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Microsoft’s Ballmer on the Future of Media

Okay so – Steve’s crystal ball hasn’t been 100% accurate over the years – neither has BillG’s – but he’s also helped build Microsoft into the giant it is today, despite decades of predicitions of it’s imminent demise, so he must know something. And this is what he said recently about the future of media:

In the next 10 years, the whole world of media, communications and advertising are going to be turned upside down — my opinion.

Here are the premises I have. Number one, there will be no media consumption left in 10 years that is not delivered over an IP network. There will be no newspapers, no magazines that are delivered in paper form. Everything gets delivered in an electronic form.

He also says that he prefers to watch “Lost” for free over the internet with ads in it rather than pay a buck for it on iTunes. And Steve is worth what – $4 Billion? Says a lot about content monetization strategies… or it could just be his desire not to line SteveJ’s pocket.

I tend to agree with Ballmer on this though (as I would, of course). It all needs to go IP. If the big guys don’t do it, it’ll continue the way it’s going – with people doing it for themselves. And they’ve seen the impact that had on the music industry in the last decade – it would be incredibly foolish for the TV and Print folks to make the same mistake.

Hmm I am not sure all print will be out of business in 10 years. Even today there are people in our generation that don’t know how to use computers very well if at all. In 10 yrs they will still only be in mid to late 40’s and unless your gonna go out and teach them all to use computers it isn’t gonna fly.

I agree that online is the way to go but it is gonna take another 20-30 yrs before there is any big drop-off in print media – in my opinion.

Tony, you don’t think that 10 years from now everyone (in the west at least) will have a smartphone? Think about mobile phones in 1998 – mine was a very basic brick. Today (almost) I have an iPhone with 3G. I dare you to imagine the mobile phone of 2018 and what a device like that will do to the way we consume text, video and audio.