Wednesday, May 11, 2011

As happens most years, most of the top 100 players in the country were either seniors or left for the NBA draft, and as a result Jae Crowder is the 24th most valuable player going into the 2011-12 season based on a very precise calculation to determine his Value Add to Marquette.

I've posted all 2500+ returning players by team below, but first a few comments.

DJO makes Marquette one of only 14 teams with two top 100 returning players and at least four top 500 players, and our only opponents to match up with us on that count are UConn, Georgetown and Vandy. Here are MUs marks:

Rank

Rank among returning players

Name

Feet

Inches

Team

Value add

81

24

Jae Crowder

6

6

Marquette

4.11%

202

84

Darius Johnson-Odom

6

2

Marquette

3.01%

746

403

Davante Gardner

6

8

Marquette

1.32%

789

431

Jamil Wilson

6

7

2010 Oregon

1.23%

638

Juan Anderson

6

6

Marquette

Projected

1164

691

Chris Otule

6

11

Marquette

0.69%

1752

1126

Junior Cadougan

6

1

Marquette

0.17%

2286

1533

Vander Blue

6

4

Marquette

0.76%

2469

1676

David Singleton

6

3

2010 High Point

0.40%

NR

Todd Mayo

6

3

Marquette

NR

Jamail Jones

6

6

Marquette

NR

Derrick Wilson

6

1

Marquette

The one item a little confusing is that Junior is ranked ahead of Blue even though the Value Add jumps from 0.17% to 0.76%. Actually, Blue and Singleton are defensive specialists right now who shut down opponents with steals, but their offensive Value Add to a BCS team is 0.00%, as are all the other returning players ranked 1314th or lower. For those players, we print their offensive Value Add if they played for a lower D1 team.

I calculated the Value Add for the 2500+ who are returning after playing at least 4 minutes a game last year. I also added Rivals 150 freshman and assigned a projected Value Add equal to how the corresponding freshman did last year (e.g. Austin Rivers is the #1 ranked recruit according to Rivals, so we project he will do as well as Jared Sullinger did last year). This estimated ranking for freshman is not nearly as accurate as the Value Add formula for returning players, but it creates a comprehensive list, and gives us a feel that Juan Anderson could step right in and be Marquette's 5th best offensive player.

We are matching up against three of the top four players in the country in Wisconsin's Jordan Taylor (#1), Vandy's John Jenkins (#3) and Pitt's Ashton Gibbs (#4). However, we already shut down the #5 returning player in Xavier's Tu Holloway. We have some unexpected tough match-ups such as UWMs 6-foot-8 Tony Meier as the 42nd most valuable returning player.

Also, I can’t deny some former players and commits are looking awfully good out there. The real shame is that 6-foot-8 Trevor Mbakwe comes back to Minnesota as the 43rd player in the country. I certainly underestimated DJ Newbill as a low 3-star, as he was the 28th best freshman in the country at Southern Mississippi (147th most valuable overall). Tyshawn Taylor (343rd) of Kansas is on pace for the NBA next year, Nick Williams (404th) was Mississippi’s best player on a talented team after transferring from Indiana. Patrick Hazel almost cracked the Top 1000, and both he and Liam McMorrow were shot blocking machines. Only Jeronne Maymon at Tennessee has been a bust, but players averaging fewer than 4 minutes a game can’t be rated.

The one other team I wanted to pull out is Vanderbilt, who is scary loaded. As great as we played against them last year, I am glad they have to come to Milwaukee this year. Three of the top 50 players in the country will be tough.

Rank among returning players

Name

Feet

Inches

Team

Value add

3

John Jenkins

6

4

Vanderbilt

6.18%

34

Brad Tinsley

6

3

Vanderbilt

3.68%

48

Festus Ezeli

6

11

Vanderbilt

3.48%

115

Jeffery Taylor

6

7

Vanderbilt

2.71%

390

Lance Goulbourne

6

8

Vanderbilt

1.36%

594

Steve Tchiengang

6

9

Vanderbilt

0.87%

648

Dai-Jon Parker

6

3

Vanderbilt

Projected

765

Kedren Johnson

6

4

Vanderbilt

Projected

937

Andre Walker

6

7

Vanderbilt

0.33%

1173

Rod Odom

6

9

Vanderbilt

0.13%

2126

Kyle Fuller

6

1

Vanderbilt

0.00%

But with that I will let you pick what you want to browse through by presenting the other 343 teams (besides Vandy and MU above), with the returning players on each team listed by the highest Value Add and what their ranking is of all returning players in the country.