Estimate to Complete (Earned Value Analysis)

In earned value analysis, the Estimate To Complete, usually abbreviated ETC, is the expected remaining cost to complete the project. It is not the final overall project expected budget (that’s the EAC), rather it is the expenditure from now to the end of the project. It does not include what has already been spent.

Thus, it allows the project manager to compare the funding needs required to finish the project with available funding.

Based on a new estimate
This is called a Management ETC. This means that a new estimate of the remaining tasks in the project is performed.

ETC Example

In this example task we will calculate the ETC based on the past performance of the project.

As per standard earned value procedure, we have already determined the inputs: BAC, PV, EV, and AC.

We have already calculated the four present status variables: SV, SPI, CV, and CPI. Hence,

ETC = (BAC – EV) / CPI
ETC = ($10,000 – $2,500) / 0.56 = $13,393.

ID

Name

Start

End

BAC

PV

EV

AC

SV

SPI

CV

CPI

ETC

100

Excavation

Apr. 1

Apr. 10

$10,000

$2,000

$2,500

$4,500

$500

1.25

-$2,000

0.56

$13,393

This task is worth $10,000 (BAC) and has already spent $4,500 (AC) . Don’t worry, be happy, right? Wrong. Based on its performance so far you will need to spend another $13,393 to complete it.

Of course there are often unique, one-time circumstances which caused this problem or situations which alter the future performance of the project. In these cases a Management ETC (i.e new estimate) is necessary, which is entered into the ETC column. There is nothing wrong with this practice.

About Bernie Roseke, P.Eng., PMP

Bernie Roseke, P.Eng., PMP, is the president of Roseke Engineering. As a bridge engineer and project manager, he manages projects ranging from small, local bridges to multi-million dollar projects. He is also the technical brains behind ProjectEngineer, the online project management system for engineers. He is a licensed professional engineer, certified project manager, and six sigma black belt. He lives in Lethbridge, Alberta, Canada, with his wife and two kids.