SCOTTSDALE, Ariz. – Let’s play detective. Let’s take what we know right now about teams’ intentions this offseason and try to figure out which are most likely to play for Yoenis Cespedes.

We can eliminate the Rays, Indians, Royals, Tigers, Twins, A’s, Pirates, Reds, Brewers, Padres, Rockies and Diamondbacks because of either payroll constraints or a rebuilding philosophy. That leaves 18 teams.

The Yankees’ lone big free-agent focus currently is a closer, either Aroldis Chapman or Kenley Jansen. If the Dodgers are going to invest big in a bat, they are far more likely to retain Justin Turner than to add another outfielder. That is 16 left. The Red Sox are more focused on a DH type such as Edwin Encarnacion or Carlos Beltran. The Cubs already have too many outfielders. Down to 14.

I have seen the Marlins mentioned, but they have limited resources, which all have to be focused on starting pitching. The Angels added Cameron Maybin to join Mike Trout and Kole Calhoun, and the Braves added Matt Kemp during last season to join Ender Inciarte and Nick Markakis, plus both teams are looking heavily at starting pitching. We have 11 left.

The Mets still are the most obvious landing place. They know he works in the middle of the lineup, and he has liked being a Met. Are the Mets comfortable going to four years at $100 million, which is probably in the range of what this will take? If not, what is the competition? Here are thoughts on the 10 not eliminated in our detective game:

1. Nationals: They were in on Cespedes last year, at least peripherally, and look how well it worked out for them, grabbing a Mets hitter named Daniel Murphy. But if Trea Turner stays in center field with Bryce Harper and Jayson Werth on the wings, there is not much room for Cespedes. If Turner goes to shortstop, could Harper and Cespedes share center for a season with Cespedes moving to left in 2018 after Werth’s contract expires?

2. Phillies: The only players to whom they owe money in 2017 are Matt Harrison and Pat Neshek. They have tons to spend, but indications are they don’t want to do big stuff yet. If they do, Cespedes would be a homer machine in their park.

Randal GrichukAP

3. Cardinals: They hit a ton of homers last year, so they don’t need Cespedes for that. They are determined to get better defensively, and Cespedes slipped in that area last year. Their focus is on finding a quality glove in center and moving Randal Grichuk to a corner.

4. Giants: They badly want to add power either in left field or center. But they also need to address their woeful late-game relief. They probably invest big in just one of these areas, or perhaps go for a combination such as Mark Melancon and Ian Desmond.

5. Blue Jays: Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion are free agents, so they might be losing power. However, if they are going to spend big, they know and like Encarnacion. If he leaves, Toronto probably would look for lefty power because those staying – Josh Donaldson, Russell Martin and Troy Tulowitzki – are all righties.

6. Orioles: If they want a big bat, they probably just try to retain free agent Mark Trumbo for fewer dollars, especially because they are so fixated on upgrading their rotation.

Chris SaleAP

7. White Sox: They still have not indicated if they are sellers (Chris Sale, Jose Quintana, Todd Frazier, etc.) this offseason or if they are going for it in 2017. This is a franchise that has invested quite often in Cuban players. But they simply do not look positioned to make a $25 million-ish annual play on someone after big outlays the past two offseasons that produced losing records.

8. Rangers: They likely are losing Beltran, Desmond and Mitch Moreland after having Prince Fielder retire during last season. But they also are concentrating on center field and the rotation.

9. Mariners: They have an opening in left. But they already have a strong middle of the order with Robinson Cano, Nelson Cruz and Kyle Seager, and in his year on the job, GM Jerry Dipoto has focused more on spreading around his available payroll to deepen the roster rather than make one big splash.

10. Astros: They also have an opening in left field (though some of those at-bats could end up going to Yulieski Gurriel). But with Gurriel, Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman, Carlos Correa, Evan Gattis and George Springer all righty, Houston is prioritizing a lefty bat and a leader (not Cespedes’ strong suit). Plus, the Astros are among the most all-in on finding rotation help.