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TROPICAL STORM KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT THU SEP 24 1998
KARL REMAINS IN A SHEAR STATE WITH THE CENTER ON THE WESTERN EDGE
OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE BOTH 3.0.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS INCREASED TO 50 KT. SOME SLIGHT
STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS PER SHIPS. THE
WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS LIKELY TO INCREASE
BEYOND 24 HOURS AS A MID- TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC.
KARL HAS BEEN MOVING MORE SOUTHEASTERLY THIS EVENING AND THE INITIAL
MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW 125/8 KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MAKE
A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE EAST...THEN NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY. MOST OF
THE TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS SHOW THIS SCENARIO. THE NOGAPS SOLUTION
STILL SUGGESTS A NEAR-STALL DURING A FUJIWHARA INTERACTION WITH
HURRICANE JEANNE. LIKE THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE THIS ADVISORY INDICATES
A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THIS POSSIBILITY AND THE MORE NORTHEASTERLY
MOTION SHOWN BY THE MAJORITY OF THE GUIDANCE.
GUINEY
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 25/0300Z 31.3N 55.9W 50 KTS
12HR VT 25/1200Z 30.8N 54.4W 55 KTS
24HR VT 26/0000Z 30.9N 52.4W 60 KTS
36HR VT 26/1200Z 31.9N 50.4W 55 KTS
48HR VT 27/0000Z 33.1N 48.0W 50 KTS
72HR VT 28/0000Z 35.5N 43.5W 50 KTS
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