Back when Germany invaded Russia the great George S. Kaufman remarked:
"I think they're shooting without a script."

After 11 weeks of NATO bombing, it is Clinton's hastily improvised script
that's been comprehensively shot through. We intervened to prevent a humanitarian
disaster: we accelerated it. We intervened to prevent the crisis spreading
and destabilizing neighboring countries: it spread. We intervened to "degrade"
Milosevic's military capability: he did a wonderful job of degrading ours
-- how many cruise missiles do we have left?

But repine not, the show ain't over yet. The script is still to be salvaged
and refined, and worries over production costs have been neatly shelved.

American taxpayers should feel content in the knowledge that Bill Clinton
has spent the last two months dropping this year's Republican tax cut
on Yugoslavia night after night. He may well be spending next year's Republican
tax cut on post-war reconstruction: rebuilding all the Serb bridges, railway
lines, utility plants, children's wards and KLA-held villages destroyed
by this year's Republican tax cut.

The White House script writers won't have too difficult a time with the
current Kosovo peace agreement. Fortunately for them, American audiences
no longer worry about continuity or plausibility.

The new script is simple: Bill Clinton stood up to war criminals; bravely
stood fast against unpatriotic criticism and continued the bombing; faced
down the evil Milosevic, and skillfully orchestrated the negotiations
that resulted in peace, prosperity and that warm fuzzy feeling each and
every refugee should be feeling. (Which is a good thing considering that
winter is likely to overtake the refugees long before they have homes
to shelter them from the cold).

And so the "happy ending" is back in the script. Never mind
the fact that when Clinton began the bombing he had no contingency plan
if Milosevic did not immediately accept the Rambouillet terms. Never mind
that, by ruling out ground troops, Clinton gave Milosevic the time and
space to expel 800 000 Kosovars and massacre thousands of others. Never
mind that the world's foremost military power flew 31 000 sorties, expending
20 000 very costly bombs and missiles on a country with a third-rate military.
Never mind that the current peace agreement does not embrace much of the
Rambouillet accords, demands that were sacrosanct before the bombing began.
Never mind that the KLA are not likely to disarm without Kosovo independence.
Never mind that thousands of unexploded mines from NATO cluster bombs
still litter the area. And never mind that peace, as of this writing,
is little more than words on paper. Milosevic has reneged on agreements
before and may yet again. The chances that this "peace" will
be simply a transition point between ethnic cleansing and ethnic warfare
are fairly, well, good.

Even if the Kosovo agreement ultimately goes through, U.S. troops will
be employed as policemen for many years still, increasing the strain on
an operational tempo that has, just in the last year, reduced our military
recruiting and retention figures down below the desired levels.

Not that any of this currently presents problems for us. President Clinton
and his scriptwriters made a point of editing these and other troubling
bits right out of the script.

The other troubling bits are things like the Cox Commission report issued
last month and the Rumsfeld Commission report issued last July. Both of
which indicate that the global view is disheartening at best. Note: both
were written with full access to intelligence sources, and both were issued
with the unanimous endorsement of serious Republicans and Democrats who
often disagree on policy.

The Cox report pointed out that China stole the design of small nuclear
weapons, got help from US companies in developing guidance systems for
aiming its missiles and, at least since 1996, with administration approval,
has purchased 600 high-performance computers. Roughly translated, this
means that China has the capability to build, test and deliver nuclear
weapons throughout East Asia and, eventually, much of the United States.

The Rumsfeld report indicated that rogue states like Iran, North Korea
and (in the not too distant future) Iraq could "inflict major destruction
on the US" with missile attacks. As we currently have no way of monitoring
their preparations, it is hard to determine just how quickly this threat
can be mobilized-it is estimated to be within five years of their deciding
to target us.(when ever that might be). At the moment, the United States
can do nothing to defend against such attacks.

But it isn't all bad tidings. Luckily the principal cast of stars-Clinton,
et al-should receive some measurable benefit from all this. Recall that,
as the bombing of Kosovo continued with no apparent result, Clinton's
job rating dropped to 53 percent and the war was creating a sense that
things were out of control.

That vague but growing sense that things were out of control, and that
the United States was facing new threats, surely contributed to Clinton's
rather low foreign-policy ratings even before bombing began March 24.
Without question, the numbers will steadily go up; though Clinton has
no halo, his wings are in fine form.

So, "facts be damned", the script will once again indicate
that everything is under control. That God's in heaven, and all is right
with the world... I can't help but think that a little Prokofiev might
provide an appropriate soundtrack to this farce.