153 posts in this topic

Okay, even though it's become the most annoying topic in Broncos Country - thanks in large part to a certain media outlet that has over-hyped the decision as only an affiliate of ESPN can - we really should talk about the QB battle.

On the eve of the first preseason game, where Vance and others have said repeatedly will weigh most heavily on the ultimate choice, the prevailing wisdom that has taken shape over the last week or so that Trevor has created some separation. Trevor has been steady and consistent even if unspectacular while Paxton has made more "wow" plays but also made more bad decisions and looked behind in terms reading coverages and going through progressions. All of that I just wrote had to be expected by anyone who follows the team remotely closely.

With that being said, a couple things are worth noting. One, we do not know exactly what the coaches are looking for on certain plays. It's entirely possible, and some people in the know whom I've spoken with, say that a lot of what the coaches do at camp is not about final results, i.e. if the proper read was made but the result was an interception, that's a correctable mistake but if the "safe" play was taken, i.e. an 8-yard completion on 3rd and 12, that would be considered the "wrong" play by the coaches. The Mile High Huddle podcast (which if you do not listen to it I would recommend doing do, they offer what I call "sober analysis," they're not a hype-machine or blind homers and cheerleaders) reported yesterday that one of their sources inside Dove Valley have said that Paxton has actually been the one making more "right" than "wrong" plays in these kinds of situations. We also know that Paxton is the guy Elway wants to start and without Kubiak as the HC, who was Trevor's biggest fan, he's lost a powerful voice in his corner. On the other hand, being regarded as the more cerebral QB, Trevor is likely to have a champion in Mike McCoy, whose passing offense features a lot of line of scrimmage play-calls, checks, adjustments and audibles.

So, with all that said, who do you think is going to win the QB battle? I really do not have a horse in the race; I'm not "team Trevor" or "team Paxton" and instead am "team whomever gives the Broncos the best chance to win."

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I think it was @BroncoBruin or @broncos67 who said it earlier this month - it's way easier to go with Siemian to start the season and turn to Lynch than the other way around. Lynch can make the throws Siemian can't but so far his weaknesses are still the same in real scrimmages - reading D, going through his progressions fast enough and anticipation. Physically there is no doubt he is better but those 3 obstacles need to be overcome before he can succeed.

Put Lynch in week 1 and he struggles early it's harder to go back to him later this early if you turn to Siemian. But if Siemian struggles early you put Lynch in a scenario where he's had more time to learn. And a more patient scenario than if you sit the guy who is clearly better right now in the mental game.

With 4 out of our first 5 games at home and the away game @BUF a fast start is a must. That means Lynch still can't be a work in progress to start week 1. In theory there's still time but so far Lynch has more work to do to get there.

I say the above still seeing Lynch as viable for later in 2017 or even 2018. But he was a project going in when he was picked. Year 2 week 1 was the best-case scenario ETA wise but even then not the most likely, despite what many fans hoped for last year.

For Siemian it's simple - he can be a game manager. Can he make the big throws when we don't need the game manager? Even with limited physical tools if the anticipation and placement are there it's possible. While I have no doubt in Siemian's mental game the anticipation to overcome average arm strength has to be at elite levels not just good to great. That's also a tall order. But Siemian's first season shows his anticipation is very good. Can it be elite? That's his Q.

Elway's correct in that preseason games will really show a lot here. But so far Siemian is still ahead. The most likely outcome barring some really eye opening Lynch performances is Siemian starting week 1.

I said it before I hope we see both progress - because then 2018 offers the hope we can get a return on the other guy in trade and let Chad Kelly back up (in a QB rich 2018 draft nothing like the crazy rumors of 1st rounders we had in a very meh 2017 qb class but even a 3rd Rd pick would be great). With our 2018 cap we could use that type of added gain.

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While I am not of the belief either QB has WON (or will WIN) the competition, I think Paxton should be the QB this yea, and here's why I say that.

Siemien has just enough command of the offense to win us between 7-9 games, not bad but not nearly good enough to get us into the playoffs to win anything. He is also not going to get a whole lot better but remember he was a QB selected in the 7th round to fit Kubiak's system, not this one.

Paxton is by far the more talented QB, at least in the eye test but has yet to show the finer nuances of a starting QB. He is still young enough to grow into the role, some say he is more of a gamer than a practice field general. Given that premise, he has the POTENTIAL to make bigger players, impact games more which could lead to more wins, By the same token, his youth and inexperience could cost us a lot of victories. So, I say give him the experience...if he learns, we win and may have found us our QBOTF. If he loses, we have found out what we didn't know and will be in a position in the draft to try to draft our next QBOTF.

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While I am not of the belief either QB has WON (or will WIN) the competition, I think Paxton should be the QB this yea, and here's why I say that.

Siemien has just enough command of the offense to win us between 7-9 games, not bad but not nearly good enough to get us into the playoffs to win anything. He is also not going to get a whole lot better but remember he was a QB selected in the 7th round to fit Kubiak's system, not this one.

Paxton is by far the more talented QB, at least in the eye test but has yet to show the finer nuances of a starting QB. He is still young enough to grow into the role, some say he is more of a gamer than a practice field general. Given that premise, he has the POTENTIAL to make bigger players, impact games more which could lead to more wins, By the same token, his youth and inexperience could cost us a lot of victories. So, I say give him the experience...if he learns, we win and may have found us our QBOTF. If he loses, we have found out what we didn't know and will be in a position in the draft to try to draft our next QBOTF.

That's a fair premise if we look at 2018 as a rebuilding year. Thing is though that Elway & VJ aren't looking that way. Outside of the bottom 5 teams optimism springs eternal.

The potential Lynch has is why Lynch coming in if we aren't in a playoff race later in season or Siemian isn't getting it done makes total sense. But if current Lynch can lose more games now and if 2018 is the priority then Siemian gets the call to start the season. Weeks 1-5 we get 4 home games and @BUF. Realistically we have to go 4-1 to have a real shot at the division The schedule gets a lot tougher after that.

It would be a close convo if Lynch shows better D recognition, read progression and anticipation but so far he hasn't. And keep in mind while Den has a great D the preseason D's will be mostly vanilla. Nothing like regular season D formations and play calling. So Lynch is going to get a shot to show well but even then it's not regular season game speed. No one should mistake this as closing the book on Lynch His tools are hard to find just the mental game is just as important and so far it's not there (and while you can't teach Siemian the tools Lynch has, failure of the mental game is how most physically talented QB's fail, why it's far from a given).

Edited August 8 by Broncofan

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Both QB's are learning and unpolished. The entire offense is same. Not a great scenario, but this could take most of the season, if not all, to play out, assuming we are moving forward and quickly enough to avoid a reboot/retooling. Confidence is huge too, so going back and forth is not ideal. So long as the fans are patient enough to keep the news personalities from taking over we remain one front. No need to get hostile with each other if both QB's, HC, OC, etc fail to deliver this year. It's completely out of our control. There are bumps to every season and game but how quickly we learn and adjust help determine our success. I really don't know what to expect this year and next. Uncharted territory IMO...

Edited August 8 by The Helicopter

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I honestly have no idea who ends up winning the job. This isn't your typical NFL QB competition. By that I mean, Denver has a playoff caliber roster on both sides of the ball. Outside of QB, the offensive line is the only real question. The defense is loaded and likely ends up top 5 in the league (at worst). There is a ton of depth and talent at RB, and Denver has one of the best WR tandems in the NFL. Further they went out and added more weapons and speed to the offense and special teams. The offensive line was rebuilt and added 3 new starters so I don't think it's a stretch to assume that unit improves this year.

Thats what makes this decision so interesting. This is an excellent team that from a talent perspective is probably a top 5 roster in the NFL. That's where I become torn on who I want playing QB. If this was an average or worse team I would be banging the table for Lynch to be named starter. However, the NFL and its rosters wax and wane, Denvers roster isn't always going to be as elite as they are, which makes me lean on the safer choice, which is Siemian. And on the flip side of that I think Siemian is an average starter (at best) and always will be. Lynch has the talent to be a franchise QB for the next decade. Even with how elite the team is, there will probably be multiple games this season where winning will fall onto the QBs shoulders and Lynch has the talent to do it, where I don't think Siemian does.

Its a tough decision, no doubt. I think we'll see Siemian start the year with Lynch eventually taking over.

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I think Siemian wins the battle, but I don't think he wins the war, so to speak.

It's incorrect to say Siemian can't progress anymore. That statement is ludicrous and basically rooted in his draft position. The leap he made from 7th round rookie to starter and 9 wins is pretty freaking impressive. I'll say what I've said the whole time- Broncos fans are spoiled with QB play and don't know how to be patient. Young QBs, even the best in the league, take time to mature into their roles. Siemian's numbers compare favorably to Mariota, Carr, and Winston, widely regarded as the best 3 young QBs.

He isn't athletically flashy, but he is consistent and has the respect of his teammates. That counts for something. It's also hilarious that people continue to discount how poor that offense was last year and the effect that had on overall QB performance.

Lynch has the flashy arm and will hit 40 yard TDs on a dime, and will also make a bunch of boneheaded decisions and 3 and outs. It's the nature of it, he's really, really raw and not familiar with an NFL offense. I think, frankly, if our defense wasn't elite, we would just go with Lynch and see what happens, but Siemian combined with an elite defense does give us a better chance at the 10 win mark, IMO.

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I think Siemian wins the battle, but I don't think he wins the war, so to speak.

It's incorrect to say Siemian can't progress anymore. That statement is ludicrous and basically rooted in his draft position. The leap he made from 7th round rookie to starter and 9 wins is pretty freaking impressive. I'll say what I've said the whole time- Broncos fans are spoiled with QB play and don't know how to be patient. Young QBs, even the best in the league, take time to mature into their roles. Siemian's numbers compare favorably to Mariota, Carr, and Winston, widely regarded as the best 3 young QBs.

He isn't athletically flashy, but he is consistent and has the respect of his teammates. That counts for something. It's also hilarious that people continue to discount how poor that offense was last year and the effect that had on overall QB performance.

Lynch has the flashy arm and will hit 40 yard TDs on a dime, and will also make a bunch of boneheaded decisions and 3 and outs. It's the nature of it, he's really, really raw and not familiar with an NFL offense. I think, frankly, if our defense wasn't elite, we would just go with Lynch and see what happens, but Siemian combined with an elite defense does give us a better chance at the 10 win mark, IMO.

Very accurate assessment - to be fair though Siemian's physical skills are likely capped. But QB can succeed at a higher level so long as his anticipation and placement improve to elite levels. Being late is deadly for him it's why the RZ with tighter windows to fit the ball into, and being late on any reads, was a huge problem for him last year.

Given how much progress we saw in Year 1 as a starter more progress in those areas for Siemian isn't a given but it's possible. We just can't bank on it - just like we can't bank on Lynch's mental game progressing until we see more tangible evidence. Neither is a lock. If neither progress then I agree you have to start the season with Siemian. If he doesn't show more or we go into future mode then a switch to Lynch later makes sense. Unless Lynch shows a lot more progress though (and keep in mind preseason is as vanilla as it gets, so even this month isn't as reassuring but if he struggles then hard to see him being ready), Siemian looks to be most ready now.

Obviously the next 3 games are going to give us a lot more info - but the McCarron fake news shows how much both progressing would mean to us next offseason - even in a QB top heavy draft the league as a whole needs QBOTF on more than just 4-5 teams so having both progress would sure put us in great position next offseason before we have to commit more $ to the position.

Edited August 9 by Broncofan

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I think Siemian wins the battle, but I don't think he wins the war, so to speak.

It's incorrect to say Siemian can't progress anymore. That statement is ludicrous and basically rooted in his draft position. The leap he made from 7th round rookie to starter and 9 wins is pretty freaking impressive. I'll say what I've said the whole time- Broncos fans are spoiled with QB play and don't know how to be patient. Young QBs, even the best in the league, take time to mature into their roles. Siemian's numbers compare favorably to Mariota, Carr, and Winston, widely regarded as the best 3 young QBs.

He isn't athletically flashy, but he is consistent and has the respect of his teammates. That counts for something. It's also hilarious that people continue to discount how poor that offense was last year and the effect that had on overall QB performance.

Lynch has the flashy arm and will hit 40 yard TDs on a dime, and will also make a bunch of boneheaded decisions and 3 and outs. It's the nature of it, he's really, really raw and not familiar with an NFL offense. I think, frankly, if our defense wasn't elite, we would just go with Lynch and see what happens, but Siemian combined with an elite defense does give us a better chance at the 10 win mark, IMO.

You know someone else who had a year comparable to Siemian? Mike Glennon. Yet the two teams he's been on have drafted QBs in the top 2 picks of the draft to replace him. Comparing simple face stats such as TDs/INTs and completion pct doesn't paint the entire picture. All the QBs you listed have shown flashes of being a franchise QB. Siemian has only shown he's capable of being a good backup that can start in a pinch. PFF had him as the QB with the most off target throws in the league. We also lead the league in 3 and outs with him starting most of the year.

I don't want to be stuck in Kyle Orton/Alex Smith-esque purgatory with a QB that's not good enough to win games on his own. At least Paxton has that potential, even though I'm not sold completely on him right now.

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Elway literally called it "fake news." I do find it interesting that the rumor was started by Sandy Clough, who's awfully well-connected and not one to just shoot from the hip about stuff. He had it on good authority that Vance was the front-runner back in January when the conventional wisdom was that Kyle would be the choice. So this is interesting.