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The long awaited analysis of how health reform would affect people’s insurance premiums is out, and it looks OK for most of us, and outstanding for less-wealthy people who have struggled to buy insurance on the individual market.

Under the Senate bill, the Congressional Budget Office reports, those who buy insurance on the individual market will likely see a price increase. But, government subsidies will cover an average of two-thirds of that premium for all but the top 43 percent of consumers. So, CBO says, this is the upshot:

“The amount that subsidized enrollees would pay for nongroup coverage would be roughly 56 percent to 59 percent lower, on average, than the nongroup premiums charged under current law.”

Sen. Harry Reid, D-Nev. / AP

What about those of us who get insurance through our job – through large-group policies? We will likely see no change, or a slight reduction in cost, as younger, healtheir people who have been going bare pick up coverage.

In the small group market, which is defined in this analysis as consisting of employers with 50 or fewer workers, CBO and JCT estimate that the change in the average premium per person resulting from the legislation could range from an increase of 1 percent to a reduction of 2 percent in 2016 (relative to current law).
In the large group market, which is defined here as consisting of employers with more than 50 workers, the legislation would yield an average premium per person that is zero to 3 percent lower in 2016 (relative to current law).

So it looks like the one group that will take a hit are people who buy insurance on the individual market whose income is too high to qualify for subsidies.
Here’s the New York Times’ take on the same report.