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TC's 2013 Mock Offseason

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If you haven't been around long, then you probably don't know... I try to do one of these "offseason plans" at the end of each season. I usually do a mock free agency along with a mock draft based on the assumption that I get the guys I want in free agency.

A little about my philosophy: In free agency, I want younger talent. I'm looking for guys who are coming off their rookie contract or looking for their 3rd contract at the most... anyone older than 28 has to be a special talent with proven longevity, a good locker room presence, and willing to be a mentor.

In the draft, I use the first 2-4 rounds as an extension of free agency. Any holes I haven't plugged in free agency, I try to address in the first 3 rounds of the draft. After the 3rd round, I'm usually looking for the best player on the board... someone with raw ability who can be groomed to be a starter in the future.

So, let's get started.

The Chiefs have hired offense-minded Andy Reid as their new head coach. John Dorsey is their new General Manager and they've tagged Bob Sutton as their next DC. What we know from this group is that Reid likes an offense built around the pass and enjoys having mobile QBs. We know the Chiefs have a desperate need at the QB position and the #1 pick in the draft.

The scary hire was Bob Sutton. The Chiefs have spent a TON of resources building on the defensive side of the ball. Now, they've hired an offensive HC and a DC who didn't do too well as the DC for the Jets under Mangini. His schemes are bland, no blitzes, poorly designed, and never ranked higher than 16th overall. The Chiefs defense is a unit without a direction and being that Sutton has experience in the Tampa 2 4-3, the 2 gap 3-4, and now the 1 gap 3-4, he seems to be a Defensive Coordinator without a direction as well. This all leads me to believe there won't be too much attention given to the defensive side of the ball.

I COULD be wrong however because Andy Reid has a history of taking CBs and pass-rushing DEs in free agency and the draft. This could be a good thing considering Tyson Jackson is scheduled to make $14m in 2013 and is a prime target to be cut. The Chiefs also have a need at CB depth as well as at Safety. The Chiefs will also need at least one ILB and may also need to bring in another OLB depending on which defensive scheme they settle on. Glenn Dorsey is also scheduled to be an unrestricted free agent.

On the flip side, outside of the QB position, the Chiefs will also be looking at WRs with a decision needing to be made on Dwayne Bowe who's scheduled to be an UFA, evaluations needed on Breaston, Baldwin, McCluster, and the rest of the corp in order to effectively address the situation. There's also a decision that needs to be made in regards to Branden Albert who is scheduled to be an UFA as well. The offensive line has substantial depth, but letting Albert walk may require replacing him with a free agent or with the #1 overall pick. The loss of Ryan Lilja shouldn't do much to hurt the O-line, but the next man up needs to be backed up. The offensive line has always been a priority for Andy Reid and this year should be no different.

So, let's dive into the free agent pool. Top priority: QB
Not too many options here. With the Chiefs perhaps bringing in Sporano as the O-line coach, one has to wonder if Matt Moore gets a chance to come in and compete. Assuming Flacco doesn't hit the free agent market after taking his team to the AFC Championship (so far), the FA talent pool is MUCH shallower than the extremely shallow QB draft class.

Offensive Line: The Sporano connection rears its head again. The Chiefs have concerns about Branden Albert's back and what they can expect from him on a long-term deal. Ryan Clady will be the biggest name scheduled to be an UFA, but there's no way Manning allows one of the best pass protectors in the game to walk. The next big name on the list of UFAs is none other than former top pick by the Dolphins, Jake Long. Long also has injury concerns but may be enticed to come play in KC. Andy Levitre is the top OG scheduled to hit the free agent market. Contract talks have gone nowhere in the past between he and the Bills and may get the chance to hit the open market.

WRs: Greg Jennings, Dwayne Bowe, and Mike Wallace headline the WR crop this season. With the new offense being pass-heavy, I just don't see Reid allowing Bowe to walk. Bowe will be extended and Dorsey will reel in Greg Jennings. With Baldwin and Breaston filling out #3 and #4, the Chiefs will boast one of the best WR corps in the league and will provide the new QB plenty of weapons with which to destroy his opponent.

TEs: Jared Cook is one of, if not THE most athletic TEs in the league. He has almost ZERO interest in returning to Tennessee and with the new offense centered around the pass in KC, Cook could see this team as a very big opportunity for him to finally break out.

DL: The Chiefs DL will take a hit this year. Jackson will probably not be here. There's a good chance Dorsey won't have much interest in returning. The defensive side of the ball is going to be the hardest for us to fill out considering that I don't think the Chiefs staff has any idea what defense they want to run yet. I'm going to go out on a limb (where I'm sure I'll be all by myself) and say the Chiefs are going to run a 1-gap 3-4. I realize this is a defense Reid has never run. However, I think this is the defense that the Chiefs are currently best-suited for with Sutton seeing the success Ryan had with it in NY. If the Chiefs run this defense, they have Hali and Houston at DE and Poe inside with DJ at LB. That means they need 3 LBs to fill out the defense. So, there isn't too much need along the DL except for random depth which could be filled by the guys currently on the roster, with late picks in the draft, or free agents after the draft. This defense is the same ran in New York with the Giants AND Jets. Osi Umenyiora is a top pass rushing DE that may hit the FA market. He is 6'3 255 and runs a 4.7 40. Hali is 6'3 270 with a 4.7 40 and Houston is 6'3 258 with a 4.6 40. These guys can handle the position.

LBs: Anthony Spencer, Phillip Wheeler, Shaun Phillips, and Manny Lawson are the top names on the LB FA market. The Cowboys franchised Spencer last season and Phillips is 31. If they can get one of these guys, I think they'll be in good shape.

CBs: Chris Houston, Aqib Talib, Leodis McKelvin, Sean Smith, and Dominique Rogers-Cromartie are the top names of the CB FA class. Chris Houston would be my first choice. Talib will probably go back to NE after they win the Super Bowl. I could see this staff going after Rogers-Cromartie from Philly or maybe Sam Shields from Green Bay even though he'll be a RFA.

S: The Chiefs need a safety who's reliable to put next to Berry in the defensive backfield. Top names on the market are Jairus Byrd, Dashon Goldson, Kenny Phillips, William Moore, Pat Chung, and Loius Delmas. Reid isn't known for spending assets on safeties, so I wouldn't expect much from him at this position. Byrd would be a nice addition, but he'll cost a pretty penny.

The Chiefs replace Branden Albert with a less expensive upgrade in Luke Joekel. They get better value with this pick than if they had decided to take a QB #1 overall. Joekel fits into a line that boasts Jon Asamoah, Rodney Hudson, Andy Levitre, and Eric Winston with depth provided by in Stephenson and Allen.

2nd Round
ILB Alec Ogletree Georgia

Ogletree would look GREAT next to DJ inside. Ogletree is a DJ clone. Great sideline to sideline defender with elite speed. He may not be available here, but if he gets passed the Bengals, I think he'll slide. This pick helps with the LB overhaul done by the organization because of their shift from the 2-gap to a 1-gap 3-4.

3rd Round
3a. OLB Alex Okafor Texas
The Chiefs need one more LB for their overhaul and the OLB out of Texas was the lone bright spot on an underwhelming defense. If Okafor is still available in the 3rd, he could be a a steal for the Chiefs.

3b. (compensation for Carr) WR/QB Denard Robinson Michigan

There are worse things to draft late in the 3rd than a play-making athlete who has played the QB position. No one thought Russell Wilson could win the job at QB either.

4th Round *Traded

5th
DB Tyrann Mathieu

Off the field issues should not scare anyone away from top 5 talent in the 5th round. We need another play-maker in the secondary and you couldn't ask for a better one than the "Honey Badger" in the 5th round. (**may be worth a higher pick as we get closer to the draft)

6th Round
QB Logan Thomas Virginia Tech

I know... off the radar, right? Check this out: 6'6 240lb. Bigger than Big Ben, Joe Flacco, and Cam Newton. Newton runs a 4.58, Thomas a 4.67, and Ben a 4.78. Make no mistake, he's definitely a project. Ranked 108 in comp% and 8th in turnovers with a longer than you'd like throwing motion. He'll probably sit for a year or two to refine his craft before he truly competes to be the starter, but if he puts the pieces together, his talent could make him a star. There are worse ways to spend a 6th round pick.

I know it's probably not "big splash" approach to the QB position all of us want, but there's just no clear-cut answer for the Chiefs at #1 overall. There are injury questions about Albert and a VERY good LT option worth the #1 overall pick. Allowing Albert to walk clears up more space to sign some key free agents. If the Chiefs are able to turn a 4th round pick into two QBs who can come compete for the position, I think that's great value for that pick. Tyrod Taylor is a younger Mike Vick. If a mobile QB is what Reid wants, I think the better option is to go get a Tyrod Taylor or Pat White with a later round draft pick trade than wasting the first pick on Geno Smith. I think there's at LEAST an average, short-term solution in that group of QBs that could afford the Chiefs a different opportunity to fill the position long-term in the future.

Think about this for a second: Mike Vick, Tyrod Taylor, Geno Smith, Pat White, Josh Freeman, Jason Campbell, Logan Thomas, E.J. Manual, and Donovan McNabb could all be available to the Chiefs by way of draft, trade, or free agent signing this winter. All of them possess similar attributes. Think about what each of those QBs may cost compared to what they'd bring to the Chiefs and honestly assess which QB presents the greatest value. I'm sorry, but I look at that group of QBs and I just don't see one name that separates himself from the rest of the pack. So why would Geno Smith be worth the #1 overall pick when you could have any of the other guys for MUCH less.

Their Junior years are almost identical with Geno passing for 1000 yards more but for almost 1.5 yards less per attempt than Young... but I'm sure the system he played in had nothing to do with that...

How can he average 1.5 yard per attempt less???? He throws the best deep ball in college why wouldn't the coaching staff use that.....Oh he had two stud receivers that had hellacious YAC.

THIS
ANYONE can be a bust. Drafting a good QB will have more of an impact then drafting a good LT. But drafting a bad Qb will do far more bad then a bad LT. Some just want to narrow the focus on the QB. I'm glad they are not the ones who make the choice. Since The ones who have the choice say best player on the board.

Very true, but if you don't take the risk and draft the QB, there will never be long term success. I don't care if he busts, you have to keep trying. Shoot, look at Carolina. Clausen was a bust. What did they do? Newton #1 the next year. You can't just stop with one dud. Maybe Geno is a bust, but you have to try.

Very true, but if you don't take the risk and draft the QB, there will never be long term success. I don't care if he busts, you have to keep trying. Shoot, look at Carolina. Clausen was a bust. What did they do? Newton #1 the next year. You can't just stop with one dud. Maybe Geno is a bust, but you have to try.

If he's at the top of the board yes. If not you take the best player. IMO you should alway take the guy you think has the best chance of being good in the NFL. Green Bay has taken the best on there board for years they have the highest winning % in that time.

If he's at the top of the board yes. If not you take the best player. IMO you should alway take the guy you think has the best chance of being good in the NFL. Green Bay has taken the best on there board for years they have the highest winning % in that time.

I don't buy it for a second. They've had an HOF level QB since I was 6 years old. It makes it pretty easy to take the "best available" when you don't necessarily need a QB. The Packers couldn't have been any luckier in that 2005 draft.

Very true, but if you don't take the risk and draft the QB, there will never be long term success. I don't care if he busts, you have to keep trying. Shoot, look at Carolina. Clausen was a bust. What did they do? Newton #1 the next year. You can't just stop with one dud. Maybe Geno is a bust, but you have to try.

No, you have to be smart. Invest in scouting. Invest in talent evaluators. Invest in coaching. Maximize value. This isn't a game where you succeed by taking risks. This isn't a game rooted in Vegas. This is a game rooted in basic economic principles. The successful teams don't just throw caution to the wind or throw a bunch of s#!t against the wall to see what sticks.

How bout you stop watching the bad teams in the league to see what they do and pay attention to the Patriots, Ravens, and Steelers of the league who invest in their O-line and defense until it's time to pull the trigger on a well-evaluated QB... not just the flavor of the month who happens to be the "least worst" in any particular draft class. You see the Patriots, Eagles, Ravens, and Steelers moving all over the draft board on game day because they have invested in scouting, know how to target certain players, know WHERE they can get them in the draft, and how to maximize their draft resources.

Wasting resources on draft busts year after year is NOT the way to build perennial playoff contenders... just ask the Lions and Raiders.

I don't buy it for a second. They've had an HOF level QB since I was 6 years old. It makes it pretty easy to take the "best available" when you don't necessarily need a QB. The Packers couldn't have been any luckier in that 2005 draft.

They wouldn't have had a hall of fame QB if they didn't draft the best player instead of going on need. They didn't Need a qb Farve was going to be there. Drafting the best available is why they have had that hof level QB.

I don't buy it for a second. They've had an HOF level QB since I was 6 years old. It makes it pretty easy to take the "best available" when you don't necessarily need a QB. The Packers couldn't have been any luckier in that 2005 draft.

Good teams don't address the QB position (or any other position for that matter) when they don't have one. Successful teams, businesses, etc. don't manage by crisis. They draft and develop. Unfortunately for the Chiefs, they had Scott Pioli at the helm who didn't want to admit he was wrong about Matt Cassel, and therefore ignored the QB position like an ostrich with his head in the ground. The Packers didn't wait until Brett Favre was gone to address the forthcoming need. Carl Peterson and Dick Vermeil should have been drafting and grooming Trent Green's replacement long before we ever got to this situation... ditto O-line and defensive secondary. Peterson and Vermeil traded away all our valuable draft picks for guys like Roaf and Green and never did anything to secure the future of the franchise.

You don't wait to fill the hole after a guy has vacated because there may not be a good option to fill that hole when the time comes. Peterson and Pioli have royally screwed this team in so many ways when it came to the draft.

There's nothing smart about putting all your chips on red... it's just a gamble. Maybe you'll hit big but the problem is that taking a QB #1 overall isn't even as good as a 50/50 proposition... even if the QB is considered "can't miss." (insert Ryan Leaf, Tim Couch, JaMarcus Russell, David Carr, Alex Smith, Etc. Etc.)

No, you have to be smart. Invest in scouting. Invest in talent evaluators. Invest in coaching. Maximize value. This isn't a game where you succeed by taking risks. This isn't a game rooted in Vegas. This is a game rooted in basic economic principles. The successful teams don't just throw caution to the wind or throw a bunch of s#!t against the wall to see what sticks.

How bout you stop watching the bad teams in the league to see what they do and pay attention to the Patriots, Ravens, and Steelers of the league who invest in their O-line and defense until it's time to pull the trigger on a well-evaluated QB... not just the flavor of the month who happens to be the "least worst" in any particular draft class. You see the Patriots, Eagles, Ravens, and Steelers moving all over the draft board on game day because they have invested in scouting, know how to target certain players, know WHERE they can get them in the draft, and how to maximize their draft resources.

Wasting resources on draft busts year after year is NOT the way to build perennial playoff contenders... just ask the Lions and Raiders.

You can't say Brady was "well evaluated" or they would've taken him sooner if they knew what he would be. Don't act like the patriots knew what they were getting when they drafted him...

You can't say Brady was "well evaluated" or they would've taken him sooner if they knew what he would be. Don't act like the patriots knew what they were getting when they drafted him...

I was using them more as an example of their drafting acumen and willingness to move around instead of just staying put and trying to force a round peg into a square hole. Not so much the Brady pick. Drew Bledsoe did a lot to get that franchise relevant. We need to find our Drew Bledsoe, not our Tom Brady. (Yes, I realize he was #1 overall.) I dare anyone to tell me there's a Drew Bledsoe in this draft.