It’s looking less likely that Matthew will track into the Gulf of Mexico right now, but it can’t be absolutely guaranteed just yet. We’re still talking about a 5-7 day forecast that is highly uncertain.

Just curious but I am noticing the models while not set in stone appear to be trending nearer and nearer to the carolinas. Do you happen to have any take on this and any percentages yet? Love your analysis ans really enjoy this site

Levi, why does it appear that the current Recon on your site is showing less of a purple (64+ kt) wind field than the one last night? Yet the pressure is way down and people are saying it’s strengthening?

Based on wind alone, didn’t it appear stronger last night? Or is there a difference in flight elevation? Or should we not be focused at just how much breadth of 64+ kt wind there is right now?

One potential reason is that the plane in there right now is flying at a higher level (700 mb) than the earlier missions, and the wind may be slightly weaker at that level right now. Indications are that near-surface winds continue to increase gradually.

Just found your site and love the way you explain everything. I understand so much more about why these storms track the way they do. Just wish your posts were every 12 hours instead of just once a day. And “GO GATORS!”