Three desal plans would miss state deadline, study says

A consultant's comparison study of three proposed desalination projects has found that the water the projects produce will cost about the same.

However, the study also found that none of the three projects would likely beat the deadline for providing a replacement source of water.

Those were among the highlights of a draft study released by Separation Processes Inc., a consulting firm hired by the Monterey Peninsula Regional Water Authority to compare the desal projects: Cal Am's north Marina plant, Brent Constantz's Deep Water Desal and Nader Agha's People's Desal Project.

The draft study, which will be reviewed by the water authority's technical advisory committee on Tuesday and the authority board in a special session on Wednesday, evaluates various aspects of the projects including an overview of the proposals, their functions and costs, and implementation challenges. While the study suggested that each of the proposals had challenges, it found that none of them had a "fatal flaw."

Carlsbad-based SPI was hired by the authority in August to conduct the study for $60,000, and worked in collaboration with Kris Helm Consulting.

The study was based on information gathered in a 56-item questionnaire with responses from the three project backers, and subsequent interviews with each of them. It used that information to compare desal plants capable of producing either up to 9.4 acre feet or up to 5 acre feet per year, enough to meet the projected demand depending on whether a proposed groundwater replenishment project is available.

SPI's study doesn't include a detailed financial analysis but the Monterey Peninsula Water Management District has provided its own.

Cal Am spokeswoman Catherine Bowie said company officials were still reviewing the study but a "preliminary read" suggested it was a "fair and thorough analysis."

Water activist George Riley, who serves on the regional water authority's technical advisory committee, said the study did a "pretty good job of apples-to-apples comparison," but argued the study was only a "starting point" for assessing a preferred project most capable of reaching completion.

Riley also questioned why the project schedule assumptions seemed so different for each of the proposals. He said Cal Am's project cost benefitted from an initial $99 million infusion of cash from ratepayers not applied to either of the other projects.

Representatives from Deep Water Desal and the People's Desal Project also questioned some of the project's assumptions, including financing details, as well as the exclusion of potential stumbling blocks such as the prohibition on exportation of groundwater from the Salinas Valley and the county's public desal ownership requirement.

The study says Cal Am's desal plant would cost $207 million to $175 million to build, depending on size, with annual operations and maintenance costs of between $11 million and $7.77 million, for a product water cost of between $2,555 and $3,250 per acre foot.

The study found Deep Water Desal's project would cost between $160 million and $134 million to construct, along with annual operations and maintenance costs of between $12.3 million and $9.38 million, for an annual product water cost of between $2,395 and $3,120 per acre foot, while the People's Project was estimated at between $190 million and $161 million in capital costs, between $10.1 million and $7.06 million to operate and maintain, for an annual product water cost of between $2,345 and $2,980 per acre foot.

Bowie suggested a major reason Cal Am's project was estimated to be the most expensive was it had predicted higher power costs than the others, and it would ultimately be able to lower the cost estimate so its project would be the least expensive. In its evaluation of the three proposals' projected timeline, the study had Cal Am leading the way, followed by Deep Water Desal and finally the People's Project, though the study found that none of them would be online by the end of 2016, the state-ordered deadline for cutting back on pumping from the Carmel River.

The study said Cal Am's plant could be built as soon as mid-2017 and able to deliver water by the end of that year. Deep Water Desal's plant could be finished by spring of 2018 and able to deliver water by fall 2018, and the People's Project plant could be done as early as spring 2019 and delivering water by the end of that year, the study found.

The study found there are unresolved issues and questions involving each of the proposals, including public ownership, legal challenges, the use of slant wells and open ocean intake, and community opposition.

The authority's technical advisory committee meets at 1:30 p.m. Tuesday and the authority board meets at 7:30 p.m. Wednesday, both in Monterey city council chambers.