This probably isn’t the best day to be Frank Haith. His star player is injured. His Missouri Tigers, once ranked among the nation’s best teams, lost their past two road games by a combined 46 points. Monday afternoon, he learned CBSSports.com was reporting he soon would be charged with unethical conduct by the NCAA.

And from what we know of Haith’s salary, his tax rates took an Earnest Ross-style leap within the past few weeks.

Of course, he very much would like for that last problem to linger a good, long while.

The CBS report indicated that Haith would receive a notice of allegations soon, perhaps this week, in which he would be charged with unethical conduct and failing to promote an atmosphere of compliance in the Miami Hurricanes basketball program, where he was head coach from 2004 through the end of the 2010-11 season. Interestingly, the report also said the NCAA was unable to prove the initial allegation against Haith’s Miami program, that disgraced booster Nevin Shapiro had paid $10,000 to the family of basketball player DeQuan Jones.

Haith’s attorney, Michael L. Buckner of Pompano Beach, Fla., responded to the report in a statement issued to various media outlets, including Sporting News:

“Until my client, Frank Haith, receives a notice of allegations from the NCAA, the CBSSports.com report is premature. The NCAA’s investigation in the University of Miami enforcement case is ongoing. Thus, if the NCAA had completed its inquiry, then coach Haith would have received a notice of allegations. However, as of the morning of Jan. 22, 2013, coach Haith has not received the notice of allegations. Any speculation or information attributed to anonymous sources cannot be relied on until the NCAA makes a final decision on the evidence and issues the notice to the University of Miami and any other persons at-risk in the case.

“It is unfortunate that CBSSports.com’s unnamed source believed violating the NCAA confidentiality rules was worthwhile. The report did not advance anyone’s interests (except the source’s) and is making a mockery of what is supposed to be a fair process. Nevertheless, based on the testimony of my client, the media reports of other persons’ statements and the voluminous records we shared with the NCAA, any allegations asserted by Nevin Shapiro against my client cannot be supported.”

When a report like this drops, even when the notice of allegations eventually does, people want immediate answers regarding what the repercussions will be. It’s a natural impulse. When we as sports fans watch a game, we recognize the general time frame in which the outcome will be available to us.

With an NCAA investigation, however, the final buzzer doesn’t sound until the NCAA enforcement and infractions people get around to it. And even then the outcome isn’t always clear.

There essentially are three elements of the case that will occupy Haith—and, to an extent, Missouri—as it proceeds:

Playing defense

This is complicated for Haith, because coaches sometimes wind up charged with another offense based on how they defend themselves. In NCAA justice, it is the ultimate “rabbit hole” for a coach.

According to CBS, the NCAA did not believe Haith when he said payments from himself to his assistant coaches “intended for camp money did not wind up going to repay Shapiro. A source said that the money was delivered to Shapiro's mother—who verified the payment to the NCAA.”

That’s a tough paragraph to parse. Presumably the NCAA, if it does present this allegation against Haith, will make the nature of its discrepancy with Haith’s response more clear.

In any case, this does underscore the complexity of a coach defending himself against NCAA allegations.

If the NCAA could document a payment to Shapiro, it wouldn’t be reportedly withdrawing the charge and wouldn’t be relying on a more nebulous unethical conduct charge against Haith. The coach might have documents showing he paid his coaches for their work in his summer camp, but what sort of proof could there be of what those men did with the money?

So if it’s totally down to opinion, might not the NCAA enforcement division have a dangerous amount of leeway in charging unethical conduct?

Bruce Pearl, formerly the Tennessee coach, acknowledged that he provided false information to the NCAA and there was photographic evidence that suggested he had. Kelvin Sampson, formerly the Indiana coach, defended himself against charges he engaged in three-way phone calls that violated terms of a sanction against him. The NCAA enforcement department did not believe him, the infractions committee agreed and he got the unethical charge as well.

Planning for the worst

The CBS report indicated Haith might be in line for a “multiple-year” show-cause penalty. Such a finding would, according to the St. Louis Post-Dispatch’s reading of Haith’s contract, give Missouri a trigger to remove him for cause.

The term “show-cause penalty” doesn’t really mean what many people think it does, however. It is not a ban from coaching in college.

As the NCAA’s Stacey Osburn told Sporting News a while back, when the Pearl case was resolved, “A show-cause penalty is issued by the Committee on Infractions and explains how a coach or another administrator must have their athletically-related duties limited, regardless of employer, for a set amount of time. If the person is now employed at a different school than where the violations occurred and they do not agree with the limitations, the school can appear before the committee to ‘show cause’ why they think the penalty should be reduced or changed.”

In the case of Pearl, he was hit with severe recruiting restrictions that would have followed him to any college.

So what Haith and his attorneys must be doing, beyond burnishing his defense, is constructing a plan to cope with whatever sanctions might be included in a show-cause order should he receive one. Haith and his people have to show it can work.

Deciding the future

Missouri chancellor Brady J. Deaton and athletics director Mike Alden ultimately must determine how committed they are to Haith as their coach. The initial decision to hire Haith was widely panned by some analysts and Mizzou fans who merely counted up his NCAA Tournament appearances and gave little consideration to the challenge of building a successful program in a university community that has, historically, shown little passion for basketball.

Haith then won national coach of the year awards in his first Missouri season.

Missouri’s current squad—presuming its issues at the moment are entirely related to the absence of star forward Laurence Bowers (knee) and that he returns soon—remains a threat to win the SEC and to advance deep in the NCAA Tournament. Haith’s first team finished 30-5 and won the Big 12 Tournament, although it was upset in its first NCAA Tournament game.

The Tigers have three prospects committed for the 2013 class, including big man Johnathan Williams III of Memphis, a key member of the United States’ world champion Under-17 squad. There are only three seniors on the roster.

In recent years, coaches who’ve been forced out as the result of infractions cases have seen their rosters largely dissolve. It might be different at Mizzou because the school would not be facing any sanctions itself, but younger players still might want to depart and recruits might want to take a second look at their options. So there could be incentive for Missouri to keep Haith, even if limited by sanctions connected to a show-cause order.

Having been through a similar deal in the mid-2000s with then-coach Quin Snyder, Deaton and Alden simply might be leery and weary of being entangled with the NCAA.