Wyoming at SDSU

The San Diego State football team appears to be headed back to a familiar spot after the season as long as it can avoid multiple upsets in the final six games of 2011.

According to most likely scenarios, the Aztecs (4-2) are a strong bet to return to the San Diego County Credit Union Poinsettia Bowl on Dec. 21. The opponent would be a team from the Western Athletic Conference, quite possibly Nevada.

“That’s not a bad prediction to make at this point,” said Bruce Binkowski, executive director of the Poinsettia Bowl. "I’m not going to say it’s a slam dunk, but it's not off base."

After a bye this weekend, SDSU still needs to win two more games to become bowl-eligible. Beyond that, the Aztecs probably need to have at least a 7-5 record to get strong consideration from the Poinsettia. But it looks likely at this point for several reasons:

Pecking order: The Mountain West has contracts with four bowls this year: The Las Vegas, the Poinsettia, the Independence and the New Mexico.

After the Bowl Championship Series games make their team selections, the Las Vegas Bowl picks first among available teams from the Mountain West, followed by the Poinsettia, which picks second.

Boise State (6-0) of the Mountain West is headed to a BCS game if it can finish undefeated. If so, Texas Christian (4-2) likely would be the pick for the Las Vegas Bowl. That leaves the Poinsettia to choose among the following possible teams: SDSU, Air Force (3-3), Colorado State (3-3) and Wyoming (4-2). The Aztecs beat Air Force and would sell more tickets to the game, making them the logical choice.

If the Aztecs win out: They would be a strong candidate for the Las Vegas Bowl at 10-2. But the Vegas Bowl still gets to choose which Mountain West team it wants.

If SDSU (1-1 in league play), Boise State (1-0) and the Horned Frogs (2-0) finish tied atop the Mountain West standings with 6-1 league records, the Vegas bowl will consider overall records, head-to-head results, plus potential ticket sales and TV ratings. Boise State still might have the better overall record at 11-1. TCU already has beaten SDSU, 27-14. Because of those factors, SDSU could fall into the Poinsettia even with a 10-2 record.

Other scenarios: There are two main scenarios that could prevent SDSU from landing in the Poinsettia again -- if Boise State loses a game, or if SDSU doesn’t win at least eight games. Each still might not be enough to keep SDSU out of the Poinsettia.

For the Broncos, their toughest remaining games are at home against TCU on Nov. 12 and at SDSU on Nov. 19. If they lose once, they likely would not play in a BCS game. Instead, they and TCU would be available for the Las Vegas or Poinsettia bowls.

If TCU beats Boise State, TCU might wind up in Vegas, leaving the Poinsettia to pick between Boise State and SDSU. In that case, the Poinsettia might take the Boise State-SDSU game winner.

If Vegas takes Boise State, the Poinsettia could choose between TCU and SDSU. If SDSU is 7-5 or 8-4 and TCU is 9-3 or 10-2, the Poinsettia would have a harder time picking SDSU, especially because TCU beat SDSU. But which team would sell more tickets?

After the Poinsettia Bowl makes its pick, the Independence Bowl in Shreveport, La., picks next in the Mountain West. Shreveport is about 225 miles from TCU. Regardless of the teams’ win-loss records, it might work out better for both teams and both bowls if SDSU stayed in San Diego and TCU made the four-hour drive to Shreveport.

Last year, San Diego State and Navy drew a record Poinsettia Bowl crowd of 48,049.

Likely records: This year, head coach Rocky Long said his team probably needs at least seven wins to make sure it goes to any bowl after the season.

“We’ve got to win at least three more to be assured of a bowl bid,” said Long, whose team next plays on Oct. 29 at home against Wyoming. “In the past, some 6-6 teams don’t get to go.”

The Aztecs probably will be favored to win all of their remaining six games except for Boise State. That means a 9-3 or 8-4 record looks likely. If SDSU is 8-4 or 9-3, it might be hard for the Poinsettia Bowl to turn down the local team and send it to Shreveport. After the Independence Bowl, the New Mexico Bowl picks fourth among Mountain West teams.

WAC opponent: By contract this year, the Poinsettia matches a second pick from the Mountain West against a first pick from the WAC. If SDSU gets into the Poinsettia, it will not face Fresno State (3-4) of the WAC because the two teams play a regular-season game at Qualcomm Stadium on Dec. 3. Bowls generally don’t like rematches, especially ones that happen less than three weeks later on the same field.

That leaves Nevada (3-3), New Mexico State (3-3) or San Jose State (3-4) as possible WAC foes. Hawaii (3-3) usually goes to the Hawaii Bowl if bowl-eligible.

“Nevada is probably the odds-on favorite based on how they’re playing at this point,” Binkowski said.