Technical analysis

Mid-week market update: Regular readers know that I have been bullish on the commodity and reflation trade (see A possible generational low in oil and energy stocks and The road to a 2016 market top). On the weekend, I postulated three separate short-term scenarios for the stock market (see *Sigh* Another growth scare): The growth...

Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on research outlined in our post Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...

Mid-week market update: In the short run, the SPX has pulled back and appear to be about to test its 50 day moving average (dma) at 2040, while experiencing a positive divergence on RSI-5. The SPX saw a Golden Cross last week - and the right way to trade these signals is to use...

Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on research outlined in our post Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...

Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on research outlined in our post Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...

Mid-week market update: I was wrong. I thought that the stock market was due for a pause and pullback last week (see A possible pause in the uptrend). Instead, it has strengthening on skeptical sentiment and improving breadth. The combination of these conditions are suggestive that the current rally as a lot further to go in...

Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on research outlined in our post Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...

Mid-week market update: Let me make myself absolutely clear, I remain intermediate term bullish on US equities based on the points I made in past remarks (see Equities in a macro sweet spot and The trend is your friend (breadth, seasonality and sentiment too)). As the SPX struggles with a technical resistance level at about 2080,...

Mid-week technical update: In my weekend market commentary, I wrote that I was intermediate term bullish on equities (see The trend is your friend (breadth, seasonality and sentiment too)). However, my inner trader was tactically watching the relative performance of the cyclical sectors for signs of market weakness. Now that cyclical stocks have weakened and,...

Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on research outlined in our post Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend Model...

Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on research outlined in our post Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend Model...

Mid-week technical update: I wrote on the weekend that I expect that the stock market would continue to rise on an intermediate term basis, but some short-term weakness was likely (see A repeat of the failed Oct/Nov rally of 2015?). What I did not expect was to see a short-term buy signal after the brief...

Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on research outlined in our post Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend Model...

Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on research outlined in our post Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend Model...

Mid-week market update: On the weekend, I wrote that the stock market was experiencing a bullish breadth thrust and the market is likely to see a series of "good"overbought readings where stock prices either continue to grind up or consolidate sideways as they get overbought (see RIP Correction. Reflationary resurrection next?). So far, so good....

Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on research outlined in our post Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend Model...

Mid-week trading update: Last weekend, I pointed to the analysis by Simon Maierhofer, writing in Marketwatch, who highlighted a bullish "kickoff" signal in which the SPX rose for 1.5% or more for three consecutive days (see The market 2-step: 1 forward, 1 back). Such "kickoff" signals have seen higher stock prices 12 months later. So far, the market...

Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on research outlined in our post Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend Model...

Mid-week trading update: This morning started off well for the bears - until oil prices began to rally. I wrote on the weekend that while my inner investor was constructive on stocks, my inner trader still believed that downside risk remained. Those views are unchanged. Here is where the SPX stands today. The rally was unable...

Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on research outlined in our post Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend Model...

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