What If Rich Countries Shut the Door on Immigration?

Migrants who arrived in the port of the Italian island of Lampedusa wait to be transferred by the military to a reception center inland. Italy and France agreed in April of 2011 to carry out joint patrols along Tunisia's coast to block migrants headed for Europe, with the French interior minister saying there was no duty to take in so-called boat people.

This is a “what if” interview from the World Economic Forum’s Risk Response Network. To view the rest of the series, click here.

Amid a global recession, catastrophic rates of unemployment in developed countries and a rising tide of xenophobia, the World Economic Forum, in collaboration with TIME, speaks with Ian Goldin, director of the Oxford Martin School and a professor of globalization and development at the University of Oxford, about the likelihood of anti-immigrant policies coming to the fore. Goldin warns that such policies would not only harm communities the world over, but be counterproductive.

Are we in the throes of a global backlash against immigration?
We’re seeing an increasing focus on immigration in response to the severe economic crisis, rising unemployment and falling living standards. As has happened throughout history, there’s a tendency to blame immigrants for these problems. Politically, it’s an easy option, but it’s never worked out too well as a strategy.

And there are clear signs of this?
In the worst case, there has been a wave of physical attacks on immigrants in Greece this year, with people being beaten up or stabbed just because of the way they look. On the political level, there are also very real examples of anti-immigration policies. In the U.K., the government has put dramatic caps on migration, which are making it hard to hire skilled workers. It’s so difficult to get a visa now that I’m finding that people from, say, China or South Africa are no longer willing to come to academic conferences here. In Spain, immigrants are offered lump-sum payments to go home. In the recent French elections, the far-right National Front campaigned heavily against migration and won almost a fifth of the votes. In the U.S., immigration is a hot topic ahead of the elections, although what’s interesting there is that since Latinos are such a significant voting force it changes the dynamic.

What would have to happen for a government to really shut the door?
If rich countries were really going to shut the door on immigration, they would need to stop international flights, block their ports, end tourism and brace themselves for a rapid contraction in GDP. Far from seeing unemployment fall, it would rise: companies would fail as they lose staff and management, and demand would fall. Ironically, we would expect to see a higher number of illegal immigrants. In the U.S., whenever the government has taken a tougher line on immigration-law enforcement, the number of Mexicans living there illegally has actually risen. This makes sense when you consider that, if you know you’re not going to be allowed back into a country, you’re going to stay, rather than leave when the jobs dry up.

Who would feel the impact the most?
Migrants to start with: the legal ones before the illegal ones. Then everyone else. So many industries — from agriculture to health care to construction to technology to tourism — depend on migrant workers. Hospitals would close as they lose cleaners and heart surgeons alike. Women who depend on foreign nannies to go out to work would suffer. There would also be a very damaging impact on the migrants’ home countries: in many developing countries, it is striking that the financial support from expatriate remittances well exceeds foreign aid — yet this vital assistance would dry up.

What would the broader consequences be?
As well as the ethical implications and the loss of cultural diversity, locking out immigrants would fundamentally undermine the competitiveness of developed economies. Immigrants are a self-selecting group: they’re the risk takers, the ones who are ready to make a massive sacrifice. It takes a lot of bravery to become an outsider, which makes migrants a great source of dynamism. If you look at the U.S., more than half the start-ups in Silicon Valley are founded by migrants, as well as many of the most iconic firms — Apple, Google, Yahoo, PayPal. Migrants account for more than three times as many Nobel laureates and Academy Award film directors as native-born Americans. Developed countries can’t afford to lose them.

What would a society without immigration feel like?
It would be like living in North Korea.

What’s the best way to prevent a backlash against migration?
I’m not politically naive. I’m not recommending open borders, though that might be an ideal to work toward, just as we have with free-trade negotiations over a period of around 50 years. For now, the first thing is to recognize that migration has not been managed well enough. Migrants bring with them short-term, local costs, whereas the benefits are society-wide and long term, so there is a mismatch. Whether we’re talking about Lampedusa, the island off the coast of Italy that is the first port of call for refugees from Tunisia, or Slough, a British town with a large migrant population, local people understandably feel that immigration is a burden. It’s a national issue that needs to be managed on the national level. Second, leaders need to be more honest. What’s depressing about the current status quo is that there’s no empirical evidence to support this view that immigrants take people’s jobs, swallow up resources and are a drag on the economy. But the myth is propagated, despite the fact that, depending on how far you go back, we’re all immigrants. In Britain, Queen Victoria grew up speaking German, and somehow she still came to be seen as this symbol of Britishness. We create huge myths all the time, instead of focusing on the facts. For example, if rich countries were to admit enough migrants from poor countries to expand their own labor forces by just 3%, the world would be richer, according to one estimate, by $356 billion a year. Toronto is made up of 50% immigrants, and it’s consistently ranked as one of the best cities to live in the world. We need more data, and less hearsay.

Is this something that’s important to you personally?
Migration has always been a way to escape famine, poverty and persecution. Without migration, I wouldn’t be here, both in the specific sense, as a South African living in England, and in the most literal one. If they hadn’t been able to leave Austria, my family would have been killed by the Nazis.

It would look like North Korea, if we stopped immigration? Seriously? How is this guy working in academia? He might be an Oxford professor but he's stupid. There are "reasons" this guy got the job, and they are reasons that would make you mad if you knew them. But he's unworthy of his position. If people like Ian Goldfingerschnegel keep getting hired unjustly at high-level universities, the long-term result will be that people just stop listening to what these phonies have to say.

F U Ian Goldin! I'm part Jewish too so I understand what you said about your family escaping the Nazis but...F U! Your family moved from a dangerous country to whatever country it could, which happened to be South Africa, where a lot of people looked and thought like them. Now you live in the UK, where a lot of people look and think like you.

If you really want to allow immigrants from Africa to pour into the wealthy countries of Europe and make life a nightmare for the innocent people living there... FFFFFFFFF UUUUUUUU! Go to hell you stupid so and so! Africans need to make their own corrupt governments better instead of flooding into European countries to drag them down to their level and make life miserable for the Europeans.

Even in the USA, Mexican immigrants don't exactly grow the economy...they save up cash, often from all cash jobs that don't require them to pay taxes, and they send a lot of it home to Mexico. This is a drain on our country's wealth.

Don't give us that BS about how we need immigrants to do menial jobs. There are tons of unemployed people in this country who can and will do those jobs. These range from broke college students desperate for cash to broke uneducated people living with their mothers in the inner city. We have plenty of people to do those jobs, but unfortunately it is much harder for people born in the USA to find work than it should be.

Some immigration is good and my argument is not that all borders should be closed to everyone. My argument is Africans need to be kept the hell out of Europe because they make life miserable for Europeans and that is simply not fair, not ok, and not right!

As living in Sweden I have to say it sounds like he´s rather out of touch with reality. Migration has been extremely costly, in suffering, in the economy and not least the social structure of the country. I have yet to read a single scientific study that show any significant long term gain by migration. I suspect those "gains" hardly exist outside the minds of its propagators. Just like the wonders of the communist state failed to materialize. A parallel also in the kind of people propagating it.

This statement: "It would be like living in North Korea." demonstrates the blind fundamentalism of these people. It was hardly like North Korea before the mass immigration, and there is no reason why that would change. Anyone holding such absurd views is pretty much disqualified from any rational discourse. Emotionally driven nonsense is more like it.

Besides, if Lynn, Roth, Vanhanen and others are correct, which seems increasingly likely these days, the migration is immensely destructive even on very long term.

Actually, the immigration is an huge drain on the state finances, as demonstrated by Professor Jan Ekberg and others. The economists nowadays seems to have reached a consensus that that third world immigration generally do not contribute to the economy which they immigrate to. In Swedens case, since we are utterly nonselective, have an extreme immigration, and a strong welfare system, it is a huge burden and will remain so in foreseeable time.

@sasboy Why can't Americans move to Sweden? Serious question...a lot of white Americans want to move to Europe for many reasons, but it is supposedly very difficult to gain permanent residency there. Why is it easy for so many Africans but difficult for so many Americans? Or is it easier to move to Europe from America than I've been lead to believe?

Why choose North Korea as an example of a country without immigration? Japan would be more accurate. The choice of the most backward nation on the planet reveals the author's liberal propaganda agenda.

Immigration is disliked around the globe because people prefer to be around others who share their values, language and culture -- it's human nature, hard-wired.

It didn't feel like living in North Korea when I grew up in mass-immigration free Europe in the 60's and 70's. Instead we had less crime, less poverty, no taxpayer-money out the window for integration programs that don't work.

Does anyone believe this professor's crap? He really thinks the developed world has a duty to take in who ever thinks they're better off in our countries.

How did Vladimir Putin put it? France has become the colony of its colonies. He may as well have spoken about any other Western European country, except that a country doesn't necessarily have to have colonies anymore for this to happen.

I have seldom read such bs in TIME. I am from Sweden where there is a huge problem caused by immigration. Almost 80% of the extra-European immigrants that has come since 2007 are unemployed and on benefits. Over 60% of ALL benefits goes to immigrants (their children not included) and they now represent 18% of the population. How can this be good in any way? Do I need to raise the topic of crime? Sweden is the country with the second worse record of rape in the world - it did not use to be like that before the muslim "invasion"...

We can and should stop immigration from extra-European countries and not only that - we should repatriate all extra-Europeans. It would not have the dramatic impact Mr Goldin suggests. The world has managed with trade and cultural exchange for very long without massimmigration so why should it be any different now? Why must we become a multicultural state when we don't want to?

Up until the 1960's Sweden was one of the most ethnically homogenous countries in the world - we had managed to build the best welfare state in the world and had one of the lowest crime rates. Now it is caos. Crime is soaring and wealth and welfare is redistributed from Swedes to immigrants. I hate what has happened to my beautiful country...

I would like to add some information to this issue is that one Saint Swami Dattavdhut, from Maharashtra,India, has authored a marathi book "Agamyawani" i.e.Prophesies for future i.e. from 1998 AD till 3500 AD (Published by Vanita Books,Mumbai,India ) wherin he has opined that Passport and Visas as well as the geographical and political boundaries of all nations would be left to a mere historical reference only. There are many more prophesies contained in that book regarding future of political,economical, world order.

Three generations of Hispanic govt.-dependent clients passing down that dependency from illegitimate generation to the next illegitimate generation, dropping out of $15,000 per annum per student public high school and participating in coast-t0-coast gang warfare, do not yet show any sign of becoming a "short term" problem, unless he considers three decades to be "short term".

The Marxist professor is a closeted plantation slavery advocate. He pretends the existing citizen populations the waves of illegal aliens and legal immigrants are displacing don't exist. He doesn't care about human rights, he cares about displacing citizens and laying waste to national sovereignty, so as to gut national loyalties and governments. He is a fascist.

In Massachusetts, the latest scandal has been that a Muslim immigrant woman, a visa hire, who had a BA in chemistry, was affirmative action hired as a state chemist, by fraudulently claiming she had a master's degree in chemistry. Because of her fraud, and tampering, thousands of convicted drug dealers and other violent criminals, rapists, murderers, will be freed from jail. The scandal broke during the democrat convention in Charlottte, while Obama's pal, cadillac Deval the pedophile's pal, Patrick was speaking endorsing four years of even bigger fraud. The media kept it hushed up and the national media won't report it, but the MA media is trying to deflect the blame from where it belongs, with a corrupt administration that seeks to lard up the payroll with as many incompetent frauds like the Muslim "Annie" Dookhan, nee Khan. In all candor, if this scum was so beneficial for an economy, why are their home countries such cesspools, and if raising taxes is the solution to all the worlds problems, why doesn't Obama tell his corrupt third world foreign cronies from the rich countries we're told are "developing" to raise their own taxes and take care of their own.

What would western countries look like if the third world hordes were sent back, they would slowly but surely start to look as they always did. Their economies would become more sound, tax rates would decline as the welfare burden, crime and other social costs the illegals and the substandard legal immigrants heaped upon our shoulders. There would be less rapes, less murders, we wouldn't have the honor killings and undie bombers. Our hospitals would start to be clean again, and not smell as though their floors were mopped with filthy water. We'd see an end to the disgusting third world infections that have been harming our citizens. I mean, it's been more than a decade since I've gone into a hospital and smelled clean, sanitary scent I grew up being familiar with when entering a hospital.

The vast majority of our entrepreneurial immigrants come from East Asia, Europe and India.

We already have a diverse country so "North Korea" as what we would become is a hilarious liberal scare tactic.

We already have 12 million illegal immigrants.

We already have 8% unemployment, with 16% probably being closer to correct.

Are you telling me that those who are unemployed need to be competing further with the 1-2 million lower level immigrants that arrive here each year?

What if we simply closed down our southern borders (Mexico, Gulf Coast), re-upped our deportation efforts and created a selective immigration policy?

You know, like Japan? Without immigration, they seem to fare okay when it comes to innovation and the sciences don't they? (Japan makes this entire article a farce).

The 90% of our immigrants (legal and illegal) who aren't the entrepreneurs described in the article are costing this country billions and billions of dollars. Everyone knows this. The only people who seem to want more immigration are the people from countries which the immigrants arrive from and rich liberals.

No doubt the rich countries may stop new immigrants or expel those already living there due to fear that the immigrants may take hold in countries politics. But their economy may slow down in due ciurse of time. It should be noted that immigrants provide cheap labor which lower the the cost of the products making them to compete in international market.

The professor says "Immigrants are a self-selecting group: they’re the risk takers, the ones who are ready to make a massive sacrifice."

He is implying that immigrants are more likely to be entrepreneurs by nature. However, that is simply not true. Legal immigrants are not entrepreneurs in their own countries and often worked in universities or professional fields before leaving. They may have been unemployed with no usable skills. They only become entrepreneurs in the U.S. because they cannot find comparable work (no medical license, lack of fluency in local languages) and need to survive somehow. The legal immigrants who started new companies in Silicon Valley did not use their own money to become large companies. They used angel investors, IPOs, and other American funding sources. Illegal immigrants also create new companies for self-employment because they cannot legally work in their new countries.

I do not see any benefit in immigration of muslims in Europe. The ONLY result will be the islamization of Europe. Yes immigration is excellent if your goal is the destruction of what we call "western civilization". The author says that "depending on how far you go back, we’re all immigrants" and that "In Britain, Queen Victoria grew up speaking German". This is true but in Europe we all shared a common culture. Education and culture all over Europe is based on the same pillars "Roman Laws", "Christian religion" and "Greek Philosophy".

Muslim immigrants do not share any of them.

They are necessary to Europe only if your intention is to change the British legal system with saria.

this by far the stupidest article i've ever read in TIME. because it has no author but originates from an organization i'm not going to say any more exept that they just have absolutely no idea what they are talking about!!

Hmm the return of good paying jobs since companies would have to pay a fair legal wage. Low unemployment, schools not on the verge of bankruptcy, hospitals not overflowing with people who dont pay to support them, identity theft would decline. Every government agency would immediately be in better shape and could run on the current funds provided. Would I take that, you bet. People need to put aside the misnomer of cheap labor. There is nothing cheap about illegal immigration, they consume tons of resources without providing one dime in taxes.

Migration is an universal and natural phenomena of all human beings since the days they stepped on this Earth. Discovery of America by Columbus and there after huge migration of Europeans on American soil is clear indication of this fact. Now these illegal migrants have become part and parcel for the economy of the country they have migrated because they provide cheap labor which is major factor while costing the products whether required for the consumption inside the country or meant for export. Once the Pakistan put curb on illegal Bangladeshi migrants in Karachi connected with the Fish Industry. Fearing arrest and forced deportation, the Bangladeshis eloped in densely populated area of Karachi. The processing of fishes meant for export stopped because of non availability of specialized workers (Bangladeshi). With in 2 weeks the Government withdrew its order and requested the illegal migrants to return at their job assuring them that no legal action be taken against them just to save the big export market. What is true for Pakistan is applicable to other countries too whether big or small.

First of all I live in the U.S. And I'm in favor of open immigration policies. A position that differs from many other people in my country. While I concur with a number of points made in the article, I totally disagree with the statement "it would start to look like North Korea." That is an overstatement of what would happen.

What would actually happen, especially to a country like the U.S. that has benefited from smart immigrants coming to our country and staying here, is a country would move toward mediocrity. It would not be a disaster for a country to severely restrict immigrants. But the hosting country would suffer on both ends of the spectrum. New immigrants willing to take-on low paying jobs that other people do not want; jobs that would not get covered, go unfilled. And the country would also suffer on the high end of the spectrum from keeping smart people out.

New immigrants can help to keep a country vibrant, so long as they wish to participate in what that country has to offer, to become (most likely through their children) a citizen of their new world. Europe possibly more than some other places is currently struggling with integrating new immigrants into their world. Partly due to decisions made by the immigrants. I'm not sure what the solution is for this issue, but it does need to be addressed.

We just returned yesterday from France and one incident we observed shocked me. We were looking to board the Metro at Gare du Nord. As people were trying to get off of the train, two hefty Muslim woman seeking to board the train, blocked one-half the exit. A large rotund man seeking to get off actually tussled with the woman as he exited. The behavior of both parties was somewhat alarming. Nothing major happened, but it felt like a symptomatic example of what is currently happening in Europe and I'm sure happens daily in the U.S.

Tensions are currently high, and politicians for the most part seem more focused on the negative aspects rather than stepping up and showing meaningful leadership. Sorry for wandering off the track here somewhat but the article is talking about an important, complex issue.

When too many come here from there, then soon, here becomes there. No one here wants to live there, except those from there.

The main problem is not immigrants, but those that benefit from immigrants , like the professor, and then pass on all the social,economic and environmmetal costs to the communities., while smearing those that oppose cultural displacement as eveil.

I am a liberal on most issues but get hot over our immigration quotas. The bleeding heart liberals, the hand-wringing churches and the greedy CEO’s all have different reason for importing even more immigrants. But let’s show some humanity here at home. Our own are now desperate in need of help. Millions here in the USA are broke and in need of a job and affordable housing. We need to put the “NO VACANCY” sign up at all airports, docks and borders. Immigrants will flood this country and duplicate the conditions that they fled from and force us to live in those conditions . The land between the sea to shinning sea is no longer mt (empty), every acre of it is being used to support the population that is already here. Whether it is for farming, grazing, watershed, infrastructure or recreation it is already under stress. With climate change now reducing arable land we can not afford to bring millions more into this country.

I am a liberal on most issues but get hot over our immigration quotas. The bleeding heart liberals, the hand-wringing churches and the greedy CEO’s all have different reason for importing even more immigrants. But let’s show some humanity here at home. Our own are now desperate in need of help. Millions here in the USA are broke and in need of a job and affordable housing. We need to put the “NO VACANCY” sign at all airports, docks and borders. Do legal Mexicans really want to flood this country with millions more people just to duplicate the conditions that they fled from. If they want crowded and unemployment why not just go back to Mexico. I sure don’t want millions of Northern Europeans coming over here either. The land between the sea to shinning sea is no longer MT, every acre of it is being used to support the population that is already here. Whether it is for farming, grazing, watershed, infrastructure or recreation it is already under stress.

This is the worse article I've read in a LONG time...... What a load of shit! How do you know all these 'facts'? Turn into North Korea? What, suddenly the world is going to put an embargo on us if we cut down on immigration? How stupid do you think we are?.......

Can't we just cut to the chase and start having the 2 minutes of hate? That way we don't have willy-nilly around with all this crockery. It be a whole lot easier and to the point if we just showed faces of White people, maybe Jared Taylor types and such, for two minutes on T.V. while we scream and froth at the mouth at those evil racists and maybe muslims too.

Of course we will need future C.R.A.W.L officers (Counter Racist Anti-White LGBT) to observe us during these sessions in order to ensure sufficient anti-racist ardor.

If any Whites exhibit insufficient multicultural zeal they will immediately be sent to the Rosa Parks re-education camps located in Arizona and Israel. There they will enjoy diversity lessons, genderless physical actives and labor, secular-athiest church services and a showing of Schnidler's list every night on the camp movie screen.

Mr Lalit...you are messed up. That doesnt even make sense. No country sends out people to other countries. People move out of the country for better opportunities. I am sure you were not capable enough to more abroad to make a better life for yourself.

Japanese dont immigrate a lot because the living standard in Japan is similar to other developed countries. Mass immigration does not happen between countries having similar living standards. So your statement is flawed.

Immigration overall is so screwed up. I am an skilled immigrant worker from India working in the US. You can bash me over me being a foreign worker but I too am pro strict immigration laws. Immigration has to be controlled. The laws have to be made such that people are not able to find loopholes to by pass these. This specifically affects the legal workers who are doing work honestly. Some businesses take advantage of bringing low cost Skilled labor but many who come here because of their skills amp; not cost get bashed by rednecks on these forums, the politics of the country, impulsive govt. policies or amendments.

Furthermore this hate is further fulled when people see new immigrants being successful while their own kids ,relatives ,friends etc suffer just because they did not want to or were not able afford the education needed. This needs to be addressed by the govt. Cost of getting at least a bachelors degree should be subsidized. Proper counselling geared towards market trends to guide young kids towards a better career has to be provided.

What if supposedly representative governments of rich western democracies actually implemented immigration policies that the majority of citizens preferred instead of those preferred by the elites? The greatest obstacle to that sort of representative government is the elite media, which systematically excludes the voices of those who might represent the majority, while endlessly publishing the views of those with the opposite agenda, no matter how outrageous; to wit:

I don't want nobody with us whether illegal or legal unless they're our White Sisters and Brothers There are millions of legal Mexicans , other Spanish-speaking people, Muslims, Asians. What good thewy do they do? Nothing other than downgrade, make fun of our civilization and waiting for us to become a minority so they can "take over all of our institutions and pusk us apart"' !!! Being legal doesn't mean that they have embaraced our way of life and become civilized!!! It's time for Nationalism.