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Analysts revise iPod sales estimates.

MacNN reports that Merill Lynch is cutting its iPod sales estimate for Apple’s fourth fiscal quarter from 8.3 million to 7.7 million, following cuts by Piper Jaffray and UBS yesterday.

Merill Lynch’s estimate would still be a 20% increase year-over-year, but a rather precipitous drop from the previous quarter’s 8.111 million. Piper Jaffray’s Gene Munster and UBS’s Ben Reitzes had rather more optimistic estimates of 8.2 million and 8.12 million respectively.

The Macalope doesn’t have access to the monthly data, but Merill’s estimate seems a bit conservative. Munster indicates that without the revised lineup, their estimate would have been 7.4 million for the quarter, so Merill’s saying there was only 300,000 in pent-up demand (yeah, different analysts, but they all already have the actual numbers for July and August, so their estimates for the quarter without the revised lineup shouldn’t be that different).

The Macalope’s going to go with 8.1 million, siding with Munster and Reitzes but hedging his bet a little.

Completely uniformed guess: the new nano design is not as popular? They brought back the mini’s styling, but I much preferred the more chiseled-looking older design. Does Apple release the numbers for individual models?

These analysts only have the data for the first few weeks of September, so they are completely projecting what the sales will be for the new models. But they’re probably making different assumptions based on their perceptions of the new models – much like your point. The Macalope’s not sure if they can get numbers broken out by the model or not. He doesn’t think Apple releases them but they might be able to get it from retail analysis.