New poll: Sharp drop in support for $15 an hour minimum wage

A new poll of 400 Seattle voters, taken last week, shows a sharp drop in support for a $15-an-hour minimum wage, just as Seattle Mayor Ed Murray is preparing to send a recommendation to the Seattle City Council.

The survey by Portland-based DHM asked voters if they would favor increasing the minimum wage to $15 an hour in 2015, with a phase-in for small businesses and non-profits with 10 or fewer employees.

Forty-seven percent said they would support such a wage with 48 percent opposed. A similar poll by the same firm in January showed a 68-25 percent margin in support.

Seattle city council member-elect Kshama Sawant speaks at Seattle City Hall during a rally and march to make $15 the minimum wage in Seattle. The marchers started in SeaTac, the city where a voter initiative to pay workers a minimum of $15 per hour just passed. Photographed on Thursday, December 5, 2013. (Joshua Trujillo, seattlepi.com) less

Seattle city council member-elect Kshama Sawant speaks at Seattle City Hall during a rally and march to make $15 the minimum wage in Seattle. The marchers started in SeaTac, the city where a voter initiative ... more

Photo: JOSHUA TRUJILLO / SEATTLEPI.COM

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People gather at Seattle City Hall during a rally and march to make $15 the minimum wage in Seattle. The marchers started in SeaTac, the city where a voter initiative to pay workers a minimum of $15 per hour just passed. Photographed on Thursday, December 5, 2013. (Joshua Trujillo, seattlepi.com) less

People gather at Seattle City Hall during a rally and march to make $15 the minimum wage in Seattle. The marchers started in SeaTac, the city where a voter initiative to pay workers a minimum of $15 per hour ... more

Photo: JOSHUA TRUJILLO / SEATTLEPI.COM

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People gather at Seattle City Hall during a rally and march to make $15 the minimum wage in Seattle. The marchers started in SeaTac, the city where a voter initiative to pay workers a minimum of $15 per hour just passed. Photographed on Thursday, December 5, 2013. (Joshua Trujillo, seattlepi.com) less

People gather at Seattle City Hall during a rally and march to make $15 the minimum wage in Seattle. The marchers started in SeaTac, the city where a voter initiative to pay workers a minimum of $15 per hour ... more

Photo: JOSHUA TRUJILLO / SEATTLEPI.COM

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Seattle city council member Mike O'Brien speaks at Seattle City Hall during a rally and march to make $15 the minimum wage in Seattle. The marchers started in SeaTac, the city where a voter initiative to pay workers a minimum of $15 per hour just passed. Photographed on Thursday, December 5, 2013. (Joshua Trujillo, seattlepi.com) less

Seattle city council member Mike O'Brien speaks at Seattle City Hall during a rally and march to make $15 the minimum wage in Seattle. The marchers started in SeaTac, the city where a voter initiative to pay ... more

Photo: JOSHUA TRUJILLO / SEATTLEPI.COM

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People gather at Seattle City Hall during a rally and march to make $15 the minimum wage in Seattle. The marchers started in SeaTac, the city where a voter initiative to pay workers a minimum of $15 per hour just passed. Photographed on Thursday, December 5, 2013. (Joshua Trujillo, seattlepi.com) less

People gather at Seattle City Hall during a rally and march to make $15 the minimum wage in Seattle. The marchers started in SeaTac, the city where a voter initiative to pay workers a minimum of $15 per hour ... more

Photo: JOSHUA TRUJILLO / SEATTLEPI.COM

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Seattle city council member-elect Kshama Sawant speaks at Seattle City Hall during a rally and march to make $15 the minimum wage in Seattle. The marchers started in SeaTac, the city where a voter initiative to pay workers a minimum of $15 per hour just passed. Photographed on Thursday, December 5, 2013. (Joshua Trujillo, seattlepi.com) less

Seattle city council member-elect Kshama Sawant speaks at Seattle City Hall during a rally and march to make $15 the minimum wage in Seattle. The marchers started in SeaTac, the city where a voter initiative ... more

Photo: JOSHUA TRUJILLO / SEATTLEPI.COM

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Fast food workers, labor organizers and other workers march past fast food restaurants on Pacific Highway South in Tukwila, Wash. The marchers are asking for a minimum wage of $15 per hour. The march, heading for Seattle, started in SeaTac, the city where a voter initiative to pay workers a minimum of $15 per hour just passed. Photographed on Thursday, December 5, 2013. (Joshua Trujillo, seattlepi.com) less

Fast food workers, labor organizers and other workers march past fast food restaurants on Pacific Highway South in Tukwila, Wash. The marchers are asking for a minimum wage of $15 per hour. The march, heading ... more

Photo: JOSHUA TRUJILLO / SEATTLEPI.COM

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Fast food workers, labor organizers and other workers march on International Boulevard in SeaTac. The marchers are asking for a minimum wage of $15 per hour. The march, heading for Seattle, started in SeaTac, the city where a voter initiative to pay workers a minimum of $15 per hour just passed. Photographed on Thursday, December 5, 2013. (Joshua Trujillo, seattlepi.com) less

Fast food workers, labor organizers and other workers march on International Boulevard in SeaTac. The marchers are asking for a minimum wage of $15 per hour. The march, heading for Seattle, started in SeaTac, ... more

Photo: JOSHUA TRUJILLO / SEATTLEPI.COM

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Fast food workers, labor organizers and other workers prepare to march on International Boulevard in SeaTac. The marchers are asking for a minimum wage of $15 per hour. The march, heading for Seattle, started in SeaTac, the city where a voter initiative to pay workers a minimum of $15 per hour just passed. Photographed on Thursday, December 5, 2013. (Joshua Trujillo, seattlepi.com) less

Fast food workers, labor organizers and other workers prepare to march on International Boulevard in SeaTac. The marchers are asking for a minimum wage of $15 per hour. The march, heading for Seattle, started ... more

Photo: JOSHUA TRUJILLO / SEATTLEPI.COM

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Fast food workers, labor organizers and other workers march on International Boulevard in SeaTac. The marchers are asking for a minimum wage of $15 per hour. The march, heading for Seattle, started in SeaTac, the city where a voter initiative to pay workers a minimum of $15 per hour just passed. Photographed on Thursday, December 5, 2013. (Joshua Trujillo, seattlepi.com) less

Fast food workers, labor organizers and other workers march on International Boulevard in SeaTac. The marchers are asking for a minimum wage of $15 per hour. The march, heading for Seattle, started in SeaTac, ... more

Photo: JOSHUA TRUJILLO / SEATTLEPI.COM

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Fast food workers, labor organizers and other workers march past fast food restaurants on Pacific Highway South in Tukwila, Wash. The marchers are asking for a minimum wage of $15 per hour. The march, heading for Seattle, started in SeaTac, the city where a voter initiative to pay workers a minimum of $15 per hour just passed. Photographed on Thursday, December 5, 2013. (Joshua Trujillo, seattlepi.com) less

Fast food workers, labor organizers and other workers march past fast food restaurants on Pacific Highway South in Tukwila, Wash. The marchers are asking for a minimum wage of $15 per hour. The march, heading ... more

Photo: JOSHUA TRUJILLO / SEATTLEPI.COM

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Signs are shown as fast food workers, labor organizers and other workers prepare to march on International Boulevard in SeaTac. The marchers are asking for a minimum wage of $15 per hour. The march, heading for Seattle, started in SeaTac, the city where a voter initiative to pay workers a minimum of $15 per hour just passed. Photographed on Thursday, December 5, 2013. (Joshua Trujillo, seattlepi.com) less

Signs are shown as fast food workers, labor organizers and other workers prepare to march on International Boulevard in SeaTac. The marchers are asking for a minimum wage of $15 per hour. The march, heading ... more

Photo: JOSHUA TRUJILLO / SEATTLEPI.COM

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Fast food workers, labor organizers and other workers march to Seattle in Tukwila. The marchers are asking for a minimum wage of $15 per hour. The march, heading for Seattle, started in SeaTac, the city where a voter initiative to pay workers a minimum of $15 per hour just passed. Photographed on Thursday, December 5, 2013. (Joshua Trujillo, seattlepi.com) less

Fast food workers, labor organizers and other workers march to Seattle in Tukwila. The marchers are asking for a minimum wage of $15 per hour. The march, heading for Seattle, started in SeaTac, the city where ... more

Photo: JOSHUA TRUJILLO / SEATTLEPI.COM

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Fast food workers, labor organizers and other workers march to Seattle in Tukwila. The marchers are asking for a minimum wage of $15 per hour. The march, heading for Seattle, started in SeaTac, the city where a voter initiative to pay workers a minimum of $15 per hour just passed. Photographed on Thursday, December 5, 2013. (Joshua Trujillo, seattlepi.com) less

Fast food workers, labor organizers and other workers march to Seattle in Tukwila. The marchers are asking for a minimum wage of $15 per hour. The march, heading for Seattle, started in SeaTac, the city where ... more

Photo: JOSHUA TRUJILLO / SEATTLEPI.COM

Image 18 of 19

Fast food workers, labor organizers and other workers march past fast food restaurants on Pacific Highway South in Tukwila, Wash. The marchers are asking for a minimum wage of $15 per hour. The march, heading for Seattle, started in SeaTac, the city where a voter initiative to pay workers a minimum of $15 per hour just passed. Photographed on Thursday, December 5, 2013. (Joshua Trujillo, seattlepi.com) less

Fast food workers, labor organizers and other workers march past fast food restaurants on Pacific Highway South in Tukwila, Wash. The marchers are asking for a minimum wage of $15 per hour. The march, heading ... more

Photo: JOSHUA TRUJILLO / SEATTLEPI.COM

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New poll: Sharp drop in support for $15 an hour minimum wage

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The poll was done for OneSeattle, a group backed by both major business groups and small business owners. The group says it wants a higher minimum wage, but warns that a $15 wage — even with a phase-in — would be an economic shock, particularly to restaurants, product assembly operations and non-profits.

But DHM is the Northwest’s premier polling firm, with a 25-year record of spotting trends. In Washington, it has twice accurately shown when support for Tim Eyman initiatives has begun to plummet. It has delved deeply into such issues as public attitudes on climate change.

The poll comes in the midst of a furious public tug of war over the minimum wage issue.

The group 15Now filed a city initiative earlier this week, which would implement a $15-an-hour wage — factored without benefits — on Jan. 1, 2015, with a three-year phase-in for small businesses and non-profits. The group is allied with socialist Seattle City Council member Kshama Sawant.

Sawant vowed Friday to “build a strong coalition in the streets” to pressure elected officials into enacting $15 an hour. A “First 15 Now National Conference” is scheduled for Seattle’s Franklin High School on April 26. Backers of the $15 minimum wage plan to be a major presence on May Day, traditional scene of a Seattle march for immigration reform.

But a quieter campaign of persuasion has been going on, particularly with owners of small restaurants who say they cannot afford a 62 percent increase in labor costs. (The state’s current minimum wage is $9.32 an hour.)

Major businesses have stayed largely quiet, particularly in the face of effective one-on-one persuasion by small-business owners.

Sawant argued Friday that a strong majority of Seattleites want a $15-an-hour minimum wage. “The only person OK with living on under $15 has never lived on that,” she said.

But, in announcing the DHM poll, Louise Chernin, CEO of the Greater Seattle Business Association, said: “What these numbers show is that opinions are changing as more facts and analysis comes to light.”

Polls are a snapshot in time, but the DHM survey comes at a stock-taking time on the minimum wage. With backstage negotiations “deadlocked” — to use Sawant’s term — the issue is likely to go to Seattle voters in the fall. The Emerald City’s electorate may find itself facing more than one minimum wage initiative and option.