Cathie from Canada

"Do not go gentle into that good night.
Blog, blog against the dying of the light"

Sunday, April 12, 2015

I'm thrilled that Hillary is running for President and she's going to win, too!

I think it is wonderful that Hillary Clinton is running again for president -- after her last experience, I had been concerned that she wouldn't try again. She came through Saskatoon a few weeks ago on a speaking tour and the auditorium was packed -- she was warm, intelligent, extremely knowledgeable, gutsy...what's not to like?
At Hullabaloo, Tom Sullivan writes:

The problem for the RNC is that, as with electing the first black president, voters might be eager to see the first woman become president and will want to take part in that historic election. Republican women included, especially given the all-male clown car that is the current Republican field.
No matter what punches conservatives have thrown at her for decades now, Hillary Clinton just will not go down. And that coldness Priebus wants to exploit could work in Clinton's favor. There is a bit of "Iron Lady" Margaret Thatcher to Hillary Clinton that might prove attractive to Republican women already inclined to vote for a women. Like Clinton or not, if there's one thing Republicans fear, respect, and vote for, it's strength.

9 Comments:

My choice would be Elizabeth Warren, hands down. But I doubt she has a chance, regardless of her popularity among Americans who want progressive change. If she contested the nomination, Wall Street would immerse Hillary in money, and the Democrats wouldn't dare run against the big bucks.

I expect she will be very much like Barack Obama: Business very much as usual, but at least there's some symbolic value. I expect her to be every bit as useful to actual women as Obama has been to blacks (which is to say, not at all) and to be pretty much identical to him in domestic policy while a little more warlike in foreign policy (which is to say, very violent indeed and hurting the world a lot).

But, she'll be better than a Republican no doubt, and exactly the same as any other "electable" Democrat.

Actually, as long as she is a democrat, that's the most important thing. That said, I always did believe Hillary had a more realistic view of Washington than Obama did, he believed too much in bipartisanship, and Hillary already knows that is impossible with the existing group of republicans.Hillary reminds me a little of Lyndon Johnson, who had enormous political skills, knew where the bodies were buried in the Senate and succeeded in passing the Voting Rights Act, Medicare, and the Civil Rights Act. I am uncertain about whether she will chose the right group of advisors.

No doubt I'm too cynical. My impression has always been that Obama knows perfectly well that bipartisanship will get nothing done and in fact counts on that to allow him to appear to be trying to get things done without any risk of actually succeeding and pissing off one of his sponsors.

Don't want to rain on anybody's parade but as someone who has travelled fairly extensively in the US, the GOP may seem extreme to most Canadians, but I can assure there is a sizeable chunk of Americans who support their views so don't count them out. I don't want them to win, but wouldn't be surprised if they do. Most Canadians on both the left and right don't seem to realize just how different Canadians and Americans are in their values and beliefs so what's popular in one country isn't in another. The reason Sun News failed and Tim Hudak fell flat on his face in Ontario is they tried to copy what the US right does forgetting we are Canada not the United States and such policies may sell well there, but don't here. Likewise many Progressives falsely assume America is as progressive as Canada when it is not. Gun control and universal health care may have overwhelming support in Canada other than the fringe right wing, but in the US that is not the case so the type of progressive policies that are popular in Canada aren't necessarily in the US. Better to focus on making Canada more progressive for those on the left as Canada unlike the US has a progressive majority where the hill to climb is much easier than in the US.

I cannot see Ted Cruz winning although considering how polarized the country is, I suspect he would still get over 45% (both parties have a floor of 45% and ceiling of 55%). Rand Paul is kooky but he has a strong libertarian streak which many Americans do to and unlike other countries the US is unique in its libertarian heritage and culture.

As for Marco Rubio, he could very well win. I don't like to bring up race, but whether one likes it or not it matters. 55-60% of non-Hispanic whites will vote GOP, they won't get over 15% amongst African-Americans, so Latinos play a key role in determining the outcome. In 2012 Romney only got 27%, but Bush in 2004 got 44% and with Rubio being fluent in Spanish and understanding the Latino community, he could push the GOP above 40% amongst the Latino community which is about what they need to win. Essentially as has been the case in past elections, it will come down to around 6-12 swing states and which way they break. The vast majority of states are solidly in one column or another no matter who wins.