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August may be a quiet month in domestic politics, but it’s merely the precursor to the new Parliamentary year to come – by the end of which there will have to be a general election, and (it seems almost certain) a change of government. What better time, then, to ponder what we think awaits the Lib Dems at that election?

Our poll ratings seem steady enough, consistently in the 18-20% range – down on the equivalent stage in the 2001-05 Parliament, when the party was boosted by its lone opposition to the Iraq war – but pretty strong compared to most other Parliaments. The unknowable next time round is how far the party can defend its seats aganst Tory challenges (and pick up a couple of surprise gains) while gaining ground on Labour.

Which brings us neatly to our new poll question: What do you think the next general election holds in store for the Lib Dems?

Here are your options:

An increase in % vote and an increase in seats;

An increase in % vote but a decrease in seats;

A decrease in % vote but an increase in seats;

A decrease in % vote and a decrease in seats.

The choice is yours. Feel free to show your working in the comments thread below.