Perhaps due to their commodity-trading operations, these companies were expected to be immune from the mark-to-market vagaries of the commodity collapse on their balance sheet, and as such presented far less interest to market participants than pure-play miners whose stocks have gotten crushed since the commodity collapse and subsequent relapse.

So with Wall Street's attention suddenly focused, with the usual delay, almost exclusively on the commodity hybrids, it was none other than Bank of America which earlier today reserved a very special place for a possible collapse of these companies. In fact, the "credit event" (read "failure") of a company like Glencore is precisely what BofA's Michael Hartnett said "may be necessary to cause policy-makers to panic."

Bank of America starts with a chart that ZH readers are all too familiar with: a comparison of the CDS of Noble and Glencore which as duly noted many times already, have recently spiked:

And here is why Bank of America decided to suddenly focus on a small subset of the commodity sector, one which we have been fascinated with for over a month: to BofA the collapse of either of these two companies is the necessary and/or sufficient condition for the Fed to exit its recent trance, and reenter and bailout the market.

That's right: Bank of America is begging for another Fed-assisted market bailout, which gladly hints would be accelerated should Glencore experience a premature "credit event." To wit:

Short-term, markets seem intent on forcing either the Fed to pass in September, or the Chinese to launch a more comprehensive and credible policy package to boost growth expectations. Alternatively, a credit event in commodities (note CDS is widening sharply for resources companies – front page chart) may be necessary to cause policy-makers to panic. Markets stop panicking when central banks start panicking. We think that is increasingly likely in September, thus arguing that risk-takers should soon look to add risk, particularly on any further weakness.

We thank Bank of America for making it quite clear what the catalyst for QE4 will be (and why we should double down on the Glencore long CDS trade), but we are confused: how is the Fed expected to "panic" in September when that is when BofA's crack economists predict the Fed will hike rates. If anything, a rate hike is supposed to calm the market and give confidence that the Fed is on top of the situation, even if as has been clearly the case, the US economy, not to mention the global one, are both going into reverse.

And while that is a major loose end to any trading thesis BofA may want to present, it does hedge by saying that all bets on a market bailout are off if the Fed and other central banks have now "lost their potency", i.e., if the market's faith in money printing has ended.

Finally, we believe the inexorable rise in volatility as QE programs wane leads to the ultimate risk. In our view, all investment strategies have been tied in recent years to the power of central banks. There are few bond vigilantes willing to punish profligate governments, fewer currency speculators willing to defy central bank intervention, and investors have become adept at front-running policy-makers and/or expecting central banks will “blink” at signs of market volatility. We believe a loss of central bank potency is an unambiguous risk-off.

Indeed, we too believe that if not even central banks can boost this market, then the time to get the hell out of Dodge is at hand. And while exiting, make sure to have a lot of gold, silver and lead. Because if the days of Keynesian voodoo and fiat are almost over, then absolutely nobody has any idea what lies ahead.

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the question isnt rather or not the fed/govt will be forced into another bailout,(thats inevitable) the question is rather or not it will lead to irrivocable damage to the dollar worldwide. We are in a pretty unique situation right now, we create currency out of thin air, and the rest of the world gives us precious commodities for it. It won't last forever

Bailout? you mean bail-in....The bankers will try anything to get the money that they believe is theirs. We need to end the fed. Until then, we are slaves to their system. Support the only candidate who wants to end the fed and their schemes!

Every candle sold now through September 7th will go to support the Rand Paul moneybomb on September 7th! Rand is the only one with the anti-fed record. He is the only one who has plans to end the evil banking sytsem!

"I don't oppose the Federal Reserve because it is secretive, though it is," said Rand Paul at an April 25, 2009, "End the Fed" rally. "I don't oppose the Federal Reserve because it lacks congressional oversight, although it does. I don't oppose the Federal Reserve because it's a private cartel, though it is. I oppose the Federal Reserve primarily because it wreaks havoc on the economy. We need to understand that this is the most important question of the last 30, 40 years. What caused the panic of 2008? Was it capitalism or was it the Federal Reserve?"

I love the Paul's. I know how popular conspiracies are, especially here on ZH. However, you do not need big invisible conspiracies to understand precisely what Rand and Ron mean. The government IS the root of all evil. Even if you really really like the Jewish, Bildeberger, CIA, Mossad, banker, Sachs, 9-11 Inside Job, Illumanti, John Bircher, neofascist conspiracies the solution to virtually all of them is the same; disempower government/s.

It's not the stuff you cannot see you have to worry about. The stuff right in front of our faces is more than enough.

Look at his voting record. His meaningless endorsement means next to nothing. Libertarians are supposed to have brains to understand the issues. They aren't supposed to support someone just because someone made an endorsement.

If you really like Ron Paul and need endorsements to tell you who to support, (again, why would you?) you should still support Rand. Ron Paul endorsed Rand just a few days ago.

Rand tried to take advantage of his father's steadfast message of liberty and combined it with trying to play nice with the establishment - which Ron refused. Rand played politics as opposed to being a true statesman. He thought he could combine the two and win - then came TRUMP.

Yup. You said it! Trump is here to drown out the only voice of liberty (as watered down as you think it is). Hooray for Trump! Im so grateful that he is here to make sure the liberty message wont get out!

His whatever-it's-called on the patriot act renewal carried a lot of water for me. Basically stood up there alone against tyranny. When Trump starts talking about fascism in the USSA he will have some credibilty. When he starts raising questions about 9/11. When he points out that the drive to war with Iran because of its alleged nuke program is identical to that 15 years ago over Iraq and its alleged WMD. Until then, he's just another loudmouth. 8 years ago it was a smooth-talking nigger. Now it's a smooth-talking real estate developer. When th e fuck will the US wake up?

We are definitely getting close to the breaking point all around the world. Greece is back in the news with snap elections and that hardly is a blip on the screen these days. Who knows how much time is left to prepare for this debacle. I've plugged these guys before but if you don't have a firearm and are looking for one, check these out. The least expensive for what you are getting. Here's a new write up from "on target" magazine that outlines what is standard on these excellent rifles. PS Made next town over and I know people who work for them (disclaimer).

Also, take stock of your food supplies as they exist today and make sure you top off things you have used or don't have. You need 3 months minimum along with water if you are on other than a well with back up electric source (or hand pump).

tall tom, I agree 100%. he has gone back on everything intresting he has ever said. as soon as he gets a little heat about something, he backtracks. Case in point, his position on ending ALL foreign aid got a bunch of heat from republicans about "surely that doesn't mean Israel, too?" what does rand do, 'of course I support israel, I don't mean we should stop giving them taxpayers dollars, just countries that burn our flag'. He DOES support taxing US citizens to give the money to other countries. Thats not the only thing, either. At this point, he is nothing a but another garden variety republican. In trying to pander to the republican base, he lost too many of his fathers supporters to be meaningful, he is done

Yep, Rand Paul imploded. Leaving Bernie Sanders as the most anti-Fed one left standing. He was the driving force behind the Fed audit and has grilled the shit out of Fed Chairmen during hearings and testimony (both as a Representative and Senator).

Most posters here don't like Sanders (I do). But he is the only one standing with us on the Fed issue.

Rand is still anti-fed. There is still half a year until the of America votes, and about 4 months until the first votes are cast. He is not toast. The only way he is toast is if the people who realize that the Federal Reserve is the biggest problem of the past century roll over and accept some other candidate because he shouts funny things or because the press is pumping them. Look, I think that there is a possibility that the SHTF before the election, but if it doesn't don't you want someone in there that will try tyo stop bail-ins, capital controls, QEs, martial law, Fema camps, etc?

There really is only one choice vote for Rand or don't vote at all. Any other vote gives you the same result: the Fed in control!

C'mon. There is a HUGE difference between guns for legit purposes (which Sanders is Ok with) and ASSAULT WEAPONS. If you believe citizens really need ASSAULT WEAPONS then we are already toast like Rand Paul.

The purpose for weapons and arms (assault is a term coined by gun grabbers to make it seem like the weapon itself has a agenda) is for protection. Any weapon can be used for multiple purposes. Shotguns are great for home defense. Handguns are good for concealing, traveling and stopping rapes and muggers. Riffles are good for holding an area. You could be holding from riots and mobs or evil governments.

History has shown that when a government takes the guns, that they soon take the lives and freedom of the citizens. Look at Hitler and Mao. Or if you want an example closer to home, how about the Indians.

The Japanese Emperor once said that America couldn't be taken over from the outside because there would be a riffle behind every blade of grass. Theglobalists (Trump, Sanders, Clinton, obama and the rest of the goons) want to disarm the population. If you dont want your guns then don't own one.

If we are toast, and shit is ready to hit the fan I'd rather have a defense riffle, than a can of mase and a phone to dial 9-11.

Time is running out to protect yourself and your family. I hope you realize that you can't rely on the government to do that, unless you want to go to a FEMA camp. I heard they have sweet protection and don't allow assault weapons.

The government gets its rights from the people, not vice versa. There should be zero talk about the people getting their god given rights of defense and protection taken, especially before the government has that right taken. The amount of guns that the alphabet soup of givt agencies have now is stupid. If you are against weapons, start with theirs. Because we have more rights than our government. If not, who does the government get its power and rights from....read Bastiat's 'The Law'

Can you please explain exactly what your definition of an assault weapon is. You certainly do not hesitate to mention the term several times in all caps so you must have a pretty clear and concise idea of what the fuck it is you want to ban. Also, who exactly is the great decider who chooses which guns have legit purposes and which are non-legit, or less legit, or only semi-legit, or seasonally adjusted legit.

Real classy. I'm thinking in terms of a detachable magazine when I say assault weapon.

I believe in civil liberties as much as anyone on ZH (anti NSA spying, etc, etc, etc).

But there are some people such as yourself (apparently) who envision the right to arm yourself in this fashion as though you expect to go out in a blaze of glory. You know, defending yourself and your home against an army of armed government agents coming specifically to seize your property. Or you want to blow away anyone you don't like under the guise of self protection. Your utter over-reation is precisely why the issue cannot be reasonably addressed. Heck, you have to resort to this puerile crap. Go ahead mr. manly cool dude & have a nice day.

Ahh jesus. Another fucking moron. Look, the 2nd amendment didn't say anything about "legit purposes", there were no caveats whatsoever. What is so difficult to understand about "the right of the citizens to keep and bear arms shall not be infringed"?

Incidentally, if what you mean by "assault weapons" is battle rifles, then there is EVERY fucking reason for the citizens to keep them. The point of the 2nd amendment is it's a (or was hoped to be a) guarantee against government tyranny. Your .22 repeater is not a lot of use there. Battle rifles are. That's what they do. And the founders considered it a "legitimate purpose".

at this point all the fed can do is more QE. raising rates brings the financial system to its kness, if there is a large market crash, deflationary event, or credit contraction (whatever you want to call it) there is only one policy response for the fed, and that is more QE. they'll save the markets, govt, and banks by killing everything else.

We are under the 68 week moving average in the ES which if we remain for any appreciable amount of time marks the start of the bear market. That is the death average with the exception of the 2011 rout and subsequent stick save by the FED.

First they came for the miners and you did nothing cause you weren't in the miners,

Then they came for the drillers and you still did nothing cause you weren't involved in the energy sector,

Then they came for your small caps but only speculators trade the small caps so you remained balls to the wall long the story stocks, buying every dip, Apple back to 1000 you would think to yourself at night as you blew coke off the 2000$ hookers asses.

Now they are coming for the story stocks and you are trapped like a rat on a sinking ship that is already under water.

Clearly the only variable is the FED. Will they come in and save us like they did in China? How is that going over there by the way?