With Winter more than half over, an update on El Nino might actually help us see if Winter will drag on…or end early (as Punxatauney Phil predicted a few weeks ago). La Nina tends to help us see more snow, and El Nino is more complicated…it creates a second storm track, which means we ca get into both from time to time (more snow), or get stuck in between (meaning much less snow). Here’s an interesting article on the topic: http://summitcountyvoice.com/2013/02/09/new-study-helps-pinpoint-el-nino-impacts/

Think of the weather pattern in all of Eastern Canada as being like a hub cap, with the center roughly near Hudson Bay. Around that center, little spokes develop and rotate around it to the south and then east, and are bringing us both a little snow from themselves as well as shaking up the atmosphere over the Lake (Ontario), so that tacks on a little more each time. That will happen tonight through half of Wednesday, and again Thursday night through all of Friday. So, it comes down to timing, for us…and it comes down to how intense will each “spoke” be when it arrives and therefore, how much snow from the “spoke” and how much more from the Lake.

In the first case, I expect 1-3″. In Thu nite/Friday’s case, I suspect a little more. A good guesstimate right now might be like 3-6″, but it’s hard to say. So let’s just say, “A little more”. A warm up is still coming by the weekend.