Your Guide To The 2018 American League

It’s opening week in the major leagues, and that means it’s time to catch up on what’s been happening in baseball over this very odd offseason — and time to look forward to the season ahead. To do that, we’ve enlisted the help of our preseason forecasting model (publishing Wednesday), which assesses every team and offers a projection for their 2018 campaign. I’ve also gone through and highlighted the most interesting teams and players to watch during the year, as well as the ones about which we just don’t have any clue. (¯\_(ツ)_/¯) Play ball!

AL East

Team to beat:New York Yankees. Our simulations show the AL East as the tightest division battle of the 2018 season, but we’re giving the Yankees a slight advantage over the Boston Red Sox here. While both teams used the winter to put more distance between themselves and the rest of the division — New York added Giancarlo Stanton and Boston signed J.D. Martinez — the Yankees still appear to have the edge in bullpen depth and marquee talent. (And don’t forget about their impressive farm pipeline; touted infield prospect Gleyber Torres could make an impact before the season is done.) That said, we also give Boston a 61 percent chance of making the playoffs, so this renewed rivalry might well extend into October either way.

How Elo is forecasting the AL East race

Avg. Simulated Season

Chance to…

Team

Elo Rating

Wins

Losses

Run Diff.

Make Playoffs

Win Division

Win World Series

Yankees

1565

95

67

+125

74%

48%

10%

Red Sox

1549

91

71

+89

61

33

6

Blue Jays

1507

81

81

-2

27

10

2

Rays

1495

78

84

-32

19

6

1

Orioles

1475

72

90

-84

9

3

<1

Team ¯\_(ツ)_/¯:Tampa Bay Rays. The Rays have had a pattern of up-and-down seasons in recent years, and the projections don’t quite know what to do with them this year, either. If you ask PECOTA, Tampa could potentially factor into the playoff mix; if you ask the Las Vegas books, it might sink down into the basement of the East. Our model basically splits the difference and calls for the Rays to post 78 wins.

Rebuild alert:Baltimore Orioles. Going into the spring, O’s GM Dan Duquette scoffed at the notion of rebuilding. But he may have no choice with Adam Jones, Manny Machado and Zach Britton all up for free agency after the season. If the Orioles falter early — and our projections don’t see much hope for them this year — Baltimore could be due for a fire sale.

Biggest enigma:Aaron Judge, Yankees. Judge’s roller-coaster 2017 season was remarkable enough on its own. But add his terrible debut season in 2016, and it becomes almost impossible to predict how Judge will perform in 2018. The projections that FanGraphs lists are all over the map, from 3.8 wins above replacement on the low side to 6.2 WAR on the upper end. (And remember, he had 8.2 last year.) Judge could be great again, or he could just be good — we really have no idea yet.

AL Central

Team to beat:Cleveland Indians. With a 79 percent chance of winning the Central, Cleveland is our model’s strongest division favorite for 2018. Sure, the Tribe lost a few recognizable names (Carlos Santana, Jay Bruce) over the winter, and this year’s roster is probably not as talented as the version that snapped off a 22-game winning streak last August and September. But they still boast ace starter Corey Kluber (whom FanGraphs projects to be the most valuable pitcher in baseball), ace fireman Andrew Miller (projected as the fourth-most valuable reliever in baseball) and a bevy of dangerous hitters (such as Edwin Encarnacion, Jose Ramirez and Francisco Lindor). There’s more than enough talent here for the Indians to comfortably claim another division crown.

How Elo is forecasting the AL Central race

Avg. Simulated Season

Chance to…

Team

Elo Rating

Wins

Losses

Run Diff.

Make Playoffs

Win Division

Win World Series

Indians

1576

99

63

+174

88%

79%

14%

Twins

1510

83

79

+20

36

15

2

Royals

1459

70

92

-101

7

2

<1

White Sox

1457

70

92

-104

6

2

<1

Tigers

1449

68

94

-123

4

2

<1

Team ¯\_(ツ)_/¯:Minnesota Twins. The range of predictions for the Twins is actually quite small: From Vegas to the computers, most forecasters basically call for Minnesota to win 82 or 83 games this year. But that’s a little difficult to reconcile with the team’s 85-win season a year ago and the flurry of improvements it made in the offseason — to say nothing of the ongoing strides expected from its core. It wouldn’t be surprising at all if the Twins end up beating that projection.

Rebuild alert:Chicago White Sox, Detroit Tigers, Kansas City Royals. One of the big reasons that Cleveland is such a strong favorite in this division — and why the Twins can be optimistic, too — is that the Central is home to numerous, um, “rebuilding” efforts. The White Sox have been engaging in one of the most extreme multi-year teardowns ever and probably won’t begin to emerge from it until next season. The Tigers finally admitted to themselves that their early-2010s heyday was over and became sellers at last year’s trade deadline. The Royals are just now embarking on a reboot of their own. This division might be formidable in several years as a result of the tank-fest, but for now it contains a bunch of teams that aren’t even trying to compete.

Player to watch:Jose Ramirez, Indians. Ramirez turned in a perfectly solid 2016 season manning third base for the AL champion Tribe, hitting .310 during the World Series. But he vaulted himself into another stratosphere last year — and squarely into the MVP conversation — with a .318/.374/.583 batting line and plus defense. Cleveland’s chances won’t hinge on him repeating those numbers, but in his age-25 season, it should be fun to see if Ramirez can keep up his ascent.

Biggest enigma:Lucas Giolito, White Sox. As a rookie with Washington in 2016, Giolito struggled horribly, posting a 6.75 ERA in 21.1 innings with a shockingly poor 8.21 fielding-independent pitching (FIP). Then he was shipped to Chicago as part of the Adam Eaton deal — and, superficially, the change in scenery helped: Giolito bounced back in 2017 with a far healthier 2.38 ERA. Trouble is, he also benefited from allowing an unsustainably low .189 batting average on balls in play, masking a FIP that remained pretty unimpressive. The former first-round pick and top-five prospect still has plenty of potential, but nobody is really sure what kind of season to expect from him in 2018.

AL West

Team to beat:Houston Astros. The defending world champs also enjoyed one of the better offseasons of any team when they hauled in starting pitcher Gerrit Cole from the Pirates in a January trade. Now Houston boasts a deep rotation with Cole, Justin Verlander and Dallas Keuchel (among others), plus it hung on to practically all of the cogs in an offensive machine that led the majors with 896 runs scored last season. While no favorite is unbeatable — the Astros finished third in the division as recently as 2016 — anyone other than Houston winning the West would be a stunning development.

How Elo is forecasting the AL West race

Avg. Simulated Season

Chance to…

Team

Elo Rating

Wins

Losses

Run Diff.

Make Playoffs

Win Division

Win World Series

Astros

1577

97

65

+151

81%

66%

14%

Angels

1510

81

81

-4

27

11

2

Mariners

1508

80

82

-7

26

10

2

Rangers

1497

78

84

-29

19

7

1

Athletics

1490

76

86

-47

16

6

<1

Team ¯\_(ツ)_/¯:Los Angeles Angels. The Angels have been stuck behind somebody in this division for most of Mike Trout’s stellar career, whether it be the Rangers and A’s early on or the Astros most recently. This season is supposed to be the start of something different, from the signing of Japanese two-way sensation Shohei Ohtani (more on him later) to other solid, under-the-radar pickups such as Ian Kinsler and Zack Cozart. Still, the forecast systems aren’t totally sure what to make of the Halos yet, penciling them in for win totals between the upper 70s and mid-80s. The best-case scenarios there probably won’t be enough to run down the Astros, but they might just be enough to snag the Angels a wild-card berth.

Biggest enigma:Shohei Ohtani, Angels. Ohtani came to the U.S. with immense expectations, and it would be unrealistic to expect him to deliver an instant payoff — particularly as the first legitimate hitter/pitcher in decades. All rookies need time to adjust, especially one who’s in a new country, facing a completely different style of opponent. That said, Ohtani has been unable to pitch or hit effectively this spring. His numbers have been so poor that analysts are wondering if he should make the team. Even that is a testament to his talent — who else’s spring stats are getting this much scrutiny? — but it also might make Ohtani the most uncertain player in the major leagues this season.

Coming Wednesday: Our National League preview and our full interactive forecast.