Thursday, February 23, 2012

No. 7 North Carolina has enjoyed a solid day and a half or so alone in first place atop the ACC standings. That will change tonight, when either Duke or Florida State joins the Tar Heels. The Blue Devils and Seminoles play tonight at 7 in Tallahassee in what just might be the most important regular-season college basketball game there in … forever? Probably not. But it has been a long, long time since Florida State hosted a game of this magnitude.

Both Blue Devils and Seminoles have beaten UNC head-to-head, and thus hold a tie-breaker over the Tar Heels. But for North Carolina to keep hope alive of winning the mythical ACC regular season championship, it needs Duke to win tonight in Tallahassee. The reason is obvious enough: UNC will get another chance at Duke. And the Heels will have no such opportunity against Florida State.

Of course, Florida State could win tonight and then stumble at some point in its final three games. The Seminoles go on the road to Miami and Virginia, before finishing the season at home against Clemson. But the most direct path for the Tar Heels to finish with the top seed in the ACC tournament is for Duke to win tonight, for UNC to win its next two – at Virginia and against Maryland at home – and then for the Heels to beat the Blue Devils in Cameron.

Easier said than done. But a Blue Devils victory tonight allows the Tar Heels to control their own destiny.

There are too many games left for this one to decide it alone. As a UNC fan, I'll take my chances with Duke losing tonight. FSU may lose again or they may not, but that doesn't really affect my decision. The way I see it, if FSU wins tonight and UNC wins the rest of their games, the worst case scenario is a tie for the regular season title. But, if UNC loses somewhere, then they aren't winning the title outright anyway, and at least Duke's chances are diminished by a loss tonight. Go Noles!

I'd rather for Duke to win tonight, but I'm not rooting for them to win. With an FSU win, and they and Tar Heels win out, that puts the Heels as #2 and Duke #3, possibly facing each other in semi's and not the finals. If Duke wins and the Heels knock them off in Durham(Senior night too), then the Heels have the #1 and would possibly face Duke in the finals for the rubber match, possible #1 in East on line. More to gain for Heels if Duke wins.

A true UNC fan would never ever ever pull for Dook in any capacity. Would much rather see FSU win the ACC crown then cheer for Dook. Regardless, if UNC wins out, even if they aren't the official conference champ, they are going to get a 1 seed. That is all that matters.

I personally see Duke losing tonight, and FSU losing to either Miami or UVA (both on the road). I think in the end UNC enter the ACC tourney as the #1 seed/FSU as #2/Dook as #3. Then, we get to see a 3rd rematch of FSU vs Dook. UNC will prevail in the end, and make all the pre-season hype a reality.

A win is a win, and a loss is a loss...Duke gets beat tonight. They do not win the ACC. They will not get to the Elite Eight. That is a fact. When they get down to a good team by 20, they will not come back. Coach K retires at the end of the season with health problems. Lol...

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About this blog

David Scott has been with the Observer for 28 years and has written about ACC, SEC and other college sports in the Charlotte region. He covers Wake Forest, South Carolina and college soccer for the Observer and (Raleigh) News & Observer.

J.P. Giglio covers the ACC for the News & Observer, where he has worked since 1997, and the Observer.

Andrew Carter covers the North Carolina Tar Heels for the Observer and News & Observer.

Laura Keeley covers the Duke Blue Devils for the Observer and News & Observer. Follow her on Twitter.

Chip Alexander covers the Carolina Hurricanes and college football for the News & Observer, where he has worked since 1979, and the Observer.

Luke DeCock has worked for The News & Observer since 2000. He covered the Carolina Hurricanes and the NHL before becoming a sports columnist for the Observer and News & Observer in August 2008.

Tim Crothers is an author and former senior writer at Sports Illustrated who is joining the sports staff to write a regular column during the rest of the college basketball season.