NFL Survivor Pool Picks and Advice: Week 4

by Matt Severance - 9/27/2017

Well, wasn't Week 3 something! Upsets galore - most of the 1 p.m. ET Sunday
games had fantastic finishes. Now if we can just move on from making the
National Anthem a story each week and simply play football. But I digress.

In Week 3, eight games were decided by six points or fewer, including two
overtime contests. All eight of those games were decided in the final two
minutes or OT. Just two teams - Atlanta and Kansas City - remain
undefeated. Usually, 3-0 teams make the playoffs, but just one team last
season to start 3-0 - New England - advanced to the postseason.

Your Survivor Pool competition likely thinned about a bit with upset losses
by Pittsburgh in Chicago, Miami at the New York Jets (so much for 0-16),
Carolina vs. New Orleans, and Oakland in Washington. It almost thinned out
MUCH MORE, but New England staged a late rally to beat Houston and Green
Bay did the same at home vs. the Bengals.

The Patriots were my top choice last week, but I totally forgot to put my
picks in by the noon ET Sunday deadline because I was dealing with
Hurricane Irma cleanup, etc. Thankfully, my leagues all understood what was
going on and let me pick a late Sunday game. I went with the Packers over
the Bengals even though that worried me a bit with Green Bay missing about
seven starters and Cincinnati on extra rest. I was worried even more with
the Pack down 21-7, but Aaron Rodgers sparked a 27-24 OT victory.

I also owe the 49ers & Rams an apology. I wrote last week of their
Thursday night matchup that "I almost don't want power back by Thursday
night because then I'd have to watch the worst TNF matchup of the season."
I did get power back early Thursday and glad I tuned in as that was one of
the most exciting TNF games in a while. Rams-49ers!?! Just proves you never
know what will happen.

Week 4 is the last before the bye weeks start. Here are the picks,only
liking two road teams, with club listed first the choice.

First Down

Atlanta vs. Buffalo:
The Falcons have looked shaky in two road games, albeit wins. They were
unstoppable at home last year (a different home) and put up 34 points in
their first game in the new Mercedes-Benz Stadium this season. The Bills
might keep this close with their clock-eating running game, but I can't see
them winning.

Second Down

Seattle vs. Indianapolis:
The Seahawks are the only double-digit favorites on the board so they will
be a popular choice unless used already. But I will warn you how bad they
looked at home in Week 2 vs. the 49ers (when Seattle was my top pick).

Dallas vs. LA Rams:
Are the Rams actually good? They shockingly lead the NFL in scoring and
have two 40-point games already. If Dallas wasn't on a short week, it would
be in contention for the top spot.

Green Bay vs. Chicago (Thursday):
Since I used the Packers in Week 3, I won't be tempted to do so here. I've
always said you should avoid the Thursday games because of too many
intangibles with such tired players. I'd steer clear of the Pack here
because it will be tough for all those injured guys from Week 3 to return
in the quick turnaround. Jay Cutler could never beat Aaron Rodgers. Maybe
Mike Glennon can? OK, no. Amazingly, this is the first time the NFL's
oldest rivals will meet with both clubs coming off an overtime victory.

New England vs. Carolina:
The Patriots are oh-so-close to being 0-2 at home. This really should have
been the Super Bowl matchup two seasons ago. Here's hoping you didn't take
Cam Newton early in your fantasy draft. He's not the same guy from 2015.

Arizona vs. San Francisco:
The Cardinals would be in contention for my top spot if they weren't on a
short week after losing Monday night at home to Dallas.

Tampa Bay vs. NY Giants:
Did the Giants figure something out offensively last week? Will Odell
Beckham faux-urinate like a cat in a litter box if he scores this week?
Probably not, and I hope not. His antics vs. Philly made for some great New
York tabloid headlines, though ("Urine Big Trouble" being my favorite).

Kansas City vs. Washington (Monday):
The Redskins are one of just two teams to never win at Arrowhead Stadium.
I'll let you guess/Google the other one.

Third Down

Miami vs. New Orleans:
I must admit thoroughly enjoying Miami's Cutler being outplayed by
68-year-old Jets journeyman Josh McCown last week. Steer clear of this
game, too, as it's in London and those are always unpredictable with the
time change.

Minnesota vs. Detroit:
Wow, did the Lions get hosed last week vs. Atlanta - even if technically
the rule was correct. Lean Detroit here if Sam Bradford is out again. No
way Case Keenum plays like Dan Marino a second straight week.

Jacksonville at NY Jets:
The Jags are road favorites for the first time in six years. You ready to
risk your Survivor Pool on Blake Bortles?

Baltimore vs. Pittsburgh:
The home team usually wins by a field goal in this series. If Pittsburgh's
crap Week 3 effort in Chicago costs the Bears the No. 1 overall pick in the
2018 draft, I'm going to be upset.

Houston vs. Tennessee:
Not long ago, this would have been an unwatchable, boring defensive game.
Now it's Deshaun Watson vs. Marcus Mariota.

LA Chargers vs. Philadelphia:
I'd be willing to bet there are more Eagles fans in the StubHub Center
stands than those rooting for the Bolts. The Chargers have played the best
of the 0-3 teams and are due a win.

Denver vs. Oakland:
Both these teams laid road eggs last week on the East Coast. The Raiders
don't win in Denver often.

Fourth Down

Cincinnati at Cleveland:
"Battle of Ohio" - this might be harder to watch than the awful movie
"Battle: Los Angeles." When do the Cavaliers start? The Indians' first ALDS
game? At least Cleveland fans have those teams. Cincinnati only has the
Reds. If this were in Cincinnati, I'd probably have the Bengals as my pick
this week as they are better than a 0-3 team.