A Simple Stat Forecast Of The First Round Of The NBA Playoffs

Chris Paul has never reached the conference finals in his career. But the regular season data says he has a good chance to win an NBA title. Of course, the regular season data can only suggest. It can't decide. (Photo by Tim Warner/Getty Images)(Photo by Tim Warner/Getty Images)

Can Stephen Curry, Kevin Durant, and the Golden State Warriors repeat?

Can LeBron James and the Cavaliers get back to the NBA Finals again?

Is this the year Chris Paul finally gets to the NBA Finals?

These are just some of the questions we have as the NBA playoffs begin today. Before these questions get answered, though, we have to get past the first round of the playoffs.

At this point, no one really knows who is going to win each series. That being said, we do have some information from the regular season about who we should expect to win. We should remember in looking at this data, though, that regular season data can only suggest who might win. Of course, the data can't decide.

That being said, let's look at what the data suggests. There are two simple pieces of data that matter in forecasting the playoffs: Team quality and home court advantage.

Team quality is clearly about who actually shows up to play. So, injuries are important and these need to be considered. But the assessment of any team's quality begins with the team's efficiency differential; or the difference between how many points a team scores per possession employed and how many points it allows per possession acquired. Wins and losses are of course important. However, how a team performs per possession seems to be a better indicator of what the team will do in the future.

The calculation of efficiency differential is simple. To illustrate, per game in 2017-18 the Toronto Raptors scored 111.7 points and employed 100.7 possessions. So, the Raptors offensive efficiency was 1.11 (or 111.7 divided by 100.7). On defense, the Raptors allowed 103.9 points per game. With 100.7 possession acquired, the Raptors defensive efficiency was 1.03 (or 103.9 divided by 100.7). This means that the Raptors efficiency differential -- or the difference between offensive and defensive efficiency per 100 possessions -- was 7.73. This mark led the Eastern Conference and was the best mark -- by far -- in Toronto franchise history.

Efficiency differential has been calculated for each team. For each series, the better team -- or the team with the highest efficiency differential -- should win. But home court advantage also helps. So, a weaker team can also win if it is playing at home. And once again, injuries also matter.

The Timberwolves were the last team to make the playoffs and this is the team's first appearance since 2004. So, Minnesota must be quite excited. Unfortunately, the Rockets are the best team in the NBA and the Timberwolves should not be expected to win a game. In sum, Chris Paul and James Harden are likely going to make sure the happiness in Minnesota isn't going to last very long.

The Spurs are amazing. This is their 21st consecutive season in the playoffs. While other teams hope to find success via the lottery, the Spurs skip all that and just keep winning. However, this year's version -- without Kawhi Leonard for most of it-- is the worst Spurs team this century. The Warriors at full strength are clearly a better team. But Stephen Curry -- the Warriors most productive player -- is not expected to play. So, this is not going to be easy for the Warriors. But the Warriors -- with home court advantage -- should prevail.

The Pelicans are the 6th seed in the West. But their efficiency differential -- despite having Anthony Davis on the roster -- says they are the weakest team in the Western Conference playoff. So, the Blazers win this series. However, there is some good news for Davis. It is likely he will win his first playoff game in his career. But he is probably going to have to wait to win his first playoff series.

The Thunder have the higher seed. And they have Russell Westbrook, Paul George, and Carmelo Anthony. So, if we look at seeding and star power, the Thunder should prevail. But the Jazz -- with Rudy Gobert -- are really the better team. So, once again, Carmelo Anthony is probably not getting past the first round of the NBA playoffs (something he has only done twice in his career).

This does not appear to be a very close series. Fun little fact about the Wizards: In their entire history the Wizards have never been as good as the Raptors this season. Yet another fun fact: As bad as the Spurs have been this year, the Spurs in 2017-18 are better than every team in Washington -- in terms of efficiency differential -- since the 1970s.

The Bucks are the only team in the playoffs with a negative efficiency differential. The Celtics, though, do not have Kyrie Irving anymore. Despite this loss, the Celtics should still be able to defeat the weakest team in the playoffs.

The Sixers enter the playoffs on a 16-game winning streak. This is impressive, but we should note that 13 of these wins came against non-playoff teams. Also, the three playoffs teams the Sixers beat were all at home. In sum, the Sixers should have been favored in all 16 games. The Heat will probably break the Sixers winning streak. But the Sixers will win the series.

Given these predictions -- and what we know about efficiency differential and home court advantage -- this is how the rest of the playoffs might unfold.

Second Round Predictions

Rockets over Jazz

Warriors over Trail Blazers

Raptors over Cavaliers

76ers over Celtics

Conference Final Predictions

Rockets over Warriors (this will be close, but the Rockets have home court advantage)

Raptors over Celtics

Final Prediction

Rockets over Raptors.

Obviously, all predictions after the first round have a problem. If the first round is wrong than what is suggested beyond that point can't happen.

That being said, the two best NBA teams were the Rockets and Raptors. If these teams do conquer their conferences -- as expected -- then the NBA Finals will very competitive. The Rockets are the slightly better team. But the Raptors really are very good. Once again, this is the best Raptor team in franchise history. Unfortunately, the Raptors would be facing the best Rocket team in Houston's franchise history.

Consequently, the data suggests that Chris Paul, James Harden, and company will win an NBA title in 2018. And when that happens, the data suggests that LeBron James, Stephen Curry, and Kevin Durant will be home watching. Of course -- as noted -- data can't decide. All of this is just a suggestion!

I am a professor of economics at Southern Utah University who has spent the last two decades researching sports and economics. I am the lead author of "The Wages of Wins" (Stanford Press, 2006) and "Stumbling on Wins" (Financial Times Press, 2010). In addition, I am the so...