Android could have 1 million daily activations in 2 weeks

Android has been growing at an extraordinary rate, there's no way to deny that, but Michael Degusta over at the understatement wanted to figure out the exact numbers that we should expect during Google's next earnings call. The numbers are certainly impressive.

What Degusta did was plot out the reported numbers for activations per day that we've heard from Google through various sources going back to April of last year, when Google reported a mere 60,000 Android activations per day. The latest number came from Google's earnings call in July,where it reported 550,000 daily activations for Android. Degusta then used a statistic that Andy Rubin had tweeted which said that Android activations were increasing by 4.4% every week. The numbers between that Andy Rubin tweet and Google's earnings call a couple weeks later confirmed that figure, and so Degusta plotted out how that compounded growth could look.

As you'll notice in the chart, Android activations began ramping up around May of this year. And, based on the 4.4% growth stated by Andy Rubin, Google should be seeing about 800,000 daily Android activations right now, and could cross the 1 million activations per day by October 20th. That certainly seems like a believable statistic given the incredible sales of phones like the Samsung Galaxy S II. But, just to be safe, Degusta also plotted a more conservative projection, not using the compounding growth curve, which would bring Google to 1 million daily Android activations by December.

Either way, the growth is crazy, and doesn't seem to be slowing down. Andy Rubin and crew must be quite proud.

Nothing like Ballmer having to announce the sales failures of WP7 every quarter. They are going to have to announce WP8 to just get the attention off the WP7 sales failures. Even with Nokia releasing WP7 handsets, there is no way MS is going to approach the activation levels of Android. At this point, Android has run away and his from WP7.

And apple was just bragging that they have sold 240 million iphones to date for the last 4 or so years. Basically android will do that in 240 days. Yup, apple definitely will get close to android with the i4s release.. lol

You should know that Apple has only made 5 iPhones. Comparing to the hundreds of Android devices and the fact that there are several point prices(from free to 300$ on contract) what the iPhone has achieved is amazing.

Seriously, people. C'mon. We know there are a lotta Android phones in the market and that's great. But, let's do the math here. In July Google claimed 550k/day. Now, the above estimate says 800k/day. That's an increase of 250k/day activations over a two month time period.

If it does reach 1 million by October 20th, that's another 200k/day activations in a single month. So, at 1 million daily activations, in a year's time that's 365 million activations. That's 1.095 billion in three years. At that rate, the entirety of the Earth's population will own Androids in a mere 20 years. That's providing it doesn't increase by 100% every 3 months like the article claims. If it does the time will be cut to roughly 6 years.

Uh... that's highly improbable. The above also doesn't take into account that not every individual on the planet has access to, the means to, or the ability to use a smartphone. It sounds great but... really?

I don't think that the argument here is that the growth will continue into perpetuity. Of course at some point we're going to see a stall in growth, but we haven't reached saturation yet and there is still plenty of room for growth.

I certainly wouldn't expect the line to keep rising as Degusta has it. Obviously, it will level out eventually. I certainly don't expect it to hit the 3.5 million per day he has projected by the end of the year. But, I wouldn't be surprised to find out in the next earnings call that Android is around the 800-900k per day range, and at 1 million per day by the end of the year.

The number has room to rise a fair bit, because there are still quite a lot of feature phone users switching to smart phones. No one is trying to extrapolate this data farther than this year.

That's only if you're a user who bricks three brand new DROID Xs in a row.

Let's test your claims:

1) Something very rarely if ever force closes on my phone. I can't even recall the last time the browser did that on me.

2) the market works just fine. I download new apps and updates off it almost every day without a sweat.

3) Two out of the three Android phones I've had for any length of time (had a fourth for two weeks because I tried then had to drop a carrier) have received major OS updates. The first, my X, had two major OS updates. Once to Group and once to Gingerbread. Both times when bugs have popped up from the updates, subsequent updates have been released to fix those bugs. My Atrix, the other phone, has received one major OS update (and the model had a couple of minor updates before I bought one), and so far hasn't exhibited any bugs that make me think another major update needs to be rushed out.

The third phone was a CLIQ, which, quite frankly, is a CLIQ. But seriously, it was released at the dawn of Android and worked just fine as a basic Android phone with Cupcake.
By now if you buy a new Android phone you can usually tell which ones will actually get updated with new versions of the OS and which won't.

Hawk will be hawk he is an idiot, I rarely doubt he could brick a droid x unless he did it trying to install a custom rom and even that way it can be Fixed in 30 minutes, if he wants the latest version of android all he has to do is get a nexus :)

Yeah well at least we don't have to plug our phones into a computer and wait 6 and half hours for a simple update, our phones can make phone calls, our phones have real gorilla glass and don't scratch and can survive drops unlike that fake glass piece of s**t, overpriced application launcher that wants to be called a smartphone. Yeah and what happens when your phone freezes up on ya, oh yeah, plug it back into the computer and wait another 6 and half hours, ya crapplebot

Ignore the previous comment, he forgot his medication. You. May want to go for the nexus, or I heard samsung is doing well too, my recommendation buy in november-december that way you can see some reviews and end up winning

17.roboto (unregistered)

As we've said before, Android sales have passed Apple, and are increasing, but the iPhone still has a lot more overall marketshare than Android.

Also, as we've stated before, the term "success" means different things for each company. Apple finds its success in the highest profit margins (which it has) and Google finds success in market share (which it is taking at an incredible rate).

Both devices have a loyal following. And, both platforms have their pros and cons.

We're sorry if you read bias in anything we write, but we see it as giving credit where credit is due.

30.jacko (unregistered)

Looks like it'll be Prime for me, maybe Vigor, and the Rhyme for my lady.

The Rhyme charm thing worked. She saw it and wanted it, and here I was thinking the Rhyme was going to be a bust. I did show her some of the Prime teasers and her eyes lit up. It looked like they said, "Birthmas!" (Clarification: her birthday is right around X-mas.)

+3 here...Pops and the stepmom will upgrade to smartphones finally. Stratosphere for pops, Rhyme (or possibly iP4s - but the screen may be too small :-( sorry Apple, is it SO hard to make a 4" screen!) for momma and the Vigor or Nexus for me :-)

Awesome for Android. Just wish that more developers would create on par apps for it like on the Appstore. Even if they had ads on it. I only have the demo of Axe to Face on my iPhone.. I want the full but Ad filled version on my EVO!

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