I'm with HyponGrey..as long as the picks provide value, I'd like to see us go something like

Rd 1) a legit FS

Rd 2) TE

Rd 3) OLB for rotation

Rd 3/4 comp) WR

Rd 4) either a guy who could play both DE & NT in our scheme or a ILB for the rotation (unless Lattimore or Manning improves drastically)

Doesn't have to be just like that. I'd just like to see em address those positions with their first few picks in whatever order presents the best value. Those are just the top positions of need in my mind.

Agree with this very much. Obviously the development of certain players could change things but for now, looks like a good

I'm with HyponGrey..as long as the picks provide value, I'd like to see us go something like

Rd 1) a legit FS

Rd 2) TE

Rd 3) OLB for rotation

Rd 3/4 comp) WR

Rd 4) either a guy who could play both DE & NT in our scheme or a ILB for the rotation (unless Lattimore or Manning improves drastically)

Doesn't have to be just like that. I'd just like to see em address those positions with their first few picks in whatever order presents the best value. Those are just the top positions of need in my mind.

Agree with this very much. Obviously the development of certain players could change things but for now, looks like a good plan.

McCarron frustrates me. There are four plays in the TAMU game that he had really nice deep shots for.

1] Michael Williams is covered by the S, who gets caught with his eyes in the backfield. S has to turn around to make a play on Williams, who is deeper than anyone on the field, right down the middle on a seam route. McCarron sees it and makes the pass, but it's under-thrown. Williams has to break his stride and the S comes up and deflects the pass.

2] Blown coverage, Amari Cooper is open running down the right sideline. McCarron throws, and Cooper has to slow down and wait for the pass. Cooper catches it, still has the distance between him and the closest DB to get to full speed and take it in for a score. It's a TD, but it could have gone a lot better.

3] Cooper is wide open down the left sideline. McCarron delivers a perfect strike to him. Touchdown. This is what the first two should have looked like.

4] Kenny Bell is open down-field. McCarron throws, and once again, his receiver has to break stride for the ball. Would have been a touchdown, DB ends up getting him at the 5. Alabama would have gone up 2 points with ~4 minutes left in the game. Instead, on 4th and goal McCarron throws a Int, that got snatched out of his WR's hands.

If McCarron could have hit his guys on stride he would have had a better chance of winning that TAMU game. Left two potential easy scores on the table. McCarron's really efficient in the short/middle, too. Had the highest TD% and lowest INT% of a major sr. QB prospect (by my calculations, could be wrong though. Never know.) He hides a lot of flaws down-field because of his talented teammates, though. Doesn't get put under pressure a lot, either._________________

But he should have gone somewhere else for college ball. Where they have better coaching.

I just wouldn't trade up for a WR with question marks. Now if he cools his jets and stays clean I am all for having a talented WR but if he turns into the Honey Badger V2 I would never trade up for him.

BTW Louis Nix III is a 1 man wrecking crew. I would love to have him in Green Bay but I wouldn't be surprised to hear his name in the top 5-10 range.

Nix is great, but Tuitt is going to be the star.

ND is gonna be nice again, and I cant wait!

No doubt. Tuitt is the better player right now. That is a 3-4 DE who can easily play 4-3 end, ELITE movement for a guy that size. IMO Nix could be just as good as Tuitt, he just isn't yet. Both are on my top 5-10 radar for next year.

Timeline:
2009: Redshirted his first year at Clemson.
2010: Lost out the starting QB battle to Kyle Parker, also a redshirt freshman, who broke several freshman records for Clemson. Clemson's staff still really like Boyd and had him pretty active for a #2 QB.
2011: Kyle Parker was drafted #26 overall in the MLB Draft after his freshman season, so he left. Boyd took over as the starter for the first time and earned 1st team ACC honors.
2012: In his second year as a starter for Clemson he earned his second 1st team ACC honor.
2013: Projected to start for his third year.

The biggest thing that stands out to me based on his metrics is how much he gets sacks. While he is a thicker quarterback, he shouldn't be taking so many hits. When you watch Clemson you will see them using him in another unconventional way: running right up the middle. They run the inline zone read in a way that will have him take the ball, instead of handing off to the slot receiver that's "jetting", and ram it up the middle of the line. We have seen what quarterbacks like Russell Wilson can do at the next level, but he's not taking that many hits. Actually, no one really is. To put it in perspective I counted rush attempts and sacks over the careers of each of the quarterbacks drafted in the 2013 Draft. While not every attempt is a hit (could be a kneel down or slide) and there are hits that don't register on the stat sheet (hits when a quarterback got the ball away), it's the easiest way to get everyone on an even-ish field.

Tajh Boyd already has more rushing attempts than nine of the eleven quarterbacks who got drafted in 2013. If Boyd continues to run the ball like he has the past two years he will pass Zac Dysert (Broncos 7th round pick), leaving B.J. Daniels (49ers 7th round pick) the only "quarterback" who rushed more than he did in college. I use the term "quarterback" loosely, because Daniels is a quarterback/running back hybrid that will most likely not be spending his NFL tenure throwing the football.

Boyd's sack numbers are middle of the pack compared to the 2013 class, but he's still got a year to go. If he gets sacks 31 times (like he has the past two years), then he should be at 98. That would leave him tied with Brad Sorensen (Chargers 7th round pick) and behind Zac Dysert.

Part of Boyd's sack problem is that he holds the ball too long. Take this play for example:

He's Boyd before the play, only four players looked like they are blitzing.

The left end gets loose, but he's got time to make the pass. Boyd is staring at the linebacker, who is forced to freeze, while his tight end gets open to the left.

He looks quickly at his tight end, but his eyes drop to the pass rush. His tight end is still free in the open, but he's too focused on the rush to do anything. He ends up taking a sack here, instead of throwing it to the open man.

Another good example of this comes near the end of the LSU game:

Boyd rolled right on a goal line down, with his tight and wide receiver in scoring position. LSU's linebacker messed up by turning his back, basically taking him out of position to make a play right away, if Boyd makes the pass before he catches up. That leaves a single defensive back to cover two potential touchdown scorers. With an unblocked defender rushing Boyd, he needed to make a decision quickly.

Instead of making a decision quickly, Boyd rolled out 7-8 more yards and one hopped the ball to the endzone as the rusher got to him.

I actually rarely saw a deep ball by Boyd that was not either 1) overthrown by a good amount or 2) held too long which forced the target to make it a "moment of truth" "50/50" ball.

Here's some of the overthrows in the LSU game:

He had a lot of skill position talent around that helped make up those poor deep balls by winning "50/50" jump balls.

One thing he does well, though, is get the ball out in medium/short range passes. He's got the velocity and accuracy to hit all those screens, bubbles, and slants that Clemson runs so much. Unfortunately for him, the NFL's lineman can't be down-field, even if a pass is behind the line of scrimmage, which means those throws are much rarer on the next level. His arm strength is on par with his accuracy, but his trigger on the deep ball is out-of-whack.

A lot of people are comparing Boyd to Wilson, but I just don't see it. Is Boyd a small, stocky quarterback that is elusive with the ball in his hands? Yes, but I'd have Wilson a notch better in that category and in almost every passing category coming out of college. If Russell Wilson got drafted in the third round, what makes us think Boyd will get drafted higher than him?

Boyd is an exciting passer that evades rushers by stepping up in the pocket or simply outrunning them. He throws hard, but doesn't always have the best timing, which leads his targets to make the play. He runs the zone read out of the pistol, which are quickly becoming the newest trends in the NFL. So did Matt Scott. Undrafted free agent, Matt Scott. I understand all of that will excite people when they watch Boyd, but he still holds the ball too long and isn't very good deep.

Overall he's not a bad quarterback prospect, but he's far from the first rounder some are projecting him as. I'd take him as a very late Day 2, most likely Day 3 project quarterback that needs time to refine his ability. Russell Wilson got picked 75th overall. I'm going to go on record saying Boyd gets drafted after #75 in the 2014 NFL Draft. Boyd losing his starting running back and a starting receiver won't help his stock.

A.J. McCarron (QB Alabama) Pre-2013 Scouting Report

This year I plan to dig deep into the quarterback class. In the first installment of my "Pre-2013 Scouting Report" series I'll be looking at A.J. McCarron, Alabama's quarterback.

Timeline:
2009: Redshirted while Greg McElroy won the starting job.
2010: Sat behind Greg McElroy, a senior, as the #2 QB. Only other QB to throw a pass besides McElroy.
2011: Beat out Phillip Sims (highly touted coming out of high school, transferred to Virginia afterwards) to be the 2011 starter.
2012: Started his second season and earned 2nd team SEC, behind Heisman Winner Johnny Manziel.
2013: Projected to start for his third year.

I know most people don't take into account of stats when scouting, nor should they, but I wanted to look into "advanced" statistics of the major prospects in this class, so that I could get some numbers that were on about the same field. Those metrics are YPDB (yards per drop back, Yards/DB), TD % (touchdown percentage, TD/DB), Int % (interception percentage, Int/DB), Sack % (sack percentage, Sack/DB), and DB (drop backs, Attempts+Sacks). Nothing too complicated.

McCarron's TD% and Int% reflect what I saw on tape. He's efficient. He scored best in those two categories, doing better than Tajh Boyd, Zach Mettenberger, Aaron Murray, Logan Thomas, David Fales, Stephen Morris, Bryn Renner, and Derek Carr. I actually caught all three of his interceptions when watching him. One of the three was a bounce off a wide receiver's hands (in the TAMU game) that ended up landing right into a defenders palms. The other two were in goal line situations when he just forced it. Against TAMU he threw another interception on 4th and goal from the 5, which was ripped out of his target's hands and ended the game.

To put in perspective, McCarron's Int% was 0.89%, the next closest is Stephen Morris's which is almost double at 1.60%.

McCarron could play the "game manager" role really well at the NFL. He's got good short/medium accuracy and makes good decisions with the football. What I'm most worried about him, though, is his ability to throw the ball down-field.

His game against Texas A&M could have been his worst in 2012. He threw two of his three interceptions in the game, and Alabama received it's sole loss of the season. In that game McCarron had four plays that were sure fire huge plays/touchdowns if he would have hit his guy in stride.

[1]

Michael Williams is being covered by the S, who had his eyes stuck in the backfield. Michael Williams becomes the deepest man on the football field and the S turned his back to McCarron.

As McCarron is passing, Williams still had the space to make the play.

The ball gets to Williams, but it didn't get to him at the right speed. Williams had to slow down for the ball, which gave the S enough time to catch up and turn to make the deflection.

Here's a closer look at the deflection.

[2]

The next play involves Amari Cooper. Cooper is running a deep route when the CB, who was on an island covering him, slips and Cooper is left wide open down-field.

When the pass is made Cooper has plenty of space to make a play after the catch.

The pass was behind Cooper, who has to slow down and turn back for the catch. The DB catches up to him at the 45 and Cooper gets very little YAC on the play due to the pass being behind his stride.

[3]

Unlike the last time McCarron had Cooper open, he hit him perfectly in stride.

It resulted in a touchdown.

[4]

This is the biggest mistake McCarron had, in my opinion. Kenny Bell broke coverage with around 4 minutes left in the forth quarter, when the Crimson Tide were down 4 points.

McCarron again put too much air under the ball. Not only did one defender catch up to him, but two did. Bell went down as soon as he caught the ball.

After that catch, Alabama was set up with a 1st and Goal in a "must get a touchdown" situation. They failed to make it in their first three tries, leading to a do or die 4th and Goal situation. McCarron threw a strike to the right-side of the endzone, which resulted in that interception where the DB ripped the ball out of the WR's hand that I talked about earlier. If McCarron would have hit Bell on that pass, it's easy to assume they would have gone up 2 with less than 4 minutes left, instead of falling to Texas A&M's feet on a goal line interception.

McCarron really only threw a good pass on one of four coverage fails by Texas A&M. Even though he connected on three deep passes, he left potential points on the table three out of four times.

He needs to become more consistent on the deep throws. His arm strength just isn't up to par in that part of his game. While he can get the ball to a target on deep plays, a majority of the time it's rainbow throws with too much air underneath the ball. If you look at short, accurate throws like swings and screens, you can also see his lack of velocity on the ball, there.

McCarron does have really nice accuracy, though, and is extremely well off of the play action and to the right side of the field. I'm not sure there is someone I would trust working on the right sideline more than him this class. Working outside of the pocket on rollouts might be better for him. He's not speedy, per se, but he's mobile enough to make some plays (often tries to make something out of nothing and ends up getting nothing, though) and seems more comfortable throwing deep passes while rolling left.

While he throws mostly out of the shotgun, I wouldn't be surprised if he succeeded in an action heavy under-center offense on the pro level. Very rarely do you see shotgun heavy guys transitioning better in an under-center pro offense, but he could be the exception.

Besides hiding his deep ball behind the talent of his teammates, there is a question of what he'll do under pressure, just because his offensive line was so good. The strong running game of Alabama also kept defenses more honest, which meant fewer blitzes for him. When he is pressured, he tries to do too much with his legs, instead of making plays with his arm against the defense with less than idle amount of men in coverage.

Alabama lists him at 6'4" 214, which is a little skinny, but not bad for a quarterback.

Overall, he's a solid quarterback that needs to work on his deep ball, but he could be a solid "game manager" at this point. If he plays like he did in the National Championship every game he could easily be a first round pick, but he hasn't shown enough consistency with the deep ball. There are rumors that he scored in the 3rd-4th round range in the Draft Advisory Board's projection, which is a little low for me. I think he is most likely a Day 2 prospect, but we'll learn a lot more about McCarron in 2013, after losing his starting RT, LG, C, TE, and RB in the 2012 NFL Draft._________________

BTW Louis Nix III is a 1 man wrecking crew. I would love to have him in Green Bay but I wouldn't be surprised to hear his name in the top 5-10 range.

Nix is great, but Tuitt is going to be the star.

ND is gonna be nice again, and I cant wait!

No doubt. Tuitt is the better player right now. That is a 3-4 DE who can easily play 4-3 end, ELITE movement for a guy that size. IMO Nix could be just as good as Tuitt, he just isn't yet. Both are on my top 5-10 radar for next year.

I see strictly NT for Nix. Maybe I'm wrong, but I don't see him as an end._________________

BTW Louis Nix III is a 1 man wrecking crew. I would love to have him in Green Bay but I wouldn't be surprised to hear his name in the top 5-10 range.

Nix is great, but Tuitt is going to be the star.

ND is gonna be nice again, and I cant wait!

No doubt. Tuitt is the better player right now. That is a 3-4 DE who can easily play 4-3 end, ELITE movement for a guy that size. IMO Nix could be just as good as Tuitt, he just isn't yet. Both are on my top 5-10 radar for next year.

I see strictly NT for Nix. Maybe I'm wrong, but I don't see him as an end.

I think he is a guy who could learn the LDE position in our defense a la Pickett but his value lies as a 0,1 or 3, mostly a 0 or 1. I am just saying, I think at the next level there is a chance that Nix's ceiling is very close or the same as Tuitt just at a different position. Watch that Alabama game, man Nix ate Jones' lunch, then beat him up and took his lunch money for the day after!