March 25, 2013

Nate Silver says Oregon has only 5% chance of beating Louisville

Uh, oh.

Prediction guru Nate Silver doesn't give the Oregon basketball team much of a chance at beating top seed Louisville in their Sweet 16 matchup. Odds of winning the 2013 NCAA championship are much less, .06% (in boldface).

Oregon (up to 0.06 percent from 0.01 percent) Those who complained that Oregon was underseeded have plenty of evidence in the form of wins against No. 5-seeded Oklahoma State and No. 4-seeded St. Louis. However, the Ducks’ punishment from the bracket makers is not over, as they’ll have to travel across the country to face the No. 1 overall seed, Louisville; the model gives them only about a 5 percent chance of winning that game.

Well, I haven't watched Louisville play this year. But I've seen as many Oregon games as my Pac-12 Network deprived DirecTV receiver allowed.

And I like how the Ducks are looking, especially the last two games. Still, Silver probably is about right with his slim probability of Oregon beating Louisville.

Part of what gives me hope, though, is how likely Silver thought, before the tournament began, that Florida Gulf Coast University would make it to the Sweet Sixteen: 3.3%. Now FGCU is the adored underdog of the tournament.