Voters in Quebec head to the polls on Tuesday in an election that may see a separatist party return to power, potentially placing the French-speaking province on course for another referendum to break away from Canada.

The province's Liberal premier, Jean Charest, who has headed Quebec for nearly a decade, called an early election on 1 August and has consistently trailed in the polls to Pauline Marois's Parti Quebecois (PQ). Some polls indicate Marois – who could become the province's first female premier – may not have enough votes to obtain a majority of the seats in the Quebec assembly, undermining efforts to quickly hold a referendum on separation.

Quebec has held two referendums to split from Canada, in 1980 and 1995, both rejecting independence but the last only narrowly.

Polls show there is little appetite for a new referendum and Marois herself has left much uncertainty on if and when one would be held under a PQ government. A recent poll showed support for independence is below 30% but analysts say voters are weary of the Liberals after three terms in office and the PQ is expected to benefit from that.

The PQ has said once elected it would seek a transfer of powers from the federal government in areas like employment insurance and immigration policy. The party believes that if this is turned down it would bolster the case that Quebec should be a separate country.

The campaign has been a three-way race involving a new party, Coalition Avenir Quebec, headed by a former PQ minister who says separatism has paralysed the province for far too long.

Charest called the election more than a year before he had to, citing unrest in the streets due to the spring's student protests over tuition hikes. The most sustained student protests ever to take place in Canada began in February, resulting in about 2,500 arrests.

Polls showed Quebec people were more likely to side with the government on the need for a tuition hike but were divided on an emergency law brought in place to limit demonstrations. Politicians and rights groups have said the legislation restricts civil rights.

Education was hardly a major topic during the campaign, Charest seeking to focus voters on the need to maintain a stable government promoting job creation during troubled global economic times instead of electing separatists who would create uncertainty. He stressed the province has largely been spared the economic hardships seen elsewhere in the west.

Critics say Charest called the snap vote to avoid any embarrassment from an ongoing corruption inquiry into the province's construction industry. The investigation is expected to resume after a summer break and has been largely overshadowed by the student protests.

Charest has touted a development plan, the Plan Nord, which his party says would see $80bn in public and private investment over the next 25 years in areas such as mining and energy, creating thousands of jobs annually and benefiting the entire province. Marois says the companies doing business wouldn't be paying enough royalties and CAQ leader Francois Legault said mostly foreign companies stand to benefit from the Plan Nord.

After nine years the Quebec people have grown wary of the Liberals and are reluctant to re-elect them considering the corruption allegations and a student unrest that evolved into a larger social protest, says Concordia political science Professor Bruce Hicks. "Quebecers tend to tire of the government and throw them out," he says. "It's sort of been the tradition in Quebec politics."

But Hicks still considers the election "up for grabs" considering the number of people who remain uncertain about how they will vote. Two-thirds of Quebec voters want nothing to do with sovereignty, Hicks says. But even if it doesn't come to a new referendum the election of a PQ government would make for tense relations with the federal government and a conservative prime minister who has difficulty appealing to the Quebec people.

"At the very least the rhetoric is going to increase but I suspect tensions and conflict will rise as well," he says.