OTO 061/1999

Review of probabilistic inspection analysis methods.

Methods currently used in probabilistic inspection analysis for
predicting fatigue crack growth in tubular joints in jacket
structures are assessed in particular on recent research and
development. Considers both SN and fracture mechanics approaches to
represent the resistance. Alternative procedures to determine the hot
spot stress due to wave loading are examined,considering the
following issues: hydrodynamic loading; joint flexibility; the pile
-soil flexibility and stress concentration factor. Probabilistic
measures of the uncertainty associated with the models and parameters
are assessed. Recent information about the probability of crack
detection is examined. Evaluates the reliability methodology used to
determine the component and systems failure probability. Gives
recommendations for improved mechanics and probabilistic
modelling.