Sunday, January 27, 2008

On Tuesday we may have strong storms and over one-half inch of rainfall. Severe weather does not seem likely. Later in the week a stronger trough, possibly negatively tilted, will approach Alabama along with deep moisture and a strong jet stream. If all of these factors phase up, we may be in for a round of severe weather Friday.

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Excerpt from Huntsville AFD this morning...

AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS...DEEPENINGUPRTROUGH DIGGINGFROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO THE FOUR CORNERS...WILL SWING ACROSSTHE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY THU AFTN. THE 00Z/27 GFS IS NOT AS AMPLIFIEDAS IT WAS 24 HOURS AGO BUT THE 00Z ECMWF CONTINUES TO SHOW A NEARLYCLOSED UPR LOW COMING OUT OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY LATE THU. INEITHER CASE...A SFC WAVE COMING UP FROM THE GULF IS EXPECTED TOINTENSIFY AHEAD OF THE UPR LOW AND TRACK NORTHEAST FROM THE LWR MSVLY TO THE OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. AS THIS OCCURS...THE THREAT OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOPACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. AT THIS TIME...ITS STILL TOO EARLY TODETERMINE THE POTENTIAL STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM...BUT MUCH OF THEAREA REMAINS IN AN ELEVATED RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER FOR THURSDAYNIGHT AND FRIDAY. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE POTENTIAL INTENSITYAND TRACK OF THIS STORM SYSTEM FAVORS SEVERE /POSSIBLE TORNADIC/WEATHER ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.

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