A blog mostly about hockey economics. Sometimes other sports and stuff.

Wednesday, January 4, 2012

NFL Playoffs 1st Round Predictions

Here are my predictions for the 2011/12 NFL playoffs. By my best guess, the Steelers and Saints win each by at least 10 points, while the Texans and Giants win close games. There was about 10 minutes of mathematical analysis involved in these forecasts, on top of about 15 minutes worth of research. I also listened the the Bill Simmons Mega Playoffs Podcasts. If you don't subscribe to the BS Report (for free), you should.

Saints beat Lions 34 - 24

As a Lions fan it sucks that they have to play the Saints in their first playoff game in over a decade. This will be the highest scoring game of the weekend with the biggest question marks being; can the Lions pass rush get to and disrupt Drew Brees, and can the Saints contain Calvin Johnson?

Texans beat Bengals 20 - 17

Houston has been plagued by injuries, but I'm sorry, I just can't take the Bengals in the post season. Yes Cincy has been a far better team than many would have predicted and Andy Dalton has a future in this league. But it is the Bungles! That being said, Jake Delhomme could play in this game and he's not someone I'm excited picking to win in the playoffs.

Steelers beat Broncos 21 - 10

Losing Mendenhall ensures that Pittsburgh will not win the Super Bowl, or even make it to the Super Bowl. But Big Ben will make plays down field and the Pit D will rock Tebow. I don't know how you bet against the Steelers in this game, even with injuries. Over the course of the season, the Broncos gave up 81 more points than they scored. It is almost a wonder that they even managed to finish 8-8. They put up a winning streak against a string of non-playoff teams.

Giants beat Falcons 27 - 24

I predict this game will have the closest score of the weekend, but that Eli Manning will defeat Matt Ryan. The Giants had the toughest schedule in the league and Eli has shown that he can make it happen when it matters. If Atlanta wins, Roddy White will be the MVP.