Player Rankings by Position:

Random Variance Score- shows the results random variance had on a player’s 2011 season and the probability that a player will exceed or regress in 2012. Scoring is a -5 to +5 scale that measures several sabermetric categories that reflect if a player is prone to regression.

The Mayberry Method- a 0-5 scale of a fantasy players Power, Speed, Batting Average, and Playing Time.

Health & Age- Player is given a score A to F based on the combination of health history and age/regression.

Runs Above Replacement (RAR)- Estimated number of runs a player will generate above his replacement

On Base Plus Slugging Average (OPS)- Combines On Base percentage plus slugging percentage to show a players overall performance. Elite players will bat .900 or higher. Stars will bat .800 or higher. The average player will bat above .650. A bad score is anything under .650

1. Troy Tulowitzki, Col

Age: 27 2011 Stats: .302-30-105

Rand Variance

Mayberry

Health / Age

RAR

OPS

+1

4255

A

39.9

915

Tulo is everything you want in an elite fantasy player. Tulo has yet to reach his ceiling. 40 HR and 20 SB potential all while playing Shortstop and hitting .300+ .The metrics and trends clearly show we have yet to see the best of this elite player.

2. Jose Reyes, Mia

Age: 28 2011 Stats: .337-7-44

Rand Variance

Mayberry

Health / Age

RAR

OPS

+1

3545

D-

23.2

.880

Through the first half of 2011, Reyes looked healthy and was on his way to a career year. He was on pace for 60+ SB, 90+RBI, 20 HR all while hitting .337. All those hopes for Reyes owners were crushed when his hamstring blew up before the allstar break. Even when he came back he was not the same player. Over his career, Reyes is the classic High Reward/High Risk player. Switching leagues and getting paid might have some negative effects on him getting a fast start. The new ballpark in Miami is suppose to be a pitchers park which could lead to a lot of XBH. He is only 28, and being in the middle of his prime you can expect big stats if healthy.

3. Starlin Castro, ChC

Age: 21 2011 Stats: .307-10-66

Rand Variance

Mayberry

Health / Age

RAR

OPS

+2

2435

A+

7.5

.773

At 21 years old, Elite Speed with a .300 average is a great foundation to have. The trends show that power will develop over the years but I could expect 15 HRs in 2012. If he gets the right manager that will give him the green light, 50+ steals are in his realm. Great CT% shows the average is legit. Castro is a great keeper to hold onto and build your team around for years.

4. Asdrubal Cabrera, Cle

Age: 26 2011 Stats: .273-25-92

Rand Variance

Mayberry

Health / Age

RAR

OPS

-1

2325

B-

7.2

.799

A healthy 2011 showed great progress from a 2009 season. He saw more Fastballs in 2011 than ever before, which could show where some of his power came from. The trends do show 10-15 HR power. Besides the power every other basic stat fell inline with the metrics. Projected 2012 ceiling would be .270-15-90.

5. Eric Aybar, LAA

Age: 28 2011 Stats: .279-10-59

Rand Variance

Mayberry

Health / Age

RAR

OPS

+1

2335

B+

.08

.738

There is a lot of hype surrounding Aybar in the Fantasy world. I have seen projections as insane as .335-20-100 with 55 SB. I am not on that bandwagon. Don’t get me wrong, I think Aybar will have a nice season. With Pujols and Morales entering the lineup, Aybar should have beter pitch selection at the plate and more chances to rack up steals on the basepaths. Aybar has only hit over .279 once in his career. With his SB metrics dropping in 2011, 50 plus stolen bases are a stretch. I see Aybar gaining a lot in Runs and a spike up to 40 SBs. He produces across the board which makes him valuable at SS, but he is not “great” at anything.

6. Elvis Andrus, Tex

Age: 23 2011 Stats: .279-5-60

Rand Variance

Mayberry

Health / Age

RAR

OPS

+1

1335

A+

-.07

.703

I am starting to wonder if this is as good as it gets for Andrus from a fantasy prospective. If defensive stats where big in fantasy, he would be elite. He has zero power, hardly hits .279, and his baserunning metrics dropped in 2011. With his talent I would expect 50 steals, and that would be enough for me to draft him higher. BUT he has not shown that talent and I am starting to wonder if he is not over-hyped.

7. Jhonny Peralta, Det

Age: 29 2011 Stats: .299-21-86

Rand Variance

Mayberry

Health / Age

RAR

OPS

-1

2225

A

3.5

.827

Shows 20+ HR power. Can hit in the .270-.299 range. OPS was a nice .827. If Peralta could steal 15+ bases and be more consistant, he would easily be a top 5 Shortstop. The problem is one year he hits .249, then the next he is .299. One year he will hit 24 HRs, then he drops to 11. With Prince in the lineup, you can hope Peralta is in a better position for success.

8. Alexei Ramirez, CWS

Age: 30 2011 Stats: .269-15-70

Rand Variance

Mayberry

Health / Age

RAR

OPS

+1

2335

A

7.2

.724

In my book, Ramirez is a huge letdown. After his 2008 season, there was hope he would produce 30+ HR power, steal 25+ bases, and hit over .300. Those projections are long gone. At 30 years old, he has acted like a player on the wrong side of 30 the past 3 seasons. As he continues his decline he is just average across the board.

9. Jimmy Rollins, Phi

Age: 33 2011 Stats: .268-16-63

Rand Variance

Mayberry

Health / Age

RAR

OPS

+1

1235

C-

2.8

.735

The 30 steals in 2011 suprised me, but I don’t expect 30+ in the future. With a 33 year old Rollins, you can expect 15-20 HRs, 20 steals and a .260 average. Regression metrics are showing 20% decline every year past 33 for Rollins.

10. J.J. Hardy, Bal

Age: 29 2011 Stats: .269-30-80

Rand Variance

Mayberry

Health / Age

RAR

OPS

-2

3125

C+

5.6

.801

The only other player besides Tulo to show 30 HR power in 2011. I wouldn’t expect 30 HR this year, but if healthy he can easily get you 20-25. I like Hardy do to the power potential and he normally holds a BA around .270. His CT% has held steady, but health issues might spark regression. He is a nice MI option, and a cheap source for power.

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