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I RECENTLY spent time in Pakistan talking to officials and opinion makers about the emerging geopolitical scenario in South Asia. I heard three types of views.

The most sceptical voices, mostly security establishment members and conservative strategic analysts, see the US-India partnership as an existential threat for Pakistan. The argument is that Cold War-type alliance structures are forming in and around South Asia whereby the US-India combine is manoeuvring to challenge the China-Pakistan alliance.

In this framing, the US has looked the other way as India has expanded its influence in Afghanistan — read, created a two-front situation. The goal is to undermine CPEC. The most extreme version was explained via maps as one where external powers were engineering a breakup of Pakistan.

The second grouping, also representative of parts of the security establishment and independent strategic thinkers, share the view that India is trying to keep Pakistan unhinged and that the world is unfairly blaming Pakistan for Afghanistan’s woes but they are willing to be far more self-critical. They do not see any grand design to cut Pakistan to size.

Rather, they feel that alliance structures in and around the region are in flux and Pakistan can benefit from its critical location. To avail this though, they argue that Pakistan must not act as a pawn in great power competition, and should focus on creating incentives for all-emerging great power camps to work with it positively.

The third camp, mostly from the development and civil society space, blames Pakistani policies, not the world, for the country’s woes. The central issue for this group is the security-centric approach to foreign policy that has ignored pressing development and social welfare concerns. Some single out what they characterise as the army’s India obsession and the alleged resultant use of proxy militants.

Connectivity needs to drop the ‘look west’ approach.

The conversation across the three cohorts converges on two points. One, that more of the same is no longer a tenable option. Without serious efforts to change things, Pakistan will grow increasingly weak and isolated.

Two, there was a remarkable consensus on what to do. In unisons, the answer was utilising the economic potential of the country’s location by acting as a connectivity hub. Everyone seems to agree that only this can make Pakistan’s neighbours genuinely dependent on Pakistan’s stability.

To be sure, the three camps have different visions of what this ought to look like. The first wants to create connectivity sans India; the second also feels that this is most likely in phase I given India’s presumed reluctance to allow Pakistan additional leverage through connectivity; the third argues that the effort must include all neighbours for efforts to bypass India (and India’s to bypass Pakistan) will imply that both rivals would continue to see the other’s connectivity efforts as a threat.

Regardless, this debate is encouraging. It represents a massive change in the direction of overall thinking, especially among the strategic enclave which has long seen regional integration as a euphemism for handing India a decisive advantage.

Still, the question on how to harness this sentiment and translate it into policy needs more work. A genuine move towards cementing Pakistan’s position as a connectivity hub would require major internal changes.

First, the ‘look west’ approach to keep out of India’s orbit of influence has been the ethos of Pakistan’s foreign policy for decades. Con­nectivity requires a move away from this, and so an alternative national narrative about the importance of positive neighbourhood ties. It also means that the talking point about CPEC being a substitute for broader global relations must be dropped. At least the longer-term vision must imagine a wholly integrated region.

Second, current bureaucratic structures are not equipped to backstop this vision. The Foreign Office would need to be rewired to become a hub of geo-economic (rather than geostrategic) diplomacy. New linkages will also be needed among ministries: for regional connectivity, commerce (trade and transit), planning (CPEC and new development around connectivity), interior (visas), and relevant provincial departments would become central. There is even a case for a body directly under the prime minister to coordinate regional connectivity functions across the civilian and military spheres.

Third, the larger policy community, specifically think tanks and strategic analysts and journalists, should be incentivised to study various connectivity scenarios. State-linked think tanks and the National Defence University (military’s equivalent) could be tasked to take the lead in preparing a cogent vision for a regionally connected Pakistan.

Finally, and most importantly, the needle must move on actual policies that continue to worry the world about Pakistan. Yes, the world would surely have to play its part in easing the pressure. But this requires a clean break from securitised approaches to protecting regional interests. Otherwise, Pakistan will remain stuck in the rut.

On DawnNews

Comments (26) Closed

Sensible suggestions by the author. But is it a bit utopian giving the mindset of the security establishment and the lack of strategic space for civilian institutions?

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SHAHID SATTAR

Mar 13, 2018 08:50am

As pointed out in the article, if only Pakistan was in a position to change things, which is impossible for it in the ongoing process of formation of alliances. It will be foolish for the country's decision makers to only work for the economic growth of the country. That would only help the vultures to watch with patience and wait for the appropriate timing for the strike to take the cake and the cookies with minimal losses to them.

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R S Chakravarti

Mar 13, 2018 09:01am

I hope Pakistan is successful in making the necessary policy shift. One point that was not mentioned here: the armed forces need to be brought under the civilian government. Hope it is possible. Else it will just be more of the same.

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Khalid

Mar 13, 2018 09:35am

Well written but do we have the visionary leadership this is a million $ question.

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shriraj

Mar 13, 2018 09:38am

excellent read

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Amir Ali Balouch

Mar 13, 2018 10:00am

Good article.

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KRANTI

Mar 13, 2018 10:20am

Very good for the West...

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Zak

Mar 13, 2018 10:23am

India cannot figure in any regional plan, until it agrees to sit and resolve Kashmir. No one can have trade, when kubushan' s are being caught and Kashmiri's in IOK are being killed.

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Ahmed Ali Khan

Mar 13, 2018 10:57am

Superb analysis - our government and state institutions (including defense establishment) should hear experts like Moeed Yusuf a device a five-year plan of sorts.

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Tarzan

Mar 13, 2018 10:58am

The country is confused and directionless. The plan is to break rather than bend.

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wellwisher

Mar 13, 2018 11:03am

good analysis, will take fifteen yrs to fructify

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M.M. Amin( Old Ravian)

Mar 13, 2018 11:50am

Great thesis.what looks understated is the drift of India towards Hinduvita, a virulent and ,viewed in a thousand years perspective, an anti Pakistan , aggressive stance . A useful input for our policy planners , thanks,Mr Yusuf .

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Fuzail Zafar

Mar 13, 2018 12:07pm

Foreign Office must operate in geo-economic rather than geo-strategic terms. Spot on!

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THOUGHT PROVOKING

Mar 13, 2018 12:30pm

Well Articulated !!!The pakistan Foreign Policy Makers intelligentsia and Foreign Policies Think thanks with having strong collaboration should need to review pakistan Foreign polices for protecting regional interest in a broders perspective with understanding its geopolitical and Economic Strategic depth in this region.The world is going to be divided with making and spreading with formations of New regional Strategic Alliances for the protections of their great Economic and political interests internationally .This kind of Structural formations of Economic and regional Alliances would be benefited for the balance of the power and economic stability in south Asia and in this this region .The both military and Civil Leaderships Foreign polices Think tanks should need to develop a mutual consensus on one point Agenda for the great interests of pakistan. The CPEC would become a strong economic game changers in this region we should have to support it strongly in this region.

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Dr.TK

Mar 13, 2018 12:31pm

"But this requires a clean break from securitised approaches to protecting regional interests. Otherwise, Pakistan will remain stuck in the rut."
Absolutely agree. There is NO OTHER WAY!!

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azaad

Mar 13, 2018 02:28pm

Brilliantly written. Smart analysis and one hopes someone will listen!

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SK

Mar 13, 2018 04:36pm

Why Pakistan can't focus on its economic & social development & uplifting programmes.

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Maria enteparia onnuchoriu

Mar 13, 2018 04:51pm

No out of the box solutions are offered in the article, a bunch of ifs and buts.

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Atif Siddiqui

Mar 13, 2018 06:05pm

When majority of the nation's budget is allocated to security, no matter how you manage it, there will always be a shortfall. Pakistan should come out of this situation.

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Khalid

Mar 13, 2018 06:06pm

@Zak
Same old thinking got us no where. Need to change the course. Hatred must stop all around.

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JAY CHOUDHURY

Mar 13, 2018 08:09pm

Changing vision will need changed mindset , when one gets old its very difficult to change your perspective . It more easy for the new generation . Similarly Mr Yousuf being from the new breed and based overseas can see and articulate better . Till this happen Pakistan's destiny will not change .

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Azad

Mar 13, 2018 09:10pm

I'm afraid Pakistan may have already missed the boat on regional connectivity & building leverage due its location. India has already bypassed Pakistan to reach Afghanistan via Chabahar and it has taken control of another fully developed port in Oman. In fact, Pakistan is now blocked from connecting to Central Asia & Middle East by Afghanistan.

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Qatar Choudhry

Mar 14, 2018 01:31am

It's a worth implementing advice, but if you see the capitals around the world including where are you sitting; covert policies are followed. USA still deceiving the Pakistan in every field. Nonetheless, we must draw a red line in our foreign policy, the line till where we can accept the foreign pressure. Our foreign policy should be balanced to look after our interest both in geoeconomic and geostrategic domains.

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Alba

Mar 14, 2018 01:53am

If Pakistan looks east instead of west Europe and America will be happy. Then West just erected a large sign in the window. NO Help Wanted.

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Sarfraz

Mar 14, 2018 06:04am

Pakistan need the”look self” approach. It should not be to depend on someone.

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Shubs

Mar 16, 2018 06:02am

A paranoid security state that still has not figured out why it was created. Sees ghosts in every shadow and an Indian invasion around every corner. Every neighbor looks like a threat, every calamity looks like a conspiracy. A state of mind directly related to lack of education and lack of information.