Guardian writers’ predicted position: 8th (NB: this is not necessarily Russell’s prediction, but the average of our writers’ tips)

Last season’s position: 9th

A team that won 13 of 16 games to start the 2013 season can’t simply disappear off the face of the earth, especially with a coach like Mark Thompson at the helm, but you have to wonder whether Essendon have the horsepower to do much damage this year.

The knock on the Bombers’ early season blitz last year, when they seemed to be running on adrenaline and indignance in equal measure, was that they beat up ordinary sides. But in fact they also defeated finals-bound sides in Richmond, Port Adelaide, Collingwood, Carlton and grand finalists Fremantle.

Morale is surely better this year by default, but the recent naming of 14 present and former players who admitted to the Australian Sports and Drug Administration (Asada) to having been injected with peptides is an unwelcome distraction for Thompson and his players as they gear up for round one.

“Our club is by no means in any crisis,” claimed Essendon chairman Paul Little, but the genie is well and truly out of the bottle now and the club can count on plenty of negative attention, if not of the same ferocity seen last year. Twelve months on from the scandal breaking, Asada has still to lay charges and the mood has run from crisis to apathy and now mild unrest.

Still, the schedule grinds on. “We have just lifted our game. It is starting to feel like a real club again,” said Thompson at the club’s season launch. The Bombers are hoping to make a fresh start in more ways than one, with a new training facility in Tullamarine a significant upgrade from their more modest digs in Windy Hill. Where Thompson has been less convincing is in discussing the ways in which the Bombers are going to kick winning scores.

One option smiling back at him is apprentice forward Joe Daniher, whose toothy grin isn’t the only thing that’s vaguely equine; the budding forward is now the size of a horse as well and will provide Dons fans with no small measure of excitement throughout the season. Whether he spends some time in the ruck following Tom Bellchambers’s season-ending knee injury remains to be seen, but he will at least provide a sizeable target up forward as Essendon try to fill several holes left by the departure of Stewart Crameri.

The midfield brigade will be led again by indefatigable skipper Jobe Watson, who can now rely on consistently high-level support from David Zaharakis, flashes of class from Brent Stanton and a rotation of steady ball winners in Brendan Goddard, Dyson Heppell, Heath Hocking, Jake Melksham, Ben Howlett, David Myers and Jason Winderlich. The latter is forever relegated to the status of wildcard due to a steady flow of injury frustration. Since starring in 2009-10, he’s figured in just 18 games.

Michael Hibberd will again provide consistent and effective rebound from defence and remains one of the most underrated players in the competition. Of concern to the Bombers out of their NAB Challenge hit-out was the ability of Port Adelaide forwards Jay Schulz and Justin Westhoff to take 16 contested marks between them, and Jake Carlisle may have a lot on his plate this year after an impressive first half of 2013. Help will come from Michael Hurley, 38-year old footballing cockroach Dustin Fletcher, Tayte Pears and Cale Hooker; all mobile big men with differing limitations who will need to find continuity between them.

High-profile recruit Paul Chapman is destined to have the prefix “32-year-old” added to every mention of his name, but it would be unfair to expect the world of the ex-Geelong premiership star, a man deemed surplus to requirements at his old club. He should be thought of as a finals specialist at this point and Dons fans know that punting on the leg-weary goal-sneak is a risk worth taking.

Otherwise, Essendon’s lack of firepower up forward shapes as their most glaring and potentially fatal flaw in 2014. Daniher has limitless potential but remains raw; a gangly work experience kid who will still be bumping into desks and quietly wondering where to put his handful of files. He’ll fade from view at times, as is the rookie’s right. The temptation therefore will be send Hurley in as the spearhead, but there’s no sufficient proof that it would be a winning strategy.

In all likelihood the Dons will need an increased goal-scoring output from their midfielders. Last year Goddard (18 goals), Watson (16) and Melksham (16) helped out, but Zaharakis (9), Heppell (8) and perhaps even Hocking (5) will need to lift their output, because the side is not blessed with small forwards and Chapman will be a week-by-week proposition.

In the absence of Bellchambers, Paddy Ryder will have to toil endlessly in the ruck against much larger opponents, but his agility will be an asset around the ground if he’s not run into the ground through overwork. Further improvement might come from nuggetty on-baller Mark Baguley, who has shown himself capable of valuable shut-down roles on opposition midfielders.

If the endless saga of the Asada investigation and the spectre of a middling season gets Dons supporters down, they can at least take solace in the fact that Fletcher will break Simon Madden’s club games record in round one and maybe (and it’s a very big maybe) reach the magical 400-game mark as September rolls around.