In Deep South, Obama sees new shades of blue

Conservative Dems a factor in strategy

July 13, 2008|By Dahleen Glanton, Tribune correspondent

ATLANTA — At first glance, the political mailer showing Sen. Barack Obama standing next to a U.S. Senate candidate, both with microphones in hand, gives the impression that the two men were hitting the campaign trail together.

A banner across the top reads, "Yes We Can!" On the back, Vernon Jones, one of five candidates in Tuesday's Georgia Democratic primary, outlines how his ideas mirror those of Obama. What it does not say is that he voted for President George W. Bush twice.

Jones, the chief executive of DeKalb County in suburban Atlanta, said he was not trying to mislead voters by digitally adding Obama's image to the flier that was mailed to thousands of homes. But Obama never approved the use of his image and, his campaign said, he has no intention of endorsing any candidate in the primary.

Jones is the latest Democrat to grasp an opportunity to latch on to the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee. Analysts said this trend will likely continue through the general election campaign, notably in the South, which has become increasingly Republican and where Obama has said he will compete hard.

Obama recently began running television ads in 18 states, including Georgia, North Carolina and Virginia. While political observers say there is a chance he could succeed in Virginia and North Carolina, it is less likely that he can break the Republican stranglehold in Deep South states.

"We will have a campaign organization in every single state because we believe voters across the country deserve to hear what is at stake in this election," said Obama spokeswoman Amy Brundage.

Southern Democratic politicians are seizing what they see as the best opportunity for victory since Bill Clinton won Louisiana, Georgia, Arkansas, Kentucky and Tennessee in 1992.

Lending his name

In some cases, Obama has been a willing participant in local ad campaigns. Recently, he recorded a radio ad for U.S. Rep. John Barrow, a conservative white Democrat who is seeking to retain his seat in Savannah, Ga. The endorsement has been controversial because Barrow, who has supported many of Bush's programs, is facing a primary challenge from an African-American state senator, Regina Thomas, in a district that is 45 percent black.

In previous congressional campaigns Barrow has run ads touting his support for several of Bush's policies including the Iraq War.

"This endorsement doesn't mean that Sen. Obama agrees with me on everything or that I agree with him on everything," said Barrow, a superdelegate who came out for Obama after his district voted for Obama overwhelmingly in Georgia's presidential primary. "But it does mean that we agree on a whole lot more than we disagree."

While Obama's support could sway black voters to Barrow, Charles Bullock, a political scientist at the University of Georgia, said it is not as clear what Obama gains from making an endorsement in a primary, a move he said is unusual for a presidential candidate.

"Perhaps it was a sense of obligation because Barrow endorsed him at an important time during his primary," Bullock said. "You could also argue that to maintain the Democratic Party in Congress, it makes a lot of sense for them to welcome conservative or moderate Democrats rather than force them to embrace national platforms. In some cases to win in the South, a Democrat has to be conservative."

In Georgia, for example, Democrats have registered about 300,000 new voters this year. Still, to win the state, three things would have to happen, said Merle Black, a political scientist at Emory University.

African-Americans, who represent 28 percent of the Georgia electorate, would have to turn out in force. Libertarian presidential candidate Bob Barr, a former Republican congressman, would have to win 5 percent or more of the white vote. And Republican Sen. John McCain would have to receive far less than the 76 percent of white votes that Bush got in 2004.

"If it comes down to Georgia, I think Obama has already won the election," Black said.

Whites needed for victory

In the Deep South states -- Alabama, Georgia, Louisiana, Mississippi and South Carolina -- which have large populations of African-Americans, voting is often racially polarized, said David Bositis, senior research associate at the Joint Center for Political and Economic Studies.

Obama "does have a very strong potential to change the map, but in the Deep South, it is more difficult," said Bositis. "It's not like race does not matter in those states. It does. To win those states, he has to win more white voters, and it is not clear that he can."

In some conservative districts in Georgia, white Democratic candidates have tried to distance themselves from Obama, refusing to endorse him and staying away from his campaign events. Some Republicans, meanwhile, have tried to associate Democratic opponents with Obama in an attempt to lure white voters to the GOP.

Carrie Cantrell, a spokeswoman for the Republican State Leadership Committee, which works to elect local Republicans, said the key to winning in November is to keep the focus on local issues.

"As long as our candidates focus on local issues and our folks in office understand they have more impact on individuals' lives ... we feel very good about the winning in November," said Cantrell.