Jul 24, 2017

The data this week is
expected to confirm what many investors have come to assume. The
US economy accelerated in Q2. The eurozone economy is enjoying steady
growth, but the momentum appears to be slowing. The UK economy was unable
to recover much after a soft Q1. The Japanese economy is still not
generating price pressures, but growth, led by the export/industrial production
capex, is also fueling somewhat better consumption.

The Federal Reserve meeting
is not live in the sense that anyone expects a change in the policy of any
kind. For reasons beyond our ken, the
Federal Reserve insists on making changes only at the half of the FOMC meetings
which are followed by a press conference. Since there are several workarounds,
including, as we have suggested, holding press conferences after every
meeting, which the ECB and BOJ already do, for example.

In any event, the market
understands full well where the Fed is. It is getting close to
allowing its balance sheet to begin shrinking. After raising rates in
March and June, officials are not ready to go again: Not in July and not
September. December is a closer call. The softer price pressures
rather than, the weaker growth impulses become the focal point in Q2. It
will take a few months of data to assuage these concerns. The main
argument that what the headwind on prices is transitory seems to assume that
decline in prices is narrow. Breadth indicators of price changes,
therefore, be more important than usual in the current context. Sure
enough, the diffusion indicators for the CPI were narrow, until the recent June
reading.

When the balance sheet issue
was being discussed, NY Fed President Dudley suggested that the central bank
may have a brief pause in its efforts to normalize the Fed funds target rate
around the time that it decides to begin allowing the balance sheet to
shrink. This still seems the most likely
scenario. Given the apparent consensus to begin not reinvesting in full the
proceeds from maturing issues sooner rather than later, the September FOMC
meeting is a compelling venue to make such an announcement. Deferring a
rate decision until the December meeting, by which time the inflation picture
may clarify, seems prudent.

One of the consequences of
this scenario is that it would allow Fed officials to talk more about why the
core inflation measures have weakened. An FOMC statement that
does not show more puzzlement, if not a concern, risks a more dramatic reaction
a couple of days later when the first estimate of Q2 GDP is reported. The
GDP price deflator is expected to slow to 1.3% from 1.9%, and, potentially of
greater importance; the core PCE deflator may slow more dramatically–to below
1% from 2.0% in Q1. At the same time, these GDP figures are reported, the
US will release its Q2 estimate for Employment Cost Index, a broader measure of
labor costs (includes wages and benefits), which is also expected to show no
acceleration in what is understood to be a key driver of core inflation.

US earnings season kicks into
high gear with nearly 20% of the S&P 500 reporting in the week ahead. Among
the highlights include Amazon, Facebook, Alphabet, Caterpillar, GM, and
Chipotle. With about a third already reporting, it appears that earnings growth
is on track for around a 10% pace. Fund managers who push back against
claims that the market is overvalued point to the strong earnings growth
underpinning prices. Despite investors’ preference for European shares
over the US, we note that the S&P 500 has begun outperforming the Dow Jones
Stoxx 600–5.75% over the past three months.

Meanwhile, the summer drama
will continue in Washington, as President Trump’s son, son-in-law and former
campaign manager are set to testify before Senate committees next week.
News that Exxon was fined $2 mln last week for violating sanctions against
Russia, while Secretary of State Tillerson was the CEO is an additional
distraction from the economic agenda that is beginning to press. Leaving
aside health care reform, the infrastructure initiative, and tax reform, the
constraints of the debt ceiling are already evident in the T-bill market, and
the FY2018 fiscal year begins in a little more than two months.

ECB President Draghi signaled
that central bank would reconsider policy at the September meeting when
officials return from summer holidays, and new staff forecasts will be
available. Draghi’s suggestion that the market
over-interpreted his “reflation” comment at the Sintra conference implies that
the ECB may have been somewhat surprised by the market’s reaction.
Nevertheless, Draghi showed barely any concern about the rise in European
interest rates and the euro’s appreciation.

Money supply growth (M3) is
expected to have expanded at a steady pace of 5% over the past year. through
June. The Bank Lending Survey, released on July
18, confirmed that improvement in credit conditions. Lending is slowly
improving, and there has been a small pickup in demand from non-financial
businesses. The flash PMI for the eurozone will also be released.
It is expected to soften slightly.

Country-data may be more
interesting than the aggregate data. In particular,
Germany, France, and Spain offer preliminary looks at July inflation. On
a monthly basis, consumer prices may have eased, but the year-over-year rates
are expected to be little changed at 1.4%, 0.8%, and 1.6% respectively.
Only the German reading is changed from the June pace and by 0.1%
at that.

France and Spain also report
early estimates of Q2 GDP. A 0.5% quarterly
expansion in France would lift the year-over-year rate to 1.6% from 1.1%, which
would be the quickest pace since Q3 11. Spain’s economic growth remains among
the strongest in the OECD. A 0.9% Q2 expansion would translate to a
little more than a 3% year-over-year pace.

The German 10-year Bund yield
will begin the new week carrying over a six-day decline. The
yield has returned to the breakout level of 50 bp. The technical
indicators of the September 10-year Bund futures contract warn of additional gains
(lower yields) in the period ahead. We suspect there is potential toward
40 bp.

The UK reports Q2 GDP. It
is expected to remain lackluster. After a 0.2% pace in Q1, the British
economy may have expanded by 0.3% in Q2. Still, the year-over-year pace
would still slow from 2.0% in Q1 to 1.7%. A weak US dollar environment
may conceal sterling’s underlying weakness. Since the middle of the
month, it has depreciated two percent on a trade-weighted basis. The euro
has returned to the GBP0.9000 area, having had finished Q1 below GBP0.8500.
Sterling also appears to be rolling over against the yen. It was
turned back from JPY148 around the middle of the month, which is where turned
from in May as well. Sterling fell every day last week against the yen,
and technical potential extends toward JPY144.

The market will likely learn
very little from Japan next week. Headline
inflation and the core rate, which excludes fresh food, likely remained
unchanged in June at 0.4%. However, excluding fresh food and energy, the
rate may have dipped to -0.1% from zero. Contrary to the claims, the
truly stable price environment does not necessarily preclude consumption.
In fact, if the consensus is right, overall household spending will turn
positive for the first time since in 16 months. Meanwhile, the labor market
remains tight. The unemployment rate is expected to tick down to 3.0%
from 3.1%, and the jobs-to-applicant ratio may edge higher.

Lower yields would seem to
favor the yen playing some catch-up. The dollar fell
0.7% against the yen before the weekend, its largest single-day decline since
early June. There is scope for a third consecutive week of a little more
than 1% fall, which would take the dollar toward JPY110. The euro may
have reversed lower against the yen before the weekend after having found
offers in front of the high seen earlier this month.

OPEC’s monitoring committee
meets in Russia at the beginning of the week. Private
estimates point to increased OPEC output, not all of which is coming from
Libya and Nigeria, which were excluded from the quotas. Efforts to coax
them into capping output seem to have fallen on fallow fields. Ecuador’s
decision to drop out of the quota system, though not significant in terms, it
is a timely reminder that the agreement to cut output is finite, fragile, and
does not appear to be particularly effective.

This is another recent recommendation from our research team from the Tata Group companies. This company is into brand businesses of tea, coffee and water. Some of you already know Tata tea brands and himalayan drinking water brand. The most interesting development for the company happened in last two years when it tied up with Starbucks and now. The joint venture reported 235 cr topline last year and yes it is making losses but decreasing losses every year with only 20 cr loss this year.Starbucks as we know is 'tha McDonalds' of coffee world and tata global beverages is set to gain massively in terms of revenue and bottomline from this jv in next 5-10 years apart from its slow growing tea, coffee, water business. So, this was the 'starbucks angle'.The market valuation revision angle.- The Indian stock markets has started to value FMCG firms, especially now after the GST era; very seriously and clearly above the average of last 20 years. This company was totally left out on that front. It was may be being a so called 'commodity heavy' company so far and now we beileve with the strong financials, tata group name and the lack of strong established company stocks, mutual funds will rush to increase their stake in such firms. We like this revaluation angle more than any other angle.On the technical front, clearly the stock has not been a 'blockbuster' in any sense.It risen almost zero percent in last 5 years. It made strong base at 100 which is not to be broken unless market crash comes. It made another 120 strong support, and now trying to cross its lifetime high of above 170 third time, after failing to do so in 2013, and 2014.With Mistry saga behind the Tatas, and a high performing man of excellent background at leadership of the group we believe this stock is set to soar and cross the high and once this is done, we believe it will open the sky for the stock to double in 1-2 years only.Also, TGB holds about 57% of Tata Coffee, a listed firm which amounts to about 1400 cr Rs. stake at current price of the stock.We do not like the commodity business personally, neither the tea, coffee plantations etc. But the above angles with Tata brands name on it. Apart from it, there is a lot of space in many FMCG products segment especially the tea, coffee space to have many more brands to become bigger apart from the present scenario where the top slots are already occupied by the MNCs. On the Price/Earnings ratio front also, it is not unfair, if the firm starts commanding a PE of 20 plus in a bull market.

This is only a brief commentary; you can contact us for complete research, analysis and view on the stock.

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Disclaimer: We or our clients may be holding positions in one or more or all of the stocks recommended by us.

Go check out our site for details or email us or call us for detailed discussion.

Jul 20, 2017

1. Amount of capital to use: Divide your
capital into 10 equal parts and never risk more than one-tenth of your capital
on any one trade.

2.
Use stop loss orders. Always protect a trade.

3.
Never overtrade. This would be violating your capital rules.

4.
Never let a profit run into a loss. After you once have a profit raise your
stop loss order so that you will have no loss of capital.

5.
Do not buck the trend. Never buy or sell if you are not sure of the trend
according to your charts and rules.

6.
When in doubt, get out and don’t get in when in doubt.

7.
Trade only in active markets. Keep out of slow, dead ones.

8.
Equal distribution of risk. Trade in two or three different commodities if
possible. Avoid tying up all your capital in any one commodity.

9.
Never limit your orders or fix a buying or selling price.

10.
Don’t close your trades without a good reason. Follow up with a stop loss order
to protect your profits.

11.
Accumulate a surplus. After you have made a series of successful trades, put
some money into a surplus account to be used only in emergency or in
times of panic.

12.
Never buy or sell just to get a scalping profit.

13.
Never average a loss. This is one of the worst mistakes a trader can make.

14.
Never get out of the market just because you have lost patience or get into the
market because you are anxious from waiting.

15.
Avoid taking small profits and big losses.

16.
Never cancel a stop loss order after you have placed it at the time you make a
trade.

17.
Avoid getting in and out of the market too often.

18.
Be just as willing to sell short as you are to buy. Let your object be to keep
with the trend and make money.

19.
Never buy just because the price of a commodity is low or sell short just
because the price is high.

20.
Be careful about pyramiding at the wrong time. Wait until the commodity is very
active and has crossed resistance levels before buying more, and until it has
broken out of the zone of distribution before selling more.

21.
Select the commodities that show strong uptrend to pyramid on the buying side
and the ones that show definite downtrend to sell short.

22.
Never hedge. If you are long one commodity and it starts to go down, do not
sell another commodity short to hedge it. Get out at the market: Take your loss
and wait for another opportunity.

23.
Never change your position in the market without a good reason. When you make a
trade, let it be for some good reason, or according to some definite rule; then
do not get out without a definite indication of a change in trend.

24.
Avoid increasing your trading after a long period of success or a period of
profitable trades.

The Asian Development Bank on Thursday upgraded
its outlook for emerging Asia’s growth rate of gross domestic product for this
year to 5.9% from the previous figure of 5.7%, citing better-than-estimated
Chinese economic growth.

The GDP growth rates in 2015 and 2016 were 6.0%
and 5.8%, respectively.

The key driver for the upgrade is China, up 0.2
points to 6.7%, backed by increased domestic consumption and exports. The
Chinese government earlier announced that January-June GDP growth was 6.9%.

The previous outlook was published in April. On
Thursday, the ADB also upgraded the growth outlook for 2018 to 5.8% from 5.7%.

The ADB’s outlook covers 45 countries and
regions in the Asia-Pacific region, and excludes developed nations.

We have been giving out a lot of realty sector recommendations over the last 6 months which are mostly doing very greatly. The main reasons being demonetization, then the introduction of real estate law RERA and now GST. We strongly believe that the froth from the real estate sector is getting removed and the frontline companies, the old leaders of the sector are going to lead the rally in stock market as well. Among them are the Indiabulls Real Estate, DLF and Unitech are the main ones. Yes, some of the newly listed midcap players are also racing with this big boys in terms of topline trying to net sales of 1000 crores and more. The real estate companies have been trying very hard to pare debt and try to get maximum benefit of the new modi-era economic boom in the country. Unitech has been in the news for all the wrong reasons over the last 6 years and more. After rising to 500 levels in 2008 bubble from its 20 Rs levels, the stock crashed to 20 again and has been trading as a penny stock since almost last 9 years, excepting a couple of years when it traded at 100 levels.We first recommended the stock at Rs.5 just before 1 month. It has risen 70% since then. We strongly recommend to buy few thousand shares and put them away for 3-5 years for 10-20 bagger return. Cash in once you get 10 bagger. A 50000 investment will become 5 lakh which you could use for a Europe tour or asia tour with your family or buy a new car in next 2 years.The fundamentals are turning around for good and the company along with all real estate firms are getting 'good' on the back of the threatening environment being created by Modi government for wilful defaulters. The promoter of the firms are almost out of the 2G scam issues and the issues with Telenor group are also sorted out. At Rs.5-10 the stock is not at all expensive while investing with the clear perspective of results as given above.

This is only a brief commentary; you can contact us for complete research, analysis and view on the stock.

Join one of our services for getting regular trading calls in all segments like equity stock cash intraday, positional, index options, index futures, stock futures, stock options and intraday and positional in all of the segments with high accurate less calls with small stoploss and bigger target with personalized service for tracking your profits/losses with us, that’s what we call assured profit services.

Disclaimer: We or our clients may be holding positions in one or more or all of the stocks recommended by us.

Go check out our site for details or email us or call us for detailed discussion.

After crashing to 20 levels post 2008 global financial crisis led crash in the market, this stock has been steady within a range of 100 and 150 over the 10 years. It has broker out above 176 in the last months of 2016, given another break out above 220 and now ready break out again above 270 levels.We expect the stock to double first and then rise 50% more. Talking about the fundamentals, the company is the holding and listed retail arm of the Tata group. The company financial has been steadily rising over the last 5 years and it has taken expansion of its activities with TESCO and has good growth and expansion plans.It owns the Westsides stores and Star bazaar hyper markets among other. The co. has doubled its sales in last 5 years without increasing the capital.Profitability has been very impressive over the past 5 years and now with the housing and credit theme becoming prominent the retail mall space is going to get very good attention especially with the profit making companies having strong group brand like Tata.

This is only a brief commentary; you can contact us for complete research, analysis and view on the stock.

Join one of our services for getting regular trading calls in all segments like equity stock cash intraday, positional, index options, index futures, stock futures, stock options and intraday and positional in all of the segments with high accurate less calls with small stoploss and bigger target with personalized service for tracking your profits/losses with us, that’s what we call assured profit services.

Disclaimer: We or our clients may be holding positions in one or more or all of the stocks recommended by us.

Go check out our site for details or email us or call us for detailed discussion.

This is yet another strong recommendation from NBFC space which is buzzing these days and has been investment theme for last two years of this bull market at least, and likely to remain among the top 5 themes over the next 3 years at least.The company saw a massive erosion in topline during 2014-15-16 from its 2000 crore levels which it improved substantially in the CY 2017. However the company managed to maintain EPS level and equity level is also steady.On the technical chart during 2010 the stock ran up to 160 from 20 Rs. in the wake of the rise in stock market. Since 2011 it has been very very slowly but steadily rising from 20 levels in a strong uptrending base building for over 6 years and given strong break out above 40 and ready to give yet another breakout above 80 levels in matter of days.

This is only a brief commentary; you can contact us for complete research, analysis and view on the stock.

Join one of our services for getting regular trading calls in all segments like equity stock cash intraday, positional, index options, index futures, stock futures, stock options and intraday and positional in all of the segments with high accurate less calls with small stoploss and bigger target with personalized service for tracking your profits/losses with us, that’s what we call assured profit services.

Disclaimer: We or our clients may be holding positions in one or more or all of the stocks recommended by us.

Go check out our site for details or email us or call us for detailed discussion.

This is a Reliance Industries Ltd group company and operated many news channels including the no.1 business channel CNBC TV 18.The same group company TV18 BROADCAST LTD is also listed on BSE and trading at 40 Rs. with lifetime high of above 200. We have buy recommendation of mid to long term on this stock too. Remember this stocks are momentum stocks if you are looking at short to mid term play. So active advice relating to entry and profit booking is necessary. As you can clearly see the stock is trying to break out above its 5 year resistance level of 80 and after that it will try to rise to 160 and then towards its life time high of 550 levels. We expect tgt of 80 in few weeks and then 160 level in 12-24 months.To benefit from this move, when and what price to buy for fast movement and how to profit from options call buying and futures trading in this stock you can contact us.

This is only a brief commentary; you can contact us for complete research, analysis and view on the stock.

Join one of our services for getting regular trading calls in all segments like equity stock cash intraday, positional, index options, index futures, stock futures, stock options and intraday and positional in all of the segments with high accurate less calls with small stoploss and bigger target with personalized service for tracking your profits/losses with us, that’s what we call assured profit services.

Disclaimer: We or our clients may be holding positions in one or more or all of the stocks recommended by us.

Go check out our site for details or email us or call us for detailed discussion.

This is only a brief commentary; you can contact us for complete research, analysis and view on the stock.

Join one of our services for getting regular trading calls in all segments like equity stock cash intraday, positional, index options, index futures, stock futures, stock options and intraday and positional in all of the segments with high accurate less calls with small stoploss and bigger target with personalized service for tracking your profits/losses with us, that’s what we call assured profit services.

Disclaimer: We or our clients may be holding positions in one or more or all of the stocks recommended by us.

Go check out our site for details or email us or call us for detailed discussion.

India gold imports in H1, 2017
greater than all of 2016. India imported 521 tonnes of gold in first
half of 2017. H1
figure for gold imports $22.2 Bln versus $23 Bln in all ’16. Gold demand was up 15% year- on-year in the
first quarter. June gold imports climbed to an estimated 75
tonnes from 22.7 tonnes a year ago. Annual total set to surpass 900 tons,
strongest year since ’12.“I trust gold more than
the currencies of countries” –
63% of Indians in Survey.

Governments
are oftentimes poor judges, giving passes to those big enough to pay
a legal settlement. Do your homework and make sure your money is in good
hands.

The
best trading strategy ideas are on websites that lack images of Ferraris,
sailboats, beaches or mountains.

If
you’re afraid to use it, don’t. Your brain has already pronounced the
outcome.

People
that instantly make you feel good usually aren’t the ones taking you to
the next level.

In
all cases, people, thus prices, are drawn to heavy order flow like
bees to a hive.

When
someone asks you, “what’s the trade logic”? You should be able to answer
in under 30 seconds.

Just
because an entry looks good doesn’t mean everything that follows is going
to be good, too. Trading for one or two ticks on a retail platform is
the ultimate waste of time and money.

Always
work with the end in mind. The best portfolio managers fester
over performance metrics first, because that’s all that matters in the end.

If
you stink at managing risk, you will always lose until you figure this
out.

Drawdown
is another way of saying “you were wrong”. Focus on what’s right about the
situation, not where you went wrong. Look at your valleys and and see
what’s going on there, not your flawed points of entry.

Avoid
money-making buzzwords in the same way you would a psychopath
who’s foaming at the mouth and running after you with a chainsaw.

Commissions,
spreads and fees should be treated like a chronic disease. Learn to live
with them but don’t let them stop you from moving forward.

Writing
a trading plan in your early career is the equivalent of a toddler drawing
a stick figure. Realize it will get better in time but by no means treat
it as an end result.

Trading
plans should be renamed Risk plans. Because that’s all that matters in the
end.

Your
strategy should consist of a parameters that produce a clean return
distribution, with the peak being as long as possible, and the valleys
keeping the strategy afloat during various trading environments.

It
doesn’t matter what you trade or how you trade it. If it works, it works.

If
you can’t get a favorable result with plain Jane parameters, odds are the
exotic ones are going to blow up down the line. This is the epitome of
over-optimization. Parameters need to fall with in a group with specific
ones producing better outcomes than others, but all keeping the ship
afloat.

All
instruments consist of different levels of liquidity. Liquidity drives
more market versus limit orders being used. These have a direct effect on
the types of price movements they exhibit. Treat them all differently,
because they are.

None
of us are born dumb. Society makes us that way.

Funnel
your dopamine addiction to something that adds value, like actionable
research. Clicking buy and sell buttons should not be your “rush”.

Find
a broker that sucks the least.

Find
a wealth manager for your passive portfolio that sucks the least.

Find
an attorney that sucks the least.

Find
a vacation spot that is excellent.

Liquidity
and slippage will always affect performance. If you’re going to trade
it, trade it like you mean it. Hesitate, and these two will come back
to haunt you.

Frequently
go through your performance metrics. If you’re short-term trading, do it
every day.

Don’t
trade any concept that’s new to you for at least a month, up to a year,
depending on its complexity and level of outcomes, contingent on volatility.

Yes,
you’re overthinking it.

Trading
environments effect the performance of all strategies. Over-optimized
strategies are primed for one environment but not the next.

People
get drunk and look terrible when they do. Your strategy is no different.
Treat it like a temple.

High
frequency for retail is hyper-mythology. Those claiming it are usually
using some form of latency arbitrage or spoofing. #1 will get you banned
by your brokers and #2 will get you thrown in jail.

The
most complaints come from people who have no solid reason to complain
about anything.

Brokers
have the easiest jobs in the industry unless they’re getting sued.

Even
when everything looks perfect, there is still going to be an unseen flaw
in the strategy. Don’t pretend to be surprised when it happens.

Yes,
you’re probably wasting your time on that idea.

Exercise.
Because blood flow is important.

Trading
is a skill that is learned, and needs to be done methodically. Those who
swing for the fences usually end up throwing the bat at it instead.

Trading
is not war, a neurological battle, a sport or a reality TV show. Its a
job.

The
blind lead the blind because people want to hang around others they feel
comfortable with.

You
don’t need a PhD or have the ability to write a complex algo to work
successfully. This may not be the case if you’re preparing for corporate
war.

Stop
worrying about finding anomalies or the trading definition of an ego
boost. Nobody in the real world cares unless you put the turkey on the
table.

Your
gut is the best barometer for wise decision-making in all aspects of life.
Performing regular gut checks, and following through on the result, is one
of the best tools for success anyone can ever have.