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12/14/2012

2012 - Best Actor

FRONTRUNNER

Daniel Day-Lewis
(Lincoln)

Now that Les Miserables
has lost its supposed runner-up status due to mixed early reviews,
Daniel Day-Lewis is truly unstoppable. Not that we considered any
other option seriously from the moment we heard Daniel Day-Lewis
(!) will play Abraham Lincoln (!) in a film directed by Steven
Spielberg (!).

ON-PAPER LOCKS

Hugh Jackman(Les Miserables)

Even though I still
think he is the only viable threat for an upset in this category,
the fact that his film hasn't been doing as well recently as it was
expected to, pretty much means Jackman won't have the luxury to
rely on a strong BP-contender/frontrunner and he probably needed that to
have even a remote chance to beat Day-Lewis. IF his film picks up
steam (much better reviews, great Box Office, BP/BD
nominations), he could be cautiously considered for an unlikely
victory again, until then, it's Daniel Day-Lewis's to lose. For what it's worth, it's nice to see this remarkably talented, criminally underrated actor in the Awards Race. I firmly believe Jean Valjean is his first great role that allows him to show his remarkable range as an actor.

Bradley Cooper
(Silver Linings Playbook)

He received career-best
reviews and surprisingly enough emerged as the STRONGEST
Weinstein-contender in this category (sorry Phoenix), so he can
definitely count on the powerful Weinstein-push and a Best Picture
nomination, as well. Two things could seal the deal for good :
stronger Box Office and a Best Director nod. Not that he couldn't
land a nomination without those two, but it would be definitely
easier.

John Hawkes(The Sessions)

I am ecstatic the
Broadcast Film Critics Association, the Screen Actors
Guild and the HFPA recognized his stellar work, I was
worried the unspectacular BoxOffice, seemingly fading buzz and the
massive competition would hurt him, but I'm glad he is doing so
well. Despite his excellent precursors, I'm still not done with the
worrying-part, though : Joaquin Phoenix is still a major threat and
if he makes the cut, he will probably knock out one of the two
contenders (Hawkes, Washington) who cannot rely on a Best Picture
nomination.

Denzel Washington(Flight)

He is a beloved
Academy-favorite, receiving career-best reviews (which says a lot
when the career in question has already delivered 2 Oscars) for a
film that is also a critically acclaimed Box Office hit. But if
Phoenix gets nominated, someone has to go...

MAJOR THREAT

Joaquin Phoenix
(The Master)

So far for me the big
question of the season had been whether 'The Rant' could
hurt him in the long run. I didn't think it would, or more like,
with her groundbreaking work and fantastic reviews, I didn't think
it COULD. Well, I was wrong. The SAG-exclusion alone hurts him
enough, but the fact that his competition is so remarkably fierce
(ALL five pulled off the
usually ironclad SAG/GG/BFCA trio), is just another
barrier that will be remarkably hard to overcome. He could be the
rare 6th who doesn't even come close to that 5th
slot. Having said that, he is also a contender with very passionate
supporters, so if the Academy voters want to recognize arguably one
of the best performances in recent years, they WILL vote for
Joaquin Phoenix.

VIABLE SURPRISES

Richard Gere(Arbitrage)

The Golden Globe
nomination helped him stay in the conversation, but frankly, if the
Academy snubbed him when he was the male lead of their Best Picture
winner with a Golden Globe Award and a SAG nomination under his
belt, I simply don't see how they could go for him when he is in a
little-seen indie that has failed to garner much buzz (so far).
Still, IF they eat up the 'career nomination' campaign, he might
come closer to his first nod than I give him credit for.

Billy Murray(Hyde Park on Hudson)

With the
Academy-friendly December release date and the recent Golden Globe
nomination, he might still have a tiny shot thanks to the early
Academy-deadline, but mainly due to the poor reviews his film has
been receiving, he will probably sit this one out.

Jack Black(Bernie)

I saw this film last
year at the London Film Festival and it has been fascinating to see
how Black's performance has managed to keep staying in the
conversation to this day. Having received the Golden Globe
nomination, he can only qualify as a 'Viable Surprise' officially,
but if he actually makes the Oscar-cut, make no mistake, it will be
a shock.

VIABLE SHOCKERS

Anthony Hopkins(Hitchcock)

It seems Helen Mirren
stole the show from the actual lead, nothing new on that front, she
managed to pull off a Lead Oscar nomination for a Tolstoy-film for
which the actor playing Tolstoy got a supporting nod. Still,
Hopkins is a highly acclaimed British veteran playing one of the
greatest cinematic icons, so IF the British-vote backs him up
(=Bafta-nod), then he might be able to shock us all in the
end...how Hitchcockian of him THAT would be.

Ben Affleck(Argo)

As the Million Dollar
Baby-year proved, when the Academy REALLY loves a film, they could
easily go for its lead even if the contender in question had been
flying under the radar. The question remains : will they REALLY
love his film ?