Pepperel Attends Oil And Gas Depletion Conference

The imminent decline of the world's oil and gas
supplies was discussed at the National Convention of the
RunningOnEmptyNZ research group last Sunday, 23 November in
Miramar. Wellington City Councillor Brian Pepperell
attended to consider the implications for Wellington and New
Zealand.

The group is forecasting that New Zealand and
most other countries will, within this decade, face dramatic
increases in the price of natural gas, petrol, diesel and
other forms of energy.

OIL AND GAS WELLS
EMPTYING

Quoting evidence from the Hubbert School for
Petroleum Studies in Colorado and other authorities, the
Moderator, Mr. Bruce Thomson, explained that there had been
a global peak in oil discoveries in 1960, and that for the
past forty years, the amount of oil discovered has
consistently declined despite all technological
innovations.

"At present the world consumes four barrels
of oil for each barrel discovered. Most of it's from oil
fields discovered decades ago. Within this decade, even
those fields will start declining forever, beginning fierce
international competition for the dwindling oil, and very
high prices," said Mr. Thomson.

There were comparisons
with the oil shocks of 1973 and 1979, but this time there
would not be a restoration of supply. In those crises, the
shortages were political action, but this time the oil
wells were in final, permanent decline. Another speaker,
Robert Atack, who runs a website www.OilCrash.com, reported
that natural gas was also about to decline in North America
according to Matthew Simons, who is a prominent investment
banker and advisor to George W. Bush. New Zealand's Maui
gas is expected to be depleted in about 2007 according to
the Natural Gas Holdings Corporation (NGC).

PREPARATIONS

At the meeting Mr. Pepperell conferred with
the group about best preparatory measures. It was agreed
that the energy decline problem needed exposure when
transport and roading plans were proposed, because scarcity
and high price of fuels would reduce traffic. "Asphalt is
created out of crude oil too", said Mr. Pepperell. "It is
already becoming a problem because of increasing
cost."

Localizing business activities would help protect
companies from insupportable costs for fuels. Because the
problem was global, imported goods would become much more
expensive than local alternatives. Agriculture would be
affected because soil productivity was currently magnified
several times by fertilizers created out of natural
gas.

In general it was agreed that the media had not
covered the issue much, despite its serious implications to
the public. This was changing though, as news emerged of
the Maui gas field expiring, and the USA's motives for
invading Afghanistan and Iraq were questioned
internationally.

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