VOTERS in two crucial marginal seats are leaning towards returning their Labor MPs at tomorrow’s state election, despite also wanting the Liberals to take government.

Advertiser-Galaxy polls in one southern suburb battleground and a key northeastern seat show Labor holding slender two-party leads of 51-49.

But Opposition Leader Steven Marshall is preferred premier in both seats, where voters also want Labor to lose government.

The conflicted results in Mitchell (Seaview Downs) and Newland (Tea Tree Gully) show the power of incumbency in SA politics and indicate the broad expectation of a Liberal victory is limiting the party’s ability to raise a protest vote.

The new polls give Labor a glimmer of hope that it can prevent a broad swing to the Liberals of about 5 per cent in metropolitan electorates, which would trigger a mass loss of seats.

Mitchell and Newland have been the target big Labor spending promises. A future O-Bahn upgrade has been pledged for the northeast and road and rail upgrades have been delivered in the south.

But the Liberals remain confident about their chances in a dozen seats across the state and need to gain just six to form government in their own right and avoid a hung parliament.

Labor’s majority in parliament would be wiped out if it loses three or more seats. The tight contests in Newland and Mitchell — which are Labor’s sixth and fifth most marginal seats respectively — indicate the party faces an uphill battle in other seats where its grip is even weaker.

Clinging on in Newland. Labor’s Tom Kenyon. .Source: News Limited

The member for Mitchell, Labor’s Alan Sibbons.Source: Supplied

The results also give fresh ammunition for the Liberals. It is warning voters who want to change the government that they can only do so by punishing their local Labor candidate.

Newland sits within a group of four marginal seats the Liberals are eyeing as they seek to take a majority.

Mitchell is at the centre of a group of four critical southern suburbs marginal seats. It borders Bright (Brighton and Hallett Cove), Mawson (Hackham and McLaren Vale), and Elder (Mitchell Park), which all have margins under 5 per cent.

In Newland, where 503 respondents were polled, Small Business Minister Tom Kenyon’s primary vote has held firm since 2010, up from 43.2 per cent to 44 per cent.

Playford Mayor Glenn Docherty has lifted the Liberal primary vote from 38.1 per cent to 42 per cent as Green backing slumped from 8 per cent to 6 per cent.

Family First is running an open ticket in the seat and its support has risen from 6.9 per cent to 8 per cent. The path of its preferences looms as critical in the final result.

Mr Kenyon is the most senior member of Labor’s Right faction running in a marginal seat this election. At the start of the campaign, one Labor source said there would be “blood and bullets” as the powerful faction sought to secure his re-election.

The former member for Mitchell, Kris Hanna. His candidacy this election complicates Labor’s lead in the seat and will make Saturday’s poll a genuine three-way contest.Source: Supplied

In Mitchell, one-term Labor MP Alan Sibbons is fighting off attacks on two fronts.

High-profile Liberal candidate and former TV presenter Corey Wingard has lifted his party’s primary vote to 36 per cent from the 28.5 per cent recorded in 2010.

Independent candidate Kris Hanna, who lost the seat in 2010, is pulling 19 per cent of the primary vote compared to the 27.8 per cent he won as the incumbent.

Mr Sibbons’ primary vote has lifted from 34.2 per cent to 38 per cent.

The result makes it unlikely that a winner will be known on election night and indicates the second preferences of Mr Hanna’s backers will become crucial to the result.

Advertiser-Galaxy SA Poll

Advertiser-Galaxy SA Poll

Similar results were reflected in a Sunday Mail-Galaxy poll taken on February 27 in Colton (Henley Beach), where Labor’s Paul Caica was locked 50-50 with his Liberal challenger Joe Barry. Mr Marshall was also that electorate’s preferred premier but there was strong endorsement for Mr Caica’s performance as an MP.

Galaxy Research managing director David Briggs said both seats were hanging in the balance and the results raised the prospect of a hung parliament.

“This poll confirms that the Labor Party are successfully limiting the swing in the key Adelaide seats that the Liberals need to win,” he said.

Former TV presenter Corey Wingard has had a surge in support for the Liberals in Mitchell.Source: Supplied

Liberal sources yesterday said they remained confident of winning both marginal seats because recent research showed them pulling clear in Mitchell and leading in Newland.

Labor sources were fear that far larger swings may lurk in other seats across the city, offsetting the smaller movements that polls have recorded in Colton, Mitchell and Newland.

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