The value of diversification illustrated in an exquisite quilt (January 5)

"No single asset class has been the market's top performer year after year on a consistent basis. Unfortunately, no amount of skill or experience has enabled anyone to forecast how various asset classes will stack up in any of those given years. And as a result, those who try to predict and time the markets usually get burned."

No single asset class has been the market's top performer year after year on a consistent basis. Unfortunately, no amount of skill or experience has enabled anyone to forecast how various asset classes will stack up in any of those given years. And as a result, those who try to predict and time the markets usually get burned.

Here are 2 completely different ways of thinking about the exact same chart (January 7)

"The latest ISM manufacturing purchasing manager index (PMI) fell to 48.2 in December from 48.6 in November. Any reading below 50 signals contraction in the industry. But is that a sign of contraction in the US economy? Two Wall Street pros looked at a chart of the ISM PMI overlaid with bars that highlight recessionary periods."

The latest ISM manufacturing purchasing manager index (PMI) fell to 48.2 in December from 48.6 in November. Any reading below 50 signals contraction in the industry. But is that a sign of contraction in the US economy? Two Wall Street pros looked at a chart of the ISM PMI overlaid with bars that highlight recessionary periods.

The stock market hasn't made sense in 14 of the last 20 quarters (January 11)

"Stock prices and any revisions to earnings expectations rarely move in the same direction in the short run. While that's a principle that plays out in the market in the long run, it's actually not unusually to see the exact opposite moves happens."

Stock prices and any revisions to earnings expectations rarely move in the same direction in the short run. While that's a principle that plays out in the market in the long run, it's actually not unusually to see the exact opposite moves happens.

There’s no need to freak out about how few stock market winners there were in 2015 (January 12)

"JP Morgan's Dubravko Lakos-Bujas reminds readers that while it's true there are just a handful of stocks doing most of the work to keep the S&P 500 afloat, nothing way outside historical norms has been going on."

JP Morgan's Dubravko Lakos-Bujas reminds readers that while it's true there are just a handful of stocks doing most of the work to keep the S&P 500 afloat, nothing way outside historical norms has been going on.

A key US economic indicator is on an ugly streak that has never occurred outside a recession (January 19)

"The current total of 10 (of a possible 12) month-over-month declines in Industrial Production has never been observed except in the context of a U.S. recession.Historically, as Dick Van Patten would say, eight is enough."

The current total of 10 (of a possible 12) month-over-month declines in Industrial Production has never been observed except in the context of a U.S. recession.Historically, as Dick Van Patten would say, eight is enough.

The weakest part of the US economy isn't exactly screaming recession (February 1)

"One of the reasons to believe the so-called manufacturing 'recession' is likely to be short-lived is that it has been limited to a handful of industries. In other words, it has not been a pervasive slowing."

One of the reasons to believe the so-called manufacturing 'recession' is likely to be short-lived is that it has been limited to a handful of industries. In other words, it has not been a pervasive slowing.

Evidence the stock market may be more like the real economy than you think (February 2)

"Citi calculates that more than 50% of index earnings come from services and that does not include profits coming from the financial subsidiaries of auto, truck, aircraft and equipment producers. An all-inclusive definition of services comprises near 60% of the bottom line versus misperceptions of something closer to half that."

Citi calculates that more than 50% of index earnings come from services and that does not include profits coming from the financial subsidiaries of auto, truck, aircraft and equipment producers. An all-inclusive definition of services comprises near 60% of the bottom line versus misperceptions of something closer to half that.

Here's how insanely volatile oil prices have been this year (February 10)

"There have been 24 days in 2016 during which oil prices have moved by more than 5% intra-day. Trading has only taken place on 26 days. In the few years before oil prices crashed last year, a move this big was a rare occurrence and in 2013 there was no day with a trading range this wide."

There have been 24 days in 2016 during which oil prices have moved by more than 5% intra-day. Trading has only taken place on 26 days. In the few years before oil prices crashed last year, a move this big was a rare occurrence and in 2013 there was no day with a trading range this wide.

Investors are incredibly pessimistic about the stock market (February 11)

"In this week's survey, negative sentiment spiked 14 percentage points from 34.7% up to 48.7%. Back in late January we saw a similarly high reading, but before that the last time bearish sentiment was higher was in April 2013."

In this week's survey, negative sentiment spiked 14 percentage points from 34.7% up to 48.7%. Back in late January we saw a similarly high reading, but before that the last time bearish sentiment was higher was in April 2013.

SLØK: The US rates market appears 'significantly mispriced' right now (February 18)

"Put differently, markets are currently pricing a deep recession, but that is simply not what the data is showing. Jobless claims today, industrial production and capacity utilization yesterday, and consumer spending last Friday suggest that things are actually getting better. In other words, rates markets seem significantly mispriced at the moment."

Put differently, markets are currently pricing a deep recession, but that is simply not what the data is showing. Jobless claims today, industrial production and capacity utilization yesterday, and consumer spending last Friday suggest that things are actually getting better. In other words, rates markets seem significantly mispriced at the moment.

The decline of US labor unions over the last 30 years (February 23)

"From 2010 to 2015, the number of major work stoppages ranged from 11 to 19. In 2009, there were 5 major work stoppages recorded, the lowest of any year since the series began in 1947. In general, the number of major work stoppages has declined over time."

From 2010 to 2015, the number of major work stoppages ranged from 11 to 19. In 2009, there were 5 major work stoppages recorded, the lowest of any year since the series began in 1947. In general, the number of major work stoppages has declined over time.

Earnings expectations are setting up the stock market for a major surprise (February 26)

"Though regardless of direction, the volatility for earnings estimates — which are based off either past or expected results — is at its widest in six years, setting up for continued volatility in the market."

Though regardless of direction, the volatility for earnings estimates — which are based off either past or expected results — is at its widest in six years, setting up for continued volatility in the market.

The US economy is getting better, but US workers are getting worse (February 29)

"Marginal workers who were forced into unemployment or out of the labor market entirely may have seen their skills atrophy. Now that they're coming back to the labor force as the economy improves, their time out of employment lowers the average number of years worked among all workers."

Marginal workers who were forced into unemployment or out of the labor market entirely may have seen their skills atrophy. Now that they're coming back to the labor force as the economy improves, their time out of employment lowers the average number of years worked among all workers.

The US housing market has a major supply problem (March 7)

"Because of how much damage occurred in the housing sector and how slow and long the recovery took, other industries absorbed housing sector resources. And now we're nearing overall US economic resource utilization levels that typically makes the Fed uncomfortable."

Because of how much damage occurred in the housing sector and how slow and long the recovery took, other industries absorbed housing sector resources. And now we're nearing overall US economic resource utilization levels that typically makes the Fed uncomfortable.

Yep, US companies tried to hide a ton of bad news from investors last year (March 11)

"Looking at the 30 companies in the Dow Jones Industrial Average, Butters found that 20 companies reported non-GAAP earnings with these results, on average, coming in 30.7% higher than their GAAP earnings in 2015. In the 2014, this spread was 11.8%. So said another way, US companies tried to get investors to ignore a whole bunch of bad news last year."

Looking at the 30 companies in the Dow Jones Industrial Average, Butters found that 20 companies reported non-GAAP earnings with these results, on average, coming in 30.7% higher than their GAAP earnings in 2015. In the 2014, this spread was 11.8%. So said another way, US companies tried to get investors to ignore a whole bunch of bad news last year.

Corporate America's profit outlook keeps getting worse (March 15)

"The following chart, which comes to us from the team over at Societe Generale, shows the momentum of earnings as measured by the 3-month rolling percentage revision of 12-month forward earnings forecasts. Basically, this is a smoothed view of how much or how little companies are cutting expectations."

The following chart, which comes to us from the team over at Societe Generale, shows the momentum of earnings as measured by the 3-month rolling percentage revision of 12-month forward earnings forecasts. Basically, this is a smoothed view of how much or how little companies are cutting expectations.

Activist investors went after companies at a record pace in 2015 — and won (March 16)

"In 2015, there were 70 activist campaigns in which a dissident objective was to return cash via dividends and/or buybacks. This was a 37% increase from the number in 2014 (51 campaigns), and represented the highest total since FactSet began tracking the data in 2005."

In 2015, there were 70 activist campaigns in which a dissident objective was to return cash via dividends and/or buybacks. This was a 37% increase from the number in 2014 (51 campaigns), and represented the highest total since FactSet began tracking the data in 2005.

The oil crash is almost over (March 21)

"On the demand side, world demand growth, supported by cheaper prices, should erode the majority of the surplus and help bring the market into balance by the end of the year. Looking at the market fundamentals in place, I believe we have reached a new point in the global energy story: The endgame in the decline of the price of oil."

On the demand side, world demand growth, supported by cheaper prices, should erode the majority of the surplus and help bring the market into balance by the end of the year. Looking at the market fundamentals in place, I believe we have reached a new point in the global energy story: The endgame in the decline of the price of oil.

America isn't building enough homes for first-time buyers (March 22)

"While the construction of homes of all sizes cratered after the housing bust, as the market has come back to life most of the growth in new homes has come from larger homes, doing little to alleviate the squeeze being put on the next generation of would-be homeowners."

While the construction of homes of all sizes cratered after the housing bust, as the market has come back to life most of the growth in new homes has come from larger homes, doing little to alleviate the squeeze being put on the next generation of would-be homeowners.

BP: The US will be energy independent in 5 years (March 24)

"In its 2016 energy outlook, the oil giant BP predicted that the US would be "energy self-sufficient" by 2021 and oil self-sufficient by 2030. Oil is used for products beyond just power, such as plastics, which is why oil independence would come shortly after energy independence."

In its 2016 energy outlook, the oil giant BP predicted that the US would be energy self-sufficient by 2021 and oil self-sufficient by 2030. Oil is used for products beyond just power, such as plastics, which is why oil independence would come shortly after energy independence.

This might be the only time it's cheaper to use Uber instead of owning your own car (March 28)

"For about 14% of households in high density urban core areas (or 4.2% of total households in the broader metro areas) it might be cheaper to use the basic versions of Uber or Lyft instead of owning a car."

For about 14% of households in high density urban core areas (or 4.2% of total households in the broader metro areas) it might be cheaper to use the basic versions of Uber or Lyft instead of owning a car.

America's confidence in the labor market is at an 8-year high (March 29)

"Consumers’ assessment of current conditions posted a moderate decline, while expectations regarding the short-term turned more favorable as last month’s turmoil in the financial markets appears to have abated."

Consumers’ assessment of current conditions posted a moderate decline, while expectations regarding the short-term turned more favorable as last month’s turmoil in the financial markets appears to have abated.

One of the biggest problems caused by the Great Recession might be turning around (April 19)

"This cohort [of discouraged workers] has been declining as we get farther from the crisis, suggesting these individuals either found employment or became increasingly detached. If we include other measures of labor market slack, such as workers who are employed but desire full-time work (involuntarily part-time workers), we see a similar trend. This suggests that there is a shrinking share of workers who are on the fringe of the labor force."

This cohort [of discouraged workers] has been declining as we get farther from the crisis, suggesting these individuals either found employment or became increasingly detached. If we include other measures of labor market slack, such as workers who are employed but desire full-time work (involuntarily part-time workers), we see a similar trend. This suggests that there is a shrinking share of workers who are on the fringe of the labor force.

Earnings forecasts always get cut, but 2016 has been particularly terrible (April 21)

"Expectations for 2016's earnings are already down about 16% from when estimates were first made and we still have over half the year left. If the downward trend holds, earnings this year could be truly terrible."

Expectations for 2016's earnings are already down about 16% from when estimates were first made and we still have over half the year left. If the downward trend holds, earnings this year could be truly terrible.

The idea that millennials have more debt is an 'urban myth' (April 22)

"It is an urban myth that the young generation today is more indebted, it is the older generations that have higher debt levels. The reason is that since 2009 it has been difficult for Millennials to get a loan. As a result, 25 to 35 year olds today have less debt than in 2003."

It is an urban myth that the young generation today is more indebted, it is the older generations that have higher debt levels. The reason is that since 2009 it has been difficult for Millennials to get a loan. As a result, 25 to 35 year olds today have less debt than in 2003.

There are some 'troubling issues' for first-time homebuyers (April 26)

"Entry-level and mid-market buyers — typically the housing market's bread and butter — are likely to face stiff competition, rapidly rising prices and very limited inventory. The patience of many buyers will be tested in coming months."

Entry-level and mid-market buyers — typically the housing market's bread and butter — are likely to face stiff competition, rapidly rising prices and very limited inventory. The patience of many buyers will be tested in coming months.

"In the next five years the proportion of Americans who identify as Hispanic or Latino will increase by a "whopping" 1.6 percentage points and that of people over 65 will increase by 0.9 of a percentage point."

In the next five years the proportion of Americans who identify as Hispanic or Latino will increase by a whopping 1.6 percentage points and that of people over 65 will increase by 0.9 of a percentage point.

There's one big problem with China's plan to transform its economy (May 4)

"One of China's long-term economic plans is to get its workers out of rural areas and into cities. This is part of China's larger goal of transforming the country's economy into one based on services and consumer spending. Ultimately, the government wants to get about 70% of its population into cities. But it seems as if China may actually be on the edge of a reverse migration, as many migrants are returning back home."

One of China's long-term economic plans is to get its workers out of rural areas and into cities. This is part of China's larger goal of transforming the country's economy into one based on services and consumer spending. Ultimately, the government wants to get about 70% of its population into cities. But it seems as if China may actually be on the edge of a reverse migration, as many migrants are returning back home.

There's something wrong with the US labor market (May 10)

"While the abundance of jobs is often interpreted as a sign of strength in the market, there's a persistent and growing gap between the number of jobs available and the number of hires being made that points to a nagging skills gap in the labor market that is unresolved."

While the abundance of jobs is often interpreted as a sign of strength in the market, there's a persistent and growing gap between the number of jobs available and the number of hires being made that points to a nagging skills gap in the labor market that is unresolved.

BAML clients have sold US stocks for 15 weeks, the longest stretch on record (May 11)

"According to Jill Cary Hall and Savita Subramanian, equity strategists at Bank of America-Merrill Lynch (BAML), clients have now been net sellers of US stocks for 15 consecutive weeks, the longest stretch of continuous outflows since the bank first began tabulating the data in 2008. That’s a remarkable statistic given some of the volatility witnessed over the past eight years."

According to Jill Cary Hall and Savita Subramanian, equity strategists at Bank of America-Merrill Lynch (BAML), clients have now been net sellers of US stocks for 15 consecutive weeks, the longest stretch of continuous outflows since the bank first began tabulating the data in 2008. That’s a remarkable statistic given some of the volatility witnessed over the past eight years.

This chart shows the age when most people feel the least happy (May 16)

"People report the lowest levels of well-being in their early 50s. This is the age at which most people are starting to seriously think about their retirement plans, might be figuring how to pay for their kid's college tuition, and may even be thinking about taking care of their aging parents."

People report the lowest levels of well-being in their early 50s. This is the age at which most people are starting to seriously think about their retirement plans, might be figuring how to pay for their kid's college tuition, and may even be thinking about taking care of their aging parents.

There's one key driver of inflation that's not showing any signs of slowing down soon (May 18)

"Rising rents would not be welcome news for renters, particularly if wages continue to rise slower than inflation. But they would be for the Federal Reserve, which is counting on more inflation to justify higher interest rates."

Rising rents would not be welcome news for renters, particularly if wages continue to rise slower than inflation. But they would be for the Federal Reserve, which is counting on more inflation to justify higher interest rates.

Here's exactly how much America's biggest companies bent the truth about earnings this year (May 20)

"In the first quarter of 2016, non-GAAP earnings were 28.9% higher than GAAP earnings, on average, among companies that reported both, according to FactSet Research. In the same quarter last year non-GAAP earnings were 19.7% higher than GAAP earnings, on average."

In the first quarter of 2016, non-GAAP earnings were 28.9% higher than GAAP earnings, on average, among companies that reported both, according to FactSet Research. In the same quarter last year non-GAAP earnings were 19.7% higher than GAAP earnings, on average.

The collapse of oil could infect the rest of the economy (May 24)

"Default cycles of the past have never been about a single sector, or small group of sectors. Yes, cycles were always driven by concentrated distress but they always found their way to affect other areas of the market."

Default cycles of the past have never been about a single sector, or small group of sectors. Yes, cycles were always driven by concentrated distress but they always found their way to affect other areas of the market.

Here's who actually owns the stock market (May 25)

"Of the $22.8 trillion in stock outstanding (not including US ownership of foreign stock and stock owned by "pass-through entities" such as exchange-traded funds), retirement accounts owned roughly 37%, the most of any type of holder."

Of the $22.8 trillion in stock outstanding (not including US ownership of foreign stock and stock owned by pass-through entities such as exchange-traded funds), retirement accounts owned roughly 37%, the most of any type of holder.

"According to Deutsche Bank economist Torsten Sløk, since the implementation of negative interest rates in Japan, the sale of safes has spiked. In a note to clients, Sløk highlighted the massive jump in safe sales since the implementation of negative interest-rate policies. Essentially, these policies force savers to pay the bank in order to keep money in a savings account. Thus, it is cheaper to pull money from the bank and store it in a safe."

According to Deutsche Bank economist Torsten Sløk, since the implementation of negative interest rates in Japan, the sale of safes has spiked. In a note to clients, Sløk highlighted the massive jump in safe sales since the implementation of negative interest-rate policies. Essentially, these policies force savers to pay the bank in order to keep money in a savings account. Thus, it is cheaper to pull money from the bank and store it in a safe.

The Verizon strike was a huge contributor to the miserable jobs report (June 3)

"Verizon employees were on strike in May during the survey period for the report, protesting low wages. Information services employment, which Verizon workers would fall under, dropped by 34,000 jobs on net. This was a dramatic drop for a sector that hadn't lost jobs on net since November 2015."

Verizon employees were on strike in May during the survey period for the report, protesting low wages. Information services employment, which Verizon workers would fall under, dropped by 34,000 jobs on net. This was a dramatic drop for a sector that hadn't lost jobs on net since November 2015.

This chart shows the generational shift that's taking place in media (June 6)

"In June 1990, there were nearly 458,000 people employed in the newspaper publishing industry; by March 2016, that figure had fallen to about 183,000, a decline of almost 60 percent. Over the same period, employment in Internet publishing and broadcasting rose from about 30,000 to nearly 198,000."

In June 1990, there were nearly 458,000 people employed in the newspaper publishing industry; by March 2016, that figure had fallen to about 183,000, a decline of almost 60 percent. Over the same period, employment in Internet publishing and broadcasting rose from about 30,000 to nearly 198,000.

There's a $6.6 trillion reason the US might be nearing a recession (June 7)

The ratio of non-financial corporate debt to nominal GDP is at its highest level since Q2 2009, when the economy was still in recession and nominal output was substantially depressed. This is one reason why the Fed needs to be very cautious with respect to the pace of policy normalization."

The ratio of non-financial corporate debt to nominal GDP is at its highest level since Q2 2009, when the economy was still in recession and nominal output was substantially depressed. This is one reason why the Fed needs to be very cautious with respect to the pace of policy normalization.

Here's every stock market crash in the past 60 years (June 8)

"Crashes of at least 20% are incredibly painful because of their rapid pace and long recovery times, but they're also more frequent than you may expect. Since 1950, there have been 57 such crashes in four of the world's major indexes (the US' S&P 500, the UK's FTSE All Share, Germany's DAX, and Japan's TOPIX)."

Crashes of at least 20% are incredibly painful because of their rapid pace and long recovery times, but they're also more frequent than you may expect. Since 1950, there have been 57 such crashes in four of the world's major indexes (the US' S&P 500, the UK's FTSE All Share, Germany's DAX, and Japan's TOPIX).

It's never taken longer for US businesses to fill a job opening (June 9)

"US businesses took an average of 29.3 working days to fill a job opening in April, according to DHI Group'sDHI-DFH Mean Vacancy Duration measure. That's an all-time high, and a solid uptick from March's revised 27.7 days."

US businesses took an average of 29.3 working days to fill a job opening in April, according to DHI Group'sDHI-DFH Mean Vacancy Duration measure. That's an all-time high, and a solid uptick from March's revised 27.7 days.

This map shows how oil flows out of American oil's 'sleeping giant' (June 9)

"Texas’ Permian Basin has long been considered to be American oil's "sleeping giant." And, notably, in the past week, operators in the region added five rigs to their active count, which OilPrice.com's Irina Slav suggested demonstrated "that the basin is perhaps the most viable across the shale patch, with its low production costs and abundant reserves.""

Texas’ Permian Basin has long been considered to be American oil's sleeping giant. And, notably, in the past week, operators in the region added five rigs to their active count, which OilPrice.com's Irina Slav suggested demonstrated that the basin is perhaps the most viable across the shale patch, with its low production costs and abundant reserves.

Investors haven't hoarded cash like this in 15 years (June 14)

"According to Bank of America Merrill Lynch's latest fund manager survey, investors surveyed by the firm now have 5.7% of their net holdings in cash, the highest percentage since November 2001. Recall that in November 2001 the US was mired in recession while dealing with the fallout of both the tech-bubble bursting and the September 11 terrorist attacks."

According to Bank of America Merrill Lynch's latest fund manager survey, investors surveyed by the firm now have 5.7% of their net holdings in cash, the highest percentage since November 2001. Recall that in November 2001 the US was mired in recession while dealing with the fallout of both the tech-bubble bursting and the September 11 terrorist attacks.

One Fed official thinks the Fed should raise rates one more time in 2016, hold rates steady until 2018, and then ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ (June 15)

"With markets expecting no more rate hikes in 2016, the dots showed that every Fed official expects at least one more 0.25% rate hike this year. Additionally, one Fed official then projected it would not be appropriate for the Fed to raise interest rates in 2017 or 2018. And what's more, one official declined to give a projection for where interest rates are likely to be over the longer run."

With markets expecting no more rate hikes in 2016, the dots showed that every Fed official expects at least one more 0.25% rate hike this year. Additionally, one Fed official then projected it would not be appropriate for the Fed to raise interest rates in 2017 or 2018. And what's more, one official declined to give a projection for where interest rates are likely to be over the longer run.

More older Americans are working than at any time since the turn of the century (June 20)

"About 9 million people, or 18.8%, of Americans age 65 and up report being full- or part-time employees, according to a new report by the Pew Research Center. By comparison, in 2000, only 12.8% of those 65 and up were working — about 4 million people."

About 9 million people, or 18.8%, of Americans age 65 and up report being full- or part-time employees, according to a new report by the Pew Research Center. By comparison, in 2000, only 12.8% of those 65 and up were working — about 4 million people.

Young people haven't loved the economy this much since the tech boom (June 28)

"The economic confidence of people under the age of 35 is at its highest level since October 2000 and is approaching a historic record. At the same time, confidence for people over the age of 54 has slid in the past year, leading to a record divergence between the two cohorts."

The economic confidence of people under the age of 35 is at its highest level since October 2000 and is approaching a historic record. At the same time, confidence for people over the age of 54 has slid in the past year, leading to a record divergence between the two cohorts.

Americans' 'fear' of immigration is at its 2nd-highest level ever (June 29)

"The Migration Fear Index as measured by Economic Policy Uncertainty has spiked over the past year. The index is constructed by taking terms related to immigration such as "immigrant," "border control," and "open borders" and seeing how many news articles include one of those terms along with a fear-related term such as "anxiety," "crime," and "worry.""

The Migration Fear Index as measured by Economic Policy Uncertainty has spiked over the past year. The index is constructed by taking terms related to immigration such as immigrant, border control, and open borders and seeing how many news articles include one of those terms along with a fear-related term such as anxiety, crime, and worry.

A strange phenomenon is making the 'new housing crisis' even worse (June 30)

Don't be fooled by the rally — gold is still stuck in a 'bear super-cycle' (July 1)

"History says that short-term rallies are not likely to last inside a commodity bear super-cycle. And, in our opinion, gold is comfortably stuck inside a commodity bear super-cycle. As for an ideal entry point, history suggests that gold could eventually retest its lows this cycle, around $1,050 per ounce."

History says that short-term rallies are not likely to last inside a commodity bear super-cycle. And, in our opinion, gold is comfortably stuck inside a commodity bear super-cycle. As for an ideal entry point, history suggests that gold could eventually retest its lows this cycle, around $1,050 per ounce.

The government needs to spend a lot of money on something even less sexy than highways (July 5)

"Given the recent water crisis in Flint, Michigan, perhaps it should not be too surprising to see that public construction spending on our water supply is running just 0.07% of GDP, lower than at any time in the last decade."

Given the recent water crisis in Flint, Michigan, perhaps it should not be too surprising to see that public construction spending on our water supply is running just 0.07% of GDP, lower than at any time in the last decade.

"The Brexit vote has damaged the outlook for the global economy and EPS. This is clearly unhelpful for global equities. It also drove global bond yields down to unprecedented levels, which has increased the relative income attractions of equities. These two opposing forces are likely to keep share prices trapped in the current trading range."

The Brexit vote has damaged the outlook for the global economy and EPS. This is clearly unhelpful for global equities. It also drove global bond yields down to unprecedented levels, which has increased the relative income attractions of equities. These two opposing forces are likely to keep share prices trapped in the current trading range.

Wage growth is at its highest rate since the Great Recession (July 8)

"Wage growth since the Great Recession has remained fairly low, hovering around just 2%. This is most likely not high enough to support the Fed's stated inflation target of 2% year-over-year. Over the past few months, wages have grown at a somewhat faster rate than this, reaching a post-crisis high of 2.5% in December, January, April, and May."

Wage growth since the Great Recession has remained fairly low, hovering around just 2%. This is most likely not high enough to support the Fed's stated inflation target of 2% year-over-year. Over the past few months, wages have grown at a somewhat faster rate than this, reaching a post-crisis high of 2.5% in December, January, April, and May.

Dutch bonds just did something that we haven't seen in 499 years (July 11)

"The Dutch bond yields are the lowest the country has ever seen. Amazingly, there's nearly half a millennium of records to compare that against, as record keeping began in 1517. As a historical reference point, that's the same year that Marin Luther published his 95 Theses."

The Dutch bond yields are the lowest the country has ever seen. Amazingly, there's nearly half a millennium of records to compare that against, as record keeping began in 1517. As a historical reference point, that's the same year that Marin Luther published his 95 Theses.

Americans' appetite for stuff is slowing down (July 12)

"Using the aggregated data of those with Bank of America debit cards and credit cards, US economist Michelle Meyer identified a growing trend in customers' spending habits: Instead of purchasing goods, more and more Americans are putting their incomes toward experiences."

Using the aggregated data of those with Bank of America debit cards and credit cards, US economist Michelle Meyer identified a growing trend in customers' spending habits: Instead of purchasing goods, more and more Americans are putting their incomes toward experiences.

A top US bank regulator is worried about a real-estate bubble — even if he won't say it (July 13)

"CRE portfolios have seen rapid growth, particularly among small banks. At the end of 2015, 406 banks had CRE portfolios that had grown more than 50 percent in the prior three years. Of note, more than 180 of these banks more than doubled their CRE portfolios during the past three years. At the same time we are seeing this high growth, our exams found looser underwriting standards with less-restrictive covenants, extended maturities, longer interest-only periods, limited guarantor requirements, and deficient-stress testing practices."

CRE portfolios have seen rapid growth, particularly among small banks. At the end of 2015, 406 banks had CRE portfolios that had grown more than 50 percent in the prior three years. Of note, more than 180 of these banks more than doubled their CRE portfolios during the past three years. At the same time we are seeing this high growth, our exams found looser underwriting standards with less-restrictive covenants, extended maturities, longer interest-only periods, limited guarantor requirements, and deficient-stress testing practices.

Companies just set another terrible milestone (July 14)

"100 defaults is the second highest since record keeping began in 2004, trailing only 2009, the middle of the financial crisis. According to Global Market Intelligence, 67 of the defaults were US companies. At this point in 2015, there were only 62 defaults worldwide."

100 defaults is the second highest since record keeping began in 2004, trailing only 2009, the middle of the financial crisis. According to Global Market Intelligence, 67 of the defaults were US companies. At this point in 2015, there were only 62 defaults worldwide.

The Dow just closed up for the 9th day in a row — here's what happens next (July 20)

"The Dow hit the ninth up day in a row — only the seventh time this has happened since 1980. In each of the other six instances, albeit on a small sample size, the index has been up the following six months with an average gain of 10.41%."

The Dow hit the ninth up day in a row — only the seventh time this has happened since 1980. In each of the other six instances, albeit on a small sample size, the index has been up the following six months with an average gain of 10.41%.

American manufacturing is seeing a 'revival' (July 22)

"Markit Economics' flash purchasing managers' index for July — a preliminary reading — rose to 52.9, its highest level since November. Output growth jumped to the best level in eight months, and, more notably, manufacturing payrolls had the biggest gain in a year."

Markit Economics' flash purchasing managers' index for July — a preliminary reading — rose to 52.9, its highest level since November. Output growth jumped to the best level in eight months, and, more notably, manufacturing payrolls had the biggest gain in a year.