Saturday, September 24, 2011

Forget Gold—What Matters Is Copper

People are freaking out that gold has fallen to $1,650, from its lofty highs above $1,800—they are freaking out something awful. “Gold has fallen 10%! The world is coming to an end!!!” I myself took a shellacking in gold—

—but copper is what has me worried.

Copper fell from $4.20 to $3.25—close to 25%—in about three weeks. Most of that tumble has happened in the last ten days, and what’s worrisome is that, as I write these words over the weekend, there is every indication that copper will continue its free fall come Monday.

From the numbers that I’m seeing—and from the historical fact that copper tends to fall roughly 40% from peak to trough during an American recession—there is every indication that copper could reach $2.67 in short order. And even bottom out below that—say at $2.20—before stabilizing around the $2.67 level.

But we’ll see. The price of copper is not the point of this discussion. The point of this discussion is what the price of copper means.

What it means for monetary policy.

We all know the old saying: “Copper is the only commodity with a Ph.D. in economics”, or words to the effect.

The ongoing price collapse of copper signals that the markets have collectively decided that there is going to be no resurgence of the global economies—at least not for the next 9 to 18 months. Up until now, the economic data that has been coming out over the last couple of weeks seemed to indicate that there’s going to be a double-dip—but in my mind, this fall in the price of copper confirms this notion that the general economy is going down.

And remember: Market sentiment can not only be a predictor of future economic performance, but its determinant. If today the markets feel that the economy is going to suck tomorrow, often that very sentiment is what makes the economy suck canal water.

So if copper is falling like a mo-fo—which both signals and convinces the market that the economy is gonna suck—what does this mean for monetary policy?

Prima facie, the fall in the price of copper is deflationary: Less demand means that the prices fall—meaning the dollar acquires purchasing power.

What does it mean for monetary policy that copper has fallen so low?

It means that Bernanke will carry out more “non-traditional” Federal Reserve stimulus.

Ben Bernanke is famous for being terrified of deflation—and to his particular mindset, this is a reasonable fear. More to the point, Bernanke’s deflation-phobia actually matters—because after all, he is the Chairman of the Federal Reserve. He controls U.S. monetary policy.

Deflation is supposed to be bad because it shrinks an economy. (Personally, I am more afraid of inflation than deflation: The latter is self-correcting, while the former spirals out of control and into social chaos. But that’s for some other post.)

According to the deflationary world view, falling prices oblige producers to cut back on production—which means firing workers. These fired workers—husbanding their resources during their unemployment—spend less, further contracting demand, thus putting more downward pressure on prices, forcing more producers to cut back and fire even more workers, who thus spend less—

—you get the picture: A “deflationary death spiral”, in the Deflationistas’ parlance.

This is Bernanke’s fear—and he will do anything to alleviate it. Notice: It’s not that Bernanke will do anything to alleviate deflation—he will do anything to alleviate his fear of deflation.

As copper prices continue to tumble, signaling further economic contraction, there is no question in my mind that Ben Bernanke and his Fools of the Fed will view this as evidence of looming dollar deflation.

They will do everything to stop this looming deflation. But since the “traditional” Federal Reserve tools have been used up—that is, the Fed has its rate at zero, and for all intents and purposes all of its liquidity windows open—Bernanke will have no choice but to announce some new “non-traditional” liquidity injection scheme shortly.

Thus I expect some Banana Republic money-printing scheme to be announced by the Bernankster before the end of the year—perhaps as early as this coming October. The fall in the price of copper—more than anything else—is what Benny and his Fools will be looking at, to justify this new scheme.

And my bet is, this scheme they announce will be as big—and as controversial—as QE-II.

I am giving my people at The Strategic Planning Group a detailed analysis of what has happened over the past week, and what we can expect to happen in the markets over the coming weeks. You’ll have to pay to play for that.

But insofar as my overall view of the situation is concerned, this is what I think:

Bernanke will drive a schoolbus over small children, in order to prevent his notion of deflation from coming true. This fall in the price of copper is much more relevant to his course of action as Fed Chairman than the fall in the price of gold (which was just a combination of options expiration coming up, and gold positions being sold to cover losses in other asset classes).

This dramatic fall in the price of copper signals that the markets do not believe reactivation is anywhere near eminent—not for at least 9 to 18 months.

To the traditional twin Federal Reserve mandates of price stability and full employment, Bernanke has added a third mission: That of “growing the economy”—whatever it takes, however unorthodox or reckless the measures.

Therefore, it is my estimation that very soon now—end of this year at the latest—we will have QE-infinity—and beyond!

46 comments:

The end game has never been about what the economy is doing. The mish's and the pragcaps can laugh and scorn at what the price of gold is doing to the "inflaionistas" right now, but we are not yet at the end game. Whatever the economy does will be reflected in the price of gold, and copper, and it is going down. But what will ultimately happen to gold, and copper, is from the gov't response to the economy. There is, of course, a chance that the gov't will let the economy deflate. But, as you have said here in this article, there is a much bigger possibility that the fed will turn on the printing presses. And that is the end game and what will ultimately determine the glide path of gold, silver (and copper).

Gold is just returning to the trendline, and from a purely technical perspective, when a parabolic move returns to a trendline, it is generally a signal of future lower prices and a break of the trendline. That's a point against us. But, it doesn't always happen, and if the fed acts as most think they will, the prices of inflation hedges will once again take off.

"I am giving my people at The Strategic Planning Group a detailed analysis of what has happened over the past week, and what we can expect to happen in the markets over the coming weeks. You’ll have to pay to play for that."

It seems that a paid service like "The Strategic Planning Group" would've had a detailed of analysis of what was GOING to happen, not what has ALREADY happened. I'd be far more impressed had you done so, but presumably if you had, you'd have mentioned it.

But if you didn't predict what happened this week, why should we believe that you'll be any more clairvoyant in the coming weeks? And while we're on the subject, how is that USD nosedive prediction working out for you?

Sorry, Mr. Lira, I enjoy your thought-provoking blog posts, but I shant be paying you as a "strategic planner". The fact is the system is too opaque to be able to predict much of anything important with any accuracy. They have too much power and control, and they wield it too erratically. All you can do is look at history as a guide, and buckle down for the long haul.

Hi Gonzalo, I am from Chile too, been a reader of you for a couple months now and I 've been telling some people here, if there is some one who understand and know what he is talking about is Gonzalo because of Chile's recent history. I grew up in the 70's and I knew something big was coming to the US, some kind of 1929 crisis. Anyways, thank you for your insight and work, Iam thinking about paying for your subscription...specially now with the silver crash, geees!, What is your opinion on silver at this point?, gracias por todo y si alguna vez vienes por la gran manzana, cualquier cosa que necesites seria un placer ayudar, saludos para Chile!

The next FOMC meeting is for October 12th, we'll get to see QE3 in one form or another being announced... Gold & Silver probably have a little more correction in store before then.... after that, it's off to the races for the precious metals...

Deflation of prices is good. Look at how much computer equipment has fallen in price, while the products have improved immensely.

Deflation of money supply occurs if banks go under or if central banks start burning money. The Fed has allowed small US banks to fail on a regular basis, but one of the Fed's objectives is not to allow big banks to fail.

So, I don't think we'll see deflation of money supply in this decade, if ever.

As for the price of tea in China: remember the 70s: stagflation. It could happen again, only worse: more inflation of price, more unemployment, and more shrinking of the economy.

QE3 is here, already. It simply goes by the name of Operation Twist. What, you doubt me? Consider, if you will, how Zimbabwe Ben panicked the market (accidentally, of course) with his outlook for further economic turbulence, thus driving funds into the short end of the bond market, to the tune of 400 billion or so (yes, the short end pays dogshit interest, but it certainly beats a massive haircut in the equity markets). He then takes said funds and uses them to flatten the long end, and there you have it. 400 billion in new money which didn't have to be printed out of thin air, with all of the attendant political bitching that printing would entail, and further dilution of the monetary base. Neat, huh? And expect a boatload more of QE (by other names, of course), since Ben likes his job, and the only way Ben will keep his job is if Obummer keeps his, and the only way Obummer keeps his is if Ben opens the spigots big time so that we're all floating away on a sea of prosperity as election 2012 approaches (Ben and Obummer; one hand washing the other).

Or maybe it was artificially high because Chase bank has been hording copper:As in 390 metric tons in one warehouse in Gary Indiana:http://www.nwitimes.com/news/local/lake/hammond/article_d25c67fe-8758-5c13-9206-abc65ca843ab.html

GL - I always like your articles. But there is a flaw in the argument that the Bernank can just print.

The Fed is constrained by Congress. It can only print what Congress requires in new debt. And even though this is huge, $1.7tn per annum, it is probably less than 10% of what is required to trigger significant inflation. The Fed can only print a limited amount.

What an impressive web page. I do wonder how any one of us would do better than Bernanke when tasked to run an economy that affects so many lives. How do you make sure everyone has a job, that investments always go well, that inflation does not exist? I get a headache just thinking about it. How do you manage the financial fortunes of 300 million people in an effective and responsible manner? I doubt anyone reading the main article on this page knows or they would be doing it now. I am a carpenter who has had to work for Wal mart and clean offices at night to survive while illegals from Mexico have 5 kids each and get food stamps, free housing and free medical care. There are many social injustices that could and should be eliminated and help to ease the federal deficit. Living in America is still pretty good, if you are willing to sacrifice sleep and a little dignity you can live comfortably. Try to think positive everyone.

We are still in a tail-spin caused by over-leverage and excessive credit in the world economy. Copper is a big piece of the puzzle of course.

Chairsatan Bernanke will blame the downturn on the lack of liquidity, but intelligent observers know the true nidus of this debt-fiat infection is insolvency, not a lack of liquidity. We have a bunch of over-leveraged, derivative drunk, CDS swap swindling, insolvent banks. That's the problem.

Instead of allowing a nice, good old default - where competent companies and banks can buy up the defunct and incompetent ones gone bust, we will get rampant money printing to prop up the zombie banks.

Bernanke has therefore picked his poison -hyperinflation. There's no way around it.

Mises said, "There is no means of avoiding a final collapse of a boom brought about by credit expansion. The alternative is only whether the crisis should come sooner as a result of a voluntary abandonment of further credit expansion or later as a final and total catastrophe of the currency system involved."

I don't think it's all coming apart as fast as Mr. Lira, but we are well down the road to fiscal and monetary ruin. Buckle up.

Anonymous above says "I do wonder how any one of us would do better than Bernanke when tasked to run an economy that affects so many lives. How do you make sure everyone has a job, that investments always go well, that inflation does not exist?" but that misses the point! No one can do it at all!. Its been tried in all its flavors by nations from the USSR to GB, but it can't be managed. The good old American way *was* to limit Government to just the essentials, but that is no longer a choice permitted us. We'll just have to try to survive through this and work at cleaning up the mess afterwards.

There are many indicators of economic health and having the price of copper tank is not good. Nor does the Baltic Dry Index being low. If you combine the two, then the world economy is down and is expected to go lower.

I would not, necessarily, interpret these two as indicators of deflation. Certainly, the world’s money supply is not decreasing. The best word to use for today’s circumstances is Stagflation: a persistent bad economy combined with increasing prices. The question is what that stagflation will turn into.

My guess for the outcome for the EURO and most of the world’s currencies is deflation. The EURO is special, because it is likely to fall apart with the European Union. Its members states will go back to their original currencies with a crushing debt which they are likely to default on. The rest of the world’s currencies will decline along with decreasing world trade. I am guessing that Ben Bernanke will fight a deflation, so that means hyperinflation in the US.

From a purely Austrian Economics standpoint, a deflation is the cure for our monetary ills. It resets the markers back to zero, makes paupers out of thieves and washes out the distortions caused by easy money. Unnecessary industries and investments fold and pie in the sky dreams vanish. I would hope this for the US, but I expect the FED to save us from reality. Ben Bernanke will try to kick the can down the road and break his leg.

Much depend on whether Obama or his successor will repeat FDR’s interventions in the economy. If Hoover and FDR had decreased the size of the government and left the economy alone to recover, then the ’29 crash would have been over in a year or two. Instead, those interventionists stretched the bad economy out eight to ten years longer than necessary. Obama would gladly do the same, but will his replacement?

Honestly metals needed a correction including copper. Demand is down on copper. Gold and silver were parabolic and most knew the correction would come sooner or later. People fail to think this stuff thru. PM's were not going to go up forever. Margin calls, investors taking profits, and investors taking profits in PM's to cover their losses is all that happened to PMs. Sometimes it is not TPTB manipulating the markets.

What worries me is historically speaking, this is trending like the 2008 market crash. That is what worries me. I think it may happen once again. Only this time it is going to be bigger.

No one can predict, with accuracy, the future. We can come close. We are grasping at straws when we attempt to do so. There are some absolutes, though. When you find you have overspent and don't have the money to pay it back, then you need to stop overspending, take out a loan and learn your lesson. The trouble is we have an epidemic of mental illness as the inmates are now in charge of the U.S. financial asylum. Common sense, responsibility, making the painful cuts necessary to stabilize the economy have been pitched out the window. And because of reckless behaviour (spending and continuing to print worthless pieces of paper because THEY know there is NO way out and continuing to fund European and other financial institutions with money we don't have) They are deliberately making things worse for American citizens (financially). Why, from my viewpoint, there is a BIG question in my mind as to whether or not this is being done on purpose. It's called Economic Warfare. You don't need a military invasion, just throttle a country's financial heartbeat. Food for thought. My advice: review your own balance sheet and know exactly where you are. Get rid of things you don't need and pare back. Keep a supply of cash or other on hand because you are going to need it. We definitely don't need a QE3. The trouble is Bernanke doesn't care as his ass is on the line. The damage has been done and it doesn't take a financial guru to tell us that we are going to have a very difficult time digging our way out of this, (if we can).

Has anyone come to the harsh realization that one American persons hourly labor is in the giant melting pot with every other person in the world?People are crying JOBS JOBS without the least idea of the fact that corporations are using cheap foreign labor because those job seekers are not going to work in the USA because of our higher standard of living. America get ready to level-out!!!

All the goings on mean is that the "gestation" period for the "New World Order" is coming to an end and the actual "Birth" will be a painful one. The problem is that the attending "Physicians" have no regard whatsoever for the life or health of the "Mother" and will gladly sacrifice her for the ultimate end. What you are witnessing is NOT the result of stupidity or poor planning and execution. Look for the "Crisis" to come to a head next year and O'Shithead to be appointed interim Grand Poohbah or whatever designation they will decide on. Then, over the following 6-12 months they will solidify their position. The aforementioned O'Shithead will emerge as the choice to lead this "Creature." Which is what his only purpose has been all along. Their objective is to reduce America to a Footnote in history. The New World currency will be backed by Copper, which is the ONLY metal abundant enough to serve the purpose. Also, it has the distinction of grudgingly serving in THAT function for a longer period than either Gold OR Silver although in a "Red Haired Stepchild" sort of way and it's origins were more utilitarian. This is why the banks are stockpiling it. And China for that matter. That's how they got China to appear complacent throughout all the turmoil. They were promised a prominant role in the future. Gold will be for transactions between member states. Silver will be the New Copper. Buy Copper! Good Luck.

This is the end of the Age of Materialism...and the forced cessation of our love affair with an endless stream of low-quality, often-useless sh*t will be an extremely ugly process. Hold fast... Godspeed :)

I believe the stagflation scenario for now, but the ultimate end is complete economic, social, and political collapse. Read chapter 3 of the Climax of Rome by Michael Grant. He shows that inflation and inordinate amounts of money spent on useless and endless military adventures brought about the end of Rome. Add to that the present-day lavishing of trillions of dollars on the banksters, and we have a very accurate way to foretell the future of the world economy. The immigrants (aka "barbarians" who were running for their lives) tried in vain to salvage what they could. I don't know if it is too late to salvage our civilization, but I wish Americans and Europeans would become more knowledgeable about the larger historical trends,, so that they could better unnderstand the dangers that lie ahead and be willing to make some sacrifices which lie ahead.For the time being it helps to have a garden. My 3,000 sq. ft. garden produces much of the food we need year-round. It merely requires some gardening knowledge and knowing how to can and freeze for winter consumption. You can have an organic garden very easily. Many countries which produce much of our food still have not outlawed DDT even though it has not been effective against many agricultural pest for more thhann fifty years. Several years ago I traveled through the southern areas of the Sonora and Chihuahua states of Mexico. Many many people there do not have electricity, but there are many ads for pesticides, and the more is better philosophy does not work with nerve poisons. Remember that the insect nervous system is very similar to ours. The only difference is body weight. Pesticides become concentrated in fat and reproductive tissues and when you get enough, you wind up with health problems. A garden is a useful thing whether we have inflation or deflation, because it sharply reduces food expenditures. I not only raise all kinds of vegetables but also grapes and berries. If you say you can't or don't want to do this, you are automatically opting for higher living costs. You also want to avoid community garden projects, because of the risk of pilferage. Toward the end of the Roman Empire there was a back-to-the-land movement. These people were called coloniae, and the modern city of Cologne was the site of one of these communes.

Don't you think that it's ironic that the only voice of reason left in the financial world is the Bundesbank in Germany? The whole of the rest of the established system has descended into a quagmire of quick fixes, printed money, and economic quackery. Even the Tea Party movement in the USA has failed to accomplish any substantial restraints on the chicanery. And why is the Bundesbank holding out alone ... because they of all people remember what conditions were like in Germany after their own economy collapsed at the end of WW2. The whole of the rest of the western banking system believes that this "can be avoided and it won't happen to them". How little we have learned.

"The good old American way *was* to limit Government to just the essentials, but that is no longer a choice permitted us."

No there never was such an America..at least not for the majority. What made old America good was theft...of land from the natives and labor from slave...for centuries! The gubmint was quite helpful for that process with the cavalry (except for Custer) and the Fugitive Slave Law. USA then raped Latin America in the twentieth century and Middle East in the twenty-first century. USA now getting ts comeuppance soon. Nothing left to steal. There never was a capitalist miracle here. It was all kleptocracy.

All good and well when there is the outclause...in BB... to come to the rescue.. as it were.Let me point out that the risk of deflation is very real in the scenario of debt destruction. All we need is for a sovereign default to materialise and the markets will go into such a spin that no amount of QE, whether it is the FED or the ECB, will rescue the financial monetary system.You bravely discount the less worse scenario (deflation) by inviting the Fed reserve chairman to step up to the plate.As we all know these times are unheralded, to rephrase a quote.."history may rhyme...not necessarily repeat".From your blog we can see the pathway to much higher inflation through the necessary actions of the FED, but no discussion of the darker one. Remember the forest and its many pathways.Are you blinded by your absolute certainty that EUR will resolve its problems with an orderly default of the periphery with recapitalisation of the major banks in a timely fashion with acceptance of the EFSF with austerity being driven into the hearts of every Greek/Portugal and Irish citizen without complaint or uprising. After all, the major reason the markets have been stumbling is due to the concern of a sovereign default from EUR. Recession is a must because copper predicts that... (a supply and demand argument )..OR.perhaps there is a reaction to events which pushes artificial prices to levels they should be at (ex speculation) ?

Timing, some say, is important for markets.Note when all the markets started moving in various directions. USD rally, EURO decline, stocks tanking, CRB declining, PM's down....they all moved in tandem....like someone rang the bell. AND the cause.....A GREECE DEFAULT and a possible contagion. Go back and re-read the data. Look at the dates....hmmmmmm..!!!Fear, my friend. FEAR is such a powerful verb.Perhaps more powerful than your subject matter.Did you know that the word FEAR is derived from the GREEK word Phobos.....meaning morbid fear.Damn those Greeks......!!!!How appropriate..."In short, fear is the ability to recognize danger leading to an urge to confront it or flee from it (also known as the Fight or Flight response) but in extreme cases of fear (terror) a freeze or paralysis response is possible"Liquid Motion

Love to read your blog, for explaination of many of the economic things happening. When I need predictions I read this guy's blog, which so far this year has been incredible. He is not seeing so much economic action but the effects of weather that have been accurate so far. Check him out:http://www.med.umich.edu/intmed/pulmonary/

The Fed's QE - 3 plan is to convert short-term securities into long-term fixed coupon instruments. When this is accomplished, the mechanism for inflating away debt is much easier. The plan is called "Operation Twist". It's not like it was announced this morning after a tumble in copper prices. The last FOMC meeting pretty much gave up kitty on the plan details.

Why on earth would you try to force a dovetailed fit of the price of copper as the motivating factor into this much larger robbery of the US population and its global noteholders?

The Monopoly Monetary Authority doesn't need copper as an exuse to print more money. Its latest printing scheme, Operation Twist, has already been rolled out. They claim it will reduce the supply of long term treasury securities and put downward pressure on long term rates, flattening the yield curve.

The yield curve will indeed be flattened, but not by bringing down long term rates. Short term rates will rise.

If you think the economy is in the tank now, just wait until short term rates begin to tick upward. The cost to fund short term cash needs will balloon. Big Business will cry foul.

At least as copper tanks, fewer criminals will strip abandoned homes and functioning air conditioning units...since those who deal in recycling of copper will be paying far-lower prices.

As for me and mine, I still like copper coins, but even better I like pre-1965 US circulated 90% silver ("junk silver" or "survival silver") as the best hedge against either deflation or inflation...it is still a currency in terms of helping one to make "better barters" when one wants silver and the other wants to trade it for some other life-sustaining commodities.

The Bernank more than likely has got a few more cards up his white collared shirt sleeve.I have no doubt about your (et all) claims of further QE. This will not work. QUID PRO QUO.Yet to be put on the table by the FED is the opportunity to have a Debt / Equity swap on household mortgages. This would be like putting a torch to a tank of gas.....the economy will grow...exponentially and very fast. I have a thought ...put the BANKS on notice and force them to take equity in the houses that they all financed....and let them have more skin in the bubble that they created. Wipe out the negative equity for all house mortgages under water and convert it to equity on the books of the BANKS. Let them carry the burden or force them to mark it down as would be done on a “mark to market “ basis……in due course.You talk of Copper and recession...hmmmmmmm ...What's that I here you say....another recession?The US hasn’t finished with the last one yet. Besides, the housing market is in worse condition than that of the Depression of the 30's. If Copper is saying that Bernanke needs to print…then GOLD is saying the US has too much DEBT.The world has too much DEBT. This Debt trap will become very severe and ultimately lead us all well beyond a recession.Adding more debt Mr B. will only exacerbate an already extreme situation and a downward spiral.

K. Smith ...you are spot on with the call on long vs short term rates. The intention of the FED to convert/swap to Long dated will cause unnecessary pain at the short end. Maybe that’s the intention of the FED (with OP. Twist)...to make everyone swap out of short term debt....after all....the golden rule for investing is to match your asset life with the debt that supports it. You cant have short term debt with long life assets.

Great clarity will be obtained by reading thisrather long but most important understanding ofwhat happened and how to restore America,http://www.harborpublishing.com/pro/1109PRAEOAV1/X350M910/PR If you don't have time to listen toall, just delete the page and you can possibly read it faster than listening.

As copper prices continue to tumble, signaling further economic contraction, there is no question in my mind that Ben Bernanke and his Fools of the Fed will view this as evidence of looming dollar deflation.cnttech.org/

Yeah right....some pompous puke who appears to live in an apartment building and runs a clunky website so full of crap advertisers that it hardly loads is asking $500 for his advice. Talk about hubris.

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