Tropical Storm MARIA

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TROPICAL STORM MARIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT FRI SEP 02 2005
THERE IS STILL A LITTLE BIT OF SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR OVER THE CYCLONE
BUT A LARGE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED NEAR THE CENTER.
CONSEQUENTLY...T-NUMBERS FROM ALL AGENCIES INCREASED TO 2.5 ON THE
DVORAK SCALE. IN ADDITION...LATEST QUICKSCAT SHOWS A CIRCULATION
BETTER DEFINED THAN YESTERDAY WITH SEVERAL 35-KNOT UNCONTAMINATED
WIND VECTORS...AND A COUPLE PEAKING AT 45 KNOTS. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS THEN INCREASED TO 35 KNOTS. THEREFORE...THE DEPRESSION
HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM MARIA...THE 13TH TROPICAL STORM
OF THE 2005 HURRICANE SEASON. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE AWAY
FROM THE UPPER-LOW CURRENTLY LOCATED TO ITS SOUTH...RESULTING IN
LIGHTER SHEAR NEAR MARIA. SHIPS MODEL MAKES MARIA A HURRICANE BUT
SINCE EVERY OTHER GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE GFDL...WEAKENS IT...ONLY
GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED IN THE FORECAST...GIVING A LOT
OF WEIGHT TO THE GFDL AND THE GLOBAL MODELS.
THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN MOVING WESTWARD DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF
HOURS AROUND THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW...BUT IT SHOULD SOON BEGIN TO MOVE
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 8 KNOTS. MARIA IS
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TURN MORE TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH
IN BETWEEN A BUILDING HIGH TO THE EAST AND A BROAD TROUGH ALONG
65W. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH TRACK GUIDANCE WHICH SHOWS A TIGHTLY-
PACKED ENVELOPE OF NORTHWEST AND NORTHERLY TRACKS.
FORECASTER AVILA
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 02/1500Z 21.3N 50.0W 35 KT
12HR VT 03/0000Z 22.2N 51.2W 35 KT
24HR VT 03/1200Z 24.0N 53.0W 40 KT
36HR VT 04/0000Z 26.0N 54.0W 45 KT
48HR VT 04/1200Z 28.0N 55.0W 50 KT
72HR VT 05/1200Z 30.0N 56.0W 50 KT
96HR VT 06/1200Z 33.0N 57.0W 50 KT
120HR VT 07/1200Z 36.0N 58.0W 50 KT
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