How well is Ohio really doing?

Saturday

Apr 2, 2016 at 12:01 AMApr 3, 2016 at 9:34 AM

As he forages the country in his bid to be president, Gov. John Kasich proudly brags about how great things are in Ohio. The second-term Republican accurately talks of the creation of more than 417,000 jobs on his watch since 2011 and efforts to help the poor and others who "live in the shadows." Left unsaid in the Kasich town halls of the campaign trail are the details and context of what's actually going on back home.

Randy Ludlow, The Columbus Dispatch

As he forages the country in his bid to be president, Gov. John Kasich proudly brags about how great things are in Ohio.

The second-term Republican accurately talks of the creation of more than 417,000 jobs on his watch since 2011 and efforts to help the poor and others who “live in the shadows.”

Left unsaid in the Kasich town halls of the campaign trail are the details and context of what’s actually going on back home.

>> John Kasich: Complete coverage of his presidential campaign

Things in Ohio are decidedly average — the state a mid-pack performer — ahead of Kasich’s sixth State of the State address Wednesday evening in Marietta.

The Dispatch’s annual review of economic indicators and poverty ahead of the governor’s speech before a joint session of the General Assembly reflects a mixed bag.

Ohio job growth has been diverse and broad-based — and appears sustainable — but it continues to lag the national growth rate.

Ohioans’ incomes are increasing, but again at a rate trailing the get-ahead gains seen by many Americans.

And the poverty rate has barely budged over the past year. Nearly 16 percent of Ohioans (1.8 million) continue to struggle to secure the necessities of life, with 1.64 million relying on state-provided food assistance, 67,000 fewer than a year ago.

The state has gained 82,500 jobs during the past 12 months, its unemployment rate dwindling to 4.9 percent (the same rate as nationally) from 5.1 percent. About 285,000 people remain out of work, a figure experts say is understated due to those who quit looking.

Ohio’s job growth of 1.56 percent, as calculated from federal data by the W.P. Carey School of Business at Arizona State University, ranks 26th among the states and below the national 1.91-percent average. Still, the new jobs created since the economy cratered in 2008 represent the best stretch in Ohio since the boom of the 1990s.

Nearly half of the new jobs are in education and health (up 21,800) and leisure/hospitality (17,600), a sector in which wages typically can be low. Manufacturing, once one of Ohio’s strengths as a source of good-paying jobs for the middle class, ticked up 5,100. The recovery is spotty. Jobs remain elusive for the young, and 10 Appalachian counties still have unemployment rates in excess of 9 percent. And Ohio has 160,000 fewer jobs than at its all-time peak in 2000.

“I don’t see anything that is suddenly going to push Ohio to the top in terms of job growth. Nor do I see anything that is going to push Ohio down,” said David Berson, senior vice president and chief economist at Columbus-based Nationwide.

Site Selection magazine ranks Ohio as possessing the nation’s fifth-best business climate. Berson credits the state for fostering a business-friendly environment with tax changes and an affordable cost of doing business.

The diversity of new jobs across several sectors suggests Ohio’s can sustain steady — if not booming — growth, Berson said. But another drag on Ohio’s economy is a lack of new residents to create demand for housing and fuel other purchases. Ohio’s population growth of 77,000, or 0.7 percent, since 2010, to a total of 11.6 million, ranks 44th among the states. Population growth tends to follow the availability of jobs.

George Mokrzan, director of economics for Huntington, grades Ohio as a “B” over the past year as it continues to stride away from the recession. Ohio has seen a rebound in manufacturing, including in the important auto sector, to help the state continue to outperform the national average in exports, he said.

Kasich’s camp says Ohio (the seventh-largest state) ranks seventh in the U.S. in the total number of private-sector jobs created since he became governor in 2011. Ohio’s job-growth percentage, 46th nationally between 1990 and 2010, since has risen to an average of 22nd over the past five years, a bigger improvement than all but three states, a spokesman said.

On average, Ohioans receive less for their 40 hours a week than many across the U.S. Ohio’s per-capita personal income rose 2.9 percent to $43,478 last year, placing the state 29th and below the average national growth of 4.4 percent. Ohioans make nearly 10 percent or $4,200 less than the national average. Ohioans’ weekly earnings rank 25th nationally.

While Ohio lagged last year, Mokrzan pointed out that the longer term, from 2009 to 2015, saw Ohioans’ disposable income grow 19.3 percent, above the 16.8-percent national rate.

For many, even a low-paying job would represent progress. Ohio, and the nation, has been slow to turn back poverty, which has encompassed an additional 600,000 Ohioans since 1999. “Too many Ohioans are struggling. Deep, stubborn inequality exists,” said a report last week by One Ohio Now, which advocates increasing taxes to battle social ills.

In 2014, Ohio’s poverty rate stood at 15.6 percent (19th nationally) as compared to the 14.8-percent national rate. State officials recalculated the rate early this year to a 15.8 percent, a statistically insignificant increase. That number translates to 1.786 million people and 340,000 or nearly 12 percent of Ohio families who are scraping to get by. Thirty-five percent of African Americans live in poverty.

Defined as annual incomes of less than $11,770 for an individual and less than $24,250 for a family of four, poverty is at its worst among Ohio households led by single women (45.4 percent) and in urban cores (28 percent). Forty-four percent of children remain eligible for free and reduced-price school lunches, a figure that has not budged since 2010.

Lisa Hamler-Fugitt, executive director, Ohio Association of Foodbanks, said Ohio needs more living-wage jobs that pay twice poverty incomes to ensure self-sufficiency. “I continue to question if this is the new norm,” she said. The number of Ohioans lacking a living wage grew from 3.4 million to 3.8 million between 2009 and 2014, she said. Too many jobs are part-time, barely above minimum wage and don’t offer benefits, she said.

Kasich and state officials have moved to streamline the delivery of public assistance to emphasize jobs and occupational training and crafted child-care regulations to help families keep benefits while making more money. Kasich increased health care for the jobless, and working poor, with an expansion of Medicaid with federal dollars provided through Obamacare.

Medicaid now covers 3 million Ohioans, 662,000 more than prior to the change. The number of Ohioans without health insurance was cut in half, from 17.3 percent to 8.7 percent, from 2012 to 2015, according to an Ohio State University study.

rludlow@dispatch.com

@RandyLudlow

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