000
FXHW60 PHFO 031333
AFDHFO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
400 AM HST TUE MAR 3 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHWEST WILL KEEP TRADE WINDS BLOWING
OVER THE ISLANDS. A TROUGH ALOFT WILL MAKE SHOWERS ACTIVE...
ESPECIALLY ON THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII...THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHWEST IS PRODUCING GENTLE TO FRESH TRADE
WINDS ACROSS THE ISLANDS. MOST AREAS OF THE ISLANDS WERE QUITE DRY
OVERNIGHT BUT A NARROW LINE OF SHOWERS OVER KAUAI KEPT THE GARDEN
ISLE WETTER THAN ANYPLACE ELSE. THE SHOWER LINE HAS PARTLY
DISSIPATED AND MOVED OFF TO THE WEST AND FAIR WEATHER NOW PREVAILS
OVER THE ISLANDS. MOSTLY DRY TRADE-WIND WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVER
THE SMALLER ISLANDS TODAY. THE ATMOSPHERE AROUND THE BIG ISLAND
BECAME DRIER AND MORE STABLE OVERNIGHT. THE WEATHER AROUND THE BIG
ISLAND WILL BE LESS ACTIVE TODAY THAN IT HAS BEEN FOR THE PAST
COUPLE OF DAYS BUT THERE WILL STILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY FOR ISOLATED HEAVY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.
A BROAD AND DEEP TROUGH ALOFT WILL PERSIST NORTH OF THE AREA FOR AT
LEAST THE NEXT WEEK. A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WITHIN THE LARGER TROUGH
WILL APPROACH THE ISLANDS FROM THE NORTHWEST STARTING THIS
AFTERNOON. AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME
MORE UNSTABLE AND MOISTURE WILL SPREAD OVER THE ISLANDS FROM THE
SOUTHEAST. ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSHOWERS IS
POSSIBLE WITH THE GREATEST THREAT ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT ON THE BIG
ISLAND. THE TROUGH ALOFT WILL ALSO LIKELY PRODUCE STRONG WINDS AND
SNOW OVER THE HIGH ELEVATIONS ON THE BIG ISLAND.
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL SUBSIDE AGAIN STARTING THURSDAY AS THE
SHORT-WAVE MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. MEANWHILE...A STRONG SURFACE
HIGH WILL BUILD NORTHWEST OF THE AREA. STRENGTHENING TRADE WINDS
WILL BRING DRIER AIR BACK OVER THE ISLANDS THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. THE TRADE WINDS MAY BE QUITE BREEZY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...
AIRMET TANGO IS IN EFFECT FOR HIGH LEVEL TURBULENCE OVER THE AREA
DUE TO THE TROUGH ALOFT. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS MORNING.
MTN OBSC IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP OVER THE BIG ISLAND LATER TODAY.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SPEEDS THROUGH TONIGHT
BUT THE WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN TOMORROW AS A STRONG HIGH BUILDS
NORTHWEST OF THE AREA. THIS WILL LIKELY REQUIRE A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR STRONG TRADE WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS BY TOMORROW NIGHT.
THE TRADE WINDS WILL PRODUCE ROUGH SURF ALONG EAST FACING SHORES.
THIS SURF COULD REQUIRE A HIGH SURF ADVISORY LATER IN THE WEEK.
OTHERWISE SURF IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW THE ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.
NO THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY BUT
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
DONALDSON