The Paychex | IHS Small Business Jobs Index

With small businesses representing nearly 95 percent of all employers in the U.S., the Paychex | IHS Small Business Jobs Index serves as an indicator of the overall economy, providing a monthly, up-to-date measure of change in small business employment. The data for the jobs index comes from a subset of the Paychex client base, approximately 350,000 businesses with less than 50 workers in the U.S.

This Month's Highlights

The Paychex | IHS Small Business Jobs Index analyzes year-over-year worker count changes, trending the results to reveal movement in small business employment. Analysis is provided each month by the economists at IHS, a leading global source of critical information and insight.

Trends and Analysis

"At 100.38, the Paychex | IHS Small Business Jobs Index was essentially unchanged from the previous month and from November 2015, representing consistent small business job growth rates from this time a year ago."

- James DiffleyChief Regional Economist, IHS

-0.31%3-Month National Trend

The national index has declined for three straight months, from 100.70 to 100.38 in November.

Month

Change

September

-0.18%

October

-0.11%

November

-0.02%

Neutral Trend

At 100.38, the Paychex | IHS Small Business Jobs Index settled at a level consistent with this time a year ago, after three consecutive months of decline. The recent slowdown in job growth flattened from October to November, with the index decreasing just 0.02 percent. Despite the index’s recent declines, small businesses have experienced positive job gains for more than 60 consecutive months, dating back to 2011. With one month remaining in 2016, the national index has averaged 100.64, just above 2015’s average of 100.59.

Regional Analysis

Declines in New England, Pacific, and the West South Central, specifically Texas, drove the national index down in November, offsetting modest gains for the rest of the country. Climbing to 101.93, with a 0.18 percent increase in November, the South Atlantic is back near its record high set in June, 101.96. However, neighboring East South Central jumped 1.40 percent in November to 102.96 to take the lead among regions. Compared to the East South Central, the West South Central has trended in the opposite direction during the past year, falling from second to last place among regions. Moving farther west, Pacific began 2016 with four consecutive increases, but has decreased each of the past five months and is now at its lowest level since January 2012.

State Analysis

Georgia overtook Washington as the top-ranked state, increasing 0.72 percent from October and 2.31 percent from last November. Georgia’s index has averaged 102.49 in 2016, as small business job growth in the state has been fast paced. While Washington slowed in October and November, its index has averaged 104.01 in 2016. Both Georgia and Washington have experienced strong all-firm job growth, according to the BLS. Hitting a record-high pace of small business job growth last month, New Jersey increased again in November to 101.99. At 99.14, Texas is down 1.86 percent during the past quarter and 3.55 percent for the past year. Below the baseline at 99.73, California dropped three more spots to 17th among states, ahead of only Texas, Arizona, and Illinois.

Metro Analysis

Seattle maintained its lead over Atlanta in the metro rankings, but the gap shrunk significantly with Seattle at 103.63 and Atlanta at 103.50. With an index of 100.19, Minneapolis is up 2.26 percent year-over-year, as it recovers from a low point last November. Growth has slowed in 16 of the last 20 months in California, with Riverside and San Francisco contributing significantly in November, down 0.70 percent and 0.64 percent, respectively. Despite recent signs from other economic data that total job levels are stabilizing, Houston lost another 0.32 percent in November. At 96.14, Houston small business employment conditions are currently worse than the low point of the recession in September 2008.

Industry Analysis

November saw little change among industry results. Leisure and Hospitality increased by 0.20 percent and Construction declined 0.17 percent. Not only did Leisure and Hospitality have the best one-month growth rate in October, its index jumped to second place among industries in November, demonstrating continued strength. Construction’s decrease marked its eighth in the last nine months. Previously ranked in first or second position among industries every month since November 2012, Construction fell to third in October and fourth in November. Essentially unchanged at 97.82, Manufacturing remains the lowest-ranked industry index and has been since March 2015.

National Index

A monthly, up-to-date measure of change in small business employment in the U.S., the Paychex | IHS Small Business Jobs Index analyzes year-over-year worker count changes, trending the results to reveal movement in small business employment. An upward trend represents a strengthening job market, while a downward trend is a sign of a slowdown.

Month

Index

11/1/2016

100.38

10/1/2016

100.41

9/1/2016

100.52

8/1/2016

100.70

7/1/2016

100.68

6/1/2016

100.81

5/1/2016

100.59

4/1/2016

100.77

3/1/2016

100.74

2/1/2016

100.75

1/1/2016

100.65

12/1/2015

100.37

Time Period

Regional Performance

Jobs index data is also used to analyze year-over-year regional small business employment across the U.S., providing a gauge of the performance of regional employment. Percentages are based on a 12-month change, with 1-month and base-year changes available in the dropdown menu.

Change

+3.42%

+1.28%

-0.71%

+0.59%

-0.08%

-0.81%

+0.13%

-0.83%

-2.86%

+1.40%

+0.18%

-0.08%

+0.07%

+0.23%

-0.23%

+0.62%

-0.51%

-0.84%

+3.08%

+0.55%

-0.05%

+0.60%

+1.42%

+0.23%

+0.19%

-0.92%

-1.50%

-3.50%

0.00%

3.50%

-1.50%

0.00%

1.50%

-3.25%

0.00%

3.25%

East South Central+3.42%(102.96)

South Atlantic+1.28%(101.93)

Middle Atlantic+0.59%(100.41)

West North Central+0.13%(99.86)

East North Central-0.08%(100.17)

Mountain-0.71%(100.90)

Pacific-0.81%(100.13)

New England-0.83%(99.22)

West South Central-2.86%(98.38)

East South Central+1.40%(102.96)

West North Central+0.62%(99.86)

East North Central+0.23%(100.17)

South Atlantic+0.18%(101.93)

Middle Atlantic+0.07%(100.41)

Mountain-0.08%(100.90)

Pacific-0.23%(100.13)

New England-0.51%(99.22)

West South Central-0.84%(98.38)

East South Central+3.08%(102.96)

East North Central+1.42%(100.17)

Middle Atlantic+0.60%(100.41)

South Atlantic+0.55%(101.93)

Pacific+0.23%(100.13)

West North Central+0.19%(99.86)

Mountain-0.05%(100.90)

New England-0.92%(99.22)

West South Central-1.50%(98.38)

State, Metro & Industry Performance

Analysis of state, metro, and industry data is provided to reveal trends in small business employment from the country's 20 largest states and metro areas based on U.S. population, as well as eight major industry sectors. Percentages are based on a 12-month change, with 1-month and base-year changes available in the chart legend.

By State

State

This Month's Index

1-Month Change

12-Month Change

Base-Year Change

Georgia

103.47

0.72%

2.31%

1.36%

Washington

103.31

-0.92%

0.11%

2.73%

Tennessee

102.74

1.10%

2.59%

2.53%

North Carolina

102.22

-0.03%

1.25%

1.91%

Florida

102.09

0.18%

0.53%

0.57%

New Jersey

101.99

0.19%

1.39%

1.42%

Virginia

101.98

-0.23%

2.86%

-0.83%

Ohio

100.90

0.30%

1.13%

2.58%

Maryland

100.69

0.43%

1.68%

0.24%

Missouri

100.58

0.21%

-0.52%

1.04%

Wisconsin

100.46

0.38%

-0.32%

2.63%

Michigan

100.15

0.16%

-0.18%

1.57%

Indiana

99.99

0.83%

0.03%

0.72%

Pennsylvania

99.87

-0.07%

-0.14%

0.64%

New York

99.84

0.06%

0.47%

0.21%

Massachusetts

99.78

0.05%

-0.19%

-0.78%

California

99.73

-0.15%

-0.86%

0.01%

Texas

99.14

-0.48%

-3.55%

-1.13%

Arizona

99.11

-0.60%

-1.85%

-1.13%

Illinois

99.06

-0.10%

-1.56%

-0.89%

By Metro

Metro

This Month's Index

1-Month Change

12-Month Change

Base-Year Change

Seattle

103.63

-1.01%

0.76%

2.83%

Atlanta

103.50

0.68%

2.45%

1.31%

Dallas

101.96

0.02%

-4.30%

1.38%

Baltimore

101.59

0.31%

2.96%

1.75%

Washington

101.13

-0.20%

1.73%

-0.87%

New York City

101.09

0.08%

1.35%

0.76%

San Diego

100.60

0.14%

0.11%

1.82%

Tampa Bay

100.60

0.38%

-0.62%

-1.05%

Boston

100.54

0.09%

0.50%

-0.22%

Philadelphia

100.43

-0.14%

0.24%

0.70%

Miami

100.23

0.21%

-1.35%

-0.31%

Minneapolis

100.19

0.74%

2.26%

0.14%

St. Louis

100.03

0.26%

-1.23%

0.99%

Detroit

99.94

0.07%

-0.56%

1.77%

Los Angeles

99.78

-0.05%

-0.01%

-0.56%

Phoenix

99.62

-0.60%

-1.41%

-0.62%

Chicago

99.35

0.15%

-1.10%

-0.70%

Riverside, CA

99.32

-0.70%

-2.28%

-0.29%

San Francisco

99.08

-0.64%

-2.26%

-0.32%

Houston

96.14

-0.32%

-3.62%

-4.28%

By Industry

Industry

This Month's Index

1-Month Change

12-Month Change

Base-Year Change

Other Services (except Public Administration)

104.49

0.12%

0.35%

4.23%

Leisure and Hospitality

100.83

0.20%

0.61%

3.58%

Education and Health Services

100.79

-0.12%

0.27%

0.80%

Construction

100.69

-0.17%

-0.88%

-1.57%

Trade, Transportation, and Utilities

99.59

0.04%

-0.21%

0.90%

Financial Activities

99.26

0.08%

-0.86%

-0.46%

Professional and Business Services

99.14

-0.11%

-0.45%

-1.04%

Manufacturing

97.82

0.01%

-1.52%

-1.86%

News Release

For further insight into this month's Small Business Jobs Index, read the news release.

Paychex, Inc. (NASDAQ: PAYX) is a leading provider of integrated human capital management solutions for payroll, HR, retirement, and insurance services. By combining its innovative software-as-a-service technology and mobility platform with dedicated, personal service, Paychex empowers small- and medium-sized business owners to focus on the growth and management of their business. Backed by 45 years of industry expertise, Paychex serves approximately 605,000 payroll clients across more than 100 locations and pays one out of every 12 American private sector employees. Learn more about Paychex by visiting www.paychex.com, and stay connected on Twitter and LinkedIn.