Why 2019 will be pivotal for new LNG supply and markets

Critical investment decisions will impact on the global demand balance

As a new decade approaches, developments during 2019 look likely to resolve some of the major uncertainties surrounding the development of the LNG business over the medium term - which in turn will largely determine its long-term trajectory.

Key questions, answers to which are explored in a breakfast briefing and new report from law firm DLA Piper, include:

Will 2019 see the expected stampede to sanction new supply projects?

What will be the respective roles of natural gas and LNG in a decarbonising world?

As LNG supply continues its strong growth, where are the key markets?

How sustainable is China's spectacular LNG import growth?

DLA Piper's Global LNG Report 2019: a Review of Demand, Supply and Financing Issues concludes that we are likely to see several new LNG supply projects launched this year, following the recent Golden Pass final investment decision (FID). However, while there is a long list of individually credible projects that could reach FID - with total liquefaction capacity of over 230 million tonnes/year - there is room in the market for only a fraction of them. What are the factors that will drive success?

As for market growth, over the medium term it will be an expansion of existing markets - especially China - that will be the key determinant. But growth cannot be taken for granted. We are seeing in Egypt, for example, that LNG's flexibility means it sometimes will play a temporary role in meeting supply shortages and then disappear from the gas supply mix. It remains to be seen how global supply and demand will balance in 2019.