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January 5, 2010

With Short Contract, Beltre Betting On Strong Season

turned down more money from at least two teams -– he had a four-year offer early in free agency and then a three-year deal for roughly the same annual value as the deal the Red Sox offered -– but he chose Boston with an eye on having a big year for a contender and then hitting the market again next year.

This could be yet another case of a Boras "mystery team(s)" with sacks of money to burn, but I'm sure Boston's was not the only offer Beltre received. Either way, he should be extremely motivated to have a strong year -- he's rolling the dice on doing well and hitting the market again next winter.

Bottom line Theo has found the best way to balance short term and long term interests of the club. There looks to be a clearly defined overhaul coming after 2011, with Drew, Cameron, Scutaro and possibly Beltre moving on after 2011 as well as 60 million or so coming off the books after this season. They have tremendous flexibility over the next 2 offseasons to add an impact bat, extend Beckett and VMart, and to add in young players like Iglesias, Reddick and Kelly.

They also have the farm fully intact to pull the trigger on a major deal if it arises in July, and 4 picks in the Top 50 this June to bolster the farm even further. Just tremendous flexibility in all respects....I'm a huge fan of this offseason. He found a way to make us very competitive during a transition period for the club.

Re our lineup: the downgrade in left should be offset by an entire season of Martinez behind the plate and having Scutaro over Green/Seabass at shortstop. I plugged in a possible 2010 lineup:

EllsburyPedroiaMartinezYoukilisDrewOrtizCameronBeltreScutaro

into Baseball Musings' Lineup Analysis. This lineup -- if they repeated their 2009 OBP and SLG -- would be expected to score about 5.85 runs per game, almost one-half run per game more than the 2009 Red Sox scored (5.38).

The best lineup the Red Sox could trot out (for 5.91 R/G) with those numbers is:

MartinezYoukilisEllsburyDrewPedroiaOrtizCameronBeltreScutaro

Ellsbury does not bat either #1 or #2 in any of the top 30 lineups.

I'm also extremely curious how the front office's emphasis on strong fielding/run prevention (I expect to hear it called "the new Moneyball") will pay off.

14 comments:

Lineup Analysis's best batting order is truly bizarre. But putting aside the issue of what order to bat them in, you plugged in last year's numbers, not projected for this year, right? Because Beltre is definitely due for an improvement of some kind after last year's injuries.

You have to expect some regression from Scutaro, but hopefully not too bad. Maybe it's unrealistic to expect too much more from Ortiz, but over the year a little more power and average -- coupled with avoiding any massive slumps -- would be nice.

Our pitching can't have done anything but improve, and the defensive improvement is through the roof. All that could lead to a whole lot of nothing if several pieces get hurt, but with a bench with Kotchman and Hermida on it and the farm system to shore up the pitching...all in all, pretty nice.

Count me among the extremely enthusiastic; I feel good about 2010 and even better going forward. Some people whine about watching 3-2 or 2-1 games but I can't wait to watch this defense in action if it's going to be half as good in reality as it looks on paper.And of course, Happy New Year to Redsock, L-girl and all of the commenters and lurkers here; you help make being a [Scottish] Sox fan in Indiana much more bearable!!

If you scroll down the best lineups, though, there are the four guys who should be at the top in any lineup, then the next 5.

It's not so unorthodox, though. The two best OBP at 1-2, with the better SLG of them at 2. I don't get LBJ at 3, but then more good OBP in OF and FY, with Flo's SLG to follow. Scutaro got on base but his SLG is too low for him to be higher.

Also, that simulator doesn't know anything about speed, which argues against batting Ellsbury 3rd (where he'd presumably be behind the OBP guys and ahead of the SLG guys, exactly the opposite of what you want).

He's banking on having a good '10... maybe he plans on getting back on the HGH? lol he's one of the guys who had a crazy OPS year during the steroid era, whose numbers quickly came back to earth. still, even since then he's been a solid player. this is not a bad signing at all.