Things really should be looking up … by mid-century

The plight of the Earth ecologically could hardly seem more sobering: A quarter of all fish stocks are over-exploited. Since World War II, more land has gone into cultivation than during all of the 18th and 19th centuries. Demand for food crops is expected to increase by 70 percent or more by mid-century, and water use also is skyrocketing. That’s just the score on food and water.

Yet the blue-ribbon team of scientists who put out the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment are pursuing a decidedly positive spin on the United Nations-sponsored look at our planet and how we live on it.

“There is significant reason for hope. We have the tools we need,” University of Wisconsin-Madison zoologist Stephen Carpenter, a lead author, tells the Christian Science Monitor for its version of the story.

The UN says the report represents “the fist time scientists have looked at how the health of the environment contributes to human well-being and quality of life and how policy decisions we make today will shape the world of tomorrow.”

The report sketches four possible paths. At one extreme, policies that promote modernization worldwide — including a vigorous battle against poverty and disease — are tempered by a systematic defense of the environment. This would tend to moderate population increases while stimulating economic growth, the authors conclude.

At the other extreme, nations jealously guard their turf, give no quarter, don’t concern themselves with the overall good. Importantly, they fail to see how ecosystems all interconnect to affect the globe. That leads to the highest population increases and the worst rates of economic growth, the authors conclude.

The current spin is a bit different from when a early edition of the report came out last year. For a look at the P-I’s coverage of that, go here.

In the end, Carpenter tells the Monitor, “there is no optimum approach, no one-size-fits-all. It’s all about trade-offs.”