Computer models predict Obama victory

Using computer forecast models, political scientists predict Sen. Barack Obama will win the popular vote presidency over Sen. John McCain on Nov. 4. Of course, the winner of the popular vote does not always win the presidency; it is the Electoral College that picks the winner.

Forecast models developed by prominent political scientists, some made as much as nine months ago, predict a victory for Senator Barack Obama over Senator John McCain in the two-party contest for the popular vote in the 2008 U.S. presidential election.

Obama is predicted to win an average of 52% of the vote with an 80% probability that he will gain more than half the total two-party popular vote. Six out of the nine presidential election forecasts predict an Obama victory with popular vote totals ranging from 50.1% to 58.2%, while two predict a race too close to call and one predicts a narrow McCain victory.

Lisa Vorderbrueggen

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Lisa – You should take a look at FiveThirtyEight.com. Much more detailed statistical analysis of the polling data, updated every day. Nate (the guy behind the site) weights each poll based on past performance, consistency and other factors, then runs 10,000 simulations of the election based on that data.

I had heard about this site a few days ago from a high-tech colleague of mine, so thanks for reminding me to check it out.

As of a few minutes ago, FiveThirtyEight.com says Obama is winning 345 electoral votes to McCain’s 193. I’m going to add this site to my favorites and track it … if Nate’s right, this will be a blow-out.

Brian Lawrence

Nate’s already been right about the Tampa Bay Rays and the Dem primaries in NC and Indiana.

Alex

Love 538. I went there for the numbers but stayed for their coverage of the campaigns’ ground games.