2014 Emmy Nominations Predictions

How will your favorite show fare when the Emmy nominations are announced tomorrow morning?

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True Detective

With its intense lead performances and artsy writing thick as gumbo, the first installment of HBO’s anthology series is sure to rack up a good deal of nominations. Look for Woody Harrelson and Matthew McConaughey to be pitted against each other in the best actor category (though, McConaughey is the real star here), and possibly for Michelle Monaghan to pick up a nomination as the show’s lone central female character. Creator/writer Nic Pizzolatto will undoubtedly be recognized, as will the overall series in the best-drama category. Whether that’s fair—some say that True Detective should be considered a mini-series—is certainly up for debate, but it’s going to happen nonetheless. This could be the show to beat this year.

Breaking Bad

The show to beat used to be Breaking Bad. Even though AMC’s masterful crime drama ended its run nearly a year ago, the final half-season is up for awards this year. (Again with the blurring of the TV season’s borders.) Before True Detective came along, this looked like the sure bet to take everything. And it will certainly get lots of nominations. Bryan Cranston and Aaron Paul are shoo-ins, and I can’t see the Academy ignoring Dean Norris’s strong, tragic work in his final run of episodes. Same for Anna Gunn, who won the supporting-actress Emmy last year. But the show ended so long ago that I wonder if it really has the momentum to make it onto the stage come September. The number of nominations it gets ought to give us an impression of its ultimate awards chances. Will it go out with a bang or a whimper?

The Also-Rans

With True Detective and Breaking Bad dominating much of the awards chatter, will critically beloved but less zeitgeist-y shows like Mad Men and House of Cards be ignored? Well, probably not, at least as far as nominations are concerned. We should expect to see Jon Hamm, Kevin Spacey, Robin Wright, and Elisabeth Moss on the lists tomorrow morning. But their shows have definitely been overshadowed by more buzzed-about series this year, so it’s possible there might be more of a shutout than expected. Hamm has, rather surprisingly, never won an Emmy for his iconic role, and this is his second-to-last chance to do so. (The show is ending next summer.) But with McConaughey and Cranston in the mix, it doesn’t seem likely it will happen this year.

The Good Wife

Remember network-television dramas? The Emmys barely do. Except in the case of The Good Wife. The consistently nominated series will likely get extra attention this year, owing to a big narrative shakeup and a huge character death. Spoiler alert: that probably means that Josh Charles will get a nomination for his swan-song run of episodes. And, as ever, Julianna Margulies will carry the torch for all the dramatic 22-episoders. Enjoy it while it lasts, though. Once The Good Wife is gone, the networks may find themselves completely shut out of the drama categories for good. (Though, James Spader could possibly pick up a nomination this year for The Black List, because the Emmys love James Spader.)

Game of Thrones

Given the size of its cast, no one on Game of Thrones gets all that much screen time. So the series’s Emmy success will likely come in the supporting and guest-starring categories. Look for fan favorites like Pedro Pascal (who played delightful, doomed Oberyn Martell this season), Charles Dance (dastardly, doomed Tywin Lannister), and Dame Diana Rigg (droll, not at all doomed Olenna Tyrell) to score nominations. Past winner Peter Dinklage will likely be named as well, but will the overall show? It’s got a lot of competition this year, and its high fantasy elements may put off some stuffier Academy voters. But its strong roster of acting talent will at least be recognized. We hope, anyway.

Orange Is the New Black

No, Netflix’s sleeper hit wasn’t snubbed last year. It just didn’t get released in time for eligibility, so this year’s Emmy nominations will be for the first season. Which means that mesmerizing Season 2 villain Lorraine Toussaint will have to wait a whole year for her deserved nomination. (Or, perhaps more likely, undeserved snub.) But we’ll probably see nods for Taylor Schilling and Kate Mulgrew, and hopefully others. It’s important to remember that OITNB was submitted in the comedy category for some reason, where the competition is less fierce. (That’s actually probably the reason.) So the show has a good shot at racking up a lot of nominations. But the truth is, we have no way of knowing how the Academy will go with this show. It has no prior history! So tomorrow will really set the tone. We think the Academy will like the show, but who knows?

Battle of the Network Comedy Stars

For the time being, the networks still have the market cornered on comedy. Stalwart winner Modern Family and its cast will almost assuredly be shortlisted this year, as will perpetual also-ran Parks and Recreation and its star Amy Poehler. But what about a show like __Brooklyn Nine-Nine__? Despite a wan critical reception last fall, the show, out of nowhere, won the Golden Globe for best comedy series this year. Will the Emmys follow suit? Or will this just be another ho-hum Modern Family-dominated year? ABC’s mega-hit is getting pretty long in the tooth, as is Parks and Recreation, so maybe this is the year some newer blood finally takes over.

The Cable Comedies

Though he ran into some controversy this year, Louis C.K.’s Louie is too good to be ignored. So is Girls, though its most recent season was something of a downer. HBO’s Veep is probably the cable show to beat, or at least Julia Louis-Dreyfus is the actress to beat. On the slightly more outre end of things, might all the praise the Internet heaped on Broad City throw some Emmy attention its way? It’s doubtful, but we can dream. Likely Louie, Girls, and Veep will join Modern Family and Parks and Rec on the nominations list, and then, y’know, won’t win.