Gibson leads Schreibman in 19th CD poll

Freshman Rep. Chris Gibson leads Democratic challenger Julian Schreibman by 16 percentage points in New York’s 19th Congressional District covering the upper Hudson Valley and Catskills region, according to a Siena Research Institute poll released this morning.

Gibson led Schreibman by 52 percent to 36 percent among 635 likely voters surveyed by phone Sept. 17 and 18. Eleven percent said they were undecided.

Sixty three percent of those surveyed said they didn’t know enough about Schreibman, an attorney from Ulster County, to have either a favorable or unfavorable opinion of him. Twenty nine percent said they didn’t know Gibson.

President Obama leads Mitt Romney among those surveyed, 49 percent to 45 percent. The poll had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.9 percentage points.

For Schreibman, who is trailing the incumbent Republican congressman among voters who back the Democratic president, part of his problem is boosting his support among members of his own party.

The survey found only 69 percent of Democrats support Schreibman while Gibson’s support among fellow Republicans was 83 percent.

Gibson led among independent voters not affiliated with a major party, 50 percent to 34 percent.
The race is a virtual dead heat in Dutchess and Ulster counties, where Gibson’s slight lead of 44 percent to 42 percent is within the poll’s margin of error. Much of that territory is currently represented by Democratic Rep. Maurice Hinchey of Saugerties.

Because of redistricting, about half of the 19th Congressional District will cover new areas next year with Gibson’s current congressional district losing its northern end.

At the new northern end of the district surrounding Albany, not not including the city itself, Gibson held a 35 percentage point lead, 63 percent to 28 percent. Schreibman’s campaign rolled out its first television ad earlier this week, running it only in the Albany media market.

At the western end of the new district, which includes a piece of eastern Broome County, Gibson led 51 percent to 37 percent.