Harlem, Watts face uncertain future

Reps. Charles Rangel and Maxine Waters have more than just financial scandal in common as they face career-threatening charges before the House ethics committee.

The two House Democrats represent districts that were once iconic centers of African-American culture and history — Harlem and Watts — that have changed dramatically since they were first elected. Rangel’s home base and Waters’s district — now known as South Central — have undergone radical change as blacks now account for one-third of their local population, and each district is at or close to majority Hispanic.

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Those demographic shifts have not posed reelection problems for either Rangel or Waters, who have used their local popularity as the foundation to exercise major clout on Capitol Hill.

But what happens in those districts after Waters, 71, and Rangel, 80, step down is an open question, as the urban areas come to terms with the political impact of Latino immigration and family growth over the past four decades. The redrawing of district boundaries after the 2010 census — and the passing of the torch from a civil rights generation of leaders to a more modern, diverse set of candidates — could bring change to these congressional seats.

Some political experts contend that black politicians are positioned to retain both districts in their current boundaries. Despite the shifting demographics, the local African-American political communities still have a deeper bench and are better organized politically, while Hispanics are less cohesive.

“There is much more political interest by blacks, and less solidarity among Latinos,” said Leslie Sanchez, a political consultant who has written about Hispanic political influence. “Demography is on the side of Latinos. But it’s still a big step. And it may be another 10 years before they flex their political muscle.”

Despite the success of Antonio Villaraigosa in his second bid for Los Angeles mayor in 2005, Sanchez added, L.A.-based Latinos tend to localize their influence in small and heavily Latino areas. “They lose to blacks in mixed areas, because of entrenched political interests.”

In fact, each of the four Latinos in Congress from Los Angeles County represent a constituency that is at least 65 percent Hispanic. And Chinese-American Rep. Judy Chu pulled off a stunning upset last year when she won a special election for the 64 percent Hispanic seat, which was vacated by Labor Secretary Hilda Solis — showing that these seats are not always a slam-dunk for Hispanic candidates.

Rangel, for his part, has prospered politically by appealing to activist white liberals and factions of Caribbean-based constituencies in his district.

“White voters are comfortable working with African-Americans, and black officials are used to that juggle. Blacks and Hispanics inherently are watching each other,” said a New York political expert.

But a major wild card looms for minority groups in both New York and California, as well as in several other states with unpredictable partisan dynamics. That is redistricting, a fierce and often unpredictable political showdown, which can be fatal for some local politicians but can assure a decade of challenge-free incumbency for others. Starting early next year, most states will be required to redraw their political boundaries based on the results of this year’s census.