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2016 - Pick A Pocket

Submitted by Captain Qahn on Tue, 2015-12-15 04:27

The 'Climate Show' conundrum has coincided with the lowest Oil price in decades, with Natural gas prices following suit, with Iraq et al now pumping out more than ever, is the economic world plunging itself into a www. world wide wallow?

"Oil prices could slump to $30 per barrel in 2016 and could stay low throughout the year, said Russian Finance Minister Anton Siluanov, warning of tough times ahead.

Deputy Finance Minister Maxim Oreshkin said Russia is drawing up plans based on the price fluctuating between $40 and $60 until at least 2022.

That scenario would have devastating implications for OPEC, according to Oreshkin. It would also spell disaster for North Sea producers, Brazil’s off-shore projects, and heavily indebted Western producers. “We will live in a different reality,” he added." Source: https://www.rt.com/business/325851-oil-plunge-record-glut/

An alternative reality? Them & US - Here the UK/EU (FoR inc.) is about to launch into space, while across the 'duck' pond the Fed's are about to 'lift off' by raising interest rates, the first substantial rate rise since the crash; "So the Fed needs to ask itself why, after six years of recovery, do businesses and households need it to intervene with higher borrowing costs if they are already restraining themselves from borrowing more.

Without the European farce that followed the 2010 botched rescue of Greece, and the splurge in spending by the Chinese (that Beijing subsequently needed to calm this year with its own borrowing clampdown), US interest rates would already be 2%, not 0.25%. Reading the business cycle, the Fed’s moment has passed.

Even though the UK’s recovery is no more than three years old, the Bank of England is in much the same position."

The Guardian goes on to explain that whilst low interest rates may have been handy for digging oneself out of a hole, when almost out of that hole low interest rates encourage more debt. Cyclic. But only if your face fits.

Down under thumbs this up as the 'Wild West of fundraising". The Australian takes the act of 'housebuying' as an example of Uberisation:

"Imagine instead a simple online interface that could generate a tailored credit score for you, taking into account your future earning potential based on your education and location. It would connect you to lenders ranging from banks and credit unions to pools of individuals who want to lend privately at a negotiated rate for whatever duration you agree on. You could shop around, combine different types of financing and arrange a mortgage package that best suits you, all within a few hours.

We aren’t quite there yet, but we may be soon. Over the next decade, the familiar 20th-century modes of banking and investing will give way to something very different." We are on the verge of the Uberisation of finance, which will bring multiple new opportunities but also a range of new risks.

The ubiquitous ride-sharing company uses a simple device — the smartphone — to connect people who want rides with people who want to drive them. Uber is a hi-tech middleman that is making the intermediaries of the past obsolete. The financial world is one of the most mediated industries on the planet, and that is precisely what is about to change. Uberisation also means using vast amounts of data to make those connections feasible."

Yep, indeedy for the Day of Aquisition I was tempted to acquire a 'Smartwatch' for the critter, thanks to the tinternet I discovered they ain't so 'smart' ... an all inclusive device, not a two in one blue tooth thingy... baskets & buttons, who needs a 'tagging device'... No doubt very soon it maybe compulsory to wear one, kids, crooks, terrorists, consumers ... profiled. Profound. So yep 'uberisation' is the buzz.

Back to the Wizard of Oz : Could come in handy this side of the pond: "The US JOBS Act of 2012 contained a seemingly innocuous provision making it easier for start-ups to raise money from investors previously deemed too poor to dabble in such ventures. At the end of October, the US Securities and Exchange Commission finally approved the rules, which will go into full effect early next year. As a result, any company or person with an idea can solicit and raise up to $US1 million ($1.42m) without most of the onerous regulatory and reporting requirements of the past."

Imminent or of the future: "The most immediate change will be an explosion in peer-to-peer lending. Just as Uber returns us to a world where anyone with a car could offer a ride to anyone with a thumb, peer-to-peer lending is both new and old. Before there was a robust retail and commercial banking system, there were people with money to lend and people who wanted to borrow it. But the current wave of peer-to-peer services takes this much further, into a hypercharged virtual realm where pools of small lenders can combine online to disperse pools of small loans. And they can do it without the friction, cost or heavy regulatory hurdles of traditional banking."

On dreamers v bricks and mortar: "Loans to large companies are up over the past decade, but lending to small business has contracted, from more than $US700bn in 2008 to less than $US600bn today, according to the US Small Business Administration. As for the Silicon Valley ecosystem of venture capital, it certainly doles out funds to dreamers, but it excludes many types of businesses, especially brick-and-mortar ones."

"We are on the verge of the Uberisation of finance, which will bring multiple new opportunities but also a range of new risks. The ubiquitous ride-sharing company uses a simple device — the smartphone — to connect people who want rides with people who want to drive them. Uber is a hi-tech middleman that is making the intermediaries of the past obsolete. The financial world is one of the most mediated industries on the planet, and that is precisely what is about to change. Uberisation also means using vast amounts of data to make those connections feasible. Technology is one source of this shift, but so is legislation. The US JOBS Act of 2012 contained a seemingly innocuous provision making it easier for start-ups to raise money from investors previously deemed too poor to dabble in such ventures."

The Hitch: "core services such as lending money, raising capital and investing for clients still depend on a firm to act as a conduit — and as a choke point."

Ergo, the Banks are 'choked'. "Venture capitalists clearly believe that non-traditional lending will be a huge market, especially for millennials who, in survey after survey, express distrust and disdain for traditional banks." Technology is about to outsmart the banks, they know it we know it what are they doing about it? Chilling. Thats where the FED's come back in ... raising interest rates and puking oil out faster than a can can.

Jason (Argonaut) - "Disruption" is just a fancy way of saying "I don't want the rules to apply to me".

Oooh - that was a big leap, frog. The Catch 22 - with total 'uberisation' who needs politicians or for that matter Presidents? Or for a WW Osmond show, yep tis possible to stay awake to the end of Oz.

Murphys Law.

And on this side of the pond for 2016 we have an imminent energy crisis, an imminent interest rate rise, some distant devolution and EU referendum, a Northern Poor House and before the big pig out, today we have a Peak in space.

Q: Can members of the Commonwealth nations vote in the referendum, and if not, why not?

"... Commonwealth citizens have special rights when living in the United Kingdom—more than what any old immigrant would get. An Indian citizen who resides anywhere in the United Kingdom—that's England, Scotland, Northern Ireland, and Wales—has the right to vote in local and national elections and can also help select members of the European Parliament..."

"...1949 London Declaration. This established, in brief, that all members were free, independent, and equal to one another, and that they recognized King George VI as the symbolic head of their association, known as the Commonwealth of Nations. Several dozen countries have joined since. Typically, joiners have a historical connection to Britain (as in, they were colonies), but in 1995, Mozambique (which was not part of the empire) became a member. To get in, applicants must demonstrate a commitment to democracy, including fair elections and representative legislatures, accept that intra-Commonwealth discussions happen in English, and acknowledge Queen Elizabeth II as their ceremonial leader. Participation in the Commonwealth is completely voluntary—any nation could opt out at any time. Members are supposed to commit themselves to the group's ideals, but they don't have any contractual obligations per se (as do members of the United Nations, for example)."

"It was the only moment Mr Carney appeared to bridle, responding to Jacob Rees-Moggs' "beneath the Bank's dignity" attack with a testy "I cannot let that stand".

That's about as close as a central bank governor comes to blowing his top."

An there's more : "Mr Carney said an exit was the biggest domestic risk to financial stability. Risks could include a fall in the value of the pound, the ability of the Bank to control inflation and banks moving their headquarters out of Britain.

If Britain votes to leave the EU, Mr Carney said the Bank "will do everything in our power to discharge our responsibility to achieve monetary stability and financial stability".

He said that there were measures that the Bank of England could take in the short term to support the financial system but said he could not rule out the possibility that there could be issues with stability....

"Mr Carney was also questioned about the financial sector's reaction to an exit.

He said: "One would expect some activity to move, certainly there's a logic to that and there are views that have been expressed publicly and privately by a number of institutions that they would look at it, and I'd say a number of institutions are contingency planning for that possibility."

On Monday, the Bank of England pledged to offer extra funding to the financial market before and after the June vote, in case uncertainty put pressure on the banking system."

"Secondly, we will get behind Yorkshire’s innovators and entrepreneurs. Yorkshire’s ground-breaking inventions of the past include stainless steel and cat’s eyes on the roads. Today, we are supporting quantum computing research at York and enhancing the new Royce Institute for Advanced Materials at the universities of Leeds and Sheffield. We’re backing Siemens’ massive investment in renewables by creating an Enterprise Zone in Hull and the Humber. And we are funding incubator space for tech start-ups in Sheffield and Leeds.

As we leave the EU, the British government will underwrite science investments made by EU institutions, so that key investments in Yorkshire – like EU funding for advanced materials in Rotherham – are not disrupted.

And to help us realise the benefits, the Government will now develop a proper industrial strategy to back Yorkshire’s strengths, whether it is financial and health technology in Leeds, advanced manufacturing in South Yorkshire, or innovative new textiles in West Yorkshire.

But Yorkshire doesn’t just have industrial strengths – it is also naturally and architecturally beautiful. It has the stunning landscapes of the Dales, the North York Moors and the East Riding. That’s why we are backing rural tourism and events like the Yorkshire Festival....

"But crucially, we will underline all this by devolving real power to people in Yorkshire. The population of this region is more than five million but until recently there has been no devolution of power to Yorkshire people...."

"It urged parents to destroy the watches, which are widely available on the German market and target children between the ages of 5 to 12...

They are to be seen as a prohibited transmitter...

Surveillance is a particularly sensitive issue in Garmany where East Germany’s Stasi secret police and the Nazi era Gestapo kept a close watch on the population... they can be used to secretly listen to conversations, an act that is prohibited under German law, the agency said."

"The first scans for alien technology aboard a mysterious object that is barreling through the solar system have found no evidence it is the work of an intelligent civilisation.

The cigar-shaped object was spotted hurtling through the solar system in October and while astronomers suspected it was an interstellar asteroid, its curious shape led them to propose sweeping it for radio signals in case it happened to be an alien craft.

While the long, slender object may have been well suited to flying through clouds of interstellar gas at breakneck speed, as some researchers noted, the observation that the body was tumbling through space suggests any aerodynamic advantage was at best minimal...

The first batch of four observations ran from 8.45pm UK time on Wednesday until 2.45am on Thursday morning and spanned a frequency range from 1 to 12 GHz. While the search for alien signals has so far found nothing in the 1.7 to 2.6GHz range, the rest of the data is still being processed..."