CFN's Take: East Carolina vs. Central Florida

Staff Report

10/05/2007

College Football News takes a look at Saturday's contest against Central Florida.

UCF (3-1) at East Carolina
(2-3)
7:30 PM CSTV Why to watch:
Three teams are in the hunt this year
for the Conference USA East crown.
These are two of them. While UCF has
some margin for error, East Carolina
does not thanks to a loss earlier in the
year to Southern Miss, the third team in
the mix. The Pirates delivered a
gut-check win last weekend, going on the
road to outlast Houston, 37-35, with a
little help from the offense and Cougar
kicker T.J. Lawrence. Battle-tested
from a hellacious September schedule,
they’ll be right where they need to be
at the mid-point of the season with
another upset win. UCF has been the
surprise of the conference through the
first month, sporting the league’s best
offense and going toe-to-toe with Texas
three weeks ago in a defining
performance. The Knights’ fast start
has been fueled by junior RB Kevin
Smith, who leads the nation in rushing
and has already scored 10 times. A UCF
win Saturday night could set up a
winner-take-all scenario in the East
when the Knights travel to Hattiesburg
on Oct. 28.

Why UCF might win: Smith has been
playing at a different level this
season, carrying the Knight offense and
wearing out opposing defenses for 178
yards rushing a game. A physical back,
he’ll continue to control the clock and
move the chains against a banged up East
Carolina front seven. UCF sports not
only the league’s top-ranked offense,
but its highest-rated defense as well.
The Knights have been especially frugal
in pass defense, which will present a
big challenge to a 104th-ranked
Pirate offense that’s still bouncing
between Patrick Pinkney and Rob Kass at
quarterback.

Why East Carolina might win:
Numbers lie, especially in September.
Yeah, the Pirates are 72nd
nationally in run defense, but that
includes a beat-down at the hands of
West Virginia, which runs circles on
most of its opponents. Sans that
Mountaineer game, East Carolina has
given up just 100 yards a game on the
ground, a figure that would easily rank
it atop Conference USA. There are still
enough healthy bodies in Greenville to
contain Smith, forcing ineffective QB
Kyle Israel to do more than just hand
the ball off. The Knights lack of
balance or a scary passing game will
allow the Pirates to overcommit to
stopping the run without paying the
consequences.

Who to watch: Israel holds the
key to whether UCF is going to be a
pretender or a bona fide threat to win a
conference championship in 2007. He has
to start giving opposing defenses a
reason not to stack the line order to
gang up on Smith, the Knights’ catalyst
on offense. If the Knights continue to
wallow at the bottom of the league in
passing, George O’Leary won’t hesitate
to give the ball to Michael Greco, a
good all-around athlete with intriguing
upside potential.

What will happen: No stranger to
games decided by a touchdown or less,
East Carolina will get caught in another
tight one that isn’t decided until the
final quarter. UCF will get a late pick
from its seasoned secondary to seal a
second critical win of the year in the
Tar Heel State.