In brief

The president, Pierre Nkurunziza, has said that he will not seek re-election in 2020. We find little credibility in his statement given that he amended the constitution to extend presidential terms, via a highly-criticised referendum, and can now lawfully run for office again in 2020. As such political uncertainty will mount during the forecast period. Political turmoil will continue to injure the economy even as agriculture and mining recover slightly.