Daily Market Analysis (SHORT TERM) Friday 01/11/2013

Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 01/08/13 @ 111.79. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 12/12/12 @ 108.02. Upside Targets = 110.67 – 111.37

New 3 month highs made on current move Thursday @ 113.29.

February Brent Crude broke out in early trading to multi-month highs on the heels of the ECB’s decision to leave rates unchanged but fell hard into the close on Chinese inflation fears.

Thursday’s price action is technically very bearish and with a close below the low on Friday could signal an end to the recent ST rally that has pushed the market $8 high and drop the market to $109 by next week.

Projected Daily Range: 1.39

Projected Weekly Range: 3.33

Projected Monthly Range: 7.54

WTI Crude Oil (February ‘13):

Short Term Trends are bullish.

Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 01/08/13 @ 93.36. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 12/18/12 @ 88.40. Upside Targets = 96.36 – 97.57.

New highs made on current move Thursday @ 94.70.

February WTI Crude Oil was able to hang onto its early gains better than its counterpart going into the close as it still settled near the day’s mid-range while breaking through the Q4 ’12 spot contract highs.

WTI will need to trade above $94.89 on Friday or else it will generate a WIMP week that could possibly put an end to the 10-week rally off the early November lows.

Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 12/26/12 @ 3.362. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 01/02/13 @ 3.315. Downside Targets = 3.102 – 3.055.

Inside compression day generated on Thursday.

February Natural Gas regained some of its lost momentum on Thursday after the largest storage withdrawal in nearly two years helped settle the market back near $3.20.

Natural gas has been severely battered during this week because of original warm weather forecasts that have since been tempered and should see the market pick up some steam to move back near $3.25 on Friday.

About the Author

KMH is a trading and technical analysis firm that specializes in commodity futures and commodity based ETF’s. Kris Hicks has worked for numerous years in the commodity business and in 2011 accurately forecasted both $25 moves to the downside in May and July and the $25+ move to the upside in October in oil. He also called the all-time high day for gold on Sept. 6, 2011 and forecasted a projected downside target of 1528.10 in March 2012. He was also responsible for projecting the Q2 and Q4 low in the Euro FX to within 13 and 9 ticks, respectively. His trading methodology has a high degree of accuracy which confirms tops/bottoms, projected trading ranges and projected targets for those ranges. His expertise is focused on 16 commodities plus the comparable ETF markets. You can reach Kris at Kris@KMH-Capital.com or visit his website at www.KMH-Capital.com.