~ a (retired) San Diego Padres blog

Category Archives: projections

By now, you probably know I write a bi-weekly article for The Hardball Times. As I’ve mentioned before, it’s a great opportunity to write for a site with a rich history of producing awesome content.

This year I have a chance to write the San Diego Padres player comments for THT Forecasts, which you should probably buy. I’m taking over the duties from the venerable Geoff Young, so I have my work cut out for me.

It’s a bit of a challenge distilling a player’s future outlook down to a paragraph or two, but it’s a challenge I wouldn’t dare pass up. I should have comments for a good 40 players or so, including a number of prospects. The player comments won’t be available until closer to spring training, but the 2012 projections are already updated and certainly worth the price. The comments are just an added bonus.

Along with the 2012 projections, you also get a long-term (six year) forecast for every player, various leaderboards and options to sort the projections, comments from past seasons, and updated in-season projections. If you’re a fantasy player, these are right up your alley.

No, I am not going to do an Abbott and Costello routine. The Padres have had, thus far, a busy offseason with a flurry of trades following Josh Byrnes’ takeover of the front office. Barring another major trade, I believe the Padres are just about set with their 40-man roster. They have one opening and it will likely go to a pitcher since they have a surplus of batters on the 40-man roster.

When taking a look at the roster, what jumps out at me is flexibility. The biggest weakness appears to be middle infield, but tell me something I don’t know. Here is my prediction of the 25-man opening day roster, acknowledging that some moves could still be made:

Notice a glaring omission? Where is Kyle Blanks? There is no way the Padres carry six outfielders plus Guzman on the 25-man roster. This means either a move will be made or Blanks starts the year in Triple-A. This also leaves Blake Tekotte and James Darnell off the big league club. Tekotte, Darnell, and Blanks all in the PCL together is going to be big fun. Wish the team was in Escondido.

The pitching staff offers some depth and flexibility. Anthony Bass is a capable replacement if any of the starters should go down. Street/Gregerson/Cashner should provide a formidable 7-8-9 shutdown. Thatcher and Spence will be used against lefties and occasional righties. Frieri is just gravy.

I took a look at all of the hitters left vs right splits and liked what I saw. This team has lots of batting flexibility and should be able to score runs against RHP and LHP. Forsythe takes the final hitting spot because he can play multiple infield positions and even shortstop in an emergency. Forsythe also has a solid track record against lefties in the minors and the Padres need a bench bat that can hit lefties. Cabrera gets an immediate call-up should Bartlett go down.

Here is my projected lineup against RHP (with career splits vs RHP):

Will Venable – RF

.258/.327/.442/.769

Cameron Maybin – CF

.254/.321/.401/.722

Chase Headley – 3B

.273/.352/.399/.752

Yonder Alonso – 1B

.337/.388/.526/.915

Carlos Quentin – LF

.260/.345/.501/.846

Orlando Hudson – 2B

.285/.356/.427/.782

Nick Hundley – C

.262/.314/.433/.746

Jason Bartlett – SS

.259/.322/.348/.670

With bench vs RHP:

John Baker

.284/.365/.417/.782

Jesus Guzman

.298/.356/.453/.809

Mark Kotsay

.280/.338/.415/.753

Wow, what a difference Alonso and Quentin make for this team against RHP.

Projected lineup against LHP (with career splits vs LHP):

Chris Denorfia – RF

.305/.377/.423/.800

Jason Bartlett – 2B

.312/.378/.427/.805

Jesus Guzman – 1B

.321/.368/.472/.840

Carlos Quentin – LF

.228/.347/.458/.805

Chase Headley – 3B

.260/.322/.376/.697

Nick Hundley – C

.234/.316/.381/.697

Orlando Hudson – 2B

.258/.316/.393/.710

Cameron Maybin – CF

.257/.309/.349/.658

With bench vs LHP:

Mark Kotsay

.274/.322/.395/.717

Logan Forsythe

The additions of Baker, Quentin, and Alonso along with the emergence of Guzman, Maybin, and Hundley give this team perhaps the most potent Padres lineup in several years. I am digging the flexibility.

So, the answer to the question of “Who’s on first”? Clearly, not Rizzo (sorry, couldn’t resist).

Heath Bell has taken over Trevor Hoffman’s closer role about as seamlessly as one could hope for. Acquired in late 2006 from the Mets (with Royce Ring, for Ben Johnson and Jon Adkins), last year was arguably Bell’s finest season to date.

His strikeout rate rose to a career-high 11.1 per nine, while he surrendered just one home run in 70 innings of work. Bell’s career strikeout-to-walk ratio is just over three, which is terrific, but his greatest asset may be home runs allowed.

In his Padres career, Bell has allowed just 12 homers in 311.3 innings. Bell gets a grounder nearly 50% of the time and when he does allow a fly ball it only leaves the park eight percent of the time.

Bell wants to stay in San Diego long-term, and potentially at a discount. It’ll always be a bit dangerous locking up a mid-thirties reliever to a lengthy, high priced deal. But if the price is right, there’s no reason the Padres won’t extend Bell.

Gregerson’s put up a 3.23 ERA so far in San Diego. That’s fine, but for a reliever in Petco Park it’s not anything astronomical. The encouraging thing, though, is that Gregerson has been much better than that.

He’s struckout nearly 11 per nine, walked just three, and allowed just 11 homers in 153.3 innings. Gregerson’s career FIP is 2.68, his career xFIP is 2.92, and his career tERA is 2.50. It wouldn’t be surprising to see Gregerson’s ERA fall this season even if his peripheral numbers stay the same (or drop slightly).

Luke Gregerson projection: 75 innings, 2.50 ERA

Mike Adams

While Luke Gregerson has been great, Mike Adams has been arguably just as good. In 169 innings for the Padres, Adams has K’ed 192 while walking 50 and giving up just 10 home runs. Adams has had a minuscule 1.81 ERA with the Padres.

You may be noticing a trend in the back-end of this bullpen – all these guys have great strikeout, walk, and home runs rates. Those are three pretty important aspects of pitching, and a big reason why the Pads bullpen has been so strong of late.

I wouldn’t be surprised if, unlike Gregerson, Adams’ ERA – and overall effectiveness – comes back to Earth a little in 2011. Still, there’s a lot of room for regression before becoming ordinary when you’re talking about a guy whose ERA hovers below two.

Mike Adams projection: 60 innings, 2.60 ERA

Ernesto Frieri

Ernesto Frieri turned heads last season with some electric stuff, striking out 41 batters in 31.7 innings. The Padres toyed with Frieri a bit in the minors, switching him between starter and reliever a few times. He wasn’t bad as a starter, but it looks like the pen may be where he ends up.

Frieri’s walk rate worries you a bit, though. He walked 3.6 per nine in his minor league career, including a 4.3 BB/9 last year in Portland. Combined with walk issues last year in the big league call-up – he walked 17 in 31.7 inn. – you could justifiably be a little concerned.

That said, Frieri shouldn’t carry too much weight on his shoulders in this pen, and he can continue to develop himself in the middle innings. If he can harness his control and continue to make bats miss, he’ll be able to step into a late innings role when needed.

Ernesto Frieri projection: 50 innings, 3.23 ERA

Joe Thatcher

Take away a horrendous 25.7 innings in 2008 (Thatcher had a 8.42 ERA that season, allowing 42 hits) and Joe Thatcher has been quite dominant for the Padres. In 35 innings of work last season, he put up a 6.42 strikeout-to-walk ratio.

While the left-handed Thatcher has been tough on lefties (.223/.282/.376), he’s been almost just as good against righties (.255/.330/.324). He’s much more likely to strike out a lefty, but interestingly righties have hit him for less power (small samples, beware).

Thatcher will be a go-to guy against tough left-handers, but it’s nice to know that if a righty comes up it doesn’t equal an automatic hook. Thatcher has had some shoulder issues this spring and could start the season on the DL.

Joe Thatcher projection: 40 innings, 2.90 ERA

Chad Qualls

Chad Qualls struggled mightily last year, splitting time between Arizona and Tampa Bay and posting a 7.32 ERA in 59 innings. Before last season, Qualls had been a highly effective reliever, with a K/BB ratio just over three and a 3.32 ERA.

While there must be concerns about Qualls future after such a horrible year, there are reasons for optimism. His peripherals really weren’t all that bad last season – 7.5 K/9, 3.2 BB/9, 1.1 HR/9. A drop-off from his previous totals, yes, but certainly not worthy of an ERA above seven. In fact, Qualls’ FIP was a respectable 4.13 last season.

What hurt Qualls last season was a BABiP that rose to .386 (career, .303) and a left-on-base percentage of 53 percent (career, 72 percent). Some of that is probably attributable to Qualls declining performance, but a good portion is probably good ol’ randomness, and those numbers should come back toward average this season.

Mat Latos, the 23 year old right-hander, transformed from the The Future to The Present during the course of the 2010 season. The young righty threw 184.7 innings, logging at 2.92 ERA while striking out 189, walking 50, and giving up 16 homers.

A 2.92 ERA can come in many forms, especially when a guy spends a significant amount of time pitching in the friendly confines of Petco Park. Latos earned every bit of it, though, with very solid peripherals across the board. He struck a lot of batters, didn’t walk many, and didn’t allow many homers. That recipe will succeed just about anywhere.

Further, if there were any worries that Latos’ success was a product of Petco’s heavy air, consider that he threw 112 innings on the road and only 73 at home. His road ERA was a respectable 3.14, and his peripherals were actually better at visiting venues than at home.

There’s every reason to expect a “sophomore slump” in 2011 – simple regression to the mean, injuries, fatigue after a near 200 inning campaign. Then again, Latos is a special talent, and he’ll have every chance to come up big again for the Padres. They’ll definitely need him.

Mat Latos projection: 3.23 ERA, 185 innings

Clayton Richard

While Latos is a power pitcher, Clayton Richard relies more on finesse. Still, Richard is pretty adept at his craft – he knows what he’s doing out there. He struck out just under seven per nine last season and walked 3.5. He kept the ball in the park, too, allowing only 16 homers in 210.7 innings.

Richard’s 3.92 ERA is not nearly as shiny as Latos’, especially considering he spent more time at home than on the road. Still, he’s your prototypical lefty innings eater, and that has value in the middle of the rotation.

When you consider he’s provided almost as much value for the Padres as Jake Peavy has for the White Sox since the trade – Richard came over, along with three others, for Peavy in July of ‘09 – at a fraction of the cost, it makes things that much sweeter.

Clayton Richard projection: 3.50 ERA, 190 innings

Aaron Harang

Aaron Harang has two issues to overcome this season – injuries and performance. Those are two semi-big issues for a base ball pitcher. The big 6-7, 230 pound right-hander threw just 111.7 innings last year with the Reds, with an ERA north of five and a K/BB ratio just over two. And he’s always had issues with the long ball.

While that may not sound like a ringing endorsement for Harang’s future in San Diego, it isn’t all bad. For just $3.5 million on the free agent market, he’s worth the risk. This guy was pretty valuable from 2005 through 2009. If he stays healthy and recaptures some of his past glory, he could be a perfect fit in the middle of the rotation. He has a career ground ball rate of just 38 percent (career 1.22 HR/9), so Petco might be just what the doctor ordered.

Harang is much better as a fifth or sixth option, and in this rotation, he’s more than that. I mean, it’s good that he’s here and all, but the Padres are counting on Harang and he’s a wildcard at best.

Aaron Harang projection: 4.23 ERA, 131 innings

Wade LeBlanc

Wade LeBlanc is a left-hander very much in the mold of Clayton Richard. He’s posted similar strikeout and walk numbers to the Padres other lefty. However, LeBlanc has shown much less velocity, sitting around 86 miles per hour with the heater. Further, his groundball rate (36 percent) and home run issues (1.6/9) are particularly worrisome.

A pitcher can get by with guts and guile and all that good stuff, but sometimes you just need the ability to blow it by a hitter, and LeBlanc can’t rely on that. It’s much harder to keep hitters off balance when your fastball travels in the mid-eighties.

Still, Leblanc has shown what it takes to at least flirt with success at the big league level, and the Padres may need him to step it up and fortify the back-end of the rotation in 2011.

Wade LeBlanc projection: 4.15 ERA, 140 innings

Fifth/sixth slots

The back-end of the Padres rotation – and really, this could include anyone not named Latos – is largely up for grabs, and will likely come down to who performs better and/or who stays healthy.

The former first rounder, Tim Stauffer, is coming around nicely later in his career. Stauffer started just seven games last season, but overall in 82.7 innings he posted a 1.85 ERA while allowing just three long balls. As a starter in 2009, he wasn’t too bad either, notching a 3.58 ERA in 73 innings. Stauffer’s career groundball rate sits at 46 percent, aiding his solid home run numbers.

Dustin Moseley, the former Yankee and Angel, was picked up in the off-season as a free agent. Like Stauffer, Moseley has experience both out of the rotation and in the pen, and he could fit in either role. Then again, like Stauffer, he also doesn’t strike out many (5.1 K-rate career).

Further, he’s given up 32 homers in 233 innings (though Petco should help that). He could make the rotation, but I’m not sure that’s a scenario you want to draw up.

Lefty Corey Luebke has come into his own in the minors, recording sub-three ERAs in each of the last two seasons. He’s given up just 33 home runs in 430.7 minor league innings, while striking out 361 and walking 100.

He was pretty impressive in a cup of coffee last season for the big club, striking out 18 and walking six in 17.7 innings of work. He may get a chance to rack up some starts for the Padres in 2011, especially if injuries plague a thin Padres staff. Ben is also a big fan.

The San Diego Padres acquired Ryan Ludwick at the trade deadline last season to help bolster their chances of reaching the playoffs. Ludwick responded by accumulating –1 WAR in 59 games played. Check out Ludwick’s performance last year with St. Louis and San Diego.

Team

PA

BA

OBP

SLG

BABIP

ISO

K%

BB%

Cards

314

.281

.343

.484

.325

.203

22.8

7.6

Padres

239

.211

.301

.330

.257

.120

27.3

10

Well, his walk rate went up. Ludwick’s play certainly hurt the Padres down the stretch and was almost embarrassingly bad for an accomplished player. Whether it was Petco or switching teams mid-season or just a prolonged slump, Ludwick bombed in his first effort as Padre.

The good news is that Ludwick is still a pretty good hitter with an established track record, and evaluating someone based on a third of a season can make one look like a fool. While Ludwick probably isn’t the guy who slugged 37 homers in 2008 (he hit a near Pujols-esque .299/.375/.591), he probably is much closer to the player who has hit .272/.343/.487 since 2007 than the version that was on display with the Pads last year.

With Adrian Gonzalez in Boston, Ludwick inherits the the title of second highest paid Padre ($6.8 million, behind Heath Bell) and middle of the order offensive threat. If the Padres are to compete in the NL West, Ludwick will have to come to life and provide the much needed spark the Padres were looking for last year.

Maybin, of course, is not without his warts. He has hit just .246/.313/.380 in about a season’s worth of Major League time. Last year with Florida in 322 plate appearances, he hit .234/.302/.361, striking out 92 times. His career strikeout rate is a staggering 32 percent, far too high for someone who has not yet displayed great power or patience.

Still, the key word is potential with Maybin, who has always been a favorite in the scouting world. He’ll be just 24 years old in April and under Padres control through 2015.

If Maybin can conquer his strikeout issues (not as easy task), he has a chance to develop into a star in center field. Even if he doesn’t develop as planned, Maybin should provide solid glove-work and enough offense to be a solid contributor for San Diego.

Cameron Maybin projection: 600 PAs, .255/.315/.390

Right field

Very quietly Will Venable has been a productive Padre, hitting .252/.325/.418 (106 OPS+) in his early San Diego career.

Venable doesn’t really do anything that stands out, though. He hits for a decent amount of power, has solid patience, and is a good base stealer. He’s also an excellent defender in right, rating above average in both UZR (+17 runs) and DRS (+15) for his career.

He strikes out a bunch (30 percent) and thus hits for a relatively low average, which doesn’t do a lot to promote his value amongst many in the media and baseball world. In the middle of his prime, Venable should be poised to put together another very nice year, though don’t expect to notice it.

Will Venable projection: 500 PAs, .255/.330/.430

Bench

Chris Denorfia is a nice backup outfielder, having spent significant time at all three positions. He’s played center field most frequently though he is probably better suited in a corner. Either way, he can handle any spot in a pinch.

He’s also a pretty good hitter, owner of a 104 career OPS+. Denorfia should see plenty of action spotting all three outfield positions in 2011.

Aaron Cunningham, who came over from Oakland last off-season, should also see his share of playing time this year. Cunningham debuted nicely with San Diego last year, hitting .288/.331/.417 in just 147 PAs, spending time in both corner spots.

Eric Patterson is also an option in the outfield, having spent time in left and center (bat not included).

Over the next few weeks, we’ll preview the 2011 San Diego Padres, starting with the infield and progressing to the men who catch fly balls and finishing with the pitching staff.

Catcher

In 2010, Yorvit Torrealba’s batting average dropped by twenty points, yet his rWAR jumped from .4 to 2.8. You see, Torrealba switched from one of the leagues most hitter-friendly environments (Colorado) to its least, making his slight drop in raw OPS (.732 to .721) look very sweet for the Padres.

Torrealba used his breakout campaign to ink a two year, $6.25 million deal with Texas, leaving the catching duties to Nick Hundley. Hundley was solid last year as well, hitting .249/.308/.418 in just over 300 plate appearances, a slight improvement on his 2009 numbers.

Hundley has no problem showing just what kind of hitter he is. He strikes out often, walks occasionally, and has moderate power when he puts the ball in play. At the catcher spot, for little money, you can live with that.

Backup duties will likely go to Rob Johnson, with the recent retirement of Gregg Zaun. That’s a pretty big offensive drop, as Johnson simply hasn’t shown that he can hit Major League pitching (.200/.282/.281, 534 PAs). Hopefully Hundley stays healthy.

Nick Hundley projection: 410 PAs, .255/.315/./430

First base

Brad Hawpe is an accomplished hitter, and he may as well just forget about replacing Adrian Gonzalez. That’s too much pressure on one’s shoulders, and it’s not like the Padres traded A-Gone because Hawpe became available.

Hawpe has an impressive career line of .279/.373/.490, though he’s spent almost his entire career in Colorado. His career splits:

BA

OBP

SLG

Home

.285

.377

.509

Away

.273

.369

.470

Aided by Coors Field? No doubt. But Hawpe’s offensive output certainly hasn’t been solely a product of thin air. If he can adjust to Petco and perhaps more importantly, playing first base, Hawpe could easily be one of the surprise players on the 2011 Padres. He’s played just 72 innings at first in his Major League career.

Jorge Cantu will likely see time at first, coming off a poor season with Florida and Texas. Cantu’s had plenty of productive years in the past, though, putting up a career .274/.320/.446 line. Cantu also has considerably more experience at first, with over 1500 innings played there (though he isn’t a plus defender anywhere on the diamond).

Orlando Hudson will continue his tour of the National League West, picked up by the Padres on a very reasonable two year, $11.5 million deal ($8M option).

Hudson’s coming off his worst offensive season since 2005, hitting .268/.338/.372 with the Minnesota Twins. However, from 2006 through 2009 Hudson was above average offensively. Hudson has been up and down by the advanced metrics in the field, but he probably rates somewhere just North of average at this point in his career.

David Eckstein will be missed, not so much because of his production but because he really is a fun guy to watch. Eckstein wasn’t terrible in his time in San Diego, but as he enters his late thirties it’s probably a good time to move on.

Eric Patterson came over from Boston in the Adrian deal and will see some time at second. Patterson hasn’t done much with the bat in the majors (.224/.299/.353, 471 PAs). but he’s a versatile enough guy who can play in the infield and outfield. Kevin Frandsen should also see time at second.

Orlando Hudson projection: 550 PAs, .275/.340/.385

Shortstop

The Padres picked up SS Jason Bartlett and a PTBNL from the Tampa Bay Rays for Adam Russell, Cesar Ramos, Brandon Gomes, and Cole Figueroa. The Padres promptly signed Bartlett to a two year, $11 million deal (with vesting option).

Bartlett is a serviceable enough player, who has surrounded one breakout campaign (he hit .320/.389/.490 in 2009) with middling performance. Bartlett won’t have to match his 2009 performance to offer a solid upgrade, as Padres shortstops hit just .244/.306/.360 last season.

The acquisition of Bartlett allows Everth Cabrera to receive some much needed seasoning in the minor leagues. Cabrera could return to the majors and get playing time at short and/or second if things go well for him.

Jason Bartlett projection: 510 PAs, .265/.325/.370

Third base

Chase Headley has not quite lived up to lofty expectations, as he’s actually declined offensively in each of his first three seasons. Last year, he hit just .264/.327/.375, though his performance actually looked solid thanks to a big turnaround in the field.

It’ll take time to see how much of that fielding value was real, though. Most likely, Headley’s bat is going to decide whether he becomes a true cornerstone third basemen or just another guy in the revolving door.

Entering his age-27 season, Headley should be primed for a breakout campaign, and if he can keep up the glove-work Headley could be the Padres most valuable position player in 2011.

Stairs did not get on base as often as I predicted, but hit for a bit more power. He was about replacement level, which is what we (and the Padres) surely expected.

Oscar Salazar

Projection

PA

HR

AVG

OBP

SLG

wOBA

UZR

WAR

180

6

0.280

0.335

0.470

0.350

-3.0

0.5

Actual

PA

HR

AVG

OBP

SLG

wOBA

UZR

WAR

148

3

0.2837

0.318

0.336

0.289

-3.4

-0.2

Prior to the season I wrote:

I like Salazar. He has decent power and average on base skills. It might take Buddy Black a while to recognize it, but Salazar is the best pinch-hit option available to him.

Turns out Salazar was not the best pinch-hit option available to Black, and luckily, it did not take Black long to realize that.

Jerry Hairston

Projection

PA

HR

AVG

OBP

SLG

wOBA

UZR

WAR

275

5

0.255

0.315

0.380

0.310

0.0

0.5

Actual

PA

HR

AVG

OBP

SLG

wOBA

UZR

WAR

476

10

0.244

0.299

0.353

0.287

8.0

1.9

Hairston hit even worse than expected, but his defense this season was great. He derived a lot of value through his versatility, and racked up a lot more playing time than expected. Hairston turned out to be a very solid signing for the Padres.

Yorvit Torrealba

Projected

PA

HR

AVG

OBP

SLG

wOBA

UZR

WAR

240

4

0.245

0.310

0.360

0.295

N/A

0.5

Actual

PA

HR

AVG

OBP

SLG

wOBA

UZR

WAR

363

7

0.271

0.343

0.378

0.320

N/A

2.4

Torrealba had a career year in 2010. Despite moving from Colorado to San Diego, Torrealba had his highest wOBA since 2002. Serious regression should be expected from Torrealba (who is a free agent), but in 2010 he exceeded even the highest of expectations.

With the season over, I am now taking a look back at the pre-season projections I made in March. A few days ago, I looked at my projections for the starting infield. Today I will examine the accuracy of my outfield projections.

Kyle Blanks:

Projection

PA

HR

AVG

OBP

SLG

wOBA

UZR

WAR

500

22

0.265

0.353

0.465

0.360

-5.0

2.0

Actual

PA

HR

AVG

OBP

SLG

wOBA

UZR

WAR

120

3

0.157

0.283

0.324

0.281

-0.2

0.0

Blanks wasa huge disappointment in 2010, and my projection for him was WAY off. Prior to the season I wrote: “More so than my other projections, I nudged Blanks’s numbers upwards from what the projection systems forecast.” I shouldn’t have done that.

Scott Hairston

Projection

PA

HR

AVG

OBP

SLG

wOBA

UZR

WAR

445

16

0.257

0.314

0.448

0.331

2.0

1.3

Actual

PA

HR

AVG

OBP

SLG

wOBA

UZR

WAR

336

10

0.210

0.295

0.346

0.290

0.2

0.4

Another disappointment. Hairston hit some homeruns, but had trouble getting on-base, and again struggled with injuries.

Will Venable

Projected

PA

HR

AVG

OBP

SLG

wOBA

UZR

WAR

472

13

0.253

0.317

0.408

0.320

5.0

1.0

Actual

PA

HR

AVG

OBP

SLG

wOBA

UZR

WAR

445

13

0.245

0.324

0.408

0.324

7.6

2.5

As I did with a few of the infielders, my projections with Venable were pretty accurate (exact HR, and SLG, only 0.04 difference in wOBA), but my conversion to WAR calculations were skewed. I’m not sure what I did, but the math was clearly incorrect. Oh well.

Anthony Gwynn

Projection

PA

HR

AVG

OBP

SLG

wOBA

UZR

WAR

428

3

0.267

0.338

0.345

0.310

8.0

1.8

Actual

PA

HR

AVG

OBP

SLG

wOBA

UZR

WAR

339

3

0.204

0.304

0.287

0.276

12.9

1.7

Gwynn’s bat was even worse than predicted, but he showed that his fantastic fielding season in 2009 was no fluke. Gwynn’s outstanding glove makes him an adequate fourth or fifth outfielder, and a valuable enough player to have on a team.

Prior to the 2010 season, I published a series of projections for San Diego Padres players. At the aggregate level, my projections pegged the Padres for 85 wins, but I did not have enough faith in my projections, and nudged my official estimate down to 80 wins. In retrospect, bumping the Padres up 5 wins would have been a better idea.

Over the next week, I am going to revisit my individual player projections, and examine how Padres players performed relative to expectations. I will start with the infield, the first set of players I projected back in March.

Catcher-Nick Hundley

Projection:

PA

HR

AVG

OBP

SLG

wOBA

UZR

WAR

330

10

0.235

0.300

0.392

0.305

N/A

1.8

Actual:

PA

HR

AVG

OBP

SLG

wOBA

UZR

WAR

307

8

0.249

0.308

0.418

0.308

N/A

1.5

This one I nailed. There was not a single predicted category that Hundley outperformed or underperformed.

First Base-Adrian Gonzalez

Projection

PA

HR

AVG

OBP

SLG

wOBA

UZR

WAR

665

34

0.278

0.374

0.520

0.383

3.0

4.2

Actual

PA

HR

AVG

OBP

SLG

wOBA

UZR

WAR

693

31

0.298

0.393

0.511

0.378

1.1

5.3

Again, not bad on the projection. Adrian’s actual OBP was slightly higher that predicted, and his slugging slightly lower. His actual wOBA (0.378) was not significantly different from my 0.383 prediction. My only real mistake was in translating the wOBA and UZR into WAR, where I clearly made a slight miscalculation, shorting Gonzalez prior to the season.

Second Base-David Eckstein

Projection

PA

HR

AVG

OBP

SLG

wOBA

UZR

WAR

475

3

0.265

0.329

0.341

0.300

-2.5

0.5

Actual

PA

HR

AVG

OBP

SLG

wOBA

UZR

WAR

492

1

0.267

0.321

0.326

0.296

6.2

2.0

Offensively, my projection was dead-on. Defensively, I missed by a bit, but 116 games worth of defensive data is subject to large variance, and helps explain much of the difference in my projected WAR and Eckstein’s actual WAR.

Shortstop-Everth Cabrera

Projected

PA

HR

AVG

OBP

SLG

wOBA

UZR

WAR

517

4

0.260

0.343

0.369

0.323

-5.7

1.5

Actual

PA

HR

AVG

OBP

SLG

wOBA

UZR

WAR

241

1

0.208

0.279

0.278

0.248

0.1

-0.1

Cabrera is my first real miss. He was a huge disappointment, but as I said back in March:

My projection for Cabrera is one with a lot of variance built in. He might record a solid 2.5 WAR season, or he might perform close to replacement level. After 2010, we should have a better idea of how good Cabrera really is.

Unfortunately, Cabrera performed “close to replacement level.” He has the talent to turn things around in 2011, but I do not think the Padres can count on him to be the everyday shortstop going forward.

Third Base-Chase Headley

Projection

PA

HR

AVG

OBP

SLG

wOBA

UZR

WAR

585

14

0.270

0.350

0.421

0.340

-1.0

2.6

Actual

PA

HR

AVG

OBP

SLG

wOBA

UZR

WAR

674

11

0.264

0.327

0.375

0.314

16.5

4.6

Headley greatly underperformed his offensive projection, but accumulated more playing time than predicted and provided shockingly outstanding defense. The result was a 4.6 WAR season that well exceeded my 2.6 WAR projection. Going forward, I believe Headley’s defense will regress, but his offensive performance should improve. There is no reason Headley cannot settle in as a 3-5 WAR third baseman.

Overall, my projections regarding the infield were extremely accurate on the offensive side, while a bit pessimistic on the defensive side.