Saturday, June 07, 2014

A Triple Crown at last?

Over the past three decades, as the public has cheered for horses to
win the Belmont Stakes and complete a sweep of the Triple Crown, some
racing purists have been reluctant to lend their voices to the chorus.

Those of us who remember the last three colts to accomplish the feat –
Secretariat (1973), Seattle Slew (1977), and Affirmed (1978) – know
that they were giants in the greatest era of Thoroughbred racing in
America. It would have been almost sacrilegious to put the names of
runners such as Charismatic, Real Quiet, War Emblem, and Funny Cide on a
short list along with the sport’s immortals.

But as California Chrome tries to become the first horse since
Affirmed to sweep the Kentucky Derby, Preakness, and Belmont, the old
worries about blemishing the list of Triple Crown winners hardly seem
relevant. After 11 horses since 1979 have lost bids for the Triple Crown
in the Belmont Stakes, any horse who accomplishes the sweep will
deserve praise and respect – and a place in history.

If this happens Saturday, it couldn’t happen at a better time. The
sport has been beset with so many problems that it needs a positive
story. What better story could there be than one with a rags-to-riches
hero like the ill-bred California Chrome?

The colt has generated excitement, superlatives, and high
expectations, and it is hard for many fans to assess his Triple Crown
bid dispassionately. But handicappers should not be swayed by sentiment.
They are supposed to look at horses and races with cold-eyed
objectivity. And an objective analysis would conclude that California
Chrome is not the standout that the public thinks he is.

He's not. In fact this crop of three-year-olds may be the weakest in all of horse racing's long history in terms of speed. Chrome has still been good enough to beat all comers, but today's finale is longer by a furlong than the Derby. And in both Derby and Preakness, he was losing ground to a hard-charging second place finisher. Ominous.

...California Chrome’s edge is almost certain to shrink – or disappear – at
the longer distance of the Belmont. California Chrome was tiring at the
end of the 1 1/4-mile Derby and was hard-pressed to maintain his margin
over Ride On Curlin in the Preakness. It is hard to imagine that he
will be as good at 1 1/2 miles.

The four principal challengers Saturday all appear better suited to the distance than the favorite.

Those four are Commanding Curve (who came out of nowhere and blew up everybody's exacta picks in the Derby), Ride on Curlin (third and closing in Kentucky, second and closing in Maryland), Wicked Strong, and Tonalist.

History suggests that California Chrome will face another
disadvantage besides the Belmont’s distance. Not only is winning the
Triple Crown difficult, but merely running in all three races is tough
for modern-day horses. In the last 12 years, only a single horse has won
the Belmont after competing in both the Derby and the Preakness. During
that period, six horses ran in the Derby, skipped the Preakness, and
won the Belmont. The extra rest is clearly an important edge.

Wicked Strong has that extra rest, plus solid credentials. He was
considered California Chrome’s main rival in the Derby, but he couldn’t
overcome the outside post in the field of 19. Hung wide at the first
turn, he never got into striking position and found himself in heavy
traffic throughout the stretch run. Even so, he lost by less than six
lengths. The Belmont figures to be very different race.

I think that order of finish is as crazy as a Texas Republican convention delegate, but we'll see.

I would be happy to be wrong. But in view of the difficulty of the
Belmont’s distance, the possibility that he won’t have another easy trip
as he did in his prior races, and the relative freshness of his
challengers, California Chrome has too many obstacles to overcome. If he
does surmount them, the sport will rightly hail a worthy champion.

Truly. I cannot discount the favorite, so he'll be in my exotic mix. I'll throw on the three Beyer likes above, and try to work in General A-Rod, who'll be going off at a long price and will pop if he hits the board.