South Africa will need home support – and luck

June 9, 2010

South Africa's possible team in their 4-2-3-1 system

They’re the lowest-ranked team in the tournament, the lowest-ranked hosts in history, and they’ve been drawn in a very difficult group despite having been the seeds. Is there any chance South Africa won’t become the first-ever hosts to fail to get past the group stage?

Let’s look at the positives. Firstly, they are on a twelve-match unbeaten run since Carlos Alberto Perreira took over that includes games against decent sides – Japan, Paraguay and Bulgaria. It was maintained with a 1-0 victory over Denmark last week. And Perreira himself has a wealth of experience, having lead Brazil to the World Cup in 1994, and having coached three other sides – UAE, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia – at World Cups. Finally, of course, they have home advantage.

South Africa’s tactical evolution under Perreira could be considered a microcosm of how the 4-2-3-1 came into existence. He started out with what was termed a 4-4-2, and insisted upon two defensive midfielders in the centre, which was very unpopular with the South African public. He then announced that he didn’t favour systems with two out-and-out strikers, instead preferring one to drop off into the hole, creating a 4-4-1-1.

With top-quality strikers thin on the ground (a problem exacerbated by Benni McCarthy’s exclusion from the World Cup squad), Perreira now seems intent on fielding an attacking midfielder (rather than a forward) in the hole, with that player effectively forms a band of three with the wingers. And voila, we have a 4-2-3-1.

Another feature of South Africa under Pereira has been his insistence that the full-backs get forward and join the attack – and, on a related note, that the wingers come inside towards the goal, rather than going down the line. In a tactically conservative country, telling his two central midfielders to focus on defending whilst getting his full-backs to attack seems perverse, but South Africa’s improvement since Pereira started his second spell as manager is clear.

The first XI

Slightly less clear is the actual composition of the side. Captain Aaron Mokoena is a sure starter, although has been criticized by supporters for being too slow, and is considered a liability by many. To his right will be the highly-rated Siboniso Gaxa. Bongani Khumalo appears to have become a first-choice centre-back, whilst the main competition is at left-back, where Tsepo Masisela was considered the natural option, but might be overtaken by the small, tidy Lucas Thwala.

Reneilwe Letsholonyane is the most complete of the three central midfielders under consideration. He turned in a man-of-the-match performance in the win over Denmark, providing the assist for the goal, and will have more license to attack than his midfield partner, who will be either Thanduyise Khuboni or Kagiso Dikgacoi – Dikgacoi is a more physical player but less assured on the ball, and so Khuboni looks to have the edge.

Teko Modise plays a classic No 10 role – he is a popular, diminutive playmaker who drifts in and out of games, but provides moments of genuine quality. The same could be said of Steven Pienaar, though he has become a more well-rounded, physical player since his move to the Premiership. South Africa are better stocked on the left than on the right, so Pienaar will play on the right and Siphiwe Tshabalala, yet another small player, will come in on the on the left.

Katlego Mphela will be the lone striker – he makes intelligent runs in behind the defence, from between centre-back and full-back, and has an impressive international goalscoring record of 15 goals in 31 games, including two good goals against Spain in last year’s Confederations Cup.

Conclusion

South Africa are not as weak as some are making out, and should be able to compete with their three group A opponents.

There is a lack of quality throughout the side, however. There’s also relatively little top-level experience, with 16 out of the 23 players based in their home country.

Home support should mean they aren’t embarrassed, but a first round exit is likely.

13 Responses to “ South Africa will need home support – and luck ”

BaFANa on June 9, 2010 at 7:22 pm

I am a huge fan of your site ZM, I come on a few times a day praying for a new article to devour!
I would like to expand a little on this article as a proud South African.
He first wanted to employ a 4-2-2-2 similar to Brazil in 2006, but due to the type of plyers we have (and the dropping of McCarthy) the last few games has seen a successful shift to the 4-2-3-1 as shown above.

You are correct in saying that the public are not huge fans of Mokoena…if he wasn’t a good captain it is unlikely that he would make the team. He tends to commit fouls in dangerous areas, and it was from one that Dani Alves scored the free kick to beat us at the Confed Cup. Gaxa is a solid right back in the local league, but an interesting choice considering the amount of attacking expected of a fullback in this system. He is just not that good going forward. Bryce Moon (Panathinaikos/PAOK) is considered by many to be the best for this position because of his pace and natural attacking ability, but was dropped from the final squad. On the other flank Masilela is one of our few world class players, and a huge favourite. A prodigy, he made his international debut before his league debut! He is excellent going forward and defending. Thwala will only get a look in if Masilela is injured, as he often is. Thwala is more comfortable in central defence, where he plays for his club side. He is solid defensively, but slow and not comfortable going forward.

Dikgacoi looks to be winning the race for a place ahead of Khuboni. He has not impressed, but he is getting more game time recently, and seems to be the choice because of his experience and potential and because of Khuboni’s inexperience (he only made his debut in January, and was well-known before this season).

Further forward, Parreira has chosen ball players who typify South African football. Lots of short passes, lots of movement, lots of skill, unfortunately not always productive. Think of the criticisms levelled at Arsenal, and multiply by 10. However, Pienaar is excellent and in great form, and Tshabalala and Teko frustrating and talented in equal measure. Bafana will hold on to the ball well, but struggle to make chances. They play very narrowly, and swop positions constantly, but to be more accurate Pienaar will be in middle of the band of three and Teko on the right.

Overall, this is such a tight group to call, but I am confident that it is possible to qualify from the group. The atmosphere is going to intense for the first game against Mexico, and the Mexicans and referee are going to be under immense pressure. South African teams in any sport tend to do well in front of our home crowd. A win there, and then a draw or two draws in the last two games to see us through. Hopefully France lose their first two games and have zero confidence, or win their first two and play without wanting to risk injury or fatigue in the last group game.

We can dream!

hector on June 9, 2010 at 7:36 pm

how bout sibaya, the starting DM for rubin kazan if im not wrong?

Mark on June 9, 2010 at 8:01 pm

I believe that North Korea are the lowest ranked team in the competition, at 105.

I’d just like to point out Aaron Mokoena is a fantastic player in my opinion, and a fantastic leader.

With Pienaar, Modise and Tshabalala creating, we WILL create chances… it’s just up to Mphela to finish them off. I think Bafana Bafana’s prospects are very good.

BaFANa on June 10, 2010 at 9:45 am

Hector: Sibaya has yet to feature in any warm-up games. He is a mentally strong, tactically astute and experienced leader but is also slow and a poor passer. IIRC Parreira dropped him from his Nations Cup squad the last time he was in charge, so perhaps also doesn’t rate him very highly. He tends to drop too deep onto the defence, forcing them deeper and deeper, and if he then receives the ball from them it is a wasted pass, as the ball would only move forward a few metres and he is not a good passer of the ball, so will be very conservative and only pass it forward a few metres (if forward at all) himself. The possible way to use him would be as a ‘3rd centre back’ in the way Barca use Busquets/Toure, or Brazil use Gilberto Silva. However, he is not in the class of these players and his lack of pace can be exploited by a speedy, alert forward if he has no cover behind him.

Bafana_Fan: I do not think that Mokoena is a bad player, he would still make my squad, but my first choice pairing based on experience, ability and characteristics would be Nasief Morris and Sangweni/Booth. I don’t think that Mokoena or Khumalo are good enough at passing the ball out from defence (neither is Booth). This can put us in difficulty against the best sides: defenders who struggle to bring the ball forward (with the exception of Masilela); and in front of them perhaps one of an off-form Dikgacoi, an inexperienced and extremely one-footed Khuboni, a past it Sibaya, and a just not good enough Davids.

Bafana_Fan on June 10, 2010 at 10:41 am

I hear what you’re saying, but I think some people are underestimating Mokoena. He’s a very, very good player, with European experience and over 100 national caps. He’ll be invaluable to us in the World Cup.

As for the rest of the centre backs, I generally agree with you. Booth especially – he’s a no-nonsense defender with good aerial ability, but he’s far too poor in possession. I’m a big Khumalo fan; I think he’s a very good player with a big future. Morris is a good defender, but he’s not in the squad for reasons other than performances, as you know. Sangweni looks strong, but Parreira hasn’t seemed keen on starting him recently.

With regards to central midfield, I think we’re all right. Granted, Dikgacoi is off-form, and that’s because he didn’t get much playing time at Fulham. He’s played a few friendlies now, so hopefully that’ll be enough to clear the cobwebs. Khuboni has impressed lately, but as you say, he’s extremely inexperienced (and therefore I’d play Dikgacoi instead). Letsholonyane is looking really good at the moment too. Sibaya seems to be a bit out of favour, and it doesn’t seem likely he’ll start. Davids is, as you said, simply not good enough.

Our strength is in attacking midfield. Pienaar, Modise and Tshabalala need to perform.

NiWa on June 10, 2010 at 2:38 pm

Germany’s major football magazine basically came to the exact same conclusions as you had in your article.

They do predict Dikgacoi to start instead of Khuboni though.

Lucas Bertu on June 11, 2010 at 2:06 am

A small nitpick here, the correct name is Carlos Alberto PARREIRA.

Great series, I am coming back to read the write-ups before each and every match during the World Cup.

MajesaRSA on June 11, 2010 at 9:28 am

What excite me the most is that Letsholonya is in the starting 11, Bafana Bafana suffered a lot out of the absence of a box to box player. Letsholonyane is very good both offensivly & defensively as compared to Sibaya & Dikgacoi.

The other crucial thing is Pienaar should be played as a wide instead of a central role, because he was not at the 2 camps so he does know the team intimate enough to hold it together. Modise is far more suiteble for this job, cause he has better passing accuracy & passes more(check the confed cup stats). Pienaar likes to run with the ball a lot, which is totall unnecessary when you have 4 players arround you to receive the ball. The other reason for Modise to play central is because everytime he is curting in from the right, he is always forced to shoot with his weeker left foot & it will bring more value to the teams if he is put in role whe he will oftern shoot with his right foot.

As far as Mokoena is concerned, he constently let us down, 70% of the time when an opponent finds a goal scoring chance it is normaly created by him, but I have made peace with the fact that he will always be captain.

kuya on June 11, 2010 at 4:42 pm

do you forgive him (Mokoena) for not playing offside before Mexico’s equaliser happen?

ZM, Great post but their coach’s name is PArreira and not PErreira, ok? Speaking of his experience, he was also the assistant coach of Zagallo on the 1970 World Cup. He was actually world champion for the first time 40 years ago!