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Richmond are right to want more than just Prestia for pick 6 #AFLTrades

Yesterday HPN looked at how Gold Coast could proceed with recycling Jaeger O’Meara into useful assets this trade period. The other significant trade chip the Suns have in 2016 is Dion Prestia.

With reports Richmond are reluctant to trade pick 6 without receiving anything in return other than Prestia, and that Prestia is now open to staying at Gold Coast, we thought we’d take a look at how this deal could most equitably proceed.

Dion Prestia is quite good. On recent form, he might be Gold Coast’s best midfielder to date not named Ablett. In 2014, at just 22 years old, Prestia polled 13 Brownlow votes.

He also gets moderately serious knee injuries. He had his 2016 campaign end in round 16 and his 2015 campaign in round 8 due to them. This brings down the value of the former number 9 pick, as it raises questions about how often he will be on the park for his new (or old) club. Our formula projects based on past history that he might be expected to play about 126 games over the remainder of his career.

Given this durability discount, Richmond are probably right to insist that a straight swap of 6 for Prestia be off the table. Here is something HPN would consider to be pretty equitable:

This exchange of picks balances out the greater expected output of pick 6 relative to Prestia, by upgrading their pick 46 to pick 26.

Academy selections must also be a strategic consideration for the Suns. Recent draft form guides have Jack Bowes around pick 5, which would leave the Suns able to use pick 6 to match that bid for him (and get pick 53 left over!) while selecting from the open draft with picks 4 and 8:

An early bid for Brad Scheer sees the Suns able to match with pick 22 and a very slight downgrade on pick 24. The Suns would still be left with two good picks in the 20s.

Verdict: If Richmond and the Suns were to agree to this trade, Richmond would get Prestia and a pick at 26 to go with picks 27 and 46 in the draft. The Suns would be in a position to select six top-30 players, even after giving up pick 26. In hindsight, if they get the majority of these picks right, this trade period may look like a spectacular coup for them.