Apologies for missing out on a writeup for UFC 108 due to a hectic holiday schedule. Results of 3-1 for +5.46 units on UFC 107 brought my public picks record to 95-75 for +28.055 units since UFC 75.

As usual, except where otherwise indicated, all lines below are current market lines from MMAjunkie.com’s recommended sportsbook, Bodog. It’s easy to open an account at Bodog; you can fund your Bodog account with as little as $25 and bet as little as $1 on fights. Until you’ve experienced the added excitement of betting on MMA, you really haven’t watched MMA. Having your heart race when your fighter steps into the cage – even if you’ve only got a few dollars in play – is a feeling like none other. (But you should only wager you’d feel comfortable losing. Be sure to keep it fun.)

If you’re interested in learning more about betting on MMA, be sure to check out our MMAjunkie.com MMA Wagering Guide series, which allows even the most novice bettor to be a long-term winner wagering on MMA. After the up-and-down swings of the past two events, I’ll point out especially the article in the series about Bankroll Management. You can also stay up to date with the latest MMA and UFC odds directly via our UFC Odds page.

For those interested in my latest updates on MMA betting, you can check me out on Twitter at twitter.com/performify. Also, be sure to check the MMAjunkie.com MMA Wagering forum for a lot of good discussion on upcoming MMA events from a variety of handicappers. For those fans serious about making profits on MMA wagering, this is the place to discuss strategy.

First, there is the superficial. This is the first fight in which both competitors are active members of the UFC Hall of Fame, and both fighters are elder statesmen of the sport (Couture at 46, Coleman at 45). Both were also strong amateur wrestlers; Coleman was an NCAA champion in 1988 and an Olympian in 1992, and Couture was a two-time NCAA championship runner-up and a four-time alternate for the Olympics. Both are pioneers of the sport; Coleman was the UFC’s first heavyweight champion, and Couture was the first to earn the title multiple times.

Both fighters come into the fight off a victory earned after two straight losses: Couture, off a razor-thin (and to some, controversial) decision victory over Brandon Vera at UFC 105 after losses to Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira and Brock Lesnar, Coleman after an upset of Stephan Bonnar at UFC 100 after losses to Mauricio Rua at UFC 93 and Fedor Emelianenko at PRIDE 32.

Couture and Coleman have faced off before – not in MMA, but at the 1989 Olympic Wrestling Festival in Stillwater, Okla. There, Coleman defeated Couture by a single point in a close match.

The two were actually scheduled to face off in the octagon prior. The fight was booked for UFC 17; however, Couture pulled out of the fight to rest a rib injury before a national wrestling tournament.

Despite the dozens of similarities, this fight will be dictated most by two vast discrepancies between the fighters. First, Coleman’s skills have not evolved beyond using his incredible strength and wrestling to take opponents down and ground and pound them into submission. Couture is, by contrast, extremely well rounded and can work effectively from his feet and in the clinch. Coleman’s one-dimensionality means that he rarely can set up his takedowns and is extremely limited if his wrestling is neutralized. Couture should be able to use his wrestling skills generally to neutralize Coleman’s, and “The Natural” has a massive advantage on the feet and in the clinch.

Secondly, Couture likely has a huge advantage in cardio. Coleman has never been known for elite cardio, especially so as he’s aged. Couture’s cardio is legendary, and he should most certainly have an advantage the longer the fight goes.

The current betting line gives Couture an 80 percent chance to win the fight. Despite that, do not be surprised if the first round of this fight is surprisingly competitive; Coleman’s strength and wrestling should make for an interesting first round. Beyond the first, I expect Couture’s edges in striking and cardio to become more and more significant and should eventually lead to a late-fight TKO stoppage.

I don’t really see a side worth betting here. Couture lost the Vera fight in my book, and as such, I think it’s extremely hard to bet on a 46-year-old fighter as an 80 percent favorite when he has effectively lost three straight fights – even if he is fighting someone equally aged. Likewise, I really can’t see Coleman as a good underdog bet; Coleman doesn’t have the tools to finish fights, so unless he can unexpectedly stun Couture and get a TKO stoppage with ground and pound, his only expected path to victory is to win the first and second rounds with takedowns and survive the third round. Possible? Sure, but nothing like the 25 percent (or greater) chance he’d need in order to make him a good bet at the current odds.

My official prediction is Couture by TKO over an exhausted Coleman in the third, but I won’t be betting the fight at the current odds.

Chael Sonnen (23-10-1 MMA, 3-3 UFC) is an excellent wrestler, evidenced by his selection as an NCAA All-American in wrestling at the University of Oregon and as a U.S. Olympic Team alternate in Greco-Roman. Sonnen trains with Team Quest and is riding a two-fight win streak with victories over Yushin Okami at UFC 104 and Dan Miller at UFC 98.

Sonnen’s size, strength and wrestling ability are all significant assets in the octagon. His fight plan should be relatively simple: utilize his wrestling and top control and grind out a decision without exposing himself to a submission or knockout. Sonnen is not a finisher; 55 percent of his wins have come by decision, but more importantly, he hasn’t finished a fight in the “big leagues” ever (all his finishes came in smaller, regional promotions, and most of them came early in his career). In 10 fights in the UFC and WEC, Sonnen is 6-4, with all six wins by decision and all four losses by submission.

Sonnen’s lack of finishing prowess is further compounded by his opponent’s skill on the other side of the table. Nate “The Great” Marquardt (29-8-2 MMA, 8-2 UFC) has been finished only three times in 39 fights (via TKO by Anderson Silva at UFC 73, via guillotine choke by Ricardo Almeida in Pancrase in 2003, and via early-career submission by Genki Sudo in Pancrase in 1999). In other words, Sonnen winning this fight by stoppage is exceedingly unlikely.

Marquardt is exceptionally strong, extremely well rounded, a good striker and also has great wrestling himself. He should have a significant edge in the standup game, so much so that Sonnen likely can’t look to trade with Marquardt at all. Sonnen has to close distance and get the fight to the ground every time or else he’ll be on the receiving end of a knockout finish pretty promptly.

Training under Greg Jackson, Marquardt not only gets the benefit of arguably the top camp in MMA but access to training against some of its best fighters. Most importantly for this fight, he trains with and against fantastic wrestlers, most notably Rashad Evans and Georges St-Pierre. Training with these two gives Marquardt the perfect opponents to prepare for Sonnen’s wrestling skills and probable gameplan, and it should provide yet another meaningful edge for Marquardt in the fight.

I certainly expect Marquardt to be taken down in this fight. Against Leites, Marquardt was taken down multiple times, and Sonnen is a significantly superior wrestler to the Brazilian. However, as in the Leites fight, expect Marquardt to be excellent at tying up his opponent, and at creating scrambles and escapes (even if Sonnen’s top game is quite a bit better than Leites’).

With a significant edge in jiu-jitsu skills, also expect Marquardt to threaten with submissions while on the ground. While it’s been several years since Marquardt submitted anyone off his back in MMA, it’s not due to lack of skills; it’s more reflective that he’s rarely been put and held there. Marquardt absolutely has the jiu jitsu to finish this fight from his back; not only are more than 51 percent of his career wins by way of submission, he has multiple submission victories off his back in his career (both triangle chokes and armbars).

This fight opened with Marquardt as low as -250 on some sites, and I loved this line at that price. For those coming along now, in my opinion, most of the value has been bet out of the line. As such it’s hard to recommend any significant play at the current odds.

Mike Swick (-200) vs. Paulo Thiago (+185)

Brazilian Paulo Thiago (12-1 MMA, 2-1 UFC) works as a special-operations police officer in Brazil when he’s not fighting. The jiu-jitsu black belt is primarily a grappler but has gotten increased respect for his striking after he landed a stunning punch on the chin of an overaggressive Josh Koscheck in his debut at UFC 95.

While Thiago does have a background in boxing from his teenage years, this was the only finish by strikes in his four year MMA career. And despite his interview assurances otherwise, I believe this is less of an indication of significant hidden striking talent and more of an example that “anything can happen” in a sport in which gifted athletes punch each other in the face.

After dropping Koscheck, Thiago faced Jon Fitch at UFC 100. There, Fitch was able to easily control Thiago on route to a unanimous decision victory. Thiago rebounded with a unanimous decision victory over Jacob Volkmann at UFC 106.

This fight originally was scheduled as a rematch for Thiago against Koscheck. However, “Kos” was forced out of the fight with a training injury in late December. Mike “Quick” Swick (14-3 MMA, 9-2 UFC), a teammate of Koscheck’s at American Kickboxing Academy, steps in instead on about six weeks’ notice.

Swick is a speedy, aggressive striker who is a veteran of the first season of “The Ultimate Fighter.” He has solid wrestling skills and especially fantastic takedown defense. His striking has progressed nicely over his career, and he’s developed solid counterpunching techniques. Swick comes into this fight looking to rebound from a disappointing decision loss to Dan Hardy at UFC 105.

Thiago has solid power and a good chin, as evidenced by the fight with Koscheck, but look back at his striking reel and you’ll see that he tends to drop his hands and leave himself open when he throws far too frequently. As such, I believe that Swick’s technical punching ability and handspeed should be able to capitalize on holes in Thiago’s below-average striking defense unless it’s significantly improved since we’ve seen him most recently.

Likewise, I believe Swick’s solid takedown defense should present a bit of a problem for Thiago to get the fight to the ground. Swick also has a good advantage in this fight in that he’s been able to prepare with teammates Koscheck and Fitch. Fitch, especially, brings the experience of both how to beat Thiago as well as having spent a full three rounds with him.

If Swick can execute his likely gameplan to dictate the location of the fight, I expect him to cruise to a relatively one-sided decision victory by winning the striking exchanges and fending off takedowns. In the event that Thiago can regularly drag the fight to the floor, he can certainly win on points even if he’s unable to finish via submission. However, I think Swick is a decent play at the current odds despite taking the fight on relatively short notice and coming off a loss. Swick via decision.

Miller (11-2 MMA, 3-1 UFC) is moderately well rounded with some Muay Thai skills, but he is primarily a wrestler and a grappler — he only has one TKO victory in his career, and that was a corner stoppage.

Demian Maia (11-1 MMA, 5-1 UFC) is an elite-level Brazilian jiu-jitsu fighter holds a second-degree black belt, and trains with Wanderlei Silva’s Wand Fight Team. Maia has a decorated grappling record that includes winning the 77 kg to 87 kg division of the 2007 ADCC Submission Wrestling World Championship (after placing second in the division in 2005). Maia’s long list of BJJ credentials also includes his status as a three-time World Cup champion, a two-time world champion, and the 2006 Pan-American champion.

Miller is likely out of his league on the ground against Maia. His obvious gameplan is to try to use his wrestling to keep the fight standing. Maia has demonstrated solid ability to get the fight to the ground in his recent fights either by pulling guard or by taking down his opponent from the clinch, so it will be interesting to see how much success Miller has in trying to keep the fight standing.

I expect this fight to be disappointing for fans who are looking for a jiu-jitsu clinic. Miller likely will want nothing to do with Maia on the ground, and I expect instead this to be a drawn-out battle of attempted and defended takedowns, and attempts to stall on the ground to force a standup.

Miller has serious grappling chops, which are likely sufficient to defend a lot of submission attempts. Journeyman Jason MacDonald was, after all, able to fend off submission after submission from Maia for the better part of three full rounds before finally succumbing. With the likely stalemate of takedown vs. defense, stalling on the ground, and below-average striking skills from both parties, don’t expect this to win any significant favor with the crowd.

MMA’s inconsistent judging criteria make this a dangerous fight to bet in my opinion. In the event that the fight does end up a virtual stalemate, judges still far too frequently undervalue submission attempts and score for the fighter on top. To me, that risk, as well as the risk of Maia being gunshy in his first fight back after a brutal knockout, make this a no play for me.

Serra is a BJJ black belt but suffers from the same mysterious disease as Jorge Gurgel and cannot use his grappling in the cage or he apparently will die a sudden and violent death. That’s the only explanation that makes sense to me. Or maybe a Gypsy curse. Either way, it’s been eight years since Serra’s most recent submission victory. Since, he’s 4-5 with three wins via decision and the vaunted TKO victory over St-Pierre at UFC 69.

Trigg was a standout wrestler at the University of Oklahoma and a four-time All-American. His wrestling skills led to a 13-year successful MMA career and a one-time top-10 ranking at welterweight.

Trigg is an experienced veteran and has a significant edge in wrestling skill, in size, and in strength. Look for Serra to come out guns blazing and try to make this a sloppy standup affair since he’ll likely have little answer for Trigg’s top game on the ground.

I’ve written about Serra several times before while saying that I think he’ll be overvalued from a betting perspective for the rest of his career due to the St-Pierre victory, and I think that’s the situation here. Serra’s also being overvalued due to a competitive fight against Hughes. However, I think you need to take that fight with a grain of salt since the uncalled Serra headbutt in the first round was really the only thing that kept that fight reasonably competitive.

I think Trigg is worth a decent play here as a small underdog and should control Serra en route to a unanimous decision victory if he can avoid getting his chin checked.

Justin Buchholz (8-4 MMA, 1-3 UFC) has limited takedown and submission defense and should prove short work for “The Ultimate Fighter 6″ winner Mac Danzig (18-7-1 MMA, 2-3 UFC). Danzig is being gifted a favorable matchup after dropping three straight fights, and he should have little trouble here. Danzig should also have the edge on the feet, and as such, should have little trouble closing space, setting up a takedown, and finishing the fight on the floor.

Brazilian Ronys Torres (14-1 MMA, 0-0 UFC) makes his UFC debut against Melvin Guillard (22-8-2 MMA, 5-4 UFC). Guillard is a strong wrestler who is strong, athletic and explosive. He also possesses decent offensive tools but has shown a real weakness in the area of submission defense and fight IQ. Torres is a well-regarded BJJ black belt who trains at Nova Uniao under Andre Pederneiras. Torres’ most notable career victory to date is a first-round submission victory over Chute Boxe fighter (and PRIDE veteran) Luiz Azeredo in the Brazilian “Jungle Fight” organization in mid-2008.

Guillard has a significant edge on the feet and has decent takedown defense, but as soon as Torres can get the fight to the floor – and he will be able to – he becomes a huge favorite. This is a high-volatility play since Guillard can certainly turn out Torres’ lights with one shot. But Torres should win this fight a reasonable percentage of the time after dragging Guillard to the floor to make it worth the high-risk, reasonable-reward play.

For those who have never seen Torres, here’s a training video from intheguard.tv

Phillipe Nover (+100) vs. Rob Emerson (-122)

Both Phillipe Nover (5-2-1 MMA, 0-2 UFC) and Rob Emerson (8-8 MMA, 2-2 UFC) are coming off consecutive losses: Nover to Efrain Escudero and Kyle Bradley, Emerson to Kurt Pellegrino and Rafael dos Anjos. Nover has been training with Xtreme Couture for this fight, but it’s hard to take him seriously after he was so heavily hyped and then has looked so sub-par in the cage. With Nover such a huge unknown at this point, I have no strong opinions on this fight, and I’m especially not willing to risk any money on either fighter.

Wrestling for Penn State, Phil Davis finished his collegiate career with a 116-20 record as a four-time All-American, two-time Big Ten Champion, and the 2008 NCAA national champion at 197 pounds. A highly touted prospect thanks to his wrestling skills, Davis is still inexperienced in MMA with only four fights – all of which were first-round victories.

Former WEC fighter Brian Stann (8-2 MMA, 2-1 UFC) is a dynamic but undisciplined striker. Stann won his first five fights in the WEC in dramatic fashion before he was badly beaten by Steve Cantwell at WEC 35. After the loss, Stann jumped to the UFC and was submitted by Krzysztof Soszynski at UFC 97. Since then, Stann avenged his loss to Cantwell at UFC Fight Night 19 and picked up his second consecutive unanimous-decision victory by edging Rodney Wallace at The Ultimate Fighter 10 Finale.

Soszynski demonstrated that he was easily able to take Stann down and pass his guard at will. Davis may not have much experience, but there’s little reason to think he can’t do so well here as well. Stann is a huge step up in competition, but the skillsets match up nicely, and Davis should have a successful debut against a solid name here.

Joey Beltran (+375) vs. Rolles Gracie (-475)

Rolles Gracie (3-0 MMA, 0-0 UFC) was supposed to face off against Mostapha Al Turk here but instead faces Joey Beltran (8-3 MMA, 0-0 UFC), who takes the fight on basically a week’s notice and with just three weeks since his previous fight.

Beltran, a longtime Total Combat and King of the Cage fighter, enters the UFC with six wins in his past seven fights, which included a first-round TKO of UFC vet Sherman Pendergarst at a May 2009 Bellator Fighting Championships event. He’s posted stoppages (nine knockouts and one submission) in all 10 of his career wins. One such knockout came on Jan. 16, when Beltran stopped recent UFC castoff Houston Alexander via strikes in the second round of a 5150 Combat League event.

Gracie, a second-degree Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt and four-time Pan-American champion, is widely regarded as one of the best heavyweight jiu-jitsu players in the world and should have very little trouble stopping Beltran, who is a brawler with poor cardio. Expect this to be a quick submission clinic that we’ll hopefully get to see promoted to the broadcast with any luck.

Tim Hague (+160) vs. Chris Tuchscherer (-185)

Canadian Tim Hague holds a blue belt in Brazilian jiu jitsu and has a 10-2 professional record after losing to Todd Duffee in just seven seconds in his most recent fight at UFC 102. In his UFC debut prior, Hague defeated Pat Barry by first round submission. In that fight, Hague absorbed a surprising amount of punishment in the opening minute before getting the fight to the ground and slapping on a guillotine choke.

Training at Minnesota Martial Arts Academy under Greg Nelson and alongside Brock Lesnar and Sean Sherk, Chris Tuchscherer holds a 17-2 MMA record. A two-time NCAA Division II All-American wrestler for Minnesota State University, Tuchscherer tried out for “The Ultimate Fighter 10″ last year. However, instead of a spot on the UFC’s reality series, he earned a UFC contract and a direct path into the UFC’s steadily improving heavyweight division.

During a five-year career, “The Crowbar” has lost just twice. His first loss was to Travis Wiuff in the finale of YAMMA Pit Fighting’s same-day eight-man heavyweight tournament in early 2008. The smaller Wiuff used ground control to ride out the three-round unanimous-decision win. In his UFC debut at UFC 102, Tuchscherer lost to Gabriel Gonzaga after getting blasted with perhaps the worst low blow in UFC history since Joe San.

Tuchscherer has solid wrestling skills but little other offense, so look for him to execute a blanketing lay-and-pray technique en route to a unanimous decision victory.

Performify’s Picks for UFC 109

Mike Swick (-200) : 1 unit to win .5 units

Frank Trigg (+125) : .4 units to win .5 units

Ronys Torres (-113) : 1.13 units to win 1 unit

Rolles Gracie (-475) : 4.75 units to win 1 unit

For complete coverage of UFC 109, stay tuned to the UFC Rumors section of MMAjunkie.com.

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