A ban on cheap alcohol may do nothing to cut crime or prevent health problems
resulting from excessive drinking, research warns today.

David Cameron is preparing to introduce a minimum price of at least 40p per unit of alcohol and ministers are expected to launch a public consultation on the scheme within days.

However, a report published by the Adam Smith Institute found that there was no evidence that a minimum price would reduce the harm caused by high levels of drinking.

Such a move could even lead to a new illicit market in alcoholic drinks, push poorer drinkers into poverty, and fail to acknowledge the potential health benefits of moderate drinking, the report said.

The proposals for a minimum price have been highly divisive in government, with the Prime Minister facing opposition from inside the Cabinet.

Mr Cameron is thought to be personally committed to the idea and argued this year that a 40p minimum unit price could result in 50,000 fewer crimes a year and 900 fewer alcohol-related deaths a year by the end of the decade.

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However, John C Duffy, a former government health official with 40 years’ experience as a statistician working on alcohol-related problems, warned that ministers had no evidence to back up the figures.

His study claimed that the proposal for a minimum price per unit of alcohol was based on a single, flawed computer model, which assumed that the reform would have a significant impact on heavy drinkers.

But this ignores the psychological and social reasons why some people drink to excess, the researchers said.

The model, devised by the University of Sheffield, predicts the effect of minimum pricing on NHS expenditure, crime and unemployment. But it is based on untested “assumptions” and “wild speculation”, Mr Duffy’s report states.

“There is not enough information around to produce a reliable model,” he said.

Christopher Snowdon, co-author of the report, said ministers were in danger of making a “mistake”.

“Minimum pricing might reduce alcohol harm, or it might increase it, or it might bring about other unexpected consequences, good or bad,” he said.

“An admission that the evidence base is, to all intents and purposes, non-existent is less likely to mislead decision-makers than a spurious prediction.

“The only certainty is that minimum pricing will transfer large sums of money from the poorest people in society to wealthy industries. This is a deeply regressive leap into the unknown and it should not be taken as a response to wafer-thin ‘evidence’.”

The Home Office has modelled a minimum price of 40p but health campaigners have called for the level to be set at 50p, mirroring the policy in Scotland.

The Treasury is said to be reluctant to introduce a 50p rate on the grounds that it would damage the drinks market and lead to a dramatic fall in tax receipts.

Senior Liberal Democrats are said to believe the plan is “illiberal” and Andrew Lansley, the Leader of the House of Commons, has also voiced concerns.

However, Mr Cameron is understood to have resolved to press ahead with the plans, which may include a compromise option of 45p per unit.

A Downing Street spokesman said the proposals would be published “shortly”.

“Binge drinking isn’t some fringe issue, it accounts for half of all alcohol consumed in this country,” he said. “The crime and violence it causes drains resources in our hospitals, generates mayhem on our streets and spreads fear in our communities.”