Environmental Modeling to Support Management and Forecasting

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2016 Gulf hypoxia forecast released

Similar to last year, an average level of spring nitrogen loading from the Mississippi River, coupled with typical flow and wind patterns, is leading to an average forecast of hypoxic area and volume for the northern Gulf of Mexico. An ensemble of models has predicted a ‘Dead Zone’ between 8,300 and 22,300 sq km (90% predictive interval). The best estimate from the Obenour et al. model is 14,700 sq km.