As the hot-stove season kicks into high gear, this becomes clearer with each transaction: The Texas Rangers need Josh Hamilton as much as Hamilton needs the Rangers.

Why the sides already haven’t reached an agreement—four years, $100 million sounds about right—is a mystery to me.

Maybe they will now that Zack Greinke has decided on the Los Angeles Dodgers, though you wonder if the Rangers were as interested as had been reported. If Greinke took “only” $147 million from the Dodgers, you have to believe the Rangers offered far less. Either that, or Greinke really, really likes to hit and pay state income taxes.

If the Rangers don’t re-sign Hamilton, they’re in danger of changing too much when it’s not necessary. If they lose Hamilton, then they would be without three key players from last season, after the trade of Michael Young and the departure of Mike Napoli. They’re already starting without two pitchers who remain in their employ, Neftali Feliz and Colby Lewis, but are injured.

Replacing Young’s presence promises to be difficult enough but replacing five core players would result in too much change for a team that wasn’t broken. Heading into October, remember, the Rangers owned the AL’s best record and were considered a World Series favorite.

For sure, not much has gone the way they’ve wanted since Hamilton dropped that routine fly in Oakland on the season’s final day. The Rangers lost the AL West title, then were ousted by the Baltimore Orioles in the wild-card game.

Over the weekend, their third attempt at landing Greinke fell short, and they saw another top starter, James Shields, traded to the Kansas City Royals. Chances for that mega-team blockbuster that (tried to) liven up the winter meetings aren’t looking so hot, either.

All the Rangers have managed so far this off-season is to add a reliever, Joakim Soria, who is coming off Tommy John surgery and bring back catcher Geovany Soto, who hit .196 in his 47 games with Texas. Not exactly moves that will put the Rangers back in the World Series.

That said, the Rangers haven’t misstepped yet. Not trying to win a bidding war for Greinke was the right call, as was letting the Boston Red Sox overpay Napoli to the tune of $39 million.

Moving Young could backfire—no player had a greater impact on his clubhouse—but at least the Rangers’ reasoning was sound. Finding at-bats for another season without a position would have been even more difficult with the 36-year-old coming off a subpar season.

But if they allow Hamilton to follow Young out of Texas, the Rangers essentially would be closing the book on the best chapter in franchise history, and righting their off-season becomes much tougher.

The Rangers likely would have to press even harder for a Justin Upton trade, a deal that could deplete the farm system to the point they no longer would be in position to trade for a starting pitcher such as R.A. Dickey.

While bringing back Hamilton would cost a ton of money, the Rangers still would have plenty in their system to trade for a starter (or even Upton) without suffering much long-term damage. On the field, having Hamilton and Dickey would make the Rangers stronger than trading for Upton and signing a free-agent starter such as Anibal Sanchez or Kyle Lohse.

As for Hamilton, no team comes close to fitting him as well as the Rangers. He has moved his family to Texas, a support system already is in place to help his ongoing recovery with drug and alcohol abuse and he gets to play home games in a hitter-friendly park for one of the game’s best-run and most successful teams in recent years.

Starting over for a club such as the Seattle Mariners or moving to a big market such as Boston for an extra year on his contract would be a risk he doesn’t need to take (if he hasn’t asked Adrian Beltre about either, he should). The Rangers don’t need dramatic change, either.