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Japan's Abe using North Korea's threats to boost election chances

Pyongyang's recent nuclear test and missile launches over Japan have made the public nervous. With an election expected to be announced in October, they are rallying round a leader who is seen to be tough on Pyongyang.

Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe is expected to make an announcement on Monday calling for a snap general election and several factors are behind his decision.

While the national economy is growing steadily and the public is broadly content, it also helps that the opposition parties are in disarray without meaningful rival policies and are weakened by defections and realignments.

And after a scandal tanked his approval rating earlier this year, Abe must be delighted to see his government's support rate climb back above 50 percent in recent public opinion polls. This is partly thanks to the belligerent rhetoric and frequent demonstrations of military might by the North Korean regime.

Well-known for his hawkish tendencies, Abe's firm demands that the international community unite in opposition to North Korean aggression has played well with a domestic audience that has put up for decades with nuclear tests, missile launches and the abduction of Japanese nationals.

Given the clear technological advances that North Korea's weapons scientists have made in recent months, the Japanese public is becoming increasingly jittery.

Seizing Japan's jitters

Abe's approval rate hovered around 26 percent in July 2017

Now Abe can take advantage of Japanese public fear to win a further extension to his 1,728-day-old Liberal Democratic Party administration, the longest-lived Japanese government since the 1960s.

"We have seen this rally-round-the-flag tendency in the past in times of crisis, which is the position that Japan is in with North Korea right now," Jeff Kingston, director of Asian Studies at the Japan campus of Temple University, told DW.

Kingston added that the recent test of what is generally agreed to have been a thermonuclear device, combined with the launch of two missiles intermediate-range ballistic missiles "have enabled Abe to make his case to the voters and he will be hoping that his proposals on revising the Constitution will make sense to them now."

Abe has made it clear that he believes it is time that Japan needs to alter Article 9 of the Constitution, which stipulates that the Japanese people "forever renounce war" and that "land, sea and air forces, as well as other war potential, will never be maintained."

And while rewriting the Constitution might be a tall political order - the Japanese public is very attached to Article 9 - there is no doubt that Kim Jong Un's threats have them coming round to Abe's attitude of fighting fire with fire.

North Korea fired two missiles over Japanese territory in September 2017 alone

'The threat is real'

"With blanket media coverage of the nuclear test and missile launches, there is a genuine sense among the public here that the threat is real," said Kingston. "And with the opposition lacking a credible alternative for dealing with Pyongyang, the LDP has a lock on security issues," he added.

"It's fair to say that Kim Jong Un has put the wind in Abe's electoral sails this time around."

Analysts point out that Abe's recovery is particularly impressive given that his support rate had fallen as low as 26 percent in late July as he struggled to throw off suggestions that he had used his influence to assist two acquaintances win approval from the education ministry for two separate projects.

There were even suggestions that the prime minister was fighting for his political life.

Stephen Nagy, a senior associate professor of international relations at Tokyo's International Christian University, believes Abe has "played the North Korea card quite astutely."

"He has demonstrated strong leadership in dealing with North Korea to the Japanese people and emphasized the security relationship with the United States," Nagy told DW..

"And Donald Trump has reciprocated, even mentioning in this week's United Nations speech the Japanese nationals who have been abducted by the North Koreans," he added. "That is a very emotional issue to the Japanese and will have played well here."

ICBM threat and North Korea's overall military strength

Major achievement

In early June 2017, North Korea test-launched an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) for the first time. Testing an ICBM marked a major military achievement for Pyongyang and a serious escalation of tensions with the United States and its allies in the region, particularly South Korea and Japan.

ICBM threat and North Korea's overall military strength

Trouble with warheads

At the time, defense experts said the ICBM could reach as far as the US states of Alaska and Hawaii. However, it was unclear if North Korea can field an ICBM capable of carrying a nuclear warhead on its cone that could survive reentry into the Earth's atmosphere. North Korean state media claimed the ICBM was capable of carrying a "large, heavy nuclear warhead" to any part of the United States.

ICBM threat and North Korea's overall military strength

Pyongyang's nuclear tests - six times and counting

The ICBM is believed to be a step forward in the North's nuclear program. Despite pressure from the international community, Pyongyang has made no secret of its nuclear ambitions. Alongside its ritual ballistic missile tests, North Korea has conducted nuclear tests on at least six occasions, including one in September 2017.

ICBM threat and North Korea's overall military strength

US running out of patience?

Responding to the first ICBM test with a show of force, the US and South Korean troops on conducted "deep strike" precision missile drills using Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS) and the Republic of Korea's Hyunmoo Missile II. In April, the US sent its Carl Vinson aircraft carrier towards the Korean Peninsula, saying it was taking prudent measures against the North.

ICBM threat and North Korea's overall military strength

Testing the boundaries

Ignoring international condemnation, Pyongyang test-launched another rocket on July 28, 2017, just weeks after its first ICBM test. In both of the tests, North Korea used Hwasong-14 missile, but the second one reached a higher altitude and traveled a larger distance than the first one, according to the state media.

ICBM threat and North Korea's overall military strength

Whole of US within range?

Pyongyang conducted its third test November 29, using a newly developed Hwasong-15 missile. US, Japanese and South Korean officials said it rose to about 4,500 km (2,800 miles) and flew 960 kilometers (600 miles) over about 50 minutes before landing in Japan's exclusive economic zone off the country's coast.

ICBM threat and North Korea's overall military strength

One of the world's largest militaries

Apart from a developing missile and nuclear program, North Korea has a powerful army with 700,000 active troops and another 4.5 million in the reserves. It can call upon almost a quarter of its population to serve in the army at any given time. The North's bloated army is believed to outnumber its southern neighbor's by two-to-one.

ICBM threat and North Korea's overall military strength

Vast capabilities

According to the 2017 Global Firepower Index, the North has, as part of a far-reaching arsenal, 458 fighter aircraft, 5,025 combat tanks, 76 submarines, and 5,200,000 total military personnel. The picture above from 2013 shows leader Kim Jong Un ordering strategic rocket forces to be on standby to strike US and South Korean targets at any time.

ICBM threat and North Korea's overall military strength

Enemies all around

Alongside the United States, Pyongyang views its neighbors South Korea and Japan as its two other main enemies. North Korea has used US military exercises in the region as means of galvanizing its people, claiming that the exercises are dress rehearsals for an impending invasion.

ICBM threat and North Korea's overall military strength

Huge, colorful demonstrations of military might

Every year, hundreds of thousands of soldiers and citizens roll through the streets of the capital Pyongyang to take part in the North's military parades. Preparations for the rallies often begin months in advance, and the parades usually mark important anniversaries linked with the Communist Party or Kim Jong Un's family.

European support

"Abe has also won support on North Korea from the European Union, which has recently stepped up its sanctions, so he is coming across in a very positive way," Nagy said.

At the same time, Abe has resisted the temptation to both be inflammatory in his responses to the actions of the regime in Pyongyang and not attempted to intercept North Korea's missiles, even when they were flying over Japanese territory.

"That is steady leadership and plays well with the voters, but also with other international partners in the region," Nagy added.

The Defense Ministry in early September filed a budget request of a record 5.26 trillion Yen (39.33 billion euros) for 2018. The request is an increase of 2.5 percent on last year's defense budget and includes outlays on a new missile shield system to enhance existing defenses.

It is unlikely that Abe's government will call on the ministry to pare back its spending, at least until the threat posed by North Korea can be neutralized.