Uzbekistan Shaken by Unrest, Violence and Uncertainty

By C. J. CHIVERS; Steven Lee Myers contributed reporting from Moscow for this article, and Yola Monakhov from Tashkent, Uzbekistan.

Published: May 16, 2005

Skirmishing between armed Uzbeks and troops along Uzbekistan's border with Kyrgyzstan persisted Sunday, news agencies reported, as uncertainty grew about the circumstances and extent of bloodshed on Friday when the government suppressed a mass demonstration by force.

Reports of the number of deaths since the violence began varied widely, from dozens to hundreds of civilians. The Associated Press reported that residents of the village of Tefektosh had said the latest clashes left several soldiers dead. Uzbekistan's president, Islam A. Karimov, said Saturday that 10 government soldiers and ''many more rebels'' had been killed.

None of the reports could be verified, and it was difficult to determine who was fighting, and with what ambitions, although in addition to elements of a general uprising against a repressive government, armed and newly freed inmates were in the area of strife. Telephone service has been intermittent, and the Uzbek government has forced many journalists to leave.

Uzbekistan, a predominantly Sunni Muslim republic of 25 million people, has been enveloped in uncertainty since late last week, when armed men stormed a prison in the Ferghana Valley to release a group of demonstrators they regarded as being unjustly tried.

The attack on the prison released as many as 2,000 inmates and turned into a mass demonstration in Andijon. The protesters were dispersed, according to accounts by journalists and witnesses, when soldiers and armored vehicles fired on the crowd.

Disorder has ensued since, although reports on Sunday indicated that for at least one day the area was calmer. There were also reports, however, suggesting that the government had lost control of parts of the country's northeastern border.

Criticism of both sides from abroad was reminiscent of the cold war. Britain's foreign secretary, Jack Straw, told the BBC, ''There has been a clear abuse of human rights, a lack of democracy and a lack of openness.'' Russia's foreign minister, Sergey V. Lavrov, compared the uprising to ''a Taliban-style provocation,'' according to RIA Novosti, Russia's state news agency.

The unrest and violence have tested Mr. Karimov, a former Communist Party official who has ruled Central Asia's most populated republic with an iron grip since the Soviet Union disintegrated.

As journalists in the region reported that hundreds and perhaps thousands of Uzbeks moved toward and across the Kyrgyz border, at risk was the stability of the heart of Central Asia, already buffeted by an underdeveloped economy, ecological decline, a resurgence of Islam, a recent revolution in Kyrgyzstan and the conflicting pulls of China, Russia and the United States.

Mr. Karimov, an inaccessible and aloof autocrat, has long been criticized for persecution of opponents, intolerance of freedom of religion and expression, and the use of the police and torture, including the sexual assault and boiling of suspects.

His control had been almost absolute. He was last re-elected in 2000, with 91.7 percent of the vote, an election generally regarded as fixed.

His style has also fueled worries about the government's conduct. The reported violence over the past three days, emerging from a near information vacuum, has been chilling in part because Mr. Karimov has long made clear that in maintaining order, he has a high tolerance for blood.

''I am prepared to rip off the heads of 200 people, to sacrifice their lives, in order to save peace and calm in the republic,'' he told reporters in 1999, after a bus hijacking ended with a shootout that left nine people dead. ''If my child chose such a path, I myself would rip off his head.''

Mr. Karimov also has strengthened his relationship with the United States, as the interests of two nations have increasingly intertwined.

Hardened elements of his opposition, the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan, collaborated with Al Qaeda and trained in camps in Afghanistan. After the attacks in the United States in 2001, the Karimov government presented itself as a Bush administration partner in counterterrorism efforts, and the Pentagon opened a base in southern Uzbekistan.

There has also been evidence that the United States has used the country for interrogations of terrorist suspects seized elsewhere.

Nonetheless, signs of strain in the relationship have emerged since 2003, as uprisings have toppled corrupt post-Soviet governments in Georgia, Ukraine and Kyrgyzstan, isolating the Uzbek president.

Mr. Karimov, speaking at a news conference on Saturday as journalists reported seeing blood-stained streets and full morgues, made an oblique but unmistakable reference to American interference.

''Attempts by some countries to plant democracy in Central Asia can be used by a third force,'' he said, according to RIA Novosti. He added, ''This force is radical Islam.''

Mr. Karimov routinely labels enemies militant Islamists, and blamed Islamic political and militant groups for the latest violence. Human Rights Watch, based in New York, said Sunday that his position had raised concern he would repress all opponents, including human rights defenders, labeling them Islamic extremists.