MGR banks on surge of sympathy for him to translate itself into votes

How ill is MGR, really? The election campaigns of practically every party in Tamil Nadu hinge on this crucial question.

The AIADMK, whose leader is undergoing major treatment at the Downstate Medical Center in Brooklyn, New York, has been banking on the surge of sympathy for him to translate itself into votes for the party in next fortnight's elections to the state Assembly as well as the Lok Sabha.

But such simple presumptions might turn out to be wide off the mark. As a sceptical villager in Andipatti constituency - for which MGR filed his nomination from his hospital bed - remarked, "How do we know whom to vote for when we are not even sure that MGR will return fit to assume office again?"

It is precisely because they see the AIADMK as a one-man party that people like the Andipatti villager are confused about how to react to its charismatic leader's illness. The sense of mystery and secrecy that surrounded the initial stages of his health crisis, combined with the guarded and sometimes contradictory statements about his condition by the Government have led to suspicion about how well or ill the puratchi nadigar (revolutionary hero) of Tamil films really is.

The Opposition, particularly the DMK, has missed no opportunity to keep such suspicions alive. In a campaign speech in Thanjavur on December 6, DMK President M. Karunanidhi took pains to point out that Dr Eli Friedman, a leading American nephrologist had said in an interview with The Hindu that the politician would not regain his power of speech for another six months or a year.

J. Jayalalitha breaks down as she plays MGR tape: Star turn

"The falsehoods of medical bulletins and statements on MGR's health issued by the state Government and Health Minister H.V. Hande have crossed all limits," declaimed Karunanidhi. "One day the chief minister's secretary says the chief minister enquired about the AIADMK nominations for the Assembly. Another day Dr Hande says MGR does not even know of Mrs Gandhi's assassination. Where is the consistency in all this?"

Turning the "sympathy wave" adroitly to his own advantage, the wily DMK chief never neglects to express his own wishes for the speedy recovery of his "friend of 40 years", and promises that if elected, his party will continue to meet the entire expenses of MGR's medical treatment.

For its part, the AIADMK is making an all-out effort to convince the masses - and MGR's considerable fan following - that its chief is indeed getting better and will soon be back with them. Information Minister R.M. Veerappan was quick to release photographs of MGR purportedly taken at the Brooklyn hospital to prove that he is cheerful and recovering rapidly.

A documentary film was made on the chief minister in the US to buttress this point. But Karunanidhi was equally quick to discredit such tactics: "I will book a trunk call to America, will MGR come on the line and talk to me?"

The chief minister's condition has become the subject of a legal dispute as well. P.N. Vallarasu, the Tamil Nadu Forward Bloc candidate who is ranged against MGR in Andipatti, has filed a writ in the Madras High Court seeking that the chief minister's nomination be declared invalid.

Vallarasu contends that MGR affixed his left thumb impression on the papers, but thumb impressions can be entertained only if the candidate is illiterate. Vallarasu has cited the Representation of People Act to prove his point.

Meanwhile, the AIADMK campaigns seemed geared to milk the sympathy wave dry. The party's glamorous star campaigner Jayalalitha Jayaram, MGR's heroine of many films who barnstormed Madurai district - where Andipatti is located - early this fortnight spared no histrionics to whip up the sympathy of the people.

In Andipatti on the evening of December 3, she swept into an open ground to make her speech, perched atop a ladder jutting out of a van, gleaming smile fixed firmly in place. "MGR's health is showing rapid progress despite all the political propaganda by the opposition parties. The revolutionary hero will be coming back to Madras soon," she declared while the women in the audience jostled each other restively for a better glimpse of the former actress. "Will you, therefore, vote overwhelmingly for the revolutionary hero? Will you ensure that when the ballot-boxes are opened and emptied for counting, twin leaves (the AIADMK election symbol) fall all over the place?"

If there was only a tepid response to her harangue, it didn't faze her. Jayalalitha interrupted her speech to play a cassette of MGR singing one of his own favourite songs. As the audience watched, she listened keenly, wiped a tear from her eyes, and covered her face.

When the tape spun to an end, she cleared her throat and resumed her speech. The tears in the eyes of some of the women in the audience seemed to vindicate her efforts, but the issue is not really simple any more.

"We shouldn't ditch MGR, he has done a lot for our constituency," remarked Karuthandi Naicker, an old farmer among the listeners. But a young man said: "Have you been reading the papers? I don't think that all this lady is saying about his quick recovery is true at all."

Others are just as sceptical. In Thanjavur, farmer Karuppasamy who attended Karunanidhi's campaign meeting said: "I wonder if a vote for AIADMK will any more be a vote for MGR. Who will vote for the AIADMK if MGR is not going to come back to active public life again?"

Autorickshaw driver Pandyan commented: "MGR himself is very clean and honest, but I have my own doubts about the people around him. If one cannot be sure that he is coming back, why should I vote for the AIADMK?"

Equally dangerous for the party's chances are the internal rifts within the party which is more or less rudderless just now, without one strong leader like MGR to keep discipline. Even within the two broad pro- and anti-Jayalalitha factions, new subgroups have emerged.

Some rebels refused to withdraw their nominations despite the party's dictates, and stand defiant in the field. Rebel AIADMK candidates are pitted against Congress(I) men in Tirunelveli's Kovilpatti and Vilathikulam constituencies, for instance.

A danger to the AIADMK's chances are the internal rifts within the party which is rudderless without a strong leader like MGR to keep discipline.

Resentment against the way seats have been shared with the Congress(I) continues to simmer. Some partymen feel that safe AIADMK assembly seats have been unwisely handed over to the national party.

For instance, the Kapilarmalai assembly seat, from where the sitting AIADMK MLA C.V. Velappan has won thrice has now been conceded to the Congress (I). Omalur in Salem, which the AIADMK won during the last two assembly elections, has also been given to the Congress(I).

Altogether the AIADMK will contest 154 seats, the Congress(I) 72. Their smaller partners like the Gandhi Kamaraj National Congress, the All India Forward Bloc and the Republican Party of India will between them share 8 seats.

On the other side of the lines, the DMK will contest 158 seats, leaving 17 each to the CPI(M) and the Janata Party, 16 to the CPI, 10 to the Peasants and Workers Party, seven to the Tamil Nadu Kamaraj Congress, six to the Muslim League and three to the Tamil Nadu Forward Bloc. S.D. Somasundaram, who quit the AIADMK to form his own party, the Namathu Kazhagam will, along with his allies field 124 candidates in all.

The fight will be equally keen for the 39 Lok Sabha seats. The Congress(I) will contest 26, the AIADMK 12 and the Gandhi Kamaraj Congress one. On the Opposition side, the DMK will contest 26, the Janata Party five, the CPI and CPI(M) three each and the Tamil Nadu Kamaraj Congress and Muslim League, one each.

Election fever is certainly on in Tamil Nadu, with flags and garish posters everywhere. But ironically enough, the outcome of all this frenetic activity is tied up with the fate of a sick man lying in a hospital bed in faraway America.

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