As Tepco gets out of its depth in Japan, some bloggers get out of their depth on radiation

From March 2011 to August 2013, professional photographer and amateur rad-level observer Ken Rockwell observed the California cpm level rise from 18 to 30. It’s a rise, but not a serious one…this is roughly on the scale of a small leak from Sellafield: disturbing, but not dangerous. But now Ken isn’t measuring the cpms, and he doesn’t answer his email much, as far as I can tell.

This from a regular Slogger last night:

‘…..I have a screen shot that shows how the whole country [USA] got lit up for Christmas… its been over 300 cpm’s in LA for over 4 days now… those people alone are going to be at peak exposure for a lifetime within a few days… 100 is alert, 150 is shelter or leave level… Montana 500, Idaho 550… and the worst part is all the sites that were reporting the elevated levels are slowly being extinguished and then another site magically pops up next to them reading like 15 CPM’s (what a joke!!! the FDA must be taking action)… meanwhile bald eagles are dropping out of the sky dead… and all the starfish are melting? This whole mess has been massively covered up but they said that 2014 was when the plume of shit in the water would arrive on the coast and here we are… and it’s only just gotten STARTED… 150-200 on the east coast as well…’

The American Nuclear Society’s radiation measurement page on its website hasn’t been updated since June 12th 2012.

The website tested marine animals and fish last April and found the radiation levels “on a par with what you’d get from eating a banana”.

So here’s the problem: it’s five months since a regularly recorded and verifiable rad-level survey (as far as I can see) was done in the US.

Websites in the ‘alternative’ blogosphere, however, are saying that current levels range from 150-500 cpms from San Diego to Montana. So has it got much worse since last August?

The privately-owned Nuclear Emergency Tracking Center runs a real-time map showing US radiation hotspots. This is a page capture I took of the Western USA earlier this morning :

The black & yellow nuclear signs show ‘rising’ radiation levels, and the red & yellow ones ‘Level 3 radcon alert’. There is a Level 4 code (black and brown) labelled ‘concern’. There are none on this map. In fact, there are no radcon L4 spots anywhere across the US as of today, 4th January 2014. But there were on 12th December 2013:

As we can see above, four black/brown symbols were around then. Now they’re not. This is not consonant with a rising level of Fukushimi radiation, nor with danger to human life.

At the alternative blogsite WND, this was reported as follows: ‘Radiation alerts hit U.S. cities – Fukishima cited as suspected source of increasing threat….’ That’s not true: if anything, it’s falling. There are then several paragraphs of hysteria, followed by this lame ending: ‘They were listed at Radcon 4, only one step from an alert, the map showed.’ Right then: one step from an alert, but not an alert as suggested in the headline.

I remain sure that there is a major problem at Fukushima, and the latest reliable input I have from Japan is that the emergency is far more dangerous and out of control than either Tepco or the Abe government are suggesting. The USS Reagan case also looks increasingly ominous. But the above observations render the current US situation what I would call ‘confused’ rather than conclusive either way.

Genuine attempts to get at the truth of all this aren’t going to be helped by sloppy reporting and half-baked projections. I think there are signs that Washington is understating the danger. I also think that some sites with entirely different agendas show signs of overstating it. I’m becoming more convinced with every week that close exposure to Fukushima without protection is a death sentence. And I now think the OIC should give all the brown envelopes back, and move the Olympic Games. However, based on what I’ve been able to verify over the last two days, nobody is being “fried” in the US right now…or anywhere near it.

Look at it from their perspective. What reason would the governments have to tell the truth?
Surely they assume there would be panic, hysteria and a big economic backlash. Safety and the right of the public to know the truth are way at the bottom of the list of reasons for Japan and USA to level with the public.
If forced to explain why, they would justify their secrecy by saying it’s all for protecting national interests.
Similar to the BP oil disaster. Eventually, everybody will forget about it and stop writing about it, they assume
They assume wrong.
Problem is, if they were up-front about the mess from the start, our private-side nuclear experts could have been called upon to develop the best possible solutions. Instead, the lie is getting bigger and the consequences are greater because oil and radiation can’t be covered up with a shovel of dirt.
What poor judgment by our “leaders.”
Our higher power must be scratching his/her head big time.

“meanwhile bald eagles are dropping out of the sky dead… and all the starfish are melting? This whole mess has been massively covered up but they said that 2014 was when the plume of shit in the water would arrive on the coast and here we are”

“but they said that 2014 was when the plume of shit in the water would arrive on the coast”
And this is the kicker. Who’s “they”?
Because I remember in the weeks after the disaster the time line for the death of everyone in California, “they said” was weeks. Now this plume has instead travelled at 0.2mph

If the radiation is only just arriving, why were bald eagles starving three years ago, why did jellyfish start to die 4 years ago?

My concerns come primarily fromhttp://www.businessinsider.com/could-the-deepwater-horizon-tip-over-break-the-sea-floor-2010-6
“Weakened sand and salt layers above the reservoir simply collapse, turning a wide area of the outer continental shelf sea floor into an underwater sinkhole that could bleed 2 billion to 3 billion barrels of oil into Gulf waters. In addition, seismic-shock tremors roll in all directions for miles, with an unknown effect on other nearby fields, especially BP’s Thunder Horse (18 miles) field and Shell and BP’s Na Kika complex, located in Mississippi Canyon Block 474 (approximately 15 miles south-southeast of the blowout)”

The internet was awash with self important people who “knew”, “beyond any doubt” that was going to happen.
Where are they now?
Mot of them are arguing about radiation.

kimsarah
I am 100% on board with the idea that privatising risk is asking for trouble: this is how the Japanese got a crappily built reactor, a blind-eyed regulator, a government cover-up and an IOC fraud….the munneeeee.

The University of Alaska seems to be conducting some sound research on levels and Marine Life off their coast, but the total lack of any sort of co-ordinated data collection, let alone publication for any changes in radiation levels in waters off of Canada, Washington, Oregon and California coast will inevitably lead much silly speculation, as JW is pointing out. What is likely to freak our US West Coast friends is not the unseen radiation, but when the Tsunami Debris Field (allegedly the size of Texas) turns up on their beaches in the next year or so. No one seems to know if any of that stuff will be clattering the Geiger counters or not.

At 5.22am this morning (UTC & GMT) a magnitude 5.4 earthquake struck at a depth of only 2Km, in the same area as the March 2011 quake and a mere couple of hundred kilometres out to sea from the Fukushima plant. Inept and accident prone as TEPCO obviously are, what should really scare the hell out of folks living anywhere around the Pacific Rim, is the extreme likelihood of a much greater disaster there caused by further natural events such as earthquakes, tsunamis, or another direct typhoon hit.

Ken Rockwell receives thousands of emails. He rarely answers them.
He hasn’t updated his site since the 28th December. This isn’t unusual during holiday periods.
Calling him a professional Photographer maybe a stretch probably professional photography related blogger is closer to the mark. His real qualifications are in digital compression engineering. The rest of his family are the ones with the real P.H.D.’s. His photography site is full of contradictions and japes – he admits it.
When it comes to the engineering though – he’s usually on the ball. He has access to plenty of those with relevant P.H.D.’s

A little history lesson Oct 8th 1957:”The Windscale fire also caused the release of sizable amounts of radioactive iodine into the atmosphere. As a consequence, the government banned for several weeks the sale of milk produced in a 500-square-km (200-square-mile) area around the reactor site. At the time, the British government released only sketchy details of the accident and in general tried to minimize its seriousness.” The name was even changed to Sellafield to help the masses forget!.
Do you really think any government is going to be honest about radiation hazards?
Reputedly during the Iraqi Shock and Awe campaign a spike of depleted uranium regisered in the UK several days later. Under a freedom of information request the data concerning this time period was intially removed and only released after a further request..
I am sure governments have very thorough monitoring arrays in place for radiation. I am also equally sure the public will never be allowed to see the raw data.
Move along-watch your own personal propaganda machine in your living room.and remember News is just another entertainment tool to control the sheople..

Iain
That Governments lie 24/7 is not in doubt at The Slog. What IS unknown is the effect of several groups of people being mendaciously stupid in relation to Fukushima. What I want to know is: Armageddon, or a few hundred needless deaths in Japan and the US Navy?
Both deserve our ire, but the scale is, let’s face it, rather different between the two.

Probably just one of those coincidences, but the most recent issue of ForeignAffairs magazine put out by the Council on Foreign Relations has, in its book review section this month, a review of a book about US near nuclear disasters (military) over the years:

John, I’m glad to see you have been following this. It was obvious to me from when the US stopped monitoring radiation levels and began to increase “acceptable” levels of radiation that there was something afoot.

“Radiation? Seals, Sea Lions, Polar Bears, Bald Eagles, Sea Stars, Turtles, King and Sockeye Salmon, Herring, Anchovies and Sardines In The Western Part of North America All Suffering Mysterious Diseases At the Same Time”

Experts calculated that the plume of radiation would hit the coast in early 2014… so now we see a rise in airborne radiation, and in radioactive snowfall, from these you will see some results… in California state authorities have already recorded at least a 17% increase in thyroid cancer among newborns since Fukushima in 2011… newborns are very very rarely born with cancer… unless there is radiation involved.

All the links to wildlife die offs are in the articles… it’s all there… fishermen, coastal authorities, residents… look for information and reading from the people in the effected communities… anything above local level will be mythology… I will send some pics…
pics of herring that hemorrhaged to death for no reason included…

enenews is an alarmist site. Using shrills like Helen Caldicott and Arnie Gundersen as references damages their credibility
There maybe “some relevant stuff” amongst the information they hoover up, however a lot of information there is just plain rumor and chinese whispers.

They have started on netc.com to NOT LABEL elevated rates as Radcon 4 or 5 events… since the individual CPM readings (click on the spots to see the real readings, in many cases very elevated levels are posted as rad1 or 2) are the same or in most cases higher than they were in the beginning last week when all those 4’s and 5’s registered, one can only surmise more cover up… since then a bunch of these sites have disappeared… some new ones are reporting readings of 15-20 right next to old established sites reporting in the hundreds… and of course radcon 5 alerts are being suppressed… national security and all… beforeitsnews.com/environment/2013/12/radcon-5-alerts-nv-co-rising-elevated-and-concern-watch-locations-video-2487876.html

The military Industrial and latterly political complex have found their Holy Grail in the form of nuclear weapons. The agenda is set by them as also are radiation dosage levels. They are not about to put their personal genie back in the bottle and do not care how many innocents get killed along the way. Since the original Manhattan project deceit, lies and cover up have been the order of the day and there is no likelihood of any change in the future.Much of the alternative press has become hysterical in a response to a lack of hard data. However past nuclear incidents suggest the magnitude of the threat will be censored, downplayed, or rubished.

Ecclesiastes 1:18 ESV
English Standard Version
For in much wisdom is much vexation, and he who increases knowledge increases sorrow.

Russian Study: Fukushima released 100 quadrillion becquerels of cesium into atmosphere… In just ONE day — About equal to Chernobyl’s total release… enenews.com/fukushima-worst-nuclear-disaster-history-reveals-study-one-day-releases-japan-plant-100-quadrillion

And these are the numbers that we are being allowed to see… this much energy does not result in just a couple of hundred needless deaths… it may not be armageddon but when the world figures out the size of the problem… the US will crumble, the worlds economy will tag along and then the wars will begin… if we survive that… we still have 60 years of built up greenhouse gases to finish the job…

Said to effect cosmic ray flux. Need someone with expertise to say if this could be doing something to terrestrial background levels of radiation.

Speaking of the fish, it is really imho jumping the gun to blame that on Fukushima yet. There have been all sorts of malignancies and toxins found in fish for decades. At one point a few decades ago in the US before cleanup actions were taken, pregnant women were advised by official sources to stay away from certain very popular species. In the eighties there were reports in Newsweek of fish caught near LA so toxic that one meal –once– put one over the safety limit for an entire year. I personally recall discovering flounder in a NY restaurant so full of tumors that I sent it back and never went near the stuff again. That was in the early 1980’s I believe, and the government (NYState at least) was warning the public thoroughly as to which fish were to be avoided or consumed at reduced rate.

Don’t forget the very high species extinction rate going on for a long time now, even before the earth became so polluted.

For what it’s worth I’d have to agree with John, that this is a case of too many simultaneous complex variables, and guesswork at the moment. If you like, here’s one I just thought up all by myself for the sake of argument. Fracking has become endemic and is known to cause minor earthquakes. Could this lead to more release of underground radon gas, thus kicking up curies per minute here and there? Have defective Geiger counters been covertly swapped in by some nefarious group straight out of an early James Bond flick just to cause panic?

They have known since 1956 that nuclear power plants release dangerous radiation into the environment during their “daily” operations—>

In 1956 —>

“Former AEC official, John C. Bugher, declares at an American Public Health Association meeting that an atomic power program would present a much greater health threat than nuclear weapons, due to large quantities of radioactive chemicals emitted into the environment during power generation.”

…lowdose.energy.gov/timeline.aspx

If you still don’t understand how dangerous and dirty nuclear energy can be, please go to the highly recommended site ENENEWS and learn more.

It is shown that the capture and fission cross-sections of 238U and 239Pu increase with temperature within 1000 K – 3000 K range, in contrast to those of 235U, that under certain conditions may lead to the so-called blow-up modes, stimulating the anomalous neutron flux and nuclear fuel temperature growth. […]

It is known that after the loss of coolant at three nuclear reactors during Fukushima nuclear accident its nuclear fuel melted. It means that the temperature in the active zone at some moments reached the melting point of uranium-oxide fuel [the third block partially used MOX-fuel enriched with plutonium], i.e. ~3000˚C. Surprisingly enough, scientific literature today contains absolutely no either experimental or even theoretically calculated data on behavior of the 238U and 239Pu capture and fission cross-sections depending on temperature at least in 1000˚C – 3000˚C range. At the same time there are serious reasons to believe that the cross section values of the mentioned elements increase with temperature. […] it is very important to know the anomalous temperature behavior of 238U and 239Pu capture and fission cross-sections, and furthermore it becomes critically important to know their influence on the heat transfer kinetics, since it may become a reason of the positive feedback (PF) with neutron kinetics leading to undesirable solution stability loss (the nuclear burning wave) as well as to a trivial reactor runaway with a subsequent nontrivial catastrophe. A special case of PF is a non-linear PF, which leads to the system evolution in so-called blow-up mode, or in other words, in such a dynamic mode when one or several modeled values (e.g. temperature and neutron flux) grows to infinity at a finite time. In reality, a phase transition is observed instead of the infinite values in this case, and this can in its turn become a first stage or a precursor of the future technogenic disaster. […]

One of the causes of a possible fuel temperature growth may lie, for instance, in a deliberate or spontaneous coolant loss, analogous to what happened during the Fukushima nuclear accident. […] the coolant loss may become a cause of the nonlinear heat source formation in the nuclear fuel, and consequently emergence of the mode with the temperature and neutron flux blow-up. In our opinion, the preliminary investigation of the heat transfer equation with nonlinear heat source points to an extremely important phenomenon of the anomalous of the temperature and neutron flux blow-up modes behavior. […]