Tropical Depression OCTAVE (Text)

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION OCTAVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152013
200 AM PDT TUE OCT 15 2013
MICROWAVE DATA REVEAL THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS BECOME DETACHED
FROM THE CONVECTION. IN FACT...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM MEXICO
INDICATE THAT CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION HAS SLOWED DOWN AND IS STILL
LOCATED NEAR THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA WHILE
SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER MAINLAND
MEXICO. THE STRONG WIND SHEAR AND THE INTERACTION WITH THE TERRAIN
WILL RESULT IN ADDITIONAL WEAKENING. THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO
DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY AND DISSIPATE BY
WEDNESDAY.
THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 025 DEGREES AT 4 KNOTS.
GIVEN THAT THE DEPRESSION HAS BECOME A SHALLOW SYSTEM...LITTLE
MOTION OR PERHAPS A NORTHEASTWARD DRIFT IS ANTICIPATED UNTIL
DISSIPATION.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 15/0900Z 25.5N 112.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 15/1800Z 26.0N 111.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 16/0600Z 26.5N 111.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 16/1800Z...DISSIPATED
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FORECASTER AVILA
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