Outlook

Valentine’s Day And Presidents’ Day Outlook:

Cold Resides in the East While the West Gets a Taste of Spring.East Coast Consumers Enjoy a Mostly Dry Holiday, but Winter Shows No Love for the Midwest.

Early next week, a winter system will move from the Upper Midwest into the Northeast. Light to moderate snow accumulations are possible from Washington D.C. to Boston. As the week progresses snow showers continue across the Great Lakes. The winter conditions will keep temperatures colder than normal east of the Mississippi River, while warmer than normal temperatures will be felt in the West. The strongest anomalies will be focused in the Plains and along the West Coast.

According to a survey from the National Retail Federation, consumer spending over Valentine’s Day is expected to reach an all-time high of $19.7 billion. In addition to this, consumers will be making need-based purchases by stocking up on snow removal items and consumables.

Holiday Weekend Outlook:
Valentine’s Day and Presidents’ Day Weekend (February 13-15) will call for lots of cuddling in the East and Midwest as below normal temperatures continue. In the West, warmer than normal conditions welcome the holiday weekend, aiding spring seasonal categories and keeping Cupid cozy in his light attire! Mostly dry conditions throughout the East Coast will boost retail and restaurant foot traffic as consumers and their loved ones head out to celebrate. The greatest possibility for precipitation and wintry weather is focused in the Plains and Midwest, curbing restaurant and retail traffic.

For reference, last year Valentine’s Day in the U.S. was the coldest since 2010 primarily driven by the East as the Mid-Atlantic and New England regions trended the coldest since 2003. In the West, conditions were warm as the Mountain region had its warmest Valentine’s Day in over 55 years, and the Pacific region was the warmest since 1991. Last year Presidents’ Day (Feb. 16) was the coldest since 1979 with the most precipitation since 1998. The New England, Mid-Atlantic, and East North Central regions were coldest in over 55 years, while the Pacific region was warmest since 1995.