After backing the NFL preseason trends and scenarios to a strong record in Week 1, we were able to get last week's situations to follow suit. Houston got the money in a game that was theirs nearly the entire way, all that love and support for KC in the market was squashed late in their loss to the Steelers, and for those that jumped on the Cowboys late in the week when the closed at -4 and -4.5, there could have technically been another loss in there for the Cowboys as well. But news on the Rams resting basically everyone was out early in the week that nearly all the Dallas numbers got their in the end.

With Week 3 of the preseason being the last week we really see the starters even consider playing, we are looking to end the preseason on a high note as Week 4 is just a debacle of a week to try and stay atop on who's playing and just how far the depth charts are getting extended. So while news continues to pour in over the week about the gameplans in terms of starters minutes for each team, it's back to the a couple of specific scenarios that have been beneficial to back or fade like we've discussed the past two weeks.

And while winless teams will get plenty of attention this week in terms of ATS backing – they always do in Week 3 of the preseason – it's these groups of teams that deserve more of a keen eye for Week 3.

The blanket statement above obviously doesn't cover all six of the organizations that made it to January football a year ago, but outside of backing the drama-filled Cowboys this week, the other five organizations have decent enough history to warrant significant consideration for their third game of the preseason.

As of the opening numbers currently out there, the Rams don't have one yet given how close to the vest they've dealt with their starters these past few weeks, the other contests have spreads shaping out like this:

Philly is catching +4 at home against a Ravens team who has quickly become everyone's favorite preseason darling , Dallas is laying -1.5 at home in an in-state battle with Houston, Chicago's catching three on the road in Indy against a Colts team with serious QB questions to address now, the Saints are laying a point on the road against a Jets team that's already come around on sitting starters the rest of this August, and the Seahawks are catching points on the road against a winless Chargers team.

If you were to assume that starters get close to an entire half to suit up and play this week, those are some pretty nice looking spots and situations for all six of last year's NFC playoffs representatives. Now, we all know that the starters for some of these teams will still barely see the field this week, so keep that in mind as you comb through press conferences and interviews trying to discover info about playing time, but know that recent history does favor that majority of this group to cash tickets this weekend.

Of the six games overall, the two that stand out to me at the moment would be the Eagles catching a FG at home, as well as the Saints out in New York. I say that because, Philly may not let Carson Wentz hit the field and are a little thin at QB in the preseason because of it, but this blind love for backing Harbaugh and the Ravens in preseason has reached a sell point in today's betting market in my opinion. With the Eagles likely sticking with a similar QB rotation to what we saw last week (Thorson gets the bulk of the game), this line on the Ravens is only likely to increase, an then it becomes all about picking off the top in terms of getting Philadelphia at the best number.

Backing the Saints against the Jets is another spot I'm looking deeper into, because....

Who's Not

AFC East teams in third preseason game
Buffalo (1-6 ATS last seven)
New England (3-8 ATS last 11)
New York Jets (1-2 ATS last three)
Miami (1-7 ATS last eight)

New Orleans is visiting the Jets, and they do have the 'best' record of their AFC East rivals during dress rehearsal week the past few years, but HC Adam Gase has already come out and blamed himself for losing LB Avery Williamson to a torn ACL this year on his decision to leave him out longer then planned for in last week's game, and New York is probably going to go into a shell these final two weeks to make sure everyone else stays healthy.

Even with the Saints cautious approach with some of their starters, you combine the recent history of both franchises during this week of preseason action with the likely scenario of the Jets going extra cautious, I'd get on New Orleans sooner rather then later this week.

It's those other AFC East teams that I'm interested in fading as well, as New England is about a four-point home favorite vs Carolina, the Dolphins are -2.5 at home against Jacksonville, and Buffalo's catching about a point on the road in Detroit.

Of the three, Miami may be the team that causes most hesitation as they've still got a legit #1 QB battle going on there between Rosen and Fitzpatrick. Neither guy was exceptionally great last week, and although chances are they end up giving Fitzpatrick the starting job at least out of the gate, that top spot is still up for grabs, and with both guys going to get significant time (in all likelihood) in Week 3 to prove they deserve that top spot, fading the Dolphins this week does come with some concerns.

But New England has nothing left to prove after a 2-0 SU start to the preseason, as they will be out filling out depth roles the next two weeks. The same can be argued in Buffalo as well, as they've gone undefeated so far in the preseason too. Considering that Carolina and Detroit – New England and Buffalo's respective opponents – are looking for strong performances late in the preseason, they are definitely worthy of play on spots this week.

Detroit would love to get that first win of 2019 under their belt, and backing them against Buffalo this week might turn out to be one of the easier covers of Week 3's action.

The Giants are going to let Eli Manning build on a strong performance in last Friday's rout of the Bears by playing him most of the first half with the first-team offense. There's no real controversy. If he's healthy, he'll start Week 1 ahead of rookie Daniel Jones, who will look to keep the pressure on and will likely have the benefit of many of the same receivers Manning will be working with since a thin group has to overcome Golden Tate's four-game ban and won't have him here due to a concussion. The Giants are the highest-scoring team so far this preseason, averaging 31.5 points.

Andy Dalton is striving to get comfortable in Taylor's offense and drove the Bengals down the field against the Chiefs in his first test drive before sputtering last week in leading the A.J. Green-less offense to possessions that ended with a red-zone pick-six, a punt and a missed field goal. Rookie Ryan Finley then came in and played brilliantly, so the second half of this one will be worth watching. Cincinnati's backups outscored Washington's 17-0. Left tackle Cordy Glenn has been dealing with a concussion and likely won't play, but DT Geno Atkins and top pass rusher Carl Lawson are expected to line up for the defense.

The 'Skins haven't had Colt McCoy available this preseason and have given first-round pick Dwayne Haskins a long look, but projected starter Case Keenum will get the bulk of the work that matters in this dress rehearsal. Washington has averaged just 11.5 points thus far and has been outscored 30-3 in the second half of games. 34-year-old RB Adrian Peterson has looked sharp and hasn't shied away from preseason reps, but veteran tackle Trent Williams remains a holdout despite being regarded as a vital part of the 2019 offensive line.

The Falcons carry an 11-game preseason losing streak into this game, last winning on Sept. 1, 2016. With Matt Ryan leading an offense that will also include Devonta Freeman, who looks explosive coming off season-ending groin surgery, this is a great opportunity to end that skid since the 'ones' are expected to play into the second half. Atlanta has been outscored 44-11 in the second half, so they could get a boost from the fact most of their projected final roster will see the bulk of the work. If it's close late, Danny Etling might end up making the difference. He was working as a WR/QB for the Patriots before being cut and is looking to impress enough to earn a practice squad nod.

Cam Newton will make his debut after offseason shoulder surgery. He's been airing out in practices and will likely put a few deep balls on tape just to show that he can after being deactivated late last season after visibly struggling to push the ball down the field. Ron Rivera wants to see him play three or four series before giving way to backups Kyle Allen and rookie Will Grier, locked in a battle to be the primary backup. Linebacker Luke Kuechly, back Christian McCaffrey and tight end Greg Olson will all debut, so it will be interesting to see whether rust is a factor against a Pats' defense you figure will be disciplined. Rivera is 4-4 in Preseason Week 3.

Receiver Josh Gordon has been reinstated but is still on the non-football injury list alongside Cam Meredith. Veteran Demariyus Thomas is still on the PUP list, while Julian Edelman has returned to practice after breaking his thumb but probably won't play against the Panthers. Tom Brady has had no problem making the backups shine in practices and will probably get a chance to show off his chemistry with talented rookie N'Keal Harry. Bill Belichick can always wake up and decide he doesn't want to expose his 42-year-old QB needlessly, but Brady has said he wants to play. Belichick is just 9-9 in Week 3 of the preseason.

Lamar Jackson has seen extensive preseason action and has worked to stay in the pocket so far, looking to improve his accuracy and avoiding taking unnecessary hits before the lights come on. He went 5-for-7 with four TD passes in red-zone against Philly in Tuesday's joint practice, improving after a rough Monday. The Ravens have had to shuffle their offensive line significantly due to injuries, so it remains to be seen whether they'll be able to hold up in the second half. McSorley and Callahan, a former Packer, will likely split the time available behind Jackson. Robert Griffin III is out for the entire preseason with a hairline fracture in his thumb. The Ravens have won 15 consectuive preseason games, last losing on Sept. 3, 2015. They have scored in every quarter this preseason an have won all first and second-half bets. Harbaugh has gone 8-3 in Week 3 and has dropped just one preseason home game since mid-August of '13.

The Eagles looked sharp last week but certainly capitalized on the Jaguars' decision to sit Nick Foles, riding the inexperienced Gardner Minshew instead. Their defense will get a much tougher test against the speedy Jackson, who will offer a much different look than anyone Jim Schwartz's defense will see early in the regular season. Pederson has kept Carson Wentz and most of the big names safely on the sidelines and has lost backups Nate Sudfeld and Cody Kessler to injuries, so it's unlikely that he'll deviate from exposing his regulars. Veteran tackle Jason Peters wants to play the first half. The 40-year-old McCown signed last week to be the primary backup and may see his first action, but Thorson should again get the bulk of the snaps. Pederson has won two of his three Week 3 games in the preseason.

Rodgers will be a game-time decision but may not play given concerns over the field turf since this game will be played at Winnipeg's Investors Group Field, a CFL stadium. It's hard to see LeFleur taking a risk with Rodgers, who has yet to see the field this preseason but has looked sharp in the more controlled environment of practice. He's been dealing with a back issue too, so be prepared for a long look at Kizer. Aaron Jones should return to the running backs rotation and Jammal Williams is back after nursing an injury, so it wouldn't be surprising to see the Pack work on the run game up in Canada.

The Raiders who have taken the field for these preseason games have mostly impressed, but Antonio Brown's helmet headache has overshadowed that success. Gruden has refused to call it a distraction, standing by him and his team's body of work thus far as proof that everyone is getting their work done. Defensive coordinator Paul Guenther hasn't been shy about putting opposing quarterbacks in compromising positions by blitzing and game-planning more than you typically see in exhibition play, which may be another reason to avoid playing Rodgers. Gruden is 4-4 in Week 3 preseason games.

After sitting out 31 players in the preseason opener and 27 last week, Marrone will allow his projected regulars to take the field in South Florida. Foles will be out there for the first time and looks to lead Jacksonville to its first first-quarter points. Minshew, who has seen the bulk of the work, will again be relied upon most, likely taking over sometime in the second quarter. The defense is expected to be on a pitch count, with coordinator Todd Wash more concerned seeing his personnel accomplish things he'll want to see from them come regular-season than game-planning for the Dolphins specifically. Marrone has won only one of his four Week 3 preseason games and has seen 12 of his 19 games go 'under.' McGough, who will likely play the final quarter, played in Miami at FIU.

Fitzpatrick continues to lead Rosen and is expected to take the first regular-season snaps for Miami, but the job hasn't been won just yet. That makes this contest essential to both hopefuls Kenyan Drake is dealing with an injured right foot that may affect his status for Week 1, so the Dolphins will lean on Kalen Ballage and Mark Walton to anchor the ground game. Walton is dealing with a legal matter that may lead to an early suspension, so Ballage could be in line for heavy work early. Early standout Preston Williams will be looking to rebound after a rough night against the Bucs, so expect to see the ball in the air so long as the weather permits. Thunderstorms are always a possibility in the early evening, so check the forecast.

It's a two-game betting board in the NFL on Friday night, as a couple of AFC teams with more positive expectations on them this year then either have had in recent memory, head out on the road to square off with a couple of NFC bottom feeders from a season ago.

The Cleveland Browns and Buffalo Bills are both road favorites (a rarity to say) for their preseason games against Tampa Bay and Detroit respectively. The Browns and Bills have yet to lose in the preseason and results like that only fan the flames for both fanbases who expect their respective teams to be playoff bound come January.

However, the more immediate question becomes whether or not both will remain undefeated after this week. The Lions are winless so far this August and would love to give their home crowd a win to celebrate, while Tampa Bay's been in two different preseason games decided by two points already this summer and are catching more then that as a home dog vs the Browns.

So here's a look at both of them, as this preseason is finally starting to wind down:

Cleveland (-3) vs Tampa Bay (+3); Total set at 42.5

The hype train in Cleveland has grown so big that the city needs multiple bilevel cars strung together to contain it. The Browns are going to win the division, the AFC, the Super Bowl, are plenty of bold claims that have gotten out of hand, and with QB Baker Mayfield seemingly in the news cycle every 10 days for someone being offended/upset at something new he's said, the Cleveland Browns never seem to leave the news cycle for long these days.

If this kind of stuff continues on through September and October, it's going to be harder and harder to not go contrarian and look to fade Cleveland in different spots that come up, and it's that mentality that those who are sick of all this talk about the 2019 Cleveland Browns being the best team in all of the land are starting to lean towards for the rest of this preseason as well. Yet, the market was quick to back Cleveland this week, pushing their line up from an opening number of -1, and that's in part why I'd hold off on fading the Browns and their potentially inflated lines.

That move is significant no doubt, but even with the Buccaneers playing tight preseason games so far where a spread move like this could end up mattering, it's still the Browns that I've got to side with. I say that because not only does a line move like this game has had deserve respect, but Cleveland has spent the better part of the last six months doing everything to try and change the franchise's identity and become sort of a “paper bully” that everyone across the league should fear because of the player acquisitions they've done in that time. And what do “paper bullies” like to do? Pick on the smallest/weakest around them to further their image of power, or in football terms; win the games that don't matter.

Cleveland has made a point about these preseason results mattering to them, as they've not been shy about going out their early, trying to grab a lead, and then take the game from there. The more wins this team can pile up – whether they count or not – only helps them build that ego up and inflate those cars on the Browns hype train even more. That's a scenario that we can all profit from down the line in September and October when hope and hype converge to inflate this team well past the safe rate, but we've still got to get their first. And for the Browns, that means continuing to win these games.

Two tight games against Miami and Pittsburgh so far in the preseason have to have them content with what they've seen from the bulk of their starters so far this year, and they probably aren't looking to start another year without Jameis Winston under center for Week 1.

The line move on Cleveland was definitely warranted, and one that should likely only be sided with.

Best Bet: Cleveland -3

Buffalo (-1.5) vs Detroit; Total set at 42

So I've got the Browns remaining undefeated in the preseason this week, but I can't same the same thing about the Bills. Buffalo has already gone out and beat the Colts and Panthers – each by 8 or more points – through two weeks of play, but I think that's where the winning stops for them this August. Like the Browns this week, Buffalo has gotten enough support to flip the line to make them the favorite, and while it's a move worthy of respect for sure, it's not one that I can say I agree with.

Buffalo may be a team that's got realistic playoff expectations as well in 2019, but they aren't in need of being the loudest barker on the block in the sense that Cleveland is trying to grab that role. Bills fans also got to taste playoff atmosphere a just a couple of years ago, so there isn't that same sort of 'look at me, I'm the best' persona that Cleveland's emitted this summer as well. So compared to the first game on the card on Friday, Buffalo's a lot more comparable to Tampa Bay than the also-undefeated Browns in the sense that they've got nothing much left to prove this August other then to stay healthy and continue to prepare for Week 1.

On the flip side, Detroit's Matt Patricia has shown that preseason means very little to him, but for a Lions team that's looking for a much better year as well, they could see some results on the football field sooner rather then later.

Detroit got blown out by the Patriots in Week 1, and were on the wrong side of a shootout with Houston last week. Giving up 30 points each week has to be the biggest concern overall for a defensive guy like Patricia, and if the Lions are able to shut down a Bills starting unit that sees plenty of snaps, albeit not an offense known for explosion plays, that's a good sign of growth for Detroit going forward.

Then when you consider that Buffalo is on a 0-7 ATS run in the preseason when coming off consecutive wins and 0-5 ATS on the road in the preseason when off a win by 10+ points, this line move is one that's much easier to go against.

Detroit needs a confidence building performance going into a year that will likely end up being a struggle to see .500 again, and at home in this spot I believe they get it.

Chicago's offense hasn't accomplished much in the preseason by scoring 13 points each in a pair of losses to the Panthers and Giants. In last week's setback at New York, the Bears were held to only 165 yards as Mitchell Trubisky sat out. In spite of Chicago's offensive woes through two exhibition games, the OVER has hit in both contests, while the OVER is currently on a six-game run in the Bears' last six preseason contests. The Bears have won each of their last two preseason games in Week 3, including a 27-20 victory over the Bears as six-point home underdogs.

The Colts never led in a 21-18 home setback to the Browns last week as three-point favorites to fall to 0-2 in the preseason. Andrew Luck remains sidelined for the Colts with an ankle injury, but all three Indianapolis quarterbacks threw for at least 100 yards each, led by Chad Kelly's 115 yards. The Colts covered in all four preseason games in 2018 before failing to cash the first two weeks in 2019, as Indianapolis beat San Francisco in Week 3 last preseason in a pick-em spot.

The Texans bounced back from a two-point loss at Green Bay to hold off Detroit last week, 30-23 to cash as three-point favorites. Deshaun Watson led the Texans to a touchdown in his only drive of the night by hooking up with DeAndre Hopkins on a four-yard scoring strike. Houston has easily hit the OVER in both preseason games after drilling the UNDER in three of four exhibition contests last season. The Texans have lost their last two Week 3 preseason contests, including a 21-20 road defeat to the Rams in 2018.

In a battle of teams that have proven they care little about the preseason, the Cowboys edged the Rams in Hawaii last Saturday, 14-10. Dallas not only covered as a 3 ½-point favorite, but the Cowboys snapped a five-game preseason skid to grab their first exhibition win since 2017. Ezekiel Elliott remains out for the Cowboys due to his contract dispute, while Dak Prescott completed all five passes for 64 yards in his limited action. Dallas lost at Houston in its previous exhibition matchup in Week 4 of 2018 by a 14-6 count as 4 ½-point underdogs.

Following a 34-25 defeat to Minnesota to kick off the preseason, the Saints rebounded for a 19-17 triumph over the Chargers last week in Los Angeles. New Orleans rallied from a 17-3 deficit to outscore Los Angeles, 16-0 in the second half, highlighted by a pair of touchdown passes by Taysom Hill. The former BYU standout threw for 136 yards and rushed for an additional 53 yards, while Teddy Bridgewater was less than impressive by throwing for 40 yards and getting intercepting once. Drew Brees will see his first action of the preseason against New York as the Saints seek their fifth consecutive preseason road win dating back to 2017.

The Jets also needed a rally in their last preseason contest as they scored the final 16 points of a 22-10 road victory over the Falcons. Luke Falk put the Jets ahead early in the fourth quarter with a touchdown pass to Deontay Burnett, while James Burgess returned a late interception for a touchdown to seal it. The Jets have lost three consecutive Week 3 preseason games by a total of eight points since 2016.

Jimmy Garoppolo returns to the scene of the crime at Arrowhead Stadium as the 49ers' quarterback sustained a season-ending torn ACL last September. Garoppolo didn't play in the preseason opening win over the Cowboys, but suited up for the first time since that ACL injury in last Monday's 24-15 victory at Denver. The former Patriots' quarterback wasn't sharp in his return to the field by completing 1-of-6 passes, while getting intercepted once. The win over the Broncos snapped a three-game road preseason skid, as the Niners make their first exhibition trip to Kansas City since a 27-17 triumph in the 2017 opener.

The Chiefs dominated the Bengals in the preseason opener at home, 38-17, but didn't produce much offense in last week's 17-7 defeat at Pittsburgh as three-point favorites. Patrick Mahomes didn't last long as threw for 15 yards on 2-of-5 attempts, while Chad Henne led the Chiefs to their only touchdown of the game late in the second quarter. As obscure as it may seem, the Chiefs have won five consecutive home preseason games that don't take place in Week 1, while losing their last two Week 3 preseason contests, both on the road.

The Broncos rallied past the Falcons in the Hall of Fame game, 14-10, but Denver hasn't won since after losing to Seattle and San Francisco the last two weeks. Denver kicked three field goals early but didn't reach the end zone against San Francisco until 2:15 remaining in regulation in a 24-15 defeat. The Broncos racked up only 215 yards of offense, while second round pick Drew Lock exited the game with a thumb injury. All three preseason games for the Broncos have finished UNDER the total, which is in stark contrast to the 3-1 OVER mark in the 2018 exhibition campaign.

The Rams have gutted out 13 points in two preseason losses to the Raiders and Cowboys, while Jared Goff and Todd Gurley haven't sniffed the field and won't until the regular season. The only positive to come out of the preseason is Los Angeles has allowed 14 points in each defeat, as the Rams yielded 20 or more points in three of four exhibition contests in 2018. This marks only the second time in Sean McVay's tenure as head coach of the Rams that Los Angeles is an exhibition favorite, as they failed to cover as 2 ½-point chalk in a 21-19 setback to the Chargers in Week 3 of the 2017 preseason.

The Seahawks took care of the Broncos in their preseason opener, 22-14 as two-point home underdogs to snap a four-game preseason skid. Seattle fell at Minnesota last week, 25-19 as three-point underdogs, while not scoring an offensive touchdown. The Seahawks returned an interception for a score, while the rest of their points came on four field goals. Russell Wilson threw for 82 yards in his first preseason action, while the Seahawks mustered 221 yards of offense. Seattle lost at Los Angeles last preseason, 24-14 as three-point underdogs, marking the Seahawks' lowest point total in an exhibition contest since an 18-11 loss to the Vikings in 2016.

The Chargers have dropped a pair of low-scoring preseason contests to the Cardinals and Saints by a combined six points. Los Angeles blew a 14-point lead in last week's 19-17 home defeat to New Orleans, as the Chargers' offense reached the end zone only once. Philip Rivers has yet to suit up in the preseason, as the veteran quarterback last played in an exhibition contest in a 36-7 drubbing to the Saints in Week 3 of 2018. Since starting the 2015 preseason at 2-0, the Chargers have slipped to a 4-12 mark in their past 16 exhibition games, while covering only six times in this stretch.

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