Clearing the FogSimon Hayes and James Ashley, World Economics, June 2010Official statistical agencies produce a number of data series that are more timely and of higher frequency than the published estimates of GDP growth... More

Economic ForecastsPrakash Loungani & Jair Rodriguez, World Economics, June 2008Will the US and other economies slip into recessions this year? Which economies will decouple from a global slowdown? The authors suggest that the exc.. More

"There Will Be Growth in the Spring"Prakash Loungani, World Economics, March 2002Forecasters are currently echoing Chauncey Gardner’s words that “There will be
growth in the spring”. Or certainly by the summer. Are such forecasts .. More

How Clear is the Crystal Ball?Prakash Loungani, World Economics, March 2001Two salie nt features of growth forecasts are discussed. First, recessions generally arrive before the forecast. Slowdowns are predicted but forecaste.. More

Demographic Risk in Industrial SocietiesSylvester J. Schieber & Paul S. Hewitt, World Economics, December 2000There is a growing awareness of the aging of populations around the world and the implications for national retirement programs. In most cases, estim.. More