Stakes high for Santorum, Romney in Arizona debate

When the four Republican presidential candidates meet tonight in Arizona for what could be their last televised debate, the stakes will be higher than ever.

Consider what's happened since the Jan. 26 debate in Florida and the impact on what has been a roller-coaster ride for the GOP nomination:

Rick Santorum is at the top of national polls, arriving in that spot without the money or campaign organization of his rivals. Mitt Romney is having trouble making his argument that he is the party's most electable candidate against President Obama.

Newt Gingrich has fizzled since his lone victory in South Carolina. And Ron Paul's passionate followers have yet to help him win a single state.

Tonight's debate at the Mesa Arts Center is the 20th for Republicans, and is the only one before voters in Arizona and Michigan hold primaries on Tuesday. USA TODAY's Jackie Kucinich is reporting from Arizona, and we'll be live blogging in this space. Our colleagues at The Arizona Republic are also covering the debate.

Here are five things to watch:

Can Santorum take the heat? This will be the first time the former Pennsylvania senator goes into a debate leading national polls.

His debate performances have gotten stronger as he's gained support across the country, but he hasn't had to face his rivals since sweeping contests in Minnesota, Missouri and Colorado on Feb. 7.

Terry Madonna, a professor at Franklin and Marshall College in Pennsylvania and a longtime Santorum observer, said the ex-senator must show his command of the issues without being strident.

"He has to conduct himself in a way that's appealing to his core supporters, but at the same time he's got be very careful about being too tough and too negative," Madonna told USA TODAY. "He's got to maintain his discipline."

Will Romney play offense or defense? Polls in Michigan, the state where he was born and his father, George, was governor, show Romney virtually tied with Santorum. Campaign finance reports filed Monday indicate the former Massachusetts governor burned through $18.7 million in January, and only has victories in New Hampshire and Florida to show for it.

Still, the latest USA TODAY/Gallup Poll shows Romney is viewed by Republicans as having a better chance than Santorum of beating Obama in November. But he's got to win the GOP nomination first.

"Romney has got to create some kind of doubt about Santorum's credentials," said Edward Hinck, a communications professor and director of forensics at at Central Michigan University in Mount Pleasant.

"Candidates have to figure out the puzzle: How can they appeal across all of these states and build a rationale that works to get the nomination, but one that doesn't do a lot of damage and helps them in the general election?"

How will Newt Gingrich get back in the game? The former House speaker has shown before he can revive his campaign through strong debate performances. He is confident he'll do so again, and has set his sights on winning states such as Oklahoma and Georgia that vote on Super Tuesday (March 6).

The debate's Arizona setting could also be a factor for Gingrich, who has been courting Latino voters. Gingrich would like to find a way for some illegal immigrants already in the United States to attain some sort of legal status, provided they meet certain conditions. That stance differs from Romney's support for self-deportation.

"The challenge for Gingrich is to talk about the issue in terms of what it means for the state of Arizona … and the way it would change the labor economics in the state," said Kelly McDonald, an assistant professor at Arizona State University. "He's got a built-in narrative frame to talk about how immigrants helped develop the West and the roles families across borders had in building Arizona."

Will bombs be thrown in the culture war? There's no question that the economy is the biggest issue in the 2012 presidential election.

But lately topics such as abortion, birth control and same-sex marriage have become part of the national conversation. For example, the candidates have been drawn into the debate over Obama's policy requiring health insurance plans of religious-affiliated institutions to offer free contraceptives.

Santorum, who has strong ties to social and religious conservatives, is the candidate most identified as an opponent of abortion and gay marriage. One of his supporters, Foster Friess, created a stir when he had to apologize for joking that women should put aspirin between their knees as a contraceptive.

Madonna, the Franklin and Marshall professor, says there is a danger for Santorum to focus too much on these issues. "He's got to be careful that he doesn't drive away Republican voters who might be pro-life, but not in the same way he is. He's got to find a way not to antagonize them," Madonna said.

What will be the buzz-worthy moment? There is bound to be a moment tonight that becomes the debate's most-talked about exchange. For example, the Jan. 19 debate in South Carolina opened with Gingrich slamming CNN moderator John King (who is doing the same duty tonight) for asking a question about his ex-wife.

But clashes tonight may take on additional resonance, since this could be the last debate for Republicans. CNN scuttled plans for a March 1 debate in Georgia after the candidates, led by Romney, declined the invitation and cited their need to meet voters face-to-face in key states. A debate sponsored by PBS is scheduled for March 19 in Oregon, but the candidates have yet to commit to participate.

The challenge for the GOP candidates is to make sure that they don't generate buzz for making a gaffe, as was the case with the now-famous "oops" moment by Rick Perry during a Michigan debate in November.

"People will be talking about this being the last debate and the last chance for candidates to consolidate support," said Central Michigan's Hinck.

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About Catalina Camia

Catalina Camia leads the OnPolitics online community and has been at USA TODAY since 2005. She has been a reporter or editor covering politics and Congress for two decades, including stints at The Dallas Morning News and Congressional Quarterly. Follow her at @USATOnPolitics.