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Despite the fact that in the UK the retail sales showed an increase of 0.6% against the forecast of 0.4%, while the Core retails sales showed 0.9% against the forecast of 0.5%, the pair GBP/USD lost 50 points yesterday.

In June, the number of housing starts accounted 1.215 million against the expectations of 1.155 million. The building permits showed 1.254 million against the expectations of 1.20 million. The stock market gained 0.54%, and strong quarterly reports of companies played a significant role here.

In June, the Core CPI fell from 2.6% y/y to 2.4% y/y. The total CPI fell from 2.9% y/y to 2.6% y/y vs. the forecast of maintaining unchanged. The retail prices declined from 3.7% y/y to 3.5% y/y, against the expectations of 3.6% y/y. The housing prices showed better than expected, but they also fell: 4.7% y/y versus 5.3% y/y.

Friday's growth in the British pound was due to the information about the UK's preparing concessions to the EU in the Brexit talks this week. Now, if the incoming information from the talks is bright, optimistic, the GBP/USD can continue to grow regardless of even its own macroeconomic data.

Janet Yellen took back her words, said recently, about the impossibility of a crisis "in our lifetime". Yesterday she stated that it is impossible to say with certainty. In June, the Core PPI grew by 0.1%, against the expectation of 0.2%. The PPI added 0.1%, against the forecast of -0.1%.

Yesterday, the pair GBP/USD experienced pressure on the speech of the Bank of England Deputy Chairman about the economy's unwillingness to raise the rate, but then it showed growth with the release of good labor data.

The deputy head of BOE Ben Broadbent believes that the trading conditions for England will worsen with the withdrawal from the EU. The pound lost 33 points. Representatives of the Federal Reserve Leonid Breinard and P. Harker spoke out for caution in the rate hikes, but both believe that it is necessary to begin to reduce the Fed's balance sheet and raise the limit of the national debt.

Macroeconomic data was in line with forecasts, there were also no bright events on the political field. In the US, consumer credit from $12.9 billion to $18.4 billion in May, against the expectation of $12.1 billion.

In May, the manufacturing production fell by 0.2% against the forecast of growth by 0.5%. Industrial production showed -0.1% against the expectations of 0.4%. The construction output fell by 1.2% (forecast + 0.7%). The negative trade balance increased from -10.6 billion pounds to -11.86 billion pounds.

The break of the upper border 1.2974 of the channel, in which GBP/USD spent most of the week, will lead to the activation of Call option’s buyers with the update at 1.3018. If the pair falls in the first half of the day to support 1.2925, we recommend buying Call options only after an unsuccessful attempt to consolidate below.

In the US, the volume of factory orders fell by 0.8% in May. The published minutes showed that members of the committee are ready to continue raising rates even if inflation is below the target level and agreed that the reduction in the Fed's balance sheet will have a limited impact on the markets.

However, in the world political arena, the tension has increased in connection with the last test of North Korea ballistic missile. The most intense day in the market will be Friday - the G-20 summit in Hamburg.

In the UK, the Manufacturing PMI dropped from 56.3 to 54.3. In the US, ISM Manufacturing PMI, as we expected, came out better than expected, the June indicator was 57.8 against the forecast of 55.2 and 54.9 in May.

In the US, the personal income increased by 0.4% against the forecast of 0.3%. The personal spending increased by the expected 0.1%. The Chicago PMI increased from 59.4 to 65.7 in June, which gives a good precondition for the national ISM Manufacturing PMI to exceed the forecast.

The Cable had a real reason for active growth. In May, the number of mortgage approvals remained at the level of the previous month at 65K against the expectation of a decrease to 64K. The net volume of lending to individuals increased from 4.2 billion in April to 5.3 billion pounds in May.

On Wednesday, the head of the Bank of England, Mark Carney, said that the rise in inflation is likely to soon lead to a reduction in incentives, that is, the Bank of England will begin to gradually raise rates. The pound closed the day up by 112 points.

Yesterday, as we expected, the price was moving not under the influence of fundamental data, but under the influence of statements by officials. At first, Mario Draghi had a speech, Mark Carney followed him, then Patrick Harker joined them, and Janet Yellen completed the information day.

The weak data on durable goods orders slowed down the strengthening of the dollar. In May, the durable goods orders fell by 1.1% against the expectation of decreased by 0.6%. The core durable goods orders increased by 0.1% against the forecast of 0.5%.

So it happens, only PMI indexes were weaker in the US. The Services PMI declined from 53.6 to 53.0, against the expectations of growth to 53.9. The Manufacturing PMI declined from 52.7 to 52.1 against the forecast of 53.1. The new home sales showed 610K against the forecast of 599K.

Business media associate the growth of the Cable with the statement of the chief economist of the Bank of England, Andy Haldane, who announced the advisability of partial reduction of monetary incentives in the second half of the year.

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