07 December 2008

Why Kyoto will fail

From New Scientist:

Our new-found love for flat-screen TVs could come back to haunt us. Earlier this year, researchers warned that the growing popularity of this technology was releasing increasing amounts of a powerful greenhouse gas into the atmosphere. Now, researchers say levels of the gas are four times as high as previously estimated, and warn they are rising "quasi-exponentially". Nitrogen trifluoride (NF3) is 17,000 times more effective at warming the atmosphere than an equal mass of carbon dioxide. Yet the Kyoto protocol does not set limits on NF3 emissions because it was made in tiny amounts when the protocol was agreed in 1997. Warm glow of TV, 'New Scientist', 1 November

There we have it. Kyoto does not aim to reduce the rate of climate change. It does not even aim to reduce anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. It is concerned solely with reducing those gases that were throught to be greenhouse gases at the time it was devised. A Climate Stability Bond regime would be a big improvement. If we want a more stable climate, then we should reward people who help us achieve one however they do so. Our scientific knowledge is rapidly expanding. We cannot rely even on today's science to tell us what will be the best ways of stabilising the climate throughout the necessarily long time it will take us to do so. Relying on 1990s science, as Kyoto does, is even worse.

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Social Policy Bonds

See the Social Policy Bonds website for overviews and links to articles, papers, news and more about Social Policy Bonds. Click on the image below to download a 2400-word article, published by the Institute of Economic Affairs, London.

Social Policy Bonds in 2400 words

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Social Policy Bonds in the media

9 October 2015: An article by Greg Bearup on the genesis of the Social Policy Bond idea, and application of a version of it in Australia appears in the Weekend Australian Magazine. (The article can also be downloaded as a pdf from here.)

October 2013: Professor Robert Shiller of Yale University, is named as one of the three winners of the 2013 Nobel Prize in Economics. His Nobel Prize lecture (pdf) delivered on 8 December, mentions Social Policy Bonds. Professor Shiller has for many years encouraged my work on Social Policy Bonds, beginning in late 1996 when he sent me this letter.

3 May 2012: An audio talk by Nobel Prize winner Professor Robert Shiller at the London School of Economics, in which Social Policy Bonds are briefly mentioned, is available here.