Sunday, 1 February 2009

Analyse this

So a lot of players like to use Jukofyork's all-in luck analyser (it's in that thread somewhere), but I don't think much of it, because the luck it analyses is only a small part of how you run.

I find it fun to consider that if you pick up KK on the button, shove and get called by AA, you are more unlucky than he is if you suck out on him. Obv. running hot and cold can be greatly affected by your allins, but running below expectation for big hands is huge. This is not just a question of whether you get enough big hands, but also whether you run them into bigger hands, whether you get them walked in the big blind, whether they get paid off, cracked or whatever.

I suppose it's a comfort to confirm that they keep sucking out on you, but I think that a big danger is that you can think your play is solid, and it's only that that's making you lose or run worse than you hope to, when the truth is that you're not playing well at all.