Coronavirus: HoReCa market hit hard

On 14 March 2020, an epidemic threat state was introduced in Poland and a number of restrictions were announced to stop the spread of coronavirus (SARS-CoV2, Covid-19) in the country. Overnight, the HoReCa industry found itself in a completely different reality – the activity of restaurants was limited only to providing delivery and take-away services. On 24 March the restrictions were extended to 11 April 2020.

Restaurants closed to guests

On 14 March 2020, an epidemic threat state was introduced in Poland and a number of restrictions were announced, including the reintroduction of border controls, a ban on foreigners’ entry into Poland (with exceptions), and the suspension of international flights and railway connections.

The activity of restaurants, pubs, bars and other catering establishments was limited only to the possibility of delivering food and take-away services.

Future of HoReCa depends on how long restrictions last

Before the coronavirus epidemic reached Poland, PMR predicted a 5% annual growth of the HoReCa market in 2020 (under the assumption of no epidemic in Poland). At the beginning of the year, when the coronavirus in Poland was only a little known disease from Asia, the mood of the representatives of the HoReCa industry was at its worst since 2015. At that time, inflation of food product prices was a threatening factor of increasing importance.

Unfortunately, the coronavirus reached Poland. The government undertook a number of actions aimed at limiting the development of the number of the disease, including, among others, limiting the operation of catering establishments only to the activity of transporting and serving take-away dishes. Overnight, restaurants, cafés, pubs and other places lost the possibility to receive guests in the premises – at first for two weeks.

The fact that the introduced restrictions will have a negative impact on the HoReCa market is not subject to discussion. However, it is not decided how long they will last, and the future of the HoReCa market depends to a large extent on that now. As the situation is developing dynamically and it is extremely difficult to predict its further development, PMR has considered three scenarios. In the first one – restrictions for two weeks – we forecasted a significant reduction in the growth rate of the market’s value in the whole of 2020 compared to the base scenario, in which we artificially assumed no epidemic in Poland.

On 24 March, it turned out that the two-week restrictions were extended to 11 April, i.e. for one month. When preparing forecasts for the market, we took into account the scenario of two months’ closure of restaurants. We also considered a third, even more pessimistic scenario: extending the restrictions to two months and returning the disease in the autumn. Our analysis shows that the extension of the restrictions to two months will bring a reduction in the value of the HoReCa market in 2020 compared to the previous year. This concerns all market segments – hotel catering, catering and restaurant market. It will be similar in the third scenario, but in this case the falls will be even stronger, and the situation may change irreversibly due to the disappearance of some players.

Cafes and alcohol bars suffer most

The only permitted form of restaurant activity was to offer take-away and delivery dishes. However, this does not in any way save cafés or alcohol bars that do not operate in these sales channels. Moreover, for some restaurants, delivery has so far been rather an additional source of income and it will be difficult for such restaurants to make a living just from offering take-away or delivery. In addition, the offer of some restaurants, e.g. premium restaurants, is not suitable for delivery. Pizzerias are in a much better situation – in this segment, most of the restaurants have been operating on delivery for years and Poles are used to ordering this type of dishes. The offer of fast food bars can also be easily delivered or taken away.

The Ministry of State Assets (MEP) is working on the merger of companies from the agri-food sector, which are under state supervision. The National Food Holding (NHS) is to be established in this way.

June: selection of companies for the holding company

The consolidation will be based on the Krajowa Spolka Cukrowa, which is present on several markets, including sugar, starch and grain. The objective is to create a strong agri-food holding and enter new business segments. The idea behind the consolidation undertaken by MEP is that “on the one hand, consumers should receive competitive prices, and on the other hand, farmers and manufacturers should be well paid for their products”.

Currently, 48 companies that could be part of the holding are being analysed. The plan provides that the companies to be consolidated are to be selected in June. By the end of the year, more detailed research…

Bartłomiej Łatka, Sales Director at Euvic IT, writes in the second part of the article about what robotization has to offer to the retail segment in 2020.

Mobile robots

Bartłomiej Łatka, Sales Director at Euvic IT

Recently, mobile robots have been pushing people out of storage space in large warehouses. There is a shortage of warehousemen throughout Poland, and warehouses often located on the outskirts of cities or even in the fields, struggling to provide staff. Especially during the holiday or flu season. Relatively high salaries, regulated by the law for working at night or on public holidays, as well as the risk of loss of manning – all that makes automated internal transport systems seem to have the best years ahead.

Among mobile solutions in trade and logistics we can distinguish the following groups:

The Glovo mobile application, which specialises in on-demand deliveries, has just exceeded 1 million downloads in Poland (App Store and Google Play). Although a wide range of products can be ordered with Glovo, it is widely used to deliver food.

Glovo in Poland: 1 million application downloads

Glovo has been operating in Poland since July 2019, following the acquisition of PizzaPortal.pl. The idea behind the application is to be able to order “anything” and delivery takes place in less than an hour. Glovo has over 2,700 partner points in Poland, including McDonald’s and KFC restaurants and Biedronka and Carrefour shops. The application operates in 30 cities in Poland, but Glovo announces a systematic expansion of its offer and development of all order categories. In total, around the world, the application is used by approximately 2.6 million users per month. It is available in 22 countries and about 550 cities.

Tesco develops its activities in the e-commerce segment. In May, the company added five new cities for the “Zamow i odbierz” (click & collect) service in Poland.

14 click & collect points

New locations where the service is available are Czestochowa, Zielona Góra, Opole, Kielce and Jelenia Gora. Thanks to the extension of the network of collection points, it is now possible to serve 15% more customers under this solution. In total, currently the click & collect option is available in 14 Tesco stores across the country. Around 2,000 customers use such purchases every week. The chain announces that it will soon introduce further novelties extending the scope of services.

Purchases made in the “Zamow i odbierz” option can be picked up in the store or delivered home by a taxi company cooperating with Tesco. When completing an order via taxi, payment must be made online. In case…

As far as saturation with robots is concerned, the Polish market is unfortunately in the tail of the rankings, which is quite surprising if we take into account, for example, Polish GDP (where we have 22nd place in the world) or Human Development Index (Poland with 32nd place in the world).

Bartlomiej Latka, Sales Director at Euvic IT

In 2014, roboforum.pl wrote that “Poland, with the value of the index at 18, is at the bottom of the ranking. Higher density of robotization than Poland is characteristic not only for countries that are among the leaders in this respect, but also for countries with a similar level of development, such as Hungary or Slovakia. The average robotisation density in Europe is 4.4 times higher than in Poland (compared to the previous year, Poland reduced the distance to Europe by 1.1 points),…

Camaieu clothing chain, specialising in women’s clothing, is leaving the Polish market. The company’s website has already stopped accepting orders and the stationary stores are to be closed at the end of June.

Camaieu is looking for an investor

As far back as 2018. Camaieu operated about 40 stationary stores in Poland. However, the chain has recorded negative sales dynamics in recent years, and the number of stores has been gradually decreasing. Currently, it amounts to 25. In total, the chain operates about 1 ,000 stores in 18 countries, more than half of which are located in France.

The COVID-19 pandemic and the closure of shops in shopping malls have worsened the company’s situation, but it has already been struggling with financial problems. According to Business Insider, the company planned to implement a restructuring plan from the spring, which was to include the closure of 125 stores in…

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