Pac-12 tournament: Precious Quadrant One wins could be scarce for teams on NCAA bubble

* The following commentary appeared in the Hotline newsletter on Wednesday and has been re-published here (updated to reflect results) for readers who missed the original …

But it strikes me that opportunity could be somewhat limited for four teams on the NCAA tournament bubble.

For all the nuance involved in the at-large selection process, Quadrant One victories are indisputably vital.

With respect neutral-court results like those at T-Mobile Arena this weekend, only wins over top-50 opponents count as Quadrant One victories.

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Arizona is a lock for March Madness — the only lock.

We’ll assume, for now, that struggling Arizona State makes the at-large field.

Yep, despite losing five of their last six … and despite that ugly opening-round loss to Colorado … the Sun Devils are in favorable position because of wins over potential No. 1 seeds Kansas (road) and Xavier (neutral).

(There is nothing more valuable in the selection process than high-level, non-conference, road/neutral court wins.)

But there are four Pac-12 teams with resumes that point to various sides of the bubble:

USC, UCLA, Utah and Washington.

Let’s quickly note the relevant RPI data as of Thursday morning; the numbers will undoubtedly shift over coming days, but probably not dramatically.

Multiple Quadrant One victories this weekend would add significant polish to the postseason profiles.

Yet three of the four bubble-sitters were grouped together on the right side of the bracket, thus forming an eat-your-own wall to Q1 heaven.

Washington was eliminated Wednesday night, but there is no scenario in which both USC and Utah can record multiple Q1 wins.

They would collide in the semifinals, with the loser leaving Las Vegas without a single Q1 victory.

USC would collect multiple Q1 wins by beating Utah and either Arizona or UCLA in the title game.

Utah would collect multiple Q1s by beating USC and either Arizona or UCLA in the final.

Meanwhile, on the other side of the bracket, the Bruins have a path to multiple Q1s, but only by defeating Arizona and then either Utah or USC in the championship.

In other words, only one of the three bubble teams still standing in T-Mobile can record multiple Q1s.

Perhaps that won’t be an issue as the selection process unfolds.

Perhaps one high-level victory will be enough to catapult a combination of the Pac-12 bubble teams into the NCAAs.

But two Q1s would undoubtedly provide a major boost.

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