Oakland A's

July 07, 2014

Over the weekend, the Chicago Cubs added yet another elite talent to a collection that was already the best farm system in baseball, giving them perhaps the best collection of hitting prospects in one farm system that we've seen in decades. Perhaps you heard the deal, but the gist of it was that the Cubs send two starting pitchers, Jeff Samardzija and Jason Hammel, to the contending Oakland A's, who sent back their top prospect, shortstop Addison Russell, along with outfield prospect Billy McKinney and veteran starter Dan Straily. Russell and Samardzija were the big pieces, with the latter signaling a willingness on A's GM Billy Beane's part to go for a title with a strong team while the former adds not only additional elite talent to the Cubs system, but yet another infielder for whom they need to find time.

Much was already being made of the potential logjam awaiting the Cubs once all of their prospets reach the major leagues. With current major leaguers Starlin Castro and Anthony Rizzo under control for a few years and experiencing rebound seasons, the Cubs were already going to have to get creative to find a way to get Javier Baez, Kris Bryant, Arismendy Alcantara and Kyle Schwarber all into the same lineup along with the established veterans. Positional dominos seem like the only answer, with Baez shifting to third base, Bryant sliding to a corner outfield spot, and either he or Schwarber having to learn to play right field (instead of left) if Schwarber can't remain behind the plate. The Cubs haven't shifted anyone yet, but if everyone were to remain in their place and everyone develops to their potential, we can read the writing on the wall about how to get everyone in the same lineup.

Now, adding Russell to the mix, things get even cloudier.

Russell is a natural shortstop and is a better defender than Baez. If given the choice between the two, the Cubs would likely keep Russell up the middle and slide Baez elsewhere. This, of course, could all be moot if Starlin Castro remains in town.

The Cubs are not worried about such problems, however, and rightly so. Where everyone will eventually play has been a source of extreme panic for Cubs fans over the past year, and the addition of Russell to the mix only further clouds the future picture. The fact is that Rizzo, Castro, Baez, Bryant, Russell, Alcantara and Schwarber can't all play at the same time, unless some major positional changes are made. It's also unlikely that all of them will reach their potential.

We love to get excited about prospects - no one more so than me - but it's a simple truth that we get over-excited about prospects, often touting them as sure things when, by their nature, they are anything but. Rizzo and Castro have established major league track records and can be counted on, but the remaining five, along with other prospects like Albert Almora, who is even further away, can't be relied on with any kind of certainty.

Which could give the Cubs options. Perhaps their plan is to assemble all of these players together, give them all a chance to play at the major league level knowing that a few of them won't pan out, leaving themselves with a pretty good crop of prospects who did reach their potential and plenty of at-bats to go around. I doubt this is their plan, but it's possible.

More likely, however, is that the Cubs will do their due diligence in self-evaluating, both of their own players and the trade market, and use these assets to fill in the blanks as these players reach the major leagues. That blank, as any Cubs fan will tell you, is starting pitching.

The Cubs are going to have to add some starting pitching from somewhere. They know that. That does not, however, mean they should have taken a lesser return for Samardzija and Hammel. In the market that existed a few days ago, Russell was the biggest, most talented piece made available to the Cubs. They rightly accepted him into their system and will figure out the rest later. At some point, the Cubs will flip some of their assets, whether it's prospects or veterans, for pitching, and the more assets they have, the better they can do in those trades. On this market, there was no bigger asset available than Russell.

One possibility that seems to have gotten stronger with the addition of yet another young shortstop is the eventual trade of Castro, whose value has never been higher. Castro has his flaws, but there will be plenty of suitors for a 24-year-old three-time all-star who can play up-the-middle. If they are willing to trade in-division, the Cubs could find a trade partner in the Pittsburgh Pirates, who have inserted themselves back into the race and desperately need an upgrade at shortstop. A trade with them could net, at minimum, a pitcher like Nick Kingham, or perhaps even a Tyler Glasnow, though the Pirates are extremely frugal with their top prospects as trade chips, instead choosing to deal from their exceptional depth rather than their high-end assets. Still, that's just one speculative possibility of how the Cubs can add pitching down the road. Finding trade partners for young talent, be it Castro, Rizzo or any of their hitting prospects, won't be the challenge for the Cubs. Evaluating their situation internally is where this plan will succeed or fail, but their recent track record of evaluation suggests that the decision making is in good hands.

We don't know how this will play out, but adding yet another elite piece of talent to the equation can only help their organizational flexibility when the time comes to make a move specific to the needs of the major league team. Right now, there appears to be a logjam coming, but no team has the collection of talent that the Cubs can offer, and using that collection as currency is an excellent way to provide options in the future.

Long-term, this means nothing for Russell, who profiles as an above-average offensive shortstop and potential impact bat at one of the most important positions on the field. In our ETA series, I projected that Russell would be in the majors by the middle of next summer and this injury doesn't necessarily change that projection. There was a possibility, however, that if he took off with the bat again this season, this time in Double-A, that he could be called on as a reinforcement towards the end of this season, similar to the way the Red Sox handled Xander Bogaerts last season during their World Series run. This injury doesn't eliminate that possibility, but it certainly makes it a stretch.

Unlike Russell, Bogaerts had a taste of Double-A entering last season, but spent just half of 2013 there before moving up to Triple-A before his September call-up. With at least a month on the shelf, it will be tough for Russell to get that amount of experience to justify a promotion. Of course, with little to no offensive production coming from the second base position and a current shortstop in Jed Lowrie who could slide across to the other side of the bag, adding Russell to the lineup in August or September could be an improvement, even if he's not completely ready for the assignment.

Any promotion at this point would require exceptional play upon return from injury and a complete recovery in his legs so that his range is back to where it needs to be to handle the defensive rigors of the shortstop position. Getting him to the majors seemed like a stretch even with a healthy 2014 season, so this injury likely rules it out, though not completely. More likely, however, is that we see Russell in the majors closer to his mid-summer timetable for next year.

March 31, 2014

It's Opening Day, which is as good of a time as any to look at which prospects, both high-profile and non=descript, are now in the majors, and perhaps for how long.

Baltimore Orioles: Jonathan Schoop made the roster, which we knew was a possibility, thanks to terrible other choices at second base and his ability to play third base as well while Manny Machado is out. Kevin Gausman did not make the team, even though there was consideration to keep him in the major league bullpen. The Orioles made the right decision, however, and will let him work as a starter in Triple-A, where he will be on call for a promotion at any time.

Boston Red Sox: Xander Bogaerts inclusion on the opening day roster turned out to be a given as expected, but Jackie Bradley's was not. The center field prospect lost out to Grady Sizemore after a poor spring from the rookie. He may still be up soon if Shane Victorino has to go on the DL, but for now he's in Triple-A waiting for an opportunity.

Detroit Tigers: It was the Nick Castellanos show this spring and he didn't disappoint. He's the team's best young player and he played like it all of March. If he can carry that over into the spring, the Tigers will have already answered one of their few question marks for the season. The Tigers also kept Tyler Collins on the big league roster, making the jump from Double-A to help hold down left field until Andy Dirks returns. Collins will platoon with Rajai Davis.

Houston Astros: No prospects on the Astros roster, and they will probably keep it that way until the super two deadline has safely passed. George Springer will lead the way, likely around June, but there will be plenty of prospects on this team by season's end.

Kansas City Royals: There's no doubting that the Royals are going for things this year, and they doubled down on that plan by keeping Yordano Ventura in the rotation. He's my pick for AL Rookie of the Year.

Seattle Mariners: James Paxton will be in the Mariners rotation from the start of the season, and Taijuan Walker will join him as soon as he gets off the DL. The majority of the rest of the Mariners impact young talent was promoted last season.

Tampa Bay Rays: Jake Odorizzi will have a chance to prove his readiness while Jeremy Hellickson is on the shelf. He could establish himself and stick in the rotation if he does well.

Texas Rangers: Michael Choice has more of an opening to play in Texas than he would have in Oakland. He's on the major league roster but is scheduled to share at-bats for now, playing mostly against lefies. I expect him to hit his way into the lineup more frequently.

Toronto Blue Jays: No prospects on the Blue Jays roster, although Marcus Stroman will be up at some point this season and Aaron Sanchez looked significantly better this spring. He could move quickly if he continues to have better command.

February 28, 2014

This is the tenth and final part of our series taking an in-depth look at when the top prospects in the game will reach the majors. For the rankings on this list, I used the Baseball Prospectus Top-101.

The Twins farm system is much more than just Buxton, but he's the one it all hinges on. When they decide to call him up is the official start of their future, and the date of his arrival at Target Field will be about more than just when he's ready. To this point, the minor leagues have offered nothing close to a challenge, and an assignment to Double-A probably won't do much to change that. Some guys just don't need a lot of time in the minors and Buxton appears to be one of them. He'll start the year in New Britain but I can't see him being there much past the Futures Game (which just so happens to be in Minnesota this year). Whether he gets promoted to Triple-A at that point or jumps straight to the majors remains to be seen, but it's not a stretch to think he could get a late-season cameo in the big leagues. At the very least, he should be in the middle of the Twins lineup by next season.

ETA: Late 2014

What Could Speed It Up: If he continues to hit in the upper minors the way he did in A-ball, he may just stay in Minnesota after the all-star break.

What Could Slow It Down: If he comes back to Earth and plays like a normal human being, the Twins could let him split the season between Double and Triple-A and call him up next June. He is just 20, after all.

As of right now, Bogaerts is the Red Sox starting short stop. That shadow lurking over him is the possibility of the still-unsigned Stephen Drew returning to Boston. If that happens, Bogaerts will likely slide over to third base, making Will Middlebrooks the odd man out, but that's not a given. Bogaerts could also return to Triple-A so everyone gets at-bats. A lot of things have to happen for Bogaerts not to make the Red Sox roster this spring, but all of them are possible. The most likely scenario, however, is that he's playing short stop for the defending world champions on Opening Day.

ETA: April 2014

What Could Speed It Up: N/A

What Could Slow It Down: Drew's signing would throw a wrench into things.

Taveras is going to head back to Triple-A to begin the season both because he was injured too often last year to really get his feet wet there, and because the Cardinals major league outfield is overcrowded. Taveras is one of those prospects who will do some special things in spring training and make everyone wonder why he's not on the team yet, but the Cardinals are so deep that they can afford to wait until the time is right. The long grind of a major league season should provide an opportunity for Taveras to come up and get a chance to get some at-bats, but much of that will be out of his control. Until then, he'll head to Triple-A, hit everything in sight, and generally make Peter Borjous feel inadequate.

ETA: Mid-2014

What Could Speed It Up: It would take an injury this spring to open up a spot in the Cardinals outfield for him.

What Could Slow It Down: If everyone in the majors plays up to their potential there won't be a place to put Taveras this year. He also is coming off a nagging injury.

The things Baez did to baseballs across minor league parks last year were too impressive to ignore, hitting 37 home runs and finishing the year in Double-A as a 20-year-old. He spent just 54 games in Double-A, so theoretically he could return there, but his 20 home runs in that time suggest that that may be unnecessary. Putting him in Triple-A would make him just an easy phone call away from the majors at any time during the season, and one look at the Cubs roster makes it apparent that they'll need him sooner rather than later.

ETA: Late 2014

What Could Speed It Up: An early-season power binge could convince the Cubs to promote Baez as soon as the super two deadline passes.

What Could Slow It Down: If Starlin Castro rebounds and re-affirms himself as the team's shortstop, Baez will have to shift over to third base. That transition could take some time in the minors for him to adjust to.

Correa broke out the way scouts expected he would in his first full-season in 2013, but having just turned 19, he still has plenty of time before he's in Houston. The Astros are going to do their best to time things so that all of their top prospects are together in the majors at the same time, and that could mean moving Correa quickly now that he's established himself in a full-season league. He'll head to the California League in 2014 and could do some serious damage there. The Astros don't want to move Correa too quickly, however, and rush him to the majors before his power has a chance to fully develop.

ETA: June 2016

What Could Speed It Up: If he goes off on the California League to start this season, he could be in Double-A by mid-year and all bets will be off.

What Could Slow It Down: If the Astros decide to go level-by-level with him throughout the minors, which would still get him to the majors by 22.

If you needed a routine ground ball fielded to save your life, Lindor would be the minor leaguer you'd choose to field it. He's ready to play short stop in the majors today if the Indians needed him. As it is, he's still blocked by Asdrubal Cabrera for the 2014 season. Cabrera could be on the move if the Indians aren't contending, and Lindor will be just a step away. He'll probably return to Double-A Akron to start the year, but he could be in Triple-A by mid-season or he could just straight from there.

ETA: Late 2014

What Could Speed It Up: Moving Cabrera, either to another position or by trading him.

What Could Slow It Down: If the Indians are contending again and Cabrera returns to form, Lindor will have to wait until 2015 for his shot.

Russell put together a great all-around season in High-A ball last year, and soon as he proves he can do it outside of the California League, he should get a call to come to Oakland. The A's have Jed Lowrie doing a great job at short stop at the moment, but he has a long injury history and the ability to slide over to second base upon Russell's arrival, where the A's currently have below-average offensive production. Russell may not be ready this year, but it's a possibility. At the very least, however, he's someone the A's hope to be able to count on in their off-season plans for next year.

ETA: June 2015

What Could Speed It Up: If he takes off in Double-A this year and Lowrie goes down, Russell could be called on as reinforcements.

What Could Slow It Down: Russell wouldn't be the first prospect to see his production drop off dramatically from Stockton to Midland, and if he hits a funk, he could need most of the season in Double-A to work it out.

Bradley is a prime candidate for spring training helium because his arsenal is so impressive at first glance. He's going to wow pitching coaches and beat writers alike this spring and generate talks of him breaking camp with the team. The Diamondbacks have to make some roster decisions early because of their Australia trip, however, and Bradley isn't likely to make the trip. The Diamondbacks have pitching depth at the moment and don't need Bradley, but you can bet that they will. He may not be in their starting five, but as soon as a starter inevitably goes down, Bradley should be on the short list to take his place.

ETA: Summer 2014

What Could Speed It Up: The Diamondbacks will do their best to hold him off until after the super two deadline in June.

What Could Slow It Down: If all of their starters are healthy and effective, the Diamondbacks will have to make a tough decision somewhere if they want to work Bradley in.

December 04, 2013

The Oakland A's sent outfield prospect Michael Choice and second baseman Chris Bostick to the Texas Rangers on Tuesday afternoon for outfielder Craig Gentry and reliever Josh Lindblom in what turned out to be one of the more minor moves on a crazy Hot Stove day. Despite being overshadowed, however, this is a move that can be looked at in a lot of different ways. Inevitably, however, this deal will be viewed based on the development of Choice.

Choice is a former first round pick, selected 10th overall in 2010. He busted out of the gate in his first full season in 2011, hitting .285/.376/.542 in the California League with 30 home runs. There was some swing-and-miss in his game, but with that kind of power, it's quite acceptable.

Unfortunately for Choice, that power hasn't translated as well in the upper levels of the minors. Whether it's the affect of leaving the California League or facing tougher pitching (or likely a combination of the two), Choice's power production has dropped off significantly over the past two seasons. His isolated slugging percentage, which had been .257 in 2011, dropped to .136 in 2012 and .143 in 2013. He did fracture his hand in July of 2012 and cost him the remainder of his season, but that would only be an excuse for 2013's drop in power.

More likely, however, is that his raw power, which is still very much in tact, simply didn't translate well against better pitching. Luckily for Choice, even without using his power to its full extent, he still has more than most players. Said Nick Faleras of Baseball Prospectus about Choice:

"The bat jabs in and out of the zone quickly, however, and utilizes little in the way of swing plane/pitch plane overlap. The result is a fair amount of swing-and-miss and more frequent soft contact as he’s climbed the developmental ladder to face arms more capable of exploiting his shortcomings via quality off-speed and breaking stuff."

That scouting report explains exactly why Choice has been less productive at the upper levels. The jump to Double-A is the toughest for a hitter because of the improvement in pitcher's breaking pitches. The good news for the Rangers is that, even with his power only playing up to about half of it's capacity, Choice has still remained a productive hitter.

His strikeout rates are high, but not egregiously so, allowing him to still put the ball in play enough to hit for a respectable average. He is a patient hitter at the plate, which leads to some of his strikeouts but also a fair amount of walks. If he makes the proper adjustments to major league pitching, there's no reason he can't be a 25 home run guy and an everyday left fielder.

A note on the trade itself: Bostick is hardly a throw-in and profiles as a potential regular second baseman, albeit one who is still quite far away from the majors having just completed his first year of full-season ball. He ranked eighth on Baseball Prospectus' A's Top-10 just a month ago. He has decent pop at the plate and a solid hit tool that could translate well as he moves up the Rangers ladder, adding to their already crowded stable of up-the-middle prospects.

Gentry will be used properly by the platoon-friendly A's, so he should be productive, but theres a decent chance Choice is the more productive player in 2014. Still, it didn't appear the A's were prepared to hand over a starting job to Choice while the Rangers are, so the trade allows both teams to be more comfortable with their plans, while the A's added a usable bullpen piece, which has been a theme of their off-season.