This blog is intended to provide the reader with important world news with an emphasis on Middle East and North Africa. It will publish news, analyses, comments, and opinions concerning those two regions. However, We welcome any comments, news or opinions which are related to their countries. You can visit too www.asswak-alarab.com for more information.

Sunday, September 4, 2011

Syria Scenarios

By Walid M. Sadi

Six
months or so into the Syrian uprising, there are two possible scenarios that
can emerge: the total crushing of the “Intifada” or further escalation of the
Syrian insurgency that could turn into an armed conflict.

The
chances for the first scenario to succeed depend first and foremost on the
continued support Russia extends to the Syrian government. Moscow is capable of
blocking any resolution that would legitimise an armed intervention from
outside Syria to support the opposition.

Moscow
is expected to maintain its unconditional support for the Syrian regime for
political reasons - it views Syria as a strategic ally in the Middle East.

Russia
is on record as supporting reforms in Syria, but under no circumstances would
it tolerate a change of regime. The Russian leadership is also concerned about
the huge stockpile of sophisticated chemical weapons in Syria’s possession.

Damascus
is reputed to hold one of the biggest stockpiles of these weapons of mass
destruction in its arsenal.

Russia
is afraid that these weapons may fall into the wrong hands if there is a regime
change in the country. Accordingly, a dramatic change in Russia’s on Syria’s
stances does not appear to be in the cards for as far as one can see.

The
second scenario, projecting a rise of militancy among the opposition in Syria,
cannot be ruled out altogether.

Nations
of the world were unable to get a UN Security Council resolution condoning an
armed intervention to stop the deadly crackdown on protesters and the rapid
rise in violence on both sides. The situation in Syria may turn worse, with
both sides increasing their reliance on violence to influence the course of
events.

The
inescapable conclusion is that the situation in Syria is still too fluid and
volatile to make a sound guess as to where Syria could be heading.

The
Baath Party that rules Syria is no novice when it comes to dealing with
challenges, both from within and from without the country. Its continued
dependence on arguments about sovereignty rights and the principle of
non-interference in the internal affairs of countries may run out of ammunition
in the face of contemporary jurisprudence, which says that sovereignty no
longer exists in absolute terms but rather in relative terms.

When
nations become members of the UN and state parties to international
conventions, they automatically surrender some of the attributes of their
sovereignty.

UN
member states can now be monitored by international mechanisms by virtue of
their ratification of international norms, and Syria is no exception.

It
is still within the capability of Damascus to change the game by developing a
clearer vision of where it wants to go. The destiny of Syria still lies in the
hands of the ruling regime if it decides to behave in an enlightened manner.

About Me

I graduated from the French University in Beirut (St Joseph) specialising in Political and Economic Sciences. I started my working life in 1973 as a reporter and journalist for the pan-Arab magazine “Al-Hawadess” in Lebanon later becoming its Washington, D.C. correspondent. I subsequently moved to London in 1979 joining “Al-Majallah” magazine as its Deputy Managing Editor. In 1984 joined “Assayad” magazine in London initially as its Managing Editor and later as Editor-in-Chief. Following this, in 1990 I joined “Al-Wasat” magazine (part of the Dar-Al-Hayat Group) in London as a Managing Editor. In 2011 I became the Editor-In-Chief of Miraat el-Khaleej (Gulf Mirror). In July 2012 I became the Chairman of The Board of Asswak Al-Arab Publishing Ltd in UK and the Editor In Chief of its first Publication "Asswak Al-Arab" Magazine (Arab Markets Magazine) (www.asswak-alarab.com).

I have already authored five books. The first “The Tears of the Horizon” is a love story. The second “The Winter of Discontent in The Gulf” (1991) focuses on the first Gulf war sparked by Saddam Hussein’s invasion of Kuwait. His third book is entitled “Israeli-Palestinian Conflict: From Balfour Promise to Bush Declaration: The Complications and the Road to a Lasting Peace” (March 2008). The fourth book is titled “How Iran Plans to Fight America and Dominate the Middle East” (October 2008) And the fifth and the most recent is titled "JIHAD'S NEW HEARTLANDS: Why The West Has Failed To Contain Islamic Fundamentalism" (May 2011).

Furthermore, I wrote the memoirs of national security advisor to US President Ronald Reagan, Mr Robert McFarlane, serializing them in “Al-Wasat” magazine over 14 episodes in 1992.

Over the years, I have interviewed and met several world leaders such as American President Bill Clinton, British Prime Minister Margaret Thacher, Late King Hassan II of Morocco, Late King Hussein of Jordan,Tunisian President Zein El-Abedine Bin Ali, Lybian Leader Moammar Al-Quadhafi,President Amine Gemayel of Lebanon,late Lebanese Prime Minister Rafic Hariri, Late Palestinian Chairman Yasser Arafat, Haitian President Jean Claude Duvalier, Late United Arab Emirates President Sheikh Zayed Bin Sultan Al Nahyan,Algerian President Shazli Bin Jdid, Jamaican Prime Minister Edward Siyagha and more...