Nate Silver Explains Why We Shouldn't Be So Pessimistic About The US At The World Cup

The popular consensus around the United States men's national
team heading into the 2014 World Cup is twofold: 1) this is one
of the best teams we've ever sent to a World Cup, and 2) there's
no way we get out of the group.

The reason for the pessimism is simple: The group is
incredibly difficult. Ghana has eliminated the U.S. from
two-straight World Cups, Portugal has the best player in the
world, and Germany is one of the favorites to win the entire
tournament.

Even ESPN's Alexi Lalas thinks the U.S. is going to get
eliminated before the knockout stage.

No one has any idea if Ghana
is any good: "They’re hard to peg because they don’t play
competitive matches against the rest of the world all that
often, but SPI does not have them on the rise this
year."

Germany might leak a goal:
"But as an offense-minded squad, the team might be ever so
slightly more prone toward letting in a soft goal and drawing
(although probably not losing) a game that
it shouldn’t."

The perceived difficulty of Group G is the why so many people are
down on the U.S.'s chance in Brazil.

Silver isn't saying Group G is easy, but he's saying the U.S.
isn't as doomed as people think.

It's still going to be a monumental task for the USMNT. Even
Silver's relatively optimistic outlook for the U.S. gives them a
64% chance of losing in the first round.

The realistic
best-case scenario is beating Ghana, tying Portugal, and
going through on goal difference no matter what happens against
Germany. For a glass-half-full hypothetical, that's not exactly
bullish.