GOP fears rise on 2012 tone, message

Cantor said the right approach is not to avoid social issues or immigration but to recognize that, for many of the voters the GOP needs most, “jobs and the economy” are preoccupying concerns. “Independent voters,” he added, “will give you credit” when addressing divisive issues “by trying to find a way to bridge differences.”

Former Republican National Committee Chairman Ed Gillespie warned in more dire terms that, among Hispanic voters in particular, the GOP had to move quickly to deliver a more compelling message — or else “2016, 2020 is when it becomes acute if we don’t move to fix it now.”

“If the Republican nominee in 2020 gets the same percentage of African-American, Hispanic and Asian-American votes that Sen. McCain got, the Democrat will win by 14 points,” Gillespie said, adding that without some comprehensive immigration reform deal, “it doesn’t mean we can’t grow our share of the Hispanic vote, but it does lower the ceiling of how much we can grow it.”

While the task of courting Hispanic voters is a long-range project for Republicans, the work has to start in 2012, strategists say, before the party is consigned to oblivion by a group that’s rapidly expanding its political influence.

Just 26 percent of Hispanic voters told NBC pollsters last month that they’d support Romney over Obama. In November, the respected Pew Hispanic Center found just 16 percent of Hispanics named the GOP as the party to which they felt closest.

For Romney — still viewed as the party’s most likely nominee — the goal of reaching Hispanics probably didn’t get any easier Wednesday night, after he praised some of Arizona’s stringent immigration policies as a “model” for the nation. Speaking in the state that triggered a national firestorm over immigration in 2010, Romney once again pledged to drop the Justice Department challenge to Arizona’s law giving new power to local authorities to crack down on illegals and highlighted several other measures that are off-putting to many Hispanics.

“I will drop those lawsuits on Day One. I’ll also complete the fence. I’ll make sure we have enough Border Patrol agents to secure the fence. And I will make sure we have an E-Verify system and require employers to check the documents of workers,” Romney said. “You do that, and just as Arizona is finding out, you can stop illegal immigration. It’s time we finally did it.”

As Romney heads into the general election, he’ll have to explain those comments to a much wider audience — including Latinos whose view of Romney has steadily worsened over the course of the campaign.