President Nicolas Sarkozy and Socialist candidate Francois Hollande will likely emerge Sunday as the top two vote-getters in the first round of France’s Presidential election. The run-off is set for May 6th. Intrade gives Hollande more than an 80 percent probability of becoming France’s next President.

We don’t think this is fully priced. Markets may begin to focus on French politics after Sunday, which will be another source of volatility and angst. It’s going to be interesting to see how the other candidates, such as the far-right populist National Front candidate, Marine Le Pen, poll on Sunday.