The following correction was printed in the Observer's For the record column, Sunday September 28 2008

The article below listed Dorset police among forces reporting increases in burglary in the past year across England and Wales. We should clarify that between 1 April and 31 July 2008, burglaries in Dorset fell by 10.7 per cent, a 10-year low for such crime, with some 65 fewer victims; a reduction of 7 per cent overall has been achieved.

Predictions by the government that deteriorating economic conditions will send crime rates spiralling are borne out by an Observer analysis of official police figures which reveals a significant increase in burglaries across England and Wales. In many cases, the percentage rise was in double digits and in most it was more than 5 per cent.

The figures suggest that years of falling crime may be coming to an end. For more than a decade the number of recorded thefts from homes has been on the way down, partly because the plunging value of household goods such as DVD players and stereos has made burglary less lucrative.

Evidence that property crime is on the increase raises the spectre of further bad news for the government as it attempts to revive its flagging fortunes in the polls. Last night opposition politicians were making the link between rising crime and Labour's handling of the economy. 'Labour were quick to claim the credit for the economic boom, but are now trying to dodge the blame for the downturn and its effects on crime,' said the Liberal Democrat home affairs spokesman, Chris Huhne.

The Observer analysis shows that 19 out of 31 police forces surveyed experienced rises in burglaries over the past year. The Thames Valley force recorded 1,021 burglaries in July compared with 804 in the same month last year, an increase of more than 21 per cent. In Leicestershire, there were 22 per cent more burglaries recorded in July this year compared with the same month in 2007. There were also double-digit increases in Lincolnshire, Suffolk, Warwickshire and North Wales.

Other forces which reported increases include the Metropolitan Police, Dorset, Avon and Somerset, Essex and Staffordshire. Hertfordshire, which publishes its crime figures over three-month periods, had a 23 per cent rise in burglaries between April and July this year compared with the same period last year. The West Mercia and Devon and Cornwall forces recorded near 7 per cent increases between the same periods.

The findings come after the Home Secretary, Jacqui Smith, warned last month that crime levels will increase amid the economic downturn. A leaked draft of a letter to Downing Street from Smith suggested there will be 'significant upward pressure on acquisitive crime [theft, burglary, robbery] during a downturn'.

It said that if the economic slowdown was on a similar scale to the last recession, property crime would be likely to rise by 7 per cent this year and a further 2 per cent in 2009. Smith's letter warned that the economic climate could boost support for 'far-right extremism and racism'. It also suggested there would be an increase in public hostility to migrants as the job market tightens.

The Observer's analysis suggests the increases predicted by Smith may be on the conservative side for some forces. There have been concerns that burglaries are given a low priority as police look to hit government clean-up targets. They are often considered too great a drain on resources to justify investigation, according to rank-and-file officers.

A Home Office spokesman said the number of domestic burglaries was down 59 per cent since 1995, according to the latest British Crime Survey, which reports on an annual basis.