<b>19th Century Shop:</b> Charles Darwin on sexuality and the transmission of hereditary characteristics: Autograph Letter Signed to Lawson Tait. Down, 17 January [1877].

<b>19th Century Shop:</b> MILTON, JOHN. <i>Paradise Lost. A Poem written in ten books.</i> London: 1667. A very rare example with the contemporary binding untouched and with a 1667 title page.

<b>19th Century Shop:</b> Hamilton secures the ratification of the Constitution: <i>The Debates and Proceedings of the Convention of the State of New-York, assembled at Poughkeespsie, on the 17th June, 1788.</i>

<b>19th Century Shop:</b> The social contract “Man is born free, and everywhere he is in chains”: ROUSSEAU, JEAN-JACQUES. <i>Principes du Droit Politique [Du Contract Social]</i>. Amsterdam: Michel Rey, 1762

<b>19th Century Shop:</b> “The first English textbook on geometrical land-measurement and surveying”: BENESE, RICHARD. <i>This Boke Sheweth the Maner of Measurynge All Maner of Lande…</i>

<b>Bloomsbury Auctions: Books and Works on Paper, including Fine Photographs. December 14, 2017</b>

<b>Bloomsbury, Dec. 14:</b> Rowling (J.K.). Hogwarts School of Witchcraft and Wizardry, original fine black pen and ink manuscript book by the author J.K.Rowling, with 31pp of text and illustrations. £80,000 to £120,000

<b>Collections Aristophil, Dec. 20:</b> SAINT-EXUPERY, ANTOINE DE. Kodachrome Film (16mm) showing Antoine de Saint-Exupery and Consuelo on a boat, 1942. JOINED: Guestbook for the Boat, signed, with a drawing of the Little Prince. 15 000 to 20 000 €

<b>Collections Aristophil, Dec. 20:</b> CANDEE, HELEN CHURCHILL. Autograph manuscript. TITANIC, 40 leaves. Original account of the most famous shipwreck, by a survivor of the ordeal. 300 000 to 400 000 €

<b>Collections Aristophil, Dec. 20:</b> DUPLEIX DE CADIGNAN, JEANBAPTISTE. Signed autograph manuscript. Thirty years of memoirs related to military services and important information on the American War of Independence.<br>40 000 to 50 000 €

Rare Book Monthly

Auction Reports: Coming of Age

- by Bruce E. McKinney

More information on the auction experience

By Bruce McKinney

The weekly auction reports, introduced a year ago, have been revised. Members who have signed up for the free weekly reports will see a revised report when they receive the next issue on Sunday evening. Casual observers can see the same reports in the Upcoming Auctions section of AE by selecting Recent Weekly Auction Reports. New reports are emailed Sunday evenings at 9:00 pm PST and posted in the Upcoming Auctions section at the same time. A link to sign-up is provided at the end of this article.

The revised report, for those who look into the details of specific auctions by selecting Click Here to View Top Ten Lots by Sale Price, will find four new fields highlighted in yellow in the auction summary that provide detailed information about overall performance. Buyers logically focus on specific lots but all items offered are also part of specific events and their overall performance varies widely from house to house, from event to event. Deconstructing results provides evidence of the current market as well as clues to how each auction approaches their business. These new fields provide more information about these differences.

Under the umbrella of 'auction' - variation between houses is the norm, but houses tend to be internally consistent even as they adjust to changing circumstances - so understanding how they did provides evidence about how they'll do. In many cases the past is proscriptive. About this you'll have your own opinion. In recognizing the changes that houses make you'll gain insight into how they view the market. Because auctions provide a steady drumbeat of sales there's a close to real time continuum of data that provides the best evidence available about the current state of the market. But you do have to sort it out yourself because the book business is a braided tapestry, 19th century fiction a world apart from 18th century science, 20th century poetry several time zones away from early travel and voyages.

In issuing weekly reports we have for the past year focused on success rates, that is the lots sold. The market is recovered sufficiently that we can more clearly identify the proportion of lots unsold and add an important statistic: total sales as a % of high estimate. This is a telling number.
Houses that accept or themselves impose reserves above current market value will tend to have a lower percentage of lots sold and also achieve a lower percentage of total receipts as measured by Total Sales as a % of High Estimate. If reserves are high fewer lots will sell and overall performance, as measured by total sales divided by the total high estimate, be lower. It may sound complicated but it reduces itself to a simple number.

A sale and the market will appear to be in balance when an auction achieves 100% of the high estimate. In a rising market that percentage will tend to be above 100%, in a declining market below. This said, these statistics can only be applied to auctions as a group. Specific sales will often be subject to random events that increase or decrease revenue. But taken together, these numbers provide a riveting picture of a selling channel constantly in flux, adjusting to changing demand.

Momentum, the rate of change and its implication for future pricing, is the subject of our ongoing study.