Wednesday, January 03, 2007

Wednesday 01/03 A.M. Quickie:Boise, Bama, Brohm, Brady, AI, More

BoiseState, The Morning After Morning After: Everyone keeps saying that BoiseState's win proves the need for a playoff. I actually think it proves how hard a playoff field would be to create:

Let's say it was an 8-team field, with 6 of the slots filled by the BCS conference champs (no reasonable playoff scenario exists without that condition).

How could you justify picking Boise State over BOTH Michigan (ranked No. 3 in the final regular-season BCS poll) AND LSU (ranked No. 4)?

(Unless one of the two remaining "at-large" scenarios is an automatic bid to the top-rated non-BCS team -- not a bad idea, but poses a ton of problems when the top-rated non-BCS team isn't, say, unbeaten, like Boise State was. What happens when the top-ranked non-BCS team is a one-loss dud ranked in the high teens or low 20s?)

Plus, you're simply naive if you think that a glamorous (if overrated) Notre Dame team ranked in the vicinity of the highest-rated non-BCS team would be snubbed, even in favor of a Cinderella like Boise State. It's just not reasonable.

The other complicating factor is trying to transpose the current bowl lineup onto a playoff format: Even if BoiseState was in the playoff field, why in the world would they be matched up with Oklahoma in a "quarterfinal" bowl game? Wouldn't BoiseState be, at best, the No. 7 or No. 8 seed? That would earn them a quarterfinal with either OhioState or Florida, both superior to Oklahoma.

Nick Saban: Bolt to Bama or stay in Miami? Let's assume the money is equal, what would YOU do if you were him?

Argument to stay in NFL: Already reached the pinnacle of CFB. NFL jobs are harder to get (and better to have). Winning big consistently in the SEC is way harder than making the playoffs in the AFC.

Argument to go back to college: Total control that he'll never have in the NFL. He would instantly become one of the Top 3 coaches in college football. Though he'll never be the highest-paid coach in the NFL; it's a hell of a thing to be the highest-paid coach in college football.

Orange Bowl: Louisville ends WakeForest's dream season. Wake can't catch a break. Even as they finally emerge from Rutgers' shadow as THE Cinderella of the CFB season, they are eclipsed by BoiseState, the Team Everyone Can't Stop Talking About. And then they lose to Louisville in an unremarkable game. (The unintended consequence of BoiseState's win over Oklahoma: ALL games are unremarkable by comparison.)

Big questions: (1) Is L'ville QB Brian Brohm going pro? (2) Was Wake's success this season a fluke or is it sustainable?

Tonight's Bowlin': Sugar! LSU vs. Notre Dame. It's very possible that LSU is the REAL 2nd-best team in the country. And, much like Michigan and USC, they'll get a chance to beat up on an overrated Irish team to prove their claim.

Top Sugar Subplots: (1) Can a big game out of LSU QB JaMarcus Russell vault him over Brady Quinn as an NFL draft prospect? (2) Is this Charlie Weis' last game as ND coach?

NBA: AI ejected in return to Philly. But he gave his old fans a perfect snapshot of his tenure there: (1) 30 points. (2) 10/24 FGs. (3) Griping about management. (4) Loss for his team. (Meanwhile, Ron-Ron Artest had a career-high 39 in a Kings W over the Knicks.)

MLB Hot Stove: Big Unit to D'backs. Reportedly, it's going to happen before the end of the week. The biggest impact? With Johnson's $16 million off the payroll, the Yankees can simply and easily slide it right over to... Roger Clemens.

NFL: Matt Millen says "I'll never quit." How nice for him, because it seems that the Lions ownership will never fire him. William Clay Ford is retaining Millen – despite overwhelming fan protest (for years) – and he still has four years left on his contract. I'll repeat what I said on Monday morning: No NFL fan currently suffers like the Lions fan.

DeMeco Ryans wins AP NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year after leading all NFL players in solo tackles. Given that he was a 2nd-round choice -- and that the Texans used their first overall choice on defensive player Mario Williams -- do you think they now regret not using that pick on Reggie Bush or Vince Young? I'm sure the fans do.

College Hoops: Greg Oden has career-high 21 in OhioState win over Indiana in Big Ten opener for OSU's Fab Frosh. Why do I think that this won't be Oden's last "career-high" game?

Remember the Dead Schembechlers? They have changed their name. The band is now called "Bastard Sons of Woody." I like that they maintained the integrity of using college football references.

Do you live in New York City? If you're looking for a good time tonight, go check out the Varsity Letters Reading Series, hosted by Carl Bialik of the Wall Street Journal's excellent Daily Fix and Gelf Magazine, recently named one of the top sports media of the year by SI.com. (Want to get on the Varsity Letters mailing list and always be kept updated on the latest events? Email Carl at bialik@gmail.com.) For all the info, click here.

68 comments:

If the money is the same for Saban, there's no way he goes back to Alabama. I mean... think about it. If you're sitting on $8-10 million a year, do you want to spend that money in Tuscaloosa or Miami?

(Hint: Miami is beautiful. Tuscaloosa is a backwater dump.)

Well, let me clarify: There's no way that I would move to Alabama. I'd like to think that the combination of Miami's beaches and the chance to win a Super Bowl would trump any of the reasons for heading back to the college ranks, but... who knows.

Maybe the guy just wants the safe, cushy job at Alabama where he has 4-5 years to turn the program around, as opposed to the year-to-year pressure of coaching in the NFL.

What happens when the top-ranked non-BCS team is a one-loss dud ranked in the high teens or low 20s

Um, then we have a system similar to the one Utah used to crash the party. If the mid major finishes as high as Utah or Boise St, then he's in.

How could you justify picking Boise State over BOTH Michigan (ranked No. 3 in the final regular-season BCS poll) AND LSU (ranked No. 4)

Well, LSU definitely doesn't get a shot in the current system, so a new system that also doesn't get them a shot isn't any worse for them. And I think LSU, with 2 losses, has no claim for a shot.

That would earn them a quarterfinal with either Ohio State or Florida, both superior to Oklahoma.

What kind of point is that? You want to give them a shot at the national title, but you want to coddle them by only letting them play the lesser contenders as to... what, not hurt their little mid-major feelings? I'm confused. You can't give them a title shot without expecting them to play OSU or UF.

Wow... I just clicked over to espn.com, and it looks like they've replaced Dan's Quickie with D.J. Gallo's "A.M. Jump". The title drew me in, and when I clicked on it, a big powder blue logo showed up (think San Diego Chargers powder blue), with garish orange and green scattered around the page. I like D.J.'s columns, but there's no content in this "new" feature. There's even a big box at the bottom of the page of stuff that isn't real, probably some leftovers from SportsPickle.com.

Except for the fact I think Saban sees the writing on the wall that this team will not be a Super Bowl Contender for a while. Let's not forget that I believe the defense is one of the oldest in the leagues and will probably be going downhill over the next couple of years, he has major question at QB, his running back is good but not one that can be counted on. So if he can go to Alabama with complete control and make the same or better money he should take the job and run.

(Unless one of the two remaining "at-large" scenarios is an automatic bid to the top-rated non-BCS team -- not a bad idea, but poses a ton of problems when the top-rated non-BCS team isn't, say, unbeaten, like Boise State was. What happens when the top-ranked non-BCS team is a one-loss dud ranked in the high teens or low 20s?)

Don't hand me that crap...TCU deserved a go last year despite being ONLY 11-1. With a switch to a playoff, they could keep the "finish above number X in the rankings and you're in" strategy.

And screw Notre Dame. They're behind the times and need to join a conference. They don't deserve exceptions...they are not above the game of college football.

Can't use the argument "assuming the money is the same", then say it's a hell of a thing to be the highest paid college coach.

Even if the yearly salaries were the same, the guarantee of $40M from Alabama makes it a much more lucrative position.

The problem is, if Saban goes back to the college game, it will be a long time (if ever) before he gets another NFL offer. Teams will stay away for fear of him flip-flopping back to the college game and leaving them hanging out to dry.

And Charlie Weis only leaves Notre Dame under one condition - whichever NFL team hires him has already coaxed Scott Pioli away from the Patriots to co-run their operation.

The Giants could fit this bill - they will need a new GM and probably a new head coach after this week. Otherwise, Weis stays at ND until the next "greatest offer" comes along.

I'll say the same thing I said yesterday: Boise State could not beat 3 or 4 elite teams in succession (and to prove I'm not being anti-mid major -- Ohio State couldn't have done it either in 2002). Does anyone honestly think Boise State could beat Oklahoma, USC, and Ohio State in three successive weekends? Aren't we talking about a team who had to come back versus the national powerhouse known as San Jose St.?

This isn't college basketball or professional football. This isn't a balanced playing field. There are no roster limits, and there are no limitations to expenditures.Go to a playoff system, and you'll never see a Georgia Tech national championship again.

I've been thinking about the 8-team playoff scenario (during my hour commute to work), and I have to agree with Dan - the 6 conference champs, plus LSU and Michigan, would have been the top 8. And I agree - that's not going to do Boise State any good.

So... now I'm thinking that the "Plus One" system might be the best way to go. After OSU dominates Florida (sorry, Mrs. Quickie), I think someone should offer $20 mill to each school for the rights to an OSU-Boise State matchup. Play the game in, I don't know, Texas Stadium. Settle all doubt.

I don't think conference champs should get auto-bids. Just go with BCS top 8. That would only work if the human polls weren't as influential in the bcs though...bitter sportswriters and graduate assistants would stick to the little guys and rank them 9th every year.

I think Nick Saban is better off leaving Miami for Alabama for one reason.

Miami is not in nor will they be in a position to suceed for quite sometime, and if he fails for say another 2 seasons he will be likely to be fired anyway and the chances of another NFL job at that time is slim.

With Alabama he is getting long term commitment and the ability to crate a winner from the bottom up.

OF COURSE Boise St. could beat all those other teams, just look at the NFL. All those gutless conservative coaches would get shell-shocked by their play-calling and execution. Boise St. can beat ANYBODY right now.

They're the Patriots of the CFB.

As for Millen, I have a new theory. I think he joined the UAW union, so Ford can't fire him!

Scott Pioli and Bill Belichick arent leaving New England. ALl the other 31 other NFL teams can dream all they want but theres no way these two leave a team where they have such a great working relationship with the ownership not to mention near god like status with the fans.

Why don't you just limit BCS playoff teams to conference champions only? That would have eliminated LSU and Michigan, but they both had their chance to win their respective conference, and didn't. If there is a problem deciding a conference champ (unbalanced schedule, co-champs), then its on the conference to figure out, not a computer or human poll. This also helps make the regular season a "de-facto" playoff to decide who goes.

I actually agree with you 100% on the BCS/playoff thing. Excellent thought process.

One flaw I found in your Saban comments -

Getting to the playoffs in the AFC is not that easy. They will never win the division with Belicheck and Pioli at the top. Not to mention Mangini and Bills. Even if they were to secure 2nd in the AFC East, a wild card would be tough with teams like Cinci, Pittsburg and Jacksonville in contention every single year. Its a no brainer for Saban, go to Bama.

And for Ma4tt, Saban is a god fearing Christian man, he does not like the Miami lifestyle. Tuscaloosa is perfect for him and the wife.

After the ACC made their move to become the dominant football conference on the East Coast by taking BC, Va Tech and Miami, they have decidely fallen behind the BE. The BE champ just beat the ACC champ along with being an overall 4-0 in bowl games with far greater dominance in the polls.

Interesting how a couple of years ago pundits were calling for BE elimination from the automatic BCS bids.

An 8 team playoff is really too small to work right (though it'd be a massive improvement over what we've got). Given a 119 team field in the 'Bowl Subdivision' with 11 conferences and a handful of independents, you'd really want a 24 or 32-team field. But 16 works reasonably well -- 11 conference champs + 5 at-large determined by selection committee; first round (and possibly second) at home site of higher seed; later rounds at bowl sites. Bowls not involved the playoffs can either stage the game anyway, establish a 'football NIT' (or a few regional tournaments), or fold.

I'll also add that Saban won't reach the level of success that Shula did in 2005. Am I the only one who remembers that Alabama was 10-2 last year?

Yeah, Bama was 10-2 last year, but did you follow them? Talent, not coaching, carried them all year. Once Prothro went down, they hardly could score a TD. Their D won many close games (13-10 vs Ole Miss, 6-3 vs TN).

ma4tt~ I agree. If he was such a "God-fearing Christian" he wouldn't be lying when asked about the Bama job and meetings. I read his responses and wanted to puke.

Honest Christians also don't care about how much money they earn.

NOT starting the religious battle!!!!! I just wanted to vent about what bullshit I think his answers were the other day. Just be honest when asked about something that the whole sports nation is already aware of.

Would OSU accept an invitation to play Boise State? I mean, if they are given the title by beating UF, why would they feel the need to defend it one MORE time against Boise?

Then you get football-as-boxing....folks lining up for their chance at the champ.

The one good thing about ND not being in a conference, sorta, is that they at least can hand-pick all 12 games on their schedule. (Feel free to insert Army, Navy, cracks here....)

I wonder how Saban jumping to Alabama would compare with Pitino going to Louisville....seems like LSU could feel double-crossed. Although it's not like Saban could get the LSU job back (pending tonight's game maybe?)

Nick Saban is a god and a recruiting master. The parts of Michael Lewis' book "The Blind Side" that describe Saban and his recruiting efforts and technique explains how LSU was able to stock pile so much talent (so quickly).

The biggest problem Saban will have at BAMA is convincing recruits that he is there to stay. That said, he is a proven winner, a big name, HUGELY respected in the SEC (and the corresponding part of the country).

He'll be taking recruits away from Auburn in no time and poaching from LA, MS, and FL while he's at it.

After all this time and looking so bad for so long, BAMA is going to be a premiere recruiting program real quick.

The solution for the playoff has already been mentioned. 16-team playoff, with 11 autobids for conference champions, 5 at-large bids that can either be determined by committee or by highest standing in a BCS-like poll.

This guarantees every team a "chance" at the national championship every year, something the current formula DOES NOT ALLOW. Any team that goes undefeated during the regular season and the post-season will win the national championship, period.

As a proponent for the supposed "mid-major" conferences (what a load of CROCK), I don't care if a Boise State gets seeded low and has to play a Florida or OSU in the first round. WE WANT A CHANCE AT THE BEST. If we lose, so be it. If we do happen to knock off four teams in a row, it will shut everybody up.

This is the only solution. Any playoff that does not allow a team to go undefeated in the regular season and post-season regardless of poll rankings, is no solution at all.

I just don't see Saban making a quick impact at Alabama. It's obvious the guy can't be trusted. Who wants to play for a coach who can't make you believe he's actually going to be there for the 3 or 4 (or 5) years that you're going to play for the team?

I just can't understand why anyone would want to coach at Alabama. What a nightmare job. "Here: go beat LSU, Auburn, and Georgia every year, do it right away, and never stop doing it. Ever." The only reason I can see why Saban would want the Bama job is that he probably wasn't safe for more than another year or two in Miami, and for Bama he should get at least... 3.

I just can't read the Daily Quickie 2.0. I'm trying, but it just makes me want to click over to SportsNation and join in on the Morning Quickie. The DQ 2.0 just seems incomplete without an MQ to go with it.

So until ESPN comes up with a companion chat (I'm betting they'll call it the "Jumpstart"), the DQ 2.0 is dead to me. And even with a MQ 2.0, it won't be the same...

Again, coaches leave every season. Why Saban is more of a sleaze than say...Urban Meyer or Les Miles..is beyond me.

LSU was not a premium program before Saban got there. Saban made them an elite program..and they still aren't "premium". The NFL will ALWAYS be there. If he wins at Bama for 3-4 years, the NFL will come back.However, Saban probably won't go from Bama to any other college job. For better or worse, Bama is considered one of those premier programs (Ohio State, USC, Notre Dame, Michigan and maybe 1 or 2) are the others. So there isn't much room for Saban to improve upon as far as prestige and money goes.

Huizenga isn't exactly a model owner, so I wouldn't want to work for him either.

As a Dolphins' fan, all I have to say is "good riddance." The guy brought in the wrong QB, drafted a safety in the 1st round who missed alomst all of his senior season, and looked constipated on the sidelines all season.

He obviously didn't want to be there. And the SEC is great and all, but if he finished out his contract, 80% of the team was going to be from that conference. He never really did get over leaving LSU.

That being said, can we please bring in Ron Rivera from the Bears?? In Latino-heavy South Florida (and with a Latino owner), that has to be the most obvious hire ever.

PS- I've never liked Bama, and now there's even more reason to hope they fail. Auburn fans may even get a WAR EAGLE out of me every now and then.

On the AM Jump thing - apparently DJ Gallo will be doing it every day this week, but only on Mondays, Wednesdays, and Fridays starting next week. Not sure if they have someone else to fill in on Tuesdays and Thursdays, or if it's just a three-times-a-week thing... but it just proves that no one can match the original Quickie!

I'm guessing, but I think that this is what Dan is doing:1) Writing a book. He's hinted at that before.2) Maintaining the quickie fan base via his blog in the hopes that he'll have a built-in audience for his book.3) Parlay book success into new writing job.

Here's a future exerpt...."I remember vividly back on Jan. 2, 2007 when I watched AI get ejected in his return to Philly. He gave his old fans a perfect snapshot of his tenure there.....(game was actually in Denver)

I wish I could remember more, (and we've all seen them) Anybody else remember some of Dan's good "mixing the facts up".

Props to Cycledan for recognizing the Big East's DOMINANCE in bowl games. I'm tired of hearing how the ACC is the tougher football conference with Miami, Va Tech and BC joining. Looks like that theory is shot!!

rafael~ I was using ma4tt's quote with the "God-fearing" and Saban was asked about the Bama job and said something to the effect of "I don't know what you're talking about". That doesn't sound like 'pondering' it sounds like 'denial'. I don't expect crap from him.

If my son was being recruited by him, I would say "thanks, but no thanks."

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DanShanoff.com is a sports-blog spin-off of my long-time ESPN.com column, "The Daily Quickie." Anchored by an early-morning post of must-know topics, the blog is updated frequently throughout the day with new posts and user comments.