Rain could bring mudslides, holiday travel headaches, to Woolsey and other burn areas

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Shane Clark’s home burns as his dad Keith helps get some of his belongings that were saved by firefighters on Hitching Post Lane after the Woolsey fire swept through the Bell Canyon neighborhood of West Hills on Saturday, November 10, 2018 . (Photo by Kevin Sullivan, Orange County Register/SCNG)

Wet weather in a large swath of Southern California scorched by the massive Woolsey fire could complicate holiday plans, with concerns over mudslides expected to peak with the heaviest rain slated for one of the busiest travel days of the year.

A quarter-inch to 1 inch of rain is predicted for most areas beginning Wednesday, with the heaviest rain expected for the coastal slopes and foothills, raising the prospect of potential mud or rock slides, particularly along Pacific Coast Highway and the various canyon roads.

Recent burn areas are at risk for mud & debris flows when heavy rain occurs. There is a 20% chance of debris flows on Wed. IN ADDITION – rock/mudslides are always a risk on canyon roads when it rains! #SoCal#CAwx#CAfirepic.twitter.com/lFTeCGTCLJ

Authorities have had a week to prepare for the likely rain, and are tracking the storm system closely. They are warning those living in or near the Woolsey fire burn area to remain vigilant during the coming week.

Residents who live or travel near the areas burned by the Holy fire – which scorched more than 23,000 acres in the Cleveland National Forest in Orange and Riverside counties – and the Cranston fire – which blackened more than 13,000 acres south of Idyllwild in Riverside County – are also advised to keep a close lookout for potential slides.

Meanwhile, efforts to reach full control of the Woolsey fire continue to inch forward, with fire officials on Sunday night announcing 91 percent containment of a blaze that has charred 96,949 acres and destroyed at least 1,452 structures across Ventura and Los Angeles counties. The containment percentage grew from 84 percent Saturday night, while new mapping saw the affected acreage decline from 98,362 acres reported Saturday night.

Temperatures were expected to warm up slightly on Sunday in the areas impacted by the fire, with humidity dropping. But the winds that have dictated so much of the fire’s growth were expected to remain weak.

As they have for the past few days, fire crews are mopping up the remaining hot spots within the fires existing footprint and patrolling both the interior and perimeter of the burn area. Other teams were still assessing the damage left by the flames, an effort officials estimated is about 85 percent complete.

The damage estimate has continually moved upward, as crews get a better handle on the full impact of the fire. Besides the 1,452 structures reported destroyed as of Sunday night, another 337 were damaged.

As of Sunday morning, there were no evacuation orders active in Ventura County. In Los Angeles County, portions of Malibu remained under evacuation notice, while residents in other parts of the community have been allowed to return.

More than 1,800 firefighters were still assigned to the Woolsey fire on Sunday, as crews endured their 11th grueling day of battling the blaze.

After first erupting near the former Rocketdyne site south of Simi Valley in Ventura County on Nov. 8, the wind-driven blaze quickly crossed the county line, jumped the 101 Freeway and burned through countless neighborhoods on its path toward the sea. As winds died down by Nov. 10, crews began to halt the progression of the fire, and reached an early, 5 percent containment of the blaze.

At the fire’s peak, more than 250,000 were left displaced by the flames, and more than 50,000 structures were at risk.

Despite fears that the return of strong winds earlier this week could hamper their efforts, fire crews have made consistent, daily progress on increasing the containment, which refers to the percentage of the perimeter of the fire beyond which officials do not believe the flames will move.

Even for communities re-opened to residents, the return to normalcy is an ongoing process. Schools in Malibu are expected to remain closed through the Thanksgiving weekend, giving district officials time to have environmental specialists, industrial hygiene specialists and other experts make sure the air quality and campuses are safe.

Sean Emery is a crime and public safety reporter for the Register who covers state and federal courts and criminal justice issues. He has worked for the Register since 2006, previously covering breaking news, the city of Irvine, the Orange County Great Park, and the city of San Juan Capistrano.