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Johnson has edge over Keselowski in two-man sprint to NASCAR Cup title

October 29, 2012

Jimmie Johnson, right, leads Brad Keselowski by a mere two points with three races left in NASCAR's Chase for the Championship. Photo by LAT PHOTOGRAPHIC

With all due respect to Clint Bowyer and Kasey Kahne—after all, they still might surprise us—the Chase for the Sprint Cup has become a two-man affair.

Jimmie Johnson and Brad Keselowski separated themselves from Denny Hamlin and the other Chase hopefuls by finishing first and sixth, respectively, in last weekend's Tums 500 at Martinsville Speedway.

Now, with races remaining at Fort Worth, Phoenix and Homestead, they're far enough ahead in points to concentrate only on each other. Johnson leads by two points over Keselowski, by 26 over Bowyer and by 29 over Kahne. Fifth-ranked Hamlin trails by 49 and has already conceded that he can't leap-frog the four drivers ahead of him.

Most NASCAR-watchers favor Johnson for his sixth title in the past seven seasons. He and Knaus finished fifth, second, second and fifth in final points between 2002 and 2005, then won five consecutive Cups between 2006 and 2010. They stumbled badly last year, finishing a career-worst sixth as Tony Stewart won the Cup in a “most wins” tiebreaker over Carl Edwards. If experience and expectations mean anything, Johnson easily wins his sixth title.

He also has a huge advantage in on-track performances at the next three venues. He has a win, eight top-fives and 13 top-10s in 18 career starts at Texas Motor Speedway and four wins, 12 top-5s and 15 top-10s in 18 starts at Phoenix International Raceway. He's 0-for-11 at Homestead-Miami Speedway, but has four top-fives and seven top-10s in 11 starts there. (In the past five years, he didn't always need a strong finish to clinch the title.)

Keselowski is a combined 0-for-18 in Texas, Phoenix and Homestead, with only one top-five and two total top-10s. Johnson was fourth at Phoenix in the spring, when Keselowski was fifth. Johnson was second at Texas several weeks later, when Keselowski was 36th. Last year, Johnson beat Keselowski in both races at Texas and both at Phoenix, and only at Homestead last fall did Keselowski beat Johnson in recent years at one of the final three venues.

Pundits looking for significant differences in intangibles aren't finding many. Knaus is an acknowledged master of car preparation, race-day strategy and running his team. Wolfe, far less experienced as a crew chief, is admired for deftly handling the 28-year-old Keselowski and his freewheeling style of racing. If both teams suffer major damage or mechanical ills during the last three races, odds are Knaus will make the most of it. If any of the final three races comes down to fuel mileage, the odds swing toward Keselowski. The differences in the pit crews are too close to call.

Some have called Keselowski's sixth-place last weekend “the Martinsville Miracle.” He qualified 32nd and was close to being lapped early before a series of cautions saved him. By skipping a late-race stop, he inherited the lead and stayed there for eight laps, earning one bonus point. Since Martinsville is among Johnson's best tracks, losing only a handful of points didn't surprise Keselowski all that much. He disputed those who said sixth place under the circumstances was almost like a win.

“No, it's like being in a war and surviving a battle,” the Penske Racing driver said. “It's not necessarily a win—you're just happy to still be living. It feels like you live another day. But we need to do more than survive to win the championship. We didn't have a shot to win today [Martinsville isn't one of his better tracks] and we got a solid finish, so I feel confident about that. This shows the potential we have together, that we're still growing together. But I believe we can do this, I really do. We've got work ahead of us, but we're doing all the right things.”

Johnson's two-point advantage is the smallest after 33 races in the nine-year history of the Chase. Three drivers—Matt Kenseth in 2006, Jeff Gordon in 2007 and Carl Edwards last year—have lost the Cup after leading with three races remaining. Johnson knows enough to realize that those two points don't mean anything right now.

“I'm not counting him out because you can't do that,” he said of Keselowski. “I don't do it because I've been there. Anything can happen. He's a great driver and that's a great team, and the next two races could tell the tale. We could both wad it up next week [at Texas], and Clint Bowyer is your champion. We have to be the best to be the champions, and I think we're showing we're in form and ready to do that.”