Ordinary folks lose faith in stocks

Experts say pullback could lead to slower U.S. economic growth

Associated Press

Published 8:44 pm, Thursday, December 27, 2012

Photo: Chris O'Meara

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In this Sept. 12, 2012, photo, Andrew Neitlich poses in front of one his investment homes in Venice, Fla. Neitlich once worked as a financial analyst picking stocks for a mutual fund. During the dot-com crash 12 years ago, Neitlich didn't sell his stocks, but like many others he is selling now. An analysis by The Associated Press finds that individual investors have pulled at least $380 billion from U.S. stock funds since they started selling in April 2007. (AP Photo/Chris O'Meara) less

In this Sept. 12, 2012, photo, Andrew Neitlich poses in front of one his investment homes in Venice, Fla. Neitlich once worked as a financial analyst picking stocks for a mutual fund. During the dot-com crash ... more

Photo: Chris O'Meara

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In this Sept. 12, 2012, photo, Andrew Neitlich poses in front of one his investment homes in Venice, Fla. Neitlich once worked as a financial analyst picking stocks for a mutual fund. During the dot-com crash 12 years ago, Neitlich didn't sell his stocks, but like many others he is selling now. An analysis by The Associated Press finds that individual investors have pulled at least $380 billion from U.S. stock funds since they started selling in April 2007. (AP Photo/Chris O'Meara) less

In this Sept. 12, 2012, photo, Andrew Neitlich poses in front of one his investment homes in Venice, Fla. Neitlich once worked as a financial analyst picking stocks for a mutual fund. During the dot-com crash ... more

Photo: Chris O'Meara

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In this Wednesday, Dec. 26, 2012, photo, Daniel Kryger, left, and Kevin Lodewick Jr., right, work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange in New York. Stocks are edging higher on Thursday as hopes dim that a budget deal will be reached before a deadline at the end of the year. (AP Photo/Kathy Willens) less

In this Wednesday, Dec. 26, 2012, photo, Daniel Kryger, left, and Kevin Lodewick Jr., right, work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange in New York. Stocks are edging higher on Thursday as hopes dim that ... more

Photo: Kathy Willens

Ordinary folks lose faith in stocks

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NEW YORK — Andrew Neitlich is the last person you'd expect to be rattled by the stock market.

He once worked as a financial analyst picking stocks for a mutual fund. He has huddled with dozens of CEOs in his current career as an executive coach. During the dot-com crash 12 years ago, he kept his wits and did not sell.

But he's selling now.

"You have to trust your government. You have to trust other governments. You have to trust Wall Street," says Neitlich, 47. "And I don't trust any of these."

Defying decades of investment history, ordinary Americans are selling stocks for a fifth year in a row. The selling has not let up despite unprecedented measures by the Federal Reserve to persuade people to buy and the come-hither allure of a levitating market. Stock prices have doubled from March 2009, their low point during the Great Recession.

It's the first time ordinary folks have sold during a sustained bull market since relevant records were first kept during World War II, an examination by The Associated Press has found. The AP analyzed money flowing into and out of stock funds of all kinds.

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"People don't trust the market anymore," says financial historian Charles Geisst of Manhattan College. He says a "crisis of confidence" similar to one after the Crash of 1929 will keep people away from stocks for a generation or more.

If the pullback continues, some experts say, it could lead to lower spending by companies, slower U.S. economic growth and perhaps lower gains for those who remain in the market.

Since they started selling in April 2007, eight months before the start of the Great Recession, individual investors have pulled at least $380 billion from U.S. stock funds, a category that includes both mutual funds and exchange-traded funds, according to estimates by the AP. That is the equivalent of all the money they put into the market in the previous five years.

Instead of stocks, they're putting money into bonds because those are widely perceived as safer investments. Individuals have put more than $1 trillion into bond mutual funds alone since April 2007, according to the Investment Company Institute, a trade group representing investment funds.

Selling during both a downturn and a recovery is unusual because Americans almost always buy more than they sell during both.

Since World War II, nine recessions besides the Great Recession have been followed by recoveries lasting at least three years. According to data from the Investment Company Institute, individual investors sold during and after only one of those previous downturns — the one from November 1973 through March 1975. And back then a scary stock drop around the start of the recovery's third year, 1977, gave people ample reason to get out of the market.

The unusual pullback this time has spread to other big investors: public and private pension funds, investment brokerages and state and local governments. These groups have sold a total of $861 billion more than they have bought since April 2007, according to the Federal Reserve. Even foreigners, big purchasers in recent years, are selling now — $16 billion in the 12 months through September.

As these groups have sold, much of the stock buying has fallen to companies. They've bought $656 billion more than they have sold since April 2007. Companies are mostly buying back their own stock.

On Wall Street, the investor revolt has largely been dismissed as temporary. But doubts are creeping in.

A Citigroup research report sent to customers concludes that the "cult of equities" that fueled buying in the past has little chance of coming back soon. Investor blogs speculate about the "death of equities," a line from a famous BusinessWeek cover story in 1979, another time many had seemingly given up on stocks.

The number of shares traded each day has fallen 40 percent from before the recession to a 12-year low, according to the New York Stock Exchange. That's cut into earnings of investment banks and online brokers, which earn fees helping others trade stocks. Initial public offerings, another source of Wall Street profits, are happening at one-third the rate before the recession.

Those counting the small investor out could be wrong however.

Three years after that BusinessWeek story on the "death of equities" ran, in 1982, one of the greatest multi-year stock climbs in history began as the little guys shed their fear and started buying. And so they will surely do again, the bulls argue.

Neitlich, the executive coach, has his doubts. He says he prefers real estate because it's local and is something he can "control."

After the dot-com crash, it seemed as if "things would turn around. Now, I don't know," he said. "The risks are bigger than before."