What Should Bettors Know About the Super Bowl 51 Total?

What Should Bettors Know About the Super Bowl 51 Total?

The Atlanta Falcons were the highest scoring offense during the regular season (33.8 points/game) and they haven’t slowed down during the postseason. In two playoff games, the Falcons have tallied 80 total points including Sunday’s 44-21 victory over the Packers in the NFC Championship. On the flip side, Atlanta’s defense ranked 27th in scoring defense (25.4 points/game) and 28th in passing defense (266.7 yards/game). This combination of offensive firepower and defensive ineptitude has allowed the Falcons to be the most profitable ‘over’ team (15-2) this season.

Their opponent, the New England Patriots, ranked third in scoring (27.6 points/game) while boasting a well-balanced attack that included a top-five passing offense (269.3 yards/game) and a top-ten rushing offense (117.0 yards/game). On the defensive side of the ball, the Patriots led the league in scoring defense (15.6 points/game) and were actually one of the most profitable ‘under’ teams (10-6) during the regular season. For what it’s worth, the over has hit in both of New England’s playoff games.

With two of the league’s top offenses squaring off, the Super Bowl 51 total opened at 57.5 at the market-setting Pinnacle sportsbook. Although this is lower than last week’s NFC Championship total, this marked the highest Super Bowl total in NFL history — just a point higher than Super Bowl 44 between the New Orleans Saints and Indianapolis Colts (opened 56.5).

The table below displays the closing total for every single Super Bowl matchup.

Super Bowl

Final Score

Total

Over/Under

XLIV

New Orleans 31, Indianapolis 17

57

UNDER

XLII

N.Y. Giants 17, New England 14

55

UNDER

XXIX

San Francisco 49, San Diego 26

53.5

OVER

XIX

San Francisco 38, Miami 16

53.5

OVER

XLVI

N.Y. Giants 21, New England 17

53

UNDER

XXXVI

New England 20, St. Louis 17

53

UNDER

XXXIII

Denver 34, Atlanta 19

52.5

OVER

XXX

Dallas 27, Pittsburgh 17

51

UNDER

XXVIII

Dallas 30, Buffalo 13

50.5

UNDER

XXVI

Washington 37, Buffalo 24

49

OVER

XXXI

Green Bay 35, New England 21

49

OVER

XXXII

Denver 31, Green Bay 24

49

OVER

XXIV

San Francisco 55, Denver 10

48

OVER

XVIII

L.A. 38, Washington 9

48

UNDER

XVI

San Francisco 26, Cincinnati 21

48

UNDER

XLVII

Baltimore 34, San Francisco 31

48

OVER

XXIII

San Francisco 20, Cincinnati 16

48

UNDER

XLVIII

Seattle 43, Denver 8

47.5

OVER

XLIX

New England 28, Seattle 24

47.5

OVER

XXII

Washington 42, Denver 10

47

OVER

XLI

Indianapolis 29, Chicago 17

47

UNDER

XL

Pittsburgh 21, Seattle 10

47

UNDER

XXIX

New England 24, Philadelphia 21

46.5

UNDER

XLIII

Pittsburgh 27, Arizona 23

46

OVER

XXXIV

St. Louis 23, Tennessee 16

45

UNDER

XLV

Green Bay 31, Pittsburgh 25

45

OVER

XXVII

Dallas 52, Buffalo 17

44.5

OVER

XXXVII

Tampa Bay 48, Oakland 21

44

OVER

II

Green Bay 33, Oakland 14

43

OVER

L

Denver 24, Carolina 10

43

UNDER

XXV

N.Y. Giants 20, Buffalo 19

40.5

UNDER

XXI

N.Y. Giants 39, Denver 20

40

OVER

III

N.Y. Jets 16, Baltimore 7

40

UNDER

XII

Dallas 27, Denver 10

39

UNDER

IV

Kansas City 23, Minnesota 7

39

UNDER

XI

Oakland 34, Minnesota 14

38

OVER

XXXVIII

New England 32, Carolina 29

37.5

OVER

XX

Chicago 46, New England 10

37.5

OVER

XV

Oakland 27, Philadelphia 10

37.5

UNDER

XIII

Pittsburgh 35, Dallas 31

37

OVER

XVII

Washington 27, Miami 17

36.5

OVER

V

Baltimore 16, Dallas 13

36

UNDER

XIV

Pittsburgh 31, L.A. Rams 19

36

OVER

X

Pittsburgh 21, Dallas 17

36

OVER

VI

Dallas 24, Miami 3

34

UNDER

VII

Miami 14, Washington 7

33

UNDER

IX

Pittsburgh 16, Minnesota 6

33

UNDER

VIII

Miami 24, Minnesota 7

33

UNDER

XXXV

Baltimore 34, N.Y. Giants 7

33

OVER

I

Green Bay 35, Kansas City 10

N/A

N/A

Although there wasn’t a total posted for Super Bowl 1, you can see that Super Bowl overs have gone 25-24 overall and the closing totals have been steadily increasing. Bettors love high-scoring games and naturally gravitate towards the over — especially in a matchup of two elite offenses. In our historical database, which goes back to 2003, the over has never received less than 46% of tickets in the Super Bowl.

Not surprisingly, bettors have been hammering the over for Super Bowl 51. According to our public betting trends, 66% of tickets and 79% of total dollars wagered have taken the over. This one-sided public betting has caused the total to increase from 57.5 to 58.5 at Pinnacle.

[click image below to enlarge]

It’s interesting to note that Pinnacle was the last offshore sportsbook to move their Super Bowl 51 total to 58.5. It’s also worth noting that Sunday’s total actually reached 60 at Jerry’s Nugget for 90 minutes on Thursday, although it has dropped to 59 since that time.

“Given the efficiency of these offenses, we did not hesitate making this the highest total in Super Bowl history,” stated Scott Cooley, a spokesman for Bookmaker. “The public bettors won’t think twice about betting the over, but we do expect to see some smart money on the under.”

This isn’t only the highest total in Super Bowl history, but also one of the highest totals that we have tracked, including both regular season and playoff games. Dating back to 2003, there have been six regular-season games and two playoff games with a total of greater than 57. At least 60% of spread tickets have taken the over in each of these games, and public bettors have been rewarded with the over going 8-0 despite these lofty totals.

Last week’s Packers/Falcons game featured the highest total of the season, and the highest total since December 25, 2004, when the Chiefs/Raiders total closed at 60. In fact, this season’s three highest totals have all included the Falcons and all three have gone over.

There are only eight NFL teams that play in domed stadiums, but it’s interesting to note that five of these high total games have taken place indoors. Using our historical database, I found the average total at domed stadiums has been roughly three points higher than it has been in outdoor stadiums. That’s a significant development given that the Super Bowl will be played at NRG Stadium, which features a retractable roof. Although there hasn’t been an official announcement yet, it seems safe to assume that the roof will be closed.

Since 2003, NFL regular season overs have gone 411-379 (52%) when the game is played in a dome and 1,360-1,370 (49.8%) when the game is played outdoors. During the postseason, that edge is even more apparent with indoor overs going 24-8 (75%) and outdoor overs going just 50-66 (43.1%). That said, it’s important to realize that oddsmakers account for this edge when setting their total. “In most cases, we’re going to tick the total up a notch when teams are playing indoors,” stated Cooley.

Assuming public money continues to hammer the over, it will be interesting to see whether sportsbooks increase the total. The Super Bowl is the most heavily bet sporting event every year, and this causes public money to have a greater impact on the line movement. We still haven’t seen sharp money pick a side on the total, so it will be interesting to monitor this total throughout the week — especially when the limits are increased closer to kick off.

Bettors may be interested to know that there have only been nine Super Bowl games with more than 58-points scored, led by Super Bowl 29 when the San Francisco 49ers and San Diego Chargers combined to score 75. For what it’s worth, there has only been one Super Bowl matchup featuring the Patriots in which the teams combined to score more than 58-points (New England 32, Carolina 29 in Super Bowl 37).