Archives for February 2012

2012 Super Bowl Prop Bet Picks & Predictions Patriots vs. Giants

Millions of people will be watching Super Bowl XLVI between the New York Giants and the New England Patriots on Sunday, February 5, and not all of them will be rooting for a side or a total.

That is because it was the Super Bowl that first made prop betting popular, and there are now more props available for the Super Bowl than for any other NFL game. Not all prop lines are sharp either, so here are some of our favorites for Sunday.

Total Rushing Yards – Ahmad Bradshaw ‘under’ 62½ (-115): The Giants have run the ball better lately, but the Patriots have defended the run better as of late also and the bigger mismatch in this game appears to be the New York receivers vs. the New England secondary. Thus look for a pass-heavy game plan at the expense of the running game.

Longest Rush – Brandon Jacobs ‘under’ 10½ (-130): When the Giants do run the ball, Ahmad Bradshaw should be the back getting more opportunities and Jacobs is more of a power back anyway that is not known for his speed. Yes, he had eight games this year where he broke off a double-digit run but New England is allowing only 3.6 yards per rush in the playoffs.

Total Receptions – Hakeem Nicks ‘over’ 5½ (-130): Victor Cruz has been the Giants’ biggest home run threat but Nicks is starting to reclaim his role as the number one option for Eli Manning as he has 23 receptions in the last four games. Manning should throw a ton of passes this game too.

Total Receiving Yards – Wes Welker ‘over’ 82½ (-125): Welker has been very quiet in the last three games with 53, 55 and 51 receiving yards respectively. We think a break-out game is in order here as Welker should be targeted a lot on quick passes to the slot with Tom Brady trying to beat the Giants pressure, and he should also benefit by fewer passes thrown Rob Gronkowski’s way.

Total Receiving Yards – Rob Gronkowski ‘under’ 73½ (-115): Check the wording where you play this as some books require that a player must start to have action and some only require that he play. In any event, you get a refund if “Gronk” cannot play. We imagine he will play in a game like this, but he will be severely limited as he has the same high ankle sprain injury that Ben Roethlisberger had at the end of the year.

Total Rushing Attempts – Aaron Hernandez ‘under’ 2½ (-130): Hernandez has carried the ball on straight hand-offs out of the backfield eight times in two playoff games, but the novelty has now worn off and Hernandez is expected to have an expanded role in the passing game here with Gronkowski limited. With that the case, don’t look for any running plays from Aaron this week.

Player to score first New England touchdown in game – Aaron Hernandez (+400): That expansion of Hernandez’s role should include him becoming the go-to tight end in the red zone, so this prop oozes value.

With so many props offered on this game, there are bound to be quite a few weak numbers. Here are some of our favorite props for Eli Manning in the Big Game.

Total Passing Attempts – Eli Manning ‘over’ 39½: Yes, the Giants’ running game has improved over the past month but so has New England’s rush defense. Besides, the bigger mismatch from the Giants’ perspective in this game is their wide receivers vs. a 31st ranked Patriots’ pass defense that will at times use wide receiver Julian Edelman as a safety in nickel and dime coverages.

Manning has been fantastic in the playoffs and the Giants should have no qualms about asking him to throw the ball at least 40 times, and they will put the game in Manning’s hands in the fourth quarter of what should be a close game. The first two Giants’ wins of these playoffs were by double-digits, but when they were finally involved in a close game with the 49ers, Manning threw the ball 58 times.

Longest Completion – Eli Manning ‘over’ 45½: It seems that the Giants always have at least one big passing play per game, which is not surprising considering that Victor Cruz and Hakeem Nicks can both be game-breakers as the number one option on most teams. The Patriots cannot double team both of them and the New England defense has allowed a lot of big plays this season, so we love the chances of one of them breaking clear for at least one 50-yarder in this contest.

Total TD Passes – Eli Manning ‘over’ 2½ (+150): This play has everything to do with the game plan. The Giants know that the New England defense has defended the run well lately and that they should continue to do so. Thus, we look for Manning to throw the ball at least 40 times here and we like the chances of at least three of those throws going for scores. New York has the faster wide receivers in this game, so the Giants can score from anywhere on the field, and Manning has been throwing more to his tight ends in these playoffs in the red zone with nice success.

Total Rushing Yards – Eli Manning ‘under’ 3½: Neither quarterback in this game is known for his mobility, and since we don’t think that the shaky New England secondary can cover all of the Giants’ receiving weapons downfield, do not expect Manning to take off running due to great coverage anytime soon. Manning rushed for a grand total of 15 (count ‘em) yards in 16 games during the regular season.

Will Eli Manning throw a 4th Quarter TD Pass? Yes (-135): First of all, we expect this to be a close game in the fourth quarter. Secondly, Eli Manning led the NFL in fourth quarter quarterback rating this season. Thirdly, Manning has the NFL’s fourth quarter receiving yardage leader at his disposal in Victor Cruz.

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Tom Brady Super Bowl Prop Bets & Picks 2012

The Super Bowl usually has a very sharp line because it has to with such a humongous amount of money bet on the event, and Super Bowl XLVI between the New York Giants and the New England Patriots is no exception.

The good news though is that the Super Bowl also has more props available for it than any other game of the NFL season, and while the straight game lines are razor-sharp, there are many soft numbers in the props that can be exploited.

Here are some of our favorite props for Tom Brady in 2012 Super Bowl:

Total Completions – Tom Brady ‘over’ 25½: While we do feel that Brady will be under a lot of pressure from the Giants’ defensive line, we also think that will lead to more dump offs and quick throws on safer routes, so while there may not be many home run balls by the Patriots in this game, Brady should still pile up completions with these shorter passes.

We also think that this will be a close game and that it is entirely possible that New England can be trailing in the fourth quarter, so Brady should not stop throwing the ball in the final stanza. Even in his poor game vs. the Ravens in the AFC Championship, Brady still completed 22 passes and we think you can easily add four completions with a “normal” effort.

Longest Completion – Tom Brady ‘under’ 42½: As mentioned, Brady may not have the time in this game to throw the ball way downfield so we think that the only was this play loses is if a receiver breaks a tackle and eats up a ton of yardage after the catch. Sure, that is entirely possible but New England does not have the speediest receiving corps in the world and the Giants’ defense has not missed many tackles during the playoffs.

Total TD Passes – Tom Brady ‘over’ 2½: They may not be bombs, but Brady will throw a lot of passes in this game even closer to the goal line, so we fully expect at least three touchdown passes. Sure his favorite target – Rob Gronkowski – is limited, but that is where having a second big red zone target such as fellow tight end Aaron Hernandez comes in handy, so Brady will probably not miss a beat. Before getting shut out by the Ravens, Brady had 45 touchdown passes in his first 17 games and he threw for six touchdowns vs. Denver in the divisional round.

Total Rushing Attempts – Tom Brady ‘under’ 3 : Brady is a pure pocket passer that is more apt to go down for a sack if under great pressure than to take off running on his surgically repaired knee. Brady did average 2.75 rushing attempts per game during the season, but most of those games weren’t vs. a physical defense like this. Perhaps the biggest threat to this prop would be QB sneaks from inside the one, but look for Brady to pass for touchdowns before getting that close.

Will Tom Brady throw a 4th Quarter TD Pass? Yes (-115): As mentioned, we expect a close game in the fourth quarter, which may be all that is required for this ticket to cash.