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Weekly Outlook for October 10-14

October 9, 2011

The second week of October is upon us and here are the main events and reports for the upcoming week include: ECB rate decision, Ben Bernanke’s testimony, OPEC monthly report, G20 meeting, FOMC meeting minutes, Australia’s unemployment rate and U.S.’s trade balance report. Here is an economic news calendar for the week of October 10th to October 14th that highlights the main news items and reports related to the U.S., Canada, China, Euro Area and Australia.

(all times GMT):

Tuesday 11th of October 08:30 – ECB conference Trichet Speaks: Following last week’s ECB interest rate decision in which, despite expectations Jean Claude Trichet, President of the European Central Bank, announced the rate will remain unchanged at 1.5%, will talk about the ongoing economic turmoil in the Europe. This speech might affect not only the Euros to US dollar exchange rate, but also major commodities prices such as gold price;

Tuesday 11th of October 13:15 – Canadian Housing Starts: The upcoming report is regarding September 2011. In the recent August 2011 report, the seasonally adjusted housing starts reached 184,700 units, which is lower than the 204,500 units started during July 2011. This report indicates not only the progress of the Canadian real estate market, but also of the Canadian economy; if the upcoming report will show growth, it may further strengthen the Canadian dollar (see here last report).

Tuesday 11th of October tentative –OPEC monthly report: this report will show the main changes in crude oil and natural gas’s supply and demand worldwide; the report will also examine the changes in the production of OPEC countries during August; the recent drop in crude oil prices might be stem, in part, from the ongoing increase in Libya’s oil production; (See here a summary of the last September report);

Wednesday 12th of October tentative –IEA monthly oil report: this upcoming report will present an updated (as of September) outlook and analysis for the global crude oil market for 2011 and 2012 (See here a summary of the last report);

Wednesday 12th of October 15:30 – EIA Report on Crude Oil Stockpiles: the EIA (Energy Information Administration) will publish its weekly report on the U.SPetroleum market for the week ending on October 7th; last week, the US petroleum & oil stockpiles slightly declined by 4.6 million barrels to 1,770.5 million barrels (see here the recent oil stockpiles review);

Wednesday 12th of October 19:30 – FOMC meeting minutes: Following the recent FOMC meeting, in which it was decided to keep the interest rates low and the Fed’s plan to purchase LT securities in exchange of ST securities, the minutes might bring some insight regarding this decision, and the stands of the members in regards to future plans of the FOMC (see here FOMC decision);

Wednesday 12th of October 19:30 – ECB Conference Trichet Speaks: As the ECB Presidentis about to step down, this upcoming speech will be among his last as ECB President;

Wednesday 12th of October 2:30 – Australia Rate of Unemployment: in the recent report regarding August 2011 the rate of unemployment slightly inclined to 5.3%; the number of unemployed rose by 18,400 people; the number of employed slightly fell by 9,700 during August compared with July’s figures. If this trend ill continue to could further affect the Australian dollar (see here the recent report);

Thursday 13th of October 13:30 – Department of Labor Report – U.S. Unemployment Claims: Following the recent U.S. labor report, for the week ending on September 30th, initial claims inclined by 6,000 to 401,000 claims; for the week ending on September 24th, the number of insured unemployment was 3.700 million, a decrease of 52,000 compared with the previous week’s; this report could affect forex and commodities traders;

Thursday 14th of October 13:30 –Canadian Trade Balance: In the August report regarding July 2011, imports edged up and exports inclined during the month: exports increased by 2.2%, and imports slightly rose by 0.5%; as a result, the trade deficit narrowed from $1.4 billion in June to $0.75 billion in July; exports of energy products fell by 2.1%, to $8.4 billion, while exports of industrial goods and materials rose by 2.8% to $9.9 billion;

Thursday 13th of October 13:30 –American Trade Balance: This monthly report will show the changes in imports and exports of goods and services to and from the U.S, including major commodities such as crude oil during August 2011; The American trade balance report for July 2011 showed the goods deficit decreased by $6.4 billion compared with June 2011 and reached $60.6 billion; the service surplus rose by $0.4 billion to $15.8 billion; as a result, the goods and services deficit decreased during the month by $6.8 billion to $44.8 billion;

Thursday 13th of October 15:30 – EIA report on U.S. Natural Gas Market: The EIA will publish its U.S. natural gas stocks,production and consumption report for the week ending on October 6th. In the recent report, natural gas storage rose for the twenty-sixth straight week by 2.9% or by 97 Bcf to 3,409 billion cubic feet for all lower 48 states – 0.8% above the 5-year average (see here my recent natural gas storage review);

Thursday 13th of October 3:00 – Chinese CPI: in August, the Chinese inflation rate slightly slipped compared with July’s CPI and reached an annual rate of 6.2% (it was 6.5% in July); this figure is still above the China’s inflation target of 4% in annual terms. It could induce the People Bank of China’s attempts to curb the inflation pressures are starting to work;

Friday 14th of October tentative –U.S. Federal Budget Balance: this upcoming publication will show the changes in the US federal balance for September 2011; this report indicates the government debt growth and thus may affect the USD. In the previous report, the US government deficit reached in August $134 billion – nearly $4.8 billion increase from the $129 billion deficit recorded in July 2011(See here a summary of the recent report);

Friday 14th of October 10:00 – Euro Area CPI and Core Monthly Inflation (September): In the last report regarding August 2011, the annual inflation rate was 2.5%, but the flash report for September showed an increase in CPI to 3%, which could be among the key factors that affect the recent ECB decision to leave the rate unchanged;

Friday 14th of October 15:30 – Changes in U.S. Retail Sales: this report shows the monthly changes in the retail sales and food services; in last month’s report regarding August, the retail sales, when controlling for the price changes, slightly rose by 0.5% from the previous month; gasoline stations sales rose by 0.3% in August compared with July 2011, and were 20.8% above sales in August 2010; this report could indicate the changes in U.S demand for gasoline (see here my review of the recent report).

Friday and Saturday 14th and 15th of October 19:00 –G20 Meeting: in this meeting the financial ministers of the G20 countries will discuss the current European debt crisis and the global economic slowdown.