Texas’ 19th District could have a new senator for the first time in 12 years after Tuesday’s special election to replace convicted felon Carlos Uresti, although the eight-person race is all but certain to reach a runoff.

Uresti, convicted in February of 11 charges including fraud and money laundering, announced his resignation in June, shortly before he was sentenced to 12 years in prison. Gov. Greg Abbott called the election days after Uresti’s announcement, raising the stakes in a race that had already been underway for months.

On Tuesday, Bexar County is operating 83 voting sites from 7 a.m. to 7 p.m., with locations in China Grove, Converse, Elmendorf, Helotes, Kirby, San Antonio, Schertz, Somerset, St. Hedwig, Universal City and Von Ormy.

More than 16,000 people have voted early or mailed in ballots across the 17-county district, a San Antonio Express-News analysis found. Roughly half the totals have come from Bexar County, where two candidates — Democrats Roland Gutierrez and Tomás Uresti — represent House districts.

Gutierrez has targeted former U.S. Rep. Pete Gallego, attacking the Alpine Democrat for taking a $5,000 campaign contribution in 2014 from the for-profit prison company GEO Group. Gutierrez, pointing to Gallego’s moderate voting record and prior A- rating from the National Rifle Association, has cast himself as the more progressive candidate.

Though Gallego has declined to rebut most of the attacks, on Monday in a news release he jabbed at Gutierrez for the latter’s history of tax liens, which Gallego said remained active per Bexar County clerk records. He argued that Republicans “will have a field day” with Gutierrez’s tax issues.

Late Monday, Gutierrez called the release “full of blatant lies.”

Gutierrez has made a similar argument about Gallego’s apparent residence in Austin, outside the district. The Express-News found that Gallego’s wife, Maria Elena Ramon, claims a homestead exemption on an Austin home, and photos show Gallego leaving the house and parking his truck there. Gallego said in an April interview that he lives in Alpine.

On the Republican side, Pete Flores, a retired game warden, has gathered endorsements from Abbott, Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick and Sens. John Cornyn and Ted Cruz. Flores received more than 97,000 votes, or 40 percent of the total, as the Republican nominee against Carlos Uresti in 2016. The district is considered solidly blue, but Republicans hope the low turnout of a special election will work in their favor.

“I think it’s possible for Flores to enter the runoff, but his prospects of winning are minimal to none,” said Rice University political scientist Mark Jones. The high proportion of early votes by mail generally favors Flores’ chances Tuesday, Jones said, though many of those came before he received the high-profile endorsements.

“Their support probably would have been welcomed earlier,” Jones said.

Potentially dividing the Bexar County Democratic vote is the candidacy of Tomás Uresti, Carlos’ older brother, who lost his re-election bid in the March primaries. Gutierrez’s campaign has theorized that Uresti entered the race to split the San Antonio vote and spoil Gutierrez’s chances, though Uresti said that’s not the case.

An Express-News analysis found that early voting yielded more than 11,000 in-person votes. Only Crockett County, which made up 0.5 percent of the 2016 turnout, could not provide its turnout; a staffer said the county is “not allowed” to release its totals until Tuesday.

Elections offices around the district received 5,500 mail-in ballots, though administrators needed to verify that the ballots had been filled out correctly and can receive additional ballots through Wednesday. Kinney County also had not compiled its mail-in ballot totals.

The approximate turnout figures show about 50 percent of the early vote came from Bexar County, a dip from its 62 percent overall share in November 2016. More than 5 percent came from Gallego’s native Brewster County, compared with 1.7 percent there in 2016. Atascosa County, where Flores lives, made up more than 5 percent of the early vote, comparable to the overall level in 2016.

Since Jan. 1, reports filed with the Texas Ethics Commission show that Gutierrez has spent $437,000 on the election, compared with $116,000 by Gallego since he entered the race March 27. Gutierrez reported about $1,000 more cash on hand than Gallego through July 21, the latest date covered by campaign finance reports.

Flores had raised just $21,000 by that point but has since made a five-figure TV ad buy on Fox News that is running throughout the district.

District 19 includes parts of Bexar and Atascosa counties, reaches the New Mexico border in Reeves County and covers more than 400 miles of the U.S.-Mexico border.

Jasper covers City Hall, local politics and breaking news for the Houston Chronicle through the Hearst Journalism Fellowship program. He previously covered Bexar County and local politics for the San Antonio Express-News. Jasper graduated from Northwestern University in 2017 with degrees in journalism and political science. He has interned for the Tampa Bay Times, Washington Post and Fortune magazine.