Monday, March 16, 2015

2015 Tampa Bay Buccaneers Offseason Plan - Take Two

The first wave of free agency has ended, and it’s time to
reassess the offseason plan. In are
Bruce Carter, Henry Melton, and Chris Conte.
New jersey
sales aren’t exactly booming, but Lovie Smith has brought in players who he
believe will make a difference. Both
Melton and Conte played for Smith in Chicago,
and Carter played for Lovie’s buddy Rod Marinelli in Dallas.

The plan is for Carter to fill the MLB vacancy, Melton to
provide pass rush depth at tackle, and Conte to take the starting FS job from
an eventually released Dashon Goldson. Carter
played the SLB position in Marninelli’s defense, but he believes he can make
the transition to the middle in Tampa. It’s a bit of a gamble for the Bucs
personnel-wise, but his contract isn’t guaranteed past this year. Melton and Conte are short-term investments
as well, both signing one year deals.

I don’t love the Carter acquisition, but I see the thought
behind it, and given the contract, I’m on board. I like Melton as depth in pass rushing
situations, but I’m not a fan of the Conte acquisition. I would have liked to see the Bucs be more
involved for Devin McCourty, Jabaal Sheard, Walter Thurmond, and Eddie
Royal. Two other targets of mine, RT
Joseph Barksdale and CB Patrick Robinson, are still available as I write
this.

McCourty ended up signing a 5yr $47.5m contract with the
Patriots that pays him nearly $30m in the first 3 years. The Bucs could not have topped that. They could have, however, topped the 2yr $11m
contract ($5.5m guaranteed) that the Patriots gave Sheard. The Bucs entered the offseason needing to add
a pass rusher and so far have released Michael Johnson. Thurmond got $3.25m from the Eagles for one
year; nothing obscene about that. Royal
signed a very affordable 3yr $15m contract with only the first two years
guaranteed.

Taking into account Goldson’s inevitable release, the Bucs
have about $33m in cap space. Sheard and
Royal would have fit in their nicely and given the Bucs two less positions to
worry about in the draft. But the Bucs
had other plans.

If I can assume Demar Dotson is going to play LT, then it
appears the Bucs are going to enter the draft, a draft in which they’re
expected to spend the first pick on a QB, with noticeable holes at RG and
RT. If they had picked up a pass rusher
or slot receiver in free agency, then they could have more comfortably allocated
more draft picks to the offensive line. But
the Bucs had other plans.

Now they’ll be forced to, again, focus more of their draft
on addressing needs rather than grabbing the best available talent. Given this organization’s history with the
amateur lottery, relying on them to hit with more consistency with draft picks
isn’t a wise proposition.

So here we are. The
Bucs currently have eight draft picks; one in each round and two in the
fifth. Their remaining trade bait
includes Mike Glennon and Doug Martin.
Odds are decent that at least one of those guys is dealt, giving the
Bucs at least one more opportunity for success.
I have their top needs, in order, as QB, DE, RT, RG, NCB, SWR, and
FS.

Here’s my revised look at how R1 will play out –

1) TB – Jameis Winston (QB, FSU)

No change here. The
Bucs need a franchise QB and get the best this class has to offer. I expect Jameis to take the first snap week
1.

2) TEN – Leonard Williams (DL, USC)

I don’t know if Zach Mettenberger is going to save Ken
Whisenhunt’s job in Tennessee,
but it would be very un-Whisenhunt for him to put all of his eggs in Mariota’s
basket. I think Tennessee plays it safe and takes the
consensus best defensive player in the draft.

3) JAX – Dante Fowler (DE/OLB, Florida)

Jared Odrick was a nice addition to the defensive line, but
they still need a pass rusher. As I
mentioned last time, Fowler may end up being the best defensive player from
this class.

4) OAK – Kevin White (WR, West Virginia)

Oakland
supposedly got in on Randall Cobb and Julius Thomas and obviously failed. I expect them to focus on giving David Carr a
true #1 receiver with this pick, and I’m sticking with White over Cooper.

5) CLE – Marcus Mariota (QB, Oregon)

I’m having a really hard time projecting where Mariota is
going to go, and I still think this might be a little high. You can’t count Philly out, despite what Chip
Kelly himself said, but who else would trade up for Mariota? Cleveland
is starving for success at the position, and they’ve shown interest in and have
at least one tie (QB coach Kevin O’Connell) to Mariota. I think the deal gets done for the #12 pick,
and Cleveland’s
R2 and R7 picks.

6) NYJ – Vic Beasley (OLB, Clemson)

After striking gold in free agency at the cornerback
position, new HC Todd Bowles get a much needed pass rusher. No, I don’t think they’d take Mariota if he
was available.

7) CHI – Amari Cooper (WR, Alabama)

I’ve got the Bears going with Cooper over Danny Shelton
here. Trading Brandon Marshall to the
Jets opened up a spot opposite Alshon Jeffery, and I’m not sure the new regime
is sold on Marquess Wilson as a starter.

The Giants have needs on both offensive and defensive lines,
and tackle Marshall Newhouse is the only guy they’ve brought in. They’ve got nothing inside next to Johnathan
Hankins, so I’m going with Shelton
over Shane Ray and Brandon Scherff.

10) STL – Brandon Scherff (OL, Iowa)

As of now Joseph Barksdale hasn’t resigned with the Rams, so
they have openings at both guard and tackle.
Scherff projects to both positions.

11) MIN – Trae Waynes (CB, MichiganState)

After acquiring Mike Wallace, a receiver doesn’t seem like a
possibility here. This should come down
to a corner or offensive lineman.

12) WAS – La’el Collins (OL, LSU)

With the first pick gained in the trade with Cleveland the Redskins
take Collins, who, with Trent Williams, gives them an impressive pair of
starting tackles.

13) NO – Shane Ray (DE/OLB, Missouri)

Pass rush is a huge need, and Parys Haralson has been their
only addition so far. Also, Sean Payton
apparently wants to get rid of Junior Galette.

14) MIA – DeVante Parker (WR, Louisville)

They did just replace Wallace with Kenny Stills, but I
believe adding Parker to go with Stills and Jarvis Landry will give Ryan
Tannehill all the chance in the world to succeed.

15) SF – Bud Dupree (DE/OLB, Kentucky)

The Niners have really taken a hit since the start of free
agency. Patrick Willis retired, Justin
Smith might not be too far behind him, they lost their two most productive
cornerbacks, and the offense lost Frank Gore and Mike Iupati. New head coach Jim Tomsula gets himself a
pass rusher.

16) HOU – Andrus Peat (T, Stanford)

Tackle isn’t an urgent need, but Peat’s skill set fits what
they do in Houston
and gives them versatility to play right or left tackle.

17) PHI – Dorial Green-Beckham (WR, Oklahoma)

Chip Kelly moves up, but it’s not for Mariota. I think DGB fits what Kelly is looking for at
receiver, and I could see him moving ahead of receiver-needy KC and Cleveland to secure his
guy. The cost may be nothing more than
the 20th pick and their R4 selection.

18) KC – Eric Kendricks (LB, UCLA)

Inside linebacker and offensive tackle are the Chiefs
biggest needs, and if they stay in this spot, I don’t think it’s too early for
Kendricks. He’d look great next to
Derrick Johnson.

19) CLE – Eddie Goldman (DT, FSU)

With the pick acquired from Buffalo, the Browns address a big need on the
defensive line. Goldman can occupy
blockers, shut down run lanes, and get after the passer.

20) SD – Todd Gurley (RB, Georgia)

The Chargers spent some of their free agent dollars on
offensive linemen and watched their best running back leave for Philly. Gurley is a big boost to Philip Rivers’ career.

21) CIN – Malcom Brown (DL, Texas)

The Bengals have numbers on the defensive line, but I think
they need to improve the quality at tackle.

22) PIT – Landon Collins (S, Alabama)

I’ve got to think they go defense with this pick. If not Collins then a CB or OLB.

23) DET – Arik Armstead (DT, Oregon)

They did replace Ndamukong Suh with Haloti Ngata, but they
also lost Nick Fairley and may lose CJ Mosley.
Corner and offensive line are two other avenues they may pursue.

24) ARI – Marcus Peters (CB, Washington)

If the Cardinals don’t acquire Adrian Peterson from the
Vikings, maybe RB is in play here, but they also need a starting corner since
Cro went back to NY.

25) CAR – TJ Clemmings (T, Pittsburgh)
The Panthers have needs at both left and right tackle, and Clemmings is a
prospect with that “upside” descriptor.

26) BAL – Jaelen Strong (WR, ArizonaState)

Torrey Smith bolted for San Fran, and Jacoby Jones left them
for the Bolts. Steve Smith can’t play
forever, and Marlon Brown is currently listed as their other starter. That won’t last long.

27) DAL – Eli Harold (DE/OLB, Virginia)

Of the additions Dallas
has made, none have been along the defensive line. They must get better at getting to the
passer.

This may look a little high for Anthony, but the Colts are
desperate for help in the middle of their defense and have reportedly been hot
after Anthony.

30) GB – Kevin Johnson (CB, WakeForest)

They’ve already lost Davon House and may lose Tramon
Williams too. I think this is either CB
or LB.

31) NOR – Ereck Flowers (T, Miami)

The Saints use the Jimmy Graham pick to add some needed
depth to the offensive line.

32) NE – Jalen Collins (CB, LSU)

The champs close out R1 by addressing their cornerback exodus
with the press cover guy from LSU.

Remaining Buccaneer Picks

R2

This pick has to be an offensive lineman or edge
rusher. In the first round I had six
offensive linemen and six edge rushers chosen, and with pick #34, I expect the
Bucs to have more options on the offensive line. As the draft played out above, I’ve got this
pick down to two players head and shoulders above the rest.

The pick – Jake Fisher (T, Oregon)

As I mentioned earlier, the first pick is going to be a QB,
and there are zero quality starting candidates on the current roster at RG and
RT. They must protect their investment,
and if (when) Jameis is the pick, he’s going to play early. Fisher might be the most athletic tackle in
this year’s class, and what I really like about him is that he’s not simply an
athletic, zone-blocking stereotype guy, he plays with power. I also think he has a bit of position
flexibility with him, so Fisher could give the Bucs options at LT, RT and
guard.

My other choice at #34 is Preston Smith (DE, MississippiState).
I think he’s the Bucs best remaining chance to upgrade the pass
rusher. He’s big and quick and doesn’t
give ground on the line of scrimmage. I
have noticed that he stops his feet too often and gives up too early on plays,
but that’s correctable. Smith played a lot of right end at MSU, but I like him
better on the left side in the pros.
He’s big and strong enough to handle himself against right tackles and
often gets the edge with his quickness off the line and hand usage.

R3

After addressing the offensive line and not seeing a pass
rusher I like in this range, I’m looking at wide receiver and cornerback. At receiver I want someone who could start
right away in the slot and eventually be able to move out wide when Vincent
Jackson moves on. At corner I want
someone who can contribute as the nickel right away and eventually project as a
boundary starter.

The pick – Tre McBride (WR, William & Mary)

He’s an ideal slot receiver for Jameis. McBride has excellent hands and consistently
makes contested catches in tight spaces.
He’s the perfect compliment to Evans and Jackson and has shown enough
vertical playmaking ability to project as an eventual flanker. McBride could also contribute as a return
man.

I’ve read that Ifo-Ekpre-Olomu (CB, Oregon) has a chance to be available in this
range, and he would be my choice at cornerback.

R4

So far the Bucs have taken:

Jameis Winston (QB, FSU)

Jake Fisher (T, Oregon)

Tre McBride (WR, William & Mary)

I’ve got three positions in mind here – OL, CB, and edge
rusher – with an emphasis on the latter two.
You’ve got a better chance of finding an offensive lineman or cornerback
later in the draft than a quality pass rusher, so I’d really like to see the
Bucs get one with or before this pick if they’re going to draft one.

The pick – Lynden Trail (DE, NorfolkState)

Long and lean pass rusher who must get stronger and improve
his hand usage at the point of contact.
He’s got a bigger wingspan than likely #2 overall pick Leonard Williams
and the quickness to contribute in backside pursuit.

At corner I like Senquez Golson (Ole Miss), and Donovan Smith
(PennState)
and Rob Havenstein (Wisconsin)
are two tackles I’d consider here. If
the Bucs end up trading Martin or Glennon, I’d want one of these guys to be the
pick.

R5

Jeremiah Poutasi (OL, Utah)

Jarvis Harrison (G, Texas
A&M)

With the two fifth round picks I’ve got the Bucs double
dipping on the offensive line with holdovers from my first mock. Poutasi played both right and left tackle in
college but projects as either a right tackle or guard in the pros. Harrison saw
most of his time at left guard and would be an option at the right guard spot
as well.

With their first six picks, I have the Bucs taking three
offensive linemen, a quarterback and a pass rusher. Cornerback is the one position of obvious
weakness I’d still like to address, and depending on what happens with Martin
or one of the other rushers, running back might be an option.

R6-R7

Bobby McCain (CB, Memphis)

John Crockett (RB, North DakotaState)

McCain is so quick to close on the ball. He’s physical enough to play man in the slot
and quick enough to play the short zone in front of him. Technique and tenacity are there as a
tackler, but he can’t help his size.
Only Shaq Thompson has more defensive TDs among players in this class
than McCain. I took Crockett with my
last pick in the first draft, and I’ll stick with him here. I still think the Bucs tinker with the
backfield, and as I mentioned last time, Crockett reminds me of James
Starks. I think there’s value in taking
a back capable of playing all three downs this late in the draft.