Welcome back to our continuing monthly examination of foreclosure data for Massachusetts. As we have seen so far in 2016 all the metrics are up again this month. We are now up to 28 straight months of increasing petitions on a year over year basis. This is the 27th time the increase has been at least double digits. Auctions and Foreclosure Deeds continue to consistently rise each month on an annual basis as has been the recent pattern.

As a recap there are three items that are tracked for foreclosures which are the petitions (which is the first step for a foreclosure), the actual auctions scheduled and finally the foreclosure deeds, which is where the bank takes the property back at the auction (when nobody else is willing to buy it at the auction).

We will start off like we normally do by looking at the petitions. As stated above they have now risen for 28 straight months on a year over year basis. Taking a look at the numbers there were 1,002 petitions filed in June 2016 compared to 886 filed in June of 2015 for a modest increase of 13.09%. However since they have increased for over 2 years now looking back to June of 2014 we see that there were 488 petitions filed, which gives an increase of 105% increase over those 2 years, and going back to June of 2013 petitions were at 245 for a 309% jump since that year! Looking at the year so far there have been 6,616 petitions year to date which is up 24.45% over the 5,316 at this point in 2015. Through the end of the first quarter this year petitions had risen on a quarterly basis for 9 straight quarters. The moderation in the increases recently did in fact have Q2 of 2016 go down for the first time in 10 quarters compared to Q1. Q2 had 3249 filings compared to 3367 in Q1 for a small 3.50% decrease, but it is the first quarterly decline since Q3 of 2013 and they may be leveling off some. Note that this doesn’t mean I would expect the year over year increase to stop any time soon. It just might be more seasonal rather than a steady march upwards, for example Q3 was higher than Q4 in 2011, 2012 and 2013 before this steady increase. If things start to hold steady then we would be looking at late 2012 type levels until. I also would not be surprised if this is just a blip either, but we will need to see how the rest of the year plays out.

Next we will look at auctions. Auctions are the most volatile stat overall, but so far this year has been consistently increasing with everything else. In June 2016 there were 887 auctions scheduled compared to 530 in June 2015 giving a 67.36% increase. Year to date they have substantially increased with the 4,648 already scheduled being up 45.84% over the 3,187 auctions announced at this point in 2015.

Finally we will look at the Foreclosure Deeds. You should expect the foreclosure deeds to track pretty well with the increases in petitions with a long lag because of the long timeframe to complete foreclosures in Massachusetts. They have been consistently rising year over year for a long time. This marks the 8th consecutive month that it has happened, as well as 15 of the previous 16. Looking at the data for this month we see that there were 470 Deeds recorded in June 2016 compared to 406 in June of 2015 giving an increase of 15.76%. Looking at the quarterly data deeds had risen for 4 quarters in a row, but like petitions they declined from last quarter. In Q1 there were 1,487 and this quarter they fell to 1,385 for a 6.86% decrease. Similar to the petitions the decrease was small it may show a leveling off. However I’d guess it was just a blip since we still have all those increased petitions moving through the system. I would expect the quarterly data for deeds to trend up for at least 1-2 years based on the previous petition, and to a lesser extent auction, data. Year to date there have been 2,872 foreclosure deeds filed in 2016 compared to only 2,030 at this time in 2015, giving a 41.48% increase year to date.

What Does This Mean For The Market? :

Everything was up again this month with petitions now at 28 months of increases in a row. Even with the small quarterly decline even if things level off around this level then we are back to 2012 levels so it is hardly encouraging overall. As mentioned in most previous reports we do not expect to see any big surge in REOs only because the banks do not want to put a lot of downward pressure on the market by flooding it with their inventory. However with the increases in deeds REO inventory could start to climb as more of these petitions get though the system. Again even with the small quarterly decline in deeds we are at late 2012 levels. Also as mentioned above it is less likely that these will plateau yet since there is a big backlog of increased petitions to work though and since the Massachusetts foreclosure process can be very lengthy, we are only starting to really see the 28 months of increasing petitions working their way though the system. With that being the case there is little reason to not expect a continued increase in the number of completed foreclosures for at least the next 2 years.

Conclusion:

Since petitions continue to climb each month year over year banks will continue to get more houses back in the coming months, and years. Since the foreclosure process will generally take well over a year here we should expect foreclosure deeds to stay high for at least the next 2 years, if not much longer. Even with the quarterly decrease petitions and deeds are at levels that they have not been at for several years so an overall slowdown does not seem all that likely.

Since sustained increase in foreclosure activity is a leading indicator of a market correction we would recommend being skeptical of predictions of endless growth of real estate markets throughout Massachusetts in the foreseeable future. If you read are frequent Market Trend Reportsyou will already know that there is no shortage of examples of weakening markets throughout eastern MA.

To reiterate the advice in our previous articles, if you are thinking about selling a house this year you should consider getting it to market ASAP before these other properties start coming to the market. If a large number of bank owned places start to come onto the market prices could dip and the days on market could start to increase. If this happens you may get hit with the tough situation of selling for less than expected while also taking much longer to sell than you had anticipated. With several markets throughout the region already seeing slower growth, flat growth or even pricing drops this danger is only getting riskier.

Welcome back to our continuing monthly examination of foreclosure data for Massachusetts. As we have seen so far in 2016 all the metrics are up again this month. We are now up to 27 straight months of increasing petitions on a year over year basis. March was the first time the increase was only single digits during the run which then increased last month back into the teens and is higher again this month once again. Auctions and Foreclosure Deeds continue to consistently rise each month on an annual basis as has been the recent pattern.

As a recap there are three items that are tracked for foreclosures which are the petitions (which is the first step for a foreclosure), the actual auctions scheduled and finally the foreclosure deeds, which is where the bank takes the property back at the auction (when nobody else is willing to buy it at the auction).

We will start off like we normally do by looking at the petitions. As stated above they have now risen for 27 straight months on a year over year basis. Taking a look at the numbers there were 1,130 petitions filed in May 2016 compared to 878 filed in May of 2015 for a modest increase of 28.70%. While climbing back to double digits last month after falling to the only single digit increase during the current 27 month run, and now getting back to close to 30% there is some merit to the claims that petitions are moderating to some extent. While increasing the recent increases are relatively small compared to the 70-100% or more increase that were quite common in 2014-15. That being said the previous increases were huge and they are still consistently increasing so while there is some leveling off they definitely have not leveled off. Also However since they have increased for over 2 years now looking back to May of 2014 we see that there were 573 petitions filed, which gives an increase of 97.21% increase over those 2 years, and going back to May of 2013 petitions were at 248 for a 356% jump since that year! Looking at the year so far there have been 5,614 petitions year to date which is up 26.73% over the 4,430 at this point in 2015. Through the end of the first quarter this year petitions had risen on a quarterly basis for 9 straight quarters. The moderation in the increases recently it is possible that might not continue once the last month of the 2nd quarter come out for June. I will actually guess it WILL continue however the increase is likely to be very small, as will any decrease if it in fact does go down.

Next we will look at auctions. Auctions are the most volatile stat overall, but so far this year has been consistently increasing with everything else. In May 2016 there were 875 auctions scheduled compared to 573 in May 2015 giving a 52.71% increase. Year to date they have substantially increased with the 3,761 already scheduled being up 41.55% over the 2,657 auctions announced at this point in 2015.

Finally we will look at the Foreclosure Deeds. You should expect the foreclosure deeds to track pretty well with the increases in petitions with a long lag because of the long timeframe to complete foreclosures in Massachusetts. They have been consistently rising year over year for a long time. This marks the 7th consecutive month that it has happened, as well as 14 of the previous 15. Looking at the data for this month we see that there were 458 Deeds recorded in May 2016 compared to 344 in May of 2015 giving an increase of 33.14%. Year to date there have been 2,402 foreclosure deeds filed in 2016 compared to only 1,624 at this time in 2015, giving a 47.91% increase year to date.

What Does This Mean For The Market? :

Everything was up again this month with petitions climbing back to an almost 30% increase this month after some of the smallest increases in the now 27 month run of increases. Auctions and foreclosure deeds were up by pretty sizable amounts once again. As mentioned in several previous reports we do not expect to see any big surge in REOs only because the banks do not want to put a lot of downward pressure on the market by flooding it with their inventory. However with the pattern of increases in deeds getting bigger and consistent every month REO inventory could start to climb as more of these petitions get though the system. Since the Massachusetts foreclosure process can be very lengthy, we are only really starting to really see some of this 27 months of increasing petitions working their way though the system. With that being the case there is little reason to not expect a continued increase in the number of completed foreclosures for at least the next 2 years.

Conclusion:

Since petitions continue to climb each month year over year banks will continue to get more inventory back in the coming months, and years. Since the foreclosure process will generally take well over a year here we should expect foreclosure deeds to stay high for at least the next 2 years, if not much longer. So far this year we are seeing this prediction of steadily rising completed foreclosures coming to fruition.

Since sustained increase in foreclosure activity is a leading indicator of a market correction we would recommend being skeptical of predictions of endless growth of real estate markets throughout Massachusetts in the foreseeable future. If you read are frequent Market Trend Reports you will already know that there is no shortage of examples of weakening markets throughout eastern MA.

To reiterate the advice in our previous articles, if you are thinking about selling a house this year you should consider getting it to market ASAP before these other properties start coming to the market. If a large number of bank owned places start to come onto the market prices could dip and the days on market could start to increase. If this happens you may get hit with the tough situation of selling for less than expected while also taking much longer to sell than you had anticipated. With several markets throughout the region already seeing slower growth, flat growth or even pricing drops this danger is only getting riskier.

Welcome back to our continuing monthly examination of foreclosure data for Massachusetts. As we have seen the 1st few of months of 2016 all the metrics are up again this month. Starting the 2nd quarter of 2016 we are up to 26 straight months of increasing petitions on a year over year basis. March was the first time the increase was only single digits during the run, but that is back up this month. Auctions and Foreclosure Deeds continue to consistently rise each month as has been the recent pattern.

As a recap there are three items that are tracked for foreclosures which are the petitions (which is the first step for a foreclosure), the actual auctions scheduled and finally the foreclosure deeds, which is where the bank takes the property back at the auction (when nobody else is willing to buy it at the auction).

Let’s start off by looking at the petitions. As stated above they have now risen for 26 straight months on a year over year basis, with all the increases being at least double digits except for last month. Taking a look at the numbers there were 1,117 petitions filed in April 2016 compared to 958 filed in April of 2015 for a modest increase of 16.60%. While climbing back to double digits this month it is fair to point out that this is still a relatively small increase compared to the 70-100% or more increase that were quite common in 2014-15. However since they have increased for over 2 years now looking back to April of 2014 we see that there were 740 petitions filed, which gives an increase of 50.95% increase over those 2 years, and going back to April of 2013 petitions were at 327 for a 242% jump since that year. Looking at the year so far there have been 4,484 petitions year to date which is up 26.2% over the 3,367 at this point in 2015.

Next we will look at auctions. Auctions are the most volatile stat overall, but so far this year has been consistently increasing with everything else. In April 2016 there were 752 auctions scheduled compared to 439 in April 2015 giving a 71.30% increase. Year to date they have substantially increased with the 2,886 already scheduled being up 38.48% over the 2,084 auctions announced at this point in 2015.

Finally we will look at the Foreclosure Deeds. You should expect the foreclosure deeds to track pretty well with the increases in petitions with a long lag because of the long timeframe to complete foreclosures in Massachusetts. They have been consistently rising year over year 6 months in a row as well as 13 of the previous 14 now that the increase is foreclosure petitions has reached the point of working their way through the system. Looking at the data for this month we see that there were 457 Deeds recorded in April 2016 compared to 353 in April of 2015 giving an increase of 29.46%, still pretty large though being less than last months increase. Year to date there have been 1,944 petitions filed in 2016 compared to only 1,280 at this time in 2015, giving a 51.88% increase year to date.

What Does This Mean For The Market? :

Everything was up again this month with petitions climbing back to a double digit increase this month after the smallest increase in the now 26 month run of increases. While still relatively small it was up 10 percentage points over last month. Auctions and foreclosure deeds were up by pretty sizable amounts once again, especially the auctions. As mentioned in several previous reports we do not expect to see any big surge in REOs only because the banks do not want to put a lot of downward pressure on the market by flooding it with their inventory. However with the pattern of increases in deeds getting bigger and consistent every month REO inventory could start to climb as more of these petitions get though the system. Since the Massachusetts foreclosure process can be very lengthy, we are only really starting to really see some of this 26 months of increasing petitions working their way though the system. With that being the case there is little reason to not expect a continued increase in the number of completed foreclosures for at least the next 2 years.

Conclusion:

Since petitions continue to climb each month year over year banks will continue to get more inventory back in the coming months, and years. Since the foreclosure process will generally take well over a year here we should expect foreclosure deeds to stay high for at least the next 2 years, if not much longer. So far this year we are seeing this prediction of steadily rising completed foreclosures coming to fruition.

Since sustained increase in foreclosure activity is a leading indicator of a market correction we would recommend being skeptical of predictions of endless growth of real estate markets throughout Massachusetts in the foreseeable future. If you read are frequent Market Trend Reports you will already know that there is no shortage of examples of weakening markets throughout eastern MA.

To reiterate the advice in our previous articles, if you are thinking about selling a house this year you should consider getting it to market ASAP before these other properties start coming to the market. If a large number of bank owned places start to come onto the market prices could dip and the days on market could start to increase. If this happens you may get hit with the tough situation of selling for less than expected while also taking much longer to sell than you had anticipated. With several markets throughout the region already seeing slower growth, flat growth or even pricing drops this danger is only getting riskier.

Welcome back to our continuing monthly examination of foreclosure data for Massachusetts. As we have seen the 1st couple of months of 2016 all the metrics are up again this month. In February petitions crossed the 2 year mark for year over year increases so now we are up to 25 straight months of increases. The percent increase in those were actually the lowest of the run but now the ones for the later points of the process are increasing a lot more.

As a recap there are three items that are tracked for foreclosures which are the petitions (which is the first step for a foreclosure), the actual auctions scheduled and finally the foreclosure deeds, which is where the bank takes the property back at the auction (when nobody else is willing to buy it at the auction).

Let’s start off by looking at the petitions. As stated above they have now risen for 25 straight months on a year over year basis, with all the increases being at least double digits until this month. Taking a look at the numbers there were 1,179 petitions filed in March 2016 compared to 1108 filed in March of 2015 for a fairly small increase of 6.41%. This is the first single digit increase in the 25 month run. However since they have increased for over 2 years now looking back to March of 2014 we see that there were 660 petitions filed, which gives an increase of 78.64% increase over those 2 years, and going back to March of 2013 petitions were at 283 for a 317% jump over that year. The pundits in the article stated that the small increase over last March is a sign that things are leveling off. However as I pointed out in last month’s report last March was a bit of a spike in petitions being the highest monthly total since 2012 and then taking 6 months for another month to exceed it, and I said that if any month MIGHT end the run this would be it. I also said I did not think that would happen and it did not, but that helps explain the smaller increase relative to previous 24 months.

In addition to ignoring this fact about the March 2015 petition spike there are a few other reasons to not embrace the leveling off theory presented. First with 3,367 petitions year to date they are up 29.8% over the 2,594 at this point in 2015. In addition to that March completes the 1st quarter of 2016 and we now see that they have increased for 9 consecutive quarters (and 10 of the last 11). So in summary despite a big spike this month of last year they are still up year over year, and despite this small increase they are still 30% ahead of last year’s pace while also steadily increasing for about two and a half years. This does not seem to really support a statement that things are leveling off at this point. If this continues for a couple more months than it would be a fair statement, however based on the recent and historical patterns (and no obvious reason why the trends would stop in April) I would predict that they will be up again next month and back into at least low double digits.

Next we will look at auctions. Auctions are the most volatile stat overall, but so far this year has been consistently increasing with everything else. In March 2016 there were 745 auctions scheduled compared to 478 in March 2015 giving a 55.86% increase. Year to date they have increased almost the same as petitions with the 2,134 being up 29.73% over the 1,645 auctions announced at this point in 2015.

Finally we will look at the Foreclosure Deeds. While you would expect the foreclosure deeds to track pretty well with the increases in petitions there will be a long lag because of the long timeframe to complete foreclosures in Massachusetts. Back last year you were not always seeing increases in the deeds but in recent months they have been consistently rising year over year 5 months in a row as well as 12 of the previous 13 and have now gone up the last 4 quarters and 5 of the last 6, while this month’s total is also higher than any month since mid 2012. Looking at the data for this month we see that there were 620 Deeds recorded in March 2016 compared to 359 in March of 2015 giving an increase of 72.7%. Year to date there have been 1,487 petitions filed in 2016 compared to only 927 at this time in 2015, giving a 60.41% increase year to date. Maybe saying that deeds “spiked” is a little misleading since despite being the highest monthly total in almost 4 years it wasn’t a huge jump, it is actually more likely a sign that the recent steady increase in completed foreclosures is starting to ramp up to follow the pattern seen in the petitions back about 18 months ago.

What Does This Mean For The Market? :

Everything was up again this month with petitions being lower than we have seen in awhile but auctions and foreclosure deeds up by pretty sizable amounts. As mentioned in several previous reports we do not expect to see any big surge in REOs only because the banks do not want to put a lot of downward pressure on the market by flooding it with their inventory. However with the pattern of increases in deeds getting bigger and consistent every month REO inventory could start to climb as more of these petitions get though the system. Since the Massachusetts foreclosure process can be very lengthy, we are just starting to really see some of this 2+ years of increasing petitions working their way though the system. With that being the case there is little reason to not expect a continued increase in the number of completed foreclosures for at least the next 2 years.

Conclusion:

Since petitions continue to climb each month year over year banks will continue to get more inventory back in the coming months, and years. Since the foreclosure process will generally take well over a year here we should expect foreclosure deeds to stay high for at least the next 2 years, if not much longer. So far this year, and especially this month, we are starting to see this prediction of steadily rising completed foreclosures coming to fruition.

Since sustained increase in foreclosure activity is a leading indicator of a market correction we would recommend being skeptical of predictions of endless growth of real estate markets throughout Massachusetts in the foreseeable future. If you read are frequentMarket Trend Reports you will already know that there is no shortage of examples of weakening markets throughout eastern MA.

To reiterate the advice in our previous articles, if you are thinking about selling a house this year you should consider getting it to market ASAP before these other properties start coming to the market. If a large number of bank owned places start to come onto the market prices could dip and the days on market could start to increase. If this happens you may get hit with the tough situation of selling for less than expected while also taking much longer to sell than you had anticipated. With several markets throughout the region already seeing slower growth, flat growth or even pricing drops this danger is only getting riskier.

Welcome back to our continuing monthly examination of foreclosure data for Massachusetts. As we saw in last month’s report all of the metrics we track were up starting 2016. Heading into February’s data petitions have now increased year over year for 24 straight, which is the big story as completed foreclosures will continue to increase for a long time as these keep working through the system. I did give some of my initial thoughts on what is going on with this data in our Q&A Saturday at the start of the month, which will be expanded upon in this article.

As a recap there are three items that are tracked for foreclosures which are the petitions (which is the first step for a foreclosure), the actual auctions scheduled and finally the foreclosure deeds, which is where the bank takes the property back at the auction (when nobody else is willing to buy it at the auction).

Let’s start off by looking at the petitions. As stated above they have now risen for 24 straight months on a year over year basis, with all the increases being at least double digits. Taking a look at the numbers there were 1,264 petitions filed in February 2016 compared to only 868 filed in February of 2015 for another big jump of 45.62%. Since they have increased for 2 years looking back to February of 2014 we see that there were 439 petitions filed, which gives an increase of 188% increase over those 2 years. February of 2013 was the last month prior to the current 24 month run of increases and was about the same as the 2015 numbers at 856, with petitions up 47.7% over that year. The article stated that this was the most petitions seen in February since 2012. If the trend continues next month we will start to see these big increases across the 3 previous years. While anything is possible I have no reason to think that the trend will suddenly stop. However last March was a bit of a spike in petitions being the highest monthly total since 2012 and then taking 6 months for another month to exceed it, so there is a possibility that there may not be an increase next month but the trend could pick up again in April. Personally do not think that will be the case, but it is a better possibility than most months.

Next we will look at auctions. Auctions are the most volatile and least useful stat overall, but still do give some useful information. In February 2016 there were 644 auctions scheduled compared to 592 in February 2015 giving an 8.78% increase. A fairly modest increase, but it is worth pointing out that last February auctions increased around 250% over the 2014 level so even a small increase is a big gain over where they had been 2 years ago.

Finally we will look at the Foreclosure Deeds. While the auctions will not necessarily track all that well with the petitions the foreclosure deeds would be expected to track much better. We would expect a significant lag time though as it can easily take 2 years or more to complete a foreclosure in MA. So many of these increases we have seen in petitions have not even started working their way through the pipeline yet. Of course many foreclosures will be completed faster than that and we are seeing increases in deeds more regularly now. Looking at the data we have seen year over year monthly increases for the 4th month in a row now, and only one time in the last year without an increase. For this month we see that there were 519 Deeds recorded in February 2016 compared to 311 in February of 2015 giving an increase of 66.88%. There have been 867 petitions filed in these first 2 months of 2016 compared to only 568 at this time in 2015, giving a 52.64% increase year to date.

What Does This Mean For The Market? :

Everything was up again this month with petitions and foreclosure deeds up by pretty sizable amounts. As mentioned in several previous reports we do not expect to see any big surge in REOs only because the banks do not want to put a lot of downward pressure on the market by flooding it with their inventory. However with the pattern of increases in deeds getting bigger and consistent every month REO inventory could start to climb as more of these petitions get though the system. Since the Massachusetts foreclosure process can be very lengthy, we are still only starting to see some of this 2 years of increasing petitions working their way though the system. With that being the case there is little reason to not expect a continued increase in the number of completed foreclosures for at least the next 2+ years.

Conclusion:

Since petitions continue to climb each month year over year banks will be getting more inventory back in the coming months, and years. Since the foreclosure process will generally take well over a year here we should expect foreclosure deeds to stay high for at least the next 2 years, if not much longer. Since sustained increase in foreclosure activity is a leading indicator of a market correction we would recommend being skeptical of predictions of endless growth of real estate markets throughout Massachusetts in the foreseeable future.

To reiterate the advice in our previous articles, if you are thinking about selling a house this year you should consider getting it to market ASAP before these other properties start coming to the market. If a large number of bank owned places start to come onto the market prices could dip and the days on market could start to increase. If this happens you may get hit with the tough situation of selling for less than expected while also taking much longer to sell than you had anticipated. With several markets throughout the region already seeing slower growth, flat growth or even pricing drops this danger is only getting riskier.

Welcome to our Q & A Saturday video.

In these Q & A Videos we will answer your questions about real estate. Any real estate related topic from questions about selling your house, buying a house, real estate investor questions, land lording questions, local market questions and many others things are all fair game.

Today’s question is “What is going on with Massachusetts Foreclosures?“

In this video Shaun talks about the continuing upward trends in MA foreclosures and what that means for the real estate market.

Some of the main points covered in this video are:

1) The 2 year long steady increase in foreclosure petitions

2) What that means for completed foreclosures

3) The pattern of increasing completed foreclosures

4) Where to find out where you can keep up on these numbers (Hint it is right here!)

Foreclosure activity is a good leading indicator or where the real estate market is going to go. The more bank foreclosure properties on the market the inventory there will be (and that inventory is often at lower prices) which puts downward pressure on the local real estate market. Massachusetts has seen a long steady rise in foreclosure petitions (the 1st step in the foreclosure process) and now is seeing the corresponding steady increase in completed foreclosures as they work their way thought the system. Nobody can say when this will start to impact the market (though if you need our frequently Market Trend Reports you will see many instances where the market is not as strong as you might be lead to believe), but at some point if more and more REOs flood the market things will fall off.

Hope you enjoyed the video and leave any other questions you have about the topic below or any other topics you would like to see covered in future videos. I encourage anyone that has things they would like to talk about to let me know what they are. You can always fill out a contact us form here and put Q & A in the subject, just leave a comment with your questions below here, send an email to info@masshomesale.com, or post it on our Facebook page or Twitter account.

Welcome back to our continuing monthly examination of foreclosure data for Massachusetts. As we saw in last month’s report all of the metrics we track were up for 2015 over 2014, and generally by a lot. Heading into 2016 petitions have now increased year over year for 23 straight, which is the big story as completed foreclosures will continue to increase for a long time as these keep working through the system.

A quick note on the future of these reports before digging into this month’s numbers. Several months ago the original source of data I use for these reports stopped publishing the numbers. They were still available in the same format on a sister site and I did not have any worries about continuing as I had been. However this month they abruptly stopped publishing the data and I did not see another source for awhile (one reason this is coming out later in the month than normal). A new 3rd party source was found and I will keep doing reports as long as I have the data, however for those that read these regularly I just want to warn that they COULD end without warning if I am not able to get the data needed at some point.

As a recap there are three items that are tracked for foreclosures which are the petitions (which is the first step for a foreclosure), the actual auctions scheduled and finally the foreclosure deeds, which is where the bank takes the property back at the auction (when nobody else is willing to buy it at the auction).

Let’s start off by looking at the petitions. As stated above they have now risen for 23 straight months on a year over year basis, with all the increases being at least double digits. Taking a look at the numbers there were 924 petitions filed in January 2016 compared to only 618 filed in January of 2015 for another big jump of 49.51%. Since they have increased for almost 2 years looking back to January of 2014 we see that there were 364 petitions filed then which gives an increase of 153.8% increase over those 2 years. January of 2013 was the 2nd to last month prior to the current 23 month run of increases so that was about the same as we have this year at about 930. If the trend continues for 2 more months we will start to see these big increases across the 3 previous years. While anything is possible I have no reason to think that the trend will suddenly stop.

Next we will look at auctions. Auctions are the most volatile and least useful stat overall, but still do give some useful information as to the progression of these petitions that are flooding the system. In January 2016 there were 745 auctions scheduled in January 2016 compared to 575 in January 2015 giving a 29.56% increase. I do not usually look back past the previous year with auctions as they are volatile and we do not have the same continuous trend we see with the petitions (at least not yet) but it is worth noting the large ~25% increase for the year in 2015 was driven mostly by the huge increases of close to 250% seen in January and February. So seeing a 30% increase on top of that is worth noting. For completion there were 165 in January 2014 so this month is 351.5% higher than 2 years ago.

Finally we will look at the Foreclosure Deeds. Unlike the auctions the foreclosure deeds we would expect to track with the petitions a little better, but with a significant lag time. In MA it can easily take 2 years or more to complete a foreclosure so many of these increases we have seen in petitions have not even started working their way through the pipeline yet. Of course many foreclosures will be completed faster than that and we are seeing increases in deeds more regularly now. We have seen year over year monthly increases for the 3rd month in a row and for the 10th time in 11 months. There was also an annual year over year increase of ~21.5% for 2015 and as also noted last month on a quarterly basis they had been up for 3 in a row and 5 of the previous 6. So it seems that they are starting to settle into a more long term pattern of increase. Specifically for this month we see that there were 348 Deeds recorded in January 2016 compared to 257 in January of 2015 giving an increase of 35.41%.

What Does This Mean For The Market? :

Everything was up this month by pretty sizable amounts. As mentioned in several previous reports we do not expect to see any big surge in REOs only because the banks do not want to put a lot of downward pressure on the market by flooding it with their inventory. However with the pattern of increases in deeds starting to emerge the REO inventory could start to climb since foreclosures in Massachusetts can easily be 1 to 2 years, and often more, we are still only starting to see some of this 23 months of climbing foreclosure petitions getting though the system. With that being the case there is little reason to not expect a continued increase in the number of completed foreclosures for at least the next 2+ years. The question is less if there will be more foreclosed homes as much as it will be when will banks release them to the market.

REO inventory does seem to be up compared to 6-12 months ago, but still much lower than what we saw in say 2012. As more of these petitions filed work their way through the system (remember a 1-1.5 year foreclosure in Massachusetts is fairly fast) I expect the number to keep increasing. When inventory does come on it will weaken the areas around these houses as it will increase inventory overall and these places do tend to sell below non-distressed properties in the area. Over the last couple of years banks have done more work to places to get a price more along full market value, but unless the places were already in very good shape the bank rehabs are usually unimpressive and do not garner 100% of what a nicely done house gets. So as these places sell they will generally go for less than similar homes in the area and will pull the overall market in the area down, how much is the real question.

Conclusion:

Since petitions continue to climb each month year over year banks will be getting more inventory back in the coming months, and years. Since the foreclosure process will generally take well over a year here we should expect foreclosure deeds to stay high for at least the next 2 years, if not much longer. Since sustained increase in foreclosure activity is a leading indicator of a market correction we would recommend being skeptical of predictions of endless growth of real estate markets throughout Massachusetts in the foreseeable future.

To reiterate the advice in our previous articles, if you are thinking about selling a house this year you should consider getting it to market ASAP before these other properties start coming to the market. If a large number of bank owned places start to come onto the market prices could dip and the days on market could start to increase. If this happens you may get hit with the tough situation of selling for less than expected while also taking much longer to sell than you had anticipated. With several markets throughout the region already seeing slower growth, flat growth or even pricing drops this danger is only getting riskier.

Welcome to our Q & A Saturday video.

In these Q & A Videos we will answer your questions about real estate. Any real estate related topic from questions about selling your house, buying a house, real estate investor questions, land lording questions, local market questions and many others things are all fair game.

Today’s question is “Are We in a Real Estate Bubble?“

In this video Shaun discusses what is going on with our local real estate market and if we are in a bubble.

Some of the main points covered in this video are:

1) What is going on the national level

2) How does that compare to the markets in Eastern MA

3) What indicators do we see saying yes or no?

After the great recession and the real estate market crash of last decade people are always wondering if it might happen again. So are we in a real estate bubble? Well nobody can say for sure. In my opinion we are not in a full on bubble, however we are definitely well into the ramp up and one should be conscious of this when looking at buying a property. Nationally I don’t think things are as far into the curve than we are in Massachusetts (and to a lesser extent in New Hampshire). On that level you are seeing a slow-down in the basically unchecked rise in prices the last couple years. Many metro areas have slowed down; however the major Boston Metro (which usually means all of Eastern MA and NH south of Manchester) was the only one I saw that had zero growth.

The other major factor is that foreclosures are only starting to increase on the national level while MA is well entrench in a big rise. Check out our last MA Foreclosure report showing the petitions, auctions and foreclosure deeds are all up significantly for 2015 over 2014. Looking at petitions (the first step in a foreclosure) December 2015 was up over 118% from December 2014, it was also the highest total number filed in a month since 2012, they have climbed quarter over quarter the last 8 quarters and 9 of the last 10 as well. This is all meant to show that foreclosure activity is rising and that is a BIG leading indicator of downward price pressure with the increase in inventory and generally lower prices they sell for.

Hope you enjoyed the video and leave any other questions you have about the topic below or any other topics you would like to see covered in future videos. I encourage anyone that has things they would like to talk about to let me know what they are. You can always fill out a contact us form here and put Q & A in the subject, just leave a comment with your questions below here, send an email to info@masshomesale.com, or post it on our Facebook page or Twitter account.

Welcome back to our continuing monthly examination of foreclosure data for Massachusetts. Petitions have now increased year over year for 22 straight months and since this is the last month of 2015 data they have officially increased in every month of 2015 over what that month was in 2014. Both Auctions and Foreclosure Deeds were up this month and for 2015 overall.

As a recap there are three items that are tracked for foreclosures which are the petitions (which is the first step for a foreclosure), the actual auctions scheduled and finally the foreclosure deeds, which is where the bank takes the property back at the auction (when nobody else is willing to buy it at the auction).

This month we will look at the auction announcements first as they are the least interesting of the statistics. This month saw a decent increase and overall for the year they are up but this is definitely the most volatile number we look at. In 6 of the months we saw small single digit changes, both up and down while the other 6 saw much more sizable increases, especially the first couple with >200% increases. This month there were 563 auctions and 504 back in December 2014 for an 11.71% increase. For the year they were up a lot from 2014 with a 25.20% increase. There were 6,891 auctions scheduled in 2015 compared to the 5,504 in 2014.

Next we will look at the Foreclosure Deeds. Unlike the auctions that saw a moderate increase, but one that was less than the overall annual change, the deeds surged up by an amount far above what the overall 2015 level. In December 2015 469 deeds were filed compared to only 321 in December of 2014 giving a 46.11% increase. Overall in 2015 there were 4,399 deeds filed in 2015 which is a 21.42% increase over the 3,623 filed in 2014.

Beyond the sizable year over year increase this month and the overall annual increases there are some interesting patterns with the foreclosure deed activity in the quarterly data.

Looking at the above graph we see that they have increased quarter over quarter the last 3 and 5 of the last 6. Also that the number of deeds filed in Q4 of 2015 were the most since Q3 of 2012. Granted this level is still far less than it was that quarter but the fact they continue to rise each quarter it could be ramping up to that level again if, as we will see below, more properties keep going into the foreclosure process as well.

Finally let’s talk about the petitions, which have now increased from the previous year for 22 consecutive months. As mentioned previously these are generally pretty large increases which have been by at least double digits every time. In December they were up by one of the largest amounts of this whole period. There were 1,224 filed in December 2015 compared to 561 in December of 2014 for a huge 118.2% increase. This is really big increase and even more noteworthy as these have been going up for well over a year now these increases are on numbers that were already up, and increases from 2013 to 2014 were often quite substantial. In this case back last December was up almost 100% from December of 2013. Looking back to December of 2013 there were 285 petitions filed giving an increase for the 2 years of over 329%. Also the 1,224 this month was the most of any month in 2013-2015.

For the year with this big surge in the last month petitions are up 55.07% when they were only up right at 50.0% through November. So in 2015 there were 11,767 petitions filed compared to 7,588 in 2014. Since we have the full years of data looking back to 2013 there were 5,210 for a 2 year increase of 125.85%.

As with the deed numbers we want to look at the quarterly data over that same range as it paint a very interesting picture. While the deeds are just starting to get momentum in an upward trajectory the petitions are already back to the levels of the late stages of the crisis.

As you can see petitions have risen each of the last 8 quarters and 9 of the last 10. This last quarter is the highest quarterly number since Q4 of 2012 and higher than 3 of the 4 quarters in 2011. I think we would all agree that was before things were improving in the market!

We will have to see how things progress into 2016 but it seems reasonable to assume that deeds will start to go up in the way we see with the petitions now that the lag time of those increases starting early 2014 are popping out the back end now.

What Does This Mean For The Market? :

Everything was back to going up this month and with all the 2015 data in we see large increases over 2014 across the board and very large jumps over the 2013 levels. The quarterly data discussed gives an interesting new perspective on things as you can see with the longer time frames you see a very consistent patter with the deeds. As mentioned in several previous reports we do not expect to see any big surge in REOs only because the banks do not want to put a lot of downward pressure on the market by flooding it with their inventory. However with the large increase in deeds seen in Q4 they may be looking to get things on the market now to take advantage of the spring market before there is any big decline in the market. It will be interesting if the REO inventory does start to climb since foreclosures in Massachusetts can easily be 1 to 1.5 years, and often much more, we are still only starting to see some of this 22 months of climbing foreclosure petitions getting though the system. Given that is the case there is little reason to not expect a continued increase in the number of completed foreclosures for at least the next 2 years. So the question is not as much if there will be many more foreclosed homes as much as it will be when will banks release them to the market.

REO inventory does seem to be up compared to 6-12 months ago, but still much lower than what we saw in say 2012. As more of these petitions filed work their way through the system (remember a 1-1.5 year foreclosure in Massachusetts is fairly fast) I expect the number to keep increasing. When inventory does come on it will weaken the areas around these houses as it will increase inventory overall and these places do tend to sell below non-distressed properties in the area. Over the last couple of years banks have done more work to places to get a price more along full market value, but unless the places were already in very good shape the bank rehabs are usually unimpressive and do not garner 100% of what a nicely done house gets. So as these places sell they will generally go for less than similar homes in the area and will pull the overall market in the area down, how much is the real question.

Conclusion:

Since petitions continue to climb each month year over year as well as quarter over quarter banks will be getting more inventory back in the coming months, and years. Since the foreclosure process will generally take well over a year here we should expect foreclosure deeds to stay high for at least the next 2 years, if not much longer. Since sustained increase in foreclosure activity is a leading indicator of a market correction we would recommend being skeptical of predictions of endless growth of real estate markets throughout Massachusetts in the foreseeable future. Those that read our market trend reports you know that there is plenty of evidence that many local markets are already slowing down or even turning the other way.

To reiterate the advice in our previous articles, if you are thinking about selling a house this year you should consider getting it to market ASAP before these other properties start coming to the market. If a large number of bank owned places start to come onto the market prices could dip and the days on market could start to increase. If this happens you may get hit with the tough situation of selling for less than expected while also taking much longer to sell than you had anticipated. With several markets throughout the region already seeing slower growth, flat growth or even pricing drops this danger is only getting riskier.

Welcome to our first examination of foreclosure trend data for New Hampshire. We have been following Massachusetts data for about a year now but had not found as good a source for data in New Hampshire. While I do not love how all the data is presented this quarterly data is much better than what I have seen elsewhere and hope to make this a regular addition to our reports.

Check out the source data at the end if you want to see more in-depth analysis of other metrics, but in this report we are going to focus just on the foreclosure deeds recorded. There are some interesting discussions on foreclosure initiations and auctions but the lack of raw data makes it hard to do our own analysis so we will not discuss those specifically.

Unlike what we have seen with Massachusetts foreclosures New Hampshire has mostly continued to see year over year declines in most metrics. This has been slowing down but has generally just started to plateau to levels closer to what was seen in the early part of the past real estate crisis. However in the 3rd quarter of 2015 foreclosure deeds had their first year over year quarterly increase since 2011. They were also up over the previous quarter and are at their highest levels since the 2nd quarter of 2014. The 493 foreclosure deeds recorded were a 15% increase from the 3rd quarter of 2014 and a sizable 41% increase from the previous quarter. It is also worth noting that this quarter over quarter increase is very large and unexpected. The normal seasonality has the number of foreclosure deeds fall from Q2 to Q3 so a 41% increase is even more striking. This is the first time that Q3 has been higher than Q2 since 2010, which was a much smaller increase than this.

However, because this was a reverse of the trend, overall foreclosure deeds are still down for the state through the 1st three quarters of 2015 compared to the same time period in 2014. Through three quarters there have been 1,280 foreclosure deeds recorded compared to the 1,595 in 2014 for a 19.75% decrease year over year.

What Does This Mean For The Market? :

Since this is our first time looking at the New Hampshire data we cannot make as good predictions as with the Massachusetts data. However it is interesting to see this quarter having a much different pattern than most of the last few years in New Hampshire. It will be interesting to see what the data looks like next quarter to see if this pattern continues or if it was just a onetime anomaly. If it is a reverse of the trend it could be the initial indicator of a softening market and eventual market correction.

Conclusion:

Since this is the first time with this kind of an increase in a long time it is hard to say exactly what is going on. Things will look a little clearer once we see the data next quarter. At this time I would guess that this is not just a one off and foreclosure activity will start to increase for New Hampshire. In Massachusetts there has been increases in foreclosure petitions for 21 months in a row and all foreclosure metrics are higher than they were in 2014 (petitions, auctions and deeds). Foreclosure deeds specifically are up 19.0% year to date in MA, though November. So why are we talking about Massachusetts foreclosure data in a discussion of the New Hampshire market? The reason I am pointing these things out is that in MA there were signs of market issues as early as 2004 and the bubble was in full deflation mode by 2005, but in most of the country, including New Hampshire, that didn’t really happen until 2006 or later. Therefore I think that there is a good chance that New Hampshire is going to start to see an overall increase in foreclosure activity similar to what started in MA about 1.5 years ago. I feel more confident in this position since there has been more talk on the national level of many markets seeing a small increase in foreclosures.