Here's a list of what the current accumulated predictions are, with those states that would require a change in less than 5% (40) of the current 804 predictions to alter the cumulative wisdom. Of the 9 states that can have their prediction most easily changed, 4 changes are pro-D and 5 are pro-R. Only 2 of those changes would affect the line graphs, those of FL and MI, and both are pro-D. No easy changes would affect the EV totals.

I noticed MI just went from lean-D to tossup, and CO went to D>50%. I'm curious as how you delegate each state (R>40, or D>50) based on predictions. Is it a certain number? Could you elaborate on that?

To answer auburntiger's question:I can't swear this is how Dave is doing it, but it's the system I'm using, and it seems to match the automatically generated results.

1. Total the number of predictions for R, D, and I for each state. The one with the most predictions gets the state, with a tie going to what won prior to the new or changed prediction.2. Now to determine where the predicted margin of victory is, total the number of prediction for the first and second place finishers in each state and divide by half to get the target number for that state.3. If the number of Strong predictions for that party is greater than the target number, the overall prediction is Strong. If the overall prediction is not Strong then if the number of Strong ad Lean predictions is greater than the target number, the overall prediction is Lean, otherwise it is Tossup.4. For the percentage, it is the highest percentage for which the number of predictions for that party at that percentage or higher is greater than the target number.

Logged

Quote from: Ignatius of Antioch

He that possesses the word of Jesus, is truly able to bear his very silence. — Epistle to the Ephesians 3:21a

We have 9 new predictions since Wednesday (3 days ago). With a total of 843 predictions, the 5% threshold for an easy change if no one predicts an independent has increased by 1 to 42.

I've decided to indicate the changes that affect the line graph with yellow highlighting instead of bold text, as with the constant width font I'm using, bold type isn't that different from roman type.

We have 4 new predictions since yesterday. With a total of 847 predictions, the 5% threshold for an easy change if no one predicts an independent remains at 42.

Here are the easy changes. Florida flipped from R Tossup to R Lean, but a change in only prediction would be enough to make it flip back. After a 1 day absence, the change from in Pennsylvania from D Tossup to D Lean is back on the list.

We have 1 new prediction since yesterday. With a total of 848 predictions, the 5% threshold for an easy change if no one predicts an independent remains at 42.

Here are the easy changes. West Virginia has shifted from R Lean to R Strong. The pattern of the changes leads me to believe that most activity is by people who had been predicting Clinton would be the nominee and are updating their maps to reflect Obama as the nominee.

No new predictors since yesterday, just people changing their existing predictions. With a total of 859 predictions, the 5% threshold for an easy change if no one predicts an independent remains at 42.

I have a question. How many changes would it take until NC moves to lean McCain.

At the moment, it would take 59 changed predictions to shift NC from R Strong to R Lean. I keep an eye out for States like NC that have a 5 to10% margin to see if they need adding to the list, but I don't bother keeping track of the exact margin each day due to time. The full list of those waiting in the wings right now is:

I have a question. How many changes would it take until NC moves to lean McCain.

At the moment, it would take 59 changed predictions to shift NC from R Strong to R Lean. I keep an eye out for States like NC that have a 5 to10% margin to see if they need adding to the list, but I don't bother keeping track of the exact margin each day due to time. The full list of those waiting in the wings right now is: