Serbia won’t let go

When Kosovo declared independence on 17 February 2008, its premier Hashim Thaçi boasted that “a hundred” countries would recognise the new state within a few weeks. Kosovo’s western backers were sure the process would not take long. Even Serbia had no great hopes of preventing recognition and responded with moderation: it just recalled its ambassadors for a few months from the first countries to recognise Kosovo.

Yet by this August only 69 of the 192 members of the UN had done so. This prevents Kosovo from joining almost all international institutions and organisations – an unexpected success for Serbia. Serbia knew it had two powerful allies on the UN Security Council, Russia and China; but most opposition to the recognition of Kosovo has come from African and Asian countries, many of which face secessionist claims (active or latent) and regret the precedent. This explains the support that Serbia has received from Morocco, Indonesia and, in the EU, from Spain.

The list of countries that have failed to recognise Kosovo is surprising: almost all of Latin America, three quarters of the African Union countries and most of the members of the Organisation of the Islamic Conference (OIC). In the case of the OIC, anti-American sentiment has proved stronger than solidarity with a country with a Muslim majority: Kosovo’s secession is seen as the result of a decision taken in Washington. Only countries with strong ties to the US have recognised or said they will recognise Kosovo – Afghanistan, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain and Turkey (which has historically had privileged relations with Kosovo).

Maghreb countries and avowed opponents of US policy such as Syria, Libya or Iran have sided with Serbia. This has allowed Belgrade to ride the wave, making a few diplomatic gestures – as on the occasion of the visit of the Palestinian Authority chairman Mahmoud Abbas. Standing side by side with Abbas, Serbia’s head of state, Boris Tadić, reaffirmed his commitment to the UN (...)

(1) Kosovo has only been able to join the IMF and the World Bank (in June 2009). The voting rights of the member states of these organisations are proportionate to the size of their economy, which gives a decisive advantage to the major western powers that are in favour of Kosovo’s accession.

(2) The Brioni islands, where Tito had his summer residence, are part of Croatia.