Jarome Iginla Now and Going Forward

During the weekend open thread, I asked everyone to envision what the team might look like in 3 years absent many of the longtime mainstays like Jarome Iginla and Miikka Kiprusoff. The question of Iginla’s future with the club will continue to grow as the year progresses and we near the completion of his current contract.

No doubt a large contingent of the fan base will agitate to re-sign Iggy sooner rather than later and for whatever it is he wants to get paid – he is, after all, the face of the franchise and the best forward to ever lace up the skates for the Calgary Flames. Jarome has been the guy around which the franchise has has built in earnest since he was 19 years old and the club’s leading scorer for a decade. For many, the thought of a Calgary Flames team lacking Jarome is therefore abominable.

I have been unhappily battling against this sentiment for a couple of summers now. In 2010, I wrote about Iginla’s decline. Last summer, I put together a threepartseries detailing his continued struggles, while they are inevitable and what the franchise should think to do about it.

Let’s put aside for a moment the fact that Iginla leaving the Flames some day is inetivable: either because he signs elsewhere or retires. No one plays forever. For the purposes of this excercise, we’ll assume the team has the option to re-sign their captain in perpetuity, until his legs fall off or the owners finally lock-out the players forever. The question is – should the team re-sign Iginla? And if so, for how much?

Before we proceed let me note at the outset that this is not an exercise in "hate" nor an attempt to punitively run the captain out of town. Iginla is one of my favorite athletes of all time. I consider myself lucky to have witnessed his incredible career here in Calgary.

This is simply my attempt to analyze and answer a couple of questions as ruthlessly and honestly as possible:

1.) How good a player is Iginla now?

2.) And how good is he likely to be near in the future?

Given the state of the team and the impending end of Iginla’s current deal, these are the essential issues management needs to wrestle with. Jarome’s storied past and wealth of accomplishments are fixed and unchanging going forwarded – to be celebrated and respected, for sure – but they aren’t necessarily indicators of the quality of player he is currently or will be a few years down the road.

Iginla WOWY

"WOWY" or With or Without You is a useful statistical tool for teasing apart the effect one player is having on his linemates. Thanks to David Johnson’s Hockey Analysis site, this inquiry is easier to do than ever. I have filtered the results from the link a bit to clarify things:

With Iginla

Without Iginla

Player

TOI

CF

CF/20

CA

CA/20

CF%

TOI

CF

CF/20

CA

CA/20

CF%

OLLI JOKINEN

645:16:00

520

16.117

675

20.922

0.435

518:50:00

458

17.655

492

18.966

0.482

JAY BOUWMEESTER

621:50:00

486

15.631

692

22.257

0.413

932:58:00

781

16.742

804

17.235

0.493

ALEX TANGUAY

574:28:00

507

17.651

613

21.342

0.453

284:41:00

217

15.245

254

17.844

0.461

CHRIS BUTLER

477:43:00

380

15.909

530

22.189

0.418

713:47:00

633

17.736

645

18.073

0.495

CURTIS GLENCROSS

423:33:00

338

15.96

434

20.493

0.438

448:02:00

396

17.677

428

19.106

0.481

SCOTT HANNAN

408:36:00

321

15.712

449

21.977

0.417

883:07:00

693

15.694

811

18.367

0.461

MARK GIORDANO

341:36:00

283

16.569

351

20.55

0.446

657:13:00

580

17.65

591

17.985

0.495

CORY SARICH

254:32:00

221

17.365

199

15.636

0.526

654:06:00

557

17.031

541

16.542

0.507

DEREK SMITH

196:13:00

186

18.959

204

20.793

0.477

456:37:00

365

15.987

401

17.564

0.477

MIKE CAMMALLERI

184:24:00

166

18.004

187

20.282

0.47

706:15:00

588

16.651

669

18.945

0.468

TJ BRODIE

181:20:00

159

17.537

144

15.882

0.525

586:35:00

506

17.252

480

16.366

0.513

MIKAEL BACKLUND

175:48:00

167

18.999

177

20.137

0.485

350:58:00

313

17.836

290

16.526

0.519

MATT STAJAN

167:49:00

150

17.877

158

18.83

0.487

517:29:00

454

17.546

443

17.121

0.506

The table shows anyone on the Flames who played 100+ minutes with Iginla last year. On the left, we have shot/corsi results when both players were on the ice together. The right hand side shows how each guy did without Jarome. I have added bold and italics to each player whose outshooting improved sans Iginla.

The ratios (CF%) are the total shots for/against at even strength, an expression of puck possession in the offensive zone. In the NHL, 0.50 is about average and typically the minimum for what every coach shoots for when he is matching lines and setting his roster. It means his line is giving as good as it getting at 5on5.

Nine of Iginla’s 13 more regular linemates improved when apart from him – some of them significantly. Jay Bouwmeester and Chris Butler went from getting their heads beat in (41.8% and 43.5%), to nearly treading water (48.2% and 49.5%).

Only two players of the 13 actually saw their numbers go up when skating with Iggy: Corey Sarich and TJ Brodie. We can assume that is an effect of competition quality and zone starts since Sarich and Brodie were mostly third pairing/bottom of the rotation options for Brent Sutter last year. It’s a fair bet during those minutes that Iginla was facing nobodies and probably starting more often in the offensive zone as a result.

To be fair to the captain, there’s no doubt he saw some of the heavisest sledding last year and playing with him meant seeing the other team’s best players. You can bet that accounts for at least some of the improvement for guys like Backlund and Stajan who were probably playing against some lesser lights when not skating with Iginla.

That said, even all the regular high-end duties guys saw their shots ratios go down with Jarome. Glencross and Jokinen were consistently matched against other team’s good players both with and without Iggy and their ratios went up in his absence. Ditto Bouwmeester and Butler.

Also distubring isn’t just the general shift towards better results without the captain, but the fact with him on the ice the club’s possession consistently sits below that mediocre 50% mark. A fifty/fifty split in possession isn’t even in the "good" territory when it comes to controlling play as a forward. Anything around 45% or lower means the team is losing the territorial battle handily with said player on the ice.

Iginla Versus The Big Guns

Hockey Analysis also allows us to see how Iginla fared against other skaters in the league. This sort of inquiry will give us an indication how the Flames controlled play against specfic competition when Jarome was one the ice last year.

The following table contains the 29 skaters against whom Iginla spent at least 30 minutes of ice time against in 2012-13:

Player

TOI

CF

CA

differential

CF%

MARC-EDOUARD VLASIC

48:06:00

41

48

-7

0.461

NIKITA NIKITIN

47:38:00

31

39

-8

0.443

STEPHANE ROBIDAS

47:36:00

45

46

-1

0.495

LADISLAV SMID

47:22:00

41

52

-11

0.441

DANY HEATLEY

44:30:00

48

47

1

0.505

OLIVER EKMAN-LARSSON

44:01:00

22

49

-27

0.31

DREW DOUGHTY

43:54:00

27

53

-26

0.338

RYAN SUTER

42:49:00

42

43

-1

0.494

ROB SCUDERI

42:48:00

26

47

-21

0.356

DAN HAMHUIS

41:05:00

32

36

-4

0.471

RYAN O’REILLY

40:46:00

30

39

-9

0.435

IAN WHITE

40:30:00

29

46

-17

0.387

NICKLAS LIDSTROM

38:58:00

29

47

-18

0.382

GABRIEL LANDESKOG

38:50:00

34

40

-6

0.459

JEFF PETRY

38:13:00

28

47

-19

0.373

DEVIN SETOGUCHI

37:38:00

33

42

-9

0.44

JAN HEJDA

36:39:00

34

34

0

0.5

DAVID BACKES

36:24:00

25

46

-21

0.352

MATT CULLEN

36:01:00

32

37

-5

0.464

ALEX PIETRANGELO

36:00:00

19

40

-21

0.322

KEVIN BIEKSA

35:37:00

28

35

-7

0.444

MARCO SCANDELLA

35:12:00

38

29

9

0.567

RAY WHITNEY

34:53:00

14

42

-28

0.25

SAM GAGNER

34:53:00

27

40

-13

0.403

TOM GILBERT

33:55:00

29

37

-8

0.439

RYAN O’BYRNE

33:45:00

29

27

2

0.518

JARED SPURGEON

33:42:00

45

27

18

0.625

HENRIK SEDIN

33:41:00

18

32

-14

0.36

DANIEL WINNIK

33:37:00

17

31

-14

0.354

FRANCOIS BEAUCHEMIN

33:24:00

23

32

-9

0.418

DUNCAN KEITH

33:19:00

34

38

-4

0.472

NIKLAS BACKSTROM

33:18:00

29

30

-1

0.492

SHAWN HORCOFF

33:10:00

20

38

-18

0.345

PATRICK MARLEAU

33:04:00

27

36

-9

0.429

ANZE KOPITAR

32:07:00

22

41

-19

0.349

MICHAL ROZSIVAL

32:04:00

15

45

-30

0.25

DAN BOYLE

31:58:00

25

27

-2

0.481

RYAN SMYTH

31:20:00

18

36

-18

0.333

JORDAN EBERLE

31:20:00

29

34

-5

0.46

TJ OSHIE

31:00:00

22

29

-7

0.431

ANTOINE VERMETTE

30:54:00

22

24

-2

0.478

ALEX BURROWS

30:45:00

14

33

-19

0.298

DUSTIN BROWN

30:29:00

22

40

-18

0.355

FEDOR TYUTIN

30:29:00

16

27

-11

0.372

BOBBY RYAN

30:27:00

14

35

-21

0.286

NICK SCHULTZ

30:22:00

30

25

5

0.545

JUSTIN WILLIAMS

30:07:00

18

39

-21

0.316

Total

1293

1787

-494

0.420

It’s a long list with a lot of good players on it. Only in four cases (highlighted above) did Iginla come out on top of the total shots ratio: Marco Scandella, Jared Spurgeon, Nick Shultz, Dany Heatley. Not coincidentally, all four of those guys are Minnesota Wild, one of the very worst teams in the league last year at controlling play.

At the bottom, I have totaled the Flames total shots for and against at even strength for this sample. It show that the team was nearly 500 shots (!) in the red with Iginla skating against this collection of other team’s top-end skaters.

In other words, Calgary managed just 42% of the total shots with Iggy on the ice against these folks. He was especially dominated by guys like David Backes (35.2%), Sam Gagner (40.3%), Henrik Sedin (36.0%), Anze Kopitar (34.9%), Dustin Brown (35.5%), Ryan Smith (33.3%), Bobby Ryan (28.6%) and even Daniel Winnik (35.4%).

To make things a little more explicit, I pulled out the various defenders and put together the list of opposition forwards:

Player

TOI

CF

CA

differential

CF%

DANY HEATLEY

44:30:00

48

47

1

0.505

RYAN O’REILLY

40:46:00

30

39

-9

0.435

GABRIEL LANDESKOG

38:50:00

34

40

-6

0.459

DEVIN SETOGUCHI

37:38:00

33

42

-9

0.44

DAVID BACKES

36:24:00

25

46

-21

0.352

MATT CULLEN

36:01:00

32

37

-5

0.464

RAY WHITNEY

34:53:00

14

42

-28

0.25

SAM GAGNER

34:53:00

27

40

-13

0.403

HENRIK SEDIN

33:41:00

18

32

-14

0.36

DANIEL WINNIK

33:37:00

17

31

-14

0.354

SHAWN HORCOFF

33:10:00

20

38

-18

0.345

PATRICK MARLEAU

33:04:00

27

36

-9

0.429

ANZE KOPITAR

32:07:00

22

41

-19

0.349

RYAN SMYTH

31:20:00

18

36

-18

0.333

JORDAN EBERLE

31:20:00

29

34

-5

0.46

TJ OSHIE

31:00:00

22

29

-7

0.431

ANTOINE VERMETTE

30:54:00

22

24

-2

0.478

ALEX BURROWS

30:45:00

14

33

-19

0.298

DUSTIN BROWN

30:29:00

22

40

-18

0.355

BOBBY RYAN

30:27:00

14

35

-21

0.286

JUSTIN WILLIAMS

30:07:00

18

39

-21

0.316

Total

506

781

-275

0.393

That cuts us down to 21 names and the list of guys Iginla was in the black against to just Dany Heatley (by a single shot). In sum, this group outshot Jarome by over 275 shots on net and controlled the puck over 60% of the time at even strength against him.

That’s a very steep hill to climb for the Flames and is particularly noteworthy because it’s not like they are yielding ground to the Johnny Stonehands of the world in this sample. Many of these guys are the best players on their respective teams, meaning the oppositions top-end is spending a lot more time at the Flames end of the ice when they are matched against Iginla these days

Implications

This is all very much in line with the decline in Iginla’s general effectiveness which I began to chart in 2010. A couple of seasons ago, he was merely average at controlling play and lagged behind many of his peers in terms of stature and pay across the league. Now, Iginla has entered liability territory at even strength – he consitently yields shots and possession against while he’s on the ice and almost universally pulls down his linemates ability to control play as well.

No doubt some will ask what the value of a shot/possssion based inquiry is when Jarome is still scoring 30+ goals and 60+ points per year. I’ll respond with a metaphor –

When a coach gives a player ice time, it is essentially an "invesment" in the player. The potential profit is shots/chances/goals for. The potential expense is shots/chances/goals against. The goal is to have the profit margin exceed the expenses as often as possible and in aggregate.

There are some factors that can help overcome a negative shot differential so that the most important line item – "goals" – remains in the black. Specifically, high SH% and SV% can help mititgate possession issues. Of course, skaters only exert modest influence over those things and they are mostly swamped by issues of randomness and variance.

Meaning – to overcome Jarome’s issues of volume (shots/chances against) Calgary will need to control the frequency of goals (the percentages) to a non-trivial degree ir order to come out even or above water. And even though Alex Tanguay is one of the few skaters who can probably amp his linemates shooting by about 1% above normal, the truth is it would take a season of extraordinary luck (well above average percentages) for Iginla’s ice time not to cost the club dearly in terms of goal differential.

To get back to the inital question – Iginla can likely continue to put up 30+ goals and 60+ points in the next few years if the team keeps giving him a lot of ice time. The issue is, Jarome’s an asset now in the red; his ice time (and therefore production) costs the team shots, possession, chances and goals against. And it will likely continue to do so more and more now that he has crested 35 years old.

Conclusion

None of this means Iginla is worthless and must be immediately sent to the glue factory. He’s iconic in the city and invaluable to the Flames marketing department. He carries a lot of weight and respect with other players and youngsters. He is highly competitive and still has a great release and shot, so is dangerous in particular circumstances. As a third line, PP option Jarome would probably still be a boon to most clubs in the NHL.

What it does mean is simply that Iginla isn’t the player he was when he was 28. It means the team can’t continue to deploy him as a top-line, power vs power option and pretend it’s making a meaningful dash for the post-season. And in evaluating the club’s needs and his upcoming free agency, the Flames have to properly assess where Jarome is in his career, how he is likely to continue to age and decline and weigh that accordingly with potential trade options or salary demands.

37 Comments |

The problem with sliding Iginla down the depth chart is that it only works if you have better available options to be placed ahead of him.

I think one of Kent’s concerns with the Flames is that there are no heirs to that kind of ice time and role. If Iginla plays behind Cammalleri or Stempniak what does it mean for the kind of competition that they will be facing and the results that would follow?

Selanne could move back because Getzlaf, Perry and Ryan are/were so dominant that they would force the opposing team to match their best players against them.

I’m not saying they shouldn’t re-sign him, but part of facing the facts of Iginla’s declining abilities is that the team hasn’t been able to groom any kind of replacement player.

We’ll have to see how things shake out this season, but it could be a very telling one.

Some perspective. The best player in Flames history before Jarome was Lanny McDonald, and when I say best, his ability was complimented by his leadership and his popularity in the community.

At the age of 35, Lanny was far from being a first line RW. Ahead of him on the depth chart were Joey Mullen, Hakan Loob and Colin Patterson. He competed for 4th line time with Mark Hunter, then a rookie named Theoren Fleury and ended the year with 11 goals – on a team that scored 354 !

Brendan Shanahan is a close comparable. He was a top 6 forward on a deep veteran Detroit squad – one that had 5 possibly 6 future HOFer’s. Shanahan scored 25 goals and had 28 assists that year.

The only player to score 50 goals at age 35 was Johnny Bucyk on the 70-71 Bruins (4 HOf er’s including Bucyk)- a team that scored a new record of 399 goals. If Calgary scores even 60% of that level (240) they would be fortunate – so a 30 goal season by Jarome would be just about the same as the Chief’s 51 in 71.

I’m curious how far back we can go to create these WOWYs. I’d like to see if we can locate the point in time when things started to go downhill for Iggy.

I remember a time, long ago, when Iginla was a power forward with a decent two-way game that – gasp! – killed penalties. I presume based only on those nostalgic memories that his Corsi would be respectable and we’d see that he was driving play in the right direction.

Flash forward to today and that’s clearly no longer the case. When in those intervening 6-8 years did things start to turn the corner? Was it a combination of age and all those miles on his body catching up with him? Was it a change in his style of play?

I’m hopeful the numbers were only really this bad when Brent Sutter was behind the bench indicating a change in coaching philosophy might squeeze a few more productive seasons out of Iggy.