Alternative Energy 2018

Submitted by Captain Black on Tue, 2017-12-26 20:53

"British shale gas companies have said domestic fracking will finally begin in earnest in 2018, after another year passed without serious progress amid strong opposition. Industry figures said next year would be crucial for the sector, as companies start the process of hydraulic fracturing to extract gas trapped underground in shale rock..."

"Since 2012, Erie County landowners have signed 354 oil/gas leases to 12 different gas developers as of Feb. 2016. They are just waiting for the price of natural gas to recover and fracking companies to move in."

"The radical proposal envisages an island being built to act as a hub for vast offshore windfarms that would eclipse today’s facilities in scale. Dogger Bank, 125km (78 miles) off the East Yorkshire coast, has been identified as a potentially windy and shallow site."

Thats about the only tuth in that piece of art.

Ah, So ... ;-0

"Drunk tanks provide a safe place for those who have over-indulged to be checked over and sleep it off."

"some observers have raised concerns that if drunk tanks become routine in town centres, they could enable more people to get paralytically drunk."

"There are 2 million people in the 'wibbly wobbly' world who require kidney dialysis every week to clean their blood. This is a time-consuming and cumbersome process, without which the patient dies."

"We’re running out of space and resources to produce enough food to feed the world’s growing population. Vertical farming allows for food production to take place using a tiny fraction of the water and land of conventional agriculture and without the use of pesticides or fertilisers."

Eh.

"Appalled at the prospect, she scribbled in her customary, blue felt pen on the note: “I am not [double underlined] taking a panda with me. Pandas and politicians are not happy omens! Lord Z knows more about pandas than I do. I am sure he can arrange these things”."

"The first-ever shipment of Russian gas to the UK looks likely to head straight back out on another ship, disproving Moscow’s claims that Britain will be reliant on it for supplies this winter. National Grid confirmed that gas from a Russian field targeted by US sanctions had been delivered by a Russian icebreaker to storage facilities at the Isle of Grain in Kent on Thursday night...

"A spokesperson for National Grid said the gas had not entered the national network of pipelines that supplies homes and businesses...

"The icebreaker set off earlier this month from the Yaml LNG project in the Russian Arctic, a gas field that is jointly owned by the Russian gas producer Novatek, the state-owned China National Petroleum Corporation and the French oil firm Total....

"Ineos, owner of the Forties pipeline system, said this week the crack had been repaired and normal operation would resume “around the new year”.

UK gas prices have since fallen back down to normal levels, and Cox said the real story was not Russian gas but imports from Belgium."

"In the 1980s, the idea of a man-made man became less horror and more science fiction. Now its cyborgs, robots, Prometheus. I would be interested to see if they could de-technologise the story and come up with a new, modern retelling.

"That’s why it is time to renew the vision for the 21st century NHS. We should be optimistic and ambitious about what a national service can achieve. There is no reason why the people of this country should expect anything but the best health service in the world... to stand still is to fall back. That’s why we need to revive reform. The deadlock needs to be broken ... This will tackle the tough questions that politics is struggling to address... After all, I’m a doctor not a politician, and the patient is an NHS that’s in need of help..."

"The Arctic is a region of tremendous strategic importance for global trade and national security... Receding ice adds to the region’s significance.

To date, Arctic governance has been driven through the Arctic Council, created in 1996 by Canada, Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway, Russia, Sweden and the U.S. The council has grown to include 13 non-Arctic observer countries, including China, India and Japan. While the council has worked well on matters within its jurisdiction—such as health and the environment—it has no power to enforce agreements, making it incapable of dealing with security matters."

"Reindeer are thought to be the only mammals that can see ultraviolet light...Some populations of the North American caribou migrate the furthest of any terrestrial mammal, travelling up to 5,000 km (3,100 mi) a year, and covering 1,000,000 km2 (390,000 sq mi). Other populations (e.g., in Europe) have a shorter migration, and some, for example the subspecies R. t. pearsoni and R. t. platyrhynchus (both restricted to islands), are residents that only make local movements."

"Why could a woman not publish under her own name? What was life like for women living in the UK in the 19th Century? What circumstances would also give rise to a child being found abandoned in a city in the 18th Century, as Heathcliff was?"

"“The group has had two meetings in the Town Hall to date, neither of which was attended by all 6 members. This has made it difficult to apportion the necessary leg work effectively. It would be easier to fit in with individual requirements if members were there to express them. Our research has been limited to the Rough Sleeper Sweep and a visit by myself to the Salvation Army.

The Rough Sleeper Sweep was invaluable as we saw the partner agencies currently working with SBC in action, and managed to speak to some of those who attended the breakfast at the Rainbow Centre. This has helped us decide who we thought we needed to talk to. Actually meeting with the other agencies has been very difficult due to work commitments and diary clashes.

The second meeting of the group with Andrew Rowe allowed a discussion of what questions we thought needed answering and a very helpful aide memoire was produced by Andrew. It is hoped a standardised approach will ensure consistent and comparable evidence is available for the final analysis of Rough Sleeping in the SBC area. I think it is important that the group maintains a focused approach and does not allow itself to be distracted by hearsay and anecdotal tales.

Further visits will be arranged in the New Year to the necessary agencies and updates provided as and when they are available.”

Rough sleeping means that you do not have anywhere to sleep in. People bedding down in doorways, cars, derelict buildings, sheds, tents (excluding campsites) or any other place that is not designed and is unsuitable for people to sleep in are classed as sleeping rough."

"Johnson has previously promoted the idea of another Channel Tunnel but is now said to think a bridge could also be possible, telling aides that such feats of engineering have been achieved in Japan..."

"Campaigners have attributed the gulf between estimates and records to a reluctance to self-identify, for fear of discrimination – but the effect has been to make the community invisible...

“Local authorities are quite complacent when it comes to prejudice against Gypsies and Travellers,” says Bennett, describing her experience in setting up a site in Nottinghamshire. “When we applied for our planning permission on our land we had people writing in saying, ‘How are we going to stop these people from breeding?’ And that was allowed to go up on the council’s website.”

"With 84 per cent of us heating our homes with gas, gas producing nearly half of our electricity and UK industries using it as a vital feedstock, the question is not whether we need gas, but where we source it from. 2017 served to cement this; in December alone we saw three events cause a European gas shortage and subsequent price hike, as Middle Eastern and Russian suppliers scrambled their costly Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) tankers to meet demand.

But the struggle for already-overstretched UK billpayers, who inevitably end up shouldering the cost, is not the only concern. Shipping our much-needed gas across oceans and continents as LNG requires energy in itself. The gas produced in Qatar must be super-cooled, then loaded, brought thousands of miles to the UK then unloaded and regassified, using an extraordinary amount of energy.

In turn, importing this gas rather than producing it here in the UK means 10 per cent higher lifecycle emissions for that supply, which given we now import around half our gas, has big implications for our environment, particularly as we take gas from nations with lower standards than our own..."

“There’s a build-up of issues that has gone on for too long and the alarms was the straw that broke the camel’s back.”...

The plant, which sits alongside the river Hull, was granted a permit last year from the Environment Agency to take a maximum of 315,000 tonnes of waste a year, including black-bin “residual” household waste, commercial and industrial waste and waste wood.

A technology called fluidised bed gasification will convert the waste into a gas that turns a turbine to create electricity."

"In a staunch defence of the Northern Powerhouse set up by former Chancellor George Osborne before it was sidelined, Ms Greening said: “I think we need to make sure we never again take our foot off the pedal on ensuring that regions like Yorkshire, and the North more generally, get the investment they need to really play a full role, especially economically, in driving jobs and prosperity in this country.

“There’s talent growing up in every single community around the country. That’s not the problem. The issue is increasingly going to be making sure young people have opportunities on their doorstep.”

""the time is right" for a review, nearly 70 years on from the creation of the first national areas.

It will consider whether to expand England's network of parks as well as areas of outstanding natural beauty...

According to Mr Gove, the UK's population growth, combined with changes in technology and a decline in some habitats, meant it was time to "look afresh at these landscapes".

"Former government aide and journalist Julian Glover has been appointed to carry it out.

Mr Gove said: "The creation of national parks almost 70 years ago changed the way we view our precious landscapes - helping us all access and enjoy our natural world.

"We want to make sure they are not only conserved, but enhanced for the next generation.

"Are we properly supporting all those who live in, work in, or want to visit these magnificent places? Should we indeed be extended our areas of designated land?"

He added: "I want Julian explicitly to consider, how we can extend and improve the protection we give to other precious landscapes"...

"Mr Glover, who Mr Gove called a "passionate advocate for the countryside", said: "Our protected landscapes are England's finest gems and we owe a huge debt to past generations who had the wisdom to preserve them.

"The system they created has been a strength, but it faces challenges too.

"It is an honour to be asked to find ways to secure them for the future. I can't wait to get started and learn from everyone who shares an interest in making England's landscapes beautiful, diverse and successful."

Margaret Paren, chairwoman of National Parks England said the announcement was "very much welcome" and the organisation intends to "to play a full part".

"The UK foreign secretary Boris Johnson has joined the US in condemning “divisive” German plans to press ahead with the construction of the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline from Russia to Germany, arguing it could leave European energy consumers heavily dependent on “a malign Russian state”.

"There is nothing ‘authentic’ about claiming they represent our community, neither did they show any ‘humanity’ when they wilfully endangered the work force, police and residents on the night they broke through the compound security fence, climbed the work over rig and lit flares on a live gas well site.

These vagrant protesters are ‘faceless’ to our community as we don’t even recognise them let alone know their names...

"A small number of politicians have openly supported the disruptive actions of the activists and have failed to condemn actions that have been a cause for concern, including disruption of local democratic meetings, targeting and bullying of individuals and local businesses.

Some businesses have had sustained campaigns against them leading to job losses in our community. With elections due next year for Ryedale District councillors, we are now asking which councillors will be supporting the return of the protest camps and the anti-social behaviour of the vagrant protesters?"

"WHAT do Brexit, gas, Yorkshire, and Lancashire have in common? Fracking. Having come across Friends of the Earth Europe’s website, I was informed that the ‘frack-war’ was alive and well. Companies are pushing for permits and people are concerned about the health, safety, and environmental aspects of shale gas extraction.

While understandable under different circumstances, I would have expected the Brexit-voting regions to have assumed a more favourable attitude towards fracking. There are a number of reasons for the aforementioned assumption, as well as the assumption that the UK needs fracking.

First, there is a strong climate case for fracking. Second, with Brexit looming, energy security is becoming a big concern. Lastly, fracking has become a lot safer since the last tremor. As a matter of fact, it has become revolutionary

Among the primary concerns of activists and local citizens are environmental concerns. These are two-fold, starting with methane emissions (gas-specific) and secondly with CO2 emissions once the fracked gas is burned. Then there are tremors, but we’ll get to those later.

So what then is the first reason why the UK needs fracking? Paradoxically, it is for its environmental benefits. Since the 1990s, the UK has been hailed as the leader in the coal-to-gas shift. Though unintended at first, the environmental benefits are indisputable.

The UK was the first EU member state to have a coal-free day when all of its electricity came from either nuclear, gas, or renewable sources. However, coal still competes with gas as a base-load capacity mechanism.

In simple terms, this refers to backup energy sources that are used for generating electricity when the sun doesn’t shine and the wind doesn’t blow. Therefore, the UK needs fracking to ensure a consistent supply of gas to its capacity mechanisms to avoid excessive pollution by coal capacity mechanisms (it’s slightly more complicated, but these are the nuts and bolts).

Of course concerns about the impact of methane emissions from the production and transportation of natural gas remain. These, however, become increasingly weak as research progresses. According to Equinor (formerly Statoil), only when peak methane emissions of gas are accounted for are its environmental advantages offset.

Due to the short distance the fracked gas would have to travel from the well to the plant, this is highly unlikely.

While there is no doubt that the environment should be a strong motive for why people should (or should not) support fracking, the other argument is on energy security. It is perhaps the prime argument for fracking. And it is amplified by the one issue, aside from the recent World Cup, that everyone has an opinion on – Brexit.

The UK needs to frack, because otherwise it will face a gas shortage to say the least. And don’t forget the price hike if the UK doesn’t frack.

As it stands, there are currently three EU-UK gas interconnectors and four EU-UK electricity interconnectors ensuring that, if the UK cannot produce a sufficient amount of energy, it can buy energy from EU countries as per the EU’s internal energy market (IEM).

Because energy arrangements have only been mentioned in passing during the Brexit negotiations, it’s uncertain whether the UK will stay as a member of the IEM. If Theresa May’s European Court of Justice red line stays, it won’t. Subsequently, coupled with the closing of Centrica’s Rough Patch gas storage facility, leaving the IEM will impact the UK’s energy security negatively.

The UK could then potentially move on to import American shale (fracked) gas, or continue buying from Europe with added tariffs. Because Asian markets pay a (large) premium on Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) imports and no special energy deal has been forged with the EU, this could easily amount to steep energy price hikes.

Therefore, the UK must frack. It is environmentally viable and necessary for energy security. Natural gas emits only half the CO2 of coal and our shale reserves are sufficiently large to meet the UK’s gas demand for decades to come.

Public anxiety over fracking is by no means ‘scaremongering’, as a certain CEO has called it. It is very much warranted, as the only experience the UK has had was a negative one. It entailed an earthquake measuring 2.3 on the Richter scale. However, research has moved on, and fracking should be given a chance.

Given Brexit, fracking must be seriously considered if UK wishes to retain its energy security – how else will people comment on the success/failure of Brexit and share videos of our World Cup heroes if no one will be able to charge their phone due to an energy shortage?

Samuel Ribansky is politics graduate from the University of Sheffield. He specialises in European affairs."

"ForePower Ltd has applied for planning permission to build a “Small Scale Electricity Generation Plant for the Short Term Operating Reserve (STOR)” at land at Queen Margaret’s Industrial Estate.

It also wants to build a Battery Energy Storage System(BESS) on another part of the site.

It was granted permission last year for both but has now revised the layout of the scheme, in particular, the access.

The planning application states: “The sites would produce low carbon electricity that would help support the local grid in the area and would support keeping the lights on and industry operational at all times in the local area with the location chosen due to its proximity to the local electricity distribution network and access, if required to the gas distribution system.

“The development could generate up to two new jobs for field service engineers, as well as employment for the construction contractors and their employees.

The increase of generators in the area would also create employment opportunities for asset managers and operational managers which is the creation of high skilled employment opportunities.”

The National Grid calls on STOR facilities in periods of high demand.

However, there are currently fewer than 1 STOR calls a day, meaning the facility is likely to be lightly used.

The applicant adds that when operating the site will not generate “any noise of emissions.”

"...Today, four cables – known as interconnectors – between the UK and Ireland, France and the Netherlands have a capacity of 4GW, providing around 6% of Britain’s power supplies. However, with 11 new connections linking the UK and other European countries either under construction or mooted by developers, imports could provide more than a fifth of the country’s electricity needs by 2025..."

"National Grid’s dual role as builder of interconnectors and manager of balancing electricity supplies has also raised questions about its vested interests. “I wouldn’t say there is conflict of interest, but there is potential,...”

"Since 2007, the oil and gas industry has lost $280 billion betting on the shale boom, which has been made possible by hydraulic fracturing (fracking) and Wall Street financing, and these companies are still borrowing heavily. But even as the industry struggles to recoup costs — much less profits — by continuing to borrow and drill, the great promise of the shale revolution is also threatened by another specter: declining production at each well."

“That the minister can cheerlead this unpopular industry without meeting the people living next door – the people who have to put up with trucks, noise, and the industrialisation of their local countryside - is astounding.”

"CCS would be able to “capture” up to 90% of the CO2 churned out by Teesside’s heavy industry - but it’s new and expensive.

Experts have already warned the “clock is ticking” for Teesside as places like Rotterdam, Norway and The Netherlands nudge ahead in the race to attract big global industrial names that are looking for a solution to meet their carbon emission obligations."

"Energy sector carbon emissions will rise in 2018 after hitting record levels the year before, dimming prospects for meeting Paris climate treaty goals, the head of the International Energy Agency (IEA) said Wednesday. The energy sector accounts for 80 percent of global CO2 emissions, with most of the rest caused by deforestation and agriculture, so its performance is key to efforts to rein in rising world temperatures. "I'm sorry, I have very bad news for you," IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol told guests at a diplomatic function hosted by the Polish embassy in Paris. "Emissions this year will increase once again, and we're going to have the COP meeting when global emissions reach a record high," he said, referring to the December UN climate summit in Katowice, Poland."

"A trailblazing energy project has started drilling the UK’s deepest ever borehole in Cornwall in a bid to use heat from hot rocks as a zero-carbon source of electricity.

The team behind the £18m scheme hopes to create the UK’s first deep geothermal power station and ignite a renewed interest in the technology’s wider potential.

The project near Redruth involves two deep holes being drilled over a course of around six months. Drilling began on Tuesday, with one hole expected to be 1.6 miles (2.5km) deep and the other as far as 2.8 miles (4.5km) down, which would be a UK record for a borehole.

Water will then be pumped into the shallower well, where it should be heated by naturally fractured hot rocks deep underground, hitting temperatures of up to 195C...

"From the 1960s, cheap air travel meant English people could venture overseas in unprecedented numbers, and Blackpool lost three-quarters of its cinemas and theatres, one of its train stations, and became a day tripper and weekend resort rather than the place where thousands took their only fortnight holiday."

"It’s hard to understand how a supposedly modern warship that cost NOK 5 billion to build could collide with a small civilian tanker in clear weather and calm seas, and be so badly damaged that it capsizes in a peaceful island bay. Military personnel remained mostly mum after that’s what happened to their frigate Helge Ingstad, and multiple investigations are underway...

"There was no immdiate word on the condition of the oil tanker Sola.

Børresen called the collision “a tragic accident,” as stabilization and salvage efforts went on. Not only the Norwegian Navy was facing big losses because of the collision. It also forced closure of the Sture oil terminal along with the Ivar Aasen and Edvard Grieg oil fields, and may also disrupt gas shipments to Europe.""

"The timing of Toshiba’s announcement is awkward for Greg Clark, the British business secretary, who is currently in Japan on a business trip designed to reassure executives about the impact of Brexit on the UK economy. He met with Mamoru Hatazawa, the senior vice-president at Toshiba who is head of the company’s energy division. A ministerial spokesman said on Thursday morning: “While the government has engaged regularly with the companies involved, this is entirely a commercial decision for Toshiba.”

One industry figure described the NuGen decision as “another casualty of Brexit”. Theresa May had promised to help the owners and then failed to deliver any concrete plan, he claimed.

The GMB union criticised the government for failing to give enough support to Toshiba over the site. “The British government has blood on its hands as the final sad but predictable nail is banged into the coffin of Toshiba’s jinxed jaunt into nuclear power,” said Justin Bowden, the union’s national secretary. “Relying in this way on foreign companies for our country’s essential energy needs was always irresponsible . . . multiple opportunities to step in and take control were missed or ignored.”

"“The clear difference for the UK though, is that the huge uptick in earthquakes in the US has very little to do with fracking and is actually more to do with reinjection of water produced from conventional oil and gas wells, as well as fracked wells,” Shipton said.

That’s not allowed in the UK which means the kind of tremors we could likely see here would be more comparable to those we’ve seen in the past from coal-mining. The Preese Hall report suggested that existing evidence from coal-mining induced earthquakes suggests “a maximum magnitude of ~3.0 ML.”

You’d certainly feel that, but your house wouldn’t fall down. As the report notes: “There have been no reports of structural damage from mining-induced earthquakes of this magnitude in the UK, so an event induced by a hydraulic fracture treatment at a greater depth is unlikely to cause structural damage.”

That doesn’t mean it’s not a problem for people living in the area who like their plaster intact and their crockery where they left it. .."

"Both the roundhouse and the nearby engine sheds were converted into a venue for Derby College, and the space has been used for a variety of functions, including as a location for the TV programme Antiques Roadshow, the BBC Spending Review, and Ultra White-Collar Boxing. Sadly not all at the same time."

"The timber-framed Kirklees Priory Gatehouse in Brighouse, West Yorkshire, had been on the register since 1998 but following repairs funded by Historic England, it was removed last year.

Although most of it was built in the early 16th Century, parts of its timber framing came from a medieval nunnery founded on the site during the reign of Henry II (1154-89).

A favourite haunt of Charlotte Brontë, it is also claimed to be where Robin Hood died.

Folklore suggests the prioress was his aunt and she sheltered him when he fled from the Sheriff of Nottingham. Another version of the story is that in old age Robin Hood fell ill and went to visit his cousin (rather than aunt) the prioress, so that he could be bled and restored to health.

However, his cousin conspired with her lover, Sir Roger of Doncaster, to kill Robin. So she opened a vein, locked Robin in the upper room of the gatehouse, and let him bleed to death. It's also said that he decided his own burial site by shooting an arrow from his deathbed in the gatehouse.

The arrow, somewhat implausibly, flew more than a mile. But still, that's where his grave is."

"Changes to the way the impact of proposed development on the significance of designated heritage asset is assessed, which were already anticipated in the draft revised NPPF, are now confirmed and further clarified; paragraph 193 states that ‘great weight should be given to the asset’s conservation […] irrespective of whether any potential harm amounts to substantial harm, total loss or less than substantial harm to its significance’.

Finally, where a development proposal will lead to less than substantial harm to the significance of a designated heritage asset, ‘this harm should be weighed against the public benefits of the proposal including, where appropriate, securing its optimum viable use’. The term ‘optimum viable use’ was included in the original NPPF but not in the draft revised NPPF."

An hospital was founded here, prior to 1179, by William Earl of Albemarle. ((Latin: Alba Marla meaning "White Marl") ... all very William of Normandy 1066.

Oddly enuff that led to the 100 Year War.

"The Hundred Years’ War saw some major developments in military strategy and technology. Indeed, some historians have argued that these changes amount to a ‘military revolution’.

Among such developments, the evolution of gunpowder weaponry was particularly significant..."

"When Chinese alchemists invented gunpowder it was a mistake. The alchemists were trying to find a potion for immortality and instead they wound up making an explosion. So the opposite effect came out of the original Idea. Gunpowder consists of potassium nitrate, common charcoal, and sulfur."

"The Irish Aviation Authority is investigating reports of bright lights and UFOs off the south-west coast of Ireland.

It began at 06:47 local time on Friday 9 November when a British Airways pilot contacted Shannon air traffic control.

She wanted to know if there were military exercises in the area because there was something "moving so fast".

The air traffic controller said there were no such exercises.

The pilot, flying from the Canadian city of Montreal to Heathrow, said there was a "very bright light" and the object had come up along the left side of the aircraft before it "rapidly veered to the north".

She was wondering what it could be but said it did not seem to be heading for a collision.

Another pilot from a Virgin plane joined in and suggested it might be a meteor or another object re-entering the earth's atmosphere..."

"Many of the events will be themed around the moon to celebrate the 50th anniversary year of the first landing on the astronomical body by astronauts Neil Armstrong and Buzz Aldrin, and because the first week of the Festival will coincide with a Full Moon phase.

To that end visitors can expect moon gazing sessions using powerful telescopes, nocturnal nature watch evenings together with guided cycling, running and walking events in woodland, across the moors and in coastal villages under moonlit skies as well as family crafting activities such as rocket-making."

Alan Greenspan, the former Federal Reserve chair, observed that sales of men's underwear can detect the beginnings an economic slump. Sales are usually stable because they rank as a necessity - 3.4 pairs per man a year. But at of financial strain sales will start to decline.

Recession or not? No, underwear sales are booming globally and are set to hit almost $12bn by 2020 and Mr Greenspan's record as Fed chair was shredded by the 2008 recession."

"The Government talks a lot of hot air about climate change, but the attitude seems to be: "Oh Lord, make me pure - but not yet!"

Pledges to deal with the environmental threat have proved to be little more than greenwash, and the Government avoided the politically ­difficult task of hiking carbon taxes in the budget.

Taoiseach Leo Varadkar admitted Ireland will miss EU carbon-emission reduction targets for 2020 and could face having to pay hundreds of millions of euro for credits.

Like the rich SUV driver ignoring parking restrictions and speeding fines, Ireland has ignored the penalties, and the Taoiseach told the Dáil that Ireland hopes to meet carbon-reduction targets for 2030."

"The network of islands and islets, located roughly halfway between Africa and Madagascar, is governed by France, but is also claimed by the island nation of Comoros.

On the morning of May 10, this region was rocked by a quake that turned up without warning, and which didn't come alone – being followed by a series of hundreds of tremors that have yet to disappear..."

"Fighting now for her political survival, the prime minister was defiant outside No 10 this morning, as she told her MPs she "will contest that vote with everything I've got" and warned wavering Brexiteers that ousting her could result in their precious Brexit not happening at all.

Her cabinet have publicly rowed in behind her, but this is a secret ballot and she cannot know if she can win.

If she does, MPs cannot call another vote for 12 months and she will claim victory, demand the party fall in behind her and try to press on with her Brexit plan, emboldened.

To do that convincingly, she'll have to win by a big margin.

If she loses, Britain will have a new prime minister in the new year and whoever it is is likely to be a Brexiteer given that it is the hugely eurosceptic party membership who have the final say in who should be leader."

"So easy to criticise from the sidelines but no other deal delivers on pre-referendum promises of frictionless trade, end to free movement, no EU budget contribution, Independent trade deals and no hard border in Northern Ireland."