Carolina - Injured, bad dresses, and Lori Nichols was probably drunk when she choreographed her programs.
Julia - Home score advantage, she draws a heart on the ice, positive GOE on her spins.
Ashley - Underrotated/two-footed triple-triple, super long/boring slow section, is not portraying "bedroom juliet" very well.
Gracie - sp was a hot mess, did not make the gpf, helicopter arms.
Akiko - high quality programs but doesn't seem to have consistency with her jumps.
Adelina - bombed her long program at the gpf, thinks it's appropriate to wear lingerie in front of the judges.

I still believe in Carolina Kostner and Akiko Suzuki, they have experience, worlds medals (are they likely to be the only other world medalists in Sochi along with Mao and Yu-na?) and performance style. Italy is unlikely to win any other medals in other disciplines so perhaps they'll think it's nice to spread the wealth. The Russian ladies might just be a little green for Olympic medals this time around. Julia is obviously well ahead of Adelina but she only just beat Carolina in Moscow and Carolina is often a late bloomer in the season. Euros will be telling, I suppose.

Uhmm, how do these numbers work? The way I read it out of all the ladies listed only Adelina's chances are worse than Carolina's or conversely out of all the ladies listed only Julia's chances are worse than Ashley's. Is that what you believe about one or the other of these scenarios or am I reading this wrong?

Uhmm, how do these numbers work? The way I read it out of all the ladies listed only Adelina's chances are worse than Carolina's or conversely out of all the ladies listed only Julia's chances are worse than Ashley's. Is that what you believe about one or the other of these scenarios or am I reading this wrong?

They did like two scores out of ten:the first for scoring potential, second for consistency. So Julia has a 8 in scoring potential and 9 in consistency (both out of 10). Adelina has a 9 in scoring potential but just 4/10 for consistency.

At the beginning of the season we were all sure it'd be Yu-Na, Mao and Carolina on the podium...how quickly things can change.

Let's see. I think Carolina's chances are still very high, especially if she returns to Bolero. However, I'm not sure what shape she's in technically which is what will hold her back if she doesn't make it onto the podium. If she's clean or close to clean, I think she'll get the nod over everyone else.

Julia has the most momentum going right now and, judging by her inflated scores at COR, she will likely receive a PCS boost that will make her competitive with the top names. Unless she gets spooked (a la the FS at COR) I think Julia's chances are really good at a 3rd or 4th place finish in Sochi.

Adelina's inconsistency is her issue. She can beat Julia if she's clean and probably with less content b/c Adelina receives good GOE on her jumps as well as her spins, plus when she's clean her PCS jump, she'll be skating on home ice and she's been the flagship for the Russian ladies the last few years. Sadly, Adelina doesn't deliver enough to make her a big threat in this conversation...but if by chance she does have a skate-of-your-life moment in Sochi, I think she'd land on the podium.

Ashley has the increased content and is capable of skating cleanly or mostly clean. I do think she's a threat for the top 5 if she skates well...but the truth is everyone on this list can beat her if they skate better than her which means Ashley has to skate perfectly. She doesn't have much room at all for error and she'll need others to make mistakes in order to land on the podium.

Akiko has the PCS advantage over everyone except Carolina, but her lack of technical content may hold her back even if she skates well...

Of everyone here, Gracie earns the lowest PCS. In regular international competition she is right on par with Julia, but with Julia skating in Russia it's likely her PCS will receive a nice boost especially if she's clean. Gracie is on the low end in terms of PCS but she has the most scoring potential in terms of TES. She has the goods to finish on the podium but, based on her GP showings, I don't see her as a medal threat right now but she could be if she skates lights out. Still, if everyone skated perfectly I think Gracie would be 4th or 5th in this group of competitors, behind Carolina, Adelina, Julia and possibly Ashley (PCS).

I still believe in Carolina Kostner and Akiko Suzuki, they have experience, worlds medals (are they likely to be the only other world medalists in Sochi along with Mao and Yu-na?) and performance style. Italy is unlikely to win any other medals in other disciplines so perhaps they'll think it's nice to spread the wealth. The Russian ladies might just be a little green for Olympic medals this time around. Julia is obviously well ahead of Adelina but she only just beat Carolina in Moscow and Carolina is often a late bloomer in the season. Euros will be telling, I suppose.

But Julia only just beat Carolina in Moscow with a very flawed LP. Imagine how a Julia that hits it out of the park (especially both nights) will score. I think the fact that Carolina did not win any of her GPs says a lot - the judges are ready imo to drop her to 4th or lower and let Julia take bronze.

All of these girls could potentially medal, depending on who skates well, and who doesn't. If one skates badly, she could help another get to the podium. For instnace, if Julia flubs, she leaves the door open for the other girls to move up.

Julia has a great chance to medal, but who knows if she will be able to handle the pressure in front of the home crowd this time around.

Ashley is very calm and collected, and also has a very good chance for bronze. However, she will need to be almost flawless in both programs.

Carolina - I just don't see it happening for her.

Gracie could skate clean and blow all these other ladies out of the water. The high jumps, the fast spins, and the speed of her skating could catapult her up. However, the chances of this happening are small.

Akiko- her LP is my favorite of all the ladies this year. Phantom of the Opera was a great choice for her. I would be thrilled to see her on the podium, if everything goes smoothly for her. But boy did she fall apart at NHK. She's so light on her feet and beautiful. I always feel badly that she is "the other Japanese lady" in the shadows of Mao.

Adelina- Same comments as Gracie. If all goes as planned, then she will be difficult to beat. However, the chances of this are slim.

Originally Posted by MalloryArcher

Italy is unlikely to win any other medals in other disciplines so perhaps they'll think it's nice to spread the wealth.

I don't think the judges will be giving out medals to "spread the wealth". At least I hope not. I don't think that will be part of their criteria when they are contemplating their marks.

1. Julia. Most consistent, and will get a scoring bonus in Russia, it is just true. IF she skates clean, I believe bronze is hers unless Carolina or Adelina can skate clean (i.e. pretty much have the miracle skates of their lives).
2. Ashley. Other than Julia, the only person 'likely' to put forth something resembling a clean program. IF she and Julia are both 100% clean, it will be interesting seeing what happens, but I still give slight advantage to Julia.
3. Carolina. If clean she will beat everyone, could even sneak in a surprise silver. However, chances of that currently look slim.
4. Akiko. Underrated by the judges, but more likely to skate clean than Gracie or Adelina (at least from what we've seen from them so far) and if there is a god, will also have PCS higher than Gracie, at the least.
5. Gracie and Adelina. Virtual tie. Neither can go clean. Gracie can go slightly cleaner in general but also has slightly lower scoring potential in general. I do believe clean Adelina beats clean Gracie for what little that's worth, and I also believe Gracie is 'more likely' to be clean than Adelina. Say, Adelina has a 2% chance, and Gracie has a 5% chance. So yeah. Would not complain if one of them surprised me though.

But Julia only just beat Carolina in Moscow with a very flawed LP. Imagine how a Julia that hits it out of the park (especially both nights) will score. I think the fact that Carolina did not win any of her GPs says a lot - the judges are ready imo to drop her to 4th or lower and let Julia take bronze.

Oh, I gotta disagree with that.

Comparing Julia's marks across her 3 events this season is all the proof needed when it comes to backing up the assertion that her victory over Carolina was debatable, to put it nicely...personally, I thought it was blatant propping/cheating. Carolina was horrible in China but she was better in Russia. Had Julia's PCS been fair or even moderately fair, Carolina would have won gold at COR.

Don't forget the GP season doesn't dictate what will happen at the Olympics. Hardly any of the top finishers in Vancouver had strong GP seasons that year but managed to turn it around and deliver where it counted. I think Carolina's improvement at COR shows she's on the upswing. Her injury is a little worrisome (I think it's back pain issues) but it doesn't seem like it's serious.

I do think if Carolina pulls a COC and skates badly that the judges with give the nod to Julia (assuming she skates well) but if Carolina skates well, I can't see the judges passing her by and over-scoring Julia the way they did at COR, not with Yu-Na and Mao there as well. Scoring is relative to the competition in the field...so Julia scoring within a point of Yu-Na, Carolina and Mao is a little less likely to happen. Julia will still get a boost but it won't as ridiculous as it was at COR.

But Julia only just beat Carolina in Moscow with a very flawed LP. Imagine how a Julia that hits it out of the park (especially both nights) will score. I think the fact that Carolina did not win any of her GPs says a lot - the judges are ready imo to drop her to 4th or lower and let Julia take bronze.

Mao Asada didn't win either of her GP assignments in 2009-2010 and she won Olympic silver. Shizuka Awakawa didn't win either of her GP assignments in 2005-2006 and she won Olympic gold. Not winning any GP events in an Olympic season isn't nearly as damning as you make it out to be.

I know of no woman in the past 20+ years who has won an Olympic medal without winning a Worlds medal of some colour first. I could see Julia making a great debut like Sasha Cohen did in 2002 but I as with Sasha I don't think than will translate to anything higher than 4th.

I know of no woman in the past 20+ years who has won an Olympic medal without winning a Worlds medal of some colour first. I could see Julia making a great debut like Sasha Cohen did in 2002 but I as with Sasha I don't think than will translate to anything higher than 4th.

Under the current rules, Tara would have been ineligible for World's in 1997 and, if everything else were the same (including the judges' marks), still would have won the gold medal. Of course, if you are saying that the judges might hold down a skater because she hadn't medaled at World's, that is another story.