Remembering President Giuliani and President Brown

Hillary Clinton has a commanding lead over Jeb Bush, 53 percent to 41 percent, in a hypothetical 2016 matchup between the two, according to a Washington Post/ABC News poll Wednesday.

How much does that tell us about their relative likelihood of becoming president? Not much. Two years before an election, head-to-head polling asking people for whom they plan to vote generally has little correlation with the results.

For one thing, early polls tend to favor those candidates with greater name recognition, as is the case in the Post/ABC poll. For another, public officials who have spent a few years out of the partisan fray often have approval ratings than can’t survive a presidential campaign. Many of the Republicans and independents who currently have warm feelings toward Mrs. Clinton may change their minds after months of campaign advertisements, speeches and debates.

Remember: When Barack Obama and George W. Bush started their presidential campaigns, many people saw each of them as “a uniter, not a divider.” Ultimately, voters in the opposite party changed their minds about that.

We recently looked back at polls asking people which candidate they wanted to see as their party’s nominee early in the presidential campaign cycle — that is about two years before an election. That’s where the calendar is now.

In polls going back to 1986, the front-runner at that stage has won the general election just once: George W. Bush led the field in 1998 and went on to win in 2000.

Mitt Romney (2010) and Bob Dole (1994) also had front-runner status as the Republican nominee this far out from the general election, and went on to win their party’s primaries two years later. In 2006, at this time in the election cycle, John McCain trailed or ran nearly even with Rudy Giuliani.

Barack Obama was not even on the list of nominees for a poll until late October 2006. He debuted far behind Mrs. Clinton but slightly ahead of the pack of potential nominees who trailed her at the time, including Al Gore, John Edwards and John Kerry.

In 2002, Mr. Gore led the early polls of Democratic possibilities, followed by Mrs. Clinton. Mr. Kerry, the eventual nominee, was polling at around 5 percent, slightly behind or tied with Tom Daschle, Joe Lieberman and Dick Gephardt.

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Jerry Brown left, and Bill Clinton in 1992. Brown led a poll of presidential contenders in 1991. CreditBebeto Matthews/Associated Press

In 1990, Mario Cuomo, Michael Dukakis and Jesse Jackson were clumped together for the lead in one poll. Bill Clinton was not asked about in a poll until September 1991, about 13 months before the 1992 presidential election. He didn’t have a command of the field at the time; Jerry Brown led that poll, while Mr. Clinton was even with Tom Harkin, Bob Kerrey, Paul Tsongas and Doug Wilder.

In the first quarter of 1986, Gary Hart was the early front-runner, and Michael Dukakis, the eventual nominee, wasn’t even being asked about. Mr. Dukakis was first asked about a year later in a New York Times/CBS Poll, and debuted with the support of 1 percent among those who intended to vote in the 1988 Democratic primary.

You can see a similar pattern in questions asking about the general election a couple of years in advance. In head-to-head polls conducted in late 2006, Mr. Obama trailed Mr. Giuliani and was running about even with Mr. McCain. In 1986, Mr. Hart led George H.W. Bush in a number of polls.

Early support levels do affect campaigns. The fact that so many Democrats want Mrs. Clinton to run and support her is probably causing many other candidates in the party to hold back from running.

On the Republican side, the lack of a dominant front-runner has caused multiple candidates to explore a campaign. In the Post/ABC poll, four Republicans receive the support of at least 10 percent of Republican-leaning voters — Rand Paul, Mr. Bush, Mike Huckabee and Paul Ryan — but none exceed 15 percent. (None of these Republicans, nor Mrs. Clinton, have said they are running for president.)

These differences between the parties will affect the campaign. But history suggests that the specific comparisons among the candidates don’t tell us much about who will win in 2016.