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I can't really say that I am that surprised at the results. Happy with Kuroneko, Saber, Rin, Haruhi and Mio making regular season and to some degree, Yurippe.

The Stella arenas for next round are pretty much predictable. It looks like Nova will probably have 3 newbies winning(2 of them Haganai girls) and 3 returning girls winning. Kirino is obviously going to win her group(Nova 8), but I wonder who'll get 2nd: Sora or Suburu? That could have implications for Phase 2. I can see the winners of the other Nova groups, but it will be interesting to see how close first and second will be in some of those.

It's because of how the characters are placed after nominations and how characters move between rounds. 12th, 13th, 36th, 37th, etc. place are the worst places to be. Erio would actually get easier groups if she got fewer nominations. For example Irisviel was 22nd and she got 3 much easier groups as opposed to the three impossible groups Erio got. Also since Erio kept placing second, she went from Kanade to Kuroneko to Eucliwood's group. If she came in 7th in Kanade's group, she would have been moved to Victorique's group. After that if she came in 6th she would go to Homura's group. Due to not doing badly, she gets tougher groups.

With that said, I don't think Erio was strong enough to win any of the group. She might have had a slight chance at Homura, I guess.

Oh, I haven't been paying attention to the rules. I thought the final round was gonna be based on pure R1 and R2 performance. Then again I guess that's part of the charm, letting the luck of nomination factor in too. I mean, she placed lower than Madoka in noms, yet looks stronger now.

Oh, I haven't been paying attention to the rules. I thought the final round was gonna be based on pure R1 and R2 performance. Then again I guess that's part of the charm, letting the luck of nomination factor in too. I mean, she placed lower than Madoka in noms, yet looks stronger now.

Well, even so, I want my picks to do a best as possible regardless!
It may be "more beneficial if...", but for me, I am not even gonna weigh the possibility of poor outcomes until they come to pass... Hahahaha!

Well, even so, I want my picks to do a best as possible regardless!
It may be "more beneficial if...", but for me, I am not even gonna weigh the possibility of poor outcomes until they come to pass... Hahahaha!

It's because of how the characters are placed after nominations and how characters move between rounds. 12th, 13th, 36th, 37th, etc. place are the worst places to be. Erio would actually get easier groups if she got fewer nominations. For example Irisviel was 22nd and she got 3 much easier groups as opposed to the three impossible groups Erio got. Also since Erio kept placing second, she went from Kanade to Kuroneko to Eucliwood's group. If she came in 7th in Kanade's group, she would have been moved to Victorique's group. After that if she came in 6th she would go to Homura's group. Due to not doing badly, she gets tougher groups.

With that said, I don't think Erio was strong enough to win any of the group. She might have had a slight chance at Homura, I guess.

You are looking only at the upper rankings. Think also about who might be placed at the lower rankings, and also how it might affect your seeding for Phase II. Had Erio placed 3rd even once, she would now have much tougher opponent competing with her for the 2nd place: She might have trouble even making 2nd place now. Also, had Erio placed 3rd even once, she would likely be placed in tougher group for phase II. Phase I structure, by itself, has many problem. It is only when you consider how it leads to the seeding round and then to the Phase II, that it makes better sense.

A structure that will let someone finishing 2nd in a strong group to move quicker to much weaker group, instead of adjacent group, has been made by I, and was verified by random simulations. That structure has not been adopted since it uses algorithm found in Numerical Analysis, but never been used in this type of tournament. Another reason for that structure not being adopted was that I was able to fix one of big concerns by other staff member just 3 days ago, obviously too late for this year's prelim. So, if Erio-like cases bother people a lot, we do have a remedy for that, but the new question will be, will people trust us Math/Stat geeks enough to bear through 2nd to 4th round of initial seeding phase which don't seem to make much sense at a glance, unless you keep track of cumulative votes received by each character ?

I never thought that I would give Homura even a single vote during this phase, but here you go. It's what happens when she's clumped with two girls I don't care about and four others that I don't know. Gave Ayase a vote sheerly because she's voiced by Hanazawa. Must be a good character if that's the case.