PoliticalWisdom: Democratic Comeback, Real or Imagined?

This phase of the campaign was utterly predictable. There are some signs emerging of a Democratic recovery. The questions are: Is it real, is it meaningful, and will it make much of a difference in the end?

Are Democrats doing better? Are they closing the enthusiasm gap? Why are Republicans exuding less confidence about the Democratic Party’s scheduled root canal on November 2?

There is some obvious perception-framing here. Republicans want to make sure that a 45-seat pick-up is seen as a “win” for the party, particularly when pundits like Charlie Cook talk about a landscape with more than 70 seats in play. (Of course, Cook knows that Democrats will win many of the seats, but when people hear 70, they expect 70)….

By the same token, nothing will hurt Democratic turnout more than a Democratic Party that telegraphs losses. If the election seems more competitive than it is, more Democrats will vote. If it seems as if their votes will be wasted, if Republicans are simply going to win regardless, then they won’t. This is basic political psychology, but it always seem to kick in in early October.

John Dickerson of Slate notes a broad effort by Democrats to argue that “their efforts to motivate their voters have been paying off”, and continues:

But what does it all mean? First, don’t put away the foul-weather gear. There will be a wave. Republicans will pick up seats in the House and Senate. What’s at issue is the size of the swell (or amplitude, if you’ve been thinking of the wave in mathematical terms). It has gotten smaller.

Even Republicans admit this. This was expected. The question is whether Democrats are “coming home” in a way that will continue, reducing losses far more than expected.
At this stage of a campaign, the losing side always comes up with an exciting theory. (In 2008, the McCain campaign had one.) Its purpose is psychological as well as tactical. People don’t like to lose, and look for hope in the smallest signs, such as the number of bumper stickers in a parking lot. And politics is unpredictable enough—and this year has been plenty crazy—that they have grounds for their hope. Plus, pundits and political strategists are often wrong.