I was there looking for you…We made you night very uncomfortable and that was pleasing to me…can’t wait for you “game analysis” and excuses for Stanford!

GOOD JOB COUGS!!…EXCEPT FOR 2 PLAYS!!

]]>By: StanTheManhttp://blogs.mercurynews.com/collegesports/2012/10/25/pac-12-football-picks-of-the-week-can-we-get-a-little-drama-around-here-sheesh/comment-page-1/#comment-147757
Sun, 28 Oct 2012 05:48:17 +0000http://blogs.mercurynews.com/collegesports/?p=28060#comment-147757Cal’s HC shall now be referred to as Adios Tedfraud 3-9 with five losses in a row to end the season. This gutless team has nothing left to play for

As for Stanford, I said they wouldn’t get over 30 and that may be true next week IF THAT LAME EXCUSE FOR A QB JOSH NUNES is under center again. WAKE UP DAVID SHAW – NUNES SUCKS

#1 Research ! RESEARCH !! There’s always two sides…at least.
#2 Always shop for the best lines.
#3 Never bet your heart (alone).
#4 Never bet more than you can afford to lose.
#5 Always Research ! RESEARCH !! There’s always two sides…at least.

ASU opened -7 at the Wynn on Sunday afternoon and the line has fallen a half pt at all books since then, to -6.5.

Most on this blog either down-played the injuries to ASU DT Sutton — in the top 5 players in the nation in both Sacks and TFLs; and DE standout Junior Onyeali, in the first 2 series of last week’s game vs Oregon, or they downplayed the inj’s as “insignificant”. i totally disagree, seeing the inj’s as pivotal, based on the fact that Sutton totally disrupted the Duck backfield when he was in, causing a fumble which led directly to the initial Devil 7-0 lead, and on the next Ore. series with Sutton injured, RB K. Barner busted right up the gut through Sutton’s back-up, for a 71 yd score ! (Kudos to the Duck Coaches for the opportunistic play calling.) IMO, right there, Sutton accounted for the equivalent of 14 pts. All else equal, the final would’ve been 29-21, if ASU doesn’t get closer or win outright… but one can reasonably calculate ASU would’ve at least beat the spread for anyone who didn’t get the Oregon -8.

Thus, for me all bets are off, if Sutton and Onyeali don’t play this week. So far, they are questionable.

A) – Last week i recounted the exceptional coaching job Todd Graham has done almost everywhere (Rice, Tulsa, Pitt, ASU) he’s been. Meanwhile Mora is off to a good start but has yet to prove himself as a college coach, which is a different animal than coaching the pros. Edge Graham.
B) – Even after last week’s loss to Oregon, ASU is 1st in the league in Total Defense, in Pass Efficiency D, is 3rd in Scoring D, while only in Run D does UCLA have better stats. Advantage ASU.
C) – UCLA out-rushes ASU, 216.6yds/gm to 188.4yds/gm. Edge UCLA.
D) – Taylor Kelly’s pass efficiency rating is tops in the league at 167.1 to Hundley’s 143.5 which is 4th in the league. Solid advantage to ASU.
E) – The home team in this series has won 5 straight ATP and 4 in a row SU. Lean to ASU.
F) – While ASU’s home field advantage is rated at 4.25 pts, UCLA is coming off a bye, so has had an extra week to prep. Lean to UCLA.
G) – Phil Steele’s Power Ratings : ASU 138, UCLA 135.
H) – ASU has significant inj’s to the DL; UCLA has 3 inj’d WRs. Advantage UCLA (potentially significant if Sutton and Onyeali can’t play).

The line at the Wynn opened Oregon -47.5 and has dropped 1 or 2 pts everywhere.

i would never lay this many pts. The Ducks have been “prohibitive favorites” in almost all their games. That’s why their pt spread record is 3-4. But at the same time who in their right mind would put $$ on the Buffs, when they’re going the way of their cousin salmon, carrier pidgeon, sperm whale, thousands of species extinct, thousands barely eluding extinction. i’m sure Oregon players and even some coaches have their next opponent (USC) like a ubiquitous discarded piece of plastic, clogging their minds. When they get up 30-40 pts on the thundering..ur…whimpering herd, in comes the 2nd and 3rd strings. Oregon can win 61-17 and still not cover.

The line opened USC -8.5 on Sunday at the Wynn and is at -6.5 everywhere now. i don’t quite get the drop in the line unless it’s the neighboring-state-betting-the-
homies-in-Vegas syndrome.

A) – USC dramatically (for those who are looking for drama) outperforms the Cats in Run D, Scoring D, Pass Efficiency D, and Total D.
B) – Barkley’s Pass Efficiency Rating (PER) is 164.1 to Scott’s 140.8. $C WRs Woods and Lee are more explosive than the very good and talented Buckner & Co.
C) – The Cats have inj’s to 9 players of varying significance, including 3OL, 1 TE, 1 WR, 2 DL, 1 LB and 1 S. While $C’s key inj’s are on D, especially DL Devon Kennard.
D) – Phil Steele’s Power Rating : USC 151 Arizona 137.
E) – Troy has won 9 of the last 10 SU, and is 11-3 SU @ Ariz since ’76, BUT ATP Arizona is 2-2 as a Home Dog since 2001. Still, overall, the trojan man is 9-5 @ Tucson since ’76. And if you count every game in the series since ’76,the visiting team is 18-10 ATP.
F) – Meanwhile, i give the coaching edge to Rich Rod (80-51 / 61.1%) over Lane “born with a silver clipboard in his mouth” Kiffen (32-14 / 69.6%).
G) – Arizona has a slight Run O advantage out-gaining $C 196.4 yds/gm to 158.9yds/gm, but their yds per carry are slightly less : 4.8 yds to 5.1.
H) – Arizona’s HF advantage is 4.0, PLUS the men of Troy could be looking ahead to the Oregon game next week.

Prediction : After overcoming a slow start and before getting up to speed, Troy has too much : USC 40 Arizona 27.

The line opened Stan -21 (Note to Tommy Coug, the -21 was at the Wynn Resort in Las Vegas on Sun afternoon about 3 or 4pm). It has moved up immediately and has continued its steadily upward trend ever since, to -24.5/-25 now, friday eve, and seems to be still moving upward. That means most of the $$ is being bet on the Tree.
A) – Mike Leach (86 – 48 / 64.2%) has considerable more experience winning as a head coach than Shaw (16-4 / 80%).
B) – Stanford has major advantages in overall D and in the Run O.
C) – Leach’s offense devalues the run game but despite having good QBs in Tuel and Halliday, and a stable of quality WRs, their PER (117.0) is only on a par with Stanford’s Nunes (118.3). Note – Halliday is INT prone which accounts for most of the low Coug QB passing rating, plus early in the ssn when Tuel was getting the feel of Leach’s Off.
D) – Injuries – no advantage either way.
E) – Excluding the Duke game Stanford’s margin of victory (MOV) has been 3, 7, 6 and 18. while WSU has lost by 24, 1, 25, 13, and 14. If that trend continues i see only 1 or 2 scenarios out of 9/10 where the Card covers. Mostly, it’s Nunes’ / WRs’ / PK struggles that are limiting Tree scoring…Major Lean to WSU.
F) – Stanford is 21-9 SU and 19-11 ATP in the series since ’76. But they are only 7-5 (58.6%) as a Home Fav. — 60% is generally considered the betting threshold for a profitable trend.
G) – Phil Steele’s Power Rating : Stanford 147 WSU 122
H) – Despite Leach having called out the Cougar seniors and causing a minor stir in the football world, he and his players and coaches have an extra week, after a bye last week, to prep for the Card. Beware a Card let down a la the last time the Cougs were in town : Stanford was a -36pt fav and won 38-28, but not in Vegas !

Prediction : Stanford 36 WSU 17
(The other JW, with the pressure off because of an early Tree lead, makes 3 FGs, misses 1 and has a PAT blocked. Nunes has a reasonably efficient game but nothing spectacular enough to ease concerns re Nov 10th and 17th.)

The line opened at Wynn a pick, and the $$ has come in mostly on the Utah side moving the line up to -1.5 (and as high -2 in Reno), but has dropped to -1 at most books in Vegas.

A) – Tedford (82-53 / 60.7%) and Whittingham (67-30 / 69.1%) are both quality coaches despite this yr’s records and despite the bearly rational expectations of Oskie losers…ur…lovers…on this blog (poor fools ! Hahaha.) Whittingham and Ute faithful are finding the quality of P12 competition to be a more daunting obstacle than they expected. Slight advantage Cal.
B) – Utah has the edge in Total D, Run D, and a slight edge in Scoring D, while Cal has an advantage in Pass Effieciency D.
C) – Cal has the better Run O, in both Yds/Carry and Yds/Game. Surprisingly Maynard has a slight edge in PER over the 3-headed Ute QB (J. Wynn, J. Hays, T. Wilson).
E) – Cal has had major injuries espeicially at LB and probs on both lines. Utah has had no such probs. Major advantage to Utah.
F) – Phil Steele’s Power Rating : Cal 134 Utah 131
G) – Cal won last yr in Bezerkeley 34-10. i expect Whitt. and his team to be up and seeking redemption this yr. Based on Cal’s performance in the mile high atmosphere of Colorado last yr (a 36-33 OT win, but as a -6.5 pt fav it was a loss ATP) and with the fans’ impatience with Tedsel running high, echoing loudly, being an increasing distraction, no doubt for coaches and players; look for the Cal on-field performance to unravel further and further :

The line opened on Sunday at OSU – 5, was bet down to -4 initially and is down to -3.5 at most books now. That usually means the extra $$ is coming in on Wash. Go figure ! Where the financial confidence in the Dawg comes from, i don’t know.

A) – Mike Riley (78-63 / 55.3%) doesn’t have the gaudy record some coaches have, nor does he get the big name recruits year in and year out, and yet he manages to win with what he’s got, more often than not. Sark (22-23 / 48.9%) has done a very admirable job turning the Husky program around, and he’ll be above .500 by the end of the season. But for now Riley gets the coaching nod.
B) – The Dam Beaver has a major advantage in every D category, and working against Washington’s patchwork O line, should have another good day thwarting and tarnishing the purple and gold. OSU is 1st in the league in scoring D at 16.5/gm while Wash is 9th at 29.6. In Run D OSU is 2nd at 80.8 yds/gm and Wash is last at 196.0 yds/gm. The disparity is similar in Pass Efficiency D : OSU 3rd (allowing 7 TDs vs 12 INTs, while Wash is 9th allowing 12 TDs vs 7 INTs)
C) – Overall, Wash has a slight advantage in Run Off.
D) – The Riley-coached Beav is 3-0 vs Wash as a Visiting Favorite.
E) – Inj’s have been significant on Wash’s OL and to their LB corps, while on the OSU side, QB Mannion returns from an injury that threatened to sideline him for the season. His return should elevate the team’s confidence considerably as he is, imo, THE BEST QB in the league. A wrist inj to all star CB Poyer is a major concern. His status is “questionable”.
F) – Phil Steele Power Rating : OSU 146 Washington 128

Prediction : OSU 31 Washington 13

]]>By: TommyCoughttp://blogs.mercurynews.com/collegesports/2012/10/25/pac-12-football-picks-of-the-week-can-we-get-a-little-drama-around-here-sheesh/comment-page-1/#comment-147538
Fri, 26 Oct 2012 23:41:43 +0000http://blogs.mercurynews.com/collegesports/?p=28060#comment-147538StanTheMan and Jon Wilner…I’ll take the 24.5 or 21 that Jon shows…I still don’t know where that came from…the lowest I saw was 21.5…but, JW always has his sources and he’s always right!!

NO…our defense isn’t that bad (as Arizona)…but, our offense has been lacking horribly…if we stuff the Stanford run a little bit, force Nunes to pass and can move the ball a little more and perform better in the red zone…WAZZU can certainly beat the spread and even make it an “unhappy” day on a sunny Saturday afternoon at the FARM!!

GO COUGS!!

]]>By: StanTheManhttp://blogs.mercurynews.com/collegesports/2012/10/25/pac-12-football-picks-of-the-week-can-we-get-a-little-drama-around-here-sheesh/comment-page-1/#comment-147479
Fri, 26 Oct 2012 16:34:02 +0000http://blogs.mercurynews.com/collegesports/?p=28060#comment-147479As long as Nunes is taking snaps and Williamson is kicking FGs, Stanford is not likely to be over 30. Arizona was a gross aberration, although WSU’s defense might be just as bad.
]]>By: TommyCoughttp://blogs.mercurynews.com/collegesports/2012/10/25/pac-12-football-picks-of-the-week-can-we-get-a-little-drama-around-here-sheesh/comment-page-1/#comment-147390
Fri, 26 Oct 2012 03:40:22 +0000http://blogs.mercurynews.com/collegesports/?p=28060#comment-147390I just “love you” Jon W.! Now, even I wonder if my Cougs will even show up?

Well,…I’M HERE…as I said I would be…and I will attend the game…and…I HOPE WE RUIN YOUR DAY, JONNIE BOY!!

]]>By: Bootleggerhttp://blogs.mercurynews.com/collegesports/2012/10/25/pac-12-football-picks-of-the-week-can-we-get-a-little-drama-around-here-sheesh/comment-page-1/#comment-147383
Fri, 26 Oct 2012 02:43:24 +0000http://blogs.mercurynews.com/collegesports/?p=28060#comment-147383Stanford is certainly capable of scoring more than enough to cover; WSU is just struggling. I think the line reflects uncertainty about Stanford’s enthusiasm. After a big emotional victory over Kal, Stanford could certainly come out flat. But even a flat Stanford team at home on a sunny afternoon should be sufficient to beat WSU easily.
]]>By: Pluto99http://blogs.mercurynews.com/collegesports/2012/10/25/pac-12-football-picks-of-the-week-can-we-get-a-little-drama-around-here-sheesh/comment-page-1/#comment-147321
Thu, 25 Oct 2012 21:16:39 +0000http://blogs.mercurynews.com/collegesports/?p=28060#comment-147321Drama? We don’t need to stinkin’ drama. I hope the game is over mid way through the 2nd quarter. Maybe if the defense can run up the score, we’ll get to see a different QB in mop up time…
]]>By: Chuckhttp://blogs.mercurynews.com/collegesports/2012/10/25/pac-12-football-picks-of-the-week-can-we-get-a-little-drama-around-here-sheesh/comment-page-1/#comment-147282
Thu, 25 Oct 2012 18:51:28 +0000http://blogs.mercurynews.com/collegesports/?p=28060#comment-147282Don’t see why Jon suddenly has so much love for Stanford. So they crushed a pathetic Cal team? So what. They won’t score enough to cover..
]]>By: 206 Cardinalhttp://blogs.mercurynews.com/collegesports/2012/10/25/pac-12-football-picks-of-the-week-can-we-get-a-little-drama-around-here-sheesh/comment-page-1/#comment-147270
Thu, 25 Oct 2012 17:55:20 +0000http://blogs.mercurynews.com/collegesports/?p=28060#comment-147270Arizona to cover (at least). They look better every week.

WSU to cover. Feels like 30-17 Stanford to me. We seem less comfortable against spread offenses; Wazzu will score (not as much as Arizona, but some). Hope I’m wrong and the offense really hits its stride.