Primary Dealer Treasury Holdings Soar To Record

Whether it is the need to soak up all of the Fed's sub 3-year paper sold on an almost daily basis by the Fed courtesy of Operation Twist (which despite ending in 2 weeks, has already brough the average SOMA holding maturity to a record 105.5 months despite the Fed's implicit target of 100 months, meaning the Fed has overshot its duration ramping target by a lot), or because dealers are suddenly very concerned with having equity exposure, in its last update, the NY Fed has disclosed that as of June 6 Primary Dealers held a record $128 billion in Treasury holdings, a massive 41% increase over the prior week's $91 billion. Whatever the reason, Dealers are now firmly into Trasurys, having increased their net holdings across the curve by $170 billion from -$48 billion last April. And just as notably, for the first time since May 2010 Dealers held no offsetting short positions anywhere on the curve.

In conclusion: absolutely everyone is now on the same side of the UST trade.