Do not tell Mirjalol Kasimov that he is close to guiding his country to the World Cup for the first time in their history. Because he has heard that before, only for Uzbekistan's hopes to crumble following an unprecedented decision by Fifa. So Kasimov will not be counting any chickens as he prepares for Tuesday's match in South Korea, where victory would send the White Wolves to Brazil.

Kasimov's previous flirtation with World Cup qualification came in 2005, when he scored the only goal in a first-leg play-off victory over Bahrain. Uzbekistan believed they should have won that match by more because after they had a penalty chalked off for encroachment, the Japanese referee misapplied the rules by ordering a freekick to Bahrain rather than a retake. Uzbekistan protested to Fifa, calling for the match to be forfeited, which would have meant awarding the wronged team a 3-0 win. Instead Fifa ordered a replay and this time Bahrain drew 1-1 and, after the second leg ended 0-0, Uzbekistan lost on away goals (Bahrain went on to be beaten by Trinidad & Tobago in a final play-off).

Brazil would be a fitting destination for a man who has previously worked in the shadow of Zico and Luiz Felipe Scolari. Both of those were lavish imports to FC Bunyodkor, the Tashkent team that was set up in 2005 and fleetingly flaunted pretensions at becoming a global force, famously offering Samuel Eto'o $25m to come and play for a few months in 2008. The Cameroonian turned them down, though Bunyodkor did lure a host of Brazilians, including Zico and Scolari as managers and a 36-year-old Rivaldo to patrol midfield (where he came second in Uzbekistan's 2009 Player of the Year awards).

Bunyodkor were funded by an oil and gas company close to the despotic regime of the country's president, Islam Karimov, who has held a grip on power since before independence in 1991 and has been denounced by human rights activists for corruption, torture and murder. The precise workings of Bunyodkor was always nebulous but it was generally believed that the club was run by, or for the greater glory of, the president's eldest daughter, Gulnara Karimova.

Kasimov was appointed manager in 2007 and led the club to the semi-finals of Asian Champions League in their first appearance in the competition before losing surprisingly to Adelaide United. He was then demoted to No2 under the newly-arrived Zico, who did the league and Cup double before leaving to take charge of CSKA Moscow. He was replaced by Scolari, who had just been jilted by Chelsea, while Kasimov was appointed manager of Uzbekistan. Scolari lasted a season before he and Rivaldo left complaining about unpaid wages. Kasimov took over again, this time combining his role with that of manager of the national team.

The regime's involvement in the club dwindled amid clampdowns on the dealings of some of companies backing it, but they have remained a powerful side, albeit not of the standing to which they initially aspired. They have never made it to the Asian Champions League final despite reaching the knockout stages for the last six years, with their latest elimination coming at the hands of Thailand's Buriram United.

Not that the money spent on Uzbek football was wasted on hollow vanity projects. There was some investment in grassroots facilities and youth development, and the fruit of that may be seen in the senior team in the coming years, as the country's Under-16s are Asian champions and the Under-17s reached the last eight of the 2011 World Cup and will compete again in the next edition of that tournament in September. By then, the senior squad hope to have featured on the global stage too, with a team made up mainly from players from Bunyodkor and a few new introductions from their successor as domestic champions, FC Pakhtakor.

The team's stars, however, play abroad, with striker Aleksandr Geynrikh based in Kazakhstan, midfielder Server Djeparov in South Korea and, the biggest talent of all, Odil Ahmedov, marshalling midfield for the side whom Eto'o did agree to join, Russia's Anzhi Makhachkala.

Ahmedov, the man who finished ahead of Rivaldo in the 2009 poll, earned the move to Anzhi through his formidable performances at the 2011 Asian Cup, where Uzbekistan finished fourth. In Ahmedov's image, Uzbekistan are a well-organised and tough-tackling unit capable of an occasional flourish, and they were looking like genuine contenders for the Asian title until they unravelled in the second-half of their semi-final and wound up being beaten 6-0 by Australia.

Kasimov was not in charge for that expedition – he had been replaced by Vadim Abramov – but he got the job back again in 2011, when Abramov was sacked following a 1-0 home defeat to Iran in the opening match of the last round of 2014 qualifiers. That decision was characteristic of the ruthlessness of decision-makers in Uzbek football but also symptomatic of the huge hopes that had been spawned by an impressive previous round of qualification, when Uzbekistan conceded just one goal as they topped a group featuring Japan and North Korea.

In his latest incarnation as manager, Kasimov has overseen a return to that sort of form, avenging the opening defeat by triumphing 1-0 in Tehran and winning by the same margin in Qatar. They are top of their group in the fourth and possibly final round of qualifying.

Uzbekistan would claim top spot back by winning in Seoul, a result that, bearing in mind that South Korea's last game is against third-place Iran on 18 June, would secure a top-two finish for Uzbekistan and direct qualification for the World Cup. Provided no one files a protest, of course.