Foreign Policy: Obama Facing Iran Dilemma

Tim Marshall

Diplomatic Editor

The biggest foreign policy issue facing newly re-elected President Barack Obama is the prospect of a nuclear armed Iran.

Tehran says it is not seeking nuclear weapons, the Americans and others disagree.

Mr Obama is on record as saying he will not allow Iran to obtain nuclear weapons.

Next year is widely predicted to be the year when Iran will cross a red line set by the Israelis, and possibly the line hinted at being the limit of American patience.

The Israeli red line, which could trigger military action, is Iran having enough enriched uranium to be able to make a bomb. The American red line is an Iranian decision to make that bomb.

But, if the Israelis attack, the Americans may feel they have to join in to ensure the Iranian nuclear project is destroyed.

It is a scenario that will take up a lot of the president's thinking, and one which has consequences that might even keep 'No drama Obama' awake at night.

He may offer Iran the 'grand bargain', which many analysts believe is what Tehran really wants: diplomatic relations, trade, and security guarantees.

If that fails - and the Iranians are master at dragging out negotiations - then the phrase 'all options are on the table' will be increasingly heard.

In the short-term, another foreign policy issue requiring attention is Syria.

The US administration is deeply suspicious of the Syrian opposition and does not wish to arm a divided movement which has elements that one day might turn their guns on Americans.

Mr Obama will seek to help unite the opposition and ensure the more moderate elements come to the fore. That is a difficult task and he has few tools in the diplomatic box to achieve his aims.

In the longer term, the relationships with Russia and China need attention.

Mr Obama's much vaunted 'reset' of relations with Moscow has not gone well. He will need to come to an understanding with President Putin over Syria, Iran, and Afghanistan. His deeply held desire to reduce the number of nuclear weapons each country holds will also be revisited.

Mr Obama has already told us that the USA's strategic global position is pivoting towards the relationship with China.

This inevitable move carries with it inherent difficulties. The USA must ensure it does not antagonise Beijing, while at the same time reassure Washington allies in the Far East who fear the rise of China.

The president began his first term vowing to concentrate on the Middle East peace process. He made zero progress.

The time is not yet right for him to focus again on the Israelis and Palestinians, but as he nears the end of his final term, he will, like Bill Clinton before him, attempt to solve the problem which has bedevilled generations of American diplomats.