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US Doomed to Back Down on Aggressive Policies against Iran

Former director of international affairs in marketing and oilfield operations at the Iranian Ministry of Petroleum says, from the onset, US policies on stopping Iranian oil exports was unrealistic, adding the country will eventually back down on its policies against Tehran. "The US, in spite of aggressive policies against Iran, will eventually have to retreat and moderate its positions,” Safar-Ali Keramati told Shana.

Pointing out that the lack of international consensus against Iran was the biggest difference between the 2012 and 2018 sanctions, he said: "The positive effects of the lack of international consensus on sanctions has been undermined by the nature of the oil market and concerns of major oil and gas companies for working with Iran, and major oil companies in the West have lowered the level of their relationship with the National Iranian Oil Company, but it is expected that with the implementation of the European banking and financial channel for the maintenance and development of trade relations with Iran, the relations of Western companies be restored.”

He said the most important reason for the US to grant waivers to oil buyers from Iran was their dependence on Iranian oil, adding that the countries that are exempt from the sanctions are actually divided into two categories: first, countries such as Japan and South Korea, although politically in line with the United States politically, depend on Middle East oil and gas, due to their lack of oil and gas resources. In recent months, these countries have been intensively negotiating with the US authorities for securing partial waivers and eventually succeeded.

The second group includes China, India and Turkey, which do not have a serious political unity with the United States, and to some extent have been protesting the bullying and unilateral US policies and have repeatedly stated that they might, to some extent, moderate the level of their oil purchases from Iran, but will never cut off their oil relations with Iran, he added.

Keramati said these conditions, coupled with the rise of oil prices in recent months, the International Energy Agency's last month report that there was a market imbalance and an increase in prices in the event of a complete elimination of Iran's oil, the strong Asian market dependence on the oil supplied in the Middle East region, including Iran's oil, have compelled the US to retreat from its initial positions and grant exemptions to certain countries. - Shana