After a long career at Barron's, I joined Forbes as San Francisco bureau chief in December 2010. I've been writing about technology and investing for more than 25 years. With the Tech Trade, I've picked up where I left off when I was writing the Tech Trader Daily blog at Barrons.com. When I'm not working, you can find me riding my road bike around the Bay Area hills, managing my fantasy baseball team, rooting for my beloved Phillies and Eagles and hanging out in the Valley with my family. You can follow me on Facebook, on Twitter (@savitz), and on Google+.

Apple/Samsung Smartphone Duopoly Tightens Grip

Apple and Samsung are tightening their control of the smartphone market, according to a new report from Raymond James analyst Tavis McCourt.

McCourt surveyed over 300 consumers in mid-December about their preferences for tablets and smartphones, and what he found was basically more of the same.

“The one-sentence summary is that Apple has lost a bit of its momentum in the calendar fourth quarter, while Samsung has clearly gained strength,” he writes.

“However, our survey remains consistent with Apple gaining both smartphone and tablet subscribers in the U.S., and its iOS ecosystem remains incredibly sticky with an enviable 86% intended retention rate relative to 75% for Android,” McCourt adds.”We see very limited evidence of success in our survey of Nokia and Microsoft turning product awareness into intention to purchase Windows Phones this holiday season. The survey data certainly appears to be trending towards a smartphone duopoly in the U.S. between Apple and Samsung, and a more fragmented tablet market with iPad dominating with over 50% share, and Google, Amazon and Microsoft splitting the rest.”

Some details:

Apple: “We found that nearly every response related to the iPhone was only slightly weaker in the December survey than in September or June, but iPad survey responses showed no signs of competitors impacting Apple’s hold on the tablet market.”

iPhone retention remains roughly 86%, “well above Android and every other ecosystem, although we noticed a slightly less robust trend of Android customers expecting to switch to iOS (Samsung’s commercials worked).”

iPad remains dominant in the tablet market with nearly 2x the number of respondents intending to purchase the iPad mini than the iPad 10-inch.

58% of respondents who intended to purchase a tablet in the future intended to purchase an iPad or iPad mini, “an indication that despite substantial new competition, iPad is still the desired tablet platform in the U.S.”

Nokia: He found “little noticeable trend purchase intentions for the Lumia product line, although awareness has nearly doubled since September. 3.5% of respondents in our survey intended to purchase a Nokia Lumia, which is up from 1.8% in September, and flat with June, but most importantly, too low to declare a discernible uptrend. With the smartphone market so penetrated in the U.S., and retention rates very high for smartphone operating systems, we continue to believe Nokia has an uphill battle in the US. We note that the few respondents who indicated they would switch to a Nokia Lumia all came from the Android platform, and none from iOS.

Research In Motion: Most BlackBerry users are still looking to switch. “Our survey suggested about 33% of RIM’s subscriber base intends to purchase a BlackBerry as their next smartphone, with those likely to switch split evenly between intention to purchase the iPhone or an Android device. Clearly, this 33% figure is what RIM is going to have to turn around first with its BB10 launch in Q1 2013, as Microsoft and Nokiaare experiencing the difficulty of trying to switch customers who are already on iOS or Android.”

Samsung: Clearly consolidating the Android space in the U.S., as it has already successfully done in most of Europe. “Although only 32% of Android respondents had a Galaxy series smartphone today, 56% intended to purchase it as their next smartphone. This would equate to the remaining portion of the Android ecosystem likely to witness a 35% drop in demand if our survey is anywhere close to representative (likely more high end than general population).”

Microsoft: “Although Microsoft has done a tremendous job making consumers aware of its Windows 8 tablets and Windows Phone 8 smartphone lineup, with awareness more than doubling since September, intention to purchase Windows Phones remains anemic (3.5%), while intention to purchase tablets is slightly better than anemic at 6.6%.”

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