Jack Martin is set to make an instant impact for the Gold Coast Suns. Source: News Limited

IN THE second edition of a pre-season series showcasing advice from the SuperCoach experts, mathematics guru Peter Higginbothom asks if Gold Coast's Jack Martin is a must-have selection in 2014.

WE ALL know about the Jack that traded his family's precious cow for a few supposedly magic beans. This was a risky trade that paid off - and ultimately resulted in a happy ending.

I am here to tell you that there is a new Jack in town this season and his tale is just beginning. If you believe some of the experts, Jack is set to make as much impact in his first season with the Gold Coast Suns as Jaeger O'Meara did last season. Time will tell.

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To the uninitiated, young Jack might appear to be somewhat of a "no brainer" in terms of attractive midfield options this SuperCoach season. But with a starting price of $222,300, does Jack Martin in fact pose a similar risk scenario to Supercoach pundits as was posed to Jack while considering that fateful trade of the family cow?

Will you be prepared to spend the extra money to trade Jack Martin into your team on your quest to the ultimate $50,000 prize?

The game has changed. For the first time young draftees have been assigned a new "rookie royalty" tax before stepping foot on an AFL ground. Young Martin will go into the season as the most expensive SuperCoach option in history to debut at the elite level. Young prospects Tom Boyd and Jesse Hogan are next in line priced at $217,300.

So while some AFL experts might be touting Jack Martin to be even better than Jaeger O'Meara, in a SuperCoach gaming sense, this is unlikely to be the case.

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Last year O'Meara was initially priced at just $115,900. After eight rounds of averaging an impressive 92 points, Jaeger's price had grown like a beanstalk to $416,300, making coaches a tidy $301,400 profit. For Jack Martin to give you this same early profit he would need to average closer to 120 points per game. Needless to say this is not a likely outcome.

Would it make more sense to spend less of your $10 million starting salary cap on a player who will cost you less? Could you make more profit on a cheaper rookie? Could you free up cash to allow you to invest more heavily in a crucial starting premium selection?

Some number crunching may help us find the 2014 rookie goose that lays the golden egg.

The first bye round occurs in Round 8. Ideally, we should identify a rookie with potential to earn a fast profit over the first seven rounds. This will allow us to cash the rookie in to make cover for any Round 8 premiums you are likely to have in your team (such as Ablett, Pendlebury, Beams, Selwood or Cotchin).

Jaeger O’Meara won the Rising Star Award after a brilliant debut season in 2013. Picture: Jerad WilliamsSource: News Limited

Listed below are some potential 2014 midfield rookie selections and the averages that they will need to score over the first seven rounds to make a profit of $200,000 for your team.

Jack Martin (GC) $222, 300 - 100 point average

Claye Beams (BL) $183,400 - 93 point average

Jared Polec (PA) $172,600 - 90 point average

Luke Dunstan (StK) $132,300 - 83 points average

Dayle Gartlett (Haw) $117,300 - 80 point average

Looking at it mathematically and provided his early season job security becomes assured, it would appear that Dayle Gartlett is more likely to be the next Supercoach Jaeger O'Meara. Selecting this Hawthorn rookie over Jack Martin could not only save us $105,000, but he could make us the same profit of $200,000 over the first seven rounds with an average of 20 points fewer per game.

However, mathematical forecasts do not - to my frustration - always play out quite as elegantly as planned. We should be mindful of lessons learned from the past. Remember Relton Roberts? He generated as much pre season SuperCoach discussion in 2010 as Garlett only to score 15 and 13 in his first and only games for Richmond in 2010. He was the goose that laid a rotten egg.

Does the premium we will pay for Jack Martin become "worth it" when we consider the additional job security that may come with his elevated price tag? Will his slight build allow him to be as prolific a scorer as O'Meara was last season? Will we identify alternative cheaper rookies who we can rely on to play the six-plus games we need early in the season?

These are questions we must all pose of ourselves this pre-season.

Like Jack's beans, selecting a cheaper rookie may represent a greater risk than selection Martin. But this comes at a much cheaper price. Selecting a Dayle Gartlett over Jack Martin could just be the decision that allows you to climb the beanstalk to this year's $50,000 prize!

Peter Higginbotham is a contributor to jockreynolds.com.au and a co-host of the Jock Reynolds fantasy footy podcast - search for it on iTunes.

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