Debby Does Florida

DISCLAIMER: this album does not contain Fijian freight train barrels nor Alana's oiled rump. It does contain pictures of surfing during a few fun days of surf produced by Tropical Storm Debby in the Gulf of Mexico.

The Gulf is no surf Mecca, clutching an average ridable swell of just 4% it probably ranks amongst the highest ratio of stoked surfers to lack of waves anywhere in the world. Other such locales vying for this crown include the Great Lakes and the far reaches of the UK's Channel Coast where the surf is generally average at best but the population froths on the smallest humps and bumps, searching out 40mph onshores and tracking low pressure systems with stalker like fixation. There's probably a decent argument that these guys are in many ways as committed to our shared lifestyle, if not more so.

The good news with Debby is she's not done yet and is currently forecast to skip over the Florida Panhandle and head out into the Atlantic where she could potentially reintensify bringing waves for the East Coast and eventually Europe. We've gone into more detail on that here.

"Amazons was a secret for surfers on the panhandle for a while." Saying the stoked voices, Harley Van Hyning "Word has gotten out over the years and it's not so much a secret anymore. East Coast pros have been at Amazons in past years and the spot is not all that accessible. The only way to access it is by boat or the paddle across the pass.

"For Amazons to break you need solid swell. That in itself is not common on the Gulf so it doesn't break much. The Debby swell was great for Amazons. It was solid 3 foot overhead to some double overhead sets. It could have been all time, but stiff offshore winds created some bump in the face. Extra paddling effort was needed getting into the wave with the wind about blowing surfers off the back. Had the winds been light offshore I guarantee it would have been a zoo! We surfed it with around 20 guys max."

Pensacola Beach Pier, at the peak of the swell on Sunday, June 24. The beaches were doubled red flagged and the local authority advice was to not head out into the surf - which is just what all local surfers want to hear. Pretty much a call to action, the proverbial red rag to the bull.

"The wind was blowing 20-40mph offshore and the day was winding down when I grabbed these" Said photog Meagan Glover. "The paddle out wasn't as brutal as it had been since the tide was now ebbing. But, the current was still ripping and the surfers on the outside were getting some great rides, sharing their stoke with the spectators packed tight on the pier."

We mentioned yesterday that the MSW forecast was showing a possible track east into the Atlantic for Debby and interestingly the NHC's guidance this morning suggests this is now the most likely route, with the storm remaining tropical as it heads up the US East Coast.

"Assuming that the cyclone will emerge over the Atlantic some re-intensification is expected. Say the National Hurricane Centre. "The official intensity forecast in the 3 to 5 day time range is close to the model consensus but could be conservative given the potential influence of the Gulf Stream."

"Surface synoptic data and radar imagery suggest that Debby has turned toward the east over the past few hours. The storm is apparently beginning to respond to a mid-level trough over the Eastern United States. Some of the dynamical model guidance in particular the typically best-performing GFS and ECMWF global models are now taking Debby significantly faster to the east and northeast over the forecast period. It is worth noting that the track forecasts from these two models have now come into rather close agreement.

"The UK Met Office model is by the far the fastest and shows the cyclone near the Canadian maritimes in four days or less. Whereas the latter scenario seems unrealistic the overall change in the guidance supports a faster track across Florida and into the Atlantic than the previous NHC predictions. The new official forecast track lies between the previous NHC track and the ECMWF and GFS solutions.