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SUMMARY

Birds are responding to recent climate change in a variety of ways including shifting their geographic ranges to cooler climates. There is evidence that northern-temperate birds have shifted their breeding and non-breeding ranges to higher latitudes, and tropical birds have shifted their breeding ranges to higher altitudes. There is further evidence these shifts have affected migration strategies and the composition and structure of communities. Projections based on correlative distributional models suggest many birds will experience substantial pressures under climate change, resulting in range contraction and shifts. Inherent limitations of correlative models, however, make it difficult to develop reliable projections and detailed inference. Incorporating a mechanistic perspective into species distribution models enriches the quality of model inferences but also severely narrows the taxonomic and geographic relevance. Mechanistic distributional models have seen increased applications, but so far primarily in ectotherms. We argue that further development of similar models in birds would complement existing empirical knowledge and theoretical projections. The considerable data already available on birds offer an exciting basis. In particular, information compiled on flight performance and thermal associations across life history stages could be linked to distributional limits and dispersal abilities, which could be used to develop more robust and detailed projections. Yet, only a broadening of taxonomic scale, specifically to appropriately represented tropical diversity, will allow for truly general inference and require the continued use of correlative approaches that may take on increasingly mechanistic components. The trade-off between detail and scale is likely to characterize the future of global change biodiversity research, and birds may be an excellent group to improve, integrate and geographically extend current approaches.

Other journals from The Company of Biologists

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Erika Eliason is an Assistant Professor at University of California, Santa Barbara, USA, where she studies ecological and evolutionary physiology. She shares how a childhood spent discovering the natural world in the woods where she grew up ignited her love for science and fieldwork, why conferences should be more family-friendly and the importance of being prepared for the unexpected.

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Meet the team

Are you going to the 2018 APS Comparative Physiology meeting in October? This meeting is supported by JEB and our Reviews Editor Charlotte Rutledge will be there - stop by and say hello! Advance registration is open until 24 September 2018.