Monday, June 30, 2008

This is the DemConWatch Senate Forecast, a summary of the best election projections on the web for the 2008 Senate elections. Be sure to check out our Presidential Forecast and our House Forecast. (See July 5th update at bottom).

DCW Senate Forecast: 55.7 (was 55.5). This number is going to move like a glacier, due to the small number of Senate seats having any contest (14), and the number being the average of 8 sites. Today's movement is mostly due to the adding of a new index at fivethirtyeight.com, as well as OpenLeft moving CO and NH to D-Strong.

The DCW Senate Forecast is an average of the projections of the Democratic held seats in the 2009 Senate. (We count Sanders and Lieberman as Democrats in the Senate Forecast. Feel free to subtract one if you so desire!)

CO - Two projections have it as strong D, 4 as Tossup. Udall is up by 9 or 10 points in all 3 June polls.

KY (McConnell): EV.Com has it as a Tossup

MS (Wicker): Rothenberg has it as a "Clear Advantage" for Wicker, but Rasmussen's poll out on 6/24 shows Wicker with a 1 point lead.

NH (Sununu): Shaheen has opened up a 14 point lead in 2 straight polls, but Sununu has a big money advantage.

NM (Open): Cook, who hasn't updated since May 23, has it as a Tossup. Udall has led by 15 points or more in all polls since Mid-May.

The Senate Projection for each source gives Democrats 1.0 seats in a state that is projected solid for the Democrat (or seats that are not up for reelection this cycle), 0.8 seats for a Democrat-Lean, 0.5 seats for a a Tossup, 0.2 seats for a Republican-Lean, and obviously 0 seats for a solid Republican seat or a Republican seat not up for reelection this cycle.

July 5 Update: Only one forecaster has changed in the last week, so we'll note it here rather than do a whole new post. Electoral-vote.com has updated as follows: CO: Dem Lean->Dem Strong. KY: Tossup-> Rep-Lean. MN and NC: Rep-Lean -> Rep-Strong. This changes the EV.com projection to 56, +5, and changes the overall forecast to 55.6.