Franklin Gutierrez’s Decline in Offensive Production

Following the 2009 season, the Mariners extended centerfielder Franklin Gutierrez with a contract for four years and just over $20 million. 2009 had been his breakout year, after arriving in Seattle in an offseason trade. He played in 153 ballgames, a career high. He batted .283 with 18 homeruns, and a .764 OPS, all the while playing at a gold-glove-level defensively.

Since the first half of 2009, Guti’s numbers have trailed off. Look at his body of work the past three seasons:

1st Half 2009: .295 AVG; .801 OPS; 10 HR

2nd Half 2009: .271 AVG; .727 OPS; 8 HR

1st Half 2010: .256 AVG; .717 OPS; 8 HR

2nd Half 2010: .230 AVG; .601 OPS; 4 HR

1st Half 2011: .187 AVG; .445 OPS; 1 HR

2nd Half 2011: .222 AVG; .560 OPS; 0 HR

Gutierrez’s defense remains fantastic, and his defense was recognized last year, as he received a Gold Glove. But, his offense has floundered now for the better part of the past two seasons. In fact, since June 2010, Gutierrez has just one month where he has batted over .247 (August 2010, he hit .257). And, in 2011, he’s not had a month where he’s hit over .243; in fact, in both June (.176) and July (.190), he batted well below the Mendoza Line, with an OPS below .500.

Last year, Guti missed some time with stomach issues. The Mariners have made efforts to remedy his ailment, but even into early 2011 his stomach continued to plague him, causing him to start this season on the disabled list. He’s lost weight and muscle mass as a result, and his power numbers have suffered as a consequence. He’s homered just once this season (May 25th at Target Field); on top of that, he has only seven extra-base hits all season.

After another 0-4 night tonight, Guti’s 2011 average currently sits at .194. How much longer can the Eric Wedge pencil him into the starting lineup? If he weren’t under contract beyond this season one has to think he’s have been DFA’d by now. Given the circumstances though, the Mariners will make every effort to wait and see if Gutierrez will regain his health and return to his 2009 form.

Gutierrez remains under contract through 2013. In 2012, he will earn $5.5 million; and, in 2013, he will earn $7 million. While the Mariners will hesitate to eat the remainder of his contract, one shouldn’t be surprised to see Guti work himself out of the starting lineup at some point, the same way Chone Figgins did earlier this season—especially if one of the young guys really emerges as a viable alternative. Jack Z has accumulated quite a few outfield prospects, some of whom are comfortable in centerfield. Greg Halman and Trayvon Robinson, two potential centerfielders, despite limited MLB exposure, have shown glimpses of power and defensive competence.

Hopefully, either Guti or one of these youngsters will soon assert himself as an offensive force and unquestioned starting centerfielder.