Pattern Evidence

Developing Statistical Foundations for Pattern Evidence

Most forms of pattern evidence are not built on an agreed-upon underlying quantitative framework. Forensic scientists typically reduce crime scene pattern evidence to a set of features to examine and analyze, which leaves room for inconsistencies and varying certainties — and lessens the strength of the forensic evidence. DNA evidence, with an underlying biological science and probabilistic model, provides a roadmap for how forensic science, data and statistical methods can enable forensic scientists to best draw conclusions from pattern evidence.

CSAFE researchers work to develop explicit probability models for the measurements obtained from forensic pattern evidence and to use these models to draw conclusions about the probative value of pattern evidence. Research is underway to:

Develop a taxonomy of acceptable probabilistic/statistical reporting of forensic evidence.