A connection between lack of hitting and injuries?

Since none of this ended up in the print edition today, I’m going to post them all here.
Lists of hits last year and this year, and man-games lost for last year and this year. This year’s man-games list is incomplete, but has the Avs’ totals.

I hate to bring down the high spirits of a sports blog with statistical analysis, but you’re the one who busted out the numbers, Adrian, and I’m a “statistical dorkus”. I copied these numbers into excel and got a correlation coefficient of -.24 …for those of you who aren’t mathematically inclined, the answer to the question of correlation is “no, not really.”

Numbersdontlie

oops, I meant -.29

Mike

I did the same. The -.29 r^2 isn’t significant. It’s a trend though…

Mike

Also, Edmonton is an outlier. Their man games lost was 3 SD higher than the average. You remove them from the sample and the correlation gets worse… down to -.24 (p = .2). So, there’s not a definite effect of fewer hits leading to more man games lost, but the idea isn’t TOTALLY wrong…

Hockey Guru (aka Poisonguy)

Did you use Dixon’s test for outliers? Maybe a T procedure? I like Grubb’s personally.

And anyways, even if their was a correlation, everyone and their grandmother knows that correlation does not equal causation, right? ;-)

jimbo

Nice work, stats nerds!

Sincerely,
A language nerd.

I think people notice a team like the Avs or Oilers, who in 2009-10 had a lot of injuries and not a lot of hits, and assume a correlation; but when you look closer you see are teams like Carolina and Columbus, who were fairly high on both hits and injuries, and teams like Nashville and TB, who were relatively low on both.

If you are of the opinion that the Avs are a soft team that doesn’t really hit anybody, and because of that other teams go after them a bit harder, which leads to more Avs injuries, than these numbers might support that argument. But as far as a league-wide phenomenon, it doesn’t seem to hold water, mathematically speaking.

Maybe a SLIGHT downward trend, but yeah, it’s not anywhere close to significant.

Numbersdontlie

I hate to bring down the high spirits of a sports blog with statistical analysis, but you’re the one who busted out the numbers, Adrian, and I’m a “statistical dorkus”. I copied these numbers into excel and got a correlation coefficient of -.24 …for those of you who aren’t mathematically inclined, the answer to the question of correlation is “no, not really.”

Numbersdontlie

oops, I meant -.29

Mike

I did the same. The -.29 r^2 isn’t significant. It’s a trend though…

Mike

Also, Edmonton is an outlier. Their man games lost was 3 SD higher than the average. You remove them from the sample and the correlation gets worse… down to -.24 (p = .2). So, there’s not a definite effect of fewer hits leading to more man games lost, but the idea isn’t TOTALLY wrong…

Hockey Guru (aka Poisonguy)

Did you use Dixon’s test for outliers? Maybe a T procedure? I like Grubb’s personally.

And anyways, even if their was a correlation, everyone and their grandmother knows that correlation does not equal causation, right? ;-)

jimbo

Nice work, stats nerds!

Sincerely,
A language nerd.

I think people notice a team like the Avs or Oilers, who in 2009-10 had a lot of injuries and not a lot of hits, and assume a correlation; but when you look closer you see are teams like Carolina and Columbus, who were fairly high on both hits and injuries, and teams like Nashville and TB, who were relatively low on both.

If you are of the opinion that the Avs are a soft team that doesn’t really hit anybody, and because of that other teams go after them a bit harder, which leads to more Avs injuries, than these numbers might support that argument. But as far as a league-wide phenomenon, it doesn’t seem to hold water, mathematically speaking.

Maybe a SLIGHT downward trend, but yeah, it’s not anywhere close to significant.

Headthehole

No, I don’t see the correlation.

Headthehole

No, I don’t see the correlation.

Mln1987

Honestly, I think it just LOOKS that way. If you glance at the numbers, there definitely seems to be something there, but when you really take a look…. I think that the injury games lost has *something* to do with this, but there’s more to it. Maybe if you got the numbers not JUST for hits, but for hits taken for each individual player who was injured, such as defensemen who FREQUENTLY step into plays, who block shots, who play aggressively…. I bet that the hits only have a small part in it, but are the gateway to finding the answer.

Mln1987

Honestly, I think it just LOOKS that way. If you glance at the numbers, there definitely seems to be something there, but when you really take a look…. I think that the injury games lost has *something* to do with this, but there’s more to it. Maybe if you got the numbers not JUST for hits, but for hits taken for each individual player who was injured, such as defensemen who FREQUENTLY step into plays, who block shots, who play aggressively…. I bet that the hits only have a small part in it, but are the gateway to finding the answer.

Matt

The Avs are a team of marshmallows. Start off with Duchene, Hejduk, O’Reilly, Mueller, Galliardi, Jones, Yip…..and that’s just some of the forwards that never hit anyone. Even Stewart really isn’t very physical unless he drops the gloves. Stewart rarely lays a good check on anyone. He just tussles and scrums, but doesn’t ever blast anyone into the boards.

The defense? Ha. Easily the weakest in the NHL when it comes to physicality. Getting O’Byrne from the habs won’t change any of that. He’s not an NHL defenseman. He’s AHL material. Leave it to the Avs to never want to go out and get real NHL players. They continue to shop at the thrift store.

kenco

Good post. Glad not everyone drinks the kool-aid around here.

Anonymous

I love Kool-Aid…especially Burgundy flavored Kool-Aid..so delicious

Anonymous

I love Kool-Aid…especially Burgundy flavored Kool-Aid..so delicious

Uhmm

‘Stewart rarely lays a good check on anyone. He just tussles and scrums, but doesn’t ever blast anyone into the boards.’

Okay, yeah let’s get Stewart to hit everything that moves. Just hope the guy getting hit doesn’t dodge him and Stewart ends up injuring himself.

You sir are completely correct.

Hockey Guru (aka Poisonguy)

Tough week to get off the amphetamines, eh, Matt/Kurt/Tommy/Chris/etc?

Matt

The Avs are a team of marshmallows. Start off with Duchene, Hejduk, O’Reilly, Mueller, Galliardi, Jones, Yip…..and that’s just some of the forwards that never hit anyone. Even Stewart really isn’t very physical unless he drops the gloves. Stewart rarely lays a good check on anyone. He just tussles and scrums, but doesn’t ever blast anyone into the boards.

The defense? Ha. Easily the weakest in the NHL when it comes to physicality. Getting O’Byrne from the habs won’t change any of that. He’s not an NHL defenseman. He’s AHL material. Leave it to the Avs to never want to go out and get real NHL players. They continue to shop at the thrift store.

kenco

Good post. Glad not everyone drinks the kool-aid around here.

Anonymous

I love Kool-Aid…especially Burgundy flavored Kool-Aid..so delicious

Uhmm

‘Stewart rarely lays a good check on anyone. He just tussles and scrums, but doesn’t ever blast anyone into the boards.’

Okay, yeah let’s get Stewart to hit everything that moves. Just hope the guy getting hit doesn’t dodge him and Stewart ends up injuring himself.

You sir are completely correct.

Hockey Guru (aka Poisonguy)

Tough week to get off the amphetamines, eh, Matt/Kurt/Tommy/Chris/etc?

Uhmm

The Colorado Avalanche Hockey Club announced today that the team has acquired defenseman Ryan O’Byrne from the Montreal Canadiens in exchange for forward prospect Michael Bournival.

That should help, but we still need a couple more big bodies

Uhmm

The Colorado Avalanche Hockey Club announced today that the team has acquired defenseman Ryan O’Byrne from the Montreal Canadiens in exchange for forward prospect Michael Bournival.

That should help, but we still need a couple more big bodies

Ppierre74

I don’t think there is any direct correlation between hits and man game lost but it would be interesting to had some parameters like the average height and weight of the teams and there might be something coming up.
A 6’2″ / 233 p player like Ovechkin will always have more chances to hurt someone with a hit than a 6’0″ 195p Dupuis in my opinion and it’s not to mention punishing defenders around the league. What do you think ? Is there a mathematical spirit arounf there to try and get this into consideration ?

Ppierre74

I don’t think there is any direct correlation between hits and man game lost but it would be interesting to had some parameters like the average height and weight of the teams and there might be something coming up.
A 6’2″ / 233 p player like Ovechkin will always have more chances to hurt someone with a hit than a 6’0″ 195p Dupuis in my opinion and it’s not to mention punishing defenders around the league. What do you think ? Is there a mathematical spirit arounf there to try and get this into consideration ?

Terry Frei graduated from Wheat Ridge High School in the Denver area and has degrees in history and journalism from the University of Colorado-Boulder. He worked for the Rocky Mountain News while attending CU and joined the Post staff after graduation. He has also worked at the Oregonian in Portland, Ore., and The Sporting News. His seventh book, March 1939: Before the Madness, was issued in February 2014.

Chambers covers college and professional hockey for The Denver Post. He has written for the Post since 1994, after dumping his first 9-to-5 office job a couple years out of college. He primarily follows the University of Denver hockey team and helps cover the Avalanche.