Fed Sitting On Fence Hurts Dollar

Despite being more upbeat than last months message, yesterday’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) announcement has failed to lift the mighty dollar. The Fed’s statement is considered evenly balanced. They acknowledged the strengthening labor market and deemed the “near-term risks to the economic outlook as diminished,” but on the other hand, maintained that “inflation measures remain low and expectations for pickup are little changed.” Net result – Fed funds futures have actually tilted in favor of lower rates. December contract have fallen -5pts and are now below +50% probability of a +25bp hike. ... (full story)