23 November 2011 5:35 PM

Egypt: between the devil and the deep blue sea

The violence in Egypt has continued to escalate as the demonstrators out on the streets insist that the army council step down immediately. A brief truce brokered by clerics earlier today appears to have collapsed. There is no doubt that Egypt’s military regime has behaved, and will continue to behave, with great brutality. But as I wrote here two days ago, Egypt is between the devil and the deep blue sea. Bad as the military regime may be, the most likely alternative of a Muslim Brotherhood regime would be worse. The army cracks down on dissent, which is bad enough; the Islamists, however, crack down on the freedom just to be.

The Egyptian military regime seems more than a little uncertain about what to do, as well it might be. For it too is between a rock and a hard place. If it allows the planned parliamentary elections to go ahead on November 28, it is likely that the Muslim Brotherhood will gain power. If it postpones the elections, however, that would enrage the protesters even more.

The head of the army council, Field Marshal Tantawi, has said the elections planned for five days hence will go ahead and the presidential election will be brought forward to next summer. He has also floated the idea of a referendum on the army’s role-- presumably on the assumption that the silent majority of ‘Middle Egypt’ would vote to keep the army in power in order to keep the Islamists out. None of Tantawi’s proposals, however, has pacified the protesters who are clearly on a roll.

The Muslim Brotherhood, however, is said to be happy with Tantawi’s assurances. Indeed, from their point of view what’s not to like? The elections will probably bring them to power. To make matters even more complex, the Brotherhood has been steadily making inroads into the army itself. So it’s shaping up to be not just army v protesters but army v army. Either way, therefore, the Brotherhood wins.

Egypt is the issue where democracy meets sentimentality head on. For just as those Egyptians who yearn for true democracy and human rights are probably heading for a most terrible reality check, so those in the west from David Cameron downwards, who so naively bought into the fantasy that deposing Mubarak would lead to democracy because the protesters were on Twitter and Facebook, will eventually have to face up to the fact that in Egypt there will be no good outcome. The alternatives are a bad outcome that is disastrous for the west, and a bad outcome that maintains a fragile equilibrium for the west.

Of course people’s sympathies are with those at the receiving end of the Egyptian army’s tear gas, rubber bullets and worse. When it comes to public image, men in braids and shades cannot compete with civilians being mown down while crying out for democracy.

But sentimentalised democracy – elections without the prior heavy lifting of the establishment of free institutions – is the route not to freedom but yet more abuses of power. And the brutal fact is that if the army council departs the Egyptian stage, the Islamists will take power – and then the outcome will not just be a snuffing out of human rights for the Egyptians but a whole new ballgame of threat for the west.

Share this article:

Comments

You can follow this conversation by subscribing to the comment feed for this post.

I live in Upper Egypt and take a great interest in what is happening at present. Speaking to ordinary people here in Luxor it appears the Salafine and the Muslim Brothers are really popular, here they give people meat and the average person is desperately poor so they look set to gain a lot of votes. One serious point is that the Government has stamped the meat which was one reason some believe a deal has been struck one way or another for the army and the Islamists to share power. More seriously than any other issue though is that of the current Egyptian Economy. Under Mubarak in January Egypt had reserves of about $40 Billion, due to the fall in the tourist industry and workers in Libya coming home it has dropped to less than half that. This gives only 4 months money for purchase of imports, most importantly grain. The grain costs are high and Egypt subsidises the bread massively. One EGP for 2 Kilos of flat bread. That is about 10p. The government bakery near me is going day and night with a never ending queue for this cheap bread. People eat it with Foul (beans) and that is how many exist and by the way have far too many children to keep. What was an average income £30 per month is down to almost nothing for many people now. So if the Islamists take power and put in place measures that will deter tourists, maybe make threats to Israel, have ongoing protests, revenues will drop further, they will have to borrow to buy the grain perhaps but they can't borrow forever. Most of the population are naive, illiterate and unaware of anything, even that the bread is subsidised. They sincerely believe that Egypt is a very rich country, mubarak stole the money and that the Islamists will make everything ok. At times I despair.

I may be right, I may be wrong i don't know but i realy think the only way the Arab countries can achieve peace and democracy is to reform the belief first, if they don't reform their culture and religion things just can go around circles and circles. Yes, they got rid of Hosni Mubarak, Gaddafi and Saddam Hussein but this doesn't mean they will have full liberation and democracy, i just think they need to reform their teaching perhabs they need something like the "Haskalah Goup".

"those in the west from David Cameron downwards, who so naively bought into the fantasy that deposing Mubarak would lead to democracy" - There's a terrible superciliousness on the part of western leaders who, pretending to look at Arabs as equals, in fact look down on them, thinking they'll bless them with the west-style democracy. What if the Arabs don't want it? What if the new, young and modern generation of Arabs wants a decent paternalistic regime (Mubarak plus), with some moderate Islamic presence and, first and foremost, blooming economy replete with employment possibilities? What if they despise Cameron-cum-Obama's gift of democracy as rotten and decadent?

Post a comment

Comments are moderated, and will not appear on this weblog until the moderator has approved them. They must not exceed 500 words. Web links cannot be accepted, and may mean your whole comment is not published.