Results of 4-3 for -3.59 units for UFC 97 brings the running total for my
public predictions since UFC 75 to 79-57 for +31.895 units.

As usual, except where otherwise indicated, all lines are current market lines from MMAjunkie.com’s recommended sportsbook, Bodog. It’s easy to open an account at Bodog; you can fund your Bodog account
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watched MMA. Having your heart race when “your” fighter steps into the
cage – even if you’ve only got a few dollars in play – is a feeling
like none other. (But you should only wager you’d feel comfortable losing. Be sure to keep it fun.)

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Rich Franklin (-140) vs. Wanderlei Silva (+115)

The main event of the UFC’s first trip to Germany features the collision of two of the sport’s greatest warriors to previously hold the title of middleweight champion. Wanderlei Silva (32-9-1 MMA, 2-4 UFC) hasn’t held a UFC title but did for the now-defunct PRIDE organization’s middleweight division, a weight class that was contested at 93 kilograms (205 pounds). Silva amassed an incredible 22-4-1 record in PRIDE, a run that included victories over Dan Henderson, Quinton “Rampage” Jackson and Ricardo Arona. His background at the vaunted Chute Boxe academy gives him strong Muay Thai striking that he combines with a black belt in Brazilian jiu jitsu under Carlinhos Gracie.

Silva rarely utilizes his jiu jitsu in an offensive capacity and instead typically moves forward in blitzkrieg fashion to overwhelm his opponents with flurries of looping power punches, knees and elbows. Silva has lost four of his past five fights, three by brutal “lightswitch” knockouts, which has caused many to question if “The Axe Murder” has absorbed too much punishment over his vaunted career to continue to compete at the top levels (despite only being 32 years old). This fight will be contested at a catch-weight of 88kg (195 pounds) and is Silva’s first fight below 205 pounds. After this fight he says he plans to drop to the UFC’s middleweight division (185 pounds).

Rich Franklin (24-4 MMA, 11-3 UFC) needs little introduction to UFC fans new or old. Franklin reigned as the UFC middleweight champion from UFC 53 (June 2005) until he ran into Anderson Silva at UFC 64 (October 2006). Despite the two one-sided losses to Silva, Franklin has defeated every other opponent he has faced in the octagon, with the only other exception the close (and to some, controversial) split-decision loss to Dan Henderson in his most recent fight, at UFC 93. Franklin is an effective striker who usually functions best as a counterpuncher, but he can take the initiative when necessary. He’s got underrated ground skills in general but does lack the jiu-jitsu pedigree of his opponent. Franklin’s biggest advantage in a fight is typically his size and strength; he’s tremendously large and strong for a middleweight, though some of that typical advantage has lessened as he’s moved up in weight class.

Breaking down this fight, it’s easy to assume that the weakness Franklin has repeatedly demonstrated in the clinch against Anderson Silva will result in the same one-sided affair against the strong Muay Thai of Wanderlei Silva. I don’t agree; the Muay Thai exhibited by “The Axe Murder” isn’t stylistically similar to that of “The Spider.” Anderson is equally effective from distance as from close range, whereas Wanderlei is essentially only a close-range fighter who tends to utilize the clinch only when he’s already overwhelmed his opponents.

I believe Franklin’s superior range and counterpunching ability is going to make this fight very similar to Silva’s bout with “Rampage” Jackson. While Franklin definitely trails Jackson in punching power, I believe he has enough power – and especially enough tactical accuracy – effectively to turn out the lights on Silva based on his recent predilection for getting knocked out. Rich Franklin by KO in the first round.

This battle of top heavyweight contenders (at least, in terms of the UFC’s sparse heavyweight division) should answer a lot of questions about the legitimacy of both fighters. Frenchman Cheick Kongo (14-4-1 MMA, 7-2 UFC) is an impressive physical specimen with strong kickboxing skills but extremely limited (but improving) wrestling. His opponent is American Kickboxing Academy’s Cain Velasquez, an up-and-coming fighter who is primarily a wrestler with brutal ground and pound.

Kongo’s standup has been dominant, and he has demonstrated some improvement in his ground game. However, he’s only 18 months removed from looking like absolute garbage on his back against Carmelo Marrero at UFC 64 and just about a year removed from a very similar performance against Heath Herring at UFC 82. He also showed only moderate improvements in his top game in his most recent fight against Antoni Hardonk.

While Kongo has a significant height and reach advantage and an extreme advantage on the feet, to me this is a relatively simple fight to handicap. Kongo’s glaring weakness is his ground game, and Velasquez is by far the best wrestler that Kongo has faced to date. Kongo’s reach and striking ability will certainly help to avoid ending up on his back, but Velasquez has shown sufficient ability to strike (and to absorb a punch) on his feet that he shouldn’t have much issue closing ground on Kongo. Unless Kongo has significantly improved his wrestling (much more so than the moderate improvement he’s shown in his past few fights), he’s going to end up on his back and most likely be pounded out pretty quickly by Velasquez’s brutal ground and pound. On the flip side, if Kongo can stuff a few takedowns and force Velasquez to exchange, he should be able to dominate the young prospect since Velasquez most likely still lacks the striking chops to stand against Kongo’s arsenal.

While it’s easy to point out that this is Velasquez’s toughest opponent to date (or easily the worst stylistic matchup that Kongo has faced), a few questions definitely remain. It’s hard to know how much Kongo’s wrestling and work from his back has improved. It’s also hard to know how much Velasquez’s standup or jiu jitsu has improved under the tutelage of AKA, but I think those are less important factors to consider. Even if his standup has significantly improved, it still would be stupendously ridiculous game-planning – Sean Sherk-level ridiculous game-planning – for Velasquez to stand and trade given the gaping hole in Kongo’s defenses on the ground.

If Kongo comes out with a game plan to focus less on striking and more on avoiding the takedown, and Velasquez comes out looking purely to take the fight to the ground (as he well should), this could be a bit slower-paced bout with fewer fireworks than many might hope. I expect a slower start, with Kongo stuffing a few shots from distance while trying to work his jab. But Velasquez should be able to get Kongo down late in the first round and then more quickly in the second, when I predict he’ll finish via TKO.

Mike Swick (13-2 MMA, 8-1 UFC) is a speedy, aggressive striker who is a veteran of the first season of “The Ultimate Fighter.” Swick trains at American Kickboxing Academy and says that he’s coming in to this fight off a 14-week training camp so intense that the one-time middleweight won’t have to cut any significant weight to meet the 170-pound welterweight limit.

Ben Saunders (7-0-2 MMA, 3-0 UFC) trains with American Top Team and has a background in kickboxing and Jeet Kune Do, and he holds a purple belt in jiu jitsu. A cast member from “The Ultimate Fighter 6,” Saunders has posted three consecutive victories since joining the UFC. The list includes a decision victory over Dan Barrera, a submission victory over Ryan Thomas, and a brutal TKO of Brandon Wolff in his most recent fight at December’s UFC Fight Night 16 event. Saunders is coming into the fight off an injury, a severely fractured toe forced him to pull out of a UFC 96 bout with Dustin Hazelett.

Despite being significantly hyped (and correspondingly overrated) early in his UFC career, Swick’s stock has faded a bit since a one-sided decision loss to Yushin Okami at UFC 69 – to the point that I think he’s actually being overlooked and underrated here. Saunders is being given a lot of credit for his quick and brutal TKO over Wolff, but given that Wolff is now 0-2 in the UFC with two one-sided first round losses (and is now 7-4 overall in his MMA career), I think the dominant performance is more due to a talent gap in his opponent than a sign of Saunder’s readiness to contest at the top of the division.

Outside of the main event, this could easily be the most exciting fight on the card. Saunders has several exciting wins under his belt, but he is taking a significant step up in quality of opponent here. Swick is a very well-rounded fighter with good technique no matter where the fight goes. Saunders may have the ability to physically overpower Swick, and he will have the advantage in reach, but Swick’s edge in speed and power coupled with his experience and technique should combine to allow him to control the fight early, frustrating Saunders en route to a late TKO victory.

The well-documented war of words between Marcus Davis (16-4 MMA, 8-2 UFC) and Dan Hardy (21-6 MMA, 2-0 UFC) adds some interesting fire to what should be a solid fight. Hardy is a solid Muay Thai kickboxer with good ground and pound. Davis is a crisper striker (thanks to his formal boxing background) and has grown into an extremely well-rounded mixed martial artist with half his career victories coming by way of submission. Hardy will have the advantage in reach, especially as his Muay Thai skills mix in more kicks compared to Davis’ primary emphasis on boxing. Hardy has better defensive footwork and volume of strikes. Davis should have better head movement, significantly greater accuracy, greater power in his punches, and greater hand speed. Hardy is an Eddie Bravo blue belt in jiu jitsu, but Davis should have the edge in both grappling and submissions.

Mike Swick laid out an effective game plan for beating Davis in their fight at UFC 85. Swick was able to use his kickboxing skills, range and speed to frustrate Davis from a distance and win a unanimous decision. While it’s easy to think that Hardy should be able to follow the exact same game plan, I believe the experience from the Swick fight should give Davis a solid game plan for countering that strategy; look for him to focus more on cutting off the ring instead of pursuing and to work harder to get the fight to the ground, where he should have a stronger edge.

I think this line is pretty well set. Davis is a two-to-one favorite based on his well-rounded set of skills, yet Hardy has a real chance to upset if Davis’ camp hasn’t come up with an effective counter to someone who stays outside kickboxing. I think Davis (and coach Mark Dellagrotte) will come through. Marcus Davis by submission in the second round.

Spencer Fisher (-210) vs. Caol Uno (+170)

Miletich fighter Spencer Fisher (22-4 MMA, 7-3 UFC) is a dynamic striker with heavy hands and a lot of heart. While he’s not much of a wrestler, he does have eight victories via submission, most of them triangle chokes.

Japanese veteran Caol Uno (25-11-4 MMA, 3-3-1 UFC) is primarily a wrestler and grappler. This is Uno’s second stint in the UFC. After starting his career in Shooto, he fought in the UFC from 2001-2003 before leaving for K-1 and eventually DREAM.

This should be a classic battle of opposing styles: Fisher will want to keep the fight standing, and Uno will want to battle on the ground. Fisher is good at creating scrambles but generally a weak wrestler with poor takedown defense. Uno can very easily pull out an upset victory if he sticks to a conservative game plan of takedowns and ground control. He was able to take elite grappler Shinya Aoki to decision in his most recent fight, so assuming he doesn’t get blasted on the chin while setting up a shot, he shouldn’t have much trouble avoiding Fisher’s submission skills from his back and riding out a unanimous decision.

Mirko “Cro Cop” Filipovic (-500) vs. Mostapha Al-Turk (+300)

Mirko “Cro Cop” Filipovic (24-6-2 MMA, 1-2 UFC) is a strong kickboxer with excellent takedown defense. A longtime PRIDE fighter perhaps best known for winning the organization’s 2006 Open-Weight Grand Prix, “Cro Cop” entered the UFC in 2007 ranked as one of the world’s top heavyweights. After outclassing Eddie Sanchez in his UFC debut, the Croatian fighter suffered disappointing back-to-back losses to Gabriel Gonzaga (via stunning head-kick KO) and Cheick Kongo. He says he’s entering Saturday’s bout fully healthy following recent knee surgery and ready to erase what he calls a “black spot” in his career and life.

British fighter Mustapha Al-Turk (6-4 MMA, 0-1 UFC) is primarily a grappler, having won the ADCC European Championship in 2005. He’s not a submission fighter, but tends to utilize his size and strength to fight from the clinch and use his grappling skills to position himself to deliver ground and pound. Formerly the Cage Rage heavyweight champion, he was stopped in the first round of his UFC debut against Cheick Kongo at UFC 92.

Filipovic is 2-0-1 since getting run out of the UFC, but both wins are over mediocre competition: a TKO victory over Tatsuya Mizuno (5-5 MMA) in under a minute at DREAM.1 and a TKO victory by leg kick over Hong Man Choi (2-2 MMA).

“Old school” MMA fans are still holding out hope that Filipovic returns to greatness, but at 34 years old after a long career of combat sports (and on the heels of two disappointing losses and two wins over sub-par competition), it’s hard to justify Filipovic as a better than 80 percent favorite against even a mid-tier opponent sych as Al-Turk. If Al-Turk can muscle the undersized “Cro Cop” into the clinch and down to the ground, it is very possible that we see Filipovic run out of the organization on a rail once again. However, if Al-Turk can’t quickly get the fight to the ground, he’ll likely be leaving the cage with some assistance from his corner.

PRELIMINARY CARD

Terry Etim (-330) vs. Justin Buchholz (+275)

Liverpool’s Terry Etim (12-2 MMA, 3-2 UFC) is a kickboxer with solid submission skills but weak wrestling. Alaskan Justin Buchholz (8-2 MMA, 1-1 UFC) is a strong wrestler with submission skills but very limited striking. While Buchholz should be able to take Etim down almost at will, Etim’s good guard and ability to threaten with sweeps and submissions should be sufficient to keep himself out of getting stopped. Buchholz’s only real path to victory is a submission stoppage or riding out a decision since Etim will have a serious advantage on the feet. Etim should be able to punish his opponent from range enough to win a unanimous decision, but Buchholz – orange hair and all – is a real threat to grind out a close decision victory with his wrestling skills (and Etim’s lack thereof). He already has notched one victory as a three-to-one underdog in the UFC (against Corey Hill at UFC 86), and I think there’s an acceptable chance that he can do so again here.

German Dennis Siver (13-6 MMA, 2-3 UFC) is a former regional kickboxing champion and Greco-Roman wrestler who has shown some passable submission skills in his four year MMA career. Siver spent some time preparing for this fight with Xtreme Couture in Las Vegas.

Dale Hartt (6-1 MMA, 1-1 UFC) started his career training with Mark Dellagrotte but recently moved to New Mexico to train under Greg Jackson. A veteran of the U.S. Navy, Hartt is perhaps best known as being the “other guy” in the photo of Corey Hill’s gruesome leg break.

I’m not particularly impressed with past footage of either fighter; both are still a ways from becoming a complete well-rounded mixed martial artist. Despite having the crowd at his back, I think Hartt might have enough of an edge thanks to Greg Jackson’s excellent camp to pull out the upset. Hart via unanimous decision.

England’s Paul Taylor (9-4-1 MMA, 2-3 UFC) is a kickboxer who has dropped three of his past four fights. German Peter Sobotta (8-1 MMA, 0-0 UFC) is a touted prospect making his UFC debut at 22 on the friendliest possible stage. He is a grappler with a background in judo, jiu jitsu and submission wrestling.

Taylor has two losses via submission in the past two years, the most recent to Marcus Davis at UFC 75. He has a significant advantage on the feet, but he has weak wrestling and significant holes in his ground game. Sobotta should be able to easily take this fight to the ground and has a real chance to win via submission. This line is terribly mis-priced and represents the best value bet on the cards. Sobotta could certainly get blasted on the feet or in the clinch by Taylor’s slick standup skills, but he has several paths to victory via the ground game and represents a great underdog play.

A veteran of the eighth season of “The Ultimate Fighter,” Rolando Delgado (6-3-1 MMA, 1-0 UFC) owns his own gym, West Side MMA in Arkansas. Delgado claims to have a black belt in Brazilian jiu jitsu, but he also claimed on “TUF 8″ to have earned the belt in only a week’s worth of study while in Maceio, Brazil, so there are some lingering questions about his belt’s legitimacy. (Edit to add: Looks like what we saw on the show wasn’t the full story. Check out this interview from Delgado courtesy FiveOuncesofPain.com where he explains why his belt is indeed legitimate. Apologies for passing on incomple information. -P)

Wolfslair fighter Paul “Tellys” Kelly (8-1 MMA, 2-1 UFC) has previously fought at welterweight but is making the cut to lightweight. He’s perfectly sized to make the cut to lightweight – he didn’t cut weight to fight at welterweight – and should have a serious strength advantage in the fight as a result. Kelly should be able to use his strength advantage to stuff Delgado’s takedown attempts, and his superior striking and power should easily overcome Degado’s significant reach advantage. Look for Kelly to abuse Delgado in the standup game before knocking him out in the second round.

Fighting out of Holland, Denis Stojnic (5-2 MMA, 0-1 UFC) is a kickboxer who also holds a black belt in the Russian art of Sambo. He’ll be at a significant height and reach disadvantage to Stefan “Skyscraper” Struve (16-3 MMA, 0-1 UFC). You may remember Struve from his short-lived debut against Junior Dos Santos at UFC 95. Struve is a well-regarded kickboxer with excellent submission skills (think Nate Diaz and his ability to leverage his extra-long limbs) who was absolutely crushed close range by Dos Santos in his debut. Against Stojnic, Struve should find much more success. Struve should be able to leverage his kickboxing skills to keep Stojnic at range, and he should be able to win via submission if the fight hits the ground.

This is my second favorite bet on the card. The 21-year-old Struve is much better than he looked against Dos Santos, and more importantly, this is a much more favorable stylistic matchup since Stojnic lacks the close-range credentials to punish Struve from the clinch. Struve should be able to abuse Stojnic’s limited gas tank by beating him up from range for a while before ending the fight via submission.

John Hathaway (10-0 MMA, 1-0 UFC) is a well-rounded fighter, with adequate striking on his feet but is most comfortable taking his opponents down and elbowing them into oblivion.

Rick Story (7-2 MMA, 0-0 UFC) is a former collegiate wrestler who is making his UFC debut. Story was runner up in the 2006 NAIA wrestling championships at 184 pounds for his alma mater, Southern Oregon University. He is an active member of the National Guard and runs his own gym, BraveHeart Fight Club in Vancouver, Wash. Story is riding a six-fight win streak that includes a win over one-time WEC fighter Ryan Healy.

Hathaway has not faced anyone with wrestling credentials before, and this should be a solid test for both fighters. Ultimately, I think Hathaway’s game is well-rounded enough to survive this test. Despite having the wrestling disadvantage, Hathaway has decent skills in the clinch, including some nice throws and tosses. Assuming Story has the typical wrestler’s dislike of working from his back, I won’t be surprised to see Hathaway work a takedown from the clinch and end the fight quickly via his strong top game. Likewise, we haven’t really seen Hathaway on his back, so it’s very possible that this fight goes either way. I’m staying away personally, though several people I respect are playing Story as the slight underdog.

(Note: As usual, these are my recommended plays. Adjust my
recommendations to fit with your own comfort level, or better yet, use
my recommendations as a point of feedback to your own predictions. Sobotta is a high-risk, high-reward play. Definitely adjust this play to meet your own risk tolerances.)

Ronda Rousey’s statistical greatness has already ventured into uncharted territory – just six fights into her UFC career. Check out all the post-fight facts, including Rousey’s latest achievements, about UFC 190.