Learning to be Elite

After 7 games, the challenge ahead of the Warriors is clear. The Warriors can’t call themselves an elite team until they start beating elite teams on a consistent basis. It’s not enough blow out average or mediocre teams. The Warriors’ 3 losses so far this season have been against teams they may need to climb over to advance in the playoffs. While all 3 losses have been on the road — a fact that shouldn’t be overlooked — the Warriors may not have the luxury of home court advantage in the playoffs. So far, are the 2013-14 Warriors really an improvement over the 2012-13 crew that made it to the second round? A quick comparison would suggest yes, but that their new strengths exacerbate some weaknesses.

The Warriors team that was blown out Saturday night in a lackluster performance against the Memphis Grizzlies was a pale imitation of the ferocious team that blew out the 76ers and Timberwolves earlier in the road trip. The strengths of the Warriors in those earlier victories — crisp ball movement, sharp shooting, ball-hawking defense — were in short supply. The Warriors look as if they’ve played together long enough to execute against the average teams, but are not yet tuned into each other’s games deeply enough to run their system efficiently against top-tier competition. The Memphis loss was full of almost-but-not-quite moments — passes or defensive rotations a split second late, rebounds bobbled away and deflections not quite controlled. Given the Warriors’ up-tempo, active attack, there’s a very fine line between an easy basket and a costly turnover. On Saturday, the Warriors kept losing at the margin.

But when you pull back a bit from a single game, there’s ample evidence to show that this Warriors team is shaping up to be a dramatic upgrade over its predecessor. With all the usual disclaimers about small sample size, the statistical comparison is rout:

This year’s team is shooting 48% from the field and 43.2% from behind the arc. Last year’s team show 45.8% and 40.3%. As a result, this year’s team’s effective shooting percentage (adjusted for the increased value of 3 pointers) has jumped from 50.6% to 55%. Klay Thompson’s hot start certainly has had an impact on the Warriors’ team numbers, but both Curry and Lee are shooting at a higher percentage than last year (and new addition Andre Iguodala is currently shooting .603 from the field).

The Warriors are shooting so well because they’re getting good shots, and they’re getting good shots because they’re moving the ball unselfishly. The Warriors assist percentage (percentage of assisted baskets) is up from 58.9 to 63.7. Likewise, the assist ratio (number of assists in 100 possessions) moved up from 17.3 to 18.3. With the arrival of Andre Iguodala and the return of Andre Bogut, the Warriors have no shortage of players capable of finding and hitting the open man.

But the 2013-14 Warriors’ improvement isn’t limited to offense. On defense, the current team bests its predecessor on opponent field goal percentage (41.0% vs. 43.9%), opponent three-point field goal percentage (29.0% vs. 34.7%), opponents’ assists per 100 possessions (20.8 vs. 24.3) and opponents’ turnovers per 100 possessions (17.7 vs. 13.9). On other words, the 2013-14 Warriors force more turnovers, allow fewer passes leading to buckets and are generally harder to score on than the team that came before them. The defensive rating (points allowed per 100 possessions) is the ultimate measure of this, down nearly 10 points — from 102.6 to a remarkable 92.7.

The two statistical categories where the Warriors have fallen off last year’s pace — rebounding and turnovers — are inextricably tied up with the team’s other successes.

The Warriors’ rebounding rate has fallen from 51.3% to 49.8%. Broken down a bit more, the big drop occurs in the offensive rebounding numbers (25.4% down to 20.8%; for comparison, defensive rebounding dropped only from 75.5% to 74.6%). Two factors likely contributed to the offensive rebounding drop. First, Carl Landry is gone and Festus Ezeli is injured. In 2012-13, those 2 Warriors pulled down a combined 4 offensive rebounds a night. Their replacements, Marreese Speights and Jermaine O’Neal, average only 1.8. But besides personnel changes, the Warriors’ attention to transition defense has probably put a dent in their ability to crash the offensive glass. Rather than sticking around to mix it up for an offensive board or potentially snag a long rebound, most of the Warriors have been releasing back to make sure they’re in defensive position. The Warriors have given up second-chance opportunities in exchange for making it harder for opponents to score. They’re offensive efficiency (points per 100 possessions) has dropped from 104.2 last year to 101.6 today. But whatever offense they may have sacrificed has been more than replaced by the 10-point decrease in points given up per 100 possessions (102.6 to 92.6).

As has been well-documented and endlessly discussed, the Warriors are having problems this season holding onto the ball. Their turnovers per 100 possessions jumped from 15.5 last season to 19.7 this year. Stephen Curry has only seen 1 more turnover a game (3.1 to 4.2), so the rest of his teammates have to share some of the blame. Ultimately, the same factors contributing to the Warriors’ terrific shooting percentages also may be causing the turnovers to pile up. The Warriors are pushing the ball more this year, with their pace rating (possessions per 48 minutes) jumping from 96.81 to 102.37. Within these possessions, the Warriors are passing the ball more, with assists per 48 minutes up from 22.4 to 24.6. In other words, the Warriors are running and passing more. With that increase in aggressiveness comes a greater propensity for mistakes and turnovers. The better teams in the West — the Clippers, Spurs and Grizzlies to name 3 — will be more capable of pushing the Warriors’ high-octane offense into the red, causing it to overheat.

So would the Warriors be better off rebounding more and turning over the ball less? Of course. But would the Warriors be better off making the trade-offs necessary to get more rebounds and turn the ball over less? That’s a much thornier question. For rebounds, I’d gladly forgo a few extra possessions that may or may not result in baskets in exchange for a consistently excellent transition defense. The Warriors have benefitted tremendously from being able to set up their defense every possession and funnel offensive players towards strong defenders like Iguodala, Bogut and Thompson. The Spurs game, in particular, showed what a leveling force consistently good defense can be. On the other hand, I’d prefer the Warriors tone down the flashy passing a bit — at least against tremendous defensive teams like the Grizzlies and Spurs. Passes that sailed through easily against the Wolves or 76ers were often snagged or deflected in the final 2 games of the road trip by superior defensive teams. The interior passing, in particular, was a disaster against two teams packing the key with defenders. The Warriors will need to develop better situational awareness as the season progresses about when to ease up on the passing game.

Big picture, the Warriors still need to prove that they can beat the best in the West. But given how well the Warriors have played so far, I’m confident those wins will come. The team has made a categorical leap both on offense and defense. They’re still getting used to playing fundamentally sound, full-court defense and moving the ball constantly through the hands of 4 scoring threats. There are growing pains associated with their progress, and the better teams will expose those problems, as the Clippers, Spurs and Grizzlies have done so far this season. But once exposed, those weaknesses have relatively easy fixes. By learning from their losses to elite teams, the Warriors should gain the knowledge and experience they need to become one themselves.