Saturday, September 20, 2008

NC Senate: Hagan up 5

Kay Hagan continues to fare surprisingly well against incumbent Elizabeth Dole, with a five point lead in this week's poll.

Hagan, like Barack Obama, is benefiting from increased voter worry over the economy. 58% of North Carolina voters list it as their biggest issue, and Hagan has a 57-30 advantage with those voters.

She's also doing well with North Carolina's fastest growing group of voters: suburbanites. They now represent a plurality of the state's voters, and Hagan is the most popular with them of any of the candidates for President, Governor, and Senate. She leads 53-36 with that emerging power broker.

Hagan is winning 40-31 among independents, and has also begin to shore up her support with black voters in the state. Elizabeth Dole did surprisingly well in 2002 with those folks, but Hagan's lead is now up to 79-11 with them, a major improvement since the early summer.

Is there any chance that you could do a poll of West Virginia sometime?

Its an underpolled state, in my opinion. The CW is that Obama would do poorly in it, as he did in the primaries, but instead the few polls that have been conducted have shown his numbers improving until he was within 4 points during McCain's convention bounce. But the polls have all been by organizations that aren't that great - I haven't heard of Blankenship before, and ARG was not the best of pollsters in the primaries, and a lot of the other polls in their sample look off (Obama only up by 6 in IL, for example.)

It would be interesting to get a poll that could confirm or deny this... WV is a very traditionally Democratic state, and maybe the elitism label has stuck to McCain enough for Obama to have a decent chance of winning the state

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