Eyes on the Competition : Denver Broncos

The sigh of relief from John Elway’s office once Peyton Manning announced he’ll make another go of it can be heard from the Rocky Mountains all the way to the East Coast.

Elway has done a nice job of building a formidable team behind Manning to compete for championships, but that would have all been for not after three Ring-less seasons and an abysmal showing in the divisional round vs Manning’s old stomping grounds Indianapolis.

The Broncos have been active players in the Free Agency market over the last few years, and have built a championship caliber team around Manning. To understand their offseason this year and beyond, you must understand their 2014 offseason.

Fans always scream for their teams to go “ALL IN BABY!” in the offseason, no matter the sport. For Denver, it seemed to make sense. Manning was 36 years old when the Broncos signed him, and they knew the window of opportunity for a Super Bowl was small.

After reaching the game’s biggest stage – Super Bowl 49 – and getting absolutely obliterated, the thirst for a Lombardi trophy was just intensified. Combine that with some cap space, and you essentially have a twelve year old managing a team’s roster on a Xbox.

Big money – and I mean BIG money – was dished out to help an already pretty good defense. Aqib Talib was poached from New England, but came with the Pretty Penny cost of 6 years $57 million with $25.5 million guaranteed. The 29 year old is not up for Free Agency until 2020, and most likely can’t be cut due to dead cap hits until 2017 or 2018 at the earliest.

T.J. Ward was brought in to help sure up the back end of the secondary. He inked a 4 year $22.5 million contract with over half – $14 million – guaranteed. He isn’t up for Free Agency until 2018.

And you can’t forget about my personal favorite – the once great and now expendable DeMarcus Ware. He signed a 3 year $30 million deal – and he is safe on the roster until at least 2016 due to his $10,333,334 2015 dead cap hit.

What proved to be their best signing last year by far was Emmanuel Sanders, and his modest 3 year $15 million deal. He proved to be a significant upgrade over Eric Decker, especially when you consider Decker’s 5 year $36.25 million signing with the Jets.

The Broncos seemed poised for a Super Bowl run. Elway knew the contracts of Demaryius Thomas, Pot Roast Knighton, Julius Thomas, Chris Harris, Orlando Franklin, Rahim Moore were all in the near future. He also knew Von Miller, Manny Ramirez, Danny Trevathan, Derek Wolfe and Malik Jackson were all in the near distant future.

If they won it all last year, nobody would have cared about the risky spending. Elway would have been dubbed a genius while Peyton Manning would have gotten’ some G.O.A.T. talk and likely gone off to the sunset.

Those dreams crashed to Earth when Manning was clearly not 100% in the playoffs and the Colts beat down Denver at Mile High. Now we have a potential salary cap nightmare on our hands.

Demaryius Thomas received the franchise tag and rightfully so. After dishing out big money extensions to Ryan Clady ( 5yr/ $52.5M) and Chris Harris (5yr/ $42.5M) the Broncos simply didn’t have enough capital to pay the star wide out. Instead the plan is to franchise Thomas and when Manning retires, ink Thomas to a long term deal.

When thinking of the long term deal Thomas could receive, it could rival Calvin Johnson’s mega pact of 7 years $113,450,000. I would guess Thomas’ deal comes in at around 6 years $90 million in the future.

Past Thomas, the Broncos lost a lot of key assets this offseason. It simply is the product of pushing all of your chips in the middle, as Denver did last year. The NFL isn’t really about 11 v 11 of men trying to tackle, run, and score. It’s a numbers game – if you haven’t caught the common theme of this article already.

Pot Roast Knighton bolted for Washington. Julius Thomas will be paired with Marcedes Lewis to form one of the better tight end combinations in the league in Jacksonville. Orlando Franklin will be suiting up for division rival San Diego next year, and Rahim Moore joins JJ Watt and Vince Wilfork in Houston to help sure up their secondary.

TE Jacob Tamme will be playing in Atlanta next season. SS Quinton Carter and WR Wes Welker still remain a free agents.

The best free agent acquisitions thus far have been productive TE Owen Daniels, DT Vance Walker and OG Shelley Smith. I personally think Daniels is a great find and will be very productive next year given a healthy #18.

Draft Needs – RT, DT, QB, S, OG

I list five pressing needs for the Broncos. In most occasions, that would scream a rebuilding team or what not. However with Denver that certainly is not the case, as they expect to compete for a Super Bowl next season.

Why RT: I just don’t believe Chris Clark should and will be the starting RT for the Broncos. The team has one of the best blind side protectors in the game in Ryan Clady, so patching up the right side would be ideal for Manning’s last title quest.

Why DT: This is arguably the most obvious need on the team. With Wade Phillips and his 3-4 system being established, Pot Roast Knighton would have been a beautiful fit. As we know from the math lesson earlier, Pot Roast will be dining with Dan Snyder this year which creates a big need at the nose position.

Why QB: Peyton Manning, presumably speaking, will be playing the last year of his career this year. Best case scenario for football fans everywhere he plays two more seasons. The Broncos need to make a serious decision on the progress of Brock Osweiler – and soon. His rookie deal is nearing as he is an unrestricted free agent after this season. Ultimately, I believe it is in the Broncos best interest to seriously consider drafting one of the top 3-4 quarterbacks in this class.

Why S: Rahim Moore gets bashed by the fans, media and most writers such as myself largely in part due to his inability to knock a pass down late in the 2013 divisional round match up with the Baltimore Ravens. It was a horrid mistake, but past that Moore has been one of the most consistent defensive backs in the Broncos secondary in recent years. I believe he will be missed next year by those Broncos fans still angry about the 2013 Ravens game, especially if a solid safety isn’t taken this year.

Why OG: The least pressing of the five needs, but a need nonetheless. I believe it is possible to upgrade over Jon Halapio and Shelley Smith in this draft. As I said earlier, if this is Manning’s last hurrah, Denver should do everything in their power to solidify the offensive line and keep #18 upright.

With the 28th pick in the 2015 NFL Draft…

How early would Denver consider drafting a quarterback?

Denver can go a lot of different ways here. Overall, the Broncos own 10 picks (a pick in every round – 2 5’s 3 7’s) which allows them to be aggressive with one of the top available players other than a specific need.

Oklahoma DT Jordan Phillips is a pretty nice fit in my eyes. His tape isn’t overly impressive to say the least, so I understand the criticisms. This could turn out to be one of the biggest boom or bust picks in the entire draft however, so I think Phillips is worth the risk. Great mobility for his massive 6’5 330 lbs frame. Shows great ability to bull the centers backwards as well as quick feet and hands to slide by interior linemen. He’d be very intriguing to me.

Iowa DT Carl Davis is another interesting guy for me as his tools and traits will translate nicely into Wade Phillips’ system. Similar to Phillips, Davis is a massive individual at 6’5 320lbs. I would say he’s even better at shedding lineman then Phillips as he shows outstanding athleticism. He struggles when he gets too high off the line, which I think can and will be corrected.

To me, OT T.J. Clemmings might be the most ideal scenario for Denver. I believe he can play right away as he is one of the most athletic lineman in this draft. He may not be around when Denver is on the clock, but if he is I think the former Pittsburgh Panthers’ star would be a great fit and should be deeply considered.

Another athletic OT I like as a solid fit for Denver is Florida LT D.J. Humphries. He’s a little more raw in my eyes then Clemmings but certainly could fit the bill as the next Denver RT. Humphries is quick off the snap and highly athletic for his size compared to other OT’s. He is another one who may not make it to the Broncos pick, but would be a solid choice if he did.

This would be a shocker to most – not to me. QB Brett Hundley, first round pick, future of the Denver Broncos. Hear me out before you throw the fruit my way. Hundley – clearly – has all of the physical traits you want in a quarterback going forward. He struggles with consistency and the overall mental aspect of the game, and isn’t ready to be a NFL starting quarterback. With a year of learning under Manning, who knows, Denver could get the ultimate steal of the first round. Denver could even get a stop-gap quarterback after Manning until Hundley could be ready as he is still just 21 years old and is one of the youngest players in the draft. Obviously, this doesn’t help them win right away, which is why this pick is unlikely.

Past the first round, a few names stand out to me as targets for the Broncos. Ohio State TE Jeff Heuerman would be a nice middle round fit. Don’t look at last year’s stats for him as they are worthless to me. Heuerman is going to be a good solid pro and would make an immediate impact in both the run and pass game.

Virginia Tech versatile safety Kyshoen Jarrett could fit the billing as the mid-round safety the Broncos are looking for. Asked to play a variety of roles at Va Tech, Jarrett is well rounded and an underrated prospect in this draft. Two other safeties I like as potential prospects here are TCU’s Chris Hackett and Virginia’s Anthony Harris.

At some point, some linebacker help will be needed as well. Look for a mid to late round fix at this position. A pair of Georgia backers in Ramik Wilson and Amarlo Herrera could fit that billing. Another late round guy I would like here is Alabama ILB Trey DePriest.

Overall Outlook

If you read my Chargers piece a few weeks back, the ending has been spoiled for you. I believe San Diego – with Phillip Rivers at quarterback – will win the AFC West this season. Denver should be one of the two wild card teams at the very least.

It will be interesting to see if Peyton Manning can recapture some of that 2014 magic where the passing offense was near unstoppable before the Super Bowl, or if we will see more of the same from the porous effort against the Colts last winter.

If Denver has any aspirations of a Super Bowl, Peyton Manning will have to be an MVP caliber quarterback again to hide the flaws caused by massive free agent spending recently.

The Patriots travel to Denver for Sunday Night Football on November 29 – following a Monday Night tilt with Buffalo.

I like your draft board a lot but I hope the Patriots use a bit broader approach. Perfect fit aside, there are players in this draft who represent strong value. Here are 18 more guys that I hope the Pats consider, bringing the total to 75:

I have Mauldin as a DE, not LB – he is 10lbs short of being a Michael Bennett type DE in the NFL and I think that’s where he projects down the line; Mauldin is too slow in space and stiff to play LB.

As for the rest, there are some players who I don not think fit scheme-wise with the Pats while many others I don’t see making the roster for one reason or another. Roster spots would be limited this year, which is why I tried to “narrow down” the board with prospects primarily projecting in the top 4-5 rounds, by my estimation, except for OL, LB, CB and a potential wild-card pick at TE.

Looks about like my Patriots draft board. No a Fan of RB Cobb, or DE Edwards, But I do like DE Henry Anderson(I know you don’t), Grady Jarrett, and I have NO TE’s.

Saw a Mock today that had Landon Collins at #32,…. HMMMM, What is your thoughts? Tomlinon WILL NOT make it to #64, and he and Ervin are my two highest rated prospects followed by Kenny Bell, and Davis Tull. I think I would PASS, (doubt he drops to #32 anyhow.

I think Grady Jarrett is being over-rated a bit and like a similar player in Tyeler Davison better, at better value later in the draft. In general, I have tried to stay away from players with average size/maxed out frame at the DT position (and certainly away from those who project to go earlier in the draft); have more of the 6’3″-6’5″ variety on my board.

TEs I put in just to spice up the board. Don’t think it’s a position of need, or that there is particular value to be found in this draft. One exception is maybe, just maybe, trying to find some competition, and potential replacement, for Hooman at a fraction of the price. That’s pretty much why I have only prospects projecting in the 7th or as UDFA.

Regarding Collins, I haven’t given it much though tbh. I like the player just think I’d ratehr go with Shaq Thompson as he offers more scheme flexibility over COllins. They are both very similar – 6’0″ 228, iirc – so there is that but don’t think I like either in the 1st.
I think Shaq T has a better chance at falling in the draft as he lacks a well defined role and teams I think tend to stay away from such “high bust risk” situations (unlike the Pats, that is). Collins offers less scheme flexibility imo but has a well defined position entering the draft so I think he will go earlier, as presumably the safer option. That would equate to “worse value” from Pats perspective though, which is an extra insentive to go with Thompson over Collins.

Former Oregon Duck and Green bay Packer TE Colt Lyerla is looking for a team and a chance to get back in the league after reaching an injury settlement with the Packers and getting cut. Lyerla was the most intriguing and polarizing athlete in last years draft. If i were the Pats, i would bring this guy to camp, it’ll cost you nothing but his potential is the upside.

I like Lyerla’s athletic potential. He apparently chose not to have surgery last year, so it’s not for sure he’ll pass his physical this year. His off-field issues were the real concern. He says he did rehab 1.5 years ago and has been clean ever since, so maybe he’s growing up.

It must give the Pats pause to consider having another talented, troubled move Tight End to consider adding to the roster. That said, Lyerla has been transparent about his problems, and has never been the sort to get away with things, so maybe he really is learning from his experiences and ready to be a professional. I think he’d be a very exciting player to watch. He played running back and linebacker in high school, so he could be used as TE, Slot Receiver, Full Back, and special teams.

ACM, with all due respect, what the hell are you talking about exactly? What about the crime, trial and punishment of a murderous psychopath could you possibly be conflating with bringing a talented, hopefully recovering drug abuser into training camp for a series of workouts?

I always look forward to reading your posts because you and a select few others here represent some of the most knowledgeable fans of any sports franchise. But, you’re reaching here. Even if some justifiable conflating of these two vastly divergent issues were to draw the ire of local and national media, why should I care as a fan? I care about rings on Coach Belichick and Tom Brady’s fingers. I have no concern as to whether or not critics will point fingers at the management for signing a player with a troubled past. It would be a mistake to adopt a draft or recruiting strategy that revolves around avoiding any player with any manner of besmirched past. Do I want Craft to employ any Hernandez’s, OJ Simpson’s or Rae Carruth’s, of course not. But I don’t look to football players for leadership as role models. They simply provide entertainment. Therefore, I don’t care if we sign a guy who has been through rehabilitation for a substance abuse problem.

Lyerla said back in the day that the Boston bombings were a government plot/conspiracy or something along those lines. So let me hear it again how those are two divergent issues and how Lyerla is a fine choice for the Pats?

Sure. I’ll reiterate that you are conflating issues. Lyerla made stupid conspiratorial comments concerning the horrific Sandy Hook Elementary School shooting. He did not comment on the Boston Bombing, though his comments on the at least equally tragic school shooting are just as disturbing. He never commented on Tsarnaev You were mistaken concerning the offense that he has given.

But, as I’d mentioned before, I don’t idolize and celebrate athletes as heroes. I don’t need Lyerla to tell me what to believe or who to vote for. Therefore, he can be as batshitcrazy as he’d like. It doesn’t effect me. For some team he will get paid to catch touchdown passes. I suspect he will be paid handsomely and that he will catch a great number of passes. I’m not saying the dude is a bastion of light. But he isn’t a convicted or suspected violent criminal either. There are a great number of people who also suspect the trade center attacks were perpetrated by the U. S. Government. Of course I think that is ridiculously idiotic. But those people have the write to think what they wish, as do I and so do you.

Sure. I’ll reiterate that you are conflating issues. Lyerla made stupid conspiratorial comments concerning the horrific Sandy Hook Elementary School shooting. He did not comment on the Boston Bombing, though his comments on the at least equally tragic school shooting are just as disturbing. He never commented on Tsarnaev You were mistaken concerning the offense that he has given.

But, as I’d mentioned before, I don’t idolize and celebrate athletes as heroes. I don’t need Lyerla to tell me what to believe or who to vote for. Therefore, he can be as batsh*tcrazy as he’d like. It doesn’t effect me. For some team he will get paid to catch touchdown passes. I suspect he will be paid handsomely and that he will catch a great number of passes. I’m not saying the dude is a bastion of light. But he isn’t a convicted or suspected violent criminal either. There are a great number of people who also suspect the trade center attacks were perpetrated by the U. S. Government. Of course I think that is ridiculously idiotic. But those people have the write to think what they wish, as do I and so do you.

I stand corrected – he made those comments in regard to Sandy Hook. The point still stand though – in light of the Hernandez and Tsarnaev cases being in the spot light, not sure what makes you guys think that Bringing in a guy with questionable NFL potential and character, who made those comments about horrible events in CT, New England, would somehow be a smart decision.
It’s just not happening and the easier you guys figure this one out, the less disappointed you will be. Plus a team like the Packers, known to give players a second chance, is already looking to wash their hands off this guy … not really sure what makes you think he is worth the trouble to begin with, a decision made that much simpler by his comments and character history. A few youtube clips, I am guessing?

Nick Casario had a recent interview and there is speculation that the Patriots might trade up, owning 9 picks in the draft and having 15 or 16 spots to get to 90 player, he mentioned possible UDFAs he would like to sign. If so who could the Patriots go for ( Todd Gurly, a top WR,DT, or CB???? )

Unless someone really unexpectedly takes a huge tumble down the draft board, I would see DT Malcom Brown as the best candidate, as I see a significant drop-off between him and the rest of the DT class. I think there’s a less noticeable drop-off for O-linemen, edge players, corners, or even receivers from the mid 20s to 32 or even beyond. I could see the Cowboys or the Panthers being trade partners looking to add pick 96 or 101.

I agree with this 100%, which is is why I am not a huge fan of taking interior o-linemen early in drafts. Why take a guard who rates 92 out of 100 in the first when you can get an 82 our of 100 in the 3rd? The drop off with positions like CB and defensive line is so much greater and also happen to be big team needs this year.

Then again, the Pats could also move up in the second or third round, as there would seem to be more attractive options at the top of these rounds vs the last picks of these rounds. If someone they like falls to the middle of the second or third, they have the ammo to get them.

Stating the obvious – if the Pats end up taking a guy at #32, it’ll be for one of two reasons:
a) they think he’s pretty special (perhaps in ways that a lot of us won’t immediately appreciate)
b) they just couldn’t find a good enough trade-down offer

If they trade around for value, though, I could see them ending up with a pick in the 35-40 range, another in the 45-55 range, a mid-3rd, their 3rd-round comp, and then three 7th-rounders for PFAs.

I agree with Jeff, that BB may look to trade up in the 2nd or 3d round if a player is on the board they Value. I VERY much doubt BB trades up in the 1st round, as I don’t see a player with that kind of value.
I still like BB tradeing #32 to K.C. for #49 and #80. Then maybe he makes a move to get an additional 2nd,….. #80,#96 #177 and #219 to Dallas for #60 ??
Then BB would be looking at;
#49
#60
#64
#101
#131
#253
Looks Fair but who do you draft??

If they end up with those picks, I’d go with their top-rated CB – I think a solid one will drop to 49 – maybe J. Collins due to injury risk, or Rowe or Rollins?
60- Danielle Hunter – not a need, but I love this guy and think he could take over for Nink and Sheard in a couple of years.
64- Ali Marpet
97- Jeremy Langford – Again, not a huge need, but take advantage of the depth of this draft rather than reaching for a linebacker or defensive tackle
101- Josue Matias – or another guard. Too much need to pass on the guard position, even with Marpet in the fold
131- Leterrius Walton – maybe a reach, but I think this guy will be a solid depth DT.
253 – Zack Vigil – or whoever you want – whatever position you want a good practice squad/training camp body at to improve competition.

With a draft class like this, you’ll need to put off your impact DT and Mayo replacement until next years’ draft, so it may not be the best impact this season, but I do think you’d have a good shot at landing 3-5 potential starters.

My take on mr. Casario’s remarks are;
1st- Any player the Patriots draft will have a defined role in mind.
2nd- They have a number of players in mind, in a given area of the draft,… 2nd, 3d , 7th etc.
3d- A number of prospects , WILL be signed after the draft. DL Blackson??
4th- Trades will depend on the draft board/ Partners available, and Prospect available.
5th- Retired coach Scar,’s help with OL prospects is invalueable. Working privetly with Tomlinson.