Scott Walker’s stealth 2016 strategy

In another possible building block for a national campaign, Walker will publish a book this fall with the help of former President George W. Bush’s speechwriter Marc Thiessen. The publisher advertises the book — titled “Unintimidated: A Governor’s Story and a Nation’s Challenge” — as “a call to action.”

And Walker is traveling to key presidential early voting states. Over the past year, he’s made stops in early states from Iowa and New Hampshire to Nevada. He heads to Alabama for a GOP dinner on Friday, South Carolina for a fundraiser to help Gov. Nikki Haley next Monday and Michigan next month for the Mackinac Republican Leadership Conference. Many of these trips are at the request of politicians and donors who helped him during the recall.

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Democrats plan to use Walker’s national activities against him next year, arguing that he cares more about pleasing 2016 primary voters than improving the lot of Wisconsinites. State Democratic Party Chairman Mike Tate made fun of Walker for referring repeatedly to the seven years he spent growing up in Iowa during a May speech the governor gave in West Des Moines.

“The overarching narrative is that this is a guy who is out for himself,” Tate said at party headquarters. “Who are you working for? That’s a legitimate question Scott Walker will have a hard time answering.”

The conservative base would walk on coals for Walker, but there are not enough Republicans to win statewide in Wisconsin. He will need a healthy margin among independents, and jobs are their top concern by far.

Walker’s biggest promise when he ran in 2010 was to create 250,000 jobs in his first term. Only 81,000 had materialized as of last month.

The economy is “the one area the polling shows Walker vulnerable on,” said Charles Franklin, director of the Marquette Law School Poll.

Republicans say the upward trajectory of the state’s economy works in Walker’s favor. He plans to tout a “manufacturing comeback” and will talk nonstop about getting the state’s affairs in order.

“The bottom line is the reforms are working,” said Republican Governors Association executive director Phil Cox. “There’s a renaissance in Wisconsin, and it’s because of Gov. Walker’s reforms.”

Mary Burke, who confirmed in an email that she is “seriously considering” a challenge to Walker, would likely run as a job creator while blasting Walker as a career politician. But she is untested and has not carved out positions on a host of issues. She was never on the ballot before last November — and even that was in the state’s most liberal enclave.

Republicans plan to link Burke with former Gov. Jim Doyle, Walker’s still-unpopular predecessor whom she served as commerce secretary.

But Democratic operatives say Burke could execute a “war on women” attack more effectively than Walker’s male opponent did in 2010 and 2012. In July, Walker signed a law requiring ultrasounds before women can get an abortion and banned doctors from performing them unless they have admitting privileges at a nearby hospital. And in 2012, he barred abortion coverage through health insurance exchanges and removed a requirement that sex-education teachers instruct students on birth control options.

The million-dollar question, literally, is how much of her fortune Burke would sink into the race.

“If she walks in and plops down $10-to-$15 million of her own money, that’s going to be a pretty big game changer,” said Graul, the Republican consultant.

It is clear now that Democrats misfired with the recall, inadvertently strengthening Walker and catapulting him to the top tier of 2016 contenders. If not for the recall, Walker might now be grouped with vulnerable blue-state governors up in 2014 like Pennsylvania’s Tom Corbett or Florida’s Rick Scott. Unions would be itching to unseat him.

Instead, Walker’s successful push to limit collective bargaining has wreaked havoc on the Democratic Party infrastructure. One element of the controversial law made paying union dues optional for state employees. The teachers union has lost about a third of its members and cut an even bigger share of its staff.

The state Democratic Party traditionally received its lifeblood from labor groups and is adjusting to a world of individual contributions.

“It’s a huge challenge,” said Tate, who predicts liberals will be outspent by conservatives in 2014 but expressed confidence they will raise enough to be competitive.

In certain Democratic quarters there’s a palpable sense of fatigue and weariness — bordering on resignation — about taking down Walker. But a core base of activists remains determined. A small group of protesters still gathers ritualistically in the rotunda of the state capitol almost every day at noon to repeat the same songs they’ve been singing since the spring of 2011, back when tens of thousands of activists descended on Madison.

By his count, 55-year-old Irving Smith, who fixes windows for a living, has attended 515 of these sing-alongs. He’s been arrested 10 times and received 40 tickets.

“I think he’s toast,” Smith said of Walker, as he was arrested yet again.