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Sunday, September 16, 2018

Here is an update after MD1 and MD2 in the UEFA Nations League 2018/2019 of the probabilities (in %) for each team to end in each pot -generated over 10.000 simulations- with teams ordered by their average UNL-ranking position.The simulation results before the start of the UNL 2018/2019 and more details about the EURO 2020 qualification can be found here.The pots are indicated by the dotted lines.

team

pot 1

pot 2

pot 3

pot 4

pot 5

pot 6

Spain

100,00

0,00

0

0

0

0

Belgium

99,97

0,03

0

0

0

0

France

99,88

0,12

0

0

0

0

Portugal

99,45

0,55

0

0

0

0

Switzerland

99,64

0,36

0

0

0

0

Germany

87,56

12,44

0

0

0

0

Poland

85,83

14,17

0

0

0

0

Croatia

77,86

22,14

0

0

0

0

Italy

82,77

17,23

0

0

0

0

Netherlands

74,64

25,36

0

0

0

0

----------------------------------------

England

70,63

29,37

0

0

0

0

Iceland

21,77

78,23

0

0

0

0

Ukraine

0

98,53

1,47

0

0

0

Bosnia-Herzegovina

0

98,64

1,36

0

0

0

Denmark

0

90,25

9,75

0

0

0

Russia

0

81,94

18,06

0

0

0

Wales

0

80,48

19,52

0

0

0

Turkey

0

70,36

29,64

0

0

0

Austria

0

66,82

33,18

0

0

0

Slovakia

0

65,74

34,26

0

0

0

----------------------------------------

Sweden

0

47,70

52,30

0

0

0

Czech Republic

0

35,73

64,27

0

0

0

Northern Ireland

0

34,54

65,46

0

0

0

Republic of Ireland

0

29,27

70,73

0

0

0

Scotland

0

0

87,85

12,15

0

0

Bulgaria

0

0

88,05

11,95

0

0

Finland

0

0

67,10

32,90

0

0

Serbia

0

0

62,07

37,93

0

0

Greece

0

0

46,45

53,55

0

0

Albania

0

0

43,86

56,14

0

0

----------------------------------------

Romania

0

0

41,27

58,73

0

0

Norway

0

0

44,49

55,51

0

0

Montenegro

0

0

33,71

66,29

0

0

Hungary

0

0

37,83

62,17

0

0

Israel

0

0

19,06

80,94

0

0

Cyprus

0

0

11,73

88,27

0

0

Slovenia

0

0

11,97

88,03

0

0

Estonia

0

0

3,99

96,01

0

0

Lithuania

0

0

0,57

99,43

0

0

Georgia

0

0

0

35,45

64,52

0,03

----------------------------------------

FYR Macedonia

0

0

0

39,12

60,83

0,05

Belarus

0

0

0

10,20

89,57

0,23

Luxembourg

0

0

0

9,29

90,65

0,06

Kosovo

0

0

0

3,42

92,95

3,63

Armenia

0

0

0

2,20

95,17

2,63

Azerbaijan

0

0

0

0,09

83,95

15,96

Faroe Islands

0

0

0

0,17

77,15

22,68

Moldova

0

0

0

0,03

90,75

9,22

Kazakhstan

0

0

0

0,00

69,56

30,44

Latvia

0

0

0

0,01

65,32

34,67

----------------------------------------

Liechtenstein

0

0

0

0,02

58,99

40,99

Malta

0

0

0

0,00

27,93

72,07

Andorra

0

0

0

0,00

23,59

76,41

Gibraltar

0

0

0

0,00

7,83

92,17

San Marino

0

0

0

0,00

1,24

98,76

Compared to the simulations before the start of the UNL it can be seen that France, Switzerland, Belgium, Portugal and Spain all cemented their pot 1 spot. Iceland was the only one to throw their pot 1 chances down the gutter.

Further down Ukraine and Bosnia-Herzegovina cemented their pot 2 spot with good wins while Sweden had a bad, unexpected result against Turkey that could well make them drop to pot 3.

Bulgaria are firmly on their way to a pot 3 spot, while Georgia and FYR Macedonia made good progress to the last pot 4 spot from League D.

About me:

Software engineer, happily unmarried and non-religious. You won't find me on Twitter or other so called social media. Dutchman, joined the blog in March 2018.