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Lucky with the high wind shear impacting its development, this could of been real nasty. Still could turn out to be a big rain maker. JTWC and the Ventusky site differ at which point it crosses the peninsula.

Exactly the point I was going to make. That thing hit just before I arrived here and I don't remember anything as bad hitting the South since. Fortunately Songkhla Lake is still relatively low for this time of the year. You can already see the swirling effect of the storm here.

The graphic shown in the original story, which shows a landfall near Pak Panang in NST, seems irresponsible to me.

Ah, but that was a Cat 1 Typhoon, no longer a Tropical Storm whoever did the research for the article probably just Googled 'Gulf of Thailand Tropical Storm' and got 1962.

I see Tropical Depression 36 is now a named Tropical Storm Pabuk, this far out there's a fair degree of uncertainty as to where it will end up, the Tropical Storm Risk website gives probability plots, below is the 120hr tropical storm wind probabilities.

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Interaction with land and wind shear will keep the wind velocity down but low lying areas are looking at a big flood potential with some models predicting 3 - 5 inches a rain per 3 hr period. Probably pass south of here in Hua Hin, but still planning for power loss and restricted travel due to flooding of streets.

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I don't think there have been enough similar systems to allow for accurate forecasting based on modelling. I think those forecasting are just taking into account the rotation of the earth and the high pressure systems (see isobar charts) that could be pulling it north.

The worst-case scenario is that this thing veers north and hits near Bangkok, with a storm surge and flooding. If that happens it could also pick up a lot of energy in the shallow gulf and possibly even become a true typhoon. Fortunately this would not coincide with a full moon, but it could still be really bad.