Thursday, 30 June 2016

Predictions! Predictions!

So, this election campaign has been a long one, and somehow I've managed to deliver basically nothing. At the very least, I need to put out some predictions -- the other tweaking and experimental stuff will keep for a while.

I'm changing things up, this year, though. I'm not keeping track of my success rate any more - I'm enjoying dabbling in too many unique votes like Brexit, and keep running predictions that "don't count". So screw the tally, lets just go for accuracy as best we can. And that means no more tossups. I'll take a punt on everything now.

Lets start with the basic margin-swing analysis. Here are all of the seats and their margins:

That leaves 9 seats not covered, due to not being Coalition v ALP contests:

BatmanDenisonDurack
FairfaxIndiKennedyMelbourneO'ConnorWills

Palmer is bowing out of Fairfax, and his approval in that seat is famously low. Since his contest was v LNP, I'm giving them that seat.

Durack and O'Connor are intra-Coalition contests, and thus almost
guaranteed to stay with the Coalition under one party or the other. It's
hard to call without data on NAT polling, but the LNP has been urging
Coalition supporters to vote Liberal over minor parties to avoid a hung
parliament. While this doesn't really apply to the NATs it might sway a
few conservatives to back blue over yellow. I predict Coalition holding
these seats.

Batman has the ALP at 10.6% vs the Greens, and Wills has 15.2% ALP v GRN. With both parties increasing their national primary vote by a couple of %, and such safe margins, ALP should hold these seats.

Denison is 15.5% IND vs ALP. There's no applicability of national polling in such a race, but seal-wide polling suggests - as would such a large margin, that Andrew Wilkie will be returned. Indi is much closer at IND 0.3% v LIB, and I have no seat polling for this one. That said, the hit to Coalition numbers, though small, may manifest as IND support in this seat. Tentatively predicting Indi to be held by Cathy McGowan. Kennedy has been safe Katter territory since 1966, excluding a single election in 1990 between Katter Sr and Katter Jr. And Katter's 2.2% is v the LNP, which should lose some support anyhow. Katter will hold this seat.

And that just leaves Melbourne, GRN 5.3% v ALP. Again, both parties have improved their national vote a little, and I have no local polling. I'm going to call this a GRN retain.

Adelaide

ALP

4.0%

6.5%

Aston

LIB

8.2%

5.7%

Ballarat

ALP

4.9%

7.4%

Banks

LIB

2.6%

0.1%

Barker

LIB

16.6%

14.1%

Barton

ALP

4.4%

6.9%

Bass

LIB

4.0%

1.5%

Batman

ALP

10.6% v GRN

N/A

Bendigo

ALP

1.3%

3.8%

Bennelong

LIB

7.8%

5.3%

Berowra

LIB

19.0%

16.5%

Blair

ALP

5.3%

7.8%

Blaxland

ALP

11.2%

13.7%

Bonner

LNP

3.7%

1.2%

Boothby

LIB

7.1%

4.6%

Bowman

LNP

8.9%

6.4%

Braddon

LIB

2.6%

0.1%

Bradfield

LIB

20.9%

18.4%

Brand

ALP

3.7%

6.2%

Brisbane

LNP

4.3%

1.8%

Bruce

ALP

1.8%

4.3%

Burt

LIB

6.1%

3.6%

Calare

NAT

15.0%

12.5%

Calwell

ALP

13.9%

16.4%

Canberra

ALP

7.4%

9.9%

Canning

LIB

11.3%

8.8%

Capricornia

LNP

0.8%

1.7%

Casey

LIB

7.2%

4.7%

Chifley

ALP

10.9%

13.4%

Chisholm

ALP

1.6%

4.1%

Cook

LIB

15.8%

13.3%

Corangamite

LIB

3.9%

1.4%

Corio

ALP

7.8%

10.3%

Cowan

LIB

4.5%

2.0%

Cowper

NAT

13.2%

10.7%

Cunningham

ALP

11.3%

13.8%

Curtin

LIB

18.2%

15.7%

Dawson

LNP

7.6%

5.1%

Deakin

LIB

3.2%

0.7%

Denison

IND

15.5% v ALP

N/A

Dickson

LNP

6.7%

4.2%

Dobell

ALP

0.2%

2.7%

Dunkley

LIB

5.6%

3.1%

Durack

LIB

3.9% v NAT

N/A

Eden-Monaro

LIB

2.9%

0.4%

Fadden

LNP

14.4%

11.9%

Fairfax

PUP

0.03% v LNP

N/A

Farrer

LIB

21.8%

19.3%

Fenner

ALP

12.5%

15.0%

Fisher

LNP

9.8%

7.3%

Flinders

LIB

11.8%

9.3%

Flynn

LNP

6.5%

4.0%

Forde

LNP

4.4%

1.9%

Forrest

LIB

14.0%

11.5%

Fowler

ALP

12.9%

15.4%

Franklin

ALP

5.1%

7.6%

Fremantle

ALP

5.4%

7.9%

Gellibrand

ALP

16.5%

19.0%

Gilmore

LIB

3.8%

1.3%

Gippsland

NAT

15.8%

13.3%

Goldstein

LIB

11.0%

8.5%

Gorton

ALP

16.1%

18.6%

Grayndler

ALP

18.8%

21.3%

Greenway

ALP

3.0%

5.5%

Grey

LIB

13.5%

11.0%

Griffith

ALP

3.0%

5.5%

Groom

LNP

16.5%

14.0%

Hasluck

LIB

6.0%

3.5%

Herbert

LNP

6.2%

3.7%

Higgins

LIB

9.9%

7.4%

Hindmarsh

LIB

1.9%

0.6%

Hinkler

LNP

9.0%

6.5%

Holt

ALP

9.1%

11.6%

Hotham

ALP

7.3%

9.8%

Hughes

LIB

11.8%

9.3%

Hume

LIB

13.6%

11.1%

Hunter

ALP

5.7%

8.2%

Indi

IND

0.3% v LIB

N/A

Isaacs

ALP

3.9%

6.4%

Jagajaga

ALP

3.1%

5.6%

Kennedy

KAP

2.2% v LNP

N/A

Kingsford Smith

ALP

2.7%

5.2%

Kingston

ALP

9.7%

12.2%

Kooyong

LIB

11.1%

8.6%

La Trobe

LIB

4.0%

1.5%

Lalor

ALP

12.2%

14.7%

Leichhardt

LNP

5.7%

3.2%

Lilley

ALP

1.3%

3.8%

Lindsay

LIB

3.0%

0.5%

Lingiari

ALP

0.9%

3.4%

Longman

LNP

6.9%

4.4%

Lyne

NAT

13.6%

11.1%

Lyons

LIB

1.2%

1.3%

Macarthur

LIB

3.3%

0.8%

Mackellar

LIB

18.8%

16.3%

Macquarie

LIB

4.5%

2.0%

Makin

ALP

5.1%

7.6%

Mallee

NAT

23.7%

21.2%

Maranoa

LNP

22.3%

19.8%

Maribyrnong

ALP

11.4%

13.9%

Mayo

LIB

12.5%

10.0%

McEwen

ALP

0.2%

2.7%

McMahon

ALP

4.6%

7.1%

McMillan

LIB

11.8%

9.3%

McPherson

LNP

13.0%

10.5%

Melbourne

GRN

5.3% v ALP

N/A

Melbourne Ports

ALP

3.6%

6.1%

Menzies

LIB

14.5%

12.0%

Mitchell

LIB

21.4%

18.9%

Moncrieff

LNP

18.0%

15.5%

Moore

LIB

12.4%

9.9%

Moreton

ALP

1.6%

4.1%

Murray

LIB

20.9%

18.4%

New England

NAT

19.6%

17.1%

Newcastle

ALP

9.4%

11.9%

North Sydney

LIB

15.7%

13.2%

O'Connor

LIB

0.9% v NAT

N/A

Oxley

ALP

3.8%

6.3%

Page

NAT

3.1%

0.6%

Parkes

NAT

19.9%

17.4%

Parramatta

ALP

1.3%

3.8%

Paterson

ALP

0.4%

2.9%

Pearce

LIB

9.3%

6.8%

Perth

ALP

2.2%

4.7%

Petrie

LNP

0.5%

2.0%

Port Adelaide

ALP

14.0%

16.5%

Rankin

ALP

4.8%

7.3%

Reid

LIB

3.4%

0.9%

Richmond

ALP

1.6%

4.1%

Riverina

NAT

19.0%

16.5%

Robertson

LIB

3.1%

0.6%

Ryan

LNP

8.5%

6.0%

Scullin

ALP

14.4%

16.9%

Shortland

ALP

7.4%

9.9%

Solomon

CLP

1.4%

1.1%

Stirling

LIB

9.0%

6.5%

Sturt

LIB

10.1%

7.6%

Swan

LIB

7.3%

4.8%

Sydney

ALP

12.9%

15.4%

Tangney

LIB

13.0%

10.5%

Wakefield

ALP

3.4%

5.9%

Wannon

LIB

10.1%

7.6%

Warringah

LIB

15.3%

12.8%

Watson

ALP

8.9%

11.4%

Wentworth

LIB

18.9%

16.4%

Werriwa

ALP

6.5%

9.0%

Whitlam

ALP

6.9%

9.4%

Wide Bay

LNP

13.2%

10.7%

Wills

ALP

15.2% v GRN

N/A

Wright

LNP

11.8%

9.3%

So that's the simple prediction. ALP gains 5 seats, all from the Coalition, and the Coalition gains one from PUP for LIB/NAT 84, ALP 62, Other 4 - a clear Coalition majority.

Local Polling

I mentioned the individual seat polling, which can be found here for seats the media has, at times, taken an interest in. I've added an extra column for the most recent seat polling (or, where the most recent poll was a tie, the most recent un-tied poll. These seats are marked with an *)

These seats will be given special, additional consideration, along with Sturt, where local polling suggests a Liberal win but the NXT have been touted for a possible victory, and New England, where the polling had former incumbent IND Tony Windsor close to removing Barnaby Joyce.

Adelaide

labor's Kate Ellis has held this seat since 2004. That's before the 2007 Ruddslide and through the anti-Gillard swings of 2010 and 2013. While her margin was reduced to 4% the swing against the Coalition makes me doubt this poll. This poll is the only one for Adelaid, has the Libs winning 51% to 49% and has by far the smallest polling sample (364 vs minimum 500 elsewhere) of any seat-wide poll this election. I'm calling this poll a dud and keeping ADL with the ALP.

Barker

If anyone had said Barker would be at risk last election they would have been laughed at. The seat has been held by a member of the Liberals or Nationals, or one of their precursors, since it was founded in 1903. The Liberals currently hold it by 16.6% - a safe margin in any election. All of this, however, merely represents a state fortified against the traditional assault from the ALP. The challenge here comes from the NXT, which is a whole other kettle of fish. The poll had a large sample size, and had a 4% gap between NXT and LIB, but I'm still surprised by the whole affair. If I had tossups I'd use one here, but I don't. GI'm giving Barker to the NXT; go hard or go home.

Batman

It seems to me that before elections there's always talk of the Greens taking out another seat. last election it was Grayndler if I recall. not only did they fail, it is not even an ALP v GRN on 2pp terms. Batman is, but it has the ALP ahead by 10.6%. With a sample of over 1000 people, and a 55:45 split in favour of the Greens this looks solid, but only 3 days before another poll had the ALP ahead 53:47. Now, this seat seems incredibly safe from the Coalition but there's something screwey with one of those polls and - despite the sample size - I cannot imagine the greens gaining 10.6% on the ALP in this electoral climate. Batman stays with the ALP.

Burt

Burt. Burt is a new seat, and has no history as a result. The current rating of 6.1% Liberal is therefore an approximation based on the results from polling boothes that now fall in the electorate. But some of those votes may come from outside Burt. I'd love to use a tossup here, but since I can't I'm going to put my faith in Antony Green's adjustments for the seat and the fact that the previous divisions of Canning, Hasluck and Tangney have been pretty Liberal for a while to back the LIBs against the 52:48 poll. Don't these things normally have a error range of 3% anyhow?

Cowan

Cowan is something of a perverse seat, having been Liberal during most of the Howard years, then switching to Liberal with Rudd's victory in 2007. The margin is only 4.5%, or 2% after the national swing - this could easily fall in the natural variation of things. On the other hand, the most recent poll in Cowan was a tie, and the only other poll was ALP by 51:49. So the state polling evidence is very weak, but so is the pendulum evidence and history gives us nothing. Possibly my #1 pick for a tossup, I'm tempted to toss Cowan to an Independent just for the hell of it. Instead... I pick... LIBs?

Dobell

We have four polls for Dobell: 50:50 on May 14, ALP up to 51% by June 11, 53% by June 23 and then down to 49% on June 29. That last poll is close, previous polls favoured the ALP, but then the last poll is veryrecent. Also, I always get caught out in swings to one party by that one contrary seat that swings the other way and gets me unawares. Dobell is only held by the ALP with 0.2%. If any seat will bite me, it should be Dobell. So I'm going to take a risk and put my money on the LIBs here. This would have been my fourth tossup of my allowed seven, for those counting.

Eden-Monaro

Et tu, Eden-Monaro? The famous bell-wether seat, EM has been won by the winning party since 1972. Just on the numbers already (and the campaign so far) it's clear that the outcome shuld either be Coalition majority or minority government. But I think Eden-Monaro is about to burn it's claim-to-fame and side with the ALP. There have been two polls of this seat, both favouring the ALP 55:45. And the seat is held by 2.9% which gets almost entirely ersed by my anticipated 2.5% swing. I wouldn't stake anything on the resiliance of that last 0.4%, so this is my big surprise prediction - Coalition government but ALP in Eden-Monaro.

Grey

Grey, like Barker above and Mayo below is a safe Liberal seat by any normal standard. All three are sitting pretty on a margin of 10% (the traditional definition of "safe") even after the 2.5% swing to the ALP. Unlike the other two, though, Grey actually has been ALP historically, though not since 1993. But for all three seats we can chuck that all out the window, because the NXT vote is eroding LIB support in a way the ALP never could. On paper this should be the first of the three to fall to the NXT, with the less Coalition-dominated history and NXT poll of 54% compared to 52% in Barker and Mayo's most recent polls (although these are more recent and Mayo did beat 54% after Grey). But I cannot shake the feeling that if NXT loses one of its trifecta, it'll be this one. Still, all for one and one for all. I'll give Grey to Xeonphon and hope for the best.

Macarthur

Seat ALP:LIB polling history for Macarthur: 51:49 on May 14, 51:49 on May 19, 50:50 on June 17 and 50:50 on June 25. So the two most recent polls have the seat at a tie, and the old polls only give the ALP a 1% lead. Then again, the seat is only held by 3.3%, or 0.8% after the expected swing. This'll be a close one and my fifth tossup if I had any to spend. Just for the sake of a tie-break the seat has been in Liberal hands since '96, so I'm cautiously expecting them to retain Macarthur.

Macquarie

Macquarie has shuffled between the Coalition and Labor since federation, and is held by 4.5%. This seat is ripe for the picking, but would require double the national predicted swing. That is very far from impossible, and the poll was recent, had a decent sample, and predicted an 8% gap between ALP and the LIBs, so I'll put a modicum of faith in the polling methodology and back the ALP here.

Mayo

Mayo, my own seat, has never been a close contest. It is held by the Liberals' Jamie Briggs by 12.5%, and has been Liberal since the seat was founded in 1984. If this was a suggestion that the ALP would take the seat, I'd dismiss it immediately. The NXT party could well outpoll the ALP because of the latter's minimal chances in the seat, and if those preferences flow away from the Coalition as one would expect, May could be in NXT's pocket. There are actually 3 local polls for Mayo. All have NXT beating the Libs. I'm calling Mayo for NXT.

New England

New England is historically predictable. The Nationals and their forebears have held the seat since before the First World War, with two exceptions. The first was when Country Party candidate Alexander Hay went Independent in 1922 and was replaced that year by Country Party candidateVictor Thompson. The other was when popular Independent Tony Windsor held the seat from 2001 to 2013 when he retired. The seat then went back to high-profile Nationals candidate, deputy Prime minister and Nationals Party leader Barnaby Joyce, who holds the seat by almost 20%. The only local poll has Joyce holding the seat. Why would I put this seat on my review list?

Tony Windsor is coming out of retirement. The only poll we have has Joyce leading 51:49 and that was over a fortnight ago with a smaller sample size. I don't have any data that puts Windsor ahead, but the safety of this seat is largely illusory in my view. I'd make this tossup 6 if i could, but I can't so I'll take the ballsy and empirically unsupported route of calling this one IND.

Page

Page historically has shifted with the tide. It was National for a while under Howard, came to Labor with Rudd and ebbed away again to Abbot. With a 3.1% margin, or 0.6% after the national expected swing, Page is far from safe. We have two recent polls - June 21 and June 23 - both putting ALP ahead (52% and 54% respectively). So I'll back the ALP in Page.

Robertson

Like Page, Robertson is held by 3.1%, or 0.6% after the expected average swing. The seat has had its share of swings, being Liberal under Howard, ALP under Rudd-Gillard-Rudd and LIB again under Abbot-Turnbull. So if the polls were as convincing as in Page, I'd jump to the ALP. Unfortunately they're not. 53% on June 18 is prominsing for Labor, but the previous poll one day earlier had the Libs ahead 51:49. That suggests sampling or methodological issues to me (and maybe all the polls are this unreliable!) so I'll stick to my guns and back the LIBs.

Sturt

And finally, Sturt. Christopher Pyne is a high profile candidate, has a "safe" margin of over 10%, has held the seat since 1993, the seat has been Liberal since 1972, and only been in ALP hands for two short and non-consecutive terms. But Pyne did take a big hit in the Ruddslide, holding the seat by 0.9%. And it's not the ALP Pyne needs to worry about. This seat is the fourth possible NXT victory often described. A May 22 poll hadPyne beating NXT 51:49. But since then, on june 17, Pyne boosted his polling up to 58%, albeit with a smaller sample size. I don't think NXT will do as well here as some have touted. I suspect Pyne will be returned.

And so...

That leaves me with this set of predictions:

DIVISION

CURRENT

PREDICTED

Adelaide

ALP

ALP

Aston

LIB

LIB

Ballarat

ALP

ALP

Banks

LIB

LIB

Barker

LIB

NXT

Barton

ALP

ALP

Bass

LIB

LIB

Batman

ALP

ALP

Bendigo

ALP

ALP

Bennelong

LIB

LIB

Berowra

LIB

LIB

Blair

ALP

ALP

Blaxland

ALP

ALP

Bonner

LNP

LNP

Boothby

LIB

LIB

Bowman

LNP

LNP

Braddon

LIB

LIB

Bradfield

LIB

LIB

Brand

ALP

ALP

Brisbane

LNP

LNP

Bruce

ALP

ALP

Burt

LIB

LIB

Calare

NAT

NAT

Calwell

ALP

ALP

Canberra

ALP

ALP

Canning

LIB

LIB

Capricornia

LNP

ALP

Casey

LIB

LIB

Chifley

ALP

ALP

Chisholm

ALP

ALP

Cook

LIB

LIB

Corangamite

LIB

LIB

Corio

ALP

ALP

Cowan

LIB

LIB

Cowper

NAT

NAT

Cunningham

ALP

ALP

Curtin

LIB

LIB

Dawson

LNP

LNP

Deakin

LIB

LIB

Denison

IND

IND

Dickson

LNP

LNP

Dobell

ALP

LIB

Dunkley

LIB

LIB

Durack

LIB

LIB

Eden-Monaro

LIB

ALP

Fadden

LNP

LNP

Fairfax

PUP

LNP

Farrer

LIB

LIB

Fenner

ALP

ALP

Fisher

LNP

LNP

Flinders

LIB

LIB

Flynn

LNP

LNP

Forde

LNP

LNP

Forrest

LIB

LIB

Fowler

ALP

ALP

Franklin

ALP

ALP

Fremantle

ALP

ALP

Gellibrand

ALP

ALP

Gilmore

LIB

LIB

Gippsland

NAT

NAT

Goldstein

LIB

LIB

Gorton

ALP

ALP

Grayndler

ALP

ALP

Greenway

ALP

ALP

Grey

LIB

NXT

Griffith

ALP

ALP

Groom

LNP

LNP

Hasluck

LIB

LIB

Herbert

LNP

LNP

Higgins

LIB

LIB

Hindmarsh

LIB

ALP

Hinkler

LNP

LNP

Holt

ALP

ALP

Hotham

ALP

ALP

Hughes

LIB

LIB

Hume

LIB

LIB

Hunter

ALP

ALP

Indi

IND

IND

Isaacs

ALP

ALP

Jagajaga

ALP

ALP

Kennedy

KAP

KAP

Kingsford Smith

ALP

ALP

Kingston

ALP

ALP

Kooyong

LIB

LIB

La Trobe

LIB

LIB

Lalor

ALP

ALP

Leichhardt

LNP

LNP

Lilley

ALP

ALP

Lindsay

LIB

LIB

Lingiari

ALP

ALP

Longman

LNP

LNP

Lyne

NAT

NAT

Lyons

LIB

ALP

Macarthur

LIB

LIB

Mackellar

LIB

LIB

Macquarie

LIB

ALP

Makin

ALP

ALP

Mallee

NAT

NAT

Maranoa

LNP

LNP

Maribyrnong

ALP

ALP

Mayo

LIB

NXT

McEwen

ALP

ALP

McMahon

ALP

ALP

McMillan

LIB

LIB

McPherson

LNP

LNP

Melbourne

GRN

GRN

Melbourne Ports

ALP

ALP

Menzies

LIB

LIB

Mitchell

LIB

LIB

Moncrieff

LNP

LNP

Moore

LIB

LIB

Moreton

ALP

ALP

Murray

LIB

LIB

New England

NAT

IND

Newcastle

ALP

ALP

North Sydney

LIB

LIB

O'Connor

LIB

LIB

Oxley

ALP

ALP

Page

NAT

ALP

Parkes

NAT

NAT

Parramatta

ALP

ALP

Paterson

ALP

ALP

Pearce

LIB

LIB

Perth

ALP

ALP

Petrie

LNP

ALP

Port Adelaide

ALP

ALP

Rankin

ALP

ALP

Reid

LIB

LIB

Richmond

ALP

ALP

Riverina

NAT

NAT

Robertson

LIB

LIB

Ryan

LNP

LNP

Scullin

ALP

ALP

Shortland

ALP

ALP

Solomon

CLP

ALP

Stirling

LIB

LIB

Sturt

LIB

LIB

Swan

LIB

LIB

Sydney

ALP

ALP

Tangney

LIB

LIB

Wakefield

ALP

ALP

Wannon

LIB

LIB

Warringah

LIB

LIB

Watson

ALP

ALP

Wentworth

LIB

LIB

Werriwa

ALP

ALP

Whitlam

ALP

ALP

Wide Bay

LNP

LNP

Wills

ALP

ALP

Wright

LNP

LNP

That's 78 seats for the Coalition, 64 for Labor and 8 on the cross-bench, for a Coalition majority government. But you guys already knew that right? It's who holds the balance in the senate that will make this parliament interesting.

2 comments:

I have more faith in your predictions than I ought to, but polls have been lying to me a lot lately. I think it'll be much more heavily to one side or the other, but I can't decide which...I've tossed a coin, and it says Labor. I guess the coin predicts a bigger overall swing across the nation. Silly coin.