EU cuts milk production forecast

Published 13 September 16

The European Commission has lowered its forecast for 2016 milk production, according to provisional figures released this week. It now expects volumes to end the year 0.9% higher than in 2015, down from its previous estimate of 1.4%.

Production of the main dairy products will decrease in line with milk deliveries during the remainder of 2016, according to the Commission. Cheese and butter export volumes are also expected to slow but should still show strong growth for the whole of 2016, with cheese up 10% for the year and butter up 25%.

SMP exports are predicted to end the year 10% down overall, compared to 2015 volumes. This is likely to be due to the significant volumes sold into intervention this year, making a dent in the amount of product available for export. However, EU SMP prices have recently risen to around £100/tonne above the intervention price, with exports expected to pick up slightly in the second half of 2016.