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The presidential campaign has reignited the debate over Social Security and its trust fund, with defenders claiming it is the best and safest retirement plan in the world and critics asserting it is little more than a Ponzi scheme. Given certain government statements, the smart money may be on Ponzi.

The Ponzi scheme is named after convicted money swindler Charles Ponzi, whose investment schemes in 1920 made him millions—until it all collapsed, costing others millions. The federal government’s Security and Exchange Commission (SEC) helpfully explains the scam:

A Ponzi scheme is an investment fraud that involves the payment of purported returns to existing investors from funds contributed by new investors. Ponzi scheme organizers often solicit new investors by promising to invest funds in opportunities claimed to generate high returns with little or no risk. In many Ponzi schemes, the fraudsters focus on attracting new money to make promised payments to earlier-stage investors and to use for personal expenses, instead of engaging in any legitimate investment activity. … With little or no legitimate earnings, the schemes require a consistent flow of money from new investors to continue. Ponzi schemes tend to collapse when it becomes difficult to recruit new investors or when a large number of investors ask to cash out.

The scheme can work only as long as more and more people pay into the system, or until the public knows the truth. Early investors can make out like bandits, while the later investors are robbed.

That’s pretty much how Social Security works. Of course, Social Security doesn’t have to “solicit new investors”; federal law requires the vast majority of Americans to be an “investor.” But even that won’t save the system. Fewer workers are paying in—a new report looking at Labor Department data claims that only 1.75 full-time workers are supporting each retiree—as the baby boomers retire and more retirees are demanding their cash (retirement benefits). That trend has created a $21.4 trillion unfunded liability in Social Security, according to USA Today.

And though the Social Security Administration doesn’t promise high returns—one of Ponzi’s major schemes promised a 50 percent return after 45 days—it does promise little or no risk. Well, sort of.

The agency sends regular statements to workers reviewing their income history and projecting their expected monthly benefits at retirement. Which sounds pretty safe and secure … except for the asterisks highlighting the fine print, which reads:

“Your estimated benefits are based on current law. Congress has made changes to the law in the past and can do so at any time. The law covering benefit amounts may change because, by 2037, the payroll taxes collected will be enough only to pay about 76 percent of scheduled benefits.”

How many people would open a retirement savings account in a bank that told them they might only receive 76 cents for every dollar they invested?

And then there’s that part in the SEC definition about the fraudsters taking investors’ contributions “to use for personal expenses, instead of engaging in any legitimate investment activity.” That’s where the real public policy disagreement lies.