1. Lower democrat turnout than 2012. No Obama this time means African Americans won't be as motivated. Higher hispanic turnout won't make much difference as they are concentrated in areas Trump won't win anyway.

2. Bernie supporters (the youth vote) will stay home. Especially after the Wikileaks emails released today. Those video game controllers will be hard to put down for Hillary.

3. Hidden Trump support. 21 million registered voters failed to show up in 2012. Most of them white. They will show up this time.

So there you go. I'm out until the election is over. I will come back to gloat.

Or cry.

You forgot one massive point: women's vote. Trump is very unpopular when it comes to women, even less than your standard Republican candidate who struggle to gain over 45% of women's vote. Hillary, on the other side, is more popular toward them than most Democrate candidate. Women represent about half of all electors and while their turnout is usually lower than those of men electors, the presence of a woman in the race (and that of a particularly horrible candidate in the form of Trump/Pence) could lead them to go vote in larger number than usual. Ironically, if the Republican don't solve their image (and policy) issues with women, they might bar themselves from the presidency as women invest themselves more and more in the electoral process.

Unpopular with women? Pfft. He can grab their pussies whenever he wants.

A 55 year old man goes to the doctor for a required physical exam for insurance purposes.
After all the bloodwork, tests, exam, the doc sits down to talk about the results.
"you are in remarkably good health for a man your age. I only have one question, what about your sex life?"
"Oh, I'm single, and it is always the same. Watch some porn, 6 pack of beer, bag of cheetos"