There is always a chance of reversal on rehearing. If en banc is granted, that's bad, as by definition, a majority of the court has already voted to vacate the panel opinion. And there is no doubt that invalidating a state statute is always a big deal, particularly a state statute imposing gun control (especially in the current political climate). That all said, Rule 35 imposes a tough standard, requiring an intercircuit or intracircuit conflict and the petition notwithstanding, there is no such direct conflict here. Still, the issue is clearly important so it is a close call. I'll have a better feel if they ask for an answer and I get a chance to see what Gura says in that answer.