Fantasy Football 2013 Running Back Rankings: DeMarco Murray Rising, a Year After Being Overrated

Last year, I listed DeMarco Murray as my pick for most overrated back in preliminary rankings, after he was rising to the top seven among running backs selected. He missed six games with injury, only scored four touchdowns, and finished 27th in points scored among running backs.

My opinion on DeMarco Murray has changed very little over the last year, yet he has gone from overvalued to undervalued in the fickle world of public opinion. He is currently going in the range of the 18th running back off the board. The shine has worn off, and he has never played a full season. The “injury prone” label is no doubt contributing, a label I find to be overused. Last year, I had him at 13th in my projections; this year, he is 11th. Here’s why.

These rankings are put together with projections based on overall team projection passing and rushing, with the receiving numbers allocated among all skill players. It’s art and science, and I wouldn’t pretend it is exact. It is a way of applying reason to the process. I try to look at recent historical performance on a team level, key personnel changes, and apply regression principles. Obviously, some teams are more guess work than others. Kansas City going to Andy Reid or Alex Smith, for example, or Arizona bringing in Carson Palmer instead of what was a dreadful quarterback situation.

After I get the team projections, I then divide it up among the players, again trying to project percentage of touches/targets and role in offense. With Murray, for example, I am comfortable projecting him as the clear top choice at running back, and in line for at least 70% of the running back touches when healthy. DeMarco Murray still averaged over 90 yards a game from scrimmage last year, and that was coming back from injury. The other backs on the team averaged 3.4 yards per carry, so while Murray’s average dropped, he was the best back on the team, clearly. The issues were inside with run blocking, and the team sought to address it in the first round by taking center Travis Frederick. The early returns look promising.

The last issue is touchdowns. They are notoriously fickle for backs, and among teams that scored single digit rushing touchdowns in 2011, the average jumped to 11.2 in 2012. We saw Detroit, another team with a high passing yard total and a stud receiver, more than double the rushing TD’s in 2012 with Leshoure as beneficiary of short runs. While I don’t expect such a sizeable leap, I am projecting Dallas to score more rushing touchdowns, with Murray getting the most. Add all of those up (useful as runner and receiver, clear top back, touchdown regression to mean, and health) and that’s why Murray is still the same guy to me, but at a much better price.

The projections are for a scoring system using a 0.5 point per reception, 6 pts for TD, 1 pt every 10 yards. Some leagues are PPR and some not, so adjust backs who are used more as receivers up or down based on which direction your league moves. For example, in a non-PPR league, Mark Ingram and Darren Sproles have a similar overall projection, but Sproles is way more valuable in PPR. Here are the full rankings:

Ray Rice seems a bit high. The Pitta injury obviously factors into this, but with an option like Pierce available players 9-14 all seem like they would provide better value just based on the sheer number of times they’ll be on the field. Maybe the stats bear otherwise, but it felt like last year Ray Rice and Pierce were splitting playing time quite a bit.

Ridley and Vereen only 17 points apart stood out the most to me in your rankings. Probably the lowest I’ve seen Ridley on any list. Is it just the no catches factor?

http://www.majorleaguejerk.com/ spencer096

wait…that wasnt the link. shit.

chicago

Husker will always have AJ Green…. and that’s probably enough.

scripty

okay I quit running my league so maybe I’ll give your jr. high league a shot this year.

oskie

Andre Brown is going to steal from Wilson much like Brandon Jacbos did to Tiki Barber.

http://www.majorleaguejerk.com/ spencer096

from tanier (that smug asshole)…

Jones was having a so-so training camp for the Steelers. He looked slow to react during team drills, and the edge rusher who often came unblocked in Georgia’s blitz packages was getting shut down by backup Steelers tight ends. A gift play or two can keep the confidence high, give the family something to send happy text messages about, and provide a little mental reinforcement that the hard work really will lead to something.