Ryan O’Reilly, Avs preparing for Wednesday arbitration date

Ryan O’Reilly of the Colorado Avalanche warms up prior to facing the Chicago Blackhawks at the Pepsi Center on March 8, 2013, in Denver. (Doug Pensinger, Getty Images)

Wednesday in some office room in Toronto, the Avalanche will face off against Ryan O’Reilly, pun intended.

It really does look like they are going to arbitration, folks. No last-minute settlement — as often happens between player and team right before an arbitration date — is likely. Both sides in this matter don’t like it when I say there is “bad blood” between the two sides, that this is all just business and nothing more.

But I wasn’t born yesterday. If they don’t like “bad blood”, how about “perceived differences in value that has gotten a bit personal.”

The Avs didn’t like it when I wrote in the middle of last season that, hey, why not get something done with Ryan O’Reilly long-term right now, why risk going into the summer without a new deal between them and O’Reilly and potentially have things go sideways like they did before and during the lockout-shortened 2012-13 season? The Avs told me that things were good between them and O’Reilly, and that they had peacefully agreed to postpone serious talks until the summer — and gave me the indication that it would be a foregone conclusion that a new, long-term deal would happen.

Silly, gullible me. Because, here we are on July 18 with no long-term contract between Ryan O’Reilly and the Avalanche. In fact, we are five days away from that arbitration hearing and this thing almost certainly is going to happen.

A few things about the arbitration process, including something I didn’t know before and was briefed on this morning:

Both sides have to submit their “paperwork” with the arbitrator 48 hours before Wednesday’s hearing.

Because the club (Avs) filed for the arbitration, the player (O’Reilly) gets to choose how long he wants the contract to be, either one or two years. He has to do this before the arbitrator renders the judgment, not after, like I had thought previously. I think O’Reilly will choose a one-year deal. Why? Because I just have to believe the arbitrator will split it down the middle on this, which would make his base salary at or close to $6 million. That automatically makes his next qualifying offer have to be that much after the coming season.

Oh, and one more thing: If O’Reilly takes a one-year deal, that probably makes it harder for the Avs to get full value for him in a trade. It’s easier to trade a guy of his caliber with two years left on his contract than one. You don’t think it’s gotten personal? Just wait. The actions will tell.

The arbitrator can award nothing less than 85-percent of O’Reilly’s last base salary ($6.5 million), so the least O’Reilly will make on a one or two-year deal is $5.525 million per.

The arbitrator can award O’Reilly more than $6.5 million if he or she wants. If Newport Sports, the agency representing O’Reilly, presents a compelling enough case as to why he should be awarded that or more, it could happen. And stranger things have happened.

The bottom line: They can call it “it’s business, it’s nothing personal” all they want, but it is a bit personal again between the two — and I have no earthly idea how or why this could have happened again.

In a sense — not in a real one, but in a theoretical way — I’ve tried to be the middle-of-the-road, go-between mediator to both sides in this. I’ve asked things like, “Why can’t you guys just hash this out, why haven’t you gone in with the attitude of, ‘We’re not leaving this room until we have a deal,’ is there still a way the gap can be bridged,” and basically the answer I get from each side is: “It’s up to them. Go ask them that.” And I’ll be like. “Well, why don’t you go ask it yourself and then hash out a deal, why this standoff situation again?” And then I get more of, “It’s up to them.”

Each side has their dollar figures in mind over what O’Reilly should get going forward, and they simply aren’t willing to compromise to get a deal done. Just like last time.

This whole thing has surprised me, and I’m sure you, from the get-go. The thing I don’t get is:

Historically, whenever the Avs have publicly stated their desire to get something done with a player, and praised that player’s ability, they have gotten deals done. When they get quiet on a player, when they don’t say anything nice, that has usually meant they are a goner.

The Avs have done all that with O’Reilly. So, it remains something of a shock to me and many others in the hockey world that they were the ones who elected for arbitration. Now, we all understand why, on paper, that makes good short-term financial sense; the Avs could get a 15 percent pay cut on what they paid out of pocket to O’Reilly last year — and still guarantee that he’ll be at training camp for this coming season.

But if the goal was always to get a long-term deal with O’Reilly, then of course by electing to file for arbitration against him, it has left him/Newport miffed and seemingly destroyed any real chance for that long-term deal now. Rarely has a team ever done this with a top player. The O’Reilly camp is saying to themselves right now, “They want to give us a haircut over me/us having our best pro season ever, and they want to make us look bad by being one of the only teams ever to take us to arbitration. We’re supposed to act happy about that?” Almost always, it’s the player who files for arbitration, not the club.

What is so surprising to me is that, by going public with how they want him long-term and saying such nice things about him as a player, the Avs are now setting themselves up to have to go to the fans and say they failed. And admitting that just amounts to bad public relations, especially, when it was/is so clearly about money, which we all know the Kroenkes have plenty of. They are setting themselves up to be called “cheapskates” again by their loyal fans. Why do they want to do that, after such a great, positive last season?

“Well, because it’s important that we maintain a proper salary structure and if we just start giving every guy what he wants, willy nilly, then we’ll wind up like a team like Philly or Boston, who were strangled by the cap this season and either had to let key guys go or couldn’t sign anybody on the open market that they really wanted.”

And that’s fine. But nobody who seriously follows the Avs wants to see Ryan O’Reilly let go because of a relative chump change difference in money. Now, if O’Reilly just doesn’t want to play here anymore, for whatever reason, and is refusing all offers, that would be different. But Newport Sports is still very much open to doing a long-term deal if the Avs can come up on their offer.

The Avs haven’t said as such to me, so I won’t put words in their mouths. But, come on, do we not think they’re not now miffed at O’Reilly again, for not playing ball within the team’s salary “structure,” for wanting the starting point for negotiations to be at or very near the $6.5 million number and not the $5 million cap hit number? Of course they are. So, they’re publicly taking him to arbitration.

And by doing that, they’ve gotten O’Reilly’s back up again. He can now, in his mind, rightfully say to himself: “These guys never valued me for what I gave them, they had to be held up at gunpoint to give me a contract the last time (Calgary’s offer sheet) and then I go out and have a great season and my reward is being publicly humiliated by being taken to arbitration. I’ll play out my two years and then go UFA. Or, they can trade me before that.”

The Avs no doubt are thinking something along the lines of, “This guy didn’t want to be a team player with us. Matt Duchene could have gotten more, but he took a five-year deal at $30 million. But O’Reilly, he thinks he’s better than that and thinks he’s automatically worth a half-million more a year than Duchene because of that ridiculous offer sheet, and he’s forgetting all about that first year of his deal deal ($3.5 million, $2.5 million of which was a signing bonus). Well, we have our principles, and if O’Reilly doesn’t want to play ball within them, we’ll play the same kind of hardball he did with us. We’ll either get two years out of him and let him go outright, and maybe win a Cup in that time. Or we’ll deal him away if we get a good enough offer for him, and we know teams will be interested.”

That’s where this is all headed still, in my estimation. He’ll be traded within the two years, and the Avs had better think long and hard about keeping him much beyond say, right now, because his trade value is likely to go down every day that gets closer to his UFA date. Guys who are soon-to-be-UFAs just don’t get that much on the open market anymore in the cap era. We saw that with the relative pittances teams such as L.A. and Montreal paid at the deadline for guys like Marian Gaborik and Thomas Vanek.

By Friday of next week, at the latest, we will have a story of “Ryan O’Reilly signs contract with Colorado Avalanche.”

Unfortunately for die-hard Avs fans who love O’Reilly: it won’t be a long-term contract, and it will probably be the last one he ever signs with the club.

As you should. Hiring Sakic was nepotism as its best. The guy has no business as a GM with his resume. Outside the Tanguay/Sarich for Jones’O’Brien trade everything Sakic has done is awfully questionable.

Avaholic

Really?

Brought in Patrick Roy and Francois Allaire? The two non-player guys most responsible for the Avs turnaround in one year.

Drafting Nathan MacKinnon? The Calder Trophy winner. You think he should have taken Seth Jones? MacKinnon won the Calder, and had over 98% of the vote. Seth Jones had just over 1% of the vote.

You can’t judge him based on this off-season, because you don’t know what effect it will really have. If Iginla only scores like 8 goals, and Briere spends the whole season in the press box, that’s one thing. But you can’t tell how those moves are really going to play out until they do.

What else has he done?

NorthernAvalanche

He’s been alright as a GM but not great.
I wasn’t really a fan of the downie trade and I’m still not. He could have traded Stastny at the trade deadline, but didn’t. He traded Parenteau for Briere which is questionable but might work out. He also gave a 2nd round pick up for Reto Berra who has looked aweful so far, even if he does improve this season there’s no way we should have given up more than a 4th for him. 2nd rounder for Brad Stuart is also questionable.

rockiesghost

Well, you have to wait 3-4 years at least to find out about the moves he has made. right now it is too early to tell.
AVS have been bashed about all the moves they made in last few years, with Washington and st. Louis. In case of Washington it is very clear that who won that deal, also Chris stewart is not even in St. Louis while we have EJ who is playing better than Shattenkirk and Duncan Siemens from that deal. give it time and we will find out.

wofats

I liked Downie a lot. But I have to say that I think the trade was a good one to make. Downie plays hard, but gets injured for it. He has passion, but takes penalties for it. Talbot has been solid. He’s leadership for the youth, he’s not much of a liability, he’s consistent. And does help the PK.

I’d say the Berra and Stuart moves have been questionable. The Stuart move I’m giving him a pass on because he may not have had many option and we *needed* a new top pair defenseman.

The Berra move seems very questionable, but the fact is if Roy and Allaire see something in this guy, I’m willing to give them the benefit of the doubt.

bob_w

Good of you to give Sakic a pass on the Stuart trade as it was not his.

Jimbotronn

I’m guessing by the “top pair defenseman” bit that he means Brad Stuart, not Chris.

bob_w

My apologies. I was thinking he was talking about Chris Stewart for Eric Johnson.

Eric Lessard

This is just par for the course. Apparently the Avs think the break-out season last year and the future of the franchise revolves only around our top three draft picks. I’m bitterly disapointed with losing the core of this (used to be) young team. I’m expecting a lot of injuries and not a lot of winning next season.

Hank Mardukis

Plenty of young players peak young, there isn’t anything preventing last year from being O’Reilly’s best year ever.

Additionally, if the Avs are smart they won’t lose him for nothing. Losing one guy (hopefully in a trade) doesn’t equate to “losing the core”.

Hank Mardukis

See ya, Ryan. Don’t let the door hit you on the way out. He’s managed to fuck up contract negotiations with two different front offices now. How many more times does he have to do this before it’s his fault and not the team’s fault?

As a die-hard Avs fan I couldn’t care less if O’Reilly is traded, on one condition. As long as they get good value it matters not if they trade him. Hopefully it’s to Buffalo or Florida where he can be the “man” collect his money and never win anything.

avsfoodsleep

Exactly! He needs to go to the highest bidder. Don’t even care whether we get a Dman or a forward, just treat it like the draft and grab the best player(s) available!

Ric

This stupid situation is looking close to unsalvageable.

Avaholic

I don’t blame the Avs front office at all in this. The company he uses as his agent is well known for it’s tactics. This is what they do. They demand the highest pay, even if the player doesn’t deserve it, and I don’t find it coincidental that when a player makes more money, so does his agent.

Mr. Dater, with all due respect, if both sides are repeatedly and consistently saying it’s not person, maybe, just maybe, *it’s not personal!*

Picture this hypothetical situation: O’Reilly’s agent knows what O’Reilly will be worth on the open market as a UFA in two years. Let’s pretend that number is 6.5 million. They know if they can get to free agency, that’s what O’Reilly will make on a long-term deal because some team will offer that number.

Now, pretend you’re the Avs. You’ve determined O’Reilly’s value within your own team’s structure and it’s, say, 5.5 million. You offer O’Reilly a long term deal at that number. You’re willing to compromise, but not go above 6 million. If you’re O’Reilly’s agent, why would you accept that deal when you *know* that you can get your client 6.5 million per year in free agency two years from now? O’Reilly’s agent can smugly sit there and say to the Avs “If you want to keep O’Reilly long-term, you’re going to have to pay the open market price for him” – and he’s right!

So, a long-term deal is now out of the question. The Avs are left with three choices: 1) Sign O’Reilly as an RFA for 6.5 million for the next two seasons, 2) let him sit out again and wait for a qualifying offer from another team, or 3) take him to arbitration. Only one of those options involves paying O’Reilly anything close to what you feel he’s worth AND involves O’Reilly being forced to sign a deal and be on the team next season. Arbitration is the ONLY option that makes any sense for the team with a long-term deal being out of the question.

So you see how everything that’s happened could be possible without it becoming childish and personal and you seem to assume it is. This could very easily be purely about business and money. You can hate O’Reilly all you want for caring this much about money, but I don’t see the point in creating drama when it isn’t there. All you’re going to accomplish is turning the fans against O’Reilly or against Avs management or both.

Gary Gosik

Paul Stastny managed to get 7m per. I’m thinking Pat Morris believes O’Reilly can get something around that in the next 2 years. Right now, they feel 6.5 is more than fair.

Chris DeMott

Paul Stastny was an unrestricted free agent — the Avs had to bid against every other team equally. This is different. Under the current collective bargaining agreement the Avalanche own his rights. If another team were to make Ryan an offer the Avalanche would have the right to match it or if they didn’t choose to, the Avalanche would be compensated with draft picks by the team that made him the offer. For this year that period has already passed and no team made Ryan any offers. So “fair” isn’t the issue right now. The fact that apparently, Ryan doesn’t want to sign a “bridge” deal is. Ryan thinks that it is worth the gamble that he will continue to increase his performance year by year and get big UFA dollars in 2 years when the Avs don’t own his rights anymore. The Avalanche may have different opinions of what his performance value will be in two years and think that they can sign some UFA’s of their own to continue improve the team. Keep in mind that Patrick Roy has said that he is using the Kings as a model to build this club towards.

Ryan

Colorado wants to sign him long term. Pat Morris knows this and knows that in 2 years when O’Reilly is to become a UFA, he will easily be able to get 7m per year on the free market. I would assume he is trying to get Colorado to pay close to that if they want to keep his services.

Chris DeMott

Except that giving him everything he wants won’t keep him around in two or three years. He will still go to the highest bidder. That’s the Stastny lesson — there is never any credit for money already paid.

Adrian Dater

That all sounds great Mark, and it’s a reasonable argument. Except, none of it will happen. If it were not personal between O’Reilly and the Avs, he would not be going to arbitration right now. The Avs are taking the best of their “worst-case scenario” options right now – hope to get as much out of O’Reilly as they can within two years, at a price more of their choosing, before they unload him.

Pollardinio

Very, very well-said, Mr. T.! I hope he stays with the team well beyond the next two years, as well.

We don’t know what the actual numbers are. What if the Avs are offering 5 million and his camp wants 6.5 million? That’s not pennies and may be worth the gamble, which in O’Reilly’s mind might not be a gamble at all.

avsfoodsleep

that’s a bad wager on his part, he got hurt celebrating a goal ;)

Chris DeMott

They didn’t want to “start” at less than $6.5. I think your post above is correct.. Arbitration was the only choice the Avs had short of signing him to an accelerated deal starting at $6.5 which would ruin any future negotiating leverage they have with guys like Mack, Dutchy Barrie etc… not to mention screwing up the chemistry in the room. I don’t think that some fans understand this. It isn’t like “rich” Stan Kronke can just spend whatever he wants like Dater seems to be inferring. There is a long term cap structure that they must adhere to and ROR doesn’t want to play along. He wants to pretend that he is UFA now.

Pixelrebirth

I think having a team salary structure is the only sane way to manage a team in the salary cap era. Good on management for not stupidly going outside of that sanity (aka Statsny in St. Louis or Kane in Chicago)

Everyone has made the assumption Duchene is the cap limit internally, I dont believe that. I think you will see Mac make a hell of a lot more if he becomes what we all want him to be. The only way we will be able to PAY HIM is by not making stupid deals with players that dont see the purpose for structure.

Lose him to UFA, so what? That’s cap room. Worked out in the Stastny for Iginla swap.
The necessity to trade isnt what it used to be. Teams are much less likely to trade now anyhow.

Get him for a year or two and let him go. We have a team to build, not a salary to pay.

javadoody

Lost him to UFA, so what???? We could have gotten something, a decent draft choice, and still had Iginla. No, we blew it because we waited.
Hey I like Joe, but he’s new at this. He’s making mistakes, and I just hope the ROR saga doesn’t go the way of Stastny. He walks, we get nothing.

rockiesghost

They needed Stastny for the run since the core was young and mackinnon needed to develop a little more and without Stastny AVS would not have won the division and they kept him because of his experience, whatever they were going to get in return would still be too young without experience which would have not helped him for a year or two. Its silly to pay 3rd line center 7 million which Stastny was going to be in Colorado.

javadoody

Sorry, I disagree. You attribute too much to Stastny for the “development” of MacK as far as I’m concerned. And I’d never pay Stastny that much, no way is he worth that. But I think we could have gotten something tangible in return for him, unlike what Pixel says below.
My point being don’t waste ROR if the handwriting is on the wall, which it may very well be at this juncture. As unfortunate as that may be.

bob_w

We did get something tangible for Stastny. We got the rest of the season and won the division. That is worth more than high round picks that are statistically unlikely to make the team.

rockiesghost

i did not mean that Stastny was responsible for his development, Mac just needed more time to develop.

Kyle William Douglas

Although it’s a shame stastny was a rental for us this playoffs I don’t think the offers for him were very good anyway, recuperating the Berra second rounder would’ve been nice but not sure we’d have seen more than that.

Pixelrebirth

I guess what I am trying to say is by trading Stastny for someone else, we would have the overhead of their contract on the salary as well as Iginla. I am not so sure anyone would have even given us decent draft picks at the deadline. It was a done deal a long time ago.

The right cost is important to ensure the future is all I am saying. Getting nothing is not relevant in the cap era because of it. Budget and structure is critical now.

rockiesghost

here is the thing, he is not as good. for example, he disappeared in the playoffs, because Matt was not feeding him the puck, AVS were a one line team, he is a solid two way center or whatever, but he is not a creative player and that’s why he doesn’t deserve the money he is asking for. I agree with whoever posted here, send him to sabers or panthers where he can be the man and then everyone realize he is a good two way center, not someone to build a team around, which means he is a complimentary player and thats what he always will be. The AVS front office has already decided that this guy is a goner and they will get whatever they can.
This organization has win 2 Stanley cups in its 20 years of history, you should look at some of the teams which have not won anything in 20-30-40 years by throwing money around. I doubt even if he is good for the locker room, where all the others think this guy is all about money. bye bye o’Rielly!!!

Ryan

A lot of his goals came from nice passes/set up from his line mates.

Gary Gosik

I never said Ryan was as good as Matt. I believe Matt is extremely talented. He would easily put Ryan to shame if they were to ever go one on one. However, I feel Matt is also extremely under paid, and Ryan shouldn’t be obligated to also take such a big pay cut just because Matt did. Many teams would be happy to have Ryan for 6+ million a season. Ryan just wants to be paid what many feel he deserves. You’re right on the fact that the Avs will probably trade him away. Which I think will come back and haunt us. Unless we manage to get a top defenseman or something decent to make up for losing last seasons Lady Bing winning team leader in goals, league leader in take-aways, and not to mention, the hockey smarts that managed to get all of those take-aways while managing to get a near zero risk 2 penalty minutes all season long.

AvsFanVA

Maybe you don’t understand what the ‘restricted’ means in restricted free agent. That means you don’t get to demand to be the highest paid player on the team, especially when you’re not the best player on the team. In 2 years, when he is an unrestricted free agent, Ryan can go wherever he wants and get paid whatever he can get. Until then, he CAN’T.

Gary Gosik

It is quite a simple concept to understand the difference between a UFA and restricted. Maybe you don’t understand that we will lose him like we did Paul Stastny if we approach this wrongly.

AvsFanVA

It’s quite a simple concept… he doesn’t want to play in Colorado. Good riddance! I’m tired of this guy demanding to be the highest paid player on the team. He AINT that special. So, we hope he takes the 2 year arbitration deal so the Avs can trade him, and wish him well in all his future endeavors.

Gary Gosik

I personally really hope we can sign him long term, although I know that is not going to happen at this point. So I guess I agree that him taking the 2 year and us trading him off would be the next best scenario. I just don’t want to lose him period, let alone to unrestricted free agency down the line.

Pollardinio

Agreed. I don’t want to lose him, either, but we will get a proper return for him if it comes down to that.

Pollardinio

They won’t let that happen. Absolutely no way. Staz mis-lead the Avs, but the Avs were fine with it because we already have three centers who will be as good or better than Stastny is when they reach their peak. I honestly think they want O’Reilly to be a big part of the team’s future, but it entirely depends on him and if he has the balls to fire Pat Morris and not listen to his dad. If he keeps it up, he’ll be gone and I don’t buy any of that “he’ll lose his value every day” nonsense because nearly every team in the league will be willing to give A LOT up for his services to the Avalanche in a trade. It’s a win win for us and coin-flip for O’Reilly.

rockiesghost

Well, i hope they get a good return and i am sure they will try their best. Also, although Matt took a discount but he is also smart enough to realize that John Tavares is also making 5.5 for the next three years. I am trying to figure out who O’Rielly or his camp thinks they are comparable too.

Hank Mardukis

Duchene is not underpaid. There isn’t a single comparable in the NHL that shows either Duchene or O’Reilly should be paid much more than $6 million a year.

Jon E.

Agreed. Duchene isn’t over paid at 6mm/year. In fact, I’d say there’s a case to be made that he’s slightly over paid when you compare his output to the likes of John Tavares who is making 5.5mm/year on a long term deal and has 52 more career points than Duchene does. To say that Duchene took a discount is ridiculous in my opinion. Could he have gotten more? Sure, he could have gone the same route O’Reilly is taking and hold out for every last time, but the fact is, Duchene wants to be with the Avalanche and that’s been evident by the lack of dramatic contract negotiations dating back to his bridge deal (where he was under paid) to his long term extension where he’s right where he should be in my estimation. O’Reilly is being extremely greedy in my opinion and he doesn’t care if he plays with the Avs or not…which is a slap in the face to the team who selected him in the 2nd round and allowed him to make the team out of camp as a rookie. They’ve given him every opportunity to succeed from starting him as a third line center and putting him in top 6 roles in recent years. O’Reilly is undoubtedly a good player but it’s foolish to say that his success isn’t a direct reflection of the players that he’s had the privilege of playing with next to him.

19knight21

Well I don’t want to see Ryan leave , but at this stage who gives a crap now. I would expect Mackinnon to get a nice contract very soon ! I think Ryan is worth 6 million a year tops. Score 40 goals and still get your take aways etc then come with your agent and talk all this stupid smack. I would love to see Evander Kane here asap seeing they need to make a trade worth talking about. Get on the phone now Sakic with the Jets seeing you know he is walking quite soon just like #26 did. Don’t procrastinate here ……

chantalrouleau

The Avalanche is doing the right thing by having a structure. They will have pretty soon to sign MacKinnon and resign few key guys and that will command a lot of money even though the cap will go higher. Losing O’Reilly will hurt, but the Avalanche has got to have a salary structure otherwise they won’t be able to keep their superstars. What would be disastrous would be to lose O’Reilly for nothing. The Avalanche already lost Stastny for nothing, let’s not do the same with O’Reilly.

aaronsanchez

Stasnty sucks! Get over the pussy!

AvsFanVA

Dear Ryan,

You are NOT the best player on the Avalanche. You and your agent may think you’re a ‘special’ player, but that’s just code for “we want more money than is justified by your stats”. The first time you did this, you went out of your way to convince Av’s fans that “it’s not about the money”. Now we know that, it is, ALL ABOUT THE MONEY.

It’s also quite clear that you have no interest in staying in Colorado. Do us a favor – take the 2 year arbitration deal so the Avs can trade you and make you someone else’s ‘special’ player. Otherwise, we’ll have to put up with this again after next season.

P. S. PLEASE take Dater with you when you go.

Thanks.

Av’s Fan

Gary Gosik

At least Dater shows legitimate interest in this organization and it’s current events. As compared to many of the other popular Colorado sports writers.

Smell the Glove

Lot of conjecture based on assumption.

Plus I don’t know why it’s so certain, we, the fans, are supposedly going to blame the Avs for not getting ROR signed long term. Looks to me like most of the comments (and up votes) have been siding with the front office.

avsfoodsleep

I remember last year, there were A LOT more ROR supporters eh?
I think that in the short time these guys have been in office they have built up a lot of trust with us (Central Champs!). As a result, we have to assume they are doing whats best for the organization. Which makes ROR a greedy little punk. lol I was always on the front office side mainly because I cant get past the fact that he is 23 and 5.5mil “isn’t enough”. I did let him back in my heart during our playoff run thinkin’ to myself “how could hey NOT wanna sign with this team?”

Pollardinio

Indeed. There is no point overreacting until O’Reilly is signed long term or is traded for optimum assets. I want the Factor to stay on our team, but after all we’ve seen this summer and the last year, I trust in our system and our front office to make the right moves.

AvsFanVA

Gee Denver Post, don’t you think maybe the Avs filed for arbitration this time because THE PLAYER sat out last time?

This article brought to you by Newport Sports Management, Inc. The premier representation and management agency of professional hockey athletes.
Thanks for playing!

hmdenver

I don’t get how a 4 year contract at 6 mil per season doesn’t get this deal done? the arbitrator could decide on a 5.5 mil contract for his next 2 seasons as a RFA and he could probably get 6.5 mil avg as an UFA so a 4 at 6 per seems like a fair deal for both sides. If ROR wants UFA money for the full term of the contract that’s ridiculous and he needs to go elsewhere. I am sick of the entitlement mentality …

AvsFanVA

He wants UFA money for the full term of the contract because he’s a ‘special’ player. Just ask him or his agent.

pascalp

I don’t think there is anything personal there. Newport is managing the O’Reilly case the way they are managing the PK Subban one.
New management or not the position of the Avs is now the same as it was 2 years ago : we will not pay O’Reilly more than Duchene and we are already recognising his value by accepting to pay a second round choice the same price as the 3rd overall pick of the same draft.
If the Avs had accepted to give him 5 million a year on a long term deal 2 years ago they would already have spared some money and troubles.
What will happen now is O’Reilly will elect for a 2 years deal that will pay him close to 6 million $ and, if he continues to shine the pressure will be on the Avs next summer to either trade him or sign him long term.
With the salary cap projected to progress by 6 to 10 million a year for the next few years and star players starting to get 10 million a year contracts O’Reilly will be the ultimate winner if he continues to shine.
If O’Reilly comes up next year with a 30 goals, 80 points, close to no penalty season next year his value will raise to 7 or 8 million $ a season and his performance will make it hard for the Avs not to try everything to keep him.
The Avs may not like it but signing him to a 5 years / 33 million contract now would be the smartest move.
I don’t believe there is bad blood between the 2 sides, this is just business. I just think the Avs are too stubborn here, making it a tough business.

rockiesghost

The AVS will trade him this summer not after a year or so. so we don’t have to worry about how great he would be. So who do you think he is comparable to in this league. Also, no penalties are great but he is not a physical player, thats why he disappeared in the playoffs and will always be like that.

pascalp

If the Avs had been willing to trade him this summer they would not have filed for arbitration and O’Reilly would already be gone by now.
He is an important piece of the Avs and one of the young core players they want to keep.
2 penalty minutes in 80 games is great, especially when you lead the league in takeaways. He is not a punisher, throwing his body around but he knows how to make perfect use of his stick to break plays.
He disappeared in the playoffs ?!!! 6 points in 7 games at +3…..
The playoff loss was a team failure and O’Reilly did not disappear but you can be sure he will want to do more the next time around.
Roy loves O’Reillly as a player, Sakic as well. Only the business side of things is an issue.

rockiesghost

what did he do in Minnesota? elite player demanding 7 mil a year should have showed up and did something. Also, finesse is good for the regular season, did you see the playoffs at all after the AVS, it’s a physical game and you have to be physical to win. Roy and sakic likes him i am sure, not as much to destroy the chemistry and let a cancer grow in the locker room. you can checkout his stats here, he is a good player not 7mil a year player.http://avalanche.nhl.com/club/player.htm?id=8475158

pascalp

First, I said he will become a 7 million player, he, and the NHL economy is not there yet.
Second, same remark could apply to Duchene or Landeskog or to extend it to other teams :
Did the 9 million Ovechkin qualify his capitals to the playoffs ?
Why couldn’t the 9 million Crosby make the difference ?
This debate is endless and Hockey is still a team sport and Minnesota was a collective failure of a young team discovering the playoffs.
Did Datsyuk have to be physical to be a difference maker throughout his career ? No. Good defensive play does not necessarily have to be a big hit and bruisers are never the highest paid guys in a team, finesse players are.
O’Reilly was the highest scorer and best defensive forward of the Avs and his versatility and hard work are important to them.
Everybody promised a growing cancer in the locker room after the offer sheet story and last year the locker room looked just fine and O’Reilly was not a disturbance but part of the chemistry of his line and of the team.
Stastny is a 7 million player so I have no doubt the more consistent O’Reilly will also be one sooner than later.

rockiesghost

all the names you have mentioned are superstars or on their way, very well know fact in the NHL and they are all creative players. you are comparing Datsyuk to O’Reilly? he is a creative player that no once can take the puck from. As I said O’Reilly is a good player not even close to the class of players you mention, these guys are gifted offensive players with ability to create something from nothing, O’Rielly does not and that’s why he does not deserve 7 mil. And, also on AVS he is a third line center that’s why he is a winger now.

pascalp

The names, salaries and disappointing results I mentioned was a reply to your statement that a 6.5 million player should make the difference in the playoffs. Hockey is still a team sport and many more higher paid or considered players were not enough to make a difference for their team.
I am comparing O’Reilly to Datsyuk in their defensive game, both are finesse defensive forwards that don’t need a big hit to brake a play.
O’Reilly was close to 30 goals (leading the Avs), led the league in takeaways for the second time in his young career and won the Lady Bing last season. Does it make him a star in the making in the NHL ? Yes. Does it make him a player worth 7 million ? Yes, especially considering Stastny got those millions. Are there team on the market that would pay this money for him ? Yes.
O’Reilly was a third line center, then a second line center and now a winger because he has the versatility and the intelligence to play all those roles.
He has not been given enough credit for his play, his work ethic and his influence on the team success that he deserves.
Does it means that he is right, along with his agent to be so greedy and egoistic with the Avs ? No, not at all.
He should see the big picture and the interest he would have to do some efforts to continue to be an important piece to what could become another dominant Avs team.
O’Reilly cannot claim he wants to be a winner and create the kind of contract blocking that will only lead him to be sent to some rebuilding team where he will never get close to a Stanley cup victory.

javadoody

Everyone seems to think he’s going to take a 2 yr contract. Newport would prefer one, I’m sure, then go FA. Why hang out here for 2? Why risk injury if you are posturing for a big contract and you know you’re not going to stay here?
Help me on this, doesn’t ROR get up to 24 hrs before arbitration to let everyone know if he wants 1 or 2? Then the arbitrator decides, right? It’s his choice as to length not the Avs. ????

Chris DeMott

Not me — I think he will take the one year deal. I think that’ s what he meant when he said “we’ll just take this year by year” at the awards banquet. And yes, I think he does have to declare before the Arbitrator awards the amount.

bob_w

If he takes only one year won’t he still be an RFA? If so the Avs should go the arbitration route again. Dater says in the article that ROR must declare 1 or 2 before the arbitration. So he decides not the arbitrator.

Jimbotronn

A player can only be taken to arbitration once, while the player can take the team to arbitration as many times as he likes. Whatever the arbitrator decides for this season will be the qualifying offer amount for the next season, the Avs will have no way to lower that amount.

bob_w

OK. I didn’t know that when I posted but read it afterwards.

chantalrouleau

I still believe Ryan O’Reilly is an extremely special player, one of a kind. This mess is making me mad. One way or the other, the Avalanche has got to have the same value (might be a scorer of 30+ goal or an O’Reilly type of player) whatever happens.

Jimbotronn

I have always liked him, but guess I’m just not seeing him as anything particularly special, and he’s certainly not “one of a kind.” Patrice Bergeron has been producing the way ROR did last year for eight or nine years now. Toews is another guy who’s hit O’Reilly’s peak year production for pretty much six or seven years in a row. Pavel Datsuyk is every bit as good a two-way player as O’Reilly, with immensely more offensive chops. Those are “special” players. O’Reilly has nothing on players like that, IMO, and I don’t understand why he thinks he’s done anywhere near enough to be placed in that category.

Todd Anderson

It would be great if the Avs could sign O’Reilly on a long term deal at about $6 million per season.

Otherwise, just get a 2 year deal done a market value, and then dump O’Reilly in a trade. Then focus on keeping MacKinnon.

Impact3697

Lots of people on here are saying that O’Reiily deserves his open market value, and that he shouldn’t be expected to take the discount that Duchene did..
That is a crock. A player should not expect to get full open market value, when he is restricted and his rights are owned by one team. If O’Reilly is expecting a Stastny type of deal, here, then he might as well start packing his bags. The Avs are 100% right to not give in to those types of demands
As far as Duchene’s “discount contract” goes, people should remember that he was coming off of a strike shortened season, and a bad year the year before. He has never been a PPG player yet, and he is not Jonathan Toews yet either. This was a very fair contract when he signed it
O’Reilly should try to understand that most players don’t have their big pay day until they get closer to UFA, unless they are truly special, i.e. Crosby, Malkin, Ovechkin, etc..
O’Reilly is a very good all around hockey player, but he’s got a long way to go before he is worth $6.5-7 mil a year long term.
I feel like O’Reilly should fit between Duchene and Lando. The front office obviously agrees

Brad

I’ve seen some comments here and on other sites about how Sakic is a hypocrite since he himself signed an offer sheet and asked for more money. And while Sakic did take the offer sheet and asked for more, he was a Conn Smythe, and Stanley Cup winner, 50 goal scorer, hailed as a future hall of famer, and arguably top three player in the league when he signed his offer sheet from NY. O’Reilly is a good player but it could be argued that he isn’t even a top three player on this team with Duchene, MacKinnon, and Landeskog.

And if O’Reilly was as good as he is being labeled by his agent, why is his value higher now than it ever will be as Dater claims? If he will continue to get better and improve, then his value will increase and there is no need for the Avs to either overpay for him now, or trade him to get the best return right now.

Pollardinio

I wonder why we haven’t received a letter from O’Reilly’s daddy yet? I miss laughing and feeling sorry for O’Reilly reading those! :)

aaronsanchez

Once again that absurd Giguere/Stastny debacle is haunting the Avs. Stastny was well overpaid for five seasons. He played like a $5M player in year five. O’Reilly had a better statistical season and is a better player overall. Then the Blues again overpaid Stastny and O’Reilly wants Stastny money.

Need to trade O’Reilly now.for Kane for someone. He’s done with Colorado for some odd reason!

Terry Frei graduated from Wheat Ridge High School in the Denver area and has degrees in history and journalism from the University of Colorado-Boulder. He worked for the Rocky Mountain News while attending CU and joined the Post staff after graduation. He has also worked at the Oregonian in Portland, Ore., and The Sporting News. His seventh book, March 1939: Before the Madness, was issued in February 2014.

Chambers covers college and professional hockey for The Denver Post. He has written for the Post since 1994, after dumping his first 9-to-5 office job a couple years out of college. He primarily follows the University of Denver hockey team and helps cover the Avalanche.