gr8ful458 points·11 hours ago·edited 11 hours agoWithout going much into detail, I'd like to share this long term view with you.

"For 8 years I'm trading the multi-year cycles in this market. More than anything else I focus on market psychology. I use TA, FA and SA only to optimize my entries and targets. In short: each cycle, each top and each floor has its own character. Each cycle builds upon an earlier cycle.

Knowing the character and knowing the development path ahead can give incredibly detailed insights into what to expect next.

Looking at how we broke down from 6k compared to earlier huge break downs lets me assume that the market participants were prepared for such an event. They even anticipated it. No one even tried catching the knife. They just let it fall.

There was only one true capitulation event in BTC history and it was back in 2011. 2013 was a short lived capitulation event triggered by a shitty and lagging exchange which exaggerated every move. 2015 capitulation was forced by Mt. Gox and other exchange hacks. What seemed a "true" capitulation to most was the best buying opportunity for insiders ever.

After loading up in late 2011. I accumulated vast amounts in the first half of 2015. Back then BTC was still small. Some thought it was dead, but seeing the infight between all the fractions in the ecosystem made it clear, that they are fighting for something very valuable!

Back to our anticipated capitulation event of late 2018. I think there is no one seriously doubting anymore that cryptos are here to stay. That means a true capitulation event is (almost) impossible to occur after it already lost 84%. The only thing that can happen is media manipulation of the masses. But people seeing institutions adopt "blockchain" at every corner aren't stupid and won't give in easily. That said there is tremendous risk for market makers and whales to push price below a certain point, because they always have to factor in re-accumulation + ideally some margin for profits to make the effort worthwhile."

gr8ful458 points·11 hours ago·edited 11 hours agoWithout going much into detail, I'd like to share this long term view with you.

"For 8 years I'm trading the multi-year cycles in this market. More than anything else I focus on market psychology. I use TA, FA and SA only to optimize my entries and targets. In short: each cycle, each top and each floor has its own character. Each cycle builds upon an earlier cycle.

Knowing the character and knowing the development path ahead can give incredibly detailed insights into what to expect next.

Looking at how we broke down from 6k compared to earlier huge break downs lets me assume that the market participants were prepared for such an event. They even anticipated it. No one even tried catching the knife. They just let it fall.

There was only one true capitulation event in BTC history and it was back in 2011. 2013 was a short lived capitulation event triggered by a shitty and lagging exchange which exaggerated every move. 2015 capitulation was forced by Mt. Gox and other exchange hacks. What seemed a "true" capitulation to most was the best buying opportunity for insiders ever.

After loading up in late 2011. I accumulated vast amounts in the first half of 2015. Back then BTC was still small. Some thought it was dead, but seeing the infight between all the fractions in the ecosystem made it clear, that they are fighting for something very valuable!

Back to our anticipated capitulation event of late 2018. I think there is no one seriously doubting anymore that cryptos are here to stay. That means a true capitulation event is (almost) impossible to occur after it already lost 84%. The only thing that can happen is media manipulation of the masses. But people seeing institutions adopt "blockchain" at every corner aren't stupid and won't give in easily. That said there is tremendous risk for market makers and whales to push price below a certain point, because they always have to factor in re-accumulation + ideally some margin for profits to make the effort worthwhile."

I have been pondering on how much 2015-2016 matches 2019. I took daily data open/high/low/close and looked at the ratio of the two lows; 152 to 3122 (actually in Dec '18) which seems an obvious way to work.

Then I have tried to overlay on spreadsheets the same prices 'post the bottom', to see if there is any kind of a similar pattern. It didn't correlate on a daily basis enough (using the ratio as a factor) for it to be valuable - as it seems to be currently running lower. I shifted to looking at the same 'time frame', that is; correlating from mid Jan 19, rather than the December 18 low, but neither are close using the same ratio (although it is roughly the same amount 'out' if you zoom out).

The only conclusion I can make so far, is relevant to the above post. This is that the sharp final snap down didn't happen, so it follows there was not a sharp snap back up afterwards of the same order as last time.

So far the only thing to do to get a closer match has been to to change the 'ratio' I am using in % terms. This looks much closer in terms of matching the range of activity post bottom (on the tiny data set since). If this stays close for a while - it will simply mean we are heading for a curve with not as high a peak from the Dec 18 bottom in % terms.

I will try to tweak this over the coming months and see if it has any value, but if anyone else better at working this out wants to try - and can factor in more sophisticated statistical analysis (standard deviation etc.) that would be good...

With all due respect, why are we supposed to repeat prior flat mo for mo?

So far, at a macro level, it matches almost exactly. Don’t ask me why, I just work here.

Everyone expected a plunge in January because it would be the same as in 2015, but it happened in December instead, so not really almost exactly. I grant you that there is some similarity so far, but IMHO, this would go away soon.

One of the bigger differences will probably be that the next bull run won't be as much explosive as the previous ones. Otherwise Bitcoin would reach a ridiculous price... something I don't think will happen with just one single bull run. The curve must tend to gradually flatten. How much? Noone knows.

We keep declining above 80% (84-94%) after each peak, however, we increase smaller and smaller % in each cycle.This would result in a lower low after a couple of cycles. If the decreasing trend in X-factor increase of each peak (X36 to X17 to X8 to X3.76 to X1.77; bold numbers indicate what already happened) is followed by about 84% plunge each time, then btc would peak at about 595K and then starts declining with lower lows for both peak and trough each time 595K (peak) to 95K (trough), then 95K to 168K (peak), then 168K to 27K (trough), etc.

$595K? See? That's what I mean by a ridiculously high price for next bull run. Even if I would love to be wrong... that's not gonna happen.

Also I forgot to say that the next bear market I don't expect it to dump as hard as previous ones.

Of course we are just speculating here. We will find out "soon"... during the next couple of years, maybe three.

I will try to tweak this over the coming months and see if it has any value, but if anyone else better at working this out wants to try - and can factor in more sophisticated statistical analysis (standard deviation etc.) that would be good..

I think calculating the correlation coefficient will give you what you want. Expect it will be quite high.