Time To Garner Blessings – Holy Friday – April 14th Morning Brief

We have finally made it to the last day of the week. Although, this week wasn't as good as the 1st week of April, we still managed to remain on the greenside. Yesterday we did not see a lot of volatility, particularly, in the commodity side as most of the investors are out before Easter. Most of the banks are closed today in observance of Good Friday. This is why we may not see many trading opportunities today.

The U.S. dollar dropped in comparison to the other currencies following President Trump's statements, who spoke about an overvalued U.S dollar, reviving past anxieties concerning Washington’s lack of competitiveness in international trade.

In his interview with the Wall Street Journal, he said "I think our dollar is getting too strong, and partially that's my fault because people have confidence in me. But that's hurting—that will hurt ultimately".

Major Economic Events To Watch Today

Today, we have few economic releases solely from the United States, whereas, the remaining economies are out due to Good Friday.

USD

CPI m/m (13:30)

Core CPI m/m (13:30)

Core Retail Sales m/m (13:30)

Retail Sales m/m (13:30)

Treasury Currency Report (Tentative)

Gold (XAU/USD) – The Safe Haven Asset

The precious metal Gold rose to $1288.80, adding $10.70, or 0.8%. That's mainly due to uncertain developments around the globe which causing insecurity about the future of the market. Insecure investors are shifting their investments towards the precious metals while pulling out of the stock markets.

Besides the geopolitical risks, we need to monitor the economic activity from China. China’s economic figures advanced in the 1st quarter, as it showed a stronger than anticipated trade data. Their exports rose at the fastest pace in 2 years to 16.4%, whereas, imports climbed to 20.3%.

As we know, China is a top consumer of Gold so the economic growth in China leads to demand hike sentiments and ultimately results in an increase in Gold prices because of the speculation.

Gold – Hourly Chart

Technical Outlook – Intraday

The technical outlook is unchanged as we haven't encountered any fluctuation in the precious metal. Yesterday, the yellow metal crossed above a major resistance level of $1282 and it's still holding above the same level as it's working as a support now.

In the 4 – hour chart, we can see that the RSI and Stochastic both show that the Gold is trading in the overbought territory. In spite of low trading volume, the leading indicators have failed to come out of the overbought territory.

Forex Trading Signal

Frankly speaking, the Gold is being held in between an upper and a lower range and I'm not expecting it to break out on any side. Overall, I'm bullish on Gold and would like to buy it only above $1289 with a long term target of $1302.

Ending Remarks

We need to be cautious about the fake-outs today as the market is not likely to have as much bullish/ bearish power as it has on normal days.

About the author

Arslan Butt
// Index & Commodity Analyst
Arslan Butt is our Lead Commodities and Indices Analyst.
Arslan is a professional market analyst and day trader. He holds an MBA in Behavioral Finance and is working towards his Ph.D.
Before joining FX Leaders Arslan served as a senior analyst in a major brokerage firm. Arslan is also an experienced instructor and public speaker.

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