Signs of a coming heatwave w/c 22nd July. 850Hpa look likely to touch 20+ during next week on some runs and without the cool boundary layer present during the previous plume, temperatures at the surface should respond in a more characteristic manner. There is certainly a potential for several days >30°C, possibly approaching 35°C in favoured spots.

While this appears at this stage to mostly apply to the southern half of the UK, some runs show warm air extending further north later this week though it all depends on how strong the jet stream is and how long the Atlantic Low sits out to the NW.

TS at the Beeb estimates 32°C at peak; hard to know how the low and high to its N will interact; a flash in the pan, a short burst of heat, or several days of high temperatures; some models even recharging beyond the following weekend.

The chance of a hot spell spanning Mon until at least Tue for the UK and Sun to at least Wed for France, with peak temps at least the low 30s for the UK and high 30s for France (given parched terrain maximising temps for the setup), seems pretty high.

A longer run of hot weather with higher peak temps seems to be a coin toss at this point in time; models swinging wildly on this as it seems that the precise details of the Atlantic trough on Mon-Tue strongly influence the duration of the event.

It's a nasty situation for those in charge of heat-health warnings or similar; a potential high-end event mostly dependant on what happens in what will shortly be 4-5 days from now.

Big risk of a false positive, but that could arguably be worse than a false negative (the negative implied by issuing no warnings).

and a postscript on similar conditions in the US expected a bit later on.

The category 6 site is IMO the best general weather blog out there. They covered the June heatwave very well. Preconditions are indeed quite different from June: no rain for a month in much of France and very dry soils. This should mean hotter diurnal maxes than would happen otherwise, more sunshine, and cooler night minima.

Macon so far this month is 1.5C above normal for min, but 3.0C above for max.

There is an excessive heat watch in place here (DC region) and lots of the northeast US for tomorrow for heat index values up to 46°C. Having experienced 40°C before compared with the 36°C yesterday, the latter was much worse due to significantly higher humidity.

Seemingly quite a few record high minima may be set across parts of NE US in the next couple of days. Even by the hot and sticky weather that is the norm in summer on the eastern seaboard this is oppressive. Heat is fine, hot and humid makes it much more difficult to cool down.

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