Spend money: Consumers tend to do just that. And lately they've been at
it wholeheartedly. Chain store sales rose 1.3% last week (1.7% y/y) and the
increase lifted early-March spending 1.5% above the February average. The
year-to-year increase fell, however, to a lessened 1.7% due to strength
this time last year. During the last ten years there has been a 72%
correlation between the y/y change in chain store sales and the change in
retail sales at general merchandise stores. That correlation recently has
increased.

General merchandise store sales account for 15% of total retail sales.
The ICSC-Goldman Sachs retail chain-store sales
index is constructed using the same-store sales (stores open for one year)
reported by 78 stores of seven retailers: Dayton Hudson, Federated, Kmart,
May, J.C. Penney, Sears and Wal-Mart.

Prospects for further spending improvement look good. The leading
indicator of chain store sales rose 0.2% w/w in the latest period.
Moreover, year-to-year improvement rose to 3.3% from the slight decline
last fall. The composite leading economic indicator is compiled from four
series: (1) The MBA's volume index of mortgage applications for home
purchase, (2) the ABC News/Money magazine's survey of consumer buying
conditions, (3) new filings for jobless benefits, and (4) the 30-year
government bond yield.