Midas Member

Paper made it convenient to speculate, and the Fed created the liquidity to speculate with, and with QE and ZIRP, they created the motivation to speculate. Not the whole story, but that's the gist of it. IMO, it was a paper gold bubble. If you think about it, the bigger picture, it makes sense it would happen. You should be glad the paper bubble popped, that's necessary for the physical bubble to begin. IMHO.

but for me it is same and equivalent to debate of, whether the glass is half filled or half empty. Fear is antithesis of greed, either its fear of fed, or greed to preserve,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,same for me.............just take action, either drink the water or throw it.

Midas Member

but for me it is same and equivalent to debate of, whether the glass is half filled or half empty. Fear is antithesis of greed, either its fear of fed, or greed to preserve,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,same for me.............just take action, either drink the water or throw it.

Fear, greed, if Mises and Hayek were here, they'd call it something else. Malinvestment. Yeah, there's some fear, some greed, but the bottom line is the Fed is the cause. They are the motivator, with ZIRP and QE, they are putting a fire under the seats of dollar holders.

Silver Member

As far as I've been able to tell, the latest round of sanctions against Iran bans gold transactions but not silver transactions. This could be a new source of demand and perhaps explain some of the Indian imports.

Banned

As far as I've been able to tell, the latest round of sanctions against Iran bans gold transactions but not silver transactions. This could be a new source of demand and perhaps explain some of the Indian imports.

Silver Member

As far as I've been able to tell, the latest round of sanctions against Iran bans gold transactions but not silver transactions. This could be a new source of demand and perhaps explain some of the Indian imports.

In the COMEX futures exchange, the “Commercials” category of traders, made up of large banks, has traditionally held significantly large “short” positions – which means that the banks are either hedging an existing silver position or betting that silver will depreciate. The recent COMEX disclosures have revealed a staggering drop in the “Commercials” outstanding short positions, however – representing a decrease from 259 million ounces in February 2013 to 20 million ounces as of the last Commitment of Traders (“COT”) report released June 25th.1 This represents a significant change in the positioning of the silver futures market, and also suggests that previously ‘short’ participants have exited the “short silver” trade altogether. This drop actually represents the cumulative purchase of approximately 240 million ounces of ‘long’ silver contracts to cover the previously mentioned short positions, so despite silver’s price decline, the silver futures market has actually seen an abundance of buying.

Unfortunately, the COT and Bank Participation Reports don’t name the largest holders of futures contracts, but it has been alleged that one of the largest commercial ‘short’ contract holders is JP Morgan. JP Morgan has long been questioned by silver investors who suspect that the bank may be manipulating the price of silver for its own benefit. This speculation has also been fueled by the fact that JP Morgan acts as the physical custodian for the largest silver ETF, the iShares Silver Trust (SLV), which has just over $6 billion in underlying assets.

Silver Member

In our view, the ongoing recovery in America’s housing market is a big tail-wind for the world’s largest economy and it may provide the necessary impetus for a sustainable advance on Wall Street. In fact, as American property prices continue to appreciate, the number of households with negative equity will diminish and unleash a powerful ‘wealth effect’. When American homeowners breathe a sigh of relief, they will undoubtedly open their wallets and increase their discretionary spending.

Bearing in mind the ongoing improvement in America’s property market, we remain optimistic about the prospects of Wall Street. In our view, if the housing recovery plays out, American businesses will prosper and become more valuable; thereby pushing up their corresponding stock prices. Moreover, we suspect that the laggards of the previous decade (biotechnology, consumer discretionary, consumer staples, financials and healthcare) will continue to outperform the broad market. Conversely, we believe that the cyclical sectors such as commodities and industrials; as well as precious metals miners will continue to disappoint investors.

Given our expectations, we have allocated our equity and fund portfolios to the strongest sectors and geographical areas. Short-term volatility notwithstanding, we remain confident that our holdings will produce good growth over the following months.

Ethylene oxide (EO) is used in the production of antifreeze, polyester, heat transfer liquids, gas dehydration, and solvents. It is also used in cosmetics, pharmaceuticals, lubricants, paint solvents, soaps, detergents, gas purification, emulsifiers and dispersants. Because of the wonderful properties of this reactive chemical, its growth has benefited the silver market as well. Because the precious metal is used as a catalyst in EO production.

Some 90% of silver's total catalyst demand comes from EO production. The EO market has enjoyed a 30-year continued growth cycle, according to consultancy Metals Focus Ltd. In 2002 it consumed 100 million ounces of silver, and it is projected by 2017 to reach 225 million ounces per annum. This rivals the historical high of the photographic industry. However, the EO market will not continue to grow at this pace. Because consumers are able to recover the silver from the catalyst. This means that at some point its demand will stabilize and perhaps decrease.

By geographical area, the United States is the largest consumer of silver. It is also the largest consumer of silver jewelry. Over the last couple of years demand to buy silver as jewelry has remained strong, as gold remained at high prices, leading consumers to substitute. But now, with the recent decline in the gold price, there's good reason to think silver will have a bigger struggle to keep its share of the market.

What of that other major consumer of silver – investment? This is not a primary user. We are talking about the investor, who can substitute at will. As of this writing, the SLV (which is the call sign for the largest exchange-traded silver trust fund or ETF) is holding 320 million ounces of silver. This number represents 31% of annual world silver supply using 2012's statistics.

What are the concerns then for an investor? What happens if the silver comes back into the market that is in the hands of investors? What happens if the price goes down? Finally what happens if the price goes up?

The funny thing with silver is that when the price goes down demand from the industrial sector and jewelry sector will rise and it will be consumed. It may take some time but it will happen. At the same time if the price is low then there will be less mining because of profitability. Eventually the fundamentals will drive the price higher.

If the price makes new highs we usually see large liquidations of metal either from scrap recovery or investors. This will force market prices to correct to a level that will sustain the available material. Of course if silver were to be demanded as forms of currency, then all bets are off. The price of silver would then reach unknown heights.

Silver Member

Silver prices increased from $ 4 to $ 21+ that is more than five times and than it increased from $ 8+ to $ 49+ that is more than six times, while it retraced to $ 8+, that is twice the price of bottom, if we go by that than this time it should retrace upto 18+, as that is 2 and 1/2 time of $ 8+.

Gold Member

close enough for govt work I hope....we thought $20 but maybe it was $18 .....now its 18 times 5 right?....$90? but sell at $75? hard to view anything in this market. bond yield over about 4.5% and the budget would be completely consumed with the interest on the existing us debt....what would that do to pos...lol....I can dream.

Silver Member

close enough for govt work I hope....we thought $20 but maybe it was $18 .....now its 18 times 5 right?....$90? but sell at $75? hard to view anything in this market. bond yield over about 4.5% and the budget would be completely consumed with the interest on the existing us debt....what would that do to pos...lol....I can dream.

RIGHT NOW 5TH MINUTE WAVE IS YET TO BE FORMED, SO THAT WOULD GIVE US FINAL FIGURE.
How far is the target now? and if Syria will help than will see more extension.

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No doubt Syria along with rising oil and gas prices are part of the equation, I suspect silver may hit 25.41 today or tomorrow at latest, where does that put us.

Silver Member

RIGHT NOW 5TH MINUTE WAVE IS YET TO BE FORMED, SO THAT WOULD GIVE US FINAL FIGURE.
How far is the target now? and if Syria will help than will see more extension.

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No doubt Syria along with rising oil and gas prices are part of the equation, I suspect silver may hit 25.41 today or tomorrow at latest, where does that put us.

Gold Member

The result on the right side of the equation is the absolute value of the arithmetic expression on the left, but I don't know what it means. I'm guessing if I read the thread from the beginning, it will become more clear. Could you explain generally what is being displayed, or point me to something that would shed some light?

"You get the same order of criminality from any State to which you give power to exercise it; and whatever power you give the State to do things FOR you carries with it the equivalent power to do things TO you." -- Albert Jay Nock (1870-1945)

Silver Member

The result on the right side of the equation is the absolute value of the arithmetic expression on the left, but I don't know what it means. I'm guessing if I read the thread from the beginning, it will become more clear. Could you explain generally what is being displayed, or point me to something that would shed some light?

Silver Miner

I will bite. I'm not arguing that you are wrong, but rather I have a question.
Wouldn't a fall from 86 to 26 be too severe of a correction, especially if you expect this all to happen roughly in the next 2 1/2 years? I would imagine a fall from $86 to $50 in a giant move to $126 would be possible in a 2 1/2 year timeframe. But I see a correction from $86 to $26 to be so severe that it would require several years to work through, much like what we are experiencing now.

Or rather, are you expecting the next move over the next 2 1/2 years to take us to $86, and then a correction to $26, and several more years before we work to $126?

Silver Member

I will bite. I'm not arguing that you are wrong, but rather I have a question.
Wouldn't a fall from 86 to 26 be too severe of a correction, especially if you expect this all to happen roughly in the next 2 1/2 years? I would imagine a fall from $86 to $50 in a giant move to $126 would be possible in a 2 1/2 year timeframe. But I see a correction from $86 to $26 to be so severe that it would require several years to work through, much like what we are experiencing now.

Or rather, are you expecting the next move over the next 2 1/2 years to take us to $86, and then a correction to $26, and several more years before we work to $126?

Regardless of investor's psychology and scarcity of PM, silver had corrected from 49 - 18 and it was two dollar above double of earlier bottom, that is 8(16+2). Fund management when sell million ounce, the price get corrected by 5 dollar and they gain more by it. So silver investor is victimized than gold investor

Silver Member

If silver only equals the performance of the 70s, it will reach $150. However, this cycle will only be over when silver and gold are not quoted in the current fiat currencies or any other fiat currency. Instead, most goods would be quoted in terms of silver and gold.