Ecosystem modelling tools are increasingly applied in the contexts of management advice, policy exploration, and environmental impact analysis under climate change scenarios. The interdisciplinary modelling required integrates a wide range of disciplines - environmental change, biochemistry and hydrology, food web dynamics, and human activities, at local and global scales, and at various time scales. An Achilles heel of this type of interdisciplinary and holistic modelling is input data uncertainty, which propagates and proliferates through the various stages in a model, and may overwhelm significant trends in model results. Because of several compounding factors such as the complex parameterization, their long run times, limited computing facilities, etc., full uncertainty assessments are rarely undertaken, casting doubt on the usefulness of modelling exercises.

Distributed / cloud computing provides the ideal framework for implementing both types of features. This foresight workshop, with scientific leaders in the world of spatial-temporal ecosystem modelling, will conceptualize how these challenges should be included into existing and future modelling complexes.

KEY OBJECTIVES

The workshop will discuss practical cases around the Ecopath with Ecosim (EwE) food web modelling approach, a freely available and open source spatial-temporal ecosystem modelling software package, but overarching recommendations will be made for the field of ecosystem modelling in general, considering the expertise of participants with other modelling approaches (e.g., Atlantis, Osmose, Bayesian species distribution models, etc.).

EXPECTED OUTCOMES

The outcomes of this workshop will be:

A position paper with an overview of how existing ecosystem models incorporate uncertainty, and recommendations for ecological models to encapsulate these capabilities in general

A best practices paper for spatial-temporal modelling using the EwE approach

A step-wise implementation planto implement the uncertainty assessment and spatial fitting tools into the EwE approach. The step-wise approach allows EwE to gradually attain desired functionality in incremental steps, each funded through and providing meaningful content to funding projects.

The foresight workshop is the essential starting point for these efforts, as it provides a unique opportunity to bring together interdisciplinary experts in ecological modelling and Bayesian belief network statistics.

EXPECTED IMPACTS

Participants of the foresight workshop will use the discussed products to seek funding for constructing uncertainty assessment and spatial fitting tools for the EwE, where material developed during and after the workshop will provide direct input to funding proposals. These tools will be made available at no cost to the EwE user community, which consists of an estimated 8000 users in 170 countries worldwide, and will provide a roadmap for addressing spatial-temporal model uncertainty in other ecological models.

*This workshop has set aside 4-5 spaces for interested EuroMarine Members. If you are a member of EuroMarine and would like to inquire about attending, please contact the workshop manager or co-organiser (click on their names for contact details).

**The date of the workshop is yet to be confirmed.

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