State to gain four seats; region could hold steady

AUSTIN - Texas will gain four congressional seats when statehouses across the country redraw the boundaries of their political districts next year, according to 2010 Census figures released Tuesday.

It's good news for the Lone Star State, which will gain the most congressional districts in the nation thanks to an influx of 4.3 million people since 2000, a 20.6 percent increase.

But for the Panhandle and the South Plains, it will be a different story.

The state will have 36 congressional districts, up from 32. Each district will represent 702,000 people, slightly below the U.S. average of almost 711,000, according to census data. State Senate districts will represent 816,000 people and Texas House districts 168,500, said- Delwin Jones, R-Lubbock, the departing chairman of the House Redistricting Committee.

Based on Tuesday's population figures, the detailed census data expected in two months is likely to show the region will lose one and possibly two House districts and perhaps a congressional district as well, Jones said.

"I predict that one of our congressional districts could go east of I-35 and possibly to the (Rio Grande) Valley," Jones added.

"I think we're going to hurt in political representation because we just don't have the population numbers."

A county-by-county map of Texas, which Jones' panel received in the spring, shows that at best, the Panhandle/South Plains region could have a combined population of no more than 850,000 when the detailed figures for the 2010 population count are released in February and March.

"When you put those numbers in place you know that West Texas is going to be spread thinner because many of our rural counties have lost population," said Jones, a 30-year veteran of the state Legislature who was defeated in this year's Republican primary.

Nonetheless, Kel Seliger, R-Amarillo, chairman of the Senate Select Committee on Redistricting, said he is cautiously optimistic about West Texas' redistricting future.

Seliger said the Panhandle/South Plains region could preserve its two congressional districts, and this is how:

"We are gaining four congressional districts, so this means that each district will not represent that many more people like our state Senate districts will," Seliger explained.

U.S. House District 13, represented by Mac Thornberry, R-Clarendon, and District 19, represented by Randy Neugebauer, R-Lubbock, will represent more counties, but the bulk of their respective populations is expected to be the Panhandle for Thornberry's district and the South Plains for Neugebauer's, Seliger predicted.

The lawmaker said he doesn't know how the Texas House districts in the region could fare because the House will redraw its own district maps.

Rep. John Smithee, R-Amarillo, who like Jones is a veteran of three redistricting fights, said the region is likely to lose a rural House district and if it avoids losing a second rural district, the latter would likely include more counties. District 85, which will be represented by Rep.-elect Jim Landtroop, R-Plainview, already consists of 16 counties, and District 88, represented by Rep. Warren Chisum, R-Pampa, currently represents 19, the most of any Texas House district.

"It is very difficult to carve West Texas in the statehouse," Smithee said.

"We have a number of counties like Potter, Randall, Lubbock, Ector, Midland, Tom Green and Taylor, with populations of more than 100,000 and each anchors a House district. ... Lubbock has enough for almost two. So, my hope is that we can keep most of our districts, even if some have to be more spread out."

Smithee said he is also hopeful that because for the first time in history his party will have a super majority of 101-49 in the House, the Legislature can avoid the bloody partisan fights that have characterized previous redistricting sessions.

"I am sure there'll be some intramural fights among Republicans but it cuts down on the controversies," he said.

"The Republican map is going to prevail. That is the reality of politics. But the ultimate goal is to have a map that is as fair as possible for Republicans, for Democrats and for all Texas voters and for all Texas communities."

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Impossible to speculate at this point. It's a "devil's in the details" issue, and the relevant details won't be released by the Census Bureau until Feb-March. That's when we find out the details on growth within the state. All that was released yesterday was growth state-to-state.

Based on census estimates released earlier, however, one pattern is clear: the minority population growth is explosive, and the Anglo population growth is flat. So flat, in fact, that if the entire state's population growth mirrored Anglo growth, Texas would be getting ZERO new Congressional seats. Following logic of math, the minority growth is therefore responsible for all of Texas' gain in Congressional seats. That assumes that the estimates were accurate, and we'll all find out together in February.

So - for the Panhandle/South Plains region, what does that mean? It might mean that if you can show higher population growth than the state average, and that a significant percentage of the resulting population is minority, then you might be in the ballpark for additional representation or at the very least - maintain the status-quo. You will undoubtedly be competing with massive minority (and general) population growth in Rio Grande Valley (Hispanic), DFW (Hispanic and African-American), and Houston (Hispanic and African-American, including, I theorize, massive African-American migration from Louisiana after Katrina. Louisiana only showed some modicum percent growth (WAY out of whack for a Southern state).

That's just the voting rights issues and the math problem, before even entering into the political calculations.

Redistricting has soured the Democratic electorate and there is not much that can be done about it with Republicans in charge in Austin. These master manipulators gerrymander the districts to ease Republicans into office. If there were 42 percent Hispanic population, 38 percent white population and twenty percent black population; then the representation should be apportioned in that ratio. It's not. The courts have dropped the ball when it comes to redistricting. Texas should be getting four more Democratic legislators in Washington, but they won't. The Republican backed gerrymandering board will see to that. Career politicians would have less chance to continue their careers. We need term limits as well. That won't happen. Welcome to Texas!

RADSENIOR has not factored in the DISTRIBUTION of those 42% Hispanics or 20% African-Americans. It makes a difference if minority populations are concentrated or evenly dispersed throughout a population.

Just taking the percentages Radsenior has given, along with the fact that Texas will get 36 Congressional seats, that would mean about 15 Hispanic seats and 7 African-American seats. I will guarantee you that even the most ardent minority-advocate district drawer would not be able to create a redistricting plan with 15 Hispanic districts or 7 African-American districts.