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Executive summary

Deloitte predicts that in 2015 total time spent watching short-form (under 20 minutes’ duration) video online will represent under three percent of all video watched on all screens. Short-form revenues will be about $5 billion: by comparison long-form TV content will generate over $400 billion from advertising and subscription revenues alone.

These ratios may appear surprising, given that short-form is often proclaimed as the future of television. A brief foray on the Internet reveals many articles, with eye-popping numbers to accompany, arguing that short-form is already dominating over long-form, mostly at the expense of traditional TV.

The answer lies with metrics: comparisons of short-form and long-form are often based on similar-sounding but unequal metrics. Short-form is measured in views; long-form in viewers. Short- and long-form both have subscribers; but for the former the marginal cost is a click; while for long-form it is a commitment of at least a month, and sometimes several years.

We estimate that 10 billion hours of aggregate online short-form video per month should be shown on screens, but not necessarily watched, in 2015. This is a spectacular achievement for a format that barely existed a decade ago, but it is equivalent to only 20 hours’ worth of global consumption of long-form video (television programs and movies). Deloitte estimates that in an average month over 360 billion hours of long-form video will be watched, principally on television sets, and mostly live. We do not expect this total to vary substantially over the coming years.

Short-form should not be considered as a direct competitor to ‘traditional’ long-form content, but rather as an additional screen-based medium, addressing needs that were previously un-served or which were catered for by other media, such as magazines, guides to playing video games, or cookery books.

We do not expect short-form online content to usurp long-form traditional television. It is a future, but not the future, of screen-based entertainment; and it is unlikely ever to be the predominant video format, as measured by hours watched or revenues. Short-form’s success should be respected, but it needs to put in context. Any claims about short-form usurping traditional long-form content should be analyzed carefully, using comparable metrics.

Deloitte refers to one or more of Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Limited, a UK private company limited by guarantee (“DTTL”), its network of member firms, and their related entities. DTTL and each of its member firms are legally separate and independent entities. Please see www.deloitte.com/about for a detailed description of DTTL and its member firms.