Boehner warns Obama: If you veto our Plan B bill, the automatic tax hikes on January 1 are all on you; Update: House to vote even if bill is doomed?

posted at 5:13 pm on December 19, 2012 by Allahpundit

This is a leverage ploy, right? The House passes Plan B, Reid kills it in the Senate, and then Boehner gets to say, “We did what Democrats wanted by taxing millionaires and they still prefer to go over the cliff.” But … what if it doesn’t even pass the House? Then Democrats get to turn around and say that the GOP caucus won’t even agree to tax the rich when it’s their own Speaker asking them to do so. As of last night, per National Journal, GOP vote counters weren’t sure that Boehner had the votes. Grover Norquist did him a favor this morning by declaring that Plan B doesn’t violate Republicans’ no-tax pledge, and this’ll help too:

Meanwhile, though, several prominent conservatives, including Rep. Tim Huelskamp, held a presser this afternoon to denounce Plan B. The Club for Growth, which has been known to spend big to defeat wayward Republicans in primaries, came out hard against the bill today, as did the lobbying arm of the Heritage Foundation. According to The Hill’s whip count, there are at least 10 House Republicans who are either leaning no or a firm no, which leaves Boehner with little margin for error if Pelosi holds her caucus together. The point here, of course, isn’t to get Obama to sign the bill, just to stick Reid with it and force Senate Democrats to defeat something from the House that would allow tax hikes on millionaires. Ideally, seeing the House line up behind Boehner would also spur Obama to up his offer on the income threshold for the new tax hikes. It’s a messaging and negotiating game, but a lot of Republicans are off-message. Even Orrin Hatch says he’d oppose the bill. At what point do the PR returns on this gambit diminish to the point where it’s no longer worth pursuing? Or have I underestimated Boehner in thinking that he’s not prepared to walk away from negotiations if/when the House does pass this thing and leave Democrats to either pass it themselves or go over the cliff?

Conn Carroll makes the case to reluctant conservatives that this is, alas, as good as it gets:

The other reality many conveniently forget to mention is that spending is also set to be cut by $1.2 trillion. Boehner’s Plan B leaves those very real spending cuts untouched. Any deal with Obama would start by undoing the scheduled $1.2 trillion in spending cuts. Already, that is $1.2 trillion in the direction of bloated government. Plus, any deal with Obama would include far greater tax hikes than Plan B would allow, at minimum about $600 billion more. That is a total of $1.8 trillion in bigger government. How could any Republican defend that vote to their conservative constituents? Plus Plan B doesn’t raise the debt limit either. Republicans can then use that to try and restructure the sequester into meaningful entitlement reform later this year.

So conservatives have a stark choice. They can vote for Boehner’s Plan B, thus preserving the $1.2 trillion in spending cuts, and cut America’s tax burden by some $4 trillion, or they can vote against the Boehner plan and allow the full $4.6 trillion tax hike to hit their constituents. There is no possible way a better deal will come out of Boehner’s negotiations with Obama.

On the other hand, if Beohner fails to pass Plan B this week, the conservative negotiating position will be completely compromised. It will be clear no deal with conservatives is possible in the House.

Ultimately the strategic argument is an argument over how you think most House Republicans would respond to public pressure to reach a deal if we go over the cliff. Dave Weigel hears from GOPers on the Hill that they think the president, not Congress, would be blamed for any recession that ensues. I’m skeptical. The media frame won’t be “the president vs. Congress,” it’ll be “Obama vs. the Republicans,” and Obama’s brand lately polls higher than the GOP’s. Obama has the bully pulpit too: If the fiscal cliff standoff dragged on deep into January, he’d have not one but two major speeches (his inaugural and the State of the Union) in which to rally the public against the Republican position. There may well be groups of conservatives out there who’d hold the line even in the teeth of that sort of messaging onslaught. The House GOP isn’t one of them.

Boehner and other GOP leaders believe that even if the measure fails, it will show President Obama that Republicans won’t vote for a “fiscal cliff” deal unless it includes significant spending cuts.

“[GOP leaders] are just now trying to come up with some raw numbers and then I’m sure there’ll be decisions after that but I think he’s going to go through with it regardless,” the lawmaker said. “It would show the president that he doesn’t even have the votes for [tax cuts] with no [spending] cuts.”

So the bet is that Obama will cave on spending rather than take us over the cliff and dare House Republicans to hold the line even as middle-class tax rates lurch upward? I’ll take that bet.

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Ultimately the strategic argument is an argument over how you think most House Republicans would respond to public pressure to reach a deal if we go over the cliff. Dave Weigel hears from GOPers on the Hill that they think the president, not Congress, would be blamed for any recession that ensues. I’m skeptical.

OK, let’s pretend the GOP gets blamed… then so what? Let the GOP get blamed.

AP, you and the rest of the GOP need to be even more pessimist than you are… we’re doomed, so be doomed on principle.

Hardly ideal, but if the 1.2 trillion in cuts stays and current tax rates are preserved for the majority, then it seems foolhardy not to vote for it. While I respect the position of the conservatives in the house, this is one situation where I’d rather they bend a little bit.

It’s a strategic retreat on tax rates for millionaires, but it’s a strategic advance on tax rates for everybody else and on spending cuts. Two out of three ain’t bad, take it and let the Senate Dems and Obama try to block it. The campaign ads against the dems in 2014 will write themselves.

Wait, I didn’t think ‘plan b’ had anything about spending cuts in it; isn’t all about *avoiding the cliff*, which entails both tax increases *and* spending cuts? If we just do a deal that increases taxes (though lower), doesn’t the deal have to spell out the cuts, or at least indicate that the ‘sequester’ will happen anyway?

Maybe I didn’t read things correctly, but I don’t think this plan indicates spending cuts, which was part of the grousing about it to begin with?

I like the gambit and messaging here– it is indeed as good as it gets for us

Pass the tax part, go home and stay on message

The media is showing cracks and even as biases as they are, have to admit the Dims juvenile arguments and behavior here

We’re getting blamed anyway, so might as well cut and run with plan B

Then we can hold the debt limit and sequester cuts over their heads in 2013– this is a much stronger negotiating position

Obama is using the BUsh rates for the middle class as a cudgel, take that away and he has zero leverage

thurman on December 19, 2012 at 5:31 PM

+1. This is what I’ve been arguing all along. I’m not afraid of the cliff. I’m afraid of Obama looking like a hero when a panicked public realizes there isn’t going to be a deal. He’s not a hero — he’s the guy who’s pushing us over the cliff, and he’s doing it intentionally. All Boehner can do is limit the PR damage to Republicans. This is the right move. Only question now is how it will play out.

If this isn’t enough to convince the public that Republicans are negotiating in good faith and Obama isn’t, then nothing is.

Pass plan B. Name it the “Obama Tax Increase” and keep calling it that for the rest of his term. Use it every single time a poor report on the economy comes out, every week, every month, and every quarter. Name it and let the dems own it.

If this isn’t enough to convince the public that Republicans are negotiating in good faith and Obama isn’t, then nothing is.

Caiwyn on December 19, 2012 at 5:51 PM

That’s half the battle. The other half is do what the filthy vermin called Democrats do. Repeat the message over and over again that this is the doing of the rat-eared wonder and Senate Dems. The House is due to recess on Friday and the rat-eared wonder is supposed to start his $4M vacation on Saturday. The question is if either will really happen or if we get a “Christmas miracle” on Monday the way Pelosi jammed through Obamacare.

stefanite,
okay, so you want to give him what he wants and call in the day?

rob verdi on December 19, 2012 at 5:51 PM

There is nothing the GOP can do. All these “negotiations” are a joke. Obama doesn’t want a deal, he’s just toying with us. He wants higher taxes, period. The GOP should take a stand on principle, lose, and then let it burn.

“The Obowma Economy… The Obowma Economy… The Obowma Economy… The Obowma Economy… The Obowma Economy… The Obowma Economy… The Obowma Economy… The Obowma Economy… The Obowma Economy… The Obowma Economy… The Obowma Economy… The Obowma Economy… The Obowma Economy… The Obowma Economy… The Obowma Economy… The Obowma Economy… The Obowma Economy… The Obowma Economy… The Obowma Economy… The Obowma Economy… The Obowma Economy… The Obowma Economy… The Obowma Economy… The Obowma Economy… The Obowma Economy… The Obowma Economy… The Obowma Economy… The Obowma Economy… The Obowma Economy… The Obowma Economy… The Obowma Economy… The Obowma Economy… The Obowma Economy… The Obowma Economy… The Obowma Economy… “

… Couldn’t you just see the petulant one throwing tantrums and stomping his feet?

So the bet is that Obama will cave on spending rather than take us over the cliff and dare House Republicans to hold the line even as middle-class tax rates lurch upward? I’ll take that bet.

Well I doubt that I’m thinking the same thing Boehner is thinking, but my initial impression is, based on what I would do, the point of passing the rate extension for the lower 99% in the House even if the Senate and Obama are against it, is that it makes it official that Obama and the Dems are against preserving tax rates for the lower 99%, not the Republicans.

But in order for it to work Republicans may have to accept the sequestration… except that a lot of Democrats don’t want the sequestration, either, IMO. I don’t think either party wants to cut spending so a lot of Democrats will probably cave on that. But if Obama goes over the cliff on taxes it on their shoulders.

Pass plan B. Name it the “Obama Tax Increase” and keep calling it that for the rest of his term. Use it every single time a poor report on the economy comes out, every week, every month, and every quarter. Name it and let the dems own it.

STL_Vet on December 19, 2012 at 5:55 PM

Oh! Not just for economic issues! Crime increase- Obama Tax Increase makes more people desperate. Hole in the ozone layer- people are holding on the old cars longer because they can’t afford a new one because of the Obama Tax Increase. The GOP should even consider running an ad or two with some unemployed worker whose spouse died of cancer- because of the Obama Tax Increase.

Oh! Not just for economic issues! Crime increase- Obama Tax Increase makes more people desperate. Hole in the ozone layer- people are holding on the old cars longer because they can’t afford a new one because of the Obama Tax Increase. The GOP should even consider running an ad or two with some unemployed worker whose spouse died of cancer- because of the Obama Tax Increase.

As much as I dislike Boehner right now and want him out I still think it probably is wise to pass it and force Reid to kill it or pass it, or whatever. If I was the house GOP I would just leave Washington after the vote and let them figure out what to do.

Frankly I would be happy with going over the cliff at this point, especially after Obama’s little jerk performance today. It may hurt the GOP in the short term, but they tried to deal and in the long term it will help the GOP because great American presidents don’t go over cliffs…they deal. They are the leader…they are supposed to do something.

Republicans will be blamed anyway – judging from this blog (representative of the liberal stance)even the educated young base their conclusions on the liberal position using Krugman’s data to try to validate their points. It’s unfortunate that their reading does not extend beyond the liberal media.

From the blog:

“Look at the second to last column. Every year we pay more and more in interest until 2009. Then it drops and stays pretty low. Why? Because the federal government can pay almost nothing to acquire long term debt as explained above. Hell, people will pay them to acquire short and medium term debt (up to 7 years!).

Do we need to do something about the debt? Absolutely, but not in a depressed and now stagnant economy. So why do we need to reduce the deficit in a depressed economy? We don’t. Borrowing is cheap. If I told you that you could take out a 10-year loan for 0.38% above inflation, try to make money with it, and then pay it back do you think you could? If your answer is no then keep your 9 to 5, otherwise welcome to America. Let’s borrow more money so investors have something to do with all their cash that’s sitting on the sidelines or in gold bars doing nothing. Let’s build some bridges, fix some national parks, upgrade our research facilities, double NASA’s funding, fix our schools, invest in cleaner energy, help the poor, and provide basic healthcare to all. It’s an investment in our basic infrastructure and I bet the returns will be more than 0.38% over inflation.”

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — Fiscal-cliff brinkmanship escalated on Wednesday, with President Barack Obama saying it’s “puzzling” that Republicans haven’t accepted his latest offer, and House Speaker John Boehner vowing to pass a GOP bill that would cut taxes for most Americans.

“I have gone at least half way” to meet Republican concerns, Obama told reporters at the White House after he announced the formation of a special panel to recommend steps to prevent gun violence.

“The fact that they haven’t taken it yet is puzzling,” he said.

Replying to Obama in a brief mid-afternoon statement to reporters, Boehner said the House on Thursday will approve the Republican “Plan B” to extend Bush-era tax cuts for Americans earning less than $1 million.

If the Democratic-controlled Senate doesn’t pass it, Boehner said, Obama would be responsible for “the largest tax increase in American history.”

While both sides prodded each other in public on Wednesday, offers in recent days(More….)
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Have they never heard the phrase, “Don’t the let the perfect be the enemy of the good”?

The GOP has to face some level of political reality here. Taxes on the wealthy are going to go up, whether they go up with a deal or they go up after the “cliff” when the only cuts that will get through are middle-class cuts. They’d be better off fighting the spending fight at the debt-ceiling, when they would have more leverage having taken the tax hammer out of the Dems’ hands now.

You would think the party of the military would understand the concept of “tactical retreat to a more defensible position”. But no… the Party of Stupid is going to die on this particular hill.

The GOP needs leadership with clear and principled positions. Paul Ryan’s budget plan (though flawed) was a step in this direction. I’ve had it with this constant game of trying to figure out when the House GOP is going to cave on any given issue.

We Conservatives keep getting all tied into knots over a Party that will keep letting us down with stupid moves. This isn’t a football team. Quit cheerleading! Be patient. This system will crash. Either the government folds or our currency crashes. It is then we can pick up the pieces, educate the low-information voters (morons) and, hopefully, rebuild the Republic into the model the Framers intended.

Borrowing is cheap. If I told you that you could take out a 10-year loan for 0.38% above inflation, try to make money with it, and then pay it back do you think you could? If your answer is no then keep your 9 to 5, otherwise welcome to America. Let’s borrow more money so investors have something to do with all their cash that’s sitting on the sidelines or in gold bars doing nothing. Let’s build some bridges, fix some national parks, upgrade our research facilities, double NASA’s funding, fix our schools, invest in cleaner energy, help the poor, and provide basic healthcare to all. It’s an investment in our basic infrastructure and I bet the returns will be more than 0.38% over inflation.”

integrity now on December 19, 2012 at 6:08 PM

That is unbelievably lame imo.
The comparison..if I’m understanding you correctly..of a private, debt free person, borrowing cheap money to invest, and a government, which never produces anything and gets all of it’s money the from confiscation of other peoples efforts, and has 16 trillion in real debt, not counting 100+ trillion in unfunded mandated spending, simply going massively more in debt and that being the *smart* thing to do, is an asinine comparison.

Go over the cliff and republicans STILL WILL get the blame and it will play that way in the public too.

You all are morons if you think that wont happen. For pete’s sakes, people were still blaming BUSH for the state of the economy up to this last presidential election … so right there is your first clue.

Plus, this will kill any chance of republicans holding a good majority in any chamber again.

Borrowing is cheap. If I told you that you could take out a 10-year loan for 0.38% above inflation, try to make money with it, and then pay it back do you think you could? If your answer is no then keep your 9 to 5, otherwise welcome to America. Let’s borrow more money so investors have something to do with all their cash that’s sitting on the sidelines or in gold bars doing nothing. Let’s build some bridges, fix some national parks, upgrade our research facilities, double NASA’s funding, fix our schools, invest in cleaner energy, help the poor, and provide basic healthcare to all. It’s an investment in our basic infrastructure and I bet the returns will be more than 0.38% over inflation.”

integrity now on December 19, 2012 at 6:08 PM

I misunderstood your post as being in favor of unchecked spending.
Sorry.

I think many people are missing the point, if we go over the cliff, Obama’s 2nd term agenda becomes Kaput.

rob verdi on December 19, 2012 at 5:24 PM

We go over the cliff and Average Joe starts paying more in taxes and we go back into a recession, guess who loses the House in 2014?

Obama won’t get the blame. Don’t be naive by thinking the majority of voters will know the facts.

ButterflyDragon on December 19, 2012 at 5:28 PM

Obama may not get the blame, but he’ll still be hit with a recession in the first half of his second term, his final period of relevance as president. For a man who aims to be world historical, this strikes a blow to the thing most important to him – his ego.

As it is, due to ObamaCare and Dodd-Frank, the president is likely to end up where Roosevelt might have in 1940 were it not for the imminent threat of WWII – a socialist who passed a lot of welfare legislation, but who ultimately oversaw two terms of economic stagnation. The president had better be careful to not overplay his hand and turn this likelihood into a certainty.

Obama may not get the blame, but he’ll still be hit with a recession in the first half of his second term, his final period of relevance as president. For a man who aims to be world historical, this strikes a blow to the thing most important to him – his ego.

The Bringer on December 19, 2012 at 7:11 PM

This assumes that a realistic view of the events will be distributed to the public.
It won’t.
Obama would most likely put on his “I told you so..if you would have just let me do things without the roadblocks of checks and balances, this would never had happened. So are you going to give me the power to fix this, or try and stand in my way again?”, schtick.
All with the help and support of the msm.

Since it’s doomed to fail, and since Obama is the beautiful daughter and the GOP is the “also family” daughter, why not put together an actual piece of legislation that addresses the actual problems and actually pass that?

It is then we can pick up the pieces, educate the low-information voters (morons) and, hopefully, rebuild the Republic into the model the Framers intended.

Decoski on December 19, 2012 at 6:49 PM

The problem with that, is that the pieces are already being picked up and rebuilt into a system that will not allow rebuilding in the Framers model.

Mimzey on December 19, 2012 at 7:08 PM

The other problem is that there is now no other direction to go. The U.S. has been predestined to collapse and reemerge as a Socialist country with a multitude of communist trappings, with a citizenry so dumbed-down into mere savagery that will accept being in indentured servitude to Emperor Obama II, dictator-for-life.

We have no control and cannot change course in anyway. Just prepare for the hell that awaits us all.

CHARLES KRAUTHAMMER: I think the president invoking the massacre of children to essential say the Republicans need to accept his terms of surrender in the negotiations is not just a non-sequitur, I think it’s sacrilege. And it’s of a piece with the whole tone of his news conference and this is the way he conducts them generally, which is he is excessively self-righteous. He talks about the other side of being unprincipled, not interested in the national interest, slaves of ideology which he says makes no sense. And as you mention, invested in opposing him to the point they are willing to let the country suffer.

So it’s a combination of self-righteousness and narcissism. It’s just a very unpleasant tone and there is no reason he can’t either avoid that or give some credit to the other side for sincerity in just seeing a different way to approach the crisis the country has. I think that would be respectful but it’s a lot to ask of Obama and he never delivers on that.

The House should send a single small bill limiting President vacations to $1,000,00 twice a year.

Nothing else should be in that bill. Make it one page and just a few sentences. Let the Democrats reject it.

And when they do reject it.. send it back again.

Then send another small single bill… one page.. just a few sentences.. that cuts something else.

Send a bill that cuts tax payers from having to buy Wagyu steak from the WH menu. In 2009 it cost $59. a pound. Have no idea what it costs now. Is it right if we’re about to go over a fiscal cliff Obama gets to eat like he’s a king? Let the Democrats reject it. Let Obama defend his steaks.

The GOP needs to start thinking outside of the box! Stop playing nice!

Lot of battered wife syndrome going on in this post. The Republicanns will never change; never. You are always going to be abused. They will throw out a couple of baubles when you threaten to leave…and you will stay. They will promise to change, they won’t.

Lot of battered wife syndrome going on in this post. The Republicanns will never change; never. You are always going to be abused. They will throw out a couple of baubles when you threaten to leave…and you will stay. They will promise to change, they won’t.

Panther on December 19, 2012 at 7:59 PM

Speaker BOHICA clearly suffers from battered wife syndrome, too. Of course the Dems and the MSM play the role of a psychopathic killer. Suits them all well.

Now that I have dumped the Republican Party (and so far they haven’t done anything to make me regret it), not sure what to do for the next election. There isn’t any political party for me to vote for.

Varchild on December 19, 2012 at 7:49 PM

We survived much worse than Obama and his voters… We survived the Civil War, the great depression, two world wars, and more effective and destructive socialist Presidents like FDR and LBJ and their voters… Not only we survived all this but we prospered as well… However in each generation there are people like you who think that they are living the worst of times and it is all over during their times… Nothing new under the sun…

Not a problem. I posted it here to underscore the point that the liberal idiocy regarding the economy seems to be ingrained in the younger generations – and for them Republicans, conservatives and even libertarians are anathema.

The writer of the blog challenges the “opposition” to prove him wrong with facts and figures, which leads me to believe he reads nothing but the liberal media when it comes to these topis.

after four years of manic obstructionism, the chickens are coming home to roost.

sesquipedalian on December 19, 2012 at 6:46 PM

In fact low IQ communist scum, in the first two of the last four years your communist party had total control of Congress with huge majority in the House and a filibuster proof majority in the Senate… The Republicans could not stop the parasite class President and his party from passing the destructive Stimulus and the very destructive Obamacare… In regards to taxes it was your parasite class President and his party who still control Congress back in December 2010 who voted with the Republicans to extend the Bush tax cuts for two more years because they said that not extending them will destroy the economy and they were right for once… Nothing changed regarding the economy it is still as bad as in 2010 and not extending the Bush tax cuts for “everyone” including the “JOB CREATORS” is going to destroy the economy…

Now after I destroyed you with facts you can go ahead and f*** yourself…