Inside the Phillies with MLB.com beat writer Todd Zolecki

Has the Price Gone Up?

Pat Gillick talked this afternoon about the effect Carlos Beltran‘s trade to San Francisco has on the rest of the market with just four days to go before the trade deadline.

“When somebody goes off the market like Beltran goes off the market, then you say, well, OK, if he’s off the market that reduces the pool out there, so whoever we’re talking to you might have to up the ante because there’s one less guy out there,” he said.

If Gillick is accurate and the Astros are looking for four top prospects, which has been reported, then it seems like the Astros can dig in a little bit more.

Hey, the Giants gave up a top prospect for a two-month rental. You’ll have to give up more for a guy like Pence.

“You have to evaluate what your needs are, what your club has, what this player will do for your club, what you’ll get in return. You have to take all of this into consideration,” Gillick said. “And then probably most of the time with a club like ours you’ve got to be prepared to overpay a little bit. Sometimes to get what you want to have to overpay a bit.”

Will the Phillies overpay for Hunter Pence? It might start with Jonathan Singleton and Jarred Cosart. Would you throw in two more top prospects for Pence if that’s the starting price? Or is that too steep for a team that already has the best record in baseball and might be good enough to win the World Series as is?

I think it boils down to two things: 1) Is Pence a big enough talent that you see him as a top outfielder in this league for the next 4-5 years and 2) do you intend to sign him to a contract to keep him here for that period. If the Phillies say yes to both, then they should pull the trigger. I see him as a nice player, but not A perennial all star on a team where they struggle to find a player for the squad. Based on that, I would pass. Of course, if I was a great judge of baseball talent, I could be making a lot more money than I do now…

Stark reported that a deal was in the works and the Astros backed off. For a proven quantity like Pence, I’d sweeten the pot. As the old saying goes, A prospect is only suspect until proven. (or something like that)

A prospect may be a suspect, but a nice-but-not-great player having a career year on a terrible team is no sure thing, either. If Cosart and Singleton aren’t enough, then Rube shouldn’t even return Wade’s calls.

Let me get this straight. Since Pence has amassed numbers which in your opinion are similar to Werth and some fools, not the Phillies, paid Werth $126 million, the Phillies should join the Fools Parade and trade the farm for Pence because he is similar to a player to whom the Phillies would not pay $126 million. Did I follow you correctly on this point, Pinhead?.

My point was that Pence is better than Werth because he has done that in 5 years and it took Werth 9.
My “Mister $126 Million” nickname was just that. His salary is well-publicized. The point is that the people who watch Phillies games often don’t watch anything else. They have no idea who Pence is or what he does on a baseball field. You can’t get players like him for shiny beads and prospects.
They didn’t know who Raul Ibanez was when he showed up and thought that Danys Baez would help. Broaden your horizons. Watch some other games once in a while.

I know who Pence is. I actually had hoped the Phillies would get him when he was rumored to be part of the discussions when the Oswalt deal happened last year. He was an all-star this year and deserved to be. But he’s not a sure-fire, all-chips-to-the-center, difference-making bat. And I think Cosart and Singleton is more than a fair offer. Dom Brown and/or Worley would be too much.

Cosart and Singleton could never get that deal done. Single A prospects are not enough for an all-star quality starting RFer. Prospects are nothing more than the name states, and Pence is not a one-year wonder, as you infer. He is a solid MLB player who would be under the Phillies control through 2013. And no need to platoon with Hunter Pence. He’s a righthanded bat who hits left and righthanded pitching almost equally, if you take the time to look at his splits.

Just walk away Rube. Cosart and Singleton is already more than should be offered for an above average player.

Also, Muleman, Werth’s numbers were superior to Pence’s in every category other than batting average… which is meaningless since Werth dwarfs him in OBP. His numbers aren’t similar, they make him a poor man’s Werth.

It is silly to compare career numbers when Werth has a well documented history of playing with an injured wrist and being a bench player as a result. Look at their numbers the last 2 seasons when Werth was a full time player.

It is pretty clear. Pence is a poor man’s Werth. He is Jayson Werth Lite from what we had the last two years here. Pence’s career year this year is a mirage buoyed by an other worldly May and his numbers have been nosediving since. Dom Brown is easily outplaying him this month (.317 avg, .823 OPS vs .275 avg, .744 OPS). Heck I wouldn’t be surprised if Dom Brown had similar numbers to Pence for the 2nd Half of the season.

even given that Werth benifitted from playing with the Phillies and their lineup, Pence isn’t close to his numbers. He’s a great player, and may be a great addition, but he’s not the # 5 hitter Werth was while here. All that said, SIngleton to me is useless as he plays Howard’s posistion. Cosart may be great, but we seem to have quite a few baby aces on the way, and a few grown up ones sticking around for a few more years. I would ask if they’d pull the trigger for Singleton and Worley and perhaps throw in BenFan as an extra so it looks like a 3 for 1. THat’s 2 MLB ready players and a top prospect. Anything more is just being greedy. I wonder what Upton would cost? While not as good as Pence, he has the potential. Then again, how’s this OF sound: Mayberry, Werth and Brown.

What is it about Pence that you don’t understand? You can’t peddle your trash (Francisco) and prospects for a guy who has PROVEN that he is an All-Star caliber player. On the one hand, you’ll tell me that Werth benefitted from being in the Phillies’ lineup – and then say that Pence’s numbers aren’t close. Which is it? Put Pence in this lineup and you’ll see.

It’s the same level of ignorance that greeted Ibanez. “Oh, he’ll never replace Burrell.” Because people don’t pay attention to games outside of Philadelphia. Wake up. Pence is a stud.

Werth was a solid bat in Philly b/c he had stars batting in front of and behind him. In Washington, he doesn;t have the same caliber players and it is showing with his horrid year. Pence is holding his own (when compared to Werth) but he is playing on a listless Astros team. Put Pence in a Phillies lineup, and who knows? He may light up like pinball machine. Brown is a fool in the outfield and will never be an All Star….take that to the bank

The window is closing on this group of players for world series appearances. We have maybe 3-4 years to maximize our chances to get there, so Rube, do what ever needs to be done. Last thing I want is him to replicate Andy Reid by thinking he can get by with what he has, and then just get close. It’s world series or bust. I don’t want my home team to be the Atlanta Braves, bragging about division championships and few W.S. appearances.

If Pence is available, then yes trade some prospects to get him, not Worley or Brown. He is exactly what the Phillies would want in LF after the season when Ibanez’s contract runs out. That being said, I really do not believe that the Astros will want to trade him – he’s perfectly affordable and probably their best player.

Bottom line to this is that the Phillies need to refocus their targets. Wade is asking far too much for Pence, so they need to look at someone like Upton or Quentin. I don’t want a rental.
The Giants gave up their best pitching prospect for two months of Carlos Beltran. I would have given up Worley for him, but not Cosart or May. If you want my best pitching prospect, I want somebody I can control for more than two months.

Why would you be more reluctant to give up a prospect than a guy who has shown that he can actually get Major League hitters out? Cosart is really lighting it up in Clearwater. That’s a long way from the big leagues.
For all those “can’t miss” guys, there are guys like Worley who nobody talked about that become productive big league players. It’s a crap shoot, and if somebody wants an A-ball or Rookie league pitcher, I’d give him up for somebody that I KNOW can play in the big leagues. They’re trying to win something.

Part of any trade is how it effects your team next year. The Giants gave up a pitcher who may have helped them next year for a 2 month rental. Next year we have Halladay, Lee and Hamels as the top 3 in our rotation. I assume Oswalt isn’t returning (retirement). This leaves us with a need of 2 pitchers. We also have an OF next year of Shane in CF. The corners need to be filled by a combanation of Brown, Mayberry, BenFran, and whomever we can add to the roster. Given all this, do you trade Brown and/ or Worley for Pence? Given it upgrades one corner in the OF, but it still leaves you missing an OF and 2 starters.

If I can get Pence for Singleton, 2 baby Aces and some mid level fillers I go for it, otherwise I add a 4th OF to platoon with Brown/Mayberry for mid level prospects and move on.

While the window for this group is closing, we want to keep the window for the next group open.

Why do you include Francisco (if indeed that’s who “BenFran” is – Francisco is barely longer to type) in your future outfield?
Zach Wheeler is probably a good pitcher, but he still hasn’t gotten big league hitters out. The Giants are taking a chance that they can give up somebody of quality and win something. And who says they can’t sign Beltran next season? He’s not automatically a “rental.”
And, it’s affect, not effect.

Chewy59: Huh? Kendrick is just a “guy,” and I never got as worked-up over Happ as some did. Bystrom? What did he ever do in the big leagues except go 5-0 in September of 1980. A flash in the pan if ever there was one.
What’s your point?

That is exactly my point muleman. They were all flashes in the pan, Happ had proven he could get big league hitters out when he was a rookie. He was unheralded much like Worley. Thought to be a solid #4 pitcher just like Worley. Caught fire as a rookie and pitched way over his head just like Worley now. Now look at him, had an ERA of 6.00 last I checked. Phils fans acted like Kendrick was going to be a #2 or 3 starter for years to come after ’07. Bystrom won NL player of the month down the stretch. Whose to say Worley isn’t a flash in the pan like them? That he ends up a bullpen pitcher like Kendrick? Or he blows up next year like Happ? Or he is out of the big leagues in a couple years like Bystrom? All I am doing is questioning how Worley can have proven to be able to get big league hitters out after 2 months when Phils have had multiple pitchers do the same thing over the years only to fall apart the next season.

mule: whether they sign Beltran next year has nothing to do with the trade, he’s a FA so they could have signed him next year and kept their pitcher. Thanks for the correction on affect, always get that wrong. I include Francisco in next year’s OF because he’s signed to a contract for next year and will be here, or traded. I see no reason not to try to add him to any deal as clearly he’s not going to get any playing time.

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