Ex-defense Boss Sees 2 Iraqi Futures

NEWPORT NEWS — William J. Perry speaks at Christopher Newport University about the war and nuclear proliferation.

For better or worse, the United States will get through the war in Iraq, former Defense Secretary William J. Perry predicted during a presentation Wednesday night at Christopher Newport University.

Americans will soon get a glimpse into how operations there will end, said Perry, who served under then-President Bill Clinton from February 1994 to January 1997.

One of two things are likely, he said: The Iraqi government -- once the United States pulls out -- will evolve into a theocratic Islamic republic much like Iran. Or "Iraq explodes into a violent civil war and inflames the region."

Other options could have been available. But those were eliminated -- in part, Perry said, because current Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld didn't use a larger number of troops in the invasion and didn't immediately begin training Iraq's new security and military forces.

The final outcome, Perry concluded, will likely be "determined by the Iraqi people. With bloodshed."

In the coming months and years, though, the United States will have other concerns to think about, he said.

One of Perry's six goals as defense secretary was to limit the world's nuclear proliferation, including the desire of Iran, Iraq and North Korea to have such weapons. "Secretary Rumsfeld spends very little time dealing with this issue," Perry said. But, he said, he understands that Rumsfeld has other issues occupying his time.

Perry personally saw the dismantling of Soviet bombers, and he showed video clips to that effect Wednesday. He helped blow up old missile silos that during the Cold War held bombs aimed for the United States. And he was part of an administration that entered an agreement with North Korea to slow that nation's nuclear program.

That agreement ended in 2002, when President Bush learned that North Korea was working on a covert uranium program.

The United States invaded Iraq in 2003, saying then-leader Saddam Hussein was harboring weapons of mass destruction.

"None were found," Perry said. He said that "because of Iraq, we ignored North Korea, who did have a viable (nuclear) program."

Last month, North Korea tested a nuclear weapon. "It's a danger to all of us," Perry said. Why? According to Perry's accompanying slide show, it increases the risk of terrorist organizations getting their hands on a nuke. *