I have not fully read everyone's analysis, but I believe we've all come to the conclusion that either emlightened and Snark are scum, or dimochka and jimbobmacdoodle are scum.

This being the case, I agree we should lynch emlightened today.- If emlightened is scum, we lynch Snark tomorrow.- If emlightened is town, we lynch jimbob tomorrow and dimochka the next day.Either way, we've found two scum. My reason for lynching emlightened and not jimbob is simply that jimbob's insanity would be more useful than emlightened's paranoia.

Assume everyone is telling the truth unless otherwise stated.Assume emlightened is scum.Jimbob must be town, by Diemos results.Diemo must have been sane and neither dimochka nor adnapemit can be sane.Jimbob can only be insane, since he has both town and scum results, and he got scum on Diemo.Jimbob got town on Snark, making Snark scum.Madge cannot be insane, making her paranoid.Adnapemit can only be naive and dimochka can only be insane, which accounts for the second insane cop.I cannot be insane, making me paranoid.Sabrar must have been sane.Adnapemit must be the third scum.Esthr can only be naive.Mikemk can only be naive.Suzaku must have been sane.That's three sane cops.Someone must be lying.

It's half an hour after midnight and I've just ruined my chart with scrawling and crossing and erasing and rescrawling. My head hurts. I hope my logic isn't flawed, I'm glad to have worked this out, and it'll be tough to puzzle it out again without drawing a whole new chart. I should try to digitise this.

Carlington wrote:Assume everyone is telling the truth unless otherwise stated.Assume emlightened is scum.Jimbob must be town, by Diemos results.Diemo must have been sane and neither dimochka nor adnapemit can be sane.Jimbob can only be insane, since he has both town and scum results, and he got scum on Diemo.Jimbob got town on Snark, making Snark scum.Madge cannot be insane, making her paranoid.Adnapemit can only be naive and dimochka can only be insane, which accounts for the second insane cop.

Carlington wrote:I cannot be insane, making me paranoid.Adnapemit must be the third scum.

Full logic time. I'm going to break this over two posts. The first is the proof that emlightened and Snark are scum, and that Esthr, Carlington, dimochka, Mikemk are Town, meaning that one of Madge or adnapemit are scum, assuming that I am Town. The second will prove that both dimochka and I cannot be Scum.

1. Assume I am Town.2. Diemo, Sabrar, Suzaku are Town (from their flips).3. Assume Suzaku is the Deputy (as discussed).4. emlightened and I are on different teams (different results from emlightened and me).5. emlightened is scum (from 1 and 4).6. Diemo is sane (from scum result on emlightened, town on me and 1 and 5).7. I am insane (my scum result on Diemo, town result on Snark and 2).8. Snark is scum (my town result on Snark, and 7).9. mikemk is Town (my scum result on him and 7).10. dimochka is insane (his town result on emlightened and scum result on Sabrar and 5).11. adnapemit is not sane (town result on emlightened and 5).12. mikemk is naive (town on me, town on Snark and 1 and 8).13. Only one of {adnapemit, Madge, Carlington, Esthr} is scum (from rules, plus 1, 2, 5, 8, 9, 10).14. Madge cannot be sane (scum results on Carlington and Esthr and 13).15. Carlington cannot be sane (scum result on Suzaku and 2).16. Esthr or Sabrar must be sane (only two sane, one is Diemo, and 5, 7, 8, 10-12, 14, 15).17. If Sabrar is sane, adnapemit is scum (from his scum result on adnapemit).18. If Esthr is sane, Madge is scum (from her town results on Carlington, adnapemit and dimochka, and 13).19. One of adnapemit or Madge is scum (17 and 18).20. Carlington is paranoid (from 7, 10, 15, 19, and scum result on Suzaku).21. Esthr is naive if she is not sane (town results on people mean not paranoid, and cannot be insane because 7 and 10).22. Sabrar is paranoid if he is not sane (scum result means not naive, cannot be insane because 7 and 10, and is town by 2).23. adnapemit is naive if Esthr is sane (Esthr got town result on her, cannot be insane by 7 and 10, cannot be sane by 11, cannot be paranoid by town results).24. Madge is paranoid if she is not scum (not naive, due to scum results, and 7, 10 and 14).

Important conclusions are 5, 8 and 19. We should lynch one of emlightened or Snark. dimochka and I should both investigate one of adnapemit or Madge.

Please point any flaws in the logic.

The second post may not be written until this evening, I'll see how long it takes.

I should be asleep, but I feel like there's so close to being enough here.

Four line proof that if jimbob is scum, so must be dimochka:

Assume jimbob is scum. Then emlightened is town.dimochka must be sane, as he got a town result on emlightened.dimochka must be insane, as he got a scum result on Sabrar.dimochka cannot be sane and insane, ergo, he is lying and thus scum.

I am prepared to vote for emlightened. I think we should figure out the most informative investigations for tonight before lynching, and a good claim order.I think we should lynch emlightened, and have everyone investigate her tonight as well. Then tomorrow we can either lynch jimbob if emlightened flips town and dimochka the next day, or else lynch Snark if emlightened flips scum, and either way everyone investigate jimbob. Then we know all the alignments, we will be at 2/1 in the worst case scenario and should have enough information on the last day to put it together. In the best case scenario, we'll wake up on D6 at 4/1 with an easy win.

emlightened would still be alive while we investigate before we lynch, but I'm not sure why we'd investigate him when we already know he's scum.

If we lynch emlightened D4, we cannot investigate her because investigations happen at night, at which point emlightened has already been lynched.

@Esthr - there's no reason jimbob should investigate me because we're both sure of each other's alignments and cop types. Hypothetically if we were scum we would still reveal results that align with what we said. I recommend the following:

jimbob investigate adnapemiti investigate madgeesthr investigates carlington (this is less important and i'm pretty open to other options)

i do not care whatsoever who does which other ones, so feel free to choose. If you disagree with my choices above please tell me why.

If you're curious about the origin of my avatar, google "Cheburashka".

I agree with dimochka. I will target adnapemit. If emlightened flips Scum, claim order isn't important, since it confirms both me and dimochka as Town. Our results will then determine who is scum out of Madge and adnapemit. I'll let someone who isn't guaranteed to be Scum to decide claim order in the event that emlightened flips Town.

I tried redoing my logic for how dimochka and I aren't scum, and I think I must have made a mistake, as I cannot verify it. Adnapemit, you said you'd been able to prove it. Could you explain your logic, please? If it can be shown that neither of us are scum, then we might as well go ahead with the lynch. If not, we should still do it, but some people who aren't implicated as scum in this case (i.e. not dimochka or I) should suggest possible targets for everyone else.

adnapemit: Can be scum, with Snark and Madge as useful cops.Mikemk: Can be scum, with adnapemit and Madge as useful cops.Madge: Can't be scum, as esthr, Mikemk and Snark would all have to be naive.Carlington: Can't be scum, as esthr, Mikemk and Snark would all have to be naive.Esthr: Can't be scum, as Madge wouldn't have a valid alignment.

Scum would kill Madge/Snark tonight (even easier if they don't!), and then adnapemit can cop Mike, and Snark/Madge can cop adnapemit. Their results will tell us who the third scum is, and job done!

My bad, of course we can't lynch emlightened and investigate her at the same time. Since emlightened and Snark are scum or jimbob and dimochka are scum, we can get the same result by lynching emlightened or jimbob and all investigating the player guaranteed to be co-aligned with whoever we lynch.

The reasoning for concentrating our cops is that the last scum is softclaiming either naive or paranoid, depending. Since we have players with known co- and counter-alignments, we can use this to calibrate. We should end up with three players claiming either naive or paranoid, and enough results to figure out the liar.Actually, since we have four players who are either scum or else we know their cop type, maybe have them investigate the potential leftover scum?

adnapemit: Can be scum, with Snark and Madge as useful cops.Mikemk: Can be scum, with adnapemit and Madge as useful cops.Madge: Can't be scum, as esthr, Mikemk and Snark would all have to be naive.Carlington: Can't be scum, as esthr, Mikemk and Snark would all have to be naive.Esthr: Can't be scum, as Madge wouldn't have a valid alignment.

We can clear players by assuming they're scum and working backwards. If we reach a contradiction then that player cannot be scum.Assume jimbob is scum.As shown above, dimochka is scum.Then, by assuming each player is scum, test for contradictions.Assume I am scum, then three people must be naive and none of them can be scum. Therefore, I cannot be scum.Assume Madge is scum, then the same contradiction occurs. Therefore, Madge cannot be scum.Assume you are scum, then no contradiction occurs if adnapemit and Madge are both useful cops. Therefore we cannot rule out you being scum.Assume adnapemit is scum, then no contradiction occurs if Snark and Madge are useful cops. Therefore we cannot rule out adnapemit being scum.Assume Esthr is scum, then there are no cops that Madge can be and she must be scum, but we already have the three scum. Therefore Esthr cannot be scum.

Emlightened is town by our initial assumption.I don't have time to run the same analysis on Snark because I start work in 4 minutes 30 seconds, I'll post in about 2 hours unless someone posts it first

The logic, as promised:Assume jimbob and dimochka are scumLogic for the other players is outlined in my last post.Assume Snark is scum.Madge and I both have results which mean we must be insane or paranoid.If Snark and dimochka are both scum, neither me nor Madge can be insane, so must both be paranoid.emlightened cannot be sane (scum on Diemo) emlightened cannot be insane (scum on jimbob)emlightened cannot be naive (at least one scum result) emlightened must be paranoidThis makes three paranoid cops, none of whom can be scum in this scenario, as all of their names have been cleared.Thus, Snark cannot be the third member of scumteam{jimbob, dimochka, ???}

I don't think this has been done yet for the universe where emlightened is scumIf emlightened is scum so is Snark, this has been provenJimbob is town, and insaneMikemk is town and naiveDiemo was saneRemaining possible scum: adnapemit, Carlington, Madge, Esthr, dimochka.Assume adnapemit is scumDimochka must be insaneMadge and I are paranoidSabrar is saneAdnapemit is paranoidThus adnapemit can be scum

Assume Madge is scumDimochka must be insaneAdnapemit is naiveEsthr is naiveThree naive cops, Madge cannot be scum

I cannot be scum or there's three paranoid cops

Dimochka cannot be scum or there's three sane cops

Sorry for abbreviating, I'm running out of time again. Feel free to follow through the logic for yourself, it should be well explained by now.

Your conclusion on Madge not being scum is wrong. Esthr is Sane if Madge is scum, along with Diemo. Sabrar and you are paranoid in this instance, adnapemit and mikemk naive, me and dimochka insane and Snark, emlightened and Madge scum.

Just to round off that last statement with a proof that Esthr can't be scum if I and dimochka are town:

As demonstrated, emlightened and Snark are scum.Assume Esthr is Scum.Dimochka is Sane (Scum result on Esthr, plus different results).But dimochka is not Sane because he got Scum on Sabrar.Therefore Esthr is not Scum, if me and dimochka are Town.

Sorry, you're right jimbob. I agree, and I remember having drawn the same conclusion previously from a different direction. I must have messed up my logic this time around, which is unsurprising given how much I was rushing.In the scum!emlightened-verse, the scumteam is {emlightened, Snark, (Madge | adnapemit)}

I am about to submit my action. Esthr, have you submitted yours? I think there's one particularly good choice you could make in terms of who to cop. I'll be investigating adnapemit, in case that helps you make your choice at all. I can elaborate if needed but only if needed.I also think adnapemit should claim first tomorrow. Then if emlightened flips scum, Madge claims second. Snark needn't bother claiming, and jimbob, dimochka, Esthr and I should claim in some order. If emlightened flips town then neither jimbob nor dimochka need bother claiming. Mikemk claims second, then Snark, Esthr and I.

To be honest, if emlightened flips scum, I see no reason for dimochka and I not to claim, as our results will say who the remaining scum is. I imagine it would be similar for the reverse case (i.e. emlightened flips town), though I haven't bothered figuring out who the cops are, and haven't been following that logic too heavily.

I don't think it does. From my point of view, you are naive, and I believe emlightened's chart (where I am scum) has you as naive or scum. You should still submit something though, and not a duplicate action. Best bet is probably me, since when emlightened flips, I will be guaranteed town (if scum flip) or scum (if town flip). That would confirm your naivety. However, others might have better ideas.

I just did more logic. I've been overcomplicating it.If emlightened flips scum, only adnapemit and Madge can be the last scum.Adnapemit must be naive - town results on Diemo and Sabrar rule out insane, town on emlightened rules out sane, town results rule out paranoid.Mikemk must be naive - town on Snark rules out sane, town on jimbob rules out insane, town rules out paranoid.Esthr must be naive - town on emlightened rules out sane, town on dimochka and I rules out insane, town rules out naive.

Esthr can't be scum in any case, like myself. Mikemk can only be scum with jimbob and dimochka. Thus if emlightened flips scum we lynch Snark and adnapemit.

I don't think it does. From my point of view, you are naive, and I believe emlightened's chart (where I am scum) has you as naive or scum. You should still submit something though, and not a duplicate action. Best bet is probably me, since when emlightened flips, I will be guaranteed town (if scum flip) or scum (if town flip). That would confirm your naivety. However, others might have better ideas.

I already investigated you and got town.

In fact, that I got town on both you and snark is why I'm assumed naive.

adnapemit investigates carlington (if somehow emlightened flips town, this could be a useful alignment to know)jimbob investigates adnapemit (will answer some questions)mikemk investigates esthr (FMPOV it doesn't matter because I know him to be naive)snark investigates dimochka (if i'm somehow lying, i think snark has a chance of being insane?)madge investigates mikemk (i think theres some version where mike is scum but that once again would mean i'm lying)carlington investigates snark (i believe snark is scum, and this would test whether carlington is actually paranoid, which again i fully expect him to be)esthr investigates jimbob (in cane esthr is sane, that will further confirm jimbob and will also help figure out adnapemit's role. if naive... well too bad)dimochka investigates madge (to test if madge is paranoid town or scum)

If/when emlightened flips scum, i don't see a reason not to claim in any order at this point.

vote emlightened

If you're curious about the origin of my avatar, google "Cheburashka".

I need to be asleep, but we're at L-2 at this point with, by word of mod, night actions missing. Hammering at this point is a bad thing.

I'm beginning to be pinged by how rapidly and fluidly Mikemk, jimbob, and dimochka are agreeing with one another. I'd almost be unsurprised if they were the scumteam, were it not for Snark having gone silent.

I was somewhat surprised when the Irregulars called in Inspector Lastrade. They had become convinced that one of the number at the party was in fact a nefarious agent of the Napoleon of crime. I am sure that the reader can imagine my delight as it turned out that the man they sent to the Yard was in fact the second most dangerous man in London, Sebastian Moran. However, in payment for their good work, the Irregulars reaped only tragedy. As soon as Inspector Lastrade had left the premises with Moran in tow, they found the body of young Jacob Thatcher, who had been stabbed from behind with a dagger by some cowardly fiend.

Emlightened has been lynched. She was Sebastian Moran, member of Moriarty's Gang.

Jimbobmacdoodle has been killed. He was a Baker Street Irregular.

Tentative deadline: Here. My suspicion is that less time is necessary at the moment…

Last edited by mpolo on Fri May 27, 2016 8:55 am UTC, edited 1 time in total.