Learning the wrong lessons from 2001 Elections
By W. James Antle III
web posted November 12, 2001
To paraphrase the late conservative intellectual Richard Weaver,
election results have consequences. The consequences of the
off-year 2001 elections will not be limited to the manner in which
the victors govern; they will have a national impact as future
pretenders to public office ponder their meaning and plan
campaigns accordingly.
Republicans are likely to draw all the wrong lessons from
November 6 and do so at their peril. To review, the GOP lost
the governorship in both Virginia and New Jersey while retaining
the mayor's office in New York City (the Houston mayoral race
will be decided in a runoff). Democratic investor Mark Warner,
who had never before held public office and whose prior political
experience consisted of chairing the state Democratic Party and
a losing Senate race against Republican John Warner, defeated
former Republican attorney general Mark Earley by 52 per cent
to 47 per cent.
Woodbridge Mayor Jim McGreevey, a former Democratic state
senator who narrowly lost to Christine Todd Whitman in 1997,
defeated Republican former Jersey City mayor Bret Schundler
by a more substantial 57 per cent to 42 per cent. Media mogul
Michael Bloomberg came from behind to beat Democratic city
advocate Mark Green, a former aide to Ralph Nader, by 50.4
per cent to 47 per cent.
Schundler and Earley were staunch conservatives who opposed
abortion and many gun control measures. They took a hard line
against taxes, with Schundler in particular being a committed
supply-sider. Bloomberg, on the other hand, is a committed
social liberal. He issued vague assurances that he would continue
many of New York City Mayor Rudolph Giuliani's policies, but
had a lengthy record of donating money to the most liberal
Democrats and only registered as a Republican to enter the
GOP's less crowded mayoral primary.
The conventional wisdom is that these results prove, now more
than ever, that conservatives can't win. Efforts by laudable
organizations like the Republican Liberty Caucus and economist
Stephen Moore's Club for Growth to nominate Republican
candidates who favor smaller government, lower taxes and fewer
regulations will be hobbled by this perception. After all, both
Schundler and Earley pounded the tax issue hard to no avail and
were gun nuts and cat's paws of the fanatical religious right to
boot. Better to nominate people with high name recognition or
lots of money who will wage a "centrist" and "inclusive"
campaign, regardless of whether they actually advocate any
conservative policies one might identity with being a Republican.
How is it inclusive to have campaigns in which both major
candidates agree with each other on all the major issues,
disagreeing with high per centages of the electorate?
The race that this has the most obvious implications for is the
gubernatorial election coming up in California in 2002. Beset by
problems with the economy and energy, Democratic Gov. Gray
Davis' vulnerability grows by the day. Republicans are hungry for
a candidate who can defeat him and revitalize the party's fortunes
in the state. Whether this candidate is a Republican in anything
besides name only matters little.
Enter Richard Riordan, the Michael Bloomberg of the California
governor's race. Once a pro-life Reaganite, he has long since
abandoned that sort of conservatism. He favors abortion on
demand, gun control, domestic partnerships, affirmative action
and a whole host of liberal pet causes. Riordan, who stepped
down as mayor of Los Angeles after two terms earlier this year,
has a history of endorsing and financially supporting Democratic
candidates, including Sen. Dianne Feinstein and, amazingly
enough, Gray Davis in 1998. In fact, he has donated $1 million
to Democratic candidates over the past 20 years, compared to
just $660,000 to Republicans. His campaigns have in the past
been heavily staffed with Democratic consultants, and this year is
no exception: Susan Estrich, Clint Reilly and Pat Caddell are
among the Democrats advising him.
Riordan's overall record as mayor of Los Angeles was certainly
not bad. He managed many of the same innovations that Giuliani
did in New York – he was able to reduce crime, create a more
hospitable business climate and impose fiscal discipline on city
appropriations. He even managed to restore law and order
without substantially alienating Los Angeles' minority
communities, an amazing accomplishment in that city (especially
for a white Republican mayor) and one that alluded even
Giuliani. But conservatism in comparison to the urban
Democratic machines that have been running the United States'
largest cities for decades does not qualify as conservatism
proper nor does it mean that Riordan would pursue policies
radically different from the ones that have failed under Davis.
The candidate in the race who offers the sharpest contrast to
Riordan is Los Angeles business man Bill Simon, son of late
Treasury Secretary William Simon. He is a thorough
conservative touting free-market solutions to California's
problems, as he runs on a platform that is pro-growth, pro-
business and pro-family. In other words, he is the candidate
most like Bret Schundler. (Worse yet for the locals, his
conservatism could even be compared to that of Dan Lungren,
who as state attorney general was thought to be the most
promising conservative politician in California since Reagan but
ran a disastrous gubernatorial campaign in 1998.) Of course, it
may all come down to the following: Sure, Simon is a real
Republican, but Riordan polls better.
That conservatives must necessarily lose elections is a crass, if
deliberate, oversimplification of the 2001 results. In fact, both
McGreevey and Warner worked hard to distance themselves
from liberalism and instead presented themselves as moderates.
Warner promised to oppose any new gun controls in Virginia,
said he would leave the abortion restrictions imposed during the
past eight years intact, opposed same-sex marriage and even
promised (with predictable qualifications about economic
performance) to continue outgoing Gov. Jim Gilmore's efforts to
abolish the commonwealth's hated car tax.
For his part, McGreevey conceded that former Gov. Jim Florio's
disastrous tax increase, which he had defended for a decade,
was "a mistake" and eventually even denied any plans of raising
taxes. Instead, he disputed that Schundler had cut rather than
raised taxes in Jersey City, with polling data appearing to show
that this helped convince voters that Schundler was no more
likely to cut and just as likely to increase taxes as McGreevey.
While McGreevey hit Schundler as an "extremist" on abortion
and gun control, Schundler beat him by ten points among voters
who decided their vote on the abortion issue and the
Republican's stance on issues like the assault weapons ban and
even concealed carry was as likely to irritate Second
Amendment supporters as gun-control backers.
Schundler and Earley ran awful campaigns. Earley was hobbled
by the bickering between Gov. Gilmore and the Republican
leaders in the Virginia legislature and was unable to make a
compelling case to the state's voters that Republicans should
continue in the governor's mansion. Schundler refused to stick to
hitting McGreevey on taxes and instead remained defensive on
guns and abortion and obsessed with discussing policy minutiae
(for an excellent analysis on Schundler's flaws as a candidate and
how he could have used his strengths as a person and office-
holder to overcome them, read Patrick Ruffini's "Schundler
Could've Won" in National Review On-Line
http://www.nationalreview.com/comment/comment-
ruffini110701.shtml). Both men were also sandbagged by
members of their own party, with New Jersey acting Gov.
Donald DiFrancesco behaving especially petulantly ever since
Schundler won the GOP nomination.
Bloomberg was down in the polls by double digits until he
received Rudy Giuliani's late endorsement and the
overwhelmingly popular incumbent mayor began stumping for
him. But his election may be inapplicable to the situations of the
other Republicans elsewhere in the country for other reasons
too, not even limited to his ability to spend $50 million of his own
money on a campaign.
Mark Green, a white liberal, defeated Hispanic Bronx Borough
President Ferando Ferrer in the Democratic primary. Al
Sharpton's endorsement of Ferrer had become an issue, as did
some vote double counting that took place at a polling place
during the primary (although there is no serious dispute of the
fact that Green won the Democratic primary by more than 19,
000 votes). The sum total of these controversies alienated many
minority voters who, despite their opposition to Giuliani for the
past eight years, ended up supporting Bloomberg. Percy Sutton,
owner of the popular black radio station WBLS, The
Amsterdam News and The Daily Challenge were among the
endorsements Bloomberg got from the city's black press.
Bloomberg ended up winning 22 per cent of the black vote
(blacks have voted against Giuliani in the last three mayoral
elections by as much as 97 per cent) and 48 per cent of the
Hispanic vote, tying Green.
In other words, Bloomberg won because he was positioned in
such a way as to win the support of center-right Giuliani
supporters and disaffected, predominantly liberal minority voters
at the same time. This is not a scenario many Republicans are
likely to be able to replicate – including Riordan in his unwise
attempt to write off California's Republican vote.
Treating all elections as if they are the same can only produce
generalizations that may not be useful to another race. If
Republicans nominate bad candidates or candidates who are
good on substance but execute poor campaigns, there will be
election losses. Perhaps other races can be won by candidates
that won't actually advance ostensible GOP policy goals. But
ultimately, Republicans must again be reminded that basing their
political strategy on winning at all costs by appealing to
opponents rather than galvanizing supporters is a blueprint for
failure.
W. James Antle III is a senior writer for Enter Stage Right and
can be reached at wjantle@enterstageright.com.
Enter Stage Right - http://www.enterstageright.com