New Orleans’ levees seem likely to hold

UPDATE: Brendan Loy is providing a steady stream of updates on Gustav that are well worth following.

ORIGINAL ENTRY: From nola.com in regards to the potential for catastrophic flooding from Gustav:

Army Corps of Engineers chiefs say they anticipate no storm surge flooding due to Hurricane Gustav, which is turning out to be far less than what was previously forecast by the National Weather Service.

But they do anticipate localized flooding due to heavy rainfall. That water will have to be handled by local drainage and pumping systems in each parish, they say.

“The dewatering of the internal city due to rainfall will be up to these non-federal pumping stations,” said Brigadier Gen. Robert Van Antwerp, the corps’ chief of engineers.

Given that Gustav’s forward speed remains high at 16 mph toward the northwest, and the storm is now moving away from New Orleans, I wouldn’t expect serious consequences from rainfall flooding. Estimated rainfall in the metro area could be as much as 10 inches during the next two days, which will stress the city’s pumps, but probably not break them.

Also it appears Gustav will come ashore at least 20 miles west of Grand Isle, La., the location I predicted would be the breakpoint for serious levee consequences in New Orleans.

That’s where a slightly larger hurricane, Betsy, came ashore in 1965 and produced as much as a 15-foot surge in New Orleans.

Obviously it’s way too early to declare an all-clear on catastrophic damage in New Orleans, but the early signs are quite promising.