Welcome to another STC where friend of the podcast, Josh Inglis, challenges us with a case from Australia. Play along with us and try to get the diagnosis as early as possible.

As an aside, our update regarding COVID19 in NZ is already a bit out date. Time move quickly during a pandemic! NZ has not only managed to "flatten the curve"; we have completely squashed it. For each of the last 4 days we have had less than 15 new confirmed and probable cases. Now we have to figure out how to stay COVID-free until the vaccine...

First, welcome to Madison and Steven who have joined the IMreasoning team!

Like everyone else, we're talking about the Coronavirus. Its hard not to when it has taken over essentially every aspect of our daily lives, both at work and at home.

We talk about what makes the situation difficult for human minds to grasp the reality of this pandemic; the concept of exponential growth, denial in hard times, and the counterfactual.

And we have the rare treat of chatting with our good friend Jorge Valbuena-Balbas who is living and working in Bilbao, Spain, and is currently sitting (metophorically-speaking) at the bottom of what appears to be an exponential trajectory in Spain.

In this episode we review Bayesian Reasoning in general, and Nic get's the opportunity to geek out on talking stats. We cover likelihood ratios, positive and negative predictive values, sensitivity and specificity, and pre- and post-test probabilities. Hopefully, we used examples that will help you understand and remember these concepts.

Well folks, we are finally ready to re-launch with "season 2". During our break we have been making plans to continue bringing you new material. But most importantly we've decided to launch a new podcast called "Diagnostica" which aims to bridge the gap between the culture of medicine and the "public". We'll keep you updated on this new project.

For now, enjoy a short cognitive autopsy. Next episode, more Bayesian math!