Everyone always says to pay attention to the first two months or so to look for stars of the season. There always seems to be players that go completely undrafted that end up making big contributions to a team. So how do you recognize that player and be the first to jump on him? What sticks out that says you need to pick up that player immediately?

Drew Stubbs - has the tools, pedigree, opportunity (yes, he will be leading off), and the power looks to be legit. Could see him pull in a crazy year of 20+/35+.

Gio Gonzalez - the K's are for real. If he harnesses his control and walks less, he could be top 5 in K's this year. OH, and he just landed the 5th spot in the A's rotation.

Ervin Santana - Yes, that Santana. He will be doubted in the beginning, then the usual "sell high injury risk" rotoworld captions come out. However, he keeps on producing, stays healthy, and ends the year as a top 10 SP.

Drew Stubbs - has the tools, pedigree, opportunity (yes, he will be leading off), and the power looks to be legit. Could see him pull in a crazy year of 20+/35+.

Gio Gonzalez - the K's are for real. If he harnesses his control and walks less, he could be top 5 in K's this year. OH, and he just landed the 5th spot in the A's rotation.

Ervin Santana - Yes, that Santana. He will be doubted in the beginning, then the usual "sell high injury risk" rotoworld captions come out. However, he keeps on producing, stays healthy, and ends the year as a top 10 SP.

I like the Santana and Stubbs picks, although I think you should keep your expectations reasonable on Stubbs.

Those are good predictions but I was more looking for, how can I know whether they are getting lucky in the first month two or if he will produce all year? Not specific players, although that helps too.

skjelstrom wrote:Those are good predictions but I was more looking for, how can I know whether they are getting lucky in the first month two or if he will produce all year? Not specific players, although that helps too.

With batters, it helps to look for any statistical outliers in the following ratios (compare their stats for the year to their career averages in the majors (and, if there is not a large enough sample, minors):HR/FB% BABIPContact rate (i.e., how much they are striking out)Plate Discipline (BB:K)

A high BABIP or HR/FB % could indicate they are performing over their heads, and vice versa (Low ratios would indicate potential for improvement)If they are striking out too much yet still have a high average, it could indicate they are getting "lucky"An improvement approach at the plate, including but certainly not limited to BB:K ratio (pitches/AB is also a helpful statistic) would indicate some potential for improvement.These are just a few for hitters. I'm sure there are some sabermetric/stat heads here who can bring up more.

For pitchers, look at LOB % (strand rate), BABIP, HR allowed, K:BB ratio, and ERA vs. WHIP (ties in with Strand rate and HR allowed). These are just a few starting points. I don't have time to explain in detail now but I'm sure others can answer your questions or provide more detailed advice.

Often times you can't identify a true break out until it's too late (someone else already grabbed him). Don't be afraid to grab guys on a hot streak early for the chance that it continues. If you have some under-performers on your team, don't wait to make the switch.

I don't think anyone has a definitive way to identify unheard of players truly busting out early in the season. At that point, the sample size is often too small to make any absolute claims. You need to look for guys who are producing regardless of the situation (home/away, day/night, etc), who have the skill set to keep it up (based on minor league track record, scouting consensus, etc), and who have some level of sustained production (i.e., weeks of high level play rather than days).

You just have to be faster than everyone else. Making educated moves early often leads to success later.

"Don't take anything for granted, because tomorrow is not promised to any of us." ---Kirby Puckett