Portugal: the same as usual

June 12, 2014

Even if you haven’t seen Portugal play since Euro 2012, you’ll still know the team pretty well.

Portugal always have roughly the same style, roughly the same strengths and weaknesses, and roughly the same chance of winning the competition. It’s no different this time around. Portugal’s starting XI for World Cup 2014 is extremely similar to their starting XI for Euro 2012, and it’s a familiar story – solid defence, talented central midfield, dangerous wide players, no prolific striker.

One-man attack

Of course, the final point isn’t such a barrier to success when Cristiano Ronaldo is cutting inside from the left, and his performance in the play-off against Sweden, when he scored a sublime counter-attacking hattrick, shows how Portugal have rightly based their side entirely around the Ballon d’Or holder. Ronaldo’s international form over the past 18 months has been the best of his career, and a little like Brazil’s set-up (with Fred primarily in the side to bring the best out of Neymar) Helder Postiga is his foil.

Postiga’s scoring record at international level is actually pretty good – not far off one every two games – and he scored six times in the qualification campaign. Whereas he once depended heavily upon good movement, he’s more static these days, but still shows intelligence in making runs to create space for Ronaldo. His stamina is a problem, though, and he might not last 90 minutes often.

Portugal's starting XI

On the right will be Nani, a somewhat frustrating player who was genuinely superb throughout 2010, but missed the World Cup with injury and hasn’t got close to that level since. He’s been terrible for the last two seasons, and it’s difficult to imagine his form will recover for this tournament.

Therefore, Ronaldo has an absolutely huge role in this side – forced to compensate for the lack of a top-class striker (an age-old issue), the lack of a great number 10 (an issue since Deco’s decline) and the lack of a good winger on the other side too (a new issue). Portugal aren’t a one-man team, but they’re basically a one-man attack.

The major difference in the past two years is the rise of William Carvalho, the extraordinarily talented young Sporting midfielder who has tremendous authority in possession. Even at such a young age, he’s probably capable of commanding the midfield zone better than Miguel Veloso, who adapted manfully to Portugal’s holding role, but has never been perfect in front of the defence. Carvalho will need support, and is barely tested in a defensive sense against genuinely top-class number tens, but he brings more solidity.

Providing the energy and completing the midfield could be Veloso, but more likely Raul Meireles. He’s the same old Meireles, doing everything reasonably well without excelling at any particular part of midfield play, but his stamina is vital.

Backline

The backline is unchanged from Euro 2012. Fabio Coentrao may have experienced a quiet couple of seasons, but his relationship with Ronaldo from Real Madrid means Portugal’s left wing is the strongest in this competition. On the other side, Joao Pereira is more old-school – a feisty tackler.

Bruno Alves and Pepe are still the centre-back partnership. Although Portugal aren’t a proactive side, the centre-backs defend reasonably high up the pitch, so Pepe’s speed is crucial because Alves can be turned too easily. Rui Patricio is the best of three strong goalkeepers in the squad.

Portugal lack depth, although Silvestre Varela, a flying winger, showed he can be an excellent supersub at Euro 2012, while Hugo Almeida is a classic Plan B and Eder is a dangerous forward too. Still, Portugal’s starting XI is one of the most predictable in the competition.

Quick guide

Coach: Paulo Bento – a Portuguese international for ten years as an unfussy, solid defensive midfielder. In keeping with that, he’s cautious and authoritarian as a coach

Formation: 4-3-3, which Bento says is in the country’s DNA.

Key player: Sometimes, it’s the obvious one: Ronaldo.

Strength: The left flank, probably the best in the tournament

Weakness: Dependence upon Ronaldo, and the lack of back-ups

Key tactical question: How proactive are Portugal? They could play either possession football or on the counter-attack, and therefore while their starting XI is predictable, their approach is not.

14 Responses to “ Portugal: the same as usual ”

Quaresma is not in 23 man list. Rafa (Braga), a promising youngster, might get some playing time and suprise.

Penguin on June 10, 2014 at 5:16 pm

I still think we’re going to see this morph more and more into 4-4-2. Defensively, it’s practically already there – Ronaldo and the Center Forward forming a 1st line of pressing, with the left-sided center mid (Meireles/Veloso) shuffling over to support Coentrao on the left wing.

Kman23 on June 10, 2014 at 7:23 pm

It’ll be interesting to see what Ghana and the US do to combat CR. I think the US having Cameron as a mobile CB is key because he can cover for an attacking Fabian Johnson (who should be open if CR doesn’t track back). Also, having Jones’ determination and agility as well as Beckerman protecting the CBs should give the US plenty of bodies to surround CR. If they’re good enough is a different question entirely. But I bet Jones starts on the right against Portugal not the left like he did against Nigeria.

Ghana will have a problem if Essien is their key right MF player. I think Asamoah might come inside from LB against Portugal to try and quiet CR down. But the Ghana MF might be able to bully the Portuguese MF and keep CR isolated upfront.

Esteban de la Sexface on June 11, 2014 at 2:29 am

If the US sticks with the diamond-ish midfield, it’ll help w/Ronaldo as there should be plenty of bodies in the middle of the field.

I have a feeling that the Portugal/Ghana game will be a real bore as both teams will sit back a bit and try to counter one another.

Press Moutinho ruthlessly and don’t give him the space to play Ronaldo in behind our defensive line…also playing deepish 5-10 meters from the 16-yard box would help

Dmak on June 10, 2014 at 8:35 pm

I think describing Nani as terrible is harsh considering he has missed the majority of the past 2 seasons through multiple serious hamstring injuries. He’s played alright but hasn’t been able to stand out due to lack of game time. Do you think he could benefit from space if teams focus on stifling Portugal’s left hand side?

Anero on June 11, 2014 at 11:42 am

I really believe that the main problem with Portugal (and you should included in the ”weakness” Michael) is the lack of a striker.Such a talented country,producing some very talented players and still no striker with the same old Postiga. You can argue that Ronaldo is the striker-winger-creator etc etc but I think that if Portugal had a proper striker to help Ronaldo up front then it would have been one of the favourites

P on June 11, 2014 at 12:37 pm

Where do you think a potential class number 10 (Rafa in two years would not surprise me) would fit in with Portugal’s formation?

Dan on June 11, 2014 at 4:11 pm

He’ll complete a typical midfield trio of 10 (Rafa), passing 8 (Moutinho) and powerful holder (Carvalho). Looks good to me. As long as they find a CB to replace whoever ages worse between Alves and Pepe (surely Alves) and a halfway competent mythical 9 they need, they’ll be in the top tier as favorites for France in 2016.

Jon on June 11, 2014 at 5:10 pm

I rate Rafa highly, but I doubt we’ll see Portugal switch to a 4-2-3-1 anytime soon, especially with Bento at the helm. Therefore, I would expect the more mobile young attacking midfielders like Rafa and Manchester City’s Marcos Lopes to operate as inverted wingers in a 4-3-3.

Benfica’s Bernardo Silva and Sporting’s Joao Mario will likely compete for Raul Meireles’ spot in the current 4-3-3 set-up. Joao Mario is a classy box-to-box midfielder in the mold of Axel Witsel, whereas Bernardo Silva is quite similar to Andres Iniesta in terms of his physique and playing style. Both players are more than capable of playing as a standard #10, but unlike Rafa and Marcos Lopes, they are better suited to playing as central midfielders in a 4-3-3.

Tiago Ilori, Paulo Oliveira, and Luis Neto will likely be competing for Bruno Alves’ spot once he retires. Ilori has the most potential, but he’s still quite raw and unpolished.

Kane Prior on June 12, 2014 at 5:56 am

Portugal have settled team and though it can be exciting to see new names and stars, this consistent eleven should do well in this tournament. Even Nani, who has been shocking for United the last few years, performs a solid role for this team, staying wide and stretching the opponent. The belief in him shown by Bento could give him the boost he needs, as he actually performed very well for Portugal at the Euro’s.

The team should look to press high up the pitch, as they have an aggressive midfield, a well rehearsed backline that has pace and can play the offside trap well, while Ronaldo will benefit more from having Moutinho and Coentrao nearer him. This sort of tactic could prove successful against the USA and Ghana, who lack the technical ability in deep positions to play around the press and also a threatening enough forward to push Portugal back. Against Germany I would expect Portugal to sit back and look to break, which should make for an interesting game between possession and counter attack.

It will be likely be Germany and Portugal who go through, though its tough to predict who will finish top. Portugal would then have a favourable game against any team from group H ( a relatively weak group), so the quarter finals look achievable if not further.