Rain, wind to jostle with sunshine

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If you thought it was a little on the damp side in the lower North Island, you'd be right - six times more rain has fallen since this New Year's Day than last year's.

But despite the extremely unsettled start to 2014, forecasters are predicting a big high looming under Australia will touch down mid this month and return summer to its throne for those under a cloud.

"It's been hinting at trying to improve," said MetService forecaster Daniel Corbett.

"Since Christmas you could probably count on two hands (and you'd run out of fingers) the number of weather systems we've had - two lows, quite a few active troughs, it's been more spring-like. The longer-term trend is trying to hint at things improving but Mother Nature, it's almost like she's having a bit of a bad hair day, she's having a bit of a tizzy.

Corbett said the highs were trying to build in, and would probably do so in the coming weeks.

"For example this week, by next weekend there is a high that slowly starts to ease towards us, but the next weather system after today's gorgeous day, tomorrow we look at a new weather system come into the west coast of the country, that brings us some rain here in Wellington as we run through the following days.

''The front pushes across on Tuesday evening, and it's not as mean and as nasty as some of the ones of the last few days in sense of wind. It's just another weather system. And that clears through and then it goes cooler and fresher with a southwesterly through Wednesday and Thursday and it will be brighter but there still might be some showers to come in particular through Thursday and maybe Friday.

"The high wants to try come in perhaps towards the later parts of the weekend, but it's almost like it's scared to dip its toes in the water. That is the trend, but these lows in the jetstream are still fairly active feeding in these weather systems so it's a bit like Mother Nature walking down the garden path, but instead of doing a straight line she's wiggling back and forth.

''So we're slowly trending towards these anti-cyclones which bring us a fine, long day.

""The longer term trend over the next couple of weeks is for more of the anti-cyclones to return, but Mother Nature is just being a bit stubborn at the moment, but we're going to get there eventually.

"Sometimes it's just a case of what Mother Nature does and how she throws the mix of weather systems - instead of saying 'have one a week' she says 'have seven or eight', and we've just been in a more unsettled pattern and it's been more spring-like especially when you get those damaging winds around the region like we saw on Friday."