Hurricane FAUSTO (Text)

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HURRICANE FAUSTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 22
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072008
800 AM PDT MON JUL 21 2008
HURRICANE FAUSTO'S MID TO UPPER LEVEL CENTER IS BECOMING DECOUPLED
FROM THE SURFACE CIRCULATION. WHILE GEOSTATIONARY INFRARED
SATELLITE PICTURES SUGGESTED A CONTINUED TRACK TOWARD THE NORTHWEST
OVERNIGHT...MICROWAVE IMAGERY FROM AMSR AND AMSU INSTEAD SHOW THAT
THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS SUBSTANTIALLY SOUTHWEST OF THE 06Z AND 12Z
GEOSTATIONARY-BASED POSITION ESTIMATES. THIS DECOUPLING ALSO
INDICATES THAT THE HURRICANE MAY NOT BE AS STRONG AS SUGGESTED BY
THE DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB. THE AFOREMENTIONED AMSU
PASS AT 0936Z GAVE AN INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM CIMSS OF 67
KT...WHICH IS SUBSTANTIALLY WEAKER THAN EARLIER AMSU ANALYSES. THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS ESTIMATED TO BE 70 KT...BUT THIS MAY BE
SLIGHTLY ON THE HIGH SIDE.
FAUSTO IS MOVING AT AN UNCERTAIN 300 DEGREES AT 12 KT. THE CYCLONE
IS SITUATED SOUTHWEST OF A DEEP-LAYERED RIDGE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO
AND SOUTHEAST OF A VIGOROUS CUTOFF LOW WEST OF CALIFORNIA. GIVEN
THE DECOUPLING OF THE LOW AND MID-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS THAT APPEARS
TO BE OCCURRING...FAUSTO SHOULD NO LONGER FEEL THE INFLUENCE OF THE
MID AND UPPER LEVEL FEATURES AND INSTEAD BE INCREASINGLY ADVECTED
ALONG BY THE LOWER LEVEL FLOW. THE FORECAST IS A CONSENSUS OF THE
GFDL...UKMET...NOGAPS...AND ECMWF MODELS AND IS SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
THE DECOUPLING MAY BE DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF INCREASINGLY HOSTILE
THERMODYNAMICS AND MODERATE SOUTHERLY SHEAR IMPACTING THE CYCLONE.
CONTINUED WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED AS FAUSTO SHOULD MOVE OVER EVEN
COLDER WATERS WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. THE INTENSITY
FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE LGEM...SHIPS...HWRF...AND GFDL
MODELS...BUT IS SUBSTANTIALLY LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 21/1500Z 20.4N 116.8W 70 KT
12HR VT 22/0000Z 21.1N 118.4W 55 KT
24HR VT 22/1200Z 21.8N 120.5W 45 KT
36HR VT 23/0000Z 22.2N 122.4W 35 KT
48HR VT 23/1200Z 22.6N 123.9W 30 KT
72HR VT 24/1200Z 23.5N 127.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 25/1200Z...DISSIPATED
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FORECASTER LANDSEA/KNABB
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