http://www.jewishworldreview.com --
THE PERCEPTION that the Bush campaign is in some kind of trouble is the media focus of the
week. It has been fueled by Gore’s post-convention bounce in the polls, by Bush’s stage whisper
about a New York Times reporter, and by inflated gripings from some disgruntled souls at the RNC.
Of the latter, the most pointed comment came from former Florida chairman Tom Slade: “There’s
not a single one of us that’s not discouraged. We had a 15-20 point lead. We were just whistling
down the street, and now we’re whistling past the graveyard.” Bill Kristol, ABC pundit and former
Quayle chief of staff, described Republicans as “Worried, verging on panic. It’s been a big
deterioration pretty fast.”

Conservatives, of course, are prone to fatalism and
expectations of defeat. At no time, moreover, has the
tropism been more pronounced than in an era in which a
man they look on as a criminal reprobate has beaten
them from pillar to post in the polls. It is a good rule of
thumb, on the other hand, to be wary of quotable sound
bites under any circumstances. It’s true, of course, that Republicans are nervous. Poll reversals in
swing states like Florida and Pennsylvania will ratchet up anxieties any time. But to jump from a few
such wobbles to dire conclusions about the future of the race, or the state of the campaign, is to
succumb to wishful thinking or to a misreading of the pre-convention polls, which showed Bush in the
lead.

As someone who made that mistake on the eve of the Democratic convention (and in a Salon
column no less), I am willy-nilly the pundit on the spot to explain why this should not be a cause for
concern. This happens to be even truer than would otherwise be the case, because I had a ringside
seat at the Republican convention, weeks before Gore’s surge in the polls. As a result, I had reason
to know that as far as the Bush team was concerned, the polls showing their candidate ahead were
inflated and would shortly be brought back to earth.

As a member of the Bush Finance Committee, and as someone working with Tom DeLay and Roy
Blunt to re-elect the House Republican majority, I was present at two separate meetings where chief
Bush strategist Karl Rove walked us through the electoral map and laid out his vision of the months
to come. At the time, Bush was leading in the polls by around 9%, and Rove predicted that he would
leave Philadelphia with somewhere between 9 and 16%, which he did.

The Bush “bump” would be modest, Rove explained, because conventions historically consolidate the
party base. But Bush already had his base (the polls showed him with 92% of the Republican vote).
Rove said that Gore, on the other hand, would get a large bump, and would come out of the Los
Angeles convention up 6% or even more. The reason was that the pre-convention polls showed Gore
with only 77% of registered Democrats in tow. Rove concluded by saying that the race, Rove said,
would start in earnest after Labor Day when he expected that it would be a “dead heat.” And then it
would go down to the wire.

So there is one certain thing, at least, in a contest where nothing else can be taken for granted. The
Bush team was planning two months ago for the race we actually have now.

How does this contest shape up? It may not sit too well to say so, but much of the analysis I gave in
August still stands. “By embracing the ‘concern’ issues of social security, education, and healthcare
(I wrote), the Bush campaign…[has] neutralized the Democrats’ traditional advantage …” Gore’s
problem, I said, was that he had to move left and center at the same time. To be fair, he has done
that successfully so far. One week he is the defender of “working families,” the next week the
champion of “middle class families.” And in all weeks he is promising as many things to as many
constituencies as he can fit into one mouthful. As a result, by some estimates, the programs he has
already promised add up to more than the surplus itself.

This is now going to be the crux of his problem. Democrats have been saying all along that while
Bush may have won the popularity contest, when issues get put on the table, it will be their man who
has the edge. Dick Morris - a strategist not thrown by the predictable shift in recent polls - last week
outlined how the Bush campaign has plotted to meet this challenge - by laying out the details of its
own “issue” stands: “One by one, George W. Bush is stealing Al Gore’s issues. Just like he should be
doing. His larceny may not show in the polls each week, but the pattern will help assure him victory if
he continues it, because it will take away Gore’s capacity to campaign.”

There is another factor that can work against Gore. And that is the ability of the Bush campaign to
make the “issues” into emblems of Gore’s character. The Bush campaign’s issue-ads are pointedly
logged on a website at www.gorewillsayanything.com. Promising too much, for example, is
characteristic of a man who will say anything to get elected. Here is the text of a Bush ad running in
the battleground states that responds to Gore’s attacks on Bush over the environment, one of Gore’s
strongest issues: “More negative attacks from Al Gore. The truth: George Bush is cleaning up Texas.
The Environmental Protection Agency reports that Texas leads America in reducing toxic pollution.
And Al Gore? Gore has allowed mining companies to mine zinc from his property. They’ve been
cited for polluting the source of local drinking water. All the while, Gore’s made half a million dollars
from mining royalties. Even on the environment, Al Gore says one thing but does another.”

And that’s the environmental issue! On campaign finance reform, the Bush team has a new attack
ad that shows Al Gore’s got an even bigger problem - and it’s the same one! “Al Gore is promising
campaign finance reform. Can I believe him? Because of Gore’s last fund-raising campaign, 22
people have been indicted, 12 convicted, 70 took the Fifth Amendment and 18 witnesses fled the
country.”

It’s the character, stupid. This is not a matter of clever spin or personal attack. It’s a matter of
record - of Al Gore’s record as one of the most calculating and manipulative and hypocritical figures
in American politics. Over the years he has strained to be too many things to too many people. Now
the national spotlight is on him, and if the Bush team maintains a steady aim, there is no place for
Gore to run or
hide.

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