Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 190706
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0206 AM CDT WED MAR 19 2008
VALID 191200Z - 201200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SRN TX...
...SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE NEWD OUT OF THE
LOWER MS VALLEY THIS MORNING INTO THE OH VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON WITH
A COLD FRONT TRAILING SWWD ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS AND ERN GULF OF
MEXICO BY LATE TODAY. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SPREAD SEWD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS...WITH GUSTY WINDS AND LOW
HUMIDITY CREATING CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS FOR DEEP S TX.
ELSEWHERE...A WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL FORM OVER SD WITH A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDING SWD INTO NEBRASKA AS A LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER
SHORTWAVE MOVES SEWD. GUSTY WINDS AND LOWERING RH WILL OCCUR ACROSS
MUCH OF WRN NEB AND SD AS A RESULT. FARTHER W...A WEAK UPPER RIDGE
WILL HELP CREATE WARM AND VERY DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE SWRN STATES
BUT WITH LIGHT WINDS.
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - SRN TX...
PRIMARY CONDITIONS: GUSTY WINDS AND VERY LOW HUMIDITY
STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL BE ONGOING THIS MORNING AND WILL PERSIST FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. SUSTAINED NWLY WINDS OF
15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 20-30 MPH WILL BE COMMON. TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM INTO 70S TO LOWER 80S...BRINGING RH LEVELS DOWN INTO THE TEENS
NEAR THE RIO GRANDE TO THE 20 PERCENT RANGE FARTHER E TOWARD THE
MIDDLE TX COASTAL PLAIN.
...NRN HIGH PLAINS...
A SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WITH WLY WINDS OF
20-25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS BEHIND IT. DOWNSLOPE FLOW...HEATING AND
MIXING WILL ALSO DROP RH VALUES INTO THE 15-25 PERCENT RANGE BY
AFTERNOON...THUS RESULTING IN A MARGINAL FIRE THREAT. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL MAINLY RANGE FROM 55-60 F.
..JEWELL.. 03/19/2008
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 190710
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0210 AM CDT WED MAR 19 2008
VALID 201200Z - 211200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR ERN NM...W TX...NWRN OK...SWRN
KS...FAR SERN CO...
...SYNOPSIS...
A LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CNTRL ROCKIES INTO
THE NRN PLAINS THU...WITH DEEPENING SURFACE LOW OVER KS AND SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDING SWWD INTO ERN NM. VERY STRONG SLY WINDS WILL
MATERIALIZE OVER THE CNTRL AND SRN PLAINS WITH CRITICAL FIRE
CONDITIONS FOR THE SRN HIGH PLAINS. TO THE E...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SETTLE INTO THE GULF COAST STATES AS A STRONG COLD FRONT CONTINUES
EWD OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC. LOWERING RH VALUES AND GUSTY WINDS WILL
OCCUR ACROSS MUCH OF THE SERN STATES WITH A MARGINAL FIRE THREAT.
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - ERN NM...W TX...NWRN OK...SWRN
KS...FAR SERN CO...
PRIMARY CONDITIONS: STRONG WINDS AND LOW RH
A VERY DRY AIR MASS LEFT BEHIND BY HIGH PRESSURE WILL MODIFY QUICKLY
WITH STRONG HEATING AND INCREASING SLY WINDS. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS
OF 20-30 MPH ARE LIKELY OVER THE ENTIRE CRITICAL AREA WITH HIGHER
GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH FROM ERN NM ACROSS THE TX AND OK PANHANDLES. MIN
RH WILL BE QUITE LOW...AVERAGING 10-15 PERCENT. THE FIRE THREAT MAY
APPROACH EXTREME LEVELS ACROSS THE HEART OF THE CRITICAL AREA.
THE ERN EXTENT OF THE CRITICAL AREA IS BEING MODULATED BY RECENT
PRECIPITATION AS WELL AS BY MARGINAL RH VALUES.
...AZ INTO WRN NM...
MODERATE ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE REGION WILL COMBINE WITH A DRY AIR
MASS IN PLACE TO CREATE A MARGINAL FIRE THREAT BY AFTERNOON. WLY
WINDS OF 15-25 MPH WILL BE COMMON FROM NERN AZ INTO NWRN NM...BUT
TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY BE IN THE 60S. FARTHER S...WARMER
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AND 80S WILL CREATE LOW RH IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS TO TEENS FROM SERN AZ INTO SWRN NM...HOWEVER...SUSTAINED WIND
SPEEDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH CRITICAL CRITERIA.
...MUCH OF TX INTO OK...
A DEEPENING LOW OVER KS WILL COMBINE WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
LOWER MS VALLEY TO PRODUCE AN INTENSE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
STRONG WINDS OVER ALL OF THE SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS THURSDAY.
SUSTAINED SLY WINDS OF 15-20 MPH WILL OCCUR ACROSS CNTRL
TX...INCREASING TO 20-40 MPH FARTHER N INTO OK AND SRN KS. THE
EFFECTS OF RECENT PRECIPITATION ALONG WITH MARGINALLY LOW MIN RH
VALUES OF 25-30 PERCENT SHOULD RESULT IN ONLY A MARGINAL FIRE THREAT
DURING THE DAY.
...SERN STATES FROM NRN FL INTO THE CAROLINAS AND VA...
IN THE WAKE OF THE WED NIGHT COLD FRONT PASSAGE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SETTLE INTO THE SERN U.S. BRINGING VERY DRY CONDITIONS TO A LARGE
PART OF THE SERN CONUS. LOW HUMIDITY VALUES...RANGING FROM THE UPPER
TEENS TO 20S WILL AFFECT MOST OF THE AREA. IN ADDITION...NLY WINDS
OF 10-15 MPH WILL OCCUR FROM FL INTO GA...WITH HIGHER SPEEDS OF
15-20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS FROM THE CAROLINAS INTO VA. THE MAIN
MITIGATING FACTOR TO A DAY 2 CRITICAL AREA WILL BE HOW MUCH
PRECIPITATION FALLS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE. KBDI
VALUES ACROSS THE REGION WERE ALREADY QUITE LOW...SUGGESTING A
MINIMAL THREAT OF SIGNIFICANT WILD FIRES ALTHOUGH THE LOW RH COULD
YIELD NEW STARTS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
..JEWELL.. 03/19/2008
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...