France Consumer Confidence

France: Confidence among consumers moderates in July

July 29, 2015

The consumer confidence indicator elaborated by the National Statistics Institute (INSEE) inched down from June’s 94 points to 93 points in July. The result undershot market expectations of the index remaining at 94 points and marked a five-month low. Although the index is below its long-term average of 100, consumer confidence is currently at historically high levels last seen in 2010.

According to INSEE, July’s result reflected that consumers’ are more pessimistic opinions regarding their financial situation in the past 12 months and savings intention in the next 12 months more than offset rising optimism over their standard of living in the next 12 months as well as their current saving capacity. Moreover, households’ intentions to buy big ticket items in the next 12 months decreased over the previous month.

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect private consumption to increase 1.3% this year, which is up 0.2 percentage points over last month’s forecast. The panel expects private consumption to accelerate moderately to a 1.4% rise in 2016.

According to the National Institute of Statistics and Economic Studies’ (INSEE) business climate survey on manufacturing activity, the business sentiment index inched up from 112 points in December to 113 points in January.

The IHS Markit flash composite Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) ticked up from a revised 59.6 points in December (previously reported: +60.0 points) to 59.7 points in January, marking one of the sharpest rates of expansion in the survey’s history.