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September 2017

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Following reports of poor crop conditions in Pakistan, USDA has raised forecast for Pakistan's imports to 2.0 million bales, its highest level in the last eight years.

According to an USDA report, reports of poor crop conditions in Pakistan caused pessimism regarding crop size among many observers over the last several weeks.

“This pessimism has been confirmed by falling deliveries of seed cotton to gins,” the US agricultural agency added in the press release.

Pakistan was widely expected to see higher imports of raw cotton despite a slightly higher import duty, especially as duties on yarn imports were raised substantially.

However, recent reports on cotton shipments from India to Pakistan of at least 600,000 bales (1 bale=170 kgs) bales in November alone indicate that Pakistan's import demand may be substantially larger.

“Outside of Pakistan, the continuing shift of spinning capacity from cotton-producing China to more import-dependent countries such as Vietnam and Bangladesh has also raised the forecast for global trade,” it observed.

“Beyond India, stronger recent demand will benefit Brazil and various West African suppliers especially due to their competitive pricing and relatively large available supplies,” the agency noted.

For 2015/16, world production has been lowered substantially by USDA, mostly due to changes in Pakistan and China.

Consumption and ending stocks are both marginally lower, but trade has been raised 1 million bales, mostly on higher exports from India and Brazil.

At the same time, US production, exports, and ending stocks have been lowered, while the US season-average farm price is projected unchanged at 59 cents/pound. (AR)