Last year Martin had a K/9 of just under 8.5 and a walk rate of around 4.5. His K/9 is good but not elite and his BB/9 is terrible. I suppose the ray of light is that it was his best BB/9 of his career by far. Any improvement at Reading was minor at best and significantly helped by a BABIP against of .241 and a LOB% of 74.8. He is 23 and this year will be his age 24 season.

I have never seen him pitch. I hear his stuff is electric. However, I am not a believer at all. He is #11 on my list. I cannot wait for him to prove me wrong this year!

His walk rate did drop 1.5% after the trade to Reading. I’m not sure how significant that is but it seems like something. Also, of the 18 walks he issued as a Phillie, 7 of them came in one start, so for his other 6 starts he kept the walks in check pretty well. Maybe it was just an anomaly of some sort, but I can see where the optimism comes from.

Its not an anomaly,the problem isn’t that Martin has just generalized control issues from a poor unathletic delivery (Aumont) or just mechanical problem. What happens, is that if he can’t get the breaking ball in for a strike he begins to overthrow the fastball and his delivery well be pushed out of sync and he will be unable to find the strike zone. If he can keep it all mentally there, he is a guy with at least average control. I would be more concern about the lack of change up, and just hope that he makes the blow up games further apart. The guy he really reminds me of is Brandow Morrow, both are mostly fastball/breaking ball, Morrow has a better fastball (can touch 100, Martin only touches 97) but a much more extensive injury history, both can be dominant or absolutely horrendous.

Handzus, thanks for pointing that out. I checked into fangraphs data that I was using and I noticed they did not include his awesome postseason start. If you include that start, his K/9 is 8.7 and his BB/9 is 3.4. Decidedly better!

I recalculated his stats excluding his best and worst starts (the 7 walk start and his postseason start) and got a BB/9 of 2.8 and a K/9 of 8.0. Much better if you look at it that way. Let’s hope he can avoid 7 walk starts in the future and develop a better third pitch.

Cody Asche. This is a guy who in one year’s time skipped Low-A and absolutely dominated in Clearwater and Reading. His play at third is by most accounts decent, and the bat is for real, even if its more likely to produce doubles than home runs. I think he has the highest floor of any Phillies position prospect, and there’s a chance he could turn into a Headley-type player at third.

Headley never hit more than 12 HR in the four full seasons before his breakout last year. I’m not saying Asche is going to ever hit something like 30, but he has gap power and is likely to develop power as he matures.

Despite being a fan of Asche, I’ve been skeptical of some of the higher expectations people put on him. But while 30 HR isn’t likely – 15 to 20 IMO is a more reasonable and even so still slightly optimistic expectation – I wouldn’t rule it out entirely (see Mike’s comment on Headley). Put it this way – I’d say his chance of a 30 HR major league season is greater than his chance of a .320 BA major league season, and that’s even taking into account the greater volitility of BA.

yikes. I don’t agree with that. I’m pretty bullish on Asche mostly because we’ve heard a bunch of varying reports on defense, and if he can play decent defense, than I think he is almost certainly a major league player. But I’ve always thought of BIll Mueller when contemplating Asche’s profile (and conveniently for this post, Bill Mueller did in fact have one regular season with a .320 average but never more than 19 HRs).

Bill Madlock might be a good comp for Asche also. I don’t expect any 30 homer seasons but if he does, it will be with a much lower average after sacrificing average for power. Hopefully, the Phils leave him alone to be a 300 hitter with 40 doubles and 10 homers. Btw – 320 vs 300 is only about 1 more hit per month.

Trying to decide on which way to go here. It is initially between Asche and Martin. I like the floor that Asche has appeared to set for himself, but Martin was near dominant in his time with Reading and i think he has star potential and his floor is pretty high. I am waiting for people to state some cases before i make my decision.

Oh and another thing how much to you guys apply “value” to the prospects ranking? Right now I would think an avg 3b in the majors has more value than an avg (#3) pitcher. I am wondering more about positional vs. pitching not position vs. position. We all know a SS is more valuable than a 1B and so on.

I don’t agree about Martin having that high of a floor. His stint in Reading was dominant, no question, but he’s had major control issues throughout his career that remain a serious red flag. That said, his potential keeps him a bona fide top 10.

Ended up going Martin. I am anticipating his promotion to AAA this year and I am excited to see what the Phil’s pitching coaches do with him with an offseason of work. It really came down to the potential associated with being drafted that High and the signs pointing towards improved control. It still is real close between him and Asche in my mind and now the next 2 for me are Asche and Pettibone.

Tocci is too young for these lists. He hasn’t started shaving yet, is years away from being able to get served alcohol in a restaurant and most importantly Tocci has not had one AB in full season A-ball.

I’m leaning Asche on this vote. Tocci and Pettibone are good choices too, though. Asche projects to be a regular 3B, while Pettibone projects to be a #4 pitcher. I think the regular 3B is more valuable.

I am surprised you are not concerned about Asche’s BABIP. I still need to see another year from him before I buy in completely (that said he is still in my top 10 and I would love to see him do well. And his twitter handle rocks).

I am still high on Pettibone. He doesn’t strike a lot of guys out but he makes up for it with good control and keeping the ball in the park. He throws hard enough and looks like he can handle a starter’s load. I think in 2013 he could be like 2012 Kyle Kendrick, which is not bad at all. If his secondary offerings develop more, which is possible considering his age, he could be even better.

You are right, I am expecting something like Kendrick’s average numbers over the whole year. That said, Kendrick had a FIP of 4.3 for the year and a FIP of 4.0 for the second half of the year. He had a BABIP against of .236 and an LOB% of 81% in the second half. I doubt he is that fortunate for a full season in 2013.

I realize I’m one of the people that is highest on him. But until he gets moved from starting I have to view him ahead of bullpen guys, utility players (Hernandez), guys that may never stay healthy (Gillies), and low level prospects who aren’t named Tocci, LGJ and maybe Watson. Obviously I have Pettibone and Martin ahead of him but next up pitching wise for me is Wright or Watson.

I went Asche again. I think he can be an average starting major league 3B. I can also see Martin here. Really, both Asche and Martin jumped their games up so much in 2012 that I think we will all be watching with fingers crossed in 2013 that it wasn’t a fluke.

I think Martin improved, but I wouldn’t say he jumped his game so much. His K/9 went from the high 9s in 2011 to the low 8s in 2012. However his BB/9 did improve dramatically in 2012.

Biddle (not that we are talking about him, this is just an example) is someone who jumped his game dramatically in 2012 – K/9 went up from mid 8s to mid 9s and BB/9 went down from mid 4s to mid 3s. Lets hope he keeps it up in AA and let’s hope Martin makes a similar improvement in 2013.

I went Martin here but the player issues are becoming more apparent.This vote should be really close.
I like Martin’s upside more than Asche, Ruf, or Pettibone. (I’d pick Tocci but want to push for Martin ahead of the other primary candidates.)

Martin could end up a reliever but as a starter he has #2 upside in my opinion. The control improvement from Reading needs to be maintained.
Asche I still think will be a below average starter, good hitter with no power and average fielding. I think he will end up more of a backup player, but he sounds like the gritty type of player I’d want to root for..
Ruf I have ranked all over the place through the off season trying to find more opinions on his possible upside. I originally thought he’d be nothing more than bench bat but some scouting reports have me believing the bat could be special. His defense will be below average but I think he could reach Pat Burrell type numbers. In WAR that is only worth about 2 per season, though. I still had to keep him in my top 10.
Pettibone I ranked just outside my top10 since I think his low K rate will really hurt him as a starter but he could have a longer career than any of the other 3.

Asche dominated High A as a 22 year old 3rd Baseman, and was promoted midseason. While Ruf was pedestrian as a 23 year old 1st Baseman, and had to repeat the level. These kind of numbers, along with the positional importance, lead me to believe Asche has the higher ceiling and is the better prospect.

I wanted to vote for Ruf to honor his season. It was truly historic. Also, I believe he will contribute 25-30 dingers this season for the Phillies. But no, my head trumped my heart and I went with Ethan Martin because a younger starting pitcher with his stuff could easily rack up more value over a longer career. I think Ruf will be a defensive liability in LF and may not have much more than 5 or 6 seasons at his peak. Martin needs to refine his command but that seems much more likely than any improvements Ruf might make.

If Martin heads to the bullpen then it’s another story. I think he’ll remain a starter and take another solid leap forward.

I may vote Ruf next over Pettibone next but I have to admit I almost picked Pettibone here over Martin. I love Pettibone’s command and savvy, he could be a long time fixture as a 4th starter in a playoff caliber rotation. He just has a great feel for pitching.

I went with Jon Pettibone at #6. He will be a member of the rotation this or next year because he can eat innings and because he has enough of a skill set that he can continue his steady progress to the majors. Whereas Martin has the stuff, but trouble with command, Pettibone’s control and command of his pitches should bode well for him. I think Martin will wind up in the bullpen. Asche is my next in line.

I voted Martin again cause his potential to be a #2 and that’s why I am going for Larry Greene next for his monster power potential…however I see some people ranking prospects by playing it safe with a Pettibone for example…he is close to majors and has a better chance of being a #4 starter than Martin has of being a number #2 starter…but if they both reach their potential who would you rather have? Also I’ve seen the term highest floor…huh?…each and everyone of these prospects can end up in the basement…I rather vote for best case scenario rather than worst case scenarios….just my two cents

Highest floor is simple. Ex. A guy already in AAA has a floor of AAA while a guy in A-, if he flames out, has a floor of A-. A real time example using Pettibone would be ceiling as a 4, but floor would now be long man as he is on the door step of the majors and the case could be made he WILL have some sort of major league career. A guy like Watson does not have the floor of long reliever as his floor could be low A flame out.

I get the concept of a floor but if someone says Asche has a floor of an avg MLB 3rd baseman…it means he will be no worse than an avg 3rd baseman…however there is a chance he never plays in the MLB…so the floor which implies can’t go lower would be wrong…ceiling are based on projections and potential so its understandable…its also very possible to go beyond that ceiling…but giving someone a MLB floor is too much of a guarantee

Nobody’s said Asche’s floor is an average third baseman. If you look through the comments, there are those who say he could very well be an average third baseman, but none have set that as his floor. I mentioned in my post above that I believe he has the highest floor of all the Phillies position prospects, and I stand by it — he is the one I would put my money on if you asked me which would become an everyday regular. But I don’t think anyone here believes it is a foregone conclusion.

I was using Asche as an avg third baseman as an example. I know you were one of the people using the term floor…my comment is the general use of a players floor…I know the point you were trying to make …its just the use of word floor…it implies lowest…and I’m saying every prospects floor is the minors…

This is certainly very true of pitchers in the GCL. A guy with Watson’s pedigree and current stuff is far likelier to flame out due to injury than because he can’t pitch well enough to make the majors in some limited capacity. Look at Knapp. Ceiling (realistically) of a closer and at a stretch #1/2 starter. Floor (and reality) is severely injured and very possibly done.

Martin is a #2 if everything breaks exactly right. Very, very unlikely this happens. I think the control/command holds him back and that those projecting him as a #3 starter or reliever are being far more realistic. He’s not super young and last year was his first good season. I always have a lot of doubt until such a player puts up a second good season. Martin isn’t a guy who has Cole Hamels-type stuff. He doesn’t even have Aumont-type stuff. If he becomes a #3 starter for us, I will be thrilled.

The poll says it’s closed. I logged in at 5:30am. I didn’t get to vote for #6. Only 203 got to vote. My vote won’t change the poll but if there were 500 votes like the rest of the polls so far, it might make a difference.

Right. Visited yesterday afternoon and again early this morning and somehow missed an entire poll during that period. Is this officially closed?

Matt – is it possible to add a running list of our poll results? Not a necessity for the early rounds perhaps, but as we get past pick 10 it would be nice to see a list of those players already voted in

I really feel like Ruf has no place at #6 and that is why I voted for Pettibone and have Martin and Asche next. I believe that whatever WAR Ruf gains with his hitting, he’ll give up with his fielding, and there is no guarantee he is going to hit Right handed pitching, but I’m rooting for him.

I was struggling between Asche and Pettibone, but went with Asche, by a hair because I think, if all goes well, he could be, at his peak, between a 3-5 WAR player, which would be hugely valuable for the Phillies. That said, I like Pettibone a lot more than most. I think, as much as any pitcher the Phils have coming up soon, Pettibone could be helped by Dubee. Right now, it looks like Pettibone’s ceiling is probably a solid #4 or borderline #3, but if he fine-tunes a pitch with deception, such as a plus change-up, he could be even better than that. I know his K/9 rates haven’t been great, but I like his build, his motion, his velocity, and his make-up – so I think he’s going to buck the odds a little bit. Frankly, I think the Phillies believe that, in not too long (by that, I mean May or June), Pettibone will be giving them what Worley gave them and that’s why they were wiling to trade Worley. Otherwise, given Ruben’s penchant for pitching, it would not make sense that he would go with Kendrick and Lannan in the 4/5 slots – which is a bit weak after the big three, especially with the uncertainty surrounding Halladay.

As I’ve said before, I also think Rosenberg will be in the running for a starting slot and will compete with Lannan for that right. Rosenberg has a hell of an arm and would make an intriguing #5 starter. Lannan almost certainly has the inside track but Rosenberg and Pettibone are definitely in the picture.

My guess is that Dubee leaves with Charlie so this is probably Dubee’s last year and last chance to work with Pettibone. My guess is that Cloyd, Pettibone and Lopez start spring training with the big boys as starters before beng assigned to the minors later. Rosenberg has a great chance to be the long man in the pen but he won’t be a major league starter. If the late season version of KK comes back, he was actually very good and I love Lannan in the 5th spot. While I like Pettibone very much, Cloyd will probably get a shot ahead of him (because he was already up last year). So will Lopez who they can add to the 40 man and bring him up in the case of injury and then release him. Of course, Pettibone could change my line of thinking if he has a great start to his AAA season.

I voted for Ruf again and I really hope he pulls this one out so I can move on. I like Pettibone in this spot. I like his size and control. I’m a little concerned about his BB shooting up in AAA, as that might be a sign that he may be a nibbler as he moves to higher levels, but it was a small sample size. I heard a lot of Pettite comparisons for Biddle – and I think Pettibone is of a smilar ilk (I guess Derek Lowe/Jon Garland would be a better comp for a righty). Pettibone should have a nice long career as a 4/5 starter. Pettibone gets the edge over Asche/Martin for me because he has put together 3 solid seasons in a row. I think the Worley trade shows that the front office is comfortable with Pettibone in the back end of the rotation as early as this season and I expect he will be the 6th starter (in AAA) and will get the nod over Cloyd in the case of a call-up.

Went with Ruf. Though the upside may not be as high as others, I would say his floor is much higher as will since he will most likely play a significant role on the Phils this season. He actually will be a major league player (barring anything unforeseen in the next couple months) where a lot of other guys may have more upside, but are further away. I think he’ll hit at least 20 homers. High floor/proximity to majors makes him my vote. I will say that Ruf/Asche/Pettibone/Martin are all bunched together at this point for me

Went with Pettibone at this spot. I just can’t go with Ruf this high because he reminds me too much of Chris Coste. Another older minor league guy who finally got his shot, had a big splash in his debut, and then had a couple of so-so seasons before being out of baseball.

Now Ruf is significantly younger than Coste was so maybe he lasts a little longer but Ruf also plays a position with much higher offensive demands.

I voted for Pettibone here. I always think about that game he threw in August, third of fourth start after his promotion to AAA, where he induced 15 groundball outs. That’s dominant without striking guys out. We’ll see if it translates – I believe it will.

Earlier I had Watson as high as 5, but he’s faded as I put Franco ahead of him and over the weekend put Pettibone ahead as well. Now Watson’s #7, just ahead of Martin on my list. I am really concerned with Martin’s control, as I think everyone is to some extent. While his fairly good half season in Reading doesn’t make me believe he’s figured it out, I do like that he’s got control in there somewhere. Consistency will be the issue.

I personally hope Pettibone or Martin or Asche take the top spot today over Ruf, as I think they deserve to be ahead of him. BA calls him a top 10 prospect, and I can’t argue with the reasonable arguments most people make in his favor. I just don’t think they, when combined with the reasonable arguments against him, amount to a better prospect than many of the guys still left to vote for.

I mentioned the other day that Ruf would win soon, because of a split vote. The 20% Ruf support has been very consistant, while 80% of the vote has voted around Ruf and jumped to other players. The 80% block, was bound to start disagreeing. I thought it would happen at #5, but I think the Baseball prospectus article influenced some opinions on Franco.

Would’ve easily had Pettibone in the top 5. I’m probably in the vast minority and saying that Joseph is a tad overrated on this site….Valle hit a tad better (oh wait, next post will be someone doing their breakdowns and such, oh he was a year older, etc etc etc, shut it) and most of you seem to have written him off as a failure. A guy who plays in SS gets voted in at #2, what a crock. Who knows what Quinn will become, how about give him a year or two and lets see if he’s not a one trick pony. Biddle at #1 is the only sensible thing I can see, lets hope the Phils dont ruin him…….or trade him like they love doing with good prospects.

Dom Brown will be a utter failure and finally his name will be put to rest and RAJ will stop coddling him like a little baby and playing with his titties. Maybe we can finally see a ballplayer in Ruf do some good things this year rather than a athlete like Brown be the failure he already is. You can’t teach stupid, that’s for sure.

This may be the absolute worst comment that did not involve $$$$ symbols. I would actually vote this ahead of many comments that do contain $$$$$ somewhere within and that is saying something. Also, “subhuman” is letting this commentor off a little easy in my opinion.

Yay, Asche is finally going to make it and I get to vote for somebody else. Of the guys already given slots, Ruf is the only one I haven’t had this high. Martin or Pettibone next. Very different pitchers at the same level. I’ll have to review their careers.

I’m not being racist at all, just telling the truth. And I knew my post would lead you guys there cause that is the first thing that will pop into your minds. Get off the Brown Kool-Aid that RAJ has given you, Jim Jones’s people didn’t listen (ok, most were forced, but you get what I am saying), maybe you can.

All the GMs and such get all giddy cause a guy can run a 4.3, or has a 44 inch vertical, or can hit a straight fastball to the moon. There are more intangibles than just athleticism that goes into the making of a ballplayer. People harp on Ruf cause he’s “too slow” and such, but look at Brown. You can be as fast as you can be, but if you cannot read a perfectly easy fly ball, you have no reason even being out there. They play him in right, he sucks, ohhhh, lets coddle him and move him to left. Oh, he sucks there, oh, well playing there is throwing him off.

Listen, I was a big Brown fan probably four years ago, but seeing him in Reading and watching him make bonehead mistakes in the OF way back then was enough for me. Sadly, it seems its just the same old story with him. When he went 1-30 or something in winter ball a year or two ago, instead of staying there and getting a slice of humble pie, RAJ brings him back here. I’d rather have Mayberry hit .245 any day of the week over Brown, at least Mayberry can first off play all three OF positions. Second off, he can play them more than adequately.

Heck, if he puts up a .250/10/40 line this year, I will proclaim its a miracle and I will eat my words. If you think I’m a d—, so be it, I’m not going to sugarcoat anything here and that is all I have to say. Thank you and have a nice and enjoyable evening.

I have a problem. I tried to e mail. Would not let me. Could you please list a e mail on the site. I was on last night and voted for Asche. I just got on tonight a little after 5pm and thinking I was voting on the next slot voted for Ruf and it took my vote. This is a big problem and I thought you needed to know. I would have e mailed if it would let me.

We need preferential voting! It’s a travesty Ruf is going to go before Asche, Pettibone and Martin really considering most of the people who picked one of those three wouldn’t have picked Ruf in a runoff. I don’t even have Ruf in my top 10 to be honest.

Ruf is very hard to slot. It depends largely on how much you believe the reports that he was handling LF well defensively in VZ. I guess also whether or not you view his 2012 stats as a fluke. He’s likely not a long-term major league starter, but he could burn brightly for several seasons. That’s worth quite a lot. That said, I voted Asche and have Ruf below 10, although I’m not sure that is justified.

There’s nothing awful about being a solid #4 starter. I guarantee you we will have guys in the top 10 who turn out to be not as good as that. Pettibone doesn’t have one of the highest ceilings of our top 30 prospects, but his control/command and proximity to the majors makes him one of the highest probability guys to approach his ceiling. Watson may have a higher ceiling, but his chances of ever becoming a solid #4/5 starter are a lot smaller than for Pettibone. A top 10 list must balance ceiling and risk. All primo draft picks start their careers with a high ceiling. What fraction have a major league career of any note.

R-Truth, Thank-you! Especially on your comments on Brown and Ruf.
I used to play the outfield and as I said before on here Its nots that hard,if you’re willing to put the time and effort in to get better.
Now on hitting the small baseball,thats is totally different once you get to AA or higher.

Thats what is the major difference in good big league baseball players,and the rest that never make it.