Julie Mack: It's Bolger vs. Bolger in 63rd State House race

Selection flyer mailed this week by the Michigan Democratic State Committee in the 63rd House race.

KALAMAZOO, MI -- The campaign flier features pictures of House Speaker Jase Bolger and former Detroit Mayor Kwame Kilpatrick.

"You play by the rules ... shouldn't they?" it reads, next to a list of the two's supposed similarities: Lied, political games, defrauded voters, text-message scandal, investigated by grand jury.

The ad's sponsor? The Michigan Democratic State Central Committee.

Forget the irony that Kilpatrick, now on trial for corruption charges, is a Democrat. State party leaders smell blood in trying to unseat Bolger, a Republican seeking re-election in the 63rd House District, which covers eastern Kalamazoo County and half of Calhoun County.

The more surprising thing: It might work.

Asked if Bolger could lose this election, his predecessor, Republican Lorence Wenke immediately responds: "Absolutely. I think in this district he's very vulnerable."

As recently as three months ago, Bolger looked like a lock for re-election. The district is predominately Republican. In his almost four years in the House and two as Speaker, Bolger had developed a reputation as a smart, can-do legislator whose political skills were respected and appreciated by his peers and his constituents.

The reputation took a nosedive in mid-July when the Kent County Prosecutor Bill Forsyth released a report revealing Bolger's role in helping Roy Schmidt, a longtime Grand Rapids Democrat, to file at the
last minute as a Republican in seeking re-election in the 76th House
District. What got Bolger and Schmidt in hot water was not the switch in parties, but their efforts -- documented in dozens of text messages -- to line up a sham candidate to file as a Schmidt's Democratic
opponent.

"Bolger has stepped in a couple of cow patties and it's a whole new ballgame," said Bill Ballenger, a Lansing-based political analyst who publishes Inside Michigan Politics.

For his part, Bolger told MLive/Kalamazoo Gazette this week that the controversy is not weighing heavy on voters, who care more about jobs and the economy.

But some Democratic polls are showing Bolger's lead to be within the margin of error. Ballenger referenced a recent poll on Bolger's favorability ratings that showed his voters show the House Speaker in an unfavorable light by a 2-1 margin.

Ballenger said he still gives "a slight edge" to Bolger in the race. "But the idea that he could cake walk to victory, that's out the window," Ballenger said.

Every election that involves an incumbent is, in effect, a referendum on the incumbent's capabilities. But that's hugely true in this race, where Bolger's opponent, Bill Farmer, is a little-known, first-time candidate who initially agreed to run to ensure the Democrats had a name on the ballot.

"I don't think many people could name Jase's opponent," Wenke said.

Ballenger agreed that if Bolger loses, it won't be because voters have fallen in love with Farmer. "He's just the surrogate for the anybody-but-Bolger vote," Ballenger said.

But Ballenger said that even if Bolger wins re-election, the Democrats are still delighted at the idea that Bolger will have to spend his time and energy keeping his seat versus helping colleagues around the state with their campaigns.

Yet Ballenger questioned whether going after Bolger is a sound strategy, "even if they do get their scalp."

He noted that the Democrats have to win 10 state House seats in November to regain the majority. "While they can crow if they unseat Bolger, at what cost?" he said. "What good does it do if it costs them three or four seats that might have been winnable" if not for the diversion of resources into the Bolger race?

And if they do defeat Bolger but stay in the minority, "the Republicans are going to be furious and take a much harder line," Ballenger said. "You already have Democrats whining and moaning about how they've been treated as the minority, but they haven't seen nothin' yet."