Sunday, April 21, 2013

All 38 seats in the Michigan Senate are up for election in 2014. Republicans currently have a 26-12 supermajority, and have controlled the senate since 1983.

Republican control of the state senate has prevented democrats from complete control of Michigan's government, and stopped a lot of bad things from being passed. More recently, the Republican supermajority has prevented some of Governor Snyder's more liberal plans from being implemented.

Fortunately for Republicans, the Michigan state senate is up only in midterms, which favor Republicans much more than presidential years. 2010 was very good to the Michigan GOP. Republicans picked up four state senate seats (and one earlier in a 2009 special election).

Republicans had complete control of redistricting this cycle. They crafted a very effective map. One democrat district was eliminated in Wayne County and replaced by a Republican one in west Michigan. Four other dem districts were made more dem. Most of the potentially vulnerable Republican seats were made more Republican, though a couple got slightly worse due to the need to avoid splitting counties. The new map is actually cleaner than the old one, excluding the Detroit districts, which are ugly for VRA reasons.

There are ten open seats. Seven senators, four republicans and three democrats, are term-limited. Two republicans are just retiring, and one is running for Congress. Three Republican-held open seats (17, 20, 32) are tossups. Democrats have only one top challenger to a Republican incumbent (7), though another (34) could be competitive. Notably, dems failed to recruit credible candidates in several districts that were hotly contested in 2010 (29, 31, 38).

All but one of the current state senators are former state representatives. This pattern held in the past, and most credible candidates this time are current or former state reps.

I have included election data for the 2010 result in the corresponding (old) senate district, and 2008 McCain number and 2006 average (Governor, AG, SOS) for the new districts pulled from Dave's Redistricting App. My analyses of how much redistricting changed the districts comes from comparing the old and new districts using these elections. More data is available from Republican Michigander's district profiles.

The McCain numbers look terrible for Republicans because he collapsed after publicly pulling out of Michigan. The largest McCain percentage in any Michigan state senate district won by a democrat in the past decade is 46.2% in (old) district 31.

1. [Detroit riverfront, Downriver] Safe democrat.
Democrat: Coleman Young (incumbent)
Republican: Barry Berk
Analysis: One of five black-majority districts based in Detroit. Young is the son of the infamous late Mayor of Detroit.

2. [NE Detroit, Grosse Pointes] Safe democrat.
Democrat: Bert Johnson (incumbent)
Republican: Mark Price
Analysis: One of five black-majority districts based in Detroit. Jonhson is a convicted felon since he robbed a country club at age 19. He was previously running for Congress in the 14th district, but dropped out. He won the primary 63-22 over John Olumba, who was elected state rep as a democrat, but left the party due to disputes with leadership.

5. [W Detroit, Dearborn Heights, Garden City, Inkster, Redford] Safe democrat.
Incumbent: Tupak Hunter (term limited)
Democrat: David Knezek
Republican: Jennifer Rynicki
Analysis: One of five black-majority districts based in Detroit. Knezek, the only white rep, won 29% over former state rep. Shanelle Jackson (25%), David Nathan (22%), and Thomas Stallworth (17%) the latter three of whom are current state reps.

7. [Livonia, Canton, Plymouth, Northville, Wayne city] Lean Republican.
Old SS 2010: 52-41-5, McCain: 46.6, 2006 R Avg: 59.2 Romney: 49.6
Republican: Patrick Colbeck (incumbent)
Democrat: Dian Slavens
Analysis: This Republican district was improved by dropping the southern tier and adding Livonia. It moved 2.9/3.6% to the right. Colbeck was a Tea Party candidate who was elected in 2010. He is the only current state senator who was not previously a state rep. Colbeck was a leader advocating for Right to Work and opposing Medicaid expansion. He will be a target of the unions. Slavens is a term-limited state rep from Canton.

8. [N/E Macomb] Safe Republican.
Old SS 2010: 66-34, McCain: 49.3, 2006 R Avg: 57.9 Romney: 53.5
Republican: Jack Brandenburg (incumbent)
Democrat: Christine Bell
Analysis: Brandenburg, one of the more conservative Republicans in the senate, is safe in this conservative district. He will be a candidate for leadership in 2015.

10. [Sterling Heights, Macomb, N Clinton] Safe Republican.
Old SS 2010: 54-46, McCain: 47, 2006 R Avg: 56.2 Romney: 50.7
Republican: Tory Rocca (incumbent)
Democrat: Kenneth Jenkins
Analysis: Rocca is a fairly moderate senator representing central Macomb. He was one of four Republicans to vote against Right to Work, and also supported Medicaid expansion. This district was improved by 4.2/4.1% in redistricting after Rocca picked up the previously dem district in 2010.

11. [Farmington, Southfield, Oak Park, Madison Heights] Safe democrat.
Old SS 2010: 33-67, McCain: 25.5, 2006 R Avg: 36.5 Romney: 25.8
Democrat: Vincent Gregory (incumbent)
Republican: Boris Tuman
Analysis: Gregory is a black democrat representing the dem areas of southern Oakland. He had announced a run for Congress in the 14th district, but dropped out to seek reelection. Two term-limited state reps, Vicki Barnett and Ellen Cogen Lipton, who had announced for the open seat challenged him. Gregory won 35-34-31.

13. [Troy, Rochester, Royal Oak, Birmingham] Safe Republican.
Old SS 2010: 59-41, McCain: 45.8, 2006 R Avg: 59.5 Romney: 50
Incumbent: John Pappageorge (term-limited)
Democrat: Cyndi Peltonen
Republican: Marty Knollenberg
Analysis: Pappageorge barely held this district when it was open in 2006, 49-48.4, but easily won in 2010. It dropped Madison Heights, and moved 1/1.1% to the right. State rep. Tom McMillin of dropped out to run for Congress. Three former state reps ran. Chuck Moss (Bloomfield Hills, 2006-2012) was an establishment favorite, but represented are fairly small part of the district. Marty Knollenberg (Troy, 2006-2012), the son of former Congressman Joe Knollenberg, lost races for Oakland Treasurer (2012) and Troy Mayor (2013). Rocky Raczkowski represented a completely different district (Farmington, 1996-2002) before moving to Troy. He lost races for US Senate (2002) and Congress (2010), but had the support of Pappageorge. Knollenberg beat Rocky by only 72 votes, 36-36-20. Fishman, a 25-year-old lawyer who claimed to be a former Republican, raised 211K and lost 45-55 to Peltonen, who raised 7K.

17. [Monroe, Lenawee] Tossup
Old SS 2010: 59-38, McCain: 46.8, 2006 R Avg: 54.4 Romney: 49.4
Incumbent: Randy Richardville (term-limited)
Democrat: Doug Spade
Republican: Dale Zorn
Analysis: Richardville, the senate majority leader, is termed out. He won 53-47 in 2006 and 59-38 in 2010. This district is fairly union-friendly, with the state rep seats it contains repeatedly flipping between parties. The district added Lenawee and dropped portions of Washtenaw and Jackson, moving 1.2/1% to the right. Spade was a state rep from Lenawee 1998-2004. Zorn has represented all of Monroe between two terms in 2010-2014.

19. [Calhoun, Barry, Ionia] Safe Republican.
Old SS 2010: 64-36, McCain: 48.6, 2006 R Avg: 57.5 Romney: 52.7
Republican: Mike Nofs (incumbent)
Democrat: Greg Grieves
Analysis: Nofs picked up this seat previously held by Mark Schauer 61-34 in a 2009 special election. It moves right 3/1% by dropping Jackson and adding Barry and Ionia. Nofs is the most moderate Republican in the state senate, and was one of the four Republican votes against Right to Work.

20. [Kalamazoo County] Tossup
Old SS 2010: 58-42, McCain: 39.4, 2006 R Avg: 51.1 Romney: 42.9
Incumbent: Tonya Schuitmaker (running in district 26)
Republican: Margaret O'Brien
Democrat: Sean McCann
Libertarian: Lorence Wenke
Analysis: Tonya won 58-42% in 2010 over Kalamazoo Mayor Bobby Hopewell. (The result was 52-48 in 2006.) Hopewell was a last-minute replacement for State rep. Robert Jones, who died shortly before the election. Tonya is from Van Buren county. Due to increases in population, Kalamazoo County became large enough to be its own senate seat, and the portion of Van Buren was lost. This moved the district to the left by 0.3/0.2%. Tonya will run in the new 26th district. Kalamazoo County is a battleground, with democrats usually winning the top of the ticket, and Republicans doing better at the bottom. O'Brien is a state rep from Portage (2010-2014). Lorence Wenke (Comstock, 2004-2010) is a free-spending but unpopular former Republican state rep. McCann is a state rep (2010-2014) from Kalamazoo.

26. [Van Buren, Allegan, Kentwood] Safe Republican.
(New district) McCain: 50.6, 2006 R Avg: 62.6 Romney: 54.8
Republican: Tonya Schuitmaker (incumbent)
Democrat: Jim Walters
Analysis: This new district replaces one eliminated from Wayne County. It contains Tonya's home and all of her old state house district, but only about 10% of her current state senate district. Tonya is usually conservative and resides in Van Buren.

27. [Flint, central Genesee] Safe democrat.
Old SS 2010: 31-66, McCain: 23.6, 2006 R Avg: 31.6 Romney: 24.8
Democrat: Jim Ananich (incumbent)
Republican: Brendt Gerics
Analysis: The old district was vacated by John Gleason, who was elected Genesee County Clerk in 2012. In the special democrat primary, Jim Ananich beat Woodrow Stanley, and won the general election 75-23. The new district moves 6.1/6.4% left, consolidating the most democrat parts of Genesee in one district.

31. [Bay, Tuscola, Lapeer] Safe Republican.
Old SS 2010: 59-41, McCain: 46.2, 2006 R Avg: 54.3 Romney: 51.4
Republican: Mike Green (incumbent)
Democrat: Ron Mindykowski
Analysis: Green beat Jeff Mayes in 2010, picking up the seat formerly held by democrat Jim Barcia. The new district drops Huron, Sanilac and Arenac, and adds Lapeer. It is unchanged by 2008 Pres and moves 0.3% left by 2006 avg, though Lapeer is less prone to large swings than the Thumb counties. Green is the strongest gun rights advocate in the state senate. He voted against Right to Work, likely for political reasons in this union-friendly district. He narrowly won the primary 50-46 over conservative state rep. Kevin Daley of Lapeer County.

32. [Saginaw, W Genesee] Tossup
Old SS 2010: 57-43, McCain: 42.4, 2006 R Avg: 50.7 Romney: 45.5
Incumbent: Roger Khan (term-limited)
Democrat: Stacy Erwin Oakes
Republican: Ken Horn
Analysis: Khan won a nail-biter 49-48.5 in 2006, and was re-elected more easily in 2010. This district drops Gratiot and adds Western Genesee, moving to the right 0.9/0.4%. Horn is a moderate who opposed Right to Work in this union-friendly district. Oakes, a black state rep (2010-2014) from Saginaw, won the democrat nomination 62-38 over Garnet Lewis, a white progressive lesbian.

38. [Upper Peninsula excluding Mackinac, Chippewa, Luce] Safe Republican.
Old SS 2010: 56-44, McCain: 45.3, 2006 R Avg: 47.2 Romney 50.3
Republican: Tom Casperson (incumbent)
Democrat: Christopher Germain
Analysis: Casperson beat Michael Lahti in 2010 to become the first Republican to win the UP state senate district in decades. The district drops Luce, moving it 0.2/0.1% left. The UP swings substantially depending on the year and the candidate. Casperson has voted a fairly moderate line in the state senate, in contrast to his conservative record in the state house. He opposed Right to Work, likely for political reasons, and switched his vote to support Medicaid expansion. The democrats could not recruit a credible candidate.

LANSING (WKZO) -- Two West Michigan Republicans may be facing off for the state Senate next year due to redistricting. Representative Bob Genetski of Saugatuck has filed paperwork with the state to organize a committee for the newly configured 26th Senate District in 2014, which could put him up against incumbent Republican Tonya Schuitmaker of Lawton. Genetski has a recent drunk driving conviction on his record, which could come into play during a primary.

The new 26th district is comprised of Allegan, Van Buren, and Kentwood and Gaines. Tonya currently represents all of Kalamazoo County and a third of Van Buren County. She lives in the part of Van Buren. Only about 10% of her current district is in the new 26th. However, she previously represented all of Van Buren and a small part of Allegan as a state rep.

She is widely expected to run in the new 26th, though this has not been announced officially. If she does, the new 20th will be open. The likely match-up there would be Republican state rep. Margaret O'Brien versus democrat state rep. Sean McCann. On the other hand, if Tonya wants to avoid a primary, she could run in the 20th, which would discourage O'Brien (and possibly McCann) from running.

Genetski is a solid conservative in the legislature. Tonya usually votes conservative, but with some exceptions. Genetski has a better geographic base, as Allegan is larger than Van Buren and central to the district. But Tonya is an incumbent, which allows her to raise a lot more money. If they face each other, Tonya would be the favorite, but Genetski could win if he could do well in Allegan, the part of Kent, and win Tea Party support.

Their ratings come from a libertarian perspective that conservatives will disagree with on some issues. We have a good rating on homeschool rights (#9). But our gun control rating is surprisingly bad (#41).

There is controversy about the plan, but it is all about the trees that would have to be cut down to build the dining hall. There doesn't seem to be any controversy about whether the building itself is a good idea. All the article says about this is

"At the same time, the president announced last year that we would move aggressively to upgrade dining and residence halls on an aggressive time table," Roland said. "It will make campus living more attractive and boost enrollment. Students have a level of expectations for their living arrangements when they come to college."

The Valleys already have separate dining halls. They could be renovated if necessary. Does it really make sense to spend millions to make dorms more luxurious? Another problem is that in the plans shown in the article, the new dining hall doesn't appear to be connected to any of the three Valleys. This is a big issue in the cold winter months, when it is desirable to be able to eat without having to first put on winter clothes.

Students voted to implement a new student media fee, increasing tuition for every undergraduate student by $5 per semester to support three on-campus media groups. Some 63 percent of the students voted for the fee.

...

About 61 percent of 1,348 students also voted for the Equality in Transportation Initiative of 2013, which asked students to raise tuition by $8 a semester to pay for shuttle transportation to Battle Creek for students in WMU's College of Aviation.

So that means that voter turnout was 5.48% of Western's 24,600 students. Thus 3.45% and 3.34% of Western students voted for these fee increases, but all students will pay them in perpetuity.

Unfortunately, the election played out as this blog expected.

Students already pay fees for the Student Assessment Fund and the Sustainability
Fund. Student fee increases usually pass due to very low turnout elections in
which supporters are more motivated to turn out than opponents.