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The recent spike in China's exports took many by surprise.
According to the official sources, China's exports in September
grew by some 10% from a year earlier - about 2% higher than
expected. A great deal of that increase came from iPhones,
iPads, Android
phones, and other popular electronics orders.

One fact that some analysts have overlooked however is that the
key driver of China's export growth (and ultimately the GDP
growth) continues to be the US.

Xinhua: - During [the Jan.-Sept (YTD)]
period, trade with the European Union, China's largest trade
partner, fell 2.7 percent year on year to 410.99
billion U.S. dollars, the figures showed.

... China's trade with Japan dipped 1.8 percent
to 248.76 billion U.S. dollars, faster than the 1.4 percent
decline recorded in the first eight months

Trade with the United States, the country's second largest trade
partner, increased 9.1 percent to 355.42 billion U.S.
dollars.

In fact in Q3 (for the first time in years) the US has once
again become China's largest export market - now larger than
exports to the EU.

China's dependence on exports to the US has largely become
entrenched in the past decade, as the US rapidly shifted its
Asian import portfolio from being dominated by Japan to largely
concentrated in China.

With Japan's and the EU's growth stalled, China's recovery is now
even more linked to the success of the US turning its economy
around. And with the US growth potentially stabilizing (see discussion), investors have turned
somewhat bullish on China.

CNBC: - What a difference a quarter makes. After
months of jitters over a possible hard landing in China, market
watchers are quickly turning optimistic on the outlook for the
world’s second largest economy following a spate of reassuring
data this week.

But any hint of an economic slowdown in the US, and the "months
of jitters" will return. As much as China has tried to shift more
of its economy to domestic consumption, at least for now it is
still heavily dependent on making iPhones, etc. for the US
markets. China certainly can not afford to see a disruption in
its export sector. That's why it shouldn't come as a surprise
that Beijing is keenly interested in the outcome of the US
elections (see discussion).