Revised Citrus Forecast is Down as Greening Takes Its Toll on Groves

Friday

Mar 8, 2013 at 9:27 PM

Oranges continue to drop in alarming numbers from trees, carrying the hopes of Florida citrus growers with them.

By KEVIN BOUFFARDTHE LEDGER

WINTER HAVEN | Oranges continue to drop in alarming numbers from trees, carrying the hopes of Florida citrus growers with them."Very few people say, ‘What I'm doing in the grove now is going to keep me in business,' " said Marty McKenna, a Lake Wales grower and chairman of the Florida Citrus Commission, on Friday.McKenna was reacting to another downward revision in the 2012-13 Florida citrus crop from the U.S. Department of Agriculture.The most alarming numbers dealt with the Valencia orange crop, which began harvesting within the past few weeks and will be picked until June. The USDA dropped its projection of this season's Valencias by 4 percent to 72 million boxes, down 10 percent from its initial October forecast.It revised the 2012-13 early- and mid-season orange crop up 1 million boxes to 67 million boxes. But even the addition still puts the early-mid orange crop nearly 10 percent lower than October. The crop forecast is based on a statistical survey of Florida trees, which in late February showed 99 percent of early-mid oranges were picked. The early-mid adjustment reflects actual deliveries to juice processing plants and packinghouses.That lowered this season's total orange crop to 139 million boxes, down 5 percent from the 2011-12 season.The USDA also lowered this season's projected Florida grapefruit harvest 17 million boxes, a 6 percent decline from February and down 16 percent since October. It kept the tangerine crop unchanged from last month at 3.7 million boxes but also 16 percent below October.The completed 2012-13 tangelo harvest ended with 1 million boxes, down nearly 17 percent from October.McKenna and other growers along with scientists attribute the declining crops to the fatal bacterial disease citrus greening, which appears to weaken the trees' ability to hold on to fruit before harvest. USDA pathologist Tim Gottwald at a Wednesday seminar estimated that 80 percent to 90 percent of Florida's groves have some greening infection, many in southern counties with 100 percent infection rates."At this point, my hypothesis is the high drop rates appear to be associated with greening and other diseases, but mostly greening, and do not appear to be related to weather and other things associated with high drop rates in previous seasons," said Gene Albrigo, emeritus professor of horticulture at the Citrus Research and Education Center in Lake Alfred.Weather and other growing conditions resulted in premature drop rates as high as 24 percent in the 1998-99 season, Albrigo said, but that was before greening surfaced in Florida in 2005. Most of this season's drop is coming from trees showing visible greening symptoms, such as defoliation and yellow blotchy mottle on remaining leaves."The concern is with more and more trees showing greening, this (drop rate) might be the new average," he said.The USDA has reported the 2012-13 early-mid premature drop rate was the highest in 43 years, and it has continuously revised its premature drop estimate upward.In January it reported the Valencia drop would be "about average," which it revised to "well above average" last month. On Friday it estimated the Valencia premature drop this season would average 22 percent, the highest in the past decade during non-hurricane seasons.Albrigo and McKenna agreed that growers started this season optimistic that current anti-greening measures would carry the industry through until scientists find better solutions. Growers don't believe that anymore.They also agreed the USDA can't be faulted for the continuing crop revisions because nobody in the citrus industry could have predicted the premature drop problem."It's going to be very hard for the USDA, using their historical data," McKenna said. "If Valencias continue to fall, I would expect the crop number would go down."Tom Spreen, emeritus professor of citrus economics at the University of Florida in Gainesville, agreed the Valencia crop likely would continue to fall, but the economic effects would be mild, at least for the last few months of the 2012-13 season."I think 135 million boxes is still a pretty small crop," he said.But Spreen predicted the cash market price for Valencias, trading about $1.70 per pound solids, would rise only about a nickel and not approach more than $2 per pound solids at the end of last season because of a panic over the sudden drop in orange juice imports.The bigger impact may come in future seasons if the premature drop problem persists, McKenna and Spreen agreed.

[ Kevin Bouffard can be reached at kevin.bouffard@theledger.com or at 863-401-6980. Read more on Florida citrus on his Facebook page, Florida Citrus Witness, http://bit.ly/baxWuU. ]