Friday, February 29, 2008

Incredible piece in the New York Times Magazine about the Israeli Rabbinate insisting that Jews go to incredible lengths to prove their religion to get married.

This is why the United States has secular marriage: to prevent religious groups from co-opting the state's criteria for civil marriage. What's most incredible about this situation is that it is dividing the ultra-Orthodox Jews in Israel and the Orthodox Jews in the United States. If the existing fissures among movements weren't enough, the Israeli Rabbinate is insistent on creating more.

Arnie Eisen, chancellor of the American Conservative movement’s Jewish Theological Seminary puts is well when he says that: “All the data shows a growing rift between American Jews and Israeli Jews, and the younger you are as an American Jew, the less that you care about the state of Israel. This is just terrible. And one of the reasons for it — not the only reason, but one of the reasons for it — is this kind of insulting treatment of the majority of American Jews by the Israeli rabbinate.”

Watching Ralph Ndaer in CSPAN this morning makes one remember just how elloquent he is as a consumer advocate, and how much the American public owes Ralph for his work from the 1960s to the 1990s.Especially these days, America needs a strong consumer advocate.

However, Ralph's vanity campaigns for president in races that he could not win have undone almost all of the thanks and good will that he is owed.Something happens when an American runs for president.His or her motivations and goals become suspect.They are perceived as being partisan.And, because politics is a winner-take all sport (only one person gets to be president), his or her ideas are inevitably compared to the other candidates ideals, instead of on a more absolute scale of merit.

It is ironic that the model for staying out of politics to advance a non-partisan cause is none other than Al Gore.Think of what would have happened to Gore's environmental campaign had he run for president this year.(Whether the politicizing of his campaign would have been worth the cost is a worthwhile question for Gore; though not for Nader.)

Ralph Nader, this country has needed a seasoned non-partisan consumer advocate these past dozen years.Instead, it got a third party candidate siphoning votes off of the Democratic candidate whose ideas got lost in the presidential shuffle.

Does Ralph Nader bare all of the blame for the last 7 years of George W. Bush?No.Does he bear some?Yes.And does he bear all of the blame for turning himself from a spectacular consumer advocate into a vanity candidate for president?Yes.

Thursday, February 28, 2008

TIME Magainze has an excellent piece about presidents and experience, concluding that:

"When Americans pass over the best-credentialed candidates because their heart or their gut leads them elsewhere, they are only reflecting a visceral understanding that the presidency involves tests unlike all others....An ideal President is both ruthless and compassionate, visionary and pragmatic, cunning and honest, patient and bold, combining the eloquence of a psalmist with the timing of a jungle cat. Not exactly the sort of data you can find on a résumé."

Wednesday, February 27, 2008

New York City Mayor Bloomberg is once and for all not running for president.

Bloomberg is likely not running because the two presumptive nominees, BarackObama and John McCain, each have a history of appealing to independents and finding a middle ground, leaving little room for a centrist independent.

However, Bloomberg has left the door wide open to support a candidate who appeals to his pragmatic, non-partisan way of solving problems. While McCain's past actions suggest he could be that candidate, Obama's rhetoric and approach, combined with McCain's tack to the right over the past few years could lead Bloomberg to endorse Obama at some point in the next few months.

Slate.com has a spectacular video on how this year's Obama, Clinton, McCain, Huckabee race looks an awful lot like the last two seasons of the West Wing, where a young, charismatic, minority candidate defeated an old Washington hand to race a moderate old veteran senator who defeated an Evangelical in his primary.

The slate.com video's most interesting point is the David Axelrod, now Obama's chief presidential campaign strategist but in 2004 his chief senate campaign strategist, was actually involved in the creation of Matt Santos, and so in some ways based him off of BarackObama.

Serbian Foreign Minister VukJeremic has a fascinatingpiece in today's New York Times op-ed page on why Kosovo can't declare independence without an agreement with Serbia.

That's all fair and good, but what happens if Serbia has no desired to let Kovoso go (as it did Montenegro)? What happens if Kosovo is terrified of another genocidal maniac taking over Serbia? What about the fact that Serbia has had little control over Kosovo for the past 10 years as it is?

Jeremic claims that the international system has failed in the case of Kosovo. But how is a population overwhelming expressing support for self-determination, independence, and peaceful coexistence outside the existing international system? Woodrow Wilson may disagree.

Herbert correctly points out that Nader has almost destroyed all the appreciation and respect that Americans owe him for his incredible work as a consumer advocate by perpetually running for president.

Scott Kleeb, who won 45% of the vote in the Nebraska 3rd congressional district has finally decided to run for the Senate. If Kleeb wins the primary, he will likely face former Nebraska Governor and U.S. Secretary for Agriculture Mike Johanns.

Kleeb has even picked up former Giuliani foreign policy advisor and Reagan State Department veteran Charlie Hill's endorsement.

Americas inclined to vote for Nader should think long and hard about what their votes for him in 2000 have cost this country over the past 7 years. Does anyone still believe that there would have been no difference if Al Gore had been president of this country instead of George W. Bush? And does anyone really believe that John McCain would be indistinguishable from Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama?

Until this country changes the way it assigns electoral votes, don't vote for Nader.

Tuesday, February 19, 2008

80 seats for the late Benezir Bhutto's Pakistani People's Party, now led by her widow, Asi Ali Zardari.

66 for the Pakistan Mulsim League-N, led by former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif

38 for the pro-Musharraf party.

out of 240 total seats.

It will be fascinating to watch what happens next, as Zardari, Sharif, and Musharraf attempt to form some kind of government. It will be equally interesting to see if Musharraf manages to hold on to his newly-civilian presidential role in the face of such an electoral rout.

Wisconsin - Obama will win Wisconsin. He has led is all but one poll over the last few weeks, and the Badger state fits Obama's best mold of a white Midwestern state. Obama also has the support of Governor Jim Doyle, with Senators Kohl and Feingold still uncommitted. Add Obama's significant momentum on top of that, and he'll carry the day.

Hawaii - Obama has won the more delegates than Clinton in every single caucus state so far (including Nevada). Add to that fact that Obama spent much of his childhood in Hawaii, and that his sister has been campaigning like mad there, and Obama pulls out a big win here.

Monday, February 18, 2008

Richard Cohen has an interesting piece about the suffering in Sderot, which is pounded with dozens of rockets from Gaza every day.

This is not to diminish the true horrors and suffering going on in Gaza right now, but only to emphasize Cohen's point that sooner or later, Israel will do something drastic in response, and may G-d help all of us with the consequences of that action.

Fareed Zakaria on the End of Conservatism. (As excellent as Zakaria is, why must all articles begin with "The End of"? Why can't someone write an article entitled "The End of Articles thatAnnounce the End of Something.")

Interesting piece on the somewhat random events that have led to Obama holding his senate seat (and Clinton not holding it). See also this previous post.

Finally, an excellent op-ed on why Obama's "Present" votes in the Illinois Senate were actually significnt. It seems that for a law to pass, it has to have a majority of all senators, not just of those voting "Aye" and "Nay." As a result, Obama's "Present" were actually partly "Nay" votes, giving them far more teeth than he's been given credit for in the past.

Thursday, February 14, 2008

Wednesday, February 13, 2008

MSNBC's first read has an excellent piece on why Obama is now the front runner. Highlight:

"For Clinton to overtake Obama for the pledged delegate lead -- which we think is the single most important statistic for the superdelegates to decide their vote -- she'll have to win 55% of the remaining delegates. Assuming next week goes Obama's way in Wisconsin and Hawaii, that percentage rises to 57%. Toss in likely Obama victories in Vermont, Wyoming, Mississippi, Oregon, Montana, and South Dakota, then Clinton's percentage need tops 60% of the remaining delegates available. And this is simply for her to regain the pledged delegate lead."

Monday, February 11, 2008

Former Solicitor General and the lead Bush lawyer in Bush v. Gore argues that the Democrats are likely in store for their own legal fight this August, involving the Florida Supreme Court and United States Supreme Court.

Tom Lantos, the only Holocaust survivor to serve in the United States Congress, died today.

Lantos embodied what is most incredible about the United States. When he announced his retirement from Congress last month due to the cancer that ultimately took his life, Lantos said:

'It is only in the United States that a penniless survivor of the Holocaust and a fighter in the anti-Nazi underground could have received an education, raised a family and had the privilege of serving the last three decades of his life as a member of Congress....I will never be able to express fully my profoundly felt gratitude to this great country.''

Under the Zell Miller Rule, any Democratic superdelegate who endorses a Republican for president loses his status as a superdelegate, since by definition he does not support any of the Democratic candidates. Because of his support for Senator John McCain, Senator Joe Lieberman just lost his status as a superdelegate.

This is a fair punishment for Lieberman for crossing party lines this early in the presidential process, before the Democrats have even chosen a nominee, since he is saying that he supports McCain over ANY Democrat running.

Saturday, February 9, 2008

Despite the lack of polling for Maine, Barack Obama will win Maine by a hair, if for nothing else that he has won every caucus so far, with the one exception of Nevada which has far more Hispanic voters than Maine.

Friday, February 8, 2008

1. Nebraska - Obama. It's a red state in the Midwest. Bob Kerrey (who's supporting Clinton) is still well liked but hasn't lived there in 8 years.

2. Lousiana - Obama. Louisiana may not have enough black voters left to be a blue state anymore (see Gov. Bobby Jindal's win last fall), but its Democratic party certainly has enough to give Obama a win.

3. Washington - Obama. He tends to do well in caucus states, and among over-educated whites, which Washington has plenty of. His endorsement today by its female governor also can't hurt.

4. The Virgin Islands - Obama. There is no reliable polling there, but let's wager that a mostly black CaribbeanIsland will vote for Obama.

Thursday, February 7, 2008

The Washington Post's Paul Kane writes: "Here's the math. There are 3,253 pledged delegates, those doled out based on actual voting in primaries and caucuses. And you need 2,025 to win the nomination. To date, about 55% of those 3,253 delegates have been pledged in the voting process -- with Clinton and Obama roughly splitting them at about 900 delegates a piece. That means there are now only about 1,400 delegates left up for grabs in the remaining states and territories voting.

"So, do the math. If they both have about 900 pledged delegates so far, they need to win more than 1,100 of the remaining 1,400 delegates to win the nomination through actual voting.

"Ain't gonna happen, barring a stunning scandal or some new crazy revelation. So, they'll keep fighting this thing out, each accumulating their chunk of delegates, one of them holding a slight edge and bothing finishing the voting process with 1,600 or so delegates. And then the super delegates decide this thing. That's the math."

Reporter Kate Spicer writes an excellent chronicle of her attempts to become a red-carpet-worthy size zero.

Spicer writes that:

"Dr. Carel Le Roux, a metabolic specialist from London's Imperial College who guided this experiment, says you can only fool the body into letting go of weight if you lose it at a crippled snail's pace -- no more than half a pound a week. That requires cutting, depending on your metabolic rate, only 1,500 calories off your weekly nutritional needs. I was cutting about 8,000 calories a week, and my primal animal instinct was to binge. When the doctor discovered my disordered behavior, he said matter-of-factly that it was normal pathology in someone who has been starved, and he pulled me off the diet immediately."

Now that we all know how much superdelegates are going to matter in the race for the Democratic presidential nomination, the following website should be of great help. It is by far the best tool so far to track all of the 796 superdelegates.

Wednesday, February 6, 2008

Apparently, anything greater than 30% turnout in yesterday's Super Tuesday primaries and caucuses would be a "high turnout." This is pathetic.

It's time for the US to do something about this. The best option would be to follow the example of Australia: make voting mandatory. All Americans have to vote in every primary and general election, or pay a fine (e.g. $50 or $100). Americans wouldn't have to vote for a particular candidate - going to the polls and checking "abstain" would suffice.

There would certainly be issues around voters who could not make it to the polls. In primaries and general elections, this would be solved by either making election day on a federal or state holiday, or more easily by continuing to expand the use of absentee ballots. Caucuses would be more difficult, as the voters have to be a particular place at a particular time to vote, but that only raises the greater problems with caucuses that will be subject of a future post.

Apathy should not be an option for American voters. There has to be a tangible opportunity cost for refusing to take part in American democracy.

Despite Mike Huckabee and Mitt Romney winning several primaries and caucuses last night, John McCain has all but clinched the Republican nomination.

McCain adviser Charlie Black said, "To date, we have 775 delegates, Romney has 284, Huckabee has 205. It takes 1,191 to clinch the nomination. There are 963 left to be chosen, so Romney or Huckabee would have to have all of them -- all of them -- to get to 1,191. Now you can't do that because a majority of those 963 are chosen in proportional primaries, which means you'd have to get 100% if the vote to get them all."

Another great piece describing the disconnect between those under 40 who overwhelming support Obama, and those over 40 who overwhelmingly support Clinton.

Also, Connecticut Congresswoman Rosa DeLauro, now that Senator Chris Dodd is out of the race, endorses Barack Obama. This is especially notable because DeLauro was the first executive director of EMILY's list, which aims to elect female Democrats who support abortion rights. It seems that DeLauro has decided to value the content of a candidate's message over his or her symbolic value.

Finally, check out this video of Obama's speeches overlayed with celebrities.