Russia’s role in piracy crisis a cover for nuclear proliferation: Opposition

posted at 5:35 pm on August 19, 2009 by Ed Morrissey

When I originally saw this story, I wanted to write about how Russia had learned a valuable lesson in dealing with pirates. Instead of negotiating with sea-borne terrorists, Moscow sent its military and captured the missing Arctic Sea after it had disappeared for three weeks. However, Reuters reports that Russian opposition has accused Moscow of ginning up the piracy crisis as a cover to hide potential nuclear proliferation (via Instapundit):

The hijackers of a cargo ship that disappeared off the coast of France threatened to blow it up if their ransom demands were not met, Russian news agencies reported on Wednesday.

Russia on Tuesday arrested eight people on suspicion of hijacking the Arctic Sea off the Swedish coast and sailing it to the Atlantic Ocean, ending weeks of silence about the fate of a ship which has intrigued European maritime authorities.

But:

The official version of events was questioned by Yulia Latynina, a leading Russian opposition journalist and commentator.

“The Arctic Sea was carrying something, not timber and not from Finland, that necessitated some major work on the ship,” she wrote in the Moscow Times newspaper on Wednesday.

During two weeks of repair works in the Russian port of Kaliningrad just before the voyage, the ship’s bulkhead was dismantled so something very large could be loaded, she wrote.

“To put it plainly: The Arctic Sea was carrying some sort of anti-aircraft or nuclear contraption intended for a nice, peaceful country like Syria, and they were caught with it,” she said.

I don’t believe that Russia would have to hide air-defense systems sales to Syria. As far as I’m aware, Syria does not have sanctions on it that would block such sales. However, Russia belongs to the IAEA and is forbidden from selling nuclear-use material to Syria or any other non-nuclear country. Such sales would require a large amount of subterfuge — assuming that’s what this is.

If so, why did the Arctic Sea get stopped from making its delivery? Latynina says that the Russians got “caught” red-handed. Did the US or another naval power intercept the Arctic Sea? Or did the US or the UK get wind of the shipment and threaten to expose it, necessitating a staged act of piracy to cover for its retreat?

Keep an eye on this situation. If the Russians really did seize the pirates rather than negotiate a ransom, then they have done the world a favor. If not — and the position of the Arctic Sea doesn’t exactly fit a piracy scenario — then the US had better recalculate its diplomatic position with Moscow and start demanding a lot more transparency on non-proliferation.

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Wouldn’t normally have to cut out a bulkhead on a ship of this size to accommodate most anti-aircraft missiles. Place them in the hold, cover, batten down the hatches. Done.

Now, a surface-to-surface missile system…on a ship of this size, it is conceivable that a bulkhead could be removed, supports added , and the larger surface to surface system placed in the hold, while not altering the exterior profile of the ship.

All speculation, of course. But, I do not believe this voyage of the Arctic Sea had anything to do with piracy. Perhaps dueling Russian mobs a more likely scenario if not the Russian MoD trying to circumvent the counter-proliferation folks.

The sea lanes it was in when it first “disappeared” and the various sea lanes it had to travel to get to the the Cape Verde Islands are pretty heavily traveled by commercial and military ships.

That almost all information about the Arctic Sea is coming from the Russian MoD…well…we all know how reliable their reporting on the Kursk incident was.

I read this earlier, the information seems pretty sketchy to warrant an article in the NYT. I would love it if this is true and verifiable put appears to be opposition opinion. Regardless this reporter had a lot of nerve saying it out loud considering how they treat dissenters. Especially journalists.

Russia under Putin certainly has a lot less of what it once had, but they are not neutered by any measure. And they are still doing (under Putin) what they used to do best.

Not enough “reset” buttons in the world will dissuade them.

This Administration is being played. Russians in Burma, assisting on “peaceful” nuclear programs? Russians in and out of Iran, doing the same? Russians all over Latin America these days, in numbers not seen since the 80’s? Russia leaning on the EU and the new European states? Russia stirring things up in Georgia once again?

Wait a minute…………are you telling me that I not only can’t trust the Messiah………..but now I can’t trust the Russians? What’s next? Are you going to be telling me Dave Axelrod is a thief? And that the Rev. Wright hates whites? Well I have to believe in something…………let’s see….oh I know…………I am positive that the Messiah was born in Kenya….I mean Russia….I mean Hawaii or something……………

“This naval unit was significantly stronger than that engaged in a
recent Somali piracy crisis, he noted.
The cargo that was on board the Arctic Sea, i.e. timber bound for
Algeria, could have been the best camouflage for arms contraband, Kouts
said.
“A whole alley of guided missiles can easily be hidden under stacks
of timber, because, in order to uncover them, the vessel needs to be
brought to a port, and its hold has to be emptied. They are not so easy
to uncover at sea,” he said. Kouts emphasized that only the transportation of weapons can
explain Russia’s controversial behavior during the incident.
“

You need to read a book called ‘One Second After’ by William Forstchen. Its a fictional account of what would happen to the US (and the rest of the world) in a coordinated EMP attack, but the science is sound. To be honest, I think it paints too rosy of a picture of what would happen to society as a whole in that situation, it will make you think… and scare you.

A ship such as Arctic Sea? Have to worry about center-of-gravity, being even slightly top heavy could cause a fatal roll. Heavy cargo below deck…then a cover (maskirovka) of raw lumber on the deck, plausible. Makes inspection a bit more difficult should any coast guard come along side…would have to remove the on-deck cargo before being able to open the hatches.

Wonder if the Russian MoD or Ministry of Maritime Fleet sent a worldwide “stop and board” message as part of their effort to “locate” the ship?

If this was a “official” sale and not a black market sale from aka Lord Of War. Why was there not an armed contingency of troops acting as civilian crew. My bet is that it was a black market sale that filled some generals pocket and then the higher ups need the pirates story to protect the seller and buyer. It was not any government approved proliferation, the Russians do not need to hide any if they wanted to do it they would.

If this was a “official” sale and not a black market sale from aka Lord Of War. Why was there not an armed contingency of troops acting as civilian crew. My bet is that it was a black market sale that filled some generals pocket and then the higher ups need the pirates story to protect the seller and buyer. It was not any government approved proliferation, the Russians do not need to hide any if they wanted to do it they would.

tjexcite on August 19, 2009 at 6:58 PM

The story I’d heard earlier this week was that the initial intercept was by a submarine, possibly one of the ones that was off our coast a couple weeks ago. That makes the whole “armed fake-crew” idea somewhat moot, if true.

Ees beeg choke on you, comrade. When Spetnaz come knocking on door, you go to gulag, like all liberal fools. Conservatives we do not like, but Conservatives we trust. Liberals are dangerous snake in grass…cannot trust them, ever.

The reality of it all is that while a lot smaller, the Russian military has increased its lethality over the past decade. In an armed confrontation between the US and Russia, today, it’ll be a tough and bloody struggle.

But, Russia does not desire an armed struggle with the US, then, or now. They prefer the easy way…which is why Lavrov had that reaction to the pseudo-Easy button Hillary gave him. Putty in the hands of the Russians, this Obama character. And Hillary confirmed it.

I’ve never had to say that to HotAir before but GDit Eaglespeak and I were trying like hell to get this story noticed for over three weeks. Nobody, but nobody, was listening (except eldenrude?-forgive me my friend).

This story was Tom Clancy on steroids from July 24th on.

Sorry to go all twisted-sister on it but sometimes the bruises on my head make me do funny things.

And I wouldn’t put anything past them. A rational US sailor might not take chances with a cargo transfer on open seas because of the danger to the ship but if it is smuggling…

Look at the tunnels going into israel, from mexico into our country, at all the ways drugs are smuggled into the us, using kids as bomb carriers in Iraq. Our drug dealers even have mini submarines- they do end up on the bottom of the ocean alot-but they have them.

Let me preface this, it’s all speculation, but it fits. The Russian gov’t and military are known for being secretive and devious. Suppose this was some sort of missile/nuclear device under the control of a rogue general or Russian mafia type. The Russians are going to want to find it and neutralise it ASAP, without tipping their hand. If this ship/cargo wasn’t sanctioned by the gov’t., the last thing they’d want would be some sort of attack on the Eastern seaboard that could be traced back to them.
That would go a long way toward explaining why those Russian subs were off our coast. Not only were they a picket line to keep the ship away from us, they made their presence known. They know this is unusual enough that our response is to increase surveillance in the area, increasing the effectiveness of the picket line without us even knowing what is really going on. Basically, they’re using our response to help them find the ship.
Even if the ship was spotted by us, they simply say, hey, we’ve got Spetsnaz on the subs, it’s our ship, we’ll board it and find out what happened. They’re not going to tell us anything they don’t absolutely have to, and would do anything they could to keep something like this under wraps.