Google Predicts Super Tuesday Results

According to Google’s results, Obama and McCain will be the front-runners for their parties after today. The amount of Google searches for a candidate’s last name has directly correlated with the winner of that state in every primary and caucus to date.

From the Iowa Caucus on January 3rd to Maine’s Caucus on February 1st, the search trends for the candidates last names have directly correlated with their wins. So far, with our methodology we have been 100% accurate in determining the winner. We think we have a good chance of accurately predicting Today’s Results.

Here are the predictions:

STATE

GOP

DEM

Alabama

Not enough data

Not enough data

Alaska

Not enough data

Not enough data

Arizona

Romney

Obama

Arkansas

McCain

Clinton

California

McCain

Obama

Colorado

Romney

Obama

Connecticutt

Mccain

Obama

Delaware

Not enough data

Not enough data

Georgia

McCain

Obama

Idaho

NA

Obama

Illinois

McCain

Obama

Kansas

NA

Not enough data

Massachussetts

Romney

Obama

Minnesota

McCain

Clinton

Missouri

McCain

Obama

Montana

Not enough data

NA

New Jersey

McCain

Obama

New Mexico

NA

Obama

New York

McCain

Obama

North Dakota

Not enough data

Not enough data

Oklahoma

McCain

Obama

Tennessee

McCain

Obama

Utah

Romney

Obama

West Virginia

Not enough data

NA

Note: “Not Enough Data” indicates that there was not enough search data in Google Trends to create a graph. “NA” means the primary will take place at another date.

Hey ron guy,
We knew that a search for “Ron Paul” might skew Google’s results, because he has a rather common name. And since we were only searching based on last names, and also based on who we thought had the best chance of winning in the first place (Ron Paul doesn’t fit either category to create statistical significance) we left out Ron Paul.

As much as Ron Paul would not like to hear this, we chose the top 4 candidates who are most likely to win their party. There has been a huge internet push for Ron Paul from the beginning while we were looking for a more natural flow of search traffic. Additionally, if you look in specific regions, Ron Paul does not perform as well as you might think.

I for one hope that Romney does better than Google is predicting. But it’s scary how accurate it has been. Stay tuned for Feb. 8th when we find out the Google Trends data, and if it really can predict the winners.

Great find. What is even more interesting are the lines below which follow the news and media about that name. Notice that the ordering is similar, does this imply that the more money you have and the more PR you get the better your election outcome will be?

That’s an interesting thought. The problem is, Clinton has spent the most so far in the Democratic party, and Romney has spent the most in the Republican Party. That’s total money spent though, not just on advertising or PR.

@RonGuy Interesting, but look closer at the lower graph and you will see that Ron Paul is getting little to no actual press coverage and that is what will be having a very influential affect on voters.

@teddie and neil – it’s interesting that although McCain won the Arizona primary as expected, Romney put up a very strong showing in that state (34% compared to McCain’s 48%).

Also, if you look at the current Google trends data from Teddie’s link, it shows McCain pulled ahead of Romney in Google Trends as well. The data was just a few days behind so when Nelson and Adam did their research it was showing Romney ahead, but McCain surged ahead since the data was originally compiled.

I’m looking forward to the follow up post that will explain the results and compare with updated data to see if there are other states that saw a similar surge in searches for the eventual winner.