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For London Mayor Joe Fontana, the stakes are high. And for the city, the implications loom large as the wily political survivor confronts a judge Monday to face fraud, forgery and breach of trust charges linked to his days as Liberal MP.

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Arguably the biggest political decision in recent London history will be made by an out-of-town judge without an ounce of input from taxpayers, city staff or elected councillors.

There really is no overstating it: When the criminal trial of Mayor Joe Fontana opens Monday morning, 370,000 sets of eyes will be trained on the London courthouse, where a three-decade political career and city hall’s future hang in the balance.

“(I’m) curious to see, even if he’s exonerated, whether Joe Fontana is going to survive this politically,” said Martin Horak, the head of Western University’s local government program.

“He’s a remarkable political survivor, so I think that he might.”

Fontana, 64 years old and three decades into perhaps the most successful career of any London politician, is indeed a survivor.

In late 2012, the RCMP charged Fontana with breach of trust by a public official, uttering forged documents and fraud under $5,000. The charges — none has been proven in court, and will be tried next week — relate to the use of a $1,700 cheque from Public Works Canada that was used to pay for his son’s wedding reception in 2005, when Fontana was a Liberal MP and cabinet minister.

The fallout was stunning, culminating with council debating whether to ask Fontana to step aside until the case was settled (a politician can hold office in Ontario while facing charges). But council voted 8-6 against asking him to leave. Fontana held on.

A conviction, one politician predicts, would result in another palace coup on the council floor.

“If the mayor was convicted, I hope he would do the right thing and step aside on his own,” Coun. Joni Baechler said Friday. “But if he won’t, I would be requesting that he do so.

“It would speak to the issue of public trust, and that, I think, is an important principle.”

Though a slim majority of the 14-member council voted against asking Fontana to leave in December 2012, the dynamics are different now. In particular, Joe Swan and Denise Brown — who backed him then — may view things differently post-trial.

But to be clear, there is no forcing out a politician who’s been convicted of a crime. Even seeking re-election, as Fontana has suggested he will do, is allowed under Ontario’s Municipal Act.

Only if put behind bars, even for one day, is a sitting politician forced to resign.

The implications for this fall’s mayoral race are huge.

All things being equal, even some of Fontana’s biggest critics will tell you that, at this point, they believe he would beat Matt Brown, the rookie councillor who’s seen as the only legitimate mayoral opponent yet.

But if a re-election run doesn’t materialize, the field opens up dramatically — and there’s no telling how many serious contenders could be on the ballot by Oct. 27.

(Swan recently told The Free Press he’s at least mulling a run.)

It could really be anyone’s game.

In a broader sense, the trial also represents a troubling time for London as a city, with widespread media coverage likely to bring unwanted negative attention. But just how extensive will the coverage be outside London?

It’s important to remember the charges date back to Fontana’s time not as a municipal mayor, but as a Liberal MP. When he was charged in late 2012 the coverage in the nation’s capital was extensive, so it’s unlikely the Parliament Hill press corps will ignore the trial.

But will the trial, regardless of the outcome, really damage London’s image nationally?

One veteran observer from Toronto doubts it.

“I can’t pay attention to it if I don’t see it” in the media, said Nelson Wiseman, a University of Toronto political scientist. “Since (the charges) it hasn’t been a story outside of London. There will be extensive (trial) coverage in London. I don’t know if there will be extensive coverage outside London.”

Fontana, who has maintained his innocence, did not respond to a request for comment Friday.

A Timmins native, Fontana is a self-made success who first entered politics in 1978 by riding his opposition to a proposed prison in east London to a city council seat. A decade later, he was elected MP under the Liberal banner.

He spent 18 years on Parliament Hill, rising to the pinnacle of political power by earning a spot, though brief, in Paul Martin’s cabinet. He then resigned in 2006 to wage an ill-fated run for London mayor.

After keeping a low profile for a few years, he unexpectedly ran again in 2010 and upset rival Anne Marie DeCicco-Best, the longest-serving mayor in London’s history.

Fontana’s political career had come full circle: From a council seat in 1978, to the city’s top political job more than 30 years later.

And now, the trial looms.

The stakes are high. The political implications — for both Fontana and the city he leads — are huge.

Mayor Joseph (Joe) Frank Fontana, 64, an 18-year former Liberal MP first elected in 1988 and who served in Paul Martin’s cabinet as labour minister. Elected mayor in 2010, he continues in that job while on trial.

THE CROWN

Assistant Crown attorney Tim Zuber of London, former federal drug prosecutor, part of the Project Octagon team that prosecuted six Bandidos bikers found guilty of murdering eight of their own.

Assistant Crown attorney Joe Perfetto, based in London, formerly in Sarnia and a member of the Project Octagon prosecution team.

THE DEFENCE

Gord Cudmore, veteran London lawyer and legal commentator. High-profile cases he’s worked include several murder cases. He was lampooned by CBC-TV’s This Hour Has 22 Minutes for his frequent interruptions of “Don’t answer that,” at Fontana’s news conference about the charges.

Jim Dean, former London police officer who jumped to law after 20 years in a uniform and joined Cudmore’s office in 2012.

THE JUDGE

Superior Court Justice Bruce Thomas, based in Windsor, formerly a Chatham criminal lawyer and Ontario Court justice. Not his first foray into London cases with political overtones: He oversaw the jury trial of Tim Best, the husband of former mayor Anne Marie DeCicco-Best, who was found guilty of impaired driving causing bodily harm, dangerous driving and failing to remain at an accident in 2011.

THE COURTROOM

Courtroom No. 19, 11th floor, London courthouse, a mid-sized court with seating for 50 to 60.

NATIONAL INTEREST

Expect plenty. It’s not just a curiosity involving the mayor of a mid-sized city. Fontana has a long political shadow that reaches back to Ottawa as a longtime former MP and cabinet minister.