Tuesday, September 16, 2008

Edgar Renteria continues to be safely within Type A Range. That's the good news. The bad news is that the Tigers are apparently on the hook for his buyout. This changes things slightly. In the article, Jon Paul Morosi asserts that the Tigers are likely to buy out Renteria. My hope is that they still offer arbitration, especially since two of the teams who could sign him, the Dodgers and Cardinals, stand to have draft picks between 16 and 25. That is to say the Tigers would get a first round pick for him.

If I have time in the future, I can try to do some economic analysis on the Renteria situation. My gut says it is worth the risk of him accepting to offer him arbitration, even with the $3,000,000 sunk cost.

First, I think it hurts the Tigers that Renteria is a Type A free agent. IMO, that will do more to deter teams from signing him since they'll not only be giving him his contract, but also losing a first round pick.

Second, the Cardinals are tied for the 16th draft pick and the Dodgers are a half game behind (or ahead? however you want to look at it) in the 17th slot. It's not a stretch to think the Cardinals will drop into the 1-15 area meaning they wouldn't lose their 1st round pick.

Given the shortstop market, some team would overbid and do so early. My hunch is that the Type A status doesn't hurt Renteria as much as you are suggesting. Worst case scenario is that the Tigers have an expensive former all star having a fine second half at shortstop on a one year deal. The accepted arbitration risk really isn't that big of a deal, imo.