A Huge Housing Boom That’s Created A Huge Excess Supply Of Homes

It’s Friday desk clearing time for this blogger. “Andrew Bauer, deputy regional executive for the Richmond Federal Reserve Bank’s Baltimore branch said the weakness of Maryland’s housing market ‘astounds’ him. We’re not a state like some of the other states in the country where they have a huge housing boom that’s created a huge excess supply of homes,’ Bauer said. ‘In those states, you would expect to see serious reckoning in terms of trying to deal with inventory.'”

“Las Vegas homebuilders last year booked the most sales in more than a decade as buyers paid record prices, but the market is forecast to cool off in 2019. Home Builders Research President Andrew Smith expects closings and permits to drop by roughly 5 percent this year and prices to flatten and eventually slide. ‘Yes we are saying these numbers will decrease,’ he wrote, ‘but that by no means should be interpreted as a sign of a major problem in the making.'”

“Today, Manhattan is truly a buyers’ market, with some of the biggest declines the market has seen since the Great Recession of 2008. In the past three months, the median condo sales price has fallen by 8.1% to $1.48 million. This decline is a whopping 19.8% lower than the peak prices of Q1 2016. To put this into perspective, condo prices have declined as much from this peak as they did back in 2008-2009 during the Great Recession.”

“Historically, Manhattan has been one of the last markets to fall and the first to recover, but this cycle things seem to be playing out differently. Other housing markets are just now starting to falter, while Manhattan has been in decline since 2015.”

“Home sales markets in local neighborhoods mirrored Houston’s mixed bag in December but ran in stark contrast with its pricing as all markets displayed falling home prices.”

“Big drop in home sales in Sonoma County: the numbers are out for 2018, and it’s a significant decline. Those looking for homes after the wildfires drove the market in 2017 and early 2018, and raised median prices to a high of 700-thousand dollars last summer. The median price dropped to 639-thousand in December, and the number of homes sold last year dropped by nearly 350 units. Similar trends are being felt thru-out the Bay Area.”

“For years, it’s been impossible to find a detached home in the Vancouver for less than $1 million, but it appears that’s starting to change. The house at 1578 East 22nd Ave. is priced at $998,000 – despite being assessed in July at a value of $1.26 million. The home’s previous assessment was even higher, at $1.32 million.”

“The house on 22nd near Knight Street first hit the market last fall at $1.15 million, but the price was recently dropped. ‘In December we saw that the market had shifted and we adjusted the price to where we are now, at $998,’ realtor Shelly Smee told CTV News.”

“When buy-to-let was at its peak in 2007, around 183,000 mortgages were approved to landlords looking to invest in new properties each year, according to UK Finance. New figures suggest the number of buy-to-let mortgages given out in 2018 plunged below 70,000. On top of this, existing landlords are offloading around 3,800 properties a month, Ministry of Housing figures show.”

“Higher-rate taxpayer Paul Atkinson, says the new rules mean he will barely break even. ‘If someone offered us a good price for the properties, we’d probably sell. At best we are breaking even now, but going forward we will have to subsidise the properties,’ he said.”

“New condo supply in Pattaya being launched this year should not exceed 5,000 units as more than 12,000 units remain unsold, the highest since 2015, according to a property consultant. Phattarachai Taweewong, senior manager of Colliers International Thailand’s research department, said the sheer size of unsold condo units stems largely from massive supply last year.”

“Mr Phattarachai said the Pattaya condo market has been slowing down since 2015. Before 2015, new supply of more than 15,000 units was launched every year. The large supply remaining unsold weakened the confidence of both buyers and developers. ‘Developers should be more cautious of new supply launches as most buyers in the Pattaya condo market are investors expecting attractive yields. Very few buyers purchased for personal use,’ he said. ‘If the economy slows down and yield is not as good as expected, these buyers may refuse to accept unit transfers.'”

“Hong Kong developer Sino Land managed to sell only 75 per cent of apartments put up for sale at heavy discounts at its Mayfair by The Sea 8 development in Tai Po. By 3pm on Wednesday, it had sold 171 out of a first batch of 228 units. At an average price of HK$13,228 (US$1,686) per square foot after the discount in the first price list, the property is going for 26.5 per cent less than the HK$18,000 fetched by St Martin, another Tai Po project launched in June last year.”

“A 925 sq ft apartment in Park Yoho Genova in Yuen Long sold for a loss of HK$2.88 million, or 24.3 per cent, on Tuesday, excluding stamp duties of HK$900,000. Its eventual selling price of HK$9 million, or HK$9,730 per square foot, was also about 35.6 per cent less than the average price of about HK$15,100 per square foot fetched at the neighbouring development of Park Yoho Napoli this month.”

“An NAB survey of 2,000 Australian consumers found most do not think it is a good time to sell their home or investment property. ‘Consumers are far more uncertain about the future — around four in 10 said they simply didn’t know if it would be a good time to buy, sell, renovate or take out a mortgage,’ NAB chief economist Alan Oster said.”

“Mr Oster, said this view was broadly consistent across states, although a much higher proportion in Western Australia said it was not a good time to sell their home. ‘We suspect this is influenced by the fact that some home owners in WA may also be sitting on capital losses,’ he said. ‘This very poor result was not unexpected given what’s been happening on house prices.'”

The traffic and congestion in this area is beyond the breaking point. Your saying that a “few more” units and a “few more” cars will add to the ‘character’ of the neighborhood?

BTW, REIC, when you host an open house, be sure to leave out a few gift baskets on the front lawn for the homeless passing through and be glad someone doesn’t pitch a tent on your front lawn. Just a way of saying “Welcome to Culver City”

Ha, this is what’ happening to Whidbey Island WA where the homeless Heroin addicts are continuing to increase and take up residents in tents on private property where there is acreage. There is little the authorities seem to be able to do about it. Drug crime continues to increase where local watch groups have taken to video taping crimes and e-mailing them to the authorities real time as well as posting to Facebook with an entire page dedicated to these issues.

That listing is nuts, based solely on proximity to downtown Culver City. But, whoever looks at this place (unless they HAVE to live in Culver City for schools or other reason) would have to look at options in neighboring zip codes too and they would find something like this listing, which is bigger move-in ready if you are not picky. You don’t even have to bother removing old carpet and refinishing floors. And it already has a price reduction in a neighborhood that some would consider a step up from Culver City.

I guess what I am saying is that Culver City listing does not have a chance in hell to sell at that price unless someone really wants to live on that street. It won’t be long before the real buyers who remain on the market will be doing this legwork of comparing listings from nearby zip codes one step up and one step down from your main focus. I don’t know if it is scientific per se, but I know exactly what counts as “a little better” and a “a little worse” location in my area, and I always browse listings in the “dream zip code”. I am sure I am not the only one, and I have begun to see fleeting listings in that zip code at the same price per square foot as the neighborhood where I rent (those still go fast).
It is all going to get very interesting unless the Fed can engineer another credit binge.

From the Culver City Observer in California. “The median price of a single-family home in the state reached a record $600,860 in May, the California Association of Realtors said last week, while prices in Culver City and the rest of the Los Angeles Metro Area jumped 2.9 percent from the previous month and a whopping 9.3 percent from a year earlier. Separately, though, figures published by Zillow this week suggest that many of the houses and condos that are currently for sale in Culver City are already in the foreclosure or pre-foreclosure process.”

“There were 86 Culver homes for sale at the start of this week, Zillow reported, but dozens of them were either in foreclosure or in pre-foreclosure proceedings. Real estate economists blame the slow but steady rise of foreclosure and pre-foreclosure offerings across the nation on a variety of factors. Some buyers in the last one or two years have over-extended their borrowing power, experts say, to purchase a house before prices could move even higher. Others have seen their original monthly housing bills rise sharply because payments on their adjustable-rate mortgage, or ARM, have moved higher in lock-step with this year’s climbing interest rates.”

“Consumers and property professionals’ expectations of further falls in house prices are leaving them anxious, with a new survey finding more Australians are opting to renovate rather than sell their homes over the coming year.”

???

Let’s look at this again:

Consumers and property professionals – PROPERTY PROFESSIONALS – expect prices to fall furthur. Because of this expectation of a furthur price decline they plan not to sell but to spend more money on the property in the form of renovations.

Consumers and property professionals – PROPERTY PROFESSIONALS – expect prices to fall furthur. Because of this expectation of a furthur price decline they plan not to sell but to spend more money on the property in the form of renovations.”

“That bubble is deflating rapidly, against a background of low interest rates and low unemployment.”

At the start of the last bubble, did home prices start to decline BEFORE unemployment began to rise, as we’re seeing in this bubble? Or did unemployment start to rise THEN home prices started to decline?

It looks like the economy was STRONG because of the housing bubble. Once the bubble pops, the economy went to Hell lol. Now it’s different. We don’t have a housing bubble. We have a Everything Bubble! Wait until that pops!

Parts of America’s mortgage market are in turmoil. Some on Wall Street see this as an opportunity. Others are biting their nails
Print edition | Finance and economics
Dec 13th 2006
| new york

MORTGAGE lending is hardly the raciest business, but it has its moments. “It’s a bit like the definition of combat: 59 minutes of boredom followed by a minute of sheer terror,” says Michael Youngblood, an analyst at Friedman, Billings, Ramsey, an investment bank. “And we seem to be going through another one of those minutes now.”

What has set pulses racing is subprime lending—mortgages extended at higher than normal rates to those with weak credit histories. In America, where it is most advanced, this market is under a lot of strain, and so, by extension, is the giant asset-backed securities market that is linked to it. The market for prime mortgages (those extended to higher-quality borrowers) is faring better, though it, too, is showing signs of weakness, exacerbated by cooling house prices. Might these troubles, some wonder, be the canary in the mine, warning of a looming credit crunch as investors, for years free with their money, recoil from risk?

Once a backwater, subprime is now very much in the mainstream. Annual loan originations grew fivefold between 2001 and 2005, to $625 billion, according to Inside Mortgage Finance, a newsletter.

But with rapid growth has come fragility. According to UBS, the rate of subprime-loan delinquencies of 60 days or more stood at around 8% in October, nearly double the rate of a year before. Foreclosures are also around twice as high as they were. Worse, loans are decaying remarkably quickly: the number of borrowers falling behind on payments in the first few months has leapt, to around 4% of the total. This has taken some analysts by surprise. But Anthony Sanders, finance professor at Ohio State University’s Fisher College of Business, thinks they should have seen it coming: “With the traditional mortgage market flat, the growth has been in the one area nobody wanted to go into.”

This is already producing casualties. A number of mid-sized mortgage firms have failed in recent weeks. The latest, on December 7th, was Ownit Mortgage Solutions, the 17th-largest subprime lender. Others—such as H&R Block’s Option One Mortgage—are for sale, their owners keen to leave the business. Earlier this month, in another bad sign, KeyCorp sold its subprime arm, Champion, for an undisclosed sum thought to be well below the $200m-250m tag analysts had put on it.

These troubles did not come out of the blue. Their origins lie in 2004, when some of the big subprime lenders began to compete hard for market share. By late 2005, this battle had pushed rates for ropy borrowers down to a little over 7%. This led to a boom in new business as thousands scrambled onto the housing ladder.

But the Federal Reserve had already started raising short-term interest rates, flattening the yield curve, the difference between short and long rates. (Since banks borrow short and lend long, their margins are higher when the curve is steep.) When this began eating into lenders’ profits, they reacted by pushing subprime rates back up. This time, though, they could not attract the same quality of borrower as before: with the housing market looking vulnerable, only the desperate were willing to borrow at interest rates of over 8%.

The lenders compounded their problems greatly by loosening their underwriting standards in a further attempt to keep business chugging along. Sometimes these were waived altogether. Adding insult to imprudence, they lured borrowers with “alternative” mortgage products, such as “negative amortisation” deals (where payments are so low that the overall debt gets bigger, not smaller) and adjustable-rate products (where teaser rates jump after a couple of years). Mark DiRienz of Moody’s, a rating agency, says the “payment shock” was made worse by rules that allowed lenders to go from a low introductory rate straight to one much higher than the prevailing rate.

New subprime lending has tailed off this year as mortgage firms have, belatedly, become fussier about whom they will serve. They say they will plough more resources into vetting applications but, as Mr Youngblood points out, this would raise their costs. There is no easy way out.

Moody’s and other debt-raters have cast a worried eye over the market, placing subprime deals on watch for a possible downgrade. Regulators are also twitchy. They have stepped up warnings about slack lending standards.

Nerves are also jangling in the capital markets. These days large numbers of housing loans are moved off banks’ books, bundled together as so-called mortgage-backed securities (MBSs) and sold to investors. In theory, this helps the banks to reduce risk, makes money for intermediaries who trade the securities, and allows the investors to pick tranches of debt that match their risk appetite. Thanks to financial alchemy, an MBS made up of low-quality loans can still enjoy a good credit rating.

If too many of the home loans backing the security are toxic, however, investors will feel pain. That is happening now. The ABX Home Equity 06-2 index, whose price reflects the market’s view of bonds rated BBB-minus backed by subprime loans made earlier this year, has fallen sharply since mid-November (see chart). Hedge funds and others have been using derivatives to short bonds backed by subprime mortgages.

Dubious mortgages are now a growing share of the mortgage-backed market, so there is scope for more trouble. Of the $1.02 trillion of MBSs issued in the first half of this year, over 40% was linked to subprime loans, up from 6-8% in 2000-03, says CreditSights, a research boutique.

In a sign of how important the MBS market has become to Wall Street’s big securities firms, they are playing a lead role in consolidating the subprime business. Since the summer, Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch and Bear Stearns have all bought mortgage lenders; Lehman Brothers has acquired several in the past three years.
…

While I was on gulf coast last week, I would up not having time to check out any open houses – the storms and weather threw my schedule off.

However, I did have an interesting exchange from the lady who’s beach-side condo I was renting. She volunteered without my directly asking that she was wanting to sell the condo, and going to do it right away as her realtor told her “Things are down 30 percent and going to get worse”.

What sort of Realtor(tm) is breaking ranks and telling potential sellers non-rosy stories of a falling market? That might spook the herd and the other 1000+ active listings on the island…

What a realtor has going for him is a customer base of totally dumbed-down ignorant pukes. These pukes know nuthin’ about real estate and thus they depend on the infinite wisdom of a Liscensed Real Estate Professional.

The main tool utilized by this Liscensed Real Estate Professional is the English language, IOW words. Words that work.

If these words-that-work happen to be truthful words then he, this Liscensed Real Estate Professional, will be granted a sales commission. If these words-that-work are composed of ugly, blantant, neferious evil lies then these are the words that this Liscensed Real Estate Professional will use. The result is the same: a sales commission.

If an ignorant puke were to, say, arrive on a used car lot and was to pick out a car, any car, and then ask the attending used car salesman the question: “Should I buy this car?”, what sort of response should the puke expect to receive?

If this same ignorant puke were to arrive on the scene of a house that was for sale and ask the realtor the same sort of question, which would be: “Should I buy this house?”, again, what sort of response should the puke expect to receive?

The agent needs a commission and a smaller commission is always better than no commission.

But by telling sellers unequivocally that the market is falling, they are basically saying “be one of the first ones to make it to the exits so you don’t get trapped”. They don’t care about keeping a happy face on things anymore – some of them at least know it’s going to be blood bath and every agent for themselves.

And by saying it out loud, the people the agent tells are going to turn around and tell other people (like me, unprompted) that “My realtor told me the market is tanking!” and the informal gossip and negative feedback loops are only going to get bigger.

The Republicans have the option to close the government again on February 15 if they don’t get their way by then, and Trump will presumably have the chance to give the SOTU address and appeal directly to the U.S. voter to make his case before then.

He opened because most Americans blame him for the shutdown, not the democrats. And the impact on the economy during a shutdown get progressively worse as time goes on. If it were to have lasted one or two more weeks, there is a real chance it would have shown up in the data and he would be blamed for the impending recession. He can’t have that, even if we are overdue for a slowdown as QE is withdrawn. He needs Powell as the fall guy.

C’mon, no one wants “open” borders (except builders and meat processing plants) They stop the caravan didn’t they? Some people just want the money well spent and go after drugs, and emp[loyers hiring illegals, landlords renting to illegals….etc. Not a vanity wall that is defeated with 2 ladders. no blank check.

“If the GOP really wanted a wall they had 2 yrs to pass it ”
“If the GOP really wanted a wall they had 2 yrs to pass it ”
“If the GOP really wanted a wall they had 2 yrs to pass it ”
“If the GOP really wanted a wall they had 2 yrs to pass it ”

“Cash-strapped and saddled with student loans and other debt, millennials — a generation of more than 70 million now in their 20s and 30s — have delayed buying a home later than their parents did, but their participation is crucial in buoying home sales.”

“Among those indicators: although home values have risen sharply since the teeth of the recession, when compared to values from 2005 the increase has been moderate — just 9 percent. That’s the lowest increase in any Western state.”

Im sure income has risen at least 9% for the last 8 years or so….BTW those western states are also in MASSIVE Bubble…like CA, WA, OR, etc.

The usual “experts” purport not to understand why home sales are rapidly slowing. It’s not rocket science, REIC shills. People aren’t buying overpriced shacks because they can’t afford to. It’s as simple as that.

“The Wall Street bankers who feast during recessions say there’s a ‘smell in the air’ and it’s starting to feel like 2007”

😁

“The global economy is growing and corporate defaults are low and projected to drop even further.”

Bummer 🤐

Oh, wait …

“Yet the Wall Street investment bankers who feast during recessions are optimistic about their business, and some say it’s starting to feel like it did just before the financial crisis.

😁

“Top restructuring firms have been filling out their rosters of talent to be prepared in case of an economic recession.
Restructuring bankers told Business Insider that a massive amount high-yield debt issued in recent years could produce defaults and keep them busy even without a recession.
Another source of optimism: The restructuring business has changed since the last financial crisis, with firms finding year-round work across the globe by providing solutions to companies before they get to bankruptcy court.”

“BuzzFeed announced Wednesday that it would lay off 15% of its workforce, or about 220 employees; Verizon announced it would cut 7% or approximately 800 jobs from its media division, which includes brands like HuffPost, AOL and Yahoo News; and Gannett slashed dozens of jobs at newspapers across the country.

In his note to staff, Jonah Peretti, BuzzFeed’s co-founder and chief executive, referenced the difficult news environment. He said the company was restructuring to put it on “firm foundation” to deal with the “evolving economics of digital platforms.”

End birthright citizenship. That’s the solution, and DJT is right to support it. It whacks two birds with one stone. The appeal of southern border crossing and birthing tourism get whacked with one fell swoop.

I would be happy if a wall stopped the 2 different illegal alien who ran into 2 of my vehicles at different times. One of my vehicles was parked and the other had a family member in it when it they were rear ended by a drunk illegal with no valid drivers licence, registration or insurance (both of them) family member injured and the police said when they took that one to jail (from where he was released 4 days later after paying a $500 fine) none of this will get your car fixed or medical bills paid.

“Every one who has had the misfortune to talk with people in the heart or on the edge of mental disorder, knows that their most sinister quality is a horrible clarity of detail; a connecting of one thing with another in a map more elaborate than a maze. If you argue with a madman, it is extremely probable that you will get the worst of it; for in many ways his mind moves all the quicker for not being delayed by the things that go with good judgment. He is not hampered by a sense of humour or by charity, or by the dumb certainties of experience. He is the more logical for losing certain sane affections. Indeed, the common phrase for insanity is in this respect a misleading one. The madman is not the man who has lost his reason. The madman is the man who has lost everything except his reason.”
– G.K. Chesterton

Not so much. An answer for everything, sure. One of the hallmarks of mania is lack of insight which includes not being able to predict the probable outcome of their actions. I wouldn’t call that “logical”.

I find this true in some regards. I’ve had patients who were having an acute psychosis and they make a lot of sense in some of their ramblings, but they have poor insight and are emotionally unstable. Most of the ramblings are delusions about government, religion, conspiracies, but occasionally there are some nuggets of truth interspersed in there.

Hamptons greedheads, spoiled by years of being the primary beneficiaries of the Fed’s QE, seem to expect that QE4 will be announced any day now to re-inflate their plunging shack prices. It would be a pity if they were wrong.

In 2009, in the midst of the real estate housing crisis, divorced real estate broker Cassie Fowler resides in the small town of Harding, Arizona with her 14 year-old daughter Morgan. Due to little interest in people wanting to buy homes, Cassie spends most of the time in the office with her aggressive boss Gary(Seth Rogen).

One day, after dropping her daughter off at school, she arrives at the office late and is ridiculed by Gary. While Cassie is on the phone with a debt collector regarding the potential foreclosure of her own home, a client named Sonny (Danny McBride) enters the office enraged at Gary because the house he was sold is losing value, and proceeds to engage in a heated argument. Still on the phone, Cassie goes to the room next door in order to hear the caller better as the argument between Sonny and Gary turns into a more aggressive fight.

The physical fight ends when Sonny pushes Gary over a ledge and he falls to his death. Cassie, however, witnesses the fight, and Sonny sees her in the office space. Knowing she knows what happened, Sonny tries to convince her not to call the cops or an ambulance. When she refuses to do what he asks, Sonny then proceeds to knock her unconscious, and take her to his house where he ties her up.
ARIZONA Official Trailer (2018) Danny McBride, Luke Wilson Comedy