Editor’s note: Michael Mazza is a research fellow at the American Enterprise Institute. The views expressed are his own.

It’s difficult to know precisely what was behind China’s decision to institute an East China Sea Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) at the weekend. Chinese claims to the contrary, it is clearly meant to up the pressure on Japan in the two countries’ dispute over the Senkaku/Diaoyu islands, over which the ADIZ extends. Internal Chinese political dynamics may also be at work here; President Xi Jinping, for example, must be benefitting from taking a strong stance vis-à-vis Japan. But whatever the reason for the creation of the ADIZ at this time, Beijing may ultimately regret it – and not only because it increases the likelihood of a violent incident over the East China Sea.

First off, the move needlessly antagonizes Taiwan and South Korea. The fact is that it puts a wrinkle into recently stable cross-Strait relations, as Taiwan also claims sovereignty over the Senkakus (known as the Diaoyutai in Taiwan), and it now has an overlapping ADIZ with the mainland.

The ADIZ is even more surprising in the context of China-South Korea relations, which have looked particularly warm of late. Seoul’s quarrels with Japan over history have been at their worst in recent months, and Beijing has effectively stoked that fire. But China’s new ADIZ overlaps with South Korea’s; covers the disputed Socotra Rock (which both countries claim as within their own exclusive economic zone); and may extend a bit too close for comfort to Jeju Island, where South Korea is building a major naval base. In one fell swoop, Beijing has reminded Seoul that South Korea has more in common with Japan than it normally likes to admit.

Second, rather than lead to heightened wariness in Washington about getting caught in the middle of the dispute, the United States clearly considers the ADIZ a challenge to its support for Japan and its ability to operate freely in international airspace above the East China Sea. That explains the promptness with which Secretary of State John Kerry and Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel issued statements about the ADIZ.

Kerry expressed deep concern and described the ADIZ creation as an “escalatory” and “unilateral action” designed to “change the status quo” in the region. After also expressing concern and describing the action as “destabilizing,” Hagel felt compelled to assert that the implementation of the ADIZ “will not in any way change how the United States conducts military operations in the region” and to “reaffirm” that “Article V of the U.S. Japan Mutual Defense Treaty applies to the Senkaku Islands.” An unnamed U.S. official told the Wall Street Journal that “there would likely be a demonstration of American military resolve to continue operating in the area of the islands without Chinese interference.”

Both statements – especially Hagel’s – are a boost for Japan, and neither was well received in Beijing. But things could get even worse for China. Indeed, Beijing will have much more cause for concern if the ADIZ leads the United States to alter its officially neutral position on the sovereignty dispute, something that Washington has thus far been at pains to avoid.

In his statement, Kerry noted that “we don’t support efforts by any state to apply its ADIZ procedures to foreign aircraft not intending to enter its national airspace.” This raises an interesting question: If U.S. aircraft operating in the vicinity of the Senkakus refuse Chinese requests for identification, will that mark an implicit rejection of Chinese claims to sovereignty over the islands?

An explicit recognition of Japanese sovereignty, moreover, may no longer be considered out of bounds in Washington. China has consistently opted for escalation over the past 14 months; the ADIZ is only the latest action to not only test Japan but the U.S.-Japan alliance as well. U.S. policy regarding the Senkakus has always been somewhat confusing: the United States recognizes Japanese administration of the islands, but takes no position on competing sovereignty claims, while considering defense of the islands to be a treaty obligation. The logic for maintaining that policy is weakening. An Obama administration that must be growing tired of China’s tests may be looking for ways to communicate in unqualified terms that the U.S.-Japan alliance is an unshakeable one.

Japan, meanwhile, will be looking for ways to communicate its own resolve in the face of Chinese pressure. Since the Japanese government’s purchase from private owners of three of Senkaku islands last year, Japan’s actions have generally been non-escalatory. But Tokyo can issue only so many diplomatic demarches, and has increasingly limited alternative means of signaling steadfastness to Beijing. The government has long toyed with the idea of stationing officials on the islands. As the Wall Street Journalreported in September:

“A top Japanese government official said Tuesday that stationing government officials on a group of disputed islands is one way of strengthening Japan’s claim to them…Placing government officials on the islands ‘remains one option,’ chief government spokesman Yoshihida Suga told reporters at a regular news conference. ‘Under what circumstance we’ll consider [that option] will be decided strategically,’ Mr. Suga said.”

Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and his advisors may be considering whether now is the time. But regardless of what they decide in this instance, Chinese actions are likely pushing Japan closer to adopting this course rather than intimidating Tokyo into inaction.

Over the last year, China may have succeeded in altering the decades-long status quo in the East China Sea. But actions once apparently aimed at upsetting the reality of Japanese control of the islands now increasingly appear aimed at asserting Chinese control. The difference may be subtle, but it marks a dangerous threshold. Crossing it may lead Japan, the United States, and others to take the very steps that Beijing most wants to forestall.

It’s still too soon to tell, but China’s new ADIZ may prove to be a strategic blunder – one that ultimately puts China’s own interests at risk, while having lasting repercussions for stability in Asia.

soundoff(300 Responses)

jianfei

The dragon has become to boastful and impatient.. ho ho ho! china is revealing its true goal. to not only become the number one economy at the expense of all western manufacturing. the PRC will not stop until its crazy ideologist communist party reaches its goal of global domination as a super power. after brainwashing 1.3 billion chinese in its anti-west nationalistic thinking, now it feels so 'uber' confident that it thinks it actually has the support of russia and can defeat as a paper tiger, china. you have a lot to learn. we are all watching you mature. however until now all we have seen is a baby chinese mao daughter paper tiger and some pathetic attempts at following the art of war. take a step back and mature before you think you are ready to rule the world chinese style.. foolish chinese.. !!!

Effectively the PRC has shot down a plane, they know the US will call for restraint, same with the ROK and Turkey. So we all know how it will play out, the PLA want to do the action the suits say why bother, we all know.

It always amazes me that there are so many people that keep expecting this utopian world to just break out. You know, no war, no conflict, everyone living in peace & harmony. You know like the Coke ads from the 70's. LOL! It isn't going to happen people. The world is a dangerous place. Always has been, always will be. Its called reality. Would you rather live in a weak country or a strong country? Wake up, read history, stop being so naïve.

@FM has experienced enough reality to know that human beings are born with the same instincts through successive generations.
I agree with @FM completely.
One instinct in humans causes them to aspire to Utopia, and also to rebels against their parents' values.
There is no Utopia.
Human beings are aggressive, not just assertive, by nature. They survive that way, and that is good.

usa and britain ireland australia norway and all those losers should just wait there mothers will be leveled to the ground they are messing with the wrong people 1 nuke and britain will be gone 1 nuke and australia is dust if all of them want a fight then they will taste what real pain is.

Australia is actually rather large, so it would take more than one nuke. Of course, the US would then nuke China a thousand times and kill a billion people and the remaining several hundred million would die slowly of starvation and radiation.

A Chinese retaliatory nuke strikes would kill half the American population. The other half would slowly starve to death or die of radiation sickness in a nuclear winter. Don't you think this MUTUAL ASSURED DESTRUCTION IS MAD? Then why make dumb remarks?

I would hope that the lessons learned from Nagasaki and Hiroshima would be enough to deter anyone from taking such a permanent action, JIF.
Unfortunately, people either have short memories, or think that the risks are worth it to forward their agenda, whatever that may be.

November 28, 2013 at 7:35 pm |

chrissy

Thank you @ banasy! I was thinking that same thing when i read his post to me earlier. And even if not, our POTUS would not be the first to nuke anyone! And why Australia even??? Lmao

Wanta know how i could tell @ Maersk? Cuz you cant speak properly! Lol and i betcha aint sittin down either huh? Been bending over too much too huh? You might wanta re~think those extra curricular activities of yours! Pole smoking isnt good for the diet no matter what anyone else tells you!

going to war is not an option...what a load of crap....have we learned nothing......thousands of years of war...murder, slaughter, children, women etc...who were once enemies are now friends, and who were once friends are now enemies...and the cycle goes on...the only difference now...is we have the power to destroy the ship we call earth...to end all life on this planet...what good would this accomplish...
lets not let the failure of politicians/people of power do this again...we as people of this earth must realize, accept and act on our responsibility for each other and our planet...
there is a solution that does not involve war...lets seek this solution together

No one is going to nuke anyone or go to war with anyone. This is probably some bizarro strategy by China to get something it wants Cuban Missile "Crisis" style. It's just so pathetic and self-defeating, it almost seems like a plan that North Korea would have cooked up.

The author is dumb or pretends not to see the strategic significance od action by china. By establishing the zone, china asserts its authority beyond its territory. 50 years down the road, they will exert control over the islands.

I see several writers here using words like dumb, stupid, moron, and fool. The arguments accompanying these insults are usually based on irrational premises.
Typical is the frequent reference to a Grail-like "Peace" that has never existed because of human nature and the necessity for territoriality if human beings are to survive as a species.
There will always be wars, between nations and between individuals. Advocacy of complete disarmament is suicidal.

Did China make strategic error with air zone?
China's only mistake is trying to keep its people from freely accessing information around the world. Keeping its people stupid is what's keeping China backward.

And what will we do, have another chicken Navy Pilot land a super secret aircraft on the mainland after an incident over the islands . . . while we sit and complain. That certainly worked. They got all the data they needed and made us disassemble the plane to remove it vs. flying it out. Any wonder they believe they can do anything?

A lot of western people concern human rights of china and these people may be the friend of Chinese. However,Mr. Michael Mazza (the autor)is unhappy because of ADIZ but I do. Mr.Michael Mazza is not the friend of Chinese definitely. I suggest not approving his visa to China for ever. Father more, China should do more things which the enemy not delight with.

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