Comments for Arun with a Viewhttps://arunwithaview.wordpress.com
Reflections on the world from the banks of the MarneTue, 03 Mar 2015 08:46:17 +0000hourly1http://wordpress.com/Comment on What Greece needs by Arunhttps://arunwithaview.wordpress.com/2015/02/27/what-greece-needs/#comment-9592
Tue, 03 Mar 2015 08:46:17 +0000http://arunwithaview.wordpress.com/?p=21571#comment-9592Mitch: Aristos Doxiadis didn’t say anything about giving more power to “oligarchs” (which he puts in quotes). To make it clear, I don’t have strong views myself as to what should or should not happen in Greece. I merely link to articles and commentaries I find interesting. And as I’ve said numerous times, I will link to anything recommended by my friend Stathis Kalyvas, who is one of the most brilliant political scientists around and knows Greek politics and modern history better than anyone I will ever meet.

À propos, here’s a piece Stathis has posted on his social media page, by Konstantinos Costas Meghir, who has an endowed chair in the economics department at Yale.

Here is the English Version of my article in the Greek newspaper Kathimerini:

Supporting Growth and Surviving in the Eurozone
By Costas Meghir (Yale University)

Published in Kathimerini 1st March 2015

The attempt of the new government to renegotiate the terms of the bailout have weakened the financial system by causing an outflow of funds, caused uncertainty and brought Greece close to an exit form the Euro. The end result is a sharp worsening of both the fiscal position and the investment climate.

Assuming the country manages to survive this huge self-inflicted shock the question remains whether Greece can remain in the Eurozone over the long term. This depends on whether reforms are enacted to stimulate private investment allowing Greece to catch up with its partners. The fiscal crisis and the debt are not the causes of the decline. They arose primarily because of clientelist policies since the 1980s and deep-rooted problems of the Greek economy. Indeed, at the start of the crisis productivity per person-hour was at 75% of the EU average causing huge trade deficits over many years reaching 15% of GDP in 2009. Competiveness remains low, despite the adjustment of wages. While the trade deficit disappeared, ¾ of the adjustment was due to a decline in imports, rather than a recovery of exports. These are all symptoms of an economy that does not produce much that anyone wants to buy either in Greece or abroad. If this key fact does not change, Greece will not recover and the gap with the rest of Europe will grow. To avoid further trade deficits (which can no longer be funded by borrowing) there will be a continuous downward pressure on incomes, which will make survival in the Eurozone impossible.

These facts are inescapable and no amount of rhetoric and wishful thinking can change them. Therefore, the correct question to ask is how can Greece improve competitiveness and attract investments that will lead to the production of high quality tradable goods and services. Investors are mobile and place their money where they can expect the best return. This means that excessive regulations, which increase costs, as well as an uncertain policy climate, discourage investment. The appropriate policy response is to enact reforms that make Greece an attractive destination for investment, while at the same time putting in place a suitable welfare system to mitigate the consequences of less secure jobs.

The Government has proposed a reform program centered on fighting tax evasion. This is very important but it in itself will not lead to the fundamental change required. Serious reform implies addressing a number of key issues including the following:

The judiciary: investments involve writing enforceable contracts. This requires a fast and efficient judicial system with the capacity to understand complex contractual agreements. The average case takes at least 3 years to complete (τελεσιδικήσει) making contracts effectively unenforceable.

The Labor Market: it is crucial that an enterprise be able to adjust the size of its labor force at will. Otherwise it becomes very costly to produce in periods of lower demand, leading to low competitiveness, to unnecessary firm closures and to lower investment.

The Public Sector: The inefficient, unaccountable and often corrupt public sector is also an impediment to growth. Enterprises need to be able to quickly obtain the licenses they require without the fear of expropriation and the need to bribe. The public sector itself must be able to procure goods and services at competitive prices. A corrupt state sector effectively supports inefficient producers who are favored because of bribes and connections. This reduces the quality of public services, increases their cost and drives efficient producers out of business leading to an overall decline in competitiveness. Indeed according to Transparency International Greece is perceived to be the most corrupt country in the EU (together with Italy and Romania).

The Markets for Goods and Services: Trading restrictions of all sorts, such as closed professions, Sunday trading restrictions, regulated entry of pharmacies with mandated profit margins, restrictions of what products supermarkets can sell etc., all reduce economic activity and thus investment opportunities, resulting in a compression of standards of living. All these restrictions have led to a massive increase in the size of the informal economy, which produces low quality goods and services stifling growth.

Reforming all of the above and more is key to achieving growth. But we also need to turn our attention urgently to education, which has been systematically undermined. For example, based on testing High School students, Greece ranks 42 in the PISA score, below all EU countries except Bulgaria and Romania. Moreover Greece has no University in the top 300 of the world. Finally, emigration of talent has led to a massive brain drain. Unless this is rapidly rectified, Greece, which built its post war success on expansion of education, will lack the human resources to support high tech investment and will condemn itself to permanent stagnation.

]]>Comment on The Boris Nemtsov assassination by Arunhttps://arunwithaview.wordpress.com/2015/03/02/the-boris-nemtsov-assassination/#comment-9586
Mon, 02 Mar 2015 17:43:13 +0000http://arunwithaview.wordpress.com/?p=21600#comment-9586Massilian: I entirely share your need to dig deeper by reading books. On this, thank you for the reference to the Svetlana Alexievitch title. I’ll pick up a copy this week. As it happens, I had an entire post last March (here) devoted to a piece by her, which you may have seen at the time.
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Mon, 02 Mar 2015 15:11:55 +0000http://arunwithaview.wordpress.com/?p=21600#comment-9585Hi Arun, lately I felt I needed more background informations to get a deeper understanding of Russia today. I am not so happy or satisfied with instant experts analysis, on the web or even in magazines. As I often do, I turned to slow mode and I bought some books. Among them, one burned my hands and my soul : La fin de l’homme rouge, by Svetlana Alexievitch (I am afraid it might not be translated in english yet. Though it should !). Absolutely stunning book. Prix Medicis Essai 2013. It is a fantastic editing of hundreds of testimonials by all kinds of russians, young, old, city, country, old school commies, ex-military, hard boiled liberals, students, etc. about their feelings and all the stuff that really matters in their lives. That’s deep cut true thick slices of russians lives, not Polaroids or selfies, no subtle politics. It sure gives an idea about how it feels to live in Russia now. And it is no fun. I am positively surprised by the 50 000 people demonstration. This is a lot.
]]>Comment on What Greece needs by Mitch Guthmanhttps://arunwithaview.wordpress.com/2015/02/27/what-greece-needs/#comment-9555
Sat, 28 Feb 2015 20:25:34 +0000http://arunwithaview.wordpress.com/?p=21571#comment-9555I don’t think these ideas of Aristos Doxiadis represent a path to prosperity for Greece. They’re really the same tired conventional wisdom dressed up as a attack on the new government. And his main idea, that of giving more power to the oligarchs, is a truly horrible idea and will do nothing to help the vast majority of the Greek people.

I don’t deny that streamlining approval procedures and chipping away at pointless obstacles can improve the business environment. But, in and of itself, regulatory reform can’t motivate business to invest in new plants and hire more workers if there’s no prospect of selling anything because most people are totally skint. And yet, Doxiadis says nothing about the importance of austerity in creating the crisis of demand that crashed the Greek economy. Neither does he discuss the inability of previous governments to collect taxes due to massive corruption.

What’s more, the term “regulatory reform” means a lot of different things to different people. Frankly, “regulatory reform” scares the hell out of me. Louisiana, where I once lived, successfully “reformed” itself into being basically a gigantic toxic waste dump with a crappy education system and no social services after people like Doxiadis promised them that it was the ticket to prosperity.

You know, one man’s “anti business environment” looks to the rest of us a lot like things that are basically important and very good social policies. Personally, I favor laws against child labor, slave labour and prohibitions against selling dangerous or poisonous products. I like having water that is clean and not flammable, air that is breathable, and so forth. I mean, if you think about it, I’m basically describing China, the most “business friendly industrialized country on the planet.

So I think we should hear some specifics before deciding that “regulatory reform” is a panacea , particularly since he doesn’t cite a single example of a country that would have done business in Greece but for the country’s and the EU’s burdensome regulations. If the term “regulatory reform” isn’t fleshed out then it’s just a throwaway line or, worse, a ticket to become China. In any case, it’s certainly not a key to growth in a depressed economy that exports primarily into a Europe that is itself suffering from deflation and a huge crisis of demand.

I also question why Doxiadis thinks giving the oligarchs more power is a solution to anything in an economy that has been devastated by austerity and privatization. The current crop of oligarchs has looted the country and advocated for exactly the kind of large scale privatizations that would put everything of importance in the Greek economy in their control and at fire-sale prices, too. An expanded role for the oligarchs seems like a recipe for an even worse disaster given their already outsized role in running the Greek economy into the ground in the first place.

This really seems like the same tired advocacy of neoliberalism that has been responsible for the destruction of most of the Western economies and their increasing transformation into oligarchies. What’s more, the new oligarchs are hardly creating vibrant economies since their main activities seems to be bribing the political class into selling them state assets cheaply or otherwise subsiding their activities by exempting them from paying taxes. The Greek people just voted to stop the oligarchs and assorted eurotrash from looting their patrimony and steal from the public fisc, something that seems like a good idea to me.

I’m very skeptical of anybody who doesn’t think that fighting corruption, collecting taxes and getting the Greek economy moving again aren’t the top priorities that need to be addressed before anything else.

]]>Comment on 2015 Oscars by Massilianhttps://arunwithaview.wordpress.com/2015/02/21/2015-oscars/#comment-9554
Sat, 28 Feb 2015 19:15:41 +0000http://arunwithaview.wordpress.com/?p=21498#comment-9554Just for the sake of it and keeping my role, I didn’t like the wedding vignette. It felt like a Robert Altman scene shot by Jean Pierre Jeunet, I mean “à la hache”. Once you understand the rule of the game, all vignettes became highly predictable. Only the first one comes as a surprise. The engineer turned terrorist was no suspense from minute 3:25″.
We were caught in a shower while in Paris and my wife dragged me in the first movie theater and the only movie she cared to see was American sniper (I gnashed my teeth, but I followed because deep down, I am good). That was my worst Eastwood experience ever. My son told me that in the Obs – which insists to find something “de gauche” in Eastwood, in his interview good old dirty Clint took it all out on Michael Moore for opposing the NRA and Charlton Heston,and that his conclusion of the interview was : “I don’t like guns”. Sure. No doubt. Yeah. No need to say. I always knew it. Whenever I’m brave again, OK, I’ll try Boyhood.
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Tue, 24 Feb 2015 14:54:38 +0000http://arunwithaview.wordpress.com/?p=21498#comment-9501Massilian: So you’re being the contrarian, comme d’hab’ ;-) Re Wild Tales (Les Nouveaux sauvages), you’ll have to admit that the wedding vignette was priceless. Also the engineer-turned-terrorist. Ida: you’re the first person I know who gives it the thumbs down. I’m going to see it again à l’occasion. As for Boyhood, I’m sorry but this one is a must-see. C’est obligé pour n’importe quel cinéspectateur qui se respecte… I paid no attention to Marion Cotillard’s homage to Sean Penn (who, BTW, looked totally whacked even before he went up to accept his honorary César). I’m glad we at least agree on Amores Perros ;-)
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Tue, 24 Feb 2015 14:42:23 +0000http://arunwithaview.wordpress.com/?p=21498#comment-9500woman2woman: It look like we’re on the same page here. I could actually see Birdman again, to see if my initial judgment holds up. Will wait for it to come out in DVD. In the meantime, I’ll fill my Iñárritu gap, as there are couple of his films I haven’t seen (e.g. 21 Grams).
]]>Comment on 2015 Oscars by Massilianhttps://arunwithaview.wordpress.com/2015/02/21/2015-oscars/#comment-9486
Mon, 23 Feb 2015 15:08:45 +0000http://arunwithaview.wordpress.com/?p=21498#comment-9486Hi, I didn’t see too many of these ; you know “exception culturelle française” oblige, I only see a limited quota of american movies (lol). I didn’t like Ida, I didn’t like Wild tales either since it didn’t make me laugh at all, except once in the first 5 minutes. I have no intention to see Birdman. I am not a fan of Inarritu, I only like Amores perros and none of his mucho mas overrated other movies. I am not sure I can see Boyhood either. I don’t do too well with children stories. I apologize for Sean Penn’s lousy joke, it was because of Marion Cotillard’s never ending and boring hommage at the Césars that he returned home totally exhausted and wacked, he just picked the first bad joke on top of the list he was handed in the limo on the way to the Oscars.
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Mon, 23 Feb 2015 13:31:51 +0000http://arunwithaview.wordpress.com/?p=21498#comment-9482Great post! I agree with most of your comments, It’s a shame Boyhood didn’t get the deserved Best film award. I think Birdman is overrated (I like Iñárritu but I got somewhat disappointed with this one), I loved Whiplash. But anyhow, the Academy not always awards the best candidates…
]]>Comment on American Sniper by Sonny Glenn Dellhttps://arunwithaview.wordpress.com/2015/02/21/american-sniper/#comment-9478
Sun, 22 Feb 2015 20:12:50 +0000http://arunwithaview.wordpress.com/?p=21516#comment-9478Interesting. I thought France would have been the first place to laugh this out of the conversation. I wonder if it had a popular reaction in Canada and Quebec in specific.
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Wed, 18 Feb 2015 20:19:58 +0000http://arunwithaview.wordpress.com/?p=21376#comment-9411[…] bénisse la France’ (May Allah Bless France), a biopic of Abd al Malik, has been used by the Paris based academic Arun Kapil in a long analysis of the subject here: “The film could have also delved more into what the title […]
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Wed, 18 Feb 2015 17:50:49 +0000http://arunwithaview.wordpress.com/?p=21309#comment-9410I have sent an email to the address indicated on your contact page. It is unfortunate that we must be careful about disclosing such information nowadays: it is a reflection on the massive anti-Semitism that has surged in France since the eighties and which I have very much noticed. Things were not as bad when I was a kid . People were still constrained then by the memory of WWII.
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Thu, 12 Feb 2015 16:18:11 +0000http://arunwithaview.wordpress.com/?p=21361#comment-9322Hi Arun, do try to find a copy of Sissako’s “Bamako”, it is a very personal, unusual and surprising film, but I’m pretty sure we would agree on this one too…
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Thu, 12 Feb 2015 15:59:32 +0000http://arunwithaview.wordpress.com/?p=21361#comment-9321Massilian: Glad to hear we’re on the same page here. You’re right about Sabine Cessou being a little hard on the film. And good point about the pic being Sissako’s personal work of art. I never did see ‘Bamako’. Will put it on my to-watch DVD list.

As for armed Tuaregs riding around in pick-ups, yeah, that definitely puts a damper on the romance…

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Thu, 12 Feb 2015 15:53:19 +0000http://arunwithaview.wordpress.com/?p=21309#comment-9320Bernard: If you’re willing, could you send me the name of the café by email? I’d be interested in checking it out (particularly as I’m often in the République area). And there’s no security concern with me, that I assure you ;-)
]]>Comment on Timbuktu by Massilianhttps://arunwithaview.wordpress.com/2015/02/11/timbuktu/#comment-9314
Wed, 11 Feb 2015 19:57:09 +0000http://arunwithaview.wordpress.com/?p=21361#comment-9314I agree on all points. I loved the “magician” or “whitch” character that floats through the town – even if probably not realistic from Sabine Cessou’s pov. I read Sabine Cessou’s paper in Rue 89, she is tough on the movie… Under this type of political scrutiny not too many fiction, yet political, films would be fully approved, not even Elio Petri or Francesco Rosi or Bertolucci’s movies… Loopholes and inaccuracies. Timbuktu is a fiction and a personnal work of art by Sissako, not a doc, not a reportage. Neither was his excellent previous film Bamako. Maybe here and there also “incorrect”, yet very effective. I grew up with the noble romantic vision of the Tuaregs, but I am under the impression that since they replaced their camels by Toyota pickups, they lost much of their charisma…
]]>Comment on France: Teaching the Holocaust by Andrewhttps://arunwithaview.wordpress.com/2015/02/08/france-teaching-the-holocaust/#comment-9291
Tue, 10 Feb 2015 21:41:18 +0000http://arunwithaview.wordpress.com/?p=21309#comment-9291Reblogged this on Multicultural Meanderings and commented:
Film worth watching and history of French involvement in Holocaust.
]]>Comment on France: Teaching the Holocaust by bernardhttps://arunwithaview.wordpress.com/2015/02/08/france-teaching-the-holocaust/#comment-9287
Tue, 10 Feb 2015 16:04:32 +0000http://arunwithaview.wordpress.com/?p=21309#comment-9287I think it is a bit unfair to say the national context is not generally presented in France. That was true until some 45 years ago, when this bad myth elaborated by the Gaullists for very good reasons was shattered thanks to Paxton and Ophuls. 45 years ago. Furthermore, even then and before, all descendants of victims knew perfectly well the reality, even if and to a large extent because the preceding generation was silent on the details of their persecution. Everyone I know knew exactly who had fingered their ancestors. So 50 years ago, this set us very apart from the rest of the French who were living under the bad myth. But that was 45 years ago and, nowadays, everyone is well aware and learns in school that there were some heroes, not enough, some very eager assassins and a majority who preferred to close their eyes, ears and souls.

On a seemingly unrelated subject, there is a cafe not far from République (I won’t be more precise for obvious security reasons) where Yiddish was still spoken some ten years ago, and what a joy it was to listen to the banter of these little old ladies who survived the nazis. Some, hopefully, are still arguing cake recipes today.

]]>Comment on France: Teaching the Holocaust by Frank Adlerhttps://arunwithaview.wordpress.com/2015/02/08/france-teaching-the-holocaust/#comment-9263
Mon, 09 Feb 2015 14:23:20 +0000http://arunwithaview.wordpress.com/?p=21309#comment-9263Thanks for such a thoughtful post, Arun. I am especially moved by what happened at Lycée Léo Blum, given accounts of what I have read over the years on the difficulties of teaching the Holocaust in French schools with high immigrant populations. Mme Anglès is certainly a remarkable teacher who hopefully will become an important reference and guide for other teachers as well. It is particularly important to deal with the national context, in this case France, as in the past too many efforts at memorialization deal mainly with Germany and the camps “over there,” as if everything that happened to European Jews from 1938 to 1945 was simply part of a Nazi master plan unconnected to localized policies whose genesis and execution reflected localized unsavory histories as well. In Italy, this is the way the Day of Memory initially unfolded, though in time the particularities of Fascist racial policies and Italian collaboration bled into the project. The founding myth of the new postwar republic was Italiani brave gente (based on a fundamental distinction between the “good” Italian and the “bad” German. Something similar happened in France regarding Vichy and the myth of the résistance until Paxton’s book came out, as well as Ophuls film. How to reach children today is a formidable problem, as they are so far removed chronologically from these events that no longer weigh on them as it did with previous generations. Then again, unlike earlier periods, the governments today seem far more attentive to problems posed by the Shoah and how this should be reflected in educational and cultural policies. Next time I’m in France I will look into the films you mention. Thanks for calling it to my attention.
]]>Comment on France: Teaching the Holocaust by Les Heritiers An Overlooked Box Office Success Offers Hope Amid Post-Attack Tensions | FrenchNewsOnlinehttps://arunwithaview.wordpress.com/2015/02/08/france-teaching-the-holocaust/#comment-9261
Mon, 09 Feb 2015 09:51:41 +0000http://arunwithaview.wordpress.com/?p=21309#comment-9261[…] Arun Kapil’s account of the film and its socio-economic context here: “…A notable feature of Créteil’s multi-ethnic demography is its Jewish community, […]
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