Probabilistic Prediction of the Outcome of Bone-Marrow Transplantation

Abstract:
Bone-marrow transplantation is considered the treatment of choice for
pediatric patients with recurring acute lymphoblastic leukemia, provided that
a suitable donor is available. Many prognostic factors are known that help to
predict the likely outcome of transplantation. We have implemented a system
that applies probabilistic reasoning to the available data about individual
patients to help determine the risk of recurrence and morbidity after
transplantation, and to predict life expectancy. The resulting predictions
can be used to decide whether marrow transplantation is the most desirable
treatment modality for the patient.