For the first time in the AKParty’s long reign, the opposition is challenging the ruling party on the basis of existing economic conditions. If the HDP manages to pass the 10 percent threshold, this will not just bring a balance of forces inside the Parliament and in Turkey’s politics. The Kurdish political movement will have taken a giant step toward its own legitimization in the political system just as the Islamists did over a longer period of time. If Erdoğan wins, this will be in no small part a result of an extremely unfair campaign. The elections will be seminal.

* Soli Özel teaches at Istanbul Kadir Has University and is a Richard Von Weizsacker Fellow at the Robert Bosch Academy.