New report: NASA Mars goal is not viable

The National Research Council released a new report today that reviews America’s human spaceflight goals and the direction of NASA’s programs.

As I have been investigating many of these same themes for my Adrift series, I was eager to read the report. After doing so, and speaking with its lead authors former Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels and Cornell University astronomer Jonathan Lunine, here are the report’s principal conclusions:

Human spaceflight is a worthy endeavor.

Mars should be the eventual destination for the human spaceflight program, but there are multiple ways to get there, including visiting an asteroid or the moon first.

With current or even inflation-adjusted budget projections for human spaceflight, there are no viable pathways to Mars

NASA’s stated goal of sending humans to Mars in the 2030s is unrealistic, and reaching Mars is unlikely before 2050. “Policy goals that state shorter time horizons cannot change this reality,” the report states.

With an inflation adjusted budget NASA could reach the surface of Mars in the early 2050s. (National Research Council)

So how did NASA react to the message that its current plans are untenable? With aplomb. In a statement the agency said:

“NASA welcomes the release of this report. After a preliminary review, we are pleased to find the NRC’s assessment and identification of compelling themes for human exploration are consistent with the bipartisan plan agreed to by Congress and the Administration in the NASA Authorization Act of 2010 and that we have been implementing ever since.

“There is a consensus that our horizon goal should be a human mission to Mars and the stepping stone and pathways thrust of the NRC report complements NASA’s ongoing approach. The key elements of that approach include the facilitation of commercial access to low-Earth orbit to sustain fundamental human health research and technology demonstrations aboard the International Space Station (ISS); the development and evolution of the Space Launch System (SLS) and Orion spacecraft to enable human exploration missions in cis-lunar and deep space, including to an asteroid; and the development of game-changing technologies for tomorrow’s missions, all leading the way on a path to Mars.

“NASA has made significant progress on many key elements that will be needed to reach Mars, and we continue on this path in collaboration with industry and other nations. We intend to thoroughly review the report and all of its recommendations.”

Well it’s true the report says Mars is a compelling goal. But it’s equally true the report says the program of record (NASA’s program) won’t get us there.