Abbott claws back Turnbull’s lead

Tony Abbott may be on track to lead the Coalition to victory on September 14 but a majority of voters would still prefer Malcolm Turnbull to be at the helm.

The latest Australian Financial Review/Nielsen Poll shows 58 per cent prefer Mr Turnbull as Liberal leader, compared with 35 per cent for Mr Abbott. However, Mr Abbott has made some inroads on the man he vanquished in December 2009. When the question was last asked in September, Mr Turnbull led Mr Abbott by 63 per cent to 30 per cent.

Mr Turnbull has also lost the majority support of Coalition voters. This support has fallen 8 percentage points to 45 per cent since September, while support among Coalition voters for Mr Abbott has risen 7 points to 52 per cent. Mr Turnbull is preferred by 74 per cent of Labor voters. When asked whether the Liberal Party should change leaders, 51 per cent of voters said yes and 46 per cent said no.

With Labor in dire trouble in the polls and the Liberal Party disciplined, there is little prospect of Mr Turnbull taking over. The only scenario is if Labor replaces Julia Gillard with Kevin Rudd and there is a rapid reversal in Labor’s fortunes.

Even so, analysts on both sides believe that if Mr Rudd were to take over, he would rush to an election, leaving the Coalition no time to change. And given Mr Abbott saw off Mr Rudd as leader in 2010, the Coalition is confident Mr Abbott can beat him in an election. The Coalition has prepared an election campaign in case Mr Rudd takes over.