Epistemic Status: Checked all the things I remembered reading that I wasn’t sure about. Not really original except for the last bit, and the last but seems like a pretty obvious thing given how commodities markets work. Didn’t try to figure out if it was likely to happen, just if it would work.

BART will extend to San Jose by 2026, assuming the Silicon Valley Extension Phase II goes through on schedule (I’ll leave it to you to determine how plausible that is). Once this is done, BART will connect to Caltrain not just at Millbrae, but also at San Jose Diridon and Santa Clara, and the two will make a complete loop around the South Bay. The question then becomes: which way around the bay do you go?

On this map, you can see the farthest point from you, by travel time. Eyeballing it, Redwood City and Bay Fair are the same color, so the farthest destination from Redwood City is Bay Fair. If you’re going to Fruitvale from Redwood City, you probably want to go north; going to Union City, and you want to go south.