Cubs' lack of production from leadoff spot an early-season concern

After Ben Zobrist was scratched from the top of the lineup Tuesday night because of lower-back stiffness, Cubs manager Joe Maddon wasn’t sure about the severity of the injury to his valuable veteran.

But with each sputtering performance from the leadoff spot, the need for more production at the top of the order becomes more pressing.

Acquiring pitching over the winter understandably took a priority with the departures of starters Jake Arrieta and John Lackey and the need to retool a weathered bullpen that endured three consecutive deep postseason runs.

The thought was the Cubs could sustain a productive offense despite not having a truly experienced leadoff hitter because they manufactured 822 runs in 2017 — second most in the National League — even with the loss of Dexter Fowler to free agency.

They still could survive, but the lack of production elsewhere in the lineup puts more focus on the top spot, particularly because the production of No. 2 hitter Kris Bryant and No. 8 hitter Javier Baez isn’t fully maximized.

There is a danger in extending Zobrist, 36, too far. He missed the first two weeks of spring training because of back stiffness. And last season he tolerated a sore left wrist two weeks longer than necessary during the team’s June malaise before eventually being placed on the disabled list.

After a hot start to begin his Cubs career in 2016, Zobrist moved to the leadoff spot in late June when Fowler was sidelined with a hamstring injury that took four weeks longer to heal than originally announced.

Zobrist’s batting average dropped 48 points in Fowler’s absence, but never was his experience and value as important as it was in the playoffs. He had a key bunt single in Game 4 of the National League Championship Series against the Dodgers and a tiebreaking double in the 10th inning of Game 7 of the World Series against the Indians.

“We just have to get him back controlling the strike zone,” Maddon said Tuesday after Happ replaced Zobrist but went hitless with three strikeouts in a 5-3 loss to the Cardinals. “That’s the first step.”

Maddon gave Kyle Schwarber one month last season before moving him out of the leadoff spot. Schwarber took a called third strike to end Tuesday’s game, but he’s not chasing pitches out of the strike zone as frequently as he did last year and has a .352 on-base percentage.

This is not to suggest Schwarber should be considered a leadoff candidate, but it is evidence that improvement can occur in baby steps.

Cubs leadoff hitters own a .312 on-base percentage that ranks eighth in the NL and is 21 points below the league average. That’s slightly worse than the .324 from last year, but there’s time to improve with more than five months of the season left.

The Cubs value Happ and Schwarber more than teams that were interested in trading young starting pitching over the winter, so the price to acquire a leadoff hitter could be steep.

That leaves them with their fingers crossed on both hands — one for Zobrist’s health and the other for someone — perhaps Albert Almora Jr. and his .421 on-base percentage in 19 plate appearances from the top spot this season — to take the job and run with it.