With Anti-Sadrist Bombings, Iraqi Cleric Faces Tough Choice

By Max Fisher

A series of bombings struck Baghdad today, killing at least 58,
including three bombs targeting the compound of Moktada al-Sadr, a Shia
cleric whose anti-American, anti-Sunni streak has not stopped his
political party from winning ten percent of the Parliament in March's
national elections. The attack was presumably launched by the Iraq-based
al-Qaeda branch, two leaders of which were recently killed. Any bombing
in Baghdad is an atrocity, but this incident could be especially
damaging if it inspires Sadr's group to drop its recent democratic
engagement and return to the brutal violence it unleashed in the war's
worst years.

Sadr, as well as being a high-profile religious
figure, leads the Sadrist political party, which primarily represents
the one million residents of Sadr City, an impoverished Baghdad suburb.
He also leads the Jaysh al-Mahdi. Also known as the Mahdi Militia, it
was responsible for years of brutal attacks against Iraq's Sunni Arab
minority. The Mahdi Militia began as part of the Shiite uprising in 2004
to provide security for Sadr City, but later turned to a campaign of
violence against Sunni neighborhoods and mosques. In July 2006, masked
Shiite militiamen, some of whom were likely associated with the Mahdi
Militia, slaughtered 50 civilians in a Sunni neighborhood of Baghdad.
The attack began a sectarian conflict that would claim 3,000 Iraqi lives
that month alone.

The militia's area of control and anti-Sunni
violence continued until March 2008, when Prime Minister Maliki and U.S.
military commanders joined in a campaign against the Mahdi Militia.
They succeeded not only in rolling back much of the Mahdi Militia's
control but in forcing Sadr to recognize the authority of Maliki's
government, backed by the U.S. Since then, Sadr has shifted his energy
from violence to politics, emerging as a "kingmaker" in the split Parliament and
hosting a non-binding vote to demonstrate
his influence. While it's difficult to watch a violent anti-American win
so much power, Sadr's political engagement has so far been a good thing
for Iraqi and American interests. Rather than expressing their desire
for U.S. troops to leave by bombing them, for example, the Sadrists can
pass legislation or make diplomatic entreaties paving the way for
American departure.

Sadr faces a choice between, as Malcolm X put
it, the ballot or the bullet. The great looming danger for Iraq's
nascent democracy is that Parliament's fragile political coalition falls
apart. If the Sadrists feel compelled to abandon their political
engagement for a return to violence, wider political disintegration is a
possibility. While they've given no sign of doing that, increased
attacks from the radical Sunni al-Qaeda terrorists risk spurring the
Sadrists to retaliate. If Sadr can resist the temptation to once again
unleash his militia on Sunni Arabs, then today's attack will be unlikely
to bring a return to sectarian violence. But if the Shiite cleric feels
compelled to retaliate against Sunni neighborhoods, as he did in
response to such attacks during Iraq's worst years, it could mean
precipitous political destabilization or even spiraling sectarian
violence, handing al-Qaeda terrorists exactly what they want.

Update: Sadr has ordered some of his Mahdi militia to reactivate. While
for now he has only told them to guard certain mosques, their presence
on Baghdad's streets risks escalating an already tense situation.