Moving from principles to action for energy supply that mitigates
against climate change requires a long-term perspective. Energy
infrastructure takes time to build up; new energy technologies take
time to develop. Policy shifts often also need many years to take
effect. In most world regions the transformation from fossil to
renewable energies will require additional investment and higher
supply costs over about twenty years

energy demand by sector

The future development pathways for Middle East’s energy demand are shown in Figure 5.70 for the Reference and the Energy [R]evolution scenario. Under the Reference scenario, total primary energy demand in Middle East increases by 104% from the current 24,750 PJ/a to about 50,600 PJ/a in 2050. The energy demand in 2050 in the Energy [R]evolution scenario increases by 9% compared to current consumption and it is expected by 2050 to reach 27,100 PJ/a.

Under the Energy [R]evolution scenario, electricity demand in the industry as well as in the residential, and service sectors is expected to stagnate after 2020 (see Figure 5.71). Because of the growing use of electric vehicles however, electricity consumption increases strongly to 1,958 TWh/a by 2050 just 10% below the electricity demand of the Reference case.

Efficiency gains in the heat supply sector are larger than in the electricity sector. Under the Energy [R]evolution scenario, final demand for heat supply can eventually even be reduced significantly (see Figure 5.73). Compared to the Reference scenario, consumption equivalent to 1,939 PJ/a is avoided through efficiency measures by 2050. As a result of energyrelated renovation of the existing stock of residential buildings, as well as the introduction of low energy standards and ‘passive houses’ for new buildings, enjoyment of the same comfort and energy services will be accompanied by a much lower future energy demand.