Thursday, October 30, 2014

The intervention in Libya politics traces back to foreign support for
the rebellion against Gadaffi. The intervention not only involved
western powers led by the US but also Arab countries with the UAE and
Qatar supporting different rebel factions.

An article by Frederic Wehrey points out that the present Libyan strife still has aspects of being a proxy war. UAE planes in support of General Haftar were
reported both by rebels and also originally by the US as being behind
the night bombings of Tripoli during the period when the Libyan Dawn
Islamist coalition were taking control of the international airport and
the city of Tripoli.
The internationally recognized Libyan government in Tobruk continues
to emphatically deny that there is any foreign involvement in the
Libyan conflict. The president of the House of Representatives Ageela
Saleh said that allegations of foreign intervention in Libya are
baseless rumors being perpetuated by forces interested in blocking
recent efforts to restore stability in Libya. His remarks were reported
in the Libya Herald, the same source that a while ago had reported the US surprise at the involvement of the UAE and Egypt in the air attacks on Tripoli. Even Haftar has claimed that the operation was of his own forces and the "international community".
Haftar is the CIA-linked general whose Operation Dignity begun in May launched the recent conflict between militia loyal to him and mostly Islamist militia opposed to him.
The Commander of Operation Dignity's Air Force,
Adam Geroushi claimed that recent operation in Benghazi had been
carried out totally by Libyans. At present, the national army and
Haftar's militia appear to be almost one and the same. Geroushi claims
that the Benghazi operations were being carried out by the national army
without any foreign support. Saleh requested the media to refrain from
spreading rumours "promoted by actors and parties known for their
hostility to the project to rebuild the Libyan state”. Rebuilding the
Libyan State involves turning Haftar's militia into the main part of the
national army and allying the government with his Operation Dignity.
Expect the Tobruk government to deny this as it denies the reality of
foreign involvement in the struggle. Geroushi's remark that the
operation in Benghazi was carried out totally by Libyans may be correct.
One of the House of Representatives members tweeted: Member of HoR Tariq Jaroushi: Egyptian planes are used in Benghazi but pilots are Libyan.
Even this claim may be designed to cover up the participation of Egyptian pilots as well.
Wehrey's article points out that outside support for different rebel
groups reduced their incentives to cooperate with one another.
As Wehrey put the issue: Revolutionary
factions competed for arms shipments, withheld foreign intelligence and
targeting data from one another, and tried to outmaneuver one another
in the revolution’s endgame – the liberation of Tripoli. Wehrey
notes that at least at this stage the groups were united in trying to
topple Gadaffi. Today, the foreign powers are engaged in a much more
divisive game of competing narratives.
Wehrey describes the narrative of
the Tobruk Libyan government as follows:A dangerous scenario looms
ahead. Backed by Egypt and the UAE, the Libyan government is extending
the narrative of its counter-terrorism struggle against jihadists in
Benghazi to include what is effectively a multi-sided civil war in
Tripoli and the western mountains – of which Islamists are only one
player. It is a multifaceted struggle that is only partially understood,
and for which the literature on proxy interventions does not fully
account.
Egypt has provided the script
for the new narrative with the new president and former military
strongman Abdel Fattah al-Sisi. Al-Sisi became an exemplar of what
could serve as the way to create a strong state and stability in Libya
and counter the power of Islamist ideological opponents:The ex-regime
officials, key eastern tribes, federalists and younger liberals, who
began idolizing the military uniform, the proverbial “man on horseback,”
as the salvation for the country’s worsening violence and, less nobly, a
way to exclude their ideological opponents from power.
The Egyptian narrative is now being transferred to Libya and the
actor to play the role al-Sisi played in Egypt is none other than
General Khalifa Haftar. His Operation Dignity is intended to clear out
Islamist militias. Haftar
had already allied himself with al-Sisi and called on Egypt to use "all
necessary military actions inside Libya" in order to secure Libya's
border with Egypt. Haftar also emphasized that Operation Dignity would
prevent Islamists from threatening "our neighbours in Algeria and
Egypt". Egypt does have legitimate concerns about its border as gunmen
apparently from Libya killed 21 Egyptian border guards back in July.
However, Operation Dignity, has had the effect of uniting disparate
groups mostly Islamists against his attacks resulting in umbrella groups
strong enough to seize both Benghazi and Tripoli and making the
situation even worse.
Wehrey goes into considerable detail about foreign intervention in Libya. One passage indicates that there is actually an agreement by Egypt to provide support for Operation Dignity with the Libyan government:
The Egyptian president’s recent offer of military assistance to
Operation Dignity was explicitly framed as part of a broader
anti-Islamic State fight. Leaked documents in mid-September purportedly
showed that this was not merely an offer but rather a formalized
agreement of military cooperation between the two states.The Egyptian
media has bolstered the narrative as well. Cairo is home to several
pro-Dignity media outlets, including the Libya Awalan TV station owned
by Hasan Tatanaki, a Libyan business magnate with a virulently
anti-Islamist outlook, and a more recent addition with the giveaway name
of Karama (Dignity) TV.
Qatar is accused of intervening on the side of the Islamists with
Turkey and Sudan often acting as intermediaries. Even back in June,
Haftar asked Turkish and Qatari citizens to leave eastern Libya within
48 hours since “those with Qatari and Turkish passports are
intelligence agents and consultants supporting the Islamist forces.”
Interestingly, Egypt, the UAE, Qatar and Turkey were among 13 countries
that recently signed a statement pledging that they would not intervene
in Libyan affairs.
In the UAE at least 30 opponents of Operation Dignity have been
arrested. Human Rights organizations have been outraged by the arrests
carried out without warrants. The whereabouts of those arrested are not
even known. They have disappeared.
With the Tobruk govenment giving the green light for Haftar and the
national army to liberate Benghazi and Tripoli Libya appears headed for
more conflict if not outright civil war. The appended video describes
the announcement of a Haftar spokesperson of the suspension of the
Libyan parliament as it was attacked and burned as part of Operation
Dignity. The parliament met later in another location.
Al-Thinni the present prime minister of the Libyan government who was
then acting prime minister of the government condemned the attack,
called Haftar's actions illegal and noted that there was a warrant out
for Haftar's arrest. Of course the warrant has never been executed and
Al Thinni's government now supports Operation Dignity.
.

According to the Associated Press, the Pentagon
has spent up to $1.1 billion in military operations directed against the
Islamic State both in Iraq and Syria since operations began back in the
middle of June.

The Pentagon
previously said that it is spending between $7 and $10 million a day.
The AP calculation is based upon this estimate. US Central Command
released figures that put the cost of Navy airstrikes and Tomahawk
cruise missile launches at $62 million but did not indicate the costs
of Air Force strikes. As of the first week of October there had been
more than 266 airstrikes in Iraq and 103 in Syria.
Commander Bil Urban, a spokesperson, for the Pentagon claimed that
there had been 6,600 sorties sorties by the US and allied aircraft at a
cost of some $580 million
since airstrikes began on August 8. Earlier, the Defense Dept. had
claimed an average of around $7 million a day for the air campaign but
that has now been upped to $8.1 million as the pace of airstrikes has
increased with the total cost of just the air campaign at $580 million.
Some independent analysts
say the Defense Deptarment underestimates costs claiming that the costs
are already beyond a billion dollars and may rise to several billion
within a year. Todd Harrison from the Center for Strategic and Budgetary
Assessments claims that the war costs could amount to $2.4 billion to
$3.8 billion a year. If the bombing raids are expanded significantly he
sees the costs climbing to $4.2 billion to $6..8 billion a year.
A large
part of the costs are the huge number of surveillance flights. The
military campaign, with the euphemistic name "Operation Inherent
Resolve" involves thousands of spy flights plus aerial refueling
operations.
Drones used in surveillance cost about $1,000 per hour of operation
for ordinary Predator and Reaper drones but the high-altitude Global
Hawk drones cost much more at $7,000 an hour. Aircraft such as the
E-8-J-STAR cost up to $22,000 per hour to operate.
The operations are
not funded through the regular budget but through what is the equivalent
of a credit card with no upper spending limit the Overseas Contingency
Operations Fund. The fund had about $85 billion for the year ending
Sept. 30th but is scheduled to drop to $54 billion this year. However,
the fund can always be replenished.
Other countries such as the UK will also contribute to the US-led operation against the Islamic State. Malcolm Chalmers,
research director at the Royal United Services Institute said that past
experience provides some idea of costs although total cost will depend
upon the intensity and length of operation. He estimates that the UK
seven month mission in Libya cost about $390 million including the
missiles used and flight hours. He said that cost would be in the the
"ballpark" for Iraq and Syria strikes assuming that the UK used only air
power and the campaign did not last more than a couple of years. The UK
has special Brimstone precision missiles at a cost of about $240,000
each. The UK may use Tornado GR4 aircraft that cost around $57,000 per
hour to operate. The UK also has Storm Shadow cruise missiles costing
$1.3 million each and also Tomahawk cruise missiles launched from
submarines that cost around $1.5 million each. The UK has already been
using Tomahawk missiles in attacks in Syria.

Wednesday, October 29, 2014

While the Afghan security forces may or may not be
able to fend off attacks by the Taliban when the 2015 fighting begins
next spring, one thing is certain, the Afghan government cannot fund
those forces without aid from the US and others.

The U.S. along with other international donors
provide 65 percent of the $7.6 billion Afghan yearly budget. The
special inspector general for Afghan reconstruction, John Sopko, notes
that Afghanistan raises only about $2 billion of the annual $5 to $6
billion required each year just to maintain its police force and armed
forces. The new government of Afghanistan led by president Ashraf Ghani
has been more cooperative with the US so far than former President Hamid
Karzai was during the end of his term. Unlike Karzai, Ghani signed a
security agreement within days of becoming president that will allow
about 10,000 US troops to remain after the present agreement expires at
the end of this year.
The upkeep of the Afghan government has been a huge expense for the US
taxpayer. Since 2001 when the Taliban fell and the US-led occupation
began, the US government has spent $104 billion for rebuilding and
support for the Afghan government. Even though most US troops will be
withdrawn at the end of this year, the US is expected to keep providing
from $5 to $8 billion a year for another decade.
A report by the Senate
Foreign Relations Committee compiled by the Democratic majority staff
says that funding must be linked to progress on reform of Afghanistan's
human rights record.
The new unity government of president Ashraf Ghani and runner-up
Abdullah Abdullah will share powers of appointment. Washington has some
concern that this could result in a bloated bureaucracy of political
appointees. The Senate report warns that the US Congress plans to
monitor whom they appoint to government positions. No doubt this will
result in the government being packed with many pro-western officials. The report warns that allocation of assistance will be tied to "specific reforms:
""A higher proportion of U.S. assistance should be conditioned based on
specific reforms by the Afghan government. The U.S. should make clear
to the new government that the appointment process factors into how the
U.S. allocates assistance."
The report also notes that the US should not disengage from
Afghanistan as it did in the 1990's with the result that the Taliban
came to power in much of the country. The US Congress is likely to approve the aid even in the light of limited reforms to the Afghan human rights record as they have done in the past.
The security situation in Afghanistan seems to be getting worse at
the end of the fighting season and as most western forces withdraw. Even
in the northern province of Badakhshan a Taliban operation abducted 17 police officers. In another attack on a prosecutor's office in Kunduz province killed seven prosecutors, two police, and a civilian.
Just last Sunday the
last US Marines as well as combat troops from the UK ended their Afghan
combat operations and responsibility for security was given to Afghan
forces. Winter weather will soon create a relative lull in Taliban
attacks but it remains to be seen how Afghan forces will fare next
spring when a new season of battle will begin.

Nidaa Tounes, a secular party has won the most seats in yesterday's
election in Tunisia. It main rival the moderate Islamist Ennahda came in
second.

The Turkish news agency Anadolu. after examining its
count of 214 of the 217 seats in parliament. claimed that Nidaa Tounes
had won 83 seats, with about 38 percent of the popular vote, while
Ennahda won only 68 with about 31 percent. Mourakiboun, a Tunisian
election observer group, claimed that Nidaa Tounes had 37 percent of the
vote with Ennahda at 28 percent. Officials from both the main parties
said that although the results were still somewhat premature, they
matched their own information. Final results will probably be released
on Tuesday.
Nidaa Tounes is led by Beji Essebsi, who served under the deposed Ben
Ali and even earlier under Bourgouiba, the founder of independent
Tunisia. He is 87. The party is a coalition of former pre-revolution
officials, secularists, and liberals formed back in 2012. Turnout for
the elections was about 62 percent of eligible voters. There is to be a
presidential election next month.
This is the second election since the Arab Spring uprising that overthrew President Ben Ali in 2011. Ben Ali is
in exile in Saudi Arabia. Ennahda won the most seats in the first
election and formed a coalition government. However, radical Islamist
groups caused security problems and the economy has not prospered. There
were large protests against the government. However, Ennahda agreed to
step down after mediation by the powerful Tunisian trade unions, and a
transition government was agreed to that resulted in the present
elections.
An Ennahda official conceded defeat but called for a coalition unity government. Lotfi Zitoun said:
"We have accepted this result, and congratulate the winner Nidaa
Tounes. We are calling once again for the formation of a unity
government in the interest of the country."
Ennahda is a moderate Islamist party. In the campaign the party claimed
to have learned from its past mistakes, but Nidaa Tounes pointed out
that in government the party had mismanaged the economy and failed to
control hardline radical Islamists who were blamed for the murder of two
liberal politicians.
Ironically, many associated with the Nidaa Tounes
party are officials and politicians from the Ben Ali era who now claim
to be technocrats. Many no doubt do have the administrative skills the
government will need, and are also still popular where they had been
regional politicians. While there are many liberals and secularists in
Tunisia, there are also a considerable number of adherents of militant
Islam. As long ago as the 1980s, Tunisia sent jihadists to fight the
Soviets in Afghanistan and almost 3,000 are estimated to be fighting now
in Syria. Michael Willis,
a North Africa expert at Oxford University, claimed that the decline in
Ennahda's decline in popularity showed public discontent with the
economy: “On the doorsteps, the economy was the main issue. Nidaa
Tounes is seen as having the expertise to get the economy back on
track.”
The Muslim scholar and leader of Ennahda, Rachid Ghannouchi, said
that Tunisia needed a broadly based, multiparty government of national
unity to continue to consolidate its democratic institutions.

Tuesday, October 28, 2014

Although 25 of 130 lenders subject to the European Central Bank (ECB)
stress test failed, the Eurogroup president Jeroen Dijsselbloem
maintained that the test shows that the banking crisis in the region is
already in the past.

Dijsselboem, who is also minister of finance of the Netherlands, said: “I
definitely think the banking crisis is behind us. I am never free of
worry, so I do feel that banks have to keep on working managing their
risks, strengthening their capital ratios where necessary also in the
future.”
Although there was a total shortfall of about $32 billion many banks
had already taken steps to cover that amount this year. Dijsselboem said
that the numbers were manageable.
A Bloomberg article gives
details of the banks that failed the test. Nine of them were in Italy.
The banks were concentrated in areas such as Greece and Cyprus, with the
latter country the site of the worst performing bank. Italy, Greece,
and Cyprus have all faced financial difficulties.
The ECB will become
the supervisor of regional banks on November 4. Dijsselbloem said that
the success of banks in going to capital markets will lead investors
once again to invest in European banks and that the stress results will
support this trend.
Another article
claims that only 13 of the big Eurozone banks were "sick". While
analysts predicted that financial markets would be relieved at the
results, some analysts were concerned that the stress test was not tough
enough despite the claim by the ECB that the assessments were quite
rigorous. The test results are not likely to force the closure of any
banks. Those judged to have too little capital will have two weeks to
draft plans to increase their capital and up to nine months to meet the
minimum requirement.
While the tests showed that 25 banks in all failed
the test, a dozen of those banks had already rectified their situation.These banks raised
capital by issuing new shares, or sold risky investments or loan
businesses and thus reduced the amount of capital needed. Neil Williamson of Aberdeen Asset Management said: “Generally
speaking, the absolute number that needs to be raised is not large.
There are still plenty of question marks about some banks.”
Monte dei Paschi di Siena in Italy, the world's oldest bank had the
largest capital deficit. The bank already received a government bailout.
There is speculation that the bank would seek a purchaser. The board of
the bank has hired UBS and Citigroup as advisers to define a plan to
solve the bank's problems. Martin Baccardix, a financial analysts said:
" From these tests we can hope that banks will trust one another and
that there would be transparency. What is more important to see going
into 2015 is whether the banks are going to be prepared to lend more
money to business to create more money in an economy that has been flat
for several quarters and is threatening to turn back into recession. If
that can be held off, then the ECB will be able to look at this test as
an incredible success to engender confidence - [which is] everything in
the banking system, no less so than here in Europe."
In 2010 and 2011 similar reviews passed some banks that later had to
receive bailouts. Many analysts considered that national supervisors of
regional banks were too easy on their banks and unwilling to deal with
problems. With the ECB taking over supervision this problem may be
solved. However, this also will involve less national control over
financial institutions.

Monday, October 27, 2014

Dilma Rousseff, the leftist former guerrilla, was able to win a second
term winning a run-off election over Aecio Neves but only by a narrow
margin. With 98 percent of votes counted Rousseff, received 51.45 per
cent of the valid votes.

Opinion polls before the results showed Roussef winning by a margin of 4 to 6 per cent. Many Brazilians are
unhappy with a recent decline in the economy coupled with rising
inflation. Recently inflation has been above the government's target of
6.5 per cent. Added to this is public concern over poor public services
and corruption within the government. Many Brazilians were upset by the
huge costs of the recent FIFA world cup. ]
The presidential campaign was quite acrimonious with many attack ads on both sides.
Rousseff's party represents itself as the party of the less well off
and portrays Neves as a playboy with little concern for the poor.
Rousseff was far ahead of Neves after the first round winning 41.5 per
cent of the vote to only 33.6 per cent for Neves. The prominent
environmentalist Marina Silva was third with 21 percent of the vote. In
spite of being on the left many of her voters must have voted for Neves.
One 35-year-old told an Al-Jazeera analyst:
"I am from a privilaged class but the poor people who need the
government's help most have seen their lives improve a lot. Everyone
else in my family voted for Aecio, though."
More recent vote results with
over 99 percent of votes counted show Rousseff with 51.6 percent of
votes and Neves with 48.4 percent of the vote. The vote was peaceful in
spite of the negative campaigning. Ideli Salvatti, a top minister in
Rousseff's government said that given the closeness of the result the
new government would lead a "national conciliation process".
While the
economy is not in good shape at present Rousseff's Worker's Party is
credited with lifting 40 million Brazilians from poverty since it first
came to power in 2003. Even so, Brazil remains a very unequal country.
Neves gained support by promising to provide better public services
while at the same time promoting a more pro-business agenda. Rousseff
managed to convince many that electing Neves would result in a less
compassionate and even more unequal Brazil.
Not surprisingly Brazil's
financial markets dropped when the polls showed Rousseff would probably
win another term.
Rousseff had overwhelming support among Brazilians who live in
households earning less than $700 a month about 40 per cent of them. A
number of government programs have helped this group, including a
housing program, government-sponsored vocational training, and an
expansion of credit. Liane Lima 62, a secretary in Sao Paulo said:
“People without much money have seen their lives improve during recent
years.I think we should let Dilma finish what she started.”
The state-run oil company Petrobas faces serious corruption charges
and some of the officials responsible will face prosecution. The economy
slipped into recession earlier this year and this will make it
difficult to finance social programs. A credit downgrade may be in the
works unless Rousseff can cut spending. So far the economic decline has
not resulted in high unemployment.
Neves may not survive as leader of the social democratic PSDB party.
He has failed to win the last three presidential contests. However, the
problem seems to be less that of Neves as a leader than the image of the
party as representing Brazil's wealthy minority. Neves promised that he
would not scale back the
anti-poverty program of Rousseff, but to no avail.
As often happens,
some voters chose what they considered the lesser of two evils. Dingo Bernardo who installs telephone lines in Rio de Janeiro and voted for Dilma Rousseff said:
“My life is stable thanks to Dilma’s government,She’s not great, but
Aécio would have been worse since he cares less about the rights of
working people. I voted for the lesser of two evils.”

Both Liberal leader Justin Trudeau who is leading in recent federal
polls and Thomas Mulcair of the New Democratic Party(NDP) voted against
the bombing mission of Prime Minister Stephen Harper in Iraq.

Two recent polls indicate that a majority of
Canadians support Canada's Iraq mission and also Stephen Harper's
judgment on the matter. Yet, as an article by Eric Grenier
indicates, the results do not clearly show that Trudeau's position on
Iraq has had any negative effect on support for the Liberal party.
An EKOS research survey
shows that 58 per cent of Canadians strongly or somewhat support
Canada's Iraq mission while only 39 per cent are opposed.
As usual with
such results the polls actually show that most Canadians 58 per cent
favor a "non-military response such as aid and assistance to refugees" a
position supported by both opposition parties. 21 per cent favored
limiting the response to airstrikes where another 23 per cent wanted a
"fuller military response including airstrikes and ground combat". The
last two positions favoring a military mission add up to only 44 per
cent, less than a majority.
Another poll by Abacus Data
showed that 54 per cent thought that Prime Minister Harper showed good
or at least acceptable judgment in dealing with the IS threat with only
23 per cent thinking that he had shown poor judgment. Note that a
considerable number in these polls said they did not have sufficient
information to make a judgment. For both Mulcair and Trudeau 39 per cent
of respondents said that they had shown good or acceptable judgment.
However, more thought Trudeau's judgment was poor, 28 per cent while
just 19 per cent thought this for Mulcair.
Opposition to the Canadian mission in Iraq was strongest among New
Democrats at 60 per cent.
Support was strongest among Conservatives at
90 per cent but Liberals showed a slight majority in favor with only 45
per cent opposed according to an Ekos poll.
The EKOS poll showed that the Liberal party still had the support of
nearly 39 per cent, almost the same as the last two polls. The support
for the Conservatives and New Democrats remained about the same. This
suggests that the issue has had little or no impact on support for any
party.
As often happens with polls however, the results of the Abacus
survey indicate a drop this week in Liberal support to 32 per cent, six
points lower than the 38 per cent they had back in September in contrast
to the EKOS poll.
Yet these results when looked at in depth make the situation even
less clear. The fall in Liberal support was worst in Ontario where they
dropped from 41 per cent to 32 per cent just two per cent more than the
Conservatives. However, the New Democrats are the party that gained nine
points, and they are also the party most opposed to the Canadian Iraq
mission.
Over the last five months Liberals averaged 43 per cent in
Ontario polls with the NDP at only 18 per cent. Surely the conclusion
one could draw from this is that opposing the Iraq mission is the way to
gain support since the NDP are most opposed. Detailed descriptions of
the surveys is given at the end of this article.
The next federal election in Canada is scheduled for Oct. 19 2015
almost a year away. The three main party standings in the most recent
Abacus poll on October 17 in percentage support were: Conservatives 30;
NDP 25; Liberals 32. In contrast the EKOS poll just two days earlier
showed: Conservatives 26.4; NDP 25; Liberals 38.5. If the present
trends continue it looks as if the Conservatives will lose their
majority government but not to the NDP who are at present the main
opposition but to the Liberal party. The Iraq mission so far seems not
to be much of an issue.

The Syrian military is taking more territory in
the central province of Hama and are reported to have retaken the town
of Morek. The town is important because it is close to the crucial
Damascus-Aleppo highway arguably the most important road in Syria.

The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights that supports the rebels reports
that the town is under the control of the military but surprisingly
Syrian State media reported only that the military held most of the
town. The town was seized by rebels with the Al-Qaeda linked Nusra Front
nine months ago. The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights statement said:
"Regime troops and their militia allies took back total control of
Morek in the north of Hama countryside, after fierce battles that have
raged" The battles began on Wednesday night and the assault was aided by
air raids.
As the Syrian government has now secured most of metro Damascus, they
are moving north towards Aleppo to regain territory on the road towards
Aleppo hoping to gain control of the city. The regime lost control of
much of the road to Aleppo since a rebel offensive in July of 2012. The
town is also near the province of Idlib held mostly by moderate rebels
who managed to drive out the IS earlier in the year. So far the Syrian
conflict is estimated to have killed more than 180,000 people and forced
almost half the population from their homes in an attempt to flee the
battle.
The war has taken a heavy toll on the Syrian army as well since the conflict began back in 2011. Aram Nerguizian of the Centtre for Strategic and International Studies told AFP: "Defections,
desertions and attrition after three years of civil war saw Syria's
total manpower decline from a high of 325,000 in 2011 to 295,000 in 2012
to an estimated 178,000 in 2013 and 2014," This does not mean that
Assad's forces are much weaker now. They are now experienced fighters
adept at counter insurgency tactics. They are helped also by the
Lebanese militia Hezbollah and by military aid from Russia and Iran.
They have gradually been regaining some ground.
The concentration upon
the defeat of ISIS with US bombing has only helped. Even worse from the
rebel point of view the US bombed Al-Qaeda-linked Nusra Front a key ally
of the rebels in the fight against Assad.
The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights estimates that some 40,000
soldiers along with 27,000 pro-regime forces have been killed in the
conflict as well as 55,000 rebel fighters. So far the Syrian army has
not had any special recruitment campaign but Syrian men between 18 and
50 are required to serve at least 18 months, a term which can be
extended. Neguizian noted:
"The insurgency in Syria forced Syrian ground forces, and manpower in
general, to either adapt or die. Large units were divided up into
smaller nimbler units, ineffective and ageing leadership was sidelined,
and new or emerging junior officers began to take on greater operational
responsibility."
Stephen Biddle of the US Council on Foreign Relations said that
Assad is unlikely to be able to defeat the rebels and take back all the
territory he has lost at least not in the near future.

After Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak was overthrown in 2011, the US
Agency for International Development(USAID) paid several nongovernmental
organizations(NGOs) to begin pro-democracy programs even though they
were not registered to work in Egypt.

In less than a year, Egypt charged 43 workers with
operating in the country illegally. Sixteen of those charged were
Americans. The son of then-U.S. transportation secretary Ray Lahood
was one of those arrested. In March 2012 the US workers were freed but
only after USAID secretly paid $4.6 million for "bail." As the Washington Post reports,
just two months afterward the Office of the Inspector General(OIG) of
AID did a confidential draft audit that brought into question the
legality of the program and of the "bail" payment. However, when the IOG
office issued its final audit five months afterwards, what had been
originally a 21-page report was now just nine. The earlier questioning
and criticism of the "bail" payment were gone along with other critical
remarks.
In recent interviews, a number of current auditors and other employees
anonymously complained about the censoring of audits between 2011 and
2013. While these negative comments were sent via "management letters"
to senior USAID officials, the letters are confidential and not usually
made available to the public.
Some employees complained that
the OIG whose function was to be an internal watchdog of the agency,
had instead become a defender of it against any internal criticism. More
than 400 negative references had been taken out of the draft audits before the final versions were released.
Under the acting inspector general Michael Carroll, some auditors
complained that he did not want to create controversy during the period
he was awaiting his confirmation as the permanent inspector general. His
actions seem to have had the opposite effect. Carroll withdrew his
nomination just last Wednesday after it had been pending for a year and
four months. He declined to discuss why he made the decision.
State Department spokesperson Jen Psakii said on Thursday that the
OIG's draft report on programs in Egypt contained "inaccuracies" that
were cleared up during a meeting with OIG staff and Anne Patterson who
was then US ambassador to Egypt. Psaki said that the bail money was
paid by non-governmental organizations with money they received for the
Egyptian programs. Psaki claims the role of the US government in the
payment was revealed publicly in 2012. This hardly explains why
criticism of the payment should have been removed from the report nor
does it explain why the "bail" was a proper use of the NGO's funds.Darren Roman an audit supervisor at the OIG who retired back in 2012 said: “The
office is a watchdog not doing its job. It’s just easier for upper
management to go along to get along. The message is: ‘Don’t make waves,
don’t report any problems.’” A number of auditors and other
employers felt that their authority had been undermined by the changes
made in drafts that were critical of the organization. According to Jen
Psaki it is standard practice for government officials to meet with OIG
officials prior to a report being issued. Perhaps it is government
pressure that also intervenes to remove negative comments. As shown by
the appended video USAID programs often are intended to promote US
government agendas while appearing to be independent NGO's. As in Egypt,
this can sometimes land NGO employees in hot water in host countries.

Friday, October 24, 2014

In a move meant to ease tensions over who should
have custody of Pfc. Joseph Pemberton accused of murdering a transgender
filipino, the US transferred him to the main Philippine military camp
in Manila.

The Visiting Forces Agreement between the US and the
Philippines allows for the prosecution of US service personnel in
Philippine courts unlike some countries such as Afghanistan where the
agreement grants immunity from prosecution in Afghan courts. However, the agreement also
allows for US custody of the accused "from the commission of the
offense until completion of all judicial proceedings". In 2009 the
Philippine Supreme Court ruled that any sentence must be served in
Philippine detention. Although many Filipinos are grateful for the US
role in liberating the Philippines from Japanese occupation, they also
want to protect their sovereignty after a long history of colonial rule
by Spain, Japan, and the United States.
There have been protests at the US embassy in Manila, and at the wharf
in Subic Bay where Pemberton had been kept in custody aboard the USS
Peleliu. The protesters demanded that Pemberton be handed over to
Philippine authorities. The Philippine president Benigno Aquino III
defended the agreement. US Secretary of State John Kerry said the US
sought no special privileges for Pemberton only the protection of his
rights.
The US and the Philippines agreed to the transfer of Pemberton to an
air-conditioned van where he will be guarded directly by US marines.
Philippine guards will be stationed outside the compound according to
Philippine military chief of staff Gen. Gregorio Catapang. Voltaire
Gazmin Philippine Secretary of Defense told AP: "They
agreed to put him in a facility which will pass U.S. custodial
standards. We're happy with this because he's a suspect in a crime that
was committed in our country."
Foreign Secretary Albert del Rosario described what seems clearly a
murder as tragic, and noted that there was strong cooperation between
the two allies.
In an earlier case, another US marine, Daniel Smith, was found guilty
and sentenced to life in prison for raping a filipina in 2005. Although
a Philippine court ordered him to be turned over to Philippine custody,
he was kept in US custody. Eventually on appeal and a change in the
testimony of the alleged victim, his conviction was overturned in 2009.
Laude was a transgender woman who met Pemberton at a bar in Olongapo
City near Subic Bay where his ship was anchored. Pemberton went with
Laude and another transgender friend to a motel room. Laude urged the
friend to leave before Pemberton found out that they were transgenders.
The police claim Laude was apparently drowned in the toilet bowl.
The Philippines closed down US bases some time ago including the base
in Subic Bay but US troops regularly come to the Philippines on a
rotating basis. Recently the two countries agreed to increase the number
of troops involved. The Philippines is anxious to have US support for
its claims to some islands in the South China Sea that are claimed also
by China and other countries. That new agreement is being challenged in
the Philippine Supreme Court and may not be signed for years yet. President Aquino said of the transfer of Pemberton to Camp Aquinaldo in Manila: “I
think that’s a very healthy development. Previously, in the Daniel
Smith case, he was in the U.S. Embassy not in our facility....Now, he
[Mr. Pemberton] is in our camp. I think they are responding to our needs and our sensitivities.”
Aquino said that there was no need to cancel the 1999 VFA agreement as
some activists and politicians have been urging. Ramon Casiple, a
political analyst said the "key question" was the Philippines
exercising jurisdiction over the case which was obtianed by having
Pemberton in the Philippine military camp. No doubt many activists will
reply that the key question is jurisdiction. Not only did the
Philippines allow the US to force them to find accomodation that was
according to US standards but they also insist that it is US marines
that directly guard Pemberton. In effect he remains in US custody: The
U.S. Marine Corps issued a statement saying that Mr. Pemberton remains
in U.S. custody and will stay “in the Philippines during the
investigation and any potential judicial proceedings’’ under the terms
of the Visiting Forces Agreement.
This is mostly political games. The USS Peleliu where Pemberton was
being held is not based in the Philippines and was there only for
military exercises early this month. The ship can now leave the
Philippines since Pemberton is being held elsewhere. Several witnesses
gave written testimony and also have left the Philippines.The transfer
off the ship is much more convenient for the US than keeping the ship
docked in the Philippines. Moving Pemberton to a Philippine military
base while retaining custody is designed to dampen down protests at the
US military presence in the Philippines. However, Pemberton cannot
expect to be spirited out of the Philippines out of reach of the courts
as was a CIA operative Raymond Davis in Pakistan who shot two Pakistanis.

General Khalifa Haftar, often called a "renegade," now has the support of the internationally-recognized Libyan government in Tobruk. His coup has been successful.

Haftar's coup began earlier this year. Hafter was supposed to have taken over control of Libya's main institutions on the 14th of February. He managed to appear on TV announcing that the parliament, the General National Congress(GNC) and the government had been suspended. He claimed that he was not attempting a coup but "a correction to the path of the revolution." He claimed also that there were troops loyal to him in Tripoli.Then-Defence Minister Abdullah Al-Thinni claimed that Haftar had no legitimacy and that there were no forces loyal to him in Tripoli. He also noted that there was a warrant out for Haftar's arrest for plotting a coup. While Haftar forces did not attack the GNC at this time, neither was the warrant for his arrest ever carried out. Abdullah Al-Thinni is prime minister of the new government in Tobruk. Al-Thinni now supports General Haftar and his second round of attacks on Islamist militias who have controlled Benghazi for several months.The first round in the present clash of what until now had been described as conflicts between militias loyal to Haftar and Islamist-dominated militias, began on May 16 when Haftar's forces began what he called Operation Dignity, as he attacked two Islamist bases in Benghazi. Later onMay 18the Zintan brigades, his allies, attacked the parliament and ransacked the legislature and declared the body suspended again. While Haftar hasdenied seeking power,he has indicated that he would be interested in running for president.A few — but very few — commentators have bothered to piece together what was transpiring with the actions of Haftar. An excellent summary of the career of Haftar is given in a long article in theWashington Institute issued in August. The author, Barak Barfi, has advice for the US near the end:"Washington and its partners should persuade the new Libyan government to appoint Haftar as chief of staff. Respected by his troops, he has the military skills and combat experience necessary to create a modern army. But most important, he is the sole Libyan willing to take on the Islamist militias that are preventing the establishment of a modern state"Another instructive commentary in early June this year is by Dr. Theodore Karasik, Director of Research and Consultancy at the Institute for Near East and Guly Military Analysis(INEGMA) in Dubai in the United Arab Emirates (UAE). Karasik has a PH.D in history from the U. of California in Los Angeles. Karasik speaks of Hafter making small but important gains in his Operation Dignity. He notes that his forces have struck the Libyan parliament as well as Islamist groups. Attacking and burning the elected parliament does not elicit any disapproval from Karasik but is part of the small but important gains that Haftar was making. Karasik also makes the interesting observation that among Haftars' loyal followers are a group of 500-1000 special forces troops who received training somewhere in Eastern Europe according to an Arab official.Karasik suggests that Haftar's actions will curry favor with those who want a future state like that in Egypt and that Egypt could very well help Haftar by sending in Egyptian special forces to help out against Islamist militias. Mysterious air night bombings during the Islamist takeover of Tripoli were attributed to the UAE and Egypt by the rebels and at first also by the US. Recent air attacks in Benghazi against Islamist militias are also attributed to Egypt. Karasik was prophetic. Near the end of the articleKarasikwrites:Will General Haftar be the next charismatic, nationalist leader of Libya? General Haftar’s vision for Libya seems to be already in place and his appeal to a good number of Libyans is evident. With additional victories and the wiping out of the opposition, General Haftar’s portrait will soon be posted not only on buildings and streets but across cyberspace. General Haftar has already congratulated President Sisi for his victory. Will President Sisi congratulate a President Haftar in the near future? Only time will tell, especially with a pending legislative election on June 25, 2014.This would all be to the good according to Karasik since Egypt along with Haftar he claims are reversing Libya's decline with back-up support from the US. Haftar's militia have suddenly dissolved and in effect he is now the recognized Libyan army. He even has agreen lightto "liberate" Benghazi and Tripoli:Libya’s internationally recognized government ordered on Tuesday its military, led by renegade General Khalifa Haftar, to advance on the capital Tripoli and called for a civil disobedience there against armed Islamist groups. Prime Minister Abdullah al-Thani’s cabinet said in statement posted on Facebook that the armed forces have the green light to “liberate” Tripoli “and state institutions from the grip of armed groups.”Apparently, the arrest warrant issued against Haftar for his attempted coup is now void.TheEuropean Councilrecently set out its position on the current conflict.The EU urges all parties to urgently observe an unconditional ceasefire. The EU is convinced that there is no military solution to this conflict. Only a political solution can provide a sustainable way forward and contribute to peace and stability in Libya.Don't expect the Council to now condemn the attacks ordered by the Tobruk government on Benghazi and Tripoli. Most of the document is meant to provide legitimacy to that government. The peace process is all a sham and most of the Council document is rhetorical garbage. There is a civil war which will be turned into a war against terrorism by the media and by western officials and their allies in Saudi Arabia and the UAE.

Wednesday, October 22, 2014

After meetings on Friday between Putin and Poroshenko and then between
Russian and Ukrainian negotiators and the EU Commission over the
weekend, it appeared that an agreement would be finalized today but no
accord was reached.

An interim deal
was reached over the weekend. Progress was made in September and the
interim deal would have provided Ukraine with sufficient natural gas to
carry it through the winter unless the weather was quite cold. The
meeting today was unable to work out problems having to do with
Ukraine's ability to pay for the gas.
The European Energy Commission, Ukraine, and Russia did agree on the
price that Ukraine would pay for the gas $385 per thousand cubic meters
providing the money was paid in advance. While Alexander Novak claimed
that Russia needed further assurances that Ukraine could pay for the
gas, there was also agreement that the group would meet again in
Brussels in a week to try to resolve the issue.
Ukraine is in desperate need of funds. It had requested another
$2.55 billion in credit from the EU earlier in the day before the
meeting. Ukraine had already agreed to pay off $3.1 billion it owes
Russia for gas in order to ensure that Russia will supply gas this
winter, even though Ukraine took the issue to an international court.
Many EU countries are anxious to resolve the issue between Ukraine and
Russia to ensure that their own supplies of natural gas from Russia are
not disrupted. The EU receives about a third of its natural gas from
Russia and about half of that comes through Ukraine. Russia too wants a
deal since Gazprom which is state-controlled earns about $6 billion
every month through its sales of natural gas to the EU.
The EU has
brokered talks since last May when Russian president Vladimir Putin
asked the EU to intervene.
European Energy Commissioner Guenther Oettinger said: "We
made another step towards a possible solution and are close to an
agreement on important elements. Others still need to be addressed, such
as the financial gap. At the next meeting, which we hope will be the
final trilateral meeting, next Wednesday here in Brussels, we will be
able to reach a decision and we'll have the signature of all the
partners." In another move that might help solve the problem
President Putin announced that Ukraine's debt for gas supplies was $4.5
billion, whereas Gazprom had previously said it was $5.3 billion.
Before Friday earlier talks were
described as not very productive. However, after the meeting with
Putin, Poroshenko announced in a TV interview the price agreement of
$385 per 1,000 cubic meters of gas that would apply until the end of
March next year. Russia cut off gas supplies to Ukraine but not the EU
in June of this year, demanding that Ukraine pay off its existing debt.
Ukraine and its European allies are anxious to forge an agreement before
the cold weather sets in.
Poroshenko wants the International Monetary Fund to help Ukraine pay off its debt to Gazprom. IMF officials will
visit Ukraine after a new cabinet is formed following elections in
mid-November. Ukrainian officials claim that the IMF will need to adjust
the existing $17 billion bailout program as economic conditions in
Ukraine have deteriorated significantly since April when the agreement
was signed.

From time to time I look at statistics related to
my blogs. Today I looked at browser percentage of page views on one of
my blogs. Opera was over 40 percent. Over a longer period it runs at
about one or two percent.

The statistic does not mean much. Maybe one person
using Opera simply read a number of pages, but it piqued my curiosity
about the Opera browser and led to my decision to write a short article
on it.
As compared to other browsers Opera
is at present in fifth place on desktops with Chrome being the most
popular according to most surveys, with venerable Internet Explorer in
second, closely followed by Firefox, the Apple operating system in
fourth and then Opera.
As this article points
out calculating the share of the market for each browser is difficult
to estimate. Methods used give different results. However, the four
different estimates shown here
are not that different, except for one company that has Internet
Explorer much more popular than any of the other three companies that
made estimates. Three out of four estimates have Chrome as the top
browser with the highest measurement being almost half 48.7 percent
market share earlier in June this year. Opera's share estimate ranges
from 1 to 3.2 percent.
Opera itself claims
to have more than 350 million users globally. However, many of these
users are on mobile, 276 million of them as of August this year. Opera
not only will operate on many mobile devices but will operate on Apple
and Linux operating systems.
The popularity of browsers varies from one
country to the next. In Belarus, Opera is actually the most popular browser.
Opera is the second oldest web browser and was launched in 1996 by
Norwegian techies in competition with the big guns then — Internet
Explorer by Microsoft and Netscape. Explorer later became dominant as it
was bundled with computers that run Windows. Safari was bundled with
Apple computers. The Chrome browser has the advantage of being
integrated with Google. Finally Firefox was popular because it is open
source and has a huge array of community-made add-ons. Opera could offer
only special features and speed.
The attraction of Opera in Belarus is that it has special features
that allowed users to strip out images and other items that used up a
lot of bandwidth. The state monopoly service provider charged hefty
fees for use of the Internet. Opera allowed users to save money. Opera
was also a leader in encryption another feature attractive to users in
Belarus. The situation in Belarus has vastly improved in terms of cost.
In 2009 a 1 Mbps connection cost about $45 dollars a month and the
average salary was about $342 a month. This year the cost for the same
plan is about $7 and the monthly salary average is $470, but Opera
continues to be the most popular browser even though there is less
concern about cost. Probably this shows that people use web browsers
they are used to.
In my own experience, I used Internet Explorer for years simply
because it was the browser that came with computers I purchased. From
time to time I would hear of people who used Firefox claiming it was
much better. However, why bother changing when what you are using and
comfortable with is working. I finally did try Firefox and then Chrome. I
now use Firefox and its totally open source clone Ice Weasel on all my
computers. I just found it easier to use the same browser no matter what
computer I am on. Years ago I did try Opera but did not adopt it
because it had compatibility issues with a few websites. However,
perhaps I will try out Opera again.
The review of Opera here is quite positive. Another article claims that Opera should have a larger market share and explains why it does not:On
paper, Opera should have a massive market share – It’s updated
regularly, fast, secure, customizable, introduces lots of new features
first, and looks great. It’s also an absolute pleasure to use. So why
does it only have a market share of 2.4%? To me, it looks like a matter
of branding. Internet Explorer, Safari and Chrome are products from
Microsoft, Apple and Google respectively, and Firefox has built up a
great reputation over a long time. Opera, however, does not have a
massive corporation behind it, nor does it have Firefox’s levels of
marketing. No matter what the reason really is, you shouldn’t let
Opera’s low market share discourage you from giving it a shot.

Although details are still sketchy an armed man emerged near the
National War Memorial on Parliament Hill. He then shot four times
wounding a guard. He then apparently was able to enter the parliament
buildings.

The shooter is still said to be on the loose although one MP Bernard Trottier
had tweeted that the gunman was shot and killed inside the Centre
Block. The area has been sealed off by police and the guard who was shot
has been taken to hospital.
Police locked down parliament. Tactical Ottawa police arrived pointed
guns at journalists and ordered them to the ground. Reporters were in
lockdown in the foyer at the front of the House of Commons.
Stephen
Harper, the prime minister, is reported safe and has left the
parliament buildings. One Calgary MP Michelle Rempel tweeted to her
mother that she was safe but that there were shots outside the caucus
room. One body was reported visible from the Library of Parliament that
is about in the middle of the Centre Block. It was not clear if the body
was of the suspect or a law enforcement officer.
This attack occurs after another incident Monday in Quebec in
a hit and run event that ended up killing one soldier and injuring
another. Martin Couture-Rouleah was being tracked by police as a person
with potential terrorist links.The suspect was later shot and killed
after a chase in which his vehicle overturned. He had deliberately run
over the two soldiers and then sped away.
Police had arrested Rouleau-Couture
last July and confiscated his passport as he was about to leave for
Turkey. He had converted to Islam about a year ago. The police did not
have evidence sufficient to lay any charges at the time but he was under
surveillance.Another report claims
that two MP's said that the gunman had been killed but that this had
not been confirmed. The attack came just hours after the government had
raised its terror threat level from low to medium. Ottawa police
tweeted: "Shots fired at War Memorial at 9:52 AM today; one person
injured." However, it is clear that several shots were also fired within
the parliament buildings themselves. Earlier this month Canada decided
to take part in the coalition fighting against the Islamic State in
Iraq.

In 2005 the Bush administration revealed that it
interpreted the UN Convention Against Torture banning "cruel, inhuman or
degrading treatment" as not applicable to the CIA or military prisons
overseas.

Barack Obama
was at that time just a newly-elected senator but he supported
legislation that would make it clear that US officials were barred from
using such treatment anywhere. However, the Obama administration has so
far not stated its official position on how the treaty is to be
interpreted. The New York Times
reports that Obama's legal group is considering whether the
administration should retreat from his earlier view and adopt a position
very much like that of former president George W. Bush — that the
treaty does not impose legal obligations to bar torture outside the
borders of the U.S. The U.S. will send a delegation to Geneva next month
to appear before a UN panel that monitors compliance with the UN
treaty.
The Times claims that State Department lawyers are in favor of
jettisoning the Bush interpretation. Obama had already issued an
executive order in 2009 that forbade torture anywhere in the world and
so this position would not involve any change in policy. Military and
intelligence lawyers, however, oppose accepting the implication that the
treaty creates any legal obligations on any U.S. actions outside the
U.S. These lawyers worry that detainees abroad could sue the US for
being subject to torture. Courts have repeatedly thrown out such
lawsuits.Bernadette Meehan, a
National Security Council spokesperson, claims that Obama's views on
the issue were quite clear and distinct from how the UN treaty was to be
interpreted: “We are considering that question, and other questions
posed by the committee, carefully as we prepare for the presentation in
November. But there is no question that torture and cruel treatment in
armed conflict are clearly and categorically prohibited in all places.”
If the Bush-era narrow
interpretation of US obligations is again adopted, this would clear the
way again for torture to be adopted by the U.S. abroad.
The US Senate Intelligence Committee recently
completed a classified 6,000-page report into the CIA's detention and
interrogation from September 2001 to 2006. However, the report did not
consider the role of George W. Bush or his top officials in approving
abuses, including torture. The public will only be able to see a
partly-redacted, 500-page summary of the report once the classification
process is completed. The Committee allowed the Obama administration to withhold about 9,000 documents based upon executive privilege.
A number of foreign leaders and NGOs have pressed for charges to be
made against Bush and former members of his administration for approving
abuse of detainees during the period studied by the Senate Committee.
The only official to
go to jail over the torture issue was John Kiriakou, a whistleblower
who was one of the first to confirm the existence of the US
waterboarding program. He was sentenced to two-and-a-half years in jail
for revealing the name of an uncercover agent.
The present director of the Central Intelligence Agency John Brennan was also an important CIA official during the period when it was carrying out its policies of abuse, and he defended policies like
waterboarding. Obama has held up release of the redacted summary report
of the Senate Intelligence Committee. Brennan and his cleanup crew are
no doubt busy redacting any mud in the report that might soil the
pristine reputation of the CIA.
Obama refused to lay charges against any Bush era officials involved
in torture. Indeed, after two tries he was able to have one appointed as
head of the CIA.
As the president so eloquently put the issue:
"This is a time for reflection, not retribution. I respect the strong
views and emotions that these issues evoke. We have been through a dark
and painful chapter in our history. But at a time of great challenges
and disturbing disunity, nothing will be gained by spending our time and
energy laying blame for the past."
Of course exceptions can be made for whistleblowers.

Tuesday, October 21, 2014

Jeffrey Laude, aka Jenny, a transgender woman, was murdered in Olongapo
City in the Philippines on October 11th. Olongapo City is near Subic Bay
where US forces are stationed.

An initial report in
the Marine Corps Times from an internal Naval memo gave few details:
“Philippine police report a homicide occurred in a hotel room in
Olongapo City on the night of 11 October.The victim was reported as a
male Philippine national ... preliminary witness statements indicate
U.S. military personnel may have been involved.”
However, on October 15, local officials charged Private first Class
Joseph Pemberton with the murder of Laude. The Philippine government
later served five subpoenas on the US embassy in Manila. One was for
Pemberton and the other four for witnesses.
The murder happens more than
two decades after US forces were expelled from the Subic Bay base.
However, US forces continue to visit on a rotating basis and the
Philippine government is now considering a new agreement that would
allow more US troops to rotate through the country.
Retired US Air Force Colonel Carl Baker who is director of programs at the Pacific Forum Center for Strategic and International Studies said: "The
Philippines is really driven by public opinion. These type of incidents
really have a big impact on how they view their relationship with the
United States.”
The night of her death Laude was said to be at the hotel or motel
with a friend and a "foreigner". She was reported to be uneasy that the
foreigner would find out that they were transgenders and asked the
friend to leave before "the foreigner could discover they were
transgenders". The autopsy showed that she died due to asphyxia by
drowning. After her death photos surfaced showing her body leaning
against a toilet, protests erupted among Filipino transgender rights
activists. Some signs read "US troops out now". A police report called the murder a "hate crime".Some authorities claimed
the incident is unlikely to have any significant longer term effect on
Philippine US relations. The Philippines is anxious to have US support
for claims to islands in the South China Sea that are also claimed by
China and several other countries.
Unlike in some countries such as Afghanistan, US troops in the
Philippines do not have immunity from prosecution in Philippine courts.
However, there are aspects of the agreement that are already a sore
point with many in the Philippines. The agreement allows the US to
retain custody of its own military members when they are charged with
crimes rather than turning them over to Philippine authorities. They can
remain in US custody until found guilty. After Laude's murder, there
were demands that Pemberton be surrendered to Philippine authorities.
The issue surfaced in a 2006 case when four marines were charged with
raping a Filipina. Not only were all four held in custody by the US but
when a judge found one marine guilty and ordered him turned over to
local authorities, the order was never executed. Eventually when the
woman on appeal changed her testimony the Marine was acquitted of the
charge.
A new Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement was signed in April, that
would see even more US military personnel rotate through the
Philippines for the next decade but the agreement is being challenged
before the Philippine Supreme Court. Philippine defense officials admit it may be several years yet before the agreement is enacted.Four witnesses who
were summoned to appear at the Olongapo City Prosecutor's Office in
connection with the murder already have left the Philippines according
to the Philippine Dept. of Foreign Affairs. Charles Jose noted: “DFA was not informed by the US side that four witnesses were leaving the country. They are not required to do so”
The US did give assurances that the witnesses will appear at the trial.
In spite of the demands from protesters that Pemberton be kept in custody by Philippine authorities, the US Embassy in Manila said
that it would keep Pemberton under US custody as was its right under
the existing VFA. However, the Embassy also said that it would cooperate
fully with Philippine authorities.
There have been moves in the Philippine Congress to scrap the VFA. Miriam Santiago a
prominent senator called for the VFA to be scrapped while others such
as Herminio Coloma Jr., head of the presidential communications office
said the government supported calls for the VFA to be reviewed.