It’s on: Brown vs. Shaheen (and Obama)

Attacks on Shaheen’s support for immigration reform have given Brown’s campaign new life. | AP Photos

Operatives on the ground think Brown’s immigration attacks have taken a toll on Shaheen. New Hampshire is overwhelmingly white, and internal polling shows that attacking the incumbent on “amnesty” has been effective — especially among the GOP base and independents.

Eric Fehrnstrom, who has worked on all of Brown’s statewide campaigns and was a Mitt Romney confidant, produced the spot that went up on July 28.

Text Size

-

+

reset

“Thanks to the pro-amnesty policies of President Obama and Sen. Shaheen, we have an immigration crisis on our hands,” Brown says to the camera. “We respond with compassion, but it’s time for us to secure the border once and for all.”

The issue is potent enough with independents that Shaheen, who based last year’s Senate bill, came out against letting illegal immigrants pay in-state college tuition — a rare Democrat to do so.

Republicans see another moment of opportunity: when Obama issues his expected executive order on immigration in the next few weeks. Whatever he does seems likely to be unpopular in the state, they say, and Shaheen could be forced to break with the president — which could depress liberal base turnout.

And Obama remains a bigger challenge for Democrats than immigration. The WMUR poll showed Obama’s approval rating at only 37 percent, with 59 percent disapproving. Shaheen defeated incumbent Sen. John Sununu in 2008 by tying him to George W. Bush, who carried New Hampshire in 2000 but had become toxic by the end of his term.

That’s why Democrats have been laying down heavy ad reservations in the state. The party and its allies clearly see the race as competitive enough to invest, with the League of Conservation Voters and Senate Majority PAC spending in the state. The super PAC linked to billionaire environmentalist Tom Steyer joined that effort on Thursday, just before the WMUR poll was released, launching a million-dollar ad buy attacking the Republican.

The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee has also reserved at least $1 million in time this fall.

Republican-aligned outside groups are approaching the race more cautiously.

Ending Spending Action Fund, the super PAC backed by billionaire Joe Ricketts, told POLITICO Friday that it is launching a seven-figure onslaught over the next few weeks that should match Steyer’s spending.

But other big GOP groups are still taking a wait-and-see approach, trying to ascertain whether the WMUR poll is an outlier or shows the race is within reach.

While both sides concede the race has tightened, WMUR and its pollster have been frequent punching bags for both parties unhappy with their results — perhaps with good reason.

The survey has a history of erratic swings that don’t represent true changes in the races they’ve measured. This poll, of 609 voters, was also in the field for 10 days, Aug. 7-17, which is very unusual.

A few months ago, as WMUR showed Brown trailing by double digits, Republicans criticized UNH pollster Andy Smith’s methodology. Friday, it was the Democrats’ turn, but even some Republicans privately acknowledged they view numbers from the university with skepticism.

In 2012, the WMUR poll had Obama leading Romney by 5 points in early September and then 15 points later in the month. But the next poll, in early October, showed a 6-point race.

Back then, former Republican Gov. John Sununu called the polling “extremely volatile” and dismissed it as a “piece of garbage,” according to a clip from the Concord Monitor flagged by Democrats.

Brown supporters pointed to a mid-July robopoll from Magellan Strategies, a Republican firm, which found Brown down just 5 points.

“New Hampshire has always been a state that closes late and fast and appreciates candidates who work hard for their vote,” said Reed, Brown’s manager. “Labor Day is a week away, and then the primary is a week after that.”

The Shaheen camp has not hesitated to raise money off the WMUR survey.

“They’re gaining on us! Give now, immediately, to stop the Republican surge,” a Shaheen fundraising email to her list said Friday. “Brown is only down by TWO, and the once-distant threat of a Republican surge is here. … New Hampshire is our firewall. If it goes, the whole Senate goes.”