Venezuela Working Group

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Overview

The Venezuela Working Group (VWG) leverages AS/COA’s corporate constituency to provide a unique forum for a constructive, hands-on conversation on Venezuela. The VWG navigates Venezuela’s changing economic and political landscape by convening key national and international stakeholders from the public, private, and social sectors to better understand the country’s present challenges and future political and economic scenarios. Our programs include high-level private and public meetings and discussions.

In this podcast, Mark Feierstein, NSC senior director for Western Hemisphere affairs in the Obama White House, lays out a multi-pronged strategy for pressuring the Maduro regime ahead of 2018 elections.
... Read More

In this podcast, Mark Feierstein, NSC senior director for Western Hemisphere affairs in the Obama White House, lays out a multi-pronged strategy for pressuring the Maduro regime ahead of 2018 elections.
... Read More

After Venezuela endured a week of brutal attacks against opposition leaders, AS/COA Vice President Eric Farnsworth spoke to CNN about the country's political, humanitarian, and economic crises. All eyes are on the next deadline, July 30, when the Nicolás Maduro government is calling for a constitutional assembly to rewrite the constitution. "There is an increasing urgency by the opposition to try to to derail that constitutional assembly," said Farnsworth.

LatAm in Focus: Venezuela, Elections, Sanctions, and Baseball

Thursday, December 14, 2017

In this podcast, Mark Feierstein, NSC senior director for Western Hemisphere affairs in the Obama White House, lays out a multi-pronged strategy for pressuring the Maduro regime ahead of 2018 elections....

Venezuela is not a normal totalitarian regime, said Beatrice Rangel at an AS/COA Venezuela Working Group event in Miami, but a government sustained by international organized crime. Rangel, who served as chief of staff to former Venezuelan President Carlos Andrés Pérez, told AS/COA's Guillermo Zubillaga that the next steps must be for the Organization of the American States to declare Venezuela in violation of the Inter-American Democratic Charter, and then have the UN Security Council take up the matter.

Will the Venezuelan government and the state-owned oil firm PDVSA be able to make their April bond payments? Do they have the cash flow to avoid default in 2017? Is there a rational argument to making these billion-dollar payments as import levels plummet? Is political change a prerequisite to economic recovery? Panelists discussed these and other questions about the country's turbulent situation.

Americas Society/Council of the Americas and the American Enterprise Institute held a discussion with diplomats and experts on what's at stake when it comes to recovering and restoring democracy in Venezuela. Panelists spoke about oil, civil rights, and influences from other Latin American countries and the United States via traditional diplomacy and Twitter.

Experts discussed what it will take to pull Venezuela out of its economic hole and political stalemate....

Speakers:

Alejandro Grisanti, Economist and former Venezuela Analyst at Barclays

Armando Briquet, Political Consultant and former Campaign Manager for Henrique Capriles' presidential bid

Francisco Monaldi, Fellow in Latin American Energy Policy at the Baker Institute, Rice University

Luz Mely Reyes, Journalist and Founder of Efecto Cocuyo (moderator)

While other oil economies learned from the 1970s crisis, Venezuela didn't and faces an unparalleled economic crisis today that includes catastrophic inflation and a brutal drop in real wages. Economic recovery is possible but will be costly, though less so if groups such as the International Monetary Fund are allowed to step in. Politcally, the opposition has been able to unify and address issues with the other branches of power, said panelists, but democratic progress is slow and will take time.

Venezuela's bond payments of nearly $5 billion are due in October, but sinking oil prices aren't helping; analysts predict a default could well happen. Meanwhile, Venezuelans are facing inflation at 275 percent and consumer prices are expected to increase 152 percent in 2016. Greylock Capital's Jose Ferro, Moody's Jaime Reusche, and head of AS/COA's Venezuela Working Group Guillermo Zubillaga comment on the possibility of a future credit event.

All signs point to default, but the oil-rich country has room to recover, said experts at an AS/COA panel. ...

There's an 80 percent chance Venezuela will default on its bond payments in 2016, estimates Moody's. But Venezuela still has a lot of oil to cash in on. Does a regime change loom? Experts weighed in at an AS/COA panel.

Venezuela has shown a "surreal" willingness to pay, said Greylock's Diego Ferro, but it will run out of money and inevitably default. On the other hand, the country's medium-term forecast is not so bleak, given that oil prices are expected to rise, said Martin Schubert of European InterAmerican Finance. The experts compared Venezuela's situation to Argentina's past defaults, considered the implications of a regime change, and debated the risks of buying or selling bonds for Venezuela's state-owned oil company.

The opposition won a supermajority in Venezuela's National Assembly on December 6, but the toughest stretch lies ahead due to the country's ailing economy and embattled democracy. Venezuela is "the black eye" of Latin America, said Georgetown's Hector Schamis at a COA panel. Now the opposition must pick a leader in Congress, as well as address the humanitarian crisis and a narco regime, according to former Colombian President Andrés Pastrana.

The Venezuela Working Group (VWG) leverages AS/COA’s corporate constituency to provide a unique forum for a constructive, hands-on conversation on Venezuela. The VWG navigates Venezuela’s changing economic and political landscape by convening key national and international stakeholders from the public, private, and social sectors to better understand the country’s present challenges and future political and economic scenarios. Our programs include high-level private and public meetings and discussions.

In this podcast, Mark Feierstein, NSC senior director for Western Hemisphere affairs in the Obama White House, lays out a multi-pronged strategy for pressuring the Maduro regime ahead of 2018 elections.
... Read More

In this podcast, Mark Feierstein, NSC senior director for Western Hemisphere affairs in the Obama White House, lays out a multi-pronged strategy for pressuring the Maduro regime ahead of 2018 elections.
... Read More

After Venezuela endured a week of brutal attacks against opposition leaders, AS/COA Vice President Eric Farnsworth spoke to CNN about the country's political, humanitarian, and economic crises. All eyes are on the next deadline, July 30, when the Nicolás Maduro government is calling for a constitutional assembly to rewrite the constitution. "There is an increasing urgency by the opposition to try to to derail that constitutional assembly," said Farnsworth.

Speak with an Expert

LatAm in Focus: Venezuela, Elections, Sanctions, and Baseball

Thursday, December 14, 2017

In this podcast, Mark Feierstein, NSC senior director for Western Hemisphere affairs in the Obama White House, lays out a multi-pronged strategy for pressuring the Maduro regime ahead of 2018 elections....

Venezuela is not a normal totalitarian regime, said Beatrice Rangel at an AS/COA Venezuela Working Group event in Miami, but a government sustained by international organized crime. Rangel, who served as chief of staff to former Venezuelan President Carlos Andrés Pérez, told AS/COA's Guillermo Zubillaga that the next steps must be for the Organization of the American States to declare Venezuela in violation of the Inter-American Democratic Charter, and then have the UN Security Council take up the matter.

Will the Venezuelan government and the state-owned oil firm PDVSA be able to make their April bond payments? Do they have the cash flow to avoid default in 2017? Is there a rational argument to making these billion-dollar payments as import levels plummet? Is political change a prerequisite to economic recovery? Panelists discussed these and other questions about the country's turbulent situation.

Americas Society/Council of the Americas and the American Enterprise Institute held a discussion with diplomats and experts on what's at stake when it comes to recovering and restoring democracy in Venezuela. Panelists spoke about oil, civil rights, and influences from other Latin American countries and the United States via traditional diplomacy and Twitter.

Experts discussed what it will take to pull Venezuela out of its economic hole and political stalemate....

Speakers:

Alejandro Grisanti, Economist and former Venezuela Analyst at Barclays

Armando Briquet, Political Consultant and former Campaign Manager for Henrique Capriles' presidential bid

Francisco Monaldi, Fellow in Latin American Energy Policy at the Baker Institute, Rice University

Luz Mely Reyes, Journalist and Founder of Efecto Cocuyo (moderator)

While other oil economies learned from the 1970s crisis, Venezuela didn't and faces an unparalleled economic crisis today that includes catastrophic inflation and a brutal drop in real wages. Economic recovery is possible but will be costly, though less so if groups such as the International Monetary Fund are allowed to step in. Politcally, the opposition has been able to unify and address issues with the other branches of power, said panelists, but democratic progress is slow and will take time.

Venezuela's bond payments of nearly $5 billion are due in October, but sinking oil prices aren't helping; analysts predict a default could well happen. Meanwhile, Venezuelans are facing inflation at 275 percent and consumer prices are expected to increase 152 percent in 2016. Greylock Capital's Jose Ferro, Moody's Jaime Reusche, and head of AS/COA's Venezuela Working Group Guillermo Zubillaga comment on the possibility of a future credit event.

All signs point to default, but the oil-rich country has room to recover, said experts at an AS/COA panel. ...

There's an 80 percent chance Venezuela will default on its bond payments in 2016, estimates Moody's. But Venezuela still has a lot of oil to cash in on. Does a regime change loom? Experts weighed in at an AS/COA panel.

Venezuela has shown a "surreal" willingness to pay, said Greylock's Diego Ferro, but it will run out of money and inevitably default. On the other hand, the country's medium-term forecast is not so bleak, given that oil prices are expected to rise, said Martin Schubert of European InterAmerican Finance. The experts compared Venezuela's situation to Argentina's past defaults, considered the implications of a regime change, and debated the risks of buying or selling bonds for Venezuela's state-owned oil company.

The opposition won a supermajority in Venezuela's National Assembly on December 6, but the toughest stretch lies ahead due to the country's ailing economy and embattled democracy. Venezuela is "the black eye" of Latin America, said Georgetown's Hector Schamis at a COA panel. Now the opposition must pick a leader in Congress, as well as address the humanitarian crisis and a narco regime, according to former Colombian President Andrés Pastrana.