Three Days of the #SFB480 Condor

Editor’s Note: The guest post below was written by Josh Hornsby. You can follow him on Twitter @FantasyADHD.

We’re now into day four of the #SFB480. … And below is a recap of the first three days.

The Big Picture

Here’s a look at the full draft positional splits, across all 40 leagues, thru 16 rounds. As you can see, quite a few drafts haven’t completed even the fifth round by 10:00 PM Wednesday night. The lambasting of slow drafters (*cough*) has provided a good deal of entertainment and open frustration on Twitter. It will be interesting to see if the pace improves as Thursday and Friday arrive, when working stiffs (*cough*) begin taking Mental Health Days at their day gigs and opt into a decreased pick time.

This plot knocks it out of the park for at-a-glance analysis. What you’re seeing are average positional splits across all 40 #SFB480 leagues. Running backs, as expected, start strong and continue growing their portion of the pie throughout the first 16 rounds. Runs may differ from league to league, but on the whole, RB consumes four to six picks of each round.

Streaming TE doesn’t appear to be the credo for the majority of the 480 participants, either. Drafters are cherry-picking one to two TEs per round starting in the sixth, and grow that to four picks a round by the 14th. The fourth round appeared to be the departure point for the RBx3, QBx2, and WRx3 crowd, as well, with a very noticeable spike in round percentage. You’ll see why shortly.

It’s still somewhat shocking to see so many QBs drafted early, even in this Superflex format. If we took a look at composite projections in this scoring system, I think we’d all agree that you could throw two darts between QB8 and QB24 and end up with players you’d have no problem starting every week. So far, one franchise has grabbed (horded?) four QBs. Another 93 (19.4 percent) have already drafted three QBs, looking to drive value at other positions in their direction, or using a shotgun approach with a Late Round, Robust QB approach to keep their superflex spot percolating throughout 2016.

What’s also interesting, to this point, is how prevalent WR remains, even in this castrated format. Early WR strategy hasn’t scurried away to the corner for this league.

Player ADP Observations

I have to say, I’m shocked to see Justin Forsett going this far ahead of Buck Allen, even with the kiss Forsett received in the news this week regarding this “top dog” status. Also odd is how much Kenneth Dixon has sprinkled across multiple rounds, but never with any volume. I’ll wait on clarity before committing here, but I believe the folks using 12th to 15th round picks on Buck Allen will love their ROI.

Yes, Karlos Williams is a tub of lard right now, but he should see enough simple touch volume to justify more than a 12th round pick. Add to this the news that LeSean McCoy continues to deal with nagging injuries, and I’m surprised that either Williams hasn’t received more love yet.

SFB480 participants don’t have much affinity for Jeremy Hill. While his rendition of Cedric Benson (BenJarvus Green-Ellis?) last season causes concern, it’s difficult to point at YPC numbers and say “yes, this man is a bad player.” He received a high number of totes inside the five-yard line last season, which, when combined with his taxing split with Gio Bernard, clearly bogs his average down. He’s still the man inside the Red Zone, and will see the rock when CIN needs a TD.

Just making sure you guys know that CLE QBs can be used in the superflex spot. I’m not making this up. Why would I? Trust me.

Tyler Lockett is on Doug Baldwin’s heels for value. We’ll see how this battle develops throughout the remainder of the week. I think they both have fair ADP. I expect SEA to progress 2-4 percent more pass heavy in 2016. If their efficiency in the second half of 2015 continues, that means a big boost to Lockett, and a strongly diminished regression for Baldwin.

As I discussed after Day 1, I think Jameis Winston’s perceived bump for #SFB480 is fallacious. He still continues to trend strongly against more viable candidates for PPC numbers. I think these three QBs are interchangeable, but Mariota still comes with a discount. I’m in for that ride at 4.11.

Two plots to relay one point. I’ve seen mentioned on Twitter by @DudeFantasyBro that Dion Lewis and Tavon Austin are the same guy with different perceptions because of their position. I couldn’t agree more. Their ADPs are still crazily disparate despite this fact. Austin includes the added bonus of his return game, which many may not account for when ranking and projecting. Better go for Arbitrage Dion Lewis and use those fifth round picks on one of the players in the below plot.

You should be drafting all three of these RBs higher than this. It’s a damned travesty. You could feasibly have all three on the same roster and win this league.

Still no clarity, but I think Darrius Heyward-Bey should get more attention than Markus Wheaton. He’ll play the lid-lifting role that ekes out 6-10 TDs each season.

I thought everyone hated Latavius Murray and thought of him as the least efficient player ever to tote the rock? Charlatans, the lot of you.

As much as Drew Brees spreads the ball around to scoring threats, I’m surprised Coby Fleener has drawn so much capital compared to Willie Snead, and to some degree, Bad Mike Thomas. I had an epiphany yesterday, and it involved Known Smart Guy Sean Payton using Bad Mike Thomas as his shiny new giant-sized Darren Sproles. If you think about it, he makes a ton of sense in the role, playing near the line of scrimmage and even handling four to six carries a game to go with four to six targets. There is definitely room for him in this offense, even with it seemingly crowded already. Note to self: Brandon Coleman.

I just wanted to point out Martellus Bennett is the perfect player for this offense, due to his blocking alone, yet will probably score 8-10 TDs to boot. He should receive more ADP love than this.

Those still waiting on QB have been granted a stay of execution. Unlike Tom.

The equal distribution here confirms what I mentioned above. Throw two darts, and you’ll be alright. Alex and Flacco are the bulls-eyes, though.

I expect the green and blue bars to move left and grow tall over the next two days. They deserve your, and Andrew’s, love.

Placing here so we can watch this trend develop. You’ll know Derrick Henry as the truth by the end of 2016.

I just thought this was fun to look at. Jordan Reed is fool’s gold.

rk.adp

pos

player

tm

pk

adp

med

min

max

sd

Tier 1

1

RB

LeVeon Bell

PIT

40

3.1

3

1

7

1.7

2

RB

Todd Gurley

RAM

40

4.3

4.5

1

9

2.1

3

RB

Ezekiel Elliott

DAL

40

6.3

7

1

11

2.9

4

RB

Adrian Peterson

MIN

40

8

8.5

1

17

4

5

RB

David Johnson

ARI

40

8.7

9

1

17

3.5

6

RB

Lamar Miller

HOU

40

10.9

10.5

3

18

3.9

Tier 2

7

RB

Jamaal Charles

KCC

40

18.8

19

10

28

3.8

8

RB

Devonta Freeman

ATL

40

19.9

20

10

33

5.4

9

RB

Doug Martin

TBB

40

23.9

23

15

34

4.1

10

RB

Mark Ingram

NOS

40

24.8

24.5

18

33

3.7

11

RB

Eddie Lacy

GBP

40

26.6

26

16

39

4.8

Tier 3

12

RB

LeSean McCoy

BUF

40

32.9

32.5

18

46

5.1

13

RB

CJ Anderson

DEN

40

34

34

15

53

6.8

14

RB

Carlos Hyde

SFO

40

36.4

36

24

50

6.3

15

RB

Matt Forte

NYJ

40

39

39

28

54

6.1

16

RB

Thomas Rawls

SEA

39

40.1

40

16

60

10.4

Tier 4

17

RB

Latavius Murray

OAK

39

51.1

51

35

92

11.3

18

RB

Dion Lewis

NEP

39

57.4

55

36

85

13.1

19

RB

Jay Ajayi

MIA

40

59.1

59

35

80

10.4

20

RB

DeMarco Murray

TEN

37

62.7

64

34

92

13.1

The chart above shows very clear divisions between subsets of the top tiers at RB. I think those will blend together a bit more throughout the remainder of the week.

Another colorful look at mini-tiers developing in WR ADP. Seeing players like Sammy Watkins and Randall Cobb driven down the board should be off-putting for most. I’m also glad to see Dez being so strongly drafted. His TD total will consume any doubt about target volume.

Bidding adieu, for now

Thanks (again) for working your way through this visual data. Hopefully it will guide your decision-making process, as it has mine. If you have questions about my scripting or method, or suggestions on expanded visualization, please find me on Twitter (@FantasyADHD) and fire away. Best of luck in your drafts!

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