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Formful Preps Fulfill Hopes, Clarify Derby Picture

By Indulto

The final two virtual WAYI (Win-And-You’re-In) Kentucky Derby have been run, and one of them produced the leapfrog result anticipated. In a display of speed and stamina suggesting Triple Crown superiority, the Baffert-trained Bodemeister blasted his way to stardom and the starting gate on the first Saturday in May.

The result was as popular as it was predictable as the favored Bodemeister went from a 9-way tie at 109th place in earnings (including females) to 14th, just below the horse he just defeated – second-choice stablemate, Secret Circle. Ignoring the 3 top-earning fillies, the latter moved up to 10th among males by finishing second in the Arkansas Derby ahead of his conqueror in 11th place.

More importantly, from the standpoint of this experiment, Secret Circle and Bodemeister now rank 7th and 11th in BC-PTS, respectively, as well as 7th and 13th in TR-PTS. Already eligible on the basis of his juvenile virtual WAYI victory, Sabercat, finished third to move from 9th to 8th among males in earnings, and to 24th and 22nd, respectively, in BC-PTS and TR-PTS.

In the Bluegrass, the favored, front-running Hansen was defeated by the stretch-running, second-choice, Dullahan. The former stayed atop the earnings list while the latter improved from 14th to 4th position. The only other already- eligible contender, Hero of Order, finished last off only 12 days rest following his own should-have-been WAYI victory. He is now in the doubtful Derby starter category for which names are italicized in the charts below.

The changes in positions on the points charts for Hansen and Dullihan are more dramatic. Dullihan caught Hansen on BC-PTS, going from 12th and 7th, respectively, to a three-way tie with Drill for 3rd. Hansen remained ahead on TR-PTS at 4th to 5th for his rival. Creative Cause and Union Rags remain the top two points-qualified on both systems while remaining 5th and 3rd in earnings, respectively.

I’ll Have Another went from 4th to 6th on both BCPTS and TR-PTS while going from 10th to 13th in earnings. Gemologist and Alpha are now tied for 9th on BC-PTS, but are 9th and 7th, respectively, on TR-PTS. The former has almost twice the earnings of the latter at 7th and 17th, respectively. With the exception of Sabercat and Hero of Order, all the above-mentioned qualify on both earnings and points, and represent the top-tier of this year’s Derby Qualifiers.

Despite his disappointing sixth in the Bluegrass, Prospective’s 16th ranking in earnings ensure that only his connections can count him out. The unheralded 3yo with the most upside may be that race’s third place finisher, Gung Ho, who is presently the most likely candidate for a case of Drosselmeyer-itis

Alternative Rankings Comparison for Kentucky Derby Eligibility

Through Apr. 14th, 2012 *** EARNGS Seq ***

Horse

Earnings
Total

Earnings
Rank

BC
PTS
Rank

TR
PTS
Rank

TR
PTS
Top

# G S
WPS

1.Hansen

$1,550,000

1

8

7

10

4

2.Daddy Long Legs

$1,294,030

3

52*

53

7

1

3.Union Rags

$1,170,000

4

2

2

10

5

4.Dullahan

$855,000

5

6

8

10

3

5.Creative Cause

$836,000

7

1

1

10

7

6.Wrote (IRE)

$756,630

8

22

24

10

2

7.Gemologist

$703,855

10

14

17

10

2

8.Sabercat

$701,429

11

41*

40

6

2

9.Take Charge Indy

$698,400

12

23

28

10

2

10.Secret Circle

$670,000

13

12

12

8

4

11.Bodemeister

$660,000

14

17

20

10

2

12.Hero of Order

$617,375

15

53*

54

7

1

13.I'll Have Another

$601,000

16

10

11

10

3

14.Daddy Nose Best

$545,558

17

35*

45

4

3

15.Yang Tse Kiang (FR)

$422,211

19

81*

76

5

1

16.Liaison

$393,000

20

26*

33

10

1

17.Alpha

$380,000

21

15

14

8

3

18.Prospective

$367,327

23

37*

43

7

2

19.Trinniberg

$324,500

24

13

13

8

4

20.Done Talking

$311,000

25

95*

98

4

1

21.Drill

$300,000

27

7

6

10

3

22.Went the Day Well

$282,000

31

97*

100

4

1

23.Rousing Sermon

$270,000

32

31*

23

8

3

24.Mark Valeski

$260,000

36

43*

41

5

2

25.El Padrino

$250,000

37

38*

37

7

2

26.Excaper

$240,736

38

36*

36

8

2

27.Reveron

$220,000

40

45*

42

8

2

28.Optimizer

$184,708

46

24

19

6

3

29.Majestic City

$170,000

50

20

15

8

3

30.Currency Swap

$150,000

54

28*

35

10

1

31.O'Prado Again

$120,000

66

56*

57

7

1

32.Jack's in the Deck

$105,000

71

40*

39

7

2

33.State of Play

$100,000

77

46*

51

7

2

34.Overdriven

$90,000

87

57*

58

7

1

My Miss Aurelia (f)

$1,350,000

2

3

4

10

3

Stephanie's Kitten (f)

$850,446

6

9

9

10

3

Grace Hall (f)

$740,000

9

4

3

10

4

Weemissfrankie (f)

$522,120

18

5

5

10

3

Believe You Can (f)

$369,734

22

32*

30

7

2

On Fire Baby (f)

$286,729

29

16

16

7

3

Killer Graces (f)

$284,200

30

21

25

10

3

Willa B Awesome (f)

$264,000

35

18

21

10

2

Reneesgotzip (f)

$200,000

43

11

10

8

3

Eden's Moon (f)

$186,000

45

19

18

10

2

A 3-way tie at 13th on BC-PTS exists for Wrote, Take Charge Indy, and Optimizer who rank 15th, 16th, and 12th, on TR-PTS, respectively, and 6th, 9th, and 28th, respectively, in earnings. Optimizer is now doubtful after finishing 9th in the AK Derby.

Lone G1 winners, Liaison and the doubtful Currency Swap are tied for 16th and 18th on BC-PTS and TR-PTS, respectively. Liason’s juvenile virtual WAYI victory has already assured his eligibility at 16th in earnings. With four qualified potential starters, Baffert may decide that Drill’s finishing second in the ungraded mile race on the AK Derby undercard defaults his career to sprinting like Trinniberg. In any case, both are now doubtful.

Daddy Nose Best will enter the gate at 14th in earnings, 19th in BC-PTS, and 26th in TR-PTS. Daddy Long Legs will load at 2nd in earnings, 27th in BC-PTS, and 28th in TR-PTS. Done Talking will step in at 20th in earnings, and 33rd in both BC-PTS and TR-PTS. Went the Day Well would walk in at 22nd in earnings and 34th in both BC-PTS and TR-PTS.

Should a sufficient contingent among the eight doubtfuls defect, the door would open for Rousing Sermon, Mark Valeski, El Padrino, and/or Reveron who rank 23rd, 24th, 25th, and 27th in earnings, respectively, but much lower in points, though higher than Daddy Long Legs, Done Talking, and Went the Day Well. Reveron is reportedly still eyeing the $120K winner’s share of the Lexington purse which would qualify him with $340K in earnings (moving him into 19th behind Prospective). A victory there would also put him in ties for 12th and 14th on BC-PTS and TR-PTS, respectively.

Rousing Sermon currently rates 14th and 18th on TR-PTS and BC-PTS, respectively. El Padrino ranks 20th and 22nd on TR-PTS and BC-PTS, respectively. Both would fare better if eligibility were points-based. Whether or not he runs, it seems likely that El Padrino will wind up the poster boy for Derby eligibility reform.

One measure of points effectiveness will be how points leaders fare against earnings leaders who are not among points leaders. I suspect points leaders Creative Cause and Union Rags are stronger than their final preps indicate and I intend to use them both in any superfectas I play. By any standard, the 2012 KY Derby promises to have the strongest 20-horse field in its history -- not because earnings-based eligibility is the most effective -- but because this 3yo crop is exceptional. Hopefully the curse of the rail post position does not befall Triple Crown hopeful, Bodemeister, as it did for Baffert’s previous potential champion, Lookin’ For Lucky.

Alternative Rankings Comparison for Kentucky Derby Eligibility

Through Apr. 14th 2012 *** TR PTS Seq ***

Horse

Earnings
Total

Earnings
Rank

BC
PTS
Rank

TR
PTS
Rank

TR
PTS
Top

TR
PTS
Total

Creative Cause

$836,000

7

1

1

10

49

Union Rags

$1,170,000

4

2

2

10

38

Drill

$300,000

27

7

6

10

25

Hansen

$1,550,000

1

8

7

10

24

Dullahan

$855,000

5

6

8

10

23

I'll Have Another

$601,000

16

10

11

10

22

Secret Circle

$670,000

13

12

12

8

21

Trinniberg

$324,500

24

13

13

8

21

Alpha

$380,000

21

15

14

8

20

Majestic City

$170,000

50

20

15

8

18

Gemologist

$703,855

10

14

17

10

17

Optimizer

$184,708

46

24

19

6

16

Bodemeister

$660,000

14

17

20

10

15

Rousing Sermon

$270,000

32

31*

23

8

14

Wrote (IRE)

$756,630

8

22

24

10

13

Take Charge Indy

$698,400

12

23

28

10

12

Liaison

$393,000

20

26*

33

10

10

Currency Swap

$150,000

54

28*

35

10

10

Excaper

$240,736

38

36*

36

8

10

El Padrino

$250,000

37

38*

37

7

10

Jack's in the Deck

$105,000

71

40*

39

7

10

Sabercat

$701,429

11

41*

40

6

10

Mark Valeski

$260,000

36

43*

41

5

10

Reveron

$220,000

40

45*

42

8

9

Prospective

$367,327

23

37*

43

7

9

Daddy Nose Best

$545,558

17

35*

45

4

9

State of Play

$100,000

77

46*

51

7

8

Daddy Long Legs

$1,294,030

3

52*

53

7

7

Hero of Order

$617,375

15

53*

54

7

7

O'Prado Again

$120,000

66

56*

57

7

7

Overdriven

$90,000

87

57*

58

7

7

Yang Tse Kiang (FR)

$422,211

19

81*

76

5

5

Done Talking

$311,000

25

95*

98

4

4

Went the Day Well

$282,000

31

97*

100

4

4

Grace Hall (f)

$740,000

9

4

3

10

30

My Miss Aurelia (f)

$1,350,000

2

3

4

10

27

Weemissfrankie (f)

$522,120

18

5

5

10

26

Stephanie's Kitten (f)

$850,446

6

9

9

10

23

Reneesgotzip (f)

$200,000

43

11

10

8

23

On Fire Baby (f)

$286,729

29

16

16

7

18

Eden's Moon (f)

$186,000

45

19

18

10

16

Willa B Awesome (f)

$264,000

35

18

21

10

14

Killer Graces (f)

$284,200

30

21

25

10

13

Believe You Can (f)

$369,734

22

32*

30

7

11

Cumulative earnings and finish point totals in Graded stakes as 2YOs and 3YOs through this past weekend are reflected in the charts above.

The top 24 earnings–qualified horses and the top 24 points-qualified

Horses are collectively represented in 4 sections of each preceding chart.

1) The top 24 earnings-qualified males of which 11 would not qualify on points.
2) The next 10 earnings-ranked males with highest point totals.
3) The top 5 earnings-qualified females of which 1 would not qualify on points.
4) The next 5 earnings-ranked female qualifying on points.

In the second and third charts, 3) contains the top 9 points-qualified females, and 4) the remaining earnings qualified female

Horses appear in earnings rank sequence in the first chart, in BC-PTS rank sequence in the second, and in TR-PTS rank sequence in the third.

In the first chart, the right hand column shows the number of graded stakes in which a horse finished at least third. That column shows the BC-PTS ratings total in the second chart, and the TR_PTS ratings total in the third.

Note that rankings for all three charts reflect eligibility regardless of gender, but are grouped within gender. In the second chart and third charts, 12 males and 9 females would qualify on both their BC-PTS total and their TR-PTS total.

In a point system used by the Breeders' Cup (BC-PTS) to measure the value of finish positions across graded levels, the place and show points at each grade level match the win and place points at the next lower level.

BC-PTS

W

P

S

G1

10

6

4

G2

6

4

2

G3

4

2

1

In another point system (TR-PTS) defined at the “Thoroughbred Report” website (http://www.thoroughbredreport.com), finishing 2nd is also worth more than finishing 1st at the next lower grade level.

TR-PTS

W

P

S

G1

10

8

6

G2

7

5

3

G3

4

2

1

Each TR-PTS value is unique and will used to indicate a horse’s top–rated finish in any graded stakes race as well as to determine a TR_PTS rating. It will also be used as the primary tie-breaker in ranking identical TR_PTS or BC-PTS ratings. The secondary tie-breaker will be the number of Win, Place, or Show (WPS) finishes in graded stakes.

This is the latest in a series that compares actual and proposed Kentucky Derby eligibility rankings as they emerge weekly while potential Derby runners race their way into contention for a berth in the starting gate. Currently, an entrant's eligibility is based on the total purse money it earned in graded stakes races prior to the Derby.

The idea of instead using cumulative points assigned to an entrant's placing at the grade level in each of the same races is not new. However, we believe it is a novel approach to actually generate multiple rankings from carefully considered alternative weighted point systems for continuous review by interested parties.

Do you have a take on the state of the game, a favorite race horse, trainer or jockey? Share your ideas. Show the racing industry and media the folly of their ways. The HRI Readers Blog: "When you lose it, Use it." Submit your blog to HRI Webmaster.