Poverty and violent conflict : a micro-level perspective on the causes and duration of warfare

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Abstract

This paper discusses how endogenous mechanisms linking processes of violent conflict and
the economic well-being of individuals and households in combat areas provide valuable
micro foundations to the ongoing debate on the causes and duration of armed conflict.
Notably, the endogenous relationship between conflict processes and household economic
status leads to the emergence of symbiotic associations between armed groups and
households living in areas they control that affect substantially the probability of a conflict
starting and its effectiveness thereafter. Households in conflict areas draw on local armed
groups to protect their economic status when anticipating violence and during the conflict,
while armed groups make use of different levels of (either reluctant or voluntary)
participation, support and cooperation from local populations to advance their strategic
objectives at the onset and throughout the conflict. The level of household participation at the
start and during the conflict is a function of two interdependent variables, namely household
vulnerability to poverty and household vulnerability to violence. The poorer the household is
at the start of the conflict, the higher is the probability of the household participating and
supporting an armed group. The higher the risk of violence, the higher is the probability of the
household participating and supporting armed groups. The interaction between these two
variables varies with the conflict itself and is defined by the direct and indirect effects of
conflict-induced violence on the economic behaviour and decisions of households in combat
areas.
Keywords: household poverty; household welfare; causes of armed conflict; duration of
conflict; micro-foundations of conflict.