Thursday, December 21, 2006

Get Gamm – Week One Basketball Previews It’s finally that time – time for the best game in town – college basketball. More specifically, Big Ten Conference basketball. Everything prior to this is a prolonged warm-up. Some cupcakes, some toughies – all in the name of prepping for two months of hard-nosed, physically tough, emotionally draining basketball. But, if you were still looking for the bowl picks, go here.

Each week through Big Ten play, we’ll pick all the conference games. Five of the games will get some analysis by myself and whomever “Gets Gamm” for the week prior. Picks are due by tip of the first game. So, without further ado…

Indiana at Ohio StateA classic battle to kick things off for the 2007 Big Ten slate. Indiana has been a bit of a head-scratcher so far but its losses have come to a very good Butler team, Duke and Kentucky. Kelvin Sampson is slowly getting his system into place and there is plenty of talent on his squad to win this game. However, the Ohio State freshmen have been even better than advertised thus far (in my opinion) and the Buckeyes are arguably more battle tested having played North Carolina and Florida – two legit national title contenders – on the road. If the two met again later in the season, in Bloomington, it might be another story. Ohio State 72 – Indiana 61

Penn State 65 – Northwestern 60

Illinois at MichiganAfter a rather soft pre-conference slate, this will be Michigan’s third game with a big-time opponent in less than two weeks. This isn’t the dominant Illinois team of recent memory but it is still a very good squad that is more battle tested than the Wolverines. That said, the home court edge in the Big Ten is huge. Always has been, always will be. This is a solid Michigan team with its sights set on a return to the NCAA Tournament. The best way to get going down that road is a solid start in conference play against a potential contender. In what might be the best game of the week, Michigan sends an early message. Michigan 69 – Illinois 67

Purdue 74 – Minnesota 63

Michigan State at IowaThese teams are surprising for their own reasons. Michigan State has battled backcourt injuries to a very good 13-2 start. Iowa has struggled to find itself after losing the heart and soul (Brunner and Hoerner) from last year. The Hawkeyes beat in-state rival Iowa State handily but got blown out by Drake and lost to Northern Iowa in addition to Alabama and Villanova, among others. If Michigan State is healthy, this could be a key road win for the young Spartans. Carver-Hawkeye is no picnic for anyone. This will be a down to the wire battle. Michigan State 67 – Iowa 63

Purdue 71 – Penn State 64

Ohio State at IllinoisMerry Christmas Illinois – your gift is that you get to start out at Michigan and then play Ohio State a few days later. The only thing worse would have been starting out with Wisconsin and OSU. Nonetheless, the Illini are battle tested and have more than enough athleticism to hang with Ohio State. Let’s not forget that the Buckeyes are a young team, playing several freshman throughout each game. But let’s also not forget that OSU has played in tough environments (at UNC and Florida). Winning on the road is tough and Illinois comes in with its backs against the wall. In an instant classic… Illinois 78 – Ohio State 77 in OT.

Michigan 63 – Northwestern 56

Wisconsin 81 – Minnesota 60

Michigan State at IndianaSomeone running the scheduler at the Big Ten offices doesn’t like Illinois or Michigan State. The Illini start out with two tough ones, but the Spartans get two tough ones on the road. This one may grind into more of a football game with two Heathcote-taught coaches pacing the sidelines. Points will be at a premium when these teams meet due to the toughness on defense and the glass of both teams. Michigan State could certainly steal one in Bloomington but hasn’t had a ton of success at Indiana over the years and to win two straight on the road against good teams is virtually impossible in this league. Indiana gets to .500 with a home opening victory. Indiana 65 – Michigan State 60

Tuesday, December 19, 2006

Get Gamm – Bowl Style It’s really hard for me to believe that football season is just about done. I know technically it has been done for a month now, but I mean bowl games and all. Seems like I was just researching teams for my preseason reviews. By virtue of “winning” my own contest, I will be picking solo for the bowls but there is still very much a race going on to see who wins the annual bragging rights. Picks are due before kickoff of the Insight and Champs Sports Bowls, which take place on December 29 at 8pm Eastern.

Insight BowlMinnesota vs. Texas TechSay it with me now – Minnesota is appearing in their fifth straight bowl, seventh in ten years after going to five, count ‘em five, in school history prior to this run. I don’t know which is more impressive; the current streak of the way the Golden Gophers romped through the last three games to become bowl eligible. A finger tip saved their season against North Dakota State and now Coach Mason and his squad have their sights set on another bowl victory.

That won’t be an easy task given the opponent, the potent Red Raiders of Texas Tech. Texas Tech finished the regular season 7-5, 4-4 in the Big 12. The Red Raiders had their share of competitive games this year, including an early season win over Texas A&M and tough losses to Texas and Oklahoma, but Tech also got hammered by a really bad Colorado team. The Red Raiders will look to pass all over Minnesota while the Golden Gophers will look to pound the ball on the ground, control the clock and attack with the opportune pass play. Without All Big Ten tight end Matt Spaeth, Minnesota will have a tougher time with the ball control part and we all know that the Gopher defense doesn’t exactly scare teams. Both teams can and will score, but Texas Tech pulls this one out. Texas Tech 38 – Minnesota 33.Champs Sports BowlPurduevs. MarylandAnother first time match-up between teams should be an interesting one to watch. Purdue can be explosive on offense but has been a nightmare on defense for much of the season – particularly against the run. Maryland has struggled offensively but beat perennial powers Florida State and Miami-FLA (though both barely got to bowl eligibility this season) and also nipped Clemson and plays tough defense. Come bowl season, in the wake of four or five week layoffs, the team with the better defense usually wins out.

But don’t discount Purdue’s chances. The ACC was down this season and Purdue played six bowl bound teams. Then again, the gold and black didn’t face either of the two Big Ten big boys – Michigan or Ohio State. What it really boils down to, no pun intended, is which Curtis Painter shows up. The one who led the Boilermakers to the NCAA’s 10th rated offense or the one who threw 18 interceptions? And will Kory Sheets help Purdue snap out of its ground game funk? Meanwhile, senior Sam Hollenbach helped his team overachieve and the Terrapin ground game should be able to control clock against the 112th rated run defense (out of 119 teams). In bowl games, as I indicated, the old adage that defense wins games often holds true. Maryland 20 – Purdue 16.

Alamo BowlIowa vs. TexasThis game often competes with the Holiday Bowl as best non-New Year’s Day bowl in the lot. This year, the battle for San Antonio has two big time programs that didn’t meet lofty preseason expectations. Iowa struggled through October and November and limps in having lost a very Michigan State like five of its last six. Texas put an early loss to Ohio State behind them and went on a run but lost its last two and played itself out of the Big Twelve title game and a big bucks BCS berth. Don’t let the recent struggles keep you from tuning in however, as this game could be much better than statistics, records and regular season finishes indicate.

Iowa is led by senior quarterback Drew Tate. Tate and his offensive line have been dinged up all season and it was a very underwhelming finish to an otherwise brilliant career. If the Hawkeyes are to pull the upset, Tate needs to be on his “A” game and Iowa needs to be well balanced. Texas is led by freshman quarterback Colt McCoy – if he is healthy enough to go. A severely pinched nerve has had the quarterback off and on the shelf during the recent slide and he needs to be a go to be sure that the ‘horns can fire on all cylinders. I like a healthy Iowa team to have a great shot in this one, but the fact is, Iowa is really banged up. Texas has too many weapons for Iowa to overcome, though this will be a tighter contest than many of the experts have it billed to be. Texas 31 – Iowa 23.

Outback BowlPenn State vs. TennesseeAnother case where the Big Ten gets to play a team that is just a play or two away from being a BCS bowler. Penn State was a solid but unspectacular 8-4 this season. Its losses came at Notre Dame, Ohio State and Wisconsin and home against Michigan. Yes, that list includes three BCS teams and one who would be in without the “only two per league rule” but Penn State also had to escape with wins against average Minnesota and disappointing Michigan State. Tennessee, meanwhile, lost to Florida by one, lost to LSU on a last second score and to SEC Title contender Arkansas on the road. The Vols hammered Cal and Georgia and overcame plenty of injuries to put up nine wins.

This is a game where the Penn State defense will have to step up and win it with big plays. The Volunteers should be healthy and back to their explosive ways on the offensive side of the ball. The Nittany Lion secondary will be tested by Ainge and Meachem and you can bet that Tennessee will scheme away from Paul Posluszny. On offense, Penn State needs to get consistency out of the ground game and some big plays from Anthony Morelli. Unfortunately it just isn’t the Big Ten’s year when it comes to the bowl match-ups. None of them are particularly favorable up to and including this game. It wouldn’t be a miracle for PSU to win but it will take a near perfect performance and I just don’t see that happening. Tennessee 27 – Penn State 17.

Capital One BowlWisconsin vs. ArkansasSpare me the fact that Wisconsin only faced one ranked opponent en route to a record-setting 11-win season. The Badgers are more BCS worthy than Wake Forest and Boise State for sure, maybe even more than Notre Dame. But alas, a conference cannot send three schools to monopolize the much bandied about system so the Badgers land in Orlando for what should be a very entertaining game with Arkansas. If you like rock ‘em, sock ‘em, old fashioned, hit you in the mouth football that is.

Call this one the PJ Hill and Darren McFadden show. Hill was named newcomer of the year in the Big Ten and is a bruising, load of a tailback. McFadden was runner-up (by several hundred miles) in the Heisman race and oh by the way takes some snaps as quarterback as well. The Razorbacks came back strong from the season opening blowout loss to USC and were two close losses to LSU and Florida away from spending the season in Glendale instead. It is true that the Badgers had a soft-ish slate, but to go 7-1 in the Big Ten and win 11 games, you have to be doing something right. The difference in this will be who can get it done through the air. I like John Stocco over Casey Dick any day in a passing game. The Big Ten finally gets off the schnide… Wisconsin 27 – Arkansas 24.

Rose BowlMichigan vs. USCI know that fans of both schools wanted to be playing their last game of the year one week later in Glendale, but truly, is there a better, more classic bowl match-up anywhere in the 32-game slate this season than in the Granddaddy of them All? USC is young but great. Michigan is seasoned and even better. Both had their way with Notre Dame and other ranked opponents but both lost tough road games against their arch-rivals, that – well – put them right here in Pasadena for New Year’s. Michigan should take heart though, if OSU slips in the title game and the Wolverines beat USC, there’s a really good chance that the maize and blue will do what USC did when the Trojans took out Michigan in the 2004 Rose Bowl – steal the AP Poll top spot and create a split championship.

First thing’s first though – taking care of business. USC has what seems like a five headed monster at tailback and two of the top receivers in the game. And, the Southern Cal defense isn’t too shabby either. Michigan has tremendous balance on offense, led by Mike Hart at tailback and the Henne to Manningham air connection. The real difference maker? Defense. Michigan simply has one of the toughest, most dominating defenses in college football. LaMarr Woodley is a monster as a rush defensive end and Leon Hall is a smothering defensive back. The Wolverines have not won a Rose Bowl since 1998 – coincidentally the last time Michigan shared a piece of the national championship. Michigan 24 – USC 23.

Tostitos National Championship GameOhio State vs. FloridaLet’s be brutally honest – on paper, this should be no contest. Florida is good and did run a gauntlet of opponents in the SEC, but Ohio State has been number one since day one and that probably won’t be changing. That Ohio State got here unscathed isn’t so much a story, how they did so is. Think to last year. The scarlet and gray had an amazing defense chock full of NFL draft picks. Nine of them departed, many landed in the first round of the NFL draft and yet this year’s defense might have been, as a unit, BETTER than last year’s! It isn’t a shock that the offense was impressive. Troy Smith was this year’s Vince Young. And is there a guy as reliable as Anthony Gonzalez? Or as potentially game-changing as Ted Ginn? And don’t forget Antonio Pittman, an oft over-looked but quite good tailback.

Yes, Florida (cough, clear throat) earned their way into the title game and cannot be overlooked, but come on, who scares you more – Smith or Leak? Ginn or Baker? Pittman or Wynn (or even Tebow)? This will be a game though, because that’s how it plays out. When a team should win big (see Miami the year OSU last won the title), they often get too big for their britches. The big difference is that Jim Tressel won’t let that attitude permeate his program. Florida will make this a game. Ohio State is going to have to fight off some major rust and the postseason awards banquet circuit. It’ll be close well into the second half, but in the end, the best team in the country all season long will prevail. Ohio State 33 – Florida 24.

Tuesday, December 12, 2006

’06 Football Season in Review… There is no other way to slice it – what a year. Three, count ‘em, THREE teams in the BCS Top Seven. One team in the BCS Championship Game. Another in the Rose Bowl. A third who perhaps should be in a BCS game but is left out because they just don’t want the Big Ten hogging the spotlight! The Heisman Trophy, Davey O’Brien, Walter Camp, Lombardi and more, all reside with players from the Big Ten.

I’ve said it before, I’ll say it again. You can have the SEC, ACC, Big East, Big 12, PAC 10 and all the others. Dollar for dollar, pound for pound, there is no great athletic conference in the land than the Big Ten. And, truth be told, we probably should be looking at an all Big Ten title game.

That said, it is time to take a look back at my predictions, how teams fared versus what I foretold and who gets the TFS hardware. Starting with worst, to first, here is a recap of what played out during the 2006 season.

To forget: Only two wins this season when I expected a breakthrough of sorts and one of those was against 1-AA Eastern Illinois. There were far more close games this year than last but still, two wins is not a step in the right direction.

The bright side: Illinois got a rare Big Ten win and in the process introduced the league to Juice Williams, who might just be the next great quarterback to garner an invitation to NYC for a December trophy presentation.

Grade: D-. Not an F if only because of Juice. This team has a long ways to go.

To forget: How about the last eight games and a quarter? Who knows what it would have meant to hold onto the gargantuan late game leads against Notre Dame but one thing is for certain, losing it likely was the difference between 4-8 and 8-4.

The bright side: Sorry John L. Smith, but the bright side is that MSU has a new coach. Mark Dantonio might not carry a lot of sizzle but he is just what the doctor ordered for this program. A little bit like Saban and a lot like Tressel, he should bring respectability back to East Lansing. Oh and the record comeback against NU was pretty cool too.

Grade: F. Flat out a failure. That’s why Smith was fired. This team had the starting talent to compete in the upper tier of the conference. Too bad it had the attitude to do no better than guide MSU to its worst Big Ten slate since the late 50s.

To forget: Northwestern’s season, in a nutshell, was the heartbreaking, jaw-dropping loss to Michigan State. These Wildcats were a scrappy bunch but you just don’t forget blowing a 38-3 second half lead at home.

The bright side: Northwestern was a little more competitive than I had them pegged to be and really should have squeezed out at least one more win. The team was young and the strong finish bodes well for next season.

Grade: C. Realistically, you just couldn’t expect more out of this team. Not with the loss of Coach Walker over the summer and the overall inexperience. The good news is there are plenty of players coming back and the nice finish could mean a better season is in store in 2007.

To forget: In retrospect, the loss to Ohio State showed that perhaps Iowa had all of its season’s eggs in that basket. From the 4-0 start prior, Iowa went 2-6 to close the season, including an inexplicable two more losses at home, one of which came at the hands of Northwestern.

The bright side: Despite a forgettable season, Iowa gets to go bowling against a very good Texas team in a state where it really recruits well. A season like this takes the black and gold off the radar screen and let’s them sneak up on opponents once more in 2007.

Grade: F. I know it sounds harsh, but hey, I had this team representing the Big Ten in the Rose Bowl. Drew Tate never got his game back to the levels he flashed as a sophomore and junior and Iowa just never got it going on offense.

To forget: Indiana will spend its entire off-season pointing to two games that were the difference between the school’s first bowl bid since 1993 and another holiday season at home. Losses to 1-AA Southern Illinois and then UConn kept Indiana from a huge step forward. That said, so did a lambasting at Minnesota and a tough loss at Purdue.

The bright side: Coach Hoeppner seems to be healthy and building something worth watching in basketball town. He asked his team to lay it on the line against Michigan State and they responded with a huge win. 5-7 is ahead of schedule with several young players getting quality time in 2006.

Grade: B-. It was better than I expected, particularly in league play, but it should have been better than that. There is no reason that this team should not be sitting 7-5 and bowling, perhaps even against the likes of Texas.

To forget: Purdue struggled against some less than stellar MAC foes to start the season and then looked abysmal in losing four of five during the middle of the season.

The bright side: The gold and black reeled off three Big Ten wins to close conference play and put up a good effort in the never easy trip to Hawaii. Eight wins is just where I had them pegged and given where things were at various points of the season, it is a nice way to end the campaign.

Grade: B. It was really just about what I expected, give or take a loss here or there. The loss to Iowa – or at least the blowout part - looks a little bad when you look back, but the others were to be expected. A solid season from Tiller and Co.

To forget: Penn State was unable to beat any of the big dogs on the schedule this year including Notre Dame, Michigan, Wisconsin and Ohio State.

The bright side: Each of the four losses came to BCS Bowl bound teams (or in the case of Wisconsin BCS worthy). The defense was stellar while the offense struggled and instead of a transition year like Penn State had been experiencing of late, things were a bit ahead of schedule.

Grade: B+. I overestimated the loss of Michael Robinson. With him, this team may well have found nine or more wins. Then again, I also overlooked the revamping that had to take place up front. Once that started to solidify, the Nits dug in and had a pretty good season.

To forget: Not much. Maybe the dismal offensive performance in the second half at Michigan. Then again, who had any luck against the Michigan defense this year outside of Ohio State?

The bright side: With very little back on offense and a rather no-name defense, not to mention a new coach, the Badgers only won the most regular season games in school history! The entire season was standing next to the sun bright.

Grade: A+. A season I thought might see some growing pains and real struggles on offense never played out that way. True, the non-conference slate was pretty easy and not playing Ohio State helped, but folks, this was one heck of a football team. Ranked No. 7 in the BCS poll, Wisconsin is arguably better than some of the other teams that got into the BCS Bowls by default. Barry who? Brian who? Great season by the Badgers.

To forget: Nothing much. Maybe the near debacle against Ball State and certainly the passing of the legendary Bo Schembechler just hours before the biggest game ever played between Michigan and Ohio State.

The bright side: The off-season moves within the coaching staff paid dividends, most notable on defense. The Michigan defense was spectacular all season long. Basically the same cast of players went from 7-5 to 11-1 with an excellent chance to win 12 games and win the Rose Bowl.

Grade: A. It was better than expected but at the same time, this is Michigan. 7-5 seasons are the exception, not the rule. 11-1 seasons are much more normal. The loss at Ohio State was tough to take as was the late shifting in the BCS polls, but all in all, it was a fantastic season for Coach Carr and crew.

To forget: Ah, hmm, let me see here… well, er, huh. Nothing. Ohio State came in number one, finished number one and gets a chance to win another national title.

The bright side: Number one all season long. One of only two teams to go unbeaten (Boise State was the other). A Heisman Trophy winner. I could go on and on and on… you get the picture. This season was as bright as it gets from big time road wins against Texas and Iowa to showdown victories over Penn State and Michigan.

Grade: A+. I expected something big but maybe not this big. I guess I thought the personnel losses on defense would be harder to patch up than they were. Was I wrong or what? This team was dominating from week one in all facets of the game and is one win away from the second national title in five years under Tressel. WOW!

Postseason AwardsPrediction: I had Michigan State's Drew Stanton pegged as the offensive MVP, Penn State's Paul Posluszny as the defensive MVP, Ohio State's Ted Ginn as the special teams MVP and Iowa’s Kirk Ferentz as Coach of the Year.

Defensive MVP goes to Lombardi winner LaMaar Woodley of Michigan. Guy was flat out dominant all season long.

Special Teams MVP is Indiana’s Marcus Thigpen. A 30.1 yards per return average and 3 TDs.

Coach of the Year could go to Jim Tressel or Lloyd Carr or even Terry Hoeppner but I have to give it to Bret Bielema. Wisconsin rose above all expectations this season and a lot of credit goes to first year man Bielema.

Thursday, December 07, 2006

Get Gamm updates...Aside from having to chime in on MSU's football hire, I've been out of touch lately. Had a business trip to sunny Florida but now I'm back home, working on my season reviews for football. In the meantime, here are the most recent Get Gamm standings for football and basketball.

Get Gamm, Bowl Style, will be posted next week. In the meantime, here are the matchups. Buckeye Nation has a one game lead over Dan Meyer and two game lead over several others.

Get Gamm Basketball Standings...Light participation for the kickoff of Get Gamm basketball, yet another Big Ten failure in this match-up of premiere conferences. Dan was the only one to put a score on the tiebreaker so he wins the first week. Dan, we'll start picking regularly with the Big Ten season, so get me your picks sometime around the end of the year.

TheFinalScore

The Final Score blog is my personal podium for Big Ten football and basketball. From previews to predictions, insights & opinions on games, teams, players and coaches, TheFinalScore is your source for Big Ten sports.