Still, it’s pretty simple. Under his current deal, Nelson is due $6.2M guaranteed over the next two seasons. But…

* Nelson wants to re-negotiate the deal to give him $10.2Mguaranteed (or something close) over the same period, and he’s silently threatening not to go to training camp in October if he doesn’t get it.

* The Warriors’ last offer, made last week, is $5.1M guaranteed this year and a team option for $5.1M the next year.

That means management gets to wait until the end of this season before deciding if it wants to commit the extra $5.1M to Nellie and Nellie has to wait. (But he becomes a free agent if they don’t commit.)

The offer: More money than his current deal in the short term, less money than his current deal in the long term, more freedom for both sides.

Nellie, being Nellie, wants more $ in the short and long term and doesn’t give two hoots about the Warriors’ freedom, so we have the standoff, possibly headed to a climax in the next week or so.

What happens now? I think, in large part, public sentiment over the next few days and weeks–or the perception of public sentiment–will have a determinate effect.

Basically, two scenarios:

-Scenario 1: Warriors fans rush to Nelson’s side and refuse to accept any explanation for his potential absence–who do the Warriors trot out as coach in October, Keith Smart? The message: Just pay the savior!

If the Warriors feel public pressure to haul in Nelson, despite the simple fact that he’s pulling this stunt only one-third of the way through a three-year deal, the GSWs might have to do away with that team option and immediately guarantee Nelson $8M, $9M or even $10M over the next two seasons.

Scenario 2: Nelson doesn’t get a big public outcry; in fact, there’s a backlash–who’s he to choke off the franchise’s best run just because he needs to top off his already loaded coffers? Message: Hold firm, Warriors.

If Nelson starts to worry about messing up the good thing he has going here, he might sense that his reputation, already shaky when it comes to the Gimme-$$$ Factor, might never recover from this cash grab.

Again: Complicated. So, as always, I’m here to offer a handy guide to picking a side in Nellie vs. Warriors…

PRO NELLIE/

* He saved the Warriors from 12 years of horridness. That’s a big one. So if he wants more money, it’s not nice, but he deserves it just because he proved his singular worth in the last 12 months.

* Nellie’s style of play is unique, but tremendous entertainment and successful at the same time. How can you beat that?

* Again: There’s nobody else to coach this team at this important point in franchise history.

* The Warriors knew what they were getting in this guy. Not only did they watch him do battle with Mark Cuban and the New York Knicks before this, Cohan actually fired him and was sued by him 13 years ago. This is what he does, this is the cost of doing business with him, he delivered, and now Cohan has to pay the cost.

* Cohan has paid his players well, but isn’t known for being a tremendously generous owner otherwise. This is the ultimate test.

* Nelson’s not asking for the moon–or $7M, like Isiah Thomas gets. He just wants the incentives in his original deal ($1M for playoffs, etc.) to be turned into guaranteed money. No big deal!

* He’s done due dilgence this summer, diving into the draft (Marco Belinelli is a Nellie special), hammering down great contracts (Matt Barnes, good-bye Adonal Foyle), tinkering with the roster (Austin Croshere).

* If he leaves or gets angry while staying, what happens to Baron Davis, who is facing his own contract situation? Or Monta Ellis? Or Stephen Jackson? Who would you want to work that locker room?

* If he walks away, you think he’ll be jobless? Sure, he won’t be able to coach for the length of the original deal–two more seasons. But he can get a job as GM. He can be a pain in the Warriors’ butt, just as he was to the Mavericks.

Then, in two years, he can coach again. And what have the Warriors gained?

* When you come down to it: Don Nelson or Chris Cohan, what does your gut tell you?

PRO HARD-LINE/

* This is just ethically wrong–Nellie signed a deal a year ago, and anything the Warriors do is above and beyond what’s necessary.

* If he didn’t like the deal when he signed it a year ago, why did he sign it? He’s no neophyte. He’s exactly who he is: A smart, savvy businessman. Why let him take advantage of this situation?

* It’s not like he was going to give back any money if he didn’t make the playoffs last year.

* Nellie earned an extra $2M in bonuses last year for making the playoffs and advancing a round. He could do it again this year–why is he so worried about guaranteeing money that he could earn anyway?

* It’s possible that Nelson doesn’t think he can do it again, given Davis’ sketchy health, SJax’s emotion and other variables that all came together perfectly last March and April.

Cuban said it last spring: Nellie only likes it when he’s an underdog and doesn’t like the pressure of expectation.

Is Nelson setting up a fire-me scenario so he doesn’t have to endure a possible blow-up and yet still collects all his money?

* What’s this say about his loyalty to Chris Mullin? If Nelson’s really ready to walk over money–while under contract–it doesn’t say good things.

* How much longer is he going to coach this team, anyway? Nobody wants to go through this again next summer, but even if the Warriors take care of him now, what keeps him from doing it one more time in 2008?

* He likes the Bay Area, his wife loves the Bay Area, he has players he wants, why would he walk away? Just for spite? He probably wouldn’t do that.

* He’d also be walking away either from $6.2M guaranteed (the old deal) or $5.1M guaranteed this year (new offer)… and Nellie has never walked away from money.

He’ll probably be very hissy about coming back for less than he wanted, but he’d probably be hissy unless he got 105% of what he demanded. That’s just what gives him his edge–why deny him that emotional edge?

* Nellie works best with incentives. Why let him slack off by giving everything up front?

* This is poker. Nellie understands that. He has a good hand. The Warriors have the ultimate hand. It isn’t time to fold yet.

* Cohan doesn’t need to collapse just because Nellie is a brilliant tactician. Cohan has a bad image, but he has paid money for a lot of things. He can take the PR hit. Well, maybe. Possibly. That’s the theory, anyway.

THE COMPROMISE SIDE: My dumb proposal/

I can type and type and type about the two sides, but obviously, there’s room for a compromise agreement. Incredible room, if everybody doesn’t get all huffy.

With this much at stake, huffiness is bad. And it’s idiotic.

Some jottings for the outline of a possible compromise agreement…

* This year: $5.1M. It’s already agreed to. Done.

* Warriors guarantee his 2008-09 contract for $2.5M if Nelson reports to camp this October. If the Warriors fire him before next season, he still collects $2.5M for 08-09.

(Voila: He has $7.6M guaranteed if he reports to camp and he knows the Warriors have a large incentive to keep him for the third year.)

* Nelson grants the Warriors an additional $3M team option for 08-09, which they must exercise or waive on the last day of the 07-08 regular season.

If they exercise it, Nelson will be paid $10.5M over the next two seasons.

(This gives Nelson an incentive to behave and win this year–he wants the Warriors to keep him around another year so he can get that extra $3M. But if the Warriors want to dump him, they’re only into him for another $2.5M. Their total guaranteed out-lay isn’t a great deal more than under his previous deal–but it’s not less, either.)

Like it? Yeah, I don’t think anybody–even Nellie’s friends–can totally be on his side, given his unique contract status and over-abundant wiliness.

And I don’t think anybody–even Warrior loyalists–would totally understand the Warriors walking away from Nellie, given his unique ability and stature in this area.

Compromise! If I can do it, anybody can do it. And if it still doesn’t work, Keith Smart and I will begin talks immediately.