Dan covered Utah Jazz basketball for more than 10 years, including as a radio analyst for the team’s Spanish-language broadcasts from 2010 to 2014. He now lives and works in New York City, but contributes regularly to Salt City Hoops, FanRag and BBALLBreakdown.

On behalf of Salt City Hoops, as well as a broader community of Jazz writers, followers and fans, let’s start here: Thanks.

Thank you for lifting the franchise back to relevance. Seven years ago, you joined a team approaching a crossroads, and when the Jazz brain trust opted for the path of a laborious rebuild, you embraced opportunities to push on the limits of your comfort zone and force the team to get better with you.

Thank you for setting a tone of hard work and improvement on the team. Not every young Jazz man over the past seven years has followed your same development arc, but certainly nobody on this team can get away with a half-assed effort when they see how hard their best player toils and how dedicated you are to getting better.

Thanks for being generous with your time and insights to reporters who bring fans closer to the game, including this one. Thanks for putting up with my bothering you for pregame audio even when you were a big enough star that you could have said, “Not tonight.” Thanks for letting me pick your basketball brain from 2010 to 2014 and share your analysis with listeners on the Jazz’s Spanish radio broadcast. Thanks for being genuinely excited when I told you that my then-fiancee and I got engaged the same night as you and Robyn, and for treating me like an old colleague when I had a chance to catch up later after games in Brooklyn and New York.

Thanks for letting us all follow along on your journey, watch you grow up as a person and an athlete. For proving people silly who dared to say, This is probably about as good as he’s going to get, right? For showing people that #improveeveryday was real to you.

Thanks for more than 8,000 points, 2,000 rebounds, 1,700 assists. For chasedown blocks. For throwing down on Giannis Antetokounmpo. For drilling a game-winner in LeBron’s grill. For 248 wins, plus the first Jazz playoff series victory since you were a teenager. For getting overwhelmed by emotion as you conquered milestones, pulled your team to April victories, and received the love of 20,000 celebrating with you.

For all of that, and regardless of what happens starting at 10:00 p.m. Mountain Time tonight, thank you. No matter what you choose next, you’ve given everybody connected with the Utah Jazz a tremendous, memorable, impressive, fun and important seven years.

But let’s get to the real talk now: you should stay.

You shouldn’t stay for others, even though it’s obvious that you feel the love of Jazz fans and the respect from those who have covered your ascent to NBA All-Star and bona fide franchise face. Stay for you. Stay because the story is better this way, the outcomes are better this way, and because you hunger for a type of greatness that is best demonstrated by finishing the transformation that you have led.

You’ve brought a once-great franchise back to the precipice of contention. Why not finish that? If the Hayward-led Jazz were to make a trip back to the Conference Finals or Finals — let alone hoist a Larry O’Brien trophy — your story would be the stuff of legends. And you wouldn’t just go down as a Jazz legend — that’s the kind of stuff that creates the legacy of an NBA great.

Sure, history wouldn’t begrudge you if you left. But it wouldn’t reward you the same way, either. You could easily go play elsewhere and solidify your status as one of the best and most complete wings of this generation. But stay and finish this journey along the trajectory that you helped create, and you’ll carve out a pretty special spot in basketball history. You already know that you can compete for titles in Utah, and as you inch closer to that ultimate goal, you can capture a legacy as the foremost face of (potentially) one of this decade’s elite teams. That’s not just the stuff of statues; we’re talking about finding your way to Springfield, Massachusetts.

There are other reasons to stay, of course. You clearly believe in Quin Snyder and his approach and commitment to a values-based culture. You know this is already an elite team; you captained this group to the fifth-best net rating in the league despite a hobbled Derrick Favors and 33 games without your starting point guard. You know that the team’s 51-31 record probably undersells how good the club is now given all the wins Utah lost due to the injury bug, and it’s clear that this group still has potentially unrealized improvements from some young players.

You understand that there are some things about Salt Lake City that make it advantageous, such as a relaxed lifestyle and low cost of living that allows you to keep more of that money you’re about to make. Speaking of money, you know the Jazz will give you whatever kind of contract you desire, whether that’s a full five-year max with a guaranteed $172 million, or something that gives you flexibility sooner.

And then there’s Rudy.

Wherever you play in 2018-19 and beyond, you’ll be next to other stars. But there’s nobody quite like Rudy Gobert. The elite roll man makes your job easier, and his length, mobility and smarts already define the way Utah is able to pressure shooters and dictate on the defensive end. He’s also tenaciously competitive, and has a mindset and commitment that, like your own, will push the team to compete harder.

And he believes just as much in you.

“I know he likes to win,” your one-of-a-kind teammate said of you when speaking to Hoopshype’s Alex Kennedy. “I know he likes it here in Utah, and his wife and kids like it here too… I’m going to remind him that I really want to win a championship and I think we can do it. If he stays, I think we’ll have chances [to win titles].”

You and Rudy can absolutely form the foundation of a special era of Jazz basketball, and the Jazz will be able to build around that with your consultation on players and skill sets that will move the franchise forward. You’ll be a trusted partner to Snyder and Dennis Lindsey as they look for ways to disrupt the power structure — and we’re talking about a team that was already fifth best by Net Rating in 2016-17.

The present is bright, but the future is brighter with you, Gobert and Snyder crafting the next iteration of Utah Jazz hoops.

So let’s add one more “thank you” to the list above: thanks for being the thoughtful, erudite type of player who’s smart enough to grasp all of that and recognize the special opportunity you have. Other teams can offer you pieces of what the Jazz will put in front of you later tonight. But nobody can offer all of it. The statues. The legacy. The chance to be the undisputed mainguy on a top-five (already!) outfit. The unique benefits of playing next to a singular star teammate. The money. The love.

You still may opt for a change. If you do, it won’t diminish what you’ve done for your teammates, the program and the community over the past seven years. It won’t erase all the memorable moments, but it will rob us all — yourself included — of the opportunity to see where this could have gone.

Finish what you started. Not for me, not for fans, not for Quin. Finish what you started because that’s what you want, and because greatness awaits when you do.

Author information

Dan Clayton

Dan covered Utah Jazz basketball for more than 10 years, including as a radio analyst for the team’s Spanish-language broadcasts from 2010 to 2014. He now lives and works in New York City, but contributes regularly to Salt City Hoops, FanRag and BBALLBreakdown.

The advent of the free agency period is usually brings excitement. But this offseason, Jazz fans are experiencing more trepidation than anticipation, thanks to Jazzman (for now) Gordon Hayward’s free agency. Thursday afternoon he finally did what everyone expected, informing the Jazz that he will indeed opt out of his contract to become a free agent. Meetings with Miami, Boston and Utah are scheduled over the first three days of July. Come the Fourth of July, will Jazz Nation celebrate the United States’ 241st birthday and Hayward’s return, or will Gordon declare his independence from the team that drafted him?

The Jazz’s future has probably never rested in the hands of the team’s own star free agent as much as it does this offseason. Deron Williams never became a free agent and left Salt Lake City via trade. Carlos Boozer left via free agency, but many fans had tired of him by then. Karl Malone seldom became a free agent, usually opting to extend his deal prior to that, and by the time he actually left Utah, the team had declined. John Stockton’s forays into free agency made fans about as nervous as they would have been watching Mr. Rogers shop for cardigans.

Hayward is a rarity for the Jazz: a newly minted All-Star who just this season led the Jazz past the magical 50-win threshold, and who could help them advance further. He’s entering his peak years, and the Jazz still hope to climb higher with him. If he stays, the promise of the future remains with him. If he leaves, it will clearly be a setback.

Like those of us with salaries measured in thousands instead of millions, players want to get paid, and Hayward is no different. In the next few days, he will get at least three offers with a starting salary of roughly $29.7 million. Only the number of years and the size of the raises will differ. Based on his talent, development, and the current pay structure in the NBA, he deserves every penny.

But tweets like these reveal the conundrum that is free agency:

One thing I have been told is that Gordon Hayward is hoping that the Jazz will re-sign George Hill.

Summing up: in addition to getting paid, Hayward also wants to win now. He wants to be surrounded by more talent as soon as possible. Hayward reportedly hopes that George Hill is re-signed. And while I don’t believe the third tweet is completely accurate, other pastures might look greener depending on how negotiations proceed with Hill and Joe Ingles.

So the question is this: can all these goals be achieved in Utah?

Hayward can get paid. But can the Jazz also re-sign Hill and Ingles and add more talent at the same time? The magic 8 ball says “Reply hazy ask again later.”

If the Jazz sign Hayward, Hill (let’s use a $20M figure) and Ingles ($10M), team salary will be roughly $17 million over the luxury tax line. Not the salary cap, the luxury tax.(3) The Jazz can find relief by releasing or trading Boris Diaw, or by trading Alec Burks without receiving players in return. In fact, giving up those both players with no salary returning would take the Jazz out of luxury tax territory – barely.

But where’s the improvement, the additional talent Gordon Hayward wants to see if he’s to sign?

Rookies? Donovan Mitchell, Tony Bradley, and Nigel Williams-Goss probably don’t figure too prominently in Hayward’s mind, although hopefully at least Mitchell can work himself into the rotation this season.

Expiring cap space? The Jazz have a ton of cap space expiring June 30, but using that space only adds to the tax figures above (unless an acquisition makes signing Hill or Ingles unnecessary), so this must be used with caution.

Free agency? At 10:00 pm MDT Friday night, the Jazz are once again an over-the-cap team (and probably over-the-apron pending other moves). Free agent acquisitions are limited to the one of the Mid-Level Exceptions and the Bi-Annual Exception, so please resist the urge to suggest signing Jrue Holliday, Paul Millsap, or other above average players unless Hayward and Hill both depart.

Trades? The Jazz have eight tradeable players (I’m not counting Rudy Gobert) and several presumably middling draft picks in upcoming years. There will be opportunities here, but the Jazz will have to carefully weigh the cost of both the trade itself and the long-term salary implications.

There are combinations that would work, but they are reliant on free agents or trade partners agreeing. It looked so easy last summer, when a certain 73-win team easily jettisoned unneeded players, enticed Kevin Durant to join them, then added a rotation player in Javale McGee late in the game. Needless to say, that doesn’t always happen. Free agents and trade partners don’t always say yes, and the Warriors were a historically good team in a better cap position than the Jazz are now.

We’ve heard that the Jazz will pay the luxury tax for the right team, but it would be difficult to move $17 million into the tax to bring back essentially the same team unless the Jazz brain trust once again tries to sell the concept of improvement from within. Would Hayward buy it?

Probably not, so assuming the latest chatter is accurate, the Jazz have their marching orders: add some external talent, re-sign Hill & Ingles, and pay Hayward.

Dan covered Utah Jazz basketball for more than 10 years, including as a radio analyst for the team’s Spanish-language broadcasts from 2010 to 2014. He now lives and works in New York City, but contributes regularly to Salt City Hoops, FanRag and BBALLBreakdown.

The summer of nerves continues for Jazz fans, who feel a jolt of anxiety every time someone utters the word “Boston” anywhere near Gordon Hayward’s name. In roughly a month, the Jazz star’s immediate future will be clearer, but that’s going to make June feel awfully long across the Wasatch Front.

We already looked at the teams in both the West and the East that could feasibly make a play for Hayward when he inevitably opts out of his contract to become an unrestricted free agent on July 1 and nearly double his salary. But there’s one team whose case we haven’t made yet: his.

The Utah Jazz have quite a bit going for them in their bid to re-sign the first-time All-Star. And hey, GM Dennis Lindsey is a busy man, so let’s help the man out a little. Here are the bullet points that the club’s basketball boss should be armed with when he meets with Hayward at the beginning of next month. We’ll examine their potential pitch and selling point, starting with the one that towers above all others — 2.16 meters above the others, in fact.

Play alongside a singular star

There are a few things that no other team can offer Hayward: more money, a five-year contract, mountain views and easy access to Crown Burger. But there’s some bigger thing that no other team can offer Hayward, and it has to do with the number 27.

No matter where Hayward winds up, he’ll have other stars to help him on his quest for jewelry. But teams like Boston, Indiana and Miami can’t offer him a chance to play with someone quite like Rudy Gobert.

Hayward has spoken at length this season about the way his All-NBA teammate defines the team’s identity and makes everybody’s jobs easier. Utah’s defensive scheme revolves around aggressiveness at the point of attack – something the Jazz can get away with because of the giant safety net behind perimeter defenders. It allows the Jazz to defend well against a modern NBA where the threat of three-point offense has proliferated to all-time levels. It’s easy to ignore the impact of Gobert – an elite paint protector – on the perimeter, but the reality is that his presence allows guys like Hayward to play peskier defense. Hayward’s defensive reputation has consequently grown, part of the résumé that propelled him to the All-Star game.

But Rudy’s more than a big body who can intimidate drivers. He’s also an elite rim diver, an enormous pick-and-roll target for Hayward and others because of his 9’7” standing reach, surprising agility in traffic, and improving handle. Every opposing coach cooks up a unique approach to defending the Jazz, but Rudy’s prowess as a catch-and-stuff specialist has spooked a lot of Jazz opponents into playing way back on his rolls, or even bringing help from the corners. That gives Utah’s ball-handlers and floor-spacers a lot of opportunities to pull up behind a screen or let one fly off the catch. So Rudy is no longer just a player who’s making things easier for his teammates on defense. He and Hayward have become a symbiotic tandem on offense; scheme for one of them in pick-and-roll scenarios and the other can cause you pain.

Gobert is also fiery and fierce, a pathological competitor who hates settling for anything less than excellence. It would be unfair to Hayward, Derrick Favors and even coach Quin Snyder to say that Gobert has created a winning culture in Utah, but he has certainly helped magnify it by demanding a lot from himself and others and by sharing some of the burden of vocal leadership.

Bottom line: Gobert is just unique. Other potential Hayward suitors can also point to their own star players, in some cases even all-league talent like Gobert. But there are other guys who play in the Isaiah Thomas mold. Paul George is potentially a great player, and Goran Dragic is an underrated playmaker, but neither guy broke the mold.

There’s nobody quite like Rudy Gobert, though, and the Jazz will surely remind Hayward of that as they lay out their case.

Be the main guy on a 50-win team

Broadly speaking, there are two kinds of teams that could make a run at Hayward: teams who could offer him the chance to be the main guy on a team that’s building toward relevance, and teams who are already very good and would like Hayward to complement their existing star core.

Neither is a bad option, but the Jazz are in a unique position to offer him a role as THE guy on a team that’s already an elite squad.

If Hayward were to land in Miami or Phoenix, he would likely assume the star mantle, but find himself taking a backward step in terms of the process of creating a contender. He has already gone through the laborious steps of climbing from one of the worst records in the league (in 2013-14) to fringe contention. Why start that over, or join some other project that’s in progress?

Conversely, he could be another piece on a top-10 team. If he joined San Antonio, he wouldn’t even be the best player at his position, and either Kawhi Leonard or he would have to play some unnatural minutes to play together. In Boston, there would be instant intrigue as to whether the team was Hayward’s or Thomas’ domain, and that’s without taking into account veteran star Al Horford and the steady flow of lottery picks that could eventually challenge the pecking order.

Hayward seems like the type of guy who aspires to greatness, to a legacy. Granted, that’s an oversimplification: it’s not that linear, and I don’t pretend to know his psychology when it comes to valuing help over star status. But why choose? If he stays in Utah, he’s going to be regarded as a (the?) primary author of the Jazz’s success. If Utah takes another mini-leap next season and wins 55 games or so, then Hayward is both the main protagonist AND in an elite situation. And 55 is doable.

Which leads us to…

Utah is better than its record

Consider that Utah scored 51 wins and the fifth-best net rating in the NBA last season. Now consider that Favors was never right, starting guard George Hill missed 33 games, Rodney Hood struggled with knee problems all year, and the Jazz only played four games all year where all of their players were fully available. A fully healthy Jazz wins more than 51, no doubt.

OK, you can’t count hypothetical wins, but some metrics conclude that the Jazz lost as many as nine wins to injury last season. So as Hayward considers the current baseline as a point of departure for launching into legit contention, it’s important that he recognize: his Jazz are not a 51-win team.

Chance to finish as an all-time franchise great

Rhetorical question: where does Hayward rank right now on the list of all-time Jazz men? Certainly behind John Stockton and Karl Malone. After that? Adrian Dantley had a better peak, but left on somewhat acrimonious terms in the middle of his career. Pistol Pete was one-of-a-kind and fun as hell, although he barely played in the franchise’s Utah days. Jeff Hornacek and Mark Eaton were complementary players, albeit great ones. The more modern iteration of the Jazz produced four All-Stars – Andrei Kirilenko, Carlos Boozer, Deron Williams and Mehmet Okur – but Hayward has already matched the Jazz longevity of all but AK.

In other words, we’re starting to get to a point where you can make an argument for Hayward in the top five, four, maybe even three – and he’s just seven seasons in. His all-time franchise ranks say it’s not crazy. He’s already in the top 10 in minutes (10th), scoring (8th), assists (8th), three-pointers (2nd), steals (9th) and career win shares (10th). If he signed another four or five year deal with the Jazz, he’d probably finish that stretch in the top five across the board, including No. 3 in all-time Jazz points.

Does that matter to Hayward? We can only guess. But we’re talking about statue territory there.

Snyder and the staff

Since Hayward’s relationship with Celtics coach Brad Stevens is constantly referenced by the punditry, it’s only fair to mention: he also seems to really love working and developing under Snyder. There is a ton of mutual respect there, as evidenced by Hayward’s whole tone whenever he’s asked to speak about what his relationship with the coach has done for him.

And it’s not just the head guy, either. Hayward credits the rest of the staff for his ascent to stardom, and rightfully so. Early summer mornings, targeted offseason plans and countless individual skill sessions have helped turn a scrawny kid from Brownsburg into a top-20 NBA player. Hayward deserves the lion’s share of the credit for putting the work in, but the fact that he recognizes and values how Utah’s developmental culture has allowed him to unleash his greatness can’t hurt the Jazz’s case.

Playing for fans who love him

Hayward seemed sincerely touched, almost giddy, at the love shown by fans behind the unique, fan-driven “Stayward” campaign. Sure, he’ll be appreciated by fans no matter where he plays, but it’s different in Utah. These fans watched Hayward grow up. They were there for the 2010 arrival of a gawky but promising kid who needed his parents’ help to buy toilet paper, and they’ve witnessed every step of the transformation since. There’s something almost propriety or parental about the way fans view their guy.

Money probably won’t be a driving factor, but Lindsey would be negligent not to remind Hayward that he can get a far bigger payday from the Miller family trust than from any other ownership group.

Utah can offer the same $30.3 million starting salary as any team, but they can offer raises in yearly increments of $2.4 million instead of $1.5 million. They can also offer an extra year, meaning he could get $175 million in guaranteed money from Utah. The most any other team could guarantee is around $130 million.

Hayward may not want the five-year deal; he may choose to bet on his chances of making All-NBA and becoming eligible for a higher salary sooner. But if he wants security, and the greatest amount of guaranteed salary, that’s a selling point for Utah.

A unique market

No, Salt Lake City is not Los Angeles, New York or Miami.

At the same time, it’s not L.A., New York or Miami. That’s not exactly a drawback. There’s something to be said for the simplicity, convenience and laid-back demeanor of the Beehive. Instead of sitting on SoCal’s Interstate 5 or fighting traffic over the Manhattan Bridge, Jazz players can get to practice from just about anywhere in the valley in about 15 minutes. Then, after practicing at a newly remodeled facility that’s supposedly going to have the league’s preeminent development capabilities, they can go home to their comfortable homes in with giant yards and picturesque mountain views.

Are there facets in which bigger, sexier markets beat out SLC? Sure, easily. But Jazz country has its advantages, too, not the least of which is an elevation that provides a solid advantage to home teams.

The only .600+ team that can offer the max without raiding its core

We talked about this in the first two parts of this series, but only X teams can easily get to $30.3 million in cap space without swinging trades or letting stars leave in free agency. X of those teams are in the lower third of the league in win percentage, and the other X are in the middle of the pack. Literally no other top-10 team can do it without some maneuvering and sacrifices.

Boston would have to let a number of rotation players walk in free agency, plus still make at least one move involving either Jae Crowder or (more likely) Avery Bradley. Doesn’t a thinning of their rotational core make them slightly less attractive? San Antontio can’t get there unless Manu Ginobili retires, Dewayne Dedmon and Patty Mills walk, they give away Danny Green for nothing… and even then, they likely have to dump either Pau Gasol or – if they really decide to shift directions – LaMarcus Aldridge. The Clippers can’t sniff max cap room without at least one – and maybe both – of their main guys leaving.

You built this

Perhaps the most emotionally compelling argument that the Jazz brass can make is that this isn’t the Jazz’s project that he’s a part of – it’s as much his as anybody’s. Largely on the basis of his improvement, the team has been able to climb back to relevance. He’s lived every step of that journey. Why stop now?

I enjoy hiking, and when I was a teenager I did a lot of backpacking trips with friends and scout groups. On one trip, we were within a few hundred feet of the summit of Lamotte Peak in the Uintah range, Utah’s third-highest point. The journey there was beautiful but arduous, so a few guys from our group deciding that they didn’t have the energy to traverse a somewhat treacherous-looking snowy ridge. They decided they got close enough, and turned back. My scout leaders insisted that, rather than let these teenagers barrel down the mountain unsupervised, we all had to follow suit. I made 99% of the gorgeous, challenging trip to the summit, but to this day I’ve never crossed that final icy portion.

Right now, Hayward is standing where I stood on Lamotte Peak. He has climbed all this way with the Jazz – why turn around and abandon the journey?! Sure, free agency could plop him on some other mountain, maybe even close to the top. But the only way to complete this journey is to complete this journey. If he turns back now, he’ll always wonder what those last few steps could have been like.

Author information

Dan Clayton

Dan covered Utah Jazz basketball for more than 10 years, including as a radio analyst for the team’s Spanish-language broadcasts from 2010 to 2014. He now lives and works in New York City, but contributes regularly to Salt City Hoops, FanRag and BBALLBreakdown.

Dan covered Utah Jazz basketball for more than 10 years, including as a radio analyst for the team’s Spanish-language broadcasts from 2010 to 2014. He now lives and works in New York City, but contributes regularly to Salt City Hoops, FanRag and BBALLBreakdown.

With the basketballs back on the rack and the locker stalls cleaned out, the next six and a half weeks in Utah Jazz territory will primary be about three things:

Gordon. Daniel. Hayward.

As a series of newly unveiled, fan-funded billboard around the Salt Lake Valley will attest, the anxiety around Hayward’s imminent free agency is high among Jazz faithful. The All-Star forward will be an unrestricted free agent on July 1, when he can agree to terms with Utah or any other NBA team. Unlike in 2014, the Jazz don’t have matching rights, so if Hayward agrees with another team, his seven-year run in Utah is over.

How much do Jazz fans need to worry? Here’s a look at the threat level behind all 29 of Utah’s competitors, starting today with the Eastern Conference.

Atlanta Hawks

Cap situation: It really all depends on Paul Millsap. If he walks, the Hawks will have the ability to create a max slot, but only if they make restricted free agent Tim Hardaway Jr. wait for his payday. If Millsap opts in, or if he opts out but the Hawks keep his rights, Atlanta will probably operate as an exceptions team.

Why Jazz fans should be afraid: The Hawks aren’t terrible (although they finished closer to the 11th seed than to #1 Boston).

Why they shouldn’t: OK, all joking aside… not much of a threat here. For the Hawks to have any financial shot at Hayward, they’d have to sacrifice their lone remaining All-Star. Even with Millsap, the Hawks had a 43-win team last season, so without him, Hayward would be signing up for another tough rebuild.

Threat level assessment: Eh.

Boston Celtics

Cap situation: With $6.1 added in for their No. 1 overall pick, Boston is just shy of a max slot even if they waive Tyler Zeller and make playoff hero Kelly Olynyk wait for his payday. But they can easily get to Hayward’s $30.3M number by offloading a role player or two.

Why Jazz fans should be afraid: Some of the most commonly cited reasons are probably overplayed, but we’ll get to that in a second. If you’re not at least a little bit afraid of Boston, you’re not paying attention. They have a talented roster that scored 53 wins and subsequently has ridden the No. 1 seed all the way to the Eastern Conference Finals. They’re one of a very few teams who can offer Hayward a better baseline level of quality than the Jazz can, at least as measured by record, and their cap and pick situations will allow them to sell Hayward on the idea that, at 53 wins, they’re still on their way up the ladder. Regardless of how chummy you believe Hayward is with Celtics coach Brad Stevens, that’s a pretty compelling pitch to a player who has said his decision will come down to winning.

Why they shouldn’t: The Stevens relationship might be overblown if you consider that Utah’s own Quin Snyder has coached Hayward in 240 regular season and playoff games, plus helped him reach an All-Star level and convert the Jazz into a 50+ win outfit in its own right. I’m sure Hayward is nostalgic for his Butler days, but he’s also a pro who undoubtedly respects what Snyder and the team have meant to his career arc. Also, Utah was better than Boston in terms of net rating, even with the highest Wins Lost to Injury metric in the NBA. So the case could be laid out to Hayward that, when you back out all the games missed by key players, the Jazz are already ahead of the Celtics. And I don’t think Boston winning the draft lottery will really be a factor. Hayward knows as well as anyone that even high lottery picks need some time to learn the NBA game, and by the time a Markelle Fultz type of guy cracks that code, some of Boston’s key guys will have come up on free agency.

Threat level assessment: Keep a very close eye on the sneaky leprechaun.

Brooklyn Nets

Cap situation: Brooklyn could open up a max cap slot just by waiving their non-guaranteed contracts and declining the team option on KJ McDaniels. Or alternatively, they could keep one or two of those guys and then find a taker for the very affordable Justin Hamilton, a product of Utah’s Lone Peak High School. So yeah, they can get to $30.3M if they want to.

Why Jazz fans should be afraid: Hayward could have access to all of the kombucha spots and vintage vinyl stores he could ever imagine. OK, and the area is pretty cool.

Why they shouldn’t: Unless Hayward really wants a place with plenty of bike paths to ride his fixie, there’s nothing to worry about here. Brooklyn is coming off a season as the NBA’s worst team, and they don’t seem to have a clear path back to relevance for some time. Hayward’s not going to want to do another full rebuild.

Threat level assessment: Hayward will pay as much attention to the Nets in free agency as pedestrians on the Brooklyn Bridge pay to cyclists in the bike lane.

Charlotte Hornets

Cap situation: Well over the cap, with no clear way of getting under at all, let alone by $30 million. That said, if they got Hayward interested, they could always see if Utah is interested in facilitating a sign-and-trade.

Why Jazz fans should be afraid: Hayward already signed a contract with Charlotte once: the 2014 max offer sheet that Utah matched. That at least adds some intrigue in that we know the Hornets once like Gordon and he liked them back.

Why they shouldn’t: Here comes the big “but.” Charlotte just isn’t that good anymore. They finished five games out of the Eastern Conference playoffs, and they’re overextended financially to a point where it’s hard to imagine how they get better anytime soon. And even if Hayward said yes, it’s a non-starter unless the Jazz are interested in taking salary back from the Hornets — why would they aid and abet Charlotte in stealing their own franchise star away from them?

Threat level assessment: Can’t afford him.

Chicago Bulls

Cap situation: Soooo many variables. Will Dwyane Wade walk? Will the Bulls keep Rajon Rondo’s whose salary is only partially guaranteed? Which of their four restricted free agents will they try to keep? The Bulls could get to about $60 million in cap space (less roster holds), or they could operate as an exception team instead.

Why Jazz fans should be afraid: Because Chicago is closer to Brownsburg, Indiana.

Why they shouldn’t: Outside of proximity to the parental set, it’s hard to find a reason to be really terrified here. As presently constituted, the Bulls are barely a .500 team, and to have any chance at sniffing Hayward’s pay range, they’d have to lost multiple rotation players. If they were to aggressively change course in June, say, by trading Jimmy Butler for the No. 1 pick, then that might signal their intent to clear max cap space, but then they’re a rebuilding team that Hayward probably wants no part of.

Threat level assessment: Not a fit.

Cleveland Cavaliers

Cap situation: No chance of creating cap space.

Why Jazz fans should be afraid: The King is the King. Who wouldn’t want to play alongside the greatest basketball player on the planet, a guy who is compiling a case to be considered the GOAT?

Why they shouldn’t: Because Cleveland is likely a tax-paying team next season, even the S&T option is off the table. The Cavs just don’t have a means of adding Hayward.

Threat level assessment: Already spent their allowance.

Detroit Pistons

Cap situation: Over the cap unless Aron Baynes (PO) and their restricted free agents walk. And even then, they can barely create enough space to make it advantageous to operate as a cap team instead of just keeping their $8.4M midlevel.

Why Jazz fans should be afraid: Another team that’s closer to Ma and Pa Hayward, but that’s about all I can muster on behalf of the 37-45 Pistons.

Why they shouldn’t: Detroit isn’t even a rebuilding team — they’re a team that was trying to be good and still came up four wins shy of .500. They also can’t afford Gordon without the Jazz being interested in a S&T package, and nothing they have in his salary range would really interest the Jazz.

Threat level assessment: Don’t see it happening.

Indiana Pacers

Cap situation: It would require letting some rotation-quality players walk, but the Pacers could get to $30 million.

Why Jazz fans should be afraid: Now we’ve arrived at the team I consider a stealth threat, and not just because Banker’s Life Fieldhouse is 14 miles as the crow flies from Hayward’s high school gym. Pacers star Paul George reportedly admires Hayward and would love to play with him. The pair, drafted back-to-back in 2010, would make possibly the most dynamic wing duo in the league: two guys who are elite scorers and have the ability to play lockdown wing defense. But more than anything it’s the human element that’s scary here. People forget that these dudes are human, and the opportunity for Hayward, a family man, to raise his two daughters close to his family has to be a little appealing, right?

Why they shouldn’t: That said, not every 27-year-old millionaire wants to live down the street from his mom and dad. Hayward seems comfortable in Utah (and has an extra house in SoCal), and with the monetary difference in what the Jazz could offer him, he could charter planes to take his kids to visit Grandma and Grandpa just about as often as he’d like. Also worth mentioning: to clear enough room for Hayward, the Pacers wouldn’t have a ton of ways left to put talent around those two and standout center Myles Turner. Are those three enough to give Hayward the chance he craves to compete?

Threat level assessment: Certainly not unscary, that’s for sure.

Miami Heat

Cap situation: Here’s another team with a huge set of variables, and the biggest one is Chris Bosh. If a doctor jointly selected by the league and the union decide that Bosh’s medical condition is a career ender, then his $25.29M comes off their books. Even without that relief, the Heat could get close to $30.3M in space, but not quite there without trading some players.

Why Jazz fans should be afraid: Miami has been mentioned as a possible destination for Hayward, perhaps because it’s a sexy destination. Miami did finish the year with quite a bit of momentum, closing 31-10 over the latter half of the season and finishing outside of the playoffs only by the margin of a tiebreaker.

Why they shouldn’t: Is a Goran Dragic, Hassan Whiteside and Hayward core enough to excite him?

Threat level assessment: South Beach is South Beach, but by the measure Hayward has said matters to him the most, I don’t see this one making much sense.

Milwaukee Bucks

Cap situation: Over the cap unless Greg Monroe and Spencer Hawes walk. If both opt out, The Bucks still only have around half of what they need to offer Hayward the max.

Why Jazz fans should be afraid: Milwaukee has one of the more exciting roster of up-and-comers in the NBA right now.

Why they shouldn’t: However, it could be argued that their three best players are all naturally wings: Giannis Antetokounmpo, Khris Middleton and Jabari Parker. Hard to imagine where Hayward fits there, unless the Bucks just decide that with enough length and skill, they can just be a glorious, positionless, chaotic mass of arms.

Threat level assessment: Probably doesn’t make sense for them to mortgage everything just to field an all-wing team. That said, if anyone could make an interesting S&T offer, it would probably be these guys.

New York Knicks

Cap situation: They currently have about $17 million before dealing with restricted free agent Ron Baker and deciding whether to keep three minimum-salary guys. A lot depends on what happens with Carmelo Anthony.

Why Jazz fans should be afraid: LOL. Jeff Hornacek?? Skyline views?? The chance to grab lunch with one of his favorite Salt City Hoops columnists??

Why they shouldn’t: OK, maybe that was harsh, but really: the Knicks are a mess on the court and a bigger mess in the front office. They’re a 31-51 crew with leadership that just alienated one superstar and may already be wearing on Kristaps Porzingis’ patience, too. I don’t think Hayward wants anything to do with this.

Threat level assessment: Let’s just go back to “LOL.”

Orlando Magic

Cap situation: Can get to about $20M less holds if they waive CJ Watson and Stephen Zimmerman. Clearing $30M would require trades.

Why Jazz fans should be afraid: Epcot’s nice.

Why they shouldn’t: Another bad team that doesn’t have much of a realistic shot at Hayward. If Hayward cared more about the non-basketball factors than about winning, the Magic could maybe get in the room with him. But they’re a 29-win team, so he probably won’t care that much about the nicer weather and the proximity to the Wizarding World of Harry Potter.

Threat level assessment: Expelliarmus.

Philadelphia 76ers

Cap situation: They have a ton of cap space — as much as $60M less holds, depending on decisions they make about their option guys.

Why Jazz fans should be afraid: The Sixers were decent enough when Joel Embiid played that I suppose they could make an argument to Hayward that it wouldn’t be a full rebuild. Add Ben Simmons and this year’s No. 3 pick to the mix and they actually could have an interesting core in a couple of years. But…

Why they shouldn’t: That’s in a couple of years. Simmons and their ’17 selection will need some time to get acclimated, and even Embiid is still shy of 800 NBA minutes. Their project is still in the early phases, as interesting as it is.

Threat level assessment: As Ben Franklin would say: “No.”

Toronto Raptors

Cap situation: Kyle Lowry is going to opt out, but his cap hold eats up any real space the Raps could have. Even if he walks, Toronto would have to do some maneuvering (read: give some guys away for free) to get to $30M.

Why Jazz fans should be afraid: Toronto is definitely a competitive team. Plus, all those Tim Hortons…

Why they shouldn’t: A Raptors club with Lowry can’t afford Gordon, and a Raptors club without him probably isn’t good enough.

Threat level assessment: Dream on, hosers.

Washington Wizards

Cap situation: Raises for Otto Porter and Bojan Bogdanovic (both RFAs) will likely take them way over.

Why Jazz fans should be afraid: Washington isn’t altogether uninteresting in basketball terms. They were one terrible quarter away from advancing to the ECF, and even if they had to trade a star to create cap room, they’d still have two of Porter, John Wall and Bradley Beal left.

Why they shouldn’t: That said, it’s hard to find a scenario where they could even get in the conversation, financially.

We’ll continue this threat assessment later by examining the Western Conference for Hayward poachers.

Author information

Dan Clayton

Dan covered Utah Jazz basketball for more than 10 years, including as a radio analyst for the team’s Spanish-language broadcasts from 2010 to 2014. He now lives and works in New York City, but contributes regularly to Salt City Hoops, FanRag and BBALLBreakdown.

Thatcher's passion for the Utah Jazz started in elementary school with his favorite purple Jazz t-shirt, and has only grown from there. When he's not watching or writing about the NBA, he enjoys running, travel, movies, and the great outdoors.

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Melissa Majchrzak/NBAE via Getty Images

With the playoffs underway shortly, the Jazz are ready to go. After a several year absence, the Jazz will face the playoff-tested Los Angeles Clippers. The Clippers are an experienced team that relies heavily on star talent. While the Jazz may not quite have the same top end talent, they make up for it in depth. In this preview, we’ll address the wing position.

This is arguably the best group of players for the Jazz. While they’ve struggled with consistency and health with their point guards and big men, Joe Ingles, Joe Johnson, and Gordon Hayward have all been key to this team throughout the entire season, missing only a combined 13 games. These three, along with the up-and-down Rodney Hood, will make up the rotation for the Jazz.

While the wing position is arguably the biggest strength for the Jazz, it may be the biggest weakness for the Clippers. The Clippers primarily start two players who are gifted on one side of the court. JJ Reddick is an exceptional shooter, but a one-dimensional player, and Luc Mbah a Moute, a defensive stopper, is limited offensively. The Clippers will also rely on Jamal Crawford and Austin Rivers when he returns from injury, likely at some point during the series.

In this matchup, the wing position begins and ends with Gordon Hayward. As a first time All-Star, Hayward has established himself as an exceptional player that can lead a very good team. He’s averaging career numbers, and he’s shooting nearly 40% from three. While he’s struggled against the Clippers this year, shooting only 38% for 16 points in three games, he will play a huge role in this series.

The key thing to watch is how the Clippers continue to defend Hayward. Were the three games representative of how Hayward will perform, or can he step up and put up numbers consistent or better than his season averages? Mbah a Moute is an excellent defender, and he will surely play big minutes defending Hayward, particularly if Rivers is out.

What is the key stat to watch?

Both teams will need to attempt and make a large number of threes. This series could be impacted greatly by the ability of the wings to hit big from outside.

For the Clippers, this starts with JJ Reddick. He hits 43% of his 6 attempts a game, and the Clippers are excellent at getting him open looks off screens. Can Rodney Hood and Joe Ingles guard him well enough to limit his success from beyond the arc? In addition, can renowned Jazz killer, but historically poor playoff performer Jamal Crawford hit his shots? Can Mbah a Moute hit open shots? These are all key for the Clippers.

The Jazz have quietly turned into an exceptional three-point shooting team. Hayward, Johnson, and Ingles are all at 40% or better, and Hood isn’t far behind at 37%. The Jazz have been both streaky against the Clippers from three this season. Consistency from the wings is huge, especially if Hood, Johnson, and Ingles get open looks as the Clippers look to focus on Hayward.

Who is the x-factor for each team?

Clippers – Austin Rivers.

The much maligned Rivers has turned out to be a key piece for the Clippers this year. He has improved across the board, posting career high numbers and a solid 37% from three. He has shown to be a more than capable defender, and he often closes games at the small forward position for the Clippers. He currently is struggling with a hamstring injury, but is aiming to be back for game three or four. His addition could be big later in the series.

Jazz – Rodney Hood.

Hood looked to take a big step forward this season, but he has been in and out with injuries all season. The Jazz have played well without him, but when he is on the court and playing well, he takes their team to a different level. He has a record of being a streaky player, but if he can put up some consistent performances, he could swing the series in the favor of the Jazz. Look for the Jazz to go to Hood as the defensive pressure is strong on Hayward.

Who will win this positional matchup?

The Jazz have the clear advantage in this matchup, and should win. Reddick is a very good shooter, and Mbah a Moute is a fine defender, but they can’t match the Jazz wing depth. Ingles, Hood, Hayward, and Johnson will have to play well and win this positional matchup, as the real star power of the Clippers lies with their point guard and big men.

Author information

Thatcher Olson

Thatcher's passion for the Utah Jazz started in elementary school with his favorite purple Jazz t-shirt, and has only grown from there. When he's not watching or writing about the NBA, he enjoys running, travel, movies, and the great outdoors.

Dan covered Utah Jazz basketball for more than 10 years, including as a radio analyst for the team’s Spanish-language broadcasts from 2010 to 2014. He now lives and works in New York City, but contributes regularly to Salt City Hoops, FanRag and BBALLBreakdown.

An up-and-down week brought Utah two of its most convincing road wins of the year and then two discouraging losses that could impact the playoff race. This week’s all-things-Jazz recap will cover that, but we’ll also dig into a turnover contradiction, offensive droughts, and a discussion of why those who are still overlooking the club’s All-Star forward are wrong.

It’s been a tremendous February for Gordon Hayward.

He played in his first All-Star game, had his highest-scoring month ever and led his team to a career-high 15 games over .500.

And yet, weirdly, not everybody got the memo. Just in the last week, Hayward’s credentials have been debated by two pundits and a player who apparently haven’t been paying attention.

First, a column ran on The Ringer that used Hayward as exhibit A in what Juliet Litman called a lack of “bona fide celebrities” at All-Star weekend. Then ESPN’s Brian Windhorst acted surprised on a podcast that Hayward was being mentioned in the same context as Paul George and Jimmy Butler. And finally, fellow All-Star John Wall complained about “no name guys” getting calls.

(To be clear, Wall didn’t mention Hayward by name, but since the forward and teammate Rudy Gobert combined for 22 of Utah’s 32 free throws against the Wiz, it’s a safe bet that’s who he was talking about.)

It’s a weird moment in Hayward’s character arc for so many people to be looking down their nose at his stardom. He literally has never played better, never been on a better team, never authored so many highlight plays in such a short stretch, and in general has never been as much a part of the broad NBA consciousness.

So why does everybody still discount Gordon Hayward, even at the acme of his career thus far? Probably because he’s a different breed of star. Hayward isn’t the type to demand shots or hijack possessions. He can take over when he needs to and, truth be told, should probably be a bit more assertive at times. But he really trusts the structure and flow of the offense in a very selfless way — he wants to make the right basketball play every time, and that looks different than what some people expect to see from superstars. But he’s also not merely a catch-and-shoot guy racking points as a system player. He’s more complex than either of those polar representations.

There are 15 wings in the NBA this season who average at least 20 points per game on 25% usage or higher — in other words, these are the league’s real star wings. Hayward ranks precisely at the group’s mean in time of possession at 3.4 minutes per game and in time per touch at 3.2 seconds per touch. He’s not one of the ball-dominant star wings like LeBron James or DeMar DeRozan, but he’s also controlling the rock far more than Klay Thompson, Harrison Barnes and Jabari Parker.

The way he uses his possessions further speaks to his versatility as a main option.

The 15 guys average 6.5 pace-adjusted points off drives, and Hayward averages 6.0.

They average 4.3 catch-and-shoot points, Hayward averages 4.9.

And the group’s assists create 9.7 pace-adjusted points for their teammates, including Hayward’s 9.5.

In other words, he’s the Swiss Army Superstar. He can hang with the best of the league in just about every way. He’s not a full-time driver like DeRozan or Jimmy Butler, nor is he an exclusive sniper like Klay Thompson or Bradley Beal. He does all those things, and does them well.

Actually, the player who is most like him at the offensive end in that way — performing right along with this elite peer group in every way — is Kawhi Leonard. Like Hayward, Leonard is right in line with the performance of this group in (6.4 per 100 team possessions), points off the catch (4.5) and points assisted (9.5). That’s pretty special company.

People will continue to look past Hayward because he doesn’t hawk the ball or drive every time he touches it, but he’s one of the most complete star wings in the league right now.

Let’s not sugarcoat things: this week’s two losses could come back to the bite the Jazz.

Losing to Oklahoma City in their gym is understandable, but hurts given that Utah led by two possessions late and now needs a win on March 11 to avoid potentially sliding all the way to seventh. Losing at home to Minnesota, though… that’s a bit more disappointing.

Every good team loses some like that. Keep in mind that even 50-win teams — kind of the watermark of “hey they’re really good” — lose 40% of the time. Some of those are bound to be weird, inexplicable losses to bad teams. But it was a projected win, and when you cough one of those up, you have to get it back somewhere. The good (and bad) news is that the Jazz have plenty of chances with budgeted losses coming up; they have a whopping seven road games left against winning teams.

Going into games 3/2. Left LAC in 2nd column since they’re tied in Ls w/ the tiebreaker edge.

Their tiebreaker situation is the other disconcerting thing here. They already lost the season series to Memphis, and the best they can do against the Thunder or Clips is salvage a tie — and in both cases, they currently trail in the secondary tiebreaker. The only team in the 3-to-7 range they can still claim the tiebreaker against is Houston, but a) that requires winning in Houston next Wednesday, and b) it probably wouldn’t matter since it would be near impossible to catch the Rockets at this point anyway.

Most likely, the Jazz are going to have to finish AHEAD of whomever they want to beat.

Andy Larsen, our managing editor, had a great idea: instead of using this space to highlight a single nice bit of Jazz offense, let’s go diagnostic for a week. He asked me to look into what happens to contribute to some of Utah’s offensive droughts. Given that the group has suddenly lost five its last eight, now seemed like a good time to explore it.

One thing that occasionally happens is the Jazz shying away from a team just physically beating them to their spots. This isn’t just raw physicality – although that sometimes bugs the Jazz too. This is more specific than that. Watch as the Clippers rotate the helper into position BEFORE the ball arrives, so that there’s body in front of them at every turn. With enough energy and forcefulness, you can find counters to that kind of pressure, but some nights the Jazz just haven’t had it.

The Jazz won’t see that every night because it’s hard: the Clippers undoubtedly had to scout exactly where the Jazz’s offense would lead, and then come with the energy to anticipate and execute against it defensively. Teams can’t afford to invest that level of scouting and system memorization to every regular season game, but they certainly can in the playoffs. The Clippers clearly brought this as a game plan because of the importance of this game in the race for seeding.

But that’s not the only kind of scheme that coaxes Utah into some bad decisions. Teams that play a “contain” style defense and wall off the paint are inviting Utah’s drivers into some pretty uncomfortable pullups. Too often, they’re accepting the invitation, even when the looks aren’t great. A lot of Utah’s cold spells have resulted from settling for too many of these types of tough, off-the-bounce looks.

And then there’s the item Quin Snyder likes to mention: passing. “I feel like our passing can help our shooting, which will help our execution,” Snyder said recently. “Usually there’s a high correlation between the accuracy and timing of our passes and our shooting percentage.” In this next series we see how much harder Jazz players find it to finish in rhythm when they first have to corral a pass that was a bit off target.

And then there’s the cold reality: sometimes they just miss. Sometimes the pass is on time, the beat the rotation, they execute well and a shot doesn’t go down. It’s inevitably trite-sounding, but this really is a league where games sometimes just come down to who is making and who is missing.

“Most of the stat sheet looks good tonight. The one, the turnover thing, isn’t as good. For us, we came to play and this is a tough place to play.”

In consecutive games, Utah committed a season-high 24 turnovers in a blowout win, and then a season-low seven giveaways in a heartbreaking loss.

The odd juxtaposition reminded me of a funky stat I’ve shared in social media discussions, but never here in the SC7. The Jazz are now 19-8 in games where they commit 14 or more turnovers, and 18-16 when they cough of 13 or fewer. No, you didn’t read that backwards. The Jazz record is better in higher turnover games.

What gives?

To answer this, you have to remember that the thing that causes most of a team’s turnovers is the same thing that, generally speaking, leads to better looks within a team offense: passes that break through the defense. If a team plays without passing or only makes safe passes around the perimeter, they won’t commit many turnovers, but they’ll also have a stagnant offense that will lose a lot of games. In the Jazz’s case, fewer turnovers often means more isolation play, including with some of the ill-advised pullups we just looked at.

Remember that next time there’s a collective wringing of hands over TOs: they’re actually far more benign than we’ve been led to believe, and passing TOs specifically are actually same symptomatic of the same behaviors that fuel some of the best offenses. The two teams who commit the most passing TOs per game, according to NBA Miner’s TO detail, also happen to be the league’s highest-powered offenses, the Warriors and Rockets. In fact, with the exception of the iso-happy Raptors, the teams in the top 20% for offensive efficiency all commit an average to above-average number of passing TOs per game.

Things may feel frustrating after an 0-2 showing in the back-to-back, but remember that this SC7 cycle included two very impressive road wins as well.

Jazz 109, Bucks 95: Hayward

So many of the Jazz’s most important players were the best realistic versions of themselves in the Jazz’s post-break debut that you could make a case for Favors, Gobert and Hill, too. But the way Hayward took charge at key junctures matters even more than his 29-point line. He scored (9) or assisted (3) more than half the points in the 20-4 run Utah used to get in the driver’s seat after a bad start, and the lead was never smaller than five from there on out. Plus he had multiple head-turning plays. When you’re the best player, the best narrative and the best highlight owner of the same game, it’s kind of a no-brainer.

Jazz 102, Wizards 92: Hayward

As has been the case in so many games, you could really almost flip a coin between Gobert and Hayward here. Do you go with Hayward’s tenth 30-point game, nine rebounds, four threes and nice defensive work against Washington’s much-improved wings? Or do you go Rudy for his 15-and-20, four blocks, general paint defensive influence and perhaps the best assist of the year? Ultimately I thought Hayward broke the tie with a commanding final three minutes. After the Wiz made it close, Hayward scored off a weakside rebound, nailed a three, and then iced it with a tough-as-nails straightaway stepback. Star stuff, in other words.

4

The Jazz tried something new this week: playing with all of their players.

Truth be told, there was a single game before All-Star break where no Jazz players were injured, resting or with restricted minutes. One. Now, with the whole team available in the first three post-break dates, Utah has enjoyed a grand total of four games with its entire lineup healthy.

Per team injury reports and minutes data

9-16

Since much has been made of Utah’s lackluster record against .500+ teams, it seems fair to use the same injury info to qualify that a little. Of those 16 losses to good teams, Utah was missing at least one rotation player in 15 of them. In 10 of them they were short at least two players, and in nine of them they were down three to five guys.

HOME/away

We skipped the “Road Ahead” section this week to make room for everything else. Instead, check out Clint Johnson’s full March lookahead, and just know this: next Wednesday at Houston is a big game.

Instead, we leave you with this… It was too hard to pick one of Utah’s SportsCenter-worthy plays to close, so the parting gift is this list of links to the best five.

3. (Whispers) This might have actually been Hayward’s best dunk of the week. Alley-oop, contact, over two Bucks, had to turn/adjust in the air.

2. The Hayward dunk that got the most attention was him going right at Giannis Antetokounmpo and then one-arm hanging on the rim while he either glanced menacingly at the Greek Freak or guilt-tripped the refs about contact.

1. Gobert gets fancy with the no-look interior pass to Derrick Favors, who finishes with the reverse jam.

Author information

Dan Clayton

Dan covered Utah Jazz basketball for more than 10 years, including as a radio analyst for the team’s Spanish-language broadcasts from 2010 to 2014. He now lives and works in New York City, but contributes regularly to Salt City Hoops, FanRag and BBALLBreakdown.

Dan covered Utah Jazz basketball for more than 10 years, including as a radio analyst for the team’s Spanish-language broadcasts from 2010 to 2014. He now lives and works in New York City, but contributes regularly to Salt City Hoops, FanRag and BBALLBreakdown.

The Clayton brothers connected this week to talk about the streaking Jazz and their pair of potential All-Stars. Reserves for the NBA’s mid-season classic will be announced this Thursday evening after the league tallies votes from each conference’s coaches, and Gordon Hayward and Rudy Gobert are both on a lot of people’s All-Star watchlists.

We do a round-up of the chatter and look at which guys — and which mechanisms of the process itself — could help or hurt the Jazz men in their bids to join the league’s elite in New Orleans.

Author information

Dan Clayton

Dan covered Utah Jazz basketball for more than 10 years, including as a radio analyst for the team’s Spanish-language broadcasts from 2010 to 2014. He now lives and works in New York City, but contributes regularly to Salt City Hoops, FanRag and BBALLBreakdown.

Spencer graduated from the University of Utah and works in commercial real estate. Since the first time he saw Stockton dish to Malone, Spencer has had a passion for the Utah Jazz and the NBA. When he isn’t writing about the Jazz, Spencer spends time with his wife and daughter and cheers for the Seattle Seahawks.

Gordon Hayward is currently playing at a Super Star level. Over the last eight games the Utah Jazz have gone 6-2 while missing some key players in Derrick Favors and George Hill for various games. They have been able to do this as Hayward is averaging 26.6 points, 5.3 rebounds, 3.8 assists, and shooting 48.5% from the field through the same period of time. Only Karl Malone, Adrian Dantley, and Pete Maravich have averaged over 26.5 points per game in a Jazz season, and only 22 players in the history of the NBA have had seasons with those numbers. If Hayward were to continue this trend for the rest of the season, he would be the eighth leading scorer in the NBA, right ahead of Steph Curry, and just behind Kevin Durant.

November 20, 2016 – December 5, 2016

Is this just a hot streak, or can Hayward actually keep this up for an entire season? Has Hayward, at 26 years old and in his seventh year in the league, taken the next step to become an elite NBA player?

The Off-season

Instead of going to Indianapolis to work out like he has in the past Hayward stayed in Utah all summer. In fact, the Hayward’s wife even gave birth to their second daughter, Charlotte, in Utah. Being closer to the team facilities all summer allowed him to work harder than he ever has before in an offseason. “Just talking with [general manager Dennis Lindsey] and [head coach Quin Snyder], and all of our coaches at season’s end, we talked about getting myself uncomfortable in workouts and really pushing myself,” Gordon said. “We talked about, where I want to be. Do I want to be where I’m at now or do I want to push myself next level? So the workouts had to step up a little bit.”

He certainly did step it up and has become on of the strongest small forwards in the league. The transformation of his body is evident as you compare a picture of him and Snyder in 2015 with a picture of him in the November 25, 2016 game against Atlanta this season.

The added strength has made the game seem visibly easier for Hayward, both offensively and defensively. The transformation to Hayward’s body is the first indication that this recent scoring outburst could be more than just a fortunate stretch of games.

Defensive Improvements

While the attention has been on Hayward’s offensive game, and we will get to that, he has made huge strides on the defensive end as well. According to the lineup data at NBA.com, the Jazz’s defensive rating is significantly better when he is on the court than when he is off the court, which wasn’t true last year. This year the Jazz have a 97.3 defensive rating when Hayward is on the court, but allow a 105.2 when he is off the court.

I love this defensive sequence because it is simple, yet demonstrates a little bit of everything that Hayward is as a defender. Here he is guarding Andrew Wiggins, one of the more athletic scoring wings in the NBA. First Wiggins tries to post Hayward up, but cannot get any room in the paint as Hayward is the stronger player. Hayward follows Wiggins through two screens set by Towns before perfectly cutting him off before he can enter the paint. Hayward then gets his hand up to defend the jumper as the shot clock winds down. Wiggins is much more efficient in the paint than he is out of the paint, where he shoots below the league average at 37.8%, so twice in this play Hayward forced Wiggins back into an uncomfortable position using his strength or quickness. None of this was highlight reel material, but it was textbook defense, and that sums up Hayward’s defense this year.

Here Wiggins starts tries to post up Hayward again and gets pushed out all the way beyond the three point line. Wiggins tried to use his athleticism to create separation in the form of a step back, but Hayward stays with him every step of the way.

For a while now Hayward has been known as one of the better chase-down blockers. While Hayward is much more athletic than some tend to assume, he is so good at this because he doesn’t give up on these plays where many other players do. He is willing to run the length of the court even if the guy he is chasing has a couple steps on him.

Offensive Improvements

After the win at home against Denver, and after Hayward had surpassed 30 points for the third time in a row, Snyder discussed why he is having so much success on the offensive end. “He added a comfort level on the post that I think is still going to improve. He’s shooting off screens, so he’s able to score multiple ways when someone takes something away. He’s able to have another option. The biggest thing Gordon’s been doing is he’s been defending and as a result he’s getting some things out in transition and getting some easy baskets.”

Coach Snyder addressed a bunch of things that Hayward is doing, so we are going to look at a couple examples of things he is doing that point towards an evolution in his game, not just a hot streak.

Working The Post

With his newfound strength and his 6’8″ frame, Hayward has begun to work in the post more frequently. According to NBA.com player tracking, Hayward has increased his post touches (touches that originate from a pass and reception within 12 feet of the basket) from 0.8 per game to 2.3. In these situations he is shooting 76.2%.

Currently Hayward is only shooting 30.8% in plays that he ends with a shot from the post, however, this is something that is totally new to him. Last year Hayward only posted his defender up on 2.1% of plays and is already up to 5.9% this year. As Snyder mentioned this could be something that he improves on and with his size and added strength it is easy to see why.

Here Hayward gets a mismatch that he wants with Emmanuel Mudiay in the post. Even though the entry pass is not particularly great, Hayward uses his length to calmly shoot over the point guard.

Shooting Off Screens

Hayward is shooting an effective field goal percentage of 57.8% in catch and shoot situations this year, which is up from last year’s 53.3%. As Quin mentioned, he is using screens more effectively this to get open looks. Below the Jazz run Danilo Galinari through two picks two get Hayward open. They first use a back pick from Trey Lyles to free Hayward, which sends him towards Gobert, who dishes the ball while picking Galinari one more time to give Hayward that extra second to get his shot off. Gobert is currently second in the league in screen assists, which is when an offensive player sets a screen that directly leads to a made field goal by that teammate.

Getting To The Basket

This year 24.6% of Hayward’s shots are coming from 0-3 feet of the basket, per Basketball Reference, up from 20.9%. Hayward is using an arsenal of moves to get to the basket. Here Hayward uses a pump fake after he receives the handoff from Gobert. The moment he sees that Ariza and Capela bite, he drives hard to the basket and finishes by putting Patrick Beverly on a poster. Currently averaging 1.1 dunks per game, Hayward has changed his mindset from the 2015-2016 season where he averaged 0.7.

One of the ways Hayward has been getting his dunks is simple back door cuts. This year, 9.3% of the plays Hayward finishes come from cuts to the basket, up from 3.9% last season. Here he simply catches his defender looking and sprints for the basket where Shelvin Mack finds him for the alley-oop.

Gallinari over commits to Ingles and gives Hayward a driving lane, which he takes full advantage of. What is nice to see in this play is the strong finish. From 0-3 feet, Hayward shot 62.2% in the 2015-2016 season. So far Hayward is shooting 68.3% from that range. The new strength has to be a big part of how he is finishing in traffic. Hayward has upped his free throw attempts to 7.1 on the season and is averaging 9.1 per game over the last eight games. This is a huge jump from the six per game last season that allowed Hayward to finish 13th in the league in free throw attempts. Hayward has a legitimate shot to finish top five in the league in free throw attempts this season with his new determination and strength.

Hayward shows the creativity that can make him special near the restricted area where he is shooting 64.7%, 5.7% better than last year. He seems to have spent a lot of time working on his timing. Last season he could often get caught releasing his shot on his down. He now seems to be using a variety of footwork so that he can go up strong and shoot at the apex of his jump.

Decision Making

Hayward’s decision making is the thing that was most often critiqued last year as he showed a tendency to turn the ball over as the defenses keyed in on him late in games. This year the swingman’s turnovers are down by 0.6 per game and his turnover percentage is down from 12.5% to 8.9%. Not only has he been less careless with the ball, but Hayward’s assist percentage is up slightly, from 18.2% last year to 19.3% this year. Hayward and George Hill have only played five games together, but it is a little surprising to see that Hayward’s usage rate is up to 29.1% of the team’s possessions when it was at 25.7% last year.

This year Hayward seems to be reading the defense and making the right play faster than we have ever seen from him. In the play below Hayward initiates a standard pick and roll with Gobert. Both Clint Capela and Trevor Ariza gravitate towards him and Ryan Anderson slides over to help stop Gobert so that Capela can recover. The instant that Hayward sees the play he knows where the open man is, and rifles a pass to Trey Lyles for the three.

Or in this one, Hayward passes the ball to Joe Ingles and pretends to head across court where he meets Gobert who picks Sam Dekker. Hayward slides out to the three point line and doesn’t hesitate before he pulls the trigger. Last year I remember frequently seeing Hayward similar space and hesitating. This year, his mind is already made up two plays prior. If he gets an open look, he is going to shoot.

This is my favorite play that demonstrates Hayward’s decisiveness and change in mentality. You can see the moment that Nene gets switched onto Hayward, he decides he is going to drive and score. Using his handle and sneaky athleticism, Hayward easily puts Nene on skates and gets separation with a beautiful step-back jumper that looks too easy.

Hot Streak or The Real Deal?

While it may not be fair to expect Hayward to maintain this current level of elite production that he providing the Jazz, all the signs point to this being more than just a hot streak. Hayward put in the work this offseason to change himself physically, has become a terrific wing defender, and is embracing a new mentality as the Star of the team. Getting a healthy Jazz roster will be key to Hayward maintaining this level of play. Every single night the opposing team’s number one goal is to stop Hayward. Getting a healthy Hill, Favors, and even Burks back helps draw some of the attention away from Hayward and make it easier for him to get his buckets on a nightly basis.

Hayward is currently playing at an elite level and my Salt City Hoops colleague, Thatcher Olson, took a look at what would have to happen for Hayward to be selected as an All Star. While it will be a difficult path, if he keeps producing like he is he would be deserving of a spot on the team in New Orleans in 2017. Hayward will face his biggest challenge yet on the December 8 when the Golden State Warriors come to Salt Lake City. Going head-to-head with Kevin Durant will certainly be a good test for Hayward and will be an exciting moment for Jazz fans. A win and a great game vs the Warriors would certainly bolster his All-Star resume.

Author information

Spencer Wixom

Spencer graduated from the University of Utah and works in commercial real estate. Since the first time he saw Stockton dish to Malone, Spencer has had a passion for the Utah Jazz and the NBA. When he isn’t writing about the Jazz, Spencer spends time with his wife and daughter and cheers for the Seattle Seahawks.

Thatcher's passion for the Utah Jazz started in elementary school with his favorite purple Jazz t-shirt, and has only grown from there. When he's not watching or writing about the NBA, he enjoys running, travel, movies, and the great outdoors.

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It seems like it’s been a very long time since the Jazz last had an All-Star. Six seasons have passed since the Jazz last had representation at the big February game, by far the longest streak in their history. They had previously never gone more than two seasons without an All-Star selection.

The last five all-stars were Deron Williams, Carlos Boozer, Mehmet Okur, Andrei Kirilenko, and Karl Malone. The Jazz have averaged over one all star a year, with 42 selections in the past 40 years. It’s time to end the drought and have a current Jazzman join that club, and today we look at who that might be.

Which Jazz player will have the best chance at being an all-star this year?

The Jazz have four players who could be considered possibilities for the All-Star game: George Hill, Gordon Hayward, Rudy Gobert, and Derrick Favors.

2016-17 Jazz Stats

While Gobert and Favors are both excellent players, and some of the best in their position, neither put up the counting stats to be serious candidates. In addition, the injury troubles of Favors has likely ended his already slim chances.

Hill and Hayward are the two most serious candidates. Hill has the reputation of being a great defensive player, with playoff experience, and has always led his team to win games. In addition, his statistics this year have taken a huge jump. If he can keep up these numbers and efficiency, he will be considered one of the best point guards in the Western Conference, and a serious All-Star candidate.

Hayward has always been considered a good to very good player, but never an elite player. This year that is changing. He’s upped his game at nearly every level, using his strength to get to the line and hit his free throws at an incredible rate. The only blemish so far is a rough start from three point territory, but even that has been elite the past few games.

In the end, if the Jazz have one all-star, it will be Hayward. He has more of an elite pedigree, being selected (and subsequently declining) an invite to join the 2016 U.S. Olympic team in Rio, and is the face and longest-tenured member of the Jazz. While Hill has been incredible, it will be hard to beat out a long list of western conference point guards, including Steph Curry, Russell Westbrook, Damian Lillard, and James Harden. Though Hill’s incredible efficiency and impact on this team is helping him build a stand-out resume.

Who will they have to beat out?

This is where it gets tricky. You could argue that Gobert, Hill and Hayward are playing like All-Stars, and even deserve to make the team, but who are they going to beat out?

2016 Western Conference All-Stars

Out of the Western Conference All-Stars from last season, only Kobe Bryant is certainly out of the picture. That leaves one opening. But there are several other candidates the Jazz players would have to beat out. Damian Lillard, Karl-Anthony Towns, Andrew Wiggins, Marc Gasol, and Blake Griffin have all put up impressive seasons so far. 2016 Eastern Conference All-Star Pau Gasol moved over to the west, but he is not playing anywhere near that level this year.

Based on performance so far, Gordon Hayward or George Hill would have the best chance to beat out LaMarcus Aldridge or Klay Thompson. These two have seen a decline in their performance so far, and the question has to be asked – will the Warriors have four All-Stars?

The two likeliest candidates to fall out are Aldridge and Thompson. Both have seen a decline in their statistics so far, and it’s fair to ask whether the Warriors will have four All-Stars. Aldridge and Thompson have seen a decline in scoring and shooting, with Klay’s struggles coming primarily from behind the arc. Draymond Green has also seen a huge step down in his shooting and scoring, but it seems safe to assume that three Warriors will make the team, and Green’s reputation as a top-five defender and DPOY candidate probably makes his spot safe.

Seven of the 12 All-Stars came from the top three teams (Warriors, Spurs, and Thunder).

Three All-Stars came from non-playoff teams (Anthony Davis, Kobe Bryant, and DeMarcus Cousins).

The other two all-stars came from the Rockets (8th), and the Clippers (4th).

Three playoff teams did not have an All-Star (Dallas, Memphis, and Portland).

Being a playoff team in no way guarantees an All-Star selection. Portland didn’t land a player at the midseason classic despite finishing in the conference’s top five. (Portland was actually 8th at the time of the all-star game, but Lillard was considered on of the biggest snubs regardless.) To all but lock up an All-Star, the Jazz will likely need to be a top-4 team at the time of selection. If not, Hayward or Hill would likely be one of many fighting for the last few spots.

So, will the Jazz have an All-Star?

It will be a tough call and a close race, but if the Jazz continue to win and stay relatively healthy, Gordon Hayward will be an All-Star this year. SCH’s Dan Clayton said it perfectly in his latest piece:

“Every year, thinkers around the NBA world assume that they’ve seen the best possible version of Gordon Hayward. This has to be it, they think, his ceiling can’t be much higher than this. And every year, he comes back and finds a way to be better.”

Hayward is playing like an All-Star, and this Jazz team has some of the markers of an elite team. It’s time to recognize that and make Hayward an All-Star.

Author information

Thatcher Olson

Thatcher's passion for the Utah Jazz started in elementary school with his favorite purple Jazz t-shirt, and has only grown from there. When he's not watching or writing about the NBA, he enjoys running, travel, movies, and the great outdoors.

Dan covered Utah Jazz basketball for more than 10 years, including as a radio analyst for the team’s Spanish-language broadcasts from 2010 to 2014. He now lives and works in New York City, but contributes regularly to Salt City Hoops, FanRag and BBALLBreakdown.

It’s been a fairly positive week in Jazzland since our last weekly check-in via the Salt City Seven. The Jazz finished a successful trip, their star is looking plenty starry, and the squad is stacking up nicely as the Western Conference power structure begins to take shape.

But we start on a bit of a somber note this week. Because sadly, as we dive into the big picture, the most salient storylines are once again questions of health.

The Jazz have become pretty accustomed to playing games without a full roster, and even playing without some of their best players. So it’s hardly news anymore when another member of the team’s core shows up to the game in a sports coat instead of a jersey.

But there’s something different about this one — Derrick Favors, for almost a year now, just can’t seem to get healthy.

Back spasms kept him out for a solid month last season, then turned into knee problems. Whether related or not, he started this season with pain in his iliotibial band, a tendon that runs down the entire length of the leg, from the pelvis to the shin. It’s an annoying injury that doesn’t go away quickly, and just as Favors was rounding the corner on that, he began visibly laboring, hampered again by knee pain. Twice in the last week, he’s been shut down during a game.

The official diagnosis this time is a bone contusion, which on the surface is a good thing. No structural damage. Nothing that’s going to take a long time to heal. Bone contusion is the fancy term for “it hurts,” and it just gets better with time.

“It just keeps getting sore, really sore, on me,” Favors told Tim McMahon, our colleague over at the ESPN mothership. “It’s tough. I want to be there for my teammates, want to play, want to get wins. At the same time, I’ve got to be smart with it and just try to figure out how to make it better. Think about the bigger picture.”

The big picture is that Favors has been at something less than 100% for a solid year. Which is too bad since Favors at 100% is a pretty formidable force.

“Obviously there’s a fine line between being sore and being able to play, and then being ineffective,” coach Quin Snyder said at Wednesday’s practice. “I think he felt that he was ineffective (on Monday). Until he gets healthy, it’s going to be a challenge for everybody. Him first and foremost.”

This columnist is on record as saying that Favors is more impactful than most people realize. Missing out on his production — both in terms of statistical output and his rare blend of paint protection and defensive mobility that allows the Jazz to switch liberally while he’s on the court — is a real cost that is holding the 7-5 Jazz back. Every game he misses, or hobbles around looking visibly uncomfortable, the Jazz aren’t as good as they could be.

It doesn’t help that Utah’s other PF options haven’t exactly looked like seamless fill-ins. Boris Diaw has scored eight total points in his first four games as a Jazz man, and Trey Lyles’ early season performance has, perhaps predictably, been a bit of a roller coaster ride. Those two closed out Monday’s loss to Memphis while Favors ached and Rudy Gobert sat, and the Grizzly bigs repeatedly got over and around them for offensive rebounds and easy shots. The difference between Favors — or at least peak Favors — and that pair should be significant enough to give the Jazz a nice lift whenever the big man is ready to be more fully deployed.

So when will that happen? As has been the case for most of the last 12 months, it doesn’t seem entirely clear what Favors’ path to total health looks like.

“It’s a huge road trip for us. It’s been a while since we’ve been as successful going out east. That was a big win.”

All the hand-wringing about injuries and a mild controversy about playing time in a letdown loss to Memphis may have distracted from the fact that this was a really good week for the Jazz. Utah hasn’t performed this well on a lengthy road trip since the fall before Jerry Sloan retired.

But that’s now why I shared that quote — I include that here for your consumption because it’s yet another example of how Hayward is beginning to internalize what it feels like to be part of a good team. He sounds like a guy who recognizes that his team is for real now, and that bodes well for the Jazz and their efforts to keep the free-agent-to-be next summer.

3.61

Basketball Reference debuted its playoff odds this week, including their rankings of teams by what they call Simple Rating System. SRS measures team quality by point differential and strength of schedule, two factors that have proved pretty reliable when forecasting ahead. That’s not to say that these numbers are a crystal ball — they fluctuate quite a bit, definitely reacting to the past more than they foretell an exact future. But it’s a balanced, objective way of measuring macro quality and sorting out what’s what.

Utah’s SRS is the fourth best in the Western Conference, and since SRS is based purely on statistical inputs, it doesn’t know that Utah’s 7-5 record has been built while missing a number of games from stars Favors, George Hill and Gordon Hayward, not to mention other role players.

This week’s games against similarly-rated Chicago and Houston will probably have a big impact on SRS, one way or another, so that’s a good one to keep an eye on as Utah’s sample size grows.

7:00

OK, not a statistic, but it’s a number. That’s the time (in Mountain Standard) of the SLC Stars’ home debut on Friday night. Go watch Utah’s D-League affiliate, including Jazz draftees Marcus Paige and Tyrone Wallace. SCH’s Spencer Wixom has been keeping tabs on the Stars so far, and he’ll be covering that home opener.

Out of market fans can watch all Stars games on Facebook Live.

Wins are usually team accomplishments, but we try to find the hero of each Jazz win, either in traditional terms of because of a storyline or moment that will define how we remember and talk about a particular game.

Jazz 87, Magic 74: Rudy Gobert

Rodney Hood’s fourth-quarter explosion was vital in the come-from-behind win, and Favors had one of his nicest games of the year. But this one came down to Gobert & Hayward for me. With 20-10-8, the latter came close to the first Jazz triple-double in more than 8.5 years. He scored 20 and assisted 19 of Utah’s 87 points. But this one goes to Gobert: 13 & 13, with three blocks, but it was more than that. In a game that was defined by defense, Rudy was the most dominant player for large stretches, especially at the rim where he held Orlando to 1-for-9. During his 7.5 minutes of fourth quarter action, Utah held Orlando to four points total.

I agonized over this more than a person should agonize over an imaginary award. Sometimes the MVP of a game and the storyline of the game are the same person. Sometimes they’re not, so once again I’m stuck debating Hayward-Gobert. The Stifle Tower got the better of his rival Hassan Whiteside, had another double-double (12 & 12) and a game-high +22. Utah’s third-quarter defense was the key, and Miami scored just four points in Gobert’s 8:15 that quarter. But how do you look past Hayward’s 25-9-4, or the collection of crazy and-ones, or the fact that his own defense was stellar all night long? You don’t. He scored or assisted all the points in the decisive 10-0 run in the fourth quarter.

Game ball standings for the 7-5 Jazz.

Hayward’s first five games back included a 24-8-4 stat line and a near-perfect road trip. It also included this fun drive-and-dunk that has perhaps been overlooked both in terms of importance and play design. The Jazz were tied when Hayward threw it in another gear and took the ball to the rack with the help of a pair of screens. Moments later, he added a triple to make it 52-47, and the Jazz got to go the locker room up five instead of in a dead heat. It was an important momentum-changer.

It was also a clever play, for reasons that may not be that obvious. Take a look.

Running a guy off two successive ball screens isn’t exactly a new basketball invention. It’s called staggered screens — or just “stagger” in the parlance — and teams including the Jazz use it all the time. Defenses have to guess which screener will do what so it’s a good starting point.

But you don’t usually see teams run a stagger going down the side of the court, and that’s not precisely what this is. It’s really two separate screening actions: a high ball-screen followed by what’s called an alley screen: that blind backpick in the lane. It’s often used to backscreen for someone away from the ball, leading to a wide open alley-oop, but it worked here as an on-ball tactic because of who specifically Hood screened out.

Watch the second freeze-frame: he’s not worried about screening Hayward’s man at all. The play was designed knowing that Hayward could beat his man with the help of the initial screen at the top. Instead, Hood screens the big, the guy who in theory dropped back to contain Hayward’s drive. It breaks Miami’s preferred helping scheme, and Justise Winslow never realizes that he needs to break out of the planned scheme and help.

It works because of Hayward’s speed and Hood’s good timing on the screen. It also works because the Jazz prey on the fact that a lot of teams can defend a single action well, but struggle when things are piled on top of one another.

Thursday vs. Chicago: The Bulls had a bumpy start, but have won four of their last five, including a blowout victory at Portland that made the world take note. That’s their only quality road win, though. In terms of tendencies, Chicago is one of the least three-reliant teams in the league, and they’re good at defending (9th in DRtg) without putting their opponent on the line (#1 in opponent FTr).

Saturday at Houston: If George Hill is back by Saturday evening, then this game will feature the two most recent Western Conference Players of the Week. This will be Utah’s first look at the Mike D’Antoni-era Rockets, led by James Harden who is averaging 30 points, 13 assists and eight rebounds. Houston, unsurprisingly, is in the bottom third of the league’s defenses (108.5 DRtg), and surprisingly is smack in the middle for pace.

Sunday at Denver: Denver used a visit from Phoenix on Wednesday night to break a 4-game skid and, weirdly enough, score their first home victory. They’re still a bit of a mess, but it’s a road back-to-back for Utah, so there’s no taking this one for granted.

Wednesday vs. Denver: While this looks like a classic home-and-home set, the Nuggets actually have Chicago in between the two Jazz games. That also makes Wednesday a back-to-back for them, just their third of the season.

Let’s end with a game this week. This is our version of a baby shower game, except that instead of an actual baby, we get to forecast the arrival of a different bundle of joy: a non-losing record for the Jazz’s coach.

Snyder currently sits at 85-91, a pretty good record considering where the club was when he took over and how Utah rebuilt ahead of schedule thanks to developmental leaps. But it’s still a sub-.500 record, and Jazz nation will feel a bit of relief on his behalf once he inches past that mark.

When will that be? Get your guesses in. Enter a comment with when you think Snyder hits .500 for the first time. If the Jazz were go to on a tear, he could do it as early as 11/28 with a 6-0 stretch. More likely, it’ll take something like 7-1, 8-2, 9-3… or so on. It could take another 50 games (28-22) for all we know. Maybe it doesn’t happen this year at all.

So what’s your prediction? The stakes are high, people: the person who gets it right will earn bragging rights among Jazz fans and my undying respect.

Author information

Dan Clayton

Dan covered Utah Jazz basketball for more than 10 years, including as a radio analyst for the team’s Spanish-language broadcasts from 2010 to 2014. He now lives and works in New York City, but contributes regularly to Salt City Hoops, FanRag and BBALLBreakdown.