We’re told that the next “L” lens Canon announces will likely be the EF 100-400 f/4.5-5.6L IS replacement. The odds are still on it being announced around the time of the EOS 7D replacement, which we hear is for Photokina, so I we expect an announcement some time in August of this year.

All we’ve heard about the lens is that it will not be push/pull zoom and will be quite a bit more expensive than the current and aging version.

Frankly, it should not cost more than the 70-200/2.8L IS II (which is, indeed, substantially more than the current 100-400L). Hopefully, street price will drop under $2,000 in a year or so like it did with the new 70-200 (when I bought mine).

I hope the new one is solid on the 7D II and with a 1.4x TC. That would be the ultimate in easily hand-holdable reach.

I'll keep a possible Tamron 150-600 purchase on hold until we find out.

Still, what is the attraction of releasing it at Photokina? A lot of tech releases have moved away from the show schedule. I would think that June would be the optimal date to release a 7D2+100-400, and sell it to every single summer-holiday-safari goer in the world.

There will be a lot of 200-400f/4 Lenses going cheap if this was the case

I think the 3.5k price Tag is pretty well ballpark though, the Nikon 80-400f/4.5 is selling for around 2.7k so you can safely bet the Canon will be close to 1k more expensive, be worth it as well if they can maintain a constant f/4.

Would work perfectly on the 1DMK IV.

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There will be a lot of 200-400f/4 Lenses going cheap if this was the case

I think the 3.5k price Tag is pretty well ballpark though, the Nikon 80-400f/4.5 is selling for around 2.7k so you can safely bet the Canon will be close to 1k more expensive, be worth it as well if they can maintain a constant f/4.

Would work perfectly on the 1DMK IV.

The 70-200F4IS has about the same IQ as the 70-200F2.8ISThe 24-70F4IS has almost the same IQ as the 24-70F2.8

So a 100-400F5.6 (no internal teleconverter) could very well have the same IQ as the 200-400F4....

There will be a lot of 200-400f/4 Lenses going cheap if this was the case

I think the 3.5k price Tag is pretty well ballpark though, the Nikon 80-400f/4.5 is selling for around 2.7k so you can safely bet the Canon will be close to 1k more expensive, be worth it as well if they can maintain a constant f/4.

Would work perfectly on the 1DMK IV.

The 70-200F4IS has about the same IQ as the 70-200F2.8ISThe 24-70F4IS has almost the same IQ as the 24-70F2.8

So a 100-400F5.6 (no internal teleconverter) could very well have the same IQ as the 200-400F4....

But however you slice it, it will not be inexpensive.

Your comparing midrange L lenses to each other. The Canon great white superteles are in an entirely different class, there isn't any kind of comparison to be made between any one of the 70-200's and even the 200mm or 300mm great white Ls, let alone the 100-400 L II and the 200-400 L.

It's highly unlikely that a midrange L-series lens that costs anywhere between $2000 and $3500 will have the same IQ as the $10,000 200-400 L. It just ain't going to happen. The longer zoom range alone is going to dictate that it won't happen. The extra 100mm of focal length is going to put additional stress at some other focal length (it's all tradeoffs, either less zoom range but better IQ across the range, or more zoom range with IQ losses somewhere), and for Canon to make it true "supertele" quality would mean it would HAVE to cost at least as much as if not MORE than the 200-400 (even without a built-in TC).

You realize how nutty that request is? It would be bigger (and more expensive) than the 200-400/4.

Not if it's an EF-S L

Show us your calculations. A 100-400mm ef-s lens is not going to be noticeably smaller or cheaper, just because its EF-s, because the front element size is set by the f/4 aperture , EF-s only matters for wide angle lenses. That's why we do not have 400mm ef-s lenses, they are the same size and cost.