Class Size Amendment's Support Erodes

October 28, 2002|By Bill Hirschman Education Writer and Staff Writers John Kennedy and Bob Mahlburg contributed to this report.

Pounded by Gov. Jeb Bush's dire warnings of a budgetary meltdown, strong support for a constitutional amendment reducing class size has eroded to what could be a dead heat for the highest-profile issue this fall, a statewide poll shows.

But most supporters of Amendment 9 on the Nov. 5 ballot not only acknowledge it will increase taxes, they support a penny increase in the sales tax to fund it, according to the poll conducted for the South Florida Sun-Sentinel and Orlando Sentinel.

Still, nothing is certain this week as supporters add television commercials to marches, airplane banners, speeches, T-shirts and bumper stickers to persuade voters on the fence to support the class size measure.

What started as a hot button issue -- enjoying support in earlier polls of 60 to 80 percent -- has ratcheted up even higher as Bush and Bill McBride have made education the litmus issue of their campaigns for governor. During the past six weeks, Bush has reminded voters repeatedly that Amendment 9 will force the winning administration to raise taxes, cut programs or both.

Taken after their last debate, the poll of registered voters likely to vote in the Nov. 5 election shows 51 percent of Floridians favor requiring legislators to limit the number of students taught by a single teacher.

The poll says 32 percent of voters oppose the amendment and 17 percent are undecided, with an error margin of plus or minus 4 percent.

The amendment's passage would be in serious danger if 40 percent already opposed it, said Jim Kane, whose Florida Voter organization conducted the poll. "But that's understandable since no one is sure what it's going to cost," Kane said of the proposal, whose price tag has been pegged between $8.5 billion and $27.5 billion.

The news cheered Bush who has hammered the amendment as unrealistic, inflexible and fiscally disastrous. "The more people learn about it, the less they like it," said Bush said at a GOP barbecue in West Palm Beach on Saturday.

But pro-amendment forces were encouraged by the solidity of their support in the face of higher taxes. "That's fantastic because [a sales tax increase] is only one remote possibility for funding it and the least likely," said state Sen. Debbie Wasserman-Schultz, D-Weston, who co-chairs the Coalition to Reduce Class Size.

In fact, many voters are conflicted between the cost and a solution to perceived mediocrity in education. Robert Hydorn wants smaller class size -- his child is a senior in a crowded Titusville classroom. But the Republican, 38, thinks shelling out more money is a dealbreaker because he's convinced the state already has the money.

"We would be ahead of the ballgame if they hadn't taken the state money out of [education] when they put the lottery money in," Hydorn said.

The amendment requires that the Legislature earmark money to reduce the number of children in each classroom by 2010. From pre-kindergarten through third-grade, no more than 18 students could sit in one room. In grades four through eight, 22 students would be allowed. High school classes would be limited to 25 students.

The question has always been how to pay for it and both sides have been vague in their answers.

Proponents suggesting eliminating tax breaks for the wealthy and special interests, plus some kind of tax hike. McBride has suggested a 50-cent-a-pack tax on cigarettes as a first step, but he has not been specific about how his administration would pay for the measure.

Bush, who has said he will not raise taxes to pay for the class size reductions, says existing programs will have to be cut, not just in education but in social service and health care.

But the prospect of higher taxes did not surprise those polled: 73 percent expect it, 14 percent doubted it and 13 percent said they didn't know.

The T-word did not deter all of them either: 42 percent of everyone interviewed support a one-penny increase in the sales tax to pay for the amendment, 49 percent opposed it and 9 percent said they didn't know. The poll shows the results of a heated debate in a state that is struggling with exploding student populations of more than 5,000 this year in Broward County alone.

Grassroots support put the issue on the ballot in the first place. More than 670,000 people signed a petition initiated by state Sen. Kendrick Meek, D-Miami.

His coalition set up phone banks in eight cities including Fort Lauderdale, West Palm Beach and Miami, staffed primarily by teacher and service employee union members.

The group has collected $1.4 million from more than 100 contributors. The heftiest contributors are the National Education Association, the national teacher's union which donated $365,000, and the People for the American Way, a civil liberties group which donated $328,000.