TRANSIT: Gas prices not boosting bus, train ridership

Record high gas prices have not caused North County drivers to park the family sedan and hop on a local bus or train, at least not yet.

Looking over ridership numbers from Oct. 4 through Thursday ---- roughly the period that gas prices were near a peak of about $4.70 per gallon ---- Ryan Bailey, chief financial officer for the North County Transit District, said the district's buses and trains showed a 4.9 percent ridership increase, compared to the same week in 2011.

But, the financial officer said, other changes such as an increase in the number of bus miles being driven this year compared to last year, can account for much of that increase.

"We just don't have sufficient evidence yet to conclude that the higher gas prices have caused a significant increase in ridership," Bailey said. "I think it's probably too early to tell. Maybe people just haven't shifted yet. If prices stay at this level, we are going to see some kind of a bump. I'd be shocked if we didn't."

That makes sense to Jessica Whitaker of Escondido. She said she has been riding trains and buses for years, and did not notice an immediate spike in ridership when gas prices headed toward the $5 mark.

"I know there has been a lot more riders this year in general because gas prices have been going up and down all year long, really," she said. "But now (gas prices are) just extreme."

It's not as if local transit numbers did not move when gas got more expensive, but Bailey said a careful analysis shows there are just too many factors involved to be able to spot a trend by looking at only one week of data.

Bailey said Breeze bus ridership was up 4.4 percent from Oct. 4 through Thursday when compared to the same period last year. But road miles driven by Breeze buses were also up ---- by 6.6 percent ---- for that same one-week, year-over-year period.

This is because, Bailey explained, the transit district added about 1,000 miles of bus service in 2012. So this year, buses are driving more miles than they were last year, making it difficult to peg ridership increases to rising gas prices alone.

And, Bailey explained, local bus routes are designed to feed into the Sprinter light rail line that runs between Oceanside and Escondido. So an increase in Breeze bus ridership driven by more service on local roads can also drive Sprinter ridership levels higher.

"Those two services are very much together as we try to make the connections more convenient for our riders," Bailey said.

Coaster ridership ---- which spiked dramatically in 2008 when gas prices first topped $4 per gallon ---- showed a slower growth rate for the current price spike.

The commuter rail service that runs between Oceanside and San Diego showed a 5.2 percent year-over-year increase, compared to a 7.1 percent increase for the first eight months of 2012 when compared to the same eight months in 2011.