"It's a very simple game. Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose. Sometimes it rains."
(Bull Durham)

Saturday, January 10, 2009

NL Central - 2009

Yah, we know there's still lots of time to alter a lineup or two; it's been that kind of free agent season. But while the Bucs have stood pat, there's been some changes, both by addition and subtraction, in the Central. The 2009 look, YTD:

The Cubbies are loaded again. The starting rotation of Carlos Zambrano, Ted Lilly, Ryan Dempster, Rich Harden, and youngsters Jeff Samardzija or Sean Marshall is the Central's best. And hey, depending on the whims of new owners, the Cubs are still rumored to be in the Jake Peavy sell-off. Adding him would make the rotation something special.

The relief corp could prove interesting. Carlos Marmol has all the goods to close after an awesome 2008 campaign, but is unproven, and the Chitown Nine will have a bullpen by committee to get the ball to him.

Bradley will add some offense and spunk to the laid-back Cubbies, and the bench is OK, although Miles is no DeRosa. The only thing that these guys lacked last year was a spark, and if Bradley can stay in one piece, he's got enough energy for the whole squad.

The rotation is young and sweet. Edinson Volquez, Bronson Arroyo, Aaron Harang, and Johnny Cueto will form the core, with Micah Owings, Daryl Thompson, Homer Bailey, and Ramon Ramirez knocking on the door.

Francisco Cordero leads a bullpen that gained Rhodes and lost Majewski, a pretty fair trade.

Joey Votto, Brandon Phillips, and Jay Bruce lead a lineup that's thin and lacking some muscle after Adam Dunn and Junior were dealt away. Young guns like SS Drew Stubbs and 1B Yonder Alonso are in the pipeline, and could end up in Cincy this year.

The bench is all kids, too. It's a young team and its window is probably 2010, not next season. But GW thinks they can make things interesting this year if they stay healthy and the suits pick up a bat for the middle of the order. Hope the Pirates are paying attention.

The Cards top candidates to close are Chris Perez and Jason Motte, both rookies last year. Perez had seven saves in 11 chances after taking over for Isringhausen. LaRussa likes a veteran hand to end games, and the Redbirds could still ink a finisher after losing out on Brian Fuentes, or if Carpenter can't handle a starter's load, he could become the closer. The rest of the bullpen is young, a transition begun last season.

Any club that has Albert Pujols, Ryan Ludwick, and Ricky Ankiel has to be respected, and this could be the year wunderkind CF Colby Rasmus breaks into the bigs. The bench could use some work. But the Cards have some $20M left from last year's contracts, and have the flexibility to add the depth they need from the market.

The rotation looks like this: Yovani Gallardo, Jeff Suppan, Dave Bush, Manny Parra, and Seth McClung, Carlos Villanueva, or maybe Chris Capuano. Gallardo is a star in the making; the rest are run of the mill.

The bullpen pitched the fewest innings in the MLB last year, but will spring some major leaks without Torres and Shouse on board. Hoffman, if he has any gas left in the tank, will fill one gaping hole at closer, but good luck with the rest of the arms.

The starting eight can mash with the best of them, and unless you shoot a few balls at Prince Fielder (a misnomer if there ever was one), they can pick 'em pretty well, too. Alcides Escobar could be ready to take over at short, moving Hardy to third, and if Fielder is traded, Mat Gamel is sitting in the wings.

Right now, the Brew Crew needs to add at least one arm to both its rotation and pen. They have to completely reconstruct their bench. But we don't think this is the team they'll take to camp. They shed some $25M in salary from 2008, and almost surely have a signing or two left in them during the next few weeks.

The rotation is Roy Oswalt, Wandy Rodriguez, Brandon Backe, Brian Moehler, and hopefully Hampton, Hensley, or Alberto Arias. Ben Sheets cost too much, and they're making loud noises about bringing back Andy Pettitte, but if he already turned down $10M...hey, maybe Oswalt can pull a CC and pitch every fourth day.

The closer is the ever excitable Jose Valverde, and the pen is a quietly dependable group of no-names, led by Doug Brocail and Hawkins.

Not much going on with the starting lineup, and except for Lance Berkman, there's not a whole lot there. The most dependable subs were Loretta and Ausmus, and they're gone, evaporated like every bench in the division.

GW thought the Astros big August was accomplished by smoke and mirrors, and sees them a step below the Cubs, Reds, Cards and Brewers, and a non-factor the wild card race.

GW's early guess at the NL Central:

ChicagoCincinnatiSt. LouisMilwaukeeHouston Pittsburgh

(No, we didn't give up on or forget the Buccos - we'll take a look at where they're at tomorrow)

6 comments:

Anonymous
said...

GW, nice roundup of the upcoming season's preview. Not much improvement amongst the have nots of the division, but the Astros falling behind the Pirates? Sorry, but we're looking through different crystal balls. NOBODY can be worse than the Bucs!

Thanks. Sorry about that last place thing; that was a typo on my first post that I fixed up later in the afternoon; not exactly sure how it was still there at 11 PM. (actually, I forgot about Houston when I first typed the standings in!)The truth is that I can't see the Pirate pitching improving enough to make up for the offense this year. There's some talent coming up, but it sure ain't here yet.

Actually Cincinnati can be worse than the Pirates. Living out here in the Midwest as I do, I get a steady diet of Reds coverage. Trust me: if there is an organization as rudderless and clueless as Cincinnati anywhere in baseball, I haven't seen it.

The Reds have been through something like 3 different owners and 4 different GMs in the past decade alone. Other than Joey Votto this past year, their farm system produced nothing of consequence since Adam Dunn---Ryan Freel doesn't really count, and in any case, it's been years and years since they've gotten any pitching at all from within their own system.

So, I don't get the love you have for the Reds, Ron. Unless Harang rebounds (and he might be hurt) and Homer Bailey stops doing his best impression of a total bust.

I could just be a homer but I think there needs to be a little more love shown to a Milwaukee team that was leading the wildcard even without Sabathia (which has been their only major loss aside from a bullpen which they've padded up for the most part). Baseball is back in Milwaukee.. attendance records were shattered and pre-season ticket sales are at unprecedented numbers. Just like the past couple seasons, the Crew will have a stellar home record. I mean they did beat the World Series champions at Miller Park. Which means you can expect at least a winning season, if not a playoff run if the cards play out right and they don't run any major injuries. Mike Cameron put it best when he told Trevor Hoffman, "This is one of the best run organizations I've ever been with." Don't count the Crew out of being at least second place again. Although the youth of the team led by a clutch Ryan Braun will be looking to overtake the Cubbies and save them the embarrassment of another first round playoff sweep.

We'll see. I think that it's asking a lot of Gallardo to pick up Ben Sheet's and CC Sabathia's workload. But they do have a very competitive team on the field, and could easily trade places with Cincy in the Central.

Talk It Up

If you have any thoughts to share or an idea for a future post, we're all ears. Give us a shout atThe Green Weenie. And by all means, let your voice be heard and leave a comment. We enjoy the chatter.

One rule: if you want to leave a relevant link, or a link to your site, that's fine with us; the more the merrier. But if you're trying to sell stuff or are leaving flaming posts, we zap it, no questions asked.