Implications of Scottish Independence

This is a discussion on Implications of Scottish Independence within the Geo-strategic Issues forum, part of the Global Defense & Military category; Which Scottish defence companies are not part of a larger company (like BAE)?...

Scottland would likely be accepted as member of the EU and NATO if they decided to become independent. There are quite a lot things in Scotland which have been financed with EU money (like streets in the middle of nowhere). Germany didn't have to join NATO/EU again (or to vote wether they want to be in it), after they reunited (which is exactly the opposite).

The SNP has a long-standing policy of joining the EU, but staying outside NATO.

Neither NATO nor EU membership is automatic for a seceding country. Germany is a different case, not a precedent. The existing German state, with the same constitution, changed its borders. It's a precedent for the UK being able to automatically remain within NATO & the EU, but not Scotland, which would be a new state, with a new constitution. There would have to be negotiations prior to secession to establish whether membership could continue, & on what terms. I'd expect Scotland to be accepted as a new EU member with no gap, but to have to sign an accession treaty.

Please pardon my ignorance on the topic but would the border remain the same as the current one or would the border be possiably moved (north or south) depending on the local populance votes or just stick with what is currently on the map from Berwick upon tweed in the east to Gretna on the west side.

Please pardon my ignorance on the topic but would the border remain the same as the current one or would the border be possiably moved (north or south) depending on the local populance votes or just stick with what is currently on the map from Berwick upon tweed in the east to Gretna on the west side.

I wouldn't expect the border to change, but it'd like to know what others think.

However, Scotland would IMHO not be wrong to consider claiming land, assets and other wealths that the UK has gathered since 1707. For instance Pitcairn Island or the Turks & Caicos Islands all came under UK control after 1707, So i think there would be some merit in claiming parts of or some of, these.

On a different note:

Lets assume that you represent Scotland in the negotiations with the UK. What units and weapons systems would you try to transfer into the new Scottish Defence Force?

The Scottish Government has allocated 1,6% of GDP towards Defence. Its primary purpose is to prevent conflicts and war, preserve the sovereignty of Scotland, secure the continuing existence and integrity of an independent Scotland.
Its primary tasks are; Detect and repel any sovereignty violation of Scottish territory, defence cooperation with EU members, international missions in the area of conflict prevention, crises-control, humanitarian, peacekeeping and finally maintain a sizable and well trained force to execute these tasks at all times.

that's a lot more of some things (e.g. tanks, Warriors, Merlins) than the size of the Scottish population & economy merit. And what would a neutral, non-NATO Scotland with no land borders with anyone except England want with all those Challengers? Are they for capturing Carlisle or Berwick?

And about those Gripens or FA-50s - what about the cost of buying them, & establishing a complete new infrastructure, vs the cost of taking over existing Typhoons, together with spares, trained crews, & everything else needed?

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rythm

+1 on Rob.

However, Scotland would IMHO not be wrong to consider claiming land, assets and other wealths that the UK has gathered since 1707. For instance Pitcairn Island or the Turks & Caicos Islands all came under UK control after 1707, So i think there would be some merit in claiming parts of or some of, these.

If Scotland tried claiming any of them, the response of the UK government should be very simple indeed: it should say "We'll do whatever the local population wants".

If the Pitcairn islanders would prefer to be associated with Scotland, & Scotland wants them, then it's settled.

I expect that Scotland would end up with absolutely no offshore territories, because no British dependencies would have the slightest interest in becoming Scottish dependencies. Raising the topic might even provoke Shetland & Orkney to start agitating for secession from Scotland & continued membership of the UK. It's been mooted before, & after all, they were part of a separate Scotland for a shorter time than they've been part of the British state: 1468-1707, vs 1707-2012 - so far. The islanders still spoke a Norse dialect at the union of the crowns, & there were a few speakers in the 19th century.

I really, really, don't think the SNP wants to stir up any questions about territorial changes.

Does anyone have a grasp of what the SNP are suggesting they need to deliver for a Scottish Defence Force or whatever they've said it'll be?
I don't think sensibly they need or would want to be stuck with the maintenance burden of a lot of the heavier army kit. Neither to be honest do I think they'd want to be landed with the bills for much else.

Their whole view seems to be very inward looking, apart from occasional waves at "Europe" in terms of trade. Fundamentally, the SNP will have a tricky time balancing the books so I think some border security force with fast boats, OPV's, light helos, some Chinooks more or less for disaster relief (assuming Haggis supplies run low in the wilder parts of Scotland or there's an unprecedented Earthquake or flood)

Nothing expensive to run as with a budget of 1.65% they don't want to acquire large capital costs as a mill stone around their necks. Some Tornado and Tiffy possibly, probably just hold out for a single fleet. Buying any foreign type brand new is almost certainly out of the question as it'd be a massive hit while establishing the whole new command and support structure for a Scottish force.

So, some light armoured vehicles for counter terrorism, maybe some UAV's for border security, assuming they can get sat comms access? A small professional force of light infantry with a slant for engineering most likely.

I doubt the SNP will be interested in getting involved in peacekeeping ops although I suppose tantalisingly there's a money spinner there in that it can be a nice earner for some countries.

that's a lot more of some things (e.g. tanks, Warriors, Merlins) than the size of the Scottish population & economy merit. And what would a neutral, non-NATO Scotland with no land borders with anyone except England want with all those Challengers? Are they for capturing Carlisle or Berwick?

And about those Gripens or FA-50s - what about the cost of buying them, & establishing a complete new infrastructure, vs the cost of taking over existing Typhoons, together with spares, trained crews, & everything else needed?

In my view a credible Scottish Force would contain tanks, IFVs, artillery, fighters and frigates. Denmark comes to mind. Going down Route Irish seems improbable with the Scottish actually caring about defence which the Irish do not. SAR, fisheries protection, air policing and defence of the oil fields are needs which will have to be met in my opinion. In addition to that if the Scots get all cosy with the Scandinavians I can see a potential role for the Scottish Army on NATO's northern flank ie Cap of the North. Peacekeeping and Peace Enforcement missions with the NATO, EU or UN should also be seen as a possibility.

I based the number of tanks on Scotland retaining the RSDG with 3 operational squadrons of 14 tanks each, one squadrons worth kept at Cape Wrath for training purposes and one squadrons worth in storage for deployment or deployed. 4 spare vehicles for training of mechanics etc at Leuchars. Changes to the organisation could see the numbers lowered to 50 with 3 operational squadrons of 11 tanks each and no tanks in storage for deployment. 1 squadron in Cape Wrath. 6 tanks in reserve.

Typhoons are really expensive to operate. And could Scotland get anything else than F1's? Perhaps it would be better to negotiate a split where Scotland recieved proportionally more Merlins, C-130s, Challengers and Type 23s etc for giving up its claim on the Typhoons. All but 4 C-130's could then be sold and the acquired funding be put into some kind of lease agreement for Gripens similar to the Czech one.

200 Vikings from BAE Systems including upgrade of older vehicles to a total fleet of 260
New Rifles from Colt Canada/HK/FN
Personal Protection Equipment
New forces-wide communications system
Future rearmament of Challenger 2 with Rheinmetall 120mm L55

30 JAS-39C/D/NG Gripen or FA-50 in place of Typhoons due to cost of operation
4 C-130J from RAF
3 Marine Patrol Aircraft from CASA/ATR/Embraer/Bombardier or modified C-130's from RAF
18 Merlin from RAF/RN
C3I and base infrastructure from RAF/RN
Various missiles and weapon systems from RAF

The SNP have announced they want no part of NATO as it's a nuclear armed alliance. I think you need to go and look at what the SNP has said they'll do in terms of a defence policy and work from that, not simply add up a shopping list of things you'd like.

Too much heavy armour and ground vehicles for a country that has one land border with a friendly, nuclear armed country.

200 Vikings from BAE Systems including upgrade of older vehicles to a total fleet of 260
New Rifles from Colt Canada/HK/FN
Personal Protection Equipment
New forces-wide communications system
Future rearmament of Challenger 2 with Rheinmetall 120mm L55

30 JAS-39C/D/NG Gripen or FA-50 in place of Typhoons due to cost of operation
4 C-130J from RAF
3 Marine Patrol Aircraft from CASA/ATR/Embraer/Bombardier or modified C-130's from RAF
18 Merlin from RAF/RN
C3I and base infrastructure from RAF/RN
Various missiles and weapon systems from RAF

The SNP plan for the SDF (outside NATO) is no more than 12,000 personel including reserve forces. 4 Jet aircraft, 4 naval vessels and one mobile armed brigade.

No MBT's or large numbers of artillery.

1 naval base and only 1 airbase.

Can you provide a link? I've not been able to find anything so specific. The SNP has long been very vague about numbers & details.

Salmond said in January, referring to the latest British defence review “The configuration of the army in Scotland, the mobile brigade, which is the outcome of the defence review, looks exactly like the configuration you’d want for a Scottish defence force -– so that’s one naval base, one aircraft base and a mobile armed brigade.”, but I can't find anything on the numbers of aircraft, ships, other weapons or troops.

A few months earlier, Salmond was arguing vociferously for the retention of three RAF bases in Scotland, so it's rather hard to say what the real policy is.