Wednesday, June 05, 2013

PPP's first poll of the Michigan Gubernatorial race since Mark Schauer's official entry finds the Democrat leading incumbent Rick Snyder 42/38. PPP's polling of this match up over the last six months has been very consistent- in March Schauer also led Snyder by 4 points and in December he had a 5 point advantage.

Schauer's initial lead has a lot more to do with Snyder than it does with himself. Even after his official candidacy announcement, he has just 38% statewide name recognition. But Snyder continues to be one of the most unpopular Governors in the country with only 40% of voters approving of him to 52% who disapprove. He's at 40/51 with independents and Democrats (78% disapproval) dislike him a good deal more than Republicans (68% approval) like him.

Schauer's low name recognition at this point means that things could actually get worse for Snyder. The undecideds for Governor voted for Barack Obama by a 16 point margin, and only 22% approve of Snyder to 64% who disapprove. Those are folks likely to move into the Schauer camp once he becomes better known.

Snyder's role in the passage of right to work legislation continues to be a big problem for him. Just 40% of voters support that law to 50% who oppose it, numbers that have not seen any improvement since the initial furor after it passed in December. Snyder continues to have issues with his brand, as only 34% of voters now consider him to be 'one tough nerd' to 45% who don't.

Snyder obviously has a lot of time between now and next November to improve his standing but our 3 polls over the last six months have been very consistent in their findings: he's way under water on his approval ratings and running behind his potential competition for next year.

Republicans in the legislature continue to face backlash from the voters as well. Just 27% have a favorable opinion of them to 59% with a negative one, and their 25/61 spread with independents is even worse than their overall numbers. The Democrats in the legislature aren't popular either- a 38/43 favorability rating- but they look good enough in comparison to the Republicans to hold a 48/38 lead on the generic legislative ballot.

And finally 49% of voters in the state support raising the minimum wage to $10 an hour, compared to 43% who are opposed to that idea.