Politics Counts: Who Benefits If Gingrich Drops Out?

The results from Tuesday’s Mississippi and Alabama primaries were not even fully tabulated when attention turned to former House Speaker Newt Gingrich.

The results, second-place in both states, were a blow to Mr. Gingrich, who had argued his path to the nomination led through the South. But in his concession speech, the candidate quickly tamped down any speculation about his exiting the race and pledged, again, to fight on to the Republican convention in Tampa.

Still, vows to fight on aside, Mr. Gingrich’s struggles raise questions about his role in the race going forward and about what would happen if he dropped out – or simply fell into irrelevance. Many assume that former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum would gain the most, by giving conservative voters one only option at the ballot box, and former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney would face a stiff new challenge. Mr. Santorum clearly feels that way and this week said he’s earned the right to a head-to-head matchup with Mr. Romney.

The reality might be a bit more complicated.

The most recent Wall Street Journal/NBC poll found the dynamics of the national race would not change dramatically if it were a simple Romney-Santorum showdown. With the four current candidates in the field Mr. Romney leads Mr. Santorum 38% to 32%. If it is just the two of them in the running Mr. Romney still leads 45% to 40%.

State primary matchups would likely yield different results, but it’s difficult to know how different. The temptation is to assign a percentage of the Gingrich vote to each of the front-runners – what if Mr. Santorum captures, say, 65% of Mr. Gingrich’s vote in Illinois or Louisiana?

But the bigger question is: How does one identify the Gingrich vote – 65% of what?

Simply playing the percentage game doesn’t get at the heart of the matter. Understanding the arithmetic behind the Gingrich vote is not easy.

First, which states are you focusing on? Like any candidate Mr. Gingrich has places that are more likely to support him than others and you can get a sense of where his supporters would have the biggest impact by using the demographic/geographic Patchwork Nation breakdown of counties.

Click on the graphic for a larger image.

So far anyway, Mr. Gingrich’s greatest strength has been in southern states and particularly in counties Patchwork Nation calls Minority Central, places with large African-American populations. So far the former House speaker has won 36% of all the votes coming out of those counties – generally the white, largely Republican voters in them. He won those counties even in Florida, where he lost overall.

However, none of those county types plays a big role in the Illinois primary, which is coming up Tuesday. The vast majority of Illinois voters live in the big city Industrial Metropolis of Cook County, home of Chicago, and the wealthy Monied Burb counties that surround it. So the net Newt impact would probably be pretty small. The same would probably true in upcoming primaries in Wisconsin, New York and Connecticut.

Louisiana, which votes Saturday March 24, is a very different story. In Louisiana, 70% of the population lives in Minority Central counties and 18% live in the Boom Towns. In other words, if form follows, the Gingrich vote there could play a very big role in who ultimately wins the state. The same might also be true in states like North Carolina and Kentucky that are still ahead.

There are other factors in play in the great game of Gingrich arithmetic, however, and they are important.

As Mr. Gingrich’s chances for winning the nomination wane, it’s not really clear where his voters will go. On Tuesday, for instance, Mr. Gingrich’s past strength in Minority Central counties didn’t manifest itself in either Alabama or Mississippi. Mr. Romney carried that vote in Alabama and Mr. Santorum won it in Mississippi.

And remember, there are some places where Mr. Romney and Mr. Santorum have such big advantages that the Gingrich vote likely wouldn’t change anything.

For instance, if you took the entire Gingrich vote in New Hampshire and gave it to one of the other opponents of Mr. Romney, it would not have changed the outcome. The same is true in Minnesota if you took all of Mr. Gingrich’s votes and gave them to someone other than Mr. Santorum.

Of course, the Gingrich vote could make a difference in delegate counts, but the proportional system being used to divvy up those numbers makes it nearly impossible to figure the impact.

None of this is to say that Mr. Gingrich’s continuing campaign isn’t affecting the 2012 field. As long as he keeps drawing votes, particularly in the double-digits, he’s keeping a somewhat unsettled feeling over the race. But it’s difficult to divine exactly what an abrupt end to the Gingrich campaign would mean – and that’s particularly true in an election year as unpredictable as this one has been.

About Washington Wire

Washington Wire is one of the oldest standing features in American journalism. Since the Wire launched on Sept. 20, 1940, the Journal has offered readers an informal look at the capital. Now online, the Wire provides a succession of glimpses at what’s happening behind hot stories and warnings of what to watch for in the days ahead. The Wire is led by Reid J. Epstein, with contributions from the rest of the bureau. Washington Wire now also includes Think Tank, our home for outside analysis from policy and political thinkers.