Quick Hit Analysis of Latest Transactions.

Happy New Year everybody. Below is my short thoughts (Cory is reading this and saying all of your thoughts are short Siano) on moves made in MLB since I last did a post on 12/10.

-Matt Holliday signs with Cardinals: Value doesn’t change in a mixed his ADP is 26 and he’s already a top 10 OF. He will cost $$$$$ in auction leagues.

-Jason Bay signs with Mets: Boston was his best bet to keep a very high fantasy value but people seem convinced he will succeed at Citi where Wright could not. I like him don’t love him. I stayed away in a mock draft.

-Kelvim Escobar signs with Mets: Frustrating is the best word I can come up with. $1 in an NL only and eye on him in a mixed for POD and maybe just maybe he graduates. Crazier things have happened.

-Marlon Byrd signs with Cubs: Loved Byrd last year in AL only and think he has NL only value as long is it’s in the $4-$6 range. If drafted in a mixed it has to be late and at best your #4. One of these in between sleepers now that he got a 3 yr deal.

-Javier Vazquez traded to Yankees for Melky Cabrera and
prospects Mike Dunn and Arodys Vizcaino: Vazquez’s value gets killed by his past transgressions in NY and the move back to AL East, but you cannot ignore the K potential. As long as you are not paying for the uniform and 09 stats I like him. Melky = YPNM.

-Nick Johnson signs with Yankees: AL only for a buck or two with Monday Thursday value in mixed. Could graduate to CI or UT if healthy and poking the porch.

-Roy Halladay traded to Phillies along with Phillippe
Aumont, JC Ramirez and Tyson Gillies., Cliff Lee to Mariners, Kyle Drabek,
Michael Taylor and Travis D’Arnaud to Blue Jays: Hallday value is the same as is Cliff Lee to me. they are too good. Drabek is a must in AL only keepers. other players TBD or non factors for now. Brett Wallace isn’t mentioned here but he should be on AL only radar in case Gaston loses patience with former 411 darling Eddy Encarnacion.

-John Lackey signs with Red Sox: I’m avoiding Lackey even though he has value. Injuries and wrong division. This could be like Beckett’s first year in Boston.(5.01 ERA only 158 Ks)

-Mike Cameron signs with Red Sox: Power and speed combo will get him drafted in AL only leagues and most if not all mixed but very late. Worth a flier if price is right.

-Adrian Beltre signs with Red Sox: Love this move for his value. Becomes an instant value because the uniform won’t creep him up as much as the stadium should.

-Mark DeRosa signs with Giants: 3B only in most leagues so I’m luke warm in a mixed.

-Juan Uribe re-signs with Giants: 12 homers in 2nd half made him a hero to some. YPNM.

-Hideki Matsui to Angels: Maybe my best value pick in AL Tout 09′. Problem now is DH only when in 09′ I could move him to OF so sayonara Hideki what we had was special.

-Fernando Rodney signs with Angels: My out of LF prediction is that at some point Rodney closes in LAA and it’s due to Fuentes performance not injury. In an AL only if you invest in Fuentes you are almost forced to get Rodney. I’m staying away from Fuentes and will cash in on Rodney if possible.

-Milton Bradley to Seattle for Carlos Silva: YPNM YPNM

-Mike Gonzalez to Orioles: Must in an AL only but wrong division. I stay away. #3 in a mixed I can live with.

-Brandon Lyon to Astros: Must in an NL only and great flier in a mixed if job isn’t decided yet. Very similar to situation he was in in Detroit in 09′. I play that game with my 3rd closer in a mixed by hoping I get the right one. Would rather have Billy Wagner.

-Matt Capps signs with Nats: I’m on the fence. Does he bounce back or is he done? Only a one year deal so if he does well but Nats are out of it they could flip him and make Bruney the closer. No guarantee Capps closes in new uni but I still like him as a #3 in a mixed.

-Jason Marquis to Nats: ADP is 378. Good arm for an NL only and late filler for SP in a mixed. Could be on the shuttle between POD and graduate.

-Ivan Rodriguez signs with Nats: Only has value if Flores gets hurt and you are desperate.

-Kelly Johnson to D-Backs: Big sleeper pick. If he can show the glove you can feel the love. Should be a low risk bargain.

-Bob Howry signs with D-Backs: next.

-Garrett Atkins to Orioles: I’m willing to gamble he can get back to 20-85-85 baseline with sleeper year a decent possibility. I’m usually a fan in change of scenery. He fits to me for 2009.

-Juan Pierre to White Sox: He’ll get drafted b/c of steals and may fill in nicely for a stretch like he did for Manny, but I’d rather have Podsednik.

-Brandon Morrow to Blue Jays for Brandon League: Great news for Aardsma. Both guys have the stuff but they don’t have the health. This is a big TBD worth keeping an eye on for Morrow.

-Troy Glaus signs with Braves: With Hinske in two it’s a nice platoon that doesn’t help fantasy.

-LaTroy Hawkins to Brewers: Worth a buck in NL only in case Hoffman goes down I mean he’s 60 years old! I know Coffee is closer but Coffey may not be. I’ll be here all week tip your bartender and arrive alive.

-Miguel Olivo signs with Rockies: backup city. He’ll get hot for a week or two.

-Coco Crisp to A’s: I’d take the chance you can get 07 or 08 value at an 09 price.

repost from yesterday thought it would get more responses if I did repost…

This question is for the 411 crew and any other listeners/posters that want to chime in. Got the Forecaster yesterday and am intrigued by the Mayberry Method. It seems to do exactly what Mr. Shandler wants it to do, but does it simplify things too much for Auctions in roto leagues? there seem to be too much missing to be able to put together a “team” of solid stats.

If used I can see someone easily winning Homeruns and RBIs but coming in last in Runs and SB. Pitchers it seems a little more usable but then you are working 2 different “types” of systems during the same draft. Not something that appeals to me.

Now where I can see this being very,very useful is perhaps in a H2H or points snake draft league where a tiering method is your primarily draft tool.

My .02, am I on track, missing something – please disagree with me so I can stop looking at this system from 1 side…

If you can’t pull off a trade, I’d go with McCann, Roberts, Greinke, Johan. I don’t trust Hill yet and ideally like to get speed out of my 2B. Not sold on Ethier as a legit 30 HR guy and see Verlander as a tad below Greinke and Johan.

Hi Nate, I haven’t read up on the Mayberry Method yet in great detail so I can’t really give you a fair evaluation of it. Here’s a good discussion thread about it though on Mastersball.com, which might provide you with some insight:

1. Ron ran a great piece last year (which I referred to in a previous post) on the limitations of using projections, and the MM appears to be an attempt to address that problem. Is it more important to know whether Albert Pujols will hit 38 or 42 homers, or simply that he’ll be one of the top five HR hitters in the game this year?

2. Ron has a pretty good track record of devising winning strategies and tactics, so again, while I haven’t fully read up on the MM, I’m sure it’s based on sound logic and game theory, and can give you an edge against uninformed competition. No one is perfect but Ron is a legend in this industry for good reason.

3. That said, and this is strictly my personal opinion, I don’t like following my own strategies, I like devising and following my own. That’s where some of the 411 strategies came from… this is the way we like to do it, but then again, others may not agree and that’s OK too. So if MM sounds reasonable to you and feels good, go out and do it. But even if it does, I’ll probably leverage some of the ideas and concepts in some way, but ultimately I’m going to call my own plays. That’s just me and not a knock on Ron or anyone else.

Thanks for the link cory, I am going to have to go and check it out. I agree with everything you said about Ron – if not I wouldn’t buy the Forecaster every year or even consider the discussion. It seems like it can most definitely be a useful tool, but it would take a shift in thinking/draft strategy.

I think I need a new draft strategy b/c the one that I have been using for years (a mix of your preaching with the thoughts of Lenny Melnick’s) has netted me 2nd place for the last 3 years straight in a NL only to the same guy. I am trying to convince myself to take the gamble and switch up instead of staying safe and in the money.

as i’ve stated before, leave molina and delgado alone and trade for adrian gonzalez from san diego since he is on the block and either ryan doumit from pitt or saltalamacchia from texas to catch. i also read that they may sign orlando hudson even if they don’t trade castillo. if they sign piniero and bedard and give incentive contracts to either sheets or wang they can trade pelfrey, parnell and even maine to get gonzalez and doumit. then they have a very good team.

hopefully the mets see that no one is untouchable in san diego and try to get adrian gonzalez and chris young. i don’t think the padres will get rid of correia for another 2 years when he is due some big money. they are MLB’s farm team along with the pirates and royals. you could probably throw cleveland in also.

Meta

The following are trademarks or service marks of Major League Baseball entities and may be used only with permission of Major League Baseball Properties, Inc. or the relevant Major League Baseball entity: Major League, Major League Baseball, MLB, the silhouetted batter logo, World Series, National League, American League, Division Series, League Championship Series, All-Star Game, and the names, nicknames, logos, uniform designs, color combinations, and slogans designating the Major League Baseball clubs and entities, and their respective mascots, events and exhibitions.