August 0610, 2018 Equity markets usually ramp to a top, around this week, before
sliding into September on a downward trajectory. Having said that, its worth
mentioning how often this market has defied expectations, and done just what it made no
sense to do, time and again. Were already into a tit-for-tat trade war, thats
ramping to a crescendo, though youd never know it by watching equities or bonds, for
that matter. The hardest thing to do, for the past year, was to remain invested in winning
stocks, yet thats just what so many have done. And even more incredibly, after a 42
point decline, analysts are pointing to Facebooks decline as the gift one should
accept by laying down dollars to buy its shares. Well, Im not here to recommend FB
as a buy or sell but I do recommend you watch the Treasurys weekly issuance, because
after a light week, last week, the Treasury will try and sell 10 & 30-year debt, this
week. Wednesday, the Treasury is offering $26B 10-year & on Thursday, $18B 30-year.
What US long term debt is paying in the US can only be seen as attractive to an investor
in Japan or Germany, where rates are nearly invisible or, even negative. But that
doesnt mean anyone from those countries would be comfortable locking up their money
for 10 years, or worse yet, 30 years. So the debt markets are worth watching, this week.

Data will be of more interest this week, too, as PPI is out Thursday, & CPI on Friday.
Many are almost "excited" to see inflation rising, evidently not students of
what past Federal Reserve Banks did to tamp down budding inflation. Out of curiosity, I
went from store to store in the mall, this past weekend, stopping in at any store
advertising for help. What were they offering as pay? $7.25 p/hour plus commission, the
commission doled out after minimum sales were accomplished. No wonder teens dont
have jobs this summer: who wants to worth for nothing? And, yes, I did try and account for
my age by offering teens an opportunity to earn $5 by popping into stores advertising job
openings, and report back what they were offered in pay. Each of them were offered as
little as I was, and none of them said theyd work for that little pay. And that was
during a busy weekend when shoppers were out to take advantage of Back to School sales tax
holidays, albeit apparel and/or shoes topping at $75, and school "supplies" at
$15. Still it was encouraging to see so many people shopping at the mall, exactly what the
sales tax holiday is intended to spurt. But inflation? No signs of that in pay offers, and
no signs in market prices for jeans, fleece, graphic tees or VANS.

Worldwide chip sales reached a record high in the second quarter, surging more than 20%
from a year ago, the Semiconductor Industry Association said late Friday. In the second
quarter, global sales rose 20.5% to $117.9 billion, or 6% sequentially

Wells Fargo & Co. disclosed in a filing Friday that unspecified U.S. government
agencies are looking into the bank's use of low-income housing tax credits. "Federal
government agencies have undertaken formal or informal inquiries or investigations"
about how Wells Fargo applied for and used those credits. Analysts keep welcoming every
DoJ settlement and recommending the shares. I wouldnt bank there and certainly
wouldnt invest in such a tainted bank, and recommend ignoring any analyst who finds
each settlement as an added reason to buy its shares.

The Earnings Calendar is only a smidge slower than it was last weekat least in terms
of the number of reports expected. There are more consumer discretionary companies
scheduled, from restaurants, to hoteliers, to shopping mall owners, radio station owners,
and TV distributors. Some are renamed companies, like Priceline, now Booking.com,
reporting Wednesday, even as the TV networks sliced and diced into half a dozen of more
companiesDiscovery & Libertywill compete with Walt Disney, Viacom for
analysts attention and investor dollars. And its not just American companies,
as Netease, Sina, Weibo, & Yelp are expected to report, as well.

Which brings us to conferences, a schedule slimmed by summer vacations, with most I-banks
on hiatus until September, some until November. The big events this week include
Cowens Communications & Infrastructure Summit Monday, UBS Financial Services
Conference starts Tuesday, the competition including Jefferies, offering Global
Industrials, and Oppenheimer Co its Technology, Internet & Communications Conference.
UBS Genomics 2.0 Summit, in Park City Utah, starting Tuesday, is likely to
overshadow Needhams Annual MedTech 1x1, & Leerinks West Coast Biotech Bus
Tour. Its a mini flurry of I-bank meetings not to be repeated again, this month.
Also Tuesday, the Annual Space & Missile Defense Conference is starting, subtitled
"Space & Missile Defense Sharpening the Militarys Competitive
Edge," but, of course, lets not forget Pres Trump now wants a new "space
protection" military division to add to Army, Navy, Marines, and Air Force. Quite
naturally, Space could absorb the Air Force or vice versa, space becoming a sub-division
of the Air Force. But the concept doesnt seem to rise to the same level as his
Mexican border wall, so dont start designing the new logo youd like to see
embroidered on patches consumers could buy at any of NASAs operating launch sites
that allow the public to tour.

Ill give a nod to JPMorgans Auto Conference, the participants not much
different from the ones that appeared at the European version, last month.
Wednesdays CanaccordGenuitys 38th Annual Growth Conference, in
Boston, promises microcaps that are too small for us to mention. Thursday, Morgan Stanley
will host Telecom & Media, while Goldman Sachs hosts Power, Utilities, MLP &
Pipeline Conference, both in New York.

And there you have ita week in which Earnings presenters will dominate the news
wires, with a gaggle of I-banks hosting clients at events that didnt need to meet
this week, specifically, but probably will because someone noticed how few I-bank
conferences are held from June 30th to September 1st, and thought,
so why not throw one ourselves? Of course Europe, forever walking to the beat of its own
drummer, has made it so difficult for I-banks to get paid for their work, that most simply
gave up organizing investment conferences., at all. If youre sticking with equities
it might be wise to buy some downside protection. September and October tend to be ugly
months, even if August cruises through without a hitch.

FRIDAY, 08/10
Best of ASCO (Chicago thru 11th) Fed Reserve Bk of St Louis Economics of Cryptocurrencies & Blockchain
Technologies Conference (St Louis MO) EA Sports (EA) "Madden NFL19" Video game launches at retail Macy*s (M) 13th Annual Shop for a Cause (Nationwide thru 13th)
"We Happy Few" is a Gearbox video game debuting today MOVIES OPENING: "The Meg," with Ruby Rose, Jason Statham, Rainn Wilson,
and a 70 foot shark & friends trapped in a submersible, from Warner Bros (T). "Dog
Days," with Nina Dobrev, Vanessa Hudgens, Finn Wolfhard, distributed by LD
Entertainment. "Slender Man," with Joey King, Javier Botet, Julia Goldani
Telles, accused in the disappearance of countless kids & teens, as well as the
motivation for preteens who almost killed a friend, distributed by Screen Gems (SNE).
Spike Lees "BlacKKKlansman," with John David Washington, Adam
Driver, Laura Harrier, Topher Grace, Alec Baldwin, in which a black police officer in
Colorado, infiltrates the Klan and becomes its leader. Sounds like a fantasy but its
described as a biography, comedy, and crime genre, and specifically, based on the story
& biography of Ron Stallworth, an African-American police officer from Colorado, who
did infiltrate the local Klan and become its head leader. Bought by Blumhouse Productions
& Legendary Entertainment, the film won the 2018 Cannes Film Festival Camera
dOr. Focus Features (CMCSA) is distributing in the US, Universal Pictures (CMCSA)
internationally. "Madelines Madeline," written & directed by
Josephine Decker, distributed by Oscilloscope Laboratories, which bought it at Sundance,
last January. Crystal Moselle wrote & directed "Skate Kitchen," about
female skateboarders, bonding around their sport. Magnolia Pictures (Mark Cuban)
distributing. Is that Will & Jada Smiths son, Jaden Smith n the film?