A 2020 Vision for Food, Agriculture, and the Environment: The Vision, Challenge, and Recommended Action (IFPRI, 1995, 56 p.)

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International Advisory Committee

Preface

Overview

The Vision

The Challenge

Recommended Action

What if We Do Not Take Action?

Regional Strategies to Realize the 2020 Vision

Appendix

Donors to the 2020 Vision Initiative

The Challenge

Identifying, designing, and implementing actions to realize the
2020 Vision requires a solid understanding of the problems, challenges, and
opportunities for change. Through 2020 Vision research and consultations, nine
key sets of issues were identified that present challenges that must be overcome
if the 2020 Vision is to be realized. These are

These issues do not form a hierarchy of priorities but rather
are interlocking problems that must be addressed together.

For the 2020 Vision to be realized, enough food must be produced
sustainably to meet the food needs of every person in the world, and everyone
must have economic and physical access to sufficient food. Sustainable
improvements in food security and nutrition are, therefore, the overall
indicators of success in attaining the 2020 Vision.

Food security is jointly determined by access to food and
availability of food. Access to food is closely related to poverty and
economic growth: the poor usually do not have adequate means to gain
access to food in the quantities needed for healthy, productive lives. Human
resource development, including education and health, is essential to raise
the productivity of poor people and improve their access to remunerative
employment and productive resources.

Population growth and movements, including urbanization,
migration, and involuntary displacement of people, greatly influence food
security and nutrition by increasing and changing the demand for food, changing
dependency ratios and family sizes, and changing access to productive resources.
Population pressures, in combination with poverty and insecure property rights,
contribute to overuse and misuse of natural resources.

Food demand and supply trends influence food prices, the
purchasing power of both the urban and rural poor, composition of diets, and
many other factors related to food security, nutrition, and sound management of
natural resources. Whether food needs can be met depends on agricultural growth,
not simply for producing food but also for generating employment and incomes for
poor people within and outside agriculture.

Natural resources and agricultural inputs are critical
determinants of food supply: degradation of natural resources - soils, forests,
marine fisheries, water - undermines production capacity, while availability of
and access to agricultural inputs such as water, fertilizers, pesticides,
energy, expertise, and technology determine productivity and production levels.
Appropriate policies and market incentives are essential for sound management of
natural resources and agricultural inputs. Climate change is not expected to
challenge global food production in the next 25 years, but human behavior during
this time will influence the extent and effects of climate change well beyond
2020.

Food insecurity is likely to continue to diminish
rapidly in East Asia, but without new and accelerated action, it could persist
in South Asia and, to a lesser extent, in Latin America, and accelerate
substantially in Sub-Saharan Africa.

The efficient functioning of markets, especially
agricultural input and output markets, supported by governments that have the
capacity to perform their appropriate roles, is of critical importance for
attaining the 2020 Vision. Infrastructure supports efficient market
operations and allows physical access to food and other inputs. The increasing
integration of developing countries into the global economy through
international trade will benefit both developing and developed countries
by expanding markets, creating jobs, and generating income, making the 2020
Vision attainable.

Finally, without increased domestic resource mobilization
- savings and investment - developing countries will not be able to accelerate
the investments in economic growth and human resources that underpin the 2020
Vision. International assistance has a critical role to play in
supporting developing countries as they implement the actions required to attain
the 2020 Vision and embark on broad-based economic development. In addition,
partnerships between higher- and lower-income developing countries as well as
between industrial and developing countries to promote sustainable economic
growth will be essential.

The action needed to realize the 2020 Vision is not new, but it
will require unprecedented joint efforts by individuals, households, farmers,
local communities, civil society, the private sector, national and local
governments, and the international community. It will require political will and
commitment to change behavior, priorities, and policies. And it will require
strengthened cooperation between industrial countries and developing countries
as well as among developing countries. The key challenge to realizing the 2020
Vision is to overcome the lack of commitment and to develop the political will
to eradicate poverty and hunger and to protect the natural resource base.

Food Security and Nutrition

About 800 million people - 20 percent of the developing
worlds population - are food insecure in 1995: they lack economic and
physical access to the food required to lead healthy and productive lives. Their
numbers declined from 950 million in 1970 primarily because of a 50 percent
reduction in the number of food-insecure people in East Asia. South Asia remains
home to about 270 million hungry people, while Sub-Saharan Africa has emerged as
a major locus of hunger: the number of hungry people in Africa has increased by
46 percent since 1970 to 175 million in 1995. Food insecurity is likely to
continue to diminish rapidly in East Asia, but without new and accelerated
action, it could persist in South Asia and, to alesser extent, in Latin
America, and accelerate substantially in Sub-Saharan Africa. Essentially, South
Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa remain the hot spots of food insecurity.

Prospects for reducing malnutrition among the worlds
children are grim. About 185 million children under the age of six years are
seriously underweight for their age. Like food insecurity, child malnutrition is
concentrated in South Asia and increasing rapidly in Sub-Saharan Africa. Female
children are worse off than male children in South Asia. 2020 Vision research
suggests that the proportion of malnourished children in the world could decline
from 34 percent in 1990 to 26 percent in 2020. Because of population growth,
however, the number of malnourished children would decline only slightly to 156
million by 2020. Reduction in child malnutrition is expected in all regions
except Sub-Saharan Africa, where the number of malnourished children could
increase by 50 percent between 1990 and 2020 to reach 43 million. In South Asia,
the number of malnourished children may decline by more than 20 million over
this period, but current malnutrition levels are so high that, even with these
gains, two out of five preschool children are projected to be malnourished in
2020.

Hidden hunger, in the form of micronutrient deficiencies, is
pervasive, even where food consumption is adequate. Micronutrient deficiencies
have detrimental effects on human health and productivity. Nearly 2 billion
people worldwide are iron deficient, resulting in anemia in 1.2 billion; more
than half of the pregnant women in developing countries are anemic; 125 million
preschool children suffer from vitamin A deficiency, which has caused clinically
visible eye damage to 14 million of them; and more than 600 million people have
iodine-deficiency disorders.

Malnutrition in children inhibits their growth, increases their
risk of morbidity, affects their cognitive development, and reduces their
subsequent school performance. Malnutrition during childhood negatively affects
work capacity and labor productivity in adults. And mild to moderate
malnutrition has far more powerful effects on child mortality than previously
believed.

Hunger is, and will remain, the primary challenge confronting
developing countries. However, 2020 Vision research finds a paradoxical
nutrition-related trend of obesity emerging in some areas, particularly in urban
areas. In Chinas cities, for example, obesity is forecast to increase 15
percent by 2020. Rapid income growth and urbanization are associated with
changes to diets that include more fatty foods, such as livestock products, and
with shifts toward more sedentary occupations. Because obesity helps increase
chronic diseases such as heart conditions, obesity is becoming a serious public
health risk in some developing countries, as it is in many developed countries.

Poverty and Economic Growth

Over 1.1 billion people in the developing world - 30 percent of
the population - live in absolute poverty, with incomes equivalent to a dollar a
day or less per person. Every second person in South Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa
is absolutely poor. Unless concerted action is taken, poverty will remain
entrenched in South Asia and Latin America and will increase markedly in
Sub-Saharan Africa. Only in East Asia is absolute poverty expected to decline
substantially. More than 75 percent of the poor in Sub-Saharan Africa and South
Asia are rural people, obtaining livelihoods from agricultural activities or
from nonfarm activities that depend mostly on agriculture. Even in highly
urbanized Latin America, a large share of the poor are rural. Moreover, there
are more women than men among the poor, and individuals in female-headed
households are often poorer than those in male-headed households. This income
inequality has serious implications for childrens nutrition and family
food security since women are likely to spend a greater proportion of their
incomes on food for the household and on their childrens health,
nutrition, and education.

Income levels and rates of growth vary considerably among
developing countries. In 1982, per capita incomes in low-income developing
countries were 18 percent of those in middle-income developing countries and 3
percent of those in developed countries. Ten years later, in 1992, these figures
had dropped to 16 and 2 percent, respectively, reflecting an increasing
inequality. The gap between rich and poor is widening: the share of global
incomes obtained by the poorest 20 percent of the worlds population
decreased dramatically from 2.5 percent in 1960 to 1.3 percent in 1990.

While East Asia had spectacular annual growth rates in per
capita incomes of 6 percent or more during the 1980s and early 1990s, Africa,
Latin America, and the Middle East have struggled with negative or negligible
growth rates. Unless significant and fundamental changes occur in many
developing countries, disparities in income levels and growth rates are likely
to continue. 2020 Vision research projects that annual per capita income growth
rates during 1990-2020 will range from 0.4 percent in Sub-Saharan Africa to 5.2
percent in East Asia. There is, however, considerable opportunity to accelerate
income growth rates in the slow-growing countries, especially those of
Sub-Saharan Africa, and to raise per capita incomes.

Human Resource Development

Poor, hungry, and illiterate people, and those suffering from
chronic illnesses, have low productivity. Investments in health care and
education - essential for raising productivity - and access to productive
resources and remunerative employment are far below required levels, especially
in rural areas of low-income developing countries. Investment in the health and
education of women and girlsis particularly low. As a result, many
people are denied the skills, capacity, and opportunity to improve their lives
and to participate fully in all aspects of the economy and in social and
political processes. These people also represent an underused resource that
could be available to foster accelerated economic growth for the benefit of both
the poor and nonpoor.

2020 Vision research finds that rapid economic
growth alone is unlikely to reduce dramatically the number of malnourished
children.

2020 Vision research finds that rapid economic growth alone is
unlikely to reduce dramatically the number of malnourished children. An increase
in incomes is necessary but not sufficient to guarantee good nutrition. There is
growing evidence that the control of income within the household matters:
incomes controlled by women are associated with improved food security and
nutrition. Furthermore, nonfood factors such as education, health care, child
care, clean water, and sanitation are of critical importance in determining
nutritional status and must be improved in tandem with incomes and empowerment
of women.

Developing-country public expenditure on education as a
percentage of gross national product (GNP) has doubled since 1960 to 4 percent.
Enrollment in primary education has risen considerably in the developing world.
However, drop-out rates are significant (about 30-35 percent drop out by Grade
4, a share that has not improved since 1970). While almost as many girls enroll
in primary school as boys, they complete only about half as many years of
schooling.

Public expenditure on health as a percentage of GNP in
developing countries has doubled from 0.9 to 2.2 percent between 1960 and 1990.
However, about 1 billion people in developing countries lack access to health
services; not surprisingly, infant mortality rates are 10 times higher than in
industrialized countries.

About 1.3 billion people, primarily in rural areas of developing
countries, are consuming unsafe water. About two-thirds of the population in
developing countries has access to safe water, compared with one-third in the
late 1970s. Almost 2 billion people, including more than half of the rural
population in developing countries, do not have access to adequate sanitation
systems.

Food Demand and Diet Changes

The extent to which food needs will be converted into effective
market demand will depend on the purchasing power of the poor. 2020 Vision
research forecasts that global effective market demand for foodgrains will
increase by 55 percent between 1990 and 2020 to 2.7 billion metric tons
(hereinafter tons), for livestock products by 75 percent to 280
million tons, and for roots and tubers by 50 percent to 875 million tons. With
population growth, per capita demand for foodgrains is projected to increase by
less than 3 percent to 340 kilograms, for livestock products by 17 percent to 36
kilograms, and for roots and tubers by 1 percent to 112 kilograms.

Because of more rapid population and income growth, market
demand for food-grains and livestock products is expected to grow much faster in
developing countries than in developed countries. 2020 Vision research forecasts
that average per capita demand for foodgrains in developing countries will grow
0.4 percent per year between 1990 and 2020 and demand for livestock products 1.5
percent. Between 1990 and 2020, developing countries are projected to increase
their market demand for foodgrains by 75 percent to 1.7 billion tons and for
livestock products by 155 percent to 110 million tons. Population growth leads
to a significantly smaller increase in per capita demand during this period, 11
percent for foodgrains and 56 percent for meat. In Sub-Saharan Africa, however,
the amount of food demanded per person is not projected to increase during this
period, which is cause for serious concern because per capita food consumption
in that region is already below the bare minimum required for healthy lives.
Even though total market demand for food is growing faster in developing than
developed countries, developing-country citizens are projected to demand only 40
percent of the foodgrains and 33 percent of livestock products that citizens in
developed countries demand by 2020, although developing countries will account
for more than 80 percent of the worlds population.

Around 90 million people - equivalent to
Mexicos population in 1990 - are likely to be added to the worlds
population every year in the next quarter century, the largest annual population
increase in history.

Urbanization and rising incomes are associated with more diverse
diets: people are eating more livestock products and cutting back on cereals,
and they are shifting to more processed foods. Asians are eating more livestock
products and shifting from rice to wheat. Sub-Saharan Africans are moving from
eating coarse grains and roots and tubers to wheat and rice. 2020 Vision
research forecasts per capita demand for rice to grow at half the rate for wheat
and maize. Much of the growth in global demand for meat is taking place in
China. 2020 Vision research suggests that, if India makes a large shift from a
cereal-based diet to an increasingly meat-based diet, world food prices will
increase and per capita food demand in poorer Sub-Saharan African and South
Asian countries will fall as a consequence.

Changes in dietary patterns place strong pressures on the
livestock industry and, indirectly, on feedgrain production. Demand for
feedgrain is growing rapidly in developing countries. However, continued
declines in the amount of feed needed to produce each kilogram of livestock
products, because of better technologies and a shift from ruminants to poultry,
will slow the rate of increase in demand for feedgrains, thereby reducing
pressures on grain production from what was previously expected.

Population Growth and Movements

Four critical current trends in demography will need to be
addressed to realize the 2020 Vision: high population growth, rapid
urbanization, changing age composition, and involuntary displacement of people.

Around 90 million people - equivalent to Mexicos
population in 1990 - are likely to be added to the worlds population every
year in the next quarter century, the largest annual population increase in
history. By 2020, world population is likely to approach 8 billion. More than 90
percent of the population increase will occur in developing countries, whose
share of world population will exceed 80 percent. The absolute increase will be
largest in Asia (1.5 billion), but the rate of growth will be most rapid in
Africa, where the population will double to about 1.2 billion in 2020. From its
peak of 2.1 percent in the late 1960s, the global population growth rate is
expected to slow to 1.04 percent by 2015-2020. Africas projected
population growth rate of 2.3 percent in 2015-2020 will be more than double the
growth rates in other regions. If fertility rates in developing countries
decline faster than expected, as has happened in a few African countries
following increased support for poverty alleviation programs, reproductive
health services, and education, especially for women, the population growth rate
could decline at a faster rate. AIDS may also significantly reduce population
growth rates by as much as half in some African countries by 2020. Should
fertility rates not decline as expected, global population in 2020 could be
higher than 8 billion.

Most of the population increase in developing countries between
now and 2020 is expected in the cities. Rapid urbanization is expected to more
than double the urban population in developing countries to 3.6 billion by 2020.
By this time, urban dwellers will outnumber rural dwellers in all regions. This
population pressure in urban areas will create enormous demand for services.
Extreme poverty, insufficient economic growth, and lack of employment
opportunities in rural areas and hopes of employment and access to social
services in urban areas will drive rural dwellers to migrate to cities in many
low-income developing countries at rates beyond those justified by urban
employment opportunities.

As people live longer and population growth rates continue to
fall, the share of elderly people in middle- to higher-income developing
countries is growing while the share of children is falling. This shift in the
age composition of the population will significantly influence the design of
future policy interventions to alleviate poverty and food insecurity. In the
low-income developing countries, however, a large proportion of the population
will continue to be young for some time, suggesting that education and
employment generation will continue to be major priorities.

A 10-fold increase in the number of international refugees since
1974 to around 23 million today, along with 26 million refugees displaced within
their home countries, reflects severe social and economic hardship. These
problems often spill over into other areas, affecting many more people. Unless
the underlying causes of these massive involuntary displacements of people -
breakdown of civil society and governments, oppression, extreme poverty, hunger,
and environmental degradation - are removed, this trend will continue, with
increasing human misery and disruptions of productive activities. More than 40
countries and tens of millions of people today are experiencing hunger or are
severely vulnerable to hunger because of past or ongoing conflicts that have
severely reduced food production and livelihood capacities and devastated
natural resources. As the competition over scarce resources intensifies, many
more people may come under the shadow of conflict, where food and water are
often instruments for warfare and natural resources are often among the first
casualties.

Food will have to be produced where it is most
needed in developing countries, not simply to increase food supplies but also to
generate incomes and employment through agricultural and resulting economic
growth.

Food Supply

In the next 25 years, the world will be challenged to produce
enough food to feed an additional 90 million people each year, as well as to
meet increasing and changing food needs due to rising incomes and changing
lifestyles. These needs will have to be met from more efficient use of land
already under cultivation, as significant expansion of cultivated area is not an
economically or environmentally sound option in most of the world. Food will
have to be produced where it is most needed in developing countries, not simply
to increase food supplies but also to generate incomes and employment through
agricultural and resulting economic growth.

2020 Vision research suggests that the world is far from
approaching bio-physical limits to global food production. Warning signs,
however, suggest that growth in food production has begun to lag. Increases in
food production did not keep pace with population growth in more than 50
developing countries in the 1980s and early 1990s. The rate of growth of global
grain production dropped from 3 percent in the 1970s to 1.3 percent in the
1983-93 period, and the amount of grain produced per person has fallen in the
past decade. Yields of rice and wheat have been constant during the last few
years in Asia, a major producer. Production from marine fisheries has peaked at
100 million tons and is now in decline.

If investments in agricultural research and infrastructure are
maintained, at least at the already reduced levels of the 1980s, the future
aggregate global food supply picture is likely to be good. 2020 Vision research
projects that world foodgrain production will grow on average by 1.5 percent per
year between 1990 and 2020, a rate high enough to increase global per capita
availability of food and to reduce real prices for most commodities. World
livestock production is projected to grow by 1.9 percent a year. Aquaculture
production, which doubled between 1984 and 1992, is forecast to increase at a
slower rate between 1990 and 2020, while marine fish catches are likely to be no
higher than current levels in 2020. Foodgrain production in developing countries
is projected to grow at an average annual rate of 2 percent (compared with 1
percent in developed countries) and livestock production at 3.3 percent
(compared with 0.8 percent in developed countries).

2020 Vision simulations suggest that, if national and
international institutions further cut back on public investments in
agricultural research, health, nutrition, and education, the relatively
favorable aggregate food situation could significantly worsen, reversing
long-term world food price declines and increasing the number of malnourished
children. But if developing countries strengthen their investments in
agricultural research, health, education, and clean water supplies; raise their
income growth rates; and increase the enrollment of females in secondary
schools, the number of malnourished children in developing countries could be
substantially reduced and per capita market demand and supply of food
significantly increased. A reduction in the population growth rate to the United
Nations low-variant projection, so that the global population in 2020 is 7
billion instead of the anticipated 8 billion, would also significantly improve
the food security situation.

Yield increases will have to be the source of most of the food
production increases since cultivated area is likely to decline in many
developed countries and only marginally increase in developing countries, except
in Sub-Saharan Africa and Latin America, where some expansion of area is still
economically and technologically feasible. However, these yield increases depend
on continued research and successful dissemination of technologies and
techniques to farmers. A second Green Revolution will be more difficult to
achieve than the first. Should public investment in agriculture, particularly in
agricultural research, continue to decline, and should extension systems fail to
support small-scale farmers as they venture to adopt improved technologies, the
aggregate food situation could significantly worsen.

The relatively favorable global food supply picture is not good
for all regions. South Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa are of special concern. The
gap between production and market demand for cereals is forecast to widen from 1
million tons in 1990 to 24 million tons in 2020 in South Asia, and to triple to
27 million tons in 2020 in Sub-Saharan Africa. Unless poverty is significantly
reduced, the gap between food production and need will be much larger.
Sub-Saharan Africa in particular is unlikely to have the capacity to
commercially import the difference between food needs and production. It is also
unlikely that enough food aid will be available to bridge this gap. Food aid is
likely to be increasingly scarce with the implementation of the Uruguay Round
trade agreements, which will reduce domestic price support to agriculture and
thus reduce surplus production in the industrial countries.

Sub-Saharan Africas food economy is unlikely to have much
effect on the global food situation - its share of the global market demand for
foodgrains will probably not exceed 6 percent in 2020. However, what happens in
two regions - China and Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union - will
greatly influence the global food projections. Any dramatic changes in
Chinas food economy will reverberate around the globe. Structural changes
in Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union will determine the pace at which
that region shifts from being a major cereal importer to a major exporter.

The central challenges between now and 2020 are to develop the
global capacity to produce adequate food in an environ-mentally sustainable
manner and to increase the capacity of poorer countries to produce food, not
simply to increase their food supply, but to generate incomes and employment
through agricultural growth.

Natural Resources and Agricultural Inputs

Soils. Concerns are growing about the extent and rate of
soil degradation in the world and its effects on agricultural productivity and
preservation of natural resources, including biodiversity. In the past
half-century, about 2 billion of the 8.7 billion hectares of agricultural land,
permanent pastures, and forest and woodlands have been degraded. Of these, about
750 million hectares of mildly degraded land could be restored through good land
husbandry measures, while another 900 million hectares of moderately degraded
land could be restored through significant on-farm investments. Restoring the
remaining 300 million hectares of severely degraded lands will be much more
costly, involving major engineering investments. About 5 to 10 million hectares
annually become unusable due to severe degradation.

Two-thirds of the worlds degraded lands are
found in Asia and Africa, hut human-induced degradation is most severe in
Africa, where 30 percent of the agricultural land, pastures, forests, and
woodlands are degraded, followed by Asia (27 percent) and Latin America (18
percent).

Two-thirds of the worlds degraded lands are found in Asia
and Africa, but human-induced degradation is most severe in Africa, where 30
percent of the agricultural land, pastures, forests, and woodlands are degraded,
followed by Asia (27 percent) and Latin America (18 percent). Most of the
degradation is taking place on agricultural and pasture lands, which are major
sources of food, incomes, and employment for rural people in many developing
countries. Soil degradation has affected 75 percent of agricultural lands in
Central America and 65 percent in Africa, compared with 25 percent in Europe and
North America. Most of the degradation is taking place in the bread
basket areas (salinization), densely populated rainfed farming areas
(nutrient depletion and erosion), and areas with important environmental roles
(water erosion in upper watersheds).

Overgrazing, deforestation, and inappropriate agricultural
practices account for most of the degradation. To a large extent, these problems
result from or are exacerbated by inadequate property rights, poverty,
population pressure, inappropriate government policies, and lack of access to
markets, credit, and technologies appropriate for sustainable agricultural
development. Crop productivity losses from degradation are significant and
widespread in hilly areas, dryland cropping areas, rangelands, and irrigated
areas. Unless nondegraded soils are protected and currently degraded soils are
restored, increasing population and persisting poverty will hasten soil
degradation between now and 2020.

2020 Vision consultations have identified hot spots
of severe environmental deterioration by the year 2020. These areas include the
Indus, Tigris, and Euphrates river basins, where continued salinization could
threaten regional food security; the foothills of the Himalayas, where water
erosion could exacerbate poverty and food insecurity; the highland areas of East
Africa, where few ready sources of further productivity increases exist; the
border zone between subhumid and semiarid areas in Africa, where migrations
induced by dryland degradation could put additional pressure on the natural
resource base; the forest margins of the lower Amazon, where overgrazing and
nutrient loss are expected to worsen; and the periurban areas around Mexico
City, where pollution from agricultural chemicals could worsen. Soil fertility
is a particularly serious problem in Africa, where a lack of replenishment of
nutrients is leading to rapid deterioration.

Forests. During the 1980s, about 0.8 percent - 15.4
million hectares - of tropical forests worldwide were converted to other uses
every year. Latin America had the largest area of forest converted during that
period - 7.4 million hectares every year - but other areas, with smaller forest
endowments, had higher rates of forest conversion and carry heavier risks of
completely losing their forest assets. Rates of forest conversion are most rapid
in continental Southeast Asia and Central America and Mexico, averaging about
1.5 percent a year. Deforestation has important local and global consequences,
ranging from increased soil and water degradation to greater food insecurity
(especially among indigenous peoples who depend on forest products for food,
fiber, medicines, or income), escalating carbon emissions, and loss of
biodiversity.

Small-scale, poor farmers clearing land for agriculture to meet
food needs accounted for roughly two-thirds of the deforestation in the 1980s.
Such forest conversion, driven by food insecurity, will continue between now and
2020, particularly in Africa, unless farmers have alternative ways of meeting
food needs. And these needs will accelerate with population growth in rural
areas. Commercial logging interests account for much of the remaining
deforestation, especially in East Asia and West Africa. Although there is no
consensus on the amount or location of forest that this generation should
bequeath to the next, there is evidence that the worlds forests are
neither properly managed nor, when converted into other assets, sufficiently
productive to allow future generations to meet their needs.

Marine Fisheries. The worlds fisheries are in
crisis. Following a period of rapid expansion of harvesting from the oceans,
more than a quarter of the 200 main marine fisheries worldwide are
overexploited, depleted, or recovering, while another two-fifths are fully
exploited. Fisheries are collapsing in some parts of the world, and
international disputes over fish stocks are increasing. Resource management has
failed to restrain fishers from exploiting natural fisheries beyond sustainable
limits, leading to increasing conflicts as fish become more scarce. Even where
access is restrained, most fisheries have too many fishers with legitimate
access. 2020 Vision research projects that in 2020 fish catches will be, at
best, no more than current levels, as losses from poor resource management and
protection of some areas and species offset gains from better handling and
exploitation of underused stocks. The challenge is to maintain the present
levels of harvest from natural fisheries while sustainably increasing
aquaculture production.

Virtually all developing countries, even those
with adequate water in the aggregate, suffer from debilitating seasonal and
regional shortages.

Water. Enough freshwater is available worldwide to meet
needs for the foreseeable future if it were evenly distributed and appropriately
used. But water is poorly distributed across countries, across regions within
countries, and across seasons. Virtually all developing countries, even those
with adequate water in the aggregate, suffer from debilitating seasonal and
regional shortages. About 30 countries today are water stressed, with major
problems in drought years. Of these, 20 are water scarce, with annual internal
renewable water resources below the threshold required for socioeconomic
development and environmental quality. By 2020, the number of water-scarce
countries could approach 35. Competition for water is becoming more acute,
increasing the potential for conflicts between sectors and water wars between
countries.

2020 Vision research has identified several major water-related
challenges to realizing the 2020 Vision. Development of new water resources has
slowed since the late 1970s. New sources of water are increasingly expensive to
exploit because of high construction costs for dams and reservoirs and concerns
about environmental effects and displacement of people. Investment in irrigation
projects has slowed, especially in Asia, even though increased production from
irrigated lands is likely to be decisive in meeting future food needs.
Efficiency of water use in agriculture, industry, and urban areas is generally
low. Pressures to degrade land and water resources through waterlogging,
salinization, and groundwater mining are mounting. Between 0.3 and 1.5 million
hectares of land are lost each year worldwide from waterlogging and
salinization. Pollution of water from industrial effluent, poorly treated
sewage, and runoff of agricultural chemicals is a growing problem. Inadequate
and unsafe domestic water supplies, compounded by inadequate or nonexistent
sewage and sanitation systems, are a major cause of disease and death,
particularly among children, in developing countries, Inappropriate policies,
distorted incentives, and massive subsidies provide water at little or no cost
to rural and urban users, encouraging overuse and misuse of water. Water for
irrigation, the largest use, is essentially unpriced. The overarching challenge
between now and 2020 is to treat water as the scarce resource it is.

Fertilizers. According to 2020 Vision research and
consultations, the use of mineral fertilizers will have to be substantially
increased in developing countries to meet food needs by 2020, although organic
sources can and should supply a larger share of plant nutrients. Fertilizers
also play a key role in enhancing the natural resource base. 2020 Vision
research forecasts that between 1990 and 2020, global fertilizer demand will
grow, on average, by 1.2 percent per year to 208 million tons in 2020, a
significantly lower rate than the 2.8 percent rate in the 1980s. Average annual
growth rates are projected to be about 1.8-2.4 percent in Africa, Asia, and
Latin America. Asia will account for more than half of the growth in global
fertilizer use.

Depletion of soil nutrients is a critical constraint to food
production in Sub-Saharan Africa. The projected growth in fertilizer use will be
inadequate, given nutrient requirements for food production and for resource
conservation. Fertilizer applications are low because of high prices (resulting
from thin markets, lack of domestic production capacity, poor infrastructure,
and inefficient marketing systems), insecure supplies, and the greater risks
associated with food production in marginal areas.

Raw materials, capital investment, or technology do not appear
to be critical constraints to future fertilizer production. Negative
environmental and health consequences of fertilizer use and production must be
avoided. In most developing countries, however, the problem is not excessive but
insufficient fertilizer use. The major challenge is to promote a balanced and
efficient use of plant nutrients from both organic and inorganic sources at farm
and community levels to intensify agriculture in a sustainable manner.

Pesticides. Pre- and postharvest losses in potential crop
production due to pests are very large in developing countries. However, past
practices of pesticide use cannot be sustained. Since 1945, global pesticide use
has increased 42-fold to about 2.5 million tons today. Concerns are multiplying
in developed and developing countries that overuse or misuse of pesticides
compromises human health; contaminates soils and water and damages ecosystems;
suppresses species; and leads to pesticide resistance, pest resurgence, and
evolution of secondary pests. Moreover, evidence shows that overuse of
pesticides can lead to decreased food production: in Indonesia, introduction of
an integrated pest management (IPM) program that combined biological controls
and host-plant resistance with reduced use of chemical pesticides in the late
1980s was associated with an increase in rice yields. According to 2020 Vision
consultations, it is clear that environmentally sound alternatives or methods of
use must be developed and adopted. Available pest management means must be
combined to achieve effective pest control with little or no negative
environmental effects or health risks.

Energy. Agriculture consumes only 5 percent of global
commercial energy. However, energy use in agriculture has significantly grown in
recent decades because of increases in cropped and irrigated area; rising
mechanization in irrigation, land preparation, and harvesting; and use of
chemical fertilizers. Chemical fertilizers alone account for almost 70 percent
of developing-country energy use in agriculture. Increasing agricultural
production and agroprocessing in developing countries will call for substantial
increases in use of commercial energy. Still, agriculture will continue to be a
minor user of energy.

In most developing countries, however, the
problem is not excessive but insufficient fertilizer use. The major challenge is
to promote a balanced and efficient use of plant nutrients from both organic and
inorganic sources at farm and community levels to intensify agriculture in a
sustainable manner.

Research and Technology. All of the food needed in 2020
and beyond cannot be produced using existing technology and knowledge alone.
Low-income developing countries are grossly underinvesting in agricultural
research compared with industrialized countries, even though agriculture
accounts for a much larger share of developing countries employment and
incomes. Their public-sector expenditures on agricultural research are typically
less than 0.5 percent of agricultural gross domestic product (GDP), compared
with about 1 percent in higher-income developing countries and 2-5 percent in
industrialized countries. Developing countries have far fewer agricultural
researchers relative to the economically active population engaged in
agriculture or to the agriculture acreage. Growth in public-sector expenditures
on agricultural research in developing countries has slowed to 2.7 percent per
year in the past decade, compared with 7.0 percent in the 1960s. Many developing
countries are even reducing their support for agricultural research. This trend
has been under way for several decades in Africa (agricultural research
expenditures per scientist have fallen by about 2.6 percent per year since 1961)
and is more recent in Latin America. Further reductions in public investment in
agricultural research will have severe consequences for global food production
by reducing yield growth: projected world food price declines will be reversed
and the number of malnourished children will increase.

Climate Change. A trend toward global warming is evident,
but it will not significantly affect global food production in the next 25
years. This does not imply, however, that considerations related to climate
change should be set aside. Human behavior in the next quarter century - the
carbon dioxide and fluorocarbons injected into the atmosphere, the forests burnt
down, the pollution added to the atmosphere - will determine the extent,
longevity, and effects of climate change. Foresight is essential: while the
effects of climate change may not be felt immediately or for some years to come,
once it is set in motion, climate change may take a very long time to be
reversed.

Markets, Infrastructure, and International Trade

In recent years, many countries have embarked on market reforms
to move away from state-controlled or parastatal organizations toward reliance
on private firms operating in free markets. The need for such reforms is
apparent in former centrally planned countries, but it is also evident in a
number of mixed economies in the developing world. While clearly desirable, such
reforms must be undertaken with care, taking into account the organizational
structure of the affected markets. In some cases, inefficient para-statals are
being replaced by oligopolistic or monopolistic private firms, with little or no
gains to farmers and consumers. The ongoing and unprecedented transition from
controlled to market economies and from patrimonial to open political systems
has generated confusion about the appropriate role of government and weakened
the capacity of governments to perform needed functions. Free
markets are not necessarily the same as competitive markets, and
government policy has an important role in ensuring the emergence of efficient,
competitive markets as part of the reform process.

In many regions, especially Sub-Saharan Africa, food marketing
costs are extremely high. Lowering these costs through investment in improved
transportation infrastructure and marketing facilities (which also increase
competition) may be as important in lowering food prices to consumers as
increasing agricultural productivity. Many countries have made major
improvements in recent years, but investments in infrastructure, especially
transport and communication, are far below needed levels. Road, rail, port, and
storage infrastructures are inadequate, while telecommunications, electricity,
piped water, and sanitation systems reach only certain segments of society. Past
investments have tended to favor urban areas. Investments in creating and
maintaining basic infrastructure in African countries, in particular, lag behind
investments in Asian and Latin American countries.

No country can insulate itself from the world
economy: trade policy and development policy go hand-in-hand.

The rapid growth of world trade and increased integration of
developing countries into the global economy since World War II have changed the
nature of the development process. No country can insulate itself from the world
economy: trade policy and development policy go hand-in-hand. The value of world
exports grew, on average; by 11 percent per year between 1950 and 1990, much
faster than world income. The share of developing countries in world trade rose
to 26 percent in 1992-93, doubling in just over 20 years. Many developing
countries have gained enormously from increased participation in world markets
as world trade has become increasingly liberalized, largely through a series of
major rounds of trade negotiations under the General Agreement on Tariffs and
Trade (GATT), including the recently completed Uruguay Round. There has also
been a proliferation of regional trading arrangements, such as the North
American Free Trade Association (NAFTA), MERCOSUR in Latin America, and a
proposed Asia-Pacific free trade area. All indications are that these trends
will continue into the future.

The results of 2020 Vision research and other work indicate that
increased regional integration and further global liberalization are good for
most developing countries. World trade in agricultural goods will continue to
increase, implying that developing countries should not seek food
self-sufficiency but should pursue self-reliance through specialization and
increased trade in agricultural and manufactured goods for which they have
comparative advantage. 2020 Vision research also shows that developing countries
benefit from regional trade arrangements that include one or more developed
economies, but that they gain little from integration with other developing
countries alone. For the low-income, food-importing countries, global trade
liberalization and policy reform in agricultural subsidy policies in developed
countries is a mixed blessing. They gain from increased access to
developed-country markets, but they are less able to compete in those markets
than other, better situated, developing countries. And they lose from higher
food prices that may occur in the medium term with cutbacks in agricultural
subsidies in the developed countries.

Domestic Resource Mobilization and International
Assistance

The major source of aggregate investment in virtually all
countries is domestic savings. For the low-income countries, the vicious circle
of poverty still exists - low income leads to low savings, low investment, low
growth, continued poverty, and continued low savings. Developing countries vary
widely in their ability to mobilize savings and achieve high rates of
investment. During the past 20 years, several countries in Asia and Latin
America have become economic successes, with rising investment rates and rapid
growth. For example, investment rates now exceed 35 percent of GDP in Indonesia,
Malaysia, and Thailand. In Sub-Saharan Africa, however, the share of GDP devoted
to investment has fallen in the past two decades from 20 to 16 percent, while
the domestic savings rate has fallen from 18 to 15 percent. These rates are far
from those needed to bring about target economic growth rates. Existing foreign
debt in many developing countries makes increased domestic savings and
investment extremely difficult for these countries. Current efforts to relieve
debt burdens must be strengthened to permit developing countries to generate the
necessary domestic investment to realize the 2020 Vision.

Foreign private investment, loans from international
organizations, and official development assistance (ODA) have long been seen as
ways to increase investment in developing countries and to break out of the
poverty cycle, although there is widespread recognition now that such foreign
investment must be accompanied by complementary domestic policy reforms if it is
to be successful. Private flows to developing countries have increased
substantially since the late 1980s. In 1993, these flows, which include direct
investments, international bank lending, and bond lending, constituted 56
percent of total net resource flows to developing countries, up from 39 percent
in 1989. Most of these flows, however, go to a small number of medium-income,
semi-industrial countries in Latin America and Asia. Poorer countries,
especially in Sub-Saharan Africa, are almost entirely left out and depend much
more on aid flows.

ODA to developing countries is slowing, however. ODA from the 21
members of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) grew
at an annual rate of 3 percent in real terms from the early 1970s to 1992,
peaking at $ 60.9 billion in 1992. Driven by cuts in foreign assistance in 17
countries, ODA dropped by more than 6 percent in 1993. Its share of GNP fell to
a 20-year low of 0.3 percent. Assistance from non-OECD countries has dropped
even more dramatically; Arab OPEC countries provided 25 percent of world ODA in
the early 1980s but contributed less than 2 percent in 1993. While foreign aid
budgets rose during the 1980s, assistance to developing-country agriculture
declined in real terms from $ 12 billion to $ 10 billion. Agricultures
share of total development assistance declined from 20 to 14 percent during the
same period. Given these trends in aid availability, developing countries are
challenged to devise strategies for accomplishing their goals with less aid.

A summary of the actions required to address each of the
challenges described in this section appears in tabular form in the
appendix.