Dan Hodges is a former Labour Party and GMB trade union official, and has managed numerous independent political campaigns. He writes about Labour with tribal loyalty and without reservation. You can read Dan's recent work here

Voters are starting to like Ed Miliband. But they still don't think he's prime minister material

Last week Ed Miliband secured the distinction of winning the Spectator Political Speech of the Year Award, for his Energy Price freeze pledge at the Labour Party conference. He wasn’t there to accept the award in person, ostensibly because he had a prior engagement. But my suspicion is he was a little wary of being seen walking into the ballroom of the Savoy Hotel. The Savoy isn’t really a “One Nation” hang-out.

Anyway, his no-show turned out to be a blessing in disguise, because Ed ended up sending a video message instead. And he knocked it out of the park. He was witty, he was self-deprecating and he showed wonderful comic timing.

Most crucially of all, he showed he could play the room – consisting of an assortment of hard-bitten politicos, advisors and hacks – pitch-perfect. He was at ease operating inside the Westminster beltway.

That moment demonstrated that Ed Miliband is actually a much better politician than many people (myself included) give him credit for. In fact, I suspect he’s a much better politician than he gives himself credit for.

Since his election Miliband has tried to be the anti-politician. Radical; insurgent.

Partly that’s an effort to align himself with what he feels is the austerity zeitgeist. Partly it's an attempt to differentiate himself from his consummate – but flawed – political predecessors, Tony Blair and Gordon Brown. And partly it’s because we live in an era where being the anti-politician is seen to represent the smart politics.

It’s a strategy that’s finally bearing some low hanging fruit. Yesterday there was a lot of excitement on Twitter about the latest ICM poll in the Guardian which showed Labour’s leader ahead of David Cameron on four of the seven key character attributes. “Understands people like me” – 11 point lead. “More honest than most politicians” – three points. “Is backed by his party” – one point. “More style than substance” – 13 point deficit (meaning, I suppose, less style than substance). Both men were tied on “Has courage to say what is right”.

But there were two areas where Miliband lagged behind, and they were significant ones. When asked who would be “best in a crisis” people backed David Cameron 39 per cent to Miliband’s 23 per cent, the biggest margin on any of the questions. And on the deal-breaker, “Who would make the best Prime Minister?”, Cameron came out on top 32 per cent to 27 per cent.

As I say, these results sent Twitter into a bit of a tizzy yesterday. But if you think about it, they are exactly what you would expect, given the strategies being pursued by the respective party leaders. Ed Miliband is playing the anti-politician, demonstrating empathy with ordinary people, and showing a lack of political “side”. David Cameron is presenting himself as the archetypal political statesman. So people see him as just that: the person to turn to in a crisis, and the person to turn to when selecting a Prime Minister.

Which in turn raises a very simple question. Why can’t Ed Miliband, Ed Miliband’s aides and Ed Miliband’s supporters see the glaring problem with his strategy?

At the next election people will be asked to choose a Prime Minister, not a best man. And of all the traits that feature most when people make the choice of a Prime Minister, one stands out. As the Guardian itself acknowledges, “[David Cameron] retains a significant edge on one attribute which pollsters regard as particularly important when it comes to the decision about whom voters want to see in charge of the country: 39 per cent regard Cameron as "good in a crisis", and although that figure has slipped from 50 in December 2011 and 48 in December 2012, he is still substantially ahead of Miliband, who is rated as good in a crisis by a mere 23 per cent of the electorate. That is marginally better than his 21 per cent score on this count in December 2011, but actually worse than his 28 per cent rating in December 2012. Until Labour's leader can improve on this score, he may continue to struggle on the crucial question of who makes the best prime minister”.

So Ed’s doing just great. Except when it comes to the being Prime Minister bit. Which is actually the whole point of the exercise.

And here is the great irony that lies at the heart of Ed Miliband’s political strategy. In order to present himself as the anti-politician, Ed Miliband is becoming too overtly political.

Over the past few weeks I’ve spoken to several Labour shadow cabinet members, MPs and advisors about Labour’s energy price freeze policy. To a man and a woman they say the same thing. “It’s nuts, and it won’t work. But it’s great politics”.

A couple of years ago Ed Miliband was being sold as the conviction politician. Now he’s being sold as the arch populist. First Labour was going to hold down energy prices. Then last week it was water prices. This week there has already been talk about tackling phone bills.

All of which is great. It’s convincing people Ed Miliband is on their side. But it’s not convincing people Ed Miliband is their next Prime Minister. And each time Ed Miliband announces another microwave policy, it just reinforces the impression that this is a man for the easy times, not the tough times.

Contrast that with the strategy now being pursued by Downing Street. Last week ministers made the staggering announcement that shipbuilding at Portsmouth would end, to safeguard shipbuilding jobs in Glasgow. I say staggering, because the decision was made by a Conservative Prime Minister. Where is the politics in that? A Tory Prime Minister placing southern seats at jeopardy to protect jobs and seats in Labour’s heartland?

The politics, of course, lies in the Scottish independence referendum. But again, how does a “No” vote help David Cameron and his party? If the Scots vote “Yes” the Conservative party will be in power for ever.

It helps because this is where David Cameron has decided to draw the dividing line between himself and Ed Miliband. He is going pitch himself as the man who takes the big decisions, not the politically expedient decisions.

He intends to go into the next election as the Prime Minister that secured the Union. Who finally decided to lay to rest to the issue of Britain’s place in Europe. Who brought the UK economy safely out of it most dangerous crisis for a generation. In other words, he’s going to leave the politics to the anti-politician.

Look at his speech yesterday to the Mayor’s banquet. David Cameron bowled up to the City in white tie and tails and told the assembled audience of corporate chieftains he was backing a new wave of “buccaneering spirit”. For a man who is regularly caricatured as an out of touch toff, these were seemingly suicidal optics. But he doesn’t care. His message was “It’s time to go for it”. And he intends to go for it as well.

Ed Miliband may be right. When it comes to the crunch people may just pocket an 18-month energy price freeze, and wave him into No 10. But I suspect deep down, when he sits in his front room and looks at that Spectator Political Speech of the Year Award adorning his mantlepiece, he’ll start to wonder if being the anti-politician represents smart politics after all.