OECD Environmental Outlook to 2030

The OECD Environmental Outlook to 2030 provides analyses of economic and
environmental trends to 2030, and simulations of policy packages to address the
key environmental challenges.

GLOBIO
contribution

The GLOBIO model was used to analyse the consequences
for terrestrial biodiversity of several policy packages, relative to a
business-as-usual reference scenario. The packages include measures in the following
areas:

agricultural trade liberalization

climate change mitigation

air pollution

waste treatment

The packages are implemented at different scales, reflecting the effects of
joining forces between OECD countries, upcoming economies and developing
countries.

In the reference scenario, biodiversity
continues to decline at a relentless pace. From 73% in 2000 to 66% in 2030 and
62% in 2050 (figure 1). The major causes of the loss are agricultural land-use,
expanding infrastructure and climate change (figure 2).

The 450-ppm climate change mitigation
option shows the strongest biodiversity effects, as it contains far reaching
measures that affect both land-use change and climate change (figure 3). This
option reduces the climate change effects on biodiversity, but this positive
effect is offset by increased land-use for biofuel production. If follows that
only by combining climate change mitigation with increased land-use efficiency the
negative effects on biodiversity can be counterbalanced.