Leave has increased its vote share by two points to attract 49 per cent of definite voters compared to Remain’s stagnant 48 per cent, reversing its net position from a one-point net negative position last week.

Unlike last week, however, Leave’s gains have now also translated to the trend among the electorate as a whole, suggesting that last week’s figures were a reflection of a broad change among public attitude and not just a fleeting bump in the poll numbers.

Forty-four per cent of all respondents (both those who are certain of voting and all others) now say they are intending to vote for Brexit in just over a weeks’ time, a notable increase of 4 points, while 49 per cent say they will vote to stay in the EU, a three-point fall.

Although the Remain camp are still holding onto a five-point net lead among the entire voting population, the Leave campaign have managed to close the gap among all voters by a substantial seven points.

Seven per cent of all respondents are still undecided and less than a quarter (22 per cent) are soft voters (likely to change their minds before referendum day). This includes 18 per cent who are soft Remainers and 15 per cent who are soft Leavers.

Accordingly, expectations of a victory for Remain have dropped to a new low since the first ORB poll in March. Just over half (54 per cent) think that Britain will vote to stay in the EU, a decrease of five points, while almost a quarter (24 per cent) now foresee Brexit coming out tops, an increase of two points, closing Remain’s net lead to 30 per cent.

The last time the expectations gap was this low was at the beginning of April when Remain sported a 31-point net lead over Leave. This peaked at 47 per cent in mid-May, when almost two thirds (65 per cent) of all respondents thought Remain would win the day.

Despite this, turnout amongst Remain supporters has actually increased since last week. Three in five Remainers (60 per cent) now say they are certain to vote on referendum day, a sizeable increase of six points, while turnout among Leavers remains relatively constant, dropping by a point to 68 per cent. Overall turnout has increased by three points to 62 per cent.

Awareness of the referendum date is now much higher among those intending to vote Remain. Overall, three quarters (75 per cent) of respondents correctly think that the referendum is scheduled for the 23 rd June. This includes 79 per cent of Remain voters but only 72 per cent of Leave voters.

Well over a quarter (29 per cent) of Leave supporters either don’t know when the referendum vote is scheduled for or think that it will be held on some other day (not the 23rd ).

This should immediately raise a red flag for the Leave camp. Low awareness of the date of the referendum – or indeed a misunderstanding of when it will be held – could undoubtedly harm the turnout levels among Leave’s supporters and could work to negate the lead they’ve managed to gain among definite voters.

When it comes to some of the most crucial policy attributes, the Leave campaign has continued to make strides, especially on issues of the economy, immigration and health. On which side “will create more jobs,” Remain garners 41 per cent of support to Leave’s 38 per cent, an increase of four points for Leave which narrows Remain’s net lead to only three points.

On which side “will improve the UK’s immigration system,” Remain attracts 19 per cent to Leave’s 55 per cent, widening Leave’s net positive position by three points to 36 per cent. And when it comes to who “will damage the NHS,” Leave has improved its relative position by six points, attracting 35 per cent of voters compared to Remain’s 37 per cent.

On the issue of safety, however, it is worth noting that Leave is now seen as the side that “will expose the UK to a greater risk of terrorism.” Thirty-nine per cent of voters think that this is the case for Leave compared to only 32 per cent who think the same for Remain, reflecting a seven-point net lead for Leave and a broad change of opinion from last week when Remain led by three points.

On attributes concerning the campaigns themselves, Leave has also seen a steady improvement. When it comes to which side “has a clear vision for Britain after the referendum,” Leave garners 31 per cent to Remain’s 36 per cent, a decrease of four points in Remain’s advantage from last week.

These positive trends for Leave among the entire electorate, as well as definite voters, indicate that both its messaging and campaign tactics may be beginning to pay off. But with just over one week left until Britain heads to the polls, the question is whether they will pay off in time.

Alternatively will voters decide to opt for the status quo as decision day looms for the majority who have not yet cast a vote by post?