Chart 1: Central Tendencies and Ranges of Economic Projections

Central tendencies and ranges of economic projections for years 2007 through 2010. Actual data for years 2002 through 2006. See notes to Table 1 for variable definitions.

Real GDP Growth Percent

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

Actual

1.9

3.7

3.1

2.9

2.6

-

-

-

-

Upper End of Range

-

-

-

-

-

2.7

2.6

2.8

2.7

Upper End of Central Tendency

-

-

-

-

-

2.5

2.5

2.7

2.6

Lower End of Central Tendency

-

-

-

-

-

2.4

1.8

2.3

2.5

Lower End of Range

-

-

-

-

-

2.2

1.6

2.0

2.2

Unemployment RatePercent

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

Actual

5.9

5.8

5.4

5.0

4.5

-

-

-

-

Upper End of Range

-

-

-

-

-

4.8

5.0

5.0

5.0

Upper End of Central Tendency

-

-

-

-

-

4.8

4.9

4.9

4.9

Lower End of Central Tendency

-

-

-

-

-

4.7

4.8

4.8

4.7

Lower End of Range

-

-

-

-

-

4.7

4.6

4.6

4.6

PCE InflationPercent

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

Actual

1.8

1.9

3.1

3.2

1.9

-

-

-

-

Upper End of Range

-

-

-

-

-

3.2

2.3

2.2

2.0

Upper End of Central Tendency

-

-

-

-

-

3.0

2.1

2.0

1.9

Lower End of Central Tendency

-

-

-

-

-

2.9

1.8

1.7

1.6

Lower End of Range

-

-

-

-

-

2.7

1.7

1.5

1.5

Core PCE InflationPercent

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

Actual

1.6

1.4

2.2

2.2

2.3

-

-

-

-

Upper End of Range

-

-

-

-

-

2.1

2.0

2.0

2.0

Upper End of Central Tendency

-

-

-

-

-

1.9

1.9

1.9

1.9

Lower End of Central Tendency

-

-

-

-

-

1.8

1.7

1.7

1.6

Lower End of Range

-

-

-

-

-

1.8

1.7

1.5

1.5

Chart 2(a): Distribution of Participants' Projections (percent)

Histograms, eight panels. See notes to Table 1 for variable definitions. Those participants' June projections that were provided in quarter points have been rounded to the nearest tenth for the construction of these histograms.

Real GDP ProjectionsNumber of Participants

Projections

1.6-1.7

1.8-1.9

2.0-2.1

2.2-2.3

2.4-2.5

2.6-2.7

2.8-2.9

3.0-3.1

2007

October

0

0

0

3

13

1

0

0

June

0

0

3

9

4

1

0

0

2008

October

3

1

3

4

4

2

0

0

June

0

0

0

0

7

5

3

2

2009

October

0

0

1

3

8

4

1

0

2010

October

0

0

0

2

9

6

0

0

Unemployment Rate ProjectionsNumber of Participants

Projections

4.4-4.5

4.6-4.7

4.8-4.9

5.0-5.1

5.2-5.3

2007

October

0

8

9

0

0

June

0

15

2

0

0

2008

October

0

1

13

3

0

June

1

7

8

1

0

2009

October

0

2

12

3

0

2010

October

0

4

10

3

0

Chart 2(b): Distribution of Participants' Projections (percent)

Histograms, eight panels. See notes to Table 1 for variable definitions. Those participants' June projections that were provided in quarter points have been rounded to the nearest tenth for the construction of these histograms.