The first revision to Q1 GDP printed at 1.0%, down from the preliminary Q2 GDP print of 1.3%, and as expected was worse than Wall Street consensus of -1.1%, although it was certainly not as bad as the miss to the preliminary number. Stone McCarthy's forecast of 0.7% is not necessarily wrong: it is probably just early: the final revision to Q2 GDP will come on September 29, one week after the next FOMC meeting, and will be the last sub 1% GDP growth number before we see a negative GDP print for Q3. Personal Consumption printed a little better than expected at 0.4%, higher than consensus of 0.2%. Alas, this number will be whacked massively in Q3. Core PCE was also slightly higher than expectations of 2.1%, coming at 2.2%. The components of the 1.0% revised GDP were: PCE: 0.3%; Fixed Investment: 1.01%, Change in Private Inventories: -0.23%; Exports: 0.41%; Imports -0.31%; and Government consumption -0.18%. This is the third consecutive quarter in which the government has taken away from growth.

Full breakdown below:

And here is why any rumors of a US recovery are greatly exagerated:

And here is Goldman's breakdown:

1. Q2 real GDP growth was revised down to 1.0% (quarter-over-quarter, annualized) in the second estimate, down from 1.3% in the advance report. The revision reflected a reduction in the contribution from inventories to -0.2 percentage points (pp) from +0.2pp previously. Final sales growth-GDP excluding the effects of inventories-was revised up to 1.2% from 1.1% in the advance report. Changes in the components were in line with our expectations. Consumer spending and business fixed investment were revised up, but net exports were revised down. Other components were close to unchanged.

I actually think that MSM are perfectly capable of transforming whatever nonsensical fact, be it bearish or downright shit, into a glimpse of sunny bullishness. I specifically recall an instance from a few days ago when every single piece of news coming out was worse than the previous one, and I mean from a substabtial Chinese economy contraction to completely awful US economic indicators. Yet when the DOW initiated its full retard sequence, I actually heard Bloomberg's Matt Miller saying that the only "reasonable" explanation is that due to the storm of negative economic news, "investors" are taking their positions because it was more likely for Bernanke to announce QE3. (o_o)

No, Irene is not that bad and will not do much. Gonna evaporate as soon as it hits the cape. The drought conditions in the Southest, just like in Texas are very bad and there is plenty of room on land in the vegetation to suck all the moisture out of this hurricane in a second. This is a GOOD thing, several of my crops need the water desperately. BRING IT.

I hope you are correct.... but I try to follow the maxim that an ounce of prevention is worth a pound of cure...

I was in Halifax the week after Juan hit in 2003. Juan was a fast moving modest cat 1-2 that made a direct hit on the city. The city was devastated, partially because it had been ~100 years since a hurricane had landed in the area. Trees everywhere. Westchester is similar, lots of old dodgy trees waiting for a big gust.

I would gladly send you the water, some golf courses here are soaked and almost unplayable...

the ground will suck it up? so you are saying a hurricane is not bad if it doesn't flood you out?

you might know laws of physics but lack those of common sense. i'm as cynical as the most about weather panic, but this thing is 90% to show up centered on new york city in 2 days, and 95% to hit the northeast generally.

Also, Private investment is only up "officially" 0.15%. That's were recoveries come from, capital investment. What would Murray make of all this insanity if he was alive today, especially with all the internet access? He could see through the all the bull way back. Even wrote an amazing critique of the Chicago School, monetarism and Friedman way back in 1971 before it influenced policy makers.

Bill of course. The dissertation was post his 1971 arrest when he was advocating a move to the Cannabis Standard. Sadly, after the confiscation of said herb, his theories were discredited by a sea of voices from the fiat crowd. He fled the field of economics for greener pastures in entertainment to the regret of canna-numismaticists around the world.

The corporate profit numbers were revised down 5% from prior and now stand at 0% year-over-year...would one expect this, in combination with GDP, to move markets sginificantly lower independent of Bernanke's speech?