#10
Nezavisimaya Gazeta
May 14, 2003THE WRATH AND MERCY OF GEORGE W. BUSH
What has Russia really gained from supporting the United States?Author: Anatol Lieven, senior associate at the Carnegie Endowment for
International Peace
[from WPS Monitoring Agency, www.wps.ru/e_index.html]

AS A RESULT OF THE US VICTORY IN IRAQ, WE ARE ENTERING A PERIOD OF
PRACTICALLY UNLIMITED US HEGEMONY; OTHER NATIONS WILL FOLLOW IN BRITAIN'S
FOOTSTEPS AND GO ALONG WITH THE US. AFTER THAT, THE RUSSIAN- FRENCH-GERMAN
COALITION WILL SPLIT.

I'm sure that Russia has derived little benefit from its so- called new
partnership with the US. Some representatives of the incumbent administration
and their supporters confirm this in private conversation. In this regard, the
question of what Russia stood to lose in the event of an isolated incident of
"misbehavior" during the Iraq conflict is very appropriate. Would
Russia have lost anything?

In my opinion, it wouldn't.

Firstly, there is a sound assumption that unless the Americans go completely
mad, they will in no way support Chechen separatism. The point is that if they
venture to do this they would create a safe harbor for international terrorism.
Regardless of the fact that that some Americans dislike Russia, they will not
encourage international terrorism.

As far as other dividends of partnership with the US are concerned, I find it
difficult to point out any at all. The Jackson- Vanik amendment has not been
repealed. Have you seen a stream of US investment in the Russian economy? No,
you haven't. Will the US invest in the Russian oil industry? No, it won't, as
long as the US is using Iraq as an economic colony.

On the other hand, signals coming from Washington testify that the US dos not
intend to punish Russia for its position regarding Iraq. France angers
Washington more than Russia. Even in sectors and issues where Moscow and
Washington encounter serious differences (for instance, the possibility of
unleashing a war on Iraq) the US first tries to reach an agreement with Russia.

The entire history of the US-Russian relations since the end of the Cold war
testifies that Russia does not receive anything for its unconditional approval
of the US policy. In other words, Russia's foreign policy must boil down to
defending its national interests and international principles and standards,
which Russia considers as being most important - only in this case it will make
sense.

As far as the Russian-French-German coalition is concerned, it's not clear
what the outcome will be. It is also evident that owing to its unique nature and
logic it is very difficult for the European Union to make economic and visa
concessions to Russia. The European Union is based on concord between all
member-nations, and it will become more difficult for the EU to make concessions
when pathologically anti-Russian nations such as the Baltic States join it.
Nevertheless, we should bear three things in mind. Firstly, the EU is more
important for Russia than the US from the economic point of view. Potentially,
France and Germany might become a very important source of investment in the
Russian economy.

Secondly, as a result of the US victory in Iraq, we are entering a period of
practically unlimited US hegemony; other nations will follow in Britain's
footsteps and go along with the US. After that, the Russian-French-German
coalition will split. Thirdly, it is not ruled out that the US will go too far
in Middle East. If this happens, it will stir up public opinion in Europe, and
incumbent pro-American governments (in particular, Tony Blair's and Silvio
Berlusconi's Cabinets) will fall. This, in turn, will result in a more united
Western Europe. This scenario will become more probable if the US strikes at
Syria or Iran, or if Washington does not let the UN take part in the restoration
of Iraq.