Friday, July 18, 2014

Stage 14 on
Saturday will look something like Friday's, only tougher. At 177k, it is shorter
than stage 13, but has a lot of climbing. Most of the stage goes uphill, except
for a very few flat sections, like the approximately 10k flat around La Paute
and Bourg-d'Oisans. That's where the intermediate sprint point is located, just
about 40k into the stage. We'll see some action there. Sagan would have a
better chance than most of the sprinters at capitalizing on that INT.

The treacherous trio on stage 14

Bourg-d'Oisans is a
launch pad for some epic mountains, Like Alpe d'Huez, The Col de la Croix de
Fer and Les Deux Alpes. Stage 14 will make it's way out of Bourg-d'Oisans skipping
Huez, and head east. Then the peloton go up, up, and more up, to the first KOM
summit of the day: the 34k-long, category-1 Col du Lautaret. The first two-thirds
is easier than the last 10k or 11k, and it never gets really steep at all, but
it's a long time to be going up, and it will put some hurt into a lot of legs
that will have two more big, bad climbs still ahead of them.

The Lautaret tops
out at about 2058 meters, the highest point the race has seen so far. Then
comes the long descent that leads to the second challenge of the day: The Hors
Categorie Col d'Izoard. This beautiful climb is a Tour favorite--and one of
mine as well. At 2360 meters of elevation (or about 7740 feet) it is the
highest point in the 2014 Tour. It's characteristic serpentine switchbacks and
distinctive exposed summit has become somewhat emblematic as a French Alp Tour
de France climb.

Profile of the Col d'Izoard

The Col d'Izoard is
officially 19k at 6%. It has a couple of brief respites in the first half, but
the final 9k offer no breaks, and rise fairly steadily at grades of between
7.5% and 9% most of the way. The first rider over the summit wins the " Souvenir
Henri Desgrange" prize, in honor of the father of the Tour De France. I
think it usually comes with 5000 Euros or so.

Then a long descent
to the final climb of the day: The cat-1 Risoul climb. This is the Risoul's
first time as a finish climb in the Tour De France. It runs 12.6k and averages
6.9%. The summit and finish line are at 1855 meters up, and it has about an
880m drop.

If you've been
doing the math, you see that the categorized climbs on Saturday's stage 14 add
up to over 65k of climbing. There is even more climbing than that, but that's
just the measured ones. The first 82 kilometers are almost entirely uphill, as
you can see in the profile, so it will be a war of attrition out there
tomorrow. The riders will also
have to go through some severe weather changes as they climb through the heat,
up to the cold alpine climate above the treeline, and down, and up again and
again. With bronchial infections going around the peloton, we will probably see
some more riders getting sick, and maybe dropping out. That cold air can get to
ya.

Profile of the final climb, and new finish

MY PICKS:

Well, I dropped the
ball on Porte today, but pretty much everything and everyone else I mentioned
and predicted about the stage came true. [I scored very high in my cycling
fantasy games!] I even said that Majka could have a go, and sure enough, he
made his moves and finished the stage in 2nd place! He had been sort of
anonymous and unimpressive in the peloton the first two weeks. Usually a great
talent in the hills (He finished this year's Giro d'Italia in sixth place
overall), I think that--with or without Alberto Contador--Tinkoff Saxo planned
to save Majka for the big mountains. I think I recall in 2012, in the Vuelta a
España, Team Movistar saving the young Colombian Nairo Quintana until very late
in the game, to become Valverde's top lieutenant in the high mountains.

Rafal Majka follows Leopold Konig on stage 13

So, what about
today's picks?

Picking Nibali
would be too easy. In fact, maybe the real question should be how much is Nibali going to win by? He would certainly love to put another minute or two in his pocket before the race hits the Pyrenees...

Tejay, Valverde, Pinot,
Konig and Bardet have been great in the mountains. They all need to attack
Nibali, but who can beat him across the line at this point?

I want to say Pinot or Valverde or Van Garderen, but they are all a step behind NIbali right now.

So, I will pick Joaquim Rodriguez to win from the
break.

Long[er] shot pick:
Mikel Nieve from SKY. He didn't
finish so well on Friday on the Chamrousse, but SKY may want to make a
statement after what happened to their first
replacement leader. Give Nieve a long leash, and he just might pull it off.

I would not be
surprised to see Thomas Voeckler and Purito Rodriguez doing their best to get
into a breakaway, and chase those mountain points; and the summit finishes all
get double points, so that's incentive to go for the win, too.

197.5k from
Saint-Étienne to Chamrousse. High mountains; HC summit finish.

Weather: Clear
skies; Hot, high 80s f.

Stage 13 forays into the Alps

Matteo Trentin was
relegated from 6th to 60th place on stage 12, after his crooked sprint in the
finish, which blocked out John Degenkolb. Trentin made a public and genuine
apology for the illegal move, which he said was not intentional.

Van Den Broeck and
Kittel have been down on the ground, before the race came on the air.

*Visconti was first over the first cat-3 KOM, and Kadri was second.

Katusha are driving
at the front of the peloton.

By km85 the lead is
almost five minutes.

They have averaged
44 kph (27 mph) over the first two hours on the road.

Stage 13 profile shows two long climbs

-97k: The lead is
3:50.

-96k: Cofidis
leader Daniel Navarro is off the
bike getting attention on the roadside. He has been ill with bronchitis, and is
now climbing into the team car with a painful grimace on his face. The Spanish
climber's race is over.

Thursday, July 17, 2014

Tomorrow: The Alps
arrive! The cat-1 Col de Palaquit is a Tour first-timer as the first climb in
the Alps. It's about 14k at just over 6% average. But a short descent of about
2k in length interrupts the climb after the first 3kms, so the actual 12k of
climbing includes some much steeper sections.

Stage 13 enters the Alps

The 200-k long
stage finishes at 1730m up, on the Chamrousse. It is an HC climb at 18.2k long,
with a 7.3% average gradient. Most of the steepest sections come early on the
climb, but after 180k of racing in the heat and sun, and after the long
Palaquit climb, riders will have to pace themselves carefully, or risk going
into the red too soon.

It is expected to
be another very hot day tomorrow, over 90 f. For this reason, the GC favorites
may decide not to burn too much fuel till the finish. This could allow a strong
breakaway the chance to succeed. Though what we usually see, and what I expect
we'll see tomorrow, is the GC teams timing it so that they catch the break on, or
just before, the final climb. Then the top climbers will see who's got the best
legs at the summit finish, and will try to improve their overall positions in a
tight race for the podium.

The next two days
are strictly for the mountain goats. Froome, Contador, and Talansky are gone, and
Nibali still has a nice two-minute cushion at the top of the leader board. But
we know that anything can happen in a 3-week tour, and just one day, when a
rider is not at his best, or he hits a small crack in the road, or accidentally
touches wheels with another rider, can change the entire complexion and outcome
of the race.

The HC Chamrousse climb profile

Most, if not all of
the riders currently in the top 10 overall, have been fairly evenly matched in
the few mountains we have seen so far. But this is when the dents and scratches
and nuances start to separate the conditions of the riders from each other. I
expect we will continue to have a hot battle for GC positions all the way to
the end. Then, of course comes the race of truth...

I really think that
Nibali could win the stage on Friday if he wants, and the others will have to
attack him to try and rein him in. Richie Porte and Alejandro Valverde seem
best able to challenge Nibali now. Then Bardet, Peraud, Pinot and Van Garderen
seem sort of evenly matched at a close, but second tier. In optimal
circumstances all of them, along with Mollema, Van Den Broeck, Fuglsang,
Kwiatkowski, Rui Costa, Chris Horner, Haimar Zubeldia, Leo Konig, and Pierre
Rolland are really all top-tier GC contenders, but there is only so much room
at the top.

Their fitness levels
right now suggest that the current top three on GC may be a cut above the rest,
but a quick look at the standings shows that a mere 2:16 separates the second
and tenth place riders. Those gaps should start to grow tomorrow, and some
riders will overtake others' positions, and some will fall.

Mollema seems to be
looking better since his illness, so I would definitely not count him out.
Bardet and Peraud look great, as do Tejay and Pinot, so no matter what, we will
be treated to a good fight.

Nibali said that he
will attack the others in the mountains when he can. He knows that he is not
the best at the time trial, and he will want as big a cushion as he can get
when the race gets to Bergerac on stage 20. So rather than just follow the
wheels of your nearest challengers, when you have a cozy lead, Nibali says he
will be active. It's really up to his rivals, though, to bring the race to him.

Nibali and Porte are the top two on GC. Photo: AP

I expect we'll see
guys try to get into the breakaways in the Alps like Edet, Cherel, Riblon,
Voeckler, Westra, Bakelants, Roy, Kadri, and maybe Rein Taaramae--certainly
Cofidis and Europcar will have something going. Maybe high profile guys like
Roche, Rogers, or even Majka will have a go, since no one on the Saxo team is
within 45 minutes of the race lead. Rogers is their highest placed currently,
at 41st and 47:48 off the pace.

Finally never
forget Purito Rodriguez. He is the current King of the Mountains jersey wearer,
and says he will pursue the overall in that competition. He may try to get into
a break in either or both of the Alps stages to grab more points, and maybe
have a chance to try for a stage win. I think stage 14 suits the Spaniard a
little better than 13.

My pick for stage 13:

Team SKY
replacement-captain, and ex-triathlete, the Tasmanian Richie Porte.

Longshot pick:

I hope to see
attacks from Rolland, Horner, Gadret and Konig in the Alps, among others, so
I'll pick one of my favorite riders: American Chris Horner of the Italian Lampre-Merida team.

-130k: The break
has a 3:45 advantage over the peloton. It seems early for the peloton to be
chasing down the break, but the teams have their strategies. Sprinters' teams
who hope to contest the finish will want to keep the break on a reasonably
tight leash. Giant Shimano are driving the pace now.

Wednesday, July 16, 2014

1100 miles and the
first rest day behind the riders, the race is about half over (in distance)

187.5k from
Besancon to Oyonnax (still in the Jura); rolling.

Weather: mostly clear
and sunny; significantly warmer, 80 f.

DNS:
Fabian Cancellara (said he wants to
rest before training for the Worlds in Spain, which are in about nine and a
half weeks).

If you are like me
then you spent a significant amount of time last night reading all the news and
tweets about Contador's broken bike. So, I won't beleaguer the point. Just to
say, a not-so-simple chain of events took place wherein Berto crashed, and one
of his bikes got smashed. The frame was broken on the top tube and on the down
tube, with very little other damage or other marks. Team Tinkoff's final word
is that Alberto was not riding the bike that broke. They say the broken bike
was caused when the Tinkoff-Saxo car brushed past the Belkin Team car, and the
bikes on the roof racks got tangled and snapped Alberto's spare bike frame. It
was like "Bike-gate" on the social media sites, but I am perfectly
content to believe the publicized story, and get on with the race. Bicycles
certainly do overlap the top edges of the vehicles, so it is entirely plausible
that bicycles on top of two parallel cars could get tangled up. My question is:
Why haven't we seen more of that?

Unfortunately the
race will go on without the explosive attacking of the Spanish 5-time grand
tour champion, Alberto Contador. 179 riders took the start today for stage 11.

Here is a list, by
stage, of all the riders who have abandoned the race so far:

Tuesday, July 15, 2014

*Fabian Cancellara
has withdrawn from the race to get some rest before he gets on with training
for the World Championships in September.

Stage 11 profile

A few small hills
toward the back end of the stage on Wednesday may encourage some attacks, but
many sprinters could be around to contest the finish if they choose to chase
down the breaks. There is a 15-k descent to the finish in Oyonnax, so expect a
fast and furious race at the end, with stage hunters trying to keep the
sprinters' teams at bay. I expect to see Peter Sagan at the finish, ready to
add more points to his lead in the green jersey competition. Arnaud Demare (FDJ)
is another sprinter who could eat up that finish if he's got the legs.

The rolling 40k
that precede the final 15k, could be ideal for riders like Rui Costa or
Alejandro Valverde to try and get away from the other GC contenders and maybe
gain some time, but it is more likely that the GC contenders will let the fast
men duke this one out. The GC guys have the summit finishes on stages 13 and 14
to think about. Also, race leader Vincenzo Nibali would not be easy to drop on
this parcours.

Assuming the sprint
teams do not control the race on Wednesday, several talented and ambitious
riders could have a go at the stage win:

Both Tom (Giant-Shimano)
and Samuel Dumoulin (AG2R) could be
eyeing this stage. I am also looking at JJ Rojas
of Movistar, Greg Van Avermaet and
Daniel Oss of BMC, Sylvain Chavanel of the pro-conti IAM team, and
Lars Boom (who won already, on the
demanding cobbled stage 5 course) and Sep Vanmarcke
of the Dutch Belkin team.

Just for kicks,
here is a list of other candidates, by team, whom I think could be eyeing this
stage:

Katusha have
options with Porsev and Paolini if Kristoff doesn't make it to contest the
sprint finish;

Big, amiable Jens
Voigt of the Trek team, is not a bad bet.I'd like to see Jensie throw caution to the wind again, and have a try
at tomorrow's course.

I wouldn't be
surprised to see Daniele Bennati, Matteo Tosatto, or Michael Morkov try to get
into the break for Tinkoff-Saxo. They will want to be looking for new race options
now that their GC leader, Contador is gone.

The entire Orica
GreenEdge Team is loaded with viable candidates for the next couple of stages.
Simon Gerrans' fifth place finish on stage 7 is the best result that the Aussie
team has put up so far in this race, so they need to get something done.
Michael Albasini might be their best bet.

Terpstra (OPQ) and Chavanel (IAM) attacked on stage 8

Andrey Grivko
(Astana) could likely get into the break if he's feeling good.

Besides Sagan,
Cannondale have a couple of riders who are itching for an opportunity to try
their luck: Elia Viviani--a very good sprinter himself--and Marco Marcato, who
could be a good breakaway candidate.

Romain Feillu of
the wildcard Bretagne-Seche squad is a sprinter who would enjoy a shot at a
stage win, particularly if the big sprinters' teams aren't around at the end.
Another option for them could be Anthony Delaplace.

Garmin-Sharp have
several potential options for stages 11 and 12. I wouldn't be surprised to see
Jack Bauer try to make the break.

Normally, I would
select Arthur Vichot for a stage like tomorrow's, but his form hasn't looked
great to me lately. FDJ have other possibilities, like Jeremy Roy, who can try
his luck on almost any terrain.

Green Jersey leader Peter Sagan

Lotto Belisol is
chock-full-of options. Greipel will probably try to be there for the finish,
but if not, then Jurgen Roelandts and Lars Bak are both well-versed in fast,
technical finishes.

Maybe Kevin Reza of
Europcar will get a chance to ride for himself tomorrow if Bryan Coquard isn't
there at the end.

I don't think we have
seen Julien Simon get into a break yet. The French Cofidis rider was fourth at
the French National Championships a couple weeks ago.

For NetApp, Paul
Voss is a good breakaway candidate; and Zak Dempster has a fast finish.

OK. So, who am I
picking for stage 11?

Not going out on
any limbs, I am sticking with the powerful Peter Sagan.

Rain has passed for
now, and it is partly clear at the start, temps in the mid 60s. The finish line
atop the summit is shrouded in rain and clouds early, but may clear later.

Today is the first
real mountaintop finish...and it's Bastille Day. Most of the parcours is up and down; very little
flat road. On paper, it is the toughest stage the riders have seen, so far. It
should be a good GC battle before the first rest day on Tuesday. Seven
categorized climbs are featured on stage 10. Four of them are category-1
climbs, including the summit finish atop the Planche des Belles Filles (5.9k at
8.5%).

The remaining 183
riders leave the start town of Mulhouse. They have 20k of flat roads to start
the day, before all the climbing begins.

Shortly after the
neutralized opening kms, the attacks begin.

*Ten riders are off
the front, and trying to form a viable break. The peloton lets them go.