*[[United States House of Representatives elections in Alaska, 2014|Alaska]]

*[[United States House of Representatives elections in Alaska, 2014|Alaska]]

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***{{reddot}} [[Texas' 23rd Congressional District elections, 2014|District 23]]: [[Francisco Canseco]] and [[Will Hurd]] defeated [[Robert Lowry]] and will face off again in May.

***{{reddot}} [[Texas' 23rd Congressional District elections, 2014|District 23]]: [[Francisco Canseco]] and [[Will Hurd]] defeated [[Robert Lowry]] and will face off again in May.

***{{reddot}} [[Texas' 36th Congressional District elections, 2014|District 36]]: [[Brian Babin]] and [[Ben Streusand]] defeated ten other competitors for the open seat left by Rep. [[Steve Stockman]]'s run for [[U.S. Senate]]

***{{reddot}} [[Texas' 36th Congressional District elections, 2014|District 36]]: [[Brian Babin]] and [[Ben Streusand]] defeated ten other competitors for the open seat left by Rep. [[Steve Stockman]]'s run for [[U.S. Senate]]

A total of 471 seats in the U.S. Congress (36 Senate seats, including three special elections, and all 435 House seats) are up for election on November 4, 2014.

The best-case scenario for those who believe the November 4, 2014, general election will be a backlash against the Obama Administration’s Affordable Care Act is that Republicans assume control of both chambers of the U.S. Congress. The GOP currently has a 17-seat lead in the House of Representatives. Democrats outnumber Republicans, 53-45, in the U.S. Senate (with two Independents in the mix).[1][2][3]

Heading into the election, Democrats control the U.S. Senate while Republicans are the majority in the U.S. House. For Republicans to take the majority in the Senate, they need to take six seats currently held by Democrats and retain control of the 14 seats currently held by a Republican. For Democrats to take majority control of the U.S. House, a pick up of 17 seats is needed.[4]

As of March 2015, six incumbent senators and 42 representatives have announced they are not seeking re-election. Additionally, three senators and six representatives left office early.

U.S. Senate

The 33 Class II U.S. Senate seats are up for election. Of those 33 seats, 20 are currently held by Democrats and 13 by Republican senators. Additionally, three special elections will take place in 2014 to fill vacancies that occurred during the 113th Congress (Hawaii, Oklahoma and South Carolina). All three of these special elections will also take place on November 4, 2014, for a total of 36 Senate elections.

For Republicans to gain control of the Senate, they will need to pick up six seats currently held by Democrats and maintain control of all Republican seats up for re-election. Unfortunately for Democratic incumbents, seven of their seats up in 2014 are in states carried by Republican Mitt Romney in the 2012 presidential election. Those states are: Alaska, Arkansas, Louisiana, Montana, South Dakota and West Virginia. If the Affordable Care Act (also known as Obamacare) remains a major issue heading into the midterm elections, Democrats face an uphill battle for the current blue seats in red states.[5]

Open seats

As of March 2015, six senators have announced they are not running for re-election in 2014. In addition to the following list, four senators left office early: Max Baucus (D-MA), John Kerry (D-MA), Jim DeMint (R-SC) and Tom Coburn (R-OK). The deaths of Sens. Daniel Inouye (D-HI) and Frank Lautenberg (D-NJ), and the early resignation of Coburn, will necessitate three special elections to be held with the 33 regular elections on November 4, 2014.

This map shows the Senate seats up for election in 2014. The red and blue colors indicate whether the seat is currently held by a Republican or a Democrat, respectively.

Race ratings

Washington Post

For the 2014 election cycle, The Washington Post released periodic lists of the 10 Senate seats (or 11, with this recent edition) most in danger of changing control in 2014. Their August 2014 rankings are below, along with their April ranking of the race in parentheses:[6]

11. Georgia: "Businessman David Perdue's (R) primary runoff win over Rep. Jack Kingston means he faces off against Democrat Michelle Nunn. Most recent polling shows Perdue with a slight edge, but the National Republican Senatorial Committee just launched a multimillion-dollar ad campaign here. Clearly, they see Nunn as a real threat, despite Georgia's continued GOP lean (it's turning purple more slowly than most people think). (Previous ranking: 10) (Previous ranking: 10)"[6]

10. Colorado: "Sen. Mark Udall (D-Colo.), after some uncertainty, announced last month that he would oppose ballot measures, pushed by Rep. Jared Polis (D-Colo.), that were aimed at cracking down on fracking. Eventually, the measures were scrapped anyways, but the decision was somewhat surprising from a senator who has often aligned with environmentalists. Democrats fretted rather openly about the measures hurting Udall on the ballot in November. Rep. Cory Gardner (R), though, remains an underdog. (Previous ranking: 9)"[6]

9. Kentucky: "The Democrats' best shot at a pickup might be in the Bluegrass State, where polling continues to show one of the tightest races in the country. Despite this, though, election models of 2014 have Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) as a strong favorite over Democrat Alison Lundergan Grimes – in large part because the state is so red. FiveThirtyEight says McConnell has an 80 percent shot to win, and the Post pegs his chances even better than that. We'll see if those models are accurate. (Previous ranking: 7)"[6]

8. Alaska: "The big news Friday was that Joe Miller, the 2010 GOP nominee with strong tea party ties, said that he would support the GOP nominee and not run a third-party campaign if he lost the primary Aug. 19. Anything other than a win by former state attorney general Dan Sullivan in that primary would be a pretty big surprise, and Miller's assurance has got to make Republicans breathe a little easier. But Sen. Mark Begich (D) is doing a lot of things right (Previous ranking: 8)"[6]

7. Iowa: "A recent Roll Call story by Alexis Levinson captured the state of this open seat race nicely: State Sen. Joni Ernst (R) moved through the Iowa State Fair doing a lot of hugging — both people she knew and people she didn't. Democratic Rep. Bruce Braley, meanwhile, delivered a dry policy address from the fair's legendary soapbox. Ernst is clearly the candidate with the momentum in this race but, as Levinson noted, Braley might be more closely aligned to the preferred policies of the electorate. (Previous ranking: N/A)"[6]

6. North Carolina: "Senate Democrats' campaign arm just dropped a stunning $9.1 million into a new advertising campaign here, reinforcing that this is the race to watch this fall. It's the least conservative of the four Romney states where Democrats are running for reelection. If Sen. Kay Hagan (D) can hold on to her seat, Democrats give themselves some critical breathing room in the battle for the majority. If state House Speaker Thom Tillis wins (R), the GOP path to the majority becomes much wider. (Previous ranking: 5)"[6]

5. Arkansas: "Rep. Tom Cotton (R) has led the last six public polls of this race — all by between two and four points. Shortly before that, an NBC News/Marist poll incredibly showed Sen. Mark Pryor (D) ahead by 11. We tend to think this is a pretty pure toss-up right now. (Previous ranking: 6)"[6]

4. Louisiana: "It seems likely no one will clear 50 percent threshold in the all-party primary and that Sen. Mary Landrieu (D) will face a runoff against Rep. Bill Cassidy (R-La.) on Dec. 6. Just imagine the November frenzy in the Bayou State if the Senate majority ends up riding on the outcome. (Previous ranking: 4)"[6]

3. West Virginia: "It seems more and more like Montana and South Dakota are lost causes for Democrats. But West Virginia's not there yet. The Democratic super PAC Senate Majority PAC recently bought broadcast advertising time there, and Secretary of State Natalie Tennant (D) has run a surprisingly strong campaign. That doesn't mean she's going to upset Rep. Shelley Moore Capito (R). It just means West Virginia's not a done deal. (Previous ranking: 2)"[6]

2. Montana: "The decision by Walsh not to seek a full term this fall in the wake of revelations about plagiarism takes an already-difficult race and makes it virtually impossible for Democrats. Democrats will decide on their nominee at a special state convention this weekend. Freshman state Rep. Amanda Curtis seems like the likeliest pick and cuts a very interesting profile. But this race is probably a lost one for Democrats, and Rep. Steve Daines (R) is the heavy favorite to be the next senator. (Previous ranking: 3)"[6]

1. South Dakota: "The good news for Democrat Rick Weiland: Former GOP senator Larry Pressler is pulling nearly one-fifth of the vote as an independent. The bad news: Pressler has raised just $50,000 for the campaign, self-funding another $50,000. As we’ve written before, third-party candidates with little chance of winning tend to see their vote totals fall off at the end. Former governor Mike Rounds (R) is still the big favorite unless something changes in a major way. (Previous ranking: 1)"[6]

August 2013

An August 2013 Politico report reported that the 27 incumbents running for re-election in 2014 had together raised about $125 million by the end of June 2013.[21] The report also found that 2014 had the potential to be the most expensive midterm election to date, pointing to the fact that the total amount raised for incumbents seeking re-election is $30 million more than at the same point in 2012 and on par with the amount they had raised in 2010.[21]

DSCC and NRSC

Fundraising numbers

September 2014

The DSCC raised $16 million in September, while the NRSC was on their heels with $15.5. Both organizations had the highest September hauls in the organizations' histories.[23]

July 2014

The DSCC had its strongest second quarter in organization history, raising $21.7 million during the quarter. As of July 2014, the DSCC had raised $70.3 million in the 2014 cycle, while the NRSC had raised $68.6 million in 2014.[24]

April 2014

The DSCC outraised the NRSC, $6.3 million to $6.04 million. In April, the DSCC ended the month with $25 million on hand, while the NRSC had $21.9 million in the bank. Both organizations remained debt-free.[25]

October 2013

The DSCC outraised their GOP counterpart, the NRSC, by one million dollars in October 2013. The DSCC raised $4.8 million compared to the NRSC's $3.8 million. This was the organization's best off-year October in their history.

At that time, the DSCC had raised $14 million more than the NRSC, a total of $43.5 million raised. They reported $11.1 million cash on hand. However, the organization was also carrying $6.2 million in debt. The NRSC had $5 million cash on hand at the end of October 2013.[26]

July 2013 memo

In July 2013, NRSC president, Rob Collins, circulated a memo to top donors outlining the path to a majority in the Senate for the Republican Party.
From the memo:

"Montana now joins West Virginia and South Dakota as the third red-state where Democrats have not only failed to land their top candidates, but to recruit a candidate capable of winning a general election matchup."

Collins reiterated that Republicans needed to win just three seats in states with incumbent Democratic senators.[27]

U.S. House

Democrats are hoping to survive a possible referendum on the Obama Administration’s Affordable Care Act and not lose further ground in the Republican-dominated U.S. House of Representatives during the November 4, 2014 general election. All 435 seats of the U.S. House are up for election.

Battleground study

The purple districts on the Census district map are those found to be competitive in Ballotpedia's study.

Five criteria

A district must have met one or more of the following criteria:

1. If a district had all six quantifiable predictions/results highlighted (Cook, Fairvote, MOV, 2012 presidential, 2008 presidential, and incumbent years in office) and four were of the most competitive nature, purple, they automatically made the cut.

Nineteen districts fit in this category.

2. The district was considered competitive if it had all six quantifiable predictions/results highlighted (Cook, Fairvote, MOV, 2012 presidential, 2008 presidential and incumbent years in office) with three of the highlighted factors being most competitive (purple) and two being intermediate competitive (orange). The district must also have had a “special factor” (high outside spending, redistricting) to be added to the most competitive list.

4.Presidential differences: A district that may not have had all the categories highlighted, but voted for the other party in the most recent presidential election and the numbers were tight for the incumbent (redistricting was also factored in here).

One district was considered “Most Competitive” based only on this factor.

5.Recent effects of redistricting: This was relevant to three districts (IL-12, IL-13 and MN-08). Redistricting in the past three years caused these districts to be extremely tight and had the opportunity for a very close midterm election (the first midterm cycle these new districts will be going through).

Three districts were pushed into the most competitive list because of this, just missing meeting the other criteria listed above.

The 26 most competitive

Color Key

Color

Cook Partisan Voting Index

Fairvote (Projected D%)

Margin of Victory (MOV)

2012 Presidential MOV % %

2008 Presidential MOV %

Incumbent years in office

Purple- most competitive

Even; R or D 0-4

45.1% - 54.9%

0-4.9

0-4.9

0-4.9

0 - 4

Orange- very competitive

R or D 5-7

42.1% - 45.0%; 55% - 57.9%

5.0-7.9

5.0-7.9

5.0-7.9

5 - 7

Green- competitive

R or D 8-10

40.0% - 42.0%; 58% - 60%

8.0-10.00

8.0-10.00

8.0-10.00

8 - 10

House winners labeled this color indicate the party of the House winner being different from the party of the presidential winner of the district in 2012

Districts labeled this color indicate the districts that were pushed into most competitive based on heavily redrawn congressional districts

Both the 2012 and 2008 presidential MOV have either "✓" or "-" before the number. The "✓" indicates the district went in favor of the winner, in both years this was President Obama. The "-" indicates the district favored the Republican who lost in each election, Romney in 2012 and McCain in 2008.

DCCC & NRCC fundraising

April 2014

In the month of April 2014, the NRCC reported raising $4.1 million, falling short of the $7.1 million the DCCC raised. The NRCC ended the month with $32.3 million cash in the bank, while the DCCC had $43.5 on hand.

The DCCC brought in over $20 million more than the NRCC overall during this election cycle.[30]

December 2013

As of December 2, 2013, the NRCC reported raising $52,404,530 and spending $35,697,047, leaving it with $18,242,094 cash on hand.[31] Comparatively, the DCCC reported raising $65,202,181 and spending $41,423,695, leaving it with $25,266,707 cash on hand.[32]

September 2013

The DCCC raised $8.4 million in September compared to the $5.3 million the NRCC raised during the same period. This brought the total raised for 2013 through the third quarter to $58.2 million for the DCCC compared to the NRCC's $42.6 million.
As for cash on hand, the DCCC still had an edge: $21.6 million to NRCC's $15.7 million.[33]

August 2013

According to an Open Secrets report on FEC filings released on August 13, 2013, the DCCC had raised $40.8 million to the NRCC's $34.3 million.[34]

July 2013

Outside race ratings

Cook Political Report

Each month the Cook Political Report releases race ratings for U.S. Senate and U.S. House (competitive only) elections. The races detailed below are only those considered competitive. There are six possible designations.

NRCC Patriot

The NRCC's Patriot Program is the counterpart of the DCCC's Frontline Program and is designed to assist vulnerable incumbents in their re-election bids. The following table lists the current members of the Patriot Program.

Nick Rahall

In September 2013, the NRCC issued a press release in response to Rahall, one of the organization's main targets in 2014, mistaking an umbrella for a lump of coal during a press conference. The press release stated:

"But Barack Obama, the EPA, and Nick Rahall aren’t waging a war on umbrellas – they are waging a war on coal. And yesterday, Bloomberg reported a new front opening in that war – the EPA is set to issue a rule that will completely halt the development of new coal-fueled plants by requiring they meet unachievable carbon standards."[58]

Media mentions

Across the country, media and experts publish stories that chronicle the incumbents that are in danger of losing their bid for re-election. Some of those incumbents mentioned include:[59]

"The Monkey Cage"

In December 2013, John Sides' column, "The Monkey Cage," a blog published by The Washington Post, released his first predictions for the 2014 elections. Sides and Eric McGhee, a political scientist, developed a forecasting model that uses numerous factors, including: presidential popularity, economic growth and whether it is a presidential or midterm election cycle. "The Monkey Cage" will publish any changes in the forecast.[60]

December 2013:

Democrats will win approximately 48 percent of the popular vote for the House.

Democrats will win 196 seats, for a loss of five seats.

Independent expenditures in 2014

According to OpenSecrets.org, four of the five organizations donating the most in independent expenditures as of March 2015 were liberal organizations (as denoted in the chart by the L, for liberal, or C, for conservative, under the "View" column).

List of the top independent expenditure players in mid-2014 according to OpenSecrets.org.

Rep. Ralph Hall (R) was the only Texas incumbent forced into a runoff primary. He will face John Ratcliffe in a runoff on May 27, 2014. On May 27, 2014, Ratcliffe defeated Hall in the runoff election.[61]

Other races where a primary runoff election will be required are as follows:

Results: The predictions were correct. The race came down to the two Democratic front runners. In California's blanket primary system, both Ro Khanna and Rep. Mike Honda advanced to the general election.

Note: The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org.

Constituent approval

During the shutdown, Americans' disapproval rating of their own congressmen reached new a new high, with almost as many people stating disapproval of their member (43%) to approval (44%).
The Gallup poll concluded:

"While members of Congress may continue to argue that problems with the image of the body as a whole is not their fault, and that they are doing nothing more than faithfully representing their particular constituents, it is clear that even their own constituents are less positive about the job they are doing than they were in the past."

After October shutdown

A USA TODAY/Princeton Survey Research Poll, taken October 17-21, 2013, came to the following post-shutdown conclusions:

54% of Americans blamed both parties, 29% blamed solely Republicans and just 12% placed the blame squarely on the Democrats' shoulders.

Despite only 4% of Americans' belief that Congress would change for the worse if current members were replaced by all new members, 52% of respondents said it made no difference on whether they would vote for their incumbent in the next election.[63]

Healthcare.gov polling

After the numerous problems the Healthcare.gov website dealt with after the initial rollout on October 1, 2013, approval for the Affordable Care Act remained low at the end of 2013. According to a CBS News/New York Times poll in December 2013, more Americans continued to disapprove of the 2010 legislation than approve of it: 50% to 39%, respectively.

"Haters" polling

According to a December 2013 Washington Post-ABC News poll, 72 percent of voters who disapproved of both parties at the federal level said that they would vote for a Republican if the election were held today. Only 14 percent said they would vote for the Democrat.[64]

Issues heading into 2014

Affordable Care Act

For senators up for re-election in 2014, this will be the first election since the passage of the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act. This may be problematic for Democratic senators who voted in favor of the bill in states where it is no longer popular. This will also become a factor in open seats, especially in states where a Democratic senator is retiring. These senators include:

Shaheen ad

On the heels of the news that President Obama was given the "lie of the year" award for claiming that anyone could keep their healthcare policy under Obamacare, Ending Spending, a conservative political organization, ran an ad against Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D-NH). It was dubbed by The Washington Post columnist Chris Cillizza as "the ad every Democrat should be afraid of in 2014."[66]

The "ad every Democrat should be afraid of in 2014."

Sen. Lee letter

In July 2013, Sen. Mike Lee authored a letter, which as of August 2013 had been signed by 14 Republican senators, which promised a government shutdown unless the Affordable Care Act was defunded. The senators up for re-election in 2014 who signed the letter are:

SCF targets

The Senate Conservatives Fund targeted Sens. Isakson (R-GA), Graham (R-SC), Alexander (R-TN) and Burr (R-NC) in August 2013 with two weeks of radio ads designed to push Senate Republicans to support Mike Lee's effort to defund Obamacare.[67]

Government shutdown

Beginning in August 2013, House and Senate members began discussing the possibility of a government shutdown over the funding of the Affordable Care Act (Obamacare). On September 20, Republicans passed a spending bill in the House that would fund the government until December, but strip funding from Obamacare. When Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV) announced that the Senate would hold a procedural vote on Wednesday, September 24, many senators began to announce their positions on voting against a cloture, the motion to end debate on a bill. After Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) gave a marathon speech, the motion for cloture was accepted and Reid was able to strip the Obamacare defunding language contained in the Republican House members' continuing resolution (CR).

Following the successful cloture vote and the Senate subsequently sending a clean continuing resolution back to the House, the two chambers began a high-stakes game of hot potato. By September 30, the House had voted and sent three resolutions to the Senate that all were struck down. The Senate then sent back a clean resolution stripped of any healthcare defunding language. With Obamacare being the issue-at-hand, Congress was unable to agree on whether a resolution would fund the landmark healthcare law.[68]

In the midst of the government shutdown in October 2013, talks began regarding the impending debt ceiling.

Syria

In August 2012, President Obama said the "red line" for U.S. involvement in Syria was the use of chemical or biological weapons.[69] In April 2013, reports surfaced that Syria had used chemical weapons twice in their civil war, but it was not enough for the U.S. to intervene. In June 2013, President Obama authorized sending weapons to Syrian rebels following more reports of small scale chemical weapon attacks.[69]

U.S. Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D) on July 8, 2013, ridiculed the House’s strategy of using the “Hastert rule” to pass legislation and said SpeakerJohn Boehner will eventually have to take up the Senate’s immigration bill.[77]Reid also said Boehner’s adherence to the “Hastert Rule” requiring a majority of Republican caucus votes to move legislation is emblematic of the lower chamber’s dysfunction.[78]

The Senate passed a $1 trillion farm bill in June 2013 to fund both food stamps and farmer subsidies. States heavy in agriculture, including ones that will be competitive in 2014, may turn more favorably to Democratic candidates due to Republican opposition of the bill. The vote was 66-27, with 25 of the 27 nay votes being from Republicans. The two Democratic senators to vote against the bill were Jack Reed (RI) and Sheldon Whitehouse (RI)

Upon arrival at the House, the bill was altered by focusing solely on the farm programs and did not include the food stamp program, which will be voted on later. The House and Senate will now need to draft a final bill through conference committee.[81]

House Republicans passed a bill, the Student Success Act, on July 19, 2013, to reduce the federal role in public education and outline their vision for a national educational policy to replace the No Child Left Behind law.[82][83] The measure would give state and local governments greater powers to determine how best to improve schools and would sharply reduce federal involvement in education matters.[83]

It marked a significant departure from No Child Left Behind, the 2002 law that set federal goals for academic achievement and penalties for schools that fell short of those goals, as well as prescriptions for steps states must take to improve failing schools.[82]

No Democrats supported the bill, which passed by a 221 to 207 margin, with 12 Republicans voting with the Democrats against the measure.[84] It marked the first time in a dozen years that either chamber of Congress approved a comprehensive bill to update federal education law.[82]

The House bill is said to have no chance of moving through the Democratic-led Senate as it is written, and President Obama has threatened to veto it.[83] The Senate committee overseeing education has completed work on its own measure that would give states greater flexibility in writing their own plans to improve schools. However, unlike the Republican proposal that passed the House, that bill would allow the education secretary to retain approval power over those proposals.[83] Full Senate consideration of the measure is unlikely to happen before the fall of 2014.[83]