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Satellite falling to Earth

(CNN) -- A European satellite that ran out of fuel will start falling in the next few days, and fragments of the disintegrating 2,000-pound spacecraft are expected to strike the Earth's surface.
Nobody knows where or when the fragments will hit, but the European Space Agency has said the parts are likely to fall into the ocean or unpopulated areas. Potential spots will be narrowed down closer to re-entry, ESA said on its website.
Re-entry probably will occur Sunday or Monday, Rune Floberghagen, mission manager for the Gravity Field and Steady-State Ocean Explorer, better known as GOCE, told the New York Times.
GOCE was launched in 2009 to map variations in the Earth's gravity in 3D, provide ocean circulation patterns and make other measurements.
ESA's website said the satellite "became the first seismometer in orbit" in March 2011 when it detected sound waves from the earthquake that struck Japan.
GOCE was expected to fall much earlier but fuel consumption was less than expected. In August, the satellite's altitude was lowered to about 139 miles, lowest of any research satellites, to improve the accuracy of the information being gathered, ESA's website said.
GOCE ran out of fuel October 21. On November 4, ESA's website said the satellite was orbiting the Earth at 119 miles and the rate of descent would increase significantly in coming days.

The thing about common sense is, it is not so common any more

Sic Semper Tyrannis

It is difficult to stand idly by and watch the vacuum of ignorance being filled with lies. ~Raven

one-tonne satellite operated by the European Space Agency (ESA) has run out of fuel and will fall back to Earth in an unknown location sometime in the next few days.

The Gravity Field and Steady-State Ocean Circulation Explorer, or GOCE, has been mapping Earth’s gravitational field for just over four years, but has been losing altitude by 2.5 miles a day over the past month.

It’s expected that between 25 and 45 fragments of the spacecraft will survive the descent through the atmosphere in an anticipated event known as an ‘uncontrolled entry’.

Parts of the satellite as heavy as 90kg could make it all the way to the Earth’s surface, forming part of the 100 tonnes of material that is estimated to fall from space each year.

Despite the seemingly dangerous nature of this event, the scientists involved with the project have assured the public that the chances of the debris actually hitting anyone are very small. The impact of GOCE’s re-entry (pronounce GO-chay) will affect an area approximately 13 to 18 metres squared.

“If you compare that to the surface of the planet, it’s a very small number,” the flight’s mission manager, Rune Floberghagen, told the New York Times.

Floberghagen added that “It’s rather hard to predict where the spacecraft will re-enter and impact,” but suggested that current estimates favour “a re-entry on Sunday, with a possibility for it slipping into early Monday.”

As of Wednesday GOCE was reportedly 113 miles up, orbiting Earth directly over the poles every 88 minutes. Due to the rotation of the planet this means that the satellite’s debris could fall anywhere on the planet.

Previous ‘uncontrolled entries’ have included a decommissioned Nasa satellite that fell into the Pacific two years ago and malfunctioning Mars probe, launched by Russia, that also hit the Pacific. There have been no known instances of space debris injuring people to date.

What was GOCE’s mission?

GOCE was a unique craft, specially designed to operate in a low, Earth-hugging orbit that brought it closer to the planet that any other research satellite to date.

A sleek design and stabilising fins reduced its drag, whilst an ion propulsion system allowed it to maintain an altitude of 260km, skimming along through the threadbare patches of air that persist that high up.

These ion thrusters produce very little power compared to chemical rockets but are incredibly precise and can be maintained over long periods of time.

A gradiometer on-board GOCE allowed it to map the planet’s gravity with “unrivalled precision”, with the data it collected offering scientists new insights that spanned topics from ocean currents to the first global map of the boundaries between the Earth’s crust and mantle.

“The outcome is fantastic,” said Volker Liebig, ESA’s Director of Earth Observation Programmes. “We have obtained the most accurate gravity data ever available to scientists. This alone proves that GOCE was worth the effort – and new scientific results are emerging constantly.”

An international team is currently monitoring the craft’s descent from its still-operational sensors.

The thing about common sense is, it is not so common any more

Sic Semper Tyrannis

It is difficult to stand idly by and watch the vacuum of ignorance being filled with lies. ~Raven

I watched a vid on this yesterday and one of the passes takes this thing right over my AO. I will have to keep an eye out.

In every stage of these Oppressions We have Petitioned for Redress in the most humble terms: Our repeated Petitions have been answered only by repeated injury. A Prince whose character is thus marked by every act which may define a Tyrant, is unfit to be the ruler of a free people. Source – The Declaration of Independence

I find this a interesting bit of distraction. Something launched in 09 only had fuel for four years, hummmmm and didn't they already have a plan 4yrs ago to blow stuff before it could reach us? I'm sure they have the power to shut these things down,interesting timing here, it lands just before the grid exercise. Maybe one of the pieces hits a plant and the exercise goes real. Maybe this is a distraction from something else. Looky here we will throw the theorist a bone a falling satalite that looks like a shuttle just like in the killshot prediction that should keep them busy while we do what we want.

The Gravity field and steady-state Ocean Circulation Explorer (GOCE) satellite has been orbiting Earth in super-low orbits since 2009, mapping out variations in Earth’s gravity in extreme detail. But its fuel ran out in mid-October and the satellite began its slow descent towards Earth, being brought lower and lower by the effects of the atmosphere. Engineers predict it will re-enter completely and fall back to Earth sometime this weekend.

But no one can say for sure when or where the 1-ton satellite will fall.

With no remaining fuel to guide its re-entry there’s no way to nudge or steer its descent. And while most of GOCE is predicted to disintegrate in the atmosphere, several parts might reach Earth’s surface. Experts predict as much as 25% of the spacecraft will survive reentry, as many parts are made of advanced materials, such as carbon-carbon composites.

Today, engineers from the GOCE mission said that the spacecraft is predicted to enter into Earth’s atmosphere sometime during the night between Sunday and Monday, November 10-11, 2013. Break-up of the spacecraft will occur at an altitude of approximately 80 km. “At the moment, the exact time and location of where the fragments will land cannot be foreseen,” says ESA.

The GOCE spacecraft was designed to fly low and has spent most of its mission roughly 500 km below most other Earth-observing missions, at an altitude of 255 km (158 miles), but has recently been at the lowest altitude of any research satellite at 224 km (139 miles).

Its durable construction and sleek design allowed it to stay in space for longer than expected; it nearly tripled its planned lifetime.

With GOCE data, scientists created the first global high-resolution map of the boundary between Earth’s crust and mantle – called the Moho – and to detect sound waves from the massive earthquake that hit Japan on 11 March 2011, among other results.
Heiner Klinkrad, Head of ESA’s Space Debris Office at ESOC, Darmstadt, Germany said that when the spacecraft reaches altitudes below 100 km, then atmospheric density will drastically increase on the spacecraft. It will enter at about 25,000 km/hour, and aerodynamic pressure and heating will cause a break-up of the spacecraft at approximately 80km altitude, causing a large number of fragments.

“The risk to the population on ground will be minute,” said Klinkrad. “Statistically speaking, it is 250,000 times more probable to win the jackpot in the German Lotto than to get hit by a GOCE fragment. In 56 years of space flight, no man-made space objects that have re-entered into Earth’s atmosphere have ever caused injury to humans.”

An international campaign will be monitoring the descent, involving the Inter-Agency Space Debris Coordination Committee. The situation is being continuously watched by ESA’s Space Debris Office, which will issue re-entry predictions and risk assessments.

Went out this morning shortly after 4am with daughter and watched the sky. We saw at least 10 satellites and about a dozen meteors.

One satellite must have just caught the (below horizon) sunlight just right and flashed two times brightly in our direction. Some of the satellites move very quickly.... nearer earth. Those further out are slow movers.

There was no set pattern for their movement. Some went north-south. Some went southwest to northeast.

As we were watching the meteors, I thought about how risky it is to live in the space station. And... the survival of the satellites testifies to the broad expanse of sky. If there were ever catastrophic hits of satellites at the right angle, the shrapnel could cascade into a curtain of debris as other satellites are hit.

United Nations to Adopt Asteroid Defense Plan
Earth is not prepared for the threat of hazardous rocks from space, say astronauts who helped formulate the U.N. measures

By Clara Moskowitz

When a meteor exploded over Chelyabinsk, Russia in February, the world’s space agencies found out along with the rest of us, on Twitter and YouTube. That, says former astronaut Ed Lu, is unacceptable—and the United Nations agrees. Last week the General Assembly approved a set of measures that Lu and other astronauts have recommended to protect the planet from the dangers of rogue asteroids.

The U.N. plans to set up an “International Asteroid Warning Group” for member nations to share information about potentially hazardous space rocks. If astronomers detect an asteroid that poses a threat to Earth, the U.N.’s Committee on the Peaceful Uses of Outer Space will help coordinate a mission to launch a spacecraft to slam into the object and deflect it from its collision course.

Lu and other members of the Association of Space Explorers (ASE) recommended these steps to the U.N. as a first step to address at the long-neglected problem of errant space rocks. “No government in the world today has explicitly assigned the responsibility for planetary protection to any of its agencies,” ASE member Rusty Schweickart, who flew on the Apollo 9 mission in 1969, said Friday at the American Museum of Natural History. “NASA does not have an explicit responsibility to deflect an asteroid, nor does any other space agency.” The ASE advocates that each nation delegate responsibility for dealing with a potential asteroid impact to an internal agency—before the event is upon us.

The next step in defending Earth against dangerous asteroids is to find them, Lu said. “There are 100 times more asteroids out there than we have found. There are about 1 million asteroids large enough to destroy New York City or larger. Our challenge is to find these asteroids first before they find us.”

Early warning is important because it increases the chance of being able to deflect a threatening asteroid once it is found. If a spacecraft struck an asteroid 5 or 10 years before the rock was due to hit Earth, a slight orbital alternation should be enough to make it pass Earth by; if the asteroid wasn’t detected soon enough, evacuating the impact zone may be the only option available. “If we don’t find it until a year out, make yourself a nice cocktail and go out and watch,” Schweickart quipped.

The B612 Foundation, a non profit Lu founded to address the problem of asteroid impacts, is developing a privately funded infrared space telescope called Sentinel, which it hopes to launch in 2017. The telescope would begin a systematic search for hazardous near-Earth objects.

The ASE astronauts are also asking the United Nations to coordinate a practice asteroid deflection mission to test out the technologies for pushing a rock off course should the need arise. The meteor in Chelyabinsk, which injured 1,000 people but killed none, was an ideal warning shot across the bow, said American Museum of Natural History astronomer Neil deGrasse Tyson, who hosted Friday’s event—now, it’s time for Earth’s citizens to take action. Lu agreed: “Chelyabinsk was bad luck,” he said. “If we get hit again 20 years from now, that is not bad luck—that’s stupidity.”

I find this a interesting bit of distraction. Something launched in 09 only had fuel for four years, hummmmm and didn't they already have a plan 4yrs ago to blow stuff before it could reach us? I'm sure they have the power to shut these things down,interesting timing here, it lands just before the grid exercise. Maybe one of the pieces hits a plant and the exercise goes real. Maybe this is a distraction from something else. Looky here we will throw the theorist a bone a falling satalite that looks like a shuttle just like in the killshot prediction that should keep them busy while we do what we want.

Yeah and I saw this today:

I haven't checked to verify: You can see the notices better at the link.

The Daily Sheeple)

Next week on November 13th and 14th the Department of Homeland Security will be engaging in a widespread power outage drill involving scores of international government agencies and business in an effort to test the viability of a national response plan in the event of a cyber attack, electro-magnetic pulse attack or solar flare.

The Grid Ex II drill has left many concerned that it may coincide with an actual “false flag” attack, much like similar drills that were taking place on September 11th, as well as in Boston during the recent bombing.

Speculation abounds about the coming power grid drills, and a recent alert issued by the IRS.gov web site isn’t helping quell fears.

The following message has appeared on at least 50 pages of the IRS.gov web site within the last 48 hours, though the alert is not being displayed on most areas of the site:

Planned Outage: November 9 — November 12, 2013

This service will be unavailable beginning approximately 4:00 p.m. ET on Saturday, November 9, 2013 until approximately 7:00 a.m. ET on Tuesday, November 12, 2013, due to a power outage. We apologize for any inconvenience.

irs-poweroutage-message

irs-poweroutage

Message forums on the internet suggest that many believe this may have something to do with the Grid Ex II drills, though no information from the IRS has been forthcoming.

The new foundation is developing a Sentinel Space Telescope (SST), a privately built infrared device, which will allow the UN group to accurately locate threatening asteroids such as the one that struck Chelyabinsk, years before they pose a threat. It is hoped that the SST will be launched by 2017.

The SST and its ability to provide advance warning is crucial if it is to give government and space agencies enough time to effectively neutralise hazardous asteroids. Lu and his colleagues supported the plan to deploy at least one spacecraft, depending on the size of the threat, to smash into any incoming rocks -- stressing that the technology to do this already exists.

Whilst the SST is under construction, the Association of Space Explorers requested that the UN coordinate a practice asteroid deflection mission to ensure the technology works.

Methods of deflection that the group might consider include: a nuclear explosive device, kinetic impact, a gravity tractor, or even wrapping the asteroid in a sheet of reflective plastic such as aluminised clingfilm, which will act as a solar sail.

Massive Satellite 'Cluster' Launch Set for November 21:
A Dnepr launcher set to lift off from Dombarovsky, near Yasny, Russia, on November 21 will carry more than two dozen satellites from 13 countries. Individual satellite teams are now in Yasny preparing their payloads for launch. Several of the satellites will carry Amateur Radio payloads, marking this as the largest single deployment of ham radio satellites. Paving the way for this month's event was the August 22 Dnepr launch of the KOMPSAT-5 satellite from Korea -- the first Dnepr launch in 2 years. This month's launch had been postponed for more than a year to work the wrinkles out of the Dnepr program. The DubaiSat-2 http://space.skyrocket.de/doc_sdat/dubaisat-2.htm Earth-imaging satellite will be the principal payload of this cluster mission.

Some of the satellites headed into orbit will be contained within the Italian UniSat-5 http://amsat-uk.org/tag/unisat-5/ microsat package. UniSat-5 will include a pair of UHF transceivers operating 9k6 GMSK AX25 protocol. From "PocketQube" launchers, UniSat-5 will deploy several smaller satellites, and one of the smaller satellites will release yet another satellite, reminiscent of decorative Ukrainian eggs within eggs. UniSat-5 will deploy Eagle-1 (BeakerSat-1), Eagle-2 ($50Sat), QubeScout S1 http://space.skyrocket.de/doc_sdat/qubescout-s1.htm, estar-2 (CW and 1k2 AFSK UHF downlink), Wren http://space.skyrocket.de/doc_sdat/wren.htm, and PUCP-Sat-1 http://space.skyrocket.de/doc_sdat/pucp-sat-1.htm, which in turn will disgorge Pocket-PUCP, a tiny spacecraft built by students in Peru that will carry four temperature sensors and transmit the data using a 10 mW CW UHF transmitter using 30 kHz FSK.

Scheduled to be among the other Amateur Radio-payload carrying satellites is FUNcube-1 http://funcube.org.uk/, a 1U CubeSat that is a collaboration between AMSAT-UK and AMSAT-NL. It will carry an "educational beacon" (1200 baud BPK -- daytime operation) and a 20 kHz wide U/V inverting SSB/CW transponder running 300 mW PEP (nighttime operation). A project begun in 2009, FUNcube-1 will provide a signal directly to schools, with the "target audience" students at the primary and secondary levels.

FUNcube-1 is the middle 1U CubeSat of three sharing a 3U launch vehicle pod. The other two are ZACUBE-1 http://amsat-uk.org/2012/08/25/14099...d-of-november/ -- the first South African satellite -- and HiNCube http://www.hincube.com/ from Norway, which will identify and transmit housekeeping data in the 70 centimeter band in CCSDS http://www.ccsds.org/ protocol. ZACUBE-1, in addition to carrying VHF and UHF communication equipment, has a 20 meter beacon that will transmit on 14.099 MHz.

Another Amateur Radio satellite, Delfi-n3Xt http://www.lr.tudelft.nl/en/organisa...-project-page/, is a 3U CubeSat developed by the Technical University of Delft in the Netherlands. It will feature a 40 kHz wide U/V transponder that will be activated after other experiments are completed, as well as a high-speed S-band downlink.

United Nations to Adopt Asteroid Defense Plan
Earth is not prepared for the threat of hazardous rocks from space, say astronauts who helped formulate the U.N. measures

By Clara Moskowitz

[//End Quote Snip --- > see article quoted in Willowwind's original post for the text]

Willowwind, I think you give an excellent assessment of the "BIGGER PICTURE" for what might really be going on in conjunction with this news about the satellite.

Seriously, I feel bombarded by all the seemingly *crazy/weird* stuff that's going on & also all the breaking news reports such as:

-- The sudden news release this week about how there may be billions of "earth-like" planets in our Milky Way Galaxy = WOW!

-- The new report that just came out about there is a much higher risk of meteors striking our planet than had been previously thought...

~~~~

And then there's stuff like all the fireball & strange orbs, pulsating objects (go see the Earthchanges sub forum here up in the box at top of main page)

Also, saw thread that Fisher posted in past day or so -- it was about how there's been a FEMA drill for some kind of catastrophic impact along the eastern coast of USA ... (don't recall title so perhaps someone can link it here?) so wondering if this might have been in preparation for this falling satellite -- or God only knows what it might really be & the satellite is just the "cover story" for something else ???

Last thing is that our local media here in DFW area has been reporting about how there's a major FEMA, etc Emergency Preparedness type DRILL going on in this area this weekend & last into the week ,, I think it is supposed to "end" the day that that the Electric Grid-X operation (a national drill?) begins. In the local paper (Fort Worth Star Telegram) they called it Urban Shield North Central Texas 2013 and it is supposed to start on November 9th = today. This drill here is being coordinated through the North Central Texas Council of Governments and there will be several exercises involving mock-up situations around the area.

It seems really strange that this drill in DFW area will be {{eta: IS }} going on right before the Electrical Grid-X Drill begins = YIKES!?!?

So, it is likely even more things like this are going on & just don't know about them... Do feel it is important to consider all these factors >> like connecting the 'dots' .... ummmm, maybe somebody could make a list & post it on here or even start a new thread just for that purpose?

PS: I think I'm going to look for the article I saw on the Urban Shield Drill in our newspaper & add it here if okay // not wishing to do thread drift so will remove it if a problem.

=========

ETA: I don't have time now to find that article but will try later today. Also, forgot to mention that here in FW this past week, I've seen 2 city "T" busses with side ads about "Being Prepared for Disasters" by the local Disaster Management team or something like that -- never seen these ads before ..so hummmm -- > the timing of all this is most definitely VERY interesting! -- BLESSINGS & PRAYERS ALL

[//End Quote Snip --- > see article quoted in Willowwind's original post for the text]

Willowwind, I think you give an excellent assessment of the "BIGGER PICTURE" for what might really be going on in conjunction with this news about the satellite.

Seriously, I feel bombarded by all the seemingly *crazy/weird* stuff that's going on & also all the breaking news reports such as:

-- The sudden news release this week about how there may be billions of "earth-like" planets in our Milky Way Galaxy = WOW!

-- The new report that just came out about there is a much higher risk of meteors striking our planet than had been previously thought...

~~~~

And then there's stuff like all the fireball & strange orbs, pulsating objects (go see the Earthchanges sub forum here up in the box at top of main page)

Also, saw thread that Fisher posted in past day or so -- it was about how there's been a FEMA drill for some kind of catastrophic impact along the eastern coast of USA ... (don't recall title so perhaps someone can link it here?) so wondering if this might have been in preparation for this falling satellite -- or God only knows what it might really be & the satellite is just the "cover story" for something else ???

Last thing is that our local media here in DFW area has been reporting about how there's a major FEMA, etc Emergency Preparedness type DRILL going on in this area this weekend & last into the week ,, I think it is supposed to "end" the day that that the Electric Grid-X operation (a national drill?) begins. In the local paper (Fort Worth Star Telegram) they called it Urban Shield North Central Texas 2013 and it is supposed to start on November 9th = today. This drill here is being coordinated through the North Central Texas Council of Governments and there will be several exercises involving mock-up situations around the area.

It seems really strange that this drill in DFW area will be {{eta: IS }} going on right before the Electrical Grid-X Drill begins = YIKES!?!?

So, it is likely even more things like this are going on & just don't know about them... Do feel it is important to consider all these factors >> like connecting the 'dots' .... ummmm, maybe somebody could make a list & post it on here or even start a new thread just for that purpose?

PS: I think I'm going to look for the article I saw on the Urban Shield Drill in our newspaper & add it here if okay // not wishing to do thread drift so will remove it if a problem.

=========

ETA: I don't have time now to find that article but will try later today. Also, forgot to mention that here in FW this past week, I've seen 2 city "T" busses with side ads about "Being Prepared for Disasters" by the local Disaster Management team or something like that -- never seen these ads before ..so hummmm -- > the timing of all this is most definitely VERY interesting! -- BLESSINGS & PRAYERS ALL

Thanks Gisgaia and Berta!!

Heres an article about the texas drill...it mentions another one on the west coast recently ...residents don't seem to be happy with it.

ARLINGTON — A group of 25 people angrily left the City Council chambers Tuesday night after voicing objections to this weekend’s regional disaster drill, saying it is a “militarization of the police.”

The North Central Texas Council of Governments is sponsoring the Urban Shield exercise Friday through Sunday to test the region’s ability to respond to terrorist events and other emergencies that could happen simultaneously throughout North Texas.

Police officers and firefighters will go through several training exercises including school shooting scenarios and mass transportation incidents. Arlington, Fort Worth, Dallas, Garland, Grand Prairie and other area cities will participate.

But the training exercises became controversial to some people after they learned that first responders in Boston had been through the training before the April 15 Boston Marathon bombing. Protesters said the tactics that first responders reportedly learned were excessive when it came to searching for the bombers.

“What happened in Boston won’t be allowed here by the population. That will be a danger to everyone. The way they went through people’s homes. The way they pointed weapons,” said Douglas Bell, 33, a disabled veteran who was among four residents who spoke in opposition Tuesday night. “Our people should not be trained to do that. It is unnecessary.”

Mayor Robert Cluck defended the joint exercise, saying the city often engages in preparedness exercises because public safety is complicated and everyone needs to know what their job is in an emergency.

“Clearly the world is more dangerous, but this exercise is not prompted by any one recent incident,” Cluck said earlier Tuesday.

Future events such as the 2014 NCAA Final Four at AT&T Stadium increase the city’s need to be prepared, Arlington Fire Chief Don Crowson said. His department will train on scenarios including collapsed buildings.

“The Urban Shield exercise is simply just that — it’s an exercise in preparedness, for man-made and natural emergencies,” Crowson said. “It keeps our people safe. We protect our community through these efforts.”

Exactly where most of the training will be conducted has not been disclosed. One exercise will be at Tarrant County College Northwest Campus in Fort Worth. The council of governments said it will disclose more details about the event today.

The training is being paid for with homeland security grants.
Urban Shield is a national first responder training program conducted by Cytel Group.

On Oct. 25, a group called the “Facing Urban Shield Action Network” protested in front of a Marriott Hotel in Oakland, Calif., where the city was hosting its annual Urban Shield disaster training exercise.

A member of the network told CBS San Francisco that the training was creating “militarization of police” and that “the war is coming to our streets.”

On Tuesday night, Jacob Cordoba, 26, of Arlington questioned the cities’ and council of governments’ right to run the terror drills.

“We saw an entire city locked down under martial law when two brothers killed three people,” Cordoba said, adding that officers in the Boston area were reportedly pointing rifles in residents’ faces and entering homes without warrants to search for the suspects.

Renee Barrett, 42, drove to the Arlington council meeting from her home in Euless. She was in the group that angrily left the chambers.

“My main concern is the militarization of the police. Our country is turning into a police state,” Barrett said.

Bell said he and others standing outside the chambers Tuesday night agreed to show up and protest when they find out where the exercises will be conducted.Staff writer Susan Schrock contributed to this report.

I find this a interesting bit of distraction. Something launched in 09 only had fuel for four years, hummmmm and didn't they already have a plan 4yrs ago to blow stuff before it could reach us? I'm sure they have the power to shut these things down,interesting timing here, it lands just before the grid exercise. Maybe one of the pieces hits a plant and the exercise goes real. Maybe this is a distraction from something else. Looky here we will throw the theorist a bone a falling satalite that looks like a shuttle just like in the killshot prediction that should keep them busy while we do what we want.

One problem with satellites is that they simply can not hold a large amount of fuel. The lift engine is jettisoned, and on board thrusters perform "station keeping position holding". As the Hydrazine is used up at some point attitude control is lost, then the satellite will move from the desired orbit.

Since the earth's atmosphere acts like a brake, the super thin (low density) air molecules produce drag, and the atmosphere expands and contracts during the day night cycle, and also with solar output, which is typically higher during sun spot maximuma, it is impossible to predict when and where the drag will overcome the orbital speed and the satellite will 'fall'.

To predict the exact 'splash down' would require exact data on the density at the orbital height. There are way too many random and unknowable factors.

I worry less about this 'bird' then some of the old USSR recon birds with large nuke power supplies on board.
One of those fell near/on Yellowknife in Canada and the clean up was a mess.
I am persoannaly a lot more worried about slipping in the shower or our "killer Kitty Cat" attacking me with lethal results then some piece of space debris. The Killer Kitty Cat is the most gentle laid back cat I have ever know. Step on her tail, and she meows and looks up at you as if to say "really".

Wow..... a lot of you need to get a life. When satellites run out of fuel they fall to earth. It happens EVERY time. Quit trying to make a conspiracy out of everything.

That would be easy to do if we didn't have a buncha SECRETIVE LYING GOVERNMENT ASSHOLES at each and every turn of our piddly little lives. Twenty years ago I would've agreed with you. Now though....no way. Not with the En-Ess-aye and See-I-aye and BullShit alphabets spying on us at every red light and stop sign and flying around drones that look like dragonflies and mosquitos.

And another thing....they know perfectly well what goes on during mass power outages. They have been through it many times live and on set with Katrina and Ivan and Sandy and all those winter storms....so what are they doing different in a drill?

That would be easy to do if we didn't have a buncha SECRETIVE LYING GOVERNMENT ASSHOLES at each and every turn of our piddly little lives. Twenty years ago I would've agreed with you. Now though....no way. Not with the En-Ess-aye and See-I-aye and BullShit alphabets spying on us at every red light and stop sign and flying around drones that look like dragonflies and mosquitos.

And another thing....they know perfectly well what goes on during mass power outages. They have been through it many times live and on set with Katrina and Ivan and Sandy and all those winter storms....so what are they doing different in a drill?

Right. On.

The thing about common sense is, it is not so common any more

Sic Semper Tyrannis

It is difficult to stand idly by and watch the vacuum of ignorance being filled with lies. ~Raven

I find this a interesting bit of distraction. Something launched in 09 only had fuel for four years, hummmmm and didn't they already have a plan 4yrs ago to blow stuff before it could reach us? I'm sure they have the power to shut these things down,interesting timing here, it lands just before the grid exercise. Maybe one of the pieces hits a plant and the exercise goes real. Maybe this is a distraction from something else. Looky here we will throw the theorist a bone a falling satalite that looks like a shuttle just like in the killshot prediction that should keep them busy while we do what we want.

They don't launch them with self-destruct charges in the space craft. They plan on letting them burn up when done. It's not necessarily a conspiracy.

http://science.slashdot.org/story/13...e-it-will-land
"The Gravity field and steady-state Ocean Circulation Explorer or GOCE Satellite is expected to fall to Earth this weekend. It weighs over a ton and unfortunately the Scientists don't exactly know where it will land. You can track it here. It should re-enter sometime between Sunday night and Monday morning. Makr Hopkins, chair of the National Society's Executive Committee said: 'The satellite is one of the few satellites in a Polar Orbit. Consequently, it could land almost anywhere.' The GOCE mission was to create an accurate gravity map of the Earth."

This is the day the Lord has made; we will rejoice and be glad in it." PSALMS 118:24.

Went out this morning shortly after 4am with daughter and watched the sky. We saw at least 10 satellites and about a dozen meteors.

One satellite must have just caught the (below horizon) sunlight just right and flashed two times brightly in our direction. Some of the satellites move very quickly.... nearer earth. Those further out are slow movers.

There was no set pattern for their movement. Some went north-south. Some went southwest to northeast.

As we were watching the meteors, I thought about how risky it is to live in the space station. And... the survival of the satellites testifies to the broad expanse of sky. If there were ever catastrophic hits of satellites at the right angle, the shrapnel could cascade into a curtain of debris as other satellites are hit.

The next two months will be interesting viewing times. Enjoy.

Flashes may have been Iridium satellites. Heavens-Above.com has the ability to, once you've input your location, give you a list of satellite passes (non-secret ones of course), including the ISS for your area.

Went out this morning shortly after 4am with daughter and watched the sky. We saw at least 10 satellites and about a dozen meteors.

One satellite must have just caught the (below horizon) sunlight just right and flashed two times brightly in our direction.

Originally Posted by IdahoMtnDevil

Flashes may have been Iridium satellites. Heavens-Above.com has the ability to, once you've input your location, give you a list of satellite passes (non-secret ones of course), including the ISS for your area.

Uh oh, they saw you and took your picture! Two people watching the satellite - two flashes. The NSA is probably putting you on some list for mapping their super-dooper-really dooper- iridium satellites!

Wow..... a lot of you need to get a life. When satellites run out of fuel they fall to earth. It happens EVERY time. Quit trying to make a conspiracy out of everything.

WOW...Just WOW!

Why bother posting on this thread if all it is to YOU is a conspiracy?

Let me tell you something you already know. The world ain't all sunshine and rainbows. It's a very mean and nasty place and I don't care how tough you are it will beat you to your knees and keep you there permanently if you let it. You, me, or nobody is gonna hit as hard as life. But it ain't about how hard ya hit. It's about how hard you can get hit and keep moving forward. -Rocky Balboa~

That would be easy to do if we didn't have a buncha SECRETIVE LYING GOVERNMENT ASSHOLES at each and every turn of our piddly little lives. Twenty years ago I would've agreed with you. Now though....no way. Not with the En-Ess-aye and See-I-aye and BullShit alphabets spying on us at every red light and stop sign and flying around drones that look like dragonflies and mosquitos.

And another thing....they know perfectly well what goes on during mass power outages. They have been through it many times live and on set with Katrina and Ivan and Sandy and all those winter storms....so what are they doing different in a drill?

Big ditto!

Let me tell you something you already know. The world ain't all sunshine and rainbows. It's a very mean and nasty place and I don't care how tough you are it will beat you to your knees and keep you there permanently if you let it. You, me, or nobody is gonna hit as hard as life. But it ain't about how hard ya hit. It's about how hard you can get hit and keep moving forward. -Rocky Balboa~

The current prediction for Sunspot Cycle 24 gives a smoothed sunspot number maximum of about 65 in the Summer of 2013. The smoothed sunspot number has already reached 67 (in February 2012) due to the strong peak in late 2011 so the official maximum will be at least this high. The smoothed sunspot number has been flat over the last four months. We are currently over four years into Cycle 24. The current predicted and observed size makes this the smallest sunspot cycle since Cycle 14 which had a maximum of 64.2 in February of 1906. Predicting the behavior of a sunspot cycle is fairly reliable once the cycle is well underway (about 3 years after the minimum in sunspot number occurs [see Hathaway, Wilson, and Reichmann Solar Physics; 151, 177 (1994)]). Prior to that time the predictions are less reliable but nonetheless equally as important. Planning for satellite orbits and space missions often require knowledge of solar activity levels years in advance. A number of techniques are used to predict the amplitude of a cycle during the time near and before sunspot minimum. Relationships have been found between the size of the next cycle maximum and the length of the previous cycle, the level of activity at sunspot minimum, and the size of the previous cycle.

Among the most reliable techniques are those that use the measurements of changes in the Earth's magnetic field at, and before, sunspot minimum. These changes in the Earth's magnetic field are known to be caused by solar storms but the precise connections between them and future solar activity levels is still uncertain.

Of these "geomagnetic precursor" techniques three stand out. The earliest is from Ohl and Ohl [Solar-Terrestrial Predictions Proceedings, Vol. II. 258 (1979)] They found that the value of the geomagnetic aa index at its minimum was related to the sunspot number during the ensuing maximum. The primary disadvantage of this technique is that the minimum in the geomagnetic aa index often occurs slightly after sunspot minimum so the prediction isn't available until the sunspot cycle has started.

An alternative method is due to a process suggested by Joan Feynman. She separates the geomagnetic aa index into two components: one in phase with and proportional to the sunspot number, the other component is then the remaining signal. This remaining signal has, in the past, given good estimates of the sunspot numbers several years in advance. The maximum in this signal occurs near sunspot minimum and is proportional to the sunspot number during the following maximum. This method does allow for a prediction of the next sunspot maximum at the time of sunspot minimum.

A third method is due to Richard Thompson [Solar Physics148, 383 (1993)]. He found a relationship between the number of days during a sunspot cycle in which the geomagnetic field was "disturbed" and the amplitude of the next sunspot maximum. His method has the advantage of giving a prediction for the size of the next sunspot maximum well before sunspot minimum.

We have suggested using the average of the predictions given by the Feynman-based method and by Thompson's method. [See Hathaway, Wilson, and Reichmann J. Geophys. Res.104, 22,375 (1999)] However, both of these methods were impacted by the "Halloween Events" of October/November 2003 which were not reflected in the sunspot numbers. Both methods give larger than average amplitude to Cycle 24 while its delayed start and low minimum strongly suggest a much smaller cycle.

The smoothed aa index reached its minimum (a record low) of 8.4 in September of 2009. Using Ohl's method now indicates a maximum sunspot number of 70 ± 18 for cycle 24. We then use the shape of the sunspot cycle as described by Hathaway, Wilson, and Reichmann [Solar Physics151, 177 (1994)] and determine a starting time and amplitude for the cycle to produce a prediction of the monthly sunspot numbers through the next cycle. We find a maximum of about 65 in the Summer of 2013. The predicted numbers are available in a text file, as a GIF image, and as a pdf-file. As the cycle progresses, the prediction process switches over to giving more weight to the fitting of the monthly values to the cycle shape function. At this phase of cycle 24 we now give 80% weight to the amplitude from curve-fitting technique of Hathaway, Wilson, and Reichmann Solar Physics151, 177 (1994). That technique currently gives similar values to those of Ohl's method.

Another indicator of the level of solar activity is the flux of radio emission from the Sun at a wavelength of 10.7 cm (2.8 GHz frequency). This flux has been measured daily since 1947. It is an important indicator of solar activity because it tends to follow the changes in the solar ultraviolet that influence the Earth's upper atmosphere and ionosphere. Many models of the upper atmosphere use the 10.7 cm flux (F10.7) as input to determine atmospheric densities and satellite drag. F10.7 has been shown to follow the sunspot number quite closely and similar prediction techniques can be used. Our predictions for F10.7 are available in a text file, as a GIF image, and as a pdf-file. Current values for F10.7 can be found at: ftp://ftp.geolab.nrcan.gc.ca/data/solar_flux/daily_flux_values/fluxtable.txt.

Let me tell you something you already know. The world ain't all sunshine and rainbows. It's a very mean and nasty place and I don't care how tough you are it will beat you to your knees and keep you there permanently if you let it. You, me, or nobody is gonna hit as hard as life. But it ain't about how hard ya hit. It's about how hard you can get hit and keep moving forward. -Rocky Balboa~

gisgaia I do feel some manipulation from the news lately. It's clear they are trying to guide our thinking at certain times to go in a certain direction.

I call it my hinkey feeling. Like when my kids come up with a pretty plausible explanation when they are confronted with a possible wrongdoing. It sure sounds good and may seem logical but somehow mom mode kicks in and just knows there is something hinkey about their answers. 99 percent of the time I'm right and the truth comes out eventually. Not saying I'm right about this but it does give me that hinkey feeling, like there is more going on below the surface.

msswv123 thank you for the cluster article that screams dot to me. The last several years many articles and studies have been done to talk about all the junk floating around up there and how crowded it is getting. Any new launches are very interesting to me. Here's one from this year about the crowding.

wn4isx that was some good info, thank you. I'm not that great with the science parts. I do have a question though, if they can't tell where it will land how do they give odds of it hitting a actual person? Here is a article that says their standards for safety mandate 1 in 10,000 chance of hitting a person. If they have no idea where it will land how do they figure those odds?

With all the crap up there we will keep seeing this stuff fall. What goes up must come down. Regular people know this,why didn't the brains behind these satellites prepare for their eventual descent? I find it hard to believe that they didn't,which is partly why it makes me feel hinkey.

Never let a crisis go to waste,even if you have to make the crisis to further the agenda.

Great Thread Berta.
I added in a thread I believe in the BS (?) a couple weeks ago what DH had told me as He had a conversation with a Russian that word has it FEMA and .GUV Alpha Agencies have bought tractors full of antibiotics and water for the East Coast.
I have no idea what all that means but I'll leave all to speculate.
Blessing's,
MCA

Let me tell you something you already know. The world ain't all sunshine and rainbows. It's a very mean and nasty place and I don't care how tough you are it will beat you to your knees and keep you there permanently if you let it. You, me, or nobody is gonna hit as hard as life. But it ain't about how hard ya hit. It's about how hard you can get hit and keep moving forward. -Rocky Balboa~

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