Senior Member of American Society for Quality (Member #: 00749775), International Member of American Production and Inventory Control Society (Member #: 1023620), and Senior Member of Institute of Industrial and Systems Engineers (Member #: 880194630).

Senior Member of American Society for Quality (Member #: 00749775), International Member of American Production and Inventory Control Society (Member #: 1023620), and Senior Member of Institute of Industrial and Systems Engineers (Member #: 880194630).

Many authors define risk as the loss probability multiplied by the amount of loss (in monetary value), so that it is often written as: Risk = p (loss) x value (loss).

The classic definition of risk is the occurrent probability of an undesirable event multiplied by the consequences (losses) of that event.

Furthermore, the concept of risk score calculation is a process in which a risky activity will determine the risk score. A risk score indicates the level of risk associated with a permission to access resources or consideration to use resources (time, money, energy, etc.). This risk score is then compared to the threshold score set in a policy or an objective consideration. Decision is made on the basis of comparisons between risk score against this threshold, where if the risk score is within the tolerable limits, then the decision to use these resources is deemed viable based on the consideration of calculated risks.

The Value of Loss, if put into the TARGET value measured in percentage of TARGET achievement (ideal = 100%), then would be applied as: Percentage of Loss Value = 100% – Achievement of TARGET Value. This means: SUCCESS Value = Percentage of TARGET Achievement (Ideal is 100%, if more than 100%, then the extra is considered bonus).

Once points 1 and 2 above have been accepted, the SUCCESS Score can be calculated or estimated before an action: SUCCESS Score = Percentage of SUCCESS x Percentage of SUCCESSFUL TARGET Achievement, so that SUCCESS Score will move from 1% to 100%.

Note: 0% is eliminated for the purpose of the application of SUCCESS Score concept and is given to the persons who are AFRAID to FAIL, whom in fact will NOT make any decision; thus deserve to receive SUCCESS Score = 0%.

VG has created a SUCCESS Score mapping diagram by specifying the percentage of SUCCESSFUL TARGET achievement on the vertical axis and Probability of Achieving SUCCESS on the horizontal axis as shown in the attached Chart 1 above.

The process of converting this risk score into SUCCESS score within the critical thinking framework has included the highest level (evaluation), which develops opinions, judgments, and decisions to use in a certain new phenomenon (see Chart 2. Critical Thinking Skills below).

Furthermore, through a policy of personal, team, management, and so on, we can set the tolerance threshold at the level of the SUCCESS score of how much we will make risky decision because we will sacrifice some resources (time, money, energy, etc.) when carrying out that risky activity. Personally, VG will use 80% as the feasible number to implement risky decision.

The problem is what if the SUCCESS score has not reached 80% for the risky decision under consideration?

In the case the SUCCESS Score has not reached 80%, then we HAVE to intervene to: (1) Increase Probability of SUCCESS, and (2) Increase Percentage of SUCCESSFUL Target Achievement, which will be discussed below.

A. Strategy to Increase Probability of SUCCESS

VG always CONSISTENTLY uses PDCA application for SUCCESS in order to increase the Probability of SUCCESS. The use of PDCA for SUCCESS can be found in Chart 3 of PDCA Management Framework for SUCCESS below that is carried out in the following steps:

Define the Context in that PDCA for SUCCESS. The Context can be school, college, application in a particular field, such as wanting to become a professional in the field of accounting, property, quality, supply chain management, etc. The Context can also be applied to opening new business, developing business, switching profession from employee to investor, etc. Context can also be anything like VG’s decision to send his sons abroad at his own expense. Nevertheless, all risky decisions can be incorporated into the context under consideration.

Start with a Plan that meets the criteria of: (a) having goals or objectives from the context formulated using the principles of SMARTERS (Specific, Measurable, Achievable through actionable, Result-oriented, Timely, Empowerment and Evaluation, Review and Recognition, Spirituality) b) summarizing all key SUCCESS Factors (KSFs) associated with the context under consideration, and (c) standardizing all key SUCCESS factors (KSFs) into action plan in checklists format or 5W2H format (What, Why, Where, When, Who, How, How much).

Implement (Do) the action plan containing all the key SUCCESS factors (KSFs), whether in the form of a checklist or 5W2H (What, Why, Where, When, Who, How, How much).

Between the defined SUCCESS TARGET using the SMARTERS approach in point 1 above with the actual results obtained through the action plan’s implementation of the key SUCCESS factors using checklist or 5W2H (What, Why, Where, When, Who, How, How much).

Act (Act) using the following two considerations: (a) if the achievement of SUCCESS TARGET does not reach 100%, then do problem solving by double-checking points 1, 2 and 3 above, and (2) if TARGET SUCCESS achievement has reached 100% or more, then make continuous improvement using either small improvement (Kaizen) or breakthrough improvement (Innovation) towards points 1, 2, 3, and 4 above.

If the PDCA for SUCCESS (points 1 – 5) above is done repeatedly, then we will get the real learning in real life (learning for life), there will be Continual Improvement MINDSET and Continual Improvement ATTITUDE; they will form Professional Habits, which will eventually become Professional Character.

B. Strategy to Increase SUCCESS Target Achievement

SUCCESS TARGET Achievement can be improved using PDCA for SUCCESS; moreover, we can use determination of Multi Objectives or Multi Goals approach. FAILED people often work with only single objective/goal.

Chart 4 and Chart 5 show the working pattern of FAILED people versus the working pattern of SUCCESSFUL people. It appears that the FAILED people’s working pattern is like the lines in a notebook, by only setting a single objective in every start of activity. While the SUCCESSFUL people set many goals (multi objectives) when starting a risky activity.

Obviously, the PRODUCTIVITY (PRODUCTIVITY = OUTPUT / INPUT) level of SUCCESSFUL people who set the multi objectives/goals is much higher than the FAILED people who only set a single objective/goal.

Many people often say the following ancient proverbs; BUT only a few people have practiced them, much less to have made those old proverbs to become HABITS as professionals with excellent characters and having EC(Effectiveness of Competence) value above 100%.

The purpose of establishing “multi objectives” is related to the PRODUCTIVITY improvement everytime during the journey to SUCCESS! In addition, if we set “multi objectives”, we will get many results (outputs), which will also increase the achievement of SUCCESS TARGET when combined properly with PDCA for SUCCESS.

I personally, when doing any risky activity, MUST have multiple goals at once (multi objectives).

For example if I was going to write a PRAKTIS (PRAKtek TIdak Sulit) // PRACTICAL (PRACTICE is not Difficult) book, then the book writing process MUST have the following objectives (multi objectives):

Objective 2 = O2: Obtaining “Credit Point” in order to retain VG’s own professional titles from APICS-the American Production and Inventory Control Society (every 5 years must be renewed) and ASQ-the American Society for Quality (every three years must be renewed).

Objective 3 = O3: Acquiring new knowledge in the process of book writing to increase the value of EC (Effectiveness of Competence).

Note: VG NEVER writes a book with the topic that he has already known or mastered, because if this was done, then he would NOT gain new knowledge from the learning process through the writing of that book.

Objective 4 = O4: Obtaining ACTIVE INCOME through becoming a Consultant and/or Master Coach at companies in the businesses and industries.

Note: because the target readers are Top Management and/or Owners, VG DOES NOT WANT to write complicated and theoretical books because such thing will NOT meet this Objective No. 4, which is to have the opportunity to become a Consultant and/or Master Coach.

Books that will be read by Top Management and/or Owners of companies in the businesses and industries contain topics related to: how to create profitability for businesses and industries; how to improve quality in order to satisfy customers; how to improve businesses and industries’ processes to improve productivity , quality, cost efficiency; and how to improve the human resources excellence for companies. In essence, the bestsellers that will be read by Top Management and/or Owners of companies are books related to the 5P model: Profitability, Products (Goods & Services) Excellence, Processes Excellence, People Excellence, and Performance Excellence (Continual Performance Improvement).

Objective 5 = O5: Promoting VG’s COMPETENCIES to the public as an effort to achieve Objective 1 = O1, which is to realize the Vision of UANG (Usaha Agar Nama Gemilang) // MONEY (Effort to Make Own Name Excellently Known). Book writing is a FREE medium to publicize own COMPETENCIES to the public (every end pages of VG’s book always include professional services and curriculum vitae as a professional in the businesses and industries).

Objective 6 = O6: Obtaining PASSIVE INCOME in the form of royalties from the sales of those written books.
Notice that many people, when writing books, ONLY pursue Objective No. 6 (O6) and sometimes that is their sole purpose; whereas VG places such objective as only one goal so that even though Objective No. 6 (O6) may FAIL or the result is not as expected, then there are still five other goals (O1 to O5) that will SURELY be SUCCESSFUL!

It is clear that thinking and applying the concept of Multi Objectives will increase Productivity (Productivity = Output / Input), so that if many people would only get “one/single” SUCCESS, then we will get “many/multiple” SUCCESSES altogether from this very effective and efficient working system (Input – Processes – Outputs).

The above descriptions show that understanding of the SUCCESS Score will motivate us to apply the SUCCESS strategy, so that there will be positive reinforcement within ourselves. The courageous phrase of Dare to FAIL does not just have its mental courage; BUT also have its rational reason based on the calculation of SUCCESS Score that must meet the threshold of a risky decision, such as having a SUCCESS Score above 80% before a new risky activity would be done.

Understanding SUCCESS Score will be perfect if we are able to integrate intellectual intelligence, emotional intelligence, and spiritual intelligence as an integrated concept as shown in Chart 6 below.