Wednesday, January 11, 2012

How the Hyundai Was Won

One of the main themes about 2011 Pro Golf Synopsis is that most parts of the game are important to some level. The question is more along the lines of the level of importance. For example, assuming everything stays the same, if I improve my fairway bunker play it will have a positive impact on my score over time. However, I would have a greater impact if I improved my Danger Zone play.

Let's take a look at Stricker's ranking in the metrics (based out of 27 players in the field)

Advanced Total Driving: 12thPutts Gained: 11thShort Game Play: 7th

Birdie Zone: 6thSafe Zone: 9thDanger Zone: 4th

While his metrics were not particularly mind blowing, he did have the lowest average ranking of the entire field. Furthermore, he had the lowest 'maximum' ranking (Advanced Total Driving).

It's funny in a sense because this week we had heard how important putting was and Stricker finished 11th in Putts Gained, which was more or less 'average' for the field. We also were told that essentially the Birdie Zone was the 'Money Zone' by pundits like Brandel Chamblee, yet Stricker finished 6th in that category.

Chamblee termed the proximity to the cup from 50-125 yards to be the 'Money Zone' or to that effect. However, there are a couple of major flaws:

A. It does not account for golfers who have more shots from a closer distance to the cup. For instance, if Gary Woodland and Scott Piercy each have 100 shots from the 50-125 yard range, Woodland may wind up with a closer proximity to the cup. However, if all of Woodland's shots were actually inside 80 yards while 50% of Piercy's shots were from 100-125 yards, Woodland is not necessarily better from 50-125 yards...he just had shorter distances to the cup. The metrics in the 2011 Pro Golf Synopsis 'cancel out' that yardage discrepancy.

B. It still does not have as strong of a correlation to Adjusted Scoring Average as the Danger Zone play does.

The player who finished 2nd in average ranking was the 2nd place finisher, Martin Laird:

Here's Laird's rankings in the metrics at the Hyundai:

Advanced Total Driving: 2ndPutts Gained: 10thShort Game Play: 1st

Birdie Zone: 5thSafe Zone: 16thDanger Zone: 21st

The problem for Laird was Danger Zone play. However, I think he was able to finish 2nd, despite poor Danger Zone play..because he drove the ball so well and his Short Game was the best in the field. Thus, when he missed a green from the Danger Zone, he was getting up and down anyway.

Since there were only 27 players in the field, I will go thru the rankings of each metric for this week: