[RELEASE] MyBrute Tournament Title Probabilities

DOWNLOAD: http://sioc.webs.com/MyBrute-ToolPack.zip(after having clicked on that link, click on "Request download ticket" then on "Download")

Summary:

This tool allows to determine the probabilities a given brute gets a given title during a tournament on any COM/FR/ES server,

It is based on a Monte-Carlo algorithm with Gaussian distibutions for the parameters simulating noise.

It makes use of the full distribution of brutes' levels on a given server (all top-1000 rankings on the website).

This is a model and as such it tries to simplify reality by capturing the main characteristics with only a few parameters and ignoring less important ones.It is therefore an approximation and the resulting probabilities heavily rely on empirical parameters and should not be taken as accurate. They only provide an order of magnitude.

Screenshot:The file itself contains all explanations on how to use it:

Spoiler:

Examples:

For the time being, kn2-oicbuu6j is still padawan and level 330. This is one of the best hyper-agis of the whole game. Here are the probabilities given by the tool if this brute enters a tournament now:

Spoiler:

Hour

Title

Probability of getting this title

Standard deviation

#brutes remaining

11h

Desert Batterer

99.77%

4.79%

2'048

12h

Sticking Plaster Ripper

99.41%

7.66%

1'024

13h

Richter Thumper

98.96%

10.14%

512

14h

Iron Fist

97.89%

14.37%

256

15h

Vengeful Flame

95.76%

20.15%

128

16h

Berserk Soul

91.83%

27.39%

64

17h

Hemogoblin

84.57%

36.12%

32

18h

Sword Swallower

72.01%

44.89%

16

19h

Satan's Biceps

53.99%

49.84%

8

20h

Dentist of Chaos

31.96%

46.63%

4

21h

Brutal Legend

13.27%

33.93%

2

A level 110 hyper-agi brute like Nasic's saptdutieeu (still padawan for the time being) would have the following probabilities (BL probability is < 1/50'000 therefore shown as 0):

Spoiler:

Hour

Title

Probability of getting this title

Standard deviation

#brutes remaining

11h

Desert Batterer

95.94%

19.74%

2'048

12h

Sticking Plaster Ripper

91.77%

27.48%

1'024

13h

Richter Thumper

83.94%

36.71%

512

14h

Iron Fist

70.66%

45.53%

256

15h

Vengeful Flame

50.38%

50.00%

128

16h

Berserk Soul

27.04%

44.42%

64

17h

Hemogoblin

8.89%

28.46%

32

18h

Sword Swallower

1.40%

11.73%

16

19h

Satan's Biceps

0.07%

2.72%

8

20h

Dentist of Chaos

0.00%

0.45%

4

21h

Brutal Legend

0.00%

0.00%

2

A level 83 strength brute like 6.aii's sioc-emquux would have the following probabilities (BL probability is < 1/50'000 therefore shown as 0):

Spoiler:

Hour

Title

Probability of getting this title

Standard deviation

#brutes remaining

11h

Desert Batterer

93.97%

23.80%

2'048

12h

Sticking Plaster Ripper

87.17%

33.44%

1'024

13h

Richter Thumper

75.50%

43.01%

512

14h

Iron Fist

57.18%

49.48%

256

15h

Vengeful Flame

33.40%

47.16%

128

16h

Berserk Soul

12.74%

33.34%

64

17h

Hemogoblin

2.48%

15.56%

32

18h

Sword Swallower

0.16%

4.05%

16

19h

Satan's Biceps

0.01%

0.77%

8

20h

Dentist of Chaos

0.00%

0.00%

4

21h

Brutal Legend

0.00%

0.00%

2

Although some probabilities are shown as equal to zero this is an artifact only due to the fact the probability is so small that there were not enough Monte-Carlo runs in order to capture a single event.

Requirements:

Requires M$ Excel (it won't work with OpenOffice)!

Most likely does not work on Excel for MAC.

When opening the file you have to accept the execution of macros (or if you are not prompted go to "Tools" -> "Options" -> "Security" -> "Macro security" -> "Medium" and open again the file).

You need write access to the directory from where the application is running (when updating the distribution it is saving the html code of each page in a temporary file).

Works for all three servers (COM, FR, ES).

Was tested on Excel 2003 only. Should work on Excel 2007 or 2010 though.

Version history:

1.20: Update for the Accept-Language FIX under VBA.

1.10: Ability to find probabilities that are specific to tomorrow's tournament as a function of brutes that effectively registered or may register. Download speed improved.

1.01: Ability to specify the fraction of brutes entering a tournament as a function of the brute level.

1.00: First public release with full Monte-Carlo dynamics and full distribution of the brutes' levels on each server.

0.20: Partial Monte-Carlo (mention of the resulting probabilities in some posts in the Forum).

0.10: Using averages with no fluctuations at all (mention of the resulting probabilities in some posts in the Forum).

_________________

Last edited by Sioc on Sun 22 Sep 2013, 15:08; edited 24 times in total

It can now determine probabilities that are very specific to tomorrow's tournament: for each brute that may beat your brute (up to 3 standard deviations) it will check if the brute has already registered, if it may still register, and if it will not enter tomorrow's tournament because it was in today's.

For example this should now allow to spot potentially easier tournaments before registering ;-)

Not 100% correct ;-)Parameters are adjusted with real brute levels distribution + with information about brutes that effectively registered or may not register.And the standard deviation gives a rough idea of what may be the "luck factor" arising from the seeds ;-)Of course fights between brutes have not much in common with the rules of the real game which was imo anyway not a practicable route from the point of view of CPU-time requirement. But the goal was nevertheless to stick as much as possible to what you could expect in practice without having to load a CPU for days... :-)