The March Of Folly In Central America

TOLEDO, SPAIN — Prime Minister Felipe Gonzalez will visit Cuba during his current Latin American trip, making him the first head of an allied government to go to Havana.

The U.S. attempt to isolate Cuba is breaking down, although at the same time the Castro regime has lost its allure for the European left.

Nonetheless, Reagan administration policy in Central America continues to worry America's friends. A major result of the new Senate majority, they hope, will be to add restraints on Washington.

Experts agree there is virtually no chance of any move toward more normal relations between Cuba and the United States in the foreseeable future, not only because of Washington's stand but also because of Fidel Castro's anti- American attitude. But high-ranking Cubans show a serious interest in an accord on Central America. Moscow has made clear that it is not going to subsidize Nicaragua as it does Cuba, and the Cubans have told the Sandinistas that Havana cannot protect them.

There is room here for an escape from the dangerous slope the U.S. is sliding down in the region. It is a commonplace to say that Nicaragua is not Vietnam, but there are mounting parallels. Not the least important are the subterfuges and downright lies the administration has felt compelled to use to press its campaign against the Sandinistas.

U.S. policy on Nicaragua is an example of stubborn folly to an uncanny degree. From time to time in its shifting, fuzzy statements on Central America and the Caribbean, Washington has pointed out that the overriding U.S. concern in the area must be the fate of Mexico. This is certainly correct, but the vast problems of Mexico are only exacerbated by troubles in Central America. Overturning the Sandinistas is a diversion.

There are hopeful developments in the spread of democracy in Latin America. They could have an impact on the sorry Nicaraguan experiment in the longer term, but escalation of the war and increased U.S. involvement would make things harder for them.

European allies are just as opposed to what the United States is doing. They don't speak up much because they don't feel directly concerned, and they don't see the Sandinistas or for that matter the Cubans as heroic any longer. But like most Latin Americans, they see the best way to deal with these pockets of communism is to let their inefficiencies and internal pressures force them to change. Democratic Spain is particularly interested in strengthening its influence in the Latin countries, and it has capabilities that can be most helpful if Washington acts constructively.

Most Communist countries are moving now toward reforms in one way or another, not because the U.S. has pushed them but because they are falling behind economically. Cuba is an exception, but sooner or later it too will have to move.

An activist U.S. policy is needed to reinforce the democracies. A good place to start is to back away from a Nicaraguan adventure before it becomes another march of folly.