But how can you have a low volatility and a bitcoin price going up to 5000 usd within this year as more than 50% of bitcoiners believe when asked at the beginning of the year? or can we have a linear growth without huge ups and downs?

But how can you have a low volatility and a bitcoin price going up to 5000 usd within this year as more than 50% of bitcoiners believe when asked at the beginning of the year? or can we have a linear growth without huge ups and downs?

Rising to 5000 USD is possible but the chance is quite small. If you check the historical data you can immediately see. There are only about 40 days left, and the maximum rise within 40 days was in 2011. Rising to 5000 means about 2.5 log return in the next 40 days. As you can see, it's quite difficult to reach that level again.