We present a ‘new and improved’ version of Rabo’s Emerging Market Vulnerability Heatmap which is constructed from a more comprehensive list of inputs. The heatmap highlights ARS, TRY and ZAR as the most vulnerable emerging market currencies.

The past year has been tumultuous for Latin American politics, characterised by a shift to the right in election results and away from populism in policy, and numerous corruption scandals. Current risk levels are likely to linger in the coming year.

The Argentinian government is sustaining efforts to open up and normalize the economy, but it is shifting to a more gradual approach given social and political constraints. Important successes have already been booked on the external front.

Following a court ruling in new York on 19 February Argentina is one step closer to solving a 15 year old debt saga and to regaining access to international markets. However, several conditions have to be met first.

Following opposition victory in the November 2015 Argentinian elections, Argentina changes course on economic policy. The shift is good for the business environment, but not without implementation risks.

In an international climate where so many indicators are orange, we should count our blessings for now that the Netherlands is set to be a green oasis both this year and next. Things have looked rather different in recent years.