Tuesday, May 29, 2007

Don't Count on 4-Way Races in Quebec

Thomas Mulcair wants us to believe that if the NDP can reach 20% of the popular vote in Quebec, it will yield an abundance of seats for the party as a result of a good number of 4-way races. However, he shouldn't count on it. The fact of the matter is that although 4 parties are currently polling in the double digits, on a regional basis, we see a series of 2-way races with the NDP trailing far behind the front runners. In Montreal, the contest is between the Liberals and the BQ, while in the rest of Quebec, the contest is between the Bloc and the Tories. Mulcair's scenario only really applies to the Outremont riding, the very riding he plans to run in when a by-election is called in the near future.