Five reasons why the presidential election is already over

The White House, seen from the South Lawn in Washington, gives the media a preview of the White House gardens and grounds on Saturday, April 21, 2012, prior to the official opening of the Garden Tours to the public. (AP Photo/Susan Walsh)

Five reasons why the presidential election is already over

Storified by Digital First Media · Thu, Nov 01 2012 06:35:07

There are still a few days left before the presidential election on Nov. 6. But that hasn’t stopped pundits and political operatives from saying it’s already over. Here’s a look at some of the arguments they’re making.

The statistical models show Obama ahead in swing states.

Denverpost

The argument: Forget the national polls. What matters is which candidate is ahead in the swing states. New York Times’ blogger Nate Silver’s survey of state polling shows Obama winning 299 Electoral College votes; Votamatic’s Drew Linzer projects 332; The New Republic’s Nate Cohn argues Obama’s ahead; as does the Princeton Election Consortium’s Sam Wang. Real Clear Politics’ map with no tossups shows Obama at 281.

But wait… None of those economic indicators are improving quickly enough. They only show a narrow Obama advantage which could fall apart because of lagging enthusiasm, campaign mistakes or low turnout.

Republicans always win on Nov. 6.

Whitehouse

The argument: “Since election day was standardized in 1845 there have been six presidential elections held on November 6th and Republicans have won all six.That means next Tuesday, the 7th Presidential election held on this date, willeither break or uphold a streak that began in 1860 with the election of AbrahamLincoln.”