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(Guardian) – THE CHALLENGE facing the party leaders tonight – and the potential for them to enhance or damage their campaigns – is the reason the TV debate is set to change the dynamic of this general election.

Nearly half the electorate say they will be watching the broadcast, according to two polls published this week, suggesting, somewhat implausibly, that as many 21 million people will be tuning in.

And the public say they will not just be watching for fun. According to an ITN poll last night, half those who said they will be watching insisted it will influence their vote. Even though the network estimates there will probably be 10-12 million viewers, all three leaders think the debates will be the axis on which the election turns.

Their remarks will be targeted at the 6 million or so floating voters, rather than at their party faithful, in the hope that they will get the “cut through” that will entice them into their fold.

One Downing Street official closely involved in preparation for the debates claims this will be the moment the general public will engage in the campaign: “For a lot of people this election has not yet lit up. A lot of people are sitting on their hands and waiting, especially women.

“The TV debates may be the point when the election starts. The predominant mood is that the electorate are not very happy with anything on offer. The public feel there are a lot of numbers out there, and find them confusing. It is not that they are stupid – it is complicated, and I don’t think they will break until very late in the last week.”

The official added: “The Tories have hit us with national insurance and marriage tax, a left and a right hook, but we are still standing. As a result the Tories have lost clarity on the deficit. There is a phrase: ‘If it looks too good to be true, it often is not true.’ That is the point we will push in the debates.”

But Gordon Brown’s team know their man is the worst communicator of the three. A Populus poll shows 42% of respondents expect David Cameron to win, compared with 22% backing Brown and, oddly, only 10% behind Nick Clegg.

In his favour, Brown’s aides say he is totally inured to the culture of America’s televised presidential debates – he apparently leaves parties early in the US to go home and watch them.

One of those preparing the prime minister says he knows that if he is to get through to the audience that matters, he needs to show emotion and not just spout statistics. With Cameron played by Alastair Campbell in Labour’s training sessions, Brown knows what it will be like to be hit by a quick-talking, and often barbed, phrase-maker.

Douglas Alexander, Labour’s election co-ordinator, has admitted that the most useful advice for Brown’s team has come from the Australian Labor party. Kevin Rudd, the ALP leader, is like Brown in some ways. He has a lot to say, but had to learn to say it in 60-second statements. Asked if this turns the whole event into a daunting memory exercise, Alexander said: “At its worst, yes, the whole event can be a sequential articulation of rehearsed lines. Anyone who has watched an American TV debate knows that. But then it can turn into a genuine debate.”

Campbell has warned Brown that the challenge is different from any he has faced before. “He’s got the factual stuff in his head,” he told the Fabian Review. “But this is a very different format from prime minister’s questions. It’s television, it’s historic, and the viewing figures are going to be huge. The rules make it quite an odd event – no applause and strict on timings, so it’s about getting used to that format. I just get at him the whole time, the way that Cameron would.”

The Tories have their own problems. Cameron says he’s nervous – and that’s not just for show. Someone who spoke to him recently claimed the Tory leader is anxious to the point of terror, an emotion on which he thrives. He is said to have watched the chancellors’ debate “like a nervous relative”, and has lain awake at night worrying about how he might foul up.

Different pressures affect the favourite in any contest – and expectations on him are high. He is waiting to see if Brown plays the role of father of the nation, though the Labour leader’s political instinct will be instead to swing the clunking fist.

Cameron has to be smart but not smarmy; to show a light touch without being lightweight.

Given the disaffection felt towards politics, Labour strategists are surprised that the Liberal Democrats have not yet done better, but Labour and the Conservatives are worried that this could be Clegg’s lift-off moment.

Cameron has privately admitted that it was a mistake giving Clegg equal time in the debates, and they should have done two with him and one without. One Tory said of Clegg: “He just has to turn up and not fall over and it’s a big success for him.”

Campbell also suggested the Liberal Democrats have got away with daylight robbery. “When we were negotiating the TV debates that never happened, back in 1997, I don’t think it was ever thought, even by the Lib Dems, that the Lib Dems would have equal billing.”

Yet Clegg’s allies say he faces challenges of his own One explained: ‘All Brown has to say is that it is a risk to vote for the Tories, all the Tories have to say is that Brown has failed and it is time for a change. Clegg’s position is more difficult and will take longer to convey.’ Clegg is expected to try to catch the anti-politics mood by describing Labour and the Tories as the old parties and presenting his as the party of change.

A senior Labour strategist tonight predicted Clegg will be the winner because he is new and unknown. But whatever happens, expect every team to claim victory. All three parties are sending big teams up to Manchester to brief the media afterwards in what is being described as either “spin alley” or “the spin room”. The teams will also all be tweeting their man’s victorious exchanges minute by minute.

By then the official verdicts – the polls – will start to pour in, and a winner will be declared. That is, until next week, when the circus reconvenes for another round.

The 90 minute election debate, chaired by Alastair Stewart, will be broadcast live, tonight, on ITV1 at 8:30pm.