The Linemakers

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Before the NCAA Tournament brackets are released Sunday evening, there’s still business to be settled on the court, giving bettors one last chance to plump their bankroll before the Big Dance.

Four conferences, in fact, hold their tournament title games Sunday, as Mississippi and Florida (SEC), North Carolina and Miami (ACC), Wisconsin and Ohio State (Big Ten), and VCU and St. Louis (Atlantic 10) battle for supremacy in their respective leagues.

Here is analysis on each of those games, with some picks offered by The Linemakers on Sporting News.

For the 18th time this season, Florida is a double-digit favorite against an SEC foe, as the Gators opened as 11-point chalk over Mississippi in the SEC tournament championship game.

The Gators are 11-6 against the spread as double-digit faves this season, but failed to cover when laying 17.5 points in a 78-64 win over Ole Miss on Feb. 2,. While Florida out-rebounded the Rebels, 32-24, Ole Miss was without reserves Nick Williams and Aaron Jones, and still managed to earn the Gators’ respect.

"This was our toughest game by far," Florida guard Scottie Wilbekin said after the game. “They didn't make it easy on us. We had to come out and play our best basketball. They had a lot of different weapons and we just had to try and shut them down."

Ole Miss guard Marshall Henderson, the SEC’s leading scorer, had 25 points, including seven 3-pointers, against the Gators. Henderson has scored more than 20 points in four straight games and has 50 in Rebels’ two wins in the SEC tournament.

Gators point guard Kenny Boynton, who had been struggling, keyed Florida’s decisive run and finished with 16 points in Saturday’s 61-51 win over Alabama.

The Rebels are 5-1 against the spread as underdogs this season, and the dog in this series has covered six straight.

Florida is third in the nation in defense, allowing just 53.2 points per game. Mississippi is the SEC’s highest-scoring team, averaging 79.2 points per game.

The Linemakers’ lean: Florida is No. 2 in The Linemakers’ power ratings with a 167.8, more than 13 points better than Ole Miss. But since conference title game’s are typically tightly contested, Sunday's point spread comes in right around where we expected it to be. Florida has failed to cover nine of its last 13 games. But the Gators are defensively-superior SEC team and have gone UNDER in seven of their last eight. We’re inclined to ride that trend.

North Carolina really didn’t offer much of a challenge in a pair of regular-season losses to the Hurricanes, but the Tar Heels are just short underdogs in Saturday’s ACC tournament title game.

The line opened at Miami -1 1/2, but climbed to as high as -3 1/2 as of Sunday morning.

There’s no question Roy Williams’ club has improved since it was blown out, 87-61, in Miami on Feb. 9. The Tar Heels have covered in eight of their last 10 since that humiliating defeat.

Miami hit 13 of its first 19 3-point shots, led by 17 at halftime and was never threatened in that game. The first meeting was closer, but the Hurricanes pulled away to a 68-59 win on Jan. 10 in Chapel Hill.

North Carolina’s late-season surge was sparked by Williams’ decision to use a four-guard lineup more often. The Heels will force the pace more than ‘Canes’, who prefer to pound defenses inside with its plethora of big men.

Both of these teams have consistently exceeded oddsmakers’ expectations this season. The Heels are 20-10 ATS; Miami is 19-9-1 ATS.

The Linemakers’ lean: We have Miami about 2 points higher than North Carolina, which makes this spread pretty much on the money. The game is in Greensboro, Tar Heel territory, so there may be a home-court advantage to consider, but we’re comfortable with where the line opened. While both of these teams have been point-spread darlings this season, the Hurricanes have an advantage in the backcourt and are better defensively.

The Buckeyes are surging with seven straight wins. Their last loss, though, was a 22-point beat down at Wisconsin on Feb. 17.

Still, Ohio State opened as the favorite in Sunday’s Big Ten tournament championship game against a Wisconsin team that knocked off Michigan and Indiana in consecutive days to advance to the finals. The favorite has covered in seven of the last eight meetings.

"We're playing our best basketball at the end of the season, and that's what you want to do," Badger forward Mike Bruesewitz told reporters Saturday.

So are the Buckeyes, who have covered the spread in six of their last eight.

Ohio State won the first meeting with the Badgers, 58-49, on Jan. 29 in Columbus. Deshaun Thomas had 25 points in the Buckeyes’ win, and Wisconsin didn’t attempt a single free throw in the game.

Expect another Big Ten grinder between two defensive-minded teams that limit fouls. The last four meetings averaged 115 points, and nine of the last 14 have stayed UNDER the total.

The Linemakers’ lean: This matchup features the two best teams and two best defenses in the conference. The Rams and Billikens are dead-even from a power-ratings perspective, but the line comes in right where we anticipated.

These squads sport nearly identical records, but St. Louis is been the far more profitable investment. The Billikens are 20-10 ATS, and have won and covered 14 of their last 15. The Rams are a disappointing 10-16 ATS, with most of those covers coming on their home floor.