First Online: 08 December 2008Received: 08 February 2008Accepted: 08 December 2008

Abstract

BackgroundThe aim of this study, conducted in Europe, was to develop a validated risk factor based model to predict RSV-related hospitalisation in premature infants born 33–35 weeks- gestational age GA.

MethodsThe predictive model was developed using risk factors captured in the Spanish FLIP dataset, a case-control study of 183 premature infants born between 33–35 weeks- GA who were hospitalised with RSV, and 371 age-matched controls. The model was validated internally by 100-fold bootstrapping. Discriminant function analysis was used to analyse combinations of risk factors to predict RSV hospitalisation. Successive models were chosen that had the highest probability for discriminating between hospitalised and non-hospitalised infants. Receiver operating characteristic ROC curves were plotted.

ResultsAn initial 15 variable model was produced with a discriminant function of 72% and an area under the ROC curve of 0.795. A step-wise reduction exercise, alongside recalculations of some variables, produced a final model consisting of 7 variables: birth ± 10 weeks of start of season, birth weight, breast feeding for ≤ 2 months, siblings ≥ 2 years, family members with atopy, family members with wheeze, and gender. The discrimination of this model was 71% and the area under the ROC curve was 0.791. At the 0.75 sensitivity intercept, the false positive fraction was 0.33. The 100-fold bootstrapping resulted in a mean discriminant function of 72% standard deviation: 2.18 and a median area under the ROC curve of 0.785 range: 0.768–0.790, indicating a good internal validation. The calculated NNT for intervention to treat all at risk patients with a 75% level of protection was 11.7 95% confidence interval: 9.5–13.6.

ConclusionA robust model based on seven risk factors was developed, which is able to predict which premature infants born between 33–35 weeks- GA are at highest risk of hospitalisation from RSV. The model could be used to optimise prophylaxis with palivizumab across Europe.