ACA expanded it to individuals with incomes up to 138% of the federal $15,850 poverty level. The Supreme Court let states decide whether or not to participate.

So far 25 plus the District of Columbia chose to do so. Four others are considering it.

ACA initially pays 100% of the cost. Later it drops to 90%. The current formula splits costs around evenly between states and Washington.

In 2014, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimates about a nine million Medicaid enrollment increase.

Washington claims 3.9 million enrollees are people on Medicaid because of ACA provisions.

According to Assistant to the President and Deputy Senior Advisor for Communications and Strategy David Simas:

"When we break down the numbers a little bit more, this includes more than 2.1 million people who've enrolled in private plans through the federal and state-based marketplaces since October 1st and 3.9 million Americans who learned that they're eligible for coverage through Medicaid and the Children's Health Insurance Program, also known as CHIP, in October and November."

Administrator for the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) Marilyn Tavenner claims ACA is working as intended.

"Additionally, 3.9 million Americans learned they're eligible for coverage through Medicaid and the Children’s Health Insurance Program (CHIP) in October and November."

"These numbers include new eligibility determinations and some Medicaid and CHIP renewals."

According to WaPo, "(t)he word 'some' should be a tip-off. Here's what the number actually includes:

''Medicaid and CHIP eligibility determinations made directly through state Medicaid and CHIP offices in every state.

Medicaid and CHIP eligibility determinations made directly through state-based marketplaces (where the state is running their own marketplace).

New eligibility determinations as well as renewals - i.e., people previously enrolled in Medicaid who are deemed eligible for another year."

Something is missing, added WaPo:

"Any of the Medicaid or CHIP eligibility determinations made through healthcare.gov. (Through November, that figure was nearly 270,000 (not) 750,000."

"Note: this column was briefly posted with the (wrong) figure for the December report but the numbers have now been corrected."

Theoretically the Medicaid eligible November and December universe combined 3.9 million and 270,000.

CMS acknowledges some duplication. Maybe more than some. The actual number is unknown or unreported.

Reported numbers don't explain how many additional Medicaid enrollees ACA made possible. No one knows.

CMS claims accurate information will be available in April. It'll be when states bill Washington for their Q I refunds. According to WaPo:

"Determining how many people came out of the 'woodwork' - the previously eligible who suddenly focused on health care options and thus joined Medicaid - will take even more analysis."

It's false to claim ACA enrollees "are in any way equivalent to the 3.9 to 4.2 million" Medicaid eligible individuals.

December Medicaid enrollment numbers are due out. They'll be as deceptive as the 3.9 million figure. They're false unless proved otherwise.

On January 18, Forbes headlined "Coverage Expansion Fails: Less Than One-Third of Obamacare Exchange Enrollees Were Previously Uninsured," saying:

"(N)ew data suggests that Obamacare" fell short of its goal. "Instead of expanding coverage to those without it, Obamacare is" is mostly enrolling individuals with coverage.

"Surveys from insurers and other industry players indicate that" from 65 - 89% of enrollees were previously insured.

A McKinsey & Co. report says "only 11 percent of consumers who bought new coverage under the law were previously uninsured."

Over half of non-enrollees cited affordability. Another 30% indicated "technical challenges in buying the plans."

HealthMarkets is a Texas-based insurance holding company. It conducted its own survey. It found only 35% of enrollees were previously uninsured.

A Priority Health insurer survey found only one-fourth of enrollees without previous coverage.

Michigan health insurers expected about 400,000 sign-ups by yearend. They got less than 76,000. Most hadn't paid their first premium.

A Minnesota-based insurer doesn't know "if we're growing the number of people" seeking coverage. "We're just adding complexity," it believes. According to Forbes:

"If we assume that around one-third of exchange enrollees were previously uninsured, and that 90 percent of those who have 'selected a marketplace plan' will eventually enroll in coverage, the Obamacare exchanges have thus far only expanded coverage to 660,000 people, far less than the 7 million projected by the Congressional Budget Office."

A separate analysis contradicts administration enrollment claims. "Sean Trende of RealClearPolitics (estimates) that only 5 - 7.5% of (new) enrollees were due to Obamacare."

He examined new Medicaid enrollments in states expanding their rolls under Obamacare. He compared them to others that haven't.

Of about 1.7 million people in November "determined eligible for Medicaid and CHIP by state agencies" under Obamacare, 55% were in states not expanding Medicaid coverage.

In other words, most new enrollees were previously Medicaid eligible.

Trende learned people are enrolling and leaving Medicaid all the time. Aside from normal enrollment trends, "we have an actual estimate for Medicaid enrollment due directly to the ACA's expansion of Medicaid (by) 190,000," said Trende.

CGI Federal was hired to fix back-end Healthcare.gov problems. In mid-December, it wasn't found up to the task.

Accenture replaced it. Limited time remains to complete the task. According to a government document:

"If this functionality is not complete by mid-March 2014, the government could make erroneous payments to providers and insurers."

At risk is "financial harm to the government." Healthcare providers could be jeopardized.

"Additionally, without a Financial Management platform that accounts for enrollments and associated program costs that integrates with the existing CMS Accounting platform, the entire healthcare reform program is jeopardized."

Failure to meet the mid-March deadline may cause "inaccurate issuance of payments to health plans which could seriously put them at financial risk; potentially leading to their default and disrupting continued services and coverage to consumers."