U.S. Economy Slow and Steady, According to Decison Analyst's Economic Index

Arlington, Texas—The Decision Analyst U.S. Economic Index registered 108 in March 2016, the same score as February 2016. The U.S. Economic Index in March 2016 is the same as it was a year earlier in March 2015, indicating that 2016 will be another year of snail-paced economic expansion. The Economic Index tends to lead U.S. economic activity by 6 to 12 months. Below is the past-10-year history of the U.S. Economic Index.

“The U.S. Economic Index bounced around over the past year but ended the year at 108, exactly where it started. This sideways movement of the Index over the past 12 months suggests that 2016 will be another year of slow economic activity. In fact, the U.S. seems locked into a pattern of slow economic growth. A number of structural factors are holding the U.S. economy in check: an aging population; a declining share of adults who work; rising debt levels in government and business; over investment in technology, entertainment, and analytics companies where returns are low; rising student debt; economic weakness in Canada, one of our largest trading partners; inadequate bank credit for smaller businesses; and the rising cost of healthcare. Also, the ultra-low interest rates of the Federal Reserve are creating bubbles (technology investments, rural land, stocks and bonds, automobiles, etc.). A U.S. recession in 2016 is a possibility, but the odds continue to favor slow economic growth, based on the Index.”