NCAA Basketball Picks: Texas Tech vs. Kansas

Monday, March 04, 2013 11:37 AM ET

KU is the big NCAA Basketball betting favorite for this game, and understandably so. Can the Jayhawks cover the big number, or can Texas Tech stay in this game, and keep the final margin within the spread?

The Kansas Jayhawks have won or shared the Big 12
regular-season title each of the last eight seasons. With wins in their final
two games the Jayhawks will run that streak to nine seasons.

Kansas will try to get one win closer to that goal when it
hosts the 10-17 Texas Tech Red Raiders for Senior Night at Allen Fieldhouse
Monday night (7 pm ET, ESPNU).

Raiders-Jayhawks: The
Line

Most NCAA Basketball odds shops we sampled opened Kansas at -24.5
for Monday night's game, with an OVER/UNDER of 142. And both those numbers had
held steady in the early betting.

Raiders-Jayhawks Game
Set-Up

Kansas has won its last six games in a row, although it
needed overtime to beat Oklahoma State and a little help from the zebras to get
past Iowa State. But Saturday the Jayhawks shot 57 percent from the field,
going 11 for 18 from 3-point land, in pounding West Virginia 91-65, covering
the spread as 15-point chalk.

Texas Tech, on the other hand, had lost nine games in a row,
seven of those by at least 15 points, until Saturday when it shot a blazing 62
percent from the field in beating TCU 72-63.

So Kansas, at 13-3 in conference play, is tied for first
place in the Big 12 with rival Kansas State. But thanks to their two victories
this season over the Wildcats the Jayhawks own the head-to-head tiebreaker.

Texas Tech, meanwhile, sits in ninth place at 3-13 in Big 12
play, ahead of only last-place TCU.

In the first meeting this season between these two teams
Kansas held Tech to 35 percent shooting from the floor in picking up a 60-46
victory in Lubbock back on Jan. 12. But the Raiders actually only trailed by a
bucket at the half, and eventually covered the spread as 17-point home
dogs.

Raiders-Jayhawks,
Statistically Speaking

On the season Texas Tech is shooting 42.5 percent from the
floor, just 29 percent from 3-point land and 66 percent from the FT line. So to
put it lightly, the Raiders are having some problems at the offensive end of
the court.

Defensively Tech is allowing opponents to shoot 46 percent
from the field, and getting out-rebounded by about two boards per game.

Kansas, meanwhile, is shooting 47 percent from the field, 37
percent from long range and 72 percent from the line. The Jayhawks are also holding foes to just 35
percent shooting, and they're out-rebounding opponents by almost seven per
game.

Raiders-Jayhawks
Betting Trends

Texas Tech is 1-7 straight-up and 2-6 ATS on the road this
season.

Kansas is 15-1 SU and 9-6 ATS at home.

Raiders games have averaged 138 total points this season.

Jayhawks games have averaged 136 points.

Raiders-Jayhawks Free
Pick

The last five times these teams have met in Lawrence Kansas
has beaten Texas Tech by 34, 58, 26, 12 and 33 points. That's an average margin
of victory of almost 33 PPG. Why would Monday be any different? The Raiders
sure aren't going to shoot 62 percent from the floor against the Jayhawks, and
Kansas has the added motivation of trying to impress the pollsters, in its
quest for a top seed in the upcoming NCAA tournament. So while we don't like
giving up three touchdowns, for this game we don't see any other option.

Free NCAA Basketball Picks: Take the Jayhawks at the -24.5 points offered at 5Dimes.