UFC 169: Preview, Predictions & Picks

The annual UFC Super Bowl weekend card takes place this weekend at the Prudential Center in Newark, New Jersey, very close to the Super Bowl site at Metlife Stadium in East Rutherford, New Jersey on Sunday, for UFC 169. The card is headlined by two title fights, as Renan Barao defends his UFC Bantamweight Title against Urijah Faber and Jose Aldo defends his UFC Featherweight Championship against Ricardo Lamas, and the rest of the card is also stacked with excellent fights. I am coming off of an excellent performance at UFC on Fox: Henderson vs. Thomson, going (8-3) overall, and I hope to keep that momentum rolling this weekend, so let’s get to the picks:

Jamie Varner (21-8-2) vs. Abel Trujillo (11-5-1) – Lightweight Bout – Jamie Varner is taking this fight on short noticed, replacing Bobby Green, in a bout between two men with knockout power. Trujillo is (2-1-1) in four fights in the UFC, his lone loss coming to the unbeaten Khabib Nurmagomedov, and he has proven to have the ability to finish fights or go the distance. To me this fight comes down to which Jamie Varner shows up, the man who knocked out Edson Barboza in the first round, or the man who has lost two of this last three fights in the UFC. Varner has been in several big fights in the past, while this is Trujillo’s first fight on the main card, so it is a major step up in competition for Trujillo. I think that if this fight goes the distance, Trujillo will get the win based on volume, but I expect a motivated Jamie Varner to come out swinging and get win by knockout. THE PICK: Jamie Varner By TKO In The First Round

John Lineker (23-6) vs. Ali Bagautinov (12-2) – Flyweight Bout – I have been very impressed with Ali Bagautinov since his UFC Debut, the former Sambo world champion is (2-0) since joining the UFC, and he is currently on a nine fight winning streak overall. In his UFC debut Bagautinov knocked out Marcos Vinicius in the third round, and in his second fight he dominated Tim Elliot, winning a unanimous decision. John Lineker is on his four fight winning streak of his own, the heavy handed Brazilian only has one loss in the UFC, losing to Louis Gaudinot in his debut. Before his loss to Gaudinot, Lineker was on a thirteen fight winning streak, so he has only lost once in his last eighteen career fights. Lineker could end this fight at any time with his powerful hands, but in an upset, I think the highly decorated international competitor Bagautinov will dominate Lineker with his wrestling and win a decision in one of the most exciting fights on this card. THE PICK Bagautinov By Decision

Frank Mir (16-8) vs. Alistair Overeem (36-13-1) – Heavyweight Bout – To legendary MMA Heavyweights square off, as arguably the best heavyweight submission grappler of all-time Frank Mir takes on arguably the best heavyweight kickboxer of all-time Alistair Overeem, with their careers in the UFC on the line. Frank Mir has lost three fights in a row (Junior dos Santos, Daniel Cormier, Josh Barnett) and Alistair Overeem has lost twice in a row (Travis Browne, Bigfoot Silva) been suspended for use of banned substances, so the loser of this fight could be cut from the UFC roster. Alistar Overeem has looked great right out of the gate in each of his last two fights, but has quickly gassed, and eventually got knocked out each time. Mir’s best chance is to immediately dive for a leglock on Overeem, or attempt to weather the initial storm, and hope that Overeem gasses again. I just have a lot of trouble envisioning Mir beating Overeem, I do not think that he will survive the initial Overeem offensive surge, and expect Overeem to win this fight quickly by TKO. THE PICK: Overeem By TKO In The First Round

Ricardo Lamas (14-2) vs. (c) Jose Aldo (23-1) – UFC Featherweight Championship Bout – You can make an argument that Jose Aldo is the best pound-for-pound MMA fighter on the planet today, his only career loss came to Luciano Azevedo in 2005, and since he has won sixteen fights in a row including a perfect (5-0) in the UFC. There is a lot of speculation that this will be Aldo’s final fight at Featherweight, and that win or lose he will move up to the lightweight division, where he will immediately get a title shot in a super fight against Anthony Pettis. I have been extremely impressed with Ricardo Lamas as of late, he on a four fight winning streak, and one of those wins being an incredible submission victory over the red hot Cub Swanson. I think that Ricardo Lamas has an excellent future in the featherweight division, and has a shot at holding UFC gold, but that will be once Aldo is competing at lightweight. Also trains with Renan Barao, who is co-main-eventing this card with him, and I expect the two Brazilian champions to motivate each other on Saturday night. I think that Aldo will come out with his usual nasty leg kicks, which will take away the quickness of Lamas, and expect him to defend the Featherweight Title successfully one last time with punches before moving up to Lightweight. THE PICK: Winner And Still UFC Featherweight Champion Jose Aldo By TKO In The Second Round

Urijah Faber (31-1-1) vs. (c) Renan Barao (31-6) – UFC Bantamweight Championship Bout – Urijah Faber has done it all in MMA, except for one last major accomplishment, holding UFC gold which he will have a chance to check off of his bucket list on Saturday night. Renan Barao was supposed to defend his title against a returning Dominick Cruz, but Cruz was again forced out of action with an injury, and was replaced by Faber. These two met before at UFC 149 on July 21st 2012, with Barao beating Faber to win a unanimous decision to win the UFC Interim Bantamweight Championship. Since that loss Faber is unbeaten, winning four fights in a row, and forcing himself back into the title picture. Renan Barao lost his first career MMA fight in April of 2005, and has not loss since, compiling an incredible record of (31-0-1) including a perfect (6-0) in the UFC. Barao has absolutely no weaknesses in his game, he is so well rounded, and I think that he will dominate Faber both standing and on the ground, Faber will tough it out but when the final bell rings Barao will have convincingly won a decision. THE PICK: Winner And Still UFC Bantamweight Champion Renan Barao By Decision