INDICATIVE FIGURES suggest that the Samajwadi Party (SP) and the ruling Bahujan Samajwadi Party (BSP) are the frontrunners to get the maximum seats, closely followed by the BJP and the Congress, as per the state-wide poll conducted by merinews. The BSP is projected to get between 106-120 seats; SP: 142 and 150; BJP: 60-70; Congress: 68-82 - with Others getting between 17-35 seats in the UP elections. Election results for the 403-seat UP state assembly will be announced on March 6.

In
Focus

The Merinews- Citizen Journalists survey conducted by merinews.com was aimed at understanding the changing political trends in UP and its cause and effect on the assembly election results 2012. Citizen Journalists spread across various cities in UP were asked to take up a telephonic post-election survey of voters.

Sixty per cent of those polled said that it will be a hung parliament in UP, and the remaining 40% said that either the BSP or the SP might form the next government. With SP and BSP as the frontrunners, according to voters, none of the contesting parties will have a majority in the assembly election results. In fact, an overwhelming 80 per cent said that there is a major shift in the mindset of the people due to development and anti-incumbency factors against the current government.

Voter opinion in the Merinews-Citizen Journalists survey also indicated lack of consensus for a single leader to serve as the next UP Chief Minister. 40% of voters said all contenders are the same – with none of them being interested in the development of the state – and it didn’t matter to them who got elected as the next Chief Minister.

However, 40% of voters want rising SP leader Akhilesh Yadav to be the next Chief Minister of UP because they find him very promising and best suited for the role. The remaining 20% of the voters want Mayawati to continue as the Chief Minister.

Mayawati’s loss will be Akhilesh Yadav’s gain as voters pointed to high chances of SP forming the government with support from other independent parties – with the reason being Akhilesh Yadav’s impact on the youth who will be playing a decisive role this time in the elections.

Those polled had a strong opinion about the effect of Rahul Gandhi’s sustained campaigning in UP. The majority of voters, 60%, said that Gandhi’s campaigning in UP was nothing more than a well- planned media gimmick, and that people are intelligent enough to understand the same. According to voters his campaigning instead of doing some good, might backfire for the Congress in the elections. Rest of the voters felt that Gandhi’s campaigning has been very promising, and it will definitely benefit the Congress in winning a few extra seats.

With the post-poll survey indicating that the BSP will not have a majority in the current assembly elections, unlike 2007, the major factors, according to voters, that could decide the fate of BSP are:

• Anti-Incumbency

• Land Scams

• Irrational decisions taken by Mayawati. She spent common man’s money on statues and samadhis instead of infrastructure and development.

As the merinews voter poll indicates a hung parliament as the most probable outcome, whoever next forms the government in the state will have to put together a post-election alliance to form a coalition government in Lucknow.