My early line on the 2014 election

LeRoy GoldmanThe Shadow Knows

Published: Sunday, July 21, 2013 at 4:30 a.m.

Last Modified: Friday, July 19, 2013 at 8:15 a.m.

Disapproval of Congress is at an all-time high. Only about 10 percent of the American people approve of what it does. On Meet The Press last Sunday, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid said North Korea is more popular than Congress. His statement puts a bow on it.

But the fact that Congress has degenerated into dysfunctionality doesn't mean most of them won't be re-elected next year. They will. Can the Democrats recapture the House? Can the Republicans regain the Senate? Let's go to The Shadow's early line and see.

The Republicans control the House of Representatives 234-201. The Democrats would need to gain a net of 17 seats in order to regain control of the chamber. Although not impossible, it would be a daunting task.

Over the past two decades, there have been several "wave elections" that brought fundamental change to the House. In 1994, the GOP emerged from 40 years in the wilderness to take control of the House by winning 54 seats. It was the Gingrich revolution.

Then, in the elections of 2006 and 2008, the Democrats were swept back into power by winning 52 seats, thereby giving President Barack Obama control of all of the levers of power in Washington for his first two years in the White House.

But in 2010, another wave election led by the tea party insurgents returned the House to Republican dominance as the GOP gained 63 seats. In 2012, the Democrats picked up eight seats to slightly narrow the Republican House majority.

There will not be another wave election in 2014 unless some major external and unexpected event roils the political landscape. Thanks to congressional redistricting following the 2010 census, the GOP has a built-in structural advantage in a large number of House districts.

North Carolina is a perfect example of this advantage. Prior to redistricting following the 2010 census, the Democrats controlled seven of North Carolina's 13 House seats. But now the GOP has a 9-4 edge. Our own district here in the mountains tells the story. The GOP's redistricting removed most of the African-American precincts in Asheville from our district. That turned the district from blue to red. That helps explain why Democrat Heath Shuler retired and why Republican Mark Meadows won.

When all is said and done on Nov. 4, 2014, the GOP will still rule the roost in the House of Representatives.

The Democrats control the Senate 54-46, including two independents, Bernie Sanders of Vermont and Angus King of Maine, who routinely vote with the Democrats. However, in a special election coming Oct. 16, it is highly likely that the Democrats will pick up another seat in New Jersey with the election of Cory Booker, the Democratic mayor of Newark. That will give the Democrats a 55-45 edge in the chamber.

In order to regain control of the Senate in 2014, the Republicans would have to gain at least six seats. A 50-50 split would leave the Democrats in control because the tie would be broken by the constitutional officer who serves as the president of the Senate, Vice President Joe Biden.

Most senators seeking re-election will win. Thus the balance hangs in seven toss-up states that are now held by Democrats. These states are Montana, South Dakota, West Virginia, Alaska, Arkansas, Louisiana and North Carolina. For the Republicans to take control of the Senate, they will need to win six of these seven battleground states. It's a tall order, but they have a chance because all of these are red states.

The GOP would appear to be poised to capture South Dakota, West Virginia, Montana and Arkansas. They can also win in Alaska, assuming that former governor Sarah Palin steers clear of the fray. That's five of the six the Republicans need, and it leaves Louisiana and North Carolina.

In Louisiana, Democratic Sen. Mary Landrieu seeks her fourth term. Her father, Moon Landrieu, was mayor of the Crescent City, and now her brother, Mitch, is the current mayor of New Orleans. Sen. Landrieu has been one of the most conservative Democrats in the Senate.

All of her previous elections have been close. For her, the key to victory remains unchanged — roll up huge margins among African-American voters in New Orleans. With her brother's help, she probably will do it again next year.

And there you have it. Control of the Senate comes down to North Carolina! Freshman Democratic Sen. Kay Hagan seeks re-election. She grew up in Lakeland, Fla., where her father was a successful businessman, a power broker in state Democratic circles and the mayor of Lakeland. Hagan herself is one of the wealthiest members of the Senate. Her net worth is estimated to be between $11 million and $40 million.

Her legislative track record in the Senate is undistinguished. She voted for Obamacare. And next year she will not have the advantage that was hers in 2008 — the large voter turnout that accompanies a presidential election.

But you can't beat somebody with nobody. And that's the current problem facing the Republican Party in North Carolina. They do not have a front-line candidate who is able and eager to send Hagan to the showers.

In 2010 and 2012, the GOP flushed six winnable Senate seats down the toilet by nominating certain losers. Will North Carolina be No. 7? If so, the consequences of stupidity for the GOP will loom large.

Maybe the Shadow will throw his hat in the ring, but Lee Goldman can be reached at tks12no12@gmail.com. Goldman's series on Supreme Court issues over the past three weeks has earned national recognition with re-publication on SCOTUSblog.com. As a result, N.C. Rep. Mark Meadows formally commended Goldman on the House floor Tuesday.

<p>Disapproval of Congress is at an all-time high. Only about 10 percent of the American people approve of what it does. On Meet The Press last Sunday, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid said North Korea is more popular than Congress. His statement puts a bow on it.</p><p>But the fact that Congress has degenerated into dysfunctionality doesn't mean most of them won't be re-elected next year. They will. Can the Democrats recapture the House? Can the Republicans regain the Senate? Let's go to The Shadow's early line and see.</p><p>The Republicans control the House of Representatives 234-201. The Democrats would need to gain a net of 17 seats in order to regain control of the chamber. Although not impossible, it would be a daunting task.</p><p>Over the past two decades, there have been several "wave elections" that brought fundamental change to the House. In 1994, the GOP emerged from 40 years in the wilderness to take control of the House by winning 54 seats. It was the Gingrich revolution.</p><p>Then, in the elections of 2006 and 2008, the Democrats were swept back into power by winning 52 seats, thereby giving President Barack Obama control of all of the levers of power in Washington for his first two years in the White House.</p><p>But in 2010, another wave election led by the tea party insurgents returned the House to Republican dominance as the GOP gained 63 seats. In 2012, the Democrats picked up eight seats to slightly narrow the Republican House majority.</p><p>There will not be another wave election in 2014 unless some major external and unexpected event roils the political landscape. Thanks to congressional redistricting following the 2010 census, the GOP has a built-in structural advantage in a large number of House districts.</p><p>North Carolina is a perfect example of this advantage. Prior to redistricting following the 2010 census, the Democrats controlled seven of North Carolina's 13 House seats. But now the GOP has a 9-4 edge. Our own district here in the mountains tells the story. The GOP's redistricting removed most of the African-American precincts in Asheville from our district. That turned the district from blue to red. That helps explain why Democrat Heath Shuler retired and why Republican Mark Meadows won.</p><p>When all is said and done on Nov. 4, 2014, the GOP will still rule the roost in the House of Representatives.</p><p>The Democrats control the Senate 54-46, including two independents, Bernie Sanders of Vermont and Angus King of Maine, who routinely vote with the Democrats. However, in a special election coming Oct. 16, it is highly likely that the Democrats will pick up another seat in New Jersey with the election of Cory Booker, the Democratic mayor of Newark. That will give the Democrats a 55-45 edge in the chamber.</p><p>In order to regain control of the Senate in 2014, the Republicans would have to gain at least six seats. A 50-50 split would leave the Democrats in control because the tie would be broken by the constitutional officer who serves as the president of the Senate, Vice President Joe Biden.</p><p>Most senators seeking re-election will win. Thus the balance hangs in seven toss-up states that are now held by Democrats. These states are Montana, South Dakota, West Virginia, Alaska, Arkansas, Louisiana and North Carolina. For the Republicans to take control of the Senate, they will need to win six of these seven battleground states. It's a tall order, but they have a chance because all of these are red states.</p><p>The GOP would appear to be poised to capture South Dakota, West Virginia, Montana and Arkansas. They can also win in Alaska, assuming that former governor Sarah Palin steers clear of the fray. That's five of the six the Republicans need, and it leaves Louisiana and North Carolina.</p><p>In Louisiana, Democratic Sen. Mary Landrieu seeks her fourth term. Her father, Moon Landrieu, was mayor of the Crescent City, and now her brother, Mitch, is the current mayor of New Orleans. Sen. Landrieu has been one of the most conservative Democrats in the Senate.</p><p>All of her previous elections have been close. For her, the key to victory remains unchanged — roll up huge margins among African-American voters in New Orleans. With her brother's help, she probably will do it again next year.</p><p>And there you have it. Control of the Senate comes down to North Carolina! Freshman Democratic Sen. Kay Hagan seeks re-election. She grew up in Lakeland, Fla., where her father was a successful businessman, a power broker in state Democratic circles and the mayor of Lakeland. Hagan herself is one of the wealthiest members of the Senate. Her net worth is estimated to be between $11 million and $40 million.</p><p>Her legislative track record in the Senate is undistinguished. She voted for Obamacare. And next year she will not have the advantage that was hers in 2008 — the large voter turnout that accompanies a presidential election.</p><p>But you can't beat somebody with nobody. And that's the current problem facing the Republican Party in North Carolina. They do not have a front-line candidate who is able and eager to send Hagan to the showers.</p><p>In 2010 and 2012, the GOP flushed six winnable Senate seats down the toilet by nominating certain losers. Will North Carolina be No. 7? If so, the consequences of stupidity for the GOP will loom large.</p><p>Maybe the Shadow will throw his hat in the ring, but Lee Goldman can be reached at tks12no12@gmail.com. Goldman's series on Supreme Court issues over the past three weeks has earned national recognition with re-publication on SCOTUSblog.com. As a result, N.C. Rep. Mark Meadows formally commended Goldman on the House floor Tuesday.</p>