Technical analysis of USD.CAD for August 5, 2016

With the Canadian Dollar strengthening against the US Dollar as Oil prices rise above 41$, I expect some more weakness for the USDCAD pair over the coming days and a possible pull back even towards 1.29. However, my longer-term view for a push towards 1.33-1.36 is still in play.

Blue lines – long-term triangle pattern

With a possible fake breakout above 1.3150 USDCAD is making lower lows and lower highs. Price is most probably heading towards daily cloud support at 1.29 where I will look to open long positions. I continue to believe that the correction of the entire decline is still not over and that this pair should at least make a strong bounce towards 1.33 if not 1.36.

Green line – short-term support

USDCAD has broken below the 4 hour Kumo (cloud) support and the short-term triangle pattern targeting the green trend line support at 1.2970. With NFP announcement today we should expect some wild movements in all dollar pairs. My longer-term view remains bullish so I continue to expect a large scale reversal, either from current levels or from 1.29.