"I am one of those who do not believe the national debt is a national blessing...it is calculated to raise around the administration a moneyed aristocracy dangerous to the liberties of the country."
—Andrew Jackson, letter, April 26, 1824

Friday, March 30, 2012

I have nothing to say right now. Lot's of important things going on, but out of disgust with the markets reaction (rise) because the promise of QE here and the issuance of QE overseas in the face of deteriorating economic data across the globe is just sickening.

In the STB NCAA tourney challenge - It all boils down to the USU v. KS game. Skysurfer has a shot to win it all if KS wins tomorrow (if so he may get the boot from the blog for beating LS2's heart). Danjay can win it if OSU makes it in (I have no clue who this is).

I tell ya, they really know how to time these things (and apparently leak them as well based on yesterday's late price action out of nowhere). What time is it? I said, what time is it? I can't heeeeeaaaaaar you! That's right boys and girls, sheeple from all around the globe, it's bailout time again! Sweet Jesus! Lord Gawd almighteh! Thank ya Lord. The banksters prayers have been answered.

Well, I'm not sure which entity the banksters pray to. Some say they are all part of the dark side and have no soul, and I can certainly go for that. "God's work" will be continued uninterrupted in the EU for it is bailout time again. I guess when Lord Rothschild (or Rockefeller or Carnegie or whichever supreme banker) says print, they just do it. It really is sickening. We were warned by our forefathers about this.

Seriously, what a gig they got. They print with ink and paper and that piece of paper magically has tremendous value. I'm still not sure how that works, but hey, it is what it is. Then we the stupid ass sheeple want to borrow some of that printed paper so we put up all sorts of collateral to get some. Now we're paying interest and have secured our loan with collateral. We fail. They come and take everything. That makes NO sense at all, but that's whats happening. You do realize if we had a gold backed currency it would resolve this issue completely, but then the banks would not be able to fractally expand their paper fiat and the system would be fair to both sides. We can't have that now can we. Thanks President Nixon!

What you need to know is that things are not as rosy as the market is telling you. How markets can ignore the data prints this month can only be explained by one thing and one thing only, stealth QE. "Overall, a wash, meaning March is about to close with about with 17 misses out of 19 key economic indicators." Q4 GDP Comes As Expected, Claims Miss Big Two Weeks In A Row | ZeroHedge

Wednesday, March 28, 2012

How or when this global financial destruction all ends is anyone's guess. The spending supporting the dead global Ponzi is out of control and without CTRL+P and all the shenanigans of 2008 and 09 the system would have imploded long ago and we'd probably be on the road to recovery now. That would not have worked or served the globalists too well as the wrong president was in place and the police state was not fully set up to function.

The system is going to implode and you need to know and be sure of that. It is just a question of how long they can keep it afloat. Below is just one of the scenarios that I like to think will play out in the next year or so. If you have any interest in your retirement plan being confiscated by the government I suggest you read on.

"The National Debt has now increased more during President Obama's three years and two months in office than it did during 8 years of the George W. Bush presidency." National Debt has increased more under Obama than under Bush - Political Hotsheet - CBS News. See the chart in the post. Pictures can assist in allowing your mind's eye to wrap around an issue better than words sometimes. This debt is only going to expand and rapidly as the recent budget submissions indicate, they plan on cutting nothing.

If you have never seen the U.S. National Debt Clock : Real Time check it out. My favorite figure in the chart is not the debt in the top left corner, but the $118 Trillion in UNFUNDED US Debt at the bottom of the page. Did you catch that? Wrap your head around the $118 trillion in unfunded liabilities.

I read this and said to myself, there is no need to write anything else. If you are tired of my broken record posts, sorry. That's life. This is the new normal. Just so you know I am not the only one preaching this mantra, read this -

"Bad news is once again good news. Asia sells off on Monday's weaker profit news; the Bank of Spain says that the Spanish economy is expected to see a negative print in Q1 which if confirmed will ensure a fresh recession while the budget statistics released by the Spanish government yesterday showed further deterioration in its fiscal situation, per DB. The deficit for the first two months of the year was €20.7bn and this does not include state and regional governments’ budgets; lastly American housing slump accelerates as MBA mortgage applications drop for the 7th consecutive week with applications down 2.7%, on the back of a 4.6% decline in refi applications, the lowest since December 7. And futures are...green. Which is to be expected, since good news is good news, and bad news is, thanks to the Fed, and in this case uber-dove Rosengren, who said more stimulus is on the table, better news. It is now obvious that the Fed will not rest until the market is at fresh all time distorted, manipulated, nominal highs." Overnight Sentiment: Teflon Centrally-Planned Markets Send Futures Green | ZeroHedge

What else can you say? I apologize, but that is all there is to it. The QE carrot, CTRL+P, kicking the can, eternal easing; call it what you may but this is reality in this centrally planned market. Of course a sane few know what's real and what is not. Those same few know how badly this experiment will end. Sadly the sheeple have no clue of the the great fleecing that is to come when the banks take everything.

Tuesday, March 27, 2012

Ah, the promise of QE can do miraculous things. Looking back you gotta wonder who got the advance copies of the Bernank's speech Friday around 10:00 when the markets abruptly turned off 1380 and since have climbed 39 points to a high of 1419 in two trading days. Their MO has been to allow a 20 to 30 point move south and then push it right back up to higher highs. A true correction has not happened at all on this run since the November lows.

We often discuss in the posts and in the commentary that the markets are rigged. That investing today is like no other time in history with the Fed in total control of both the bond and equity markets while the derivatives market and the banks hold the ultimate trump card. Even the Bond King is finally throwing in the towel. Bill Gross: "The Game As We All Have Known It Appears To Be Over" | ZeroHedge "As for the endgame: "Is a systemic implosion still possible in 2012 as opposed to 2008? It is, but we will likely face much more monetary and credit inflation before the balloon pops. Until then, you should budget for “safe carry” to help pay your bills. The bunker portfolio lies further ahead.""

STB's call for a long time now has been a serious correction (we got one in June), then for more QE and a ramp to the elections with the possibility of a market implosion from an exogenous event at any moment. I still think there is one more 15 to 20% move south before November. After the election and into 2013 all bets are off.

Monday, March 26, 2012

The only difference? We're ALL being oppressed now. There is no "race" anymore with where this government is going. There also needs to be no "race" in the challenge to the system. We must listen, learn and unite now. Listen VERY CAREFULLY.

The scenarios we've been discussing are numerous, but they all boil down to one thing, QE. That is all that matters till the debt burden implodes the system. "Recovery" huh? One more round of easing and all will be well is the party line. Well, if the recovery is kicking so much ass then why do we need more stimulus? Now should be the time to be removing cash from the system not upping the dose and turning the flow on the IV to the max.

All it took after the Jackson Hole meeting in 2010 was the promise to ease and the markets delivered back to back record months. So here goes the Bernank with strong hints at further easing as Twist comes to an end. Is the Bernank simply trying to buy some time and hopes that the markets can hold up or advance without the liquidity backstop for a short period? That has been a mistake in the past.

Friday, March 23, 2012

This weekend we have to share some special love for one of our own. The master of the 13/34 (which we hope are not his wife to be's measurements) gets married Sunday. Yup, another one bites the dust. Young love. Must be nice. I'm sure we can all share our own stories and experiences, but let's be positive here and stick with wishing him the best.

After last Friday we entered a quiet period for news. All the global economic issues were put to bed. Carry on good sheeple. All the terrific issues and build up to solve another crisis (with the corresponding market melt up) were taken care of via CTRL+P and the stroke of a few newly created unsecured digital dollars. Well just a week later here we are again.

Zero Hedge (as usual) has been posting the daily death knoll but no one of any influence can seem to hear the truth. "Yesterday we discussed extensively how the narrative of US decoupling, which has so far trumped everything else, is finally fading, is coming to an abrupt end, and with no other "plotline" to take its place, as China, Europe and corporate profits are all in the dumps, the only option is for more easy money to come soon. However, with crude sticky this will be a problem in an election year. Today, this sentiment has become even more acute as new Greek 2023 bonds have for the first time trade over 20%, with weakness spreading to all the other PIIGS, and talk of yet another LTRO already picking up pace." Selloff Resumes As "Risk Off" Sentiment Refuses To Leave | ZeroHedge

Thursday, March 22, 2012

With the DOW hovering just above 13,000 support and the SPX trading sub 1400, is it time for a breather or something worse? I think so, but that decision is up to the central planners and those in the cabal controlling the system. We can theorize all day long, but bottom line is will the Fed pull market sustaining liquidity or not?

The SPX is working on a third head and shoulders (forming a massive head here) with the first having a neckline at 1340. So a fall to there, pop to 1370 for the right shoulder and then collapse to 1270 looks pretty good here if things start going south. That fits with my targets I have been giving for some time.

I still contend the market is a major illusion generating the all is well signal while the economy erodes at an increasing pace from under it. That's not a good combination. More on the markets in the morning (of which STB is blistering hot in market calls as usual), there are more important things to cover tonight. STB will continue to hammer home the doom and gloom till you get it in your head that all is not well.

Two really important things you need to see today - these videos highlight two SEVERE issues we have today - the economy and our constitutional rights.

Well, so they thought they had put all the bad news to bed and the economies were recovering and all was well. Hey, it all sounded so good from November thru last week. The markets bought it all hook line and sinker. The promise of never ending easing and up, up, up away we go.

Well, STB and the core commenters all knew that the truth would eventually rear its ugly head. Their MO is they promise easing and fixes, then get delays, then more delays, promise all will be well, that the next round of easing will be the last, that governments are just fine and economies are becoming established to a point that GDP estimates can be increased. Oh happy day!

All is well. Then they finally apply the solution (see Greece) and not a week later the next storm (or the same one) comes over the horizon, and it is bigger and more threatening than the last. Then they have to find another $50 to $500 billion to bail out the next insolvent government (which is not a government bailout at all), it is a scheme to get money to the banks via insolvent government shells (think AIG and now Greece). At some point they will not be able to print their way out of the hole as they progressively get deeper.

Wednesday, March 21, 2012

It's awful quiet out there right now. Bernank's testimony today may bring some fireworks. A few budget releases in the EU may as well. Economic data for housing has been massaged by a professional, so you know how reliable that happy data will be. EOQ statement prints are looking lovely at this point, and SPY max pain is all the way down at 139 (AAPL is 540). We all know the markets are primed for a fall, but as long as there is no catalyst and the Fed is running the liquidity pumps at full force, there is no reason for a fall as greed will drive valuations even further into unreasonable territory.

The movement in the dollar is also doing its part for the bullish cause (the weaker the better). We all know that the lower the dollar and the lower rates are the cheaper our massive debt is. See the video in The Simple Problems Of Too Much US Debt | ZeroHedge.

Dollar - /DX - Yellow channel support off of the $72 2011 lows resides just below near $78. Upper resistance is around $81. This $3 range should dominate for a while. 200dma is below at $77.68 and strong support at $76.68 is below that. If the EU calms down one should expect the dollar to continue to weaken, but if Portugal, Spain, Italy, Greece falter or if Iran war fears spike, so will the dollar.

Tuesday, March 20, 2012

As the market works on a top here, so many other things are working on their own crescendo. Of course none of this is any good. In fact it is all rather disturbing (quite disturbing actually). If you don't follow the news on the net or rely on the MSM solely for your news you may find some of this either off base or a stretch. Bottom line is what you are about to read below is all real.

It is time for you to take the big boy step and realize just how bad things are both politically and economically. As STB has stated many times recently, the market is NOT the important things here. Far from it as a matter of fact. The markets are a great distraction. They are the smoke screen hiding the painful truth that as an American your rights and freedoms are being taken from you right from under your nose.

In what should be the safest place on the planet for the Secretary of Defense, the unheard of (and never done before) happened, "US soldiers were asked to disarm during a speech by Leon Panetta, the American defence secretary, in a sign of grown concern over spates of seemingly random violence in Afghanistan." Soldiers asked to disarm during Leon Panetta speech in Afghanistan - Telegraph. Yes, we've now reached a point where not even our own military personnel (yes, the same ones we trust to defend the nation) are not trusted with weapons around their own command.

You see, guns are bad. They are not safe and they are about to be taken from us after Obummer gets reelected. An armed nation is not what this government wants. US Attny General Eric Holder is doing everything he can to rid this nation of guns. If you are not familiar with Fast and Furious, read more about it here. You know, when our government shipped guns to Mexico so they would be used to kill our own law enforcement agents so the government could crack down on gun control. You need to listen to, "then-U.S. Attorney Eric Holder announcing a public campaign to "really brainwash people into thinking about guns in a vastly different way."" The Vetting - Holder 1995: We Must 'Brainwash' People on Guns

If you are a bit late to the game and missed the NDAA (You know the National Defense Authorization Act that says you have NO rights at all and that the government can come and lock you up indefinitely for no reason at all) you need to read NDAA Is Washington’s Totalitarian Response To Political Dissent And Economic Collapse Alex Jones' Infowars. Then came ACTA and Sopa and PIPA where the government launched its strike on attempting to control the internet.

All signs are pointing to a manufactured move south to allow for an easier and unchallenged "must have" QE3. This has been a theme of STB since last summer. I was foolish enough to think in August that the "super congress" would actually try and achieve something rather than simply becoming a noisy lame duck. I thought the crash then would be deep enough to trigger QE. Well it did trigger Twist (QE by another name) and allowed the nominal QE3 to remain in the picture as a symbol or promise that more market levitating easing would come one day.
Bottom line is a manufactured move south is coming soon.

The chart in this post inspired mine below. "Reiterating our recent theme, in order to avoid the end of Operation Twist, the Fed's economic outlook would need to deteriorate - which itself is a scenario likely to result in falling stock prices and just as the cause of a 'crash' in PCE towards the end of QE1 and QE2 was a function of higher inflation, we have the current spike in energy prices to ensure this time is no different." Operation Twist Is Coming To An End: A Preview Of The Market Response | ZeroHedge

"Gold will have a “sharp” rally as the U.S. boosts monetary stimulus because of a faltering economy in the coming months, Societe Generale said in a report that was picked up by Bloomberg. Data on U.S. gross domestic product in the first and second quarters will “surprise dramatically to the downside,” the bank said today in a report." SocGen: “Sharp” Gold Rally As US GDP Surprises “Dramatically” to Downside | ZeroHedge http://bit.ly/GCskPV

Monday, March 19, 2012

I hope everyone enjoyed their St. Patrick's Day weekend. Now it is time to get back to work (or suffering if you are a day trader). Lack of clarity only brings one thing to the markets these days and that's optimism. The new normal is if things are bad that's good, if things are good that's OK and if things are murky and unclear that good as well.

Friday, March 16, 2012

Share the green love and green knowledge! (like hit the donate button - LOL , just kidding - not not the green shoot or green planet stuff either - the green of St. Pattys! (which started out blue!) Read about it here - Saint Patrick's Day - Wikipedia,

Maybe a good discussion for this weekend would be the poll question to the right. IMHO I think those that believe they will be able to get any green (money) out of a bank in 2 years are sorely mistaken. I'm not even sure in two years the banking system will exist. IMHO, that crowd does not get where we are headed. They have not bought into what reality is.

Bottom line, you need to know what is driving cost at the store and where those prices are likely headed. What's expensive and what's not? Look below to find out. (Oil, Gold and Silver are at the bottom)

Cocoa - So, why am I still like paying a gazillions dollars for my Snickers fix?

Either Greece is "fixed" or it is not. If not, we have an event which will be a catalyst. If so, we simply have to deal with this BS till the next bailout/funding issue arrives and all the "positive" economic news in between.

We've been reduced to lab rat status.

I'm off a bit this AM (kids no school) so struggling to find time to get something up. I'll be here all day and get a chart ot two up soon.

Thursday, March 15, 2012

What can you say? Another rumor driven QE ramp proving this market has a mind of its own and could care less about valuation (or debt, or the economy, or corruption, or accounting fraud, or whatever). Here Is Why Everything Is Up Today - From Goldman: "Expect The New QE As Soon As April" | ZeroHedge "the fact that just today, none other than Goldman Sachs' Jan Hatzius came out, roughly at the same time as its call to buy Russell 2000, and said that the Fed would announce THE NEW QE, as soon as next month, and as late as June."

I can go for that, but the question is, do they have the balls to do it at these lofty levels (hello all time highs) or does it come after a quick 20% pullback where they can grab some shorts to squeeze? Either scenario fits the GS call. My long term call has been for a fall to generate the need/fear or to make the printing (QE) more politically accommodating and to prop the markets one last time going into the elections. We've discussed more than once here that they can't print, but they will. They must.

Read, Guest Post: "We Have No Other Choice" | ZeroHedge "What's possible is what we perceive, and what's impossible is what happens later whether we thought it possible or not. The "impossible" systemic collapse will happen because we've left no other option open. We will get "wake-up calls" along the way, but these will be ignored because to change anything in the Status Quo will cause pain to someone somewhere, i.e. it is inconvenient. Could we choose another future other than collapse? At this point, the answer is no, because we have no other choice."

Times are really testy right now. You have to ask the question, who's the captain of the ship? Who is the master and who is the slave? The GS front run (rumor) of the Fed today combined with JPM's earlier this week surely gives the appearance that the Bernank is the one playing catcher here. You have to be asking, what's up? Why all the moves independent or against the Fed here and now? Are we sailing in some really troubled waters that no one is telling us about? You gotta have your radar up now with these two breaking ranks.

Don't forget the 19th will be a massive day for Greece. Throw this in from yesterday's post, ""Holy Cow Batman! It’s the HEAD of European Derivatives for one of the biggest CDS players in the world, Goldman Sachs! He’s running for the hills just days before the settlement of the largest CDS payout in the history of the industry! Lay this fact on top of the retirement of the CEO of the CME and the removal of the CME as a European Derivative Clearing Organization and you have one toxic brew." Lock The Doors & Melt The Witch (h/t Soup)

Two of my last topping criteria came home today, AAPL topped 4600 and the SPX topped $1400. Now, do we get the catalyst Friday or Monday with the Greek debt settlement? What I think I am going to do is call a top very soon and play the the if I am wrong blame it on QE card. As mentioned, this is not like in the past when the tops were blatantly easy to call. QE1 ended, top. QE2 ended, top. Pretty simple. This time we have stealth QE and the constant rumor of QE3 that has not been played (although it has/is being played right now and is possibly ending based on the actions of GS and JPM this week).

The markets may top here, yet this may not be the high for the year. This is an election year and you know Barry wants the markets frothing going into the election. That may be tough though with the war coming, the rising dollar, oil, treasuries rising and many other factors out there. Sooner or later this thing crashes and does not recover.

Minis 60m - Purple diagonal backtest with yellow diagonal support. Today I gave you yellow support then later 1393 support. This chart continues to rock it. I really don't think this purple diag gets beat and that we may have topped today. The yellow channel support (that STB followed from December) is just above, and above that are white and pink diags that run near 1420. If those get busted you go to 1460 resistance and then the prior top.

Anyone else out there tired of all of this BS? Seriously, the constant rumor of QE (or actual stealth QE), rumor driven, LTROed, cash pumped, BLS BS, recovery crap that has this market in the stratosphere where we all know it does not belong? I sure am. I know a lot of you are as well.

I don't know what the proverbial bottom line is anymore. They keep changing the friggin rules. Seriously, can there ever be too much debt? You have to wonder (not really, just sayin). How much is too much? The world was gonna end when we first crossed the unthinkable $12 trillion in debt. Now here we are a few short years closing in on $16 trillion and the markets are where? What are the growth projections for debt over the next 5 years?

Well, we have not had our Obi-Wan moment yet (STB's "exogenous event"), but it is seems to be approaching fast. The corruption and evil tactics of the Empire have pushed the Rebel/Muppet Alliance to the tipping point, and the Rebel forces are growing and aligning against the Empire. Wars and social disturbances are rapidly increasing in both number and ferocity across the globe as the Empire tightens its grip on everything economically related. The people have had enough and are finally beginning to express their disappointment with the corrupt and oppressive self serving system of the Elitist Dark Side.

"The dark side of the Force was considered by the Jedi to be the element aligned with fear, hatred, aggression, and malice toward all living things. Such emotions seemed to increase the strength and abilities of a user of the dark side, providing a path towards personal power and the destruction or control of all opposition. It was generally accepted that use of the dark side of the Force was extremely addictive." Wookieepedia, the Star Wars Wiki Does that perfectly label the government and the stooges that serve it or what?

I mentioned this in the comments of the AD last night. The post below is absolutely spot on with STB - the Fed sent the EU off on its own and stopped QE2 in June and the lending overseas thus forcing LTRO2 that way they could focus more here and thus the recent 'non-QE' ramp after reloading diring the Aug/Sep fall.

Now they are ready for a massive infusion of QE3 cause it will have to come. This will either (horrifically) be used up here (hello SPX new highs) or to stop a massive move south and to ramp the markets into the election (with the help of a bunch of shorts lined up for slaughter one last time as they are so accustomed to) as I have been looking for.

"All this goes to show that the Fed never had an alternative to pouring money into the system, and indeed has done so endlessly since late 2008, only taking a break in late 2011 when the baton was passed to every other central bank in the world. Now their time is over, and the baton will have to be handed back to the Fed.

Because when it comes to secular market moves, today's little bout of JPM-related euphoria will be truly transitory if not accompanied by much more printing. After all the chart below is exponential and demands a sacrifice soon: perhaps the PBoC will step in briefly, although unlike the other central banks, China's money tends to stick within its own system. As such a far bigger calf will be required."

Tuesday, March 13, 2012

Guess what? The SPX futures kept rising after hours! Yup, higher high to 1393.25. Nice! NOT! The Fed did exactly what was expected and then JM came to save the party. I want to know what was up with the VIX today. Like some hot chick at a photo shoot - flash, flash, flash, flash. Someone got burned badly.

FOMC day! Expect nothing other than the recycled 'we have ZIRP and tools and will use them if necessary' mumbo jumbo that markets just love. The promise of QE to the markets is like that hot tease you went out with in high school (ladies, reverse this thought). Smoking hot, tight sweaters and jeans that fit just right, looking good and you were gonna get a piece. You kept on pursuing it to almost no end.

Well, in this case when you finally got that piece after a year or so of promises and tease, the build up to the big event brought only total disappointment as you find that she's not all that and a bag of chips once the veil comes off (add your own disappointing thoughts here). She winds up costing way too much money and for a year has bled your finances dry. A total waste of time for something that looked so good. That will be the final release of QE, a severely disappointing event.

In any event we must worship at the QE altar. It is the market. It rules all. We've been reduced to a global economy that is increasingly dependent on more and more stimulus. Without government intervention everything would collapse (not that it is not going to collapse anyway). I suggest you read Balestra Capital: "If Government Programs Were Cancelled, The Economy Would Collapse Back Into Severe Recession" | ZeroHedge which does some justice to that point, but really only scrapes the mold and crust off the loaf of lies that everything that is 'financial' these days.

Dollar - That yellow channel started a year ago off the $72 lows and has three touches on both the top and bottom diagonals. I'm not sure how you trade or trust the movements in fiat, but you have to follow it as (somehow) it remains the global currency of choice.

Monday, March 12, 2012

The below video - ANONYMOUS - REVOLUTION 2012 - *NEW *- What are we capable of? 2.0 - YouTube (h/t KD) really hit home with STB. The reason I want you to watch this is to understand Anonymous. Who are these really bad out of control geeks that hack stuff, release sensitive information and cause all of this commotion? That was the impression I was delivered by the MSM till I began using my freedom and the internet to learn and understand their mission and purpose. Then I came to the conclusion of the raw beauty of anonymous.

We are all part of anonymous. Each person fights or challenges the system in their own unique way. It is a raw American principle that is rising again. A simple vote at the polls to replace a corrupt/owned/special interest serving politician makes you part of Anonymous. My posts here make me a part. Your speaking to your neighbors about the financial crisis, GMO's, foreclosure fraud or any sharing of information make you a contributing member. Realize it or not, anytime you share information that addresses a threat you perceive or a political act you don't like you become part of Anonymous.

Experiment? Orderly default? One at a time please so we can manage the flow? I agree that at times I can take some of the conspiracy stuff a bit far, but on the other hand that exact line of thinking has served STB very well over the past three years on the blog. This ISDA trigger event has gotten me thinking, what if? We all know that the banksters control every event. We all know they are not going to call a personal foul on their own team.

So, what is behind the ruling of a default? I can only speculate that the big 6 banks are either protected or stand to make a substantial sum of money from this ruling. There must be something behind the reasoning other than actually following a "rule". Are they trying to get Greece out of the way before Portugal and Spain (and the rest including the USA) come knocking on the default door? Is this their attempt at controlling contagion or systemic failure across the system?

Friday, March 9, 2012

Everything is falling apart folks. they are bringing down the hammer knowing the markets can't hold out much longer. Should be a big weekend with the ISDA calling the Greek event a default. That move is a bit puzzling to me s why would the banksters do something to hurt themselves (UNLESS) they stand to be on the winning side of the trade.

I'll update charts, follow the futures and the news. We had an "event" Friday. Now let's see how it plays out. We're playing a whole new ball game now having crossed the default line in the sand.

How could a country the size of Massachusetts with over $200 billion in debt be an issue? (/sarc) This thing went off without a hitch. Easy as pie. Bondholders came to the table ready ad willing to step up to the plate, take their haircuts and do what was right for the good of the globe. Or did they? "Yes indeed, the deal was so difficult that the Greek parliament chose to enforce it on holdouts by gunpoint, more specifically retroactive collective action clauses (CACs)". Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis: "Success" at Gunpoint. Nothing like a little influence to get a deal done.

Thursday, March 8, 2012

I'll borrow this from TD this morning because it is so concise, "Yet the mood of the morning is set by speculation that the Greek debt swap may see a sufficient participation rate for the PSI to go through, even if that means CAC activation, as somehow a Greek default is good, and only an "out of control" bankruptcy would be bad. That coupled with renewed expectations of more QE, sterilized or not, and hopes that tomorrow's NFP will be better than expected, as somehow the Fed will pump money even if the economy is "improving", is all that is needed to send the post-roll ES contract to session highs nearly 1% higher than yesterday's close." Overnight Sentiment: Risk On | ZeroHedge

It is always refreshing to hear some inklings of truth from those in the know. We all know this fiat farce is nothing more than a monetary fantasy where the land of milk and honey can go on forever because the CTRL-P crowd will never stop printing. Not to terribly long ago Germany actually bought up the idea of collateral for some of these loans insolvent institutions are making to other insolvent institutions. A novel idea except the lenders print from thin air and the borrowers are supposed to put up some sort of real collateral (like gold). Not a fair trade is it? Welcome to the banksters fleecing of the globe.

Wednesday, March 7, 2012

We've reached the moment. That time when big boy decisions must be made. No more time for BS. Let's get ready to rumble. Of course I am just kidding about all that. It sounded good though. What a joke. Do you really expect governments and banks to come together and actually accomplish something? Seriously? What happens with the Greek PSI deal tomorrow? We can all assume that the deal will (once again) be delayed or put off till whenever, which at that time it will be put off again. They do have a definite end date though - March 20th.

Denninger does a nice job explaining the PSI ramifications here Greece: Are You READY? in [Market-Ticker]. "We are quickly running out of time in America and Europe appears to be the trigger that will force our hand. This does not surprise me; the only surprise is that we've managed to get away with our obfuscation and lies for as long as we have."

OK, nut cuttin time. Can they muster something more than a rumor or delay to bring any sort of solution to the crisis? No is my answer. They are out of time and money (well, they will never be out of money, but inflation is gonna kick their ass). The markets love the thought of more liquidity and the rumor mill spewing MSM BS that all will be well and the recovery is steaming along.

Thursday and Friday mark massive moments for Greece and the EU. At this time you must suspect the PSI deal will be delayed, but for how long with March 20th the Due Day for Greece bond payments? Folks this could be it. The 2008 repeat we've all been speculating (with a very high degree of confidence) would return as the politicians and central bankers have done nothing to fix the debt crisis. The Keynesian reflation trade of hyper-repothecation and fractal exuberance has been nothing but a hopium filled game of kick the can. The extend and pretend game is just about over.

Tuesday, March 6, 2012

Super Tuesday not only for the elections but for the bears as well. Out of hibernation they come in force delivering the first 1% down day of the year and a 200+ point plunge in the DOW. Nice!

It was a calm orderly day that looked and felt like a lot more turbulence was to come at any time. I guess all the PPT could muster is a hold of the level and they gave up early on a BTFD gap close (which was never even threatened). STB pretty much nailed it this morning looking for 1341 support on the minis. For those that missed it, you may want to go and read it, because nothing has really changed and it covers the crisis in good detail.

I did think there would be an opportunity for a scalp pop off that support, but very surprisingly the bulls could not muster anything other than holding support today. If you did not see my SPX Cash Downside Targets post earlier, you may want to look at it. Of course the chartbook is always there. 1333, 22, 18 and 01 are the next support points on the minis.

Signup now and join the fun. Last year I think we had over 30. Heck, everyone does it, look at is as an office pool for the board or a chance just to drop in, whip some butt and leave knowing you dominate.

Everyone wants to know what I see for downside targets and now that it appears that is a subject finally worth talking about, I shall deliver.

A quick look at my ToS chart on cash - I'll do the minis in another post.

First a quick daily look at cash and all the gaps, support and diags that I have on my trading chart. I know this is not the prettiest chart and I can't provide any better links, sorry. The biggies to note here:

Solid black support diag off the Nov lows (1344)price is testing now

Black dashed diag (1309) off the Oct lows

There is a whole gaggle of things from 1335 to 1315 including gaps, prior S/R Lower BB, 50ma and more. That will be a major battle point and the EWT crowd should look for 1 to stop there.

Red descending diag (1320), major market resistance off the '07 top

Orange S/R line at 1307

1300 round level support.

Various S/R lines (black) all over the place)

Gaps are all the brown rectangles

1260 major support for the top in '11 and was the neckline for the August breakdown

Sub 1260 and you start to move in big chunks to gap at 1200 and then another huge hole to 1160, 1125, 1075, 1050, 1010.

It is all about Greece and the markets are getting nervous. It appears very apparent that the PSI deal will fail and the restructuring (that was always doomed, but you were led to believe all would be well) will be delayed yet again. The markets are teetering in the edge of the cliff, but surprisingly hanging on to the hope a deal will be reached (as they seem to always miraculously do these days). Minis are 26 points off the 1377 high and today will generate the first gap down in cash SPX.

"Confirming that the angst 3 days ahead of the Greek PSI deadline is very warranted, we learn that Bingham, which as we noted previously has so far identified and organized a significant group of local law bondholders potentially sufficient to derail the transaction, has now also organized a blocking group of Greek bondholders, this time those holding the country's outstanding Swiss Franc bonds." More PSI Troubles: Greek Swiss Franc Bondholders Organize, Will Hold Out | ZeroHedge

Based on the above it is quite amazing that the markets have not outright busted at this point. The belief in the CTRL-P is strong and the markets simply ignore any bad news (even cheer it these days) as the worse things get only increases the odds for more price levitating easing from the Fed. This is basically the sole reason STB preaches patience and Follow the Fed every day.

Monday, March 5, 2012

Know what - I got to thinking (I must be hitting rock bottom), why not just put all our effort and energy behind getting Obummer reelected? Why, simple, if we need a total collapse and reset of the system I can't think of anyone that would get us there on a faster course. All the others would find some way to instill hope (God I hate that word now) for another year or two before the inevitable comes anyway. Let's just get this over with. The sooner the better.

On the other hand if he does not get reelected it will clearly be a racial event. It will be because he's black (well whatever ratio of black he is - not sure how that falls into consideration) and this nation will explode with racial tension. They have the ultimate puppet as POTUS. Divide and conquer is their MO and either way they will continue to drive a massive wedge down the center of this country to maintain their power base. Either way, trouble is coming in a big way.

Since we all know it is all about Greece right now and the key upcoming dates 03/09, 13 and 20), nibble on this, "Greece may fail to garner enough investors to participate in a voluntary writedown of its debt, Der Spiegel magazine reported, citing unnamed officials at the European Central Bank. A second Greek bailout is partly tied to investors’ agreeing to the writedown by a March 8 deadline." Remember that Germany has made it very, very, very explicit that if the PSI fails, the bailout is off... just as they have planned from the get go." Oops: ECB Says Greek PSI Participation May Fall Short, As Troika Expects Third Greek Bailout | ZeroHedge

Not suere how long I have been mentioning these important dates, but "So we have the hard date of March 9 when either the threshold for the exchange is met or not, the imposition of the CAC clause or not, the next “Question” to the ISDA if the CAC is triggered asking if there has been a credit event to trigger the CDS contracts, the possible consequences of a CDS trigger, the decision on the bailout funds by the EU and finally the March 20 hard date when Greece must make its bond payments or default. Guest Post: The Next 15 Days Of Our Lives | ZeroHedge.

Oh and the FOMC meeting on March 13th is a biggie as well. SHTF is about to go down and the markets are ready.

Friday, March 2, 2012

OK after drawing my own conclusions and listening to AJ this week, I think the time to be scared s-less is closer than ever. This Breitbart media release of Obummer footage was to close, and I believe the odds of his demise being a hit are pretty good. The man was going after Obummer in an election year and one of his last interviews was with Sheriff Joe (the man who released the proof of falsified birth cert and selective service card Thursday - video below). The man was going to single handedly take down Obummer, and I think he probably got whacked.

AJ was discussing what other radio and media personalities are saying. They all are scared and there is a supposed blackout (your life or your job will be lost if you report on any of this stuff - see The Secret Memo That Explains Why Obama Can Kill Americans - The Atlantic) on anyone that covers this stuff. Think about it. We have a president that could not pass a background check to work as a sheriff and he's got known radical socialist background and he's from Chicago. The man is all about racial division and social warfare - divide and conquer - is this hope and change and unity? DUH!

I think the possibility of someone else going down in the next week or so is pretty good. This is one hot potato. Possibly the hottest of all. They are fighting for the presidency here. Add to this the racial charge that will come down if he's proven a fake (Not to mention the slight problem of having an illegal president for the last 3 years). Not good. It can NOT be proven he's a fake under any circumstances - NONE! Breitbart was going for the jugular and got taken out.

I don't have much to cover news wise this morning. The liquidity train in the EU pulled into the station and got a full tank and is ready to roll again.

Here is the scam, the fleecing, the theft in broad daylight that the banksters that hold the world hostage (cause they are the only ones that can print money) are pulling off - "roughly 800 European banks will bleed by €6 billion in the next year just to store their cash with the ECB." What Carry Trade? Euro Banks Deposit Entire LTRO 2 At ECB, Bring Total To Over $1 Trillion | ZeroHedge. So they print money from thin air to infuse an insolvent banking system only to immediately receive all of it back in deposit and collect 75 bps in the process - BRILLIANT. Where does the money come from to pay the loss on the carry trade? Your pocket and mine. That's fucked up and the sheeple of the world do nothing. that's even more fucked up.

Thursday, March 1, 2012

The birthers have been given their greatest gift, proof from law enforcement that Obummer's junk ain't right. I saw Sheriff Joe Arpaio's complete press conference. Bottom line is Obama, "could not pass a background check to be an employee of the Maricopa county Sheriff's Office."

The birth certificate and selective service documents are "forgeries". OK, this is not coming from fringe conspiracy nuts or the internet crowd. This is coming from a real sheriff. A real law enforcement investigation. They system is now challenging the system. Obummer can not just come out and bury it but they will. You know they will. The controlled MSM will not cover it. This is an election year and Soros et al will have orders out to bury this one.

Sheriff Joe's big problem is to whom does he turn the investigation over to at this point? This is truly an us against the world scenario. Sheriff Joe is obviously, you could see him personally struggle with the question, concerned with that as Obummer controls all things federal and military. He's leaning to a congressional investigation.

Folks, a sheriff's office, that is really serious abut this, has proof that would stand up in court that crimes were committed. the forgeries were the only evidence presented. there is more, a lot more that they are holding back. This can not be "papered" over any longer. Obummer will need to produce real original documents or he more than likely will not be on the ballot of AZ and more than likely several other states.

STB is saddened by the death of Andrew Breitbart. We wish his family the best. AB was an awesome journalist that we read often. Did you know that according to what I heard on the Alex Jones Radio Show AB's last interview may have been with Sheriff Joe? STB finds that more than interesting.

Another interesting fact about AB's death revolves around the government as well, "Breitbart’s untimely death has shocked the media world and left some to question whether or not damning footage of Obama in his youth, which Breitbart announced he had obtained only last month, will still be released." Will Damning Obama Footage Still Be Released After Breitbart’s Death? Alex Jones

About Shanky

I am a former financial professional that blogs for fun. I enjoy sharing my thoughts with others on my blogs. I hold nothing back and apologize for the foul language in advance, but dire situations require accurate descriptions. Please feel free to contact me with your thoughts or tips at the email address provided. Enjoy!

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