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In the new NFL, the first step from nothing to playoff contender might be the unexpected early-season home win.

Three of last year's surprise playoff teams -- the Seahawks, Vikings and Colts -- all opened eyes during the first five weeks of the 2012 season by knocking off teams that, based on past performance, they had no business knocking off.

For the Seahawks, it was a 14-12 Week 3 victory over the Packers at CenturyLink Field in a game that, for a lot of fans outside the Coffee Capital of the Western World, provided a preview of just how big Seattle's home-field advantage has become.

(It didn't hurt that the win also came courtesy of a now-infamous blown call by replacement officials that allowed Golden Tate to push off and sort of catch a desperation 24-yard pass from Russell Wilson on the final play.)

Seattle, 1-1 going into the Packers game, went on to finish 11-5 and establish itself as one of the NFC's elite teams.

That same week, the Vikings, coming off a 3-13 season in 2011 and off to a 1-1 start, stunned the 49ers 24-13 at Mall of America Field, kick-starting a 10-6 regular season that made them an NFC wild-card team.

Two weeks later, Indianapolis, helpless and Manning-less the season before, upset the Packers 30-27 at Lucas Oil Stadium when Andrew Luck threw a touchdown pass to Reggie Wayne with 35 seconds left.

The Colts were 1-2 going into that game but won 10 of their last 13 games to become one of the best one-year rags-to-riches stories in NFL history.

So why bring this up now? Because the Jaguars, only a player or 40 from legitimacy, are hosting the Colts today at EverBank Field?

Uh, no.

Because the Bills, recently a team that has played well below its collective talent level, welcome the defending Super Bowl champion Ravens this afternoon at Ralph Wilson Stadium.

The Bills' 1-2 record easily could be reversed had they not allowed the Patriots to march down the field at the end of their Week 1 game and kick a winning field goal with 5 seconds left.

They also easily could be 0-3 if not for EJ Manuel's heroics at the end of a Week 2 win over the Panthers at the Ralph.

That's why they're a 3-point home underdog today against a Ravens team that, even at 2-1, doesn't look much like the one that stormed through last year's AFC playoffs and edged the 49ers in the Harbaugh Bowl.

The fact is that five-year plans are a thing of the past in a league where revolving rosters, injuries and the salary cap have thinned the margin between winning and losing and made it possible for 180-degree turnarounds like the ones the Seahawks, Vikings and Colts executed last season.

The question isn't why pick the Bills today, it's why not?

This isn't the same rampaging, turnover-producing Baltimore defense as in days of yore, and in truth it wasn't last season, either. The Ravens rank 14th overall in total yards allowed, 22nd against the pass and have only one interception through three weeks, although they do still get after the quarterback.

Baltimore already has 11 sacks, including three by resurgent linebacker Terrell Suggs, two each by offseason acquisition Elvis Dumervil and defensive end Arthur Jones, 11/2 by Daryl Smith and one each by Chris Canty and Haloti Ngata, making it difficult to predict where the pressure might come from.

That will be the biggest challenge today for the Bills' offense, along with the questionable durability of C.J. Spiller's knee. Manuel has played surprisingly well, but he's also been sacked nine times, including eight times in last week's 27-20 loss to the Jets, including three times in the fourth quarter when the Bills were trying to rally.

Yes, the Bills are dealing with injuries. They lost cornerback Leodis McKelvin and defensive lineman Marcell Dareus last week, although both should play today, and safety Jairus Byrd could make his 2013 debut.

But the Ravens won't have starting receiver Jacoby Jones and might not know until today whether running back Ray Rice can play.

So given that, and the fact that Joe Flacco (80.0 passer rating) hasn't exactly torn it up since signing a $120 million contract this offseason, they're as ripe as any Super Bowl champion gets.

As recent history has taught us, this is the kind of opportunity a team in transition, a team that looks a lot like the Bills do right now, can pounce on and, perhaps, use to spark a playoff run.