Yup, that’s a big bagel sitting right
there. Three games isn’t nearly enough to fret about, but it sure would’ve been
nice to hit a total by now. At least we’ve got nearly three weeks of data to
help us out, and as we go to press, the UNDER is the preferred choice of sharp
bettors at 25-21 (54.3 percent) on the NFL odds. But can the UNDER handle the
golden right arm of one Mr. Peyton Williams Manning this Monday night?

Two years ago, Manning was a member of the
Indianapolis Colts, and his career was in jeopardy due to surgeries on his neck
and spine. So the Colts let him go. Manning signed with the Denver Broncos in
2012, and voilà, Denver is arguably
the best team in the NFL right now. That’s the way Football Outsiders sees it,
putting the Broncos in top spot on the efficiency charts after two weeks of the
2013 season.

If you love to bet on the NFL, you might
feel the same way. The Broncos are 2-0 SU and ATS heading into their Monday Night Football matchup (8:30 p.m.
ET, ESPN) with the visiting Oakland Raiders. And the OVER is 2-0 thanks in
large part to Manning’s nine TD passes. Our consensus reports show the OVER
picking up 65 percent support with a total of 48.5 points on the NFL odds
board. That seems like a makeable total for Manning and the Broncos – if the
Raiders can hold up their end of the bargain.

The 2013 campaign hasn’t been nearly as
disastrous for the Oakland Raiders as many feared. The Raiders have split their
first two games, cashing in both times. QB Terrelle Pryor’s running game (22
carries for 162 yards) has made up for his weaknesses in the vertical
department (one TD pass, two INTs), although not enough to light up the
scoreboard by any means. The UNDER is 0-2 for Oakland thus far.

Some of the “blame” has to go to Oakland’s
opponents. The Indianapolis Colts welcomed the Raiders in Week 1 and snuffed
out Pryor’s attempt at a game-winning drive, leaving the final score Colts 21,
Raiders 17 (UNDER 45). Then the Jacksonville Jaguars came to town and, well,
they’re the Jacksonville Jaguars. Oakland won that matchup 19-9 (UNDER 40.5).
That’s how the Raiders ended up allowing the fewest points in the AFC going
into Week 3.

Having crunched all the relevant numbers,
Football Outsiders has Oakland’s defense ranked No. 19 overall in the NFL,
including No. 17 against the pass and No. 20 against the run. That’s probably
not going to cut it Monday night. The Broncos have the No. 2-ranked offense in
the league after two weeks (No. 1 passing, No. 14 rushing). And those stats
were compiled against two teams that are supposed to be good at defense: the
Baltimore Ravens and the New York Giants. Manning made both of them look silly.

Denver also got some help in the running
department from Knowshon Moreno (5.5 yards per carry), whom we saw torch the
Raiders for 119 yards and a TD last December. But it took 32 carries to get
there, as Oakland defended well enough to keep the final score respectable:
Broncos 26, Raiders 13 (UNDER 47). Their Week 4 matchup also went UNDER 47,
when Denver flattened Oakland 37-6.

They never make it easy, do they? But the
way Manning and the Broncos have been performing, I’ll have to put my money on
the OVER.