leadpipe wrote:I don't deal is pessimism. I deal in facts. It is a FACT. A mathematical FACT that jumping 3 or 4 teams is a GREAT DEAL harder than jumping one.

Sure, all things being equal. But in this case they're not. Those 3 or 4 teams have to play 9 games or so against the Red Sox (58-39) while the Tribe doesn't play any. They also have to play a lot of games against each other while the Tribe plays much weaker opponents.

From this point on the Tribe has 29 games against the Royals, Twins, and White Sox. So far the Tribe's record against those teams is 19-9. So is it possible they could repeat and go 19-10 or 20-9 against those same teams in the second half? Especially since those teams may be conducting fire sales and auditioning prospects? Can anybody think of a reason why that's not realistic?

leadpipe wrote:Just got back from Disneyland. Second GD biggest amusement park attendance wise in the country. Despite this fact, I was amazed at how many humps drop dead in their tracks, in the middle of Main Street, to look at their texts. As if there wasn't another GD person on the planet.

It's amazing. Same shit in Vegas when I was there a couple weeks ago. Crowded, narrow sidewalks, and people taking pictures with their fucking iPads.

Sorry off topic but I had to chuckle at this as my first reaction is still to think "what the hell are you doing"?

mattvan1 wrote:Allow me, as a public service, to suggest you consider a couple of "key words and phrases" which might improve the overall level of discourse with your fellow sports fans, lest your participation in this forum drive posters away as has happened elsewhere.

"I see your point"

"I never looked at it in that way before"

"We can agree to disagree"

"I guess we'll just have to wait and see what happens"

"This is a very simple game. You throw the ball, you catch the ball, you hit the ball. Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose, sometimes it rains. Think about that for a while."

mattvan, maybe you missed the part where I said,

I suppose Lead is right in that mathematically coming out on top against three contenders is harder than against one.

That's my way of saying, "I see your point."

I just don't think it's as simple as he paints it. I acknowledged that he would be right if all four contending teams had the same difficulty of schedule. I'm not burying my head in the sand and ignoring his argument. I simply believe that if four teams have similar W-L records 60% of the way through the season, but one team has a much easier schedule than the others the rest of the way, that team has the advantage. Pipe does not agree with that statement, sticking to his contention that overtaking three teams is ALWAYS much, much harder than overtaking one, and nothing else matters. At this point I suppose we should just agree to disagree.

You suggested I say, "I guess we'll just have to wait and see what happens." If you check my post on 7/16 at 9:01 a.m. you'll see that I said,

Maybe the Tribe will not continue beating crappy teams, and maybe the O's or Yanks or Rays will suddenly start winning more than 50-55% of their games against similar quality teams. In that case the pessimism will prove to be justified. We'll see.

I acknowledged that leadpipe may prove to be right in the end, and I said "We'll see". Maybe if you read my posts a little more carefully you wouldn't be so quick in instruct me.

As for the Bull Durham quote, that was very, very helpful to this discussion. Thanks a lot.

I stopped reading your lengthly posts a long time ago, probably during the +/- basketball stat days.

And the Bull Durham quote added far more to this discussion than your thousand lines of drivel.

I don't need to be patient, they're going to be shit forever. - CDT, discussing my favorite NFL team

Why wouldn't I? Afraid to be wrong debating sports on a message board. Who cares?

But really 7. I'm not going to say "I see your point," when I don't.

Passing 3 or 4 teams IS inherently more difficult than passing one - for a myriad of reasons that a perceived soft schedule doesn't compensate for.

And you're clearly smarter than me, what's your take?

You're right, sometimes you are wrong. That still doesn't change my statement about your propensity to ignore the other side of the argument just to be a stubborn ass.

My take is that your pissing contest matters very little to me, but I couldn't help but point out your laughable hypocrisy. I really only care about the team finding a way to scratch out 90 wins and hoping things break right from there.

I stopped reading your lengthly posts a long time ago, probably during the +/- basketball stat days.

And the Bull Durham quote added far more to this discussion than your thousand lines of drivel.

Thanks for being honest, matt. You admit you didn't read my posts, but that didn't stop you from criticizing them and lecturing me, even to the point of telling me specifically what I should say. Had you bothered to read my posts you would see that I already acknowledged that leadpipe has a viewpoint (yes, three is a bigger number than one), that he could end up being right, and that we'll just have to wait and see.

And you didn't read them because you made up your mind years ago that I only post "drivel". Turns out I posted some of the very things you said I should post.

You criticize posts without having read them. But at least you admit it, so I'll give you that.

I stopped reading your lengthly posts a long time ago, probably during the +/- basketball stat days.

And the Bull Durham quote added far more to this discussion than your thousand lines of drivel.

Thanks for being honest, matt. You admit you didn't read my posts, but that didn't stop you from criticizing them and lecturing me, even to the point of telling me specifically what I should say. Had you bothered to read my posts you would see that I already acknowledged that leadpipe has a viewpoint (yes, three is a bigger number than one), that he could end up being right, and that we'll just have to wait and see.

And you didn't read them because you made up your mind years ago that I only post "drivel". Turns out I posted some of the very things you said I should post.

You criticize posts without having read them. But at least you admit it, so I'll give you that.

Since you like movie quotes, here's one for you.

"Next time you hang a man, you better look at him."

Did not mean for this to get so contentious. My attempt at humorous constructive criticism obviously failed miserably. Post what you want where and when you want. I'm not a mod. Peace Out.

I don't need to be patient, they're going to be shit forever. - CDT, discussing my favorite NFL team

Good lord, we're not saying two East teams will win 100 games, just that the cut line for the wild card should be around 92 wins and that will be tough for the Tribe even on their schedule. Say you're right and the Yankees, Red Sox, Rays, and Orioles all go .500 against one another. Then, say that they maintain their current winning percentage in the rest of their games (And we already teased out the harder games, so as Mr. Hand would say, "rest assured, that was a kind estimate.") And the possibility of the Red Sox beating all of their asses is probably more than cancelled out by the possibility of one or more of the other three getting hot. Here is my back of the napkin calculation for their win totals.

Sox- 94Rays- 91O's- 88Yanks- 86

So if you're saying that you think the Tribe have a good shot at 92 or more wins, God bless you, I just disagree. But if you think they're sneaking into a Wild Card spot with 87-88 wins, you're nuts. The only way that happens is if Texas or Oakland completely collapses.

"Well then I guess there's only one thing left to do...win the whole, f***in', thing."- Jake Taylor

KP74, thanks for at least acknowledging that there may be some connection between strength of schedule and number of wins. I don't know why this is so difficult to grasp for some posters.

I think it's possible that Tampa could go 36-30 in the second half and finish with 91 wins, as you said. In that case the Tribe would have to go 40-27 which would be difficult but not impossible.

But I really question whether TB will win 36 games. Looking at their first half schedule, here's their record against the weakest teams they played:

Houston 5-2Minnesota 4-0White Sox 5-2Miami 4-0San Diego 3-0

That's a total of 21-4, or 17 games over .500. They're 3 games under .500 against the rest of the league.

In the second half the only one of those teams they play is Minnesota, and only 3 games.

The Rays have 9 games against both Toronto and the Yankees, and they went 5-5 against both in the first half. They have 7 games against the Red Sox (3-9) in the first half. The only bad teams on their schedule are Minny (3 games), Seattle (7), and San Francisco (2). That's 12 of 66 games against weak teams.

The other thing is they had a top-heavy home schedule in the first half with 53 games at home (34-19) against 43 on the road (21-22). So their second half schedule is long on road games and short on weak opponents. I don't see them going 36-30 given their schedule, unless they start playing better.

My guess is they'll play .500 ball, which would give them 88 wins. The Indians would have to go 38-29 to beat that. Given their schedule, I think they have a realistic shot.

We'll just have to wait and see what happens. After all, it's a simple game. You hit the ball, you catch the ball, you throw the ball. Sometimes it rains.

Prosecutor wrote:KP74, thanks for at least acknowledging that there may be some connection between strength of schedule and number of wins. I don't know why this is so difficult to grasp for some posters.

I think it's possible that Tampa could go 36-30 in the second half and finish with 91 wins, as you said. In that case the Tribe would have to go 40-27 which would be difficult but not impossible.

But I really question whether TB will win 36 games. Looking at their first half schedule, here's their record against the weakest teams they played:

Houston 5-2Minnesota 4-0White Sox 5-2Miami 4-0San Diego 3-0

That's a total of 21-4, or 17 games over .500. They're 3 games under .500 against the rest of the league.

In the second half the only one of those teams they play is Minnesota, and only 3 games.

The Rays have 9 games against both Toronto and the Yankees, and they went 5-5 against both in the first half. They have 7 games against the Red Sox (3-9) in the first half. The only bad teams on their schedule are Minny (3 games), Seattle (7), and San Francisco (2). That's 12 of 66 games against weak teams.

The other thing is they had a top-heavy home schedule in the first half with 53 games at home (34-19) against 43 on the road (21-22). So their second half schedule is long on road games and short on weak opponents. I don't see them going 36-30 given their schedule, unless they start playing better.

My guess is they'll play .500 ball, which would give them 88 wins. The Indians would have to go 38-29 to beat that. Given their schedule, I think they have a realistic shot.

We'll just have to wait and see what happens. After all, it's a simple game. You hit the ball, you catch the ball, you throw the ball. Sometimes it rains.

See? See how well that worked? You could also add "we just need to play 'em one game at a time"

I don't need to be patient, they're going to be shit forever. - CDT, discussing my favorite NFL team

Kansas City's more formidable than the Twins, but we always struggle with the Twins. I don't see the White Sox doing us a whole lot of favors once their fire sale is complete. I'd rather play Philadelphia again than Atlanta. Despite our record against the Yankees, I'd rather play them than one of Baltimore or Texas.

Those seven games with the Tigers could absolutely decide the race. And if it comes down to the final weekend, thank MLB for giving the Tigers the hapless Marlins to beat up on.

A God Damn dead man would understand that if a minor league bus in any city took a real sharp right turn, a Zack McCalister would likely fall out. - Lead Pipe

For all the talk about the Indians schedule, Detroit's is basically just as weak.

True, because they're both in the same division. Which is why I think it will be harder to beat out Detroit than to finish with a better W-L than all the East teams except Boston.

I'd rather beat Detroit and win the division, too, but after watching the Tribe roll over against Detroit in the first half I don't have much confidence that anything is going to change. Miguel Cabrera is going to kick our ass just as bad the next time around, not to mention Austin Jackson, Prince Fielder, Victor and Jhonny.

The Indians have the fourth-worst record against teams with a record above .500 at 22-32, but are second in the league against teams under .500 at 29-12.

That's why I think they can realistically finish better than those teams in the East. As Tripods pointed out, 48 of their last 67 games are against teams under .500, and so far they're winning 71% of those games.

Whether they can keep spanking the bad teams at that pace is the question. Also, whether they can improve that crappy 41% against the better teams. And mainly whether they can improve on their 3-9 first half record against Detroit.

The Indians are world-beaters against the bad teams but suck against the good teams. Which is why I think they'll make the playoffs but will lose in the first round. They have a chance in a one-game playoff, though. Masterson has thrown three complete game shutouts in the first half. If he happens to be locked in at the right time, the Indians can beat anybody.

1Perry wrote:Beating up on a weak schedule sure started off on the wrong foot.

Yeah, the question is whether the Tribe can continue to win 70% of their games against the Twins, White Sox, and Royals in the second half. The Indians are better than those teams, but beating anybody 70% of the time is tough. That percentage may drop off, but I'm counting on some fire sales by those teams plus bringing up prospects to audition to weaken them further.

OTOH, they have to be able to beat Detroit more than 25% of the time (3-for-12 so far).

Prosecutor wrote:The Tribe is 3.5 games behind the Rays for the second wild card spot with 69 games to go. The Rays are in the same division with three teams that are at least nine games over .500, plus the Blue Jays who are 44-48....

Factoid of the day: Rays are 43-23 since May 8th. As of end of play for both them and the Red Sox today the Rays are 1 1/2 games behind the Sux. They have 7 games left against the Sux (4 away, 3 home) and 7 games against the O's (3 away, 4 home). IMO the Skankees this year are as much as a non-factor as the Jays (tee-hee!).

See how much can change in one week? If the Rays get really hot (like their last 9-1 stretch) we ain't got a snowball's chance.

I've tried 'em all, I really have, and the only church that truly feeds the soul, day in, day out, is the Church of Baseball.~~~Annie Savoy-"Bull Durham"

The Rays won 14 of 16 heading into the AS break, but 12 of those wins came against the Astros, White Sox, and Twins, with two coming against Detroit. That's my point, they only have 3 games against the Twins in the second half and none against the Astros and White Sox.

They started off the second half with two wins against the Blue Jays - another sub-.500 team. We'll see what happens when they start playing the better teams on their schedule, but you're right, they're white hot right now. The Indians, OTOH, are not beating the Twins, one of the teams they have to dominate to have a shot. At this point I'm wondering whether their defense is good enough to make the playoffs no matter how easy their schedule is.

We just moved ahead of Texas in the wild card standings and they're in a free fall having lost 9 of 11. If we can stay ahead of them we only need to finish with a better record than the 3rd place team in the East (presumably Baltimore) to make the playoffs.

YahooFanChicago wrote:Baltimore has an easy schedule for the next 2 weeks then they have it really rough for 2-3 weeks including a 3 game series against us.

They have 9 games against the Red Sox, 7 against the Rays, 3 against Oakland, and 6 against the Yankees.

Meanwhile the Indians have 16 out of 58 remaining games against teams over .500. I don't think they're going to win the division or finish with a better record than Boston or Tampa, but their chances of finishing ahead of Texas, Baltimore, and New York look pretty good. They're currently ahead of Texas and NY and one game behind the O's.

peeker643 wrote:Hey, umm... Any way we can keep saying the same fucking thing a couple hundred more times. I don't think my migraine has turned into a tumor yet.

Jesus Christ.

This thread is being kept active just for the potential "I told you so " moment

Galley Boys are slop on top of a so-so burger and a bun you coulde get from a Covneninet food mart generic pack. They the Antoine Joubert of burgers; soft, sloppy, oozing grease and cheap sauce and extremely overrated by a biased fan base. Proof that if you throw enough cheap sauce shit on a burger you still can't overcome the lame burger. -JB

YahooFanChicago wrote:Baltimore has an easy schedule for the next 2 weeks then they have it really rough for 2-3 weeks including a 3 game series against us.

They have 9 games against the Red Sox, 7 against the Rays, 3 against Oakland, and 6 against the Yankees.

Meanwhile the Indians have 16 out of 58 remaining games against teams over .500. I don't think they're going to win the division or finish with a better record than Boston or Tampa, but their chances of finishing ahead of Texas, Baltimore, and New York look pretty good. They're currently ahead of Texas and NY and one game behind the O's.

They just went 3-0 against a .500+ team and 2-4 against sub-.500 teams...... the records of the remaining teams to face might not have the significance you seem to think it does.

All that may matter is whether or not this team is on one of their hot streaks when they face the teams they need to beat..... that remains to be seen. But, this season has been so up and down that records of opponents means nothing.

dazindiansfanuk wrote:They just went 3-0 against a .500+ team and 2-4 against sub-.500 teams...... the records of the remaining teams to face might not have the significance you seem to think it does.

All that may matter is whether or not this team is on one of their hot streaks when they face the teams they need to beat..... that remains to be seen. But, this season has been so up and down that records of opponents means nothing.

Over one or two series I'll agree that anything can happen, but over 58-60 games I think the schedule does matter. I'd hate for the Tribe to have to play the Red Sox seven times and Tampa nine times.

They're also doing a lot better since Mark Reynolds got benched and Raburn and Aviles started getting those right-handed at-bats.

Having your starting pitchers rarely give up an earned run doesn't hurt, either.

1Perry wrote:Just a what if.........I realize there are many variables to this......What if Peralta gets suspended for the rest of the season?

It makes probably a one or two-win difference. Maybe three at the most. At least from a WAR perspective, depending how good/bad his replacement is.

Thanks, so theoretically it has the possibility to make a difference.

Those were rough estimates on my part, but, yes, it could certainly make a difference.

Wonder how Peralta would handle it. He's a free agent, so having the 50-game ban out of the way would benefit him on the open market. But he could probably appeal it and keep playing this season and worry about the suspension for next season. At least, that seems to be what the talk is in the media.

A God Damn dead man would understand that if a minor league bus in any city took a real sharp right turn, a Zack McCalister would likely fall out. - Lead Pipe

and Pros, you can think about it all you want but please don't do it. IMO, there should be no posting by you in this thread talking about the wildcard standings and schedule until September 30th (if at all).

and Pros, you can think about it all you want but please don't do it. IMO, there should be no posting by you in this thread talking about the wildcard standings and schedule until September 30th (if at all).

It's baseball and jinx's count.

Maybe enough has been said about the schedule so I'll avoid that topic.

But let me just say that those who were arguing that we need to win the division to make the playoffs because overtaking three teams to get a wildcard spot is too difficult should think again. It took the Tribe about a week and a half to do just that.

As for jinxes, the Indians are already jinxed far beyond my poor power to add or detract. Same with the Browns and Cavs, until something changes. Maybe bringing back Rocky Colavito and celebrating his 80th birthday will do the job.

and Pros, you can think about it all you want but please don't do it. IMO, there should be no posting by you in this thread talking about the wildcard standings and schedule until September 30th (if at all).

It's baseball and jinx's count.

Maybe enough has been said about the schedule so I'll avoid that topic.

But let me just say that those who were arguing that we need to win the division to make the playoffs because overtaking three teams to get a wildcard spot is too difficult should think again. It took the Tribe about a week and a half to do just that.

As for jinxes, the Indians are already jinxed far beyond my poor power to add or detract. Same with the Browns and Cavs, until something changes. Maybe bringing back Rocky Colavito and celebrating his 80th birthday will do the job.

and Pros, you can think about it all you want but please don't do it. IMO, there should be no posting by you in this thread talking about the wildcard standings and schedule until September 30th (if at all).

It's baseball and jinx's count.

Maybe enough has been said about the schedule so I'll avoid that topic.

But let me just say that those who were arguing that we need to win the division to make the playoffs because overtaking three teams to get a wildcard spot is too difficult should think again. It took the Tribe about a week and a half to do just that.

As for jinxes, the Indians are already jinxed far beyond my poor power to add or detract. Same with the Browns and Cavs, until something changes. Maybe bringing back Rocky Colavito and celebrating his 80th birthday will do the job.

and Pros, you can think about it all you want but please don't do it. IMO, there should be no posting by you in this thread talking about the wildcard standings and schedule until September 30th (if at all).

It's baseball and jinx's count.

Maybe enough has been said about the schedule so I'll avoid that topic.

But let me just say that those who were arguing that we need to win the division to make the playoffs because overtaking three teams to get a wildcard spot is too difficult should think again. It took the Tribe about a week and a half to do just that.

As for jinxes, the Indians are already jinxed far beyond my poor power to add or detract. Same with the Browns and Cavs, until something changes. Maybe bringing back Rocky Colavito and celebrating his 80th birthday will do the job.