wxman57 wrote:It does look quite impressive on satellite now. Perhaps even has an LLC forming. Maybe we can get 2-3 advisories out of it before it moves inland into Mexico tomorrow? Have to watch those storms named Humberto in the Gulf. Sometimes they surprise you.

The last Humberto was our "stealth" hurricane! No hurricane warnings......just a tiny hurricane who's tiny eye came over our house! Keep an eye out for sure!!

Humberto was a strong tropical storm at this point already, but this one is getting its act together

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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

A 1011 MB LOW IS NEAR 22N95W IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 26N96W TO THE LOW CENTER TO 17N93W. SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS STILL POSSIBLE...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM BEFORE THE LOW MOVES INLAND ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO ON FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. REGARDLESS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION...HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST OF THE MEXICAN STATES OF VERACRUZ AND TAMAULIPAS THROUGH FRIDAY. PRESENTLY CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE OVER THE W GULF W OF 90W.

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there is actually a fair amount of convection near the coast which is close to where the center is. Models never showed development with this in the first place either.

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No, I don't see this developing either. Just look at its proximity to the coast, compared to its poor organisation. For this to fully spin up, it would probably need another day or so in my opinion. If it rapidly organises, the most I see out of this is a brief depression characteristic of this season.

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Wow -- thanks for posting that, TeamPlayersBlue! I remember that day and how amazed and confounded everybody was as it transformed itself without missing a beat. Heh -- that head fake to the west was particularly inconsiderate of the thing, too.

Amazing loop...

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A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO LOCATED ALITTLE LESS THAN A HUNDRED MILES EAST OF TAMPICO IS MOVINGWESTWARD. THIS SYSTEM IS ACCOMPANIED BY A LARGE BUT DISORGANIZEDAREA OF CLOUDINESS AND A FEW SQUALLS. ALTHOUGH THE SYSTEM ISALREADY APPROACHING LAND...A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM BEFORETHE LOW MOVES INLAND ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO LATER THIS MORNING.THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING ATROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUMCHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THENEXT 5 DAYS. REGARDLESS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION...HEAVY RAINAND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE SPREADING ALONG THE COAST OF THE MEXICANSTATES OF VERACRUZ AND TAMAULIPAS TODAY.

BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE W GULF OF MEXICO IS ANALYZED AS A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 25N97W THROUGH A WEAK 1012 MB LOW NEAR 23N97W TO 20N95W. HOWEVER...DATA FROM AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT LATE THIS AFTERNOON INDICATED IT DID NOT HAVE A WELL-DEFINED CENTER OF CIRCULATION. SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS STILL POSSIBLE AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM BEFORE THE LOW MOVES INLAND ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO ON FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE SPREADING ALONG THE COAST OF THE MEXICAN STATES OF VERACRUZ AND TAMAULIPAS TODAY. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 20N-26N W OF 92W TO INLAND OVER MEXICO.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO LOCATED ALITTLE LESS THAN A HUNDRED MILES EAST OF TAMPICO IS MOVINGWESTWARD. THIS SYSTEM IS ACCOMPANIED BY A LARGE BUT DISORGANIZEDAREA OF CLOUDINESS AND A FEW SQUALLS. ALTHOUGH THE SYSTEM ISALREADY APPROACHING LAND...A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM BEFORETHE LOW MOVES INLAND ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO LATER THIS MORNING.THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING ATROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUMCHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THENEXT 5 DAYS. REGARDLESS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION...HEAVY RAINAND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE SPREADING ALONG THE COAST OF THE MEXICANSTATES OF VERACRUZ AND TAMAULIPAS TODAY.

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Wow -- thanks for posting that, TeamPlayersBlue! I remember that day and how amazed and confounded everybody was as it transformed itself without missing a beat. Heh -- that head fake to the west was particularly inconsiderate of the thing, too.

Amazing loop...

Welcome! I hate to toot my horn but i remember looking at it and saying it would develop quickly. The whole system had a nice spin to it and the convection wasnt only on one side of the low in the beginning. 31C water helps too!

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1. UPDATED...SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT SHOWER ACTIVITYASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE AREA CENTERED NEAR TAMPICO MEXICOHAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. ALTHOUGHTHIS SYSTEM IS STILL EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND BEFORE A TROPICALCYCLONE CAN FORM...IT IS LIKELY TO BRING 3 TO 5 INCHES OFRAINFALL...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 8 INCHES...IN THEMEXICAN STATES OF VERACRUZ AND TAMAULIPAS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OFDAYS. WINDS TO NEAR TROPICAL STORM FORCE ARE ALSO EXPECTED IN AFEW SQUALLS TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICALCYCLONE DURING THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.

SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE LOWPRESSURE AREA NEAR TAMPICO MEXICO HAS SLOWED ITS FORWARD MOVEMENTDURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. THIS HAS ALLOWED IT TO STAY OVER WATERAND BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION ADVISORYWILL BE ISSUED IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGHCHANCE...100 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THENEXT 48 HOURS...AND A HIGH CHANCE...100 PERCENT...OF BECOMING ATROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT FIVE DAYS. THE SYSTEM IS LIKELYTO BRING 3 TO 5 INCHES OF RAINFALL...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTSOF UP TO 8 INCHES...IN THE MEXICAN STATES OF VERACRUZ ANDTAMAULIPAS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WINDS TO NEAR TROPICALSTORM FORCE ARE ALSO EXPECTED IN A FEW SQUALLS TODAY AND TONIGHT.

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