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Wednesday, March 7, 2012

ENSO Analysis (March 7, 2012)

This is an ENSO update provided by The Weather Centre.

Recently, we have been seeing the La Nina weakening. It was, after all, an expected occurrence, predicted weeks, if not months, in advance. However, in the last couple weeks, we have seen significant warming of the eastern ENSO monitoring area, shown in the above animation.

For those that are unfamiliar with how the ENSO phenomenon functions, it involves a cool or warm phase. the cool phase (La Nina) is characterized by cool water anomalies in the center of the image. The warm phase (El Nino) involves warm temperature anomalies over the center of the image.
La Ninas are known to bring above normal precip. to the Ohio Valley, while El Ninos favor the Northeast for winter snowstorms.

While warming is typical in the ENSO monitoring area during summer, no matter the phase it is in, this seems unusually early for warming to occur. If that stands true, this may be the sign that an El Nino is quickly trying to take hold.

For those wondering about next winter- I don't want to reveal too much, but historically, bad winters have preceded good winters, in terms of snowfall.
My first preliminary winter 2012-2013 forecast will be issued in a few months (the one out now is simply an overview).

20 comments:

ERN WX
said...

Hello, Andrew. I am glad to see El Nino forming. This is great news for the winter in my area. The only side effect this has for my area is we don't get as much rain in summer as normal. I think this winter (2012- 2013) is going to be better for EVERYONE.

Hello, Mike. Sorry El Ninos aren't good for you snow-wise. A neutral winter is indeed on the table of possibilities. I will take a neutral winter, gladly. Historically my area does best snow-wise in a weak El Nino. However, we generally do well in neutral winters. Either or is fine with me. I will gladly, also take a weak Nina. Unfortunately, I seriously doubt we will see three staight La Ninas. Climatologically you need a good Nina to get the BIG DADDIES. El Ninos Normally have a couple panhandle hooks and Apps runners. So your area would have at least a decent chance of a large snowstorm. I think a compromise would make everyone happy. A NEUTRAL winter!!! One thing for sure, Mike, just about anything would be better than what miserable excuse for winter we just had! Thank you, Mike for helping me several days ago. Take care, Mike!!!

I would say the climate is changing along with many other factors why this past winter did not have much snow.It possibly could be a trend in the coming winters.I could be wrong,but i could be right.Time will tell.Hopefully i'm 100% wrong and beyond.

With a low sunspot cycle, I think this winter may have similarities to 2009-2010 winter. The best winter I have ever seen. It was around 80 inches total for the season. 4 10+ inch snowstorms. I will be happy with one.

Sunspot cycles have a tremendous influence on temperatures. If a large volcano were to erupt the whole climate would completely cool off rapidly. Yellowstone is something that really worries me. if that were to have a major eruption, we would likely head into an ice age.

The + Ao and Nao were the big problem I think that hurt our winter. Since low sunspot cycles are linked to - Nao's and this winter will have a low sunspot cycle, i think a - Nao may dominate. Andrew, if you see necessary, please comment when you have the opportunity, if you want to. this is an excellent discussion we have going on here. I am being a bit of an optimist.

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