Q: Thanks for helping me navigate these horrid markets of late. Do you have an opinion on DMD? A: DMD – Social networking is the next big thing, didn’t you hear?! Sigh. The problem with DMD is that it’s a clear also-ran in the social-networking world. And social-networking, like most things on the Internet, is mostly a winners-takes-all kind of business. So also-rans usually lose out and fade away over time. The company *might* earn up to 40 cents next year. That still makes it a 20x P/E, as the balance sheet doesn’t provide much cushion either. Revolution Investment rating: 3/10

A: Regarding AAPL options and trading here. The fact that I’ve been asked dozens of times in the last 48 hours for my opinion about buying AAPL options now that the stock is at 52-week highs is enough alone to keep me from adding to it right now. Holding the AAPL calls I was buying and telling you guys about back when it was $40 lower than the current quote or whatever. Revolution Investment rating for Apple common (which I own, along with calls that I bought lower): 8/10

Thinking About What Might Blow Up- David Merkel helped me make the decision to get out of my hedge fund entirely in late 2007 when the markets were topping. He predicted the US Credit Crisis and the current Sovereign Nation Crisis in the article he’s quoting here from back in 2007. Fast forward to today, and he says: “Aside from private equity, I was right on most of these. But what of today?” Read his latest take and give him your opinion of what might blow up next. What, besides the obvious of Greece/EU contagion is keeping you guys up at night? And more importantly, does any of that matter to Apple’s (AAPL) and Google’s (GOOG) and Qualcomm’s (QCOM) earnings three years from now?

13 cents away from a problem – Bruce is one of the best financial bloggers on the planet, frankly, and I read him every day. He’s more bearish about China in the near-term than I am, but this post is more about Bank of America and the financials anyway. As he puts it, “Jim Cramer is dead wrong. Another Lehman type event is staring us in the face. It will probably come first in Europe, but it will boomerang around and hit BAC hard.” A seriously must-read article for anybody long or short anything in the banking sector.

Back at the bottom the answer was nearly 100% consensus that it was the bulls who were scared. The answer sure isn’t obvious like it was at the time back then when the bulls were panicking and the bears were trying to get shorter.

Early Look: Italy Downgrade Priced In – I’d been mocked when I’d repeatedly mocked the unimportance of the Italy/Greece-contagion fears. Turns out, as the headline reads, that the markets had indeed already priced in the Italy/Greece-contagion fears. Indeed, it had more than than priced it in back during those August panics when we’d been buying tech common and calls. Take a look at a chart of the SPY, the DIA or especially the QQQ and you’ll see some very nice rallies.

I know a few folks over at Netflix, including Reed Hastings, the CEO and author of this strangely apologetic but still arrogant “reflection” and I can’t tell you what the heck he’s doing with this. I didn’t think the DVD and streaming pricing changes that Netflix put through a few months ago was that big of a deal. But if he thinks the revolt from the customers over this issue is about him needing to communicate better and not about the pricing and the lack of decent stream-able content on the site…then he’s got another thing coming.

Did Donald Trump call the peak in gold? – A couple years ago when oil had spiked and was at $130 or so, I once confidently bet Donald Trump Jr on national TV that oil would see the $30s before it’d see $150. In fact, his brazen bullishness on the commodity at that point emboldened me in a contrarianism kind of way. Oil peaked at $147 and subsequently dropped to $35 and I won that bet. You know what the payoff was supposed to be? His inheritance against mine. He hasn’t tracked me down to pay off. Anyway, I’d rather see Donald Trump saying gold is going to $10,000 an ounce instead of being in my camp as a gold bear. I am still waiting to re-enter my GLD short. Now I’ll probably wait longer. Sigh.

About The Cody Word

Cody Willard writes the Revolution Investing investment newsletter for MarketWatch and posts the trades from his personal account at TradingWithCody.com He is the founder of WallStreetAll-Stars.com and the principal of CL Willard Capital. Cody serves as an adjunct professor at Seton Hall University and is on the University of New Mexico Alumni Board. He was an anchor on the Fox Business Network, where he was the co-host of the long-time #1-rated show on the network, Fox Business Happy Hour. Cody, a former hedge fund manager, and his stock picks and economic outlooks have been featured on NBC’s The Tonight Show with Jay Leno, ABC’s 20/20, CBS Evening News, CNBC’s SquawkBox, Jon Stewart’s The Daily Show, as well as in the Financial Times, Wall Street Journal, New York Times, and many other outlets.