253
FXUS64 KTSA 082050
AFDTSA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
250 PM CST Thu Dec 8 2016
.DISCUSSION...
Cold air is firmly entrenched...although afternoon temperatures
have managed to (barely) breach the freezing mark across most
locations. Winds will die off this evening as the surface ridge
slides east...with Friday morning temperatures generally ranging
from 10-15F north of I-40 to 15-20F south of I-40.
Chilly again on Friday with a very cold start to the day...but
increasing south winds by Saturday will allow temps to rebound
back into the 40s and well into the 50s/lower 60s by Sunday.
Increasing low-level moisture expected to result in areas of
light drizzle/light rain late Saturday night into Sunday especially
across our eastern areas. This is ahead of the next cold front
that is scheduled to pass through Sunday night.
The broad cyclonic mid-level flow along with significant
cross-polar flow at the far northern latitudes will continue to
send surges of Arctic air through next week. Extended models in
good agreement that the next shallow cold airmass arrives later
Tuesday...with much colder air expected by Wednesday. The previous
run of the GFS had developed a band of light post-frontal snow
across the area...although the latest 12z run as backed off and
keeps all wintry precip well to our north. The forecast will be
kept dry for now...but we`ll certainly watch this closely over
the next several days.
Extended models are also consistent in bringing yet another surge
of cold air for next weekend. This remains just beyond the scope
of the forecast...but this airmass could be colder than what we`re
experiencing now.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 15 36 25 46 / 0 0 0 0
FSM 19 39 24 46 / 0 0 0 0
MLC 15 39 26 46 / 0 0 0 0
BVO 10 35 20 45 / 0 0 0 0
FYV 12 36 18 42 / 0 0 0 0
BYV 14 33 20 42 / 0 0 0 0
MKO 15 37 23 46 / 0 0 0 0
MIO 11 33 20 43 / 0 0 0 0
F10 14 37 25 46 / 0 0 0 0
HHW 20 42 25 47 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....18