10 April 2010

Canada's Changing Ethnic Makeup

Canada is an important part of the Anglosphere. Rich in natural resources and human resources, Canada should have a strong 21st century to look forward to. But Canada's population is increasing slowly -- and mainly due to immigration. If not for immigration, Canada's population future would be as bleak as Japan's or Russia's.

The makeup of Canadian visible minorities is distinctly different from that of the US. Most of Canadian visible minority populations come from Asia -- East and South Asia, primarily, with a growing number of Southeast Asians, including Filipinos. Blacks are only 2.5% of the population and Latinos are only 1% of the Canadian population. Canadian native americans make up almost 4% of the population.

The total fertility rate of Canada has declined to around 1.5, well under replacement rate of 2.1 children per woman. As you can see below, Canada, Europe, and Japan have comparable low TFRs.

The conclusion: Canada needs immigrants to avoid a Japan-style population implosion. Canada is unlikely to feel as much of the negative effects of immigration as the US or Europe for at least 2 reasons:

1. Canada is starting with a base of greater than 80% non-minority population.
2. More of Canada's immigrants are coming from East Asia and South Asia, where crime rates are lower than in Mexico and Africa -- two large sources of immigrants to the US and Europe, respectively.
It is hoped that more Canadian immigrants will find a way to assimilate successfully into Canadian society than European immigrants typically have done.

If not for the cold winters in Canada, it would probably see much higher rates of immigration. Even so, Canada is a much stronger immigration draw than Russia, which has comparable winters.

Canada can trade oil, minerals, and timber for all the food it wants from the US and elsewhere. They can also adapt indoor aeroponics and hydroponics technologies -- but they may have to go back to Candu nuclear technology to power and heat it all.

If glaciation sets in, a lot of most northerly settlements will be abandoned.

I don't know how the Chinese vote in Canada, but most of the Chinese here in the US vote for the Democratic party. Letting in immigrants to replace the aborted children of White Canadians might seem like a good idea, but if these immigrants then go on to accelerate the mad rush to socialism then it will just doom Canada faster.

Immigrants need to meet two criteria to be acceptable to a modern society. First, the immigrants have to come from high IQ stock so that when their descendants regress to their groups mean IQ these descendants don't become a burden on society. Second, these replacement immigrants need to have a general outlook that cherishes liberty without any hatred of the West.

As far as I know Koreans are the only major group in East Asia that meets both requirements.

Canada does not need mass immigration. Average immigrant age in Canada is 43. Immigrants have high integration costs, higher unemployment, underemployment, higher welfare, higher medical costs, etc. They are a net drain. Canada does not get many successful business types as immigrants. If you are successful and 40, most of your professional links are in your home country. Difficult to move and keep all of that. Canada has a provincial economy, with few multinational companies. The country is creating large, segregated lower income areas of immigrants. Immigration is no longer working. Maybe if the average age was 24 it might work, i.e. accepting university graduates - preferably ones that attended top international uni's.

Here once you are over 40 your chances of migrating unless you have family here are slim. The labor government here has lost its traditional voter base and so immigration brings in people who will keep it in power