As political campaigns heat up ahead of the upcoming general elections, Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz’s (PML-N) star seems to be on the rise. According to a survey conducted by the International Republican Institute (IRI), the main opposition party’s popularity has increased both on the national and provincial level.

The recently released survey was conducted in November last year on a sample of 4,997 people. The sample was proportioned according to country’s demographics, in terms of age, gender, income, literacy and linguistic background. Participants were interviewed face-to-face.

Among the questions put forth by the interviews, participants were asked which party they would vote for if elections for the National Assembly (NA) were held a week following the interview. Similar questions were posed for each of the country’s provincial assemblies. The data gained was then compared to an earlier survey conducted between July and August last year to identify popularity trends.

According to the report, 32% of the respondents said they would vote for PML-N in the NA elections, compared to 28% in July-August 2012. In contrast, the ruling Pakistan Peoples Party’s (PPP) popularity remained stable at 14%. Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI), which appeared the most popular party at the national level following PML-N, saw a decrease in support from 24% in July-August 2012 to 18% in November 2012.

Similarly, PML-N remained the most popular party in Punjab according to the survey with 49% support – a 6% increase compared to the previous survey. In comparison, PTI, which remains the second most popular party in the province with 19% support, registered an 8% decrease in popularity.

While the IRI report revealed PML-N to be the next-to-least popular party in Sindh, it showed the main opposition party’s support in the province rose to 8% in November 2012 from 6% in July-August 2012. Although the ruling PPP still remained the most popular party in the province with 32% support, its popularity declined by 7% from 39% in July-August 2012. Muttahida Qaumi Movement (MQM), meanwhile, registered itself as the second most popular party in Sindh with 16% support, a 5% increase from its standing in previous survey.

PML-N’s popularity increased by 3% in Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa (K-P) to an overall 12%. PTI, however, remained the most popular party in the province with 32% support – a 2% increase from its support in July-August 2012.

In Balochistan, PML-N’s popularity increased by 5% to an overall 13%. Meanwhile, PTI lost its spot as the most popular party in the restive province to PPP due to 9% decrease in popularity. Concurrently, the ruling party registered a staggering 13% increase in popularity in Balochistan.

New province in southern Punjab

The IRI report revealed 41% of the respondents ‘strongly opposed’ to the creation of a new province in southern Punjab. In comparison, 21% of the respondents ‘strongly supported’ the creation of the province while 14% ‘somewhat supported’ the move.

Meanwhile, a majority of the respondents identified inflation as the most pressing issue facing Pakistan. According to the report, 32% of the survey participants picked inflation in response to the question. In contrast, 20% selected unemployment, 13% selected electricity and water, 10% selected terrorism, 7% selected corruption and only 5% selected poverty as the most pressing issue faced by the country.

Asked to rate the country’s institutions favourably, 40% of the respondents expressed a positive response to the NA. Around 37% rated the opposition favourably while 26% rated the incumbent government favourably.

In response to a question regarding their likelihood of voting in the upcoming elections, 75% of the respondents said they would definitely participate in the polls.

If PML N comes to power, I wont be really sad, they have ok governance record compared to other political parties. As long as that destructive PPP don’t come again, I am fine. I will still vote for PTI though

@Talat Hussain, PTI must ponder reasons of their popularity decline. It is the same nation in which PTI was popular before. Infact, to me, PML-N has taken stable stand on a few crucial issues such as TuQ long march, like yesterday, IK is still showing hesitant mindset towards making decisions.

People of Punjab are not crazy to vote PML-N. In FIVE years both PPP and PML-N have failed over and over again. Except tons of money in their accounts and new implanted hair on their heads, they have given nothing to the nation.

PPP’s popularity is failing in its bastion Sindh due to poor governance, notorious SPLG Bill, corruption, nepotism and worst law& order in Sindh. Karachi is at mercy of militant wings, dacoits are roaming in rural Sindh. They should revisit their policies and improve their performance otherwise sooner or later, their boat will sink. Secondly congrats to PMLN for gaining grounds in Sindh. Sindhi Nationalists, PMLF, and PMLN are emerging as new powerful factors in upcoming elections in Sindh.

Only 36% of total population resides in urban areas. That means 64% will definitely vote for their fuedal lords and tribal lords. We can discount those 64% right from the start. Of the remaining 36%, not all are going to against past and present governments. So, I guess the results of survey are quite realistic.

Punjab government has good governance as compared to other provinces. That is why PML(N) is gaining much popularity. At the same time, Nawaz Sharif is palying his cards very wisely in other provinces too. Moreover, Nawaz Sharif did many good deeds during his 2 tenures in 90’s. All my prayers for Mian Nawaz Sharif. Allah give him health and success.

@Sane Voice:
In the next general election no any political party shall get enough seats to form the government itself and the next federal government shall be coalition/combination of the different political parties and as far as provincial governments are concerned then as usual PPP shall be in Sindh,PML-N in Punjab as now is and in KPK and Balochistan PML-N and PPP shall not have enough seats and in KPK and Balochistan PPP and PML-N shall be the coalition partners…..

survey’s never work in Pakistan, election day will be the deciding factor. In urban area’s PTI is more popular than any other party whereas in rural areas it will be close to impossible for PTI to get any seats as majority is not educated, people vote on the basis of cast, sell their vote for mere few bucks, politicial parties use their might to force poor vote for them or use it for rigging & majority lacks the wisdom behind voting in rural areas.

There is a Confidence Interval in statistics that increases with the increased sample size and is provided with every inference. I wonder why their sample size is ridiculously small. Useless.
A statistical report without the Confidence Intervals is useless.

@Zoha Ali:
Those youth who got laptops? well most of them are voting for IK lol rest of the youth belongs to family members who are in PMLN or affiliated with it :) otherwise i see majority of the youth is inclined towards Imran.

@Sherish who thinks PML-N voters lack common sense: Please come out of this self righteous behavior and show respect for others opinion. God’s world is diverse with diversified opinions. I am NOT a voter of PML-N but they have some achievements such as judiciary restoration, executing nuclear skills and highways. No one here lacks common sense, its just one’s perception. Forget the approach “Either you are with me or you are nothing” Cheers!

65% of the total corruption happens in Punjab…majority of non tax paying parliamentarians are from PMLN…what kind of good governance is this? its sad to see people even thinking of voting for such people!

I think just before the elections the PTI will emerge … coz at the moment not much political activity and PMLN n PPP exhausted all government funds for election campaign but still they are not able to gain much Popularity . Once the caretaker setup is established PTI will rise above .

These surveys are meaningless and manipulated because they are conducted from a sample of almost 5000 respondents and 5000 respondents don’t necessarily reflect the views of 180 million people or 81 million registered voters for that matter. 5000 respondents may not even reflect the view of one district as the average district size of Pakistan is over 1 million in terms of Population and there are over 100,000 registered voters averagely in each district.

@Sehrish so you think Imran Khan with all the old foes, likes of hashmis,kasuris, tareens, lagharis and qureshies will actually deliver? he was so active about criticizing dengue but why he is quiet at khasra outbreak in Sindh?

How are we measuring this growth and decline ? Is this the same sample of people who were interviewed back in July survey….if its not the same sample then survey results cannot be trusted at all becoz depending variables(sample) have been changed…. i will vote for PTI as i think i cannot be fooled by last year drama of pml(n) … can only request people to consider performance of 5 years while voting not just last one and a half year

@Neo: Bro, what is good governance in Punjab? Do you go to Police station and they don’t ask for money.. Govt. employees are behaving like Mobilink customer service, Public transport in small cities is improved and takes care of Pedestrians, Punjab is free of thugs and criminals, Schools in towns and small cities are having good infra structure, Hospitals are not doing conscription at all, You got to Burewala/Patukee hospital and you don’t need to be queue of 200 people, Punjab govt has really done good to participate to improve GAS and electricity,… There is local system in every village looking after disabled, elderly people and poor/slums women….

Come on… The answer is NO NO NO… Nothing has happened… What governance are you talking about… May be you were talking about Lahore not Punjab.

This survey is valid until caretaker govt. After that you will see it will be other way round. No one can stop IK transforming this country into living place of poor people with Insaaf and development in every city and village….

Born Political: “PML(N) has taken a strong stance on few critical issues like TUQ”. Vow, his long march was unconstitutional and a campaign to derail democracy, please help me understand how Mr. Nawaz Sharif’s dharna is constitutional then? Few days back they were ridiculing IK on his observations against Election Commission, and now they themselves are voicing concerns over that. Shandaar! When IK said remove Zardari before elections, Hazrat Nawaz Sharif cited it senseless demand, now how come Chaudhary Nisar is asking for removal of provincial governors?What sense does this make now? And oh yes, Mr. Nawaz Sharif has only just realized that Karachi is bleeding and he would bring its lights back.Somebody must have forgotten to tell me that Karachi has been very peaceful during last four years. Care to share who is responsible for all this chaos? Who stopped operation cleanup against MQM back in 93?

I think if PML – N wins the next election then they MUST change the way of governance which they used in past (2 times tested and failed). PTI may not win this time but for sure next time i.e. after another 5 years. The most important thing is that PPP must not win this time, even in sindh because PPP promoted corruption and nothing else. PPP means Pee on Peoples Party. PTI will surely win considerably but in cities only. Interior punjab, a ground of feudal politics, will be in favour of PML-N mainly. Interior sindh will be a bit divided this time some in facor of PML-F and some to nationalist and PPP. A lot will also depend on the probable political alliance of PTI,JI and other parties, if that happens, could make the difference. ANP, MQM, PML-Q were only busy in getting price of their support to PPP government throughout the last 5 years. I honesty doubt the capabilities of political leadership of Pakistan who have always failed to deliver. And the fool/poor people of Pakistan who have always voted to PPP and PML. Pakistanis don’t think at all that the leadership of these parties is made up of feudals, industrialists and corrupts. The fate of Pakistanis is again going in the hands of those who have never given any good to the people but deprived them of their peace, econmic stability and basics of life. Shame on those who support the political leaders having feudal, indutrialist background. Shame on those who support those politicians who were on sale through ISI etc. PTI has not been tested yet so people should give them a chance to prove. If WE vote to PML-N and PPP again then we will suffer even stronger than last 5 years. I bet you.

How come you survey 5000 people and decide who will win with a population of 180m. Pakistan needs a honest PM with a honest team to sort out this mess we are in, and I think it’s about the time we give chance to fresh people. We have tested usual ones couple of time they don’t deserver more chance.

Total number of people who participated in this survey is 4900, LOL. These surveys don’t represent the ground situation. PPP is still in good position to win with majority in Sindh, Balochistan, KPK and South Punjab.

@Sifat Ullah: & to all those who’re asking how does a sample of 4997 people be used.
First of all this not a question of rationality, its a question of statistics, which is actually a complete branch of mathematics. A complex methodology(explained on IRI’s website) is used to select this small group of people & margin of error is added. Nobody is saying that this is true reflection of 180million, but to talk of rationality, is it really rational to go about and ask all 180million people & ask they’re opinion- ofcourse not, this is where statistics come into play

Interesting results. Lets see how things shape as we approach elections. For now looks like it is PML in Punjab, PTI in KP, PPP/MQM in Sindh and Hung Assembly (as usuall) in Baluchistan. At national level PML/PPP collation, only this time roles are reversed. MQM and Maulana Fazal will be part of the government (alliance with whom ever wins). PTI probably official opposition.

For Ordinary citizens, Same old traffic Jams, load shedding and corruption. On the positive note free laptops for everyone!!.

We need to learn that ‘majority is right’ OR ‘majority is authority’ is a slogan used to deviate people from the truth and reality. We must acknowledge that in our society certain things are quite common such as firendship b/w boy and girl, back biting, drinking and other various sins which majority of the people living in our society do on daily basis. What I am trying to say that as a nation we have no issue in doing several wrong things and in defence we say that everybody does it. Because everybody does does not mean that it is justified. Similarly there is a possibility that people are supportng PML-N but it does not mean that it is RIGHT.
Pakistanis have forgotten the meaning of right and wrong, difference fake and real, and on the similar lines we have forgotten the poor performances of PML-N and PPP. Our memory is very short. We are suffering from a disease called ‘short term memory loss’. We are still supporting them (PPP and PML-N) as we are doing several sins as part of our routine life. We as nation have aleady lost our character and ethics and the evidence of the same is that Mr. Zardari is our president. Our vision is short term and views are always biased, approach to politics is immature, understanding of the regional, international politics is unclear, lack of knowledge of economics. We talk about accountability of politicians but never do our own. In this election if we choose the same people (which we are likely to do so) then results will be severe for us.Recommend

@Umair:
what sort of performance are you talking about mate?? have you ever visited to those whom affected by MBS in lahore, for your kind information they are still suffering and demanding compensations of their lost properties and businesses, and here we go CM of Punjab is going to give another lolly pop to the people of Punjab and that outstanding, mind blowing, well visioned and brilliant idea is to give solar energy lamps (Oo my days). Do we really deserve that sort of leadership, do we really want to be depending on them and licking there feet OR do we need a credible, honest, loyal, visionary and educated leadership which can help us to build our future on strong bases and can give peaceful, livable, and progressive country for up coming generations, that is the time to decide and its the decision of DO OR DIE, hope you understood.

@Kashif Hussain:
My Family & me has waste our vote for voting for PML-N twice they have done nothing but destroyed Pakistan now if i vote for them again it will be like striking a hammer on your own foot i believe PTI deserve a chance & please dont believe that crap that if we vote for PTI we will help PPP.

Pakistan should cherish this opportunity to vote for a progressive party with a honest hard working leader Imran Khan. Nothing short of a revolution is required in Pakistan. I don’t believe this survey is credible due to the points raised by PTI. However if people do vote for Nawaz and his hawks, they will almost immediately be disappointed within a few months when the country carries on declining in all respects

@Umair:
PTI is not in the government and punjab govt is using all govt resources to run party campaign. they are just bribing people to get their votes. whole province revenue is down from last 5 years and still it is decling. Have they made any long term planning for next 10-20 years? What do you expect from PTI to do when they are not in power? Is Punjab crime free? are they all paying thier texas? are business flourishing in punjab? tell me one good thing about punjab govt….

@Neo:
hahahahaha…good governance…… PTI is not in the government and punjab govt is using all govt resources to run party campaign. they are just bribing people to get their votes. whole province revenue is down from last 5 years and still it is decling. Have they made any long term planning for next 10-20 years? What do you expect from PTI to do when they are not in power? Is Punjab crime free? are they all paying thier texas? are business flourishing in punjab? tell me one good thing about punjab govt….

Absolutely fake survey.
Proven by some of journalists that PML(N) is client of company who was organizing IRI survey in pakistan .
Propoganda speciallists and lie tellers patwariis are nothing but show bazi..

PML(N) is performing what??
27km road of lahore has destroyed education and health budget of whole punjab.
Law n order situation is worse than PML(Q)’s CM ship.
People are not going to accept fake surveys and fake statements of PML(N)
@Umair:

plz dont be folish again by voting status-co parties like PPP.PMLN. Vote for change . vote to pti vote to imran khan.. U have seen the performance of PPP as well AS PMLN what did PMLN in 5 year here in punjab???? no electricity production instead just give lamp why they dont use that money to produce electricity??????????? and many isssuesss like Danish Schoolll Laptop scheme bla bla