Inside the Star

Lebanon on brink as tribunal moves to name suspects

With bullet holes still scarring its buildings from recent wars, Lebanon is heading toward a crisis that could derail its unsteady progress to stability. And at the centre of the storm is a Canadian-led tribunal that some fear is pushing it toward the edge.

With bullet holes still scarring its buildings from recent wars, Lebanon is heading toward a crisis that could derail its unsteady progress to stability. And at the centre of the storm is a Canadian-led tribunal that some fear is pushing it toward the edge.

The UN-backed tribunal to investigate the 2005 assassination of former Lebanese prime minister Rafik Hariri is expected to indict up to six members of the militant group Hezbollah within a month. But the backlash from the powerful Shiite military and political faction — which controls a large army and stockpile of weapons —raised anxiety that the fragmented country could slide back to the wars that have devastated it in the past.

“Mistaken (are those) who think that we will allow the arrest or detention of any of our fighters,” Hezbollah leader Sheik Hassan Nasrallah told a cheering crowd last week. “Any hand that will touch any of them will be cut off.”

Although Lebanon is a small country, its volatile neighbors Iran, Israel and Syria have strong strategic interest in what happens within its borders. The U.S. and Israel are especially keen to head off challenges to Western-leaning Prime Minister Saad Hariri, son of the murdered billionaire premier.

In a sign of Washington’s concern, U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton warned Hezbollah against resorting to violence, saying that “if the goal . . . is to stop the tribunal it won’t work.” Western officials emphasize that the probe was created by the UN and is not under Lebanon’s control. France has joined the chorus calling for “no impunity” for those guilty of the truck bombing that killed Hariri and 22 others on Beirut’s fashionable waterfront.

“The country could be on the brink of civil war, and the tribunal is at the heart of it,” said Chibli Mallat, a Lebanese-born law professor at University of Utah who was involved in the creation of the international probe. “Its silence is adding to the rumours. We’ve been waiting five years and nothing has happened. The lack of information is making it worse.”

The investigation is headed by former Canadian prosecutor Daniel Bellemare, who has kept out of the spotlight since he took over the job, and the tribunal has said that revealing information would jeopardize the case. But it was politically loaded from the start, in a country where up to 250,000 people died in a bloody civil war involving Shiite, Sunni, Druze and Christian factions, resulting in near-anarchy and a military occupation by neighboring Syria.

Hariri was a vocal opponent of Syria’s three-decade military presence, and angry protests after his death led to withdrawal of Syrian troops. Early reports from the tribunal pointed a finger at Syrian intelligence agents, and four Lebanese generals known to be close to Syria were arrested and eventually released.

Meanwhile Hezbollah provoked a 2006 war with Israel which devastated parts of Beirut and south Lebanon, and Lebanese anger against the militants rose. But Hezbollah — also backed and armed by Iran — invested large sums in reconstruction and turned the disaster into a propaganda victory. It has since reportedly beefed up its arsenal and manpower, as well as consolidated its political power. In 2008 at least 80 people were killed in fighting between Hezbollah and pro-government factions, when the militants took over part of Beirut.

Since then Saad Hariri has mended fences with Syria, and Hezbollah has entered a “unity” government. Zeal for the tribunal’s work has ebbed and Syria has called for an end to the probe, insisting it would defend Hezbollah if members were indicted. Nazrallah denounced the tribunal a tool of the U.S. and Israel, and demanded an investigation of “false witnesses.”

The list of indictments may include Mustafa Badreddine, a senior Hezbollah military commander. Suspects who flee may be tried in absentia.

“The situation is very serious,” said Murhaf Jouejati, a Middle East expert at George Washington University. “Hezbollah views the entire affair as an instrument of American power, and it doesn’t want to be dragged down that road (to indictment). It’s urged all Lebanese to resist co-operating with the tribunal.”

The warning is taken seriously by Hezbollah’s opponents. Since Hariri’s murder journalists, politicians and army officers have been attacked and killed by unknown assailants.

But supporters of the tribunal say that its existence is a victory for justice in a country that is struggling to rebuild the rule of law.

“Its presence means that you can’t take justice into your own hands,” said Nadim Shehadi of Chatham House in London, who just returned from Beirut. “People put their faith in the tribunal. It was a useful instrument that allowed (Saad) Hariri to resume normal relations with Syria, and drop all the political accusations. It’s been an alternative to civil strife. It’s not just the assassins of Hariri who are on trial — it’s the whole international justice system.”