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HURRICANE ADOLPH DISCUSSION NUMBER 22
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT WED MAY 30 2001
INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 280/08. HURRICANE ADOLPH HAS CONTINUED
TO TRACK IN A GENERAL WESTWARD DIRECTION THE PAST 12 HOURS WHILE
WEAKENING. DEEP CONVECTION HAS WEAKENED NEAR THE SYSTEM CENTER AND
AN EYE IS NO LONGER APPARENT IN VISIBLE OR INFRARED IMAGERY. DEEP
CONVECTION HAS ALSO DECREASED CONSIDERABLY IN AREAL COVERAGE DURING
THE PAST 6 HOURS. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW REMAINS GOOD...BUT STABLE
LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS ARE NOW BEING ENTRAINED INTO THE INNER CORE OF THE
CYCLONE...WHICH SHOULD HELP TO HASTEN THE WEAKENING PROCESS.
THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK
PHILOSOPHY. THE MAJORITY OF THE OBJECTIVE FORECAST MODELS KEEP
ADOLPH ON A WESTWARD TRACK THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE TWO
OUTLIERS ARE THE LBAR MODEL...WHICH SHARPLY RECURVES THE HURRICANE
ACROSS SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA...AND THE GFDL...WHICH ALMOST
IMMEDIATELY TURNS ADOLPH NORTHWARD FROM ITS CURRENT POSITION. THE
GFDL AND LBAR SOLUTIONS HAVE BEEN DISCOUNTED GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF
THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WEST OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA CURRENTLY SHEARING OUT TO THE NORTHEAST AS NOTED IN
THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. ONCE THE LOW- AND UPPER-LEVEL
CIRCULATIONS DECOUPLE...THE REMNANT LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION SHOULD BE
STEERED WEST OR EVEN WEST-SOUTHWARD BY THE STRONG SURFACE RIDGE
CURRENTLY LOCATED TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF ADOLPH.
ADOLPH IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN A LITTLE MORE RAPIDLY THAN THE PREVIOUS
EXPECTED OWING TO THE SHARP INCREASE IN THE AMOUNT OF COLD AIR
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS THAT HAVE BEEN ENTRAINED INTO THE HURRICANE
DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THIS SCENARIO IS CONSISTENT WITH THE SHIPS
MODEL...WHICH BRINGS ADOLPH DOWN TO A WEAK TROPICAL STORM IN 72
HOURS. ALSO...DUE TO MORE RAPID WEAKENING EXPECTED...THE WIND RADII
WERE DECREASED SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER 24 HOURS.
FORECASTER STEWART
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 31/0300Z 16.5N 109.8W 80 KTS
12HR VT 31/1200Z 16.6N 111.0W 70 KTS
24HR VT 01/0000Z 16.8N 112.7W 65 KTS
36HR VT 01/1200Z 16.9N 114.1W 55 KTS
48HR VT 02/0000Z 17.0N 115.4W 50 KTS
72HR VT 03/0000Z 17.0N 117.5W 40 KTS
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