Category Archives: Emerging markets

I wrote about Bitcoin four years ago. At that time it was only a digital currency that no one knew something about. Now it is on the way to be mainstream. The price have skyrocketed thanks to a massive campaign.

Bitcoin was registered in August 18, 2008. It follows the ideas set out in a white paper by the mysterious Satoshi Nakamoto. The first bubble started in October 3rd, 2010. The BTC price was only $0,06. Then the price crashed down to $0,01, and a massive buying frenzy started. Now, the price is just below $6,000.

Some people love it, and some people dont. One of those who dont like bitcoin is JPMorgan Chase & Co CEO Jamie Dimon. He said he would fire any employee trading bitcoin for being “stupid.”

Saudi billionaire Prince Alwaleed do agree. They are both joining the long line of skeptics saying bitcoin is a bubble, and Prince Alwaleed said “I just dont belive in this bitcoin thing. I think its just going to implode one day. I think this is Enron in the making,” Alwaleed told CNBC.

He also said “It just doesnt make sence. This thing is not regulated, its just not under control, it`s not under the supervision” of any central bank, he said.

My computers are full of bitcoin ads. It says; “millions are buying bitcoin.” Some pro`s in the mainstream media are telling people to invest in bitcoin and specially hedge funds and other traders in Norway.

The Swedish government has successfully auctioned off some bitcoin a few days ago, collecting more than the prevailing market rate in the sale. The 0,6 BTC, along with an equal amount of bitcoin cash, which was not previously disclosed, were sold by the Kronofogden during a week-long auction for a total of 43,000 kroner.

Kronofogden is not the first government agency to sell seized bitcoin. A few weeks ago, the U.S department of Justice formally took possession of $48 million it accrued through the sale of 144,336 bitcoins since the closure of the Silk Road dark market.

China`s big government and banks have banned Bitcoin, and its growing popularity in China may have caused the government to begin to perceive it as a threat to local currency, especially as Chinese investors bought up bitcoin a bet against the yuan last year.

China is home to vast and lucrative cryptocurrency mining operations for both Bitcoin, Ethereum, and other cryptocoins. Three Chinese exchanges like Bitfinex, OkCoin and BTCC, made up over 45 percent of the global market share over the last two months.

Co-founder and CEO of BTCC, Bobby Lee said it must be fake news because the exchange was operating normally.

Many supporters belive that Bitcoin is the future. Those who endorse it are of the view that it facilitates a much faster, no-fee payment system for transactions across the globe. It is not backed by any government or central bank.

Bitcoin can be exchanged for traditional currencies; in fact, its exchange rate against the dollar attracts potential investors and traders in currency plays. Another reason for its popularity is that they can act as an alternative to national fiat money and traditional commodities like gold.

All this is a huge competition to banks and central banks, and can make instability.

To make it short; the market crashed in 1929 and Ben Bernanke have studied it for a long time. When the market crashed in 2008, Ben Bernanke started to stimulate the economy with its QE program. He «printed» money. In other words; he saved the world.

Crypto currencies are not regulated and if crypto currencies is the future, we can already now predict how it can end if the market is crashing……

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

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Theresa May is negotiating with the European Union and investors are concerned about a hard landing on these Brexit deals. It`s difficult to know exactly the outcome of the Brexit deal but what we do know is that the British economy grew 1,7% YoY in the second quarter of 2017.

Not so much compared to Chinas 6,9% growth, which is the best G20 country followed by India at 5,7%. Britains economy fell from 2,0% to 1,7% and that is the opposite direction of India`s growth. Can India grow by a greater margin than China this year?

According to IMF, Indias economy will grow by a greater margin than China in 2017. Not only that. Indias innovation growth rate is expected to rise significantly over the next 15 years, placing it ahead of Russia and close to surpassing China, according to a new report.

China is the leading nation in terms of innovation among BRICS countries, but India`s Prime Minister Narendra Modi must be doing something right. India is set to see a surge in innovation and could surpass China by the end of the next decade.

According to Chinas Science Technology Exchange Center, Indias innovation growth rate is expected to rise significantly over the next 15 years, placing it ahead of Russia.

India`s economy is expected to grow by 7,2% in 2017, according to IMF. A new study highlights the growth that can be expected in intellectual advances, such as science and technology, which are often perceived as indicators of future growth.

It`s BRICS Innovation Competitiveness Report 2017 predicted that the innovation competitiveness of India would see a significant rise with its growth rate probably surpassing China between 2025 – 2030.

What is India`s Prime Minister Narendra Modi actually doing right? He has been taking notable steps forward in innovation, supported by a reform agenda.

Government schemes such as Digital India, which expands the countrys online infrastructure, and StartUp India, which promotes financial backing for entrepreneurs, have been unveiled to boost the countrys innovation and technology sectors.

India`s growing information technology and scientific expertise have also helped turn it into an increasingly dominant outsourcing hub.

So far, China is still the leader in terms of innovation competitiveness among BRICS nations, followed by Russia, South Africa, Brazil and India.

Europe is struggling to follow. Ireland is the best country with its 6,10% growth, followed by Romania with 5,9% growth and Estonia with 5,7% growth YoY.

At the bottom in Europe we find Norway with only 0,20% growth, Macedonia by its 0% and at the very bottom Liechtenstein with negative -1,9% growth.

Monaco, Liechtenstein and Luxemburg are the richest countries in the world measured by GDP per capita.

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

Brazil has been struggling for a while now. First of all with Dilma Rousseff and her corruption scandal involving the state-controlled oil company Petrobras. All this on top af a terrible recession. Since the Workers’ Party came to power in 2003, there has been a series of corruption scandals in Brazil.

Operation Car Wash has uncovered a widening corruption scandal with dozens of political accused of paying or receiving kickbacks. Former President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva has been named in connection with the investigation. Let`s take a look at some positive things in Brazil right now.

Brazil had an all-time high trade surplus in March this year. Brazil recorded a USD 7,145 million trade surplus, which is higher than a USD 4,435 million surpluses in 2016. Exports jumped 25,6 percent YoY and imports rose at a slower 11,9 percent.

Inflation in Brazil is also going the right direction. It rose by 4,76 percent in the year to February 2017, which is down from an increase of 5,35 percent in previous month. It`s also lower than a year ago at 9,39 percent.

Brazil is the largest country in both South America and Latin America. Its the worlds fifth largest country by both area and population of 200,4 million citizens. Unfortunately, the unemployment rate is going the wrong direction.

It reached an all-time high of 13,2 percent in the quarter ended February this year. Brazil has been the largest producer of coffee for the last 150 years. Can they fix the problems? Their economy has not been growing since 2014.

The Brazilians economy shrank 2,5 percent YoY in the fourth quarter of 2016. GDP has been negative for eleven straight quarters and they face a sharp drop in both household consumption and fixed investment.

You can clearly see how bad economy are going hand in hand with crime and frustration. Everybody blame each other for everything and politicians are always a target.

A jump in their auto sales is music in samba ears.

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

This week is a week for a special focus on the banks around the world. Today, I will take a closer look at the banks in Japan.

Japans interest rate peaked in the 70s and 80`s at about 9%, and it went down to 6% in 1991. Then it started to fall down with the stock market. As you may know, Japan has printed tons of money and a great recovery has never happened.

Japan are in a very special situation. The Bank of Japan left the interest rate unchanged at -0,1% at its December 2016 meeting, as widely expected. In addition; policy makers also decided to maintain its 10-years government bond yield target around 0% and viewed a moderate recovery trend in the economy had continued while exports has picked up.

With regard to the amount of JGB`s to be purchased, the Bank will conduct buying at more or less the current pace. An annual pace of increase of about 80 trillion yen.

The biggest banks in Japan are up about 50% since the election.

On top of all this, Japan will continue with its craziness and monetize about $670 billion`s worth of bonds per year.Wow!

Japan`s economy has continued its moderate recovery trend, and overseas economics have continued to grow at moderate pace, although emerging economies remain sluggish in part. In this situation exports have picked up.

Prime Minister Shinzo Abe said the sales for American cars are poor, pushing back after President Donald Trump described the trade imbalance on vehicles as «unfair». Japan exported 1,6 million cars in 2015. Sales of American cars in Japan are almost non-existent, while only 19 000 cars were sold in Japan in 2015, trade minister Hiroshige Seko said.

The reason for the bad sale is competition and not tariff.

Despite all the noise from the U.S and Trump`s fiscal and trade policies, and a number of unclear factors like Brexit, trade deals and the global economic situation, Japan will see its economy grow in 2017 on the back of the weak yen and government steps to stimulate sluggish consumption, economists have said.

They predict that 2017 will be a positive year for Japan, and the government looks to craft more measures to help boost consumption.

A weaker yen against the dollar will also help boost Japanese exporters and their revenue.

Shinzo Abe will meet Donald Trump in Washington 10 February this year.

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

Chinas GDP is still high, but its falling and it can go below 4%. The Chinese economy grew an annual 6,8 percent in the fourth quarter of 2015 which is the weakest since first quarter of 2009. For the full year of 2015, GDP expanded by 6,9 percent which is the weakest growth in 25 years.

China`s GDP annual growth rate came in at 3,80 percent in the fourth quarter of 1990, and peaked at an all-time high of 15,40 percent in the first quarter of 1993. GDP annual growth rate in China averaged 9,88 percent from 1989 until 2015.

Consumer prices in China rose 2,3 percent YoY in February of 2016 which is up from 1,8 percent in January. This is the highest inflation rate since July 2014. Inflation rate in China reached a record low of -2,20 percent in April of 1999, and an all-time high of 28,40 percent in February of 1989. Inflation rate in China averaged 5,51 percent from 1986 until 2016.

The most important components of the CPI basket in China, are Food with a 31,8 percent of total weight and Residence at 17,2 percent. Consumer prices rose 2,3 percent in February this year and that is the highest inflation rate since July 2014, as politically sensitive food prices surged 7,3 percent over the Lunar New Year holiday and cold weather.

Africa is another growth story. A quick look at the chart tell us a new fx bull market is imminent. Rand looks great vs pound.

South Sudan is the youngest nation in the world and they are officially recognised as a country in July 2011. Despite taking about 75 percent of old Sudan`s oil reserves, it is one of the poorest regions in Africa and government revenues are still dependent of foreign aid.

They had massive growth in 2014. South Sudan expanded 15,90 percent in 2014 which is an all-time high, but it`s a young nation and keep in mind that they reached a record low of -46,10 percent in 2012.

Kenya has been experiencing steady growth for some years now. The World Bank predicted a growth rate of 6,6 percent in 2016 and 7 percent next year. How are they doing it? The growth comes from massive investments in infrastructure and jobs, and they are taking steps to improve the business climate, and a boost in exports.

This can be risky.

The threat of terrorist attacks from Al-Shabaab cause security concerns. Kenyas tourism industry is one of the countrys key sectors and Al-Shabaab has a negative impact on that industry. Their manufacturing sector has also been stagnant for some years. In addition, there is a lack of competition and minimal production.

Kenya is still highly dependent on agriculture and the sector made a significant 26 percent of the countrys GDP annually, and another 25 percent indirectly. The sector accounts for 65 percent of Kenyas total export.

Manufacturing is also important for Kenya`s growth. Investment opportunities include manufacturing of fertilizer, agro-processing, machine tools and machinery, garments, and engineering products for both domestic and export markets.

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.