The mother of all polls

BSF soldiers at a rural polling station in Gujarat, December 2017. Source: Reuters

Towards the end of his address on the opening day of the ongoing Budget session of Parliament, President Ram Nath Kovind made an impassioned plea for a serious debate on simultaneous elections. The ruling party, the BJP, has been vigorously advocating the idea, the clubbing of state assembly elec

Towards the end of his address on the opening day of the ongoing Budget session of Parliament, President Ram Nath Kovind made an impassioned plea for a serious debate on simultaneous elections. The ruling party, the BJP, has been vigorously advocating the idea, the clubbing of state assembly elections along with that to the Lok Sabha. This, despite the political and economic concerns many, particularly in the Opposition, have expressed. Only four times in the country's electoral history were both polls held together: the very first general elections after Independence in 1952 and the next three till 1967.

The historic split in the Congress in 1969 ultimately led to the premature dissolution of the Lok Sabha, thus disrupting the simultaneous elections pattern. Another factor that deepened this disruption was the liberal use of Article 356 of the Constitution by the Congress party to dismiss state governments and dissolve assemblies before the end of their terms. Given these circumstances, it was not possible to hold simultaneous elections.

Now, it's the BJP that is eager to push through the proposal-which it first mooted over a decade ago-citing long-term economic and other gains. Of course, it's also eyeing short-term political goals, like 'Mission 360' in 2019, prospecting more seats of its own as well as for electoral allies in the new Lok Sabha.

Illustration by Tanmoy Chakraborty

Modi has made it plain that he is keen on the 'One Poll' idea. Barely seven months into his term, in January 2015, the parliamentary standing committee on personnel, public grievances, law and justice had argued for the feasibility of simultaneous elections. By the year-end, it had submitted a report including the Election Commission's views. What happened in between revealed the PM's abiding interest. Soon after the standing committee was tasked, then chief election commissioner Hari Shankar Brahma recorded that Modi's principal secretary Nripendra Misra had informed him that there was 'a strong feeling' in favour of having simultaneous polls and that the repeated state elections (in the 36 states and Union territories) were causing great socioeconomic disruption while also affecting the delivery of important government schemes. By early 2016, the law ministry had asked the EC for its comments on the parliamentary panel's report and at a meeting of BJP leaders on March 19, Modi spoke of simultaneous elections in glowing terms.

In the normal course, the NDA will have to work on amending the Constitution by roping in at least two-thirds of the states, including those governed by political adversaries, to achieve the audacious goal, which many critics, including constitutional experts, dismiss as an absurdity. "For a permanent change in the electoral system, Article 172, which gives the Lok Sabha and state assemblies a term of five years and not a day more, except an extension of one year in case of an Emergency, the Constitution will have to be studied and amended," explains Union law minister Ravi Shankar Prasad. "The change will have to ensure that you can't bring a no-confidence motion without having a positive vote of confidence. But political consensus will be of paramount importance." Significantly, one constitutional amendment that might have to be adopted is to ensure that a motion of no-confidence is allowed just once in a five-year tenure of the House, according to Prasad.

Meanwhile, on February 7, in his reply to a motion of thanks on the President's address, Prime Minister Narendra Modi again pitched his idea. "Let us have a constructive discussion on holding simultaneous Lok Sabha and Vidhan Sabha elections in the various states," he said, while pointing out that Rs 4,000 crore had been spent on the 2014 general elections.

What is now fuelling debate is the realisation that the government also has a simpler option: if the BJP wants, it can get 11 of the 17 larger states to subscribe to the 'One Nation, One Poll' idea without amending the Constitution. All that the party needs to do is to call for a December 2018 general election, when three big states (Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan) have polls, prod a few other BJP-ruled states, including Maharashtra and Haryana, to ask for early polls, and auto-prompt the Election Commission, which could use its prerogative, to call assembly elections in the three states (Andhra Pradesh, Telangana and Odisha) that voted for their governments along with the 2014 Lok Sabha poll.

The prevailing narrative in the party is to invoke the disruption caused by the Election Code of Conduct being enforced for 45 days at regular intervals. If there are two 45-day breaks, for the Lok Sabha and assembly polls in every state, the argument goes, the nation comes to a halt for three months every five years and it would be prudent to prune it to one 45-day period.

However, several senior BJP leaders suggest it might be more feasible to synchronise the Lok Sabha and assembly polls in two phases rather than in one go even if the necessary consensus and amendments to the Constitution are ensured. "It is impossible to arrange adequate police and paramilitary forces for a simultaneous poll," argues party general secretary Kailash Vijayvargiya.

Many in the party believe that phased clubbing of polls will give the BJP leverage. Karnataka is the first of the big states going to polls in April. The BJP did well in the Lok Sabha polls here, winning 17 of the 28 seats and is now hoping to edge out the Siddaramaiah ministry in the state. In December, three major strongholds-Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan-with BJP governments hobbled by anti-incumbency issues, go for re-election. Together, these states elected 63 BJP MPs-nearly 25 per cent of the party's strength in the Lok Sabha.

This is the emerging scenario as the BJP looks to combine elections and hold it towards the end of this year. The hope is that the political narrative will then focus on Narendra Modi rather than local issues, helping the party to retain an upper hand. BJP strategists believe that simultaneous polls will help the party overcome the dead weight of incumbency in states like Chhattisgarh, MP and Rajasthan, and even if things do go awry in any of them, losing these states will be less significant if it's in the midst of a larger national victory.

Analysts also argue that if these assembly polls are held ahead of the Lok Sabha polls, the BJP's prospects are more likely to dim by the time the national polls roll in. If these three states were to vote in December without a Lok Sabha election, there would probably be a repeat of the Gujarat scenario with a stiffer fight than the BJP would like. And unlike in the prime minister's home state, they wouldn't even have the 'local pride' factor to fall back on. Moreover, the personalities and roles of the incumbent chief ministers-Raman Singh, Shivraj Singh Chouhan and Vasundhara Raje respectively-and local issues would override the Modi narrative or branding of central government policies.

Losing a state or more is not an option for the BJP. In these three states, it's a straight fight with the Congress and any BJP defeat would be a big morale booster for the former and could help in cementing support from other opposition parties, especially in Uttar Pradesh, which with its 80 Lok Sabha seats (73 of which are now with the BJP and its allies), can decide the winner of the national election. Furthermore, it always helps to have your own government administering a state where your party is campaigning. Combining the polls and drawing in other states is therefore perceived as a win-win strategy for the BJP and the NDA.

Simultaneous polls will, therefore, allow Modi to make the election campaign about himself in states where the BJP is in power, deflecting from the state government's shortcomings and focusing the narrative of who should be prime minister. Analysts suggest that Modi will use his oratory to deploy the familiar tactic of presenting himself as the victim, playing up the persecution card to suggest that only he can save India.

Also, in a simultaneous election, most voters are unlikely to split their votes between different parties for the state and the Centre. Which is why by drawing in other BJP-ruled states and, eventually, the states going to polls in the following six months to advance the schedule, the BJP-NDA will enjoy a major tactical advantage. Indeed, the only arguable deterrent here is precedent-the last time the BJP called an early Lok Sabha poll, under A.B. Vajpayee, it lost. So now, obviously, the Congress as well as other big regional parties have good reason to oppose the idea. For the Congress, in particular, having the mega poll would be far from ideal given its constraints in raising adequate financial resources to steer its campaign.

The Congress sees a sinister design as well. "The BJP has always proposed this when in office," says former Union minister and veteran parliamentarian S. Jaipal Reddy. "When it was first made in 2003, I had vehemently opposed it. This is intended to woo the middle classes but will not stand legal scrutiny. Cancelling an MLA's tenure prematurely after he has been elected for five years can be challenged in court." Reddy calls it "a stupid proposal that will not help any party in the long run".

Similarly, Congress Rajya Sabha member Abhishek Manu Singhvi says that "the well-known saying that the devil is in the details applies to this rhetoric about holding simultaneous elections. Where is the consensus on the seven to 10 constitutional amendments required to make this happen? Will there be fixed tenure for state assemblies and the Lok Sabha? There's been no discussion among the stakeholders."

Former Lok Sabha speaker and veteran parliamentarian Somnath Chatterjee says that "if assembly and Lok Sabha polls are held together, the state and national issues will overlap and chances are high that issues relevant for the state will be overshadowed. The framework of the Constitution does not provide for it. Very few parties will have the financial strength, resources and manpower to be able to conduct two elections together."

There are also fears that regional parties could be marginalised in the process. "If elections are held separately, then regional parties have a better scope of winning. Simultaneous elections will strangle the scope for regional parties as they reflect local aspirations and issues. This will reverse the process of 'deepening' democracy," says Prof Sanjay Kumar, director, Centre for Study of Developing Societies (CSDS). He suggests that "efforts be made to hold simultaneous elections in those state assemblies which are completing their tenure together rather than forcing simultaneous elections by law".

A CSDS study of 31 assembly elections held along with Lok Sabha elections from 1989 to 2014 shows that in 24 instances, the major political parties polled a similar proportion of votes in both the assembly and the Lok Sabha. Only in seven cases was the choice of voters somewhat different. In another analysis, looking at voter behaviour in 2,600 assembly constituencies during simultaneous elections, it emerged that 77 per cent of the time the same party was chosen in the assembly constituency as in the Lok Sabha (in non-simultaneous polls, the victorious party was the same as the sitting MP's only in 61 per cent results).

Ex-independent MP from Kerala and commentator Dr Sebastian Paul (who was backed by the Left) describes the one poll initiative as "an absurdity and against the spirit of democracy". He points to the incongruities, firstly that no one can guarantee the tenure of the Lok Sabha or state assemblies or the government when no party has a simple majority to rule. If a state government falls and the Union government continues in power, what will be the fate of governance in the state? The Union government can impose President's rule within a stipulated time and delay elections till the general election. "The 'One Poll' idea is an attempt to introduce the presidential form of government in India with a hidden agenda to destabilise federalism and autonomy of the states. It's an attempt to put our democracy on the ventilator and destabilise the basic spirit of our Constitution-unity in diversity," says Paul. Others argue that simultaneous polls backed by fresh laws for fixed terms could be a safeguard against no-confidence motions or the dissolution of the central government midway into its tenure, thereby ensuring greater political stability on the national stage and possibly creating a new political culture. And with BJP stalwarts arguing that it will be the largest electoral reform ever in India, Modi is likely to push it forward in line with his slogan-"Transforming the largest democracy to the greatest democracy."

Yet, many electoral reforms campaigners feel simultaneous polls are a misplaced priority. It would be better to begin by addressing the peculiarities of the first-past-the-post system in which political minorities-parties or individuals polling hardly 25 to 30 per cent vote share-emerge victorious. They argue that the German model of a direct cum list-based proportional system merits serious consideration. "A fresh Representation of the People Act incorporating recommendations and suggestions to bring about integrity in the electoral process and democracy should be the first reform," says M.G. Devasahayam, convenor, Forum for Electoral Integrity. "Proportional representation is a priority. Political parties, their constitution, discipline, conduct, candidate nomination and funding should form an integral part of this law." He says simultaneous elections should come after sorting out all constitutional, legal, logistics, manpower and security issues. It can be "a jewel in the crown", he says.

Dr Jayaprakash Narayan, general secretary, Foundation for Democratic Reforms, says "simultaneous elections in principle are fine as frequent elections have been disruptive of the governance process and also encourage competitive populism including freebies by political parties".

For the Congress and other opposition parties in the states where elections may be called in December along with an advanced Lok Sabha poll, it will be a Himalayan challenge raising adequate resources to run a hard campaign and impress the voters. With a nuanced strategy and 'Modi'fying the narrative, the BJP and its allies may have the upper hand even before the ballots are drawn.

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