Mayweather was right about the $40 million; how Top Rank is falling behind

By Hector Gonzalez: About a year and a half ago I wrote an article on BN24 about why Manny Pacquiao deserved a 50% split purse against Floyd Mayweather and why his offer of a guaranteed 40 million dollar offer to Pacquiao was bogus. The article was extremely popular (I’ll provide a link to the article below). I’m now writing a new article with a change of opinion and a new found respect for Mayweather.

Now in hindsight; in Mayweather’s offer I realize not only was he right in saying to Pacquiao that ‘he’s only worth 40 million’, he was also right in saying that ‘he would never see that purse again.’ One of the business traits that is often never talked about but is essential in the business of boxing is the ability to gamble. Good gamblers have the ability to anticipate things before they happen, and in this regard, Mayweather nailed it to a T. The reality of it is that he was able to see things that the general public was not able to see. For example; Mayweather was right in saying that his tea, (Which in reality include Golden Boy Promotions and Al Haymon) are the one’s who are in charge and not Top Rank; Mayweather was also right in saying that Pacquiao needs him and that he doesn’t need Pacquiao.

Having said all this though, from a business standpoint, it is not really about what Pacquiao can and can not do … in reality, it’s about Bob Arum and Top Rank. Here are somethings that Mayweather saw coming that we were not able to see.

1.) Top Rank is going to struggle in defining their target audience.

Bob Arum committed a critical mistake in that he put too much faith in the Pacquiao fan base and neglected the Mexican fan base. Also, besides Timothy Bradley what other prominent American boxer is on the Top Rank stable? Top Rank is more interested in the Asian market, which is not a bad thing. The problem is that Top Rank is struggling to build a large market over there and in terms of talent Zou Shiming is the best it can do.

Take for instance a fighter that not many people know about, “El Gallito” Estrada. Juan Francisco “El Gallito” Estrada is the current WBO and WBA Flyweight Champion. Estrada flew to Macau, China twice to take the belts from the Filipino’s Brian Viloria and then again from Milan Melindo. In both occasions it was obvious that Estrada was being set up as the opponent to make Viloria and Melindo look good. The outcome didn’t go as planned as both Viloria and Melindo lost in front of their crowds. From a business standpoint though, why didn’t the fight take place in Carson California, where there are equal amounts of Melindo fans and Estrada fans, and where Estrada could have had a bigger name for himself? The answer is obvious. It was a miss calculation in Top Ranks part.

This is important to note because Golden Boy and Mayweather have both the American and Mexican markets on lock which essentially means that they have the biggest supporters.

2.) Manny Pacquiao is beatable

Many people saw this coming but not many wanted to believe it. Before Juan Manuel Marquez vs. Pacquiao 2, I remember people saying Pacquiao was going to KO Marquez in three rounds. Before fight number 3, I remember people saying that Pacquiao was going to make a statement and KO Marquez in round 1. Well, we all know what happened there, what happened against Bradley and what happened in Pacquiao vs. Marquez 4. The biggest problem with this scenario is that Pacquiao is Top Rank’s cash cow.

From a business perspective, consider the odds of Pacquiao having a mega-fight with another Top Rank fighter where he could earn $ 40 Million dollars. It’s not going to happen. Having said that, consider the very few options that Pacquiao had for a mega-fight in general; Marquez was probably the best choice from a business stand point and yet also a deceivingly risky option. In my opinion, Mayweather was able to see these things.

3.) HBO vs. Showtime

Again here are things that we the general public don’t see or know, but I’m assuming that it’s fair to say that Mayweather knew or at least had some inclination that he would he and Golden Boy would be moving to Showtime permanently. One the qualities of good business man and especially a gambler is knowing that the cards on your hand are better then your opponents hand. Essentially Mayweather walked away with a guaranteed $200 million dollar contract, Golden Boy came along with him and Showtime is now the biggest Boxing provider, all do to savvy business calculations.

Pacquiao is a great boxer, possibly even has the skills to defeat Mayweather, but from a business perspective he doesn’t have any merit to be demanding anything from Mayweather, not now or before. Furthermore, Pacquiao should have taken the $40 million. What if he would have won? The truth of the matter is that Pacquiao was screwed over but that’s an entirely different article.