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This entry was posted on Monday, June 27th, 2011 at 5:16 pm and is filed under NZ Politics.
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Good analysis DPF. Tricky turning that data into an interesting story but you did it well. That margin chart speaks volumes.

No it didn’t work, did it.

Awwwwwwwwwwwww.

This is tewwible.

Firstly Phil keeps making a clown out of himself and thus they don’t have a chance cause evewyone hates him and would really pwefer Twev. Now their vewy machinewy is bweaking down and falling awound their ears. This is weally weally sad.

I do not know why the main stream media print your articles. You are not an independent commentator. Whenever you say something about the Labour Party you invariably get it wrong and take the opportunity to try and spin a story.

Your comment that “Labour’s vaunted turnout machine in West Auckland failed” falls into this category and displays either a complete lack of understanding of what sort of campaign was run or a callous attempt to spin. Obviously you are not privy to what was planned and why the media should rely on you commenting on something that you know nothing about is beyond me.

Out west what was a Hone majority by over two to one in 2008 was converted to a narrow Kelvin majority last Saturday. If this result had been duplicated throughout the electorate Kelvin would be the MP for TTT now.

Just a bit of advice, the last time I checked the candidate with the most votes won. This was achieved for Kelvin last weekend by Labour.

[DPF: West Auckland had a smaller share of the vote in TTT than in 2008. You might not like that fact as you were probably in charge of the get out the vote. You got less votes for Kelvin in West Auckland than in 2008 despite having the entire Labour machine to work in one electorate]

To claim, as some have, that DPF has put a bias in his statistics and graphs is a clear sign of immaturity.
The figures and graphs are illuminating.
Openly presented data speaks truthfully. The result may not always please, but that’s life.
Well done David!

David Farrar is a centre-right blogger affiliated with the National Party

is ambiguous? People know who DPF is, they know where his political sympathies lie, and newspaper editors obviously reckon he writes well, which is why they engage him. Perhaps you should be taking lessons from DPF, rather than slagging him off

DPF: West Auckland had a smaller share of the vote in TTT than in 2008.

So did Auckland and the North Shore. The best performing parts of the electorate had a smaller turnout.

You might not like that fact as you were probably in charge of the get out the vote.

Actually I was not. There are way more experienced people than me. Throughout the electorate turnout was down. This is what happens in a by election. And Labour won the vote out west. Want to review your opinion or do you prefer to stick to the spin? I repeat if the West Auckland result occurred throughout the electorate Kelvin would be the MP.

I do not know why the main stream media print your articles. You are not an independent commentator. Whenever you say something about the Labour Party you invariably get it wrong and take the opportunity to try and spin a story.

Perhaps Micky could lash out and say the same things about, say left-wing commentators, like Chris Trotter, who for example dissed Labour and said:

“Labour, too, called every activist to the party’s colours. Morale soared – and not without reason. In a straightforward get-out-the-vote effort, Labour has few rivals.

Or, perhaps, for the sake of accuracy, that should be, in general seats Labour has few rivals. Quite what the disaffected Maori electors of Te Tai Tokerau made of Labour’s middle-class Pakeha activists is anyone’s guess”.

So in conclusion, doesn’t matter if you’re Right, Left, Centre, or from Mars, but point out the truth about Labour and their smug “we know what’s best for you” pakeha activist mindset, and Micky-da-mouse comes a-spinning!

Yes, can spot the difference Micky, but two things: one, these are different times (eg Hone standing for his own party & sell/spin HIS own message (not MP’s like in 2008) and Labour bore the fruits of MP and Mana splitting the Maori vote & etc) and two, well stats are interesting things because one can use them (and ignore other aspects of stats) for their own ends. For example, fewer people voted in this by-election than in 2008.

Anyway good for Kelvin for winning the West Auckland share of the votes.

However I wouldn’t be spinning that as meaning a hell of a lot, not unless Kelvin & his pakeha activists can take on Hone on his own turf and win the vote in the other areas etc.

Finally, perhaps I’ve been a bit too harsh on your spin. I’ve now stocked up on my popcorn and coke and am ready to sit back and enjoy the free entertainment – I’d be happy to hear your spin on other subjects such as how Labour will win the 2011 election etc, please entertain me! If it helps, I’m cheap

Perhaps you’d be more comfortable on the GD thread posting jokes. You don’t seem to have much to offer here. You should read my posts on ‘Hone Wins’ – perhaps you’d learn something. Or perhaps not, you seem to struggle with comprehension.

But we did win the second half.
But at least I ran a personal best
But I got a couple of sets off him
But it was nil all until the penalty shoot out
But we were the only team not to get beaten
But if only Labour weren’t so fucked

West Auckland was great. Labour won the vote there.

That statement is just so incredibly sad, it really is, it so devastatingly delusional that you would wonder about the state of things in Greg’s house

Good comment. By-election result was probably as good as Labour could realistically expect, and puts them in a good place for the other Maori seats come November if Mana and Maori can’t reach an accommodation.

DPF did a good job of presenting the figure in his column. If you click on the link in the first sentence, it will take you to the column on Stuff. There are charts and everything.

Yes cheers mike and I had read DPF’s article and looked at the charts and understood them after awhile (I had to turn my head to the side for a bit but after I cleared the blockage it was all go!)…

But nevertheless mike your point was somehow nowhere to be found. It was like a lost lamb on a big prairie with nowhere to go and nothing to see. It was all very sad but we managed to get over it after awhile…

My point is mike, your point, about DPF’s data, is a bit like that – meandering down a garden path to nothing and nowhere, with no map, at night time.

Your guys lost, you won nothing, you get beaten – by what is basically an independent .

Winning the vote is important, ….., yes it is Greg you should have realized that on Saturday night, because you did’nt win the vote. Hone Harawiri did. Personally I am rapt because it shows just how gone Labour are. Hone can be dealt with, he’ll have his 15 minutes and implode , but labour dear oh dear…………

Winning some booths does not matter if you come second.

And I know that I never agree with you on anything but do you need that MM little shit throwing his 5 bob’s worth in,? I believe he is amplifying the pauscity of your comments

@ Reid.
“OK so this comes down to whether we think Liarbore got a good turnout in particular in West Auckland since that’s where it reckons it’s pretty fucking shit hot.

Is that right?”

Yes, shit hot alright!

According to Labour’s West Auckland pakeha activists, they are shit hot and their Kelvin is “da man”!

Can’t wait to see Labour’s West Auckland pakeha activists get into their cars, venture north into Hone territory and take on his activist “bros”! We’ll soon see who is really shit hot and da man!

Perhaps if the Police setup some roadside cameras, they could make a killing as the wounded pride of West Auckland pakea activists high tail the hell outta there at speed!

The only other option, to prevent this happening for real come November …. would be for the NZ Labour Party to campaign against the Maori Seats, eh? Must be a matter of time before this happens, eh! Can’t have them “bros” forming their own MP and Mana Parties and leaving the Labour fold! Why, they don’t know what’s good for them, whereas Labour does of course!

For my money, Hone will keep his seat in November, but it’s hard to see Mana snaring enough party votes to drag any of his mob in to keep him company. As I said above, the by-election result does point to interesting development for the Maori seats in the general election.

Just a bit of advice, the last time I checked the candidate with the most votes won.

And the guy with the most votes was Hone.
So your Labour guy lost.

West Auckland was great. Labour won the vote there.

But the electorate is more than just West Auckland, so Labour did not win the vote overall.
So your Labour guy lost.

I repeat if the West Auckland result occurred throughout the electorate Kelvin would be the MP.

But it was not repeated across the electorate.
So your Labour guy lost.

The reason I’m repeating the message is that Mickey just does not seem to understand that … he lost.

Constant repetition of treatment can sometimes pull the patient out of this mental state.

Admittedly this did not happen with the last such extreme case recorded – that of Squealer – but he had great powers of persuasion, eloquence and a charismatic intellect, and he never lost power. So I think there is considerable hope for Mickey.

In the case of the by-election, I actually wanted Kelvin Davis to win. I hated the idea that a racist MOFO such as Hone would not only win the by-election but by doing so would become eligible for Party funding in the lead up to the GE. And so it transpired.

But what I didn’t expect, was the news that Hone has now handed his proxy vote to the Greens because he’s opted to campaign full time across NZ from now until November. Its a further insult to all taxpayers (and voters).

But it seemed to me that the Labour machine failed to fire in TTT. Davis came across as a reasonable person, but as soon as Hone was seen on TV saying that “a vote for Hone will give you Hone + Kelvin”, I knew he’d out-thought the Labour strategists.

So Hone won. He’s now elected as MP by the voters in TTT and I feel this’ll be a nasty sideshow to the GE that the country doesn’t need.

Actually Labour did win and they won big. In these fertile times for Hone’s message they wound back Hone’s vote immeasurably.

To the extent one doesn’t want a national racist player on the scene, this is good. To the extent it’s further evidence Labour has lost its roots and hello if you want to find out where, look at urbanisation and the disconnect between Labour’s real base, it’s bad.

The last thing our poorly resourced people in this land needs is more fighting over who get’s the credit for giving them what they need: education, self-discipline and self-respect.

Yet that’s precisely what they’ve all just got themselves.

So it’s Liarbore, Mana and MP fighting over who represents you best eh?

So you RWNJs are celebrating because Kelvin, the Labour Party candidate, did not win but Hone, the far left wing anti capitalism feck John Key and Don Brash candidate did and NACT should be pleased.

Do you really mean this?

Micky, well from memory a few weeks ago when Hone announced that he was thinking about resigning and forcing a by-election, many Kiwiblogger’s (or RWNJ’s as you call them) here actually called for Labour (and the MP) to stand a candidate (Kelvin) against Hone. By coincidence (or not) a few days later Labour announced they would indeed, stand a candidate. So I don’t think many Kiwiblogger’s (or RWNJ’s as you call them) were wishing for Hone to win (granted not everyone here thinks the same or would agree etc).

However RightNow at 9.55 (and others) sums it up the situation well.

The Labour Machine could not roll an independant, Hone, and his band of activist agitators. Shheeeeeshhh, Labour deserve all the shit they get and frankly are so pathetic they are sulling the mantle of being the major “Opposition Party”. Perhaps it’s time for Labour to die away like the Dinosaurs and let the Greens and the Mana Party take over the mantle.

Whilst I don’t have much time for the Greens and Mana, at least they are consistent and one knows what they stand for (whether one agrees or not). Labour on the other hand flip-flop depending on whether they are the Govt or in Opposition. Eg when Labour’s in Govt, it’s ok to sell assets (or have part-sell/majority shareholding in Air NZ), but when Labour are in Opposition, this is not ok. And so on.

Me, I’m a pragmatist. Now that Mana have won, let’s see how they pan out over the next few months and let’s see what (if any) accomodation can be reached with the Maori Party. After all, the poor and downtrodden need a voice, that’s democracy. The Mana Party may not be my favourite party, but hell, someone needs to speak for the poor, and Labour, the supposed party of the working class and poor, have abandoned these ideals some 30-40 years ago as the middle-class academics etc took over the party. Feck Labour, they are so irrelevant now (as the polls indicate) and as the wider population has caught on. Once more and more Maori and Pacific Islander’s break their Labour bonds and vote MP, Mana, National even ffs, well Labour will slip further into irrelevancy, where they belong.

And before you accuse me of being a RWNJ, I’ve said many a time in the past, I used to vote for these Labour turkeys. Thank goodness I “grew up” and saw the light! Now what’s your excuse?

mickeysavage 6:39 pm. DPF is totally upfront about his political stance. That’s a whole lot more than can be said for a lot of ‘journalists’ in the steam powered media. They’re socialists first, and everything else second. For them, the best story is the one that best serves the cause.

Labour’s interpretation of the Game.
Its not winning that matters but how you play the game.
Well that’s what they have taught our kids for 9 long fucking years. Unfortunately they also indoctrinated the Nats with the same shit. And the All Blacks and Silver Ferns and Black Caps.

A party that declares support for a form of socialism that will provide the Maori race with a “system of economic security, social welfare programs for workers, a just wage, honour for workers’ importance to the nation, and protection from capitalist exploitation. “
(Google that….)
This party comprises of a group that defines itself by race and targets the Pakeha as the source of socio-cultural and economic discord. A group with members that, in the past, have not shunned intimidation and violence, with a strong ‘charismatic’ leader.

Now , this reminds me of something.

And we are worried about Kyle Chapman and a small group of losers who like to stomp around in jackboots.
5611 votes!

But hey, Labour led the way for decades getting hundreds of thousands of people to vote for similar socialism & welfare dependency (later on, they give us WFF’s etc), in their later life similarly targeted pakeha (especially white, family orientated males as the source of socio-cultural discord etc).

I’m not suprised then other Party’s come (and go) also think the answer is more money (and tax the “rich” more to pay more, but let’s stifle economic development at the same time etc). Be that the Greens or Mana, as the latest lot (or the Alliance beforehand) etc.

Elaycee, 10:34pm:
A “I hated the idea that a racist MOFO such as Hone would not only win the by-election but by doing so would become eligible for Party funding in the lead up to the GE. And so it transpired.”

1. the Mana Party was formed too late to be eligible for TV airtime for the GE.
2. from the time he resigned from Parliament, effectively 20 May, until the date of the official results of the by-election, 6 July, HH won’t have any Parliamentary salary, or have been eligible to claim any of his legendary expenses. That’s quite a hit for him personally, especially the latter. Sad, eh?

B “But what I didn’t expect, was the news that Hone has now handed his proxy vote to the Greens because he’s opted to campaign full time across NZ from now until November. Its a further insult to all taxpayers (and voters).”

That’s the great thing about HH. He can’t help putting his foot in it, displaying his ineptitude, his hypocrisy. Whether it’s missing the crucial vote on Seabed and Foreshore after resigning from the Maori Party because of it, the racist email after the Paris shindig, the “don’t date Pakeha” crap when he’s part Pakeha, it just goes on and on. A classic case of the gift that keeps on giving.

@Spiritfree says: “2. from the time he resigned from Parliament, effectively 20 May, until the date of the official results of the by-election, 6 July, HH won’t have any Parliamentary salary, or have been eligible to claim any of his legendary expenses. That’s quite a hit for him personally, especially the latter… ”

But Hone will now receive a salary as the leader of a Party within Parliament – together with the additional funding that goes with the office of leader. IMO, this line of funding is the primary reason he called the by-election in the first place.

‘Under current rules Harawira would see his salary rise from $134,800 to $148,500 if he came back as a leader, though he would lose about $20,000 in salary during the by-election campaign. But a party leader also receives an annual allocation of $100,000 (excluding GST) plus $64,320 for each member of the caucus who is not a minister. Another $22,000 is allocated to each MP to cover research and the party’s whips office. Under the rules, Harawira would qualify for about six months’ of the leader’s allocation, giving him a boost of at least $50,000′.

I wonder if the Labour machine had the effect in West Auckland of discouraging people who would’ve otherwise voted for Hone Harawira to not vote at all?

I actually think the majority of the swing against Hone had little to do with Labour however. Firstly, the Maori Party of course stood against Hone, and the Maori Party brand retained just under 9% of their vote from last time-9% that probably went to Hone in 2008.

Secondly, in 2008 the party vote for the National Party in Te Tai Tokerau was around 9.5% of the total. Those who gave their party vote to National split their party vote in the following manner:

Kelvin Davis got less than 8% of the electorate vote from National Party supporters in Te Tai Tokerau in 2008. However with an endorsement of Kelvin from John Key, I reckon that Kelvin Davis would probably have got the overwhelming majority of National Party support in the by-election.

With such a low turnout Hone cannot claim to have a mandate because the undecided voter was the largest group. Mana may have won in the North where Hone’s support is at it’s strongest, but whether that can be translated to the General Election remains to be seen.
Labour will be greatly encouraged by the result.