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NCAAF Picks

College Football Picks: Wisconsin to Cover Double Digit Spread over Purdue

The Badgers get a very big break this week as they play Purdue at home. Wisky needs not only to win this game, but do so in impressive fashion. Check our college football pick inside.

Kickoff is scheduled for 12:00 p.m. ET on October 17th at Camp Randall Stadium in Madison, Wisconsin according to 5Dimes, the Badgers are a healthy 19.5 point betting favorite. Any team is capable of coming up with a huge effort on any given day. Are the Boilermakers capable of pulling off the upset against the college football odds in a game that is very important to Wisconsin?

Turnovers Will Kill a Team
Although the Boilermakers were outgained 408-275 in yardage in a 41-13 loss to Minnesota, they committed 4 turnovers in the game and that was the difference. Minnesota got off to a slow start, leaving the door open for Purdue, but Minnesota quarterback, Mitch Leidner caught fire in the 3rd quarter with 2 touchdown passes and David Blough threw 1 of his 3 interceptions in the final minutes of the 3rd quarter that was taken back to the house for 6 and this game was over as Minnesota outscored Purdue 28-0 in the 3rd quarter.

Quarterback Status Uncertain
David Blough took over for an injured Austin Appelby and I have a feeling that the Boilermakers will continue to stick with Blough. If that's the case, he must stay away from the turnovers or this game will have a similar outcome as last week. Blough has been nothing but a serviceable, inexperienced freshman. He and the Boilermakers gave the Michigan State Spartans a run for their money just 2 weeks ago in a 24-21, therefore he is capable of leading this team to a win if Wisconsin has an off day.

I would expect for Markell Jones to get more carries in this game than last week. Jones had just 6 carries for 7 yards last week and this coming off of a 157 yards, 2 TD effort against Michigan State.

Common sense would say to run down Jones down Wisconsin's throat as he's proven that he can compete against the best. If the Boilermakers don't use Jones, they'll definitely use D.J. Knox. Knox is coming off of a solid 60 yard effort with 1 TD last week. Purdue must get the running game going to set up the passing game, but with either David Blough or Austin Appelby behind center, I'm not expecting much.

As for Wisconsin, just like Alabama, defense is the story as the Badgers allow just 11.5 points per game. They basically win with their defense and being efficient on offense, eliminating turnovers.

Team Depth
Quarterback, Joel Stave, has a wide array of options to choose from offensively, whether is the two-headed monster of Dare Ogunbawle (426 yards, 3 TD) and Taiwan Deal (357 yards, 4 TD) in the running game or Alex Erickson (463 yards, 1 TD) and Robert Wheelwright (261 yards, 3 TD) via the pass. Purdue is simply overmatched and to ask them to score against Wisconsin appears to be an unenviable task. Bet Wisconsin as the college football pick on this matchup.