000
FXUS64 KMRX 070754
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Morristown TN
354 AM EDT Sun Jun 7 2020
.SHORT TERM (Today and Tonight)...More great weather expected
today and tonight as a weak front drops south across the area. Dry
air with only weak instability will limit much of any precipitation
with the boundary. However, there will be a slight chance of a
shower or thunderstorm over part of Southwest North Carolina this
afternoon as the front slips south. Otherwise, skies will be
mostly sunny with high temperatures well above normal again in the
upper 80s and lower 90s. Lows will range from around 60 north to
the upper 60s and lower 70s south.
.LONG TERM (Monday through Saturday)...Models are in good
agreement overall for much of the period, but more significant
differences are seen late leading to decreased forecast confidence
for the latter periods. We will start off the period under the
influence of the mid/upper ridge that will be over the area. The
tropical system (Cristobal) will be tracking up just west of the
Mississippi River. Subsidence will likely be strong enough to keep
much of the area dry and hot Monday, but southerly flow will
bring increasing moisture, so will carry slight chancePoPs south
to allow for at least isolatedconvection there.
By Tuesday the ridge axis will be sliding off to our east, and the
remnants of Cristobal will continue to track north before being
kicked rapidly north/northeast by a mid/upper leveltrough moving
out of the Plains. The trough will advance east and a cold front
will push through our area Wednesday. This will bring showers and
some thunderstorms to the area both Tuesday and especially
Wednesday. With high PWAT values in place there may be some very
heavy downpours, but right now things look progressive enough to
limit flooding potential.
Surface high pressure building in behind the front should provide a
dry Thursday with high temperatures close to seasonal normals.
Models disagree for Friday/Saturday as they are depicting another
mid/upper leveltrough dropping out of the western Great Lakes
region and another cold front pushing through our area. However,
the GFS is much more progressive in bringing this in than the ECMWF.
For now will lean toward the ECMWF and keep Friday dry, then some
low PoPs for convection on Saturday.
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.
There will not be a great deal of weather to disrupt flight
operations during the period with limited moisture in the low
levels and a few ac and ci showing up as the period progresses due
to easterly flow off the Atlantic building into the tropical
circulation of Cristobal. The only spot that will be a problem for
a brief time around sunrise will be a reduction in visibility
from mvfr to possibly ifr category along with a brief vlifr
ceiling.
&&
.POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 93 72 89 72 88 / 0 0 20 20 50
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 92 68 89 71 89 / 0 0 10 10 30
Oak Ridge, TN 92 67 90 71 88 / 0 0 10 10 30
Tri Cities Airport, TN 87 61 91 66 89 / 10 0 10 10 30
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$