I would have to be living in a cave somewhere 🙂 not to be aware of the reasons why so many people think these three phenomena constitute crises. Indeed, I discuss all three of these challenges in a part of my Futurology writing that you may have missed.

By contrast, (an admittedly brief) inspection of your site yields no evidence that you are aware of the (by far less well-known) arguments that these are not crises. The most notable work in this field of thought is Julian Simon’s Ultimate Resource, but searching your site for his name and book yields only a single mention (in a broken-link footnote of a piece about the Singularity). If you want to remain an eco-doomsayer, I’d heavily advise you not to read Simon’s book. 🙂 It’s hard to take seriously any doomsaying presentation that doesn’t address Simon’s analysis. If you know of any specific counter-arguments to Simon’s work, I’d be very interested in a reference.

TW-> I am aware of the work of Julian Simon and have read parts of his book Ultimate Resource. (Thanks, I fixed the broken link.) While I would like to believe his premise, my careful reading and review of numerous equally qualified scientists makes him seem naive. I too believe in the unlimited nature of “knowing”, what I do not believe in is the unlimited nature of water, air, soil and fossil fuel on a finite planet.

That said, I don’t view myself as an eco-doomsayer. I don’t see myself as an eco-pessimist or an eco-optimist. I strive to be an eco-realist. As a practicing physician, I am called upon every day to prognosticate. My patients want to know what the future holds for them. I spend a great deal of time explaining that the future will be determined by the choices they make. If they eat sensibly, exercise regularly, avoid tobacco and consume alcohol in moderation, they will have a much better future than if they do the opposite. I think the same is true for humanity’s future. If we humans work together, stop wasting the fossil fuels, control our human population, protect nature and biodiversity, we will have a better future than if we do the opposite.

I still found that your article made interesting reading, and the scope of your thinking is to be much admired. I have taken the liberty of reposted it at my website Future Positivewith credit and links to your websites.

Best wishes,

Timothy Wilken, MD

I appreciate your inclusion of it on your impressive site; feel free to also include the rest of my writing on Futurology:

TW-> Thank you Brian for the kind words and the permission to repost your papers. As I said in the first note, I much admire the scope of your thinking, and am in agreement with much of what you say. I commend you for working so hard to increase human understanding.

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