But what about $140 per barrel? Yves Lamoureux, president of Lamoureux & Co., a market advisory firm based on behavioral economics, says we could get there by the end of 2015 even if the current troubles in Iraq fade away. The turbocharger behind this rise in prices: emerging markets.

The Obama Administration is considering lifting or easing restrictions on exporting U.S. crude that have been in place since 1975, a White House official on Sunday told Platts Energy Week, an all-energy news and talk show program.

“We’re seeing huge production increases in crude and so we’re thinking through the implications of that, in terms of economics, environmental … a whole bunch of dimensions,” Dan Ultech, a special assistant to the president for energy and climate said on Platts Energy Week.

The comments offered a strong hint that the Obama Administration is interested in testing the validity of export restrictions Congress enacted in 1975 after the 1973 Arab oil embargo prompted worries that the U.S. may run short of oil, Platts said in a press release Monday.

Analysts have raised concerns that West Texas Intermediate crude futures may be overbought and set for a price drop after data released Friday showed a spike in weekly net long positions among large speculative traders.

BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research, Bloomberg

In a note, analysts at Commerzbank said speculative net long positions in WTI climbed by more than 10% in the week ended Feb. 18. They hit a record 323,772 contracts, according to data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s Commitments of Traders report, released Friday. Long positions are essentially wagers on higher prices.

Confirmation of Iran’s agreement with Western powers to curb its nuclear program later this month isn’t a game changer for the oil markets, though it is a reminder of the downside risks for oil, according to a note from Capital Economics Monday.

Iran has said it will stop producing near-weapons grade nuclear fuel beginning on Jan. 20 and in turn, the U.S. and European Union have agreed to start easing some of their economic sanctions on the nation, including those on petrochemicals and precious metals.

Commodity investments are on track to register their largest outflows on record, with an $88 billion decline in assets under management year-over-year through November, according to a recent note from Barclays PLC.

But if precious metals exchange-traded products are excluded, there was a net inflow of almost $4 billion to commodity-index swaps and ETPs through November, the analysts, led by Suki Cooper said. “That means with one month’s data still to come, commodity index-linked investment flows in 2013 are on track for their first positive year in three.”

As members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries get ready for their last meeting of the year, set for Wednesday in Vienna, oil traders don’t seem to care what the big oil producers say about the collective oil output quota.

Bloomberg

OPEC will meet Dec. 4 in Vienna.

That’s because everyone’s wondering what members will do to keep the oil market balanced in the face of supply and production issues in Libya, Iraq and Iran.

The cartel’s collective quota sits at 30 million barrels per day and most traders and analysts expect the quota to stand, especially since members’ actual production matches it.

But even if OPEC leaves its quota untouched, members will still need to contend with developments in Middle East, North Africa region.

“If there is a resolution to Libya’s problems, it will add another million barrels per day to the market and someone within OPEC will need to cut by that amount,” said James Williams, energy economist at WTRG Economics, in a report dated Monday.

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