I’ll be taking a short break from publication this weekend. There were be no Professional Edition posts Friday to Monday. Free content posts will be posted Friday morning, Saturday and/or early Sunday and Monday. I’ll be back at my desk on Tuesday morning when a regular publication schedule will resume.

The Fed Funds futures continue to point to the first Fed rate hike in late Q3/early Q4 of 2015.The debate is now focused on whether this timing is unrealistic. To be sure, whether we have a hike in September of 2015 or in January of 201…

Let’s take a look at the recent developments in the US energy markets and the seemingly contradictory reaction by equity investors.First of all, while we continue to see significant declines in the US rig count (both oil and gas),

China’s trade report this weekend was dismal. Exports dropped 3.3% vs. economists’ consensus of a 6.3% increase from last year. That is a 10% miss, demonstrating that the global community of professional China watchers do not have a clue about the nati…

Diplomatic efforts are once again under way to establish a more lasting ceasefire in eastern Ukraine via the “Minsk peace talks redux” (see story). While Angela Merkel’s diplomatic efforts should be applauded, chances for success remain poor. The Russi…

While there is almost no coverage of this topic in the financial media and the blogosphere, credit conditions in the Eurozone are showing marked improvements. This is an unpopular view these days, but ignoring the trend results in an incomplete view of…