Where The Early Vote Stands On Election Day

Voters streamed into auditor’s offices across Iowa on Monday, getting their vote in one day before Election Day arrived. Long lines were seen in Polk, Black Hawk, Johnson, Linn and Scott counties. Voters who still had their absentee ballots hopefully brought them into auditor’s offices or planned on taking them to the polls – sending them in at this point means they won’t arrive on time.

The Secretary of State’s office released their usual early vote report Monday afternoon. In 2012 they also gave an update on Election Day, so it’s possible we get one more bit of information on the all-important early vote statistics.

Here’s where we’re at now, compared to this point in 2012:

Voted Now

Voted Then

Diff

Dem

260,222

281,966

92%

GOP

218,204

215,439

101%

NP

149,816

174,850

86%

Barack Obama won Iowa in 2012 by 90,000 votes. Democrats lead in the early vote this year by 42,018. They led in 2012 at this point by 66,527. Considering the early vote made up 43% of the vote in 2012, you can see how Hillary Clinton can still pull off a win in Iowa with these numbers, it would just be very, very close. And from the numbers that Starting Line has seen, Democrats’ early voters are much more likely to be sporadic-voting people (as in, they don’t always turn out) than the Republican early voters.

But the other important thing to consider is the No Party voters. These broke well for Democrats in 2012 in the early vote (Obama won the early vote registration comparison – Democrats to Republicans – by about 66,000, but he won the actual early vote by nearly 90,000. So clearly the No Party voters favored him as well). So to have them only at 86% could be concerning for Democrats.

However, it’s not all great news for Republicans. The Iowa GOP constantly touted their increased focus on the early vote this year. And yet in a cycle where Iowa is becoming more red thanks to Donald Trump on the ballot, they’ve only increased their early vote total by 3,000. Yes, the Democratic advantage has been reduced by about 24,000, and that’s not nothing. But I think they would like to see an even bigger advantage. Republicans may have had a great plan and their field staffers may have done their best, but this is what happens when the Trump campaign doesn’t invest early on to the ground game.

The final result may be determined by how independent voters break, and recent polling doesn’t show that going too well for Democrats.

Another interesting number to look at is the return rates. Democratic insiders played off the very poor early numbers in September by insisting it was all part of a strategy designed at hitting voters at exactly the right time. Collect a bunch of absentee ballot requests early and you risk the voters forgetting they asked for one, making it harder to get those ballots turned in. It seems like that strategy worked out, at least in the return rates.

Reqested

Returned

Return %

Dem

283,686

260,222

92%

GOP

233,674

218,204

93%

NP

165,623

149,816

90%

For comparison’s sake, at this point in 2012 Democrats had a return rate of 90%, Republicans were at 94% and No Party’s at 88%. So both Democrats and No Party returns are better. Even an increase in the return rate by two points is no small matter. 2% of this year’s Democratic numbers is 5,674 votes.

The other big advantage of a better return rate is that your volunteers can focus more on getting people out on Election Day, instead of having to chase down absentee ballots that never come in.

Will the different strategy all even out in the end? Who the hell knows. But here’s the bottom line: Iowa Democrats’ ground game has put Hillary Clinton in a position to win on Election Day. Not by the same margin that Barack Obama did in 2012, not by any means. Swing voters in Eastern Iowa moving to the right may decide the day, but at least there’s a decent chance for a Clinton victory, despite the dour polls.

Now let’s take one last look at the legislative districts. Here’s how early voting finished in the senate districts:

District

Senator/Rep

Ds Voted

Rs Voted

Diff

SD 08

Gronstal/Dawson

4132

3460

672

SD 26

Wilhelm/Brown

4415

4096

319

SD 28

Breitbach/Heikes

4751

5129

-378

SD 30

Danielson/Sadler

6023

4734

1289

SD 32

Schoenjahn/Johnson

4229

3887

342

SD 34

Mathis/Gadehla

5456

4059

1397

SD 36

Sodders/Edler

4556

4075

481

SD 42

Taylor/Graber

5237

4086

1151

SD 46

Brase/Lofgren

5133

4730

403

SD 48

Zumbach/Peterson

3579

3767

-188

Mathis and Danielson maintain their huge, likely insurmountable lead in voting in their districts. Gronstal still leads by a good amount in his, while the other competitive districts are likely too close for comfort.

Tons of volunteer efforts have been sent into the swing legislative districts for the final push. Here’s how much the Democratic early vote advantage changed in each district from Friday to today:

District

Senator/Rep

Diff Change

SD 08

Gronstal/Dawson

-20

SD 26

Wilhelm/Brown

-55

SD 28

Breitbach/Heikes

-352

SD 30

Danielson/Sadler

-100

SD 32

Schoenjahn/Johnson

-224

SD 34

Mathis/Gadehla

44

SD 36

Sodders/Edler

13

SD 42

Taylor/Graber

-40

SD 46

Brase/Lofgren

-43

SD 48

Zumbach/Peterson

-319

Republicans must have collected a lot of ballots in Schoenjahn’s district, causing Schoenjahn to really backslide on his early vote advantage, likely adding to the fears that this is one Democrats will lose tonight. But Democrats mostly held steady in many of their other key districts, and even picked up a few more in Sodders’ race.

Now to the House, where things are a little more interesting:

District

Senator/Rep

Ds Voted

Rs Voted

Diff

HD 26

Ourth/Snodgrass

3343

2801

542

HD 37

Landon/Phillips

2894

2936

-42

HD 38

Koester/Matson

2723

2169

554

HD 39

Highfill/Morris

3070

3080

-10

HD 42

Cownie/Celsi

3302

2432

870

HD 43

Hagenow/Konfrst

3521

2382

1139

HD 51

Bloomingdale/Hejhal

1844

1995

-151

HD 55

Bergan/Ritter

2966

2717

249

HD 56

Ruff/Hager

1785

2412

-627

HD 57

Stetcher/Lundgren

3307

2345

962

HD 58

McKean/Kean

2643

1823

820

HD 60

Rogers/Kroeger

3049

2749

300

HD 68

Rizer/Donahue

2900

1975

925

HD 88

Kerr/Drew

2029

2050

-21

HD 91

Carlson/Weise

2515

2547

-32

HD 92

Paustian/Krumweide

2618

2183

435

HD 95

Zumbach/Whitehead

1928

1511

417

Konfrst maintains her huge early vote lead – it’s increasingly likely that Majority Leader Hagenow’s time in the Iowa House comes to an end tonight. The numbers are looking particularly good for Donahue and Kean as well, while Celsi should get a boost from early voting Democrats as well.

For the Republican pick-up districts, Ruff will be a far easier target than the Stetcher/Dunkel open seat in rural Dubuque. Ruff won in 2012 despite being down in the early vote registration numbers, but a 627 disadvantage may be too much to overcome. Northeast Iowa is very swingy, and it’s not entirely clear which way it’s going with Trump, but this corner of Iowa isn’t looking good for Democrats this year.

Here’s how things changed since Friday:

District

Senator/Rep

Diff Change

HD 26

Ourth/Snodgrass

-53

HD 37

Landon/Phillips

-299

HD 38

Koester/Matson

-51

HD 39

Highfill/Morris

-193

HD 42

Cownie/Celsi

91

HD 43

Hagenow/Konfrst

52

HD 51

Bloomingdale/Hejhal

-61

HD 55

Bergan/Ritter

-109

HD 56

Ruff/Hager

-243

HD 57

Dunkel/Stetcher

62

HD 58

McKean/Kean

100

HD 60

Rogers/Kroeger

-119

HD 68

Rizer/Donahue

98

HD 88

Kerr/Drew

-120

HD 91

Carlson/Weise

-29

HD 92

Paustian/Krumweide

-14

HD 95

Zumbach/Whitehead

-102

Republicans really boosted their numbers in their redder suburban districts, like Ankeny and Johnston. But in the more swing suburban areas, like Marion and West Des Moines, Democrats built upon their already-solid leads, no easy task in the final days.

Again, Republicans must have been busy in the Northeast corner of Iowa, where they saw big gains in both House districts there. Ryan Drew also lost some ground in his bid for a surprise upset win in Southeast Iowa – had there been enough funds to go around and some extra staff, you might have seen a Democratic ground game build a bigger early vote lead here.

If there’s another early vote update from the Secretary of State, I’ll update this post later in the day. Otherwise, make sure to tune into WOI/ABC 5 tonight – I’ll be giving analysis on the Statehouse races from 9:45 to 10:45.

3 thoughts on “Where The Early Vote Stands On Election Day”

Just saw the announcement of Trump challenge in Nevada. This is only the beginning of the end to what that child yes child wil pull. That he even was able to reach this position says more about our country then anything–reckless disregard; idiocy.