Go or no go: how strong is the front?

A weekend flying trip is on the calendar today, as you’re scheduled to attend a family reunion in Springfield, MO. Your flight will depart from Olive Branch Airport (OLV), just outside of Memphis, TN and arrive at the Springfield Branson Airport (SGF). The airplane for the 221 nm trip is your pride and joy–a nicely-equipped Cessna T210 with dual WAAS GPSs, multi-function display and XM Weather. There is no ice protection. You have a commercial certificate with an instrument rating, and are proficient in the airplane, having flown it 150 hours in the last 12 months.

Your proposed departure time is 1630Z. It’s time to make the go/no go call.

Current conditions

There is a cold front stretching right across your route of flight, through southeastern Missouri and Arkansas. Earlier in the week, this front was forecast to develop into a serious line of thunderstorms, but that may be breaking up a little. Here’s what the surface weather depiction looks like:

The radar and satellite picture show that there is definitely solid cloud cover and some precipitation, but it’s not a solid line:

There are the usual AIRMETs out for possible icing in the clouds, although the freezing level is fairly high, so the AIRMET starts at 10,000 ft. While you probably can’t go high today, a cruising altitude of 6-8,000 appears to be out of any ice:

The AIRMET for turbulence shows the possibility of some bumps for the second half of your flight, as the winds are stronger to the north:

There are no Pilot Reports (PIREPs) in the area for either icing of turbulence.

Checking METAR reports along your route, you find both VFR and IFR conditions, with increasing wind as you get closer to your destination:

The terminal forecasts show showers and some wind, although generally VFR conditions, for the first half of your flight. The second half shows lowering IFR conditions, but still well above approach minimums:

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Coming from an aviation family, John grew up in the back of small airplanes and learned to fly as a teenager. Ever since, he has been hooked on anything with wings and regularly flies a Citabria, a Pilatus PC-12 and a Robinson R44 helicopter. He is an ATP and also holds ratings for multiengine, seaplanes, gliders, and helicopters. In addition to being Editor-in-Chief of Air Facts, John is a Vice President at Sporty’s Pilot Shop, responsible for new product development and marketing.

Got to agree with Ed. The airplane is well equipped and has onboard weather. This also assumes that the pilot is suitably IFR proficient to match his overall proficiency in the airplane.

There are plenty of airports with decent IFR approaches along the way. If the front starts to dissipate, he can keep going. If it front builds or if the ceilings and visibilities behind the front drop to lower than forecast, land and wait out the weather. Starting early on this one will also gives more options including turning back if things aren’t working as planned.

I have to agree as well. I was reading this one and didn’t see the issue. The band of weather is relatively narrow, you have enough fuel to have plenty of options, and returning to the point of departure is available without weather issues. I would definately launch. Even if I couldn’t leave earlier, unless the line of storms was in rapid development at the moment of departure, I wouldn’t think twice about launching and taking a look.

I agree with the first three comments, but I’d add that going later is an option too. Let the front pass. I wouldn’t put too much stock in the on-board XM. It’s nice to have, but we all know what they say about using it in the air for tactical decisions – don’t.

I would definitely try it, flying a Cherokee-6 with Nexrad and WAAS. Ice is not a problem. Thunderstorms can be easily avoided or, if necessary, run away from. I don’t consider this a go-no go decision. Its a go-continue decision.

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