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Sunday, October 6, 2013

In
regard to your recent post on inflation in the US – if you have not
already done so, you should visit the site “Shadow Government Statistics”. It is very enlightening on how the numbers are
manipulated.

Tommy

Thanks Tommy, shadowstats.com is a good
website to have a better idea of what real inflation, unemployment and other statistics would look like.

One of the dirty little
secrets behind the seemingly rock solid data used by governments is that the
criteria used can vastly change results. The way they do it today is... lets just say (lie is such an ugly word) more "convenient" than the method used just a few years ago.

For example, today an American that hasn’t
worked for the last year and isn’t actively looking for work is not considered
unemployed. Same goes for part time workers that are actively looking for full
time jobs, they aren’t considered unemployed either even if what they earn with
their part time job isn’t enough to make it till the end of the month.

We have Alan Greenspan (Chairman
of the Fed. Reserve from1987 to 2006) to thank for some of the most controversial changes
in which data is crunched, such as the use of “hedonic regression” in computing
its CPI so as to hide true inflation.

All data should be taken
with a huge grain of salt no matter how reputable the institution that came up
with may be. It is usually things like accumulated rumor and word on the street
that are truly a better indicator of what is really going on.

It is very interesting to
see how using pre 1990 and pre 1980 methodology, inflation almost is almost ten times the official rate and
unemployment is almost five times the official rate.

2 comments:

Entrepreneurs who run their businesses in break-even (or at losses) for years and rely on other sources of income also do not count in unemployment rate.In Greece, by a government decree, doctors, lawyers and engineers "by default" cannot be listed as unemployed unless they request to be deleted from their profesional register.Another trick is to keep a lenghty military conscription so as less young men appear as unemployed.On the other hand, many people who actually work moonlight are registered as unemployed to benefit from tax reductions and subsidies.

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