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Average volume and above average range. Day started like the previous days: open low, pushed up and then drifting down. Till around 17:00 when market broke below the LoD. A nice drop on high volume followed. Today the net "gain" was substantial.

The 5-day volume profile shows that the old PoCs did not change, next level of support is 143.86.

In the daily chart the market is on its way to the lower boundary of the up trend channel.

The 60-minute chart shows that market dropped below the prior support level of 144.19. This break came late in the evening at 20:00 and was encountered by buying. Volume was very high for this time of day.

A continuation of the down move is likely but some of the down candles of long lower wicks.

Market again repeated its pattern: down after the open, though no gap down, and then being pushed up. A drop below the support level of 146.86 followed - on high volume. That drop was met with buying: Market reversed and moved up almost taking out its HoD.

Market trades now near the lower boundary of its up trend channel. In the daily chart the down move looks a bit steep now.

The 5-day volume profile shows a support level around 143.80. This looks pretty strong. A correction or a sideways move may follow.

Thanks for your journal here, I´ve just started trading the Bund after the lack of volatility on the FESX drove me crazy. This product seems to auction quite cleanly, so I am looking forward to applying my VP method here.

I am curious to know how you treat the opening hours - I lean on the initial balance for analysis (not actual trading setups) and I am not sure whether to use the first hour (8:00AM-9:00AM CET), the second (like in FESX/FDAX) or perhaps a combination of the two.

In your experience, what is the best IB to use for the Bunds? My studies indicate that trading is quite robust from 8:00 CET onwards. For index futures, I used to effectively ignore the first hour of trading as volume was so minimal.

I would not call it a journal, just trying to analyze/discuss the market.

corbeste

I´ve just started trading the Bund after the lack of volatility on the FESX drove me crazy. This product seems to auction quite cleanly, so I am looking forward to applying my VP method here.

If you want real volatility take a look at the DAX future or Crude Oil Futures. Especially the latter one is very popular in this board.

corbeste

I am curious to know how you treat the opening hours - I lean on the initial balance for analysis (not actual trading setups) and I am not sure whether to use the first hour (8:00AM-9:00AM CET), the second (like in FESX/FDAX) or perhaps a combination of the two.

In your experience, what is the best IB to use for the Bunds? My studies indicate that trading is quite robust from 8:00 CET onwards. For index futures, I used to effectively ignore the first hour of trading as volume was so minimal.

Thanks,
Steve

I'm careful about trading in the first hour. You may see nice moves here, but more often the market "waits" for the open of the cash market and stock markets (9:00 CET).

I do not really use the concept of IB, at least not over a fixed time. Sometimes you see the market "build" a position over 2 - 3 hrs and then move in the other direction.

Otherwise the volume in the first hour is ok. Take a look at the screenshot. Average volume in the first hour for the last 5 days is about 8% of total volume. That's ok. The table lists the average volume for each hour and the cumulated volume.

The 5-day volume profile shows a lot of volume in the 144.00 - 144.20 area. Market could rotate up from here.

An up move on little volume - as seen in the daily chart - does not look encouraging but it can be after a solid down move. A heavy sell-off which would support this scenario has not (yet) taken place.

Tomorrow is the last day before start of the holiday season and average volume is declining.

In the weekly chart of the back-adjusted contract price has dropped to the lower boundary of the latest up trend channel. The chart pattern is inconclusive. Could show a trend reversal (possible double top) as well as the start of the next up move.

The 5-day volume profile shows two levels of support (144.60, 144.26) and two levels of resistance (145.69, 145.34). Just like last week though market has dropped since then.

In the daily chart the last two days have been up days but on low volume and range. Classically this means the market is just in a correction of the down swing. Though the beginning Holiday season distorts volume and range, both are usually low during this time.

The 60-minute chart looks a bit more positive. Market has moved back up to the "drop-off" level of around 144.70.

The Eurex Exchange will be closed 24./25./26. December. And 31.December 2012 and 01.January 2013. It will be open 27./28. December and 2./3./4. January 2013. During these days volume and range will be low. "Proper" trading will resume on 7. January or even later on 14. January

The "Fiscal Cliff" drama influences all markets, looks like a last minute compromise is priced in. A failure might cause some serious moves.

The weekly chart (back-adjusted) shows a wide range down week. Volume rose above average during these days. The down fall was caused by two things:

The last second compromise re the Fiscal Cliff threat

The possibility that the Fed will stop buying treasuries (FOMC Minutes).

The 5-day Volume Profile shows only levels of resistance, The next levels of support are around 141.90 and 141.60 (from October 2012).

The daily chart shows that the market has dropped out of the latest up trend channel.

The 60-minute chart shows that on Friday the market formed a triangle after the down move in the morning. No new impulses from US Stock Markets on that day.

For Monday there are no reports scheduled.

Stock markets made a great up move on Wednesday and then stalled. Looks like the initial reaction to the political development is over - that is the reaction by those people who were present during the last week.

How the rest returning on Monday will react is hard to judge. A continuation of the up trend for Stock Markets looks likely.