STORY ARCHIVE

Soccer Test

With the world cup just around the corner, things arenít looking too great for our Socceroos. The latest odds from the bookmakers put our chances of winning at around 125 to one.

But, can science help our boys in Germany?

In the world cup, many games come down to a penalty shoot out. So, weíre going to analyse the statistics and science behind the penalty shoot out and see if we can provide the Socceroos with a winning edge.

TRANSCRIPT

Narration: Soccer madness is in the air! Later this month - for the first time in 32 years - Australia's Socceroos are taking on the planet's finest at the 2006 World Cup.Our chances of winning? Well - they're not that great I'm afraid. The latest odds from the bookmakers are around 125-1.But can the science of probability narrow the odds for our boys? Sports statistician Steve Clarke says it can.

Professor Stephen Clarke: Soccer is the sort of game statisticians might say there is a lot of variability in soccer and itís a game where the weaker team can still come out with a draw or even a winÖso the chance that the weaker will score a goal than the better team is higher than you might think. In the World Cup Ė many big matches come down to a penalty shoot out. And that's where the weaker team has a perfect opportunity to heighten its chances.

Narration: A penalty shoot-out occurs when the score is still locked after final time. Even though the five top on-field free kick specialists are chosen for the task - strike rates are unusually low.

Professor Stephen Clarke: In the past in the world cup when they get to a penalty shoot out situation, only about 75% of the shots go I that means that one in four shots are missing. And this is where science can lend a helping hand. According to a probability study published in the Journal of Sports Sciences, the order in which the strikers step up to the spot could affect the outcome of the penalty shoot-out. And the game.

Professor Stephen Clarke: Statisticians look at these things because they know that from looking at past data and creating statistical models we can come to a better understanding of the game and improve performance.

Narration: Keep watching and we'll reveal how the rules of probability could give the Socceroos a game-winning edge.

Part 2

Narration: Earlier, we posed the question: can science increase the Socceroo's World Cup chances? According to sports statistician Steve Clarke it can - if the game comes down to a penalty shoot-out.

Professor Stephen Clarke: In the penalty shoot out players are only aloud to take one kick, so five players must take a kick. The quandary of every coach, of course, is which order to put the five players in. Common sense would suggest you start with your best striker. But science reveals otherwise.

Professor Stephen Clarke: The best order to put your players is actually put them in reverse order of ability, so you have your fifth best first and you actually save your best player till the last kick.

Narration: So why is this the case? Well, as the shoot-out progresses, the stakes rise, a miss costs more and the pressure increases. In fact, statistics from a Journal of Sports Scienceís study of 16 years of World Cup matches showed a markedly lower success rate for the fourth and fifth penalty shots.

Professor Stephen Clarke: What happens, players react to stress, if a player misses the first penalty shot, then the team has time to recover, but the later you get in the penalty shoot out the more important those shots become, itís because better players react better top stress that their performance doesnít fall off as much as the weaker players, their performance falls off in stressful situations.But there is one more factor in play.

Professor Stephen Clarke: Thereís a slight advantage to the team shooting second because they think thereís more stress on the team shooting first, the shot becomes more important to them so their level falls off a bit.

Narration: And the right to choose second spot in a penalty shoot-out comes down to the toss of a coin. Which is something science simply canít help with.