Monday, August 25, 2008

The Mullahs and their tame semi unattached self described 'moderate realists' in the Foreign Policy jungle have an interesting bit up at Iranian Diplomacy that heralds the notion of a League of Hot! Autocrazies. Hassan Beheshtipour explains

"The simplest answer is to say Medvedev will follow in Putin’s footsteps.So we can’t expect major shifts in Russia’s foreign policy in the next fouryears. Consequently, Russia’s policy towards Iran won’t change significantly.

But if we know about Russia’s historical background, in no period two leaders have co-directed the country. So either Medvedev must be totally under Putin’s control in the next four years, or he must gradually take control of things.

In either case, Russia has to undergo changes in its foreign policy due toglobal developments. Definitely a part of these development concern Iran. If we accept this view, we must prepare ourselves for change.

Russian 'tude towards Persia

"Since USSR’s dissolution, three approaches towards Moscow-Tehran ties have emerged. The first approach was taken by the pro-West camp that was active in the highest administrative levels during Yeltsin’s presidency.

They looked negatively at closer relations with Iran, believing that thesemay put Russia’s relations with U.S. and Europe into trouble.

Second are veteran communists that advocate friendlier ties with Iran, since it increases Russia’s maneuver capacity against West. This group seeks formation of an anti-American front.

Third are Russians nationalists of Russia, including the radical wing ofLiberal Democrat Party and moderate allies of the ruling United Russia Party. The resultant of these two nationalist groups is cautious approach towards Iran.

Besides taking these three Russian mindsets into account, we must know how Iranians view relations with Russia."

Persian 'tude towards the Bear

"The first approach argues that Russia is unreliable, and we shouldn’tcount on this country in confrontation with the United States.

Advocators of the second approach believe that despite all its weaknesses, Russia is a good support for Iran against West. Since West seeks regime change in Iran, we can’t hope for resolution of problems between Iran and United States.

So as long as Iran wants to follow an independent line against West, itmust use Russia and China as levers. But it seems that by overplaying Russia’s role as a second-degree global power, advocators of this approach seek to justify Iran’s uncompromising face-off with West.

The third approach which is more pragmatistic, tries to view Russia as it really is, and redefine bilateral ties based on Iran and Russia’s national interests in the region and the world.

Conclusion?

"The conditions are now prepared for making changes in Iran-Russiarelations. Therefore, we must allow for the following issues in future ofbilateral ties:

Russia is not enough for Iran. Until Georgia, any attempt to expand tieswith Russia must take relations with West into consideration.

Invading Georgia has significantly changed things Russia is now readyto get closer to China, Iran and India.

wHoA!

h0t!

~hEy Y"all! DoN"t MiSs GsGf~!

Guaranteed to magically transform subscribers into superior intellectuals, worldly, pious, witty, cool, fun to be with, irresistable, au courant and all together with it. Amaze friends, confound enemies and revel in the envy and righteous respect of peers.