Rosenthal’s Latest: Jays, Cubs, Gurriel, Astros

Given his age (36 in October), defensive issues and dip in offensive production, Blue Jays right fielder Jose Bautista’s chances of landing the five-year deal he desires were already dropping before he landed on the disabled list Friday with a sprained toe, reports FOX Sports’ Ken Rosenthal (video link). Further, some teams might not even see Bautista as the most appealing Blue Jay set to hit the free agent market this winter, per Rosenthal, who notes that designated hitter/first baseman Edwin Encarnacion is almost three years younger than Bautista and left fielder Michael Saunders, 29, leads all major league outfielders in OPS (.997).

Here are more rumblings from Rosenthal:

The Cubs remain unlikely to deal catcher/outfielder Kyle Schwarber, who suffered a season-ending knee injury in early April and has been the subject of trade rumors. Chicago regards Schwarber as a top-caliber middle-of-the-order hitter whose woes against left-handed pitching will fade. The Cubs are also bullish on Schwarber’s makeup, says Rosenthal, and believe getting him back next season will be like adding a high-end free agent.

The Dodgers, Mets and Yankees are clear fits for Cuban free agent Yulieski Gurriel, but the Giants are also possible suitors, according to Rosenthal. The 32-year-old second and third baseman might also be able to play left field, where San Francisco could soon have a need if Angel Pagan and Gregor Blanco leave as free agents after the season.

Having won 16 of 24 to rebound from a 17-28 start, the Astros have gone from prospective sellers to potential buyers. The club still sits 11 games out of first place in the AL West and five games from a Wild Card spot, but it could look to improve both its rotation and offense, Rosenthal reports.

Comments

Multiple reports have said that the Cubs believe schwarber might be a better hitter than Bryant at the end of his career. That honestly wouldn’t surprise me. If you look at schwarber’s numbers (including playoffs), you could argue that schwarber from last year played better than Bryant is this year, and Bryant’s been raking.

Other thing I’ll say is that schwarber was rushed up before he could learn how to play OF. He will become better. If he can switch off as a 2nd/3rd string catcher and play adequate outfield, the Cubs have an all-star caliber player with that bat.

They gave up on him playing the OF in the minors. His bat is ready but the place he could be most product is blocked. Although I could see a utility type role where the bounce him around OF, 1b, and C once in a blue moon. Although defensively from the games I saw he vastly improved in the OF from last year. Cubs can’t keep everyone so that’ll be telling what they decide to do.

OF-1B-C is exactly what it will be. He’ll start primarily in the OF, but Joe likes to move and substitute guys enough that he’ll get some starts at catcher. Since we don’t have a real replacement to give Rizzo a day off, he’ll have to fit there as well. Not under any illusions that he will be good at any of those positions, but that’s how I see him moving forward.

Soler, despite the fact that I think he’s going to be a really good hitter, probably ends up as trade bait.

Bryant impresses me most at his in game adjustments. He got struck out
On a curve his first AB. I knew he’d adjust and his second AB he hit a curve to center for A 2 run HR. Cubs won 2-0. Point being I think he’s gonna be a better hitter than KS. I think Schwarber will be great tho. If I could get Chapman AND Miller (and my key would e re-sign Chapman to 2/3 more years, I make the move. If your 7-9 innings look like ….Miller, Rondon, Chapman?!!? All over that. Furthermore , I’d add Vogelbach and another prospect for a Severino type prospect. Sweeten the deal.

Chapman is getting a lot more than 2-3 years on his deal. Maybe if you could hang the QO over his head (the Cubs couldn’t) and offered a very high AAV….But he has to be looking at a minimum of 4, likely 5 years.

I think this will be a very interesting topic. Chapman is pretty dominant, doesn’t have any real injury history that I’m aware of (I may be wrong here), and is pretty young. I think you could see him set some records for relievers. I will be very interested to see what some team signs him for (both $/yrs).

Papelbon and Ryan are the only ones I can think of. Several got 4 years with an option year. With Chapman’s age and dominance, I would think that Papelbon’s contract would be the floor of negotiations both in length and overall dollars. Rivera got $15 million per season, so that amount of money AAV is probably where I would be focusing on if I were his agent. A 5 year, $75 million deal is certainly not out of the question.

Vogelbach is not s big prospect and the Yanks have a first base prospect they like allot in Greg Bird. They would never trade Severino for a marginal prospect like Vogelbach who isn’t even a top ten cub prospect. In order to get Miller and Chapman your giving up more then Schwarber! Maybe Happ and your best pitching prospect?

Cubs fans are the new Red Sox fans in assuming one of their prospects brings in a top reliever. Miller, considering his dominance and contract, will easily bring in two top 7 prospects. Doesn’t necessarily have to be Schwarber, but it will easily cost two top prospects. Throw in Chapman, and despite his free agency at the end of the year, he’s still a dominant reliever. For the Cubs to acquire both of them, it would easily cost at least 3 of their top 10 prospects and probably another couple of B level prospects. That’s purely the price of good relievers in today’s game. Doubt me? Look at the trades for Craig Kimbrel and Ken Giles. They were definetly overpays, but for good players you have to overpay. Also, Schwarber is not nearly as valuable as people make him out to be. The guy showed he can mash the ball as well as anybody else, but that’s all he can do and hurting his value is that he’s coming off a season ending injury and seems destined to be a 1B/DH.

The Kimbrel trade was very much an overpay. He got back 2 prospects in the 50ish range at the time of the trade.

Ken Giles is cheaper and under control for longer so isn’t a great comp to Miller imo. The scouts were divided on VV from what I can remember because of his injury concerns and long term outlook at whether he was a sp or bp arm. Then they got Appel who was ranked in the 30s.

Rental relievers like Chapman will probably get back something like a back end 100 and a lottery ticket or 2.

I like looking at what a prospect is ranked more through the league than on an individual team, because you have teams like the angels where their #1 prospect wouldn’t crack some top 10s (that may be hyperbole but you get the point). The astros have/had a good farm system and I think VV and Appel were both in or at least around their top 5, Fisher was lower. Red sox had one of the best systems and I seem to recall there was some debate on where the redsox prospects ranked organizationally especially with Guerra having a break out year and not a lot of track record.

With all of that said….yes, if the cubs want miller they are going to have to trade a decent package for him. No, I don’t think that package will ever include Schwarber. If the yankees demand him, or some exorbitant package for Miller I’d trust the cubs front office to just walk away and either find another trade partner or continue their “sign old starter tell him he’s a bp arm now” trend.

The cubs window for contention isn’t closing this year. And it’s probably not gonna close after jake leaves either. They have a glut of young talented positional players and they can trade for a starter or maybe one of the 500 they’ve drafted in the last few years will figure it out. Or they can buy one because their debt agreement restrictions will be lifted soon.

While it is true that they haven’t won in over 100 years, this narrative that they need to go for it because they haven’t won in 108 years, is dumb. Front offices for the most part don’t operate like fans and that appears especially true for this team. Theo Epstein had a plan to build a long term pipe line of talent. I can’t see him just changing course and trading what they see as a long term piece (Schwarber) for a reliever, even a very good one.

Cashman and Thoyer seem to have a pretty good rapport though, so I wouldn’t be shocked to see these two teams link up if NYY even make their arms available.

Given his age is 31 and his 4.42 career ERA, Miller will bring in less in trade than Kimbrel did when traded to the Red Sox. Obviously, he has pitched better than his career average in the last few years, but at 31 the inevitable decline in performance due to age is coming quickly.

2012-2016 he switched to the pen and has posted 3.77, 2.44, 1.58, 2.06 and a ridiculously low so far 0.76 xfip

He’s 32 and yes a decline may be on the horizon, but as of right now he’s dominant and you pay for what he’s doing now and the last 5 years hes had a 2.5 or less xfip- he wil command at least an equal kimbrel trade. Doubt he gets giles type trade cause giles had 5 years of team control.

Cubs want miller and chapmam for the long haul they can either do schwarber and lesser prospects, or go torress vogelbach mckinney happ cj edwards and others. You’re not getting 2 pitchers posting 2.5 or less xfip 5 years in a row for anything less than premier guys. They could ship them off elsewhere and net double the prospects the cubs would be giving up.

If they want just miller- happ mckinney vogelbach sands black and markey would be a good package. Miller nets 2 top 100 prospects in happ and mickinney, plus a LHP pitcher in sands. RHPs in black(relief) and Markey(starter) and 1B in vogelbach.

Keep in mind before kimbrel was traded both times he also had 5, 6 years of an xfip of 2.5 or less.

Meh, i think that was largely lip service. If you look at Bryant’s season this year, he has also made some swing adjustments and has cut his Ks by 8%. Bryant also has more speed (he’s not a burner, but he is sneaky fast) which will allow him to leg out hits schwarber wouldn’t and also possibly stretch some singles to doubles.

I don’t think Schwarber ends up being a better hitter. That’s not really a knock on him though. KB is pretty good and he appears capable of making necessary adjustments.

You are correct that he should not have got that contract, but they also aren’t really the same player. Pujols is legitimately a generational talent.

In addition to that, pujols was younger when he signed so I think the Angels were banking on building up surplus value in the front end of that contract while they were contending and then just dealing with pujols’ decline years after their window closed. Unfortunately for them, his decline started immediately.

Yea, I never saw him getting 5, now he has no chance at this rate. Even though his OBP is elite, and his OPS is very good, his defense is killing his value. Unless an A.L team signs him to DH, I don’t see how he’s going to get much of a deal from anyone. He needed another .900 OPS, 4+ WAR year to have a chance at a 4/100 deal. Now, he’ll be lucky to get 3/60 if he ends up with where his stats are now: .815 OPS and on pace for 2 WAR.

last year theo got pieces for the bullpen at the flea market. lets see what he does this year. doesnt need to make a deal tomorrow but he really should pull the trigger if he can a closer like Chapman or Miller. theo should give them what they want for either or both and try to win the world series. theo should not hold back on trading prospects.

More I think about it . I real love how you all are . No really ! Braves fan tell you that Tehran is worth what we say he worth and he is top rotation guy and you all make fun me and call me names when I put trade out there that will help all team involve . Then try to be nice . Even though you call me troll , who nothing about baseball . Then I give proof of trade that big you right me off and then take time to right down 16 of what you all think are so call aces and number one and I show you in those statics that your age like to use to prove your right about some ball player like war fip and rest of those mindless stats and you all say what or troll or stripped just because you are all lazy and won’t take time to look at the stats and realize I’m right about Tehran, your wrong .that you don’t have to throw 97 to 100 mlp to be ace . I even give a example of a trade just two years ago involving the Cubs and athletics , that prime marry piece is not even as good as Tehran and you still don’t want to admire he worth hell a lot more then you all none Braves fan want give him and us credit for . And bye way once again Braves do not have to trade him and rather like it or he best pitcher on the market . And numbers show it. So take time look again at numbers and stop be troll to radar gun or what you think all to be all advance metrics . Use your brains don’t be dame puppet , sometime it good to look out side the box sheep

Ya it brutal to the sheep
I’m going to try again to put out another block buster . I know you all nock it again but who cares what you think .Your all mindless sheep any way. None of you can think out side box . So here it is.

I may be missing something, but Bautista said he was not looking for 5 years or anywhere near the money guys like Rosenthal and Heyman are claiming and the Blue Jays President and GM both said Bautista was not asking for 5 years or anywhere near the money guys like Rosenthal and Heyman are claiming, so why do we keep seeing articles on here quoting the same guys that both Bautista and the Blue Jays have said are not telling it like it is?

Toronto can not offer the money to keep EE. Red Sox or Yankees will get him. Bautista three years 60 million they can afford and play him at 1B and DH most of the time. 50 per cent chance Jose takes that offer which is an overpay.

New Toronto management is showing fiscal awareness which is vital when you have a Canadian dollar worth 77 cents. Jays have enough pitching signed for several years with
reasonable contracts for Happ, Estrada

Not taking the time to comprehend what something means does not make something stupid; it makes you ignorant.

I’d never entirely discount traditional statistics and the “eye test,” but sabermetrics enable us to understand the game at an even deeper level. Stop mocking something you don’t comprehend. There’s a reason front offices in all sports are using advanced analytics, and that reason is that numbers don’t lie.

Why do people refuse to accept and learn what these valuable metrics mean? Sure, go ahead and say that you just like to enjoy the game as it is and not dig too deep into numbers, but you don’t need to bash people because they’re willing to learn new things and implement them into their enjoyment of the game. The beauty of baseball is that it can be enjoyed in a number of different ways, and many choose to enjoy it with a greater understanding of what’s happening on the field.

Sabermetric numbers lie though…… or at least assume. WAR is an assumption and it is easily the most overused/overrated stat saber lovers constantly cite. Wins above replacement??? The name of the “stat” alone screams assumption. Then when you read the fangraphs definition of it, it pretty much says to take WAR with a grain of salt. Yet everyone treats it as if it is an absolute fact that can legitimately be measured. Then there is defensive runs saved. Another HUGE assumption and IMO GREATLY over exaggerates a player’s defensive ability. While there are obviously better fielding players than others at their positions….. obviously…. I don’t think DRS is very accurate. Let’s use the Cubs as an example. Dexter Fowler IMO is an average fielder. Heyward is one of the better fielding OFers. Last year Fowler supposedly, according to DRS COST the Cubs 12 runs with his fielding (-12 DRS), whereas Heyward “saved” the Cardinals 24 runs. Do you honestly believe Heyward is worth 36…. THIRTY SIX runs on defense over Fowler? That’s absurd to me. Fowler had a .925 “revised zone rating” compared to Heyward’s .935….. pretty damn close. Heyward made 200 plays hit in his zone and 103 plays made out of his zone. Fowler made 278 plays in his zone and 80 out of his zone. This could be viewed as Fowler not having as much range….. or maybe Fowler just had fewer opportunities…… or he had as many opportunities but instead of him making the play the left or right fielder made the play as Fowler peeled off. DRS makes no mention of this. One thing is evident though, Fowler made WAY more plays last year than Heyward did and in the process only made 1 more error in the OF than Heyward did. Fowler had a .988 FLDG% compared to Heyward’s .990……. oh so much better. Yet one is a perennial GG winner and Fowler is (or at least was last year) considered an average to below average fielder. Similar zone rating though….. near identical fldg%s….. more play made by Fowler…….. yet somehow he cost the Cubs 12 runs last year and Heyward saved 24 for the Cards. Makes no friggin sense IMO. I’m not saying they are on par with each other, but I think worst case, Fowler is “just” an average fielder……… if not slightly above average…. even last year. Heyward, is a good OFer. I wouldn’t say he is insanely better than Fowler though. After getting to watch him this year I don’t really see anything jaw dropping from Heyward other than he needlessly makes a lot of sliding catches to make the catches more difficult IMO. Does DRS give style points or something? I’ve seen Heyward make some throws to try and double up runners too this year…… I wouldn’t say he has a mediocre arm, but it certainly isn’t a cannon. So again, I think Sabermetric numbers lie. They are openly assumptions and not actual stats. IMO they are awful assumptions at that….. ESPECIALLY WAR. Prime example of WAR being absurd? Andrelton Simmons. I’ve already stated how I think DRS is ridiculous, so that pretty much throws shade on Simmons for me. Yes, he is one of if not the best fielding SS in the game. Do I think he saves his team 30-41 runs like he supposedly did in 2013? HELL NO. In 2013 Simmons made 446 plays at SS…… apparently in those plays he “saved” 41 runs. That means that almost 1 in every 10 plays he made saved a run…. BS. Simmons’s offense is about as good as a backup IFer. .250 BA and about a .300 OBP is about what you can expect from him in a GOOD year with a pathetic .666 OPS. Yet somehow he manages to be a 4-6 WAR player????? No. Just….. No. When the Angels made the trade for him and Braves fans were acting like they got hosed in the deal, I didn’t get it. At the time and still today I think the Braves pulled one over on the Angels. Simmons is almost useless offensively and is well above average in the field. I don’t care what anyone says, if Simmons keeps putting up .250 or lower BAs and .300 or lower OBPs each year, he’ll be riding the bench sooner rather than later regardless of his defense. His defense is the only reason he is a starter right now. If people didn’t think sabermetric stats were actual facts and viewed them as what they are, loose assumptions, Simmons might not even be a ML player right now. I mean just look how futile his offensive numbers are so far this year. Granted he missed some time but in 35 games he has a .220 BA and an even more pathetic .248 OBP to go with a .531 OPS……. I can think of about a dozen pitchers hitting better than that. Yet according to WAR Simmons is still 0.5 WAR. Bull. If Simmons is a 0.5 WAR then how is Corey Seager not like 15 WAR. Seager is a 2.3 WAR player despite being insanely more productive than Simmons…… Seager produces more offense than about 3-4 Simmonses put together. Seager’s zone rating isn’t much lower than Simmons’ and his range factor is actually higher. Seager has 9 errors in 279 chances compared to Simmons’ 4 in 165 chances. So IMO while Simmons may be better than Seager at fielding…. he isn’t sooooo much better that it makes a huge difference, especially seeing as Seager actually provides offense whereas Simmons doesn’t… and never has.

So yeah, sabermetrics do have their place in the game. I just don’t think it is the forefront of how to judge players like how it is currently being used. Simmons is NOT worth what the Angels gave up for him. I said it at the time and was chastised. I think maybe some Angels fans might be coming to my side after witnessing Simmons’ lack of production on offense firsthand. His great defense isn’t enough to compensate for his pathetic offensive output. The perk of being in the AL is that the pitcher doesn’t hit…… in the Angels’ case Simmons is their de facto pitcher in the lineup. Some sabermetric stats are a bit better, but the ones CONSTANTLY cited as proof someone is better than someone else are generally the worst saber stats IMO, those being WAR and most defensive “stats.” IMO the only defensive measurement you need to take on a player is with your eyes. Sabermetric defensive stats try to do something you can clearly just see from a player, and IMO just watching a player on defense is WAY more accurate than the sabermetric stats that have algorithms that need whole pages to explain. IMO, if you don’t know how to calculate it, don’t cite it. As for WAR……. to me it is a joke.

If the Cubs trade Schwarber I’d question everything I thought this team was about. Schwarber looks like he could be a white version of what Ortiz is doing this year. You don’t give that up for a friggin reliever. Yes, excellent, shutdown relievers are GREAT to have……… but they’re still JUST relievers. They play in, TOPS, 80-90 innings per season versus an everyday player playing 1,400+ innings. IF they would do the idiotic and trade Schwarber for Miller….. and it would have to be Miller, it would have to be a straight up trade if not NY sending a prospect in return. I hear Yankee fans on here saying the Cubs would have to send like 2-4 good prospects the Yankees way for any one of the 3. HAHAHAHAHA. If that’s what they think they’re going to get then let them think it….. I just know/hope it won’t be from the Cubs. And if the Nats and Giants are your other main potential trade partners, good luck getting as high caliber prospects from them. Look that the Red Sox gave up for one of the best closers in the game, if not the best in Kimbrel. They gave up a top prospect in Margot and then 3 other mediocre to uninspiring prospects. And yet I hear Yank fans wanting Soler, who is a ML player already, and then like 2 other top prospects from the farm. Ok. we can do that trade for, say, Miller…….. who else are you sending over then in that trade, because for you to get what you want it will have to be more than just a 31 year old reliever…. not even a closer.

I hope they don’t even waste their time with the Yankees. I’d rather see them go after just as good LH reliever but much lower profile in the A’s Sean Doolittle. Might only cost you a top prospect and maybe some PTBNL. Vogelbach and some random player for Doolittle I think would be enough. Or Soler for Doolittle straight up. But I am not ready to toss aside Soler. I know there are a lot of Cub fans ready to throw Soler to the side, but they need to realize, 1) he’s still only 24 years old, and 2) between the majors and minors he’s only played 362 professional games. Not exactly a ton of experience under his belt. His walk rate was up this year, and just before hitting the DL he was catching fire at the plate the 2+ weeks leading up to the DL stint. But that’s really only been his only major red flag IMO…… his health. He is appearing to be more and more injury prone. I would like to see them give him one more chance in 2017 for a full time gig, but if he struggles or id injured again….. trade him. With Almora and Schwarber on the team Soler is slowly becoming expendable. If it were me calling the shots though, next year I would like to see Schwarber in LF every day and (assuming he does well this year and next spring training) Almora in CF everyday while Soler fills the role of Chris Coghlan. A roving spot starting 4th OFer in either LF or RF. With Szczur as the defensive replacement for Schwarber some days and spot starter in CF. An OF corps of Schwarber, Almora, Heyward, Soler, and Szczur in 2017……. I’ll take that any day.