Labour slips behind Tories as election delay harms Brown image

Labour's majority could have been threatened if Gordon Brown had pressed ahead with plans to hold a general election tomorrow, according to a new Guardian/ICM poll. Support for the party has fallen to its lowest level in any ICM survey since Tony Blair left office.

Carried out last weekend, at a time when parties would have been scrambling for real votes had a contest been called for November 1, the poll gives the Conservatives a clear five-point lead over Labour.

It puts the Tory party on 40%, up two points since the last Guardian/ICM poll which was carried out shortly before Mr Brown announced that there would be no autumn election. Labour support now stands at 35%, down three points.

Liberal Democrats, who have suffered badly in recent polls, will be relieved by a two-point climb to 18%, perhaps a consequence of the increased attention caused by Sir Menzies Campbell's resignation.

The result, if it had occurred on polling day, would have left Labour as the largest party in the House of Commons but well short of the 326 seats needed for an overall majority. According to one academic estimate, the Conservatives could have hoped to gain around 70 seats.

The poll underlines the change in political mood since the conference season and the cancelled election that followed. Conservative support has remained at or above 40% in the last seven opinion polls carried out using a range of methodologies.

However, Labour support also stands close to the party's 2005 general election score and is still stronger than in most polls carried out before Mr Brown took office. A year ago, the Guardian/ICM poll saw Labour support dip to 29%, six points lower than today's score.

It is widely thought that a strong Liberal Democrat recovery would reduce support for the Conservatives and so narrow the gap between the two main parties.

But the Conservatives have retained a solid lead in today's ICM poll despite this month's reasonable Liberal Democrat performance. Although Conservative support has fallen slightly since the most recent ICM poll, for the Sunday Telegraph almost three weeks ago, which put the party on 43%, the party is still attracting support from former Labour and Liberal Democrat voters in almost equal numbers.

It has also squeezed smaller parties. This month's poll records no support for the United Kingdom Independence party, perhaps because of Mr Cameron's emphasis on the need for a referendum on the European reform treaty. Support for all small parties has dropped to 7%, with the Scottish and Welsh nationalists on 4% and the Greens on 2%.

Mr Brown may find it hard to shrug off the effect of his apparent indecision over election timing: 29% of voters say their opinion of him has fallen in the last month. Only 8% say it has improved, a net decline of 21 points.

A further 60% say their opinion has not changed much either way.

Attitudes to Mr Cameron do not show such a marked change. Although 21% of all voters say their opinion of him has gone up, 17% say it has gone down. A further 58% say their view remains unchanged.

Voters also remain broadly in favour of a referendum on the European treaty. Of those questioned, 53% said Mr Brown was wrong to rule it out, including 39% of Labour supporters. Only 25% say he has made the right decision, including 47% of Labour supporters.

ICM interviewed a random sample of 1,011 adults aged 18+ by telephone between Oct-ober 26 and 28. Interviews were conducted across the country and the results have been weighted to the profile of all adults