Publication year

On 19 February, European leaders reached an agreement on reforming British EU membership. Despite some gains, Cameron also had to make concessions and as a result, secured fewer reforms than he had promised ahead of the EU-summit.

Following a court ruling in new York on 19 February Argentina is one step closer to solving a 15 year old debt saga and to regaining access to international markets. However, several conditions have to be met first.

The Australian economy remains resilient. After the mining investment boom, the economy is now primarily driven by net exports and consumption. Meanwhile, the housing market softened due to tightened lending standards to housing investors.

Economic growth in Indonesia slowed down in 2015 to a post Global Financial Crisis low, mainly due to weak external demand. We expect a gradual economic recovery in 2016, driven by rising infrastructure investments due to a more decisive government.

Growth in Malaysia slowed down as a result of lower commodity prices. The involvement of PM Najib in a large corruption scandal is hurting his position and international investors’ confidence. This has resulted in increased external pressure on the economy and the balance of payments.

A balance of payments crisis is unlikely in today’s Asia. Most countries have improved their current accounts and FX reserves. The rising debt load may however pose problems, although it nowadays is mainly local currency denominated.

Strong economic growth has diminished poverty in the region and will swell the ranks of the middle class. But corruption levels are high, China’s influence in the region is increasing and the dispute surrounding the South China Sea may generate stability risks.

Asia Pacific is a decisive component in the global food chain. Asia’s large and growing population and rising incomes will continue to drive demand for food, agricultural commodities and resources. But Asia cannot produce enough to support itself.

Demographics will provide headwinds in the developed countries of APAC and China, and tailwinds in South Asia. While total factor productivity growth has fallen, the innovation outlook for the APAC region is still relatively favourable.

In recent years, the currency union has been strengthened, but several important steps still need to be taken. We put forward some recommendations in the field of economic and fiscal policy, the banking union and the capital markets union.

The US benefits from a more stable and bipartisan politics lately while the conclusion of TPP is set to reinforce its geopolitical clout. The economy looks on track with unemployment at pre-crisis levels.

Following opposition victory in the November 2015 Argentinian elections, Argentina changes course on economic policy. The shift is good for the business environment, but not without implementation risks.