Colorado gives three new poll leads to Obama. Obama takes 6 of 7 current polls and has a probability of winning the state of 94%.

We get four new Florida polls. One goes to Romney, two to Obama and the last is a tie. Romney has the edge among the 9 current polls, as he is up +0.8%. That translates into a 69% probability of Romney winning the state. Here is the past couple of months of polling:

Another Iowa puts Romney over Obama, by a slim +1%. Even so, Obama takes six of the eight polls collected over the past week, and it earns him a 90% probability of winning the state now.

In Michigan, Obama polls at +5%. The verdict of the 5 current polls is that Obama will take the state with a 95% probability.

Nevada gives Obama a +4% poll. Combined with the other current poll Obama takes the state 90% of the simulated elections.

A flurry of four New Hampshire polls today mostly gives Obama small leads. There is one tie, however. This brings us to 8 polls taken in the past week for the granite state. Two of them are ties, but Obama leads in the rest by small margins. The analysis gives Obama a 91% probability of winning the state.

Two North Carolina polls go +4% Romney and tie. The third current poll is also a tie. Together Romney has a narrow advantage, and a 72% chance of winning the state.

Four new Ohio polls today. One is a tie, and three give Obama tiny leads. But we now have 12 (count em!) polls collected in the past week. Two are ties, but Obama leads in the remaining 10. The provide evidence that Obama will take the state with a 98% probability.

The only Pennsylvania poll supports Obama over Romney by +3%. We only have 5 current polls and, aside from one tie, Obama leads ’em. He gets a 91% probability out of it.

Three new Virginia polls split 2:1 in favor of Obama. Now with six current polls, Obama takes all but one from today. He holds a +1.4% edge and seems to have a 78% chance of taking the state. This is worth a picture:

After 100,000 simulated elections, Obama wins 98,814 times and Romney wins 1,186 times (including the 152 ties). Obama received (on average) 309 to Romney’s 229 electoral votes. In an election held now, Obama would have a 98.8% (+0.5%) probability of winning and Romney would have a 1.2% (+0.5%) probability of winning.

The long term trends in this race can be seen from a series of elections simulated every seven days using polls from 05 Nov 2011 to 05 Nov 2012, and including polls from the preceding seven days (FAQ).

Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:

I saw Dixville Notch on CNN, turned the channel when Piers Morgan went back to the scheduled guest, so I missed Hart’s Addition. I like the way that works, I think the West Wing combined the two towns for a fictional town of Hartsfield Landing. I loved the way that episode ended, by the way.

Okay, we get 50.88% Obama and 49.12% Romney with the weighted state polling averages applied to the 2008 turnout, at the two-candidate level. This compares with 50.46% Obama and 49.54% Romney using the weighted average of the RCP national polls. Pretty close between the two measures.

So probably in about 24 hours, enough of the really close states will be called, and Obama will be proclaimed the victor for another 4 years, with very little change in the makeup of Congress.

I am beginning to wonder if the punditry class, on all sides, is only in it for the ratings. Earlier this year, they were saying that the Senate would not even be close. Several toss ups, a couple ill-timed, and ill-advised comments, and races written off become competitive, like Indiana and Missouri. I noticed those outside groups that went after Murray in 2010 did not show up here much.

That sniveling little weasel Josh Mandel, corrupt, anti-gay, and a paragon of right wing ‘virtue’ who is running against Sherrod Brown for Senate from Ohio…had an ad taken out against him…BY HIS FAMILY!!

Signed by nine of his cousins, they decry is bigoted anti-gay positions, noting in particular that one of his (female) cousins is married to another woman, and that the in-law is a graduate of the Air Force Academy and an accomplished pilot who served her country in the military.

One wonders what mental and emotional gymnastics a little creep like Mandel goes through to maintain the positions he does…is it really heartfelt, or just a cynical decision that the road to power goes through the right-wing fever swamp?

If the president wins it will because all the people who benefited from what he had the guts and foresight to do stand up and do their part. He wins if those who despise racial and ethnic prejudice act wake tomorrow hearing those horrible words that have been called out angrily against this president. They will vote because they know deep in their suffering souls that those words, that villainy that has been rained on the president – that he’s not legitimately one of us, that he’s not really an American, that he is “lazy,” that he does not really love this country, is not aimed at him alone. Not my any means. This diatribe from that side is not aimed at one, lone man. Those words—”food stamps” and “welfare” and “lazy” and un-American and all the rest—have been handcrafted by history to destroy the rightful place in this country of too many good people to be counted. They will not stop from being spoken even if Obama wins to tomorrow. But let those words win tomorrow and you let those who spoke them win. And they will do it with more vehemence and all the more full-throatedness the next time and the next.

Moreover, your numbers, if true, may well reflect systematic change engineered by Husted and the other Republicans in the Ohio government to limit access to voting.

How do you countenance that? Does your self interest and greed trump democracy, trump others’ access to the vote?

I’ve wondered that about my Republican friends….even if you’re the most well meaning conservative, or honestly motivated by their agenda – how do you live with the widespread, systematic efforts to keep some people – usually black, brown, poor or some combination thereof – keep them from even voting? How do you live with that?

“We’re doing everything we can, but I don’t see a lot in Ohio that points to a clear Republican victory,” says a Romney insider. “The president has been hammering us for months,” and the auto bailout is popular.

Husted and Kasich in Ohio, Rick Scott in Florida, Gessler in Colorado…every one of them a Republican, have limited early voting hours, closed polling places, limited resources, reduced access to voting, tried to limit mailed ballots – all aimed at limiting efforts to maximize peoples’ access to the vote.

You deliberately obfuscate with drivel like this…

Should we be open at the polls 24/7 for 60 days straight, with PSAs every 5 minutes? ’cause that might turn out some extra voters.

And this tells me you see this only in partisan terms, from a perspective of winning elections…

A better argument for you, Lib Sci, would be to not dig deeper into the bottom of the barrel in OH, but to dig into the middle of the barrel in PA.

It appears to completely elude you that this is about maximizing citizens’ participation in their democracy, and government actions to either foster that, or to hinder it. Your side has chosen the latter, and made every effort to make sure people who tend to vote Democratic not have access.

You pretend that early voting hours and locations and other means to expand the vote are not limiting factors, and that squeezing them does not have a disenfranchising effect – your argument is as transparent as it is weak.

And this tells me you see this only in partisan terms, from a perspective of winning elections…

Er, I thought I made a suggestion to start early voting in PA and probably unlock hundreds of thousands of additional votes in that state, rather than to further kiss the asses of the reluctant voters in OH in hopes of gaining a few hundred additional votes there.

I guess I was just being partisan, when actually I thought that from a numerical perspective, it made sense.

Blood, turnip in OH, Lib Sci. Of course, you’ve always been much more willing to kiss ass than I have, at least when Darryl’s around.

Politicians of one party do not set voting schedules to favor their side and harm the other. Politicians do not move around voting places to gain advantages for themselves or to disadvantage their opponents. In fact, in almost no other country do politicians have any say in the administration of elections at all.

How do Republicans wear the term ‘patriot’ so gaudily, and at the same time work so tirelessly to undermine our democracy?

First, thank-you for taking my wager and thus donating $1,000 to Northwest Harvest. I can say with absolute certitude that this was the best thing that has come from Slick Willard’s 7 year losing quest to massage his own ego.

Second, it is of little importance to me personally in the scheme of all that will happen today, but I will be so happy at the end of the evening when facts prove you so absolutely wrong and stoopid. I am hoping that YLB can do a query to let us know how many days and how many comments you have stoopidly made during this election cycle.

As a native of western PA I can assert with absolute certainty the Gekko/Galt PA gambit is laughable.

Lastly, by my count Obama wins 303 to 235. And I think Obama/Biden may do a tad better if the Republicans don’t steal Florida.

Keep in mind Intrade and the Betting Orgs only relect those who gamble on this election, many of whom rely on the polls in deciding who to bet for. If they read Darryl’s analysis, they ought to push all their chips in for Obama. The problem is all are relying on polls with a variety of assumptions. If Romney wins, Darryl will say he wasn’t predicting, just reflecting the polls he used. I’ve got private bets risking $2,000 with the potential of winning $8,125. Different odds on bets.

10) I have heard of the cousin of Mandell that they were talking about. Ellen Ratner, a bureau chief with the Talk Radio News Service. Pretty nice lady, and despite her sometimes partisan bent, she did do one thing interesting. During the primaries, she asked the Liberal hosts that carry TRNS updates, to not be too hard on Bachman, because although they disagree, they have gotten along.

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