"India Can't Possibly Be Growing at Over 7%"

Feb 18, 2016

Dear Reader,

This is a special edition of the Diary. I was recently interviewed by the Inner Circle newsletter of Bonner & Partners based in the United States.

I am reproducing the complete interview here. These answers are generally themes that I write about and they will give you a good summary of my views on various issues that face Indian economy right now.

Happy Reading!Vivek Kaul

Inner Circle (IC):Investors expected big things from India's new prime minister, Narendra Modi, who was sworn into office in May 2014. For a time, at least, those expectations were reflected in a rising Indian stock market. The MSCI India Index surged 24% in 2014. But the "Modi Bounce" peaked early last year. Since then, Indian stocks are down 17% [they have fallen further since the interview happened]. I know you've been skeptical of Modi's ability to push through tough economic reforms. Is he going to prove you wrong in 2016?

Vivek Kaul (VK): When Modi came to power, there was this expectation that he would start what we in India call the "second generation" of economic reforms. first generation of reforms started in 1991 under prime minister P. V. Narasimha Rao. These were largely focused on opening up product markets - cars, mobile phones, etc. You couldn't find many of these things in India in the early 1990s, when these reforms were underway. Human desire was limited to buying a Bajaj scooter...or, at best, an Ambassador car.

The other two big, important markets in India - land and labour - were left more or less untouched by this first wave of reforms. So, there was this expectation that Modi would tackle reforms in these two areas. Also, in the run-up to the election, Modi promised "maximum governance and minimum government." The maximum governance part is debatable. But the minimum government part has yet to materialize.

IC: Why do you say that?

VK: The government continues to run an extensive network of loss-making businesses. It runs a telephone company that makes huge losses. It runs an airline that makes losses. It is into running hotels. It is into making scooters. There's a long list of state-owned companies that make losses.

And the government continues to take on those losses.

There has been no effort at all to sell those companies or even shut them down. In fact, the Modi government has committed to shutting down just one state-run company - that makes watches! All the other companies continue to operate. Close to where I live, there is a company called the National Bicycle Corporation of India. The company continues to exist.

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IC: Is there a lot of corruption and grift going on in these state-run firms? Is that why the government isn't doing more to shut them down?

VK:There is corruption everywhere in government... in India and elsewhere. To that extent, I'm sure there is corruption in these state-run businesses. But are they surviving because of corruption? I don't think so. They are surviving because the government wants them to survive.

IC: What keeps them going, then? Why isn't the government shutting them down?

VK: You know what happens when an unpopular decision is made by the government? There are protests. The media catches on. There's always a human interest story involved. You know the type of thing - "What will these guys do?"... "They've been working here for 30 years"..."They can't do anything else"... and so on... and so on.

Any government that's willing to take these state-run companies on has to be prepared to meet these protests head on. For example, say the government decided to shut down our national airline, Air India. The opposition parties would portray it as a national shame... or a national scandal.... then some leftist thinkers will latch on to it. The point is that if the government wants to push through these kinds of reforms, it needs to be firm about it. And that's not happening.

IC: Why can't Idia just chug along as a centrally planned economy? There are people who'd argue that this model of growth is perfectly okay.

VK: Let me give you a concrete example of what I mean...India's neighbour Bangladesh has a population of about 150 million. But it exports more textiles than India, which has a population almost eight times larger. That's because an average Indian textile firm employs only about eight people.

As a business, once you hit double digits when it comes to number of employees, you need to follow so many regulations and deal with so much red tape, it just doesn't make any sense. So, you continue to stay small.

That's less efficient at a company level. It's also a major roadblock for the Indian economy as a whole. Because you create employment - and this has been observed the world over - when small companies become big companies. That's how you employ many, many people. Once businesses are already big, they don't take on new employees. They even fire people, due to earnings pressure, a squeeze on margins, and competition from leaner, smaller outfits.

IC: Yes...

VK: So, India needs small companies to become big companies. For that to happen, we need better physical infrastructure - more ports, electricity that is reliable, and better roads. We also need better labour laws to make it easier for entrepreneurs to grow their businesses. The Modi government hasn't delivered on that, except perhaps for roads, where there seems to be some activity happening. That's bad for job growth... and it's bad for the economy as a whole.

IC: What else should U.S. investors know about India before deciding whether to invest there?

VK: One big theme I've been covering for my readers is the problem with how India calculates its economic growth. The Indian finance minister, Arun Jaitley - who is more or less the official spokesperson for the Modi government - recently boasted that India could shoulder some of the global growth contribution previously made by China.

His comment followed news that Chinese economic growth fell to a 25-year low of 6.9% in 2015. That means, going by the official figures at least, that India is the fastest-growing major economy in the world. From July to September 2015, Indian GDP grew at a pace of 7.4%.

IC: Can you give me an example of what you mean?

VK: Most Indians still can't afford to buy a car. So, new two-wheeler sales are a better indicator of consumer demand. And two-wheeler sales have gone up by just 1% over the past year. Drill into those numbers a bit further and you'll find that, although scooter sales have gone up, motorbike sales have gone down.

IC: Why is that important?

VK: Because people in rural India - a major chunk of the population - tend to buy motorbikes instead of scooters because the roads are so bad in rural India that scooters just aren't an option. That tells us things are not so well at the consumer demand level. Same goes for tractor sales, another good economic indicator for demand in rural India. Tractor sales are down by about 13% over the past year. And liquor sales are also down. Which again tells you that consumer demand is weak.

IC: Give us some more numbers...

VK: Or take railway freight volumes - a good proxy for industrial demand. Railway freight has gone up by only 1% over the course of the past year. This tells us that industrial demand continues to be subdued.

And bank loan growth, another good proxy for consumer demand, has also been in single digits this year - at about 8-9%. That's around half of what it used to be until a few years back. This tells you that India can't possibly be growing at over 7%, as the government claims.

IC: Are you saying that the Indian government is fudging the data?

VK: Many investors have come to that conclusion about official Chinese economic data. I don't think the Indian government is fudging the data. That would be giving too much credit to our bureaucrats.

What happened is that last year, India changed the way it calculates GDP. Even though you'll read in the mainstream press that this new way of crunching the numbers is in line with international norms, something is not right about it. The official numbers just don't reflect what we're seeing happen on the ground.

IC: Five percent growth is still fast when compared to the rest of the world. A lot of countries would love to be growing at that kind of clip.

VK: That's true. But for India, it's not good enough. A significant part of the Indian population continues to live in poverty. Up until the recent slowdown, China grew at an average pace of about 10% for roughly 15 years. Only because China was able to grow at the kind of pace was it able to pull so many people out of poverty.

The worrying thing in India is that close to 13 million people enter the workforce each year. And that's set to continue until 2030. This is what we call our "demographic dividend." But if this dividend is not taken care of, it could turn around pretty quickly and hurt us. What your readers need to be aware of is that there aren't enough jobs right now for that to happen.

Indian economic data, as I said, can be sketchy. But from what we know, the rate of population growth is outpacing the rate of job growth in India. As one of the speakers at the recent Equitymaster Conference warned, if that continues to happen, the reaction from India's poor could make the Arab Spring could look like a joke.

I'm not saying your readers shouldn't invest a portion of their portfolio in Indian stocks. But they need to be aware that there's a lot more to the growth story here than they'll typically read about in the mainstream press. And in my view, at least, the real story on the ground is a lot less bullish for the economy and for the stock market than most people believe.

IC:Thanks, Vivek.

VK: You're welcome.

Vivek Kaul is the Editor of the Diary and The Vivek Kaul Letter. Vivek is a writer who has worked at senior positions with the Daily News and Analysis (DNA) and The Economic Times, in the past. He is the author of the Easy Money trilogy. The latest book in the trilogy Easy Money: The Greatest Ponzi Scheme Ever and How It Is Set to Destroy the Global Financial System was published in March 2015. The books were bestsellers on Amazon. His writing has also appeared in The Times of India, The Hindu, The Hindu Business Line, Business World, Business Today, India Today, Business Standard, Forbes India, Deccan Chronicle, The Asian Age, Mutual Fund Insight, Wealth Insight, Swarajya, Bangalore Mirror among others.

Disclaimer: The views mentioned above are of the author only. Data and charts, if used, in the article have been sourced from available information and have not been authenticated by any statutory authority. The author and Equitymaster do not claim it to be accurate nor accept any responsibility for the same. The views constitute only the opinions and do not constitute any guidelines or recommendation on any course of action to be followed by the reader. Please read the detailed Terms of Use of the web site.

Hejamadi : The armchair critics like Vivek Kaul is wasting time of the readers by using statistical jugglary.

Real investors - multinationals, foreign governments, Indian corporates and general investors - have reposed confidence in the sincere effort and openness of Indian Government. Results on the policy initiatives does take time. Vivek Kaul is ignoring the impact of slowdown in global economies, low oil prices, past mess created by UPA Government while having his myopic idea on the economy. See the groundreality.

It has become a fashion for you media guys only to indulge in Modi bashing. Do something constructive to our country. With all other political parties and you media people trying to pull our Prime Minister down, Modi is doing the best within the constraints imposed. Where were you when we had a maun PM earlier. We need to provide employment to a huge workforce. What do we do to our poor farmers who are suffering from loan sharks? A strong India is in the interest of everyone and let us all work towards this goal.

Indians do not trust themself! Foriegners has great hope in India story but not Indians! Forieghners have great respect for Indian talent but not Indians! Foriegners have great respect for Indian culture and values but not Indians. For Indians need to know to value themself and thrust them...This article is another negative attitude of Indian towards India, this is normal. The poiltics and media of this country in the name of freedom has demolished the values and respects in past 50 years

Disappointed !! I used to be a fan of this author, however I find that he keeps repeating same stuff over and over. Many of the points above have been mentioned in earlier posts. Please invest time in research to ensure every write-up that gets published is offering something new to readers. Don't waste our time.

It is true, the GDP growth rate of 7% plus does not ring true. The ground realities simply does not square up with that kind of growth. Where are the jobs? Why do we see weak numbers from the corporate sector? Why industry keeps clamouring for lower interest rates? Why exports keep slipping? Why housing starts have fallen? If it was really 7% things would not look so bleak. I think the 7% growth rate is more to do about statistical jugglery.

Kaushik basu Imf chief economist who has beenAt one time economic advisor of goi saidOn Ndtv yesterday that he has faithAnd trust in Indias Gdp Nos and its construct.?What is your reaction to his opinion.

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