Thursday, January 24, 2013

There is a saying "great minds think a like" and that is true, but in this case it's more a matter of all meteorology minds think a like.

Always looking for that analog year... storm or experience...

The NWS out of Raleigh, NC put out a carefully worded "forecast discussion" this morning that says basically what I blogged yesterday...down to mentioning IN THEIR FORECAST DISCUSSION the use of the 2005 Raleigh Ice Storm as a reminder that sometimes a minimal amount of precipitation can have high impacts across an area.

Note they put this out today, not yesterday when I waxed poetic on the 2005 Raleigh Ice Storm.

...A LIGHT WINTRY MIX STILL POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY EVENING...
THE TREND OF THE MODELS CONTINUES TO BE TOWARD A FLATTER MID/UPPER
WAVE SOLUTION AND VERY LIGHT QPF... FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY EVENING AS
THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE TENNESSEE AND LOWER OHIO VALLEY REGION
ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS TO THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. VERY COLD ARCTIC
AIR WILL BE IN PLACE. HOWEVER... MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING FOR A
SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM. YET... WITH SUCH COLD AIR IN PLACE FRIDAY
BEFORE THE LIGHT PRECIPITATION EVENT UNFOLDS... THIS COULD TURN OUT
TO BE A MINIMAL PRECIPITATION / BUT HIGH IMPACT EVENT (I.E. THE
19JAN2005 LIGHT SNOW / HIGH IMPACT EVENT)... WHEN RDU MEASURED 1
INCH OF SNOW WITH 0.04 LIQUID EQUIVALENT / WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID 20S DURING THE AFTERNOON.

The threat of ICE and/or Black Ice is too strong for them to ignore and they most likely will post a Winter Weather Watch to be on the safe side. Either way... pay attention NOW and don't wait to plan your day until Friday morning if you live in the area I call RDU Land.. or RGH if you take the train.

"Assuming" models do not change and show a drier air mass... they continue:

"ALTHOUGH THE MODEL 1000/850 AND 850/700 THICKNESS FORECASTS CONTINUE
TO SHOW DECENT SPREAD... THE FAVORED 00Z/EC CONTINUES TO INDICATE
THE PREDOMINATE P-TYPE TO BE LIGHT SNOW NW (1280/1535M THICKNESSES)
...LIGHT SNOW WITH SLEET IN THE I-64 CORRIDOR (PARTIALS IN THE 1280S
AND 1540S - ENDING WITH 1300 AND 1550 OR SO). SURFACE WET BULB
FORECASTS KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S ALL DAY FROM RALEIGH WEST AND
NORTH THROUGH THE PIEDMONT INTO THE BLUE RIDGE. THIS WILL BE THE
AREA WHERE MEASURABLE SNOW AND SLEET IS FAVORED... WITH A
CHANGE-OVER TO LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR FREEZING DRIZZLE BY SUNSET OR
SO (AS WE LOSE SATURATION IN THE ICE NUCLEATION ZONE ALOFT).
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF AROUND AN INCH APPEAR POSSIBLE. THIS IS
WHERE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY EVENING IN LATER FORECASTS (ASSUMING THE MODELS DO NOT
COMPLETELY DRY UP)"

Way too many parallels....for even the NWS not to mention it and as I said YESTERDAY.. that storm and the lack of preparation for it has become the monkey on the back of every meteorologist forecasting for this Raleigh-Durham area.

And, that is why you should read my blog.... because I blogged on this yesterday morning!

Bottom line being I often talk on the trends a day or two out before other official sources will bring them up. Forewarned is forearmed as they say.

I also point out why it "might not work out that way" just as much as their is a possibility it could happen that way..

And, we still don't know today, less than two days away, if we will get snow, ice, freezing rain or very little precipitation but the possibilities are there and that is what weather forecasting is all about.

12 Hours From Now... note the snow possibilities near the coast of OBX :) ...to the north of it.
Now that would be a wild place to watch a snow storm from for a weather lover :)

They are currently "brining" the roads and notifying parents of early school closings on Friday. I had a rather unusual childhood and my mother, an artist, kept us home often when the weather looked bad. Although my teachers hated this, from the perspective of being a mother I'd like to say this about that... Keep them home ...if you can. If you don't work full time and or are home or someone can stay home with them...why complicate life by sending to school...worrying on them and racing back across town around the time the snow/ice/sleet might fall to try and get them home safely just so the Wake County Schools don't have to worry on making up a cancellation day. Trust me, as a one time substitute teacher, there are going to be a lot of teachers calling in sick tomorrow. IF you can keep them home ...do it... make it a 3 Day Winter Holiday and be done with it! If you want them out of the house for a few hours and the school is a few blocks away, let the school or which ever teachers show up babysit them for a bit... because no one is going to be doing a lot of learning tomorrow even if they hold classes. Trust me. Been a teacher, been a substitute teacher and been a mother racing around trying to pick up children in a Category 1 Hurricane that looked like it would be a distant offshore tropical storm... Do what works for you and for your kids. Dismissal at 11:30 AM... yeah right (rolling eyes)!

Meanwhile it is sunny but very, very windy this morning. I can feel the cold air the moment you get near the window. Okay, maybe the heat is on too high but I don't like layers...

I will update this blog with more thoughts on this coming "Winter Weather Event" later in the day or this evening. Have to tell you I think it's kind of silly calling a possible storm an "event" because the kid in me still thinks a "winter weather event" is going to see the Ice Capades... not a possible storm with the possibility of power outages.