iShares China Large-Cap ETF (FXI)

"Vastly overblown," is how Stephen Roach (formerly MS, now a Yale prof) describes fears of a hard landing in China. A big fan of China's central planners, Roach says they've done yeoman's work controlling inflation and the next task is to wean the country off of a reliance on fixed-income investment at the expense of consumption.

Almost $9 out of every $10 put into equity ETFs worldwide in 2012 has gone into emerging market funds, according to BlackRock. It's the best performance ever for the sector in the initial 2 months of a year as investors chase strong performance in places like Egypt (EGPT), Brazil (EWZ), and China (FXI). Two broader EM funds: VWO+12.2%, EEM+12% YTD.

China Vanke - the nation's largest property developer - reports a sales decline of 39.84% in February, though the numbers may be distorted by the Spring Festival. Nevertheless, Vanke shares were off 3.4% in Shanghai last night, leading the composite to its worst performance in weeks, -1.4%.

Chinese auto sales through February fall 3% Y/Y, the worst figure since the 8.9% drop in 2005. "There are no incentives for consumers to buy," says Cui Dongshu, "They worry more about their income prospects ... more people are delaying their purchase."

After 7 straight weeks of stock market gains in Shanghai, the team at Credit Suisse decides the risk of a hard landing in China is gone. The analysts still expect growth to remain slow as inflation - on the way down right now - is expected to pick up later in the year, taking significant monetary ease off the table.

"The government has become a monopoly company that invests in everything," says Zong Qinghou, China's 2nd wealthiest man ahead of the annual National People's Party meetings. His comments reflect the growing concern that - far from reform or rebalancing - "state capitalism" is dominating the economy as never before.

China lowers its GDP target to 7.5% from the 8% goal that's been in place since 2005. Speaking at the annual meeting of the National People’s Congress, Premier Wen Jiabao adds the nation needs to shift to a more sustainable and efficient economic model, indicating China will cut its reliance on exports and capital spending in favor of increased consumption.

China's February services PMI slides to 48.4 from 52.9 previously, reports the CFLP, attributing the fall to the business lull following January's Spring Festival holidays. The sub-index of new orders fell to 46.1 from 48.5.

"The iron rice bowl has become a pot of gold," says James McGregor of the dominance of state-owned enterprises (SOE) in China causing an inefficient allocation of resources. The success of China, he argues, has much to do with a population that is "good at getting around bad policies ... but (now) it's getting harder to get around bad policy."

Up 1.4% last night, Chinese shares logged their 7th consecutive weekly gain, the longest streak since summer 2009. The National People's Congress begins it annual meeting next week, and hopes are high policies targeting increased consumption will be adapted. FXI+15.3% YTD.

Two Chinese manufacturing surveys released today both indicated mild improvement in February, but underlying data showed surging input prices and deteriorating new orders, suggesting further weakening in the Chinese economy. The two surveys were both near the key 50 level separating expansion from contraction, though HSBC's index showed 49.6 and the government-backed PMI was 50.5.

China should accelerate the loosening of capital controls, says the PBOC in a report that outlines the path to a freely tradable currency and more open capital markets. The timing of the report suggests reform-minded officials may be trying to build momentum ahead of a leadership transition announcement later this year.

China could face an economic crisis unless it implements deep reforms. That's the conclusion of a report, to be released Monday by the World Bank and a Chinese think tank, which challenges how China's economic model has developed over the last decade and stresses the need to scale back China's vast state-owned enterprises.

The flash estimate for February's HSBC China PMI comes in at 49.7, a slight improvement from January's final 48.8 but still in contractionary territory. However, the data is somewhat distorted because of the weeklong Lunar New Year holiday.

China plans to increase export tax rebates in response to slowing demand overseas, the first such move since 2009. "The situation is getting more severe, with a double-digit decline in export growth expected in Q1," says a deputy director in the Commerce Ministry.

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