The Warriors Confront Life After Love

After weeks of “sources” and speculation, there was finally some real news on the Kevin Love beat — and it wasn’t good news for the Warriors. On Tuesday, the Cleveland Cavaliers orchestrated a reverse salary-dump with the Utah Jazz, buying relatively small, non-guaranteed contracts that could be sent to Minnesota as trade ballast in a deal for the Wolves’ much longed-for power forward. A day earlier, the Cleveland announced that they are close to signing Andrew Wiggins — a necessary step in shipping him out for Love, since the Cavs need his salary on the books to balance the deal. There’s still time for things to change, particularly since Wiggins can’t be dealt for 30 days after signing his deal. But the Warriors’ future is looking increasingly Loveless.

If the rumored Wiggins, Bennet and a 1st round pick for Love, Martin and/or Barea deal eventually happens, the Warriors can take solace in the fact that they likely couldn’t beat the offer — even if they had opted to offer Klay Thompson. Would a deal have been possible had the Warriors offered Thompson before the draft or LeBron’s return to Cleveland? Maybe — but given Minnesota’s relentless push to extract top value for Love, it’s entirely possible Flip would have waited on that deal as well. And had LeBron stayed in Miami, the Warriors’ Lee/Barnes/pick offer very well could have been the top of the market. While we still have months before the season starts to debate the “what ifs” of hypothetical Love deals, the more relevant conversation is now how much the Warriors have improved with the moves they actually made.

Kerr vs. Jackson — The most significant change so far in the Warriors’ 2014 off-season is also the hardest to analyze. We know all too well about Jackson’s failings (and strengths) as a coach, but Kerr is still a great unknown (yes, even after coaching a bunch of players that won’t be on the active roster in the Vegas summer league). My guess is the most dramatic changes under Kerr come on the offensive end, with the team breaking free from its league-worst ranking on touches per possession in favor of a more fluid offense. That change alone — if it comes to pass — is likely worth a few more wins next season. The Warriors suffered last season through long patches of offensive futility. If Kerr can find a way to avoid those through better ball movement and a more aggressive tempo, the Warriors’ offense should be a more consistently devastating attack. Not sold yet on Kerr as an upgrade? At least you can take some comfort in the assistant coach comparison, where the swap of Pete Myers and Lindsey Hunter for Alvin Gentry and Ron Adams is a LeBron-to-Cleveland type coup.

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Livingston vs. Blake — The Warriors’ biggest bench failing was obvious all last season, and Bob Myers struck out on three attempts to fix it. The Warriors started the year with Toney Douglas, but his lack of offense was crippling. The next attempt to find a floor general wasn’t much of an improvement, with Jordan Crawford’s tweener instincts leading to plenty of white-knuckle possessions. At the trade deadline, the Warriors had a multi-million dollar trade exception that they could have used to bring in a more talented rotation player. Instead, they went the budget route with Steve Blake — and largely got what they paid for. While Blake undoubtedly suffered from Jackson’s system (or lack thereof), he was a marginal player on the downslope of his career. The underwhelming results weren’t too shocking given what the team had to work with — although the Warriors’ decision to let another trade exception expire makes you wonder what could have been in the Clippers series and beyond had they opted to make a bigger splash at least year’s deadline. But all that is in the past, and Myers seems to have learned from his failures. Shaun Livingston was a quality starter for the Nets last season in Deron Williams’ absence. He brings true point guard skills, Curry-compatible size and some much needed post offense for the Warriors’ outside-oriented attack. For the first time since Jarrett Jack departed, the Warriors have someone on the bench they can trust to run the offense. His steady hand should help the Warriors avoid the slumps they slogged through last season with Jackson’s bench-mob hockey substitutions. The minutes Livingston will log at the 1 should have a positive ripple effect throughout the rotation.

Rush vs. Crawford — You could easily write this comparison as “Rush vs. ?” because it’s not clear who the Warriors used as a back-up shooting guard last season. Thompson was an iron man, playing the vast majority of the minutes at the two. When he went to the bench, Curry often swung over to play off the ball. Barnes and Iguodala occasionally logged minutes, but neither was a good fit. If you’re going to give the title to anyone, it probably goes to Crawford, who brought the shoot-first mentality you’d expect from the position. In swapping Crawford for Rush, the Warriors exchange erratic volume for controlled efficiency. The pre-injury Rush was a two-way player who knew his role and shot a blistering .501 from the field and .452 from behind the arc in his last full season. The post-injury Rush hasn’t come anywhere close to those numbers, but after getting his legs back last season, there’s reason for optimism. If Rush can play steady defense and knock down open threes, he’ll be a nice replacement for Crawford. If Rush can regain any of his explosiveness to be the slasher he once was, he’ll be a low-risk/high-reward steal for the Warriors. This move won’t be a game-changer move, but it still addresses a glaring weakness.

Barnes vs. Barnes — After all the hype surrounding the potential Love trade, it will be easy to feel like this off-season has been a let-down without any impact moves for the Warriors. Those types of off-seasons are inevitably met with the old “internal development” mantra from the team. But if Harrison Barnes can regain the form he showed in the 2012-13 playoffs, there may be some truth to that well-worn rationalization. Kerr has talked repeatedly about the need for a stretch four. Barnes was that player against the Nuggets and the Spurs, spreading the floor with threes, crashing the boards and slashing to the basket. His Spurs series averages of 17.3 points and 7.3 rebounds are mind-boggling given how disengaged he looked last season. Jackson refused to give him major minutes in that role again, but the new regime should bring new opportunities. If Barnes can become a consistent contributor — either as a stretch four or a better-used three — it’ll not only help the Warriors’ bench, but give them a valuable young and cheap asset to potentially deal at the trade deadline.

Iguodala vs. Iguodala — Last season, Iguodala’s defense and unselfishness made him the often unnoticed glue that held the Warriors together. But when the Warriors signed him to an eight-figure-a-year deal, they were looking for more than a glue guy. Kerr’s offense should benefit Iguodala as much as anyone. An emphasis on pushing the tempo will get him more fast-break opportunities. A modified triangle offense will play to his high basketball IQ. Improved bench scoring from Livingston and Rush should take off some of the pressure and defensive attention when Iguodala’s playing with the second unit. After turning in his lowest scoring total since his rookie campaign, I’m expecting a bit of a bounce-back year (hamstrings willing).

Ezeli vs. O’Neal — This final comparison is hopefully one the Warriors can avoid. It would be great to have both Ezeli and O’Neal back next season. One brings an athletic, youthful presence; the other savvy, veteran inspiration. As a two-headed back-up center, they give you lots of flexibility. But if O’Neal is done, the pressure falls on Ezeli to regain his health and build upon his rookie campaign. Ezeli’s defense has already proven to be NBA ready. And as a smart and relatively mobile player, there’s no reason that Ezeli couldn’t be successful in a more structured offense. Like Rush, he’s unlikely to make a major impact, but he still fills a hole from last season.

Assuming Love is lost, the Warriors need to get on with their lives. They were 6 games back from the Clippers last season and 3 games back from home-court advantage in the first round. Can the additions of Kerr, Livingston and Rush and improved years from Barnes, Iguodala and Ezeli bridge that gap? Maybe, but the rest of the West is improving as well. If there’s no impact move on the horizon, the Warriors would be well served to fill out their remaining roster spots with young assets that can be developed into potential add-ins or replacement parts should a blockbuster trade deadline deal roll around. Guys like Al-Farouq Aminu or Chris Douglas-Roberts may not be glamorous names, but they still have upside that could be developed in the right system. The best teams find guys whose contributions exceed their acquisition price — whether in terms of draft order or contract price. Klay Thompson (on his current contract), Draymond Green and even Stephen Curry all fit that model. Acquiring Love while keeping Thompson would be an all-time low-cost steal. But if dreams of Love are finally done, Bob Myers will need to look elsewhere to turn nearly nothing into something.

Kevin Love on a really good team is essentially Troy Murphy. We have Troy Murphy, at least, to wait for who is currently a free agent. We also have to wait for Murphy’s response. Will he commit to the Warriors? I do not think that can be assumed. Would the Warriors sign Murphy without his commitment to an extension? In the Warriors’s case, that would mean that Kevin Love and Troy Murphy would both be on one-year deals. The dust has not yet settled.

Airbus01

The only elite player on that team was Barry, but Wilkes is also in the basketball hall of fame. I’d also argue that the league has changed in the last 20 years and the 2 Hall of Fame level player thing starts in the 90’s (the Pistons being the exception)

willow

I thought it was the Monta Effect?

Logjam

You do identify what may be a real risk–the stiffening and hesitation in its play of a team accustomed to a lack of structure if its suddenly over-coached. That’s a risk worth taking, though, since the unsystematic offense last year was not effective in relation to the team’s abilities (we hope–that is, we do, not you).

Imagine MJ’s overachievement in his coaching last year if only you had predicted a 30 win season. It would have been one of the great coaching achievements of all time!

J Haskins

This is how simple it is. I tried to enlighten. But most need to hear it from the media first before lending any credibility to someone stating clear fact. I enjoyed that silly debate because It’s the world we live in. Check it out

My recollection of this years playoffs was David Lee standing flatfooted while Jordan jumped over him for rebounds and slam dunks. Of course, maybe I’m the one in the alternate universe.
I like David Lee. He’s a good player and a strong power forward. Not a center.

Newtah

Is this for chuckles or drug-induced?

NCDub

Haven’t scrolled down so these health issues might have already been addressed in this thread. Is so mea culpa. Nevertheless since you guys in aggregate .seem to know everything, here goes–please update if possible–
1. The state of Bush’s health–is he ready to go & if so at what former skill level do you suppose?
2. Ditto for Barnes–has he shed all that muscle from last year which I expect did him more harm than good at least in slowing him down–I’m of course assuming the toe is A-OK at this juncture?
3. How about Bogut & his always-questionable health stuff given he’s again–mysteriously b3eing silent as is the FO–while refraining from world competition? and
4. What’s JON’s overall readiness to play & his demeanor–desire to return for one more ring shot as I hope he will do?
Thanks in advance as I’m eager to get on with this much-improved bunch of DubPlayers & DubCoaches & their legitimate ring pursuit as I see it from here beginning now provided they don’t start dropping like flies…and certainly with NoLove to screw everything up as well.

willow

“Flow coaching” does not equal heavy reliance on isos, at least in my opinion.
And it does make sense to (slightly) cut the minutes of a 15 million dollar PF who is a 20/10 machine, when it is clear his efficiency falls off after low 30 minutes of play.
This will be fun to see how things play out under the new coach. As a Warriors fan, I am hopeful. As a board hater, you seem less so.

willow

That is because you actually watch the games.

NCDub

BH
DavidLee heart > KevinLove heart. Same with guts, hustle, effort, unselfishness, team play, passing ability & desire to “do-what-it-takes…to get it done”. Fighting through injuries too. He’d even agree to less $$$$ as a BUPF in two myears I’d bet.
So why is most everyone here (almost everyone) considering him as a trade fait accompli? Not GrampaTom that’s for certain. Color be dumb but…..he’s a 2X all star with huge cajones as I see it/them…smile & oops…who said that?
So guess I’m a Lee-keeper too as well as a Klay-keeper. Fellows like those are rare & hard to find. They’re like the old prom queen who was just that–rare, hard to find & hard to get. Once you’ve got her (them) never let ’em go.
Is that about it Watson?

willow

Perhaps he will return to the board some day. I’m sure most here would look forward to that and welcome him.

“Green proved to be a jack of all trades, capable of rebounding, passing, protecting the rim and playing on-ball defense at high levels. Per 36 minutes, Green averaged 10.2 points, 3.0 assists, 8.2 rebounds, 2.0 steals and 1.4 blocks; the only other player to do that in his sophomore season was The Round Mound of Rebound, Charles Barkley. Green’s playoff stats per 36 were even gaudier; his 13.1 points, 3.2 assists, 9.2 rebounds, 1.9 steals and 1.9 blocks helped the Dubs overcome defensive anchor Andrew Bogut’s absence and push theLos Angeles Clippers to a Game 7. No other player has replicated that performance.”

We may have a Barkley in our hand and we want to trade Lee+Klay for Love. Especially this Barkley can defend PG all the way to C. ( I do not think Barkley was ever that agile to guard point guards… )
Green + Bogut + Dre are winners who impact the game way above just the stats. Curry + Green + Bogut + Dre imo are the core of this team. All 4 have that tenacity that they just would do anything to win.
Klay imo is more fragile on his mental aspect of the game but he definitely picked it up in the second half.

Livingston is also a winner that he knows how hard to come back from his devastating injury and every minute on the court is so precious, he wants to be the best he can be.
Rush will be in the same position this season.

I would rather start transitioning Lee to gradually split time with Green at PF than getting Love who will suppress Green’s playing time. And Lee will become a expiring contract that we can trade him to get another big or resign him for a much fair contract to be that 6th man.

if Klay would not sign with a discount to get with the program here, we can trade him or just RFA him. He can enjoy his 16M in Hornets or somewhere else either this year or next year.

NCDub

jsl
Absolutely was team ball–except for the unfortunate & embarrassing playoff Barry funk incident. How could any all star succumb to such a level? Give me the damn ball or I’m out of here. The case is closed for me but never will it be out of my mind.

NCDub

air
Loved Barry but see my thoughts immediately above.

NCDub

nbf
The $64MM question is can Melo play team ball?
I’ve liked him ever since his Boeheim days, but JB in essence let him go thus missing a teacing/learning experience for the sake of keeping his star happy.
Don’t recall any Orange titles with Melo but I might be wrong. Too bad as he’s really talented but, alas, not a winner in my book.

jsl165

One could easily argue Wilkes became a ‘great’ player later — specifically, with the Lakers, starting about five years later — but he was really just an excellent rookie in ’74-’75.

I agree that the two-greats thing is more recent — and that the Pistons are the best example of a ‘team’ that didn’t need two greats. But I’d put the Mavs of three years ago in that category — because only Dirk was great then.

dunkin boguts

Kevin Love may not stand up to the Popovich discipline test. But he is a great basketball player.

NCDub

Sorry but here’s another question from GT.
Why on earth are any of us being critical of Kerr? H’s done all he could,do thus far hiring great coaches, practice coaching in SL, voting strongly to keep-Klay, beginning to install an O perfectly suited to this bunch, re-assuring Lee & Harrison, flying to Bogut-ville…again what am I missing?
He’s a long shot for a ring this year but give him time. It’ll be there in a year or two & every year after.
And isn’t that exactly what Lacob is pursuing a la his Celtic model? Let’s chill a bit nhere, shall we? Lacob is definitely putting his $$$$ where his mouth is with these coaching hires & these player signings.
Kerr kudos & Lacob kudos too?

Chris L

Wasn’t on the Sonics’ championship team, though. Liked Slick alot—with that shaved head he also makes “All-Nickname.”

len

Kevin Love on a good team has been compared to Troy Murphy. Do people really want to sign Troy Murphy to a max money?

One more time (do I need a life?).
Here are my thoughts on this year’s Dub performances–
Wins–52+.
Seed–6 mor better.
Playoff run–2nd. round+.
NBA 6th.man-Dray.
Most inspired HC hire–Kerr.
Most valuable NewDub–Shaun.
Please keep these #’s in mind at our annual year-end tallies. GT’s on record with these–with no excuses for bad luck, bad refs, bad scheduling, better WC teams, lousy health. I stand with these cards–w/o Love of course.

jsl165

Well, then, PM, we have a very differing opinion of what a ‘great’ player is — and I’d venture not too many would argue that Barry, Wilkes, Smith, and Johnson were simultaneously great players, individually, in ’74-’75.

That was a great team, that made the best use of its parts — which was my point.

For example:

1. Wilkes: Scored 14.2 in the regular season, and had 8.2 RBs — hardly elite in either category. (In the playoffs, his scoring elevated to 15, but his boards dropped to seven.) And he averaged over 30 mpg, and played in every game that year.

2. Smith: Averaged 7.7 points and 1.9 RBs (dropping to 6.4 and 1.8 in the playoffs) — not very talismanic of greatness, either.

4. Barry — for comparison: 30.6 and 5.7 in the regular season; 28.2 and 5.5 in the playoffs.

But, here’s the Barry kicker: He was not just the best scorer by far — more than doubling Wilkes’ numbers — he was also the team assist leader, and by quite a margin.

During the season, he averaged 6.2 dimes, fully two more per game than Beard (second, at 4.2). By comparison, Wilkes was at 2.2 and Smith at 1.8.

Moreover, Barry was even more important relatively in the playoffs. Tho his dimes dropped a tenth of a point — to 6.1 — that number was twice Beard’s (i.e. second highest); Wilkes and Smith, by comparison, were at 1.6 and 1.9.

And, these are not isolated stats. Barry was, by far, the team leader in steals — more than twice as many as Wilkes, three times as many as Smith; he took over 27 shots per game — over twice as many as Wilkes and four times Smith’s number; he hit over 90% of his FT’s — Wilkes was below 75% and Smith at 80%; he had more blocked shots per game than Wilkes (second on the team to Ray and Johnson, the fives). He was, in short, the Dubs’ ‘great’ player that year.

Now, the others were very good. But what made this team great was that it was a true team — the whole was greater than the sum of its parts.

jsl165

Well, the infamous Barry funk was the following year, in the WCF against the Suns. But it soured me on Barry forever; simply inexcusable — and the epitome of what the ’75 team wasn’t: me-first-ism.

Peter Moto

the only chaff falling that was contra-kerr was the nonsense over his alleged dissent about throwing thompson into the love ransom. virtually nothing is known about his coaching (actual, not his talk about it), except a losing, brief summer league stint.

the talk about him using some triple post derived plays is also just talk until we see what’s on the court. luke walton has ø experience coaching and is hardly comparable to putting t.winter on Chi’s staff — winter was one of the principal architects of the triple post. kerr has to avoid forcing any round pegs into triangular mounts ; neither ezeli nor speights is suited as a center in a triple post system, and kerr has already said he’d use speights at the five. o.t.o.h., green, iguodala, livingston could easily serve as ball handling wings in one of the three posts, whereas barnes would be better as a 4. if kerr gets too ambitious installing sets his players have to force, he’ll only prolong the ailment they’re trying to address, the turnovers.

Camelot

Parsons vs Harden- Texas trash talking early..

jsl165

If you don’t think this team is going to the playoffs — regardless of regular season win total — well, there’s really no hope for you.

teams that make players like howard, harden, love their highest paid ‘leaders’ deserve what they get. Chi or Cle would put love in a supporting role, which is his appropriate capacity.

Mopedelic

Whenever I start feeling optimistic about the warriors or feeling good about its coaches, from office or players, all I need to take care of my ailment is to read Mr. Moto. Et voila, cured!

At least for a while, until the parasitic idea of optimism comes back.

jsl165

Let’s see, you’re citing a ‘terrific piece’ from a national media source? No new information referenced, tho. Wonder how that one will turn out? Hmmmm.

Well, Son, I guess it’s good to try to ‘keep hope alive’ — if you’re still unconvinced a Lee-Klay for Love-Martin trade wouldn’t be a death-knell for the Dubs as we know them.

jsl165

Bry: If one simply loves Love to death — no pun intended — and can easily disregard all the negatives, don’t mind losing your best two-way player and the one guy who can stop guard penetration, and even swallow the $22MM Martin poison in an easy gulp, well, no amount of reason will be able to overcome your Love love.

He becomes the end in itself. All else matters naught.

Camelot

I call it producers or stat stuffers, it doesn’t always = winners.

James Online

Makes complete sense except to those so dug in on their “don’t trade Klay” position that they deny Love, climate change, and evolution.

Bryan Hsiao

wtf are you talking about?

Do you want Love or Murphy. Makes up your mind.

sartre

Thanks for the link, SoA. I similarly weigh the relative strengths and weaknesses of the players involved and share the writer’s incredulous response to the Dubs making Thompson the sticking point and risking other teams subsequently outbidding them – which appears to have happened. I respect that others do not agree, clearly including key advisers within the Dubs FO, but I’ve never before found myself standing so far outside what appears the predominant take on this board with respect to a potential franchise defining decision point.

Eric Eiserloh

Barry had a difficult personality which hampered his legacy. The modern equivalent is someone like Kobe, who has acted in a similar way more than once during the course of his career, though I’m not sure I would call it “me first” so much as follow the leader and play the way I expect you to.

The team that lost to Phoenix had more talent than the one the year before, but they didn’t have the same humility or maturity, as the younger guys no longer lived in the shadow of the vets on that team, at least in part because most of them were better players, but not quite experienced enough to know how to win a tough playoff series

Eric Eiserloh

Gus Williams was a rookie on that team, and became an al star soon after leaving. Phil Smith was also an all star, who might have been much more if he didn’t blow out his knee.
They also got Parrish a year or two later, and were a very talented, but young bunch (aside fromBarry) who were never allowed to develop together

willow

Yes, his thoughts certainly are the cure for any unbridled optimism!

Bryan Hsiao

This is for RickP, There are many other factors in measuring defense.

DHoward effect (Bogut effect as well) : where the opponents become less contented to go at the rim with certain interior defenders.

In short, opponents see Lee, their eyes light up and go inside more. Lee also does not stay close enough to his man (below average on shots defended)
And when Lee came close enough to defend (within 5 feet of the opponent), he is 3rd worst for big men. (out of 97 bigs)

See there are other stats/non-stats that you are not looking into. Maybe you really should pay synergysports to get all these data.

“Overall, NBA shooters make 49.7% of their field goal attempts when qualifying interior defender is within 5 feet of the basket… we found that Phoenix’s Luis Scola and Golden State’s David Lee were the worst defenders in these situations.
With Lee within 5 feet of the basket opponents shot 61% on close range shots”

“With Lee protecting the basket, opponents seem to attack the rim more often. While the NBA average of close range shots is 57.2%, with Lee within five feet of the rim that number is 60.3%.”

Lee was slightly below average in the total number of shots defended, ranking 57th of the 93 qualifying big men. However when you look at the field goal percentage on those, again things are not pretty. Lee allowed shooters to make 53% of their shots when he was within five feet of them which was the third worst mark.”

monsta

First time this year Johnson provided relief to anyone

Though, truth, my heart goes out to the guy, he’s like everyone else he just doesn’t know what happened

RaiderE

Yaaaaawnnnnn….

strummer

Could it also be the Curry effect?

monsta

Great pickup and post, love Mr. Green in the Half-Court with the Lead Pipe. In some ways he’s like Adam’s favorite old-time Warrior Larry Smith. Maybe it’s time to break out the hard hats again.

I don’t really see what Green has to do with Love, unless Lee breaks down and Draymond takes over most of the PF minutes and you’re saying you’d rather have Draymond than Love. I personally think DGreen could play alongside Love really well, just the way he plays alongside Lee.

strummer

Couldn’t one figure that this is why SL is on the team? (re your last sentence).

jsl165

Well, I’d call Kobe a me-firster, too; arguably, what Barry would say he was attempting to do in the ’76 WCF’s was, simply, ‘follow the leader and play the way I expect you to.’

Totally agree with your second graph, EE

Bryan Hsiao

Sartre, I would take Love over Lee anytime. Love over Lee+Barnes.
Love for Lee+Klay is hard to justify since losing Klay without getting a SG starter back is trouble.

Love+Martin for Lee+Klay becomes harder to accept. Having Martin starting (7M per better start) is trouble. Having Dre at SG may work (with Green at SF) ..

See I do not really go against getting Love. Getting love with more gains than losses is the key since Love holds the key.

I will be okay if he goes to Cavs though.

jsl165

Superficially, perhaps — since neither is, to use Jax’s term, an ‘elite’ defender.

The key difference is that Curry is always trying to improve; indeed, his D was noticeably better last season; I expect it’ll become even better this year, especially as Kerr draws the reins on the cross-matching.

Steph is always working on various aspects of his game. Last off-season, he focused on penetration — and by season’s end he’d become one of the better penetrators around. The year before, it was his handles: same result.

This year it’s TO reduction and defense. My bet is it won’t take long before we see the difference in his game. He’ll never be elite; but he might just become pretty good.

Love, on the other hand, seems to show the same indifference to D that is so obvious in Harden. I expect neither will ever achieve even mediocrity on that side of the ball; it’s not their ‘thing’ really.

Love’s terrible transition D — something you’ll rarely see with Curry — is just the most obvious, and easily demonstrable, weakness. But, save for leaving his man to get position for defensive RBs, Love is quite bad in everything on D. And is almost certain to remain that way.