2013 Fall Final Exam

Use a Blue Book. Watch your time. Seal, sign and pledge when you’re done. Each of the three parts of the exam will receive equal weight in grading.

Part I. The Growth Process: respond to both A and B

Assume that the Xi Jinping undertakes strong reforms, including eliminating all restrictions on fertility. Let’s think through two cases, treating the first as primary.

A. With restrictions lifted, fertility jumps to an average of 2.4 children per woman, sufficient to guarantee slightly more than one girl born to each mother. What are the implications for growth of this change, including various “dividends”. Over what time frame would these transpire?

B. Assume instead that Chinese parents opt for quality over quantity – in effect this is the status quo – investing to improve the health, education and marriage prospects of their offspring rather than having more children. How does your analysis change?

Part II. Cities – respond to ONE of the following two statements

Urbanization is a story of externalities. Note these, and argue how they contribute to or detract from China’s economy. What is the government’s policy responses – or rather are the various Chinese governments’ policy responses, because local governments can and do behave in ways diametric to the official stance of the Party’s top leadership in Beijing? You should of course utilize examples from the Miller book, China’s Urban Billion.

– OR –

China’s greatest policy challenge is to restructure its economy along modern lines. At present the division of power between rural areas, cities, provinces and the central government reflects a structure inherited from the Qing government, dating to the 17th century. We’re now in the 21st century. Most of the other major problems – pensions and retirement, the incorporation of migrants, and the alleviation of pollution and other negative externalities – are ultimately a reflection of the structure of whether the right level of government dominates particular choices, and whether the fiscal structure leaves them with the budgetary resources they need.

[Much the same can be said of the US, as our governmental structure is very much a reflection of our colonial past.]

Part III. Migration

China’s development is a story of migration, one significant component of the greatest social transformation in human history. Referring to our readings – Li’s Village China, Hessler’s China Driving and to Miller’s China’s Urban Billion – discuss both the sending and the receiving side. First, what does “migration” mean? Second, who is the typical migrant, and who benefits (or perhaps is hurt) by their migration? Third, is the current structure of migration stable? – what will stop migration, how will its structure evolve, and why/so what?

Be selective! The key thing is to prioritize by what you judge matters most. For each of the questions I pose, you may want to start with a bullet list. Given time constraints you can realistically elaborate on only two points [eg, one on the sending side, one on the receiving].