Macau Gaming: January Softness Due To Chinese New Year, Says Deutsche

By Shuli Ren

As I mentioned in the previous blog, the weaker Macau gaming revenue growth number in January is hard to interpret, because the Chinese New Year started earlier this year on January 31. Last year, the New Year started on February 10.

Every year, Chinese gamblers go home the week before CNY, and only return to Macau after Day 3 of CNY.

This same pattern occurred in 2011. In 2011, Jan GGR gth fell to 33% yoy from 66% yoy the previous mth. The following mth, GGR gth recovered to 48% yoy. That year, Macau stocks fell 9% in early Feb after the Jan GGR data release. Stocks recovered losses by March.

For the first three weeks of Jan, Macau GGR was tracking MOP1.1bn/day, up c.20% yoy. This means the softness was concentrated on the last 10 days in Jan (MOP720m/day). This pre-CNY run-rate does not cause us any concern as the 9 days before last year’s CNY (1-9 Feb 2012) had a similar run-rate of MOP750m/day.

This year, CNY was on 31 Jan. As usual, Macau was very quiet the first two days. But starting on Monday 3 Feb, visitors began to come. Total visitor growth picked up from 5% yoy in the first 3 days of CNY to 5-8% yoy on Day 4-5. Mainland Chinese visitor growth also picked up from 11-13% yoy in the first 3 days to 12-16% yoy on Day 4-5.

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JUNE 18, 2015 10:40 P.M.

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