This is a discussion on All in pre-flop within the online poker forums, in the Learning Poker section; There are a few irrationally aggressive players around.
The play the pre-flop like it is a lottery.
All-in every hand.
I am a cautious player so far so

I have folded pocket aces and jacks which is frustrating but I prefer to play poker than play the lottery.

My question is what are the actual odds of winning heads up against another player when you have a top pair (obviously the odds will vary for each top pair)

Couldn't find the answer on google.

#2

9th August 2017, 2:38 PM

paulinhlt [230]

Game: texas holden

Before the flop pops up, you need to put your opponent in some range of hands.
After the flop, and you are a top pair, you can choose to check or mini-raise. In the case of a raise, if your opponent pays, you must again decrease the hand range and from the turn, you can raise by bluff or value, according to your opponent's range reading and thus extract the maximum of chips.

Of course not always the top pair on the flop will pull the pot, so the readings before the plays are essential.

#3

9th August 2017, 2:51 PM

twizzybop [2,380]

Game: holdem

That amazes me still. Folding the best starting pre-flop hand, especially pre-flop.
Why be afraid to lose when you have the best and you are doing your best?
Having the best percentage to win pre-flop isn't ever going to be a bad thing.

#4

9th August 2017, 2:59 PM

mojorising [97]

I understand how to calculate potential range based on a flop.

But before the flop the only thing you know is that he does not have your 2 hole cards.

I have an opponent who is behaving in an irrationally aggressive way so I would say his hole cards could really be anything. He is betting all in as if he is not even looking at the hole cards.

To take an imaginary situation:-

I am on pocket aces and I have an imaginary opponent who literally has not looked at his hole cards but has gone all-in then what are the odds of beating him if I go all in?

The calculator says that with random cards for the other 3 players I would only have a 48.94% chance of winning at the showdown holding pocket aces pre-flop.

The first crazy player was going all in UTG. I was holding pocket aces UTG+1. There were 2 more players after me.

#8

9th August 2017, 3:59 PM

Dani_California [192]

Online Poker at: Full Tilt

Game: Hold'em

Originally Posted by mojorising

There are a few irrationally aggressive players around.

The play the pre-flop like it is a lottery.

All-in every hand.

I am a cautious player so far so I always fold.

I have folded pocket aces and jacks which is frustrating but I prefer to play poker than play the lottery.

My question is what are the actual odds of winning heads up against another player when you have a top pair (obviously the odds will vary for each top pair)

Couldn't find the answer on google.

First of all, folding Aces preflop is a huge mistake from your side. You have the best hand, you have to call. Don't even think about odds. I would be thrilled if someone would go all-in preflop when I'm holding Aces. Same thing with Kings. I mean, think about it: are you folding a straight if someone goes all-in and there's a flush draw at the table? I don't think so. You have to take a shot with the best hand even though there is a possibility to lose on later streets. If you lose, that's poker and bad luck. It's part of the game. If you are holding Aces, your opponent needs at least two cards to beat you unless they are holding a pocket pair too. And if they are, they still need one more card to win unless they are holding Aces as well.

I know I'm not really answering your question here but if you are against someone who goes all-in in EVERY hand, you have to start calling them much wider. Even with those Jacks. Most of the time they have nothing but rubbish. I would call them with AK and AQ as well. Maybe even AJ and pocket 10's.

#9

9th August 2017, 4:05 PM

Serjo600 [666]

Poker at: PS Party 888

Game: razz

play the limit games

#10

9th August 2017, 4:18 PM

TeUnit [2,077]

Online Poker at: PokerStars

Game: holdem, sng,

Please dont fold AA preflop unless there is some weird icm situation.

You would be better off establishing a range for the villan and calling appropriately, maybe use a push fold chart if you have to.

#11

9th August 2017, 4:25 PM

Mini1380 [151]

Poker at: Mini13801

Game: Nl holdem

For me it all depends who goes all in pre flop and why they are going all I pre flop. If it's a super tight player I will call all in with aa. But some times if a player has just lost a big hand I will call him with a high card if I think he is tilt. Also it depends if they have me our chipped or I have them out chipped.

#12

9th August 2017, 4:47 PM

mojorising [97]

I confess to being more cautious than normal due to it being my first session on higher stakes tables.

Just to make matters worse the cards flopped a set of aces - but I had already folded!

Regarding that link. I am not sure if has bugs but when I give myself aces and my only opponent aces it says we both have 2% chance of winning but obviously that is wrong as we must both have 50% chance of winning.

#13

9th August 2017, 5:11 PM

Dani_California [192]

Poker at: Full Tilt

Game: Hold'em

Originally Posted by mojorising

I confess to being more cautious than normal due to it being my first session on higher stakes tables.

All in meant 10% of my bankroll on one hand.

Just to make matters worse the cards flopped a set of aces - but I had already folded!

Regarding that link. I am not sure if has bugs but when I give myself aces and my only opponent aces it says we both have 2% chance of winning but obviously that is wrong as we must both have 50% chance of winning.

Climing up the stakes can be hard and scary but even so, folding Aces is not a way to go. Especially when your opponent has been as aggressive as you described. You should always play according to your bankroll in a way that it doesn't make you scared of losing the whole buy-in. Only then you can play relaxed game and make right decisions, without a fear of losing. But maybe these comments here will open your eyes little bit. I sincerely hope that you will call with those Aces next time Good luck!

#14

9th August 2017, 7:25 PM

Bobomb [73]

re: Poker & All in pre-flop

Originally Posted by mojorising

The calculator says that with random cards for the other 3 players I would only have a 48.94%

It gives me a higher number, as does Equilab.

If you can't afford to play a profitable spot, you're playing at too high a stake.

#15

9th August 2017, 7:46 PM

mojorising [97]

Originally Posted by Bobomb

It gives me a higher number, as does Equilab.

What are the equilab numbers?

I will need to find a reliable probability calculator.

#16

9th August 2017, 8:04 PM

ohshootmybad [8,047]

Originally Posted by mojorising

I confess to being more cautious than normal due to it being my first session on higher stakes tables.

All in meant 10% of my bankroll on one hand.

Are you able to beat the stakes before the current one you're playing?

10% if your BR is a lot. If your roll is only $100, that's a $10 buy-in. If the risk of losing 10% of your BR with AA is affecting your good decision making, drop down in stakes and increase your BR management.

For MTTs, you should have at least 100 buy-ins or $1 for a roll of $100.

For cash, I think 30-40 buy-ins is good.

#17

9th August 2017, 9:26 PM

Gabinho12345 [1,268]

Folding AA preflop is much worse than going all in every hand.

#18

10th August 2017, 4:57 AM

mojorising [97]

Anyway the point of the thread was really to try and find out if there is an accurate online poker probability calculator which can answer probability questions of the type posed in the OP?

Of course, they're not losing any money and if they hit they're in a better position than everyone else. I've been stung by it so many times, most of the time when i finally hit a premium hand and call, he hits a pair of 2's or a straight/flush

#21

10th August 2017, 6:48 PM

pretorijan [210]

Poker at: pokerstars

Game: omaha hi/lo

re: Poker & All in pre-flop

All in pre flop is only luck,nothing more!

#22

10th August 2017, 6:58 PM

mojorising [97]

Originally Posted by mojorising

Regarding that link. I am not sure if has bugs but when I give myself aces and my only opponent aces it says we both have 2% chance of winning but obviously that is wrong as we must both have 50% chance of winning.

The calculator says preflop I have 2.21% chance of winning and my opponent has 2.3% chance

But that cannot be right.

We both have 50% chance of winning since our hands are identical

That's the chance of WINNING, not drawing.

That's the chance of 4 suited cards coming up on the board

#24

10th August 2017, 7:48 PM

volcov [83]

Online Poker at: pokerstars

Game: holdem

There are days and hands that end up paying all in preflop as AA AK

#25

10th August 2017, 8:23 PM

AMTF1988 [348]

Poker at: 888 Poker

Originally Posted by AMTF1988

That's the chance of WINNING, not drawing.

That's the chance of 4 suited cards coming up on the board

Forgot to add, as soon as 3 different suits come up on the flop, it will change to 50/50 as at that point there is no chance of either hand winning

#26

10th August 2017, 9:06 PM

twizzybop [2,380]

Game: holdem

Originally Posted by pretorijan

All in pre flop is only luck,nothing more!

LOL no such thing as luck when you hold the "best" starting pre-flop hand all--in. Even if all 9 players go all-in including you, holding aces will always give you the "best" percentage to win.

Granted the more people all-in the more my percentage to win goes down. But again having the "best" percentage to win is definitely much more desirable then having the "worst" percentage to win. One doesn't need "luck" to win and/or catch up when again having the "best" to start out with.

#27

10th August 2017, 9:20 PM

Bobomb [73]

Originally Posted by pretorijan

All in pre flop is only luck,nothing more!

+EV luck, or -EV luck?

#28

10th August 2017, 10:32 PM

Acunaaldje [126]

Online Poker at: Pokerstars

Game: Holdem

re: Poker & All in pre-flop

It means he's predictable, use it!

#29

11th August 2017, 4:21 AM

liuouhgkres [123]

Played with equilab little bit. Gave opponent top 40%.

AA vs top 40% has 85%
KK vs top 40% has 78%
QQ vs top 40% has 73%
JJ vs top 40% has 69%
TT vs top 40% has 66%
AK vs top 40% has 65%
AQ vs top 40% has 63%

would be huge mistake to fold this hands against someone who is that agressive.

The calculator says preflop I have 2.21% chance of winning and my opponent has 2.3% chance

But that cannot be right.

We both have 50% chance of winning since our hands are identical

If your opponent has 2 red Aces and the flop is all red, they have a flush. Red cards have a slightly better chance of flopping, which is why your opponent has a slight edge to win preflop.

All reds - YouTube

#31

11th August 2017, 8:41 AM

Dani_California [192]

Poker at: Full Tilt

Game: Hold'em

Originally Posted by ohshootmybad

If your opponent has 2 red Aces and the flop is all red, they have a flush. Red cards have a slightly better chance of flopping, which is why your opponent has a slight edge to win preflop.

All reds - YouTube

If your opponent has two red Aces and the flop is all red, it's not a flush yet. Even though the flop would be all hearts or all diamonds, your opponent still needs one more card. I also don't believe that red cards would have any better chances of flopping something good than black cards. How would that be true?

#32

11th August 2017, 8:55 AM

gofish [144]

AA is 80%+ to win vs 1 opponent, unless of course they have AA too. You have to call vs 1 opponent. The only time to fold AA is when you're at a 9 seater table and the 8 donks before you go all in, you're much more likely to lose in that situation.

#33

11th August 2017, 1:33 PM

ohshootmybad [8,047]

Originally Posted by gofish

AA is 80%+ to win vs 1 opponent, unless of course they have AA too. You have to call vs 1 opponent. The only time to fold AA is when you're at a 9 seater table and the 8 donks before you go all in, you're much more likely to lose in that situation.

No. You still have the best chance at winning. All other hands in a 9 way all in have worse odds to win than AA.

#34

11th August 2017, 4:25 PM

Bobomb [73]

Originally Posted by pretorijan

The only time to fold AA is when you're at a 9 seater table and the 8 donks before you go all in

You need to shove that. You're risking one stack to win eight, with about a one-in-three chance of winning. That's profitable if you're all-in every time you're in that spot, with added table image bonus.