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How to determine the historical region?

Russia have occupied Kaliningrad over 60 Years in real world until now, still foreign Region

China have FULLY occupied Tibet over 60 Years in real world until now,(the vassal relationship have been created since Qing Dynasty) , still foreign Region

America occupied Philippine over 30 Years in real world, still foreign Region. America only put the army to Okinawa, but it is historical Region for America (Although it need to burn burn burn Kagoshima and not meaningful to do so). America also put the army to South Korea but it is not historical region for America.

Mongol occupied China about 90 Years, not historical region; Japan only occupied Manchuria without international admit about 14 Years and then be kicked out, and it is historical region.

Russia have occupied Kaliningrad over 60 Years in real world until now, still foreign Region

China have FULLY occupied Tibet over 60 Years in real world until now,(the vassal relationship have been created since Qing Dynasty) , still foreign Region

America occupied Philippine over 30 Years in real world, still foreign Region. America only put the army to Okinawa, but it is historical Region for America (Although it need to burn burn burn Kagoshima and not meaningful to do so). America also put the army to South Korea but it is not historical region for America.

Mongol occupied China about 90 Years, not historical region; Japan only occupied Manchuria without international admit about 14 Years and then be kicked out, and it is historical region.

So how Leoreth decide the historical region?

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The same situation with European Colonies in the New World and India: some territories are historical and some of them are foreign

My guess? The historical regions offered bribes to a certain developer so that he could make vacances there.

No, just kidding.
Choice of hist.reg.s is influenced by a necessary condition (which you already understand and mention in your post) and a sufficient condition (which I will point out here).

The necessary condition is: Did the real world Nation X for an extended period of time exert influence on the real world region B? If yes, B qualifies as a hist.reg. for X. [As long as B is not the core of Nation Y!]

The sufficient condition is in many cases one of the following in-game reasons:
- Is the UHV achievable only with B as a hist.reg.? (Underpoweredness)
- Or, other way round, is UHV way too easy with B as a hist.reg.? (Is X suddenly OP with B?)
- Is the history simulation (when undisturbed by the human player) usually following historical bounds with(/out) B as a hist. reg.?
- Does the gameplay feel realistic with the hist.reg. constraints?

All of this has to be carefully balanced. Ask yourself why China and the USA have (comparably) tiny core regions compared to their historical extents! It's not just Tibet that China is missing, China is missing Guandong; the southern half of it's historical core(!). Japan is missing something in their historical core, as well.

And of course, advanced countries can offset growth in their non-core regions pretty easy - be they historical or foreign. If the American civ had all US territories as their core... Man, they could almost govern the world.
And Mongolia would never ever collapse with China as a hist.reg.!

The British conquered the world in search of spices and then decided to use none of them. (Celestia, 2018)

If the American civ had all US territories as their core... Man, they could almost govern the world.

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I mean, they actually could in real life.

"I'd recommend using worldbuilder to cheat." -MagisterCultuum
"You're an incompetent jerk with no capacity for self-reflection, and an unbearable burden on any conversation. [...] At this point I mainly feel sorry for the people in your life who have to deal with your condition." -BobCW

The USA is the single most powerful empire in all of human history. It's the only nation that could, if it ended up at (conventional) war with the entire rest of the world at the same time, realistically defend itself indefinitely. The US is arguably as powerful as the rest of the world combined.

"I'd recommend using worldbuilder to cheat." -MagisterCultuum
"You're an incompetent jerk with no capacity for self-reflection, and an unbearable burden on any conversation. [...] At this point I mainly feel sorry for the people in your life who have to deal with your condition." -BobCW

The USA is the single most powerful empire in all of human history. It's the only nation that could, if it ended up at (conventional) war with the entire rest of the world at the same time, realistically defend itself indefinitely. The US is arguably as powerful as the rest of the world combined.

I mean to answer the original question I'm guessing it has a great deal to do with historic territories that were important and to some degree integrated with their imperial masters. Discrepancies can probably be chalked up to:

A: leftovers from RfC
B: Preventing ahistorical settlement and allowing room for certain later-spawning civs to develop. For example, if the Baltic were a Russian territory from the beginning it would mess with both Poland and Germany considering how early Russia spawns. It could result in the Russians settling Kalingrad in the medieval era and its bad enough they can settle St. Petersburg then. Same with Tibet. Tibet did not become a territory of China until very late in its history and an early Chinese settlement of Tibet wouldn't make sense. It's not really an issue because China has the stability modifier to accommodate a conquered Tibet anyway.
C: Historical goals, if a civ requires a conquer or settle goal, Britain, Russia, Japan, etc, those territories need to be in their map and prioritized over others. Where Japan has a conquer China goal, China does not have a conquer Tibet goal.
D: Balance.

I mean to answer the original question I'm guessing it has a great deal to do with historic territories that were important and to some degree integrated with their imperial masters. Discrepancies can probably be chalked up to:

A: leftovers from RfC
B: Preventing ahistorical settlement and allowing room for certain later-spawning civs to develop. For example, if the Baltic were a Russian territory from the beginning it would mess with both Poland and Germany considering how early Russia spawns. It could result in the Russians settling Kalingrad in the medieval era and its bad enough they can settle St. Petersburg then. Same with Tibet. Tibet did not become a territory of China until very late in its history and an early Chinese settlement of Tibet wouldn't make sense. It's not really an issue because China has the stability modifier to accommodate a conquered Tibet anyway.
C: Historical goals, if a civ requires a conquer or settle goal, Britain, Russia, Japan, etc, those territories need to be in their map and prioritized over others. Where Japan has a conquer China goal, China does not have a conquer Tibet goal.
D: Balance.

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For B, it can be use the mechanism that when Country X found some technology (for Russia, should be the technology for build tank??), then the historical region can be increased
For C, Japan occupy Eastern China for 8 Years and this region is essential for Japan to fulfill their mission 2, but it still not historical. Its the same case for Mongol. I think Mongol Core should be decreased while historical region should be increased in order to balance the real history.

For C, Japan occupy Eastern China for 8 Years and this region is essential for Japan to fulfill their mission 2, but it still not historical. Its the same case for Mongol. I think Mongol Core should be decreased while historical region should be increased in order to balance the real history.

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For a lot of civs, every territory that is required for the UHV is not necessarily going to be Historical, as there needs to be some challenge to the goal. Making required territories Foreign helps to facilitate that challenge. Generally, there's a gameplay balance which is dictated roughly by history which helps to determine which locations should be Historical and which should not.

For example, for the US, they have one of the largest cores and an enormous Historical area so that expansion to historical areas (mainland US) is not punished and they can blob up as needed. Areas necessary for the first UHV (the Caribbean islands) are Historical to facilitate the first goal, which should not be punishing stability wise (the same goes for Russia (Russia west of the Urals analogous to the mainland US) and Siberia being analogous to the Caribbeans). These two civs are also meant to be superpowers, so their huge cores help them to expand to Foreign tiles with more flexibility. Those Foreign tiles they do occupy should not be stable, but can be controlled due to the strength of the US/Russian core. See as historical examples the outer fringes of the USSR/Russian Empire (which are Foreign tiles, not Historical) and the Middle East for the USA. While these territories were occupied historically, the occupation was a destabilizing influence for the Russians/USA.

Compare this against Germany and Japan, two civs with conquest goals which historically controlled huge swathes of territory. The difference here is that those two civs did not control their territories for long, and the control of those territories was destabilizing. Germany is required under UHV 2 or 3 (the European conquest goal) to occupy territories which are exclusively Foreign. The areas in Europe which are historical for them are minimal. This is because the expansion is not meant to be easy, and every spot of territory taken destabilizes the German Empire, just as it did historically. The same considerations apply to Japan, who needs to expand to foreign tiles in Eastern China and Southeast Asia. These conquest goals would not be challenging if the expansion targets were Historical (or Contested if overlapping with another civ's core).

Japan gets some wiggle-room with its goal due to Manchuria and Korea being Historical (Korea being Contested) as those territories were held for longer and arguably were less destabilizing to the Japanese Empire. Further, for Japan at least, Manchuria and Korea were occupied in history before the Empire really started becoming unstable, and that is reflected in their characterization in the Stability Maps.

For B, it can be use the mechanism that when Country X found some technology (for Russia, should be the technology for build tank??), then the historical region can be increased

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This mechanic is already implemented where necessary, albeit for Cores. Japan, for example, expands its core from Honshu (Kyoto/Edo/Tokyo) to all of the Japanese home islands (maybe not Hokkaido) when it enters the Industrial Era (I think? Maybe Modern Era?). This is to accommodate the aforementioned conquest goal. It should be challenging but it would be impossible off the two city core. The Mongols have something similar: once they conquer China, their core expands from their initial flip to include Beijing so that they aren't automatically collapsed by controlling the enormously populated Chinese core while they conquer the rest of their 'historical' territories. Of course, Mongolia as a consolidated unit collapsed very quickly so their Stability Map does not dub everything they ever conquered as Historical.

For a lot of civs, every territory that is required for the UHV is not necessarily going to be Historical, as there needs to be some challenge to the goal. Making required territories Foreign helps to facilitate that challenge. Generally, there's a gameplay balance which is dictated roughly by history which helps to determine which locations should be Historical and which should not.
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Thanks, all that was everything I wanted to say except much more eloquent and detailed.