Golden Globes: Who Should Win, Who Will Win

Something you need to know before you dive into my predictions for the 2014 Golden Globe Awards: In the 13-plus years I’ve been doing this, I have never once been wrong. Save for in 2002 when Charlie Sheen won for Spin City. And 2008 when David Duchovny snagged a trophy for Californication. And 2012 when Kelsey Grammer triumphed for Boss. And… my point is this: Despite the occasional gaffe, my Globes track record is fairly solid. I’m feeling particularly confident about my picks for Sunday’s 71st annual ceremony (yes, Tatiana Maslany, you absolutely should prepare an acceptance speech).

So, scroll through the gallery below to view the results of my crystal ball consultation, as well as my choices for who should win, then hit the comments with your own Golden forecast. And then make a date with TVLine Sunday beginning at 8/7c for complete coverage of Hollywood’s biggest, booziest night.

Sure, I’d agree. And The Good Wife has been killing it. But I’m pretty sure it’s the previous season of TGW that’s up for the Globe, against the back half of the final season of Breaking Bad. I’m not sure a parallel universe even exists where TGW takes it over Breaking Bad.
Heck, even if I’m totally wrong and it’s THIS (staggeringly good) season of TGW that’s up against Breaking Bad, I don’t think Good Wife can take it. The concluding episodes of Breaking Bad were just that amazing. And I’m not someone who was head over heels, “this is the best show ever” about BB all the way through it’s run; but the final episodes made me a true believer.

It was no Breaking Bad! Look, I love The Good Wife, but it’s far from perfect. This season, with the great breakup, has still had the annoyingly non-charming Damian and the unappealing woman who’s been sleeping with Kalinda whose name I refuse to learn and the complete goofification of Marilyn.Not to mention how sidelined Kalinda has been for the last year and a half.

Breaking Bad didn’t have ANY of these issues. It should get a million awards. Game of Thrones should have at least been nominated and it deserves something, even in all this Breaking Bad hoopla.

@KevyB: Oh, I’m not saying that it was better than Breaking Bad by any means. I was just clarifying why it’s eligible and has a good chance to win. Breaking Bad had a fantastic stretch of eight episodes, that’s true. Then again, they were only eight episodes. The Good Wife has had a whopping 22 and has to adhere by broadcast standards, and even if we don’t consider that, The Good Wife is a compelling drama in its own right. Some are calling it the best series on all of television at the moment, and the people behind the Golden Globes have very short memories, quite honestly. I can see how The Good Wife might win, and it would still be a deserved win, regardless of some of the issues I share with you.

honestly, I think it would be the biggest joke if breaking bad doesn’t win, really these award shows are weird, its strange enough that they never rewarded breaking bad in any way; so many people call it the best show in television history. And the written has been so great.
Good wife is not even close to this…

@DL: I’m not saying episode count matters with eligibility, but it does matter with how the writers tell their story, and it’s universally agreed that the fewer the amount of episodes in a season, the tighter (and therefore better) the story is. Imagine Breaking Bad’s final season being 22 episodes. The former half of the season was a bit rocky already, and the final eight excelled because they were finally coasting through to the end, but even Vince Gilligan thought eight was too many episodes when he was breaking the final half. What I’m trying to say is that for 22 episodes, The Good Wife held some pretty amazing momentum, and can’t be judged the same as a cable series which typically has fewer episodes.

@taim: Honestly, I’m torn between Breaking Bad, The Good Wife, and Masters of Sex. It *is* weird that it hasn’t won before, but at least it secured an Emmy last year, and is still eligible for more Emmy love this year. I’d be OK with either series winning, honestly, maybe a bit more excited for The Good Wife so that the Emmys could realize what a mistake it was to not include it in its nominee list last year. Regardless, season five (of BOTH shows) is on fire.

House of Cards or BB will win. Maybe the nuts in the HWFP will give it to TGW, but I think they would go with House of Cards over BB before they would pick TGW. Sure I could be wrong, and if so I will admit Ausiello was right if it wins. I just doubt it.

What kind of argument is that? Have you even seen the rest of the nominated actors in their respective shows? Try it the other way. What if James Spader played Bill Masters or Walter White? For the record, I do watch The Blacklist, and I don’t think he should win. He is a good actor, though.

Yeah, it’s fun. You’re right, nobody cares about the HFPA, but it’s still a fun game to play figuring out what they will do, because they have some pretty crazy thoughts going on in their heads. I don’t think Ausiello’s choices are weird at all, because the HFPA is so weird, who knows what they’ll do in any category. Every long shot is a possibility here. J.Norman is a huge party pooper. But I did like his description of the “anti People Choice Awards.” That gave me a huge laugh. I’m going to use that description in the future.

It wont be the first or the last time that a great or a good show will go without any reward you dont have to go back that far to see this, go back one year to Fringe and the performances of John Nobel over the course of the series now that deserved at least a nod but nothing. So to say Breaking Bad should win then on popularity you may be right but The Good Wife is a Great show as well. And fully deserving.

I normally don’t care who wins, yeah I pick my favorite but if they lose I’m just like whatever, but I will be extremely sad and disappointed if Tatiana Maslany doesn’t win. She is off the charts amazing in Orphan Black.

Ausiello’s colleague Dan Fienberg put Maslany’s chances tomorrow this way: if she is able to break into a field, her chances of winning (being in a context where the voters HAVE TO watch her) go up exponentially.

It’ll be the nominations that continue to challenge her, being on a small, cult-hit show.

Exactly! I originally was just going to watch the pilot and binged on all 10 episodes like I’d fallen off the wagon and the show was a case of 18 year-old scotch. But, as good as the story and production have been, OB wouldn’t have been nearly as addictive if Maslany wasn’t the lead. She really is as good as everyone says. If you haven’t watched it, go. Now. And you’re welcome.

I really hope Amy Poehler finally gets her much-deserved Emmy. I hope she’ll win every year and every year I’m disappointed. And as much as I’d love the Good Wife to win, I think Breaking Bad deserves it.

Some of these predictions are weird. As much as I want Amy to win, I highly doubt she will. It’s going to go to Julia Louis-Dreyfus or Lena Dunham. The Good Wife probably won’t win nor will Monica Potter. The awards are going to go to the same old people that they normally go to. I want Amy, Monica, Kerry, and The Good Wife to win, but it’s not likely they will.

First, in my opinion, these are some of the weirdest predictions I’ve seen to date. Second, it’d be really great to see the reasons why so and so should win and so and so will win. I don’t understand the justification behind half of these.

It’s not about whether Ausiello is a fan of Breaking Bad. The HFPA hasn’t been. The odds aren’t great for them. Should be, probably won’t be. There’s no “obviously” about it. Sometimes they’re shockingly hip because they want to be the first to crown something, sometimes they get cranky and out of touch. Breaking Bad seems to have mainly fallen into the 2nd category. Shame. Maybe the final season’s hype will overcome that.

What about Kerry Washington? She’s glamorous and has that undeniable “wow factor”, she’s also a movie star, she had a distinguish 2013, first GG nomination, Scandal has a HUGE buzz, she lost the Emmy to Claire Danes, she’s the first African American actress being nominated for this category in 21 years…

Really? Kerry Washington over Tatiana Maslany? You gotta be kidding me. Tatiana is heads & shoulders over anybody else right now. Portraying 4 clones with totally unique personalities, clones who constantly pretend to be each other too!
Whereas Kerry has been sort of one-dimensional. Just look at her roles over the past 2 years: Scandal to Django Unchained were both quite similar characters. Besides she is no movie star, as Django Unchained is her only major movie credit in the past 5 yrs.

Now it’s actually quite ridiculous and stupid that you say how Kerry’s characters in Django and Scandal are similar. One is a slave who pines for her husband while the other is a bad-ass fixer who happens to have a scandalous love story on the side.
That being said, I do agree that she may not deserve the award tonight, because Tatiana has been killing it. But that surely doesn’t make Kerry’s character one-dimensional.

Personally, I’d be shocked if Kerry Washington DIDN’T win tonight. The Globes often tend to award “water cooler”, buzzy shows–as a recent example, Anna Paquin won for True Blood’s first season yet has never been nominated for an Emmy for the show–so even if Washington’s work isn’t the most cerebral or multi-layered(and don’t get me wrong, she’s terrific on the show) I still say she’s the one to beat.

i seem to be in a minority here but i’m really hoping James Spader wins. I’ve actually never really been a fan of his, but his acting in the Blacklist is second to none. i was worried his character would be two dimensional after the first episode, but he has brought a depth to a character that could have been likened to a cardboard cutout by another actor. In the ten episodes he has realistically shown every emotion, while making it very clear he is still a bad guy. Another website put it best by say ‘Red is not an anti-hero. He is a straight up villain that we can’t help but root for.’

There are a few phenomenal actors nominated that were fantastic this year, no question, but IMHO James Spader as Raymond Reddington is unparalleled.

I’m surprised you picked Jim Parsons over Michael J. Fox as the WILL WIN choice because HFPA loves to hand him statues and with the likelihood of renewal being minimal I think they will take advantage of this opportunity. I’d prefer Parsons or Bateman.

The Good Wife has been nothing short of phenomenal this year. But I truthfully don’t think it’s winning over Breaking Bad. BB is a master class of TV; it’s in a league of its own. And I think the HFPA, as odd as they can be, will agree. While I think Bryan should win, and has a good shot, voters do love themselves some Spader, so I wouldn’t be shocked, but I would be disappointed. Oh, and if Jon Voight wins over quite literally ANYBODY else in that category, I may just throw my TV out the window. I’m pulling for either Corey or Aaron, who both gave chillingly heartbreaking and emotional performances in their respective roles — more than anything Voight did in his role. And Josh Charles has been killing it this season. And even Lowe brought a dimension so creepy to his character as to make you forget it was him. What I’m saying is, everyone in Voight’s category out-performed Voight in some way or another and he truly shouldn’t win. And unless NBC bought the vote, since the GG are airing on NBC, I really don’t see Monica Potter winning. It’s not that she wasn’t really good in her role, but I just don’t see a win. The HFPA loves shiny new things, and while she is a new nominee, her character and show aren’t new enough for HFPA to throw the “shiny, new vote” her way, or her category in general.

While I’m iffy on some of your predictions, I truly hope you’re right about Amy *finally* getting some long-overdue recognition. I may be happier than Amy herself if she wins.

wow these predictions are so strange… I also don’t agree with many of the “should win”… breaking bad should win every category, it’s just superior… I really liked masters of sex and michael sheen but there is no way he “should” win over bryan cranston. the same with corey stoll instead of aaron paul and the good wife over breaking bad.
regarding the predictions, even though I love amy pohler and would love to see her win, I doubt it. I also love ahs: coven, but behind the candelabra is a shoe in. I’m also doubtful about andy samberg, monica potter and tatiana maslany winning…

I just wish my shows would get nominated in any category. I mean Revenge is a hit show, so I can’t believe it doesn’t get recognize in some way. Granted season 2 was a mess, but season 3 has turned the show around and made me fall in love with the show again. I watch Modern Family and I know that show will always win, but it would be nice to see of my other favorite shows get nominated and win for something.

I enjoy Revenge too, but it’s not even in the same league as the majority of the shows nominated on this award show and several others (Emmy’s, SAG, etc.). The only award shows I can potentially see Revenge nominated in would be People’s Choice or Teen Choice Awards.

this is going to sound redundant… but these predictions have actually blown my mind for how terrible they are… i typically hate comments like the one i’m leaving right now, but i am really looking forward to heading back here tomorrow and comparing the actual winnings to this bizarre list. and this is my favorite tv site, one that i am usually really impressed with its accuracy!

also, i’m loving the cutoff on articles in readers. i typically click over anyway, but the change kind of sucks.

Oi, this is going to be a long post. I apologize beforehand.
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Oh, man, there is no way The Good Wife wins. I mean, if it does, I’ll gladly eat humble pie, but I just cannot see this happening. I’m calling it for House of Cards because it seems like the kind of thing they would go for. Buzzy new show being aired on a buzzy new platform. Plus it has movie stars! If not House of Cards, then Breaking Bad. But if Breaking Bad wins, it will only be because they got guilted into voting for it. I have never been convinced they liked Breaking Bad. Bryan Cranston had already won multiple Emmys for that show before the Golden Globes would even start nominating him. Aaron Paul just barely got his first nomination this year. And Anna Gunn still goes without a GG nomination. They are not crazy about Breaking Bad the way the rest of us are. Masters of Sex is the only other show I can see that even has a shot because it’s new, sexy, and also buzzy. And also AWESOME.
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I’d love, love, love to see Michael Sheen win, or even Bryan Cranston, but I think it’s going to be Spacey. He’s an Oscar winner. Again, they love movie stars, especially charming ones. I think Taylor Schilling takes best drama actress, but I admit I’m not confident on that decision. My thinking is it will be her because OITNB was so incredibly popular and buzzy when it came out. But I wouldn’t discount the ever glamorous Kerry Washington here.
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I don’t think TBBT will win, but I can’t think of a good reason why anything else in that category would win, so…[shrug]. I picked Girls, but I’m probably wrong. I feel the same way about comedy actor. I have no idea what will happen there, but I picked Michael J. Fox. I’ve got Julia picked for comedy actress because she’s won everything else so far. But they didn’t nominate Veep, shockingly, so who knows. Maybe they really do pick Amy since she’s the host of the show.
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That’s an incredibly bold move picking AHS to win over Behind the Candelabra, Ausiello. A bold move indeed.
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Yeah, Michael Douglas wins. Anyone would be a fool to argue against that. Elisabeth Moss has got a great shot to win, but I’ve picked Rebecca Ferguson. I loved Top of the Lake to death, but I’ve seen The White Queen, and I feel confident in saying Rebecca Ferguson has the best shot to win. Pretty much from the first episode, you watch her and you think, Who is this actress? She just has that quality, that star quality. She’s luminous. Plus they obviously loved The White Queen, they nominated it in three different categories.
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I 100% agree on Jon Voigt. I won’t even pretend to know who will get supporting actress though. Sofia Vergara? Who knows. That category consternates me.

I’m with you on the supporting actress category. (I hate how the HFPA breaks up their supporting TV categories.) You mentioned Sofia, who is actually my pick to win. I think many a person is placing her very low on their lists in this category, but I think it’s a sever underestimation. I actually think Monica and Hayden aren’t even in the conversation (I could very well be wrong, though). But the HFPA clearly loves Jacqueline, Janet, and Sofia. Jacqueline has 5 total nominations and Jane and Sofia both have 4. The thing is, Janet has already won once, so I wouldn’t be surprised if HFPA overlooks her because she’s already a GG winner. And, like I said, while they clearly love Jacqueline, I don’t think “Dancing on the Edge” really has much momentum (if any at all). Sofia has been nominated 4 years in a row, and has been nominated almost every year she’ been eligible for MF, save for 2010 — but that was just months after the show started. I’m not definitively saying she will win, but I really wouldn’t count out Sofia because she clearly has HFPA behind her (unlike someone like Monica who is only working on her 1st nomination after years and years of being eligible) and they may be looking to reward her after 4 nominations. Plus, she has the whole foreign association going on, which may not help, but I’m sure doesn’t hurt.

I’ll argue against Michael Douglas, but only because having seen both Behind the Candelabra and as love-time love of Luther, I think Idris Elba actually has a shot. He lost the first time in a similar setup, but this time he’s rolling in a former Globe winner off the last and by far best on his part series of Luther. Nothing else in the category (and for once I happen to have seen them all) comes close to the quality that Luther was dishing out.

I still think it will totally be Douglas, but he’ll split the I’m-a-legend-I-won-an-oscar vote with Pacino (who won the Globe three years ago and also portrayed an entertainment figure) and to some part Damon. I can’t help but hope that the we-love-oscar voting split will fall out and Idris will come out on top.

I love James Spader in The Blacklist, so, on an emotional level, I’d like to see him win. But when I remove the emotion, I think his performance, though entertaining, isn’t as much of a stretch as those of some of the other nominees. Winning a dramatic acting award should be about a great performance not just the most entertaining one.

Don’t get me wrong, throughout the years, the show has been occasionally snuffed. But I wouldn’t exactly say they’ve been overlooked. I mean, for their performances, Julianna has won a Golden Globe, an Emmy, and 2 SAG awards, Archie has won an Emmy and an NAACP Image award, both Carrie Preston and Martha Plimpton won Emmys for their guest performances on the show, the show itself won a Peabody Award, not to mention the countless nominations for a plethora of awards for the show and all the actors. Compared to so many other shows on the air, TGW is actually heaped with awards.

I loved Top of the Lake, and Elisabeth Moss, but I honestly thought her acting was iffy throughout. The accent was poor. She slipped up a lot back to her American accent. She is much better in Mad Men.

Robyn Malcom did a better job with her fake American accent than Moss did with her kiwi, and Robyn’s american is far from par. (I will never understand why you would do a thing like they did to a phenomenal actress like Robyn. Alas!)

Ausiello’s list sounds more like his own wishful thinking in most of these categories… like he figures since he’s had a good track record in the past he can pick his favorites and they’ll manage to win. Not much logic or reason factored in to some of those choices it seems. But I can’t fault the hope of seeing Tatiana Maslany win – she’s portraying more characters alone than her combined competition in the category and manages to make you forget each character is played by the same person – not many actors could pull that off.

I stopped watching Parenthood midway through last season, but I remember Monica’s performance being the best on it at the time. I don’t know how the show’s been right now, so for me, I’d really love to see Hayden Panettiere win that category. She’s basically carrying Nashville on her back and one of the main reasons that I enjoy that show.

I think that TVGuide’s picks are way more accurate. These just seem to be Ausiello’s picks, to be honest. I really can’t see The Good Wife or James Spader winning. Even Monica Potter, who DESERVES to win, might not since Parenthood has never been loved by the awards.

ABM; ANYONE But Maslany. I don’t think HFPA members have forgotten the slightly embarrassing sight of Diahann Carroll demanding the Emmy voters pick Kerry Washington for one of the most over the top roles, for all the wrong reasons,,in recent TV history. I’m going with Marguiles for the upset. She led the resurgence on CBS’ best show and should be rewarded for it here.