Produced within the framework of the COPEC II research program, the publication provides an analysis of the interaction between European energy and climate policies, based on both historical data (back to 2005) and projections (up to 2030). The report also offers recommendations to mitigate counteractive interactions between policies and build a climate and energy framework consistent with the Paris Agreement before 2030.

The key findings of this report are:

The negotiations on the EU 2030 climate and energy framework are an opportunity to implement a coherent and ambitious policy mix in the EU and fulfill its commitment under the Paris Agreement.

The EU ETS and the ESR do not ensure the achievement of the EU’s NDC by 2030.

The carbon budgets set by the EU ETS and the ESR should be calibrated carefully in order to be efficient.

Renewable energy sources and increased energy efficiency contributed greatly to reducing GHG emissions over 2005-2015 and are projected to remain the main drivers of reduction in the post-2020 period.

Emissions reductions create counterproductive interactions with other policies, such as the EU ETS and the ESR, when not appropriately taken into account. The agreed reform of the EU ETS is not expected to be sufficient to mitigate these interactions.

Legislation under negotiation will fall short of the EU long-term ambition, which is itself insufficient to meet the objectives set during the Paris Agreement and should aim at net-zero emissions by 2050.

The EU policy package should align with the 2030 climate and energy framework to mitigate policy interaction, and with an increased long-term ambition in line with the Paris Agreement.