Today, it is the turn of Kempton to come under the "draw spotlight". I have collated data from 2000 to 2003, using races of 10 or more runners.

KEMPTON (5 Furlong)

The eight qualifying races gave the following statistics:

Top “third” of
the draw

Middle “third”
of the draw

Bottom“third”
of the draw

Winning %

62.5

37.5

0

Placed 1st, 2nd or 3rd %

45.8

37.5

16.7

Statistical conclusion: a very small sample but high seems to have the advantage.

The seven handicaps gave the following win statistics:

Top “third” of
the draw

Middle “third” of the draw

Bottom“third” of the draw

Winning %

57.1

42.9

0

KEMPTON (6 Furlong)

The 43 qualifying races gave the following statistics:

Top “third” of
the draw

Middle “third”
of the draw

Bottom“third”
of the draw

Winning %

46.5

20.9

32.6

Placed 1st, 2nd or 3rd %

45.7

20.9

33.3

Statistical conclusion: high boxes
do best, with middle draws struggling.

The 24 handicaps gave the following win statistics:

Top “third” of
the draw

Middle “third”
of the draw

Bottom“third”
of the draw

Winning %

50

25

25

More detailed summary of Kempton (5f-6f)

Sprints are run on a separate course, so the track
is not used for round-course races. Only a handful of
five-furlong races are staged each season, but when
combining the four-year statistics for both sprint trips
(51 races), it becomes clear that the top third has
a definite edge:

Top “third” of
the draw

Middle “third”
of the draw

Bottom“third”
of the draw

Winning %

49

23.5

27.5

Placed 1st, 2nd or 3rd %

45.8

23.5

30.7

Higher draws have held sway generally, but one factor
that always needs to be taken into consideration is
the positioning of the stalls. In the past Kempton have
placed the stalls on either the stands’ side (low)
or far side (high), but last year often saw the stalls
positioned down the centre.

There were only eight races with the stalls placed
in the middle, so one cannot therefore make a definite
judgement. The far-side/stands’-side positioning
can be examined, though, and the figures produced are
as follows (five and six furlongs):

Far side (25 races)

Top “third” of
the draw

Middle “third” of the draw

Bottom“third” of the draw

Winning %

52

20

28

Placed 1st, 2nd or 3rd %

53.3

22.7

24

Stands’ side (18 races)

Top “third” of
the draw

Middle “third” of the draw

Bottom“third” of the draw

Winning %

44.4

27.8

27.8

Placed 1st, 2nd or 3rd %

37

24.1

38.9

These results are highly informative, as it’s
clear that when the stalls are placed on the far side
higher draws have a definite advantage (the top stall
is positioned next to the far rail).
When the stalls are placed on the stands’ side
(low), higher draws still have the edge, but it is not
so significant. The reason for this is that in fields
of say 10-17, high numbers are still some distance from
the favoured far rail.

To confuse matters further, there are times when the
stands’ rail rides as quick as, or quicker than,
the far rail.

Last year was a typical one for the track, with the
bias swinging mid-season. From March through August
high numbers had a massive advantage, as shown by the
following results:

Date

Stalls
Position

Winner
& Comments

22/03/03

Far

Prime Recreation won from stall 16 of 16

22/03/03

Far

Glencoe Solas won from stall 10 of 12

19/04/03

Stands’

Hits Only Money won from 15 of 18 (beating 14
and 16)

21/04/03

Stands’

Seel Of Approval won from 20 of 20 (beating 18
and 19)

24/05/03

Centre

Peruvian Chief won from stall 10 of 11

24/05/03

Centre

Ringmoor Down won from stall 14 of 18 at 66-1

16/07/03

Centre

Ruby Rocket won from stall 9 of 10 (beating 7
and 8)

30/07/03

Centre

Back At De Front won from stall 11 of 11

20/08/03

Centre

Moonlight Man won from stall 9 of 12 (beating
10 and 12)

However, this changed in September, with the final
three races showing no bias towards high numbers (indeed
low to middle were favoured):

Date

Stalls Position

Winner & Comments

5/09/03

Centre

Unshooda won from stall 7 (beating 18, 3, one
and 8

6/09/03

Centre

A Very Good Year won from 9 of 17 (beating 7 and
1)

22/09/03

Centre

Thurlestone Rock won from 5 of 18 (first two stands’
side)

To conclude, horses drawn close to the far rail (high)
are often at an advantage, but runners nearest to the
stands’ rail (low) are, at worst, competitive
from time to time. The positioning of the stalls is
clearly an influential factor, but when they are placed
on the far side high numbers are always the ones to
concentrate on.

KEMPTON (1 mile)

The round course at Kempton is essentially a right-handed
triangle of 1m5f with run-in of about three and a half
furlongs. The Jubilee course (longest distance - 1m2f)
joins round course before home turn. The mile trip can
be run on either course, and both seem to have some
draw bias.

The round course has staged more races than the jubilee
course in the past four seasons, and over a mile there
have been 29 qualifying races. The results produced
the following statistics:

Top “third” of
the draw

Middle “third” of the draw

Bottom“third” of the draw

Winning %

44.8

35.4

20.7

Placed 1st, 2nd or 3rd %

36.8

34.5

28.7

Higher draws seem to have an edge on the round course
over a mile, while lower draws struggle. In handicaps,
lower draws have been at a greater disadvantage winning
just one of the 17 races (5.9%). In 03, there was a
good example of the mile bias on 6 August, the Irish
Post Apprentice Handicap going to Florian (drawn 14)
from Castaigne (drawn 15) and Diliza (drawn 16). They
were the top three-drawn horses in the field. The Jubilee
course hosted 16 qualifying races over a mile between
00-03 and the results were as follows:

Top “third” of
the draw

Middle “third” of the draw

Bottom“third” of the draw

Winning %

37.5

62.5

0

Placed 1st, 2nd or 3rd %

45.8

29.2

25

Although there were only 16 races, it seems likely
that low draws at a fairly significant disadvantage.
However, there has been only one qualifying race in
the past two seasons. Over both courses, it is a disadvantage
to be drawn low, and as with many courses, the draw
bias is more significant in handicaps.

To conclude, it is best to concentrate therefore on
middle to higher draws on both courses and the highest
four stalls have the best record at both courses (round
course 12 of 29 winners; Jubilee six of 16 winners).