Insight

GB Renewables Forecast – H2 2018

Aurora is pleased to present its latest GB Renewables Forecast, H2 2018. This presents Aurora’s comprehensive view on the state of Renewables in the GB power market, and includes our latest outlook on subsidy-free business models, and regional differences in prices, production and capacity to 2040.

The analysis draws on our internal modelling capabilities, and much of the content has been developed through a detailed consultation process across private and public sector players.

Key messages from the report include:

Under current policy framework, subsidy-free onshore wind and solar will become viable in the early 2020s, delivering 10 GW of capacity by 2030.

Early subsidy-free developments can take advantage of cost savings and synergies of co-location with battery storage.

Price cannibalisation will increase substantially.

Aurora estimates the long-term P90 capture price for wind and solar at £31-35/MWh; gas prices and further subsidies are the key risks.

Access to capacity and frequency response markets lift project IRRs by up to 1 percentage point.

Aurora’s Company performance report presents a summary of the operational and financial performance of all major participants in the GB wholesale power market. The key statistics include companies’ revenues and profits, outputs, capacities, capture prices and load factors. All the metrics are presented for the entire generating portfolios, their subsets for each technology, as well as for individual assets. The report also presents the evolution of companies’ market shares over time.

Aurora’s latest Distributed and Flexible Energy Scenarios Report for H1 2018 presents Aurora’s central outlook for distributed and flexible energy alongside a number of plausible alternative scenarios – each of which provides an internally consistent view on market developments, deployment, and investment cases. This update also includes the addition of a new ‘High Interconnector’ scenario.