Is Rams running back Todd Gurley worth selecting in fantasy football?

After winning Rookie of the Year in 2015, Los Angeles Rams running back Todd Gurley was often selected in the first round of fantasy football drafts in 2016.

According to The Huddle, Gurley was the player with the fourth-best average draft position in fantasy football. However, his productivity failed to live up to where he was selected and many fantasy teams led by Gurley suffered last season as a result.

In fact, the Los Angeles running back was not shy about responding to folks on Twitter who complained about his poor season. As you can see below, a lot of the fantasy football owners are not rushing back to select the Rams star again this season as his average draft position has dropped.

Why you should draft Todd Gurley

Improved offensive line

The Rams drastically stepped up their game when they added Andrew Whitworth at left tackle this offseason. Pro Football Focus listed Los Angeles as Gurley as the player who will benefit most from free agency. Meanwhile, Robert Woods (who was also signed by the Rams this offseason) is one of the best pass-blocking wideouts in the league and should also help Gurley find a spark on offense.

He is still a top-10 running back

While he may not be the superstar fans expected last season, he can still be a helpful starter for your team. NFL.com’s Michael Fabiano lists him at No. 10 overall for his position, which means in a twelve-team league he has value at the position. Even at his worst, he was still someone worth a roster spot.

Gurley has actually been one of fantasy's most-consistent RBs. Problem is he's been a consistent RB2, not a consistent star.

These words are coming directly from Gurley, who called last season a nightmare and said next year can’t get any worse. With a new head coach, improved confidence should help in Los Angeles for the running back. If Jared Goff can develop more of a rhythm and create some kind of a threat with McVay’s offense like he did with Kirk Cousins in Washington, then Gurley will have a huge relief in the rushing department as well.

Why you should not draft Todd Gurley

Huge rushes created most of his value

Fantasy football expert Ryan Ward explained where this kind of production helped Gurley in the past and why it might not be likely moving forward (via NumberFire):

Gurley’s five largest runs in his career — all occurring in 2015, totaling 275 yards ‚ account for 13.8% of his total rushing yards over two seasons. So if you take the big runs away — which opposing teams were able to do in 2016 — he hasn’t produced well, even in his heralded rookie season.

Last season, Gurley was unable to force the missed tackles needed for the long breakaways he became known for in 2015. If he is going to be a boom or bust runner, fantasy owners will need to trust his potential.

As a rookie, Rams RB Todd Gurley forced a missed tackle once every 5.5 carries. In his second year it was just once every 9.9 carries pic.twitter.com/UakQBIIZRS

While new Rams coach Sean McVay enjoys using running backs as receivers, free agent signing Lance Dunbar (and not Gurley) is expected to receive this added value. Last year, 38 percent of the points Gurley scored in fantasy were scored in the air.

Only worth a selection if you’ve already selected an RB in Round 1

The general consensus right now is Gurley is an RB2 heading into the upcoming fantasy football season. While he obviously has shown flashes of brilliance, you want to trust your first two picks are consistently valuable players. If he begins to slip in your draft, Gurley could be a sleeper. But if he’s in the middle of the second round, it may not be a sure thing you want to bet on quite yet.