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"Take a week off and many things can become clear. In Fox's case, it's now clear that both Alcatraz and The Finder are more likely to be canceled than renewed at the end of this season as their ratings keep falling. Note that while their most recent ratings have caused the reassessment, their averages above have yet to "catch up".After this was already written yesterday, Fox stole a bit of my thunder with a press release slating the season finales for both Alcatraz and The Finder. Likely the series finales for both as well.Is this good news for Terra Nova? Your guess is as good as mine. Remember all that TV media chatter about how Fox had to make a decision on the show in January? I called BS on that timing then, and figured Fox could hold off longer than the conventional wisdom accepted they could. It's almost March, and still no decision from Fox! Be certain that the instant a decision is communicated to the producers it will become public information. I still make Terra Nova a "toss up" for renewal or cancellation with no new data likely to reach me until the decision is known." Written By Bill Gorman February 28th, 2012

Well, Terra Nova and Alcatraz and the Finder are all shows new this season... if Terra Nova was on the bubble, it stands to reason that all the new shows being on the bubble would be on equal footing.

Fringe has been lower in ratings too... but this is season 5... so like NBC did with Chuck, I could see FOX bringing back Fringe for a 6th season to wrap up the story IF many of their other new shows crap out.

But Alcatraz and the Finder aren't shows that would give Terra Nova the boot. These are time-sharing shows that really aren't taking a slot away from each other...

I actually like Alcatraz so far (only the pilot and next episode watched so far)... Terra Nova grew on me but I wouldn't cry if it went away... and honestly I'm not looking forward to the Finder even though I have it on my DVR.

I used to be a loyal Fringe fan but this season the show has really gone downhill and lost my interest. I think I have 4 episodes I still haven't watched and I used to watch them on Friday night when I got home from work.

If it's a choice between The Finder, Alcatraz, Terra Nova and Fringe then I say keep Terra Nova.

Also, keep in mind with House ending this year there's more space on FOX's calendar so maybe one of these shows can stick around and fill that hole. My choice for that would be The Finder.

Well, Terra Nova and Alcatraz and the Finder are all shows new this season... if Terra Nova was on the bubble, it stands to reason that all the new shows being on the bubble would be on equal footing.

Except for they can probably make a couple of Finder episodes and an Alcatraz episode for less than the cost of a Tera Nova episode. Even shows that get lower ratings can still be profitable if they are cheap enough to make.

We like The Finder and have watched a couple episodes of Alcatraz. Yes, the Finder can push the limits sometimes, but Alcatraz is the same thing every week.

I hadn't thought about the cost-factor... Alcatraz is fairly F/X low-tech... as is the Finder... so yeah, I could see where the Terra Nova budget might be tough... though they could do some episodes without dinosaurs and stay in the camp and bank some F/X budget for a later episode.

For the moment Alcatraz has hooked me... and I will watch Terra Nova if it comes back. I'm on the fence with the Finder because I didn't really care much for its Bones pilot, and honestly haven't liked Bones as much this season either.

In a perfect world, Fringe would stick around... Alcatraz would also stick around to see where that mystery is going... Terra Nova would come back... and probably the Finder would barely make the cut because of shows like House ending and the need for a known-thing to stay.

Also, I thought I had read Bones might be on its last legs too... so there might be a couple of longer-running shows ending this season on FOX.

I love Fringe, but agree it has wandered this season. I'm still watching as I am hoping to see it wind to a resolution.

I liked The Finder last year with its one episode premiere off Bones. I tried to watch the Season Premiere this year and hated it. Deleted it after 15 minutes. Then I deleted the Series Link.

Terra Nova didn't hold either my husband or myself after the first episode.

I like Alcatraz, but only to find the answer to the mystery. It is pretty grisly, dark, grim, and has no light spots. But the over-riding mystery is still holding me.

Shannon

"But the freedom that they fought for, and the country grand they wrought for, is their monument today, and for aye." "This nation will remain the land of the free only so long as it is the home of the brave."

IMHO it is going to be harder to guess what Fox is going to do in the future. The game of "follow the money" that determined what might survive is changing.

With regard to Fox the big change is the $1 retrans fee which will be implemented in three steps over the next three years with most affiliates, many of which will be holding out for a big increase with cable and satellite companies over the next few years. This will allow Fox suits to think more like cable channel suits.

Also the do look at who's carrying the production cost risks and how is the international distribution. Fox has kept "Fringe" on the air well past its traditional broadcast channel expiration date partly because of the following (all the data below comes from IMDb):

"Fringe"Production cost financing spread between:

Bad Robot

Warner Bros. Television

FB2 Films

Fringe Element Films

Distribution income from:

Fox Network (2008-) (USA) (TV)

A Channel (2008-2010) (Canada) (TV)

Citytv (2010-) (Canada) (TV)

Canal+ España (2008-) (Spain) (TV)

Italia 1 (2010-) (Italy) (TV)

Kanal 2 (2009-) (Estonia) (TV)

Kanal 5 (2008-) (Sweden) (TV)

Mediaset (2010-) (Italy) (TV) (on Italia 1)

Net5 (2009-) (Netherlands) (TV)

Nine Network Australia (2008-) (Australia) (TV)

Pop TV (2010-) (Slovenia) (TV)

Prizma (2011-) (Hungary) (TV) (repeats)

ProSieben Television (2009-) (Germany) (TV)

RTL Klub Televízió (2009-) (Hungary) (TV)

Schweizer Fernsehen (FS) (2009-) (Switzerland) (TV)

Sky One (2008-) (UK) (TV)

Steel (2009-) (Italy) (TV) (Pay-TV) (limited)

Super! Drama TV (2010-) (Japan) (TV)

TV3 Television Network Ireland (2008-) (Ireland) (TV)

VT4 (2009-) (Belgium) (TV)

Warner Channel Latin America (2009-) (Brazil) (TV)

Warner Channel Latin America (2009-) (Mexico) (TV)

Warner Home Video (2009) (UK) (DVD) (Blu-ray) (season 1)

Warner Home Video (2010) (Netherlands) (DVD) (Blu-ray) (season 1)

Warner Home Video (2009) (USA) (DVD) (Blu-ray) (season 1)

If Season 1 DVD sales have been decent, there is always a chance Warner may want another season and keep the cost to Fox down. Whether Fox is willing to give them that considering how poor the ratings have been is very doubtful. But in Hungary RTL Klub Televízió has the first airing and Prizma is already airing syndicated repeats. So who knows?

It's pretty clear that "The Finder" hasn't got much going for it other than Fox get's some income off of a Fox company being a part of the production team. It doesn't have much of a chance.

"Terra Nova" has a strong group of investors and wide international distribution although many of the distribution outlets are News Corp subsidiaries like Fox. IMHO it will have another season.

"Alcatraz" is the show that is on the edge. The only risk to Fox is the revenue from the hour it assigns to it. The production companies could give Fox a break on the price given the revenue from international distribution. I guess it might become a Friday show. Who knows?

"In a hundred years there'll be a whole new set of people."
"Always poke the bears. They sleep too much for their own good."

Fox has some big issues - too many old/tired shows and a failure to launch enough new hits to fill the void. They've messed up shows that could have been bigger hits with an erratic schedule and every year the ratings for American Idol continue to slide.

I'm not a huge fan of any of their shows on the bubble, but I think they need to show more commitment to making something work, rather than just slapping more spaghetti against the wall.

.................... There are none so blind as those who can not see it in HD........... Directv customer since January 2000...........

I'm not a huge fan of any of their shows on the bubble, but I think they need to show more commitment to making something work, rather than just slapping more spaghetti against the wall.

You'd think they would look over at NBC and see the spaghetti against the wall method doesn't work!

Shannon

"But the freedom that they fought for, and the country grand they wrought for, is their monument today, and for aye." "This nation will remain the land of the free only so long as it is the home of the brave."

Well if they cancel Alcatraz and Terra Nova that just gives more reason to HATE fox! Still unhappy about Human Target. At least all my favorite shows right now are on Starz, Showtime, and AMC and not ending any time soon.

I'm hoping that Kiefer's new show bodes well for him. However I like for him to hurry up with that "24" movie. I like to see a spin off from "24" though (I just hope it's not going to be "Married With Cougar").