The Run Down
Dayton Moore gets ripped more than the current administration does for health care. The Yuniesky Betancourt trade, the Mike Jacobs trade and several signings are worthy of scorn. Well, here is some news for people, amidst all these major league signings and trades, Moore has corralled a tremendous amount of “high upside” prospects. Truly. Some experts have the 2010 Royals farm system ranked ninth overall (Keith Law) and Baseball America has yet to weigh in for the 2010 season (their book comes out in late February). Much of this talent though is at the lower levels and still needs to be developed. There are several prospects that I am not mentioning because they either just finished the 2009 season at rookie ball (John Lamb, Tyler Sample, and Tim Melville) or that they didn’t get a chance to play due to when they signed (Aaron Crow (yes, the 2008 #1 draft pick of Washington whom they failed to sign) and Noel Arguelles, a left-handed Cuban defect who has great upside as a pitcher). 2010 will be a make or break year for a couple of top prospects (Moustakas and Hosmer), more the latter than the former. Finally, Kansas City has some reason to be excited.

Players of Interest for 2010Hitters#9 Kila Ka’aihue | 1B | AAA | 25 | .252/.392/.433 | 441 AB | 45 XBH | 17 HR | .181 ISO | 85:102 K:BB | .277 BABIP | 39.6 GB% | 18.7 LD% | 41.5 FB%
Kila Ka’aihue jacked the ball everywhere in 2008 with 27 homers at Double-A and 11 homers at Triple-A. 2009 wasn’t quite as friendly (17 homers), nor was his production anywhere near his 2008 “breakout season.” There has been speculation around his frustration with management’s decision to trade for Mike Jacobs and not let him tryout in Spring Training. A change of scenery may actually be a good thing for his future. Here is his Scouting the Unknown article I wrote about him last July. This link also has a pronunciation key. For those of you too lazy to click the link: pronounced – KEY-luh Kuh-eye-HOO-a. Grey went over Ka’aihue’s fantasy prospects in the 2009 preseason.

Hindered by a lower than normal BABIP (.277), Ka’aihue slumped through the second half of the season. His batting eye is beyond stellar (two straight years with more than 100 walks) and considering that minor league players usually play a month less than their major league counterparts, having 100 walks is pretty darn impressive. Additionally, in 555 Triple-A at-bats (across two years), he’s hit for a .211 ISO. The power is legit. If given the chance at full playing time, the Royals could have a 25 homer, .400 OBP first baseman/DH. Instead, Mr. Moobs will play first, with Mr. Slacker (Jose Guillen) DH’ing. Don’t be surprised to see Ka’aihue traded sooner rather than later. If Jose Guillen decides to get hurt, Ka’aihue should be the first man called up.

#15 David Lough | CF | A+/AA | 23 | .325/.370/.496 | 458 AB | 46 XBH | 14 HR | .171 ISO | 64:24 K:BB | 19/9 SB/CS | .367 BABIP | 48.8 GB% | 16.8 LD% | 34..3 FB%
This is a fringe prospect with the possibility of slightly overachieving. Not amazing at any one skill, Lough plays solid defense with a marginal arm, above average base running and stealing skills that are consistently improving. He doesn’t have a great feel of the strike zone and consequently is dependent upon a high average of any sort of success. With such a high BABIP (.367), this could hamper any sort of development at the higher levels. Since he wasn’t solely a baseball player at college, his age isn’t the normal indicator of minor league level in regards to his actual ability. 2010 will be the true test. His upside is 15 to 18 homers with 15 to 20 steals. A mid-summer call-up in 2011 is likely his ETA.

Honorable Mentions
In these two subsections, you will find the Royals top two hitting prospects (Moustakas and Hosmer) and their top pitching prospect (Montgomery). This is because they are all still so young and low in the minor league ladder.

Hitters#1 Mike Moustakas | 3B | A+ | 20 | .250/.297/.421 | 492 AB | 50 XBH | 16 HR | .171 ISO | 90:32 K:BB | 10/6 SB/CS | .280 BABIP | 42.3 GB% | 13 LD% | 44.4 FB%
After arriving with 22 homers in his first year, his sophomore slump came. Sickels, of Minor League Ball, points out his Home/Road splits were the main culprit to his stats (Home: .208/.269/.381 Road: .292/.331/.473), noting that the Royals High-A home field is difficult to play in if you’re a hitter. Another concern a few scouts have noted is how his body is transforming into a doppelganger of Butler. The added weight hasn’t deterred the Royals yet. From a fantasy perspective, he’ll have to hit well next year to stay on the fast track to the majors. This doesn’t necessarily mean 30 homers with a .350/.425/.550 slash line. However, we will want to see an improvement upon his nearly 3:1 K:BB ratio. Furthermore, it would be reassuring to see a higher line drive rate. This would show that he is making more consistent hard contact. I am still on his bandwagon, but he needs to continue to move forward.

#2 Eric Hosmer | 1B | A/A+ | 19 | .241/.334/.361 | 337 AB | 29 XBH | 6 HR | .120 ISO | 90:53 K:BB | .296 BABIP | 62.5 GB% | 12.4 LD% | 24.8 FB%
Hosmer struggled hardcore at High-A. Receiving Lasik surgery this past year, Hosmer, like other baseball players, claimed he wasn’t seeing the ball well and is hoping this surgery will improve his problem. Extremely talented and skilled, Hosmer was drafted straight out of high school with the third overall pick as scouts were drooling over his polished swing and poised hitting approach, not to mention a potential power hitting lefty. Playing in the pitching heavy Midwest League (Single-A) for most of the year, Hosmer held his own, but he’ll have to show that 2009 was more fluke than the norm.

Pitchers#4 Mike Montgomery | LHP | A/A+ | 19 | 8 K/9 | 2.9 BB/9 | 110 IP | 2.21 ERA | 2.84 FIP | 1.06 WHIP | .1 HR/9 | 6.5 H/9 | .260 BABIP | 49.7 GB% | 12.3 LD% | 31 FB%
His walk rate was 3.7 BB/9 at Single-A and was only 2.1 BB/9 at High-A, and this was only some of his improvements. Pitching 58 innings at Single-A and 52 innings at High-A, Montgomery’s stock shot up the board. His curveball is considered his best pitch, but scouts still think his 89 to 93 mph fastball has more potential to develop velocity and movement. He also throws an average changeup and the rare palmball. He is already on the fast track, don’t be surprised if Montgomery receives a September call-up if his 2010 season goes well. He’ll probably be getting a Scouting the Unknown article sometime in the upcoming summer.

As a Twins fan, he’s is the one player I would worry about in the Royals farm system with Mauer, Morneau, Span, and Kubel all being left handed hitters, especially Kubel who can’t touch lefties.

#16 Danny Duffy | LHP | A+ | 20 | 8.9 K/9 | 2.9 BB/9 | 126 2/3 IP | 2.98 ERA | 3.08 FIP | 1.18 WHIP | .4 HR/9 | 7.7 H/9 | .294 BABIP | 42.2 GB% | 12.1 LD% | 37.4 FB%
Projecting as a number three pitcher in the rotation, Duffy has pitched well to date. The strikeout rates and control are worthy of more than I can give him at the moment. Playing above his age group and pitching well has improved his stock. With an 88 to 92 mph fastball that grades above-average, a deceptive changeup and a curve that’s his out-pitch, Duffy could see major league action, at the soonest, in 2011.

@anon: I’d probably deny it due to the fact that you are swapping nearly identical players in Morales and McCann and Robot Jones and Ianetta haven’t played a full season in the majors with success so far.

@GopherDay: I had to decide an order and figured letting Baseball America do that for me was a good idea. This way I was removing my subjectivity and entering theirs. I didn’t want to be on the hook for any trollers. Furthermore, the better farm systems would than get mentioned as the season nears, or as the schedule will pan out, during the first month of the season. Thus, the rankings are based on 2009’s rankings.

In the next week or so, Baseball America is releasing their 2010 book and I should have it by the end of February.

@Real Tom: Alex Gordon is still a tweener. If he has a good year in 2010, then we can start to get excited. At age 26, and having two decent years is helpful, albeit not for a top prospect, he is riding the same wagon that Delmon Young is driving. The talent is the there, the skills are there, but the production has yet to materialize. Think of Jason Kubel though. He didn’t breakout until last year. Granted, Kubel was trending in the right direction (helps when you hit behind Mauer and Morneau). Gordon was trending in the right direction too (’07: 247/.314/.411 in 534 AB; ’08:.260/.351/432 in 493 AB but with 25 more walks and 17 less strikeouts. He also had 36 doubles in 07 and 35 doubles in 08)

Kubel is 28 this year, Gordon just turned 26 on February 10th. With the recent trade with Chicago, Fields and Teahan now block Gordon more than ever. Truthfully, he’ll need every opportunity he can get this year to prove himself. However, just in the short time I was finding those numbers, Gordon may be this years Adam Lind.

Call me crazy, but Gordon may have tons of value this year if he can stay healthy.

Realize this has nothing to do with the Royals, but I am in a dynasty keep everyone keeper league and was wondering what you thought of this deal.

I would be sending Carlos Lee for Hunter Pence and Jose Lopez. How do you feel about this deal, he said I could have Pence or Reimold but I can’t decide who I like more. I am not overly excited about Lopez but my second base position consists of Ian Desmond and Felipe Lopez, neither of whom are guaranteed starters. Lemme know what you think thanks

@Chris: I was reading an article (can’t remember who wrote it, might be John Sickels) that was mentioning that Lee’s body and physical skill set doesn’t age gracefully. With that said, Reimold and Pence are the same age and have the same skill sets. I would side with Pence as he has played in the majors longer. Although I think Reimold has more power and better plate discipline. I would do this trade, but you may want to have Grey weigh in on this trade too. Also, Jose Lopez more than suffice, especially with who you currently have. I would definite accept this trade if you are dealing Lee and receiving Pence and Lopez. It almost seems like you league mate is buying Lee from three years ago. I would do this if I was you.

so i have the 12th pick in my main league that i play in. what do you think if i grab 2 1st basemen with my first 2 picks. i would only do this if there was some combo of, teixeira:fielder:cabrara:howard. this is also assuming that longoria, kemp, braun and the other top teir offensive players are gone.
so you think this stratgey could work or should i take the best 1st base i can and move on?

The Run Down
Dayton Moore gets ripped more than the current administration does for health care. The Yuniesky Betancourt trade, the Mike Jacobs trade and several signings are worthy of scorn. Well, here is some news for people, amidst all these major league signings and trades, Moore has corralled a tremendous amount of “high upside” prospects. Truly. Some experts have the 2010 Royals farm system ranked ninth overall (Keith Law) and Baseball America has yet to weigh in for the 2010 season (their book comes out in late February). Much of this talent though is at the lower levels and still needs to be developed. There are several prospects that I am not mentioning because they either just finished the 2009 season at rookie ball (John Lamb, Tyler Sample, and Tim Melville) or that they didn’t get a chance to play due to when they signed (Aaron Crow (yes, the 2008 #1 draft pick of Washington whom they failed to sign) and Noel Arguelles, a left-handed Cuban defect who has great upside as a pitcher). 2010 will be a make or break year for a couple of top prospects (Moustakas and Hosmer), more the latter than the former. Finally, Kansas City has some reason to be excited.

Players of Interest for 2010
Hitters
#9 Kila Ka’aihue | 1B | AAA | 25 | .252/.392/.433 | 441 AB | 45 XBH | 17 HR | .181 ISO | 85:102 K:BB | .277 BABIP | 39.6 GB% | 18.7 LD% | 41.5 FB%
Kila Ka’aihue jacked the ball everywhere in 2008 with 27 homers at Double-A and 11 homers at Triple-A. 2009 wasn’t quite as friendly (17 homers), nor was his production anywhere near his 2008 “breakout season.” There has been speculation around his frustration with management’s decision to trade for Mike Jacobs and not let him tryout in Spring Training. A change of scenery may actually be a good thing for his future. Here is his Scouting the Unknown article I wrote about him last July. This link also has a pronunciation key. For those of you too lazy to click the link: pronounced – KEY-luh Kuh-eye-HOO-a. Grey went over Ka’aihue’s fantasy prospects in the 2009 preseason.

Hindered by a lower than normal BABIP (.277), Ka’aihue slumped through the second half of the season. His batting eye is beyond stellar (two straight years with more than 100 walks) and considering that minor league players usually play a month less than their major league counterparts, having 100 walks is pretty darn impressive. Additionally, in 555 Triple-A at-bats (across two years), he’s hit for a .211 ISO. The power is legit. If given the chance at full playing time, the Royals could have a 25 homer, .400 OBP first baseman/DH. Instead, Mr. Moobs will play first, with Mr. Slacker (Jose Guillen) DH’ing. Don’t be surprised to see Ka’aihue traded sooner rather than later. If Jose Guillen decides to get hurt, Ka’aihue should be the first man called up.

#15 David Lough | CF | A+/AA | 23 | .325/.370/.496 | 458 AB | 46 XBH | 14 HR | .171 ISO | 64:24 K:BB | 19/9 SB/CS | .367 BABIP | 48.8 GB% | 16.8 LD% | 34..3 FB%
This is a fringe prospect with the possibility of slightly overachieving. Not amazing at any one skill, Lough plays solid defense with a marginal arm, above average base running and stealing skills that are consistently improving. He doesn’t have a great feel of the strike zone and consequently is dependent upon a high average of any sort of success. With such a high BABIP (.367), this could hamper any sort of development at the higher levels. Since he wasn’t solely a baseball player at college, his age isn’t the normal indicator of minor league level in regards to his actual ability. 2010 will be the true test. His upside is 15 to 18 homers with 15 to 20 steals. A mid-summer call-up in 2011 is likely his ETA.

Honorable Mentions
In these two subsections, you will find the Royals top two hitting prospects (Moustakas and Hosmer) and their top pitching prospect (Montgomery). This is because they are all still so young and low in the minor league ladder.

Hitters
#1 Mike Moustakas | 3B | A+ | 20 | .250/.297/.421 | 492 AB | 50 XBH | 16 HR | .171 ISO | 90:32 K:BB | 10/6 SB/CS | .280 BABIP | 42.3 GB% | 13 LD% | 44.4 FB%
After arriving with 22 homers in his first year, his sophomore slump came. Sickels, of Minor League Ball, points out his Home/Road splits were the main culprit to his stats (Home: .208/.269/.381 Road: .292/.331/.473), noting that the Royals High-A home field is difficult to play in if you’re a hitter. Another concern a few scouts have noted is how his body is transforming into a doppelganger of Butler. The added weight hasn’t deterred the Royals yet. From a fantasy perspective, he’ll have to hit well next year to stay on the fast track to the majors. This doesn’t necessarily mean 30 homers with a .350/.425/.550 slash line. However, we will want to see an improvement upon his nearly 3:1 K:BB ratio. Furthermore, it would be reassuring to see a higher line drive rate. This would show that he is making more consistent hard contact. I am still on his bandwagon, but he needs to continue to move forward.

#2 Eric Hosmer | 1B | A/A+ | 19 | .241/.334/.361 | 337 AB | 29 XBH | 6 HR | .120 ISO | 90:53 K:BB | .296 BABIP | 62.5 GB% | 12.4 LD% | 24.8 FB%
Hosmer struggled hardcore at High-A. Receiving Lasik surgery this past year, Hosmer, like other baseball players, claimed he wasn’t seeing the ball well and is hoping this surgery will improve his problem. Extremely talented and skilled, Hosmer was drafted straight out of high school with the third overall pick as scouts were drooling over his polished swing and poised hitting approach, not to mention a potential power hitting lefty. Playing in the pitching heavy Midwest League (Single-A) for most of the year, Hosmer held his own, but he’ll have to show that 2009 was more fluke than the norm.

Pitchers
#4 Mike Montgomery | LHP | A/A+ | 19 | 8 K/9 | 2.9 BB/9 | 110 IP | 2.21 ERA | 2.84 FIP | 1.06 WHIP | .1 HR/9 | 6.5 H/9 | .260 BABIP | 49.7 GB% | 12.3 LD% | 31 FB%
His walk rate was 3.7 BB/9 at Single-A and was only 2.1 BB/9 at High-A, and this was only some of his improvements. Pitching 58 innings at Single-A and 52 innings at High-A, Montgomery’s stock shot up the board. His curveball is considered his best pitch, but scouts still think his 89 to 93 mph fastball has more potential to develop velocity and movement. He also throws an average changeup and the rare palmball. He is already on the fast track, don’t be surprised if Montgomery receives a September call-up if his 2010 season goes well. He’ll probably be getting a Scouting the Unknown article sometime in the upcoming summer.

As a Twins fan, he’s is the one player I would worry about in the Royals farm system with Mauer, Morneau, Span, and Kubel all being left handed hitters, especially Kubel who can’t touch lefties.

#16 Danny Duffy | LHP | A+ | 20 | 8.9 K/9 | 2.9 BB/9 | 126 2/3 IP | 2.98 ERA | 3.08 FIP | 1.18 WHIP | .4 HR/9 | 7.7 H/9 | .294 BABIP | 42.2 GB% | 12.1 LD% | 37.4 FB%
Projecting as a number three pitcher in the rotation, Duffy has pitched well to date. The strikeout rates and control are worthy of more than I can give him at the moment. Playing above his age group and pitching well has improved his stock. With an 88 to 92 mph fastball that grades above-average, a deceptive changeup and a curve that’s his out-pitch, Duffy could see major league action, at the soonest, in 2011.

#16 Danny Duffy | LHP | A+ | 20 | 8.9 K/9 | 2.9 BB/9 | 126 2/3 IP | 2.98 ERA | 3.08 FIP | 1.18 WHIP | .4 HR/9 | 7.7 H/9 | .294 BABIP | 42.2 GB% | 12.1 LD% | 37.4 FB%
Projecting as a number three pitcher in the rotation, Duffy has pitched well to date. The strikeout rates and control are worthy of more than I can give him at the moment. Playing above his age group and pitching well has improved his stock. With an 88 to 92 mph fastball that grades above-average, a deceptive changeup and a curve that’s his out-pitch, Duffy could see major league action, at the soonest, in 2011.

Maybe he just needs some time to himself and will return with a vengeance. Or maybe he’ll just be another minor league player marked in the footnotes of baseball. Hopefully it’s the former and not the latter. Good luck to Mr. Duffy in whatever he plans on doing, but it’s a shame that the Royals are losing one of their young stud arms.