Singh takes slim lead over Angus: Mainstreet NDP leadership poll

Jagmeet Singh has a slight lead over Charlie Angus in the latest Mainstreet Research NDP leadership poll — but over one-quarter of members remain undecided.

From September 7 to 9, Mainstreet polled a combination of provincial party lists (provincial NDP members are automatically federal members) and recent federal donors, reaching 2,009 people who were screened for party membership in the process.

After receiving substantial feedback on social media following the last leadership poll, this time around Mainstreet offered a Punjabi language option in addition to English and French.

With a margin or error of +/- 2 per cent, 19 times out of 20, Singh was the first choice of 27.3 per cent of members, followed by Charlie Angus (25 per cent), Niki Ashton (13 per cent) and Guy Caron (9.8 per cent).

Though a full 25 per cent were unsure of their first choice, Mainstreet President Quito Maggi said that could mean several things. Some party members could have narrowed their choices down to two candidates, for example, or decided there’s one candidate they absolutely won’t support.

“Being unsure doesn’t mean you’re completely undecided,” he said.

Singh has a commanding lead among those 18 to 35 and 35 to 49, at over 60 per cent with both demographics, while Charlie Angus has just under 42 per cent with those over 65.

Regionally, Singh enjoys big leads in B.C., Alberta and Ontario and is virtually tied with Niki Ashton in her home province of Manitoba — and with Angus in the Atlantic provinces.

Angus leads in Saskatchewan, while Guy Caron leads in Quebec with 30.9 per cent support.

Despite Singh having catapulted from fourth to first place since the last Mainstreet poll, his low second-choice support could be a problem for him in a ranked ballot vote.

Charlie Angus is the second choice of 25.3 per cent of members, followed by Ashton (23.3) and Caron (20.3).

Singh is only the second choice of 10.8 per cent of members; another 20.4 per cent are unsure.

“It’s a vulnerability, for sure,” Maggi said, adding that the race likely will come down to turnout.

Maggi sees one of two scenarios playing out.

“The first scenario is that older and longtime party members will vote in significantly higher percentage than newer members — that will favour Angus,” he said.

“The other turnout scenario benefits Singh, being that new members and especially those from the South Asian community turn out in overwhelming numbers due to the enthusiasm and youth movement generated by Singh’s candidacy.”

NDP members started receiving voting packages earlier this month. Those voting by mail have to do so by September 18, while those voting online have between September 18 and October 1 to cast their online ballots.