In 2004, Bush won the recorded vote by 50.7-48.3%, a 3 million vote margin. Kerry won the National Exit Poll by 51.7-47.0%, a 6 million margin. View the 7:33pm 2004 National Exit Poll (not for on-air use)

The following states flipped from Kerry in the exit poll to Bush:CO FL IA MO NM NV OH VA. Kerry needed FL or OH to win.

2004: average exit poll margin of error (MoE) was 3.43%2016: average exit poll MoE was 3.52%

Before the advent of the personal computer, mainframes and minicomputers were programmed by professionals in major corporations. Programming was hard and time consuming. Computers were used by scientists, engineers, investment bankers and other analytical professionals.

In 1965, my first job was as a numerical control FORTRAN programmer in the aerospace industry. The 7094 IBM mainframe was a 512k machine which required a full floor of office space. It was on rental from the U.S. Navy.

Computers grew in power and were smaller in size during the 1970s. As manager of software development in Investment Banking at Merrill Lynch on Wall Street . I used FORTRAN to develop financial models.

In the late 1970s, personal computers were considered as toys- until the first spreadsheets appeared. All of a sudden, one could do simple calculations without having to write complex programs. Lotus 1-2-3 had limited programming features (“macros”). I immediately converted FORTRAN financial programs to spreadsheets with graphics capabilities. As a consultant to major domestic and foreign corporations I switched to Excel in 1995 . Excel was used with C++ for advanced financial data base and derivatives models.

MATRIX OF DECEIT

A matrix is just a table (rectangular array) of numbers. In a spreadsheet, the table consists of data in cells (column, row). Basic arithmetic operations applied to the matrix are sufficient to prove election fraud.

Actual, raw unadjusted exit poll results are changed in all matrix crosstabs (demographics) to conform to the recorded vote. The crosstab “How Did You Vote in the previous election?” has proved to be the Smoking Gunin detecting presidential election fraud from 1988-2008.

2000

Gore won the unadjusted National Exit Poll and State Exit Poll aggregate which indicated that he won by 3-5 million votes – not the 540,000 recorded. But the National Exit Poll was forced to match the recorded vote. The election was stolen – big time.

2000 Unadjusted National Exit Poll (13,108 respondents)

Total

Gore

Bush

Nader

Other

13,108

6,359

6,065

523

161

48.51%

46.27%

3.99%

1.23%

2000 Unadjusted State Exit Poll Aggregate

Voted ’96

Turnout

Mix

Gore

Bush

Other

New/DNV

17,732

16%

52%

43%

5%

Clinton

48,763

44%

87%

10%

3%

Dole

35,464

32%

7%

91%

2%

Perot/other

8,866

8%

23%

65%

12%

Total cast

110,825

100%

50.68%

45.60%

3.72%

110,825

56,166

50,536

4,123

2000 National Exit Poll (forced to match recorded vote)

Voted ’96

Turnout

Mix

Gore

Bush

Other

New/DNV

18,982

18%

52%

43%

5%

Clinton

42,183

40%

87%

10%

3%

Dole

35,856

34%

7%

91%

2%

Other

8,437

8%

23%

65%

12%

Total

105,458

100%

48.38%

47.87%

3.75%

105,458

51,004

50,456

3,998

2004

The Final National Exit Poll was forced to match the recorded vote (Bush won by 3 million). The election was stolen.

Kerry won the unadjusted National Exit Poll and State Exit Poll aggregate by 6 million votes. The True Vote Model (assuming a plausible estimate of returning 2000 election voters) indicated that he won by 10 million votes with a 53.7% share.

2004 Unadjusted National Exit Poll (13,660 respondents)

Kerry

Bush

Other

13,660

7,064

6,414

182

share

51.71%

47.0%

1.3%

2004 Unadjusted National Exit Poll

(implausible 2000 returning voters; Gore won by 4-6m)

2000

Voted

Mix

Kerry

Bush

Other

DNV

23,116

18.38%

57%

41%

2%

Gore

48,248

38.37%

91%

8%

1%

Bush

49,670

39.50%

10%

90%

0%

Other

4,703

3.74%

64%

17%

19%

Total

125,737

100%

51.8%

46.8%

1.5%

125,737

65,070

58,829

1,838

2004 Final Adjusted National Exit Poll

(Impossible Bush 2000 voter turnout; forced to match recorded vote)

2000

Turnout

Mix

Kerry

Bush

Other

Alive

Turnout

DNV

20,790

17%

54%

44%

2%

–

–

Gore

45,249

37%

90%

10%

0%

48,454

93%

Bush

52,586

43%

9%

91%

0%

47,933

110%

Other

3,669

3%

64%

14%

22%

3,798

97%

Total

122,294

100%

48.27%

50.73%

1.00%

100,185

94%

59,031

62,040

1,223

2008

Obama won the unadjusted National Exit Poll by 61-37% (a 30 million vote margin). He won the State Exit Poll aggregate 58-40% (a 23 million vote margin). But the Final National Exit Poll was forced to match the recorded 9.5 million vote margin. The landslide was denied.

2008 Unadjusted National Exit Poll (17,836 respondents)

Obama

McCain

Other

17,836

10,873

6,641

322

100%

61.0%

37.2%

1.8%

2008 Final National Exit Poll

(forced to match recorded vote)

GENDER

Mix

Obama

McCain

Other

Male

47%

49%

49%

2%

Female

53%

56%

43%

1%

Share

100%

52.87%

45.59%

1.54%

Votes(mil)

131.463

69.50

59.94

2.02

2008 Unadjusted National Exit Poll

(plausible returning 2004 voter mix)

Voted

2004

2008

Exact match to TVM & unadj state exit pollls

2004

Implied

Votes

Mix

Obama

McCain

Other

DNV

–

17.66

13.43%

71%

27%

2%

Kerry

50.18%

57.11

43.44%

89%

9%

2%

Bush

44.62%

50.78

38.63%

17%

82%

1%

Other

5.20%

5.92

4.50%

72%

26%

2%

Total

131.46

100%

58.00%

40.35%

1.65%

Votes

131.463

76.25

53.04

2.17

Adjusted 2008 National Exit Poll

(forced to match recorded vote with

Voted

2004

2008

impossible returning 2004 voters)

2004

Implied

Votes

Mix

Obama

McCain

Other

DNV

–

17.09

13%

71%

27%

2%

Kerry

42.53%

48.64

37%

89%

9%

2%

Bush

52.87%

60.47

46%

17%

82%

1%

Other

4.60%

5.26

4%

72%

26%

2%

Total

131.46

100%

52.87%

45.60%

1.54%

Votes

131.463

69.50

59.95

2.02

2004 Sensitivity Analysis

How is Kerry’s vote share effected by changes in vote share assumptions? Consider the following matrices (tables). He wins all plausible scenarios.

The 2004 National Exit Poll was impossible. It was forced to match the recorded vote (Bush 50.7-48.3%) using an impossible number of returning Bush 2000 voters. The NEP indicated that 52.6 million (43% of the 2004 electorate) were returning Bush 2000 voters and just 45.3 million (37%) were returning Gore voters – an impossible 110% turnout of living Bush 2000 voters in 2004. Bush had just 50.5 million recorded votes in 2000, so there could not have been 52.6 million returning voters.

The following analysis is additional confirmation that the election was stolen.

In the 2004 National Exit Poll, there were 13,660 respondents (51.7% said they voted for Kerry and 47.0% for Bush). Kerry led throughout the exit poll timeline, from 8349 at 4pm to the final 13660 respondents.

But the NEP was forced to match recorded vote by switching 471 (6.7%) of Kerry’s 7,064 respondents to Bush. The average within precinct discrepancy (WPD) was a nearly identical 6.5%. The True Vote Model indicates that Kerry had 53.6%.

There is a conflict between the unadjusted 2004 National Exit Poll in which voters were asked who they voted for (Kerry had 51.7%) and the number of returning voters in the ‘How did you vote in 2000’ crosstab (adjusted to 43% of the 2004 electorate for Bush and 37% for Gore).

Confirmation that Kerry won easily
No matter how you slice and dice the numbers, Kerry is the clear winner:

Note: In the 2008 National Exit Poll (17,836 respondents), 4,178 were asked how they voted in 2004. The results confirmed the 5-7% Kerry margins shown above:
Kerry had 1815 (50.2%), Bush 1614 (44.6%), Other 168 (5.2%), Did not vote 581 (13.4%)

2004 National Exit Poll Timeline
Kerry led all the way at each point in the timeline- from 8,649 to 13,660 respondents.
But the National Election Pool funds the exit pollsters. The NEP did not want the public to know that Kerry won the True Vote. So they adjusted the National Exit Poll to conform to the stolen election recorded vote. The Timeline, in conjunction with the impossible number of returning 2000 Bush voters, is a powerful confirmation that the will of the voters was compromised just like it was in 2000. Bush stole both elections.

The Washington Post displayed the 2004 National Exit Poll at 12:22am. Note that returning Nader voters (3% of the 2004 electorate) are missing in the 2000 presidential votecategory. Since Kerry won at least 64% of returning Nader voters, not including them in the crosstab reduced his total vote share margin from 3.7% to 1%. Was this just an oversight?

8. Proof of fraud: IMPOSSIBLE ADJUSTED 2004 National Exit poll The NEP required 7 million more returning Bush than Gore voters in order to MATCH the recorded vote. It indicated that 52.59 million Bush 2000 voters turned out in 2004 (43% of the vote). But Bush only had 50.46 million votes in 2000. APPROXIMATELY 2 MILLION DIED AND 1 MILLION DID NOT RETURN IN 2004. Therefore there had to be at least 5 MILLION (52.6-47.5) PHANTOM BUSH VOTERS.

An IMPOSSIBLE adjustment had to be made to the National Exit poll in order to MATCH the recorded vote, therefore the RECORDED VOTE must also have been IMPOSSIBLE. THE 2000 and 2004 ELECTIONS WERE STOLEN.
2000 Turnout Mix....Kerry.Bush..Other....Alive..Turnout
DNV. 20,790 17%....54%...44%....2% ------ ------
Gore 45,249 37%....90%...10%....0%.....48,454...93%
Bush 52,586 43%.....9%...91%....0%.....47,933. 110%
Other 3,669 3%.....64%...14%...22%......3,798...97%Total.122,294.....48.3%..50.7% 1.0%....100,185..94%
Votes............59,031..62,040 1,223

9. Unadjusted 2004 National Exit Poll
Kerry had 51.7% in the Unadjusted National Exit Poll. Given the 12:28am exit poll shares, matching to 51.7% required an implausible 1.4 million more returning Bush than Gore voters. But Gore won the unadjusted state exit polls by 5 million votes.

The probability of winning the election is the ratio of winning simulation trials (at least 270 EV) to the total number of simulation trials (200).

The model contains the following 2-party vote shares:
2000- Gore unadjusted state and national exit polls and recorded shares
2004- Kerry unadjusted state and national exit polls and recorded shares
2008- Obama Unadjusted state and national exit polls and recorded shares
2012- Obama state and national True Vote and recorded shares
(In 2012, 19 states were not exit polled)

There are three Total Electoral Vote calculations:
1-Theoretical EV: the product sum of state win probabilities and corresponding EVs.
2-Snapshot EV: sum of the projected electoral votes.
3-Mean EV: average EV of the all simulation trials.

In 2000, Gore defeated Bush by just 544,000 recorded votes. But he won the unadjusted state exit poll aggregate by 51.7-46.8%, Given that there were 105.4 million recorded votes, then based in the exit polls, he won by at least 5 million votes. There were 11 states in which he led the exit polls but flipped to Bush. If he had won just one, he would have won the election. If he won all 11, he would have had 408 electoral votes.

In 2004, Kerry had a 48.3% recorded share, 252 EV and lost by 3 million votes. But the unadjusted state and national exit polls indicate that he had 51-52% and won by 5-6 million votes with 349 EV. Seven states with 97 electoral votes flipped from Kerry in the exit polls to Bush in the recorded vote: CO,FL,IA,MO,NV,OH,VA. Kerry would have had 252+97=349 electoral votes had he won the states. The True Vote Model indicates that he had 53.5% and won by 10 million votes.

In the 2008 Election Model Obama’s 365.3 expected theoretical electoral vote was a near-perfect match to his recorded 365 EV. The simulation mean EV was 365.8 and the snapshot was 367. Obama’s won all 5000 election trials. His projected 53.1% share was a close match to the 52.9% recorded share.

The 2008 TVM exactly matched Obama’s 58% share of the unadjusted state exit polls: he won by 23 million votes (not the 9.5 million recorded) and had 420 electoral votes. Obama led the unadjusted National Exit Poll (17,836 respondents, 2% MoE) by 61-37%, an astounding 30 million vote margin.

Pre-election Registered Voter (RV) polls projected a 57% Obama share which closely matched the True Vote Model. Likely Voter (LV) polls are a subset of the RV polls. The LVs eliminate many new voters or others who did not vote in the prior election, cutting the projected Democratic share.

LV polls have an excellent track record in predicting the bogus recorded vote, as proven by the 2008 and 2012 Election Models. Final pre-election LV polls are used by the political pundits for their projections. After all, the media is paid to forecast the official recorded vote – not the true vote.

7 In 1988 the approximate number of uncounted votes was
a) 6, b) 9, c) 11 million

8 Of 274 state exit polls from 1988-2008, 135 exceeded the margin of error (14 expected). How many moved in favor of the GOP?
a) 85, b) 105, c) 131

9 Gore won the popular vote in 2000. In 2004, returning Nader voters were 5-1 for Kerry, new voters 3-2 for Kerry. In order for Bush to win, he must have won
a) 30% of returning Gore voters, b) 90% of returning Bush voters, c) both (a) and (b).

10 In 2008 Obama won 58% of the state exit poll aggregate. Given it was his True Vote, he had how many Electoral Votes?
a) 365, b) 395, c) 420

11 What is the probability that 131 of 274 state exit polls from 1988-2008 would red-shift to the GOP beyond the margin of error?
a) 1 in 1 million, b) 1 in 1 trillion, c) 1 in 1 trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion (E-116)

12 In 2000 12 states flipped from Gore in the exit polls to Bush in the recorded vote. Gore would have won the election if he had won
a) 1, b) 2, c) 3 of the 12 states

13 In 1988 24 states had exit polls (2/3 of the total recorded vote). Dukakis won the state polls by
a) 50-49%, b) 51-48%, c) 52-47%

14 Exit polls are always adjusted to conform to the recorded vote. It is standard operating procedure and
a) reported by the corporate media, b) noted by academia, c) statistical proof of election fraud

15 Bush had 50.5 million votes in 2000. Approximately 2.5 million died and 1 million did not return to vote in 2004. Therefore, there could not have been more than 47 million returning Bush 2000 voters. But the 2004 National Exit Poll indicated 52.6 million returning Bush voters. This is proof that
a) Bush stole the 2004 election, b) it was a clerical error, c) 6 million Bush votes were not recorded in 2000.

16 In 2000 Gore won the popular vote by 540,000 votes (48.4-47.9%). He won the unadjusted state exit poll aggregate by 50.8-44.4% and the unadjusted National Exit Poll by 48.5-46.3%, indicating that
a) the state exit poll aggregate was outside the margin of error, b) the National poll was within the margin of error, c) the election was stolen, d) all

17 Corporate media websites show that Bush won the 2004 National Exit Poll (13660 respondents) by 51-48%, matching the recorded vote. But the unadjusted National Exit Poll indicates that Kerry won by 51.0-47.6% (7064-6414 respondents). The discrepancy is proof that
a) the poll was adjusted to match the recorded vote, b) Bush stole the election, c) both, d) neither

18 The pervasive difference between the exit polls and the recorded vote in every election is due to
a) inexperienced pollsters, b) Republican reluctance to be polled, c) systemic election fraud

19 In 1992 Clinton defeated Bush by 43-37.5% (Perot had 19.5%). Clinton won the unadjusted National exit poll by 48-32-20%. Bush needed 119% turnout of returning 1988 Bush voters to match the recorded vote. These anomalies were due to
a) bad polling, b) Bush voters refused to be polled, c) Bush tried but failed to steal the election.

22 The expected electoral vote is based on
a) state win probabilities, b) state electoral votes, c) both, d) neither

23 To match the recorded vote, which exit poll crosstab weights and shares are adjusted?
a) when decided, b) how voted in prior election, c) party ID, d) gender, e) education, f) income, g) all

24 In 2004 Bush’s final pre-election approval rating was 48%, but it was 53% in the adjusted National Exit Poll. The discrepancy was due to
a) late change in approval, b) different polls, c) forcing the exit poll to match the recorded vote

25 The True Vote Model is designed to calculate the fraud-free vote. The TVM utilizes final exit poll shares but estimates returning voters based on the prior election
a) recorded vote, b) votes cast, c) unadjusted exit poll, d) true vote, e) all