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I don't see a ton of "Cinderellas" making it this year. So many good teams were underseeded (Texas, Louisville, etc.) that some of these teams can't really make big time runs. If it's gonna happen, I see it going on in the 4/5 areas. The 13's seem strong, and some of the 4's seem really weak...

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I don't love LB St. so much as I don't love Tennessee. They have a big time player in Chris Lofton, but the rest of the team is inconsistent and cannot score in the clutch. Without consistent weapons, Tennessee will need to lock down on D and the boards to win. Unfortunately, they're only average there...

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Why do people love Long Beach State? Just wondering, I don't know much about them...

I was unaware others loved LB St. I've seen them play a lot. They run and shoot the 3. Any team that shoots the 3 well is a potential upset candidate in the first round. The pretty much dominated there conference and although lost some games early in the season to what some would consider power conference teams, they got better as the season went a long an dominated their conference tournament. Also I'm down on Tennesee. I like the matchup they got.

Also the commitee recognized their talent a bit. A 12 seed for them is quite respectable being the conference champ of such a small conference.

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Easiest path for a number 1 seed: I think most agree this to be a consensus, especially since they were given the number 1 overall seeding for the tournament, but the nod is to Florida. Arizona underperforms, and Purdue doesn't really scare you. 3 of the 4 teams that they could face in the sweet 16 are mid-majors. Granted, solid mid-majors, but talent wise, not close. The bottom half is weak also, with Wisconsin very spotty. Is Oregon peaking or streaking? If Florida doesn't get to the Final Four, they have no one to blame but themselves, IMO.

Easiest path for a number 2 seed: A bit tougher of a call, but the nod is Georgetown. Belmont shouldn't be a problem, and neither should the inconsistent BC/Texas Tech squads. I'm not a huge fan of Washington State, and the other potential opponents don't really seem daunting. North Carolina and Texas are both young squads that go through bouts of inconsistency, with the other teams on the top half a bit spotty.

My current bets at sleepers within each region that have the best shot at getting to the final four (not saying they'll get there, but the best shot:

East Rutherford - Tough call between the 12 and 14 seeds, but the nod goes to Oral Roberts. Veteran squad coming back that has played consistently all year. Matchup against Washington State is one they can win, and neither Vanderbilt or GW stand out as daunting. Georgetown is, though ... but stranger things have happened before, and the top 2 teams in the top half (UNC and Texas) are young.

San Antonio - Long Beach State. As a rule of thumb, I always look at strong guard play and a veteran squad. Long Beach State has all those assets. Aaron Nixon had a stellar year, and he has a fairly strong supporting cast. Granted, there's no size worth mentioning, so if they face a team that can defend the perimeter and attack them inside, they'll be in trouble. But I think that they match up well with Tennessee, as they have the players that potentially could neutralize Chris Lofton enough. I love my Wahoo's, but we overachieved this year. It'll be a intriguing battle if UVA plays Long Beach State, with arguably the best backcourt in the country in Singletary/Reynolds, but it's a game Long Beach State could win. It'll be a gargantuan task to beat Ohio State, and hence sleeper, but stranger things have happened, and they have the strong guard play that could cause trouble.

St. Louis - Winthrop. Well-coached, veteran squad. I think the key is how well Craig Bradshaw plays inside. Notre Dame is beatable, especially if they are off with their touch, and I'm not sure if Oregon is peaking or if they are streaking. Wisconsin is a weak 2 seed (and I wonder if Texas A&M - CC could challenge, if not, beat them). Georgia Tech and UNLV are both intriguing squads, but the Jackets are young and UNLV is a perimeter oriented team that really lacks any standout talent.

San Jose - Gonzaga. Maybe all they really needed was to be an underdog again, which they definitely are. Indiana is a very workmanlike-Sampson type club ... but if DJ White is off ... they are very suspect. If they win, they likely face UCLA, a daunting task, but I believe strong guard play can really hurt the Bruins, and if Derek Raivio is on, he could cause a lot of problems for them. Neither Duke nor Pittsburgh are the types of teams that make you go "Hey, we've got to at our absolute best whenever we play them to have a chance to win", as both have bouts of inconsistency, Duke moreso than Pittsburgh. I like that Kansas squad ... but something just makes me wonder if they have enough to push through.

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West: Fresno State
South: Missouri State
East: NC State (I think NC State/Drexel is the game of the entire tourny for the NIT - what a nice matchup in round 1 ... as good as many first round NCAA matchups)
North: Florida State (best player in NIT, IMO, in Al Thornton)

NC State over Florida State (return of Engin Atsur has been huge ... I wonder if he had been healthy all year, if NC State might've won a couple more games and squeezed into the tourny ... nice young team worth watching next year, provided Atsur is adequately replaced)

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If Illinois can make it out of the first against Virginia Tech (which is a tall task for the Illini), they potentially face the Salukis, and that matchup doesn't bode well. I'm not even sold that they matchup too well against Holy Cross, but I don't know enough about Holy Cross.

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I don't think Illinois matches up well with So. Illinois, and I'm not sure Illinois matches up well with Holy Cross either. I think VA Tech can shut down Illinois enough ... and their defense will let them challenge So. Illinois.