Election Tip Sheet: New South Wales

27 June 2016

Election Tip Sheet: New South Wales

In the countdown to Election 2016, The Wolf will dish out his best election bets with all 150 seats available at William Hill.

NEW SOUTH WALESNew South Wales has long been the determining state for forming government in Australia and despite seeing its seat count drop from 48 to 47 at this election, will again be the key state that determines which party will form government.

The ALP has never won government without winning a majority of seats in NSW while the state laid the platform for the strong Coalition reign under John Howard that lasted over a decade.

At the 2013 election the Coalition won 30 seats while Labor won 18 but a major redistribution saw the seat of Charlton abolished and Liberal held seats Dobell, Paterson and Barton becoming notional ALP seats.

There are plenty of untouchable seats on both sides of the divide.

For the Coalition, there are 16 seats that are locked away with no danger at all including Northern Sydney seats of Berowra, Bradfield, Bennelong, Mackellar, Mitchell, North Sydney and Warringah, the rural seats of Calare, Lyne, Farrer, Hume, Parks and Riverina, the Shire seats of Cook and Hughes and the seat of the Prime Minister, Wentworth.

The Liberals should also hold off the challenge of independents Rob Oakeshott to retain Cowper ($1.34) and Tony Windsor to preserve New England ($1.30) while they are extremely confident about holding Gilmore ($1.34), Macquarie ($1.30), Reid ($1.18) and Banks ($1.25)

Labor has 14 seats that are in no danger. Despite speculation the Greens could press high-profile inner-city Labor incumbents Anthony Albanese and Tanya Plibersek in Grayndler and Sydney respectively, Labor will hold those seats with plenty of east. Other Labor seats that aren’t in any danger include the Sydney seats of Fowler, Chifley, Blaxland, Werriwa, Watson, McMahon and Kingsford-Smith, the Hunter seats of Newcastle, Hunter and Shortland, the Wollongong seats of Whitlam and Cunningham.

The ALP also look home in Parramatta ($1.16), Greenway ($1.25) and Richmond ($1.22) as well as the notional pickups of Barton ($1.06) and Paterson ($1.25).

The six key battleground seats are the Central Coast seats of Dobell and Robertson, the western Sydney seats of Lindsay and Macarthur, the northern NSW seat of Page and the bellwether southern NSW seat of Eden-Monaro.

The parties are expected to split the Central Coast seats with the ALP at $1.34 in Dobell and the Coalition at $1.34 in Robertson. Both seats are traditionally very close and the outsider is value in each.

The Coalition have seemingly saved Lindsay with MP Fiona Scott into $1.25 on the back of four electorate polls, three of which have her with a commanding 54-46 lead.

Macarthur is forecast as an ALP pickup by both the market ($1.60) and polling that have Labor holding a 51-49 lead.

Page looks to be another ALP gain with former MP Janelle Saffin into $1.40 to reclaim the seat after a term out of office. She has a clear 52-48 lead.

Eden-Monaro is always the most interesting seat and has gone with government since 1972 but punters suggest that streak is going to break with Labor $1.45.

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