Sunday, August 23, 2009

AFL Power List: Round 21 (or just when you thought things would go as planned)

Well that threw everything up in the air.

The Bulldogs beat Geelong to ruin Adelaide’s and Carlton’s chances of finishing 4th. The Roos beat the Saints to give everyone in the top 8 hope.

The Saints loss to the lowly, pathetic North has caused me to drop them to second on the Power List; the Pies’ emphatic win over the Swans, vaults them into first spot. Geelong’s loss has seen them tumble down to 5th (and I have to say I probably should have put the Blues ahead of them as well). They look fragile, and when you consider the Crows should have beaten them a Kadinia Park in Round 18, they are a side sorely lacking in form.

Port blew a massive lead to make sure it won’t play in the finals, but the Bomber’s loss to Fremantle means 8th spot comes down to whoever wins out of the Hawks and Bombers – a great scenario for the AFL, that should mean a massive crowd next Saturday at the MCG.

Collingwood and the Bulldogs meet to see who finishes 3rd, though the Bulldogs will need to win by about 20-30 points (depending on the total score), to edge ahead on percentage). By my calculations, if the Bulldogs win 100-80, Collingwood will finish 3rd; if they win 100-75, the Bulldogs will finish 3rd. So if the Bulldogs are up in the last quarter expect a live ladder replace the actual match scoreboard.

Adelaide and Carlton will play to see who (most likely) finishes 5th and 7th. Assuming the Lions beat Sydney, 5th will play at home to Essendon; 7th will play Brisbane at the Gabba. If the Lions lose to Sydney, then it will finish 7th, and both Carlton and Adelaide will have a home final regardless. Theoretically as well if either Adelaide or Carlton win by heaps, and the Bulldogs lose by a hep, then the Bulldogs could drop to fifth. Unlike, but it just shows how tight thing can get.

The crucial aspect of finishing 5th is it means you avoid playing the Saints till the Grand Final (assuming they win the preliminary final). Though that possibly doesn't mean as much as it did two weeks ago.

Rank

LW

Team

Record

Comment

Safe

1

3↑

Collingwood

15-6

The Pies look the goods, and are the form team at the moment.

2

1↓

St Kilda

19-2

How quickly it can all go south, even when playing North.

3

5↑

Bulldogs

14-7

The Bulldogs let the Cats back in the game, but showed grit to hold on for the win. Can still finish third.

4

4↔

Adelaide

13-8

The Crows put the Eagles to the sword, now for the Blues to see which team will still have a chance in the finals.

5

2↓

Geelong

17-4

No team in the top 8 would fear Geelong at the moment.

6

6↔

Carlton

13-8

The Blues beat a Melbourne team that wasn’t all that interested in winning

7

7↔

Brisbane

12-1-8

The Lions had no right to win; and still need to beat Sydney at the SCG to keep a home final.

Need

a

win

8

9↑

Hawthorn

9-12

The Hawks beat the Tigers, and were given a huge life-line by the Bombers' inept work in Perth.

9

8↓

Essendon

9-1-11

All they had to do was beat Fremantle. Not good enough, and will be lucky to make the finals.

No

chance

10

10↔

Port Adelaide

9-12

Port shows that it is capable of doing the impossible… though not quite the way they wanted it.

11

11↔

Sydney

8-13

The Swans stayed with the Pies for 2 quarters, but then the lack of class showed out.

12

13↑

North Melbourne

6-1-14

The Roos upset of the Saints gave seven other teams a great feeling.

13

14↑

West Coast

6-15

An excellent win for Freo – gives them some hope for next year.

14

12↓

Fremantle

7-14

The Eagles only lacked skill, fitness and a game plan against the Crows.

15

14↓

Richmond

5-1-15

The Tigers were no good; so at least they’re gaining some degree of consistency.