Friday, January 30, 2009

GDP shrinks 3.8%.Worst economic performance since the Volcker Recession. Especially in light of this which I wrote almost a year and a half ago and my projections this recession will be worse than the Volcker Recession but not as bad as the Great Depression.

I may not be rich, I may not be popular and I may not have a job, but I'm right.

Wednesday, January 28, 2009

So I get a call from one of the districts I'm teaching at and guess what;

TWICE AS MANY WOMEN IN ALL THREE OF MY DANCE CLASSES AS MEN!

Now, I know I've pointed this out before. And I have berated all you men to no effect in an attempt to get you off your lazy asses and go learn how to dance.

But all I get is;

"But I don't know how to dance. " - No sh!t Sherlock! That's why you take the class!

"But I don't have a date." - DUH! Like you need one?

"I don't like to dance." - Tough. Besides, who said anything about liking to dance. There's no better way to meet nicer, accomplished, EMPLOYED women. I can't count the number of dames I've dated over the years LITERALLY because there was so many of them ALL BECAUSE OF DANCE!

Now I'm dead serious about this. I know not all of you male Captain Capitalismites out there can attend, but you local guys have no excuse. Contact me here. I NEED MEN TO SIGN UP FOR CLASSES AS EVEN AS SOON AS TONIGHT. And I have plenty more classes starting in the near future.

Isn't the idea of education or having a school to congregate masses into one area so you can efficiently educate the masses? In otherwords, if you can pack 700 people into an auditorium, have one speaker with power point slides, hand outs, etc., you can save a ton of money on teachers and the cost of education would drop?

I only bring it up because I'm sick and tired about hearing from teachers that they have (GASP) "30 students in my class!"

Yeah, so? You can't handle 30 kids?

Or how colleges and the teachers union always brag/cheer for low student teacher ratios. "We have a 8:1 student teacher ratio."

Well then by that logic, wouldn't the ideal educational model be a 1:1 ratio? A teacher per student? If this is the case, then the public teachers union should be all for home schooling. Can't get much of a lower ratio than that.

Now I do know I'm ignoring some things;

1. Back in the 1950's you could have I bet 100 kids in a classroom and the teacher would have been able to educate them just fine. The reason teachers can't do it today, that no matter how skilled they may be, the parents fail to teach their children respect and how to behave. Additionally, with teachers being prohibited from disciplining children (and by discipline, I mean Captain style discipline, like belts, daily beatings, yelling, insulting them, push ups, running, old school drill instructor discipline) they have no fear nor incentive to behave.

2. A class size of 700 you would merely be a lecturer at that point. There is some physical limits where you have to yell or the rooms aren't big enough.

3. Homeschoolers obviously don't make as good as teachers as professionally trained teachers with education degrees...even though their kids score better...but that's not the point! They don't have their license = not good teacher = Bushitler = end of discussion = Obama Ponies.

But in the grand scheme of things as well as from the conceptual idea of education, I can't see why a 100:1 student teacher ratio isn't achievable. I don't see how having more teacher per student would materially benefit a student that is appropriately trained by his parents to not only behave, but to study. A student that pays attention to the lecturer, and let's not forget advances in LCD projectors, books, etc., can just as well be educated if he has 4 peers in the room or 100 if he sets his mind to actually paying attention and studying. Even your Captain is restudying calculus (GASP) WITHOUT A TEACHER!

NOOOOOOO!

He's just reading from the book and (the teacher union's worst nightmare) TEACHING HIMSELF!!!

NOOOOOOOOO!!!!!

A student teacher ratio of infinity!

NOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!

But of course the popular fad nowadays is to just throw money at education even though it doesn't work. And the dirty deep down secret is the money's never been meant for the kids.

OK, I've heard it too many times and I would like to pose a theory to all the aspiring, junior, deputy, official and otherwise economists out there.

Last night, heard the ole;

"I have a friend who just found out her husband is gay and they're getting a divorce."

Now, I am not disputing that there are men out there who are gay who settled down, had kids and realized he was not being truthful to himself, couldn't keep up the charade, thus compelling a divorce. But it seems to my little eye that this excuse is being used a lot more. Not because there are more gay men who are getting married, but because I think more men are realizing this is the ultimate way out of a divorce without losing half your assets.

If you are a straight guy and your marriage is on the rocks and you cite irreconcilable differences, then you are guaranteed to lose half your net worth.

However, if you claim to be gay, whether you are or not, the women tend to be more forgiving, if not, supportive. Alas, it seems to me to be the ultimate way to get out of a marriage without losing everything you've worked for.

Monday, January 26, 2009

This is an OUTSTANDING book on the housing market, the economy and this entire financial crisis we've gotten ourselves into. It not only explains things to the average person in everyday normal language, but is also a very good read. There are entertaining and engaging stories about working in the banking industry, corrupt real estate developers and the feds. But above all it has a wry and dry humor about it.

This is an OUTSTANDING book on the housing market, the economy and this entire financial crisis we've gotten ourselves into. It not only explains things to the average person in everyday normal language, but is also a very good read. There are entertaining and engaging stories about working in the banking industry, corrupt real estate developers and the feds. But above all it has a wry and dry humor about it.

This is an OUTSTANDING book on the housing market, the economy and this entire financial crisis we've gotten ourselves into. It not only explains things to the average person in everyday normal language, but is also a very good read. There are entertaining and engaging stories about working in the banking industry, corrupt real estate developers and the feds. But above all it has a wry and dry humor about it.

This is an OUTSTANDING book on the housing market, the economy and this entire financial crisis we've gotten ourselves into. It not only explains things to the average person in everyday normal language, but is also a very good read. There are entertaining and engaging stories about working in the banking industry, corrupt real estate developers and the feds. But above all it has a wry and dry humor about it.

This is an OUTSTANDING book on the housing market, the economy and this entire financial crisis we've gotten ourselves into. It not only explains things to the average person in everyday normal language, but is also a very good read. There are entertaining and engaging stories about working in the banking industry, corrupt real estate developers and the feds. But above all it has a wry and dry humor about it.

This is an OUTSTANDING book on the housing market, the economy and this entire financial crisis we've gotten ourselves into. It not only explains things to the average person in everyday normal language, but is also a very good read. There are entertaining and engaging stories about working in the banking industry, corrupt real estate developers and the feds. But above all it has a wry and dry humor about it.

This is an OUTSTANDING book on the housing market, the economy and this entire financial crisis we've gotten ourselves into. It not only explains things to the average person in everyday normal language, but is also a very good read. There are entertaining and engaging stories about working in the banking industry, corrupt real estate developers and the feds. But above all it has a wry and dry humor about it.

This is an OUTSTANDING book on the housing market, the economy and this entire financial crisis we've gotten ourselves into. It not only explains things to the average person in everyday normal language, but is also a very good read. There are entertaining and engaging stories about working in the banking industry, corrupt real estate developers and the feds. But above all it has a wry and dry humor about it.

This is an OUTSTANDING book on the housing market, the economy and this entire financial crisis we've gotten ourselves into. It not only explains things to the average person in everyday normal language, but is also a very good read. There are entertaining and engaging stories about working in the banking industry, corrupt real estate developers and the feds. But above all it has a wry and dry humor about it.

This is an OUTSTANDING book on the housing market, the economy and this entire financial crisis we've gotten ourselves into. It not only explains things to the average person in everyday normal language, but is also a very good read. There are entertaining and engaging stories about working in the banking industry, corrupt real estate developers and the feds. But above all it has a wry and dry humor about it.

It shows the monetary base (the actual cash money supply) skyrocketing up as idiots in Washington think somehow printing more money will save this economy.

But to get a real feel for how much money is being printed you have to compare it to GDP, the amounts of goods and services we're producing;

Typically, the monetary base as a percent of GDP has hovered around 6% during times or relative peace and absence of war or Great Depressions. However, many thanks to the sub prime dead beats, socialist housing policies, nepotism and cronyism in the incompetent financial sector, as well as simple greedy bankers, the monetary base has effectively doubled in just months to over 12% GDP.

Now, I know this is ignoring other measures of the money supply such as M2, M3, and the long abandoned L, but this chart provides an excellent explanation as to how inflation occurs and why you just can't print off more money. The reason why is it juxtaposes the two main factors that determine inflation;

1. The supply of money (Monetary Base)2. How much stuff we're producing (GDP)

Understand that money has no value in itself. It is just worthless coinage or paper. The only real reason money has value is that something can be bought with it. So for example, you can print off a trillion dollars for every person in America, but without a proportionate increase in the amount of X-Boxes, cars, food, clothing, housing, etc., "stuff" nobody is any richer. Ergo, all you do in printing money is increasing the amount of money to buy the same amount of goods (GDP, or as I like to call it "stuff"). Therefore, you have more money per unit of "stuff" which is the definition of inflation.

Now, as I said before, it is a little more complicated when you factor in things such as other money supply measures, but not much. The founding principle stays the same;

If you print off more money without a corresponding increase in the amount of stuff (GDP) you produce you will have inflation.

Get ready for the 70's all over again folks. It's what you pay for when you believe in hope and change and flowers and Skittles and free lunches and clouds and fairies and unicorns social security.

Sunday, January 25, 2009

In a shameless effort to boost traffic as well as boost readership I declare today (Monday technically, even though this is being written on Sunday), the officialFORWARD THE CAPTAIN DAY!

Yes, during this dearth of holidays between New Year's and St. Patrick's Day, why not engage in excessive mirth and jovial times by forwarding the Captain to friends, family, foes and those you are relatively indifferent about!

You will not only be doing me a favor, but spreading the good word of the Captain and teaching those about the merits of capitalism (or pissing off leftists which they richly deserve). Scroll below or just search the archives for a favorite post of yours and forward it to those that might be interested. And, as is the thousand year old traditional of Forward the Captain Day, you are hereby authorized to pour yourself a martini as you have done your part to fight ignorance and socialism.

I walked into Office Max today which was right next to the now bankrupt Circuit City, and when I walked in I immediately noticed that it was like one of those independent gas stations that are purchased by foreign immigrants who do not have the training in maximizing their space for inventory and thus the isles are sparse, spread apart, inefficiently organized and more or less being underutilized.

It led me to believe like it's neighbor Office Max may be going through a bit of a difficult time during this recession and may not be too far behind in terms of bankruptcy. But as I was at the check out lane, I noticed something that was about to become as irrelevant as global warming;

Office Max's "community responsibility statement."

It was some gobbledygook about serving the community and working with non-profit charitable partners to blah blah blah and it reminded me of a rule I learned from one of the few experienced professors I had in college;

"Business should stick to business."

Understand that as an economic entity, like labor, like government, businesses have a purpose. Their purpose is to make a provide a service or good to the population at the cheapest price possible, all the while attempting to make a profit. Their purpose, despite the brainwashing 20 something business majors are told, is not to be everything to every one. It's not to be a charity. It's not to be a non-profit. It's not to be a savior. It's not to be a vehicle used for employment. It is to be an entity that makes it possible for humans to consume the services and products they need necessary for the sustainability and enhancement of their lives. It's based more or less on the simple economic concept of the division of labor. And now that Office Max has been mismanaged or perhaps tried to deviate from its sole purpose of being a business, this branch not only looks like it will be shut down, but will also now be unable to continue its "community service."

Sadly, and to the dismay of leftists who don't understand basic economics, the shutting down of this branch will have more costs than just the loss of charitable contributions to the "community." The closing of the branch now has resulted in the loss of jobs and now has given me and customers in the area and added inconvenience of having to drive further to find the same products.

Another company does this and even prides itself on the "community service" it does and that is Target. Target donates (I recall) 3% of its pretax profits to whatever charities, schools and other community causes in the local community its at

I stopped shopping at Target because I know they do this as a marketing ploy, tugging at the heart strings naive people who want to think they are doing "something for the community" while shopping at Target.

The sad truth is that as this recession clamps down and pressures margins, Target is going to have to rethink this faux-altruistic marketing ploy. Wal-Mart is not even immune to the effects of this economy and given people are going to have to cut back on spending, Target will have to make its goods and services cheap as possible, not only to remain competitive, but to survive.

Of course this will come at hoots and hollers as people who were loyal to Target because of this charity will complain they are no longer helping the community, but one should ask themselves whether Target serves the community more by all the jobs it provides and the products it sells and being a BUSINESS or by being a cute little faux charity.

Well, if the planet was actually warming, then people might be concerned. But since it's cooling and these Global Warming Zealot Psychos are so desperate to keep their religion going they've had to convert it to "global climate change" I don't think the population is THAT stupid to believe in it any more, let alone give a damn;

Given they're bantering about a potential $1.2 trillion DEFICIT (not debt people) in 2009, I wanted to put that into perspective to show you just how effed we are and just how serious this financial crisis is.

As a percent of GDP, the federal deficit (assuming projections are true) would be about 9%. This is the highest peace time deficit in recorded history. The reason that is an important distinction to make is that when your country is threatened then it is probably a good reason for the government to go into deficit spending (as it did in WWI and WWII). However, even without a war (please don't tell me how much we're spending on the war on terror, it pales in comparison to WWI and WWII) we as a people have so mismanaged this country that we're now facing the worst peace time deficit. This should bring shame to the nation in that it isn't an outside force causing us to spend such an inordinate amount, but rather our revoltingly poor financial habits and insistence of being entitled little spoiled brats;

Furthermore, it gets worse for reasons thrice;

1. This is just a projection. The federal government has this nasty habit of spending more than projected, so we're more likely looking at 10-11% GDP of a deficit in 2009. Not to mention GDP will be shrinking instead of growing so your denominator will make this worse.

2. This is just the beginning. Given Obama's desire to make FDR look stingy and bribe the masses into voting for him...err...I mean..."finance hope and change" I will make the crazy prediction of the federal budget deficit actually reaching 15-17% GDP under his first (and only) term.

3. If you don't think the deficit is due to a behavioral change in people's spending habits and a testament to our sloth and laziness, just look at the trend starting in 1950 to today. As the Walt Kowolski's of the world die off and are replaced by the Jim Morrisons, Kurt Cobains and Paris Hiltons of the world, it seems nobody cares to work for what they want anymore, preferring instead to borrow the money and saddle future generations with their debts.

I'll say it again, time to get off this ship. One of my next posts will be on how any entrepreneurial country could make off like a bandit if they opened their borders to capitalist, conservatives and other right leaning political refugees from the US who tend to still insist on producing wealth.

Monday, January 19, 2009

I know everybody is focused on the housing market and the financial crisis. But as I've pointed out before, what we're suffering now is NOTHING compared to what we're about to get hit with in terms of social security and medicare. Additionally, this also says nothing about the issue of pension funding. Social security is the government pension for all of us. But private pensions, especially in light of the sudden 40% drop in stock prices, are just as woefully underfunded.

I've learned that when trying to argue with a liberal citing stats and unemployment figures and trying to convey concepts like underemployment is pointless not in that they don't have the intellectual ability to understand such things, they just simply choose not to expend the effort to.

Ergo why I like to convey economic concepts simply in that that is the best way to do so. So here is a little tidbit that will come in handy when you're having your political discussions or arguments with family and friends that are bound to occur;

Barack Obama has consistently increased the number of jobs he's going to "create." First it was 2 million. Then 2.5 million. I think I heard 3 million, and who knows where it is now.

Now fine, dandy, grand. Obama is going to "create" jobs. But does this not assume it is within the power of Obama (or the president) to just "create" jobs? And if so, then why stop at 3 million? Why not 4 million or 10 million?

It behooves the question why worry about a recession at all if the president can just simply "create" jobs?

It's along the same line as the logic of minimum wage. Well if $5.75 isn't enough, why not $7? And if $7/hour, heck, why not mandate everybody is paid $50/hr? That would solve poverty.

The problem is (and this is going to be the BIGGEST crushing blow to Obama zealots) is that the president is not all powerful and cannot just simply "create" jobs. The people do. The economy does. The market does.

Sure the president can develop policies that will foster jobs. Sure the president can pursue fiscal policy that will create the environment by which jobs are created. But it is not in the power of the president to just "create" jobs. Furthermore, Obama's economic policies could not be further from job creation. They will, if anything, destroy jobs.

Now I know that this may be a bit much for your standard leftist to accept, but I think it's well within their intellectual ability to understand AND ADMIT that it isn't just a simple matter of "creating" jobs. This will hopefully put them down the path towards investigating how exactly jobs are created and instead of just spewing words that they'd "like to create more jobs" they actually put forth the intellectual effort to find out how.

Sunday, January 18, 2009

Here's an article from one of the best reporters in the (soon to be no more) Star Tribune, Chris Serres. It's about the "community banks" here in Minnesota which presumably were above the fray when it came to the housing debacle. As Chris and analysts point out, it couldn't be further from the truth. Matter of fact, I contend it was the community banks that sent the market into "hyper-over supply" in my book, which of course you should no doubt buy and read.

In any case, here is an excerpt from my book written nearly a year ago;

____________________

Though banks were also doing their fair share of “enabling” unworthy borrowers to buy homes, their primary contribution to the housing crash was from a different angle.For while mortgage lenders and mortgage brokers were artificially inflating demand, the traditional commercial banks were artificially inflating supply.

This is not by coincidence in that the nature of real estate lends itself well to being oversupplied.The reason is the numbers.Since bankers get paid on commission, usually a percentage of the total deal amount, the larger the deal, then the larger the commission.This makes real estate deals particularly appetizing in that unlike the commission on a $25,000 operating line of credit, the commission on a $25 million condoplex deal is infinitely more appealing and for roughly the same amount of work.Because of this anybody who stands to earn a percentage commission on the deal (bankers, management, investment brokers, etc), lobbied heavily for such deals to get approved, even if they are doomed to fail.

However, this resulted in a lopsided business.Since the majority of the deals were in real estate, the majority of the bank’s portfolio ended up in real estate.This was bad position to be in as, just like any other portfolio, you want to diversify your holdings to lower your risk.But despite the risks of having an overexposure to real estate, and especially in light of a potential housing crash, the commissions on real estate deals were so lucrative, the incentive to do them would more often than not triumph over those risks.This effectively eliminated any stops or regulators which would normally curb the amount of housing entering on the market and resulted in a flood of deals that were doomed to failure.

But while the sheer size of real estate deals helped bring about an oversupply of housing in a self-fulfilling sort of way, there was another odd incentive at play that would result in even more housing.A pecking order.

Because of their size and reputation, large, established commercial banks in a sense “get the pick of the litter” when it comes to loans.They have billions of dollars in capital, they can offer the best rates and they have the labor resources to originate, service and administer your loan.They can outdo their smaller competition because of economies to scale and therefore cherry pick the most profitable loans.

And not that there aren’t any good loans left to do, but as you go down the pecking order from large, established banks to medium sized regional banks to smaller community banks the quality and caliber of the loans erode.So by the time the loan gets to the smaller community banks it has already been passed on by several banks above.

In this sense the smaller community banks eat the crumbs that fall off the table of the larger banks.But despite their smaller size and despite being at the bottom of the pecking order these banks punched above their own weight when it came to oversupplying the market with housing.The reason was multi-fold.

One, the real estate deals these smaller banks were getting were doomed to fail.The market was already oversupplied and other banks had already passed up on these deals.If a bank had already turned down the loan, this spoke volumes as other analysts had looked at it and believed it would not be paid back.However…

Two, despite the impossibility of the deal, bankers were paid on commission.So even if the deal was unlikely to be paid back, they would still lobby for it, and more often than not, get it approved.

Three, these smaller community banks would salivate over multi-million dollar deals simply because they were multi-million dollar deals.To a large national bank a $4 million deal is nothing grandiose.But to a small town community bank $4 million is a large and coveted piece of business.Not because it’s a good loan, but because it’s a big loan.

The results were predictable.Despite the loan being a bad loan, despite it being passed on once, twice or thrice before, these small banks could only see the loan for its largess and potential commission check.And even though it was practically guaranteed to fail, these banks would approve these loans anyway.

But in doing these loans the damage these banks caused was disproportionately large for their size as all they managed to do was “hyper”-supply an already gluttonously-supplied level of housing.Furthermore, the amount of housing they would bring to the market was not insignificant for what they lacked in size they made up for in numbers.If it was just one small time community bank approving a couple of bad loans then there would be no consequence.But if 50 small time banks start approving hand-me-down loans, it was the equivalent of a large commercial bank approving hand-me-down loans.With so much “extra-excessive” supply hitting the market, housing prices were disproportionately affected downward as the number of houses a buyer had to choose from went from five to ten.

But be it large commercial banks flooding the market with condos or small community banks sending the market into hyper-supply, the crux of the problem was an incentive situation similar to the mortgage brokers.You were paid on volume, not risk.Bankers would get paid on deals completed, not paid back.Management would get bonuses based on sales, not loans paid back.And so the results were similar.Being obsessed with commission and completely disregarding risk, banks financed the construction of millions of homes that would never sell.Housing inventories skyrocketed, driving down prices and the banks did their job in helping contribute to the housing crisis.

Wow, I mean wow. I know The Economist has swayed left, but geez "Women and Children Killed By Israeli Assault?"

What amazes me (and further convinces me the "elite" in the western media and world are as competent as the "elites" such as Bernie Madoff, Dick Fuld and all the other Wall Street geniuses) is how the concept or just plain reality that Hamas is the one who ultimately pulled the trigger and are responsible for these deaths is lost on them.

I mean 3rd graders could get this kind of logic. It's like saying "How many women and children did the US kill in Japan?"

Oh, never mind the Japanese did it to themselves by kill 3,000 people at Pearl Harbor. Oh, no, that's completely irrelevant. No, it's the country defending itself and having the arrogance and audacity to stop FREAKING MISSILES from landing on its people. How dare they!

You go ahead and keep reading "The Economist." I have comic books to read that are more intellectually honest.

Saturday, January 17, 2009

As you all know, economics is my passion. So when I saw an economist position open here in the Twin Cities I was very excited. So I click on the link and here is the job posting (warning, you need 4 hours to read this);_____

You must be a United States citizen in order to apply for thisposition; verification of United States Citizenship will berequired.

IN ORDER TO BE QUALIFIED FOR THIS POSITION, IT IS REQUIRED AT THETIME OF APPLICATION TO SUBMIT YOUR COLLEGE TRANSCRIPTS VIA FAXIMAGING.

Job Summary:

WHY IS THE IRS A GREAT PLACE TO WORK?The IRS is a bureau of the Department of the Treasury and one of theworld's most efficient tax administrators. Yearly, the IRS collectsmore than $2 trillion in revenue and processes over 200 million taxreturns. The IRS Mission is to provide the United States taxpayerstop quality service by helping them understand and meet their taxresponsibilities and by applying the tax law with integrity andfairness to all.

WHAT IS THE LMSB DIVISION?The Large and Mid-Size Business Division (LMSB) conducts examinationsand related investigations of corporations and businesses withrevenue in excess of $10 million.

Position is located in Bloomington MN. The anticipated start dateis March, 2009.

HOW DO I APPLY?"It is really easy. Just click on the "How to Apply" tab above."

WHERE CAN I FIND OUT MORE ABOUT OTHER IRS CAREERS?If you want to find out more about IRS careers, visit us on the webat www.jobs.irs.gov.

Key Requirements:

Must be a citizen of the United States. Background investigation required.

Selective Service Registration is required for males born after 12/31/1959.

Up to 50% travel maybe required. No moving expenses.

Position will be filled at the GS-11, GS-12, and GS-13 level. If you wish

to be considered for all levels, you must apply for each grade level.

Promotion Potential is to the GS-13.

Major Duties:

As an IRS Economist you will:

GRADE 11

- Assume technical responsibility for various phases of theinitiation, formulation, planning, execution and control of specialstudies or continuous projects.- Assist in determining the objectives of a research project and themethodology needed to obtain the objectives.- Develop specifications for all segments of a research study.- Present data and analytical material to end users in an oral orwritten format.- Resolve very complex problems or errors requiring professionalattention.- Assume responsibility for the effective use of resources withinassigned subject matter projects.- Keep abreast of economic, statistical and tax literature for dataand research methodologies.- Review and analyze the reasonableness and accuracy of the materialproduced for a given study.- Prepare economic tables and graphical material using standardcomputer software.

GRADE 12

- Perform assignments based on an in-depth knowledge level andexpertise in economics that include complex issues covering anextensive range of industries and specializations.- Assume technical responsibility for various phases of theinitiation, formulation, planning, execution and control of specialstudies or continuous projects.- Conduct various kinds of microeconomic research and analysis thatrequires the study of economic structure, business practices andfunctions.- Review and analyze economic, statistical and tax data to determinethe existence of a potential economic issue; recommending formal,limited assistance or withdrawal.- Conduct research in source material that includes databases,professional journals and publications, government publications, andstudies by other economists.- Keep abreast of economic, statistical and tax literature for dataand research methodologies.- Review and analyze the reasonableness and accuracy of the materialproduced for a given study.- Serve as a qualified witness for the Government in cases reachinglitigation.- Prepare economic tables and graphical material using standardcomputer software.

GRADE 13

- Assume responsibility for the formulation of workload estimates forprogram segments specifying the methodology to be used, preparationof appropriate specifications and procedures, and the review ofcomputer systems, materials and instructions for the study.- Explain and defend research findings to the taxpayer, taxpayer'srepresentative, exam teams, Appeals, Counsel, and other IRS personnel.- Conduct various kinds of microeconomic research and analysis thatrequires the study of economic structure, business practices andfunctions, competitive conditions, trade barriers, government imposedbarriers, financial markets, etc.- Keep abreast of economic, statistical and tax literature for dataand research methodologies.- Review and analyze the reasonableness and accuracy of the materialproduced for a given study.- Serve as a qualified witness for the Government in cases reachinglitigation.- Prepare economic tables and graphical material using standardcomputer software.

Qualifications:

To be minimally qualified, you must meet the basic requirementsbelow.

A. Bachelor's or higher degree in economics that included at least21 semester hours in economics and 3 semester hours in statistics,accounting, or calculus from an accredited college or university.

OR

B. A combination of work experience and education at an accreditedcollege or university equivalent to 4 years as described above. Examples of qualifying experience include (this list is not allinclusive): individual economic research assignments requiringplanning, information assembly, analysis and evaluation, conclusionand report preparation, assignments involving the interpretation ofeconomic information, or teaching assignments in a college oruniversity that involve class instruction in economics and includeone of the following: personal research, direction of graduate thesesin economics, or service as a consultant or advisor on technicaleconomics problems.

NOTE: Experience in related fields that did not involve the use ofand understanding of economic principles and theories may not be usedas qualifying experience.

Notes:In applying the BASIC REQUIREMENTS above: 1. One full year of undergraduate academic study is defined as 30semester hours (45 quarter hours) and is equivalent to 1 year of full-time experience;2. Additional credit will not be given for duplicate course work(courses will be counted only once); and3. Part-time experience will be prorated.

For the purpose of this application, we will deal in Semester hours.If you have quarter hours, please use the following formula: # ofquarter hours completed divided by 1.5 = # of Semester hours. Forexample: If you have completed 12 quarter hours: 12/1.5=8 Semesterhours.

You may also be considered based upon a combination of education andexperience. You may combine the college credits you completed withany qualifying experience you have to total the equivalent of a four-year college education. When combining education and experience usethe following formula to calculate the total amount. Part time workexperience should be prorated. Formula using Semester hours: # SemHrs complete divided by 120 Sem Hrs + # of month's experience dividedby 48 months. Example: 90 Semester hours of college (90/120) and 3years experience (36/48) 90/120 + 36/48 = .75 + .75 =1.25. If youranswer is one or more, you have the required combination.

Reminder: Your resume must provide sufficient information to supportyour responses to the following questions. Do not overstate orunderstate your level of experience and capability. Your answers aresubject to evaluation and verification. Later steps in the selectionprocess will be used to verify your stated level of experience andcapability. If a determination is made that you have rated yourselfhigher than is supported by your resume you will be assigned a ratingcommensurate to your described experience. Deliberate attempts tofalsify information may be grounds for not selecting you.

How You Will Be Evaluated:

You will be evaluated on the following criteria: (1) by determiningif you meet the minimum qualifications required; (2) by the responsesyou provide to the supplemental questionnaire, as described below,indicating the extent to which you possess the specificqualifications associated with this position as defined in theQualification section; and (3) by additional evaluation ofqualifications through an interview.

(1) You will be assigned to one of two catergory groups (A or B)based on the results of the online assessment. If you fail theassessment, you will be considered not qualified for the position.

Job-Related Questions: As part of the on-line application process,you will need to respond to a series of questions designed to assessyour possession of the following Economist competencies:

Written Communications ~ Demonstrates the ability to clearly expressideas, thoughts, and concepts in writing, using correct andappropriate grammar, organization, and structure.

(2) If determined to meet the minimum qualifications for theposition, you will be sent via email a supplemental qualificationsquestionnaire. The questionnaire is used to determine if you possessthe knowledge skills and abilities of an Economist with the Large andMid-size Division of the Internal Revenue Service.

When responding to the questionnaire, you will be asked to describeyour experiences and identify your knowledge skills and abilities byresponding to the questions below:

A. Identify specific industries in which you have worked and brieflyexplain the type of work you did in each.

B. Describe experience you have had that specifically involved youin the determination or analysis of prices or valuations usingtechniques such as price theory or other applications ofmicroeconomics, rate-of-return anlaysis, discounted-cash-flowanalysis, or similar techniques.

C. Describe experience you have had in which you have had to useinterviews to elicit information for analysis, and in which you haveneeded to communicate your conclusions using substantial writtenreports or oral presentations.

D. Please describe any experience you have with specificallymultinational aspects of the operations of a firm with which you weredirectly involved. (The fact that the firm itself has suchoperations is not as important as your description of you ownspecific involvement with such activities.)

E. Describe any experience you have with quantitative research toolssuch as statistical or econometrics programs or corporate financialdatabase services such as Compustat or similar programs. Identifythe program and/or corporate financial database, but also give abrief description of the type of work for which you used it.

You will be sent this questionnaire after a review of yourapplication is performed to determine if you meet the minimumqualifications. You will have 5 days to respond to thequestionnaire. If your response is not received, you will beevaluated based on the information contained within your application.

(3) After a review of your application and your supplementalqualifications questionnaire, your qualifications may be evaluatedthrough an interview.

Qualifying education from colleges and universities in foreigncountries must be evaluated in terms of equivalency to that acquiredin U.S. colleges and universities. Applicants educated in whole orin part in foreign countries must submit sufficient evidence,including transcripts; to an accredited private organization for anequivalency evaluation of course work, including grade and creditconversion, and degree. You must provide a copy of the lettercontaining the results of the equivalency evaluation as supportingdocumentation. Failure to provide such documentation when requestedwill result in lost consideration.

In addition, you may need to submit supporting documentation. If youare qualifying for this position in whole or part based on education,you must submit college transcripts for all courses completed at timeof this application. If you are claiming veteran's preference oreligibility for special priority consideration, you must submit thedocuments described under "VETERAN'S PREFERENCE" and IMPORTANTINFORMATION FOR SURPLUS OR DISPLACED FEDERAL EMPLOYEES" below. Allsupporting documentation must be submitted along with yourapplication. Failure to provide supporting documentation within theprescribed period will result in disqualification or ineligibilityfor preference/priority consideration.

Note: Although a copy of your transcripts is acceptable forapplication processing, an official transcript will be required forselection.

How You Will Be Evaluated:

You will be assigned to one of two category groups (A and B) based onthe results of the online assessment. Each category group representsa quality level. Candidates will be considered in category grouporder. Qualified veterans claiming preference based on a service-connected disability of 30% or more (CPS) or 10% but less than 30%(CP) will be listed at the top of their assigned category group (A,or B) and will be provided absolute preference over non-preferenceeligibles. All other preference eligibles (XP and TP) will also beprovided absolute preference over non-preference eligibles withintheir assigned category group (A and B). To pass over any qualifiedpreference eligible(s) to select a non-preference eligible requiresapproval under formal objection procedures. Note: You maybe "tentatively" assigned to a category group pending qualificationsvalidation and assessment results. Final category assignment doesnot occur until referral on a certificate.

The IRS offers outstanding benefits, family friendly employmentpolicies, generous holiday, vacation, and sick leave. In addition,the IRS offers a tax deferred retirement savings and investment plan,with employer matching contributions. These benefits, however, donot apply to all appointment types. For example, they do not applyto individuals hired using Temporary Appointing Authority. Ifselected, information on your benefits will be provided with youroffer of employment.

Other Information:

Applicants must be in compliance with the tax laws. Your income taxreturns will be verified for the past three years to determine if youhave filed according to the tax laws.

NO MOVING OR RELOCATION EXPENSES WILL BE PAID.

If you are referred for consideration, you may be interviewed beforeselection. The interview focuses on the competencies listed aboveand is intended to supplement the information provided in your on-line application. IRS WILL NOT reimburse costs associated withtravel to and from the interview.

CONDITIONS OF EMPLOYMENT:Citizenship: Under Executive Order 11935, only United Statescitizens and nationals (residents of American Samoa and SwainsIsland) may compete for civil service jobs. Agencies are permittedto hire non-citizens only in very limited circumstances where thereare no qualified citizens available for the position. Applicants forthis announcement must be a U.S. citizen and a minimum of 16 years ofage.

Selections for employment depend upon several conditions such as thenumber of vacancies, assessment score, shift availability and workhistory. In addition, applicants are subject to an FBI name andfingerprint check, employment checks, and any other informationrelevant to selection for employment.

Not all eligible applicants are selected for employment. Ifselected, you will be notified and given a commitment letter.

Federal law requires all employers to verify the identity andemployment eligibility of all persons hired to work in the UnitedStates. We participate in E-Verify (Employment Verification). Wewill provide the Social Security Administration (SSA) and, ifnecessary, the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) with informationfrom your Form I-9 to confirm work authorization. If we cannotconfirm that you are authorized to work, we will provide you writteninstructions and an opportunity to contact SSA and/or DHS beforetaking adverse action against you, including terminating youremployment.

A determination will be made as to your suitability for federalemployment. All appointments are made subject to an investigation. Any arrests, discharges from employment, or other information notshown on the application could affect your selection and/or retentionin the service.

Probationary period: Every applicant selected from a competitivelist of eligibles for a Career or Career Conditional appointment mustserve a one (1) year probationary period. Reinstatementapplicants will be required to serve the one (1) year probationaryperiod unless the probationary period has already been completed. Applicants appointed under the Veterans Recruitment Authority willrequire a two (2) year trial period.

If selected, identification of promotion potential in this positiondoes not constitute a commitment or an obligation on the part ofmanagement to promote you at some future date. Promotion will dependupon administrative approval, the continuing need for an actualassignment, and performance of higher level duties.

NOTICE TO APPLICANTS: The Treasury Inspector General for TaxAdministration (TIGTA) has oversight and investigativeresponsibilities throughout IRS. TIGTA has authority to initiateinvestigations to identify IRS employees who have violated or areviolating laws, rules or regulations related to the performance oftheir duties. TIGTA does this in part through computer matchingprograms. TIGTA computerized matches include information fromPersonnel records, taxpayer account records, records of computerizedaccesses to IRS information, employee tax records and records ofemployee computer usage (i.e. the Internet and other research tools).

THE INTERNAL REVENUE SERVICE IS COMMITTED TO ENSURING THAT ALLEMPLOYEES PERFORM IN A MANNER WARRANTING THE HIGHEST DEGREE OF PUBLICCONFIDENCE AND DEMONSTRATES THE HIGHEST LEVEL OF ETHICS ANDINTEGRITY. APPLICANTS WILL BE REQUIRED TO GO THROUGH A PERSONALIDENTITY VERIFICATION (PIV) PROCESS THAT REQUIRES TWO FORMS OFIDENTIFICATION FROM THE FORM I-9; ONE MUST BE A VALID STATE ORFEDERAL GOVERNMENT-ISSUED PICTURE IDENTIFICATION. ELIGIBILITY FOR APIV CREDENTIAL IS REQUIRED. FAILURE TO COMPLY WITH THE PIV PROCESSAND IF UNABLE TO VERIFY THE APPLICANT'S IDENTITY, MAY RESULT IN THELOSS OF CONSIDERATION FOR EMPLOYMENT.

TO BE ELIGIBLE FOR PIV CREDENTIAL, APPLICANTS MUST HAVE ASUCCESSFULLY ADJUDICATED FBI CRIMINAL HISTORY RECORD CHECK(FINGERPRINT CHECK) AND A NACI OR EQUIVALENT BACKGROUND INVESTIGATIONINITIATED. EMPLOYEES MUST MAINTAIN PIV CREDENTIAL ELIGIBILITY DURINGTHEIR SERVICE WITH THE DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY.

EQUAL EMPLOYMENT OPPORTUNITY: THE INTERNAL REVENUE SERVICE IS ANEQUAL OPPORTUNITY EMPLOYER. SELECTION FOR THIS POSITION WILL BEBASED SOLELY ON MERIT WITHOUT REGARD TO RACE, COLOR, RELIGION, AGE,SEX, NATIONAL ORIGIN, POLITICAL AFFILIATION, DISABILITY, SEXUALORIENTATION, MARITAL OR FAMILY STATUS, MEMBERSHIP IN AN EMPLOYEEORGANIZATION OR OTHER NON MERIT FACTORS.

How To Apply:

Individuals applying for this announcement are required to completeand submit an on-line application through the Office of PersonnelManagement (OPM) USAJOBS website. This involves becoming a MyUSAJOBS member and creating a resume. The information you providethrough your My USAJOBS membership profile and resume is required ofall Federal job applicants. When you apply for this vacancyannouncement, the information you entered in your profile and resumeare transmitted to CareerConnector as part of your application andare used to create a CareerConnector registration.

To apply for this announcement you will need to answer approximately25 questions. The total number of questions will depend on the gradeyou select and your responses to each question.

To apply, you must select the APPLY ONLINE button that appears at thebottom of each announcement tab on USAJOBS. This will start theapplication process and take you to CareerConnector to complete yourapplication.

Your application is NOT complete until you have answered allmandatory questions and have SUBMITTED the online application.

You can respond to some or all questions without submitting. Youranswers can be saved and you can update or submit your application aslong as the announcement is open. However, you MUST respond to allmandatory questions and SUBMIT your application by the closing dateto be considered.

If applying on-line poses a hardship, please contact Karen Sklencarat 215-516-4801. YOU MUST CONTACT KAREN PRIOR TO THE CLOSING DATE sothat she can provide assistance to you for the on-line submission. Requests for extensions will not be granted.

Please note that we use e-mail to communicate with applicantsthroughout the hiring process. We understand that this may not bethe best way to contact all applicants. To ensure that we cancontact you quickly, you will be asked several questions about yourcommunication preferences in the application process.

You have until 11:59 PM Eastern Time (ET) on the closing date of thisannouncement to complete the following four-step application process.

STEP 1: To apply, you must first create a My USAJOBS membershipaccount and resume at www.usajobs.opm.gov. You can build up to 5resumes in your My USAJOBS account and will need to select one ofthese resumes as part of your application for this vacancyannouncement. Once you have created your My USAJOBS account andbuilt a resume, thoroughly review this vacancy announcement, selectthe "Apply Online" button, and follow the instructions provided.

Note: We recommend that you use the preview questions option providedat the bottom of the Qualifications and Evaluations tab of thisannouncement to review and print a copy of the qualificationquestions before you select the "Apply Online" button.

STEP 2: After selecting a resume to submit for your applicationpackage, you will be taken to CareerConnector to answer registrationquestions and specific questions for this vacancy announcement. Theanswers to the registration questions will determine what types ofjobs you are eligible to apply for based on your Federal experienceand other factors.

Note: If you have previously registered in CareerConnector, you willnot be required to re-register.

STEP 3: Next, you will answer a series of vacancy specific questionsto evaluate your qualifications for this announcement. Whencompleted and submitted, this information with your CareerConnectorregistration, My USAJOBS account profile, and your resume become yourapplication. Once you submit your completed application by answeringall mandatory questions and selecting "Finished", you will see asummary of your application which we recommend that you print forfuture reference. If you do NOT see this summary, you have NOTsuccessfully submitted your application. A complete application mustbe received by 11:59 PM ET on the closing date of this announcementin order to receive consideration.

Note: At the bottom of your application summary, you shouldselect "Finished" again. This will return you to USAJOBS where youwill see confirmation that your resume was sent to this vacancyannouncement. You will then be able to track the status of yourapplication through your My USAJOBS account.

3) Click on the 'More Information' link to be transferred the page toprint the cover sheet(s).

4) Click on the 'View/Generate Fax Cover sheet(s)' and on 'Continue'.

5) For each cover sheet to be printed, click the check boxunder 'Select Cover Sheet' and click 'Print Cover Sheet'.

6) Fax each set (cover sheet and document named in the cover sheet)to the fax number listed on the cover sheet.

7) You must dial the fax number each time a different set is faxed.

8) If you fax from an IRS-owned fax machine, you must obtain anoutside line before dialing the fax number on the cover sheet.

IMPORTANT INFORMATION: If your contact information changes after theclosing date of this vacancy announcement, send your updatedinformation to LMSBEXTAPPS@irs.gov to ensure you can be contactedthroughout the selection process. Please include the fullannouncement number and position title on all correspondence.

Required Documents:

In addition, you may need to submit supporting documentation. If youare qualifying for this position in whole or part based on education,you MUST FAX-IMAGE copies of all college transcripts for all coursescompleted. If you are claiming veteran's preference or eligibilityfor special priority consideration, you must submit the documentsdescribed under "VETERAN'S PREFERENCE' and 'IMPORTANT INFORMATION FORSURPLUS OR DISPLACED FEDERAL EMPLOYEES' below. All supportingdocumentation must be submitted ASAP. Failure to fax imagesupporting documentation asap will result in disqualificationor ineligibility for reference/priority consideration.

PLEASE NOTE: Fax-Image copies of your transcripts are acceptable forapplication processing. However, official college transcripts arerequired at the time of the interview.

In addition to the online application (resume and responses tovacancy questions), the following forms may be required:

* DD-214 if claiming Veterans' Preference.* Standard Form 15, Application for 10-Point Veterans' Preferenceand supporting documents (if applicable).* Official College Transcripts (copies will be accepted initially,however, prior to selection eligible applicants must submit officialtranscripts to the hiring personnel office).* Equivalency Evaluation from an accredited private organization offoreign education if applicable.* SF-50 - If you are or have been a Federal employee, please submit:** copy of your last Notification of Personnel Action, Form SF-50; and** copy of your most recent or last performance appraisal.

Note: If you need to request a copy of your SF-50, please write tothe FEDERAL RECORDS CENTER, National Archives and RecordsAdministration, 111 Winnebago Street, St. Louis, Missouri, 63118. You must provide your name, social security number and date of birthwith your request.

FAILURE TO PROVIDE A COMPLETE APPLICATION PACKAGE WILL RESULT IN NOTRECEIVING CONSIDERATION FOR THIS POSITION. Note: Your applicationpackage will not be returned. Do NOT submit original documents thatyou may need in the future.

VETERANS' PREFERENCE: If you have served on active duty in theUnited States military and were separated under honorable conditions,you may be eligible for veteran's preference. To claim veterans'preference, you must submit:* Form DD-214 covering the period of military service for whichpreference is claimed; and* If applicable, a Standard Form 15, Application for 10-PointVeterans' Preference with supporting documents as outlined on theform. This form can be found at www.usajobs.opm.gov/forms.asp.

Note: For more information on veteran's preference, please go to theU.S. Office of Personnel Management website for Veterans atwww.opm.gov/veterans.

CTAP/ICTAP ELIGIBLES: Individuals who have special priorityselection rights under the Agency Career Transition AssistanceProgram (CTAP) or the Interagency Career Transition AssistanceProgram (ICTAP) must apply as indicated above. CTAP/ICTAP eligiblesmust be well qualified for the position to receive consideration forspecial priority selection. CTAP/ICTAP eligibles who receive a scoreof 80 or above will be considered well qualified. If you are seekingCTAP/ICTAP eligibility consideration, you must submit proof that you meet the requirement of 5 CFR 330.605 (a) for CTAP and 5 CFR 330.704for ICTAP. This includes a copy of the agency notice, a copy of yourmost recent Performance Rating and copy of your most recent SF-50noting current position, grade level, and duty location. Pleaseannotate your application to reflect that you are applying as a CTAPor ICTAP eligible.

REASONABLE Accommodation STATEMENT: The Internal Revenue Serviceprovides reasonable accommodations to applicants with disabilities.If you need a reasonable accommodation for any part of theapplication and hiring process, please contact Karen Sklencar at 215-516-4801.

Decisions on granting reasonable accommodation will be made on a case-by-case basis.

If you have been certified by the States Rehabilitation Center or theState's Commission for the Blind, may wish to contact your counselorto apply for employment through the IRS Disability Employment Programin addition to applying for this vacancy announcement.

Note: Your Category Rating may be different for each grade becausethe requirements are different for each level.

We will communicate with you using e-mail throughout the hiringprocess. You will receive an electronic Notice of Rating that willprovide you with information regarding your eligibility for theoccupations covered under this announcement. If you currently have aSpam Blocker on your computer, you will have to remove it in order toreceive notification from our office.

The United States Government does not discriminate in employment on the basis of race, color, religion, sex, national origin, political affiliation, sexual orientation, marital status, disability, age, membership in an employee organization, or other non-merit factor.

Federal agencies must provide reasonable accommodation to applicants with disabilities where appropriate. Applicants requiring reasonable accommodation for any part of the application and hiring process should contact the hiring agency directly. Determinations on requests for reasonable accommodation will be made on a case-by-case basis.