Comments on: Toney Douglas Open Threadhttp://KnickerBlogger.Net/toney-douglas-open-thread/
Statistical Analysis. Humor. Knicks.Thu, 22 Feb 2018 03:31:52 +0000hourly1http://wordpress.org/?v=4.2.19By: Calebhttp://KnickerBlogger.Net/toney-douglas-open-thread/#comment-289062
Thu, 18 Mar 2010 00:59:06 +0000http://www.knickerblogger.net/?p=3431#comment-289062Walker is pretty intriguing. There’s very little to go on – his college numbers don’t tell much, because he was still recovering from major knee surgery, the first half of the season. Before that he was a big time, blue chip, prospect, as someone else mentioned… but I have no idea if he deserved the hype.

I would say – if he’s physically in good shape, it’s reasonable to think of his potential as a mid-1st rounder or even better – instead of a no-name 2nd round pick.

Still, 500 NBA minutes don’t prove much.

]]>By: Nick C.http://KnickerBlogger.Net/toney-douglas-open-thread/#comment-289051
Wed, 17 Mar 2010 23:19:47 +0000http://www.knickerblogger.net/?p=3431#comment-289051Ben, I knew I’d get killed for bringing up Mardy, but I thought I hedged it. I just can’t get worked up over a late season flurry or a few good initial starts. Duhon had us thinking he was good for a few months also.
]]>By: nicoshttp://KnickerBlogger.Net/toney-douglas-open-thread/#comment-289046
Wed, 17 Mar 2010 22:33:46 +0000http://www.knickerblogger.net/?p=3431#comment-289046I could see Toney topping out as a poor man’s Sidney Moncrief (albeit one who shoots 3’s much better but doesn’t get to the line nearly as much). Moncrief’s career assist % was 17 and only got above 20 twice (barely). But he benefited by playing with Paul Pressy (the original “point forward” (if you don’t count Magic that is) and carved out a great career (5 time all-star/ all-NBA player and defensive player of the year twice).
]]>By: Ted Nelsonhttp://KnickerBlogger.Net/toney-douglas-open-thread/#comment-289045
Wed, 17 Mar 2010 22:31:44 +0000http://www.knickerblogger.net/?p=3431#comment-289045Ben R,

Douglas’ defense looks good, but I’d like to see a bit more of him against NBA starters in somewhat meaning minutes before making a conclusion. I think he is a good defender, I just don’t want to commit to that yet.
Overall I agree with your assessment of him, though.

Walker will be interesting to see. I can’t believe the Celts never tried playing him with their lack of depth. Someone should probably be fired over that. Seriously. My total sarcasm % is 0 on that one. (Not sure what you’re basing his track record on, though… He dominated D-League in 450 minutes, sure. Only 250 minutes in Boston, though, and a college TS% of 54% in only one full season. He’s got to get some real NBA action under his belt before I feel comfortable saying he’s for real. At least a Raja Bell/Bruce Bowen role candidate, though. Don’t have a real great feel for his D, but incredible athlete who must have picked something up at K-State and in Boston. Even if he’s worse than those guys on D, he’s likely better on O.)

I’m not saying that Chandler will get less efficient or this is an anomaly. Certainly his career trend is pointing up.

“At this point I think him actually improving on his efficiency and volume are just as likely, if not more likely, as him getting worse.”
I think that’s fair. I was going to say the same thing.

“I think right now Chandler is a great fourth option on a great team.”
Even assuming he’s a 55% TSer. He’s a medium volume/medium efficiency scorer who doesn’t really bring any other plus attribute to the table besides not turning it over and blocking shots like a PF although he’s a SF. If he’s a real plus defender, ok. Otherwise, I think you can find someone who will either a. bring more scoring or b. bring the same scoring but also bring something else. Lock-down D. Great playmaking. Really strong rebounding at the 3.
RIGHT NOW I think he’s a good solid rotation player, but probably a below-average starter (top 5 in rotation). If you have to have 3 better scorers around him and scoring is what he brings to the table… how valuable is he? His value, of course, boils down to the market for his 2nd contract: at one price he’s a great value, but at another he’s a total clunker. On his rookie deal he’s a great value or better this season and next, for sure. It also boils down to how much he improves.

Purely looking at his scoring contribution, agree he’s a good/great 4th scorer right now. If you put him on a playoff team as the 4th option, they’d probably be fine. The Josh Howard, Caron Butler, and even Granger comparisons all hold water if he continues to improve… in which case he can be a third or maybe 2nd scorer. Rudy Gay, Marvin Williams, Thaddeus Young, Desmond Mason, Travis Outlaw are also comps I would throw out there. Williams is a starter on a playoff team, Gay might be, Young has been, and Outlaw has been, I’m sure Mason has been.

For some reason I have been skeptical of Chandler his whole career. I guess it’s in part because he’s an athletic prospect working on the skills, and in part because he’s been hyped up a lot by other Knicks fans more than his production warrants.

]]>By: Brian Croninhttp://KnickerBlogger.Net/toney-douglas-open-thread/#comment-289043
Wed, 17 Mar 2010 21:58:11 +0000http://www.knickerblogger.net/?p=3431#comment-289043Yeah, I remember KB.net when Mardy had those games – about 99% of us thought it was just the extra minutes, so I don’t quite get that comparison.
]]>By: TDMhttp://KnickerBlogger.Net/toney-douglas-open-thread/#comment-289042
Wed, 17 Mar 2010 21:53:29 +0000http://www.knickerblogger.net/?p=3431#comment-289042“I’m a 36 year old 6?1? power forward. I think I have 6 good years for my sarcasm to increase on a bell curve before my grey matter starts to curdle. My ceiling’s not as high as Ted’s, but I think I can be a strong rotation producer well into my 40’s.”

Well, they don’t call him Ted “Upside” Nelson for nothing.

]]>By: Ben Rhttp://KnickerBlogger.Net/toney-douglas-open-thread/#comment-289041
Wed, 17 Mar 2010 21:12:07 +0000http://www.knickerblogger.net/?p=3431#comment-289041Ted – I think you are not giving Chandler enough credit. He has shot well 55.6% TS% not over the last two months but three and a half – 48 games – 1763 minutes. By far most of this season. If you consider that he was recovering from surgery maybe the first 17 games were the fluke, where he shot 46.1% TS%, well under his previous season.

He might get worse and stop shooting over 55% TS% but his age and the amount of time he has maintained his new efficiency make me think it is a real improvement and not a statistical anomaly.

At this point I think him actually improving on his efficiency and volume are just as likely, if not more likely, as him getting worse.

I think right now Chandler is a great fourth option on a great team. If the Knicks get a free agent and retain Lee then you have:
1st option – Free Agent
2nd option – Lee
3rd option – Gallo
4th option – Chandler

That sounds about right to me and I think Chandler can flourish in that role.

]]>By: Ben Rhttp://KnickerBlogger.Net/toney-douglas-open-thread/#comment-289040
Wed, 17 Mar 2010 20:55:33 +0000http://www.knickerblogger.net/?p=3431#comment-289040The thing that really I think sets Douglas apart is the potential he has on defense. He was one of the best, if not the best, defensive guard in the NCAA his senior year and very good his junior year. This combined with him being fairly efficient and a good three point shooter all four years of college has me thinking his efficiency is not a fluke. His volume will most likely go down when teams start game-planning him but I see no reason to think he will ever become an inefficient player. These two things alone will make him in my opinion at the very least a good role player; combo guard off the bench, or a starting PG with a good passer at the wing. How he develops as a PG will determine if he can be more than that. His age makes me weary of too much improvement, but at the very least I think he looks like a 20 minute a game player on a good team.

Walker should be able to stay efficient. He has never been a volume scorer, so he will probably always be a mid-volume player but he has had fantastic efficiency at every stop.

]]>By: ess-doghttp://KnickerBlogger.Net/toney-douglas-open-thread/#comment-289039
Wed, 17 Mar 2010 20:50:11 +0000http://www.knickerblogger.net/?p=3431#comment-289039Thomas,
I’m a 36 year old 6’1″ power forward. I think I have 6 good years for my sarcasm to increase on a bell curve before my grey matter starts to curdle. My ceiling’s not as high as Ted’s, but I think I can be a strong rotation producer well into my 40’s.
]]>By: Thomas B.http://KnickerBlogger.Net/toney-douglas-open-thread/#comment-289038
Wed, 17 Mar 2010 20:38:57 +0000http://www.knickerblogger.net/?p=3431#comment-289038Ess-dog,
Re: sarcasm.

You know, I should have known better. It’s just that Mike’s sarcasm has been so off the charts lately that it makes your sarcasm seem not sarcastic at all. You are just going to have to step up your game. But Caleb projected your sarcasm upside and I’m afraid your TS% (total sarcasm percentage) likely peaked right after Walsh drafted Jordan Hill.