Month: November 2018

Still, there is a Munich lesson for how to respond to Putin today. It encourages malevolent actors to escalate their ambitions as they calculate what they wish to achieve against reduced risk and resistance. Western intelligence services – mostly caught by surprise by these events – have been gaming what the Russian leader might do next. Russia should permit Ukrainian shipping free access to the Sea of Azov, in accordance with the 2003 agreement. Once operational, Nord Stream 2 — which bypasses

MUNICH – There are few better places in the world than here to reflect on the need to end Western appeasement of Vladimir Putin and his growing list of international crimes. The latest was last Sunday’s Russian attack on Ukrainian naval vessels in the Black Sea – and its purpose of asserting Kremlin control over its still-sovereign neighbor.

This Bavarian city of beer halls and baroque beauty has another claim it would rather shake, one that made its name synonymous with appeasement. On Sept. 30, 1938, when the perils posed by Adolf Hitler were already apparent, British Prime Minister Neville Chamberlain, French Premier Edouard Daladier, and Italian leader Benito Mussolini signed the Munich Pact, which handed Nazi Germany large parts of Czechoslovakia in the name of peace.

There’s an unwritten rule among serious historians and journalists: No one and nothing should be compared to Hitler and the Third Reich, a singular personality and episode of evil. No direct comparison is reasonable or useful. Russians suffered more fatalities than any other people from what became known as the “Munich Betrayal” and the world war that was to come.

Still, there is a Munich lesson for how to respond to Putin today. Appeasement’s price is always high. It encourages malevolent actors to escalate their ambitions as they calculate what they wish to achieve against reduced risk and resistance.

Russia’s invasion of Georgia in 2008, and the de facto annexation of its two breakaway provinces, was followed by the illegal annexation of Crimea in 2014, the first forceful changing of European borders since World War II. Then there was Moscow’s intervening in Syria to prop up murderous dictator Bassar al Assad in 2015, which was followed by Russia’s interference in the 2016 U.S. elections.

Western intelligence services – mostly caught by surprise by these events – have been gaming what the Russian leader might do next. It was a safe bet that it would fall within his campaigns to rebuild regional influence or to undermine the United States, its European allies, and their democracies and primary institutions, NATO and the European Union, while blocking their ability to accept new members from Moscow’s neighborhood.

Part of the answer came last weekend.

Two aspects of Russia’s military action were significant. First, it was the first time that Putin had so brazenly used his own conventional military forces against Ukraine, where he has acted mostly in the shadows or through proxies. Second, by firing upon Ukrainian vessels, he must have factored in a potential chain of events that might have led to a wider war.

President Donald Trump’s tweet on Thursday that he wouldn’t meet with Putin this weekend on the margins of the G-20 in Argentina was encouraging but insufficient.

In an interview with the German-language Bild Zeitung, Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko this week warned, “The only language [Putin] understands is the solidarity of the Western world. We can’t accept Russia’s aggressive policies. First it was Crimea, then eastern Ukraine, now he wants the Sea of Azov.”

Here’s a brief guide to what has happened and what should be done, providing context and a range of responses recommended by Atlantic Council experts:

In 2003, Russia and Ukraine reached agreement on cooperation in the shared waterways of the Sea of Azov and the Kerch Strait, which runs between Russia and Crimea as the only entrance to the sea.

After Russia illegally annexed Crimea in 2014, it used its new control of both sides of the strait to build a $3.7 billion bridge connecting Crimea to mainland Russia. Its low height of 115 feet cut off access of larger ships to the Ukrainian ports of Mariupol and Berdyansk, resulting in a sharp decline of port revenues.

In May of this year, following the bridge’s completion, Russia moved naval vessels, including warships from its Caspian Flotilla, to the Sea of Azov. Since then, Russia has detained some 150 Ukrainian and foreign merchant ships and interrogated their crew members, according to a Ukrainian official and port authorities, deterring more ship traffic and further cutting revenues.

Last Sunday, Russian forces opened fire and seized three Ukrainian naval ships after rebuffing their attempt to travel from the Black Sea to the Sea of Azov through the Kerch Strait. Russian troops detained 24 Ukrainian crew members, six of whom were injured, and have now transferred them to Moscow for criminal prosecution.

The United States, European allies, the European Union, and NATO have condemned the Kremlin’s aggression against Ukraine. Without more than that, however, Putin won’t be deterred.

Atlantic Council experts favor a three-pronged, diplomatic, economic, and military response, including but not limited to the following:

– Diplomatically, the U.S., NATO, the EU, and other western allies should not only condemn the Russian actions but also detail how they violate specific international conventions. There should be demands that Russia apologize, punish those responsible, and immediately release the Ukrainian sailors.

Russia should permit Ukrainian shipping free access to the Sea of Azov, in accordance with the 2003 agreement. The NATO and EU should jointly send a fact-finding mission to the Sea of Azov.

– Economically, the United States and Europe should more stringently enforce the already existing sanctions imposed following Russia’s annexation of Crimea, since that is the source of the problem. They should then prepare new sanctions on Russian financial institutions and shipping interests, to be implemented if Russia doesn’t reverse course.

To impose even greater costs, the U.S. should push Germany to suspend the ill-conceived Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline from Russia to Germany via the Baltic Sea. Once operational, Nord Stream 2 — which bypasses Ukraine — will cost Ukraine a 3 percent drop in GDP. Russia’s multiple provocations undermine European efforts to obtain guarantees of continued gas transit through Ukraine after Nord Stream 2 comes on line.

– Given the more direct Russian military involvement, it’s also time to increase surveillance and other monitoring of the Sea of Azov by the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe and Western drones. A stronger message would be to widen NATO and U.S. military presence in the eastern Black Sea by increasing freedom of navigation operations.

Critics might argue that such actions would be provocative. History has taught us, however, that appeasement is the most inflammatory action.

That is the lasting lesson of Munich.

Frederick Kempe is a best-selling author, prize-winning journalist and president & CEO of the Atlantic Council, one of the United States’ most influential think tanks on global affairs. He worked at The Wall Street Journal for more than 25 years as a foreign correspondent, assistant managing editor and as the longest-serving editor of the paper’s European edition. His latest book – “Berlin 1961: Kennedy, Khrushchev, and the Most Dangerous Place on Earth” – was a New York Times best-seller and has been published in more than a dozen languages. Follow him on Twitter @FredKempe and subscribe here to Inflection Points, his look each Saturday at the past week’s top stories and trends.

For more insight from CNBC contributors, follow @CNBCopinion on Twitter.

The first time I truly took a break from social media was in 2015, at a summer camp for burned-out adults called “Camp Grounded.” I recall arguing with friends about whether our experience was essentially a PG version of Burning Man, or a harbinger of something bigger, a growing discontent among millennials with social media. At that time, social media companies seemed unstoppable, a daily part of life. Instagram and Facebook were a habit that very few people questioned, with a few notable excep

The first time I truly took a break from social media was in 2015, at a summer camp for burned-out adults called “Camp Grounded.”

There were three rules: Take a camp name of your choosing, like Luna or Huckleberry, avoid talking about “W,” meaning work, and ditch all electronics at the door. At an arrival ceremony deep in the California Redwoods, volunteers in hazmat suits zipped up our devices into brown bags, leaving them locked away in a so-called “Robot Decontamination Area.”

That might seem extreme, a total gimmick.

But it prompted some deep discussion among my campmates. I recall arguing with friends about whether our experience was essentially a PG version of Burning Man, or a harbinger of something bigger, a growing discontent among millennials with social media.

At that time, social media companies seemed unstoppable, a daily part of life. Instagram and Facebook were a habit that very few people questioned, with a few notable exceptions. I had well-meaning friends who worked at these companies who believed with an almost cult-like fervor in the positive impact of bringing the world closer together.

That’s all starting to change.

Social media companies, most notably Facebook, have faced a reckoning in the past year, with reports surfacing about an infiltration of Russian propaganda to influence elections, misuse user data, and countless other examples of the platform being used for ill.

As a society, we’re starting to lose faith in our technology icons, especially in light of the questionable decisions made by the once-beloved Facebook COO Sheryl Sandberg, and reports about early Facebook employees who got rich and now have the luxury of preventing their own kids from using social media.

#DeleteFacebook, once unthinkable, is now a very real trend. And it poses a growing threat to Facebook’s bottom line, and its future.

Against this backdrop, in August I made a big decision. I removed Facebook and Instagram apps off my phone, and logged out on the web. I didn’t get around to fully disabling or deleting them, as I wanted to see first how I’d respond to a month-long break. Baby steps, I told myself.

French police fired tear gas, stun grenades and water cannon in battles with “yellow vest” protesters trying to breach security cordons on the Champs Elysees in Paris on Saturday ahead of a third rally against high living costs. Police said 60 people had been arrested amid concerns that violent far-right and far-left groups were infiltrating the “yellow vests” movement, a spontaneous grassroots rebellion over the struggle of many in France to make ends meet. In Paris, masked and hooded protester

French police fired tear gas, stun grenades and water cannon in battles with “yellow vest” protesters trying to breach security cordons on the Champs Elysees in Paris on Saturday ahead of a third rally against high living costs.

Police said 60 people had been arrested amid concerns that violent far-right and far-left groups were infiltrating the “yellow vests” movement, a spontaneous grassroots rebellion over the struggle of many in France to make ends meet.

For more than two weeks, the “gilets jaunes” (yellow vests) have blocked roads in protests across France, posing one of the largest and most sustained challenges Emmanuel Macron has faced in his 18-month-old presidency.

In Paris, masked and hooded protesters picked up and hurled crowd barriers and other projectiles in running battles with police on and around the world famous Champs Elysees boulevard.

Others erected their own barricades and set them alight in some of the streets adjacent to the Champs Elysees.

Three policemen and seven protesters had been injured, spokeswoman Johanna Primevert said.

“The thugs are a minority and have no place in these demonstrations,” government spokesman Benjamin Griveaux told LCI television.

Several hundred yellow vests sat down under the Arc de Triomphe at the top of the Elysees, singing La Marseillaise, France’s national anthem, and chanting, “Macron Resign!”

On the facade of the towering 19th-century arch, protesters scrawled in big black letters: “The yellow vests will triumph.”

George Herbert Walker Bush, the World War II veteran who was elected the 41st President of the United States and fathered the nation’s 43rd, died late Friday at the age of 94, his family announced in a statement. President Donald Trump, who rose to power by railing against the Republican establishment embodied by the Bush family, hailed the 41st president as a man of “sound judgement,common sense and unflappable leadership,” a statement from the White House read. Bush “guided our nation, and the

George Herbert Walker Bush, the World War II veteran who was elected the 41st President of the United States and fathered the nation’s 43rd, died late Friday at the age of 94, his family announced in a statement.

The Republican spent decades serving in government before ascending to the nation’s highest office, having served as United Nations ambassador, CIA chief and vice president under Ronald Reagan, a towering political figure still venerated by the GOP.

Bush advocated a “kinder, gentler” form of conservatism, pursued policies that helped topple the Soviet empire and initiated military campaigns that ousted one foreign dictator while crippling another. He lived longer than any other U.S. president, and presided over the demise of the Cold War, punctuated by the fall of the Berlin Wall.

President Donald Trump, who rose to power by railing against the Republican establishment embodied by the Bush family, hailed the 41st president as a man of “sound judgement,common sense and unflappable leadership,” a statement from the White House read.

Bush “guided our nation, and the world, to a peaceful and victorious conclusion of the Cold War. As president, he set the stage for the decades of prosperity that have followed,” Trump said.

The former president also was lauded by the 44th U.S. president, Barack Obama, who in a statement called Bush “a patriot and humble servant…While our hearts are heavy today, they are also filled with gratitude.” Bush’s life was “a testament to the notion that public service is a noble, joyous calling,” the statement read.

With the sheer number of hotels and resorts offering quirky, cool and outright over-the-top vacation specials, there’s no need to stay home over the holidays. In fact, Santa (who knows if you’ve been naughty or nice) can deliver your gifts to one of the many hotels around the country offering fun holiday-themed packages and Christmas-themed experiences. CNBC recently took a look at a handful of locations offering up everything from shopping sprees to surfing lessons (which old St. Nick himself i

With the sheer number of hotels and resorts offering quirky, cool and outright over-the-top vacation specials, there’s no need to stay home over the holidays.

In fact, Santa (who knows if you’ve been naughty or nice) can deliver your gifts to one of the many hotels around the country offering fun holiday-themed packages and Christmas-themed experiences. CNBC recently took a look at a handful of locations offering up everything from shopping sprees to surfing lessons (which old St. Nick himself is teaching at one location).

A total of 79 Chinese cities have triggered air pollution alerts as severe winter smog covers wide swaths of the country, the official Xinhua news agency reported on Saturday. As of Nov. 30, five cities had issued red pollution warnings, the most severe in China’s pollution warning system, 73 had issued orange warnings, the second-most severe, and one city had issued a yellow warning, triggering the implementation of emergency management and control measures, Xinhua reported. China’s capital iss

A total of 79 Chinese cities have triggered air pollution alerts as severe winter smog covers wide swaths of the country, the official Xinhua news agency reported on Saturday.

As of Nov. 30, five cities had issued red pollution warnings, the most severe in China’s pollution warning system, 73 had issued orange warnings, the second-most severe, and one city had issued a yellow warning, triggering the implementation of emergency management and control measures, Xinhua reported.

The affected cities lie in and around the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region that includes China’s capital, as well as in the Fenwei plains area of Shanxi, Shaanxi and Henan provinces, and in the northern Yangtze River delta region, home to Jiangsu province, China’s second-largest steelmaking hub.

China’s capital issued its first air pollution alert for the winter season on Nov. 23, and Jiangu province issued orange smog alerts in late November, forcing factories and utilities to slash output.

Northern China often sees heavy smog over the winter, which runs from mid-November to mid-March, as homes and power utilities burn more coal for power and heating.

On Saturday evening, the concentration of small particulate matter, known as PM2.5, at Beijing’s Temple of Heaven was 193 micrograms per cubic metre, according to data from China’s National Environmental Monitoring Centre, five-and-a-half times the state standard of 35 micrograms per cubic metre.

China has taken steps to broaden its campaign against air pollution, including extending a monthly air quality ranking to 169 cities from 74 to pressure local authorities to clean up dirty skies.

Cooperation is the best choice for China and the United States, Chinese President Xi Jinping told U.S. President Donald Trump during a Saturday dinner meeting in Argentina, state news agency Xinhua reported. Xi said he would like to exchange views on issues of common concern with Trump and jointly chart the course for China-U.S. relations in the next stage, Xinhua added. Trump struck a positive note in brief remarks to reporters before the dinner, despite the U.S. president’s earlier threats to

Cooperation is the best choice for China and the United States, Chinese President Xi Jinping told U.S. President Donald Trump during a Saturday dinner meeting in Argentina, state news agency Xinhua reported.

Xi said he would like to exchange views on issues of common concern with Trump and jointly chart the course for China-U.S. relations in the next stage, Xinhua added.

Trump struck a positive note in brief remarks to reporters before the dinner, despite the U.S. president’s earlier threats to impose new tariffs on Chinese imports.

“Well be discussing trade and I think at some point we are going to end up doing something great for China and great for the United States,” Trump said.

He suggested that the “incredible relationship” he and Xi had established would be “the very primary reason” they could make progress on trade, though he offered no specifics on how they might resolve the main issue dividing the world’s two biggest economies.

George Herbert Walker Bush, a World War II veteran, former United Nations ambassador and director of the CIA who was elected as the 41st president of the United States and fathered the 43rd, died on Friday at the age of 94. The president who oversaw both a war in the Middle East and the end of the Cold War spent decades in government service. Bush outlived Ronald Reagan, the larger-than-life president and movement figure under whom he served for eight years as vice president. Reagan died in 2004

George Herbert Walker Bush, a World War II veteran, former United Nations ambassador and director of the CIA who was elected as the 41st president of the United States and fathered the 43rd, died on Friday at the age of 94.

The president who oversaw both a war in the Middle East and the end of the Cold War spent decades in government service. Throughout his years in the public’s eye, Bush was complimented for his temperament, graciousness and kindness — qualities cited repeatedly by figures on both sides of the aisle on Saturday, as tributes to his life and legacy poured in.

Bush outlived Ronald Reagan, the larger-than-life president and movement figure under whom he served for eight years as vice president. Reagan died in 2004 at the age of 93, and a statement from his presidential library acknowledged the “remarkable partnership” both men forged during a pivotal era in American history.

“As they reignited the U.S. economy, battled tyranny across the globe, and restored America’s pride and purpose, President Reagan relied on his vice president’s calm, strength, loyalty, and wisdom,” said Fred Ryan, chairman of the board of the Ronald Reagan Presidential Foundation and Institute.

“In all that the administration achieved, President Reagan once remarked, “no one has been closer to my side and has contributed more to our success than George Bush,” Ryan added.

President Donald Trump postponed a Saturday press conference designed to tout the “great success” of the Group of 20 meeting in Argentina, citing the death of former president George H.W. The president’s move came as markets were hopeful about a detente, or at least signs of progress, between the U.S. and China on trade. Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping are expected to meet on the sidelines of the conference later Saturday. The officials also confirmed that “taboo words” in drafting the co

President Donald Trump postponed a Saturday press conference designed to tout the “great success” of the Group of 20 meeting in Argentina, citing the death of former president George H.W. Bush.

Via Twitter, the president said in Buenos Aires that he would wait until after his return to the United States to brief the press on the outcome of the confab between the world’s largest industrialized nations.

The president’s move came as markets were hopeful about a detente, or at least signs of progress, between the U.S. and China on trade. Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping are expected to meet on the sidelines of the conference later Saturday.

G-20 leaders have agreed to address reform in the World Trade Organization (WTO), maintain current efforts on climate change, and progress taxation of the digital economy, according to a draft seen by Reuters.

The officials also confirmed that “taboo words” in drafting the communique included any reference to protectionism or unfair trade practices. This was seen as important given the ongoing tensions between the United States and China.

“I will never apologize for the United States — I don’t care what the facts are. — Inauguration speech, Jan. 20, 1989. And I’m president of the United States and I’m not going to eat any more broccoli.” — Handwritten note dated Jan. 20, 1993, to Clinton just before his inauguration. — Tweet on Jan. 20, 2014, the 25th anniversary of his inauguration.

“I will never apologize for the United States — I don’t care what the facts are. … I’m not an apologize-for-America kind of guy.” — Comments during an Aug. 2, 1988, campaign stop about the USS Vincennes’ mistakenly downing a commercial Iran Air flight, killing 290 civilians.

“America is never wholly herself unless she is engaged in high moral principle. We as a people have such a purpose today. It is to make kinder the face of the nation and gentler the face of the world.” — Inauguration speech, Jan. 20, 1989.

“I’m elated, I’m just not an emotional kind of guy.” _ Explaining his low-key reaction to the collapse of the Berlin Wall, Nov. 9, 1989.

“I do not like broccoli. And I haven’t liked it since I was a little kid and my mother made me eat it. And I’m president of the United States and I’m not going to eat any more broccoli.” — News conference, March 22, 1990, days after word spread that Bush had banned broccoli from Air Force One.

“We’re going to keep trying to strengthen the American family. To make them more like the Waltons and less like the Simpsons.” —1992 Republican National Convention.

“My dog Millie knows more about foreign affairs than these two bozos.” — During his unsuccessful 1992 re-election campaign against Bill Clinton and Al Gore.

“Losing is never easy. Trust me, I know something about that.” —Jan. 5, 1993, speech at West Point, two months after his failed re-election bid.

“In the wake of the Cold War, in a world where we are the only remaining superpower, it is the role of the United States to marshal its moral and material resources to promote a democratic peace. It is our responsibility, it is our opportunity to lead. There is no one else.” —Jan. 5, 1993, West Point speech.

“I’m not a very good one to give advice; but just don’t let the critics discourage you or push you off course. … Your success is now our country’s success. I am rooting for you.” — Handwritten note dated Jan. 20, 1993, to Clinton just before his inauguration.

“Still hard to believe I had the honor to serve as President.” — Tweet on Jan. 20, 2014, the 25th anniversary of his inauguration.