Gaming Guru

Naysayers unwittingly become 'Yeah'sayers

Some people refuse to accept all the proof in the world. The concept of Expert
Strategy has been proven repeatedly for the past 15 years. There are numerous
writers and mathematicians who can attest to this. They may not call it 'expert
strategy' but the concept is the same. You can throw in the concept of 'penalty'
cards and we're still really talking about the same thing. You play every hand
to maximize the expected value of the hand. This is the best way to maximize
your chances of winning (or losing less) over the long run.

No matter how many times I explain it, no matter how much mathematical evidence
there is, there is always someone who comes along to refute it. It would be
one thing if someone refuted it with mathematical proof of alternate strategies
that perhaps one could ascribe to. Invariably, the proof the naysayer produces
is nothing more than an anecdotal story of how going against the 'experts' proved
to be the right thing to do.

Unfortunately, while stories such as these may make great bar talk, it's hardly
proof of anything, other than once in while luck will shine on even the worst
player. Many years ago, I was playing golf for only the 2nd time in my life.
I was getting ready to make my approach shot, my ball about 20-30 yards from
the pin. My friends were already on the green and they were standing by the
hole waiting for my chip shot. Well, I caught the ball with the edge of my iron,
and sent the ball at what seemed like 100 MPH in a low line drive right for
the hole. My friends scattered. The ball hit a few feet in front of the hole,
bounced and hit the pin square and dropped about a foot from the hole. If I
told you that this is the right way to play such a shot, you'd laugh at me.

But isn't the fact that it worked for me this one time proof that it's the
right thing to do? I don't think so. I remember this story vividly and I love
to tell it. I don't bother telling anyone about the dozens of times I did the
same thing, except for the part where the ball hits the pin, and instead I lose
the ball in the woods on the far side of the green!

Gambling isn't really any different. There are people out there who will love
to tell you about how they went against the 'experts' and still wound up winning.
Of course they did! That's exactly what expert strategy says will happen. Someone
is going to get that Royal Flush when all five cards are thrown away. It really
doesn't matter if it's a Full House that was tossed or 5 lousy cards. If it
happens when you threw away 5 lousy cards, you'll praise expert strategy. If
for some reason it happens when you throw away a playable 3-card Straight Flush
or a 4-Card Straight, you'll scoff at expert play.

But expert strategy isn't about what happens 'one' time. It's about playing
the odds. I can go back out onto that golf course, and you can be sure that
I'll shoot a better score if I learn to chip the ball to the green instead of
sending screaming line drives at the pin and hope I hit it. The irony about
most of these naysayers is that it really isn't the outcome that makes them
naysayers. They really are just looking for a reason to disprove the concept.
You can tell this because most of them don't even really know what proper strategy
is. That's why they'll frequently tell their story and laugh at the experts,
but in the end, it turns out that they in fact are using proper strategy.

I recently stumbled across a post on a Video Poker chat board where someone
was telling of their great fortune by not playing expertly. They had frequently
been fortunate to hit Four Aces with a Kicker on a Double Double Bonus machine
after 'going against the experts' by throwing away their Full House with Three
Aces instead of keeping it intact. Fortunately, someone informed this person
that they were in fact playing according to expert strategy, as the Three Aces
have a considerably higher expected value than a Full House. I wonder how the
original poster felt when they found out they, in fact, had been playing properly
and that it was expert strategy that they could thank for their 'good luck'.
Anecdotal stories aren't all bad!

Elliot Frome is a 2nd generation gaming author and analyst. His father, Lenny Frome was considered one of the premier authors of Video Poker books. Titles include, Expert Video Poker for Las Vegas and Winning Strategies for Video Poker, which includes the strategy tables for 61 of the country’s most popular versions of Video Poker. Check out Compu-Flyers website at www.vpheaven.com, or drop Elliot an e-mail at compuflyers@prodigy.net.

Elliot Frome Websites:

Books by Elliot Frome:

Elliot Frome is a 2nd generation gaming author and analyst. His father, Lenny Frome was considered one of the premier authors of Video Poker books. Titles include, Expert Video Poker for Las Vegas and Winning Strategies for Video Poker, which includes the strategy tables for 61 of the country’s most popular versions of Video Poker. Check out Compu-Flyers website at www.vpheaven.com, or drop Elliot an e-mail at compuflyers@prodigy.net.

Books by Elliot Frome:

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