942
FXUS64 KMAF 021547
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1047 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015
.DISCUSSION...
See 18Z Aviation Discussion below.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours in return flow under
upper-lvl ridging. Forecast soundings develop a widespread 4-5 kft
agl cu field early this afternoon, and a 4-8 kft agl cu field near
the end of the fcst pd. Convection will be possible this afternoon
and overnight, mainly SE NM under the theta-e ridge axis.
&&
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 324 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015/
DISCUSSION...
00Z deterministic models initialized the center of subtropical high
from SW of KELP to Davis Mtns region. Satellite more or less
confirms this with definitive monsoonal circulation noted - a
moisture rich and active theta-e ridge axis from Mexico into the 4
Corners Region with weak NW mid level flow across ern NM Plains and
S Plains. The wx forecast/pattern over the next few days will be
focused around these said features and their movement east (theta-e
ridge) and redevelopment w (subtropical ridge). Today slight
chance/chance PoPs will be mostly confined to the Trans Pecos and SE
NM, possibly a shower in the e. Caveat for today is this morning`s
outflow boundary that may be a focus across the PB. More interesting
is the wx on Monday when there will likely be an increase in coverage
of storms from Van Horn/GDP Mtns/SE NM before 00Z/Tue and into PB
after 00Z/Tue. Precipitable water will be +1 to +2 standard deviations
suggesting heavy rain will be a concern. Said storms will likely push
out an outflow boundary and thereby increasing potential for storms
across PB. As such will start to trend PoPs up. On Tue the theta-e
ridge axis will be across the heart of the CWFA from wsw-ene. Mid
level flow will likely still be NW and the best PoPs will be from
Davis Mtns into srn PB. We expect it to be hotter today than
yesterday across most areas, exception will be parts of Lea/Gaines
Co where precip has fallen early this morning. Optimistically, we
expect that increased clouds/precip will hold temps in check Mon
across Upper Trans Pecos/SE NM and if the rain is indeed widespread
enough temps may be suppressed some even into Tue. From Wed onward
it will be all about the heat as the subtropical ridge moves e and
builds across the CWFA resulting in a prolonged period of triple
digit heat across the plains with records possible.
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
44