Wednesday, February 24, 2010

Crisis Coming . . . Here?

After an unprecedented meeting of the Turkish Armed Forces on Tuesday, all eyes are turned on the state of civil-military relations after the most recent Ergenekon developments. The Turkish Armed Forces (TSK) released a statement, characterizing the detentions as a "serious situation." Over 40 people were detained on Monday in the most wide-reaching Ergenekon sweep yet, and at least seven have been formally charged in connection to "Operation Sledgehammer," revealed by Taraf last month. According to Hurriyet, "Ergenekon prosecutors have now detained all top commanders from 2003 and 2004 except Hilmi Özkök, the former chief of General Staff" (for an accounting of Monday's detentions, click here.)

President Gul is said to be organizing a meeting between Prime Minister Erdogan, recently returned from Spain, and Chief of General Staff Ilker Basbug. Erdogan has refrained from personally criticizing the unauthorized TSK meeting, but deputy Salih Kapusuz remarked, “Everything that happens and is said today will be brought onto the country’s agenda in the future, too." There are rumors that all top commanders could resign, though as Mehmet Ali Birand concludes, what that means is unclear.

Meanwhile, though Supreme Court of Appeals Chief Prosecutor Abdurrahman Yalcinkaya has dismissed stories that there is a closure case pending against the AKP, a closure case could well be in the making and would only further de-stabilize the situation. Coming on the heels of last week's judicial showdown, Turkey's political situation is, indisputably, remarkably tense. In Spain, Prime Minister Erdogan promised to submit constitutional amendments pertaining to judicial reform to referendum if a compromise with the CHP and MHP cannot be reached. Meanwhile, opposition parties have called for early elections, claiming such a move will help relieve tensions.

UPDATE I (2/25) -- Following a meeting this morning between President Gul, Prime Minister Erdogan, and Chief of Staff Ilker Basbug, the three leaders declared that recent tensions would be solved within the constitutional order of things. At the moment, that order still allows closure of the AKP should a case be filed, or any other number of scenarios.

Also, the Christian Science Monitor's Scott Peterson takes a look at the recent arrests and Tuesday's meeting, providing a good summary of the context in which all of this is happening.

UPDATE II (2/25) -- Two recent columns from two very different opinion leaders warrant a reading in that both agree that what is essentially happening is a power between two elites -- one old, established, and orthodox; the other, newly risen, eager to challenge the powers that be, and equally rigid. Mehmet Ali Birand writes that "a great mutual psychological war is being fought," drawing on Babug's earlier statement that forces opposed to the military are waging psychological war against it (Taraf, for instance).

Fellow Hurriyet Daily News columnist Mustafa Akyol writes about "polyarchy," which Akyol describes as a "system with more than one power center, and even a crude system of "checks and balances." Not to be confused with Robert Dahl's conception of democracy, this "polyarchy" is far from democratic -- a power struggle between elites with its own set of rules and logic that the public can only speculate on. Akyol's analysis does not go this far, but he does give the example of the "ascending role of the police in relation to the military." While writing that AKP is "nepotistic," "prone to authoritarianism and intolerance," and that "a Turkey totally dominated by the AKP would really not be fun - nor free and democratic," he endorses the new system over the old, declaring that "an ongoing struggle between opposing powers, is better than the previous one, which was a dominance of a single power." Akyol does not give much of a warrant for this, but its honesty is certainly striking.

UPDATE III (2/25) -- The AKP is sending two of its deputies to the parliament's disciplinary board following statements both made implying the Ergenekon case and recent arrests were about afflicting revenge. The referrals are presumably an attempt by the AKP to preempt the statements being used in the potential closure case. Should the disciplinary board expel the two deputies from parliament, the AKP would lose two MPs at a time when it is considering the risky move of bringing constitutional amendments to referendum.

UPDATE IV (2/26) -- Late on Thursday, three of those detained earlier this week were released, including top geneals Ibrahim Firtina and Ozden Ornek, former commanders of the Air Force and Navy respectively, and Ergin Saygun, former commander of the First Army. The releases were made based on their low flight risk, though prosecutors said the investigation will continue, keeping open the possibility of future arrest. Today 11 more were formally arrested and remanded into custody, including two active duty admirals and former General Cetin Dogan, who has made frequent appearances on Turkish televisionin recent weeks de-bunking the Ergenekon investigation. General Engin Alan, former head of the Specaial Forces, also appeared before the court. Meanwhile, in another sweep, 18 mostly active-duty juniors officers were detained. The total number of officers formally arrested and jailed this week was 31 out of a total of 67 detained.

UPDATE V (3/1) -- Two more officers were formally charged on Sunday. From Reuters:

The state-run news agency Anatolian said Colonel Huseyin Ozcoban, commander of the paramilitary gendarmerie force in the city of Konya, and Lieutenant Colonel Yusuf Kelleli were charged late on Sunday in an Istanbul court.

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An Introduction

Turkey is in a state of flux. Founded in 1923 amidst the ruins of the Ottoman Empire and very much a product of modern nation-state ideology, the emergence of Turkey is one of the great stories of the last century.

Although the Turkish state is still quite strong, an increasingly globalized, albeit incipient, civil society has come to challenge its hegemony and singular notions of "Turkishness." Growing numbers of Turks are demanding human rights reform and a more democratic society. At the same time, politics remains a largely elite affair, minority and cultural rights go largely unrecognized, nationalism remains a potently virulent force, and political stability is still a matter of concern. Unrest in the Kurdish southeast, anti-democratic maneuverings to curb civil liberties and close political parties, repression of political dissent, and a questionable human rights regime raise real concerns for the future of Turkish democracy.

A candidate for accession into the European Union, Turkey stands at a crossroads—will it move toward the postmodernity of Europe, or will it forge an ultimately separate path? Will Turkey provide one of the amazing political stories of the twenty-first century, and what does its political development and changing geopolitics have to say about the future of world politics?

About Me

Ragan Updegraff has closely followed Turkish politics for over six years, working as a political consultant, journalist, and analyst along the way. His work has appeared in the Journal of Democracy and the Jerusalem Post, among various other publications, and he has been interviewed by Voice of America, The Guardian, and The Telegraph. In 2009-2010, he was a United States Fulbright Research Fellow and studied the impact that Turkish legal reforms undertaken as part of Turkey's European accession process were having in transforming Turkey's relations with minority groups, in particular its nationalist Kurdish population. He also studied EU assistance to Turkish NGOs working on minority right issues. He continues to closely monitor events in Turkey from Washington, D.C.
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