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Between 2006 and 2020, the world is expected to reach a peak in oil production where world demand for oil resources will be greater than the world's available oil supplies. Learn about oil and natural gas depletion and what that means for the global economy and our way of life in the United States.

Tuesday, December 26, 2006

Iran May Need Nuclear Power - Study

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Iran's claim to need nuclear power may be genuine, given that it could run out of oil to export as soon as eight years from now, according to an analysis published on Tuesday by the National Academy of Sciences.

The study's author, Roger Stern, a researcher at Johns Hopkins University in Maryland, said investment in Iranian oil production had been inadequate to offset oil field declines and the explosive growth in domestic demand.

"I'm not saying that Iran will have no oil in eight years," Stern said in a telephone interview. "I'm saying that they will be using all of it for themselves."

The analysis, published in the latest issue of Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, said the Iranian government could become "politically vulnerable" from declining exports.Oil exports account for about 70 percent of Iranian government revenue, said Stern, of the university's department of geography and environmental engineering.

He projected that in five years, Iranian oil exports may be less than half their present level, and could drop to zero by 2015.

"It therefore seems possible that Iran's claim to need nuclear power might be genuine, an indicator of distress from anticipated export revenue shortfalls," he wrote. "If so, the Iranian regime may be more vulnerable than is presently understood."

Iran has vowed to boost its uranium enrichment drive despite new U.N. sanctions approved on Saturday aimed at rolling back a nuclear program that the West fears is a prelude to atomic weapons.

Under Secretary of State Nicholas Burns called on Japan, Europe, Russia and China to stop "business as usual" with Iran "to drive up the cost to the Iranians of essentially doing what they're doing" with uranium enrichment.

Sunday, November 19, 2006

Democrats Aim to Repeal Tax Breaks for Big Oil

Washington - House Democrats are targeting billions of dollars in oil company tax breaks for quick repeal next year. A broader energy proposal that would boost alternative energy sources and conservation is expected to be put off until later.

Hot-button issues such as a tax on the oil industry's windfall profits or sharp increases in automobile fuel economy probably will not gain much ground given the narrow Democratic majorities in the House and Senate. Incoming House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, in an outline of priorities over the first 100 hours of the next Congress in January, promises to begin a move toward greater energy independence "by rolling back the multibillion dollar subsidies for Big Oil."

Yet the energy plan being assembled by Pelosi's aides for the initial round of legislation is less ambitious than her pronouncement might suggest. For the most part, the tax benefits are ones that lawmakers talked of repealing this year when Congress struggled to respond to the public outcry over soaring summer fuel prices and oil companies' huge profits.

Topping the list for repeal are:-Tax breaks for refinery expansion and for geological studies to help oil exploration.

-A measure passed two years ago primarily to promote domestic manufacturing. It allows oil companies to take a tax credit if they chose to drill in this country instead of going abroad.

Democrats say neither tax benefit should be needed for an industry reaping large profits at today's high crude oil prices. Over 10 years, the production tax credit saves oil companies $5 billion and the refinery measure and exploration credit a total of about $1.4 billion, according to Congressional Budget Office estimates.

Other oil tax breaks probably will go unchallenged. That includes some passed by Congress only a year ago and others already targeted for repeal this year. For example, House Democrats have no plans to change a provision that allows oil companies to avoid billions of dollars in taxes by the way they calculate inventories. The Senate this year agreed to a repeal; the effort was abandoned amid House GOP opposition and an uproar from other industries that also benefit from the tax language.

House Democrats also are shying away from tampering with more than $1 billion worth of oil- and gas-related tax breaks, enacted last year. These breaks largely benefit small companies or gas utilities rather than the major oil companies now awash in cash. Nevertheless, the House and Senate are expected to push legislation early to force oil companies to renegotiate flawed offshore drilling leases that have allowed the companies to avoid paying federal royalties. The loss eventually could cost the government $10 billion, according to some congressional estimates.

Other prime targets of House and Senate Democrats include:

-Alleged price gouging. Proposals to create a federal price gouging law for gasoline and other fuels probably will move quickly.

-More incentives and mandates to expand the use of ethanol and biodiesel as a substitute for gasoline. Requiring oil companies to phase in retail pumps that deliver fuel that is 85 percent ethanol.

-Requiring power companies to produce a percentage of their electricity from renewable energy sources such as wind and solar power. Such a measure is a priority of Sen. Jeff Bingaman, D-N.M., incoming chairman of the Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee.

-Extending energy efficiency tax credits approved by Congress last year. Most are scheduled to expire at the end of next year.

-Expanding a tax break for buyers of gas-electric hybrid cars and offering more incentives for automakers to build greater numbers of the vehicles.

Rep. John Dingell, D-Mich., who will take over as chairman of the House Energy and Commerce Committee, said he plans hearings on legislation to spur further production and distribution of ethanol and biodiesel, and promote conservation. But he suggested it will take time to produce legislation. "The process is a long one. It takes hearings, it takes fact finding," said Dingell in a telephone interview.

On the Senate side, Bingaman probably will avoid writing a single broad energy bill, preferring to push through specific legislation. Among Bingaman's other goals are new incentives to spur renewable energy development and more tax breaks for conservation. Last spring, Sen. Charles Schumer, D-N.Y., said if the country is to reduce its addiction to oil and high energy prices it needs a "crash program" to develop more alternative energy sources, dramatically increase conservation and examine "whether or not we should break up the big oil companies." Next year, Schumer assumes the No. 3 leadership position among Senate Democrats and will be one of the party's top strategists.

Wednesday, August 23, 2006

Gas Prices Mean More Students Take Bus

ATLANTA - Most weekday afternoons, PatriciaIsrael waits in her front yard for the school bus to drop off her 6-year-old twin sons. The boys beg to ride the bus every day, which Israel said is fine with her. She sees it as environmentally sound transportation that reduces traffic on the streets and at the school.

It also saves money on gas for her sport utility vehicle. "We're looking at getting a hybrid," Israel said. "Every time I fill up the gas tank, it's like $75."

With gas prices hovering around $3 per gallon, more parents are sending their kids to school on the bus this fall, and school districts across the nation have noticed the increase in ridership."The more the prices go up, the less riders get to school on their own and they go with our buses," said Doug Geller, assistant director of transportation for the Clark County School District in Las Vegas.

In Las Vegas, ridership has risen to about 45 percent of the district's more than 320,000 students. The system opens an average of 10 new schools a year, sprinkling bus stops throughout the surrounding neighborhoods, Geller said.

In the fast-growing Phoenix suburbs, bus ridership is skyrocketing as districts grow by thousands of students each year. Gas prices help attract riders, but heavy road construction and new air-conditioning in buses have also contributed to the increase, said Dianne Bowers with Gilbert Public Schools, southeast of Phoenix.

Some schools are doing more to encourage bus riders.

Janette Shealy, a teacher in the fast-growing Atlanta suburb of Alpharetta, Ga., said her school sends letters to parents about the environmental advantages of the bus system and sponsors a "bus ridership week" each semester when bus riders get candy and prizes.

"We try to just create an awareness of the fact that car vapors impact the quality of our air — the fewer vehicles on the road the better," Shealy said. "Plus, you're never tardy when you ride the bus."

At the Atlanta school where Israel's twins attend, Principal Sidney Baker said he has noticed fewer cars waiting outside the school in the afternoon since classes started last week. He said he encourages parents to put their children on the bus because it eases traffic congestion and makes the school grounds safer during the morning drop-off and afternoon pick-up times.While gas prices play into some parents' decisions, most are swayed by "a lot more important reasons," said Lisa Malice, education chairwoman for the Georgia PTA. Some drive their children to school to spare them a long bus ride.

"One parent told me she likes to spend a little extra time with her kids in the morning," Malice said. "When the bus is picking them up 50 minutes before school starts and dropping off half an hour before school starts, it doesn't make much sense for the kids to get up that early."

Many parents simply like the convenience of not having to fight traffic, especially parents who work far from their child's school.

"Gas really is so expensive," said Mary Lynn Jones, a stay-at-home mom who has four of her five children riding the bus to an elementary school in northern Atlanta. "It's just so much easier."

Monday, August 07, 2006

Energy Department Ready to Tap Emergency Oil

We're taking a very serious look at this," said spokesman Craig Stevens, referring to the loss of nearly half of oil shipments from Alaska's North Slope because of a pipeline corrosion problem.Stevens said the department will be in contact with BP Exploration Alaska Inc. and West Coast refiners later in Monday to assess the situation. "If there is a request for oil we'll certainly take a serious look at that," he said.

Sen. Charles Schumer D-N.Y., often a critic of the administration's energy policy, said: "This is the appropriate and right thing to do. We're glad the White House's reluctance to use the Strategic Petroleum Reserve to prevent price spikes seems to have dissipated."

The Strategic Petroleum Reserve is the nation's emergency stockpile of crude oil. It was created after the 1973 oil embargo when Arab countries halted petroleum exports to protest U.S. support for Israel. The reserve has about 700 million barrels in storage on the Gulf Coast to be used in case of a serious supply disruption. The Energy Department in the past has lent SPR oil to refineries when there were disruptions because of pipeline or other problems.

Most of Alaska's oil goes to refineries on the West Coast. It was unclear how those refineries would be supplied with oil on the Gulf Coast. However any oil put into the market to replace lost Alaska oil would tend to ease prices, market experts say. Oil prices jumped by more than $1 a barrel Monday following a production shutdown at an Alaskan oil field that accounts for about 8 percent of U.S. production. BP Exploration Alaska Inc. began shutting down oil production Sunday at Prudhoe Bay due to severe pipeline corrosion.

Once the field is shut down, in a process expected to take days, BP said oil production would be reduced by 400,000 barrels a day. BP officials said they didn't know how long the Prudhoe Bay field would be off line.

The nation's petroleum reserve was created in legislation signed by President Ford in December 1975, which made it U.S. policy to create a reserve capable of holding up to 1 billion barrels of oil as an insurance policy against future supply disruptions. Oil companies contribute to the supply in lieu of paying cash royalties for oil pumped on federally owned land.

Saturday, August 05, 2006

Asia Goes Nuclear to Meet Rising Energy Demands

In the face of rising oil prices and chronic air pollution, Asian nations are looking to nuclear power to solve their energy problems.Reactors are being built across the region. Japan and South Korea have the most developed nuclear industries, but China and India are leading the charge with new projects.John Ritch is the director general of the World Nuclear Association.

“The two largest nuclear planned programs in the world right now are those of India and China,“ he said. “I would expect that each of those countries, by the middle of this century, will have 250 nuclear power reactors. Now that sounds like a lot, but it won’t be a very substantial portion of their electricity.“

China alone plans to build 30 reactors by 2020, up from nine now. Eight of those are under construction, with two nearing completion. The reactors are part of an ambitious government effort to rapidly expand electricity output to keep up with its booming manufacturing industry, voanews.com said. China has been moving to alternative energy sources such as wind, hydroelectric and nuclear in an effort to cut its use of coal. Pollution from coal burning plants blankets most Chinese cities. And moving coal from the mines in the north and west to the industrialized east is straining the transportation system. India has 15 reactors operating, and nine are under construction. Although nuclear power provides only about three percent of India’s electricity, the World Nuclear Association estimates that could increase to 25 percent by mid-century.Unlike China and India, which only recently began rushing to build reactors, Japan and South Korea have long relied on nuclear technology to reduce their need for foreign fuels.Japan depends on imported oil, gas and coal for about 80 percent of its energy needs, which leaves its highly industrialized economy vulnerable to market fluctuations.

Nuclear reactors account for about a third of Japan’s energy production, and the government says it plans to increase that to more than 40 percent by 2014, after adding more than 10 new reactors.South Korea is even more dependent than Japan on imported fuel--as much as 97 percent of its fossil fuel supply is imported. South Korean government reports show 20 reactors provide 40 percent of electricity production, and at least eight new reactors are planned.There are concerns, however, about this rush to go nuclear. Reactors present the risk of a radiation accident that could kill or sicken thousands of people. They also are expensive to build. Liu Changxin of the China Nuclear Society says one of the main factors in China’s nuclear plan is the need to reduce air pollution. Still, he says, it is only part of the solution.

“I don’t think nuclear power can play the most important, or even a very important role in China’s energy supply,“ he said. “Just a part of our energy policy, just one of the choices.“

Liu says that China’s energy needs are growing so rapidly that the country needs to consider all options.Greenpeace wants to see countries such as China and India explore other choices. Szeping Lo, a Greenpeace spokesman in Hong Kong, says China has taken steps to develop renewable energy sources.

“Just last November the deputy minister of energy announced that China will increase its wind energy development target from 20 gigawatts to 30 gigawatts by 2020,“ he said.

That is almost the same amount of energy China plans to produce using nuclear power. Lo opposes all uses of nuclear power because of the dangers and costs. “The nuclear industry is a dying industry. No new nuclear power plant has been built in the US in the last decade, and there’s no new nuclear power plants being built either in Western Europe, in many other countries,“ Lo said.John Ritch at the World Nuclear Association is frustrated by the opposition to nuclear technology. He says nuclear energy is clean and safe and should stand side by side with other clean energy technologies.

Sunday, July 30, 2006

Bicycle and oil deals cement Chavez's ties to Iran

Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez enveloped his Iranian counterpart Mahmoud Ahmadinejad in a bear hug on Sunday and the two men backed their anti-U.S. rhetoric with deals on everything from bicycles to oil.

In a typically verbose speech, robust ex-paratrooper Chavez lambasted their common enemy, Washington.

"If the U.S. empire succeeds in establishing its dominance, there will be no future for humanity. Therefore we should save humanity and end the American empire," Chavez told a crowd at the University of Tehran.

Chavez also criticized the current offensive by Israel, Iran's arch-enemy, against Lebanon as "both fascism and terrorism." This chimed with the view of Iran's president who has compared Israel's conduct to that of Adolf Hitler.

A beaming Ahmadinejad presented Chavez with the golden "High Medallion of the Islamic Republic of Iran" and slipped a blue sash around his chest.

"Mr Chavez is my brother, the brother of the whole Iranian nation and of all freedom-seeking people in the world," he said.

"He is a perpetual warrior against the dominant system, a worshipper of God and a servant of the people," he added.

Chavez and Ahmadinejad are both ex-military populists who take a hawkish price stance in theOPEC oil cartel. They enjoy a close personal rapport.

Both countries frequently boast they are steeled for any military assault the United States may launch. Venezuelan Energy and Mines Minister Rafael Ramirez echoed the leaders' defiant attitude by threatening to cut oil exports to the United States if Washington did not drop its hostile stance toward Chavez's administration.

MORE THAN RHETORICBut there was more than Yankee-bashing to the visit, and the Venezuelan delegation signed several Memorandums of Understanding on joint work in the oil industry and housing.Iran and Venezuela also signed deals on jointly making bicycles, medicines and industrial moulds, and pledged to cooperate in aviation and on environmental issues, though details on all these contracts were hazy.

Petropars is already certifying some tarry crude in the Orinoco Belt and is looking to develop reserves there. It also wants to supply training and services to the Norte de Paria offshore gas field.

A planned deal for Venezuela to export gasoline to Iran was canceled. Industry Minister Alireza Tahmasbi told Reuters this was because of problems over pricing and quality.The contract had attracted considerable interest because of confusion over whether Iran is going to cut gasoline imports from September 23.

Iranian investors have already poured $1 billion of investment into Venezuela, mainly in sectors such as energy, construction and tractor-building.

Carmaker Iran Khodro said it would start making its Samand model in Venezuela in October.Although commercial deals are proceeding, some analysts have said that Chavez's dependence on the United States as a major buyer of his oil will probably prevent him from striking any arms deals with Tehran.

Chavez visited Moscow before Iran, and on Thursday Russia said it had sold Venezuela 77 aircraft and helicopters as part of a long-term package of arms deals worth over $3 billion.

Friday, June 16, 2006

Where Does U.S. Oil Come From?

-------I've read a lot of articles describing the war in Iraq as a war for oil and the United State's attempt to control Middle Eastern oil, but I'm starting to rethink my support for that premise. Although relations with Saudi Arabia have been strained since 9-11, when the US enacted the Patriot Act with strict terrorist financing regulations, causing many countries to move their money outside of US banks and then tensions also arose with Saudi Arabai, from President Bush's recent speeches stating the intent to get off of oil from the Middle East. No matter how myopic the vision of the current administration may be, it just doesn't add up for me that we would start a war in Iraq to take over their oil when Iraq is such a small current and future player in the oil.

Now after looking at the above list, if we had decided to invade a few countries in Africa, then maybe that theory might make sense. Do I think our presence in Iraq is part of strategic military positioning in our backwards and juvenile thinking that we can police the rest of the world, yes. Do I think Venezuala should really be concerned about a US military threat? Yes. Do I think that in the future, the U.S. is above waging war with any and everyone for the last scraps of oil left on the planet...no. I guess I just don't think we're they're yet...and that we're missing the main point by strictly focusing on the Middle East...especially since we get our oil from many other conflict -rich areas of the world.

Kind of just looking at the numbers and thinking out loud on this one...and I haven't writtend in awhile, so hopefully some of the above made sense.

Cows Make Fuel For Biogas Train

You have to tell yourself the cows are going to die anyway. Inside the abattoir at Swedish Meats in Linkoping, the cows stood patiently, occasionally nuzzling the lens of our camera. From there, it was a short walk past the white-walled butchery, down the steps to the basement where the raw material for biogas, slid greasily down a chute.

Still bubbling and burping, and carpeting you with an acrid stench, came the organs and the fat and the guts. Enough, from one cow, to get you about 4km (2.5 miles) on the train. A tanker collects the organic sludge and makes the short journey to the biogas factory, where the stinking fuel is stewed gently for a month, before the methane can be drawn off.

The world's first biogas-powered passenger train is taking its first passengers between the Swedish cities of Linkoping and Vastervik. And the biogas comes from the entrails of dead cows.'Amanda' runs between the Swedish cities of Linkoping and VastervikThe boss of Svensk Biogas, Carl Lilliehook, is a proper, serious Swede. But his eyes twinkle at the biofuel "revolution", as he calls it. You don't have to look far beneath the number-crunching CEO to find the muesli-crunching environment-lover.

Yes, he says, the train between Linkoping and Vastervik will cost 20% more to run on methane than on the usual diesel. But the oil price is going up and up, and in any case, Swedes care about being able to pick our mushrooms and their fruit. Nor is it just trains. In Linkoping, the 65-strong bus fleet is powered by biogas. Indeed the city boasts that it was the first in the world to try out its buses on methane. The taxis, the rubbish trucks and a number of private cars also fill up at the biogas pump, housed under a dinky green corrugated iron roof.

And if methane doesn't light your fire, you can choose to have your car run on a high-grade biofuel mix. This year, Saab started selling a biopowered version of their 95 model.Its engine will take a fuel cocktail which is up to 85% bioethanol, made, principally, from Brazilian sugar cane.

The experts regard bioethanol and biodiesel as "carbon-neutral", because they spew fewer carbon emissions, and the crops which provide them absorb greenhouse-gas causing carbon dioxide, as they grow.

Saab is now selling a biopowered version of their 95 modelThe Saab executive we spoke to said his company would like to sell the car in the UK but, for the time being, the biofuel infrastructure is not there. Bioethanol - at a 5% mix - only became available from the start of the year in Britain.

In Sweden, the attraction is not limited just to the large, green consensus. The bio-powered version of the Saab 95 costs around $1,000 (£500) more than the normal model.But with pump prices for the E85 mix a third cheaper than normal petrol, company car tax breaks, and exemptions for parking and congestion charges, Saab reckons you get that $1,000 back within the first year.

The harsh truth is that, across Europe, transport is not pulling its weight when it comes to meeting the Kyoto targets on cutting greenhouse gas emissions. Industry is. So, to a lesser extent, are households and agriculture. But now the European Commission - the guardian of the European Union - has weighed in, demanding that transport do more. It has set binding targets for the amount of fuel use it wants taken up by bio-products by the end of this year, and by 2010.

The UK is set to fall well short of the 2% target for the end of December. The government reckons it is on course for 0.3%. Sweden is likely to be 10 times ahead, at 3%. By road and by rail, Sweden has a lot to teach the rest of us.

Kick the Oil Habit

Check out Robert Redford's website. He's circulating a petition to encourage Big Oil (ExxonMobil, Chevron, BP, Shell, Valero, and ConocoPhillips) to offer alternative fuels on a widespread basis. I'd prefer to have Americans move toward divorcing their cards altogether...but I think is a move in the right direction. Plus, I just dig the website name. :~)