There is a twenty-horse field loaded with possibilities, and this race has so many variables it’s going to be tough.

The California horses won’t do as well if it rains, and there is a possibility of thunderstorms.

It seems there’s always a trainer who thinks his Filly is good enough to beat the boys and this year is no exception. Devil May Care is a quick little Filly who if they let her control the race could steal it, but that’s not going to happen. Here’s the way the race shapes up:

Paddy O' Prado has the best early speed, but not enough stamina to go all the way, but he will contribute to a fast early pace, and set this up for a closer. Super Saver, Stately Victor, Mission Impazable, and the Filly Devil May Care are the other early speed runners.

The battle up front will be fierce, and when the smoke clears watch for a Calvary charge in the last eighth of a mile – that’s down the stretch.

When the early speed spits the bit what then? Well as the race nears the far turn – the turn for home – the field will compress. The challengers who sat back: Dublin, Awesome Act, Dean's Kitten, will be moving.

So who is going to win? It’s a close call between Dublin who is peaking just in time for the big race, and Awesome Act is also peaking.

Dublin's purchase price of $525,000 is the highest paid for any of these. The key will be the trip he gets.

Awesome Act is also peaking, and despite trouble in both his starts this year he won one, and ran a heck of a race in his last start.

This one can handle the kind of traffic and unexpected trouble that a big Derby field will exhibit, plus he can get all the marbles in the last twenty yards!

Dean's Kitten at 50-1 is the sleeper and a must use in the exotics.

Awesome Act has the physical ability and the frame of mind to take this. His Morning Line odds are 10-1, but I expect he’ll get bet to 4-1, or 5-1, and I say he’ll be the last horse standing.

In the exotics I’m keying Awesome Act over Dublin, Dean's Kitten, Stately Victor, and truthfully I may add one or two others at the last minute in the Trifecta.

My saver bet will be Awesome Act and Dublin in an Exacta box, and Dublin with Awesome Act Dean's Kitten and Stately Victor in the Trifecta for a whopping payday!

So there you have it Kentucky Derby fans, The 136th Kentucky Derby in a nut shell.