A spring break reveler gets a drink at a bar in the resort city of Cancun, Mexico, early Tuesday Feb. 26, 2013. Cancun is one of the No. 1 foreign destination for U.S. college students wanting to enjoy spring break. less

A spring break reveler gets a drink at a bar in the resort city of Cancun, Mexico, early Tuesday Feb. 26, 2013. Cancun is one of the No. 1 foreign destination for U.S. college students wanting to enjoy spring ... more

Photo: Associated Press

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Mexican navy marines patrol the nightclub district as spring breakers party in Cancun early Tuesday, Feb. 26, 2013.

Mexican navy marines patrol the nightclub district as spring breakers party in Cancun early Tuesday, Feb. 26, 2013.

Photo: Associated Press

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Spring Break revelers dance at a club during a foam party in Cancun on March 2, 2013.

Spring Break revelers dance at a club during a foam party in Cancun on March 2, 2013.

Photo: Associated Press

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A foam party is in full swing at a nightclub in the resort city of Cancun, Monday, March 4, 2013.

A foam party is in full swing at a nightclub in the resort city of Cancun, Monday, March 4, 2013.

Photo: Associated Press

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A Mexican navy marine stands guard as women walk by a nightclub during spring break in Cancun on Saturday, March 2, 2013.

A Mexican navy marine stands guard as women walk by a nightclub during spring break in Cancun on Saturday, March 2, 2013.

Photo: Associated Press

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Spring break revelers enjoy a foam party at a nightclub in the resort city of Cancun, Monday, March 4, 2013.

Spring break revelers enjoy a foam party at a nightclub in the resort city of Cancun, Monday, March 4, 2013.

Photo: Associated Press

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Ongoing war makes Mexico spring break a perilous party at best

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As thousands of college kids prepare for spring break, an Austin-based global intelligence company warns that Mexico remains a very violent, unpredictable country, where even innocent bystanders in beach resorts can be raped, robbed or killed by gangsters who operate with impunity.

Stratfor, which often prepares intelligence reports for corporations looking to do business in Mexico and elsewhere, is offering an assessment of the situation in Mexico.

And the firm, located not far from the University of Texas at Austin, makes a trip south of the border look anything but inviting, even for seasoned travelers. Police there can’t be counted on, and highway checkpoints can be manned by criminal imposters wearing the uniforms of police or military personnel.

It goes right down the line and notes the potential for danger in Cancun, Puerto Vallarta, Acapulco, Mazatlan and Mexico’s other coastal resorts. The perception has been that these places are for fun and the gangster violence doesn’t hit there . The report is free at this link.

“There is a misconception that cartels want to avoid interfering with the profitable tourism industry, or that they only target Mexican citizens. This simply is not true,” notes the report.

Stepping into a war zone is just a bad idea.

“It also is important to understand the risks associated with traveling to a country with in ongoing counternarcotics operations involving thousands of military and federal law enforcement personnel. Some parts of Mexico can credibly be described as war zones.”

Stratfor: Tips for survival in Mexico

Stratfor takes exception to the idea that Mexican gangs are going to leave port cities alone because they are so important to the trafficking business that they aren’t going to risk doing anything that would bolster the law-enforcement presence.

It notes:

Many Mexican coastal resort areas better known for their beautiful beaches also depend on their port facilities, and these have come to play a strategic role in the country’s drug trade. Drug trafficking organizations use legitimate commercial ships as well as fishing boats and other small surface vessels to carry cocaine from South America to Mexico, and many cartels often rely on hotels and resorts to launder drug proceeds. Because of the importance of these facilities, the assumption has been that drug trafficking organizations seek to limit violence in such areas not only to protect existing infrastructure but also to avoid the attention that violence affecting wealthy foreign tourists would draw.

This is no longer a safe assumption. The profound escalation of cartel-related conflict in Mexico has created an environment in which deadly violence can occur anywhere, with cartels displaying complete disregard for bystanders whatever their nationality or status. Moreover, the threat to vacationing foreigners is not just the potential of being caught in the crossfire but also of inadvertently drawing the attention and anger of cartel gunmen.

The report warns that drug-cartel gangsters are known to be involved in all orders of mayhem, and will rob, rape, kidnap and commit other crimes based on opportunity.

Spring Break revelers dance at a club during spring break in the resort city of Cancun, Mexico, early Saturday, March 2, 2013. Cancun is one of the No. 1 foreign destination for U.S. college students during spring break. (AP Photo/Israel Leal)

It is true that statistically a visit to Mexico is a safe bet as the odds are nothing will happen.

But there are stories over and over again about horrible things happening to people who one way or another cross paths with the gangs.

Mark Kilroy, 21 years, is a UT student who disappeared in Matamoros Tuesday, March 14th. (1989). Mexican and U.S. authorities have conducted a search on both sides of the border but fear Kilroy was abducted and slain. (AP Laserphoto)

Despite all the valid concerns about Mexico, the most gruesome incident involving a Texas student on spring break in Mexico happened before most of today’s revelers were even born.

Mark Kilroy was snatched off the streets of the border city of Matamoros and was ritualistically killed on the so-called Devil Ranch.

One of his killers, Sara Aldrete, remains in a Mexico City prison, where I interviewed her in 2004.

No discussion about violence in Mexico would be complete without noting that for many Mexicans, it is the United States that is a house of horrors They look at the Aurora movie theater attack and the Sandy Hook elementary attack, among other massacres, as brutality that just doesn’t happen in Mexico. That is to say, they urge caution when pointing a finger south and asking how things can be so out of control.