Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets

Friday, September 13, 2019

President Trump said the Dow would be 10,000 points higher if it was not for the FED. In truth if the Dow breaks to new all time highs the next stop is 38,000 and he may be proven correct. Is there an election on?

Thursday, September 12, 2019

The charts below are telling me we crash lower on 9/12 and again on9/18-19ish.The expected 9/12 bottom should hold the SPX 2870 area. The 9/18 to 9/19 or the 20th move should go down below the 8/5 low to create an irregular bottom either on 9/19 or 9/20.

This is telling me that we likely go to new highs (double top?) around Oct 18, 2019 monthly Oct Option Expiry and then crash into early November to finish out the cycle 10 month low from Dec 24/26, 2018.

It is going to get interesting, because should an October 18th “Double Top” happens, we may see new highs by mid December, 2019 (e-wave read and 4 year cycle) and then go down harder into early 2020 around Feb/March to sync with the 4 year cycle from 2015-16. WOW!!

Benner's Cycle is telling me we see another top likely around late summer 2020 and a final crash into late 2020 with a possible double bottom in early 2021 like 2000 to 2002/03.

Thursday, September 12, 2019

Many Canadian companies have significant unfunded pension liabilities on their balance sheets. With the traditional 60/40 allocation to stocks and bonds, pension deficits may become unmanageable during the next market correction if they are not dealt with urgently. Governments can afford to ignore this looming disaster and act irresponsibly largely because they can print money; however, corporations cannot afford the risk of unfunded liabilities nor can they eliminate pension deficits as easily. We would like to take this opportunity to illustrate how these pension deficits can be taken in hand.

President Barack Obama’s administration racked up nearly as much debt in eight years as in the entire 232-year history of the US before he took office. He entered office with $10.7 trillion in total debt, and he bowed out with the country owing $19.9 trillion. That’s an average tab of $1.15 trillion a year.

Under President Donald Trump, the debt has continued to climb. The $2.18 trillion increase works out to about $1.05 trillion a year, or slightly less than the pace Obama set.

Thursday, September 12, 2019

This research post continues our effort to keep investors aware of the risks and shifting capital opportunities that are currently taking place in the global markets. We started in PART I of this article by attempting to highlight how shifting currency valuations have played a very big role in precious metals pricing and how these currency shifts may ultimately result in various risk factors going forward with regards to market volatility.

Simply put, currency pricing pressures are likely to isolate many foreign markets from investment activities as consumers, institutions and central governments may need more capital to support localized economies and policies while precious metals continue to get more and more expensive.

Tuesday, September 10, 2019

It is the goal of this article to project the current financial, economic, and geopolitical trends to a logical and credible future outcome. Some of these trends such as in demographics have been in motion for decades, while other trends such as those for negative interest rates have been developing for a much shorter time frame. Pension asset accumulation and eventual payout also extend over decades, and therefore are reasonably predictable. Even money and credit creation trends by the FED have been in place for a long period of time. Finally, the extended bubble market in fixed income and equities, in light of slowing economic trends, provides some assurance to future price expectations.

It is anticipated that a market decline in global economic activity will reduce fixed income and equity prices such that it will start an unvirtuous cycle between the consumer as driver to the economy and financial markets. Market declines will become noticeable by negatively affecting pension asset accounts and actual payouts. Demographic trends will frustrate maintaining our Social Security viable, and severe measures will need to be taken. State, municipal, teacher, corporate and individual pensions are already falling short of their promises. The FED has a publicized goal of increasing inflation, while the President wants a weaker dollar. They will both succeed. By the time that we exit from the coming Great Global Recession, our dollar very likely will no longer be the world’s leading reserve currency, which will result in a dramatic decline in the purchasing power of the dollar affecting negatively domestic and foreign dollar asset holders, or those receiving pensions in dollars. The world will have become financially and geopolitically multipolar resulting in a new world order.

Tuesday, September 10, 2019

It seemed the markets wanted to make a point to alert us that volatility may be here to stay very early in trading this week. After a fairly flat overnight session with very little price volatility, the markets opened up to a moderately large price rotation (first downward, then back higher) before settling into a broader downside move in the early afternoon in New York. The interesting facet of this move is that it seemed to be related to price valuations and expectations in certain sectors. Before we get into the details, be sure to opt-in to my Free Market Forecast and Trade Ideas Newsletter so stay on top of these market moves.

As we’ve been suggesting for many weeks and months, we are not out of the woods quite yet. The US markets may be subject to more price volatility than we have considered while the continued Capital Shift (foreign capital pouring into the US markets) may also be shifting. One thing is certain, now is not the time to try to set up positional trades in the market expecting longer-term price trends to set up and run over the next few months. This appears to be a traders market where skilled technical traders will shine by finding opportunities and executing very skilled and targeted trades for profits.

Tuesday, September 10, 2019

One of the best examples of Wall Street’s propaganda machine at work is its willingness to dismiss recessionary signals. The inverted yield curve is a perfect example. Case in point, look at the story that was put out on Market Watch dated November 27th 2006—exactly one year before the Great Recession officially began, the stock market started its decline of more than half and the global economy started to collapse.

Here’s how some on Wall Street and the Fed described what was happening on the precipice of the global financial crisis regarding the inversion of the yield curve at that time: “Bernanke, and his predecessor Alan Greenspan, have attributed the inverted yield curve to a ‘global savings glut’ that has sparked fervid demand for Treasuries and U.S. corporate bonds. Economists have noted that this buying spree is inconsistent with the possibility of a looming recession. In the past inverted yield curves have been harbingers of recession, but a number of economists, including Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, do not think this is the case in the present instance.”

Tuesday, September 10, 2019

The first week of September played out as a picture perfect breakout continuation to our upside targets. If you recall, the final week of August showcased a massive weekly bull engulf candle that basically eclipsed/retraced all the losses of the prior 3 weeks of August for the monthly closing print. This meant that the bears failed, so it’s time for the bulls to launch their counterattack and nail in the coffin of the bears.

During the first week of September, the bulls did just that as they accomplished their ‘hold half and go’ upside continuation setup on Tuesday, holding between the 38.2% and 50% standard fib retracement of the last week of August’s range with the 2889 low on the Emini S&P 500 (ES). On Wednesday night, the bulls proceeded with the decisive breakout above the 2930s-2940s resistance zone, which was the key massive resistance/supply zone of the past 3-4 weeks. The usual feedback loop squeeze setup triggered a vicious cycle of stop-outs and chasers into the 2955 and 2970 continuation targets within minutes.

Monday, September 09, 2019

This shortened holiday week has been full of crazy price rotation, political intrigue, surprise news events and, we are certain, full of headaches for some traders. Still, we managed to pull out four consistently profitable trades for our members by sticking to our proven trading systems and deploying effective position sizing techniques. Not a bad week for us at all.

Today, we are writing this research post to highlight that price is still not “out of the woods” in terms of price structure and/or price rotation. Yes, there was quite a bit of external news that drove prices higher on Thursday and Friday (BREXIT, Earnings, and China decreasing the lending rates as well as decreasing bank asset levels in an effort to prompt more lending). These news items continue to drive price action and rotation. The VIX has settled at 15.00 as of Friday – the lowest level seen since early August 2019. Our opinion is that this is just a brief pause before more chaos hits the markets.

Monday, September 09, 2019

SPX: Long-term trend – Finallong-term phase on the way? How much longer, is the question.

Intermediate trend– We have started a correction of intermediate nature.

Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discusses the course of longer market trends.

Sunday, September 08, 2019

As much as we would like to report that the US Stock market has recently cleared the future concerns of a global economic recession as well as expanded into a new growth phase, we simply can’t make that claim give the data we are seeing from our proprietary price modeling systems. Overall, this final quarter of 2019, and early into 2020, may shape up to be a very volatile period in the global markets.

Before we get into the details, be sure to opt-in to my Free Market Forecast and Trade Ideas Newsletter so stay on top of these market moves.

Recently, we posted a research post highlighting the price structure of the ES and TRAN charts that continue to suggest price weakness is still driving overall price rotation. The TRAN chart is very telling currently as it shows much more substantial price weakness in comparison to the ES, NQ, and YM charts. We believe the continued price strength is seen in the ES, NQ, and YM charts is related to the continued “Capital Shift” where foreign investors are still pouring capital into the US markets believing they are the safest and most secure investments for the future.

US stock markets on Tuesday were like a teenager forced back to school after a summer of fast cars and girls - insolent and bad-tempered. Snapping a three-day winning streak, the Dow and the S&P 500 both fell after US and Chinese tariffs took effect over the long weekend. The sell-off was also influenced by weak US manufacturing data, and more worries over the UK crashing out of the European Union, after the governing Conservative Party lost its majority in the House of Commons due to a Tory member crossing the floor to the Liberal Democrats.

The US manufacturing index for August was just 49.1, marking the first time in three years that America’s manufacturing sector shrank, stoking fears that the slowdown in Europe - Germany is already in recession - has crossed the Atlantic.

The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield slid to 1.47%, from Friday’s close of 1.50%. Two weeks ago the 2-year Treasury note was higher than the 10-year, a worrying signal that investors are less willing to risk their money on a long-term debt instrument. Known as a yield curve inversion, this phenomenon has been a near-perfect recession indicator for the past 60-odd years.

Friday, September 06, 2019

The Dow chart says it all in terms of the volatile month of August we have just witnessed in the count down to the expiry of my 6 month long Dow stock forecast trend forecast as of 1st March 2019. During the month the Dow traded down from near its all time closing high of 27,359 (16th July 2019), trading down to a low 25,300 with the most recent price action attempting to break out of August's trading range of between 26,400 and 25,300 by closing at 26,403.

Thursday, September 05, 2019

Our August 19th prediction of a market breakdown, as well as our continued research suggesting a breakdown in price was the most likely outcome, is a combination of technical analysis, predictive modeling and our understanding of the market dynamics at play throughout the world. But, when news like this hits (global economic news, surprise news announcements or any type of positive or negative massive news event) the dynamics of the global markets can shift quite suddenly which we want to explain here. Before we get into the details, be sure to opt-in to my Free Market Forecast and Trade Ideas Newsletter so stay on top of these market moves.

Just a few days ago, it appeared that the US/China trade deal was still 30+ days away from any type of continued discussion and the UK Brexit was likely to take place this week and next. With US earnings season setting up in September, headed into the holiday season throughout the globe, we believed the downside price move probability was far greater than the upside. Then, out of almost nowhere, the No-Deal Brexit deal is sidetracked and the British Pound rallies dramatically on the news.

Thursday, September 05, 2019

The fears of imminent recession have been multiplying, and this has led to 1) plunging long term bond yields; 2) yield curve inversions and near inversions; and 3) a fearful Federal Reserve going into "dovish" mode in the attempt to prevent such a recession.

We've been here before, or at least we have with regard to those three particular components in combination. And the result was a tripling of already elevated stock market values in a little more than two years. With that tripling then being followed by a historic tripling of inflation-adjusted gold prices over the next decade.

History does not exactly repeat itself - but it does contain some powerful and surprising lessons that are well worth studying, particularly during times of market volatility.

Wednesday, September 04, 2019

The Rising US Dollar continues to shift the investing landscape as a stronger US Dollar mutes the price acceleration in precious metals and continue to put pricing pressures on the global economy. The current levels of the US Dollar Index, above 99, clearly illustrates how the shifting landscape of the global economies has changed. Prior to 2014/2015, when a minor currency/market crisis hit China and capital controls were installed in China to help reduce capital outflows, the US Dollar Index average price range was between 73 and 90. Of course, the US Dollar Index weakened in 2008-09 and rotated within this range after 2010 – settling near 80 near the beginning of 2014. Before we get into the details, be sure to opt-in to my Free Market Forecast and Trade Ideas Newsletter

So, this impressive rally in the US Dollar throughout the 2015-2016 US Presidential election cycle, as well as the continued rally since the lows near December 2018, is not something that we can simply chalk up to normal price rotation. Something dramatic has shifted in the global markets since 2015/2016 and the new trend is US Dollar strength.

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