Presidential elections have been very good to the Democratic Party in the age of Obama. Record-setting voter turnout among blacks, Latinos, single women, gays and lesbians and young people helped President Obama secure two decisive victories over John McCain and Mitt Romney.

But this “Obama coalition” has failed to produce similar winning results in midterm and off-year elections for the Democrats, with the most recent example being the contest for governor in Kentucky.

In that race, Democratic Attorney General Jack Conway led Republican businessman Matt Bevin 45 percent to 40 percent in the last pre-election poll conducted by Survey USA. On Election Day, Bevin crushed Conway by nine points.

This is not an isolated incident. Since the re-election of President Obama in 2012, Democrats have lost more than 900 state legislative seats, 12 governors, 69 House seats and 13 U.S. Senate seats. Additionally, according Politico, President Obama’s midterm losses are the most severe of any two-termer in 70 years.

Given President Obama’s recipe for success, none of this should be surprising.

Deviating from the Clinton/Gore strategy of running as a moderate, Blue Dog Democrat with appeal to moderate and suburban voters, President Obama ran hard to the left in order to spike turnout among his liberal base. He correctly concluded that the demographics of the country have changed so dramatically over the past several decades in favor of the Democrats that winning over the more conservative “Reagan Democrats” by running as a moderate was unnecessary and probably counterproductive.

Additionally, minority voters were invested in Obama personally in ways that they weren’t with former Al Gore or John Kerry. Many of President Obama’s most ardent supporters felt that any attacks on him were motivated by race and were patently unfair. The more Republicans attacked Obama, the more his supporters circled the wagons. Ultimately, his supporters were just as invested in him as they were in his causes.

The problem for Democrats is that they still have to win elections – without Obama on the ballot. When these elections occur, Obama’s cult of personality stays home, and Republicans show up. To make matters worse, all of the swing voters who were heavily courted by former President Clinton and shunned by Obama show up, too. The result is an electoral catastrophe for the Democrats.

Democrats are hoping that the Obama coalition will become engaged in the 2016 presidential election and turn out in record numbers for Hillary Clinton. Their theory is that if Hillary runs to the left, in the mold of Obama, she can overwhelm the Republican nominee and won’t need the Reagan Democrats, either.

They also figure they can get their voters invested in Hillary because if elected she would be the country’s first female president.

But I wouldn’t be so sure about that.

When it comes down to it, Hillary is an old, rich, white woman who sat on the board of directors of Wal-Mart and has been working in politics her entire life. She’s not a fresh face on the scene, under attack from the rich and powerful. She is the rich and powerful.

Some Democrats are already starting to openly worry about the party’s myopic focus on the Obama coalition. Former New Mexico governor Bill Richardson told the New York Times, “We are losing the white male vote in droves, and we’ve got to appeal to the white male with stronger economic themes, inequality themes. …We can’t just become the minority-advocate party.”

If Hillary is going to play the turnout game, she better be certain that she can turn them out. Otherwise she loses.

Staff opinion columnist John Phillips can be heard weekdays at 3 p.m. on “The Drive Home with Jillian Barberie and John Phillips” on KABC/AM 790.

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