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In the past, I have tried to do my Top 50 Twins prospect reports right before the June draft and then shortly following the completion of the minor league seasons which is generally in mid-September. This past year has been so much more busy than ever before on so many fronts, so this year, I am still going to update my Top 50 list and do some of my other pre-draft blogs, they will just have to be a bit condensed. With that, today I will be posting my updated Top 50 Twins prospect list. I would love to hear your thoughts or comments on any of the rankings. You don’t have to agree with me. So ask questions and present your Top 10, 20, 50 list for discussion too.

#1 – Kyle Gibson – RHP – New Britain Rockcats – Prospect lists are a combination of potential with likelihood to reach potential. Gibson can be a top of the order, #2 type of pitcher, and there is a very good chance that it will happen.

#2 – Aaron Hicks – OF – Beloit Snappers – Hicks has all of the tools, including the 6th tool (plate discipline). The Midwest League is not an easy place to play, but 2010 has been a very streaky season. His strong streak told us just how good he can be.

#3 – Miguel Sano – SS – DSL Twins – All of the potential in the world, but still a long way to go. He wants to be up in the big leagues by 19. The Twins will be wise to note let that happen.

#4 – Wilson Ramos – C – Rochester Red Wings – Strong spring training. Horrible start at Rochester. Seven hits in his first two big league games. Reality set in. Ramos is immensely talented, both offensively and potentially defensively when he puts in the effort. Will be interesting to see if he’s still with the organization in August.

#5 – Adrian Salcedo – RHP – Ft. Myers Miracle – 19 years old. Throws hard. Working on the breaking pitches, but he has been impressive in his short stint at Ft. Myers so far, even though he should probably be waiting for the Elizabethton season. Very high ceiling.

#6 – Angel Morales – OF – Beloit Snappers – It’s been a disappointing 2010 so far for Morales. He hasn’t hit for as much power, but the tools are all there. It would be nice for him to have a strong second half. He is one of the better base stealers in the organization.

#7 – Joe Benson – OF – Ft. Myers Miracle – Speaking of all the tools, Benson’s ability to hit for power and get on base very well have him high on this list. The ability to put the ball in play seems to be the one thing that he needs to improve most, which is likely why he is back in Ft. Myers.

#8 – Davis Bromberg – RHP – New Britain Rockcats – It’s been an up and down season for Bromberg, but he has four or five pitches, and he’s quite young. He also has great confidence and will work through any struggles. I expect that he will have a strong second half.

#9 – Ben Revere – OF – New Britain Rockcats – Comparing Revere to Hicks, Morales and Benson isn’t really fair. The other three are all much better and have much higher potential in terms of power and defense and arm. But Revere is a great singles hitter with tremendous speed and his base stealing has continued to improve. His likelihood to be a solid big league player is higher than the other three OF prospects.

#10 – Danny Valencia – 3B – Minnesota Twins – Valencia is currently with the Twins with Michael Cuddyer out. Everywhere he has played, he has hit for average. He has never hit below .282. He doesn’t like to walk too much, but an IsoD of over .050 is at least adequate. He is yet to homer this year, but his minor league track record indicates that he can hit for some power. And his defense has continued to improve.

#11 – Deolis Guerra – RHP – Rochester Red Wings – Is he ready for AAA? Probably not. But he’s holding his own and continues to learn. Best changeup in the organization, and his incredible improved control is very impressive.

#12 – Alex Burnett – RHP – Minnesota Twins – Burnett was a surprise when he made the team out of spring training, but he has proven that he is ready and has pitched very well for the Twins. He always had good control, even as a starter. He throws hard and has three very good pitches. He’s still young, but he is a guy who could be a future closer.

#13 – Trevor Plouffe – SS – Rochester Red Wings – Plouffe has seemingly put things together in 2010, and it’s hard to believe that he is still just 23 years old. He has the ability to be an everyday Major League shortstop, which alone should probably move him even higher up this list.

#14 – Liam Hendriks – RHP – Ft. Myers Miracle – I don’t know if Hendriks’ terrific start this season is a surprise, but it certainly has been noticed. He was the organization’s pitcher of the month in April which earned him an early promotion to Ft. Myers where he has continued to be very good. His stuff is very good, and he understands how to get hitters out.

#15 – BJ Hermsen – RHP – Beloit Snappers – Hermsen started the year at EST, but when needed, he was promoted to Beloit. He has been good at times, and at other times shown that he might be best served by pitching at E-town. But he has good stuff, good size and very good control, and the Twins love that.

#16 – Carlos Gutierrez – RHP – New Britain Rockcats – I still believe that Gutierrez will be a big league relief pitcher, and a very good one. It’s important to remember that he is working on adding pitches while in AA. He gets a ton of ground balls. He throws 95 with sink. Just has to trust his stuff and he can dominate.

#17 – Rene Tosoni – OF – New Britain Rockcats – How much has the shoulder injury hurt Tosoni in 2010? He is still hitting around .280, but to this point, the power hasn’t shown up the way it did last year. Tosoni is very good, so this ranking doesn’t feel right. I think he should be higher, but right now, today, I just can’t do it.

#18 – Bruce Pugh – RHP – Ft. Myers Miracle – Although he was called a sleeper this offseason, Pugh was also a very pleasant surprise this year… until an elbow injury which has sidelined him for a few weeks already. Hopefully he will be alright because he throws hard and has a couple of improving secondary pitches that make him potentially dominant.

#19 – Jeff Manship – RHP – Rochester Red Wings – Again, a guy who is the big league club’s sixth start, and gave up two runs in six innings for the Twins shouldn’t be ranked this low. Manship can pitch in the big leagues, although his time in AAA this year will be valuable as well. He can help the Twins already when needed, but he can still continue to get better.

#20 – Chris Parmelee – 1B – Ft. Myers Miracle – Parmelee has a ton of potential as well, but he was overmatched in AA. Getting sent back to Ft. Myers was the best thing that could happen. He can now work on his game without being overwhelmed. The contact rate is always the question with Parmelee, but hopefully with the Miracle, he can regain his ability to take walks and to hit for power.

#21 – Max Kepler – OF – Extended Spring Training – All the talent in the world, but it will be very interesting to see how Max Kepler is able to put it together. Very good speed. Solid already defensively. Needs work on the offensive part of the game. But he’s just 17, and the Twins will be very patient with him. I’d expect him to spend two years with the GCL Twins before advancing.

#22 – Tom Stuifbergen – RHP – Beloit Snappers – Hopefully his elbow issues and his upcoming MRI reveal nothing and that Stuifbergen can rest and come back strong soon. He is another guy who just knows how to get hitters out. He has very good stuff, but he knows how to pitch, and that’s important too.

#23 – Blayne Weller – RHP – Extended Spring Training – I’m surprised and curious as to why Weller has not been promoted from EST to a full-season team, and yet, it is in his best interest to pitch for the E-Twins this year. He’s got good stuff and great control. Just a notch behind Hermsen.

#24 – Luke Hughes – 2B – Rochester Red Wings – How cool was it to see Hughes hit a home run in his first at bat with the Twins? Again, this feels like a low ranking, and yet, as good as Hughes has shown he can be, he just keeps getting hurt and isn’t able to sustain the success very long. If he could stay healthy, he can help the Twins, maybe as a pinch hitter. I also think he could compete for the starting 2B job next year.

#25 – Chris Herrmann – C/OF – Ft. Myers Miracle – Herrmann has done a very good job adjusting to the catcher position. He’s quick and has a strong arm. But he is also an excellent defensive left fielder. He is also a solid hitter. The Twins typically do not have players skip levels, but Herrmann was pushed from Elizabethton last year to Ft. Myers this year and hasn’t been completely over his head. He’s got a chance to be a solid all-around player.

#26 – Bobby Lanigan – RHP – Ft. Myers Miracle – Gibson got all the notice, but Lanigan was even better in April. Unfortunately, he has only pitched once since then. He has a good fastball and a very good slider, so hopefully he can get back soon.

#27 – Steve Singleton – 2B – New Britain Rockcats – Another guy who should be much higher on this list probably.

#28 – Billy Bullock – RHP – Ft. Myers Miracle – The 2009 second round pick from Florida can throw hard. He can dominate and gets a lot of strikeouts, but he should continue to get better and better. He is a future closer option.

#29 – Tyler Robertson – LHP – New Britain Rockcats – Robertson has really struggled in 2010 at AA, allowing hitters to bat about .330 against him so far this year. The lefty does have decent stuff and a high baseball IQ, but he’s still so young for the level, even after spending two years at Ft. Myers. Hopefully his arm strength will continue to increase and he can move up this list. Remember, he was my choice for the Twins #1 prospect after the 2007 season.

#30 – Anthony Slama – RHP – Rochester Red Wings – Again, I know most won’t like this ranking, but it’s clear that there must be some reason that Slama has not been promoted, and I think a big part of that is the number of walks, which would likely increase more in the big leagues. But his ability to get strikeouts is pretty impressive, and he needs to get a shot soon. I mean, he’s already 26!

#31 – Michael Tonkin – RHP – Beloit Snappers – Tonkin was pitching best at EST when Beloit had a need, so he was the first promoted. He has actually done better than I would have thought. He’s got good control. He has a decent fastball and an improving curveball. He has a long way to go.

#32 – Yangervis Solarte – IF/OF – New Britain Rockcats – Like Hughes, Solarte can play a lot of places. His most natural position is 2B, but he can play basically all of the infield and outfield positions adequately. His biggest asset, however, has been his bat. Not sure how confident I am that he will sustain it, but he certainly could, and I’m comfortable with this ranking.

#33 – Danny Rams – C/1B – Beloit Snappers – Rams hit two home runs last night. I really, really hope that he can find a way to put the ball in play more because when he makes contact, he hits the ball so hard and can hit the ball a long way!

#34 – Shooter Hunt – RHP – Ft. Myers Miracle – It is good to see the improvements that Hunt has made this year. But he has a long way to go before we can feel confident in his future. But the potential is so high, he has to be on the list. He’ll be making another start today.

#35 – Jorge Polanco – SS – DSL Twins – When Baseball America named Polanco the top defensive infielder in the Twins organization, I wasn’t sure how to take that. It means he is very good, but it could also be an indictment of the rest of the system’s infielders. Polanco will have to show some bat to move his way up the list. I don’t expect him to hit much for a couple of years.

#36 – Edgar Ibarra – LHP – Beloit Snappers – I may be biased because I saw him pitch in Beloit, but I was very impressed with the high-side of his four pitches. Good fastball, worked both sides of the plate. Very good slider. Devastating changeup. Now, he wasn’t consistent with any of those pitches, and hasn’t been all year, but the pitches are there, and his potential is high.

#37 – Kyle Waldrop – RHP – Rochester Red Wings – Waldrop has impressed this entire year. 2009 was about staying healthy. 2010 has been about ground balls, throwing hard, getting a ton of movement on his pitches, and great success. There is a good chance that Waldrop, even with his lack of strikeouts, gets promoted before Anthony Slama.

#38 – Miguel Munoz – RHP – Beloit Snappers – The numbers haven’t been there in Beloit, but the stuff is incredible. Munoz throws quite hard and has good stuff. He just needs to throw more strikes and be more consistent.

#39 – Santos Arias – RHP – New Britain Rockcats – Arias fell a bit on this list, but even with his horrible performance in late innings for the Rockcats, his ERA isn’t bad. He still has good stuff. He has been healthy. He’s got a very good fastball, and a very good changeup. I’m not giving up on him at all.

#40 – James Beresford – SS/2B – Beloit Snappers – he was the player in Beloit that I was most impressed with. He will have to get bigger to make it to the next level. I assume that will happen, so he could move up this list very quickly. He got off to a very tough start in April, and is still hitting just .240, but he could very well be a big leaguer.

#41 – Anderson Hidalgo – 3B – Beloit Snappers – Hidalgo has been a doubles machine. He doesn’t play every day and splits some time with Reggie Williams at 3B, but he just hits. He’s the one hitter at Beloit that is actually putting up numbers, and not just singles. He doesn’t like to walk, and he doesn’t have much range, but he can continue to improve, and definitely is worth watching.

#42 – Michael McCardell – RHP – New Britain Rockcats – It’s been a tough season for McCardell in terms of wins and losses, but he hasn’t pitched terribly at all. He is a solid starter, probably a future bottom of the rotation guy, or even a long reliever. He has good stuff and is mentally strong, so he will be fine.

#43 – Brian Dinkelman – OF – Rochester Red Wings – This is probably a case of Age-ism. Dinkelman has done nothing but play well since the Twins drafted him in 2006. He is playing in AAA this year, and continues to walk more than strikeout, get extra base hits, hit for average and “do the little things.” He has also transitioned to the outfield pretty flawlessly.

#44 – Brad Tippett – RHP – Ft. Myers Miracle – Tippett is back on the DL with forearm issues. He just has not been able to get going. He has never thrown hard, but he’s got good size, so if he can continue to gain strength, he can add a few mph. And again, the Australian knows how to pitch.

#45 – Oswaldo Arcia – OF – Extended Spring Training – Arcia is young and did a nice job last year in the GCL. Has all kinds of tools.

#46 – Andrei Lobanov – LHP – Ft. Myers Miracle – One walk and 35 strikeouts in 22 innings in the GCL last year. He likely will go to E-town, but he has done quite well with the Miracle.

#47 – Steve Liddle – OF – Beloit Snappers – I thought he would do more this year with the Snappers. He has shown good power at times, but you would hope for more from a college hitter.

#48 – Rob Delaney – RHP – Rochester Red Wings – This is way too low, but Delaney has been hittable in Rochester after dominating all the way up to that level. That said, he still is walking very few and striking out about a batter an inning. He is ready.

#50 – Reggie Williams – IF – Beloit Snappers – Lots of talent. Getting a chance to play this year. He doesn’t seem to be a 3B, but should be a 2B. He has also played in the OF. Takes decent at bats and has doubles power.

There you have it. There is my Top 50 Twins Prospects list as of June 4, 2010. Let me know what you think, agree or disagree, and feel free to post your comments and questions in the Comments section.

Does Benson really have the “ability” to get on base. Or does he just take advantage of minor league pitchers with limited control by taking a lot of pitches? His 2-1 ratio of strikeouts to walks would indicate the latter.

I think this list puts too much emphasis on a player’s possible upside. It is fair to judge A ball players by their tools, but there is a point at which they need to show the ability to translate that athleticism into results.

Morales is struggling in his second year in low A ball. Benson was sent back down because he couldn’t handle AA pitching. Neither one is showing any real improvement. That lack of progress should move them out of the top 10 at some point.

As for Plouffe, he isn’t doing anything more than he did the last half of 2009. Which is the problem with using annual minor league results to evaluate prospects. They are supposed to get better as the season goes along. Plouffe did exactly that last year.

Which is also the reason Valencia was rated too high last year. He started at AAA very hot and then struggled the rest of the season. That carried over early this spring. But he seems to made some progress as the season moved along, albeit at the immediate cost of his home runs. But that is what you want to see – players getting better and making the adjustments to the higher level.

Ramos deserves to be rated higher. I think he is still the Twins top prospect. He is very young and inexperienced for AAA so its not surprising he is having to adjust. He projects as a plus defender at catcher. And he projects as having plus-plus power with decent average. He is ready now to play in the big leagues and he will only get better as he gets more experience. The only question is how good he will get.

Likewise, I think Guerra is at least in the top ten. Is he ready for AAA? With little doubt. He has only started four games, but one of those starts was 7IP 6H 2R 2BB 5K. That is a clear indication he isn’t over-matched. His last outing was 6IP 6H 1BB – unfortunately 4 of the 6 hits were home runs. But that still isn’t a sign he is over-matched. Of course it didn’t help his season ERA. My guess is you will see Guerra consistently improve and he may well be in Minnesota this fall.

As for Revere, I agree is isn’t fair to compare him to the other outfielders. Revere is obviously way ahead of them on the development curve. He is being judged by major league standards, no one is debiting Hicks yet because he takes lousy routes to balls.

I would say Swarzak not Manship is the Twins 6th starter when healthy.
Hermann is going to be 23 later this year and probably started with Ft Meyers because of C injuries. 232 BA and 318 SLG is not good. I believe he’s rated too high.
Bullock/Slama/Waldrop/Lobanov rated below Hermann. I know we disagree on reliever’s value but I’ll mention one point: Bullock was drafted in the 2nd round and Hermann in the 7th round for a reason.
Hunt at 34 is wishful thinking.
Overall – good job Seth.

Seth, how does the list change if you rank them by most likely to actually play more than a game or two in the majors? While those OFers have great upside, they also come with great risk still. None of them are sure things (even though I’d still be shocked if all three failed, not if one failed, but all three). I’m of course talking excluding injuries.

Gibson is a lock to pitch in the majors if healthy. Hicks is not yet a lock to actually play in the majors.

I always want some kind of measurement on two scales, likelihood to play and upside. I think it is very likely Revere will play for at least a few years in the majors (assuming he learns how to field), but it’s still possible that none of the big three will (which is why I am always on here arguing that it is occassionally ok to trade for veterans).

On that note, is there a team with an extra 3B prospect (either blocked by a MLB player, or because they have two) out there the Twins could deal with?

Zack – Jose Morales isn’t on my Top 50 either. Butera is what he is. Not a prospect, but doesn’t mean he can’t take a 25 man roster spot.

TT – I think that by definition, the term ‘prospect’ can mean several things. For me, it means potential, but you’re right, that has to be tempered with likelihood. As for Plouffe, I agree, that’s absolutley what you want to see, adjustment and improvement. That’s why he moved up about a dozen spots. I can’t really argue with you on Ramos. I think he could be in any of the top 4 spots without me arguing too much. And I like Guerra. He could certainly be a little higher than 11 or 12.

Actually, I really like your point about judging Revere by major league standards… It’s a great point because anyone below AA is ‘still developing’ whereas once you get to AA, the big leagues are right around the corner. Maybe that’s when the non-developed tools become ‘weaknesses’? Revere is essentially doing what he did in two years of A ball, but falls. Maybe it’s not fair. Like I said, everyone has their own opinion and I hope people feel comfortable leaving their lists here for good discussion. I like Revere. I think he’ll be a solid big leaguer.

Bill – Beloit has Pinto, Streich and Rams. If they wanted Herrmann to catch some, it would have to be at Ft. Myers. Or they could have moved one of those other guys up. I guess I don’t know what where Bullock and Herrmann were drafted last year has to do with my rankings. And yes, I struggle with ranking relievers, I admit that.

MWW – ranking by likelihood to reach the major leagues certainly changes it. Guys like Dinkelman and Fox and Manship and Ramos and Valencia all move up a lot. Also, draft position will play a larger role, I would think. The likelihood that Aaron Hicks makes it to the big leagues is significantly higher than Steve Singleton’s just because Hicks was given about $1.5 million whereas Singleton was an 11th or 12th round pick. That said, Singleton is two steps closer and playing much better at a position of need. It’s an interesting list that would be put together, equally debatable, but could be interesting.

Josh – It’s hard not to put Hicks #1 just because of all of the tools. And he may still get to that level. But Gibson is looking good, high ceiling, pitcher, and a sure thing… hard to overlook that.

good point on Kepler, Arcia… might be that Kepler was paid more. Might be that Kepler is still an unknown (not fair, but to be fair). I really like Arcia and like a few others, he should probably be higher. There were a lot considered… danny ortiz is certainly one to watch this year after he missed all of last year.

I had Lobanov in the 40s somewhere, I think. He could be higher too. I’m curious what direction they go with him. Start or relief?

Good list, Seth. One can argue back and forth about these lists, but really it is pointless 🙂 One thing: Sano should not be listed as SS. He has been playing 3B (and DH in one game) in the DSL and I would really doubt that he will see much time at SS in the minors (or in the majors). The only guy I would argue about is Lobanov. Compare him with Ibarra (I know that Ibarra is a swing man, so the comparison might not be totally fair) but Lobanov is a year younger and this season has been more successful than Ibarra in a level higher than Ibarra. The other general comment I have: Glad to see that you included a couple of current DSL prospects, but got to be more in the top 50 list, because they deserve it 🙂

You made a point that Hermann skipped a level indicating that the Twins believe Herrmann shows promise similar to Tosoni a few years ago. My point it’s due to C injuries above A+, or crowded at A, or that’s he’s 23 and played at a major college like Bullock.
I would say the Twins think more highly of Bullock (drafted much higher) and he’s doing much better at A+ than Herrmann.
A high end reliever is worth much more than a run of the mill corner OF/back-up C.
Probably goes back to your struggles with ranking relievers.

Great list. Not that I am saying he should be listed, but what about Wander Guillen?

Interesting to see some changes based on actual play vs. the winter-time wishful hoping for some of these guys. I’m really pulling for Deolis; partly to help vindicate the Santana trade, but also because he is a great prospect.

-Revere at #9 now this is just getting silly….
-Hendriks at #14 its OK with me/ but I prefer him around #10 or even in the top 10
-and Gutierrez and Slama at #16 and #30 = they should be more like 10/12 and 15/16 ….
– Kyle Waldrop I was surprised to see in the late 30’s

Guys too high are : #6 Angel Morales the dude has NO plate discipline, i don’t care if he’s FASTER than Carlos Gomez its very possible he’s not ever going to get to AA …

#7 Joe Benson, i agree he should be just outside or even in the top 10 but this is a little excessive… IMO just a few spots too high….

#23 Blayne Weller, He should be closer to Tonkin, what has he DONE to warrant a ranking higher than Bullock?

Dozier, the shortstop at Fort Myers should be on your list. He hits and plays good defense. He started in Beloit, and has hit well since his promotion to High A ball. I suspect that Dozier will continue to hit well, and he might be a candidate for promotion to AA ball, where that New Britain team still reaks when they should have been wreaking havoc on opponents.

I think it is way too early to be moving Gibson to the “can’t miss” category. For one thing, it really isn’t true for any pitching prospect. The step up to the big leagues is huge for pitchers. Aside from that, Gibson hasn’t pitched enough to know whether he is improving or just a polished college pitcher on the fast track … to AAA. Has everyone forgotten Adam Johnson?

I think there is reason to be excited about Gibson, but no more excited than when he was drafted.

Ten Top Prospects, in no particular order and excluding any rookies on the current roster (Butera, Burnett and Valencia):

Revere
Revere will add some power as he matures. But he is going to be a guy whose speed and bat make him a threat at the top of the order. He still has work to do on defense and he will have to learn to compensate for a less-than-stellar arm. But he will probably be ready to help as a callup this fall and maybe take over a spot in the outfield next spring if there is an opening.

Hicks
The next Willie Mays? Maybe. But he is very raw and most players even with his tools never develop them into the major league skills that make them stars. Like Sano below, you can’t ignore his upside.

Sano
Who knows? Sano looks like he will be a third baseman. He is a long way from the big leagues. But he has an upside that can’t be ignored.

Ramos
I think Ramos downside is a major league catcher with pop in his bat. His upside may be challenging Joe Mauer as the best catcher in Twins history. His likely outcome is somewhere well short of that, but still a potential star.

Plouffe
Plouffe has demonstrated once again why patience is required with young prospects who move through the system on talent, rather than polished skills. He may turn out to be one of those guys whose defense is questionable at shortstop but whose bat doesn’t play at third base. Or he could turn out to be a shortstop who hits like a third baseman.

Gibson
Gibson is doing everything the Twins expected when they drafted him. He was a polished college pitcher and the only question is how he will do as he moves up the ladder. So far so good, but it is still very early.

Guerra
He is 21, 3 years younger than any other pitcher at AAA. He has a lot of filling out to do as he matures and when he does watch out.

Gutierrez
He has been very inconsistent. But then, he is trying to add the pitches he will need to start in the big leagues. At worst, I think he will be a solid major league reliever. At best, his sinker could make him a one or two starter depending on how is other pitches develop.

Manship
I think Manship is likely to be a mediocre major league starter. He will probably still get the first call if the Twins need another starter.

Swarzak*
Swarzak is not rookie eligible, but I think he remains a top pitching prospect. If he starts to show he is ready, he could move ahead of Manship if there is an opening on the big league roster.

Again – there is no particular order to this list. I think these are the players who are most likely to have decent major league careers.

Do you realize that RHP outnumber LHP by a 23 to 3 margin? I know quality lefties are hard to find. But that big a disparity is ridiculous and troubling. Even worse, none of the lefties made the Top 25 this time due to Robertson’s big decline. Do you have a theory as to why the Twins system is so weak when it comes to lefties (and so strong from the right side)? Should they target LHP in the draft this year?

[…] consistently ranked in the #10-20 range of Twins prospect lists over the past couple season (Seth: 17th in 2010, down to 32nd in 2011, Gleeman: 14th in 2011), although his prospect status has suffered after he […]