Donald Trump’s meeting Tuesday with Nancy Pelosi and Chuck Schumer may go a long way toward determining whether the government enters a partial shutdown before Christmas.

But as Democrats seriously re-engage with Trump for the first time in nearly a year, their broad distrust of the president has expectations for a deal at rock bottom.

Story Continued Below

“We’ve had limited success in dealing with this president,” said Senate Minority Whip Dick Durbin (D-Ill.). “His word isn’t good. Within 48 hours he reverses himself. It’s very difficult to enter into a long-term agreement.”

The House and Senate Democratic leaders have been here before. Multiple times over the past two years they thought they'd cut a deal with Trump only to see him swiftly trash “Chuck and Nancy” and demand hefty conservative concessions.

Now Trump is threatening to shut down a large swath of the federal government if he doesn’t get billions in funding for his border wall.

Sign up here for POLITICO Huddle

A daily play-by-play of congressional news in your inbox.

Email

By signing up you agree to receive email newsletters or alerts from POLITICO. You can unsubscribe at any time.

But Democrats say they have no reason to think talks this week will end differently than they have in the past, according to interviews with more than a half-dozen House and Senate Democrats. And the Democratic leaders — constrained by an aggressive left flank in the party — are in no mood to even try to strike a sweeping immigration deal like in past negotiations.

Previously, they offered as much as $25 billion for Trump’s border wall in exchange for protecting 1.7 million young undocumented immigrants from deportation. That’s no longer on the table.

Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D-N.H.) said of such a trade these days: “I wouldn’t support it.”

“We’ve said we’ll fund the wall in exchange for addressing the Dreamers and immigration issues. He said ‘fine,’ and then he reneged,” Shaheen said.

“I understand their concerns,” said Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.), a close Trump ally who was undercut by the White House earlier this year during immigration negotiations. “It’s tougher around here now. We’ve had two or three stops and starts with immigration.”

Schumer and Pelosi have tried to project unity in recent days, saying they won’t give Trump the $5 billion he’s asking for and calling to keep Department of Homeland Security spending at current levels if needed to keep the government open.

But even as the Democratic leaders look to avoid a shutdown, they don’t have complete freedom to maneuver.

Pelosi is working to win over 218 Democratic votes for her speaker bid and can’t afford to alienate an emboldened left wing of her caucus. Schumer, too, is trying to brush off criticisms over his negotiating record from liberals who think he shouldn’t give the president any spending at all on a border barrier, even as Congress provided more than a billion dollars last year.

Pelosi has previewed her posture in recent remarks, saying she wants to punt the debate altogether with a stopgap Homeland Security funding bill.

In some ways, Pelosi is negotiating with Trump as much as she is with her own caucus. The California Democrat is just weeks away from clinching the speaker’s gavel for the second time but is currently short of the votes.

Pelosi knows she can’t be perceived by her caucus as acquiescing to Trump. That could anger many of the Democrats she’s counting on to deliver her the speakership, a group that includes incoming freshmen who want to abolish some immigration enforcement programs entirely.

Pelosi’s supporters say they’re confident of her position and that the longtime Democratic leader knows there’s “no compromise” with the president on his wall.

“I don’t think she would agree to [additional wall funding],” said Rep. Ro Khanna (D-Calif.). “I think the reason she has such support is that people believe she understands the lines beyond which we can’t compromise.”

Schumer, meanwhile, has endorsed a bipartisan Senate bill that provides $1.6 billion for “fencing” along the border. House Democrats are opposed to the Senate bill despite the fact many of them voted for a similar, if smaller, amount of border security funding earlier this year.

Rep. Filemon Vela of Texas, one of a dozen-plus Democrats working to block Pelosi’s speaker bid, has been sharply critical of the California Democrat in the past but trusts Pelosi much more than Schumer in talks with Trump.

“This is a New York City conspiracy, and Schumer is on the verge of giving Trump his third down payment on the wall,” Vela said.

While Republicans in the House could potentially round up enough votes to pass a government funding deal on their own, Senate GOP leaders will need at least a handful of Democrats to pass anything, giving Schumer significant leverage in funding talks.

“[Pelosi’s] position in that meeting is meaningless unless she and those of us who oppose the wall funding can ensure that we bring all the other Democrats along for the ride,” Vela said. “You might as well call this the Schumer-Trump wall in my view.”

Senate Democrats who know Schumer well said House Democrats are misreading the Senate leader.

“I would challenge whether there is much of a relationship with President Trump,” Sen. Ben Cardin of Maryland said of the current Schumer-Trump dynamic.

Sure, he’s open to talking to Trump, but the idea that the fix is in and Schumer will backstab liberals to help the president is pure fiction, they say.

“Schumer is a person who, if it doesn’t go well today, he’ll still get up tomorrow and say: ‘Is there a path forward?’ So he’s not going to let the president tweet something negative, make him mad and hold a grudge,” said Sen. Tim Kaine (D-Va.).

But Kaine cast doubt on the idea that there’s even an agreement to be had with Trump: “For him, immigration is about waving a bloody shirt before an election. If there’s a deal, what is there for him to talk about?”

But there needs to be a breakthrough if there’s any way around a shutdown on Christmas. Roughly a quarter of the government will shutter on Dec. 21 absent a funding agreement, and though congressional Republicans and Democrats would probably be able to avoid it on their own, Trump must sign any bill — facing the choice of either backing down or digging in for a long confrontation.

He’s made clear in meetings with Republicans that he wants $5 billion for the border wall in whatever he signs, which could give his reelection effort a boost by delivering on one of his key campaign pledges.

“We’ve basically worked out most of our funding. Most of it. Except the linchpin there,” said Senate Appropriations Chairman Richard Shelby (R-Ala.), referring to the border funding. “And that is the difference between the Democrats and the president.”

On cue, the president crowed over the wall in an appearance in Kansas City on Friday, declaring “it will be better than anybody’s ever seen” when he builds it. But to do so, he needs a lame-duck Congress to rally behind him, one with a House GOP majority limping out the door and Democrats digging in to stop Trump from claiming any victories.

With Democrats just weeks away from seizing control of the House, Vela said now is the time for his party to “draw a line in the sand.”

“If there were ever a time to send Trump a message, it’s now,” he said.