During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

ECRI uses a highly nuanced “many-cycles” view to understand the complex dynamics of the global economy.

To monitor the U.S. economy alone, we use an array of more than a dozen specialized leading indexes in the context of the ECRI framework for incorporating various sectors and aspects of the economy.

The ECRI framework covers 21 economies, incorporating well over 100 proprietary indexes designed to be comparable across borders.

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The market may begin looking different after Labor Day.

Even though stocks just completed a banner month, the Economic Cycle Research Institute's Lakshman Achuthan is waving a warning flag.

Achuthan believes there's a heightened risk of a sell-off that could wipe out the recent all-time highs. He used a special chart of the S&P 500 over time on CNBC's "Trading Nation" to make his case.

"What's unique about this chart is that we've marked off the slowdowns in the economy — the so-called growth rate cycle slowdowns," the institute's co-founder said Friday. "The shaded areas are when the economy is decelerating, and that is a period of time when the risk, more often than not, is that you're going to see some sort of correction in the order of 10 to 20 percent."

According to Achuthan, economic growth likely peaked in 2017. He estimates he'll have enough data to make an official call before winter.

"The slowdown is, I think, very real and will become more apparent in the coming months," he said.

Yet, stocks are trading around all-time highs. The tech-heavy Nasdaq just saw its strongest August performance since 2000, and consumer confidence is also at 18-year highs.