia, Ark. in April. A tornado-packing storm system that killed at least 34 people also caused severe floods in Florida's Panhandle and deluged roads and engulfed homes and cars in coastal Alabama.

The scene may become more familiar. Summers are longer and hotter, and periods of unusual heat last longer than any living American has ever experienced. Winters are generally shorter and warmer. Rain comes in heavier downpours. Warming and other climactic changes are triggering wide-ranging impacts in every region of the U.S. and its economy, according to a new federal report on climate change. The report, which documents changes observed and those projected for the future throughout the country, addresses key issues affecting eight regions of the U.S. On the coasts, sea levels are rising, affecting infrastructures and economies. Insurance rates are rising in some areas, and is no longer available in others. Extreme heat and reduced water quality is affecting public health.

These are the key issues on climate change for eight regions of the U.S.:

Southeast & Caribbean

1. Sea level rise poses widespread and continuing threats to both natural and built environments and to the regional economy.

2. Increasing temperatures and the associated increase in frequency, intensity and duration of extreme heat events will affect public health, natural and built environments, energy, agriculture and forestry.

3. Decreased water availability, exacerbated by population growth and land-use change, will continue to increase competition for water and affect the region’s economy and unique ecosystems.

At left, residents are rescued after heavy flooding in Pensacola, Fla., in April.

4. The Midwest has a highly energy-intensive economy with per capita emissions of greenhouse gases more than 20% higher than the national average, but also has potential to reduce emissions that cause climate change.

Great Plains

1. Rising temperatures are leading to more demand for water and energy, constraining development, stressing natural resources, and increasing competition for water among communities, agriculture, energy production, and ecological needs.

2. Changes to crop growth cycles due to warming winters and changing rainfall events call for new agriculture and livestock management practices.

3. Landscape fragmentation is increasing. A highly fragmented landscape will hinder adaptation of species when climate change alters habitat composition and timing of plant development cycles.

4. Communities already vulnerable to weather and climate extremes will be stressed by more frequent extreme events.

5. Existing adaptation and planning efforts are inadequate to respond to these projected impacts.

At left, Charles Taber opens the two-week old storm shelter where he rode out the tornado that struck Oklahoma City in 2013.

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Northwest

States: Idaho, Oregon, Washington

1. Changing snowmelt will continue, reducing the supply of water for many competing demands and causing far-reaching ecological and socioeconomic consequences.

2. In the coastal zone, the effects of sea level rise, erosion, inundation, threats to infrastructure and habitat, and increasing ocean acidity, collectively pose a major threat.

3. The combined impacts of increasing wildfire, insect outbreaks and tree diseases are already causing widespread tree die-off and are virtually certain to cause additional forest mortality by the 2040s and long-term transformation of forest landscapes. Under higher emissions scenarios, extensive conversion of subalpine forests to other forest types is projected by the 2080s.

4. While the agriculture sector’s technical ability to adapt to changing conditions can offset some adverse impacts of a changing climate, there remain critical concerns for agriculture costs and resilience of the industry.

Reuters

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Southwest

States: Arizona, California, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, Utah

1. Snowpack and streamflow amounts are projected to decline, decreasing water supply for cities, agriculture, and ecosystems.

2. The Southwest produces more than half of the nation’s high-value specialty crops, which are irrigation-dependent and particularly vulnerable to extremes of moisture, cold, and heat. Reduced yields displace jobs in some rural communities.

3. Warming, drought, and insect outbreaks have increased wildfires and impacts to people and ecosystems. More wildfire and increased risks to communities.

4. Flooding and erosion in coastal areas are already occurring even at existing sea levels and damaging some California coastal areas during storms and high tides. Sea level is projected to rise, resulting in major damage as wind-driven waves reach farther inland.

5. Temperature increases, combined with the way cities amplify heat, will increase threats and costs to public health in cities, which are home to more than 90% of the area population.

At left, Frank Gehrke, chief of snow surveys for the California Department of Water Resources, measures the May 1 snowpack, which was zero — about 40 inches below average.

Reuters

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Alaska

1. Arctic summer sea ice is receding faster than previously projected and is expected to virtually disappear before midcentury. This is altering marine ecosystems and leading to greater ship access, offshore development opportunity, and increased community vulnerability to coastal erosion.

2. Glaciers in Alaska and British Columbia are shrinking substantially. This trend is expected to continue and has implications for hydropower production, ocean circulation patterns, fisheries, and global sea level rise.

4. Current and projected increases in Alaska’s ocean temperatures and changes in ocean chemistry are expected to alter the distribution and productivity of Alaska’s marine fisheries, which lead the U.S. in commercial value.

5. The cumulative effects of climate change in Alaska strongly affect Native communities, which are highly vulnerable to these rapid changes but have a history of adapting to change.

At left, the Yukon River, where Alaska has banned fishing for king salmon this summer due to low runs.

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Hawaii and U.S. Paciﬁc Islands

1. Warmer oceans are leading to increased coral bleaching and disease outbreaks in coral reefs, as well as changed distribution patterns of tuna fisheries. Ocean acidification will reduce coral growth and health. Warming and acidification will strongly affect coral reef fish communities.

2. Freshwater supplies are already constrained and will become more limited. Saltwater intrusion associated with sea level rise will reduce the quantity and quality of freshwater in coastal aquifers, especially on low islands. Freshwater supplies may be adversely affected as air temperature rises.

3. Increasing temperatures, and in some areas reduced rainfall, will stress native Pacific Island plants and animals, especially in high-elevation ecosystems with increasing exposure to invasive species, increasing the risk of extinctions.

5. Mounting threats to food and water security, infrastructure, health, and safety are expected to lead to increasing human migration, making it increasingly difficult for Pacific Islanders to sustain the region’s many unique customs, beliefs, and languages

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Hawaii and U.S. Paciﬁc Islands

1. Warmer oceans are leading to increased coral bleaching and disease outbreaks in coral reefs, as well as changed distribution patterns of tuna fisheries. Ocean acidification will reduce coral growth and health. Warming and acidification will strongly affect coral reef fish communities.

2. Freshwater supplies are already constrained and will become more limited. Saltwater intrusion associated with sea level rise will reduce the quantity and quality of freshwater in coastal aquifers, especially on low islands. Freshwater supplies may be adversely affected as air temperature rises.

3. Increasing temperatures, and in some areas reduced rainfall, will stress native Pacific Island plants and animals, especially in high-elevation ecosystems with increasing exposure to invasive species, increasing the risk of extinctions.

5. Mounting threats to food and water security, infrastructure, health, and safety are expected to lead to increasing human migration, making it increasingly difficult for Pacific Islanders to sustain the region’s many unique customs, beliefs, and languages

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