Saturday, November 19, 2011

In my preseason picks I had MU cruising on offense to an easy 3-0 start, before a combination of being in the Virgin Islands and facing their first tough defense from Drake or Mississippi dropped them to 3-1. Obviously tomorrow I will be hoping I was wrong in the preseason.

Vander Blue’s explosion Friday night to hit his first 9 shots, including two treys, en route to a 95-73 win caps an incredible opening three games during which MU scored an average of 17 points per game MORE than predicted for an average 95-60 win on 76 trips per game down the court:

1st 3 games

MU

Opponents

Trips

Predicted

78

60

67

Actual

95

60

76

However, heading into Sunday’s clash, Mississippi’s defense has also been even better than expected, with the top shot-blocking duo in the country leading by far the best defense MU will have faced:

Defense Faced

Rank

Mount St. Mary’s

223rd

Norfolk State

246th

Winthrop

133rd

Mississippi (Sunday)

27th

MUs 99-point performance against Norfolk State did look even more impressive when Norfolk State shut out Drexel for more than six minutes Friday night en route to a huge upset that pits them against TCU in the other semifinal that will determine MUs opponent Monday night at 7:30 CST, should the Warriors win Sunday night.

But when you match up MU’s incredible offensive punch against Mississippi’s defense, you see this will be a real test position-by-position.

At 6-9, Henry a matchup problem and one of top shot-blockers and rebounders (14 Reb. Friday)

C

Otule 9 ppg, 5 rpg; Gardner 8 of 10 from floor

Cox may start, but 6-8 Buckner 2nd best shot blocker in country behind James of Flo St.

Is MU so confident and on a roll that they can overcome Mississippi’s defense to set up a Monday night championship game against upset winners Norfolk State or TCU, or will Mississippi be able to frustrate MU and grind out the win?Among players returning to a major conference, the following are the top shot-blockers based on the percentage of opponents’ two-points shots they block: