Post four on the day! Thirty minutes to gametime. I feel a little accomplished.

I got this idea last night to do a weekly preview of the games ahead. It would be simple, discuss the pitching matchups a little, predict a winner and so forth. Today, I am really started to get bored of writing, but in the future it may be more comprehensive, although it will likely be dropped, who knows? Anyways, let's take a look at the Astros' first week:

What a draw! I have been anticipating this marquee matchup for awhile. Plus, thanks to reigning CY Lincecum, ESPN2 picked up the game... SO I GET TO WATCH! This matchup brings so much intrique because Lincecum was often compared to Oswalt when he was first breaking into the league. Oswalt has pitched extremely well this spring and despite the foreshadowing of some back trouble, he should be in top form for tonights opener. I think this game could be even 2-2 into the seventh and I like the Astros' bullpen. Chalk this one up as a surprise (surprise? it's at home, so maybe not surprise) win. 5-3

Wandy Rodriguez at home, this game should be a lock right? Not so fast, Cain is one of the five best pitchers in the NL. My heart wants to mark this as an Astros win, but I can't believe they go 2-0. So, I'm going to say Wandy gets shelled in the first two innings and is out by the fourth. Matt Cain goes into the eighth. Giants win it, 7-1

I want to say that I liked seeing Zito have a decent year in '09, he may not be back, back, but it's good to see him relevant again. That said, I am amped for this game! Chris Johnson should be getting the start against the lefty, I'm expecting him to swing a hot bat--and hopefully earn himself some more playing time, I do not want him sent down when Berkman comes back! Hunter Pence can also mash against lefties, expect both to go yard in a 6-4 victory.

I think it will be Moyer at least (Moyer 4th, Kendrick 5th, right?). Another series at home, but this time against the NL favorite. I like the 25 year old man against the 65 year old man. Astros win, 6-5

This is where things get tricky, but I'm going to assume both teams throw out their aces. Oswalt faces two of the toughest opponents in the NL in his first two starts, and unlike the first one (the one in 8 min!) I don't think he'll be able to keep up. Phillies win 8-3.

Another tough draw for Wandy too. Wandy at home two times in the same week, he's going to win at least one. Hamels is a lefty against a right handed hitting team (Carlos Lee, Pence, Johnson, Feliz), so I like the Astros to finish the week strong, 4-3.

Week 1 record: 4-2

I would be absolutely thrilled if the Astros could pull this off in week one. Here's to hoping I'm not completely dellusional... and we'll find out very, very, soon.

As usual, if you disgree with my picks below, please let me know in the comments section. What do you disagree with? Who did I leave off? Who am I too optimistic about? Why do you feel this way? I'd love to get some back-and-forth with you about this. It's baseball season! I want as much baseball discussion as I can get. So, please comment.

I absolutely love the Rays (see below), however, I'm still going to pick the Yankees over 162 games... even if they're starting 0-1. They're rotation is great, again. C.C. Sabathia, A.J. Burnett and Andy Pettitte are all held over from last year's championship team and they've added Javier Vazquez and Phil Hughes at the back-end. Hughes is at least, at the very least equal to Joba, who was the third starter at the start of last season. Hughes features more upside in the rotation than Joba though... and I think he'll live up to it, this year. Vazquez was fourth or fifth in the NL CY Young voting last season (thank you Keith Law), this is his second time putting on pin stripes, hopefully they'll suit him better this time around, they should. The bullpen, as evidenced last night, could be messy. They've lost Hughes and Phil Coke from last year. However, Rivera and Joba are the 8th and 9th guys, 'nough said. The lineup is lightly weaker than last year. Question to those reading: Which set of hitters would you prefer? A) Curtis Granderson, Brett Gardner and Nick Johnson, or B) Melky Cabrera, Johnny Damon and Hideki Matsui. The Yankees of course have a great team. However, I don't like that they aren't clearly an definitively better than last year... they might be slightly worse.

The Twins are pretty consistently the best, of what I believe to be, the worst division in baseball. The Royals and Indians aren't going to compete (Royals=duh! but the Indians usually compete too). So, it could be any one of three teams, the Twins, the Tigers and the White Sox. Since I haven't gotten over the 2005 World Series, I threw out the White Sox. Finally, I flipped a coin. It turned up tails, which starts with a "T" and is five letters long. So, the Twins it is. I'm kidding, of course. The Twins have a good lineup, featuring reigning MVP, Joe Mauer and former MVP, Justin Morneau. Their pitching staff is also solid, even if they lack a big name starter. The Twins also always seem to get the most out of their roster, unlike the Tigers. So, I'll give them the division again, although, they'll be booted from the playoffs by the Rays in the first round.

The AL West is going to be competative, all four teams could finish above .500. However, I like the Rangers most of all. Perhaps, most because the other teams, although good, have some bigger questions. Mariners: Who is going to pitch well after Felix Hernandez and Cliff Lee? Who is going to drive in Ichiro and Chone Figgins? Angels: Why would they lose all their free agents and do nothing about it? A's: Who is going to hit for power? Will Sheets and Duscherer (I'm too lazy to look up the spelling, I apologize) hold up? Be effective? The Rangers are super young. With a ton of talent. Names to watch: Neftali Feliz, Derek Holland, Julio Borbon, Justin Smoak, Elvis Andrus, etc. Not to mention verterans: Josh Hamilton, Nelson Cruz, Michael Young, Ian Kinsler and Rich Harden. However, they too will likely fall to an AL East team in the playoffs.

Wild Card: Tampa Bay Rays

My World Series winner. The Red Sox' lineup is just too weak, in my opinion. The Rays, like the Rangers, have way too much young talent to be ingnored. Evan Longoria is going to be the AL MVP. He is terrific at all facets of the game. He is a leader. He will have a ring by season's end. B.J. Upton will return to form. Carlos Pena simply mashes. Ben Zobrist (former Astros farmhand) was a terrific surprise and will look to silence any doubters. Jason Bartlett is there to solidify the defense--which is good too, with Longoria and Pena as well. Their rotation may be a little underwhelming when compared to the Yankees or Red Sox, but it's still young and has a ton of potential. They also have lot's of prospects knocking on the door, if they haven't already burst through. Guys to watch (rookies and not): David Price, Wade Davis, Desmond Jennings and Jeremy Hellickson.

I like the Braves in this division too, thus picking them to go to the World Series, but the Philles will be better over 162 games. Halladay makes them just a little bit better than last year. They're the favorites in the NL, even though they're mostly the same team... a lot like the Yankees.

Holliday will be hitting behind Pujols for an entire season and they play in the NL Central (which I love, btw, obviously huge Astros fan here, getting pumped for 7pm, Oswalt v. Lincecum on ESPN2), 'nough said. They're pitching staff will be a little better with Jaime Garcia assuming fifth starter duties. Most everything else is the same as last year. If the Cubs--for once--live up to potential they could compete. Otherwise, the Reds have the best chance of taking it from the Cardinals, but that's a long long shot.

I love this Rockies team and have for awhile. Why? Troy Tulowitski is one of the top 10-15 players in the game. Ian Stewart can mash. Can you believe Clint Barmes hit 23 homeruns last year? I love Dexter Fowler and Carlos Gonzalez at the top of the order... Gonzalez, one of the most underrated young players in the game could hit .300 with 25 HRs and 25 SBs this season. I still like Todd Helton as a little above average NL first basemen. Brad Hawpe's not too shabby with the bat either. Best part of this team: there are probably five or more above average bats I haven't named. The pitching could be an issue, but they have some talent on the farm in that area. I mean you Christian Friedrich and Jhoulys Chacin.

Wild Card: Braves

This team has a good fusion of young and veteran players. A legendary manager going into his final year. They make the best of their roster. I'm too tired to write anything else.

AL Starters: C - Joe Mauer Min How could it be anyone else? 1B - Justin Morneau Min Best numbers among AL first basemen, eat is Teixeira. This is despite rare appearances on ESPN. 2B - Robinson Cano NYY Best numbers among AL second basemen, better than Kinsler, better than Pedroia. 3B - Evan Longoria TB 'Nough said. SS - Jason Bartlett TB Better numbers than Jeter despite less at-bats. OF - Jason Bay Bos He is far and away the best outfielder in the AL this year. OF - Carl Crawford TB There are probably five or more guys worthy of the final two outfield spots. I like Crawford because of his average and speed. OF - Adam Jones Bal Jones is already overshadowed by the rest of the league, being an Oriole. But, he is also overshadowed by the popular Nick Markakis and rookie Matt Wieters. This is my subtle nod to Jones' performance this season, and further proof the Orioles made a killing in the Bedard trade.

NL Starters: C - Brian McCann Atl This is such a pathetic group, but someone does have to start, right? I think Brian McCann is the most talented, so I closed my eyes and penciled in his bubble. 1B - Albert Pujols StL Year in and year out this position is so close, and so many of the players are deserving. I want to make note of the great performances from Adrian Gonzalez and Prince Fielder, but Pujols is clearly at the top. 2B - Chase Utley Phi One of those rare occurrances where numbers = popularity. 3B - Ryan Zimmerman Was David Wright's numbers are slightly better, but if Zimmerman played for a better team his would blow away the competitions. Plus you have to give Zimmerman for signing an extension with the worst team in baseball. Could Zimmerman, Strasburg and Bryce Harper make Washington competitive? Even I have my doubts. SS - Miguel Tejada Hou The numbers are very close between Tejada and Han Ram, but if Tejada is the All-Star starter, his trade value may go up, right? OF - Raul Ibanez Phi There is no better hitter in baseball this year. OF - Carlos Lee Hou He has All-Star starter's numbers. OF - Hunter Pence Hou His numbers are probably 5th best among outfielders, but he's the best right fielder in baseball, and his perpetual joy on the baseball field would be awesome to see in the All-Star game.

Hello, welcome to my 2009 MLB Mock Draft.This is where I will try to predict every pick for the first several rounds.With the recent news of Kyle Gibson’s stress fracture and other stock changes, I have just completely remade my mock draft, before I even released the first version.I had originally planned to mock all the day one picks, the first one hundred and eleven.But, because I have had to change many picks, I am not sure I will be able to get that many done by the draft tomorrow.I will however, mock as many picks as possible and provide sufficient information on each pick.I will continue working on this and update it, as I finish each round.My goal is to predict 20% of the picks I mock.I hope those of you who read my write up enjoy, please comment, and come back tomorrow for my thoughts on the draft itself.Later in the week, I will be reviewing the draft, so look for that as well.

Scouting reports come from a number of sites, most prominently Baseball America, PGCrosscheckers.com, John Sickel’s site minorleagueball.com and milb.com.

There are a couple places in the draft I want to point out now, for when I come back to grade - how many picks I got right - my mock.Where ever a team is picking back-to-back, notably Arizona at 16 and 17 and the Angels at 24 and 25, if I guess a guy at one of those two spots and he is picked by that team at the other spot, I’m counting it.Also, in the first round supplemental, I am counting any player I guess the correct team for.If Nick Franklin goes to the Angels in the supp. no matter what pick, I’m counting it.I think that’s fair, right?Anyways, enjoy.

I have decided I am going to post what I have on the blog, and add to it, as it gets done.

Strasburg is the number one pick of the 2009 MLB draft.My official prediction for how much he signs for… $21.5 million.Strasburg is the best prospect in the draft era, and would fit into a big league rotation immediately.I would love for the Nationals to send him to AAA, so I can see him in Syracuse, and give you all my own scouting report of him.He throws his fastball in the high 90s and can touch 103 mph.He also throws a hammer breaking ball in the low-to-mid 80s and a changeup he throws in the low 80s.I worry a little; I think its possible Strasburg blows out his arm at some point, a la the guy a lot of people compare him to, Mark Prior.With a comp. of Mark Prior, who wouldn’t worry? Anyways I seem to be in the minority on this.

If Strasburg is on the first tier of prospects by himself, I would say Ackley is on the second tier, all by himself.He is clearly the best hitter, having “plus, plus hittability”, according to milb.com’s draft report.He adds plus speed and range in centerfield.Ackley has dispelled any thoughts that he wouldn’t be able to play centerfield, following Tommy John surgery last summer, which had him saddled at first.The main question on Ackley is how much power he’ll hit for, and although I don’t think he needs too much to be an effective major league hitter, he certainly hit 20-30 homeruns.There was some talk about the Mariners wanning on Ackley and considering Aaron Crow or Tanner Scheppers, but I don’t buy it, Ackley’s the guy.What I think the Mariners are getting in Ackley is a future no. 3 hitter, who is going to play centerfield, hit .300+ with a .400 OBP, and be a 20-20 guy (Curtis Granderson better OBP?), not bad, eh?

After the first two picks things get very interesting, very fast.It seems as though the Padres have narrowed this selection to three guys: Tate, Aaron Crow and Mike Minor.Although, if I were running this draft, I would take Tyler Matzek, who I believe is the third best prospect in the draft.Crow would also be a good pick, but Minor is a clear overdraft.If Ackley falls, the Padres WILL take him.Tate has, perhaps, the highest ceiling in the draft.However, he is also going to cost a lot of money, close to six million?Tate has a strong commitment to North Carolina, where he would play both football and baseball – his father Lars Tate was an NFL player.There are also questions about Tate’s hit-ability.I like Tate at this spot for two reasons: 1. He’s the guy available with the most upside and San Diego’s system could really use some upside, particularly up the middle 2. If Tate doesn’t go number three, I don’t know where he goes, so I instead of forcing a headache upon myself, I’ve decided to take the risk, along with the Padres, and take Tate.

As previously stated, I’m fairly certain about the first two picks, however, every other pick is far from certain.Rumors have swirled around the Pirates, involving a sign-ability pick here.Names discussed include: Tony Sanchez and Bobby Borchering.The Pirates would like to save money because they are rumored to be the favorites to sign Dominican Miguel Angel Sano a SS, the rumored price is four million.Apart from those rumors the Pirates are known to like college pitchers and the top arm on my board is Aaron Crow, who has little negotiating power and should sign around slot.If Crow’s name sounds familiar, it should, he was the number nine pick in last year’s draft, and went to an independent league, along with Tanner Scheppers, after failing to sign, I had him going number ten to my Astros.Crow throws a low-to-mid 90s sinking fastball, a plus slider and an at least average changeup, which is his biggest improvement from last year.Personally, I like Crow and think he has front of the rotation upside, as a reliever he could pitch in the major’s later this season and could be in a rotation next.

As previously stated, Matzek is the third prospect on my board, and although Zach Wheeler seems to be the popular pick here of late, I still like Matzek – and I love the idea of Wheeler seven to his home state Braves.Matzek throws his fastball up to 95 mph, but sits in the low 90s.He throws two at least average breaking balls, a curveball he throws in the mid 70s and a slider in the mid 80s.He also throws a changeup, but hasn’t needed it yet.Matzek may not be a true no. one starter type, but he has good 2/3 starter upside, with much more polish than you would expect from a HS pitcher.The Orioles usually draft the best player available (BPA) and don’t shy away from guy with perceived signability problems.I do think the Orioles would love to add a good position player to their system, but there is no one of value here, so the Orioles will be “forced” to add to their already stellar crop of pitchers.

Scheppers is a tough guy to slot in.Many experts have him falling out of the top ten and in some cases out of the first round, because of fear for that same shoulder problem that made him fall last year.However, because I am mocking through the first supplemental, I would hate to have to guess how far Scheppers is going to fall, I mean, I already have to do that for Kyle Gibson, so I’m not going to torture myself and do it for Scheppers too.I like this fit.Although, I haven’t seen many people agree with me, that’s ok though.Scheppers has put together a good showing in St. Paul and should be close to major league ready.He profiles as a top of the rotation starter, but does come with injury risk.He throws his fastball in the mid 90s and can put “cut and sink” onto it (according to milb.com).He also throws a power curve and changeup.Like the Orioles, I think the Giants would love to add a bat and could be a possibility for Tate should he fall past the Padres, but without sufficient value on my board the Giants will also add to their “stellar crop of pitchers”.Jacob Turner and Zach Wheeler are also candidates.

7. Atlanta Braves: Zack Wheeler RHP East Paulding HS (Georgia)

I hope the Brave appreciate me dodging two bullets (the Orioles and Giants) to deliver them their prized Georgia arm.Wheeler was the guy I liked at the beginning of the year for the Astros, but since, has had his stock rise more than just about anyone in the draft.Wheeler has a perfect pitcher’s body at 6’4 170, and also fits Atlanta’s mold as a prep local product, as an added bonus, he’ll sign for slot!Wheeler already throws up to 95 mph and still has plenty of projection.He also throws an above average curveball and the makings of an average change.The sky is the limit for Wheeler, who has one of the highest upsides among the HS pitchers in this draft, but he also has some mechanical problems.

This is where I had Gibson slated for awhile, dubbing him the Yonder Alonso of this draft.However, due to the stress fracture, the Reds are unlikely to take him – although they could – and I don’t have to explain my Gibson = Alonso comparison.White has been up and down, but I still believe he has the highest upside amongst college pitchers NNS (not named Strasburg).I actually really like White and believe he would be a steal here.Leake and Grant Green are also possibilities.White throws a low 90s fastball, which gets up to 95 mph; his 2-seamer has great movement to it.His slider is also a plus pitch, he throws a splitter as an off-speed pitch, as well as a below average curveball.

Jacob Turner wants Rick Porcello money, well; why not give him to the team with a Rick Porcello void in their minors?Turner has a large frame at 6-5 220 and is already throwing in the mid-low 90s.He also throws a mid 70s slider.He hasn’t really needed a changeup in high school.Matt Purke is now being rumored

10. Washington Nationals: Chad Jenkins RHP Kennesaw State

Jenkins is a bit of an overdraft, but not too badly, since many think he could go to the Blue Jays at twenty also.The Nationals have also been attached to Mike Trout and others with this pick.The idea being to sign someone at or below slot since Strasburg is going to cost $21.5 million.Jenkins throws his fastballs, two and four seamers, in the low 90s.He adds a low 80s slider and changeup.

Leake was the big mover during the college season, as he moved up probably a round.He led division I in a couple statistical categories – so eat it Strasburg.However, Leake profiles as a 3/4 starter, with a high floor.He throws a high 80s/low 90s sinking fastball, he adds a high 70s/low 80s slider and plus changeup.He command is plus, plus.He’s short, but athletic for a pitcher.The last four drafts, 78% of the Rockies’ top 137 picks have been college players, 50% have been college pitchers.Mike Leake is a nice complement to Christian Friedrich (last year’s first rounder), and gives the Rockies a nice trio of advanced pitchers (throwing Jhoulys Chacin into the mix).Plus they need all the pitching help they can get – although all three of the pitchers I listed profile towards the middle of the rotation.

After a couple years of paying for high priced talents: Mike Moustakas, Eric Hosmer, etc, the Royals are looking for a bargain at a premium position (C, SS, CF), and rumors include Tony Sanchez, the top college catcher.However, I like the higher upsided (yes, upsided, I like the way it sounds) Myers.Myers has raw power and all the tools to become a solid defensive catcher, with a good arm.He is also very athletic for a catcher, with above-average speed.

Before the season, Grant was expected to be one of the first three picks in the draft.However, he has played his way down, as many now question his ability to stay at short, as well as his power.Green does, however, have good hitting ability, and average to above-average speed.His arm is also at least average, leaning above-average slightly.However, (milb.com) he has some trouble ranging up the middle and his power is more line-drive power than anything else, but he could hit 15-20 homeruns.Oakland’s MO is established college players, which makes it Green or Brothers in my book.The A’s are also attached to Donavan Tate, should he fall, and his reported $6 million price tag, so signing Green should be no problem.By the way, I love me some Green.I think he’ll stick at short, and be a near .300 hitter with 15-20 homeruns… that’s enough.

If there was a lock this late in the draft, it’d be Miller to the Rangers.It fits there MO, he’s local, it works.He throws in the mid 90s with a good curve in the mid 70s, but he has some command issues.He’s plenty projectable.Let me double check if this makes sense: Texas usually takes the BPA; money shouldn’t be a problem and they like their fire-ballers, yep, Miller does makes sense.

Mike Minor has been rumored all over the first round, but there is no clear consensus on who that one team is who takes him. The Indians want Miller, but he won’t get there.So, it will be the best college player on their board.The question is who is the top college arm on their board?It could be Minor, Rex Brothers, James Paxton or Eric Arnett.I picked Minor.Mainly because he would fall in my mock if I didn’t put him here (if he doesn’t go here, my prediction is 19 to the Cardinals.Minor is a low ceiling/high floor starter.He throws a low 90s fastball, along with both a slider and curveball, and a good enough changeup.He probably has 4/5 starter upside.

Here’s the first pair of D’back picks.They like to go high upside HSers early, followed by college floor.Borchering has one of the best bats in the draft.He is switch hitter with great bat speed and raw power from both sides.Many believe he will have to eventually move to first but, I think he could stay at third.His speed is average or a little below.His arm is about average as well.

Brothers is a guy I like a lot.He throws his fastball in the mid 90s, he also throws a good slider, with a lot of movement, hasn’t thrown his changeup too much.He’s a rare lefty that can dial his fastball up to 96/97 mph and I think his ceiling is 2/3 starter if he develops his changeup.

Chad James is the guy I’m hoping falls to the ‘Stros at 21, but it’s unlikely he will as he is coveted by the D’backs, Marlins, Cardinals and Blue Jays.The Marlins develop HS pitching very well, so James makes sense here.If Borchering gets to here, I could see the Marlins taking the in-state third basemen.James is a lefty with a low 90s fastball, he has touched 95 mph.He also throws an above-average power curve and above-average changeup.He has plenty of projection.I seriously don’t know why James isn’t considered one of the elite HS arms, but one team will benefit as a result in the 16-22 range.

19. St. Louis Cardinals : James Paxton LHP Kentucky

Word is the Cardinals are leaning left-handed pitcher, the options being: Minor, Brothers, James and Paxton.One of them will fall, and in this scenario it’s the Boras corp. client, Paxton.Paxton throws in the mid-to-high 90s, along with a hard slider and a change, which isn’t worth praising.I don’t like Paxton, lack of a real changeup, command, questionable mechanics, Boras, but it seems like the Cards do, so he’s the pick.

20. Toronto Blue Jays: Eric Arnett RHP Indiana

This was a tough one.I’ve been hearing college arm.The Jays would have liked Jenkins, Minor or Brothers, but none of them fell.I also think Chad James is an option, although history would show the Jays shy away from HS arms in the early rounds, and Matt Hobgood is still an option.Kyle Gibson, post-injury, has been rumored here and I think Mike Trout or Tim Wheeler are options here.Trout has one of the highest upsides amongst position players and Wheeler is the next best college bat.I went with the college arm route and took Arnett, although I am far less than confident with that pick.Arnett is a 6’5” righty, who throws in the mid 90s, he also throws a slider in the high 70s/low 80s which can get batters out.His changeup needs some work.I’m not in love with this selection, but that’s mostly because I’m not in love with Arnett, who has risen this season, after an increase in velocity.I also am not high on his secondary pitches or command, but he has to go somewhere in the first round… I guess, and he could go as high as 15.

21. Houston Astros: Slade Heathcott LHP/OF Texas HS (Texas)

I have gone over this pick again and again.I have changed my mind many times, and I still have no clue.I have studied Astros drafts, particularly last year’s.I have looked at the pool of names, over-and-over again, but still nothing looks right.What does look right is Chad James.He’d be perfect.He’s the top guy on my wish list, but I really don’t think he’s going to last here, and I decided to adhere to my integrity as a blogger (ha) and have him go earlier.I also like Rex Brothers, but he also will probably be gone.There are other names in consideration here: Matt Hobgood would make sense as the next best HS arm, Jared Mitchell is the best athlete, I call Tim Wheeler “the Jason Castro of this draft”, and I started a recent buzz about Mike Trout.Seriously, I participated in John Sickel’s mock draft on Saturday and took Trout with his pick, and since then, a bunch of people have started talking about Trout to the Astros.I would love to see it, but I’m afraid Houston isn’t taking an OF from New Jersey and people just went to John’s website saw the pick, and liked… maybe I’m just being ethnocentric, I don’t know.Anyways, the guy at thebaseballdraftreport.com said, “ a great tip though for any young mockers out there – go with as many off the wall picks as possible because, on the off chance you get lucky and nail one of them, you’ll be lauded as a prophet. Mock drafts almost work counter to basic human nature as people often forget the bad picks, but clearly remember the good ones.”(By the way I suggest thebaseballdraftreport.com to anyone interested in the draft, lots of good insight)I like this idea.Houston is my favorite team, so I am going to hook them up with one of my favorite draft prospects, Slade Heathcott and actually it could happen...Heathcott has one of the five highest upsides in the draft (among position players).However, he has signability issues and character issues, which is why most teams are considering him for the second and third rounds.The Yankees, among other teams are thinking about nabbing Heathcott in the first, due to the lack of solid options.The Astros are also high on Heathcott, plus the all important, Texas factor.So, why can’t the Astros jump on Heathcott?One thing I can tell you about Bobby Heck and the current Astros draft philosophy is, they do not care about the consensus.They will take whoever they believe to be the BPA, and it could be Heathcott.Look at Jason Castro and Jordan Lyles from last draft?Now go look at how they’re doing in their first full season… Jason Castro, by the way, for all you Astros fans, was called up to AA Corpus Christi and will be ready for Wednesday’s game.Heathcott is a five-tool outfielder. According to milb.com, he has “plus hitting ability”, “plus power to all fields”, above-average speed, plus arm strength and a plus defender.I am going to try hard, to will this pick into reality.

The MO on the Twins: HS bats, college arms.Mier is the kind of toolsy player they like and with the first couple of tiers of college pitchers gone; he seems like an obvious choice.Mier is the top HS shortstop amongst a deep class.He has all the defensive tools to stay at short too.He also has some hitting ability, with a little power to go with it.

Oliver throws a mid 90s fastball along with a plus changeup, but he does not really have a breaking pitch yet.He is also a Boras corp. client, but that shouldn’t bother the Chi Sox.The White Sox have, however, been attached to several of the toolsy outfielders still around: Trout, Everett Williams and Reymond Fuentes.

24. Los Angeles Angels: Tyler Skaggs LHP Santa Monica HS (California)

25. Los Angeles Angels: Mike Trout OF Milville HS (New Jersey)

Another back-to-back pick, remember if Skaggs goes 25 or Trout goes 24, I’m still counting it as a correct pick.The Angels, like the D’backs have an abundance of early round pick, so they could do almost anything with them, but based on their philosophy and lack of talent in their system, they’ll go HS, HS, HS, early and often.Skaggs is a California arm.He throws a low 90s fastball, but should add more velocity as he matures; he is 6’5” 180 and offers plenty of projection, and some.Skaggs also throws a plus curveball in the low 70s.

Trout, like I’ve said is one of the ten best bats in the draft and I’ve heard it said that he is the most likely guy in the class to join the 30-30 club.He’s a five-tooler with solid defensive skills and a plus arm.

Gould just looks like a Brewers pick.I get a Jake Odorizzi vibe from him, in fact.He throws his fastball in the low 90s and can get into the mid 90s a little.He also throws a plus curve and a decent enough changeup.Gould also has that all important, no not “Texas factor”, projection thing.He’s 6’4” 190 after all.

27. SeattleMariners: Drew Storen RHP Stanford

Storen is the top closer in the class, but I think he’ll be drafted as a starter, and the Mariners seem like a team that would do it.He throws his fastball in the low 90s with good movement.He also throws his curve in the low 80s and has an effective changeup.That three pitch mix makes me think starter.The Mariners are big on college players in the draft, by the way.

Purke is easily one of the fifteen best players in the draft, but he wants so much money and there are only so many teams that are going to pay $5 million + for a prospect.Which means someone is going to fall and the likely candidate is Purke.So, some team at the bottom of the draft will luck out, possibly the Red Sox.Purke throws his fastball in the low 90s, touching 95.I’ve said that a lot, I mean, a lot of pitchers throw in the low 90s touching 95.He throws his curve in the high 70s and has a good changeup.He also has good command and a projectable body.

29. New York Yankees: Matt Hobgood RHP Norco HS (California)

New York needs talent and s high school arm as good as Hobgood’s should be tough to pass up.SS/RHP David Renfroe (this year’s Casey Kelly and Slade Heathcott have been rumored here.Hobgood throws his fastball in the low 90s, he also throws a plus curve in the mid 70s, according to milb.com it could be the best curve among HS pitchers in the class.He doesn’t have a changeup though, so he’ll need to work on a third pitch.

The Rays’ position of need on the farm is at catcher, and with Stassi available need happens to coincide with the BPA.Stassi has great instincts and makeup; he also has all the defensive tools behind the plate and an average arm.His bat should be good and he has some power.

The last four years, 85% of Cubs picks in the top 149 pick have been college players.Pollock happens to be a personal favorite of mine, and it is tough to let him go to the Cubs, but the pick makes sense.Pollock has a very advanced approach at the plate, and has gap power.He is an above-average runner with great instincts.He is a good fielder in center with an average arm.

32. Colorado Rockies: Tim Wheeler OF Sacramento State

Kyle Gibson is rumored here but I’m not quite buying it.Although, interesting move for the Rockies, if it happens, more on that later… again, if it happens.Wheeler makes sense as the BPA and a college player; remember what I said about the Rockies and college players?Wheeler makes good contact, with some power at times, and has plus speed.He also has an average arm, but plus range in center.That’s the first round.

Compensation Round A

Now that we’re done with the first round, the blurbs are going to be much shorter and to the point.

33. Seattle Mariners : Matt Davidson 3B Yucaipa HS (California )

Davidson has some of the greatest power potential in the draft, but like Borchering may have to move off first.Personally, I think he can stay at third, though.Seattle tends to lean college, but Davidson’s power bat may be too much to pass up and this pick would continue a stellar draft for the Mariners.

34. Colorado Rockies : Alex Wilson RHP Texas A&M

The Rockies pick for a third time and I have them once again taking a college right hander.Wilson, however, is not much like their first pick Mike Leake.He has a mid 90s fastball, a sometimes plus slider he throws in the mid 80s a curveball and changeup, although the latter two aren’t nearly a useful as the first two.Wilson pitched from the Texas A&M bullpen the second half of the season, but he still profiles as a starter with a pretty high ceiling.

35. Arizona Diamondbacks : Brett Jackson OF California

Jackson is another personal fav.He has a lot of raw power and some hitting ability, but strikes out a lot.He also is an above-average runner.He has a plus arm and is a decent fielder in center.

The Dodgers didn’t have a first round pick, so should go for a lot of upside with this pick… how about Younginer, who was a reliever in high school, but will be tried out as a starter in pro ball.He has a mid 90s fastball and projection.

37. Toronto Blue Jays : Jared Mitchell OF Louisiana State University

Mitchell is one of the very best athletes in the draft, and was a possibility for the Astros in round one.His ceiling is a Carl Crawford type outfielder with more power.

38. Chicago White Sox : Rich Poythress 1B Georgia

Poythress is one of the best pure hitters in the draft.Again I opt against the toolsy OF rumors and I really don’t know why.

39. Milwaukee Brewers : Tommy Joseph C Horizon HS (Arizona )

Joseph has enormous raw power and a chance to play behind the plate, with a plus arm.He seems like a fit for the Brewers to me.

40. Los Angeles Angels : Reymond Fuentes OF Puerto Rico

Fuentes is one of the toolsy outfielders the White Sox are after.However, I think he’s a better fit for the Angels.

41. Arizona Diamondbacks: Mychal Givens SS Plant HS (Florida)

Givens throws 97 mph off a mound, but it seems like most teams now like him as a high upside HS shortstop.Is he a possible five-tooler?

42. Los Angeles Angels: Nick Franklin SS Lake Brantley HS (Florida)

I really like this pick.Franklin does just about everything well, with great makeup and the ability to stay at short long term.

43. Cincinnati Reds : Marc Krauss 3B/OF Ohio

I don’t know that much about Krauss, he is one of the college ranks’ best power hitters , that’s about it.I just love the prospect of the Ohio to Ohio connection here.

44. Texas Rangers : Everett Williams OF McCallum HS (Texas )

Williams is another toolsy outfielder, with good power potential and speed.The Astros were at one time considering him in the first, but have since soured on him a little.

45. Arizona Diamondbacks: Jason Kipnis OF Arizona State

Arizona will take guys from Arizona State, they would love Leake, and Kipnis will sign for slot, an essential for teams with so many early picks.Kipnis has about average tools across the board.

46. Minnesota Twins : Sam Dyson RHP South Carolina

Dyson is a draft-eligible sophomore (Drew Storen is too actually), which means he has added leverage and could potentially be tougher to sign as a result.He has a mid 90s fastball and mid 80s slider.

47. Milwaukee Brewers: Kentrail Davis OF Tennessee

Davis is also a draft-eligible sophomore, he was supposed to be a first rounder at the start of the season, but was only ok.Many believe he would benefit greatly from a junior season.Davis could have a good power/speed combo, but some think he won’t be able to play center in the future, hurting his value.

48. Los Angeles Angels: Kyle Gibson RHP Missouri

Here’s where I have Gibson.It’s really just a stab in the dark.Many think Gibson will still find his way in the first round, but I don’t really want to see a team waste a pick.The Angels have money, multiple picks and are in need of great value.When healthy, Gibson throws a low 90s/high 80s fastball with one of the best sliders in the draft and above-average changeup with above-average command.

49. Pittsburgh Pirates : Tony Sanchez C Boston College

Tony Sanchez is the top college catcher, and is unlikely to fall this far, but he could.If he does, it would work out greatly for the Pirates, who were considering him for the first round.Sanchez has some hit ability, some power, average speed, a decent arm and good skills behind the plate.He’s a prospect you shrug your shoulders at, because, other than his ability to stay behind the plate, no tool really stands out, which is probably why he’s slipped in my mock.But, those tools in a catcher are very useful.The Pirates like to take college players, they could use a catcher in their system (who couldn’t) and Sanchez would be the BPA here.That’s the first sandwich round.

Havens was taken in the sandwich portion of the first round of the 2008 draft.Havens is a likely second basemen in the future, he will play good defense there, and hit for a solid average, and some power.

Already has made his debut for the Mets, the Mets are looking externally for their next closer, but Kunz will be back towards the back-end of their rotation again in 2009.If he shores up his command he could make for a great closer.

22. Freddie Freeman 1B Atl

Really young, but has been one of the best offensive players in his league thus far.I jumped him up to the fourth ranked prospect in the Braves’ organization since last ranking their prospects.

21. Sean West LHSP Fla

West is the best starting pitcher in the Marlins’ system.He throws a mid 90s fastball with some movement, and a power breaking pitch. Some scouts think he is headed to the bullpen because of his awkward arm action but, I still think he can be a number two or three starter.

20. Jon Niese LHSP Nym

Niese has a killer curveball.I also see him as a number three starter.

19. Zach Collier OF Phi

Collier is athletic, and a potential 5-tooler from the 2008 draft.Collier has a ton of ability, but he is too raw right now to get a good read on him for the future.

18. Kyle Drabek RHSP Phi

Drabek has outstanding stuff, and he has recovered from Tommy John Surgery.I expect him to soar through the Phillies system, and this list next season.

Had a breakout season offensively, and has always had the defensive capabilities to be a major league catcher.There is not anyone in Philadelphia standing in his way.

14. Kyle Skipworth C Fla

A four-tool catcher, Skipworth was taken with the sixth pick in the 2008 draft.He has a ton of raw power, and should become one of the best offensive catchers in baseball one day.He is extremely raw, so expect the Marlins to take their time with him.

The best reliever on this list, Tucker has great velocity, and command.Although, Matt Lindstrom is going to start the season replacing Kevin Gregg as the Marlins’ closer, I expect Tucker to finish the season with the job.

12. Matt Dominguez 3B Fla

One of my favorite prospects in all of baseball Dominguez is an exceptional fielder, he also mashed in his first pro season, hitting an unexpected 18 homeruns, while also hitting for a .296 average, and striking out only 68 times.

11. Ike Davis 1B/OF Nym

Another 2008 draftee, Davis has plus, plus power potential.I would love to see him as a corner outfielder, but he may be trapped at first, we’ll see.He should move through the system though.

Another personal favorite, Carrasco finished the season in AAA at the age of 21.He had a great season overall, and has absolutely dominating stuff, including a plus, plus changeup, and top notch fastball.

3. Mike Stanton OF Fla

Stanton hits a lot of homeruns, but strikes out even more frequently.He is extremely athletic in the outfield.He is still only 19, so he has plenty of time to refine his game.He has a lot of potential.

I have nothing bad to say about Heyward.He is only 19, but you can already get a good idea of what he is going to be in the big leagues.I said it in my Braves article, and I will say it again here .300 batting average, 30 HRs, 20 stolen bases, while playing great defense.What else can you ask for?

I’ve created this segment because I love watching young players grow through the system, and contribute at the big league level.Baseball’s minor leagues are the #1 source for most team’s additions.I get the impression that most baseball fans do not have a great understanding of you their team’s next great star is, so, I’m here to clue in.

The impact a great farm system, and great prospects, is currently taking center stage in the baseball universe.The Rays have overcome incredible odds to go from last place, last year, to the cusp of the World Series.How did they do it?The catalysts name is Evan Longoria. The top prospect in Tampa Bay’s farm to start 2008, became the leader of this Rays team, and has come up with big hits all year.Behind Longoria are players like B.J. Upton, Carl Crawford, James Shields, and of course Scott Kazmir, all guys among the Rays best prospects few years ago.

Over the next couple of months I’m going to go team-by-team dissecting the organizations farm system, and pulling out each of their top 15 prospects; starting with the NL East and the AtlantaBraves.Once Baseball America starts to release their top 10 lists I will come back to each team and compare and contrast their list to mine.Come to see an assessment on your favorite team’s future, stay because you are just as interested in prospects as I am.If you ever feel as though I have left someone off, or you disagree with my placement of a prospect, or anything else of that nature, please comment, get your opinion out here, and I’ll consider your thoughts.

**As a disclaimer I just wanted to say a few things.First, I rank players based on their potential talent first and foremost, other factors include: age, what level they play at, their 2008 statistics, team needs, and my own gut feeling.The reason I decided on a top 15 list, despite the fact that many team’s good-decent prospects I can count on one hand, was because some team’s do go 15 or more prospects deep, and I wanted to get to include them as well – the Braves are a great example of this, they go 15-19 prospects deep, and it was tough enough for me to narrow it down to 15, let alone 10.Throughout the offseason trades are bound to happen.I currently have every team’s top 15 lists, but they may be forced to change due to trades.I will try my best to make the appropriate adjustments, and even update lists I’ve already posted as prospects come to and from teams. Also, other than Michael Inoa, I have no 2008 internationally signed players; I also do not feel as though they will be missed.Finally, I would like to say that I am not a professional, I do possess a good amount of information, but I will make mistakes, few, but they will be there.There are also some prospects I may not go into full detail about, but I will hit the mot important players, in my opinion of every organization.Otherwise I hope you enjoy this series, and consistently come here to read it.Good Luck to Everybody’s Favorite Team’s Offseason… go Rays.

Minor League notations in descending order

*AAA/AA signifies triple A, and Double A respectively… duh

*A+ signifies high A ball

*A- signifies low A ball

*A signifies a prospect played at both high, and low A ball throughout the course of the season

It seems as though Carrasco has been towards the top of this list for ages, but somehow he is still only 21, and already pitching in AAA, oh the beauty of international signees.Carrasco excelled this past season advancing to the highest level of the farm while pitching to an ERA of 3.69 over 151 innings, and striking out 155 batters.Carrasco looks like he will make the jump to the big leagues sometime next season, and will immediately jump in as the Phillies’ number two starter.Carrasco has three major league ready pitches including a plus-plus changeup, and his lively fastball.

2. Lou Marson C Age: 22 MLL: AA<o:p></o:p>

Marson’s my favorite prospect in the Phillies system.For awhile he was known best for his defensive capabilities, but is now making a name for himself as a hitter.In 2008 he hit for a .314 BA, and .433 OBP, to go with his .849 OPS, pretty impressive numbers for a defensive catcher.Marson is not a power threat, but makes up for it due to his plate patience, walking 68 times in 2008, and striking out only 70 times.Marson is the Phillies catcher of the –near- future, and will help the team with excellent defense, and his ability to be a difficult out.

3. Kyle Drabek RHSP Age: 21 MLL: a/R<o:p></o:p>

Could Kyle Drabek finally be healthy?Drabek has the best stuff in the Phillies’ system, he throws a 97 mph fastball, and one of the best curveballs south of the major leagues.He finally recovered from Tommy John surgery, and pitched 32 innings in Rookie, and short-season A leagues in 2008.There he threw up a 2.23 ERA, and held opposing hitters to a .156 BA.If Drabek can stay healthy he should continue to put up stellar numbers, he has ace potential, were he to ever reach it.

4. Zach Collier OF Age: 18 MLL: R<o:p></o:p>

Collier was the first player taken by the Phillies in the 2008 draft.He has good power, and should develop more, he also posses great speed, and good base running instincts.Collier is a good fielder with about an average arm; the Phillies may try him in center as he moves through the farm, but will likely play at a corner when he eventually makes it to the big leagues.Collier had mixed success in the rookie league during his pro debut, but it would be hard to make any impressions of him before he played a full season.

Savery throws an above average fastball in the low 90s with good movement.He also throws a changeup, and curveball, both which gage at average.Savery had some success at high A in 2008, throwing 150 innings for an ERA of 4.13, while managing to win 9 games, and striking out 122 batters.I do not currently have a ceiling for Savery, possibly a #3, but I do not think he rises any higher.

I know he is now 26, pitched at the major league level, and could start 2009 in the MLB rotation, but he still qualifies as a rookie, and that makes him a prospect on this list.Happ was amazing last season pitching to an ERA of 3.60 in AAA over the course of 135 innings in AAA, where he struck out 151 batters in that span.Happ throws an average fastball with a velocity range of 88-91 mph, but his out pitch is his solid changeup.As previously mentioned Happ could/should be apart of the rotation in 2008, and could be a solid #3 starter

7. Dominick Brown OF-RF Age: 21 MLL: A-<o:p></o:p>

Brown, or Golson; Golson, or Brown? Hmm… I am going with Brown.He is younger, and has more polish, in my book you can not go wrong with that kind of logic.Brown hit for a BA of .291 in 2008, while posting a .382 OBP, and .798 OPS.Not great numbers, but certainly solid.Especially when you factor in his 72:64 K:BB ratio.Brown hit only 9 HRs, but has the potential to hit more.He also stole 22 bases.Brown will likely find himself in AA next season, and could be with the major league club in late 2010.

8. Greg Golson OF Age: 23 MLL: AA<o:p></o:p>

Golson is one of the most pure talents in this system.The problem: poor pitch recognition.What does poor pitch recognition cause: lots of strikeouts, few walks, and most importantly, wasted talent.Golson hit for a solid average in 2008, .282, but erected a mere .333 OBP, while striking out 130 times, worse still he managed only a .767 OPS.What is good is Golson still managing to hit 13 HRs, and stealing 23 bases; he also has a strong arm, and is a sound fielder.Golson needs to show a big improvement in his plate patience, or he will never become a starter in Philadelphia, he will start next season in either AAA, or back in AA.

9. Anthony Hewitt SS Age: 19 MLL: R<o:p></o:p>

The second 2008 draftee, it was widely believed that Hewitt had has much upside as anyone in the draft.Hewitt has some offensive tools, and should develop solid power.He has above average speed, and is a good base runner.Hewitt has a strong arm, but profiles more as an outfielder, most likely center.He struggled in his first taste of pro baseball, hitting for a poor .197 BA, and striking out a whopping 55 times in 117 at bats.

Donald at number ten shows off the depth the Phillies have in their farm system.Donald is a good fielder with a plus arm, but is likely to third – sooner, rather than later.Donald struggled offensively in 2006, but rebounded in 2007, and kept pace in 2008.He hit a BA of .307, and got on base 39.1 % of the time, while posting a .889 OPS.His next stop will be AAA next season where he will try to prove to the Phillies that he is more than a utility bench player, and deserve a shot at the everyday 3B spot.

11. Travis D’Arnaud C Age: 19 MLL: A-<o:p></o:p>

D’Arnaud is a great fielding catcher, with plus receiving skills, and a terrific arm.He also has some offensive ability, as he hit for a .831 OPS in 239 ABs in low A this season.

12. Anthony Gose OF Age: 18 MLL: R<o:p></o:p>

The third player on this list taken in the 2008 draft, Gose is a high upside high school player.He was also garnering consideration as a pitcher, but the Phillies will make him an outfielder.Right now it is tough to guess what Gose will become as a hitter.He has some power potential, but tends to lose his ability to make contact when he ‘swings for the fences’.He could become a solid line-drive hitter with a high average, or hitter with solid power, but holes in his swing, or he could become nothing at all.Gose is a tremendous fielder, with a great arm, and excellent speed.

13. Mike Taylor OF Age: 23 MLL: A+<o:p></o:p>

Taylor played himself onto this list in 2008.He hit for a .346 BA, .412 OBP, and a .968 OPS.He hit 19 HRs, while stealing 15 bags.He was a bit old for high A, but I will keep an eye on him as he moves on to AA next season.

14. Drew Naylor RHSP Age: 22 MLL: A<o:p></o:p>

Naylor did well during the 2008 campaign, boasting a 3.86 ERA in 165 innings, and striking out 156 batters.He also allowed 16 HRs, or .87HRs/9IP, if my math is right, and it should be.Naylor throws a low 90s sinking fastball to go with a good curveball, and solid changeup.

Carpenter has average stuff, featuring a fastball that ranges between 88, and 92 mph.He alsothrows an average slider, curveball, and spliter – as well as a below average changeup, but he will not need to throw it in the majors because of his spliter.Carpenter also possesses good command of his pitches.Carpenter was shaky in AA, and AAA this season compiling a 4.59 ERA in 153 innings, and striking out only 106.Next season he will have likely repeat AAA, but he should be solid at the back end of the Phillies rotation one day.

Strengths: Other than the already young stars of the Phillies (Utley, Howard, Hamels, Rollins)?They feature a number of pitchers capable of starting in the majors one day.A rotation of: 1. Cole Hamels 2. Carrasco 3. Happ 4. Savery 5. Kyle Kendrick/Carpenter/Naylor would be pretty impressive – especially since I did not even include a possible Drabek appearance.The 2008 draft gave the Phillies three 5-tool prospects, outfielders, to bolster their already toolsy group of position players.They also have a great catcher ready to take over the pitching staff for the major league team; every organization could use one of those.

Weakness: They do not have many.Those pitchers who fail to make the rotation can be moved to the bullpen, and assuming Lidge stays in Philadelphia for awhile they do not need a future closer.They do lack infielders in the system, but that should not hold the major league team back, since they are loaded with stars there.While Utley, Howard, and Rollins dominate the NL, the Phillies can draft some college infielders to fill in at higher levels of the minor leagues.