Pac-12 football: Ranking the schedules

In one admittedly narrow but potentially significant respect, this shapes up as a promising season for Pac-12 football.

The best teams — at least, the best teams on paper — we’re talking about USC, Oregon, Stanford and Utah — all have favorable schedules, thereby creating the possibility that a handful will be top-25 regulars and a few will be Bowl Championship Series contenders.

Framed another way: While floundering Oregon State has to deal with Wisconsin and Brigham Young, powerhouse Oregon gets Arkansas State and Tennessee Tech.

The following strength-of-schedule rankings are based not only on the opponents but also the location and timing of games.

Here we go, from softest to toughest …

12. Oregon: The Ducks open with three cupcakes (Arkansas State, Fresno State and Tennessee Tech) and don’t play a true road game until Oct. 18. They also get Stanford and Washington at home and miss Utah. The trip to USC (Nov. 3) looms above it all, but make no mistake: It’s a made-to-order schedule for BCS purposes.

11. Utah: For the second consecutive year, the Utes miss both Stanford and Oregon. Unlike last season, they get USC at home. There’s also extra time to prepare for the game (at UCLA) that could decide the runner up in the South division.

10. USC: With a soft start (Hawaii and Syracuse), no out-of-town trips in November and their most important game (Oregon) at home, the Trojans couldn’t have asked for a more favorable schedule as they pursue the national championship.

9. UCLA: The Bruins, who need every break they can get, don’t play Oregon and get Stanford and USC at home. They also have two extra days to prepare for Nebraska (in the Rose Bowl).

8. Stanford: The Cardinal opens the season with three in a row at home and misses Utah. The roadtrips are challenging (Seattle, South Bend, Eugene), and it’s unquestionably a tougher schedule than Stanford faced in either of the past two years. But it’s hardly unmanageable.

7. Arizona State: The non-conference opponents include two BCS-level foes (Missouri and Illinois) — bad news for a team breaking in a new quarterback and coaching staff. The middle portion of the season is manageable, but the Sun Devils finish with three of four on the road. ASU also has the quirkiest schedule, with a midseason bye followed by two Thursday affairs — no Saturday games for a month.

6. Washington State: The opener, at BYU, presents plenty of problems, as does a difficult late-season back-to-back against Stanford and Utah (both on the road). But what makes WSU’s schedule so challenging is that the “home” game against Oregon is actually in Seattle, where the Ducks will be well-represented.

5. Colorado: The Buffs had arguably the toughest schedule in the conference last season. It’s easier this time around, but not by much: Colorado has a brutal three-week stretch starting in mid-October — USC (road), then Oregon (road), then Stanford (home) — and finishes with a challenging back-to-back: Washington and Utah.

4. Oregon State: The Beavers miss USC, which is good, but they also miss Colorado, which is bad. But it’s the non-conference lineup that makes the Beavers’ schedule so tough: They host Wisconsin and visit BYU (potentially an 8+ win team). They also have Stanford and Washington on the road.

3. Cal: Even if the other 10 games were against cupcakes, the consecutive September trips to Ohio State and USC make it a challenging schedule. But Cal has a difficult second-half lineup with Big Game (in October) followed by Utah, Washington and Oregon. And don’t underestimate the lack of a bye — playing 12 consecutive weeks takes a toll.

2. Arizona: The brutal series of games Arizona faced at the end of ’10 and again in the beginning of ’11 has been broken up, but the schedule remains formidable: The Wildcats are the only team that plays both Stanford and Oregon on the road — both early, too — and they visit Utah, as well. And don’t forget about Oklahoma State in Week Two.

1. Washington: The Sept. 8 trip to LSU stands as the single toughest assignment in the league and perhaps the toughest non-conference game for any BCS-level team in the country. Then add a visit to Eugene … and back-to-back-to-back dates with Stanford, Oregon and USC (yikes!) … and three of the last four on the road … and two Friday roadies (Cal and WSU) … and the Huskies are an easy choice for the toughest schedule. Best of luck, Sark. You’ll need it.

Post navigation

Please, would every Pac-12 writer acknowlege that UO did have Kansas State on the schedule for this year. Still a cupcake sked, but they did try to book a respectable opponent.

S

Stanford’s 3 at home start barely counts as home games as school is not in session yet, so no one will be on campus…

StanTheMan

Poor Cal. No time to build up any hype this year before sliding back to a 6-7 win season. Fans will be hoping for .750 ball in Oct/Nov just to get bowl eligible.

StanfordMatt

Not so fast on those BCS dreams for Duck fans. Rumor has it that significant sanctions are in the pipeline from the NCAA. In a few months, Chip Kelly might be regretting not taking that Buccaneer job.

Huskerteer

Ark State won 10 games last season. Fresno State, while not the same program it was 10 years ago still has quality players. Oregon’s schedule is not so soft.

OrangeMark

USC is so overrated this year.

I swear If I see that quartberback with a sword again…Point is, they need to go down hard.

Jojo

Dear StanfordMatt,

Do you work for the NCAA Infractions Committee? Are you a member of the Oregon Athletic Department? No? Well I’m not either, and you don’t see me posting moronic comments either. Maybe you should follow my lead and not post things that neither of us have a single clue about.

There are rules, StanfordMatt. This isn’t ‘Nam, it’s college football.

milo

Right about now…Stanfurd should bring up admissions and how it made their schedule super tough for their demi-Ivy ambitions! 🙂

StanfordMatt

Take it easy, Jojo. There is no need to get so defensive. I’m sure that the Ducks will survive whatever penalties the NCAA hands down. If they need any help, there is a perfect example of how cheaters can get around NCAA sanctions about 900 miles south.

Jojo

Obviously you’re not a golfer….

You didn’t really hear anything, did you? You just saw what some idiot put on twitter, right? You can tell Jojo, he’s an okay guy

Papa John

I may have missed this on another thread, but I believe it is time to make our predictions for Stanford and Cal. I’ll say:

Stanford: 8-4, 2nd in the Pac-12 North (6-3) with a trip to the Riverwalk in San Antonio for the Alamo Bowl.

Cal: 7-5, 3rd in the North (5-4) with a trip to Old Town in San Diego for the Holiday Bowl.

Any other takers?

Keith

Those “significant sanctions” rumors are hilarious. The sanctions may be significant or they may be a slap on the wrist, but the rumors are borne out of nothing.

UtahAlumnus

From a Ute fan: Go Washington, beat LSU for the conference!

alchemist

Papa John:

You think Duke beats Furd?

Pluto99

The Duke scheduling is unfortunate, IMO. Notre Dame is past the point where scheduling them is a sign of courage. If the ideal is to schedule an A, B, and C, Notre Dame is closer to a B+ than it is an A-. So what we have right now is B+, B-, and C. And calling Duke a B- may be a stretch.

mbellinger

So the ducks are actually chickens? And somebody is defending Arakansas State as a tough game.

Scott

Notre Dame has at least won 8 games the last two years and is preseason ranked. Who knows how much a possible win would help us until the end of the year.

Booked my trip to Chicago with 3 buddies and will be rooting on the Card in South Bend regardless. Hard to compete with that road trip.

I hope I’m wrong, but I think Stanford will struggle on the road this year.

alchemist

Scott:

A preseason ranking and an empty sack are worth the sack. Notre Dame’s schedule is brutal and unless I missed a major headline this morning they’re still coached by a moron. Furd should roll them.

Pluto99

Scott,

I don’t have the energy to check, but I’m pretty sure Notre Dame has not been ranked in the final AP poll the past 6 years, whereas they were ranked in the pre-season in most of those years. Every year it’s “this is the year” for Notre Dame.

They won 8 games in 2011, but the only quality win was against MSU.

I’m not saying it’s a shoe in win, but it’s not a game against a top BCS league school.

DFan

I would rate USC’s schedule a bit harder. Having to play 3 of their top 4 Pac12 opponents on the road (over the course of 5 weeks) will not be easy. And if they do have a depth problem, playing 2 top-25 teams in November won’t be easy as well (even if they are home games).

Stanford is another one that I think has a harder schedule than you indicate, given that they play 3 top-25 teams, and 2 of those are on the road.

And I would bump Arizona State down (as being easier). While Illinois and Missouri are BCS teams, Illinois was barely a bowl team last year and will have a new coach. Missouri is not expected to be as good as last year. Plus they get Utah and UCLA at home.

Oh, and Paul, nobody cares who Oregon was supposed to play. Most sports writers try to write about what is (facts), not what might have been (fantasy).

Scott

I was just saying it’s hard to judge until we see how they do this year. Rag on their performances the last couple years all you want but we beat a 22nd ranked (at the time) Notre Dame in our final reg season game. That win and it’s weight in factoring into our BCS computer numbers sprang us into the top 4 and an assured BCS berth. It help guarantee a trip to the Fiesta Bowl. That can’t be disputed.

Nor-Cal Scott

In Cal’s review JW fails to point out that both the Oregon & Washington games are at home. That’s a huge difference for a Tedford team vs being on the road. Cal really got screwed in this year with the Oct 20th Big Game and having their bye week the last week of the season, meaning the Bears play 12 in a row. No chance for a dinged up player to rest, heal up, etc.

I’ll bite Papa John:

Cal goes 8-4 with L’s to @tOSU, USC, @Utah, & Oregon. The Ohio State game really intrests me: Can Urban turn this floundering program around so quickly? But it is in the Horseshow.

Stanfurd limps through a “luckless” year to 7-5, and maybe 6-6. L’s to USC, @UW, @ND, @Cal, @Oregon, and possibly @UCLA if Mora & Hundley get the babybruins on track.

I see Stanford possibly going 10-2, but I don’t think they’ll lose to Oregon, Washington, and ND on the road. Cal could go 6-6, but I see them losing their last five games plus USC & OSU.

Papa John

StanTheMan, you don’t think Stanford will lose to UO in Autzen? That’s a bold prediction. To me, that game is the most likely loss in Stanford’s entire schedule.

alchemist

StanTheMan:

You’re taking Furd over SC-Lite when the game is in Eugene? What are you smoking? Where can I get some?

milo

The mystical magical place that is Strawberry Canyon will be the scene of much trepidation in the hearts and minds of Furds everywhere as they observe the return of the Bears to a glorious, victorious Pac-10 championship.

GO BEARS!

Trojan4Ever

milo:
When was the last time the Bears won the Pac 8/10/12 championship? Was it even in your lifetime?
Hurry up and answer, because we all know you will pull your annual disappearing act by the 3rd or 4th game of the season. My money says right after USC destroys your bears on Sept 22.

milo

BIG OOPS! PAC-12 it is!

GO BEARS! 🙂

ginfizzbear

Trojan4ever: Cal won a share of the Pac-10 championship in 2006. A simple google search would have told you that, but apparently that is beyond the capabilities of you poorly-educated SC guys.

Trojan4Ever

ginfizzbear:
I think not. USC won the head-to-head game with Cal and thus was declared the league champion and played in the Rose Bowl. That’s right…the Rose Bowl game. A place Cal has not visited since 1959.

alchemist

ginfizzbear:

Youl would think with all the extra time SC students have on their hands once the check clears and the automatic B’s hit their transcripts that they’d pay a bit more attention to football so they’d be able to remember things.

alchemist

Where in the heck is Wilner? We’re a week and a half from the start of football and he’s not made a peep in days. I can only assume he’s furiously tunneling under the conference offices in Walnut Creek to listen in on negotiations with the satellite companies so he can break the story when DirecTV signs on.

SU 78

He’s too busy trying to find out how he can rank Stanford lower than every other sportswriter in America. He ranked Stanford 23rd, so it is safe to say we should be 13th.