BetBright STATZONE: Saturday ITV Racing (2nd Feb 2018)

Welcome to the BetBright STATZONE, where we give you the stats and you make the decisions!

More LIVE ITV Racing to get stuck into this Saturday as the cameras head to Sandown, Wetherby and Musselburgh to take in seven races across the three venues. At Sandown the Scilly Isles Novices’ Chase is their feature – a contest the classy that jockey Daryl Jacob has won for the last four years, plus a contest that we’ve seen 10 of the last 15 favourites win.

Up at Wetherby (abandoned) we’ve the Towton Novices’ Chase – a race that 9 of the last 14 winners were aged 7 years-old, while up in Scotland it’s Scottish County Hurdle day at Musselburgh (abandoned) – 6 year-olds have won 9 of the last 12 renewals.

So, as always, we’ve got it all covered here on STATZONE with all the key trends, plus our verdict, on each of the LIVE ITV races – we’re confident these trends will point you in the direction of a few winners, or at least help narrow down some of the field to highlight the horses that fit the best profile of past winners – So, let’s get cracking!

Sandown Horse Racing Betting Trends (ITV/RUK)

1.15 – 888Sport Bet £10 Get £30 Handicap Chase Cl2 1m7f119y

12/12 – Priced 10/1 or shorter
12/12 – Raced within the last 8 weeks
11/12 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
10/12 – Raced within the last 4 weeks
9/12 – Had won between 1-4 times over fences before
9/12 – Aged 9 or younger
9/12 – Winning distance – 2 lengths or more
7/12 – Winners that went onto run at that season’s Cheltenham Festival (no winners)
6/12 – Had run over fences at Sandown before (3 won)
6/12 – Winners that went to race in that season’s Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Chase
5/12 – Carried 10-10 or less
5/12 – Raced at Sandown last time out
5/12 – Came from outside the top 4 in the betting
4/12 – Aged 7 years-old
4/12 – French bred
4/12 – Had an official rating of exactly 125
3/12 – Won last time out
3/12 – Trained by Venetia Williams
3/12 – Ridden by Aidan Coleman
3/12 – Winning favourites
2/12 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
The average winning SP in the last 9 runnings is 9/2

STATZONE VERDICT:

BEST BET: GINO TRAIL
Danger: DOLOS

1.50 – 888Sport Contenders Hurdle (Listed Race) Cl1 (4yo+) 2m ITV4

8/8 – Finished in the top 4 last time out
8/8 – Had run in the last 6 weeks
8/8 – Had won over 2m (hurdles) before
7/8 – Returned 11/4 or shorter in the betting
6/8 – Won between 2-5 times (hurdles)
7/8 – French bred
5/8 – Aged 5 or 6 years-old
5/8 – Winning favourites
5/8 – Rated 161 or higher
5/8 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
3/8 – Ran at Ascot last time out
2/8 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
3/8 – Won last time out
Buveur D’Air won the race in 2017 and 2018

15/15 – Priced 9/2 or shorter in the betting
15/15 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
15/15 – Won no more than 3 times over fences before
15/15 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
14/15 – Raced within the last 6 weeks
14/15 – Finished in the top 2 last time out
13/15 – Aged 7 or younger
13/15 – Won between 1-3 times over fences before
11/15 – Placed favourites
11/15 – Winners that went onto run at that season’s Cheltenham Festival (no winners)
10/15 – Winning distance – 2 lengths or more
10/15 – Winning favourites
9/15 – French bred
6/15 – Aged 7 years-old
5/15 – Irish bred
5/15 – Ran at Cheltenham last time out
5/15 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
4/15 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
4/15 – Had run over fences at Sandown before
4/15 – Winners that went onto finish in the top 5 in the RSA Chase
4/15 – Ridden by Daryl Jacob (last 4 winners)
3/15 – Ridden by Barry Geraghty
2/15 – Ridden by Ruby Walsh
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 7/4

STATZONE VERDICT:

BEST BET: DEFI DU SEUIL
Danger: LOSTINTRANSLATION

3.00 – 888Sport Heroes Handicap Hurdle (Grade 3) Cl1 2m7f98y ITV

13/13 – Had run in the last 8 weeks
13/13 – Won by a horse aged 9 or younger
12/13 – Won over at least 2m4f (hurdles) previously
11/13 – Carried 10-12 or less in weight
10/13 – Officially rated 135 or lower
10/13 – Won between 2-3 times over hurdles previously
10/13 – Winners that went to race at the Cheltenham Festival that season
10/13 – Winning distance – 2 ½ lengths or shorter
9/13 – Winners that came from the top 3 in the market
9/13 – Priced 13/2 or less
8/13 – Won by a horse aged 7 or younger
8/13 – Won by an Irish-bred horse
7/13 – Favourites placed
4/13 – Raced over hurdles at Sandown previously (3 won)
4/13 – Won their last race
5/13 – Favourites that won
4/13 – Won by a French-bred horse
4/13 – Raced at Cheltenham last time out
4/13 – Won by the Paul Nicholls yard
2/13 – Won by the Philip Hobbs yard
2/13 – Ridden by Richard Johnson
1/13 – Winners that went onto win at that season’s Cheltenham Festival (Ryanair Chase, 2007 Taranis)

STATZONE VERDICT:

BEST BET: KEEPER HILL
Danger: BALLYMOY

3.35 – 888Sport Masters Handicap Chase Cl2 3m110y ITV

14/15 – Carried 11-5 or less
13/15 – Had won over at least 3m (fences) before
13/15 – Had raced within the last 8 weeks
12/15 – Aged 9 or younger
11/15 – Had won between 1-3 times over fences (UK) before
10/15 – Rated 136 or lower
9/15 – Favourites placed in the top 4
8/15 – Had raced at Sandown before (4 won)
8/15 – Placed last time out
8/15 – Irish-bred
7/15 – Came from outside the top 3 in the betting
6/15 – Raced at either Sandown (3) or Haydock (3) last time out
6/15 – Winning favourites
5/15 – Winners that went onto run at that season’s Cheltenham Festival (no winners)
5/15 – French-bred
3/15 – Winners that went onto finish unplaced in that season’s Grand National
2/15 – Trained by Lucy Wadham (2 of last 5)
2/15 – Trained by Venetia Williams (2 of last 5)

STATZONE VERDICT:

BEST BET: BELAMI DES PICTONS
Danger: SHANROE SANTOS

Wetherby Horse Racing Betting Trends (ITV/RUK)

2.40 – William Hill Towton Novices´ Chase (Grade 2) Cl1 3m1f ITV

13/14 – Aged 8 or younger
12/14 – Had never raced over fences at Wetherby before
11/14 – Priced 3/1 or shorter in the betting
11/14 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
11/14 – Had won over at least 3m (fences) before
11/14 – Raced within the last 7 weeks
10/14 – Won between 1-2 times over fences before
9/14 – Aged 7 years-old
9/14 – Raced at either Cheltenham (6) or Warwick (3) last time out
9/14 – Placed favourites
9/14 – Irish bred
7/14 – Won last time out
7/14 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
6/14 – Winners that went onto run in that season’s RSA Chase (1 winner, Blaklion 2016, plus all finished 6th or better)
2/14 – Trained by Ian Williams

STATZONE VERDICT: ABANDONED

Musselburgh Horse Racing Betting Trends (ITV/RUK)

11/12 – Returned 15/2 or less in the betting
10/12 – Won between 1-2 times over hurdles before
11/12 – Had won over this trip before (hurdles)
9/12 – Aged 6 years-old
8/12 – Former flat horses
8/12 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
7/12 – Carried 11-0 or less
7/12 – Rated between 120-130
7/12 – Favourites placed in the top 4
2/12 – Winning favourites
2/12 – Won last time out

STATZONE VERDICT: ABANDONED

3.15 – bet365 Edinburgh National Handicap Chase Cl2 4m176y

Only two previous runnings
2/2 – Carried 10-9 or less in weight
2/2 – Priced between 6/1 and 10/1 in the betting
0/2 – Winning favourites
Trainer Sandy Thompson won the race 12 months ago
Trainer Paul Nicholls has a 60% strike-rate with his chasers at the track
Trainer Tim Vaughan has a 27% strike-rate with his chasers at the track
Trainer Sandy Thompson has a 26% strike-rate with his chasers at the track
Full Jack won the race in 2018
Dancing Shadow (6/1) won the race in 2017