Saratoga Saturday: Analyzing the Diana

The turf is "Good" today at Saratoga, where the card is highlighted by
the Grade 1 Diana and the Grade 2 Jim Dandy. I will focus on the fillies
and mares today, as I lack a strong opinion in the Jim Dandy. The Diana
draws a quality field of six horses and should be a great race.

The good turf bodes well for several of today's entries, including
Zagora, who looks to me to be the one to beat as she tries for a repeat
victory. Her Diana victory last year was over good going and she has won
three of her four starts this year. The lone loss was in the Jenny Wiley, which began very slowly. I would assume today's opening fraction
will be below :25. Zagora is the 5-2 second choice, but considering the
prices she has offered this year, it seems fair. She may drop to 2-1,
but I would assume Winter Memories will be favored. Zagora is the horse I
feel most confident backing in this spot.

Tapitsfly ran impressively in the one mile Just A Game last out, but
she will have another panel to go today. She will likely not be given a
clear lead, which she certainly enjoyed last time, due to Law of the
Range to her outside, but she has demonstrated versatility. It will be
interesting to see where Tapitsfly winds up in the running. Law of the
Range should lead early, but could be in deep in her U.S. debut. She
stretches to a distance she has tried to no avail and catches a tough
field. I like Tapitsfly, but I will not be playing her at today's
conditions.

Dream Peace looks dangerous. The Dansili filly has kept good
company, including the open Group 1 Singapore Airlines International
last out. She has also shipped to Woodbine and has run at nine and ten
furlongs. While she was eighth to Chinchon (and others) at Kranji, that
was a very ambitious race to ship for. In the more reasonable journey to
the Grade 1 E.P. Taylor, she nearly won. She should trail the field
early, but will likely be heard from at the end. She was coming off of
better efforts when she shipped to Woodbine last fall, but she's run in
top races on three continents, won going clockwise and counterclockwise,
and should rally late.

Winter Memories is a beautiful gray turf horse, and I usually love
beautiful gray turf horses, but I have never been a fan of Winter
Memories. She is seven of eleven lifetime, however, and two of three at
the Spa, including a decisive victory over the good turf in last year's
Lake George. The morning line favorite has been the post time favorite
in every start she has ever made, including her career debut victory
over Hungry Island...

Who has bested Winter Memories once in four meetings: the Lake Placid last year, run at nine furlongs over a yielding turf course.
Hungry Island does not boast the unbroken string of graded stakes races
in her past performances that most of these do, but the hard-trying
filly always makes a good account of herself. I like Hungry Island and
she looks to fit in this spot.

I expect the two horses closest to the rail to be first and second
early, with Zagora and Winter Memories a ways off the pace ahead of
Hungry Island and Dream Peace. I like Zagora to repeat and will play her
mostly over, some under Hungry Island and Dream Peace.

Older Comments about Saratoga Saturday: Analyzing the Diana...

How can you not like Winter Memories??? With that out of the way, I tend to agree with you. I don't think Tapitsfly will like the 9 f, and I believe Zagora and Winter Memories are the best bets for the top 2 spots.

head_heart_hooves · For completely selfish reasons. When I've bet her, she's burned me. When I don't, she burns me. Solely a handicapping thing. She's a very cool horse, ablility-, personality-, and looks-wise. I just can't seem to get a handle on her. · 1097 days ago

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Unlike many, I did not grow up with
horseracing. My first time at the races was the 2008 Kentucky Derby. I bet on
Colonel John. That fall, I had the good fortune to go to England, where I
visited Ascot and Kempton. When I returned to the U.S., I was hooked. I started
reading handicapping books, studying historic sire lines, watching races and going to Portland Meadows regularly. While the purses there were small, I was able to be close to the action and see firsthand the day-to-day
operations of an average American racetrack.

Last
year I moved home to Chicago. I went to Arlington for the first time this year.
In the interim, I have devoted my time to understanding all aspects of horseracing
I hope to provide unique isights on handicapping perspectives and
multifaceted analyses on the state of horseracing today. I will strive to
write with an open mind and a willingness to learn through the writing process.
I will not claim to be an expert, but I will read thoroughly, write carefully,
and be honest.

To me, the all-time greats are Kelso, John Henry, Round Table and Yeats. Horses I like because they have won me money include Raven's Pass, Alternation, and I'll Have Another. The greatest horse I have even seen live is Zenyatta. I also enjoy the Bears,
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