Peru Trade Balance

Peru: Exports contract sharply in January

March 11, 2013

In January, the trade balance showed a USD 484 million deficit, which contrasted the USD 684 million surplus observed in the same month last year. As a result, in 12 months up to January, the trade surplus narrowed to USD 3.4 billion from USD 4.5 billion in December, and marked the lowest level since August 2009.

Exports contracted 18.2% over the same month last year (December: -14.3% year-on-year), which represents the sharpest fall since August 2009. As a result, the 12-month moving sum of exports fell 4.1%, which marks the first negative reading since February 2010.

Meanwhile, imports expanded a brisk 13.4% in January, which contrasted the 3.2% contraction observed in December. The result prompted the 12-month sum of imports to January to increase 10.8% (December: +11.5% yoy).

The Central Bank expects exports to grow 5.7% in 2013, before accelerating to 12.8% in 2014. LatinFocus Consensus Forecast panellists see exports growing 8.8% this year, before accelerating to 9.6% in 2014.

Peru’s trade balance recorded a USD 1.1 billion surplus in December, a substantial increase from November’s USD 588 million surplus and matching the USD 1.1 billion surplus recorded in the same month of last year.
Growth in exports moderated considerably in December, decelerating to 7.3% year-on-year from November’s 21.4% expansion.