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December 2011

In Russia foreign policy course is defined by the President – that is why a political decision that Putin returns to this post in spring 2012 has become a significant event affecting the development of Russian-Ukrainian relations. At first sight these relations should get worse considering traditionally more rigid foreign political line of Putin and political stakes of Yanukovych to establish contacts first of all with Medvedev, who becomes Prime-Minister in the new system of power. “Yanukovych, who is evidently more prone to communicate with liberal Medvedev, was made clear that now he’ll have to deal with rough Putin. If someone had illusions, that one can come to an agreement with one of the Kremlin leaders individually, playing on contradictions, then now there are no such”, - considers political analyst Vladimir Fesenko.

Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu made a final appeal on Wednesday to French parliamentarians not to back a bill that would make it a crime to deny that Armenians had suffered a "genocide" at the hands of Ottoman Turks, dpa reported.

As the regime of Vladimir Putin faces the most serious challenge of its 12 years in power, Chinese leaders will be watching apprehensively. Instability in Russia, which shares a 2,600 mile-long border with China, would be a major strategic problem for China. The obvious resemblance to the Arab Spring is still more threatening for a ruling party that lives in fear of repeating the fate of the Soviet Union. If uprisings in Egypt and Libya created a strategic headache for China, Russia has the potential to be a migraine.

Armenia appears to be intensifying integration into the European Union, despite Moscow’s unease over the growing EU presence in its former Soviet backyard. The authorities in Yerevan are particularly keen to conclude a far-reaching “association agreement” that will lead, among other things, to a permanent free trade regime with the EU. Armenian leaders are also increasingly asserting their commitment to “European standards,” with promises to hold democratic elections and carry out other wide-ranging reforms.

In a narrow understanding the notion Baltic countries covers the states possessing direct access to the Baltic Sea, options for direct sea communications between each other without crossing borders of other states. And these are nine countries: Germany, Denmark, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Russia, Finland, Sweden, Estonia.

The declaration of the Prince of Saudi Arabia Turki Al Faisal about that Riyadh is able to start development of nuclear weapon pretty corresponds with the potential of this country. The case is that in due time Saudi Arabia provided financial aid within gaining of nuclear bomb by Pakistan. And, probably, with the contribution of Saudi Arabia a market for nuclear technologies and probably materials sale established around Pakistan. That is why considering close cooperation of the two states in this sphere, it wouldn’t be hard for Saudi Arabia to create nuclear bomb in short terms. The same is about carriers.

The ongoing unrest, violence and security crackdowns in Syria have been the subject of major international attention since February. Our current assessment is that the government and opposition forces have reached a stalemate in which the government cannot quell the unrest and the opposition cannot bring down the regime without outside intervention.

The foreign ministers of NATO Allies and partner countries will meet in Brussels on 7 and 8 December to discuss current operations, the Alliance’s relationship with its partners, and preparations for the NATO summit in Chicago on 20-21 May 2012.

Gazprom Deputy Chairman Alexander Medvedev has said Turkey will give the OK for the South Stream pipeline project, which will transport Russian natural gas to Europe by passing through Turkish territorial waters, by the end of the year.

Tensions between the United States and Russia have risen in the past month over several long-standing problems, including ballistic missile defense (BMD) and supply lines into Afghanistan. Moscow and Washington also appear to be nearing another crisis involving Russian accession to the World Trade Organization (WTO).

There has been a lot of talk in the press lately about a “cold war” being waged by the United States, Israel and other U.S. allies against Iran. Such a struggle is certainly taking place, but in order to place recent developments in perspective, it is important to recognize that the covert intelligence war against Iran (and the Iranian response to this war) is clearly not a new phenomenon.

Russian ambassador to NATO Dmitry Rogozin expressed 'doubts' about the European Union's future and warned of the bloc's economic weakness. His comments came in a wide-ranging discussion on the future of Russia and the EU.

As Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych weighs the economic benefits of the EU’s deep and comprehensive Free Trade Agreement and Russia’s Customs Union offer, Ukraine’s energy and security needs must be taken into consideration, argues Stephen Christensen.
Stephen Christensen is a resident fellow at the Prague Security Studies Institute.