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Since the industrial revolution, sea-level rise has been fast by natural standards. It may reach 80cm above today’s sea-level by the year 2100 and 2.5m by 2200, even without development of unexpected processes.

A statistical background pattern of natural sea-level rise has been derived through a study of several million years of rates and timescales of sea-levels.

This background pattern was compared with historical tide-gauge measurements and satellite observations taken since the industrial revolution.

The research team, from ANU and the National Oceanography Centre in Southampton, looked at the speed of the observed changes and whether they were within the normal, natural range of sea-level changes according to their pattern. They found that though the rate of rise was fast, it was just within the natural range.