The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Ntxw wrote:In one of the biggest jumps you will ever see, this week's reading will drop all the way to -1.1C

Incredible. CFS is now lagging behind the real time Nino 3.4 data, with it currently having Nino 3.4 @ -0.5C and also peaking the event @ Nino -1.1C. Next update should be interesting. Wonder if we could get a super La Nina by spring.

Looking at the anomalies, it also looks like this Nina is trying hard to flip the PDO negative. Could we see a strong La Nina with a positive PDO?

Ntxw wrote:In one of the biggest jumps you will ever see, this week's reading will drop all the way to -1.1C

Incredible. CFS is now lagging behind the real time Nino 3.4 data, with it currently having Nino 3.4 @ -0.5C and also peaking the event @ Nino -1.1C. Next update should be interesting. Wonder if we could get a super La Nina by spring.

Looking at the anomalies, it also looks like this Nina is trying hard to flip the PDO negative. Could we see a strong La Nina with a positive PDO?

Could happen. Not unheard of. 1988-1989 was a strong La Nina in warm PDO.

The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

ENSO indicators seem to be mixed so far with the atmosphere still lagging as the SOI has not been able to take off as we would normally see in classic La Nina events. Its certainly there with the cool anomalies at the subsurface and surface though. CFS and other seasonal models skill levels begin to diminish at this stage but the CFS is now calling for a weak Nina for the beginning of the 2018 hurricane season.

What's interesting is that the CFSv2 doesn't show much of a pronounced, eastward-progressing North Atlantic cold pool through early spring. While visible, it doesn't seem to exert much of an influence on surrounding warm anomalies, and doesn't manage to (temporarily) displace them across the whole North Atlantic. By May–June, those cold anomalies retreat rather quickly, and a strong +AMO arc emerges on the CFSv2, with a warm tongue extending from Greenland south into the eastern subtropical Atlantic. Note that while the MDR is cool on the run, the CFSv2 has had a persistent long-range cool bias in that region; it ended up too cool for the past two seasons in the tropical Atlantic. However, note that the CFSv2 shows a pattern much more redolent of a classic +AMO than what we observed from 2013–16. In fact, it looks to be even more positive this winter/spring than it was in 2016–17. If this trend were to verify and ENSO were to remain neutral, then I would expect a potentially very active 2018 season, unfortunately. But I must stress that this is a very preliminary and early assessment.

Kingarabian wrote:ENSO indicators seem to be mixed so far with the atmosphere still lagging as the SOI has not been able to take off as we would normally see in classic La Nina events. Its certainly there with the cool anomalies at the subsurface and surface though. CFS and other seasonal models skill levels begin to diminish at this stage but the CFS is now calling for a weak Nina for the beginning of the 2018 hurricane season.

Of course after a cat 5 slammed PR,that is not what I want to see.

4 likes

Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

Kingarabian wrote:ENSO indicators seem to be mixed so far with the atmosphere still lagging as the SOI has not been able to take off as we would normally see in classic La Nina events. Its certainly there with the cool anomalies at the subsurface and surface though. CFS and other seasonal models skill levels begin to diminish at this stage but the CFS is now calling for a weak Nina for the beginning of the 2018 hurricane season.

Of course after a cat 5 slammed PR,that is not what I want to see.

Hoping for a quiet season next year. Welcome back! Your absence the past 2 months after the hurricane has well noticed. Glad you made it through.

7 likes

The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

Ntxw wrote:In one of the biggest jumps you will ever see, this week's reading will drop all the way to -1.1C

Incredible. CFS is now lagging behind the real time Nino 3.4 data, with it currently having Nino 3.4 @ -0.5C and also peaking the event @ Nino -1.1C. Next update should be interesting. Wonder if we could get a super La Nina by spring.

Looking at the anomalies, it also looks like this Nina is trying hard to flip the PDO negative. Could we see a strong La Nina with a positive PDO?

Unlikely for a few reasons. Super Nina is rare and there has never been 3 consecutive ONI readings below -2.0C. It is normal for weeklies to get high/low near the peak of an event (which normally occurs late fall-early winter). Many years have reached near +/- 2.0C in weeklies that did not correspond to such values in the trimonthlies. It is the ONI that matters and you need to reach strong negative values for several months in a row to get -2.0C. You can think probably -2.5 to -2.8C range for the weeklies for an ONI in the "very strong/super" range.

Most ENSO events show some degree of weakening by March--even if they later start developing again (2011,2014,etc.). Would need to see significant cold pool development along with stronger trade bursts with strongly positive SOI to support such rapid cooling.

I think most likely scenario is weak La Nina personally. That is what the overall progression seems to me. I think that with the pass filter in the dataset , the last ONI value will be pushed down to -0.5C..and we will get probably 4 more trimonthlies after that.. but ERSSTv5 is still new and is hard to see how it will measure.

1 likes

All posts by Dean_175 are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

NCDC's PDO rose a bit from October so we should see JISAO rise a little as well. In theory the stretch looks to continue.

ONI for SON comes in at -0.7C which is the first trimonthly this year officially Nina value. 4 more in a row will be needed.

0 likes

The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.