Breaking down John Kasich’s polling – & 4 other things that will measure his 2016 success

John Kasich is seeking to stick with other experienced contenders in the race for the GOP nomination for president. Here Kasich, left, meets donor George Argyros, ex-ambassador to Spain, at a luncheon of well-heeled Republicans in Irvine, California.(Photo: AP)

The evening Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker abandoned his bid for president, John Kasich’s campaign sent this message to supporters:

“Our country needs a common-sense conservative in the White House,” national campaign strategist John Weaver wrote. “Gov. John Kasich is the only Midwestern governor in the race who can bring our values to Washington, D.C.” And a few lines later, the red button: “DONATE NOW.”

Presidential campaigns like Kasich’s have until Wednesday to load their coffers with enough money to display their strength ahead of the third-quarter federal fundraising deadline. For Kasich, the financial report – his first as a declared candidate – offers an opportunity to show he belongs in the tier of experienced politicians with staying power.

After Kasich launched his campaign July 21, he got glowing reviews of his first debate performance and, boosted by sunny ads from allies, climbed to as high as second place in polling in early-primary New Hampshire. After a quiet CNN debate performance, his Granite State polling has settled into a solid second tier – joining Marco Rubio and Jeb Bush in the leading group of established politicians hoping the Donald Trump-Carly Fiorina-Ben Carson fever peters out.

Kasich’s polling nationally, meanwhile, has gradually inched up, giving him a chance to move a couple of spots from the edge of the debate stage, in Rubio and Bush territory.

His polling still isn’t great, but he’s in good company.

Among New Hampshire’s first-in-the-nation primary voters, Kasich is now tied for fifth. The latest poll from the University of New Hampshire, conducted after the CNN debate, put Trump and Fiorina first and second, with 26 and 16 percent. Then comes a cluster of Rubio (9 percent), Carson (8 percent), Bush (7 percent) and Kasich (7 percent).

Should Kasich be concerned about his fall from second place?

“Only if it dries up his ability to raise funds,” said Andrew Smith, director of the University of New Hampshire Survey Center. “Voters right now aren’t deciding who they’re going to vote for for president. They’re telling pollsters who they like or who they would vote for if the election was today. As the election draws closer, the fact that they’re voting for the next president is going to be more in the forefront of their minds.”

For now, Kasich must stay competitive with Rubio and Bush, “the top ‘traditional’ candidates,” Smith said. Then, if voters decide to give established politicians a serious look, he’ll get his chance.

He’s still all-in on New Hampshire ...

Among the top 10 Republican candidates, Kasich’s 14 visits to New Hampshire rank second only to New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie’s 20 trips to the Granite State, according to the National Journal’s travel tracker.

“A strong finish in New Hampshire could make him a preeminent establishment choice, especially if he finishes ahead of Bush,” the forecasting team at the prominent Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball newsletter wrote last week of Kasich. “Beating Bush could potentially encourage many insiders to reconsider their support for Bush and shift over to Kasich.”

The political action committees supporting Kasich will have spent $5.4 million through Oct. 12 to run commercials on the increasingly crowded New Hampshire airwaves. Their latest features – what else? – a Kasich helicopter, in a lighthearted play on one of Trump’s signatures.

And when Reince Priebus, chairman of the Republican National Committee, told National Journal he wanted to look at shaking up which states host the nation’s first primaries and caucuses after 2016, Kasich’s campaign fired off a statement that New Hampshire (and Iowa) residents are active and knowledgeable and have earned the responsibility of voting first.

... while building a national presence.

Kasich’s campaign is making noise about a stronger effort in Iowa, whose Republican caucus voters tend to support more conservative candidates. On Wednesday, the governor will make his second visit to the state in less than a week.

A few Kasich answers in the CNN debate may have left the wrong impression with conservatives as he defended two of his more moderate positions. Breaking with many Republican candidates, Kasich advocated for keeping the Iran deal unless Iran breaks it and against shutting down the government over defunding Planned Parenthood – a tactic that will backfire, Kasich says.

“Is John Kasich Republican?” was the No. 5 Kasich-related question asked on Google during the debate. And the No. 2 issue-related Google search for Kasich was “abortion,” as voters sought to gauge his stance on the issue.

A few days later, Kasich emphasized his conservative credentials on Iran and abortion without walking back his positions.

In an interview on CNN’s “State of the Union,” Kasich said he thought U.S. senators should have taken more extreme measures to bring a vote on a resolution that would derail the Iran deal. Senators voted 58-42 this month to bring to the floor a resolution disapproving the deal. Under current Senate rules, they needed 60 votes to advance the resolution; the so-called “nuclear option” Kasich advocated for would have required only 51 votes.

Still, Kasich is sticking with his “adult-in-the-room” shtick. This weekend, he sided with John Boehner over the resigning House speaker’s right-wing foes.

Over the weekend, candidates such as Rubio and Texas Senator Ted Cruz presided over conservatives’ cheering Boehner’s retirement.

But Kasich praised Boehner, citing his own experience in Congress, including helping to balance the federal budget when Boehner chaired the House Republican Conference in the late 1990s.

“A lot of people who are doing the complaining and saying, ‘Why isn’t anything getting done?’ – maybe they ought to look in the mirror. What have they accomplished? I mean, are they just speechmakers? Are they people out there just yelling and screaming?” Kasich told CBS’ “Face the Nation” Sunday. “At the end of the day, I believe the Republican Party will pick someone who is a reformer, who is a change agent, who has accomplished things and has experience. So all these people yelling and screaming, you ask them: ‘What have you accomplished in the time that you’re in public office?’ ”