LONDON--(BUSINESS WIRE)--IHS Inc. (NYSE: IHS), the leading global source of critical information
and insight, today released new graphics showing the evolution of Boko
Haram’s operational environment since its re-emergence in 2010.

The 2013 map shows the initial contraction in the group's operational
reach following President Goodluck Jonathan's announced state of
emergency and targeted military campaign in May. The campaign spanned
across the three north-eastern states where the Islamist militant group
is primarily based.

“However, any claims of military success against the group have been
overshadowed by the more intense frequency and scale of Boko Haram
attacks in Borno and Yobe States over the past year as well as recent
improvised explosive attacks targeting the outskirts of the federal
capital Abuja,” Natznet Tesfay, head of Africa analysis at IHS Country
Risk said.

The sequence of maps, created by the IHS
Country Risk Indicators and Analytics team, shows the frequency of
Boko Haram activity (attacks, arrests or weapons finds) by state and its
changing distribution over time.

The maps also highlight the areas most affected by Boko Haram's
counter-offensive, which includes border regions of neighbouring Niger
and Cameroon where armed forces are supporting Nigerian counterparts in
joint border patrols.

Military campaign to rescue 200 school girls

Pledged support from the UK, US, China and Israel to rescue over 200
school girls abducted by Boko Haram on 14 April will most likely take
the form of logistical support, including aerial surveillance, and
counter-terrorism training. Meanwhile, France, which recently announced
the deployment of some 3,000 troops to Niger, Chad and Cameroon, will
most probably focus on enhancing the capacity of security forces in
affected Francophone neighbours amid fears of the group’s dispersal
across porous borders.

“Although the Nigerian military will stand to benefit from the
assistance, Boko Haram could circumvent an air campaign and any ground
offensive, using civilian hostages as human shields and by retreating to
bases in covered areas within Sambisa Forest and Mandara Mountains along
the Nigeria-Cameroon border,” Tesfay said.

Ransom payment would boost capability

“Any payment of ransoms for hostages will also serve to boost the
Islamist group's capability, which will likely be directed at
destabilising any preparation for the February 2015 general elections,
fomenting sectarian rivalries as well as targeting any assets or
nationals from countries providing assistance,” said Tesfay.

The latter opens the door for greater cooperation between Boko Haram -
almost solely focused on Nigeria - and other Sahel-based jihadist groups
as their interests become more aligned.

“Boko Haram attacks outside of its operational hub in Nigeria's
northeast will increasingly undermine President Jonathan's presumed
re-election ambitions as well as any optimism gained when Nigeria
recently overtook South Africa as the region's largest economy,” Tesfay
concluded.

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