Analysis: Ethiopia dragged reluctantly back into Somalia

(Reuters) – Ethiopia is being sucked back into Somalia to open another front against Islamist rebels battling Kenyan forces but even a military victory is unlikely to end two decades of anarchy unless the country’s feuding politicians and clans want peace.

An Ethiopian government official acknowledged for the first time on Friday that a small force had already rolled across the border and was carrying out reconnaissance missions ahead of a full deployment that would last “weeks.

“We are looking at a brief period of time, weeks. We don’t want our deployment to be used for propaganda by the extremists,” the official told Reuters, declining to be named.

“The aim is to support (Somalia’s) Transitional Federal Government troops and their allies to expand their control in the south of Somalia and pull back,” he added.

Head of the regional IGAD bloc, Mahboub Maalim, said Ethiopia had promised to “assist in the peace and stabilization activities” ongoing in Somalia.

Kenya has leaned heavily on Ethiopia to send a force to join the assault against the al Qaeda-linked al Shabaab rebels.

Ethiopian troops are unlikely to stray far this time, aware their last intervention in 2006-2009 to flush out another Islamist group was a rallying call for the militants, who portrayed Ethiopia as Christian invaders in a Muslim country.

Kenya too has stressed it will leave Somalia once it has dismantled al Shabaab’s network and seized strongholds that provide the insurgents a financial lifeline, potentially leaving a void for former warlords to step into.

Somalia is a hotspot in the global war against militant Islam. But in the two decades since warlords and then Islamist insurgents reduced its government to impotence, a string of foreign forces, including American, have failed to bring order.

“The Ethiopians can be none too happy with the state of affairs,” said J. Peter Pham, Africa director with U.S. think-tank the Atlantic Council.

“The Kenyans, having foolishly charged in with apparently little thought as to realistic strategic objectives… are now bogged down and need an additional front opened against al Shabaab to relieve the pressure on themselves,” he said.

Kenyan forces crossed into Somalia nearly six weeks ago in an incursion designed to dismantle the militants’ network.

While they initially advanced smoothly on rebel strongholds in southern Somalia, the Kenyan campaign has stalled as al Shabaab fighters melt into the population, while heavy rains and muddy terrain swamp its forces.

ONCE BITTEN, TWICE SHY

Ethiopia is reviled across much of Somalia.

With tacit U.S. backing, and at the invitation of the beleaguered Somali government, Ethiopia blitzed its way through Somalia in late 2006 and 2007 to rout another Somali Islamist administration from de facto power.

Washington said the Islamic Courts Union (ICU) had ties to al Qaeda. It now backs a government led by a former ICU boss.

Al Shabaab rose from the broken ICU, its ranks swollen by a deep resentment at the perception of Ethiopia as a Christian invader in a Muslim country.

“The Ethiopians understand all too well that their presence, as a Christian nation, in Somalia could be propaganda for al Shabaab,” said an African Union official in Addis Ababa.

“They’re not going to repeat that mistake twice,” the official said on condition of anonymity. “They will back up ASWJ, equip them, train them and not stray too far,” referring to the pro-Mogadishu Sufi militia group, Ahlu Sunna Waljamaca, which is also closely allied to Ethiopia.

A second AU official said Ethiopian troops might push as deep as Baidoa, about 250 km (155 miles) northwest of Mogadishu with an airport, to stretch rebel lines and cut off some supply routes.