BMI View: While significant unrest carries on in Kiev, as yet it is difficult to attribute the effects such movements will have on economic growth, consumer expenditure and activity within the food and drink sector. At the time of writing, former President Yanukovych has been forced from government. A government in which Yanukovych has any form of power is likely to be rejected by the population, and we outline four of the frontrunners for the presidency as Tymoshenko, Yatsenyuk, Klitschko and Tyahnybok. In the short term, we believe that economic and private consumption growth will be hit by the events in Kiev, on top of the regional underperformance we forecast prior to recent events. Our substantially belowconsensus expectation for economic activity to contract by 1.4% in 2013 looks increasingly likely to play out, with real GDP shrinking by an average of 1.3% y-o-y across the first three quarters of the year, against consensus expectations of 0.1%.