I agree. MKG not only has quite a hitch in his shot, he also shoots on the way down. He is going to have difficulty getting his shot off in the NBA unless he fixes that release. But I guess we knew that his strengths are in other areas.

I don't really get how we have a 12% chance of top-3 at all, since the three rounds of lottery balls are completely independent of each other. It's been far too many years since highschool finite math... could be statistics VS probability... ughhh it's Monday morning, why am I even giving it a second thought?! lol

Yeah I see a lot of people just add up our chances to draft in the top 3 which is entirely false.

They have a 3.5% chance to draft #1 and if they fail to get the first pick...
They have a 4.0% chance to draft #2 and if they fail to get the second pick...
They have a 4.8% chance to draft #3.

If you add up our total % chance to land in the top three, you have to do the same for each team, in which case... Sorry but we have a 12.3% out of 300% to land a top 3 pick.

It's 1-chances of not getting a top 3 pick. So 1 - (0,965*0,96*0,952). This is about 12% (to get a top 3 pick).

From my memory of probability, you would only multiply the odds if the three lottery rounds were dependent on each other. However, the way the NBA does the three rounds independently, the odds are actually reset each time and therefore you wouldn't multiply them the way you have done.

From my memory of probability, you would only multiply the odds if the three lottery rounds were dependent on each other. However, the way the NBA does the three rounds independently, the odds are actually reset each time and therefore you wouldn't multiply them the way you have done.

How I did it is (I think) exactly how you calculate this. It's not much different from having to throw at least one six in three tries with dice, you take the odds of not getting a six every single round (5/6) and multiply them and subtract it from one. Because the odds are already reset after each round we don't have to account for the probability of getting the first, second ánd third pick, or any combination (which would be nice).

Interesting Mock draft from Hoopsworld.com. 3 out of 4 pick PJ3 at the are pick. The fourth one would have picked PJ3 too if he was still on the board. Which I agree with at 8 you can't let him pass you. PJ3 potential is too immense and I feel his game is tailored made for the NBA.

Was just reading a thing on draftexpress and a couple things made my ears perk up regarding two pg's who'll most likely be in the second round.

The shortest player was Long Beach State's Casper Ware at 5-9 ½ without shoes. One of the most aggressive guards seen in New Jersey, Ware drew some comparisons to prolific scoring NBA rookie Isaiah Thomas, thanks to his terrific quickness, deep shooting range and pesky full-court defense. Thomas actually measured a half inch shorter at the NBA Combine last year without shoes, which should help Ware's case significantly. Ware also measured the shortest wingspan and standing reach at the Combine, but was the fastest player tested in the lane agility drill.

Another player who seemingly helped himself quite a bit was Texas guard J'Covan Brown. Playing mostly off the ball throughout his career alongside McDonald's All-Americans Myck Kabongo, Cory Joseph and Avery Bradley, Brown showed terrific timing running the pick and roll, changing speeds extremely well and making strong decisions with the ball in his hands. He did a good job displaying both his passing and scoring ability, and measured reasonably well at 6-2 in shoes with a 6-4 ½ wingspan. With the weakness of this class at the point guard spot, he could be an attractive option for a team drafting in the second round.

I was a big fan of Isaiah Thomas and was pretty surprised he fell so deep into the second round. He's a small dude, but absolutely lightning quick and was successful in competition. This Ware fella sounds very similar.

Brown sounds a little intriguing as well.

Besides Machado, it looks like a quality developmental PG could very well be had in the second round this year.