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Friday, January 30, 2015

Super Bowl Preview XLIX

Before I get to the Super Bowl breakdown I would like to
share the best NFL Films clip and one of the best clips of all time. It is
about Deacon Jones, a former NFL defensive lineman, who was famous for using a
head slap to move the blocker out of the way. Listen carefully.

Full Disclosure:
I do not like either team. I would be rooting for a bomb threat except it would cancel the Katy Perry concert.

For the second year in a row the Seahawks limp into the
Super Bowl after squeaking out a win. Some would argue they were outplayed in
both games. The Packers blew the game last week and the Referees blew the game
last year (they handed the Seahawks 3 extra possessions, you know they were bad
calls when not one of these were defended by any analyst or pundit).

The Patriots rode their power running game to a blowout win
versus the Colts after narrowly beating the Ravens with trick plays and a rare playoff
4th quarter game winning touchdown drive by Brady. (Brady now has ONLY TWO in his career, Russell Wilson has three).

Brady doesn't throw down field outside the hash marks. But
this is what it might look like if he does on Sunday

The Alex Smith
Factor.

Both teams were in the midst of mediocre seasons when they
lost to the Chiefs. After losing to the Chiefs the Pats are 12-2 and the
Seahawks are 8-0. It appears that getting beaten by a QB that doesn’t throw the
ball further than your average pee wee football quarterback is a huge
motivator.

This is somewhat symbolic because Alex Smith is a poor man’s
Tom Brady. They are both game managers who rely on short passes and can’t
really throw the ball down field (Brady has consistently ranked in the bottom
half of the league in passes 20+ yards throughout his career. Except for a
couple Randy Moss years). Unfortunately for Alex he doesn't have Belichick in his
corner and isn’t able to pad his stats in blow outs like Brady does.

Final Margin of
Victory Between

0-7 Points

15+ Points

TD-INT-PR

TD-INT-PR

Tom Brady

129-74-88.0

194-35-111

Tony Romo (for
comparisons sake)

113-60-93.8

73-28-100.9

Deflate-Gate

According to a report by ESPN's Chris Mortenson, the Patriots had
11 of 12 balls deflated by 2 psi (pounds per square inch). The acceptable level
is 12.5-13.5 psi. These balls were inspected two hours before game time and
then placed in the the care of the Patriots. Sometime between that point and half
time the balls were deflated.

Fact 1: Each team is responsible for their own balls. No matter
what excuse Pats fans make it was still their responsibility. The burden of
proof is not on the NFL to figure out how they deflated the balls. The balls
were deflated while in their care, end of story. It would be like if Marshawn
Lynch played the game with illegal cleats and then said, “I don’t know how that
happened. You can’t prove that I did had anything to do with it.”

Fact 2: Given the weather conditions it would have been
IMPOSSIBLE for the weather to have deflated the balls by 2 psi. Let me say that
again, if you believe in this thing called physics, it was IMPOSSIBLE to have
been caused by the weather. But if you are a Republican and don’t believe in
science then I suggest you read this blog instead.

Fact 5: The Patriots have gotten caught cheating before and were
given the harshest punishment in league history. It is my assumption that the video
evidence of their crime was so egregious that it jeopardized the integrity of
the league. This is why the commissioner chose to destroy the videos. We don’t
destroy evidence in America unless it will be bad for corporate profits. If the
video evidence was innocuous it would have been released to the public.

Brady was lying

Brady has stated before that he likes the ball at 12.5 psi and
doesn’t want anyone else messing with it. If the ball were to be deflated by 1
psi it would be an 8% decrease and 16% for a 2 psi deflation. Do you think
Brady noticed the difference?

Before you answer that, answer these questions:

Do you think,

Jordan wouldn’t notice a basketball deflated by 8-16%?

Armstrong wouldn’t notice his tires were deflated 8-16%?

Bonds wouldn’t notice his bat was 8-16% lighter

Williams wouldn’t notice her racket was 8-16% lighter?

Slash wouldn’t notice his guitar was 8-16% lighter?

Tiger wouldn’t notice his ball was 8-16% denser?

Remember Brady's Press Conference:

Reporter:

Is Tom Brady a cheater?

Tom Brady:

"I don't
believe so. I feel like I've always played within the rules. I would never do
anything to break the rules. I believe in fair play, and I respect the
league."

This answer
reminds me a lot like Jerry Sandusky’s answer when interviewed by Bob Costas.

BOB COSTAS:
Are you sexually attracted to young boys, to underage boys?

JERRY SANDUSKY:
Am I sexually attracted to underage boys?

BOB COSTAS:
Yes.

JERRY SANDUSKY:
(Long pause to think). Sexually attracted, (pause) you know, (pause) I enjoy
young people. (Pause) I love to be around them. (Pause) But no I'm not sexually
attracted to young boys.

The saddest part of this whole scandal is that the ball boy that
helped Brady cheat will be fired for failing to deflate all 12.

Deflate-Gate Prop Bet

Over/under 3 mentions of Deflate-Gate during the Super Bowl.
This seems like an obvious over but it’s a trick. If this were a regular season
game I would go way over, but announcers are more prepared for the Super Bowl. I
expect an exciting game and not too much down time. Even if it is a blowout the
announcers won’t improvise to fill time like they do during the regular season.
They will have many stories and stats chambered. I also expect the league to
instruct them to mention it only once and will be forced to mention it once
more when Lynch does his deflate the football TD celebration.

You can get 3.5-1 odds if you bet on a Lynch crotch grab

Marshawn “Beast Mode”
Lynch is a huge advantage:

If you get your information from mainstream pundits you
might believe that this game rests on the shoulders of Tom Brady. The reality
is both teams rely heavy on the power running games.

The Pats running backs averaged 105 yards per game and
Seahawks RB’s 119 yards per game. Not a substantial difference.

Lynch is billed as the workhorse that carries Seahawks. He boasts an incredible 3 yards after contact this
year, second in the NFL.

However, because the national media wants to prop up Tom
Brady as the reason for all the Patriots success, you don't hear much about Lagarrette Blount carrying the Pat's. Blount was the only player in the NFL better than Lynch with 3.1
yards after contact.

Blount also boasts two of the top 4 rushing playoff
performances in the the last 5 years:
Last year 148 yards 3 td’s
This year 166
yards 4 td’s.

But the Federal Law 5 U.S. Code § 6103, states that no one is allowed to get credit for the Pat's success except Brady.

Defense

You can tell he enjoys his job

You might think Seattle has a huge edge here but check this out these stats since the second half of the season.

Rush Yds/Game

Points/Game

Seahawks

94.4

14

Patriots

85.1

17.4

During this span the Patriots have played against: Manning, Luck twice, Rodgers, Stafford, Flacco

Once again Belichick masterfully turned a struggling defense into one of the best in the league.Brady or Wilson

The Patriots have a great offense. Brady is a product of the offensive system anchored
by Gronkowski. Belichick deserves the majority of the credit for building an
offense around Gronk that allows Brady to make easy reads and throw 7 yard
passes to wide open receivers down the middle of the field. Unfortunately for the Seahawks their weakness is in the middle of the field.

“Through Week
13 of 2013 (starting from when Gronk entered the league), Brady has a 78.5
Total QBR with Gronkowski on the field. Brady has a 59.0 QBR without Gronk on
the field. Brady has thrown 5.1 touchdowns per interception with Gronkowski on
the field. That ratio drops to 2.2 touchdowns per interception with Gronkowski
on the sideline.” - Espn Stats and Info

This stat only
goes through last season, but it doesn't change much since the Patriots offense
took off this season once Gronk was fully healthy.

The Seattle offense scares me. Every week it amazes me how
Seattle manages to put up points. The majority of their big plays seem to be improvised, random or lucky. A sure recipe for disaster. I don't know what to make of their offense. For what it's worth. Wilson makes big plays in big moments.

Prediction

So here we have it. I’m going to predict something that
isn’t predictable. You have two evenly matched teams except the Pats have
the better coach and the best player on the field, Gronkowski.

I would give the edge to the Patriots if it weren't for the
fact that Wilson is better big game QB, as referenced by all the stats above. If you still need more convincing:

Here’s a chart of some prominent NFL QB’s in the post
season:

*complete list below

TD

INT

Rating

Y/A

Rodgers

23

7

101.0

7.71

Brees

24

6

100.7

7.63

Wilson

10

5

96.3

8.69

Romo

8

2

93.0

7.11

Kapernick

7

5

87.3

8.48

Peyton

38

24

88.5

7.27

Brady

49

24

88.5

6.78

These stats include Wilsons awful 4 INT performance last week.

Brady has averaged 21.4 points per game in Super Bowls and
15.5 points in Super Bowls in the last decade. Most notably scoring a meager 17
points with, arguably the best offense of all-time, biggest choke job in NFL
history (when you consider the HUGE point spread and what was at stake).

I am looking forward to a white reporter commenting on how
articulate Wilson or Sherman is.

While
I want to take the Pats I can’t bet on Brady until he breaks trend and shows up
in a big game.

Seahawks win 20-17

More stats provided by RJ Bell:

Pat's haven't won a non home playoff game in 8 years.
Underdogs 6-1 against spread last 7 SB
Pats 4-11 against spread last 15 playoff games
Seahawks 17-3 as dog vs spreadNFL teams scoring 40+ points in the playoffs are on a 4-23 Against The Spread losing run their next game

This may be the first Super Bowl to have the over/under bet
down during the week but still love the under 48.
I also like the half-time under. In the Pats 5 Super Bowls they have not scored in the first quarter.

Happy Super Bowl!!!!!!!

I will now share with you my favorite football highlight clip of all-time

Funny Story from my
last year’s Super Bowl blog

Vladimir
Putin

Vladimir Putin allegedly stole one of Bob
Kraft’s Super Bowl rings.

“I took out the ring and showed it to [Putin],
and he put it on and he goes, ‘I can kill someone with this ring,’” Kraft said
during the Carnegie Hall’s Medal of Excellence gala in New York City. “I put my
hand out, and he put it in his pocket, and three KGB guys got around him and
walked out.”Before you feel too bad for Kraft allegedly
being strong armed by the Russian President, remember that his team was caught
cheating and it is very possible he only has rings because of it.

Random quote from Putin that I can’t
substantiate (say in Russian accent):“I don’t understand American economy. All they
do is buy and sell each other’s houses.”