Larger iPhone Expected to Spark Massive Upgrade Cycle [Chart]

The release of a new iPhone with a larger display would encourage a significant number of users to upgrade in 2014, according to analyst Brian Marshall of ISI Group.

In an investor note relayed by MacRumors, Marshall suggests Apple will release a 4.7-inch and a 5.5-inch smartphone, sparking a massive upgrade cycle.

ISI says that the upgrade rate (percentage of iPhone owners upgrading per quarter) is currently at 9%. That's less than the 10 to 11% upgrade seen in 2011-2012. This is likely because the iPhone 5s isn't seen as a must have upgrade for iPhone 5 owners.

Peak quarters have had upgrade rates of about 12-14% and ISI expects that a similar rate will been seen if Apple releases a larger device in the second half of 2014. They also note that a larger iPhone could lure in customers who switched to Android for the bigger screen sizes.

"Large-screen envy" is prevalent among the iPhone installed base and we believe a ~5” form-factor iPhone would spark a massive upgrade cycle as well as many "Android switchers" returning back to the iPhone (we refer to this as the “mother lode” of all Apple upgrade cycles).

Fine - build a massive 5" screen that's cheap & easily available for the unwashed masses who buy Android. For those with dough, give us modest current sizing and premium features, battery life and services.

Increasing the screen size doesn't make any sense. Why increase screen size? Other people should have brought/bought an ipad rather than an iphone instead. Comparing iphone5s vs SG5 the latter didn't really innovate something at all. They just added existing innovations (finger print scanner from 5s, water/shockproof idea from sony but i dont know if it did worked out at all, et al) increases their screen size a bit and whoala, called it SG5. Expect the next SG6 will follow what apple will be innovating in iphone6 like sapphire glass display and others (secret). Stick to the plan, Apple should lead innovation.

It's how fans want a little bit bigger, they want it "phablet" style and not tablet sized, they want it less than 5" and they have been asking and begging for apple and they don't have a choice but to do it.

I've heard and read lots of these kinds of comments two yrs ago or even a year ago before they released fingerprint scanners and waterproof devices and look what we have now, people just need to think of something different then work on it, not work on something thats already been developed. That whats separates apple from other devices. Well also sony for that kind of matter.