Exchange-rate shifts have helped the global economy

STICKLERS for value have plenty of reasons to frown at financial markets. Much feels out of whack, from squashed bond yields to pricey stockmarkets. Yet currency markets, at least, seem to have shifted in line with fundamentals this year. Take the euro, for instance. Since the start of 2017 it has risen by almost 15% against the dollar, to $1.19 (see chart). That has taken it much closer to fair value by benchmarks such as purchasing-power parity (PPP), the exchange rate at which a basket of goods is worth the same in different countries. The OECD puts the euro’s PPP at $1.33. That is quite a stretch from $1.04 in January. “The elastic had to snap back,” says Kit Juckes of Société Générale, a French bank.

Of course, the euro’s revival is a result of more than its being cheap. The anxiety that elections in Europe might bring to power anti-euro populists, such as Marine Le Pen in France, has dissipated. The euro-zone economy has further strengthened, raising the prospect that monetary...Continue reading

STICKLERS for value have plenty of reasons to frown at financial markets. Much feels out of whack, from squashed bond yields to pricey stockmarkets. Yet currency markets, at least, seem to have shifted in line with fundamentals this year. Take the euro, for instance. Since the start of 2017 it has risen by almost 15% against the dollar, to $1.19 (see chart). That has taken it much closer to fair value by benchmarks such as purchasing-power parity (PPP), the exchange rate at which a basket of goods is worth the same in different countries. The OECD puts the euro’s PPP at $1.33. That is quite a stretch from $1.04 in January. “The elastic had to snap back,” says Kit Juckes of Société Générale, a French bank.

Of course, the euro’s revival is a result of more than its being cheap. The anxiety that elections in Europe might bring to power anti-euro populists, such as Marine Le Pen in France, has dissipated. The euro-zone economy has further strengthened, raising the prospect that monetary...Continue reading