No matter who goes where on signing day, future success anybody's guess

Recruiting experts say UT should have a top-20 class, maybe even one ranked in the top 15 and possibly the top 10. But even that could mean little for Strong.

Photo: Eric Gay, STF

Early on Tuesday, the day before national signing day, national services ranked Texas' recruiting class behind the likes of Duke and Kentucky.

That wouldn't be so alarming were we talking basketball, but this is football.

Of course, the Longhorns had only 15 commitments the day before "the day."

In other words, the Longhorns were waiting for a number of talented teens to make the most important decision they have had to make besides what design they wanted in a cellphone case.

By midday Tuesday, the Longhorns had landed a notable commitment from Katy running back Kyle Porter.

That news moved their ranking out of the "basketball school" range into the mid-20s, which is "decent football program" territory yet still behind three other Power 5 conference schools in the state (Baylor, TCU and Texas A&M).

UT football is supposed to be better than decent.

Coach Charlie Strong, who will be in his third season at UT in the fall, has hardly sounded worried. He is counting on a strong closing kick.

Recruiting experts say by the end of it all, UT should have a top-20 class, maybe even one ranked in the top 15 and possibly the top 10.

But even that could mean little for Strong, who has an 11-14 record at UT.

Strong's future in Austin will depend on what happens in football games, not recruiting contests. Without significant improvement, he won't be around long enough to see if this year's recruits pan out.

Even if Strong pulls a surprise and manages a top-10 class, there is no guarantee the group will have top-10 college career.

An inexact science

Analyzing college football recruiting classes isn't a guessing game - it is big business, and people are paid big money to do it. Still, it is so far removed from a true science that I am always amazed at how much stock people put into class rankings.

Recruiting is a sport that has an old-fashioned scoreboard. Not one with busted bulbs and flickering lights, but an older one. The kind where the score is handwritten in chalk with an eraser kept handy.

The interest is explicable. Recruiting is the lifeblood of a college football program.

But despite year after year, example after example of miscalculations, misjudgments and just plain misses, rabid fan bases continue to demand the information.

NFL teams - and not just the Texans - make mistakes on a regular basis, though teams spend millions studying players and get their pick of players three, four or even five years after they leave high school.

It is impossible for the high school star ratings to accurately account for on- and off-the-field growth, or lack thereof, for 17-, 18- and 19-year-olds.

How these youngsters fare on the field is far more important than how they rate on paper or in the paper.

High hopes, poor play

Strong has a reputation for developing players. That is supposed to be one of his advantages over his predecessor.

In 2010, the Chronicle declared, "The good times keep on rolling" at Texas after Mack Brown signed a consensus top-five recruiting class.

At the time, Brown said the group, which ESPNU said had six of the top 20 prospects in the country and 15 of the top 150, might be his most talented.

By the time those players had used up their eligibility, departed or been dismissed, Texas was being pushed around on the field and in recruiting, none of its players was picked in the 2014 draft (a first for UT since 1937), and Brown was forced to resign.

So Wednesday could be a huge day for Strong, but victory in the fall is more important than winning on paper in February, even if the latter can be the key to the former.

Jerome grew up in downtown Acres Homes, Texas. He is a proud graduate of Mabel B. Wesley Elementary and was a basketball team captain at Waltrip High School, where he helped the Mighty Rams to a near-.500 record.

A math genius and engineering major in college, he's still working on this writing thing. He says that the three years he spent as an F.M. Black Panther probably played a more significant a role in the man he would become than the time he spent in college.

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