Five things to watch in Texas governor debate

By Patrick Svitek

September 18, 2014Updated: September 19, 2014 3:01pm

Texas gubernatorial candidates meet for their first debate Friday evening in the Rio Grande Valley, a high-stakes opportunity for state Sen. Wendy Davis, D-Fort Worth, to shake up the race. Leading in the money race and the polls, Republican Attorney General Greg Abbott is looking to hold on to his front-runner status. Here's what we're watching with hours to go until Abbott and Davis take the stage at 6 p.m. at the Edinburg Conference Center:

Abbott has only participated in one formal televised debate, though he has experience sparring with his opponents in more casual settings. Davis' debate resume is a little longer, with her most recently facing Republican challenger Mark Shelton in 2012.

Davis has had more experience this summer engaging with the issues of the day than Abbott has, handling more media scrums and doing more interviews. That's partly a result of her underdog status - she needs the attention - but it's also given her plenty of practice to sharpen her messages and understand what kind of questions she'll receive Friday evening.

Abbott, on the other hand, hasn't been as personally media-tested. He's no novice, though, carefully navigating less-than-flattering reports this summer when he was available to the press. However, his record wasn't perfect: He gave Davis one of her biggest openings in June when he suggested Texas families could just "drive around the neighborhood" to figure out where hazardous chemicals are stored.

2. Will there be non-stop mudslinging?

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Abbott's campaign released his first negative TV ad Thursday morning, signaling more than ever he's ready to take on Davis. She's been hammering him with attack ad after attack ad, hoping to set the stage for direct confrontation.

In any case, the debate provides both candidates with an opportunity to personally back up their campaigns' tough talk. As the underdog, Davis is more likely to go this route, using the high-profile debate to reprise every offensive her campaign has run against Abbott so far.

As it has been throughout the summer, the extent to which he pushes back remains an open question. If he gets too involved in the back-and-forth, he runs the risk of lending credibility to the criticism while giving Davis' people an excuse to claim they have him on his heels.

3. Or will it be a snoozer?

While their campaigns have shown little reluctance to do battle, the candidates themselves remain rather low-voltage politicians by nature, two lawyers who keep their rhetoric relatively tame on the campaign trail. Even in front of some of their friendliest audiences, Abbott and Davis have offered consistent, disciplined critiques of one another without setting off too many fireworks.

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Plus, the format seems designed to keep the mud-slinging to a minimum. Each candidate will receive a minute to answer a question, while his or her opponent gets 45 seconds to provide a rebuttal. That leaves little room for the kind of "food fights" the Abbott campaign reportedly wanted to avoid as it negotiated the terms of the two debates.

4. Both candidates have to be careful with their attacks to avoid even the slightest perception they are crossing the line. Their supporters will be on high alert for any comment – intentional or otherwise - that could be interpreted as insensitive, engendering sympathy for the opposite candidate.

Davis' supporters already see some Republican criticism of her as having sexist overtones, such as the derisive nickname "Abortion Barbie." The deeply personal revelations in her memoir made it even harder for her critics to broach the issue without coming across as coldhearted and petty.

Abbott, meanwhile, has increasingly made his wheelchair-bound status a part of his campaign, releasing a well-reviewed ad chronicling his recovery from a paralyzing accident. Earlier this year, Abbott's allies were quick to criticize Democrats after the release of a video purporting to show Davis supporters mocking him for using a wheelchair.

5. How will they address what's likely to be the biggest issue?

The debate's setting all but ensures immigration will emerge as an issue. Residents of the Rio Grande Valley have seen the border crisis up close, and the reporters who are questioning the candidates at the debate likely know the issue inside and out.

Although Abbott supports measures Davis has said would hurt the region, he likely won't shy away from the issue in the debate. His campaign is making an aggressive play for the region, offering to help bus in supporters from across the state, putting up billboards in the area touting his relationship with his Hispanic mother-in-law and staying in the Valley to hold campaign events throughout the weekend.

In any case, the debate gives the candidates an opportunity to crystallize their views on border issues after a summer in which they largely focused on other topics. Both candidates went on the record opposing and supporting Gov. Rick Perry's deployment of the National Guard to the border, but beyond that, immigration simply hasn't been a flashpoint in the race in recent months.