This publication presents monthly information on sales of new motor vehicles in each state/territory in original, seasonally adjusted and trend estimated terms. The original data are sourced from the Federal Chamber of Automotive Industries. Sales data are available for passenger vehicles, other vehicles and total vehicles at the state/territory and national levels.

APRIL 2003 KEY POINTS

Trend

The trend estimate in new motor vehicle sales showed steady growth over the last six months. Total vehicle sales increased by 1.3% in April 2003 (74,147) compared with March 2003 (73,175). Passenger vehicle sales increased by 1.2%, while other vehicle sales increased by 1.5% over the same period.

All states and territories recorded increases in the trend estimate for sales of new motor vehicles in April 2003, except Western Australia which showed no movement. The Northern Territory and Queensland recorded the highest growth with 2.4% and 2.1% respectively.

Seasonally adjusted

Seasonally adjusted estimates increased by 2.3% in April 2003 (74,597) compared with March 2003 (72,907). Seasonally adjusted sales of passenger and other vehicles increased by 1.3% and 4.2% respectively.

NOTES

FORTHCOMING ISSUES

ISSUE

RELEASE DATE

May 2003

19 June 2003

June 2003

17 July 2003

July 2003

20 August 2003

August 2003

17 September 2003

September 2003

17 October 2003

October 2003

19 November 2003

DATA QUALITY

Due to a processing problem with the data supplier for heavy truck sales, other vehicles were understated by 367 units in July 2002. These missing units have been included in the August 2002 sales data for other vehicles. The impact on the original series is as follows: New South Wales (119 units), Victoria (63 units), Queensland (84 units), South Australia (18 units), Western Australia (65 units), Tasmania (14 units) and the Northern Territory (4 units).

TREND REVISIONS

The most recent trend estimates are likely to be revised when new seasonally adjusted estimates become available. For further information see Explanatory Notes 9 and 10.

The graph below presents the effect of two possible scenarios on the previous trend estimates.

1

The May 2003 seasonally adjusted estimate of total vehicle sales is higher than the April 2003 seasonally adjusted estimate by 4.2%.

2

The May 2003 seasonally adjusted estimate of total vehicle sales is lower than the April 2003 seasonally adjusted estimate by 4.2%.

The percentage change of 4.2% was chosen because the average absolute percentage change over the last 8 years has been 4.2%.

The next annual re-estimation of the seasonal factors will be undertaken after data for reference month October 2003 have been released.

SUMMARY - TREND AND SEASONAL ANALYSIS

Table 1: New Motor Vehicle Sales

Passenger vehicles (No.)

Other vehicles (a) (No.)

Total vehicles (No.)

Change Passenger vehicles (%)

Change Other vehicles (%)

Change Total vehicles (%)

Original

2002

February

42,776

22,019

64,795

7.5

17.3

10.7

March

44,828

22,996

67,824

4.8

4.4

4.7

April

42,052

21,834

63,886

-6.2

-5.1

-5.8

May

46,448

26,675

73,123

10.5

22.2

14.5

June

49,101

29,680

78,781

5.7

11.3

7.7

July

45,923

23,859

69,782

-6.5

-19.6

-11.4

August

45,122

24,525

69,647

-1.7

2.8

-0.2

September

43,396

22,638

66,034

-3.8

-7.7

-5.2

October

48,269

24,063

72,332

11.2

6.3

9.5

November

47,229

24,346

71,575

-2.2

1.2

-1.0

December

45,317

22,656

67,973

-4.0

-6.9

-5.0

2003

January

40,015

21,155

61,170

-11.7

-6.6

-10.0

February

43,677

23,058

66,735

9.2

9.0

9.1

March

49,921

26,192

76,113

14.3

13.6

14.1

April

44,602

24,263

68,865

-10.7

-7.4

-9.5

Seasonally Adjusted

2002

February

45,699

23,668

69,367

-6.9

-4.6

-6.1

March

43,408

21,857

65,265

-5.0

-7.7

-5.9

April

45,648

23,651

69,299

5.2

8.2

6.2

May

45,401

24,316

69,717

-0.5

2.8

0.6

June

44,705

23,749

68,454

-1.5

-2.3

-1.8

July

44,390

24,048

68,438

-0.7

1.3

-0.0

August

45,301

25,217

70,518

2.1

4.9

3.0

September

45,947

25,194

71,141

1.4

-0.1

0.9

October

45,791

24,955

70,746

-0.3

-0.9

-0.6

November

45,464

23,406

68,870

-0.7

-6.2

-2.7

December

41,865

20,783

62,648

-7.9

-11.2

-9.0

2003

January

49,584

28,103

77,687

18.4

35.2

24.0

February

46,685

24,775

71,460

-5.8

-11.8

-8.0

March

47,875

25,032

72,907

2.5

1.0

2.0

April

48,507

26,090

74,597

1.3

4.2

2.3

Trend

2002

February

45,873

22,979

68,852

0.2

1.7

0.7

March

45,672

23,291

68,963

-0.4

1.4

0.2

April

45,308

23,555

68,863

-0.8

1.1

-0.1

May

44,990

23,834

68,824

-0.7

1.2

-0.1

June

44,971

24,216

69,187

-0.0

1.6

0.5

July

45,060

24,484

69,544

0.2

1.1

0.5

August

45,126

24,581

69,707

0.1

0.4

0.2

September

45,113

24,454

69,567

-0.0

-0.5

-0.2

October

45,163

24,265

69,428

0.1

-0.8

-0.2

November

45,401

24,200

69,601

0.5

-0.3

0.2

December

45,817

24,312

70,129

0.9

0.5

0.8

2003

January

46,395

24,616

71,011

1.3

1.3

1.3

February

47,073

25,038

72,111

1.5

1.7

1.5

March

47,725

25,450

73,175

1.4

1.6

1.5

April

48,314

25,833

74,147

1.2

1.5

1.3

(a) Other vehicle figures for July 2002 and August 2002 have been affected by reporting problems. See Notes.