Same-sex marriage may be key issue in November

Tuesday, September 9, 2008(09-08) 18:24 PDT SAN FRANCISCO -- With same-sex marriage bans on the ballot in three high-profile states in November, presidential hopefuls John McCain and Barack Obama could find themselves stuck in a fight they'd rather avoid.ImagesView Larger ImageMore News

California, Arizona and Florida will ask voters to approve constitutional amendments limiting marriage to a man and woman, and the high-priced election clash over the issue could help decide who becomes the nation's next president.

Polls show Obama and McCain running neck and neck in much of the nation, which means that any issue that could bring out voters in a swing state such as Florida has to be taken seriously by both parties.

But with the economy, the war in Iraq and health care drawing the most attention in the race for president, same-sex marriage isn't a battleground either candidate would choose, said Jack Pitney, a political science professor at Claremont McKenna College.

The question of same-sex marriage has been especially vexing to Obama, who needs to hang on to his progressive Democratic base, which sees same-sex marriage as a human rights issue, while not offending moderate blue-collar Democrats and independents, who might not be comfortable seeing two men or two women holding hands and saying, "I do."

Obama has tried to tread a narrow road between the two positions. He says marriage should be limited to a man and a woman but opposes California's Proposition 8, which would put that limit in the state Constitution and overturn a state Supreme Court ruling earlier this year that legalized same-sex marriage.

At a forum in Southern California last month, Obama explained his position to an audience made up mostly of evangelical Christians.

"I believe that marriage is the union between a man and a woman," he said to cheers. "I am not somebody who promotes same-sex marriage, but I do believe in civil unions. ... I think my faith is strong enough and my marriage is strong enough that I can afford those civil rights to others, even if I have a different perspective or a different view."

His running mate, Delaware Sen. Joe Biden, takes the same position, opposing same-sex marriage and the state amendments that would ban it.

McCain, who in 2004 opposed a GOP-backed constitutional amendment to ban same-sex unions nationwide, has long been viewed with suspicion by conservatives, so his outspoken opposition to same-sex marriage - and support for the three November initiatives - is a huge plus with that group.

Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin, his choice as running mate, also opposes same-sex marriages and supported a 1998 amendment to ban them in her home state.McCain needs center

But the conservative vote alone isn't enough to carry McCain to victory in November.

At the Southern California forum, the senator from Arizona reiterated that marriage should be "a union between man and woman, between one man and one woman," but he left the door open for other, less-controversial unions.

"That doesn't mean that people can't enter into legal agreements," he said. "That doesn't mean that they don't have the rights of all citizens. I'm not saying that. I am saying that we should preserve the unique status of marriage between one man and one woman."

But political realities might not let the two candidates sidle carefully away from the same-sex marriage debate.

While the issue isn't likely to change the presidential result in a strong Democratic state like California or sway McCain's home state of Arizona to Obama, the fight over same-sex marriage in a toss-up state like Florida could make a difference in the national contest.

The marriage amendment can attract voters who otherwise might stay home on election day, said John Stemberger, head of Yes2Marriage, the group backing Florida's anti-same-sex marriage Amendment 2.

"Especially among social conservatives, there have been a lot of things about McCain that they don't like," he said. "But this will give a lot of conservatives a reason to come to the polls."

Four years ago, similar same-sex marriage bans were on the ballot in 11 states - and won in every one of them. Only in Oregon and Michigan did the measures receive less than 60 percent of the vote. Some political analysts suggested that the issue brought out enough conservative voters in Ohio to swing the state to GOP President Bush, giving him the state's 20 electoral votes and a national victory.Close campaign

"Florida is one state where same-sex marriage might have a serious effect," Pitney said. "It's a close campaign there between McCain and Obama, and a point or two might make a difference."

But opponents of the measure are confident that they have the votes to defeat the same-sex marriage ban, especially because a new Florida law requires a 60 percent vote to pass a constitutional amendment. The most recent polls show the amendment's support at about 58 percent.

"This is not yet a hot campaign," said Derek Newton, campaign manager for Florida Red and Blue, which is working to defeat Amendment 2. "This isn't the same issue it was two or four (election) cycles before. It doesn't seem to have people as excited."

There are signs that the nation is becoming more accepting. While national polls still show that a solid majority of Americans remains opposed to same-sex marriage, the numbers have slipped since 2004.

In California, same-sex marriages have become an everyday occurrence, with few public protests since the ceremonies became legal in June. The Hallmark greeting card company, with its world headquarters in the Midwestern hub of Kansas City, Mo., has put out a new line of same-sex wedding cards, one of which features two tuxedos.

That doesn't mean the fall contests won't be hard-fought. The Knights of Columbus, a Catholic service group, recently gave $1 million to the campaign to pass California's same-sex marriage ban, while Bruce Bastian, co-founder of WordPerfect software, gave $1 million to Prop. 8 opponents. In Florida and Arizona, both sides are geared up for tough campaigns.

But times have changed, and those changes might be seen in the presidential race.

"There's a lack of gay marriage being noticeable, of being a seismic event," said Joe Solmonese, president of the Human Rights Campaign, a Washington group that works for equal rights for lesbian, gay, bisexual and transgender people. "Anyone who tries to introduce it into the national campaign does so at their own peril."Why Florida counts

Swing state: The outcome of a measure banning same-sex marriage in swing-state Florida may help determine who the next president is more than similar measures in California and Arizona.

Obama: Defeat of the Florida measure, which requires 60 percent approval, would help Barack Obama, who opposes such constitutional amendments.

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