McGovern: Not sure anti-war Dem can win

For Democrats of a certain age, there is no figure more haunting than George McGovern, who ran for president pleading, "Come home, America," but instead was sent home himself with just 38 percent of the vote.

Among those who worry that the lessons of 1972 may still spell trouble for Democrats in 2008 is none other than … George McGovern. He is 84 now, is as opposed to the Iraq war as he was to the one in Vietnam -- and is paying close attention to the race for president.

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"I'm not sure that an anti-war Democrat can win," McGovern said in an interview. "We haven't proved that yet."

"Some people point to the fact that the war in Vietnam was dreadfully unpopular," he said, "but that when I came out for an immediate withdrawal, it helped me win the nomination but not the general election. And there may be some truth about that."

Democrats are heading into the 2008 election with what, at first glance, looks to be a historic opportunity: For the first time in decades, they are facing Republicans on terms of rough parity -- and possibly even superiority -- on national security issues. Polls show the public trusts Democrats as much as or more than Republicans to keep the country safe, a dramatic reversal from President Bush's first term.

These numbers may mean that Democrats have vanquished the ghost of the Vietnam era, when liberal activists won the debate about ending the war but, in the process, gave the party a reputation among many voters for being too dovish to lead on a dangerous planet.

But some political analysts say they believe the McGovern experience could be repeated again, as the party's presidential candidates compete to win the favor of anti-war Democrats while leaving themselves vulnerable to charges of weakness in a general election.

This uncertainty is one reason the leading Democratic candidates are trying to run as hawk and dove simultaneously. Sens. Hillary Rodham Clinton (N.Y.) and Barack Obama (Ill.), for instance, are both moving rhetorically and substantively against the Iraq war while calling for an increased military presence to fight terrorists in Afghanistan.

Democratic strategists believe they have Bush to thank for the reversal in the parties' national security reputations.

"It is a phenomenal change from what has happened in the past," said Jim Margolis, a senior strategist for Obama's campaign. "People see the mistakes that this administration has made, and the impact that it has had on our standing in the world has made it less safe rather than more safe. That's certainly something that helps us going into an election."

The Iraq war's erosion of Bush's and the Republican Party's standing has been stark. In early January 2002, the Gallup Poll found that 65 percent of voters said they believed Republicans would do a better job on military and defense issues, compared to 24 percent who backed Democrats on these issues.

A few days later, White House senior adviser Karl Rove caused a stir when he told a gathering of Republicans about the GOP's political strategy: "We can go to the country on this issue because they trust the Republican Party to do a better job protecting and strengthening America's military might and thereby protecting America." His remarks infuriated Democrats but proved prescient when Republicans made substantial gains in the 2002 midterm elections.

But in October of last year, a few weeks before Republicans were routed in the midterm congressional elections, a New York Times/CBS News poll found the electorate essentially tied -- Republicans 41 percent to Democrats 40 percent -- over who would better fight terrorism. A Washington Post/ABC News poll last month found that 46 percent of voters trusted Democrats in Congress to do a better job handling terrorism, versus 40 percent for Bush.

The GOP advantage on war issues long preceded Bush's presidency. In 1993, at the beginning of Bill Clinton's presidency, Gallup found that 56 percent of voters favored Republicans on military issues compared to 31 percent who thought Democrats would do a better job.

As far back as the Eisenhower years, Gallup was recording consistent preferences for Republicans on military issues.

But if the mood of the country has changed, Democrats are plainly still laboring to project that opposition to Bush's handling of the Iraq war -- most polls show the public agrees with them -- does not mean they are uncomfortable with military force.