Can Pats count on Gronk?

Saturday

May 18, 2013 at 12:01 AMMay 18, 2013 at 6:06 AM

Without Wes Welker and without a reliable man-beast at tight end, it's time to make something else work.

Patriots fans long for the early 2000s era, and for good reason. Winning three championships in four years is a once-in-a-generation achievement in the NFL, and it also alters the mindset of a fan-base forever — in good and bad ways.

The good is that Patriots fans expect a title every year — and that it's no false expectation. The bad is that, despite the team's remarkable ability to stay on top and re-invent itself, many fans will never shake the feeling that the clutch play and heady defense of those title teams is the only way to win another Lombardi Trophy.

Which brings us to Rob Gronkowski, and the old adage "Be careful what you wish for."

Gronkowski's offseason isn't going well, and reports Friday that he'd have to add back surgery during the recovery from his fourth arm surgery calls his 2013 season into question. The speculation machine overheated — "he paaahties too much!" "the Patriots aaah finished!" — but only time will tell where Gronk's head and body are at.

That's pretty much the state of affairs when assessing a football team in the spring.

But Gronkowski is the poster boy for the Patriots' transition to an offense-first outfit, and lately a defense-last outfit. At their best, the post-title defenses have been good not great. At their worst, they're below average but good enough to win.

They've been mostly at their worst the last three years, but having Gronkowski as the focal point of the offense has helped make it all work, to the tune of a 39-9 regular season record from 2010-12.

Making it work is what Bill Belichick does — part of what makes him such a compelling figure — his teams regularly do things that other teams don't do, and the end result is winning 80 percent of the time.

So now, without Wes Welker (although Danny Amendola brings the same skills to the table) and without a reliable man-beast at tight end, it's time to make something else work.

I've mentioned before that every Belichick-Brady team has had a distinct identity despite the stability of that duo, and I certainly expect a new wrinkle in 2013. There's a heck of an offensive line in place, a talented group of running backs. The quarterback (Tom Brady is his full name, wears No. 12 if you're new) has a lot of good-not-great options that he will almost certainly whip into shape. The move to steal tight end Jake Ballard from the Giants while he sat out 2012 with an injury looks more brilliant by the day.

Yes, the offense will be good. But the Gronk injury (and the recent playoff results) bring into focus the fact that the new extreme bend-don't-break approach on defense needs fixing.

The Patriots are always ranked better in points allowed than in yards allowed — but the last three seasons, it's been to the point of ridiculousness — 25th, 31st and 25th in yards allowed.

But if you look at how things usually go in the league, the Patriots should be ready to make a leap forward. The core has been growing together, the depth is there, the coaching pedigree is right. The Patriots head to camp with the tools for what should be a top 10 defense — but will it be?

Will the lack of explosion on offense lead to more emphasis on explosion on defense? I expect so. The releases of defensive tackles Kyle Love and Brandon Deaderick last week were interesting because both players had seen so much playing time, but they were very similar players — sub-elite talents that hustled to stop the run but got no push. They were good, not great, and Patriots fans are hoping that this signals a return to "good-not-great isn't good enough."

We'll start finding out next Tuesday with the first day of several organized team activities, the super-secret-unofficial start of the 2013 season. And we'll see whether "The Rob Gronkowski Story" is a great saga with a sad ending, or a blockbuster with many sequels to follow.

Jonathan Comey is sports and features editor for The Standard-Times. Email him at jcomey@s-t.com