Asia

Myanmar's reforms

Frail links

TAKING A-Level history, way back when, we were all obliged to read a slim volume called “What is history”. It was written by a then-renowned professor of international relations and sometime journalist called E.H. Carr. Thus we learned about the “vast impersonal forces of history”. These are the tsunamis of economic and social change that drive history forwards, leaving individuals helplessly bobbing along in their wake, powerless to shape their own destiny or sometimes even to save their own skins. This was the antithesis of the “Kings and Queens” school of history and Carr, a thorough-going Marxist, seemed to have many of the right arguments. He was certainly hugely influential.

By and large, Carr is probably right—those impersonal forces do rule. But occasionally individuals can have an outsize effect on a nation's history; think of Winston Churchill in 1940 or Nelson Mandela in South Africa after his release from prison in 1990. And now I would argue that two people, President Thein Sein and opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi, are having a similarly outsize effect on Myanmar at this vital juncture of its history.

To an unusual, and some critics say dangerous, degree, what has been achieved so far in reforming the country in such a short period of time rests on the trust established between the slight, bespectacled former general and the charismatic daughter of Aung San, the country's liberation hero. At a meeting last August, in particular, the two seemed to hit it off. She praises the sincerity of his desire to change the country—he is trying to get her back into mainstream politics, recognising her extraordinary appeal both inside and outside the country. The by-elections coming up on April 1st are another test of that trust. But what if these two figures were to leave the scene? Has enough momentum been generated for things to carry on as is? Or would others, notably in the ranks of the military, seize the opportunity to turn the clock back?

Such thoughts have been provoked by the decision of Ms Suu Kyi to cancel all engagements and rallies during the last week of the campaign. She was reportedly exhausted by weeks of arduous travelling, in daytime temperatures pushing 36 degrees or so, and has been ordered to rest by her doctor. The 66-year-old had set herself a punishing schedule touring the country on behalf of candidates of the National League for Democracy (NLD), drawing enormous crowds. But it plainly took its toll. And it's the second time this has happened in the last few months.

Mr Thein Sein is not in the best of health either. Also born in 1945, he is known to have a heart condition, and has had a pacemaker fitted, probably in 2004. On the sidelines of a recent official visit to Singapore he stopped off at a private clinic, the same one often used by Zimbabwe's Robert Mugabe, to have a check-up, and possibly, according to some reports, to have his pacemaker replaced.

No one is absolutely irreplaceable, but equally it is difficult to see who could fill their shoes if either were to be incapacitated, or worse. It is a fault of the NLD that it remains over-reliant on "the Lady"; but she has failed to identify or groom any successors, so on that side the whole process remains worryingly dependent on her. And on the military side, with so many officers known to be opposed to the fact, or at least the pace, of reform, there is a real fear that Mr Thein Sein might be replaced by a reactionary, in which case the whole thing might stutter to a halt—or even unravel.

Such are the human and institutional frailties of Myanmar's political transition. Yes, it's been remarkable so far. But it's still very much a work in progress, and still relies too much for comfort on the personal rapport of the president and the Lady. Successful by-elections on April 1st and Ms Suu Kyi's own elevation to parliament will be yet another important landmark in Myanmar's transformation, but the health scares are a reminder of how fragile, how delicately poised, the reform process remains.

Yes. Myanmar will be open, not only politicians but also business people will have much benefits, I will give you a good example, my boss (from Danmark) is now opening company in Yangon and will build plant for sourcing, he has formed a company and now buying prporety and land with Grand Waktu Co., Ltd (one of leading companies developing Myanmar market - now facts here http://www.grandwaktu.com )- even before this politics rise, they were so active. and I see that now is the best moment, people from Myanmar are very smart and intelligent, I think this country will be one of the most attractive markets in 10 years. Now, I see, my boss is investing there much time and efforts to start it asap.

BRIC AND OTHERS It is a sign of the times when state leaders don't stop at capital cities to mark the beginning of their visits but head straight to a business hub or a even a factory floor. David Cameron meant business and he did not miss a single opportunity to let that message get out there on his recent trip to Japan. This was even true of Obama's visit a year ago to India when his first port of call was Mumbai because he wanted to reach out to the business community and ask India for its market. Indian leaders must learn that politics is no longer about shaking hands and bilateral talks which are neither direct nor impactful. By arriving at the Nissan factory in Japan, David Cameron made a straightforward statement - he will promote those who are giving back to his country - and was there displaying appreciation for the jobs the company is creating for British. The Nissan factory is set to create 1000 jobs in all but only two hundred direct jobs and that's enough to prompt the PM to come around to hail the move. Cameron got back Japanese nuclear reactors, a deal for Airbus and the confidence of Indonesia, which is being considered the one economy that can replace India in the BRICS. All in a single trip and all business. In my ten years of being a journalist and twenty years of studying economics, I can't remember a time our PM went to another country and point blank sought more for the Indian economy; except for trade treaties- the benefits of which are far fetched and only symbolic. With the Tata having spread across the UK, never did we see India's leaders making the most of the opportunity and stamping their connection, emphasizing the rise of India in the developed world. Forget hailing India Inc's achievements overseas, when did we see the PM step on the manufacturing floors of Bajaj or even a Mahindra? Not in recent memory. Ironically, the one minister gaining currency both with industry and with global media is Modi who many expect to become a PM candidate in the future. Modi has visited practically half of the companies deciding to set up shop in his state. PM needs to take a cue, given that he is known to be the architect of the Indian economy post 1991. In a world dictated by the global crisis on the one hand and growth on the other, the polity of any nation needs to reach out to businesses and make the right noise. Our leaders need to make the pitch for us globally and bring back International faith in our economy. Leaders need to share a sense of pride with growing companies to help create the Indian brand and eventually ride the same. The world is already discussing if India became too complacent too soon. Have policies and politics both snatched away the India story from its authors? I thank you Firozali A.Mulla DBA

Now you will see more. When you get the seat you have a choice but when you are broke no one wants to look at you if fact we kick the falling fence do we not or shoot the horse that looses the leg, no use. same here but she will be a perfect leader as she has become a hard core like Mandela and Gandhi. When you are in a prison you are a mean person and when you come out that is stays with you . You do not change overnight by gold. I thank you Firozali A.Mulla DBA

When it comes to make one animal, we ought to see ourselves in the mirror. David Cameron has called for sanctions against Burma to be eased after holding talks with pro-democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi during an historic visit to the country. Mr. Cameron insisted that moves towards democratic reform should be rewarded. This lady stayed under house arrest for years, we DID NOT KNOW, now we know, HELLOW HOW ARE YOU MADAM? There is no comparison between Cameron and Aung San Suu Kyi. She has been dedicated to her people and kept under house arrest for 10 years or so, that we know. How he can be thought of as a statesman is beyond all reason. Rik Mayall would make a much better PM . This is a man who flies to various countries offering advice that he is not experienced enough to know anything about, particularly democracy! More money that could have been spent on projects in Britain, has been wasted keeping Cameron and his high-powered buddies in luxury Mr. Cameron, It is perfectly OK now. You see did not want anything to do with the lady when she was in prison. Now that she is famous we must not just left sanctions we must also give her aid. You see Myanmar is rich, the soil is fertile and we can reap plenty from her later. I love you mate. UK has looted many what is the lady? I thank you Firozali A.Mulla DBA NO PUN INTENDED NO MALICE

One thing that stands out these days is the nuke fizzing, failure and the news. I have no idea why we are upset on the nuke’s failure. It failed. Close the chapter. The kid has learnt his lesson that it is Physics and men that count, head is very important but for him not necessary as he is still going to be the KING one day. For now can we keep the nukes out as a failed project? If nothing else, I hope that North Korea will come to the realization that they are struggling to develop technologies that were mastered by the U.S. and the other world powers half a century ago. And just maybe, with this realization, they will conclude that it is probably not in their best interest to continue preparing for war with a country so technologically advanced, and instead spend whatever wealth it has left on developing its people and its economy. That should be Kim Jong UN's legacy - transporting his country into the 21st century by generously spending on the people. The brilliance of the North Korean people, there lies the real power of that country. After gambling and turning it's back on the recent food aid agreement reached with the Obama administration - and it's starving population - touting publicly and brazenly the launch of it's "satellite," inviting reporters and news organizations into the country to witness the launch and report on it, and then having the missile fail and explode in it's face, Kim Jung-on and the regime certainly have egg all over themselves. If it were a democratically elected government, Kim would be booted out at the next election or earlier "no confidence" vote. Instead, the new leader is looking like an idiot, However, he'll remain leader; those in charge of the program and it's launch won't be so lucky - heads will roll, literally as well as figuratively. So North Korea gambled and lost. They reneged on the food aid deal. Luckily, that's all the Obama administration promised them so the administration fared better in "being duped" than the administrations of former Presidents Bill Clinton and George W. Bush. But it showed that North Korea and its new leader are, well, still the same North Korea and its old leaders. They demonstrated to the entire world community that they cannot be trusted at all - no more deals of any kind should be made with it by anyone. President Obama now knows that better than anyone - and he's smart enough to remember, just like Clinton and Bush learned. But I wonder. This is my opinion. The failure is always and has been a lesson to the past failures and the persistence pays and one day we may see a different power somewhere in East, not Korea but one is definitely in the list. I thank you Firozali A.Mulla DBA

Hi!Very Informative blog you have ! It would be good if you will visit my website too.http://ads.com.mm/?
cid=4fd60e94e4b0fa6db841e33c&utm_campaign=ads_mm_lb_blog_gvisoy&utm_source=ads_lb_blog&utm_medium=lb_blog