Budget 2020 Analysis8 min read

Budget 2020 Analysis8 min read

CCS Disability Action National Senior Policy Analyst Sam Murray breaks down the numbers for Budget 2020 across the portfolios related to disability. Disabled people and their whānau have rightfully demanded better support and this budget looks to be a strong step in the right direction.

Disability Support Services Budget Breakdown

The Government’s budget for 2020 is out. I thought
you might be interested in some info on the Ministry of Health’s Disability
Support Services.

I go off the actual
budget documents themselves and ignore press releases, so it might be
different from what’s in the media.

Feel free to share this summary with anyone you think might be
interested.

In
a nutshell, there are large increases in spending.

The Ministry of Health estimates that it spent $1,599.2 million on Disability Support Services in 2019/20 (the financial year that has just been). This is $254.6 million more than they planned to spend. They had planned to spend $1,344.6 million.

This coming financial year (2020/21), they
plan to spend$1,706.6
million. This is $107.3
million more than they estimate they spent last year.

Here it is in graph form:

And table form:

Planned and estimated spending on the Ministry of
Health’s Disability Support Services in millions

Planned spending

Estimated actual spending

2007/08

$834

2008/09

$880

$890

2009/10

$895

$932

2010/11

$970

$974

2011/12

$1,028

$1,028

2012/13

$1,053

$1,036

2013/14

$1,103

$1,089

2014/15

$1,118

$1,109

2015/16

$1,158

$1,167

2016/17

$1,166

$1,183

2017/18

$1,208

$1,238

2018/19

$1,269

$1,352

2019/20

$1,345

$1,599

2020/21

$1,707

Below
is what happened with spending in different areas between 2018/19 and 2019/20:

Residential services went up by $197.3 million to $777.9 million.

Community Care services went up by $119 million to $477.4 million.

Environmental services (equipment and housing modifications) went down by $0.7 million to $167 million.

Funded Family Care went up by $4.8 million to $16.6 million.

Other disability supports went down by $72.8 million to just over $160.5 million.

Learning Support Budget breakdown

Here is the Budget information
on the Ministry of Education’s learning support. Learning support covers
supports like the Ongoing Resourcing Scheme (ORS), the Early Intervention
Service, Resource Teachers, and more.

In the year been (2019/20),
the Government estimates it spent $846.0 million
on learning support (the Government had planned to spend $798.7 million).

This means the Government
spend $47.3 million
more than they planned to.

For the upcoming year (2020/21), the
Government plans to spend $927.5 million
on learning support. This is $81.5 million more than they spent last year.

Below is a graph of planned and
estimated actual spending back to 2010. You might notice the recent trend is
very similar to Disability Support Services (demand for support is growing).

Here is the same information
in table form:

Planned spending

Actual spending

2010/11

$545,684,000

$554,778,000

2011/12

$574,265,000

$576,635,000

2012/13

$599,410,000

$603,416,000

2013/14

$605,212,000

$610,808,000

2014/15

$602,783,000

$619,827,000

2015/16

$635,065,000

$637,654,000

2016/17

$657,945,000

$670,612,000

2017/18

$676,733,000

$699,000,000

2018/19

$740,301,000

$758,479,000

2019/20

$798,681,000

$845,996,000

2020/21

$927,521,000

Wait times
for the Early Invention Service

In the year been, the Government estimates that children waited 105 calendar days on average to access the Early Intervention Service. The Government hopes to lower this to 90 days in the year to come (still too high in my books).

Social Development Budget

Community participation and vocational services

For the year been (2019/20),
the Government estimates it spent $85.4 million on community participation
and vocational services (the Government had planned to spend $82.6
million). So, the Government spent $7.9 million more than they planned to.

For 2020/21, the Government plans to spend $90.5 million on community participation and vocational services.
This is $5.2 million more than they spent last year.

Here is the same information
in table form:

Planned spending

Estimate actual spending

2015/16

$77,468,000

$78,400,000

2016/17

$83,900,000

$82,631,000

2017/18

$81,160,000

$81,160,000

2018/19

$81,160,000

$80,866,000

2019/20

$82,642,000

$85,376,000

2020/21

$90,542,000

Note the pay equity settlement
comes under a separate budget line. In 2019/20 Government spent $11 million
on pay equity for Ministry of Social Development funded services. In 2020/21,
they plan to spend $10.3 million.

Child Disability Allowance

For the year been (2019/20),
the Government estimates it spent $102.2 million on the Child
Disability Allowance (the Government had planned to spend $100.0
million). So, the Government spent $2.2 million more than they planned to.

For 2020/21, the Government plans to spend $106.9 million on the Child Disability Allowance. This is $4.7 million more than they spent last year.

Disability Allowance

For the year been (2019/20),
the Government estimates it spent $295.0
million on the Disability Allowance (the Government had planned to spend $290.7
million). So, the Government spent $4.3 million more than they planned to.

For 2020/21, the Government plans to spend $312.4 million on the Disability Allowance. This is $17.4 million more than they spent last year.

Here is a graph showing past
and planned spending on the two disability allowances:

Here is the same information
in table form:

Child Disability Allowance

Disability Allowance

2010/11

$96,004,000

$314,366,000

2011/12

$90,384,000

$312,208,000

2012/13

$86,081,000

$298,566,000

2013/14

$84,016,000

$294,553,000

2014/15

$84,972,000

$292,358,000

2015/16

$86,086,000

$290,770,000

2016/17

$88,260,000

$288,762,000

2017/18

$92,379,000

$286,641,000

2018/19

$96,281,000

$289,275,000

2019/20

$102,211,000

$294,991,000

2020/21 (planned)

$106,891,000

$312,399,000

2021/22 (planned)

$109,342,000

$304,319,000

2022/23 (planned)

$112,534,000

$298,076,000

2023/24 (planned)

$116,361,000

$297,520,000

Supported Living Payment

For the year been (2019/20),
the Government estimates it spent $1,644.9 million on the Supported
Living Payment (the Government had planned to spend $1,589.4 million).
So, the Government spent $55.6 million more than they planned to.

For 2020/21, the Government plans to spend $1,806.8 million on the Supported Living Payment. This is $161.9 million more than they spent last year.

Here is the same information
in table form:

Supported Living Payment

2011/12

$1,465,752,000

2012/13

$1,391,858,000

2013/14

$1,422,187,000

2014/15

$1,511,955,000

2015/16

$1,523,917,000

2016/17

$1,529,520,000

2017/18

$1,540,196,000

2018/19

$1,555,511,000

2019/20

$1,644,905,000

2020/21 (planned)

$1,806,819,000

2021/22 (planned)

$1,850,498,000

2022/23 (planned)

$1,936,672,000

2023/24 (planned)

$2,031,230,000

Jobseeker Support

I don’t usually do the
Jobseeker Support Payment because it does not separate out the Health Condition
and Disability version.

I thought people might be
interested this time though, especially in the Government’s estimates for the
next few years (because it will be based on what the Government thinks will
happen with unemployment).

The Government is planning for
a large spike from estimated spending of $2,373.1 million for 2019/20 to
$4,521.1 million in 2020/21. This is an increase of $2,148.1 million.