re: Boston Red Sox sign C/1B/DH Mike Napoli to three year deal (Posted on 12/3/12 at 12:33 pm to tduecen)

but will he get as many good pitches to hit in boston as he as the last two years in tx?

quote:We are looking at a small sample size but the 4 season he managed 350 or more AB he hit .227, .320, .238, and .272..... I don't see him ever coming close to .320 again and doubt in a full time roll he would be much better than .240 (although playing in Fenway may actually boost it as he has good numbers in Fenway)

re: Boston Red Sox sign C/1B/DH Mike Napoli to three year deal (Posted on 12/3/12 at 1:14 pm to tduecen)

This is about how I feel about it.

per Fangraphs

quote:A second thing this does is install Mike Napoli at first base for a while. Napoli is said to be coming off a down season at the plate, but incidentally:

Mike Napoli, 2012: 114 wRC+ Adrian Gonzalez, 2012: 115 wRC+

Napoli’s 2012 was poor relative to his 2011, but Napoli’s 2011 was uncharacteristically amazing, and it’s that season that stands out as the anomaly. The strikeout rate didn’t make sense. Napoli’s going to walk, Napoli’s going to go deep, and Napoli’s going to whiff. As he has been, he will presumably continue to be.

Napoli, clearly, is a non-elite bat. He doesn’t make a positive contribution running the bases, and he’s not about to win a Gold Glove at first base. He’s made valuable by his power, and the best way to describe his contract with the Red Sox is “fair”. The Red Sox aren’t getting him at a bargain, and the Red Sox also aren’t getting Napoli as a potential albatross, which was never going to happen given the limited number of suitors. Three years and $39 million seems like the right price for a good hitter on the wrong side of 30. It was probably crucial for the Red Sox to get this done now so that they can turn their attention to other parts of the roster in need.

Something that’s been noted is that Napoli has hit the crap out of the ball in Fenway Park, to the tune of a 1.107 career OPS. That’s undeniably true, over a sample of 73 plate appearances. Over a sample of 70 plate appearances, Napoli has generated a .657 OPS in US Cellular. You can see where this is going. Napoli is by no means a bad fit for Fenway, but he isn’t an unusually good fit, and he’s coming from Texas, which is just as righty-friendly. As it happens, Napoli has seven career homers in Boston — one to left, two to left-center, one to center, two to right-center, and one to right. He’ll hit his home runs, and he’ll spread them around.