Lincecum should stay through 2014

Not only should the Giants keep Tim Lincecum through Wednesday's trade deadline, but they also should bring him back in 2014.

"I would assume his No. 1 choice would be to stay there," a high-profile agent told me.

Under the new collective bargaining agreement, the Giants have the option to make a qualifying offer of roughly $14 million to Lincecum, who'll be a free agent, and that's their intention. Should he reject it and sign elsewhere, it would guarantee the Giants a compensatory draft pick immediately after the first round.

Lincecum's value on the open market would be lower if the Giants made a qualifying offer because a team that signed him would need to forfeit a high draft pick. For example, Kyle Lohse received a qualifying offer from the Cardinals, and he wasn't able to sign until a week before Opening Day with the Brewers, who lost their first-round pick. The Cardinals made out nicely - picking 19th (their own slot) and 28th (as compensation).

A qualifying offer is calculated by averaging the top 125 salaries from the previous season. Last year, it was $13.3 million. It should rise slightly this year.

If Lincecum, who's making $22 million, believes he wouldn't make more than $14 million elsewhere - yes, an $8 million pay cut - he could accept the offer from the Giants and try to improve his market value in 2014.

The Giants, who lack pitching prospects ready for the majors, need Lincecum, who has the third best ERA in the rotation and 10-plus strikeouts in three of his past four starts, and perhaps Lincecum needs the Giants, given the climate and pitcher-friendly ballpark.

Then again, he could reject the offer, as all nine who received one last winter did, three of whom re-signed with their original teams. From there, anything's possible, even the Yankees.

"If he's going to another place, that would be a pretty special spot," the agent said. "There are certain guys who probably shy away from that, but he's not one of them. He marches to the beat of his own drum. It doesn't matter if it's San Fran, New York, L.A. or wherever."