christopher price

Patriots free agent forecast: Who will stay, who will go?

Throughout the offseason, we’ll check in frequently on New England’s free agent class. Here’s the first look at the group of players who were with the Patriots in 2013 but aren’t under contract to the team going forward, as well as a thumbnail sketch about their respective situations and their chances of returning.

Long snapper Danny Aiken: A restricted free agent, Aiken had a pretty good season until he almost got punter Ryan Allen decleated in the divisional playoffs with a snap clear over Allen’s head. Chances are good he’ll be retained, but it wouldn’t be a surprise to see the Patriots bring in a little competition.

Running back LeGarrette Blount: The veteran played the best football of his career down the stretch, as the Patriots rode him to a dominant December and early January. He has already mentioned on multiple occasions how he’d like to return to New England in 2014, and his late-season work certainly suggests he’d have a place with the team. However, a check of the marketplace suggests he might have trouble landing a sizable deal. In the long run, Blount might be wise to follow the same career path as his pal Aqib Talib, who signed a relatively inexpensive, one-year “show-me” deal at the end of last season to come back to New England. Return to the Patriots for something (likely) below market value, have another impressive season and then jump back into the marketplace for what could be a bigger payday.

Defensive end Andre Carter: Among his teammates, Carter is one of the most popular players in recent franchise history. However, Carter -- who will turn 35 in May -- could be coming to the end of the road. In nine games with the Patriots in 2013, working as a backup defensive end, Carter had a pair of sacks and two passes defensed. Of course, he could hit on the same sort of deal with the Patriots he did in 2013, when he was able to skip camp, sign in October and jump right back into action.

Wide receiver Austin Collie: When he was on the roster, Collie emerged as a dependable presence in the passing game. He was targeted more in the postseason than Danny Amendola (seven to six), and was on the field for some of the most important sequences of the year. He didn’t have overly flashy numbers -- six catches for 63 yards in seven games played -- but his consistency and steadiness clearly won over quarterback Tom Brady. He’s certainly not a No. 1 receiver any more, but he would add some depth and stability to the back end of the wide receiver depth chart if he returned in 2014.

Wide receiver Julian Edelman:What a difference a year makes. This time last season, Edelman entered a free agent market that was tepid at best when it came to his services, and after a lukewarm visit with the Giants, decided to return to New England for a one-year deal. Now, after a 105-catch season, he will re-enter the market as one of the most intriguing free agents available. While there’s a school of thought that his production was simply the product of the New England system and he’d be hard-pressed to replicate it somewhere else, he will get some offers. In the end, the viewpoint from here is that he will find a way to return to Foxboro in some form or fashion, for at least one more season.

Linebacker Dane Fletcher: A backup who provides depth and is a special teams contributor, he’ll likely return to New England on a relatively inexpensive deal.

Tight end Michael Hoomanawanui: In his two seasons with the Patriots, Hooman has grown into the sort of player every team needs -- smart, dependable and durable. He’s never going to be able to bring the offensive thunder like Rob Gronkowski, but his work as a blocker is underrated, his catches the ball almost every time its thrown in his direction (his one-handed grab against the Dolphins was one of the most impressive receptions of the year) and his background with Josh McDaniels suggests that he’ll be back in 2014 to serve as a backup to Gronk.

Tight end Matthew Mulligan:Hulk Hogan’s favorite member of the roster was a lot like Hoomanawanui in that he worked well as a blocker and occasional target in the passing game. The Patriots won't break the bank for him but probably would like to see him return in 2014.

Linebacker Brandon Spikes: He carved out a niche as one of the best run-stoppers in the league in his four years with the Patriots, but it’s likely that the decision to place him on season-ending injured reserve at the end of the year was the last straw for the coaching staff. (It’s also worth speculating about Spikes’ future in New England now that one of his greatest advocates in Pepper Johnson has left the franchise.) Figure on Spikes being elsewhere in 2014.

Offensive lineman Will Svitek: A backup tackle and one of the more popular guys on the roster, he made an impact filling in when Sebastian Vollmer went down but was soon supplanted in the starting lineup by converted guard Marcus Cannon. His future in Foxboro appears tied to what the franchise will decide to do in free agency and or the draft. If he does stay, he likely will start 2014 behind Nate Solder, Sebastian Vollmer and Cannon on the depth chart.

Cornerback Aqib Talib: Talib might not be a shutdown corner, but when healthy he’s the most talented cornerback the Patriots have had in some time, and he allows them to play to their strengths in the secondary. As we saw in the AFC title game, Alfonzo Dennard isn’t ready to operate as the No. 1 corner against some of the league’s elite receivers like Talib did over the course of the season, while Logan Ryan isn’t quite ready for such a bright spotlight. (And we haven’t even mentioned the fact that Kyle Arrington is better in the slot and Devin McCourty needs to stick at safety.) He might not be able to cash in big time this offseason, but he will still head into the marketplace as one of the top cornerbacks available, alongside names like Brent Grimes and Alterraun Verner. Gut feeling says that there’s enough goodwill heading into negotiations that the two sides find some way to extend this relationship, even if it means the temporary application of the franchise tag while the two sides work to hammer out a deal.

Center Ryan Wendell: The Fresno State product has been a durable presence in the middle for the Patriots the last two-plus seasons, and he could be retained on a team-friendly deal if the sides can come to an agreement. Going all the way back to Damien Woody, the Patriots have never spent big money on centers, and while they like Wendell, don’t expect them to dig too deep in this instance.

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