Draft Winds offers a Dolphin-centric view of the upcoming NFL draft through the analytic minds and detailed writing of Universal Draft experts Simon Clancy, Chris Kouffman and Richard Lines. Draft Winds has been a weekly regular on my blog in recent years. The Twitter accounts of the writers are @siclancy, @ckparrot and @riclines.) In today's chapter, Simon does a 5,500-word tour de force on Brock Osweiler -- Dave Hyde

So here we are, the final edition of our QB triumvirate. Chris, Richard and myself sat down and worked out what we thought Miami would do with their quarterbacks in the Draft. We know the Dolphins need a young buck, but we’re all of the opinion that any drafted passer is unlikely to start in 2012. Why? Because we truly believe that Joe Philbin sold Stephen Ross on a plan, a long term plan to build through the Draft, by following the Green Bay model and putting his faith in a coach and a system that may not win in 2012, but could turn into one of the best franchises in the NFL given time. The foundation of that might well come in this selection meeting and over the past fortnight we’ve tried to show you two passers that we think fit into what we’re talking about. We have looked long and hard at Brandon Weeden, studying every throw he’s ever made at Oklahoma State. We also isolated Texas A&M’s Ryan Tannehill, former student of current Miami offensive co-ordinator Mike Shermam. The attraction being his upside and quite simply he’s a player we tabbed when he first stepped into the line-up as a possible franchise passer down the line. We ummed and ahhed over our three picks. Nick Foles of Arizona gave us plenty to study and plenty to talk about. But in the end we passed on him, although we believe Miami is interested. Right up until the weekend we considered Wisconsin’s Russell Wilson for a myriad of reasons most notably his outstanding ability as a passer. I am of the belief that if Wilson were 6’2 and not 5’11 then he’s a top 20 pick. All three of us believe that he certainly would represent a very interesting selection at 42 and someone whose opinion we trust around passers believes that Wilson and Philbin would make a very, very smart connection. We happen to agree.

But in the end we decided that Arizona State’s Brock Osweiler was the player that we’d study as our final QB prospect. He’s a very intriguing player for a number of reasons, although as you’ll discover there are huge question marks as to whether those translate to the next level. Regardless, Miami has shown an awful lot of interest; Osweiler has been to Davie for a private workout and if Jeff Ireland operated the principles of Moneyball, he may well see this as a Billy Beane type player.

I have charted four games of his as what I believe to be a fair reflection of his talent. I watched a further two games without charting specifics and another game live, as a fan taking no notes. I also watched a game of his at the high school level and was intrigued by what I saw. But it’s important before we move into the bulk of the analysis that a few simple Osweiler facts are recognised:

• This is a QB I wouldn’t draft before the 4th round at the very earliest.

• Osweiler is, in my mind, at least three years away from starting competently at the NFL level.

• Across four games I charted only 18 NFL throws; passes that are not generated by the specifics of the offensive system that you would see NFL passers make. Disappointingly, half of those came in one game.

• Osweiler lacks competency in the following areas; mechanics, footwork, instinct when pressure comes from the middle and in changing his protections. I didn’t chart down a single throw he made that showed any real touch whatsoever, he has an alarming ability to telegraph his passes and plays in an offense that simplifies what he can see down the field by the very nature of its construction.

• In one game, against Boise State, Osweiler turned in one of the most risible performances I’ve ever seen from a Draft eligible QB.

Background: It’s important to look into a passer’s background. We made a very concerted effort to delve into the histories of both Ryan Mallett and Cam Newton last year because both passers approached the Draft process with questions marks hanging over their heads off the field. They were the two most natural passers heading into the selection process, but certainly Mallett’s history was too much a concern for some teams. We were unable to find any issues in his background beyond the norm of a college student away from home for the first time. He has been the model professional in New England and I’m sure I’m not the only one wondering why Jeff Ireland didn’t make more of an effort to deal up for a QB that he clearly liked. However, with the 2012 Draft class, it has been less of a concern. Luck, RG3 and Ryan Tannehill are all outstanding student athletes and both Brandon Weeden and Russell Wilson – who would incorporate my top 5 passers – are also terrific human beings. As indeed is Brock Osweiler.

The story of Osweiler is a fairly simple one. A boy from Montana, he was a two sport star who became Gonzaga’s earliest ever basketball commitment, and Montana’s earliest sporting commitment, agreeing to sign with the school when just a high school freshman.
"It's just three hours away from home, my family can go and watch me almost anytime they want and their program is definitely one of the top two in the western United States."
A low post player who was expected to switch to the small forward position for the Zags, Osweiler got more hype and recognition at an earlier age than Larry Krystkowiak, Jack Gillespie, Ed Kalafat and Ray Kuka, all former Treasure State basketball legends who played professional hoops. In fact one paper referred to him as perhaps the most ballyhooed combination of football-basketball talent in the history of Big Sky Country prep athletics. But it was always set to be basketball for Osweiler at the collegiate level;

“It's 100% firm. That's where I'm going. I had to sit down a lot when this (Gonzaga) offer came up and compare football with basketball. Me and my family and coaches all thought that basketball would probably be the better route."

However Osweiler was a varsity quarterback as a freshman at Flathead High, the largest high school in the state and as a sophomore, he began to display the noted aerial ability, ending up All State after throwing for 2,454 yards and 22 touchdowns. By the time he left he’d become the 11th player in Montana prep history to pass for 5,000 yards and was named the state's Gatorade High School Football Player of the Year after completing 189 of 303 passes for 2,703 yards and 29 touchdowns as a senior and rushing for 760 yards and 13 touchdowns for the Braves, who posted a 6-5 record. And so the “100% basketball commitment” began to wobble. A number of major college football teams felt they could sense a chink in his hoops armour and began chasing hard. And suddenly he de-committed from Gonzaga and gave up the basketball dream for the opportunity to play football. He says he had no inkling when he woke up on that Wednesday that his life would change during his third period class at Flathead High. But while reading about Arizona State football online during his advanced multimedia class, the 6-foot-6 quarterback suddenly had an epiphany:

"Everything finally clicked in my head and in my stomach. I knew it was the right time, right school, right decision, and I picked ASU."

He called Dennis Erickson with his decision even before making a visit to ASU, choosing the Sun Devils over offers from Stanford and Washington State and interest from Florida State, Alabama and UCLA. Penn State had started calling as well but Osweiler had chosen his final destination.

Again.

Erickson was apparently a huge factor in his decision and he joined a post-Rudy Carpenter quarterback mix at ASU that included Danny Sullivan, Samson Szakacsy, Chasen Stangel and Jack Elway. Spring football observers saw the freshman – who enrolled early – do a decent job and the coaching staff threw around clichés such as “God given talent”, “not at all uncomfortable” and “it’s easy to forget he’s a true freshman”. But he was pulled from a drive by Erickson for not throwing the ball away and taking a sack – a knock which has stayed with him:

“I’ve got to get into the film room, watch it on tape and make sure it never happens again.”
By the time he left ASU, Osweiler played in 25 games, starting 15 and throwing 33 touchdowns and 15 picks. He started fully for just one season – 2011 – but made significant contributions throughout his time at ASU. However, one question remains for me about his ability; if he was the Gatorade High School Player of the Year coming into an offense that struggled with limited QB talent in front of him, why did it take him three years to win the starting job?

Arizona State Offense: Osweiler worked for the most part at ASU under offensive co-ordinator Noel Mazzone which is ironic given that Mazzone was offensive co-ordinator for Philip Rivers at NC State. In a way this was a blessing and a curse. It was a blessing because it allowed him to put up gaudy numbers in a spread/read option offense that operated under the premise that the clock was about to run out. It was no-huddle, line up, snap the ball, throw/run, no-huddle, line up, snap the ball, throw/run. It was simplistic in its scheming and so Osweiler’s were inflated because of it. However, because of the simplicity of its style, it leads to questions about how he will handle a far more complicated system at the next level. It’s a spread system using a lot of motion from one or more of the backs. Osweiler will line up in the shotgun on almost every play beyond a 4th and one. Backs will come in motion much like Ricky Williams did in the Wildcat across the formation or from the any number of variables in which backs would flank the QB. This meant that on every single pass play, Osweiler would have an option in the flat. Sometimes it would be his first read, others a check-down. Because of the number of receivers in the route on each play, teams would tend to play zone or zone man especially on the back in the flat. But it generally meant that Osweiler was throwing to spots on the field rather than challenging corners one on one. At times of course he faced one on one battles on the outside, but invariably, he would be throwing against zone. When charting the scheme, it was clear very quickly that he was throwing four types of throw with alarming regularity; either bubble screens to the back, crossing routes, slants or digs. I would say that at least 85% of his throws across the four games were one of those four routes. His money throw and the play they used more than anything was the bubble screen to a motioning tailback out in the flat. A very high percentage completion, relying on the ability of the back to make yards after the catch, often in the open field with a man to beat before getting out to the second level. In fact in one game I watched, he led an entire touchdown drive throwing only this pass. I charted the following number of those identical plays:

UCLA – 10
California – 7
Boise State – 10
USC – 16

In those four games he threw 154 total passes. 43 of those throws - more than a quarter – were those simple bubble screens. And yet a number of them were either incomplete, thrown behind the back or were what I would refer to as hospital throws; setting his back up to be knocked out by a defender. It was a litany of inaccuracy and low throws. When I looked at Osweiler’s 2011 statistics, one figure stood out for me; a 63.2% completion percentage. When I saw his pre Noel Mazzone number of 43.6% it didn’t surprise me at all. Andrew Luck’s 2011 completion percentage was 71.3%. RG3’s was 72.4%. Ryan Tannehill’s was 67.5%. Brandon Weeden’s was 72.3%. Russell Wilson’s completion percentage was 72.8%. Luck ran a pro-style offense as did Tannehill. Griffin and Weeden ran variations on the spread with a lot of downfield throwing. Wilson ran the West Coast offense. No one had easier throws to make than Osweiler. No one threw bubble screens like Osweiler. Yet his completion percentage was significantly lacking.

My point is this; Osweiler struggled to make the job his own at Arizona State. As I mentioned, he was the Gatorade High School Player of the Year in Montana. He walked into ASU with a head coach who couldn’t get enough platitudes out about his tall freshman and yet he couldn’t get close to winning the job. Then as a sophomore behind the infinitely less gifted Steven Threet he ended up winning the job because of Threet’s concussion issues which forced him to retire. And, if you look at some of the verbage from Mazzone at the time, the concern was there that Osweiler simply wasn’t getting it:

“Before those last two games (of 2010 when he replaced Threet), I wasn’t sure he was ready. Those guys that give you the, ‘Coach, I’m not a practice player, I’m a game player.’ I don’t buy that. You have to prove it to us at practice that you are a game guy. And I think as last season went on…..playing the position is a process. Here’s a kid that, when he was in high school, he’d step up on the basketball court or the football field and he was the best player out there. He just showed up and beat people. Well, on this level, it’s not the same thing.”

He was in a ‘can’t lose’ system and yet not getting it done in practice. And then in the same ‘can’t lose’ system on a Saturday, he struggled to a 63.2% completion percentage throwing 85% gimme throws. I don’t need to underline what that says about the kids’ accuracy issues.

Accuracy: But let’s underline it anyway, just for the sheer hell of it. Here’s a quarterback with some serious accuracy problems. And I would say that 95% of them stem from poor mechanics and a poor understanding of where to throw catchable balls which may actually be caused by his height. When charting his NFL throws – most of which came against zone – I could, about 80% of the time, predict when he was going to make a pro style throw simply because his mechanics were sound. When Osweiler is throwing well and accurately down the field, a number of things happen;

• He gets the snap and he stands tall and on his toes. However, it’s amazing how much of a rarity this was. In his wind-up he would often make his body smaller, partly because of his Philip Rivers style delivery.

• His hip rotation was poor and his footwork was abysmal.

• The result would be wild inaccuracy and more often than not a wobbly, knuckle ball. When he’s on the balls of his feet and standing tall in the pocket, when he doesn’t rush his delivery, then he can spin the football and is generally far more accurate.

When he reverts to type he allows his feet to get crossed over, especially when throwing down the field to his left and he takes a very long final drop step at the end of his drop and his body sinks. He rarely gets back to full height on delivery and that affects the way the ball comes out. There are times when he makes throws that I rewound four and five times to try and understand what he thought he saw and why he even attempted the pass in the first place. His accuracy is also affected by his inability to throw anything other than a fastball and when he throws downfield in anything other than a clean pocket, he simply cannot drive the ball because he doesn’t have the functional space to get the ball out on time. It then becomes an adventure. I don’t believe any of these issues are because of the style of his delivery; a very similar side arm push to that of Rivers. Mazzone, who coached both saw no reason to alter Osweiler’s arm motion and were I an NFL coach I’d probably be inclined to agree. However, if I wanted a consistently accurate NFL passer, I would think long and hard about deconstructing every other element of his throwing.

Field Vision and Decision Making: It’s very hard to judge a passer’s field vision when you’re seeing them operate in an offense that doesn’t allow for them to ad lib. Osweiler isn’t a QB that’s making three or four reads during a play. It’s interesting because what he does is the following and it happens time after time after time:

• He comes to snap the ball and he will drop back to throw. He gets antsy when his first option isn’t there because he then has to work through to his second read. He’s also itching to throw the check-down to the back. Doesn’t matter if he’s covered, he’s there. And THAT is the Osweiler crux; Brock throws EXACTLY what he sees in the playbook. He throws EXACTLY what he and Mazzone draw up on the chalkboard. He simply doesn’t have the ability to countenance what he sees on the board or in the playbook with the actual in-game circumstance. He throws to a position that he believes a player to be in regardless of who’s in the way. It’s what the playbook has told him and be damned if anything’s going to stop him.

• One of Noel Mazzone’s keys to great quarterbacking is creativity. It’s number two on his list, ironically behind accuracy and two ahead of arm strength. Osweiler is very creative with his feet when forced to drive up into the pocket and for a big man his mobility is something to behold at times. However, he is totally and utterly incapable of doing anything off script. Watch a guy like Russell Wilson. He throws to spots on the field. Told Omar Kelly that at the Senior Bowl. But he can do that for two reasons; one is that he has a natural ability to read a defense because of superior field vision and the other is because he has a passing creativity that allows for the things that don’t show up on a chalkboard or in a playbook to happen and THEN do what you’re supposed to. It may be a side-step to allow a jammed receiver to get free or a slight shoulder fake to aid half a yard of separation. But he hits breaking receivers or covered receivers in stride because he is creative beyond the pages of the playbook. Brock Osweiler isn’t capable of that in a system built for him. To me as a Miami Dolphin fan that is a monumental concern.

• Brock simply has zero eye manipulation ability. He very rarely worked through his progressions and became very easy to read, allowing defenders to continually get a jump on where he was going with the football.

As I mentioned, I would re-watch his plays over and over because I simply don’t see what he thinks he sees beyond the X’s and O’s of the classroom. This is not a passer with a good understanding of his own offense let alone an NFL defense. Aaron Rodgers, Ben Roethlisberger, Tom Brady, etc. these guys can throw a receiver open. By that I mean that in man coverage on the outside, they can place a ball on a route that only the man they’re intending to throw it to can catch it. Doesn’t matter if it’s me running the route against Deion Sanders, they can put it in a position on the back shoulder where one of only two things can happen; I can catch it or the DB comes through me to try and get the ball drawing a PI penalty. Osweiler cannot do that. He can only throw and hope. His two main receivers, Gerrel Robinson and Aaron Pflugrad made more adjustment catches than any receivers in the conference. By that I mean they came off their intended route and re-routed to the ball. He will try and drive a ball into the smallest windows, often try to hit a man who is locked in a 4 man zone and on at least three occasions saw him throw the ball directly at a defender almost as if he was throwing through him.

It’s not all bad. There were a small handful of throws where I sat up and shook my head in amazement at their placement but again, these were throws off a clean pocket with excellent mechanics from snap to delivery.

Another point that bears discussion is his basic ability to read coverages. Time and again I saw him struggle with deciphering fairly basic alignments. He made one throw in particular against USC in which he had three receivers to his left. One ran a basic go route, one ran a 15 yard in, the other a comeback. Of those three choices, two were right; the comeback and the go. The comeback was against zone, it would have been a 10 yard pitch and catch and an easy first down. The go route was an isolation route against zone because the 15 yard in – the decoy route against man coverage - left the safety in a quandary; step into the zone and support or try and run with the receiver. It was drawn up to perfection. The decoy worked perfectly and the receiver would have been 10 yards open on the go route because the safety hadn’t turned his hips because he was moving forwards to the decoy. So you take your choice; first down on an easy pitch and catch or long touchdown to wide open receiver. Unfortunately Osweiler does neither. He throws to the decoy. And he doesn’t just throw to it. He telegraphs it from snap to delivery so that if you paused the footage at the moment of release, you see all three defensive backs - the safety on the go, the underneath corner and the zone corner on the comeback - all stepping towards the decoy. In fact the zone corner on the comeback stepped in front of the ball and picked it off.

Could Joe Philbin turn these few and far between adventures into something resembling a starting QB? I really don’t know.

Pressure and Instincts: Generally Osweiler handles pressure very well, especially for a man of his size. I saw a report recently from another local internet site who described him as being like the former Seattle bust Dan McGwire. But nothing could be further from the truth. They may share the same characteristics physically when it comes to height but that’s where the comparisons end. McGwire was a statue in the pocket, but the Arizona State passer is mobile, foot savvy when necessary and has the ability not only to throw on the run – with mixed results accuracy wise – but also to extend the play or take off running. He’s especially adept at doing this when pressure comes off the perimeter. Unfortunately what he doesn’t do is see extra or unusual pressure coming. He rarely changed the protection when a corner stepped up on the blitz or audibled out of play and nor did he keep a back in when he believed he’d spotted pressure. But he shows ability to work up the ladder vertically in the pocket to escape backside pressure or to move his feet and get outside and although he’s not Michael Vick, he’s certainly a decent runner and athlete who will avoid sacks and make plays with his feet.

However, one area in which he does struggle is pressure up the middle. He has no answer for it whatsoever and becomes very much like Oklahoma’s Landry Jones. He panics, he shrinks his body and never in the 6 games I watched did he hit a hot route to defeat this, either with a quick throw to a crossing route or to his back in the flat. For a tall QB to have such a lack of understanding of his own physical traits is a concern. And given how pocket tough he is it’s a surprise. Because believe me, there’s not a tougher passer in the Draft. Osweiler will stand in the pocket even though he knows he’s going to get drilled.

Physical Tools and Arm Strength: There is no doubt that he has significant arm ability and he can spin the football down the field on those occasions where his mechanics are right. But one of the most interesting factors about Osweiler is his height and how that factors into the equation. Just a shade under 6’7, he’s one of the tallest QB’s to enter the NFL since the aforementioned Dan McGwire who played just 13 games in his career. There have been a handful of NFL quarterbacks listed at 6-7, including former Cardinals quarterback John Navarre. However, for whatever reason 6-5 seems to the optimal height. For instance, Peyton Manning, Ben Roethlisberger, Carson Palmer and Philip Rivers all are 6-5. Tom Brady and Manning's brother Eli are 6’4 and conventional wisdom is that tall QB’s can see the field better and see over offensive linemen, yet there are smaller, successful passers who are bucking that trend – Drew Brees, Michael Vick and notably in this Draft, Russell Wilson at 5’11 who played behind the tallest offensive line in college football in 2011. But Osweiler’s height is actually a disadvantage for a number of reasons. Jon Gruden touched upon one of them during his QB Camp for ESPN in that because Brock is so tall it means that defenders can see him cleanly on every snap and therefore read his eyes. Of course, when you watch him continue to stare receivers down, that makes their job even easier. But Gruden’s point remains. It actually takes a player with above average eye manipulation ability to confuse a defense at that height. Osweiler doesn’t possess that ability. Also, because Brock has a longer release than most passers, the ball comes out slower which gives DB’s a significantly better chance of closing the cushion. Rarely have I seen a passer throw so many balls that were picked off or almost picked off by defenders cutting in front of slow developing throws. Coaches at ASU were working with him to tighten up the release and the time from identifying the throw to the moment the ball releases from the hand. I’m still unsure whether much impact has been made in that department. So regardless of how fast his throw is, if it’s telegraphed because of a mixture of height, longer release and an inability to look defenders off then there’s an issue.

Why Miami: I’m tempted to write ‘why not’. As I said earlier I think it’s a Billy Beane type of scenario for Jeff Ireland, but I would steer well clear of Osweiler were I the Dolphins General Manager. You’re looking to implement the West Coast Offense under the leadership of a man who tailored it for the best QB in the NFL over the past two seasons in Aaron Rodgers, a player whose game is based on a quick release, on accuracy, on field vision and the ability not to turn the ball over. You’re not looking to hand the reins to an inaccurate turnover machine from a spread offense.

Brock is a contradiction all the way down the line. This is a bright kid, a good kid and yet I have very serious doubts about whether he has the mental or physical capability to run any sort of WC offense or hybrid. Remember, this is a player whose money throw was a built in perimeter bubble screen which he continually failed to hit with accuracy. This is a tall passer who can see the whole field, yet lacks any sort of field vision to make NFL throws with consistency. This is a mobile player who has the ability to create yardage with his feet or extend the play, yet seems incapable of dealing with any sort of pressure in his face and who subsequently takes too many sacks. A player with first round arm strength who has a lengthy delivery pattern. He is a quarterbacking contradiction.

Of course, it’s not at all bad and Philbin and Ireland will like what they see in the mental make-up of Osweiler. He is very tough indeed. Very few college QB’s stand tall in the pocket and take the pounding he did, all the while making sure he got the throw away. He got hammered at times but stood in there and made throws in the face of enormous edge pressure. This may well hark back to his days in Montana where he became the kid everyone wanted to beat where his reputation preceded him and he was somewhat of a marked man on the hard wood and the gridiron in his home state. As his grandfather said; “

Brock took some pretty good licks. It got rough out there. But the kid takes it all in stride. I guess he figures what will be will be.”

There will also be an attraction to his work ethic; he’s a noted hard worker although he has been reported to be a better player than trainer when it comes to performances in practice and although he seems fairly ‘young’ when interviewed, he has a reputation as a strong leader and a good kid. And don’t underestimate the role of highly regarded Miami scout Adam Engroff in this process. He’s responsible for scouting this part of the country and he will have been delving deep into the background of the kid who played his HS ball at Flathead to discover exactly what makes him tick.

But I would be hugely wary of the Dolphins investing any sort of pre 4th round pick in him and quite frankly I’m not sure he’ll ever be a legitimate starting QB. He has a number of maddening traits that he’s yet to overcome despite them being issues on his high school tape all the way through to his very final performance against Boise State. Quite frankly, I would be shocked if the Dolphins believe they can turn Osweiler into a Joe Philbin QB when he lacks the traits that are so necessary in a Joe Philbin passer.

That’s it for this week and for the QB series for 2012. We’ll be back next week with our final Draft Winds of this series where we will try and predict every pick for Miami round by round and look at the sort of names we’re aiming at. There will also be a full and final Miami Meets, the single best way to keep track of who the Dolphins are interested in. Accept no substitute. Until then.

How about the time against Boise State when Erickson sent in the punting unit, but Osweiler waved them off the field so that he could go for it on fourth down? If he does something like that, he'd better complete the pass. He didn't.

A draft choice can be used for more than a game day reason. Spending a later round draft pick on a "developmental" guy who can generate "Buzz" and help create some interest in a seriously depressed fan base isn't necessarily a bad idea for the Dolphins. He may be worth a pick in the 3-6 rounds just to give the coaches somebody to trot out onto the practice field and throw a few balls into the NSU parking lot... He is tall enough and has enough arm talent to get "oohs and aahs" from the folks in the practice field stands who would otherwise be booing. He might be worth it for that reason alone.

A guy with an extreme ability like height and arm strength (even if he can't hit the side of a bus accurately) would help get the booing folks off the rest of the teams back for a little while and maybe they could get some work done in peace. It would also give the media something to write about without costing the Dolphins as much as the #8 pick overall.

I say find a guy in the later rounds with a cannon arm and let him sling it into space in front of the "fans" in pre-season and at the practice sessions. NE may have done precisely that with Mallet last year. It gives the good folks something to wiggle their fingers about and flap their jowls over and lets the rest of the team get on with their business in a little less of a spotlight/circus. I think Philbin would welcome a little less of that pressure in his first year.

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About the author

DAVE HYDE finished second in 2009 in voting for the nation’s top sports columnists by the Associated Press Sports Editors. It was the third time in four years he has finished second in the country in APSE voting for either column or sports feature writing. He has placed 13 times in the Top 10 of APSE writing categories in his career, including a first for investigative work. His writing has been featured in the “Best American Sports Writing” anthology and he has authored “Still Perfect: The Untold Story of the 1972 Miami Dolphins” and "1968: The Year That Saved Ohio State Football.” He worked for Miami Herald before coming to the Sun Sentinel in 1990.