Sure, everyone expected Greece to buckle. But what if Greece did buckle for the nth time? Greece was eventually going to default anyway.

There is not now, nor was there ever, anything “unreal” about the inevitable default.

Earlier today German officials said “European taxpayers have been generous” to Greece. What a hoot. Now, that’s “unreal”.

What’s also “unreal” is forcing €330 billion worth of debt on a tiny country, pretending that it can be paid back.

This alleged “generous” bailout did nothing but bail out banks while forcing a hellacious depression on Greece. Taxpayers have not foot the bill yet, but they will, thanks to bondholder and bank bailouts.

Some blame Greece. And to be sure Greece made mistakes. But the real culprits are the ECB’s one size fits Germany interest rate policy, the stupidity of the eurozone agreement itself, the lack of a fiscal union, etc.

Everyone knew Greece lied to get into the eurozone. They let Greece in anyway. Isn’t that “unreal”?

“You’ve got to ask yourself one question. Do I feel lucky? Well, do ya, punk?” The lines spoken by Clint Eastwood in Dirty Harry sprang to mind when the International Monetary Fund (IMF) announced that it had called its Greek negotiating team home from talks in Brussels.

The IMF’s message was short and brutal. There were still major differences between Greece and its creditors. There was no progress in narrowing those differences. The two sides were well away from an agreement.

The IMF, clearly, has had enough. This, then, is the IMF holding the gun to Alexis Tsipras’s head. It feels like a pivotal moment, the point where the creditors are saying “take it or leave it” and the Greeks have to decide whether the IMF really means it.

They are fed up with Tsipras acting like he is the one holding the .44 Magnum and they are threatening to pull the trigger.

This movie climaxes next week.

Who Has the Gun?

The IMF? OK. Pull the trigger.

Tsipras wants someone to blame. If he can point the finger at the despised IMF, the IMF will effectively have shot itself.

Greece has nothing to lose. The Troika does have something to lose.

Let’s look at things from the point of the best case scenario.

Best Case Scenario

Greece defaults.

Greece sheds €330 billion worth of debt.

Greece opens up trade with Russia, killing EU sanctions once and for all (and exposing the stupidity of the unanimous nature of EU rules in the process).

It’s an excellent video, but not directly embeddable. Click on link to play.

Key Lines

Now you don’t seem so proudAbout having to be scrounging for your next meal
…
You said you’d never compromise
With the mystery tramp, but now you realize
He’s not selling any alibisAs you stare into the vacuum of his eyesAnd say do you want to make a deal?
…When you ain’t got nothing, you got nothing to lose

Speece Revisited

Some will insists this is all Greece’s fault. Most others will insist it’s primarily Greece’s fault.