Friday, September 30, 2016

Week 3 Recap

Favorites lost again in week 3 action, which means they
haven’t had a winning week yet this season. They went 5-10 ATS last week,
bringing their season record to 17-30 ATS. I’ve never seen the favorites start
out a season so slowly. Home dogs continue to shine, going 3-1 ATS, 10-3 ATS
for the season. Seven games went under the totals and 9 games went over.

I’m not releasing this as a Best Bet, but the total in the Giants/Vikings
game Monday night of 43 looks too high to me. Two of the best defenses in the NFL at
preventing scoring and 2 offenses that have struggled to move the ball. The
Giants have gone over that total once so far this year while the Vikings have
never gone over it. This game has under written all over it. No pun intended. The only reason I'm not releasing this as a Best Bet is because I'm not officially starting until week 5, but that doesn't mean you can't pick up a few dollars on it does it?

Thursday, September 22, 2016

Week 2 Recap

Favorites had another tough week going 7-9 ATS (Against the spread), now just 12-20 ATS for the season. Home dogs went 3-0 ATS in week 2 action, and are now 7-2 ATS for the season. 7 games went under the totals and 9 went over.

Tuesday, September 13, 2016

Week 1 Recap

Home teams went 7-9 against the spread, (ATS), and favorites
went 5-11 ATS in week 1 action. Breaking in down further, home favorites went
3-7 ATS, home dogs went 4-2 ATS. 7 games went under the total, 8 games went
over, with one game being a push.

This is a bounce back spot for favorites next week. Look for
favorites to have a strong week in week 2 action.

Wednesday, September 7, 2016

I'm Ready for Football to Start!

I won’t be releasing any picks until week 5 of NFL action
this season. This is the way I normally do it. Some people don’t like this as
they like to be in action every week, but I’m here for one reason, and one
reason only. That’s to help you win money. While I know lots of players like to
have money in action every week and have bets down on the Thursday night game,
the Sunday night game and of course the biggest game of the week, Monday Night
Football, those aren’t necessarily the best betting opportunities. Some weeks I
might recommend 1 game, some weeks 3 games, some weeks 5 games and yes, some weeks
no games. When I find a game with an advantage, I make it a play. I won’t force
a bet because it’s Monday night and it’s fun to bet on Monday night. That just
isn’t the way to make a profit. I sit out the first 4 weeks to see how the season
is playing out. This has worked out very well for me in the past and I see no
reason to change now.

I will be reviewing every week’s action with stats you’ll
need if you decide to take the plunge on your own. It never hurts to know how
the season going, so check back several times a week!

I'm Ready for Football to Start!

I won’t be releasing any picks until week 5 of NFL action
this season. This is the way I normally do it. Some people don’t like this as
they like to be in action every week, but I’m here for one reason, and one
reason only. That’s to help you win money. While I know lots of players like to
have money in action every week and have bets down on the Thursday night game,
the Sunday night game and of course the biggest game of the week, Monday Night
Football, those aren’t necessarily the best betting opportunities. Some weeks I
might recommend 1 game, some weeks 3 games, some weeks 5 games and yes, some weeks
no games. When I find a game with an advantage, I make it a play. I won’t force
a bet because it’s Monday night and it’s fun to bet on Monday night. That just
isn’t the way to make a profit. I sit out the first 5 weeks to see how the season
is playing out. This has worked out very well for me in the past and I see no
reason to change now.

I will be reviewing every week’s action with stats you’ll
need if you decide to take the plunge on your own. It never hurts to know how
the season going, so check back several times a week!

Monday, September 5, 2016

Win Percentage

What percentage of bets
should a handicapper expect to win, against the spread (ATS), during an NFL season? When I first started
out 20 years ago on ProgsPicks.com I asked friends and family that question.
The answers I got most typically were around 70-75%. Even to this day when I
ask people that’s about the response I get. That’s way too high of course. In
fact 60% is too high, which surprises most people. 60% is very hard to achieve
on a regular basis. In all my years of handicapping, I’ve hit over 60% ATS twice.
The truth is, if a handicapper is winning at a rate of 60% ATS, he’s probably not
winning enough. That may sound confusing, but I should be able to clear it up
by the end of this article.

There are two ways to judge
how someone is doing with their picks. The first is win percentage and the
second is how many units they’re ahead. Units are used as a measure and not
money because people have different bet sizes and it’s difficult to compare
directly with different amounts of money in play. When calculating units won,
add 1 for every pick won and subtract 1.1 for every losing pick.

Let’s look at two gamblers
and see how they did. The first person goes 4-2 has a fantastic win percentage
of 66.7%. Another person goes 7-4, which is a 63.6% winning rate. A very good
winning percentage, but not as good as the first one. Of course the fact
the second person won almost 50% more units gets lost in the shuffle. 4-2
wins 1.8 units versus 7-4 which wins 2.6 units.

With that in mind, which of
the two gamblers above did better? It depends on how you look at it. The first
had a higher win rate. The second won more units. It may not be that the first
person was better at picking winners, it might be that the second person bet on
every game he thought he could win. If the goal is to make money, and that’s my
goal, then it’s clear to see the second gambler did better.

The breakeven point on
betting in the NFL is 52.38% (You have to win 11 games for every 10 you lose.
11 divided by 21 equals 52.38 %.) If you’re presented with two games to bet on,
one that wins at a rate of 60% and another that wins at a rate of 55%, how
should you bet? If you’re trying to play it safe and minimize your risks, you’d
go with the 60% bet. However, the best play to win money is to bet on both
games. While we’d all like to have a 60% chance of winning all our bets, those
situations don’t come around all the time. To really make money in NFL betting
you need to bet every game you have an advantage on. Any game, above say 54%,
makes you money in the long run and if winning money is the goal, you should be
taking advantage of every winning situation you can find.

If someone told you that they
won $10,000 on betting football, are they a great handicapper? You'd have
to ask a few questions. Like, how did they do it? If it turns out that this
guy took all the money he had in the world and bet it on one
game and won, I'd congratulate him. And then I'd walk away thinking this
guy's an idiot. But note, he won $10,000 and hit 100% of his bets! Does
that make him a knowledgeable and great handicapper? Not in the least. It makes
him lucky, very lucky, in the short run. Short run as in 1 bet.

So what’s the answer to
what should a handicappers win rate be? It depends on the amount of bets. If he
is making just one bet he has to hit 100% to make money. If he’s making 200
bets, 55% makes him a nice profit. As a general rule, the more bets you make
the lower your win rate, but even a small winning rate can win given enough
bets. A reasonable win rate to shoot for is 57.5%. Hitting 60% can be done, but
if your win rate is that high you’re probably leaving too much money on the
table by not betting all the profitable games that win at a lower rate. That
costs you money to inflate your win rate. It can be a tricky balance.

If someone tells you they can
hit 70% ATS winners, run from that person as fast as possible! I’m not saying it’s impossible
to do it for a season, however unlikely that is, but there’s no way to do it
long term or to guarantee to be able to do it for the upcoming season.

Win Percentage

What percentage of bets
should a handicapper expect to win during an NFL season? When I first started
out 20 years ago on ProgsPicks.com I asked friends and family that question.
The answers I got most typically were around 70-75%. Even to this day when I
ask people that’s about the response I get. That’s way too high of course. In
fact 60% is too high, which surprises most people. 60% is very hard to achieve
on a regular basis. In all my years of handicapping, I’ve hit over 60% twice.
The truth is, if a handicapper is winning at a rate of 60%, he’s probably not
winning enough. That may sound confusing, but I should be able to clear it up
by the end of this article.

There are two ways to judge
how someone is doing with their picks. The first is win percentage and the
second is how many units they’re ahead. Units are used as a measure and not
money because people have different bet sizes and it’s difficult to compare
directly with different amounts of money in play. When calculating units won,
add 1 for every pick won and subtract 1.1 for every losing pick.

Let’s look at two gamblers
and see how they did. The first person goes 4-2 has a fantastic win percentage
of 66.7%. Another person goes 7-4, which is a 63.6% winning rate. A very good
winning percentage, but not as good as the first one. Of course the fact
the second person won almost 50% more units gets lost in the shuffle. 4-2
wins 1.8 units versus 7-4 which wins 2.6 units.

With that in mind, which of
the two gamblers above did better? It depends on how you look at it. The first
had a higher win rate. The second won more units. It may not be that the first
person was better at picking winners, it might be that the second person bet on
every game he thought he could win. If the goal is to make money, and that’s my
goal, then it’s clear to see the second gambler did better.

The breakeven point on
betting in the NFL is 52.38% (You have to win 11 games for every 10 you lose.
11 divided by 21 equals 52.38 %.) If you’re presented with two games to bet on,
one that wins at a rate of 60% and another that wins at a rate of 55%, how
should you bet? If you’re trying to play it safe and minimize your risks, you’d
go with the 60% bet. However, the best play to win money is to bet on both
games. While we’d all like to have a 60% chance of winning all our bets, those
situations don’t come around all the time. To really make money in NFL betting
you need to bet every game you have an advantage on. Any game, above say 54%,
makes you money in the long run and if winning money is the goal, you should be
taking advantage of every winning situation you can find.

If someone told you that they
won $10,000 on betting football, are they a great handicapper? You'd have
to ask a few questions. Like, how did they do it? If it turns out that this
guy took all the money he had in the world and bet it on one
game and won, I'd congratulate him. And then I'd walk away thinking this
guy's an idiot. But note, he won $10,000 and hit 100% of his bets! Does
that make him a knowledgeable and great handicapper? Not in the least. It makes
him lucky, very lucky, in the short run. Short run as in 1 bet.

So what’s the answer to
what should a handicappers win rate be? It depends on the amount of bets. If he
is making just one bet he has to hit 100% to make money. If he’s making 200
bets, 55% makes him a nice profit. As a general rule, the more bets you make
the lower your win rate, but even a small winning rate can win given enough
bets. A reasonable win rate to shoot for is 57.5%. Hitting 60% can be done, but
if your win rate is that high you’re probably leaving too much money on the
table by not betting all the profitable games that win at a lower rate. That
costs you money to inflate your win rate. It can be a tricky balance.

If someone tells you they can
hit 70% winners, run from that person as fast as possible! I’m not saying it’s impossible
to do it for a season, however unlikely that is, but there’s no way to do it
long term or to guarantee to be able to do it for the upcoming season.