"Politicians from one side are saying they will abolish RS, while politicians from the other side are playing with the idea of separating from BiH. That is deeply immoral, and the international community will never allow it," he told reporters in Sarajevo.

On Saturday, RS Prime Minister Milorad Dodik said the entity would secede from BiH if Lajcak removes him from his post.

On Friday, Croatian President Stipe Mesic said the international community should stop tolerating Dodik's threats of secession. RS is a powder keg that can blow up any moment, he warned.

If the entity splits from BiH, Bosnian Croats would do the same, he told German magazine Der Spiegel.

I'm not sure that the author has the faintest clue what (s)he's talking about.

Written by a low-level lobbyist on behalf of the SDA, perhaps?

rickshaw-major, I think we should create a seperate thread if we wish to follow this up - possibly in the Int Cell????

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I agree with your synopsis - somebody is scaremongering - so somebody must want somenthing

I won't start a thread yet because as you know in this area everyone has an angle. Look at Croatia and Slovenia. Some of the arguments are already at the Ustashe stage and it won't be long before Austria-Hungary is in and BINGO - we are back in the 15th Century.

âBosnia's political leaders continue to prey on their countrymen's ethnic prejudices and insecurities. Haris Silajdzic - the Muslim in Bosnia's three-member presidency - has called for the Serbian Republic inside of Bosnia to be abolished. The Bosnian Serb prime minister, Milorad Dodik, who is supported by Russia, has talked about secessionâ.http://www.iht.com/articles/2009/02/23/opinion/edbosnia.php

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Haris Silajdzicâs - the Muslim in Bosnia's three-member presidency - call for the Serbian Republic inside of Bosnia to be abolished, is of course against the Dayton Agreement. Silajdzic does not seem to appreciate that the Dayton Agreement is not a case of âpick-and-mixâ. He simply cannot re-negotiate only part of it! He wants to un-pick part of the Dayton Agreement, then the whole damn thing must be put back on-the-table !!

The Serbs would like to secede, and seem to be playing a clever enough game. The Serbs allow the Muslims to make all the ârunningâ (with their protestations), and the Serbs are then only seen to be reacting to Muslim âoppressionâ.

TIGER-MONKEY said:

Personally it would be great if they did start slaughtering each other again. Loads more work and job security for me and my pension.

However, on a more serious note, I do not expect another Balkans war to break out in the near future - shame!

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A happy medium (with secured employment for a lot of us !!), devoid of unnecessary bloodshed and killing - would be for the tensions to escalate to the extent that the âInternational communityâ (UN) considered it necessary to intervene; keep the potentially warring factions apart; and, declare the IEBL (Inter Ethnic Boundary Line), to be a de facto International Border separating/dividing the Croat/Muslim Federation, from Republika Srpska (RS).

However, that of course requires the âInternational communityâ (UN) to have a degree of perception not hitherto evident; and, a willingness and ability to react to perceived threats - rather than waiting for the inevitable international outcry from documented evidence of burnt out houses containing the scorched remains of the former inhabitants!!

Sorry that is not good enough for me. I need the war crimes for my work.

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My âhappy mediumâ hypothesis, really depended on so many improbable miracles happening amongst the âInternational communityâ (UN), that unfortunately I would certainly NOT rule out your specialist skills again being required !!

A happy medium (with secured employment for a lot of us !!), devoid of unnecessary bloodshed and killing - would be for the tensions to escalate to the extent that the âInternational communityâ (UN) considered it necessary to intervene; keep the potentially warring factions apart; and, declare the IEBL (Inter Ethnic Boundary Line), to be a de facto International Border separating/dividing the Croat/Muslim Federation, from Republika Srpska (RS).

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I'll bow to the regional experts here, but I seem to remember a lot of my time in that neck of the woods being more or less spent shouting, "Ne putcai Musselmanije!"* at the Croats. Is it likely that the Federation would fragment again if tensions got to the point the RS seceeded?

*Apologies to anyone whose culture I may have offended. Unless you supported Tudjman in which case you can fuck off.

I'll bow to the regional experts here, but I seem to remember a lot of my time in that neck of the woods being more or less spent shouting, "Ne putcai Musselmanije!"* at the Croats. Is it likely that the Federation would fragment again if tensions got to the point the RS seceded?

*Apologies to anyone whose culture I may have offended. Unless you supported Tudjman in which case you can fuck off.

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Your are quite right "smartascarrots". May I refer you to the original post (repeated below), that prompted me to start this thread - particularly that part coloured blue!

There is no affinity between the two âethnicitiesâ that comprise âthe Federationâ.

I am reminded of my time serving with HQ MND SW. I have it on very good authority, that whenever SFOR called together the military leadership of the three âethnicitiesâ the Croats and Serbs would huddle together - discussing and planning how they would resume actions against the Muslims.

"Politicians from one side are saying they will abolish RS, while politicians from the other side are playing with the idea of separating from BiH. That is deeply immoral, and the international community will never allow it," he told reporters in Sarajevo.

On Saturday, RS Prime Minister Milorad Dodik said the entity would secede from BiH if Lajcak removes him from his post.

On Friday, Croatian President Stipe Mesic said the international community should stop tolerating Dodik's threats of secession. RS is a powder keg that can blow up any moment, he warned.

If the entity splits from BiH, Bosnian Croats would do the same, he told German magazine Der Spiegel.

In spite of âinternationalâ pressure and initiatives to encourage displaced (Croat and Muslim) people to return to Republika Srpska (RS), very few have !! Virtually all of Republika Srpska's population is now eastern orthodox Serb.

When Bosnia does â . . . Really Kick Off Againâ, the Serb action will largely be confined to securing the IEBL, and retaking the Gorazda corridor.

The main action (that will interest âTIGER-MONKEYâ), would be between the Croats and the Muslims - as the Croats establish a dominance over and throughout the Federation before it is assimilated into Croatia proper.

What would be left - would be the Muslim populated rump âcity stateâ of Sarajevo, confined to the relatively easily geographically defined Sarajevo basin.

The BBCâs Radio 4 âThe World Tonightâ 22:00â22:45 âNational and international news and analysis with David Eadesâ, just concluded with a piece on Bosnia - speculating on the viability of the UNâs High Representativeâs ambition to leave Bosnia by the end of this year (2009).

I'll bow to the regional experts here, but I seem to remember a lot of my time in that neck of the woods being more or less spent shouting, "Ne putcai Musselmanije!"* at the Croats. Is it likely that the Federation would fragment again if tensions got to the point the RS seceeded?

*Apologies to anyone whose culture I may have offended. Unless you supported Tudjman in which case you can fuck off.

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Is there enough of a federation left for anyone to breakaway from it ? I was under the impression the Croats only stay in Croat areas , the Bosniaks in Bosnian areas and the Serbs in Serb areas hence there's no one to go fighting with . sounds like a recipe for peace to me

If it does kick off again, will I be able to double my CD collection again and do you think they have more up to date porn now?

Spanny, although they are in seporate areas it would be likely that they would kick off because the religion has that field and that religion has that mountain. It would be over control of land this time and not started by a football match.

Is there enough of a federation left for anyone to breakaway from it ? I was under the impression the Croats only stay in Croat areas, the Bosniaks in Bosnian areas and the Serbs in Serb areas hence there's no one to go fighting with. Sounds like a recipe for peace to me

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I suspect Spanny, that you are using the word âfederationâ rather loosely, and incorrectly, to refer to the whole of B-i-H.

You are quite correct - that as much as is physically and geographically possible - the three ethnicities DO wish to, and have largely achieved a situation in which they now, live in autonomous communities. However, as "terroratthepicnicâ states, even within the largely autonomous geographical communities, there are still inconsistencies when a different â . . . religion has that field and that (different) religion has that mountainâ.

Such is the autonomous nature of Republika Srpska, that it would be quite possible for it to secede from B-i-H, with little of no (direct) ramifications to the other two communities that constitute "the Federation".

With the IEBL (International Ethnic Boundary Line) being the most fastidious and meticulously designated boundary in existence, there is now no disagreement on what geographically constitutes Republika Srpska. It would be very unlikely therefore that there would be any disagreement on what would be the boundary of a newly independent and internationally recognised country of Republika Srpska.

It is inevitable that the new millennia âKosovoâ doctrine of international relations and recognition (in which any community can secede and declare itself an independent country), will turn round and bite the ARRSE of the main proponents of the policy . . . Vice President Joe Biden, and the rest of the USA Government.

". . . now the REPUBLIKA SRPSKA has started to live." Christian Schwarz-Schilling, EU special representative in charge of the international protectorate for Bosnia-Herzegovina. (Financial Times. Published: 31 Jul 2006).

Carl Bildt, the first high representative after Dayton, says REPUBLIKA SRPSKA has become "as permanent as Scotland". (Financial Times. Published: 31 Jul 2006).

"Politicians from one side are saying they will abolish RS, while politicians from the other side are playing with the idea of separating from BiH. That is deeply immoral, and the international community will never allow it," he told reporters in Sarajevo.

On Saturday, RS Prime Minister Milorad Dodik said the entity would secede from BiH if Lajcak removes him from his post.

On Friday, Croatian President Stipe Mesic said the international community should stop tolerating Dodik's threats of secession. RS is a powder keg that can blow up any moment, he warned.

If the entity splits from BiH, Bosnian Croats would do the same, he told German magazine Der Spiegel.

This then becomes âinterestingâ, because the separation of the Croat and Muslim entities within âthe Federationâ, has not (yet) been anticipated - perhaps with the exception of certain offices in Zagreb !!

The separation of the Croat and Muslim entities within âthe Federation will not be as easily accomplished as the cessation of Republika Srpska from B-i-H; and it is suggested is the reason Bosnia really WILL kick-off again.

If I can repeat myself from above:

RCT(V) said:

When Bosnia does â . . . Really Kick Off Againâ, the Serb action will largely be confined to securing the IEBL, and retaking the Gorazda corridor.

The main action (that will interest âTIGER-MONKEYâ), would be between the Croats and the Muslims - as the Croats establish a dominance over and throughout the Federation before it is assimilated into Croatia proper.

What would be left - would be the Muslim populated rump âcity stateâ of Sarajevo, confined to the relatively easily geographically defined Sarajevo basin.