The ECRI Weekly Leading Index (WLI) growth rate, which has stayed in a decisive downturn since early 2018, has already fallen to its lowest reading in nearly four years – a 199-week low.

That decline reaffirms its message that there’s no end in sight for the U.S. slowdown. This has been the prescient forecast of the ECRI indexfor the better part of a year, including last spring and summer, when stock prices were scaling new heights.

The original ECRI weekly index – sometimes referred to as the ECRI LEI – was created over 35 years ago by ECRI co-founder Dr. Geoffrey H. Moore, who developed the original index of leading economic indicators more than half a century ago, and gave it to the U.S. government. The WLI is the only publicly-available leading index that led both of the 21st century recessions and recoveries in real time, rather than being back-fitted after the fact.

The immediate question is whether WLI growth will plunge to its worst reading in nearly seven years, which would be an ominous sign for U.S. economic growth prospects.

As always, WLI data remains freely available every Friday at 10:30 am from ECRI’s website.