Coronavirus will likely accelerate the urbanization of Texas

We must begin now to prepare for our new normal.

Plano residents who are ticked off about all the traffic, construction and apartments unsuccessfully voted to stop urban growth in the city in the face of thousands of people moving to the area.(Jae S. Lee / Staff Photographer)

With so little reliable data about the short-term effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, it may seem premature to speculate about what will come after. But one thing is for certain: Texas will be even more urban than it was before, a new normal for a state that prides itself on bluebonnets and its wide-open spaces.

Major disruptions tend to accelerate existing trends. Already, 8 out of 10 Texans live in cities and metropolitan areas, which run the gamut from global centers like Dallas, Fort Worth and Houston to startup hubs like Austin, border cities like El Paso, college towns, and oil patches.

Our Texas cities will become ever more important, because the same things that made them vulnerable to COVID-19 — their international connectivity, dense living patterns, and gathering spaces — will also make them the engines of our recovery, powered by the cutting-edge industries that cluster in them, like software, fin-tech, tech-driven manufacturing, aerospace and renewables.

To ensure that the state’s recovery is as robust and sustainable as it can be, our local and state governments must forge new partnerships with universities, nonprofits and businesses to help our communities.

Our new normal is likely to feature a shift in the state’s political center of gravity, along with a new set of spending priorities. Here’s how I see it:

Texas city and county leaders stepped up to lead. There can be no turning back. Before COVID-19, the Texas Legislature moved to strip power from cities. In the heat of the crisis, those cities’ leaders spearheaded the state’s response.

Austin’s brave decision to cancel SXSW saved it from being the hot spot that New Orleans is now, a month after the Mardi Gras celebration went on as scheduled. As a Texan, I am grateful to our city and county leaders for standing up as they did. And as a small-c conservative, I am heartened to see that the leaders who are the closest and most accountable to the people made the right decisions.

Though America suffered from the lack of a nationally coordinated response to the pandemic, the recovery will work best if it’s orchestrated by its localities. Odessa is different from El Paso; Austin is different from Richardson. Every city has different needs and priorities. If Texas state leaders truly value conservative government, they will allow local leaders to decide where and how they need to invest.

We can’t cut our way to prosperity. Given the depth and breadth of the economic crisis, communities across the state will be under pressure to slash their budgets. Certainly, they should invest more strategically, and some belt-tightening will be called for. But now is not the time to stint on economic development and workforce development; both are crucial for our future success.

Texas must invest in Texans. For too long, Texas’s growth strategy has focused on attracting outside businesses to the state with the lure of its favorable business climate. But Texas can’t neglect its own. Our homegrown, mom-and-pop enterprises are the life’s blood of our economy and the souls of our communities; it’s time that they got some attention too.

And too many Texans have been behind, even at the height of the boom. We need to invest more in tuition assistance, onsite training and apprenticeships to help under- and unemployed Texans learn new skills.

Our service workers, many of them immigrants, must be treated as the vital contributors to our communities that they are. COVID-19 opened our eyes to the true meaning of “essential jobs.” Grocery store employees, warehouse pickers, delivery people, home health aides and nurses’ assistants emerged as heroes; they and other service workers deserve better pay, and sick and family leave. When Austin mandated this, the state struck it down. Some companies, like the grocery chain HEB, are now doing it voluntarily. When the Legislature reconvenes in 2021, these vital workers must receive the thanks they deserve.

Cities will drive the recovery, but they must be made safer and more resilient. Texas has learned the hard way that climate change and economic inequality are systemic threats to its cities. The pandemic has made it clear that public health planning, like planning for natural disasters like storms, heatwaves and floods, and unnatural disasters like terrorism, industrial accidents and civil disturbances, must also be high on the agenda. We must start to look toward the future now.

Thanks to its cities, Texas will come back. The sooner we set our investment priorities, the stronger our recovery will be for every Texan.

Steven Pedigo is a professor of practice at the Lyndon B. Johnson School of Public Affairs at the University of Texas at Austin and the director of the LBJ Urban Lab. He wrote this column for The Dallas Morning News.