Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

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FNUS21 KWNS 230918
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK CORR 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0418 AM CDT WED MAY 23 2007
VALID 231200Z - 241200Z
CORRECTED FOR DAY OF WEEK IN TEXT
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FL PANHANDLE THROUGH W-CNTRL
FL/SWRN GA...
...SYNOPSIS...
AMPLIFIED LARGE-SCALE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN WILL BE DOMINATED BY A
TROUGH ACROSS THE WEST WITH A RIDGE OVER THE EAST. AN UPPER-LEVEL
LOW CENTERED OVER ERN MT WILL LIFT NEWD TOWARDS MANITOBA...WHILE AN
UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH EJECTS EWD FROM THE SRN GREAT BASIN
ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS AND ONTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY THU MORNING.
AHEAD OF THIS LATTER FEATURE...LEE CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR ACROSS
THE SRN HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. FARTHER EAST...AN EXPANSIVE AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED JUST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST/CANADIAN MARITIME PROVINCES. A MODERATE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST.
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - FL PANHANDLE THROUGH W-CNTRL FL/SWRN
GA...
PRIMARY CONDITIONS: MODERATE WINDS / LOW RH / LONG-TERM DROUGHT
A 25 TO 35 MPH ELY LOW-LEVEL JET WILL LEAD TO SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH ACROSS MUCH OF FL/SRN GA FROM LATE MORNING
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THE OVERALL THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE SHOULD BE
SIMILAR TO TUESDAY...WITH ELY TRAJECTORIES LIMITING CRITICALLY LOW
RH CONDITIONS TO WRN PORTIONS OF FL/SWRN GA. HERE...TEMPERATURES
SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 80S WITH RH VALUES DROPPING TO 25 TO 35
PERCENT.
...E-CNTRL THROUGH SWRN NM/FAR SERN AZ...
SIMILAR TO TUESDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 80S...WITH
AFTERNOON RH VALUES OF 10 TO 15 PERCENT. ALTHOUGH WINDS ARE LIGHT
EARLY THIS MORNING...LOW/MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL INCREASE AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON AS A SRN GREAT BASIN SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES AND A
SURFACE LOW STRENGTHENS ACROSS NERN NM. SUSTAINED SWLY WINDS WILL
LIKELY REACH 20 TO 25 MPH TOWARDS EARLY EVENING. RECENT ABOVE-NORMAL
RAINFALL OVER MOST OF THE AREA AND THE RELATIVELY SHORT
JUXTAPOSITION OF STRONG WINDS/LOW RH SHOULD MITIGATE THE OVERALL
CRITICAL THREAT.
...SRN NV/PORTIONS OF SERN CA...
LATEST MESONET OBSERVATIONS INDICATE GUSTY NLY WINDS AOA 30 MPH HAVE
LEAD TO POOR OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERY /AROUND 10 TO 20 PERCENT/
IMMEDIATELY BEHIND A COLD FRONT ALONG THE I-15 CORRIDOR. MODEL
GUIDANCE FORECASTS ARE CONSISTENT IN RAPIDLY DIMINISHING WINDS LATER
THIS MORNING AS DIURNAL HEATING ENSUES AND THE THERMAL GRADIENT
WEAKENS.
..GRAMS.. 05/23/2007
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

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FNUS22 KWNS 230933
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0433 AM CDT WED MAY 23 2007
VALID 241200Z - 251200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FL PANHANDLE THROUGH W-CNTRL
FL/FAR SWRN GA...
...SYNOPSIS...
A MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS WILL LIFT NEWD
ACROSS THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY INTO NWRN ONTARIO BY EARLY FRI.
PRIMARY SURFACE LOW WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FEATURE ON A SIMILAR
TRACK...WHILE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT MOVES EWD TOWARDS THE WRN GREAT
LAKES AND BECOMES MORE QUASI-STATIONARY FARTHER S ACROSS THE SRN
PLAINS. AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND/MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL SINK SLOWLY SWD THROUGH THE PERIOD.
AS A RESULT...THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN.
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - FL PANHANDLE THROUGH W-CNTRL FL/FAR
SWRN GA...
PRIMARY CONDITIONS: MODERATE WINDS / LOW RH / LONG-TERM DROUGHT
PERSISTENT ELY FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN A SUBTLE WWD SHIFT TO
CRITICALLY LOW RH CONDITIONS FROM THE DAY 1 PERIOD. AFTERNOON RH
VALUES OF 25 TO 35 PERCENT WILL REMAIN LIKELY AS TEMPERATURES WARM
TO THE UPPER 80S. OVERALL WIND SPEEDS OUGHT TO BE SLIGHTLY LESS
COMPARED TO DAY 1 OWING TO A WEAKER SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT.
SUSTAINED SPEEDS FROM 15 TO 20 MPH SHOULD BE COMMON...MAINTAINING A
CRITICAL THREAT.
..GRAMS.. 05/23/2007
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...