The US Dollar Index is edging lower, testing support at 78
after reversing below the former primary support level of 78.50.
Breakout below 77.50 is likely and would signal a down-swing with a target of 74*
— placing upward pressure on gold and crude oil prices.
Recovery above 79.50, while unlikely, would warn of reversal to a primary up-trend.

Spot gold is consolidating in a narrow band below the key resistance level at $1000
— a bullish sign.
The weakening dollar increases the chance of an upward breakout, which would signal an advance to $1100*.
Reversal below $970 is less likely, but would warn of another correction to test primary support at $900.
In the long term, breakout above $1000 would offer a target of $1300*, while failure of support at $900 would test the November low at $700.
The primary determinant of gold direction will be US inflation and consequent stability of the dollar.

The Market Vectors Gold Miners Index [GDX] is headed for a test of its upper trend channel,
on the back of higher spot gold prices.
Respect of the channel border, however, would be a bearish sign, warning of another down-swing.

Spot silver broke through resistance at $16, indicating an advance to the upper trend channel
— a positive sign for gold.
Expect retracement to test the new support level;
respect would be a bullish sign for gold,
while failure of support would indicate weakness.
Reversal below $15 is unlikely, but would warn of a bull trap.

Industrial demand exerts greater influence over platinum than over gold prices.
The RJ/CRB Commodities Index is undergoing a secondary correction,
indicating weaker industrial demand for platinum.
Upward breakout from the recent descending triangle, however, is spurred by speculative demand, following the sharp rise in gold and silver.
Expect a test of resistance at $1290/1300,
but reversal below support at $1220
would warn of a bull trap
— and test of $1100.
At present breakout above $1300 is unlikely, but would signal an advance to $1500*.

Crude oil broke through support at $70/barrel, warning of a secondary correction in line with the broader RJ/CRB Commodities Index.
Retracement that respects the new resistance level (at $70) would confirm the signal
— as would failure of short-term support at $67.