Cristina Odone is a journalist, novelist and broadcaster specialising in the relationship between society, families and faith. She is the director of communications for the Legatum institute and is a former editor of the Catholic Herald and deputy editor of the New Statesman. She is married and lives in west London with her husband, two stepsons and a daughter. Her new ebook No God Zone is now available on Kindle.

When gays can marry, the Cameroons will finally take married couples seriously and give them a tax break

The Government has postponed the tax break for married couples yet again. It's been on/off the agenda for so long, I don't think anyone is surprised. Grassroots Tories have given up thinking that their priorities, like this one, and their values – the family – matter to this group of new Tories. Religious freedom, they know, is not valued in 2013 Conservative thinking. The New Tories may have been raised in the Shires but they aspire to a "Hill" mentality: Notting Hill, or Primrose Hill, it doesn't matter, so long as trendy liberals live there.

But I see light at the end of the tunnel. There is one lobby that the Government does listen to: gays. The gay marriage law is being pushed through over cries of protest and dismay, and threats of the party splitting. Heedless of these reactions, Cameron and Co are determined to see through a pledge they never made. They call it detoxifying the "nasty party" brand; in fact, it is all about the Cameroons wanting to be seen as modern and metropolitan, just like their neighbours in Notting Hill.

Tories know that, no matter what they believe, gay marriage will soon be legal. They can take comfort from one outcome of this legislation: as soon gay marriage is allowed, married gays will demand a tax break. Then, the Government will move: it would never dare ignore demands from this group. It is only when gays can marry that the New Tories will take marriage seriously.