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Climate change and Martha’s Vineyard

Beachgoers and tourists on Martha’s Vineyard this summer are likely to be thinking more about clambakes than climate change. But the prospect of rising sea levels on the island has absorbed the attention of a geography graduate student.

Jonathan Pollak, who earned a master’s degree in May, wrote his thesis on what would happen on the Vineyard as sea levels and storm surges rise with climate change, and which areas would be most vulnerable, not just physically, but socially and demographically, too.

Using GIS data, Pollak traced the conditions that climate change could cause over the lifetimes of the next couple of generations of beachgoers. A 5-meter rise in sea level would inundate large parts of Martha’s Vineyard, he found, and much of the critical infrastructure – roads, police and fire stations, hospitals – would be vulnerable in a storm surge.

So far the sea level rise around Martha’s Vineyard has been modest – two or three millimeters a year — but it is likely to rise faster in the future as glaciers melt and the oceans get warmer and expand, and that poses an important risk for the islands to consider, Pollak says.

“How can policymakers make better informed decisions related to adaptation to climate change?” he asks. GIS and census data can be used to guide such decisions, he says.

If sea levels were to rise a meter, one percent of Duke’s County (Martha’s Vineyard and Gosnold, the town that covers the Elizabeth islands) would be under water. But the effect would escalate rapidly if sea levels rose three meters: as much as 12 percent of the country would go under. A 4- to 5-meter rise would be catastrophic, he found.

Storm surges also would be more dramatic if sea levels rose. More frequent strong hurricanes and tropical storms are expected with climate change. Pollak’s “worst case scenario” showed 20 percent of the islands being inundated by a Category 4 hurricane. (Katrina, by comparison, was a Category 5 storm.)

The highest elevation on Martha’s Vineyard is about 90 meters. The biggest impact on people of rising sea levels would be in the more touristy lower areas (down island), that are also the most populous –places such as Edgartown, Tisbury, and Oak Bluffs, where infrastructure is located — the airport, seaport, lighthouses, and police and fire stations.

A stronger tidal current in Edgartown harbor would cause problems. The bridge to Chappaquiddick could complete its disappearing act, already underway.

The more developed areas down island have more people, and residents with low incomes would have fewer resources for coping with changes in housing or transportation. Although property values on the Vineyard can be in the millions, the median income in Duke’s County is well below $100,000, he found.

The affluent tourist trade would also be affected, as well as commercial fishing, the backbones of the area’s economy.

While some coastal communities around the country have developed Climate Action Plans, or CAPS, to mitigate the effects of global warming, by reducing greenhouse gas emissions, for instance, planning adaptive measures for vulnerable populations is less common.

Adaption plans could include such things as where to get fresh water, finding ways to cope with land subsidence and storm surges, and making sure that property is insured.

GIS data can show where the vulnerabilities are and help towns develop strategies to manage them.

“It was really rewarding to see it play out geographically, culturally, and socially,” says Pollak. It was just the type of work he wanted to do when he left his job working for a government contractor in the Washington, DC area and returned to graduate school.

“I came back to school knowing I wanted to look at human-climate interaction.”

After earning his degree in May, he went to work for the Consortium of Universities for the Advancement of Hydrologic Science, Inc., Medford, Mass., which promotes water research.

As an undergraduate at Mary Washington College, Pollak interned for two summers with the Martha’s Vineyard Commission, a regional planning group. He updated the GIS data on transportation networks and roads, including the island’s many unlabeled roads.

Read or listen to this blog about Pollak’s research and connect to maps and more information.

Join us for a talk by Gina Barreca,2018 UCONN BOARD OF TRUSTEESDISTINGUISHED PROFESSOR OF ENGLISH

All great works of fiction, poetry and dramaâas well as texts forming mythologies, religions, national epics to heroic sagasâhave loneliness at the heart of their narrative. From Persephone to Peter Pan, from âFrankensteinâ to âFrozen,â the stories we pass along are saturated with unwilling isolation.âOnly around half of Americans say they have meaningful, daily face-to-face social interactions,â according to a 2017 study. A former U.S. Surgeon General argues that âWe live in the most technologically connected age in the history of civilization, yet rates of loneliness have doubled since the 1980s.â We need more than social media. We need social contact. We need community. How can we break through the loneliness barrier? Being alone when in need of companionship is more than sad; itâs an epidemic.Chronic loneliness is as bad for your health as smoking 15 cigarettes per day. We need to change our national story and, often, our personal ones as well.Even the concept of the âlone wolfâ is a myth. Wolves hunt in packs.

Reception to follow.

For more information about this event, or if you are an individual who requires special accommodation to participate, please contact the CLAS Deanâs Office at (860) 486-2713.

A liberal arts and sciences degree prepares students with the tools they need to excel across a wide range of careers. Given the number of options available to you, it can be overwhelming to narrow down career choices. Attending CLAS Career Night will provide you exposure to career opportunities for CLAS students.

This semesterâs focus will be on research-based careers. During this event you will engage with CLAS alumni, learn about various occupations, and gain insight about how to best prepare for your future career.

The McNair Scholars Program and the Office of Undergraduate Research invite you to join us for a brown bag research seminar.

Birds, Bacteria, and Bioinformatics: Why Evolutionary Biology is the Best

Sarah Hird, Ph.D., Assistant Professor, Molecular and Cell Biology

This series is open to all undergraduate and graduate students, and is designed especially for students conducting (or interested in conducting) STEM research. These seminars are opportunities to learn about research being pursued around campus, to talk with faculty about their path into research, and to ask questions about getting involved in research.

About CLAS

The College of Liberal Arts and Sciences is the academic core of learning and research at UConn. We are committed to the full spectrum of academics across the sciences, social sciences, and humanities. We give students a liberal arts and sciences education that empowers them with broad knowledge, transferable skills, and an ability to think critically about important issues across a variety of disciplines.