Saturday, 26 May 2012

Don't panic and carry a Bashkeer

Egyptian authorities released the preliminary final results of the 1st real
presidential election in the history of Egypt on May 25th (compiled and
detailed here by Iyad Elbaghdadi). Ironically May 25th is also the worldwide
"Towel Day", a day coined and celebrated by fans of Douglas Adam's
classic series "The hitchhiker's guide to the galaxy". The concept of
towel day comes from the caption on the guide in the books that reads "Don't
panic, and carry a towel". While I can't really vouch for the benefits of carrying a towel, I can tell you why you shouldn't panic.

I admit, I personally expected the run off to be between Former Prime
minister and military man Ahmed Shafiq, and the Muslim brotherhood candidate
Mohammed Morsy (It was very naive to assume that the regime, that has been
trying to frame the situation internally and internationally as "It's us
or the Islamists" for as long as can be remembered would allow two other
candidates to reach the run offs, at least not without a real fight), but what I
did not expect, and what came as a surprise, was the poor performance of Amr
Moussa, and the amazing performance of Hamdeen Sabbahi. This is important for a
reason, so take note.

While I have previously stated bluntly that the referendum in March 2011
and the parliamentary elections were fraudulent (And I’ve been repeatedly
attacked for saying this, apparently facts be damned), it is unlikely due to
the large amount of votes for so few candidates, that the presidential
elections will be as fraudulent. Election violations? Sure. Propaganda?
Definitely. Outright fraud? Doubtful. This again, is an important point.

Fraud aside, the fact that everyone seems keen to overlook is that one of
the main reasons for the success of Islamists in parliamentary elections (Fraud
and campaign violations aside), is not primarily due to a love of Islamists;
rather, the rise occurred because people wanted to vote Mubarak's political
party, the NDP out, and found the Salafis and Muslim brotherhood to be their
best most organized chance to do so.

Another aspect everyone seems to overlook; who turned a blind eye to
illegal religious campaigning? Who turned a blind eye to vote buying through
charity networks or otherwise? Who sat down and conducted agreements with the
Islamists from day one? It is entirely naive to assume that the regime did not
want an Islamist candidate, after all, who would you rather fight; someone you
can defeat easily, or someone that is a real challenge? Again, I'm not saying
the results are Fraudulent (Yet), I'm saying this was engineered. Big
difference.

By all means, this was an election of opposites; it was Moussa VS Fetouh
(For "Liberals"). Shafiq VS Morsy (For conservatives), with Sabbahi being in the
middle. The trend apparently was you vote for one because you oppose or fear
the other, not exactly because you're convinced of one or the other. Luckily
ElShater and Soliman took each other out early on. I am convinced a majority of
those that voted for Shafiq, did not do so out of love for the man, rather they
did so out of a belief that he is the only man capable of standing against the
Muslim brotherhood, and bringing back stability. Shafiq would not have that
amount of voter support if Morsy did not exist. Rudimentary polling of Shafiq
voters backs my hypothesis on this matter.

What is most impressive about Sabbahi's strong standing is that according
to election monitoring groups, Sabbahi's campaign conducted the least election
violations of all the candidates (With Morsy and Shafiq's campaigns conducting
the most); this is yet another crucial point.

All that aside, let's look at some facts:

1- Those who were monitoring the public vibe, expected the run off to be
between Morsy and Shafiq. That was a given considering the MB charity machine,
and the use of state media to polish up Shafiq.

2- A candidate's campaign that conducted the least amount of campaign
violations (Sabbahi) came in 3rd with a relatively small gap between him and
the 2nd (Shafiq) whose campaign is one of the highest violators.

3- A Candidate (Sabbahi) that does not have the power of a charity
(Bribery) network, or state media (Propaganda Machine) behind him, came in 3rd.
Candidates with more or less the same criteria came in 4th and 5th. Do not underestimate the
intelligence of the population.

4- Even with all the propaganda, fear mongering & failures of the
liberal movements and revolutionaries, Over 50% of the population combined did not vote for an MB
candidate (Morsy) nor the Regime candidate (Shafiq), yes I realize the election
turnout was relatively low, and that this isn't the entire population, but it's
like you're conducting a poll with a sample size of over 18 million. So yes, I
can safely assume over 50% of the population. In other words, over 50% of the
population is on the side of freedom and dignity, not the side of bribes or
fear. Compare that to percentage of the population that took part in the 18
days, and you'll see that matters are not as bleak as they seem, in fact this
in particular makes me the most optimistic. And yes, like it or not, Moussa
counts. If anything Moussa is the chosen of non-Islamist reformists.

5- Egyptian politics are not clear cut; the reason for the vast difference
in trends between the referendum, parliamentary elections, and presidential
elections are due to the complex network of ideologies, loyalties, and thought
processes that overlap and diverge on different points.

6- If each candidate represents their ideology, then the MB has a 26.38%
approval rating, The Military and former regime have a 23.00% approval rating
(four times lower than what various polls have been stating for over a year,
then again, almost every poll conducted in Egypt so far has been completely
wrong, so why wouldn't this one be?), and the ideals of the revolution have a
combined approval rating of 50.62%.

With all that said, I cannot understand how with so many positive
indications, some people are so pessimistic. Did those people really believe
the idea that the "majority of the population is against the revolution" was true? Did they not see that the majority of the
population is not against the ideals of the revolution, rather that they had
grown tired, weary, and had reached their limit with the lack of security and
the deterioration of the economy? Did those same people naively think we would
achieve the goals of a revolution (against 60 years of rule) in less than 18
months?

What is even more mind boggling and frustrating, is how many people are now
falling for the regime line of "It's us or the Islamists". I'm sure our
memory spans are not so short that we've forgotten that they've been using the
same line for the last 60 years, while suppressing any real secular opposition.
Yes the Islamists are a threat, but so is the regime. Have you already forgotten the Mubarak doctrine? These people are now
arguing with one another and their families on who is worse, Shafiq or Morsy,
stating the pros and cons of each, but in this situation, there are no pros and
cons, they're both horrid. Those people have resigned themselves to the idea
that our rape is inevitable and instead of finding solutions (i.e. a way to
prevent the rape), or at the very least noticing the positive indicators, they're
arguing which of our potential rapists has a smaller penis.

So no, the situation is not bleak, in fact, it's quite the opposite, if
anything, we've reached our strongest point yet; there are so many
(non-protest) ways we can make sure neither Shafiq nor Morsy rape us. In fact, I
believe that even if the so called "Elite" fail to stop their panic,
the populace by large, will NOT sit around and allow whoever the president is
to rape us. Rather, they may rape the president if he tries any funny business.

After all, Politics is a game of shifting agreements, incentives and loyalties; If Shafiq
wins, the MB will be forced to side with the majority if Shafiq acts up or they risk
isolating and killing themselves. If Morsy wins, the Army will be forced to
side with the majority if Morsy acts up or they risk losing their alleged popularity among the people. Yes. The opposition may end up in control. That is of course, if the regime and the MB don't unite together that is. Like they did in the referendum. Like they may do now.

So yes, call me a dreamer if you want, but I’m still betting on the
Egyptian people, the same way I did during the 18 days, and after the results
of the presidential election, I’ve been pleasantly surprised. All this, and
it's still possible some unexpected surprise could happen, like if this alleged
voter donation loop hole turns out to be true, or if the non-MB, non-regime
candidates decide to form some kind of super band opposition movement, mobilizing
all their followers. Or so many other admittedly farfetched scenarios, then
again, January 25th was pretty farfetched, wasn't it?

Monday, 14 May 2012

Yes you can consider it a conspiracy theory. My last one was pretty damn accurate.

I honestly now think there's a high chance the run off (if we reach it) will be between Morsi and Ahmed Shafiq. It will not be due to merit by any of them, (In fact they may very well be our two worst choices) but it will be because of the sinister tactics both campaign camps are following. One needs only to look at how Egyptian Media is polishing Shafiq up, or to realize how the wide scale MB charity network is working overtime to make Morsi out as a savior, to realize what I mean.

However if Ahmed Shafiq wins I predict the following will occur:

1- He will dissolve the Parliament & Shura council...
...Of course he won't do so directly, but the court case on the constitutional legality of parliament & Shura will reach a verdict, and will decide it needs to be dissolved and as the executive power he will "Have no choice but to" dissolve it.

2- Mass protests will occur...
...mainly by Islamists against the Parliament and Shura being dissolved. The leftists, secularists, and liberals will have little reason to side with the Islamists because of their actions during the presidential election season at least, if not due to their actions throughout the last year and a half.

3- Massive crack down on said protests will occur...
.... Which will lead to the imprisonment of a large amount of people, mainly anyone who calls/called for the protests, under the anti-protest law that the parliament has approved (shooting themselves in the foot). Even if no one actually calls for the protests, it'll be used as an excuse to round up the Islamist leaders and a large amount of their followers. This will be done with the support of the majority of the populace that will see the election of a new president as the end of the transitional period, and hence the end of the need for any protests.

4- A Terrorist attack will occur...
....Similar to the Saints church bombing in January 2010. It will be on a much larger scale and affect a larger amount of people. Will prompt massive crackdown on any dissident, especially of the Islamist variety. As a result public opinion of Islamists will plummet. Whatever remaining Islamists will be locked away, with the blessing of the (Now terrified) populace.

5- Some kind of external threat will occur...
... Be it some kind of "disagreement" with Israel or Libya, problems with armed groups in Sinai, or some kind of violence flowing over the Sudan boarder. Cue an increase of nationalism, patriotism and army support. Note: We already are having problems on our boarders with Libya and in Sinai.

6- The reactivation of the Emergency Law...
....The emergency law was not removed. Rather it was "deactivated", After the events listed in points 3 to 5, it will be reactivated once again.

7- The real end of the revolution...
.... At this point, people are going to wonder, What revolution? Sure the press will be a bit more "free" , Judicial matters will appear to be more transparent and fair, but for all intents and purposes we'll be back at square one. It'll all be superficial change.

I hope to God I'm wrong.

I'll probably write one for each candidate when I can. Note that this possible scenario MAY occur regardless of which candidate wins with some obvious differences. Even with Shafiq there may be some slight differences.