Elections

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Democrat Mike Espy claims momentum in the final days of the Mississippi special Senate election, but Donald Trump heads to the state Monday to blunt it.

Republicans think Cindy Hyde-Smith will ultimately pull out a win in Mississippi’s special Senate election on Tuesday. But they say the race has tightened — and after what happened in Alabama last year, they’re on edge.

A swirl of controversy surrounding the Republican senator — stirred up by her comment about attending a “public hanging” — has given Democrat Mike Espy momentum in the home stretch, officials from both parties say. Hyde-Smith has never trailed in polling, and Democrats acknowledge she’s likely to win, but they argue that her flubs have given Espy a very narrow opening if everything breaks his way.

Henry Barbour, the Republican National Committee committeeman and a longtime Mississippi operative, said base voters in both parties are energized, but gave a slight edge to Espy’s supporters. He said he expects Hyde-Smith to win on Tuesday, though he added that Republicans should be concerned about the potential for weak turnout.

“I think Espy supporters are probably a little more energized than Hyde-Smith,” Barbour said. “But I do think conservative voters realize this race is going to decide if we have a conservative or liberal representing us in Washington and that is very motivating to conservative voters.

“We don’t want to have an Alabama,” he added, referring to Republican Roy Moore’s 2017 loss to Democrat Doug Jones in a special Senate election in the deep-red state.

Republicans are sending the full force of the party to Mississippi to prevent that scenario — starting with Donald Trump. The president is holding two rallies for Hyde-Smith Monday, events that officials hope will spike interest and turnout among conservatives during an oddly-timed, holiday-season election.

“I will be in Gulfport and Tupelo, Mississippi, on Monday night doing two Rallies for Senator Hyde-Smith, who has a very important Election on Tuesday. She is an outstanding person who is strong on the Border, Crime, Military, our great Vets, Healthcare & the 2nd A. Needed in D.C.,” Trump wrote Sunday in one of a pair of tweets for the senator.

The RNC has more than 100 paid staff members on the ground as of this weekend, and has made more than 500,000 voter contacts since Nov. 6, a spokesman said. The RNC transferred $1 million to the National Republican Senatorial Committee earlier this month to help fund TV ads in Mississippi.

National Republican and White House officials, who’ve been reviewing polling over the last week, remain confident Hyde-Smith will prevail. They say surveys have consistently shown her with a lead ranging from the mid-single digits to the low double digits. A public poll conducted this past week by RRH Elections had Hyde-Smith up by 10 points.

Still, White House officials have long expressed unease about Hyde Smith and worry that she wasn’t ready for prime time. Earlier this year, two Trump aides implored Gov. Phil Bryant to appoint someone else to the seat following the retirement of longtime Republican Sen. Thad Cochran. But they’re convinced that Hyde-Smith will pull out a win, even if it’s narrower than it should be.

One Republican working on the runoff who requested anonymity to discuss private polling said the race has tightened recently, but expressed confidence Hyde-Smith would be elected. “A win’s a win,” the Republican said.

Dan Eberhart, a Republican mega-donor who’s contributed heavily to GOP Senate campaigns this year, said Trump’s rallies should eliminate any lingering concerns about the race.

“Trump will carry her over the finish line,” Eberhart said.

Democrats acknowledge Hyde-Smith will receive a significant boost from the president’s campaign rallies on Monday. But they say the appearances will provide a spark to their voters, too.

“When he shows up, of course he’s going to fire up the Republican base,” said Bobby Moak, the state Democratic Party chairman. “But he also does the same thing with the Democratic base.”

Joe Trippi, a consultant working with Espy’s campaign, said the Democrat is probably losing by low single digits in the closing days of the race. Hyde-Smith outpaced Espy by about 8,400 votes, or just a single percentage point, on Nov. 6, while Republican Chris McDaniel took 17 percent. They are in a runoff because no candidate eclipsed 50 percent.

Democrats expect high turnout from their base, boosted in part by backlash to Hyde-Smith’s comments about being first in line to a public hanging if one of her supporters invited her, and a second remark about limiting liberals’ ability to vote. A Jackson, Misssissippi newspaper also reported Friday that she attended a segregation academy for high school.

Espy called the senator’s comments during the campaign a “black eye” for the state, and a recent TV ad by his campaign said she’s reinforced stereotypes the state has worked to overcome. Multiple national companies, including Walmart and Major League Baseball, have requested their donations to Hyde-Smith be refunded because of the comments.

Trippi advised Jones during his improbable win in Alabama last year, and emphasized that Jones won by only 23,000 votes despite facing a historically bad opponent who motivated Democratic voters and depressed GOP turnout.

“We do think we have a real shot,” Trippi said, comparing Tuesday’s election to the Alabama race. “But if we win it’s going to be the same thing” — by a very small margin.

Republicans, meanwhile, have gone on the attack against Espy, airing TV ads highlighting the $750,000 lobbying contract he received from an Ivory Coast dictator earlier this decade. They’re also airing ads simply linking him to national Democrats like Nancy Pelosi, hoping to prevent any crossover Republican support.