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Wednesday, June 14, 2017

Shale Law in the Spotlight: Updates on Induced Seismicity in the United States

Written
by Chloe Marie – Research Fellow

In
this article, we will provide an update on induced seismicity regulatory
developments in the United States. Our last article relating to this topic
addressed induced seismicity in Pennsylvania
back in May 2016.

On
March 1, 2017, the U.S. Geological Surveys (USGS) released its 2017 One-Year Seismic-Hazard Forecast for the Central and Eastern
United States from Induced and Natural Earthquakes.
This annual forecast is part of the USGS National Seismic Hazard Model Project
(NSHMP), whose main objectives are to promote earthquake-resilient building
construction, help implement insurance coverage for human-induced earthquakes
in property insurance policies, and provide information to the regulatory
authorities for the purpose of creating a regulatory framework to manage and
prevent the risk of induced seismicity.

In
this 2017 forecast, the USGS “acknowledge[s] that human-induced earthquakes
can cause damage,” notably as a result of deep wastewater disposal, and thus
stresses the important of such short-term forecasting model to better assess the
seismic hazard in the United States. The USGS identified five areas of focus
prone to induced seismic activity in 2016, including Oklahoma-Kansas, the Raton
basin at the Colorado/New Mexico border, northern Texas, northern Arkansas, and
the New Madrid Seismic Zone (NMSZ) located on the eastern side of the Rocky
Mountains.

According
to the USGS forecast, the Oklahoma-Kansas, the Raton basin and the NMSZ focus
areas reported human-induced and natural earthquakes with intensity higher than
M2.7 throughout 2016, with the exception of the areas of northern Texas and
northern Arkansas. More precisely, the Oklahoma-Kansas focus area experienced
about 2500 M≥2.7earthquakes split
into 162 independent events and 21 M≥4 earthquakes. As for the Raton basin focus area, it
experienced 6 M≥2.7earthquakes divided into 5 independent events and 2 M≥4 earthquakes. Finally, 24 M≥2.7earthquakes also happened in 2016 in the NMSZ focus
area. The USGS indicated that “only Oklahoma recorded
earthquakes with M≥4.7,
including the ones that occurred in Fairview on February 13, 2016, Pawnee on
September 3, 2016, and Cushing on November 7, 2016.

Interestingly,
the USGS found that the 2016 seismicity rates in the five focus areas are
somewhat lower than the ones in 2015 but draws attention to the fact that there
is a “continuing high hazard in the Oklahoma-Kansas, Raton basin, and NMSZ
focus areas.” According to the USGS “about 3 million people live with
continuing increased potential for damaging shaking from induced seismicity,
and the chance of damage in the next year from induced earthquakes is still
similar to that of natural earthquakes in high-hazard areas of California.” The
USGS declared that seismicity should be “stationary” over the year of 2017.

In
addition, the state of Oklahoma also recently implemented new regulatory and
monitoring measures in an effort to reduce and better understand the impacts of
induced seismicity.

On
December 20, 2016, the Oklahoma Corporation Commission (OCC), together with the
Oklahoma Geological Survey (OGS), released seismicity guidelines for operators
located in the South Central Oklahoma Oil Province (SCOOP) and the Sooner Trend
Anadarko Basin Canadian and Kingfisher counties (STACK) to use during well
completion activities. OGS Director Jeremy Boak declared that such guidelines
are intended to anticipate and prevent induced seismicity in the SCOOP and
STACK regions. Indeed, he mentioned that “while the data indicates that
seismicity related to the SCOOP and STACK would be far less frequent and much
lower in magnitude than the activity we are addressing in the main earthquake
region of the state that has been linked to wastewater disposal, we have enough
information to develop a plan aimed at reducing the risk of these smaller events
as operations commence.”

Later,
on February 24, 2017, the OCC also issued a new directive
for the Earthquake Area of Interest (AOI) entitled “Looking Ahead, New Earthquake
Directive Takes Aim at Future Disposal Rates.” This directive applies to 654
Arbuckle disposal wells in the Area of Interest and is intended to “keep future
[disposal] volume
increases in check.” Oklahoma Oil and Gas Conservation Division (OGCD) Director
Tim Baker declared that “the continued drop in earthquakes, as well as new data
and input from the Oklahoma Geological Survey have caused a change in our
orientation from focusing on current disposal volumes within the AOI to looking
ahead to try and ensure there isn’t a sudden, surprise jump in those disposal
volumes.”

Finally,
a study report
from Oklahoma’s Water for 2060 Produced Water Working Group (PWWG) was released
on April 26, 2017, which is part of the implementation of the 2012 Oklahoma
Comprehensive Water Plan (OCWP). Governor Mary Fallin commissioned this study
report in December 2015 with the purpose of reviewing the management
alternatives of produced water disposal from oil and gas operations. The report
concludes that “produced water re-use by the oil and gas industry is the most
viable cost-effective alternative due to minimal water treatment needs and thus
low treatment costs.”

For
further information on hydraulic fracturing and induced seismicity, please view
a webinar from the Penn
State Extension webinar series that was recorded on April 13, 2017. In that
webinar, David W. Eaton, PhD, Professor of Geosciences at the University of
Calgary, and the NSERC/Chevron Industrial Research Chair in Microseismic System
Dynamics provides a presentation on recent studies on the topic.

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