The latest poll of Texas voters shows US president Donald Trump trailing Democratic challenger Joe Biden, and even with the progressive Massachusetts senator, Elizabeth Warren.

Texas voters have backed Republican candidates for more than 40 years of presidential elections, since Jimmy Carter’s 1976 victory. Texas’s 38 electoral seats, the second-largest after California, make it a crucial state for Republicans.

A Quinnipiac University poll released today shows that Biden leads Trump 48% to 44% among the 1,200 Texans contacted. Biden’s support is strong among women, independents, and non-whites:

The poll also showed that Warren, who has typically trailed Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders in national polls, is the second-strongest candidate in Texas, and she is nearly even with Trump.

If the election were held today, and Warren was the Democratic candidate, 45% of Texans would vote for her, versus 46% for Trump, according to the poll. In that matchup, 5% of voters said they “don’t know” which of the two they’d choose.

Sanders does not fare quite as well, with 44% of Texans saying they’d choose him vs. 47% who would go for Trump. Pete Buttigieg, the Indiana mayor, would lose to Trump 44 to 46%, and California Sen. Kamala Harris would lose 43 to 47%.

Beto O’Rourke, the charismatic former Texas senatorial hopeful, appears to have fallen from favor in his home state. Just 45% of Texans said they’d choose him over 48% for Trump, and 60% of Texas Democrats polled say O’Rourke should campaign for Sen. John Cornyn’s seat instead in 2020.

Responders in the poll lean heavily Republican, the university notes, and included just 407 Democrats and “Democrat-leaners.”