The preliminary estimated resident population of Australia at December 2001, was 19,603,500 persons. The population increased by 242,900 persons (1.3%) since December 2000.

The December Quarter 2001 issue of Australian Demographic Statistics(cat. no. 3101.0), issued on 6 June 2002, contains preliminary estimates of the resident populations of Australia and the states and territories based on the results of the 2001 Census of Population and Housing. Previously published estimates dating back to 30 September 1996 have been revised to take account of this new information.

Copies of this and other ABS publications in Adobe Acrobat format, spreadsheets and data cubes can now be purchased on-line from the ABS web site. For further information, please see ABS Products Available to Purchase Online on the home page of the ABS web site home page <www.abs.gov.au>.

Population Distribution, Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Australians, 2001 (Cat. No. 4705.0) was released on 26 June 2002. Using the results of the 2001 Census of Population and Housing, thepublication presents the geographic distribution of the Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander population of Australia. Census counts are presented both on the basis of where the Indigenous population usually lives as well as where they were counted on Census night. The publication also includes the estimated resident Indigenous population for Australia andeach State and Territory, and a discussion about the quality of the Census counts of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples.

Population counts are also provided for Australia, states and territories and for areas included in the Australian Indigenous Geographical Classification (AIGC), that is ATSIC regions, Indigenous areas and Indigenous locations. The AIGC is designed to provide a meaningful basis for presenting Indigenous statistics at the local and regional level.

Experimental estimated of Indigenous Australians by State/Territory, Statistical Division, Statistical Subdivision, Statistical Local Areas and Local Government Areas have also been released in electronic form on ABS@, AusStats and the ABS Web Site for purchase. The data are provided in SuperTABLE format and can be found under ABS catalogue number 3238.0.55.001 in Data Cubes.

For further information on the demography of Indigenous Australians please contact Shahildullah on (02) 6252 5129 or m.shahidullah@abs.gov.au

3 FERTILITY FUTURES

An article entitled Fertility Futures appeared in the latest edition of Australian Social Trends (Cat. No. 4102.0). The article explores the possible impact on the population of three very different fertility scenarios. The scenarios demonstrate the extent to which the size and age structure of the population may be affected by different levels of fertility.

Under a very low fertility scenario of 1.3 babies per woman by 2008–9, Australia's population would peak at 23.2 million in 2039 and then decline to 22.9 million by 2051. At the other extreme, a high fertility rate of 2.1 babies per woman would see the population reach 30.1 million by 2051. The article also discusses the more moderate assumption that fertility stabilises at 1.6 babies per woman, which would see the population grow to 25.4 million by 2051.

Under all these scenarios, population ageing will occur, as the impact of past and present trends in fertility continue to be felt throughout the age structure. However, the ageing of the population will be most pronounced under scenarios of continued fertility decline.

New figures based on results of the 2001 Census, show that much of Australia's growth between 1996 and 2001 occurred in outer suburban Local Government Areas (LGAs) of capital cities. Large population increases were recorded in the Sydney LGAs of Baulkham Hills and Camden, while the largest growth within Melbourne occurred in the fringe LGAs of Casey, Hume and Mornington Peninsula. Outer suburban areas in other capital cities also experienced growth, such as Doolandella-Forest Lake in Brisbane, Onkaparinga in Adelaide and Wanneroo in Perth.

Australia's inner city areas, especially in the larger cities, also grew rapidly in the five years to June 2001. The LGA of the City of Sydney recorded Australia's highest average annual growth rate of18%, followed by the LGAs of the City of Perth and the City of Melbourne.

The largest growth outside capital cities occurred on the coast of Australia. The city of Gold Coast in Queensland recorded the largest population increase of all LGAs in Australia between 1991 and 1996, and the second largest increase between 1996 and 2001. Growth also occurred along most of the eastern seaboard and in south-west of Western Australia.

Further information, including 1991 and 1996 estimates for Statistical Local Areas and Local Government Areas, as well as state, territory and national data, is given in the publication Regional Population Growth, Australia and New Zealand, 1991 to 2001(cat. no. 3218.0). Estimated Resident Population (ERP) for all Local Government Areas (LGAs) at 30 June 2001 are also available free of charge on the ABS web site <www.abs.gov.au>.

To coincide with the first release of 2001 Census population data, the June quarter issue of Western Australian Statistical Indicators (cat. no. 1367.5) has a feature article on population measures. The article discusses three types of measures - census counts, estimated resident population and population projections - and explains the methodology used to compile them.

Inexperienced users of population data can find it difficult to decide which measure of population is the most appropriate to use for their purpose.Aside from the differences in the methodology used and the concepts each measure is representing, not all measures are available for any one year. Census counts are only available every five years, estimated resident population figures are available every quarter in a year to the present, and population projections provide figures for points of time in the future (normally published on a yearly basis). The article explains what is being measured by each type of measure and the relationshipsbetween them.

Measuring Australia's Progress (MAP) (cat. no. 1370.0) is a new publication that was launched by the Australian Statistician, Dennis Trewin, on 4 April, 2002. It aims to help Australians form their own views about Australia's "progress" during the last decade by providing factual data across a set of 15 key indicators. These indicators have been put together by the ABS after consultation with a wide range of experts, organisations and individuals. They can be broadly summarised into four categories: human capital, natural capital, produced and financial capital, and social capital.

MAP does not consider every aspect of progress that is important, nor does it consider how progress affects every group of Australians or every part of Australia. However, it does provide a national summary of many of the most important areas to be considered when assessing progress.

The Australian population influences and is in turn influenced by progress. Although population is not a measure of progress, an understanding of demographic changes provides key background information and a commentary relating to population is included in MAP. The commentary describes some of the links between many areas of progress and population and sets out some of the arguments for and against population growth. MAP also discusses the changing age and sex distribution of the Australian population and how this affects progress.

For more information or any comments on the publication please contact Jon Hall on (02) 6252-7221 or jon.hall@abs.gov.au

7 AUSTRALIAN SOCIAL TRENDS, 2002

Australian Social Trends 2002 (Cat. No. 4102.0) was released in June and continues the series into its ninth year. It maintains a high quality of presentation, description and analysis of data, and covers a wide range of topical issues. Each short, self-contained article has easy to read text, tables and graphs and provides links to related articles in earlier editions. Australian Social Trends makes it possible for all Australians to gain a better understanding of our changing society.

Australian Social Trends 2002 covers seven major areas of social concern: Population, Family, Health, Education, Work, Income and Expenditure, and Housing. Articles covering new areas of interest include Regional population ageing, Fertility futures, Trends in childlessness, Organ donation, Households in financial stress, and Home renovations. Several topics of ongoing interest have been revisited, including Literacy, Education of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples, Employment arrangements, Voluntary work and Superannuation.A set of summary data tables is included for each major area covered, providing status indicators for states and territories and ten-year national trend indicators. A series of international data tables for Population, Health, Education and Work allow comparison between Australia and 17 other countries.

The content of each edition of Australian Social Trends is available on the ABS web site and can be accessed through the Australia Now link.

Associated with the introduction of new passenger card processing arrangements from August 2000, there have been major delays in the provision of final overseas arrivals and departure (OAD) data by the Department of Immigration and Multicultural and Indigenous Affairs (DIMIA). Because of the use of overseas arrivals and departures data in population estimates which affects state and territory Government funding, DIMIA has given priority to processing passenger cards for July 2001 and subsequent months before finalising processing of earlier months - August 2000 through to June 2001.

ABS has received and published data for July 2001 to March 2002. Data for the September quarter 2000 was be released on 8 August 2002; data for the June quarter 2002 is scheduled for release on 15 August 2002. Further release dates will be advertised when known on the Demography Theme page on this site, and in future issues of Overseas Arrivals and Departures, Australia (Cat. No.3401.0).

The ABS is considering a number of options for the ongoing release of preliminary and final OAD data. These are outlined in the working paper 2002/1 'Overseas Arrivals and Departures Statistics Dissemination Plan' available on the Demography Theme page on the ABS web site <www.abs.gov.au>. Comments on the options contained in the working paper should be directed to Catherine Owen, email catherine.owen@abs.gov.auor telephone (02) 6252 5640 by 15 August 2002.

Because of the delays, Migration, Australia 2000-01 (Cat. No. 3412.0) has been withdrawn from publication. It is proposed to include 2000-01 data in appropriate supplementary tables in the 2001-02 issue of this publication.

9 UNDERSTANDING DEMOGRAPHIC DATA COURSES IN MELBOURNE AND SYDNEY

The aim of the one day Understanding Demographic Data course is to provide an understanding of the framework of demographic data and the processes which shape the population. The course covers the relationship between Census data and Estimated Resident Population data; components of population growth; population projections; estimating the population of small areas; some tools for analysing demographic data and population dynamics. The course costs $342 per participant including a light lunch, course notes and a copy of Australian Demographic Statistics(Cat. No. 3101.0).

The next courses are scheduled for Melbourne and Sydney. To register or obtain more information, please contact:

The 11th biennial conference of the Australian Population Association (APA) will be held at the University of New South Wales in Sydney from 2-4 October 2002. For more information go to the APA web site http://www.gisca.adelaide.edu.au/apa.

11 WHAT THE ABS DEMOGRAPHY PROGRAM PRODUCES

The demography component produces estimates of the population by age, sex, country of birth, Indigenous status, registered marital status, geographical distribution and estimates of families and households. Projections of the population, families and households, according to specified demographic assumptions, are published on a regular basis and produced for individual clients. Statistics are also regularly produced on births, deaths, marriages, divorces, overseas arrivals and departures and internal migration. For the ABS and other population surveys, benchmarks to facilitate estimation are provided. In addition to reporting on statistics, courses are conducted and an email newsletter is sent to major clients.

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