forecastsmod1

Model 1 is predicting the development of El Niño conditions during the year 2002.

Figure: Model 1 forecast of tropical Pacific SST (°C) and wind stress (Dyn/cm2) anomalies for JJA 2002, SON 2002, DJF 2002/2003 and MAM 2003. Each forecast is an ensemble average of 10 sets of prediction runs initialized from wind forced model outputs perturbated by random noise. Observed data through 28 May 2002 was used to produce the forecast. Contour interval 0.5°C. Regions with SSTA amplitude larger than 0.5°C are in yellow-orange and dashed contour line are used for value below zero. The longuest wind stress arrow on each map corresponds to the value indicated on the right hand side.

Warning: The El Niño forecasts are part of an ongoing research effort at LEGOS, and do not represent official forecasts. These forecasts should not be used as the basis of any commercial, policy, or other decisions. They are strictly research tools for advancing the understanding of the ocean-atmosphere system.