That's not the full story, though. Because of errors in polling, or a strong Get Out The Vote operation on either side, the polls could be off by a number of points in either direction.

To figure out what that could mean either way, here is a sensitivity analysis showing what the map looks like if the polls are off in the states by different margins.

First, see what the map looks like if Mitt Romney outperforms the polling by five points in every state. Clicking through, check out what happens as that performance slows to a four point beat and so on. Then, see the what happens if Obama incrementally outperforms the polls.

Recommended For You

Comments

The Bleachers

The talking heads at Fox Noise are predicting a land slide victory for Romney. When Obama wins by a small margin, they will claim "MASSIVE VOTER FRAUD!!". Then, they can call Obama an "ILLEGITIMATE PRESIDENT". They will claim that they can legally obstruct every thing he wants to do in his second term. And this will include preventing any extension of the debt ceiling, which will immediately lead to default and bankruptcy of the entire country..
AND, THEY WILL BLAME IT ALL ON THE "ILLEGITIMATE PRESIDENT".
If there is anything left of the smoldering ashes, they will be take over and try to rebuild it in 2016. They only want to win.....NO MATTER WHO THEY HAVE TO DESTROY IN THE PROCESS!! REPUBLICANS ARE POLITICAL SUICIDE BOMBERS!