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Oppressive Weather to Continue in Tamil Nadu

The deep depression which has dumped very heavy rains in Gujarat will traverse the state and merrily proceed towards Madhya Pradesh. Western parts of Madhya Pradesh will experience widespread rains with some heavy falls. This Monsoon catalyzer will also script moderate to Heavy rains over parts of Rajasthan and Uttarakhand. There will be no respite for Tamil Nadu, except for some isolated showers.
Chennai will face Hot and humid conditions with a max temperature of 38-39C. Late Evening Thunderstorms are expected to bring relief to some parts of Chennai.

Coimbatore continues to be Tamil Nadu’s blessed city with light drizzles making way for a nice evening and will not cross 31C.

1,321 thoughts on “Oppressive Weather to Continue in Tamil Nadu”

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Keaweather has been adding value to the bloggers through technical discussions over the blog and various meetings / interactions.We have also met in informal settings like keasports to unwind and derive pleasure by being amongst friends.

We also share many common interests and passion.Nature is one of them.Photography is another example.We have numerous bloggers sharing their wonderful photos of Rains / Clouds / Lightening etc over the blog and I have personally enjoyed each and every one of them.

Photography is a Science combined with art.All of us are artistic in our own ways and if we are able to learn the science part,we can be amongst the best photographers.With this objective,we are organizing a small Photography workshop on 5th July between 10am and 11.30am at a location in Parrys.This will be a presentation led workshop and will offer an insight into what it takes to click the best- Aperture,Shutter speed,Composition,the 2/3 rule etc will be covered.

The pre-requisites are only 1 – you have a passion for photography.If you have a camera,pls bring it along.

This workshop will be anchored by our own Blogger Srivatsan Shankaran.In his own words”I hail from Chennai, India. I am an Engineer by education but a die hard Photographer by passion. I have been pursuing my passion for the past 6 year. It began with Sony DSC-S600 and used it for landscape, portrait, etc.After 3 years, i transitioned to Nikon Coolpix and used it for 6 months.

I learned a lot through a dedicated lifestyle for understanding the very nuances of photography. My primary objective of photography is bringing out a sense of union with Mother Nature, and a sense of singularity with people. Exploring and experiencing the new places to capture people’s life style, culture and tradition in the sincere way bring immense happiness to me. Over the years,ventured into commercial photography.Since i always believe in shooting in a natural way, it helps me to bring a kick start in candid shooting.

I am strongly believing myself to venture into commercial shooting since i am so passionate about it

” The art of producing extraordinary image depends on the how deeply you are passionate about it.”

This weekly precipitation anomaly for the week ending 23rd June,2015 shows the power packed performance of Monsoon over some of the core regions in peninsular India. Thanks to twin systems on either side waters of India , that pushed up the scale of rains to max. anomaly …South and C.Kerala along with S.TN have been pushed down to negative values ….

To those all who doubt the Parsons Valley Rainfall (1700 mm in 5 days) as it is never reported in News like Avalanche (1100 mm in 5 days) . Here it is

The Municipal officials say that their workers along with those from the Tangedco were working in the Parsn Valley head works to restore power supply to pump water to the town. In the last two days, 380 to 390 mm
rains were recorded in the area pushing up the water level

The latest analysis of the Heat/Monsoon Trough from IMD has identified the strengthening and vertical extension of this Heat trough into lower tropospheric levels from 15th June. The following images show the rapid spread and development of this Troughing across North India on a larger spatial scale. The MSLP data for the week shows the strengthening and spread across the region , contributing to the monthly mean as well…..

The rainfall thus far has been better than expected, belaying predictions of below average rainfall. While some international weather forecasting agencies have predicted further strengthening of the dreaded El Nino factor — raising fears that monsoon will be affected —Palawat says that Indian Ocean Dipole will help negate the effect.

“The IOD which is currently neutral is expected to turn positive and balance the negative effects of El Nino,” he says.
Several factors are adding the monsoons progress but forecasters also say that a break-monsoon period is likely in the first week of July (between July 3 and 6) and another one later in the month (between July 23 and 26).

The Bureau’s new northern rainfall onset outlook provides guidance on rainfall timing within the first months of the Australian northern wet season.

The northern rainfall onset occurs when enough rain has fallen to stimulate plant growth after the dry season. This is defined as the date after 1 September when a location has received a total rainfall accumulation of at least 50 mm. The outlook is the percentage likelihood of the rainfall onset beginning earlier than normal.

The outlook will be updated monthly from June to August.

Low chance of early rainfall onset for much of northern Australia

– Areas with a less than 40% chance of an early rainfall onset include northwestern Western Australia, the Top End of the Northern Territory, Cape York Peninsula and parts of inland Queensland.

– With El Niño conditions in the tropical Pacific, an earlier than normal onset is less likely.

I think Elnino would not be the only reason to affect any climate especially rainfall pattern. May be it might give some weightage to change the climate to some extend. It may be compensated by other factors.

The Siruvani dam received 222 mm rainfall in the 24 hours ending at 7am on Wednesday. That is the highest rainfall recorded at the dam in the recent years. Water level at the dam was 25 feet as against the total height of 50 feet. In other words, water level stood at 871.65 metres (from sea level) as against the total height of 878.50 metres.
The Rainfall (222 mm) on Tuesday has broken the earlier record of 190 mm rain fall,” Sugumar, Executive engineer of Siruvani division of the TWAD board told Express.http://www.newindianexpress.com/states/tamil_nadu/Siruvani-Gets-Highest-Rainfall-of-222-mm/2015/06/25/article2884968.ece

what is the speed of gulf stream? The Gulf Stream has an average speed of four miles per hour (6.4 kilometers per hour). It means 153.4 KM/day. 13806 KM/90 days (almost equal distance between India & USA).

Note:
1. The above speed is absolute speed. So relative speed still more rapid.
2. If we take the speed of heat transfer (if we take conduction between neighboring water particles) will be still speeder to relative speed.
3. So no need to have any doubts regarding heat-transfer originating from Equatorial ocean’s Kelvin wave (EKW) to the polar region and thus setting the global-dynamics in matter of months/if not days (not years as everyone thinking).

Parsons valley gets 1700 mm rainfall in 5 days. Perunchani dam overflows, Siruvani dam gets second 200 mm rainfall.
=============================================
The offshore trough at mean sea level now runs from south Gujarat coast to north Kerala coast. More good news Siruvani Dam records 2nd 200 mm rainfall in last three days.Perunchani dam in Kankumari inflow increased to 1,823 cusecs and the level stood at 75.75 feet against its total height of 77 feeta and a quantum of 300 cusecs was released through sluice gates and excess water of 2,000 cusecs into Kuzhithurai Tamirabharani river.

The water level in Jhelum and its tributaries rose sharply following heavy rainfall since Wednesday. The water level in Jhelum crossed the danger mark at Sangam in south Kashmir early on Thursday morning as most parts of the Valley were lashed by incessant rains since Wednesday.

A flood alert was sounded late on Wednesday night for Anantnag and Pulwama districts with the MeT department predicting more rains over the next 48 hours in the region. The water level at Sangam was 25.30 feet at 3 am, 2.30 feet above the danger mark, a police official said.

The river was flowing at 17.10 feet at Ram Munshibagh here, closing in on the danger mark of 19 feet, the official said. The water level in Jhelum and its tributaries rose sharply following heavy rainfall since Wednesday. Divisional administration is scheduled to review the situation at an early morning meeting, Divisional Commissioner Kashmir Asgar Samoon said. He said some low lying areas in south Kashmir have been inundated. People living in as around flood prone areas in the two districts have been advised to shift to safer areas.

Two Doppler radars will start functioning on the cyclone-prone Odisha coast at Gopalpur and Paradeep by the end of July to provide more accurate weather predictions. Till now, no Doppler radars were available for weather prediction in Odisha, and it was being done through traditional analogue radars.

Speaking to The Hindu , director of Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) S.C. Sahu said Doppler radars would help in prediction of cyclonic storms, excessive rainfall, thunderstorms, and hailstorms, earlier than the traditional radars used till recently, with more accuracy.

Apart from Gopalpur and Paradeep, the IMD is also installing two more Doppler radar stations at Balasore and Sambalpur. “Buildings for these two radar stations is almost ready,” said Mr Sahu. They will be functional in the second phase.

Earlier analogue radars of the IMD were only functioning at Bhubaneswar and Paradeep. Mr. Sahu said Doppler radar would pinpoint the exact location where a cyclone will hit, while the traditional analogue radars used for weather forecast roughly indicate the possible places where the cyclone may hit.

According to him, Doppler radars would be a boon for cyclone-prone Odisha as it would result in early prediction of drastic weather changes for timely evacuation of people to be affected.

Mr. Sahu also pointed out that Doppler radars will also forecast hailstorm, thunder storm and volume of rainfall at a particular place.

It may be noted that it is always felt that the early prediction of the super-cyclone that hit Odisha coast in 1999 could have saved many lives.

Doppler radar would pinpoint the exact location where a cyclone will hit, while the traditional analogue radars roughly indicate the possible places

Staggering !!! , 40 million data observations and 200 trillion calculations per second, Surely super computers can only compute it ……Explains the need of differential and integral equations to produce outputs in 6 hours ….Algebraic equations can never do it ,,,,Agree …??

For the second day on Wednesday, the water level in the Siruvani Reservoir rose sharply to stand at 27.06 feet. The full reservoir level is 49.50 feet. According to sources in the Tamil Nadu Water Supply and Drainage Board and the Coimbatore Corporation, from the Tuesday morning’s level of 17.88 feet, the level rose to 27.06 feet, an increase of 9.18 feet. Tuesday morning’s water level was an increase of 8.58 ft.

The Wednesday’s increase was the result of good rain in catchment areas.

its sure. no doubt in that.
all models (utilizing super computers/ but lacking artificial intelligence inputs) are going to fail again in SWM-2015 predictions.
SWM-rainfall predictions not like predicting a cyclone 😦

According to me statistics can be fine tuned as per our needs. Though some parts report 15 – 16% excess, other parts are there facing severe shortfall. Looking at the picture area-wise would be much better for India..

to be more precise, both of them failed to predict this much excess rainfall this month. of course people will argue monsoon rains/ coverage not to the entire country, most parts missed like that, but isn’t the same things we are witnessing every year, more rainfall in some areas, less or poor rainfall in some areas irrespective of Elnino or other parameters, even at the end of monsoon period

when the prediction is made, it is made on the long time average, say whether it is 102% or 93%, for the overall country, therefore we have to look in that perspective only to access the success or other thing.

yes agreed.. imd gave their june forecast in april wich expected negative iod to prevail but the reality differed very highly. normally kerala and adj west coast score huge figures during the onset and subsequent weeks.tis year they missed it when the onset vortex developed into a cyclone.. unfortunately imd couldnt foresee tis system and issue forecast based on tis .. and coming to the last point .indian swm is an uneven monsoon .. rainfall spread out unevenly and so expecting each and every districts of indian states to get normal rainfall is something very rare and even impossible

but sir for the population of their country, and area, and with their developed country tag,they can do wonders, but in our India look out the population. and other things, still we are progressing, but agree we are not only miles but kilometers away.

unfortunately India missed the opportunity at the time of independence. Our leaders lacked the vision (whatever they implemented is not 100% accurate). By the time India declared complete independence on Jan 26th, 1950; India could have had plans on “centralized education, roads and health (these 3 enough)” to make our country very competitive to USA/Europe. We missed the golden opportunity in 1950 itself. Now its not possible to change our system 😦

Flash….alert…Expecting SWM-2015 cumulative rainfall may exceed 1997’s average of 102%. I will come to final opinion for this excess SWM-rainfall compared to 1997’s after watching June’s real-time QBO value, which can be known by July 1st week.

Note:
1. ONI index going to increase further.
2. Already QBO is in increasing trend.
3. According to SWM-QBOONI rule, under favorable rule SWM-dynamics including all parameters will orient to give normal-excess rainfall.
4. Please note in kea-voting I had been more cautious to estimate SWM-rainfall be around 93%, which is IMD’s 1st prediction.

its quite normal during tis part of year.. normally we get sea breeze afternoon varying from 1pm to 5pm during may to sep..tis sea breeze brings the comfort by lowering the temp drastically and when monsoon strengthens, associated westerly winds wont allow the sea breeze to penetrate easily.. tis makes june and fist half of july more discomfort

looks mid-high level cirro-cumulus combined with alto-startus. for this reason drizzles occurred. TS may not be immediate as I could not see any fast moving cumulus in the sky. If TS happens it will be at night. cumulus must develop at least by 1:00-2:00 PM to get evening TS. Lets see.

Raghav. Except for that one monster spell on 26th July n 27th early morning, 2005 to some extent was subdued. If my memory serves me right Bombay got around 1850 mm that year. Almost 50% came on that day. .I’m talking about Santa cruz here.

Looks like there will be continuous formation of monsoon depressions in North bay with break periods…
If the series of pulses in south china sea can penetrate into BOB then july is also going to end with excess rains irrespective of weakened mjo and strong elnino..

Correct me if I am wrong…..
I have been observing the cherrapunji rain decreasing a lot when there is an UAC in north bay or over west bengal.(different in case of depressions and cyclones)
As cherra is located 1447 m above sea level , I am thinking that the moisure uplift is not so great during UAC

remember system forms when the axis shifts south of the normal position so they dont get enough rainfall when system form ..instead they get rainfall when monsoon axis moves north .. cherra gets most of the rainfall thru orographical ,independant of monsoon system

“The pulse that helped activate the monsoon will move into the western Pacific Ocean, leading to a quieter phase of the monsoon by this weekend,” stated AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Jason Nicholls. “This quiet phase will carry into at least the middle of July as the effects from El Niño take hold.”

“July will end up being below normal across India, except along the southwestern and northeastern coasts,” Nicholls added.

good, that caution should be always in mind, so far we said X or Y or Z wrong, now people will start to judge us with our success rate also, we should be very careful in this, but i believe we will do better than others in the field

i bet no weather agencies in the world are 100%, hence the success rate is important. if u take 80’s or 90’s hindu paper or even now if you take IMD website, their forecast from June to September everyday, rain or thundershowers possible towards evening or night. you can see this on a daily basis, but only few days it becomes true in chennai, hence we need to improve the percentage, we cannot be 100% and even people will not expect the same.

Then i went to that site saw that product it was in stock. It was available.

How they are telling. Your order has confirmed and in second line they given Your order product not available. Hence we are cancelling your order..
It is available in site. Then y they have given confusion message. What’s wrong.

now i’m getting… i think he is mixing cricket and weather, he needs desperate change either in the score or in the temperature.
kea: “out of desperation. Nothing happening in Chennai weather. Atleast let us cross 40”

this is not for flattering, so far I have seen lot of experts name in News papers so far, but for the 1st time i saw Kea name in a paper, he really have generous heart, promoting his friends, and happy to stand in behind, Kudos to you Kea

Green clouds are likely when thunderstorm with heavy rain are strongly illuminated from behind by reddish sunlight, such as at sunset. The high water content of the cloud absorbs red light, resulting in a green colouration.The colour will be blue-green for larger rain drops, and yellow-green for smaller.
This explanation does not require hail in the cloud. However it does require a very high water content which may only occur in thunderstorms which are likely to also produce hail. Thus in SE Queensland it may be that storms that produce hail also appear to have green clouds.

West Bengal, Odisha, North AP and then Chattisgarh leading to water level rise in Godavari
South AP and TN going to enjoy cool climate with scattered rains..
Need to see whether the convections dips further south.