Early Sales Reckoner – June 2015

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We start June 2015 with Maruti-Suzuki dispatch data. The company has reported a 1.6% improvement in dispatches. Considering June 2014 dispatch volumes were 100k+, this is not a bad show.

The problem with a 100k monthly dispatch volume is that its a peak that would be crossed emphatically only when there is a strong customer pull from the market. As of now, the dispatches are more of a push by MSIL than a pull from the market.

At the segment level, dispatches in the Mini Segment were down 27.9% while those in the Compact segment were down 24.4%. Considering that we had a nearly opposite trend last month, this is more of an inventory play.

There was some moderation in the Ciaz dispatch numbers as well though the Ertiga keeps going strong. Meanwhile MSIL’s old Vans – Eeco and Omni – continue to print money.

Honda

Honda has had a stellar month as dispatches, at 18380 units, were up 12.65%. The growth was led from the front by the City and the Amaze also had strong dispatch numbers. However, there is a strong dip in the Mobilio numbers and Honda still seems to be facing niggles at the production end.

Update 1: Toyota & Mahindra

Mahindra and Toyota numbers have been released and both brands are in deep red. Mahindra still seems to be battling the slowdown in the traditional UV segment.

On the other hand Toyota Kirloskar, Toyota’s India arm, cited a six day plant shutdown (regular maintenance) on the slowdown in dispatches.

Update 2: Tata, GM, Ford and Hyundai Numbers

We now have numbers from these four OEMs as well. Tata has been on a recovery run for the last few years (Mayank Pareek effect?) and June was no different. Dispatch numbers jumped by nearly 30% over previous year.