Our View: Be careful about drawing conclusions from Massachusetts

Sunday

Jan 31, 2010 at 12:01 AM

The last time Massachusetts elected a Republican to the U.S. Senate, Richard Nixon was president. The Senate seat won by Scott Brown earlier this month had been viewed as practically the personal property of the Kennedy family since 1953.

The last time Massachusetts elected a Republican to the U.S. Senate, Richard Nixon was president. The Senate seat won by Scott Brown earlier this month had been viewed as practically the personal property of the Kennedy family since 1953.

As such it's a remarkable pick-up for the GOP, one that denies Democrats their supermajority in the Senate and may stall or even kill the year-long push to overhaul America's health care system. It shouldn't have been a surprise.

First, for Democrats it was practically a textbook case of how not to run a campaign, with lackluster candidate Martha Coakley proving just how easy it is to misread the electorate. Likewise, Brown certainly got a boost by campaigning on the promise to oppose the convoluted health reform plan being hashed out in Congress. Bay Staters have experience already with a similar health mandate imposed there in 2006 - ironically led by former Republican Gov. Mitt Romney - and dissatisfaction with it has grown.

Yet that alone wasn't enough to swing the polls 25-plus points and put Brown over the top. Despite the perception of Massachusetts as a liberal bastion, with Democrats overwhelming Republicans in terms of registered voters, the 800-pound gorilla there was the 51 percent of the vote that came from independents, who acted like their brethren in other states. Voters in Virginia and New Jersey rejected Democrats in gubernatorial races last November. "Every state is now in play," Sen. Barbara Boxer, a California Democrat, told reporters after Brown won. She's right.

It's hard to characterize the election as a referendum on Barack Obama - polling suggests he's still widely popular in Massachusetts - so much as it is an expression of frustration with how Democrats have governed and what their priorities are. Health care, the issue Democrats have devoted the lion's share of their time to for nine months, is not the top issue for voters. In fact, it ranked in a Pew Research Poll last week well behind jobs, the economy, terrorism, Social Security, education, Medicare and deficit reduction.

Politicians fare better in elections when they focus on what voters are talking about. Perhaps more than that, they win when they're able to get things done. Democrats were swept into office in 2006 and 2008 by promising change and an end to business as usual, but this is proof the pendulum swings both ways. What we've gotten is mostly the same old dance: lots of spending and bickering but little accomplishment despite overwhelming majorities. "Moderates and independents ... just don't believe the answers we are currently proposing are solving their problems," says Indiana Democratic Sen. Evan Bayh. "The only we are able to govern successfully in this country is by liberals and progressives making common cause with independents and moderates."

Republicans didn't necessarily get a vote of confidence here - Brown, in fact, carefully avoided reminding voters of his GOP affiliation whenever possible. What he did do was promise to be responsive and seek solutions, rather than just being a "no" vote. We suspect Massachusetts voters will now expect him to walk the walk.

If he doesn't, well, for all the talk about the Massachusetts election being an indicator of where the country's headed in this year's midterms, this is but one seat. If it's true, as Congressman Aaron Schock has told us, that most of his constituents want Uncle Sam to "do something" about health care, if Democrats go ahead with their "something" and Republicans filibuster, if in the end the status quo remains, it's possible voters may end up taking out their wrath on all involved, while looking elsewhere for leadership. With this Republican reward comes much risk. Conservatives certainly have more passion now, but a repeat of 1994 is not guaranteed.

From where we sit, Republicans who want to duplicate this result and Democrats who want to prevent it need to rally behind candidates who can prove their ability to work together. In a nation facing enormous challenges, many Americans are sick of watching those they elect do nothing about them.

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