2012 Independent Spirit Award Predictions

We are only 23 days away from hearing the winners of the 2012 Independent Spirit Awards so I thought I would give a shot at predictions who those winners will be. The Spirit Awards are a little be harder to predict than the Oscars because they do not tend to follow as many patterns nor does it have as wide of an audience. This year has a chance to be closer to the outcome of the Oscars than any other year with The Artist being the favorite at both shows. Christopher Plummer and A Separation also could be set to win both a Spirit Award and Oscar. In addition to picking the winners for each category I gave some insight as to why in the “Notes” section under the categories.

Tune in on Saturday February 25th to IFC and see how well I did (or did not do).

The full list of Independent Spirit Award predictions:(My prediction for the winners are highlighted in bold red font)

NOTES: I would be completely shocked if The Artist did not win as it seems like the strongest of the bunch. However, you have to go all the back to 1987 for the winner of this category to be the same film that wins Best Picture at the Oscars. Since it is the front runner to win the Oscar, history may repeat itself and some other film may win. If that were the case, I think Drive has a good chance as well as The Descendants.

NOTES: This is tricky because the winner of Best Director is typically the same as the Best Feature. So if you get one wrong you will probably get both wrong. I am sticking with The Artist (Michel Hazanavicius) as the frontrunner with Alexander Payne for The Descendants as my second pick.

NOTES: My bets are on Martha Marcy May Marlene winning this award. Natural Section did win at SXSW Film Festival and Another Earth won awards at the Sundance Film Festival so they have pretty good odds of winning as well. Margin Call is already taking home the Robert Altman Award so I think their recognition ends with that.

NOTES: With George Clooney out of the race I think Jean Dujardin is a shoo-in. Ryan Gosling and Michael Shannon will likely accept the nomination as their win since they were snubbed from the Oscars this year.

NOTES: I think this will be close between Michelle Williams (who will probably not be taking home an Oscar this year) and Elizabeth Olsen (who was not nominated for an Oscar). I am picking Michelle Williams, who lost last year’s award to Natalie Portman.

NOTES: Being that Christopher Plummer is pretty much a lock to win the Oscar, it only seems fitting he will win a Spirit Award as well. Albert Brooks is the definite dark horse here. John Hawkes won this exact award last year so I doubt he would get it two years in a row. I am glad to see Corey Stoll get the nomination for Midnight In Paris but there is little chance he will win.

NOTES: I believe Shaileen Woodley will pick up the one of my predicted two awards for The Descendants. Although, I will be rooting for Jessica Chastain to win for not only her role in Take Shelter, but she has a terrific year for her roles in The Tree of Life and The Help.

John Cassavetes Award: (Given to the best feature made for under $500,000; award given to the writer, director, and producer)

NOTES: 2007 was the last time that the same film won an Independent Spirit Award and an Oscar for this category. A Separation is pretty much a given that it will win the Oscar but with contending films like Melancholia and Shame that is tough to say here. Both of those films were robbed of any Oscar nominations so it would be nice to see them get a win here. I thought hard about this and ended up going with A Separation to win but I think Melancholia has a shot for the reasons above.

NOTES: It would be a shame if 50/50 went home empty handed especially since the host this year is Seth Rogen who co-stars in the film. Based on real life events of Will Reiser I think he will take home the award for this. The Sundance standout Another Earth may also have a decent shot.