2009

On 10 November 2009 in London the International Energy Agency (IEA) presented "WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOK 2009", which is the first post-crisis analysis of energy trends worldwide. WEO 2009 provides quantitative outlook on energy demand and supply in the medium and long term, and identifies implications for energy security, investment and the environment. The publication includes in-depth analysis of climate change issues, prospects for global natural gas markets, and energy trends in Southeast Asia. According to the IEA the scale and breadth of the energy challenge is enormous. The IEA specialists calculated that in order to limit the long-term concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere to 450 parts per million of CO2-equivalent, which would allow for limiting the rise in global temperature to 2°C, an "energy revolution" is necessary as well as investments of $10.5 trillion for the period 2010-2030. Paradoxically the recent recession has made the transforming the energy sector easier by slowdown of economic activity and curbing the growth of greenhouse-gas emissions. In view of the IEA energy efficiency offers the largest potential to CO2emissions abatement. With the assumed end of the global economic and financial crisis, the demand for natural gas is set to resume its long-term upwards trend, but the pace of demand depends on governments' climate change policy actions. The lower carbon content of gas relative to coal and oil will be a crucial factor for its expansion in the medium term. However, the Agency says that in the short term we could experience a glut of gas supply due to the unexpected boom in US unconventional gas production together with the current crisis' depressive impact on demand.