End of TV?

The days of television mightn't be numbered but they're looking problematic. Fewer people seem to be watching as there is so much else to do.

Two years ago, Rupert Murdoch announced that the days of big profits for traditional broadcast TV were over. Part of the problem is the sheer fragmentation of the audience. The other part is that advertising dollar has evaporated from a combination of the recession and technological alternatives. Rupert Murdoch's outgoing top executive Peter Chernin says that the Web will cannibalise the TV industry by drawing away viewers and advertisers. And now the evidence suggests it's getting worse. TV might not be on its way out but it is looking increasingly marginalised. It's gone from being an absolute necessity to something that many could live without.

Some interesting data from the Pew Research Centre in the United States found that only 52% of the public now sees television as a necessity and only 38% of those aged 30 and younger say it's a necessity. There is also a decline in preferences for satellite and cable television services, although that's less apparent than it is for broadcast television.

One reason is the fragmentation. People are now a lot busier and doing other things. And they're spending more time on the computer. The study leaves open the question of whether the love affair with TV has ended because of the recession or the appeal of new computers.

The other interesting part about this research is that high tech devices like mobile phones are recession proof with about half the sample saying these devices are necessities. It's a different story to what's happening with TV.

The Economist makes the point that the broadcasting industry is a sector that's heavily in decline. The trouble, it says, is there is more choice. As a result, broadcast channels are "just items on a menu containing hundreds of dishes." And with so much choice around, mediocre and formulaic television will struggle to capture a big audience. It's a story that might easily apply to other sections of the media.

As The Economist says: "Television producers will find new markets abroad. But the good times appear to be over. Sometimes an industry can withstand pressure for many years, and then collapse abruptly. Just ask a newspaper proprietor."

Writing in Portfolio.com, Mark Harris says broadcast TV can survive but it will have to change its business model. That means, for a start, becoming a lot more niche focused.

"The good news for networks is that it may be possible to stop the bleeding,'' Harris writes. "The bad news is that the patient can't be cured. For 50 years, pop culture has moved in only one direction--toward more options, fewer mass phenomena, and greater consumer control. And there's no turning that around, especially with a generation of viewers that sees no meaningful distinction between a broadcast network and a cable channel. What that means isn't just the end of a few old business models, but the end of TV as we've known it."

Have your viewing habits changed? Do you watch more or less television now? If you're watching less, why? And what can be done to save the industry? If not, what would take its place?

Posted by Leon GettlerMay 6, 2009 7:00 AM

LATEST COMMENTS

TV is losing by not producing innovative serials, most of them are reality tv shows. And almost all of them want to portray normal life situations as extraordinary dilemma, or a life and death situation. All this is okay for a short time but gets boring eventually... And hence lesser numbers think that TV is a good alternative for entertainment.

Posted by: Allie on May 7, 2009 3:25 PM

It's actually quite hilarious: the broadcast networks shut down or outsourced pretty much all of their drama, documentaries and serious current affairs production, in order to maximise profit on the cheap and nasty content from overseas (along with a dash of cheap and nasty panel shows to make up Australian content quotas).

Now they find themselves in a position where increasing numbers of people are bypassing their shonky scheduling practices (if the networks even screen viewers genre preferences at all) and using the Internet, DVD shops or niche cable channels to fill their viewing desires more reliably.

Frankly, they've dug their hole and soon they'll be buried in it. By closing down their in-house content production, they've opted out of all the long term revenues media production guarantees. Just think of the millions the BBC rakes in annually out of the sale of their TV series of the 60s, 70s, 80s and 90s: everything from Doctor Who to The Goodies to Dad's Army to Keeping Up Appearances. Then, of course, add the big bucks on recent shows. The daft loonies.

Posted by: Pete from Perth on May 7, 2009 10:38 PM

I've watched less and less TV over the years as so-called Reality TV has taken over. I hate that crap, I really loathe it, and I loathe all these talent shows too. In the past there might have been half a dozen shows a week I looked forward to, at the moment there is only 2 that I actually make an effort to watch weekly. So TV has definitely contributed to it's own demise to some degree (in my eyes) but no doubt that increases in computer usage, and more importantly download speeds, has meant people can choose to watch stuff on the net instead.