In Idle No More, Harper faces his greatest challenge yet

Harper haters and all those who are dead-certain the deplorable state of many of Canada’s aboriginal reserves is immutable, will search for reasons to denigrate the prime minister’s latest concession to Idle No More, emblematically led by the quixotic hunger-striking Chief Theresa Spence. They should not be so quick.

Maybe, just maybe, Stephen Harper perceives the extent of the threat posed by extra-legal aboriginal activism to the country as whole, and in particular to his aggressive northern resource-extraction agenda. Maybe (unlikely) he refuses to be boxed in or be perceived to lose any moral high ground to an aboriginal leader many Conservatives passionately dislike. Or perhaps – cue the howls of disbelief from partisans – Harper genuinely wants to improve living standards on aboriginal reserves.

Either way, the government’s actions of the past 10 days belie suggestions it is sabotaging this round of aboriginal talks before they begin. If anything, Harper is emerging, uncharacteristically, as the chief conciliator. How else to interpret news, just before noon Thursday, that Gov. Gen. David Johnston will be ceremonially included in this process?

At this juncture, with Spence herself marginalized by an audit revealing her band’s accounting to be a shambles, and public opinion moving against her due to her contradictory statements and shifting demands, few reasonable people would have faulted Harper for politely telling her and other Idle No More hardliners to take a hike. Their insistence on dealing “nation to nation” with the Crown’s emissary in Canada, as though this were 1763, has been surreal. Can they seriously suggest that, for purposes of addressing their treaty issues, Canadian democracy should be set aside?

But once again, Harper met Spence’s move with a clever counter – not granting her precisely what she’d asked for, which was Johnston’s participation in negotiations, but offering enough to further sideline her as a national force, should she not be satisfied. It will be nigh impossible for anyone to argue that an invitation to a working meeting with the Prime Minister of Canada, followed by a ceremonial reception at the Governor General’s residence, is not a best-foot-forward effort on the part of the government of Canada, and the Crown. Should Spence decide, even given these olive branches, to continue her fast into a fifth week, she will do so with her protest reduced to the level of a tragic curiosity.

The short-term behind-the-scenes winner in all this is Assembly of First Nations National Chief Shawn Atleo, a moderate with whom Harper has in the past been able to find common ground. Longer-term, though, no one is out of the woods, regardless of what occurs Friday. For unless Harper, Atleo and others can craft a roadmap for reform that is much more ambitious and effective than the usual tinkering, Idle No More isn’t going away – regardless of what Spence does next.

This, ultimately, is what’s driving events, from all sides: The misery on reserves is palpable, quantified repeatedly in Auditor General’s reports, and impatience and discontent are boiling over. With blockades erupting spontaneously, abetted by social media, there is a real risk of the AFN and the government both losing control over events. That in turn raises the specter of a majority backlash against a group that is, all else aside, still a dispossessed and tiny minority. Fewer than half a million people now live on reserves. Anyone who doubts the potential for a conflagration should spend more time speaking with middle-class Ontarians about Caledonia.

Harper has gone on record opposing wholesale abolition of the 1876 Indian Act, presumably because he’s consulted experts who’ve told him it can’t be done, without creating even greater problems. I’ve heard the same argument, over the years. The trouble is this makes it incumbent on him, as the prime minister of all Canadians, to show the existing system can be fixed. In fundamental ways, it is unfixable.

There are mammoth structural impediments, not least of which is that Aboriginal and Northern Development Canada has proven itself consistently, chronically incompetent in delivering and monitoring a range of government services, from education to water treatment to child and family services, that are normally handled by provincial or municipal levels of government.

Even the supposed Holy Grail of resource-revenue sharing can go badly awry, aboriginal governance expert John Graham has pointed out in recent papers, if not structured in a way that clearly establishes local control, and responsibility. Many well-meaning, grandiose attempts at “job-creation” in poverty-stricken communities backfire for that reason, he writes. “Caution and humility are useful watchwords.” And yet, resource-extraction cooperation of some sort must emerge – not just for the sake of social justice, but because national economic imperatives demand it.

The upshot? Hunger strike or no hunger strike, Harper’s aboriginal challenge is just beginning. Facing and resolving it, or at least visibly mitigating the status quo, will be a major test of his prime ministership.

I am a national political columnist for Postmedia News. My work appears in the National Post, on Canada.com, the Ottawa Citizen, Montreal Gazette, Calgary Herald, Edmonton Journal, Halifax Chronicle-Herald... read more and Vancouver Sun, among other publications. I write primarily about national politics and policy.View author's profile