Illini, Big 10 struggling with recruiting

Published
12:00 am CST, Sunday, March 1, 2015

When the cheers went up for Illinois’ 2005 NCAA runners-up Saturday, were you among those wondering why that marvelous 37-2 run wasn’t extended?

We are, even today, caught up with the idea that a magical surge would mean better recruits and more Illini championships. Well, it didn’t happen. Illinois posted five NCAA wins in 2005, and a total of three in nine seasons since.

And the Illini basketball image — the brand — gradually slipped from Top 10 to somewhere in the Top 50. The flag is at half-mast because of failed recruiting. The 2011 class of Crandall Head, Jereme Richmond and Meyers Leonard evaporated before John Groce coached his first UI game, Leonard’s early departure for the NBA cooling Groce’s arrival.

And the 2012 class — they’d be seniors now — included Tracy Abrams and a quartet long since departed: Mike Shaw, Myke Henry, Devin Langford and Ibby Djimde. There were some inexcusably bad evaluations related to that group, and those 2011 and 2012 shortfalls put Groce behind an eight-ball from which he hasn’t fully extricated himself.

Finding the right fit

But Illinois isn’t the only Big Ten program struggling to locate the right fits. We’re seeing conference-wide slippage exacerbated in November and December when league members suffered embarrassing setbacks.

Encouraged by a caller, I found that the Big Ten has matched two AP Top 25 teams on just three occasions during the entire conference race, two involving Wisconsin, and the Maryland loss at Indiana Jan. 22. Meanwhile, the Big 12 had conducted 27 such games. Kansas alone has gone out on eight occasions against conference opponents ranked at the time.

That lets you know where the most talent is … or at least a good portion of those who are not at Kentucky.

Face it, the Big Ten is having difficulty attracting and holding quality athletes. Take that 2011 class, the ones who would be seniors. With Cody Zeller long gone from Indiana, and LaQuinton Ross leaving Ohio State early, the only remaining members of Rivals’ Top 50 in the league are OSU’s Sam Thompson and MSU’s Branden Dawson.

Here’s a striking stat: In the past four classes, Indiana has attracted eight Top 50 players, but no other Big Ten school has brought in more than one per year. And half of the Big Ten schools haven’t brought in any. Not one Top 50 high school player in four years by Minnesota, Northwestern, Penn State, Rutgers, Nebraska, Purdue and Iowa. Wisconsin has had one: junior Sam Decker.

At MSU, Tom Izzo has been repeatedly rebuffed and has attracted no Top 50 players in the past two classes. Indiana’s Tom Crean had no sooner hit on three quality centers than he lost them, two of the NBA and one to transfer. OSU’s Thad Matta had one Top 50 recruit in the 2011-12-13 classes, and that lone pickup is gone (Ross).

Bucking the odds

That doesn’t mean coaches can’t pick up quality transfers or have someone develop out of the blue like Frank Kaminsky at Wisconsin. But you’re bucking the odds if other schools are attracting the top-rated talent and you’re playing catch-up by trying to develop lesser talent.

Why do you think Kentucky, Kansas, Duke and North Carolina keep winning?

And look what’s happening in 2015. Of the top 40 players as tabbed by Rivals, 30 have confirmed where they’ll attend … and only two have chosen Big Ten schools: Muskegon’s Deyonta Davis (24) to MSU and La Lumiere’s Jalen Coleman-Lands (39) to Illinois. That’s two for the Big Ten and 28 blue-chippers scattered around other conferences.

Of the Top 10 most highly sought prospects, Kentucky has landed two, Duke one and LSU one, and the other six are waiting to see who turns pro at the elite schools.

That’s what the college game has become for the blue-chippers, and the Big Ten isn’t playing that game. That’s why the league’s only Top 25 teams today are overachievers Wisconsin and Maryland.

If this is merely the workings of a cycle, it’s one that the conference needs to quickly reject.

Learning valuable lessons

Back to Illinois. In a short time, dealing with underdog status each season, Groce has shown himself to be the conference’s most intense and aggressive recruiter. He has done wonders in reaching the final day for elite prospects, but has narrowly missed in multiple showdowns.

The problems now facing Kansas in the Cliff Alexander case remind that we really don’t know what’s happening behind the scenes. We can assume Groce has learned some valuable lessons.

What we do know is that, after putting three teams in last year’s Elite Eight, the Big Ten has slipped behind the Big 12, ACC and Big East in 2015 performance, and even further behind in terms of acquiring talent. Nor are there many arrows pointing up for 2016.