Lee the only certainty after bowling audit

Among the fast bowlers around the country, Brett Lee is the only red-hot certainty to play in Melbourne. Lee bowled with plenty of pace at the SCG and anyhow is the last man standing of the quartet that has proved such a handful these past few years. Not that he is a great bowler - his figures in recent campaigns suggest otherwise - but he is fit and fast and capable of bringing a match to life with an inspired burst.

Lee's aggression is needed because this ingredient has been missing from the Australian attack. Opponents have been piling on runs with an air of comfort. Stuart Carlisle's century for Zimbabwe in Sydney in October was the warning and India's big score in Adelaide the confirmation that the Australian attack lacks menace.

Clearly, Lee will play in the Boxing Day Test. The rest is guesswork. Up and down the land, opening bowlers have been hurling the ball down in an attempt to catch the attention of the selectors. Many names have been bandied about - none of them ridiculous.

Denied the services of their two outstanding pacemen, the selectors have been sifting through the replacements. Among those currently in the squad, Andrew Bichel took wickets in Adelaide but paid Harrod's prices for them. Moreover, he generally has seemed happiest working behind a strong pair of new-ball bowlers.

Bichel puts his back into his work and his runs might be useful if the selectors decide to omit a batsman in order to play an extra bowler. Hereafter, the Australians are likely to bowl more pace and less spin.

On the face of it, Brad Williams and Nathan Bracken are the leading candidates to take the third and fourth bowling positions. Judging by their treatment in recent matches, though, neither is regarded as indispensable. Williams was left out at the Gabba and hurt a shoulder in Adelaide, where his efforts were praised by his coach. A dropped catch prevented him taking a crucial wicket. Before considering him, the selectors will want to be certain that his shoulder can stand up to five days of wear and tear.

Bracken was fair in Brisbane and was unlucky to be dropped. He has bowled well against Tasmania but took few wickets. Reservations seem to be held about his vitality but it has been hard to detect any weaknesses from the boundary. His height, angle and ability to bowl around the wicket add to his attractions. He may not be the type to rip off bottle tops with his teeth but he has matured into a lively bowler and he is fit.

Matthew Nicholson's name has been mentioned. Last seen spraying it around in the nets in Harare, where he was attempting to recover from the yips, Nicholson has fought back impressively.

A tall young man educated at a private school in Sydney, Nicholson contracted the yips when he was declared fit to tour Zimbabwe before he had properly recovered from a torn groin muscle. Like any other youngster chosen to play for his country, he kept quiet about his injury. Confidence was lost and it has been a long haul back.

Nicholson has the height needed to hit the pitch hard and push the Indians on to the back foot. His dismissals of the Indian left-handers in Hobart confirmed the point. If he is not in the selectors' thoughts already, he soon will be.

Among the pacemen chosen to play in Hobart, Shaun Tait looked the next likeliest to take wickets. Like Fidel Edwards, the emerging West Indian, Tait bowls full, fast and straight from a slingy action. He has a hunger for wickets and no great affection for batsman and is not nearly as "civilised" as most contemporary fast bowlers. It is intended as a compliment.

Several other contenders spring to mind. Ashley Noffke has reappeared and scored a timely ton at the weekend. Mathew Inness and Damien Wright have been taking wickets. Michael Kasprowicz has troubled the Indians on their own patch and swings the ball more than the younger fellows.

If the selectors are having some difficulty putting these candidates in order, it'd hardly be surprising. Great cricketers pick themselves. The rest need to be in the right place at the right time. Selectors have many factors to take into account, not least the need to be consistent. But Australia has fallen behind and cannot afford to pussy-foot.

The question is simple. Which bowlers would India least like to face at the MCG on Boxing Day? The answer is not quite so straightforward. But this might be time to gamble. A couple of blokes have put their hands up in Hobart and deserve consideration.