Overthinking It

This Week in Catcher Framing, 9/20

2013 League Leaders
Welcome back. We’re going to start things off a little differently this time. These are the top five framers of 2013, according to Max Marchi’s model, through the end of August (it takes time to run, so it’s updated monthly). Negative numbers are runs saved, and numbers inside parentheses are called pitches.

Ryan Doumit caught about half as many pitches as anyone else in the bottom five, and he still ranks second-worst overall. Classic Doumit. As Sam Miller and I discussed on Wednesday’s episode of Effectively Wild, Doumit’s teams have a .378 winning percentage in games that he’s appeared in, which is the worst mark among active players with a minimum of 800 games played. Obviously, that’s not entirely on him—it’s not his fault that he was drafted by Pittsburgh, and even with a better catcher, the 2005-2011 Pirates still would’ve been bad. But Doumit hasn’t helped. All of his WARP go away if you factor in framing.

We also have full-season stats for Double-A and Triple-A, using Max’s Retrosheet-based estimated framing method. Here are the top five through the end of the minor-league regular season:

Leon was called up to Washington when rosters expanded, but he still hasn’t gotten into a game. Washington Times Nats beat writer Amanda Comak reported that “pitchers rave about the job he does behind the plate,” and for good reason. At the plate, it’s a different story: Leon is a career .218/.310/.303 hitter in 510 Double-A plate appearances. Vazquez is a prospect; in May, Zach Mortimernoted that he has a “plus defensive profile,” adding, “most scouts I talk to believe he has the ability to play every day.” And Murphy is another in a series of strong receivers for the Yankees, who are clearly targeting players who fit that profile.

Also of note: Austin Hedges, who played in only 20 Double-A games but saved 5.0 runs in that small sample. Hedges has a reputation as the best defensive catcher in the minors; you can watch video of his smooth receiving here, courtesy of Jason Cole. The most impressive small-sample minor-league performance belonged to Pirates backstop Ali Solis, who saved 11.1 runs in 29 games split between Double-A and Triple-A. Unfortunately, he hit .179/.231/.214.

Hester was over 10 runs worse as a receiver than anyone else in the upper minors. He also hit .237/.307/.391 as a 30-year-old in the PCL. Somehow, that performance earned him a spot on the Angels’ September active roster. Pinto was promoted to Minnesota this month after a big offensive year (.309/.400/.482) in the minors, and thus far he’s continued to hit. But if he’s as bad behind the plate as Max’s estimate suggests, then Twins fans still won’t get to see a solid receiver while Doumit recuperates from a concussion.

Calhoun is pretty compact, so this looked high for him, if not for C.B. Bucknor. It's especially important for the catcher to make subtle movements when the pitch is up in the umpire's eyes, and Molina does a good job of bringing the ball back down without drawing attention to his actions.

Lobaton moves a lot here, and he has to reach back to the center of the zone as he slides toward the corner. He still gets the strike, and Hamilton probably regrets making a rare decision not to swing.

Didn't look close to a strike, and evidently the umpire agreed. But Stewart is set up way inside, so when Kuroda misses his spot he has to stab at the ball to keep it from sailing past him. Ignore how it was received, and factor in the parallax effect, and this one probably caught he corner.

Doumit has been absent from behind the plate since late August because of his latest concussion, and Ron Gardenhiresaid that he "would probably keep his catching equipment locked away the rest of the year." We wish Doumit well and hope he makes a swift, complete recovery, but it would be best for him to return as a corner guy/DH. As far as the locked-up catching equipment goes, it's probably time to throw away the key.

They're very different--Max's is a complex mixed-level model that adjusts for count, pitch type, batter, umpire, and other factors. OZoneStrike/ZoneBall is basically counting, without any adjustments. I wrote about the correlation between the two here here, but Max's is the more advanced method.

One thing I think I'm seeing, but can't quite tell from the camera angles - on the good frames of low pitches, the catchers start with their glove relatively close to their body, then reach out and down to catch it. On the last Doumit play, he starts with his arm out, then levers it down to catch it. From the POV of the ump, the former would look more like reaching forward into the zone, while the latter looks more like dropping out of it. Might have to take my kid out later and stand behind him to watch what both ways look like from the ump POV...