Malaysia’s Economy in 2019: What Do the Experts Say?

Not sure which way the wind is blowing in regards to Malaysia’s economy in 2019? Don’t worry as we’ve compiled everything the experts have said about this! Read on to find out more!

“Growth among the large Asean countries is expected to remain solid in 2018 and beyond. Malaysia would be the one exception to this pattern, with slower growth expected in 2018 as well as into 2019 and 2020,” said Sudhir Shetty, chief economist of the East Asia and Pacific Region of the World Bank.

The World Bank projects Malaysia’s economy to expand by 4.7% in 2019, and 4.6% in 2020.

Bank Islam Malaysia chief economist Mohd Afzanizam Abdul Rashid believes that the next economic downturn is oncoming, and has warned about Malaysia sinking into its first recession in 10 years by end-2018 or 2019.

“Looking at 2018 full-year GDP outlook, our projection for Malaysia’s GDP is 4.8%-5% while for 2019 is 4.2%-4.4%, on the back of a global growth of 3.7% for 2018 and 3.6% for 2019,” says AmBank Group chief economist Anthony Dass, who believes that a slowdown in economic growth will take place, rather than a contraction leading to a recession.

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“We project the economy to average at 5.0% for 2018. However, looming fears on global monetary tightening, a ‘slowing China’, weaker demand outlook as reflected in the falling global PMI’s new export order, as well as domestic uncertainty suggest a challenging environment for the Malaysian economy in 2019. We expect the 2019 growth to be around 4.5%.” AmBank Research.

Maybank IB Research has raised its 2018 and 2019 headline inflation rate forecasts to 1.0%-1.5% and 2.0-2.5% respectively.

Nomura Research projects Malaysia’s gross domestic product (GDP) to grow 4% in 2019, compared to the consensus estimate of 4.6%. “However, in the second half of 2019 and into 2020, we forecast an economic recovery and, like the phoenix rising from the ashes, we believe it will be Asia’s time to shine. Investors will refocus their attention on Asia’s enormous growth potential vis-a-vis the rest of the world, activating a risk-on market rally as early as 2Q19.”

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect the economy to grow 4.7% in 2019, and 4.4% in 2020.

Malaysia’s policy stability and deep financial markets allowed the country to withstand external shocks and ensure growth, and Malaysia’s gross domestic product (GDP) will remain on a growth path into 2019, supported by its diversified economy and nature of exports, said Bank Negara Malaysia Governor Datuk Nor Shamsiah Yunus.

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“I think we still have to grapple with economic reforms and propel our economic growth,” said Anwar Ibrahim.

The government has projected a 4.9 per cent growth in Malaysia’s Growth Domestic Product (GDP) next year, said Finance Minister Lim Guan Eng.