FLORENCE, Italy — As Italy’s leading vote-getters work through the weekend to hammer out a coalition deal — about time, some might add, two months after the election — the EU and Brussels establishments are in a state of heightened anxiety.

A government of the 5Stars (anti-establishment, in media shorthand) and the League (far right, ditto) together, or somehow alone, is unprecedented. Never before in any of the six original EU countries, much less one of its leading powers, have parties deeply skeptical toward the EU grabbed the reins of power. If that happens, the consequences for Italy and the EU could be felt for months and years to come.

But the appetizer has been served. A surprise election outcome that sidelined Italy’s more traditional left and right parties and catapulted this odd couple into the limelight is disrupting European politics in unexpected ways.

Here’s how Italy may yet blow up the EU as we know it.

EU reform is dead, long live …

If the EU elite have understood one thing from Brexit, it is that the EU needs to change. Two years on, that’s where the agreement ends. Italy is poised to be the nail in its coffin — or, perhaps less likely, a shot of adrenaline.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Emmanuel Macron arrive for the International Charlemagne Prize at a ceremony on May 10, 2018 in Aachen, Germany | Lukas Schulze/Getty Images

With the U.K. leaving, Spain mired in its own Catalan constitutional crisis, and Poland neck-deep in rule-of-law complaints from Brussels, that leaves only Italy to help get things moving again. The 5Stars pitch themselves as EU reform-minded: If they stay true to that promise, it would come as pleasant surprise for Tusk, Juncker & co. The odds are higher, though, that Italy will struggle to build a consensus, let alone a European one, and thus close the door on EU reforms before 2020.

Bye bye, euro?

The chances of Italy leaving the euro are slim. Italian President Sergio Mattarella all but said Thursday that he’d scupper any government that puts euro membership into question. And both the 5Stars and the League have dialled back their Euroskeptic rhetoric of late, to different degrees.

“The European project has lost its ability to meet the expectations of large portions of the population” — Italian President Sergio Mattarella

Italy’s high debt, low growth and terrible demographics make it an unhappy fit in a eurozone dominated by northern economic powerhouses. If anything, the speculation about the intentions of any government with the 5Stars in it hardly helps boost investor confidence in Italy.

EU’s new pro-Russia caucus

When Hungary (from the right) or Greece (from the left) court President Vladimir Putin, or Russian money gets washed through Cyprus, there is annoyance in Brussels but little fear that the EU’s four-year-old unity on Ukraine or Russia sanctions policy may crack.

It will be a different ball game if Russia gets its first big friend in the European Council (not to mention the G7 and NATO). The League, with a cooperation agreement with Russia’s ruling party, is almost certain to be a thorn in Brussels’ side. The new government team would also have few qualms about undermining fellow Italian Federica Mogherini, the EU’s chief diplomat and a Socialist.

Down on EU

If Italians don’t like Europe, then who?

The success of these two parties brings home the changed mood among Italians. That’s especially true for the young. In a 2017 poll, just over half of people under 45 said they would vote to leave the EU if Italy holds a referendum on EU membership (while 68 percent of respondents over 45 supported staying in the bloc).

“The European project has lost its ability to meet the expectations of large portions of the population,” Italian President Sergio Mattarella told a European University Institute conference this week.

While he criticized his own citizens for seeking “refuge in a purely domestic dimension, nurturing an illusion that their problems can be dealt with at only the national level,” he admitted that the EU messages just aren’t working.

Brando Benifei, a center-left Italian MEP, said part of the 5Stars’ appeal is their proposal for radical reform of the EU: “They posed as the Italian version of Emmanuel Macron. The message for Europe is that the EU will have to change its pace of reform if it doesn’t want Italy to become a trend.”

Farewell to your father’s center right

The European People’s Party (EPP) has been the face of mainstream European center right for 40 years, and its biggest party for 20 years. It is almost certain to finish first in the 2019 European Parliament election.

One of the keys to the EPP’s success — that it operates as a big tent — is starting to become a liability.

Internal tensions have been rising over the continued inclusion of Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, who led the charge against migration, in the same group as Angela Merkel, champion of open borders. Silvio Berlusconi, once tolerated in the EPP for his ability to win elections, is now seen as the enabler of the EU’s next big headache after he gave the green light this week for a 5Star-League coalition government.

In a parliament deadlocked between centrist and Euroskeptic parties, Greens and far-left parties would be kingmakers.

Macron’s centrist allies are eager to exploit these divisions to weaken, possibly split the EPP before the 2019 election. Italy’s rambunctious politics could help there. That would come on top of the crash playing out live among the European socialists, who come into the election season short on cash following their setbacks in Germany, France and Italy.

There’s another, smaller way Italy’s politics could change Brussels: If Berlusconi manages to lure his longtime ally Antonio Tajani, European Parliament president, back home to save Forza Italia from disappearing into Salvini’s shadow, there will be a further shake-up of top EU posts.

New Euro-populist normal

The success or failure of an Italian populist-nationalist government will have a major bearing on Euroskeptic party results in the 2019 European Parliament election.

With the United Kingdom Independence Party out of the picture, leading Euroskeptics such as Marine Le Pen have been trying — so far without success — to unite their fellow skeptics under one banner.

That points to any broadly Euroskeptic Italian government becoming the de facto face of the Euroskeptic forces in the 2019 vote.

League leader Matteo Salvini (C) flanked by Silvio Berlusconi (R), leader of Forza Italia and the leader of the right-wing Brothers of Italy, Giorgia Meloni (L), after a meeting with President Sergio Mattarella | Tiziana Fabi/AFP via Getty Images

If that government succeeds, other Euroskeptics will benefit, putting the parliament’s pro-EU centrist majority at risk. In a parliament deadlocked between centrist and Euroskeptic parties, Greens and far-left parties would be kingmakers.

On the other hand, if a new Italian government fails, the anti-EU groups will struggle to mobilize anyone but their core supporters, and the centrist majority will be secure.

To be sure …

As serious Italians have long complained, the rest of Europe doesn’t take Italy all that seriously. The markets brushed off Grillo’s referendum threat and the growing prospects for this historic coalition deal. Dysfunction in Italy is hardly a new story. And with the exception of that guy named Benito, no recent leader in Rome has ever proved able to impose themselves on a creaky state and a populace that’s grown accustomed to getting around it. This duo has disrupted politics as Italy has known it since the early 1990s, but they’ve yet to prove they can govern in a way that will change Italy and Europe.

Stan

The EU loves a crisis. If a crisis is not available a drama will be promoted until it is.

Posted on 5/11/18 | 1:51 PM CEST

François P

The usual click-bait headline … pfff!

Except for Euro membership, I havent seen many clear proposals to change the functioning of the EU. As far as the Euro is concerned, if Italy wants to exit, I wouldn’t regard that as a major problem if it is done in an orderly manner. In fact, I am in favour of making Euro membership optional for everyone.

Posted on 5/11/18 | 2:07 PM CEST

peter lintner

It´s not the italian elections that changed Europe. It´s the creation of the unworkable, utopian eurozone that changed the dynamics of post world war Europe. The stage in which we are now is called agony, waiting for the death (of that Frankenstein monster). Who will provide the final push is less important. Be it Italy, or Spain, or France, or Iran sanctions, or trade wars or the next recession.

Posted on 5/11/18 | 2:16 PM CEST

Stan

@François P
“if it is done in an orderly manner.”

Can such a thing be done in an orderly fashion?

Posted on 5/11/18 | 2:21 PM CEST

François P

@Stan

There are two aspects to an exit of the Euro: the legal aspects and the financial aspects. Currently, there is no clear legal pathway for a member of the Euro Area to leave the Euro. As a consequence, leaving the Euro would create a legal mess. If a legal pathway to leave the Euro is created, then it is likely that some of the financial issues would be dealt with as well. Although I think that a bit of turbulence would be unavoidable in the run-up to Euro exit. Once out of the Euro, I wouldn’t expect major problems.

Posted on 5/11/18 | 2:33 PM CEST

Donal O'Brien

Att Stan

orderly fashion says Francois P

Yes it can, but not by Brussels

Why

They need to keep the SCAM going

CHEERS FOR BREXIT
Allways
DONAL O ‘BRIEN

Posted on 5/11/18 | 3:12 PM CEST

Stan

@François P

There was a big discussion the other day about this and the general consensus seemed to be doom gloom and destruction ~\o/~

I don’t think it a realistic prospect tbh but who knows these days.

@Donal
There is a mixed bag of opinions that’s for sure.

Posted on 5/11/18 | 3:42 PM CEST

Irene Duym

Italy is no longer the Roman empire. So calm down, Politico. This article is total nonsense. In your wildest dreams, as a US media, you may hope for this to happen but it won’t.

Posted on 5/11/18 | 4:04 PM CEST

peter lintner

OK, people. Dont worry! All is well. Irene said so 😉

Posted on 5/11/18 | 4:26 PM CEST

Donal O'Brien

Att Comment

VAI AZZURRI

CHEERS FOR BREXIT
ALLWAYS
DONAL O BRIEN

Posted on 5/11/18 | 4:28 PM CEST

Irene Duym

@peter lintner
Luckily, the EU doesn’t care about Politico’s and your negative comments and systematic criticism. So go on and enjoy.

Posted on 5/11/18 | 5:06 PM CEST

peter lintner

@ Irene Duym

I know, EU dont care about anything apart from their utopian dreams. But, if you dont mind, I will continue making my REALISTIC posts and constructive criticism. Thank you.

Posted on 5/11/18 | 5:09 PM CEST

Razzhou Gherghe

A few European member states have made the mistake of allowing non citizens to vote in the local elections. Why do they allow this? EU should be like a French kiss but this is sticking the tongue down the throat. Start there Italy, remove the right of non citizens to vote in your local elections. Give the power back to your citizens.

Posted on 5/11/18 | 5:26 PM CEST

andrew sneddon

EU is in melt down because it has run out of ideas and lost track of what people need, the greedy Brussels mob can solve nothing.

Posted on 5/11/18 | 6:27 PM CEST

andrew sneddon

EU is in melt down because it has run out of ideas.

Posted on 5/11/18 | 6:29 PM CEST

Deplor Ables

The thing that amazes me most about the Italian elections is not only that the majority of voters has favored two eurosceptic and anti-establishment parties, but the fact that no one among the losers (in Rome and in Brussells) has decided to attribute the success of League and 5stars to the famous “Russian meddling”.

Posted on 5/11/18 | 6:29 PM CEST

maciek maciek

Feel the heat, dear EU marxists?
A few comments on this propaganda.
– “Emerging coalition would challenge Brussels establishment from get-go.”
And a lot. Question is is this establishment able to finally understand, it is to serve member states and not vice versa.
– “If the EU elite have understood one thing from Brexit, it is that the EU needs to change.”
They understood nothing. They still push for federation and “values” Europeans do not want.
– Tusk, Juncker, Macron and most of all Merkel they cheat on Europeans. The current EU top players are not stupid, so judging by results of their decisions they must have a secret agenda they do not present to us.
– Possible 5Stars’ EU reforms proposals will be a nightmare to Juncker /marxist in disguise/ and Tusk /opportunist/.
– “…we all know what usually happens when the EU goes on the ballot (see France and Netherlands in 2005, Ireland in 2008, Britain in 2016, pick your year in Denmark).”
You are true lovers of democracy my dear marxists, I mean liberal democracy.
– EU’s main pro-Russia caucus is Germany. Vide North Stream gas pipes, exports to Crimea.
The new Italian government will be as pro-Russia, as Trump’s government who in fact oppose Russia everywhere.
– “Young adults in Italy have memories only of economic stagnation and crisis.”
Euro anyone?
– Italian problems can be dealt with at only the national level.
Look what the EUrocrats did to Greece.
– The League and especially 5Stars is the opposite to Emmanuel Macron.
The message for Europe is that the EU will have to turn off the current marxist’s drive if it doesn’t want to collapse all together.
– The EPP It is almost certain to finish distant in the 2019 European Parliament election. Europeans remember EPP and Socialists are responsible the most for the European mess.
– “In a parliament deadlocked between centrist and Euroskeptic parties, Greens and far-left parties would be kingmakers.”
Marxists’ wishful thinking. Greens and especially far-left will lose, not only socialists. Europeans are fed up with cultural marxism and PC.
– “…there will be a further shake-up of top EU posts.”
Yes, marxists and opportunists must go from the EU top.
– “This duo has disrupted politics as Italy has know it since the early 1990s, but they’ve yet to prove they can govern in a way that will change Italy and Europe.”
To govern after liberals is easy. It is enough not to steal public money, well, almost enough.
So, good luck Italy and good luck Europe.

Posted on 5/11/18 | 7:06 PM CEST

Trisul Kiboko

A lot of hot air and exaggeration in this. Yes, Brexit is happening, but what it is bringing is not something anyone else will be keen to emulate.

I do agree with the Putin angle. The League is in league with an enemy of Italy and Europe and that will be a problem. However, sooner or later, traitors become unpopular.

Posted on 5/11/18 | 8:15 PM CEST

Trisul Kiboko

In fact, it is much more likely that this alliance will break Italy than that it will break the EU. Brexit has all but broken the UK, and now something similar will happen to Italy, which is what the League wants. Putin is happy, but this will only strengthen the rest of the EU.

Posted on 5/11/18 | 8:17 PM CEST

peter lintner

Trisul Kiboko

It´s just a sheer arrogance to blame Italian elections on Putin. You simply just say that Italians are stupid, they dont know what´s good for them, enough when russians activate few bots and everyone will vote what they want. It´s not stagnat wages, rising poverty, high unemployment or illegal invasion, not it´s the russian bots.

Sheer arrogance as I said, which is very typical for supporters of The Projekt, aka the European superstate. You couldnt show your contempt of democracy more.

Posted on 5/11/18 | 8:42 PM CEST

Joke V

Hi .us .uk and other .com”s
Since the beginning; the ECSC was NOT an economic project but a political 1.
Despite what .us .uk and other .com”s have been trying to do : we do not want no more wars on OUR continent; whether you like it or not. And as far as the EURO is concerned : none of the youngsters will ever let it go. It’s our money and YOUR problem. And all the rest you .us .uk and .ru are dreaming of : it will not happen probably quite the contrary.
Sleep tight … and don’t let the …

Posted on 5/11/18 | 9:44 PM CEST

Tony Brown

Trisul

Of course Brexit has not nearly broken Britain. Are you a guardian reader or something?
The eu is deliberately going out of its way to force a bad Brexit in order that we can be made an example of and other countries will be too afraid to follow.

The tectonic plates are shifting however and the greedy eu elite feeding from their golden troughs are concerned the union will splot asunder.

I don’t want to see that scenario, but the eu and it’s elite are in desperate need of drastic reform

Posted on 5/11/18 | 9:47 PM CEST

Tony Brown

Joke

Sorry, but the political element was vetoed by the French in 1955 .it is a trade organisation which only achieved some small political purpose after the treaty of Utrecht.

Posted on 5/11/18 | 9:50 PM CEST

Dr Orthogonal

@Trisul Kiboko

what you say about the indestructible nature of the EU is very reminiscent of the following famous speech (I’ll give you a clue – it is not from the Game of Thrones)

Then they said: “Winter, General Winter is coming, and he will force Germany to her knees.” But, unfortunately, the German people are “winter-proof.” German history has passed through I do not know how many tens of thousands of winters. We will get through this one, too.

Posted on 5/11/18 | 10:00 PM CEST

Stan

@Deplor Ables
“Russian meddling”.

Early yet Deploables, it’ll come.

Posted on 5/11/18 | 10:01 PM CEST

Stan

Trisul Kiboko
“Brexit has all but broken the UK”

😀 We’re still going strong Trisul.

Posted on 5/11/18 | 10:04 PM CEST

Priscilla du Bleu

I take that the 17 million brekkies will fall over dead if it’s actually Italy who breaks up the EU ….. not the UK by leaving.

Insofar, if it kills 17 million brekkies instantly: do, Italy, go! Would almost be worth it.

Posted on 5/12/18 | 7:12 AM CEST

maciek maciek

Trisul Kibuko
You are right. Sooner or later all traitors become unpopular. Look what happens to Merkel or still better to Schultz. Their kin are real traitors to Europe and Europeans know it already.
This is just pathetic, when marxist at heart accuses League of Russian collusion in empty efforts to hide real Putin’s friends that build gas pipes with enemy of freedom and peace away from public eyes. Blaming others for your own evil, a trick straight from a Little Marxist Pocket Book do not work anymore.

Posted on 5/12/18 | 7:59 AM CEST

maciek maciek

Attention Normals,
Filthy blue dementia racist troll arround.

Posted on 5/12/18 | 8:01 AM CEST

Arnold Nussbaum

Amusing.
Not one of the parties, I did not expect that from Berlusconi in any case given his ‘connections’, mentions what it will do about regaining their state from the Mafia.
In Italy it is not Brussels that rules but Palermo.

Posted on 5/12/18 | 8:03 AM CEST

Priscilla du Bleu

Thank you for introducing yourself, not that we already had imagined. You are blue? Didn’t you explain to me in another thread that ‘blue’ in your language means ‘filthy’? What an irony that you call yourself filthy-filthy then.

Fair warning: i have an excellent memory – and a wellworking database 😀

Posted on 5/12/18 | 8:31 AM CEST

maciek maciek

Hit the table and shears August appeal. 🙂
Excellent memory and a wellworking database?
Its bleu not blue that sounds and means filthy in Polish.
Lies, lies and more lies are features of filthy dementia marxist trolls.

Posted on 5/12/18 | 11:26 AM CEST

Priscilla du Bleu

@maciek maciek
“Hit the table and shears August appeal.
Excellent memory and a wellworking database?
Its bleu not blue that sounds and means filthy in Polish.
Lies, lies and more lies are features of filthy dementia marxist trolls.”

Well, the polyglot likes of us are capable of translating without the help of google 😀 ….. and BTW, since we are at dealing with details: ‘filthy dementia marxist trolls’ is quite lacking logic.

‘filthy dementia’ …. dementia is not filthy. Should have read then ‘filthy demented trolls’ or ‘filthy trolls suffering from dementia’.

But you are excused, since you always can blame your mistakes on google translate ….

Posted on 5/12/18 | 12:20 PM CEST

Kris Ramschel von Oppeln

Italy is divided on South and North. South belongs to Africa as well as “5 Stars” and North to Europe (League). That alliance won’t survive a week.

Posted on 5/12/18 | 4:58 PM CEST

Vítor Luís Antunes Coutinho

For quite some time now, the Euro has become a liability, both economically and politically. Unfortunately, far too many, both friends and foes of the European Union have identified the Euro with the European project. It’s time to cut the losses and blow the bugle for an orderly retreat. Germany, together with the Netherlands and other strong currency countries should leave the Euro, thus allowing the rest to take advantage of devaluing their Euro against a Euro North. An economic insanity would be corrected, at a very high price for the stronger countries (lesser for the remaining Euro countries) but with the political advantage that many citizens would support the measure (at least beforehand.)
If 5Stelle triggers that, chapeau!

Posted on 5/12/18 | 9:34 PM CEST

Priscilla du Bleu

@Vítor Luís Antunes Coutinho

“If 5Stelle triggers that, chapeau!”

5stars will survive for a couple of months, just like any standard italian government since decades. At best 1 year. And since everyone and their dog are aware of this, they will certainly do nothing to little to please these temps ….

If Italians wish to be taken for serious, they should start to elect longterm governments – other than Berlusconi.

Posted on 5/12/18 | 9:59 PM CEST

peter lintner

@ Vítor Luís Antunes Coutinho

” For quite some time now, the Euro has become a liability, both economically and politically. Unfortunately, far too many, both friends and foes of the European Union have identified the Euro with the European project. ”

I agree with you completely. I think that in order to save EU, or european integration in general, eurozone has to be split, or broken up. Maybe one day Europe can have a common currency, but euro was created way too prematurely and without any rational or pragmatic preparations.

In my opinion there are only two possibilities: orderly breakup or disorderly breakup. North will never agree with transfer union and eurozone in current form is unworkable and unsustainable.

Posted on 5/13/18 | 2:02 AM CEST

aussie 43

Beautiful things on the horizon – EU co-operation with Russia. Long live Eurasia!

Posted on 5/13/18 | 9:27 AM CEST

Priscilla du Bleu

@aussie 43
“Beautiful things on the horizon – EU co-operation with Russia. Long live Eurasia!”

There was no more free space around trump’s ankles for the EU …. his poodle UK keeps jumping left and right.

Posted on 5/13/18 | 2:23 PM CEST

Joanna Motheroff-Angels

@Kris Ramschel von Oppeln
“Italy is divided on South and North. South belongs to Africa as well as “5 Stars” and North to Europe (League). That alliance won’t survive a week.”
Full support. Secure the North (of Italy), but (in case of they broke through) keep the Brenner Pass.

Posted on 5/13/18 | 9:02 PM CEST

Bob Rob

Well i guess I admire the sense of self preservation articulated in the article of the potential destruction of “Europe as we know it” but it doesn’t seem to be able to identify the cause for this populist/nationalist swing namely the seemingly endless influx of millions of Arabs and Africans and the impact and subsequent rejection of this cultural enrichment and its diversity by the peoples of Italy and most the rest of Europe. If EU leaders don’t create policies that halt and reverse mass migration and that aim to fix the damage and loss of trust caused by decades of failed multiculturalism “Europe as we know it” will indeed come to a rather catastrophic end.

Posted on 5/14/18 | 2:28 PM CEST

John Anthony

Vitor and Peter,

There is no way for the largest economy in the world, structured as the largest single free trade zone in the world to operate economically without a single, stable and freely convertible currency. Without it, there could be no efficient integration of the EU economy and, just as importantly, the global economy. Moreover, having the second largest supply of convertible currency supports the export of very high quality EU products around the world. Where there are discrepancies in productivity throughout the EU, adjustments should be made on the basis of labour costs and government spending. A properly functioning central bank would be an asset of course. I remind you gentlemen, that the US, with a single integrated market of 360 million people, uses a single currency with a central bank controlling supplies and exchange rates. No, Italy will NOT blow up the EU and YES, they will continue to use the Euro as the third largest economy with extremely high valued goods. The article is complete journalistic diarrhea; or in Trump terms fake news.

Posted on 5/15/18 | 10:14 PM CEST

Tom Cullem

The only people surprised by the outcome of the election are people who still think Brussels and the EU are the alpha and omega of global achievement, and a country watching its southern portion routinely invaded by illegal migrants without Brussels lifting a finger to help stop it should be grateful to Brussels.

In other words, people living in Cloud Cuckoo Land.

Posted on 5/15/18 | 10:35 PM CEST

Arnold Nussbaum

Italy is a captured state.
There is no doubt about that and why Brussel closes its eyes to that is beyond me.

But more important, the young people of Italy have lost faith in Europe the report says.

Fair enough, but my question to those same young people is, what are you going to do to regain control over your state?

Once you have full control and the billions in aid that went into the wrong hands are recovered we can see how you view the EU.