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Thailand are not capable of straight set wins and their numbers clearly show that. They dropped sets against Honk Kong and New Zealand, to Iraq two days ago and two sets to Oman two years ago. They have just one straight set win in the last 22 games (over Korea's U23 team). Pakistan have less games but they lost in straight sets to team that are better than them (Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, Iran, Taiwan and Korea). They beat Oman, who caused problems for Thailand, in straight sets, Iraq 3-1, The only problem here is the two sets Pakistan lost to Hong Kong (Thailand beat them 3-1). Those two sets can be forgiven as they found mental strength and trashed the opponents in the next two sets. They played at the last Asian championship two years ago. Pakistan had a 2-0 lead after two sets and Thailand managed to turn things around and win. There are some problems with Pakistan but I don't see any difference in teams since that match. I think this handicap shouldn't even exist because the difference between teams is not that big.
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Canada sensationally won spot there in World League in early July but that teams has nothing to do with this one. Eleven of their players are from Canadian universities. This team has never played together before. On the other hand, Venezuela have been together since May. In 6 games they recorded two wins (Kazakhstan and Greece) and three defeats (Germany, Qatar and Estonia). One defeat was the consequence of them not arriving in Frankfurt on time which resulted in Austria being handed a straight sets win. Unlike the home team, Venezuela have the team from Wold League, plus receiver Barett. Venezuela didn't play the Panamerican cup last year and in 2015, they won spot 3 by beating Canada in a game for spot 3 3-2. They had a slightly better team back then but today's match will be a clash between a university team and a team that has been together for years. Interestingly, they played their first game at Panamerican cup against the US, who also had a university team and won 3-1. I think Venezuela will win this. The bet is widely-available.
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Cuba lost a few players during the World League in Finland to rape charges. They decided to not play World League this season and that also resulted in a resigned of the team. The Dominicans, on the other hand, have a complete team and a brilliant Cuban coach Samuels. As for h2h meetings, Cuba have 5 wins in 6 games and regardless of some convincing wins, they won in straight sets just once (Panam Cup 2014). Cuba had Cepeda and Uriarte back then, as well as Macias. The Dominican Republic got at least a set in all the other matches and even won the last one 3-1. Cuba lost a set in WC Qualifiers 2014 with a complete team. Things will be much more complicated for them now. They lack experience and games, while the Dominicans will go 100%. I would go with the Dominican's win but them taking a set is definitely something we can't miss out on here.
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These are the best teams of group A and this meeting will clearly decide who gets the top spot. Neither team has changed since World League much and since Qatar had 3-3 and Kazakhstan 1-5, that says a lot. Also, Qatar played some serious games when preparing for this. Their mixed lineup lost to Oman 2-3 but they trashed Pakistan in straight sets (25-21, 25-19, 25-16) when complete. I'm talking about Pakistan because Kazakhstan won the WC pre-qualifying game against them in 5 sets last may. Kazakhstan played no preparation games for this. They have no previous meetings with Qatar but they played some of the same opponents over the past few years. Last year, Qatar (a teams slightly different than this one) beat Greece 3-0. Kazakhstan lost 0-3 to them. This year we have meetings with Venezuela and the same outcomes. Qatar beat them 3-1, Kazakhstan lost 3-1. Both teams beat Tunisia 3-1 but overall, Qatar left a better impression. Stakes are high here and because of everything, I'll go with a win for Qatar.
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Belgium displayed power yesterday by trashing Slovakia 26-24, 25-13, 25-15. The first set was quite close but the Belgians had 21-13. The fact Slovakia made a comeback was more a consequence of their lack of focus. There are a few reasons for this under, the first one definitely being the Slovakia match. Belgium trashed them (108 points) and that same Slovakia beat Belarus in three out of three preparation games (3-1, 3-1). Belarus won one in straight sets. We have the games with Serbia this summer, Belarus won easily in Zagreb (129) while Belgium won in Novi Sad in straight sets (136) only to lose in straight sets in Tehran a week later. Two years ago, Belgium and Belarus met in group stage at Eurpvolley. Belgium won in straight sets and recorded 127 points. Belgium are the same as back then, while Belarus didn't have two players. However, Belgium should not suit Belarus at all. We need to say that Belarus had problems with Denmark, Switzerland and Norway and Belgium limited Portugal to 124 points, Israel to 127 and Latvia to 133. Those are teams similar to Belgium. After Germany had a slip yesterday, Belgium have an open road to WC and I don't think they will miss out on that. The tip is available at bet365, bet-at-home and so on...
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The difference in quality is huge here. Australians are after their 6th straight World Championship and belong to top 15 teams in the world. New Zealand, on the other hand, are one of worst teams in Asia. They played Tonga (3-0, first set 28-26), Fiji (3-1) and struggled even in those matches. They beat Australian junior team Center of Excellence and Canberra Heat who are not good at all. The last time New Zealand played WC qualifiers was back in 2014 when Korea limited them to 36, Japan to 44 and Qatar, who are much better today, to 65 points. Only Australians managed to get into the second round at WC alongside Iran and that is the difference in quality. Looking at this year, Australia beat respectable teams like the Netherlands (3-0), Finland, Slovakia, Japan. New Zealand are nowhere near those teams. The margin is set pretty low. Australia rarely won at under 123,5 because they haven't played opponents like these in the last 2-3 years. However, I don't see a way for New Zealand to go over 43-45 points here (15 per set) and that under seems like a good option too. New Zealand team under is a very good option as well. A straight set win is a sure thing. An alternative can be New Zealand team under or the Australia 75,5 under. The bet is available to bet-at-home, bwin, Unibet.
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Canada are without their top player Vernon-Evans. Without him, they are 40-50 percent weaker since he is the one who makes the difference. On the other hand, the Czechs are complete and now again have a player who is to them what Evans is to Canada. They played Poland in a test match and lost 1-4 while the Canadians played no games after finishing third in the Panamerican Cup late in May (with Evans on the team).

These teams have no previous meetings but we can make some comparisons. The US, Cuba and Brazil are teams that beat Canada easily even with Evans on. They also played Turkey - the US won 3-2, the Czechs lost in straight sets without their top players . Italy beat Cuba and Brazil in straight sets while Cuba and Brazil beat Canada easily. The Czechs will have the home court advantage which cannot be ignored but at the same time, this is a game for the QFs since they have only Morocco and Poland left to play.
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The Dutch cannot afford to slip today. They trashed Korea by 22 in three sets, played great and focused and didn't give the opponents a chance. On the other hand, Slovakia recorded a bad defeat to the Czech Republic in straight sets (-19) which is not unexpected since they are without some important players. They stand a chance of reaching the FF of Division 2 but Kohut and Christiansky are greatly missed, as we say yesterday. Patak is not at 100 percent and Kubs seems to be on holiday mode.

Slovakia lost by 19 yesterday and the Dutch trashed their opponents 25-19, 25-15 and 25-15 last week. Also, both teams have wins over Portugal. Slovakia beat them home (complete) while the Dutch beat them on neutral grounds. When setting the odds, the bookies took their last meetings from recent WC qualifiers as a reference. The Dutch won that 3-2 (25-27, 26-24, 22-25, 25-16, 15-9). However, that result suited both teams and according to results, it was horrible to watch the Dutch make fun of their opponents and the match. Slovakia had Kohut back then (seven points, block 0-for-1), Christianski (14) and fully fit Patak (22) but the Dutch still covered the handicap. That is why this deserved top stake because I expected it to be at -15,5 at least. Since it's not widely available, I'll go with 5/10.
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Slovakia are without team captain and most experienced player Kohut, starting receiver Christianski and both liberos (Turis and Ogurcak). Zhe other starting receiver Patak is not fully fit. Being without those players is a massive problem for Slovakia because their subs and just not that level. The Czech Republic are with the same team from last week apart from receiver Dzavorok who didn't play much anyway. Both teams have a chance of reaching the playoffs and the Czech Republic need to beat both them and Korea to face the Dutch in the last match for the Final Four. When it comes to comparable matches, both teams played with the Portuguese and beat them in straight sets but the Slovaks had Kohut, Patak and Christianski to count on. The Czech Republic beat Finland 3-1 (+5) at the first tournament while Slovakia lost in straight sets in Helsinki last week (-18). They played last season in World League where the Czechs won 3-2 in Bratislava. Kohut recorded 12 points, Patak 21 and Christianski 14 in that match. I'll go with the -2,5 point handicap because it should be at least -8,5 given the absent players.
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Macedonia are after their third European League season and finally want to win the final after losing the last two. Still, we need to see if this team has enough quality to reach the Final Four since they are without three very important players. Granted, Simovski didn't play last season either but setter Despotovski and best middle blocker Josifov have. I daresay the team is 30 percent weaker without Despitovski and Josifoc. Also, they didn't play a single test match which makes the 1,05 odds at them ridiculous. As for Azerbaijan, they played the Islamic Solidarity Games and reached the final. They lost 5 out of 6 matches there but France, Germany, Turkey and Ukraine are just better. It was only the French who trashed them while they did well against other opponents. They now want to at least get through to the Final Four and since they already have 10 matches played, they should have better rhythm than Macedonia. There are no comparable matches but everything suggests we should go with this tip. I think this handicap should not even exist. It should be at -1,5 sets. I would put 1,50 at Azerbaijan max. The bet is available at bet365. You can also go with over 140,5, Azerbaijan team over and points counter-handicap (+17,5).
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Estonia are in the race for Final Four and that is what matters here. They need to go after wins that get them three points (straight sets or 3-0). They play home and are definitely top of Division 3 when it comes to quality. Alongside Germany, they are the best team. Qatar beat Greece last week and went on to suffer bad defeats to Spain (1-3) and Mexico (0-3). For comparison's sake, Estonia trashed Spain in a friendly just before the start of the WC qualifiers (22-25, 25-16, 25-16, 25-22). In the meeting between B teams, they did even better to win in straight sets. Spain won only the last game when Estonia played with B/C team. Spain beat Qatar by 22, Mexico beat them by 14 and I think Estonia are better than both of those. In EC qualifiers, Estonia have +20 and +21 with Romania and Hungary in 4 sets, +6 with Montenegro in straight sets. They lost to Russia 1-3 after a 1-0 and 21-18 lead. Qatar cannot be compared to those teams but I think they are close to Romania and Hungary. This Handicap is a great option. The set handicap for Estonia is an option as well. Realistically, this is 10/10 but because of the limited availability, I'll go with 5/10.
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Compared to the qualifiers, Finland will be without 6 key players.Their replacements are players without or with very little experience on the national team and it seems like World League won't mean much to them this season. On the other hand, Slovenia are bursting with confidence after getting in the World Cup. Even though this is their debut in Division 2, the Slovenians want to make it to the Final Four and then Divison 1. They have made massive progress in the past few years and hiring coach Kovac proved to be a great option. I have no doubt their approach will be good today. Finland have neither experience nor quality to stand up to Slovenia. Sets handicap is a great option for them, as well as points handicap. There are basically no comparable examples. Their h2h games from 2013 mean nothing but the missing players at Finland make Slovenia much more of a favorite than the odds suggest.
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Belarus fielded their top team against Serbia yesterday. They were headed for the defeat and when their coach realized that, he put all the starters on the bench. The reason for them to be well-rested today and the risk they ran of being trashed in the last season is good enough for me to believe they will go full throttle today. They need to make up for a total of 21 points and the straight set loss. Norway put up a good fight but as soon as the opponents served well, they got lost against Croatia's modest block. They won the set just because the Croatians were stupid. Norway are without Kvalen and Takvam, two top players and the only professionals. They are now to face the Belarus wall on the net. There is no question about which team is better here. Belarus are the main competitors for spot 2 and after what I've seen, their motivation won't be questionable. Since Belarus played Croatia tomorrow, I believe they will try and settle this as soon as possible. Norway should not have any problems today.
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The difference in quality between Finland and Cyprus is immense and this margin seems too high. Finland will fight the Czech Republic for the top spot. They will face the weakest teams in the first rounds. The first opponents are Cyprus, the team that is not even the best among teams if its quality. At European Championship for Small Countries, Luxembourg limited them to 17 points in two out of 3 sets. They ended up winning by 18 and that says it all. We don't have more recent or more relevant games but Finland play World League, regularly make it into EC and have a lot of players. It's hard to imagine Cyprus getting more than 17 points per set here. I'm sure they will stay at 15 or under. Cyprus are better than Northern Ireland, whom they meet tomorrow and I believe their approach will be good. The Czechs and Spaniards have a tougher schedule in the first two rounds, which is something Finland can only profit from. The bet is available with bet365, betathome, marathon and so on.
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The Panamerican Cup will serve as qualifiers for the U21 WC which is played this summer. Only the best team from the North, Central and South America will go to the championship. Given the big difference in quality, Cuba and Brazil will probably take two top spots. Chile and Puerto Rico meeting is interesting as it secures spot two and avoids Canada (hosts) in QFs. Chile opened the competitions yesterday with a straight-sets defeat to Cuba but Kuba are the biggest competitors for the gold here. Chile came here with the U19 team which played the Panamerican final in March this year (0-3 Mexico), with two U21 internationals. Puerto Rico are here with the U19 team as well. They won spot three at U19 Panamerican cup. Compared to that team, they top setter is out, while Chile don't have middle blocker Rusch. The h2h in Panamerican final is important here. Chile won in in straight sets (25:17, 25:21, 25:21) and they should be even better now. The game of March 24th displays the difference in quality, there is also motivation, somewhat more experienced players for Chile and that is enough for me to go with the handicap. Chile could secure a spot at WC because they should be there based on FIVB ranking. Since there is no official conformation, I won't pay that any mind.
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There are four teams at the small countries EC, the hosts Iceland, and Northern Iceland, Cyprus and Luxembourg. The Cypriots easily beat N.Ireland yesterday, but the Irish are amateurs, and those 3-0 are no big surprise. Luxembourg beating Iceland 3-1 was a surprise because they won by 26 points difference total. Their best player Ryhlicki only had six points, because he was being spared for this duel. They had 13 aces, seven blocks, and left a great impression. Luxembourg are doing great here, with Zuidberg to help, with the same lineup for years, and a clear plan. The Cypriots pointed out Papadopoulos, Pamvohaikos, and Luxembourg have two players who are playing the CL, and are worth gold here. I don't know how the bookies based their odds here because there aren't many matches to compare this with, only their duel two years ago at this same competition. Luxembourg won 3-2 at home, but they made a lot of progress since, and I can't say the same for the Cypriots. Luxembourg gave a hard time to Austria in the EC qualifiers last season, they beat Lithuania, and played more big games than Cyprus. I'm really convinced that Luxembourg should be the favorite here, so there should be no handicap. If they win this, they'll definitely get the gold because they're playing N. Ireland in the last round.
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The league playoff in the Plus league this season will be played by only four first-placed teams, following the system used in the Champions League. So, a 3-0 win or 3-1 would bring three, 3-2 two, and losing 2-3 one point, and the total result from two games will give the finalists. In case it's evened out, a golden set will be played. So, every won/lost will matter, and no doubt both teams will give 120%.Jastrzebski coming to the Top 4 is a surprise for many, but they did make a great team with Kamp, Hidalgo, Muzaj, and recently they hired the German Schwartz. Actually, they came back to where they belong after two bad seasons where they were focused more on patching up things financially. ZAKSA will be defending the title as the "one", but they have right to be afraid of Jastrzebski. The coach De Giorgi still can't use the injured Tilie, which is a handicap because Buszek is not on the same level as he is.Jastrzebski and ZAKSA played three official and one friendly game this season, and every one ended with high numbers:

So, 226, 209 and 193 points in the official games, and 198 points in the friendly one. Exactly half of the sets played (9/18) were won thanks to the difference in points, and that shows that the difference between these two teams is not big. Add to these numbers the games these two teams played against the other semifinalists (SKRA and Resovia), Jastrzebski had 181 points against Resovia twice, ZAKSA 205 and 137 in the last game that was irrelevant. With SKRA the same thing, ZAKSA 3/3 (199 in four sets, 204 and 196 points), Jastrzebski 2/2 (207 and 214 points), that is 8/9 times over this margin, with the only under being in the game that was irrelevant.All those numbers can definitely not be ignored, and the system of the competition in the semifinal makes sure this will be another game with high numbers, and the margin that was set doesn't correspond neither to the statistic nor the quality of these teams.
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There are several reasons why we should bet on home team's win here and for a higher stake. Ajaccio won the Cup last season, that was their first trophy ever and there is some sentimental value there. Coach Ferrandez said several times that the Cup is their priority, and they showed that in the competition so far. Home court is a big advantage for them, even in less important games, and since today's game is one of the most important in the season, the arena is sold out. They are still having some injury problems, but the situation is stabilizing. Mijailovic got a chance in the last game, Siirila has been fit for 2 weeks, and Petreas could also be back, so only Miranda and Morgando are out. Even in their worst crisis, 15-16 days ago, Ajaccio defeated Toulouse with only 9 players 3-2 away. If we look further, we will see that Ajaccio won the last 5 games and that Toulouse have not won their head-to-head since 2014. Toulouse cannot count on Zagonel today, their captain and most experienced player, and Basic is not completely fit after shoulder injury. Ajaccio's record at home this season is 10-1, they defeated Tours, Chaumont, Toulouse here. Actually their home record is 23-4 if we count in last season, while Toulouse's 2-5 away this season (8-13 with last season) does not seem convincing. Of course both teams are dreaming of the big final in Paris, but Ajaccio seem much closer to that than Toulouse.
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Ploesti and Piatra will play the 13th round match today. Piatra are in a big crisis, both financial and game-wise. Some of their players left, among them top players Laza. Even when he was on the team, they were bottom table on a 1-12 record. On the other hand, this is a very important match for Ploiesti because the three points would see them take spot 4 before Craiova. The Romanian championship isn't typical and there can be no holding back. Plioesta are 5-1 in the championship and 8-1 overall home. Piatra are horribe away, they got just a set in 6 games. That was against the completely redesigned Steaua in the first game. They lost that by 13, to Arcada by 24, in Craiova by 27, to Baia Mare by 17. Even Cluj beat them by 18- They covered the handicap against Caransebes (-9) and Steaua with a better team. The home team didn't really cover this handicap but they have been struggling with injuries since the start of the season and when they were sort of complete, they beat Cluj by 26 and Cluj beat Piatra by 18. They have +16 against Unirea, who also beat Piatra. Last weekend, they trashed Stiinta Bacau away by 18. I think Piatra will lose by 19 to 24 points. Ploesti won by 23 in Piatra and by 30 here last season.
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Russian team's coach Chutcev said that winning this competition is one of the most important goals for his team this season. They were stopped by Verona last season and want to win it this season as the first Russian team. They opened the competition by trashing Shakhtar 3-0, 3-1. What is more important is the point difference (+17 in Belarus, +24 in Russia in spite losing a set). BATE is the third best team int Belarus, just short of Stroitel and Shakhtar, both of whom were trashed by the Russians. For comparisons sake, BATE won one match against Shakhtar 3-2 but won one point less while losing the other one 1-3 by 10 points. That second one was played in Borisov. They will meet Fakel in Mogilev on neutral grounds. BATE and Fakel played last season, also in Challenge Cup. The Russians have +22 in the 3-1 win and +14 in the 3-0 win. That BATE team lost by 36 points combined and three top players are not on the team anymore. The Russians were serious about Shakhtar and they will be serious about BATE as well. That is why I'll take this handicap with higher stake.
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