Indian Summer: Major warm-up expected in N.J. next week

A map of predicted temperature anomalies from the GFS model show temperatures running 15 to 20+ degrees above normal by the end of next week.

(WeatherBell)

The calendar will formally read November next week, but it might feel more like late-September.

A massive ridge of high pressure is expected to build over the eastern half of the United States next week, potentially pushing temperatures to the low-to-mid 70s for several days -- near record levels for this time of year.

The warm spell, should it come to fruition, would give New Jersey a true Indian Summer -- a term used to describe an unusual warm spell after a region's first freeze (which occurred earlier this month in New Jersey).

The culprit? It may be the handiwork of El Nino -- the abnormal warming of waters in the Eastern Pacific Ocean, which can cause rippling effects worldwide, forecasters say.

"Usually in these sorts of situations, you'd expect to see warmer than average conditions this time of year," said Brian Marmo, a meteorologist at WeatherWorks in Hackettstown. "It could be that we're seeing El Nino really starting to take hold."

After a few days of more seasonable conditions expected this weekend and into the start of the workweek, forecast models strongly suggest that a strong ridge of high pressure will build across the eastern United States by Tuesday and Wednesday, providing a channel for warm air from the southwest to spill northeast.

The pattern shift will represent the polar opposite of what the country has seen for virtually all of the last two years, which have been typified by cooler conditions in the east and warmer conditions in the west.

Forecasters are extremely confident that a warming trend will take place next week.

While it may seem like a fool's errand to predict conditions so far in advance, temperature signatures are far easier to predict in comparison to weather conditions. What's more, the National Weather Service's Climate Prediction Center puts New Jersey at more than 80 percent probability for above average conditions over the next six to 14 days.

By the end of next week, temperatures could be topping out in the low-to-mid 70s, between 15 and 20 degrees above average for this time of year.

"Near record temperatures may break out," said David Robinson, the state climatologist at Rutgers University. "Generally speaking, record high temperatures are hovering in the mid 70s during that time period."

Steven DiMartino, a meteorologist and owner of NY NJ PA Weather, said he expects the pattern to continue through November.

"We'll get our cold shots once in a while, but overall a warm pattern," he said.