NFL Week 11 Betting Recap

NFL Week 11 Betting Recap

– Underdogs went 10-4 ATS in Week 11 moving their season record to 78-79 ATS. Home teams went 8-6 ATS in week 10 and are now 78-76 ATS on the year. It was also a nice week for contrarian betting with teams receiving less than 50% of spread bets posting a 9-5 ATS record.

– Fading teams following a win of at least 7-points has gone 55-42 ATS (+10.76 units, 11.1% ROI) this season. Fading teams following a win of at least 14-points has gone 37-25 ATS (+11.03 units, 17.8% ROI) this season.

– Texans QB Ryan Mallett, who had just 4 career passing attempts entering the weekend, got his first career start Sunday against the Browns. Bovada set the over/under on his passing yards at 210.5 and Mallett barely went over with 211 yards.

– The Patriots/Colts total closed at 59 — the highest O/U of the 2014 season – Overs are now 11-7 when the total closes above 56 since 2003.

– A team with a 75% win percentage or higher has never received less than 32% of spread bets this late in the season. The Eagles (+4.5) received just 22% of spread bets this weekend against the Packers but lost 53-20.

– The Broncos (+8), who were easily the most popular team among bettors this week, lost to the Rams 22-7. St. Louis closed at +325 on the moneyline.

– Since ’03, Peyton Manning is 40-40 ATS in domed stadiums, 54-27 ATS in all other venues. (DEN -10 on the road in St Louis and did not cover, lost outright)

– Since last week the odds of Aaron Rodgers winning the 2014 MVP Award have moved from +350 to -110 — leapfrogging Peyton Manning in the process. Oddly, Tom Brady has dropped from +400 to +1200 despite his team’s impressive victory over the Colts on Sunday night. – Current MVP odds at Sportsbook.com:

– The Patriots have better odds of winning the Super Bowl than the Broncos; however, the most likely Super Bowl matchup does not feature New England. Here are the most likely Super Bowl matchups at 5Dimes:

– Earlier this season we wrote an article for ESPN which detailed why NFL bettors should take small NFL road dogs on the moneyline instead of the spread. The system detailed in the piece boasts a 14-13 record this season with +11.75 units won and a 44% ROI.

– Yesterday we updated an article which projects win totals for every NFL team. The Cardinals are the only team who have already settled their season win total by going over 7.5 wins. The New Orleans Saints would need to win out to push their preseason projection, while any other outcome would results in an under.

– This season our NFL Best Bets have gone 28-23 ATS (+2.74 units) while our College Football Best Bets have gone 58-43 ATS (+9.66 units). Receive these plays along with real-time odds from 40+ sportsbooks, public betting trends from 7 contributing sportsbooks and much more by signing up for a 4-day trial of Sportsbook Insider Pro.

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