Grammy Predictions

February 5, 2006|Sean Piccoli Pop Music Writer

ALBUM OF THE YEAR: Grammy voters won't shut the covers on Mariah Carey's storybook run. The once-besieged diva's comeback, The Emancipation of Mimi, was the best-selling album of 2005. And Carey is overdue for some peer appreciation. The owner of more than a dozen No.1 singles dating to 1990 has only two Grammys to date, both handed out in 1991. So Mimi wins over Kanye West's Late Registration, Paul McCartney's Chaos and Creation in the Backyard, U2's How to Dismantle an Atomic Bomb and Gwen Stefani's Love.Angel.Music.Baby. Mimi also wins contemporary r&b album.

RECORD OF THE YEAR: Goes to the performer, producer, engineer and/or mixer of a song. Carey's We Belong Together has obvious sentimental appeal, not to mention the ring of familiarity that only comes from endless airplay. As the pacesetter for the entire Carey renovation project, it outpolls Feel Good Inc. by Gorillaz and De La Soul, Boulevard of Broken Dreams by Green Day, Hollaback Girl by Stefani and Gold Digger by West. We Belong Together also takes female r&b vocal performance and r&b song. Look for Carey, with eight nominations, to collect five Grammys.

SONG OF THE YEAR: Goes to the songwriter. We Belong Together is nominated but soul singer John Legend, a Kanye West protM-igM-i, is a good upset candidate for his single Ordinary People, also besting Bruce Springsteen's Devils and Dust, U2's Sometimes You Can't Make It On Your Own and Rascal Flatts' Bless the Broken Road. The only other real possibility is a flip: Carey gets song of the year, after all, and Legend gets r&b song as consolation.

BEST NEW ARTIST: Legend has the kind of old-school, traditional instincts that Grammy voters applauded in Norah Jones. Legend walks to the podium. Ciara, Fall Out Boy, Keane and SugarLand go home. Legend's debut, Get Lifted, wins r&b album over competition including one of his more evident influences, Stevie Wonder. The Legend track Stay With You bests Carey's Mine Again for traditional r&b vocal performance. All told, Legend leaves the Staples Center four Grammys heavier.

POP VOCAL ALBUM: Sir Paul will do the un-knightly thing here and wrest the trophy from the four women competing against him. Chaos and Creation tops the Stefani album, Kelly Clarkson's Breakaway, Sheryl Crow's Wildflower and Fiona Apple's Extraordinary Machine.

COUNTRY ALBUM: Faith Hill's Fireflies owes a debt to Gretchen Wilson, who showed Nashville's Cosmo divas they could trade their evening dresses for denim. Country fans bought into Hill's ballyhooed return to her country-girl roots and so will Grammy voters. Fireflies wins over a field including Wilson's All Jacked Up, and Hill's single Mississippi Girl wins female country vocal performance over Wilson's rowdy album title track. She ought to thank Wilson in her acceptance speeches. Toby Keith wins male country vocal performance for the witty Good As I Once Was. The Rascal Flatts hit Bless the Open Road wins country song for its three authors, one of whom is Nitty Gritty Dirty Band co-founder Jeff Hanna.

RAP ALBUM: 50 Cent's The Massacre did more business, but West's Late Registration was no retail slouch and wound up atop several critics' best-of lists for 2005. West, who won this category last year for his debut, repeats the feat, edging "Fitty," Missy Elliott (The Cookbook), Common (Be) and Eminem (Encore). West's Gold Digger also wins rap solo performance. West has eight nominations. He'll win three, including his share as a credited producer on Carey's album of the year. 50 Cent bounces back with rap song (Candy Shop).

ROCK ALBUM: The Rolling Stones' A Bigger Bang, while not brilliant by Stones standards, is strong enough to charm Grammy voters. The Stones outrun one peer, Neil Young (Prairie Wind) and three juniors: U2, Foo Fighters (In Your Honor) and Coldplay (X&Y). Agitprop quartet System of a Down wins hard rock performance for B.Y.O.B. The Arcade Fire's Funeral, a haunting but life-affirmingly gorgeous work, takes alternative music album.