Moon Jae-in's policies toward North Korea seem increasingly based on wishful thinking. Is the Seoul-Washington alliance in jeopardy?

US President Donald Trump's trade policies may cause big problems for South Korea's President Moon Jae-in. Photo: Reuters/Jonathan Ernst

A number of recent events illustrate the independent path Seoul is taking with North Korea, and it is clear the United States and South Korea are not marching to the same beat – or even reading from the same sheet.

Despite the mounting preponderance of evidence that Pyongyang has no intention of surrendering its nuclear weapons and missiles of varying ranges, Seoul is removing the phrase “the North Korean regime and army are our enemy” from its upcoming Defense White Paper.

Cart before the horse

South Korean President Moon Jae-in wants to open a liaison office in the North Korean city of Kaesong, just over the DMZ. This is not really an issue of sanctions, as some worry, but one of timing. As long as negotiations over North Korea’s denuclearization are floundering, the US is against such an action. Even so, Seoul pooh-poohs the difference of opinion.

The Moon administration is also looking into joint ventures with the North, many of which are likely to run afoul of sanctions. Certain players within the South Korean private sector, too, are anxious to start work on projects involving the North. With the South Korean economy in the doldrums, lucrative business opportunities are seen as financial lifelines.

Even banks are gearing up to offer financial products focused on North Korea. Offerings range from trust funds with beneficiaries in the North to unification-based investments. The roadblocks posed by sanctions for these projects are seen as either circumventable or surmountable.

Both the North and the South want a peace treaty, something that the North could use as a tool to overturn sanctions and that the South could use to justify economic involvement with the North. Already, the optimism brought about by the Trump-Kim summit has weakened the sanctions regimen as China and Russia are openly flaunting their disregard for trade limitations.

That would indeed be money well-spent on projects to support a nascent market economy and would eventually benefit all citizens in the North, not just Pyongyang’s elites. But such projects are still premature. Little of this sits well with US President Trump, whose policy continues to be “maximum pressure.”

Wishful thinking, stalled economy

All of these intended actions are based upon wishful thinking. Consider for a moment all the promises hyped by Moon and his associates regarding Pyongyang’s willingness to denuclearize before the June summit between Trump and North Korean Chairman Kim Jong Un.

Ignoring for the moment that no one has yet to define the term denuclearize in a way that is mutually acceptable to the US and North Korea, a timetable for whatever denuclearization might come to mean has yet to be established. Seoul’s hoopla has turned out to be nothing more than the South viewing the North through rose-colored glasses.

Moon’s actions and intentions make coordination of effective action with the US regarding North Korea difficult. All of this suits Kim Jong Un as he recognizes the opportunity to drive a wedge between Seoul and Washington.

Clearly the two professed allies do not see North Korea in the same way. Moon’s primary goal is the peace and reconciliation on the peninsula. Trump’s is the denuclearization of North Korea.

That disconnect is now public. The result is that Pyongyang is emboldened to entice a left-leaning South Korean administration to distance itself from the hard-right US. Thus, absent a quick resumption of negotiations – fruitful negotiations – the situation on the Korean Peninsula is likely to get worse before it gets better – if it ever does.