Title: Vulnerability and cosusceptibility determine the size of network cascades

Abstract

In a network, a local disturbance can propagate and eventually cause a substantial part of the system to fail in cascade events that are easy to conceptualize but extraordinarily difficult to predict. Furthermore, we develop a statistical framework that can predict cascade size distributions by incorporating two ingredients only: the vulnerability of individual components and the cosusceptibility of groups of components (i.e., their tendency to fail together). Using cascades in power grids as a representative example, we show that correlations between component failures define structured and often surprisingly large groups of cosusceptible components. Aside from their implications for blackout studies, these results provide insights and a new modeling framework for understanding cascades in financial systems, food webs, and complex networks in general.

@article{osti_1369629,
title = {Vulnerability and cosusceptibility determine the size of network cascades},
author = {Yang, Yang and Nishikawa, Takashi and Motter, Adilson E.},
abstractNote = {In a network, a local disturbance can propagate and eventually cause a substantial part of the system to fail in cascade events that are easy to conceptualize but extraordinarily difficult to predict. Furthermore, we develop a statistical framework that can predict cascade size distributions by incorporating two ingredients only: the vulnerability of individual components and the cosusceptibility of groups of components (i.e., their tendency to fail together). Using cascades in power grids as a representative example, we show that correlations between component failures define structured and often surprisingly large groups of cosusceptible components. Aside from their implications for blackout studies, these results provide insights and a new modeling framework for understanding cascades in financial systems, food webs, and complex networks in general.},
doi = {10.1103/PhysRevLett.118.048301},
journal = {Physical Review Letters},
number = 4,
volume = 118,
place = {United States},
year = {Fri Jan 27 00:00:00 EST 2017},
month = {Fri Jan 27 00:00:00 EST 2017}
}

The understanding of cascading failures in complex systems has been hindered by the lack of realistic large-scale modeling and analysis that can account for variable system conditions. By using the North American power grid, we identified, quantified, and analyzed the set of network components that are vulnerable to cascading failures under any out of multiple conditions. We show that the vulnerable set consists of a small but topologically central portion of the network and that large cascades are disproportionately more likely to be triggered by initial failures close to this set. These results elucidate aspects of the origins and causesmore » of cascading failures relevant for grid design and operation and demonstrate vulnerability analysis methods that are applicable to a wider class of cascade-prone networks.« less

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Mobility traces of people and vehicles have been collected and published to assist the design and evaluation of mobile networks, such as large-scale urban sensing networks. Although the published traces are often made anonymous in that the true identities of nodes are replaced by random identifiers, the privacy concern remains. This is because in real life, nodes are open to observations in public spaces, or they may voluntarily or inadvertently disclose partial knowledge of their whereabouts. Thus, snapshots of nodes’ location information can be learned by interested third parties, e.g., directly through chance/engineered meetings between the nodes and their observers,more » or indirectly through casual conversations or other information sources about people. In this paper, we investigate how an adversary, when equipped with a small amount of the snapshot information termed as side information, can infer an extended view of the whereabouts of a victim node appearing in an anonymous trace. Our results quantify the loss of victim nodes’ privacy as a function of the nodal mobility, the inference strategies of adversaries, and any noise that may appear in the trace or the side information. Generally, our results indicate that the privacy concern is significant in that a relatively small amount of side information is sufficient for the adversary to infer the true identity (either uniquely or with high probability) of a victim in a set of anonymous traces. For instance, an adversary is able to identify the trace of 30%-50% of the victims when she has collected 10 pieces of side information about a victim.« less

Climate change can induce changes in the frequency of severe weather events representing a threat to socio-economic development. It is thus of uttermost importance to understand how the vulnerability to the weather of local communities is determined and how adaptation public policies can be effectively put in place. We focused our empirical analysis on the American Southwest. Results show that, consistently with the predictions of an investment model, economic characteristics signaling local economic growth in the near future decrease the level of vulnerability. We also show that federal governments transfers and grants neither work to support recovery from and adaptationmore » to weather events nor to distribute their costs over a broader tax base. Finally, we show that communities relying on municipal bonds to finance adaptation and recovery policies can benefit from local acknowledgment of the need for such policies and that they do not have to pay lenders a premium for the risk induced by weather events. In conclusion, our findings suggest that determinants of economic growth support lower vulnerability to the weather and increase options for financing adaptation and recovery policies, but also that only some communities are likely to benefit from those processes.« less