The Libyan Civil War*: Critical Views Jihad in the service of McWorld.
* The Libyan Regime-Change Campaign and Naqba of 2011 was never a "civil war" (early and poor name choice) and is no longer the sole subject of this site (see here)

Warning

Warning: This site contains images and graphic descriptions of extreme violence and/or its effects. It's not as bad as it could be, but is meant to be shocking. Readers should be 18+ or a mature 17 or so. There is also some foul language occasionally, and potential for general upsetting of comforting conventional wisdom. Please view with discretion.

Friday, May 27, 2011

Libyan War Damages the Global Economy

As I expected (to the extent I was wrong, it was because I underestimated how bad it would be), the intervention in Libya increasingly seems to create a worst case scenario where Qadaffi remains in control over western Libya while jihadist rebels are in control over eastern Libya and where the two sides continue to fight in an endless civil war.

In addition to being clueless about the nature of the rebels, the axis of Obama, Cameron and Sarkozy naively thought that they could destroy the Qadaffi regime through air raids alone. Yet as the Qadaffi forces have begun to disguise themselves to look like the rebels, it becomes exceedingly difficult for bombers to bomb them without risking to bomb the rebels. (something that they have already mistakingly done).

This means that the Libyan civil war, which would likely have ended two weeks ago without the intervention, could go on for a very long time. This means that oil prices will remain high, something that will benefit a few oil exporting countries, but greatly damage oil importers and damage the world economy as a whole.

With oil (WTI) reaching $108 today, it is about 30% higher than when the civil war started in mid-February. While other factors like QE2 could have contributed to this continued increase, other factors such as the disaster in Japan have counteracted the increase, so it is not far fetched to attribute almost the entire increase to the Libyan civil war.

A short-term spike would have only created limited damage to the world economy, but the longer this persists the worse will the global economy be damaged. The half-measure policy pursued by the Obama-Cameron-Sarkozy axis has already prolonged it by two weeks. While it can't be ruled out that somehow the civil war will be quickly ended, it looks increasingly likely to be prolonged, to the detriment of the global economy.

- The Tripoli Massacres {masterlist} - probably over 1,200 victims revealed so far. Several grisly crime scenes across loyalist Tripoli, all tallied to my ability at the main link, many expanded in posts linked there.

- Sub-post: Abu Salim Trauma "Hospital"Of special importance among these is this bloody and "mysterious" episode. At least 75 victims (perhaps 200 or more).

- Sub-post: The Khamis Brigade Shed Massacre (the one with 53 charred skeletons). Slower to come into focus, this one is shaping up as a sickening complex of barbarity and deceit. 106 victims now official, 51 survivors, perhaps about 150 or more really dead.

- The Sirte Massacres {masterlist} - At least 300 acknowledged so far, and a mass grave with well over 400... Numerous brazen mass-executions, torture, burning, mutilation, occurring in areas the rebels controlled.