My prediction of the NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament bracket, coupled with sporadic observations about Notre Dame basketball and college basketball in general.
Constructive criticism is welcome, and in fact encouraged. I will attempt to defend my remarks, but I will consider all comments that come my way.

9 comments:

Anonymous
said...

arizona state and oregon both 8 seeds??? those teams will not make the tourney, syracuse and new mexico state, i know they are on the next out list, but after their losses they don't even deserve to be on that list . don't even mention their names.

I just read a pretty persuasive argument against Arizona St, and they will probably drop lower. However, you can't argue too hard against a 22 point victory over a potential 3 seed, another win over another potential three seed, and who has less damaging losses than other bubble teams.

As to Oregon - Again, much of the argument against them consists of their record in the last 10. Look at their schedule in the last 10 - UCLA, WSU twice, Stanford, and USC make up their losses. The teams that make up those losses represent teams in the top 5 seed lines. Why is this a problem? The fact that they had a horrible end of the year schedule should not take away from a team that swept Arizona, beat Stanford, and beat Kansas St. on the road. Granted, the Oakland and Nebraska losses aren't great, but they were both on the road.

As noted in the post below, New Mexico is out in my mind. I simply forgot to take them out of my next four out. Syracuse, on the other hand, has a shot at making the tournament. To quote Drew Barnette at Bracket Express "Many are writing Syracuse off entirely. They do have some things for the committee to look at and consider, though." Some teams (like New Mexico and UAB) bring nothing to the table, good or bad. Syracuse, on the other hand, brings both, which will at least get them talked about by the committee.

i dunno. you make a good point with syracuse, both the good and bad, but with so many close teams this year, even if they get their named mentioned by the committee, but a mention is it, i don't think they stand a chance. as for oregon, even with that strong schedule, first, you gotta win games and second sad for oregon, the committee focuses on end of the season performance over beginning, I think their only hope is the name "pac ten" gets them in. if they were any other conference,they would be done.

I really think that VT deserves to be in, especially after their win over Miami today.

I recognize that 'marquee wins' are in vogue amongst the prognosticators this year, but I feel that this attitude takes away from teams that have a bunch of victories against really solid, but not top-25, teams--like VT does in the ACC. People can talk all they want about VT's "weak" in-conference wins, but we're talking about the #1 conference in the nation here. Virginia beat Arizona on the road, Georgia Tech beat Notre Dame at a neutral court, NC State beat Villanova (N), Seton Hall (A), and Davidson, and so on. Every one of the Hokies' 9 (now 10) conference wins have been hard-earned; there's no Rutgers, Northwesterns, or Oregon States to beat up on here.

Their nonconference schedule wasn't that great, this is true, but that hasn't stopped, say, West Virginia, Stanford, or Connecticut. VT's only bad NC losses were to mid-majors Old Dominion and Richmond, both by three points on the road. With the bubble this weak this year, I just don't see how you (generally, not specifically) can leave Virginia Tech out. I'm enjoying your blog, though--keep up the good work.

Wow a lot of hate for Arkansas.... biased perhaps? You are the only one who doesn't have them in. Oh and they did beat Vanderbilt AGAIN today but i bet that takes them even further down on your list. Good job Bryce you can go back to finger painting your homework for your kindergarten class now.

More comments to respond to. However, I'm happy to see that for the most part, most of these comments are well thought-out, or at the very least calm.

1)With some of the wins today, Syracuse is going to move further away from being in the tournament.Obviously, if you're Oregon, you really need to win more games to feel safe. My point with them is that you shouldn't really dock a team for losing to teams much better than them. However, I do understand the argument against Oregon.

2)I'd like to see VT play UNC in a close game before I put them in. As you said, they don't have any marquee wins (Miami doesn't count, but its nice). I was fully prepared to put them in with a W against Clemson in the last regular season game.However, compare them to Nebraska (who is out following their loss to Kansas). Neither has a top 25 win. Nebraska is 5-3 vs. 25-50, while VT is now 1-1. Nebraska is 3-3 vs. 50-100, while VT is 7-3. Nebraska has 2 losses against teams 100+ (Colorado and Iowa St.), while VT has 3 (Richmond,Penn St., Old Dominion). I would consider these similar profiles, and Nebraska is definitely out. The good news for VT is that, as I said, they have a a chance to work their way in with a victory over UNC tomorrow. Nebraska, with their loss to Kansas, has no such chance.

3, 4, 5) (The Arkansas People)

Yes, I'm aware of the Bracket Project. It was when I stumbled upon it last year and realized that I, too, could be a bracketologist that I started my site.

The main thing that been keeping the Razorbacks out of my projection has been their large "bad loss" number - 4. However, I've actually already starting working on tonight's seed list, and I believe they will be somewhere around an 11 seed.

And since you asked, I will give my selection criteria again (I know its in another comment section somewhere). I have a list with the following information on each team I am considering: 1-25 Wins, 25-50 Record, 50-100 Record, 100+ Losses, Total wins against teams better than 150, and SOS. I also list out all wins against teams in the tourney or on the bubble, and all losses against teams not at least on the bubble.

However, the ranking system I based my records and such off of is the Colton Index, which is a better system for the RPI, and is linked on the right side of my page. If you have some time, listen to the presentation on his website as to why the Colton Index is so much better. Besides, the committee does not see a teams RPI - only their records against those groups.

i'm one of the 'arkansas people'... so your system basically gives the boot to teams taht have some slipups against conference doormats (bama, georgia, both sub-100 rpi/colton), EVEN IF that team has against top 100 rpi/colton/whatever teams (VCU, ORU, Baylor, MissState, Florida, OleMiss, Vanderbilt, Vanderbilt)

that's EIGHT WINS against the top 60 rpi. i know you don't use it as much but i think your system has a flaw in it... by doing simple arithmetic with the 'bad loss' weighed so much, it hurts teams like the hogs that have, yes, again, EIGHT WINS against top 70 rpi, but a few road losses to sub-100 rpis...

you might want to have a formula that says "wait. top 35 rpi, sos? beaten EIGHT top 70 rpi teams? and they aren't projected by 'bryce'? yeah, that should be a red flag and i'll seed them"

just a suggestion... otherwise you get the weird rankings of arizona and arizona state that are off par vs. 50 otherprojections

*********but keep up the good work. no bracket is good if it doesn't tick off SOMEONE's fans :)

About Me

I'm a huge sports nut, despite not being able to do well at any sport. I follow college basketball quite closely, and feel that I know enough to put out my thoughts.
Please note that my seeding philosophy is to act as if the season were ending today. I don't care if the team has wins that should bolster their resume in a few weeks - those games are not sure things, and thus should not be considered while creating a seed list.