Root Causes Can Be Bypassed or Suppressed, But Doing So Ensures Lasting Instability

Failure
to address root causes may mean that instability and violence will
outlast any individual armed group. Yet there is little appetite for the
effort required to address root causes in Iraq and Syria. Current
strategy has thus taken a middle-ground approach that does not truly
reflect U.S. understanding of irregular war.

The research centered on the two prominent theories about root
causes in Iraq and Syria, disenfranchisement and the effects of
ethnosectarian discord. While the latter does have an influence, but the
deeper cause in these two countries is disenfranchisement from the
central governments and from the protections they should be providing
their entire populations.

Debate over what to do about disenfranchisement is growing; this
report argues shifting toward political action while maintaining
military pressure against IS.

And among the key findings:

The best way to reduce and, eventually, end insurgency and terrorism
is to address root causes or, at least, to establish legitimate and
capable governance. Stability is most consistent and enduring when it
emerges naturally from popular satisfaction with governance and other
socioeconomic conditions, rather than from government oppression or
military action by external powers.

The legitimated stability option acknowledges that the best way to
reduce and, eventually, end insurgency and terrorism is to address root
causes or, at least, to establish legitimate and capable governance. The
aim of this strategy is to establish legitimate governments in Iraq and
Syria. Each government would be capable of addressing Sunni
disenfranchisement while protecting the rights of all other groups.
Ultimately, strong and legitimate central governments — perhaps
federated or confederated to address regional challenges within each
state — will reduce the current, dangerous emphasis on ethnosectarian
identity politics and violence.

That may be shocking to some.

We've been saying it here for how many years?

Prepare a list for what you need
Before you sign away the deed
'Cause it's not going to stop
It's not going to stop
It's not going to stop
Till you wise up
-- written by Aimee Mann,
appears on the soundtracks to JERRY MAGUIRE and MAGNOLIA (remember that
Aimee's latest album MENTAL ILLNESS came out a few weeks ago -- Kat raved over it here)

Wise up.

When will the 'saviors' of Iraq wise up?

They've refused to so far.

The US has been 'helping' Iraq, for example, since the summer of 2014 with the Islamic State.

After months of training, soldiers from the 1st Armored Division’s
headquarters are ready to deploy and get on with their new mission.About
400 soldiers from the division’s Headquarters and Headquarters
Battalion, with a small contingent from Division Artillery, will deploy
to Iraq in June.The team will include Fort Bliss and 1st Armored
Division commanding general Maj. Gen. Robert “Pat” White and division
Command Sgt. Maj. Danny Day.

The US government has provided troops, weapons, F16s and money since the summer of 2014.

All with no strings attached.

Every bit of aid -- financial and military -- should have come with strings.

Every bit of aid should have been conditioned upon the government moving forward on political reconciliation.

Why didn't that happen?

Among other reasons because John Kerry didn't want to be Secretary of
State and work on diplomacy. He wanted to play toy soldiers and end
public life as a dottering fool.

Congratulations, John, you succeeded.

But Barack was president.

And he noted June 19, 2014 that the only way forward for Iraq was a political solution to the crises.

He said it publicly.

He just refused to follow up.

Imagine what might have happened if a diplomatic mission had been led by John Kerry?

A diplomatic surge?

Imagine where things might stand now.

It's not as if this wasn't obvious some time ago.

From the November 6, 2014 snapshot:A government worth fighting for is what's needed and what Baghdad has failed to provide Iraqis with.

Hundreds of thousands of foreign troops -- US, UK, etc -- had to spend
years on the ground to give the government a chance to do something, a
chance to prove it was legitimate.

It failed repeatedly.

Now Barack's making the same mistake Bully Boy Bush made. Time and
again, the focus was going to be political. The 'surge'? Remember that
failed effort?

Bully Boy Bush said the increased number of US troops sent into Iraq
would provide the Iraqi government with space to work towards political
solutions.

But it never happened.

The 'surge' was a failure.

Not because of the US military. The military did all it was asked.

But it did that, in Bully Boy Bush's own words, to create a space for
Iraqi politicians to move forward on issues facing the country.

Barack has wasted over a half billion dollars bombing since August 8th and there's nothing to show for it.

There's no political solution.

Barack's wasting the money of the US taxpayer.

He's wasting in on war, yes.

But he's wasting it on idiotic, stupid moves.

The US State Dept is supposed to be over diplomacy.

But they apparently don't know how to do their job or else they're to busy trying to become the Defense Dept.

At another useless State Dept press briefing, the talk was all about the Islamic State.

Not a thing about political solutions, not a thing about diplomacy.

Instead of doing what was needed, the US government has made the same mistake it did with the surge.