2018: “Stable Disruption” In Aviation Expected

EVERGREEN, CO, January 05, 2018 /24-7PressRelease/ — Boyd Group International has now issued its 2018 Aviation Trend Outlook, which forecasts key expected shifts in the industry.

Stable Disruption. Overall, the report indicates that while there are enormous global changes in progress, the fundamentals of the industry are solid – strong traffic growth expected, but based on rational capacity discipline. New-mission capable airline fleets will affect major airline route strategies, widening access particularly for mid-size US airports.

ULCCs – Revenues, Not Brand Loyalty. Furthermore, the growth of ultra-low cost carriers (ULCCs), which the report describes as the “parallel airline universe” will directly and indirectly spike traffic in several regions of the US.

The unique characteristic of this model is that it is “revenue-anchored” to the markets it operates, which means routes will be added and deleted as situations change in regard to where their airliners can generate the most return. The result is that there will be strong traffic spikes and traffic declines in markets where these carriers choose to operate.

Expanding US Heartland International Access. As first predicted by BGI five years ago, in 2018 more EU carriers will add nonstops to large non-connecting-hub US airports. “Points such as St. Louis, Memphis, Columbus, San Antonio, Cincinnati/Northern Kentucky, among others, are in the crosshairs. The value they offer in terms of feed through key EU airline connecting hubs is enormous,” noted Michael J. Boyd, president of BGI.

China: The Major Aviation Story In 2018. One of the more aggressive predictions is that China will move in 2018 to break into the global airliner industry, most likely via the path of acquiring partial or even full control of Brazil’s Embraer or Canada’s Bombardier.

“Relying on their current indigenous airliner programs alone to gain a global position is simply is too long and too risky a path for China,” Boyd said. “The only real option is to acquire operating interest in one of these companies, both of which have a business footprint which will open the global door to Chinese airliner platforms.”

More Chinese Aviation Presence In The US. “Such an event will spike corollary Chinese investment in the aerospace industry, particularly in the US,” Boyd noted. “There’s a Chinese invasion coming to points across America – and they are armed with funding and technology. Communities that plan now to prepare will gain the advantage in attracting this investment.”

US Air Traffic Control & Airport Security: Expect No Improvements. Clouds on the US aviation horizon: No fundamental progress is expected in the area of the air traffic control system, regardless of “reform” or not. US aviation security still has serious shortfalls, as demonstrated by the lack of any recovery or mitigation plans during recent events at Atlanta and Ft. Lauderdale.

The report includes the following trends/predictions to watch in 2018:

– US Enplanement Forecast: 3.8%+ Growth.
– Wild Card: New Tax System May Spike Air Demand In 3Q
– New Reality: Traditional Aviation Forecasting Now Obsolete
– Intra-Regional Air Service: Obsolete
– Re-fleeting: Mostly Positive For Air Transportation System
– 2018: Huge Impacts From The Parallel Airline Universe
– Prediction: China In The Market For Embraer/Bombardier
– China: An Increasing Factor In US Aviation Planning
– Accelerating Trend: EU Carrier Invasion of US Heartland
– Pilot Shortage: Worse Than The Term Implies
– Cuba Air Service – The Hot Prospects Turn To Red Ink
– 2018: Regionalization of Air Access Continues
– Aviation Security Will Continue To Be At Risk
– Expected In 2018: Zero Progress on ATC

International Aviation Forecast Summit. The forecast approaches in the 2018 Aviation Trend Outlook – hard futurist research and insight that go well beyond “ambient thinking” – are just a taste of what is delivered at the annual Boyd Group International Aviation Forecast Summit. Clear your calendar and join industry leaders in Denver August 19-21, 2018. For more information, log on to www.AviationForecastSummit.com

Boyd Group International is a multi-dimensional aviation consulting, research and forecast firm. Founded in 1984, the company is the leader in aviation trend, traffic and fleet forecasting. BGI works with clients across the US and globally, including strong focus on China-US aviation issues. Offices are in Evergreen, Colorado, just west of Denver. (303) 674-2000, [email protected]

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