THE 1992 CAMPAIGN: CALIFORNIA

THE 1992 CAMPAIGN: CALIFORNIA; Perot Dominates California Race That He's Not In

By R. W. APPLE Jr.,

Published: May 24, 1992

SAN DIEGO, May 23—
Ross Perot is threatening to steal the California primary, too.

In a week of unrelieved good news for the Texas billionaire on the national scene, he also hogged the spotlight in the country's largest state, which holds its election in 10 days, on June 2. The Los Angeles Times poll confirmed what the California Poll had said the week before: the maverick independent is leading President Bush and Gov. Bill Clinton of Arkansas, the likely Democratic Presidential nominee.

The debate here is not about Mr. Perot's performance at the polls, since he is not on either major party's ballot, and it is doubtful that write-in votes for him will be counted. Nor is the debate about how big a victory Mr. Bush will gain over his conservative challenger, Patrick J. Buchanan, or whether Mr. Clinton will beat his sole remaining Democratic rival, former Gov. Edmund G. Brown Jr. of California.

The debate is about Mr. Perot in the weeks to come: Will he last? Whom does he hurt? What does it mean? 'Political Revolution'

"What has happened," said Mervin Field, the director of the California Poll, "is that the boom for Perot has pre-empted public attention and enervated the other campaigns. Except for him, the public doesn't see the ballot box as a means of doing anything about whatever it is that ails us. There's just so much political space in people's heads, and for the moment at least, Perot fills it."

Mr. Perot's unorthodox campaign has stirred interest across the state and generated enthusiasm in Hollywood, where his support spans the spectrum of the entertainment industry. [ Page 20. ]

Stuart Spencer, the Orange County sage who has advised Republican clients for three decades, including Ronald Reagan, said Mr. Perot's success so far was one more sign that "we're going through a political revolution in this country, brought on by abysmal neglect of important issues."

"At a time of national alienation, he's the candidate of change," Mr. Spencer said. "He has great credibility because of his business success. People may turn on him and say he's wrong on the issues or weak on the issues, but that's only 50-50. They may say instead, let's roll the dice with him, what the hell; at least he's got no umbilical to the establishment.

"And if that happens, obviously, he could win the whole thing."

Mr. Perot is not a candidate in the California primary. But after last week's results in the Oregon and Washington State primaries, where he apparently polled a sizable number of write-in votes on both the Republican and Democratic sides of the ballot, many expect something similar to happen in this state. Difficulty With Write-Ins

It will not be easy for voters to record pro-Perot sentiments here. Write-ins are difficult on the kinds of punch cards California uses. Any write-ins for Mr. Perot will not even be counted, according to March Fong Eu, California's Secretary of State, because his backers have not filed a formal declaration of candidacy.

That could well mean that the surveys of voters leaving the polls conducted on election night by Voter Research and Surveys, a consortium of four television networks, will draw more attention than the tabulation of votes.

A low turnout is apparently in prospect, even among black and Hispanic voters who might have turned out because of the Los Angeles riots and because of a ballot measure in Los Angeles on whether to put the chief of police under the mayor's control.

"The riots will raise awareness among black people, and make them see that they need to get involved somehow," said Robert Maynard, the editor and publisher of The Oakland Tribune. "But they're not going to see the voting booth as the place to do it. By this fall, if the right things are done, just maybe, but not in June. They aren't even registered to vote."

Phil Angelides, the state Democratic chairman, is one of the few California political figures who doubts that Mr. Perot is a major reason for the low level of interest in the Presidential primaries. He said a much more important factor was "the lack of a real contest, with Bush as good as renominated and Bill Clinton close to a presumptive nominee." Potential for Havoc

But Mr. Angelides said there was no question the Texan had the potential to create havoc for the major parties in California this fall.

"Voters are tired of George Bush," he argued. "But they have significant doubts about our ability to lead the country, and we haven't, Bill Clinton hasn't, made the case yet. Ross Perot requires us to find some passion. He means that we won't win just because Bush is unpopular."

As recently as four weeks ago, Mr. Brown looked as if he might defeat Mr. Clinton here. It has happened before to all-but-certain Democratic nominees coming into California. Mr. Brown did it to Jimmy Carter in 1976, Edward M. Kennedy did it to Mr. Carter again in 1980 and Gary Hart did it to Walter F. Mondale in 1984.

In none of those contests did the California results keep the loser from the nomination. A Brown victory this year would probably not do so, either. But it would be an embarrassment to Mr. Clinton, already weakened by a bruising campaign, in a state he desperately needs to win in November.

A Brown victory looks increasingly unlikely to most politicians in the state, although the polls show him within hailing distance of Mr. Clinton. No member of his family, the state's premier political dynasty, has ever lost a primary in California, and he retains a following among key elements of the Democratic electorate, including women, environmentalists and gay and lesbian voters, even if his negative ratings are high with some other groups. Talk of 1996

Mr. Brown talks more and more about next year and about 1996 as he pushes himself through a breakneck schedule: Pomona, Oakland, San Francisco and San Diego on Friday; Riverside, Bakersfield, Fresno and back to San Francisco today. He said this week: "What you have to do is go all over the country and build a movement. You have to take over the party."

Mr. Clinton has been spending much of his time outside the state, raising money, campaigning elsewhere and staying the long weekend at home in Little Rock. He debates not Mr. Brown but Mr. Bush, as in their sharp exchange about the American family in Cleveland on Thursday.

For Mr. Buchanan as well, 1996 seems the focus. He seeks to establish his credentials with California's conservatives for a race that might pit him against Vice President Dan Quayle, Senator Phil Gramm of Texas, Housing Secretary Jack F. Kemp and Defense Secretary Dick Cheney -- conservatives all.

And all the while, it is Mr. Perot who grabs voters' attention.

"This guy, this cowboy riding into town on horseback, is absolutely seductive for people in this state," said Eric Shockman, a professor of political science at the University of Southern California. "Californians love this junk.This is the mythology of Hollywood come to life, a revisiting of the B-movie actor who gets elected governor and then President."

If that appeal persists, it could matter mightily on the national scale, because California is Big Casino, with 54 electoral votes, far more than any other state.

California is also electing two Senators this year, a rarity for any state, but even that is not stirring the kind of activity and interest that might be expected. There are not many rallies, there is not much television coverage. There is only the war of the commercials. Quiet Campaigning

"It's a stealth campaign," said Rosalind Wyman, a Democratic National Committeewoman whose political activity stretches back four decades. It is also a costly campaign. Ten Senate candidates spent $9 million among them between April 1 and May 13, according to official fund-raising reports, and have $5.1 million left.

In the campaign for the remaining two years of the term that John Seymour, a Republican appointee, is now serving, Mr. Seymour seems assured of renomination, and former Mayor Dianne Feinstein of San Francisco leads by about two to one for the Democratic nomination in most polls.

There are tense races in both parties in the fight for a full six-year term in the seat from which Senator Alan Cranston, a Democrat, is retiring next year. Bruce Herschensohn, a conservative broadcaster from Los Angeles, is trailing Representative Tom Campbell of Palo Alto in the Republican contest, but polls indicate that Mr. Campbell's support is soft. Mr. Herschensohn's law-and-order appeals in the aftermath of the riots have not helped him so far.

Nor have those of Representative Mel Levine, one of the three main contenders in the Democratic free-for-all battle for the Cranston seat. A media blitz pulled him back into the race last month, but his climb in the polls stopped after the riots, despite new commercials denouncing "mob rule."

Lieut. Gov. Leo McCarthy and Representative Barbara Boxer are the other main contenders, she emphasizing women's issues to a Democratic electorate that is 57 percent women, he pitching his advertisements at the middle class and moderates.

Among the candidates in the dozens of primary contests for seats in the House of Representative is Maureen Reagan, the former President's daughter, who is running in one of the districts in the Los Angeles area.