Study Analyzes
Unprecedented Decline
in Road Fatalities

In May, The University of Michigan’s
Transportation Research Institute released
“Toward Understanding the
Recent Large Reductions in U.S. Road
Fatalities.” The study seeks to explain
the dramatic reduction in U.S. road
fatalities from 2005 to 2009, which
dropped 22 percent – from 43,510 to
33, 963 deaths – during that time period.
A reduction to this degree in such a
short amount a time has never occurred
since road-safety statistics started being
recorded in 1913, with the exception of
reductions during World War II.

By analyzing Fatality Analysis Reporting
System (FARS) data, study
authors Michael Sivak and Brandon
Schoettle were able to identify conditions
that accounted for the largest
reductions in fatalities. Overall, they
examined 269 variables supplied by
FARS and cover 19 of the most interesting
patterns, including reported
alcohol use, inattentive driving, jaywalking,
and young drivers.

The economic downturn was cited as
a possible explanation for changes in
fatality patterns. For example, roads
with a speed limit of 50 mph or higher
recorded greater reductions than
roads with lower limits, which is consistent
with drivers’ efforts to reduce
speeds in order to improve fuel economy.
Fatal accidents during rush hours
also showed greater reductions than
overall accident reduction, possibly
from the impact of the poor economy
on commuter traffic.

Another reason for recorded reductions
was improvement in vehicle safety
measures. Multiple fatalities per crash
and per vehicle fell, which the authors
link to increased usage of airbags in
newer vehicles. Additionally, fatalities for
young drivers fell, possibly due to fewer
young drivers on the road and more
widespread use of the graduated driver
licensing system.

Unfortunately, some of the variables
studied have seen increased fatality
rates since 2005. Increased fatalities
have been linked to motorcycle use,
local roads and streets, alcohol use
and distracted driving. Although great
strides have been made in highway
safety, there are still key problem areas
to be addressed.