The June 2012 U.S. heat wave: one of the greatest in recorded history

Intense heat continues to bake a large portion of the U.S. this Tuesday, with portions of 17 states under heat advisories for dangerously high temperatures. The heat is particularly dangerous for the 1.4 million people still without power and air conditioning due to Friday's incredible derecho event, which is now being blamed for 23 deaths. The ongoing heat wave is one of the most intense and widespread in U.S. history, according to wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt. In his Sunday post, The Amazing June Heat Wave of 2012 Part 2: The Midwest and Southeast June 28-30, Mr. Burt documents that eighteen of the 298 locations (6%) that he follows closely because of their long period of record and representation of U.S. climate broke or tied their all-time heat records during the past week, and that "this is especially extraordinary since they have occurred in June rather than July or August when 95% of the previous all-time heat records have been set for this part of the country." The only year with more all-time heat records than 2012 is 1936, when 61 cities of the 298 locations (20%) set all-time heat records. The summer of 1936 was the hottest summer in U.S. history, and July 1936 was the hottest month in U.S. history.

According to wunderground analysis of the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) extremes database, during June 2012, 11% of the country's 777 weather stations with a period of record of a century or more broke or tied all-time heat records for the month of June. Only 1936 (13% of June records broken or tied) and 1988 (12.5%) had a greater number of all-time monthly June records. I expect when NCDC releases their analysis of the June 2012 weather next week, they will rank the month as one of the top five hottest Junes in U.S. history.

Figure 1. Across the entire Continental U.S., 72% of the land area was classified as being in dry or drought conditions as of June 26, 2012. Conditions are not expected to improve much over the summer: the NOAA Climate Prediction Center’s latest drought outlook shows much of the U.S. in persistent drought conditions, with very few areas improving. The rains brought by Tropical Storm Debby did help out Florida and Georgia, however. Image credit: NOAA Environmental Visualization Laboratory.

The forecast: hot and dryJuly is traditionally the hottest month of the year, and July 2012 is likely to set more all-time heat records. The latest predictions from the GFS and ECMWF models show that a ridge of high pressure and dry conditions will dominate the weather over about 80 - 90% of the country during the next two weeks, except for the Pacific Northwest and New England. This will bring wicked hot conditions to most of the nation, but no all-time heat records are likely to fall. However, around July 11, a sharp ridge of high pressure is expected to build in over the Western U.S., bringing the potential for crazy-hot conditions capable of toppling all-time heat records in many western states.

The intense heat and lack of rain, combined with soils that dried out early in the year due to lack of snowfall, have led to widespread areas of moderate to extreme drought over much of the nation's grain growing regions, from Kansas to Indiana. The USDA is reporting steadily deteriorating crop conditions for corn and soybeans, and it is likely that a multi-billion dollar drought disaster is underway in the Midwest.

The wunderground Extremes page has an interactive map that allows one to look at the records for the 298 U.S. cities that Mr. Burt tracks. Click on the "Wunderground U.S. Records" button to see them.

Quiet in the AtlanticThere are no threat areas to discuss in the Atlantic, and none of the reliable computer models are developing a tropical cyclone over the next seven days.

Have a great 4th of July holiday, everyone, and I'll be back Thursday with a new post.

The Squirrel Creek Fire spread rapidly last night, and topped the crest of Sheep Mountain as we watched last night. This is a telephoto shot from our west patio. The line of light below the fire is Harmony Wyoming. Sheep mountain is 22 air miles away from us...

A woman makes a photograph of Mike Wolfe's pick-up truck as it lies under a fallen tree in front of his house after a severe storm in Falls Church, Va., Saturday, June 30, 2012. Wolfe's daughter Samanth Wolfe created the for sale sign as a joke. (AP Photo/Cliff Owen)

Ah no! I said the MDR main development region looks very hostile due to saharan dust and increasing upper level winds due to el nino developing. Its real effects will be felt during peak season in August and September. Theres been some intense hurricanes that have formed during el nino years so one must still be alert.

Ok, which is why I first stated "if I read correctly".. Which was very late last night and I was dozing on and off.. Sorry.

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... AGUAS BUENAS MUNICIPALITY IN PUERTO RICO... BAYAMON MUNICIPALITY IN PUERTO RICO... CAGUAS MUNICIPALITY IN PUERTO RICO... THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF CAGUAS... CAYEY MUNICIPALITY IN PUERTO RICO... THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF CAYEY... CIDRA MUNICIPALITY IN PUERTO RICO... THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF CIDRA... COMERIO MUNICIPALITY IN PUERTO RICO... THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF COMERIO... GUAYNABO MUNICIPALITY IN PUERTO RICO... NARANJITO MUNICIPALITY IN PUERTO RICO... SAN LORENZO MUNICIPALITY IN PUERTO RICO...

* UNTIL NOON AST

* AT 1119 AM AST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OVER CIDRA AND AGUAS BUENAS...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 30 MPH. THIS SEVERE STORM WILL AFFECT THE NEARBY MUNICIPALITIES AS MOVES TO THE NORTHWEST. WINDS BETWEEN 50 TO 65 MPH ARE LIKELY WITH THIS STORM.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS STORM HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS. SEEK SHELTERNOW INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS!

Quoting hydrus:Good morning Adrian. It is my belief that El-Nino effects will not be to formidable by the time hurricane season is at its peak. Saharan dust will inhibit the African Waves from development.

There is some lag BUT i still think its affects will be felt during the peak.

Ah no! I said the MDR main development region looks very hostile due to saharan dust and increasing upper level winds due to el nino developing. Its real effects will be felt during peak season in August and September. Theres been some intense hurricanes that have formed during el nino years so one must still be alert.

Good morning Adrian. It is my belief that El-Nino effects will not be to formidable by the time hurricane season is at its peak. Saharan dust will inhibit the African Waves from development.

Ah no! I said the MDR main development region looks very hostile due to saharan dust and increasing upper level winds due to el nino developing. Its real effects will be felt during peak season in August and September. Theres been some intense hurricanes that have formed during el nino years so one must still be alert.

Reed:

I dont think it is a good idea for someone to post what someone else "said". Being mis-quoted is not in the best interest of the site or anyone on it.

Quoting reedzone:If I read correctly last night, Adrian posted that the Atlantic Hurricane season is pretty much done.. He didn't say it like that but reading his analysis, he pretty much predicted that the Atlantic Hurricane Season is coming to a close..

I strongly disagree..

Although I may agree that we may not have action for another few weeks. This Season is FAR for over.

My Forecast 13-15 named storms... We already had 4 so far, so 8-11 more is possible.

Ah no! I said the MDR main development region looks very hostile due to saharan dust and increasing upper level winds due to el nino developing. Its real effects will be felt during peak season in August and September. Theres been some intense hurricanes that have formed during el nino years so one must still be alert.

AT 1020 AM AST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGIST DETECTED ACLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS 15 MILES SOUTH OF YABUCOA...MOVINGNORTHWEST AT 25 MPH. THIS AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCETORRENTIAL RAIN...STRONG GUSTY WINDS BETWEEN 30 AND 50 MPH ANDDANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AS MOVES OVER THE SOUTHEAST ANDEASTERN INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO DURING THE NEXT 30 MINUTES.

HEAVY RAINS MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES ANDUNDERPASSES. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED ROADS AS THEYMAY BE WASHED OUT. WATER LEVELS OF SMALL STREAMS AND RIVERS MAY ALSORISE...THEREFORE SEEK HIGHER GROUND IF THREATENED BY FLOOD WATERS.

INTENSE LIGHTNING IS REPORTED WITH THIS STORM. IF OUTDOORS...STAYAWAY FROM ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. MOVE INDOORS IFPOSSIBLE. WHEN INDOORS...STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS AND AVOIDUSING TELEPHONES UNLESS IT IS AN EMERGENCY. TRY TO UNPLUG UNNECESSARYELECTRICAL APPLIANCES BEFORE THE THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES.

MOTORISTS AND PERSONS IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS ARE ADVISED TOMONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER MEDIA FOR FURTHER UPDATES ORPOSSIBLE WARNINGS.

Quoting reedzone:If I read correctly last night, Adrian posted that the Atlantic Hurricane season is pretty much done.. He didn't say it like that but reading his analysis, he pretty much predicted that the Atlantic Hurricane Season is coming to a close..

I strongly disagree..

Although I may agree that we may not have action for another few weeks. This Season is FAR for over.

My Forecast 13-15 named storms... We already had 4 so far, so 8-11 more is possible.

Quoting weathermanwannabe:El Nino is coming for sure but we do not know yet how strong and the timing aspect in terms of Atlantic season shutdown. In any event, if El Nino effects were to establish themselves during Cape Verde time, the percentages for US landfall fall dramatically, but it only takes one to slip through. Here are some of the analog stats for the El Nino watchers:

Bove et al. (1998) also showed a decrease (increase)in hurricane landfall probabilities in the United States during El Niño (La Niña) events. For the period of record 1900–97, the mean number of hurricanes to make landfall in the United States annually was 1.04 during El Niño years, 1.61 during neutral years, and 2.23 during La Niña years (Bove et al. 1998). For the same period, Bove et al. (1998) found the probability of two or more North Atlantic hurricanes making landfall anywhere along the U.S. coastline to be 28% during El Niño, 48% during the neutral phase, and 66% during La Niña.

If I read correctly last night, Adrian posted that the Atlantic Hurricane season is pretty much done.. He didn't say it like that but reading his analysis, he pretty much predicted that the Atlantic Hurricane Season is coming to a close..

I strongly disagree..

Although I may agree that we may not have action for another few weeks. This Season is FAR for over.

My Forecast 13-15 named storms... We already had 4 so far, so 8-11 more is possible.

A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES...MOVINGOVER THE TOP OF THE DEEP RIDGE AND MOVING SE OVER THE GREAT LAKESAND THE NEW ENGLAND REGION...DEEPENS AN UPPER TROUGH SE ALONG THEE U.S. COAST...THE ADJACENT N ATLC AND OVER THE FLA PENINSULA THURS-DAY NIGHT AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS SHOVES THE UPPER RIDGE TO THEW AND LEAVES THE FLA PENINSULA IN A COL AREA BETWEEN THE HIGH TO THEW AND THE ATLC RIDGE WHICH WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTOEARLY NEXT WEEK.

..A DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL EXTENDS SWINTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS SHOVING THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM INTHE CENTRAL U.S. WESTWARD WITH THE ATLC RIDGE BECOMING DOMINANT OVEROVER THE FLA PENINSULA. AT THE SURFACE AND LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMO-SPHERE... A RIDGE FROM THE ATLC WILL EXTENDS WESTWARD OVER THE FLAPENINSULA. THROUGH THIS PERIOD...THE POSITIONING OF THE SURFACE/UPPER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEMS KEEP S FLA IN A FAIRLY DEEP EASTERLYWIND FLOW.

In another month or so, that Bermuda ridge should be weaker and further east as El Nino comes into the equation.

Quoting stillwaiting:the aoi near hispaniola is being enhanced by ul divergence being caused by the tutt cell to its west,doubtful anything forms in the next 24-36hrs,maybe this weekend depending if it gets into the gom