May 23, 2012

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Democrat Tom Barrett tried to blunt the effect of recent polls that show Republican Gov. Scott Walker opening a lead in the June 5 recall election by releasing internal polling showing a dead heat.

In a news release Tuesday, Barrett’s campaign said a survey conducted May 19-21 gives Walker a 50 to 47 lead that falls within the poll’s four-point margin of error. The poll also showed Barrett leading 50 to 44 among independents.

So is the Democratic poll, conducted by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research, a bluff or a barometer of Wisconsin’s electorate?

There are different schools of thought on the value of internal polls and the strategy of releasing them.

In 2010, Washington Post political analyst Chris Cillizza addressed the issue after House Republicans issued a series of internal polling showing they were competitive in districts previously considered solidly Democratic. Among those districts were Ohio’s 13th and Oregon’s 1st.

By releasing internal polling five months before the 2010 election, Republicans achieved two ends: 1. They garnered media attention about races previously considered noncompetitive; 2. They put pressure on Democrats to release their own internal polling to confirm or refute the Republican polling results.

Barrett pollster Fred Yang told The Washington Post the campaign’s polling is more accurate than polls released last week that showed Walker leading because it was conducted after Barrett ramped up his advertising efforts.

Releasing an internal poll can be seen as a sign of strength that galvanizes donors and motivates volunteers. Or it can be merely a distraction the other party chooses to ignore because it does nothing but draw attention to the competition even when the race isn’t very close.

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Walker’s campaign didn’t respond directly Tuesday to the Barrett poll numbers, though Republican strategist Mark Graul told the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel that “polling all shows the same thing — (Walker) has a statistically insignificant lead but it’s a lead.”

So what happened in the Ohio and Oregon districts in 2010? Democrats in both districts crushed their opponents, though they had five months of campaigning after the polls were released compared with the two weeks remaining in Wisconsin’s recall race.

Jim Dean says the election will come down to how many Democrats turn out in Dane, Eau Claire and Racine counties.

Democratic pollster Paul Maslin told the Journal Sentinel on Tuesday that “there’s a sleeping giant out there and it’s more on our side than theirs.”

He thinks Barrett will win if 2.5 million or more people vote June 5.

In 2010, when Walker beat Barrett by just under 125,000 votes, 2.16 million people voted. In the 2008 presidential election, when Barack Obama beat John McCain by just over 410,000 votes, 2.98 million people voted.

By now, episodes of the television program "Cops" and popular YouTube videos have forced Taser use into the public eye. There's no secret what's about to happen when the familiar yellow contraption is displayed.