Sunday, August 03, 2008

Provincial Show-Down

In the federal side of the bracket, it will be 1988 versus 1957/58, after the free trade election cruised to a 74% win and Dief's dominance lead to a squeaker of a win (51% to 49%).

So the time has come to select the final showdown on the provincial side. The following four elections ran away with things in round 1 but I'm expecting closer races this time around. It's the battle of Quebec in one semi and a pair of political dynasties born one year apart in the other.

The Case for 1960: When political dynasties fall, it's always memorable. And few political dynasties deserved to fall more than the Union Nationale, who had ruledQuebec since World War 2. Under Duplesis, electoral fraud was common, the press was oppressed, and the province resisted modernization, being controlled by the Catholic Church and US business. After Duplesis (and his reformist successor Paul Sauve) died, the stage was set for an 8 seat Jean Lesage win under the Maîtreschez nous slogan.

The win started the quiet revolution - Quebec became more secular, Hydro Quebec come into being, economic and social reforms were passed, and nationalist sentiment bubbled to the surface. The Liberal win also jump started the political career of a young Cabinet Minister by the name of Rene Levesque and, in many ways, set the stage for the 1976 election shocker.

The Case for 1976: It's rare that an election stuns a province, never mind a country but 1976 did just that, drawing headlines around the world. Given the rise of the PQ, the corruption scandals surrounding Bourassa, and the polls that showed Levesque marching to a win, the result should not have been surprising, but it still was.

As for the consequences, we all know them. Bill 101 came into being, and the exodus of head offices out of Montreal began. Two referendums and what seemed like a dozen unity crises came and went. And yet, the country still stands. So while the 1976 Quebec election did not destroy Canada, it certainly changed it forever.

The Case for 1943: The 1943 Ontario election was a dog fight, with three parties coming within 5% of each other and the PCs holding on for a 4 seat minority government victory. The Liberals, victims of a Hepburn-King feud, were booted from power, while the surging CCF came up just short.

The resulting 42 years of PC dominance, at a time when the Liberals owned the province federally, has been well documented and certainly changed Ontario's history dramatically. But the real reason this election left a mark was because of what didn't happen - that is, the CCF coming up just short. If you think a CCF government in Saskatchewan changed Canada forever, just imagine the impact one in Canada's largest province would have had...

The Case for 1944: While the previous year's Ontario vote was close, Tommy Douglas' win was an absolute rout, blowing out the governing Liberals and establishing a 20 year CCF dynasty that would change Saskatchewan forever. The win was the first ever for a socialist party in North America, raising eyebrows across the continent.

The election's impact on Canada as a whole cannot the under-estimated either. While the CCF's success in Saskatchewan never materialized into a federal NDP win, three other provinces have since elected CCF/NDP governments and 1944 no doubt paved the way for that. Many of Douglas' policies, most notably health care, would be later adopted by the federal Liberals and strong CCF performances like these two elections scared Mackenzie King to the left on many issues. For better or worse, much of Canada's current welfare state can be traced back to 1944's shocker on the Prairies.

No election changed Quebec more than 1960. However, no provincial election changed Canada like the 1976 provincial election.

1976 would have never happened without 1960.

Interesting side story.

In 1976, the English in Quebec, which numbered far more than they do now, voted for the Union Nationale, who promised to overturn the law forcing most Quebec children to attend French school. (the UN believed (gasp!) that parents should be able to choose the language of their children's education)

The immigrants were also upset, especially those who, in 1960-63) were told to go to English Protestant school because the French didnt want any dirty immigrants in their Catholic schools.

Bourassa was missing a huge chunk of the Liberal base.

Bourassa lost because he was trying to be more nationalist than the PQ.

If the UN had stayed good and dead, it would have created a much tighter race between Bourassa and Levesque.

I voted for 1976 just because the defining issue in Canada for 30 years has been the Quebec question and that's the election that really put it on the front pages. So for the same reason I went with 44 Sask over 43 Ontario, federal implications trump provincial ones.

Just imagine, if the CCF had not taken power in Saskatchewan in 1944 - we never would have had Medicare and Canada would have a US style health care system to this day.

I don't think the 1943 Ontario election was all that important in the end. It was more important for what did NOT happen than for what did happen. IF the CCF had won the most seats and formed a government - all of Canadian political history might have been very different - but it didn't happen and instead 1943 just meant a continuation of very conventional politics in Ontario - yawn.

"In 1976, the English in Quebec, which numbered far more than they do now, voted for the Union Nationale,

That's not quite true. The UN made some inroads among anglophones and allophones in 1976 - but the majority still voted Liberal. The UN won exactly ONE seat that was largely non-francophone - Pointe-Claire - every other seat in Quebec that was non-francophone stayed Liberals in the 1976 election.