Giuliani's Grip on Hispanic Voters Seen Loosening

By ADAM NAGOURNEY

Published: April 24, 1997

Correction Appended

Discontent with Mayor Rudolph W. Giuliani among Hispanic voters -- a segment of the electorate that was critical to his slim victory in 1993 -- appears to be on the rise. That is creating a small but potentially significant crack in the Mayor's political foundation, one that he is trying to patch even as Democrats try to exploit it.

Interviews with politicians, scholars and voters suggest Mr. Giuliani is paying a price with Hispanic voters for Republican attacks on social programs and immigration, notwithstanding his efforts to distance himself from some of those initiatives. The Mayor has been damaged as well, according to several Hispanic political leaders, by his run-ins with influential Hispanic figures, among them Ramon C. Cortines, the former schools chancellor.

Most of all, though, Mr. Giuliani's position with Hispanic voters has been diminished by unhappiness with his handling of public schools, an issue repeatedly cited by many Hispanic parents concerned about their children's future economic security.

''Our community has been the hardest-hit with all these policies that we're seeing that he's very much identified with,'' said Angelo Falcon, president of the Institute for Puerto Rican Policy, a nonpartisan advocacy group. John H. Mollenkopf, director of the Center for Urban Research at the City University of New York's Graduate Center, said Mr. Giuliani is perceived as ''somebody who's been against services that the Hispanic community relies on deeply.''

In the latest New York Times poll, conducted from March 1 to March 6, Hispanic residents offered a decidedly bleak view on a variety of potentially formative issues in this year's election, ranging from their perception of the quality of life to the economy to the state of public schools. The percentage of Hispanic respondents who said they disapproved of the way Mr. Giuliani had handled his job increased from 33 percent in June of 1994 to 41 percent when the poll was conducted. And 63 percent of Hispanic residents said it was time for a new Mayor, a significant number that runs counter to the generally positive assessments of Mr. Giuliani among white and affluent voters.

These findings were echoed in conversations in recent days with Hispanic voters who supported Mr. Giuliani in 1993 -- partly out of unhappiness with David N. Dinkins, and partly in response to Mr. Giuliani's call to return social order to the city -- but are now unsure if they will again.

''I am not happy with Mayor Giuliani,'' said Minerva Gonzalez, the owner of a flower market in East Harlem who supported the Mayor in 1993. ''We've been here in this country, my ancestors, almost 50 years. I think we deserve better. We are a hard-working people.''

Even drops in the crime rate have not eased doubts of people like Anna Caballero, a 34-year-old theater usher. Ms. Cabellero, a Democrat who voted for Mr. Giuliani in 1993, said, ''I don't like the situation with the Medicare and the Medicaid for senior citizens. And it's still hard to look for a job out there.''

To be sure, these signs of disillusionment have emerged at the margins of Mr. Giuliani's electoral coalition, and they involve a relatively small pocket of voters. Hispanic voters made up 13 percent of the general electorate in 1993 and are expected to make up about 16 percent of the total vote this November.

But Mr. Giuliani won election last time by just 52,000 votes out of 1.75 million votes cast -- or 2.5 percentage points. That slim margin of victory made his strength with Hispanics in 1993 -- 38 percent of the Hispanic vote -- particularly valuable; the Hispanic population has traditionally voted Democratic, and indeed 60 percent supported Mr. Dinkins in 1993. But Mr. Giuliani's Hispanic support was significantly stronger than a Republican might ordinarily expect to attract. (A poll in 1996 by the Hispanic Foundation found that 51 percent of the city's Hispanics are registered to vote, and of those, 70 percent were Democratic and 15 percent were Republicans.)

''Hispanics will be a swing vote,'' said Luis A. Miranda Jr., president of the city's Hispanic Federation. He estimated that up to 70 percent of the Hispanic vote is ''up for grabs.''

Mr. Giuliani also had an advantage in 1993 that he almost certainly will not have this time: He ran against Mr. Dinkins, and given the traditional rivalry between blacks and Hispanics, Mr. Giuliani was able to draw support from many Hispanic voters unwilling to vote for a black candidate, though Mr. Dinkins got many more Hispanic votes than Mr. Giuliani did. This year, Mr. Giuliani is far more likely face a Hispanic opponent: One of the two leading contenders for the Democratic nomination is Bronx Borough President Fernando Ferrer, who is of Puerto Rican descent and who has framed his candidacy as a potentially historical moment for the city's Hispanic population.

''Look, I'm something of an amateur historian in this city,'' Mr. Ferrer said. ''And from the time the Dutch were here, there was always a sense of people supporting candidates that reminded them of their ethnicity. Can someone please tell me what's different here?''

The potential Hispanic vote is smaller than, say, the black vote when Mr. Dinkins won the mayoralty in 1989. Still, Mr. Ferrer sees a parallel. ''Let's cut to the chase here,'' he said, referring to City Hall. ''The one they're worried about is me.'' In fact, it is not that simple. What politicians refer to in shorthand as the Hispanic community is by no means cohesive politically or ideologically, making it hard for academicians to measure and hard for politicians to count on.

The group Hispanic New Yorkers is made up mostly of Puerto Ricans, but it also includes people from many Latin American countries, particularly the Dominican Republic. Scholars and pollsters say most Hispanic voters are supportive of government programs that help lower- and middle-income people, and they are thus inclined to vote Democratic. But many, especially the recent immigrants, are more conservative -- hence Mr. Giuliani's relative success among Hispanic people

The importance of what Representative Jose E. Serrano of the Bronx called ''a sleeping giant'' -- the Hispanic vote -- is reflected in the day-to-day practical calculations of Mr. Giuliani, as well as the Democrats who would like to defeat him: both the Rev. Al Sharpton and Manhattan Borough President Ruth W. Messinger, most notably, have been campaigning in Hispanic neighborhoods and do not cede that vote to Mr. Ferrer. ''Why would he have a better chance?'' asked Jim Andrews, Ms. Messinger's political consultant. ''They both speak Spanish.''.

The Mayor regularly denounces Republican initiatives to restrict immigration, and he has backtracked on some of the earlier spending cuts he imposed on the city's school system. Adam Goodman, Mr. Giuliani's political consultant, said Hispanic New Yorkers will be ''the real stars'' in television advertisements devoted to Mr. Giuliani's first term in office.

Photo: Minerva Gonzalez supported the Mayor in 1993 but is dissatisfied. (Jack Manning/The New York Times)(pg. B3) Graphs: ''The Wild Card in the Mayor's Race'' When Rudolph W. Giuliani was elected Mayor in 1993, he captured nearly 40 percent of the Hispanic vote. As he tries for re-election this fall, his chances for success may depend on his ability to maintain his support from this important group. Graphs show hispanic voters' share in the 1993 electorate, who Hispanic voters supported in the 1993 Mayoral election and how Hispanic voters rate Giuliani's job performance. (pg. B1) ''DEMOGRAPHICS: The City's Hispanic Voters'' Only a little more than half of New York City's Hispanic residents are registered to vote. Of those who are, most are registered as Democrats, and most are of Puerto Rican decent. Graphs show percent of Hispanic residents who are registered to vote, Hispanic voters' party affiliation and the background of Hispanic voters. (Source: Baruch College survey of 1002 Hispanic people in May 1996)(pg. B3)

Correction: April 25, 1997, Friday A chart yesterday with an article about Mayor Rudolph W. Giuliani's support among Hispanic New Yorkers misstated the scope of a recent poll conducted by The Times about the mayoral election and misstated the margin of sampling error for the 323 Hispanic respondents. The chart reflected the feelings of all Hispanic respondents, not just likely voters; the margin was plus or minus 5 percentage points, not 3.