Guest Post: Libya's Post Gadhaffi Future - Who Gets The Oil?

Muammar Gadhaffi’s 42 year-old regime is in its death rattle – maybe today, maybe tomorrow, his administration that has ruled Libya with a quixotic and brutal hand is about to pass, in Trotsky’s piquant phrase, “into the dustbin of history,” prompting the question “what next?”

The glittering prize is Libya’s 1.6 million barrels per day output of high quality crude, which accounted for about 2 percent of global oil output drawn from Africa's largest oil reserves, whose exports have been stymied since the NATO-led campaign began six months ago. Projecting into the future, analysts believe that has reserves to sustain its previous level of production for 80 years.

Who will eventually control this asset, with oil prices currently at roughly $84 a barrel, generating an income of more than $12.6 million per day?

Italy’s ENI?

France’s Total?

Britain’s BP?

U.S. companies?

Or, will China add Libyan future production to its string of acquisitions, as it is already China’s eleventh largest source of imports?

The crystal ball is murky indeed, but when the uprising against Gadhaffi began six months ago, according to the Chinese media, about 36,000 Chinese were in Libya working on 50 projects.

Cautiously accepting the new reality, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Ma Zhaoxu said in a statement posted Monday on the ministry's website, "The Chinese side respects the choice of the Libyan people. The Chinese side is willing to work with the international community to play a positive role in the reconstruction process of Libya in the future."

The key word here is “reconstruction,” a noun conspicuously absent from any statements by the NATO coalition members.

When the uprising against Gadhaffi began 75 Chinese companies had already invested billions of dollars in Libya in infrastructure projects, including oil, railway and telecoms projects. After the insurrection erupted in February China began a substantial land, sea and air evacuation operation of its nationals.

Benghazi-based Libyan rebel oil firm Arabian Gulf Oil Co. (AGOCO) information manager Abdeljalil Mayouf cautioned however that China’s “softly, softly” approach to the uprising may initially cost it influence in the new Libyan reality, saying, We don't have a problem with Western countries like the Italians, French and UK companies. But we may have some political issues with Russia, China and Brazil.”

While many analysts believe that Italy’s ENI and France’s Total could be successful in post-insurrection Libya because of their countries' heavy support for the rebels, it may all devolve down to a question of funding, and given Beijing’s pockets, despite its caution in its foreign policy, that may well give China the edge.

Few promoting the prospects of Italian and French energy firms now remember that just a couple of months ago the Libyan dissidents were literally begging for financial assistance.

Furthermore, particularly in African endeavors, Chinese investment has extended far beyond mere resource acquisition to providing infrastructure essentials such as roads, schools and health clinics, all of which will be in short supply in post-Gadhaffi Libya.

Finally, certainly last but not least, China has no history of colonialism in North Africa, unlike Libya (occupied by Italy, 1911-1947), Tunisia (France, 1883-1956), Algeria (France, 1830-1962), Morocco (France, 1906-1956) and Egypt (Britain, 1882-1922.) While such issues are not fiscally tangible, they may well influence the post-Gadhaffi negotiations.

Waiting in the wings are U.S. and Canadian companies such as Marathon, ConocoPhillips, Hess, Occidental and Suncor, which withdrew Libya at the onset of insurrection, as well as Russian companies, including oil firms Gazprom Neft and Tatneft, which had projects worth billions of dollars in Libya alongside Brazil’s Petrobras. BP, which did not have production in Libya before the war, said it was planning to return for exploration efforts.

In the coming weeks Libya’s National Transitional Council will doubtless be inundated with offers from various companies promoting their advantages. Total and ENI have the inside geographical edge, being across the Mediterranean, while American and British companies have cutting edge technology to refurbish Libya’s decrepit energy infrastructure.

But it is too early to count China out from the race – they do not come burdened by history, and they come with deeper pockets than all their competitors. The NTC, if it indeed represents the Libyan people, will not be unswayed by such concerns, as the European rivals have yet to utter the one of the words most dreaded on Wall Street in considering profits, “reconstruction.” Whatever the shortcomings of Beijing’s views of events in Africa’s largest oil producer, they do extend beyond mere corporate profits to include rebuilding, which is likely to ensure them a place at the table.

Well first, they're not responsible or experienced enough to set up a democracy so first, our executive must violate the war powers act to demostrate exactly how a a "true" American democracy works. Then, they must be forced to set up a democratic puppet regime where, now this is important, each puppet has an equal right to say what they are told and paid to say. It's only after they realize, talking to Iraqis, that westerners are only there to take their oil, that things start to divert from the master plan.

Yes, but this is not just about an oil patch, but about control of the monetary system that will control everything. Libyans get ready for loans from the IMF so you can build infrastructure, and guess what we know the Multinationals that can do it. Its going to be expensive, but you will prosper until your debt exceeds your GDP because of interest payments for those loans. Don't worry we can roll that debt over for you, but we will need you to privatize some of your resources, implement higher taxes, lower wages, raise interest rates, ect...and no you can't print your own money anymore those days are over. You will be required to sell the oil to whoever we tell you to sell it to (in Dollars of course)which will give us leverage against that country. Welcome to servitude, I mean U.S. democracy. China and Russia squeezed out of the picture. This is economic warfare against anybody thats not on the side of the U.S..

Yes, its all all about getting countries on the Rothschild Teet. The Libyans will have their Red Pill moment long after they are hooked on endless debt and discover they have now become part of the wonderful global community aka ROTHSCHILD OWNS YOUR ASS BITCHEZ!! They will have iPads, McNuggets and 7 credit cards each to buy more worthless shit. Then they will discover the real reason for their "tears of liberation" a couple of days ago in Green Square.

As stomach-churning as that sounds, it's probable. By the time the Libyan populace realize that there will be no more oil dividends, free hospitals, and free universities, their oil facilities guarded by Blackwater thugs, billions of overseas assets missing, not to mention their gold, it'll be too late to have another go at a revolution - they'll be living in a military/police state like the rest of us if they are lucky or a version of Baghdad if they are not.

The most important man in the new regime, Ali Tarhouni (Finance and Oil Minister) is an interesting figure. He has been living in the USA (No surprises there) since 1978, which makes him an American, and until recently taught Business economics at Washington Univ. Michael G Foster School of Business. Academia is usually cocooned from the rest of society, so perhaps he was fortunate enough to avoid all the raghead and sandnigger epithets during the past couple of decades from his peers. If so, forget all the other nations, the fact that he has the crucial post for the next year at least means that, almost certainly, Libyan assets will be America's.

So ironic and so probably true. All this so that those new sheeple can be sheared not by their own Oligarch in power since 40 years but by the foreign oligarchs. Now that is reverse engineering à la France-Afrique!

Just look at Gabon and Congo, Ivory Coast, Nigeria and Angola, and you'll know where the new Libya is heading!

Who cares if its Total, BP or Shell, it'll be the usual suspects, give or take a few Oligarchs from "East of SUez", China oblige!

The topic of who gets the oil is interesting, but it will all be moot when Gadhaffi or forces loyal to him hide out in the Libyan desert, invite Iran to set up a nuclear missle there, and fire that missle at Israel. At that point, the question of who owns the Libran oil will be the least of anyone's problems.

I am going to ignore your anti-semitic stupidity and focus on your overall stupidity. Do you really think a single nuclear strike against Israel would be all there is to it? Nuclear missles would be launched in response from lots of places to lots of places. Maybe one would even hit you...

That is until the looser of an asymmetric war (such as Gadhaffi in Libya) wants to start a nuclear conflagration amongst the victors. I am just saying that a vengeful Gadhaffi and a power-hungry Iran are a dangerous combination.

Please explain one armed conflict instigated by Iran in the last 100 years. I'm all ears. Surely they've been involved in several, trying to expand their borders being "power-hungry" and all.

I'm not a fan of the current regime in Iran, but they pose ZERO threat to the USA. They are arming themselves as we would be doing if the Chinese had 10 bases in Mexico & Canada, air craft carriers along both coasts, and were using war rhetoric against us. If the US withdrew from the region, the whole Iranian regime would fall within weeks. We are perpetuating this.

Gadhaffi has never posed a threat to the US. He's a village idiot, but he didn't do anything to provoke regime change. An armed group of al qaeda rebels decided they wanted to throw him out & take his gold & resources. NATO backed these thugs. If he counter attacks with something fierce, I'd say NATO brought it upon themselves.

All these real and rhetorical conflicts have nothing to do with US national security. If a nuclear bomb goes off, odds are the US and/or Israel are behind it.

When the uprising against Gadhaffi began 75 Chinese companies had already invested billions of dollars in Libya in infrastructure projects, including oil, railway and telecoms projects. After the insurrection erupted in February China began a substantial land, sea and air evacuation operation of its nationals.

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Why there is an "arab spring" at all: Western powers Griefing and Spoiling China and Russia. Hopefully, it backfires in a spectacular but rather messy way!

According to the James Corbett the one of the 1st thing the rebels (why aren’t they called insurgents? They fit the definition perfectly) did was attack a Chinese factory. They know where there bread will be buttered.

hmmm, then the ground invasion will begin. Might as well just continue down into Sudan as well. You know the HARVARD Humanitarian Initiative and The Satellite Sentenel Project have discovered mass graves there. We won't talk about all the oil Sudan has though. That's never a reason there is so much "liberation" happening. It's always a HUMANitarian thing! fuckers.

Tyler, please stop presenting morons. Surely you can find people to pay you to be posted who are not morons.

"Projecting into the future, analysts believe that has reserves to sustain its previous level of production for 80 years. "

THIS IS NOT HOW IT WORKS.

You do not take reserves and divide them by production and announce XXX years..

Production falls off long before the field is empty. This is just stupid. You can sustain "its previous level of production" only for as long as new drilling offsets dying old wells. There is ZERO evidence that would be 80 years for Libya.

Look at the latest news out of Iran. They are looking at 300K bpd production fall off because of the death of old fields. Look at the North Sea. They get all the new drilling they want and they are cratering 100s of K bpd per year.

And look at Mexico. They are even worse.

Stop presenting morons who divide reserves by PRESENT PRODUCTION to quote how long they can hold that production level.

Refineries pay Brent prices if they are on the coast. Only the midwest refineries with access to Cushing can pay WTI prices, and they price their output gasoline like the prices out of the coastal refineries.

Brent's down about $15 from its high. Gasoline is up 20% on the year because Brent is $14 higher than it was at the start of the year.

The futures markets mean NOTHING to a refinery trying to negotiate a price. The only thing that matters is what the Chinese are willing to pay. That number is Brent or TAPIS, both between $110 and $120. And yes, that means Brent just rose over $110 again today. Spread $25. (It was about 14 and rising sharply before Libya ever hit the radar screen).

OT. Has anyone here heard anything about an Iraqi Dinar revaluation that, if you bought $1000 of dinars now and took possession of the notes, after the revaluation it would be worth millions of dollars? If they revalue based on value of oil production minus gov. expenses a dollar would buy considerably less dinars then than now. However would the old notes just be exchanged for new like they did in Mexico 15 yrs ago w/o any value gain in exchange? Anyone know or care out there?

The US will get the oil, TI/Brent blows out to a permanent $50 and Libya gets renamed to 'SPR'. Every war for the past 15 yrs has been about oil, and this is no different. Unfortunately the house wins again.

Time to loan them some money to rebuild, which they can distribute amongst their leadership as inefficiently as we do here, leaving the counry permanently indebted under the weight of crushing foreign obligations. Then we can take the oil, the gold, and whatever else is available for plunder through more legal means than just sending in some tanks.

Norman Schwartzkopf I hope you'll be proud of us, we did just what you did in 1991 with Iraq : we attacked mercilessly with top-technology a 3rd world country which only has 1970's Russian obsolete weaponry to defend itself...

This time we **had** to win! It's so mch easier to destroy an harmless nation!

Well, if you consider that Norm and the JEDIz took a look at the sixthieme paraz and said "dudes, go left, way, way left. No, some more, OK go left more. Then, well, go long"

Etrangerez were no-playaz, maybe the french populace took great pleasure in that.

So, did the Frogs win Libya? I've been wondering. Seemed like very confusion all through, a) who was the rebelz? b) What were Susan and Hillary up to? c) Why the NATO playaz went Winchester on the first round? d) who was doing all of the laser-tag? e) what codez were being used for laser-tag?

Did "Le Grande Charlez" get out of port this time?

Just wondering, but, well, you b so prowd. Why, singing the anthem and all?

only fools still believe that the prize, oil, will be divided up among the strongarms of society. You underestimate the Libyan people and their resolve to fight off westernism in whatever form it may appear. Gadhaffi is no better yet no worse than any other leader currently in a leadership position. At the very least, he is being removed because of some faux war crimes or crimes against humanity. But I would guess he is being removed because of his unwillingness to sell out his country to the international bankers including a more typical central bank. Many here believe the prized assets will be divided among the strongarms....and as such....beliefs form reality. If you truly wish for a different outcome then I suggest you consider voicing your support for the Libyan people and the belief that they will prevail.

Agree 100%. The view of Gadhaffi that is presented in ALL western media is ridiculously distorted. He has created modern Libya as the country with the highest living standards in Africa. So he was a target for the AngloAmericanZionist powers. Gadhaffi is on YOUR side if you are not a member of the NWO elite. He is not finished yet, and I wish him success. The tragedy is the ease with which the media manipulates the sheep in Europe and the US.

dogismyth wrote "Many here believe the prized assets will be divided among the strongarms....and as such....beliefs form reality. If you truly wish for a different outcome then I suggest you consider voicing your support for the Libyan people and the belief that they will prevail. "

Exactly. Gadhafi and Libya were attacked by the U.S. and NATO for actually practicing what ZH advocates everyday on this site - a gold standard, rejection of the international banking system and being self-sufficient. Nothing wrong with supporting the six million people of Libya who never deserved being terrorized and bombed by the U.S. and NATO.

What if this isn't about oil or gold? What if this is (ultimately) about creating a new boogeyman to "terrorize" the civilized world. CIAlqaeda just got a new front man along with nuclear weapons capability and lots of untraceable funding in the form of shiny gold bars..................

I'm sure Obama has a detailed post-war plan ready to ensure total peace, secure any and all nasty weapons, provide electricity to everyone, and prevent any kind of inter-tribal "squabbling". Because, you know, if he doesn't, he'll be making all the same mistakes he criticized Bush for. But I suppose he can always distance himself from Libya later - after all, it wasn't really his war...

Libya is a shithole. There's a reason why Tripoli held out so long as it did. People in western Libya can't stand people from eastern Libya. The oil is not going to go back to 1.6mm b/d anytime soon. France and Italy are fukked.

Uuhh, BP aka The Queen of England (who just happens to be German) BP is who helped get Gadaffy out of jail, go search it, he was terminally ill with cancer remember? Then he leaves for NY and takes up residence in Donald Trumps back yard while his house down the street is being renovated, true story.

I don't think anyone will get it for a loooong time. Another Afghanistan there, no winning and no pulling back. Libyans will not quit fighting back. I'd be surprised if Gaddafi didn't 'scorch the earth' before he falls. I hope he destroys NATO for this, no less than they deserve.

Ill tell you what should happen to Libyas oil. The UNITED STATES OF AMERICA SHOULD TAKE EVERY LAST DROP OF IT and give the Libyan 'people' NOTHING. In fact, we should sell it back to them for a rediculous price, just like we do here in America.

You see, in Libya, the government owns EVERYTHING the country 'produces', which is mostly OIL. THEY sell it, take the money and give SOME OF it to the people. THAT is their entire economy just like Saudi,Iran,Iraq,Qatar, Egypt, etc etc etc.

Without GOVERNMENT HANDOUTS ALL OF THOSE PEOPLE would have the same fate as SOMALIS. Dying in the streets, FAMINE on a BIBLICAL scale. What does SOMALIA lack? OIL and a government to control it.

IF the United States operated the SAME way as those countries, we wouldn't have a problem. Gasoline would be $1.00 per gallon, electricity - practically NOTHING, same goes for EVERYTHING WE 'PRODUCE' - food, nat gas, propane, water, lumber. We would have national health-care, 0% poverty, and NO STUDENT LOANS as college would be paid for by the government as it is IN THOSE ASS-WIPE countries.

America - the ONLY COUNTRY on the planet that can run about taking over other countries but letting them keep all their 'stuff' and all their government handouts.

Hear Hear Brother! Cant let those goddamned brown people wipe us chosen folks off the map! Funny though, to see all the retarded goyim fighting all our battles, subsidizing our country too, while we destroy everything dear to them, and steal all their wealth like we tried in Russia. Hahaha! Cant wait for the day I can buy a zionist christian girl for a night. for the equivalent price of a pack of smokes :) Hahaha! Fucking goyim retards!

Hear Hear Brother! Cant let those goddamned brown people wipe us chosen folks off the map! Funny though, to see all the retarded goyim fighting all our battles, subsidizing our country too, while we destroy everything dear to them, and steal all their wealth like we tried in Russia. Hahaha! Cant wait for the day I can buy a zionist christian girl for a night. for the equivalent price of a pack of smokes :) Hahaha! Fucking goyim retards!

Muammar Gadaffi is an unfortunate hero just like Hannibal his predecessor more than 2000 years ago.

At least till now. But the last chapter in this battle is not yet written!

Here is my opinion: the rebells are too weak to win over Gaddafi because as a matter of fact he has the support and the sympathy of the mayority of the Lybian people.It is a matter of honor to fight for Gadaffi and not a matter of money.

The rebells will need more help from outside. They need fearless trained fighters from outside to do the job. Who could this be? Only if US, UK and France are willing to pay the blood price for their soldiers then Gaddafi will be defeated quickly. Oil costs a lot of lifes.

Or the alternative is to continue the bombing including the killing of civillians and to keep this conflict on a low flame till Tripoli is giving up due to lack of water, food, energy etc. But this can continue only for a few days more because otherwise it would then clearly show the whole world, that Nato actions initiated by Sarkozy (the US of course is pulling the ropes) did not protect civilians it simply butchered them.

My forecast is, there will soon be a false flag operation in France or Italy. A terror attack which can then be blamed on Gadaffi thus giving the reason to send in elite troops to end the fighting.

Or maybe this is not even needed because one can already read in Bloomberg TV such slogans like "chemical weapons", dirty bomb" which could be used as last ditch operations from Gadaffi . Maybe this will be reason enough to send the troops in. At least they are trying this version first as it appears to me.

Sounds very familiar isnt it? But maybe its the best what can happen now so that the massive use of high explosives against often completely innocent humans is stopped as fast as possible.