After all the "Who wil win the X-Prize" topics, it's time for a "Who will win the America's Space Prize" topic. I think Scaled Composites and Blue Origin are the most likely to win. But i think Rutan has an annoying problem: he will have to choose between designing the CEV or trying to win bigelows prize. If he tries both he will have trouble proving his America's Space Prize vehicle is indepently funded from his CEV vehicle. And he will have an enormous amount of work to do: designing VSS Enterprise for Virgin Galactic, working on the CEV together with t/Space and designing a vehicle for this prize.

After all the "Who wil win the X-Prize" topics, it's time for a "Who will win the America's Space Prize" topic. .

I would expect almost assuredly if anyone wins -- it will be a consortium of several companies working together. My favorite combination is:

SpaceX: For their boosters obviously. They also are building the highest-tech rockets in existence today and have valuable knowledge to contribute to such a project.

Blue Origin -- Bezos has the ability to fund a project like this to completion. This project can *not* depend on outside funding and have a chance of succeeding in the set timeframe. He's apparently also assembled a team with expertise in numerous areas. They will be essential in the design of the spacecraft & integration of its various systems.

Cessna -- They have the experience, equipment and workforce to construct the airframe & pressure vessel. In addition -- they can provide assistance in avionics integration. They also have experience in designing cabin layouts to maximize the use of small volumes and minimize power requirements.

You should put in an option for "nobody" ... I think the time constraint is too short for anyone to have a decent shot at the prize under the current rules.

DKH

I was thinking about doing that but i feared everyone would choose that option. So consider the question to be: If someone wins the America's Space Prize, who will it be?
But i also think if there are a few teams that look like they have got a chance, Bigelow will extend the deadline. If there are no valuable candidates he will simply cancel the prize and look for another way to get his guests to his hotel.

The andrews idea is ceratinly interesting, refining oxygen from the air on the way up. Makes it similar to Bristols idea of inflight refueling. In their video they were talking 40ton payload, but they dont say if this includes the second stage or if its payload to LEO.
I must confess that I have concerns with these big space plane ideas.
1, The only successful large supersonic aircraft were the XB-70, Concorde, Concordski, and the large Russian bomber, which I have forgotten the name of.
All of these projects have one thing in common, they cost heaps to develop, heaps to run, and went well over time to develop. While I accpet that the cost in this area isnt as important as it would be in a commercial airline operation, Im still left wondering whether they are feasable.
2, They state reduced turn around times, and compared to the shuttle, thats probably true, but the turn around time for the Concord was hardly quick.

Assuming that the time table is realistic, which I dont think that it is, I would have to go with Armidilo, mainly because of their method.

I think that Scaled has already got to much to do with the CEV and Virgin's 5 passenger ships to throw their hat in the ring for anything else. They might assist a group but I think that it is unlikely they would make a bid themselves. I suspect that they do not have the level of resources needed to divert to other projects and since they are already commited to Virgin that will take priority.

Of course thats not to say that they wont make a late bid once the virgin contract is complete, if there are enough sinergies with the work they've already done.

My money's on SpaceX, once Elon Mask has demonstrated that the Falcon V is a good launch system someone will step foward to design a manned ship for it, if SpaceX dosent do it themselves that is.

I dont think that Armadillo has the time to finish developement of their x-prize craft and then either scale it up or design a new vehicle before Bigelow's deadline runs out, though they might team with other groups.

_________________A journey of a thousand miles begins with a single step.

Writing my post and voting in the poll it was difficult to make up my mind between SpaceX and Scaled - their chances seem to be very similar.

SpaceX may get to the orbit unmanned next year - under this aspect they will be in the lead then. But they are missing experiences in manned flights - Scaled has these experiences and the Know How required. Concerning synergies I am still thinking about SpaceX.

Some words about Interorbital - they are able to get the lead if they really manage to launch unmanned successfully to the orbit in 2005. But they say to have a budget of 4 million $ only and they are looking for customers - which they hope to get after a first successful orbital launch. It's hard to estimate their chances.

I think the same holds for the ASP. SpaceX's core business is launchers and he stands to change the industry if Falcon V lives up to its billing and they are unlikely to participate in the ASP unless someone pays them to do it (for the booster)

Anyway, I voted for someone else. It seems the pre-requsite for this prize seems to be aleast guranteed funding followed by technical competence. Don't know enough about Blue Origin but they could be the dark horse.

According to the article
"One small step for space tourism Dec 16th 2004, The Economist print edition
If plans for a new range of suborbital vehicles get off the drawing board, then holidays in space could get off the ground" ( http://www.economist.com/science/displa ... id=3500237 ) Burt Rutan "...thinks it would cost around $400m-500m, and 5-7 years, to get a new craft into orbit...".

This may mean that only a consortium can win the ASP unless Musk, Branson or Bigelow himself would do it. But Bigelow is working on space stations and wouldn't start working on vehicles and Musk has said, that he doesn't trust the space travel market.

However Musk may agree to form a consortium with one or more other teams after a several successful launches of the Falcon V - ...

...what do you think?

On the other hand Branson has registered now "... About 13,000 people from around the world ..." according to the article which would mean a total revenue of 2.6 billion $ if all this people would buy a ticket at the end and if he would sell all these tickets at a price of 200,000 $ each. I think, this would be sufficient to get a profit which could finance the costs of 400 million $ to 500 million $ Rutan has been quoted to estimate.

The article too says, that Virgin can get into the profit zone after five years because "... it need fill only 5,000 seats over the first five years ..."

Bad news? Good news? From my point of view a changed look at it only. I wouldn't risk a guess wether Rutan will enter the ASP when he has ready Virgin Galactic's vehicles or wether he will not. Up to now he still is the only one having a working suborbital vehicle.

What about SpaceDev, they are developing their own sub-orbital vehicle as well as a joint one with NASA. Once they have achieved sub-orbital the craft is supposed to be able to be scaled up to orbital flight, they might be in with a shot. Jim Benson has has put a lot of work in with his company, I wouldn't be surprised to see them make a bid for the ASP.

_________________A journey of a thousand miles begins with a single step.