Federal Election Preview - South Australia

The 2007 and 2010 election results in South Australia were a case of turning back the clock for the Labor Party. In 2007 Labor won a majority of seats in South Australia for the first time since 1990, and recorded a majority of the 2-party preferred vote for the first time since 1987. Labor's vote improved further in 2010, the party recording its best 2-party preferred result in the state since 1969.

Labor's 2010 result in South Australia may have a similar cause to Labor's record Queensland result in 2007, a surge in response to the novelty of electing a hometown Prime Minister.

The events of 26 June mean the hometown link has now been broken, but Julia Gillard's plunging polls had become a drag for the Labor Party in all states. Labor is now banking on the Rudd government's restoration period to help save its South Australian seats.

The table below summarises the 2010 House of Representatives result in South Australia.

2010 Election Result

Party

Candi­dates

Votes

Pct

Swing

SeatsWon

SeatsChange

Australian Labor Party

11

399 279

40.74

-2.44

6

..

Liberal Party

11

394 003

40.21

-1.55

5

..

The Greens

11

117 364

11.98

+5.03

..

..

Family First

11

48 638

4.96

+0.91

..

..

Australian Democrats

8

7 020

0.72

-0.79

..

..

Independents

3

5 086

0.52

-0.18

..

..

The Climate Sceptics

5

3 525

0.36

+0.36

..

..

Liberal Democrats

4

2 833

0.29

+0.12

..

..

One Nation

2

1 105

0.11

-0.06

..

..

Socialist Alliance

1

786

0.08

+0.08

..

..

Secular Party

1

310

0.03

+0.03

..

..

Others

..

..

..

-1.52

..

..

Formal

68

979 949

94.54

-1.68

11

..

Informal

56 565

5.46

+1.68

Total Vote / Turnout

1 036 514

93.83

-1.59

Two-Party Preferred

Labor

521 115

53.18

+0.78

Coalition

458 834

46.82

-0.78

The last two elections in South Australia have largely been fought in Liberal territory. The Liberal Party appears to have engaged in 'sandbagging', concentrating its campaign on keeping the rising Labor electoral flood out of its marginal seats of Boothby and Sturt. As a result, the majorities in traditionally marginal seats have blown out for Labor.

The table below sets out the battleground South Australian seats for the 2013 election, adjusted for the 2012 redistribution. The Liberal concentration on Boothby and Sturt at the last two elections means that the previously marginal Liberal seats of Wakefield, Makin and Kingston now have what appear to be highly inflated Labor margins.

The graph below plots the Labor 2-party preferred vote in South Australia against the same figure for the rest of the country. The graph shows that Labor support in South Australia was generally above the rest of the country until around 1990, after which Labor's South Australia support collapsed. It is only in 2007 and 2010 that Labor's vote in South Australia returned to more traditional levels.

The cause of Labor's decline in the early 1990s was the collapse of the State Bank of South Australia in 1991. The state Labor government of John Bannon created the bank and was held responsible by the electorate for its collapse. At the state election in December 1993, a swing of 9% swept the Liberal Party into government, winning 37 of the 47 seats in the House of Assembly. The Federal election held earlier in the year had also been worse for Labor in South Australia than in other states, losing the seats of Adelaide, Grey and Hindmarsh.

The 1990s were to be a golden Liberal decade in South Australia. The election of the Howard government in 1996 saw the Liberal Party win 10 of the state's 12 seats, left Labor holding just its northern Adelaide redoubts of Bonython and Port Adelaide. Labor re-gained the southern Adelaide seat of Kingston in 1998, but was unable to win the Howard government's other key marginal seats, Adelaide, Hindmarsh and especially Makin, where Labor went backwards in a seat with a margin of under 1%. The political situation remained unchanged at the 2001 election, Labor holding three seats to the Liberal Party's nine.

South Australia was reduced to 11 seats by a redistribution ahead of the 2004 election. The safe Labor seat of Bonython was abolished and many of its booths amalgamated with rural areas to the north of Adelaide in the re-drawn and notionally Labor held electorate of Wakefield. The 2004 election was to be dominated by the issue of interest rates, and reflecting this campaign theme, Labor lost both its outer suburban seats, the re-drawn Wakefield as well as Kingston. Compensating for these losses, Labor gained inner-city Adelaide and Hindmarsh, but was still left with only three seats to the Liberal Party's eight.

The graph below shows the party that won each seat in South Australia at federal elections since 1984. Seats are listed in rough order from safest Labor to safest Liberal. The Labor seat of Hawker was abolished in 1993 and Bonython in 2004, the later seat's abolition transforming Wakefield from a safe Liberal rural seat to a more marginal urban/rural electorate. The Liberal advances in the 1990s are clearly shown in the graph.

Labor's Federal results were not to recover until after the state party re-established its governing credentials. The Liberal Party may have won the 1993 state election in a landslide, but party in-fighting saw Dean Brown replaced as Premier in his first term by John Olsen, who then came perilously close to defeat at the 1997 state election. Olsen was himself replaced as Premier in 2001, and the folksy charms of new Liberal Premier Rob Kerin came very close to denying Labor's return to office at the 2002 election. Labor fell one seat short of a majority and only achieved office by agreeing to appoint maveric Liberal turned Independent MP Peter Lewis as Speaker. The subsequent luring of other cross benchers across the aisle stabilised the Rann government and Labor was handsomely returned at the 2006 state election.

As the 2007 Federal election approached, Liberal Party polling leaked to newspapers indicated Labor could gain as many as six seats in South Australia. The Liberal Party appeared to shift campaign resources into defending its safer seats, Labor achieving substantial swings to win the marginal seats of Kingston, Makin and Wakefield, but failing to dislodge the Liberal Party in Boothby and Sturt.

Labor again failed to win Boothby and Sturt in 2010, but was rewarded with handsome swings in other seats. The swing to Labor in Kingston at the 2010 election was 9.5%, the largest in the country, while Wakefield's swing was the fifth largest at 5.4%, and Makin the ninth largest at 5.2%. Adelaide's three traditional outer suburban marginal seats are all now safe for Labor. At least on paper.

Labor's most marginal seats going into the 2013 election are inner-city Hindmarsh (ALP 6.1%) and Adelaide (ALP 7.5%). Both were gained by Labor at the 2004 election. Hindmarsh is held by backbencher Steve Georganas, and he will be opposed in 2013 by Liberal candidate Matt Williams. Adelaide is represented by Kate Ellis, Minister for Early Childhood, Childcare, Youth and Minister for Employment Participation, and her Liberal opponent is Carmen Garcia.

The outer southern suburban seat of Kingston (ALP 14.6%) is a classic mortgage belt seat, and a classic swinger. Kingston has changed party eight times in the last 44 years, in 1966, 1969, 1975, 1983, 1996, 1998, 2004 and 2007, with sitting members defeated at four of the five elections in the Howard era. Sitting Labor MP Amanda Rishworth will defend this seat against Liberal candidate Damien Mills.

Based in the northern suburbs of Adelaide around Salisbury and Elizabeth, Wakefield (ALP 10.5%) also includes the regional centre of Gawler, and extends into rural areas as far north as the Clare Valley. Sitting MP Nick Champion gained this seat for Labor at the 2007 election and will be opposed in 2013 by Liberal candidate Tom Zorich. As with Kingston, Labor's margin in this seat looks inflated.

Labor's third gain in 2007 was Makin (ALP 12.0%), won by former Salisbury Mayor Tony Zappia at his second attempt. The substantial swing he achieved for victory was helped by the retirement of sitting Liberal MP Trish Draper, who had repelled Labor at elections throughout the Howard era. He will be opposed in 2013 by veteran Liberal candidate Sue Lawrie. Again, Labor's margin in this seat looks inflated.

Despite their narrow margins, sitting Liberal MPs Christopher Pyne in Sturt (LIB 3.6%) and Dr Andrew Southcott in Boothby (LIB 0.6%) should be returned. That is unless Kevin Rudd can become a modern-day Canute and reverse an ebbing electoral tide for Labor.

Past Elections Results

Primary Vote %

2PP %

Seats Won

Election

ALP

LIB

NAT

DEM

GRN

ONP

OTH

ALP

ALP

LIB

OTH

Total

1975

42.6

49.3

0.5

..

..

..

7.5

44.9

6

6

..

12

1977

42.6

45.0

0.8

11.3

..

..

0.3

48.7

6

5

..

11

1980

44.5

44.5

1.4

8.8

..

..

0.9

49.6

6

5

..

11

1983

48.4

42.1

1.1

6.9

..

..

1.5

52.3

7

4

..

11

1984

46.9

43.0

1.5

7.9

..

..

0.8

51.7

8

5

..

13

1987

44.6

42.5

3.8

7.8

..

..

1.4

50.2

8

5

..

13

1990

38.0

42.6

..

15.2

0.2

..

4.0

49.5

7

6

..

13

1993

38.8

45.7

0.3

7.8

0.2

..

7.2

47.3

4

8

..

12

1996

34.8

50.0

..

10.2

2.9

..

2.0

42.7

2

10

..

12

1998

34.5

42.1

0.5

10.1

0.5

9.8

2.5

46.9

3

9

..

12

2001

33.7

45.9

..

10.5

3.6

4.8

1.4

45.9

3

9

..

12

2004

36.8

47.4

1.0

1.9

5.4

1.1

6.4

45.6

3

8

..

11

2007

43.2

41.8

1.3

1.5

7.0

0.2

5.0

52.4

6

5

..

11

2010

40.7

40.2

..

0.7

12.0

0.1

6.2

53.2

6

5

..

11

Note: Family First polled 4.3% of the primary vote at both the 2004 election, 4.1% in 2007 and 5.0% in 2010..