Wednesday, March 31, 2010

Well, it couldn’t have been a much worse night for the Habs last night.

The Senators beat the Caps in overtime 5-4, earning them a trip off the board because they are pretty well locked into fifth right now. The Rangers win over the Islanders got them back on the board, even though they are still extreme longshots with four points to make up on Montreal in six games.

Among the Canadiens direct competition, the Bruins got a huge overtime win in New Jersey on an overtime goal by Patrice Bergeron with just 19 seconds left until a shootout. Wouldn’t have liked Boston’s chances in the skills contest, so that goal was monumental. The win got the Bruins into a tie with Montreal and Philadelphia with 82 points.

The Thrashers beat the Leafs at home to pull to within two points of a playoff spot, but now finish the season against Washington, Pittsburgh, New Jersey, Washington and Pittsburgh. Good luck with that.

Though Montreal is breathing a little heavier this morning, the Habs have the advantage of leading in the win column on Boston, Atlanta and New York, and none of those teams have any games in hand. Four of Montreal’s final six opponents currently sit in the bottom six of the league standings: the Islanders, Leafs and Hurricanes (twice). If the Habs can win three of those games, even if they lose the rest, they finish with 88 points. I think that should be enough to get them in, though they are capable of winning five of their last six.

Philly, meanwhile, has to play the Habs, the red hot Red Wings and finish the season with two against what could be an extremely desperate Rangers team.

So even though it’s getting hot around the Canadiens collar, I still think they remain in the driver’s seat. They’ve earned the easy finishing schedule by playing a tougher one earlier on, so now it’s time for them to take advantage of it.

Tuesday, March 30, 2010

I don't have a whole lot of experience as a parent, about 32 months worth. But one thing I've learned in that time is that if you're going to threaten a punishment to your kid, you better well follow through on it.

At Canadiens practice today, Jacques Martin didn't do that. He didn't follow through on that threatened punishment because Benoit Pouliot was back on his regular line with Scott Gomez and Brian Gionta. I had suspected the demotion to a line with Sergei Kostitsyn and Maxim Lapierre at practice Monday might have only been a one-shot deal, but was kind of hoping it at least stretched into the first period of Wednesday night's game against Carolina.

Basically, Martin sent Pouliot to bed without dinner, then went to his room to give him a sandwich later. He grounded him for a week, but let him go to his friend's birthday party on the weekend. In other words, he tried to send a message that ultimately might fall on deaf ears.

Martin said today that Monday's demotion was an "outside appearance," that people didn't see the meetings the coaches held with Pouliot to show him video of what he used to do well and what he wasn't doing well anymore. But Martin knows full well that as soon as his lines are revealed at practice, there's a gaggle of reporters sending the information out en masse through twitter, and even via those outdated relics called "websites." Within minutes, a debate is raging in cyberspace on Martin's new line combinations.

Perhaps he doesn't care, but give me one good reason why Martin would have Pouliot on a different line for one practice if it weren't to try and teach the young player a lesson, to give him a wake up call.

But that wake up call likely would have been far more effective if it actually made it to game day.

Ultimately, however, it's probably pretty irrelevant, because we all know Pouliot was not going to be spending much time on a bottom six line, and that Mathieu Darche was not going to be playing with Gomez and Gionta for very long either. Pouliot does not have anywhere near the defensive responsibility required to play Darche's role, and Darche doesn't have anywhere near the hands or talent required to play Pouliot's.

Martin knows more about coaching hockey than I could ever dream to know. He's one of the most accomplished guys in the entire history of the NHL (just don't bring up the playoffs). He had his reasons for doing what he did yesterday and undoing it today. We'll find out tomorrow if the whole exercise was at all worth it.

The Canadiens got a good measure of relief last night, with both the Bruins and Thrashers losing. Being caught by the Thrashers at this point, four points back with six to play, would be a meltdown of monumental proportions. Atlanta plays Pittsburgh twice and Washington twice in its final five games, and aside from the possibility the Caps may rest some key players toward the end, I don’t give the Thrashers a great chance to pull out more than two points from those four games. Even if they were to beat Toronto and New Jersey – definitely not a given – that would give them 84 points with 36 wins. Montreal would need to win only one of its final six to qualify for the playoffs. Further back, the Rangers have 76 points and play five of their final seven on the road, though the competition is a little less than stellar. But so are the Rangers. If they lose four of their final seven, Montreal could lose out and still finish ahead of them.

Boston’s loss drops them to one game in hand on Montreal which will be made up tonight when they face the Devils in New Jersey. They are likely more worried about Atlanta, who play Toronto tonight, than they are Montreal.

The Senators play the Capitals tonight in Washington, but Ottawa is quickly becoming irrelevant to Montreal’s playoff position. A win tonight would all but cement their inability to be caught by either Montreal or Philadelphia. But consider that this team, in a span of 34 games since Jan 5, has had a five-game losing streak, an 11-game winning streak, a three-game losing streak, a five-game losing streak and a four-game winning streak. So really, anything is possible.

Jacques Martin has always appeared to want this moment to arrive, only to see what will come of it.

Whenever anyone asked him about how it could be that Benoit Pouliot was such a dog in Minnesota but such a thoroughbred in Montreal, Martin always responded with how important it was for Pouliot to maintain his work ethic. That was a big knock on Pouliot in Minnesota, and always remained a big question mark in Montreal.

Why? Because we never really saw a struggling Pouliot since his arrival in a trade for Guillaume Latendresse. After recovering from his wrist injury and playing his first game for the Canadiens on December 23 in Raleigh, North Carolina, Pouliot never went more than two games without a point, a streak that remains intact today.

But of late, he's been far less noticeable on the ice, less dangerous, less involved, even slower. In Buffalo the other night, after taking a potentially disastrous double minor for high-sticking near the end of the second of a 2-0 game, Pouliot played all of three shifts in the third period, none in the final 14:29 of regulation or in the overtime period. He finished with 9:52 of ice time against Buffalo, and the very next night against Florida he played 13:28 with 11 shifts in the final two periods, compared to nine in the first alone. And even with the Canadiens trailing by a goal Saturday night against New Jersey, Pouliot got just five shifts in the third period.

Today, what appeared to be clear in those games was confirmed at practice: Martin is not happy with Pouliot. His spot on a line with Scott Gomez and Brian Gionta at practice was taken by Mathieu Darche, a healthy scratch the past two games, but the poster child for what kind of results come from hard work.

A subtle message from the coach? Likely, and I'd be surprised if Pouliot was not back on his regular line by the end of the first against Carolina on Wednesday, or even at practice on Tuesday. Martin has done this before, notably with Latendresse when he preferred Travis Moen for top line duties during the dire injury times.

So now we'll have an opportunity to see how Pouliot responds to this challenge laid out in front of him by his coach. Will he resent having to respond to questions today about his work ethic, about how he felt to be demoted to bottom six duty and replaced by a career minor-leaguer. Or will he try to prove his coach wrong and come out Wednesday ready to be an impact player?

That response over the next few games will give a decent indication of what kind of player the Habs have here. I find it hard to believe that playing with Gomez and especially Gionta - who have both ratcheted up the intensity over the past month or so - would not rub off in a positive way on Pouliot.

But before too big a deal is made of this (is it too late for that?), it should be made clear that Pouliot is not playing that poorly. His nine points since the return from the break are actually only one fewer than Gionta. But the intensity simply is not there, at a time when a player should be able to get amped up for a morning skate, let alone a game with massive playoff implications.

When you look at it, today was a perfect opportunity for Martin to throw a pop quiz like this on Pouliot. The team has another day of practice Tuesday and a morning skate Wednesday before playing again.

Day one of Martin's exam, should it last that far, is against Carolina on Wednesday night. If Pouliot does remain on a line with Maxim Lapierre and Sergei Kostitsyn (which is an oddly interesting combinations, and not only because each player has held a spot in Martin's doghouse this season) he will have to show some resolve and make things happen. If he doesn't show any push back to Martin, Pouliot may find his role get smaller and smaller as the games get bigger and bigger.

Monday, March 29, 2010

The Flyers 5-1 beating on the Devils last night pulled them even in points with the Habs, dropping Montreal into seventh. New Jersey, meanwhile, is in fourth while Pittsburgh pulls ahead for the Atlantic division lead. So if the playoffs started today, the Canadiens would face the Penguins in the first round. Not good.

Philly is off until Thursday, while the Habs don’t play again until Wednesday. By that point, Boston will have pulled even in games after a tough back-to-back that starts tonight against Buffalo and ends tomorrow night in New Jersey. The Thrashers will also catch Montreal in games played with a back-to-back starting tonight against Carolina and finishing tomorrow in Toronto. So Montreal could potentially be eighth in the conference by the time it takes the ice against the Hurricanes, and Atlanta could pull even with Montreal in points if the Thrashers manage a sweep of their back-to-back.

But before panic starts to set in, know that the Canadiens, Sabres and Maple Leafs are the only teams in the East who have won more than half of their past 10 games. In that sense, the Bruins will be in tough the rest of the way as three of their remaining eight games are against Buffalo and Toronto, plus two against Washington and another against New Jersey.

Carolina will have the biggest impact on the race moving forward as the Hurricanes play each of these teams except Philly at least once the rest of the way.

(UPDATE: I goofed up Atlanta's number of remaining games, which is what happens when the Morning Playoff Check-up precedes the Morning Coffee. It's been fixed to show that the Thrashers will have played one more game than Montreal come Wednesday).

Saturday, March 27, 2010

The Montreal Canadiens came out for the start of their potential first-round preview with the New Jersey Devils looking like they wanted to make a statement.

The first two minutes of the game were spent in the Devils zone, quite literally, and the shots were 7-2 in Montreal's favour when Roman Hamrlik was called for tripping at 7:31 of the first.

The Canadiens got a great chance on an odd-man rush right off the ensuing faceoff, but Josh Gorges sent Tomas Plekanec's perfect feed wide with an empty net in front of him.

Patrik Elias scored about 20 seconds later. 1-0 Devils. Game over.

OK, it wasn't quite so drastic, but Montreal was utterly dominated the remainder of that period and for much of the second, not once managing to tie the game back up, but staying within striking distance for the third.

I don't want to make too much of it, but I'm wondering why that goal totally took the wind out of Montreal's sails. I understand the Devils will clamp down with a lead, but still, the Canadiens were unable to generate much of anything in the offensive zone from that point forward except for a couple of quality scoring chances early in the third.

This has been a pretty common occurrence in Montreal in years past, where consistent pressure doesn't produce a goal and the team ultimately gives up the lead and becomes "deflated," which is how Brian Gionta described the Canadiens state of mind following Elias' goal.

But I'll say this after watching that game: no one can say the Canadiens would have zero chance of beating the Devils in a seven-game series. Yes, it would be difficult, but name a potential first-round opponent that wouldn't be?

Martin Brodeur was solid again tonight, running his career record against his hometown team to 38-16-5, but he is showing signs of mortality since the return from the Olympic break. His numbers since then are very good, don't get me wrong. He has a 7-3-1 record, a 2.46 GAA and .909 save percentage. But that's not other-wordly goaltending, at least not according to his lofty standards.

The Devils first two lines are dangerous and there's some good shutdown guys on the bottom two, while the defence is far from spectacular but efficient.

So while it may have disappointing to see Montreal never regain the tremendous momentum from the start of the game, I think it says something that the Canadiens were even in that game to the end. The way they were playing, they didn't deserve it, and that makes me wonder what they can do when they show up for 60 minutes of hockey.

A lot of Montreal Canadiens fans fear the New Jersey Devils and Martin Brodeur, to the point a first round playoff match-up with them may as well be akin to not making the playoffs at all. Yes, the Devils are a formidable machine, a system-driven organization that continues ticking no matter which quality players leave or go down to injury. It never changes.

The Canadiens, on the other hand, have been defined by change the past nine months. New players, new coach, new general manager, new owner. It’s a team that is starting to understand the system of it’s coach, one that has the blessing of the new GM but of few of the fans who are still wondering why Andrei Kostitsyn and Mike Cammalleri were sent on the ice in Buffalo to protect a late-game one-goal lead.

But I don’t feel a series with the Devils would be such a fait accompli. The Canadiens beat the Devils in Jersey in their last meeting 3-1 on Jan. 22, and who knows what a fully healthy lineup will be capable of tonight? A win would serve as a huge confidence boost for a potential first round match-up, because if the doubts of the fan base and media rae any indication, perhaps the players themselves wonder if they can beat this team four times in seven games as well.

Other games tonight include the Flyers facing the Penguins, but otherwise it’s a night of spoiler games, though Calgary should be pretty desperate for a win in Boston. Should the Panthers win in Ottawa tonight and Montreal beats the Devils, the Habs will be one point back of fifth. If the Habs lose in regulation and the Flyers somehow beat the Penguins with Johan Backlund in goal, Montreal falls to seventh.

Ottawa Senators – Fifth place, 40-30-5, 85 points

Last night: 4-2 win over Buffalo

Next game: v Florida tonight

7 games remaining, 3 against teams in playoff spot

Home (3) – Fla March 27, Car April 1, Buf April 10

Road (4) – Was March 30, NYI April 3, Fla April 6, TB April 8

Montreal Canadiens – Sixth place, 37-30-8, 82 points

Last night – Did not play

Next game: v New Jersey tonight

7 games remaining, 3 against teams in playoff spot

Home (4) – NJ March 27, Car March 31, Buf April 3, Tor April 10

Road (3) – Pha April 2, NYI April 6, Car April 8

Philadelphia Flyers – Seventh place, 37-31-6, 80 points

Last night: Did not play

Next game: @ Pittsburgh tonight

8 games remaining, 4 against teams in playoff spot

Home (4) – NJ March 28, Mtl Apr 2, Det April 4, NYR April 11

Road (4) – Pgh March 27, NYI April 1, Tor April 6, NYR April 9

Boston Bruins – Eighth place, 33-28-12, 78 points

Last night: Did not play

Next game: v Calgary tonight

9 games remaining, 5 against teams in playoff spot

Home (5) – Cgy March 27, Buf March 29, Fla April 1, Buf April 8, Car April 10

Road (4) – NJ March 30, Tor April 3, Was April 5, Was April 11

Atlanta Thrashers – Ninth place, 32-30-12, 76 points

Last night: Did not play

Next game: @ Carolina tonight

8 games remaining, 5 against teams in playoff spot

Home (3) – Car March 29, NJ April 6, Pgh April 10

Road (5) – Car March 27, Tor March 30, Was April 1, Pgh April 3, Was April 9

Thursday, March 25, 2010

Carey Price lost again last night. At the end of the day, and especially at this time of year, that's all that matters. But in what appears to be a recurring nightmare for Price, he lost another game he clearly deserved to win.

Or at least it appears to be a recurring nightmare to me, but I'm constantly reminded that it's better not to base your opinions on appearances. Facts always work better.

The most striking fact about Price when compared to Jaroslav Halak is the amount of goal support he gets. The disparity, however, is very difficult to explain. Some say the Habs work harder for Halak because they want to reward the hard work he puts in every day in practice. I suppose it's a plausible theory. Others take it even further to say that guys simply don't give it everything they have when Price is in net, to punish him for his supposed laziness in practice. This, of course, is sheer and utter lunacy.

The truth might lie somewhere in between, or maybe it has nothing to do with any of that. I think at this point the quality of opposition argument is more or less moot, since both Price and Halak have played some formidable teams this season.

Whatever the reason, the numbers are strikingly different for the two goaltenders this season. In Price's 38 starts (counting the comeback win in Anaheim), the Canadiens have scored 88 goals. In Halak's 36 starts (not counting the Anaheim game), that number jumps to 107 goals. Price gets an average goal support of 2.32 per game, while Halak receives 2.97 goals per game.

That is a very wide gap. To put it in perspective, the Canadiens currently sit 23rd in the NHL at 2.58 goals per game. If Price had started every game, Montreal would be dead last in the league in goals per game, behind Boston at 2.38. If Halak had started every game the Habs would be sixth in the NHL, just behind the Penguins at 2.99.

Meanwhile, Price's goals against average in his starts (not counting relief appearances) is 2.76, while Halak's is 2.51. That means Price allows, on average, 0.44 more goals than the Canadiens score for him, while Halak allows 0.46 fewer goals than he receives in support. But if you reversed their goal support, I think you'd also see a significant change in their wins and losses.

It's difficult to quantify (perhaps someone with far better math skills than I could try it), but I would imagine Halak's won-loss record would take a significant hit if he were suddenly allowing 0.19 more goals per game than the Canadiens were scoring. Meanwhile, if Price were allowing 0.23 fewer goals than he got in support, I would think his numbers would change as well.

What should be noted, however, is that Halak's goals against numbers are still better even though both Price (31.7) and Halak (31.9) see about the same number of shots per start. But even that may be the result of better goal support, because a team that is trailing in a game will take more chances, which in turn lead to more quality scoring opportunities for the other team.

I don't know what it is, but watching Price storm off the ice last night and later throw his teammates under the bus a bit after the game showed that his frustration with this disparity is beginning to seriously weigh on him. I'd be annoyed as well if I hadn't played in over two weeks, came up with a 40-save masterpiece and still lost.

In fact, that's happened more often than normal for Price, who only has a 10-6-3 record when making at least 30 saves in a game. Halak's record in that situation? 11-2-2. Or how about this? When Price has an in-game save percentage of at least .920, his record is 9-5-2. Halak's is 16-3-2.

That's a lot of numbers, but all they serve to do is confuse me further as to why this is the situation. At the same time, however, the "why" is of little importance right now. Maybe it's just a massive, tragic coincidence. Maybe the team really does play better in front of Halak. Maybe, maybe, maybe.

But one thing that is no longer in doubt after last night's team meltdown in the final two minutes of regulation is that Price, for whatever reason, is not winning games through little fault of his own. Which is why Jacques Martin's decision to go with Halak tonight against the Panthers is a sound one, one that should probably be repeated another seven times this season and further into the playoffs.

It's a shame for Price and probably unfair that he be punished for something that simply can't be explained, but there's no longer any time left for fairness this season.

Brian Gionta was saying the other night after that dormant 2-0 loss to the Ottawa Senators that if the team plays well and loses, it’s far easier to handle. But when you are totally outplayed it’s unacceptable. So how do your Montreal Canadiens feel this morning after squandering a 2-0 lead in the final two minutes of regulation only to lose in a shootout to the Buffalo Sabres?

Personally, if I were them, I’d be more than a little upset at my coach. Jacques Martin has a tendency to believe his team can protect a lead, no matter how small, for 20 minutes. He instructs them to sit back, clog the neutral zone, clear the middle of the defensive zone and keep the opposition to the outside. With solid goaltending, the team should come out on the winning end of the score.

The passive strategy works every now and then, but it seems to me that it gets the Habs into trouble more often than not. Shift after shift, it gives a team that had been thoroughly outplayed ever-growing momentum. It also gives them the puck most of the time, which will ultimately lead to penalties, most of them the tired and/or stupid variety.

So when Ryan O’Byrne was whistled for high-sticking in the offensive zone with 3:33 to play in regulation – Montreal’s fourth of five straight penalties in the game – it was not only predictable, it was ominous. It opened the door for the Sabres and – kudos to him – coach Lindy Ruff to pull his goalie and go 6-on-4 with a lot of time left on the clock. It worked, as Tim Connolly had a puck bounce onto his stick and only had to put it in the empty net to get Buffalo within one.

On the ensuing faceoff, Martin sent out Tomas Plekanec, which is fine. Except his regular linemates Andrei Kostitsyn and Mike Cammalleri went out with him, which is not so fine. They are the two worst defensive forwards on the team. By far. Yet they were the ones chosen to protect a one-goal lead with less than two minutes left.

The Habs got pinned in their zone, with Cammalleri failing on a clearing attempt while falling down, and Paul Gaustad scored to tie it up. For Martin, it was a monumental failure in game management, and now we’ll see what it costs his team the rest of the way.

As a result of last night’s win, the Sabres have been taken off the board by virtue of their 10-point lead on the Habs this morning. The Canadiens have more pressing matters to worry about, like maintaining a hold on a playoff spot, which still hasn’t reached the stage of urgency. But it’s no longer the lock it appeared to be when the Habs were rolling to six

straight wins last week, and that’s why the lowly Rangers in 10th have been brought back to the board.

Tonight’s home game against the Panthers takes on a new level of importance, one where the Canadiens need to re-build shattered confidence, and one where they need to guard against this little malaise turning into a prolonged, season-ending slump.

Other games of importance tonight include Philadelphia taking on Minnesota, Boston hosting Tampa Bay and Atlanta playing Toronto. All three opponents are non-playoff teams, so the Canadiens will be hoping for some help tonight. But the best thing they could do would be to help themselves.

Ottawa Senators – Fifth place, 39-30-5, 83 points

Last night: Did not play

Next game: @ Buffalo Friday

8 games remaining, 3 against teams in playoff spot

Home (3) – Fla March 27, Car April 1, Buf April 10

Road (5) – Buf March 26, Was March 30, NYI April 3, Fla April 6, TB April 8

Montreal Canadiens – Sixth place, 36-30-8, 80 points

Last night – 3-2 shootout loss to Buffalo

Next game: v Florida tonight

8 games remaining, 3 against teams in playoff spot

Home (5) – Fla March 25, NJ March 27, Car March 31, Buf April 3, Tor April 10

Wednesday, March 24, 2010

Maybe Jacques Martin noticed what a lot of observers did during Maxim Lapierre's four-game suspension: namely, that Lapierre's absence wasn't all that noticeable.

In past years, losing Lapierre for a given period of time would definitely have changed the complexion of a game. Gone would be the guy who leaps over the boards and starts charging his way all over the ice looking for someone - anyone - in an opposing jersey to hit. His shifts appeared to give the entire team a lift, either by blocking a shot, having a sustained forecheck, or even laying a cheap shot behind the play.

But that player has been gone all season, replaced by someone far more passive and far less hungry, someone who may have felt he'd earned the right to stop working quite as hard on the ice.

Well, now he's earned a seat in the press box for tonight's big game in Buffalo, despite the fact Travis Moen is out with a torn face. Both Mathieu Darche and Tom Pyatt survived the return of Mike Cammalleri and Marc-Andre Bergeron, and it's because they know the No. 1 reason they are earning an NHL paycheque is because they work hard. Lapierre forgot that somewhere along the way.

Tonight will also mark the return of Carey Price in the Canadiens net. Personally, I thought the time to bring Price back would be tomorrow night against the Florida Panthers, but after giving it some thought I think I agree with the decision. First of all Florida is closer in the standings (eight points back) to Montreal than Buffalo (nine points up), thereby making the home half of the back-to-back slightly more important.

Price has played well against the Sabres this year, and bringing him back in an environment where he won't necessarily be booed if he allows a bad goal might not be a bad idea.

But the main reason I like the decision is this: Price deserves one more shot to prove he can play. And it's better to find out now whether or not he can.

The Bruins put a crink in the Thrashers playoff surge with a 4-0 win in Georgia last night, which also maintained the Habs four-point cushion over Atlanta. Boston, however, creeped to within a point of Montreal for seventh place. In Ottawa, meanwhile, the Senators posted a second straight 2-0 win over a direct playoff rival by downing the Flyers. So that meant Philly remains tied in points with Montreal, but is still in sixth because they have one more win.

Of course, everyone assumes that sixth spot is a coveted one because it would mean drawing, in all likelihood, the Sabres in the first round. We’ll find out tonight if that would be good thing for the Canadiens when they play in Buffalo. Montreal can claim sole possession of sixth with a win.

Buffalo Sabres – Third place, 39-22-10, 88 points

Last night: Did not play

Next game: v Montreal tonight

11 games remaining, 6 against teams in playoff spot

Home (5) – Mtl March 24, Ott March 26, TB March 27, Fla March 31, NYR April 6.

Tuesday, March 23, 2010

In case you haven’t heard, the Habs lost 2-0 to Ottawa last night, costing them a chance to claim fifth in the conference for a second straight game.

There’s a big game at the bottom of the board tonight as the Bruins visit the Thrashers in an effort to hold on to the final playoff spot. The Thrashers are riding a four-game win streak into this game, while Boston has won two of three.

Buffalo Sabres – Third place, 39-22-10, 88 points

Last night: Did not play

Next game: v Montreal Wednesday

11 games remaining, 6 against teams in playoff spot

Home (5) – Mtl March 24, Ott March 26, TB March 27, Fla March 31, NYR April 6.

The Canadiens have landed with a big thud after riding high on a six-game winning streak, but after sleeping through last night's 2-0 loss to the Ottawa Senators, I think a little bit of perspective is in order here.

The Habs entered the Olympic break in eighth place in the conference. Barely. The Rangers and Lightning were only a point back, the Thrashers were two back, and all of them held games in hand. A playoff spot, let alone finishing fifth in the conference, was very dicey.

After picking up 15 out of 20 points since the break, the Canadiens are in a far better position than anyone could have hoped or imagined. I remember Josh Gorges talking during the break about needing to win two of every three games the rest of the way to have a good shot at the playoffs. At the time, there were 19 games left on the Canadiens schedule, which meant 12 or 13 wins would do the trick. I thought he was crazy, and I think deep down he thought he was a bit crazy as well.

Now, the Habs need to win five of their last nine games on the schedule to reach Gorges' magical mark, and I won't say that's a given, but it's highly possible.

Still, last night's snoozer at the Bell Centre needs to serve as a wakeup call to this team, a reminder of who they were and are. A lot of people will point to the power play as being the top culprit, but the power play's been pretty mediocre for some time now, and it didn't stop the Canadiens from winning game after game (this is what I wrote about last night). The team that won six straight was one that spent shift after shift in the offensive zone, not the one last night that struggled mightily to get through the neutral zone with the puck.

Brian Gionta spoke repeatedly of the lack of puck support, both last night and in Toronto on Saturday. He should know, because I don't know how many times last night Gionta crossed the opposing blue line by himself, only to be forced into taking a routine shot from the top of the slot simply because he had no help with him.

But the Canadiens are at a dangerous point because it appears the return of Mike Cammalleri and Marc-Andre Bergeron should come tomorrow night in Buffalo. The team can't view these guys as the cavalry coming to save them. Something needs to change in the approach and execution of the last two games. Bergeron alone will not save the power play, and Cammalleri alone will not necessarily wake up Andrei Kostitsyn (though it definitely can't hurt).

A lot of people were absent last night for the Canadiens. I thought Scott Gomez played his worst game in weeks, Benoit Pouliot was invisible except when getting smacked by Andy Sutton, Hal Gill regressed from his strong, sound play since the break, the role players who had provided so much lift provided none.

But the situation is far from dire. It's actually better than anyone could have hoped.

Monday, March 22, 2010

The Thrashers completed a home-and-home sweep of the Flyers to vault themselves back into playoff contention, while the Rangers lost a huge one to the Bruins yesterday that might have spelled the end of their post-season dreams.

The Flyers loss moved the Senators into fifth on a tie-breaker, but those two remain tied in points with the Canadiens at 79 each. The Sabres, meanwhile, won their third straight to put a stranglehold on the division lead with a nine point cushion on both Ottawa and Montreal, who are Buffalo’s next two opponents. Wins in each of those games should lock it up for the Sabres.

Tonight Morning Playoff Check-up Marquee Match-up is the only game on the board, with the reeling Senators visiting the Canadiens.

Buffalo Sabres – Third place, 39-22-10, 88 points

Last night: 5-3 win over Carolina

Next game: v Montreal Wednesday

11 games remaining, 6 against teams in playoff spot

Home (5) – Mtl March 24, Ott March 26, TB March 27, Fla March 31, NYR April 6.

Sunday, March 21, 2010

Seven days ago I wrote how this past week would be a decisive one for the Montreal Canadiens playoff hopes. Now that we're here I think everyone can agree the Habs are in a pretty good position to make the post-season, and even finish as high as fifth. Considering the Canadiens entered the Olympic break 11 points out of that spot, and only one point out of ninth, I'd say things couldn't be going much better for them right now despite that shootout loss in Toronto Saturday night.

With most teams having only 10 or so games left in the schedule, I thought I'd try to handicap the stretch run for the teams competing with Montreal to try to get an idea of what lies in store the rest of the way, in order of their current position in the standings.

BuffaloThe Sabres have rebounded nicely from a post-Olympic hangover to post three straight wins and solidify their hold on the Northeast division lead. Still, they're not out of the woods yet, with some difficult games to come. But if they win their next two games, at home to both Montreal and Ottawa, they should have it locked up.

How odd that Ottawa would acquire Alex Kovalev and then become a totally schizophrenic team? When the Sens were piling up 11 straight wins in January and February, Kovalev had three goals and eight assists with a plus-7 rating and 36 shots on goal. Over their current 1-7-1 swoon since the Olympics, Kovalev has zero points, a minus-10 rating and 17 shots on goal. You take the good, you take the bad, you take them both, and there you have Alex Kovalev. Of course, Kovalev is not the only one to blame for this train wreck, but how long will it continue? Pretty long, I think.

@ Mtl March 22 Lv Pha March 23 W@ Buf March 26 Lv Fla March 27 OTL@ Was March 30 Lv Car April 1 L@ NYI April 3 W@ Fla April 6 L@ TB April 8 OTLv Buf April 10 L (UPDATE: Andrew pointed out in the comments I had both teams losing this game, so I'm making it a win for Ottawa because they should be the more desperate team. Finishing record has been adjusted)

Finishing record: 40-36-7, 87 points

Philadelphia

After Michael Leighton got hurt in a game against the Nashville Predators last week, Brian Boucher stopped 51 of the first 54 shots he faced, a save percentage of .944. Since then, Boucher has 51 saves on 59 shots, a save percentage of .879. So which Boucher is the real thing? I would think the latter, and I would also think Paul Holmgren is kicking himself right now for not giving Bob Gainey whatever it is he wanted for Jaroslav Halak a few months ago.

MontrealThe imminent return of Michael Cammalleri will provide a big boost to a team that, frankly, doesn't really need one right now. Marc-Andre Bergeron should also help a power play that went a dismal 1-for-7 Saturday against the worst penalty killing team in the league. Looking at the Canadiens schedule it should be a nice ride to the finish, but it's usually when you think that way that things start to go awry.

A team that couldn't score with Marc Savard definitely shouldn't be able to score without him. Except I'm a big fan of Claude Julien's and his ability to coax the most out of his players. I still think it will be a rough ride to the end for Boston, but perhaps not as bad as everyone thinks.

@ Atl March 23 W

v TB March 25 W

v Cgy March 27 L

v Buf March 29 W

@ NJ March 30 L

v Fla April 1 W

@ Tor April 3 OTL

@ Was April 5 L

v Buf April 8 L

v Car April 10 W

@ Was April 11 W

Finishing record: 38-31-13, 89 points

Atlanta

This is a very nice story the Thrashers are writing with four straight wins to climb back in it, but their schedule is just brutal, and they're not very good. But I do see them winning Ilya Kovalchuk's return to Atlanta, so maybe that will make up for missing the playoffs.

v. Bos March 23 L

v Tor March 25 W

@ Car March 27 L

v Car March 29 W

@ Tor March 30 L

@ Was April 1 L

@ Pgh April 3 L

v NJ April 6 W

@Was April 9 L

v Pgh April 10 L

Finishing record: 35-36-11, 81 points

New York Rangers

Yeah, right.

So here's the final standings as I see them, though I'm not quite sure what to make of the battle between Pittsburgh and New Jersey for the Atlantic crown, so take their placement with a grain of salt.

The loser point Montreal picked up in its 3-2 shootout loss to the Leafs brought the Canadiens into a three-way tie for fifth, but based on games played and wins, they still find themselves in seventh. Not a bad spot, as far as I’m concerned, and you shouldn’t poo-poo that point in Toronto. Frankly, I thought the Habs were going to lose that game outright, so to get a point is not a disaster by any stretch. Especially considering Philly and Ottawa both lost.

Buffalo’s win in Florida was its second straight and opened a gap of seven points over Ottawa and Montreal in the division race. It’s pretty unlikely the Sabres will be caught, but they do have a difficult schedule and play both Ottawa and Montreal twice each.

Today’s Morning Playoff Check-up Marquee Match-up is the Rangers visiting the Bruins. The playoff hopes of both teams ride heavily on the outcome of this game. Another big game is the back end of a home-and-home between the Flyers and Thrashers in Philly. Atlanta has resurrected itself with three straight wins following a six-game skid, including a convincing 5-2 win over the Flyers at home last night. If the Rangers and Thrashers win, Atlanta will move into eighth and the Bruins will drop of out of playoff positioning.

Buffalo Sabres – Third place, 38-22-10, 86 points

Last night: 3-1 win over Florida

Next game: @ Carolina today

12 games remaining, 6 against teams in playoff spot

Home (5) – Mtl March 24, Ott March 26, TB March 27, Fla March 31, NYR April 6.

Saturday, March 20, 2010

Last night saw a tightening of the race in the west with Calgary pulling even with Detroit in points, but still sitting in ninth because the Wings have a game in hand. Nothing happened out east, but that changes tonight with five of the seven teams on the board in action.

The Morning Playoff Check-up’s marquee match-up takes place in Toronto, with two of the hottest teams in the league facing off in a traditional rivalry game. Otherwise, the Flyers playing in Atlanta is interesting as the Thrashers need a win desperately while everyone waits to see if Flyers goalie Brian Boucher’s 27-save performance in Dallas the other night was just adrenaline talking.

If Montreal wins in Toronto, the Flyers lose in Atlanta and the Senators lose in Dallas, your Canadiens will wake up tomorrow morning all alone in fifth place in the conference.

Buffalo Sabres – Third place, 37-22-10, 84 points

Last night: Did not play

Next game: @ Florida tonight

13 games remaining, 6 against teams in playoff spot

Home (5) – Mtl March 24, Ott March 26, TB March 27, Fla March 31, NYR April 6.

Road (8) –Fla March 20, Car March 21, Bos March 29, Tor April 1, Mtl April 3, Bos April 8, Ott April 10, NJ April 11

Who you're reading

I'm a freelance sports reporter working in Montreal who has covered the Habs since 2000. I used to be obsessed with the Canadiens by choice, and for free. Now I'm paid to do the same thing. It's pretty sweet.