What does 2015 have in store for UK politics?

Predictions of the big political happengs for 2015: In one word (well two) The General Election

London houses of parliament

Advertisements

So what does 2015 have in store for British Politics?

This can be answered in one word (well two): The General Election.

Only one thing is predictable about the 2015 General Election; and that is that it will be the most unpredictable General Election since 1945.

Even seasoned political pundits are not even trying to predict the outcome of this election. The outcome (i.e. the Conservative-LibDem Coalition) of the 2010 election may unexpected and highly unusual within the British political system, however the state of the parties was fairly easy to predict. Let's rewind.... It was easy to predict that the 2010 election would see Labour lose a lot of seats, and The Tories gain a lot of seats, and the Lib Dems come out with roughly the same number of seats as they had in 2005. The exact size of the Labour lose and Conservative gain was difficult to predict, the kind of #Government that came out of it; however, it was at least possible to make predictions.

However, the 2015 election is almost impossible to predict. It is not only hard to predict what Government will be formed after the election, but it is also very hard to predict how the parties will fare.

So what might happen?

1. The Conservatives - currently the largest party. The best they can hope for is to avoid losing many seats. They won't be able to form a Majority Government after the election; however, they could still be the largest party, and that would be a real coup.

2. The Lib Dems - The Conservatives coalition partners. The election in May will be a disaster for them; however, the scale of that is surprisingly hard to predict. In recent by-elections they have struggled to get 5% of the vote; however, how share of the vote relates to seats is complicated. In 2010, they polled a very large % of the vote, but got very seats (relatively). Their share of the vote will collapse in 2015, but whether they will lose many MPs is difficult to predict. It is possible that where they have a sitting MP, who is defending a Constituency, that they may hold the seat. However, in 2010, the Lib Dems held the balance of power; but even if they are in a position of holding the balance of power in 2015, it will be harder for them to do so, as they won't have the popular mandate to act as Kingmakers, if their share of the vote crumbles.

3. Labour - The Opposition. Labour might like to think they can win an overall majority, and govern as a single-party; but Labour haven't won over the public. It could be said that the people don't like The Government, but they don't like Labour either. Labour, are the Party of Opposition, but they are failing to connect with the public - both The Party and The Leader, Ed Milliband. Labour may, although even this is highly uncertain, come out of the election has the largest party, but without a majority, and need to do a deal to form a coalition. This would be difficult.

4. The SNP - The Scottish Nationalists. Despite losing the Referendum, the SNP go into the 2015 election in a far stronger position than any of the 3 established parties. It is hard to predict how well they will do. They could hammer Labour in Scotland, and if they were to do so, they could find themselves as Kingmakers in the British Government. This is a slightly worrying scenario, since a Party that is only interested in Scotland (15% of the UK population) could play a crucial role in forming the next Government.

5. UKIP - finally, UKIP. The Protest Party - if you hate the Government, and Labour aren't winning you over, then there is UKIP. Who knows how well UKIP will do?! It is, primarily, the UKIP factor that makes 2015 the most unpredictable election of our times. A clear possibility is that The Conservative vote does hold up, and they remain the largest single party. But if UKIP make a breakthrough, it is plausible that a Conservative-UKIP Coalition could be formed. Could we see David Cameron remain PM; but Nigel Farage replace Nick Clegg as Deputy PM? It is one possible outcome of 2015, but it is only one of many; and it is very hard to predict what will happen.

The only thing that is predictable about the 2015 election is that it is not predictable.

This website uses profiling (non technical) cookies, also third parties cookies, in order to send advertising messages according to user's preferences. To know our policy or to deny the consent for cookies use click here. If you continue the navigation through accessing each element below or you close this banner you agree to the use of cookies