On 19th October, UP Chief Minister Akhilesh Yadav announced his decision to embark alone on 'Samajwadi Vikas Rath Yatra' starting from 3rd November, also indirectly hinting that he will not be part of his party's silver jubilee celebrations beginning on the 5th of November.

This
announcement is being viewed by experts as a family feud that has yet
not been resolved and is rather leading to a grave situation. Can the
Samajwadi Party afford such a crisis when the Assembly elections are
knocking at the door? Has Mulayam Singh Yadav failed to control the
inner party differences? Doesn't he understand that such lingering
feud is counterproductive to his party's prospects? Since Mulayam
Singh Yadav is a seasoned politician, how can he allow such a feud to
continue?

In
Focus

Or is it that
Mulayam Singh is intentionally allowing this feud to continue? Is
this feud a pre-planned one? Is this some gambit by Mulayam Singh for
some political experiment?

Mulayam Singh
Yadav has such a high stature within his party that if he wants that
the feud should end, none including Akhlesh Yadav, Shivpal Yadav or
anyone else in the party has the guts to disobey him. That's why
such a lingering feud has put all sane political analysts in a fix
who are now wondering whether this is Mulayam Sungh's plan or
really things in SP have gone beyond his control!

Now, let's take
a look at the present situation of UP politics. Thanks to Rahul
Gandhi's campaign, Congress is almost out of the contest. That
means, SP has a good chance in a triangular contest (BJP and BSP
being the other two) if it plays its cards smartly. By all
calculations, if SP can manage around 29-30 per cent votes and get a
clear forward margin of 3-4 per cent votes from its closest rival, it
can retain power.

To understand
this, let's look in to the vote percentages and number of seats won
by the four major parties in 2007 and 2012 UP Assembly elections.

UP voters comprise
of 40 per cent OBCs, 21.1 per cent SCs, 19.6 per cent Muslims and 22
per cent high-caste Hindus like Brahmins, Thakurs etc. Let's assume
that SP gets 20 per cent of OBC votes (including 9 per cent of
Yadavs), BSP gets 20 per cent of SC votes and BJP gets 20 per cent of
forward caste votes, considering their vote bank strength. (This
assumption is for a rough calculation).

As Congress is out
of the contest, SP should expect that all Muslim votes will get
transferred to it. But the Muslim community is angry with Mulayam's
party due to Muzaffarnagar riots. The Muslims are equally annoyed
with BSP for its past record of allying with the BJP. Even in the
coming elections, if there is a hung Assembly, Mayawati would have no
option other than going with the BJP. Thus, the Muslim community is
expected to look most confused in these elections.

So, there could be
division of Muslim votes between SP and BSP. In that case, both BSP
and SP will end up with roughly 30 per cent votes. For BJP, Assembly
elections are an altogether different ball game than the general
elections where it had got 41 per cent votes. It can't get Muslim
votes nor can it get SC votes. All its hopes remain with the balance
20 per cent OBC votes. Let's consider it takes away around 10 per
cent OBC votes, it will also end up with around 30 per cent votes.

Past experience
says that if a party is clearly ahead by 3-4 per cent votes, it can
win the election with a majority. Thus, the remaining 10 per cent
votes will be the bone of contention between the three major parties.
In fact, it's just 3 per cent votes that will be closely contested
as Congress and others are expected to get around 7 per cent votes.

Here lies the game
plan of Mulayam Singh Yadav. He knows very well that at the moment,
Akhilesh Yadav is the most popular CM of Uttar Pradesh. If he leads
the Samajwadi Party, it will get a maximum 30 per cent votes,
provided that all the assumptions are correct. However, there are a
sizable number of people (2-3 per cent at least) who are angry with
the Samajwadi Party but are ardent fans of Akhilesh Yadav. Thus, this
apparent revolt by Akhilesh may earn him 2-3 per cent more votes
which will get added to SP's kitty and could be decisive in the
end.

Thus, I believe
that Mulayam Singh Yadav has played a smart game and whatever is
currently happening in his party now appears as 'planned'. Isn't
it a brilliant strategy?

The only thing
that could foil Mulayam's plan is that in case the majority Muslim
community decides to support BSP. In that case, BSP would emerge as
the winner. If the BJP can maintain its 2014 general elections vote
percentage (41 per cent) then BJP could be a winner. Similarly, if
Congress achieves some 15-20 per cent votes, there could be a hung
Assembly.

The
point here is that all think that SP will lose power in the upcoming
elections. So what's wrong in having a strategy for turning the
table upside down by innovative ideas? Hence, one should praise
Mulayam's political intelligence and wait to see how things develop
in the times to come.

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