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Saturday, November 13, 2010

I'M NOT BUYING IT

The general consensus now appears to be that all asset classes have put in an intermediate top and that the dollar has made an intermediate bottom. I jumped to that conclusion myself the other day. After further consideration I'm not buying it any more for several reasons.

First, the cyclical structure of the stock market is not set up for an intermediate top unless we are on the verge of another 2 month horror show like we saw this summer. I don't think for a second that with another 900 billion scheduled to be thrown at the market, of which 110 billion will come in the first month, that we are going to see the market roll over into an extended correction during the traditionally bullish Christmas season.

The intermediate gold and dollar cycles also aren't set up for an intermediate top. Ever since March of `09 the Fed's QE programs have stretched cycles, not caused them to contract. Here are the last 5 intermediate gold cycles.

Every single one of them has run long except one and that one was followed by a very stretched 30 week cycle. If the current cycle follows the pattern of the last two years then it's too early to expect an intermediate top, and the current correction is nothing more than the normal move down into a daily cycle low. Once that bottom is in place (possibly sometime next week) it should be followed by one more daily cycle higher before putting in the larger degree intermediate top.

But more importantly the dollar cycle is way too short to be looking for an intermediate bottom. In order for stocks and gold to form an intermediate top we would need to see the dollar form an intermediate bottom.

You can see in the above chart that the Fed's monetary policy has led to normal to slightly stretched dollar cycles also. The current cycle would have to have bottomed on the 13th week. This would also have to correspond to the yearly cycle low.

Now what are the odds of a yearly cycle low, a major bottom, being put in above 74, in a shortened cycle, with sentiment never hitting true bearish extremes? (The recent public opinion poll had bulls at 29% and I've seen it as low as 22% at prior yearly cycle lows) Pretty slim in my opinion.

There is no question the dollar is now in the grip of the three year cycle decline and in the beginning stages of a currency crisis. That being the case I seriously doubt the dollar will be able to move significantly above major resistance at the 80 pivot. It's already half way there now. If this is an intermediate bottom the rally is about to hit a brick wall that I have serious doubts it will be able to penetrate for more than a day or two, if at all.

Far more likely in my opinion that the dollar rally will fail at 80 and roll over into the natural timing band for an intermediate cycle low sometime in mid to late December. This should drive stocks and gold higher into December before finally rolling over into intermediate degree corrections in January or early February.

Finally, to top it off, we still haven't seen the large selling on strength day or days that occur at virtually all intermediate tops. Until we see signs that big money is sneaking out the back door I'm going to assume the intermediate rally is still intact.

By the way, my good friend Doc, who most of you are familiar with either from his blog or from the insightful comments he posts in the SMT comments area, has offered a discounted rate for his newsletter to SMT readers. You can go here to take advantage of his offer thru Thanksgiving weekend. He might even buy me a chicken burrito or two if you sign up ;-)

165 comments:

It also seems that too many people were picking a bottom for the dollar going into this bounce. How common is it for that many people to be right, the first time?

More likely is that it's bounced just enough to convince the crowd of a major bottom, and then crush them with a further fall into that bottom. Like we saw last year when there was bottom picking going on for months.

I'm confused about your timing. You say the dollar should form an intermediate bottom in mid December but that gold will go into an intermediate decline in January or February? Wouldn't the intermediate bottom in the dollar in December coincide with an intermediate top in gold or are you thinking there will be a lag (or am I just reading this incorrectly)?

Also, do you still expect gold to go over the big $1600 by this point so big money can get out by getting everyone excited about a big round number being surpassed?

Well said, though I would note two things: 1) it is not necessary for stocks to enter an intermediate decline just because the dollar is forming a new intermediate cycle, so I don't buy the reverse argument that since stocks are not entering an intermediate decline, then the dollar cannot be in a new intermediate cycle; 2) The dollar is bouncing off a major support level, namely the 3-year cycle trend line. I don't see why DX 74 should necessarily be favored over this major trend line as a place to find an intermediate low.

Considering that everyone in the world was talking about the destruction of the dollar on the heels of the Fed's new counterfeiting operation, and the DX was sitting on a major trend line, it seems to me that both technicals and sentiment were set up nicely for an intermediate low. After all, psychology is what cycles ultimately boil down to. In fact, bearish sentiment reached an extreme as the 3-year cycle trend line was violated during the week of the Fed meeting.

Finally, there is precedent for a dollar intermediate cycle running as short as 12 weeks, so I don't think an intermediate low can be dismissed simply because we are at Week 13. Furthermore, after a nearly vertical plunge from DX 88 to DX 76, seeing a cycle terminate 2 weeks short of the timing band is not so hard to fathom.

Fortunately, there is no need for conjecture on the issue. Gold tends to explode into intermediate tops, so one could quite safely buy the coming daily cycle low. If an intermediate peak is ahead, gold should surge out of the daily cycle low, and then one is on board. If the rise out of that low is tepid, then caution would be warranted.

Gary,I know you are not a fan of chart patterns and candle formations but that shooting star on Silver this week is about as good as it gets? My feed is showing increased volumes and with all this Silver market manipulation going on the big four banks that have an interest in lower silver prices seem to have drawn their line in the sand. If the bottom of that candle is broken I would expect the down move to gain some traction? Old cycles etc may not work in this new environment and the mark of a good trader is one who is willing to change his attack plans as circumstances also change. QE has never been attempted before and has skewed all markets - but with softs also showing similar price action it doesn't seem restricted to one asset class. Did you see this week's Economist on China buying USD via Yen? The Chinese have no real interest in seeing their largest held investment continue to fall - what if they have stepped in an bought USD? I think we may see a game changing event and the key will be what happens to usdyen - if that continues to rise then yen will be repatriated and it's 'risk-off' for a period. I would say the overall uptrend is intact in PMs but the market maybe 'too' long...

Grim,Cycles don't "fail" because human nature never changes. They can stretch or shrink though. The current stock market cycle has stretched. But yes we are obviously dropping down into a daily cycle low of that there is little question I just don't think it will turn into an intermediate cycle top until later in December.

If you check options on PM securities you can see the 'max pain' point (where the options pay the least) is lower, and gap-closing for a great many mining securities. In fact, for SLW, GLD, and GDX - some of the largest in the sector - the option 'max pain' is almost *exactly* at the gap closes for each!

I suspect those gaps *will* close on most of these securities next week, but in the MIDDLE of the week (the options writers can still make money by getting the price there and then closing or hedging from that point.)

I do NOT suspect, however, that we STAY at those gap-close prices by the end of next week. I have reasons to believe that next week will be an up week overall despite possible declines mid-week.

I'm going to continue to point out that while bullishness in the stock market may not be off the charts, complacency certainly is.

I measure complacency by using multi week averages of bullishness and bearishness. The 3,4, and 5 week averages are at recent record highs for the bulls, and the 3,4, and 5 week averages for the bears haven't been this low since 2005.

Yes it certinaly could although I doubt gold will drop below $1315. We won't sell if gold drops below $1315 anyway. That would be selling into a daily cycle low. Not the best strategy.

If $1315 is broken we would sell into the bounce out of the low. That bounce could take gold all the way back to $1375+ or like you said it might just be a curveball to knock everyone off and gold would then go on to make higher highs.

Gary, Now I want to make sure I have this right: maybe as high as $1600 in gold in December? Do I have that right (I really read your reports.I really do!) If I have that right any guesses for how high gold and the HUI may go this coming spring?

Shouldn't we be backing in the truck no matter what if we get a $1,315-$1,325 number next week? Why wait for DX 80 or a swing low when we either end up picking a perfect bottom for the final cycle or buy but end up violating $1,315 and then dump this extra stock on the way back up off that cycle bottom.

I've always planned on selling into the bounce if the stops where hit.

It's getting late in the daily cycle. To sell on a break of 1315 now would be to sell into a daily cycle low. Not the best strategy.

Triggering the stop just means the odds are high that an intermediate cycle decline has begun but I still don't want to sell into weakness. Much better to sell into strength and hopefully get a better exit as the dip buyers drive gold back up towards the highs even if they fail and gold rolls over into an intermediate correction.

Remember it's still a secular bull market so you are protected by the secular trend. So even if you don't time the exit perfectly and end up getting cuaght in the intermediate correction the bull is going to eventually rescue your position anyway.

Since 05 the vast majority of intermediate tops saw SoS days prior to the final top. In the last year or so it has tended to unfold as multiple smaller SoS days building up to a top.

I think with the Fed throwing 110 billion dollars at the market over the next month the odds are pretty small that we've put in a final top. Much more likely we get a stlightly stretched cycle that bottoms in Jan or early Feb. just like it did last year.

QE can't be priced into the market. It is fresh liqudity on an almost daily basis.

Mostly I don't think we have an intermediate top yet because the dollar cycle is too short and because the stock cycle has stretched. When you get a stretched stock cycle it doesn't turn lower and then head down for 3-4 weeks. It turns down and the cycle bottoms. The only way to get an extended correction would be for the next cycle to roll ver quickly, similar to what hhappened this summer.

That would entail a 2 month correction again as the entire next daily stock cycle would be moving lower.

I just don't buy it with the Fed throwing billions at the market, with no SoS days and with the positive seasonality.

I know it's a little tough to understand the cycles analysis but the current stock and dollar cycle structure just isn't setup for an intermediate top right now.

Well if you follow the rule you would exit as soon as the swing was negated.

But you seem to be implying that you have a much better entry strategy and that somehow it is able to spot final bottoms.

I would suggest that maybe that is so if you are data mining historical charts but in real time you aren't going to be able to spot final bottoms so you need some kind of mechanical entry with a priotective stop in case you are wrong.

I've given you one that works very well most of the time. The few times it doesn't work is when volatility expands rapidly during unusual market conditions. Easily avoided by just not taking the trade in those kind of conditions.

You do understand that if you are going to go down the treders path then you are going tpo have plenty of losing trades because you are adding a timing factor into your trade besides direction.

An investor only has to be right about direction. Very easy to do in a secular bull market.

A trader has to be right about direction and timing.

Is it any wonder most billionaires are investors not traders.

Basically by choosing to trade you have decided to block Lawrence Taylor instead of Tiny Tim.

Great exchange with Wes and Gary. Thanks guys. I have a slightly different take on the whole thing. I am actually more interested in small drawdowns than getting rich. I have plenty of money at this point and am not trying to become a billionaire. I am up 9% trading for the year on my entire net worth which is all liquid and available. My maximum drawdown from any high point to trough is just 1% (and admittedly at risk of more because I have held too much of my PM positions). I believe you have to do what you feel comfortable with because if you trade (or invest) someone else's way you'll never have the confidence and panic out at the wrong times. Market Wizards is full of guys with lots of different styles, each of whom has been superbly successful: traders, investors, etc. Having lost a ton as a youth ($600k in 6 months) I have probably become allergic to drawdowns. The markets can do anything and I accept that I never "know" that a bull market has not ended. I fault myself for not selling my PM's when they blew off last week. That's a pattern I usually short let alone not stay long after it occurs, but I was influenced by Gary and it was my fault. He has been extremely helpful (and educational) but I need to adapt his stuff to my style, which I will do from now on. And I also think his way is going to be best by far for most people as they have not spent most of their lives trading and learning to fight and control their emotions during volatility. I am short stocks as a hedge now and got OIH off just right and SPY off just right and AMZN off just right, so zero drawdowns in any of them. It is doable. My stop is now at break-even. I will double my PM positions if I get a good entry where I can place a sensible tight stop. Anyway, just wanted to share another way to look at it. I am looking forward to see what next week brings!

I'll take the stock bull because I understand it better and am much more comfortable with it.

I think the gold bull is based on a bunch of people thinking inflation is just around the corner. I don't believe that. I think a bunch of people have invested on mighty slim fundamentals.

It's true that commodities have gone up and we see producer price inflation. But those producers cannot pass those prices on to the end consumer in this weak market, so there is essentially no consumer price inflation, at least not nearly enough to support this gold price.

We'll see what happens when the plot unfolds.

I think you'll do fine because you're a great market timer. I'm not so sure about the vast majority.

I think the fundamentals behind the metals bull goes beyond inflation to a more insidious tendency for governments to devalue paper currencies. Although tightly related to inflation, it really goes beyond that to people losing faith in the ability of their governments to manage their debt loads, and maintain financial and civil stability. Gold and silver are protections against corrupt and/or incompetent leadership, and paper money that is being generated at an exponential clip. So, inflation or not, the threat of a currency crisis is what is driving the metals bull.

What would you buy if you were China and had most of your investment in US debt? I'd diversify. I'd protect myself from the US government's lack of integrity. I'd buy Gold and Silver, Water, and Grains, and Energy...and artillery.

My goodness how much better fundamentals do you need? Gold reserves are decreasing and virtually every government in the world is printing money. Bring up a 10 year chart of gold. That's exactly what a secular bull market looks like.

Now how much worse can the fundamentals for the stock market get? For 10 years now the stock market has been in a rollercoaster ride because the cyclical bulls have been driven by liquidity creation and bubbles instead of true productivity.

Now with inflation starting to swing into high gear again it won't be long before profit margins start to get squeezed and as soon as inflation rises enough to crush the consumer again like it did in 08 we will roll over into the next recession and the third leg down in the secular stock bear.

Why fight that and have to try and guess where the top is for small little gains when you can make giant gains by riding a bull market?

DG,It's easy to say after the fact that you should have sold the blow-off top but the reality is that miners were only 28% above the 200 DMA. That isn't even close to a blowoff top. Gold was 17% above the 200 DMA. Again not even close to a blow-off top.

If you are going to take profits everytime the market gets to this point because you assume it's a top you are going to miss a huge portion of the final run into the C-wave top.

You are up 9% for the year. Which isn't bad but most people that are old turkey are up 50% or more.

Another consideration is that since June the dollar has dropped over 11%. So in real purchasing power you have actually lost money. As a matter of fact if you price your cash gains in almost any commodity at all you have lost a lot of purchasing power this year.

Wes said; "I think the gold bull is based on a bunch of people thinking inflation is just around the corner. I don't believe that. I think a bunch of people have invested on mighty slim fundamentals."

The gold Bull has been going on since at least 2003. lets see who the "bunch of people" really are. Well we know it is not Joe Public in the USA. But it is Central Banks. It is billionaire investors all known to anyone who follows markets or investing. It is rich, and I mean Rich, old money throughout the world; the largest gold producing country in the world does not allow Gold to leave. thats china. Russia also stock piling. Do you really believe these people are buying Gold because of "inflation" or "mighty slim fundamentals"? Do you think they really are concerned with CPI? The things you speak about are exactly what the gold buyers I mentioned above want you to think.

So the better question is what do these folks know? It is going to suck for a lot of people when we have currency revaluation or outright new currency. And lest you think it won't happen just read history. The USA government has a very good track record of doing that over the last 70 or so years. I don't plan on having my wealth stolen/confiscated/transferred in any way to the scum who run the fiat monetary scam. But the game is up and the people and governments I mentioned before are preparing for it. So should you. That's why I have and will continue to investing in Gold/Silver.

Gary: I did not suggest selling because we got 28% percent over the 200 day moving average. I should have sold (as a non-Old-Turkey type) because we had a huge reversal on enormous volume. Doc sold for this reason and was right to do so. You are defining blow-off top differently than I am so you can't say "it was nowhere near a blow-off top." It certainly was a blow-off trading top. The amount above the 200 day line is relevant only for a long term guy like you. A trader looks at the reversal on giant volume. My style is to sell as it fights its way back into the reversal day range. Gold got to $1424, and closed at about $1390 that day. It then fought its way back into the range by getting to $1409. You sell in there somewhere and stop-buy at $1425. You risk missing a little, but avoid a big drawdown---with maybe more to come this coming week. I'd rather have the stop buy at $1425. Of course if you don't have the discipline to stop-buy back, well, than you are doing this style of trading poorly. Anything done poorly will lose. There are other ways to do it well, however.

DG,Gold had a key reversal on Oct. 8th that didn't end up being a top. It had one in early May that was a long way from being a top. It's easy to see in hindsight what one should have done, but virtually impossible in real time.

I don't think you need to beat yourself up because you didn't time the perfect exit. It could have just as easily been completely recovered and continued much higher and then you would now be patting yourself on the back at having made the right call.

In the end you may lose a week or two of time but unless the secular bull has expired you haven't lost any money and by holding your position you will guarantee you don't miss any of the ride higher.

I am merely talking about playing the odds, Gary. In October you'd have simply bought back in a few dollars higher. And May was a top (again you define top differently than I do. To me a top is "I'd have saved many thousands of dollars by side-stepping the ensuing decline" It's a tradable move). Nothing works all the time and pointing out cases where it doesn't work is not interesting. Generally speaking, if you have had a great run (which we did) and get a huge reversal on huge volume, you get a chance to buy in cheaper later. If not you stop yourself in as soon as the reversal is invalidated by a trade above the reversal day high. You miss some really nasty drawdowns this way, and not much upside. And i am not "beating myself up." I focus on my errors so I don't do them again. This was an error on my part and I will learn from it and treat it as such. In my mind and for my style, there is no excuse for me not selling at least 1/2 my position.

To each his own but it seems like you are doing a lot of work and racking up broker fees just for the privledge of losing purchasing power because the Fed is debasing the dollar faster than you can make money by trading.

And I'm guessing the PM part of your account is a significant part of that 9%.

Wouldn't it be nice to be up 50+% even if you had to weather a significant drawdown every once in a while?

Do you ever get the feeling I'm the dark side of your conscious trying to draw you down the investor path ;)

Yeah, I get that feeling. Darth Savage, that's you. Frankly, I have in fact come to have more respect for the power of a secular bull from you. I plan to try to meld that knowledge with my own trading style. And yes, of course, part of that 9% is PM stuff. But it's also from shorting the euro, shorting China, and long bonds. My broker fees are $5 a trade so no sweat there. And it's not work---I love trading.Thanks for the dialogue.

If Soros and Paulson, both in the 2010 top 20 richest people in America, are both, publicly, heavily invested in Gold, where is everyone else to this party?

You'd think all the big boys and rich would be in heavily, and I guess this could be the case, but it strikes me odd that gold can be said to still go to $5000-$10000 when these two are publicly huge advocates and have been for YEARS. Thoughts?

Actually the basis for my thinking that we haven't put in an intermediate top is grounded more in the stock market and dollar cycle than the gold cycle.

If one was to just look at the gold cycle, 15 weeks tells you nothing about where the top could be. It could have been last week and gold now has 7 to 10 weeks to drift lower. But the lack of SoS days and the short duration of the dollar cycle along with the current cyclical stucture of the stock market suggest that gold probably has one more leg up and the dollar one more leg down before final intermediate tops and bottoms are in.

First off don't bet the farm on $1600. We have no idea where another leg will take us until we get there.

For now we need to keep working stops below $1315 as that would indicate an intermediate decline has begun...although you don't want to sell immediately if $1315 gets taken out. I'll explain in tonight's report. $1315 is a mental stop and if triggered will put in play an alternate strategy.

For the record I doubt gold will even get close to $1315 but we need to be prepared just in case.

My expectation is that stocks and gold will put in a daily cycle low either this week or early next and then we will experience one more daily cycle higher in gold and stocks will trade higher for roughly half of it's next daily cycle before rolling over into an intermediate degree correction that will bottom sometime in Jan/Feb.

I also saw that MarketWatch article and just chuckled. It was good to see the continued skepticism, and the implication that it's a dangerously speculative asset that's getting ready to crush all the gold bugs. Gotta keep Johnny Retail on the sidelines as long as possible here so he can be crushed eventually (sadly, but inevitably).

Also the out of context quote of Soros. People have been willfully taking that statement out of context ever since he said it. It's ridiculous.

And then there's the quoting of the strangely bearish Jon Nadler of Kitco. Keep it coming guys!

I would expect some kind of minor bounce today after the heavy selling on Friday but it's pretty rare that a market will just turn around after that kind of selling pressure. Usually it will have to build some kind of base after the downside momentum is broken.

Pima, if I may: SoS is only useful for SPY (not DIA). Gary has studied it for other uses and has said SoS simply doesn't work for other ETF's or equities. I'm not sure why you want to focus on something that has been demonstrated not to work, but it seems to me there are so many possible indicators that one can drown in them. Looking at proven ineffective ones probably does not help cut down the info overload. At the least it may confuse some newer bloggers and/or force Gary to state it's ineffectiveness over and over, and he has been talking about having too much to do already.

Yes, you've said that before. But to me, all the etf's that track stocks indexes should carry some weight. DIA is an etf that tracks the DOW. Seems like you'd want to look at the total market, which would be DIA, SPY, IWM (russell 2000), and QQQQ at the very least.

I know what Gary has said, you've pointed that out before. But I can't see how DIA, QQQQ, IWM would not be part of the picture.

I also think it's not coincidence that we had 60 million of GLD on the SoS page right at the recent top.

O.K. Sorry for repeating it. One of the great things about Jason's sentimentrader site is that he says there are lots of things that "should" work, or seem to work, that don't. He tests everything. If you have the time and ability I'd love for you to analyze the historical data and educate us (I'm completely serious here). It would be great to find a new good indicator. Otherwise, though, it's just guess work and I'd never bet money on it. But I won't mention it again either way. Thanks.

Interesting. My trading stuff shows that the euro is very near a good tradable low. That would fit perfectly with the dollar topping and gold therefore rallying. I like it when I get independent confirmation.

For all those following the SoS and BoW. Be aware that Opex week can show some larger numbers that indicate Market Makers and funds squaring up their books for this option cycle. Take all signals with at least one grain of salt.

I'm confident we saw an intermediate low in the dollar (and not just because I have a burrito riding on the fact). We had dismal sentiment last week on the dollar (public opinion at 29% isn't the worst it's ever been, but it's pretty low), and the dollar bounced strongly off an important support: the 3-year cycle trend line. The buck even gave us a nice head fake below the 3-year cycle trend line before bouncing. It was the perfect psychological setup and bear trap for an intermediate low.

What happened, I believe, was that the Fed compressed the cycle by more or less announcing QE2 at the September FOMC meeting. The DX then plunged all the way into the November meeting when the formal announcement came.

One should also take note of gold miners bullish percent ($BPGDM), which reached over 93 last week! This reading has never been that high. I certainly don't want to be pushing leveraged bets with the miners stretched on the bullish side as never before. The PM complex is ready for a breather, which meshes well with the case for an intermediate low in the buck.

The good news is a shortened dollar cycle will very likely be followed by a stretched one. Once the new intermediate cycle rolls over, the buck will be plunging all the way into May... and the Fed's recent action will assure us the damage will be worse than it would have been otherwise.

DX 80 should certainly provide some resistance, but I have no idea if it will stop the current advance. In any case, I am going to pay more attention to gold. As Gary always says, cycles are more useful for spotting lows than highs.

The fact that the dollar continues up and silver made a lower lower just now (from this morning) helps confirm that gold hasn't bottomed yet either. A gold bottom looked possible this morning from my work, but not now.

I wanted to renew my position that I sold out of the day after the slamdown.

I filled a partial today and think this stock will not fall below $5.50 , itra-day capitulation selling now...so I wanted in , because when this thing bottoms and rockets up , I would be buying back in where I sold it $6.50 area.

2yr chart has a doublebottom cup/pan and handle breakout with volume. ..and not much overhead resistance once it gets going.

We have all, of course, been wondering how long the fed is allowed to run autopilot on this thing before something happened. Well..perhaps it is now. These are real people with real power starting to grumble.

Bears watching. It could change the game, if only for a while. (Yes..ultimately the US/dollar is toast - one way or other. Either through default or inflation. But still this can have an effect on the way to that end.)

when I look at UUP , it looks like a false rally, because I use volumes to analyze demand.

high volume = its real because it shows demand

the UUP was at this level 2x in October with A LOT more volume. 11miliion on Oct 19th and 15+million on Oct 27th,

So I dont see todays highs on 3million (so far at 3.37 p.m.) as legit. The dollar buying ( in my experience) is going to dry up , and sell off (In my humble opinion)and Gold, GDX etc is falling on mild volume , and selling will dry up , buying will return.

all this in harmony with Gary's call, he waits for the 'set up', but he stays in 'old turkey"...I trade a bit more, so I add my own analysis.

Although I believe this is just the Tea party element/sympathizers scoring some fresh points at the FED's expense, the lesson or point here is on asset allocation and risk. You just don't know what could come along and derail, suspend or even collapse this bull or precious metal rally.

I've heard the countless warnings not to use leverage, but at the same time people are "old turkey" and fully invested with every penny they own! I too want to squeeze every possible dollar out of this bull, but to be fully invested in one small and historically volatile asset class is seriously discounting risk.

my guess if anyone wants to bottom fish is to wait until at least GLD fills the gap @ $131.5 or when gold is trading $10 lower than it is now... no guarantees that it won't go lower, but likely a safer point for entry for those not willing to wait for the swing low, than right now... anyone care to chime in with their thoughts?

I definitely lose my edge when I ignore volume , especially on judging whether a break out is real or not. Just my experience..

I took a course on volume analysis in trading swing points and break outs and saw that it can be a reliable guide. Seriously, volume can come in and change the next day...thats what stops are for , but I have found what I was taught works very well.

I have read your posts, you seem to do well with your techniquies as well...i just add different tools to the toolbox and use as needed.

I got this email from a hedge frund trader friend of mine. What are your thoughts here as it pertains to the dollar and PMs?

– last Tuesday morning I emailed you to say we were reducing risk in the metals by 30-40%. Well we are reducing it further.

We are short USTSY’s in our macro strat and have been for two weeks…here is the story - higher yields are driving the $ higher which in turn is driving commodities lower, which will result in stocks correcting and adjusting to a higher interest rate environment.

I am not expecting risk to crash a la 2008 but simply use the irates as a trigger to correct what has been a good run…

We also got long $/yen a week or so back, and have added to that position today.

Historically a margin raise is always accompanied by a raid. They do this to cause margin calls, so its almost a given that silver will trade lower in the days to come. 2 margin raises within a week... Ive never seen that before.

Gaps & break out points all look riper than ever to be filled/tested. That silver & gold margin requirement should do the trick.

Now, will Gary or Doc be right about this move down. (daily or intermediate) Compelling arguments on both sides. The 20 day moving average fits nicely with all gap levels I'm showing, so that could be the game plan.

/DX I noticed the 60 EMA looks like good support/resistance. Trendline/channel top right there too.

I know this is a bit off the subject, but here's something to contemplate:

With the latest round of QE II, the Fed will have created 3 TRILLION dollars out of thin air. (QE I was for 2 trillion, QE II is for another trill.) Where has it gone and what has it done? Why, it's gone into stocks, bonds, and commodities markets and is helping to fuel yet another Fed-created asset bubble.

Now what if instead our Federal government had created that 3 trillion dollars out of thin air, what could we have done with that?

We could have spent 30,000 dollars on 100 million homes in America (probably all the homes in the US) to upgrade insulation and windows. That would have put all the out-of-work construction workers to work, given them all a salary, and we'd get energy efficient homes as a result, saving the country from importing billions of barrels of oil every year.

And that's just one example of how that money could have been used in a way that would benefit everyone.

Instead, we have insanity at the helm and the ship of state is in dire straits.

True, but that would be fiscal policy, otherwise known as "stimulus". It's politically unfashionable.

It would have been preferable to do what you're talking about, or better yet, to upgrade our highways and schools to remain competitive in the 21st century.

America doesn't do that anymore. China does.

It's generally understood that we have to make these kind of investments, but no one wants to pay for them. Americans want a free ride. So Bernanke (mis)uses monetary policy instead, which goes directly overseas in the form of commodity inflation.

The money did not go to anything useful for Americans, it was stolen by the criminals that caused the problem to begin with. Forget "fiscal stimulus is politically unfashionable", those are the words of a PC panzy. It will only get worse until the criminals hang.

I guess monetary stimulus is politically fashionable? As in, Americans have no choice because the Fed's monetary policy, being private banks, are accountable to nobody?

I guess helping poor Americans is unfashionable, while letting scumbags rob everybody is just something we should learn to deal with, eh?

The exchanges are raising margin requirements on gold and silver because they do not want accounts to blow out.

This is there way to protect themselves from small accounts that are over leveraged.

This is normal action taken by the exchanges when increased volatility enters the market.

With all due respect arron is 100% WRONG

"Historically a margin raise is always accompanied by a raid. They do this to cause margin calls, so its almost a given that silver will trade lower in the days to come. 2 margin raises within a week... Ive never seen that before."

Neither money printing nor some nonsensical insulation edict has any place in a free market economy. And there is nothing wrong with purchasing foreign oil. It is Neocon fantasyland that we should become self-sufficient in energy. Why not become self-sufficient in everything and close off the borders?

People should decide for themselves if they want to insulate their homes or buy new windows.

In any case so-called fiscal stimulus and money printing go hand-in-hand. Both are parts of the rotten Keynesian-socialist model. In order to continue on the path to greater debt the U.S. depends on the supression of interest rates and this requires the non-market based intervention of Fed bond purchases.

Japan was different because it could semi-coerce its citizens to purchase bonds at close to zero rates. In the U.S. we depend on foreign and now Fed purchases to support the bond bubble.

The big question is how the end game in the bond bubble will affect PMs. One hopes that real interest rates are still negative, i.e. inflation outstrips bond prices. But unlike the 1970s our measure of CPI is badly rigged so who knows how it will play out...... remember that Volker killed the PM bubble in 1980, but at least this time around the government is "on our side" trying to push rates in the other direction.

If we had a free market then I could do something more productive than chasing PM stocks.

Thanks for the feedback on the margin issue. It applies to shorts and longs but I would think the shorts have deeper pockets (especially the concentrated ones with the banks). Do we think this will positively or negatively impact the price of the metals. The last one seem to squeeze the shorts first and then the longs when we had that crazy $3 swing day.

This margin changes only affect under-capitalized traders. With the kind of swings we are seeing in SI/GC, these increase in margin is expected.

To set a context, the ES needs to move 110 points for your margin to be exhausted ($5500). Each $1 move in Silver is worth $5000. So a margin of $10K gets exhausted in a $2 move in silver! Silver is a lot more likely to have a $2 move than ES is in having a 110 point move.

If anyone is affected by these margin changes, they were horribly over-levered and were asking for it.

One thing you can depend on. Secular bull markets always go much further than anyone expects. The last bull rose from $35 to $850.A 24 fold increase. The current bull has gained a little over 4 fold. Do you really think a secular bull market will end after only gaining 400%.

Heck even oil gained 15 fold and that is a much larger more liquid market.

The bull will be over when we see the public pile in, not before. I also believe we will see a Dow:gold ratio of at least 1:1. It's currently 8:1.

This will be the greatest bull market that any of us will ever see in our lifetimes and it isn't going to end with a measely littel 400% gain.

My point had nothing to do with whether we have manipulated "free" markets or socialism. We have both, so deal with it.

My point was that the thieves at the Fed have stolen 3 trillion dollars from us and what did we get for it? Higher commodity prices and inflation across the board. Those of us who have above average intelligence AND have some funds to invest (2 out of 3 American households own no stock or their stock holdings are worth less than 10 grand.) can maybe benefit if we are willing to "invest" in the right commodity markets. Maybe.

For my money, I'd rather spend that 3 Trillion on something that would help us all. Insulate 100 million homes, upgrade our transportation systems, improve our schools, whatever. Just give us something real and some of lasting value for our money.

Moreover, part of the reason I wrote that comment about insulating 100 MILLION homes and spending 30 THOUSAND dollars on EACH ONE was to illustrate what a staggering sum 3 TRILLION DOLLARS IS!!

Hell, we'd all be better off if Uncle Ben just mailed out checks for 30 grand to every family in America. I'd rather see that than the legal robbery that he's pulling off.

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Soros Fund Management LLC, headed by George Soros, increased gold positions during the third quarter, according to a regulatory filing late Monday. Soros held 4,697,008 shares of the SPDR Gold Trust

I think some of you are misunderstanding exactly what QE is. It is not taxpayer money. It is currency, printed by the federal reserve, to give to the banks in exchange for their financial weapons of mass destruction. one purpose is so the banking buddies can use the new money to create new credit,ie inflation, as well as keep the price of US treasuries in an acceptable range to achieve their monetary targets( and keep interest on the debt low, -devalued currency while keeping debt service at zero, making nominal debt smaller is a brilliant strategy...as long as your creditors keep going along with it.) But make no mistake this is really about helping the banks, not the people. I am not suggesting this is a good thing. Now government printing and spending 3 trillion dollars by either giving it to people directly or spending on infrastructure would most likely be more inflationary. In theory the FED will withdraw the QE over time as it sells the assets, not so with the Fiscal model of printing and then you certainly end up with a currency that "will not be worth a Continental"

If we really want to solve the problems, it means the American public as a whole better get ready for a 3-5 year haircut..no make that a buzz cut. Everyone. And banks and bad financial institutions have to fall. federal and state budgets must be cut to provide the only the needed services. Dispassionately one could slash trillions from federal and state budgets over the next 5-10 years. Those savings could go to debt reduction and infrastructure. but I just don't see the people having the stomach for that right now. Shoot we're dropping billions on infrastructure in Iraq and Afghanistan (after we blew it up first- f*&king genius of a plan isn't it? Oh but we're all safe from the bogey man, now get in line, take off your shoes and let me shove this new device up your rectum America..cause you love it.- ) which doesn't seem to bother the American people too much...yet. Where's Andrew Jackson.

Todd,Gold would need to trade above $1376.60 and also hold above $1356.20 to form a swing today. The normal timing band for a swing low is still a couple of days away so I would guess we probably won't see a bottom until either late in the week or early next week.

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