Midterm elections 2018 | The Trump evaluation

It is his first major test as President – on Tuesday, the Americans are electing a new House of Representatives and members of a new senate. They are voting for members of Congress, but they are also evaluating the policies of Donald Trump (72), who took the White House exactly two years ago.

Two years of Trump – how has the US changed?

Experts take stock

► Illegal immigration

Prof. Thomas Jäger (University of Cologne): “President Trump was basically able to realize some of his promises. The US has strengthened its border police and started to build a wall on its southern border. The cities that do not prosecute illegal immigrants have come under considerable pressure. The number of deportations has increased. However, it also led to what is probably the biggest outcry against Trump, when he separated children from their parents for deportations. He has retracted Obama’s promise that people who came to the US as small children will find a way into legality. Later, he was willing to negotiate this issue, but the Democrats refused to. Thus there is no new immigration law, and all of the irregular migrants who have been in the US for decades, are under a constant threat. For Trump’s opponents, this means that, with this policy, he has violated the tradition and spirit of the US as an open-minded country of immigrants. However, that was precisely his political aim, which he has now emphasized again by wanting to abolish the right of anyone born in the US to become an American citizen. It doesn’t bother him much that he is not authorized to do so.”

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► Minister positions and staff

Prof. Thomas Jäger: “President Trump was unable to assemble his initial team from the usual pool of Republicans because many of them did not want anything to do with him. So it is unsurprising that many positions were filled with different people over the first 18 months. Some of them left, others were fired. At the same time, he is a terrible boss who publicly humiliates his ministers. So there’s constant speculation about how long his Chief of Staff, his Secretary of Defense, and Attorney General will remain in office. All of the changes, however, were heading in the same direction – the new ministers and advisors were stronger supporters of Trump’s nationalist agenda. In trade policy, nearly all of them now support his protectionist policies. His security policy is primarily concerned with the security of the US. The same principle applies to domestic policy: America first. By now, Trump’s team is aligned when it comes to this principle. For public relations, the ministers are less important than those of previous administrations. Trump drowns out everybody else, and he alone defines the issues that are relevant.”

► Economy and jobs

Prof. Christian Hacke: “Since Donald Trump’s election, America has experienced an economic boom that had already started when he took office, but it was only because of his decisions that it really took off. For 100 years, there hasn’t been a growth rate of 4.2% and a lower unemployment rate than 3.9%. The US economy is growing twice as fast and as much as the EU’s. Employment is increasing rapidly. Trump has created more than 700,000 new jobs. His tax reform – the enormous programme of public expenses – is showing its effects. So far, the trade war has had no consequences. His policy of sanctions and protectionism are popular with the people, as is creating new jobs by fracking – which also leads to America’s being independent of energy from abroad for the first time. Only two Presidents, Bush Sen. and Carter, were not elected for a second time because the economy was performing poorly. This means that the midterms, as a measure of Trump’s popularity, could be more successful than assumed. If the economic situation remains the same, his chances of being re-elected in two years might not be bad.”

► Foreign policy

Prof. Christian Hacke: “America First primarily refers to the role of the US as the world’s leading economic power. Everything else is subordinated to this goal. He regards the world as an arena, even a boxing ring, where the stronger party enforces its ‘natural’ right. In this world, the right of the stronger party holds – not the strength of the right, and even less so international law, the UN Charter, or the International Court of Justice. As a deal maker (not as a diplomat or politician – he implicitly rejects both roles), he seeks the advantageous deal by all means – and the weaker party is ruthlessly put under pressure. In his mind, compromises are for weaklings and losers, and he is unwilling to agree on them. He lacks any interest in, and understanding for, global questions and issues such as climate, environment, migration, and disarmament. The role of the US as a political power for global order has no meaning for him – on the contrary, he regards it as a burden and sees globalization as an exploitation of the US. Following the power-politically unsuccessful and cost-intensive hyperextension of powers in the course of the war against terror and so-called humanitarian interventions, a great part of the US population welcomes Trump’s renunciation of this liberal-hegemonic policy. Following 17 years of an unsuccessful war against terror, America is longing for a retreat from international commitments. Trump’s promise to do so, and to also save costs, has been well-received. From an objective point of view, however, his world-view – where friends become a burden, Germany is even declared enemy no. 1, and he makes no secret of his sympathy towards authoritarian leaders – is more than worrisome. Trump is weakening the free world, creating new power vacuums by retreating, entering into dangerous alliances – with Saudi Arabia, for example – and alienating his allies in Europe and Asia.”

► Affairs and scandals

Prof. Thomas Jäger: “The alleged support by Russia during the campaign, the entanglement between his political office and private business, and a number of sex scandals have followed the President so far. They have only harmed him from his opponents’ perspective. With each of his lies, disguised as alternative facts, he adds a new layer of Teflon. Everything drips off him. It is a matter of daily speculation whether the great awakening is yet to happen if he has to make a statement in court, or if Special Counsel, Robert Mueller, provides evidence of treason or the obstruction of justice. We don’t know what Mueller and his team really know. For the next few months, surprises are entirely possible. Trump will politically survive the other scandals, as before, as long as the economy