A Playoff Chase Full of Falls, Rises and Surprises

When the N.F.L. began rejiggering its schedule to push more division games into the final weeks of the season, it hoped to conjure days like Sunday, when the entire season seemed to tilt within the space of a few hours. What the N.F.L. could not have imagined was that on the most compelling day of the 2012 season, when six games paired winning teams — the latest on the calendar that has ever happened — it was the nondivision games that provided the most intrigue, even in their noncompetitiveness, and cast the most shadow onto a murky playoff picture.

While the Houston Texans and the Green Bay Packers clinched their divisions with victories over their closest division competition — five of eight divisions have now been locked up — the N.F.C. East and the A.F.C. North were roiled Sunday, with the favorites fading to jeopardize their postseason hopes.

One thing is certain: if the N.F.L. is looking for an example in favor of an expanded playoff field, the N.F.C. could provide it this season. It finished Sunday with nine teams above .500.

¶ When the Dallas Cowboys beat the Pittsburgh Steelers, 27-24, in overtime — they scored the game’s final 10 points — the Cowboys were propelled into a three-way tie for first place in the N.F.C. East, though if the Cowboys win out, they are the division champions. The Steelers (7-7) have lost four of their last five and have fallen behind the Cincinnati Bengals for the A.F.C.’s second wild-card spot. That has kept the door cracked open for the Jets, who are 6-7 and play Monday night in Tennessee. But more realistically, the second wild-card spot — the Indianapolis Colts, despite their loss to the Houston Texans, are all but certain to get the first one — could be decided next week, when the Steelers, who have lost two straight after an improbable victory against the Ravens in Baltimore, host the Cincinnati Bengals.

¶ The Washington Redskins — with two rookie quarterbacks — took the mathematical lead in the N.F.C. East with a victory over the Cleveland Browns, with the backup quarterback Kirk Cousins starting in place of Robert Griffin III. Remember when the Redskins were mocked for picking Cousins in the fourth round after giving up the farm to draft Griffin? Cousins has already engineered two victories — including the rally over the Ravens in overtime last week — and he gives the Redskins a safety net that Rex Grossman would never have provided while Griffin, with his highly vulnerable playing style, recovers from a knee injury.

The Redskins have won five in a row since Coach Mike Shanahan sounded as if he were giving up on the season Nov. 4, and because they hold the tiebreakers, they are in first place, even though their 8-6 record is identical to the Giants’ and the Cowboys’. The best possible news for the Redskins: they could get Griffin back this week, and they play the reeling Philadelphia Eagles next Sunday. Even better for the Redskins: the Giants were blown out by the Falcons at Atlanta in one of the most confounding results of the season.

“All we can do now is practice harder and win the next one,” the Giants’ Jason Pierre-Paul wrote on his Twitter feed after the game.

That might not be enough for the Giants. At 8-6, they now have the same record as the Minnesota Vikings (who have won two in a row) and the fading Chicago Bears (who have gone 1-5 after starting 7-1).

Photo

The Cowboys’ DeMarco Murray was upended short of the end zone by the Steelers’ Ziggy Hood. Dallas defeated Pittsburgh in overtime, 27-24.Credit
Tom Pennington/Getty Images

The Giants have the Ravens and the Eagles left. If they win out, they will have a playoff spot. If not, they open the door for a loaded N.F.C. field.

¶ The most dangerous team right now may be the Seattle Seahawks, who have scored 50 points two weeks in a row, and have won five of their last six to move to 9-5. The Seahawks are still a defensive juggernaut; they entered the weekend second in the league in points allowed. But quarterback Russell Wilson’s rapid development has allowed them to open the playbook (he was responsible for four touchdowns, including three on runs). The N.F.C. West could be decided next week, when the Seahawks host the 49ers.

“Host” is the key word: the Seahawks are undefeated at home, but have beaten just one winning team on the road.

Seahawks Coach Pete Carroll admitted that until a few weeks ago the Seahawks were playing offense with the mind-set of trying not to lose the game. They are well past that phase now.

“You can see now we’re really playing offense with Russell,” Carroll said. “Whatever we’re calling we know something good can happen.”

¶The Ravens had not lost three games in a row since 2009, but on Sunday, one play encapsulated how they have gone from 9-2 and vying for a first-round bye to 9-5 and backing into at least a wild-card spot (when the Steelers lost). With the Denver Broncos leading, 10-0, but the Ravens driving for a touchdown in the waning moments of the first half, quarterback Joe Flacco hurried to call a play on first-and-goal from the Broncos’ 4. There was no need to rush — there were still 30 seconds left, and the Ravens had all three timeouts remaining — but Flacco called for an out to the left, intended for Anquan Boldin. He underthrew it, and Chris Harris intercepted it at the 2 and returned it for a touchdown. Flacco gave impressive chase, but Harris returned the interception for a touchdown, leaving Flacco face down on the turf in disgust.

The Ravens had no chance of recovering after that, losing, 34-17, and the foibles of an offense that was supposed to become the identity of the team are now threatening to drag the season down. Last week, after they lost in the overtime to the Redskins, Coach John Harbaugh fired offensive coordinator Cam Cameron and installed Jim Caldwell. Do not let the final score Sunday fool you about how that went. The Ravens scored 14 points in the fourth quarter, after falling behind 31-3. Ravens safety Ed Reed, who threw his helmet in frustration after Peyton Manning completed a 51-yard touchdown pass to Eric Decker, called the loss “embarrassing” and “terrible.”

“I wouldn’t say spiraling out of control,” Reed said. “But it’s been bad these last three weeks.”

It has been great for the Broncos for more than two months. They have not lost since Oct. 7 in New England, where they may have to return during the playoffs. In an unfortunate bit of scheduling, Denver lost to the Patriots and the Texans in the first six weeks of the season, when Peyton Manning was still getting into his rhythm. Those losses make it unlikely the Broncos could overtake either team for home-field advantage, even though the Broncos close with home games against the Browns and the Kansas City Chiefs. But the Broncos may be one of the most balanced teams in the playoff picture. They are second in scoring, and fourth in fewest points allowed.

With all of Sunday’s scrambling, a potential re-engagement between the Patriots and Manning may be the closest to a sure thing the N.F.L. can offer with only two weeks left in a season without a dominant team.

A version of this article appears in print on December 17, 2012, on page D3 of the New York edition with the headline: A Playoff Chase Full of Falls, Rises and Surprises. Order Reprints|Today's Paper|Subscribe