ECRI’s
recession call isn’t based on just one or two leading indexes,
but on dozens of specialized leading indexes, including the U.S.
Long Leading Index, which was the first to turn down – before
the Arab Spring and Japanese earthquake – to be followed by
downturns in the Weekly Leading Index and other shorter-leading
indexes.

...the most reliable forward-looking
indicators are now collectively behaving as they did on the
cusp of full-blown recessions, not “soft landings.”