Friday, October 29, 2010

Hey, it's Friday, so why not. So, say that Lisa Murkowski winds up winning. I have no idea what she'll do once she's back in Washington. My best guess is that she stays GOP, and votes more or less the same way she's always voted, but we really don't have a lot to go on here, and she could do anything from a full Specter flip to returning to the Republicans with a chastened, much more conservative voting record. Who knows?

Ah, but (and here comes the foolish speculation): What if Sarah Palin does run for president? And what if Sarah Palin becomes President of the United States! And, what if she gets into ethics troubles (OK, that part isn't hard to imagine). And what if a Democratic House decides to impeach her -- revenge for Bill Clinton at last! And then we get a partisan trial in the Senate, with most or all Democrats voting to convict, and most Republicans voting to acquit.

Now, if that whole unlikely string of events comes true: what are the odds that Lisa Murkowski votes to convict? 90%? 95%? 99%?

Thank you. This has been an incredibly foolish speculative post. I appreciate your indulgence.

As Kylopod notes, the problem for Murkowski if she wins is that she largely agrees with most of the GOP agenda. I would guess that she'd buck them on some things that are just political attacks on the Dems without substance, but would likely remain in the fold where she is: about the 5th or 6th most liberal Repub.

It would be a fun scenario. But, I don't think any of the assumptions would come to pass (except, as you note, the ethics gaffe Palin commits on day 1)

Murkowski hates Palin and vice versa, sure. But if the unlikely series of events you describe indeed unfolds and Murkowski has the chance to vote to convict Palin, I think it would be extremely unlikely that she would do so. Why? Because she'd be done in Republican politics. It would probably feel good to get revenge on Palin, but not as good as staying in the Senate would feel.

OK, got back from playing ball at lunchtime, and shocked to find three comments here. I'm not sure which is worse: Kylopod for trying to pull the conversation back to reality, or Matt & Geoff for taking the nutty scenario seriously!

But as long as we're doing this...

Matt -- how do we know what she actually believes? And Geoff: is she doesn't win, doesn't that make her believe she's bulletproof? And combined, doesn't that mean she's pretty damn unpredictable?

JB, this will never, ever happen, because there is no way I could ever be lucky enough to see Sarah Palin impeached. I would enjoy it way, way too much for it ever to come to pass.

On the other hand, I (and the rest of the world) would have already suffered the profoundly horrid luck of having a President Palin in the first place, so maybe it would all come out in the wash. But I still believe that a world in which Sharron Angle could well become a US Senator is one in which I will never have the satisfaction of seeing Sarah Palin impeached.

Indulge the fantasy! If the other senators have voted 66-33 to convict, some Republicans would already be included in the yea votes. Then it's goodbye, Sarah! and 100% certain Murkowski would vote to convict.

Has there ever been a potential candidate for president, who went out of the way like this to antagonize a sitting senator of the same party from the same state?

Palin pursues a personal vendetta and ends up supporting a replacement candidate who is wholly unqualified. Where have we heard this story before? This is totally a repeat of the Walt Monegan affair. She fired the state public safety commissioner and the replacement she appointed had to resign after two weeks in office.

There is no possible scenario that results in a Sarah Palin Presidency and a Democratic House of Representatives. And even if there were and the Dem House impeached Palin, Murkowksi would vote to acquit because she's just a generic conservative Republican career politician and that's the only way she could vote and have any chance of beating Joe Miller in the primary in 2016.