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If the US central bank is serious about raising interest rates, the current weakness in the US dollar is difficult to justify. The last major move up in the value of the US dollar, as determined by the US Dollar Index (DXY), was in Apr-2014. This was when the US central bank began talking about raising interest rates, up to three or four times in a given year if necessary. Between then and now, the US Dollar Index has given back not quite half of the gains and US 10 year bond yields have dropped from 2.7% in Apr-2014 compared to 2.2% today.

Given the weakening case Yellen has for raising interest rates, and the political situation in the US, there could still be more downside for the US dollar. Mother Nature has also just delivered a big surprise storm in Texas, possibly something new for the central bank radar. This week's comments focus on the outlook for the US dollar and interest rates and what this means for companies earning US dollar income.