The government announced today the U.S. unemployment rate has dropped to 7.8% in September – down from 8.1% in August, with 114,000 new jobs added. Pundits are calling these positive new jobs numbers a major “gift” to Obama’s reelection campaign.

Meanwhile, pundits are also widely recognizing that Obama “lost the first debate” that aired this Wednesday. Everywhere you look, members of the media are citing both as factors in an inevitably “close” election.

But is this even the case? Does either of these big events this week change the election outcome odds a lot?

Historically, not only do strong jobs figures help the stock market, but they also help the incumbent candidate. Economic performance is a strong factor in voters’ minds, and positive jobs numbers will likely bring in more polling in Obama’s favor.

But in the key battleground states that will be needed to get the winner to 270 electoral votes, will any of this make a difference to the actual election outcome?

Romney v. McCain v. Kerry: Where Romney Stands With Five Weeks To Go

At the end of the day, this is not a close election; in fact, this is the least “close” election since at least 1996. NerdWallet’s statistical analysis shows that Romney’s current chances of winning are worse than either McCain’s or Kerry’s chances were in their respective years, five weeks before election day:

In 2004: Kerry’s odds of beating Bush at this point were 15%.

In 2008: McCain’s odds of beating Obama were 28%.

In 2012: Romney’s odds of winning remain at just 10%. (as of 10/5/12).

As you know, neither Kerry nor McCain won the presidency. Because of the way the electoral map is drawn, Romney’s odds are pretty slim – but only time will tell.

Read More

We want to hear from you and encourage a lively discussion among our users. Please help us keep our site clean and safe by following our posting guidelines, and avoid disclosing personal or sensitive information such as bank account or phone numbers. Any comments posted under NerdWallet's official account are not reviewed or endorsed by representatives of financial institutions affiliated with the reviewed products, unless explicitly stated otherwise.

Disclaimer: NerdWallet strives to keep its information accurate and up to date. This information may be different than what you see when you visit a financial institution, service provider or specific product’s site. All financial products, shopping products and services are presented without warranty. When evaluating offers, please review the financial institution’s Terms and Conditions. Pre-qualified offers are not binding. If you find discrepancies with your credit score or information from your credit report, please contact TransUnion® directly.