Trade Gives Reds the Lead-off Man they were Missing

Last year, the Cincinnati Reds finished 97-65, winning their second NL Central Crown in three years. They outscored their opponents by exactly half a run per game and featured four starters with at least 200 innings pitched and an ERA+ over 110.

So it might be hard to find fault with their current model – but alas, they scored only 669 runs, putting them at the middle of the pack in the National League. This is despite playing at Great America Ballpark, which is a well-known launching pad.

Much of this could be attributed to two factors. One, of course, is the 2-month absence of mega-star first baseman Joey Votto, who was the National League’s best player in the first half. The other was the absence of a reliable table-setter.

The hodgepodge of players that Reds manager Dusty Baker inserted into the #1 spot in the order – a spot that sees more plate appearances than any other – managed some pretty atrocious numbers, including a meager .254 on-base percentage and a grand total of 10 stolen bases.

The Reds were neither the big winners nor the big losers in this trade. They sacrificed the least and received just one year out of the primary Major Leaguer involved. But for 2013, Shin-Soo Choo gives the Reds the missing piece they were looking for.

The 30-year old South Korean has a career on-base percentage of .381. He’ll add some pop to the top of the order, averaging 19 home runs and 38 doubles per 162 games for his career. He even adds a speed element that the lead-off spot was missing, averaging 20 stolen bases at a 77% success rate.

The one question is whether or not Choo – generally a right fielder for all but a handful of his career games – can adjust to center field, with Ryan Ludwick and Jay Bruce firmly entrenched in the corner outfield spots.

In either case, Joey Votto will find himself with a whole lot more ducks on the pond this season, and the Reds pitching will appreciate the extra support.

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105 Responses to “Trade Gives Reds the Lead-off Man they were Missing”

Choo is a nice player, and should help the Reds at the top of the order.
Although it remains to be seen whether or not Dusty Baker bats him in the top 3rd of the lineup. After all, he could put him 7th just to spite you.

Dusty Baker is like Ozzie Guillen in that he makes moves to his roster and lineup that make no goddamn sense… And still win a shitload of games in spite of their own seeming incompetence. Are we the real idiots and they’re true baseball geniuses, or are they just THAT goddamn lucky?

That’s the thing with statistics. I think a lot of it is more meta-analysis than cut and dry. The thing is that baseball’s not an exact science, so by methodology’s own definition, anything you come up about it is just a theory. It’s not subject to experimentation (well, the game itself. Mythbusters did an episode about some baseball myths, but that’s about the acts of certain things and not the game as a whole). You can’t test it in a true lab setting, there aren’t proper controls, in/dependent variables, etc. Anything you extract from the numbers is analyzing the numbers themselves and not the whole process. Meta-analysis is a dangerous trap when you mistake it for proper analysis.

Lineups have a conventional wisdom, but when you think about it, you can conceivably say your best hitter should be leadoff despite the fact he hits homeruns and runs like pigfuck covered in molasses because they get on base the most and the hitter with the highest slugging percentage should be third and not cleanup to take advantage of the setup. Is that the case? …I have no goddamn idea. All we really have is conventional wisdom and our own perception when you think about it since there’s no true objective way to observe the game itself when viewed as a whole.

You know, with Hamilton’s speed…I don’t think he will be pushing 100 steals a year.
With someone that fast, he can score on a double from 1B easily. Getting to 2nd doesn’t make much difference in his particular case.

Considering what stimulants do to your ability to focus, I’d say they’re performance decreasers. Seriously, sit next to a crackhead and watch them try to focus. It’s comedy watching them try to narrow their attention.

But come now. If 50 or 75% of MLB players were using steroids, and basically everyone had access, and it was legal, how was it cheating? Frankly, I might’ve even been pissed at a teammate who didn’t use.

Sosa hit 600 HR on steroids. But anyone can adjust for era and say that he was less good than Frank Robinson.

Robinson played in one era, Sosa another. Relative to their peers, there’s no question who was more dominant. Sosa honored off steroid users, Robinson honored off greenie users. Robinson was an all-time great. Sosa, not even close.

Uh, they weren’t legal. That’s the big thing. A fair amount of those steroids were…

A) Controlled substances (Illegal under US law.)
B) Obtained via fraudulent subscription (Also Illgal under US law.)
C) Still technically banned under MLB’s CBA (Illegal in the game, though not enforced.)

How was it cheating? Honestly…it’s a gray area. It’s just a line, albeit arbitrary, where a lot of people feel that it’s going too far to gain an unfair advantage.

A guy like Hossrex could give two shits about steroids (if I recall correctly).
A guy like Chuck bans them.

There’s no rule that says any great player…clean or not…must get in the HOF.
Bonds, Clemens, whoever…if they get in…I won’t agree —- well let me put it this way, because my feelings always change on this issue.

Bonds, McGwire, Clemens…these guys were great players. Steroids, no steroids…they were great players. Each year I get more tired of the HOF. If the argument is that they belong with other great players…with the caveat that they used steroids…then so be it. If the argument is that they should be banned from the HOF because we don’t want to celebrate them because of their use, but at the same time admit they were great players…that’s fine with me too

With Mike Trout’s skill, I don’t think I’d want him leading off.
His bat is too important.
Would be cool if he could bat 2nd or 3rd…but with Aybar and Callaspo on the roster…ugh…putting those guys at the top of the order is a crime

Well, shit, I guess he doesn’t have a choice. No lefties there besides Hamilton.

I keep reading these rumors about Bourjos and relievers for RA Dickey.
I’m sorry, Dickey may be old but he’s gotta bring in more than Bourjos. I don’t get the fucking hype over this kid. He’s Carlos Gomez. Defender with some speed…no bat.

I’m not trading a Cy Young winner for a fucking 4th outfielder…no matter how old the pitcher is.

I’ll give you that. 2.95 ERA over three years, not to mention the fact that knuckleballers age like fine wine. However, can we really expect him to be the next Phil Niekro? Does he really have 10 years left in him? They need more than Bourjous, sure, but I think you can settle low as… Him, two relievers, and no lower than the #6 prospect.

I think you’re underestimating Bourjos’s fielding. Before this Hamilton business, Scoscia was talking about starting Bourbon in C.F. and shifting Trout to LF. Trout was the one of the very best defensive C.F. in the game last year. That should tell you something about Bourjos.

Only reason I think Scoscia would put Bourjos in the lineup is because between Bourjos and Vernon Wells…both are shitty bats…but Bourjos can field better.

Otherwise, Bourjos is a 4th, 5th outfielder. Ideally, Wells is the odd man out. But his contract is going to dictate that Bourjos gets traded.

The Mariners have a deeper prospect pool than the Angels. Problem is Seattle is deep with pitching prospects, so Dickey is of no use to them…but that’s where I would have looked if the Mets wanted to steal from a deep system.

Dickey is from Kentucky or Tennessee…which I suppose isn’t too far from Baltimore. Wonder if there’s a deal to be made there. Gets Dickey out of the NL East…

Glad most all see thatall cheating is not equal. Greenies were not even banned until ‘73, steroids less than 2 decades later, & their effects on basic capabilities, body & performance are not comparable.

We also do not know at all whether under 1/3, 1/2, or the vast majority used PEDs, at least once or occasionally. Either way many did not, the playing field was vastly unequal, & honest people lost jobs, fortune, & their life’s dreams to cheaters & liars.

I can appreciate your exasperation Raul, & shifting opinions about what we should do re: honoring folks in the HOF. Though personally not admitting users unless they admit & apologize sincerely, + were clearly good enough clean, solves the problem of honoring greatness, integrity, & providing a small measure of redemption.

I don’t pretend to have a firm stance on the issue. If we’re going to tell these guys to admit their use and apologize in order to get in the HOF, it may set a precedent that allows for increased steroid use in the game by future players.

Maybe it’s just a one-time thing. Maybe it depends on the player and the situation.

If Pete Rose admitted to betting on games in ‘89, apologized for it and admitted he had a gambling problem and sought help, he may well be in the Hall of Fame today. If Bonds had admitted it in the beginning…if Clemens had admitted it instead of pursuing legal action…they might have been forgiven already and people might even be looking forward to their inductions. But they didn’t.

Then again, maybe apologizing doesn’t do anything. Melky Cabrera lied about his use. He admitted it — a lot sooner than just about any other PED user — and he’s widely hated in the media and game right now.

The only guys I can think of that have some modest level of redemption or respect at this point are Andy Pettitte and Jason Giambi. But Giambi’s use was exposed before anyone else’s, so maybe it’s just that enough time has gone by in his case.

With regard to the rumors Chuck heard about current HOFers not showing up should a user get elected, I find it hard to have a problem with that. To be fair to John, maybe they are hypocrites. But maybe it’s also fair for the current members to protest a player that will receive the game’s greatest honor, but did questionable things on the road to get it.

Damn that was a good post Raul. All true, I did not consider that users might be enabled if forgiven & inducted (if good enough clean). I think likely if we both increase penalties & keep the social opprobrium on users, this possible effect will be negated.

but you are right about what could have been for the greats, & how opinions vary on admitted cheaters. Much of this is encouraging, since folks can be discerning about degree of usage & sincerity of admissions. Petitte has much good will for his integrity,& kindness, & his usage seemed like no big game changer, pardon the pun. Not so on either account for Clemens.

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