“The views expressed herein are those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of the National Weather Service or affiliate/related organizations. Please consult .gov sites for official information”

"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Tuesday, May 3, 2016

TODAY: Clouds and showers (even thunder after midnight along the east coast) has cleared out with sufficient clearing for ample heating and atmospheric destabilization. Overall precipitable water is not exactly 'abundant' yet is sufficient for storms to manifest mainly late day along moisture convergence boundaries namely along the east/west coast sea-breeze merger which should hold steadfast near I-95 give or take 5-10 miles either direction) given latest KSC sounding data , assuming nothing else significantly changes in the wind fields .KSC sounding revealed a significant dry layer between 700 - 500mb which without ample forcing would result in mainly low topped showers which in fact is what most model guidance is showing in their projections of late day 'radar simulations'. On the other hand, it does appear that the sea breeze will form with ample heating resulting in thermal spike down the spine of the state which could result in some low level yet broad cyclonic overtures across most of North Central down northern parts of South Florida. The Convective Temperature as of early today was up at 88F, which means at least mid-afternoon or later for true storms to form across Central Florida if not later (if at all).

That said - with ample CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) in place and upper level temperatures 'sufficiently cool' with 5C/-10C (700mb/500mb respectively) but not overly impressive -- storms could be able to generate along sea breeze mergers. It is possible that much of how today ends up will be contingent both upon the timing of the sea breeze mergers and how diffuse (or not) the west coast sea breeze will be as well as if that drier layer will 'fill in' a bit during the day.The better chance for storms at least in regard to coverage will be near and south of Lake Okeechobee, while the 'slightly better chance for more isolated but possibly stronger would be from near West Palm or Ft Pierce toward Mims and west toward far eastern Seminole/Orange Counties contingent upon how for west the east coast sea breeze manages to translate.The morning KSC Sounding showed wind aloft to be sufficient for wind gusts even in rain showers near 25-30pm but if a big storm goes up and punches through the dry layer a severe storm is not at all out of the question with winds in excess of 58 mph (or in the 'Severe' Category (CAT) ) WEDNESDAY: Not much change for this day in regard to timing of possible severe storms. The 4KM NAM shows severe near Tampa and strong to severe eastward toward the Cape Area by late morning (west side first) toward the east prior to or near noon time.On the other hand, the GFS focus is more on mostly moderate to heavy rains at times with thunder.Given increasing winds aloft with cold air present and the frontal boundary on the approach the "Marginal Severe Risk" is in place by The SPC (Storm Prediction Center) yet still for almost all of the state as the boundary works from North Florida to South Florida after dark. However tomorrow pans out will be most interesting as the NAM shows not much in rainfall at all. Its simulated radar shows cold cloud tops but little rainfall whereas the GFS has been consistent in a band from near I-4 south toward Vero Beach in a swath across the state of totals up to and even possibly exceeding 2" from late morning toward early evening. Central / North could be done with rainfalls prior to sunset even.BEYOND: Much cooler especially Friday and Saturday mornings with some mid-upper 50F's possible but likely warming quickly after sunrise. Cooler in the afternoons as well by 5-7F (perhaps) but what will make the biggest difference will be the drier quality of the air as opposed to the conditions we are now having and will continue to be in through Wednesday with the higher dew-points.No rainfall really expected then after Wednesday until mid-late week NEXT week.

No comments:

Monday, May 2, 2016

TODAY: Pattern change from past several days currently IN PROGRESS as we read this and will continue to be altered and be changing through Wednesday as high pressure that was over and near the Florida Peninsula is flattened toward the east and south into the Atlantic. The resultant southerly flow around the periphery of its western bounds combined with an upper level trough to dig southward (on both U.S. Coasts) will result in increasing West to WNW flow aloft through Thursday. Another 'Omega Blocking' like pattern is developing going into the weekend over the entire U.S. which put the breaks on active weather most everywhere except during a brief interlude across the interior U.S. in several days from now. In the interim...Increasing west to WNW flow well aloft especially going into near sunset and beyond combined with increased southerly low level flow ( with moisture) should result in a late afternoon 'sea breeze collision' type activities somewhere within 20 miles either side of the spine of the state. Prior to that time some showers will manifest along the westward progressing sea breezes in spotting fashion.Upper level steering will then press either rain showers, light debris type rain with mainly cloud cover, just plain old cloud cover, or even some thunder to the east coast from near Ormond or Daytona Beach as far south as North Brevard (possibly central) after dark. Overall the best chance of thunder though will be west of I-95 except further north into Central or Northern Volusia County. Other locations along the east coast might at least begin to become a bit cloudy prior to sunset either way.

TUESDAY: As expected per last blog post several days ago , this day and Wednesday appeared to be at that time the best storm chance days (with some activity possibly strong), and The SPC has upgraded the 'storm type' range to 'Marginal Conditions' for severe type storms on both days (for the time being at least) in their storm forecasts.Latest NAM and GFS though show very little activity on Tuesday whatsoever which does look a bit suspect. If some strong storms can form though expect they would be very close to the east coast mainly southern Volusia County and southward toward West Palm, but this day will have to wait for more details after today is done.WEDNESDAY: If Tuesday twere'nt bad enough, model guidance is all over the map this day with one version of the NAM advertising strong to severe storms as soon as mid-late morning Wednesday mainly Central to South Central Florida along a frontal boundary and ahead of it while other models wait off until noon time with mainly a shield of cloud cover with light to moderate rain and some embedded thunder. The GFS has been consistent with a band of heavier rainfall totals across all of Central Florida this day, but again, each model is different. Strong storms this day looks iffy as suspect there might be too much precedent cloud cover with unidirectional winds through the column . But again, this day is worth watching anyway... for beyond Wednesday comes...

....... THURSDAY-SATURDAY MORNING: Much cooler weather most notably in the post midnight to early morning hours. Morning lows down nearly 7-10F cooler than has been the case in the past week or so at least. Afternoons will still be warm but much drier. IN fact, no decent chance of rain fall might be in place until nearly not this weekend but the weekend after that (or beginning around the 12th of May)