Week 3 Pro Selections

SAN FRANCISCO AT CINCINNATI

Rushing

Passing

Points

TO’s

ST

SAN FRANCISCO

80

170

22

2.3

#6

CINCINNATI

92

265

24

2.3

#16

Harbaugh has had the benefit of 2 home games to ease his team into his new schemes. CIN isn’t expected to have much of a crowd edge as Dalton’s home opener will be their 5th straight non-sellout. CIN was in a good spot LW vs a DEN team off a MNF loss that was severely injury depleted. The Bengals didn’t get off to a good start getting outFD 13-4 and outgained 169-93 in the 1H. CIN adjusted at halftime as Dalton put up 332 yds (66%) with 2 TD’s in a losing effort. SF failed to take advantage of an injury depleted DAL defense travelling on the 2nd straight week losing in OT. SF was outgained 472-206 at home and Smith has failed to stretch the field at this point (152 ypg 71% 2-1) and Gore has been ineffective with 106 yds total (2.5) as SEA and DAL stacked the line. CIN will only get better as the year goes on and I’ll call for them by 3 in their home debut.

PHIL’S FORECAST: CINCINNATI 17 SAN FRANCISCO 14

NEW ENGLAND AT BUFFALO

Rushing

Passing

Points

TO’s

ST

NEW ENGLAND

127

353

39

1.2

#28

BUFFALO

130

253

23

2.8

#21

The Patriots have dominated the Bills winning 15 straight with a 29-12 avg score. In his L7 starts vs BUF, Brady has avg’d 252 ypg (70%) with a 20-2 ratio. Fitzpatrick has avg’d 225 ypg (61%) with a 3-6 ratio vs NE with the Bills. BUF was in a prime situation LW getting OAK off MNF and coming cross country but found itself down 21-3 at the half. This is a different BUF team though and they scored TD’s on all five 2H drives. BUF logged a 326-247 yd edge securing the win by beating OAK at their own game with 164 yds rushing (11.7) in the 2H. NE has logged back to back 500 yds offense vs 2010’s #6 and #1 defenses. NE has converted an astounding 15 of 24 FD’s to start the season with Brady having a 10.7 ypa and a 7-1 ratio. While the Bills are better they’ve had very favorable matchups so far and I’ll call for the road team by 10 as I want to see how BUF fares vs a truly elite team.

PHIL’S FORECAST: NEW ENGLAND 31 BUFFALO 21

HOUSTON AT NEW ORLEANS

Rushing

Passing

Points

TO’s

ST

HOUSTON

95

230

25

2.0

#15

NEW ORLEANS

98

303

34

2.1

#13

HOU has gotten off to a fast start vs both a Colts team that is a husk of itself without Manning and a Dolphins team adjusting to a new OC with a poor run game. NO in contrast has played the 2 teams from LY’s NFC Championship game outgaining GB 477-399 and dominating CHI in the 2H holding them to 80 yards. NO’s blitz happy D had 6 sks, 7 tfl and 10 QB hits LW and should get DE Smith (5.5 sks LY) back from susp and CB Porter back from a pre-ssn inj. LW HOU’s def did hold MIA QB Henne to 170 yds (40%, 1-1) a week after he put up 416 yds on NE but this week will be a different story vs Brees who is avg 333 ypg (67%) with a 6-0 ratio.

PHIL’S FORECAST: NEW ORLEANS 34 HOUSTON 20

NY GIANTS AT PHILADELPHIA

Rushing

Passing

Points

TO’s

ST

NY GIANTS

108

163

23

3.6

#29

PHILADELPHIA

123

260

33

2.5

#23

The Eagles have won 6 straight including playoffs with a 32-21 avg score. PHI changed the NFC landscape by scoring 28 pts in the last 7:28 of LY’s 2nd meeting. PHI had a 220-65 yd edge and added a back breaking 65 yd PR to win the game on the final play. A much healthier Giants defense held Vick to 113 yds (61%) with a 1-1 ratio for 3.5 Qtrs until they imploded. Both teams are off primetime games with PHI facing ATL on SNF and the Giants coming off the Rams on MNF. PHI still has their speed edge but they can be beaten by a power rush attack as STL showed before Jackson got hurt. I’ll call for the home team by 7.

PHIL’S FORECAST: PHILADELPHIA 24 NY GIANTS 17

MIAMI AT CLEVELAND

Rushing

Passing

Points

TO’s

ST

MIAMI

122

210

22

1.8

#24

CLEVELAND

104

240

20

2.4

#17

CLE beat MIA 13-10 LY thanks to 3 TO’s by the Dolphins which setup a pair of FG’s. Henne was w/o WR Marshall (hamstring) and #2 WR Hartline (hand) left in the 2H. MIA held Hillis to 57 yds (3.2) rushing but squandered 10-4 FD and 160-79 yd edges in the 1H. LW CLE was able to hang on to a 4Q lead vs IND after blowing four 4Q leads LY and a 17-13 lead vs CIN in the opener. Hillis ran for 94 yds (3.5) incl a key score just before the half that put CLE up for good. QB McCoy spread the ball around to 8 diff rec’s while throwing for 211 yds (69%, 1-0). The Dolphins are now 0-2 for the fifth time in the past six yrs after allowing a franchise-worst 622 yds to NE in the opener then were beaten deep repeatedly by HOU LW. QB Henne threw for a career-high 416 yards in the opener but LW threw for just 170 (40%, 1-1). The Dolphins ST’s play continues to be an Achilles heel as they had a 22 yd FG blk’d and missed a 34-yarder while also committing two key TO’s. The Browns are well aware of MIA OC Daboll’s weak spots (was CLE’s OC LY) and should be able to take advantage of a disappointing MIA D.

PHIL’S FORECAST: CLEVELAND 23 MIAMI 20

DENVER AT TENNESSEE

Rushing

Passing

Points

TO’s

ST

DENVER

75

215

19

2.6

#7

TENNESSEE

137

260

27

0.8

#27

DEN beat TEN 26-20 LY thanks to an Orton TD with 93 sec left. DEN scored on 6 of 7 trips inside the TEN 20, held RB Johnson to 53 yds rushing (2.8) while Orton put up 308 yds (70%) with a 2-1 ratio. DEN went into the CIN game very beat up with 6 starters (RB Moreno, WR Lloyd, DE Dumervil, DT Thomas, LB Williams and CB Bailey) sitting out but pulled out a 24-22 win over CIN. McGahee ran for 101 (3.6) while Orton was efficient with 195 yds (60%, 2-0) but the Broncos lost two more players to injury. With the Ravens focused on stopping TEN RB Johnson (53, 2.2), QB Hasselbeck threw for 358 yards (71% 1-1) and the Titans got a surprising 26-13 win over BAL LW. The Titans new look D was aggressive repeatedly hitting Flacco while sacking him 3x and forcing 3 TO’s. TEN had a 35:52-24:08 TOP edge while outgaining BAL 432-229. With the Broncos injury concerns and TEN riding high from LW, I’ll call for the HT to get the win.

PHIL’S FORECAST: TENNESSEE 23 DENVER 20

DETROIT AT MINNESOTA

Rushing

Passing

Points

TO’s

ST

DETROIT

89

255

30

1.9

#19

MINNESOTA

138

205

20

2.6

#20

DET broke a 6 game losing streak by beating MIN 20-13 to close out 2010. Both teams were starting backups and DET finished with a 357-214 yd edge holding MIN to 1 drive over 30 yds in its 1st 7 drives. A week after throwing for 39 yds (47%) with a 1-1 ratio, McNabb had 75 yds (54%) in the 2H as the Vikings blew a 17-0 1H lead. Peterson had 83 yds (5.5) in the 1H but was held to 37 yds (3.7) afterwards. DET destroyed KC LW 48-3 holding the Chiefs to 5 FD and 79 yds in the 2H. Stafford is playing like his #1 DC pedigree with an 8.3 ypa and 7-2 ratio and has yet to be sacked. While its very early it is notable that DET has only allowed 5.8 ypa and a 1-4 ratio in its 1st 2 games. MIN is desperate for a win after a poor Wk 1 showing and blowing LW’s game with 35 sec left and get a big win here.

PHIL’S FORECAST: MINNESOTA 27 DETROIT 24

JACKSONVILLE AT CAROLINA

Rushing

Passing

Points

TO’s

ST

JACKSONVILLE

140

180

18

2.0

#5

CAROLINA

104

280

25

3.2

#31

CAR comes into this game with tons of confidence due to the surprising play of Newton who got a lot of work in prior to training camp with former CAR QB Weinke. In his 2 starts he’s posted 854 yds (63%) with a 3-4 ratio with 14 pass plays of 20+ yds vs 30 all of LY for CAR. While still very raw, Newton is doing all the right things like hot read adjustments on blitzes and CAR had a 214-126 yd edge over GB LW at the half. Unlike Clausen LY, Newton has the backing of key veterans like WR Smith (14 rec 23.9) adding to his confidence. While Garrard was an avg NFL QB, he was one of the leaders in the lockerroom. McCown barely got the Jags past TEN in Wk 1 and the Jets shut him down LW (59 yds, 32%, 0-4). JAX was outgained 173-97 at the half and simply doesn’t have a game changer outside of Jones-Drew (88 yds 4.9) offensively. I’ll go with the more confident and surprisingly explosive home team here even though Jones-Drew will get his yards vs 2 rookie DT’s.

PHIL’S FORECAST: CAROLINA 20 JACKSONVILLE 13

KANSAS CITY AT SAN DIEGO

Rushing

Passing

Points

TO’s

ST

KANSAS CITY

103

158

14

2.8

#25

SAN DIEGO

101

365

36

2.0

#18

SD is 6-1 and has avg’d a 162 ypg edge over KC in that span and have circled this meeting since losing the AFC West title LY. In the L4 games since Charlie Weis announced his departure KC is 0-4, has been outscored 150-27 with Cassel earning 109 ypg (52%) with a 1-9 ratio. Over the L3W the Chiefs have lost key players to LY’s 10-6 season losing TE Moeaki (578 yds 12.5) to a torn ACL in pre-4, SS Berry (#2 tklr #1 ints) to a torn ACL in Wk 1 and RB Charles (#2 NFL rush yds) to a torn ACL LW. SD clobbered MIN statistically 407-187 in Wk 1 holding them to 26 yds in the 2H. They lost to NE on the road and now get a wounded defending AFC West Champ at home. SD will be very focused here and brings the hammer vs their division rival.

PHIL’S FORECAST: SAN DIEGO 38 KANSAS CITY 10

NY JETS AT OAKLAND

Rushing

Passing

Points

TO’s

ST

NY JETS

115

215

30

1.8

#4

OAKLAND

123

210

23

3.6

#3

This is the 5th meeting in 7Y with the Jets winning 3 of 4. OAK had a 21-3 halftime lead without the bulk of their receiving unit with TE Boss, WR’s Heyward-Bey, Ford and Murphy sidelined. OAK gave up 5 straight TD drives in the 2H as the fatigue of playing on MNF and travelling hit them. Unlike previous Raider teams they stayed in the fight losing with 18 sec left. Campbell was crisp with 323 yds (70%) 2-1 as they converted 8 of 12 3rd Dns. The Jets made the most of being home for the 2nd straight week getting an inexperienced JAX QB with no receiving game to work with. The Jets defense came up big with a safety and 4 ints which were turned into 13 pts. While the offense got short fields to work with the Jets only had 101 yds rushing (3.2) with 29 (9.7) by Sanchez. Ctr Mangold (ankle sprain) is likely to miss and that would be huge vs an underrated OAK DL. I think the Raiders could pull the upset here.

PHIL’S FORECAST: OAKLAND 20 NY JETS 17

BALTIMORE AT ST LOUIS

Rushing

Passing

Points

TO’s

ST

BALTIMORE

113

200

23

2.3

#9

ST LOUIS

103

238

18

2.5

#14

STL is off their 1st MNF since Dec 2006 vs the Giants. No team looked worse from Wk 1 to Wk 2 as the Ravens were beaten at their own game by the Titans. Rice was held to 43 yds (3.3) rushing, Flacco had 197 yds (47%) with a 1-2 ratio (6.2 ypa) and the defense couldn’t get off the field. BAL gave up 358 yds (71%) with 1-1 to Hasselbeck and failed to generate any serious pressure (just 2 QBH). The Rams took their lumps vs PHI after RB Jackson (quad) left. They have a good defensive front 7 that can bring pressure without blitzing. There are now 2 games of film on BAL’s cut blocking scheme and the Rams will be able to counter now. BAL is an overvalued team that will be more focused but the loss of 1st RD DC Smith and nickel CB Carr vs PIT will still carry over here. OC McDaniels has faced BAL’s defense the L2Y in losing efforts but has a better OL to work with and I’ll take the home team.

PHIL’S FORECAST: ST LOUIS 24 BALTIMORE 17

ATLANTA AT TAMPA BAY

Rushing

Passing

Points

TO’s

ST

ATLANTA

118

235

27

1.7

#14

TAMPA BAY

98

263

25

2.0

#1

ATL has won 5 straight. They take a big step down vs TB’s defense after facing 2 veteran laden playoff level units vs CHI and PHI. So far TY TB’s DL has logged 2 sks and 2 QBH’s vs 2 avg OL’s. In the 1H vs DET TB had 7 FD and 108 yds and in the 1H vs MIN they had 3 FD and 62 yds. Down 17-0 at the half, the Bucs took over the 2H with 16-8 FD and 273-114 yd edges scoring on 4 of 5 drives. Not counting the final play of the game, TB only allowed 3 plays of 10 or more yds in the 2H. ATL put up good yards (386) vs CHI but they couldn’t put points on the board. They now travel vs an amped up div foe after a big primetime home game vs their former QB.

PHIL’S FORECAST: TAMPA BAY 24 ATLANTA 21

ARIZONA AT SEATTLE

Rushing

Passing

Points

TO’s

ST

ARIZONA

85

223

24

1.3

#5

SEATTLE

102

258

20

2.9

#16

SEA gets the situational edge at home with ARZ on the road again after coming back from their game vs WAS. SEA has fielded one of the youngest OL’s since the 1995 Panthers the L2W and it’s shown as they’ve allowed 10 sks (16 QBH) on 66 pass att’s. SEA has tallied 64 (2.9) and 31 (2.4) yds rushing. While its very early, Kolb (280 ypg 61% 4-1) and Wells (92 5.7) have been what the Cardinals needed going into the season. ARZ’s problem is the defense as they have 2 young starting CB’s and 2 old safeties who lack speed (8.9 ypa!!). SEA QB Jackson has been lukewarm at best so far TY but he gets a break after facing SF who got to gameplan for months for the opener and PIT who blew them out of the water LW. With the ARZ team travelling again and I’ll take the Seahawks here.

PHIL’S FORECAST: SEATTLE 27 ARIZONA 23

GREEN BAY AT CHICAGO

Rushing

Passing

Points

TO’s

ST

GREEN BAY

64

248

27

2.4

#30

CHICAGO

72

273

22

2.0

#2

CHI upset GB 20-17 in the 1st meeting LY thanks to 18 penalties by the Packers. In the 2nd meeting GB won 10-3 despite CHI playing its starters most of the game to try to keep GB out of the playoffs. In the NFC Championship game, GB won 21-14 as Cutler (knee) was KO’d. GB HC McCarthy admitted prior to LW’s game that the Packers did zero gameplanning for CAR in the offseason as they had no idea what to expect schematically. They based everything off the ARZ game and found themselves looking at a 13-0 deficit at the half. In the 2H they outscored CAR 30-14 with a 293-261 yd edge (83 on CAR final drive). CHI was kept off balance all day by NO’s pass rush giving up 6 sks and 10 QBH’s and only converting 2 of 12 on 3rd Dns. Already w/o SS Harris, they lost FS Wright who was playing SS LW and Brees capitalized with #3 safety Meriweather still learning the system. GB is much healthier and more dangerous than the team that beat CHI in LY’s title game and do so again here.