Path to Scotland’s independence in Europe

If you think Brexit complicated British politics, try living in Scotland.

Those Scots who favour independence – 45 per cent of us, including me in 2014 – thought our time had come when David Dimbleby announced “we’re out” of the EU.

We are fairly good Europeans in Scotland, where 62 per cent of us voted last September to remain so. And we had been told in no uncertain terms during our independence referendum that the only way we could be guaranteed continued EU citizenship was to remain part of the UK.

Why? Because untrustworthy types like the Spanish, with their secessionist troublemakers, would veto our continued European Union membership if we voted for independence.

What we did not expect then was that we would be dragged out of the EU on the back of English votes. Like Prime Minister David Cameron we assumed the Remainers would walk it.

So, while many voters in England and Wales discovered the meaning of Regrexit, we in Scotland simply shrugged and reminded ourselves that we had an escape route. All we had to do was wait for the First Minister, Nicola Sturgeon, to call indyref2 and we would be welcomed back to Brussels with open arms.

Well, it hasn’t worked out like that. First, the polls show that support for independence has not increased significantly since Brexit (although it has not fallen either). Indeed, Brexit might just not happen if some people in high places in England get their way. At least not a hard Brexit. If there was a special deal for Scotland (still a possibility until a final decision otherwise) the independence cause would not be helped.

Second, Ms Sturgeon knows better than silly Mr Cameron that you should never call a referendum until you know you are sure to win it. And, despite all the hostile mutterings from Unionists about neverendums in Scotland until the SNP get the result they want, it is widely understood that if the Scots voted ‘No’ to independence a second time that would probably settle matters for a generation.

So, while England frets about how Brexit will play out, we in Scotland cannot but conflate it with indyref2 and an end to the union with England. Two other issues complicate matters further.

One, it is thought that about a third of Scottish National Party voters favoured Brexit. They see no point in throwing off the constitutional shackles of Westminster only to swap them for those of Brussels. When Remainers like me who favour independence point out that I quite fancy Scotland being as independent as France or Spain in the EU, I never quite get a coherent answer. But that’s just another debate looming in Scotland as the likelihood of indyref2 grows stronger.

Second, the SNP no longer enjoys a majority in Holyrood where Labour has collapsed and the Tories are now the second force, albeit by a distance. So successful has been the SNP in recent times that it is hard for even the most optimistic independista to see the party making further electoral progress. From such a lofty peak of popularity it surely has only one way to travel from now on – and that is not upwards.

The one encouraging sign for those seeking indyref2 when the time is right is the Scottish Parliament’s current majority for independence. Sometimes it is forgotten that you don’t have to be an SNP supporter to favour independence. Greens, socialists and up to 40 per cent of Labour voters in Scotland and a significant number of LibDems also back independence.

So, while Brexit has muddied the political waters in Scotland, it has also helped to hasten indyref2. The betting surely must be that Nicola Sturgeon will call it before time runs out along with parliamentary support for independence – or when it becomes clear that life in the UK outside the EU is less comfortable for Scotland than a recovered place among our fellow Europeans.

It used to be said that devolution was a process, not an event. The same goes for independence. Nicola Sturgeon is now working her way through the process of looking at all the options presented by Brexit before, almost inevitably, rejecting them in favour of independence. That way she will claim she has examined all the possibilities, including trying to block Brexit for Scotland, and found none of them more attractive than independence. Brexit has merely set that process in train but this time with some urgency.

News Bites

May to hold talks with Merkel in Berlin
Theresa May is due to hold talks with German Chancellor Angela Merkel as she seeks to make progress on negotiating Brexit. The PM will travel to Berlin for the meeting at the Chancellery. It comes a day ahead of a speech on Saturday in which she is expected to set out the “security partnership” she wants to maintain with the EU. The UK is under pressure to reveal more detail about the final relationship it wants with the EU. Mrs May and her ministers are setting out what has been dubbed “the road to Brexit” in a series of speeches. BBC news, February 16

UK aims to keep financial rules close to EU
The UK is ready to set out its vision for how it wants financial services to operate after Brexit and favours an ambitious “mutual recognition” of regulations to preserve the City of London’s access to the EU. Under Britain’s proposal, the UK and the EU would recognise each other’s regulatory and supervisory regimes and would have aligned rules at the point of Brexit, with a mechanism that would monitor any divergence. Three senior figures briefed on Brexit discussions in the cabinet said that the government will back the proposal, which is also favoured by Mark Carney, the Bank of England governor. Financial Times, February 16

Business leader warns May against harsh immigration policy
British companies are facing a recruitment crisis, with labour shortages hitting critical levels in some sectors, according to a business leader who has urged the government to produce details on a post-Brexit immigration system. Adam Marshall, the director general of the British Chambers of Commerce, said the lack of candidates for some jobs was biting hard, and he warned ministers against bringing forward a “draconian and damaging” visa or work permit system. Surveys by the BCC showed that nearly three-quarters of firms trying to recruit had been experiencing difficulties “at or near the highest levels since [BCC] records began over 25 years ago”, he said. The Guardian, February 16

Lecturers want ‘radical’ tuition fee review
University staff are calling for a “radical” overhaul of tuition fees and higher education funding in England in a review of student finance. Sally Hunt, leader of the University and College Union, says the review must be more than “tinkering at the edges”. The review, expected to be formally announced in the near future, follows a promise by the prime minister to examine the cost of university. Theresa May said the review would show “we have listened and we have learned”. Ms Hunt, whose members are threatening strike action next week in a pensions dispute, says there needs to be a “fundamental look at university funding”. BBC news, February 16

Shampoo ‘as bad a health risk as car fumes’
Shampoo, oven cleaner, deodorant and other household products are as significant a source of the most dangerous form of air pollution as cars, research has found. Scientists studying air pollution in Los Angeles found that up to half of particles known as volatile organic compounds (VOCs) came from domestic products, which also include paint, pesticides, bleach and perfumes. These compounds degrade into particles known as PM2.5, which cause respiratory problems and are implicated in 29,000 premature deaths each year in the UK. Traffic had been assumed to be the biggest source of air pollution. The new findings, published in the journal Science, led to warnings that countries may struggle to hit pollution targets, with most tackling vehicle emissions. The Times, February 16

US rejects China bid for Chicago Stock Exchange
The US has rejected a proposed merger between the Chicago Stock Exchange and a Chinese-linked investor group. The decision comes after more than two years of reviews by officials. The tie-up was initially approved by the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States, pending further approval by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). But US politicians, including President Trump, have said letting a Chinese firm invest in a US exchange was a bad idea. Under the proposal, the Chinese-led North America Casin Holdings group would have bought a minority share of the privately owned Chicago Stock Exchange. BBC news, February 16

Labour gets 16,000 emails in five days urging it to consult on Brexit
More than 16,000 people have emailed Labour over the past five days, urging the party to consult members on Brexit after MPs said the topic was being ignored by its most senior policy body. The emails from party members will be examined by the party’s national policy forum (NPF), which meets this weekend in Leeds, and whose members include the shadow cabinet and trade union leaders. Labour has set up eight policy commissions since last year’s general election, to consult members and develop policy, but none focus on Brexit. The party has said Brexit is covered under the international policy commission, involving Keir Starmer, the shadow Brexit secretary, but that commission is not at the moment accepting submissions on Brexit. The Guardian, February 15