Are Retail Sales Really Better Than They Appear?

The pundits came out to spin retail sales numbers as being not as bad as they looked, etc. However, they are actually worse than they appear when we take a step back and look at the big picture at what has changed over the past couple of years. It is interesting that anyone is trying to spin the retail figures as anything other than horrible, but I guess when you are long only mutual funds you know where your bread is buttered. It is not in showing how bad the data really is. CNBC, (the ultimate spin machine, they should change their name to Spin Co.), liked to point out that electronic sales were up as well as furniture sales. Well, how about that - 2 areas that went up out of how many? We won’t mention that, but the negative list is much longer. Here is what is important to note, electronics went up because prices keep dropping, check your email for discounts from Dell (DELL) and Best Buy (BBY), but the real story is the iPad. What would happen if we subtract Apple's (AAPL) iPad sales out of the mix? I am willing to bet electronic sales look less rosy than the headline figure and the point is, how long will the iPad continue to sell so well? Who knows, but probably for a while. As far as furniture sales, well, you got me - other than that I am sure the sales were rich and prices are still dropping.Complete Story »

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Following all the glowing retail sales reports for Christmas, the actual numbers reported today show a mere .1% rise. Excluding autos which rose 1.5%, retail sales actually declined.
MarketWatch reports U.S. retail sales rise scant 0.1% in December
Sales at U.S. retailers increased 0.1% in December, the government said Thursday, in a report that bucked expectations of stronger sales during the holiday period.

Online sales in Canada have created a large enough dent in retail sales to fill up all the shopping centres in Vancouver, Halifax, Ottawa and Victoria combined, says a report out Tuesday.
Colliers International, in the fall edition of National Retail Report Canada, says what it calls non-retail sales drove $23 billion in activity in 2014 which represented 4.7 per cent of all retail sales. Much of these sales occur through what are called omni-channel, an industry term for the process whereby shoppers purchase from a retailer but not in-store.

Just a few months ago, we warned Brazil's economy was on the verge of collapse as the fiscal situation was deteriorating rapidly. It appears, judging by the most recent data from the oil-rich nation, that we were right. Broad retail sales have now declined for five consecutive months with the seasonally adjusted broad retail sales index now at the same level as early 2012.

Inquiring minds are noting the expected (at least in this corner) collapse in European retail sales as measured by PMI indices in Italy, France, and Germany, the three largest Eurozone economies.
Earlier today I took a look at France. For details, please see France Economic Implosion Underway; French Retail Sales Contract 9th Consecutive Month as Cost Inflation Surges.

Dismal economic conditions in the eurozone accelerate to the downside as evidenced by falling retail sales. Let's take a look at the Eurozone in aggregate, as well as the three largest countries.
Eurozone Retail Sales Drop Sharply
The Markit Eurozone Retail PMI® shows Eurozone retail sales continue to fall sharply towards end of 2012.
Key points

The word of the day is plunge. Retail sales fell like a rock in Germany and fell at a record pace in France. Jobs and retail sales plunged at a record pace in Italy, and in general, did a nose-dive across the entire Eurozone
German Retail Sales Plunge Into Contraction
Please Consider the Markit Germany Retail PMI® Report.
Fastest drop in retail sales since April 2010 as year-and-a-half run of growth comes to an end.

In the previous post on Retail Sales data, I covered Q2 comparatives across the years (http://trueeconomics.blogspot.ie/2014/05/3052014-that-state-sanctioned-inflation.html). As promised, here is April data taken on a monthly frequency.There are several very interesting developments in terms of core retail sales data released earlier this week by CSO. Stay patient as I cover it.Firstly, from the top level:

Retails sales stats for July 2013 were released yesterday amidst a torrent of data releases for Ireland this week. With slight delay, here's my take on the core numbers. All referencing seasonally-adjusted data.Core (ex-Motors) retail sales improved in value in July on seasonally-adjusted based, posting a rise of 2.32% m/m and 1.46% y/y.

Is the worst over for the Eurozone? That's what the ECB and heads of state said at the recent economic summit in Davos.
I offer some economic reality.
Eurozone Sales Collapse 15th Month and Wholesale Prices Soar
The Markit Eurozone Retail PMI® shows Eurozone retail sales downturn extends to fifteenth month in January
Key points: