Is Paul Ryan’s exit setting him up for a presidential run?

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Speaker of the House Paul Ryan, R-Wis., takes questions from reporters about the massive government spending bill moving through Congress, on Capitol Hill in Washington, Thursday, March 22, 2018. (AP Photo/J. Scott Applewhite)

I’ve always believed the best politicians are those who run for office because they actually want to accomplish certain goals, and once they turn their policy proposals into law, they step aside and give someone else a turn. But the reality of the situation is that most politicians run for office with just one objective — getting re-elected.

For politicians, getting elected to office feels like being upgraded from coach to first class for the first time. Once you’ve had a taste of the high life with the extra leg room, free movies and unlimited booze, it’s impossible to force yourself back into 36E next to the screaming children, oversized bags and emotional-support peacocks.

Which is why it’s so puzzling that the speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives, Paul Ryan, abruptly announced that he will not be running for re-election and will willingly forfeit his position as the highest-ranking member of the House.

While speaking to reporters after making his announcement, Speaker Ryan said his family is the top reason he isn’t seeking re-election. ”If I am here for one more term my kids will only have ever known me as a weekend dad. I just can’t let that happen. So I will be setting new priorities in my life,” he said.

This narrative runs counter to the numerous departures of White House staff who are leaving to spend less time with Donald Trump’s family.

Whenever politicians say they’re leaving office to “spend more time with their family” it usually means that they’ve committed some act of depravity while under the influence of drugs or alcohol, said something racist or involved themselves in a career-ending calamity.

With Ryan, that doesn’t appear to be the case. In fact, with a young family living halfway across the country, I suspect there’s more than just a kernel of truth to his explanation.

That being said, there are certainly other factors that played into his decision, perhaps even more than his desire to help his kids with their homework.

First, House Republicans will almost certainly lose seats in the midterm elections; the only real question is how many. If Republicans lose control of the House, Speaker Ryan will have to hand over his gavel to San Fran Ma’am Nancy Pelosi.

It’s tough enough to go from being the speaker to being a regular member of the House — if his colleagues decide to blame him for their losses, it will be downright humiliating.

Second, keeping the large and ideologically diverse House GOP caucus together on important votes makes herding cats look like ordering from Amazon. If you don’t believe me just look at how difficult it was for him to corral the votes for the repeal and replacement of Obamacare — something Republicans have been running on for years.

Third, Donald Trump is not the easiest president in the world to coordinate with legislatively. (Which may be the biggest understatement since 2016, when I heard someone say, “That Billy Bush has had a rough year.”)

Over the course of the last year and change, Ryan’s agenda has been set by the president’s Twitter feed rather than the legislative calendar. This makes forward planning impossible and has effectively turned the speaker’s office into the House GOP complaint department.

Finally, and potentially most importantly, leaving the House of Representatives is a necessary step if Ryan hopes to launch a bid for the presidency in 2020, or more likely 2024. Only one sitting member of the House has ever moved directly from Congress to the White House; James A .Garfield was serving as a representative from Ohio when he won the 1880 presidential election.

However, a lot of “former” congressmen have moved on to the presidency, and come January 2019, that’s exactly what Paul Ryan will be.

Which takes us back to the friendly skies — let’s face it, the only thing better than flying first class is flying on Air Force One.

John Phillips is a CNN political commentator and can be heard weekdays at 3 p.m. on “The Drive Home with Jillian Barberie and John Phillips” on KABC/AM 790.