Turnout for Police Commissioner elections in Wales 'could be under 10%'

Turnout for this week’s Police and Crime Commissioner elections in Wales could be lower than 10%, experts have warned.

Alun Michael is standing for Police and Crime Commissioner in South Wales

Turnout for this week’s Police and Crime Commissioner elections in Wales could be lower than 10%, experts have warned.

It comes as the Home Secretary last week refused to say whether a vote on a 10% or 15% turnout would be considered to be a democratic mandate.

In Wales, 15 candidates in total are fighting four seats, in North Wales, Dyfed Powys, South Wales and Gwent.

But despite the elections being hailed as one of the biggest changes to policing in 50 years, many voters are still unaware of what the commissioners will be able to do, while still more do not know who the candidates are for their area.

Dr Timothy Brain, of the Cardiff-based Universities’ Police Science Institute, and former Chief Constable of Gloucestershire Police, said turnout on Thursday should be judged against that for standalone council elections, when there are no general or assembly elections happening at the same time.

“Normally in a local authority election you would expect to get around 30-35% and anything less I would say is a failure in terms of giving people an active vote,” he said.

“If they get 30-35% the Government will be very happy with that. But the way people are talking there is every possibility it could be a very, very low turnout and I think the Government needs to take a lot of the blame for that because they didn’t allow candidates to do mailshots or posters.

“This is an extraordinarily low profile election. Today I have been driving between Wolverhampton and Dudley and if this was even a local election there would be billboards and posters out encouraging you to vote for a local party and local candidate. This kind of campaigning is completely absent in this election.

“The fact it is happening in November is also a problem as it’s not a time of year to hold an unusual election.

“I have heard people who have a kind of active apathy, if you can have that oxymoron. People are saying they are irritated by others trying to make them vote and they don’t think this is something they should be voting on, so they are deliberately abstaining. These are people actively saying, ‘we are not going to vote’.”

If turnout is as low as has been warned, he said elected commissioners should be wary of claiming a their democratic mandate too strongly.

“If it is less [than 30%] can they claim legitimacy? Some say they can, as if we don’t vote that’s our fault, but if it’s a low turnout I would encourage them to use that democratic mandate cautiously,” he said.

“If they say, ‘I have got a mandate’ the first response will be, ‘actually, you’ve only got 20% of a mandate’. But technically, no matter the turnout, it is a mandate and we have got it for at least 20 to 25 years.”

While many people in Wales might be unaware of what they are voting for, Dr Brain said the country is at least at an advantage because voters are more familiar with the supplementary vote system being used, in which a voter is asked to choose a first and second preference, because a similar system is used in Assembly elections.

Fears over low turnout have been compounded by last-minute plans to print bilingual ballots for Welsh voters, which led to an estimated £350,000 of English-only ballot papers being shredded. The Government said the cost of the papers would be met from the £75m budget for the elections.

Last week Home Secretary Theresa May insisted the commissioners, who will replace existing police authorities, will be visible, accessible and accountable.

But she refused to say whether a vote on a 10% or 15% turnout would be considered to be a democratic mandate.

She told BBC Radio 4’s Today programme: “I never set a turnout threshold for any election and I’m not going to do it now.

“What I do know is the people who are elected as police and crime commissioners will have something that the current police authorities do not have.

“For the first time ever, they will have a democratic mandate for the people for the work they’re doing.”

But Mrs May repeatedly refused to say what proportion of the 35 million eligible voters would need to cast their ballot to create a democratic mandate.

She also insisted that the operational independence of the police means they will always “be able to investigate and arrest without fear or favour”.

Alun Michael, who stood down as MP for Cardiff South and Penarth in order to fight the election in South Wales, said ministers were to blame for the lack of interest.

“I think it will be a pity if lots of people talk us into a low turnout when what we should be doing is encouraging everybody to look at the options and to vote,” he said.

“Having said that, the blame for people’s lack of interest has to be laid fairly and squarely at the door of ministers. In any other election, parliamentary, assembly and in every council election every candidate is able to have their literature delivered to every household and that’s fair on candidates, and also fair on the electorate, who are then guaranteed to have information so they are able to express their opinions.

“In this case that hasn’t been provided and certainly I can say the Labour party doesn’t have money for this election. After the [Labour candidate] selection was made it was, ‘Congratulations, now you’re on your own.

“This was a big flagship initiative on the part of the Conservatives to have police commissioners but they don’t seem to have the will or wherewithal for the election to be done properly.”

Ian Johnston, an independent candidate for Gwent, said while turnout percentages may be low, because of the larger area involved the real numbers may be just as high or higher than the number of people who vote for their local MP or AM.

He said: “We’re looking here in Gwent at 15-20% and a low turnout is no good to anyone. But in Gwent, 20% of people voting would be 112,000. How many people actually vote in an MP to sit in Westminster?

“In our part of the world there has not been much appetite for this election but it was a policy that was in the manifesto of our elected Government and we are going to be getting it.”

Voters will go to the polls for the new commissioners in the 41 force areas outside London on November 15.

The directly-elected commissioners will have the power to set precepts and budgets, determine policing priorities and hire and fire chief constables.

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