Wednesday 4th June: Euro still confined within a range, will we see a break, today?

[jamiesocial]

EUR/USD:

4hr TF.

Technically, price has not changed since yesterday’s analysis. The areas (Demand: 1.36523 – 1.35984 Supply: 1.36087 – 1.36542) where price are currently capped may have formed in anticipation of the G7 meetings beginning today, as always, remain on guard, and expect the unexpected!

The weekly timeframe shows price is in weekly demand at 1.34770 – 1.36771, whilst the daily timeframe shows price reacting to a S/R flip level resistance at 1.36432, with the 4hr timeframe currently trading in demand at 1.35623 – 1.35984, so higher prices are likely for now.

Buy orders are still seen around the 1.35984 level from within 4hr demand at 1.35623 – 1.35984, with the expectation of a rally to supply above at 1.36687 – 1.36542, where price remains capped. A break below the demand area just mentioned is unlikely due to the higher timeframes currently emphasizing bullish price action.

Sellers are likely still active within and around the supply area at 1.36687 – 1.36542, therefore, a reaction may happen if price rallies this far. Sell orders remain the same as yesterday’s analysis, being seen at 1.36542. If a break is seen above the supply area at 1.36687 – 1.36542, this could force price to test supply at 1.37235 –1.37005 allowing sell orders to be placed above the round number at 1.37005.

Most likely scenario: Price will likely see some bullish action today from demand at 1.35623 – 1.35984 up to the supply area at 1.36687 – 1.36542. A reaction may be seen at this supply, do not expect it to be magnificent though, as price will likely consume this supply area. However, a spike south is not out of the question before any of the above happens either.

GBP/USD:

4hr TF.

Similar to the Euro, not much has changed. Price still remains capped between the round number below at 1.67000 and supply above at 1.68158 – 1.67828.

As a reminder, the weekly timeframe is presently showing weakness, price has reacted near a supply area at 1.76290 – 1.70490, closing back into the long-term consolidation area at 1.67980 – 1.42273. The daily timeframe candles are also showing weakness around where the low 1.67353 was consumed.

Much the same as yesterday’s analysis:

Buy orders are seen below the round number at 1.66906, this would be a likely area more stop-loss orders are located. A break below could see price testing the daily S/R flip level at 1.66631, so look for buy orders to be set just above this level at 1.66680.

The sell order (1.67828) at supply (1.68158 – 1.67828) did not get filled, it missed it by about 1 pip!! This sell order remains the same with no alterations because of the way price approached the supply area (levels above). Price appears to be consuming buyers as it rallies giving us a hint, price may very likely drop in value. If a break is seen above the capped supply area at 1.68158 – 1.67828, this could force price to test the supply area at 1.68822 – 1.68708. Sell orders could then be set at 1.68708.

Most likely scenario: A drop in price is likely, but not before we see a spike north to supply at 1.68158 – 1.67828, up to as far as the round number 1.68000 to collect the much-needed liquidity.

AUD/USD:

4hr TF.

The buyers on the 4hr timeframe had taken back control yesterday with price still currently trading in between the D/S flip area above at 0.93345 – 0.93186 and demand below at 0.92037 – 0.92203 with a breach of either area yet to be seen.

The weekly timeframe shows price trading around resistance at 0.93718, with the daily timeframe currently trading in what appears to be weak demand seen at 0.92054 – 0.92633, so, we have a battle between weekly resistance and daily demand, this should be very interesting!

Due to the size of the area where price is capped (levels above), the buy and sell orders remain unchanged.

Buy orders are still seen at 0.92203 at the demand area below (0.92037 – 0.92203), with sell orders at 0.93186 at the supply area above (0.93345 – 0.93186). The reason for not including the round number 0.93000 as a sell order is simply because pro money will likely fake this level up to supply collecting the buy stops from the sellers and buy orders from the breakout traders to sell in to.

Most likely scenario: Due to higher-timeframe influence, selling seems to be in order at the moment. Pro money will likely spike north above the round number 0.93000 triggering sell orders at the D/S flip area at 0.93345 – 0.93186, for an overall bigger push down though demand at 0.92037 – 0.92203.

USD/JPY:

4hr TF.

The supply area at 102.365 – 102.128 has been consumed stopping out the majority of the sellers, and triggering some breakout buy orders opening up a great-looking price void above all the way up until the next supply area at 103.055 – 102.742. As reported in Monday’s weekly analysis, higher prices are expected due to price trading off of the weekly support at 101.254 and the daily timeframe showing price reacting from demand at 100.777 – 101.676.

The buy orders reported yesterday at 101.472 at the base of demand (101.356 – 101.472) remain the same, however, new buy orders are seen above newly formed demand (101.936 – 102.089) at 102.111, and also above the round number 102.000 at 102.023 incorporated within the demand area just mentioned, as this area appears to be an important decision point i.e. where the decision was made to consume supply at 102.365 – 102.128).

Most likely scenario: Price will likely see a drop in value towards demand at 101.936 – 102.089 with a reaction expected to be seen, which may rally price up to supply at 103.055 – 102.742.

EUR/GBP:

4hr TF.

The buyers are clearly winning the battle at the moment between demand at 0.81053 – 0.81171 and the lower of the 3 stacked supply areas at 0.81580 – 0.81512.

The weekly timeframe shows price is in demand at 0.80848 – 0.81668, whilst the daily timeframe is showing price is trading at the base of a supply area (0.81819 – 0.81430) giving conflicting signals.

The buy order 0.81171 is in good profit and may be a good time to think about closing part of the position and moving the stop loss to breakeven, as price came very near to the take profit target already.

The sell order (0.81512) remains unchanged at supply (0.81580 – 0.81512) with price coming very near to filling the order yesterday. A break above this supply would possibly see a rally up to the highest of the 3 stacked supply areas at 0.81823 – 0.81766, as price usually tests the extreme zones when areas are stacked similar to this. Impending sell orders will be set just below the supply area just mentioned at 0.81746.

Most likely scenario: Higher-timeframe influence is currently highlighting long trades. Price will possibly visit the supply area at 0.81580 – 0.81512 with a reaction likely being seen before consuming this area, possibly testing the highest of the 3 stacked supply areas at 0.81823 – 0.81766

USD/CAD:

4hr TF.

Yesterday’s analysis reported price would likely see a bearish reaction back into the range (Supply: 1.09089 – 1.08844, Demand: 1.08142 – 1.08330). This did not happen; instead, it was completely the opposite with a break north of the supply area just mentioned, along with the big figure number 1.09000.

A new demand area has formed at 1.08907 – 1.09022, incorporating the round number 1.09000 within. The two circled areas to the left indicate possible supply consumption, so higher prices may yet be seen up to the S/R flip level at 1.09408.

New buy orders are seen above demand (1.08907 – 1.09022) at 1.09035, and also just below the round number 1.09000 at 1.08954 because price will likely retrace to collect liquidity before continuing up. The reason the order is placed below the round number is because pro money love to hunt for stops around areas such as these, so it’s always sensible to think carefully about where possible stop-loss clusters may be placed. The buy orders mentioned yesterday at demand (1.08142 – 1.08330) remain the same, just in case a break below the newly-formed demand area is seen (levels above).

New sell orders are seen at 1.09408 (S/R flip level) where price will likely react if buyers have the strength to continue rallying. If a break above happens, sellers will likely come into the market at supply (1.10039 – 1.09875) incorporating the huge round number 1.10000 within. Impending sell orders are seen below the supply area just mentioned at 1.09850 and just above the round number (1.10000) at 1.10020.

Most likely scenario: Price will likely see a retracement to demand at 1.08907 – 1.09022, then rally up to the S/R flip level at 1.09408.

USD/CHF:

4hr TF.

Price came very close to touching the big round number 0.90000, missing it by 5 pips or so.

As mentioned yesterday, the daily timeframe is currently in supply at 0.90381 – 0.89392 with the 4hr timeframe showing weakness. The tail that consumed demand at 0.89375 – 0.89459 is a very important signal that lower prices may be seen to at least the next demand (0.88973 – 0.89168) below.

Buy orders at 0.89168 remain the same as a drop in price is expected. Sell orders also remain unchanged because pro money may yet retrace price north from where we are now to collect sellers’ stops (buy orders) and breakout buyers’ orders to sell in to.

Most likely scenario: Price will likely retrace north from where price is currently trading at the time of writing, up to the round number 0.90000 area to collect liquidity for a possible drop in price.

XAU/USD (GOLD)

4hr TF.

Again, like yesterday, technically not much has changed.

Near-term supply is seen at 1268.03 – 1260.87 with near-term demand being seen below at 1231.56 – 1237.57 which is just beneath daily demand at 1238.51 – 1254.97.

Sell orders (1260.87) remain the same at supply (1268.03 – 1260.87), the sell order may not fill due to their being no logical demand to the left, to help push price higher (shown on the chart below with a small trendline).

Buy orders (1237.57), again, remain the same, seen at demand below (1231.56 – 1237.57), however, do be cautious here as the small ranging action seen just above demand may cause price trouble and affect it from rallying higher.

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