News & Analysis

What scouts missed for players who just had their fifth-year options declined

By Michael Renner
May 12, 2020

The deadline for franchises to extend their fifth-year options to 2017 first-rounders came and went last week, and an incredible half of the top-10 picks were told, “Thanks, but no thanks.” It goes to show what we all know already: Draft evaluation is far from an exact science. There were red flags in all the 14 first-rounders who had their options declined that eventually reared their ugly heads. These are the warning signs that were overlooked three years ago.

Easily the biggest red flag for the second-overall pick was that he couldn't take the starting job at North Carolina a year and a half earlier from an an eventual UDFA quarterback in Marquise Williams. That 2015 North Carolina team went 11-3 under Williams’ guidance before slipping back to 8-5 with Trubisky in 2016. The quarterback position still suffers from small sample sizes — only seeing one season from Trubisky with an 86.4 passing grade was quite obviously not enough to be certain about what was to come.

We designate Thomas as an edge defender here because that’s what the 49ers wanted when they took him third overall, but at Stanford he was a 273-pound 3-4 defensive end. Thomas played a grand total of 67 snaps outside the tackles his final season with the Cardinal and earned a 60.0 overall grade on those snaps. PFF's scouting profile on him warned that he “may not have a true position.” Thomas was a dominant force with his first step against the run on the interior, but he was a complete unknown going up against tackles. That 60.0 grade has been about what the 49ers have gotten as an edge defender the past three seasons.

Fournette thrived at LSU with his absurd combination of size and speed. The 240-pounder was a load for teenagers to bring down, and his highlight reel is up there with the all-timers. The problem was that he only had one way of breaking tackles: charging full-on with a head of steam. Because of that, he attacked the line of scrimmage with a recklessness that he could get away with due to the space afforded in college. That hasn’t been the case in Jacksonville — if the initial point of attack is clogged up, Fournette doesn’t usually have a plan B. His stop/start and make-you-miss ability simply isn’t there.