Understanding the separatist threat

29 February 2016

As the risk of Brexit dominates the headlines, it is easy to forget that
across the EU an array of member states are battling to contain
independence movements within their own borders. This week Policy
Network takes stock of the situations in a variety of countries and
considers the factors currently influencing the success of separatist
groups.

Roberto Robles
argues that Spain faces the most active separatist challenge in Europe
in Catalonia, where many previously moderate nationalists have been
converted to the cause of separatism. With nearly half of voters
actively wishing to break away, Robles envisages an “increased
disconnect – both social and political between Catalonia and the rest of
Spain”.

Conversely, the threat has subsided in the Basque Country, the region historically plagued by separatist terror group Eta. Koldo Casla identifies “institutional, historical and strategic” factors at play, arguing that these are all linked to the economic crisis.

Wim Vermeersch
identifies a paradox whereby an independent Flemish state appears
increasingly unlikely, despite the strong performance of nationalists
who have dominated in recent elections. He argues this is the result of
the complexity of Belgium’s federal state.

In Italy, Francesco Rocchetti
finds that Matteo Renzi’s electoral reforms look set to transform the
impact of localised groups on the national political scene. Taking
inspiration from the Spanish political system, “the majority prize will
only be given to parties and not to coalitions, to the detriment of
regional parties”.

Finally, Teona Surmava
considers whether the solidity of the EU itself is threatened by
secession plans within individual member states. There is a complex
interaction here, with many groups hoping to achieve national
independence but desiring to remain within the EU.