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Wednesday, June 29, 2011

2010-2011 By the Tens -- Goaltenders: Semyon Varlamov

Semyon Varlamov

Theme: “Most art is fragile and some should be placed and never moved away.”
-- Donald Judd

Donald Judd was an artist described as a “minimalist,” but that particular style is one that cannot be applied to Capitals goaltender Semyon Varlamov. And therein might be the problem. The adjectives that attach to Varlamov might more appropriately be: “athletic,” “acrobatic,” “dazzling,” or “explosive.” Whatever adjective you choose, Varlamov’s style in goal and the achievements he has attained as a result have come at a price. In the 2009-2010 and 2010-2011 seasons Varlamov played in 26 and 27 games, respectively. Twenty goaltenders played in more minutes this past season than Varlamov played in the last two (3,087). The problem takes the form of a list (from tsn.ca):

It has become an unfortunate recurring theme in the early stages of Varlamov’s career – a susceptibility to groin and leg injuries. It is hard for him, or any goaltender, to achieve a sense of rhythm and continuity when he is in the lineup briefly, then out of the lineup for significant stretches. And it is especially unfortunate in the case of Varlamov, given that he rarely fails to perform at a high level in those instances in which he is in the lineup.

Varlamov missed the opening of the 2010-2011 season, then appeared in two games (both against Boston); in neither of which did he play well, perhaps an artifact of his early season injury. That he had lingering effects when he came back was evident when he missed 13 games after his second game appearance, not seeing his third game of action until Game 23 of the season. It would end up being a continuing theme all season. Varlamov had five instances in which he appeared in consecutive games in the 2010-2011 season: a four-game stretch from November 24 through December 1st, two games on December 12th and 15th, five games from December 26th through January 8th, two games on January 12th and 15th, and three games from January 26th through February 4th (that one broken up by the All-Star Game break).

But when he performed, he did so quite well. If you discount those first two appearances, when he might have still be suffering an injury, in none of his other five ten-game splits in which he played at least one game did he have a goals against average above 2.41, nor did he have a save percentage lower than .912. Those “worst” numbers are important in this respect; they are approximately the season averages for the Caps’ other primary goaltender, Michal Neuvirth (2.45, .914).

We spoke of rhythm and continuity above. Here is an example of the problem Varlamov had in establishing it. In baseball, one speaks often of a pitcher being a “stopper,” of being able to take the mound after a loss and “stopping” a losing streak or preventing a streak from getting started. The rough analogy here is the goaltender who appears after sitting out in a loss. Varlamov did that on ten occasions in 2010-2011, compiling a record of 3-6-0 (one “no decision”), 3.12, .896. Take away those “first games back” after losses, and his record was 8-3-5, 1.73, .939. If Varlamov had been able to establish any continuity by playing in, say, the 57 games that Tim Thomas played in, it is not impossible to think that Varlamov might have been a Vezina finalist. As it is, his ten-game splits look like this:

While his numbers improved in 2010-2011, we are left with the fact that Varlamov appeared in only one more game in 2010-2011 than he did in 2009-2010. In the former, he had to split time with Jose Theodore, although he did have his bouts with injury. In 2010-2011, the Caps held what amounted to a season-long audition to find out who their number one netminder would be heading into the playoffs, and Varlamov’s health became an issue, if not a determinant in that decision. His 2010-2011 numbers compare to his 2009-2010 numbers as follows:

Odd Varlamov Fact… Varlamov’s GAA in losses of 2.74 was still better than the total GAA of Jimmy Howard, Craig Anderson, and Steve Mason. His save percentage of .907 in losses was still better than Miikka Kiprusoff’s total save percentage (.906), Martin Brodeur (.903), and Steve Mason (.901).

Game to Remember… January 1, 2011. In the league’s marquee regular season game -- the Winter Classic in Pittsburgh against the Penguins -- Varlamov was named the game’s first star for stopping 32 of 33 shots, including all 16 that he faced in a first period that featured a lot of back and forth action. Despite an intermittent rain that played havoc with the puck, Varlamov reminded a national television audience of his remarkable skills that were first put on display in the 2009 Stanley Cup playoffs.

Game to Forget… December 12, 2010. It started harmlessly enough – one goal allowed on eight shots faced in the first period at the hands of the New York Rangers. But Artem Anisimov scored for the Blueshirts 59 seconds into the second period. Marian Gaborik scored barely two minutes later, and the rout was on. By the time the Rangers finished their scoring at the 13:31 mark of the third period, Varlamov had allowed seven goals on 20 shots (the Rangers would not have another shot on goal in the last 6:29). The save percentage of .650 for the game was, by far, the worst of his brief career to date.

Post Season… He did not have a chance to change his baseball cap for a mask, recording no minutes in any of the nine Caps playoff games.

In the end, there really isn’t much mystery to Varlamov’s season or his career to date, for that matter. He is a remarkable talent who simply hasn’t been able to stay in the lineup long enough to cement his status as the go-to number one goaltender. His absence in the second round of the playoffs against Tampa Bay (despite a season mark of 2-1-1, 1.49, .949, and one shutout) was testimony to a lack of confidence – however misplaced it might have been, given the nature of a playoff series – in his ability to play at a high level for a sustained period of time.

And now Varlamov’s career in Washington is at a crossroads. There are persistent rumors of his having an offer to jump to the Kontinental Hockey League in Russia for the opportunity to be that number one goaltender at a salary far above what he made with the Caps in 2010-2011. Whether that offer is for the rumored $4 million or not, one can only assume that the offer is substantial – Varlamov is a goalie of considerable gifts who has not yet reached his prime. Whether the Caps would be willing to push his compensation past, say, $3 million or so (especially in light of: a) Michal Neuvirth's $1.150 million cap hit, and b) the Caps’ re-signing of Brooks Laich for $4.5 million per year in salary cap hit) is uncertain, to say the least.

For Varlamov to justify such a bump in compensation, he has to prove something that he hasn’t yet proved and that has little to do with his skill. It is whether he can shake the idea that he is fragile, so that he can be placed as the number one goaltender and never moved away to the end of the bench in a baseball cap.

2 comments:

Missing 31 games still leaves 51 opportunities to start, one less than your prediction, and pretty standard numbers for most team's No. 1 goalie. I blame Boudreau far more than injuries for Varly's apparent lack of consistency in the lineup. By every reasonable benchmark, he is a better goalie than Neuvirth, who also missed significant time this year. The latter merely benefited from ill-deserved and misplaced confidence from coach buffoon.

Your work is excellent. On the one hand I wish the Caps paid you for your work rather that that fool Mike Vogel. Then again, maybe if you worked for The Man you'd end up a cheerleader as well. Thanks for consistently GREAT stuff.

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