Avignon/Halle(Saale). INRA and CNRS French scientists and a UFZ German scientist found that the worldwide
economic value of the pollination service provided by insect pollinators, bees mainly, was €153 billion in 2005 for the
main crops that feed the world. This figure amounted to 9.5% of the total value of the world agricultural food
production. The study also determined that pollinator disappearance would translate into a consumer surplus loss
estimated between €190 to €310 billion. The results of this study on the economic valuation of the vulnerability
of world agriculture confronted with pollinator decline are published in the journal "ECOLOGICAL ECONOMICS".

According to the study, the decline of pollinators would have main effects on three main crop categories (following FAO terminology); fruits and vegetable were especially affected with a loss estimated at €50 billion each, followed by edible
oilseed crops with €39 billion.
Foto: André Künzelmann/UFZ

Among biodiversity concerns, the decline of pollinators has become a major issue, but its impact remains an open
question. In particular, the economic value of the pollination service they provide had not been assessed on solid
ground to date. Based upon the figures of the literature review published in 2007 on pollinator dependence of the main
crops used for food, the study just published in ECOLOGICAL ECONOMICS uses FAO and original data to calculate the
value of the pollinator contribution to the food production in the world. The total economic value of pollination
worldwide amounted to €153 billion in 2005, which represented 9.5% of the value of the world agricultural production
used for human food that year.

Three main crop categories (following FAO terminology) were particularly concerned; fruits and vegetable were
especially affected with a loss estimated at €50 billion each, followed by edible oilseed crops with €39 billion.
The impact on stimulants (coffee, cocoa…), nuts and spices was less, at least in economic terms.

The scientists also found that the average value of crops that depend on insect pollinators for their production was
on average much higher than that of the crops not pollinated by insects, such as cereals or sugar cane (€760 and €150
per metric ton, respectively). The vulnerability ratio was defined as the ratio of the economic value of insect
pollination divided by the total crop production value. This ratio varied considerably among crop categories with a
maximum of 39% for stimulants (coffee and cocoa are insect-pollinated), 31% for nuts and 23% for fruits. There was a
positive correlation between the value of a crop category per production unit and its ratio of vulnerability ;
the higher the dependence on insect pollinators, the higher the price per metric ton.

From the standpoint of the stability of world food production, the results indicate that for three crop categories –
namely fruits, vegetables and stimulants – the situation would be considerably altered following the complete loss
of insect pollinators because world production would no longer be enough to fulfil the needs at their current levels.
Net importers, like the European Community, would especially be affected. This study is not a forecast, however,
as the estimated values do not take into account all the strategic responses that producers and all segments of
the food chain could use if faced with such a loss. Furthermore, these figures consider a total loss of pollinators
rather than a gradual decline and, while a few studies that show a linear relationship between pollinator density
and production, this must be confirmed.

The consequence of pollinator decline on the well being of consumers, taken here in its economic sense, was
calculated based on different price elasticities of demand. The price elasticity represents the effects of price
change on consumer purchase, that is, the percent drop in the amount purchased following a price increase of 1%.
In our study, we assumed that a realistic value for the price-elasticities would be between -0.8 and -1.5 (for a
value of -0.8, the consumer would buy 0.8% less of the product when its price increases by 1%). Under these
hypotheses, the loss of consumer surplus would be between €190 and €310 billion in 2005.

These results highlight that the complete loss of insect pollinators, particularly that of honey bees and wild
bees which are the main crop pollinators, would not lead to the catastrophic disappearing of world agrioculture,
but would nevertheless result in substantial economic losses even though our figures consider only the crops which are
directly used for human food. The adaptive strategies of economic actors – such as re-allocation of land among crops
and use of substitutes in the food industry – would likely limit somewhat the consequences of pollinator loss. Yet
we did not take into account the impact of pollination shortage onto seeds used for planting, which is very important
for many vebetable crops as well as forage crops and thereby the whole cattle industry, non-food crops and, perhaps
most importantly, the wild flowers and all the ecosystemic services that the natural flora provides to agriculture
and to society as a whole.
Tilo Arnhold

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At the Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research (UFZ) scientists research the causes and consequences of far-reaching environmental changes. They study water resources, biological diversity, the consequences of climate change and adaptation possibilities, environmental and biotechnologies, bio energy, the behaviour of chemicals in the environment and their effect on health, as well as modelling and social science issues. Their guiding research principle is supporting the sustainable use of natural resources and helping to secure these basic requirements of life over the long term under the influence of global change. The UFZ employs 900 people at its sites in Leipzig, Halle and Magdeburg. It is funded by the German government and by the states of Saxony and Saxony-Anhalt.
The Helmholtz Association helps solve major, pressing challenges facing society, science and the economy with top scientific achievements in six research areas: Energy, Earth and Environment, Health, Key Technologies, Structure of Matter, Transport and Space. With 25,700 employees in 15 research centres and an annual budget of around EUR 2.3 billion, the Helmholtz Association is Germany’s largest scientific organisation. Its work follows in the tradition of the great natural scientist Hermann von Helmholtz (1821-1894).