Measuring the Success of Vista's First 100 Days

As Windows Vista reaches its first meaningful milestone--100 days of widespread availability, as measured from its January 29 consumer launch--it's time to begin analyzing whether the product is truly successful. Back in March, Microsoft announced that Vista sales were record setting, with more than 20 million Vista licenses sold in its first 30 days on the market, a rate double that of its predecessor, Windows XP. And in April, Microsoft credited better-than-expected Vista sales for the company's record quarterly revenue of $14.4 billion.

Still, Vista seems to have a shroud of controversy. Some high-profile technical bloggers have written about switching back to XP or even to a Macintosh, citing problems with Vista. There seems to be a lot of Vista hardware and software incompatibility horror stories on the Internet, with some suggesting that Vista be renamed Windows Me 2, after the ill-fated Windows release from 2000. And some bloggers have attempted to break down Microsoft's earnings in a dubious bid to prove that Vista isn't really selling as well as Microsoft claims.

So what's the truth? In the coming weeks, Microsoft will answer these and other questions as it addresses the 100 days milestone. We can also expect more information to come out at next week's Windows Hardware Engineering Conference (WinHEC). But for now, with the help of some numbers and statistics from Microsoft and other sources, I can shed some light on at least two measures of Vista's success.

First, let's look at Vista sales. In calendar year 2006, PC makers sold about 230 million PCs worldwide, and analysts expect PC sales to jump 8 to 11 percent this year. Assuming Vista is installed on most of those PCs--and it will be--you're going to see some pretty healthy numbers for Vista. (Microsoft has conservatively estimated a Vista installed base of 100 million by the end of 2007.) But in Microsoft's world, corporate sales are king. According to the company, corporate sales of Vista--despite all the rumors--are actually almost twice that of the previous record holder, Windows 2000.

But don't take Microsoft's word for it. Gartner claims that Vista will be installed on 4.2 percent of all business computers by the end of 2007, and IDC has estimated that number to be 5 percent. In comparison, Win2K was installed on 2.6 percent of all business computers after a year on the market. Note that these figures are based on percentages of the overall market: Vista isn't getting an artificial boost because the PC market is larger today. In addition, "InformationWeek" Research said that 25 percent of the 612 businesses it surveyed are currently deploying Vista, and an additional 17 percent plan to begin deploying Vista by the end of the year. That rate is also much higher than it was for previous Windows versions, according to "InformationWeek" Research.

Next, let's look at all the high-profile bloggers' problems with Vista. Although one might question the technical acuity of a so-called technical guru who can't handle a brand-new OS, you have to wonder if these critics have problems that translate into widespread, real-world problems. As it turns out, they don't. And this matches my own experiences: As a reviewer, I've installed Vista on numerous hardware configurations and have run into few compatibility problems. The problems I did have were quickly fixed right after Vista's consumer launch in January. So where are all these complaints coming from?

Obviously, some real compatibility problems do exist: Vista is a major Windows update with a completely redesigned driver model, a newly secured kernel, and a new graphics stack. Antivirus is an obvious area where Vista lagged behind at launch, although one might argue that antivirus vendors knew Vista was coming for years before it shipped. (Today, all five major antivirus vendors have Vista-compatible products on the market.) Overall, the very public noise about supposed compatibility problems has completely drowned out reality: Most devices (and applications, for that matter) work just fine with Vista.

Let's look at the numbers. In January, more than 1.5 million devices were Vista compatible. Today, there are 1.9 million Vista-compatible devices. Microsoft told me that number represents about 96 percent of the devices out there today. Sounds like a horrible level of compatibility, doesn't it? "We were more ready with ecosystem coverage--that is, application and device support--with Vista than we were with any other OS release," Windows Client Partner Platform Group Director Dave Wascha said. "This was a five-year effort aimed at getting our partners and customers ready."

In addition, Microsoft has added instrumentation to Vista so that customers can provide the company with feedback if something goes wrong. Thanks to this feedback, the company is making fixes at an unprecedented rate. More importantly, Microsoft is identifying the device driver incompatibilities that are causing the most problems and fixing those first. Of the remaining 4 percent of incompatible devices, or about 70,000 devices, 4,000 of them account for about 80 percent of the problems. "This is our bogey list right now," Wascha told me in a recent briefing. "So we're on the phone with vendors, flying out to meet with them, and getting these issues addressed. Once that's done, we'll do it all again."

So what's the criterion for getting a device to work in Vista? Wascha told me that Microsoft will fix or create drivers for any device that generates 500 or more user reports. "We have legions of engineers dedicated to this one purpose," Wascha said. "And we will continue to churn through that list." The only exception, of course, is drivers for devices that are no longer sold because the company that made them went out of business. "Unfortunately, the answer there is that it will never work," Wascha said.

Microsoft is caught in a catch-22 in some ways. Customers want the company to be innovative, but often don't like the side effects of that innovation. For example, Microsoft changed the graphics architecture in Vista to make it more visually exciting, but then some users complained that their video cards were no longer compatible. "Some people have had a less than stellar experiences with graphics cards," Wascha admitted. "This is a tiny minority of users. Unfortunately, it's been a vocal minority." Wascha wouldn't name the main culprit, but in my experience, NVIDIA's graphics cards have lagged behind ATI's, although the gap appears to have shrunk in recent days.

And what about those high-profile problems that the bloggers are grousing about? According to Wascha, those problems have never shown up in Vista's instrumentation. That's right: These bloggers actually opted out of Microsoft's feedback program. And when the fixed drivers do become available, you never see follow-up posts crediting Microsoft for fixing the problems. "We sit here and wrack our brains," Wascha said. "The drivers are out there."

Meanwhile, there are other pesky facts that just don't correlate with widespread opinion articles on the Internt. Microsoft is seeing one-third the number of security problems in Vista that it saw in XP's first 100 days. Application crashes are also being addressed more quickly. For example, Wascha noted that Microsoft shipped a compatibility fix for a bug that was causing applications to crash less than two days after the bug was reported. "We want to make sure that the perception out there about the product is accurate," Wascha said. "We're excited about the work we've done, and we know the system is working."

Discuss this Article 38

Joe (not verified)

on May 10, 2007

Waethorn... unfortunately a fellow Canadian...
"here's that attitude again! can't open your mouth without saying something snide. "
Quite the hypocrite as that's usually your MO.
You described yourself perfectly then reinforce it with the follow up on "page 3"...
"(what an hypocritical a$$h0le!)".
Keep up the snide, arrogant, NBM remarks.
It speaks volumes.
...

"The farce that is their so called democracy (i.e the company that can buy the most senators wins) sucks badly."
Something tells me that you need to study US government more...
Yes, there are some corrupt/inept politicians (like Ted Stevens), but on the whole, is a great system.

Canada does have social and political influence, just not in the political wasteland that is the United States.
Nothing has social or political influence in the US, except for the US. Nothing.
But we do a pretty good job in developing democracies, particularly our Charter of Rights and Freedoms.

"if OS X is so great, why can't they show all the "cool" things it can do?"
OT but it does bring up a good point that Leopard has been in development for years, and with a release in less than 6 months (maybe) there still hasn't been a television spot about it. Other than an 'off the cuff' mention by Justin Long.
But Apple marketing rarely tends to focus on the product itself. Even back with the '1984' commercials it's been about 'if I say the other guy sucks, then that must mean I don't suck'.
First order logic, thy name is not Apple.A

"Between training expenses, potential driver and software issues, licensing costs, and the costs to just deploy the software it's a massive undertaking."
being an Authorized Microsoft Volume Licensing Reseller, i can tell you that a business should look at the value of the higher-level VL programs. Open Value is one of the best (for small to mid-sized businesses) to deflect much of these costs, especially support and training. it also includes Software Assurance (major upgrades included during your contract), so the choice is a complete no-brainer. part of the training tools also include deployment help, as well as the actual tools used for deployment. there's too many benefits to list here, but the cost is usually an additional 40% per license, so for most businesses, it just makes sense.
XP

@john
And that is exactly why I tend to be biased against Apple. I'm sick of attack ads - if OS X is so great, why can't they show all the "cool" things it can do? Instead of showing any new features, they constantly attack MS. In fact, in some of their latest commercials, they do not mention a *single* thing about how great OS X is - the entire ad is based around the supposed huge cost of upgrading to Vista (as opposed to buying a completely new computer and OS). I just can't support a company who uses deceptive advertising to sell their products.
On the other hand, here is Microsoft's O-Fone...
http://bink.nu/Article10044.bink
(Don't worry, it's a joke :-)

botom line is nothing has changed. Vista will repeat the XP sucess (market dominance) and no matter how much FUD the bloggers and gartner and anti-MS ala slashdot crowd throw at, vista will dominate yet again.
apple will keep charging 170 bucks per 0.1 upgrade, next year will be the year of the linux desktop again, and sun will keep saying java is alive. Google keeps making crappy web apps and exposing your pivate data to the world.
Then vienna comes and repeats the story.

Of course, I was talking from a consumer perspectivfe. From a corporate perspective, people expect all hardware and software issues to be sorted out by the time the service pack is made available (for Vista, it's some time during Q1 2008) and that's the time my company expects to begin the transition.

losta, you should do your homework.
education in Canada is freely available, and Provincial taxes pay for it. assisted-living families are not discriminated against. free health care is also a common fact of life in Canada. the fact that it's not in the Charter means nothing. any registered Canadian with a Social Insurance Number can register for a free Health Card.
Mandel is a socialist left-wing nut. however, there are a few things i agree with:
"He is stridently anti-war and has suggested that US President George W. Bush be banned from entering Canada because of the American invasion of Iraq."
"As that letter indicates, many of the crimes of which President Bush stands accused are crimes under Canadian law, specifically under the Crimes Against Humanity and War Crimes Act. "
http://www.counterpunch.org/mandel11262004.html
"The very document yours is based on."
don't even start with the who-copied-who game. the US document is based on British documents that far preceed them. the Canadian Charter is based on the British documents since Canada was considered part of the British domain until the 1950's (hence the name used up until then - Dominion of Canada).
you should really learn some history. obviously you need to bone up on your own first though.
XP

"And I'm not a fan of "Waethorn's" suggestion of paying a 40% per-license premium to ease the transition, either."
"So yeah, I get it. I really do."
obviously not, since you didn't even read the point about extended support (which is where you don't have to pay during the extra 5 year extended support period), nor about the free upgrades (Vienna is coming in 2009, so on a standard 3 year Open Value contract, you get that included for nothing extra).
"It's about as relevant as a discussion of the Zune's market share, or the political and social influence of Canada."
so why bring them up??!
(what an hypocritical a$$h0le!)
XP

"it says that the vista drivers support the "basic printing and scanning" features of the device"
most consumer HP printers (or Officejets that are derivatives of consumer models) actually work with Vista out-of-the-box, and many have software updates on HP's website. for those that don't have software updates but work with Vista's out-of-box drivers, you can use all the functionality built into Windows Vista. for office workers, the Windows Fax & Scan is really quite good, and it even supports scanners with multi-page sheet feeders. if you have Vista Home Premium, i'd recommend upgrading to Ultimate to get that functionality. if you already have Vista Business, then you have Windows Fax & Scan, and if HP is leaving you high and dry, you can tell them to kiss your a$$ cuz you can do everything their bloatware does with built-in Windows functions.
XP

"I'm curious if you grok the difficulties involved in deploying an OS."
Indeed, I do. You're right--it's a "massive undertaking". At my last company, I watched my friends in IT pull their hair out over the switch to XP. It wasn't pretty. And it's doubly difficult when you can't be certain with any real confiidence that the OS you're moving to will adequately support your software and peripherals.
And I'm not a fan of "Waethorn's" suggestion of paying a 40% per-license premium to ease the transition, either. Making the move to a new OS (especially enterprise-wide) should be done with great caution and only if there is a compelling need.
So yeah, I get it. I really do. That does NOT negate my statement that a (projected) 5% adoption rate a full year after introduction can hardly be considered stellar. I honestly believe it says a lot about how robust Windows XP is, and how (aside from the eye candy and some minor security enhancements) Vista is being met with a collective "yawn". I haven't seen anything yet in Vista that makes me say "Wow! I've gotta have that!". The eye candy is "meh", and y'all keep telling me that XP can be secured, to why switch? Seriously...I'm perfectly fine to stick with XP for the forseeable future, and so, I suspect, are the majority of users.
"OSX? What does that have to do with anyting?"
For purposes of this discussion (migrating to Vista), nothing. It's about as relevant as a discussion of the Zune's market share, or the political and social influence of Canada.

@lotsa:
"Seriously? A year after its introduction it will be installed on a whopping FIVE PERCENT of all business computers?
That hardly seems like a huge success (but I give you credit for "spin of the year" with the comment "Meanwhile, Windows 2000 was installed on 2.6 percent of all business computers after a year on the market." Wow. Talk about "faint praise")."
You're proving you're a marketing person again here.
Have you ever tried to deploy out a new OS to an entire corporation? Between training expenses, potential driver and software issues, licensing costs, and the costs to just deploy the software it's a massive undertaking.
5% in the first year for a completely new OS is rather impressive - especially when you consider how successful its predecessor (XP) has been.

"As I was watching T.V., an Apple commercial came on to the screen"
I love the new ads. Read some of the posts here, and you'll understand why they're appropriate, particularly the lines, "My new Operating System arrives and I've had nothing but problems. Now I can't even use some of my...peripherals", "It's time to play 'Choose a Vista!' ", "Daddy needs an upgrade!", and "On a scale of 1 to 10, how much I loathe Mac? (Answer): 11".
All those lines are reflective of comments posted on this board so far. All accurate. No wonder the Windows fanbois hate them--it's like looking in a mirror.

I know this is in no way relevant, but as an avid reader of Paul’s website and, enjoyably, the comments section, I feel I need to reveal the discovery I made last night.
As I was watching T.V., an Apple commercial came on to the screen. It was a typical Apple commercial where the pretentious “Apple Guy” was knocking on the “PC Guy” for some stupid reason, particularly the fact that Vista took 5 years to develop.
Many people have posted comments regarding the “flaming” that goes on. Often there have been posts in response to this flaming asking why an individual would do such a thing like spew misleading, irrelevant claims about a company.
After watching this Apple commercial, I realized that Apple actually encourages this behavior by setting themselves up as a model. Apple’s entire television marketing campaign rests on “flaming” Microsoft. We point our fingers at the posters (bonch, preston, etc), but we should really be pointing our fingers at a company who uses underhanded marketing techniques to trash the competition.
I am not trying to shift the blame to Apple, as the people posting the comments are responsible for their own actions. What I am trying to do is bring to light the fact that people who thoughtlessly make claims do not do so merely out of stupidity, they do so because they follow the example that is set by the corporation they look up to.

"Yeah...a document known around the world *cough, cough*"
exactly, but don't take credit for it:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Charter_of_Rights_and_Freedoms
(perhaps you were thinking of the US Bill of Rights, or perhaps the UN Declaration of Human Rights?)
XP

"http://bink.nu/Article10044.bink"
heheheheh
looks like the 3 Degrees UI team designed that. ;)
remember 3 Degrees? whatever happened to that project? i suppose the team got assimilated into the WL Messenger team, because the new Music Mix functionality in Messenger is nearly identical as it was in 3 Degrees....
XP

Well, since you brought up wikipedia (the source you usually love to hate):
"Professor Michael Mandel...wrote that in comparison to politicians, judges do not have to be as sensitive to the will of the electorate, nor do they have to make sure their decisions are easily understandable to the average Canadian citizen. This, in Mandel's view, limits democracy. Mandel has also asserted that the Charter makes Canada more like the United States, especially by serving corporate rights and individual rights rather than group rights and social rights. He has argued that there are several rights that should be included in the Charter, such as a right to health care and a basic right to free education. Hence, the perceived Americanization of Canadian politics is seen as coming at the expense of values more important for Canadians."
Face it. Canada is "United States Lite". Cute money, though.
"perhaps you were thinking of the US Bill of Rights"
The very document yours is based on.

"O/S that is only supported until 2009"
Vista is supported for free for 5 years, with extended (paid) support for another 5, so theoretically, support will end in 2016 since it was out in the fall of 2006, although Microsoft hasn't "officially" stated anything specific in regards to Windows Vista.
Vienna is coming out in 2009, but it doesn't mean that support for Vista will end, only that Vienna will be all that you can buy at that point forward, depending on what channel you buy from. this will also be the same when Vista Service Packs start coming out - all new media will have the new SP included.
....anybody remember the Windows 95 OSR's? they were OEM Service Releases only released to (you guessed it) the OEM/System Builder channel. that was the time when USB was rolling around and support was [haphazardly] introduced in OSR2.1, but only a System Builder had access to the code, so end-users couldn't upgrade easily. of course, that was also back before there was a conduit to get large product updates (ie. high-speed Internet)....
support for Vista won't end at the release of Vienna, much like how Windows 2000 support didn't end at the launch of XP, but choice of which version you can buy will be limited to only certain channels - likely VL customers, and a very limited selection of computer manufacturers, if Microsoft even offers them the option.
as for the "Channel" (ie. the OEM/System Builder channel), i wouldn't keep my hopes up. Microsoft usually limits availability of the old product near the launch of the new one, and Authorized Distributors usually have to place bids to get the last run of the old products. business product availability will be more flexible though. for instance, i was able to get XP Pro copies even after Vista's launch from authorized dist's, but now the supplies have pretty much dried up.
"OSX? What does that have to do with anyting?"
on this site? in the IT world?? absolutely nothing!
XP

"I think we know who the *real* marketing person is, don't we?"
there's that attitude again! can't open your mouth without saying something snide.
judging by those sales figures, the competition's marketing isn't exactly working for them. Microsoft's marketing techniques are proven time-and-time-again and their resources are gold for resellers.
Mac's marketing message is:
"hey resellers - make them come into your Mac store (regardless of the distance) and tell them it's doesn't run Windows and the customer will buy it" (like that ever works)
Linux's message is:
"Microsoft is evil! why? because we said so. don't buy the leading OS on the planet! we have a "community"! (even though nobody knows what's going on....)".
let's see - the article is about Vista sales figures. how does marketing not play a part in that, not to mention that i addressed some of jersey's points?? you are, after all, a professional marketing agent are you not??
XP

@lotsa:
"That does NOT negate my statement that a (projected) 5% adoption rate a full year after introduction can hardly be considered stellar."
It may not negate your statement, but it still doesn't make your statement true.
Do you remember at all when Windows 2000 came out? If you want to talk about an improved feature set compared to the previous OS, Windows 2000 was it. And Windows 2000 was able to only garner 2.6% after one year. Vista hitting 5% is an impressive accomplishment.
"For purposes of this discussion (migrating to Vista), nothing. It's about as relevant as a discussion of the Zune's market share, or the political and social influence of Canada."
I was having the discussion with someone who's familiar with OSX. I was simply trying to contrast the difficulties of deploying an OS to an entire corporation as opposed to the requirements for OSX.

Vintage lotsamystuff. Even when he applauds MS, it gets lost in all the snark.
"Good news rarely "sells", otherwise "Grit" would be the top newspaper in the country. "
Usually, only good news sells when it concerns Apple and Google. Sorry. You might think of it as flamebait. It's true.

"Gartner claims that Windows Vista will be installed on 4.2 percent of all business computers by the end of 2007. IDC has estimated the number at 5 percent. "
Seriously? A year after its introduction it will be installed on a whopping FIVE PERCENT of all business computers?
That hardly seems like a huge success (but I give you credit for "spin of the year" with the comment "Meanwhile, Windows 2000 was installed on 2.6 percent of all business computers after a year on the market." Wow. Talk about "faint praise").
I'm not surprised that the complainers get all the press. Good news rarely "sells", otherwise "Grit" would be the top newspaper in the country.
OTOH I give credit to Microsoft for doing everything they can to fix the problems wrought by Vista. It's clearly a massive undertaking, and per your article, they seem to be making good progress. Perhaps by that one-year mark, they'll have come far enough to give the other 95% a reason to switch.
(Didn't I hear GW Bush say, "We're excited about the work we've done, and we know the system is working."?)
;-) <----the all-forgiving wink

The uptake of a new version is always going to be very slow.
Corporations don't buy software based on their release schedule, but on hardware refresh cycles.
Obviously they aren't going to refresh their hardware with an O/S that is only supported until 2009.
OSX? What does that have to do with anyting?

@john
And that is exactly why I tend to be biased against Apple. I'm sick of attack ads - if OS X is so great, why can't they show all the "cool" things it can do? Instead of showing any new features, they constantly attack MS. In fact, in some of their latest commercials, they do not mention a *single* thing about how great OS X is - the entire ad is based around the supposed huge cost of upgrading to Vista (as opposed to buying a completely new computer and OS). I just can't support a company who uses deceptive advertising to sell their products.
On the other hand, here is Microsoft's O-Fone...
http://bink.nu/Article10044.bink
(Don't worry, it's a joke :-)

"Vista is being met with a collective "yawn". I haven't seen anything yet in Vista that makes me say "Wow! I've gotta have that!". "
Blame the reviewers for the collective "yawn". There's more to Vista than some "meh" UI enhancements. Yes' there's probably no single feature that makes you go "Wow", but when you add up all those small things, you realize that Vista is actually a huge improvement over XP. The comparisons to Windows Me are sad and dubious.

@KingBuzzo
"OSX? What does that have to do with anyting?"
The OSX comment was for Lotsa's sake. If he wants to point out his perceived issues with Vista's adoption rate, I figured it only fair to mention OSX's adoption rate - or lack there of.

@lotsa:
You didn't answer my question. I'm curious if you grok the difficulties involved in deploying an OS. It's simple with OSX - you upgrade the 3 systems that are using OSX. Deploying Windows out to 300 or 3,000 is a tad more daunting.
On top of that, most companies tend to be very cautious when it comes to deploying software. I still deal with clients on a daily basis that are still using NT4 for one reason or another.

I think windows vista is ok on its own. The problem is on the partners part. In my experience, there's no HP printer or scanner or multifunction that fully supports the OS. You can tell in the drivers section on HP website. In the case of my officejet 7110, it says that the vista drivers support the "basic printing and scanning" features of the device. But what about the software that came with the device?, specially if you need to view the fax history log and phone history. This multifunction did not cost 1 dollar and, even worse, HP suggest you "should upgrade" your device, then takes you to a web page to "actually buy a new printer" what's that all about?
"If your HP device doesn't work in vista, no problem, BUY A NEW ONE" I don't think that's the way to get through the drivers / software problem in vista.
Besides some printing problems, I decided to switch back to xp, where all the multifunction's CD-ROM software actually work and check back from time to time on the HP driver site to see if they finally come with something new for the device.
My humble opinion on vista, as a promising OS is, keep it for testing until, maybe October, checking if the software you usually use (your current versions) has been updated somewhat so you can install that update under vista. Or if you have the money to buy the newest versions (take adobe for example, they will not update Adobe CS2 to be fully vista compatible), just go out and do it.
Happy computing experience with vista :)