This weekend was an inflection point in the Republican presidential race — a moment in which some significant part of the GOP establishment came out of denial and realized Donald Trump might well become their party's nominee.

"The Republican establishment, for the first time, is saying, off the record, this guy can win," noted Joe Scarborough on MSNBC Monday morning. "I've heard that from everybody. I don't hear anybody saying he can't win the nomination anymore."

That doesn't mean Republicans have made their peace with a Trump victory. On the contrary — some are preparing to do whatever it takes to bring him down. Which could lead to an extraordinary scenario in which GOP stalwarts go to war to destroy their own party's likely nominee.

Over the weekend I talked to a leading conservative who opposes Trump. I asked what would happen if January comes and Trump is still dominating the race. Would he and other conservatives make their peace with Trump's candidacy, or would there be massive resistance?

"Massive resistance," was the answer. "He's not a conservative."

Insiders have watched as Trump defied what many believed were immutable laws of the political universe. First they thought Trump wouldn't run. Then they thought voters wouldn't take a reality-TV star seriously. Then they thought gaffes would kill Trump as they had other candidates. None of that turned out as expected.

But there is one belief Trump has not yet tested, and that is the political insiders' unshakeable faith that negative ads work.

"I don't think Trump can withstand 10,000 points of smart negative in Iowa and New Hampshire," says one veteran Republican strategist who is not affiliated with any campaign. "It would force him to spend money. That's when this starts to get real for him." ("Points" refers to gross ratings points, a way of measuring TV ad buys; 10,000 points would be a really big buy, meaning the average viewer would see an anti-Trump ad many, many times.)

There is no central anti-Trump conspiracy. But one group that would like to play a leading role in taking him down is the Club for Growth. In September, the Club ran two ads against Trump in Iowa — 2,000 points — with one arguing that Trump is not a true conservative and the other hitting Trump for his support of the Supreme Court'sKelodecision on eminent domain.

"We primed the pump with our ads in Iowa," says Club president David McIntosh. "We did some polling afterward. The ads flipped Trump from first to second place among caucus-goers and put a dent in his approval rating."

McIntosh is looking for donors to fund an anti-Trump campaign that would hit hard in the month before voting begins. It might be a Club for Growth production, or it might be a combination of efforts. "There is no other group that has decided to do it," says McIntosh. "There are a large number of donors and political activists who want to do it."

The triggers for the anti-Trump onslaught would likely be: 1) if next month arrives with Trump still in the lead, and 2) if Trump begins airing his own ads. "Once that starts, you'll see a lot of people saying we've waited long enough," notes McIntosh.

While that is going on, officials at the Republican National Committee vow to stay out of things. Asked what role the RNC might play in any movement against Trump, strategist and spokesman Sean Spicer said, "None. None. Zero. It is up to Republican voters to decide who our nominee is, not the RNC." Indeed, other sources inside the RNC say chairman Reince Priebus has stressed to staff that they must stay out of candidate fights.

The anti-Trump campaign will face several challenges. The biggest is the voters who support Trump. Conservative groups like the Club believe they can convince those voters that Trump is not a true conservative. Perhaps they can. But what if a large number of his voters are not wed to conservative orthodoxy as defined by Washington-based organizations?

The other problem is Trump himself. If he decides to spend serious money on his campaign — and some GOP veterans still aren't convinced he will — he can launch a serious counterpunch to any anti-Trump campaign.

And then there is the fact that Trump is improving as a candidate. Just look at Sunday's interview on "Fox News Sunday" in which he was sharp, focused, and forceful. A talented candidate who does something over and over again will get better at it. Trump is better than he was just a month ago, which is not good news for his opponents.

Some anti-Trump Republicans still harbor hope Trump will begin to fade all by himself. Yes, Trump, who has been atop the RealClearPolitics average of national polls for three months straight, has outlasted the various flavor-of-the-months from the 2012 GOP race. But opponents point out that Rudy Giuliani led the poll average for an incredibly long time four years earlier — from February 2007 to January 2008 — before sinking when voting actually began. Their hope is the same will happen to Trump.

It could. But a closer look at the 2007-2008 polls shows that Giuliani was almost always trailing in Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina. And of course, ignoring the early states killed his candidacy. Trump, on the other hand, is on top in those three states, plus Nevada — all the states that will vote first in February. His organization is growing. He is hiring smart operatives. The Giuliani analogy doesn't apply.

Which makes it more likely that the anti-Trump forces will ultimately have to take it on themselves to go on the attack. Their core belief is that Trump cannot withstand a long and withering bombardment of negative ads. But core beliefs have been cast aside repeatedly in this race. That might happen again.

The Republican establishment is frightened by a Trump nomination that it would severely damage down ticket races. Plus, they know that Trump has zero chance of winning the general election.

If Trump can continue to have a strong 25% support he has a good chance at the nomination. I think we will see come January when the real onslaught occurs how devoted his followers are.

Click to expand...

Trump´s winning in numerous poll against Hillary right now.
Romney killed downticket races.
Those are BS argument propounded by the establishment to scare people away from actual conservatives. However, the record is clear: establishment favorites who stand for nothing lose every time (96, 08, 12)

This weekend was an inflection point in the Republican presidential race — a moment in which some significant part of the GOP establishment came out of denial and realized Donald Trump might well become their party's nominee.

"The Republican establishment, for the first time, is saying, off the record, this guy can win," noted Joe Scarborough on MSNBC Monday morning. "I've heard that from everybody. I don't hear anybody saying he can't win the nomination anymore."

That doesn't mean Republicans have made their peace with a Trump victory. On the contrary — some are preparing to do whatever it takes to bring him down. Which could lead to an extraordinary scenario in which GOP stalwarts go to war to destroy their own party's likely nominee.

Over the weekend I talked to a leading conservative who opposes Trump. I asked what would happen if January comes and Trump is still dominating the race. Would he and other conservatives make their peace with Trump's candidacy, or would there be massive resistance?

"Massive resistance," was the answer. "He's not a conservative."

Insiders have watched as Trump defied what many believed were immutable laws of the political universe. First they thought Trump wouldn't run. Then they thought voters wouldn't take a reality-TV star seriously. Then they thought gaffes would kill Trump as they had other candidates. None of that turned out as expected.

But there is one belief Trump has not yet tested, and that is the political insiders' unshakeable faith that negative ads work.

"I don't think Trump can withstand 10,000 points of smart negative in Iowa and New Hampshire," says one veteran Republican strategist who is not affiliated with any campaign. "It would force him to spend money. That's when this starts to get real for him." ("Points" refers to gross ratings points, a way of measuring TV ad buys; 10,000 points would be a really big buy, meaning the average viewer would see an anti-Trump ad many, many times.)

There is no central anti-Trump conspiracy. But one group that would like to play a leading role in taking him down is the Club for Growth. In September, the Club ran two ads against Trump in Iowa — 2,000 points — with one arguing that Trump is not a true conservative and the other hitting Trump for his support of the Supreme Court'sKelodecision on eminent domain.

"We primed the pump with our ads in Iowa," says Club president David McIntosh. "We did some polling afterward. The ads flipped Trump from first to second place among caucus-goers and put a dent in his approval rating."

McIntosh is looking for donors to fund an anti-Trump campaign that would hit hard in the month before voting begins. It might be a Club for Growth production, or it might be a combination of efforts. "There is no other group that has decided to do it," says McIntosh. "There are a large number of donors and political activists who want to do it."

The triggers for the anti-Trump onslaught would likely be: 1) if next month arrives with Trump still in the lead, and 2) if Trump begins airing his own ads. "Once that starts, you'll see a lot of people saying we've waited long enough," notes McIntosh.

While that is going on, officials at the Republican National Committee vow to stay out of things. Asked what role the RNC might play in any movement against Trump, strategist and spokesman Sean Spicer said, "None. None. Zero. It is up to Republican voters to decide who our nominee is, not the RNC." Indeed, other sources inside the RNC say chairman Reince Priebus has stressed to staff that they must stay out of candidate fights.

The anti-Trump campaign will face several challenges. The biggest is the voters who support Trump. Conservative groups like the Club believe they can convince those voters that Trump is not a true conservative. Perhaps they can. But what if a large number of his voters are not wed to conservative orthodoxy as defined by Washington-based organizations?

The other problem is Trump himself. If he decides to spend serious money on his campaign — and some GOP veterans still aren't convinced he will — he can launch a serious counterpunch to any anti-Trump campaign.

And then there is the fact that Trump is improving as a candidate. Just look at Sunday's interview on "Fox News Sunday" in which he was sharp, focused, and forceful. A talented candidate who does something over and over again will get better at it. Trump is better than he was just a month ago, which is not good news for his opponents.

Some anti-Trump Republicans still harbor hope Trump will begin to fade all by himself. Yes, Trump, who has been atop the RealClearPolitics average of national polls for three months straight, has outlasted the various flavor-of-the-months from the 2012 GOP race. But opponents point out that Rudy Giuliani led the poll average for an incredibly long time four years earlier — from February 2007 to January 2008 — before sinking when voting actually began. Their hope is the same will happen to Trump.

It could. But a closer look at the 2007-2008 polls shows that Giuliani was almost always trailing in Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina. And of course, ignoring the early states killed his candidacy. Trump, on the other hand, is on top in those three states, plus Nevada — all the states that will vote first in February. His organization is growing. He is hiring smart operatives. The Giuliani analogy doesn't apply.

Which makes it more likely that the anti-Trump forces will ultimately have to take it on themselves to go on the attack. Their core belief is that Trump cannot withstand a long and withering bombardment of negative ads. But core beliefs have been cast aside repeatedly in this race. That might happen again.

Trump´s winning in numerous poll against Hillary right now.
Romney killed downticket races.
Those are BS argument peddled by the establishment to scare people away from actual conservatives. However, the record is clear: establishment favorites who stand for nothing lose every time (96, 08, 12)

Click to expand...

That's why Bush is having a problem this election cycle (among other reasons).
General election match-ups mean zero 13 months out. They don't really start to pan out until convention time.

I'm rooting for Trump. Him being in the race, increases the chances of an open convention which would be fun as hell to watch.

That's why Bush is having a problem this election cycle (among other reasons).
General election match-ups mean zero 13 months out. They don't really start to pan out until convention time.

I'm rooting for Trump. Him being in the race, increases the chances of an open convention which would be fun as hell to watch.

Click to expand...

i´d argue that trump is most electable. he´s got crazy crossover appeal (especially with unions b/c of his positions on trade), doesn´t talk much about social issues, gets instant credibility on the most important issue (economy) because of 30 years in spotlight as billionaire, etc., and comes across as very authentic.

the point regarding the polls is that he´s in fine position to win now, so as long as he were to run a decent campaign, there´s no reason he couldn´t

Trump´s winning in numerous poll against Hillary right now.
Romney killed downticket races.
Those are BS argument peddled by the establishment to scare people away from actual conservatives. However, the record is clear: establishment favorites who stand for nothing lose every time (96, 08, 12)

Click to expand...

What are you going to do with Ted Cruz? GW Bush went on the attack against him because he sees Ted Cruz is the greatest threat against his brother. I think you are underestimating the Tea Party.

By lunchtime Saturday, Texas Sen. Ted Cruz and Dr. Ben Carson emerged as the favorite candidates of attendees at a Burlington TEA Party caucus drawing from around the region.Cruz, famous for his marathon filibuster of Obamacare in 2013, took 47 votes at Burlington’s caucus. Carson, a neurosurgeon who rose to political prominence for criticizing the president at the National Prayer Breakfast in 2013, came just short, at 45 votes.

Those figures — along with four votes for Donald Trump and one for Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul — were added to statewide totals Saturday for the N.C. TEA Party Constitutional Caucus. Caucuses were held at Holly Hill Mall and eight other locations statewide.

Burlington’s event was noteworthy for the tenor of debate and topics of discussion as much as the politicking.

The TEA Party emerged several years ago in reaction to the view that some Republican Party members and leaders were playing politics rather than representing conservative values. That belief was as strong as ever Saturday.“There’s nothing wrong with a little bit of friction. It’s healthy,” Congressman Mark Walker said, addressing the Republican Party’s current struggle to find a new speaker of the House. Ohio’s John Boehner announced his resignation last month.

No clear heir to his position has emerged.“We need to elect people with instinctive conservative views who don’t have to go ask their staffers, ‘What’s the conservative viewpoint on this?’” Walker said.Walker represents North Carolina’s 6 th District, including a portion of Alamance County.

Walker and caucus speakers reserved a particular amount of vitriol for Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell of Kentucky. Walker accused McConnell of neglecting to promote bills the House has passed to preserve party politics. Others characterized McConnell as a traitor and a liar.

The threat of RINOs (Republicans in Name Only) is viewed as a constitutional one among TEA Party conservatives.“When these people promise one thing then do another, something’s wrong with us. We voted these people in,” Faye Blackwell, of Chapel Hill, said in remarks supporting Carson.The aim of the caucus, said volunteer organizer Steve Carter of Burlington, is to get conservatives behind a single candidate, rather than spread it among the number of Republican candidates.

.Splitting TEA Party members’ votes in the March primary could result in “the establishment” candidate winning the primary, he said.“And that might not be the best candidate,” Carter said. “We hope whoever comes out of our caucus today gets supported by the entire conservative party of North Carolina.”

Trump brings up illegal immigration. Trump brings up Veterans and how we owe them more than they are getting.

He could win on those 2 items alone.

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yup. its the best way to let the american people know that youre on their side. everyone else tries to force tens of millions of uninvited guests on us, he´s the only one saying it´s time to side with the american people for a change.

I think the problem with the Republican Party is that they are so right wing their core support is somewhat small. If Trump is more moderate then he starts to attract independents, Democrats that don't like Hilary/establishment and then he has a chance of winning...even though he is not a true conservative.

What are you going to do with Ted Cruz? GW Bush went on the attack against him because he sees Ted Cruz is the greatest threat against his brother. I think you are underestimating the Tea Party.

By lunchtime Saturday, Texas Sen. Ted Cruz and Dr. Ben Carson emerged as the favorite candidates of attendees at a Burlington TEA Party caucus drawing from around the region.Cruz, famous for his marathon filibuster of Obamacare in 2013, took 47 votes at Burlington’s caucus. Carson, a neurosurgeon who rose to political prominence for criticizing the president at the National Prayer Breakfast in 2013, came just short, at 45 votes.

Those figures — along with four votes for Donald Trump and one for Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul — were added to statewide totals Saturday for the N.C. TEA Party Constitutional Caucus. Caucuses were held at Holly Hill Mall and eight other locations statewide.

Burlington’s event was noteworthy for the tenor of debate and topics of discussion as much as the politicking.

The TEA Party emerged several years ago in reaction to the view that some Republican Party members and leaders were playing politics rather than representing conservative values. That belief was as strong as ever Saturday.“There’s nothing wrong with a little bit of friction. It’s healthy,” Congressman Mark Walker said, addressing the Republican Party’s current struggle to find a new speaker of the House. Ohio’s John Boehner announced his resignation last month.

No clear heir to his position has emerged.“We need to elect people with instinctive conservative views who don’t have to go ask their staffers, ‘What’s the conservative viewpoint on this?’” Walker said.Walker represents North Carolina’s 6 th District, including a portion of Alamance County.

Walker and caucus speakers reserved a particular amount of vitriol for Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell of Kentucky. Walker accused McConnell of neglecting to promote bills the House has passed to preserve party politics. Others characterized McConnell as a traitor and a liar.

The threat of RINOs (Republicans in Name Only) is viewed as a constitutional one among TEA Party conservatives.“When these people promise one thing then do another, something’s wrong with us. We voted these people in,” Faye Blackwell, of Chapel Hill, said in remarks supporting Carson.The aim of the caucus, said volunteer organizer Steve Carter of Burlington, is to get conservatives behind a single candidate, rather than spread it among the number of Republican candidates.

.Splitting TEA Party members’ votes in the March primary could result in “the establishment” candidate winning the primary, he said.“And that might not be the best candidate,” Carter said. “We hope whoever comes out of our caucus today gets supported by the entire conservative party of North Carolina.”

This weekend was an inflection point in the Republican presidential race — a moment in which some significant part of the GOP establishment came out of denial and realized Donald Trump might well become their party's nominee.

"The Republican establishment, for the first time, is saying, off the record, this guy can win," noted Joe Scarborough on MSNBC Monday morning. "I've heard that from everybody. I don't hear anybody saying he can't win the nomination anymore."

That doesn't mean Republicans have made their peace with a Trump victory. On the contrary — some are preparing to do whatever it takes to bring him down. Which could lead to an extraordinary scenario in which GOP stalwarts go to war to destroy their own party's likely nominee.

Over the weekend I talked to a leading conservative who opposes Trump. I asked what would happen if January comes and Trump is still dominating the race. Would he and other conservatives make their peace with Trump's candidacy, or would there be massive resistance?

"Massive resistance," was the answer. "He's not a conservative."

Insiders have watched as Trump defied what many believed were immutable laws of the political universe. First they thought Trump wouldn't run. Then they thought voters wouldn't take a reality-TV star seriously. Then they thought gaffes would kill Trump as they had other candidates. None of that turned out as expected.

But there is one belief Trump has not yet tested, and that is the political insiders' unshakeable faith that negative ads work.

"I don't think Trump can withstand 10,000 points of smart negative in Iowa and New Hampshire," says one veteran Republican strategist who is not affiliated with any campaign. "It would force him to spend money. That's when this starts to get real for him." ("Points" refers to gross ratings points, a way of measuring TV ad buys; 10,000 points would be a really big buy, meaning the average viewer would see an anti-Trump ad many, many times.)

There is no central anti-Trump conspiracy. But one group that would like to play a leading role in taking him down is the Club for Growth. In September, the Club ran two ads against Trump in Iowa — 2,000 points — with one arguing that Trump is not a true conservative and the other hitting Trump for his support of the Supreme Court'sKelodecision on eminent domain.

"We primed the pump with our ads in Iowa," says Club president David McIntosh. "We did some polling afterward. The ads flipped Trump from first to second place among caucus-goers and put a dent in his approval rating."

McIntosh is looking for donors to fund an anti-Trump campaign that would hit hard in the month before voting begins. It might be a Club for Growth production, or it might be a combination of efforts. "There is no other group that has decided to do it," says McIntosh. "There are a large number of donors and political activists who want to do it."

The triggers for the anti-Trump onslaught would likely be: 1) if next month arrives with Trump still in the lead, and 2) if Trump begins airing his own ads. "Once that starts, you'll see a lot of people saying we've waited long enough," notes McIntosh.

While that is going on, officials at the Republican National Committee vow to stay out of things. Asked what role the RNC might play in any movement against Trump, strategist and spokesman Sean Spicer said, "None. None. Zero. It is up to Republican voters to decide who our nominee is, not the RNC." Indeed, other sources inside the RNC say chairman Reince Priebus has stressed to staff that they must stay out of candidate fights.

The anti-Trump campaign will face several challenges. The biggest is the voters who support Trump. Conservative groups like the Club believe they can convince those voters that Trump is not a true conservative. Perhaps they can. But what if a large number of his voters are not wed to conservative orthodoxy as defined by Washington-based organizations?

The other problem is Trump himself. If he decides to spend serious money on his campaign — and some GOP veterans still aren't convinced he will — he can launch a serious counterpunch to any anti-Trump campaign.

And then there is the fact that Trump is improving as a candidate. Just look at Sunday's interview on "Fox News Sunday" in which he was sharp, focused, and forceful. A talented candidate who does something over and over again will get better at it. Trump is better than he was just a month ago, which is not good news for his opponents.

Some anti-Trump Republicans still harbor hope Trump will begin to fade all by himself. Yes, Trump, who has been atop the RealClearPolitics average of national polls for three months straight, has outlasted the various flavor-of-the-months from the 2012 GOP race. But opponents point out that Rudy Giuliani led the poll average for an incredibly long time four years earlier — from February 2007 to January 2008 — before sinking when voting actually began. Their hope is the same will happen to Trump.

It could. But a closer look at the 2007-2008 polls shows that Giuliani was almost always trailing in Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina. And of course, ignoring the early states killed his candidacy. Trump, on the other hand, is on top in those three states, plus Nevada — all the states that will vote first in February. His organization is growing. He is hiring smart operatives. The Giuliani analogy doesn't apply.

Which makes it more likely that the anti-Trump forces will ultimately have to take it on themselves to go on the attack. Their core belief is that Trump cannot withstand a long and withering bombardment of negative ads. But core beliefs have been cast aside repeatedly in this race. That might happen again.

i´d argue that trump is most electable. he´s got crazy crossover appeal (especially with unions b/c of his positions on trade), doesn´t talk much about social issues, gets instant credibility on the most important issue (economy) because of 30 years in spotlight as billionaire, etc., and comes across as very authentic.

the point regarding the polls is that he´s in fine position to win now, so as long as he were to run a decent campaign, there´s no reason he couldn´t

Click to expand...

When you figure out that our vote doesn't matter next to Wall Street and the big corporations then you'll get it. Especially in this day of electronic voting and hackable computers.