Geography: North East, Cleveland. The whole of the Hartlepool council area.

Main population centres: Hartlepool, Seaton Carew, Elwick, Hart.

Profile: Consists of the north eastern port of Hartlepool and the rural villages around it. Historically shipbuilding and steel dominated Hartlepool and it remains an industrial town, with the port, the steel and chemical industries, ship breaking and Hartlepool nuclear power station all important local employers.

Politics: Hartlepool was won by the Conservatives as recently as 1959, but since then is has become a reliable Labour seat, politically most associated with its former MP Peter Mandleson. Between 2002 and 2013 Hartlepool borough council had an elected mayor, held throughout the period by an Independent candidate, Stuart Drummond. Drummond originally stood as a publicity stunt for Hartlepool FC, dressed as their mascot H`Angus the Monkey (named after the local legend that locals hung a monkey as a French spy during the Napoleonic wars) and promising free bananas for school children. He won a shock victory, and was re-elected (without the monkey costume) twice before the position was abolished.

Current MP

IAIN WRIGHT (Labour) Born 1972, Hartlepool. Educated at UCL. Former chartered accountant. Hartlepool councillor from 2002. First elected as MP for Hartlepool in 2004 by-election. PPS to Rosie Winterton 2005-2006, Junior minister in Dept for Communities 2007-2009, Dept for Children, Schools and Families 2009-2010.

Past Results

2010

Con:

10758 (28%)

Lab:

16267 (43%)

LDem:

6533 (17%)

UKIP:

2682 (7%)

Oth:

2002 (5%)

MAJ:

5509 (14%)

2005

Con:

4058 (11%)

Lab:

18251 (52%)

LDem:

10773 (30%)

UKIP:

1256 (4%)

Oth:

1098 (3%)

MAJ:

7478 (21%)

2001

Con:

7935 (21%)

Lab:

22506 (59%)

LDem:

5717 (15%)

Oth:

1893 (5%)

MAJ:

14571 (38%)

1997

Con:

9489 (21%)

Lab:

26997 (61%)

LDem:

6248 (14%)

MAJ:

17508 (39%)

Demographics

2015 Candidates

RICHARD ROYAL (Conservative) Educated at Headlands School and Lancaster University. Corporate affairs manager.

Luke S – incidentally, I meant to ask: how long ago were you first involved with UKIP?

I’d be interested to hear from anyone involved in the 2000s or 1990s.

In Thurrock, clearly Tim Aker worked wonders in almost winning the seat in 2015 and gaining the council; but, having looked back at all of the results, I noticed that it was the BNP who beat UKIP in the seat in 2 GEs so maybe that stalled the growth there could have been. After all Thurrock is unusual in that it’s one of the very few seats where UKIP stood in 20-25 years ago.

J D-P must be the luckiest MP alive, having won three times with tiny majorities and all sub 40%. Looking back further the Tory avg in the seat is 35% for decades, so UKIP may have helped her hang on each time (by taking what were previously Labour votes).

I would suggest you do a quick check of at least some of the seats where UKIP stood in 2017. Their GB share of the vote fell from 12.6% to less than 1.8%. I think that the average in those seats where they stood was about 4%.

It should be noted that in GE 2017, they failed to reach their overall GB share of 12.6% even many of their most competitive seats. For example, they were reduced from 34 % to 8% for Paul Nuttall standing in Boston & Skegness. They were down from 44% to just 8% in Clacton, despite previously holding the seat. Their best result in terms of both overall share and vote retention appears to have been Thurrock where they fell from 32% to 20%.Elsewhere, they failed to reach 12% anywhere.

1.8% at the GE but they only stood in half of Britain’s seats. It would have been more like 3% had they stood everywhere – so 5% isn’t a particularly big change since then.

Nevertheless, if they really have had a mini-recovery then that fits in decently with what has happened politically since the election. Since June there has been a steady stream of small victories for Brexit pragmatists against the Peter Bones of this world. They’ve accepted the need for a divorce bill, for a transitional period, for something to be done about the Irish border, etc etc etc. They’ve moved beyond the “sticking their fingers in their ears and pretending everything will be wonderful” phase – but there is a section of the electorate that hasn’t moved with them.

Instead you merely repeat (twice) what we all know: that the UKIP national share fell (clearly this would have happened even if their vote increased in almost every seat they stood in as they stood in far fewer).

I realise their vote fell.

I was merely asking if it was the case that their average % obtained by their PPCs rose at all. As I can see it still could have done (as I said).

If you didn’t know, you should just have said. I’m sure Luke S or another ex UKIpper will reveal all at some point.

For lots of reasons I suppose. Firstly the lack of knowledge as to where the vote was coming from, in 2012 & 2013 they had success against the Tories, in 2014 against Labour & the Tories… and there wasn’t ever the sampling done to establish what types of areas within a seat were voting UKIP and making it possible to build profiles of target seats.

Of course I’m Professor Hindsight now because I was part of that failing. Though when lots of people tried to mention the need for greater scrutiny of electoral successes and failings they weren’t really given and audience and might as well have been told to just shut up and start talking about immigration instead.

Another issue was the activities of MEPs who felt entitled to their pick of the so called best seats, when more local (and sometimes genuinely better) candidates were available… and also people wanting to stand in the seat where they lived (or in my case where I grew up and still live ‘next door’).

I could write a book on what went on – the good bits, the bad bits, the lessons from success and failure that weren’t learned… but I’m quite busy with other things and most importantly nobody would buy it. Plus I’m quite happy in ‘retirement’ from political activity at the minute, doing my best Peter Hitchens ‘they’re all rubbish’ commentary.

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