Saturday, 13 August 2016

Election 2016 recounted

In February this year I tried helpfully devised a new electoral system to introduce enough 'other' parties into parliament without letting them become a nuisance. You can read the full proposal (and the 2013 results) here, but effectively it's a unicameral parliament where 100 members come from a closed party list vote, and the other 100 come from enlarged electorates.

List vote

Each party gets one seat for each full percent, plus one bonus seat for reaching the quota. Then whatever is left to 100 is filled by giving seats to the parties that went closest to another full percent. Last time I subtracted -1.75% from the two major parties and -0.50% from the Greens then added +20% to everyone else to simulate the effect of people knowing that their minor party votes aren't entirely wasted. Looks like a lot of people realised that in the election so I'm changing the calculation to -0.50% for the majors, -0.10% for Green and +5% for everyone else. I've also dialled down the informal in the hope that having to put one number in one box will be easier - but acknowledging that a lot of people like to draw cock and/or balls.

LNP, Liberal, National and Country Liberal and counted in the same grouping. Sex Party/HEMP counted as Sex Party.

Party

2013 vote

2016 vote

% Seats

Bonus

Total

LNP

35.96

33.79

33

1 +1
extra

35 (-2)

ALP

28.36

29.29

29

1

30 (+1)

Greens

8.15

8.55

8

1 + 1 extra

10 (+1)

One Nation

0.63

4.50

4

1

5 (+5)

NXT

2.31

3.46

3

1

4 (+1)

Liberal Democrats

4.69

2.26

2

1

3 (-2)

Hinch

N/A

2.02

2

1

3 (+3)

Shooters

1.14

1.45

1

1

2

Family First

1.33

1.44

1

1

2

Sex Party

1.64

1.29

1

1

2

Christian Democrats

0.64

1.23

1

1

2 (+2)

Animal Justice

0.84

1.20

1

1

2 (+2)

Liberty Alliance

N/A

0.77

0

0

0

DLP

1.00

0.71

0

0

0 (-2)

Health

N/A

0.65

0

0

0

Lambie Network

N/A

0.52

0

0

0

Christians

0.41

0.50

0

0

0

Drug Reform

0.08

0.46

0

0

0

Motoring

0.60

0.40

0

0

0

Katter

1.06

0.40

0

0

0 (-2)

Lazarus

N/A

0.35

0

0

0

Marriage Equality

N/A

0.35

0

0

0

Arts Party

N/A

0.28

0

0

0

Rise Up Australia

0.39

0.27

0

0

0

Pirate Party

0.39

0.27

0

0

0

OTHER

0.59

0

0

0

INFORMAL

3.00

0

0

0

86 (-1)

12 (+1)

2

Electorate seats + list seats

Below assumes Greens, NXT, Katter and independents still win enlarged seats. Last time I assumed Katter would run on the party list, but he's got such a large margin that you can see him taking on the most difficult task of winning the seat. At the same time you can get better value for 1% Senate vote with the bonus, so maybe he would run at the top of the Queensland ticket to try and maximise the value there?

Party

Electorate seats

List seats

Total

LNP

49

35

84

ALP

46

30

76

Greens

1

10

11

One Nation

0

5

5

NXT

1

4

5

Hinch

0

3

3

Liberal Democrats

0

3

3

Animal Justice

0

2

2

Christian Democrats

0

2

2

Family First

0

2

2

Independents

2

0

2

Sex Party

0

2

2

Shooters

0

2

2

Katter

1

0

1

So, everyone except Katter gets a friend in parliament and the LNP need to find 16 votes to get anything through. Will probably create chaos, but I'm into it.