Skeptics needed

About the Author

Being the voice of reason in a debate where emotions and
political agendas have captured the popular imagination takes great
courage. In discussions of climate change today, you will run into
assertions ranging from the "fact" that the polar ice cap will melt
and reverse the Gulf Stream to the "fact" that 80 percent of the
world's scientists agree that humans cause global warming. Then
there is the "fact" that skeptics of climate change are being paid
by major corporations to produce fraudulent research.

In spite of widespread vilification and official investigations
into his scientific credibility, Danish environmentalist Bjorn
Lomborg has not given up his role as a voice in the wilderness on
climate change. Mr. Lomborg of course first burst on the scene with
"The Skeptical Environmentalist" six years ago. He derives from a
proud tradition of contrary Danes, most notably the great
curmudgeon Soren Kierkegaard, who once complained that debating
with his fellow countrymen was "like being trampled to death by
geese."

Mr. Lomborg's most recent work is a plea for a compromise on
climate change, under the title "Cool It: The Skeptical
Environmentalist's Guide to Global Warming." Whether there is room
for reason in this debate is very much in doubt, but it remains
crucially important to keep the problem and its cost in
perspective. Specifically, he asks that skeptics agree that the
Earth is warming while believers accept that this is not the end of
the world.

It makes the case that while global warming is real, it shows no
sign of leading to the apocalypse, and that the money and effort
invested in limiting the emission of greenhouse gases could be far
better spent on saving human lives from other environmental
threats. Mr. Lomborg estimates that the $180 billion spent on the
Kyoto Protocol each year will delay the effects of global warming
by four days by the end of this century. If the United States had
signed on and every signatory nation had lived up to its treaty
commitments (which they don't), the delay by the end of this
century would be five years. And the consequences in terms of sea
level would not even be that hard to live with. While European
politicians now go on to pilgrimages to Greenland to pay homage to
the supposedly melting glaciers, it seems to be the case that only
some glaciers are melting, and that while the Arctic might be
seeing some melting, the Antarctic is seeing its icecap grow.

The rise in sea level by the end of this century, according to
the U.N. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, will be about
one foot. Other estimates are as low as three inches. This increase
in sea level is something that economically prosperous nations can
easy deal with, argues Mr. Lomborg. In fact, we have seen a
one-foot rise in sea levels over the past century, which the world
has managed to survive.

Interestingly also, Mr. Lomborg points to the positive side of
global warming, which it is high time someone did. The fact is - as
we would all acknowledge if we thought about it for five minutes -
that more people die from cold each year than die from heat. Mr.
Lomborg calculates that in Europe, where heating and air
conditioning are not up to American standards, each year 200,000
people die from excessive heat, but 1.5 die million from excessive
cold. In other words, global warming would save lives.

And he pleads for moving the focus away from greenhouse-gas
emissions to something that we are far better equipped to deal
with: Malaria eradication, for instance. For the relatively small
sum of $3 billion a year spent on mosquito nets and medication, the
instance of malaria in sub-Saharan Africa - a huge humanitarian
problem - could be reduced by half within a decade. Of course, that
involves "just" saving human lives, which is not nearly as
glamorous or fun as pushing political agendas.

The ill-fated Kyoto Protocol is set to expire in 2012, having
failed to achieve anything like its set targets. U.N. members will
be convening in Copenhagen in 2009 to discuss the successor
protocol - which at least should give them a chance to hear what
Mr. Lomborg has to say. We could avoid another Kyoto-like failure
on an international level if only they would listen and let reason
prevail.

Helle C. Dale is
Deputy Director of the Kathryn and Shelby Cullom Davis Institute
for International Studies and Director of the Douglas and Sarah
Allison Center for Foreign Policy Studies.