What Percentage of the Population Is Gay?

by Jennifer Robison, Contributing Editor

In his 1948 book, Sexual Behavior in the Human Male,
Alfred Kinsey shocked the world by announcing that 10% of the male
population is gay. A 1993 Janus Report estimated that nine percent
of men and five percent of women had more than "occasional"
homosexual relationships. The 2000 U.S. Census Bureau found that
homosexual couples constitute less than 1% of American households.
The Family Research Report says "around 2-3% of men, and 2% of
women, are homosexual or bisexual." The National Gay and Lesbian
Task Force estimates three to eight percent of both sexes. So who's
right -- what percentage of the population is homosexual?

It may be that no one will ever know for sure. To some people,
homosexuality is a matter of perception and definition.
Furthermore, many people have trouble admitting their homosexuality
to themselves, much less to a researcher. But when Gallup asked
Americans for their best estimate of the American gay and lesbian
population, the results made all the figures mentioned above look
conservative.

Every Fifth Person -- at Least

In August 2002*, Gallup asked Americans, in an open-ended
format, to estimate the percentage of American men and the
percentage of American women who are homosexual. The average
estimates were that 21% of men are gay and 22% of women are
lesbians. In fact, roughly a quarter of the public thinks more than
25% of men and 25% of women are homosexual. It should be pointed
out, too, that many Americans (at least one in six) could not give
an estimate.

Male respondents tend to give lower estimates of both the male
and female homosexual population than female respondents do. The
average estimates among male respondents are that 16% of men and
21% of women are homosexual. Among female respondents, the average
estimates are that 26% of men and 23% of women are homosexual.
Somewhat interestingly, both sexes believe there are more
homosexuals in the opposite sex than in their own sex.

Portrayals in Pop Culture

Before the 1980s, the few representations of homosexuality in
popular culture tended to consist of potentially dangerous social
deviants (think Norman Bates in Psycho). Since then,
however, the portrayal of gay characters in pop culture have become
far more numerous and mostly positive. That growing representation
may have spurred growing acceptance -- and inflated population
estimates. In the last 10 years, the number of Americans saying
they feel homosexuality should be considered an acceptable
alternative lifestyle has gone from 38% (June 1992) to 51% (May
2002).

"Seeing ourselves reflected positively encourages gay people to
come out," said Cathy Renna, news media director for the Gay &
Lesbian Alliance Against Defamation (GLAAD). "And when people know
real gay men and lesbians it increases their level of understanding
and acceptance." If you doubt that Ellen, Rosie and others have had
an effect on Americans' acceptance of homosexuality, consider this
-- MTV and Showtime are about to launch a cable channel directed at
the homosexual market. They estimate that gays and lesbians make up
6.5% of television's audience.

Key Points

Whether increased acceptance of homosexuality has led to an
upsurge in the number of positive media portrayals of gay
characters or vice versa, one result seems to be that Americans now
tend to overestimate the gay population in America. While most
expert estimates place America's homosexual population at 10% or
less, Americans tend to guess that the number is higher, around
20%.

*Results based on telephone interviews with 489 (for those
estimating percentages of lesbian women) and 518 (for those
estimating percentages of gay men) conducted May 6-9, 2002. For
results based on the total sample, one can say with 95% confidence
that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±5%.

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