Sunday, December 02, 2007

Chavez Hasta Siempre

Chavez wins his referendum, if he doesn't mind saying so himself. Reuters reports:

CARACAS (Reuters) - Three cabinet ministers on Sunday said Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez won a referendum on whether he can run indefinitely for reelection.

The ministers, who asked not to be named, cited preliminary polling and electoral data.

Leftist Chavez is seeking approval in the referendum for a raft of constitutional changes to increase presidential powers, advance his self-styled revolution and consolidate a socialist state for the OPEC nation.

The nice thing about the Internet is that it never forgets. And when the Venezuelans are starving, eating their pets, fleeing in large numbers with whats left of their belongings we should send them to you.

"Exit polls and early counts by party members showed the race tightening with the anti-U.S. leader ahead by as little as four percentage points, senior government officials said. Three ministers who asked not to be named earlier said the margin was between six and eight points."

There is nothing anyone should take seriously in this article. What can be taken seriously is CNE hasn't posted any official results yet. If Chavez had a 4%+ lead it's likely we'd have an announcement by now.

Pol Pot maybe... I don't think that Chavez is all that concerned with ideological purity. He'd like to get his hands on the Andean cocaine revenues and usurp, transplant, and grow the Cuban internal and external security apparatus. Then he'd like to follow in the footsteps of his hero, Simon Bolivar, and rule a big chunk of Latin America.

In other words, I don't see Hugo as an insular, autarkic murderer like Pol Pot or Kim Il Sung. Maybe more of an expansionist, imperialist murderer like Hitler or Mussolini.

So we are about to test the proposition that what Venezuela suffers from is a shortage of Socialism. The country has had left leaning governments for forty years so I doubt socialism is what it lacks.

When Chavez was giving out heating oil in the Bronx or to Castro or wherever, I'd tell my left friends I did not object. "Hey, it's Hugo's oil. If he wants to give it away, let him." So now I say, hey, it's his country. Let him do what he wants with it.

In places where elections can still be held, when a strongman doesn't win by a large margin he has probably lost. If Chavez declares he has won by a hair and is faced with a large amount of dissent he may need Jimmy Carter to pull his chestnuts out of the fire.

And even if the International monitors believe the election is cooked they might justify declaring for Chavez on the grounds that it will "prevent unrest", "engage a man who is now clearly in charge", or that perennial favorite "moderate his behavior" or any of standard weasely words that now go by the description of "conciliation".

If the moral pillars of the International Community "urge us to accept" Chavez's victory while calling for "healing and reconciliation" that will be the code word for the straighforward "Chavez cheated but now we hope he won't jail all his opponents."

Awaited the results from the "election commission" at this blog - http://caracaschronicles.blogspot.com/ which seems to have close relations with leaders in the No camp. They believe that they won by a more sizable margin, like 6-10%, but that Chavez would not publicly accept that large a defeat. Apparently, they have a brand new $300 million electronic voting system that is fully auditable, which I must say I am surprised that Chavez permitted it. Perhaps that speaks to his grandiosity. Anyway, it was fun sharing their joy with them in real time in the blog's comment section as we watched the result via being announce via Globovision. Amazing how technology has shrunk the world in many ways. You couldn't even have done this in the US 10 years ago, now we witness it in a semi-autocratic state setting of the precipice of totalitarianism. As my Spanish friends say, que rico!

Chavez's term ends in 2012. He'll try again. Maybe in another manner. The way these things go, as in the EU Constitutional Referendum is that all rejections are temporary, but "yes" once achieved is sacred and forever.

There is no electoral result so permanent among progressives as the choice never to choose again.

Yes, Wretchard, he supposedly spoke about another "reform" effort during his rambling hour long losers speech tonight. [I'm surprised they don't shitcan him just to be rid of his orations.] This vote, however, is the first electoral defeat he has suffered, and speaks to a fairly high level of frustration with his focus on only the bottom rungs of the socio-economic ladder. To defeat him, or his appointed successor, however, will require the "opposition" to organize itself in an unheralded manner. See this former Venezolano's blog for a cogent analysis of what's required to reclaim Venzuela from Chavez. It's truly a shame that this physically beautiful, resource rich country has its destiny tied to this man of mediocre means and megalomaniac ambitions. Such seems to be the fate of all oil-producing countries.

cubanbob makes a great point. Venezuela's reprieve is only temporary. Chavez remains in power and now has access to an "enemies list" of everyone who voted against him. He can hold another phony vote next year and each year following and only has to declare that he won in the election just before he is required to step down.

The future of Venezuela remains written in Zimbabwe's unhappy recent past.

The voters will indeed have another opportunity to enslave themselves, but before then, Chavez needs to, among other things, work on his police. He has the luck of the Devil, though, no question -- he survived the coup of 2002, he'll (unfortunately) survive this too.