I would agree with that...diplomatically the US typically negotiates with weakness. Look at the peace talks during the Vietnam war. Look at virtually
any diplomacy by the US since the early part of the 20th century.

If you are a weak negotiator...you will always lose. We lost. Kerry and Obama were more concerned about just getting a treaty...any treaty... than
actually working out a functioning one.

I am pretty sure the congress is going to shot this # down.

No doubt the group dynamics played a part... but achieving a workable inspection schedule involving surprise inspections should have been the deal
breaker. No surprise inspections, no deal.

I would agree with that...diplomatically the US typically negotiates with weakness. Look at the peace talks during the Vietnam war. Look at virtually
any diplomacy by the US since the early part of the 20th century.

If you are a weak negotiator...you will always lose. We lost. Kerry and Obama were more concerned about just getting a treaty...any treaty... than
actually working out a functioning one.

I am pretty sure the congress is going to shot this # down.

Not sure if the USA could have done anything else.

They got backed into a corner, if the USA had walked and the other nations stayed then the USA would of lost huge points in diplomatic credibility
and reinforced the world war monger reputation. Plus the EU country's and China could kick up a stink as we all have strong economic links. Russia
is the only one here that has little leverage thanks to Ukraine.

End of the day Israel should have been at the table alongside the USA as it would have given you more clout and a higher position to negotiate from.
Netty shot himself and his country in the foot.

The US military may be vast and powerful but invading and occuping a country requires huge resources that have stretched the US military in the past
even with our help.

Look at Iraq and Afghanistan. In Afghanistan the UK and French did a lot of heavy work and after nearly 15 years we have only just been able to
withdraw. Iraq was just as bad and you only had us.

For Iran? Not only is it bigger but it has sharper teeth.

I'm not saying the USA can't do it on its own, but if you did you would need a draft, a big one. You think that would go down with the US public well
in this day and age?

Hell look at vietnam, you did that without a major allie and not only did you have trouble but the draft litrally destroyed public support from the
beginning. At one point the US were practical begging for the UK to help (thankfully we didnt, though it cost as support in the seuz crisis) .

Then there is logistics. The USAF rely heavily on UK and French oversea bases, particularly deago garcia and Cyprus. If we cut them off from use
USAF takes a big hit, hell look at the trouble France caused when it (rightfully) blocked use of its airspace for USA and UK military planes in
Iraq. Again usaf could overcome that but at great cost, costs which the USA can't really afford right now.

originally posted by: bbracken677
The US is weaker than Iran? What are you smoking? lol

Militarily no, but diplomatically on this issue the US had very little negotiating position. Frankly we got a fantastic deal given the circumstances.
The UK, Germany, France, Russia, and China all wanted a deal and were willing to work with Iran. The sanctions wouldn't last, or be effective in the
face of a deal so the US was either forced to participate and get something or walk away and get nothing. Like it or not we can't simply threaten to
blow everything up, the rest of the world won't stand for it and international relations are important.

originally posted by: bbracken677
How is a surprise inspection disruptive if you are doing nothing wrong? Hmm?

Because preparations need to be made for inspectors.

It's rather obvious to anyone with half a brain that requiring a 24 day notice PRIOR to inspection is for the express reason of assuring you
have enough time to hide crap. There is no other reason for that much advance notice.

24 days is not enough time to hide evidence. Radioactive material leaves behind residual radiation that can be detected.

Afterall, if you are doing nothing wrong, then a single surprise inspection a month would satisfy (should) both sides....if you are doing
nothing wrong. IF.....

How well would your business function if once a month you had the CEO and shareholders come in for a surprise inspection wanting to see presentations
of everyones work? The uncertain scheduling alone would create chaos. It's the same for a nation.

originally posted by: bbracken677
I am pretty sure the congress is going to shot this # down.

Congress will not shoot this down, if for no other reason than there is no choice other than to accept it. If we don't ratify the treaty, any
conditions we demanded from Iran will be dropped. This will seriously piss off the UK, France, and Germany who expended political capital elsewhere
on the idea that the US would ask for certain things. It also means the US will be the lone country sanctioning Iran and that we will lose any
diplomatic backing to attack Iran, potentially even bringing Europe to their defense.

Israel is a lot smaller and a much newer kid on the block, in terms of the last millennium, even if it was technically, arguably once a nation state
of some kind - rather than a mere citadel..... Iran has Persian roots that have added much to culture, art and science, globally over the years.
Israel has many nukes, so we are lead to believe, Iran does not....... Too much power in so few hands is not good on either side - but it is clear
Israel started this sprint within the arms decathlon - that never ends (well).... The US gets a massive investment opportunity, access to natural
resource (extraction & processing) markets and a guarantee of OIL FOR $$ HEGEMONY.....

Full military invasion would not be necessary. All we would have to do is to take out their air force and defensive positions and then run daily
bombing runs on anything that smells like a nuclear site of any kind. We rain down bunker busters on them and even though we may not take out the
whole of the facilities we could certainly prevent access.

Little muss, little fuss. All achievable from a couple of carriers. No need for overseas bases.

And that assumes there HAS to be the exercise of military might.... I dont believe we are at that stage.

The problem is with our leadership. No will... Same situation with Vietnam, as you pointed out, but different reasons. Our leaders had little will and
were looking for a way out. Meanwhile the Vietnamese stalled the "peace talks" to a degree that, along with our agreement not to bomb military targets
in NV, they had time to rebuild and mount more attacks. Poor leadership, weak negotiations... we dropped our pants and the Vietnamese took advantage
of it.

Same thing with the allies in the negotiations. I ask this question: were they there because they demanded to be included or were they there because
it looks better to have a front of allies involved in negotiations? Politically speaking, they were there because we thought it would look
better...........

Well it did not help the fact you should never have been in Vietnam in the first place which drastically weakend d power internationally and at
home.

As for the militarily I think you underestimate Iran. It has a pretty nasty anti air system with some modern anti air missiles that would be
dangerous for the carrier legacy fleet. You could punch through it I'm sure but at heavy cost.
F-35 and f-22 would be needed for a quick easy strike and if the UK and France block off there airspace and use of military bases the USAF will be in
logistical trouble. If the EU blocked off its airspace the USAF most direct and safe route into the area would be blocked.

As for the other powers at the table? It was more than show. Germany basically leads the Euro zone along with France and the UK is the banking
capital. Iran assets are frozen here as well. Seeing as most the world's banking passes through London at some point and the EU has a bigger
combined economy than the USA lifting sanctions s fro us is just as important.

Bovine excrement. If I have my house in order and I am not doing anything wrong, I can take an inspection any time with no loss of production.

24 days is not enough time to hide the evidence.....

Ok...I will say it this time: Bull crap

Because radioactive material leaves behind residual radiation that can be detected... alrighty!! I guess what they are really doing there is baking
cookies for Mrs. Fields!!!

I am going to take a shot in the dark here...just a wild guess... a supposition at most:
What are they doing there? Hmm.. they are refining radioactive material... creating military grade plutonium.

Taking a long reach outthere I am going to guess that this process (the same one we are going to be inspecting) will leave residual radiation that
will be indistinguishable from any additional refining they are doing. One would be inspecting a nuclear facility with at least background radiation a
tad above normal background. Would additional centrifuges and additional production alter that? Umm NOPE! There will still be radiation that is
slightly above normal background.

It's not like they are going to be refining plutonium in an open air sweatshop operated by little old ladies and sewing machines.

Not enough time to move equipement? Do you really have a clue wtf you just said? I can move industrial equipment that will be broken down into
individual sections...each section that weighs tons. I can do that and I can move all the equipment from the facility in less than 24 days with proper
preparation.

If someone engaged me to set up a process to move 10,000 centrifuges quickly and efficiently I could manage that and get them moved to a different
facility in less than 24 days.

Do you think that any modern factory that is replacing a piece of obsolete machinery takes months of downtime to pack it up, get it out and then
moving in the new machinery? Umm NOPE!! Not just NOPE! but HELL NO

Downtime means a loss of cashflow. With proper planning those centrifuges would be no sweat.... 24 days is a ridiculous amount of time.

You obviously underestimate the capability of the US air force. They can make mince meat out of any air defense system in the world, including their
own.

Saddam's air force and air defenses....what happened there?

Nevertheless...this is beginning to sound like "my dad can kick your dad's butt"......

RE Vietnam: I totally agree. We should not have been there to begin with. However, I have always maintained that we should not get involved in another
country's business such as that... but if for some reason we do wind up in the thick of it, then the kids gloves should come off and we should fight
to win, fight to win decisively and completely. Leave no enemy behind.

In short: Stay out of the crap. If we do get into it...kick ass quickly and completely and then leave.

All too stupidly we wind up in crap wars, not fighting seriously, putting handcuffs on our military and then crying because, in a war, people die.
Really? That makes no freakin sense whatsoever. Of course people die in a war. That is precisely why we should stay out of war unless we have no
choice, no option.

Negotiating weakly and without conviction, dropping our pants, is not the option I am speaking of.

...Or we make DEALS NOT WAR....... The most obvious one for EUROPE is for Iranian oil & gas to be refined in Greece and piped to European
nations....... Badly needed - ONE IN THE EYE OF RUSSIA..... etc... Of course, all oil will now be guaranteed to be paid for in dollars, by Europe,
still...

It's the 'hard ass kicking' bit that worries me............. PROPORTIONATE is my system of justice...... And I see all military war as total
wastage........ Your attitude is a bit schiz - cautious, yet, if it all goes tats up, BLOW IT ALL TO GOD DAMN PIECES!....... Iran is less aggressive
than that by a long way, historically, esp. in the last few centuries... Israel believes in 1000 eyes for en eye, in general, and half the world hates
their government rabidly, as a pariah, with good reason.....

originally posted by: bbracken677
Bovine excrement. If I have my house in order and I am not doing anything wrong, I can take an inspection any time with no loss of production.

That's not quite how the inspections work. The facility gets shut down while the inspections are happening, a lot of security footage needs to be
reviewed, machinery inspected, and so on.

I am going to take a shot in the dark here...just a wild guess... a supposition at most:
What are they doing there? Hmm.. they are refining radioactive material... creating military grade plutonium.

For the most part they aren't. There is an expected amount of output they need to show, they are limited to a very small amount of weapons grade
material, and the rest is only for energy production. The two are not the same thing, weapons grade material is refined to about 90% (slightly more
for plutonium) while material for reactors is enriched to a lower percentage, I'm not a nuclear scientist so I couldn't tell you the exact values.
What I can tell you is that it's very easy (just a small amount of algebra needed) to look at existing stores compared to maximum or expected output
and see if what they should be producing is what is produced.

Taking a long reach outthere I am going to guess that this process (the same one we are going to be inspecting) will leave residual radiation
that will be indistinguishable from any additional refining they are doing. One would be inspecting a nuclear facility with at least background
radiation a tad above normal background. Would additional centrifuges and additional production alter that? Umm NOPE! There will still be radiation
that is slightly above normal background.

Different grades of nuclear fuel have different half lives. Radioactive decay can be measured quite accurately so it's possible to detect what
material is there or has been there recently.

Not enough time to move equipement? Do you really have a clue wtf you just said? I can move industrial equipment that will be broken down into
individual sections...each section that weighs tons. I can do that and I can move all the equipment from the facility in less than 24 days with proper
preparation.

If someone engaged me to set up a process to move 10,000 centrifuges quickly and efficiently I could manage that and get them moved to a different
facility in less than 24 days.

I'm sure you could, and I'm sure they can. If you lay out your inspections right though, lets say it takes 12 days to covertly move and set up. It's
impossible to run a program because as soon as you move the equipment another inspection will be upcoming. 24 days is a short enough period of time
to prevent Iran from running a program that will stockpile nuclear material.

Edit: I should add that as time goes on the more important this deal becomes, and the greater the incentive Iran has to stick to it. Once everyone is
making money because of a lack of sanctions, they will want to continue to make money. If Iran violates the deal the sanctions snap back into place.
On the other hand, one of the strongest ways to get leverage with a nation is economically, sanctions completely cut off that leverage. In followup
deals (which we know will happen because this one is only good for 15 years or whatever it is) our negotiating position becomes stronger while the
pressure for Iran to accept a deal also increases.

Actually, what this deal reminds me of, in a vague sort of way, the "negotiations" that took place after Germany took Austria.....

Germany was emboldened by the weakness of the rest of Europe and the lack of resolve (which was way too late anyway) and just kept rolling.

Someone with some cojones could have prevented WWII.. According to the Treaty of Versailles the Germans were prevented from a military buildup. When
Germany started building subs and battleships and their air force...did anyone say "Whoa!" .... NOPE!

Now when Iran violates the treaty (as they have very other treaty they have agreed to) is anyone actually going to hold their feet to the fire?
Sadly, no...

a reply to: bbracken677
Yes the USAF can make mince meat I have no doubt. As I said the F22 a d f35 would make short work.

But the have to actually GET to the Persian gulf first.

And the USAF would be extremely restricted.

It rely heavily to get around on EU airspace and British bases. Deago garcia and Cyprus are key USAF assets for access to the ME. If the UK refused
USAF permission to use it as a Base of operations for Iran it would make life extremely difficult. If the EU closed it airspace the USAF would have
to take long and dangerous routes to get to were it needs to be with slow response times.

That leaves the USN carrier flee. It's potent but not a "I will " button. F18 will only get you so far. They are ageing fast. On top of that the
carriers can't get close to Iran due to the mine fields and anti ship missles which means striking at the heart of Iran will be tight on fuel.

As for Iranian defence I would not underestimate it. It's not Iraq. They have a good number of S-300 and possibly S-400 with Russia likely willing
to donate more. They are not to be sneered at. Legacy f15-18 craft are at risk. From them. The USAF can deal with them but they have to be near by
and quick to respond . The USN however is not yet equipped to deal with them effectively which means they will take losses.

This is not a my "dad is bigger than yours" argument, I fully concede the USA has the ability to crush Iran. But it's a case of can they bring those
assets to a fight if the International community cuts support. It's more a case of "your dad can beat mine but your mum took his car keys so he
can't turn up for the fight" argument. We are talking g logistics here rather than toe to toe strength.

What I'm saying g is bombing g Iran would t be quick or clean with out support of the International community.

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