UFC 159 preview: As Florian says, Sonnen's best chance is to keep Jones on heels

In this case, it’s about how Chael Sonnen (27-12-1 MMA, 6-5 UFC) can possibly beat a man who, by all indications, is equal or superior than him in all aspects of fighting. A man who’s not only beaten far more accomplished men, but dominated them. A man who could be the greatest fighter of his generation.

That’s UFC light-heavyweight champ Jon Jones (17-1 MMA, 11-1 UFC), of course, and the opinion was offered by three-time title challenger turned TV analyst Kenny Florian. On Wednesday during a MetroPCS fan Q&A, he told fans of a simple strategy for Sonnen to pull off what UFC President Dana White said would be the biggest upset in the promotion’s history. The bout, which airs on pay-per-view (10 p.m. ET) following prelims on FX and Facebook (8 p.m. and 6:30 p.m. ET, respectively), headlines UFC 159, which takes place Saturday at Prudential Center in Newark, N.J. For Sonnen, really, it’s one of the only strategies not dependent on a lucky punch.

Pressure, pressure, pressure.

This week, Jones himself noted his ability to “mesmerize” opponents with his creative and unpredictable attacks, and he’s right. Mixing side kicks to the knees with winging hooks, spinning attacks and trip-takedowns from the clinch, and sharp, punishing elbows on the mat, he’s an opponent who’s hard to set up and hard to counter, whether you’re trying to strike with him or take him to the ground.

When you add to that a reach advantage that’s unparalleled in the sport, Jones can take you out of the fight before you really get in it.

But, as Florian and others have correctly pointed out, those tools aren’t as effective when the opponent isn’t stationary, and certainly not when he’s mesmerized. Jones has yet to face someone who’s made him fight on the defensive. He has yet to meet someone who’s gotten in his face at every turn and took the fight to him. Someone who turns a cagefight into a fistfight.

If Sonnen has proven anything in the past years, it’s that he’s capable of doing just that. He twice took the fight to the other scariest guy in the sport, Anderson Silva. He lost on both occasions due to lapses in defense and in judgement, and because he was fighting the most merciless counter-fighter in the octagon, they were mistakes he couldn’t afford to make. But because Jones hasn’t yet proven his ability to finish in the same sudden, violent way as his middleweight counterpart, the strategy becomes more plausible.

Thus far, we’ve seen Jones wear down opponents through methodical, relentless attacks – not one devastating one. If Sonnen succeeds early in shutting down the offensive rhythm Jones is known for, he might be able to lay the blueprint for beating the virtually unbeaten 25-year-old. While Sonnen has few of Jones’ athletic gifts, he is able to put opponents against the cage, or on their back and smother them. (He’s a flagship member of Team Quest, where that sort of thing was honed and patented.) It’s not aesthetically pleasing, but it can be effective, and it would even the playing field.

Of course, Jones could prove with Sonnen that he is a finisher. But it’s just the type of speculation that wrings some interest of a fight that should be a one-sided blowout. It takes away the clouding effect of all Sonnen’s noise in promoting the fight by the blueprint of an old pro wrestler.

Bettors are seeing things pretty clearly. Jones remains as high as an 11-to-1 favorite to win.

Other main-card bouts

Michael Bisping (23-5 MMA, 13-5 UFC) vs. Alan Belcher (18-7 MMA, 9-5 UFC): One a middleweight perpetually on the cusp of a title shot, and the other, a standout looking for his first position as No. 1 contender. The 34-year-old Bisping is fresh off a loss to Vitor Belfort that denied him a chance to fight champ Anderson Silva, which means a second consecutive loss would likely extinguish the possibility of getting a title shot. The 29-year-old Belcher, who most recently was smothered in a rematch with Yushin Okami, still has time to put together another run in the event of a loss, so he’s breathing a little bit easier. He’ll likely be putting his sprawl to use against the Brit, who’s recently taken to wrestling opponents known for their striking. Belcher is a little bit smoother on his feet and probably carries a slight edge in power, so if Bisping wants to ensure he doesn’t get derailed again, he’ll push his American opponent against the cage at every opportunity and take the fight to the ground. Belcher isn’t necessarily weak there, but Bisping would best be served by grinding out a decision. Otherwise, Belcher might stand poised to outpoint him on the feet.

Roy Nelson (18-7 MMA, 5-3 UFC) vs. Cheick Kongo (18-7-2 MMA, 11-5-1 UFC): Both veteran heavyweights who’ve been around the block more than a few times, Nelson comes in to the fight with twice the momentum as Kongo, who delivered one of the biggest duds in recent UFC history when he smothered Shawn Jordan en route to a decision win at UFC 149. And Nelson is poised to deliver a signature performance if Kongo performs as he has in recent fights, which is to say he’s been passive in the striking game and overly reliant on smothering opponents against the fence and on the mat. Kongo won’t be able to bully Nelson in either range, so he’s got to fight tall and let his hands and feet go. Nelson will look to knock him out with his patented overhand right, and if that doesn’t go well, he’ll use his considerable takedown skills to pound out a decision. If Kongo doesn’t deliver the type of performance that first brought him notoriety in the UFC, he’ll fall easily to Nelson.

Phil Davis (10-1 MMA, 6-1 UFC) vs. Vinny Magalhaes (10-5 MMA, 1-2 UFC): A matchup of contrasting grappling specialists, light-heavyweight contender Davis brings wrestling infused with submissions against jiu-jitsu ace Magalhaes. Assuming the fight hits the mat, the key question is whether Magalhaes is quick enough to get past the counter-grappling that Davis brings to the table as an experienced wrestler, and whether Davis is able to damage him along the way. Of course, the bout could, and probably might, play out as a standup battle. Neither is particularly known for his striking, so both might be emboldened enough to gun for the knockout. One of them, however, is going to get the short end of the stick sooner or later. Davis’ top-shelf wrestling pedigree gives him a slight advantage if the fight goes to the ground, but Magalhaes is a tricky threat.

Jim Miller (22-4 MMA, 11-3 UFC) vs. Pat Healy (29-16 MMA, 0-1 UFC): Strikeforce lightweight veteran Healy makes a long-delayed octagon return after twice being denied a fight with recent UFC title challenger Gilbert Melendez in the now-defunct promotion. He gets a stiff test out of the gate against Miller, who’s perpetually floating near the top of the division. Healy is just the kind of opponent fighters hate to fight because he’s so good at stifling attacks, but he’s also a slow starter, and Miller is fast out of the gate. If he doesn’t catch a submission early on, he could be in for trouble with Healy, who’s longer and heavier than him.