Even at the end of the most careful and detailed valuation, there will be uncertainty about the final figure arrived as there are assumptions that one makes about the future of the company and the economy. It is unrealistic to expect absolute certainty in valuations. The degree of precision in valuation is likely to vary widely across investments. The valuation of a large and mature company with a long financial history will usually be much more precise than that of a young company in a sector in turbulence.

Quantitative models

not always better

There is a general belief that a valuation model that is more complex yields better valuations, but it is not necessarily so. When the models become more complex, the number of input variables needed to value the firm increases, thus bringing in the potential for input errors.

While engaging in more complex models, investors should keep in mind the following points: First, adhere to the principle of parsimony, which states that one should not use more inputs than absolutely needed to value an asset; and, second, that there is always a trade-off between the additional benefits of building in more detail and the estimation errors.

Markets are inefficient

The general assumption under an inefficient market is that it makes mistakes and investors can find these, often using information that other investors have access to. So, it seems reasonable to say that those who believe that markets are inefficient should spend their time and resources on valuation and those who believe that markets are efficient should buy the shares at the market price as the best estimate of value.

Those who believe that the market makes mistakes and buy or sell shares on that basis believe that, ultimately, markets will correct theses mistakes, meaning which they become efficient. Recognising that markets make mistakes and finding them requires a combination of skill and a bit of luck too.

To conclude, the role valuation plays in portfolio management is determined by the investment philosophy of the investor. Valuation plays a minimal role in portfolio management for a passive investor, whereas it plays a larger role for an active investor.

* The writer is an associate professor of accounting and finance in IIM Shillong

The process

* Basis for valuation: An investor should not pay more for an asset than its worth. So, the price paid