Abstract: Aims Our major objectives were to 1) identify keystone species within the context of functional groups, 2) develop potential distributional predict ions for keystone species using ecological niche model, 3) confirm factors determining potential distributions of keystone species, and 4) test if the performances of ecological niche model are better than those of a random model and differ in predicting different keystone species. Methods Based on the investigation of 135 plots in a natural tropical forest landscape, we classified woody plant functional groups based on successional status and potential maximum height. Keystone species within each functional group we re identified using a dominance index (DI). We used the genetic algorithm for rule-set prediction (GARP) to estimate the keystone species’ potential distribution and then used the receiver operating characteristics to evaluate predictive performance. Applying multiple linear regression analysis, we identified major factors determining potential distributions of keystone species. Important findings Identification of keystone species within pioneer species, climax shrub and emergent tree functional groups was clearer than within climax subcanopy and climax canopy tree functional groups. Generally, among the eight keystone species, pioneer species Melastoma sanquiueum, Aporosa chinensis and Liquidambar formosana (but not Adinandra hainanensis) have high probability of occurrence in the north, west and southwest regions of Bawangling. However, climax species Psychotria rubra, Ardisia quinquegona and Castanopsis hainanensis (but not Pinus merkusii) have high probability of occurrence in the central, southeast and south regions. Minimum and maximum temperature, mean annual temperature and precipitation, aspect and altitude were the key factors determining potential distributions of keystone species. Evaluation of GARP model’s performance indicated excellent predictive ability of all eight keystone species’ distribution. This study suggests the DI method is more suitable to identify keystone species with in woody plant functional groups in which a single or a few species are dominant. Findings will assist decision makers in planning conservation and management policies in tropical rainforest areas.