Thursday, July 31, 2008

More Poll Woes for Labour

The Telegraph has an incredible poll tomorrow. You can see the full results HERE. But here are some highlights - or lowlights if you are Gordon Brown, David Miliband, Jack Straw and especially Ed Balls!

* Conservative 47%, Labour 25%, LibDems 16%* 15% say GB is up to the job* 65% say GB is a liability, up from 25% in June 2007* 44% say Labour's prospects would improve without GB* 9% say GB "is in touch with people like me"* With David Miliband as leader Tory lead increases to 23%* With Jack Straw as leader Tory lead is 21%* With Ed Balls as leader the Tory lead is 33%, with Labour behind LibDems in third place* With Tony Blair as leader the Tory lead would be 9%

It doesn't really get much worse than that, does it? Just as well Labour MPs don't read the Daily Telegraph.

28 comments:

Just a reminder that opinion polls when public are asked how they would vote in hypothetical circumstances, the poll result is a very poor predictor of exactly how the public will react when those circumstances actually come to pass.

In any case the difference between the party votes under Gordon Brown, David Miliband and Jack Straw is within the normal sampling error of a poll and therefore there's no statistical significance to the differences.

"Just a reminder that opinion polls when public are asked how they would vote in hypothetical circumstances, the poll result is a very poor predictor of exactly how the public will react when those circumstances actually come to pass."

As Mike Smithson would no doubt point out, Brown's poll ratings match those found when the hypotheticals were done with Brown when Blair is PM.

Fraser Nelson has a compelling article in the Spectator, suggesting that Labour face permanent annihilation.

Part of the reason for this is the erosion of their voter base. He mentions Scotland of course, but also their lack of money and lack of strength in Local Authorities.

Then the discussion turns to options. He points out, almost in passing, that not many Labour MPs know how to do a proper job. We have already seen their propensity to keep their snouts in the trough. Nelson's theory is that they will hang on for grim death to their seats, avoiding an early election, because they will simply be on the dole after the election. He is erudite; "They are stuck in craven intertia".

Does this feed into the now well-rehearsed "scorched earth" scenario - the idea that Alistair Darling will be instructed to borrow and borrow again in order to give tax breaks and in order to maintain spending levels, leaving the Tories with a whopping bill? Worse still, Harperson would insitute more misandrist dictats. Why not? Why would they care?

Scotland as a whole might be more of an indicator of the fate of Labour than the local difficulty in Glasgow East. (As an Englishman living there, I don't pretend to be an expert, but a bystander).

Before Glasgow East, we saw the implosion of the nutty Trotskyist left and their endless subdivision into break-away subdivisions of the Judean Peoples Front. We also saw the Lib Dems fade into pointlessness after simply refusing to consider a referendum on independence and using that as an excuse to have a strop. They are now seen as baddies after propping up Labour. The Greens and the Conservatives are less hostile to the SNP and for good (but different) reasons. Annabel Goldie also opposes a referendum, but unlike the Lib Dems, she considers the needs of the Scottish people over party politicking, and you know, it will be noted. The Traditional Labour voters in Scotland were just that; anti war, truly socialist and ready to play fair by recognising the role of working people in building the commonwealth of the nation. New Labour is about none of these things. It is about revenge and scapegoating decent working people.

With Labour in meltdown up here, we are looking at just one major straw that will be one of many that brings the whole crappy Labour odyssey to a final end.

Voters tend to not to express such favourable views of politicians as potential leaders when they aren't so well known. A good but low profile politician may achieve a lower perference rating than the incumbent, only to be much more popular once they have the higher profile that comes with being the leader - assuming they prove to be a competent leader.

Jack Straw has been around a long time and is well known, so his rating is probably about right. David Miliband is still less well known and perhaps would get a boost once he became leader.

I suspect that Miliband's ratings would climb more if he is seen as the man that rid us of Brown, rather than sitting back waiting for someone else to stick the knife in.

Do these figures show whether The Voter is making the connection between the uselessness of Brown as PM now, and the uselessness of his legacy as Chancellor? If so a leadership change will never be enough to rescue New Labour.

I'm no fan of Brown & co but christ on a bike if Blair is the most popular current Labour figure in the UK what is wrong with this country?

Are people just gurning idiots who would vote for the guy they know even if he routinely shafts them? The electorate is like someone in an abusive relationship, no matter how bad it gets, they keep coming back for more.

I agree with David Boothroyd's and Martin's points about polls being unreliable when it comes to assessing potential leaders, particularly unknown figures. Though obviously Ed Balls would indeed be awful.

Gordon Brown's personality flaws are so clear that it is hard to see how replacing him with someone who wasn't thin skinned, paranoid, unable to take criticism, intensely partisan and foul tempered wouldn't improve Labour's fortunes.

I think the point is that people have made their mind up about Brown, who is regarded as a figure of ridicule. Blair seems better in contast, but in the cold light of day I think people would remember why they hated him so much before he left the scene.

I wouldn't put too much credence on the figures for the alternatives, except perhaps to point out that there is no single figure who is clearly in the lead and around whom Labour could unite.

It took 11 years for most people to realise that the NuLab crew were a bunch of idiots. That Blair was and is a conceited, arrogant ,money grabbing charletain who used a matey approach to keeping people on side. It worked but the damage done is incalculable. Unelected Brown thought to be the greatest chancellor of modern times turns out to have been a fraud. Now we the people of this once great country are paying the price.What an absolute mess. The sooner they are all kicked out the sooner we can start the long process of getting our country and dignity back. Brown - JUST GO

It took 11 years for most people to realise that the NuLab crew were a bunch of idiots. That Blair was and is a conceited, arrogant ,money grabbing charletain who used a matey approach to keeping people on side. It worked but the damage done is incalculable. Unelected Brown thought to be the greatest chancellor of modern times turns out to have been a fraud. Now we the people of this once great country are paying the price.What an absolute mess. The sooner they are all kicked out the sooner we can start the long process of getting our country and dignity back. Brown - JUST GO

I switched on Radio 4 this morning at about 9.15 and heard peal after peal of church bells. "Wow", I thought, "Gordoom has resigned". Sadness set in though when I realised it was Antonia Fraser on Desert Island Discs and she'd chosen bells as one of her records.Sill bitch, getting people going like that.

"Electoral calculus suggests that this would see Hoon, Hutton, Straw, Kelly, Jowell, Darling, Smith and Purnell lose their seats... oh and Clegg and Huhne!"

But the self-delighted Purnell is surely scurrying around trying to find a safe seat? If the worst comes to the worst at least he can fall back on all that money he made through Capital Gains tax avoidance.

I didn't say he would find one. Hopefully he will be kicked-out at the next election and never again have anything to do with the public sector. Until he is arrested for crimes against the State and People.