Cotton rises on strong exports, tight markets

General Comments: Futures were higher again Friday in response to demand ideas based on the strong export paces seen in the USDA reports in recent weeks and on reports of tight domestic and world cash markets. Demand is still said to be strong, and sales for export have held up well given the price strength in recent weeks. The rally is coming at a time when certified stocks are building as well, although the overall certified stocks remain low. The current rally in new crop prices are bringing into question what farmers in Texas and the Delta and Southeast will plant this year. Some producers in the Delta are noting the recent price rally and might decide to plant more Cotton this year. The plantings intentions report will be released at the end of the month.

Overnight News: The Delta and Southeast will see dry conditions until precipitation develops about Thursday. Temperatures will average near to below normal. Texas will get dry weather. Temperatures will average near to below normal. The USDA spot price is now 87.25 ct/lb. ICE said that certified Cotton stocks are now 0.420 million bales, from 0.420 million yesterday.

Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are up with objectives of 93.90 May. Support is at 91.50, 90.70, and 90.00 May, with resistance of 93.90, 94.60, and 95.00 May.

FCOJ

General Comments: Futures closed higher again on ideas of continuing crop losses from Greening Disease. Traders continue to factor in less production potential due to the greening disease and drought. Temperatures are warm in the state, and conditions are dry, and talk about the potential for more fruit drop and poor development of the crop for next year continues. Harvest in Florida of mid and early oranges is almost over, and the Valencia harvest is underway. Bloom has been reported in groves in all production areas of the state. Brazil is seeing near to above normal temperatures and scattered showers. More rain is possible there late in the week. ICE said that 0 notices were posted against March contracts and that total deliveries for the month are 0 contracts.

Overnight News: Florida weather forecasts call for mostly dry conditions or light showers. Temperatures will average near to above normal.

Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed to up with no objectives. Support is at 134.00, 132.00, and 124.00 May, with resistance at 140.00, 141.00, and 144.00 May.

About the Author

Jack Scovilleis a veteran futures market analyst specializing in grains, softs, rice, oilseeds, and tropical products such as coffee and sugar. His industry contacts in South America, Europe, Asia, and North America provide him with a unique and comprehensive view of these markets. Jack began working in the futures industry over 30 years ago and spent 10 years working on the floor of the Chicago Board of Trade in various roles, starting with The PRICE Futures Group since it was established in 1988. Jack writes daily commentaries - Morning Grains and Softs, in both English and Spanish and is regularly quoted around the world by news & wire services including Dow Jones, AP, Bloomberg, and Reuters. You can contact Jack by phone at (312) 264-4322 or by email at jscoville@pricegroup.com. Learn even more on our website at www.pricegroup.com.

Futures and options trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. The information presented by The PRICE Futures Group is from sources believed to be reliable and all information reported is subject to change without notice.