Venezuela military to play central power broker

FILE - In this Oct. 20, 2011 file photo, Venezuela's President Hugo Chavez speaks to soldiers in La Fria, Venezuela. With Chavez now knocked low by a stubborn cancer and the future of his government in question, the armed forces may not be so prepared to hold the country together this time. A former military officer and several experts said the president’s five-week absence has created a gaping hole at the top of the chain of command, one that the governing duo of Vice President Nicolas Maduro and National Assembly President Diosdado Cabello has proven incapable of filling. (AP Photo/Fernando Llano, File)
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FILE - In this Oct. 20, 2011 file photo, Venezuela's President Hugo Chavez speaks to soldiers in La Fria, Venezuela. With Chavez now knocked low by a stubborn cancer and the future of his government in question, the armed forces may not be so prepared to hold the country together this time. A former military officer and several experts said the president’s five-week absence has created a gaping hole at the top of the chain of command, one that the governing duo of Vice President Nicolas Maduro and National Assembly President Diosdado Cabello has proven incapable of filling. (AP Photo/Fernando Llano, File)
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"There exists a group of soldiers ... where what's totally and absolutely important is the army," Carratu said. "It's where there isn't visible authority."

Another question complicating any transition is a 125,000 person-strong civilian militia that the Chavez government has cultivated as a shadow army defending his programs. San Miguel estimated that about 30,000 of them could be considered armed combatants.

Under the command of a Chavez-appointed army general, the militia represents "a threat to the civilian population that decides to protest peacefully," she said.

At least for now, the military appears to be playing its historic part by ensuring peace, said Diego Moya-Ocampos, a political analyst with the London-based economic consultancy IHS Global Insight.

"In the current scenario of weak institutions in Venezuela, the armed forces plays a role of a sort of constitutional police that guarantees the constitution and the democratic process," Moya-Ocampos said. "The military is committed to political stability and to the Venezuelan Constitution."

"There are tensions behind the scenes but not strong enough yet to fragment the armed forces."

San Miguel, however, suggested the military simply may be waiting until the president's departure to make any move, as are all the players in Venezuela's post-Chavez chess game.

When will it finally reveal its plans? "Not until there's a real alternative of power," San Miguel said.