He has to win this fall’s gubernatorial election first, but Nevada’s Republican governor, Brian Sandoval, could defeat the Senate majority leader Harry Reid when Reid is next up for reelection, in 2016.

If the two were to meet in a hypothetical Senate match-up, Sandoval, who is expected to easily win reelection this fall, has a double-digit lead over Reid, reports Nevada political reporter Jon Ralston. Sandoval leads Reid 53 percent to 43 percent in a Harper Polling survey.

Ralston also notes Sandoval enjoys more than double the support among independent voters that Reid does, winning 65 percent to 28 percent.

But Reid has proven to be resilient against past challengers. In 2010, Reid seemed vulnerable, but eventually defeated Republican candidate Sharron Angle by nearly six percentage points.