My name is Sam Wilson. I have been a Full-time Horse racing trader since 2006. These betting markets are constantly evolving to present fresh challenges to even the most seasoned traders. I will share my knowledge and experiences here as I continue to Adapt & Survive.

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Friday, 23 October 2009

My first two years trading were spent as an out and out scalper. Very rarely would I hang on for 4-5 ticks profit/loss. It gave me a great feel for the market and always being "in the money" kept me focused and almost in an auto-pilot mindset. I never monitored graphs or trends and would only use instinct to decide where I could get in and out with little risk.

Maybe I started to peak as scalper or the markets became more suited to another style. Either way I had to change the way I monitor a race and look at the bigger picture, not just the favorite.

Looking back at some recent videos i can see how I've developed a Hybrid style where I can scalp and make small swing trades based on the increased market information i now use. Here's one from last week. Not a massive profit but done with very little risk.

Tuesday, 13 October 2009

With nearly 600k matched on the X Factor 2009 winner market after just one live show anyone with an opinion can now have a serious punt on this years batch of wannabee pop stars.

Coincidentally it was my Mum who asked me to put a bet on the X Factor for her over 4 years ago.
After searching an odds comparison site i noticed Betfair's price was the most competitive. This is where it all began for me.

Saturday, 10 October 2009

I'd been wanting to make some videos of my trading for a while but since returning from holiday I'd been struggling to get back into the action and have therefore been focusing my attention on that. The markets are pretty tricky at the moment. Ive had to reduce activity slightly and not commit too much to a trade as its much harder to get out if I get it wrong.

I recorded some footage of my trading yesterday and it was interesting to watch it back. I was kicking myself at times where i could see myself hanging on too long and being too greedy. It reminded me that i still have a lot to improve on.

This video was from the 17:25 at Carlisle. I chose this one as it shows both swinging and scalping techniques on the favourite. I tried to record the full screen but my fossil of a laptop couldn't cope and was freezing up on me so I had to reduce the recording window. I also missed the start of the action here Im a Camtasia novice.

Thursday, 24 September 2009

Ciao! Ive just returned from a much needed break in Sardinia, hence the lack of posts and unanswered comments. We had an incredible trip, the people are very friendly and the food/wine was superb. I hired a convertible mini as a surprise for my girlfriend but had a head in hands moment upon arrival to see thunder clouds and rain. Luckily the weather improved and as we traveled across the island we seemed to follow the sunshine. The Island visually is absolutely stunning, my particular highlight was hiring a boat in Cala-Gonone and stopping at all the remote beaches on the Golfo Di Orosei. Here's a few snaps!

Well its back to business now and hopefully i can pick up where i left off. I'm always a little cautious after a break it can be a little difficult to get the ball rolling again but with the Ascot festival starting tomorrow there should be plenty of opportunities to get back in the swing of things.

Sunday, 6 September 2009

Can be fast and furious with races going off every 5 minutes it does get quite hectic. It’s harder to stay focused so sometimes I will skip races at poorer meetings with lower liquidity. This also gives me more time to assess the next market and possibly get a decent early position.

I started slowly and was probably being a bit too reserved after my awful start on Friday.

I missed the boat on more markets than I’d of liked and had one hefty losse where I didn't bite the bullet and get out of bad a position, saying that the P&L was in a healthy state in the end so I can’t complain.

My best race today was the 3:30 at Haydock. I took a screen shot just after id got into some decent positions and took another just at the end as I was greening up.

"Getting on"

"Greening up"

Saturday rounded off an amazing week for me. I missed Monday due to Notting Hill Carnival partying. I’ve rarely pulled that much profit out of 104 markets especially in whats supposed to be a quiet week.

I’m putting a good chunk of this into my football account to try some in-play next week… I think it’s important to keep different trading banks separate especially when trying a new sport seriously for the first time. There’s a whole new load of lessons to be learnt and it would be silly to be reckless and throw away money you’ve spent years building
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Saturday, 5 September 2009

I had one of the worst starts to a day ever yesterday. I'd been out drinking the night before, had little sleep and just wasn’t at the races for the first hour.

"The First Hour"

The first races are so important; if you can have a solid start it sets you up for the day and gets you straight into the zone. This didn’t happen for me, I didn’t quite feel right and should of been more cautious. The first two races I made the huge error of not having the three ladders open and not watching out for what other horses prices were doing. Big gambles on 2nd favs were sending the favs on big drifts and sending my bank into the red!

A year ago if I had a start like this I’d of either turned the pc off or carried on in a damage limitation exercise i.e. set a target of -100 and stop. But things have changed!

"The Fight Back"

Even on the comeback I was sometimes getting out of trades too early. I suppose sub-consciously I wanted to get back to 0 and then anything else is a bonus. You’d have to be made of stone not to have that mentality, but some people are!

I was chuffed to finish £210 up on the day. Hopefully lesson learned that I do need to be much more cautious and focused from the start, especially when I’m indulging the night before.

Good luck trading today, if you do have a bad start don’t give up and FIGHT BACK!!!

Thursday, 3 September 2009

You'll hear a lot of pro traders talk about "instinct" when trading races.
In my opinion it can’t be taught and comes purely from experience and putting in many hours watching the numbers. You develop a feel for the market and confidence grows as you start making more and more positive trades. I had lots of ups and downs when I first started, it’s a huge learning curve and you have to be prepared to lose money to progress. I was very close to quitting when something just clicked, I started getting a feel for it and was trying to make £10- £15 a day consistently. That soon turned into
£50 £75 and its been positive ever since. Wednesday 2nd P&L

I’ve had a great start to the week, I’m 100% focused and confidence keeps growing. Yesterday was very solid and today is still not over however,
I’m prepared for a knock and wont get carried away, you never know what’s around the corner.

My name is Sam Wilson, I opened a Betfair account in December 2005. My Mum had asked me to put a bet on the X-Factor and after visiting a price comparison site I discovered Betfair. I was intrigued about the betting exchange concept and after a good 3 months of researching sports arbitrage and trading I threw myself into the pit and it turned out to be a life changing decision.

I went full time in May 06 and started recording my results a month later. My first year was amazing, I was extremely motivated and would trade 6-7 days a week doing lots of evening racing in the summer. My second year was equally good profit wise but disappointing in the fact that i didn't top my first years figures. I did take more time off and hardly touched the evening cards, I put it down to this initially but really I should of looked deeper. Motivation and drive were becoming an issue and year three's total profit showed. I wanted to hit new levels but was way too impatient and not focused enough. Big mistakes and not being able to adapt to the key meetings lowered confidence and motivation.

Looking back now have no regrets on how i traded in my third year, It didnt feel like it at the time but it was definitely my biggest learning curve. I have actually now come to realize that my inability to make more money was because of my trading style, I had peaked as a scalper and my methods had to change, hence the title“Adapt and Survive”! its something you'll hear traders say when your losing your edge..! dont get me wrong i was still making a decent living working very little hours but eventually i would of burnt out.

Im hoping now that im ready to push on and recent results have boosted my confidence in my trading.
I will also be trading football inplay as much as i can this season to try and add another string to the bow.
This blog is for me to keep focused, set targets and try to help out anyone whos trying to crack betting exchange trading.