Demographic Researchhttp://www.demographic-research.org
Demographic Research is a peer-reviewed, open access journal of population sciences published by the Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research in Rostock, Germany.enTue, 31 Mar 2015 16:31:12Tue, 31 Mar 2015 16:31:12Demographic Researchhttp://www.demographic-research.org
http://www.demographic-research.org/images/rss/logo_rss_70x70.gifDo low survey response rates bias results? Evidence from Japan (by Ronald R. Rindfuss, Minja K. Choe, Noriko O. Tsuya, Larry L. Bumpass, Emi Tamaki)http://www.demographic-research.org/volumes/vol32/26/#ref=rss
BACKGROUND<br>In developed countries, response rates have dropped to such low levels that many in the population field question whether the data can provide unbiased results.<br><br>OBJECTIVE<br>The paper uses three Japanese surveys conducted in the 2000s to ask whether low survey response rates bias results. A secondary objective is to bring results reported in the survey response literature to the attention of the demographic research community.<br><br>METHODS<br>Using a longitudinal survey as well as paradata from a cross-sectional survey, a variety of statistical techniques (chi square, analysis of variance (ANOVA), logistic regression, ordered probit or ordinary least squares regression (OLS), as appropriate) are used to examine response-rate bias.<br><br>RESULTS<br>Evidence of response-rate bias is found for the univariate distributions of some demographic characteristics, behaviors, and attitudinal items. But when examining relationships between variables in a multivariate analysis, controlling for a variety of background variables, for most dependent variables we do not find evidence of bias from low response rates.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS<br>Our results are consistent with results reported in the econometric and survey research literatures. Low response rates need not necessarily lead to biased results. Bias is more likely to be present when examining a simple univariate distribution than when examining the relationship between variables in a multivariate model.<br><br>COMMENTS<br>The results have two implications. First, demographers should not presume the presence or absence of low response-rate bias; rather they should test for it in the context of a specific substantive analysis. Second, demographers should lobby data gatherers to collect as much paradata as possible so that rigorous tests for low response-rate bias are possible.<br><br>Wed, 25 Mar 2015 00:00:00http://www.demographic-research.org/volumes/vol32/26/Women’s decision-making autonomy and children’s schooling in rural Mozambique (by Luciana Luz, Victor Agadjanian)http://www.demographic-research.org/volumes/vol32/25/#ref=rss
BACKGROUND<br>Women’s decision-making autonomy in developing settings has been shown to improve child survival and health outcomes. However, little research has addressed possible connections between women’s autonomy and children’s schooling.<br><br>OBJECTIVE<br>To examine the relationship between rural women’s decision-making autonomy and enrollment status of primary school-age children living in their households and how this relationship differs by child’s gender.<br><br>METHODS<br>The analysis uses data from a 2009 survey of rural households in four districts of Gaza province in southern Mozambique. Multilevel logistic models predict the probability of being in school for children between 6 & 14 years old.<br><br>RESULTS<br>The results show a positive association of women’s decision-making autonomy with the probability of being enrolled in primary school for daughters, but not for sons. The effect of women’s autonomy is net of other women’s characteristics typically associated with enrollment and does not mediate the effects of those characteristics.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS<br>Based on the results, we argue that women with higher levels of decision-making autonomy may have a stronger preference for daughters’ schooling and may have a greater say in making and implementing decisions regarding daughters’ education, compared to women with lower autonomy levels. Results also illustrate a need for considering a broader set of autonomy-related characteristics when examining the effects of women’s status on children’s educational outcomes.<br><br>Tue, 24 Mar 2015 00:00:00http://www.demographic-research.org/volumes/vol32/25/Quality of demographic data in GGS Wave 1 (by Jorik Vergauwen, Jonas Wood, David De Wachter, Karel Neels)http://www.demographic-research.org/volumes/vol32/24/#ref=rss
BACKGROUND<br>A key feature of the Generations & Gender Programme (GGP) is that longitudinal micro-data from the Generations and Gender Surveys (GGS) can be combined with indicators from the Contextual Database (CDB) that provide information on the macro-level context in which people live. This allows researchers to consider the impact of socio-cultural, economic, and policy contexts on changing demographic behaviour since the 1970s. The validity of longitudinal analyses combining individual-level and contextual data depends, however, on whether the micro-data give a correct account of demographic trends after 1970.<br><br>OBJECTIVE<br>This article provides information on the quality of retrospective longitudinal data on first marriage and fertility in the first wave of the GGS.<br><br>METHODS<br>Using the union and fertility histories recorded in the GGS, we compare period indicators of women’s nuptiality and fertility behaviour for the period 1970-2005 and cohort indicators of nuptiality and fertility for women born after 1925 to population statistics.<br><br>RESULTS<br>Results suggest that, in general, period indicators estimated retrospectively from the GGS are fairly accurate from the 1970s onwards, allowing exceptions for specific indicators in specific countries. Cohort indicators, however, were found to be less accurate for cohorts born before 1945, suggesting caution when using the GGS to study patterns of union and family formation in these older cohorts.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS<br>The assessment of the validity of demographic data in the GGS provides country-specific information on time periods and birth cohorts for which GGS estimates deviate from population statistics. Researchers may use this information to decide on the observation period or cohorts to include in their analysis, or use the results as a starting point for a more detailed analysis of item nonresponse in union and fertility histories, which may further improve the quality of GGS estimates, particularly for these earlier periods and older birth cohorts.<br><br>COMMENTS<br>Detailed country-specific results are included in an appendix to this paper, available for download from the additional material section.<br><br>Fri, 13 Mar 2015 00:00:00http://www.demographic-research.org/volumes/vol32/24/On the age-specific correlation between fertility and female employment: Heterogeneity over space and time in OECD countries (by Uta Brehm, Henriette Engelhardt)http://www.demographic-research.org/volumes/vol32/23/#ref=rss
BACKGROUND<br>Though there has been profound research on the curious change in correlation between total fertility rate (TFR) and female labor force participation (FLP) in the mid-1980s, aspects of the compositional character of age-specific effects and the nature of countries’ heterogeneity have been neglected.<br><br>OBJECTIVE<br>The present paper aims to contribute to filling this gap by analyzing annual total fertility rates and their equivalents for four age groups between 20 and 39 years as well as the respective lagged FLP from 17 OECD countries between 1985 and 2010.<br><br>METHODS<br>Random Intercept and Random Coefficient Models are applied, allowing us to assess both effects and country heterogeneity in slopes and intercepts.<br><br>RESULTS<br>The analyses reveal that the development of the correlation between FLP and TFR after 1985 is comprised of very different relations between age-specific fertility and labor participation. The youngest group’s situation is determined by a decrease in both fertility and FLP, while countries’ effects differ increasingly. The oldest women’s fertility decisions seem to be detached from labor market influences, though country variation is high. Women in their late 20s and early 30s, in contrast, appear to be most affected by the incompatibility of childbearing and gainful employment. Though these effects seem to have overcome their low points during the mid-1990s, only women in their early 30s show country-convergence.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS<br>The results highlight the fact that total and age-specific fertility behavior, FLP-effects and country variances are distinct concepts that add considerably to the broad understanding of the correlation between fertility and FLP.<br><br>Fri, 06 Mar 2015 00:00:00http://www.demographic-research.org/volumes/vol32/23/The timing of family commitments in the early work career: Work-family trajectories of young adults in Flanders (by Suzana Koelet, Helga A.G. Valk, Ignace Glorieux, Ilse Laurijssen, Didier Willaert)http://www.demographic-research.org/volumes/vol32/22/#ref=rss
OBJECTIVE<br>This article examines the diverse ways in which young adults develop both their professional career and family life in the years immediately after they complete their education. Building a career and starting a family often occur simultaneously in this stage of life. By studying the simultaneous developments in these life domains, we can gain a better understanding of this complex interplay.<br><br>METHODS<br>The data consist of a sample of 1,657 young adults born in 1976 who were interviewed as part of the SONAR survey of Flanders at ages 23, 26, and 29 about their education, their entry into and early years on the labour market, and their family life. Sequence analysis is used to study the timing of union formation and having children among these young adults, as well as how these events are related to their work career. Multinomial regression analysis is applied to help us gain a better understanding of the extent to which these life course patterns are determined by education and economic status at the start of the career.<br><br>RESULTS<br>The results reveal a set of work-family trajectories which vary in terms of the extent of labour market participation and the type and timing of family formation. Various aspects of the trajectory are found to be determined by different dimensions of an individual’s educational career (duration, level, field of study). Education is more relevant for women than for men, as a man’s trajectory is more likely than a woman’s to be determined by the first job.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS<br>By using a simultaneous approach which takes into account both family and work, this life course analysis confirms that men have a head start on the labour market, and examines the factors which influence the distinct trajectories of young women and men.<br><br>Wed, 04 Mar 2015 00:00:00http://www.demographic-research.org/volumes/vol32/22/Europe-wide fertility trends since the 1990s: Turning the corner from declining first birth rates (by Marion Burkimsher)http://www.demographic-research.org/volumes/vol32/21/#ref=rss
BACKGROUND<br>In the period 1995-2002 there was a change in trajectory from decline to rise in first birth fertility rates across Europe.<br><br>OBJECTIVE<br>A number of previous studies have looked at the demographic causes of the transition. This study evaluates their conclusions by analysing a comprehensive set of indicators for fifteen countries with data in the Human Fertility Database.<br><br>METHODS<br>Comparisons are made between the four years before and after the fertility trough, to discover what changed between these two periods.<br><br>RESULTS<br>In the period before the trough, peak age-specific fertility rates were falling; these tended to stabilise after the year of minimum fertility. The width of the fertility curve, however, was already widening in the 1990s, and this trend continued. The transition from fall to rise in TFR1 occurred when the increase in the width of the curve more than compensated for any further falls in peak rates; this explanation is valid for countries in both Eastern and Western Europe. The increasing width of the fertility curve was caused by two factors: the decline in young (pre-modal) fertility slowed, whilst the rise in older (post-modal) fertility accelerated. For some countries, a rise in underlying cohort rates also contributed to the rise in period rates. The likelihood of childless women entering motherhood also rose in some but not all countries.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS<br>During the 1990s, women were postponing first births across Europe. A rebound took place for several reasons, with the overarching driver being the strong rise in late fertility.<br><br>COMMENTS<br>In some countries the steep rise in late fertility had an unexpected and paradoxical effect on postponement rates (defined as the year-on-year increase in mean age at first birth). Recuperation at post-modal ages of postponed first births caused an acceleration in ‘postponement’ rates, as defined by this metric.<br><br>Tue, 03 Mar 2015 00:00:00http://www.demographic-research.org/volumes/vol32/21/The role of smoking on mortality compression: An analysis of Finnish occupational social classes, 1971-2010 (by Alyson van Raalte, Mikko Myrskylä, Pekka Martikainen)http://www.demographic-research.org/volumes/vol32/20/#ref=rss
BACKGROUND<br>Adult lifespan variation has been stagnant since the 1960s in most developed countries, despite increases in longevity. However, national averages mask large socioeconomic differences. In Finland lifespan variation among the highest occupational class has continued to decline, while the lower classes have experienced stagnation.<br><br>OBJECTIVE<br>We aimed to investigate the role that smoking has played in the occupational social class divergence in lifespan variation since the 1970s.<br><br>METHODS<br>Finnish register data (1971-2010) by occupational social class, ages 50+, was used. Smoking-attributable mortality was estimated by the Preston, Glei, and Wilmoth (2010) method.<br><br>RESULTS<br>We expected smoking-attributable mortality to explain the divergence by occupational class because smoking is socially patterned and particularly important for middle- and young-old-age mortality, ages which contribute greatly to lifespan variation. Instead, we found that among men social class differences would have widened even further without smoking; for women lifespan variation was unaffected by smoking.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS<br>The maturation of the smoking epidemic will not decrease uncertainty in the timing of death or reduce inequalities in this dimension of mortality by occupational class in Finland.<br><br>Wed, 25 Feb 2015 00:00:00http://www.demographic-research.org/volumes/vol32/20/Demography and the statistics of lifetime economic transfers under individual stochasticity (by Hal Caswell, Fanny Annemarie Kluge)http://www.demographic-research.org/volumes/vol32/19/#ref=rss
BACKGROUND<br>As individuals progress through the life cycle, they receive income and consume goods and services. The age schedules of labor income, consumption, and life cycle deficit reflect the economic roles played at different ages. Lifetime accumulation of economic variables has been less well studied, and our goal here is to rectify that.<br><br>OBJECTIVE<br>To derive and apply a method to compute the lifetime accumulated labor income, consumption, and life cycle deficit, and to go beyond the calculation of mean lifetime accumulation to calculate statistics of variability among individuals in lifetime accumulation.<br><br>METHODS<br>To quantify variation among individuals, we calculate the mean, standard deviation, coefficient of variation, and skewness of lifetime accumulated transfers, using the theory of Markov chains with rewards (Caswell 2011), applied to National Transfer Account data for Germany of 1978, and 2003.<br><br>RESULTS<br>The age patterns of lifetime accumulated labor income are relatively stable over time. Both the mean and the standard deviation of remaining lifetime labor income decline with age; the coefficient of variation, measuring variation relative to the mean, increases dramatically with age. The skewness becomes large and positive at older ages. Education level affects all the statistics. About 30% of the variance in lifetime income is due to variance in age-specific income, and about 70% is contributed by the mortality schedule. Lifetime consumption is less variable (as measured by the CV) than lifetime labor income.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS<br>We conclude that demographic Markov chains with rewards can add a potentially valuable perspective to studies of the economic lifecycle. The variation among individuals in lifetime accumulations in our results reflects individual stochasticity, not heterogeneity among individuals. Incorporating heterogeneity remains an important problem.<br><br>Tue, 24 Feb 2015 00:00:00http://www.demographic-research.org/volumes/vol32/19/Improving estimates of the prevalence of Female Genital Mutilation/Cutting among migrants in Western countries (by Livia Elisa Ortensi, Patrizia Farina, Alessio Menonna)http://www.demographic-research.org/volumes/vol32/18/#ref=rss
BACKGROUND<br>Female Genital Mutilation/Cutting (FGM/C) is an emerging topic in immigrant countries as a consequence of the increasing proportion of African women in overseas communities.<br><br>OBJECTIVE<br>While the prevalence of FGM/C is routinely measured in practicing countries, the prevalence of the phenomenon in western countries is substantially unknown, as no standardized methods exist yet for immigrant countries. The aim of this paper is to present an improved method of indirect estimation of the prevalence of FGM/C among first generation migrants based on a migrant selection hypothesis. A criterion to assess reliability of indirect estimates is also provided.<br><br>METHODS<br>The method is based on data from Demographic Health Surveys (DHS) and Multiple Indicator Cluster Surveys (MICS). Migrants’ Selection Hypothesis is used to correct national prevalence estimates and obtain an improved estimation of prevalence among overseas communities.<br><br>RESULTS<br>The application of the selection hypothesis modifies national estimates, usually predicting a lower occurrence of FGM/C among immigrants than in their respective practicing countries. A comparison of direct and indirect estimations confirms that the method correctly predicts the direction of the variation in the expected prevalence and satisfactorily approximates direct estimates.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS<br>Given its wide applicability, this method would be a useful instrument to estimate FGM/C occurrence among first generation immigrants and provide corresponding support for policies in countries where information from ad hoc surveys is unavailable.<br><br>Fri, 20 Feb 2015 00:00:00http://www.demographic-research.org/volumes/vol32/18/Gendered disparities in Mexico-U.S. migration by class, ethnicity, and geography (by Erin Hamilton)http://www.demographic-research.org/volumes/vol32/17/#ref=rss
BACKGROUND<br>Men are more likely than women to migrate from Mexico to the United States. This disparity has been shown to vary by level of education, suggesting that gender may interact with other forms of social status to inform the relative risk of Mexico-U.S. migration for men and women.<br><br>OBJECTIVE<br>This study examines whether and how the gender disparity in migration from Mexico to the United States varies by class, ethnicity, and geography.<br><br>METHODS<br>Data from two waves of the Mexican Family Life Survey are used to estimate the rate of migration to the United States for men and women across class, ethnic, and geographic groups.<br><br>RESULTS<br>The gender disparity in Mexico-U.S. migration varies systematically by class, ethnicity, and geography. The gender disparity in migration is largest among those with the least education, with the least power in the workforce, in the most impoverished households, who both identify as indigenous and speak an indigenous language, and who live in the southern region of Mexico. It is smallest among those with the most education, in the least impoverished households, with the highest occupational status, who do not identify as indigenous, and who live in the northern regions of Mexico.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS<br>Social privilege equalizes the gender disparity in Mexico-U.S. migration and social disadvantage exacerbates it. This pattern may arise because social status allows women to overcome gendered constraints on mobility, or because the meaning of gender varies by social status.<br><br>Thu, 19 Feb 2015 00:00:00http://www.demographic-research.org/volumes/vol32/17/Urban fertility responses to local government programs: Evidence from the 1923-1932 U.S. (by Jonathan Fox, Mikko Myrskylä)http://www.demographic-research.org/volumes/vol32/16/#ref=rss
BACKGROUND<br>During the 1920s and early 1930s, U.S. fertility declined overall but with large regional variations. Changes in foreign born populations explain only part of this. Differences in public health and poverty relief programs may further help explain these declines because of their potential impact on fertility determinants, in particular on breastfeeding and child mortality.<br><br>OBJECTIVE<br>We investigate whether public health investments in child health (conservation of child life programs) and poverty relief (outdoor care of poor or charity for children and mothers) affected fertility for U.S. cities over 100,000 persons between 1923 and 1932.<br><br>METHODS<br>We analyze data covering 64 cities between 1923-1932 that include birth information from the U.S. Birth, Stillbirth and Infant Mortality Statistics volumes and city financial information from the Financial Statistics of Cities volumes. Time and city fixed-effects models are used to identify the impact of public investments on fertility.<br><br>RESULTS<br>Fixed effects estimates indicating the conservation of child life programs explain about 10 percent of the fertility change between 1923 and 1932. Outdoor care of poor did not seem to be related to fertility. Investments in charity for children and mothers were associated with fertility increases, possibly because poorer areas experienced relative increases in both higher fertility and charitable spending.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS<br>Public spending on child health was strongly related to decreasing fertility in the U.S. during the 1920s, possibly because of increased breastfeeding and decreased child mortality. This leads to a better understanding of the 1920s fertility decline and highlights how public policy may affect fertility.<br><br>Wed, 18 Feb 2015 00:00:00http://www.demographic-research.org/volumes/vol32/16/