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Lets also not forget Pakis are not talking of casualties in March and what was hit by IAF in Chakothi and Muzaffarabad on 26 Feb morning. They now know H-4 bombs dont work, Amraam's are no silver bullet with 2 fired at Mig 21's and 5 at SU-30's, F-16's need to get really up close while the JF-17's could do diddly squat when the time came for them to be used. Thats why Pakis want to deescalate.

We can afford the run rate on our serviceability, spares etc. Can they?

Their JF-17s are tier 2 equivalents to our Bisons or slightly superior in A2A, and better for strike + Mirage 3/5, around 100 JF-17s and 270 Mirages which seem to be.

Even there we have 120 Bisons and 110 Jaguars.

Why is the JF-17 so inferior?

Its radar missile combination is barely superior to that on the upgraded MiG-21 Bison. At the recent Zhuhai, we got to know the new AESAs on offer to replace the existing radar which has a range of ~70km. The Bison has a radar with a range of ~60km.

Consider whether that radar + missile combination is sufficient to take on the above IAF fleet.

Now will the upgraded JF-17 work out. All depends on its ECCM, not just raw range and ability to discriminate against clutter. So far, chinese AWACS have not been able to do the job. Will a fighter radar with much less processing be able to pull off the task?

I suspect at end of 2024, IAF vs PAF overmatch will be so substantial they will actively seek to avoid conflict.

Karan, The main issue is the date mentioned above. October 2020 is the period when US presidential elections will be held and Trump's first term will come to close. And I can't recall a president who has been so detached from Indian subcontinent geopolitical affairs, thereby giving us freer hand than ever before. While Trump might get elected again, you cannot count on it. The next president might get back to pro pakistan mode including reinstating aid money, rearmament and help in IMF loans, thereby giving them a new lease of life.

Now there is still 1.5 yrs approx before 2020 ends. We got to destroy and dismantle Pakistan before the next year ends, with whatever tools we got instead of waiting for the perfect situation. After that depending on the results of US presidential elections, this objective will get much more difficult.

The domestic economy is on the verge of collapse. The IMF fund was requested because the Chinese and the Arabian loans/ baksheeshs were not enough or just covered the military funding which the domestic could not make up.

Now on top of that the country is spiralling towards the proverbial shit hole in terms of defence spending as the previous govts have worked hard Both NDA and UPA to get US to remove the extra discount when giving F-16 to fight TAF (Talib Air Force). That has been the actual killer why the relationship soured as well.

Now things become really unaffordable and guess where the annoyed teenager is back with once the parents cut off the weekend funding. They are back with the parents and asking for more money well this time they are asking IMF (mother).

This gives or provides the current US administration excellent opportunity to dictate the IMF terms and rumour mill has it inside Pakistan and India that US dictated to the Pakis that not only will you drag the taliban ass to the negotiating table, you will also tell them to agree to the condition dicatated by Afghanistan and US.

Never did US realise that by cutting off the discounts on hardware they will get a double win of getting Pak and ISI and Army on the negotiating table before the tabliban even walks into the room.

Honestly I am over the moon with the current situ in Pak. Long live Pakistan Army and Long live the Lame Cricket Captain till the end of Pakistan.

Let me ask a ultra stupid action, what if some non-state actor one night blows 5-10 fizzleyas by a b'mos salvo or some loitering Nirbhays forget their way to pokharan and ends in sargodha at night ..where are are they gonna bring those shiny toys...

I think elephant in the room is understood by all, especially IK and his cronies, the IMF and a lot of the paki janta, so it was sort of inevitable for the pakfauj to make some conciliatory gestures.

But I am sure that in the greater scheme of things, this will only be yet another "short term loan" for Pakistan, this time from its military - whatever the budget reduction is will be compensated at a later stage with a much larger increase, a nice bonus payout to the top commanders, hundreds of kanals of land being allocated to them, shiny medals and recognition that "boys played well".

The Block III version of the Chengdu/Pakistan Aeronautical Complex JF-17 fighter will have its first flight before the end of 2019.

An official familiar with the programme says that a number of key decisions are set to be made about the programme.

One major element of the Block III upgrade is the addition of an active electronically scanned array (AESA) radar. The official says a decision on which radar is “around the corner.”

The official says that “another engine is in mind” but declined to discuss specifics. A pilot FlightGlobal spoke with, however, says the RD-93 is working well in Pakistan Air Force service.

While the majority of the Block III upgrades can be retrofitted to existing Block II aircraft, the updated intake will only be available on the new build Block IIIs.

A good number of Pakistan’s JF-17 fleet has air-to-air refueling probes. While this equipment can be retrofitted, the air force does not see a requirement to do so for the entire fleet.

FlightGlobal understands that two radars are in contention: the China Electronics Technology Group KLJ-7A, and an AESA from AVIC that it claims is the first air-cooled example.

The Block III will also have a new integrated electronic warfare suite, with Chinese and European options on the table for this requirement.

Perhaps most notably, the Block III will see the JF-17’s intakes widened to improve air flow. This could also set the stage for a new engine at some point – the JF-17 is powered by the Klimov RD-93 engine.

Flight International's 2019 World Air Force's directory indicates that the Pakistan Air Force has 98 in-service JF-17s.

A decision on a new AESA radar for the Block 3s is expected to be made by the end of the year. There are now three Chinese contenders, which were all shown at last year’s Zhuhai Air Show, while Leonardo’s Grifo-E is still on the table.

From Warnes' article above. These are interesting details on the Paki line at Kamra:

More than 100 JF-17s have now come off the AMF assembly line, where the wings, horizontal tail, vertical tail, and forward fuselage, representing 58 percent of the fighter, are built. They are matched with the remaining 42 percent built in Chengdu in China, including the mid- and rear- fuselages that are airfreighted to PAC Kamra. The three fuselage sections are mated at the JF-17 subassembly line and are pushed through on a large trolley to one of the four docks in the final assembly facility.

That’s when the avionics, wiring, undercarriage, harnesses, and Klimov RD93 powerplant are added, while the Martin-Baker Mk16 ejection seat comes later. The aircraft’s air-to-air refueling probes are not necessarily fitted on the assembly line, although all the necessary plumbing has been put in place since the production of Block 2 13-129.

After being towed down to the flight test shed, the newly built JF-17s are put through five functional check flights (FCFs) by one of the four qualified test pilots based at the co-located Test and Evaluation Squadron (TES). Three PAF pilots have qualified at the Boscombe Down-based Empire Test Pilot School for the JF-17, but now most of them go to Xian in China to get their qualifications. When the author met Squadron Leader Ali in April, he was about to test-fly the latest JF-17 to leave the assembly line. He went through a six months training program in China after flying with two operational JF-17 squadrons. Working alongside him in the flight test shed was Boscombe-qualified Group Captain Imran, who spent two years during the early days of the JF-17 test program at Chengdu flying the prototypes and was more recently the first JF-17 Combat Commanders School (CCS) commanding officer. He told AIN, “During the FCFs we push the aircraft to the limit, right through the complete envelope, to assess the handling qualities, checking the systems and aircraft performance.”

Once the FCFs are completed the PAF then puts the JF-17 through a further check flight and if there are no snags, the aircraft will be officially handed over.

PAC chairman Air Marshall Ahmer Shahzad told AIN, “Production of subassemblies has already started for the first two 50 Block 3 aircraft, to be assembled next year, and will be followed by another 12 in 2021, 2022, 2023, and 2024. We will assemble eight dual-seaters this year, followed by 14 in 2020, and the remaining four in 2021.”

Building the JF-17 since 2009 has catapulted PAC into the serious business of fighter production, a feat that not many countries can boast, particularly in Asia. The chairman said he is keen to build on this. The company has already built a high-speed aerial target and is close to the completion of an indigenous UAV.

If they have assembled 100+ aircraft at AMF then the full production line only exists in Pakistan. There are only 120 or so Blunders including the prototypes in Chengdu.

I hate to say it but the JF-17 program -- even as chitty as the actual plane really is -- have jumpstarted their industry. Overall, they have planned this fairly well trading overall product sophistication for speed in development to kick off a nascent industrial base.

Really what part does Pakistan produce. It is only screwdrivergiri with everything produced in China. Only some metal cutting and assembly is done in Pakistan. All part are designed and produced in China. Hal had a higher work share in Mig 21s in the 1970s

Well IMHO its more than screwdrivergiri. It is something on the lines of brahmos for us. Get the tech and form joint partners. Incrementally indigenise + improve + market it worldwide. All silos are working symbiotically to acheive new peaks.

While in our case, for the past few months I have seen the air cheif fly mig21 many times but hardly any reference of tejas. The number of times rafale has been broadcasted to the public. The number of times the tail wagging is done for unused mig29 is a travesty to local MIC. Plus the baboons also haven't showed any courage to publicise tejas @ paris as the foresight is missing.

^^^ According to the Warnes article, "the AMF assembly line" is "where the wings, horizontal tail, vertical tail, and forward fuselage, representing 58 percent of the fighter, are built."

The Blunder is pretty much a 1960's type metal cage with some new electronics. No composite or even separate components in those sections for the JF-17 unlike in the Tejas. So I'm inclined to think those are made in Pakiland if the report is correct in them making anything at all. The plane is nothing but an updated MiG-21 and designed for a bare-bones industry like Pakiland's.

No parts for JF 17 are produced and supplied in Pakistan. Chinese engineers had to come and do overhauling of JF 17 aircraft. Myanmar JF 17 were built and sold from China. It is a game changer as much as CPEC is for Pakistan, no critical questions are taken and empty boating from Pakis.

gaurav.p wrote:Well IMHO its more than screwdrivergiri. It is something on the lines of brahmos for us. Get the tech and form joint partners. Incrementally indigenise + improve + market it worldwide. All silos are working symbiotically to acheive new peaks.

In Brahmos missile nav system & now seeker are from India.Most aggregates for the missile are license produced locally.In the system itself, the TELARs and C3I - are all Indian including FCS.

Please point out corresponding level of Pak subsystems in JF-17.The JF-17 is more like an early MiG-2x production line at HAL, with even lesser indigenization.

Agree saar. the design, IP, everything is Chinese. Here the brahmos is different. But the assembly work being done and the way it is marketed is similar to the world is on the lines of brahmos. Both of them have been adopted by only one of the partners and a case of good project management and execution (compared to the tejas).

I got to the indigenisation point from a similar percentage written on wiki. Call it assembly but they are doing a pretty good job of selling the idea to the world of a junk fighter as the cheap tip of the spear (out of compulsion). While the MSM is drooling for rafales/mig29 and ignoring the tejas.

gaurav.p wrote:Agree saar. the design, IP, everything is Chinese. Here the brahmos is different. But the assembly work being done and the way it is marketed is similar to the world is on the lines of brahmos. Both of them have been adopted by only one of the partners and a case of good project management and execution (compared to the tejas).

Is a Jaguar TOT in India an example of good project management and execution, compared to the Tejas? Point is it's just TOT, SKD, and now decades later we are indigenizing, doing our own thing.

Pakis did literally nothing in JF17 bar setting some specs, test flying etc. Yet to even do something like DARIN etc.

So how is it comparable to a far more complex program like Tejas, which is actually more comparable to the J10. Even there, Chinese took one look at the complexity, went and bought out the Lavi design, worked with Israelis and Russians to remove US gear in it and put Israeli (Chinese made) and Russian gear (like engines) in it.

Our big issue is perception management. We run down local programs like crazy and whole world starts believing the crap our own DDM, vested interests and *some* clueless service wallahs addicted to imports write. The other big issue is user-developer dysfunction which can only be rectified with MOD taking cognizance of the issue.

Even so, we dont induct crap. Tejas works, we know it. PAF, takes whatever it can get. For all of the PAF braggadocio, their JF17s flunked the combat test versus our upgraded Mirages on Feb 27th. If they hadn't, there wouldn't be urgency in PAF to proceed with AESA on Block 3. Point is, even that, who knows the quality especially if Chinese. Pak still relies on Erieyes for air to air, over land not ZDK-03.

In that sense, IAF seeting crazy high standards for Tejas helped. Much of that will help for ANCA, where compact packaging of compact LRYs is a must. These 2 validated by India for Tejas using domestic capabilities for the most part. If we too had opted for a 3.5 Gen airframe with 3.5 gen flight control, 4th gen avionics like JF17, wouldn't have learnt enough at all!

Even in 58% claimed by Pakis, metals , Machinery, manuals and all raw material comes from China. PAC Kamra role to run the machines as per CHinese Instructions. Quite Frankly we had more involvement in manufacturing the Mig 21 in the 1970's than they have on the JF-17. Yes they know how to fight Twitter wars and media management. Note: their JF-17 never fired smart PGM's or BVR missiles on 27 Feb, ideally Pakis would not have risked spraying and wasting Amraam's if the JF 17's could have done the same and fired dozens of SD-10A's, a far cheaper and replaceable missile . Is there a video of JF-17 refueling from an IL 78? There are of every other aircraft claiming Ariel refueling capability including Tejas which is in the works.

chola wrote:^^^ According to the Warnes article, "the AMF assembly line" is "where the wings, horizontal tail, vertical tail, and forward fuselage, representing 58 percent of the fighter, are built.".

What about the aggregates inside the aircraft? The flight controls the hydraulics all those items... most still imported from China looks like?

I would assume that all the internals would be chini. But the airframe must be the start to any aeronautics industry IMO.

In that sense, IAF seeting crazy high standards for Tejas helped. Much of that will help for ANCA, where compact packaging of compact LRYs is a must. These 2 validated by India for Tejas using domestic capabilities for the most part. If we too had opted for a 3.5 Gen airframe with 3.5 gen flight control, 4th gen avionics like JF17, wouldn't have learnt enough at all!

The IAF has every right in going for the best available. It is up to the GOI to make the local industry a strategic priority and make local purchases.

If we had created a true 3rd gen aircraft, we would have built and inducted it in the 1990s and our 4th and 5th gens would be on a much more solid industrial base today.

To be honest we tried to skip entire steps in the formation of the industry. We never built a mass produced domestic turbojet or a mass produced metal frame aircraft* (which even the Iranians have in the Owj engine and Kowsar fighter) that would have blooded our manufacturing. And manufacturing has always been our achilles heel.

If the pakis had gone for a Tejas with all-axis FBW, composite airframe and indigenous turbofan in the 1990s, they would not have been able to assemble a hundred fighters today. The Blunder was the right project for them because it matched the state of their industry.

* Marut if handled differently should have been the corner stone to our industry but by the time we embarked on the LCA, it had no lasting impact and we went with a laboratory moonshot in the Tejas. The chinis, for example, went from J-6 to J-7 to J-8 -- all turbojet, metalframes built in the hundreds and thousands -- before embarking on their Tejas equivalent in the J-10.

did the marut fall victim to the machinations of the 1971 war and UK refused to supply uprated engines ? ... and cleverly slipped in offer to sell the jaguar which they themselves passed over mostly in favour of the larger and more advanced tornado?

^^^ The Marut fell to multiple factors. But I think the biggest one was the lure of screwdriver giri and its apparent leap up the technological ladder. We were "manufacturing" world class MiG-21s, MiG-27s and Jaguars at the time.

But now we know that once the contract ends, we are left with nothing.

The ideal progression should have been mass production of the Marut with its DNA in the foundation of the following Bharati fighter projects. LCA should have been built on what we have learned with Marut and should have been manufactured quickly and in numbers since the ground work should have been laid.

With screwdriver giri no DNA was ever passed down. We have nothing from our MiG and Jaguar projects and we will have nothing from our Flanker project once MKI ends. Again unlike Cheen, whose MiG-21/J-7 DNA exists in the JF-17 and their Flanker project resulted in a brood of (maybe illegitimate) children in the J-11 and J-16 variants.

The Marut was a plane without an engine. The Orpheus was designed to power the much smaller Gnat. The British had offered to develop an uprated Orpheus engine for Rs 1 Cr that we refused due to cost cutting. Thereafter Marut had to use under-rated Orpheus engines. No suitable engine was there in the world.

HAL tried to make an afterburning Orpheus but the engines vitiated the area ruling of the Marut that resulted in no improvement in performance

As an aircraft designed in 50's, Marut didnt have electricity or space for modern avionics.

All other efforts - HF-73 - were non starters - in terms of powerplant, avionics, etc.

The LCA Tejas was saved by the availability of relatively plug-and-play GE-404 that replaced un-developed Kaveri and relatively plug-and-play Elta 2032 that replaced the under-developed MMR. Additional plug-and-play solutions like Elbit Dash HMDS and Litening pod further boosted capabilities. Absence of similar solutions is hurting the Pakistani program badly.

A decision on a new AESA radar for the Block 3s is expected to be made by the end of the year. There are now three Chinese contenders, which were all shown at last year’s Zhuhai Air Show, while Leonardo’s Grifo-E is still on the table.

The Grifo-E will always be there.. on the table, not in the jet.

Changing radar means changing BVR.. Does Leonardo plans to integrate SD-10/PL to their radar? by giving out datalink decryption details to the chinese?

One has to view Pak as a Chin province.That's the hard truth.It is totally in debt to China and the Saudis for whatever it has.Like mercenaries, Paki troops protect the despotic Saudi regime, who paid for its N-programme, tech. gifted by China and winked at by the US its then bum-chum, doing all its dirty work in the region thanks to Gen.Zia and succeeding generals.However, the modest Blunder is a cheapo way in which numbers can have a quality of its own.Incremental upgrades will give it better performance over the years. Like the manner in which we in the past built up large numbers by mass producing MIGs and eventually producing the definitive Bison . Had the LCA programme been better patronised and managed by all stakeholders we would be sitting pretty by now with at least 6 to 10 sqds. in service built at low cost.Pak in the future will acquire better Chin aircraft as it is China's interests that Pak is totally dependent upon it for milware.

If the SD 10 is not there in the first place it will be easier to intergrate a new European BVR with Grifo E. The PAF has to fight a war when the PA deceides to escalate, not when the PAF or PN chooses. Same is the issue here, its when the PA decides to provoke.

Per some Tweets, Pakis have evaluated T-90MS and it is their preferred choice. The Chinese & Ukrainian tanks are not longer under consideration apparently.

Not sure about the numbers, if TSP can actually afford them or will Ruskis actually end up selling it to them. May be perhaps they will acquire a token number like the Mi-35Ms...

Anyways, with IA not too keen on Arjuns & god knows what is happening with FMBT, I guess Ruskis will offer Armata based/derived products to IA...in that way our "version" will be superior to Pakis and keep people happy on all sides.