The NDP has opened up a slight edge on the governing Liberals in the latest poll numbers ahead of the May 9 provincial election, but issues like health care premiums and affordable childcare could still swing either party into the lead.

Chuck Chiang

Published on: March 1, 2017 | Last Updated: March 1, 2017 6:49 PM PST

B.C. NDP Leader John Horgan (right) and Vancouver Mount Pleasant MLA Melanie Mark, at a Vancouver day-care centre last fall, will be campaigning hard on $10-a-day daycare — an idea proving popular with voters, according to a new Mainstreet/Postmedia poll.Adam Foster / PNG Files

The NDP has opened up a slight edge on the governing Liberals in the latest poll numbers ahead of the May 9 provincial election, but issues like health care premiums and affordable child care could still swing either party into the lead.

That’s the conclusion of the Mainstreet/Postmedia poll released Wednesday, which had the NDP polling at 30 per cent, five points ahead of the Liberals at 25 per cent. The Greens (11 per cent) and the Conservatives (10 per cent) are well behind, while 24 per cent remain undecided.

The poll results come from a random sample taken on Feb. 25 and 26 of 2,352 B.C. residents and confirmed eligible voters. The margin of error is 2.1 per cent, 19 times out of 20.

Poll results.Maggie Wong /
PNG

Polling officials hesitate to call the results a definitive NDP lead, noting that the region outside of Metro Vancouver and Vancouver Island recently saw its undecided rate fall to 17 per cent — with the Liberals picking up the majority of the new support after its budget announcement last week.

“The NDP does have a lead at this point, (but) the only hesitation is because of what we see in the rest of B.C., where the undecided has given the Liberals a lead in that part of (the province),” said Quito Maggi, president of Mainstreet Research. “It may point to a similar break in the higher undecided in Vancouver and the Islands.”

What’s concerning for the Liberals, Maggi noted, is that the poll also revealed NDP and Green supporters overwhelmingly pick each others’ parties as a second choice. Maggi said it suggests the Liberals may have a harder time gaining more votes if strategic voting comes into play.

One issue that may help the Liberals is Medical Services Plan premiums. The Liberals announced in their provincial budget a 50-per-cent reduction in premiums, while some have suggested eliminating them completely in favour of an increase in income taxes.

On this last point — the suggestion of eliminating of MSP premiums and increasing income taxes — poll numbers indicate that 38 per cent of voters are against such a proposal (versus 36 per cent for and 26 per cent undecided). The strongest opposition comes from Conservative supporters and undecided voters — two groups the Liberals could look to for gains.

Another emerging issue may be more advantageous to the NDP. Poll numbers show robust support for $10-a-day daycare — an idea floated by child-care advocates in the province. The proposal has 46 per cent support in B.C., close to doubling the opposition rate (29 per cent).

Sharon Gregson, spokeswoman with the Coalition of Child Care Advocates of B.C., said the numbers do not surprise her at all, given that — in addition to parents and grandparents stressed by the lack of low-cost daycare options — employers are now realizing the economic drag that can occur when a parent is forced to take days off or quit to care for their children.

“I think the numbers is telling politicians this: They need to be smart and pay attention to what working families are telling them,” Gregson said. “No matter from what perspective, this is now a crisis, and the government has let it go for 15 years … This isn’t something that’s going to be a crucial issue in the election, because it already is.”

Ironically, the least impactful of the three policy questions posed by the poll may be the high-profile foreign buyer’s tax, where an overwhelming 57 per cent of respondents said the measure has had no impact on housing affordability in the province. Despite that, an equally high number — 60 per cent — said the tax was a good idea.

UBC history professor Henry Yu, a key researcher in B.C.’s multicultural issues, said the results are not surprising, but additional context may be needed to paint a clearer picture of what voters are saying.

“If the pollsters can go back out and ask again, I would ask them to ask about affordable housing, which was the nominal reason why this fund was raised,” Yu said. “It’s a red herring, this tax, because it’s a revenue generator. What are you using this revenue for? Is that one of the reasons people would be supportive of it?”

But Yu, who has criticized the use of the word “foreign” in the tax’s title as a potential veiled shot at the Chinese community, added it does appear the numbers reflect B.C. voters expressing distaste for foreigners owning property in the province beyond the affordability issue.

“If you are asking me to speculate whether there was a kind of cathartic punitive effect because of strong feelings against mainland Chinese as being the problem, then I’d say yes,” Yu said. “As I said at that time (of the tax’s announcement), it was worrisome that this was, in some sense, a kind of throwing a bone to those people who may feel better that we are ‘punishing’ those who are coming in with lots of money. But they are not the source of the high prices. This is a real estate economy.”

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