Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 290915
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0415 AM CDT SUN APR 29 2007
VALID 291200Z - 301200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR A PORTION OF THE UPPER MIDWEST...
...SYNOPSIS...
THE FLOW OVER THE NRN TIER OF STATES WILL REMAIN ZONAL AS SEVERAL
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVE NORTH OF A BROAD UPPER RIDGE. ONE OF THESE
SYSTEMS WILL AID IN INCREASING LOW LEVEL WINDS ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST. ALONG WITH LOW RH READINGS...WILL LEAD TO A CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER THREAT OVER THIS REGION. THE WEAKENING OF THE UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE ERN SEABOARD WILL LEAD TO WEAKER SFC WINDS...LIMITING THE
POTENTIAL FOR A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT IN THE SERN STATES.
MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LOW OVER NRN MX WILL MOVE INTO TX THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SCT PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM OVER
PORTIONS OF THE SW AND SRN PLAINS.
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - PORTIONS OF ERN/NRN MN....NRN
WI/CENTRAL WI AND THE U.P OF MI...
PRIMARY CONDITIONS: SUSTAINED W-NWLY WINDS FROM 15-25 MPH WITH
HIGHER GUSTS...MIN RH READINGS FROM 25-30 PERCENT
AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SWD ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST/WRN GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THE PERIOD. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...WLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO BETWEEN 15-25 MPH BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL DEWPTS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AS ELEVATED MOISTURE MIXES
TOWARDS THE SFC...INCREASING MIXING DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL
SUPPORT A DOWNWARD TREND IN DEWPTS. WITH DEWPTS EXPECTED TO RANGE
FROM 40-45 F SOUTH OF THE FRONT...WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE 80-85 F
RANGE WILL SUPPORT MIN RH READINGS AROUND 25 PERCENT...LEADING TO A
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT AS WELL...AS TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE
70-75 F RANGE...AND DEWPTS FALL INTO THE 30S. WINDS WILL BE NWLY AND
REMAIN MODERATE /15-25 MPH/. WEAKENING WINDS AND RISING RH READINGS
WILL END THE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT BY 01Z.
...SE...
WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVING EAST OF THE AREA AND WEAKENING
WITH TIME...AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TOWARDS THE REGION...SFC
WINDS WILL BE WEAKER THAN YESTERDAY. EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS AOB 10
MPH OVER MOST OF THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. THUS DESPITE MIN RH
READINGS FROM 20-30 PERCENT...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
NOT EXPECTED.
...NRN GREAT BASIN...
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PAC NW TODAY AND THE
NRN ROCKIES TONIGHT. IN ADVANCE OF AN ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT...INCREASING MID LEVEL WINDS...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND A
DEEPENING AREA OF SFC LOW PRESSURE OVER WRN MT WILL SUPPORT
SUSTAINED SWLY WINDS FROM 15-20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WARM
TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S WILL SUPPORT MIN RH READINGS FROM 8-15
PERCENT.
..CROSBIE.. 04/29/2007
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 290916
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0416 AM CDT SUN APR 29 2007
VALID 301200Z - 011200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...SYNOPSIS...
ZONAL FLOW WILL DOMINATE THE NRN TIER OF THE CONUS NORTH OF A BROAD
RIDGE. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS PATTERN WILL BE AN UPPER LOW THAT WILL
SLOWLY PROGRESS ACROSS TX...PRODUCING SCT CONVECTION. LOW RH
READINGS WILL AGAIN BE PREVALENT ACROSS THE SERN STATES AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE RESIDES IN THAT AREA. LACK OF MODERATE WINDS WILL PRECLUDE
ANY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT. ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH...INCREASING WLY FLOW OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES COMBINED
WITH WARM TEMPERATURES/LOW RH READINGS WILL SUPPORT NEAR CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
...SERN STATES...
ANOTHER DAY OF WARM TEMPERATURES /85-90 F/ WILL OCCUR OVER THE
REGION TOMORROW. GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS /AOB 10 MPH/ WILL PRECLUDE
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS DESPITE THE DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE
/MIN RH READINGS FROM 20-25 PERCENT/.
...MID-ATLANTIC...
IN THE WAKE OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH...DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL INCREASE
OVER THE AREA ON MONDAY...WITH SUSTAINED WLY WINDS FROM 15-25 MPH.
MILD TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S/LOWER 80S AND LOW DEWPTS IN THE 40S
WILL SUPPORT MIN RH READINGS AROUND 30 PERCENT. IF SLIGHTLY LOWER
DEWPTS/MIN RH READINGS ARE INDICATED...AREA MAY NEED TO BE
CONSIDERED FOR AN UPGRADE IN A LATER OUTLOOK.
...NRN HIGH PLAINS...
IN THE WAKE OF ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT...NWLY WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO BETWEEN 20-25 MPH. DESPITE LOW DEWPTS IN THE
30S...COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AND LOWER 70S SHOULD KEEP MIN
RH READINGS ABOVE 25 PERCENT
..CROSBIE.. 04/29/2007
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...