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2/26/2007

Double Trouble

The Index weakness today was deceptive. For the first time in this rally the 100% plus universe has crossed 400 today. As I have said earlier, this number can go up to 1200 plus in healthy rally and the 200% plus number exceeds 300 by the end of rallies. If you look at number of breakouts in the universe , it has increased sharply to 36 indicating buyers still at work. So far the market action looks like garden variety sector rotation and post earning season selling in some sectors.

Market Monitor

Total 4% plus bullish breakouts=109Total 4% plus bearish breakouts= 6665 day bullish/bearish ratio= 957/193Stocks up 50% or more in a month=13Stocks up 25% or more in a month=139Number of stocks with 100% plus move =402Number of stocks up 200% or more = 904% plus signals for 100plus universe=364% plus signals for 200plus universe=6

9 comments:

Do you have a subscription service? I would like to subscribe to your service. I am also subscriber of IBD and you also follow IBD's picks(IBD 100/200 etc). Thanks for posting all of your analysis. -mjps

Can you please explain what is an episodic pivot?As I understand, it is an event that occurs which indicates a bullish/bearish move.Usually it is increase in single day in volume and price for a stock. Correct?

Hi Pradeep. Your system is very interesting and I followed your post in the Worden forum as well. However when I do the scan with your formula it gave 20 stocks and all of the ones in your list were there except FTEK. Which is ironic as I was researching that when I found your blog. Also I notice that the %true indicator has a different number of spikes than yours and in different places.

mjps71I have no subsription service. I make my money only from trading.

GosuIt is what you say it is. See some examples to understand what I am saying.

munaibaThanks.The only post I made on Worden forum was in response to intepretation of my scan by someone. So I don't know exactly what you are referring to. If you can send me link. Also don't know which particular scan you are having problem with. Sometime when you copy and paste scans, they don't work in TC2000 unless you remove the formatting gaps.You will get the spikes in % true if you make all the scans in same color.

Thank you for your answer. I have a couple more questions to ask just to clarify the trading style. Should I post them here or do you have an email I should use as I notice that many posters seem to email you.Thanks

Ok here goes. If I have understood correctly this is what I should be doing. 1. Using the following formula;(100 * ((C + .01) - ( MINC260 + .01)) / (MINC260 + .01))>=100 and c>=.75*maxc130 and ( 100 * (C - C1) / C1) >= 5 AND V >= 1000 AND V > V1) in an easy scan to find stocks that have risen 100% plus in last 260 days from the low and which are up more than 4% on higher volume. Today's minimum volume is above 100000.2. Use the 5 bullish scan formulae you gave in separate easyscans. Then add all these formulae to the bottom window of TC on a per cent true basis to get the spikes.

What this gave me was TATTF in the first mentioned scan showing several spikes. Then the first 3 of the bullish scans you gave found nothing. The fourth found RSHand the fifth found ELOS, PTMK,SDS and MQC. Is this a correct result? I want to be sure that I have done it properly.

Also I wanted to ask if you have other criteria that you use to quantify A, B or C trades that can recognise which ones will do more than just spike up the one day and then fall back. e.g ELOS had a spike in Dec 06 but if you had bought that day you would have lost as it declined the very next day.

MunaibaYou are mixing up things. There are two seperate concepts.Double trouble is based on 100% plus growth. Episodic pivots is based on certain % move plus other discretionary filters.Double Trouble as I described can not be scanned by TC2000. Because the 25% of high is actauly the 25% of highest price during the 100% plus move. As to A, B, C as a very broad generalisation A are earnings based strategies. Plus some stocksfrom neglect strategyB is episodic pivots and IBD 200C is double trouble

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