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Sunday, August 10, 2014

The Cairo Talks: Mediation or End Game in the Gaza War?

Joint efforts by Israel and Egypt to prevent Hamas from
emerging from the Gaza war with a political victory not only threaten to
undermine efforts to achieve a formal Israeli-Palestinian ceasefire but could
also close the door to a potential breakthrough that would allow for
Palestinian economic development, the creation of building blocks for a future
resolution of the conflict, and at least a partial reversal of damage to
Israel’s international standing.

Key to the stalled Egypt-led talks in Cairo to negotiate an
end to fighting between Israel and Hamas, the Islamist militia that controls
the Gaza Strip, is the intimate relationship forged between Israeli and
Egyptian leaders since the military coup that toppled Egyptian President
Mohammed Morsi a little more than a year ago. The relationship is built on
shared political goals, first and foremost among which deep-seated animosity
towards the Muslim Brotherhood, of which Hamas is an offshoot.

At the core of the virtual breakdown of the ceasefire talks
is Hamas’ demand backed by all Palestinian factions, including the Palestine
Authority headed by President Mahmoud Abbas that any halt to the fighting
involve a lifting of the Israeli-Egyptian blockade of Gaza. It is a demand that
addresses not only Israel but also Egypt which has refused to reverse its
closing of border crossings with Gaza. For its part, Israel has demanded with
Egyptian support the demilitarization of Gaza.

On the face of it, the gap between the Israeli and
Palestinian negotiating position would seem hard to bridge.

Lifting the Gaza
blockade would hand Hamas a political victory. Demilitarization would
constitute a political defeat at a time that Palestinians are winning
international sympathy; Israel’s image has been severely tarnished as it faces
mounting criticism from some of its closest allies and a significantly
strengthened movement calling for a boycott of and sanctions against the Jewish
state; and world leaders, including President Barak Obama, are starting to
question the blockade of Gaza.

Bridging that gap is no mean fete. It threatens to be a
still-born baby when the mediator shares the political goals of one of the
parties and is reluctant to put forward demands of the other party because they
contradict the mediator’s own objectives. Yet, that is what is happening in
Cairo.

Egypt demonstrated its approach when it a month ago it put
forward the very first proposal to achieve a ceasefire in the Gaza war. The
proposal was rejected by Hamas because Egypt did not even bother to consult it
before putting its proposal forward. Egypt has maintained its approach
throughout the talks that last week succeeded in silencing the guns for 72
hours but have failed to advance prospects for a more long-lasting ceasefire.

Throughout last week’s talks Egypt has sought to water down
the Palestinian demands for a lifting of the blockade and the building of a
port in Gaza that would give the strip its only link to the outside world that
would not go through Egypt or Israel. In an absolution of responsibility, Egypt
advised the Palestinians that their demand for an opening of Egypt’s border
crossings with Gaza had been rejected by Israel. Egypt advised the Palestinians
that an easing or lifting of the blockade would only be possible in exchange
for demilitarization, the effective defanging of Hamas and other militant
groups in Hamas. Palestinian negotiators have stuck to their core demands but
dropped several of their conditions for a permanent ceasefire including the
release of Palestinians who had been freed as part of US-sponsored peace talks
earlier this year and have since been re-arrested and expansion from three to
12 miles of Gaza’s territorial waters.

While Israel has rejected the demand for a port as well as
safe passage for Palestinians travelling between Gaza and the West Bank it has
said it would allow the transfer of funds for the payment of Hamas government
employees and the rebuilding of the territory as well as some easing of restrictions
on border crossings. Israel has also backed down on its opposition to a
Hamas-backed national unity government headed by Abbas that would extend its
rule to Gaza. In agreeing to a reconstruction of Gaza, Israel has however
insisted on strict controls on any goods that could be used to build tunnels or
weapons.

If the peace talks have produced anything, it is a
conviction among Palestinian negotiators that Israel would like to see an end
to the hostilities. The problem is that this reinforces Palestinian resolve.
The dilemma is that “Israel demands a cease-fire before renewing negotiations,
whereas Hamas believes that only rocket fire will make Israel more flexible,”
said prominent Israeli journalist Zvi Bar’el in Ha’aretz newspaper.

Egypt appears for now to have closed the door to avenues
that could lead to a bridging of the gap between the Israeli and Palestinian
negotiating positions such as international policing of any agreement that
would be implemented incrementally based on fulfilment of obligations by both
parties at each stage of the process. Egypt argued that such steps should be
part of peace rather than ceasefire negotiations. Egypt’s “only concession so
far has been to hold talks even in the absence of a cease-fire,” Bar’el concluded.

The stalemate in the talks in the absence of an honest
broker holds out little hope for a semi-permanent silencing of the guns. Egyptian
strongman-turned-president Abdel Fattah Al Sisi appeared to be signalling that
with his departure on Sunday for visits to Saudi Arabia, his main foreign
backer, and Russia. He has left General Mohammed Ahmed Fareed al-Tohami, the
head of Egyptian military intelligence, the agency traditionally dealing with
Israeli-Palestinian issues, in charge of the stalled talks.

Israel meanwhile appears to be taking care since the last
ceasefire elapsed that fewer civilians are killed in the fighting witness the
significantly lower casualty figures in recent days. Gaza moreover no longer
monopolizes the top of the international agenda with the United States entering
the Iraqi fray in a bid to roll back advances by the Islamic state, the
jihadist group that controls a swath of Syrian and Iraqi territory and
threatens the semi-autonomous Kurdish region in northern Iraq as well as
Lebanon.

Egypt’s effort to exploit the Cairo ceasefire talks to its
and Israel’s advantage is a reflection of a successful Israeli diplomatic
effort over the past year to convince Al Sisi that they share common interests.
A report in The Wall Street Journal suggests that if anything Al Sisi is more
hard line towards Hamas than the Israelis themselves.

The paper quoted Israeli officials as worrying that Egypt’s
closure of tunnels leading from Gaza to the Sinai that with the blockade were
crucial for the delivery of badly needed civilian supplies without offering the
Palestinians an alternative supply line could backfire. “They were actually
suffocating Gaza too much,” the Journal quoted an Israeli official as saying.
While Egypt seems bent on effectively destroying Hamas, Israel wants to see a
severely weakened Hamas that is nonetheless capable of controlling more
militant groups in Gaza. Egyptian attitudes toward Gaza are highlighted by the
fact that Egypt since the toppling of Morsi has accused Hamas of conspiring
with Morsi and the Brotherhood against the Egyptian state. In fact, some of the
charges being levelled against Morsi in legal proceedings in Egypt involve
Hamas.

A senior Israeli official, General Amos Gilad, the Israeli
defence ministry’s director of policy and political-military relations, who
played a key role in forging the Israeli-Egyptian alliance, hinted at the two
countries’ close cooperation during a recent visit to Singapore. “Everything is
underground, nothing is public. But our security cooperation with Egypt and the
Gulf states is unique. This is the best period of security and diplomatic
relations with the Arabs. Relations with Egypt have improved dramatically,”
Gilad said.

It is a cooperation that in the short-term allows Israel to
proceed with its military effort to soften Hamas in the hope that it will be
able to dictate terms for a halt to the fighting. It could also allow Hamas and
Israel to observe an undeclared ceasefire. In the medium-term however, it is a
strategy that is likely to backfire given the newly found resilience among
Palestinians based on their military performance over the past month.
Palestinians realize that they are in no position to defeat Israel militarily.
They don’t need to as long as they stand their ground. Politically, the war in
Gaza despite Egyptian support, is likely to go down in history as one of
Israel’s most significant setbacks.

James M.
Dorsey is a senior fellow at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
as Nanyang Technological University in Singapore, co-director of the Institute
of Fan Culture of the University of Würzburg and the author of the blog, The Turbulent World of Middle East Soccer, and a forthcoming book with the
same title.

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About Me

James M DorseyWelcome to The Turbulent World of Middle East Soccer by James M. Dorsey, a senior fellow at Nanyang Technological University’s S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies. Soccer in the Middle East and North Africa is played as much on as off the pitch. Stadiums are a symbol of the battle for political freedom; economic opportunity; ethnic, religious and national identity; and gender rights. Alongside the mosque, the stadium was until the Arab revolt erupted in late 2010 the only alternative public space for venting pent-up anger and frustration. It was the training ground in countries like Egypt and Tunisia where militant fans prepared for a day in which their organization and street battle experience would serve them in the showdown with autocratic rulers. Soccer has its own unique thrill – a high-stakes game of cat and mouse between militants and security forces and a struggle for a trophy grander than the FIFA World Cup: the future of a region. This blog explores the role of soccer at a time of transition from autocratic rule to a more open society. It also features James’s daily political comment on the region’s developments. Contact: incoherentblog@gmail.comView my complete profile