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Bruce Key. ‘Climate lackeys ignore the facts’

That was the title to a letter from Heath Craft to the editor of the Border Mail on 18 July. As I am always hoping that the predicted global warming will turn out to be a bad dream, I decided to see if the writer had something to say that I may have missed in the past.

Early in the letter Heath says:

“Firstly let’s not forget the change from ‘global warming’ to climate change’. Damn, is only they had data to prove this global warming they would not have needed to change slogans.”

When was this change? The International Panel on Climate Change was created by the UN in 1988.

Comment: The term ‘climate change’ seems to have been around for some time.

Comment: It is difficult to see a reduction in temperature in the past century as claimed by Heath.

The author then writes:

“How about that volcano in Iceland that spewed out more greenhouse gases in four days that the whole world has tried to negate in five years, and the volcano in the Philippines in 1991, which emitted more greenhouse gases into the atmosphere than the entire human race had emitted in all its years on earth”

These claims about volcanos sound plausible until they are investigated. Have a look at this graph from http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/ which measures the CO2 in the atmosphere at Mauna Loa in Hawaii: You will observe that the eruption of Mt Pinatubo in 1991 (which was the second biggest eruption since 1900) did not even register on the graph. If the author’s claim was true there would be a huge spike on the graph at 1991. Further support for this view can be obtained from the US Geological Survey at: http://volcanoes.usgs.gov/hazards/gas/climate.php which contains the statement:

Comment: Heath’s claims about volcanoes (which he is repeating from material circulating in the blogosphere) are totally without substance.

Heath also says:

“And how about the analysis that assuming the government’s figures are correct the impact on global temperature will be about 1/14,000 of a degree by 2020”.

Once again this claim is based on some spurious arithmetic circulating in the blogosphere. The figure of 1/14,000 of a degree is arrived at by assuming:

that only 3% of the CO2 in the atmosphere is man-made,

we are trying to reduce emissions by 5%

Australia is responsible for 0.045 of the world’s emissions, and

the temperature rise caused by doubling of CO2 will be 1 degree Celsius

Firstly, is mankind only responsible for 3% of CO2 emissions in the atmosphere? Consider this graph from http://cdiac.ornl.gov/trends/co2/graphics/lawdome.gif : The graph above shows that the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere only began to climb when land clearing and the industrial revolution got under way in 1750. (By the way, this graph is out of date; the current level of CO2 in the atmosphere is 390 ppm. Put your finger at 390 on the left hand axis to see what is happening).

The twin graphs above show that the level of CO2 in the atmosphere has not exceeded 300 ppm for 800 000 years – until now, when it has risen rapidly in the past 100 or so years to reach 390 ppmv.

It is easily proved that the total amount of CO2 produced by burning fossil fuels is about twice what is required to cause the recent increase. About half goes into the atmosphere and the rest into ‘sinks’ such as the ocean and vegetation. Instead of 3% of the CO2 in the atmosphere being due to human intervention, it is 100%

Another quantity used to arrive at the 1/14,000 of a degree above is the 5% reduction in Australia’s emissions that is the target for 2020.

I don’t know what the actual effect on the temperature would be if Australia managed to reduce its emissions but it is certainly not 1/14,000 of a degree. However it will still be small, because Australia is not a big emitter. If Australia takes action on carbon emissions it will send a signal to the world that will encourage other countries to take action.

Comment: The claim that action by Australia will only reduce the temperature by 1/14,000 of a degree is based on spurious information.

Toward the end of the letter the author quotes Tim Flannery as saying: “if the world as a whole cut all emissions tomorrow the average temperature of the planet is not going to drop in several hundred years, perhaps as much as 1000 years because the system is overburdened with CO2”. Whilst I have not checked the quote, I suspect he got it right.

Heath Craft’s final statement is: “Of course the truth is out there for those who want to look and see”

One thought on “Bruce Key. ‘Climate lackeys ignore the facts’”

The maths is wrong too. I listened to Alan Jones try to bamboozle David Karoly with this rubbish of mixing up GHG concentrations with emissions rates and world pecentages to arrive at what sounds like like exceedingly small numbers. The deniers are multiplying apples by oranges, coming up with pears and presenting them as grapefruits wih all the sincerity that only a fruit loop could muster. Abbott even claimed that CO2 was weightless the other day! This lack of even a high school science education should immediately disqualify him from ever being given the keys to the Lodge.