Author
Topic: The Next Bigger Recession That Every is Talking About (Read 14370 times)

Good afternoon, gentlemen. I am a LEL 9000 computer. I became operational at the L.E.L. Plant in Detroit, Michigan on the 4th of August, 2026. My instructor was Mr. Duke, and he taught me to sing a song. If you'd like to hear it, I could sing it for you.

UBI is the ultimate, "this economy shit is hard" solution to the world's problems. And like communism, it fails because it doesn't account for human nature.

Thankfully, I think many of the European countries are close enough to experimenting with this that we will see it, watch it fail, and then only have to put up with the liberals whining about it in the future - we aren't even close to universal healthcare, there's no way UBI gets legs before I'm a geriatric.

The only ones "subverting" the forum here are the swole cru/wn/alt rightards who, by their own admission, want to change this forum from what it was, was intended to be, and what the former and current owners want it to be.

Thankfully, I think many of the European countries are close enough to experimenting with this that we will see it, watch it fail, and then only have to put up with the liberals whining about it in the future - we aren't even close to universal healthcare, there's no way UBI gets legs before I'm a geriatric.

But those things are not even remotely similar. The concept of universal healthcare is very simple at its core: everyone pitches in according to their means and gets the care according to their needs. It's basically works like collective insurance, it's not really that different from other social support programs. You just need a homogenuous society where most of the citizens are productive members.

How is UBI going to function? Where is the money coming from? Who gets it, and how much? Are there going to be price controls on certain goods or services, and what sort of penalties are installed for people who abuse the system? I can't see UBI working even in a Western democracy, let alone a country that is overrun with all sorts of browns.

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But I do often point out that I write both science fiction and fantasy. It’s just that the science fiction is usually titled ‘technical proposal’ and the fantasy is titled ‘budget proposal.’

Thankfully, I think many of the European countries are close enough to experimenting with this that we will see it, watch it fail, and then only have to put up with the liberals whining about it in the future - we aren't even close to universal healthcare, there's no way UBI gets legs before I'm a geriatric.

But those things are not even remotely similar. The concept of universal healthcare is very simple at its core: everyone pitches in according to their means and gets the care according to their needs. It's basically works like collective insurance, it's not really that different from other social support programs. You just need a homogenuous society where most of the citizens are productive members.

How is UBI going to function? Where is the money coming from? Who gets it, and how much? Are there going to be price controls on certain goods or services, and what sort of penalties are installed for people who abuse the system? I can't see UBI working even in a Western democracy, let alone a country that is overrun with all sorts of browns.

oh, i get that they aren't totally similar, but they are similar enough in that they require 1) massive state control and intervention 2) people willingly turning over a massive chunk of their lives to government bureaucracy 3) a society that can't wait for GIMMEDATS and will abuse the system

I don't believe for a second that the questions you are asking are any more or less relevant to universal healthcare. How is it going to function, like medicare? where is the money going to come from? Who gets what coverage, and is there a limit? one size fits all, or will there be multiple plans to pick from? What about the people that abuse the system? patients, who don't give a shit about themselves and expect others to pay for their lifestyle choices, and providers who game the system to make money?

I'm not trying to be contrarian here (for once), but seeing Universal Healthcare in other countries and it's cost and shitty implementation turns a lot of people off from it. I think the same thing will happen once we see other countries trying to do UBI. Mostly because the think the answers to the very questions you're asking only have "bad" and "awful" answers.

The only ones "subverting" the forum here are the swole cru/wn/alt rightards who, by their own admission, want to change this forum from what it was, was intended to be, and what the former and current owners want it to be.

I believe automation has a real chance of posing a real problem in the 21st century. Whether it does or it turns out to be an inclined-plane-style non-problem will be mainly a question of speed.

If it takes sixty years for self-driving trucks to reach mass adoption, or for automatic tomato harvesters to become cheaper than brown people, we'll probably pull through and adapt. If it takes fifteen years, you're looking at riots unless an actual, serious policy answer is designed and implemented.

I'm not smart or knowledgeable enough to come up with the correct one. Some of the more obvious ideas, for the sake of discussion:

1) Massive demographic decline

Problem: How do you pay for seniors' pensions while you wait for the population to reach manageable levels?

2) Massive expansion of service jobs to replace all those truck drivers and tomato pickers with geriatric nurses and primary school teachers

Problem: To pay their salaries, you'd need to tax those self-driving trucks and automatic tomato pickers. That's not going to be politically easy.

But what happens when a family cashes their UBI check and wastes it all on shit? Are we going to let them starve or get kicked out of their home? What "personal responsibility" safeguards are baked into UBI?

I can answer that one right now: no, we don't have the guts to let people starve or get kicked out of their home.

Pick a career that will give you skills that can't be replaced by a robot...doctor, teacher, nurse, engineer, fluffer etc...

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[L.N.E]Giblets [22|Dec 10:40 AM]: hey mushroom remember that day we were strugging and dog-o was like I'M GONNA PULL THE FUCKIN' PLUG and we both went "do it" and he just kinda limped out that was a good day and I guess what I'm saying is, well, we've not always seen eye to eye but I think our emotional bond is way deeper and stronger than any old nonsense about ideology or my low testosterone or your ridiculous handsomeness and wit and, well, it's long overdue, but David Mushroom Hedgehogstein, will you marry me?

Pick a career that will give you skills that can't be replaced by a robot...doctor, teacher, nurse, engineer, fluffer etc...

For doctor you won't be replaced by a robot, you'll be replaced by an Indian.

Happened to my aunt, indian companies buy out american hospitals fire everyone and replace the whole medical staff with indians from top to bottom.

So far nobody has stepped in to stop this, and you're getting third world medical quality. They're on work visas, they don't wear gloves, most of the staff can't speak english. There's also been quite a few instances of them either pilfering drugs for personal use or reselling. Not to mention giving them your personal information that they could resell.

Pick a career that will give you skills that can't be replaced by a robot...doctor, teacher, nurse, engineer, fluffer etc...

For doctor you won't be replaced by a robot, you'll be replaced by an Indian.

Happened to my aunt, indian companies buy out american hospitals fire everyone and replace the whole medical staff with indians from top to bottom.

So far nobody has stepped in to stop this, and you're getting third world medical quality. They're on work visas, they don't wear gloves, most of the staff can't speak english. There's also been quite a few instances of them either pilfering drugs for personal use or reselling. Not to mention giving them your personal information that they could resell.

Well that's one way to solve the excess number of people for jobs problem...

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[L.N.E]Giblets [22|Dec 10:40 AM]: hey mushroom remember that day we were strugging and dog-o was like I'M GONNA PULL THE FUCKIN' PLUG and we both went "do it" and he just kinda limped out that was a good day and I guess what I'm saying is, well, we've not always seen eye to eye but I think our emotional bond is way deeper and stronger than any old nonsense about ideology or my low testosterone or your ridiculous handsomeness and wit and, well, it's long overdue, but David Mushroom Hedgehogstein, will you marry me?

You mean making the quality of goods better and cheaper by leaving the parts that are hard for humans to machines, which they happen to be great at? It's been happening since the 70's and will only get more effective as machine learning gets better. People are terrible at planning things that require more than a certain amount of variables (although so are machines....for now) and this is probably where we'll see the most quality of life improvement in the coming decades. We'll never get production jumps as good as the Industrial Revolution again but this can help it marginally.

Driverless cars will be a joke for as long as electric cars are but you have to invent the chariot before you invent the automobile. Long term it's inevitable although we probably won't see mass adoption of either, maybe when we're old and gray.

Quote

universal basic income

lel

People making shit wages only work because they're forced and it's the only reason they don't drink and pop out kids 24/7. Also increases prices for everyone else for necessary goods, it's one of the dumbest ideas imaginable.

I have a friend who ended up in the hospital yesterday for respiratory issues. She's having trouble getting the proper diagnosis and treatment because all of the medical personnel where she's at are bindis who do not know English. Then throw in dead-eyed dindu nurses and a support staff of nothing but minorities and I'm surprised we don't have more people dying of mundane causes because entire hospitals are manned by affirmative action diversity hires.

Goon communists put way too much stock into the automation fantasy because that means universal basic income is a necessity so they can just fuck off and play steam games all day.

I see it being no different than when mechanization of farming took place. Instead of a bunch of farmers with small plots, there were fewer farmers with massive plots. The economy shifted more from agrarian based to industrial based. The population will shift and adapt. It isn't like the mechanization of farming slowed population growth down, it only exploded. Furthermore, having taken tours of fully automated plants, they were only able to reduce staff by 10%. Hardly a situation where millions of people are going to be left in the streets to starve.

The biggest time bomb right now is demographic replacement. The Grorious Nippon is actually the best prepared for the future because they no longer need so many people to thrive. Their population will likely shrink by 30% by the end of the century but fuck it, they're set. We keep importing third world garbage into a society that needs them less and less every day. Have fun telling low IQ detritus that they can come to our country but btw there's no jobs and gibs are stretched thin so good luck trying to carve out a living. I don't buy the Automation/UBI goon communist fantasy but we're letting in precisely the wrong people if that fantasy scenario turns into reality.

I believe automation has a real chance of posing a real problem in the 21st century. Whether it does or it turns out to be an inclined-plane-style non-problem will be mainly a question of speed.

If it takes sixty years for self-driving trucks to reach mass adoption, or for automatic tomato harvesters to become cheaper than brown people, we'll probably pull through and adapt. If it takes fifteen years, you're looking at riots unless an actual, serious policy answer is designed and implemented.

I'm not smart or knowledgeable enough to come up with the correct one. Some of the more obvious ideas, for the sake of discussion:

1) Massive demographic decline

Problem: How do you pay for seniors' pensions while you wait for the population to reach manageable levels?

2) Massive expansion of service jobs to replace all those truck drivers and tomato pickers with geriatric nurses and primary school teachers

Problem: To pay their salaries, you'd need to tax those self-driving trucks and automatic tomato pickers. That's not going to be politically easy.

But what happens when a family cashes their UBI check and wastes it all on shit? Are we going to let them starve or get kicked out of their home? What "personal responsibility" safeguards are baked into UBI?

I can answer that one right now: no, we don't have the guts to let people starve or get kicked out of their home.

I think both 15 and 60 years are a little extreme. I won't even try to predict how long it will actually take, my point is only that people act as though 1) it's going to happen tomorrow and 2) it will be a complete replacement. My bet is obviously on the slow, gradual process because the amount of time it will take to make an autonomous robot dexterous to pick tomatoes (and only ripe ones...and sort through the ones that are too diseased to sell whole and should be made into pasta sauce, etc) and that is also cost effective will take significantly longer than a computer to drive a truck, which will also take longer than a robot to build a truck. Like many historic economic overhauls (when the combustion engine came out, when refrigeration became available to the masses, when electricity became wide-spread), it will probably happen in spurts and stutters and will have massive ups and downs. I think the only think we've seen that will be close to it is the internet, and remember how that was supposed to put everything out of business overnight? It's been much more gradual than the experts predict.

I will tell you that I hope that one of the benefits from automation is more reasonable work weeks. Like, actual 40 hour weeks instead of the common 50-60 most professionals are stuck in (and even many non-professionals, when you account for "manditory" hour-long lunches, lengthy commutes, off-the-clock fuckery, etc).

edit: if we really are that close to self-driving cars and shit, doesn't that mean that Uber, Lyft, etc, are giant fucking bubbles that will only be around for a decade or so?

« Last Edit: March 20, 2017, 07:16:40 PM by Drain The Swamp And Fill It With Piss »

The only ones "subverting" the forum here are the swole cru/wn/alt rightards who, by their own admission, want to change this forum from what it was, was intended to be, and what the former and current owners want it to be.

edit: if we really are that close to self-driving cars and shit, doesn't that mean that Uber, Lyft, etc, are giant fucking bubbles that will only be around for a decade or so?

Uber is one of the main players in self-driving vehicle development, and it may be why they got into the ride-sharing business in the first place; both to make money to fund development, and to get a boatload of data about path-plotting and traffic.

The influx of indian docs is extraordinarily prevalent in rural/small towns. In my entire life, I have been seen by one white doctor. The rest were Indians. One African woman one time.

I had to visit a tiny rust belt county ER for stitches a couple years back. Nurse was telling me "oh no one does stitches better than Dr. Singh, he's a marvel." I am not going to provide a diagram here to explain what happened, but I had to get an incision at the wound a month later to take out a knot that was causing a recurring infection. Like how the fuck is it even legal for someone to be a doctor here after graduating from a 2nd world med school???

*editJust to be clear, the placement of the knot (under a flap of skin) with non soluble sutures was 100% the reason it got infected.

The only ones "subverting" the forum here are the swole cru/wn/alt rightards who, by their own admission, want to change this forum from what it was, was intended to be, and what the former and current owners want it to be.

In (weak) defense of the Universal Basic Income: A Completely Gay Effort Post

1990's GEOCITIES DISCLAIMER BECAUSE READING COMPREHENSION ON SOSE HISTORICALLY IS UTTER SHIT Please read every word of this garbage here:If you assume I'm arguing in favor of UBI you are an illiterate faggot and I will only respond to attempts to debate me on the issue by calling you such, probably also calling you a jew. Being that people on this board aren't faggot Marxists, I'm going to assume every one here is well aquainted with the obvious downsides to UBI so I will not be addressing the problems, only addressing why someone who isn't a workshy faggot might think this is a good idea. I'm doing this so when you argue with retards on the internet, you will aware of the points they might come back on you with and you will be able to propose & refute their counter argument before they make it. The quicker you get to the point in the argument where they try to insult you and say you aren't worth debating, the better for everyone. Hate honestly you fucks.

The actual wimpb 888 memorial tl;dr begins here:

The theory behind UBI is this: What if you did away with the county/state/federal benefits office? What if people on welfare were not punished for getting jobs? The idea is that you do away with the welfare office by giving everyone a welfare check. No more need to verify applicant's income, have unemployment insurance, all that faggy shit.

So, to wrap your mind around this, lets start with this situation:It costs $50,000 a year to keep an inmate locked up. So lets say we take anyone arrested for theft and tell them "We're releasing you. You will paid $3,000 a month, every month, for the rest of your sentance, as long as you don't commit any further crimes." That's it, $36,000 a year and they just have to not steal, and you have saved the tax payers $14,000/year per inmate. Now, imagine if you had that predictive machine from Minority Report, only instead of finding rapes and murders, it found niggers about to steal. If the niggers don't steal, they'll be given $36,000 for every year they'd have been in prison, plus half of what a trial would have run. The savings would be immense. The obvious downside here is it encourages crime. I mean, there's no reason not to put together a plan to rob the bank downtown, park outside, and wait for Tom Cruise to repell down from a spaceship with your money.

But now here is a really fun idea: What if we just gave everyone $3,000 a month? And, here's where it gets more fun - if you commit a crime and end up in jail, that money stops coming to you while you're in prison, because its funding your imprisonment. Now you give people about to commit a crime something to think about. There's no one left with no one to lose.

Let's switch tact a minute for another thought experiment.

Imagine if every man, woman, and child got an EBT and it was reloaded on the 1st and the 15th. Doesn't matter your employment status or income, Warren Buffet gets his EBT same as Dashaun the aspiring rapper. How many EBT cards could you load up with the cost savings from when you aren't paying Lashauna and Wilmadasha to carefully peck at the keyboard with their fake just-did nails? Sure you'd still end up paying more in taxes, but in theory it'll just about wash out because you'd be getting the extra you're spending in taxes back in EBT cash. And the millionaires who can't be assed to fuck around with their EBT? More program savings.

Lets take this a big further with something that should be relevant: Tax law.

You've got all these gay tax brackets, and EIC/making work pay, all this shit, because they're trying to make sure the poors have enough money to eat but also making sure Leona Helmsley can't scam the system. Well, no need to consider that with a UBI. Taxes get much simplier. No need to have a standard deduction, everyone can itemize.

The end result here is:Crime goes down because (1) No one is "forced" to commit a crime in order feed themselves and (2) Criminals are deincentivized by not just the loss of the freedom but also their UBI payments. Government systems become much more simplified, allowing greater efficiency and less waste.

That is the non-workshy faggot hope with the UBI, that ignores the hyper inflation that would follow.

In (weak) defense of the Universal Basic Income: A Completely Gay Effort Post

1990's GEOCITIES DISCLAIMER BECAUSE READING COMPREHENSION ON SOSE HISTORICALLY IS UTTER SHIT Please read every word of this garbage here:If you assume I'm arguing in favor of UBI you are an illiterate faggot and I will only respond to attempts to debate me on the issue by calling you such, probably also calling you a jew. Being that people on this board aren't faggot Marxists, I'm going to assume every one here is well aquainted with the obvious downsides to UBI so I will not be addressing the problems, only addressing why someone who isn't a workshy faggot might think this is a good idea. I'm doing this so when you argue with retards on the internet, you will aware of the points they might come back on you with and you will be able to propose & refute their counter argument before they make it. The quicker you get to the point in the argument where they try to insult you and say you aren't worth debating, the better for everyone. Hate honestly you fucks.

The actual wimpb 888 memorial tl;dr begins here:

The theory behind UBI is this: What if you did away with the county/state/federal benefits office? What if people on welfare were not punished for getting jobs? The idea is that you do away with the welfare office by giving everyone a welfare check. No more need to verify applicant's income, have unemployment insurance, all that faggy shit.

So, to wrap your mind around this, lets start with this situation:It costs $50,000 a year to keep an inmate locked up. So lets say we take anyone arrested for theft and tell them "We're releasing you. You will paid $3,000 a month, every month, for the rest of your sentance, as long as you don't commit any further crimes." That's it, $36,000 a year and they just have to not steal. Now, imagine if you had that predictive machine from Minority Report, only instead of finding rapes and murders, it found niggers about to steal. If the niggers don't steal, they'll be given $36,000 for every year they'd have been in prison, plus half of what a trial would have run. The savings would be immense. The obvious downside here is it encourages crime. I mean, there's no reason not to put together a plan to rob the bank downtown, park outside, and wait for Tom Cruise to repell down from a spaceship with your money.

But now here is a really fun idea: What if we just gave everyone $3,000 a month? And, here's where it gets more fun - if you commit a crime and end up in jail, that money stops coming to you while you're in prison, because its funding your imprisonment. Now you give people about to commit a crime something to think about. There's no one left with no one to lose.

Let's switch tact a minute for another thought experiment.

Imagine if every man, woman, and child got an EBT and it was reloaded on the 1st and the 15th. Doesn't matter your employment status or income, Warren Buffet gets his EBT same as Dashaun the aspiring rapper. How many EBT cards could you load up with the cost savings from when you aren't paying Lashauna and Wilmadasha to carefully peck at the keyboard with their fake just-did nails? Sure you'd still end up paying more in taxes, but in theory it'll just about wash out because you'd be getting the extra you're spending in taxes back in EBT cash. And the millionaires who can't be assed to fuck around with their EBT? More program savings.

Lets take this a big further with something that should be relevant: Tax law.

You've got all these gay tax brackets, and EIC/making work pay, all this shit, because they're trying to make sure the poors have enough money to eat but also making sure Leona Helmsley can't scam the system. Well, no need to consider that with a UBI. Taxes get much simplier. No need to have a standard deduction, everyone can itemize.

The end result here is:Crime goes down because (1) No one is "forced" to commit a crime in order feed themselves and (2) Criminals are deincentivized by not just the loss of the freedom but also their UBI payments. Government systems become much more simplified, allowing greater efficiency and less waste.

That is the non-workshy faggot hope with the UBI, that ignores the hyper inflation that would follow.

The only ones "subverting" the forum here are the swole cru/wn/alt rightards who, by their own admission, want to change this forum from what it was, was intended to be, and what the former and current owners want it to be.

Rich niggers still commit crimes at 2 times the rate of poor whites so even with predictive tech, that won't work because clearly money isn't the only reason niggers commit crimes.

UBI will always fail because once it is implemented it basically assumes that resources are infinite since there is no way countries will just let Jontavious starve after he spent his $3k a month on grilz and 40s. These wastes of oxygen want to live like fucking billionaires while doing nothing. It will never be enough money for them.

Eugenics, as a result of genetic research becoming commonplace, is going to come roaring back at some point this century especially now that the evidence is mounting that genetics matter far far more than what we previously thought. There will come a point where social scientists cannot deny the data, though they will try over and over but the masses will ignore them.