October 25, 2012

Everyone's favorite outspoken critic of everything that is broken, Hugh Hendry, is currently speaking at The Economist's Buttonwood gathering. Watch him contemplate macro and micro issues live in the webcast below. And for desert, everyone's favorite poker player, David Einhorn will follow Hendry.

Hugh Hendry is a fund manager at Eclectica Asset Management. He has become prominent in the United Kingdom for his commentary on the financial crisis. Hendry has been referred to as "the most high-profile Scot in the controversial (Hedge Fund) sector."

October 21, 2012

Hugh Hendry is back once again with a shareholder and investment letter that basically explains what he thinks about World Business. Businesslender has summarized that letter into the following points.

Hendry is skeptical that China will take over US for having the highest GDP in the world. He is fairly confident about the booming energy business in the US and highlights the fact that Natural Gas is very cheap inside the US and that very soon the US could reach a point where it becomes energy independent.

The issue with China's success is that it was based too much on the depreciation of their currency which was brought about by artificial means. It prevented banks and other financial institutes from raising interest rates on saving accounts. People who used to save their money in banks would usually get their estates crushed and that is why more and more people started buying houses which created a housing bubble. The scope of the housing bubble in China has never been this wide. Underground credit has also reached very high values and the trillions of dollars originating from different firms like shipbuilding and house building are ending up in mortgage credit. Hendry believes that when the market collapses, countries as far as Japan might get affected.

China is worried about this situation and this is why it has removed plenty of underground companies from the setup.
Hendry predicts a Weimar kind of situation for people of China. This is because the Chinese government took different measures to ensure that they got a lot of money printing done as compared to their economy side and the financial weakness abroad means that China cannot simply have a better economy on the back of exports alone.
The Chinese market resembles more like a casino as there is no benefit to invest in China. It only benefits the people in the inside.
Japanese Corporate companies falling to credit default swaps are exposed to the Chinese market. Japanese companies have to worry about the different issues that arise with high debt loads. That is why Japan still manages to attract fools who think that the stocks are priced too low.
The situation in Japan is peaceful says Hendry and this peace could rock the entire world in coming years. Japan is not expected to depreciate the value of Yen anytime soon. The central bank of Japan and other authorities will most probably do it after a phase of corporate losses and yen appreciations.
In the end, Hendry closes off by saying that another washout for the market is imminent and that the VIX figures could touch 80 with Treasury yields falling to 2.5% from their current figure of 3.12%. In the coming years, people will be presented with a very good chance of buying some of the valuable risk assets. Hendry isn't too confident about the effectiveness of bonds as compared to VIX but the question is how much the stocks will fall to allow VIX to go up to 80.

Hugh Hendry 2012 Letter and Views

Ultimately, he thinks we'll see one more washout in the market, with 30-year Treasury yields hitting 2.5% (they're currently at 3.125%) and the VIX surging to 80, at which point we'll have a truly 'generational' opportunity to buy risk assets. It is really interesting view because he is not overly bullish on bonds compared to VIX. I wonder how much stocks must go down so the VIX go to 80. Probably his view on the bonds expresses that even though bonds are safe heaven they are at their last stage of a bubble.

Hugh Hendry is a fund manager at Eclectica Asset Management. He has become prominent in the United Kingdom for his commentary on the financial crisis. Hendry has been referred to as "the most high-profile Scot in the controversial (Hedge Fund) sector."

October 20, 2012

Hugh Hendry was present at the Milken Institute Conference that was held recently and Hendry was in fullform as he delivered another one of his usually expressive speeches about the state that Europe is at the moment. The young and shrewd Hendry started off his talk with the statement that "All of Europe has defaulted" and that,

"The political economy in Europe is such that the politicians chose to default on their spending obligations to their citizens in order to honor the pact with their financial creditors and so as time goes on, the politicians are being rejected".

Throughout the time he took stage, he went through the different consequences of Mr. Hollande's election as France's premier, the tough policies adopted by Luxembourg and the fact that Europe is left with only one inspiration and that is fiction since no one can really make out how bad the situation in Europe actually is. He discusses a new method for going forward, talks about the failures of fixed-rate exchanges, why the Weimar tragedy took place, why a union transfer can never happen and what was the reality behind Ayn Rand's story. You will get a very good idea of the situation in Europe when you watch this discussion.

Hendry goes on to tell what the underlying reality is,

"The underlying reality that what the European monetary union is about is not about preventing a third so-called European civil war, it is essentially about making someone (France, Germany or both) a Great Power, a European Hegemon, and a global player."

Hendry takes stage around the halfway mark of the discussion and starts talking about the British point of view about the flawless German mind and why a union transfer cannot take place in Europe. Fifteen minutes later, he is having a go at Germany again as he explains why its housing bubble will never take place. Furthermore, at 52:00 he tells about his expectations for a strong US dollar. At the start of the hour mark, he recollects why he could not finish Ayn Rand's Atlas simply because it was just too much a close description of the world that we inhabit today.

He was quoted as saying,

"We have reached a profound point in economic history where the truth is unpalatable to the political class - and that truth is that the scale and magnitude of the problem is larger than their ability to respond - and it terrifies them."Hugh Hendry is a fund manager at Eclectica Asset Management. He has become prominent in the United Kingdom for his commentary on the financial crisis. Hendry has been referred to as "the most high-profile Scot in the controversial (Hedge Fund) sector."

September 07, 2012

Hugh Hendry is a fund manager at Eclectica Asset Management. He has become prominent in the United Kingdom for his commentary on the financial crisis. Hendry has been referred to as "the most high-profile Scot in the controversial (Hedge Fund) sector."

May 03, 2012

“The thing that I fear is confiscation. Confiscation of my assets, confiscation of my clients’ assets. I fear that this thing could get out of [control]. I think we’re a year away from the French fully nationalizing their banking system…” Hugh Hendry is a fund manager at Eclectica Asset Management. He has become prominent in the United Kingdom for his commentary on the financial crisis. Hendry has been referred to as "the most high-profile Scot in the controversial (Hedge Fund) sector."

May 01, 2012

Hugh Hendry is back with a great investment and shareholder letter which provides a great insight into what he thinks. Here is a brief summary from BusinessInsider.

Hendry
is still very bearish on China. He doesn't think that China will be
supplanting the US economy as the world's #1 in GDP anytime soon, and in
fact he's fairly bullish on the US thanks to the burgeoning energy
business. He might be right as natural gas is extremely cheap and USA
could become energy independent at a certain point in the future.

The
problem in China is that its success was long based on the artificial
depression of the currency, and financial repression that prevented banks
from offering decent interest rates to savers. Anyone with their money in
a bank got crushed, so to get around this financial repression the people
bought houses like crazy. That is why he believes that there is a big
housing bubble.

The
scale of the Chinese housing bubble has been unprecedented, and the scale
of underground credit is enormous. There are trillions of dollars of loans
that originate through firms that are nominally in businesses like
shipbuilding, but which ended up in the mortgage credit game. Once the
market start crashing it will also affect Japan.

China
is so freaked out by all this, it's given death sentences to some of the
underground players in the real estate bubble.

Hendry
sees a Weimar-like situation where Chinese leaders thought they could get
away with fiscal profligacy on the back of strong exports, but the
weakness abroad means it might not happen. He is worried that the Yuan
might also depreciate and even crash given the huge money printing the
Chinese did compared to the size of their economy.

The
Chinese market is a casino, pure and simple. It only benefits insiders.
There's no reason for anyone to invest in it.

The
way Hendry has shorted it, however, is via Credit Default Swaps on
Japanese corporates that are exposed to China. Japanese companies remain
very troubles with debt loads that are way too high. This is why Japan is
a value trap that has taken in suckers for years, thinking that stocks are
very cheap.

In
Japan he sees, what he calls "The Tranquility That Could Rock the
World." Even though he is pessimistic about the Japanese corporations,
he believes that the authorities and the centra bank of Japan will not
devalue the yen and will probably do it after another round of yen
appreciations and corporate losses.

Ultimately,
he thinks we'll see one more washout in the market, with 30-year Treasury
yields hitting 2.5% (they're currently at 3.125%) and the VIX surging to
80, at which point we'll have a truly 'generational' opportunity to buy
risk assets. It is really interesting view because he is not overly
bullish on bonds compared to VIX. I wonder how much stocks must go down so
the VIX go to 80. Probably his view on the bonds expresses that even
though bonds are safe heaven they are at their last stage of a bubble.

Hugh Hendry is a fund manager at Eclectica Asset Management. He has become prominent in the United Kingdom for his commentary on the financial crisis. Hendry has been referred to as "the most high-profile Scot in the controversial (Hedge Fund) sector."

March 14, 2012

Electica Asset Management

Has Been Buying
"In the next 12 months, we'll see further pathological swings in investor sentiment. Despite my reservations, I'm modestly long equity-market futures, some nonindustrial commodities, and some bullish fixed-income positions. We are very bullish agricultural commodities and agricultural equities, and hold a global basket of businesses—with interests ranging from fertilizer to farm equipment."

He has also positioned his fund by betting on Japan’s corporate debt problems by buying protection on steel names and businesses sensitive to the yen. He's also bought credit protection on the shipping industry in Japan such as Mitsui OSK.

Additionally, Hendry mentioned he's got protection on companies levered to the global economy such as Sumitomo and Marubeni.

Hugh Hendry is a fund manager at Eclectica Asset Management. He has become prominent in the United Kingdom for his commentary on the financial crisis. Hendry has been referred to as "the most high-profile Scot in the controversial (Hedge Fund) sector."

Hugh Hendry is a fund manager at Eclectica Asset Management. He has become prominent in the United Kingdom for his commentary on the financial crisis. Hendry has been referred to as "the most high-profile Scot in the controversial (Hedge Fund) sector."

March 06, 2012

In the next 12 months, we'll see further pathological swings in investor sentiment. Despite my reservations, I'm modestly long equity-market futures, some non-industrial commodities, and some bullish fixed-income positions. We are very bullish agricultural commodities and agricultural equities, and hold a global basket of businesses—with interests ranging from fertilizer to farm equipment.

Hugh Hendry is a fund manager at Eclectica Asset Management. He has become prominent in the United Kingdom for his commentary on the financial crisis. Hendry has been referred to as "the most high-profile Scot in the controversial (Hedge Fund) sector."

March 05, 2012

As for Greece, the end game will be the Greeks rejecting austerity. The euro is nothing but a gold standard lacking flexibility, and the entire onus is on private citizens to take the pain. Eventually, a Greek politician will say, ‘Vote for me, and I’ll get us out of this system.’

Hugh Hendry is a fund manager at Eclectica Asset Management. He has become prominent in the United Kingdom for his commentary on the financial crisis. Hendry has been referred to as "the most high-profile Scot in the controversial (Hedge Fund) sector."

Hugh Hendry of Eclectica Asset Management: Clearly, they can and do go bust. I’m buying the CDS on investment-grade Japanese corporations because of the overpricing anomaly. Japan had a bust 20 years ago, and yet today the banking stocks, relative to (Japanese bourse) Topix, are making fresh lows.
If I’m a Japanese bank and I lend money to a new business, I get 1% on 10-year paper. Then the bank gets a call from me, and I’m willing to pay 50 basis points for five-year protection on this same company. So suddenly, the yield has gone from 1% to 1½%. Compare that to five-year Japanese government bonds, yielding 30 basis points. The bank thinks: This is a great trade! Japanese steel companies are investment-grade and won’t go bankrupt. So, the bank gets this huge yen yield, and thinks it is not taking any risk. You’d better believe it will sell way too much of that good thing.
One of my partners told me about Japanese steel: Here is a country with no energy, no iron ore or coal, yet it’s the largest exporter of steel in the world, exports half its output. To put that in context, China manufactures 700 million tons of steel and exports perhaps 30 million. Japan produces 110 million tons and exports 40 million. As long as Asia is strong, they are fine. But if Asia hiccups or reverses, plant-utilization rates go from very high to very, very low very quickly.
Then we discovered that Warren Buffett owned shares of South Korea’s Posco [5490.S. Korea], and that Korea was the biggest importer of Japanese steel, but Posco and Hyundai [5380.S. Korea] are building huge, integrated steel plants. They have a surplus of steel capacity and—guess what?—they’re exporting to Japan, because the yen is so strong.
Initially, I wanted to buy a three-year, out-of-the-money put on Nippon Steel. My broker said, “I’ve been in a 20-year bear market; my boss will kill me.” Then I thought, being long credit protection is being long volatility. I redialed his credit counterpart. I said: “I’m thinking of purchasing up to a billion yen of five-year credit-default swaps in Nippon Steel.” The first thing he said was, “Would you consider 10 billion?” So one part of the bank is banned from selling volatility, and the other part is having a party. I bought reams of the stuff.

Hugh Hendry is a fund manager at Eclectica Asset Management. He has become prominent in the United Kingdom for his commentary on the financial crisis. Hendry has been referred to as "the most high-profile Scot in the controversial (Hedge Fund) sector."

March 03, 2012

Hugh Hendry: The world is very fearful of hyperinflation. Pension schemes have a preponderance of real assets, from forestry to gold to TIPS [Treasury inflation-protected securities], because they are very fearful. The road to hyperinflation is via hyperdeflation. That is why it’s proving so difficult for hedge funds to make money. How does the rational mind that anticipates hyperinflation own 10-year government Treasuries yielding less than 2%? It can’t. That’s why people are struggling. To lay the seeds of hyperinflation, you need really, really bad things to happen. I thought the U.S. housing market having a massive crash would be hyperdeflationary. But then my Chinese friends pumped $1 trillion of credit into their $5 trillion economy, and created a global recovery, which has just come to an end. I’m speculating that hyperdeflation happens before hyperinflation. What’s the worst that could happen? But the sum of all my fears would be China having a real hard landing of minus 5% or minus 10% GDP growth. If we had that—and Europe—the Fed would be printing $20 trillion, and I would have gold at $5,000. You can have a modest amount of gold, but you can’t have all your assets in real assets, in case we get that hyperdeflation event.

Hugh Hendry is a fund manager at

Eclectica Asset Management

. He has become prominent in the United Kingdom for his commentary on the financial crisis. Hendry has been referred to as "the most high-profile Scot in the controversial (Hedge Fund) sector."

March 02, 2012

Hendry: I should add something else that is contentious—U.S. quantitative easing [that eventually sent more money flowing to China], promoted because America had two sharp recessions and pursued orthodox policies, and had very little to show in the creation of jobs.

The policy was very successful. China now has inflation. Minimum wages have grown 20% annually for the past three years. This has encouraged the Chinese to tighten monetary policy. When you have bubbles and you tighten, bad things happen. China’s stock and property markets are weak, a side-effect of quantitative easing. We may now have the pricking of the Chinese bubble. A year or two down the line, it could have enormous repercussions for the global economy.

It seems that Hugh Hendry same as Jim Rogers, believe that the collapse might come in 2013-2014, and not in 2012.

Hugh Hendry is a fund manager at Eclectica Asset Management. He has become prominent in the United Kingdom for his commentary on the financial crisis. Hendry has been referred to as "the most high-profile Scot in the controversial (Hedge Fund) sector."

March 01, 2012

Hendry: In 2009, I made a YouTube video of the empty skyscrapers in Wuhan, China. Goldman Sachs and others articulate a very reasonable and compelling argument of being invested in China. With the evidence of my own eyes, I concluded that China had a very robust system of creating gross-domestic-product growth, but forsaking the creation of wealth.

When America was having its China moment in the 19th century, it occurred against the backdrop of a gold standard, a hard-money regime, with a public sector that was minuscule versus the overall size of the economy. As an entrepreneur, if your project failed to generate a sustainable level of cash flow, you failed.

If you talk about a hard landing in China, you talk about GDP growth of 5%, not minus 5% or minus 15%. The Chinese government prints money. It can build superfast railways and overbuild airports, because the rest of the economy can subsidize it. China’s swollen public sector is directing asset allocation, rather than pursuing profit maximization. They see [their system] as a success. But it creates a bubble, which can prove quite damaging.

Hugh Hendry is a fund manager at Eclectica Asset Management. He has become prominent in the United Kingdom for his commentary on the financial crisis. Hendry has been referred to as "the most high-profile Scot in the controversial (Hedge Fund) sector."

February 23, 2012

He believes in coming risk-off, and that there will be a deficit of yens due to carry unwind. He shares that the catalyst will probably be Italian bond market collapse or a China crash along with Asian recession. He bought protection on companies with high sensitivity to the yen.Hugh Hendry is a fund manager at Eclectica Asset Management. He has become prominent in the United Kingdom for his commentary on the financial crisis. Hendry has been referred to as "the most high-profile Scot in the controversial (Hedge Fund) sector."

February 20, 2012

I’ll just say this straight out: you really need to know who Hugh Hendry is and, at the very least, consider what he’s saying. He has a brash style which maybe turns some people off, but don’t let that cause you to dismiss what he is saying. His message is important. Really important. The short story is that the global economy is nowhere near being out of the woods, and there are a (huge) number of unresolved issues that all investors should be following. Don’t let being a value investor cause you to stick your head in the sand and ignore the greater world. Micro-fundamentals are important and should be the basis for any investment, but ignoring these risks completely makes you an idiot.

This weekend, Barron’s ran agreat interviewwith Hendry in which he discusses China, Japan and hyperdeflation. Here’s a snippet:

The London-based Eclectica Asset Management saw a 12% return last year in its flagship Eclectica hedge fund, and an eye-popping 46% gain in a new fund that buys credit-default protection on Japanese corporations. Much owes to the relentless logic and cheeky inventiveness of Hugh Hendry, chief investment officer. The Glasgow-born Hendry tells Barron’s why he expects a hard landing in China, and why hyperdeflation will precede hyperinflation.

Barron’s:What makes a great macro fund manager?

Hendry: First and foremost, an ability to establish a contentious premise outside the existing belief system, and have it go on and be adopted by the rest of the financial community. My great hero is [Caxton Associates' founder] Bruce Kovner, who was able to imagine the dollar falling to 100 yen—when the rate was 200. I am an existentialist. To my mind, the three most important principles when it comes to investing are Albert Camus’ principles of ethics: God is dead, life is absurd and there are no rules. Of course, that’s a doctrine of promoting the individual. You own your own decisions. As CIO of Eclectica, with $700 million [under management], I have no engagement with the sell side.

Barron’s:Where do you find yourself outside the existing belief system today?Hendry:In 2009, I made a YouTube video of the empty skyscrapers in Wuhan, China. Goldman Sachs and others articulate a very reasonable and compelling argument of being invested in China. With the evidence of my own eyes, I concluded that China had a very robust system of creating gross-domestic-product growth, but forsaking the creation of wealth.

When America was having its China moment in the 19th century, it occurred against the backdrop of a gold standard, a hard-money regime, with a public sector that was minuscule versus the overall size of the economy. As an entrepreneur, if your project failed to generate a sustainable level of cash flow, you failed.China’s great opportunity is taking place within the U.S. fiat system, and so the consequences are perhaps less stark than in 19th-century America, which had stops and starts and many depressions, though with an overarching prosperity. China has not had that volatility.If you talk about a hard landing in China, you talk about GDP growth of 5%, not minus 5% or minus 15%. The Chinese government prints money. It can build superfast railways and overbuild airports, because the rest of the economy can subsidize it. China’s swollen public sector is directing asset allocation, rather than pursuing profit maximization. They see [their system] as a success. But it creates a bubble, which can prove quite damaging.

Hugh Hendry is a fund manager at Eclectica Asset Management. He has become prominent in the United Kingdom for his commentary on the financial crisis. Hendry has been referred to as "the most high-profile Scot in the controversial (Hedge Fund) sector."

February 14, 2012

Of the many places Hendry doesn’t want to be long, China is near or at the top of the list. He thinks China could be subject to a 25% decline in GDP over the next five years.

How is that possible?

He draws an interesting analogy:“UK GDP fell 8% in the Great Depression, while US GDP fell 25%.” Inferring, of course, that today’s China is the upstart US to our current “UK peak empire” role. In what he calls “the great unwinding”, the strongest economies in the world are also – ironically – the most vulnerable. But that doesn’t mean he’s bullish on the developed world, either. He has an aversion to just about everything. “It’s checkmate. Everywhere it’s checkmate.”

He believes Italy is insolvent, citing their huge borrowing binge over the last ten years that has only achieved 0% growth. He loves Japan – as a culture and place to visit – but is especially bearish on several Japanese sectors. He’s long credit default swaps with respect to cyclical, leveraged Japanese businesses. He’s also bearish on Japanese utilities, which have issued tremendous amounts of debt since the Fukushima disaster. Hendry’s favorite sacred belief – which he’s betting against, of course – is the fact that no one believes the ECB will ever cut rates below 1%. He’s made bets that he says will deliver a 40-to-1 return if the ECB cuts rates below 1% next year.

Source: CFA Society of Sacramento. This post originally appeared at ZeroHedge.

Hugh Hendryis a fund managerat Eclectica Asset Management. He has become prominent in the United Kingdom for his commentary on the financial crisis. Hendry has been referred to as "the most high-profile Scot in the controversial (Hedge Fund) sector."

February 13, 2012

The high CPI numbers being reported in the UK and other Western nations are “meaningless”, Hendry says, because in today’s economic environment, it does
not translate into wage growth. (In the 1970’s, it did). Because wage labor is
approximately 70% of total business costs, he does not see meaningful inflation
without wage inflation. He’s also down on gold because it is not a contrarian investment today as it was 10 years ago (he had a nice year in 2003 buying
gold and gold stocks when nobody wanted them).

The widespread belief among the greatest financial minds today that hyperinflation
is inevitable greatly disturbs him. In the Western world, he sees hyperinflation as a political choice – one that requires the will of the populous. (Forget Zimbabwe,
he says – that might as well be Timbuktu. It’s not our culture.)

He sees society’s current mood as “dark” (Tea Party, Occupy Wall Street, and social unrest in Europe to name a few), and believes this makes bailouts and money printing very hard. The only environment that makes hyperinflation possible is “the mother of
all depressions” he says. In keeping with his anticipation of paradox, he quipped that
if you believe in hyperinflation, then you should be levered up long on 10 and 30-year Treasuries…because in order for hyperinflation to become a political reality, deflation must arrive first.

Source: CFA Society of Sacramento. This post originally appeared at ZeroHedge.

February 12, 2012

You know the old drill – China and Asia produce, the US consumes. They cycle their greenbacks back over this way, finance our debt, we buy more of their stuff, and the beat goes on. This model officially stopped with the launch of QE2, Hendry says, as the US officially started rejecting the globalization that had made the global economy hum (perhaps largely at the expense of US employment and manufacturing).
With QE2, dollars were printed and exported – along with inflation – to Asia.
This led to the countries in Asia – and Europe, too – raising rates to combat inflation.
The result, he says, is that global economic growth has essentially ground to a halt.

So what’s next? A crash, of course.

Europe’s Debt Spiraling Out of Control.

Hendry pulled up a chart of US and Europe non-financial debt to GDP, illustrating that Europe’s debt has been spiraling out of control ever since the formation of the European Union. Participant nations, he puts it, received initial “ALT-A” rates – nice low German interest rates – for signing on. But the fixed exchange rate that the euro imposes on the peripheral nations started the time bomb ticking. Hendry, in fact, is very down on fixed exchange rates, and believes the euro and the dollar/renminbi peg are at the heart of global economic insecurity today.

He believes the recent referendum in Greece could be a very significant event,
likening it to a 1931 mutiny in England that forced the Brits off the gold standard.
He things the Greek referendum could be the trigger to disengage from their fixed exchanged rate (and cited everyone’s lack of anticipation for the referendum as a classic example of irony in finance).

Source: CFA Society of Sacramento. This post originally appeared at ZeroHedge.

January 12, 2012

The problem is greater than the ability of the politicians to respond.

There is no policy prescription that they can offer that will redeem the situation. The redemption will come through the citizens of Greece and elsewhere throwing the politicians out and rejecting the European ideal. Greece should default and leave the Euro. "Greece needs a real exchange rate"

Hendry says the UK is in depression - not recession - and it will take years to get back to where we were in 2006 and 2007.

Hendry is no longer the CEO of Eclectica. He's the CIO, and his CEO has banned him from media.

Disclaimer. This blog is not owned, managed or written by Hugh Hendry and is no way affiliated with him. The blog only includes comments and information that is already available in other online public sources. For any questions about the material in this blog, you can contact us at: invnewsfeed@gmail.com

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fund manager at Eclectica Asset Management. He has 18 years' industry experience with Baillie Gifford, CSAM and Odey Asset Management. At Odey he managed a range of funds from $1.0bn of long only European mandates, including the award winning Odey Continental European Fund, to the The Eclectica Fund.

Hugh graduated from Strathclyde University in 1990. He has become prominent in the United Kingdom for his commentary on the financial crisis.Hendry has been referred to as

One of legendary and best investors of Switzerland, Felix Zulauf of Zulauf
Asset Management gave his views on the market in an interview for the
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6 years ago

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