Frequently asked questions about South Africa’s drought

By Africa Check

07:36 | 3 February 2016 (GMT)

Is South Africa currently experiencing the worst drought in 23, 30 or 34 years? What caused it? And how will we know when it’s officially over? Lebohang Mojapelo answers some of the most frequently asked questions about South Africa’s drought.

FAQ1: When does low rainfall become a drought?

However, climate information manager for the weather service Elsa de Jager told Africa Check that if a specific area in South Africa receives less than 75% of its normal rainfall, they consider that area to be experiencing a meteorological drought.

De Jager added that “it can be safely assumed that a shortfall of 20% from normal rainfall will cause crop and water shortfalls in many regions accompanied by social and economic hardship”.

Although South Africa’s average rainfall has been low, only certain areas of the country are experiencing a meteorological drought, media liaison for South Africa’s department of water and sanitation, Sputnik Ratau told Africa Check. This is because South Africa has “different hydrological zones, meaning that whereas some parts may be experiencing severe drought, others may not”.

FAQ2: What caused the drought?

Residents of Nongoma in KwaZulu-Natal prepare to collect water from a free water point sponsored by concerned citizens in November 2015. Photo: AFP /MUJAHID SAFODIEN

While drought is common to Southern Africa, associate professor in the department of oceanography at the University of Cape Town Dr Mathieu Rouault explained that the two main causes of the current drought are El Niño and climate change.

El Niño is a rise in oceanic temperatures in the South Pacific that affects weather patterns across the globe and results in a reduction in rainfall in Southern Africa. Rouault and a colleague published a scientific study that showed that “8 out of 10 of the worst droughts in the past 100 years happened during El Niño”.

FAQ3: Has South Africa really received the least rainfall in a century last year?

According to the South African Weather Service, South Africa received the lowest rainfall between January and December 2015 since the recording of rainfall began in 1904.

Since 1904, rainfall in all nine provinces has averaged 608 mm per year, while in 2015 South Africa received only an average of 403 mm (66% of the annual average). Previously, the lowest rainfall received in a year was in 1945 when South Africa received 437 mm (72%).

Because drought is experienced as a continuous period of low rainfall, it is important to measure it accordingly. De Jager said that “although the annual total rainfall for South Africa for the months of January to December 2015 was the lowest since 1904, the four-year period of 1930 to 1933 might still be the driest continuous period experienced in South Africa”. The average rainfall for those years was 519 mm annually (85%).

It’s important to keep in mind that these averages were calculated for South Africa as a whole. Some areas could have been very dry while others were not.

For example, the Eastern Cape has had above average rainfall between 2010 and 2015, De Jager said, while the Free State has had below average rainfall since 2012 and has been declared a disaster area.

(Note: Since 1921, the weather service has also been measuring rainfall according to 94 rainfall districts throughout the country. When the average for the rainfall districts is calculated, South Africa received only 330 mm of rain in 2015. The average since 1921 is 500 mm.)

FAQ4: So is drought simply defined by a lack of rainfall?

Meteorological drought in itself is not a disaster, the authors of Drought and Water Crises: Science Technology and Management Issues, Donald Wilhite and Margie Buchanan-Smith, wrote: “Whether it becomes a disaster depends on its impact on local people and the environment. Therefore to understand drought we have to understand it as both a natural and social phenomenon.”

Agricultural drought is defined by a lack of soil water to support the growth of crops, caused by too little rainfall, whether it meets the requirement of a meteorological drought or not.

Hydrological drought is caused by the low availability of surface water, such as low water levels in dams, rivers, lakes and other reservoirs. This can be caused by a meteorological drought or high water use, for instance.

Socioeconomic drought occurs when human activity is affected by any type of drought. This may be in the form of lack of water supply, grazing land or food. Professor of agrometeorology at the University of KwaZulu-Natal, Michael Savage, told Africa Check that “to determine these types of drought requires an intensive study using data for the whole of South Africa. I do not think anyone has undertaken such a study yet”.

FAQ5: How has the drought affected agriculture?

The head of the Agricultural Business Chamber, John Purchase, told Africa Check that currently effects on agriculture can be seen in the Free State, KwaZulu-Natal and the North West “as summer crops, especially maize, could not be planted in many areas, or plantings were severely damaged by the drought and heat”.

Soya, sorghum, groundnuts and sunflower crops have also been affected, which has negatively impacted South Africa’s food security. Purchase told Africa Check that while South Africa usually exports maize “it is clear that South Africa will have to import roughly 5 to 6 million tons of maize (half white and half yellow) to meet its internal demand”.

Purchase continued to say that “livestock farmers also have no or little grazing and fodder for their livestock while drinking water for animals is a problem in many areas in these provinces”.This will all result in an increase in food prices in South Africa over the next few months, Purchase predicted.

FAQ6: Is South Africa’s water supply threatened?

The director of water resource planning systems in the department of water and sanitation, Dr Benson Mwaka, told Africa Check that the drought has affected the whole country “resulting in water shortages with associated socio-economic sufferings – though not to the same degree”.

The KwaZulu-Natal region has been hit the hardest in this regard while the Eastern Cape has been the least affected, he said. The department’s media liaison Ratau added that it was mainly areas with little or no water resource storage facilities and that was affected most by the drought that experienced water shortages. Mwaka also told Africa Check that the country’s water storage is under pressure. South Africa’s dams were 55.4% full on 11 January 2016, although it is still some way off from the 35-year low point of 34% reached in November 1983.

FAQ7: Is this the worst drought SA has ever had?

Professor at the Wits Global Change and Sustainability Research Institute, Bob Scholes, explained to Africa Check that the current drought is “one of the biggest drought events in living memory”. However, he said the extent of the severity of the drought is difficult to measure because it is not over yet.Similarly, Savage said that more research needs to be done to definitively compare the severity of this drought with previous ones. It is therefore not possible to say yet whether this is the worst drought in 23, 30 or 34 years.

FAQ8: How will we know when the drought is over?

It is usually only after the fact that one can determine what kind of drought it was and when it has ended, Scholes told Africa Check. He said that data on rainfall and the effects of a drought usually takes a lot of time to be collected and analysed. Therefore knowing when a drought ended occurs some time after it was broken.

“The drought is not over yet, guys,” Scholes said.

Have you seen a claim about South Africa’s drought that needs checking? Leave a comment below or tweet us: @AfricaCheck.

I would like to fully agree with the authors and conquer with all the inputs and the content of the report .

Its a well researched and informed discussion that our leaders in high authorities who make decisions must understand . Sometimes we waste resources in responding to drought without following proper mitigation strategies and undermine/ignore Early Warnings Systems that were established and charged with certain responsibilities and undermine recommendations by specialised institutions to deal with a specific risk factor in an integrated approach.

There is no need to commission research about drought and waste public funds. There is a need for raising awareness about the challenges of climate change and understanding weather patterns.

Lastly we need to come up with mitigating strategies informed by previous recommendations and do a holistic risk assessment because drought cuts across sectors . It is not a solely responsibility of one sector. We can not stop nature in its own cause without assessment in line with recommendations regarding Weather and Climate change.

Just making a quick glance on the meteorological structure of the 2015/16 El Nino drought, I would agree with the authors in the fact that the changes of surface temperatures over the Southern Pacific ocean can greatly influence the distribution of rainfall across the globe particularly over southern Africa region. This was reflected during the 2015/16 summer season when the decrease of temperatures over the western parts of the Pacific ocean led to the decrease of temperatures over the western parts of Indian ocean which was unfavorable condition for the development of Tropical cyclones.

The dominance of High pressure system over the interior also led to dry conditions over South Africa which was also exaggerated by the high numbers of the heatwaves during 2015/16 summer season which i think it can be associated with climate change.

if you check out the charts in the link below you will see that there has been no real change in the country’s rainfall. Infact there has been more rain on average and less warm on average during the latest charts 1991 – 2015.

i wonder weather the current electricity blackouts and the drought are linked in someway? miss management perhaps?

500mm is what is needed for a standard high yeild maize crop (12-14mT/H) and that has to come in a timely manner (western Iowa USA). 330mm may sustain Maize for a silage crop (mowed and chopped or baled 35% moisture; tonnage as 14% moisture) of 1/10 that magnitude. The only crops that can yield as such low water inputs are certain varieties of wheat and other grass type cereal crop and sorghum with low yields in the tonnage range of 1.5 to 2 mT/H. In these conditions, only the big farmers will survive.. Land values will crash also. New farmers will fail as they do not have the knowledge, amount of land or equipment to make a profit at such low margins that are influenced by imports from normally producing countries (USA).
Those that call for ‘Killing the Farmer’ are essentially domestic terrorist that will take S.A. and the surrounding countries into genocide by murder, starvation and civil war.

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