This irritates me every time: how can they say "with 5% reporting, we can call it for __!" Really? 5%? I'm no statistician, but that seems amazingly counterintuitive. Well, back to grading papers for me.

From the primary CNN article about the election, currently on the website:
"Few predict that the Democrats are in danger of losing their control of either the House or the Senate, but all eyes will be on nearly a dozen close Senate races that are key to whether the Democrats get 60 seats in the Senate."

they're calling it at what, 8;15? and the polls closed at 8? i understand if they're calling it a bit early, but to suggest that they're dissuading people from going out is kinda absurd given that they couldn't vote at that point.

This irritates me every time: how can they say "with 5% reporting, we can call it for __!" Really? 5%? I'm no statistician, but that seems amazingly counterintuitive. Well, back to grading papers for me.

It blew my mind slightly when they called South Carolina for McCain when precincts reporting showed Obama 55% to Mcain 45% but with 1% reporting.

It made sense in a second, but it illustrates a point. CNN at least seems trying to be more careful about what they're calling this election, however, their projections are based somewhat on exist polling and someone on actual reporting. If the exit polling is showing McCain landslide in a state, and the 1% reporting shows it being close, but those are the most liberal districts in the state, then they usually feel safe calling it.

2. I think the point on calling things as soon as polls close is not to dissuade voters from voting in those states but in other states further west where polls are still open. The theory being "why should I vote in CO/NV/NM/Wherever? The election is already over according to NBC/CNN/whoever." It's a dangerous thing to do.

Couldn't calling the race early also logically have the effect of dissuading Obama supporters from voting?

That is logical. But people aren't logical. Past experience shows people on the "losing" side are much more likely to skip voting altogether. Democrats in California were furious with Carter for conceding before all the polls closed.

People emotionally like being on the "winning side". Democrats will want to say "I was part of bringing the change" even if their personal vote didn't count for much. In other words, they have an incentive to vote even if the election is called.

Republicans don't have anything to gain from voting in a lost cause. I wonder how many people only come to vote for president, however: surely in states where the races are close, Republicans have a strong incentive to come in and vote for their candidates in the State elections?

Even if a McCain supporter is convinced Obama will win, the only rational thing to do is to vote no matter what -- to possibly tilt *your* state to deny Obama an electoral 'landslide', and if that fail, keep an Obama lead in the popular vote small as possible in order to dent claims of a "mandate".
All those come in to play when he starts trying to ram his crap thru Congress, trying to marginalize any opposition.

No matter how you shake it, there's a pretty significant chance of 90%+ of districts in the east coast states reporting by the time polls close in California.

This is true. What makes it all very irritating to Republicans is the fact they called PA and Ohio before any precincts at all had reported. Especially after being wrong about Florida in 2000 and being so far off on exit polling in 2004. This isn't just incompetence.

And even if they turn out to be right, it has a big effect on the downticket races. Whether the Senate goes enough Democrat for straight party-line closure votes is a very big deal.

This is true. What makes it all very irritating to Republicans is the fact they called PA and Ohio before any precincts at all had reported.

and most places have also called North Dakota, Wyoming, and Oklahima for McCain.

They have their "systems" and I'll readily concede their systems can be flawed, but I see very little evidence for underlying partisan animus in their systems for predicting what states go where. I mean, yeah, it's statistically possible that the first 30% of precincts to vote could go 60-40 one way, and the remaining 70% go 60-40 the other, but a shift of that magnitude just isn't likely except in accordance with already known demographic patterns.

They've been calling states early for a long time, is there any evidence that this affects the Western states? I know they screwed up in 2000, but that just means to me they should do a better job, not stop calling races.

I mean, yeah, it's statistically possible that the first 30% of precincts to vote could go 60-40 one way, and the remaining 70% go 60-40 the other, but a shift of that magnitude just isn't likely except in accordance with already known demographic patterns.

Did you read my post? 0% of precincts reporting. In other words, they were calling states based on no actual votes whatsoever.

Did you read my post? 0% of precincts reporting. In other words, they were calling states based on no actual votes whatsoever.

I admit I'm watching fox and CNN, not NBC, but the only one I've seen them call that early was South Carolina for McCain.

There's an important counter motive here too. What do networks really gain by making inaccurate predictions? An infinitesmal chance of affecting somthing in a different time zone and if they're forced to recall a prediction their political team loses an obscene amount of credibility.

I mean people are still talking about Florida being Miscalled in 2000 when exit polling comes up.

Did you read my post? 0% of precincts reporting. In other words, they were calling states based on no actual votes whatsoever.

From what I've read, the networks look at the pre-election polling and the exit polls and if they're consistent and the lead is big enough (> 10% ?) they'll call the state. I was a little surprised they called Penn. so early, but some networks like CNN waited about an hour.

I get annoyed when I see judge elections where nearly every candidate is a prosecutor bragging about how tough he is on criminal defendants. One of them even brags about staring down armed gang leaders. They all sound like they've been running for judge roughly since the day they signed up for the LSAT.

The other thing that annoys me is the multitude of ballot propositions authorizing the state to issue bonds (i.e. borrow money) for this or that program. I voted "no" on all of them, regardless of the program.

the other thing that annoys me is the multitude of ballot propositions authorizing the state to issue bonds (i.e. borrow money) for this or that program. I voted "no" on all of them, regardless of the program.

couldn't agree more. in calif it seemed to be a particularly bad year for bond props.

Congratulations to President Elect Barack Hussein Obama! Thanks to Senator McCain. And special thanks to President George W. Bush. This was the most interesting presidential election of my life so far.

Congratulations to President Elect Barack Hussein Obama! Thanks to Senator McCain. Johnathan Sidney McCain III And special thanks to President George W. Bush. This was the most interesting presidential election of my life so far.

Anyone else miss "The Spin Room?" It was a 2 man show (Tucker Carlson and Bill Press) that ran around the time of the 2000 election. Political commentary from both sides but with a sense of humor instead of spluttering outrage. We could use a show like that right now.

Nope I would never want to abolish the EC. Never. I hope Obama shows some good sense and does not let the gun grabbers get to him and does not abolish the tax deduction for 401K plans and does not nationalize or socialize my business. Medicine. I do not know what I will do. If we get Medicare for all we will have to close our 7 physician Family Practice Clinic. We barely made our payroll last month. Can NOT keep the door open with Medicare and Medicaid payments. Sigh. I guess I will have to stop seeing the average Joe and take care of the Rich only. I guess that is what some people want. Sorry rural citizens your health care is going to be free but no one will be there to provide the care. Maybe they will get you a PA .gov employee to care for you. Good Luck. Oh the hospital will close also without any physicians. Too bad cause we have a great hospital for a small town.

But the EC concentrates power in the smaller states at the expense of residents of larger ones. A vote in Wyoming has more weight than one in NY. By and large it is an effective way to level the playing field among the states It's sort of an affirmative action program for small states.

And Republicans favor Federalism only insofar as it furthers their agenda. States that want to pass medical marijuana laws get no quarter from the GOP Federalism ideologues.

But the EC concentrates power in the smaller states at the expense of residents of larger ones. A vote in Wyoming has more weight than one in NY. By and large it is an effective way to level the playing field among the states It's sort of an affirmative action program for small states.

And Republicans favor Federalism only insofar as it furthers their agenda. States that want to pass medical marijuana laws get no quarter from the GOP Federalism ideologues.

Agreed on medical marijuana, but my point was Republicans would tend more toward support for the EC than would Democrats, not that Republicans were entirely consistent Federalists.

I think if the EC system were abolished, the smaller states would simply cease to matter during a Presidential campaign, and I can't see how that would be good at all.

And Republicans favor Federalism only insofar as it furthers their agenda. States that want to pass medical marijuana laws get no quarter from the GOP Federalism ideologues.

This is not true for the party in general, though it does seem true for elected officials. Of course, one of the reasons Republicans are having trouble getting elected is they aren't in touch with the base on some key issues (like small government).

CSM----blame that one on the damn liberal interpretation of the Commerce clause. You know the one liberals love. It is that liberal reading that gives .gov the power you love so suck it up and quit griping. If the Feds can regulate my firearms b/c of the commerce clause your dope can be regulated also. Not that I a Conservative want either regulated. Can not have your cake and eat it too.

"I think if the EC system were abolished, the smaller states would simply cease to matter during a Presidential campaign, and I can't see how that would be good at all."

Absolutely. Candidates would campaign in LA, Chicago and NYC. Nothing else would matter.

I do agree that GOPers favor the EC more than Dems, but I think most Dems favor it, just not as vehemently as Repubs. I, for one, have been on the fence about this in the past and am firmly in the Pro-EC column.

The other thing that annoys me is the multitude of ballot propositions authorizing the state to issue bonds (i.e. borrow money) for this or that program. I voted "no" on all of them, regardless of the program.

I'm with you. Every year I request a master lever so I can just vote no on all the ballot issues en masse.

The vote from New Mexico repudiates the McCain/Republican strategy for capturing the Hispanic vote. Even though McCain went all out for amnesty, he got soundly rejected by the Hispanics. The Republicans will never outbid the Democrats in offering goodies to the illegal aliens and the underclass. But they don't understand that, and cling to false notion that somehow the Hispanics will become just like their base. As a result, they consistently mis-allocate their resources, and turn off people who might vote for them to chase the Will-O-Wisp. The clock is running out and in another 20 years the US will become a one party state like Mexico under the Partido Revolucionario Institucional (PRI). They don't know how to appeal to people prone to magical thinking.

Jim, just wanted to say thanks to you and the rest of the VC'ers for putting up with all the crap you guys have taken from both sides.
Whether I agree or disagree, I find nearly all of the posts too interesting not to read.

"The Republicans will never outbid the Democrats in offering goodies to the illegal aliens and the underclass."

And, conversely, the Democrats will never outbid the GOP in offering goodies to religious fundamentalists and the wealthiest 0.1% of the electorate.

The GOP didn't need to hand goodies to immigrants. All they needed to do was come up with a rational solution to a long-standing problem that passed the point of no return a long time ago without portraying a huge swath of the population as undesirable criminals, whether they were illegal or not. The GOP never tried to understand what they were dealing with and probably never will get it. McCain, to his credit, tried to be pragmatic about it and was violently swatted down. Now the GOP has probably lost Hispanics for a long, long time.

"The best thing that can come out of this is that the GOP does a big ol' purge and restores itself to sanity and principle. Too much to hope for?"

No. The Democrats will screw this up, guaranteed, just as the GOP screwed up their tenure at the helm. One party rule never works.

This is true. What makes it all very irritating to Republicans is the fact they called PA and Ohio before any precincts at all had reported. Especially after being wrong about Florida in 2000 and being so far off on exit polling in 2004. This isn't just incompetence.

I've been looking at the exit polls on the CNN website, which it posts just after the polls close. The media have been instacalling only in the case of very large spreads, as with the 15-point spread in the PA exits.

Any chance Bob Dole will finally honor his 1996 promise (on giving up his Senate seat) to either go to the White House or back home to Russell, Kansas? Now he can pop viagras and chase Liddy around the wheatfields till the cows come home.

Yes, I am *so* happy to have been wrong about predicting a McCain victory. I'm truly thrilled that Obama has won and this has renewed my hope, trust, and belief in America and my fellow homo sapiens. Great day not just for America, but for the world.

Anyone care to make predictions about the 2012 Republican nomination? What do you think of Palin's chances?

Good if Ted Stevens wins tonight, then resigns. Palin should then resign as Governor and run for the seat. If she wins (which shouldn't be a problem), then she gains the necessary national experience and exposure. Staying in Alaska is not an option--too far away.

Anyone care to make predictions about the 2012 Republican nomination? What do you think of Palin's chancePalin is out. She was half of a losing ticket, and the experience issue will still be looming (with no countershot against the now-incumbent Obama). And she was a dark horse in the first place.

McCain is also out.

Expect a governor. Maybe Romney, maybe some other guy who lost in the primary. For new faces, I'd look at Mitch Daniels, M. Jodi Rell, and maybe Bobby Jindal if they want Palin v. 2.0.

Congratulations to President Obama. And, BTW, now that the country has demonstrated that there is not a single opportunity foreclosed to a qualified African-American, isn't that indisputable proof that race-based preferences are no longer "necessary to eliminate the vestiges of discrimination", and therefore unconstitutional under the 14th Amendment? Time to tee up Grutter v. Bolinger, Second Act.

McCain just gave a gracious and moving speech befitting a great man. I have no doubt he was sincere about doing anything he can to help Obama bring the country together. I only hope the extremists in his own party will let him, as I hope the extremists on the other side won't impede the new President.

DiverDan, you say it more, umm, provocatively than I would, but I see the point.

White voters supported Obama in slightly higher percentages than they supported Kerry, and Kerry was (after all) pretty much a white Obama in terms of policy positions and voting record.

I always think of the presidential race, the interviews, the debates, the whole thing, as the world's longest job interview. And when all was said and done, Americans were more than happy to give the African American guy the job.

because (entering leftist mode) the republicans keep to electorate ignorant of the real problems in the world (racism, sexism, heterosexism, the patriarchy, capitalism, imperialism, the military industrial complex, corporate power, creeping fascism, etc....) and get them to "vote against their interests"

that's the meme... "voting against their interests".

fwiw, i don't think it's a good thing to vote based on your interests, but instead to vote on your principles.

if i only voted in my interests, i'd have to find a candidate who intends to give massive govt. handouts to bald 40+ surfer cops from WA state.

This election has worked out best for the country, thank god it wasnt close either way. A historic day and a good day to be an American, even if you didn't support the winner.

It just occurs to me that now those of us on the other side of the divide are rather beholden to Obama to govern justly and (hopefully) moderately. I think that sentiment is going to occur to many of us. Those of us who have doubted Obama have to hope we have been very wrong.

If a presidential election can do that, might I suggest there's something wrong with you?

Suggest away, but if that's so, since I'm 65, it's probably too late to fix it. But it wasn't just another presidential election to me, you see, and your comments can't spoil tonight for me, for my African-American partner of 19 years, for my neighbors here in South Los Angeles or for the millions of Americans who share my joy.

I worked in the civil rights movement in the Sixties, I went to Watts as a poverty lawyer right out of law school, and I've worked for racial equality for decades. A long way to go yet, but this is definitely a huge step forward. I am filled with hope and love for my country.

So now we've elected a socialist that happens to be black. You can't come much farther from the Constitution and the Founding Fathers. Wasn't it Franklin that said "You have a Republic, if you can keep it"? Well obviously over half the electorate isn't interested in keeping it any more—they believe the government exists to take care of them, not to stay out of their way while they pursue happiness and success. I've been a right wing idealogue (sp?) for about 25 years now, and served 20 in the USAF, 8 of that under Clinton—and Obama is my president. Let's watch and see what happens as he and the Congress "transform America"—it will be interesting to see what the taking half of the electorate does when they find out that all those gifts have long strings attached. Good morning, Comrade!!!

"Yeah, and the "Ministry of Truth" actually told the truth!! And hope is not a course of action--but you'll find that out soon enough."

And despair is?

So he's lying about his take on American Ideals why? Because equality and fraternity sound too French and he's afraid to lose the Penn Dutch vote? Oh yeah, he already won the whole stinkin election, I forgot.

1) Maxine Waters for Dept of Education. (Maybe she can find one there.)

2) Yvonne Brathwaite Burke for Dept of Health and Human Services. (When Martin Luther King Jr. Hospital in Los Angeles was threatened to be closed for killing patients due to poor care, she said "That hospital will only be closed overy my dead body." The hospital is closed, but she is still alive.)

3) Bill Ayers for Homeland Security. (Obviously!)

Since this is a Law Prof blog, who do you like for AG and Justice? Any thoughts about Treasury?

Come on, folks, there are over 7,000 positions in the Plum Book that our new leader must fill!

You apparently think you're the man. You delude yourself. I hate to burst your delusion, but Obama is the man, and he definitely doesn't get me down. No, he fires me up and gets me ready to go. I hope you don't consume yourself with bitterness over the next few years.

But we just established that resumes and experience don't matter when it comes to our president. We just have to like the candidate.

McCain showed his character last night by turning the page on the election and committing Obama his support. Country first. You're someone I'd have expected to rise to that challenge with something more constructive than this.