"When the Giants Come to Town..." is my blog intended to chronicle my thoughts on San Francisco Giants baseball. My special interest is in prospects and the farm system, but of course, will comment on all aspects of the San Francisco Giants. I will also comment on baseball in general, particularly from a fantasy baseball perspective. I hope you will find the site informative, and invite you to join in the discussion.

Saturday, October 17, 2015

Down on the Farm: Giants 2015 Draft Review Picks 1-10

We'll review the first pro season performances of the Giants 2015 draftees. Just for fun, we'll assign a letter grade to the performance. Keep in mind the letter grade is for the current performance only and does not necessarily predict the future nor does it grade their overall value as a prospect. Once again, it's just for fun.

Round 1 Pick #18 Phil Bickford, RHP. Rookie AZL: 0-1, 2.01, 22.1 IP, 6 BB, 32 K's, GO/AO= 1.29. Over his last 3 starts, Bickford struck out 18 batters against just 2 BB's in just 8.1 IP. These numbers at a higher level would merit a solid A, but the Giants were cautious with their prized first rounder. Grade B+.

Round 1 Pick #31(Compensatory) Chris Shaw, 1B. Short Season: .287/.360/.551, 12 HR. Can't ask for a better pro debut than this. Shaw led the NWL in HR's by 2 and in SLG% by almost .050. Already the arguably the premier power hitting prospect in the organization although Mac Willamson might have something to say about that. Grade A!

Round 2 Pick #61 Andrew Suarez, LHP. Rookie AZL: 0-0, 1.80, 5 IP, 1 BB, 6 K's. Short Season: 1-0, 1.40, 19.1 IP, 2 BB, 15 K's. High A: 1-0, 1.80, 15 IP, 2 BB, 16 K's. The High A numbers are for the regular season only. Suarez also pitched 9 innings in the Cal League postseason with 7 K's against 1 BB. For a pitcher to make high A in his pro debut and then dominate a hitter's league like the Cal League plus get postseason experience is quite the accomplishment. Grade A!

Round 5 Pick #156 Ronnie Jebavy, OF. Short Season: .263/303/.419, 8 HR, 23 SB in 270 AB. Started slow out of the gate, but hit .281 in the second half of the short season. Very nice combo of power and speed. Gotta worry just a bit about how the BA plays at higher levels. Grade B.

Round 9 Pick #276. David Graybill, RHP. Rookie AZL: 0-0, 18.00, 3 IP, 4 BB, 2 K's. Big RHP who did not pitch a lot in college or in his debut. His relatively high draft position tells me the Giants think they can develop him along the lines of Big Joe Biagini. Grade F*.(asterisk means he is a project with upside).

With that kind of power you can sacrifice some of the BA. If he could hit 25HR+ and hit around .270-.275 I think that would be pretty exciting. In the MLB this year 40 players hit 25HR or more. Out of those 40 players only 16 of them hit .270 or better. Only 8 players hit .290 or better.

How about a rich man's Rizzo? Seriously, Rizzo is one name that comes to mind. Justin Morneau before the injuries. How about Adrian Gonzalez? Just as a rough estimate, I'll say his absolute ceiling is .280-.300 with 40 HR's. Median ceiling: .260- .280 with 30.

Does fielding factor in your evaluation? Vizcaino had 14 errors in 111 chances (SS & 3rd), Shaw had 8 errors in 295 chances and Gomez had 12 errors in 86 chances at 3rd and 5 errors in 142 chances at catcher. It appears this was Gomez's first time playing 3rd as it shows him playing catcher and some first base in the DSL. APGiants fan

Errors and fielding percentage are terrible measurements of true defensive ability at best and these are magnified in the lower minors due to bad fields, bad lighting and inexperienced players. Since advanced fielding metrics are not available for minor leaguers, you would need to look at scouting reports that account for things like range, arm strength and athleticism which are sometimes available and sometimes accurate.

About Me

I grew up in Northern California near the Napa Valley. I got interested in baseball and the Giants by listening to Russ Hodges and Lon Simmons broadcast Giants games on KSFO. My early heros were Willie Mays, Willie McCovey, Juan Marichal and a guy you don't always think of, Jim Ray Hart. When I got older and was in school and early career, I didn't have time to follow as closely, but I tried to look up their boxscores each day and catch an occasional game on TV. One habit I got into at an early age was looking up the stats of their minor league players in The Sporting News. That became more difficult as TSN moved away from comprehensive baseball coverage. Now, of course, technology and affluence has changed all that. The internet is teaming with farm system/minor league information as well as college and high school baseball. Satellite TV enables me to get most of the Giants games on TV. I'm married with 2 wonderful daughters, who like to watch games with me.