The trend estimate of turnover for the Australian Retail and Hospitality/Services series increased by 0.7% in September 2003 compared with August 2003. This follows increases of 0.8% in the previous four months.

The trend estimate increased in all states and territories except South Australia. The largest increases were in Queensland, Tasmania and Western Australia.

Over the three months to September 2003 the trend estimate rose by $349m. Food retailing (+$88m), Household good retailing (+$73m), Hospitality and Services (+$65m) and Other retailing (+$63m) showed the largest increases.

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED

The seasonally adjusted estimate of turnover for the Australian Retail and Hospitality/Services series increased by 0.6% in September 2003 compared with August 2003. This follows increases of 1.0% in August 2003 and 0.9% in July 2003.

The estimate of total turnover for September 2003 was 6.8% higher than September 2002.

ORIGINAL ESTIMATES

In original terms, Australian turnover increased by 0.2% in September 2003 compared with August 2003. Chains and other large retailers (which are completely enumerated) increased by 0.2%, while 'smaller' retailers (the sampled units) increased by 0.3%.

Australian turnover increased by 8.2% in September 2003 compared with September 2002. Chains and other large retailers increased by 8.7%, while 'smaller' retailers increased by 7.5%.

VOLUME MEASURES

The trend volume measure of turnover rose by 1.8% in the September quarter 2003. This follows an increase of 1.5% in the June quarter 2003. In seasonally adjusted terms, the volume measure rose by 2.7% in September quarter 2003.

NOTES

CHANGES IN THIS ISSUE

Quarterly chain volume data are shown in tables 14 and 15 of this issue.

SAMPLING ERRORS

Standard errors for the Australian estimates (original data) for September 2003 contained in this publication are:

Standard

Data Series

Estimate

error

Level of retail turnover ($m)

14,850.5

139.1

Change from preceding month ($m)

35.0

42.2

% change from preceding month (%)

0.2

0.3

Estimates for sampled businesses in the first month of each quarter can be influenced by the quarterly rotation of sampled businesses. This rotation is done to spread the reporting load across retailers and to ensure the sample remains representative of the population. At times, the businesses rotated into the sample can perform differently from the businesses they replace or those already in the sample. The potential impact of the quarterly rotation is reflected in the sampling errors for the relevant months. The rotation normally represents about 10% of the sample but the rotation for July 2003 was 19%. The increased rotation is associated with the new statistical infrastructure introduced in July 2002. For more details refer to the information paper, Improvements in ABS Economic Statistics [Arising from The New Tax System] (cat. no. 1372.0), released by the ABS on 6 May 2002. The higher than normal rotation has also had an impact on the September quarter 2003 chain volume measure estimates.

For more information see the Explanatory Notes, paragraphs 30-34, or contact Graham Phillips on 02 6252 5625.

INQUIRIES

For further information about these and related statistics, contact the National Information and Referral Service on 1300 135 070 or Graham Phillips on Canberra (02) 6252 5625.

INDUSTRY TRENDS

MONTHLY SEASONALLY ADJUSTED AND TREND ESTIMATES

TOTAL RETAIL

Trend growth has been strong over the last five months but the rate of growth eased in September 2003. Over this period all industries have experienced growth and Household good retailing, Recreational good retailing, Other retailing and Hospitality and services have had strong growth in each of these five months.

FOOD RETAILING

There has been weak to moderate trend growth over the last 15 months. Queensland and Tasmania have had strong growth over the last six months while Western Australia has had moderate growth. South Australia and the Australian Capital Territory were in decline in each of the last four months.

DEPARTMENT STORES

Trend growth has been weak for the last four months. New South Wales, Victoria, South Australia and the Australian Capital Territory were either flat or in decline in each of the last three months. After two months of strong growth, Western Australia's trend growth rate has been decreasing and was in decline in September 2003.

CLOTHING AND SOFT GOOD RETAILING

There has been weak trend growth in each of the last eleven months. Western Australia has had strong growth over the last five months, while New South Wales, Victoria, South Australia and the Northern Territory have been in decline in each of the last three months. The trend growth for Queensland was weak in September 2003.

HOUSEHOLD GOOD RETAILING

Trend growth has been strong in each of the last six months. Queensland, Western Australia, Tasmania and the Northern Territory have all had strong growth in each of these months. The trend growth rate for New South Wales and Victoria has been decreasing since May 2003 with Victoria having weak trend growth in September 2003.

RECREATIONAL GOOD RETAILING

There has been strong trend growth over the last five months. New South Wales, Queensland and Tasmania have had strong trend growth over this period, while Western Australia has had strong growth for most of this period. The Northern Territory had no growth in September 2003 after seven months of strong trend growth. Victoria has been in decline for 13 months and South Australia for the last four months.

OTHER RETAILING

Trend growth has been strong over the last eight months, after a long period of mostly moderate growth. Queensland has had strong trend growth since August 2002. New South Wales and Victoria have had strong trend growth over the last six months while South Australia and Western Australia have been flat or in decline since June 2003.

TOTAL RETAIL (EXCLUDING HOSPITALITY AND SERVICES)

The rate of trend growth for Total retail (excluding Hospitality and services) has been the same or slightly below that of Total industries (including Hospitality and services) for the last six months.

HOSPITALITY AND SERVICES

There has been strong trend growth over the last five months. Victoria, Queensland, Western Australia, Tasmania and the Australian Capital Territory have had strong trend growth over at least the last five months while South Australia had weak growth in this period. The Northern Territory was in decline in September 2003.

STATE TRENDS

MONTHLY SEASONALLY ADJUSTED AND TREND ESTIMATES

NEW SOUTH WALES

Trend growth has been moderate for the last six months. Household good retailing, Recreational good retailing and Other retailing have shown moderate or strong trend growth in each of these months. Clothing and soft good retailing has been in decline for the last nine months and Department stores has been flat for four months.

VICTORIA

Trend growth has been moderate in each of the last nine months. After five months of strong trend growth, Household good retailing had moderate growth in August 2003 and weak growth in September 2003. Other retailing and Hospitality and services have shown strong trend growth in each of the last five months. Recreational good retailing has been in decline since September 2002. Department stores and Clothing and soft good retailing were in decline in August and September 2003.

QUEENSLAND

Trend growth has been strong for six months. Food retailing, Household good retailing, Recreational good retailing, Other retailing and Hospitality and services have all shown strong trend growth in each of these months.

SOUTH AUSTRALIA

The trend has been in decline for the last four months. All industries, except Household good retailing and Hospitality and services were in decline in at least three of the last four months.

WESTERN AUSTRALIA

The trend growth has been strong for the last five months. The trend growth for Household good retailing has been strong since October 2002, and for the last four or five months for Clothing and soft good retailing, Recreational good retailing and Hospitality and services.

TASMANIA

The trend growth has been strong over the last six months. Food retailing, Household good retailing, Recreational good retailing and Hospitality and services have had strong growth in each of these months. Clothing and soft good retailing has been mostly flat over the last six months.

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