List of Released Dream World Pokemon Mark II

Not really that noteworthy, five is a pretty small data size and nowhere near accurate for results. For reference, fire/fighting got me both 2 and 3 out of five in separate instances. And although this was before Icy Cave (Though I doubt it'd skew the odds this case), Poison/Bug was effectively half visits to Forest. It's easier to get exceptions with lower results.

I'd say that Manor and Cave are close enough to say that preferences are equal. I may do another attempt later though, just to try and get Manor and Cave to be closer together.

If you want to go to the Manor use Ghost.

I'm going to try and compare other types to see if there are any other examples of some types being superior to other types in terms of taking you to a particular area:

Mountain: Fire/Fighting
Forest: Grass/Bug/Poison/Electric

Not much point doing any of the other areas since they only have one corresponding type (excluding things like Steel of course).

@ Xui: Yeah 4/5 doesn't really mean that much. Aside from the reasons MB Espeon stated, there is also the issue of your proportions being affected by just 1 result. For example, you have 80% Manor. If the next visit was Forest, you would suddenly have 66% Manor. If you want to test it again make sure you get more results (aim for at least 50, but the more results you get the more accurate you'll be).

If I had to guess, I actually think that Ghost/Dark will boost Manor to a percentage that is less than pure Ghost but more than pure Dark. Just a guess though. It could very well be higher than or equal to pure Ghost for all I know.

Actually the point of my post was the idea of using a dual type with both types leading to the same location, obviously 5 tries isn't enough data but before that post I'd had no idea anyone was even testing any of this. That example was just me noting that at least my first observation wasn't a failure.

Over the last few days, I've been doing tests with Fire and Fighting types to see if there is a difference between them in regards to the rate at which they take you to the mountain. These are the results:

So I think that both types boost it to around 50% (i.e. neither is better). Fighting IS slightly higher but the difference is small, so just pick whatever you want if you want to go to the Mountain.

So now I'm gonna do the same thing with the Forest types. For all I know it may be that the Manor types are the only types where differences exist. We'll see.

Click to expand...

Fighting is higher in the sample. A different sample could get a higher value for Fire. It's like you got a "low damage row" for Fire and a "high dame row" for Fighting.
As you will check which type is better for each area, let's put some statiscs theory on it:
I performed a hypotesis test (google it ^^) for your Fire x Fighting data and got a p-value of 0.286, which statiscally means the proportions are the same. So, just confirming, what you said: neither is better. I won't go into further details, but a p-value around 0.05 or less is needed in order to be nearly sure the proportions are different.
Ghost x Dark (for manor) gets a p-value of 0.00006, which statiscally means Ghost and Dark get different proportions (so, Ghost is better). Dark x Psychic gets p-value of 0.656 (thus, they are equal).

lol, yes I know what p-values and the null hypothesis are. You wouldn't believe how much I've had to go over that stuff at uni...

For those who don't understand that stuff, the null hypothesis states that there is no difference between what you are comparing. You use a statistical test to obtain a p-value, which represents the probability that you would get your observed findings IF THE NULL HYPOTHESIS IS TRUE. So when champz compared Ghost and Dark, he got a p-value of 0.00006. This basically means that the probability of me getting the findings I got is very, very small if the null hypothesis is true (which would state no difference between Ghost and Dark). It's so small that we can reject the null hypothesis and state that there is, in fact, a difference between them.

So yeah, I COULD have performed a t-test or something (you never said which test you used specifically, but since you are basically comparing means I would guess you used some sort of t-test) but, well, I was just being lazy haha. Plus I would have to reteach myself how to use one of the many stats programs at my uni. It's been a while...

Still, thanks for doing that and it's nice to have actual stats backing up what I found!

In the statistics department, 50% for electric versus 70% for grass is an evident difference, but just to give a statistics backup, p-value = 0.0000000 (no surprises at all)

Just for information, I performed a F-test for 2 proportions (test often used for binomials), aided by a software. An aproximation by normal distribuition can be used (so a software isn't necessary) by the formula below:

If |z| < 1.64 then a positive z means that the first sample has higher value. If z is negative, the second sample is higher.
For those who want more detail, p-value = 2 * P(Z > |z|), where P(Z > |z|) comes from normal (0,1) probability distribuition. Please keep in mind that these aren't the exact values, but work very well when the proportions are at range of ~5% to ~95%. It's more than enough for our needs here.
From now on, I will use the normal aproximation instead of the F-test.

I also got a very interesting result when comparing Mountain and Cave for steel types ( http://www.smogon.com/forums/showpost.php?p=4295044&postcount=1172 ):
Mountain (steel) x Cave (steel): z = -1.92 (p-value = 0.055), which means that Steel benefits both Mountain and Cave (we already knew that), but there is a chance that it prefers the Cave more than the Mountain. More data is required in order to be sure though (I guess there are more posts with steel results, but I didn't have time to look for it)

More and more interesting. Adding your data to Lrrr's, we get interesting results:
Cave: 264 of 693 (38%)
Mountain: 228 of 693 (32%)
This gives us z = 2.02 (p-value of 0.043). Moreover, the exact test gives a p-value of 0.049. The numbers doesn't help very much (very close to boundaries), but I would bet that even though Steel prefers both Cave and Mountain, it prefers more the Cave than the Mountain. Let's say Steel prefers Cave but takes Mountain as a second option. More data would give a more satisfying result, but as the 'new' data lowered the p-value, I believe they get different proportions.
Also added Golett to the list of missing.

Hmmm well it isn't as high as Grass, but I'm thinking of getting a bit more data for this just to see if it is 50% or 60% (or 55%?).

For now, I'd sum everything up like this:

Forest - use Grass
Sky - use Flying
Sea - use Water
Manor - use Ghost
Mountain - use Fire or Fighting
Cave - use Ice

champz, if you are interested in looking at Steel, Rock and Ground then I'm willing to get the data if you'd like. It probably isn't that important (not sure why people would use these types unless they just happen to want to go to both Cave and Mountain equally or something) but it is interesting how they might not have the same proportions.

champz, if you are interested in looking at Steel, Rock and Ground then I'm willing to get the data if you'd like. It probably isn't that important (not sure why people would use these types unless they just happen to want to go to both Cave and Mountain equally or something) but it is interesting how they might not have the same proportions.

Click to expand...

Yeah, it's not THAT important (maybe not important at all). If it's not taking too much time, it would be interesting to know just for curiosity (or, for perfectionists, to get full data). But it's not necessary.

Now, I'm wondering what type takes to NOT go to the sky xD (PS: I'm joking).

Well, it does help a lot. For this recent data we get z = 2.22 (p-value = 0.027). I'm convinced Steel prefers Cave more than Mountain, although it prefers Mountain over the other areas (obviously excluding the Cave).
So, for Steel, Cave > Mountain > other areas. Still Ice is better for Cave and Fire or Fight is better for Mountain (I'll performe tests later to make sure though).

Got new things today (it's so good to have more than 10k dream points, so I can skip most mini games xD )

Hide(Move your mouse to the hide area to reveal the content)Show HideHide Hide

- Female Axew with Night Slash
- Duosion with Recover

Missing list:

Hide(Move your mouse to the hide area to reveal the content)Show HideHide Hide

Normal and Dragon probabily prefers all areas equally
For Steels, Cave > Mountain > other areas (confirmed)
For Rock, Cave = Mountain > other areas
For Ground, Cave > or = Mountain > other areas
I didn't analyse yet if Steel, Ground and Rock get the same preference or if one is better than other, so I assumed the same for now. I also didn't analyse if the are really worse the Fire or Fight in the Mountain or Ice in the Cave, even though everything points they are. It's possible to analyse it later.
Any analysis now is not very important (but it's curious ^^), as atsync's rule is confirmed: for better results, for Forest use Grass, for Sky use Flying, for Sea use Water, for Manor use Ghost, for Mountain use Fire or Fight and for Cave use Ice. A monotype pokémon is better, maybe excepet for the Mountain where Fire/Fight probably get the same, but not better, results.

I don't think anyone ever actually tested a pure Water type in this thread, but dual Water types were tested. I did a Slowbro test and it favoured Sea and Manor. Since Psychic favours Manor, the only option for Water is Sea. Based on how Slowbro favoured Sea more than Manor, it is likely that Water increases Sea to 70% (since Psychic goes to 50%). Maybe someone SHOULD test it though just in case...

Monotypes are almost done once Rock and Ground are sorted for certain. But yeah there is so much more we could test, even if it is mostly extra stuff for interest's sake.

For Dual-types we know that both areas will be preferred, and that the proportions of the two areas depend on the individual rates of the types used. For example, Jynx prefers Sea more than Manor because Ice has a bigger effect on Cave's rate than Psychic has on Manor's rate (70% vs. 50%). The only thing we don't know for certain is how much the rates decrease for dual types. Are they halved to 35% and 25% in this case, or do they decrease by a different amount (like a third or a quarter or something)?

Yes, I'd also like to see how pokemon with 2 types that favour the same area act (e.g. Fire/Fighting). If the rate for their preferred area was to increase then pokemon like that would be even better than monotypes!

Also, what about pokemon that favour THREE types? I did one test with Ferroseed (who favours Forest, Cave and Mountain) and found that all areas were increased, though I have no idea about how the rates are affected.

Finally, I'd like to get some confirmation about Dragon and Normal types with a secondary type, since that hasn't been done a whole lot. Does the other type override the Dragon/Normal type and act similarly to a pure type, or does the Dragon/Normal type cause the effect of the other type to be decreased a bit? This would actually be something good to look at, because pure Flying types are so rare, and if Dragon/Flying types and Normal/Flying types acted the same way as a pure Flying type then they would be good alternatives for those who don't have Sky Plate Arceus (the only pure flying type legal on the DW at the moment).

I didn't add this new (rock) data to the old ones, but I tested it alone. z = 0.91 (p-value = 0.363). For the third time, results suggests that Rock, unlike Steel, get the same proportions for both Cave and Mountain. I guess it's enough for a veredict.

For dual types I bet that the proportions just get the simple average between the two types. That would be slightly higher than half for each individual type. Just a hunch though (I didn't test nor analyzed). Sableye or Spiritomb would be interesting to test as a result around 55% for manor would confirm this. Also Blaziken/Infernape/Emobar would be VERY interesting, as if my hunch is right, they would get the same results for mono Fire and mono Fight.

For Dragons and Normal, I'm wondering if they get exactly same proportion (statistically speaking) or if they prefer one area slightly than others. Let's say for example, does Normal has 20% for Forest and 16% for other areas or 16.67% for each area?

Dragon data we have some problems: the first data is previous to Ice Cave and the second is very short. Anyway, this is the least important data so, it's better to check it later.

I'm short on time right now, but I will perform more hypotesis tests for the current data later.

edit: Female Basculin-Blue

Hide(Move your mouse to the hide area to reveal the content)Show HideHide Hide