While the future of the free market now hinges on some power cord which according to the AP "may solve the crisis", yet which we are a little skeptical is merely the latest deux ex machina that the prevaricating Japanese authorities are pulling out of their collective derrieres (remember the water and boron baths that were supposed to fix everything), a far more troubling report has emerged from the New Scientist (citing Kyodo) which may explain why TEPCO and Japanese authorities have been so tight lipped about the actual truth of what is happening at Fukushima. To wit: "The situation at Japan's Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant has
become extremely unnerving. The Tokyo Electric Power Company has now
admitted that the spent fuel rods could go critical - that is, a nuclear
chain reaction could restart." This would be an absolute worst case disaster which would make Chernobyl look like a dress rehearsal. Incidentally while hope and pray (to Ben Bernanke) may have been a viable strategy for stocks over the past two years, it will fail disastrously when dealing with a nuclear catastrophe.

We have known since yesterday that the reactors themselves were
coming under control, and that the biggest threat came from the spent
fuel ponds, where the water level has fallen and temperatures have
risen. That could lead to the stored fuel rods breaking open, releasing
their radioactive contents.

Tokyo Electric Power Co. said Wednesday it is considering
spraying boric acid by helicopter to prevent spent nuclear fuel rods
from reaching criticality again, restarting a chain reaction, at the
troubled No. 4 reactor of its quake-hit Fukushima No. 1 nuclear power
plant. "The possibility of recriticality is not zero," TEPCO said as it
announced the envisaged step against a possible fall in water levels in a
pool storing the rods that would leave them exposed.

This is a real surprise. These ponds are a standard feature of
nuclear reactors, and are typically designed to ensure that nuclear
reactions cannot restart in the fuel rods. Among other things, the rods
should be widely spaced in the pond.

The BBC explains that the company is now "caught between a rock and a hard place":

If the fuel rods are dry and hot, there could be damage to
the cladding and the release of light radioactive nuclei. To prevent
that, you would want to inject water. But water on its own is a neutron
moderator and would enhance the chances, however small, of
criticality... [water] reduces the speed of the neutrons, meaning they
can be captured by uranium nuclei in the fuel rods, inducing them to
split. Without water, the neutrons travel too fast, and are not
captured.

Hence the company's proposal to add boric acid, which would mop up
the neutrons and hopefully stave off the reactivation of a nuclear
reaction. If this did happen, it does not mean there would be a
nuclear explosion, but the rods would heat up, the zirconium cladding
would probably split, and the likely release of radioactive material
into the atmosphere would be significantly higher.

In the longer term, questions will be asked about how the ponds wound
up in this condition, when it should have been completely avoidable.

We can only hope this is completely wrong as the alterantive would be total devastation beyond anything seen so far.

Only *some* hell has broken loose at this time, according to government sources, who spoke on condition of anonymity. The interview was conducted on horseback as all parties fled for the hells. I mean the hills.

Is a pool still a pool if it has no water? Or is it now just a radioactive skate park?

But more broadly, even if the spent rods achieve criticality, it will probably mean high levels of localized radiation. Unless there are substantial explosions, it probably won't generate a Chernobyl-style plume that would travel vast distances.

"The problematic one is in Reactor 4, where they had densely packed the pool with spent fuel rods because the reactor itself was not in operation."

Not precisely. # 4 was down for maintenance when the quake struck. The speculation is that the rods from the core (not spent rods but live ones) were in the pool with the spent rods awaiting re-isertion as part of the maintenance cycle. Then the quake happened, the tsunami wiped out the aux generators, the pool went dry and so now you have live fuel reacting with the spent rods and that is why they are worried about the mass reaching criticality. Now it would not explode unless it hit some water but the amount of radiation released would be very large indeed.

this is gonna get way worse b4 it gets better, and it is not gonna get better while any of us are still pretending to enjoy planetary existence here.

i have set the over/under for this event at Chernobyl X5, with March 31, 2011 as "settlement day in green stamps" and vegas is getting more action than on March Madness, so far. in case of any disagreement regading the quantification vis-a-vis chernobyl, slewie will make the decision, which will be final AND binding on all playaZ.

after the shit i went thru here, yest, no one else is qualified..., but in the event i am too fuked up to e on the 31st, tyler can make the call @ 4 PM eastern, and we'll just let the green-stamp-based chips fall wherever tf they fall, 'k?

Oh....Trav....you're back! Still trying to defend yourself I see. Is there anything you would like to say to the people you were calling hysterical idiots yesterday?....or do you have some more sweet smelling disinfo for us today?

This is exactly what I've been saying about the pools. From what I've read, unit 4 has about 5 years of spent fuel rods in it. Should they melt, whatever water may be left in the pool will serve as a moderator, causing criticality. Once it becomes critical, they will melt further, and the game is up, as it will probably be large enough to remain critical without moderation. From there, it's china syndrome as the blob melts through the relatively thin pool floor on its way to the water table, where it will promptly explode once in contact with water, giving us the feared "20 Megaton" thermal explosion and will probably double the total worldwide fallout since nuclear testing began in the 40s.

This the post I found just mins. ago "The operator of the Fukushima nuclear plant says it has almost completed a new power line that could restore electricity to the complex and solve the crisis that has threatened a meltdown. The new line would revive electric-powered pumps, allowing a steady water supply to troubled reactors and spent fuel storage ponds, keeping them cool."

Yeah, that's the AP story, the problem is if there are still leaks in the pipes (which would not be surprising, especially in Reactor 2 where there was an explosion directly by the suppression pool and Reactor 3 where they had a big badaboom) it doesn't matter if you have the electric pumps going (also assuming the pumps themselves are not damaged).

They won't know if that "solves the crisis" until they actually get the power on and see if the stuff works. Also restoring power could increase the potential for fires. Cross your fingers.

To assume that the pumps, pipes, valves and electrical controllers are all still functioning properly in the three units that have suffered explosions is similar to wishing on a star. I guess it's possible and I hope they are able to start the cooling system back up. But for the news story to report it like it's a no brainer is nothing but hope and prayer spinning.

If it does save the day, it will mean TEPOC electric division will have saved TEPOC nuclear division.

I wouldn't be too concerned about valves, they're pretty tough but operator stations are not. From what I understand is that the control room for the blown out reactors are all distasters, in that they are experiencing "lost of view" on the HMI and that nothing actually works from a control standpoint.

If you can't see what's happening to your process you can't control that process, simple as that.

I was trying to cover all the bases. I agree that the valves are pretty hearty. But the controllers and electric motors on the values, vents, switches etc is another matter. And who knows how the piping has survived the explosions. Some of this is 30 to 40 year old stuff that has just been pushed way beyond design.

I was assuming the control rooms were "OK". If not all they might do is make things worse if they don't know what is or is not working when they push buttons.

I personally think this whole China gold thing is overstated and misleading. Chinks are buying gold because it's a symbol of wealth and it is an asset, the same as indians do.

There just aren't that many assets out there with comparable attributes in this regard. I don't think that the average chinaman understands "inflation" all that well nor the broader concepts of monetary policy or the yuan peg. They just know that gold is worthful, they desire it, and with all the money flowing in China they are buying symbols of affluence, gold, cars, etc.

Take it for what it's worth. He's an ass, and adds little value to discussions on ZH. He denies being a racist, and asked for proof. So there it is. And there are many more posts similar to that one. All you have to do is search. I calls em as I sees em.

i hope the correct answer is e) something else, and that the "something else" was get reactor #6 from non-producing to producing electric. turn the puppy "on". use the juice to run the complex, or what is left of it.

actually, this idea came to the minds of japanese nukuler engineers on the 11th, but their bosses were so busy getting screamed at by the pols, and the engineers and operators were too polite to interrupt. now, they have answer the question which was directed them this morning: "Doyou have any suggestions?" the answer was only delayed by the obligatory bowing, at that point.

these rallies are now good for shorts....slowly killing the buy the dip crowd...and for all the people who were waiting for market to go down a bit to buy, they are now getting nervous, they are looking at their monthly and quarterly performance and are getting nervous and likely to be sellers on much more weakness rather than buyers. could use another set of economic data tomorrow as bad as today's

Precisely. We need one more really ugly day in the market and then i think its time to cover shorts and then look to get long just for a trade. Id like to see some momos like Robot Trader advocate shorts and pick out sectors doing badly. Thats when i know the swing trade is on.

Right. So they just connect up the power cable and presto! Everything's fine again. Are they suggesting that the pumps and associated pipework have not been in any way damaged by the explosions to date? Seems a tad unlikely.

Restoration of power will be helpful, but at this point, cooling SFPs is the primary concern.

If criticality returns to these rods, the heat and radiation levels will go apeshit. Free neutron radiation is astoundingly WORSE than gamma rays even. The additional heat would likely provoke a substantial fire among the rods, liberating fission byproducts

If life seems jolly rottenThere's something you've forgottenAnd that's to laugh and smile and dance and sing.When you're feeling in the dumpsDon't be silly chumpsJust purse your lips and whistle - that's the thing.

And...always look on the bright side of life... Always look on the light side of life...

In discussions with them it's clear they don't know the first thing about nuclear power plants, but it was clear in their minds and still is that this will render Japan and the US totally uninhabitable. I can only conclude from this that they are expressing their wishful thinking.

Fed is on the sidelines here (meltdown or not) with dollar index, commodites, inflation, and politics at a tipping point...no way they step in on non-domestic issue...gold & silver going down with the titanic!

"...questions will be asked about how the ponds wound up in this condition, when it should have been completely avoidable."

They can ask each other all the questions they want, but this ends nuclear as a power source outside what's already been built (if even that). NOBODY will be willing now to see one built anywhere near them.

What is needed is a complete change to newer technology, like pebble bed reactors, that CAN'T go critical in any way. They have a temperature range inside of which they work (i.e. produce power); below it is too cool, and above the reaction subsides - but the best part, from the safety standpoint, is that the point at which the reaction subsides is far below the melting point of the graphite balls that contain the nuclear materials. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pebble_bed_reactor

That, or thorium reactors (which can be made so that they cannot melt down) are another option. Thorium, with minor precautions, can be used in a reactor without the risk of nuclear proliferation (i.e. we don't have to worry about terrorists stealing it). http://www.thorium.tv/en/thorium_reactor/thorium_reactor_1.php

I've read that the thorium ones are impossible to contain... they're closer to the universal solvent than we've ever been and have eaten through all of the experimental containments that have been tried.

Pebble bed actually predates lightwater. The nuclear industry was steered toward what we have by the need of navies for nuclear power systems tailored to their desires. PBMRs don't throttle up or down quickly and powering ships requires that sort of modality.

What is needed is a complete change to newer technology, like pebble bed reactors, that CAN'T go critical in any way.

- - - - - - - - - - -

If they had graduated to using "The simplified boiling water reactor (SBWR)" they wouldn't be where they are:

General Electric (GE) also developed a different concept for a new boiling water reactor (BWR) at the same time as the ABWR, known as the simplified boiling water reactor (SBWR).

This smaller (600 megawatt electrical (MWe) per reactor) was notable for its incorporation—for the first time ever in a light water reactor—of "passive safety" design principles.

The concept of passive safety means that the reactor, rather than requiring the intervention of active systems, such as emergency injection pumps, to keep the reactor within safety margins, was instead designed to return to a safe state solely through operation of natural forces if a safety-related contingency developed.

So why is the the first we have heard of powerlines being ran to the plant? I mean wouldn't they have been giving us the info on the powerlines as they started days ago to keep the markets calm? Something doesn't add up here.

Hey! That's been my unspoken projection for a couple days now ... that and any outdoor gear like those rows of pump-motors one can see on the better hi-res photos ... those must be the sea-water pumps between the sea-water inlets and the buildings.

Marked-up MS Paint photos supplied if needed upon request ...

Those guys/gals have their work cut out for them ... Godspeed in their efforts.

At this point, it's pretty much beyond the point of restoring-power-will-resolve-everything-including-the-Bernank's-upset-stomach. The cooling issue will resolve itself with time, but if they haven't stored the fuel rods with enough separation, of course it could go critical if water levels recedes. I can't believe they are that ignorant though.

Washington's Blog, linked at zerohedge, has a clip from the Rachel Maddow show on these spent rods and their dangers. Maddow interviews a physicist from Princeton who says the rods are more dangerous because of their numbers and lack of containment than a core meltdown. If the rods merely heat up enough there exists the danger of release...

The problem with salt water is that it has tons of dissolved "sponges" in it. Salts, metals, etc. These sponges make it easier for it to scoop loose zoomies up and then carry that shit aloft as it boils off.

real reactor water is a lot like distilled, they try to remove all of these abosorbers from it.

A fission explosion is not in the cards. Luckily atomic explosions are not all that easy to make.

What could happen is a criticality event where the rods break apart and release large amounts of radiation into the surrounding area, and farther if fires start and carry particulate matter upwards into the sky.

U238 releases less energetic neutrons than U235. The nuclear bomb design page on wikipedia says that in bomb design they use a secondary source of neutrons to help the U238 stages of the bomb reach criticallity.

Uranium's most common isotope, U-238, is fissionable but not fissile (meaning that it cannot sustain a chain reaction by itself but can be made to fission, specifically by neutrons from a fusion reaction).

Yes I know that - but there is also plutonium in the mix here - again I repeat - has this particular mix of different potentially explosive heavy isotopes under these deteriorating conditions been accuretly modeled ?