Abstract

We explore the risk that self-reinforcing feedbacks could push the Earth System toward a planetary threshold that, if crossed, could prevent stabilization of the climate at intermediate temperature rises and cause continued warming on a “Hothouse Earth” pathway even as human emissions are reduced. Crossing the threshold would lead to a much higher global average temperature than any interglacial in the past 1.2 million years and to sea levels significantly higher than at any time in the Holocene. We examine the ...

Abstract

Aerosols have a strong influence on the present climate, but this influence will likely be reduced over the coming decades as air pollution measures are implemented around the world. At a global level, aerosols have helped to reduce the warming effect from greenhouse gas emissions, and necessary reductions in air pollution may thus make it harder to achieve ambitious global climate and environmental aims, such as the Paris Agreement's 2°C target. Furthermore, the local nature of air pollution means that the ...

Abstract

[Excerpt] The hills are hiding a carbon cache. For decades, scientists believed that the erosion of mountains caused carbon dioxide (CO2) in the atmosphere to drop, as silicate rocks newly exposed to rainwater would “weather,” taking up carbon in carbonate minerals that would sluice down rivers and be sequestered on the sea floor. [\n] But a new line of research, published this week in Science, is complicating that picture. A team of scientists has found that, thanks to opportunistic microbes, some mountain ...

Abstract

Attribution studies on recent global warming by Global Climate Model (GCM) ensembles converge in showing the fundamental role of anthropogenic forcings as primary drivers of temperature in the last half century. However, despite their differences, all these models pertain to the same dynamical approach and come from a common ancestor, so that their very similar results in attribution studies are not surprising and cannot be considered as a clear proof of robustness of the results themselves. Thus, here we adopt a ...

Abstract

[Excerpt] Decarbonization of the world’s economy would bring colossal disruption of the status quo. It’s a desire to avoid that change — political, financial and otherwise — that drives many of the climate sceptics. Still, as this journal has noted numerous times, it’s clear that many policymakers who argue that emissions must be curbed, and fast, don’t seem to appreciate the scale of what’s required. [...] [\n] The 2015 Paris agreement gave politicians an answer: negative emissions. Technology to reduce the amount ...

Abstract

Limiting global warming to 1.5 or 2.0°C requires strong mitigation of anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Concurrently, emissions of anthropogenic aerosols will decline, due to coemission with GHG, and measures to improve air quality. However, the combined climate effect of GHG and aerosol emissions over the industrial era is poorly constrained. Here we show the climate impacts from removing present-day anthropogenic aerosol emissions and compare them to the impacts from moderate GHG-dominated global warming. Removing aerosols induces a global mean surface ...

Abstract

Scientists take the bold step of saying phenomena wouldn’t have happened without global warming. [Excerpt] [...] Now, for the first time, climate researchers are reporting that some weather events would have been outright impossible without the warming influence of humanity’s greenhouse-gas emissions. [\n] This kind of confident assertion rarely makes its way into the scientific literature. Yet it appeared in three studies included in a special annual edition of the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society (BAMS) dedicated to attributing the causes of ...

Abstract

Carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from fossil fuels and industry comprise ~90% of all CO2 emissions from human activities. For the last three years, such emissions were stable, despite continuing growth in the global economy. Many positive trends contributed to this unique hiatus, including reduced coal use in China and elsewhere, continuing gains in energy efficiency, and a boom in low-carbon renewables such as wind and solar. However, the temporary hiatus appears to have ended in 2017. For 2017, we project emissions ...

Abstract

Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere – the "global carbon budget" – is important to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe data sets and methodology to quantify the five major components of the global carbon budget and their uncertainties. CO2 emissions from fossil fuels and industry (EFF) are based on energy statistics and cement production ...

Abstract

The Paris Agreement has increased the incentive to verify reported anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions with independent Earth system observations. Reliable verification requires a step change in our understanding of carbon cycle variability. [\n] Emissions of CO2 from fossil fuels and industry did not change from 2014 to 2016, yet there was a record increase in CO2 concentration in the atmosphere. This apparent inconsistency is explained by the response of the natural carbon cycle to the 2015–2016 El Niño event, but it raises ...

Abstract

Increased coal use in China appears to be driving the first increase in global greenhouse-gas output since 2014. [Excerpt] [...] Humanity’s carbon emissions are likely to surge by 2% in 2017, driven mainly by increased coal consumption in China, scientists reported on 13 November. The unexpected rise would end a three-year period in which emissions have remained flat despite a growing global economy. [...] Several factors caused the world’s CO2 emissions to level out from 2014 to 2016, including an economic slowdown ...

Abstract

[Excerpt: Executive summary] [::Policy context] Part of the Paris Agreement is the implementation of a transparency framework to be implemented bottom-up based on the national GHG emission inventories of all Parties reported to the UNFCCC. In addition, 5-yearly global stocktakes are planned from 2023 onwards to monitor emission trends and the efforts of the individual Parties. Reported inventories however neither cover the entire globe, nor the entire time period. The Commission’s in-house Emissions Database for Global Atmospheric Research (EDGAR) estimates anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions for all world countries thereby contributing ...

Abstract

[Significance] Most nations recently agreed to hold global average temperature rise to well below 2 °C. We examine how much climate mitigation nature can contribute to this goal with a comprehensive analysis of “natural climate solutions” (NCS): 20 conservation, restoration, and/or improved land management actions that increase carbon storage and/or avoid greenhouse gas emissions across global forests, wetlands, grasslands, and agricultural lands. We show that NCS can provide over one-third of the cost-effective climate mitigation needed between now and 2030 to stabilize ...

Abstract

The global methane (CH4) budget is becoming an increasingly important component for managing realistic pathways to mitigate climate change. This relevance, due to a shorter atmospheric lifetime and a stronger warming potential than carbon dioxide, is challenged by the still unexplained changes of atmospheric CH4 over the past decade. Emissions and concentrations of CH4 are continuing to increase, making CH4 the second most important human-induced greenhouse gas after carbon dioxide. Two major difficulties in reducing uncertainties come from the large variety ...

Abstract

This paper summarizes the main characteristics of the RCP8.5 scenario. The RCP8.5 combines assumptions about high population and relatively slow income growth with modest rates of technological change and energy intensity improvements, leading in the long term to high energy demand and GHG emissions in absence of climate change policies. Compared to the total set of Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), RCP8.5 thus corresponds to the pathway with the highest greenhouse gas emissions. Using the IIASA Integrated Assessment Framework and the MESSAGE ...

Abstract

The recent Paris UNFCCC climate meeting discussed the possibility of limiting global warming to 2 °C since pre-industrial times, or possibly even 1.5 °C, which would require major future emissions reductions. However, even if climate is stabilised at current atmospheric greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations, those warming targets would almost certainly be surpassed in the context of mean temperature increases over land only. The reason for this is two-fold. First, current transient warming lags significantly below equilibrium or “committed” warming. Second, almost all climate ...

Abstract

In December 2015, member states of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) adopted the Paris Agreement, which aims to hold the increase in the global average temperature to below 2°C and to pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5°C. The Paris Agreement requires that anthropogenic greenhouse gas emission sources and sinks are balanced by the second half of this century. Because some nonzero sources are unavoidable, this leads to the abstract concept of “negative emissions,” the ...

Abstract

[Excerpt] As the climate warms, tiny particles suspended in the atmosphere may have a greater effect than greenhouse gases on increasing the frequency of extreme rain and snowfall. [\n] Greenhouse gases and atmospheric aerosols both drive extreme precipitation, which is expected to increase with climate change. [...] ...

Abstract

Greenhouse gases (GHGs) and aerosols are the two most important anthropogenic forcing agents in the 21st century. The expected declines of anthropogenic aerosols in the 21st century from present-day levels would cause an additional warming of the Earth's climate system, which would aggravate the climate extremes caused by GHG warming. We examine the increased rate of precipitation extremes with global mean surface warming in the 21st century caused by anthropogenic GHGs and aerosols, using an Earth system model ensemble simulation. Similar ...

Abstract

Rain forest fragments in central Amazonia were found to experience a dramatic loss of above-ground tree biomass that is not offset by recruitment of new trees. These losses were largest within 100 meters of fragment edges, where tree mortality is sharply increased by microclimatic changes and elevated wind turbulence. Permanent study plots within 100 meters of edges lost up to 36 percent of their biomass in the first 10 to 17 years after fragmentation. Lianas (climbing woody vines) increased near edges ...

Abstract

List of indexed keywords within the transdisciplinary set of domains which relate to the Integrated Natural Resources Modelling and Management (INRMM). In particular, the list of keywords maps the semantic tags in the INRMM Meta-information Database (INRMM-MiD). [\n] The INRMM-MiD records providing this list are accessible by the special tag: inrmm-list-of-tags ( http://mfkp.org/INRMM/tag/inrmm-list-of-tags ). ...

Abstract

[Summary] Recent analyses of the energy and greenhouse-gas performance of alternative biofuels have ignited a controversy that may be best resolved by applying two simple principles. In a world seeking solutions to its energy, environmental, and food challenges, society cannot afford to miss out on the global greenhouse-gas emission reductions and the local environmental and societal benefits when biofuels are done right. However, society also cannot accept the undesirable impacts of biofuels done wrong. ...

Abstract

Debates about biofuels tend to focus separately on estimates of adverse effects on food security, poverty, and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions driven by land-use change (LUC) (1–4). These estimates often rely on global agriculture and land-use models. Because models differ substantially in their estimates of each of these adverse effects (2, 3, 5), some argue that each individual effect is too uncertain to influence policy (6, 7). Yet these arguments fail to recognize the trade-offs; much of the uncertainty is only ...

Abstract

The quantity of land available to grow biofuel crops without affecting food prices or greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from land conversion is limited. Therefore, bioenergy should maximize land-use efficiency when addressing transportation and climate change goals. Biomass could power either internal combustion or electric vehicles, but the relative land-use efficiency of these two energy pathways is not well quantified. Here, we show that bioelectricity outperforms ethanol across a range of feedstocks, conversion technologies, and vehicle classes. Bioelectricity produces an average of ...

Abstract

Carbon uptake by forestation is one method proposed1 to reduce net carbon dioxide emissions to the atmosphere and so limit the radiative forcing of climate change2. But the overall impact of forestation on climate will also depend on other effects associated with the creation of new forests. In particular, the albedo of a forested landscape is generally lower than that of cultivated land, especially when snow is lying3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, and decreasing albedo exerts a positive radiative ...

Abstract

Drainage of peatlands leads to the decomposition of peat, resulting in substantial losses of carbon and nitrogen to the atmosphere. The conservation and restoration of peatlands can provide a major contribution to the mitigation of climate change. Improvements to guidance and capacity for reporting of greenhouse gas emissions from peatlands will be valuable in the context of the current negotiations towards a post-2012 climate agreement. This article evaluates IPCC approaches to greenhouse gas emissions from managed organic (peat) soils and presents ...

Abstract

Soil compaction is a major disturbance associated with logging, but we lack a fundamental understanding of how this affects the soil microbiome. We assessed the structural resistance and resilience of the microbiome using a high-throughput pyrosequencing approach in differently compacted soils at two forest sites and correlated these findings with changes in soil physical properties and functions. Alterations in soil porosity after compaction strongly limited the air and water conductivity. Compaction significantly reduced abundance, increased diversity, and persistently altered the structure ...

Abstract

Bioenergy from crops is expected to make a considerable contribution to climate change mitigation. However, bioenergy is not necessarily carbon neutral because emissions of CO2, N2O and CH4 during crop production may reduce or completely counterbalance CO2 savings of the substituted fossil fuels. These greenhouse gases (GHGs) need to be included into the carbon footprint calculation of different bioenergy crops under a range of soil conditions and management practices. This review compiles existing knowledge on agronomic and environmental constraints and GHG ...

Abstract

Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from agriculture, including crop and livestock production, forestry and associated land use changes, are responsible for a significant fraction of anthropogenic emissions, up to 30% according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Yet while emissions from fossil fuels are updated yearly and by multiple sources—including national-level statistics from the International Energy Agency (IEA)—no comparable efforts for reporting global statistics for agriculture, forestry and other land use (AFOLU) emissions exist: the latest complete assessment was the ...

Visual summary

Caption: Global emissions for the main agriculture categories, relative to the period 1961–90. Error bars represent 95% confidence intervals, computed using IPCC Guidelines (2006) on uncertainty estimates. The pie chart inset indicates per cent contribution of each category to total emissions from agriculture for the end year 2010.

Abstract

[Excerpt] In order to give certainty to investors and a clear position for international negotiations, the EU is developing a new framework of climate and energy laws for 2030. The recent European Parliament own-initiative report on the 2030 climate and energy targets goes further than the agreement reached by the European Council. A major weakness of the Commission’s assessment of the impact of decarbonisation is that it considers only costs, and fail to account for the benefits of climate and energy policies. WWF believes it is not ...

European Commission, 2014. Commission staff working document impact assessment: Accompanying the document Communication from the Commission to the European Parliament, the Council, the European Economic and Social Committee and the Committee of the Regions A policy framework for climate and energy in the period from 2020 up to 2030. http://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/ALL/?uri=CELEX:52014SC0015

Abstract

[Significance] Conversion to urban landforms has consequences for regional climate and the many inhabitants living within the built environment. The purpose of our investigation was to explore hydroclimatic impacts of 21st century urban expansion across the United States and examine the efficacy of commonly proposed urban adaptation strategies in context of long-term global climate change. We show that, in the absence of any adaptive urban design, urban expansion across the United States imparts warming over large regional swaths of the country ...

Abstract

Human emissions of greenhouse gasses and related warming have been shown to be an influence on global and regional warming and on broad-scale precipitation changes. But so far, assessing the human imprint on specific weather events has proven difficult. Now, publicly contributed climate simulations are used to show that increased greenhouse gas emissions substantially increased the risk of flood occurrence during the catastrophic 2000 England and Wales floods. ...

Abstract

Climate change policies must trade off uncertainties about future warming, about the social and ecological impacts of warming, and about the cost of reducing greenhouse gas emissions. We show that laxer carbon targets produce broader distributions for climate damages, skewed towards severe outcomes. However, if potential low-carbon technologies fill overlapping niches, then more stringent carbon targets produce broader distributions for the cost of reducing emissions, skewed towards high-cost outcomes. We use the technology-rich GCAM integrated assessment model to assess the ...

Abstract

The estimation of past and future forest carbon (C) dynamics in European countries is a challenging task due to complex and varying silvicultural systems, including uneven-aged forest management, and incomplete inventory data time series. In this study, we tested the use of the Carbon Budget Model of the Canadian Forest Sector (CBM-CFS3) in Italy, a country exemplifying most of these challenges. Our objective was to develop estimates of forest carbon budgets of the Forest Management area (including all forests existing in ...

Abstract

Introduction. This chapter provides methods for estimating greenhouse gas emissions and removals due to changes in biomass, dead organic matter and soil organic carbon on Forest Land and Land Converted to Forest Land . It builds on the Revised 1996 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories ( 1996 IPCC Guidelines ) and the Good Practice Guidance for Land Use, La nd-Use Change and Forestry ( GPG-LULUCF ). The chapter: • addresses all five carbon pools identified in Chapter 1 and ...

Abstract

Growing arboreous and herbaceous species for energetic conversion allows to reduce fossil fuel consumption and greenhouse gases emissions. Moreover, new energetic crops can provide an innovative source of income for agriculture, a sector highly sustained by subsidies in Italy and in the EU. In this paper we propose a methodology to assess energetic potentialities of short rotation forestry at regional scale. The method is based on the integration of GIS data with data derived from the agricultural census that describe current ...

This page of the database may be cited as: Integrated Natural Resources Modelling and Management - Meta-information Database. http://mfkp.org/INRMM/tag/ghg

Publication metadata

Meta-information Database (INRMM-MiD).
This database integrates a dedicated meta-information database in CiteULike (the CiteULike INRMM Group) with the meta-information available in Google Scholar, CrossRef and DataCite. The Altmetric database with Article-Level Metrics is also harvested. Part of the provided semantic content (machine-readable) is made even human-readable thanks to the DCMI Dublin Core viewer. Digital preservation of the meta-information indexed within the INRMM-MiD publication records is implemented thanks to the Internet Archive.
The library of INRMM related pubblications may be quickly accessed with the following links.

Go to the INRMM Group in CiteULike. In this dedicated database editors may submit changes to the meta-information (login required). Inquiries may be sent to inrmm(at)maieutike.org.

Search within the whole INRMM meta-information database:

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Full-text and abstracts of the publications indexed by the INRMM meta-information database are copyrighted by the respective publishers/authors. They are subject to all applicable copyright protection. The conditions of use of each indexed publication is defined by its copyright owner. Please, be aware that the indexed meta-information entirely relies on voluntary work and constitutes a quite incomplete and not homogeneous work-in-progress.
INRMM-MiD was experimentally established by the Maieutike Research Initiative in 2008 and then improved with the help of several volunteers (with a major technical upgrade in 2011). This new integrated interface is operational since 2014.