Trump is Exactly Where He Wants to Be Despite GOP ‘Chaos’

Trump is Exactly Where He Wants to Be Despite GOP 'Chaos'

If the 2016 Pres­i­den­tial elec­tion has taught us any­thing, it’s that con­ven­tional wis­dom no longer has a place in the thought process of any­one try­ing to fig­ure out Don­ald Trump’s path to the White House. Con­ven­tional wis­dom said that he shouldn’t have made it into the pri­maries at all. It says he def­i­nitely shouldn’t have won the nom­i­na­tion. It says that he’s implod­ing before our eyes and tak­ing the Repub­li­can party with him.

There is noth­ing con­ven­tional about Trump, but there may be some wis­dom in his actions, at least from the per­spec­tive of win­ning the Pres­i­dency. Let’s look at the most recent things that Trump is doing so we can under­stand why at this point he’s prob­a­bly going to win.

Attack­ing Khizr Khan: Trump is attack­ing the fam­ily of an Amer­i­can sol­dier who gave his life fight­ing for his coun­try. This would be polit­i­cal sui­cide in any other cir­cum­stance and with any other can­di­date, but with Trump, it’s the smart move. He has three months to make the neg­a­tives go away, but in the mean­time he’s putting the focus on rad­i­cal Islamic ter­ror­ism. More impor­tantly, he’s demon­strat­ing again that polit­i­cal cor­rect­ness is not some­thing that guides him. Both of these things will keep his base juiced up while leav­ing him enough time to repair any dam­age he’s done with mem­bers of the military.

Pro­mot­ing Paul Ryan’s Pri­mary Oppo­nent: One thing you never do as a can­di­date is to go after the most pow­er­ful Repub­li­can politi­cian in the coun­try if you want to win the Pres­i­dency. That’s the con­ven­tional wis­dom. The Trump wis­dom is that Ryan has proven to be an easy per­son for con­ser­v­a­tives to attack. If Trump is going to win, he’ll need con­ser­v­a­tives to either accept him as the non-​Hillary or embrace him as some­one who will fight the Estab­lish­ment. Whether Ryan wins or loses his pri­mary is irrel­e­vant to Trump. The fact that he’s going after him now and not bow­ing down to party eti­quette will endear him to Repub­li­cans who don’t like Ryan as well as Democ­rats and Inde­pen­dence who want some­one not beholden to deco­rum within the party itself.

Embrac­ing Vladimir Putin: Like it or not, Vladimir Putin is respected by mil­lions of Amer­i­cans. Trump’s bear hug is get­ting him some heat in the press and among party lead­ers, but it’s sig­nalling to vot­ers that he’s will­ing to work with the coun­try that could very eas­ily become our biggest enemy once again. He’s offer­ing hope to the idea that his pen­chant for deal-​making is going to keep Amer­ica safe from any­one who wants to do us harm. As the elec­tion sea­son hits its cli­max, most neg­a­tives asso­ci­ated with Trump’s will­ing­ness to endear him­self to Putin will be erased.

If Trump had done any of these things (or any of those faux pas he made in the past) in mid– to late-​October when many unde­cided vot­ers were mak­ing up their minds, it would be bad for him. Instead, these are all things that he has time to fix while still gain­ing the ben­e­fits they give him to cer­tain parts of the elec­torate. It’s like he’s hit­ting rock bot­tom now so he can vault him­self to the top when the time is right.

It should be noted that I am not a Trump sup­porter, nor am I a Hillary sup­porter. I’ve accepted that there will not be a con­ser­v­a­tive in the White House in 2017 which is why we’re in the process of form­ing a third party to help pick up the pieces after this elec­tion. This is why these per­spec­tives should be taken seri­ously. I’m not pro­mot­ing Trump. I’m declar­ing that against all of the things the press is say­ing, he’s very likely going to win this election.

A note from DaT­e­chGuy: I hope you enjoyed JD Rucker’s piece. Remem­ber we will be judg­ing the entries in Da Mag­nif­i­cent try­outs by hits both to their post and to DaTip­Jar. So if you like Mr. Rucker’s work, please con­sider shar­ing this post, and if you hit DaTip­jar because of it, don’t for­get to men­tion Mr. Rucker’s post is the rea­son you did so. If you missed his piece last week it’s here.

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If the 2016 Presidential election has taught us anything, it’s that conventional wisdom no longer has a place in the thought process of anyone trying to figure out Donald Trump’s path to the White House. Conventional wisdom said that he shouldn’t have made it into the primaries at all. It says he definitely shouldn’t have won the nomination. It says that he’s imploding before our eyes and taking the Republican party with him.

There is nothing conventional about Trump, but there may be some wisdom in his actions, at least from the perspective of winning the Presidency. Let’s look at the most recent things that Trump is doing so we can understand why at this point he’s probably going to win.

Attacking Khizr Khan: Trump is attacking the family of an American soldier who gave his life fighting for his country. This would be political suicide in any other circumstance and with any other candidate, but with Trump, it’s the smart move. He has three months to make the negatives go away, but in the meantime he’s putting the focus on radical Islamic terrorism. More importantly, he’s demonstrating again that political correctness is not something that guides him. Both of these things will keep his base juiced up while leaving him enough time to repair any damage he’s done with members of the military.

Promoting Paul Ryan’s Primary Opponent: One thing you never do as a candidate is to go after the most powerful Republican politician in the country if you want to win the Presidency. That’s the conventional wisdom. The Trump wisdom is that Ryan has proven to be an easy person for conservatives to attack. If Trump is going to win, he’ll need conservatives to either accept him as the non-Hillary or embrace him as someone who will fight the Establishment. Whether Ryan wins or loses his primary is irrelevant to Trump. The fact that he’s going after him now and not bowing down to party etiquette will endear him to Republicans who don’t like Ryan as well as Democrats and Independence who want someone not beholden to decorum within the party itself.

Embracing Vladimir Putin: Like it or not, Vladimir Putin is respected by millions of Americans. Trump’s bear hug is getting him some heat in the press and among party leaders, but it’s signalling to voters that he’s willing to work with the country that could very easily become our biggest enemy once again. He’s offering hope to the idea that his penchant for deal-making is going to keep America safe from anyone who wants to do us harm. As the election season hits its climax, most negatives associated with Trump’s willingness to endear himself to Putin will be erased.

If Trump had done any of these things (or any of those faux pas he made in the past) in mid- to late-October when many undecided voters were making up their minds, it would be bad for him. Instead, these are all things that he has time to fix while still gaining the benefits they give him to certain parts of the electorate. It’s like he’s hitting rock bottom now so he can vault himself to the top when the time is right.

It should be noted that I am not a Trump supporter, nor am I a Hillary supporter. I’ve accepted that there will not be a conservative in the White House in 2017 which is why we’re in the process of forming a third party to help pick up the pieces after this election. This is why these perspectives should be taken seriously. I’m not promoting Trump. I’m declaring that against all of the things the press is saying, he’s very likely going to win this election.

A note from DaTechGuy: I hope you enjoyed JD Rucker’s piece. Remember we will be judging the entries in Da Magnificent tryouts by hits both to their post and to DaTipJar. So if you like Mr. Rucker’s work, please consider sharing this post, and if you hit DaTipjar because of it, don’t forget to mention Mr. Rucker’s post is the reason you did so. If you missed his piece last week it’s here.

We’d be happy to have you as a subscriber. If less than 1/3 of 1% of our readers subscribed at $10 a month we’d have the 114.5 subscribers needed to our annual goal all year without solicitation.

Plus of course all subscribers get my weekly podcast emailed directly to you before it goes up anywhere else.

[…] Now one might won­der the rea­son for this. Is it the Kahn info get­ting out of social media? The other gold star par­ents finally break­ing out on CNN? The cash for hostages deal mak­ing waves? Hillary’s inabil­ity to tell the truth? JD’s Analy­sis prov­ing true? […]

Against a better candidate like Bernie (yes, he would be more popular among Independents than Hillary), Keller would be right. Hillary is a debacle. Trump simply needs to clean up his act weeks, even days before the election and much of the mess that he’s creating now will be forgotten because of his dramatic Presidential improvement.

I agree there is time to fix things, but Trump could have done a far better job with the Kahns. He could have still made this an issue and done big harm to Hillary post DNC instead of have this a week where he is 10 points behind (pushing the whole Hillary dishonesty thing out of the news). That hurt him. Fortunately (for Trump) the Dems will likely over play their hand and the Kahns are not exactly as noble as they portrayed themselves. But it is foolish for Trump to punch down.

The so called “undecideds” are really not. The true undecides are low information voters who may not vote at all. The other “undecideds,” which are far more important, are voters not thrilled with Hillary or Trump. You do not want “primacy” to take place where they shift against you and then lock in. It is very hard to move a voter once they do that.

I’m not suggesting that he should have done that or any of the gaffes that he’s made recently. It simply won’t make a difference come election time. By taking the low road now, he’ll be able to take the high road against Hillary when it counts. It will be a stark change and by doing so in the waning weeks of the election, he’ll be highlighting “Presidential” Trump in a way and at a time when it’s more potent.

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