The third largest holding in the ETF, Deere & Co. (NYSE: DE), reports earnings this morning before the opening bell. The stock makes up 7.3 percent of the ETF and will set the stage for how the sector and the ETF move today.

Even though the global economy is not in robust mode, DE has been able to continue its uptrend as it trades a dollar below a new high. Not only will DE dictate the action of MOO today, it will also give investors a good indication of the economy in developed and emerging markets around the world.

One of the top performing sectors of 2014 has run into some issues over the last week. Yesterday broke a three-session losing streak that had shaved over three percent off the ETF just days after hitting a new all-time high.

As money has been coming out of the high-flying tech stocks the last few months, money has been moving into the more stable sectors such as utilities. Now that the tech stocks are starting a comeback the sector rotation is back on and utilities have been struggling.

Investors need to watch the 50-day moving average, which is currently $46.61. The low of yesterday was $41.79 and XLU finished the session at $41.97.

A drop in the value of the Euro and the Japanese Yen helped push the U.S. Dollar Index to the highest level in over one month yesterday. This comes after hitting the lowest level in over two years just last week.

The rally in the greenback could be a bounce from a low or it could be the start of a new longer-term uptrend. A lot depends on the economic numbers not only in the U.S., but also Europe. This week saw Germany’s economic numbers begin to weaken and the anticipation that the ECB may implement more stimulus is growing. More stimulus would hurt the Euro and help boost the U.S. Dollar.

The unrest in the Ukraine has been muted for a few days after reports that Russia was looking to take over Eastern parts of the country. Regardless of the news in the region, investors have been viewing Russia as a buying opportunity. In the last two weeks RSX is up 12 percent, and yesterday the ETF closed at the best level in over two months.

Longer-term, the ETF remains in a downtrend that began in 2011, but the action since the end of February is becoming constructive as investors are considering the low valuations and ignoring the current political unrest.