Why Negotiate Now?

A lot of Arguments are made in favour of negotiating a settlement with Pakistan, on everything from Kashmir to Sir Creek. But does Negotiation now hold any meaning at all? Is settlement even viable at this stage?

I don't believe this is the right time for a negotiation on such key issues, let alone an atmosphere for settlement.

The Pak military feeds on the fear of the bogeyman to justify its spending. It needs the presence of the enemy to justify its size. There is a need to show belligerence towards its existential threat to envoke the support of the masses, and of China. Thats one aspect of the military thinking.

The other aspect is its thinking wrt national security. It sees Kashmir as the "juggular vein" of Pakistan, but it also see it through the prism of entitlement. But most of all, it sees relations between India and Pakistan as one of equals, and indeed sees the two as equal military powers

For a long time this was indeed true, we were equals, with similar goals and economies. It made sense then for the Pak establishment (both political and military) to negotiate as equals, whether it be on Kashmir or Siachin or Sir Creek. But even then, they entered the negotiations with the 'more than equals' attitude. All negotiations were seen in the light of them attaining something and India losing. The expectation was/is that India must give up its claim or ceede ground. All settlements must be on their terms

In the mean time, the Economy of India took off while they lagged behind. The disparity grew and slowly but surely so did the military disparity. The realisation has sunk in the last decade of the futility of attempting to match India, either economically or militarily. We see this in their military posture, from belligerent offensive forces to defensive doctrines. The military has adjusted/is adjusting to this new reality, in terms of doctrines and battle expectations.

But the diplomatic mindset still continues to hold onto the decades old expectation of equality. Only when the general public, the military and the politicians accept the superiority of India over them and tone down their expectations will a negotiation be meaningful.

It must become clear to them that as the superior power, India will not & need not accept any agreement/settlement on the terms of Pakistanis. Afterall, why should they? Its illogical, infact downright stupid, that someone in a superior position would forgoe their advantage and bend backwards to the demands of a hostile, especially when the hostile is demanding it forcefully.

Nearly Everyone in power realises this fact, those who dont will come around to it in the near future. But even then, will they be able to expose the general public to this reality. Afterall, anyone, either politician or from the military will risk their careers and life making such an announcement. Years of false information, indoctrination about he Pakistani superiority by everyone worth something in politics of Pakistan have twisted the Pakistani public into believing a mirage, shielding them from the sandstorm of reality that hurtles towards them.

Until the genral public of Pakistan is awaken to the new world, the new order of hierarchy, any negotiation is meaningless. Until the drums of 'Kashmir banega Pakistan' is drowned out by the humility of their standing, the negotiations will be an endless circular ritual, meaningless and wasteful expenditure of time. The Pakistanis must be impressed upon that Kashmir cannot be taken by force, or by proxy. And it will never be simply handed over in a settlement. Settlement does not mean they get everything they claim and India loses.

The prickly issues will have to be settled, whether today or tomorrow or a century from now. And it will always be as per the terms of the superior party. Pakistanis will eventually be forced to realise this. The bitter pill must be swallowed.But the problem for them is that every year that passes, the pill becomes even bitter. The rules begin to favour India more and more.

India need not be in a hurry to solve these issues. Infact, it is in our interest to delay a settlement (in favour of Pak) at this stage. Despite the claimed benefits of a settlement over Kashmir, including peace & tranquility on the border, we can't be certain the game ends at Kashmir. Punjab burnt once, and there is no guarantee that another region will not burn again given another chance to the western neighbour.