1. He is the best horse in the race

It sounds obvious but the modern National is a race for horses with class as well as stamina and Synchronised has the biggest burden of the 40 runners for a good reason. Before the changes to the course that have been made over the last 20 years it was a great leveller but horses good enough to carry top weight a couple of decades ago would now struggle to get into the field. Better horses are running and also starting to win. Eighteen out of 19 winners between 1989 and 2008 carried less than 11st but the last three have all carried 11st or more.

2. Tony McCoy is on board

There are jockeys with a better record around Aintree's big fences than Tony McCoy – Ruby Walsh, for instance, has yet to suffer a fall in 10 starts in the National – but none who are as well suited to Synchronised's style of running as the most successful National Hunt rider of all time. McCoy worked hard to keep Synchronised with the field in the early part of the Gold Cup last month before powering to the lead in the final two furlongs and is the ideal rider to keep his mount positioned for a similar thrust today.

3. Stamina: he stays all day

In December Jonjo O'Neill, Synchronised's trainer, still believed that the Welsh National, a race over three and three-quarter miles that is often run in bottomless ground, offered the ideal conditions for Synchronised. He has since won two of the season's most prestigious Grade One chases, the Lexus at Leopardstown and the Gold Cup itself, but stamina remains a key reason why he is a leading contender. When others are starting to drop away Synchronised will keep pounding along and that will be key in today's race.

4. The harder race is already won

It is 78 years since Golden Miller became the first, and so far only, horse to win the Gold Cup and the Grand National in the same season but, while he was undoubtedly one of the greatest chasers of all time, it is difficult to argue that Synchronised is touched with quite the same brilliance over fences. Yet Synchronised still managed to come home in front in chasing's championship race, so could still be improving, and today's marathon trip at Aintree may bring out better yet.

5. The nature of the 2012 National

It may look like scarcely ordered mayhem in which the only constant factor is that they all point in the same direction but sheer chance, while still a factor in the National, is a little less significant than it was. The old Becher's Brook, for instance, could catch out a horse even if it judged and jumped it perfectly but the unfair elements of the challenge have been ironed out and there is slightly less chance that bad luck, such as being brought down, will intervene.

Forty horses will line up on Saturday for the world's most famous horse race, the Grand National at Aintree. Chris Cook tells you what to expect from each of the runners in our unique video guide. Click on the horses' to find out your chances.