The successful negotiation of an ambitious trade deal between Canada and the European Union will not guarantee the re-election of a Conservative federal government in two years or a lasting bump in the polls for the ruling party but it stands to provide Prime Minister Stephen Harper with something even more essential.

This tentative Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA) — if it is finalized — will secure Harper’s place in the history books. It is an achievement that will outlast his tenure as prime minister and the day-to-day controversies that may well continue to take the shine out of his third mandate.

It is not because of jet lag that former Quebec premier Jean Charest stayed up all night on a trip to China this week to remind the media that he was the initial mover behind this week’s agreement-in-principle.

It is a rare policy initiative whose scope justifies claiming credit for it from the political grave but this — like the initial Free Trade agreement (FTA) with the U.S. in the case of former prime minister Brian Mulroney — is one of them.

Recent Canadian history suggests that a deal that requires every premier to implement it once it is finalized is not done until it is done.

The high level of provincial involvement in the talks that led to this week’s tentative agreement does not insulate it totally from the daily realities of politics.

The agreement enjoys the tentative backing of Quebec and Ontario’s minority governments but with provincial elections on the horizon, it may still be in for some rough sailing.

Quebec is home to a vocal dairy industry lobby that is gearing up to denounce the agreement over Canadian concessions on cheese imports. Still, the Parti Québécois has long been an ardent free-trade apostle and on Friday it reiterated its support for the deal. This is a rare issue on which the sovereigntist establishment, the main opposition parties in the national assembly and corporate Quebec see eye to eye.

The dynamics could be different in Ontario and on Parliament Hill where the Canada-EU deal has the potential to throw a trade cat among the NDP pigeons. On Friday the initial response of the federal NDP was uncharacteristically non-committal.

More than a few New Democrats will see this deal as a promising wedge issue to distinguish themselves from Justin Trudeau’s Liberals.

Trudeau’s father sought to lessen Canada’s economic dependence on the U.S. by aggressively pursuing alternative markets such as Europe as early as the 1970s. In sharp contrast with 1988, when the NDP had to share the anti-FTA vote with the Liberals, the New Democrats could — if they reject CETA — be the main receptacle for the votes of those who oppose it. The party’s instincts will lean in that direction. Some of its traditional allies will expect no less.

But the 1988 NDP could afford to ignore Quebec’s strong pro-trade current. Today the province has become central to its fortunes. Taking on the bulk of its influential chattering class over CETA is not a proposition to be entertained lightly.

Moreover, this initiative is unlikely to galvanize the Canadian left against it in the way that the FTA and the NAFTA did. The twin spectres of cultural imperialism and of a race to the bottom will be harder to raise over a deal that involves 28 diverse European countries — many of whom have higher environmental standards and stronger social safety nets than Canada — than they were for agreements that involved only the U.S. and Mexico.

Finally, it may be counterintuitive to suggest that the striking of this agreement will increase the Conservative backroom jostling for an inside track on Harper’s succession but it will.

The absence of a signature policy legacy was the argument that made the case for Harper staying on to seek a fourth mandate most compelling and it may now be out of the mix.

As they head to a national convention at the end of the month with something to celebrate and, indeed, because of it Harper’s succession will loom larger on the minds of some ambitious Conservatives than at any other time in the past.

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