February 08, 2008

A plea for the fifth for Soriano

This is supposed to be the day that the Mariners finally announce the Erik Bedard trade with Baltimore, which should be followed quickly by the Cubs finally making the deal for Baltimore second baseman Brian Roberts, which brings us to the bigger story: Alfonso Soriano moving out of the leadoff spot.

Roberts is your throwback leadoff hitter -- on-base percentage over .350, 50 stolen bases last season, more than 100 runs scored two of the last four years for the sorry Orioles -- while Soriano is a throwback power hitter who took the Cubs’ $136 million and told them where he would bat.

At Cubs Convention last month, Soriano said he would be willing to hit lower in the lineup if Roberts joined the Cubs. But here's the deal: Just because Soriano says he'll allow manager Lou Piniella to bat him lower doesn't mean he'll produce there. Soriano hasn't shown much interest in hitting anything but fastballs (that's the house special at leadoff) and he hasn't shown a lot of ability or willingness to hit situationally.

Maybe he hasn't been asked to do it, maybe his managers already knew he wouldn't be disciplined enough.

But he said he would move in the lineup -- to his credit, he agreed to move from center to left last year -- and so, the question becomes how far down the order he goes. Soriano's career batting average at leadoff is .295. His next-best averages are .306 in the seventh spot and .305 in the eight hole, and we know he's not batting seventh or eighth here.

But it's his power that makes this discussion important and if you're talking just pop, then you'd end up with a $36 million No. 5 hitter. Soriano averages one homer every 17 at-bats both in the leadoff spot and in the five hole, compared to once every 22 at-bats as the three-hitter (I've rounded off because I hate math, but you'll get the point). He averages one RBI every seven at-bats when hitting first and third, while driving in a run every five at-bats in the five hole.

So, if Soriano hits somewhere other than leadoff for the Cubs, he would be best hitting behind Derrek Lee and Aramis Ramirez. But I'm not convinced that Soriano believes that batting four spots lower than the Fastball City leadoff spot would be good for him personally.

"Sweet Lou" better be some kind of sweet-talker.

Roger Clemens' campaigning in Congress looks like he's running from something, not for it. Here's the rule: If you're clean, you don't need to work the room.

Brian Urlacher underwent neck surgery. This will do nothing to help the arthritis in his back. That's apparently hopeless. The Bears aren't saying anything. Maybe they're too afraid. Understandable, because this news goes along with Lance Briggs' expected exit in a month. Worse, Adam Archuleta is still here. Same goes for Fred Miller. Who knows what planet Cedric Benson is on? And the coach is fine with returning all three quarterbacks from one of the worse offensive seasons in captivity. Be the first kid on your block to write off next season.

Pau Gasol goes here, Shaquille O'Neal goes there, and the Bulls go nowhere (nowhere near expectations, anyway). If you think Chris Duhon will go for a career high every night, please do not operate heavy machinery. If you're waiting for a trade, better pack heavy. John Paxson hasn't made a trade because he can't. Can’t make a good one, anyway.

One confusing reason is the salary cap. The much more understandable reason is General Manager 101: You can't make a deal when everybody knows you have to make a deal. You get about half the value for your players when your team is bad compared to when it's good. Players on good teams tend to get overrated; players on bad teams kill your leverage. You can't even win a my-trash-for-your-trash trade. And that's without considering all the Bulls' injuries.

I don't see where Paxson can do anything of significance that's good, and making no deal beats making a bad one. Let the roster get healthy, try to take advantage of the joke that is the Eastern Conference playoff race now that you're tied for the eighth seed and then load up on the dynamite. Deal in the off-season, because the sorry truth is, these players will have more value when they're not playing.

Future gubernatorial candidate Charles Barkley wants no campaign help from Al Sharpton or Jesse Jackson: "I don't believe in them. They always play the race card, and you can't always play the race card."

Comments

There once was a time when the manager actually made the lineup card out, especially a manager as dynamic as Sweet Lou, but those days obviously are long gone. If a player doesn't like the way the manager, or coach is doing things, then they just produce less until they get their way, or get their coach fired.

Since the eastern conference is so dreadful, and the Bulls have showed they can play well enough to compete for the last playoff spot without Deng and Gordon, who imo are milking injuries to up their free agency value, it would be nice if Paxson and Boylan would just sit those two, along with Wallace and let's see what the team has with the players who actually want to be Chicago Bulls.

In fact, Deng and Gordon best be glad i'm not their GM as i'd do everything i could to lower their value, and then i'd send them on their merry free agent way. I guess i just have very little use for people who are so greedy that they let it interfere with total logic, as well as causing it to completely disrupt a teams unity, much less contributing to an excellent coaches firing.

In the playoffs, where it's all about contact and situational hitting because you're facing the best pitchers, Soriano cost us at least two runs because of his inability to move runners over. Piniella didn't even have Zambrano bunt a man from second to third with none out because he knew that runners on base didn't affect Soriano anyway. And if you want a horror-film like jolt, take a look at Soriano's decreasing averages with more men on base, or his stats against decent pitchers.

As long as Soriano is the highest paid player on the team, the Cubs will likely never win the world series, but with him in the leadoff spot, they have NO SHOT. But Roberts and Theriot 1 and 2? That's something to get excited about.

Soriano should bat sixth, with Fukodome in the 5 hole breaking up the right handers.

Bat Soriano 4th with A-Ram protecting him in the 5 hole, and he'll continue to see fastballs while having more base runners to knock in.
The career avg numbers of Soriano batting later in the order is more indicative of his unwillingness to and his ego. Love Soriano, but fact is this is a guy who requested a trade because he didn't wan't to move to the outfield. I think he's more of a team player now, and Sweet Lou will get the best out of him no matter where he bats, (please not leadoff.)

Soriano actually wouldn't be better off hitting in the five-hole. If he's hitting five with Mark DeRosa or Geovany Soto as protection, pitchers are going to stay away and spin all sorts of breaking balls and off-speed stuff up there to him. This is not a knock on DeRosa or Soto, it's just the truth. He belongs hitting fourth, with Lee or Ramirez as protection for him so he can continue to see fastballs. The tough question becomes who do you slot in at five? In my opinion, and I don't think it's a controversial one, Ramirez is the best hitter on team. He has to hit somewhere in the top-four. That leaves Lee as the five hitter. Granted, he'll have to regain some of his power to thrive in that spot, but I think he's well-suited to having no protection behind him. He stays on breaking balls well, and has shown an ability to go the other way. If I was Lou, that's how I'd draw up the lineup.

I don’t understand why a possible trade for Roberts keeps us talking about Soriano rather than Mark DeRosa. DeRosa was the difference maker for the 07 Cubs, and any move that reduces his playing time is a step backwards.

Soriano got his dough, now see what he can do for the club. This will go a long way in showing how horrible this contract is going to be going forward. It is horrible now, with the potential to be a franchise staller. Oh for the days of

Rosie – no comments on the Illinois vs. Indiana game last night? College hoops aren’t a really big topic on your blog, but I thought the ridiculous antics during the nationally televised game would provide you with plenty of witty comments. All of Bill Self’s players are now gone, and the Illini are horrible. Let’s blame that on Eric Gordon. Let’s show how classy the Illini are by chest-bumping Gordon in the player introductions. Let’s throw stuff at his parents in the stands. Let’s act like he a 19 year old ruined Illinois’ season by going to IU. Here is a suggestion: Go to www.howtobeclassy.com or www.getalife.com. Follow directions.

He made a verbal commitment. Do we know what the word verbal means? No, verbal does not mean written. Get over it, people change their mind. It happens in college athletics ALL.THE.TIME.

Rod G., i completely agree with your feelings. but the tough part about this town is that alot of the fans/media care more about the results of this bulls team than they do about the pride and integrity of the players, coach, and GM. if paxson orders a benching of deng, gordon, and wallace and lets them walk in their free agent years and gets nothing back, they will hang him from the UC rafters.

the sad part is that with as much guts as duhon, sefolosha, and nocioni have played with over the last few games, 2/3 of them will head back to the bench and all 3 will get less playing time once hinrich, gordon, and deng are "healthy" again.

hey trib, you want to put up an interesting web poll for once? ask the fans who they would rather see start for this team. the less talented but harder working duhon/sefolosha/nocioni/smith/noah? or the overpaid crybabies (save for smith) hinrich/gordon/deng/smith/wallace?

I think getting Roberts is a mistake. Derosa had a great year last year while bouncing from position to position like a pinball. The Cubs would have been better off packaging Sean Gallagher and three prospects for Bedard, creating a very strong rotation, instead of the three headed monster of Big Z, Lilly, Hill. Pitching wins World Series' not a former juicing leadoff hitter

Rosey,
You missed this pearl of stupidity from Chad Johnson, at a Pro Bowl interview: "I get out of line at times, but what great one doesn't? What great one doesn't get emotional? Find me a great one who hasn't done it like that and I'll be quiet."

i think john paxson time is over
bring jerry krause back
as far as soriano i think he should hit between
lee & ramirez need to have stronger top of
the order roberts & fukudome should be
batting first & second
what do you think you know i value your opinion
highly

Is it just me, or does anything else think it does NOT matter where you hit Soriano. I keep reading that if you bat him here or there, he'll see more fastballs. I understand percentages and guys on base and all that, but if a guy knows he can get you out by throwing junk, won't he do it, regardless of where you are hitting?

About the author

They tell me I have to write this bio thing to go along with my blog. Not sure you care, but the bosses apparently do, so here you go:

I've covered sports for more than 30 years in print, on radio and now in cyberspace. In that time, I've smoked cigars with Michael Jordan, Mike Ditka and Red Auerbach, I've been thrown on a table by NHL all-time bad boy Dave "Tiger'' Williams, I've covered the Super Bowl, NBA Finals and Stanley Cup Finals, I've had former Bears lineman Stan Thomas act like he was going to squeeze my head like a zit, I've interviewed Roger Clemens, Hank Aaron and Donald Trump, I've been cursed at by Mike Keenan, I've watched Denis Savard go into the Hockey Hall of Fame, I've been yelled at by Bill Wirtz, I talked sports with Ben Affleck at the World Series of Poker, and I cry almost every time I see Jim Craig skate up the ice looking for his dad in the stands as the 1980 U.S. Olympic hockey team wrote the greatest sports story ever. Ever.