Sunday, November 22, 2015

If Putin Goes His Own Way in Syria, Russia’s Aggression in Ukraine Intensify, Zubov Says

Paul
Goble

Staunton, November 22 – What
Vladimir Putin does in Syria clearly will have a powerful impact on what he
does in Ukraine, Andrey Zubov says.If
the Kremlin leader goes his own way to save Asad, he will be isolated and, in
response, will be likely to intensify his aggression against Ukraine. If he
chooses to cooperate with the West, the reverse will be true.

. Russia would benefit more
by cooperating with the West in Syria, Zubov argues; but unfortunately, Putin
cares first and foremost about saving one of his “own” dictators, something
that precludes participation in a broader counter-terrorism alliance and is
likely to lead to a worsening of relations with the West.Because that will likely
require a Russian ground operation, that will lead to the return of bodies from
the conflict, something Putin like Stalin may not care much about; but because
of that, he will almost certainly want to get a victory somewhere to mobilize
the population around him and that will make the expansion of Russian
aggression in Ukraine almost a certainty.If, on the other hand,
Putin did decide to join the Western coalition against ISIS, “this would
positively affect the resolution of the Ukrainian crisis,” Zubov says. That
would be good for Russia as well because sanctions would end and the Russian
economy could begin to recover. But unfortunately, “Putin is conducting himself
irrationally” and is likely to try to save Asad.In the course of his
interview, Zubov makes two other important points.First, he says, the situation is not, despite
Moscow’s efforts to portray it this way, like that of 1941, in which the West
so needed Moscow’s help that it had to accept Stalin as an ally.The West can in fact deal with ISIS without
Russia’s assistance. To think otherwise is “very naïve.”And second, Putin wants to
save the Asad regime. He may be prepared to sacrifice Asad the man as long as
he can ensure an Asad-like regime allied to Moscow will take its place.That is a move the West and Ukraine need to
be very much on the lookout for because Putin could look like he was making a
concession that in fact is no concession at all.