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Non-eurozone countries more confident about 2004, says study

FAR more businesses in non-eurozone member states are looking forward to 2004 with confidence than their rivals in the 12 countries using the single currency, according to a Eurochambres survey to be released today (4 December).

The Economic Survey 2004 by EU chambers of commerce group said confidence across the EU and the ten countries due to join the Union next May is also on the rise – although the prospect of a quick fall in jobless rates is less likely.

However, “non-eurozone countries continue to out-perform the eurozone countries”, with 40.6% more firms in the former group saying they were optimistic for the coming year than were pessimistic.

That compares to a balance of just 15.9% optimistic firms in the eurozone. The ‘feel-good’ factor is present in all three euro-out countries, the group adds.

The results is likely to boost anti-euro campaigns in the UK and Denmark, and reaffirm anti-euro sentiment in Sweden, where the single currency was rejected in September’s referendum.

Overall, the survey showed that 21.7% more firms said they were optimistic for the coming year than were pessimistic. That compares to just 13.2% in a similar poll conducted a year ago.

The survey of 100,000 companies from 26 European countries showed that current member states (22.5%) are slightly more positive than the ones set to join next year (21%).

Luxembourg, and new entrant the Czech Republic, recorded more gloominess than optimism. By contrast, German firms are less downbeat than they were a year ago. Business’ turnover is expected to “develop positively” next year, thanks largely to a gradual recovery in the EU’s biggest member state.

On the jobs front, “the situation is sluggish and has worsened”, the survey warns, with firms in only half the countries expecting an overall improvement in employment plans.

New job prospects in Poland, Bulgaria, Malta and Cyprus will help these countries buck the trend, the survey stated.

Despite the overall upward trend, Eurochambres President Christoph Leitl said the Union still lags well behind the US – which is on course for a year-on-year growth rate of around 8%.

He said EU policymakers and the European Central Bank should act to shrink the dole queues and to spur the economy further. “Growth expectations in the United States are twice as high than in Europe, while interest rates are half the ones here,” he added.