Tuning In: Pundits picking Patriots, but not in another wipeout

Asked during a conference call how long he expected Belichick to continue to coach, Johnson replied, “How long do you think he's going to live?”

Belichick is only 60, so he should live for quite a few more years.

“If Josh McDaniels is the coach in waiting,” Johnson said, “he's liable to be waiting a long time because I don't know that Bill would be all that excited if he didn't have football in his life on a daily basis.”

The No. 2 Patriots host No. 3 Houston at 4:30 p.m. Sunday in an AFC Divisional playoff game on CBS. When the Texans visited Gillette Stadium a month ago, the Pats romped, 42-14.

“I think Houston is a lot better football team than that,” Johnson said, “and had they not made the critical errors there in the first quarter, I think it would have been a much better ballgame. I don't put a lot of stock in that one game. Now playing in New England, the way they (the Patriots) play at home and them dominating that first game, I still look at New England being the better football team, but I don't think that score was indicative of the two teams.”

The Patriots learned the hard way that blowing a team out late in the regular season means nothing come playoff time. On Dec. 6, 2010, they embarrassed the Jets, 45-3, but on Jan. 16, 2011, they fell to those same Jets, 28-21, in an AFC Divisional playoff game at Gillette.

“From a player's perspective,” Fox analyst Troy Aikman said, “you wonder a little bit if you've lost to a team and you had high expectations going in. I think for Houston, for them to have been given an opportunity to wrap up the No. 1 seed there towards the end of the year and not being able to do it and play in the wild-card round and now to have to go there to play that game on the road, that's tough to overcome.”

Phil Simms, who will analyze the Pats-Texans game alongside Jim Nantz, wonders if the Pats will take the Texans as seriously after having dominated them in the regular season, but he thinks Houston has a lot of questions to answer.

“Vince Wilfork was a tremendous problem for Houston in the first game,” Simms said. “What will Houston's plan be this week to maybe change Vince Wilfork's production? What will Houston do on the defensive side? When you give up 42 points, you have to try something different. Because whatever they did last time, it didn't work. That's what NFL coaching is about. And that is why coaches are so important in the NFL. They have to change game plans.”

Aikman said he doesn't always pick teams to win just because they have the better quarterbacks, but he likes Tom Brady's chances against Houston's Matt Schaub.

“This Belichick-Brady combination, it's a pretty good tandem,” Aikman said. “It's hard for me to look at that pairing against anybody and not feel good about their chances.”

Aikman credited 49ers coach Jim Harbaugh for choosing the unproven Colin Kaepernick to play quarterback when he would have faced much less second guessing by giving Alex Smith his old job back after he recovered from a concussion. Aikman compared that courageous decision to Belichick going for it on fourth and two from the New England 28 with 2:08 left and the Pats leading Indianapolis, 34-28, on Nov. 15, 2009. The Colts didn't allow the first down and scored with 13 seconds left to win the game. Aikman refused to second-guess Belichick then because he realized the Pats coach didn't want to give the ball back to Peyton Manning.

“Unfortunately,” Aikman said, “too many coaches are worried about the criticism they're going to take at the end of the game and they don't make decisions based on what gives them the best chance.”

Former Red Sox manager Bobby Valentine is returning to broadcasting as a contributor to NBC Sports Radio. Valentine will call in his thoughts weekly to NBC Sports Radio beginning this month and will become a part-time co-host of a Monday-Friday talk show that will make its debut in April.

NBC Sports Radio made its debut on Sept. 4. WUFC (1510 AM) in Boston is the closest NBC Sports Radio affiliate.