Jim Cantore said there was a slight hint of an Eye forming on the satellite views about 2 hours ago.

It can be seen on the Weather Channel's "dreamsicle" enhancement in the lower right corner. Vague hint of a small Eye.

Using the last two VORTEX positions. They line out at 294degrees at 60sm. Extrapolating that heading out... At this time... 11:23pm EDT would send Ike ashore at Port Lavaca. Which I believe is the location Jim Cantore is broadcasting from.
Hypothetical 100sm radius of hurricane winds would extend from Port Lavaca southward to Kingsville and Northward to the western tip of Galveston Island.

Note: the above is purely a hypothetical track based on the last two Recon center positions.
Please consult your local NWS Office for Statements, Watches and Warnings for Official Hurricane Products.~danielw

just goes to show us.....lot to learn.....why hasn't this exploded to a cat 3 or something like that? Because the power of the hurricane has been washed out via a large powerful radii of windfield. The waters just aren't warm enough to get it to a cat 3 cause of the kinetic energy of all that wind...and all that wind has to be incorporated in the final analysis... Had it been an Andrew.....small buzz saw...perhaps a 4. but the storm exploded in surface area, and therefore...needed a correspondingly large area of energy and heat....and it just wasn't there....

Katrina had much higher heat content in the ocean...

my take on it.....

oh, and why going more west? it isn't spinning like a top......it;s more of a blob.....so the coriolis effect isn't as strong.....

Quote:
Residents living in single-family homes in some parts of coastal Texas face "certain death" if they do not heed orders to evacuate ahead of Hurricane Ike's arrival, the National Weather Service said Thursday night....

Using the surface wind they might bring it up to Cat II, but remember this statement in the morning discussion:

"DATA FROM AIR FORCE AND NOAA AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT IKE IS
MAINTAINING AN ATYPICAL WIND STRUCTURE...CHARACTERIZED BY A VERY
BROAD WIND FIELD WITH MULTIPLE WIND MAXIMA AND RELATIVELY LITTLE
TRANSPORT OF WINDS ALOFT DOWN TO THE SURFACE."

Ike is probably the closest thing to a subtropical hurricane (which doesn't exist in the tropical descriptions) that you'll ever see.
ED

Any low lying storm surge potential areas will be suseptical to deadly conditions. The NHC wants to make that clear! Anyways, I still dont think IKE will be more than a Cat 2 or winds of 105-110mph. The reason is what I said above. The Storm is just too big. The NHC wont mention this until after landfall probably but are still going with a Cat 3 just incase.

Now let me give you a example with the storm size and why its not getting stronger. If you would fill up your sink with water. Put your finger in the sink and spin it around "almost" near the edge of the water at a moderate rotation, see how the water spins. Now do the same thing with the water only half that full. You can
see the water turning quicker 'Even Though' your moving it as the same speed before. Its harder for a storm thats bigger in size to adjust a tight inner core of winds. The winds on a bigger storm are expanded more away from the COC. A smaller storm would mean a tighter spin with the same pressure drop.

I've never in my life seen any government agency, much less the NWS, say that if you don't heed the evacuation orders, you face certain death. Ike is one of the most fascinating storms I have ever witnessed.

Just a general question, proportional to the available heat content of the water and obviously the amount of water and free space, how does Ike relate to the largest cyclones ever recorded? I have to imagine this is the largest tropical cyclone on record to ever be in the Gulf of Mexico.

I am in Sarasota on the water now and I've noticed that the water level crested at one point yesterday at about half a foot to 9 inches below the top of our sea wall (I am at New College of Florida in Sarasota). I've honestly have never seen a storm that has produced this large a change in tide level all the way around the gulf coast. (Did Katrina? My power was knocked out so I don't really remember hearing about abnormal tide levels throughout the entire Gulf coast.)

Ike is clearly pulling itself together tonight. Recent SFMR surface estimates and flight-level winds, combined with a partial eyewall redeveloping - improving internal structure, overall, and especially concerning the central core, suggests that Ike may finally be successfully transforming back into more of a classic tropical cyclone, at least for now. All of this considered together could very well indicate that an increase in the advisory wind speed to Cat 3 is on the way by mid-morning.

It would seem that Ike has taken advantage of improving outflow to its west and northwest, while a very long feeder leg that had been conspiring with everything else to keep the cyclone pretty asymmetrical , has finally broken free of its Caribbean connection, and become just another one of the outer bands.

Over the past five hours or so it looks like Ike has been moving a bit on the western side of WNW. The most recent center fix might indicate a resumption of a more northwesterly track, or it could just be a wobble while this reorganization takes place. The 4AM CDT cone probably won't change much, if at all, and the exact point of landfall doesn't really matter as much as which side of the eye ones location is likely to be on (the heavy surge/strongest winds/ "dirty" right front quadrant, or the sometimes drier/less windy left front).

I basically agree with you, but I see the outer ring as the main player. Inside this outer ring there are only tropical storm force winds and no wind maximum associated with the rests of the old, tight inner core.
I wouldn´t see such a rapid intensification process, but the pressure drop in the last two hours is frightening: 957,5 to 950,7 hPa (I use the HDOB-data here!).

Whoops...off to new thread! Mike posted a new news thread while I was writing this.

--

Original post, which I moved there:

In confirmation with SFMR readings, buoy 42361 (a Shell Oil rig) is measuring 99kt winds 50 miles NNE from the last center fix of Ike. Anemometer is at 122m above the surface, so this isn't really true surface winds.

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