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MLB Picks

Texas Rangers are the Underdog MLB Picks at Home vs. Royals

Each day LT Profits Sports seeks an overlay side that has a better chance of cashing than its spread, offering long term value. Here is their Side Value Play for Wednesday.

The small home underdogs may hold value in a matchup of disappointing right-handers so far Wednesday night when Yordano Ventura and the Kansas City Royals (21-12, 10-7 away) pay a visit to Yovani Gallardo and those Texas Rangers (14-19, 4-10 home) in the third game of a four-game series from Globe Life Park in Arlington, TX at 8:05 ET in a game available on FOX Sports - Southwest.

The posted money line at Pinnacle Sports has Texas as a small home underdog for this contest at current odds of +106.

Seeking First Division Title in 30 Years
The Royals ended a 29-year post-season drought as a wild card last season when they fell just one game shy of being World Champions, and they are now seeking their first division title since they went on the win the 1985 World Series. They enter this game with a one-game lead atop the American League Central over the Detroit Tigers after winning the second game of this series in Arlington in a 7-6 slugfest last night.

That victory evened up this four-game series after the Rangers were the winning MLB picks in the opener 8-2 on Monday with Colby Lewis besting Danny Duffy. Texas had the worst record in the American League last season mainly due to a decimated roster beset by injuries, but after a slow start the Rangers are already showing improvement this year as they have won six of their last nine games including a three-game sweep of the first place Astros last week.

Just Two Quality Starts in Six Starts
The flame-thrower Ventura was a major piece in the Royals’ World Series run while wining 14 games as a rookie last year, but he has not had a good start to 2015 at 2-2 with a bloated 5.13 ERA and a mediocre 1.32 WHIP, and he is winless in his last four starts after winning his first two outings. In fact he has recorded just two Quality Starts in his six outings this season.

Ventura has struggled with his command as he has just 24 strikeouts vs. 13 walks in 33.1 innings with four home runs allowed, translating to a rather unsightly 4.72 FIP. Furthermore, he has actually benefitted from yielding a low .281 BABIP, meaning his mainstream numbers could get even worse when that figure stabilizes.

He is facing a Texas offense that is getting hot lately, especially vs. right-handed pitchers against whom the Rangers are averaging 4.73 runs per game over the last 10 games.

His last start typified the kind of luck that Gallardo is having this season as he was charged with four runs (three earned) in 5.1 innings, but he only allowed one run on a solo home run while he was in the game and the other three runs he was charged with came after he departed. He has not faced the Royals since 2007, so the Kansas City’s unfamiliarity with him should also work to his advantage.

Gallardo is facing a Royals’ lineup that has slumped to a .213 batting average vs. right-handed pitchers over the last 10 games.

Dramatic Win
Those offensive struggles for Kansas City included managing just five hits in back-to-back game before busting out Tuesday night in a game won on Alex Gordon’s home run in the 10th inning after Greg Holland had blown a save in the ninth.

Do not expect seven runs from the spotty Kansas City offense again here though, and with Gallardo seemingly having the better peripheral numbers of the two struggling starters, look for Texas to prevail at home in Arlington vs. the Royals on Wednesday.