Winter weather: Godzilla El Niño favored to kick NW Blob’s ass

Scene: Godzilla El Niño walks into a bar and there sits smokin’ hot California with an empty glass. Always generous, Godzilla approaches the bar and orders a double for California … a bit more than Cal wants in one sitting, but what the hell. The bartender puts on a sheepish look and glances down the dark bar at the pub’s newest bully — the NW Blob (with Washington cowering behind it).

Godzilla in a scene from the film “Godzilla vs. The Smog Monster,” 1971. (Photo by Toho/Getty Images)

Godzilla and The Blob lock eyes and prepare to fight it out for control over the bar … (hey, it’s a Western!)

Anyway, like all Hollywood movies, who will win is apparently a forgone collusion since Godzilla is almost always helping out humankind. And, that’s pretty much how climatologists are seeing the current matchup playing out in the Pacific right now.

An “El Niño,” when the central and eastern area of the tropical Pacific are warmer than usual, is growing so strong that it’s been predicted to be the strongest in a generation:

“This definitely has the potential of being the Godzilla El Niño,” Bill Patzert, a climatologist with NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory told the LA Times. “If this lives up to its potential, this thing can bring a lot of floods, mudslides and mayhem.”

“Places that are normally dry get extremely wet, and of course that would include the American West,” Patzert told CBC News. “So we’re kayaking down the street in Los Angeles, and they’re playing golf in February in Minneapolis.”

In fact, he says, it could be bigger than the El Niño of 1997 … which brought floods, mudslides and hurricanes to California (and slightly warmer and drier winter to Washington). NOAA predicts there “is a greater than 90 percent chance that El Niño will continue through Northern Hemisphere winter 2015-16, and around an 85 percent chance it will last into early spring 2016.”

The only thing standing in its way is The NW Blob, a big pool of warm water off Washington’s coast that has been wreaking havoc in the Northwest: Hotter then normal this … drier than normal that … and, as a kicker, wildfires and a troubled Puget Sound (see video at bottom of story).

If The Blob and the high pressure system that sustains it remain over the winter, it could push all that moisture (possibly more than even California wants in one winter, but better than a continued drought) north, leaving California and the Northwest with empty glasses.

Santa Rosa resident Alexander Oceguera talks with, from left clockwise, Kelsey Merian of Windsor, Roxanne Zettler of Point Arena and Christina Mertensotto of Santa Rosa in a drought ravaged Russian River, ... more

Photo: Kent Porter, Associated Press

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Things are looking especially dry at Big Bear Lake in California, as seen in this Aug. 24, 2015, photo. California cities cut water use by a combined 31 percent in July, exceeding the governor's statewide mandate to conserve, officials said Thursday, Aug. 27. The strong water conservation figures show California residents are beginning to understand the dire need to cut back in a fourth year of drought, Felicia Marcus, chair of the State Water Resources Control Board, said. less

Things are looking especially dry at Big Bear Lake in California, as seen in this Aug. 24, 2015, photo. California cities cut water use by a combined 31 percent in July, exceeding the governor's statewide ... more

Photo: Nick Ut, Associated Press

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Volunteer Ivette Portela bottle feeds a young fawn at the Kindred Spirits Fawn Rescue in Loomis, Calif. on Tuesday, July 28, 2015. California's historic drought has caused a scarcity of food in the wild that has been blamed for unusual animal activity. Kindred Spirits founder Diane Nichols believes it has caused an increase of the fawns being brought to facility, many coming in under nourished ad dehydrated. less

Volunteer Ivette Portela bottle feeds a young fawn at the Kindred Spirits Fawn Rescue in Loomis, Calif. on Tuesday, July 28, 2015. California's historic drought has caused a scarcity of food in the wild that ... more

Photo: Rich Pedroncelli, Associated Press

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A pair of fawn's are seen at the Kindred Spirits Fawn Rescue in Loomis on July 28, 2015. California's historic drought has caused a scarcity of food in the wild that has been blamed for unusual animal activity. less

A pair of fawn's are seen at the Kindred Spirits Fawn Rescue in Loomis on July 28, 2015. California's historic drought has caused a scarcity of food in the wild that has been blamed for unusual animal ... more

Photo: Rich Pedroncelli, Associated Press

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This Sept. 3, 2015 photo shows a dried-out lawn at Los Angeles City Hall, with a sign explaining that irrigation has been shut off due to the ongoing drought.

This Sept. 3, 2015 photo shows a dried-out lawn at Los Angeles City Hall, with a sign explaining that irrigation has been shut off due to the ongoing drought.

Photo: Nick Ut, Associated Press

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Cattle, grazing on a barren hillside in Tulare County, stand outside of Porterville, Calif on July 2, 2015. The herd is forced to search the parched Tulare County hills for the dwindling vegetation as California endures a fourth year of drought. less

Cattle, grazing on a barren hillside in Tulare County, stand outside of Porterville, Calif on July 2, 2015. The herd is forced to search the parched Tulare County hills for the dwindling vegetation as ... more

Photo: Gregory Bull, Associated Press

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This Monday, Aug. 24, 2015 photo shows a boat dock by the lake bed where water has dried due to the drought at Big Bear Lake.

This Monday, Aug. 24, 2015 photo shows a boat dock by the lake bed where water has dried due to the drought at Big Bear Lake.

Photo: Nick Ut, Associated Press

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A young fawn climbs up a holding pen as it waits to be fed at the Kindred Spirits Fawn Rescue in Loomis. on July 28, 2015. California's historic drought has caused a scarcity of food in the wild that has been blamed for unusual animal activity. less

A young fawn climbs up a holding pen as it waits to be fed at the Kindred Spirits Fawn Rescue in Loomis. on July 28, 2015. California's historic drought has caused a scarcity of food in the wild that has been ... more

Photo: Rich Pedroncelli, Associated Press

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In this photo taken Tuesday, July 28, 2015, Diane Nichols, right, founder of the Kindred Spirits Fawn Rescue, takes an injured fawn brought to the facility from Placer County Animal Control Officer Terri Koeckritz, in Loomis. California's historic drought has caused a scarcity of food in the wild that has been blamed for unusual animal activity. less

In this photo taken Tuesday, July 28, 2015, Diane Nichols, right, founder of the Kindred Spirits Fawn Rescue, takes an injured fawn brought to the facility from Placer County Animal Control Officer Terri ... more

Photo: Rich Pedroncelli, Associated Press

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This July 16, 2015 photo shows a dried-out stream at Horseshoe Meadow in the Golden Trout Wilderness of the Sierra Nevada near Lone Pine. A report by the Public Policy Institute of California nonprofit think-tank paints a distressing picture of California for the next two years if the state's driest four years on record stretches further into the future. less

This July 16, 2015 photo shows a dried-out stream at Horseshoe Meadow in the Golden Trout Wilderness of the Sierra Nevada near Lone Pine. A report by the Public Policy Institute of California nonprofit ... more

Photo: : John Antczak, Associated Press

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In this photo taken Tuesday, July 28, 2015, a pair of fawn's feed from bottles at the Kindred Spirits Fawn Rescue in Loomis. California's historic drought has caused a scarcity of food in the wild that has been blamed for unusual animal activity. less

In this photo taken Tuesday, July 28, 2015, a pair of fawn's feed from bottles at the Kindred Spirits Fawn Rescue in Loomis. California's historic drought has caused a scarcity of food in the wild that has ... more

Photo: Rich Pedroncelli, Associated Press

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In this photo taken Tuesday, July 28, 2015, Diane Nichols carries an injured fawn into an enclosure at her Kindred Spirits Fawn Rescue in Loomis. California's historic drought has caused a scarcity of food in the wild that has been blamed for unusual animal activity. (AP Photo/Rich Pedroncelli) less

In this photo taken Tuesday, July 28, 2015, Diane Nichols carries an injured fawn into an enclosure at her Kindred Spirits Fawn Rescue in Loomis. California's historic drought has caused a scarcity of food in ... more

Photo: Rich Pedroncelli, Associated Press

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The dried up bed of the Guadalupe River in San Jose, photographed on July 17, 2015. A new study says dying wildlife, bigger wildfires and drying-up farm towns will be the biggest crises if California's four-year drought continues. A report released overnight Wednesday to Thursday, Aug. 20, by the Public Policy Institute of California non-profit think-tank sketches that picture of California in 2016, and 2017, if the state's driest four years on record stretches into a fifth, or sixth, year of drought. less

The dried up bed of the Guadalupe River in San Jose, photographed on July 17, 2015. A new study says dying wildlife, bigger wildfires and drying-up farm towns will be the biggest crises if California's ... more

Photo: Jim Gensheimer, Associated Press

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A dust devil makes its way across hot land made white from dried minerals as a result of the natural lake-bottom buildup and evaporation process April 10, 2015 near Kings County. The land is situated in part of the San Joaquin Valley that used to contain the Tulare Lake, the largest freshwater lake in the western half of the continental United States. The lake was dried up by the year 1900 due to emerging agriculture in the region. less

A dust devil makes its way across hot land made white from dried minerals as a result of the natural lake-bottom buildup and evaporation process April 10, 2015 near Kings County. The land is situated in part ... more

Photo: Leah Millis, The Chronicle

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Nick Zaninovich, Chief of Operations for South Central California Office Millerton Lake looks for birds during a media tour of Millerton Lake and the proposed place where Temperance Dam would be built July 17, 2015 in Fresno County, near Friant, Calif. The proposed Temperance Flat dam would be built above Millerton Lake along the San Joaquin river and it would hold about 1.2 million acre feet of water. The low level of the lake can be seen from the water line along the shore. less

Nick Zaninovich, Chief of Operations for South Central California Office Millerton Lake looks for birds during a media tour of Millerton Lake and the proposed place where Temperance Dam would be built July 17, ... more

Photo: Leah Millis, The Chronicle

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Hydrologic technician for Friant dam Jason Smith, left, drives a boat for a media tour on Millerton Lake, where Temperance Dam would be built as Nick Zaninovich, Chief of Operations for South Central California Office of Fresno talks on the walky-talky to an employee July 17, 2015 near Friant. The proposed Temperance Flat dam would be built above Millerton Lake along the San Joaquin river and it would hold about 1.2 million acre feet of water. less

Hydrologic technician for Friant dam Jason Smith, left, drives a boat for a media tour on Millerton Lake, where Temperance Dam would be built as Nick Zaninovich, Chief of Operations for South Central ... more

Photo: Leah Millis, The Chronicle

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Mark Hazarian stands beside a depleted pond on the property of his neighbor, Dorothy Ziegler, in Oak Run (Shasta County) on Friday, July 31, 2015. Hazarian, Ziegler and others have watched a creek that flows through their properties dwindle due to the drought and diversions for marijuana grows. less

Mark Hazarian stands beside a depleted pond on the property of his neighbor, Dorothy Ziegler, in Oak Run (Shasta County) on Friday, July 31, 2015. Hazarian, Ziegler and others have watched a creek that flows ... more

Photo: Terray Sylvester, Special To The Chronicle

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Withered apples hang from a fruit tree on the property of Mark Harzarian and Linda Tucker in Oak Run (Shasta County) on Friday, July 31, 2015. Harzarian and Tucker have watched a creek on their property dwindle due to the drought and diversions for marijuana grows. They've reduced the size of their garden in response. less

Withered apples hang from a fruit tree on the property of Mark Harzarian and Linda Tucker in Oak Run (Shasta County) on Friday, July 31, 2015. Harzarian and Tucker have watched a creek on their property ... more

Photo: Terray Sylvester, Special To The Chronicle

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Gillian Flaccus' daughter leaned to brush her teeth without leaving the water running at the family's home, Thursday, Aug. 20, 2015 near Los Angeles. Flaccus, an Associated Press reporter, and her husband are using the California drought to teach their children life lessons about conservation. less

Gillian Flaccus' daughter leaned to brush her teeth without leaving the water running at the family's home, Thursday, Aug. 20, 2015 near Los Angeles. Flaccus, an Associated Press reporter, and her husband are ... more

Photo: Chris Carlson, Associated Press

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Pipes used to count fish as part of University of California Cooperative Extension & Cal Sea Grant's Coho Salmon Monitoring Project stick out of a low Palmer Creek, making it difficult for the fish to be counted June 17, 2015 along Mill Creek, outside of Healdsburg, Calif. The State Water Board was considering adoption of emergency water regulation during a public meeting June 16-17 in the Russian River tributary watersheds to protect the coho salmon and steelhead living in the rivers. Among the conservation requirements; the measures would forbid turf watering except with gray water and allow for two days a week watering for all other landscapes from 8pm-8am. It would also forbid car washing except with gray water or if it's part of a recirculating system. less

Pipes used to count fish as part of University of California Cooperative Extension & Cal Sea Grant's Coho Salmon Monitoring Project stick out of a low Palmer Creek, making it difficult for the fish to be ... more

Photo: Leah Millis, The Chronicle

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Oliver Max, manager of his family-owned sustainable timber-harvesting business Felta Redwoods, LLC walks for a portrait on the part of his land where Mill Creek runs through it June 17, 2015 outside of Healdsburg, Calif. Max's business owns 2100 acres in the area and Mill Creek runs through it for about a mile. Though the regulations will not effect his company directly because they use a different water source, Max has been working with California Fish and Wildlife on stream restoration projects for years as well as recently brainstorming water conservation ideas with them. The State Water Board was considering adoption of emergency water regulation during a public meeting June 16-17 in the Russian River tributary watersheds to protect the coho salmon and steelhead living in the rivers. Among the conservation requirements; the measures would forbid turf watering except with gray water and allow for two days a week watering for all other landscapes from 8pm-8am. It would also forbid car washing except with gray water or if it's part of a recirculating system. less

Oliver Max, manager of his family-owned sustainable timber-harvesting business Felta Redwoods, LLC walks for a portrait on the part of his land where Mill Creek runs through it June 17, 2015 outside of ... more

Photo: Leah Millis, The Chronicle

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In this Tuesday, July 28, 2015 photo, volunteer Ivette Portela places bottles of formula in to a basket to feed orphaned fawns at the Kindred Spirits Fawn Rescue in Loomis, Calif. California's historic drought has caused a scarcity of food in the wild that has been blamed for unusual animal activity. (AP Photo/Rich Pedroncelli) less

In this Tuesday, July 28, 2015 photo, volunteer Ivette Portela places bottles of formula in to a basket to feed orphaned fawns at the Kindred Spirits Fawn Rescue in Loomis, Calif. California's historic drought ... more

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In this Aug. 3, 2015, file photo CalFire firefighter Bo Santiago lights a backfire as the Rocky fire burns near Clearlake, Calif. A new study says dying wildlife, bigger wildfires and drying-up farm towns will be the biggest crises if California's four-year drought continues. A report released overnight Wednesday to Thursday, Aug. 20, by the Public Policy Institute of California non-profit think-tank sketches that picture of California in 2016, and 2017, if the state's driest four years on record stretches into a fifth, or sixth, year of drought. (AP Photo/Josh Edelson, File) less

In this Aug. 4, 2015, file photo, plants burned in the Rocky Fire are shown near Lower Lake, Calif. Carcasses of the last of more than a dozen species of California trout, salmon and other native species, all now extinct, lie in dry streambeds. A new study says dying wildlife, bigger wildfires and drying-up farm towns will be the biggest crises if California's four-year drought continues. A report released overnight Wednesday to Thursday, Aug. 20, by the Public Policy Institute of California non-profit think-tank sketches that picture of California in 2016, and 2017, if the state's driest four years on record stretches into a fifth, or sixth, year of drought. (AP Photo/Jeff Chiu, File) less

In this Aug. 4, 2015, file photo, plants burned in the Rocky Fire are shown near Lower Lake, Calif. Carcasses of the last of more than a dozen species of California trout, salmon and other native species, all ... more

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In this May 18, 2015, file photo, irrigation pipes hang along a dried irrigation canal on a field farmed by Gino Celli near Stockton, Calif. California's drought-stricken cities set a record for water conservation, reducing usage 29 percent in May, according to data released by a state agency Wednesday, July 1, 2015. (AP Photo/Rich Pedroncelli, File) less

In this May 18, 2015, file photo, irrigation pipes hang along a dried irrigation canal on a field farmed by Gino Celli near Stockton, Calif. California's drought-stricken cities set a record for water ... more

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In this July 1, 2015 photo, Tree Dunlap stands behind the family's dry well in their community of Okieville, on the outskirts of Tulare, Calif. Since the well dried up, the Dunlap family has been forced to find water elsewhere, including applying for programs that provide bottled water. (AP Photo/Gregory Bull) less

In this July 1, 2015 photo, Tree Dunlap stands behind the family's dry well in their community of Okieville, on the outskirts of Tulare, Calif. Since the well dried up, the Dunlap family has been forced to ... more

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In this July 2, 2015 Elias Trejo, center, throws a ball with his sister, Celeste, left, on the dry dirt where the family's lawn once stood in the community of Okieville, on the outskirts of Tulare, Calif. As California endures a fourth year of drought, water scarcity has become the new normal, inconveniencing millions of people who are urged to flush toilets less often, take shorter showers and let lawns turn brown. (AP Photo/Gregory Bull) less

In this July 2, 2015 Elias Trejo, center, throws a ball with his sister, Celeste, left, on the dry dirt where the family's lawn once stood in the community of Okieville, on the outskirts of Tulare, Calif. As ... more

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In this July 2, 2015 picture, Christine Dunlap poses for a picture as she holds an image of her Oklahoma ancestors in their community of Okieville, on the outskirts of Tulare, Calif. The Dunlap family have lived in Okieville since it was an Okieville - a term used for migrant camps set up for Midwesterners fleeing drought to California in the 1930s. (AP Photo/Gregory Bull) less

In this July 2, 2015 picture, Christine Dunlap poses for a picture as she holds an image of her Oklahoma ancestors in their community of Okieville, on the outskirts of Tulare, Calif. The Dunlap family have ... more

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Above: Houseboats are dwarfed by the steep banks of Lake McClure on March 24, 2015 in Snelling, California. More than 3,000 residents in the Sierra Nevada foothill community of Lake Don Pedro who rely on water from Lake McCLure could run out of water in the near future if the severe drought continues. Lake McClure is currently at 7 percent of its normal capacity and residents are under mandatory 50 percent water use restrictions. less

Above: Houseboats are dwarfed by the steep banks of Lake McClure on March 24, 2015 in Snelling, California. More than 3,000 residents in the Sierra Nevada foothill community of Lake Don Pedro who rely on water ... more

Photo: Justin Sullivan, Getty Images

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Aerial view overlooking landscaping on April 4, 2015 in San Diego, California. Gov. Jerry Brown has demanded a 25 percent cut in urban water useage due to a severe drought affecting much of California and the West. Everyone from Campuses, golf courses and other industrial and recreational facilities, as well as personal, home useage are specifically targeted. less

Aerial view overlooking landscaping on April 4, 2015 in San Diego, California. Gov. Jerry Brown has demanded a 25 percent cut in urban water useage due to a severe drought affecting much of California and the ... more

Photo: Sandy Huffaker, Getty Images

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Rolling hills viewed on April 5, 2015, near Santa Ynez, California.

Rolling hills viewed on April 5, 2015, near Santa Ynez, California.

Photo: George Rose, Getty Images

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Dry cracked earth is visible on the dry Guadalupe Creek on April 3, 2015 in San Jose, California. As California enters its fourth year of severe drought and the state's snowpack is at record lows, little water runoff is reaching reservoirs and recharge ponds that capture water and that percolates through the soil to replenish underground aquifers. California Gov. Jerry Brown has ordered a statewide 25 percent mandatory water useage reduction for residents and businesses. Significant cuts in use will be imposed on cemeteries, golf courses and facilities with large landscapes. less

Dry cracked earth is visible on the dry Guadalupe Creek on April 3, 2015 in San Jose, California. As California enters its fourth year of severe drought and the state's snowpack is at record lows, little water ... more

Photo: Justin Sullivan, Getty Images

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ZL Construction worker Raul Buenrostro (R) bails water out from a pool as co-worker Alex Hernandez (L) prepares to operate a jackhammer during the demolition of a swimming pool at an apartment complex on April 8, 2015 in Hayward, California. As California enters its fourth year of severe drought, some California residents are opting to have their home swimming pools removed as they face a mandatory 25 percent reduction in water use. less

ZL Construction worker Raul Buenrostro (R) bails water out from a pool as co-worker Alex Hernandez (L) prepares to operate a jackhammer during the demolition of a swimming pool at an apartment complex on April ... more

Photo: Justin Sullivan, Getty Images

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Dan Green fills buckets with recycled water at the Dublin San Ramon Services District (DSRSD) residential recycled water fill station on April 8, 2015 in Pleasanton, California. As California enters its fourth year of severe drought, the DSRSD is allowing residents to pick up free recycled water to be used to water trees, gardens, and lawns. Residents can California residents are facing a mandatory 25 percent reduction in water use. less

Dan Green fills buckets with recycled water at the Dublin San Ramon Services District (DSRSD) residential recycled water fill station on April 8, 2015 in Pleasanton, California. As California enters its fourth ... more

Photo: Justin Sullivan, Getty Images

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Carlos Salguero, of the Onelawn lanscaping company, installs a section of articficial lawn at a home April 3, 2015 in Burlingame, California. As California enters its fourth year of severe drought, artificial lawns have emerged as a water saving alternative to traditional lawns for Californians who are facing a mandatory 25% reduction in water use announced by California Gov. Jerry Brown earlier this week. less

Carlos Salguero, of the Onelawn lanscaping company, installs a section of articficial lawn at a home April 3, 2015 in Burlingame, California. As California enters its fourth year of severe drought, artificial ... more

Photo: Justin Sullivan, Getty Images

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East Bay Municipal Utility District (EBMUD) water conservation technician Rachel Garza inspects a sprinkler system as she performs a water conservation audit of a home on April 7, 2015 in Walnut Creek, California. As California enters its fourth year of severe drought, EBMUD and water districts throughout the state are assisting customers with finding ways to reduce water use at their homes. California residents are facing a mandatory 25 percent reduction in water use. less

East Bay Municipal Utility District (EBMUD) water conservation technician Rachel Garza inspects a sprinkler system as she performs a water conservation audit of a home on April 7, 2015 in Walnut Creek, ... more

Photo: Justin Sullivan, Getty Images

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A sprinkler waters a lawn on April 7, 2015 in Walnut Creek, California. As California enters its fourth year of severe drought, EBMUD and water districts throughout the state are assisting customers with finding ways to reduce water use at their homes. California residents are facing a mandatory 25 percent reduction in water use. less

A sprinkler waters a lawn on April 7, 2015 in Walnut Creek, California. As California enters its fourth year of severe drought, EBMUD and water districts throughout the state are assisting customers with ... more

Photo: Justin Sullivan, Getty Images

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Aerial view overlooking landscaping on April 4, 2015 in San Diego, California. Gov. Jerry Brown has demanded a 25 percent cut in urban water useage due to a severe drought affecting much of California and the West. Everyone from Campuses, golf courses and other industrial and recreational facilities, as well as personal, home useage are specifically targeted. less

Aerial view overlooking landscaping on April 4, 2015 in San Diego, California. Gov. Jerry Brown has demanded a 25 percent cut in urban water useage due to a severe drought affecting much of California and the ... more

Photo: Sandy Huffaker, Getty Images

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A dead fish lies on the shore next to the North Shore Yacht Club at the Salton Sea, California on March 19, 2015. California's largest lake is facing major environmental problems with a decreasing water level, increasing salinity and algae issues. less

A dead fish lies on the shore next to the North Shore Yacht Club at the Salton Sea, California on March 19, 2015. California's largest lake is facing major environmental problems with a decreasing water level, ... more

Photo: MARK RALSTON, AFP/Getty Images

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Foliage and flowers the extremely low waters of Lake Success in the wake of recent storms but rain totals remain insufficient to break the worsening drought on February 11, 2015 near East Porterville, California. Many local residents, whose water wells have run dry, fill their tanks with free non-potable water for flushing toilets, bathing and laundering and use bottled water for drinking and washing dishes. Many of the dry wells of 926 homes in Tulare County dried up last summer when some 17 California communities ran out of water. less

Foliage and flowers the extremely low waters of Lake Success in the wake of recent storms but rain totals remain insufficient to break the worsening drought on February 11, 2015 near East Porterville, ... more

Photo: David McNew, Getty Images

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California Governor Jerry Brown accompanies Frank Gehrke, chief of snow surveys for the California Department of Water Resources, as he conducts a manual snow survey April 1, 2015 in Phillips, California. The recorded level is zero, the lowest in recorded history for California. Gov. Brown went on to announce mandatory statewide water restrictions. less

California Governor Jerry Brown accompanies Frank Gehrke, chief of snow surveys for the California Department of Water Resources, as he conducts a manual snow survey April 1, 2015 in Phillips, California. The ... more

Photo: Max Whittaker, Getty Images

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Houseboats are dwarfed by the steep banks of Lake Don Pedro on March 24, 2015 in La Grange, California. More than 3,000 residents in the Sierra Nevada foothill community of Lake Don Pedro who rely on water from Lake McCLure could run out of water in the near future if the severe drought continues. Lake McClure is currently at 7 percent of its normal capacity and residents are under mandatory 50 percent water use restrictions. less

Houseboats are dwarfed by the steep banks of Lake Don Pedro on March 24, 2015 in La Grange, California. More than 3,000 residents in the Sierra Nevada foothill community of Lake Don Pedro who rely on water ... more

Photo: Justin Sullivan, Getty Images

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Weeds grow in dry cracked earth that used to be the bottom of Lake McClure on March 24, 2015 in La Grange, California. More than 3,000 residents in the Sierra Nevada foothill community of Lake Don Pedro who rely on water from Lake McCLure could run out of water in the near future if the severe drought continues. Lake McClure is currently at 7 percent of its normal capacity and residents are under mandatory 50 percent water use restrictions. less

Weeds grow in dry cracked earth that used to be the bottom of Lake McClure on March 24, 2015 in La Grange, California. More than 3,000 residents in the Sierra Nevada foothill community of Lake Don Pedro who ... more

Photo: Justin Sullivan, Getty Images

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Houseboats are dwarfed by the steep banks of Lake Don Pedro on March 24, 2015 in La Grange, California. More than 3,000 residents in the Sierra Nevada foothill community of Lake Don Pedro who rely on water from Lake McCLure could run out of water in the near future if the severe drought continues. Lake McClure is currently at 7 percent of its normal capacity and residents are under mandatory 50 percent water use restrictions. less

Houseboats are dwarfed by the steep banks of Lake Don Pedro on March 24, 2015 in La Grange, California. More than 3,000 residents in the Sierra Nevada foothill community of Lake Don Pedro who rely on water ... more

Photo: Justin Sullivan, Getty Images

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Without a series of Pacific storms reaching this famous high-elevation lake resort, water levels are reaching record lows as viewed on April 12, 2015, in South Lake Tahoe, California. As the drought enters its fourth year, Governor Jerry "Edmund" Brown has declared a "State of Emergency" and enacted mandatory water restrictions for all of California. less

Without a series of Pacific storms reaching this famous high-elevation lake resort, water levels are reaching record lows as viewed on April 12, 2015, in South Lake Tahoe, California. As the drought enters its ... more

Photo: George Rose, Getty Images

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A concrete block that was used to hold a boat dock sits in dry cracked earth that used to be the bottom of Lake McClure on March 24, 2015 in La Grange, California. More than 3,000 residents in the Sierra Nevada foothill community of Lake Don Pedro who rely on water from Lake McCLure could run out of water in the near future if the severe drought continues. Lake McClure is currently at 7 percent of its normal capacity and residents are under mandatory 50 percent water use restrictions. less

A concrete block that was used to hold a boat dock sits in dry cracked earth that used to be the bottom of Lake McClure on March 24, 2015 in La Grange, California. More than 3,000 residents in the Sierra ... more

Photo: Justin Sullivan, Getty Images

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A fisherman fishes the low waters of Lake Success as rain totals remain insufficient to break the worsening drought on February 11, 2015 near East Porterville, California. Many local residents, whose water wells have run dry, fill their tanks with free non-potable water for flushing toilets, bathing and laundering and use bottled water for drinking and washing dishes. Many of the dry wells of 926 homes in Tulare County dried up last summer when some 17 California communities ran out of water. less

A fisherman fishes the low waters of Lake Success as rain totals remain insufficient to break the worsening drought on February 11, 2015 near East Porterville, California. Many local residents, whose water ... more

Photo: David McNew, Getty Images

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Foliage and flowers the extremely low waters of Lake Success in the wake of recent storms but rain totals remain insufficient to break the worsening drought on February 11, 2015 near East Porterville, California. Many local residents, whose water wells have run dry, fill their tanks with free non-potable water for flushing toilets, bathing and laundering and use bottled water for drinking and washing dishes. Many of the dry wells of 926 homes in Tulare County dried up last summer when some 17 California communities ran out of water. less

Foliage and flowers the extremely low waters of Lake Success in the wake of recent storms but rain totals remain insufficient to break the worsening drought on February 11, 2015 near East Porterville, ... more

Photo: David McNew, Getty Images

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Skiers ride a chairlift over dry ground at Squaw Valley Ski Resort, March 21, 2015 in Olympic Valley, California. Many Tahoe-area ski resorts have closed due to low snowfall as California's historic drought continues. less

Skiers ride a chairlift over dry ground at Squaw Valley Ski Resort, March 21, 2015 in Olympic Valley, California. Many Tahoe-area ski resorts have closed due to low snowfall as California's historic drought ... more

Photo: Max Whittaker, Getty Images

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A skier makes their way past dry ground at Squaw Valley Ski Resort, March 21, 2015 in Olympic Valley, California. Many Tahoe-area ski resorts have closed due to low snowfall as California's historic drought continues. less

A skier makes their way past dry ground at Squaw Valley Ski Resort, March 21, 2015 in Olympic Valley, California. Many Tahoe-area ski resorts have closed due to low snowfall as California's historic drought ... more

Photo: Max Whittaker, Getty Images

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Houseboats sit on blocks in a parking lot at Lake McClure on March 24, 2015 in La Grange, California. More than 3,000 residents in the Sierra Nevada foothill community of Lake Don Pedro who rely on water from Lake McCLure could run out of water in the near future if the severe drought continues. Lake McClure is currently at 7 percent of its normal capacity and residents are under mandatory 50 percent water use restrictions. less

Houseboats sit on blocks in a parking lot at Lake McClure on March 24, 2015 in La Grange, California. More than 3,000 residents in the Sierra Nevada foothill community of Lake Don Pedro who rely on water from ... more

Photo: Justin Sullivan, Getty Images

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Water depth markers stand on a section of Lake Don Pedro that used to be under water on March 24, 2015 in La Grange, California. More than 3,000 residents in the Sierra Nevada foothill community of Lake Don Pedro who rely on water from Lake McCLure could run out of water in the near future if the severe drought continues. Lake McClure is currently at 7 percent of its normal capacity and residents are under mandatory 50 percent water use restrictions. less

Water depth markers stand on a section of Lake Don Pedro that used to be under water on March 24, 2015 in La Grange, California. More than 3,000 residents in the Sierra Nevada foothill community of Lake Don ... more

Photo: Justin Sullivan, Getty Images

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East Bay Municipal Utility District (EBMUD) water conservation technician Rachel Garza (R) inspects a water meter with home owners Michael Shain (L) and Sheila Shain (C) during a water conservation audit of a home on April 7, 2015 in Walnut Creek, California. As California enters its fourth year of severe drought, EBMUD and water districts throughout the state are assisting customers with finding ways to reduce water use at their homes. California residents are facing a mandatory 25 percent reduction in water use. less

East Bay Municipal Utility District (EBMUD) water conservation technician Rachel Garza (R) inspects a water meter with home owners Michael Shain (L) and Sheila Shain (C) during a water conservation audit of a ... more

Photo: Justin Sullivan, Getty Images

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Water drips from a faucet at the Dublin San Ramon Services District (DSRSD) residential recycled water fill station on April 8, 2015 in Pleasanton, California. As California enters its fourth year of severe drought, the DSRSD is allowing residents to pick up free recycled water to be used to water trees, gardens, and lawns. Residents can California residents are facing a mandatory 25 percent reduction in water use. less

Water drips from a faucet at the Dublin San Ramon Services District (DSRSD) residential recycled water fill station on April 8, 2015 in Pleasanton, California. As California enters its fourth year of severe ... more

Photo: Justin Sullivan, Getty Images

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Gov. Jerry Brown has ordered the first mandatory, statewide water cutbacks by cities and towns as the state's nearly 40 million people head into a fourth summer of severe drought.

Gov. Jerry Brown has ordered the first mandatory, statewide water cutbacks by cities and towns as the state's nearly 40 million people head into a fourth summer of severe drought.

Photo: Rich Pedroncelli / Associated Press

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Frank Gehrke, chief of the California Cooperative Snow Surveys Program for the Department of Water Resources, and Gov. Jerry Brown walk across a dry meadow that is usually covered in several inches of snow as conducts the snow survey, near Echo Summit, Calif., Wednesday, April 1, 2015. Gehrke said this was the first time since he has been conducting the survey that he found no snow at this location at this time of the year. less

Frank Gehrke, chief of the California Cooperative Snow Surveys Program for the Department of Water Resources, and Gov. Jerry Brown walk across a dry meadow that is usually covered in several inches of snow as ... more

Photo: Rich Pedroncelli, Associated Press

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A snowboarder threads his way through patches of dirt at Squaw Valley Ski Resort in Olympic Valley. Many Tahoe-area ski resorts have closed due to low snowfall as California's historic drought continues.

A snowboarder threads his way through patches of dirt at Squaw Valley Ski Resort in Olympic Valley. Many Tahoe-area ski resorts have closed due to low snowfall as California's historic drought continues.

Photo: Max Whittaker

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Ski lift chairs sit idle at shuttered Soda Springs on Wednesday, March 18, 2015, in Soda Springs, Calif. Warm Winter weather has sped up the closure of several Tahoe area ski resorts - including Soda Springs - following a promising start to the season. The drought is also forcing resort operators to find new attractions to lure tourists. less

Ski lift chairs sit idle at shuttered Soda Springs on Wednesday, March 18, 2015, in Soda Springs, Calif. Warm Winter weather has sped up the closure of several Tahoe area ski resorts - including Soda Springs - ... more

Photo: Randy Pench, Associated Press

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John Silva crowds Chinook salmon smolts towards the pick-up tube while loading them onto a large truck for transport down river to Rio Vista as part of the second year of a special contingency plan to keep the salmon alive from around the Central Valley through the drought March 26, 2015 at the Coleman National Fish Hatchery in Anderson, Calif. less

John Silva crowds Chinook salmon smolts towards the pick-up tube while loading them onto a large truck for transport down river to Rio Vista as part of the second year of a special contingency plan to keep the ... more

Photo: Leah Millis, The Chronicle

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A section of the Barrett Bridge that was demolished after the Yosemite Valley Railraod went out of service in 1945 is visible as Lake McClure water levels decline on March 24, 2015 in La Grange, California. More than 3,000 residents in the Sierra Nevada foothill community of Lake Don Pedro who rely on water from Lake McCLure could run out of water in the near future if the severe drought continues. less

A section of the Barrett Bridge that was demolished after the Yosemite Valley Railraod went out of service in 1945 is visible as Lake McClure water levels decline on March 24, 2015 in La Grange, California. ... more

Photo: Justin Sullivan, Getty Images

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California Parks Superintendent Ryen Goering walks up the slope of Mount Diablo towards a stand of dying pines Monday March 23, 2015. A large number of Coulter Pines are dying and stressed on the eastern slopes of Mount Diablo in Clayon, Calif. because of the drought and bark beetles. less

California Parks Superintendent Ryen Goering walks up the slope of Mount Diablo towards a stand of dying pines Monday March 23, 2015. A large number of Coulter Pines are dying and stressed on the eastern ... more

Photo: Brant Ward / The Chronicle

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Groundskeeper Sanjay Ram, right,of the Department of General Services, waters plants lining the sidewalk around the state Capitol Tuesday, July 8, 2014, in Sacramento, Calif. State water regulators are considering fines up to $500 for excessive water use for things like irrigating lawns and car washing due to the state's severe drought. State officials say conservation efforts so far aren't producing enough results. less

Groundskeeper Sanjay Ram, right,of the Department of General Services, waters plants lining the sidewalk around the state Capitol Tuesday, July 8, 2014, in Sacramento, Calif. State water regulators are ... more

Photo: Rich Pedroncelli, Associated Press

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A firefighter pulls a hose in position while battling the Cocos fire on May 15, 2014 in San Marcos, California. Fire agencies throughout the state are scrambling to prepare for what is expected to be a dangerous year of wildfires in this third year of extreme drought in California. less

A firefighter pulls a hose in position while battling the Cocos fire on May 15, 2014 in San Marcos, California. Fire agencies throughout the state are scrambling to prepare for what is expected to be a ... more

Photo: David McNew, Getty Images

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Utility systems operator Joseph Overman checks on a leaking irrigation system at the home of Jackie Shurtleff, in Pleasanton, CA, Friday May 16, 2014. The city of Pleasanton has made it mandatory for it's residents to comply with a 25 percent reduction in water usage to help combat persisting drought conditions. less

Utility systems operator Joseph Overman checks on a leaking irrigation system at the home of Jackie Shurtleff, in Pleasanton, CA, Friday May 16, 2014. The city of Pleasanton has made it mandatory for it's ... more

Photo: Michael Short, The Chronicle

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A woman works among drought-tolerant plants in her front yard Wednesday, July 9, 2014, in San Diego. Wasting water outdoors amid the state's drought will begin hitting Californians in the wallet under new restrictions being proposed by state regulators, with fines of up to $500 a day for overwatering front lawns or washing a car without a nozzle on the hose. less

A woman works among drought-tolerant plants in her front yard Wednesday, July 9, 2014, in San Diego. Wasting water outdoors amid the state's drought will begin hitting Californians in the wallet under new ... more

Photo: Gregory Bull, Associated Press

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Young Steelhead Trout at dumped from a California Department of Fish and Wildlife tanker trunk into the American River on June 18, 2014 in Rancho Cordova, California. California Department of Fish and Wildlife officials are evacuating young Steelhead Trout out of the Nimbus and American River hatcheries and into the American River due to a decline in the hatcheries' water supply from Lake Natomas. The warming weather has increased the temperature of the water and officials are concerned that the rising temperature could reach a level that is intolerable for young growing fish. Both hatcheries will be empty until October. less

Young Steelhead Trout at dumped from a California Department of Fish and Wildlife tanker trunk into the American River on June 18, 2014 in Rancho Cordova, California. California Department of Fish and Wildlife ... more

Photo: Justin Sullivan, Getty Images

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In this Feb. 4, 2014 file photo, a warning buoy sits on the dry, cracked bed of Lake Mendocino near Ukiah, Calif. The Legislature will revisit overhauling an $11.1 billion water bond measure that is scheduled to go before voters in November, when they return from a month long summer recess. Facing one of he most severe droughts in the state's history, lawmakers are negotiating a deal that funds projects that increases water supply and availability. less

In this Feb. 4, 2014 file photo, a warning buoy sits on the dry, cracked bed of Lake Mendocino near Ukiah, Calif. The Legislature will revisit overhauling an $11.1 billion water bond measure that is scheduled ... more

Photo: Rich Pedroncelli, Associated Press

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Without a series of Pacific storms reaching this famous high-elevation lake resort, water levels are reaching record lows as viewed on April 12, 2015, in South Lake Tahoe, California. As the drought enters its fourth year, Governor Jerry "Edmund" Brown has declared a "State of Emergency" and enacted mandatory water restrictions for all of California. less

Without a series of Pacific storms reaching this famous high-elevation lake resort, water levels are reaching record lows as viewed on April 12, 2015, in South Lake Tahoe, California. As the drought enters its ... more

Photo: George Rose, Getty Images

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Without a series of Pacific storms reaching this famous high-elevation lake resort, water levels are reaching record lows as viewed on April 12, 2015, in South Lake Tahoe, California. As the drought enters its fourth year, Governor Jerry "Edmund" Brown has declared a "State of Emergency" and enacted mandatory water restrictions for all of California. less

Without a series of Pacific storms reaching this famous high-elevation lake resort, water levels are reaching record lows as viewed on April 12, 2015, in South Lake Tahoe, California. As the drought enters its ... more

Photo: George Rose, Getty Images

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Without a series of Pacific storms reaching this famous high-elevation lake resort, water levels are reaching record lows as viewed on April 12, 2015, in South Lake Tahoe, California. As the drought enters its fourth year, Governor Jerry "Edmund" Brown has declared a "State of Emergency" and enacted mandatory water restrictions for all of California. less

Without a series of Pacific storms reaching this famous high-elevation lake resort, water levels are reaching record lows as viewed on April 12, 2015, in South Lake Tahoe, California. As the drought enters its ... more

Photo: George Rose, Getty Images

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Without a series of Pacific storms reaching this famous high-elevation lake resort, water levels are reaching record lows as viewed on April 12, 2015, in South Lake Tahoe, California. As the drought enters its fourth year, Governor Jerry "Edmund" Brown has declared a "State of Emergency" and enacted mandatory water restrictions for all of California. less

Without a series of Pacific storms reaching this famous high-elevation lake resort, water levels are reaching record lows as viewed on April 12, 2015, in South Lake Tahoe, California. As the drought enters its ... more

Photo: George Rose, Getty Images

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A smattering of snow can be found along California Highway 88 near Carson Pass on April 12, 2015, near South Lake Tahoe, California. As the drought enters its fourth year, Governor Jerry "Edmund" Brown has declared a "State of Emergency" and enacted mandatory water restrictions for all of California. less

A smattering of snow can be found along California Highway 88 near Carson Pass on April 12, 2015, near South Lake Tahoe, California. As the drought enters its fourth year, Governor Jerry "Edmund" Brown has ... more

Photo: George Rose, Getty Images

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Without a series of Pacific storms reaching this famous high-elevation lake resort, water levels are reaching record lows as viewed on April 12, 2015, in South Lake Tahoe, California. As the drought enters its fourth year, Governor Jerry "Edmund" Brown has declared a "State of Emergency" and enacted mandatory water restrictions for all of California. less

Without a series of Pacific storms reaching this famous high-elevation lake resort, water levels are reaching record lows as viewed on April 12, 2015, in South Lake Tahoe, California. As the drought enters its ... more

Photo: George Rose, Getty Images

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The sun rises along California Highway 88 near Carson Pass on April 12, 2015, near South Lake Tahoe, California. As the drought enters its fourth year, Governor Jerry "Edmund" Brown has declared a "State of Emergency" and enacted mandatory water restrictions for all of California. less

The sun rises along California Highway 88 near Carson Pass on April 12, 2015, near South Lake Tahoe, California. As the drought enters its fourth year, Governor Jerry "Edmund" Brown has declared a "State of ... more

Photo: George Rose, Getty Images

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The west fork of the Carson River is viewed flowing through Hope Valley on April 12, 2015, near South Lake Tahoe, California. As the drought enters its fourth year, Governor Jerry "Edmund" Brown has declared a "State of Emergency" and enacted mandatory water restrictions for all of California. less

The west fork of the Carson River is viewed flowing through Hope Valley on April 12, 2015, near South Lake Tahoe, California. As the drought enters its fourth year, Governor Jerry "Edmund" Brown has declared a ... more

Photo: George Rose, Getty Images

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A smattering of snow can be found along California Highway 88 near Carson Pass on April 12, 2015, near South Lake Tahoe, California. As the drought enters its fourth year, Governor Jerry "Edmund" Brown has declared a "State of Emergency" and enacted mandatory water restrictions for all of California. less

A smattering of snow can be found along California Highway 88 near Carson Pass on April 12, 2015, near South Lake Tahoe, California. As the drought enters its fourth year, Governor Jerry "Edmund" Brown has ... more

Photo: George Rose, Getty Images

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Red Lake, located along California Highway 88, is viewed on April 12, 2015, near South Lake Tahoe, California. As the drought enters its fourth year, Governor Jerry "Edmund" Brown has declared a "State of Emergency" and enacted mandatory water restrictions for all of California. less

Red Lake, located along California Highway 88, is viewed on April 12, 2015, near South Lake Tahoe, California. As the drought enters its fourth year, Governor Jerry "Edmund" Brown has declared a "State of ... more

Photo: George Rose, Getty Images

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A skiers threads his way through patches of dry ground at Squaw Valley Ski Resort, March 21, 2015 in Olympic Valley, California. Many Tahoe-area ski resorts have closed due to low snowfall as California's historic drought continues. less

A skiers threads his way through patches of dry ground at Squaw Valley Ski Resort, March 21, 2015 in Olympic Valley, California. Many Tahoe-area ski resorts have closed due to low snowfall as California's ... more

Photo: Max Whittaker, Getty Images

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Skiers ride a chairlift over dry ground at Squaw Valley Ski Resort, March 21, 2015 in Olympic Valley, California. Many Tahoe-area ski resorts have closed due to low snowfall as California's historic drought continues. less

Skiers ride a chairlift over dry ground at Squaw Valley Ski Resort, March 21, 2015 in Olympic Valley, California. Many Tahoe-area ski resorts have closed due to low snowfall as California's historic drought ... more

Photo: Max Whittaker, Getty Images

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Without a series of Pacific storms reaching this famous high-elevation lake resort, water levels are reaching record lows as viewed on April 12, 2015, in South Lake Tahoe, California. As the drought enters its fourth year, Governor Jerry "Edmund" Brown has declared a "State of Emergency" and enacted mandatory water restrictions for all of California. less

Without a series of Pacific storms reaching this famous high-elevation lake resort, water levels are reaching record lows as viewed on April 12, 2015, in South Lake Tahoe, California. As the drought enters its ... more

Photo: George Rose, Getty Images

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Without a series of Pacific storms reaching this famous high-elevation lake resort, water levels are reaching record lows as viewed on April 12, 2015, in South Lake Tahoe, California. As the drought enters its fourth year, Governor Jerry "Edmund" Brown has declared a "State of Emergency" and enacted mandatory water restrictions for all of California. less

Without a series of Pacific storms reaching this famous high-elevation lake resort, water levels are reaching record lows as viewed on April 12, 2015, in South Lake Tahoe, California. As the drought enters its ... more

Photo: George Rose, Getty Images

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Without a series of Pacific storms reaching this famous high-elevation lake resort, water levels are reaching record lows as viewed on April 12, 2015, in South Lake Tahoe, California. As the drought enters its fourth year, Governor Jerry "Edmund" Brown has declared a "State of Emergency" and enacted mandatory water restrictions for all of California. less

Without a series of Pacific storms reaching this famous high-elevation lake resort, water levels are reaching record lows as viewed on April 12, 2015, in South Lake Tahoe, California. As the drought enters its ... more

Photo: George Rose, Getty Images

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Rain from a recent storm floods the irrigation ditches around the trees on a farm in Tulare County, giving the farmer a little break from the drought April 7, 2015.

Rain from a recent storm floods the irrigation ditches around the trees on a farm in Tulare County, giving the farmer a little break from the drought April 7, 2015.

Photo: Mark Boster, LA Times Via Getty Images

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South of Bakersfield off Hwy 99 and Mettler Frontage Road, farmworkers adjust the sprinkler coverage during the early morning hours at Valpredo Farms April 6, 2015

South of Bakersfield off Hwy 99 and Mettler Frontage Road, farmworkers adjust the sprinkler coverage during the early morning hours at Valpredo Farms April 6, 2015

Photo: Mark Boster, LA Times Via Getty Images

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Winter weather: Godzilla El Niño favored to kick NW Blob's ass

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Cliff Mass, regional weather guru and University of Washington scientist, is betting on Godzilla and so are others.

“Just like in the movies, Godzilla will become our ally. And it makes sense that the mighty Godzilla will prevail,” he wrote in a blog post Tuesday morning (Sept. 2).

He explains:

The BLOB, as documented in a nice paper by State Climatologist Nick Bond and colleagues was the stepchild of a huge area of high pressure along and east of the West Coast of the U.S. High pressure resulted in less wind and mixing of the upper ocean layers, leading to reducing mixing of cooler sub-surface water to the surface. Thus, the ocean surface was warmer than normal. …

Here is the typical sea level pressure anomaly associated with El Niño (the difference of pressure from normal). Pressures are LOWER THAN NORMAL over the eastern Pacific (purple colors). A BLOB KILLER. Why? Because it is exactly opposite of the pattern that produced the BLOB— high pressure in the same area.

… in the hypothetical case where the persistent region of warm water in the North Pacific associated with “The Blob” stuck around through the winter, it’s plausible that this could modulate the atmospheric effects of the powerful El Niño event in the tropics. But that hypothetical situation is rather unlikely to actually occur this winter. That’s primarily because “The Blob” itself is thought to largely be a side-effect of the multi-year persistence of the Ridiculously Resilient Ridge, which suppressed the North Pacific storm track and prevented the vertical mixing of colder subsurface ocean waters toward the surface.

It’s certainly possible that there has been some degree of self-reinforcement in this situation—where the Triple R triggered The Blob in the first place, but the Triple R was later sustained by it, and so on … (but) that warmth is rapidly disappearing as El Niño strengthens rapidly. The take-home message here: a primary cause of the Triple R is no longer in place, and so it’s unlikely that we’ll see yet another winter of persistent anomalous ridging over the northeastern Pacific Ocean.

So, there you have it. Godzilla will win by a knockout.

Updated with video

But but but … What about poor, cowering Washington, who is suffering so much at the villainous hands of The Blob? Mass says …

A strong El Niño brings modestly warmer than normal temperatures, with a snowpack about 20 percent below normal. Much better than last winter. (!)

In other words, a strong El Niño is normally not great for us, but since The Blob has been such a bastard we’re going to be better off under the rule of Godzilla.

Video by Jake Ellison

Hot Puget Sound: A new view of climate change

Washington state scientists came together in Seattle on July 30 to tell the tale of a hot Puget Sound. What we learned was that temperatures in Puget Sound are the warmest recorded in the past 25 years and the conditions are increasing harmful algae blooms, increasing shellfish closures, lowering dissolved oxygen, and creating unfavorable conditions for salmon and other cold-loving marine species. Is this the stagnant future of climate change?

A powerful El Niño event in the tropical Pacific is virtually certain, and the present event has a good shot at becoming the strongest on record.

A wetter and warmer than average winter is likely for most or all of California in 2015-2016, and there may be an increased risk of flooding in many regions.

Partial and potentially substantial alleviation of drought severity in California is likely, though even the wettest winter on record would be insufficient to erase California’s multi-year water deficits.

Even though heavy snow may fall at the highest elevations, it’s not clear that conditions will be consistently cold enough for substantial snowpack accumulation at middle elevations in California.

Record-warm North Pacific brings increased risk that East/Central Pacific hurricane remnants will affect California between now and the end of October.

Managing hydrological impacts of simultaneously-occurring record El Niño and record drought in California will be challenging.