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NOBODY in the besieged Iemma Government should be surprised that
white students are fleeing state schools, or that towns like Moree,
Dubbo and Tamworth are being overwhelmed by the social demands of
dispossessed, impoverished Aboriginal communities.

The Herald reported yesterday that a secret report by
high school principals revealed that white students were fleeing
public schools, leaving behind those of Aboriginal and Middle
Eastern origin. The survey raises serious concerns about "white
flight" undermining the public education system and threatening
social cohesion.

The indigenous population is growing at three times the national
average, and governments are failing to keep up with the increasing
"ghettoisation" of rural communities as services fail to keep pace
with demands for better housing, health care, education and
policing.

The problem appears to be so immense that policymakers seem
utterly unprepared for the impact of the massive demographic
change. And nowhere are the pressures being felt more than in
schools, where record numbers of Aborigines are enrolling.

The crisis has been well documented by two of the nation's most
experienced policymakers and researchers, Michael Dillon and Neil
Westbury, in their recently released landmark book Beyond
Humbug. It should be compulsory reading for every member of the
Iemma cabinet.

They discovered that the influx of Aborigines into rural towns
has been matched by an exodus of non-indigenous Australians who
have moved out, taking skills, wealth and in some cases businesses
with them.

In Broken Hill the non-indigenous population dropped 5.9 per
cent. In South Australia's Port Augusta the decline was 6.8 per
cent.

On the growth of the Aboriginal population, Westbury told the
Herald: "It is a bedrock issue, without doubt one of the
biggest issues facing government. For too long governments have
adopted a one-size-fits-all approach which fails to account for
individual community needs.

We have towns doubling in size every generation, but they are
still being funded like communities."

Westbury worked with the former Northern Territory chief
minister, Clare Martin, before disagreement over policy led to a
falling out.

Dillon, an academic and former administrator, is senior policy
adviser to the Minister for Indigenous Affairs, Jenny Macklin.
Between them Westbury and Dillon have decades of experience in
administration and policymaking.

Westbury said housing and education presented the most profound
challenges, and if swift action was not taken levels of dysfunction
would only get worse. He said the present level of funding would be
inadequate for what lay ahead.

He said the fast-growing indigenous population was presenting
governments with a crisis far larger than that identified by the
Howard government's emergency intervention, which was a response to
endemic levels of abuse in Northern Territory remote
communities.

Howard's much-resisted intervention, which has cost more than $1
billion, took little or no account of social problems arising from
the profound demographic change.

In five years to 2006 indigenous numbers have jumped 11 per
cent, according to Bureau of Statistics data. The 2007 census put
NSW's indigenous population at 138,000 and growing, far more than
any other state or territory. Using the bureau's data, Dillon and
Westbury note that the proportion of the indigenous population
living in urban centres has risen from 44 per cent in 1971 to 74
per cent in 2001.

At least 30 per cent of indigenous Australians now live in
cities. They have identified a number of economic hot spots around
the nation, many of them in NSW.

Indigenous people are over-represented in the poorest urban
neighbourhoods, including Macquarie Fields, Waterloo and
Campbelltown, where unemployment rates are three or four times the
national average.

In Broken Hill, Dubbo, Orange and Tamworth indigenous numbers
have jumped by between 50 per cent, in the case of Broken Hill, and
nearly 30 per cent in Dubbo. Part of this growth is due to urban
drift, and part because of the exploding indigenous birthrate.

What is striking about these figures, according to Dillon and
Westbury, is the very young age of the indigenous populations
compared to the very old age composition of the Australian
population.

"As the Australian population is increasingly concerned with the
effects and implications of ageing and funding retirement,
indigenous Australians remain firmly focused on the issues of
raising families, education, house and jobs," they write.

Westbury believes little planning has taken place.

"There is a compelling case for the injection of greater policy
realism and urgency in addressing the demographic underpinning of
indigenous disadvantage."

Failure to do this would have a big impact on social cohesion,
which could already be seen in the town camps of Alice Springs,
Dubbo and Wadeye, where the population is expected to double in 10
years. That will mean an extra 160 houses for that community
alone.

Westbury warns that if governments do not start planning the
social cost to the indigenous population and the community as a
whole will be incalculable.

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