Monday, December 20, 2010

When the Twins held a press conference on Saturday afternoon to officially announce the signing of Japanese infielder Tsuyoshi Nishioka, space was scarce. Patrick Reusse put the frenzy into perspective: "The formal interview room, which was built with the idea of hosting the media crowds for postseason games, was jammed to the point CEO Jim Pohlad took in the event while standing against the far wall."

Yes, the Nishioka era has begun in Minnesota, now that he and the Twins have officially reached agreement on a three-year, $9 million deal (with a $4 million option for 2014). Accounting for the $5.3 million posting fee and $250,000 option buyout, the Twins' commitment to Nishioka essentially amounts to $15 million. That's no chump change, but the team will likely find it a sound investment from a financial standpoint. The addition of a star Japanese player -- the first in franchise history -- will help build excitement among the fan base while greatly increasing the Twins' international appeal.

The more important question for hardcore fans is whether the team will find Nishioka's three-year contract a sound investment from a competitive standpoint.

I hope they do. I hope Nishioka can present an exciting new dynamic for the Twins' lineup, adding himself to a select list of successful transitions from Nippon Professional Baseball (NPB) to the major leagues. I hope he becomes an asset at the plate and in the field, and a fan favorite. I hope that by the time he's eligible for free agency in three years, he's a hot commodity.

But hopes are different from expectations. And I'd be lying if I said I expected any of that. There's just too much evidence leading me in the other direction.

Nishioka catapulted himself to a new level of stardom by winning the Pacific League batting title last year, hitting .346/.423/.482 with 11 home runs, 59 RBI and 22 stolen bases as a 25-year-old. He is also a five-time All-Star and three-time Gold Glover. These numbers have been widely touted by folks trying to stir up excitement over his acquisition, but they overlook an important fact: the level of play in NPB is roughly equivalent to Triple-A, and it's possible that even that's being generous.

As an example, consider the case of Matt Murton. You might remember his name; he was a rather unexceptional big-league outfielder who scraped together a .286/.352/.436 career line while spending time with the Cubs, Athletics and Rockies -- mostly as a backup. Prior to the 2010 season, he signed a contract with the Hanshin Tigers of NPB and in his first year there he hit .349/.395/.499 with 17 home runs and 91 RBI over 144 games. As a major-leaguer, Murton had managed just 29 home runs and 112 RBI in 346 games.

If Nishioka can approximate Murton's big-league production while adding strong defense, he'd be a great get. But Nishioka's 2010 season stands as an outlier in an otherwise unspectacular NPB career. In the three years prior, he'd amassed a .287/.361/.427 line; while those numbers aren't bad, no one would get excited about seeing them from a Triple-A player. It is possible that Nishioka, who's just entering his prime years, turned a corner this past summer, but his production was largely fueled by his high batting average, which itself was propped up by an unsustainable .389 batting average on balls in play. Before 2010, he was a .284 career hitter.

Unless Nishioka carries over his great luck from this past year or makes meaningful improvements at the plate, his realistic upside is probably league-average offensive production (last year, for second basemen, that equated to .265/.330/.389). That kind of performance would be worth the price tag if it's coupled with above-average defense. But what to expect from Nishioka defensively is anyone's guess.

The fact that he's won three Japanese Gold Gloves, two of them at shortstop, should be taken with a grain of salt. Kaz Matsui won four NPB Gold Gloves, all at shortstop, but his defense at the position was considered so dreadful in the States that he was moved to second after one season. As another example, Akinori Iwamura won six Gold Gloves in Japan and was considered an ordinary fielder here.

Of course, the fact that neither of those players excelled defensively in the majors doesn't mean Nishioka can't. The Twins have always placed considerable value on infield defense, and likely wouldn't have made this bold move if their scouts didn't think he was capable. It's just important to keep in mind that, historically, great defensive reputations have not often carried over from NPB to MLB.

It's easy to get caught up in the Nishioka hype. He adds a unique new aspect to the franchise, he fills up press conferences and he's starred in an Adidas "Impossible is Nothing" ad. But among all that glitz and glamor, there's also the viewpoint of former MLB and NPB pitcher C.J. Nitkowski, who reacted to the lucrative signing by remarking that "AAA & AAAA middle infielders are wishing they were Japanese imports." (In other words, stating that Nishioka's talent level is really no different from an American player who stands out at Triple-A but isn't quite fit to be a regular in the major leagues.)

I want Nitkowski to be wrong. My hopes for Nishioka are set high. But my expectations are set considerably lower, to the point that he'd exceed them by turning into a league-average MLB middle-infielder.

Those expectations aren't very exciting, I suppose. But hey, that's what hope is for.

40 comments:

Let the Yoshi Nishi era begin! (Sorry just had to get that out of my system). Nick, I agree with your main point about not getting too excited about Nishi's Nippon League numbers, but we thought the same thing about Valencia for the past several years too. The point is that AAA or AAAA numbers rarely translate to AL/NL numbers as precisely as we'd like. I think the main thing the Twins wanted is to dump some payroll and create some stability in the middle of their infield for at least 2-3 years by focusing on 2 guys in their middle twenties. Hopefully they now have some speed, decent defense, and at least MLB replacement level offensive production. Based on recent history, this is a big improvement.DR

The money is insanely low in this case, so what is there to lose? I know its hard to think of this as a zero risk moderate reward situation in light of Hardy leaving, but it really is. If Nishi dissapoints, he has a 3 mil salary to ship. or eat. Not a tall order. In the meantime lets sell some twins gear in Japan, I want a hundred businessmen singing kereoke under the TC logo. And when the next Ichiro comes along lets hope the Twins have laid some track and stand a chance to post the winning fee.

As I said in the article, this is very likely to be a financial win for the team. But quality MLB shortstops are tough to come by; the Twins let one go already this offseason and it's not clear there's another one on the roster or in the organization. I'm less interested in seeing the club line its pockets these days.

I don't look at Nishi as a way to line their pockets, as the deal is frontloaded. It is a high risk proposition for the Twins financially as they will end up paying 8 mil for one season should they decide to cut after a season. I do look at it as a gamble capable of resulting in trade bait or a cheap option for the next couple years. Even in the worst case scenario, we just bought the equivilent of a draft pick, as Nishi will almost certainly be worth as much on the trade market next year.

This season should not be about gambling on modest payoffs or cheap options a couple years down the road. It should be about focusing on a deep playoff run while this core group of expensive, talented players is together and capable of performing at a high level.

That's some pretty fuzzy math to compare him to a completely different player and use that player as some sort of conversion factor. It's a sample size of 1, and again, it's a completely different kind of player.

It's also funny to see all the bloggers all cynical about the Japanese gold glove award equivalent. Because MLBs gold glove award means something?

All these attempts at killing buzzes... just wait until you see him play! Then if he sucks, by all means link back to these blog posts and tell us how you knew it all along.

I agree that this post is nothing really new. Anon, you were a bit rude. Nick is a commentator and has a right to blowficate his opinion, even if it has been pretty consistently overly negative recently.

Nick, some of us see a big upside for Nishi. Ichiro made the jump with no real drop off and he was huge for Seattle. He is the face of the franchise now. Like Ichiro, Nishi is a 200 hit per year guy from Japan and a batting title winner is a pretty good credential to have. He may surprise. If not, he is still probably a solid middle infielder. Could be worse. We coulda ended up with a better SS that is on the DL allatime.

Nishi will add enthusiasm in Japan for the Twins. They will sell merchandise there and get Japanese visitors to come to Twins games. That will more than pay for his contract. Ichoiro brought millions to Seattle. #51 uniforms are everywhere.

Thing is, Twins have Trevor and Alexi. May as well see if they can do it for a whole year. Alexi played well the second half last year. We also have a for sure by gosh SS in development who is a year or two away.

I don't get all the love for Hardy. He was not a long time Twin. He was a rent a player.I think more than anything it was the front office doing business without a 'by your leave" from the fans that bothers so many. So what? They do that every year. Hardy is not someone that I get all bothered about their moving.

The Twins are going to be fine. Justin back for a whole season already is an improvement over last year. And we have 5 proven starters on the staff and Gibson is likely going to start the season with the big club. Slowey was 10-2 before he hurt his wrist a couple years back, Duenslinger is solid. Frankie is nails and Baker and Blackie just need to keep the ball down more in the 5th and 6th innings.

The pen will be ok. We don't need to use five pitchers like Gardy was doing last year. He needs to learn to let a guy throw a couple innings every other day. Use guys in a proper spot, not just rely on the conventional wisdom thing. For example, if Capps owns a hitter and there are bases loaded in the 7th, use him then. Win the game then. Stop the mindless drive to add saves to the closer's stats just to make it look like we have a good bullpen.

I agree that this post is nothing really new. Anon, you were a bit rude. Nick is a commentator and has a right to blowficate his opinion, even if it has been pretty consistently overly negative recently.

Nick, some of us see a big upside for Nishi. Ichiro made the jump with no real drop off and he was huge for Seattle. He is the face of the franchise now. Like Ichiro, Nishi is a 200 hit per year guy from Japan and a batting title winner is a pretty good credential to have. He may surprise. If not, he is still probably a solid middle infielder. Could be worse. We coulda ended up with a better SS that is on the DL allatime.

Nishi will add enthusiasm in Japan for the Twins. They will sell merchandise there and get Japanese visitors to come to Twins games. That will more than pay for his contract. Ichoiro brought millions to Seattle. #51 uniforms are everywhere.

Thing is, Twins have Trevor and Alexi. May as well see if they can do it for a whole year. Alexi played well the second half last year. We also have a for sure by gosh SS in development who is a year or two away.

I don't get all the love for Hardy. He was not a long time Twin. He was a rent a player.I think more than anything it was the front office doing business without a 'by your leave" from the fans that bothers so many. So what? They do that every year. Hardy is not someone that I get all bothered about their moving.

The Twins are going to be fine. Justin back for a whole season already is an improvement over last year. And we have 5 proven starters on the staff and Gibson is likely going to start the season with the big club. Slowey was 10-2 before he hurt his wrist a couple years back, Duenslinger is solid. Frankie is nails and Baker and Blackie just need to keep the ball down more in the 5th and 6th innings.

The pen will be ok. We don't need to use five pitchers like Gardy was doing last year. He needs to learn to let a guy throw a couple innings every other day. Use guys in a proper spot, not just rely on the conventional wisdom thing. For example, if Capps owns a hitter and there are bases loaded in the 7th, use him then. Win the game then. Stop the mindless drive to add saves to the closer's stats just to make it look like we have a good bullpen.

"We also have a for sure by gosh SS in development who is a year or two away."

I dont really know what this means but if you are trying to say the twins have a good ss prospect a year or 2 away youre very wrong. Plouffe is probably the best SS prospect we have and hes not a very good prospect. The twins have almost 0 organizational middle infielder depth. They do a horrible job drafting middle infielders they do a horrible job developing middle infielders.

Let's wait till we see him play before passing judgement. Much as we want to lean on statistical and likeness projections, every player is different, and no one here commenting or blogging has actually seen him play yet. Perhaps he took a noticeably different plate approach in NPB last year and that resulted in the batting title, who knows? None of us do, that's for sure.MLB Gold Gloves usually go to a guy who produced on offense, even if he's not the best "pure" fielder. RGG is a token MLB award, so saying "he won one in Japan is meaningless" is upiquitous with MLB GGs. Meaningless.Hardy is gone, salary dumped, let's get over it, shall we? This "core" group of expensive players need more pitching, anyway.

I'm cautiously optimistic about Nishioka's performance over here. I believe the Gold Glove awards in Japan is even more based on offensive production and reputation than over here in the US, so the fact that Nishioka won a few over there might actually be legit since he didn't really have much offensive production to fall back on to "win" gold gloves in Japan until this past year. I remember seeing Nishioka in the World Baseball Classic and was pretty sure he made the team on defensive merits.

He also is not a homerun masher in Japan like Kaz Matsui, Iguchi, and Iwamura (all 3 were 30+ HR guys in NPB), so perhaps his game would translate better. But I guess it's anyone's guess how he will actually do offensively.

Personally speaking, I would be happy if he can produce a .280/.360/.400 line while playing good solid defense for the Twins.

Thanks Nick! You put into words some of my increasing concern with this off-season and the Twins "hoping" things will go well. We "hope" Nishioka and Casilla will be strong up the middle. We "hope" we can witstand the loss of over 1/2 our bullpen. We "hope" that speed will be sucessful at Target Field. Let's hope at least one of the above works.

Wow, lotta delusional people commenting here. Listen...it's a stat called BABIP, learn it, know it, use it. Whether or not you believe that stats ability to predict things, it is undeniable that it is an indicator of luck and both Valencia and Nishioka had career years in terms of luck (high BABIPs). I don't think Nick's trying to be a buzzkill, I think he's trying to be realistic and to be honest, I'd rather knows what's realistic than wonder why Yoshi struggles in his 1st season in the Majors.

First of all, I don't know where people are getting the impression that I'm "passing judgment" on Nishioka. I can't claim to know what kind of player he'll turn out to be, and I'm as hopeful as anyone that he can be a strong contributor. There's just no way I can objectively expect that. The sample size of NPB players coming over to the majors is relatively small, but the fact is that there have been far more disappointments than success stories.

Nishioka is a lesser player than most of the stars who've come over from Japan, and that's reflected not only in his career NPB stats but also in his signing bonus and contract.

Like Ichiro, Nishi is a 200 hit per year guy from Japan and a batting title winner is a pretty good credential to have

That's sort of a misleading statement. This was Nishioka's first 200-hit season ever, and as I noted in the post it was aided by an extraordinarily high BABIP. It's essentially guaranteed that his BABIP will drop sharply in MLB, where the pitchers and fielders are considerably better. Given that he lacks exceptional patience or power, what are we left with when the batting average inevitably drops off? Ichiro comparisons don't work -- he was a .353 hitter in Japan, not a .290 hitter like Yoshi.

He also is not a homerun masher in Japan like Kaz Matsui, Iguchi, and Iwamura (all 3 were 30+ HR guys in NPB), so perhaps his game would translate better.

How do you figure that would be true? Honest question. The players you mentioned went from having outstanding power in Japan to modest power here, so it's a good bet that Nishioka will go from modest power to almost no power. What we're left with is a slap hitter with good but not great speed and decent plate discipline. There's a lot more downside than upside with a player like that, in my mind.

Thing is, Twins have Trevor and Alexi. May as well see if they can do it for a whole year. Alexi played well the second half last year.

Casilla has never been able to hold a starting job and Plouffe is a marginal prospect. When Hardy was Plouffe's age he was an elite MLB shortstop. You can argue that Hardy is too "injury-prone," but when it comes to pure talent there's no comparison.

And we have 5 proven starters on the staff and Gibson is likely going to start the season with the big club.

One of those "proven starters" is Blackburn, who was a disaster for most of last season. One is Duensing, who has never pitched in an MLB rotation for a full year.

Look, a lot of people are combating my "overly negative" spin by pointing to what could happen in the best case scenario and over-inflating the value of players currently on the roster. Yes, if Casilla finally pulls it together for a full season, and Nishioka performs on the high end of our expectations, and Valencia repeats (more or less) his surprising rookie production, and the five starters (who between them have a total of two 200-IP seasons in the majors) find a way to stay healthy all year, the Twins could be fine. But all those things are not going to happen. Look at all the injuries and bad performances from last year. Right now they don't have the depth to sustain half that much attrition.

Hope is good. I'm hopeful. But realistically, from my perspective, the Twins are not in particularly good shape right now. Don't shoot the messenger.

I read a poster somewhere asking why the Twins look to Edgar Renteria. I think that makes a slot of sense. If the Giant $1M offer to Renteria was offensive, maybe he'd come to MN for $1.5M. If we think that Nishioka is a second baseman, anyway, then Casilla becomes the backup to both. That sounds better than our current situation.

What we're left with is a slap hitter with good but not great speed and decent plate discipline.Were Hardy or Hudson much different than that, offensively (I admit that Hardy provided most of the little bit of "pop" from the SS position last year for the Twins, though, but that was still miniscule)? No. Hudson showed some patience until the end of the year, and Hardy's swing isn't going to produce 20 HRs again. As for Hardy's patience? What patience?It's defense that's the worry. His NPB GG was every bit as meaningless to MLB as MLB GGs are/were to player's value as a defender; reputation alone pretty much does it for you, along with a good year at the plate - as long as you don't emabarass yourself in the field.

If we're going to lean on BABIP here, than the improvement in Liriano's should offset the return to the mean of Nishi's.

Anyone know how to look up Nishi's UZR in NPB? I can't find out how...

Nick, I think you need to change the name of your blog to "Nick's Pessimism Rant"

And you are being disingenuous (look it up). You named your article "Hope v Expectations" so when you write this:

"First of all, I don't know where people are getting the impression that I'm "passing judgment" on Nishioka. I can't claim to know what kind of player he'll turn out to be, and I'm as hopeful as anyone that he can be a strong contributor."

After naming your article that way, you go on and do exactly what you say you aren't... pass judgment. And you do so when the kid hasn't played a single game yet. You deserve to be called out.

And say what you want, batters that get 200 hits are rare....in any league... and he did it in fewer than 162 games. As a spray line drive hitter, his numbers will translate better than if he were a slugger. He makes contact. That is in style everywhere and in every league.

But you are unfair in other ways. You choose the comparisons you want, even if absurd, then criticize those who do the same thing.

There are fewer than three dozen GM jobs in pro baseball. The FO has delivered several AL Central Championships in the past decade. 5 out of 6 years I think. I'd say they know what they are doing.

Do you think you are one of the 32 best at what you do in the country?

"As a spray line drive hitter, his numbers will translate better than if he were a slugger."

Im not sure why people are so quick to make this argument. He wont lose any power because he never had any? Kaz matsui had a good batting average and obp in japan to go with power and he fell off across the board. I would much rather nishi have power to lose, and just because he doesnt have power is not a strong argument that his BA isnt going to drop.

"Do you think you are one of the 32 best at what you do in the country? "

This is an awfully presumptuous standard. First there are way more than 32 gm in professional baseball, there are 32 mlb gms. Most of the strength in your argument lies in the pool size. I dont know what nick does but 1000's others do the same thing. So to be in the top 32 would be unbelievable. Bill smith could be the worst mlb gm and still be in the top 32 of his field while nick could be better than 90% of his profession and not be in the top 1000.

Nick, lighten up buddy. First you write a pessimistic post and second you get defensive in the comments.

Now that that's off my chest...

Predicting the production of NPB players is like brewing your own beer. You never know exactly what it is going to taste like till you've let it age properly. Even then, the flavor continues to change over time.

Essentially the only thing we have come up with is that Yoshi might be awesome, he might suck, or he might be somewhere in between.

That being said, I like predicting the taste of beers when I brew. Thus, I think Yoshi has a good chance to be successful at the MLB level as a defender and offender.

As a defender, scouts have reported that he has incredible range. He also lead the league for his position last year in put outs and assists. These are rudimentary stats, but they show that he makes a lot of plays, perhaps because of his great range. He was also clocked throwing the ball at 88 several years ago. That seems sufficient for a shortstop or second baseman.

As a hitter, Yoshi isn't going to have much power. But, that could translate well to the majors. Iwamura, Kaz largely lost their hitting ability in the U.S. due to their swing for the fences/upper-cut swing types. This approach works in the NPB as can be seen with Murton's recent success. Yoshi has never been one to swing for the fences though. He has relied on hitting for the gaps and legging it out. That sounds like a pretty good strategy for someone without power in a Japanese power depressing league.

In the end, you'll probably be right, and Yoshi will probably suck balls. But I prefer to be optimistic and excited about adding an instant Japanese star to our team. It is a lot more enjoyable to be critical of the other teams and optimistic about our own.

This came off a Mets blog from November. "NPB scouts believe that he has extraordinarily quick reflexes, and possesses the best range of all NPB shortstops in the game currently."

You are correct that they didn't say "incredible range." I was going from memory. However, I will accept as fact what you say about Yoshi's toes. I know from experience that extra toes provide improved lateral quickness. Nice work!

Good article Nick. I must say that almost everyone who has posted comments though has been really negative. I liked what Mike had to say and decided to do some research into the Japanese imported infielders.

There have been only 5 infielders that have come over from the NPB: Kazuo Matsui, Tadahito Iguchi, Norihiro Nakamura, Akinori Iwamura, and the Twins' recent acquisition, Tsuyoshi Nishioka.

Kazuo Matsui had a career range factor per game of 4.5 in Japan and 4.7 in the Majors.

I don't care how Norihiro Nakamura did in japan or here because he only played about 12 innings in the Majors. Thus, he is not useful for comparing Yoshi.

All right, finding defensive statistics for the NPB is a huge pain in the a$$. I couldn't find anything for Akinori Iwamura either.

Yoshi posted a range factor per game of 4.75 as a SS in 2007.

I was hoping to be able to look at the defensive numbers of the other players and compare their Japanese numbers to their American numbers and then apply the general trend to Yoshi's Japanese numbers.

That didn't work so well though. What we can extrapolate though is that only 4 Japanese infielders have come before Yoshi. This is such a ridiculously small sample size that comparing Yoshi to them just seems dumb.

"Those who said Liriano is/was an "ace" but "unlucky" can feast on that. Thanks for taking the bait, whoever you are..."

People who call Lirano an ace are more likely seeing that hes 5th in the league in k/9, 11th in gb% and 36 % in bb/9 and that combination make him a top 5 pitcher in baseball. The people that are looking at his 340 babip, which was the 3rd highest, are probably looking for a reasonable explanation for why his very good era didnt quite match hes elite peripherals.

How do you figure that would be true? Honest question. The players you mentioned went from having outstanding power in Japan to modest power here, so it's a good bet that Nishioka will go from modest power to almost no power. What we're left with is a slap hitter with good but not great speed and decent plate discipline. There's a lot more downside than upside with a player like that, in my mind.

You've conveniently left off my last sentence which said it was anyone's guess how he will actually do in the US.

However, in my mind, Nishioka was a slap hitter in Japan, and will be a slap hitter in the US, so I'm thinking his slap hitting approach would translate better to the US compared to someone who was a power hitter in Japan but doesn't have enough strength to hit homers in the US. When I look at Nishioka, I'm throwing out his 2010 season (because it was a career year) and hoping that he can be close to his previous NPB seasons while playing sound defense. If he can do that, I think he'll be fine. I'm not expecting him to be a star in the US.

When I look at Nishioka, I'm throwing out his 2010 season (because it was a career year) and hoping that he can be close to his previous NPB seasons while playing sound defense. If he can do that, I think he'll be fine. I'm not expecting him to be a star in the US.

But surely you'll concede that, whatever type of hitter he is, his numbers are likely to decline from the transition to a vastly more talented league. Pitchers here are much better, so he'll probably put the ball in play less often, and fielders are much better, so balls in play will be converted to outs more frequently.

But surely you'll concede that, whatever type of hitter he is, his numbers are likely to decline from the transition to a vastly more talented league. Pitchers here are much better, so he'll probably put the ball in play less often, and fielders are much better, so balls in play will be converted to outs more frequently.

Of course. I do not have any delusions about him surpassing his NPB stats (I think I mentioned I'd be happy with a .280/.360/.400 line from Nishioka with the Twins). I just think he has a little better chance than most other Japanese position players who have came over to MLB to come close to his NPB output due to the type of player he was in Japan.

I've thought about this a little bit and to me the NPB position players who have had to alter their games the least when moving over to the US has been Ichiro and So Taguchi. These guys were slap hitters in Japan (yes, Ichiro did hit 25 HRs in NPB once, but he was not the slugger the other guys who came over were), and they remained slap hitters here, and they resembled their NPB selves a lot more than the likes of the Matuis (Kaz & Hideki), Iwamura, Iguchi, & Fukudome. The last 5 guys I mentioned were all big sluggers in Japan, with Hideki Matsui being one of the most powerful Japanese who ever played in NBP. I think they had to make a lot more adjustments to their hitting style than Ichiro and Taguchi because they couldn't do the same things here they did over there. Yes, it's an extremely small sample size, but I'm inclined to think that NPB slap hitters translate better to MLB than power hitters.

Anyway, I'm hopeful that Nishioka will workout as a contributor for the Twins.

"I think I mentioned I'd be happy with a .280/.360/.400 line from Nishioka with the Twins)"

This line would make him a well above average player and is pretty unlikely. Id say this is much closer to best case scenario than it is to likely. The iso's you listed would be right in line with 2009 denard span. You've got him slightly increasing his isoD and retaining 2/3 of his japan isop, which is more than Ichiro was able to maintain.

We know nothing about his defense but based on the track record of past middle infield transplants there is no reason to believe it will be good. And while his style may "translate" better than a power hitters, his style will require him to bat 330 to be a star which isnt going to happen. Its nice to imagine hell be an 800 ops guy with awesome range at a premium position but i think theres a lot of reason to believe he might not be a lot better than matt tolbert.

Stop stalling Twins. Sign Carl and Jim and get er done right away. Carl wantd to come back and deserves $10 mil next year. Give him an easy to make incentive like if he wins 15 and throws 200 innings then he gets the same contract for the next year plus a mil. Then give an option for the third year if he meets the same incentives.But make the plus 2 mil. On Jim, just ask the big guy what he thinks is fair. Then give it to him.