Orlando Arcia

Gauging the value of stars on the trade block makes for popular sport among MLBTR readers. Quite often, we’re asked whether a given player could command, say, a “top 100 pitching prospect.” Now, we seem to have a clear test case, as the Orioles are reportedly trying to land just such a player — a top-end pitching prospect, that is — in talks involving star infielder Manny Machado.

It’s nothing new to suggest that the Baltimore organization would like to convert Machado into a talented young hurler, of course. The reported aim over the winter was to get two such arms in exchange for a single season of Machado. When that failed to materialize, the O’s instead held him in hopes of contending. Now, as the team pursues its fallback plan of a mid-season sell-off, it has continued to try to pry loose pitching talent as the headlining element of a return for Machado.

The most recent reports indicate that the O’s are still shooting for the moon. With several weeks left until the trade deadline, of course, that’s arguably just what they ought to be doing. Still, the odds seem long that the club’s most optimistic wishes will be fulfilled.

Baltimore will no doubt drive a particularly hard bargain with the Yankees, who stand as recent entrants to the Machado derby. The Orioles are willing to deal their best player to their division rivals, according to Jon Morosi of MLB.com (via Twitter), but only if they score pitching prospect Justus Sheffield. He’s an unsurprising target, but that appears to be rather a steep ask given the 22-year-old’s pedigree and performance this year. The southpaw entered the year rated as one of the game’s fifty or so best prospects and has mowed down hitters at both the Double-A and Triple-A levels, turning in 85 innings of 2.44 ERA ball with 10.1 K/9 against 4.0 BB/9.

Given the Yanks’ slate of needs, both now and in the near future, sending Sheffield out for Machado wouldn’t seem to make a whole lot of sense. Morosi does add on Twitter that the club’s “need for Machado increases greatly if they trade Miguel Andujar for a controllable pitcher,” but that concept seems to fold in quite a notable bit of speculation — namely, that the team is considering parting with the talented Andujar, who is already a useful (albeit still-raw) MLB player. Perhaps there are some low-likelihood scenarios where Yankees GM Brian Cashman manages such a multi-part balancing act, but that doesn’t make the concept of Sheffield-for-Machado any more facially reasonable as a value proposition.

It doesn’t seem that the Orioles are holding only the Yanks’ feet to the fire, however. Baltimore is also trying to secure a top young arm from the Indians, Morosi also tweets. The ask, in that case, is for either Triston McKenzie or Shane Bieber. Neither pitcher figures to be parted with lightly, particularly for a rental piece.

McKenzie graded as one of the best pitching prospects in baseball entering the year and has spun 38 1/3 innings of 3.05 ERA ball in his first attempt at the Double-A level. He’s not getting quite as many strikeouts as in prior years, with 7.5 per nine, but is allowing less than a batter per inning to get aboard. As for Bieber, he has never enjoyed the hype of McKenzie (to say nothing of the pop star who shares his last name). But he’s turning plenty of heads now. The 23-year-old owns a 3.47 ERA with 8.9 K/9 and 1.5 BB/9 through his first 36 1/3 MLB frames.

Needless to say, it’s particularly difficult to imagine the Cleveland organization giving up a player who is currently making a significant contribution in the majors. The same holds for the Brewers, who face a tight divisional race and have long been cited as a potential buyer of pitching.

In talks with Milwaukee, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reported recently (subscription link), the O’s have tried with little success to get the Brewers to offer up Corbin Burnes. He, too, is a top-100 prospect. Despite middling results at Triple-A, he sported solid K/BB numbers there and just turned in a memorable MLB debut in a multi-inning relief capacity.

It came as some surprise, then, when Rosenthal’s colleague Jim Bowden tweeted today that the Brewers “have discussed [a] package” of not only Burnes, but also Keon Broxton and Orlando Arcia, as a potential means of landing Machado. Perhaps there’s more to this concept than is evident from that single tweet, but it seems questionable that the Milwaukee organization would even contemplate such an arrangement. Indeed, Jon Heyman of Fancred reports on Twitter that there’s “no way” of the O’s landing that particular haul for Machado.

Certainly, it’s understandable that the O’s are pushing to get a foundational arm as they bid adieu to a franchise cornerstone. And with so many contending clubs showing serious interest — the Dodgers, Diamondbacks, and Phillies are among the others tied to Machado in recent weeks — it’s still possible that there’ll be a surprising return. While plenty of other teams figure to function as sellers, after all, none have anything close to a rental player of Machado’s caliber on offer.

That said, the odds are decidedly against the Orioles convincing a contender to give up a quality, near-to-the-majors starter. Such players are not only prized for their long-term value — the tantalizing possibility of quality output at a bargain price for multiple seasons — but also their potential near-term impact. Some of the hurlers noted above have already or could soon reach the majors. And most of the top-rated pre-MLB hurlers could at least be significant staff members at some point in the 2019 season. Perhaps there’s some room for creativity, potentially including package arrangements and/or a willingness to pay down salary, to facilitate the acquisition of the type of asset the Orioles seek. But getting something done is going to require the exploration of quite a few possibilities and plenty of negotiation, which perhaps more than anything explains the volume of reporting we’ve seen of late on conceivable Machado trade permutations.

2:40pm: Outfielder Brett Phillips is one prospect who could go from the Brewers to the Orioles in a potential trade package, reports ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick (via Twitter). Phillips doesn’t have a clear path to playing time in an outfield mix that has Lorenzo Cain, Christian Yelich, Ryan Braun, Eric Thames and Domingo Santana, but he’s more or less big league ready and could give Baltimore a potential replacement for Adam Jones in center field. Crasnick notes that Jones, a free agent at season’s end and a trade candidate in his own right, wouldn’t stay in center field beyond 2018 even if he ultimately returned to the O’s.

Phillips, 24, is in his second season at the Triple-A level and has batted a combined .280/.359/.498 with 23 homers and 20 steals through 716 plate appearances at that level. He entered the season ranked as the game’s No. 80 overall prospect, per Baseball America.

9:34am: Morosi now tweets that in addition to Buehler and Verdugo, the Dodgers are also unlikely to include Ruiz in a trade for a rental player.

Morosi echoes a prior report from USA Today’s Bob Nightengale, writing that he hears Dodgers Class-A right-hander Dustin May is of particular interest to the Orioles. So, too, is Double-A catcher Keibert Ruiz, whom Baseball America recently dubbed the No. 26 prospect in all of baseball. It’s not clear how willing the Dodgers are to part with either player, though Morosi notes that L.A. would be reluctant to trade away either Walker Buehler or Alex Verdugo for a half-season of Machado (or any rental player).

The Brewers, however, appear to be a better fit in terms of the type of MLB-ready arms that they can offer, Morosi observes. Corbin Burnes and Luis Ortiz are both on the cusp of MLB readiness (to say nothing of Brandon Woodruff), and the Brewers have multiple players with MLB experience that have been back and forth between Triple-A and the Majors this season, including Orlando Arcia, Domingo Santana and Keon Broxton.

Meanwhile, Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com reports that some of the teams who’ve approached the Orioles have expressed interest in package deals involving both Machado and one of the Orioles’ relievers — Zach Britton, Brad Brach and Mychal Givens, specifically. The Orioles are open to packaging Machado and Britton or Machado and Brach in order to enhance a potential return, per Kubatko, but the team’s preference would be to hang onto Givens, who is controlled through 2021.

It’s certainly easy to understand why the O’s would prefer to hang onto Givens, whose stock is down from last year thanks to worsened control an a half-mile-per-hour dip in his average fastball velocity. There’s no urgency to trade him as there would be with Brach or the struggling Britton, each of whom is a free agent at season’s end. If Givens is finishes the season strongly or turns things around in 2019, his value could take a substantial step forward given that remaining club control. Of course, there’s also a case to be made that the O’s should be amenable to the idea of trading virtually anyone on the roster, given the poor quality of the farm system and the sizable gap between them and the Yankees and Red Sox — not only in 2018 but over the next few seasons as Baltimore reshapes its roster.

The Brewers made a significant series of roster moves on Friday, acquiring veteran backstop Erik Kratz from the Yankees in exchange for cash and designating Jett Bandy for assignment to clear a spot on the roster. Both teams have announced the trade. Additionally, Milwaukee announced that shortstop Orlando Arcia and righty Jorge Lopez have been optioned to Triple-A Colorado Springs in favor of veteran infielder Eric Sogard and right-hander Adrian Houser.

Set to turn 38 in June, Kratz is off to a .269/.356/.538 start with the Yankees’ Triple-A affiliate. While he doesn’t have a lengthy track record at the big league level, he’s shown throughout parts of eight big league seasons that he possess some pop, homering 24 times in 649 plate appearances and notching a .163 ISO. Of course, Kratz’s overall .203/.250/.366 slash line in that time has been sub-par and serves to illustrate why his time in the Majors has been sporadic. To his credit, he’s halted 34 percent of stolen-base attempts against him in the Majors and has been similarly effective throughout his minor league career (32 percent).

As for Bandy, the Brewers will have a week to trade him, Ttry to pass him through outright waivers or release him. The 28-year-old showed a bit of promise early in his career with the Angels but has struggled in two seasons with Milwaukee, hitting just .202/.282/.326. While Milwaukee GM David Stearns has made his share of shrewd moves since taking over the team’s baseball operations department, the decision to flip Martin Maldonado to the Angels in exchange for Bandy likely ranks among his most regrettable swaps, as Maldonado has provided more with the bat and also took home an AL Gold Glove last season in his first year with the Halos.

Arcia, meanwhile, looked to have gone a long way toward establishing himself as a regular in the Milwaukee infield last season. After struggling as a 21-year-old in his debut back in 2016, the longtime top prospect hit .277/.324/.407 with 15 home runs and 14 stolen bases last season. The 2018 season, however, has proven to be a full course reversal at the dish.

Through 146 trips to the dish this season, Arcia has mustered a feeble .194/.233/.273 slash with two homers and five doubles. His walk rate is down two percent, his strikeout rate is up five percent, and his 28.6 percent hard-contact rate is considerably south of the league average. Arcia has contributed quality glovework, to be sure, but that apparently wasn’t deemed enough to salvage his spot on the roster for the time being.

Tyler Saladino figures to be the primary beneficiary of the Brewers’ decision to offer Arcia a mental reset of sorts, as he’s hit well in his brief time since being acquired from the White Sox and offers a solid glove in his own right. While the 28-year-old certainly doesn’t possess the same upside as Arcia, who once ranked as one of the game’s 10 to 15 top overall prospects, he’ll serve as a stopgap while Arcia seeks to remedy his swing and improve upon his plate discipline in a lower-pressure setting.

FanRag’s Jon Heyman kicks off his weekly notes column by ranking the 20 best trades in the past two years, with the Blue Jays’ Josh Donaldson acquisition topping the list. Certainly a good deal of hindsight is used when crafting any such list, and the development of certain prospects could change the way we perceive some of these still-fresh deals, but many of the swaps listed do indeed look lopsided one way or another at the moment.

Some highlights from the column…

The White Sox never even put Chris Sale or Jose Quintana on trade waivers last month, knowing that there wouldn’t be time to negotiate a sufficient return in the limited 47-hour window after the respective aces were claimed. They’ll instead explored trade scenarios for both pitchers once again this winter, though owner Jerry Reinsdorf isn’t keen on rebuilding. Todd Frazier was claimed on trade waivers but pulled back, according to Heyman, whereas outfielder Melky Cabrera made it through waivers but remained in Chicago despite his above-average offensive production dating back to last June.

The Marlins will try to find a No. 2 type starter this winter to slot between Jose Fernandez and Wei-Yin Chen, but the usual caveats apply: this offseason bears a historically poor crop of free-agent starting pitching, and the Marlins’ paper-thin farm system makes it difficult to land a high-quality pitcher via trade. Per Heyman, the Marlins are frequently asked about Christian Yelich and J.T. Realmuto but are loath to part with either rising star. He also adds that manager Don Mattingly is strongly in favor of the team re-signing Martin Prado.

Jonathan Villar’s strong play for the Brewers this season has apparently created some wishful thinking among other clubs, as there’s been increased interest in top prospect Orlando Arcia, but the Brewers are “not entertaining offers” for the highly touted 22-year-old.

Aaron Judge’s struggles notwithstanding, the Yankees won’t seek outfield help this offseason, GM Brian Cashman told Heyman. In addition to Brett Gardner, Jacoby Ellsbury, Judge and Aaron Hicks, Cashman pointed out that the Yankees also have Clint Frazier and Mason Williams, commenting that players with Frazier’s level of talent can force their way onto the big league roster quickly. The GM also expressed confidence that Luis Severino can stick as a starting pitcher and talked about the rapid development of Gary Sanchez on the heels of the young catcher’s stunning late-season breakout.

Lourdes Gurriel Jr., the younger brother of Astros infielder/DH Yulieski Gurriel, will host a showcase for interested teams on Sep. 14 in Panama City, according to Heyman. The Cardinals are one of about 20 teams planning to go watch the young shortstop, he notes. While the showcase will allow teams to get a look at the younger Gurriel, I can’t envision him actually signing until his 23rd birthday passes on Oct. 19. At that point, Gurriel will no longer be considered an amateur, and thus will no longer be subject to international signing bonuses.

The Blue Jays will make the obvious decisions to extend qualifying offers to Edwin Encarnacion and Jose Bautista, and they’re also considering a QO for Michael Saunders. While that might’ve seemed like a highly implausible scenario a few months back, Saunders has been quite good in a full, healthy season. In 500 plate appearances, the 29-year-old is slashing .266/.348/.505 with 23 homers — though he hasn’t been as good in the season’s second half. Saunders’ injury history could at least create some pause, but given his quality offensive output and lack of a platoon split in 2016, I think he’d be able to secure a nice multi-year pact even if he turned down the sizable one-year offer.

The Brewers are promoting top prospect Orlando Arcia prior to today’s game, the team announced overnight. Rays outfielder Oswaldo Arcia — Orlando’s older brother — first suggested as much by welcoming his younger brother to the Majors on Instagram.

Arcia, 21, will take over as the Brewers’ shortstop, as MLB.com’s Adam McCalvy writes, thereby pushing Jonathan Villar over to third base. Arcia ranked seventh, 13th, 14th and 16th on the respective midseason rankings of the game’s top overall prospects from Baseball Prospectus, MLB.com, Baseball America and ESPN. Arcia draws huge amounts of praise for his defense at shortstop, his speed and his hit tool, giving him the potential to be a top-of-the-order hitter with Gold Glove caliber defense at a premium position if all pans out. He hasn’t exactly forced his way onto the roster with outstanding play at the Triple-A level like many top-tier prospects do, as he’s batted a modest .267/.320/.403 in a very hitter-friendly environment (the Pacific Coast League’s Colorado Springs). He’s extremely young to already have spent several months in Triple-A, though, and his perhaps underwhelming 2016 results clearly didn’t cause him to slip down prospect rankings much.

“The thinking is it’s time to get him started,” manager Craig Counsell tells McCalvy. “We’ve still got [58] games left, a good chunk of the season left, where we’re hopeful that it gives him good experience going into next year. I think it’s a little shot in the arm for us, a little boost for us, as well.”

If he’s in the Majors for good, Arcia will accrue 62 days of big league service in 2016 and fall well shy of Super Two status down the line. He currently projects to be controllable through the 2022 season and wouldn’t be eligible for arbitration until the completion of the 2019 campaign.

The real question facing the Padres at present is not whether to buy or sell, but how far to go in moving pieces, writes Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com. At least one rival GM expects the club to “sell big,” and Heyman says that San Diego is “offering around” closer Craig Kimbrel and starter James Shields, both of whom are under long-term control. While the former would figure to have a wide market, potentially including the Blue Jays, Nationals, and Dodgers, another GM says that he believes the club would have to chip in cash to move Shields. That may indicate that he could become an August trade piece, Heyman suggests, because he could well clear waivers. San Diego is interested in adding a young shortstop, he goes on to note, and has looked at several of the Brewers options (Jean Segura, Luis Sardinas, and top prospect Orlando Arcia).

Here are more highlights from the column:

Heyman hears that the Tigers are still weighing their options, too, and have not decided to sell. The club could even add an arm, he says, and is likely to see how its next two series play out before reaching a final conclusion.

While the Cubs are indeed willing to consider including Starlin Castro or Javier Baez in a deal for Cole Hamels of the Phillies, a source tells Heyman that the team would not be interested in moving both to add the lefty. Philadelphia’s plans for Hamels remain something of a mystery, but per the report the club may be backing down from its previous high-end demands from clubs like the Dodgers (Corey Seager or Julio Urias) and Red Sox (Mookie Betts or Blake Swihart).

There is now virtually no chance that Phillies lefty Cliff Lee will try to make it back this year, and he appears likely to retire over the winter.

As they approach the deadline and look ahead to free agency, the Cubs have some limitations on their spending capacity but will nevertheless try to add David Price (at least once he hits the open market). Meanwhile, the team has at least some interest in Reds starter Mike Leake as a trade piece but are somewhat hesitant to pursue rental options. While the Giants have plenty of rotation options, they too have considered Leake.

While we’ve just heard a suggestion that the Orioles could reverse course, Heyman says that they are still weighing outfield additions. The team has considered rental pieces like Marlon Byrd, Gerardo Parra, and Justin Upton. And he suggests that Carl Crawford or Shane Victorino could make sense as well; presumably, Baltimore would only be interested in either if their current clubs paid down a good bit of salary.

The Orioles intend to make qualifying offers after the season not only to Matt Wieters and Chris Davis, but also to lefty Wei-Yin Chen. The 30-year-old never seemed like a qualifying offer-level player, but was strong last year and has put up even better results in 2015 (while significantly outperforming his peripherals, it should be noted).

The Red Sox have received no trade interest in struggling first baseman Mike Napoli, says Heyman, but has gotten hits on Victorino as well as bullpen arms Koji Uehara and Junichi Tazawa.

The White Sox are looking to add some volume if they deal righty Jeff Samardzija, says Heyman. Chicago would like to pick up four young pieces in any trade.

While the Marlins have fielded interest in righty Tom Koehler and super utilityman Martin Prado, the club is not interested in dealing either player at present. Meanwhile, Miami is open to dealing veteran Dan Haren, but has rebuffed at least one club that asked for money to be sent along with him.

The Yankees are looking at both second base and top rotation candidates, says Heyman, but don’t feel a pressing need to add in either area. New York has no interest in veteran Diamondbacks infielder Aaron Hill, he adds.

Be sure to check out the rest of the piece for more notes on many of the teams around the league.

Jon Heyman of CBS Sports kicks off his weekly Inside Baseball column by reporting that the Dodgers have “quietly continued having dialogue with the Phillies” regarding Cole Hamels. The Dodgers are also giving serious consideration to the rental market and prioritizing Johnny Cueto over others among such targets. The Dodgers “appear determined” to land a top-of-the-rotation arm to pair with Clayton Kershaw and Zack Greinke, writes Heyman, but most executives think they’ll hold onto top prospects Corey Seager and Julio Urias. The Dodgers have a deep farm system beyond that pairing (righty Jose De Leon has recently been ranked a Top 25 prospect by Baseball America and ESPN), and one exec tells Heyman that the Phillies’ asking price on Hamels has become “more reasonable” recently. The Dodgers feel that Greinke is a lock to opt out of his contract at the end of the season, and while they could possibly re-sign him by adding a year or two to the deal and upping his $24.5MM AAV, Hamels would provide insurance should Greinke sign elsewhere. Jeff Samardzija is also a consideration for the Dodgers, but while they like him, they consider him more of a No. 2/3 starter and don’t love him.

Some more highlights from Heyman’s article, though the synopsis won’t cover everything within the piece, so I’d highly recommend reading it in its entirety…

The Braves will be deadline sellers, Heyman hears, with Jim Johnson, Juan Uribe and Cameron Maybin among the players that will be available to interested teams. Chris Johnson, too, continues to be available, but there are no takers for his contract, which Atlanta has aggressively tried to move in the past.

With the Reds expected to trade so many veterans to other clubs, many in the industry expect the team to make a run at extending Todd Frazier beyond his current two-year deal, Heyman writes. (Frazier has one more year of arbitration following his current pact.) Jeff Todd and I have discussed Frazier’s situation on the MLBTR Podcast in the past (and will do so again this afternoon), and I’ve personally taken the stance that given the significant commitments to Joey Votto and Homer Bailey, the Reds could have a difficult time affording Frazier, whose 2014-15 breakout has hugely inflated his price tag. Given the lack of impact bats on the trade market, Frazier would net a king’s ransom and could rapidly expedite the rebuilding process, though the PR hit of trading him with so much control and on the heels of a Home Run Derby victory would of course be significant.

In other Reds news, Heyman hears Mike Leake’s ground-ball tendencies are appealing to AL East clubs, and he’s drawn interest from the Blue Jays, Orioles and Red Sox in addition to the Royals, Dodgers, Rangers, Cubs and Giants. Manny Parra and Marlon Byrd are both “likely to go” as well.

Asked about the possibility of signing with the Cubs this offseason due to his relationship with skipper Joe Maddon, Tigers ace David Price replied, “Wherever I play baseball next year it’s not going to be because of a manager.”

The Astros are interested in both Cueto and Leake, and Houston seems willing to deal from its glut of MLB-ready outfield prospects, including Domingo Santana and Preston Tucker. (Previous reports have indicated they’re reluctant to part with Brett Phillips, however, who may be the best among the outfield bunch.)

The Brewers are now showing a willingness to trade both Carlos Gomez and Jean Segura, Heyman hears. Though it was previously believed they were reluctant to move Segura, the emergence of Orlando Arcia (the younger brother of the Twins’ Oswaldo Arcia) may have changed Milwaukee’s thinking. However, Arcia himself is also drawing a huge amount of trade interest, and the Padres have called to express interest. One NL exec called him the best player he’s seen in the minors this year, while another comped him to Francisco Lindor, but said Arcia is better. Regarding Segura, Heyman hears that the Mets dislike his free-swinging approach.

The Twins aren’t closed off to the idea of re-acquiring Gomez from the Brewers, but their primary focus at this point is bullpen help.

The Mets are aiming high in their pursuit of an outfield bat and have both Gomez and Justin Upton on their radar. They’re not likely to add Aramis Ramirez from the Brewers unless they receive bad news on the prognosis of David Wright. They also have little interest in swinging a deal for Uribe.

Padres officials insist that they haven’t determined their course of action heading into the deadline, but Heyman writes that free-agents-to-be such as Upton, Ian Kennedy, Joaquin Benoit and Will Venable could be traded regardless. James Shields’ backloaded contract limits his value, but one GM felt Benoit has “big value” and Heyman notes that Craig Kimbrel would be in huge demand as well, should the Padres try to recoup some value from that deal.

Cueto, Samardzija and Leake are atop the Blue Jays’ wish list, and the team was also in talks with the Braves regarding Jason Grilli prior to his season-ending injury. A top starting pitcher is Toronto’s top priority at this point, says Heyman. He also adds that there’s no evidence to suggest that manager John Gibbons is on the hot seat.