Key:
IS =income support
JSA(IB) = jobseeker's allowance (income-based)
PC = pension credit Notes
1. An application may be refused for more than one reason. These tables are based on primary refusal reasons.
2. Numbers of initial refusals have been rounded to the nearest 100. Percentages have been rounded to one decimal place and have been calculated from unrounded numbers. Totals may not sum due to rounding. Source:
DWP Social Fund Policy, Budget and Management Information System.

Social Security Benefits

Chris Grayling:
To ask the Secretary of State for Work and Pensions what estimate he has made of expected (a) on-flows, (b) off-flows and (c) stock claimant numbers for (i) incapacity benefit (credits only), (ii) incapacity benefit (benefits) (iii) severe disablement allowance, (iv) income support and (v) jobseekers allowance in each year to 2019-20. [163511]

Mr. Plaskitt:
The available information is in the tables.

The figures provided are projections that are made as part of the normal process of assessing long-term public finances. As part of this, projections for jobseekers allowance make use of the Treasurys unemployment assumption.

The figures provided in the tables are in line with the cautious and prudent approach to making fiscal projections, where the impact of existing and proposed policies is taken into account once there is robust evidence of their effect, but the impact of new or planned policies is not considered where the evidence is more limited. For example, the incapacity benefits figures include estimates of the impact of the roll-out of Pathways to Work but not the introduction of Employment and Support Allowance.

The figures are not therefore an assessment of the aims or effect of Government strategy in the benefit and employment field.

Notes:
1. Figures are based on published Comprehensive Spending Review 2007 estimates.
2. Figures do not take into account new or planned policies.
3. Figures are projections and are therefore subject to revisions.
4. Figures include estimates of the impact of equalisation of state pension age on incapacity benefit.
5. New flows onto severe disablement allowance ceased from April 2001.
6. Figures for severe disablement allowance include working-age and pensioner claimants.
7. The balance between flows-on and flows-off will not reconcile to year-on-year changes. This is due to the within-year averaging applied to claimant projections.

Projected numbers of claimants of income supportGreat Britain 2006-07 to 2019-20

thousand

Caseload

Flows-on

Flows-off

2007-08

2,128

625

640

2008-09

2,099

608

626

2009-10

2,064

608

624

2010-11

2,051

618

622

2011-12

2,060

623

626

2012-13

2,080

626

627

2013-14

2,092

629

626

2014-15

2,099

633

626

2015-16

2,110

637

626

2016-17

2,124

641

627

6 Dec 2007 : Column 1511W

2017-18

2,144

645

627

2018-19

2,163

649

627

2019-20

2,188

654

628

Notes:
1. Figures are based on published Comprehensive Spending Review 2007 estimates.
2. Figures do not take into account new or planned policies.
3. Figures are projections and are therefore subject to revisions.
4. Figures include estimates of the impact of equalisation of state pension age on income support.
5. The balance between flows-on and flows-off will not reconcile to year-on-year changes. This is due to the within-year averaging applied to claimant projections.
6. The figures for income support will include the majority of the projections for incapacity benefit credits-only.