Tuesday, September 26, 2006

On the Madden Curse

I just responded to an email from blog reader Scott C. and I thought it might be worth posting to everyone. Scott's email was confirming how crazy the Madden Curse is. (He also points out that there might be an "ESPN Mobile" curse. How is Reggie Bush's draft strategy working out?)

I was thinking about why (or how) the Madden Curse exists and what it means. It might have something to do with this:

EA tends to pick players coming off career years -- applying the ol' "regression to the mean" theory, the cover players have nowhere to go but down, including freak injuries (or other injuries that aren't so "freak").

So it stands to reason that if EA took players on the rise (rather than at the top of their game), yes, they would increase the variance their cover guy might have an off-year -- but also perhaps mitigate the chance they suffer the curse.

(And what's the risk of an "off-year" by a rising player as compared to a season-killing year by the league's biggest star nicked by the Curse?)

Anyway, I have to believe EA doesn't think the Curse is a bad thing. In fact, I strongly believe they think it's incredibly awesome. It gives them a ton more mileage out of the brand -- and keeps people talking about the game long after the game is released and does the bulk of its sales.

(For example, they get a bump when the cover athlete is named AND they get a bump when the cover athlete is inevitably hurt. This bookends the actual "Maddenoliday" release day, which is an event in and of itself.)

I think I wrote about this in the Quickie a few years ago, but it's so obvious now:

The Madden Curse has replaced the SI Jinx as the "cool" cultural milestone for the inevitability of spectacular future failure.

12 comments:

So true. Let's imagine, for a moment, that EA put the other logical choice from last season on the cover: Larry Johnson. Then, the curse would be as follows: all-world left tackle Willie Roaf retires, quarterback Trent Green knocked out with severe concussion, offense falters and Larry's record-breaking season evaporates as defenses begin to stack the box with eight or nine men.

Laurels are leaves from a laurel tree...used to make the wreaths that Olympic athletes (and the ancieng gods) had on their heads. (Also, Roman emperors if you think about it). Anyway, resting on your laurels is like that..resting on your past accomplishments.

chris, the reason EA didn't put out a baseball title this year is because another company, I believe take two or sega, bought exclusive third party rights to the MLB license. Unlike EA who bought exclusive rights to the NFL's license (making them the ONLY company allowed to use real players), the baseball license means that Sony, Microsoft and Nintendo can develop baseball games for there own consoles (hence first party), but only take two/sega can produce a title that goes across all platforms (tird party). So EA's only choices were to produce a baseball game with no license - and therefore no real teams, players, or stadiums,- or just not produce a game at all.

I do agree though that the last two maddens have been a bit of a disappointment. I like the blocking controls in this years game when you play against a human opponent, but that's about it.

P.S. if there is an ESPN mobile curse, then Shaun Alexander is double cursed, as he did the commercial where he had the freak accident involving a lemon wedge and a weiner dog...so maybe it is actually ESPN mobile's fault and not madden. lol

Isn't another plausible explanation for "The Curse" that NFL players are so competitive that they push themselves just that little bit further when playing against the Madden Cover Boy? Defenses, especially linebackers and safeties, key on the cover boy, pursue him with more urgency, hit him with that extra pop, etc., increasing the chances of injury. You hear all the time in the news how players are offended about their ratings, being on the cover would just increase this animosity. Ray Lewis may have been able to avoid "The Curse" because, being a defensive player, he was usually doing the hitting, and when he was hit, it was usually by one man trying to simply move him away from a running lane, not stop all motion.

Connect With Me

Quickish

About This Blog

DanShanoff.com is a sports-blog spin-off of my long-time ESPN.com column, "The Daily Quickie." Anchored by an early-morning post of must-know topics, the blog is updated frequently throughout the day with new posts and user comments.