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For example: Eliezer’s wife Brienne had Seasonal Affective Disorder.The consensus treatment for SAD is “light boxes”, very bright lamps that mimic sunshine and make winter feel more like summer.

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Maybe the city government banned Thai restaurants for some reason? We can take this beyond money-making into any competitive or potentially-competitive field. There are thousands of research biologists who would like a Nobel Prize.Either they’ll be amazing geniuses, understand a vast scope of cutting-edge material, have access to the latest lab equipment, or most likely all three.But go too far with this kind of logic, and you start accidentally proving that nothing can be bad anywhere.Consider a freshman biology student reading her textbook who suddenly feels like she’s had a deep insight into the structure of DNA, easily worthy of a Nobel. For all of them to miss a brilliant insight sitting in freshman biology would be the same failure as everybody missing a on the floor of Grand Central, or all of Wall Street missing an easy opportunity to make money off of Google, or every entrepreneur missing a great market opportunity for a Thai restaurant.

So without her finding any particular flaw in her theory, she can be pretty sure that it’s wrong – or else already discovered.

Eliezer did some digging, found that existing light boxes were still way less bright than the sun, and jury-rigged a much brighter version.

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