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Re: Why is NBC making the same mistake again?

But Jay getting the Tonight Show back had more to do with Conan losing it

Except that Conan didn't lose the Tonight Show. NBC's plan was to move the Tonight Show with Conan by a half hour and give Jay a 30 minute show at 11:30. That move would satisfy the local stations whose News ratings were suffering because of Leno's failed show. And it would make Jay happy because he'd have a job. But Conan didn't think the Tonight Show should move so he took a buy out instead.

I just don't think it's accurate to say Conan lost the Tonight Show when NBC wanted him to continue hosting it, just at a different time.

Re: Why is NBC making the same mistake again?

No, it's accurate to say Conan lost the Tonight Show. The Tonight Show follows the local news. If they created a new show for Jay at at 11:30, regardless of what it's called, IT would be the Tonight Show as far as prestige goes and as far as reality goes. I realize that option was on the table but it never was a realistic option and IMO would've been one step removed from Jay right back where he had been (Tonight Show host regardless of what it is called at 11:30) and Conan back as the defacto Late Night host (even if it was called the Tonight Show)... That was just not going to happen because it would always be a demotion for Conan and there was no way he was going to accept that.

And would they have really had a 30 min Leno show?

IMHO this whole idea was just an attempt at some face saving spin that nobody in practice expected to happen. They just hoped some Conan fans might be placated by the idea that Conan had a choice to keep the Tonight Show gig and wasn't being forced off it. The reality was, Conan was losing the gig (because losing the 11:30 time slot was really the gig), he just needed to figure out the legalities that completed the process and got everyone out of the mess whole.

Nuntius was right for a while. I was wrong for a while. But ultimately I was right and Frank Vogel has been let go.

------

"A player who makes a team great is more valuable than a great player. Losing yourself in the group, for the good of the group, thatís teamwork."

Re: Why is NBC making the same mistake again?

This is the same network that fired Dan Harmon after season three of Community for being difficult to work with, turning in scripts late, and going over budget. Then, after the star of the show (that NBC can't make up its mind whether to cancel or not) threatens to walk if Harmon isn't brought back, the former creator is brought back. And we just watched a great episode that was confirmed to be over-budget, probably turned in late, and likely pretty difficult to complete.

Re: Why is NBC making the same mistake again?

Leno put the viewers to sleep at 10 pm and killed the rest of the schedule. Lead in mattered to the 11 o'clock news, that's why their numbers dropped. And it mattered to Conan. That's why NBC yanked the plug on Leno at 10.

NBC has had great shows at 10 pm over the years. Some better than others. But with the same dog at 10 pm 5 days a week, Conan was screwed. People weren't watching Leno at 10 pm so no one was seeing the promos they ran for Conan's show. And yes, people do tune in to see shows based on promos.

Saying that "Conan's show failed and that's that" isn't very accurate. NBC wanted him to continue as host of the tonight show. But they wanted to delay the start by 1/2 hour (if I remember correctly) and have a new Leno show as a 11:30 lead in. Conan wasn't interested in that.

You're leaving out the crucial detail that Conan's Tonight Show was on a full three months before Jay Leno's new show started. Conan took over in June while Jay's new show didn't start until September. Conan started out with very high ratings because people wanted to give him a chance, but they dropped quickly because the audience simply didn't like the show. Conan's transition to the Tonight Show was promoted for months and even years before he started, which is why it got high ratings at the very beginning. You would have had to been living under a rock to not know that Conan was hosting the show. No one needed 10 PM lead ins to tell them that. People have remote controls. They watched initially, but left the show quickly when they didn't like what they saw. Viewers left long before Leno's show started in September. You traditionally don't have strong lead ins in the summer, yet Leno always had solid summer ratings. Conan didn't.

Wikipedia gives a good summary which links to several articles from the time:

Highly promoted prior to its premiere on the late night scene, ratings for the debut episode were higher than both CBS's Late Show with David Letterman and ABC's Nightline combined, with a 7.1 rating and a 17 audience share.[15] In comparison, the final show with Leno averaged an 8.8 rating in metered-market households.[16] During the rest of O'Brien's premiere week, ratings dropped each day, from a 5.0 on Tuesday to a 3.5 on Friday, though the latter still exceeded that evening's 2.7 rating for Late Show.[17]

On June 9, 2009, Late Show had rated better than The Tonight Show with a 3.4 rating to 2.9 rating.[18][19] It was the first time in over eight months that Letterman rated better than his NBC counterpart.[19][20] Tonight would end up winning week two, however, with O'Brien garnering more than 850,000 viewers than Late Show with David Letterman in the 18–49 demographic, plus more than 650,000 viewers in the 18–34 demographic and more than 550,000 in the 25–54 demographic.[21]

The week before the death of Michael Jackson saw Letterman attract a larger audience than O'Brien, with The Tonight Show audience measuring as the smallest in the franchise's history, "3.3 million viewers, about two million fewer than Jay Leno's average as host."[22] The following week, O'Brien's total viewership was even lower, averaging 2.8 million; among viewers 25-to-54, he tied with Letterman, the first time O'Brien failed to win that demographic since he had become host.[23] However, The New York Times noted that the coverage of Jackson's death had placed Nightline ahead of both Letterman and O'Brien that week.[22] By the week ending August 7, repeats of The Late Show were also beating O'Brien, albeit with the thinnest of margins—the repeats got a 2.1/6 household rating and 2.95 million total viewers, vs. The Tonight Show's 2.0/5 rating and 2.94 million viewers; both were beaten that week by Nightline's 3.25 million.[24]

Although there are concerns that O'Brien's greatest strength, the "young men" demographic, can be more easily reached "on Web sites and cable channels like Comedy Central and Spike", advertisers and network executives alike point out that the first real test would come in September 2009.[22] Pulitzer Prize-winning critic Tom Shales also pointed out in August 2009 that O'Brien was "in much better shape than Leno was at the beginning."[25] O'Brien's strength was also strong among low income inner city viewers, and had always beaten Letterman by a large margin among that demographic.[22] O' Brien also received very high ratings over Letterman among African American and Hispanic viewers, which was very unusual for a white host.[22] Prior to Conan's tenure African American and Hispanic viewers were usually split among Leno and Letterman.[22]

By November 2009, two months after the premiere of The Jay Leno Show in September, ratings for The Tonight Show were down "roughly two million viewers a night year-to-year" from when Leno hosted the program.[26] Though cheaper to produce than the scripted dramas it replaced, Leno's new primetime talk show generated fewer lead-in viewers for local news programs, causing a domino effect on ratings for The Tonight Show and Late Night with Jimmy Fallon.[27]

On January 12, 2010, in response to the controversy of the late-night schedule change, O'Brien's ratings grew to 1.7 rating/7 share among adults 18–49, up 40 percent from the previous day.[28] On Thursday, January 14, 2010, Conan garnered a 1.9 rating.[29] His last show garnered his best ratings with a 4.8 rating with adults 18–49 and 40 percent better than the 3.4 rating with adults 18–49 Jay Leno got in his last show on May 29, 2009,[30]

As that says, there was a death spiral in ratings long before Jay's show started in September. This is why you don't kick off the best when he is at the top of his powers. It was completely unfair to Jay to ask him to step aside so that Conan could get the show. Jay earned the right to leave when he wanted.

Re: Why is NBC making the same mistake again?

Onto the present...
I thought Jay was all for this latest handoff and ready to retire from a regular late night gig. If he's not then I'm not sure what to say. After debacle #1, and still strong in the ratings, I'd think he'd have all the power in the world to tell NBC brass he's not interested in talking about leaving the show until he's ready to leave the show.

So if they did come to him, and if he did just roll over, well... wow.... That's hard to believe now.

That said, I think Fallon is immensely more qualified for the Tonight Show gig than O'Brien. O'Brien's schtick just didn't play well at 11:30 and he also seemed too awkward and probably self-censoring. His best shows that I saw were the shows where his leaving was basically a done deal. Fallon is really the closest to Carson that I think I've seen of all the potential names that have been out there since the last days of Carson. O'Brien was always going to alienate some of the 11:30 crowd. I don't really think Fallon will.

But this all assumes Jay goes away with a smile. If Jay is being forced out then it's going to be hard for his fans to accept anyone new behind the desk.

As for 'why' NBC would want to do this all again, I'm going to assume it's based on demographic ratings and not overall ratings. Plus I think NBC brass probably see Fallon as someone actually able to attract the coveted demographic they crave plus see him as a much better fit than O'Brien. IOW, O'Brien's flaws aren't noticeable with Fallon and they do have hindsight to see how O'Brien's flaws were magnified in the 11:30 spot. I think they see a much more comfortable transition with Fallon and I think they see Fallon as much more versatile and talented than Conan.

In fact after seeing Conan ascend to the big chair I don't think losing him seemed like all that big of a deal to them afterall. OTOH, I think they see Fallon differently. So maybe with everything they learned with the O'Brien debacle maybe they think the idea was right, just not the talent, but think this time it's different.

Nuntius was right for a while. I was wrong for a while. But ultimately I was right and Frank Vogel has been let go.

------

"A player who makes a team great is more valuable than a great player. Losing yourself in the group, for the good of the group, thatís teamwork."

Re: Why is NBC making the same mistake again?

You would have had to been living under a rock to not know that Conan was hosting the show. No one needed 10 PM lead ins to tell them that.

Nope, two bedroom townhouse. You misunderstand the point of the lead ins and promos. It's not to let people know who is hosting the show. It's to let people know who the guests are. As successful as Leno's Tonight Show is, they still promote it very heavily. That's because they believe promos will get people to tune in and watch it.

Did you stop reading your wiki citation before you got to this paragraph? It's what I originally pointed out to you. And why they canned Leno at 10 pm.

By November 2009, two months after the premiere of The Jay Leno Show in September, ratings for The Tonight Show were down "roughly two million viewers a night year-to-year" from when Leno hosted the program.[26] Though cheaper to produce than the scripted dramas it replaced, Leno's new primetime talk show generated fewer lead-in viewers for local news programs, causing a domino effect on ratings for The Tonight Show and Late Night with Jimmy Fallon.[27]

Re: Why is NBC making the same mistake again?

Nope, two bedroom townhouse. You misunderstand the point of the lead ins and promos. It's not to let people know who is hosting the show. It's to let people know who the guests are. As successful as Leno's Tonight Show is, they still promote it very heavily. That's because they believe promos will get people to tune in and watch it.

Did you stop reading your wiki citation before you got to this paragraph? It's what I originally pointed out to you. And why they canned Leno at 10 pm.

But how do you account for the three months of tumbling ratings from June-September before Leno's show even started? You can't blame Conan's crappy summer on Leno.

Sure, Leno's show didn't do anything to rescue Conan in the fall. I'm not denying that. But the public had already spoken long before that. Conan's Tonight Show was promoted heavily for MONTHS in early 2009 before he took over. People gave him a chance and wanted to check out the new show. But they didn't like what they saw and quickly left. It took just a few weeks for Letterman to start beating him the ratings. Leno's 10 PM show didn't help anything, but Conan lost his viewers long before that. You can blame Leno's show for not doing anything to help him regain an audience, but you cannot blame him for the initial losing of the audience which happened long before the 10 PM show.

Besides, a ton of people rarely watch the guests because they can't stay up super late. They just want to see the monologue. Besides, as far as lead ins are concerned, hasn't CBS generally had much better prime time shows than NBC in recent years? Yet that doesn't prevent Leno from drawing better than Letterman. People like the host they like and flip over the channel.

The Following User Says Thank You to Sollozzo For This Useful Post:

Re: Why is NBC making the same mistake again?

I remember when Conan took over Late Night. He was an odd choice because he came from a writing background and didn't have much standup experience. Most people didn't even know who he was. I thought he was awkward and had no future. But over time he really settled in to the role. And his show became groundbreaking. A masturbating bear? Comic gold.

I doubt that anyone will ever match Johnny Carson's legacy. He was great at what he did. He related to the audience better than anyone else has been able to.

Young Letterman was ground breaking. His show was edgy and unique. And the bits were great. But he's older now and shooting for a different audience. He's on the downside of his popularity and no longer doing anything new.

Leno is vanilla and appeals to the masses. Of course that brings in good ratings but he's never really contributed to the genre. That makes for a successful show but I don't watch shows just because they have good ratings.

I find Craig Ferguson really entertaining. He relates to his guests better than any of the others. It's fun seeing him talk to a star about whatever without the star just doing material. It's not over produced and scripted like the other shows. But I think he has a narrower set of guests to select from because a lot of stars just go on those shows to promote. They're not comfortable with Craig's "let's chat and be silly" format.

I tried Fallon a time or two but wasn't impressed. His interviews seemed very formulaic. It was greet, show the clip, where you gonna be next, thanks for coming. But maybe he's improved upon that now. I'll give him another look when he takes over for Jay. I definitely liked him on SNL.

Re: Why is NBC making the same mistake again?

I remember when Conan took over Late Night. He was an odd choice because he came from a writing background and didn't have much standup experience. Most people didn't even know who he was. I thought he was awkward and had no future. But over time he really settled in to the role. And his show became groundbreaking. A masturbating bear? Comic gold.

I doubt that anyone will ever match Johnny Carson's legacy. He was great at what he did. He related to the audience better than anyone else has been able to.

Young Letterman was ground breaking. His show was edgy and unique. And the bits were great. But he's older now and shooting for a different audience. He's on the downside of his popularity and no longer doing anything new.

Leno is vanilla and appeals to the masses. Of course that brings in good ratings but he's never really contributed to the genre. That makes for a successful show but I don't watch shows just because they have good ratings.

I find Craig Ferguson really entertaining. He relates to his guests better than any of the others. It's fun seeing him talk to a star about whatever without the star just doing material. It's not over produced and scripted like the other shows. But I think he has a narrower set of guests to select from because a lot of stars just go on those shows to promote. They're not comfortable with Craig's "let's chat and be silly" format.

I tried Fallon a time or two but wasn't impressed. His interviews seemed very formulaic. It was greet, show the clip, where you gonna be next, thanks for coming. But maybe he's improved upon that now. I'll give him another look when he takes over for Jay. I definitely liked him on SNL.

I want to make clear that I'm not anti-Conan. I thought he was hilarious on Late Night, but his Tonight Show simply wasn't that great.

I used to think that Letterman was hilarious and watched him over Leno for a long time, but in recent years Letterman's show really went downhill. I think that Leno delivers a superior product nowadays.

Re: Why is NBC making the same mistake again?

Nope, two bedroom townhouse. You misunderstand the point of the lead ins and promos. It's not to let people know who is hosting the show. It's to let people know who the guests are. As successful as Leno's Tonight Show is, they still promote it very heavily. That's because they believe promos will get people to tune in and watch it.

The point of lead ins is because they don't think people will turn the channel. They figure if they can ideally get you watching at 8PM you'll stay on that channel until something causes you to want to change it.

Nuntius was right for a while. I was wrong for a while. But ultimately I was right and Frank Vogel has been let go.

------

"A player who makes a team great is more valuable than a great player. Losing yourself in the group, for the good of the group, thatís teamwork."

Re: Why is NBC making the same mistake again?

NBC didn't do Conan many favors when they gave him the Tonight Show. They tried to change him and his show, rather than letting the magic that is Conan continue. It was a struggle. And then they made the Jay Leno show. NBC never gave him a fair shot. They controlled too much for it to ever succeed.

Re: Why is NBC making the same mistake again?

The point of lead ins is because they don't think people will turn the channel. They figure if they can ideally get you watching at 8PM you'll stay on that channel until something causes you to want to change it.

That's part of it. But during the lead in they run promos so you'll want to watch whatever is coming next. Like they might tease you with a news spot about a restaurant getting a low health score rating. You'll think, "I have to watch the news to see which restaurant to avoid." Or they'll promote a talk show by showing that a big star is gonna be on. Like Robin Williams. People will think, "Ok, I'll stay up and see Robin, he's always funny". Without a strong lead-in there are less people to reach with the promo's. It all works together.

Re: Why is NBC making the same mistake again?

I find Craig Ferguson really entertaining. He relates to his guests better than any of the others. It's fun seeing him talk to a star about whatever without the star just doing material. It's not over produced and scripted like the other shows. But I think he has a narrower set of guests to select from because a lot of stars just go on those shows to promote. They're not comfortable with Craig's "let's chat and be silly" format.

Yeah, Craig is the only one I watch with any consistency. Your review is spot on. It seems like every new late night host comes in wanting to make their show the one that doesn't adhere to the late night format. But since they all grew up on either Carson or Letterman, they all end up doing fairly similar things, albeit with their own specific studio team. Craig actually can mess with the format and parody the "late night douche" because he doesn't feel beholden to a previously established (and most anachronistic) idea of what a host should be. Unfortunately, other than a small, loyal internet following, it seems that most of Craig's fans not from the younger generations.

Re: Why is NBC making the same mistake again?

So I'm catching up on this... Leno apparently might've been fine staying on but his contract was expiring and NBC was anxious to get Fallon into the seat. The difference this time being (Leno says) NBC consulted him on the transition. I'm not exactly sure what he means by that though and how it's different than the first time. And they paid him to shorten his contract to move the transition up. So it's still a little odd. In fact I think it's more understandable how the first time everyone was trying to look 5 years into the future and it seemed like such a long time off until the years just flew by and Jay kind of liked where he was at the end of the 5 years and the show was still on top.

So what has changed now?

Letterman's point in the posted video about not sticking around is a good one though.

Funny thing is, NBC botched the Carson retirement and transition as well. They started planning (read: pushing) for Carson's retirement before Carson had decided to retire. Letterman now says NBC had 2 meetings with him about taking over for Carson. They wanted to make sure he was interested in hosting the Tonight Show before moving forward and at the 2nd meeting he asked them if Johnny was onboard with this and he told them they didn't need to be talking until Carson gave his blessing. And Letterman says that was the last he heard from them or about it until Leno was announced as the new host.

Then fast forward until they start pushing Jay out the door the first time. Then pushing Conan out the door. And now pushing Leno out the door again.

Wow...

Last edited by Bball; 01-26-2014 at 07:23 PM.

Nuntius was right for a while. I was wrong for a while. But ultimately I was right and Frank Vogel has been let go.

------

"A player who makes a team great is more valuable than a great player. Losing yourself in the group, for the good of the group, thatís teamwork."

Re: Why is NBC making the same mistake again?

So I'm catching up on this... Leno apparently might've been fine staying on but his contract was expiring and NBC was anxious to get Fallon into the seat. The difference this time being (Leno says) NBC consulted him on the transition. I'm not exactly sure what he means by that though and how it's different than the first time. And they paid him to shorten his contract to move the transition up. So it's still a little odd. In fact I think it's more understandable how the first time everyone was trying to look 5 years into the future and it seemed like such a long time off until the years just flew by and Jay kind of liked where he was at the end of the 5 years and the show was still on top.

So what has changed now?

Letterman's point in the posted video about not sticking around is a good one though.

Funny thing is, NBC botched the Carson retirement and transition as well. They started planning (read: pushing) for Carson's retirement before Carson had decided to retire. Letterman now says NBC had 2 meetings with him about taking over for Carson. They wanted to make sure he was interested in hosting the Tonight Show before moving forward and at the 2nd meeting he asked them if Johnny was onboard with this and he told them they didn't need to be talking until Carson gave his blessing. And Letterman says that was the last he heard from them or about it until Leno was announced as the new host.

Then fast forward until they start pushing Jay out the door the first time. Then pushing Conan out the door. And now pushing Leno out the door again.

Wow...

I remember the story about Leno hiding in a closet to spy on the NBC execs when they were trying to figure out who would take over after Johnny Carson retired.

Carson supported Letterman as his successor but he didn't get his way. After his retirement he used to write jokes and send them to Letterman to use. Letterman didn't tell anyone that Johnny was doing that until after Johnny's death. Ah here's the video of it, all the jokes are from Johnny. This is from a Johnny Carson tribute show Letterman did. This is part one.