2019 PGA Championship (Bethpage Black) DFS Preview

One of the bright
spots about the new PGA Tour schedule is the wait for the return of major
championship golf after the Masters has been cut from two months to one. The
move to May should help remove some of the anticlimactic feeling from the PGA
Championship that some felt with the tournament previous occurring at the end
of summer as the season wound down and what better place to help generate some
additional excitement then by holding the event in the New York City area at
one of the nation’s top public courses in Bethpage Black. The course is no
stranger to hosting major championships as the US Open was held here in 2002
and 2009 with the first edition providing plenty of memorable moments as Tiger
Woods was able to hold off Phil Mickelson in a year where the difficulty of the
course and the local fans, as Sergio Garcia and Colin Montgomerie could attest
to, were much of the story. The conditions should be a bit more benign this
year, but with Tiger back in action in his first appearance since winning the
Masters, and this being the biggest sporting event the New York area may see
all year, baring a Yankee run to the World Series, we are sure to be in for an
exciting week.

Bethpage State Park (Black): Par 70, 7,456 yards. This
storied, classic, A.W. Tillinghast design features narrow fairways that closely
lined by trees and fescue and also requires players navigate deep bunkers off
the tee. In the two US Opens held here, the rough has also been a hazard for
wayward drives, however the PGA of America has historically not been nearly as
penal with its prescribed rough length as the USGA. A report last week had its
length at about two inches meaning by the time the event rolls around we can
will likely see it fall somewhere in the three to four inch range. This is
something to monitor as we get more reports out of Bethpage as the week goes
on. Anything on the shorter end of this range will provide a nice bump to the
bombers in the field but if we get reports it is on the longer side then a
greater premium will be placed on accuracy. During the PGA Tour playoff events
we’ve seen driving accuracy only slightly below average with average driving
distance about six yards longer than the average PGA Tour event. We can expect
approach play to take on added importance this week as the greens at Bethpage
can be hard to hit and getting up and down from the around the green areas will
be a test. One of the course’s most striking design elements is its vast and
deep bunkering that is reminiscent of Pine Valley so players will want to avoid
finding them off the tee, as laying up short of the green may be the only
option in many cases. The around the green bunkers are also plentiful and
require a solid sand game to leave players with a reasonable look at par. There
are not a lot of scoring opportunities at Bethpage as the two par fives are the
only holes on the course that see birdies made at a rate of 20% or higher.
Bogey avoidance will be key this week as bogey rates of 20% or higher for the
field will likely be seen on 12 or more holes. With this course being extremely
long for a par 70, a majority of approach spots will be coming from outside the
175 yard mark.

With the shift to
May, there are a couple of weather/conditioning items worth mentioning as the
Shotlink data we have to look at for Bethpage comes from the Barclays which is
held in late August. First is the NYC area has received significant rainfall
this spring meaning the course will play longer due to decreased rollout. Also,
lower air temperatures will result in decreased carry distances.

In terms of
stats, we will want to target players who are long and straight off the tee
with strong long iron games. Also, course management and scrambling will be a
factor this week so if we want to find players who will limit drop shots
looking at bogey avoidance will take on added importance.

Here are our top
stats to consider this week:

Strokes Gained Approach

Good Drives Gained

Bogey Avoidance

Strokes Gained Off the Tee

Opportunities Gained

Proximity from Outside 175 yards

The PGA
Championship generally puts together the strongest field of the four majors as
all top 100 in the OWGR invited. One notable early week W/D is Justin Thomas
who is out with a wrist injury. This is first time we will see Tiger Woods back
in action after his Masters win. He will be grouped with defending champ Brooks
Koepka along with Open Championship winner Francesco Molinari. The opposite
wave will be anchored by the featured pairing of Jason Day, Phil Mickelson, and
Rory McIlroy. The PGA Championship is also noteworthy in that it reserves 20
spots for club professionals who earn their way in via regional qualifying. We
have some nice prize pools available this week so let’s dig in to the picks. Here
are three targets for your cash game / single entry tournament (GPP) lineups on
DraftKings:

Upper
Mid-Range – Tommy Fleetwood – $9,200

Coming off a busy
week as the host of the British Masters, Fleetwood may not get as much as an
opportunity as other in the field to get comfortable with the course, however,
Bethpage Black profiles out as a good course fit as he is long and straight off
the tee with a solid iron game and good around the greens. He is beginning to
round into form with a top ten last week and he did most of the heavy lifting
when he teamed up with Sergio Garcia to finish in second place at the Zurich.
He has gained an average of 4.12 strokes of the tee over his past five events
and while the iron game is a bit behind his typical form, he does have the
ability to flash elite upside as evidenced but some of the low rounds he has
fired in major championship.

Mid-Range
– Hideki Matsuyama – $8,500

Hideki has seen
his white hot ball striking continue as he has gained an average of 7.6 strokes
per event over his last eight Shotlink starts. His putter has been up and down
over the course of the year but Poa has historically been his best putting
surface. He also has some room for improvement in the scoring department as he
is 11th in the field in birdie or better opportunities gained while
ranking only 28th in birdies or better gained. One thing to note for
safety in this play is Hideki has also been solid around the greens so if there
is a small drop off in his iron play this week his ability to get up and down
could help see him on the right side of the cutline.

Mid-Range
– Patrick Cantlay – $8,200

Another ballstriker
who can scramble, Patrick Cantlay is among PGA Tour leaders in par four
scoring. He comes in with great current form as he held the lead briefly on
Sunday at Augusta and followed that up by navigating the tight fairways of Harbour
Town for a third-place finish at the RBC Heritage. A made cut with top 20
upside would more than justify to modest DFS price tag.