Leaked IPCC report predicts violent conflict due to global warming

A leaked report of the United Nations panel has predicted severe impacts of global warming on food-grain production, fresh-water resources and human settlements across the globe with Asia facing the brunt of it.

NEW DELHI: A leaked report of the United Nations panel has predicted severe impacts of global warming on food-grain production, fresh-water resources and human settlements across the globe with Asia facing the brunt of it.

The document, second in series of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's (IPCC) fifth assessment report which is to be made public in Tokyo on March 31, also carries details of how the global warming will create a civil-war kind of situation in many parts of the world due to huge pressure on available resources.

A UK-based daily - The Independent - on Tuesday claimed to have seen draft of the final version of the forthcoming IPCC (Working Group-II), saying the "warming climate will place the world under enormous strain, forcing mass migration, especially in Asia, and increasing the risk of violent conflict".

It forecasts that the climate change will reduce median yields by up to 2% per decade for the rest of the 21st century - against a backdrop of rising demand of food-grains by 14% per decade until 2050.

It predicts impact of climate change on yields of major crops such as wheat, rice and maize in different climatic zones comprising tropical regions of India.

The leaked report says the temperature increase of 2.5 degree C above pre-industrial levels may aggregate huge economic loss. It will also indirectly increase the risks from violent conflict in the form of civil war to violent protests. The report, in its different sections, highlights how the global warming will impact human health, freshwater resources, food security and low-lying areas.

The findings of the Working Group II will consider the vulnerability and exposure of human and natural systems, the observed impacts and future risks of climate change, and the potential for and limits to adaptation. The chapters of the report assess risks and opportunities for societies, economies, and ecosystems around the world.

Referring to the 'leaked' draft report, the UK daily claimed that the IPCC findings predict displacement of "hundreds of millions of people" due to land loss. It says, "The majority affected will be in East Asia, South-East Asia and South Asia. Rising sea levels means coastal systems and low-lying areas will increasingly experience submergence, coastal flooding and coastal erosion".

The draft of the report, as accessed by the UK daily, says "freshwater-related risks of climate change increase significantly with increasing greenhouse gas emissions".

It finds that climate change will "reduce renewable surface water and groundwater resources significantly in most dry subtropical regions", exacerbating the competition for water.

"Terrestrial and freshwater species will also face an increased extinction risk under projected climate change during and beyond the 21st century", said the report.