12/26/15

There is a palpable
anger in the Mets fan community right now as word filters down that
they are completely out on Yoenis Cespedes. While he's a streaky
hitter, vanished for the final two weeks of the season and the
post-season, and put together a career-stretch that is not
sustainable, the fact remains that the Mets would not have sniffed
the post-season had he not been acquired in the first place. Hope
was razor thin at best that Cespedes was coming back, but in this
case it's not the player but the concept of a middle-of-the-order bat
that has the fans in an uproar.

Justin Upton, for
example, is still out there for the taking and a strong case can be
made that he's a better player than Yoenis Cespedes is anyway. Jason
Heyward was available, and although entering his prime years as he
bolted from the Cardinals, his offensive numbers have been in decline
since his first couple of seasons in Atlanta. Alex Gordon is another
solid piece – better than an Alejandro De Aza, but not in the same
league as the All-Star sluggers the team's fans crave.

Let's take a look at
what the Mets have spent thus far in the off-season:

Let's play a game
for a moment and try an alternate approach with some different cast
members for the 2016 roster:

Wilmer Flores at SS
– $600K

Logan Verrett/Sean
Gilmartin/Rafael Montero at 5th Starter – $600K

Josh Smoker/Dario
Alvarez – $500K

Kirk
Nieuwenhuis/Darrell Ceciliani/Brandon Nimmo – $600K

Dilson Herrera –
$500K

So far that adds up
to a paltry $2.8 million.

Now subtract that
total from the already spent $28.25 million and you have $25.45
million leftover. However, that's not all you have to spend.
There's the departures of Daniel Murphy, the bigger Bartolo Colon
contract and Michael Cuddyer among others that throw another $30
million into the payroll coffers. Obviously some money has to be
budgeted for increases via arbitration to players like Matt Harvey
and Lucas Duda, but the point is that easily $45 million was
available to address payroll decisions.

Now, as the team
showed last year fortunes changed when some veterans were added in
the form of Kelly Johnson and Juan Uribe. They improved further when
Cespedes arrived. Then there were the bullpen arms of Tyler Clippard
and Addison Reed.

The question I'm
raising is not how little the Mets have spent, but whether or not
they've chosen to spend wisely. Wilmer Flores was consistently
praised by the announcers in the post-season for his defense and his
offense was in the upper half of all shortstops in baseball, yet
they've rendered him into a bench player. Everyone assumes the
twice broken leg of Ruben Tejada is coming back as well. Nevermind
that they have Matt Reynolds available and Gavin Cecchini barking at
his heels in AAA. They're banking on a comeback from two breaks to
the same arm on Jerry Blevins. Alejandro De Aza was so lightly
regarded that he was released by the Orioles during the season last
year. Bartolo Colon is a solid pitcher but you could make a case
that a 4.00 ERA could be provided for significantly less money by one
of the triumvirate of other younger starters who could muddle through
until Zack Wheeler returns.

While I'm not
advocating they went with all rookies and unproven players, it seems
they have put a lot of what are apparently very limited payroll
resources into some questionable decisions. First of all, the
manager doesn't seem to know what to do with rookies. Second, as
Johnson and Uribe showed, there is a role for professional role
players. I'm just not sure the De Azas of this world qualify.

Should the Mets have gone in another direction for their roster investments?

I'd just focus in on the spending on Colon and De Aza as being questionable. That's $13M... tack on another $8-$9MM annually and that gets you in the game for Cespedes. To me, Cespedes on a 5 year deal makes all the sense in the world. The need for a big RH bat in the middle of the order supporting our pitching for the next 5 years is clear, and the productivity Yo will bring is not going to be getting cheaper year over year. He's a physical specimen - he's good for another 5 years.

We have 2 more years of Grandy in RF at ~$16MM per, after which that $$ frees up toward the OF too. That's the main conversation I would have with Cespedes - would he be willing to play RF? He belongs there with that arm. I'd like to play him there now, and use Grandy in CF along with Lagares. Grandy can use the days off against RHPs.

I would be very hesitant to second guess Sandy Alderson. When he spends, he almost always spends very wisely. (Although we mostly thought he was crazy when he gave Chris Young - the OF, not the pitcher - $7 million, just look how he came around the minute he left Flushing. Was it something in the water?)

Signing Cabrera, rendering Wilmer a utility super-sub: brilliant. Most analysts say he upgraded the SS position and strengthened the bench. Now he has his SS until Rosario is ready to step in for the ling term.

Trading Niese for Walker: Replaced Murphy with a switch hitting, good offensive 2B, with better glove, range and base-running smarts, and did Niese the favor of giving him an opportunity to pitch in a MLB rotation, which he would have lost at mid-season with the Mets. Good moves all around.

Signing Colon & Blevins: I love it. Colon will be a great #5, entertaining on the field and valuable in the clubhouse. And how could I not like resigning Blevins. I had suggested trading for Blevins 2 weeks before the trade with the Nats, when there wasn't even a scant rumor of anything in the works.

And lastly, De Aza: (Firstly, I don't think he was released by the O's. They traded him, along with some cash, to the Red Sox for a minor leaguer.) Regardless, I do think this was a good and prudent move. I like Parra, but not for 4 years, or even 3. I like Span, but even with a good showcase, his hip is risky, and he would be pretty costly for 2 years or more. I don't care that much for Venable. And Fowler is off the table because I don't want to lose the draft pick. So . . to me, De Aza combines Span's speed with Parra's power at much less cost than either. Against RH pitchers, his OPS (.756) is slightly below Parra's (.767) and well above Span's. (.716) I think he makes a fine platoon partner with Lagares, and with only a 1 year commitment, so if Nimmo has a great first half in Vegas, De Aza is expendable at the deadline.

You can see from the above, although I would have loved to see Sandy bring Cespedes back, overall I think he has spent very wisely and done a good job so far this off season.

Whoaaahh, now hold up there.That is not how I remember things.Your example of Chris Young is a perfect example. $7 million for what he gave the Mets? Don't justify Alderson by what Young did on the Yankees....Whole different ballpark.

I seem to remember a lot of bullpen expenditures that were disasters.

I may be wrong....going just by my memory, but I would welcome a real look into all of Alderson's payment choices and their production.

I have no issues with the money spent. I do have issues with the money not spent. The Mets are quickly moving from a team I would have loved to play for if I were a play to one I would avoid. They're proving there is no commitment to winning.

Fine with Colon starting the 1st half & giving BP innings once Wheeler returns. It's still a very young pitching staff and every indication has been that Bart is a font of knowledge from which to draw. With Edgin returning from TJ, LOOGY Blevins makes sense too.

Cabrera & de Aza, however, make little sense to me. I'm ready to bet on Legares carrying most of the load with an occasional Ceciliani/Nimmo being as productive and infinitely more interesting than de Aza. Wilmer will be the FT SS by mid-summer anway, so Carbrera becomes another expensive sub. (see Brian Joura's Met360 column on Cabrera vs. Flores)

I wanted Cespedes back, but if he's insisting on 6-7 yrs, I understand. The $$ trade off YC vs AC+dA makes no sense otherwise.

I agree with Reese that money wasn't spent wisely. The only move I like like so far are the Niese/Walker deal and Blevins deal. The other moves were money not well spent. Our team needs a cleanup hitter first and foremost and CESPEDES was the only available free agent that could fit that spot in the order and played a position we could have used him at for at most 2 years.

If Winter spending were a "sure thing", the Padres would've run away with the NLW last year. Aside from the money spent, the reviews from the "experts" before OD said that the Pads were clearly the "winners of the Winter". A slight overestimate, no?

Even if the Hot Stove season were over, which it's far from, deciding now how well the Mets have done is WAAAAAYYY premature.

I'm kinda leaning toward's Mack's position. Would have loved another power bat but I still think the FO is positioning for the next 3/4 years and will go with our super pitching which figures in our division to put us in first place or at least battling with the Nats all season giving us "meaningful Sept. baseball" which after all fills Freddy and Saul's pockets and that's what its really all about anyway right. From there see where we are come July and act accordingly.

I think that Cespedes raised enough red flags while he was here to make the club cautious about giving him a very large contract. I understand why they were unwilling to go that far. Once it was clear to the team the numbers he wanted, they decided to move on. I mean to say, sure, I would have been thrilled to get back Cespedes, but I do think there's a point where a wise person steps away from the table on this guy. There's something "off" about him.

I am also okay with the general idea that says there was no "big bat" available to the Mets, or at least one that was also desirable (Upton).

I went into the off-season most concerned about the bullpen, which proved wanting last season, and CF, neither of which were satisfactorily addressed, IMO.

The Walker deal was excellent. I'm okay with Cabrera in isolation; if that's where the money went, and the pen doesn't get addressed, and balls start dropping all over CF and in the gaps, then it's fair to question how it was done.

I still expect the Mets to get a RH bat in the Cuddyer role for $2 million, and maybe resign Clippard or a lesser arm for the pen. Overall, it's boring as hell, but maybe functional.

Sandy sure doesn't buy into the idea that this is an entertainment business, that's for sure.

Lastly, I don't like that Alderson under-values defense; the CF solution is the most disappointing to me. Way too much money for a guy who is a very bad fit for the Mets. If I'm giving Granderson or Conforto a day off, it's against a LHP -- and de Aza can't hit LHP. He's only useful in CF, except he can't go and get the ball. Weird decision.