On 24 November 2007, the Australian Body Politic had a Heart/Brain transplant. So far, it seems the patient is making a good recovery, but we shall monitor progress. As of 31 December 2007, the patient has been moved out of "Intensive Care".
There was a period of uncertainty, under Kevin Rudd, and then Julia Gillard. On 14 September 2010 Julia Gillard was sworn in as Prime Minister, by the Governor General.

Tuesday, 10 August 2010

Greens Preferences.

In case you were wondering, if you vote for the Greens in NSW, this year, and Lee Rhiannon does not quite get a quota, then this is how your vote would be re-distributed. Obviously, if she gets a quota, then she gets elected (end of the question), but it is far from a sure thing. Kerrie Nettle was the last candidate eliminated in the 2007 election, with 11.02% of the vote (after preferences were distributed in 28 "counts"). She started with 8.43% of first preference votes.

Electoral rules state that: "In Senate elections, a system called proportional representation voting secures the election of a number of candidates, each of whom has obtained a required quota or proportion of votes necessary for election. The quota is worked out by dividing the total number of formal votes in the election by one more than the number of places available for election."

There are 6 Senate Candidates to be elected.So, the quota is total formal votes divided by 6 + 1 = 7.Once that number is achieved, it is not possible for another candidate to pass the line, that's how it is worked out. Saves them having to go all the way down the list, but usually they do anyway.

So, back to the Green Preferences, it is almost certain that the Greens will come 3rd, probably with something about 11% (or if they do very well), maybe 14% of the vote.

Preferences will most likely give the first 4 seats to Labor and the Coalition (2 seats each). Then the race is on for 5th and 6 positions. As Labor is "On the Nose" in NSW I anticipate that the 5th position will go to to the 3rd Liberal/National Coalition candidate (Fiona Nash), so the Labor Party No 3 person (Steve Hutchins) will fight it out with Lee Rhiannon.

If she is finally eliminated, all the preferences for minor Parties and Groups and ungrouped candidates would be nullified, as only "live" candidates can receive any preferences, so the key thing to note is that Greens preferences go to Labor ahead of Liberals.

So, despite all the "fuss" about preference deals, etc, that is where her effective preferences would go.

The bit which puzzles me most is, why most of these 84 candidates bother?