A warning for Democrats in New York

In a special election to replace disgraced Rep. Anthony Wiener, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee dropped $485,000 into the coffers of David Weprin. The Hill reported that “the House Majority PAC, a Democratic outside group, will also help Weprin with a six-figure ad buy that will run on cable and broadcast television.”

A Republican hadn’t won in New York’s 9th Congressional District since 1921. Barack Obama won the district with 55 percent of the vote in 2008. That same year, Weiner defeated Republican Bob Turner, Weprin’s opponent, by 22 points.

Despite the money, despite the high-profile support, despite the endorsements, despite the history of the district, Turner is headed to a stunning victory in the special election. In the latest vote total, Turner leads Weprin 53 percent to 46 percent.

“One election in one state does not prove a trend.” That was from a press release put out by the National Republican Congressional Committee in 2008 after a Republican lost a special election to replace former House Speaker Dennis Hastert. But as I noted at the time, “In 1974, Democratic victories in special elections presaged the Watergate landslide in which Democrats picked up 49 House seats and four Senate seats.” As it turned out, Democrats won 21 House seats and eight Senate seats in 2008.

Now it’s the Democrats’ turn to ignore reality. The Democrats’ loss in New York City is arguably more significant than the GOP loss in Illinois in 2008. Moreover, it comes after the 2010 special election in Massachusetts in which Scott Brown won the seat formerly held by Ted Kennedy, and after the 2010 midterm elections in which Republicans gained: 63 House seats, the largest swing by either party since 1948; six Senate seats; and a record 680 seats in state legislative races.

The Democratic spin machine is already in full gear. Weprin was a weak candidate. Special issues affected the outcome of the election. This is not a harbinger. Sure. Anything but the obvious.

There are still 14 months until the 2012 election, and plenty can change. But there should be no doubt that the results in the special election in New York’s 9th are a referendum on Barack Obama’s presidency. And if the solid trend in elections from Scott Brown to Bob Turner continues, 2012 is going to end up as badly for Democrats as the shellacking they received in 2010.