The
above percentages represent the month-to-month change in Consumer
Spending and Personal Income for the entire United States. The
"predicted" figure is what economists and Wall Street forecasters were
expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

Friday, October 26, 2012

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) "Advance" Released Today for Q3, 2012

U.S. Gross Domestic
Product (GDP) numbers for the third quarter of 2012 were released this
morning by the Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA):

Predicted: +1.9%Actual: +2.0%

The
above percentages represent the quarter-to-quarter change in the Gross
Domestic Product for the United States. The "predicted" figure is what
economists and Wall Street forecasters were expecting, while the
"actual" is the true or real figure.

The GDP is the broadest measure of economic activity in the entire United States, covering all sectors of the economy.

The
"advance" estimates are based on data that are incomplete or subject to
future revision. Next month, the Commerce Department will release a
"preliminary" report for the above-referenced quarter, which will
contain more accurate data. Eventually, a "final" GDP report will be released by the BEA, which will contain the most accurate and authoritative data
on the above-referenced quarter.

Consumer Sentiment for October 2012

The Consumer Sentiment figure for this month (October 2012):

Predicted: 78.3Actual: 82.6

The Consumer Sentiment Index is compiled on a monthly basis by the University of Michigan; 500 U.S. households are queried about their own financial circumstances and about the economy in general. 200 questions are asked, e.g. "Do you think that right now is a good time to purchase a major household item, like a new microwave oven, TV set, or a new sofa?"

The Consumer Sentiment Index uses a 1966 baseline, i.e. for 1966, the Consumer Sentiment Index = 100. So any number that is below the 1966 baseline of 100 means that the folks who were polled recently aren't as optimistic about the U.S. economy as the sample that was polled back in 1966.

The Consumer Sentiment Index is similar to the Consumer Confidence Index in that they both measure consumer attitudes and offer insight into consumer spending.

The "predicted" figure is what economists and Wall Street forecasters were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

Thursday, October 25, 2012

Durable Goods Orders Report for September 2012

The Durable Goods Orders report for September 2012 was released this morning:

Predicted: +7.0%Actual: +9.9%

The
above percentages represent the month-to-month change in orders for
durable or hard goods for immediate or future delivery from U.S.
manufacturers. Examples of durable goods: cars, airplanes, computers --
items that are built to last 3+ years.

The "predicted" figure is what economists and Wall Street forecasters
were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure. The
Durable Goods Orders report is produced by the Commerce Department.

New Unemployment Insurance Claims for The Week of October 20, 2012

Earlier today, the Labor
Department released the New Unemployment Insurance Claims report
for the week that ended on October 20, 2012:

Predicted: 372,000Actual: 369,000

Last Week (Revised): 392,000

The above figures represent the number of first-time claims for
unemployment benefits for the entire United States. The
"predicted" figure is what economists and Wall Street
forecasters were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or
real figure.

New Home Sales for September 2012

Actual New Home Sales: 389,000
------------------------------------------------------

Change from One Month Previous: +5.7%
Change from One Year Previous: +27.1%

------------------------------------------------------Median Price for a New Home during September: $242,400
Average Price for a New Home during September: $292,400Click here for historical prices and a chart.Compiled jointly by the U.S. Commerce Department and the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, the monthly New Home Sales report measures the number of newly-built homes with committed buyers for a given month.

The "predicted" figure is what economists and Wall Street forecasters were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

The New Home Sales report is watched by economists and investors because it offers insight into the state of the U.S. housing market, and also provides data that can be used to predict sales of large household furniture and appliances like refrigerators, air conditioners and microwave ovens.

Friday, October 19, 2012

Existing Home Sales for September 2012

The Existing Home Sales report for September 2012 was released by The National Association of Realtors® this morning:

Predicted: 4,750,000Actual: 4,750,000

------------------------------------------------------

Change from One Month Previous: -1.7%
Change from One Year Previous: +11.0%

------------------------------------------------------

The "actual" figure above represents the preliminary, seasonally adjusted annual sales count of existing homes, co-ops and condominiums for last month. The "predicted" figure is what economists and Wall Street forecasters were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

------------------------------------------------------

Median Price for A used home In September 2012: $183,900
Change from One Year Previous: +11.3%Average Price for A used home In September 2012: $232,000
Change from One Year Previous: +9.0%

Thursday, October 18, 2012

Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey for October 2012

Earlier today, the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia released its diffuse index of current manufacturing conditions for this month (October):

Predicted: +0.5Actual: +5.7

The "actual" figure above is an index of current manufacturing conditions within the Federal Reserve's Third District, which includes eastern Pennsylvania, all of Delaware and the southern half of New Jersey. Any figure below zero implies that manufacturing in the region is contracting, and vice versa.

The "predicted" figure is what economists and Wall Street forecasters were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

Leading Economic Indicators for September 2012

The Conference Board report on the nation's Leading Economic Indicators for September 2012 was released this morning:

Predicted: +0.2%

Actual: +0.6%

The above numbers represent the month-to-month change for the nation's leading economic indicators. The "predicted" figure is what economists and Wall Street forecasters were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

The Leading Economic Indicators Index is a composite of 10 of the nation's economic data releases that's put together by The Conference Board. Statistically, the components listed below have shown a significant increase or decrease before national economic upturns or downturns:

New Unemployment Insurance Claims for The Week of October 13, 2012

Earlier today, the Labor
Department released the New Unemployment Insurance Claims report
for the week that ended on October 13, 2012:

Predicted: 365,000Actual: 388,000

Last Week (Revised): 342,000

The above figures represent the number of first-time claims for
unemployment benefits for the entire United States. The
"predicted" figure is what economists and Wall Street
forecasters were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or
real figure.

The above is a measure of initial construction of single and multi-family residential units in The United States for last month. The "predicted" figure is what economists and Wall Street forecasters were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

If you're wondering about the demand for new homes in the United States, or about the American construction industry in general, then you should pay attention to the monthly Housing Starts report. The monthly Housing Starts report also offers insight into specific types of consumer spending: when housing starts are up, demand for the stuff that a consumer would purchase for a new home (large appliances, consumer electronics, furniture, etc.) tends to also rise--and vice versa.

Consumer Price Index (CPI) for September 2012

Earlier this morning, the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics released the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for September 2012:

Predicted: 0.5%Actual: 0.6%

Below is the CPI when food and energy are subtracted from the equation, also known as the "core CPI":

Predicted: +0.2%Actual: +0.1%

The
above numbers represent the seasonally adjusted, month-to-month change
in prices for a specific group of goods and services that consumers buy,
and is, therefore, a very important part of the overall inflation picture for the country.

The
"predicted" figure is what economists and Wall Street forecasters were
expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

Friday, October 12, 2012

Consumer Sentiment for October 2012

The Consumer Sentiment figure for this month (October 2012):

Predicted: 78.3Actual: 83.1

The
Consumer Sentiment Index is compiled on a monthly basis by the
University of Michigan; 500 U.S. households are queried about their own
financial circumstances and about the economy in general. 200 questions
are asked, e.g. "Do you think that right now is a good time to purchase a
major household item, like a new microwave oven, TV set, or a new
sofa?"

The Consumer Sentiment Index uses a 1966 baseline, i.e.
for 1966, the Consumer Sentiment Index = 100. So any number that is
below the 1966 baseline of 100 means that the folks who were polled
recently aren't as optimistic about the U.S. economy as the sample that
was polled back in 1966.

The Consumer Sentiment Index is similar
to the Consumer Confidence Index in that they both measure consumer
attitudes and offer insight into consumer spending.

The
"predicted" figure is what economists and Wall Street forecasters were
expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

Producer Price Index (PPI) for September 2012

The Producer Price Index (PPI) for September 2012 was released this morning:

Predicted: +0.8%Actual:+1.1%

Below is the PPI when food and energy are subtracted from the equation, also known as the "core PPI":

Predicted: +0.2%Actual: +0.0%

The
above numbers represent the month-to-month change in prices for a
specific group of goods and capital equipment that producers buy in
order to produce finished goods for consumers. The PPI is an important
part of the overall inflation picture for the country because when costs
go up for producers, producers will often pass those increased costs on
to consumers.

The PPI is released by the Department of Labor's Bureau of Labor Statistics.
The
"predicted" figure is what economists and Wall Street forecasters were
expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

Thursday, October 11, 2012

International Trade Balance Level for August, 2012

The International Trade Balance Level for August, 2012 was released by The U.S. Commerce Department this morning:

Predicted: $ -44,000,000,000Actual: $ -44,200,000,000

The
"actual" figure above represents the balance of trade -- imports vs.
exports -- between the United States and all other countries, and
includes both goods and services. A negative number represents a trade
deficit, while a positive number represents a trade surplus.

The
"predicted" figure is what economists and Wall Street forecasters were
expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

New Unemployment Insurance Claims for The Week of October 6, 2012

Earlier today, the Labor
Department released the New Unemployment Insurance Claims report
for the week that ended on October 6, 2012:

Predicted: 370,000Actual: 339,000

Last Week (Revised): 369,000

The above figures represent the number of first-time claims for
unemployment benefits for the entire United States. The
"predicted" figure is what economists and Wall Street
forecasters were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or
real figure.

Economist,
academics, central bankers and investors pay very close attention to
the monthly Employment Situation report as it offers penetrating insight
as to the current and near-future state of the overall U.S. economy. If
a) Americans are earning more money, b) unemployment is low and c) the
economy is creating new jobs, this typically translates to more money
being pumped into the economy (and vice versa.)

The "predicted"
figure is what economists and Wall Street forecasters were expecting,
while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

Thursday, October 04, 2012

U.S. Factory Orders Report for August 2012

The U.S. Census Bureau this morning released their report on manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories & Orders -- also known as Factory Orders -- for August 2012:

Predicted: -6.0%Actual: -5.2%

The above percentages represent the month-to-month change in orders for both durable and nondurable goods made by from U.S. manufacturers. The "predicted" figure is what economists and Wall Street forecasters were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

New Unemployment Insurance Claims for The Week of September 29, 2012

Earlier today, the Labor
Department released the New Unemployment Insurance Claims report
for the week that ended on September 29, 2012:

Predicted: 370,000Actual: 367,000

Last Week (Revised): 363,000

The above figures represent the number of first-time claims for
unemployment benefits for the entire United States. The
"predicted" figure is what economists and Wall Street
forecasters were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or
real figure.

Monday, October 01, 2012

ISM Manufacturing Index for September 2012

Earlier today, the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) released their Purchasing Manager's Index (PMI) for September 2012:

Predicted: 49.7%Actual: 51.5%

Every month, the ISM surveys purchasing and supply executives at hundreds of companies across the country who are involved in manufacturing in some form. The resulting index is watched closely by academics, economists and investors because manufacturing accounts for 12% of U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP).

The PMI is a reliable barometer of U.S. manufacturing: A PMI above 50% implies that U.S. manufacturing expanded during the month specified, while a reading below 50% implies that the manufacturing sector contracted.

The "predicted" figure is what economists and Wall Street forecasters were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

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