it was obvious that there would be the usual pro forma "outrage" (since when ISN'T there?), but libs today seem to be losing their emotional continence. melting down like toddlers, shouting, screaming, "choking back tears" in an outburst of performative emotional onanism. it's quite ugly and disturbing and genuinely WEIRD to see putative "adults" act in this fashion.

Saying it in a mixed room of dems/repubs was just fucking stupid. But whatever, he says stupid shit 20x a day. I don't want it all covered.

As for Haiti, the fact a country is a shithole doesn't prevent me from wanting immigrants from the country. I just want the smartest ones -- so I suppose I'm aligned with a skills based immigration policy.

the conversation was not about skill based immigration. sure it doesn't matter where they come from if we are talking about skill based immigration i guess but the conversation was about haitian illegals who lost TPS. so yes haiti being a shithole is definitely a valid argument to be made in that context. I think as POTUS he has to question libs who push for amnesty for illegals from these places

as for as the pussy dems who leaked it its only going to backfire on them bcos most of the country silently agrees with Trump. he probably won MN today

I found it intensely amusing, but mostly because I really wish I could have been a fly on the wall. Would have paid top dollar to see Pelosi's face.

Understand the point you are making, but I'd say Trump's point has broad applicability (since he referenced Norway, which wouldn't be relevant in the context you're attempting to limit it to).

There is a 0.0% chance they take MN.

Trump's incompetence is his saving grace, but I do think his constant upending of the established way of doing things is healthy and entertaining. Both of these parties are morally bankrupt and thoroughly incapable of doing anything that isn't in their immediate, short term interests. Fuck them both.

you realize that MN wasn't even called the night of the election right? it was pretty close in 2016. think about it for a second. this was when he had a pussy tape and questions about what would happen to economy, security etc

what do u think will happen in 2020? economy is doing well, there will no irrational fear that trump would do something rash and destroy america and libs keep doubling down on somalis/SJWs/identity politics.

you are living in SF echo chamber. lol @ believing in approval ratings. its one of the most idiotic arguments ever. hint: those ratings are BS. i am hardcore trumpmo but publicly say that i dont follow politics. nobody wants to admit that they are trump supporters even to pollsters. not to mention sampling methodology etc. so his support is very understated

Trump had extremely low approval ratings even in november 2016. ppl may not like him due to his personality (verbal diarrhea, narcissism, tackiness etc) but those same ppl will vote based on policy (immigration, economy , scotus etc) even if they dislike the candidate personally. think of how many votes roy moore got. he BARELY lost the election despite PEDO allegations

u think a gun owner who is turned off by trump's twitter insults will let somebody like kamala harris win come election day? or a white working class guy who likes Trump's NAFTA policy will stay home election day bcos trump called haiti a shithole or watches too much tv?

If you truly believe that enthusiasm has increased for him during his time in office, I'm just not sure what to say. Every indication is that it is decreasing -- even if you assume the polls are broken they're broken in a consistent way that would allow you to look at relative changes over time.

Given his margin of victory the first time and demographics, it's probably hard to get a win. I do think who the dems run does have an impact on the matter, but he barely eked out a victory against the most unlikeable candidate I can imagine fielding.

As for SF, I don't talk to any of the people here about politics. It's pointless. Xo is pretty much the only place I do it, mostly because of debates like this. You and I are probably never going to agree, but at least it's thought provoking.

once again your mistake is using approval ratings as a proxy for voting tendencies

his approval ratings is going to be less than 50% sure (not 35% but more like 43~47%) which on paper looks bad but you have to understand that personal approval or disapproval is secondary to policy considerations. you think evangelicals approved of trump's personality in 2016? Think of roy moore BARELY losing to Jones despite CREDIBLE PEDO allegations which may the worst thing u can be accused of. at the end of the day partisans will hold their nose and vote for their guy

it will all come down base turnout and enthusiasm and trump will once again turn out millions of white voters who stayed home in 2008, 2012 and even 2016. there is a reason he won PA, MI places that GOP hadnt won in 30 years

It will be a close election and will depend on economy, trump's opponent (kamala/Oprah will be godsend for trump, Roy Cooper or generic southern white guy not so much) and Trump not cucking on immigration

At this point trump is doing great for reelection - economy is doing very well and as you said dems have had zero correction and instead doubled down on white privilege/insanity

GOP is in good shape for 2020 and 2024, 2028 if somebody like Cotton runs. 2032 and after is not going to be good unless they can kick out illegals by then and make immigration a back burner issue. then they can start winning more hispanic vote bcos the only reason hispanics are voting so much for DEMS is that immigration is in the spotlight due to illegals so even conservative hard working tax paying hispanics vote dems. GOP's future depends on ending the illegal immigration pipe line once and for all before 2030 when white vote loses its power to solely decide elections.

You don't see an opposing wave of minority voters? Jones' win was on black voter turnout.

As for increased turnout versus 2016, I just don't see his performance in office and the reaction to it on a raw numbers basis (even when looking at special elections excluding Alabama) saying that enthusiasm is increasing.

I do think there's something to the argument that there's a populist tide and the dems can't harness it in their current position.

It's hard to parse wishful thinking on your part from electoral reality, in part because Trump has made me considerably more suspicious of the value of polling.

dont you work in a startup? u should be good with numbers. look at voting demographics of this country

Forget BULLSHIT media punditry which is full of idiots. the single most important voting demographic is white working class without a college education. they outnumber the entire black population or hispanic population

so the key to both GOP and DEM is this demographic. For DEMS they need to win enough (dumb imo bcos lol @ any white still voting DEM) white voters and make up the rest with minorities. that is far far more important than boosting black turnout from the guaranteed 90% (for roy moore) to 98% for Oprah. Trump just needs to win 1% more white vote and that will make the increased black turnout for Oprah pointless.

Whites were rightly very spooked by Obama and the dem SJW insanity. why do u think white women voted for pussy grabbing Trump over a fucking women? Best thing for Trump is a buckwild minority candidate who is going to be a crazy SJW which will make whites especially working class whites petrified and move towards him. Worst case is somebody like Roy Moore who will kill their fear (dumb white voters again) and they will start thinking about presidential behavior and all other bullshit and give a chance to DEMS.

So it all comes down to white vote . DEMS are guaranteed 90% black vote even if they run a patsy white guy. Boosting that to 98% with Oprah is useless (since blacks are only 12% of population and concentrated in bluish states) if its going to solidify white vote for trump due to their fear of SJW antics.

I for one hope and pray for Kamala. She is literally the best candidate for Trump. even better than Oprah. the worst is Roy Cooper or somebody like him

At least for the next 3 POTUS election cycles it will be the white vote that will solely determine POTUS (thanks to electoral college). The party that maximizes its potential share of white vote will win (Assuming we are not in a recession or fucked up war)

Finally special elections and mid terms are immaterial. Trump has his own coalition just like Obama so DEMS winning VA, AL doesnt matter for 2020 just like how Obama lost badly in mid terms but easily won reelection. It will show up when it matters

Yeah, in a startup but I honestly don't delve into the numbers a whole lot beyond reading on RCP with some frequency. Just don't have the time. Part of the reason I like arguing with people here, it helps refine my views.

Thanks for taking the time to break down your viewpoint. I honestly don't have enough info to determine whether you're full of shit or correct. A lot of it feels like it is accurate in direction but overstated.

I have to say that all of this is incredibly unhealthy for the country. The devolution to pure identity politics is causing us to make some really shitty decisions.

The truth was that Democrats were far more dependent on white working-class voters than many believed.

In the end, the bastions of industrial-era Democratic strength among white working-class voters fell to Mr. Trump. So did many of the areas where Mr. Obama fared best in 2008 and 2012. In the end, the linchpin of Mr. Obama’s winning coalition broke hard to the Republicans.

>>>>

Read the NYT article linked above. thats the only article you need to really understand 2016

Re-read it. Went through it when it was originally published. Not sure how that plays out in 2020 though. Trump won a razor thin margin by making a bunch of promises he won't be able to follow through on against a historically unlikeable candidate. I don't see enthusiasm for him being higher in 2020 nor do I see the candidate being as unlikeable/toxic as HRC (though I do think you've made some accurate predictions about who might inspire a rebellion). So, given the margin in 2016, I think it's entirely reasonable he isn't successful in a re-election bid.

My read on your arguments is that everything you're saying is founded in fact, but all of the contingent variables are assumed to have the best possible outcome. Doesn't mean you're wrong, but it feels like you're too quick to discount alternative explanations. DJT can win, but he isn't unassailable.

Either way, you've been way more convincing than just about any other Trump supporter I've talked to.

obviously trump can easily lose and even with the best case candidate (Kamala) it will be a close election. it wont be 1984 or 1996. i dont think i ever said that Trump is guaranteed to win no matter what. i am just saying that ppl are looking at wrong things (approval ratings, black turnout) rather than the real relevant factors and seriously underestimating his chances

the key to remember is that fear OVERRIDES everything. trump may not achieve anything he promised (nafta, more manufacturing jobs) but if ppl are fearful they will vote for their security. so white working class vote will back him again if kamala keeps talking about white privilege and racial justice. when you look at it from that perspective and electoral college and white vote share in battle ground states (except FL its comfortably more than 70% in most battle ground states) then you see why i am confident about trump's chances

finally he is doing lot of what he promised for white working class. look at auto manufacturing moving back. look at nafta renegotiation. he alone made NAFTA a real campaign issue and is following through on it. ppl will remember that

I view the US as being locked in a competitive race for global dominance as realized via a game changing tech. I want to brain drain the entire world, plough a fuck ton of resources into gifted education programs and generally over invest in R&D. If there's an Einstein out there, I don't want him staying in his home country, I want him here.

Simultaneously, I think the lower quintiles of the population in terms of intelligence are going to be increasingly left behind. It will be the major problem of the next 50 years to solve (what to do when we automate 80% of the jobs away) and increasing the number of people in that category just exacerbates the problem.

you are caring about building facade when foundation is in tatters. having a secure homeland free from subjugation is the most fundamental aspect of nation state. being a technological super power is not going to matter when your grand kid is sent to gulag 2341 for reeducation. no they wont care that you were a open minded liberal who called for the best minds to come to US (assuming u are white)

what fringe libs tried in 1990 became core ideology in 2010. what they tried in 1940 became the core ideology in 1965. that is the essential nature of "progress"

what do you think extremist fringe libs are advocating in 2018? lol @ caring about technological dominance when you are going to have racial quotas and a quasi socialist redistribution govt that is focused on reeducating whites

I think both sides are ridiculous for focusing on identity politics at all. It's a giant waste of time and a distraction from what matters. While we're flailing about, China is beating us in super computing, AI, genetic modification, free energy and just about every other tech that will define the next century.

Lib SJWism is just as toxic to our prospects as protectionism. They both reduce our competitiveness.

Humanity writ large is fucked and I expect that human culture will be fundamentally changed by what's to come. The corrosive effect social media has had on us is just a fraction of what technology will do. I'm prepared to make enormous cultural sacrifices if it means Western thought gets to the tech prize first.

I'm watching people argue about the propriety of the use of the word shithole while watching China beginning to map intelligence genes with the goal of raising the IQ of their population each generation. It's fucking surreal.

why are you so focused on being NUMBER ONE? whats wrong with being number 2? or number 3? germany is not even a superpower but their citizens have a homeland and extremely high QOL

America will always do well technologically due to our demographics and population size. it will be number 1 or number 2 or number 3 and the difference will be insignificant. but what will destroy america as a nation is identity politics and extreme liberal policies - that is what will severely degrade meritocracy, capitalism, rationalism/pursuit of truth and finally real equality

and which side do u think is hellbent on ignoring reality regarding cultures and people? which side do u think will strongly oppose mapping intelligence genes and drawing conclusions based on that? which side do you think will oppose merit based immigration? which side will continue to push for far more affirmative action that will destroy institutions? which side is against western enlightenment, first amendment and calls for hate speech to be illegal? which side do u think will say diversity is more important for selection than rigor or achievement? and finally which side do you think will let govt intrude into every aspect of society, business and enterprise severely weakening freedom and economy?

its not rocket science. demographics is destiny. there is nothing special in the water or in the air in north america or europe that made it great. its the people

Because the difference between #1 and #2 in an environment where one country has a compounding tech is enormous. Think of the effect nuclear weapons had on society -- I think the stuff around the corner is vastly more powerful as an arbiter of world power.

I've already acknowledged that libs are insane. I just think the "bring back coal mining jobs by nuking NAFTA" side is also insane. My depression stems not from the fact that Trump is in power, I assumed a populist would rise sooner or later as automation progressed. I'm depressed because the populist showed up and neither party has paused to consider what that means. Establishment repubs are still pandering their balls off to donors and libs are spending all day every day hyperventilating about the newest outrage.

This century will be defined by our relationship to technology. Our battles over identity politics is toxic and short sighted when you consider that China is progressing along its technical path without the distraction. I think the Chinese expression of technology as a measure of control is incredibly dangerous and the idea that they may be in the position to determine the circumstances by which the next tech is deployed is terrifying (imagine they, rather than us, founded the internet).

You're hung up on left/right as it has been understood for the last 75 years. I'm telling you it doesn't fucking matter and every year we spend focused on it is a year that a homogenous, well organized and well capitalized China is greasing up our shithole.

even from your perspective GOP and Trump are the right answer. they want merit based immigration not dems. they would be open to exploring all possible scientific research interms of AI, genetics than dems. finally and most importantly they will stay the fuck of of the way of tech companies and not waste their time, resources and culture by pushing for quasi quotas, diversity. I dont understand why you are so depressed about Trump's push for fair trade. That doesn't impact technological dominance in any way. renegotiating nafta is irrelevant to maintaining our lead. pushing for SJW based hiring and diversity rather than achievement is more relevant to our technological future than trump's noise on nafta or coal

trump hasnt even proposed anything that will harm our tech edge. he has even backed off on stopping H1-B extensions. at this point the real danger to our tech dominance and super power status is from the left - open borders severely straining national unity, cohesion, tax paying base and SJW culture several degrading meritocracy and free enterprise. libs will completely shutdown any intelligence genes research btw

give it some thought from that perspective. trump's trade or coal policies DONT FUCKING MATTER to what you really care about. and its all exaggerated media bullshit anyway

Historically, I've voted repub more than dem but I'm pretty disgusted at this point.

*Axing TPP was a mistake. Left a huge vacuum for China.

*Re-negotiating NAFTA to bring back manufacturing jobs is a mistake. We traded manufacturing for a vastly higher return on capital, which is what we should be doing.

*The lack of message discipline and other volatility is causing a significant reduction in high quality immigration from abroad, also a mistake.

*Tax reform not being revenue neutral was a mistake -- economy didn't need it, corporations have historically high cash reserves.

None of this is improving our lot. To me, your argument is just that is screws us less than the alternative. But it's hard for me to be enthusiastic about that when I'm watching us lose our position in real time. By the time the culture wars are over, we'll have lost the battle that matters.

*Axing TPP was a mistake. Left a huge vacuum for China - Agree but dont forget that China is fucking up in its own way with its belligerent south china/NK antics. its a wash basically at this point

*Re-negotiating NAFTA to bring back manufacturing jobs is a mistake. We traded manufacturing for a vastly higher return on capital, which is what we should be doing. - lol what? lets just say we disagree here bcos i dont want to type out a 1000 word answer. all i can say is there needs to be balance. protectionism/tariffs is one extreme and our current nafta is another extreme. its ok to move to the center a little bit

*The lack of message discipline and other volatility is causing a significant reduction in high quality immigration from abroad, also a mistake. - link? i havent seen any evidence regarding this. trump has so far done nothing to student visas or reduce H1-Bs. Infact Trump's crackdown on H1-B is better for google/apple as it increases their chances of getting a H1-B than some stupid outsourcing company like TCS or Syntel which uses mediocre indian programmers simply to display american IT workers. If you didnt feel even a little bit angry about Disney

H1-B story then you are beyond any hope. Trump's policies will refocus H1-B to what it is actually supposed to do

* Tax reform - who cares? Dems would have increased deficit by ramping up healthcare spending/welfare. the additional 1T deficit was going to happen anyway. Were you depressed when Obama doubled national debt in just 8 years? At least GOP tax cuts will get some ROI in terms of increased investment and economic growth. better than spending another 1T on keeping boomers alive for 3 more months or yolanda and her anchor babies

we are hurtling towards becoming a rich man's version of India. the resemblance is eerie and uncanny. that is far more important than trump demanding that NAFTA origin content be 85% than 65% or allowing offshore oil drilling/coal mining

you are like every other smart successful lib i deal with IRL. you are so used to fellow smart libs that you forget how societies are built, run, thrive and what motivates/drives ppl. ppl incapable of passing high school math are not going to be motivated by abstract unselfish national interest or technological dominance. lol. it will much more basic and tribal. GIB ME DAT

- I don't care about H1-B. It's just a program for outsourcers at this point. Think it makes almost no sense as currently structured. Would want it to be a path to citizenship with substantially higher standards. If we are selecting on the basis of a lottery, it is by definition too permissive.

- Yes, super depressed re doubling of debt under Obama.

If you have a preferred book on India, I'm interested. Otherwise I'll search AMazon and go with whatever is highest rated.

I agree with your last statement, and the truth of that assessment is what depresses me. I've spent the last years designing systems that exploit how people actually behave versus how they should behave. As a result, I don't expect my viewpoints to be acted upon or be considered viable. But the cost of following our ingrained nature mattered a lot less when transformative technologies weren't springing up every 10 years.

my last response: you are very wrong about traditional ideas of left/right based on identity politics being irrelevant going forward. infact you cant be farther from truth. ppl are still animals completely driven by tribal instincts and you seem to have forgotten that. you may have moved onto the higher evolution plane but 90% of ppl (most whites as well as minorities) havent

our politics will be entirely driven by those traditional left/right tribal concerns rather than some theoretical abstract ideas of tech dominance and super power status. lol @ 50% of america in 2040 that cant do basic alegbra caring about genetics research than how to mandate job quotas and welfare

you are right that we will be distracted by bullshit but it wont be trump's coal policies that distract us. it will be left trying to make women navy seals and black harvard math PhDs happen

Brother, my point is that we're up against a homogenous society that is top down and well capitalized. As long as we're internally divided, we're not going to win.

I fully grasp the importance of these things to most people. They care because they don't realize that the tribe that matters is that we're all Americans. I imagine the next major war will help us remember that.

you're aligned with trump then. the comment apparently came in the context of why should we have quotas from particular 'shithole' countries. he was arguing for a points based system which doesnt give people from certain countries any preference

I think our preferred policies would rhyme but not align. I'm open to very generous immigration for high intelligence -- effectively I'd be ok with flooding the country so long as the IQ was 130+.

I view the US as being in a global race for control over the next game changing tech and I'm adamantly against doing anything that makes it less likely we win against a country like China.

So, for example, I'm very in favor of free trade agreements so long as they come at China's expense (would have signed TPP in a heartbeat). I don't think it's possible to win this battle through protectionism.

the problem with using immigrants to develop gamechanging technologies on behalf of your country is that there is nothing keeping them from handing them over to their country of origin (basically what china has bee doing for quite some time now due to our over-reliance on immigrant engineers/scientists).