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Interesting speculation, though probably just filler as we wait to see what May will ultimately bring to parliament. The closer the deal is to Labour's proposals of leaving the SM but remaining in a CU, the bigger the gamble of rejecting May's deal becomes. Worthwhile, perhaps, if the goal is preventing Brexit altogether and there is a realistic prospect of doing this, without risking dividing the country further, but to risk a no deal Brexit for the chance, but no guarantee, of Labour negotiating a similar deal....

We need to get the Tories out, but if jeopardizing our economy and our relationship with the EU is the potential price of attempting to engineer the opportunity to do so....

I suppose it all depends on whether or not you believe the Tories would actually allow us to crash out. Given the great effort over recent years to recast the UK in the US' image, the sanctions for ill people, the cuts to benefits for children, the systematic destruction of vital infrastructure through lack of investment, privatisation and asset stripping.....it's quite difficult, tbh, to have faith in the Tories knowing what is too far, in knowing where to stop.

Austerity was a textbook application of the shock doctrine and a no deal Brexit has potential to deliver similar benefits to the wealthy and powerful on a whole other level. Pre-Trump I wouldn't have ever considered it a possibility and I still think it pretty remote, but I can't discount it completely. The current generation of Tories are pretty horrendous and very dangerous in both aims but also competence. What they may ultimately balk at doing deliberately they are still capable of doing by accident and that always remains a concern.

Freeze is by far the most pernicious exponentially especially for the (so called evidentially not)protected with no options,therefore shouldn't be prevaricated upon as to ending beyond and beyond any debate to end IMHO.

"progression" in my terms is always a continual battle,not least in the narratives used,sometimes reverse,stalling,wrong way,satnav gone awry but the direction generally at least worked towards;sadly the fact of "debate" indeed back to square one in too many ways.

It's worth thinking about what 'no deal' or crashing out might mean, because there are probably quite different versions of it. There is a purists version discussed by the ERG which seems to involved just walking away, fuck'em, but the government have talked about making sector-specific arrangements about things. The point of that is it still appears to be overwhelmingly likely that the only agreements the EU states will reach with us about these things are the same agreements they have with other third countries - third country status, no say, payments in and ECJ oversight. A sector by sector Norway, if you like. I still think the best riposte to "you really think business will allow planes to stop flying on March 30th" is "you really think the rest of the EU states will say 'it's okay, we will go to the time, trouble and expense of keeping to the rules, you can do whatever you like with no consequences'."

Throughout the years of imperial retreat and deindustrialisation, that belief [British - or English - exceptionalism] has shrunk, though most people of my generation, including me, can still find some recalcitrant traces of it in our tastes, interests and prejudices. It persists at its most florid in the popular press and, more crucially, almost as a founding belief in the Europhobic wing of the Conservative party and throughout Northern Ireland’s Democratic Unionist party. These parliamentary groupings, with a total of no more than 50 to 70 MPs, at present seem to have the future of the United Kingdom under their thumb.

https://amp.theguardian.com/politics/2018/oct/13/poorest-families-to-lose-out-on-210-a-year-owing-to-benefits-cap?__twitter_impression=trueFreeze is by far the most pernicious exponentially especially for the (so called evidentially not)protected with no options,therefore shouldn't be prevaricated upon as to ending beyond and beyond any debate to end IMHO.

Wickedly, Osborne&Accomplices' 'Austerity' is not only alive and well, but growing

" Attention has focused on the damaging consequences of universal credit for poorer families in recent days, with comparisons to the Thatcher government’s poll tax from two former prime ministers, although the freeze on benefits has much wider-reaching consequences for millions of people.

Alongside preventing increases in universal credit payments, the freeze also blocks real-terms rises in child benefit, tax credits, housing benefit and jobseeker’s allowance, which are paid out to far more people.

About 7.3 million children across the UK, 2.4 million disabled people and 800,000 people looking for work are affected by the freeze."

The 30 or so Tories calling for a belated freeze on UC now have something else to occupy them (if they want to be re-elected) ...

The charity Medical Justice, which works to protect the health of immigration detainees, said it encountered up to three cases a month of the Home Office proceeding to remove people deemed medically unfit to fly.

The charity Medical Justice, which works to protect the health of immigration detainees, said it encountered up to three cases a month of the Home Office proceeding to remove people deemed medically unfit to fly.

FFS indeed, but one ceases to be amazed . Also, historically Cruel Government is unfortunately not thus far limited to the Tories, as Windrush and WCA's were not invented by them.Have to go out, so parking this to read later . Looks good .

Former Chief Economist at WTO: no-deal Brexiteers are playing fast and loose with the factsA WTO Brexit would be wrenching, costly and fraught with uncertainty

Tugendhat said it was important to establish the facts, but that if Riyadh had murdered Khashoggi or sanctioned his killing there should be a downgrading of diplomatic relations and a boycott by UK ministers. (Guardian)

Given the ever shrinking membership of the Tory party it would be surprising if they didn't have problems finding enough suitable candidates. How do they keep finding so many people to vote for them, that's the real question. Is it just Brexit now holding the decaying conservative cause together? And what happens when Brexit is in the past, how do they drum up a majority out of their failed ideology and economic mismanagement then?

Edited to add - maybe best not to try to answer that last question. Might be a bit depressing, I suspect.

Theresa May has been told that the DUP leader, Arlene Foster, is now “ready” to trigger a no-deal Brexit and regards this as the “likeliest outcome” following a “hostile and difficult” exchange with the EU’s chief negotiator, an explosive set of leaked government emails reveal. (Guardian)

Theresa May has been told that the DUP leader, Arlene Foster, is now “ready” to trigger a no-deal Brexit and regards this as the “likeliest outcome” following a “hostile and difficult” exchange with the EU’s chief negotiator, an explosive set of leaked government emails reveal. (Guardian)

Labour MPs told The Independent that at least 15 could rebel against Mr Corbyn and back the government, which could be enough to tip the balance in the Commons in favour of the deal.

I could understand logic behind some of the possible reasons given such as 'not wanting to risk a no deal exit', 'not wanting to appear ant-brexit', 'possibility that deal is acceptable' ..but not

Quote:

Another said Labour could not credibly oppose a deal that had the support of all 27 other EU countries. “The idea the Labour Party should block a deal that is backed by the likes of Merkel, Macron and the rest of the 27 is ludicrous.”

Presuming the 27 would accept either of the options that have been on offer from the outset (and ignoring possiblity of some other bespoke deal), it's down to whichever option Theresa May opts for and whether parliament accepts that as being in the best interests of the country.Accepting it 'because the 27 have backed it' it is just nonsense,(unless process is that once they've accepted a deal, there can be no further discussion).edit: I keep forgetting that it's just the withdrawal agreement that's being accepted at this stage & future relationship is likely to be quite woolly, but think my rant possibly still valid

Re UC .Of course there are some gainers,part inevitable part justification for overall misanthropy,as per the better off for the not expected to work,a hollow laugh, granted in what was our situation and ignores reduction in other support and other "reforms".

@dianehain 1h1 hour agoMoreThere’s no way any of us should be subjected to the ramblings of Daily Mail’s Sarah Vine who just reduced Tory EU infighting to ‘men waving their Willy’s around’, omitting the fact that one of those ‘dicks’, is her husband Michael Gove.

If the government is unable to reach a deal with the EU, 31% of respondents said the UK should leave without a deal and with no further votes, 23% said there should a second Brexit referendum, 14% said there should be a general election and 13% said the government should try to extend the negotiation period beyond March 2019.

13% of people have been paying attention.

A stark illustration of how the hard Brexit wreckers could win out. For them to succeed all that is needed is for their opponents to do nothing and their opponents are woefully divided on how to proceed.

I don't think that's any different from Labour. You get a welcome pack and membership card when you sign up but it's provisional for the first 3 months so you can't vote at local meetings initially until your membership is approved.

Isn't the real embarrassment for the Tories that Godfrey Bloom would want to join their party? That's surely bad enough in itself, even if they reject him and it will be interesting to see on what grounds they would reject him. They can hardly argue he doesn't share their vision and values, not these days.

EU leaders are set to hold an extraordinary “no deal” Brexit summit in November to deal with the potential disaster of the UK crashing out of the bloc should Theresa May fail to deliver decisive progress on the Irish border issue this week, the Guardian can reveal.

A special meeting of heads of state and government at which the EU had hoped to finally sign off on the Brexit negotiations next month will instead be turned into a emergency summit to discuss the bloc’s response to a cliff-edge Brexit.

The plan is set to pile further pressure on the prime minister by illustrating the EU’s seriousness about allowing the UK to crash out if the alternative is a deal that would undermine the integrity of the single market, or prove to be unacceptable to the Republic of Ireland. (Guardian)

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