Swing State Polls are Rigged

After Wednesday night’s smashing debate victory for Mitt Romney, we may expect the national and swing state polls to change in the Republican’s direction. But not by as much as they should. These polls are biased in favor of President Obama and here’s the data to prove it:

From noted Republican pollster John McLaughlin comes a clear and convincing exposÅ½ of the bias of media polls in the swing states of Florida, Ohio and Virginia.

McLaughlin reviewed exit polls in each state for the past four elections. From this data about who actually voted, he found that the party divisions manifest on election day have little to do with the samples upon which the media is basing its polling. And, coincidentally, it is always the Republican vote that tends to be undercounted.

In Florida, for example, McLaughlin finds that the average of the last four elections produced a turnout of 37 percent Democrats and 38 percent Republicans. But here is the partisan distribution of the most recent Florida media polls:

9-26 CBS/NY Times: 36% Dem 27% Rep
9-23 Wash Post 35% Dem 29% Rep

So the media polls reflect a 9 point and six point Democratic edge even though the actual experience of the past four elections has been a 1 point Republican advantage.

Things are no better in Ohio. Here, McLaughlin finds a 2 point Democratic edge in the past four elections (38 percent Democrat, 36 percent Republican). But the media polls show vastly more Democrats and fewer Republicans in their samples: