question

What modulates our Sun? The majority of science work on the principle that the Sun is self modulating and each solar cycle is a product of a random number generator. There are others that suspect the Sun is modulated by the planets with a special emphasis on Uranus & Neptune. Thanks to Carl Smith who has recently left us we have new knowledge that significantly adds to Jose, Landscheidt & Charvàtovà's work.

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17 Sep 2017 – Two other national parks, Yellowstone and Grand Teton, also reported snowfall.

Rocky Mountain National Park posted a snapshot from their Alpine Visitor Center camera, saying that it’s the first snow to hit the high country there this season and that some roads were closed as a result.

On it’s Facebook page, Yellowstone said that the hills east of Mammoth Hot Springs were blanketed Saturday morning, and that the winter-like weather was expected to continue.

As in Rocky Mountain National Park, some Yellowstone roads were closed due to the snow, but reopened Sunday morning.

“Numerous ski areas are closed again due to sub-zero, whiteout, blizzard conditions,” says Salmond (This was on September 17th.)

“At 11am it is snowing, we have 30-60km/h winds in the base area and 60-100km/h on the ridgeline. Forecast: Low cloud and low visibility is expected for much of the day and 25-35cm [1 foot] of wind affected snow is possible today creating HIGH AVALANCHE HAZARD above the final stretch of our access road.” [my emphasis]

Mt Hutt’s record-breaking snow base of last week has again been broken today with 3.7 metres [over 12 feet] while the MSM weather reports simply said: “the odd spot of rain in the foothills.”

“President Trump promised to bring fresh ideas and policies to Washington. Now Interior Secretary Ryan Zinke and Agriculture Secretary Sonny Perdue are doing exactly that in a critically important area.” – Paul Driessen

“Already this year, more acres than in New Jersey have disappeared in wildfires – 1.1 million acres in Montana alone,” says Driessen. “The infernos exterminate habitats, immolate wildlife that can’t run fast enough, leave surviving animals to starve, and incinerate organic matter and nearly every living creature in the thin western soils. Many areas will not recover their biodiversity for decades.

“Far more horrific, the conflagrations destroy people’s homes – and kill fire fighters and families that cannot get away quickly enough, or get trapped by sudden walls of flames. Radical environmentalists naturally blame “dangerous manmade climate change” for the death and destruction.

“Thankfully, the Interior and Agriculture Departments have proposed long overdue policies to manage our western forests properly, remove dead and diseased trees, and prevent the horrible fires that have destroyed so many forests and killed so many people and animals in recent years.”

________________________

Finally, some commonsense western fire policies

New DOI and DOA policy to cut overgrown, diseased, dead and burned trees is long overdue

By Paul Driessen

President Trump promised to bring fresh ideas and policies to Washington. Now Interior Secretary Ryan Zinke and Agriculture Secretary Sonny Perdue are doing exactly that in a critically important area: forest management and conflagration prevention. Their actions are informed, courageous and long overdue.

Westerners are delighted, and I’ve advocated such reforms since my days on Capitol Hill in the 1980s.

As of September 12, amid this typically long, hot, dry summer out West, 62 major forest fires are burning in nine states, the National Interagency Fire Center reports. The Interior Department and Ag Department’s Forest Service have already spent over $2 billion fighting them. That’s about what they spent in all of 2015, previously the most costly wildfire season ever, and this season has another month or more to go. The states themselves have spent hundreds of millions more battling these conflagrations.

Millions of acres of forest have disappeared in smoke and flames – 1.1 million in Montana alone. All told, acreage larger than New Jersey has burned already. However, even this hides the real tragedies.

The infernos exterminate wildlife habitats, roast eagle and spotted owl fledglings alive in their nests, immolate wildlife that can’t run fast enough, leave surviving animals to starve for lack of food, and incinerate organic matter and nearly every living creature in the thin soils. They turn trout streams into fish boils, minus the veggies and seasonings. Future downpours and rapid snowmelts bring widespread soil erosion into streambeds. Many areas will not grow trees or recover their biodiversity for decades.

Most horrifically, the conflagrations threaten homes and entire communities. They kill fire fighters and families that cannot get away quickly enough, or get trapped by sudden walls of flames.

In 2012, two huge fires near Fort Collins and Colorado Springs, Colorado burned 610 homes, leaving little more than ashes, chimneys and memories. Tens of thousands of people had to be evacuated through smoke and ash that turned daytime into choking night skies. Four people died. A 1994 fire near Glenwood Springs, CO burned 14 young firefighters to death.

These are not “natural” fires of environmentalist lore, or “ordinary” fires like those that occur in state and privately owned and managed forests. Endless layers of laws, regulations, judicial decrees and guidelines for Interior and Forest Service lands have meant that most western forests have been managed like our 109 million acres of designated wilderness: they are hardly managed at all.

Radical ideas and policies

Environmentalists abhor timber cutting on federal lands, especially if trees might feed profit-making sawmills. They would rather see trees burn, than let someone cut them. They constantly file lawsuits to block any cutting, and too many judges are all too happy to support their radical ideas and policies.

Thus, even selective cutting to thin dense stands of timber, or remove trees killed by beetles or fires, is rarely permitted. Even fire fighting and suppression are often allowed only if a fire was clearly caused by arson, careless campers or other human action – but not if lightning ignited it. Then it’s allowed to burn, until a raging inferno is roaring over a ridge toward a rural or suburban community.

The result is easy to predict. Thousands of thin trees grow on acreage that should support just a few hundred full-sized mature trees. Tens of billions of these scrawny trees mix with 6.3 billion dead trees that the Forest Service says still stand in eleven western states. Vast forests are little more than big trees amid closely bunched matchsticks and underbrush, drying out in hot, dry western summers and droughts – waiting for lightning bolts, sparks, untended campfires or arsonists to start super-heated conflagrations.

Flames in average fires along managed forest floors might reach several feet in height and temperatures of 1,472° F (800° C), says Wildfire Today. But under extreme conditions of high winds and western tinderboxes, temperatures can exceed 2,192° F (1200° C), flame heights can reach 165 feet (50 meters) or more, and fires can generate a critter-roasting 100,000 kilowatts per meter of fire front. Wood will burst into flame at 572° F. Aluminum melts at 1,220 degrees, silver at 1,762 and gold at 1,948° F!

Most of this heat goes upward, but super-high temperatures incinerate soil organisms and organic matter in thin western soils that afterward can support only stunted, spindly trees for decades.

These fires also emit prodigious quantities of carbon dioxide, fine particulates and other pollutants – including mercury, which is absorbed by tree roots from rocks and soils that contain this metal, and then lofted into the sky when the trees burn.

Rabid greens ignore these hard realities – and divert discussions back to their favorite ideological talking points. The problem isn’t too many trees, they insist. It’s global warming and climate change. That’s why western states are having droughts, long fire seasons, and high winds that send flames past fire breaks.

Global warming, global cooling and climate change have been part of the Earth and human experience from time immemorial.

Natural climate fluctuations brought the multi-decade Anasazi drought, the Dust Bowl and other dry spells to our western states. To suggest that this summer’s heat and drought are somehow due to mankind’s fossil fuel use and related emissions is deliberately delusional nonsense.

Neither these activists nor anyone in Al Gore’s climate chaos consortium can demonstrate or calibrate a human connection to droughts or fires. Rants, rhetoric and CO2-driven computer models do not suffice. And even if manmade (plant-fertilizing) carbon dioxide does play a role amid the powerful natural forces that have always controlled climate and weather, reducing US fossil fuel use would have zero effect.

China, India, Indonesia and Vietnam alone are building 590 new coal-fired power plants right now, on top of the hundreds they have constructed over the past decade. Overall, more than 1,600 new coal generators are planned or under construction in 62 countries. People in developing countries are also driving far more vehicles and making great strides in improving their health and living standards. They will not stop.

It has nothing to do with climate change

Western conflagrations jump fire breaks because these ferocious fires are fueled by the unprecedented increase in combustibles that radical green policies have created. These monstrous fires generate their own high winds and even mini tornados that carry burning branches high into the air, to be deposited hundreds of feet away, where they ignite new fires. It has nothing to do with climate change.

Remove some of that fuel – and fires won get so big, hot, powerful and destructive. We should also do what a few environmentalist groups have called for: manage more areas around buildings and homes – clearing away brush that federal agencies and these same groups have long demanded be left in place.

Finally, we should be using more of the readily available modern technologies like FireIce from GelTech Solutions. They can suppress and extinguish fires, and protect homes, much better than water alone.

Bogus eco-activist claim

The last bogus eco-activist claim is that “fire isn’t destruction; it’s renewal. It creates stronger, more diverse ecosystems.” That may be true in managed forests, timber stands in less tinder-dry states, and forests that have undergone repeated, non-devastating fires. For all the reason presented above, it is not true for government owned and mismanaged forests in our western states.

Over 50 million acres (equal to Minnesota) are at risk of catastrophic wildfires. Right now, we are spending billions of dollars we don’t have, should not have to spend fighting all these monstrous killer blazes, and should have available to improve forests and parks and fund other vital programs.

These forests could and should create jobs and generate revenues in states where far too many lands, timber, oil and minerals have been placed off limits – primarily by urban politicians, judges and radical activists who seem determined to drive people off these western lands, turn them into playgrounds for the wealthy, and roll back other Americans’ living standards and well-being. Cleaning out dead, diseased, burned, overgrown trees would bring countless benefits. It would make our forests healthy again.

Above all, the new Interior-Agriculture approach would demonstrate that Rural Lives Matter.

Paul Driessen is senior policy analyst for the Committee For A Constructive Tomorrow (www.CFACT.org), and author of Eco-Imperialism: Green power – Black death and other books on the environment.

18 Sep 2017 – “We expect the first taste of winter at higher elevations this morning in central and southern BC,” says Special alert issued by Environment Canada.“Don’t be surprised if you see a few flakes over mountain top elevations in the next few days.”

“If the snow makes an appearance on roadways, at most a few centimetres can be expected. With road temperatures still warm from a long and hot summer, the snow is not expected to stick. However, with the possibility of snow in mind, high elevations travellers would be wise to prepare for winter driving conditions. “

According to the Vancouver Sun, the alert applies to the districts of Boundary, East Columbia, Kootenay Lake, Nicola, Okanagan Valley, Shuswap, West Columbia and West Kootenay.

“Canada’s Competition Bureau, an arm’s length agency funded by Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s government to the tune of almost $50 million annually, investigated three organizations accused of denying mainstream climate science for over a year,”writes Lorrie Goldstein in the Toronto Sun.

The three groups in question, Friends of Science, the International Climate Science Coalition, and the Heartland Institute, were accused of “making false and misleading claims about climate change, including that the sun is the main driver of climate change, not carbon dioxide, and that carbon dioxide is not a pollutant.”

The bureau ended its 14-month probe in June without filing charges, but will re-open its investigation should it receive relevant new information from the public.

“As someone who has written extensively on climate change for a decade, my view is that all of this is madness,” says Goldstein. “We are entering into dangerous territory, a fundamental attack on free speech.”

“If we’re going to use agencies of the federal government to investigate and even prosecute ‘climate deniers’, for making ‘false and misleading claims’ then let’s damn well do the same for “climate alarmists”, who do the same thing all the time.”

“I read and hear politicians making “false and misleading claims” about climate change almost daily.”

Global warming narrative losing steam with the public and policymakers

By J.H. Walker

The reason the global warming narrative is losing steam with the voting public is that the alarmism is not matching the reality of people’s experience over tens of years, coupled with the fraudulent constructed data which most – if not all – of the AGW alarmism is based on.

People don’t trust politicians with good reason. They certainly don’t trust the lying Greenpeace a terrorist organisation, and won’t buy a climate pig in a poke, which is what carbon levies on energy and carbon credits (another label for Cargo Cultism) are.

Finally, the policy makers are taking notice. In fact, they take more notice of the results of real elections rather than biased surveys the so called climate consensus is based on.

The real science is published on how the world oceans capture energy on a cyclic basis, and how that captured energy is transported from the tropics to the poles over long time scales where it is finally radiated to space.

Tropical storms are the major transport mechanism from the tropics to the poles of both heat and water vapour, with the latter being the most potent greenhouse gas.

The fact is that water vapour in the atmosphere has increase more so than CO2 as measured over the last 15 years and has far more impact on regional temperature than CO2 ever has.

A storm system will move across the area from Thursday afternoon through Saturday.

Widespread showers and some thunderstorms are
expected ahead of this system Thursday into Thursday night. Only
the highest peaks will see snow from the first part of this storm.

However, as a strong cold front moves in late Thursday night,
much colder air will be ushered in along with falling snow levels.

Widespread rain will continue across the lower elevations while
snow levels fall from above 10,000 feet Thursday night lowering to
between 6000 and 7000 feet Friday night and Saturday morning.

Significant snow is expected over Bighorn mountains later Friday
through Saturday as much colder air moves in and snow levels
lower. It’s quite possible that the Big Horn mountains see 4 to 8
inches of snow with over a foot above 10,000 feet during this
period. The lower elevations will see periods of rain during this
period, possibly mixing with or changing to snow above 6,000 to
7000 feet late Friday night or early Saturday.

Campers, hunters and other outdoor interests should keep abreast
of the latest developments on this first cold storm system of the
pre-fall season. Some of the higher trails in the Big Horn
mountains could be covered by a significant amount of snow later
Friday into Saturday. Pay attention to the latest forecast and
plan accordingly.

Freezing temperatures are also possible in the low lying areas Sunday morning behind this system.

Stay tuned for further statements from your National Weather
Service office in Riverton.

* Timing: Rain will change to snow Thursday night as snow levels
lower to around 5000 feet. Snowfall rates will peak Thursday
night. Mountain snow will continue through Friday, gradually
ending from north to south Friday night into Saturday morning.

* Accumulations: Snow accumulation of up to 2 inches on mountain
passes Thursday night, with falling snow melting on road
surfaces during daylight hours Friday. Snow accumulation of 3 to
6 inches over the Rocky Mountain Lewis Range, and up to 10
inches above pass level in the Little Belt and Boulder mountain
ranges.

Anthony Watts, of the Watts Up With That blog, listed some of the threats to criminalize skeptics under the headline, “Hate on Display — climate activists go bonkers over #Irma and nonexistent climate connection.”

“(However) with Irma ranked 7th, and Harvey ranked 18th, it’s going to be tough for climate alarmists to try connecting these two storms to being driven by CO2/global warming,” said Mr. Watts. “But they’ll do it anyway.”

Climate Depot’s Marc Morano said the heightened vitriol aimed at those who dispute the link between climate change and extreme weather events is a sign that the global warming narrative is losing steam with the public and policymakers.

“Activists have been frustrated with record number of polar bears, no acceleration of sea level, the Pause, no trends or declining trends in extreme weather and the public’s apathy,” said Mr. Morano, whose book “The Politically Incorrect Guide to Climate Change” is slated to be released in February.

“Trump has added to all of that, and we are now seeing them blow their gaskets in frustration,” he said.

.
“Why it is not obvious to all that the climate has been changing (due to natural causes, whatever they are) for hundreds of millions of years … is a mystery.” – Ray Kraft

Even though our planet was warmer than today during the Eemian Period, and even though there were no factories belching anything into the atmosphere at the time, author Conor Purcell, PhD. vainly tries to use the Eemian Period to scare us into submission.

He asserts that the warming during the Eemian and today’s warming is / was caused by higher CO2 levels.

However, he fails to account for the cause of the allegedly higher CO2 levels 120,000 years ago (he also does not specify the levels). It could not have been caused by us burning fossil fuels.

He mentions the ice age before the Eemian interglacial as 120,000 to 200,000 years long, but says little more than that about it. He does not say how far sea levels fell during that ice age.

He says nothing about the causes of the end of the Eemian or the onslaught of the most recent ice age, or the causes of the rapid global warming that started circa 12,000 years ago, which obviously could not have been caused by humans burning fossil fuels. I have read that some anthropologists think the last ice age had reduced the global human population to fewer than 10,000 circa 12,000 years ago.

He says nothing about the recurring cycles of global warming and cooling over the last 50,000,000 years, or why the geologically rapid cycles of warming / cooling suddenly began circa 50 million years ago and have continued since, with a long slow cooling trend over 50 million years.

He focuses on the near future – predicting that rising CO2 levels will cause temps 2 to 6 degrees warmer than now by 2100 with much higher sea levels.

But says nothing about accumulating ice in the Arctic and Antarctic now.

Says nothing about the next ice age that will follow, assuming the natural cycles of the last 50,000,000 years continue.

Why it is not obvious to all that the climate has been changing (due to natural causes, whatever they are) for hundreds of millions of years, it didn’t begin with us, it isn’t our fault, we can’t make it stop, our only option is to expect cycles of global warming and global cooling and adapt to climate change as it changes . . . is a mystery.

Of course, if climate change is our fault and we can make it stop, that has ENORMOUS political value.

If climate change is natural and all we can do is adapt, that has ZERO political value.

___________________________

“The moment a man forms a theory, his imagination sees in every object only the traits that favor his theory.” – Thomas Jefferson, 1787

“Australia’s spring seems to have frozen to a stall,” says reader Tom0Mason.

“I wonder how the Australian BOM (Bureau of Meteorology) explains this, or maybe they just do the usual and just do not admit it is happening. After-all their thermometers reading are ‘adjusted’ to register no lower than -10°C, regardless of the true temperature.”

“See just how mistaken a government bureau can be.”BOM Review admits skeptics were right, but say “trust us” it doesn’t matter

I talk about earthquake lights in Not by Fire but by Ice … and here they are.(See chapter 8, “Earthquake lights and Crazy Snakes.”)

Fox News reported that the quake, the strongest in a century, was accompanied by flashes of green and blue lights shooting throughout the night sky. According to an El Universal story, the lights are a naturally occurring electro-magnetic charge caused by the collapse of the rocks in the ground during the earthquake.

Uh huh. I mentioned that theory in Not by Fire but by Ice. I called it “rocks that go bump in the night.

But as I said,

“I think they’ve got it backwards. Saying that earthquakes cause electromagnetic disturbances is like saying that waterwheels make rivers flow. Electromagnetic forces cause earthquakes, not the other way around.”