Lyon’s blown save and the perils of too much contact

PHILADELPHIA — Probably somewhere in between Brad Mills’ assessment that the first five hits that Brandon Lyon gave up yesterday weren’t squared up and the unforgiving box score line of 1/3 IP, 6 H, 3 ER, 81.00 ERA in a 5-4 loss to the Phillies, the truth lies.

But that’s the danger of a closer, or any pitcher who does not induce swings and misses. Balls will be hit, and sometimes they will find holes whether smoked or poked.

Brett Myers was the same way in his outing, getting no swings and misses from Phillies hitters until the 80th pitch according to Matt Gelb of the Philadelphia Inquirer. Myers induced weaker contact, which Lyon could not.

Of Lyon’s 30 pitches, the Phillies swung at 15 of them. They got six hits, one popout, seven foul balls and one swing and miss.

When the Astros handed the closer role over from Matt Lindstrom to Lyon, they were going to a more contact-happy pitcher. According to Fangraphs, Lyon gets swings and misses on 8.3 percent of his career pitches, while Lindstrom’s number is 10.7 percent. Jose Valverde’s swing-and-miss percentage, by comparison is 14.1 percent and Brad Lidge’s is 17.2 percent.

In compiling a 3.12 ERA last year, he gave up a batting average on balls in play 22 points lower than his career average, which can intimate a little bit of luck — not extreme but a little bit — which is especially relevant for a low-strikeout closer.

Lyon’s ball tends to find bats, and those balls will then sometimes find holes.

The other big issue that came up in the game, whether Brad Mills needed to have someone warming up in the bullpen, is worth talking about, but it probably plays into the bigger discussion of the closer role.

As Joe Sheehan brought up on Twitter, Ryan Howard is a much better hitter against righties than he is against lefties, and if the situation were in the eighth inning, Brad Mills would have brought in a lefty to face him.

Mills is pretty set on Wilton Lopez as his designated eighth inning man, so I won’t take that literally that he would have brought Fernando Abad in, but why are matchups used early and sacrificed late?

That’s a discussion for another day, free from all the overreaction of Game 1/162.

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Wandy Rodriguez and the Astros take on Cliff Lee and the Phillies tonight at 6:05 p.m. Follow me on Twitter to get the lineups and occasional updates.