Helping America Navigate a New Energy Reality

Oil Production by Country

Of the 42 largest oil producing countries in the world, representing roughly 98% of all oil production, 30 have either plateaued or passed their peaks.

World oil production data varies, depending on the database. Also, the definitions of “oil” differ from source to source: Some count only conventional crude plus lease condensates, while others will include natural gas liquids and unconventional sources such as synthetic oil made from Canadian tar sands, biofuels, and other liquids. Finally, reasonable observers may differ as to whether a given producer has plateaued, or might yet see a second production peak. However, these differences are negligible in the context of the global production outlook.

Here are two views of the world’s top oil producers, with the peak production dates of each country.

A compilation of the production data for the world’s top 50 producers, using data from BP and the Oil and Gas Journal, with peak dates and trend analysis. Compiled by Steve Andrews and Randy Udall. Last updated June 2010 with 2009 data. (PDF)

All OPEC Producers Plus Top 30 Non-OPEC producers

Of all the non-OPEC producers, only 30 have significant production (over 100 thousand barrels per day). This is an analysis of the EIA data for those top 30 non-OPEC producers, plus all 12 OPEC producers, up through 2009. Of these 42 largest oil producing countries in the world, representing roughly 98% of all oil production, 30 have either plateaued or passed their peaks. Compiled June 2010 by Rembrandt Koppelaar (non-OPEC) and Chris Nelder (OPEC).

Millions of barrels per day

Country

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

Peak Year

Top 30 Non-OPEC producers (over 100,000 bpd)

Russia

7.41

8.13

8.80

9.04

9.25

9.44

9.36

9.50

?

United States

5.75

5.68

5.42

5.18

5.10

5.06

4.94

5.31

1970

China

3.39

3.41

3.49

3.61

3.69

3.72

3.80

3.80

?

Mexico

3.18

3.37

3.38

3.33

3.26

3.08

2.79

2.60

2004

Canada

2.17

2.31

2.40

2.37

2.53

2.62

2.59

2.58

?

Norway

3.13

3.04

2.96

2.70

2.49

2.27

2.17

2.07

2001

Brazil

1.46

1.50

1.48

1.63

1.72

1.75

1.81

1.95

?

Others

1.27

1.32

1.63

1.48

1.61

1.70

1.83

1.78

?

Kazakhstan

0.82

0.89

1.01

1.29

1.31

1.36

1.34

1.46

?

United Kingdom

2.29

2.09

1.85

1.65

1.49

1.50

1.38

1.33

1999

Azerbaijan

0.31

0.32

0.31

0.43

0.64

0.84

0.87

1.01

?

Indonesia

1.25

1.16

1.10

1.07

1.02

0.96

0.97

0.95

1994

Oman

0.90

0.82

0.75

0.77

0.74

0.71

0.76

0.81

2001

India

0.67

0.66

0.68

0.67

0.69

0.70

0.69

0.68

plateau

Colombia

0.58

0.54

0.53

0.53

0.53

0.53

0.59

0.67

1999

Argentina

0.80

0.78

0.73

0.70

0.70

0.68

0.66

0.65

1998

Malaysia

0.70

0.74

0.67

0.63

0.61

0.59

0.61

0.58

plateau

Egypt

0.63

0.62

0.59

0.66

0.64

0.64

0.60

0.54

1995

Australia

0.63

0.51

0.47

0.45

0.43

0.47

0.48

0.48

plateau

Sudan

0.24

0.27

0.34

0.35

0.38

0.46

0.48

0.48

plateau

Syria

0.47

0.46

0.41

0.43

0.41

0.38

0.39

0.37

1995

Equatorial Guinea

0.21

0.21

0.37

0.36

0.34

0.35

0.34

0.32

? 2004 ?

Yemen

0.44

0.45

0.42

0.40

0.38

0.32

0.30

0.29

2002

Vietnam

0.34

0.35

0.40

0.38

0.36

0.32

0.28

0.29

2004

Congo Brazzaville

0.25

0.23

0.23

0.23

0.24

0.21

0.23

0.27

1999

Denmark

0.37

0.38

0.39

0.38

0.34

0.31

0.29

0.26

2004

Gabon

0.25

0.24

0.24

0.27

0.24

0.24

0.25

0.24

1996

Brunei

0.16

0.19

0.18

0.18

0.20

0.16

0.14

0.14

2000

Trinidad & Tobago

0.12

0.12

0.15

0.15

0.14

0.12

0.11

0.11

1978

Tunesia

0.08

0.08

0.07

0.07

0.07

0.09

0.10

0.11

1983

Total

40.74

41.38

41.92

41.90

42.03

42.05

41.60

42.02

plateau

All 12 OPEC Producers

Saudi Arabia

7.63

8.78

9.10

9.55

9.15

8.72

9.26

8.25

?

Iran

3.44

3.74

4.00

4.14

4.03

3.91

4.05

4.04

?

UAE

2.08

2.35

2.48

2.54

2.64

2.60

2.68

2.41

?

Iraq

2.02

1.31

2.01

1.88

2.00

2.09

2.38

2.39

?

Kuwait

1.89

2.14

2.38

2.53

2.54

2.46

2.59

2.35

?

Venzuela

2.60

2.34

2.56

2.56

2.51

2.43

2.39

2.24

1997

Nigeria

2.12

2.28

2.33

2.63

2.44

2.35

2.17

2.21

2005

Angola

0.90

0.90

1.05

1.25

1.41

1.74

1.98

1.91

plateau

Algeria

1.31

1.61

1.68

1.80

1.81

1.83

1.82

1.78

2008

Libya

1.32

1.42

1.52

1.63

1.68

1.70

1.74

1.65

plateau

Qatar

0.68

0.72

0.78

0.84

0.85

0.85

0.92

0.93

?

Ecuador

0.39

0.41

0.53

0.53

0.54

0.51

0.50

0.49

2006

Total

26.39

27.98

30.41

31.87

31.59

31.21

32.48

30.64

?

Total, OPEC plus top 30 non-OPEC

72.66

Be a Friend !

“The OPEC drama is behind us (for now) with the cartel and its friends agreeing to a peak supply. But the topic that’s talked about behind the scenes in Viennese cafes is that of ‘peak demand.’ Every pundit has an opinion about when peak demand will happen. Articles, podcasts, and snappy videos mostly debate in what year our 150-year addiction to the product will begin to wane. Some think it’s as early as 2020; the authoritative International Energy Agency conjectures 2040.”

"People do tend to look at the total volumes [of conventional oil] being added in recent years and conclude that we are running out of subsurface potential, I find that unlikely. It's our view that conventional exploration is a perfectly viable growth and renewal option, particularly for those that are good at it. In reality, a lot of exploration's recent decline is nothing more than the fact that it's drilling fewer wells in the downturn."

“It’s about 20C [36 degrees Fahrenheit] warmer than normal over most of the Arctic Ocean, along with cold anomalies of about the same magnitude over north-central Asia…. The extreme behavior of the Arctic in 2016 seems to be in no hurry to quit.”

"I don’t think President Trump will have a big impact on oil demand or output. He’s made statements, but we haven’t seen any thought-out policies. We will have to wait for him to get a team in place and come up with policies."

Mike Wittner, head of oil-market research at Societe Generale SA in New York

“We’ve long been of the opinion that demand will peak before supply. And that peak may be somewhere between 5 and 15 years hence, and it will be driven by efficiency and substitution, more than offsetting the new demand for transport.”

Simon Henry, Chief Financial Officer for Royal Dutch Shell

“The oil demand growth is not coming from cars; it’s from trucks, aviation and the petrochemical industry and we don’t have major alternatives to oil products there. I don’t buy the argument that electric cars alone will cause a peak in oil demand at least in short and medium term.”

"On the supply side, non-OPEC supply growth has reversed into declines due to major cuts in upstream investments and the steepening of decline rates. Without investment, that trend is likely to accelerate with the passage of time to the point that many analysts are now sending warning bells over future supply shortfalls and I am in that camp."

"I don't quite share the same view that others have that we are somehow on the edge of a precipice. I think because we have confirmed the viability of very large resource base in North America ... that serves as enormous spare capacity in the system. It doesn't take mega-project dollars, and it can be brought online much more quickly than a 3-4 year project. Never bet against the creativity and tenacity of our industry.”

"We believe that the Barnett shale offers compelling evidence that technology improvements ultimately cannot overcome geology. We believe the implication is that shale is a scarcer resource than generally considered and thus are more constructive longer-term as the world must seek a more marginal barrel to match future demand growth. That is bullish for longer-term oil price."

"Increasing lateral length hurts all horizontal well performance as frictional losses increase and in the Barnett, optimal well length was determined by balancing reduction of fixed costs with reduced incremental production. Even correcting for lateral length, Barnett wells got worse with time. The E&P narrative is that a revolution in technology of improved completions (more sand, water, clusters, geo-steering, landing, etc.) is pushing down the cost curve. Yet we fail to see it in the most complete data record we have."

"This discovery [Smith Bay; see Briefs below] could be really exciting for the state of Alaska. It has the size and scale to play a meaningful role in sustaining the Alaskan oil business over the next three or four decades."

Caelus CEO Jim Musselman.

"With an oil pipeline that is three-quarters empty, this is good news for the state of Alaska."

"“There are few easy answers, but one thing is clear: the current trajectory of climatic change presents a strategically-significant risk to U.S. national security, and inaction is not a viable option.”

Statement by the Center for Climate and Security, a Washington-based think tank, signed by more than a dozen former senior military and national security officials

The agreement between OPEC and Russia came as a surprise for most. Until the Vienna meeting started, there was much pessimism that a deal would be reached and all indications had been that negotiations were deadlocked over the issue of who would cut by how much. The breakthrough seems Read more...

28 Nov 2016

Oil prices were steady in the first part of the week as the markets waited for news about the OPEC meeting this week. When it was announced on Friday that the Saudis would not attend a preliminary meeting with the Russians and other non-OPEC members, prices dropped about $2 a Read more...

21 Nov 2016

Oil prices climbed on Monday but then held steady for the rest of the week as talk of an OPEC agreement balanced against a stronger dollar and increasing global oil surpluses. At week’s end, New York futures settled at $45.69, about $2 above the recent lows touched the week before Read more...

14 Nov 2016

Last week oil prices suffered their fourth losing week in a row as OPEC continued to argue over a possible production freeze/cut and oil production continued to grow adding to the surplus. At week’s end, futures prices were down to $43.41 in New York and $44.75 in London. The Read more...

7 Nov 2016

Oil prices continued to slide last week with New York futures down by nearly $8 a barrel from the recent highs set in mid-October. The week closed out with NY at $44.07 and London at $45.58. The hype over an OPEC production freeze which has been driving prices up Read more...

The agreement between OPEC and Russia came as a surprise for most. Until the Vienna meeting started, there was much pessimism that a deal would be reached and all indications had been that negotiations were deadlocked over the issue of who would cut by how much. The breakthrough seems to have come when Moscow changed its position from “freeze but no production cut” to agreeing to reduce output by 300,000 b/d from the 11.2 million b/d it reached in November. This change, plus the agreement by Baghdad to cut oil production by 210,000 b/d, was enough to convince the Saudis to cut by 486,000 b/d and the other Gulf Arab states would join in for at total Gulf Arab cut of 786,000 b/d. Libya, Nigeria, and Indonesia were left out of the agreement and Tehran was allowed to increase production by 90,000 b/d to 3.8 million – somewhat short of their 4 million b/d goal. Given the bad relations between Riyadh and Tehran, allowing the Iranians to continue increasing production was the toughest part of the deal for the Saudis to swallow.

Oil prices were steady in the first part of the week as the markets waited for news about the OPEC meeting this week. When it was announced on Friday that the Saudis would not attend a preliminary meeting with the Russians and other non-OPEC members, prices dropped about $2 a barrel to close circa $46 in New York and $47 in London. Although analysts and market traders remain skeptical that any significant agreement will be reached, the week began with a spate of reports from “insiders” that “progress” was being made.

Oil prices climbed on Monday but then held steady for the rest of the week as talk of an OPEC agreement balanced against a stronger dollar and increasing global oil surpluses. At week’s end, New York futures settled at $45.69, about $2 above the recent lows touched the week before last, but $7 below the tops of the speculative bubbles set in June and early October.

Last week oil prices suffered their fourth losing week in a row as OPEC continued to argue over a possible production freeze/cut and oil production continued to grow adding to the surplus. At week’s end, futures prices were down to $43.41 in New York and $44.75 in London. The surprising US election results roiled for a few hours on after the results became known, but prices settled on Wednesday with a small gain and were down on Thursday and Friday on new reports of oil production increases and stockpile builds.

Oil prices continued to slide last week with New York futures down by nearly $8 a barrel from the recent highs set in mid-October. The week closed out with NY at $44.07 and London at $45.58. The hype over an OPEC production freeze which has been driving prices up since last spring is no longer moving prices higher. OPEC and Russia have to come up with a significant production cut in the next three weeks or be faced with lower prices until supply and demand come back into balance from economic forces. The final OPEC meeting to approve a cut is only three weeks away (November 30th) and so far no progress has been made at preliminary meetings that were intended to work out details.