Since 2008, an independent look at challenges and opportunities in sports and financial investing, with occasional diversions as my mood takes me. Nothing is for sale, and this not a Profit and Loss report either. They're boring.

Monday, 13 April 2015

Rather unusually, there is no FTL interest in the Monday night games, so we can wrap up the weekend round a little earlier than usual. Once again, the entrants overall were down on the round, but only by 9.89 points, and more entries were actually in profit than deficit. Conclusive proof that weekends are easier than the midweek rounds :)

The biggest loser by a long way was TFA_Raz who dropped 15.77 points and ten places, a loss that dwarfed the losses for the XX Unders (-5.85 points) and XX Draws (-4.68 points). The avalanche of goals (16) in the four Bundesliga selections was responsible for eight points. Talkies Tips lost 4.19 points, and in his own words was already "losing the will to live with these now" so I hope we see him back with more later. The final loser was Jamie A who lost 3.30 points.

The big winner was Gecko who made 7.23 points and moved ahead of BettingTools.co.uk in first place. BettingTools made 3.84 points, slightly less than Mortimer (+4.06 points) and Drawmaster (+3.89).

Here are the 16 entries currently in profit:

Bounty Boys Football Elite and Skeeve were the only ones active this week, with FE adding 2.42 and climbing three places and Skeeve moving into profit after making 3.08 points and moving up two places.

The entries currently in the red are:

Draw Picks made 1.57 points, @ValueBankFooty made 1.41 points, and Cassini Value added 2.41 points which was enough to hold the lead in the April/May monthly competition:

The portfolio totals are:

There were 11 draws in the 45 Big Five leagues (24.4%) and 14 from 48 in the Lower Four (29.2%) - mostly in League One where 7 of the 12 matches finished level.

A full slate of domestic matches on the midweek schedule, although with these statistically proven to be tougher than the weekend rounds, I may have a quiet week :)

The other day I mentioned longevity and blogging, and we have another casualty in Brulati (Bruce Lay Trading) who has decided to call it quits after 127 posts and an attempt at trading professionally. I've strongly advised in the past against anyone quitting a job to trade full-time, and Brulati's comments only reinforce that opinion:

I was lucky or let's better say hard working to get again a great job. For me it's clear that not even the best sportstrader can earn that much money in the long term. Beside I will have less stress, pension fund, more holidays and a social life. Now I know why Sultan was irritated when I told him that I quited a great job to be a sportstrader... Honestly it was one of the most stupid decisions I made. At least I could correct this mistake. The life as trader is everything, but not easy (99% are not successful!) and not well paid neither (when you consider the stress, the missed holidays and so on). The lesson I made was hard, but helpful.

Great news that Brulati has got back onto the career ladder. It's not something to be thrown away lightly, although I can understand why people would have been tempted in the pre-Premium Charge days.The introduction of the PC has clearly made a difference, and I know from my own experience that the markets are a lot more efficient these days than they were ten years ago. Brulati also wrote:

In the end only platforms like Betfair or betting companies make profit. There is no added value in trading sportsmarkets. If two people make a bet, one will win and the other one will lose. Over long term both will lose, because Betfair (and the other companies) takes the margin. In the beginning "only" 6.5%, later when you are lucky and a bit successful more and more. Perhaps there are small exceptions (for example Sultan?!) which can be successful for a short time period. Latest with a premium charge of 60% also these people have no realistic chance to make a decent income. I think this is the main reason why Sultan will quit...

Unfortunately, as I wrote yesterday, markets change and edges can vanish overnight. While there are still opportunities when trading true trading sports in-play, they are fewer and farther between now. An edge that existed for several years can vanish overnight, for example if court/pitch-siders decide to show up.It doesn't mean that there was never an edge - it simply means that the markets adapted. It's highly improbable that the Super Premium threshold would be reached if one didn't have an edge, certainly not from a starting deposit of less than £100!Mark Iverson exploited inefficiencies in certainly the cricket and NFL markets, (we both had different strategies for the latter, but both made money), but Mark, like many others, has found it harder / slower going once the Super PC is hit. Slow is fine if you are part-time though, but at some point your time should have more value.Betting is a fun hobby, albeit frustrating and challenging at times, but I can only imagine how stressful it must be if you are relying on it to generate an income. Even if you have the skill to identify an edge, you know that someone else will sooner or later come along with the same strategy. Make hay (in your spare time) while the sun shines, and the best of luck to Brulati in his future endeavours.

About Me

I have had a life-long interest in sports and after studying Pure Mathematics with Statistics at secondary school, have been fascinated by odds and probability.
The first system I came up with was a simple one - back the favourite and double up after a loss until a winner. Simple enough in theory, and I told my Dad about it. Not being a betting man himself, he ran it by some of his colleagues, and came home to tell me that it wouldn’t work because a long losing run would mean that the bank would be empty. Then there was always the possibility that the winner would be returned at odds-on, meaning that the total returns would not match the outlay. Not what a ten year old wants to hear! Only slightly daunted, I then went on a search for the Holy Grail, the secret to riches that I knew was out there somewhere. Finally in 2004 I stumbled across an article about Betting Exchanges and four years on I am able to make a steady profit. I am at that age where I can start thinking about retirement and anything I make from trading sports will bring that day forward.