SimCraft Accurate for fire?

Hello all, I have been working on making the switch to Fire recently, I have been replacing my gems and messing around with my gear and I've been siming. It appears that that SimCraft sims me at about 20k DPS less than when I was frost. In my Frost spec I was getting an estimate of about 138k but in fire I get an estimate of 119k or around there.
I am wondering if this is to be expected, or have I made the switch too early, should I wait till I have more Crit Heavy gear. Is this an accurate portrait of what my DPS might be>
Has anyone else had this issue and did they find that going for fire at my level might be a DPS loss.

If you want to look me up and sim me yourself I am Hoofs @ sargeras us.battle.net/wow/en/character/sargeras/Hoofs/advanced
I sim with only my own buffs.

Anyway I am just wondering if anyone else has any input on this quandary for me. Thanks for any and all input.

You don't have a lot of crit but at least you have the 4P so you should be fine.

You have too much haste, seems the way to go is 5076 (I think, maybe go 5100 to be sure) haste and dump the rest into mastery. You don't have the meta but in my experience it doesnt proc that much at all in fire spec so thats not a big problem.

If you don't mind me asking, why do you want to go fire ? You should just go with whatever you like the most. If you're not underperforming in frost you should play what you enjoy.
I'm still 520 ilvl (528 now cause of the cloak), and I had no problem beeing first for almost every boss, and by a solid margin, despite being with good players and some of them having 6/7+ ilvl more than me.

I had no problem beeing first for almost every boss, and by a solid margin, despite being with good players and some of them having 6/7+ ilvl more than me.

That is a contradiction in itself.
but anyways simcraft for fire is very inaccurate. frost should be better at low crit but who cares. all mage specs are fine play what you like to play. at your ilvl they are all very close. they perform better on different fights.

That is a contradiction in itself.
but anyways simcraft for fire is very inaccurate. frost should be better at low crit but who cares. all mage specs are fine play what you like to play. at your ilvl they are all very close. they perform better on different fights.

Well, logs are here to prove my point .

But yeah, play what you like, unless you're super hardcore there should no problem with it.

Simcraft apprently has a problem with siming RNG, so yeah dont trust the simcraft numbers. Apparently, there are some other deeper problems with fire and simcraft so only use to obtain stat weights....at best.

Simcraft apprently has a problem with siming RNG, so yeah dont trust the simcraft numbers. Apparently, there are some other deeper problems with fire and simcraft so only use to obtain stat weights....at best.

SimulationCraft has absolutely no problem at all simming "RNG" - really this is deviation from the mean. The problem is that you probably don't know how to interpret the results. When you run 10000 or more iterations of a simulation, the randomness and error is smoothed by the sheer size of the simulation, and thus it gives you a good approximation of your average dps, however that number gives you no indication of what the deviation is.

If you want to have an idea about the RNG associated with a given set of gear and class take a look at the distribution of calculations in the graph after it's done. It'll show you a maximum dps, a minimum dps, and the distribution of all values inbetween. The larger the standard deviation (the larger the gaps between the numbers), the more susceptible to RNG you can expect the simulated conditions to be.

The reason SimulationCraft isn't great for fire is that fire by nature is greatly affected by RNG and thus has higher highs and lower lows, so the odds that you land on the number it gives you at the end (the average) are lower. With lower gear levels your dps may be distributed less evenly because of combustion's importance (speculation), but also because the lows are low enough that they are much more likely to have a substantial impact on turnout - you're more likely to wipe (and have it be your fault) as fire if you are pushing an enrage timer since the floor for fire is comparably lower than, say, frost. As you said, the stat weights are the real strength, but you can still get useful information from the dps distribution.

Simcraft apprently has a problem with siming RNG, so yeah dont trust the simcraft numbers. Apparently, there are some other deeper problems with fire and simcraft so only use to obtain stat weights....at best.

I wouldn't even do that. Crit>haste(to a breakpoint you can meet)>mastery for stats. You can find the breakpoints all over the place.

I'm still 520 ilvl (528 now cause of the cloak), and I had no problem beeing first for almost every boss, and by a solid margin, despite being with good players and some of them having 6/7+ ilvl more than me.

Then they are bad players (or at least much worst than you).

For twohoofs I would say to wait until you get more gear, you need much more crit than you can get with your current gear.

Jesus you would only be 24% with shield and 29% for your pyro crit? Switching to fire now is something out of the question. Even swapping to pure crit gems in your current gear would not make up for what you need. I'd say 35% self buffed minimum and 40% ideal if not more.

I was just about to post the same thing. You guys just killed lei shen normal so you cant really say "you play with good players"

We raid 2 times a week. For a total of 5 hours/week. We killed Lei Shen 2 or 3 weeks ago, despite having big roster changes, we're very casual, we don't really care about killing the bosses first /§§! ^^

Believe me, if we raided 3, 4, or 5 times a week like most heroic guild, we would be there too.

Who are you to judge who is good and who isn't, you don't who the people I play with, and we don't know you ^^. Most of heroics guild are there because they raid a lot, not because they're good, been there, done that .

I think the most common problem I see...is player just not doing the things that are a part of the simcraft logic. If your doing things closer to the ideal than your teammates...your going to look better. Sometimes you might look a LOT better.

I never got to the numbers that I got in SimCraft for Fire. I was always 20k lower then SimCraft calculated for me. Though I think I was doing pretty decent. Anyway I switched back to Frost, because I like the control you have with Frost