No region is decarbonizing its energy supply, but the growth of CO2 emissions is greatest in rapidly developing countries (China).

Developing and least-developed countries account for 73% of emissions GROWTH in 2004 (only 41% of total global emissions)

Implications for global equity

Growth in CO2 comes from both fossil-fuel combustion emissions and CO2 flux resulting from land clearing, this paper is focused on the former

Raupach et al. do a regional analysis of emissions trends and their demographic, economic, and tech drivers by using the Kaya identity

The global CO2 emission flux from fossil fuel combustion and industrial processes (F) includes contributions from seven sources: national-level combustion of solid, liquid, and gaseous fuels; flaring of gas from wells and industrial processes; cement production; oxidation of nonfuel hydrocarbons; and fuel from ‘‘international bunkers’’ used for shipping and air transport (separated because it is often not included in national invento- ries).

See reading for exact equation, detailed analysis and methodology

Results of analysis

Strong global CO2 emissions growth was driven by population (P) and per-capita global GDP (g) and also reversal of earlier declining trends in energy intensity of GDP (e) and carbon intensity of energy (f).

This f trend is occurring in developing and developed countries – no region is decarbonizing its energy supply.

IPCC scenarios are based on continuous decreases in e and f. If those decreases don’t happen, emissions will likely be much greater than as predicted in the scenarios.