Despite all the concerns that payroll disparity would lead to boring predictability, baseball has proved to be the toughest sport for the so-called experts to predict in recent years. So did the pundit class bounce back in 2013?

The answer is a resounding no. In fact, they arguably did even worse! This year we ramped up our coverage, tracking a whopping 63 pundits this year from ESPN, Sports Illustrated, CBS, Yahoo, and Fox. On average, the pundits got 29% of their division picks right for a woeful $0.63 Yield. The Yield measures the average payout, on average, had you bet $1 of each of the pundit’s picks; in this case, you would have lost 37% of your money.

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Before we get to the individual pundits, let’s analyze their picks in aggregate. Here were the pundits’ division favorites going into the season, with the final rank of those teams in parentheses.

Division

Pundits' Pick (#)

Final Standing

AL East

Toronto (30/63)

Last (23 games out)

AL Central

Detroit (62/63)

#1

AL West

LA Angels (37/63)

#3 (18 games out)

NL East

Washington (59/63)

#2 (10 games out)

NL Central

Cincinnati (52/63)

#3 (7 games out)

NL West

San Francisco (32/63)

#3 (16 games out)

Every prediction aside from Detroit was wrong. Toronto is perhaps the most glaring one, as almost half the pundits picked the Blue Jays, who finished 23 games out, to win the AL East.

Perhaps even more appalling is just how wrong the pundits were with respect to many of the actual division winners. Here are those leaders along with the number of experts that predicted each team to win.

Division

Winner

Pundit #

Pundit %

AL East

Boston

0/63

0%

AL Central

Detroit

62/63

98%

AL West

Oakland

10/63

16%

NL East

Atlanta

4/63

6%

NL Central

St. Louis

11/63

17%

NL West

Los Angeles

23/63

37%

So zero (yes, zero) out of 63 pundits picked the Red Sox to win the AL East, while only a handful picked the Athletics, Braves, and Cardinals.

Karl Ravech, as the only pundit to get the AL West, NL East, and NL West correct, was the best performer.

To see all the pundits’ individual picks (including Pennant and World Series picks) and to make your own predictions for the upcoming division series, visit our MLB section. We will grade you after each series is over, so use the “Vote Now” buttons to start building you own track record for everyone to see!

PunditTracker's mission is to bring accountability to the prediction industry by cataloging and scoring the predictions of pundits.