Saturday, August 07, 2010

A brief look at the ridings

Back in 2006, I started things out with a "brief" look at the ridings. It seemed like a good way to get started on 2006. So here it goes again for 2010.

The following is my gut reading on each of the 55 ridings. Polls, vibes, and your tips will help me as there are countless adjustments in the weeks ahead.

But, as I've said before, I really think this election will come down to a riding-by-riding, candidate-by-candidate, organization-by-organization, street fight.

Campbellton-Restigouche Centre - currently Liberal

This seat leans Liberal. As Speaker for most of the term, Roy Boudreau hasn't had the profile of a minister or even a backbencher. That said, this has been a traditionally Liberal riding (one of the 10 that stayed Liberal in 1999). The PCs have chosen the same candidate as last time 'round, so that bodes well for Boudreau. Still worth monitoring however.

While much has been said about Donald Arseneault's future because of the long series of bad economic news for his riding, I find it hard to imagine he will lose his seat. He got 68% of the vote in 2006 and since then has been a senior cabinet minister, climbing the ladder all of the way to Deputy Premier. That said, the troubles that the riding has seen over the past four years will made it a bit of a rough ride so, for now, it should be kept in the "leans Liberal" column.

Roland Hache was the only non-incumbent Liberal to win in 1999. He survived a challenge from star candidate and Lord chief of staff Hermel Vienneau in 2003. Hache is seeking re-election. Nuff said.

Current projection: Safe Liberal

Bathurst - currently Liberal

Since the departure of Marcelle Mersereau, this seat has been a nail biter every time. Though Nancy McKay is officially non-partisan at the moment (as she winds up her role as COO of the Moncton World Track & Field championships) she has already launched a Facebook page indicating she'll be taking her third run at Brian Kenny. This will probably be close again, but with Kenny's profile as a rising member of the Graham cabinet, he probably has the edge.

The Liberals have (at the last minute) delivered on their commitment to reopen the Caraquet Hospital. That should eliminate any thought that this riding could be in play.

Current projection: Safe Liberal

Lameque-Shippagan-Miscou - currently Progressive Conservative

While one assumes that PC fortunes will be on the decline in Francophone New Brunswick from 2006 when they had a Francophone leader, Paul Robichaud is untouchable.

Current projection: Safe PC

Centre-Peninsule-Saint-Saveur - currently Liberal

Despite a presumed strong challenge by former MLA Louis-Philippe McGraw last time around, Denis Landry won by nearly 1000 votes. Since then he's been minister of transportation. To my knowledge no minister of transportation from a rural riding has ever lost a re-election bid. And I can't imagine one ever will (with the obvious exception of an election where the whole cabinet is swept away).

Current projection: Safe Liberal

Tracadie-Sheila - currently Progressive Conservative

This will be one of the most interesting ridings to watch. The NDP has gone all-in on this riding. The question is will they take left votes from the Liberals or anti-government votes from the Tories. The NDP leader and his party have directed more of their fire at the PCs than the Grits, which leads one to how they must answer the question. This is likely the only three-way race in the province (with the possible exception of Charlotte-Campobello). Will Landry hold enough of his vote to hang on? Will Duguay pull an upset an restore the the NDP to the legislature for the first time since 2005? Or will the Liberals sneak up the middle in an anti-government vote split and take this seat for the first time since 1994?

Carmel Robichaud's departure from cabinet may diminish her chances, but a look at the results in this riding suggest it should be hard for a Liberal to lose. In 2006, Roger Duguay's votes came almost entirely at the expense of the Tories. One presumes he'll have a candidate here this time that will do the same thing (though to a lesser extent). I don't have a good read here so I don't want to be too definitive, but for now I think it is safe to say Robichaud will go back to Fredericton.

Bill Fraser won a decisive victory in 2006, beating Tanker Malley by nearly 1500 votes. This time around the PCs are targetting this riding hard, including the promise of a permanent MRI for the Miramichi Hospital. Fraser has been an aggressive constituency MLA however and has a great deal of street cred on the hospital thanks to his past as leader of the 'save our hospital' coalition against the former government.

Seat projection: Safe Liberal

Miramichi Centre - currently Liberal

Of all of the seats on the Miramichi, this riding has the most Conservative history. It went PC in 1982, and it very nearly did so again in 1991 when CoR leader Arch Pafford split the vote and the race ended in essentially a three-way tie. This time around Newcastle has taken the brunt of the bad news on the Miramichi. And the PC candidate is Robert Trevors, a city councilor and EA to popular MP Tilly Gordon. It is hard to say which way this will go.

This riding is, on paper, a conservative stronghold. That said Rick Brewer has been an excellent constituency MLA and managed to get re-elected against popular former CoR MLA Brent Taylor last time around. But I keep coming to back to how, on paper, this really should be a Tory riding.

This seat is traditionally Liberal but has been a stronghold for popular PC MLA (and now Senator) Rose-May Poirier. With Poirier off of the ballot, one assumes that it could be poised to return to its Liberal roots. Her former EA is the candidate and it will be a question of whether he can capture his old boss' magic.

This is a traditionally Liberal seat occupied by the Liberal leader. While it was a close call thanks to boundary changes in 2006, it seems like it should be safe re-election ride for Shawn Graham this time around.

Seat projection: Safe Liberal

Kent South - currently Progressive Conservative

Claude Williams has proved his mettle three times. This seat will stay blue until he moves on.

This new (as of 2006) riding may someday rival Shediac as the best Liberal seat in the province. Bernard LeBlanc will sail back into office.

Seat projection: Safe Liberal

Dieppe Centre-Lewisville - currently Progressive Conservative

PC incumbent Cy LeBlanc won by a hair in both 2003 and 2006, and this time around he isn't reoffering. Rumours abound as to why, but regardless a sure Liberal pick up has become an even surer Liberal pick up. It is hard to call an unheld seat so sure this soon so I will leave it in the likely column, but just barely so.

The PCs are mounting a strong enough candidate here to keep this in the lean column, but the lack of the Bernard Lord factor should diminish Tory prospects across Moncton, and especially in this riding which Chris Collins managed to capture by a massive margin in the 2007 by-election.

Tory-turned-Grit Joan MacAlpine-Stiles is not reoffering, but Anne Marie Ford (well known for voicing the radio ads of Ford's Apothecary which she co-owns) is a formidable candidate. The restoration of the Petitcodiac, her name recognition and the lack of the Bernard Lord factor should make this a lock but, again, the PCs have a very strong candidate in Sue Stultz so we'll have to watch it closely.

Marie-Claude Blais gave Mike Murphy a real scare in 2006. Now, he isn't on the ballot and she's been running hard for months (if not years). Can Kevin Robart work his magic? This will be the hottest race in the southeast.

This should be a safe PC seat with popular incumbent John Betts on the ballot. However, the considerable Liberal investments in ABU could play in their favour. A strong Liberal candidate has been found in the name of Russ Mallard, and he could put this seat in play. Time will tell if the Liberals can deliver, but for now Betts has the edge.

Cabinet minister Wally Stiles won with one of the largest margins in the province last time around - as a Conservative. Three years after crossing the floor, can Stiles bring enough voters over with him to win a fourth term? Helping him is the fact that the PC candidate is from outside of the riding and won't move in (and give up her seat on Riverview council in so doing) unless she is elected. Will that be enough to overcome the Conservative tendencies of the riding? Hard to say. This will be the second best race to watch in the southeast.

While the Liberals managed to snag this seat in 2003 on the heels of massive anger at the Lord government over cuts to agriculture, in any normal cycle this seat is out of the Liberals possible grasp.

Seat projection: Safe PC

Hampton-Kings - currently Progressive Conservative

While Kit Hickey's background should allow her to unite much of the NDP vote here with the Liberals, even with those forces combined she would finish well behind Tory stalwart Bev Harrison.

Seat projection: Safe PC

Quispamsis - currently Liberal

Health Minister Mary Schryer has been one of the fastest rising stars in the Liberal caucus. Fresh from election, she joined the cabinet as a junior minister, before being promoted to the third largest department in government (Social Development) and then to mega-ministry Health. Her high profile should allow her to be re-elected but with Quispamsis taking a big jump on property taxes and a big Tory push in suburban Saint John she'll need to work hard.

Stuart Jamieson is the only non-Tory to have ever won this riding - and he has done it five times. Gary Keating was hand picked by Jamieson to succeed him and as Liberals go, probably has the next best change to hold the riding for the Grits. Can he do it? This could be a nail-biter.

Margaret-Ann Blaney's margin of victory has slipped every election. From a massive 2853 vote margin in 1999, to 679 in 2003, to a razor-thin 91 votes in 2006. This will definitely be a riding to watch. However, for the moment I believe it belongs in the lean Tory category.

The only time in recent memory that the Liberals haven't won this seat was in 1999. Then, the Tories had a huge sweep and carried this riding with 36%. How? The NDP had 28%. While the loss of Roly MacIntyre will make this seat a lot harder for the Liberals to win, the NDP will not be able to score anywhere near 28%. And if the Tories can only get 36% here in their best year ever, I would say this would be among the safest Liberal seats in the province.

Along with Saint John East, Saint John Harbour is definitely among the two most reliably left of centre seats in the province. Without Elizabeth Weir on the ballot for the NDP, this will be a Liberal stronghold for many years to come.

Seat projection: Safe Liberal

Saint John Portland - currently Progressive Conservative

Trevor Holder has won nailbiters in both 2003 and 2006. However, without him having to defend the record of a sitting government he should be in better stead this time out. He doesn't have it in the bag by any means however and will have to work hard to hold on for a fourth term.

Jack Keir has proved one of the most able rookie MLAs in legislative history. Last year he was recognized by uber-geeks Jacques Poitras and Dan McHardie in several categories for being a strong asset to the Liberals.

All of that said, this is a traditionally Conservative riding (one of six to vote PC in 1995) which Keir won by a hair in 2006. The PCs are touting Dr. Jim Parrott as a star candidate and cabinet material, while Keir may still be licking the wounds of the NB Power debate in a riding that is dominated by hundreds of workers from the NB Power plants of Coleson Cove and Point Lepreau.

Despite Keir's strength, this will be a tough one for the Liberals.

Seat projection: Toss up (changed to leans PC on Sept. 14 and to safe PC on Sept. 22)

Tony Huntjens is retiring and this seat is setting up to be a lot like 1995, when Huntjens first ran - at that time for COR.

In 1995 - the Liberals had two strong candidates (both incumbents whose ridings had merged) who fought a divisive battle for the nomination, with the female Liberal winning. In 2010 - the Liberals had two strong candidates (both newcomers) who fought a divisive battle for the nomination, with the female Liberal winning.

In 1995 - a candidate who, on paper, was arguably stronger than the official PC candidate, ran for COR despite the fact that COR was in decline and only won 7% of the provincial vote and zero seats in that election. In 2010 - a candidate who, on paper, is arguably stronger than the official PC candidate, is running for PANB despite the fact that PANB is unproven and will likely win zero seats in the election.

In 1995 - the Liberal captured only 46% of the vote, but won handily as both the PC candidate and COR candidate finished with about 25% each. In 2006 - the Liberal candidate lost by only 282 votes with no right wing split. In 2010 - ???

This seat was won by Eugene McGinley by a huge landslide in 2003. In 2006, he barely hung on. Was that due to declining Liberal fortunes in a district with new boundaries, or to the candidacy of Jack Carr riding on the coattails of his popular brother?

Is new Liberal candidate Barry Armstrong, who in the past advocated against the Liberal government's ferry cuts likely to bring in more support for the Liberals or less? Will PANB leader Kris Austin who a few short months ago sought the PC nomination bleed votes away from Tory Ross Wetmore?

While he won it fairly comfortably in 2003, Liberal T. J. Burke won by a narrow margin in 2006. Meanwhile, Tory candidate Troy Lifford was nominated early and is working hard. This will be a race to watch.

Despite provincial controversies, Kelly Lamrock seems to have built up a very solid relationship with his constituents. While the Tories will clearly be targeting Fredericton as their best chance for picking up urban seats, Lamrock is likely to be able to hang on.

Finance Minister Greg Byrne won by 1000 votes in his return to provincial politics in 2006. And that with a strong third place finish for then NDP leader Allison Brewer. One presumes that much of that NDP support came from campus, and that much if it will now shift to Byrne. That said, Tory candidate Craig Leonard made a strong name for himself in the area as a vocal opponent of reforms to French immersion. He, like Troy Lifford, was nominated early and has been campaigning hard. This will be a tight race.

Rick Miles has shown himself to be a rising star in Liberal ranks. In his first weeks on the job he was elected caucus chair, and later rose to join the cabinet. He has had the good luck of drawing a weak Conservative opponent in far-right, anti-government, parachute candidate Brian Macdonald. Macdonald's style of politics is not likely to fly in a riding dominated by civil servants. A well run NDP campaign, with provincial campaign chair Dominic Cardy running here, could cause some weird things to happen with vote splits, but it seems likely that Miles will earn a second term.

Jack Carr managed to hold this seat in the 2008 by-election despite the Liberals throwing their whole Fredericton organization behind this race. A rural riding held by a guy whose twin is the popular incumbent next door and whose leader is a rural guy from two ridings over should not have a hard time getting re-elected.

Seat projection: Safe PC

York - currently Progressive Conservative

This riding hasn't returned the same party twice in a row since Les Hull was re-elected for the Tories in 1982. Since then it has gone Liberal in 1987, COR in 1991, Liberal in 1995, PC in 1999, Liberal in 2003 and PC in 2006. Based on history alone, one would probably want to hedge on this one. Couple that with the fact that long-time and popular Harvey mayor Winston Gamblin is the Liberal candidate and you've got a race on your hands.

Seat projection: Toss up (changed to leans PC on Sept. 6 and to safe PC on Sept. 20)

York North - currently Progressive Conservative

Though Kirk MacDonald won handily in 2006 (thanks to his entry to cabinet and a big split among Liberals), this election is likely to be more like 2003 when MacDonald won by only 101 votes. A Liberal candidate who won by acclamation is not likley to suffer from internal strife. That said, this riding does include David Alward's home town of Nackawic and MacDonald is very active in the constituency. For now, I would say that the PCs have a slight edge but it is worth keeping an eye on.

Larry Kennedy, now the dean of the legislature, is seeking a seventh term. Last time around he had the largest margin of any Liberal in the province. I don't think that he will win that handily this time, but the odds should be in his favour.

This new riding saw a battle of two incumbents in 2006. While Burt Paulin lost at that time by about 1000 votes to Percy Mockler, he won the 2009 by-election by about 1000 votes to Mockler's former EA. With Mockler (first elected in 1982) no longer in contention, Paulin is probably pretty safe.

Mado Dubé has had no trouble getting re-elected since she first ran in 1999. While some Liberals argue that Alward's relative unpopularity in francophone New Brunswick (as compared to Lord) and the fact that the Liberals have invested obscene amounts of pork here since 2006 should give them a shot, I just don't see it.

Seat projection: Safe PC

Madawaska-les-Lacs - currently Progressive Conservative

Jeannot Volpé's retirement changes everything in this riding which he has held since 1995. The PCs had a star candidate, who lost the nomination to Volpé's former chief of staff who had been unceremoniously dumped by Alward when he took the leadership. That likely means that there is a bit of a PC split here. That probably isn't enough to tilt the riding into Liberal hands, but it is worth watching.

18 comments:

I enjoyed the thorough analysis, nbpolitico. I'm inclined to think, however, that both the tangibles and the intangibles might suggest a seat count that isn't quite as solid for the Liberals. Alward may be a bit of a cold fish, but Graham's Liberals haven't managed outpoll Alward's Tories since before the NB Power deal was announced; that has to at least somewhat concern the Liberals. I don't doubt the Liberals' ability to catch up (they have a more-than-capable team at their disposal), but that's what they're going to be doing over the next couple of weeks: playing catch-up. They have their share of good constituency MLAs, but even if the PCs only end up outpolling the Liberals by about 3 points on election day (less than they have been as of late), it still means that the Liberals would lose a great deal of their MLAs, high-quality or not.

I'll follow up with a post of my own riding-by-riding look. Let's start up some discussion!

I don't agree that this riding is worth monitoring. Roy Boudreau has been a fairly benign speaker (at least for the raucus leg sessions to which we've been subjected as of late), and his riding had been reliably Liberal, even in harsh times for the party province-wide.

Current projection: Safe Liberal

2)Dalhousie-Restigouche East - currently Liberal

I'll agree with your assessment here. Arsenault probably won't win a supermajority this time (more due to the economic problems the area is experiencing than anything to do with Arsenault of the Liberals), but it wouldn't be overly-generous to say that he'll still probably win with 55% of the vote or more.

Current projection: Leans Liberal

3)Nigadoo-Chaleur - currently Liberal

Haché, for reasons already stated by nbpolitico.

Current projection: Safe Liberal

4)Bathurst - currently Liberal

Nancy McKay made this race close (twice) when the Liberals and PCs were neck-and-neck province-wide. Hard to see her not being at least even-money this time around, especially with recent polling realities showing at least a slight PC tilt. While Brian Kenny is now touting a cabinet portfolio, McKay also has her role at the head of the recent track-and-field championships to tout.

Current projection: Toss-up

5)Nepisiguit - currently Liberal

Definite toss-up. Any one of the three major parties could win; the result depends on whether the NDP manages to draw votes from the anti-Graham Tories or the left-leaning Liberals, and if they do, if it's enough to squeak up the middle in a 3-way race.

Current projection: Toss up

6)Caraquet - currently Liberal

This riding would've remained Liberal, even without the hospital re-opening. No contest.

Current projection: Safe Liberal

7)Lameque-Shippagan-Miscou - currently Progressive Conservative

I don't agree with the assumption that having Alward at the top of the ticket somehow writes the PCs out of play in many Fracophone ridings, but I agree that, even in such a scenario, this seat would be safe.

Certainly a 3-way race, but I'm not sure how much of a chance Duguay has. If seats change hands in this election, it will most likely be a result of anti-government sentiment; thing is, this riding has been voting against Liberals since before it was cool, so unlike many Acadian Peninsula ridings, the PCs actually have a robust ground network here. It isn't impossible for Duguay to win - just not the likeliest outcome.

Current projection: Toss up

10)Miramichi Bay-Neguac - currently Liberal

Carmel Robichaud was abhorrent in cabinet, thus getting tossed into the back bench, but I'd still call her the favourite to win here. This is pretty low on the PC's list of winnable ridings, and the NDP blew its chances with Duguay opting to run elsewhere.

Bill Fraser is pretty prolific in his home riding; also, Tanker's wins were a bit of a contrarian populist blip in what has generally been a strongly Liberal-friendly riding.

Seat projection: Safe Liberal

12)Miramichi Centre - currently Liberal

The cradle of the CoR party would certainly have to be considered were there to be any PC resurgence in the province; the seat has voted pretty strongly for the Liberals in the past 2 elections, but has tended to be a free-for-all in elections where the Liberals weren't on the ascendant.

Seat projection: Toss up

13)Southwest Miramichi - currently Liberal

If I were analyzing this seat from a distance, I would agree with your assessment. However, having spent the first 18 years of my life here, I'll add some insight as to the goings-on here. The PC nomination convention here drew over 800 voters - more than what most *federal* riding conventions draw. Seems to suggest the PCs have the big mo here. Moreover, the PCs did something that neither major party has done in SW Miramichi since the '90s: nominated someone from the more heavily-populated (less sparsely-populated?) northern half of the riding, more "Exurban Commuters to Miramichi" than "Central New Brunswickers," and the area that was arguably the hardest-hit economically in the recent slew of mill closures. This riding tends to go through incumbents like dirty laundry (Brewer's re-election last time out was a quirky exception), and being a cabinet minister hasn't proven to shield MLAs from being unceremoniously dumped by the electorate (ask former finance minister/business minister Norm Betts, or former minister for seniors Reg MacDonald - the last two incumbents for the riding). As it stands, the PC candidate is a young and charismatic municipal councillor who didn't step on too many toes (a la Brent Taylor), and has received a lot of backing from the party apparatus thus far. If my read on the ground is correct, this looks like a riding that could potentially go PC even if the Liberals were to win re-election.

Seat projection: Leans PC

14)Rogersville-Kouchibouguac - currently vacant

If the Liberals were polling at a level that was more appropriate for a first-term government in NB, I'd say that this was golden pickup opportunity. As it stands, that is not the case. Poirier won this riding by a lot last time, and she still has a lot of pull in the area. All else being equal, the Liberals would have to be doing a fair bit better than they are now in order to have a good chance here.

Seat projection: Leans PC

15)Kent - currently Liberal

Graham will be re-elected, unless this election turns into some surprise Tory blowout like 1999. In such a scenario, he gets swept out to sea.

Seat projection: Safe Liberal

16)Kent South - currently Progressive Conservative

Agreed re: Claude Williams. This isn't the kind of election where a 3-term PC incumbent should have to be looking over his shoulders.

Seat projection: Safe PC

17)Shediac-Cap-Pele - currently Liberal

No contest.

Seat projection: Safe Liberal

18)Tantramar - currently Progressive Conservative

The Liberals will only snare this if the bottom falls out of the PC campaign.

Seat projection: Safe PC

19)Memramcook-Lakeville-Dieppe - currently Liberal

Shediac 2.0.

Seat projection: Safe Liberal

20)Dieppe Centre-Lewisville - currently Progressive Conservative

Not sure why you'd be so certain that this is an assured Liberal pickup. Francophones won't just abandon the PCs en masse based solely on the fact that their leader isn't a Francophone (see Hatfield, Richard....or Graham, Shawn, for that matter). Not that the Liberals can't grab this seat, but nothing suggests to me that the situation here is so cut-and-dried.

The lack of Lord certainly dents the PC's chances here, but I wouldn't read too heavily into the tea leaves re: the by-election results (the PCs even won the ridiculously Liberal riding of Shediac-Cap-Pelé by a reasonable margin in a pre-2003 by-election). Collins is competent, but the PCs really, really want this one back. This one will turn based on who has the more vociferous ground game.

Seat projection: Toss-up

22)Moncton West - currently Liberal

Two strong, female candidates in a traditionally close riding with good organizations behind them. Should be interesting.

Seat projection: Toss up

23)Moncton North - currently vacant

Blais has been a campaigning machine in this riding ever since she nearly played giant-killer vs. Mike Murphy in 2006. I won't do what many do and dismiss Robart as "that Magician" - it would be foolish to underestimate him - but it would be strange to think that he could stave of Blais when someone as established as Murphy barely managed to do so. This really seems like Blais' race to lose.

Seat projection: Leans PC

24)Moncton Crescent - currently Progressive Conservative

Betts hasn't had much to fear in previous elections, and a strong challenger will more likely reduce his margins than outright defeat him.

Seat projection: Likely PC

25)Petitcodiac - currently Liberal

Wally probably will wish he had followed Joan into retirement after election night. Wally Stiles won this riding because he was a PC, not because he was Wally Stiles. He'll likely do better here than a generic Liberal, but there's only a faint hope of him retaining his seat in the riding that is essentially the "spiritual sister" to Albert.

Seat projection: Likely PC

26)Riverview - currently Progressive Conservative

Fitch is as popular now as he ever was.

Seat projection: Safe PC

27)Albert - currently Progressive Conservative

Only way the Conservatives lose this seat is if the CoR party magically comes back.

Seat projection: Safe PC

28)Kings East - currently Progressive Conservative

The Liberals couldn't hold onto it when they were on the upswing, and they sure as heck aren't going to take it back in *this* election cycle.

Seat projection: Safe PC

29)Hampton-Kings - currently Progressive Conservative

Bev Harrison is well-entrenched organizationally, and the fact that the Liberal candidate could potentially unite the NDP and Liberal vote *here* has about as much relevance as it would in Crowfoot, Alberta.

Seat projection: Safe PC

30)Quispamsis - currently Liberal

Mary Schryer should win this race on her government CV alone, but certain Saint John political figures need to shut their mouths re: disparaging comments toward the suburbs, lest they muck things up for her.

Hard to say. Constituents are rather upset at the way Jamieson was treated by the Liberal party, but the Liberal candidate is essentially Jamieson's hand-picked successor. I'll give the Liberals a slight-edge here.

Seat projection: Leans Liberal

32)Rothesay - currently Progressive Conservative

Blaney's margin withered with the popularity of the Lord government over the years, and the Liberals' Victoria Clarke seems like a worthy opponent. This riding has proven to be an exceptional bellwether, voting for the provincial popular-vote-winning party for the last 25 years or more. Based on that, I have to give the edge to the party that appears more likely to win the provincial popular vote based on current circumstances.

Seat projection: Leans PC

33)Saint John East - currently Liberal

Roly's gone, and the new Liberal ncandidate is but a mere shadow compared to his predecessor - but that should be plenty to win this super-safe liberal riding.

Seat projection: Safe Liberal

34)Saint John Harbour - currently Liberal

Ed Doherty is a very popular figure in a riding that seems to only vote against the Liberals when there's a highly-credible NDP alternative (at least in recent times).

Seat projection: Safe Liberal

35)Saint John Portland - currently Progressive Conservative

Holder will likely increase his margin now that he's not stuck defending a government that has the perception of being "Moncton-centric" in a city that still thinks it's the biggest kid on the NB block.

Seat projection: Likely PC

36)Saint John Lancaster - currently Liberal

Though lewd and crude he may be, he's an oddly good fit for this riding. The cantankerous union man in a union town.

Seat projection: Safe Liberal

37)Fundy-River Valley - currently Liberal

Keir lucked out on the vote-split that occurred here in 2006, but it'll be hard for him to tout his cabinet position as reason for re-election when that cabinet position involved the role of being the water-carrier for the NB Power deal in a riding full of NB Power employees.

Seat projection: Leans PC

38)Charlotte-the-Isles - currently Liberal

A better question to ask here is: What would the Liberals have to do to LOSE this seat?

Seat projection: Safe Liberal

39)Charlotte-Campobello - currently Progressive Conservative

An interesting one for sure, and one whose result is predicated on whether this whole People's Alliance of NB catches on at all. I'm inclined to think that Charlotte County might be more partial to a PC party lead by an anglophone from Carleton County than it was to a PC party lead by a francophone from Moncton, but the mayor of St. Andrews may do just well enough to upset the apple cart for the Tories and allow for a slim Liberal win.

Seat projection: Toss up

40)Oromocto - currently Progressive Conservative

A conservative fortress. Though I personally find Carr to be overrated, he won't be losing here.

...I wonder how the Liberal candidate will campaign on the platform of "I opposed the scrapping of your ferry, so I'm running for the party that wanted to scrap your ferry."

That aside, the PCs probably have a good pickup opportunity here. McGinley's numbers may have dropped so substantially in part because he faced one of the Carr brothers, but the severe shift in the riding's boundaries was not kind to the Liberals: the liberal-leaning northeastern suburbs of Fredericton were removed, and the more-conservative areas of Gagetown and southern Queens County were added. With McGinley not reoffering and Carr safely tucked into his new seat in New Maryland-Sunbury West, this seems to be the type of riding where, if Generic Liberal X faced Generic Conservative X, then Generic Conservative X would win. And if we want to talk ground game, the PC's Wetmore was nominated earlier than any other candidate in the province in this cycle - not to mention that he'll likely be getting a lot of help from the super-safe Brothers Carr next door.

Seat projection: Leans PC

42)Fredericton-Nashwaaksis - currently Liberal

Burke was a rising Liberal star who came surprisingly close to being snuffed out in 2006. Lifford will likely seal the deal, as Burke seems to have put his political career on the back burner in favour of his legal practice, departing from cabinet as a result. One wonders if he even *wants* to be re-elected...

Seat projection: Leans PC

43)Fredericton-Ft. Nashwaak - currently Liberal

Lamrock is both loved and loathed, but of all the Liberal seats in Fredericton, this one's probably the weakest pickup opportunity for the PCs. Lamrock may received mixed reviews province-wide, but in the riding that encompasses a large swath of Fredericton's poorest citizens, his work on poverty reduction and social assistance reforms strikes a chord. He'll most likely be around after this election, regardless of the result.

Seat projection: Likely Liberal

44)Fredericton-Lincoln - currently Liberal

I don't think that Greg Byrne is quite so vulnerable, especially since he's the closest the Liberals have to an heir-apparent should things not pan out for them in this election. Craig Leonard is certainly hitting the pavement, though - he'll have to if he wants to wrestle this from Byrne.

This is my home riding, so I've been following it in much more detail than other ridings.

First, I'm not sure where you got the idea that the PC candidate here is "far-right." From what I saw of MacDonald's candidacy for the federal Conservative nomination, he was regarded as being to the left of "Red Tory" Keith Ashfield. As for his stated positions on smaller government - seems more like paying service to all the right conservative talking points than laying out a far-right platform. MacDonald's problem won't be his ideology; it'll be getting the Fredericton party brass to back him enthusiastically. He nearly thwarted their hand-picked candidate for the federal nomination, and finally showed them up in the battle for the provincial nomination. Guess we'll see if that old "one shade of blue" chant rings true.

Rick Miles has been a rising star, but a star far outshone by his Frederictonian colleagues at the cabinet table. Miles is easily the most forgettable of Fredericton's 4 MLAs, but at the same time, hasn't had to wear some of the unpopular changes in government policy that have dogged Byrne and Lamrock. So, in having a lower profile than his neighbours, could Miles actually be *helping* his chances at re-election? Or will he be relegated to the status of (as I actually once heard him called) "that guy who isn't Greg Byrne, T.J. Burke, or Kelly Lamrock"?

As for the NDP, much hay is always made of some high-profile NDP candidate running in this seat in every election, and every time, they fall flat. If the NDP does increase its vote share, it will likely be at the expense of both major parties.

It'll be a fracas in the heart of the capital, to be sure, and not enough dust has settled to make a clear prediction yet.

A Carr in a suburban-rural riding near Fredericton. I think I've seen this movie before.

Seat projection: Safe PC

47)York - currently Progressive Conservative

A riding that has thwarted incumbents for ages. The Liberals have a better candidate than Urquhart this time around - but they also had a better candidate than him *last* time around. Also, let's not forget that this riding is on Alward's doorstep, and the PCs will likely get a lift form that.

Seat projection: Leans PC

48)York North - currently Progressive Conservative

I can't foresee MacDonald waning to his 2003 margin; native son Alward is party leader (and right next door), and there's nothing to indicate significant weakness in MacDonald or significant strength in the Liberal campaign here.

Seat projection: Likely PC

49)Woodstock - currently Progressive Conservative

A no-brainer.

Seat projection: Safe PC

50)Carleton - currently Progressive Conservative

What nbpolitico said.

Seat projection: Safe PC

51)Victoria-Tobique - currently Liberal

Larry Kennedy's popularity as a politician, ironically, seems to stem from his desire to keep an arm's length away from politics. He's turned down repeated cabinet offers so that he can maintain his private medical practice, and while that might not go over well somewhere like Fredericton, it wins him lots of brownie points in a relatively remote area with precious few doctors.

Seat projection: Likely Liberal

52)Grand Falls-Drummond-St. André - currently Liberal

Ouellette was popular as mayor, and has been popular as MLA. No reason to think he'll lose.

Seat projection: Safe Liberal

53)Restigouche-la-Vallée - currently Liberal

Paulin did win his by-election rather comfortably. However, for reasons already stated, provincial by-election results are an especially poor barometer for general election performance. That said, Paulin has some establishment and street-cred here (at least in the Restigouche half of the riding), so he starts with an advantage.

Seat projection: Leans Liberal

54)Edmundston-St. Basile - currently Progressive Conservative

Not sure what gives the Liberals cause to be optimistic here. Dubé is rock-solid.

Seat projection: Safe PC

55)Madawaska-les-Lacs - currently Progressive Conservative

It's probably best for the PCs here that Volpé's horse in the race beat the party brass's chosen star - this race will be won using Volpé's political machine, not Alward's footsoldiers.

As always excellent analysis NBPolitico. I could quip about a couple of ridings but I concur it will be a close election. Judging from the NDP first salvo it's also going to be a bit dirty. Hopefully the two parties that actually have a shot of winning a seat stay out of the muck.

Thanks for allowing my coments to stand the test of time. It speaks well off you in my book atleast.

Believe it or not I largely agree with your asesment of the wicked game as well despite the possible quips from the very shy Mr Spinks (rest assured I would relish them and respond bigtime) However methinks the polical animals are very wary of the wild card known as the Joker or the Court Jester. that guy with noname could upset the cart full of rotten apples and a bunch of ordinary non political type folk could get elected by their fellow very pissed of Maritimers who have no wish to vote blue or red this time around. N'esy Pas?

Presently there is still a large undecided factor which is usually not good for government in power but also means some people still not sure about PC policies & direction: The handfull of liberal rural southern NB seats are in real danger along with 3 out of 4 Miramichi ridings. The PC machine will have to perform well to win over an extra 3 to 5 seats in Urban NB:St. John, Moncton & Fredericton. They seemed poised to do so. But, the NDP may just take Tracadie, they are on the rise within last few wks. So could a minority gov happen? I agree with Daniel that it is PC who are on the momemtum! Graham rose but then stalled! Still close overall. It will be a candidate to candidate battle and it will be dirty!

Don't feel downtrodden or way off base just yet Danny Boy. nothing is written in stone by the greedy Fake Left or the Numb Dumb Neocons The wicked game is never over until the Fat Lady sings and the old Queen just allowed the latest circus to begin in "The Place to BE" Lots of surprises could be in store for us all to enjoy within the next 30 days or so eh?

Great stuff, nbp. If you want my opinion, I think this is one election where the campaign will matter big time. If the Tories implode, like they did in the Miramichi region last election (for different reasons this time of course), you could see a bunch of dark horse candidates ride the coattails of their leader, premier Graham, to victory. A little too early to tell just yet, but my keen political eye already sees little cracks that have the potential to widen as things move along. As Charles always says...stay tuned!

I am just rating the ridings now but disagree with Campbellton and believe it will be much closer in Dalhousie Restigouche East. I think Arsebeault has an edge if only because he faces a divided Tory party in that riding and even their signs were slow to be placed up. However, Greg Davis , the Tory candidate in Campbellton (and yes I know it has another name but I am being brief), is a very popular Deputy Mayor of Campbellton.

Also, on the surface, it looks like a Liberal seat but historically it is one of the safest seats for the Tories in northern NB. Think Fernand Dube in the Hatfield era. There are many Tories here and others from narby ridings helping.Also, Bernie Valcourt's sister has an excellent chance tp defeat Bert Paulin. Now Senator Percy Mockler, long time Tory organizer extradorinarire, refused any free trips from the Liberals to leave his former riding and is helping her. Stay tuned for this one and for Campbellton. Dalhousie Restigouche East could be a surprise but it has a far longer Liberal tradition than the Campbelklton area (why do you think Campbellton was created in 1967 by the Libs? They wanted to create a riding to box in Tories so they could win all of Restigouche which then had triple member ridings.) The candidate in Dal-Rest East is also from Campbellton and even down here, I am hearing all is not well though I am not yet ready to call it, definitely leaning Liberal while Campbellton is leading Tory and Madawaska Les Lacs is a toss up.

I am just rating the ridings now but disagree with Campbellton and believe it will be much closer in Dalhousie Restigouche East. I think Arsebeault has an edge if only because he faces a divided Tory party in that riding and even their signs were slow to be placed up. However, Greg Davis , the Tory candidate in Campbellton (and yes I know it has another name but I am being brief), is a very popular Deputy Mayor of Campbellton.

Also, on the surface, it looks like a Liberal seat but historically it is one of the safest seats for the Tories in northern NB. Think Fernand Dube in the Hatfield era. There are many Tories here and others from narby ridings helping.Also, Bernie Valcourt's sister has an excellent chance tp defeat Bert Paulin. Now Senator Percy Mockler, long time Tory organizer extradorinarire, refused any free trips from the Liberals to leave his former riding and is helping her. Stay tuned for this one and for Campbellton. Dalhousie Restigouche East could be a surprise but it has a far longer Liberal tradition than the Campbelklton area (why do you think Campbellton was created in 1967 by the Libs? They wanted to create a riding to box in Tories so they could win all of Restigouche which then had triple member ridings.) The candidate in Dal-Rest East is also from Campbellton and even down here, I am hearing all is not well though I am not yet ready to call it, definitely leaning Liberal while Campbellton is leading Tory and Madawaska Les Lacs is a toss up.

These "new" results work only with some form of prop rep which NB does not presently utilize. (g) All indications in the north - contrary to even what I would expect - are that the Tories have the possibility of several seats, esp in the Restigouche region and of course Shippegan, maybe Tracadie thouhh it would be interesting of M. Dugual won hios seat!