Economic Effects of Coronavirus Outbreak (COVID-19) on the World Economy

University of Navarra, IESE Business School; European Corporate Governance Institute (ECGI)

Date Written: March 22, 2020

Abstract

This report discusses the economic impact of the Coronavirus/COVID-19 crisis across industries, and countries. It also provides estimates of the potential global economic costs of COVID-19, and the GDP growth of different countries.

The current draft includes estimates for 30 countries, under different scenarios.

The report shows the economic effects of outbreak are currently being underestimated, due to over-reliance on historical comparisons with SARS, or the 2008/2009 financial crisis.

At the date of this report, the duration of the lockdown, as well as how the recovery will take place is still unknown. That is why several scenarios are used. In a mild scenario, GDP growth would take a hit, ranging from 3-6% depending on the country. As a result, in the sample of 30 countries covered, we would see a median decline in GDP in 2020 of -2.8%. In other scenarios, GDP can fall more than 10%, and in some countries, more than 15%.

Service-oriented economies will be particularly negatively affected, and have more jobs at risk. Countries like Greece, Portugal, and Spain that are more reliant on tourism (more than 15% of GDP) will be more affected by this crisis. This current crisis is generating spillover effects throughout supply chains. Therefore, countries highly dependent on foreign trade are more negatively affected. The results suggest that on average, each additional month of crisis costs 2.5-3% of global GDP.

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