Tropical Depression SIXTEEN-E (Text)

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162014
800 PM PDT FRI SEP 12 2014
Tropical Depression Sixteen-E has become poorly organized this
evening. Deep convection is limited to an amorphous blob on the
western side of the increasingly elongated low-level wind center.
The initial intensity for this advisory has been held at 30 kt based
on the Dvorak classification from TAFB. The recent disruption of
the circulation is primarily due to the proximity of the depression
to Tropical Storm Odile, located about 800 n mi to the east. As a
result, the environment around the depression consists of increasing
wind shear in the vertical and horizontal. The environment is
expected to become even more unfavorable while the depression moves
closer to Odile. All of the global and regional dynamical models
forecast that the depression will open up into a trough within 36
hours, and some suggest that this could occur much sooner than that.
The cyclone is beginning to accelerate toward the east and the
initial motion is 110/05. The models remain in good agreement that
the depression, or its remnants, will accelerate toward Odile on a
nearly straight line until dissipation. No substantial changes
were made to the track forecast.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 13/0300Z 16.6N 118.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 13/1200Z 16.4N 117.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 14/0000Z 16.0N 115.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 14/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Zelinsky/Beven
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