India Meteorological Department (IMD) in its first long period forecast for this year has predicted a below normal monsoon. IMD said there was a 56% probability of below normal to deficient rains, as compared to a 44% chance of rains being normal or better.

There
was a 60% chance of an El Nino - a periodic warming of sea
temperatures in some parts of equatorial Pacific that often dampens
the critically important summer monsoon in India, the IMD added.

If
the prediction goes real, then what will be its impact on Indian
agriculture sector? Noted food policy expert Devinder Sharma said, "Yes off course it will impact, but not because of less
production, rather market will take its advantage. There will be
hoarding of farm products in a bid gain high profit, which is a
common thing India has been witnessing."

In
Focus

Sharma
added that if the monsoon happens to be below normal it will impact
farmers and they will suffer a lot losing their harvest because of
drought.

Whether
it is high rain, flood or drought, only farmers suffer and the
government must inform them about these issues and suggest them to
farm according the weather forecast, he explains putting a soft eye
on Indian farmers who really feed the entire population of the
country.

In
his other suggestions, Sharma says, "Major thing is that in India
during monsoon rice is cultivated more and it is the season of rice
farming. When the IMD has already predicted below normal monsoon the
government should inform and influence farmers to use System of Rice
Intensification (SRI) to get rid of water scarcity."

This
system uses 30% less water than the traditional one. More than this
the government must take care of irrigation facilitating electricity
and other water resources like well, tube-well etc, added Sharma