All of us are trying to figure out how to boost our odds of walking away with some of the (literally) sweet prizes offered by Tim Hortons’ contest Roll Up the Rim to Win, which kicks off today. For as long as the contest has been around, some of us have secretly held a suspicion that the majority of prizes are tucked away under the rims of larger cup sizes, because they cost more money.

I mean come on, are you really going to win a car off an extra small?

The answer is no. In fact, you can’t even play on an extra small cup (the contest begins at size small). But in an attempt to reveal whether or not the rest of our suspicions are true, software developer Kent English created the website Roll Up the Stats, which analyzes user-submitted data to determine prize distribution based on coffee sizes, regions and more.

So is the grand prize more likely hiding in an extra large cup? Or are your odds just as good if you buy a small?

According to the stats collected so far, the size of your cup won’t influence your probability of winning a prize. Strangely though, small and extra large cups actually yielded the most cars. Large sizes, by comparison, were the king of free coffees, while mediums leave you slightly more likely to get a doughnut.

So far, English has received over 6,000 submissions. But let’s keep in mind there’s no way for him to verify the data that’s being collected.

“I’ve had a few people who say they’ve won seven cars and a doughnut,” he told the CBC.

Tim Hortons, meanwhile, reports there are 306 million Roll Up the Rim cups to go around—just shy of 50 million contain prizes.