Democrats counting on turnout for McBride upset

TALLAHASSEE -- Democratic gubernatorial candidate Bill McBride knows he needs a large turnout Tuesday or Gov. Jeb Bush will become the first Republican governor to win re-election in Florida.

McBride's chances of upsetting President Bush's younger brother ride almost entirely on his ability to inspire a big turnout, which has traditionally favored Democrats. Former Gov. Lawton Chiles inspired a record off-year turnout when he narrowly beat Bush for re-election in 1994, but 1998 Democratic nominee Buddy MacKay, who ran a dull campaign, got a low turnout and was routed by Bush.

McBride admitted at a Thursday campaign stop in Port Orange that he has to get a large number of Democrats to the polls to have any shot. An opinion poll released Wednesday showed Bush winning by about 8 percentage points.

But can McBride pull off a Chiles and get voters out, or will he be more like MacKay?

"I think he's closer to Lawton Chiles than Buddy MacKay, but there are a couple of major differences," said Aubrey Jewett, a University of Central Florida political science professor. "He doesn't have a 30-year history with the Florida voting population and he doesn't have the experience."

In 1994, when Chiles beat Bush in Florida's closest gubernatorial race, 66 percent of the registered voters cast ballots -- a record state turnout in a nonpresidential election. The turnout, especially in Democratic dominated Broward County, made the difference for Chiles.

Turnout dropped dramatically in 1998, when only 49 percent of the registered voters participated in the gubernatorial election won easily by Bush over MacKay, who was Chiles' lieutenant governor.

Turnout was the difference. While Bush received 121,000 more votes in 1998 than he had four years earlier, MacKay received 352,000 fewer votes than Chiles had.

There are roughly 400,000 more registered Democrats in Florida than Republicans, but unlike some states where one party dominates, both sides have had success in Florida.

Former President Clinton, a Democrat, carried the state in 1992 and 1996, but President Bush beat Democrat Al Gore by 537 votes in 2000. Both U.S. senators are Democrats, but Bush and five of the other six state Cabinet members are Republican.

Krog, who ran Chiles' successful gubernatorial campaigns, said problems at the polls in September's primary have also reminded voters about the 2000 election that left Florida embarrassed.

The state had a 70 percent turnout in 2000, average for Florida in a presidential year.

The president is returning to the state Saturday to help his brother, who will be in the midst of a three-day bus blitz across Florida.

On Thursday, the Florida governor was campaigning among Jewish voters in South Florida with former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani. The Republican Party is also began televising an ad where Giuliani praises Bush, who plans to start a statewide, three-day bus tour Friday.

McBride also traveled Miami-Dade County on Thursday and criticized the federal government's detainment of more than 200 Haitians who came ashore in Miami earlier this week. He said they should be released while their political asylum requests are considered.

McBride will also be starting a three-day tour of the state Friday, trying to boost turnout.

Democrats are also hoping the early voting being permitted across the state will help. The 10 citizens' initiatives on the ballot could also spike voter interest, but could scare others who fear long lines.

But some things are out of the candidates' hands, such as bad weather, which could keep voters home.

So despite the millions of dollar spent by the politicians and the parties, the whole thing could depend on Mother Nature.