Manchin signals stronger interest in W.Va. gov run

Sen. Joe Manchin commissioned a private poll that shows him running away with the governor’s race in West Virginia, the most serious sign yet that the moderate Democrat may leave the Senate to seek another term in Charleston.

Manchin, who served as governor for five years before joining the Senate in 2010, would defeat the state’s GOP attorney general, Patrick Morrisey, in a head-to-head matchup by 30 points, according to a polling memo provided to POLITICO. The poll, conducted by the Democratic firm Global Strategy Group, found Manchin with a 66 percent approval rating, compared with a 25 percent favorable rating for Morrisey. Two other potential GOP candidates — Rep. David McKinley and Bill Cole, president of the state Senate — have low name recognition and would start off at a steep disadvantage, the poll says.

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Manchin said in an interview that he is still seriously weighing a run for governor in 2016, a decision he won’t make until Memorial Day. Leaving the Senate would give Republicans a prime opportunity to pick up a seat, given the state’s sharply conservative tilt in the Obama era, potentially affecting the balance of power in a narrowly divided chamber.

“There’s no doubt about it,” Manchin said, when asked whether President Barack Obama has pushed the state’s politics to the right. “He’s made it much more difficult for a Democrat in West Virginia. If that wasn’t the case and weren’t the facts, then why would everyone use his name and his picture every time to run against a Democrat?”

While the poll figures could give Manchin new confidence to leave his Senate seat in favor of a 2016 run for West Virginia governor, they also could give him a political argument to stay in Washington. He could push back against accusations that he decided against a gubernatorial bid because of fear he would lose the race.

It is unclear which way Manchin is leaning. Manchin had been sharply critical of the Senate during the past two years, when his party controlled the chamber and did little legislating, particularly in the heat of election season. In this Congress, Manchin’s vote is constantly a source of concern for both parties, making him an influential player during cliffhanger Senate debates.

“I’m more involved,” Manchin said. “The dynamics have changed.”

But the dynamics of the West Virginia statehouse have also changed in ways that wouldn’t necessarily aid Manchin’s cause if he became governor. During his previous time running the state, he presided over a Democratic Legislature, giving him broad sway to advance his agenda. But after the 2014 elections, Republicans made historic gains in the Legislature, giving them their first majority in the state House since 1931.

Since then, the GOP Legislature has passed a range of conservative bills, including to remove permits for carrying concealed weapons, watering down coal-mine safety standards and even allowing residents to consume raw milk.

Manchin ridiculed the bills during the interview.

“Mine safety is fooling with people’s lives, and you don’t do that,” he said in the interview. The gun measure “didn’t make any sense.”

As for the raw milk plan, he offered: “If somebody wants to drink milk from a cow, go ahead and do it. We don’t bother them. But don’t make it a law.”

If Manchin runs for governor and wins, he or incumbent Democratic Gov. Earl Ray Tomblin will have the authority to appoint a successor in the Senate until Manchin’s term expires after 2018.

Republican lawmakers in West Virginia sought earlier this year to curtail the governor’s appointment power, but a bill to mandate a special election died without advancing. The move — which Republicans could reprise during the 2016 legislative session — was viewed by Democrats as an overt attempt by the GOP to prepare for the prospect of a Manchin run for governor. Manchin, who held the governorship before he won a special election to the Senate in 2010, was elected to a full Senate term in 2012.

An open Senate race would favor Republicans. The state has trended redder in federal races over the past two decades. Bob Dole won less than 37 percent of the vote in West Virginia in 1996 — but 16 years later, Mitt Romney carried the Mountaineer State with 62 percent.

And in 2014, after longtime Democratic Sen. Jay Rockefeller announced his retirement, Republican then-Rep. Shelley Moore Capito defeated Democratic Secretary of State Natalie Tennant by a wide margin, 62 percent to 35 percent, to replace him.

A gregarious, backslapping pol, the 67-year-old Manchin is one of the chamber’s more popular members, often inviting senators from both parties to a boat parked on the Potomac River where he lives when he’s in Washington. Back home, he’s known for sometimes parking his car outside gas stations to chat with voters.

The retail politicking has worked: His favorability rating back home is a sky-high 70 percent, according to a new Harper Polling survey. Those numbers are consistent with the Global Strategy Group survey of 600 likely voters, which was conducted by live interviews on March 15-18 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percent.

Manchin said he would wait until Memorial Day to make a decision on which office to pursue because “that’s usually the start of the season.” He doesn’t face Senate reelection until November 2018.

But he doesn’t seem too worried that if he were to leave the Senate, it would be much harder for his party to keep his seat.