TY - JOUR
T1 - MRCA time and epidemic dynamics of the 2019 novel coronavirus
JF - bioRxiv
DO - 10.1101/2020.01.25.919688
SP - 2020.01.25.919688
AU - Zhang, Chi
AU - Wang, Mei
Y1 - 2020/01/01
UR - http://biorxiv.org/content/early/2020/01/31/2020.01.25.919688.abstract
N2 - The 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) have emerged from Wuhan, China. Studying the epidemic dynamics is crucial for further surveillance and control of the outbreak. We employed a Bayesian framework to infer the time-calibrated phylogeny and the epidemic dynamics represented by the effective reproductive number (Re) changing over time from 33 genomic sequences available from GISAID. The time of the most recent common ancestor (MRCA) was December 17, 2019 (95% HPD: December 7, 2019 – December 23, 2019). The median estimate of Re shifted from 1.6 to 1.1 on around January 1, 2020. This study provides an early insight of the 2019-nCoV epidemic. However, due to limited amount of data, one should be cautious when interpreting the results at this stage.
ER -