Saudi Arabia already has demonstrated that it cannot pose a military challenge, even with the finest weapons at its disposal. What strategic balance are we talking about here?

Even in an era of climate change it is difficult to presume that this autumn, when the international peace conference is due, will produce a flowering of Israeli-Saudi relations. But when fantasizing about "Humus in Mecca," one mustn't criticize the major arms deal, worth $20 billion, that the United States and Saudi Arabia have reached, particularly when Israel is a main client in the deal. On the other hand, it is not gratuitous to dive into the depths of the American logic behind its Middle East policy.

The planned arms sale to Saudi Arabia would "help bolster forces of moderation and support a broader strategy to counter the negative influences of Al-Qaida, Hezbollah, Syria and Iran," Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice explained. Let us forget for the moment that Al-Qaida's underpinnings were in Saudi Arabia and that most of the September 11 terrorists held Saudi citizenship. Let us also ignore for the moment that expressions of hatred against Christians and Jews are still common in Saudi schools, and let us not mention the paradox that Saudi citizens, who will benefit from innovative American arms, have great difficulty getting into the United States, being automatically suspect. Let us close our eyes, concentrate hard, and talk only about strategy.

For example, what does a deal for sophisticated aircraft in Saudi Arabia have to do with calming the situation in Iraq? Saudi Arabia and Iraq share an 800-kilometer border, a border that is largely unsupervised and extremely porous, like the Syrian border, to the entry of terrorist elements from Saudi Arabia. It is also known that Saudi institutions bankroll Sunni political groups in Iraq, some of them terror-affiliated, and that Saudi Arabia has made it clear that it will not back the government of Nouri al-Maliki, who has Washington's support. But while Syria is hit with sanctions for similar activity, Saudi Arabia is courted as a client.

George Bush, as is well known, is an authorized exporter of democracy, but what strategic message does Bush convey to "the democracy of Iraq," or that of other countries, when he supports the "democracy" of Saudi Arabia with arms? And why is $200 million in aid to Egypt frozen because that country does not invest enough in nurturing democracy and civil rights, whereas no such demand is made of Saudi Arabia? Has the development of democracy in the Middle East ceased being a strategic goal, or are oil-rich countries exempt?

Perhaps the logic of Bush's strategy can be found in another dark corner: in that same attempt to convey a $20 billion strategic message to Iran via Saudi Arabia. But there is faulty logic here as well. Saudi Arabia has already demonstrated that it cannot pose a military challenge, neither to Saddam Hussein nor to Iran, even with the finest weapons at its disposal. What strategic balance are we talking about here? If sophisticated weapons in Saudi hands will deter Iran, then maybe the Iranian threat is not as dangerous as we thought? And when a nuclear-according-to-foreign-sources country like Israel cannot deter Iran, how will state-of-the-art fighter planes do so?

And one more tiny matter. If you have to stabilize the situation in Iran and block negative Iranian influences, and to that end must equip Saudi Arabia, what is the meaning of the joint talks between Iran and the U.S. on the Iraq question?

If it is hard to be impressed by the pure strategic logic of the Saudi arms deal, it is permissible to worry about America's strategic standing in the region - because neither Saudi nor Kuwaiti arms protect the Gulf, but rather the massive presence of the U.S. army and the understanding that it is Washington who will act against any threat to the Arab states. Israel's safety also depends on this. The U.S. failed to create a balance of terror with Saddam Hussein, as it has failed to create one with Iran. It established a terrorist state in Iraq and is incapable of stopping the export of terrorism from there to other Arab countries.

The fall festival starring Saudi Arabia will, in the best-case scenario, propel a process of some sort between Israel and the Palestinians, but will not dismantle the threatening strategic configuration in the region. That would take not fighter planes for Saudi Arabia, but rather a genuine shift in Washington.

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So Messrs Bush has done it again: he backtracked on yet another promise. There was a good case to be made back in the day that the invasion of Iraq was intended to free America from dependence on Saudi oil-supplies to a certain extent, as well as provide leverage against the ever oil-hungrier Chinese in the future by having the hands on the tab. Now that this boat has practically sunk, the "break with past-policies towards the Middle East" that Bush proclaimed with pride inflated chest after 9/11 just isn't an option anymore.
Having said that, there are some good points to be made in support of the arms deal with regards to geopolitical strategy. There is a good Pro&Con debate going on on this website [url=http://www.atlantic-community.org/index.php/articles/view/Can_Saudi_Arabia_Be_Trusted%3F]here[/url]

It needs a wise supreme leader, and wise Islamic scholars who can discern who is a candidate that fits Islamic standards and who is not. All these things, if they cannot be understood by the U.S., then it would be better to focus on perfecting it's own system. Iran, the most perfect democracy in the Muslim world, would not export it's model into Saudi Arabia by force. Last but not least, Saudi Arabia is sunni, and shia Islam has the power and discipline sunni Islam cannot provide unless by the use of force and repression, which doesn't exist in the I.R. of Iran.

The US is not a democracy. It has only two parties, which espouses shades of one and the same system. That such a non-democracy would vest itself as the champion of democracy is Chutzpah. But to champion it in a medieval, patriarcal and tribal part of the world such as the Arab Middle East is both stupid and dangerous too. God forbid to promote democracy for Saudi Arabia from without. It would end with an Al-Qaida-ispired "Emirate" in power. And that would be catastrophic.

For years I had believed that Israel acquired secret (ha!ha!) nuclear weapons because they feared destruction by their Arab neighbours.History has shown several times that that outcome is highly unlikely,as they are capable of defending themselves with conventional.
Israel acquired those weapons because they do not trust "their closest ally," AND THEY ARE PROBABLY RIGHT.

Look up the salt-water fuel web sites. Remember the Hindenburg Blimp explosion? Hydrogen gas. Atom separation of simple salt water produces this gas, which can be burned instead of fossil oil. The bloodthirsty oil mongers days are numbered. As the word gets out the masses will press, for the conversion. Looks as if oil extortion will finally be ended. Perhaps humanity will learn not to corrupt this resource since it is friendly to the environment, and readily available to everyone. Now if only as much effort was put into resolving poverty issues???? hmmmm...???

Look up the salt-water fuel web sites. Remember the Hindenburg Blimp explosion? Hydrogen gas. Atom separation of simple salt water produces this gas, which can be burned instead of fossil oil. The bloodthirsty oil mongers days are numbered. As the word gets out the masses will press, for the conversion. Looks as if oil extortion will finally be ended. Perhaps humanity will learn not to corrupt this resource since it is friendly to the environment, and readily available to everyone. Now if only as much effort was put into resolving poverty issues???? hmmmm...???

Then Israel won't have other choice than using its nuclear arsenal. Is it going to help american or international interests? If the number one superpower is arming a corrupt, backward country like Saudi Arabia, then there is no reason to ask the question; why american prestige is declining? Dear Mr.President Bush I beg you to replace your Secretary of State with somebody competent, who has a quality that is more important than lexikon-knowledge. That quality is VISION! G-d Save America and Israel!

It is true there is an end in sight of oil but that is only deposits in levels down we can handle now but there are many many deposits lower down and its extractable,it just costs more.Those deposits there is virtually an unlimited amount.Still it doesnt help the Ozone layer.

I'm not surprised that you don't understand american foreign policy with regard of the ME. Remember the intelligence reports before the war in Iraq started and the director of the agency was, just recently decorated for his services at the CIA. How come that incompetent people at the State Department formulating american foreign policy resulting in failures? One after the other; resulting in aggravating situations, instead of solving them! Syria is being armed by the russians, Iran is a nascent nuclear power with russian help, Saudi Arabia is building its military power with american assistence. In the meantime Israel is getting increase financial "aid" to buy "M16" rifles, so to speak. It looks like the ME. is getting ready for a new arab israeli armed conflict according to the Baker/Rice design. We must keep in mind that there is Hetzbollah in Lebanon, Hamas in Gaza and Fatah in the W.Bank. If this is going to happen, then Israel won't have other chance for survival but using its nuc

You sound like a very confused person. Did you not say that you had voted Republican until 2000? Your idea that democracy can be perfect is also confused. If you think that there is any comparison between Saudi Arabia and the US, under any administration, then you are totally confused. Your support of Hamas, a totalitarian, theocratic group, who has just forced a conversion on a Christian woman, proves beyond doubt that you are completely confused.

I am not sure how do you define an American but trust me I am as authentic as they can come. And if you ever lived in America, there is nothing called first or second generation immigrants, we are all Americans including my originally Jewish fellow citizens who arrived a few years from Israel.
This is the USA sir, not Israel whether you arrived yesterday or your ancestors arrived on the May Flower, whether you are a Jew, a Christian or a Muslim we are equal citizens before the law. Did you know that Abraham himself was an immigrant not a native of the Land!!!!

Jane, great POST!
I agree what nerve! ALWAYS NOT a friend to anyone but themselves. They have PLENTY of big time problems with their Muslim population. As I stated to Frenchie, Hezbollah is bringing in thousands of rockets right under their nose, useless -EVEN AS PEACEKEEPERS. You can BET they will get out of Lebanon FAST if war breaks out. Or...bring out "the surrender monkey".

As far as I can tell if there were honest elections in Saudi today, the winners would be Wahabbist religious fanatics pushing the kind of religion/politics mix which the House of Saud has propagandized the people of Saudi with for generations, or the Republican Party has promoted here in America for the last generation.
There would be no 'liberal western democracy" in Saudi anymore than there is in the United States.

"I haven`t decided yet if the whole democracy in the Middle East thing was well meaning albeit overly ambitious, or just plain stupid and naive."
- Jane
The problem with democracy - which is why our current supreme leader ran to the Supreme Court to have himself appointed Resident - is that the people might just vote in their own interest instead of that of the ruling class of America.
We might be able to flip a switch and have control of the election results in Ohio in 2004 turned over to the RNC's web servers, (no wonder Rove wasn't worried), but that can't happen if you have honest elections verified by extensive world monitoring as in either Iraq or Venezuela.
Thus the kind of democracy favored by American conservatives is impossible in the ME (except under the likes of Saddam who liked his elections fixed as does our Resident Bush).
What do you want Jane? "Democracy" which is rule by the people? Or "democracy" which is rule by the elite who control the press and advertising?

"Sadly our enconomy is dependent on fossil fuels and until we change that fact we are forced to hold our noses and deal with the Saudis."
- Jane
In January 1981, the newly elected Reagan Administration was determined to terminate all efforts at self-sufficiency, conservation, and technology to eliminate US oil dependency. This was done to reward those corporations which had funded the election of Ronald Reagan. The Republican Party, also beholden to those same corporations made it a major goal - right up to this day - of ensuring that there would be no conservation, no fuel-efficiency, nothing but utter US dependence upon Arab Oil.
In simple terms Jane, the folks you have spent your life keeping in power are guilty of making the US utterly dependent upon the good will of the House of Saud.
It is the neo-cons who control the Republican party who have turned America into a depraved and degenerate state Jane.
They have wasted almost 30 years which we could have used to save ourselves.

The loud announcements of the Bush Junta and it's supporters that 100% of the cost of the Iraq war and reconstruction would be paid for by Iraqi oil revenues has turned out to be 100% wrong.
But they don't care, they have been stealing the Social Security Trust Fund to pay for the war and their personal and family profits, and that is all that matters for them. This was a war started for political and pecuniary gain and it has been astoundingly successful if viewed from that position.
"Oil was never the reason for the war."
- Jane
Twaddle. Iraq was to be an unsinkable aircraft carrier with it's own fuel supply from which the US would dominate the region.
"Our relationship with the gulf states is another matter and we pay dearly for that oil in ways too numerous to list here . . . "
- Jane
Not all Americans pay, some profit. Halliburton, it's stock holders, the big oil companies and the Bush family have all prospered.
The Iraq war has only harmed America, not all Americans.

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