Another option would be to cut off the Allies, march into Burma from Assam, and destroy many enemy LCUs while extricating 17th Army. How many VPs would THAT be worth?

Finally, we can't lose sight of the very real possibility of a 3:1 victory in early '44 or a "run out the clock" victory as Alfred has pointed out. Either of these would certainly count as victory in my book.

So, I won't take leave of my senses, I promise, but things have progressed to the point where I should at least consider the possible upside scenarios.

This would certainly put a crimp in his land war into Burma as well as netting a bunch of VPs. With British replacement rates you might buy an extra year. Your troops would have a good long time to set up well fortified defensive lines, and maybe you can get some of that oil back from India as well.

In addition, after recent naval battles, this would be pretty demoralizing for the Allies.

Agree with with the other "Mike" about destroying LCUs, the bigger the better. Force CF to make decisions about how to use his limited British and CW troops and their devices. The Indian infantry squads will be the least of his concerns, but he will not be able to rebuild and then have a high tempo of offensive operations as he doesn't have enough squads. Certain devices like the 25 pound gun is one piece of FA that is in short supply at this point and is a lot more effective than the 18 pounder. A rebuilt division will have around 40 experience levels. Destroying troops will slow the Allies down more than taking territory, IMO.

Good advice. I looked at the high value bases in India, and while I can see a path to capture about 1,750 VPs if we break through, the catch is that the values of these bases to the Allies are surprisingly low. Thus, the "swing" will be closer to 2,000 VP, plus any troops losses. Not enough to drive down the denominator of the equation.

Thus, we go on with Whirlwind as originally intended. If we break through at Chittagong we cut off the Commonwealth forces in Burma and try for an LCU destroying battle. If we can't break through, we retreat to CB, then seize Akyab and threaten the flank of the Allies in the Burma basin

I have a PBM game just a little beyond yours. As the Allies, I am currently pushing into Burma. I can tell you that I am VERY aware of the danger of those troops being cut-off and destroyed or rendered ineffective. Obviously I do not know what CF has done to guard against that, but if you can do it, then do it!

Sorry, folks! Work was rough and we had a close family friend pass away, but the game continues. I owe you four or five days of updates and should get them up shortly. Not a whole lot going on except for ongoing land battles at Chittagong and Kweiyang.

We order a maximum effort to coincide with a DA, but for once our escorts don't fly. This leaves about 140 Helens unprotected against 30ish enemy fighters, with predictable results. A horrible 47 IJAAF bomber airframes are lost. We are quite fortunate to lose FAR fewer pilots, however, and thus the losses are surprisingly sustainable. Still, without a network of bases in Assam, we cannot gain air superiority. This will be a race between our Army and the Allied bombers.

The other big air action involves a major Allied bombing effort opposed by 40ish Tojos on LRCAP. We savage the enemy escorts but fail to stop the bombers. A2A in this battle is 25:8 for fighters with 5 bombers shot down as a bonus.

DA Chittagong is encouraging, with forts dropped to 2, odds 1:1, casualties 456(17) vs 2440(16). The bad news is that we have a DIS(-) due to air attacks, and several units end the day with high DIS. If we can't recover, the base could hold.

China

DA Kweiyang goes well. Odds are 1:2, but we drop forts to level 2, casualties are 1908(78) vs 3136(12). This will be a long siege, but in the end we believe the KMT will succumb as they cannot recover disabled squads while we can.

A quick note to make Yankees jealous. I am catching up the AAR today by about a week. I'm doing this on my back porch with a cold Sierra Nevada. Weather is a perfect mix of sun and breeze, temps 72 F on the dot. This is the time of year to live in Texas! (August not so much [:D]).

With Broome's airfield closed, we task some of our IJAAF bombers with closing the small field at Derby. This won't take long.

Burma

Another big air battle over Chittagong. Even with the Allies getting the bounce, our Tojos outfly the enemy fighters handily due to the pilot quality differential. Still, the bomber stream gets through and pounds our troops. Not good.

Prome forts go to 6. Nice! Now the engineers here can shift to Toungoo to help finish getting that base to 6. Then on to Taung Gyi.

China

A disappointing DA at Kweiyang makes no progress on forts, as CF gets two new LCUs into the base from his reserve at Chungking today. Odds 1:2, casualties 1400(20) vs 4288(15). Unlike Chittagong, however, time is on our side here. We will rest and let our bombers destroy supply while we recover squads for another effort.

Interestingly, RO-64 misses a DD in a large SCTF near Ndeni. The TF contains BB South Dakota, 4 CAs, and several DDs, including Gridley. What is CF up to here? We put our LBA on alert, assuming a bombardment is afoot.

SE Fleet

A good sized B-24 raid hits the port at Shortlands, which is empty. Hmmm....

Buna makes forts 6. Milne Bay makes airfield 2.

Burma

We ordered a night port attack at Madras, but it doesn't fly. We will try again tomorrow as many of CF's supply and bombardment TFs originate here.

Massive air battles over Cox's Bazaar. First a very poorly escorted Blenheim raid costs the Allies a bunch of fighters and almost 20 Blenheims. Ouch. Then a better escorted raid gets through, but the enemy fighters suffer badly enough that a P-40 group has morale problems and sees 10 fighters run for home. Finally, CF even throws Hudsons at us from Calcutta. We haven't seen those ancient machines in months! Bad weather over the base makes bombing runs ineffective. All in all a win today. 17th Army suffers no attacks, recovers DIS, and will DA tomorrow.

We guess wrong and LRCAP Chittagong. He raids CB and crushes the airfield. Ugh.

DA Chittagong fails. We are very discouraged to see forts back up to 3. Odds are 1:2, Casualties 812(11) vs 5341(35). Ugly.

This effort may have failed. 17th Army is still in decent shape to retire to CB before moving on Akyab and thus intervening in the battle in middle Burma. We can't seem to overcome the enemy bombers, and our own bombers are based too far away to prevent recovery of fort levels. I hate to give up the invasion of Assam, but I fear we are beaten here.

What do the readers think? Huge decision for Japan.

China

Ichang makes airfield 7.

Meta-game

You know why my morale is a bit low. Interestingly, CF comments in an e-mail that his morale is rock bottom too. The small victory he had in the air over Chittagong a few days back (killing some unescorted Helens), was the first good news for him in months, and he made a joke about how it was all he had to cling to. Interesting, as CF generally stays away from such commentary. We are really on the razor's edge here. One more push could be decisive.

Goal

If I withdraw from Chittagong, my goal will be to hold off in Burma and win on January 1, 1944. Doable? Input is welcome.

I dunno if it is doable, it looks worrying if you ask me. Now you are 1:1 or even worse in AS, no air supremacy and even point defence over 17th Army seems to be a failure. Now, Akyab is a damn fine base to hold, might be difficult to supply, but even more so for the enemy. The 17th Army in Burma, where you have a chance (if you prioritice as such) for air supremacy, might see the Burma Theater be a real quagmire and a pain in the butt for the Allies. Do not though, that with the failed Tulagi invasion and the CV losses off of Broome, the Allies only hope for a real front now and for the next five months is Burma. - So, CF will probably send everything and anything he's got to Theater.

If we go that way, and unfortunately I see little choice, Akyab will be a means to an end. The end will be doubling my combat power in Burma and threatening the western flank of any move by his army deeper. This is not as sexy (or as decisive) as taking Assam, which sucks. However, it will still effect a long operational delay in the only theater where CF can mount a major offensive for many months. All to the good.

You know why my morale is a bit low. Interestingly, CF comments in an e-mail that his morale is rock bottom too. The small victory he had in the air over Chittagong a few days back (killing some unescorted Helens), was the first good news for him in months, and he made a joke about how it was all he had to cling to. Interesting, as CF generally stays away from such commentary. We are really on the razor's edge here. One more push could be decisive.

Goal

Sounds like CF is about to break morale. If you bring up the KB to Chittagong for CAP that should give you the time to regroup your ground units and break his defense, which may help w/ your auto victory.

Well, a horde of BBs is on the way. KB could put in an appearance. IF I can get his bombers off me I'll recover squads and take the base. If not, I can't. Ideally I'd get to the point I could stop fort building through airfield attacks too. It will be hard.

Real life majorly intervened and I couldn't keep up the AAR. Time to catch up.

Subs

ASW harasses Pompano near Formosa. We have this choke point blanketed with ASW TFs and trained ASW Sallys.

Thresher torpedoes an xAK near Ominato. Saury duds on a PB near Rabaul.

5th Fleet

An Air HQ is unloading at Shimishuri-Jima as we prepare for better weather up here.

SE Fleet

Gasmata makes level 6 forts. The engineer group here will shift to the DEI to accelerate building the Dobo to Dili area.

Vella Lavella is building as a fighter/support base for Munda.

Rossell Island is now a seaplane base again with the arrival of a small base force.

Burma

Allied air is either socked in or resting.

Nonetheless, we make a difficult decision at Chittagong and order 17th Army to march out. Cribtop HQ judges that we can't suppress enemy air power, as several major bases are out of IJA fighter range and cannot be bombarded. Thus, we won't be able to win the race of recovering disabled squads and mounting enough attacks to push down forts. We will go with plan B, seizing Akyab and severely threatening the right flank of the Allied army in Burma.

Convoy escorts hit Silversides with a DC near Hong Kong. The E class is already making its presence felt.

SE Fleet

Efate makes airfield 5. Really a Sitzkrieg in the Pacific now.

Burma

As our bombardment TF nears Chittagong, enemy patrol planes spot it and send the "enemy carriers" message because a CVE is attached to provide CAP and ASW. A Jake from one of the BBs is spotted over Diamond Harbor too. Will CF consider this to be KB on the move? Perhaps.

The enemy planes attack 17th Army as it marches out of the Chittagong hex.

China

We recently observed two new KMT LCUs marching into the mountain hex at 81, 40 near Tienshui. To our surprise, CF tries a DA that fails against well-entrenched IJA forces. Odds were 1:3, casualties 11,260(213) vs 869(4). No worries on that front.

Newly minted Lieutenant Suzuki Kaito walked away from his G4M1 bomber, leaving it in the care of his ground crew after yet another training mission over the Ocean near Yokohama. Training had continued day in and day out for three months, and he was finally nearing graduation. As the third son of a relatively influential branch of the powerful Suzuki clan, Kaito believed fighting in the Naval Air Service was the best chance to win honor for his family. He had not realized how long the training period would continue, however. As news of one victory after another reached Japan from the front, he felt like the war was passing him by.

Kaito's reverie was interrupted by another pilot in his Hikotai, Lieutenant Haseyama Soru. "Heard the news? All pilots and co-pilots are meeting in the ready room. Rumor is we're finally heading out for combat!"

"About time!" exclaimed Kaito. "I wonder where? Rabaul? Java?"

"All the action is in Burma right now. It's got to be Burma," said Soru.

"But that's Army Air Force territory," argued Kaito. mens' conversation blended into many similar arguments as the pilots of the Hikotai filed into the ready room. While not boisterous by Western standards, the din was a riot in Japanese terms. Total silence descended as the Hikotai's Commanding Officer, Captain Kitano Hidetoshi, marched into the room.

"Gentlemen, I will not mince words. The hour has come for you all to serve the Emperor in battle."

Cheers erupted from the group of trainees, and it took a short time for Kitano to restore order.

"Enough! You may wonder why these orders have come shortly before the formal conclusion of your training period. You may also be curious as to the location of your first posting. The answers will surprise you."

"This morning and afternoon, an armed merchant cruiser operating at the limit of Japanese aircraft patrols was attacked by American carrier torpedo bombers. Hit twice, the brave ship stayed afloat long enough to launch its floatplanes. One plane confirmed the presence of an enemy task force with several escort carriers. The other plane flew directly to the nearest Japanese base to ensure that the sighting would be reported even if radio messages failed to get through."

Always a bit of a showman, the Captain paused for effect before dropping a bombshell.

"The base where the floatplane landed was on Shimushiri-Jima in the Kuriles. Gentlemen, the enemy threatens the homeland, and you will be called upon to defend it until reinforcements can arrive from the Southern Resource Area. You must not fail in this sacred duty. Remember your training here, and use it well. We will take off immediately for Ominato, then on to Shimushiri. Banzai!"

Kaito joined the other pilots in a hearty response. Inside, however, he worried. Although they were for all practical purposes fully trained, it couldn't be good news that the Empire was relying on unseasoned pilots to defend the Home Islands. He had wanted to go to the front, but it appeared that the front had come to him.

Cuttlefish makes a bid for the initiative in NOPAC. But what is really going on?

Subs

Escorts of an SCTF chase off K XI near Rangoon.

5th Fleet

We recently launched a Jake carrying AMC to watch the most likely approach to the Kuriles at the limits of Emily range. Today she spots a single TF reported as six ships with three CVEs. Twice attacked by very small Avenger raids, the AMC is torpedoed. Although still afloat, the ship is doomed.

Wow. Certainly an interesting move by Cuttlefish, and frankly it comes as we are still shuttling troops around in the Kuriles. Not all bases are covered, and if he is coming with an invasion he could take a few bases depending on where he lands. Then again, we did just unload the Air HQ at Shimushiri, and we have two strong Betty Hikotai with 70 NavT pilots ready to go, along with several trained Val groups. Fighters could be an issue, but we may be able to use IJAAF Oscars. By good fortune and planning we have an elite Nell group about two days away from the Home Islands that was heading up North in time for March.

What is he up to? Invasion is possible, but with the carrier inferiority he faces for some months yet, any troops landed in the Kuriles would be cut off and destroyed in detail. He may just be raiding, perhaps as a feint for a move elsewhere. Or, he could be planning a move in the Aleutians, using this CVE TF as distant cover to keep the IJN away. We will treat it like the real thing but watch for signs of a feint. KB is already planning to move out for Babel, and that move will be accelerated. Admiral Tanaka will leave Truk for Japan as well.

What do y'all think is going on?

Southern Army

We spot a lone xAK trying a kamikaze supply run to Broome. Subs and Nells will deal with that.

Ruteng makes airfield 2.

Burma

The army is pulling back without opposition. The two armored divisions are already in the jungle, with the four infantry divisions about a day behind.

Its hard to have a feel of your game to provide any meaningful advice and I am a AFB ...[:D]

1. I agree with a fent of some sort .. Certainly I would not want to bring the KB up North if my intent was to attack up here. Rather I would at this time force you to cover more ocean and get your forces moving at this time in the game. Invading anything where the IJ can concntrate and the Allies cannot in early '43 is a ticket to Dieppe [;)]

2. You are moving stuff around ...[8D]

3. A nice effective raid up here can catch tankers and xAK's .. at the very least scatter stuff around ... and now you have to shift stuff to protect your naval projction up there ..

I am of the ilk for the IJ to move the resources most easily shifted with the thought of a measured response rather than totally panic and start moving lots of platforms In my first game I used the IJ's propensity to send everything but the kichen sink for every threat .. pretty soon the fuel stocks became a huge problem and then when I did come .. the repsonse was greatly restrained by the needs of the home islands and the needs of remote naval bases ..