Thursday, November 1, 2007

Commodities: They Aren't Just For Gamblers Anymore

That China could attract foreign capital and export freely has meant that a nation that was in the dark ages for 60 years was suddenly accepted as a trading partner, and that opened up huge possibilities.

But hasn’t the sector got too hot in the short term?

I don’t believe in the short term; I think it’s the wrong way to invest. We have suddenly multiplied the consuming population by four or five times by having this open world. This process won’t play out for 100 years or maybe 150 years.

Booming commodity prices caused by booming demand is always accompanied by volatility. Take a look at charts from the 70's in grains for an example. But volatility can be your friend if you plan for it. Ben Graham described the market as a manic depressive, one day paying too much and the next selling too low. Commodity markets are even more like that.