OPEC Oil Production Falls In December

Total OPEC crude only production was up by 42,400 barrels per day in December. However, that was after November production was revised downward by 75,000 bpd. So, OPEC production was actually down 33,000 bpd from what was reported last month.

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I have posted OPEC production according to “secondary sources” as well as OPEC production based on “direct communication” in order to show what Venezuela said they were producing when called by the editors of the MOMR. More about that below Venezuela’s production chart.

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Algeria was up 30,000 bpd in December, but the downward trend continues.

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Angola’s crude oil production is holding steady.

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Ecuador’s latest peak was in 2015 and they have been in slow decline since then.

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Production out of Equatorial Guinea is in slow decline though it is too low to make much difference in overall OPEC production.

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Gabon is also in slow decline.

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Iran is producing flat out and perhaps because of their recent sanctions they feel no need to comply with any OPEC cuts in production.

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Iraqi crude oil production is holding steady at near their all-time high.

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Kuwaiti crude oil has held remarkably steady for one year now.

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Libyan crude production has held steady for six months. They still have serious political problems.

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Nigerian crude production increased by 75,700 barrels per day in December.

Saudi Arabian crude production was down 11,000 bpd in December but that was after November production was revised down by 67,000 bpd.

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UAE crude production was down only slightly in December.

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The collapse of Venezuelan crude production is obviously increasing. Their production, according to “secondary sources” dropped over 82,000 barrels per day in December. But according to “direct communication” their production was down far more. When called by the OPEC MOMR they said their production was down a whopping 216,000 bpd to 1,621,000 barrels per day. However:…

CARACAS (Reuters) – Venezuela’s oil production has increased to near 1.9 million barrels per day (bpd) after hitting a historic low last year, according to Manuel Quevedo, oil minister and head of state oil firm PDVSA [PDVSA.UL], who vowed 2018 will see output rise to more than 2.4 million bpd.

And if you believe that, then I have a bridge I would like to sell you.

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World oil supply here is total liquids and based on “direct communication” which I think is unreliable. However, it is the best we have at the moment.

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The above zero-based chart gives us a better view of what OPEC crude only production has done since 2005. Since then their total production has been up 1,241,000 barrels per day. That is just under 4 percent or, on a yearly average, that is one-third of one percent per year. Related: Will The Dollar Survive The Petro-Yuan?

The lion’s share of the increase in oil production since 2005 has come from Non-OPEC countries, primarily the USA and Russia.

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The data for this chart and the one below is from the EIA and is through September 2017.

Non-OPEC less Russia and the USA, yearly average, is down 1,142,000 barrels per day or .35 percent per year since 2005. World oil production, less Russia and the USA, has been almost flat since 2005, up less than 100,000 barrels per day.

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Here is where almost all the crude oil production gain comes from, Russia and the USA. Russia+USA annual average production is up 5,495,000 barrels per day since 2005. That is 38.62 percent or 3.22 percent per year.