Trade Tim Lincecum. Really. Do It.

Tim Lincecum will be a free agent at the end of the season. For years, the idea that Lincecum would leave San Francisco and sign with another team for gobs of money sent fans in a tizzy. When the Giants inked Matt Cain to a 5-year/$127 million deal just before the 2012 season, many fans fretted that there wouldn’t be any money left for Lincecum.

Then 2012 happened.

The Freak lost whatever fastball command he had. Even when he backed off a bit, and dropped the velocity to 88 or 89 mph, he still couldn’t put the ball where he wanted it. Hitters pounded the pitches that came in right over the plate and they laid off Lincecum’s changeup, long his devilishly good out pitch. His walk rate ballooned to 10.9%, his strikeout rate dropped to 23%, the lowest of his career, and his home-runs-per-fly-ball rate shot up to a frightening 14.9%. His ERA followed, reaching a career-high 5.18, the fourth highest in the majors among qualified starting pitchers. When Bruce Bochy announced that Lincecum would be in the bullpen for the postseason, there was nary a whisper of discontent among Giants fans.

He turned out to be a secret bullpen weapon.

In 17.2 innings, Lincecum allowed only nine hits, five walks and five runs — with four of the runs coming in Game 4 of the NLCS, Lincecum’s only start during the 2012 postseason. Oh, and he struck out 20. He faced 67 batters and struck out 20 of them. That’s a 30% strikeout rate.

Unfortunately for Lincecum and the Giants, that 2012 postseason bullpen magic was just that. Lincecum’s had three excellent, vintage-Timmy starts this season — April 20 against the Padres, May 12 against the Braves, and June 4 against the Blue Jays. But even with those starts — in which he gave up a total of one run in 20.2 inning — he is still sporting a 4.57 ERA to go along with a 10.8% walk rate and a 22.4% strikeout rate, the lowest of his career. As a starter, that’s who Lincecum is now. At age 29, there’s a strong likelihood that he’s long past his peak as a starting pitcher.

But as a reliever?

If Ryan Vogelsong hadn’t fractured a finger on his throwing hand, maybe the Giants would have, eventually, moved Lincecum to the bullpen this season. But with Vogelsong out until August at the earliest, Bruce Bochy has no choice but to send Lincecum to the mound every five games and hope for the best.

The solution?

Trade Lincecum to a playoff-contending team — preferably in the American League — with a struggling bullpen in exchange for a better-than-replacement level starter under control through at least 2014. Lincecum’s new team would get a pitcher with experience in a division race and in the postseason, one who showed in 2012 how effective he can be in short bursts. Lincecum would have the opportunity to showcase his abilities out of the ‘pen, in advance of free agency.

The Giants would get a younger, less-expensive starter to slide into the fourth or fifth spot in the rotation this season and be an option for the rotation next season. Remember, only Matt Cain and Madison Bumgarner are signed through this year. The Giants have an $18 million option on Barry Zito with a $7 million buyout. And while Zito was a postseason hero in 2012, his inability to pitch well on the road this year makes it less and less likely that he’ll be around in 2013. The team also has a $6.5 million option on Vogelsong for 2014. When and how strong Vogelsong returns — and whether the Giants will want to bring him back next season — are very much open questions.

Which is why it makes sense to try to get something of value for Lincecum now.

Okay. Nice idea. But what team would want Lincecum and the remaining $10 million on his contract? And who does that team have to offer in return?

First, forget the money. If the Giants don’t trade Lincecum, they’re on the hook for the remaining $10 million and get nothing when he leaves in free agency. If they could fill a hole in the rotation for this season and next, it makes sense for them to eat the rest of Lincecum’s salary, or at least enough of it to make a deal get done.

Second, think three-way. No, not that. Get your mind out of the gutter. A three-way trade.

Lincecum to a contender.

A well-regarded prospect from the contender to a non-contender.

A young, replacement-level starter from the non-contender to the Giants.

I don’t have a particular trade in mind, as that are many possible permutations and combinations. I do know which American League contenders need bullpen help: the Tigers, Rays, Orioles, and Indians. The Rays seem like a particularly good fit (if the Giants agree to eat Lincecum’s salary), as Tropicana Field is a pitcher’s park. The Rays also have a deep farm system that could yield a good prospect to the non-contending team and a history of getting the most out of pitchers who seem to have hit a dead-end in their career.

As for the better-than-replacement-level starters on non-contending teams who are under control through at least 2014, for now I’ve identified Bud Norris (Astros), Jeremy Hefner (Mets), Carlos Villanueva (Cubs), and Yovani Gallardo (Brewers). You may have others to add to the list.

It would no doubt be difficult to see Lincecum traded, much less to a team the Giants could potentially face in the postseason. But the chances of Lincecum putting on a Giants uniform in 2014 look quite slim. If there’s a way to get value for him now and for next season, the Giants should jump at the opportunity.

About the Author

Wendy is a contributing writer at FanGraphs and Getting Blanked on The Score. She has also written for ESPN.com, Sports on Earth, and SB Nation. You can find her rantings and ravings on Twitter @hangingsliders.

I have never been in favor of a trade, I am still hoping Tim can turn it around in the second half and remind Sabean what kind of pitcher he is. There is one more thing to think of. I personally feel Romo is not the long term answer for closer. If Tim could be convinced to stay in S.F., relief may be his true calling. From what I saw last night, the man can still pitch!

I don't love this idea just because I love Lincecum as a Giant and don't think he should ever be in another uniform, but it's logical and therefore worth seriously considering. In terms of this idea, possibly the Pirates? They have a multitude of good SP's right now and god deal with trading one away. I agree with other commenters that this deal would be hard to swing, however. 17.2 IP in the postseason does not a great RP make.

I'd agree 100 percent with trading Tim IF (and I think it's a big if even if they pay his most or all of his salary) another team would trade a worthwhile prospect or two the Giants way. Giants needs to do what's in their best interest, not in the interest of Timmy's ego.

IF this critical column and the comments helped Timmy find his form. - then bring it on with more!

MOST LIKELY, as I have seen and stated here, he has sputtered, but had evidence of high performance, needing more fine tuning. He was running and humming smoothly last night and this finished his June ERA to 2.92.

"trending" the right way.

Tim's lesson to you all is: Winners never quit and quitters never win. - he has the heart of a champion.

So let me get this straight, some team is going to give up something of value (a "well-regarded prospect") for a starter with diminishing velocity & K rate + an increasing walk rate over a three year period to turn him into a guy who might pitch 20-40 innings, all because he had a good 17.2 innings of relief in 2012? This is the definition of small sample size.

Look, I loved Timmy as much as the next Giants fan but we're/you are still seeing him as 'The Franchise', well a lesser franchise like Arby's or something, and if you'd take Jeremy Hefner for him what makes you think any team would give up a "well-regarded prospect"? Not to mention the problems with teams giving up youngish team-controlled starters.

Giving up Lincecum to get Gallardo is a pipe dream. Gallardo is younger, he's been the better player over the last four seasons, and he's under team control beyond the end of this season. Even if it's done as a three-way trade, the quality of prospect the Brewers would demand for Gallardo would be far beyond Lincecum's value.

One obstacle is that fans love Timmy and if the team unloaded him, there would be backlash. The Giants keep selling the "we are all a big happy family" story so dumping a beloved family member would hurt their PR image. Just dumping him to save salary wouldn't be worth it. Could they get any value in return?

If they had anyone to replace him in the starting rotation it would be a perfect time to move him to the bullpen to see if he could be effective out of the pen in the regular season like he was in last year's post season. Obviously, finding a new starter is a challenge.

So I guess my idea is trade for or acquire a decent starter, maybe via the rent a player option and move Timmy to the pen. Think it's time to finally admit Timmy isn't the starter he used to be, no matter how many times Krukow tries to tell us otherwise.

If I'm that hypothetical team in the American league in a division race, why would I trade one of my good starters to put Lincecum in my bullpen as a middle reliever??? That just doesn't make any sense.

Interesting article, Wendy. I wouldn't trade him right now, because I doubt what he would bring in trade would be worth it, at this point in the season.

Some numbers to consider before writing Lincecum off as an effective starting pitcher:

K/9 innings pitched = 8.819 or 9th in the NL this season (the esteemed Stephen Strasburg is 10th). This would indicate that he still has strikeout type stuff. So while he is struggling, its not like he isn't still capable of fooling MLB hitters.

ERA in March/April (5 starts) = 3.64

ERA in May (6 starts) = 6.37

ERA in June (3 starts) = 2.55

He had a terrible May, but if you look at the other months, his ERA is still quite good. I don't know what this bodes for his future, but if you separate the stats a little, its easy to see that its May that has killed his numbers thus far. He'll never be what he was at the beginning of his career, but the ability to be an effective starting pitcher is still there, IMHO. How does this fit in to the Giants plans, practically speaking? I have no idea.

I am still hoping Tim comes to the realization he could be a fixture in a relief. He would prolong his career just like Smoltz did for Atlanta. Be a fixture for a winner or starter for a loser. The money is less but better prestige!

If that's the Giants' plan, they need to get Lincecum into the bullpen right away -- and he needs to be as effective in that role as he was during the 2012 postseason. No team needs a homer-tossing walkaholic reliever any more than they need one as a starter. And although the Marlins and Royals (and Agent Ned) do exist, it seems unlikely that any team would believe that changing roles automatically elevates Lincecum's current skill level. Nobody has really explained his brief success out of the pen after a miserable year; it's not like he suddenly threw 95 mph with great command. So most teams probably assume his dominance was, as Sabean would say, a "lightning in a bottle" event that's not repeatable or sustainable. The only way to fire up the market is to prove that assumption wrong. Get him into the pen and trot him out for multiple inning appearances a couple times a week starting now. If he dominates, a trade (of him or another reliever) is viable. If he continues to blow up, the Giants are no worse off than they are now.

The thing is, in the real world Lincecum has very little trade value. Teams are not stupid, and they have seen his decline, even taking into account his postseason. Timmy has a huge contract, and a very rapidly declining skill set. No trade is going to bring the Astros best starter, or more over Cliff Lee, barring a salary dump from a team that wants relief next season, and is out of contention. No offense, but no contending team is going to want to bite off a guy that is often shaky, for a top prospect, even if the Giants eat his salary. The best thing Timmy did was insist on two year deals...it is veritable lifesaver for the Giants at this point. Beltran still had (some) game, but Lincecum is far more of a question mark, with little to offer a contender. Most likely the best the Giants can hope for is a veteran middling starter, or maybe a reliever to bolster the pen. Trading a rusty hatchback for a new sportscar just doesn't happen, and at this point Timmy looks more like a Subaru with 200k on the engine.

In other words, the Giants should do what the Mets did in 2011 with Beltran. The Mets knew Beltran would take the big money in free agency. Hence, the Mets had little leverage as they were desperate to Trade away Beltran to get anything in return.

The rumors are get hot that the Astros will trade their #1 starter Bud Norris way more the trade deadline. The Giants are more likely to go after Norris than Cliff Lee. But.......the Giants can't really trade for Norris unless there is an opening in their starting rotation.

I think the Giants would find it difficult to trade away Lincecum. Even with his struggles, he remains the most popular player on the team. And like the Mets in 2011, the giants have little leverage with any trade.

@HarryPeterson I love having Lincecum here. It isn't just the no hitter -- over the past two months he has been steadily improving, adjusting to the type of pitcher he will have to be in the future. In fact you could say that there's been an upward curve from the middle of last season til now. If he's at least a #3 or #4 starter, I want him here. Whether the Giants and he can agree on $, don't know. However, if they're going to trade him, now would be the time. Don't want them to, don't believe it will work out for them if they do (any more than the Wheeler-Beltran trade did). But afterglow of no-no is the trading moment in the sun.

This is actually from Parkfactors.com, I sort of laughed because I agreed with you balloonknot when I first read that part of this article. ESPN actually had a pc on how expansive the outfield is at Tropicana as well:

"This means that in the years 2010-2012,
Tropicana Field produced 83 runs for every 100 runs produced in the
average MLB park, and 87 HRs for every 100 homers, for a mean Park
Factor of 85.

Yeah, Schilling was pretty whacked on ESPN last week. It would have been more "fair and balanced" had ESPN and Schilling talked to Timmy, Rhigetti, Bochy, other team scouts - rather than to blather on repeating cartoon like cliche's repeated over and over.

Did they mention in a previous game against the Braves this year, he was masterful in a win?

Did they mention his K ratio ?

Did they mention his arm and body are healthy and unscathed?

He's still under 30?

He's the consummate team-mate?

Struggling sure, but your not talking about a journeyman pedigree here, his potential to re-tool and produce is ginormous!

@Sonia H @Sunset Boy I know Wendy fairly well, and she has nothing "personal" against Lincecum.

Even if the Giants put him in the pen later this season, odds are he'll leave the team as a free agent after the season no matter how well he pitches. While the options aren't all that great when you're talking about a pitcher making a ton of money in his final year with a 4.57 ERA, but trading him is an option the Giants will at least consider.

@Sonia H Where is the pariah/A-Rod comparison coming from? This isn't about Wendy disliking Lincecum, this is strictly about baseball. If the Giants only have 3+ months left before Lincecum heads elsewhere, what's wrong with trying to get something for him that could help the team? It's not like Wendy is advising the Giants to release him like they released Aaron Rowand and Miguel Tejada in 2011. If no good deal presents itself, keep Lincecum for the rest of the season and see what happens.

And what is so wrong about leaving? Giants dont want him anymore, of course he will leave. What I dont understand is the desperation about dumping him out of the team like he is some sort of pariah, it is not like he is AROD with a 100 million dollar contract left. Jesus.

Trackbacks

[…] want to become too predictable. Wendy Thurm’s piece on Tim Lincecum is interesting and you should read it. I, personally, do not think the Giants can get what she says, but I agree that it’s an idea […]

ABOUT BAY AREA SPORTS GUY

Giants, 49ers, Warriors, Raiders, Athletics, Sharks, Stanford or Cal – BASG has it covered. Bay Area Sports Guy is the sports guy for all sports guys (and girls), writing about Bay Area sports and the local sports media since 2008. BASG is the largest independent blog covering Bay Area sports, and took People’s Choice in CBS San Francisco’s "Most Valuable Blogger Awards 2011."