tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-90590863811621724762015-03-27T10:28:37.271-07:00Intelwire.comINTELWIRE by J.M. Berger, co-author, ISIS: The State of Terror; author, Jihad Joe: Americans Who Go to War in the Name of Islam; nonresident fellow, Brookings InstitutionAdminnoreply@blogger.comBlogger791125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9059086381162172476.post-35256950173434131502015-03-27T09:41:00.001-07:002015-03-27T10:28:37.322-07:00INTELWIRE Weekly Brief, 3/27/15Saudi Arabia <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/03/27/us-yemen-security-usa-idUSKBN0MN04020150327" target="_blank">launched airstrikes</a> into Yemen this week, with ground forces very possibly to follow, all aimed at countering the rise of the Houthi movement, which it sees (or portrays) as an Iranian proxy, as opposed to the country's kind-of-president&nbsp;Abd Rabbu Mansour Hadi, who is currently hanging his hat in Riyadh. A scorecard of the players <a href="http://www.yourmiddleeast.com/culture/whos-who-in-yemen_26855" target="_blank">is here</a>.<br /><br />The complexities of Yemeni politics are best left to the regional specialists (I especially recommend <a href="http://www.buzzfeed.com/gregorydjohnsen/saudi-bombs-begin-falling-in-yemen-with-no-clear-endgame#.ov1XyVwG6" target="_blank">Gregory Johnsen</a>). but I will say a few words about power and structure.<br /><br />Since September 11, we have seen a gradually spreading trend toward the destruction of existing power structures, i.e. governments, through external intervention (Iraq, Afghanistan), internal uprising (Egypt, Tunisia) or both (Libya). The new power structures that have arisen to fill the vacuum are fragile at best, and nonexistent at worst. Yemen has been "on the brink" of disaster for years now, according to headline writers, and the chaos is only likely to deepen as a result of this week's events. <br /><br />The overall trend in the Middle East, North Africa and beyond appears to be toward the creation and expansion of spaces that are less and less governed, creating more and more opportunities for evil actors such as ISIS and Bashar al Assad to inflict industrial-scale cruelties in the name of some semblance of order.<br /><br />This may be an inevitable period of transition, one in which existing power structures overburdened with corruption must inevitably fall, and it doesn't take much imagination to see where those dominoes are pointing. The question is whether we must next endure a new dark age of escalating violence and toxic ideologies, and if there is any way to steer events in order to contain the chaos and minimize the horrific human costs that seem to lie unavoidably before us. I wish I had an answer to this question, but I don't.<br /><br />The only advice that seems relevant at the moment, both for the West and for the powers that are still standing in the region, is: First, do no harm. Unfortunately, I don't think our current policy configurations meet that test.<br /><br />More on this in the weeks to come.<br /><div style="text-align: right;"><i><br /></i></div><div style="text-align: right;"><i>-- J.M. Berger&nbsp;</i></div><br /><b>ISIS: THE STATE OF TERROR&nbsp;</b><br /><b><br /></b><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-vDRx5bGH8-c/VRV97t0SVeI/AAAAAAAC8QY/yGQ74pla_0k/s1600/brookings2.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-vDRx5bGH8-c/VRV97t0SVeI/AAAAAAAC8QY/yGQ74pla_0k/s1600/brookings2.jpg" height="480" width="640" /></a></div><b><br /></b><b><br /></b><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/--njE3G_mfJU/VRV-n2mC-2I/AAAAAAAC8Qg/nssquD3QJqo/s1600/pressc.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/--njE3G_mfJU/VRV-n2mC-2I/AAAAAAAC8Qg/nssquD3QJqo/s1600/pressc.jpg" /></a></div>The official book launch for <a href="http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/0062395548/ref=as_li_tl?ie=UTF8&amp;camp=1789&amp;creative=390957&amp;creativeASIN=0062395548&amp;linkCode=as2&amp;tag=nabobsnet-20&amp;linkId=5L5A7V5ESBJGYELG" target="_blank">ISIS: The State of Terror</a>&nbsp;took place at the Brookings Institution this week, with Jessica Stern and J.M. Berger taking part in a discussion moderated by Will McCants, director of the Brookings Project on U.S. Relations with the Islamic World. <a href="http://www.brookings.edu/events/2015/03/24-isis-state-of-terror-book-launch" target="_blank">Audio of the event</a> has been posted online. Later that evening, Stern and Berger discussed the book at the National Press Club. Video from that event will be available later.<br /><br /><a href="http://www.salon.com/2015/03/22/isis_making_sense_of_the_spectacular_brutality_and_viral_engagement_fueling_the_new_state_of_terror/">Salon reviewed</a> the book, calling it a "profound act of counterterrorism," and "an essential primer and antidote to the mindlessness that ISIS wants to foment." The <a href="http://www.standard.co.uk/lifestyle/books/the-is-blueprint-for-terror-in-the-21st-century-10120849.html">Evening Standard wrote</a> that the book is a "timely and important history of a movement that now defines the 21st century." <a href="https://www.kirkusreviews.com/book-reviews/jessica-stern/isis-state/">Kirkus Reviews </a>says "this book offers much to learn about ISIS and an expanded understanding of current events."<br /><br />Additional book events will be held in New York City next week, and in Washington, D.C. in April. You can purchase <i>ISIS: The State of Terror</i> at bookstores everywhere and <a href="http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/0062395548/ref=as_li_tl?ie=UTF8&amp;camp=1789&amp;creative=390957&amp;creativeASIN=0062395548&amp;linkCode=as2&amp;tag=nabobsnet-20&amp;linkId=5L5A7V5ESBJGYELG" target="_blank">on Amazon.com</a>.<br /><br /><b>ISIS WATCH</b><br /><b><br /></b><a href="http://www.npr.org/blogs/parallels/2015/03/21/394322708/under-isis-life-in-mosul-takes-a-turn-for-the-bleak?utm_campaign=storyshare&amp;utm_source=twitter.com&amp;utm_medium=social">Under ISIS, Life In Mosul Takes A Turn For The Bleak</a><br />Daily life is increasingly grim. Fighters are on edge as coalition airstrikes hit ISIS military bases and convoys. Some ISIS fighters have retreated to Mosul from the nearby battlefront in Tikrit, where the government launched the first major assault against ISIS.<br /><br /><a href="http://www.rollingstone.com/culture/features/teenage-jihad-inside-the-world-of-american-kids-seduced-by-isis-20150325">The Children of ISIS</a><br />Why did three American kids from the suburbs of Chicago try to run away to the Islamic state, and should the Feds treat them as terrorists?<br /><br /><a href="http://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/backgroundbriefing/2015-03-22/6325498">Radicalisation and the 'sweet talkers' for IS</a><br />Stories of young Australians joining IS have been front page news for months, but who is convincing them to leave? Sarah Dingle uncovered three previously unreported cases of young Somali-Australian Muslims lured by ‘sweet talkers’ to join the war in Syria.<br /><br /><a href="http://foreignpolicy.com/2015/03/23/has-the-caliphate-come-to-kabul-isis-afghanistan-ghani/?utm_content=bufferac38f&amp;utm_medium=social&amp;utm_source=twitter.com&amp;utm_campaign=buffer">Has the Caliphate Come to Kabul?</a><br />Fear of the Islamic State is making for strange bedfellows in the land of warlords and the Taliban.<br /><br /><a href="http://www.cnn.com/2015/03/26/europe/turkey-magazine-bombing/index.html">Pro-ISIS magazine in Istanbul bombed</a><br />A bomb blast ripped through the Istanbul offices of a radical, pro-ISIS magazine killing a writer and wounding its editor-in-chief as well as two other people on Wednesday night.<br /><b><br /></b><b>TERROR WATCH</b><br /><br /><a href="http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/143293/jennifer-r-williams/the-bureaucracy-of-terror#cid=soc-twitter-at-snapshot-the_bureaucracy_of_terror-000000">The Bureaucracy of Terror</a><br />A new trove of documents that were among those seized in the 2011 raid on Osama bin Laden’s compound in Abbottabad, Pakistan, were presented recently during the trial of Abid Naseer at the Brooklyn federal district court.<br /><br /><a href="http://tbo.com/news/crime/agents-chatter-in-osmakac-sting-skirts-line-between-protection-entrapment-20150321/">Agents’ chatter in Osmakac sting skirts line between protection, entrapment</a><br />Months after Sami Osmakac started serving a 40-year sentence for terrorism, debate continues over the FBI sting operation that landed him in prison.<br /><br /><a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/03/26/us-boston-bombings-trial-idUSKBN0MM17Y20150326">Boston bombing jury sees mock bombs, victim autopsy photos</a><br />Jurors viewed the six-quart (5.7-liter) mock bombsafter an FBI special agent read out the instructions in al Qaeda's "Inspire" magazine that prosecutors contend Tsarnaev and his older brother used to make their bombs.<br /><br /><a href="http://www.brookings.edu/blogs/markaz/posts/2015/03/23-syrian-islamists-balancing-with-alqaeda-lister#.VRAdH_CNINE.twitter">Are Syrian Islamists moving to counterbalance Al-Qaeda? Will it last?</a><br />Now finding themselves involved in the fifth year of a brutal civil conflict that has left at least 220,000 people dead, displaced 10 million others inside and outside the country, and trapped over 640,000 under military siege, the strategic thinking within the Syrian insurgency is subtly shifting.<br /><br /><a href="http://www.yourmiddleeast.com/culture/whos-who-in-yemen_26855">Who’s who in Yemen</a><br />An attempt to break down the names, acronyms and confusing politics involved in Yemen.<br /><br /><b>RESEARCH HIGHLIGHTS</b><br /><br /><a href="http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/09546553.2015.1011799#abstract">Why Violence Abates: Imposed and Elective Declines in Terrorist Attacks</a><br />This article aims to understand why violence varies in the short term within many organizations, and places a special focus on declines in violence.&nbsp;<i>By Michael Becker</i><br /><br /><a href="http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/17440572.2015.1019612#abstract?ai=vl&amp;mi=3d59j5&amp;af=R">Government protection against terrorism and crime</a><br />A game theoretic model is developed where a government protects against a terrorist seeking terrorism and criminal objectives.&nbsp;<i>By&nbsp;</i><i>Kjell Hauskena and Dipak K. Guptab</i><br /><br /><div style="text-align: right;"><i>-- INTELWIRE Staff</i></div><br /><span style="font-style: italic;">Buy the new book <a href="http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/0062395548/ref=as_li_tl?ie=UTF8&amp;camp=1789&amp;creative=390957&amp;creativeASIN=0062395548&amp;linkCode=as2&amp;tag=nabobsnet-20&amp;linkId=5L5A7V5ESBJGYELG">ISIS: The State of Terror</a> by Jessica Stern and J.M. Berger. <br /><br />Buy J.M. Berger's seminal book on American jihadists, <a href="http://amzn.to/ahwBqH">Jihad Joe: Americans Who Go to War in the Name of Islam</a></span> <div class="blogger-post-footer"><p><a href="http://intelwire.egoplex.com/press.html">Media contact for this post</a> | <a href="http://intelwire.egoplex.com/sourcebooks.html">INTELWIRE Sourcebooks for Journalists</a> | <a href="http://multifacetedmedia.com/">(C) 2010, Mulitfaceted Media Group</a></p></div>schhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01951118573237940065noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9059086381162172476.post-19060811300003862262015-03-20T09:21:00.003-07:002015-03-20T09:21:53.973-07:00Intelwire Weekly Brief, 3/20/2015 -- ISIS in Yemen, Tunisia, Afghanistan<b>BREAKING NEWS</b><br /><b><br /></b>ISIS <a href="http://www.iol.co.za/news/world/islamic-state-claims-yemen-mosque-blasts-1.1835199" target="_blank">has claimed</a> a <a href="http://www.albawaba.com/news/two-mosques-yemen-attacked-suicide-bombers-during-friday-prayers-many-injured-671470" target="_blank">quadruple suicide bombing</a> of two mosques in Sana'a, Yemen, following hard on the heels of its claim to the <a href="http://www.globalpost.com/dispatch/news/afp/150320/tunisia-says-museum-gunmen-trained-libya-1" target="_blank">Bardo Museum attack</a> in Tunisia. Both reports appear to be authentically issued by ISIS, based on their distribution by known official ISIS disseminators online, but there is a chance, probably small, that they are falsely claiming these incidents.<br /><br />The gunmen in the latter attack reportedly trained in Libya, where ISIS has several <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2015/03/18/world/middleeast/brigade-takes-on-isis-allies-in-libya.html?_r=0" target="_blank">significant strongholds</a>. As ISIS's insurgency in Iraq comes under increasing pressure (though that initiative&nbsp;<a href="http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2015/03/19/the-big-offensive-against-isis-in-tikrit-has-stalled.html" target="_blank">far from a fait accompli</a>&nbsp;and introduces <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2015/03/19/world/middleeast/iraq-looting.html" target="_blank">new and significant problems</a>), it is compensating by flexing its terrorist muscles abroad.<br /><br />In many ways, this can be seen as similar to the way al Qaeda metastasized after the U.S. invasion of Afghanistan, with notable differences. Importantly, it's happening much, much faster. In part, this is because ISIS is much stronger now than al Qaeda was in 2001, but it is also taking advantage of the groundwork laid by al Qaeda as it spread out geographically in response to U.S. military pressure. Additionally, ISIS is more centrally controlled, and it is strategically inclined toward swift and highly visible action, compared to al Qaeda's emphasis on stealth and long planning cycles.<br /><br />More on all of this in the week to come.<br /><b><br /></b><b>RESEARCH HIGHLIGHT</b><br /><br /><a href="https://www.ctc.usma.edu/posts/march-2015-baya-special-issue" target="_blank">CTC Sentinel: Baya'a Special Issue</a><br />As the events above suggests, one of the most important issues in terrorism today is the mounting shift of allegiances from al Qaeda to ISIS. The Sentinel journal, published by the Combating Terrorism Center at West Point, has devoted an entire issue to these questions, and it's important reading for everyone covering terrorism today. Of particular interest is Don Rassler's article on ISIS's <a href="https://www.ctc.usma.edu/posts/situating-the-emergence-of-the-islamic-state-of-khorasan" target="_blank">new fronts in Afghanistan and Pakistan</a>, the very heart of al Qaeda territory. It's early days yet, but ISIS's relatively strong entry raises the question: If AQ can't hold Af-Pak, what can it hold?<br /><br /><i>-- J.M. Berger</i><br /><b><br /></b><b>INTELWIRE AT SXSW</b><br /><b><br /></b><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-mnqmdhEVPJo/VQxIrjFRU9I/AAAAAAAC8Ns/kOWeMYXmy_4/s1600/sxsw.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-mnqmdhEVPJo/VQxIrjFRU9I/AAAAAAAC8Ns/kOWeMYXmy_4/s1600/sxsw.PNG" height="275" width="400" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div>J.M. Berger and Jonathon Morgan discussed the ISIS Twitter Census at South by Southwest in Austin, Texas, this week. Read the <a href="http://www.brookings.edu/research/papers/2015/03/isis-twitter-census-berger-morgan" target="_blank">full report here</a>.<br /><b><br /></b><b>ISIS: THE STATE OF TERROR</b><br /><br /><a href="http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/0062395548/ref=as_li_tl?ie=UTF8&amp;camp=1789&amp;creative=390957&amp;creativeASIN=0062395548&amp;linkCode=as2&amp;tag=nabobsnet-20&amp;linkId=5L5A7V5ESBJGYELG" target="_blank">ISIS: The State of Terror</a>, the new book by Jessica Stern and J.M. Berger, is on sale now in bookstores and on Kindle. The <a href="http://timely%20and%20important%20history%20of%20a%20movement%20that%20now%20defines%20the%2021st%20century/" target="_blank">London Evening Standard</a> calls it "timely and important history of a movement that now defines the 21st century." CNN's Peter Bergen says "Stern and Berger write clearly and persuasively and marshal impressive primary research from ISIS's prodigious propaganda to explain how ISIS became the dominant jihadi group today. It's a terrific and important read." <a href="http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/0062395548/ref=as_li_tl?ie=UTF8&amp;camp=1789&amp;creative=390957&amp;creativeASIN=0062395548&amp;linkCode=as2&amp;tag=nabobsnet-20&amp;linkId=5L5A7V5ESBJGYELG" target="_blank">Buy it now</a> and learn about the growing challenge ISIS presents to the world.<br /><br /><b>ISIS WATCH</b><br /><br /><a href="http://www.buzzfeed.com/mikegiglio/the-hidden-enemy-in-iraq?utm_term=.bdwzVj6n1#.kgq4MxZMbK">The Hidden Enemy In Iraq</a><br />The forces fighting ISIS in Iraq have been struggling with the vast number of IEDs the militant group is leaving in its wake.<br /><br /><a href="http://foreignpolicy.com/2015/03/17/air-force-veteran-charged-with-trying-to-join-the-islamic-state/?utm_source=Sailthru&amp;utm_medium=email&amp;utm_term=%2ASituation%20Report&amp;utm_campaign=Sit%20Rep%20March%20182015">Air Force Veteran Charged With Trying to Join the Islamic State</a><br />A federal grand jury in New York has indicted U.S. Air Force veteran Tairod Nathan Webster Pugh on charges that he conspired to join the Islamic State, the latest in a growing line of Americans being nabbed trying to fight alongside the extremist group.<br /><br /><a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-31917421?utm_source=Sailthru&amp;utm_medium=email&amp;utm_term=%2ASituation%20Report&amp;utm_campaign=Sit%20Rep%20March%20182015">Nigeria says it has ousted Boko Haram from town of Bama</a><br />Nigeria's military says it has retaken the north-eastern town of Bama from the Islamist military group Boko Haram.<br /><br /><a href="http://www.cbsnews.com/news/british-police-free-alleged-teen-isis-recruits-arrest-18-year-old/">British police free alleged teen ISIS recruits, arrest 18-year-old</a><br />British police, under pressure to stem the flow of would-be militants eager to join the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS), on Monday arrested an 18-year-old man suspected of planning to travel to Syria. Hours earlier, they freed on bail three other U.K. teens detained in Turkey, allegedly on their way to link up with the extremist group.<br /><br /><br /><b>TERROR WATCH</b><br /><br /><a href="http://blog.crisisgroup.org/middle-east-north-africa/2015/03/19/tunisias-grand-compromise-faces-its-biggest-test/">Tunisia’s Grand Compromise Faces its Biggest Test</a><br />In this Q&amp;A, Crisis Group’s Tunisia Senior Analyst Michaël Béchir Ayari discusses the political fallout of the 18 March attack on Tunis’s Bardo Museum which killed 23 people, mostly tourists.<br /><br /><a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2015/03/18/world/asia/afghan-militia-leaders-empowered-by-us-to-fight-taliban-inspire-fear-in-villages.html?action=click&amp;pgtype=Homepage&amp;module=a-lede-package-region&amp;region=top-news&amp;WT.nav=top-news&amp;_r=1&amp;utm_source=Sailthru&amp;utm_medium=email&amp;utm_term=%2ASituation%20Report&amp;utm_campaign=Sit%20Rep%20March%2017%202015">Afghan Militia Leaders, Empowered by U.S. to Fight Taliban, Inspire Fear in Villages</a><br />Scattered across Afghanistan, militia leaders are a significant part of the legacy of the American war here, brought to power amid a Special Operations counterinsurgency strategy that mobilized anti-Taliban militias in areas beyond the grasp of the Afghan Army.<br /><br /><a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2015/03/18/world/middleeast/syria-activists-say-chlorine-gas-attack-kills-6-in-idlib.html?ref=world&amp;utm_source=Sailthru&amp;utm_medium=email&amp;utm_term=%2ASituation%20Report&amp;utm_campaign=Sit%20Rep%20March%20182015">Syrian Activists Say Chlorine Gas Attack Kills 6 in Idlib Province</a><br /><div>Anti-government activists in Syria said Tuesday that a chlorine bomb attack by government forces on a northwestern village overnight had killed six people and filled clinics with choking victims.</div><br /><a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/suicide-bombers-attack-catholic-church-in-pakistan/2015/03/15/e21f1b8a-caed-11e4-b2a1-bed1aaea2816_story.html?utm_source=Sailthru&amp;utm_medium=email&amp;utm_term=%2ASituation%20Report&amp;utm_campaign=Sit%20Rep%20March%2016%202015">Christians riot in Pakistan after attacks targeting churches kill 14</a><br />Members of the Christian community rampaged through the streets of Lahore on Sunday after suicide bombers attacked two churches during morning services, killing at least 14 people and wounding more than 70.<br /><br /><a href="http://talkingpointsmemo.com/livewire/ryan-giroux-neo-nazis-mesa-shooting">Tattooed Neo-Nazi Named As Suspect In Deadly Arizona Shooting Spree</a><br />The man believed to have gone on a deadly shooting spree Wednesday in Mesa, Arizona has a criminal record and purported ties to neo-Nazi and white supremacist groups.<br /><br /><a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/us-had-role-in-deadly-counterterrorism-raid-in-philippines/2015/03/17/6ab42816-ccd6-11e4-8a46-b1dc9be5a8ff_story.html?utm_source=Sailthru&amp;utm_medium=email&amp;utm_term=%2ASituation%20Report&amp;utm_campaign=Sit%20Rep%20March%20182015">Manila: U.S. had key role in deadly counterterrorism raid in Philippines</a><br />U.S. counterterrorism personnel played a hidden but key role in a bungled commando operation in the Philippines that resulted in dozens of deaths and a political scandal, according to a government investigation released Tuesday in Manila.<br /><br /><a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/pentagon-loses-sight-of-500-million-in-counterterrorism-aid-given-to-yemen/2015/03/17/f4ca25ce-cbf9-11e4-8a46-b1dc9be5a8ff_story.html?utm_source=Sailthru&amp;utm_medium=email&amp;utm_term=%2ASituation%20Report&amp;utm_campaign=Sit%20Rep%20March%20182015">Pentagon loses track of $500 million in weapons, equipment given to Yemen</a><br />The Pentagon is unable to account for more than $500 million in U.S. military aid given to Yemen, amid fears that the weaponry, aircraft and equipment is at risk of being seized by Iranian-backed rebels or al-Qaeda, according to U.S. officials.<br /><br /><span style="font-style: italic;">-- By INTELWIRE Staff&nbsp;</span><br /><span style="font-style: italic;"><br /></span><span style="font-style: italic;">Buy the new book <a href="http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/0062395548/ref=as_li_tl?ie=UTF8&amp;camp=1789&amp;creative=390957&amp;creativeASIN=0062395548&amp;linkCode=as2&amp;tag=nabobsnet-20&amp;linkId=5L5A7V5ESBJGYELG">ISIS: The State of Terror</a> by Jessica Stern and J.M. Berger. <br /><br />Buy J.M. Berger's seminal book on American jihadists, <a href="http://amzn.to/ahwBqH">Jihad Joe: Americans Who Go to War in the Name of Islam</a></span> <div class="blogger-post-footer"><p><a href="http://intelwire.egoplex.com/press.html">Media contact for this post</a> | <a href="http://intelwire.egoplex.com/sourcebooks.html">INTELWIRE Sourcebooks for Journalists</a> | <a href="http://multifacetedmedia.com/">(C) 2010, Mulitfaceted Media Group</a></p></div>schhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01951118573237940065noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9059086381162172476.post-54078269421975057272015-03-13T06:20:00.003-07:002015-03-13T06:20:49.142-07:00INTELWIRE Weekly Brief 03/13/15<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-yPWf-jmLPVI/VQLkDSZ1PtI/AAAAAAAC7_M/UGuDq-g30jw/s1600/brookings.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-yPWf-jmLPVI/VQLkDSZ1PtI/AAAAAAAC7_M/UGuDq-g30jw/s1600/brookings.png" height="290" width="640" /></a></div><br />It was a big week for INTELWIRE, starting with a panel at the Brookings Institution on ISIS ideology and propaganda featuring Will McCants, Jonathon Morgan, Anastasia Norton and Cole Bunzel, author of the new paper linked below.<br /><br />Then, on Thursday, <a href="http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/0062395548/ref=as_li_tl?ie=UTF8&amp;camp=1789&amp;creative=390957&amp;creativeASIN=0062395548&amp;linkCode=as2&amp;tag=nabobsnet-20&amp;linkId=5L5A7V5ESBJGYELG" target="_blank">ISIS: The State of Terror</a> officially went on sale. Follow <a href="http://twitter.com/intelwire" target="_blank">@intelwire on Twitter</a> for a rolling list of media appearances, and more importantly, buy the book and tell your friends!<br /><b><br /></b><a href="http://www.brookings.edu/~/media/research/files/papers/2015/03/ideology-of-islamic-state-bunzel/the-ideology-of-the-islamic-state.pdf">From paper state to caliphate: The ideology of the Islamic State</a><br /><br />While the Islamic State dominates headlines through its brutal tactics and pervasive propaganda, there is little awareness of the unique ideology driving the group's strategy.&nbsp;<i>by Cole Bunzel</i><br /><i><br /></i><b>ISIS WATCH</b><br /><b></b><br /><a href="http://news.nationalpost.com/2015/03/11/isis-sympathizer-arrested-after-plotting-to-bomb-u-s-consulate-in-toronto-cbsa/">ISIS sympathizer arrested after plotting to bomb U.S. consulate in Toronto: CBSA</a><br />At an immigration hearing on Wednesday, the Canada Border Services Agency alleged that Jahanzeb Malik, who first came to Canada in 2004 as a student, was an ISIS supporter and had plotted to bomb the U.S. consulate and financial buildings in Toronto.<br /><br /><a href="http://news.yahoo.com/accepts-allegiance-nigeria-jihadists-boko-haram-201513146.html;_ylt=AwrBEiLJ9QFVvG0AkzPQtDMD">IS welcomes Boko Haram allegiance: tape</a><br />The Islamic State group welcomed a pledge of allegiance made to it by Boko Haram and vowed to press with its expansion, according to an audiotape Thursday purportedly from its spokesman.<br /><br />I<a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2015/03/12/world/middleeast/isis-ramadi-tikrit-iraqi-army.html?utm_source=Sailthru&amp;utm_medium=email&amp;utm_term=%2ASituation%20Report&amp;utm_campaign=Sit%20Rep%20March%2012%202015&amp;_r=0">raqi Army Cements Hold on Tikrit, but Islamic State Sends a Message</a><br /><div><div>BAGHDAD — Iraqi government forces and allied Shiite militias began consolidating control over most of the city of Tikrit on Wednesday, declaring they were on their way to a strategically and emotionally significant victory in their nine-day offensive against Islamic State militants there.</div><div><br /></div></div><a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2015/03/11/world/africa/isis-seizes-opportunity-in-libyas-turmoil.html?utm_source=Sailthru&amp;utm_medium=email&amp;utm_term=%2ASituation%20Report&amp;utm_campaign=Sit%20Rep%20March%2011%202015">ISIS Finds New Frontier in Chaotic Libya</a><br /><div><div>Libya has become a new frontier for the radical group as it comes under increasing pressure from American-led airstrikes on its original strongholds in Iraq and Syria.</div><div><br /><a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2015/03/12/world/middleeast/family-of-palestinian-man-killed-by-isis-say-he-wasnt-spying-for-israel.html">Family Denies Palestinian Killed by ISIS Was Spy</a><br /><div><div>Mohamed Musallam can be seen in a video released Tuesday on his knees wearing the familiar orange jumpsuit of an Islamic State captive. Before he is shot in the head by a boy, he admits under obvious duress that he was “an agent for the Israeli Mossad.”</div><div><br /><div><a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/03/10/us-nigeria-violence-idUSKBN0M61MN20150310?utm_source=Sailthru&amp;utm_medium=email&amp;utm_term=%2ASituation%20Report&amp;utm_campaign=Sit%20Rep%20March%2011%202015">Suspected suicide bomber kills at least 12 in Nigeria's Maiduguri</a></div><div><div>A suspected female suicide bomber killed at least 12 people on Tuesday in Maiduguri, capital of Nigeria's Borno state, military and hospital sources said, three days after a multiple bomb attack in the city killed more than 50.</div><div><br /></div></div></div></div></div></div><b>TERROR WATCH</b><br /><b><br /></b><a href="http://nyti.ms/19gpOBj" target="_blank">Strategy for Defending Tsarnaev in Marathon Bombings Is Vintage Darrow</a><br />When Judy Clarke, the lead defense lawyer for Dzhokhar Tsarnaev, announced at the outset of his trial last week that her client was responsible for the Boston Marathon bombings, she was following a strategy laid out by Clarence Darrow almost a century ago. <b>&nbsp;</b><br /><br /><a href="http://www.latimes.com/world/europe/la-fg-syria-hazm-20150310-story.html?utm_source=Sailthru&amp;utm_medium=email&amp;utm_term=%2ASituation%20Report&amp;utm_campaign=Sit%20Rep%20March%2011%202015#page=1">Fall of U.S.-backed Syrian group casts doubt on plan to arm moderates</a><br /><div><div>In recent days, Al Nusra and its adherents have gleefully uploaded images of foodstuffs and weapons purportedly captured after the group's forces commandeered the former bastion of a U.S.-backed rebel faction known as Harakat Hazm, or Resolve Movement.</div><div><br /></div><div><div><a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2015/03/12/world/europe/citing-fear-of-neo-nazi-group-a-german-mayor-quits.html?partner=rss&amp;emc=rss">Citing Fear of Neo-Nazi Group, a German Mayor Quits</a><br />The resignation of Markus Nierth, 46, mayor of Tröglitz, has set off a firestorm in Germany, where the authorities have become increasingly alarmed by the growing strength of far-right forces that have been taking to the streets to protest a swelling number of asylum seekers.<br /><br /><a href="http://elpais.com/elpais/2015/03/11/inenglish/1426073218_013620.html">Why did the Madrid train bombings divide, not unite Spaniards?</a></div></div></div><div><div>Contrary to what happened in British society after the London attacks on July 7, 2005, the Madrid train bombings of March 11, 2004 profoundly divided Spanish society.</div><div><div><br /></div></div></div><div><br /></div><span style="font-style: italic;">Buy&nbsp;<a href="http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/0062395548/ref=as_li_tl?ie=UTF8&amp;camp=1789&amp;creative=390957&amp;creativeASIN=0062395548&amp;linkCode=as2&amp;tag=nabobsnet-20&amp;linkId=5L5A7V5ESBJGYELG">ISIS: The State of Terror</a> by Jessica Stern and J.M. Berger. Buy J.M. Berger's book, <a href="http://amzn.to/ahwBqH">Jihad Joe: Americans Who Go to War in the Name of Islam</a></span> <div class="blogger-post-footer"><p><a href="http://intelwire.egoplex.com/press.html">Media contact for this post</a> | <a href="http://intelwire.egoplex.com/sourcebooks.html">INTELWIRE Sourcebooks for Journalists</a> | <a href="http://multifacetedmedia.com/">(C) 2010, Mulitfaceted Media Group</a></p></div>schhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01951118573237940065noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9059086381162172476.post-83552587114653497802015-03-12T19:49:00.001-07:002015-03-12T19:49:38.159-07:00ISIS: The State of Terror, on sale now<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><span style="font-style: italic;"><span style="font-family: Alike, serif; font-style: normal;">Jessica Stern and J.M. Berger co-author the new book, "ISIS: The State of Terror," from Ecco, an imprint of HarperCollins. The book examines the rise of the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria, its potential fall, how it is transforming the nature of extremist movements, and how we should evaluate the threat it presents.&nbsp;</span><a href="http://jessicasternbooks.com/" style="font-family: Alike, serif; font-style: normal;">Jessica Stern</a><span style="font-family: Alike, serif; font-style: normal;">&nbsp;is author of the seminal text&nbsp;</span><a href="http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B00E32I8HI/ref=as_li_tl?ie=UTF8&amp;camp=1789&amp;creative=390957&amp;creativeASIN=B00E32I8HI&amp;linkCode=as2&amp;tag=nabobsnet-20&amp;linkId=FYDJKCKMTIOB433D" style="font-family: Alike, serif; font-style: normal;">Terror in the Name of God: Why Religious Militants Kill</a><span style="font-family: Alike, serif; font-style: normal;">. J.M. Berger is author of the definitive book on American jihadists,&nbsp;</span><a href="http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/1597976938/ref=as_li_tl?ie=UTF8&amp;camp=1789&amp;creative=390957&amp;creativeASIN=1597976938&amp;linkCode=as2&amp;tag=nabobsnet-20&amp;linkId=FYLXRZFAJYBRTZD6" style="font-family: Alike, serif; font-style: normal;">Jihad Joe: Americans Who Go to War in the Name of Islam</a><span style="font-family: Alike, serif; font-style: normal;">.&nbsp;</span><br style="font-family: Alike, serif; font-style: normal;" /><br style="font-family: Alike, serif; font-style: normal;" /><b style="font-family: Alike, serif; font-style: normal;"><a href="http://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2015/03/isis-and-the-foreign-fighter-problem/387166/">Read an excerpt in The Atlantic</a>&nbsp;|&nbsp;<a href="https://soundcloud.com/harperaudio_us/isis_stern">Listen to an audiobook excerpt</a><br /><br /><a href="http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/0062395548/ref=as_li_tl?ie=UTF8&amp;camp=1789&amp;creative=390957&amp;creativeASIN=0062395548&amp;linkCode=as2&amp;tag=nabobsnet-20&amp;linkId=5L5A7V5ESBJGYELG">Buy it now!</a>&nbsp;|&nbsp;<a href="http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B00NVLS3CM/ref=as_li_tl?ie=UTF8&amp;camp=1789&amp;creative=390957&amp;creativeASIN=B00NVLS3CM&amp;linkCode=as2&amp;tag=nabobsnet-20&amp;linkId=NQR7EGI2RQ53FDLV">Buy the Kindle edition!</a>&nbsp;</b></span><br /><span style="font-style: italic;"><b style="font-family: Alike, serif; font-style: normal;"><br /></b></span><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-ESELOKYyee0/VQJQKCzqa6I/AAAAAAAC7-4/rK6CrTFHvD4/s1600/cover2a.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-ESELOKYyee0/VQJQKCzqa6I/AAAAAAAC7-4/rK6CrTFHvD4/s1600/cover2a.png" /></a></div><span style="font-style: italic;"><span style="font-family: Alike, serif; font-style: normal;"><br /></span></span><br /><div class="blogger-post-footer"><p><a href="http://intelwire.egoplex.com/press.html">Media contact for this post</a> | <a href="http://intelwire.egoplex.com/sourcebooks.html">INTELWIRE Sourcebooks for Journalists</a> | <a href="http://multifacetedmedia.com/">(C) 2010, Mulitfaceted Media Group</a></p></div>Adminnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9059086381162172476.post-40735495427785276632015-03-06T07:21:00.002-08:002015-03-06T07:43:30.108-08:00INTELWIRE Weekly Brief 03/06/2015<b>NEW FROM J.M BERGER: ISIS TWITTER CENSUS&nbsp;</b><br /><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-fNitWkLwK3M/VPnGv45oODI/AAAAAAAC738/A7F_oRkm1TU/s1600/isiscensus.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-fNitWkLwK3M/VPnGv45oODI/AAAAAAAC738/A7F_oRkm1TU/s1600/isiscensus.png" height="279" width="320" /></a></div><br /><br /><a href="http://www.brookings.edu/~/media/research/files/papers/2015/03/isis-twitter-census-berger-morgan/brookings-analysis-paper_jm-berger_final_web.pdf">The ISIS Twitter census: Defining and describing the population of ISIS supporters on Twitter</a><br /><br />Although much ink has been spilled on ISIS’s activity on Twitter, very basic questions about the group’s social media strategy remain unanswered. In a new analysis paper, J.M. Berger and Jonathon Morgan answer fundamental questions about how many Twitter users support ISIS, who and where they are, and how they participate in its highly organized online activities. This unprecedented study provides data derived from tens of thousands of ISIS supporting accounts on Twitter, as well as a look at the impact of suspensions on the network.<br /><br /><b>ISIS; THE STATE OF TERROR SHIPS THURSDAY</b><br /><br /><a href="http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/0062395548/ref=as_li_tl?ie=UTF8&amp;camp=1789&amp;creative=390957&amp;creativeASIN=0062395548&amp;linkCode=as2&amp;tag=nabobsnet-20&amp;linkId=5L5A7V5ESBJGYELG" target="_blank">ISIS: The State of Terror</a>, the new book from Jessica Stern and J.M. Berger, will go on sale Thursday on Amazon.com and at bookstores everywhere!<br /><br />"By far the most important contribution yet to our understanding of an organization that remains cloaked in mystery and misunderstanding..." -- <i>Reza Aslan&nbsp;</i><br /><br />"Stern and Berger write clearly and persuasively and marshal impressive primary research from ISIS's prodigious propaganda to explain how ISIS became the dominant jihadi group today. It's a terrific and important read." -- <i>Peter Bergen</i><br /><br />For more advance comment on the book, <a href="http://jmberger.egoplex.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>, or order today in <a href="http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/0062395548/ref=as_li_tl?ie=UTF8&amp;camp=1789&amp;creative=390957&amp;creativeASIN=0062395548&amp;linkCode=as2&amp;tag=nabobsnet-20&amp;linkId=5L5A7V5ESBJGYELG" target="_blank">hardcover</a>, <a href="http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B00NVLS3CM/ref=as_li_tl?ie=UTF8&amp;camp=1789&amp;creative=390957&amp;creativeASIN=B00NVLS3CM&amp;linkCode=as2&amp;tag=nabobsnet-20&amp;linkId=NQR7EGI2RQ53FDLV" target="_blank">Kindle</a>&nbsp;or <a href="http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B00RAY8XNK/ref=as_li_tl?ie=UTF8&amp;camp=1789&amp;creative=390957&amp;creativeASIN=B00RAY8XNK&amp;linkCode=as2&amp;tag=nabobsnet-20&amp;linkId=62IXEDFBUU6FYDZ7" target="_blank">Audible</a>&nbsp;or <a href="http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/1481532731/ref=as_li_tl?ie=UTF8&amp;camp=1789&amp;creative=390957&amp;creativeASIN=1481532731&amp;linkCode=as2&amp;tag=nabobsnet-20&amp;linkId=7KITRBPIALPWQXRT" target="_blank">audiobook</a>&nbsp;format.<br /><br /><b>FEATURED REPORT&nbsp;</b><br /><br /><a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2015/03/06/world/europe/two-outcomes-similar-paths-radical-muslim-and-neo-nazi.html?smid=tw-share">Same Anger, Different Ideologies: Radical Muslim and Neo-Nazi</a><br />Religious ideology plays a central role in the radicalization of young Muslim Europeans currently being lured to join the Islamic State or kill in the group’s name at home. But the psychological process underlying radicalization is remarkably universal, terrorism experts say.<br /><br /><b>RESEARCH HIGHLIGHTS</b><br /><b><br /></b><a href="http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/17539153.2014.955300#abstract">Live-tweeting terror: a rhetorical analysis of @HSMPress_ Twitter updates during the 2013 Nairobi hostage crisis</a><br />Terrorist organisations have seized an unprecedented opportunity to engage wider audiences with their ideologies and actions. This study aims to develop an understanding of this tactic by analysing its use in the 2013 Westgate Mall hostage crisis. &nbsp;<i>by Rachel Sullivan</i><br /><i><br /></i><a href="http://www.terrorismanalysts.com/pt/index.php/pot/article/view/374/html">Say Terrorist, Think Insurgent: Labeling and Analyzing Contemporary Terrorist Actors</a><br />Recent events are a reminder that the activities of even the most violent terrorist groups such as Al Qaeda or the Islamic State extend beyond the use of terrorist tactics. These actors usually employ classic guerrilla tactics as well, and their overall strategy combines both violent and political means. <i>by&nbsp;</i><i>Assaf Moghadam, Ronit Berger, Polina Beliakova</i><br /><i><br /></i><a href="http://understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/ISIS_Sanctuary_Map_with%20captions_approved_0.pdf">ISIS Sanctuary: March 4, 2015</a><br />ISIS core control zones inside Iraq and Syria have not shifted significantly since anti-ISIS operations began in June 2014, though anti-ISIS forces have cleared ISIS from several of its major frontier positions in Iraq and Syria. &nbsp;<i>by Jessica Lewis McFate</i><br /><div><br /><b>ISIS WATCH</b></div><br /><a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/03/03/us-mideast-crisis-iraq-idUSKBN0LZ10Q20150303">Iraqi forces try to seal off Islamic State around Tikrit</a><br />Thousands of Iraqi soldiers and Shi'ite militiamen sought to seal off Islamic State fighters in Tikrit and nearby towns on Tuesday, the second day of Iraq's biggest offensive yet against a stronghold of the Sunni militants.<br /><br /><a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/03/03/us-mideast-crisis-iraq-idUSKBN0LZ10Q20150303">Iraqi Campaign to Drive ISIS From Tikrit Reveals Tensions With U.S.</a><br />Tensions between Iraq and the United States over how to battle the Islamic State broke into the open on Tuesday, as Iraqi officials declared that they would fight on their own timetable with or without American help, and as United States warplanes conspicuously sat out the biggest Iraqi counteroffensive yet amid concerns over Iran’s prominent role.<br /><br /><a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/03/05/us-usa-security-california-idUSKBN0M02PL20150305?feedType=RSS&amp;feedName=domesticNews">Californian tried to join Islamic State in Syria: prosecutors</a><br />A Southern California man whom prosecutors say sought to travel to Syria last year in a bid to join Islamic State fighters was indicted on federal charges, the Justice Department said on Wednesday.<br /><br /><a href="http://www.euronews.com/2015/03/02/manufacturing-jihad-nicolas-henin-explains-what-he-learned-about-isil/">Manufacturing jihad – Nicolas Hénin explains what he learned about ISIL</a><br />For most people, the attraction of Islamic State is difficult to understand but clearly their violent message is getting across to their followers. Nicolas Hénin is a French journalist who was taken hostage by the group for almost one year.<br /><br /><a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2015/03/03/opinion/against-isis-try-patience.html?smid=tw-share">Against ISIS, Try Patience</a><br />If the United States were to take the lead in the ground war in Iraq and perhaps eventually in Syria by introducing conventional combat forces, we would feed into a radical Islamist narrative that pits the invading armies of the crusader against the committed defenders of Islam. In the process we would only strengthen the appeal and the morale of our enemies, while weakening and demoralizing our friends.<br /><br /><a href="http://news.nationalpost.com/2015/03/01/security-forces-braced-for-terror-attacks-over-canadas-enhanced-profile-before-ottawa-shooting/">Three days before October terror attacks, alarm bells were sounding, intelligence documents show</a><br />Intelligence reports distributed three days before the killing of a uniformed soldier in Quebec last October show that security officials were bracing for just such an attack due to Canada’s “enhanced profile” and the experiences of allies.<br /><br /><a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/03/04/us-mideast-crisis-nusra-insight-idUSKBN0M00GE20150304?irpc=932">Syria's Nusra Front may leave Qaeda to form new entity</a><br />Leaders of Syria's Nusra Front are considering cutting their links with al Qaeda to form a new entity backed by some Gulf states trying to topple President Bashar al-Assad, sources said.<br /><br /><a href="http://www.npr.org/blogs/parallels/2015/03/05/391024563/boko-haram-takes-a-page-from-isis-propaganda-playbook">Boko Haram Takes A Page From ISIS Propaganda Playbook</a><br />In its latest video, Islamist extremists from the Nigerian group Boko Haram display the bodies of two men accused of spying. They have been beheaded. Gone are Boko Haram's occasional grainy videos, replaced by slick productions apparently inspired by the self-proclaimed Islamic State.<br /><br /><br /><span style="font-style: italic;"><br /></span><span style="font-style: italic;">Pre-order <a href="http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/0062395548/ref=as_li_tl?ie=UTF8&amp;camp=1789&amp;creative=390957&amp;creativeASIN=0062395548&amp;linkCode=as2&amp;tag=nabobsnet-20&amp;linkId=5L5A7V5ESBJGYELG">ISIS: The State of Terror</a> by Jessica Stern and J.M. Berger. Buy J.M. Berger's book, <a href="http://amzn.to/ahwBqH">Jihad Joe: Americans Who Go to War in the Name of Islam</a></span> <div class="blogger-post-footer"><p><a href="http://intelwire.egoplex.com/press.html">Media contact for this post</a> | <a href="http://intelwire.egoplex.com/sourcebooks.html">INTELWIRE Sourcebooks for Journalists</a> | <a href="http://multifacetedmedia.com/">(C) 2010, Mulitfaceted Media Group</a></p></div>schhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01951118573237940065noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9059086381162172476.post-13486255253850571892015-02-27T07:59:00.001-08:002015-02-27T13:03:39.701-08:00INTELWIRE Weekly Brief 2/27/2015<b>ISIS TRIES A TWITTER STORM</b><br /><b><br /></b>After some months rocked back on its heels in the face of Twitter crackdown and the suspension of thousands of accounts, ISIS social media workers tried to launch a hashtag campaign to promote ISIS media on Thursday. It didn't work out so well, however, as the group's many enemies decided to crash the party.<br /><br />In a sample of 3,000 tweets taken in the middle of the campaign the most retweeted tweet in Arabic (excluding hashtag aggregators) was a Kurdish tweet attacking ISIS, and the negative tweets soared as the day went on. Similarly, when examining a similar sample on the English hashtag, an American political conservative&nbsp;activist claimed the most retweeted tweet, and a host of other players swamped the tag with rhetorical attacks, memes and photoshops, to the point that actual ISIS content was a very small portion of the activity.<br /><br />All of this came as Twitter launched its latest and largest-yet crackdown on ISIS, obliterating most of its official media distribution team, a large number of the most important accounts, and a substantial number of general supporters. It may be time to retire the "ISIS as unstoppable social media behemoth" trope.<br /><br /><div style="text-align: right;"><i>-- J.M. Berger</i></div><b><br /></b><b>PHOTO OF THE WEEK</b><br /><b><br /></b><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-ubCOgnbu-Do/VPCQZKyX4aI/AAAAAAAC4kk/89b9zqTM8ck/s1600/itsabook.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-ubCOgnbu-Do/VPCQZKyX4aI/AAAAAAAC4kk/89b9zqTM8ck/s1600/itsabook.png" height="320" width="288" /></a></div><b><br /></b>ISIS: The State of Terror is printed, and slowly working its way through warehouses and various systems and into bookstores and onto your front porches. The release date is March 24. <a href="http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/0062395548/ref=as_li_tl?ie=UTF8&amp;camp=1789&amp;creative=390957&amp;creativeASIN=0062395548&amp;linkCode=as2&amp;tag=nabobsnet-20&amp;linkId=5L5A7V5ESBJGYELG" target="_blank">Pre-order the book</a> now. If you need something to fill the hours until then, try <a href="http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/1597976938/ref=as_li_tl?ie=UTF8&amp;camp=1789&amp;creative=390957&amp;creativeASIN=1597976938&amp;linkCode=as2&amp;tag=nabobsnet-20&amp;linkId=FYLXRZFAJYBRTZD6" target="_blank">Jihad Joe: Americans Who Go to War in the Name of Islam</a>, available now.<br /><b><br /></b><b>RESEARCH HIGHLIGHT</b><br /><br /><a href="http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/09546553.2014.985378#abstract?ai=vx&amp;mi=3d59j5&amp;af=R">What Is Domestic Terrorism? A Method for Classifying Events From the Global Terrorism Database</a><br />Domestic terrorism accounts for a vast majority of all attacks, yet it is far less studied than its transnational counterpart.&nbsp;This article seeks to address the problem by proposing a method for refining original Global Terrorism Database (GTD) data into a constructively valid, crossnational domestic terrorism dataset. &nbsp;By Richard E. Berkebile.<br /><br /><b>ISIS WATCH</b><br /><br /><a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/jihadi-john-the-islamic-state-killer-behind-the-mask-is-a-young-londoner/2015/02/25/d6dbab16-bc43-11e4-bdfa-b8e8f594e6ee_story.html">‘Jihadi John’: Islamic State killer is identified as Londoner Mohammed Emwazi</a><br />The world knows him as “Jihadi John,” the masked man with a British accent who has beheaded several hostages held by the Islamic State and who taunts audiences in videos circulated widely online. But his real name, according to friends and others familiar with his case, is Mohammed Emwazi, a Briton from a well-to-do family who grew up in West London and graduated from college with a degree in computer programming.<br /><br /><a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-31646999?ocid=socialflow_twitter">Islamic State: 'Jihadi John''s background typical yet distinct</a><br />The identity of Syria's best-known jihadist is finally out: Mohammed Emwazi, better known as "Jihadi John", has been revealed as a former West London resident. He is middle class and well educated, which chimes with a lot of our research. Radicalisation is not principally driven by poverty or social deprivation.<br /><br /><a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2015/02/27/world/middleeast/more-assyrian-christians-captured-as-isis-attacks-villages-in-syria.html?_r=0">ISIS Onslaught Engulfs Assyrian Christians as Militants Destroy Ancient Art</a><br />The latest to face the militants’ onslaught are the Assyrian Christians of northeastern Syria, one of the world’s oldest Christian communities, some speaking a modern version of Aramaic, the language of Jesus.<br /><br /><a href="http://www.cbsnews.com/news/fbi-arrests-three-men-from-brooklyn-for-allegedly-supporting-isis/">Three men from Brooklyn arrested, charged with supporting ISIS</a><br />Three Brooklyn residents were formally charged Wednesday with providing material support to the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS.)<br /><br /><a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/fear-of-the-islamic-state-spawns-a-renegade-afghan-militia/2015/02/24/2089b406-b091-11e4-827f-93f454140e2b_story.html?wpmk=MK0000203">Fear of the Islamic State spawns a renegade Afghan militia</a><br />Former mujahideen commanders have created Afghanistan’s newest militia — Margh, or “Death,” in the local Dari language.&nbsp;It’s so named because they vow to fight to the end to prevent Syria- and Iraq-based extremists from establishing a foothold in their country.<br /><br /><a href="http://www.mcclatchydc.com/2015/02/25/257826/islamic-state-experts-worry-us.html">Islamic State experts worry U.S. is underestimating fight for Mosul</a><br />U.S. commanders pressing for an attack on Mosul perhaps as early as this spring may be underestimating the importance of the city to its Islamic State occupiers, who are likely to put up a huge fight to retain their control, experts who’ve studied the extremist organization say.<br /><br /><a href="http://abcnews.go.com/US/wireStory/minnesota-teen-pleads-guilty-support-terrorism-29247433">Minnesota teen pleads guilty to conspiring to support Islamic State</a><br />A Minnesota teenager who had been stopped at the airport as he was trying to travel to Syria pleaded guilty Thursday to one count of conspiracy to provide material support to a foreign terrorist organization.<br /><br /><b>TERROR WATCH</b><br /><br /><a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/northamerica/usa/11435662/Documents-from-Osama-bin-Laden-raid-used-in-US-terror-trial.html">Documents from Osama bin Laden raid used in US terror trial</a><br />Al-Qaeda documents recovered from the home of Osama bin Laden tie a Pakistani student to an international plot against Western targets, according to American prosecutors.<br /><br /><a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/02/26/us-afghanistan-blast-idUSKBN0LU08S20150226">Suicide bomb strikes top NATO envoy team in Afghanistan</a><br />A suicide bomber rammed a car laden with explosives into a vehicle belonging to NATO's top envoy in Afghanistan, killing one Turkish soldier and wounding at least one person, Turkish officials said.<br /><br /><a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-31650463">Nigeria Boko Haram: Many killed in bus station bombings</a><br />Bomb attacks have killed at least 32 people in northern Nigeria, amid a wave of violence from Boko Haram militants.<br /><br /><div style="text-align: right;"><i>-- INTELWIRE Staff&nbsp;</i></div><br /><span style="font-style: italic;">Pre-order <a href="http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/0062395548/ref=as_li_tl?ie=UTF8&amp;camp=1789&amp;creative=390957&amp;creativeASIN=0062395548&amp;linkCode=as2&amp;tag=nabobsnet-20&amp;linkId=5L5A7V5ESBJGYELG">ISIS: The State of Terror</a> by Jessica Stern and J.M. Berger. Buy J.M. Berger's book, <a href="http://amzn.to/ahwBqH">Jihad Joe: Americans Who Go to War in the Name of Islam</a></span> <div class="blogger-post-footer"><p><a href="http://intelwire.egoplex.com/press.html">Media contact for this post</a> | <a href="http://intelwire.egoplex.com/sourcebooks.html">INTELWIRE Sourcebooks for Journalists</a> | <a href="http://multifacetedmedia.com/">(C) 2010, Mulitfaceted Media Group</a></p></div>schhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01951118573237940065noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9059086381162172476.post-66152146454307812012015-02-20T06:51:00.002-08:002015-02-21T12:39:04.197-08:00INTELWIRE Weekly Brief 2/20/15<b>CONTROVERSY OF THE WEEK</b><br /><br />An <a href="http://www.theatlantic.com/features/archive/2015/02/what-isis-really-wants/384980/" target="_blank">article about ISIS</a> by Graeme Wood in The Atlantic sparked off the latest<br />round of the "Islam and terrorism" debate that has been hanging around since the days of the first World Trade Center bombing. Wood's story emphasizes his view of ISIS as "very Islamic," in his words, and argues to ground an understanding of the group in an Islamic context.<br /><br />On the far opposite end of the spectrum, President Obama for the first time this week discussed his reluctance to use the word "Islamic" to describe Islamic extremism. By his argument, <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2015/02/19/us/politics/faulted-for-avoiding-islamic-labels-white-house-cites-a-strategic-logic.html?partner=rss&amp;emc=rss&amp;smid=tw-nytimesworld">ceding the word 'Islamic'</a>&nbsp;to extremists some how validates their religious claim. This logic was much in the news this week as the White House summoned many Muslims to Washington to discuss mostly Muslim extremism, all without using the word Islamic.<br /><div><br /></div><div>Between these two poles, a forest of op-eds sprang up this week, decrying one or the other approach, mostly on the basis of social issues, specifically who is most offended by which perspective (Muslims by the former, conservatives by the latter, with many others, from experts to lay people, made uncomfortable in varying degrees), although rare spots of nuanced analysis&nbsp;could be found, such as this by&nbsp;<a href="http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/feb/19/when-we-talk-about-radical-islam-what-do-we-mean?CMP=share_btn_tw" target="_blank">H.A. Hellyer</a>.&nbsp;</div><br />My own take on this,&nbsp;<a href="http://www.brookings.edu/blogs/order-from-chaos/posts/2015/02/18-enough-about-islam-berger?cid=00900015020089101US0001-02191">published over at the Brookings Institution</a>, is focused on classification. While there are legitimate social dimensions to this question, which I have written about previously, my focus in this piece pertains to accuracy and targeting. To fight extremism strategically, we need to understand it. And it's extremely important to understand what groups like ISIS believe about religion and how they define themselves. (While this is arguably the point Wood was trying to make in The Atlantic, the phrasing of certain passages contributed greatly to the response the piece received.) <br /><br />Ultimately, the group dynamics that fuel a phenomenon like ISIS can be found in the world of identity-based extremism. I argue in the piece that ISIS has a greater commonality with identity groups from a wide variety of ideologies than it does with mainstream Islamic groups. An overemphasis on situating ISIS within Islam can cloud important strategic issues, including why it is so successful at recruiting and inspiring violence, while simultaneously creating wide opportunities for collateral damage from our anti-ISIS efforts within Muslim communities. <br /><br />It should be noted that my views have evolved on this front. When I first started studying terrorism, I spent a lot of time reading about Islam and trying to understand the context from which I presumed jihadist groups arose. This wasn't a wasted effort, by any means, Islam is certainly not irrelevant to understanding jihadism.<br /><br />But over time I began to see the parallel structures that pervade many extremist movements and ideologies, commonalities that remain even when those groups hate and fear each other. I believe understanding ISIS means first understanding the extremist dynamic that crosses boundaries of race and religion, and then understanding how that dynamic exploits religion to create and reinforce an exclusive identity.<br /><br />If we are going to try to counter the ideology of ISIS, we first need to counter what makes it extreme, not what makes it Islamic (or not). This issue is explored at considerable length in my forthcoming book with Jessica Stern,&nbsp;<a href="http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/0062395548/ref=as_li_tl?ie=UTF8&amp;camp=1789&amp;creative=390957&amp;creativeASIN=0062395548&amp;linkCode=as2&amp;tag=nabobsnet-20&amp;linkId=5L5A7V5ESBJGYELG">ISIS: The State of Terror</a>, and expect more on this in the weeks to come.<br /><div style="text-align: right;"><i><br /></i></div><div style="text-align: right;"><i>-- JMB</i></div><br /><b>CVE SUMMIT</b><br /><br /><a href="http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/143104/humera-khan/why-countering-extremism-fails">Why Countering Extremism Fails</a><br />Globally, there are hundreds of counter extremism programs. But there are very few countries that have programs addressing all four aspects (prevention, intervention, interdiction, and reintegration)—especially intervention and reintegration. As a result of this gap, individuals who have begun to radicalize are not turned around and those who have acted violently are not rehabilitated.<br /><br /><a href="http://www.fpri.org/geopoliticus/2015/02/white-house-cve-summit-what-should-we-expect-more-same-or-new-direction-counter-isis">The White House CVE Summit: More of the same or a new direction?</a><br />America trots out CVE every three years or so in response to the latest atrocity perpetrated in the West by a confused young man inspired by whichever terrorist group has recently grabbed headlines. Properly conducting CVE today requires a simple, narrowly focused strategy that answers three questions: "Where?", "Who?" and "How?"<br /><div><br /></div><div><a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2015/02/20/us/politics/fbi-chief-not-invited-to-meeting-on-extremists.html?referrer=">F.B.I. Chief Not Invited to Meeting on Countering Violent Extremism</a><br />The White House did not invite the most senior American official charged with preventing terrorist attacks — the F.B.I. director, James B. Comey — to the three-day conference this week on countering violent extremism in the United States and abroad because the administration did not want the event too focused on law enforcement issues, according to senior American officials.<br /><br /><a href="http://news.yahoo.com/twitter-under-pressure-to-act-more-aggressively-against-terrorists-230347109.html?soc_src=mediacontentstory&amp;soc_trk=tw">Twitter under pressure to act more aggressively against terrorists</a><br />Twitter, the social media giant, is facing mounting questions from members of Congress and outside groups over the abuse of its network by Islamic State terrorists to spread propaganda and recruit foreign fighters.</div><div><br /></div><b>ISIS WATCH</b><br /><br /><a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2015/02/15/world/middleeast/islamic-state-sprouting-limbs-beyond-mideast.html?hp&amp;action=c&amp;_r=0">Islamic State Sprouting Limbs Beyond Its Base</a><br />The Islamic State is expanding beyond its base in Syria and Iraq to establish militant affiliates in Afghanistan, Algeria, Egypt and Libya, American intelligence officials assert, raising the prospect of a new global war on terror.<br /><br /><a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/middle_east/the-islamic-state-caliphate-is-in-danger-of-losing-its-main-supply-route/2015/02/18/eaaabd5a-9045-11e4-a66f-0ca5037a597d_story.html">The Islamic State ‘caliphate’ is in danger of losing its main supply route</a><br />For weeks, U.S.-backed forces have been fighting to oust the Islamic State from key areas of northern Iraq in a series of small-scale battles that could have an enormous impact on the group’s “caliphate.” A major prize in the clashes is a highway that serves as a lifeline for the Islamic State. It runs from the group’s Iraq stronghold in Mosul to its enclaves in northeastern Syria, including its self-styled capital, Raqqa, 300 miles away.<br /><br /><a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2015/02/17/world/middleeast/isis-egypt-libya-airstrikes.html?utm_source=Sailthru&amp;utm_medium=email&amp;utm_term=%2ASituation%20Report&amp;utm_campaign=Sit%20Rep%20February%2017%202015&amp;_r=0">Egypt Launches Airstrike in Libya Against ISIS Branch</a><br />Egypt conducted an airstrike against an Islamist stronghold in Libya on Monday in retaliation for the beheading of at least a dozen Egyptian Christians by a local franchise of the Islamic State, in Cairo’s deepest reach yet into the chaos that has engulfed its neighbor.<br /><br /><a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/02/15/us-mideast-crisis-iraq-foreignfighters-idUSKBN0LJ0LI20150215">Westerners join Iraqi Christian militia to fight Islamic State</a><br />Thousands of foreigners have flocked to Iraq and Syria in the past two years, mostly to join Islamic State, but a handful of idealistic Westerners are enlisting as well, citing frustration their governments are not doing more to combat the ultra-radical Islamists or prevent the suffering of innocents.<br /><br /><b>TERROR WATCH</b><br /><br /><a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2015/02/20/world/europe/after-attacks-denmark-hesitates-to-blame-islam.html">After Attacks, Denmark Hesitates to Blame Islam</a><br />Omar Abdel Hamid El-Hussein’s journey from drug-addled street thug to self-proclaimed jihadist declaring loyalty to the Islamic State has stirred soul-searching in liberal-minded Denmark over whether Islam, in fact, was really a prime motivator for his violence, or merely served as a justifying cover for violent criminality.<br /><br /><a href="http://foreignpolicy.com/2015/02/19/irans-shiite-militias-are-running-amok-in-iraq/">Iran’s Shiite Militias Are Running Amok in Iraq</a><br />The United States is now acting as the air force, the armory, and the diplomatic cover for Iraqi militias that are committing some of the worst human rights abuses on the planet. These are “allies” that are actually beholden to our strategic foe, the Islamic Republic of Iran, and which often resort to the same vile tactics as the Islamic State itself.<br /><br /><a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2015/02/19/world/africa/nigerias-army-drives-boko-haram-from-garrison-town.html?ref=world&amp;utm_source=Sailthru&amp;utm_medium=email&amp;utm_term=%2ASituation%20Report&amp;utm_campaign=Sit%20Rep%20February%2019%202015">In Nigeria, Boko Haram Loses Ground to Chadians</a><br />Chad’s army has made its deepest push yet into Nigeria in a three-front regional war against Boko Haram, entering a town 50 miles from a beleaguered Nigerian state capital that has been surrounded for months by the militant group, Nigerian security officials said Wednesday.<br /><br /><a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/middle_east/houthi-rebels-in-yemen-eye-oil-rich-province-sparking-fears-of-all-out-civil-war/2015/02/14/90da6aa2-b226-11e4-bf39-5560f3918d4b_story.html?utm_source=Sailthru&amp;utm_medium=email&amp;utm_term=%2ASituation%20Report&amp;utm_campaign=Sit%20Rep%20February%2017%202015">Houthi rebels in Yemen eye oil-rich province, sparking fears of all-out civil war</a><br />The Shiite insurgents who have toppled Yemen’s government are threatening to take over a key oil-producing province to the east of the capital, triggering fears that the country could explode in all-out civil war.<br /><br /><div style="text-align: right;"><i>-- by INTELWIRE Staff</i></div><br /><span style="font-style: italic;">Pre-order <a href="http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/0062395548/ref=as_li_tl?ie=UTF8&amp;camp=1789&amp;creative=390957&amp;creativeASIN=0062395548&amp;linkCode=as2&amp;tag=nabobsnet-20&amp;linkId=5L5A7V5ESBJGYELG">ISIS: The State of Terror</a> by Jessica Stern and J.M. Berger. Buy J.M. Berger's book, <a href="http://amzn.to/ahwBqH">Jihad Joe: Americans Who Go to War in the Name of Islam</a></span> <div class="blogger-post-footer"><p><a href="http://intelwire.egoplex.com/press.html">Media contact for this post</a> | <a href="http://intelwire.egoplex.com/sourcebooks.html">INTELWIRE Sourcebooks for Journalists</a> | <a href="http://multifacetedmedia.com/">(C) 2010, Mulitfaceted Media Group</a></p></div>schhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01951118573237940065noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9059086381162172476.post-31978128566219843582015-02-13T06:07:00.000-08:002015-02-22T08:02:52.339-08:00INTELWIRE Weekly Brief, 2/13/2015<b>VIDEO OF THE WEEK </b><br /><br /><center><iframe frameborder="0" height="352" scrolling="no" src="http://www.ustream.tv/embed/recorded/58691794?v=3&amp;wmode=direct" style="border: 0px none transparent;" width="480"> </iframe><br /><a href="http://www.ustream.tv/" style="font-size: 12px; font-weight: normal; line-height: 20px; text-align: left;" target="_blank">Broadcast live streaming video on Ustream</a></center><br /><a href="http://homeland.house.gov/hearing/hearing-countering-violent-islamist-extremism-urgent-threat-foreign-fighters-and-homegrown">House CVE/Foreign Fighter Hearing Testimony</a><br />On Wednesday, the House Committee on Homeland Security held a hearing on countering violent extremism, foreign fighters, and homegrown terrorism. Francis Taylor from the Department of Homeland Security, Nicholas Rasmussen from the National Counterterrorism Center, and Michael Steinbach from the FBI gave statements on foreign fighters, ISIS, Al Qaeda, and the CVE efforts of their agencies.<br /><br />Highlights of the testimony included increases to the official estimate of foreign fighters in Iraq and Syria from a high of about 19,000 to a low of about 19,000. The current estimate of Americans who have traveled or attempted to travel to Iraq and Syria was upgraded to 150, one of a large number of highly inconsistent and likely unreliable estimates that have emanated from the administration over the last several months. <br /><br /><b>ISIS WATCH</b><br /><br /><a href="http://www.cnn.com/2015/02/11/europe/isis-boumeddiene-magazine/index.html">ISIS magazine claims Hayat Boumeddiene is in Syria</a><br />The widow of Paris kosher supermarket gunman Amedy Coulibaly has linked up with ISIS, the terror group claims. The second issue of an ISIS French language magazine, which began circulating on pro-ISIS Twitter accounts Wednesday, contains a purported two-page question-and-answer story with Hayat Boumeddiene, who is believed to have disappeared into Syria before the January 9 attack.<br /><br /><a href="http://www.jamestown.org/programs/tm/single/?tx_ttnews%5Btt_news%5D=43510&amp;tx_ttnews%5BbackPid%5D=26&amp;cHash=2b80824cf4d9176aaef1f8b310a12d9a#.VNn_TB43kGt.twitter">Spreading Tentacles: The Islamic State in Bangladesh</a><br />Growing evidence suggests that the influence of the Islamic State organization has reached the South Asian, Muslim-majority country of Bangladesh. The Islamic State’s self-proclaimed caliphate and the promise of its leader, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, to return to all Muslims their “dignity, might, rights and leadership” seem to have infused a renewed Islamist fervor within a section of Bangladeshi youths and among existing radical elements.<br /><br /><a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/us-believes-kayla-mueller-hostage-of-islamic-state-is-dead/2015/02/10/76eef7f0-b12e-11e4-886b-c22184f27c35_story.html">Kayla Mueller, American hostage of the Islamic State, is confirmed dead</a><br />The U.S. government has confirmed that Kayla Mueller, a 26-year-old American woman held hostage by the Islamic State in Syria, was killed, reaching that conclusion after the group sent pictures of her body to her family.<br /><br /><a href="http://www.wsj.com/video/exposing-isis-activists-risk-death-to-track-extremists/8940136C-76BD-48E2-B185-77CB4C190798.html">Exposing ISIS: Activists Risk Death to Track Extremists</a><br />In an interview with The Wall Street Journal, one of the founders of an activist group that secretly operates inside ISIS's home base talks about how they risk their lives to get the story out.<br /><br /><a href="http://warontherocks.com/2015/02/how-the-islamic-state-makes-sure-you-pay-attention-to-it/">How the Islamic State makes sure you pay attention to it</a><br />Very deliberately, IS goes about formulating its propaganda in a manner that maximizes the international community’s abhorrence for its actions. Disgust is no by-product.<br /><br /><a href="http://www.middleeasteye.net/news/pride-and-jihad-latest-recruitment-children-942144901#sthash.x2pzOzdi.uxfs">‘Pride and jihad’ IS issues latest recruitment call to children</a><br />Local sources in the provinces of Anbar and Ninevah in western and northern Iraq confirmed on Friday that the Islamic State has launched its biggest recruitment operation since 2012, focusing on children aged as young as 13.<br /><br /><a href="http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/nationworld/chi-islamic-state-commander-killed-20150209-story.html">Islamic State commander killed in drone strike, Afghanistan says</a><br />The top recruiter for the Islamic State group's affiliate in Afghanistan was killed by a drone strike Monday along with at least four other militants, local officials said, marking the first such attack on the extremist group in a volatile country where it has a small but growing following.<br /><br /><br /><b>TERROR WATCH</b><br /><br /><a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2015/02/13/world/middleeast/al-qaeda-yemen-military.html?ref=world&amp;_r=0">U.N. Warns That Yemen May Collapse as Qaeda Fighters Make Big Gains</a><br />Fighters from Al Qaeda captured the headquarters of a Yemeni Army brigade on Thursday, as the United Nations issued a dire new warning that Yemen was headed toward disintegration.<br /><br /><a href="http://www.france24.com/en/20150208-france-detains-six-suspected-jihadi-network/">France detains six from suspected jihadi network</a><br />French authorities in southwest France on Sunday detained six people suspected of involvement in a jihadi network. The Sunday morning sweep around the cities of Toulouse and Albi was the latest of several targeting suspected radicals since last month's terror attacks.<br /><br /><a href="http://news.yahoo.com/bosnian-immigrants-plead-not-guilty-terror-financing-case-234149197.html">Bosnian immigrants plead not guilty in terror financing case</a><br />An immigrant couple from Bosnia pleaded not guilty Wednesday to federal charges of funneling money and military supplies to extremist groups in Iraq and Syria.&nbsp;Ramiz Hodzic, 40, and his wife, 35, are among six Bosnian immigrants living in the U.S. who were charged last week with conspiring to provide material support to groups the U.S. deems terrorist organizations, including Islamic State and Nusra Front, an al-Qaida-affiliated rebel group.<br /><br /><a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2015/02/11/world/africa/niger-sending-troops-to-fight-boko-haram.html?utm_source=Sailthru&amp;utm_medium=email&amp;utm_term=%2ASituation%20Report&amp;utm_campaign=Sit%20Rep%20February%2011%202015&amp;_r=1">Niger Adds Its Troops to the War on Boko Haram</a><br />With the regional war against the Boko Haram militant group widening, Niger’s Parliament has agreed to send troops across the border to join the fight.<br /><br /><a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-31166062">British jihadist Imran Khawaja jailed for 12 years</a><br />A British jihadist who travelled to Syria then faked his own death to try to return to the UK undetected has been given a 12-year custodial sentence.<br /><br /><a href="http://foreignpolicy.com/2015/02/09/is-china-making-its-own-terrorism-problem-worse-uighurs-islamic-state/?utm_source=Sailthru&amp;utm_medium=email&amp;utm_term=%2ASituation%20Report&amp;utm_campaign=Sit%20Rep%20February%209%202015">Is China Making Its Own Terrorism Problem Worse?</a><br />It’s likely that the rise of the Islamic State has given a­ few disenfranchised young Uighurs a cause to fight and potentially die for. Still, experts say any increase in Uighur extremism is largely due to the fact that the very policies China says are meant to combat terrorism have actually made the threat worse.<br /><br /><br /><span style="font-style: italic;">Pre-order <a href="http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/0062395548/ref=as_li_tl?ie=UTF8&amp;camp=1789&amp;creative=390957&amp;creativeASIN=0062395548&amp;linkCode=as2&amp;tag=nabobsnet-20&amp;linkId=5L5A7V5ESBJGYELG">ISIS: The State of Terror</a> by Jessica Stern and J.M. Berger. Buy J.M. Berger's book, <a href="http://amzn.to/ahwBqH">Jihad Joe: Americans Who Go to War in the Name of Islam</a></span> <div class="blogger-post-footer"><p><a href="http://intelwire.egoplex.com/press.html">Media contact for this post</a> | <a href="http://intelwire.egoplex.com/sourcebooks.html">INTELWIRE Sourcebooks for Journalists</a> | <a href="http://multifacetedmedia.com/">(C) 2010, Mulitfaceted Media Group</a></p></div>schhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01951118573237940065noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9059086381162172476.post-88211384344655210432015-02-06T05:03:00.005-08:002015-02-22T08:02:52.361-08:00INTELWIRE Weekly Brief, 2/6/2015In the wake of the so-called Islamic State's latest atrocity, the <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2015/02/06/world/middleeast/us-sends-search-and-rescue-helicopters-to-northern-iraq.html?mabReward=R7" target="_blank">horrific death by fire</a> inflicted on Jordanian pilot Muath al-Kasaesbeh, a now-familiar refrain began to circulate through the media: "ISIS has miscalculated, and the backlash against this video may be its undoing."<br /><br />Variations on this statement have been heard for months and months, appearing like clockwork with each iteration of ISIS's graphically violent propaganda. It was an understandable opinion last year, when ISIS was releasing videos of prisoners being forced to dig their own graves before being executed. By the time the James Foley video came out in the summer, it should have been clear that the backlash was not something ISIS had omitted from its calculations, but an integral part of the effect it was trying to achieve.<br /><br />Nevertheless, many people, including myself at times, have reached for this comforting, if wrong, formulation. When ISIS executed British aid worker Alan Henning, everyone solemnly proclaimed that this time ISIS had gone too far, miscalculated and the backlash would devastate them. When they killed American Abdul Rahman Kassig, a convert to Islam, everyone lined up to say this time ISIS had gone too far, miscalculated and the backlash would devastate them.<br /><br />When ISIS publicizes its inhuman horrors, its goal is to infuriate and horrify its enemies, to create divisions within the coalition fighting it, and to draw more and more countries ever deeper into the conflict. The "gone too far" theme may be reassuring, but it's dangerous. We shouldn't be congratulating ourselves for reacting to ISIS propaganda exactly as ISIS intends.<br /><br /><div style="text-align: right;"><i>-- JMB</i></div><br /><b>RESEARCH HIGHLIGHTS</b><br /><br />While ISIS once again dominated the headlines (its strongest asset as a terrorist group), It was a strong week in research on the broader but often less covered aspects of the Syrian war:<br /><br /><a href="https://www.washingtoninstitute.org/uploads/Documents/pubs/PolicyFocus138_Smyth-2.pdf"><b>The Shiite Jihad in Syria and Its Regional Effects</b></a><br />The web of Iran-backed Shiite proxies is exceedingly complex, with much overlap and many changing aliases. In this new Institute study, Phillip Smyth -- a prominent blogger and University of Maryland researcher -- deftly navigates these many groups, exploring topics such as the narrative of pan-Shiite jihad, the range of Shiite clerical views on the jihad, recruitment techniques, and weapons used. His discussion compellingly shows why pursuing U.S. regional interests must involve targeting not only ISIS but also its Shiite adversaries.<br /><br /><b><a href="https://www2.fireeye.com/WEB-2015RPTSyriaFrontLines.html" target="_blank">Behind the Syrian Conflict's Digital Front Lines</a></b><br />Physical conflicts increasingly have a cyber element to them. This report highlights how Syrian opposition forces fell victim to a well-executed hacking operation targeting secret communications and plans.&nbsp;FireEye researchers uncovered these stolen documents as part of our ongoing threat research. Between at least November 2013 and January 2014, the hackers stole a cache of critical documents and Skype conversations revealing the Syrian opposition’s strategy, tactical battle plans, supply needs, and troves of personal information and chat sessions belonging to the men fighting against Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s forces. While we do not know who conducted this hacking operation, if this data was acquired by Assad’s forces or their allies it could confer a distinct battlefield advantage.<div><br /><a href="http://psycnet.apa.org/journals/lhb/39/1/23.pdf" target="_blank"><b>A False Dichotomy? Mental Illness and Lone-Actor Terrorism</b></a><br />Emily Corner and Paul Gill University College London test whether significant differences in mental illness exist in a matched sample of lone- and group-based terrorists and whether there are distinct behavioral differences between lone-actor terrorists with and without mental illness.The odds of a lone-actor terrorist having a mental illness is 13.49 times higher than the odds of a group actor having a mental illness. Lone actors who were mentally ill were 18.07 times more likely to have a spouse or partner who was involved in a wider movement than those without a history of mental illness. Those with a mental illness were more likely to have a proximate upcoming life change, more likely to have been a recent victim of prejudice, and experienced proximate and chronic stress. The results identify behaviors and traits that security agencies can utilize to monitor and prevent lone-actor terrorism events.<br /><br /></div><b>ISIS WATCH</b><br /><br /><a href="http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/142851/clint-watts/the-microsoft-of-terrorism#cid=soc-twitter-at-snapshot-the_microsoft_of_terrorism-000000"><b>The Microsoft of Terrorism: Al Qaeda Loses Touch</b></a><br />Put simply, al Qaeda’s traditionally preeminent position in the jihadi hierarchy, long on the wane, is slipping still further. U.S. officials, for their part, are increasingly focused on the Islamic State, or ISIS, which continues to deliver a steady flow of battlefield victories and brutal beheadings. Yet al Qaeda has a clear path back to contention: a dramatic follow-up to the Hebdo attack. And with the group’s need for a win so great, Washington would be mistaken to count it out.<br /><div><br /></div><a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/slain-pilots-father-expect-us-jordan-to-take-revenge-on-islamic-state-militants/2015/02/04/b5c96b50-abe7-11e4-9c91-e9d2f9fde644_story.html?hpid=z1&amp;utm_source=Sailthru&amp;utm_medium=email&amp;utm_term=%2ASituation%20Report&amp;utm_campaign=Sit%20Rep%20February%205%202015"><b>After Jordanian pilot’s death, king signals he will escalate fight against Islamic State</b></a><br />Jordan’s King Abdullah II vowed Wednesday that his military forces would hit Islamic State militants with “relentless” strikes upon “their own homes,” an escalation that could place Jordan in the middle of the Syrian civil war.<br /><br /><a href="http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/E/EU_LEAVING_ISLAMIC_STATE_ABRIDGED?SITE=AP&amp;SECTION=HOME&amp;TEMPLATE=DEFAULT&amp;CTIME=2015-02-03-09-34-09"><b>Reluctant Islamic State fighters choose between death, jail</b></a><br />While foreigners from across the world have joined the Islamic State militant group, some find day-to-day life in Iraq or Syria much more austere and violent than they had expected. These disillusioned new recruits also soon discover that it is a lot harder to leave than to join. The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights says the Islamic State group has killed 120 of its own members in the past six months, most of them foreign fighters hoping to return home.<br /><br /><a href="http://www.wsj.com/articles/in-islamic-state-stronghold-of-raqqa-foreign-fighters-dominate-1423087426"><b>In Islamic State Stronghold of Raqqa, Foreign Fighters Dominate</b></a><br />In Islamic State’s de facto capital of Raqqa, a Syrian city on the banks of the Euphrates, few Syrians hold positions of power these days. Running the show, residents say, are the thousands of foreigners who have converged there to establish an Islamic utopia they believe will soon conquer the planet.<br /><div><br /><a href="http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2015-02-04/islamic-state-tightens-its-grip-on-shaky-libya"><b>Islamic State Tightens Its Grip on Shaky Libya</b></a><br /><div>The U.S. war against Islamic State has not yet extended to Libya. But the terror group is rapidly expanding its presence and activities there, and the embattled government is asking for Washington to include Libya in its international fight against the Islamic extremists.<br /><br /><a href="http://www.stripes.com/news/middle-east/westerners-join-kurds-fighting-islamic-state-group-in-iraq-1.327668"><b>Westerners join Kurds fighting Islamic State group in Iraq</b></a><br />As Kurdish fighters gathered around a fire in this damp, frigid mountain town in northwestern Iraq, exhausted from battling the Islamic State group, a surprising recruit wearing a tactical vest with the words "Christ is Lord" scribbled on it joined them. The fighter, with a sniper rifle slung over his shoulder and a Rambo-styled bandanna around his head, is 28-year-old Jordan Matson from Sturtevant, Wisconsin, a former U.S. Army soldier who joined the Kurds to fight the extremist group now holding a third of Iraq and neighboring Syria.</div><br /><a href="http://www.cnn.com/2015/02/03/intl_world/amanpour-didier-francois/index.html"><b>ISIS captors cared little about religion, says former hostage</b></a><br />A French journalist's ISIS captors cared little about religion, Didier Francois -- who spent over 10 months as the group's prisoner in Syria -- told CNN's Christiane Amanpour in an exclusive interview on Tuesday.<br /><br /><br /><b>TERROR WATCH</b><br /><br /><a href="http://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/menasource/declaring-war-on-radical-islam-is-not-a-counterterrorism-strategy#.VNKLe9o9iXc.email"><b>Declaring War on Radical Islam Is Not a Counterterrorism Strategy</b></a><br />Some members of Congress and noisy portions of the media and blogosphere are vexed by President Barack Obama’s refusal to declare war on “radical Islam.” Their distress seemed to be only exacerbated by the President’s measured and sensible response to Fareed Zakaria during a CNN interview last Sunday when asked, “Are we in a war with radical Islam?” The President’s response, worth rereading in full, was just what it should be: a serious discussion with the American people about a complex problem with no easy solutions, including a clear explanation of why terminology can be dangerous.<br /><br /><b><a href="http://www.wsj.com/articles/yemen-political-limbo-deepens-as-negotiations-fail-1423083709?mod=%3C%25mst.param%28LINKMODPREFIX%29&amp;utm_source=Sailthru&amp;utm_medium=email&amp;utm_term=%2ASituation%20Report&amp;utm_campaign=Sit%20Rep%20February%205%202015">Yemen Political Limbo Deepens as Negotiations Fail</a></b><br />The country fell deeper into political limbo on Wednesday after rival Yemeni factions missed a deadline to agree on a new governmental setup in the wake of President Abed Rabbo Mansour Hadi’s January resignation.<br /><br /><a href="http://www.news24.com/Africa/News/Boko-Haram-goes-on-rampage-20150204-2?utm_source=Sailthru&amp;utm_medium=email&amp;utm_term=%2ASituation%20Report&amp;utm_campaign=Sit%20Rep%20February%205%202015"><b>Boko Haram goes on rampage</b></a><br />Nigerian Boko Haram fighters went on the rampage in the Cameroonian border town of Fotokol on Wednesday, massacring civilians and torching a mosque before being repelled by regional forces.<br /><br /><a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2015/02/06/world/africa/boko-haram-refugees-recount-brutality-and-random-killings-in-nigerias-north.html?smid=tw-nytimes"><b>Boko Haram Refugees Recount Brutality and Random Killings in Nigeria’s North</b></a><br /><div>Refugees flocking into this besieged provincial capital describe a grim world of punishment, abduction and death under Boko Haram in the Islamist quasi state it has imposed in parts of northern Nigeria.<br /><br /><a href="http://news.yahoo.com/three-dead-mortars-bombard-damascus-state-media-102908494.html"><b>Rebels bombard Damascus, regime responds with air strikes</b></a><br />Syrian rebels fired dozens of mortar rounds at Damascus on Thursday, killing at least five people, with government forces responding with air strikes that killed eight people.&nbsp;At least 63 mortar rounds hit multiple districts of the capital, prompting the closure of Damascus University, the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said.<br /><br /><div style="text-align: right;"><i>-- INTELWIRE STAFF</i></div><span style="font-style: italic;"><br /></span><span style="font-style: italic;">Pre-order <a href="http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/0062395548/ref=as_li_tl?ie=UTF8&amp;camp=1789&amp;creative=390957&amp;creativeASIN=0062395548&amp;linkCode=as2&amp;tag=nabobsnet-20&amp;linkId=5L5A7V5ESBJGYELG">ISIS: The State of Terror</a> by Jessica Stern and J.M. Berger. Buy J.M. Berger's book, <a href="http://amzn.to/ahwBqH">Jihad Joe: Americans Who Go to War in the Name of Islam</a></span> </div></div><div class="blogger-post-footer"><p><a href="http://intelwire.egoplex.com/press.html">Media contact for this post</a> | <a href="http://intelwire.egoplex.com/sourcebooks.html">INTELWIRE Sourcebooks for Journalists</a> | <a href="http://multifacetedmedia.com/">(C) 2010, Mulitfaceted Media Group</a></p></div>schhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01951118573237940065noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9059086381162172476.post-11511997556222087742015-01-30T05:00:00.000-08:002015-02-22T08:02:52.332-08:00INTELWIRE Weekly Brief, 1/30/2015<b>VIDEO OF THE WEEK</b><br /><b><br /></b><b><br /></b><iframe frameborder="0" height="302" scrolling="no" src="http://www.ustream.tv/embed/recorded/58095566?v=3&amp;wmode=direct" style="border: 0px none transparent;" width="480"> </iframe><br /><a href="http://www.ustream.tv/" style="font-size: 12px; font-weight: normal; line-height: 20px; text-align: left;" target="_blank">Broadcast live streaming video on Ustream</a> <b><br /></b><b><br /></b><br />INTELWIRE's J.M. Berger testified before the House Foreign Affairs Subcommittee on Terrorism, Nonproliferation, and Trade about terrorist use of social media. His written testimony <a href="http://docs.house.gov/meetings/FA/FA18/20150127/102855/HHRG-114-FA18-Wstate-BergerJ-20150127.pdf" target="_blank">can be found here</a>. Berger also spoke to <a href="http://www.npr.org/blogs/alltechconsidered/2015/01/29/382435536/pro-isis-messages-create-dilemma-for-social-media-companies?utm_campaign=storyshare&amp;utm_source=twitter.com&amp;utm_medium=social" target="_blank">All Things Considered</a> on the subject.<br /><b><br /></b><b>ISIS WATCH</b><br /><br /><a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/monkey-cage/wp/2015/01/28/the-islamic-states-model/"><b>The Islamic State’s model</b></a><br />The Islamic State announced several months ago that it was “annexing” territory in Algeria (Wilayat al-Jazair), Libya (Wilayat al-Barqah, Wilayat al-Tarabulus and Wilayat al-Fizan), Sinai (Wilayat Sinai), Saudi Arabia (Wilayat al-Haramayn) and Yemen (Wilayat al-Yaman). It is likely that the Islamic State plans to pursue a similar approach in Afghanistan and Pakistan following its announcement of accepting pledges of allegiance from former members of the Afghan and Pakistan Taliban to also try and “annex” territory there under the framework of a new wilayah called “Wilayat Khorasan.”<br /><br /><b><a href="http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2015/01/29/isis-and-boko-haram-s-unholy-online-alliance.html">ISIS and Boko Haram’s Unholy Online Alliance</a></b><br />Boko Haram, which has terrorized Nigeria in its quest to create an Islamic caliphate, appears to mirroring the Islamic State’s online media campaign and potentially laying the groundwork for future coordination between the groups, U.S. government officials and experts told The Daily Beast.<br /><br /><a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2015/01/28/world/middleeast/islamic-state-tripoli-libya-terror-attack.html?smid=nytcore-ipad-share&amp;smprod=nytcore-ipad&amp;_r=1"><b>Group Linked to ISIS Says It’s Behind Assault on Libyan Hotel</b></a><br />Militants claiming allegiance to the Islamic State said they were responsible for an armed assault on a luxury hotel that killed at least eight people here on Tuesday, the most significant in a string of terrorist attacks against Western interests and government institutions in the capital since the ouster of Col. Muammar el-Qaddafi more than three years ago.<br /><br /><a href="http://www.rferl.org/content/chechens-fought-with-islamic-state-regrets/26816150.html"><b>'We Were Conned,' Chechens Who Fought With IS Tell Russian Media</b></a><br />Two Chechens who say they fought with the Islamic State (IS) group have expressed negative attitudes about the militants and say they regret their decisions to go to Syria, according to interviews published by Russian state media.<br /><br /><a href="http://www.janes.com/article/48332/anarchy-leaves-libya-vulnerable-to-expansion-of-islamic-state-affiliates-potentially-threatening-oil-sector#.VMh8DoCSQB0.twitter"><b>Anarchy leaves Libya vulnerable to expansion of Islamic State affiliates, potentially threatening oil sector</b></a><br />A vehicle-borne improvised explosive device (VBIED) was detonated on 27 January outside the Corinthia Hotel in Tripoli. The attack was claimed by the Tripoli <i>wilaya</i> (province) branch of the Islamic State. This report examines the impact of the jihadist's rise on the conflict between the Libyan National Army-backed House of Representatives and the Islamist Libya Dawn-backed General National Congress.<br /><br /><a href="http://www.npr.org/blogs/alltechconsidered/2015/01/29/382435536/pro-isis-messages-create-dilemma-for-social-media-companies?utm_campaign=storyshare&amp;utm_source=twitter.com&amp;utm_medium=social"><b>Pro-ISIS Messages Create Dilemma For Social Media Companies</b></a><br />According to law enforcement officials, ISIS and other terrorist organizations are increasingly adept at using social media to recruit from abroad. Last year alone, the FBI reports, around 20 American citizens were detained trying to travel to Syria to join militants fighting for the so-called Islamic State.<br /><br /><a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/africaandindianocean/egypt/11378633/Dozens-dead-in-Egypts-Sinai-as-Islamists-launch-simultaneous-attacks.html"><b>Dozens dead in Egypt's Sinai as Islamists launch simultaneous attacks</b></a><br />Islamic State-linked militants killed at least 29 people in simultaneous attack around Egypt’s North Sinai region on Thursday night in one of the deadliest attacks on the country’s military for decades.<br /><br /><b>TERROR WATCH</b><br /><br /><a href="http://foreignpolicy.com/2015/01/28/israel-is-the-new-front-in-the-syrian-war/?utm_content=buffer18c9c&amp;utm_medium=social&amp;utm_source=twitter.com&amp;utm_campaign=buffer"><b>Israel Is the New Front in the Syrian War</b></a><br />On the afternoon of Jan. 28, two Israeli soldiers were killed during a Hezbollah missile attack in Shebaa Farms, a disputed strip of land in the Golan Heights abutting southern Lebanon. Israel Defense Forces positions along the border in Mount Hermon were also mortared. Earlier in the day, following a Jan. 27 rocket attack launched into an Israeli section of the Golan, the Israeli Air Force hit Syrian Army artillery positions.<br /><br /><a href="http://america.aljazeera.com/opinions/2015/1/who-is-in-charge-in-yemen.html"><b>Who is in charge in Yemen?</b></a><br />The latest political developments in Yemen — which culminated in the sudden resignation of Prime Minister Khaled Bahah, his Cabinet and President Abd Rabbu Mansour Hadi on Jan. 22 — have left even the most politically consummate Yemenis struggling to put the pieces together.<br /><br /><a href="http://america.aljazeera.com/opinions/2015/1/who-is-in-charge-in-yemen.html"><b>Former Al-Shabab Commander Denounces Terror Group</b></a><br />A former top commander of Somalia's al-Shabab terror group says he has quit the insurgency, renouncing the violence perpetuated by his former comrades.<br /><br /><b>RESEARCH HIGHLIGHT</b><br /><br /><b><a href="http://www.strategicdialogue.org/ISDJ2969_Becoming_Mulan_01.15_WEB.PDF" target="_blank">Becoming Mulan: Female Western Migrants to ISIS</a></b><br />The current flow of foreigners to Syria and Iraq is remarkable not only for its scale, but also for its inclusion of many women. Much has been written about the male fighters who migrate to engage in the conflict there; these fighters are prolific on social media and share details of their day-to-day experiences with supporters and opponents alike. Less, however, is known about the women who travel to join ISIS and support its state-building efforts. The flow of both men and women is a concern for Western governments, who fear that these individuals could pose a threat on return home. The number of Western migrants overall is estimated at 3,000, with as many as 550 of these being women.<br /><br /><div style="text-align: right;"><i>-- By INTELWIRE Staff</i></div><br /><span style="font-style: italic;">Pre-order <a href="http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/0062395548/ref=as_li_tl?ie=UTF8&amp;camp=1789&amp;creative=390957&amp;creativeASIN=0062395548&amp;linkCode=as2&amp;tag=nabobsnet-20&amp;linkId=5L5A7V5ESBJGYELG">ISIS: The State of Terror</a> by Jessica Stern and J.M. Berger. Buy J.M. Berger's book, <a href="http://amzn.to/ahwBqH">Jihad Joe: Americans Who Go to War in the Name of Islam</a></span> <div class="blogger-post-footer"><p><a href="http://intelwire.egoplex.com/press.html">Media contact for this post</a> | <a href="http://intelwire.egoplex.com/sourcebooks.html">INTELWIRE Sourcebooks for Journalists</a> | <a href="http://multifacetedmedia.com/">(C) 2010, Mulitfaceted Media Group</a></p></div>schhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01951118573237940065noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9059086381162172476.post-69638920366121986202015-01-23T07:43:00.000-08:002015-02-22T08:02:52.353-08:00INTELWIRE Weekly Brief, 1/23/2015<span style="font-style: italic;"><b style="font-style: normal;">CHART OF THE WEEK&nbsp;</b></span><br /><span style="font-style: italic;"><b style="font-style: normal;"><br /></b></span><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-hfah_4eLmuM/VMJqbJQ5OcI/AAAAAAAC3-0/ucVEbGpD9e0/s1600/sleeper.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-hfah_4eLmuM/VMJqbJQ5OcI/AAAAAAAC3-0/ucVEbGpD9e0/s1600/sleeper.png" height="347" width="640" /></a></div><span style="font-style: italic;"><b style="font-style: normal;"><br /></b></span>The diagram above (click to enlarge) shows an ISIS "sleeper" agent's network on Twitter. While there are large and identifiable clusters of ISIS supporters online, the sleeper agent (based in Europe) maintained several secretive accounts with only peripheral connections to obvious ISIS supporters.<br /><span style="font-style: italic;"><b style="font-style: normal;"><br /></b></span><span style="font-style: italic;"><b style="font-style: normal;">ISIS WATCH</b></span><br /><div><b></b><br /><a href="http://www.npr.org/blogs/thetwo-way/2015/01/23/379308758/fate-of-japanese-hostages-unclear-after-islamic-states-deadline-lapses?utm_source=twitter.com&amp;utm_campaign=npr&amp;utm_medium=social&amp;utm_term=nprnews" target="_blank"><b>Fate Of Japanese Hostages Unclear After Islamic State's Deadline Lapses</b></a></div><div>The fate of two Japanese hostages threatened with death by the self-styled Islamic State is unclear after the expiration of a 72-hour deadline imposed by the militants for Japan to pay $200 million to secure its citizens' release.<br /><b></b><br /><b><a href="http://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/isis-terror/japanese-twitter-users-mock-isis-internet-meme-n291591" target="_blank">Japanese Mock ISIS with Internet Meme</a></b><br />Japanese Twitter users are defying their country's hostage crisis by mocking ISIS with a nationwide Photoshop battle of satirical images.<br /><br /><a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/01/19/syria-crisis-recruits-idUSKBN0KS1Y220150119?feedType=RSS&amp;feedName=worldNews" style="font-weight: bold;">Peer pressure not propaganda crucial to IS recruitment: experts</a><br /><b></b></div>Peer pressure from radicalised fighters in Syria and Iraq is more influential in attracting new recruits from Europe than Islamic State (IS) propaganda, according to British experts.&nbsp;The International Centre for the Study of Radicalisation and Political Violence (ICSR), in a study to be released next month, found that peer groups and kinships were crucial in luring young fighters, rather than IS videos and Internet messages.<br /><div><br /></div><div><b><a href="http://www.cbsnews.com/news/john-kerry-half-of-isis-leaders-killed-by-iraq-and-allies/">John Kerry: Half of ISIS leaders killed by Iraq and allies</a></b></div><div>Iraq and its allies have made significant gains in battling militants from the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS), killing thousands of fighters and 50 percent of the group's top commanders, U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry said Thursday as an international coalition promised stronger efforts to stop the group and squash the spread of its extremist ideology.<br /><div><b><br /></b></div><div><a href="http://english.alarabiya.net/en/News/world/2015/01/22/Minister-Up-to-10-former-French-soldiers-joined-ISIS.html"><b>A dozen French soldiers joined ISIS: ministry</b></a></div><div>About 10 former French soldiers have joined the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) among the hundreds of French radicals believed to be fighting for the extremist group, France’s defense sources said Wednesday.<br /><div><br /><div><b><a href="http://magharebia.com/en_GB/articles/awi/reportage/2015/01/16/reportage-01">ISIS kills fleeing fighters</a></b></div>"They were looking for paradise, but only found hell." Such is the condition of foreign fighters in Syria, according to a Moroccan analyst. "The Islamic State won't allow them to leave, so they won't be able to tell the world what's really happening." At Agadir Street in Casablanca, people are talking about one local youth who went to Syria to fight for ISIS, only to be killed by the group because he wanted to come home.</div><div><br /><br /></div></div></div><b style="font-style: normal;">TERROR WATCH</b><b><br /></b><br /><br /><b><a href="http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/ct-muslim-youth-outreach-met-20150116-story.html#page=1">Chicago Muslims fight back against militants' recruiting of youths</a></b><br />This month's French tragedy — 17 people killed in attacks sparked by a satirical newspaper's caricatures of the Prophet Muhammad — underscores the importance of how American Muslim parents navigate their children's online curiosity about religion, say local parents, teachers and Islamic leaders.<br /><div><br /></div><div><b><a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-30904382">British Jihadist who faked death admits terror offences</a></b></div><div>A British jihadist who spent six months in Syria and faked his death in an attempt to return to the UK undetected has admitted four terrorism offences.</div><div><br /></div><div><a href="http://www.france24.com/en/20150121-france-europe-eu-unveil-new-anti-terrorism-measures/"><b>Europe to announce new steps to counter terrorism</b></a></div><div>French and European officials will unveil new counter-terrorism measures Wednesday in Brussels, including possible changes to the bloc's Schengen visa-free travel zone, in the wake of the deadly attacks in Paris.</div><div><br /></div><div><a href="http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2015/01/yemen-houthis-obama-administration.html#"><b>US maintains intelligence relationship with Houthis</b></a></div><div>Senior US intelligence official Michael Vickers said Jan. 21 that the United States is continuing attacks on al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) despite ongoing violence in the Yemeni capital, Sanaa, and has an intelligence relationship with the Houthi insurgent group that has seized much of the capital since September.</div><div><br /></div><div><b><a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-30865316">Greece arrests over Belgian 'jihadist terror plot'</a></b></div><div><div>Greek police have arrested several people over alleged links to a suspected terror plot in Belgium. One of the men is alleged to have been in contact with the cell in Verviers, Belgium, where a shootout with police left two suspects dead on Thursday.</div></div><span style="font-style: italic;"><b style="font-style: normal;"><br /></b></span><span style="font-style: italic;"><b style="font-style: normal;">RESEARCH HIGHLIGHTS</b></span><br /><div><span style="font-style: italic;"></span><br /><b><a href="http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/09546553.2014.976625#.VMJoCXQ5COV" target="_blank">Religious versus sacred in extremism</a></b><br />"The popular media and many in academia often overstate the role that religion, and its supposedly unique qualities, has played in recent acts of terror. In this article, the author argues that the notion of religious violence is unhelpful and that there is a more useful concept that we can utilize to draw out the values and ideas that play a role in the move to violence in both religious and secular groups. ... This framework uses the concept of non-negotiable (or “sacred”) beliefs. It is as applicable to secular as it is to religious groups, and can show us much more about how such beliefs can contribute to violence."<br /><br /><b><a href="http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-paris-attacks-are-just-a-few-of-125000-entries-in-the-global-terrorism-database/" target="_blank">Why We Radicalize</a></b><br />University of Maryland researchers aren’t content with the what of terrorism — they want to tackle the why. It’s the same question that has prompted journalists’ detailed explorations of the Paris attackers' paths to radicalization.&nbsp;A team of three full-time staff members at the terrorism center are trying to move beyond anecdote. They've amassed a data set of more than 1,500 people radicalized to violent and non-violent extremism in the United States since World War II and put them into three categories: Islamist, Far Right, and Far Left. The database — which hasn’t been released publicly — has detailed information about the terrorists' lives and backgrounds, including criminal records, social networks and histories of abuse. The researchers believe it's among the first of its kind.<br /><br /><b><a href="http://www.brookings.edu/blogs/markaz/posts/2015/01/15-ambivalent-warriors-isis-poll-anderson#.VLlwBJUBiu4.twitter">Ambivalent Warriors: What Americans Think About the Fight Against ISIS</a></b><br />On January 8, the Brookings Project for U.S. Relations with the Islamic World (IWR) convened a panel of Middle East scholars and political experts to discuss American views on the campaign against the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS). The analysis centered on the findings of a two-part poll uncovering American perspectives on Middle East conflicts. Also from Brookings this week, a report on&nbsp;<a href="http://www.brookings.edu/~/media/research/files/papers/2015/01/us%20islamic%20world%20forum%20publications/empowering%20pakistans%20civil%20society%20to%20counter%20violent%20extremism%20english.pdf" target="_blank">CVE in Pakistan</a>.<br /><br /><div style="text-align: right;"><i>-- By INTELWIRE Staff</i></div><br /><span style="font-style: italic;">Pre-order <a href="http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/0062395548/ref=as_li_tl?ie=UTF8&amp;camp=1789&amp;creative=390957&amp;creativeASIN=0062395548&amp;linkCode=as2&amp;tag=nabobsnet-20&amp;linkId=5L5A7V5ESBJGYELG">ISIS: The State of Terror</a> by Jessica Stern and J.M. Berger. Buy J.M. Berger's book, <a href="http://amzn.to/ahwBqH">Jihad Joe: Americans Who Go to War in the Name of Islam</a></span> </div><div class="blogger-post-footer"><p><a href="http://intelwire.egoplex.com/press.html">Media contact for this post</a> | <a href="http://intelwire.egoplex.com/sourcebooks.html">INTELWIRE Sourcebooks for Journalists</a> | <a href="http://multifacetedmedia.com/">(C) 2010, Mulitfaceted Media Group</a></p></div>schhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01951118573237940065noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9059086381162172476.post-65313075930727671702015-01-15T23:52:00.001-08:002015-02-22T08:02:52.347-08:00INTELWIRE Weekly Brief<b>CHART OF THE WEEK</b><br /><center><script src="//www.google.com/trends/embed.js?hl=en-US&amp;q=Qaeda,+ISIS+Iraq,+ISIS+Syria,+ISIL,+%22Boko+Haram%22&amp;date=5/2014+13m&amp;cmpt=q&amp;tz&amp;tz&amp;content=1&amp;cid=TIMESERIES_GRAPH_0&amp;export=5&amp;w=500&amp;h=330" type="text/javascript"></script></center><span style="font-style: italic;"><b style="font-style: normal;"><br /></b></span><span style="font-style: italic;"><span style="font-style: normal;">Google searches for Boko Haram outnumbered searches for either al Qaeda or ISIS by an almost unbelievable margin, despite the Paris attacks and despite widespread complaints that its recent string of atrocities (below) is not garnering enough media attention. Searches for al Qaeda outstripped searches for ISIS (under its various names) for the first time since June.</span></span><br /><span style="font-style: italic;"><span style="font-style: normal;"><br /></span></span><span style="font-style: italic;"><b style="font-style: normal;">LATEST FROM J.M. BERGER</b></span><br /><br /><span style="font-style: italic;"><b><a href="http://foreignpolicy.com/2015/01/16/europe-cracks-down-terrorism-civil-liberties-after-paris/" style="font-family: Alike, serif; font-style: normal;">Europe's New Crackdown</a><span style="font-family: Alike, serif; font-style: normal;">&nbsp;</span></b><br style="font-family: Alike, serif; font-style: normal;" /><br style="font-family: Alike, serif; font-style: normal;" /><span style="font-family: Alike, serif; font-style: normal;">They can take our lives, but can they also take our freedom? The Charlie Hebdo assault in Paris last week is only the latest chapter in a months-long series of attacks, which built in turn on a yearlong escalation of concerns about the extraordinary number of Europeans traveling to Syria and Iraq to join the Islamic State, al Qaeda's Syrian affiliate, and a host of other jihadi groups.&nbsp;</span></span><br /><span style="font-style: italic;"><b style="font-style: normal;"><br /></b></span><span style="font-style: italic;"><b style="font-style: normal;">RESEARCH HIGHLIGHT</b></span><br /><span style="font-style: italic;"><b style="font-style: normal;"><br /></b></span><b><a href="http://www.brookings.edu/research/papers/2015/01/western-foreign-fighters-in-syria-and-iraq-byman-shapiro" target="_blank">Be Afraid. Be A Little Afraid: The Threat of Terrorism from Western Foreign Fighters in Syria and Iraq</a>&nbsp;</b><br />Many U.S. and European intelligence officials fear that a wave of terrorism will sweep over Europe, driven by the civil war in Syria and continuing instability in Iraq. Many of the concerns stem from the large number of foreign fighters involved. <i>By Daniel Byman and Jeremy Shapiro</i><br /><span style="font-style: italic;"><b style="font-style: normal;"><br /></b></span><span style="font-style: italic;"><b style="font-style: normal;">TERROR WATCH</b></span><br /><span style="font-style: italic;"><b style="font-style: normal;"><br /></b></span><a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-30826582"><b>Nigeria's Boko Haram: Baga destruction 'shown in images'</b></a><br /><div>Satellite images of Nigerian towns attacked by Boko Haram show widespread destruction and suggest a high death toll, Amnesty International says.</div><div><br /><a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2015/01/17/world/europe/europe-arrests-terrorism-links.html?hp&amp;action=click&amp;pgtype=Homepage&amp;module=a-lede-package-region&amp;region=top-news&amp;WT.nav=top-news&amp;_r=0" target="_blank"><b>More Than a Dozen Detained in European Counterterrorism Raids</b></a><br />As European investigators moved on a broad front to sweep up suspected radicals, the Belgian police said on Friday that 13 people had been detained in Belgium and two in France after a shootout in which two men believed to be militants were killed.</div><div></div><br /><span style="font-style: italic;"><b style="font-style: normal;"><a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2015/01/13/world/west-struggles-against-flow-to-war-zones.html?hp&amp;action=click&amp;pgtype=Homepage&amp;module=a-lede-package-region&amp;region=top-news&amp;WT.nav=top-news&amp;_r=0" target="_blank">West Struggles to Halt Flow of Citizens to War Zones</a></b><br style="font-style: normal;" /><span style="font-style: normal;">For more than a decade, Western governments have struggled to stem the flow of their citizens traveling to fight in war zones in Muslim countries.&nbsp;But last week’s commando-style raids in France were deadly reminders that those measures have done relatively little to reduce the threat. The number of people traveling abroad to fight continues to grow, with about 1,000 militant recruits joining the fight in Syria and Iraq each month, according to recent United States government figures.</span></span><br /><div><br /></div><div><a href="http://www.worldaffairsjournal.org/blog/michael-j-totten/isis-africa"><b>The ISIS of Africa</b></a></div>Boko Haram galvanized activists all over the world last year when it kidnapped hundreds of school girls in Nigeria and threatened to sell them into slavery, but hardly a peep has been uttered since the Al Qaeda-linked army massacred as many as 2,000 people near the Chad border last week.<br /><div><br /></div><div><a href="http://time.com/3667663/charlie-hebdo-attack-terrorism-intelligence/"><b>How French Media Missed the <i>Charlie Hebdo</i>&nbsp;Terrorists</b></a></div><div>In the wake of the tragic shootings in Paris, French police and intelligence agencies are being asked to explain why known militants—including one who had visited an al-Qaeda affiliate in Yemen several years ago—were not subject to intense surveillance before they launched last week’s terrorist attack at the offices of a French satirical weekly.</div><div><br /></div><div><b><a href="http://www.cnn.com/2015/01/15/world/belgium-anti-terror-operation/index.html">Belgian operation thwarted 'major terrorist attacks'</a></b><br />A terror cell on the brink of carrying out an attack was the target of a raid Thursday that left two suspects dead, Belgian authorities said.&nbsp;A third suspect was injured and taken into custody in the operation at a building in the eastern city of Verviers, prosecutor's spokesman Thierry Werts told reporters.</div><div><br /></div><div><b><a href="http://www.mcclatchydc.com/2015/01/15/253282/college-considered-booting-al.html">College considered booting al Qaida blogger, FBI records show</a></b><br />A batch of newly released FBI records shows that agents weighed turning a former North Carolina al Qaida propagandist, Samir Khan, into an informant while the community college he attended considered expelling him over possible security threats to other students and faculty.</div><div><br /></div><b><a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2015/01/16/world/europe/french-rein-in-speech-backing-acts-of-terror.html?hp&amp;action=click&amp;pgtype=Homepage&amp;module=first-column-region&amp;region=top-news&amp;WT.nav=top-news">French Rein In Speech Backing Acts of Terror</a></b><br />The French authorities are moving aggressively to rein in speech supporting terrorism, employing a new law to mete out tough prison sentences in a crackdown that is stoking a free-speech debate after last week’s attacks in Paris.<br /><div><span style="font-style: italic;"><br style="font-style: normal;" /><b style="font-style: normal;">ISIS WATCH</b></span><br /><span style="font-style: italic;"><b style="font-style: normal;"><br /></b></span><b><a href="http://www.upi.com/Top_News/World-News/2015/01/08/Islamic-State-group-in-Libya-reportedly-executes-two-Tunisian-journalists/1401420749153/">Islamic State group in Libya reportedly executes two Tunisian journalists</a></b></div><div>Two journalists from Tunisia have reportedly been executed by an Islamic State group in Libya.<b><br /></b><br /><div><br /></div><b><a href="http://news.nationalpost.com/2015/01/13/radicalized-youth-making-pit-stops-to-earn-cash-in-oil-sands-before-joining-extremist-groups-such-as-isis-chief/">Radicalized youth making pit-stops to earn cash in oil-sands before joining extremist groups such as ISIS: chief</a></b></div><div>Before heading abroad to join extremist groups like ISIS, some Canadians have been stopping first in northern Alberta to earn money to finance their terrorist activities, the chief of the Edmonton Police Service told the National Post in an interview.<b><br /></b><br /><div><br /></div><b><a href="http://www.wsj.com/articles/ohio-man-charged-with-plotting-isis-inspired-attack-on-u-s-capitol-1421272998">Ohio Man Charged With Plotting ISIS-Inspired Attack on U.S. Capitol</a></b></div><div>An Ohio man was arrested Wednesday as he neared what authorities say were the final stages of a terror plot to attack the U.S. Capitol with guns and pipe bombs in support of the Islamic State militant group.<b><br /></b><br /><br /><b><a href="http://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2015/jan/14/briton-suspect-us-central-command-twitter-hack-junaid-hussain-tony-blair" target="_blank">Briton Lead Suspect in CENTCOM Twitter Hack</a></b><br />The main suspect in the hacking of the US Central Command is a Briton who spent time in prison for accessing Tony Blair’s personal accounts.&nbsp;Junaid Hussain, who is from Birmingham and is in his early twenties, is believed to be in Syria. Based on what appears to be his Twitter account, he has aligned himself with the jihadi group ISIS.<br /><br />J.M. Berger joined the BBC to discuss the CENTCOM Twitter hack: <br /><br /><center><iframe allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="281" src="//www.youtube.com/embed/xHax73l1soM" width="500">&lt;/center&gt; </iframe><br /><br /><i>-- Compiled by INTELWIRE Staff&nbsp;</i><br /><br /><span style="font-style: italic;">Pre-order <a href="http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/0062395548/ref=as_li_tl?ie=UTF8&amp;camp=1789&amp;creative=390957&amp;creativeASIN=0062395548&amp;linkCode=as2&amp;tag=nabobsnet-20&amp;linkId=5L5A7V5ESBJGYELG">ISIS: The State of Terror</a> by Jessica Stern and J.M. Berger. Buy J.M. Berger's book, <a href="http://amzn.to/ahwBqH">Jihad Joe: Americans Who Go to War in the Name of Islam</a></span> </center></div><div class="blogger-post-footer"><p><a href="http://intelwire.egoplex.com/press.html">Media contact for this post</a> | <a href="http://intelwire.egoplex.com/sourcebooks.html">INTELWIRE Sourcebooks for Journalists</a> | <a href="http://multifacetedmedia.com/">(C) 2010, Mulitfaceted Media Group</a></p></div>schhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01951118573237940065noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9059086381162172476.post-24220927584963891622015-01-14T14:36:00.001-08:002015-01-14T15:17:04.452-08:00DId Zawahiri Order the Hebdo Attack?Did Ayman al Zawahiri order the Charle Hebdo operation? I can't answer that question definitively, although I have my theories.<br /><br />Did AQAP today announce that Zawahiri ordered the operation? That I can answer. Here's <i>exactly</i> what&nbsp;<span style="background-color: white; font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: 15.2000026702881px; line-height: 20.625px;">Nasr al-Ansi,</span><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: 15.2000026702881px; line-height: 20.625px;">&nbsp;the AQAP leader who appeared in the video, said (English translation by AQAP, so if someone wants to comment on the Arabic, hit me up <a href="https://twitter.com/intelwire" target="_blank">on Twitter</a>):</span><br /><blockquote class="tr_bq">We in the Organization of Qa'idatul Jihad in the Arabian Peninsula claim responsibility for this operation as a vengeance for the Messenger of Allah. We clarify to the ummah that the one who chose the target, laid the plan and financed the operation is the leadership of the organization. We did it in compliance with the Command of Allah and supporting His Messenger -- peace be upon him -- then the order of our general amir, the generous sheikh [Ayman al Zawahiri], may Allah preserve him, and following the will of sheikh Osama bin Laden, may Allah have mercy on him. The arrangements with the amir of the operation were made by sheikh Anwar al Awlaki, may Allah have mercy on him...</blockquote>What does this statement say?<br /><br />1) The leadership of AQAP, explicitly, chose the target, laid the plan and financed the operation.<br /><br />2) The plan was carried out "in compliance with" the orders of God and then Zawahiri.<br /><br />I assume we can all agree God probably didn't call up AQAP and say "Go assault the offices of Charlie Hedbo." It was "in compliance with" the command of God, meaning AQAP's interpretation of God's guidelines for life.<br /><br />So if the attack was similarly "in compliance with" the order of Ayman al Zawahiri, that covers a wide range of possible contexts. One of those contexts might be that Zawahiri gave an explicit order to do this specific attack some time in the last five years.<br /><br /><b>UPDATE: </b>Ibn Nabih rings in on Twitter with a comment on the Arabic translation. He says the phrasing is different for Allah versus Zawahiri, with Zawahiri's context being more like "in execution of the order" rather than in compliance. However it doesn't rule out the point above as to how specific the order might have been. <b>END UPDATE</b><br /><br />Another context is that Zawahiri generally ordered AQAP to carry out attacks on the West. Or, for instance, that it was done in compliance with Zawahiri's general <a href="https://azelin.files.wordpress.com/2013/09/dr-ayman-al-e1ba93awc481hirc4ab-22general-guidelines-for-the-work-of-a-jihc481dc4ab22-en.pdf" target="_blank">guidelines for jihad</a>&nbsp;published in 2013.<br /><br />The unambiguous claim that AQAP leadership selected the target stands in sharp contrast to the mealy-mouthed "compliance" with Zawahiri. While it is certainly possible Zawahiri did explicitly order the Charlie Hebdo attack, it is also possible and perhaps most likely that this is a carefully parsed way to give the reputation of al Qaeda Central emir a badly needed boost.<br /><br /><span style="font-style: italic;">Pre-order <a href="http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/0062395548/ref=as_li_tl?ie=UTF8&amp;camp=1789&amp;creative=390957&amp;creativeASIN=0062395548&amp;linkCode=as2&amp;tag=nabobsnet-20&amp;linkId=5L5A7V5ESBJGYELG">ISIS: The State of Terror</a> by Jessica Stern and J.M. Berger. Buy J.M. Berger's book, <a href="http://amzn.to/ahwBqH">Jihad Joe: Americans Who Go to War in the Name of Islam</a></span> <div class="blogger-post-footer"><p><a href="http://intelwire.egoplex.com/press.html">Media contact for this post</a> | <a href="http://intelwire.egoplex.com/sourcebooks.html">INTELWIRE Sourcebooks for Journalists</a> | <a href="http://multifacetedmedia.com/">(C) 2010, Mulitfaceted Media Group</a></p></div>Adminnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9059086381162172476.post-83039759582425352952015-01-06T06:18:00.002-08:002015-01-06T06:19:34.371-08:00A Plague on ISIS's House?There are many scenarios under which the Islamic State (ISIS) defeats itself. We usually focus on the political ones, but recent rumblings out of Syria and Iraq point to the possibility of a medical meltdown.<br /><br />When terrorists and bubonic plague are mentioned in the same sentence, it's usually in a scary story about the still-unrealized threat of biological attacks. But when I read Liz Sly's story a couple weeks ago about <a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/middle_east/the-islamic-state-is-failing-at-being-a-state/2014/12/24/bfbf8962-8092-11e4-b936-f3afab0155a7_story.html" target="_blank">undrinkable water and garbage piling up in the streets</a> in Mosul and Raqqa, I began to wonder whether ISIS and the people living under its cruel regime are more likely to be the victims of a virulent disease than the perpetrators of one.<br /><br />Since then, there have been <a href="http://www.mediaite.com/online/iraqi-official-dismisses-unfounded-reports-that-isis-fighters-have-ebola/" target="_blank">dubious reports of ebola</a> breaking out in ISIS territories and much more credible reports of the return of such <a href="http://www.dailystar.com.lb/News/Middle-East/2015/Jan-06/283210-old-diseases-return-as-syrian-doctors-warn-of-medical-disaster.ashx" target="_blank">legacy diseases as polio and scabies</a>. The conditions in Mosul and Raqqa are rife with the possibility of disease, and <a href="http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2014/11/27/bubonic-plague-is-back-but-it-never-really-left.html" target="_blank">the plague</a> has never truly been eradicated.<br /><span style="font-style: italic;"><br /></span>While the arrival of plague in ISIS territories would have a certain biblical flair and might be the undoing of the so-called caliphate, the victims would extend far beyond ISIS's architects of atrocities to the people who are simply unfortunate enough to live there or who live in adjacent areas.<br /><br />Full-scale outbreaks of plague&nbsp;in the past&nbsp;have also been associated with widespread social breakdown. The question of <a href="http://foreignpolicy.com/2015/01/06/what-comes-after-the-islamic-state-is-defeated/" target="_blank">post-ISIS Iraq and Syria</a> already haunts us. But things could very well get worse.<br /><span style="font-style: italic;"><br /></span><span style="font-style: italic;">Pre-order J.M. Berger's book with Jessica Stern, </span><a href="http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/0062395548/ref=as_li_tl?ie=UTF8&amp;camp=1789&amp;creative=390957&amp;creativeASIN=0062395548&amp;linkCode=as2&amp;tag=nabobsnet-20&amp;linkId=5L5A7V5ESBJGYELG" style="font-style: italic;" target="_blank">ISIS: The State of Terror</a>. <i>Berger's previous book,</i><span style="font-style: italic;">&nbsp;<a href="http://amzn.to/ahwBqH">Jihad Joe: Americans Who Go to War in the Name of Islam</a>, is available now. For more by J.M. Berger, <a href="http://jmberger.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.&nbsp;</span><br /><br /><b>PAST PUBLICATIONS</b><br /><div><ul><li><a href="http://foreignpolicy.com/2014/12/23/the-islamic-states-deranged-irregulars-lone-wolf-terrorists-isis/" target="_blank">The Islamic State's Irregulars</a></li><li><a href="http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2013/09/16/omar_and_me" target="_blank">Omar and Me</a></li><li><a href="https://www.ctc.usma.edu/posts/the-enduring-appeal-of-al-awlaqi%E2%80%99s-%E2%80%9Cconstants-on-the-path-of-jihad%E2%80%9D" target="_blank">The Appeal of Awlaki's "Constants on the Path of Jihad"</a></li><li><a href="http://icsr.info/wp-content/uploads/2013/03/ICSR_Berger-and-Strathearn.pdf" target="_blank">Who Matters Online: Measuring Influence, Evaluating Content and Countering Violent Extremism in Online Social Networks</a></li></ul></div><div class="blogger-post-footer"><p><a href="http://intelwire.egoplex.com/press.html">Media contact for this post</a> | <a href="http://intelwire.egoplex.com/sourcebooks.html">INTELWIRE Sourcebooks for Journalists</a> | <a href="http://multifacetedmedia.com/">(C) 2010, Mulitfaceted Media Group</a></p></div>Adminnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9059086381162172476.post-72084187010901748152014-12-24T08:50:00.001-08:002014-12-24T09:00:19.996-08:00Inspire 13: 100 Percent PerspirationAl Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula put out the 13th issue of its English-language magazine Inspire, with content and timing clearly meant to invoke the specter of its most-mocked attack, the 2009 Christmas Day bombing attempt in which a would-be terrorist wearing an underwear bomb did incredible damage to his own genitalia but failed to take down a plane.<br /><br />Much of the issue is devoted to instructions for a "new" kind of "hidden" bomb that "America does not expect," a self-defeating announcement intended more to provoke an outburst of security theater than anything else. If this bomb design has any purpose at all, it is to sell full-body scanners to airports, as the instructions helpfully note that the bomb is vulnerable to such.<br /><br /><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-1ZbA9dG9A54/VJrrowO9A2I/AAAAAAAC3vU/wFjV4v5wF88/s1600/scanners.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-1ZbA9dG9A54/VJrrowO9A2I/AAAAAAAC3vU/wFjV4v5wF88/s1600/scanners.PNG" height="400" width="313" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><i>Image from Inspire 13</i></td></tr></tbody></table><br />Beyond the extensive instructions on how to build this complicated and rather unwieldy device, Inspire 13 is in many ways more of the same -- much more, in this case, as the magazine clocks in at a whopping 112 page, almost all of which is devoted to singing the praises of "lone wolf" terrorist attacks. Unfortunately for AQAP, they don't have much to boast of in this category and the editors are forced to cite the successes of AQAP's hated rival, ISIS.<br /><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-dLyc_NcLtV4/VJrsiZpKQhI/AAAAAAAC3vc/RUtF9kB0TLY/s1600/claimingisis.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-dLyc_NcLtV4/VJrsiZpKQhI/AAAAAAAC3vc/RUtF9kB0TLY/s1600/claimingisis.PNG" height="365" width="400" /></a></div><br />The list of lone wolf "successes" includes a number of highly marginal cases, which <a href="http://foreignpolicy.com/2014/12/23/the-islamic-states-deranged-irregulars-lone-wolf-terrorists-isis/" target="_blank">I wrote about in Foreign Policy</a> this week. The entire issue reeks of desperation for relevance and headlines, including calls to assassinate Ben Bernanke, Bill Gates and Clark Ervin. It also includes lackluster responses from Anwar Awlaki to questions posed years ago by Inspire readers, reading lists and lengthy psuedo-intellectual justifications of jihadist action, of the sort ISIS has largely rendered obsolete in favor of a stripped down argument that can be summarized as "let's just kill a bunch of folks."<br /><br />If genius is 99 percent perspiration and 1 percent inspiration, Inspire should consider a new name, because it is 100 percent perspiration, an extraordinary amount of effort spent on repackaging a lot of old ideas.<br /><br /><span style="font-style: italic;">Buy J.M. Berger's book, <a href="http://amzn.to/ahwBqH">Jihad Joe: Americans Who Go to War in the Name of Islam</a></span> <br /><br /><b>RECENT PUBLICATIONS</b><br /><div><ul><li><a href="http://icsr.info/wp-content/uploads/2013/03/ICSR_Berger-and-Strathearn.pdf" target="_blank">Who Matters Online: Measuring Influence, Evaluating Content and Countering Violent Extremism in Online Social Networks</a></li><li><a href="http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2013/03/12/the_hate_list?page=full" target="_blank">The SPLC's Hate List: Is America really being overrun by right-wing militants?</a></li><li><a href="http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2013/02/20/unfollow" target="_blank">#Unfollow: The case for kicking terrorists off Twitter</a></li></ul></div><div class="blogger-post-footer"><p><a href="http://intelwire.egoplex.com/press.html">Media contact for this post</a> | <a href="http://intelwire.egoplex.com/sourcebooks.html">INTELWIRE Sourcebooks for Journalists</a> | <a href="http://multifacetedmedia.com/">(C) 2010, Mulitfaceted Media Group</a></p></div>Adminnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9059086381162172476.post-75503716220762406172014-10-22T05:17:00.002-07:002014-10-22T05:17:42.960-07:00IS closes in on JN in hashtag battle, but attention is dividedThe Islamic State made some progress in closing the legitimacy gap with Jabhat al Nusra, according to the latest analysis of hashtags used by a social network connected to global jihadist financiers, but the network's overall focus has declined considerably in recent weeks.<br /><br />For the last post in this series, <a href="http://news.intelwire.com/2014/08/for-global-jihadist-supporters-islamic.html" target="_blank">click here</a>.<br /><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-8up6sJTyp2k/VEedNfi1P9I/AAAAAAAC2u8/-J_8EaG8viY/s1600/finance1028-chart1.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-8up6sJTyp2k/VEedNfi1P9I/AAAAAAAC2u8/-J_8EaG8viY/s1600/finance1028-chart1.png" height="364" width="640" /></a></div><br />Overall, hashtags referencing both Jabhat al Nusra and the Islamic State by name declined notably. This appears to be related to declining interest from the financier community, rather than a decline in overall activity in the network, which remained about the same.<br /><br />The chart below shows the distribution of hashtags used more than 200 times from the last period to this period; you can see that content was less viral overall, with fewer hashtags in the upper echelons and more in the lower. This shift may skew some of the numbers in the chart above toward IS, whose content tends to be more viral.<br /><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-2m5pVZm44AM/VEed3Hvz_pI/AAAAAAAC2vE/w8SsryN4eEE/s1600/finance1028-chart4.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-2m5pVZm44AM/VEed3Hvz_pI/AAAAAAAC2vE/w8SsryN4eEE/s1600/finance1028-chart4.png" height="332" width="640" /></a></div><br />In terms of sentiment, references to the Islamic State by its proper name started to close the gap with al Nusra, increasing during a period that overall totals declined, while references to IS using the derogatory "Daash" declined significantly. This may suggest that IS is becoming a normalized part of the jihadi global community (an outcome suggested by <a href="http://www.lawfareblog.com/2014/07/the-foreign-policy-essay-calculated-caliphate/" target="_blank">Thomas Hegghammer</a> some months ago), but it's probably wise to treat these numbers cautiously, since there have been similar fluctuations in the past (see the July 24 numbers, for instance).<br /><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-gXT6DYao5QY/VEeeecJVacI/AAAAAAAC2vM/dD3N3Y0p-Wk/s1600/finance1028-chart2.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-gXT6DYao5QY/VEeeecJVacI/AAAAAAAC2vM/dD3N3Y0p-Wk/s1600/finance1028-chart2.png" height="364" width="640" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-RSGNJvZK64Q/VEeensO8jEI/AAAAAAAC2vU/HBvlQ_pqn04/s1600/finance1028-chart2.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-RSGNJvZK64Q/VEeensO8jEI/AAAAAAAC2vU/HBvlQ_pqn04/s1600/finance1028-chart2.png" height="366" width="640" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><br /><br /><div style="font-family: Alike, serif;"><b>Methodology:&nbsp;</b>I looked at the most recent 200 tweets from approximately 7,600 Twitter accounts that were followed by 21 prominent jihadist fundraisers on Twitter (as well as the tweets of the fundraisers themselves), analyzing a total of somewhat less than 3 million tweets for each collection period, which included a substantial amount of overlap from one period to the next.<br /><br />From those tweets, I extracted the most popular Arabic hashtags used by members of the network to refer to jihadist groups in Syria and Iraq. Two of the original seed accounts were suspended by Twitter over the course of the study, but there is so much overlap among the accounts that it made only a fraction of a percent of difference in the number of tweets examined.&nbsp;</div><div><br /></div><span style="font-style: italic;">Buy J.M. Berger's book, <a href="http://amzn.to/ahwBqH">Jihad Joe: Americans Who Go to War in the Name of Islam</a></span> <br /><br /><b>RECENT PUBLICATIONS</b><br /><div><ul><li><a href="http://icsr.info/wp-content/uploads/2013/03/ICSR_Berger-and-Strathearn.pdf" target="_blank">Who Matters Online: Measuring Influence, Evaluating Content and Countering Violent Extremism in Online Social Networks</a></li><li><a href="http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2013/03/12/the_hate_list?page=full" target="_blank">The SPLC's Hate List: Is America really being overrun by right-wing militants?</a></li><li><a href="http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2013/02/20/unfollow" target="_blank">#Unfollow: The case for kicking terrorists off Twitter</a></li></ul></div><div class="blogger-post-footer"><p><a href="http://intelwire.egoplex.com/press.html">Media contact for this post</a> | <a href="http://intelwire.egoplex.com/sourcebooks.html">INTELWIRE Sourcebooks for Journalists</a> | <a href="http://multifacetedmedia.com/">(C) 2010, Mulitfaceted Media Group</a></p></div>Adminnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9059086381162172476.post-12467602975021300092014-10-20T14:37:00.000-07:002014-10-20T14:37:44.365-07:00Document: CENTCOM Response to Awlaki, AQAPINTELWIRE has obtained a Powerpoint on responses to al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula, created by the U.S. Central Command about a month after President Obama authorized lethal force against Yemeni-American cleric Anwar Awlaki.<br /><br />The heavily redacted SECRET document, declassified in part through the Freedom of Information Act, outlines what CENTCOM "must" and "cannot" do relative to AQAP, but both lists are redacted in full. The released portions of the document include a limited description of Awlaki and his role with AQAP as well as an interagency plan for dealing with AQAP.<br /><br /><a href="http://intelwire.egoplex.com/awlaki-centcom.pdf" target="_blank">Click here for full document (PDF)</a><br /><span style="font-style: italic;"><br /></span><span style="font-style: italic;">Buy J.M. Berger's book, <a href="http://amzn.to/ahwBqH">Jihad Joe: Americans Who Go to War in the Name of Islam</a></span> <br /><br /><b>RECENT PUBLICATIONS</b><br /><div><ul><li><a href="http://icsr.info/wp-content/uploads/2013/03/ICSR_Berger-and-Strathearn.pdf" target="_blank">Who Matters Online: Measuring Influence, Evaluating Content and Countering Violent Extremism in Online Social Networks</a></li><li><a href="http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2013/03/12/the_hate_list?page=full" target="_blank">The SPLC's Hate List: Is America really being overrun by right-wing militants?</a></li><li><a href="http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2013/02/20/unfollow" target="_blank">#Unfollow: The case for kicking terrorists off Twitter</a></li></ul></div><div class="blogger-post-footer"><p><a href="http://intelwire.egoplex.com/press.html">Media contact for this post</a> | <a href="http://intelwire.egoplex.com/sourcebooks.html">INTELWIRE Sourcebooks for Journalists</a> | <a href="http://multifacetedmedia.com/">(C) 2010, Mulitfaceted Media Group</a></p></div>Adminnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9059086381162172476.post-18294745816014165982014-10-04T11:21:00.001-07:002014-10-04T11:21:17.729-07:00Threat Versus Impact <span style="background-color: white;">Given the robust discussion of the relevance/irrelevance of al Qaeda Central, al Qaeda affiliates, the Islamic State, the Khorasan Group (if it is in fact anything but just plain old AQC), it's worth pointing out a fundamental tenet of terrorism, which one could be forgiven for having forgotten, given how much energy we spend fighting terrorism on the big stage.&nbsp;</span><br /><span style="background-color: white;"><br /></span>Terrorism is asymmetrical. Recruit five guys and their last week's paychecks, and you can make headlines for months. Recruit 20 guys and their life's savings, and you can make headlines for years. All it takes is some creativity, psychology and street smarts about how you approach your attack. Fortunately for us, terrorist groups and individual terrorist actors don't usually tend to apply all three at the same time to accomplish a task effectively.<br /><br />But the real point is: There will be terrorist plots and successful terrorist attacks in the future, whether from al Qaeda, its affiliates, the Islamic State, the Ku Klux Klan, the Shining Path, or any of hundreds of other groups of various sizes, strengths and degrees of political relevance. We are going to endure terrorist attacks against the United States for the indefinite future, mostly on a small scale, occasionally on a larger scale. Most will fail, some will succeed. This is reality.<br /><br />The fact that plots are underway or that some of them come to fruition is not the sole determinant of a group or movement's relevance or importance.<br /><br />The question is what kind of plots and attacks are underway, whether they are realistically constructed, whether plots move from conception to operation, whether attacks succeed consistently, whether consistently successful attacks emanate from a common source, and what effect such attacks have on both broad national security issues and domestic politics in the countries against which they are directed.<br /><br />The Khorasan Group shows that al Qaeda still has operatives and those operatives would like to do something bad. It doesn't fundamentally transform our understanding of the group or the threat it presents (unless you thought al Qaeda had literally zero resources left, in which case yeah, OK, you need to rethink things).<br /><br />But the Khorasan Group is ultimately a couple dozen guys trying to do literally exactly the same thing AQAP has been trying to do for years.&nbsp;That's not nothing (I refer you to the second paragraph), and although they have little to show for it so far, that will likely eventually change. But this is not a sea change in the threat environment, nor it does not lend itself to an apples-to-apples comparison to what the Islamic State is currently doing and is likely to do in the future.<br /><br />Threats require responses, but they are only part of the picture. The Boston Marathon bombing was the most successful terrorist attack on American soil in recent memory, but it hasn't changed much in terms of our approach to terrorism policy. The fact of the threat in that case is clear, its impact on the broader context of the war on terrorism less so.<br /><br />I would argue the Islamic State's hostage beheading campaign qualifies as a much more impactful terrorist action, even though the group has not yet carried out violent action in the U.S. homeland. And keep in mind, I'm saying that as someone who lives about two miles from where Dzhokhar Tsarnaev was eventually captured.<br /><br /><span style="background-color: white;">Our assessments and conversations about the direction of the global jihadist movement, including its terrorist and insurgent components, are part of a much larger conversation, one that involves trends stretching over months and years, battlefields and civilian theaters, and most importantly, policy and politics.&nbsp;</span><br /><br /><span style="font-style: italic;">Opinions expressed herein are those of J.M. Berger. Buy J.M. Berger's book,&nbsp;</span><a href="http://amzn.to/ahwBqH" style="font-style: italic;">Jihad Joe: Americans Who Go to War in the Name of Islam</a><span style="font-style: italic;">&nbsp;and pre-order the forthcoming book by Jessica Stern and J.M. Berger,&nbsp;</span><a href="http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/0062395548/ref=as_li_tl?ie=UTF8&amp;camp=1789&amp;creative=390957&amp;creativeASIN=0062395548&amp;linkCode=as2&amp;tag=nabobsnet-20&amp;linkId=5L5A7V5ESBJGYELG" style="font-style: italic;" target="_blank">ISIS: The State of Terror</a><span style="font-style: italic;">.&nbsp;</span><br /><br /><b>RECENT PUBLICATIONS</b><br /><div><ul><li><a href="http://icsr.info/wp-content/uploads/2013/03/ICSR_Berger-and-Strathearn.pdf" target="_blank">Who Matters Online: Measuring Influence, Evaluating Content and Countering Violent Extremism in Online Social Networks</a></li><li><a href="http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2013/03/12/the_hate_list?page=full" target="_blank">The SPLC's Hate List: Is America really being overrun by right-wing militants?</a></li><li><a href="http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2013/02/20/unfollow" target="_blank">#Unfollow: The case for kicking terrorists off Twitter</a></li></ul></div><div class="blogger-post-footer"><p><a href="http://intelwire.egoplex.com/press.html">Media contact for this post</a> | <a href="http://intelwire.egoplex.com/sourcebooks.html">INTELWIRE Sourcebooks for Journalists</a> | <a href="http://multifacetedmedia.com/">(C) 2010, Mulitfaceted Media Group</a></p></div>Adminnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9059086381162172476.post-23922688264504887662014-10-02T07:13:00.000-07:002014-11-02T06:03:36.510-08:00Resistible Force Meets Movable ObjectThe summer of "ZOMG ISIS TWITTER" has become the winter of analysts' discontent. Twitter's recent campaign to suspend at least several hundred Islamic State Twitter accounts leads inevitably to the grousing of analysts who say it accomplishes nothing (and just coincidentally makes their jobs harder).<br /><br />The IS Twitter as unstoppable apocalyptic force meme has been in full bloom in several articles lately, but I'll confine myself to&nbsp;<a href="http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2014/10/01/isis-is-winning-the-online-jihad-against-the-west.html" target="_blank">this</a>, since it takes direct aim at my comments on the effect of Twitter's <a href="https://twitter.com/intelwire/status/516789689106579457" target="_blank">recent suspensions</a> of Islamic State supporters on Twitter on IS's ability to game hashtags and disseminate content.&nbsp;Time is a precious commodity at the moment,&nbsp;<span style="text-align: center;">so I’ll just hit the high notes, and there will be more to come later.</span><br /><br />The suspensions, which are not necessarily the work of "the West" writ large as the authors imply, have shockingly not obliterated IS supporters from Twitter. No reasonable person has ever suggested they would, and I certainly have never suggested we can or should. IS Twitter is a movable object, and efforts to suspend accounts are a resistible force.<br /><br />The authors believe that this resilience of IS's core activists on Twitter means that suspensions have no meaningful effect. But to mount this argument, they conveniently dismiss IS's external audience -- i.e., people who are not hardcore supporters -- as “lazy” and "least engaged" users who are "hardly worth considering.”<br /><br />This flies in the face of the evidence and renders much of the rest of the analysis pointless. An extremely substantial portion of IS propaganda is explicitly aimed at external audiences, and its creative and resource-intensive methods of disseminating content (hashtag gaming, bots and purchased tweets) show just how much priority it puts on external messaging.<br /><br />The authors' perplexing formulation of the irrelevant external audience also requires that IS supporters are magically born out of the ether, fully radicalized and fully networked, instead of migrating from the external audience to the internal.<br /><br />The authors make much of the spread of content to multiple platforms, which has certainly occurred. And yet IS keeps coming back to Twitter and YouTube. Why is that? Because the biggest audiences are easiest to reach there. There is no scenario under which IS propaganda will become unavailable online. But there is no reason they shouldn't have to work harder, and there is no reason that giant corporate Internet service providers should allow them unfettered use of the biggest and best dissemination platforms.<br /><div><br />I have several data-based pieces coming over the next several months to address these questions, so I'm not going to do it all in this space, but two charts from my IS monitoring lists provide some preliminary insight into the effect of the terminations.<br /><br /><b>UPDATE: </b>The most immediate effect can be seen in the composition of my IS monitoring lists. When I set up my monitoring list, for various reasons, I break it up into three equal lists based on the number of followers each account has. Prior to the Twitter suspension campaign, those three equal parts broke down to accounts with less than 250 followers, accounts with less than 800 followers, and accounts with more than 800 followers. As of Oct. 3, to equally distribute all my accounts, I had to set the threshholds at less than 150, less than 500 and greater than 500. This shows that the IS user base is working with much smaller numbers than before. And keep in mind that it's easier to find accounts with many followers, so this breakdown tends to be top-heavy. Here's a chart showing the change:<br /><b><br /></b><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-8gTRFcQeUDc/VC8qVrtylwI/AAAAAAAC2JE/-NgAuyOIVLo/s1600/followershifisis.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-8gTRFcQeUDc/VC8qVrtylwI/AAAAAAAC2JE/-NgAuyOIVLo/s1600/followershifisis.png" height="302" width="400" /></a></div><b><br /></b><b><br /></b><b>END UPDATE</b><br /><br />The size of the lists change over time, partly due to new users but also due to my ongoing discovery of accounts, so these are based on per-user averages. The first shows how Twitter's most recent suspension of 400 accounts affects the "internal" network in samples taken on Sept. 28 and Oct. 1.&nbsp;</div><div><div style="text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-zlnZ8B2E1BA/VCy5Rmj9R7I/AAAAAAAC2IU/LhsZ7ieRN-M/s1600/degraded2a.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-zlnZ8B2E1BA/VCy5Rmj9R7I/AAAAAAAC2IU/LhsZ7ieRN-M/s1600/degraded2a.png" height="400" width="342" /></a></div><div style="text-align: center;"><br /></div><br /><div style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-style: italic;"><br /></span></div><div style="text-align: left;">This chart shows only interactions among members of the IS supporter base (in other words, the hardcore activists that the authors claim are unaffected by suspensions. The analysis is based on the most recent 200 tweets, rather than time-framed, which means the impact is probably larger, as my analysis technique (by design) results in lagging indicators.</div><div style="text-align: left;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: left;">Here's a look at the average number of retweets per tweet by an IS supporter, starting in July (prior to Twitter's most aggressive suspensions) through September, after all of IS's official accounts were permanently banned by Twitter, and the most recent data after the 400 suspensions, again with the caveat for lagging indicators.&nbsp;</div><br /><br />&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;<a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-ctvsHqleAz0/VCzfSneKKbI/AAAAAAAC2Ik/xF9jiEjfSAk/s1600/degraded3.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em; text-align: center;"><img border="0" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-ctvsHqleAz0/VCzfSneKKbI/AAAAAAAC2Ik/xF9jiEjfSAk/s1600/degraded3.png" height="241" width="400" /></a><br /><br />This includes both internal and external audiences. It also doesn't account for retweeting bots, a new crop of which was recently launched by IS. Subtract the impact of the hundreds of bots (which I don't have time to do right now) and the drop in October would be even greater. This is relevant as it pertains to human behavior, although the bots are currently a legitimate part of the ecosystem. Among other things, the bots drove links and retweets to the IS propaganda film "Flames of War."<br /><br />There's also content quality. Anyone who follows any reasonable number of IS accounts has no doubt seen that rebuilding their networks now consumes a disproportionate amount of time. In other words, the <i>quality </i>of the interactions has been dramatically impacted, with thousands of tweets devoted to announcing and promoting newly reconstituted accounts and debunking fake ones that pop up while the originals are gone.<br /><br />Time and energy spent recreating the network is, at this point, a significant portion of what IS does online (a minimum of 8 percent of tweets from September 29 to October 1, and likely higher), drawing focus and resources away from the business of sending ordinary Westerners pictures of severed heads when they're trying to get sports scores or live-tweet Cake Boss.<br /><br />The suspensions have also caused IS users to think before they tweet; the heads and threats to execute hostages are in decline, though by no means absent, and when they start to pop up again, accounts go down. All of this is on Twitter, of course, it doesn't speak to "availability" of IS content. It speaks to dissemination and reach on one of the best platforms for driving traffic, as well as highlighting the fact that these online communities can be incentivized to change their behavior.<br /><br />Many suspended accounts return, of course, but they have to rebuild every time, and the data suggests there is good reason to think they will&nbsp;<a href="http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2013/02/20/unfollow" target="_blank">lose ground over the long haul</a>. We'll soon have enough data to talk about more definitively in the IS context. The early data is very encouraging and I will publish more of it <a href="http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/0062395548/ref=as_li_tl?ie=UTF8&amp;camp=1789&amp;creative=390957&amp;creativeASIN=0062395548&amp;linkCode=as2&amp;tag=nabobsnet-20&amp;linkId=5L5A7V5ESBJGYELG" target="_blank">when the book comes out</a>.<br /><br />Fundamentally, however this comes down to the inexplicable argument I've heard time and again, that in a world where we do practically anything to fight terrorists practically anywhere regardless of the costs or collateral damage, and with too little regard for whether what we do works, that kicking a very small number of terrorists off of Twitter for a small- to medium-gain is somehow a bridge too far, and ultimately useless because it doesn't instantly and magically end extremism.<br /><br />I continue to be unmoved.<br /><br />More to come, down the road a bit...<br /><br /><span style="font-style: italic;">Opinions expressed herein are those of J.M. Berger. Buy J.M. Berger's book, <a href="http://amzn.to/ahwBqH">Jihad Joe: Americans Who Go to War in the Name of Islam</a>&nbsp;and pre-order his new book with Jessica Stern, <a href="http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/0062395548/ref=as_li_tl?ie=UTF8&amp;camp=1789&amp;creative=390957&amp;creativeASIN=0062395548&amp;linkCode=as2&amp;tag=nabobsnet-20&amp;linkId=5L5A7V5ESBJGYELG" target="_blank">ISIS: The State of Terror</a>.&nbsp;</span><br /><b><br /></b><b>RECENT PUBLICATIONS</b><br /><div><ul><li><a href="http://icsr.info/wp-content/uploads/2013/03/ICSR_Berger-and-Strathearn.pdf" target="_blank">Who Matters Online: Measuring Influence, Evaluating Content and Countering Violent Extremism in Online Social Networks</a></li><li><a href="http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2013/03/12/the_hate_list?page=full" target="_blank">The SPLC's Hate List: Is America really being overrun by right-wing militants?</a></li><li><a href="http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2013/02/20/unfollow" target="_blank">#Unfollow: The case for kicking terrorists off Twitter</a></li></ul></div></div><div class="blogger-post-footer"><p><a href="http://intelwire.egoplex.com/press.html">Media contact for this post</a> | <a href="http://intelwire.egoplex.com/sourcebooks.html">INTELWIRE Sourcebooks for Journalists</a> | <a href="http://multifacetedmedia.com/">(C) 2010, Mulitfaceted Media Group</a></p></div>Adminnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9059086381162172476.post-84143065931899871602014-09-16T19:45:00.001-07:002014-09-16T19:45:12.731-07:00ISIS: The State of Terror<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-Ii7EWRsf0FQ/VBj1bUz0G9I/AAAAAAAC12c/7L3NKX1_l-A/s1600/isiscover.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-Ii7EWRsf0FQ/VBj1bUz0G9I/AAAAAAAC12c/7L3NKX1_l-A/s1600/isiscover.png" height="200" width="131" /></a></div>Jessica Stern and J.M. Berger co-author the forthcoming book, "ISIS: The State of Terror," from Ecco, an imprint of HarperCollins. The book, which will debut in early 2015, will examine the rise of the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria, how it is transforming the nature of extremist movements, and how we should evaluate the threat it presents.<br /><br />Jessica Stern is a Harvard lecturer on terrorism and the author of the seminal text <a href="http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B00E32I8HI/ref=as_li_tl?ie=UTF8&amp;camp=1789&amp;creative=390957&amp;creativeASIN=B00E32I8HI&amp;linkCode=as2&amp;tag=nabobsnet-20&amp;linkId=FYDJKCKMTIOB433D" target="_blank">Terror in the Name of God: Why Religious Militants Kill</a>. J.M. Berger is author of the definitive book on American jihadists, <a href="http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/1597976938/ref=as_li_tl?ie=UTF8&amp;camp=1789&amp;creative=390957&amp;creativeASIN=1597976938&amp;linkCode=as2&amp;tag=nabobsnet-20&amp;linkId=FYLXRZFAJYBRTZD6" target="_blank">Jihad Joe: Americans Who Go to War in the Name of Islam</a>, a frequent contributor to Foreign Policy, and editor of Intelwire.com.<br /><br />Pre-order information will be posted here when it is available.<br /><div><br /></div><span style="font-style: italic;">Buy J.M. Berger's first book, </span><a href="http://amzn.to/ahwBqH" style="font-style: italic;">Jihad Joe: Americans Who Go to War in the Name of Islam</a><br /><br /><b>RECENT PUBLICATIONS</b><br /><div><ul><li><a href="http://icsr.info/wp-content/uploads/2013/03/ICSR_Berger-and-Strathearn.pdf" target="_blank">Who Matters Online: Measuring Influence, Evaluating Content and Countering Violent Extremism in Online Social Networks</a></li><li><a href="http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2013/03/12/the_hate_list?page=full" target="_blank">The SPLC's Hate List: Is America really being overrun by right-wing militants?</a></li><li><a href="http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2013/02/20/unfollow" target="_blank">#Unfollow: The case for kicking terrorists off Twitter</a></li></ul></div><div class="blogger-post-footer"><p><a href="http://intelwire.egoplex.com/press.html">Media contact for this post</a> | <a href="http://intelwire.egoplex.com/sourcebooks.html">INTELWIRE Sourcebooks for Journalists</a> | <a href="http://multifacetedmedia.com/">(C) 2010, Mulitfaceted Media Group</a></p></div>Adminnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9059086381162172476.post-9083862381987625952014-08-31T10:08:00.003-07:002014-09-02T05:52:05.046-07:00Jihadist Hostages and the Shape of Things to Come<i>Update appended, Tuesday, 9/2/2014, 8:50 a.m.&nbsp;</i><br /><br />The recent beheading execution of hostage American citizen and journalist James Foley by the breakaway "Islamic State" in Iraq and Syria has set the stage for a preview of how IS's war with al Qaeda may play out.<br /><br />Both IS and its chief rival, al Qaeda's Syrian affiliate Jabhat al Nusra, hold a number of Western hostages between them, with al Nusra capturing 45 United Nations peacekeepers just this week, and IS threatening to behead another American, Steve Sotloff, in the immediate future should the United States continue airstrikes on its positions in Iraq.<br /><br />Back in February, Clint Watts presciently outlined the possible consequences of jihadi competition in the post-al-Qaeda era. The <a href="http://www.fpri.org/geopoliticus/2014/02/jihadi-competition-after-al-qaeda-hegemony-old-guard-team-isis-battle-jihadi-hearts-minds" target="_blank">most dangerous scenario he outlined</a> was that competing jihadi groups would seek to outdo each other in brutality and attacks on the West. This scenario is also known as <a href="http://www.start.umd.edu/news/tale-two-caliphates" target="_blank">outbidding</a>, a form of <a href="http://belfercenter.ksg.harvard.edu/publication/773/strategies_of_terrorism.html" target="_blank">costly signalling</a>&nbsp;of a terrorist group's intent.<br /><br />In the unfolding, or rather ongoing, hostage crisis, we may be getting a preview of whether AQ and IS intend to escalate into an outbidding competition or whether one side will flinch.<br /><br />It's a pretty safe bet that IS won't be the one flinching. With its graphic execution of Foley widely released and promoted online, the so-called "caliphate" is signalling that it desires to be seen as the organization bringing pain and death to the West, and prospects for the next hostage they have threatened appear to be dire.<br /><br />In contrast, a week after Foley's execution was announced, Jabhat al Nusra returned Peter Curtis, another American journalist, after a <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com.au/american-hostages-isis-2014-8" target="_blank">deal brokered by Qatar</a>, the details of which are unknown.<br /><br />Timing is everything. It's not clear exactly when the Curtis deal reached the point of no return, whether it was before the Foley execution was announced, or if the execution of Foley may have helped spur the negotiations along. Furthermore, given that the U.S. is now ambiguously considering airstrikes in Syria, al Nusra may have wished to lower its priority on any potential target list. Al Nusra has executed prisoners in the past, albeit more discriminatingly than IS, so it's highly unlikely the decision to release Curtis came from the goodness of its leaders' hearts.<br /><br />With the Curtis release, al Nusra may or may not have been signalling that it wants to position itself as less extreme or less brutal than IS. We just don't know, there are too many variables. <br /><br />The capture of the U.N. peacekeepers, however, may set the stage for a more conclusive message. The fate of these hostages and the speed with which a deal is reached or ruled out may provide insight into al Nusra's next moves. If al Nusra decided to try to outbid IS, it now has a powerful card to play. <br /><br />If al Nusra quickly completes a deal, on the other hand, it may point to an outcome that has been hinted at elsewhere in their public activities and online circles -- the intention to position themselves as less extreme than IS. Of course, there is plenty of room to be very extreme, while still being less extreme than IS, but the outcome of an outbidding war between Nusra and IS would be horrific, and for many reasons, we should hope the conflict between Nusra and IS does not go in that direction.<br /><br /><b>UPDATE: </b>On Twitter, <a href="https://twitter.com/Charles_Lister/status/506369354775400448" target="_blank">Charles Lister of the Brookings Institute</a> also raised a complicating factor in evaluating how this goes -- al Nusra needs money, and a hefty ransom payment, if offered, may shift the calculus here. IS has also released hostages in exchange for ransom, and it solicited ransom for Foley (although the amount they requested clearly indicated their preference for executing him). It should be interesting to see how this plays out now that <a href="http://www.newsweek.com/why-us-does-not-pay-ransoms-americans-kidnapped-terrorists-266315" target="_blank">the issue of ransoms</a> has come to the forefront. <b>END UPDATE</b><br /><br />Another major question mark is whether al Nusra's next move will be reflective of the broad direction of the wider al Qaeda movement. &nbsp;As reported previously, there is reason to think al Nusra is <a href="http://news.intelwire.com/2014/08/zawahiri-falls-off-map-gets-rebuked-by.html" target="_blank">not getting guidance from al Qaeda Central</a> these days. If that's true, al Nusra may make a strategic call (in either direction) that is not in keeping the wishes of AQC, further fracturing the al Qaeda global network.<br /><br />Finally, AQC has its own card to play, and IS is arguably trying to force its hand. American hostage Warren Weinstein was kidnapped by al Qaeda in 2011. The terrorist organization has periodically released proof-of-life videos featuring Weinstein, the most recent being some months old. In addition to its other goals, IS may have been reproaching AQC for its handling of Weinstein.<br /><br />Al Qaeda has indicated that Weinstein would not be released unless convicted al Qaeda supporter Aafia Siddiqui is released from imprisonment in the U.S. The Islamic State pointedly offered to <a href="http://www.bostonglobe.com/metro/2014/08/22/woman-mentioned-islamic-state-ransom-note-attended-mit-and-brandeis/Y03brh3Jyw5YqGoqkRNyBJ/story.html" target="_blank">exchange James Foley for Siddiqui</a>&nbsp;(among other U.S. prisoners) before it executed him. This demand was likely aimed directly at al Qaeda's credibility and contains an implicit critique of AQC's handling of Weinstein. This is, in some ways, a lose-lose scenario for AQC. If it responds by executing Weinstein, it looks like it is chasing the Islamic State's tail. If it continues to hold him under threat without taking action, IS comes out looking like the group that is more likely to get things done.<br /><br />All of the activity around these hostages is, to some greater or lesser extent, proxy for each organization's larger intentions. If we see an escalation of violence against Westerners in the matter of hostages, particularly from al Nusra or al Qaeda, it may point to the start of a similar dynamic in regards to terrorist attacks on Western interests abroad or at home. If we see de-escalation, it could mark the start of a different kind of ideological struggle to contain the Islamic State by its own horrible brethren, a conflict whose ultimate consequences are yet unclear. <br /><br /><b>TUESDAY UPDATE:</b>&nbsp;In an extremely relevant development, Voice of America reported Monday that al Nusra had delivered a list of demands to Fiji, the country whose soldiers were captured while under the U.N. banner.<br /><br />While Nusra did ask for some money, what is far more significant is that <a href="http://www.voanews.com/content/nusra-front-hostages/2435557.html" target="_blank">they asked to be removed from the United Nations designated terrorist group listings</a>. This is an extremely powerful signal that al Nusra may not intend to outbid the Islamic State, but that it may intend to change direction and position itself as a less extreme alternative.<br /><br />The implications of this are far-reaching. There is little precedent for an al Qaeda affiliate renouncing the title of "terrorist," and it is likely that the Western response will be confused at best. It's early to parse out the nuances, but it's possible this could be a watershed moment between al Nusra and al Qaeda, as well as between both groups and the Islamic State. Updates soon.<br /><br /><span style="font-style: italic;">Buy J.M. Berger's book, <a href="http://amzn.to/ahwBqH">Jihad Joe: Americans Who Go to War in the Name of Islam</a></span> <br /><br /><b>RECENT PUBLICATIONS</b><br /><div><ul><li><a href="http://icsr.info/wp-content/uploads/2013/03/ICSR_Berger-and-Strathearn.pdf" target="_blank">Who Matters Online: Measuring Influence, Evaluating Content and Countering Violent Extremism in Online Social Networks</a></li><li><a href="http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2013/03/12/the_hate_list?page=full" target="_blank">The SPLC's Hate List: Is America really being overrun by right-wing militants?</a></li><li><a href="http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2013/02/20/unfollow" target="_blank">#Unfollow: The case for kicking terrorists off Twitter</a></li></ul></div><div class="blogger-post-footer"><p><a href="http://intelwire.egoplex.com/press.html">Media contact for this post</a> | <a href="http://intelwire.egoplex.com/sourcebooks.html">INTELWIRE Sourcebooks for Journalists</a> | <a href="http://multifacetedmedia.com/">(C) 2010, Mulitfaceted Media Group</a></p></div>Adminnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9059086381162172476.post-11723754373615100982014-08-30T17:26:00.002-07:002014-08-30T17:27:55.982-07:0010 Things You Need to Know About Reporting on Terrorists on Social MediaSome guidelines for journalists reporting from extremist content on social media:<br /><br /><ol><li>I'm calling it. "Terrorists are on social media" is officially not news. You should not be writing a story which features "terrorists are on social media" as its lead and/or nut graf.<br />&nbsp;&nbsp;</li><li>If you know more about social media than about terrorism and extremism, turn the story over to someone who knows more about terrorism and extremism. It's easier for them to understand how social media works than the other way around.<br />&nbsp;</li><li>Just because someone says they're with the Islamic State (IS/ISIS/ISIL), or al Qaeda, or anything else, doesn't mean it's true. If you don't know how to determine whether an account is actually associated with the group, don't report on its content.<br />&nbsp;</li><li>If your only context for understanding a Twitter account is the content of its tweets, you should not be reporting from it.<br />&nbsp;</li><li>Specifically, as to the above point, it is almost always incorrect to say "IS is saying" or "ISIS is doing" based on a Twitter account if you don't understand its context.<br />&nbsp;</li><li>Random people tweeting awful things is not news.<br />&nbsp;</li><li>Random people tweeting specific threats is not IS making specific threats against America.<br />&nbsp;</li><li>Amplifying IS talking points without context is not news. Consider whether you're reporting news or just helping IS scare Americans more effectively than it could ever do on its own.<br />&nbsp;</li><li>Nine times out of 10, it is not necessary to publicize extremist Twitter and Facebook account handles when reporting from their content.<br />&nbsp;</li><li>Most mainstream media reaches a far larger audience than any IS social media account. Consider whether you are taking a nobody and making him or her a somebody by guiding your much larger audience to his or her door.&nbsp;</li></ol><span style="font-style: italic;">Buy J.M. Berger's book, <a href="http://amzn.to/ahwBqH">Jihad Joe: Americans Who Go to War in the Name of Islam</a></span> <br /><br /><b>RECENT PUBLICATIONS</b><br /><div><ul><li><a href="http://icsr.info/wp-content/uploads/2013/03/ICSR_Berger-and-Strathearn.pdf" target="_blank">Who Matters Online: Measuring Influence, Evaluating Content and Countering Violent Extremism in Online Social Networks</a></li><li><a href="http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2013/03/12/the_hate_list?page=full" target="_blank">The SPLC's Hate List: Is America really being overrun by right-wing militants?</a></li><li><a href="http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2013/02/20/unfollow" target="_blank">#Unfollow: The case for kicking terrorists off Twitter</a></li></ul></div><div class="blogger-post-footer"><p><a href="http://intelwire.egoplex.com/press.html">Media contact for this post</a> | <a href="http://intelwire.egoplex.com/sourcebooks.html">INTELWIRE Sourcebooks for Journalists</a> | <a href="http://multifacetedmedia.com/">(C) 2010, Mulitfaceted Media Group</a></p></div>Adminnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9059086381162172476.post-54952867607906815922014-08-23T19:07:00.001-07:002014-08-23T19:07:22.652-07:00H.P. Lovecraft Evil-O-Matic, ISIS Edition As the self-styled Islamic State continues to make headlines with its atrocities, American pundits, Congressmen and Senior Officials are rapidly running out of ways to describe the terroristic so-called caliphate. As a public service, I am providing the H.P. Lovecraft Evil-O-Matic, which will automatically generate a useful description of IS for your New York Times thinkpiece, your Vice News voiceover or your impending congressional testimony.<br /><br /><center><script language="JavaScript"> <!-- function oneOf(arr) { return arr[Math.floor(Math.random()*arr.length)]; } array1 = new Array("Faceless", "Soulless", "Shapeless", "Mindless", "Voiceless", "Sightless", "Heartless", "Lifeless", "Endless", "Merciless", "Relentless", "Bloodless", "Armless", "Hairless", "Boneless", "Tongueless", "Toothless", "Fingerless", "Noiseless", "Toneless", "Spineless", "Lightless", "Boundless", "Eyeless", "Mouthless", "Legless", "Wordless", "Soundless", "Godless", "Formless", "Rugose", "Veined", "Spidery", "Mottled", "Unthinkable", "Unimaginable", "Unbearable", "Unholy", "Unsanctified", "Forgotten", "Forbidden", "Loathsome", "Obscene", "Destestable", "Fearsome", "Reanimated", "Undead", "Inanimate", "Necroticized", "Putrefied", "Prehistoric", "Prehensile", "Preternatural", "Twisted", "Warped", "Viscous", "Gelatinous", "Demented", "Contorted", "Fleshy", "Pustulent", "Jaundiced", "Antedilluvian", "Incohate", "Leperous", "Unclean", "Filth-covered", "Soiled", "Soured", "Ancient", "Serpentine", "Bubonic", "Plutonic", "Stygian", "Blasphemous", "Heretical", "Gore-splattered", "Excommunicated", "Accursed", "Hideous", "Eldritch", "Ensorceled", "Doomed", "Repulsive", "Vertiginous", "Disemboweled"); array2 = new Array("blaspheming", "crawling", "writhing", "slithering", "twisting", "revolting", "oozing", "spasming", "melting", "boiling", "roiling", "horrifying", "terrifying", "suppurating", "retching", "bleeding", "undulating", "squirming", "mewling", "sprawling", "creeping", "spitting", "galling", "gagging", "nauseating", "skulking", "squealing", "wailing", "rolling", "reeking", "howling", "mutating", "groping", "grasping", "wheezing", "lumbering", "mouldering", "lurching", "shambling", "stinking", "puking", "rotting", "decaying", "raving", "fornicating", "babbling", "brooding", "befouling", "drooling", "gurgling", "bubbling", "screaming", "Cthulu-loving", "Necronomicon-reading", "sickening", "putrefying", "corrupting", "gaping", "moaning", "weeping", "whining", "dissolving", "disintegrating", "festering", "cackling", "howling", "enveloping", "smothering", "suffocating", "slobbering", "masticating"); array3 = new Array("monstrosity", "obscenity", "terror", "creature", "demon", "horror", "abomination", "nightmare", "monster", "daemon", "worm", "slug", "Taliban", "golem", "beast", "serpent", "insect", "maw", "mouth", "gullet", "murderer", "daemonologist", "necromancer", "sadist", "inquisitor", "perversion", "atrocity", "ameoba", "snake", "scorpion", "alien", "doppelganger", "wight", "behemoth", "leviathan", "fungus", "lichen", "zombie", "mould", "befoulment", "word which must not be spoken", "colour that is not a colour", "sound that is not a sound", "scream", "howl", "mutation", "corruption", "halitosis", "mass of flesh", "brain", "lizard", "spider", "pool", "filth", "slime", "belly", "snout", "orifice", "tentacle", "appendage", "entity", "animal", "ghoul", "deviant", "brute", "sorcerer", "swine", "wildebeest", "weasel", "hobgoblin", "lycanthrope", "changeling", "miscreate", "hellhound", "freak", "chimera", "maniac", "fiend", "plague", "pest", "bacteria", "incubus", "succubus", "devil", "villain", "sludge", "parasite", "tapeworm", "bloodsucker", "mammoth", "cyclops", "flesh-eater", "phantasm", "specter", "wraith", "poltergeist", "misanthrope", "antagonist", "traitor", "lunatic", "madman", "misceganist", "hunchback", "trilobyte", "troglodyte", "canker", "boil", "growth", "cancer", "tumor", "psuedopod", "talon", "bowel", "excretion", "expulsion", "secretion", "regurgitation", "fluid", "reptile", "blasphemy", "heresy", "pox"); function getReview() { document.frmRev.txtRev.value=oneOf(array1)+' '+oneOf(array2)+' '+oneOf(array3)+'.'; } //</script></center> <form name="frmRev"><textarea cols="35" name="txtRev" rows="3" style="font-family: sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;" wrap="soft"></textarea><br /><input onclick="getReview()" type="button" value="Generate Evil Descriptor" /></form><br />To show you how it works, I've juiced up President Obama's statement from last week on the organization is still calling ISIL.<br /><blockquote class="tr_bq">The eldritch nauseating cancer speaks for no religion.&nbsp;The endless mutating fungus's victims are overwhelmingly&nbsp;Muslim, and no faith teaches hideous skulking weasels to massacre innocents. No just God would stand for what the gelatinous revolting worms&nbsp;did yesterday, and for what they do&nbsp;every single day. The faceless dissolving plague has no ideology of any value to human beings. Their ideology is a veined nauseating tumor. The boneless decaying sludge may claim out of expediency that they are at war with the United States or the West, but the fact is the shapeless gaping chimerae terrorize their neighbors and offer them nothing but an endless slavery to their ensorceled mewling scream, and the collapse of any definition of civilized behavior.</blockquote><span style="font-style: italic;">Buy J.M. Berger's book, <a href="http://amzn.to/ahwBqH">Jihad Joe: Americans Who Go to War in the Name of Islam</a></span> <br /><br /><b>RECENT PUBLICATIONS</b><br /><div><ul><li><a href="http://icsr.info/wp-content/uploads/2013/03/ICSR_Berger-and-Strathearn.pdf" target="_blank">Who Matters Online: Measuring Influence, Evaluating Content and Countering Violent Extremism in Online Social Networks</a></li><li><a href="http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2013/03/12/the_hate_list?page=full" target="_blank">The SPLC's Hate List: Is America really being overrun by right-wing militants?</a></li><li><a href="http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2013/02/20/unfollow" target="_blank">#Unfollow: The case for kicking terrorists off Twitter</a></li></ul></div><div class="blogger-post-footer"><p><a href="http://intelwire.egoplex.com/press.html">Media contact for this post</a> | <a href="http://intelwire.egoplex.com/sourcebooks.html">INTELWIRE Sourcebooks for Journalists</a> | <a href="http://multifacetedmedia.com/">(C) 2010, Mulitfaceted Media Group</a></p></div>Adminnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9059086381162172476.post-45255940412211970072014-08-18T13:24:00.003-07:002014-08-18T13:24:38.154-07:00For Global Jihadist Supporters, Islamic State's Massacre Wipes Out Any Sympathy Over U.S. StrikesThe self-styled Islamic State dealt sparked a major backlash among global jihadists online who were incensed by its <a href="http://www.aljazeera.com/news/middleeast/2014/08/islamic-state-group-executes-700-syria-2014816123945662121.html" target="_blank">reported massacre of 700 tribe members</a>, mostly civilians, in Deir Ezzor province in Syria.&nbsp;<div><br /></div><div>Negative hashtag references to the Islamic State, using the derogatory Arabic acronym Daash, soared from Aug. 8 to Aug. 18, increasing by 44 percent. When hashtags referring to Daash along with a reference to the massacre specifically were included in the count, the total soared by 85 percent.&nbsp;</div><div><br /></div><div>The surge in negative sentiment toward IS took place concurrently with airstrikes on the self-proclaimed caliphate by both the United States and the Assad regime and during the period during which&nbsp;Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki stepped down, which IS has claimed as a victory.&nbsp;</div><div><br /></div><div>In other words, IS not only managed to completely erase all the goodwill it might have accrued from battling jihadists' hated enemies, but it added considerable negatives on top of that.&nbsp;</div><div><br /></div><div>Hashtags related to U.S. strikes on IS surfaced in the top 100 hashtags during the August 8 collection period, but they disappeared in the August 18 period. &nbsp;</div><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-tZRX1Skch-0/U_JfyHhfGBI/AAAAAAAC1lI/18niUaelGiU/s1600/daash-chart.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-tZRX1Skch-0/U_JfyHhfGBI/AAAAAAAC1lI/18niUaelGiU/s1600/daash-chart.png" height="366" width="640" /></a></div><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-3C-KH0EIgaU/U_JfyLGaNxI/AAAAAAAC1lE/CL07UJ4J-dA/s1600/daash-chart2.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-3C-KH0EIgaU/U_JfyLGaNxI/AAAAAAAC1lE/CL07UJ4J-dA/s1600/daash-chart2.png" height="366" width="640" /></a></div><div><br /><div><br /></div><div><span style="font-family: Alike, serif;"><b>Methodology:&nbsp;</b>I looked at the most recent 200 tweets from approximately 7,500 Twitter accounts that were followed by 22 prominent jihadist fundraisers on Twitter (as well as the tweets of the fundraisers themselves), analyzing a total of somewhat less than 3 million tweets for each collection period, which included a substantial amount of overlap from one period to the next.&nbsp;</span><br style="font-family: Alike, serif;" /><span style="font-family: Alike, serif;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: Alike, serif;"></span><span style="font-family: Alike, serif;">From those tweets, I extracted the most popular Arabic hashtags used by members of the network to refer to jihadist groups in Syria and Iraq. Two of the original seed accounts were suspended by Twitter, most recently&nbsp;</span><a href="http://www.buzzfeed.com/miriamberger/twitter-just-suspended-two-kuwaitis-accused-by-the-us-of-fin" style="font-family: Alike, serif;" target="_blank">Hajjaj al Ajmi</a><span style="font-family: Alike, serif;">, but there is so much overlap among the accounts that it made only a fraction of a percent of difference in the number of tweets examined.&nbsp;</span></div><div><br /><br /><span style="font-style: italic;">Buy J.M. Berger's book, <a href="http://amzn.to/ahwBqH">Jihad Joe: Americans Who Go to War in the Name of Islam</a></span> <br /><br /><b>RECENT PUBLICATIONS</b><br /><div><ul><li><a href="http://icsr.info/wp-content/uploads/2013/03/ICSR_Berger-and-Strathearn.pdf" target="_blank">Who Matters Online: Measuring Influence, Evaluating Content and Countering Violent Extremism in Online Social Networks</a></li><li><a href="http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2013/03/12/the_hate_list?page=full" target="_blank">The SPLC's Hate List: Is America really being overrun by right-wing militants?</a></li><li><a href="http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2013/02/20/unfollow" target="_blank">#Unfollow: The case for kicking terrorists off Twitter</a></li></ul></div></div></div><div class="blogger-post-footer"><p><a href="http://intelwire.egoplex.com/press.html">Media contact for this post</a> | <a href="http://intelwire.egoplex.com/sourcebooks.html">INTELWIRE Sourcebooks for Journalists</a> | <a href="http://multifacetedmedia.com/">(C) 2010, Mulitfaceted Media Group</a></p></div>Adminnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9059086381162172476.post-44319956137048649362014-08-18T06:39:00.000-07:002014-08-18T09:36:43.446-07:00Zawahiri Falls Off The Map, Is Rebuked By Top Al Nusra Figure<i>UPDATED: 11:17 a.m., see note below&nbsp;</i><br /><br />Al Qaeda leader Ayman al Zawahiri has stopped responding to messages from the terror network's affiliate in Syria, Jabhat al Nusra, according to an extraordinary open letter published online yesterday by a top Nusra figure, Abu Maria al Qahtani.<br /><br />According to Qahtani, Zawahiri went silent around the time that AQ splinter group, the Islamic State, declared a "caliphate" and demanded fealty from all other jihadi groups around the world. In a reproachful tone, Qahtani asked whether Zawahiri's intermediaries were delivering the messages, or whether Zawahiri knew about this grave emergency and just didn't care to help.<br /><br />Qahtani writes, in an open letter addressed to Zawahiri, that al Nusra has been sending urgent messages to Zawahiri for two months, requesting that he speak out against the Islamic State's caliphate declaration, referring to IS as&nbsp;<a href="http://www.britannica.com/EBchecked/topic/316391/Kharijite" target="_blank">Kharijites</a> (a derogatory reference to an early schism in Islamic history). Despite the letter's tone, Qahtani continues to refer to Zawahiri with respect, as an authority figure.<br /><br />In the letter, al Qahtani says he is embarrassed to be making this public appeal, but he cannot be certain whether Zawahiri is aware of the situation and just doesn't want to help, or whether Nusra's messages to Zawahiri are being delivered by the designated intermediaries, whom Qahtani implies may not be trustworthy.<br /><br />Last year, Ibrahim al Afghani, a figure with longstanding ties to al Qaeda and Zawahiri, published an similarly controversial open letter to Zawahiri in which he pleaded for the al Qaeda leader to intervene in a dispute within al Shabab, al Qaeda's affiliate in Somalia. Afghani was killed soon thereafter by al Shabab's leadership, as was <a href="http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2013/09/16/omar_and_me" target="_blank">Omar Hammami</a>, an American Shabab recruit who issued similar public pleas for al Qaeda intervention.<br /><br />Al Qaeda made no response to either man while they were alive, but a leaked video this year from Adam Gadahn, an American al Qaeda member believed to be close to Zawahiri, condemned the killing of both men as Islamically unacceptable.<br /><br />All of this together casts serious doubt on whether al Qaeda is in steady communication with any of its affiliates. Although individual instances of contact have certainly occurred, Zawahiri's response times have not been adequate to address the growing number of crises faced by AQ and its affiliates on the global stage. (I noted signs of this situation developing in a February article for <a href="http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2014/02/04/war_on_error_al_qaeda_terrorism" target="_blank">Foreign Policy</a>.)<br /><br />The letter from Qahtani is an order of magnitude more significant than the earlier rebukes aimed at Zawahiri's silence, since those came from dissenters who were defying al Shabab's AQ-sanctioned leader, Ahmed Godane.<br /><br />In contrast,&nbsp;Qahtani has been part of the leadership of one of al Qaeda's most important affiliates, currently under tremendous pressure from <a href="http://www.cnn.com/2014/08/15/opinion/syria-aleppo-isis-threat/" target="_blank">Islamic State advances in Syria</a>, <a href="http://news.intelwire.com/2014/08/gaza-dominates-talk-in-jihadist-finance.html" target="_blank">increasing disenchantment</a>&nbsp;with Nusra among global jihadists community, and this weekend's arrest of Shafi al Ajmi, one of the organization's top fundraisers, in Kuwait. His letter is both a criticism of Zawahiri and a warning that the al Qaeda leader is in danger of losing control of one of its top two affiliates.<br /><br /><b>UPDATE: </b>However, after several conversations about this post, it's important to note that Qahtani's status with al Nusra has changed recently, with more than one person describing his status as "rogue," although the consensus is that this is not a clean or total break. I initially omitted mention of this since the circumstances of Qahtani's problems with Nusra leadership are decidedly unclear, but it's an important point that I should have included in the first version of the story. I omitted it mainly because rumors about Qahtani's status have been a weekly occurrence for some time.<br /><br />In some ways, this undercuts the significance of the rebuke, making it deniable for Jabhat al Nusra's emir, Abu Mohammed al-Jowlani. However Qahtani still represents a significant constituency in al Nusra, and it's possible that deniability is the reason why this letter was attributed to him.<br /><br />Either way, it's indicative of problems, but slightly different ones. If Qahtani made this move without sanction from Jowlani, it may point to a potential splintering of al Nusra, which has been the subject of some speculation recently. If the letter's release was sanctioned, it allows al Nusra to make a strong expression of discontent with al Qaeda Central's leadership, while providing a face-saving opportunity to later deny or downplay the tone of the letter. <b>END UPDATE</b><br /><br />It's also worth noting that al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula, the other half of the top two, has issued two statements in recent days which carefully hedge around the issue of the Islamic State, opting not to openly condemn its declaration of the caliphate and instead praising its military advances and supporting its engagement in battle with U.S. forces in carefully parsed terms. This could reflect a lack of direction from Zawahiri, but it may also be a pragmatic effort to walk a middle line, out of fear that AQAP could splinter if it openly condemns IS.<br /><br /><i><a href="https://twitter.com/khanserai" target="_blank">Humera Khan</a> contributed to this article, but the views expressed are mine.</i><br /><br /><span style="font-style: italic;">Buy J.M. Berger's book, </span><a href="http://amzn.to/ahwBqH" style="font-style: italic;">Jihad Joe: Americans Who Go to War in the Name of Islam</a><br /><br /><b>RECENT PUBLICATIONS</b><br /><div><ul><li><a href="http://icsr.info/wp-content/uploads/2013/03/ICSR_Berger-and-Strathearn.pdf" target="_blank">Who Matters Online: Measuring Influence, Evaluating Content and Countering Violent Extremism in Online Social Networks</a></li><li><a href="http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2013/03/12/the_hate_list?page=full" target="_blank">The SPLC's Hate List: Is America really being overrun by right-wing militants?</a></li><li><a href="http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2013/02/20/unfollow" target="_blank">#Unfollow: The case for kicking terrorists off Twitter</a></li></ul></div><div class="blogger-post-footer"><p><a href="http://intelwire.egoplex.com/press.html">Media contact for this post</a> | <a href="http://intelwire.egoplex.com/sourcebooks.html">INTELWIRE Sourcebooks for Journalists</a> | <a href="http://multifacetedmedia.com/">(C) 2010, Mulitfaceted Media Group</a></p></div>Adminnoreply@blogger.com