UN official says North Koreans agree on importance of avoiding war

UN political affairs chief Jeffrey Feltman said on Tuesday that senior North Korean officials told him it was important to prevent war but they did not commit to talks.

Feltmen met with North Korean Foreign Minister Ri Yong Ho and Vice Minister Pak Myong Guk during a four-day visit to Pyongyang. It was the highest level UN visit to North Korea since 2011.

“Time will tell what was the impact of our discussions, but I think we have left the door ajar and I fervently hope that the door to a negotiated solution will now be opened wide,” Feltmen said after a closed door briefing at the UN Security Council.

“They listened seriously to our arguments … They did not offer any type of commitment to us at that point,” said Feltman. “They agreed it was important to prevent war… How we do that was the topic of 15-plus hours of discussions.”

The former US diplomat said the secretive state needed time to “digest and consider” and that he believed Ri would brief North Korean leader Kim Jong Un.

ICBM threat and North Korea’s overall military strength

Major achievement

In early June 2017, North Korea test-launched an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) for the first time. Testing an ICBM marked a major military achievement for Pyongyang and a serious escalation of tensions with the United States and its allies in the region, particularly South Korea and Japan.

ICBM threat and North Korea’s overall military strength

Trouble with warheads

At the time, defense experts said the ICBM could reach as far as the US states of Alaska and Hawaii. However, it was unclear if North Korea can field an ICBM capable of carrying a nuclear warhead on its cone that could survive reentry into the Earth’s atmosphere. North Korean state media claimed the ICBM was capable of carrying a “large, heavy nuclear warhead” to any part of the United States.

ICBM threat and North Korea’s overall military strength

Pyongyang’s nuclear tests – six times and counting

The ICBM is believed to be a step forward in the North’s nuclear program. Despite pressure from the international community, Pyongyang has made no secret of its nuclear ambitions. Alongside its ritual ballistic missile tests, North Korea has conducted nuclear tests on at least six occasions, including one in September 2017.

ICBM threat and North Korea’s overall military strength

US running out of patience?

Responding to the first ICBM test with a show of force, the US and South Korean troops on conducted “deep strike” precision missile drills using Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS) and the Republic of Korea’s Hyunmoo Missile II. In April, the US sent its Carl Vinson aircraft carrier towards the Korean Peninsula, saying it was taking prudent measures against the North.

ICBM threat and North Korea’s overall military strength

Testing the boundaries

Ignoring international condemnation, Pyongyang test-launched another rocket on July 28, 2017, just weeks after its first ICBM test. In both of the tests, North Korea used Hwasong-14 missile, but the second one reached a higher altitude and traveled a larger distance than the first one, according to the state media.

ICBM threat and North Korea’s overall military strength

Whole of US within range?

Pyongyang conducted its third test November 29, using a newly developed Hwasong-15 missile. US, Japanese and South Korean officials said it rose to about 4,500 km (2,800 miles) and flew 960 kilometers (600 miles) over about 50 minutes before landing in Japan’s exclusive economic zone off the country’s coast.

ICBM threat and North Korea’s overall military strength

One of the world’s largest militaries

Apart from a developing missile and nuclear program, North Korea has a powerful army with 700,000 active troops and another 4.5 million in the reserves. It can call upon almost a quarter of its population to serve in the army at any given time. The North’s bloated army is believed to outnumber its southern neighbor’s by two-to-one.

ICBM threat and North Korea’s overall military strength

Vast capabilities

According to the 2017 Global Firepower Index, the North has, as part of a far-reaching arsenal, 458 fighter aircraft, 5,025 combat tanks, 76 submarines, and 5,200,000 total military personnel. The picture above from 2013 shows leader Kim Jong Un ordering strategic rocket forces to be on standby to strike US and South Korean targets at any time.

ICBM threat and North Korea’s overall military strength

Enemies all around

Alongside the United States, Pyongyang views its neighbors South Korea and Japan as its two other main enemies. North Korea has used US military exercises in the region as means of galvanizing its people, claiming that the exercises are dress rehearsals for an impending invasion.

ICBM threat and North Korea’s overall military strength

Huge, colorful demonstrations of military might

Every year, hundreds of thousands of soldiers and citizens roll through the streets of the capital Pyongyang to take part in the North’s military parades. Preparations for the rallies often begin months in advance, and the parades usually mark important anniversaries linked with the Communist Party or Kim Jong Un’s family.

Feltman said he requested North Korea consider “talks about talks” and possibly open up “technical channels of communication, such as the military-to-military hotline, to reduce risks, to signal intentions, to prevent misunderstandings and manage any crisis.”

Tillerson drops preconditions for talks

In an apparent reversal of policy, US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson said Tuesday that the United States was willing to engage in talks with North Korea without preconditions.

“We are ready to talk anytime North Korea would like to talk. And we are ready to have the first meeting without preconditions,” Tillerson said at the Atlantic Council think tank in Washington.

The United States’ previous positon was that North Korea would have to come to the negotiating table ready to give up on its nuclear and ballistic missile programs.

“Let’s just meet and we can talk about the weather if you want to. We can talk about whether it’s a square table or a round table if that’s what you are excited about,” Tillerson said. “But can we at least sit down and see each other face to face and then we can begin to lay out a map, a road map, of what we might be willing to work towards.”

However, he said that North Korea would need to halt nuclear and ballistic missile testing for a period before talks begin. The policy has the support of President Donald Trump, he added.

Trump’s messages

While the United States’ objective remains a denuclearized Korean peninsula, Tillerson said it was “not realistic to say we’re only going to talk if you come to the table ready to give up your program. They’ve too much invested in it. The president is very realistic about that as well.”

Trump has sent mixed messages on North Korean strategy and previously suggested the time for “strategic patience” is over.

In October, he said Tillerson was “wasting his time” attempting diplomacy with North Korea, which is under a series of UN sanctions for its weapons of mass destruction programs.

At the same time, Trump has pressed China to take a harder line against its neighbor and worked to expand the bite of UN sanctions.