ISIS' message might be failing with the people it most needs to attract

ISIS' message might be failing where the group is pushing it most
— the Middle East.

The terrorist group (which is also known as the Islamic State,
ISIL, or Daesh) is seeing an increase in opposition among young
Arabs in 16 Middle Eastern countries, according to a new survey.

In a survey of 3,500 Arabs in the Middle East aged 18 to 24,
the vast majority said they're concerned about the rise of ISIS,
do not support the group's ideology, and think the group will
ultimately fail.

That represents an increase compared to previous years' surveys —
while 19% of those surveyed in 2015 said they might support ISIS
if the group wasn't so violent, that figure dropped to 13%
in 2016.

And a rising number of youth see ISIS as the biggest problem
confronting the region. In 2015, 37% of those surveyed said ISIS
was the biggest obstacle the region faced, compared with 50%
in 2016.

The report accompanying the survey noted that ISIS has
"failed to win the support of those it hoped would gravitate
towards the idea of Islamic State or caliphate."

This seems to be an indication that ISIS' propaganda — which is
central to its strategy and message of "remaining and expanding"
— might not be potent enough to build the popular support the
group would likely need to sustain its self-declared "caliphate,"
the swath of territory the group controls in Iraq and Syria.

The survey found that what motivates many young people to join
terrorist groups like ISIS is financial opportunity — the group
is known to pay its fighters higher salaries than many of them
could earn elsewhere — rather than support for the group's
mission or an attraction to its extremist ideology.

When asked why some young people might be attracted to ISIS,
the largest share of respondents said they had no idea. The
next-largest group of respondents cited a lack of job
opportunity:

ASDA'A Burson-Marsteller Arab Youth Survey
2016

Fewer than half of Arab youth feel confident in their job
prospects, according to the report. This sense of hopelessness
could sway young people to ISIS, which specifically targets
disadvantaged youth and provides food and housing to the family
members of fighters who come to the "caliphate."

ISIS likely knows that the money it offers is a major lure for
disadvantaged people in the Middle East. The group is known to
exploit existing tensions within the territory it controls in an
effort to gain the support of the population.

Though religion remains a top reason why people join ISIS,
the group might see a significant decline in support if it were
to remove the economic incentives for joining.

These survey results come amid a rising chorus of voices exposing
the realities of living under ISIS rule. Defectors from the group
have spoken out about how the "caliphate" isn't what it seems.
Though ISIS pushes out propaganda that depicts harmony and
prosperity within its territory, the situation on the ground is
much different, according to defectors and those who have lived
in areas under ISIS control.

One defector, whose nom de guerre is Abu Ali,
recently told The Guardian that the corruption, torture, and
brutality he witnesses while he was a member of the group was
enough to make him decide to risk his life to flee.