On April 1st the Latvian president, Raimonds Vejonis, signed into law controversial draft amendments to the Law on Education, according to which Latvian will gradually become the sole language used for teaching in schools for ethnic minorities. The amendments were passed by the Latvian parliament on March 22nd.

The denial of language rights in education for one of Europe's largest minorities is contentious and, unsurprisingly, Latvia's large Russian-speaking community has objected to the reforms. Protests are likely to continue throughout the year.

The Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs has denounced the move as discriminatory against the Russian-speaking minority and has threatened a worsening of bilateral relations. On April 3rd the Russian parliament condemned the reform and threatened to impose economic sanctions on Latvia.

Meanwhile, the reform remains popular among ethnic Latvians and is likely to strengthen the chances of the Union of Greens and Farmers (ZZS) and the National Alliance (NA) remaining part of the ruling coalition after the parliamentary election in October this year.

Since regaining independence in 1991 Latvia has maintained a small network of publicly financed schools for the ethnic Russian minority, and about 55,000 students (just over a quarter of all school pupils in the country) currently attend such schools, where the method of instruction is Russian. However, in recent years the government has sought to promote Latvian as the language used for teaching. For instance, in 2004 the government proposed a reform that mandated that 60% of all classes be taught in Latvian, limiting the number of classes taught in Russian to 40%. This change was virulently opposed by Latvia's Russian-speaking community, and politicians deferred the reforms in the face of strong protests.

The 2004 reforms were led by the then minister of education and science, Karlis Sadurskis (from Unity), who once again heads the Ministry of Education under the current administration. Mr Sadurskis is now leading a reform to restrict the language of instruction in minority schools to Latvian, arguing that this is essential to unite the nation.

Schooling only in Latvian

In December 2017 the government, comprising the ZZS, the NA and Unity, approved draft amendments to the Law on Education, which aims to implement a gradual three-year transition to Latvian as the main language of instruction in all public schools from September 1st 2019. According to the amendments, in the school year 2019/20 50% of all general classes will be taught in Latvian in primary schools (grades 1-6), but for grades 7-9 the proportion of classes taught in Latvian will be increased to 80%. All final exams for grade-9 pupils will be conducted only in Latvian. From 2020/21 Latvian will be the sole medium of instruction for all general classes for 10th and 11th grades, and in time all general classes in high schools (grades 10-12) will be fully taught in Latvian. Exceptions will be made for foreign language and literature courses. The government is also planning to issue new education guidelines for pre-schools in 2019/20. On March 22nd Latvia's 100-seat parliament passed these amendments by 58 votes to 13, and Mr Vejonis signed the amendments into law on April 1st.

The Russian-speaking community protests

As with the 2004 education reforms, the recent amendments have met with widespread public protests, particularly from the Russian-speaking community (which accounts for more than 25% of the total population in Latvia), which argues that they are discriminatory. A similar reform adopted in Ukraine in 2017 also met with fierce resistance from the large Russian-speaking community in Ukraine. Other criticisms focus on the speed with which the changes will be introduced and the questionable benefits in terms of improving the quality of education or better opportunities for school-leavers. Mr Sadurskis claims that €7m (US$8.6m) will be spent from both national and European funds on preparing schools and training about 8,000 teachers to ensure a smooth transition, but opponents of the reforms argue that minority schools lack the requisite teaching materials and do not have an adequate number of teachers with the required language skills to be able to teach in Latvian.

The Russian foreign ministry has criticised the move as discriminatory to Latvia's Russian-speaking population, and has warned that it would lead to a further deterioration in (poor) bilateral relations between the two countries. The Russian parliament threatened to impose economic sanctions against Latvia, including banning financial transactions and cancelling trade agreements.

Many different groups have participated in public protests in Latvia against the reform, including figures from the radical Russian right, but the Latvian Russian Union, a small party that polled 1.6% in the 2014 parliamentary election, has been the main driver of the demonstrations. The party's co-chairman, Tatjana Zdanoka, plans to use the education reform as a campaign platform in the upcoming parliamentary election in October and challenge the Harmony Social Democratic Party (SDPS), a left-leaning Russian-language party that is currently the largest party in parliament. The SDPS has also opposed the reforms, but the party's leader, Nils Usakovs, has been less vocal than Ms Zdanoka in his criticism. This moderate tone is in keeping with Mr Usakovs' electoral strategy to focus on the party's social democratic credentials in order to broaden its electorate to include ethnic Latvians and move closer to a seat in a government coalition. However, by trying to widen the party's electoral base, Mr Usakovs risks losing SDPS core voters in the upcoming election.

Ethnic Latvians broadly support the education reform, and the popular move may strengthen the ruling coalition. The move will not only help to mobilise the NA's core nationalist electorate, but will also portray the prime minister, Maris Kucinskis (ZZS), as a man of action. Given the popularity of the reform among ethnic Latvians, we expect it to strengthen the chances of the ZZS and the NA to form the nucleus of the next government in October.