Friday, May 13, 2011

Poll suggestion time

We'll have results from West Virginia, North Carolina, and Washington next week, plus more from Virginia and our national poll. So lots to look forward to.

But where should we get into the field next weekend? Remember, our losing options in the blog readership poll this past week were Massachusetts, Minnesota, Montana, New Mexico, Ohio, Oregon, and South Carolina.

But with Herb Kohl announcing his retirement today, and Paul Ryan making a statement on that race soon, and rumors about Tammy Baldwin jumping in, and a draft movement for Russ Feingold, it might be worth taking another look at Wisconsin. We haven't polled there in two months, and at that point, Feingold looked about as solid as Kohl did. But the recall campaigns are heating up, so it'll be interesting to see if voters are still as mad at Scott Walker. And Ryan's budget proposal hadn't come out until after our last poll, so I wonder if he'll continue the slide in popularity we saw between our December and March polls.

What I'd like to see is Minnesota! The seemingly progressive Dayton would be I think a great test for whether buyer's remorse is as strong for Dem governors.

After all, Republicans won both houses of the state leg. overturning approximate 2/3rds majorities in both houses for the Dems pre-election- clearly the state is not such natural Dem territory as is sometimes said.

And, frankly, I'm left wondering whether a state leg. question would show buyers' remorse there, as the Repubs don't have the trifecta of veto-proof majorities. Plus, it's their first Dem governor in twenty years, and the prospect of a united Dem government in Minnesota come January 2013 excites me!

The Minnesota legislature is poised to pass a constitutional amendment banning gay marriage, going before the voters in the 2012 election. A recent Star Tribune poll shows opponents of the ban up 55%-39%, but I wonder if survey methodology played a role. It would be interesting to see another poll on the subject.

Well why are you even asking? With all that's going on Wisconsin, it would be foolish of you not to poll there!

Obviously if you want a backup to poll, Ohio is worth it. Sherrod Brown looked pretty solid for reelection, and that's necessary with all the tossups the Democrats have to contend with. Also worth looking at John Kasich's approval ratings, and if they're in the tank like Walker's and Snyder's.

Montana's also a good option, with the motherlode of races in 2012. The Senate race between Tester and Rehberg will be one to watch, along with the gubernatorial election (as Schweitzer is term-limited).

Wisconsin sounds good. I would suggest generic ballot questions for state legislature and congress, as well as polling favorability of Walker and Senate Majority Leader Fitzgerald. Maybe also poll to see who they voted for in Prosser vs. Kloppenburg to tell excitement levels and to check a baseline.

Definitely Wisconsin. Besides US Senate and President, there is the potential gubernatorial recall, so it would be nice to get some new numbers on Walker as well. Additionally, now that there is a full slate of candidates for the 9 State Senators facing a potential recall election, do you know if you guys will be doing a new round of polling on the State Senate recall elections, but now including the Democratic State Senators?

Do the states that lost last time minus Oregon and throw in:1)Wisconsin because of Kohl2)New Jersey because it hasn't been polled since early January and it has a much more competitive Senate race than people think (Tom Kean Jr. was only down 2) and check on Christie (a recent Survey USA poll showed his approval rating to be 38 while 56 disapprove)3)Nebraska because it's been a long time (I think January also)4)maybe New York, Vermont, Utah (Hatch primary challenge)

North Dakota. Check matchups in the Senate race: Brian Kalk vs. Rick Berg in the Republican primary and then against Pam Gulleson in the General. Also Obama approvals would be interesting and do the usual presidential match-ups. Hoeven and Dalrymple approvals would also be interesting...

Minnesota! I want to see confirmation that MN might be the first state to vote against a marriage-only gay marriage ban!

- No it is not the first state to ban gay marriage with a vote. California technically did it back in 2008. Many states have had votes as such a law requires an amendment to the state constitution which usually has to be approved by voters to take effect.