iM Update – June 13, 2014

Market Signals Summary:

The IBH stock market model is out of the market. The MAC stock market model is invested, The recession indicator COMP is near last week’s revised level, and iM-BCIg is also higher from last week’s level. MAC-AU is invested. The bond market model avoids high beta (long) bonds, the yield curve is steepening, both the gold and silver model are invested.

Stock-markets:

The IBH-model is out of the market as shown in Fig. 1. A sell signal was generated 65 weeks ago when the WLIg_shortEMA moved below the WLIg_longEMA. Currently the WLIg_shortEMA indicator is just above the level of the WLIg_longEMA. If the sell signal was correct then WLIg_shortEMA would have moved decisively below WLIg_longEMA, which it did not. The indicator graphs currently all have a positive slope which is usually the case during up-market periods. The IBH-model is described here and the latest rules can be found here .

The MAC-US model stays invested. MAC-US Fig 2 shows the spreads of the moving averages. The sell-spread is higher from last week’s level. A sell signals is not imminent. The sell spread (red graph) has to move below the zero line for a sell signal

The MAC-AU model stays invested. MAC-AU Fig 2.1 shows the spreads of the moving averages of the Australia All Ordinaries Index. The sell-spread is lower than last week’s level. The sell spread (red graph) has to move below the zero line for a sell signal.

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