With the preliminary exit polls out now for Japan’s upper house election, all the major media are predicting a majority of available seats–likely 75-plus out of 121–for the ruling coalition led by Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, as expected. Both the coalition members, Mr. Abe’s Liberal Democratic Party, and the smaller New Komeito, are seen performing in line with forecasts.
But among the parties whose fates were less certain, it’s clear even at this preliminary stage that there are winners and losers.

Agence France-Presse/Getty Images

Ballot boxes are opened to count ballot papers for Japan’s Upper House elections at an election office in Tokyo on July 21.

Here’s JRT’s first look:

The biggest loser: Democratic Party of Japan

It’s hard to believe that the DPJ was the ruling party in Japan just eight months ago. It was toppled from government in the December lower house election that brought Mr. Abe to power. Now it appears to have lost well over half of the 44 seats it was contesting in the upper house. The first media exit polls estimate the party will end up with around 18 seats. National broadcaster NHK forecast a range of 14-21 seats. There’s some question whether the sole DPJ candidate the party ran in Tokyo, Kan Suzuki, will get a seat at all. Some media outlets are showing him lagging well behind others in the field.

With such a dismal showing, speculation could turn to whether DPJ leader Banri Kaieda will resign to take responsibility.

“It’s clear that trust in the DPJ has still not returned,” said Goshi Hosono, the party’s secretary general, in a TV interview after the polls closed.

Likely winner: Japanese Communist Party

So who’s likely to be picking up seats at the expense of the DPJ? Some smaller opposition parties, according to the first exit poll results. Among them: the 91-year-old Japanese Communist Party. The JCP is seeing a mini-resurgence in popularity, as an alternative to the right-leaning LDP. It’s also rolled out a digital remake, featuring eight cartoon mascots, in hopes of projecting a hipper, more voter-friendly image. JCP had said it was aiming to get five seats this election; the exit polls see it landing around seven or eight.

Disappointed: Japan Restoration Party

The Japan Restoration Party, co-led by mercurial Osaka Mayor Toru Hashimoto, is also showing a possible seven or eight seats won — on the high end of some projections. Nevertheless, Mr. Hashimoto isn’t pleased. The party, which formed last year at a time when the mayor was consistently ranked as Japan’s most popular politician, had a goal of 10 upper house seats. But Mr. Hashimoto has been eclipsed by the success and rising popularity of the LDP’s Mr. Abe. A series of verbal flubs by Mr. Hashimoto–including some on Japan’s history of enforced wartime prostitution–further pummeled his ratings, and those of his party. “As the party leader, I’m in no position to be proud of this result,” Mr. Hashimoto said in a TV appearance after the polls closed.

Comments (1 of 1)

The Japanese must repeal Article 9 of their constitution and must also create a presidential system. A strong, effective foreign policy requires a directly elected president with authority to direct a military force unhindered by Article 9.

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