A Forum for discussing emerging smart discoveries and emerging technologies with built-in intelligence or embedded smarts, as well as the new cognitive skills needed to succeed in the smart economy. The Smart Future is already here, just the last page hasn't been written yet! Every advance brings benefits as well as intrusions.
Have your say !! Read, enjoy, explore, speculate, comment !!

February 20, 2011

ANN ARBOR, Mich.---The Mimosa plant, which folds its leaves when they're touched, is inspiring a new class of adaptive structures designed to twist, bend, stiffen and even heal themselves. University of Michigan researchers are leading their development.

Mechanical engineering professor Kon-Well Wang will present the team's latest work Feb. 19 at the American Association for the Advancement of Science's 2011 Annual Meeting in Washington D.C. He will also speak at a news briefing earlier that day. Wang is the Stephan P. Timoshenko Collegiate Professor of Mechanical Engineering and chair of the Department of Mechanical Engineering.

"This is quite different from other traditional adaptive materials approaches," Wang said. "In general, people use solid-state materials to make adaptive structures. This is really a unique concept inspired by biology."

Researchers at U-M and Penn State University are studying how plants like the Mimosa can change shape, and they're working to replicate the mechanisms in artificial cells. Today, their artificial cells are palm-size and larger. But they're trying to shrink them by building them with microstructures and nanofibers. They're also exploring how to replicate the mechanisms by which plants heal themselves.

"We want to put it all together to create hyper-cellular structures with circulatory networks," Wang said.

The Mimosa is among the plant varieties that exhibit specialized "nastic motions," large movements you can see in real time with the naked eye, said Erik Nielsen, assistant professor in the U-M Department of Molecular, Cellular and Developmental Biology.

The phenomenon is made possible by osmosis, the flow of water in and out of plants' cells. Triggers such as touch cause water to leave certain plant cells, collapsing them. Water enters other cells, expanding them. These microscopic shifts allow the plants to move and change shape on a larger scale.

It's hydraulics, the researchers say.

"We know that plants can deform with large actuation through this pumping action," Wang said. "This and several other characteristics of plant cells and cell walls have inspired us to initiate ideas that could concurrently realize many of the features that we want to achieve for adaptive structures."

Nielsen believes nastic movements might be a good place to start trying to replicate plant motions because they don't require new growth or a reorganization of cells.

"These rapid, nastic motions are based on cells and tissues that are already there," Nielsen said. "It's easy for a plant to build new cells and tissues during growth, but it's not as easy to engineer an object or machine to completely change the way it's organized. We hope studying these motions can inform us about how to make efficient adaptive materials that display some of the same types of flexibility that we see in biological systems."

When this technology matures, Wang said it could enable robots that change shape like elephant trunks or snakes to maneuver under a bridge or through a tunnel, but then turn rigid to grab a hold of something. It also could lead to morphing wings that would allow airplanes to behave more like birds, changing their wing shape and stiffness in response to their environment or the task at hand.

###

At U-M, Michael Mayer, associate professor in the departments of Biomedical Engineering and Chemical Engineering, is also involved in the research. At Penn State, the project involves Charles Bakis, distinguished professor of engineering sciences and mechanics, and Christopher Rahn, professor of mechanical engineering. This project is currently funded by the National Science Foundation.

EDITORS: Professor Kon-Well Wang will speak at a news briefing on Saturday, Feb. 19 at 11 a.m. in room 202B at the Washington Convention Center. He will give his full presentation, "Learning from Plants: Bio-Inspired Multi-Functional Adaptive Structural Systems," during the session "If Termites Can Do It, Why Can't Humans?" 1:30-4:30 p.m. Saturday, Feb. 19, in room 145A.

Michigan Engineering:

The University of Michigan College of Engineering is ranked among the top engineering schools in the country. At $180 million annually, its engineering research budget is one of largest of any public university. Michigan Engineering is home to 11 academic departments, numerous research centers and expansive entrepreneurial programs. The College plays a leading role in the Michigan Memorial Phoenix Energy Institute and hosts the world-class Lurie Nanofabrication Facility. Michigan Engineering's premier scholarship, international scale and multidisciplinary scope combine to create The Michigan Difference. Find out more at http://www.engin.umich.edu/.

January 04, 2010

Life just got harder for the bad guys but more costly for the good guys.

With terrorism back in the news (Pakistan, Iran, Amsterdam, Detroit, Yemen etc), it's some comfort to see that scientists at the Fraunhofer Institute in Germany have designed a new intelligent prototype system to help identify terrorists carrying explosives. A network of sensitive electronic noses capture the smell of the explosives; the system processes the acquired data, correlates it with individuals’ movements … and ultimately tracks down the suspects.

It's a better idea then a terra-hertz fully body scanner-which is still dependent on error-prone subjective human judgement and can't distingished between an ordinary shirt or jacket lining or one soaked in explosive chemicals-a new tactic that could be easily used by clever savvy future terrorists.

(I've always wondered when someone would design such a "smart nose" system, since all the individual components have been around for a while--I'm pleased to see that it was developed by Fraunhofer Institute, which at this point in time, has to be one of the coolest science institutes on the planet-one that I would love to visit one day--Walter Derzko)

Imagine the following scenario (from the press release)

Literally hundreds of people are hurrying through the long airport corridor between Terminals A and B. Among them are two terrorists, who’ve hidden themselves in the crowd.They’re carrying small containers of chemicals in their jacket pockets, individual components for an explosive. But there’s something the criminals don’t know. As well as being observed by security cameras, they’re also being “sniffed out” by chemical noses hidden in the corridor wall. The smell sensors sound the alarm when the terrorists walk past, alerting an airport security guard who notes the problem on his monitoring equipment. At this point in time, he can’t tell precisely who is carrying hazardous chemicals – but he knows the sensor network will continue to “sniff out” and track down the suspects..... (presumably the same can be applied toward baggage, both carry-on and checked, hopefully reducing long security lineups before flights--Walter Derzko)

Researchers at the Fraunhofer Institute for Communication, Information Processing and Ergonomics FKIE in Wachtberg have built a prototype security system to replicate just such a scenario. They’ve named it HAMLeT, which stands for Hazardous Material Localization and Person Tracking. “HAMLeT will alert security personnel to suspicious individuals,” says head of department Dr. Wolfgang Koch from the FKIE. The system involves a network of highly-sensitive smell sensors which follow an explosive’s trail. There are oscillating crystals on the sensor chips, and whenever the electronic noses capture chemical molecules, their oscillation frequency changes. The precise nature of the change is different for different substances. A further component in the system – the sensor’s data fusion function – traces the explosive’s path and ferrets out the carrier. A second sensor network is needed to track the route the individual takes; for this, the researchers have used laser scanners. “HAMLeT’s real achievement is its ability to collate all the data and convert it into a clear and accurate overall picture,” says Koch. The sensor data fusion process employs complex algorithms which allow HAMLeT to build up a precise image of pedestrian flows and connect a particular smell with a specific individual.

In a trial involving the German Armed Forces, researchers at the FKIE proved the system’s ability to track down five “terrorists” carrying hidden explosives. The scientists are now working to refine the prototype’s algorithms in order to reduce the false alarm rate.

ETA: prototype stage-1-5 years before we see it in airports and possibly other high security venues.

But don't rejoice for to long....and sit back smug and complacent. Now terrorists will just switch to something more deadly -cyberterrorism, possibly joining up with hackers from the Russian mafia.

N.B. If Bin Laden's strategy is to bankrupt the west, then he is on track. Even a failed bomb attack will trigger an anticipated kneejerk reaction from authorities and "some new program" which will ultimately cost everyone much more money and time.

November 08, 2009

Buildings typically provide shelter from the elements, but one RyersonUniversity researcher thinks structures ought to relate more to the environment instead. To this end, she has created architectural "skins," which interact with the weather to ultimately create environmental structures that integrate form with function.

An associate professor in Toronto's Ryerson's School of Interior Design, Filiz Klassen's material innovations research in architecture has produced a series of building skins to create responsive structures which can be described as hot, cold, wet or dry. Examples include walls that reveal etched poems, create flashes of light, or that pulse with the pressure of wind, differences in temperature and lighting conditions or when subjected to rain.

By integrating weather elements into her innovative designs, Klassen is adding an entirely new dimension to architecture. It's not just about aesthetics, but a building’s dynamic response to the elements. Integrating innovative textiles and building materials will also change a building's environmental footprint by changing our attitudes and energy consumption. "Scientific research has produced materials that adjust to environmental conditions in different contexts," explained Klassen.

In the future, Klassen's conceptual designs could help catapult Canada ahead in the field of sustainable, energy-conscious building design, helping architects visualize building skins that harness, transfer and release nature’s energy for better performance rather than solely relying on mechanical heating, cooling and artificial lighting.

Klassen's first set of conceptual prototypes and a feature film documenting the process will be exhibited at Design at Riverside, Cambridge Galleries, Cambridge, Ont. from Nov. 17 to Jan. 3. Highlighting the connection between architecture and the physical environment, the show, Snow, Rain, Light, Wind: Weathering Architecture, will feature a number of interactive textile installations including engravings that shimmer with accidental and ambient lighting; walls that change colour with the temperature; and fabrics that channel daylighting. The exhibition also incorporates lenticular photographs, and the showstopper, an exterior installation that covers part of the building façade across from the gallery.

"We spend so much time and energy warding off or protecting buildings against the elements that it takes an adjustment to embrace their full potential," said Klassen. "I hope that my research can act as a catalyst to extend a language that is responsive to the climate in the architectural community in Toronto."

Now Richard Florida & his team weighs into the game. This comes from a press release from the Martin Prosperity Institute at the University of Toronto this morning--Walter Derzko

Ontario on the Move - Put Infrastructure Where it's Needed

Economic history has shown that changes in infrastructure systems have often underlain phases of significant economic growth. Railroads in the 19th century, highway systems of the 1960s, and the internet infrastructure of the late 20th century are prime examples. The innovation that gives rise to new infrastructure systems is often a response to severe stress and is often driven by desperate circumstances. Ontario's opportunity lies not in reacting to a crisis but in proactively investing in the infrastructure necessary for future success.

This Week's Working Papers:

These working papers highlight the diverse array of challenges and opportunities Ontario

faces as it transitions toward the creative age. They represent the next three of twenty working papers that we commissioned to support the core analysis of our report: Ontario in the Creative Age. We hope you find them engaging.

Expert, Consultant and Keynote Speaker on Emerging Smart Technologies, Innovation, Strategic Foresight, Business Development, Lateral Creative Thinking and author of an upcoming book on the Smart Economy "

December 13, 2008

Both US president elect Obama and Canadian Prime Minister Steven Harper have promised "New Deal" like infrastructure programs for the USA and Canada to spend their way out of a depression / recession (pick one). A new term is needed to describe this type of new intelligence-infused infrastructure. I call it the cognistructure-an infrastructure that thinks for itself.

Here's my list of top 10 smart technologies that both Olbama and Harper should have their eye on and on their planning radar screens; (Niche applications 10-6, more ubiquitous applications 5-1)

December 03, 2008

A while back when I was at the Idea Lab at the Design Exchange, I remember sitting over a coffee and exploring a thought exercise with some clients.

The question under debate was: What are the generic elements or activities that would accelerate any new technology platform, (such as smart technologies) and overcome the initial market interia. Simply put, Is there a generic technology evolution matrix?

One was having cartoonists make fun of your technology ( No, smart technologies aren't on Dilbert's radar screen yet, but any day now I hope) Another key event would be to have some influential CEO highlight the benefits of your technology in a milestone keynote speech (act as a complimentor-in business strategy terms. )

Well for smart technologies, that breakthrough event may have happened this month on November 6th, when IBM’s CEO, Sam Palmisano, outlined a new agenda for building a smarter planet - during a speech at the Council on Foreign Relation. (hat tip to Adam Christensen at IBM HQ)

From IBM's blog:

"In the speech, he outlines a number of the challenges faced today by people, governments, businesses and organizations. A lack of clean water for a fifth of the world’s population. Energy systems that waste more energy than they produce. Traffic in our cities that clogs roads and chokes economic growth.

Clearly there are no simple solutions for these problems.

Technology can play a big role in helping find answers to these problems. While the Internet currently connects more than a billion people, in just a few years, it will connect more than a trillion objects. Everything from cell phones, cars, roads, buildings, and even objects in nature itself, will have embedded technology and be connected to one another, enabling tremendous advances in how we understand how the world works and make smarter decisions to make it work better.

But technology is just part of the solution. Without the people, policies and culture to inspire and execute the change, nothing ultimately gets done."

From Sam’s speech:

[...] These collective realizations have reminded us that we are all now connected—economically, technically and socially. But we're also learning that being connected is not sufficient. Yes, the world continues to get "flatter." And yes, it continues to get smaller and more interconnected. But something is happening that holds even greater potential. In a word, our planet is becomingsmarter.

This isn't just a metaphor.I mean infusing intelligence into the way the world literally works—the systems and processes that enable physical goods to be developed, manufactured, bought and sold… services to be delivered… everything from people and money to oil, water and electrons to move… and billions of people to work and live.

What's making this possible?

First, our world is becoming instrumented: The transistor, invented 60 years ago, is the basic building block of the digital age. Now, consider a world in which there are a billion transistors per human, each one costing one ten-millionth of a cent. We'll have that by 2010. There will likely be 4 billion mobile phone subscribers by the end of this year… and 30 billion Radio Frequency Identification tags produced globally within two years. Sensors are being embedded across entire ecosystems—supply-chains, healthcare networks, cities… even natural systems like rivers.

Second, our world is becoming interconnected: Very soon there will be 2 billion people on the Internet. But in an instrumented world, systems and objects can now "speak" to one another, too. Think about the prospect of a trillion connected and intelligent things—cars, appliances, cameras, roadways, pipelines… even pharmaceuticals and livestock. The amount of information produced by the interaction of all those things will be unprecedented.

Third, all things are becoming intelligent: New computing models can handle the proliferation of end-user devices, sensors and actuators and connect them with back-end systems. Combined with advanced analytics, those supercomputers can turn mountains of data into intelligence that can be translated into action, making our systems, processes and infrastructures more efficient, more productive and responsive—in a word, smarter.

What this means is that the digital and physical infrastructures of the world are converging. Computational power is being put into things we wouldn't recognize as computers. Indeed, almost anything—any person, any object, any process or any service, for any organization, large or small—can become digitally aware and networked.

With so much technology and networking abundantly available at such low cost, what wouldn't you enhance? What service wouldn't you provide a customer, citizen, student or patient? What wouldn't you connect? What information wouldn't you mine for insight?

The answer is, you or your competitor—another company, or another city or nation—will do all of that. You will do it because you can—the technology is available and affordable.

But there is another reason we will make our companies, institutions and industries smarter. Because we must. Not just at moments of widespread shock, but integrated into our day-to-day operations. These mundane processes of business, government and life—which are ultimately the source of those "surprising" crises—are not smart enough to be sustainable.

[...]

Leaders will need to hone their collaboration skills, because we will need leadership that pulls across systems. We will need to bring together stakeholders and experts from across business, government and academia, and all of them will need to move outside their traditional comfort zones.

I’m struck by the questions this raises. What investments need to be made by both public and private institutions? What policy issues need to be debated and resolved? What role can individual citizens and employees play in helping bring about meaningful change?

I’m also struck by the potential opportunities inherent in finding solutions to these problems.

November 21, 2008

The Germans appear to be on the cutting edge of smart structures. I'm envious--too bad that Canadians or Americans aren't doing anything close to this.

On November 5, 2008 the Fraunhofer Institute for Microelectronic Circuits and Systems IMS inaugurated an unusual building: inHaus2. For about one-and-a-half years, this building has been the subject of research and development concerning intelligent construction, new materials and energy-saving systems. But from now on, visitors will also be able to witness future-oriented, constantly changing and flexible room concepts being tested – for hotels, offices and nursing homes.

Klaus Scherer of the Fraunhofer Institute for Microelectronic Circuits and Systems IMS, heads the inHaus innovation center in Duisburg Germany.

From the press release we get the following description of the 3 area of application

One of these is the Health and Care Lab, where new models are being developed which help to look after people in need of care, and the organization of care facilities is being made easier. Technical solutions can provide greater safety for elderly, disabled or sick people in need of care, without restricting their independence. In the next-generation nursing home with its networked room systems, cases of emergency can be automatically recognized and staff can react quickly. “But the idea goes much further than that, with sensors in each room automatically delivering electronic data to support the care documentation process. This would help to save an enormous amount of time and money, which in turn would benefit the patients,” explains Wolfgang Meyer of ambient assisted living GmbH. In order to find out how this idea would be received by the patients themselves and which measures would most effectively support the nursing staff, studies are being carried out at regular intervals with the help of everyone involved. On the occasion of the opening celebrations, the Fraunhofer Institute for Industrial Engineering IAO presented its showcase “Pflege 2020” (Care 2020), introducing a living environment for elderly people that enables them to remain active and independent, and ensures their safety.

The other two research areas – NextHotel and OfficeLab – are being coordinated by the IAO and implemented in close collaboration with Lindner Hotels and T-Systems. In order to ensure that the developments actually take users’ needs into account, test specialists from the inHaus application partners regularly assess how practicable the concepts are in everyday life and how they can be marketed.

“Innovations concerning buildings have not developed anywhere near as dynamically as those in other sectors over the past decades, if we exclude all the smart glass facades. The great bursts of innovation we have experienced in information technology or biotechnology, for example, have not yet taken place in this domain. But that is about to change in a big way. The energy crisis, global warming and, above all, new requirements in terms of flexible use will induce a huge innovation competition, not only in Germanybut also on a global scale. Everyone involved faces the same challenge – to realize ecologically, economically and socially sustainable buildings for living and working in,” says Prof. Dr. Hans-Jörg Bullinger, President of the Fraunhofer-Gesellschaft.

The plans and ideas of the nine participating Fraunhofer Institutes and their approximately 60 industrial partners cover a wide diversity of subjects. What unites them all is the goal of creating economical and environmentally friendly commercial properties – from construction and planning to materials research, running of the buildings, and various usages. “The visionary concepts being implemented here by the Fraunhofer researchers and their industrial partners will significantly change construction products and processes and the usage of buildings,” says Prof. Klaus Sedlbauer, director of the Fraunhofer Institute for Building Physics IBP. “This future-oriented model provides a great opportunity to positively and directly influence and improve people’s living environments.”

The state of North Rhine-Westphalia is already reaping the benefits: “The knowledge gained from the inHaus2 project with regard to lowering energy consumption in office buildings has been incorporated in the construction of the new building of the State Office for Data Processing and Statistics (LDS NRW). This means that inHaus2 has already entered the second chapter of its success story,” says innovation minister Professor Andreas Pinkwart.

A research program worth 27 million euros is scheduled to run until the end of 2011. Three-quarters of the approximately 9 million euros of investment funds required for the inHaus2 research facility is being provided by the EU and the state of North Rhine-Westphalia. The federal government, the city of Duisburgand the Fraunhofer-Gesellschaft are also supporting the project. The industrial partners and a range of public funding projects will each cover 50 percent of the costs for the inHaus2 research program. The joint activities are starting to pay off, as demonstrated by the first results: These include all the developed and tested components revolving around the intelligent construction site, ranging from electronic delivery notes and RFID goods-reading gates for delivery trucks to a construction-site portal and a digital building record (Digitale Gebäudeakte). The partners HOCHTIEF AG and T-Systems are already putting these results into practice at the next major building site: the Elbphilharmonie concert building in Hamburg.

I’d like to plant an idea with you – after speaking with a number of designers and vendors, I’m exploring the idea for a sustainability showcase that would feature theme based exhibits with smart technologies from Canadian and international sources-the best from Ontario, nationally and from around the world.

The launch would be 2010, The timing for this seems right. The target audience would be Canadian business, consumers and school children

I’m writing a book on smart technologies and this would be a logical extension of the concept.

Two years ago I talked to Samantha Sannella and Poala Polletto at the Design Exchange (DX) in Toronto and with several people at the Ont Science Center. Both groups expressed interest but said that we would need to find sponsors for the project

My business model for this would be three pronged -vendor based revenue, corporate based sponsor revenue and municipality based sponsorship ie city of Toronto or Mississauga and possibly the province of Ontario who may wish to promote sustainable manufacturing.

This concept would be a Canadian, in fact a North American first.

I have a list of 150 potential vendors, and designers from around the world who are working on smart technologies that we can start to approach.

The exhibits would be theme based, --the sustainable kitchen, the sustainable office, the sustainable retail shelf, the sustainable workspace, the sustainable community, the sustainable city etc and would be updated with new technologies every 3-5 years and have a 1-5 year forward focus. (what's commercially available now or in the very near future.

For other exhibits, there can be a regional or national focus ie smart sustainable technology from the UK, Finland, Germany (Fraunhofer Inst), China, Ukraine, Russia, or Singapore, Hong Kong etc

The Sustainability Showcase could be housed in a physical location, or it could tour from location to location around the city or province or be mobile ( on a bus the way the Japanese and Korean do- a display bus turned into a demo center that tours from school to school or to fairs and exhibitions.

OCAD students and staff and Beal senior fellows could play a hand in designing exhibit spaces and sourcing new vendors and sustainable technologies.

For anyone who is interested in exploring the idea of a Smart Sustainability Showcase for Toronto, we are having a meeting on Tuesday July 22 at 11 am at the Ontario College of Art & Design (OCAD), Beal Institute for Strategic Creativity, room 600, 6th floor , 100 McCaul St, Toronto just south of the Ont Art Gallery.

Please RSVP, so we know how many people are coming

I have had some positive feedback from several organizations, & I’d like to push the concept forward

I'm sending this nationally and internationally in case you are aware of any designers, vendors, manufacturers or research centers who have interesting cutting edge smart sustainable technology to showcase.

"Whether a molecule, a material, a composite, an assembly, or a system, 'smart materials and technologies' will exhibit the following characteristics:

Immediacy - they respond in real-time.

Transiency - they respond to more than one environmental state.

Self-actuation - intelligence is internal to rather than external to the 'material'.

Selectivity - their response is discrete and predictable.

Directness - the response is local to the 'activating' event.

They go on to challenge conventional design principles:

"It may be this last characteristic, directness, that poses the greatest challenge to architects. Our building systems are neither discrete nor direct. Something as apparently simple as changing the temperature in a room by a few degrees will set off a Rube Goldberg cascade of processes in the HVAC system, affecting the operation of equipment throughout the building. The concept of directness, however, goes beyond making the HVAC equipment more streamlined and local; we must also ask fundamental questions about the intended behavior of the system. The current focus on high-performance buildings is directed toward improving the operation and control of these systems. But why do we need these particular systems to begin with? The majority of our building systems, whether HVAC, lighting, or structural, are designed to service the building and hence are often referred to as 'building services'. Excepting laboratories and industrial uses, though, buildings exist to serve their occupants. Only the human body requires management of its thermal environment, the building does not, yet we heat and cool the entire volume.

"The human eye perceives a tiny fraction of the light provided in a building, but lighting standards require constant light levels throughout the building."

"If we could begin to think of these environments at the small scale - what the body needs - and not at the large scale - the building space - we could dramatically reduce the energy and material investment of the large systems while providing better conditions for the human occupants. When these systems were conceived over a century ago, there was neither the technology nor the knowledge to address human needs in any manner other than through large indirect systems that provided homogeneous building conditions. The advent of smart materials now enables the design of direct and discrete environments for the body, but we have no road map for their application in this important arena."

...We've started to chart that roadmap over the past three years ....see related posts below.

Over the past 10 years that I've been studying smart technolgies, I've come to a similar conclusion as Addington and Schodekm, long sensing that smart technolgies will have a disruptive and (r)evolutionary effect of society....McLuhan was right !!

"Looking to the future what might the information environment be like in 2017?

A decade is a very long time ahead to make predictions at a time when the library and information world is in such a state of turmoil and anxiety, but it is possible to identify some powerful trends that seem very unlikely to be reversed. A unified web culture It is self-evident that by 2017 the internet will have come of age for all ages and be completely integrated into most homes. The World Wide Web will become just that: survey research is showing us already that a remarkably unified set of online attitudes, activities and behaviours is beginning to emerge across many different countries as a few powerful brands (e.g. eBay, Amazon, FaceBook) become globally dominant. These services will become more personalised, more mobile, and even more intuitive: values that librarians both respect and are, in some cases, already emulating. In this unified global Web culture, national library services and provision will become far less meaningful, even quaint concepts (for example, research shows that British Library websites are very popular outside of the UK).

The inexorable rise of the e-book

Outside of leisure markets, we expect print sales to diminish sharply as electronic publishing initiatives such as blogs, RSS, integrated media players, pod casting and publishing-on-demand devices become established parts of the information landscape. Electronic books, driven by consumer demand, will finally become established as the primary format for educational textbooks and scholarly books and monographs, as well as reference formats. However the most significant impact for research will not be how things get published, but how they get accessed. In particular OLED (Organic Light-Emitting Diode) technology will allow the widespread publishing of information on demand, wirelessly delivered to an incredibly niche demographic31. This kind of publishing will be a potential headache for both research activity and archiving, since these publications can literally appear and disappear in an instant.

More content explosions

Scholars and researchers will benefit enormously from the huge mass book digitization programmes that are currently underway (e.g. Google Print) and from moves to archive research data as well as research findings. It is hard to predict the rate at which open access publishing and institutional archiving will increase, but libraries should start to plan now for a time, perhaps not so far off, when most scholarly articles are available to anyone from their desktop machine. This is both a major threat and an opportunity for libraries: it is likely to further fuel interest in scholarly content by people concerned about their health or the environment, from small businesses and the `amateur scholar'. Each month, across the globe, nearly a million new users join the internet, joining the 750 million already connected. Most are already generating their own content in the form of emails, blogs, wikis and personal websites and many more will follow. The scale of this phenomenon is unprecedented in human history: user-generated content is growing much faster than publisher or content with inevitable consequences. Library-sponsored content is shrinking in relative terms and it will become more difficult to find as users land where the search engines take them, not where librarians think they `ought' to land.

Emerging forms of scholarship and publication

As the information landscape is changing, so are the very processes of research. Scholars are beginning to employ methods unavailable to their counterparts a few years ago, including pre-publication release of their work, distributing it through non-traditional outlets such as institutional repositories, blogs, wikis and personal websites. They are also trying out new forms of peer review using online collaboration. This presents libraries with new challenges: archiving and managing different versions of scholarly material as they appear (and rapidly disappear) from the web. The key challenge for the whole academic community, including libraries, is how to take advantage of new interactive media while still protecting the integrity of scholarly media.

Virtual forms of publication

Already, real world information providers, from commercial publishers to university tutors, are engaging with Second Life to provide services for members of that virtual world and many see a longterm future in this kind of virtual publishing and broadcasting. The relevance of this for the virtual scholar is that it is indicative of new modes of engagement between content producers and consumers in the online world, and it is almost impossible to guess where this might lead.

The semantic web

The world wide web as we have seen and experienced it so far could be completely revolutionised by the advent of the `semantic web'. A system where, currently, humans express simple searches in everyday language, to order groceries, reserve a library book or look up a railway timetable, could be superseded by a system in which computers become capable of analysing all the data on the web. In the words of Tim Berners-Lee, this could mean eventually that "the day-to-day mechanisms of trade, bureaucracy and our daily lives will be handled by machines talking to machines". Some pundits believe that this scenario is very far away and, indeed that it may never happen on a wide scale. Our view is that the semantic web is a tool that will reach its tipping point fairly soon. In five years, 2013, there could be substantial developments that might allow a whole generation of undergraduates to begin to experience its potential. This is especially likely to be the case in niche areas, like e-Science, especially biology, creating new opportunities for major research libraries to be involved in completely new forms of activity such as real-time publishing and the sharing of experimental data on the internet.