On November 14, the day after
Kevin Rudd
announced he was quitting politics,
Tony Abbott
started setting the scene for the pending byelection in Rudd’s Brisbane seat of Griffith.

He did not quite proclaim it to be a referendum on the carbon tax, as he had badged the September 7 federal election, but he came close.

Taking a Dorothy Dixer from Queensland Liberal MP
Karen Andrews
about the benefits to Queensland of scrapping the carbon tax, the Prime Minister let fly with the pro forma spiel before localising it.

“When it comes to the great state of Queensland, under the former government’s own figures, gross state product in Queensland would be 4 per cent lower by 2050 with the carbon tax than it would be without it,’’ he said. “The carbon tax is an anti-Queensland tax.’’

This week, when asked whether he was “still seeing the byelection as something of a referendum on this question of the carbon tax’’, the Prime Minister played down its significance as little more than a contest between locals based on local issues.

“The byelection in Griffith will essentially be [about] who do the people of that part of Brisbane want to represent them,’’ he said.

“They can have someone who is absolutely dedicated to being Griffith’s representative in Canberra or they can have someone who is going to be Canberra’s representative in Griffith and I think they want a strong local and that’s what I think it’s essentially about up there."

Coalition still not giving up

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The election, to be held next Saturday, February 8, will be fought primarily between Labor’s Terri Butler and Liberal candidate and opthamologist
Bill Glasson
, who secured a 5.5 per cent two-party-preferred swing against Rudd on September 7, whittling his margin back to 3 per cent.

Technically, both could be labelled former union officials. Butler is an industrial lawyer with a union background. Glasson is a former Australian Medical Association president.

The reason the Coalition has started to play down the importance of Griffith is because it believes it will lose.

Not that it has given up. Abbott will be there today, for Glasson’s launch.
Julie Bishop
was there during the week and
Joe Hockey
and
Malcolm Turnbull
have scheduled visits next week.

Labor, too, is not counting it as a victory. Leader
Bill Shorten
spent about four days there last week and a cavalcade of Labor frontbenchers, including
Tanya Plibersek
, were in the seat this week.

Glasson’s task is a tough one. He secured 42 per cent of the primary vote at the election and a Labor poll conducted mid January had him as high as 47 per cent, a figure some believe is due to there being no Clive Palmer candidate this time. Others believe it is rubbery.

Either way, with 11 candidates in the field, preferences will be crucial and should favour Butler.

Both sides believe Glasson would have to win the seat in his own right with a primary vote of over 50 per cent. The bookies are also offering short odds on Butler.

About more than numbers

According to the Parliamentary Library, there have been 146 federal byelections since Federation and only five have been lost by the opposition of the day.

The most recent two such losses were the Nationals seat of Lyne, which fell to independent Rob Oakeshott in 2008, and the Labor seat of Cunningham, which fell to the Greens in 2002.

The most winnable of the five byelections caused by Coalition retirements upon the election of the Rudd government was the Gippsland byelection but the Coalition held that, even under the leadership of a struggling
Brendan Nelson
.

Liberal strategists believe Glasson will be lucky to secure a swing on top of the one he secured in September to take Griffith.

So all the odds are stacked against a Coalition victory.

Numerically, it does not matter who wins the seat because of the Coalition’s large parliamentary majority, but psychologically and strategically it will be important.

Abbott may not wish to consider it a referendum on the carbon tax or anything else significant but Labor, if it wins, will claim vindication for events so far.

Shorten, whose leadership is near bulletproof thanks to the new rules bequeathed by Rudd, has already told colleagues he will cop the blame if Labor loses Griffith, and take the credit if it wins.

In the event of Labor victory, it will further Shorten’s resolve to oppose the abolition of the carbon tax, the mining tax and the restoration of the Australian Building and Construction Commission.

Abbott is taking a sensible course by playing down the significance of Griffith.

Lumpy start

His government has had a lumpier start than most new administrations thanks to a combination of stuff-ups and dilemmas.

The next six months are perilous for his administration.

An audit commission followed by an unpalatable budget and a delicate dance with a ragtag new Senate to fulfil his key election promises of abolishing the carbon and mining taxes all await.

By placing too much stock in the outcome of Griffith, he would rob himself further of capital.

In addition, there have also been early tough decisions such as cutting adrift General Motors Holden and SPC Adrmona and sending a message to the rest of industry that the corporate welfare is no more. There may well be short-term political blowback from these positions but the government is looking at the next federal election, not Griffith.

A more important test in the short term will be fresh Senate elections in Western Australia. We should know on Monday whether the High Court is going to order WA voters back to the polls after about 1300 votes went missing during a recount.

The Coalition, which won three Senate spots in WA, opposes a fresh election on the grounds it could not better this result and only go backwards.

In early November, senior WA Senator and Finance Minister
Mathias Cormann
declared any new WA election as “another opportunity for the people of Western Australia to send a strong and clear message to Bill Shorten that they want the carbon tax gone.’’

Phillip Coorey is
The Australian Financial Review
’s chief political correspondent.