Probability Chart of Results of Test Mailings

When you undertake a marketing activity that produces a result it would be great to know that if you repeated it, the same result would occur or if you did twice the amount, you would get twice the return and so on. Of course, there is no certainty. Nevertheless, the larger the sample size of the first test, the more confidently you can predict the results of additional marketing activities based on the probability of the result. The following table on the next page shows how to be 95% sure that additional mailings will produce a result within certain boundaries.

If the size of the test mailing is

And the return on the test mailing is

Then 95 chances out of 100, the return on the identical mailing on the whole list will be between

If the size of the test mailing is

And the return on the test mailing is

Then 95 chances out of 100, the return on the identical mailing on the whole list will be between

100

1%

0 & 2.99%

250

1%

0 & 2.26%

100

2%

0 & 4.80%

250

2%

0.23% & 3.77%

100

3%

0 & 6.41%

250

3%

0.84% & 5.16%

100

4%

0.08% & 7.92%

250

4%

1.52% & 6.48%

100

5%

0.64% & 9.36%

250

5%

2.24% & 7.76%

100

10%

4.00% & 16.00%

250

10%

6.20% & 13.80%

100

20%

12.00% & 28.00%

250

20%

14.94% & 25.00%

500

1%

0.11% & 1.89%

1,000

1%

0.37% & 1.63%

500

2%

0.75% & 3.25%

1,000

2%

1.12% & 2.88%

500

3%

1.48% & 4.52%

1,000

3%

1.92% & 4.08%

500

4%

2.25% & 5.75%

1,000

4%

2.76% & 5.24%

500

5%

3.05% & 6.95%

1,000

5%

3.62% & 6.38%

500

10%

7.32% & 12.68%

1,000

10%

8.10% & 11.90%

500

20%

16.42% & 23.58%

1,000

20%

17.48% & 22.52%

2,000

1%

0.55% & 1.45%

5,000

1%

0.72% & 1.28%

2,000

2%

1.37% & 2.63%

5,000

2%

1.60% & 2.40%

2,000

3%

2.24% & 3.76%

5,000

3%

2.52% & 3.48%

2,000

4%

3.12% & 4.88%

5,000

4%

3.45% & 4.55%

2,000

5%

4.03% & 5.97%

5,000

5%

4.38% & 5.62%

2,000

10%

8.66% & 11.34%

5,000

10%

9.15% & 10.85%

2,000

20%

18.21% & 21.70%

5,000

20%

18.87% & 21.13%

10,000

1%

0.80% & 1.20%

100,000

1%

0.94 & 1.06%

10,000

2%

1.72% & 2.28%

100,000

2%

1.91% & 2.09%

10,000

3%

2.66% & 3.34%

100,000

3%

2.89% & 3.11%

10,000

4%

3.12% & 4.39%

100,000

4%

3.88% & 4.12%

10,000

5%

4.56% & 5.44%

100,000

5%

4.86% & 5.14%

10,000

10%

9.40% & 10.60%

100,000

10%

9.81% & 10.19%

10,000

20%

19.20% & 20.80%

100,000

20%

19.75% & 20.25%

How We Can Help You.

We can assist you in setting up measurement systems to statistically predict the probability of future marketing activities.

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