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Arvest Current Conditions and Consumer Expectations Sub-Indexes

FAYETTEVILLE, Ark. (June 7, 2016) — This section of the Arvest Consumer Sentiment Survey deals with determining the expectations and attitudes of consumers toward current and future personal finances, general business conditions and buying conditions. Data from those questions is tabulated into the Current Conditions Sub-Index and the Consumer Expectations Sub-Index.

Regional Economic Outlook

Respondents were less positive when asked in March if their current financial situation was better or worse than their situation a year ago. The index declined from 106.0 in September to 96.0 in March. However, they were more optimistic about the expected financial situation in a year, as indicated by an index of 126.0 than when they were asked in September.
The survey respondents were more optimistic about the prospects for general business conditions over the next year, but less optimistic about conditions over the next five years than in September. This mixed optimism is reflected in the index of 96.0 for business conditions in a year and 94.0 for business conditions over the next five years. Respondents were quite positive
about buying conditions in the next six months as reflected by the index of 137.0. Overall, regional respondents were slightly more optimistic about the future economic conditions in March than they were in September. The conditions index remained at 90.3 and the consumer expectations index increased to 78.9.

Arkansas

Respondents were less optimistic when asked in March if their current financial situation was better or worse than their situation a year ago. The index dropped from 100.0 in September to 96.0 in March. However, they were much more optimistic when asked about their expected financial situation in a year as indicated by an index of 128.0 than when they were asked in September. The survey respondents were more positive about general business conditions over the next year than about general business conditions in the next five years. The positive responses ware reflected in the March index of 140.0. Overall, respondents from Arkansas were much less pessimistic about the future economic conditions in March than they were in September and they were also more optimistic about their current status. The current conditions index increased to 91.5 in March, while the consumer expectations index increased to 80.7.

Missouri

Respondents were less optimistic when asked in March if their current financial situation was better or worse than their situation a year ago. The index decreased from 109.0 in September to 97.0 in March. They were more optimistic when asked about their expected financial situation in a year, as indicated by an index of 127.0, than when they were asked in September.
Respondents expressed mixed optimism about the outlook for general business conditions over the next year and next five years. This mix was reflected in the March index reading of 94.0 for business conditions in a year and 97.0 for business conditions over the next five years. Respondents were unchanged in their sentiment about buying conditions in the next six months as indicated by an index of 139.0. Missouri respondents were less optimistic about current conditions and slightly more optimistic about future economic conditions. The current condition index decreased to 83.9 and the consumer expectations index increased slightly to 79.3.

Oklahoma

Respondents were less positive when asked in March if their current financial situation was better or worse than their situation a year ago. The index declined from 107.0 in September to 95.0 in March. They were also less optimistic about their expected financial situation in a year than they were in September, indicated by a decrease in the index from 131.0 to 125.0. Respondents were unchanged in their sentiment about the outlook for general business conditions over the next year, indicated by an index of 93.0, but much more pessimistic about the outlook for the next five years as indicated by an index of 91.0. Respondents were more positive about buying conditions in the next six months as reflected by the index of 133.0. Overall, respondents from Oklahoma were more pessimistic about their current status and about future economic conditions in March. The current conditions index decreased to 88.2 while the consumer expectations index decreased to 76.9.

Current Financial Situation Compared with a Year Ago

Better Off

Same

Worse Off

Responses

Sub Index Score

Regional

22%

51%

26%

1,328

96.0

Arkansas

21%

54%

25%

404

96.0

Missouri

23%

50%

26%

513

97.0

Oklahoma

22%

50%

27%

411

95.0

Expected Change in Financial Situation Compared in a Year

Better Off

Same

Worse Off

Responses

Sub Index Score

Regional

38%

50%

12%

1,237

126.0

Arkansas

38%

52%

10%

378

128.0

Missouri

37%

52%

11%

475

127.0

Oklahoma

39%

47%

14%

384

125.0

Expected Change in Business Conditions in a Year

Good Times

Uncertain

Bad Times

Responses

Sub Index Score

Regional

24%

47%

28%

1,261

96.0

Arkansas

28%

44%

28%

376

101.0

Missouri

22%

50%

28%

489

94.0

Oklahoma

23%

47%

30%

396

93.0

Expected Change in Business Conditions in 5 Years

ContinuousGood Times

WidespreadUnemployment

Other

Responses

Sub Index Score

Regional

41%

46%

13%

1,164

94.0

Arkansas

40%

45%

28%

351

96.0

Missouri

43%

46%

11%

447

97.0

Oklahoma

39%

48%

13%

366

91.0

Buying Conditions

Good Times

Mixed -Good & Bad

Bad Times

Responses

Sub Index Score

Regional

53%

31%

16%

1,249

137.0

Arkansas

55%

31%

15%

375

140.0

Missouri

53%

33%

14%

490

139.0

Oklahoma

52%

28%

20%

384

133.0

Personal FinancesSub Index

Business ConditionsSub Index

BuyingConditionsSub Index

CurrentConditionsSub Index

ConsumerExpectationsSub Index

Spring 2016

Current

Expected

12 Months

5 Years

Regional

96.0

126.0

96.0

94.0

137.0

90.3

78.9

Arkansas

96.0

128.0

101.0

96.0

140.0

91.5

80.7

Missouri

97.0

127.0

94.0

97.0

139.0

83.9

79.3

Oklahoma

95.0

125.0

93.0

91.0

133.0

88.2

76.9

Note: Percentages may not equal 100 because of rounding to nearest whole number within the report.

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