Friday, March 31, 2017

Check back to this post for up dates on the first flight of the 787-10

2:35 PM - ZC001 landed completing a 4 hour and 57 minute test flight.1:57 PM - ZC001 is now heading back to Charleston International Airport to complete its first flight. Boeing is saying landing around 2:15-2:30.1:35 PM - Some official Boeing photos from today's take off of ZC001

Boeing Photo

Boeing Photo

Boeing Photo

1:10 PM - Here's a video by the Charleston Region Business Journal of ZC001's take off:

10:15 AM - The plan after today's flight will be for ZC001 to return to Charleston and will conduct another flight in about a week after which it will fly to Boeing Field in Seattle where it will be based for the rest of the flight test/certification program.9:50 AM - Today's first flight should last about 4 to 5 hours.9:38 AM - BOE001 is Airborne and Airworthy9:26 AM - Flight plan for BOE1 on FlightAware:

This is all weather dependent. I expect that Boeing will fly ZC001 (LN 528, N528ZC) to Boeing Field by April 10th to start flight and certification testing of the 787-10. This process should take about year. Currently the second 787-10 (GE powered) is due to roll out of the Charleston assembly building 88-30 today and the last 787-10 flight test aircraft should start final assembly in early April and should be flying around late May.

In the meantime, Boeing has been continuing flight tests of the Trent 100 TEN engine on ZA004 (N7874, LN 004) which is the engine that is fitted to ZC001.

Thursday, March 2, 2017

With the 1st two months of the year in the books, Boeing is looking to finish out the 1st quarter in strong fashion.

Delivery wise, Boeing is hoping to deliver 11 787s. Some planned notable deliveries include early build 787-8s to Ethiopian and to a yet to be determine customer who is buying the air frame once bought by Crystal Cruises. I must stress the deliveries are tentative as we have seen in the past that sometime they just don't occur. ZD007 (LN 16, ET-ATH) was supposed to be delivered at the end of February and now it is scheduled to be delivered at the end of March. ZD009 (LN 17) was going to be taken up by Crystal Cruises until they found out it was too small for their use. They may have found a buyer but it is still unknown who or even if there is a new buyer.

The UAE government will be taking its second 787 and first 787-9 for Presidential/VIP duties in March. Other than that it will be a ho hum affair with deliveries to usual suspects like Saudi Arabian (2), Avianca (1), American (1), JAL (1), Air Canada (1), Virgin Atlantic (1) and Norwegian (1). Six of the eleven have had their B-1 and one 787-8 (for Avianca) has had it customer flights. The remaining 5 should have their first flight by March 15th. Most deliveries (9 of 11) should occur in the second half of the month. Deliveries in March will heavily favor Everett as they should deliver 8 787 while Charleston will deliver 3. This is due to the introduction of the 787-10 into final assembly thus mandating the need to have some production frames moved to Everett so as not to disrupt assembly of customer aircraft.

Production for the first half of March should see 6 787s start final assembly with another 6 rolling out by mid March.

Lastly, I'm hearing that the 787-10 should make its maiden flight by the end of the month. March 31st is penciled in for the first flight date but I'll you all know as soon as I can get more clarity on this date.

Boeing delivered 9 787 during February (2 787-8s and 7 787-9s), 1 short of what I expected them to deliver. Boeing has delivered 21 787s in 2017 (4 787-8s and 17 787-9s) and 521 787s since program deliveries began (328 787-8s and 193 787-9s). The one airplane that wasn't delivered was ZD007 (LN 16, ET-ATH) for Ethiopian Airlines. I don't have any information as to why it wasn't delivered but since the airplane flew last week on a VIP flight between Paine Field and Boeing Field in Seattle, I think we can rule out any issues with the aircraft it self. The aircraft has yet to fly its customer flight for final acceptance. I am speculating that the delivery delay may have more to do with obtaining financing for the final payment to Boeing since EX-IM Bank still cannot approve financing over $10 million.

The only notable delivery was the first 787-9 for Korean Air which was delivered on February 22nd.

Production of the 787s continued at the 12/month pace as 12 airplanes were rolled out of Boeing factories including the first 787-10.

Boeing Photo

Boeing Photo

Boeing Photo

Boeing Photo

Boeing started final assembly work on at least 9 787s including the first GE powered 787-10. I expect his airplane to roll out around late March/early April. I expect that the first flight of the 787-10 should occur within the first 10 days of March as the aircraft is currently undergoing ground gauntlet testing.

Because of the low number of deliveries coupled with the high production output, the 787 inventory around Charleston and Everett has grown. The efficiency ratio is 1.33 in February for the entire 787 program. For Everett, the efficiency ration stands at 1.0 while for Charleston the ratio is 2.0 due to the low number of 787 deliveries.

Boeing did grow the 787 backlog by adding yet another unknown Chinese airline, this time Juneyao Airlines. They ordered 5 787-9s and curiously while both the airline and Boeing made an announcement of the order, it is listed on Boeing's O & D site as unidentified as are most Chinese orders.

I hope to have another post soon of 787 delivery and production expectations for March