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CUBA-50 YEARS LATER

January 10, 2015

In the middle 80’s, closed-end funds were not particularly popular. Investment turnover was low and the diversification from one country to another did not particularly accelerate it.

There were four different countries of interest – Germany, Israel, Turkey and Russia. In 1984, Thomas J. Herzfeld Advisors introduced a Caribbean closed-end fund. The Herzfeld Cuban Division of Thomas Herzfeld Advisors is an investment advisory in the Caribbean area. The name was Herzfeld Caribbean Basin Fund,symbol CUBA. The fund has historically shown lower correlation to the growth and equity in fixed income markets. It remained the speculative closed end fund for the last 25 years tied to the fortunes of Caribbean Basin and later Venezuela.

In 1994, the company launched the first publicly listed Cuban fund with minimum oscillation not more than a point a year. The fund originally was launched at $6 and in early December, 2004, the price was less than $9.

It has been assumed that the boutique fund has a many faceted future value. Number one, Miami had a group policy may benefit the fund itself. Number two, industrial activity in Miami may have influence on the fund. Point number three, the large publicity for Miami can have influence on many of the stocks listed on the closed-end fund. Number four, current diplomatic activities have created some upswing in the fund. The policy of the Obama Administration has been favorable to some rapprochement between Cuba and the United States.

Mathematically speaking the fund has a big upswing potential. First and foremost, Cuba Caribbean fund has very few shares outstanding, only 4 million and at $9 the market value is $36 million. Number two, the very day President Obama declared a diplomatic move toward Cuba, the fund has been immediately reactive. The stock went from $9 to $11.67 up $2.47 or 26.85%.

The mathematical description of the fund and its upswing potential is shown below.

The future is basically the value of Cuba. Number one, Cuba is surrounded by other islands with great potential. If the price of the Cuban fund goes up 3 points, it would be an increase of $12 million. Taking into a current market cap of $45 million, it is a very meaningful change. It is likely that soon the Cuban fund for the first time could raise money on the market and become owner of Cuban assets and various island assets in addition to assets in Miami. This is a giant step forward. More economic development between Cuba and the United States obviously helps the asset values of CUBA , but at the same time influences the policies inside Cuba as more economic activities usually create better relationship with the United States. Unfortunately , Communism and left-wing socialism are never a positive for equities. However, I would like to point out that the leverage factor in Cuba is enormous. After all, if you consider that with new capital, the Cuban –Caribbean fund could acquire $1 billion extra assets, and the price of the stock would really have a spectacular rise.

Another factor which we have to take into consideration is that of foreign investment. Central America, Cuba and various islands of the Caribbean Basin as well as Miami make up the absolute creative place for capitalism.

Let me repeat the facts, the current market value of CUBA

is $45 billion. If the fund reaches a $100 billion in assets, the value of CUBA would double minus the dilution but still double the value of the company. Consider the old Havana, 15 hotels and 10 casinos. In 1978 Atlantic City skyrocketed in value. Macau in 2015 is worth $15B. If Havana resurrects its casinos it could be valued at $52 B. Add to that 10 new or refurbished hotels and it would be easy to reach $200 B. And here I am not counting Rio, Brazil in this mix.

The last, but perhaps by far the most important factor, is Venezuela. Venezuela is in trouble but it’s still one of the largest oil-producing countries. Venezuela in the past approached the Castro brothers for economic activities. Now the picture is the other way around. The Venezuelan stocks are selling for nothing. Venezuela is in need of expansion and the economic ties. Currently political contact between Venezuela and Cuba has already been established. Venezuela produces 2.9 billion barrels of oil a day. If price of oil goes up that is significant.

We should also keep in mind that the American business is ready to modernize Venezuela. If Cuba follows then the CUBA fund could grow 10 to 20 times. It would be a historical change. It is a change which could wipe off the tragedy created by the oppressive behavior of Cuba and Venezuela of the past and create a fund which would grow 25-35 times earnings and also create a much better life for people in Cuba.

CHAPTER ONE

CUBA HAS A BACKGROUND

The current format of Cuba which became a nation when Fidel Castro became leader in 1959 is a unique country because of its geographic position and its resources like sugar and tobacco. Cuba is a small island but 328 miles south of Miami. It is in the middle of Central America and represents an aggressive population.

In 1959 when Fidel Castro visited President Eisenhower who passed the visit onto Vice President Nixon, Cuba was declared a Communist nation. President Khrushchev got involved with Cuba and handed them over $4 to $6 billion annually. The aid actually ended when Secretary of State, Mr. Baker, under President Bush demanded the change of aid. The Soviet Union asked for a $5 to $10 billion aid from the United States to which Mr. Baker replied that no such aid could be passed by Congress unless the Cuban aid ended.

Cuba has 10 million people, over 6 million working population of which 7.5 million live in urban areas. Actually the education rate is high, about 30%. The agriculture on market is sugar, tobacco, coffee and rice. Industrial products are petroleum, nickel, cobalt and pharmaceuticals.

Industrial production growth rate is 2.6% while the labor force is 5,230,000 people.

Two items should be mentioned here. Number one, the sugar production at some stage represented 70% of the United States consumption. Number two, the military service age is between 17 to 23 and the manpower available for military service is 3 million. At various times in the last 15 years, Cuban troops were in Uganda, Somalia, Angola and tried to dominated half of Africa with their uninvited army.

Cuban forces visited various countries of Central America and in the last three years negotiations were conducted between Cuba and the oil-rich Venezuela.

Forgetting the past, the current structure of Cuba still creates a certain amount of fear in Central and South America, and it is an issue which has to be dealt with.

CHAPTER TWO

THE 50 YEARS OF MILITARY CONFRONTATION

It appears ridiculous that for 50 years Cuba frightened the American nations and in fact once instigated a world crisis called the 1962 Missile Crisis.

The confrontation started in the late 1950’s. President Eisenhower was not particularly happy in 1958 with Cuban economic policies and started a ban on Cuba’s exports to the United States. first sugar and then all other materials.

In 1959, Fidel Castro asked for an appointment with the American President who passed it onto Vice President Nixon. Nixon sized up Castro as a Communist and declared him as such. Castro visited Yankee Stadium, he gave a speech at Harvard and made himself an important visitor in the United States.

Subsequently, Fidel Castro became friendly with the Soviets on American soil at the United Nations and Chairman Khrushchev started to deliver important aid to Castro. In the interim, plans were made in America to invade Cuba which in April of ’61 led to the Bay of Pigs invasion in favor of Cuba. In 1962, Mr. Khrushchev delivered missiles to Cuba which led to direct confrontation between the United States and the Soviet Union. Plans were made to bomb the missiles, invade Cuba and in any case President Kennedy said that the missiles, which were threatening United States, had to be taken out of Cuba.

In a famous speech, President Kennedy stated that any attempt to invade or attack a country in the American territory from Cuba would be construed an attack on the United States, an attack from Cuba and the Soviet Union and will bring about a retaliating action against the Soviet Union. This was the height of the Cold War and this was the danger that the tiny country without any military responsibilities could shake up the whole world and, of course, the United States of America. This was what we call the Cuba Missile Crisis and this is where this story begins.

The Cuban Missile Crisis actually ended when President Kennedy in his capacity as President of the United States promised that America will never invade Cuba. No other confrontation has been known in American history and since then no other threat emerged against United States of America in the 20th century.

This event represents a turning point in our history and it is very logical that even now 50 years later the Cuban regime and the Cuban people are considered a danger to our hemisphere. No President of the United States since Kennedy has made any friendly approach towards Cuba. This issue is an open item. In fact, any major change which may happen in American policy towards Cuba has to start with the 1962 Missile Crisis. We have to ask the question, is this period over, is the danger over, and is any economic benefit able to erase memories of the Cuban Missile Crisis?

After all in January 2015 most Americans live in peace and no American would like to wake up as the American leaders had to wake up in the so-called 13 days of 1962 to the danger of annihilation of life in our hemisphere.

The Cuban danger was a danger in ’62 the spirit of 1962 is not yet dead . United States

policy has to take into consideration and deal with the memories of the fear which was inflicted on America in 1962. In comparing the Cuban Missile Crisis to Fidel Castro, the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor was a minor issue. However, to bring back Pearl Harbor, we should remember that the day after President Roosevelt said this attack will be retaliated no matter how much it costs, no matter how long it takes.

CHAPTER THREE

THE PROSPECT AND THE RIVAL

When President Obama made the first step to recognize Cuba, his government and the American people have to face the confrontations and complexities that are waiting. Point number one, potential Republican candidate for the White House, Marco Rubio, expressed that the Cuban people for decades suffered from the Castro communist regime. Point number two, another Republican candidate, Jeb Bush, referred to the fact that the attitude of the current Cuban leaders towards United States is different from that which prevailed in 1962. Will the Castros ever allow free elections and is it necessary to have a free elections in order to integrate them into the life of American business. However, one must remember we do business with China and they do not have free elections. What does free election mean? Does free election also speak for free economic life in Cuba in order to be part of the Americas? Point number three, the free election would mean that other Cuban citizens can take part in government and carry that country forward from the Castro brothers’ repression. Point number four, the Cuba.as an entity has to integrate into the Caribbean. Number five, the various countries – Venezuela, Argentina – they have independent leaders and have to live in peace with the future government of Cuba. Otherwise, the previous confrontations and partial agreements and underhanded conspiracies would continue and cannot be tolerated by the United States. Number six, we have to consider that would economic benefits in any way, shape or form would be equal to various Cuban embargoes, deals between various Central and South American countries and the elimination of what we call repression of the people like Senator Rubio and Governor Bush referred to when they spoke about Cuba. American people would then clearly be happy to do business with Cuba and create a prosperous neighbor

CHAPTER FOUR

THE ECONOMIC POTENTIAL OF CUBA

The basic business of Cuba consists of two parts – agriculture and hotels and entertainment. The agriculture segment is 80% sugar. Before 1957-1958, 80-90% of the sugar production went to the United States. This number declined to almost nothing when President Eisenhower terminated the sugar quota.

Subsequently, the sugar production was restored by the Soviet Union in order to replace American business.

The loss of sugar was a very big hit to Cuba and only with Eastern European purchases could they subsidize basic cultural business of the country.

Subsequent to the decline of relationship between Cuba and the United States, the famous hotel casino business again came to a standstill and it has brought down the construction segment of the island.

Any for power of imagination, of course, can put down that if there is normal relationship between the Western World and the United States and Cuba, the hotels can be reestablished quite easily and, of course, the casinos can be again used for tourism and creation of capital for the country.

This is a very big number.

If we assume that 10 casinos are rebuilt in Cuba and about five or six casinos rebuilt which physically can be done, we have a total revenue base of at least half a billion or $1 billion.

Considering the island’s total revenue in 2014 excluding the hotel and casino business, we can easily multiply the total revenue base and with further development potential revenue of $1 billion with revenue base 10 casinos could easily bring in several billion dollars income. This income, of course, can rebuild the roads, the buildings and finance smaller businesses in Cuba.

Any economic imagination is not dependent on political developments.

Cuban development of the entertainment business would bring in a great development in the whole Caribbean and a working relationship with Miami can create a revenue base close to $5 billion.

The Caribbean is explosive just the same way the rebuilding of Cuban entertainment is. It would bring about great development in transportation, in particular, shipping and airplanes.

For instance, the Virgin Islands airplane business which is controlled by Sir Richard Branson already has a revenue of $1.5 billion. With Cuban development, the number can go to $3 billion and, of course, add substantially to the business of the Virgin Islands which would be accelerated by the development of VA.

The development of the combination of the Caribbean, Cuba, Miami and international transportation is a class of its own. It’s a class of its own because the Caribbean would compete with Central America and as a result, an economic boom of its own would develop.
All this depends on politics. Let there be no mistake about it that Cuba’s future is political and if I may so say, unnecessary political. The current governments and current restrictions are totally artificial and can be removed easily.

The government of the United States has nothing to lose by remaining passive, but everything to gain by developing first Cuba, then the Caribbean and third an international transportation business. In 2015, it would be a new era in international development vastly positive for the United States and, of course, positive for the Cuban-Caribbean area.

We can clearly say that the Cuban Missile Crisis of 1962 is not only the past but remnants of memories could then be replaced by positive, constructive and intelligent progress.

Undoubtedly, politics is going to play great deal during the next two years. There will be various senators who would create artificial hindrances. However, it would also be economical and political breakthrough where the United States would rebuild a certain part of the world which can contribute not only to democratic principles and replace bad memories of the past but would create a bright future for Cuba as well as for certain American businesses.

The economic-political developments are simple issues of signing a piece of paper. Virgin Islands and particularly the Sir Richard Bronson’s Virgin Air can add to their balance sheets in a single day. Caribbean is the center of Sir Richard Branson’s airline business which has about 60 airplanes all landing in various countries of the Caribbean.Transportation in a huge territory such as the Caribbean obviously can bring a large increase of business and Cuba would be the center of attraction.

The transportation in the Caribbean can be compared to the islands of the Philippines which has 200 million people similar to that of the Caribbean which Virgin Air is fully capable of servicing.

Basically, we are talking about something like a new continent – the continent of Central American islands and the development of such territory which can eventually be integrated into civilization by a simple political step in changing the political climate of Cuba.

At the same time, it should be mentioned that there is nothing sacred in the current political structure of Cuba. 50 years of communism has to be replaced by capitalism or some kind of market economy. America is ready to invest if Cuba steps back from its dark and unsuccessful past and steps forward into the future.

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