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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 NEW DELHI 007389
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/19/2014
TAGS: PGOVPINRPRELIN
SUBJECT: THE BJP CONTINUES ITS DOWNWARD SPIRAL
REF: A. NEW DELHI 7088
¶B. NEW DELHI 6998
¶C. NEW DELHI 6606
¶D. CHENNAI 1418
Classified By: PolCouns Geoffrey Pyatt, Reasons 1.4 (B,D).
¶1. (C) Summary: Former DPM LK Advani has failed to quell
the powerful centrifugal forces that threaten to tear apart
the BJP and the National Democratic Alliance (NDA), and the
party is continuing a downward spiral that threatens to doom
its immediate electoral chances. The Sangh Parivar (family
of Hindu organizations) insists that the BJP return to
Hindutva, while party pragmatists argue for a
development-oriented election strategy. The BJP's secular
NDA allies, who want no part of Hindutva, are increasingly
disaffected, contributing to growing rumors of future
defections to the ruling United Progressive Alliance (UPA).
Former PM Vajpayee is in poor health and has faded from
active politics, and the aging Advani is no longer the "iron
man." The lack of a clear successor to these two BJP
standard-bearers has set off growing battles between the
party's second tier leadership, personified by the flamboyant
and erratic behavior of the former Chief Minister of Madhya
Pradesh (MP) Uma Bharti. The BJP needs electoral success to
revive, but the prospects are not good. Continued defeats
will tempt the party to increasingly resort to a hard line
and irresponsible rhetoric, including on issues of US/India
relations. End Summary.
Back to the Future
------------------
¶2. (C) The past six months have seen the unremitting decline
of the BJP. Prior to the May parliamentary contest, Party
standard-bearer and then Deputy PM LK Advani staked his
reputation on a nationwide tour aimed at invigorating
grass-roots support. Not only did it fail to inspire, but
the BJP lost power, falling to only 10 Lok Sabha seats from
its previous 32 in the key Hindi heartland state of Uttar
Pradesh (UP). Party morale plummeted and BJP front
organizations, such as the Youth Wing became moribund. When
the party failed to knock the Congress/Nationalist Congress
Party (NCP) combine from power in the Maharashtra state
election in early October, it replaced Party President
Venkaiah Naidu with Advani, in hopes that he would reverse
the trend.
¶3. (C) Advani assumed the leadership of a deeply divided
party. Factionalism became rampant after the electoral
defeats. Advani has waited six years to become PM, but with
his party in the political wilderness, there is little
prospect for a quick return to power. This has invigorated
the party's second tier leadership, who began to openly fight
over the top spots. Tasked with ending the squabbling,
restoring party discipline, and working with the secular
parties in the NDA to win upcoming state elections in Bihar,
Jharkhand, and Haryana, Advani has made little progress,
despite his best efforts.
Uma as Figurehead
-----------------
¶4. (C) The BJP's problems are personified in the behavior
and fortunes of Uma Bharti, the former Chief Minister of MP.
Bharti, an OBC (other backward caste), is renowned for her
ability to rouse the masses. In a party dominated by upper
castes, she is largely distrusted by the leadership, both for
her low caste background and erratic personality. Advani has
long patronized Bharti in the hope that she could increase
popular support and broaden the BJP's narrow caste base, but
she remains notoriously unstable and unpredictable.
¶5. (C) Bharti resigned as MP Chief Minister following her
indictment in an old public order case in October. Although
the BJP rallied around her and openly supported her
subsequent "flag march" around India, press reports and BJP
contacts confirm that she had made a mess of the state
administration and the party was happy to see her depart.
Upon taking over the party presidency, Advani continued to
patronize Bharti, making her one of the six BJP general
secretaries. On November 10, the newly-selected BJP
SIPDIS
leadership met for the first time in front of television
cameras. Advani began to complain of "indiscipline" in the
party ranks, chiding Bharti for her public criticism of
senior leader Pramod Mahajan, and other BJP leaders.
¶6. (U) In one of India's more sensational "tabloid TV style"
rows, Bharti then told Advani that she was the victim of a
smear campaign orchestrated by unnamed BJP leaders in the
Rajya Sabha, who "did not have to face the voters," and that
she was forced to "defend my reputation." When Advani said
the matter was "closed," Bharti refused to yield the floor
and marched out, daring Advani to discipline her. The
publicly humiliated BJP triumvirate of Advani, Vajpayee and
Jaswant Singh then dropped Bharti from the leadership and
suspended her party membership.
Hindutva Losing its Luster
--------------------------
¶7. (C) Since the BJP/NDA has been out of power, the
hard-line wing of the Sangh Parivar has been reasserting
itself, making repeated calls for a return to Hindutva.
Advani, who is well-aware that the RSS supplies the
disciplined base for what is an increasingly undisciplined
party, has attempted to mollify the hard-liners. Upon being
named to the presidency, Advani assured party workers that a
Ram temple would be built in Ayodhya, and attended the
hard-line RSS leadership meeting in Hardwar on November 6.
Vishwa Hindu Parishad (VHP) leader Pravin Togodia told the
press that he was not happy with Advani's actions and that
the party must return to Hindutva not in "months, but days."
Togodia, other VHP leaders, and RSS leader KS Sudarshan
showed their displeasure with Advani by staying away from the
Hardwar meeting.
¶8. (C) Advani has not only failed to reassure the Sangh
Parivar, but has alienated the BJP's secular NDA allies, who
are increasingly alarmed at a possible Hindutva revival.
Sections of the Bihar-based Janata Dal United (JD-U), headed
by George Fernandes, are calling for it to leave the NDA and
join the ruling United Progressive Alliance (UPA) before the
February 2005 elections. Such a move could set off an exodus
from the NDA, as other secular partners decide to switch
sides. On November 8, the JD-U passed a resolution reminding
the BJP that it had joined the NDA only after its Hindutva
planks were removed from the alliance platform. Saying that
it would "never compromise with religious bigotry," the JD-U
said it was fully prepared to "take another road" if the BJP
rekindled Hindutva. Advani met with the NDA leadership on
November 15 and, in what most analysts saw as a BJP retreat
from Hindutva, issued a joint statement that there should be
a "negotiated settlement" of the Ayodhya dispute.
¶9. (SBU) In another indicator of the ongoing decline of
Hindutva, on November 12, the Tamil Nadu state government
indicted Sri Jayendra Saraswathi, a powerful Hindu religious
leader, on murder charges (Reftel D). Although the governing
party in Tamil Nadu, the AIDMK, is part of the NDA, Chief
Minister Jayalalitha told reporters on November 17 that "all
are equal before the law," and assured them she would proceed
with the case. Although the Sangh Parivar decried the arrest
as an "assault against Hinduism," its efforts to organize
public protests have largely been ignored and public reaction
muted.
A Potential Split
-----------------
¶10. (C) The Sangh Parivar has long threatened to leave the
BJP and create a Bharatiya Hindutva Party (BHP). Hard-liners
within the Sangh Parivar are the principal proponents of such
a split, arguing that a secularized BJP could then pursue a
pragmatic development-oriented agenda based on the "water,
roads, power" slogan, leaving the BHP with the Hindutva
agenda. The BHP would then join the NDA and work out seat
adjustments and cooperative arrangements with the BJP. These
theorists contend that when the two vastly disparate
ideologies are freed of the constant tension of belonging to
the same party, they will be able to work together in harmony
and create a broad-based coalition to bring the NDA back to
power in New Delhi. The Sangh Parivar has repeatedly paraded
the BHP idea whenever it does not get its way on BJP
decisions, and few take the idea seriously. Should the BJP's
electoral fortunes continue to decline, however, prospects of
a schism will increase.
Views of a BJP Insider
----------------------
¶11. (C) On November 17, BJP National Executive Member and
RSS leader Seshadri Chari told Poloff that he was not worried
about these seemingly ominous developments. Chari claimed
that the NDA was far more united and effective than the UPA,
pointing out that the Left/Communists claim to support the
UPA but act more like an opposition. He observed that
Congress and the BJP essentially agree on economic
liberalization and most foreign policy issues, including the
need for closer ties with the US, while the Left opposes
practically everything the UPA stands for. Chari argued that
this arrangement is inherently unstable, could come apart at
any time, and that Congress should be worried about the UPA's
survival. According to Chari, these problems are far more
serious than those plaguing the BJP/NDA.
¶12. (C) Chari confided that the RSS wanted Naidu to remain
as BJP President and was opposed to Advani's accession. He
contended that Advani, along with Vajpayee, is the most
prestigious and powerful BJP leader and the party's "trump
card." The RSS argued that pushing him into the top slot was
premature and unwarranted, as it makes the party's problems
seem more severe than they actually are. In Chari's view,
Advani has restored discipline, and convinced the BJP's
second tier leaders that he is "the first among equals." He
dismissed press reporting about Bharti, saying that the party
never issued a formal suspension order, she had sent a letter
of apology to Advani, and that she would be quietly
reintegrated into the hierarchy. Chari also denied that
Hindutva was an issue, claiming that Indian nationalism and
Hindutva are one and the same, and that the "time for Ram
temple politics has passed." He predicted that with these
problems resolved, the BJP would assume the role of an active
and vigorous opposition party.
¶13. (C) Chari was less sanguine about BJP electoral
prospects, admitting that it would be "difficult" for the
party to do well in the upcoming state elections in Haryana,
Bihar, and Jharkhand. Admitting that UPA ally Laloo Prasad
Yadav was well-entrenched in his state, Chari noted that the
"anti-incumbency factor" could hand Bihar to the BJP and its
JD-U allies. In Jharkhand, the BJP is the incumbent and
fighting alone against a powerful combination of Congress and
the tribal-based JMM party. In Haryana, Chari hoped that the
BJP could entice the ruling Indian National Lok Dal (INLD)
back into the NDA to recapture the state. He conceded that
should the BJP lose Jharkhand and fail to recapture the other
two states, it would be a clean sweep for the Congress/UPA,
and a crushing blow to the BJP, with long-term political
implications. Chari's hopes for a revived BJP/INLD alliance
seem to have come to naught, as the BJP announced on November
17 that it would contest the Haryana elections alone.
Comment
-------
¶14. (C) The BJP is in trouble. The party's principal
figurehead, former PM Vajpayee, is rapidly aging and will
soon leave active politics. Advani has long waited for his
chance to become PM, but his age is also catching up with
him. The Party has not groomed a successor to these two
stalwarts, and it is not clear that any BJP second tier
leader has the gravitas and popular appeal of Vajpayee and
Advani, and can supply the necessary counterweight to the
growing popularity of Sonia Gandhi and her children.
Personality clashes between ambitious second tier aspirants
have only been contained for the time being, and the Sangh
Parivar's determination to pursue Hindutva is contributing to
growing disaffection among the NDA allies. Advani, once the
"iron man" of Indian politics, might earlier have resolved
these problems. Now, however he has only papered over the
centrifugal forces that threaten to break apart the BJP and
the NDA. If the BJP/NDA does badly in upcoming elections,
all bets are off, and the chances will grow that the BJP will
stake out an increasingly hard line and irresponsible
positions on issues of importance to the US, like economic
reform, Indo-Pak relations, and the US-India partnership.
BLAKE