Stanford Athletic Director Bernard Muir said Friday that Johnny Dawkins will return as coach of the Stanford men's basketball team next season but gave him what sounds like a win-or-else ultimatum.

"We're disappointed we're not going to be in the mix for the Pac-12 tournament championship and the NCAA Tournament," Muir told The Chronicle. "We want to be in the mix next year. We want to set that expectation."

In five years under Dawkins, Stanford has a 39-51 record in Pac-12 play - 93-73 overall - and hasn't gotten past the second round of the conference tournament. The Cardinal haven't made the NCAA Tournament in any of those years after reaching it in 13 of the previous 14 seasons under Mike Montgomery and Trent Johnson.

Asked if next season will be a make-or-break year for Dawkins, Muir said, "At Stanford we want excellence in everything we do. We've fallen short in that regard. We have the makings of a very good team next year. We want to compete for a championship."

As expected, junior forward Dwight Powell announced he'll be coming back, too, rather than entering the NBA draft. An All-Pac-12 first-team selection, the 6-foot-10 Canadian led the Cardinal in scoring with a 15.4-point average and was named the conference's most improved player.

Stanford will have almost its whole roster back, including all five starters, plus sharpshooter Anthony Brown, who missed the season with a hip injury. The Cardinal are expected to be one of the favorites to win the Pac-12 in 2013-14.

"The opportunity to finish my degree and do something special with these guys makes it an easy decision," Powell said in a statement issued by the university.

This year's team was picked by conference coaches to finish fourth but instead finished in a four-way tie for sixth with a 9-9 record (18-14 overall) and lost in the first round of the Pac-12 tournament to ninth-seeded Arizona State in overtime.

The Cardinal are expected to receive a berth in the NIT when the pairings for that tournament are announced Sunday. Stanford won the event last year.

Home attendance has dropped for the fifth straight year. "We're going to have to rally the troops and get people back in Maples," Muir said. "I think that can occur."

Dawkins has been criticized by some analysts and fans, mainly for his game management.

Hall of Famer Bill Walton, an analyst for ESPN and the Pac-12 Networks, told the Rule of Tree, a website devoted to Stanford sports, that the Cardinal use too many players. "Stanford's biggest problem is that they don't have the ability to sustain the attack that the starters give them," he said. "When they go to the bench, it falls apart. But every game, the same thing happens. So why go to the bench?"

Muir said he has heard from many quarters about the basketball program and felt "it was important for me to set the record straight. The expectations have not been met."

Because of a two-year contract extension that then-athletic director Bob Bowlsby gave Dawkins in 2011, the school is committed to him through the 2015-16 season. He is believed to make $1 million a year.