LONG TERM OUTLOOK: TRENDING DOWN

The Packers are competing to make the playoffs but their chances are on a downward trend. In our pre-season forecast they had a 62.4% chance of making the playoffs. On 10/1 they had a 57.5% chance before dropping to 17.2% on 11/5. From the start of the season to now their chances are down significantly to 29.6%. They have a 7.8% chance of winning their division. Oddsmakers have them at 13/4 to win the division which has an implied probability of 23.5%. Based on the odds, they have a 7.7% chance of winning the NFC (12/1) and a 3.8% chance of winning it all (25/1).

Strength of Schedule Getting Much Easier

Remaining Opponents' Win Percentage Rest of Season: 42% #4 Easiest

Season-to-Date Opponents' Win Percentage: 50% #13 Toughest

Packers' Season Forecast Changes

SEASON-TO-DATE GRADE: D

Early in the season, we include last season in the analysis. At 4-5-1 the Packers are behind their money line projected win total of 5.6 wins. They have just one bad loss where they were favored or got blown out as slight underdogs) vs 0 good wins (upset wins, or blowout victory in what was expected to be a close game). They have exceeded expectations in home games. Their 4-0 home record is +30% better than their expected win percentage. Over the past 3 weeks they have played poorly going 1-3, 25%. The Packers should be a slightly above average team based on simulations where they won 52.7% of the simulations played vs every other team as if they were playing on a neutral court with players available in the playoffs (#12 in the league). They have moved up from #17 in the league back on 11/6.

They are an above average scoring team based on points per game, which make sense given their strong yards per play rank. They are a below average scoring defense based on points per game and a below average defensive TD rate.

TEAM OFFENSE (League Rank):

TEAM DEFENSE:

NEXT 4 GAME OUTLOOK: MIX

The Packers next 4 game forecast looks like a mix of 'clouds and sun'. They have 2 games where they are favored by >55% of the simulations, and just 1 game where they are a clear underdog. They win four games in 9.2% of simulations.

FANTASY TEAM LEADERS

Based on rest of season projections, these are the 6 most valuable fantasy players based on their projected position rank (QB, RB, WR, TE, K). Overvalued players are rated higher by the market based on ownership% and vice versa.