GOLD PRICES rallied $10 per ounce from yesterday's fresh 5-month lows against the Dollar in Asian trade Wednesday, only to lose half that bounce in London as traders looked to today's key US monetary policy decision from the Federal Reserve.
With US inflation data due later on Wednesday, just before the US Fed's widely-expected quarter-point hike to interest rates, new data this morning put Germany's consumer-price index 1.8% higher in November Wednesday, December 13, 2017

The Federal Reserve is holding another policy meeting this week and financial markets are pricing in that a 25 basis point rate hike is almost guaranteed. Yet given recent Fed commentary, it seems like the move is hardly fait accompli.
That a rate hike would be a favored probability is reasonable enough. However given the Fed’s track record, as well as recent comments by Janet Yellen and John Williams, there is some question as to whether the rate hike is really a done deal.
In November Yellen mWednesday, December 13, 2017

I’ve predicted that a long period of deflation in the Western world would end with a Fed taper, rate hikes and quantitative tightening.
That’s clearly in play now, and the deregulation of America’s thousands of small banks is perhaps the most exciting event taking place on this new “inflationary frontier”. Because of these powerful monetary trends, I’ve predicted big problems ahead for Wall Street and somewhat better times for Main Street.
Having said, that, I think investors would be making aWednesday, December 13, 2017

“Lightweight Senator Kirsten Gillibrand, a total flunky for Charles E. Schumer and someone who would come to my office begging for campaign contributions not so long ago (and would do anything for them), is now in the ring fighting against Trump.”
Donald Trump, tweet du jour
Trump is a compulsively vulgar knucklehead.
FOMC announcement on rates tomorrow. 25 basis point increase is expected.
There will be a stock option expiration on Friday.
Have a pleasant evening.Wednesday, December 13, 2017

We live in inflationary times. Some people might consider this statement controversial. This is because these days inflation is widely understood as a rise in the consumer price index (CPI) of more than 2 percent per year. However, there are convincing reasons to question this viewpoint. On the one hand, the CPI does not include “assets” such as, for instance, stocks, housing, real estate, etc. As a result, the price developments of these goods are not accounted for by the changes in the CPI.OnWednesday, December 13, 2017

Many people have now heard of bitcoin and cryptocurrency. And many have heard the term “blockchain” thrown around. But what is this new technology, and why is it such a big deal? How does it work? What other uses for blockchain exist outside of facilitating financial transactions? How does it make traditional banking obsolete?
Blockchain defined
A blockchain is a distributed ledger of transactions that use cryptography to keep exchanges secure. A distributed network of computers verifies orWednesday, December 13, 2017

CHARACTERISTICS OF BUBBLE CRAZINESS:
S. stocks, according to many measures, are the most over-valued in history. We live in a Bubble Zone! Read Mystery Markets, Bubbles, and Less Risky Gold.
Bitcoin and other cryptos are definitely in a bubble, but they could rise even higher.
Bonds yield little, and in many European countries, less than zero. Central banks have created this distortion to the detriment of savers, insurance companies and pension funds.
Real estate: Some locations, such as New ZeWednesday, December 13, 2017

SPOT GOLD prices failed to hold a 0.4% overnight rally from new 5-month lows in London on Tuesday, slipping back as world stock markets rose again ahead of tomorrow's key US Fed decision on Dollar interest rates amid worsening tensions in the Middle East.
Edging back towards $1241 per ounce today, the price of gold bullion for immediate delivery has now halved the 16% gains for 2017 reached at early September's 12-month peak.
Tuesday, December 12, 2017

And so, as they say in the horror movies, it begins…! The unwinding of the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet. Such an esoteric concept! Is there one in ten thousand of the millions of people who sit at desks all day long from sea to shining sea who have a clue how this works? Or what its relationship is to the real world?
I confess, my understanding of it is incomplete and schematic at best — in the way that my understanding of a Las Vegas magic act might be. All the flash and dazzle conceals theTuesday, December 12, 2017

In her testimony to the Congress Economic Committee on November 29, 2017, the Fed Chair Janet Yellen said that the neutral rate appears to be quite low by historical standards. From this, she concluded that the federal funds rate would not have to increase much to reach a neutral stance.The neutral rate currently appears to be quite low by historical standards, implying that the federal funds rate would not have to rise much further to get to a neutral policy stance. If the neutral level rises sTuesday, December 12, 2017

In the aftermath of the Great Financial Crisis, Central Banks began cornering the sovereign bond market via Zero or even Negative interest rates and Quantitative Easing (QE) programs.
The goal here was to reflate the financial system by pushing the “risk free rate” to extraordinary lows. By doing this, Central Bankers were hoping to:
1) Backstop the financial system (sovereign bonds are the bedrock for all risk).
2) Induce capital to flee cash (ZIRP and NIRP punish those sitting on cash) andMonday, December 11, 2017

SILVER PRICES failed to follow a small bounce in gold bullion Monday morning in London, holding unchanged versus the US Dollar from New Year 2017 as gold held $100 per ounce higher from January 1st ahead of this week's long-anticipated US Federal Reserve decision on interest rates.
With
silver prices slipping towards last week's new 5-month lows beneath $15.70 per ounce, world stock markets rose with commodities and major governmentMonday, December 11, 2017

US large cap stocks are the most overvalued in history. Let's investigate six ways.Crescat Capital claims US large cap stocks are the most overvalued in history, higher than prior speculative mania market peaks in 1929 and 2000.
Their 25-page presentation makes a compelling case, with numerous charts. It's worth your time to download and investigate the report.
Six Ways Socks Most Overvalued in History
Price to Sales
Price to Book
Enterprise Value to Sales
Enterprise Value to EBITDA
Price to EMonday, December 11, 2017

The Federal Reserve’s tools for achieving its dual mandate
of low inflation and full employment manipulate interest rates and therefore
markets. This manipulation of rates reverberates
globally. Their manipulation historically had been more light handed and
invisible to most of the public. However, over the last decade, their impact on
interest rates and yield levels have been the most dramatic in the history of
the Federal Reserve.
Whenever you have policies that are extreme, it is best to
Monday, December 11, 2017

Dictatorship (noun): Definition #3: absolute power or authority (Websters); Def. #2: absolute, imperious or overbearing power or control (Random House);Def. #3: Absolute or despotic control or power (American Heritage);Def. #3: Absolute or supreme power or authority (Collins English Dictionary);Def. #1: A type of government where absolute sovereignty is allotted to an individual or small clique (Wikipedia).“If you know the enemy and know yourself, you need not fear the result of a hundred battleSunday, December 10, 2017

(This item originally appeared at Forbes.com on November 29, 2017.)
https://www.forbes.com/sites/nathanlewis/2017/11/29/its-the-economy-stupid-time-to-get-tax-reform-done/#3129662d404d
As we get into the final rounds of the legislative process for tax reform, it is important to keep an eye on exactly what we are trying to accomplish, and why.
At base it is this: “It’s the economy, stupid.” A healthy economy solves a myriad of problems, from employment, to wages, to welfare, to healthcare, to peSunday, December 10, 2017

If Bitcoin really is like gold, watch out...!
NEW YEAR's DAY 1975 marked a huge turn in the gold market,
writes Adrian Ash at BullionVault.
Forty years after banning it, the US government at last let private citizens own bullion.
Coin shops and banks knew how big this was. So they raced to stock up as 1974 ended.
Friday, December 8, 2017

Bitcoin’s meteoric skyrocketing this year has been astonishing,
captivating traders across the globe. This once-obscure
cryptocurrency has exploded into the world’s hottest market. With
fortunes being won on paper, everyone is talking about bitcoin. But
with its price shooting parabolic, unfortunately this wild ride has
all the hallmarks of a classic popular speculative mania. And those
all end badly, totally collapsing.
In
the annals of financial-market historFriday, December 8, 2017

The hidden agenda in the so-called tax reform bill is to act as stop-gap quantitative easing to plug the “liquidity” hole that is opening up as the Federal Reserve (America’s central bank) makes a few gestures to winding down its balance sheet and “normalizing” interest rates. Thus, the aim of the tax bill is to prop up capital markets, and the apprehension of this lately is what keeps stocks making daily record highs. Okay, sorry, a lot to unpack there.
Primer: quantitative easing (QE) is a theFriday, December 8, 2017

Axel Merk, Merk Investments
December 7, 2017
Follow @AxelMerk Tweet
With the stock market and Bitcoin reaching all-time highs, what can possible go wrong? In offering my thoughts on 2018, I see my role in reminding investors to stress test their portfolios. Is your portfolio built of straw, sticks or brick?
First, let me allege many investors have portfolios built of straw and sticks rather than brick. How do I knFriday, December 8, 2017