Probability of possible outcomes

The future is never certain. But using our advanced modelling techniques, we can
estimate the probability of the various possible outcomes at the next general election.
('Nat' means SNP+PlaidC)

Tactical voting in the Euro elections

Practical advice for tactical voting

Can tactical voting work under the Euro elections' PR system? Some commentators have cast
theoretical doubt on it, but the evidence shows that it could win lots of seats.

On both sides of the Brexit debate, voters are split between several parties: UKIP/Brexit
on the Leave side; and Lib Dem/Green/Change UK/SNP/Plaid Cymru on Remain.

Electoral Calculus recently provided independent forecasting of the Euro election result
for pro-Remain group Remain United who want
to encourage pro-Remain tactical voting. That analysis suggested the simple tactical voting strategy
of voting for the leading pro-Remain party in each electoral region.

Some academics and commentators have questioned this advice and suggested that other approaches
might be better. We had a look at the evidence, and it seems to support the original advice.
Voters, both Leavers and Remainers, are well-advised to concentrate their votes with a single party
in the Euro elections and not to split them.

You can also see technical details of the methodology
in this PDF document.

Posted 16 May 2019

Political Analysis

Three-D Politics and the Seven Tribes

A major new piece of analysis by Electoral Calculus
and pollster ComRes creates a three-dimensional
landscape of British politics and identifies the seven political tribes which occupy it.

Electoral Calculus has moved beyond a simplistic one-dimensional view of politics, and
even gone further than our own pioneering two-dimensional view, to create a three key dimensions of
political attitudes:

Using major polling work by the British Election Study, we can give a political three-D position for
each poll respondent identifying their political position on each of the three dimensions.

Groups of like-minded individuals can be spotted to identify seven political tribes of people with similar
political attitudes, and gain insight about their demographics and voting behaviour.

The Seven Tribes have also been
reported
in today's Daily Telegraph.
You can see the full details of the Electoral Calculusanalysis here
on our website.

You can also find out your own 3D political position, and that of your neighbourhood, by taking
our short 3D survey.

Posted 20 April 2019

Regression-based prediction

Regression-based ComRes/ElCalc poll shows increased Labour lead

Working with leading pollster ComRes, Electoral Calculus has applied
modern regression-based techniques to show an increased Labour lead over the Conservatives.

Regression techniques, also known as MRP, are growing in popularity in the market research
industry as a way to make polling more accurate again. Classic polling techniques have had problems
with accuracy in recent years as representative sampling becomes harder.

Working jointly with ComRes, we have applied the regression techniques to recent
polls. Those polls showed Labour and the Conservatives about equally popular, when they were
analysed with conventional polling techniques. But under the new regression techniques, they
show a Labour lead of 4pc over the Conservatives.

General Election 2017

Current Voting Intention

Party

Vote Share

Seats

Vote Share

Seats

Change

CON

43.5%

318

32.6%

277

−41

LAB

41.0%

262

34.7%

290

28

LIB

7.6%

12

8.6%

15

3

UKIP

1.9%

0

5.9%

0

0

Green

1.7%

1

3.2%

0

-1

TIG

0.0%

0

8.6%

0

0

SNP

3.1%

35

3.7%

47

12

PC

0.5%

4

0.7%

3

-1

An additional feature of regression techniques is that they give a seat-by-seat
breakdown which each seat is individually predicted, rather than relying on uniform
national swing assumptions.

Three-D Politics

Final New Boundaries

Now Boundaries 2018
is updated with the final proposals from the Boundary
Commissions published on 10 September 2018.

Posted 12 September 2018

Features available

This website explains where these predictions come from, and lets
you make your own predictions. There are
also detailed predictions of every seat, including a list of target
vulnerable seats, and a complete nationwide list of seat predictions.

Also freely available are data files containing the seat-by-seat results of all
general elections since 1983.