Used to be the Yankees led the industry in wins, or home runs, or, for sure, payroll.

Now? Well, the Yankees probably pace Major League Baseball in variance. Can you think of another 2015 team with a bigger disparity between its best-case scenario and its worst-case scenario? No team arguably employs more high-ceiling, low-floor players than these guys.

That range between baseball heaven and baseball hell is apparent most of all in the club’s starting rotation, which at the outset features a quartet of feast-to-famine possibilities plus Chris Capuano, whose output scope goes more like “mildly satisfied” to famine, plus potential reinforcements internal and external.

Depending on your preferred measure of Wins Above Replacement, the most valuable starting pitcher of the Yankees’ 2014 season was either Masahiro Tanaka (3.3 WAR, as per Baseball-Reference.com’s calculations) or Hiroki Kuroda (3.5 WAR, as per FanGraphs). Tanaka of course shows up for his sophomore season with a tear in his UCL, while Kuroda of course returned to the Hiroshima Toyo Carp for what will likely be his final professional campaign.

Trying to guess the 2015 Yankees’ best starting pitcher is a fool’s errand. Which means you’ve come to the right place. With pitchers and catchers set to report to camp this week, let’s handicap, from most likely to least likely, who will wind up as the Yankees’ ace.

1. Masahiro Tanaka

Never again in his major-league career will Tanaka take the mound and project a vibe of indomitability to opponents and reassurance to fans. That superpower went away last July with his diagnosis, and if he eventually succumbs to Tommy John surgery — a likely eventuality — we know there are no guarantees post-op.

Yet St. Louis’ Adam Wainwright showed that one can thrive at the major league level while managing this condition, so while the odds might not favor Tanaka, I’m never going to fault someone for trying to avoid surgery, especially when experts in this field recommended this conservative route.

That being written, ranking him number one on this list says more about the Yankees’ other options than it does about Tanaka.

2. Michael Pineda

Michael PinedaPaul J. Bereswill

The goofy right-hander’s long-awaited Yankees debut last year gave us this mixed bag: A very modest 76 1/3 innings pitched and a very impressive 206 ERA+ (106 percent better than the league average, factoring in ballparks). Only two other American League pitchers tallied a higher ERA+ in as many innings: Pineda’s teammate Dellin Betances, who recorded a 277 ERA+ in 90 innings, and Baltimore closer Zach Britton, with a 230 ERA+ in the same 76 1/3 innings pitched as Pineda.

So we know that shoulder surgery hasn’t ruined him. But can he double his innings-pitched count while being even slightly above league average?

3. Nathan Eovaldi

The man with the high heat — his fastball averaged 95.7 mph, fourth–best among major league starters, according to FanGraphs — and underwhelming results, he presents a test for the Yankees’ coaching and catching staff. And really, if Larry Rothschild and Brian McCann can elevate him, that would reflect poorly on the Marlins, wouldn’t it?

Eovaldi’s 199 2/3 innings pitched last year would have led the Yankees, by two-thirds of an inning over Kuroda. That durability might prove his best attribute.

4. Johnny Cueto

Johnny CuetoGetty Images

The Yankees have become more reliant on midseason trades in recent years, and Cueto, an impending free agent on a Cincinnati team that easily could stink, stands out as a likely target. Given how little money is coming off the team’s payroll for 2016, a short-term commitment could fit better, anyway.

5. Ivan Nova

He’s expected back close to midseason. Maybe he can be one of the quick rebounders from Tommy John surgery. And maybe he can show us far more of Good Nova (2011, second half of 2013) than Bad Nova (2012, first half of 2013).

6. CC Sabathia

The Yankees’ ace from 2009 through 2012 faces the double doozy of both physical and performance concerns. We don’t know whether he can pitch on his surgically repaired right knee, and even if he can, we don’t know how good he can be on it. Also, he turns 35 in July. There’s no one for whom Yankees fans should root harder, and there might be no one — at least among the “highly paid veterans” category — on whom Yankees fans should rely less.

7. Luis Severino

Luis SeverinoGetty Images

This year’s stud arm, after a 2014 surge through three affiliates that produced a 2.47 ERA with 127 strikeouts and 27 walks in 113 innings. Maybe by midseason, he’ll be ready. Or maybe not.

8. Chris Capuano

Yeesh.

9. Adam Warren

He has prepared this offseason as a starter, but Joe Girardi sure likes him as a bullpen weapon, and it’s not as if his minor-league numbers as a starter overwhelmed.

10. Andy Pettitte

Has a pitcher ever started on the same day the team retires his number in a pregame ceremony?