Summary: Since their initial release just over
10 years ago, use of genetically modified crops, developed
using recombinant DNA methods, has increased dramatically for
major
commodity crops
such as soy beans, cotton, canola, and corn. Various concerns
have been raised involving issues of human safety, ecosystem
functions,
and economic or political impacts. A possible consequence of
such releases is longer term ecological impacts by establishment
of
plants (as feral escapes), or by movement of transgenes into
weedy or native relatives by gene flow and interbreeding. To
date, opportunities
for long-term establishment of transgenes outside of agroecosystems
has been relatively limited, at least in in the United States and Canada.
Most GM crops (e.g., corn, soybeans) do not persist outside of
cultivation, and gene flow is inhibited because GM crops have
few relatives here. The escape of creeping bentgrass into the
Crooked River National Grassland is a poignant example. Anticipating
continued introductions and greater diversity of GM plants, we
assume that the potential for inadvertent release of transgenes
into wildland ecosystems will likewise increase. Wildland managers
need to better understand how current policies and management
practices could be affected by such releases. To what extent
are wildland managers and planners anticipating the likelihood
and
consequence of such releases? We will conduct a rapid threat
assessment (RTA) to examine potential ecological and socioeconomic
impacts
on wildland ecosystems resulting from an inadvertent release
of genetically modified plants or transgenes. The RTA will be
based
upon plant groups and species with GM representatives already
in the regulatory pipeline, emphasizing those further along the
path to deregulation. Examples will include turf and forage
grasses,
trees, and other groups as appropriate (e.g., Compositae). Because
of their mating system and abundance of feral or native relatives
in wildland ecosystems, we feel these groups represent the most
likely source of potential threats in the near term (e.g., Wipff
2002, Whitney et al. 2006, Williams 2005), and hence drive policy
and regulatory decisions. The RTA will focus “on analysis of
the
process, stress, organism, or activity that has the potential
to do harm,” (RTA framework document), which for GM plants will
entail identifying GM products more likely to affect wildland
ecosystems, assessing biological processes and mechanisms by
which
such products could directly affect wildland ecosystems, and to
the extent possible, will also assess cascading impacts downward
through the biosocial system.

Key issues/problems addressed: Since their initial release just over 10 years ago, use of GM crops, developed
using recombinant DNA methods, has increased dramatically for
major commodity
crops such as soy beans, cotton, canola, and corn. Various concerns
have been raised
involving issues of human safety, ecosystem functions, and economic
or political
impacts. Several other GM crops have been commercialized (e.g.,
papaya, squash,
alfalfa, but see Charles 2007), and a much larger number of
GM products are
in various stages of development, evaluation, and testing,
including a number of grasses (Wipff 2002) and trees.

Genetically modified crops have been readily adopted by growers in many countries.
Nevertheless,
some consumers remain skeptical of GM technologies, choosing
instead to purchase
organic products, which in the United States preclude GM products.
To meet such market
demands, growers have developed various approaches to separate
GM and non-GM
products, including geographic isolation and buffer zones. Experience
with such
practices, however, have consistently demonstrated that agricultural
production
is inherently "leaky," leading to inadvertent release of GM plants
or transgenes (e.g., through pollen or seeds). Some degree of
intermixing of
GM and non-GM products, variously referred to as contamination
or adventitious
presence, is essentially inevitable. Depending on the extent
of intermixing,
product specifications, and market tolerances, economic consequences
may include
product pricing (e.g. price premiums for organic products) or
buyers may choose
to reduce or cancel orders. Another possible consequence of such
releases is
longer term ecological impacts by establishment of plants (as
feral escapes),
or by movement of transgenes into weedy or native relatives by
gene flow and
interbreeding.

To date, opportunities for long-term establishment of transgenes outside of
agroecosystems has been relatively limited, at least in in the
United States and Canada.
Most GM crops (e.g., corn, soybeans) do not persist outside of
cultivation, and
gene flow is inhibited because GM crops have few relatives here.
Nevertheless,
as the diversity of GM crops increases, so will the potential
for establishment
of transgenes outside of the agroecosystems for which they were
developed. Given
life histories, mating systems, and abundance of wild or feral
relatives, this
potential is especially great for grasses, certain trees (e.g.,
poplar), and
perhaps composites. The escape of creeping bentgrass into the Crooked River National Grassland
is a poignant example.

Anticipating continued introductions and greater diversity of GM plants, we
assume that the potential for inadvertent release of transgenes into wildland
ecosystems will likewise increase. Wildland managers need to better understand
how current policies and management practices could be affected by such releases.
To what extent are wildland managers and planners anticipating the likelihood
and consequence of such releases?

Status: Initiated June 2007

Deliverables: The RTA will emphasize species groups such as grasses, composites, and forest
trees. These groups have distinct life history traits, are ecologically significant
in wildland ecosystems, and are included within groups of plants for which GM
products are being developed and tested. In compiling our assessments we will:

Review the literature for agricultural
ecosystems, including risk assessment.

Assess the existing literature to determine its adequacy for extrapolating
from agroecosystems to wildland ecosystems.

Evaluate the potential for direct and indirect transgene impacts on various
ecosystem functions. In addition to primary impacts, as
appropriate, a
cascading impacts approach will be used to determine secondary
and tertiary
impacts, following the model of Andow and Zwahlen (2006), which
in turn draws
heavily on expertise in ecosystem processes (Snow et al. 2005).

Identify ecosystem services that could be affected by such releases. This
will be done by a combination of site visits and conference
calls with USFS
managers and planners, as deemed appropriate after consulting
with USFS personnel.

Attend at least two national meetings, representing WWETAC's efforts to
better understand and quantify potential threats from GM plants
on wildland
ecosystems.

Provide guidance to help quantify the potential magnitude of such impacts. In
doing this, we will collaborate with WWETAC to identify key
USFS managers
and stakeholders, seeking their input to identify products
and services most
likely to be affected by transgene escapes. We expect two broad
classes of
impacts: biological and socioeconomic. To some degree, primary
and secondary
biological impacts can be estimated by quantifying the likelihood
and magnitude
of transgene escape (GM occurrence) and assessing potential
biological consequences
of that occurrence. Anticipating and describing socioeconomic
impacts will
be done to the extent possible, but is made more difficult
by the fact that
many of these concerns involve nonmarket values, which are
challenging to
quantify. For example, studies have shown that public perception of risk from
GM products is heavily influenced by the context which a question
is presented
to a respondent (Hallman et al. 2004).
We anticipate these activities to be iterative as we interact
with managers
and stakeholders: interactions will inform us as to which products
and services
are of concern, and we will inform stakeholders of biological
processes affecting
both occurrence and consequence of transgene escapes.