Brazil start the World Cup as the team to beat

If the World Cup television pundits tell you to forget everything you know about Brazil, then forget everything they tell you. This is a wonderful side that plays superb football.

There’s a sense that people have got Brazilian football wrong, that every four years they become convinced the Brazil national team has won five World Cups by playing Globetrotter-esque football with no regard for defence. Did Joga Bonito ever exist? Fans of the 1970 World Cup-winning Brazil side would say yes, but football has advanced an incredible amount in the past forty years, and it’s simply not possible to successfully play that way.

The failure four years ago summed that up. Brazil attempted to fit Kaka, Ronaldinho, Ronaldo and Adriano into the same XI, and they were dumped out at the quarter-final stage. The main question was what was worse – Brazil’s tactics, or their circus-like training sessions that served as preparation. Dunga needed to change Brazil drastically both on and off the pitch.

ZM effectively previewed this Brazil side in the wake of their friendly against Ireland back in Feburary, with an in-depth look at how they shape up on the pitch. This article will be an adapted version of that – little has changed in the past three months, and the initial piece has sufficient detail to provide a comprehensive guide to Dunga’s side.

There has only been one change in personnel from the Brazil side we expected three months ago – Ramires appears to have been replaced on the right of midfield by Elano. Also, in the Ireland game, Adriano (not in the World Cup squad) was played in place of the injured Luis Fabiano – but the rest of the players remain the same, and fill very specific roles.

The side

One of the odd things about the fact the Brazilian team being regarded as rigid and inflexible is the fact that no-one quite knows how to categorise this side. As Jonathan Wilson pointed out last year, South Americans tend to see the system as a 4-4-2 diamond (or 4-3-1-2), in Europe the shape was widely described as a 4-2-3-1.

Some believe that the system is a diamond midfield, as shown in this picture. The back four marked by red, the midfield diamond by blue (Kaka is slightly to the left-of-centre, his usual position denoted by the blue dot), and the forwards marked by pink.

It would be difficult to look at that shape and deny that it was a 4-4-2 diamond – perhaps a 4-3-3 if you were considering Kaka in this picture to be playing as a forward. You would certainly not describe it as a 4-2-3-1, because Ramires (the midfielder furthest to the right) is clearly alongside Melo, the midfielder on the halfway line.

And yet, just minutes later in the same game, Brazil had taken this shape, which looks much more like a 4-2-3-1.The defenders again in red, the two holding players in blue, the three attacking players in pink, and the lone forward in green.

The key to understanding the team’s shift is probably the roles of Robinho and Ramires/Elano.

Robinho, the left-sided forward, takes up a position outside the opposition’s right-back. In this sense, he is effectively playing as an old-fashioned outside-left, whilst the central striker Luis Fabiano occupies the opposition’s left-sided centre-back. Therefore, they play too far apart to realistically be labelled a front two, and they rarely combine directly.

The role of Ramires/Elano is also interesting. Their job is to shuttle from a central midfield position when defending, to a right-wing position when in possession. This requires a tremendous amount of energy, and it is rare to see the starting player remain on the pitch for 90 minutes, especially as it is a position where Dunga has two good options.

The use of two holding midfielders, Melo and Gilberto, means that Brazil are able to keep the ball easily, because one of them is always free. This is important, because Brazil’s game is based around possession when they are ahead. Their second goal against Ireland was a wonderful move that featured 21 passes before Robinho put the ball into the net.

They like to soak up pressure and do generally play on the counter-attack, and they break at lightning speed – a particular problem for the opposition central midfielders is that they look to close down Gilberto and Melo, which then leaves Ramires/Elano and Kaka free. And with Robinho staying wide left and Maicon bombing down the right, Brazil can dominate the centre of midfield with a diamond, without leaving them short on the flanks.

There is a further subtlety to the Brazilian shape though, because when in possesson they sometimes feature a back three, with Michel Bastos (who is really a left-winger at club level) and Maicon acting as wing-backs, as shown below.

Here, Gilberto Silva (normally the right-sided holding player), moves to the right of defence, and becomes a third centre-backalongside Juan and Lucio (the three are marked in red), with the latter becoming a sweeper, with license to move forward. This three-man system with wing-backs is similar to the way Brazil played in 2002. Felipe Melo then becomes the sole holding player, with Bastos and Maicon (marked in pink) able to get forward and provide width high up the pitch. It then effectively becomes an Ajax-style 3-3-1-3 system, with Robinho and Ramires tucking in, narrowing the opposition, and allowing the Brazil wing-backs considerable space to get forward.

And one final picture:

Robinho (purple) occupies the right-back, whilst Adriano (red) plays on the shoulder of the left-sided centre back. The player inbetween them is the free man. As Ramires (yellow) is in a central position, the right-back Maicon (pink) takes up an extremely advanced and wide role, and to compensate, Gilberto (blue) drops into a position ready to cover the right-back slot, similar to how Javier Zanetti covers for Maicon at Inter.

The positioning of Brazil's players in the defensive phase (left) and the attacking phase (right)

Don’t be surprised if Brazil quietly fight their way to World Cup victory. They’ll keep the ball, tire the opposition but not look particularly dangerous. Then they’ll break at speed, rely on the skill of Kaka and Robinho, and win games comfortably without thrashing the opposition, by dominating possession.

It’s not the most exciting Brazilian team in history, but if you love football, then you’ll love Brazil.

60 Responses to “ Brazil start the World Cup as the team to beat ”

Relying on Kaka to stay fit the whole tournament is not a wise gameplan IMO but for Brazil’s sake I hope he does..

Victor on June 9, 2010 at 7:44 pm

It’s definitely a thing of carrying all your eggs in one basket. It’s definitely a gamble, but Brazil have done this in the past — relying on unfit Rivaldo and Ronaldo in 2002 and they won. Then again, unfit Ronaldo in 06 backfired. I’m hoping for a 2002-type performance.

And, I think that Baptista has shown that he is more than capable of substituting Kaka. I think if we see him on the pitch in place of Kaka, Dunga may bring on Ramires to make up for our lack of speed in the midfield.

1. To instigate counter-attacks, Brazil commit numerous off-ball tactical tugs. Bastos is often caught high by nippy darters to *his* strip of chalk, and gets a fistful of jersey asap. Brazil are steady and disciplined in their defending of set-plays, and then launch with Kaka central/right-veering, and Robinho on the left.

2. Another job of the right-sided midfielder is to stand on the flank and let Maicon swerve his carries centrally. This involves either drawing a body across via an off-ball zoom, or laying on the 1-2s return pass.

jupiter53 on June 9, 2010 at 11:47 am

Thanks for the perspective – makes the mouth water in anticipation!

Don on June 9, 2010 at 11:57 am

Great write-up. Thats exactly what i have being yelling from long. Dont take the brazilians lightly, they might just take the cup.

Well, I’ve been labelling them as the favourites for over one year now. I do not even they will play Spain in the final. One note extra: this type of play is perfect for the weather they are likely to face in South Africa (wet and warm or dry and cold, mainly). This because they do not play the passing game that usually gets opponents tired by chasing the ball. They keep possession but without bothering to tire the opponents. They mainly wait to see the opposition players caught out of position and then pounce with frightening precision. It should be exciting to see.

On top of that, the team have plenty of physically imposing players, not only the centre-backs anymore. This can be quite useful when playing in soaked pitches, like they may find when playing in the coastal areas.

PS – a note about the weather. This may mean that Spain will find it harder to pass the ball and tire the opponents. This may even be more of a problem if there is rain. I can see a disciplined english side or a german side (who tend to be disciplined by nature, even if this team might be a bit less so) beating them without an “heroic” effort.

I actually think that this is the best formation for Brazil, it has pace, techinique, and control of the game, not to mention the lighting speed counter-attack force. But maybe that’s just because I don’t rate Melo that much. He’s much of a thug, loose cannon and can really mess up and getting a red in the WC. But I guess Melo has his spot exactly to do that, to be the strong man and harass the playmaker.

Brazil is a very well created and used team in the tactics. Dunga is not a total mastemind, but he’s really good and intelligent. People just loves to talk bash, the results talk a lot louder.

Rajesh on June 9, 2010 at 12:27 pm

Brazil definitely have the best defence for this WC. Add Caesar to the defence and they can be nearly unbeatable. I still have a feeling, they may not go past Semis.

Great quote, another fantastic piece on Zonal Marking. Will be interesting to see Kaka after 2 lacklustre seasons but the World Cup is the right time to shine. Without the likes of Diego and Ronaldinho there is a lot on his shoulders.

Pedro on June 9, 2010 at 1:30 pm

Hi ZM,

The write-up is excellent as always (drawing heavily upon a previous article, but then again, if Jonathan Wilson does it in 90% of his articles, so you can do it too ).

I’m surprised though you haven’t mentioned the fragility of the left side with Michel Bastos as full-back and the unstable Melo covering. Even the Tanzanians figured it out in the friendly this week. Worse, Bastos’s deputy (Gilberto) is having a stinker of a season (basically the worse player on the pitch in the Cruzeiro side embarassingly eliminated from the Libertadores). If there is a way to score against Brazil is to pressure the left side of defence, as pointed out by The Equaliser on his twitter feed.

Looking forward to your photo explanations of the games as of Friday. Cheers mate.

Lucas Esper on June 9, 2010 at 6:45 pm

This is precisely why Dunga put in Ramires for Melo position in the second half of the last friendly. He than put Daniel Alves in for Elano, because, as pointed out, no one can play that role for the full 90min.

I don’t think Melo will be starting when the group stage is over.

Here is to hoping that Dunga’s obnoxious choices of Gilberto and Kleberson (subs for Bastos and Melo, respectively) will not come to haunt him, as it is easy seeing Roberto Carlos and Thiago Motta doing a far, far better job on those roles.

ZM: Let’s say Kaka gets hurt after one game. Does Dunga stick with his system, and if he does, who is Kaka’s replacement? Obviously many would see R10 as a direct and logical replacement but the whole him not being in the squad thing is a problem there. Does Elano move up to Kaka’s spot and Ramires takes Elano’s role? Or would Baptista slot in there? What do you think?

I think that’s the one question about this Brazil side. I don’t see Baptista doing a job there from the off, I imagine Elano would be a better replacement. But I can’t see the system changing drastically.

Santiago on June 9, 2010 at 4:58 pm

The Copa America in 2007, which they won without Kaka, saw Baptista in that position, only with a very different role, mainly as a second-line striker to the holes the striker (in that tournament, Mr. Vagner Love) left. Elano is a great passer from distance, but I don’t see him with the required flair to act as trequartista for Brazil.

steveholt on June 9, 2010 at 5:48 pm

Baptista or Elano are in reality the only option for back up to kaka.
I think Baptista will be first man called up. The kaka role in this formation is to run hard and direct and keep the defence honest. Width will come from the RB and the LW … Kaka is to keep the defence facing forward and to keep a threat of going through the middle. Baptista can do that physically. Technically he is not near as sound, but in this system thats a secondary requirement for the role. Run hard, into the box, take shots.. thats the role at its most basic.

The biggest potential failing of this brazillian team is that there is no plan b. If a team are disciplined and get ahead of brazil, dunga is in a position where he only has like for like and role for role players on the bench. Every man picked has been picked for this system, and if the system is broken brazil will be elimiated.

However the other end of it is that it has proven to be a very effective and robust system thus far. Any system that can have baptista replace kaka and the team are still 98% as good is a tactical masterpiece. It is defensivelty very sound, and brazil are very very dangerous on the counterattack and from set pieces. In a way the rest of the attacking aspect of the game doesnt matter here. The mentality is that ”don’t concede, we will have a chance to score.”

Victor on June 9, 2010 at 7:52 pm

I don’t really see it as like for like. The team plays differently when Ramires and Alves are on the pitch. I mean, this type of formation has gotten results when they were necessary — when Brazil was in a tight game against South Arica and then again in the final, when down 2-0 to the US. Dunga made these changes and we got the wins.

Furthermore, there is another possibility, which Dunga sort of used in the last game against Tanzania — and that was playing Robinho and Nilmar together — two very speedy players. Brazil didn’t really do much with this formation, but the possibility exists that it could be used. In particular, Brazil appears to have the personnel to play a Santos-type offense, with Kaka as Ganso and attempting to link up with the speedy support strikers in Nilmar (Neymar) and Robinho.

Carlos on June 9, 2010 at 3:15 pm

I’ll speak for myself here, but I feel the people/press problem with this Brazil side is that it is too conservative in selection. Yes, Dunga wants to keep team chemistry and not just load a team with talent. But talent wins World Cups just as much as team organization; and it doesn’t make sense to me that Dunga could not find space in his squad of 23 for more of that talent. What happens if Robinho or Kaka are injured, which is possible because Kaka has had physical problems all year and the world cup is a grueling competition? What will they do from there? They can find solutions, but nothing on the bench can nearly replicate what Kaka or Robinho can offer, does Dunga want to give Julio Baptista the responsibility to change a game for him from the bench?

I just think that Dunga could have brought a couple players with that difference making talent that could come off the bench. How many grinders do you need? I admire Dunga for having his plan and being faithful to it, but I think he might look back after the competition and say “if only I had brought X”.

Anonymous on June 9, 2010 at 4:19 pm

I think Carlos makes a great point. Brazil could well be undone by their lack of attacking depth.

Victor on June 9, 2010 at 7:54 pm

Nilmar has performed admirably as a Robinho replacement. I’m perfectly OK with him as the starter. Yes, there is no replacement for Kaka. This is where a Ganso or Alex from Fenerbahce would’ve been nice.

But, as others have said, Baptista has confounded critics and has been able to replace Kaka on several occasions.

Santiago on June 9, 2010 at 3:32 pm

Last week on ESPN Mexico, there was a very interesting report on Brazil’s attack, particularly about Robinho’s role, that for me, helped me understand their attacking play.
For you see, Robinho starts as left forward, but when the team progresses with the ball and set up for static attack, with Maicon well wide on the right, Fabiano between central defenders, Kaká in the middle and Elano to his right, Robinho will not push forward but let the opposition team push back and loose track of him. He will then effectively become a second-line attacker, attacking the back four in speed without the ball, either to quickly combine with Kaká ahead of the line, appearing behind Luis Fabiano, or wherever he sees an additional man can help his team.
This is extremely interesting, because given his speed and technique, the net effect he creates is that of a 4 vs 4 where one guy suddenly jumps out from the stands to help the attacking team. He will go ahead and create a numerical superiority on the central mids and defenders that is lethal, and since Kaká, Elano and Maicon, great passers, are actively looking for this move, it’s executed with great coordination and very difficult to defend against.

Sacha on June 9, 2010 at 4:04 pm

fantastic analysis..

but in 2006 Brasil actually won the 4 WC matches played with Kaka,Ronaldinho,Ronaldo & Adriano. In the loss against France Parreira(coach) started with something like a 4-1-2-2-1 (a pentagon instead of a diamond IMO) when Juninho played instead of Adriano. (Also Gilberto Silva replaced Emerson with no huge tactical changes).
In advanced stages it has become usual for Brasil to come with a more defensive minded player. The same Parreira did it in USA 94´ WC (Rai by Mazinho), Zagallo FRANCE 98´ (Giovanni by Leonardo) ,Scolari in Japan/Korea 2002 (Juninho by Kleberson); Dunga himself has already deployed Josue after Elano in COPA AMERICA 2007 – http://www.cbf.com.br/php/selecao.php?j=2007 -. It would not be a surprise if he does the same “trick” in South Africa. I can smell Josue helping to cover again the Achilles Heel pointed above by Pedro´s comment: The left back side

Victor on June 9, 2010 at 7:56 pm

I agree with this. I think that Josue might actually be the player who ends up getting a greater role on this team. I would love for Ramires to get the start, but I can’t see Dunga dropping his two d-mid system. That means we’d see a player like Josue.

Filip on June 9, 2010 at 4:15 pm

Hm, great write up, as always, but I do question the quality of holding mids. There’s a reason Wenger was happy to offload Gilberto Silva, whom I used to love, love, love. Melo did not have a great season at Juventus either. As a matter of fact, I think he was voted the worst purchase of Seria A’s half season. Don’t think its gotten that much better recently. If they meet Holland in the quarters, I can see the Dutch 3-1 in the attack (RVP out left, Sneijder in the middle, Robben out right and Kuyt up front) occupying Brazil’s defence, leaving space in front of the back four for 25-30 yarders, which the Dutch can make. Also, can this side break other defenses down? Maybe they can beat a free flowing side like Spain, but counterattacking side like Holland can baffle them (see EURO 2008 first three games). Finally, what if Argentina decides to play strategically smart, learning from the embarassing 3:0 loss to Brazil in the Copa 2007 final? Milito, with a through ball from Messi can solve Brazil’s D in a second. It feels like Maradona’s been playing this baffoon all this time and will have a tenacious, defensive scheme (Bilardo’s, of course) ready for the QF and afterwards.

Santiago on June 9, 2010 at 6:29 pm

Actually, in the 1-3 defeat at home to Brazil, Messi gave Milito not one but two one-on-one chances… he squandered miserably.

Stuart Ingham on June 9, 2010 at 4:24 pm

Clear favorites.

I think if they go out it will be to a good side that has the humility to play two defensive wingers to track the wing backs and who as a unit do not press the ball and thus put the onus on Gilberto and Melo to do the breaking the down. I don’t rate either as a particuarly good passer.

If good teams do this against them I can see them dominating possession without being particuarly penetrating. Susceptable to being taken to a penalty shoot out or losing by the odd goal.

I see they drew home games in qualifying 0-0 against Venezuala, Bolvia and Coumbia. Does anyone know if this is the approach these sides took?

Pedro on June 9, 2010 at 4:45 pm

All 3 sides which drew nil-nil in the WCQ with parked a Maracana-sized bus in front of the Brazilian penalty area.

Stuart Ingham on June 9, 2010 at 5:54 pm

An approach they should expect to see at some point in the course of this tournamnet!

Lucas Esper on June 9, 2010 at 7:03 pm

If that happens, Dunga’s choice is to play Elano waaaay more deep (in Melo’s place) and call Ramires/Daniel Alves to fill Elano’s previous position, in addition to widening the field with the side backs pushing forward even more than they use to.

It would have been simpler to bring Hernanes or Elias, though.

Stuart Ingham on June 9, 2010 at 4:28 pm

The other approach to occupying the wing backs is ofcoure to play two wing forwards in a Dutch style system. Sadly Chile got thrashed doing this twice in qualifying? Perhaps this is due to their reliance on pressing?

Maybe a quality counter attacking team with wing forwards are the most likely to bring the Brazilians down. Step forward Holland. That really could be a brilliant match.

Larry Y on June 9, 2010 at 4:43 pm

Does Brazil still have the vulnerabilities that led them to being two goals down to the US in the Confed. cup last year?

Santiago on June 9, 2010 at 4:53 pm

Yes, apparently this is still a team reportedly composed mainly of brazilian players.

Haha. Good one. But what vulnerabilities were you talking about, man ?

Euler on June 9, 2010 at 5:14 pm

The movement towards greater “universality” of skill sets and play across the pitch is a major theme in the contemporary game. What’s particularly interesting about Brazil is how little they rely on multidimensional skill. Instead, they are a squad of intense specializing inside of the system Dunga has designed.

Dunga is widely criticized for playing two holding midfielders. But the Brazilian forwards simply are not skilled defenders and neither is defense a major priority for them. Nor is it for Kaka in his attacking mid/ supporting striker role. The two holding players seem to be a necessary function in turn.

A number of the Brazilian players have had very poor club seasons. However, for the national side they will have very different roles – roles which are more discrete, narrow and specialized. They are responsible for those tasks and that’s largely it. This allows Dunga to amplify what a player like Robinho does well while minimizing the exposure the team has to what the player does poorly. In many ways, this is what a manager is supposed to do.

However, there are trade offs involved in implementing any system, particularly a highly specialized one. And the trade off Dunga has made lies in the center of the pitch. Midfield is largely a pragmatic area for Brazil. Almost a region for transit rather than creativity. But again, inside of the system, midfield doesn’t need to be much more. It’s the region where specialization occurs and the ball moves through.

The most multidimensional players on the pitch for Brazil are the full backs. Maicon is wonderful. But perhaps Brazil’s largest weakness is that Bastos isn’t as multidimensional as his role requires. He is vulnerable in defense and can be exploited. But then, no team is perfect and this is a comparatively limited weakness – particularly with the two holding players, the center backs and the quality of the keeper. Depth behind Kaka is the other issue.

I agree that Brazil is the favorite. They are a very strong side. Their tactics well demonstrate how formations and their structures are impacted by the dynamics of a system as the fluid structures metamorphosize. That will be very difficult for national sides that have limited time to learn to play together to react to.

I do wonder however if Dunga has selected a side in reserves that his too specialized. They will excel in the analytic game they play but they may have some difficulty adapting due to the limited focus on the midfield as an area for imagination.

Tino on June 9, 2010 at 5:51 pm

Euler, would you care to rephrase that? It does look very interesting from the outside…

Stuart Ingham on June 9, 2010 at 5:52 pm

I fully agree with this. In the Review of the Decade article about deep lying playmakers I argued that one of the reasons Barcelona were so brillaint this past year is that they have moved towards incresingly multi-functional players.

Rafa the Gaffer has shown that managers that take the opposite approach, seeing players as having clearly defined roles with narrow scopes, can have a lot of success in knock out tournaments. However, I still think the limitations of Melo and Gilberto will inevitbly lead to them having a 0-0 or two.

Victor on June 9, 2010 at 8:00 pm

But, I think in a tight game like a 0-0 or 1-1, Dunga will always have the dead ball situations to get the goal. This was seen when Dunga brought on Alves with about 5 minutes to spare in the South Africa game and he was immediately fouled and then scored the winning goal on a FK.

Alves, though, still appears to have some trouble with the Jabulani. At the moment, it appears that Elano will be the main right foot shot since he’s been hitting the free kicks in practice. Bastos, as we saw in the Zimbabwe game, knows very well how to hit the new ball.

Roberticus on June 9, 2010 at 6:41 pm

ZM,

I have just posted an article on my blog which details the adjustments that Dunga has been making during recent friendlies versus Zimbabwe and Tanzania.

The post also describes some developments occuring during Brazil’s training sessions as Dunga goes about tweaking his side at the eleventh hour.

Could we be about to see the Melo-Silva axis broken up?

Cheers

Carlos on June 9, 2010 at 7:27 pm

I sure hope so

Pedro on June 9, 2010 at 7:42 pm

Roberticus, your post is EXCELLENT.
Couldn’t agree more with the acknowledgment of Josue’s value as a tenacious holding midfielder. As Lucas Esper pointed above in reply to my comment, it’s likely Felipe Melo will be dropped at some stage of the tournament.
I’ve already linked to your post in my twitter feed. Abraço.

Roberticus on June 10, 2010 at 2:58 am

Thanks for the tweet link Pedro, much appreciated

Santiago on June 9, 2010 at 8:59 pm

Roberticus, amazing article.

Just a question, during the Copa America, Josue played to the left of the central midfielder, mainly in the place of Felipe Melo. Do you see him with any chance of playing there, bringing only a single change to the team, but providing much better passing and “salida”? I see him as a liability in aerial play though, that’s why I’m not fully convinced about him in the central mid role, who normally has to double as a third central def.

Roberticus on June 10, 2010 at 3:14 am

Well, the substitutions only appeared to work through functioning as a whole; if you introduce Josue for Felipe Melo yet persist with Gilberto Silva (or vice-versa)the side probably won’t be injected with the same urgency as when the midfield is composed of Jose, Dani Alves and Ramires.

Dunga’s decision at any rate will probably come down to a choice between sticking with Melo-Silva or adopting this diamond; he is not the kind of guy to go for fuzzy, halfway-house compromises. And if he does introduce the diamond, I have the feeling that he won’t do so until he has at least tested Melo-Silva (who he feels have served him well) in the first group game.

Seybold on June 10, 2010 at 4:11 am

Roberticus, thanks for the fascinating post about Brazil’s changes versus Tanzania. The prospect of Maicon and Dani Alves both pushing forward together from the right has given any side wanting to win the tournament something to think about; I could see Spain with Capdevilla on the left struggling to contain that.

Amidst all the Bastos baiting (of which I indulged in earlier), it should be noted that in the group stage’s two pivotal games, he’ll be up against limited right-backs – Eboue, and Ferreira. Presuming they’re occupied by Robinho, and the defensive-midfielders have eyes on Maicon, Kaka and Bastos could wreak havoc down the left.

An aside: during the South-North Korea WCQ game (1-0), I recall Mun In-Guk making diagonal darts to the right flank on the counter. Matters could get exciting if this catches Bastos out!

Roberticus on June 10, 2010 at 2:55 am

Martyn,

what is of concern is that these doubts generated over Michel’s positional sense have emerged from games against Tanzania and Zimbabwe!

Marcelo Falcon on June 9, 2010 at 8:53 pm

Brazil’s only weak point to me is vulnerability on the wings, especially to wing backs. Looking at the defending diagram, there’s a lot of room for a wing back to play behind a winger and get good space to create. Seems like the only weak point to me.

Not a great source of tactical knowledge, but this can be observed in the 2010 FWC Videogame. I often beat Brazil users playing the default formation by passing to my full backs and then looking for one-two passes to get into dangerous areas.

Brazil 2010 are a fascinating side tactically, and one I expect to win the tournament. But for a team with an incredible history of skilful, imagintive, clever passers in central midfielders, the G. Silva and Melo axis is both sad and one which I would argue that sells Brazil short in the area. I would be one of the first to argue that the ‘82 side was a bit too aesthetically ambitious, but there’s a middle ground.

The ‘86 side, with Santana having the experience of ‘82, was both great value offensively like in ‘82 (still playing a wonderful-to-watch patient proactive game… although they took awhile to get going) AND defensively (even counting Spain’s disallowed goal that should have counted, only two goals were conceded in five games). I find it interesting that ZM used the failure of ‘06 to suggest that the style of ‘70 isn’t possible; Zagallo himself sees the ‘70 side being 4-2-3-1 in defence with plenty of defensive workrate, quite unlike ‘06. Brazil 1970’s backline and GK probably wouldn’t be good enough for them to win a modern WC possessing more depth (or at least to do so in as dominating fashion), but the style or basic setup of the side hasn’t been made obsolete by the 40 years of tactical change since (and not all of its necessarily progressive, I think).

A failure for Brazil to win SA 2010 – which would make the time since 2002 their longest run without a WC since the 24-year drought between ‘70 and ‘94 – might finally make the forces that be in Brazil wonder what use it is to so heavily prioritise defensive security and not really worry about quality passing when it comes to defensive midfielders. Back in 2008, while Brazil were struggling under Dunga in WCQ and the Olympics and Spain won Euro 2008, there were already voices in Brazil suggesting that Spain were the ones to look up. Personally I find it hard to love Brazil when there’s so much to gain if they’re forced into a major tactical rethink after SA 2010.

As for their tournament chances, Dunga is a clever man and moreso than he’s sometimes thought to be both as a player and manager. But he’s always felt so strongly about Brazil being “specialists in losing” between ‘70 and ‘94 that I fear he’s gone a bit too heavy when it’s come to not wanting to be caught out and sticking with technically-questionable players he entrusts mentally at the expense of others that are the opposite.

I don’t think I’m trying to say that Brazil are unbalanced because they’re not; they’re defensively secure, superb at holding on to a lead but very capable of scoring goals too. Put it this way, to get their balance it’s almost like they’ve really heavily stacked the extreme ends of a team’s metaphorical see-saw. Fielding all three of Luis Fabiano, Kaka, Robinho and giving the full-backs so much attacking license is kind of courageous, but the pragmatism of the defensive midfielders has to compensate for it. Euler kind of says it for me. Rather than just about every player being quite multidimensional and the side being strategically versatile (the weights being fairly evenly stacked across the see-saw), there’s a lot of speciality in terms of the players and the game plan (to quote stevehold “The mentality is that ”don’t concede, we will have a chance to score.””, but being behind and chasing a game against a tough team will be a major challenge for them).

I can admire them, sure, I can see the intelligence and efficiency of Dunga’s tactics, I can see the brilliance of some of their attacking (and defensive) players, I see that they can play some beautifully fluid counter-attacking football, but I can’t love them. Because I grew up watching Brazil in 1982 and 1986, when Joga Bonito did seem to exist, when the Brazilian solution to having four great playmakers in the squad (Zico, Socrates, Falcao, Cerezo – does Brazil produce midfielders like that anymore? Or is it all massive, frighteningly athletic pitbulls without any flair? The sight of Josue and Gilberto Silva patrolling midfield for Brazil will never fail to depress me) was basically, “sod it, play them all”, when they attacked even when they didn’t have to and won nothing. Thats a Brazil I can love. Flamboyant & joyous and fulfilling all the cliches that the football press still wrongly suggest this team fulfill.

Think they’ll win the tournament, mind you. That Copa America Final against Argentina showed that this Brazil side is built to play sides like Spain.

Your superb site continues to excel, ZM. Now my first stop in my daily trawl of football websites. Awesome work.

Mario on June 9, 2010 at 11:57 pm

Great analysis once again, man. But I wouldn’t place us so high on the favourites list. Two main problems on this team really worry me. First, the lack of options in the bench. Dunga is one-player away from turning this team into a rigid and flairless counter-attacking machine. And that player is Kaká. Our whole game is based on him, and if he struggles with fitness during the competition, Dunga’s only option will be replacing him for Júlio Baptista. Júlio generally played well for the Seleção when asked, but I never really liked him and he’s simply not good enough to pull the strings in our midfield. So, that leaves us with the first problem: the lack of attacking options in the bench. The players available are Nilmar, Daniel Alves and Ramires. Ramires is a 2°DM that adds a lot of speed to the game in his own way and is lethal on counter-attacks, but can’t have so much effect in the game when he’s not given space and his lack of technical ability is exposed. A very useful player, but not a match winner. Nilmar has played even better than Robinho for us in 2009, I would say, but he’s a striker, not a playmaker. And Daniel’s impact is huge, but pretty much restricted to the right. Besides, no player in the squad has the ability to control the rhytym of the match, not even Kaká. Now, if Dunga had called Ganso or Ronaldinho (especially Ganso) instead of Kléberson … The second problem is our inability to break organized teams that simply decide to sit back and defend with like 9 men against us. It doesn’t even have to be a top class team, just remember how much we struggled to beat South Africa last year. Mainly due to the lack of technical skills in Felipe Melo and Gilberto Silva, I think. If the opposition closes the spaces of the players ahead of them well, they’ll be forced to spend more time with the ball than they should, and that would be a disaster. Again, the lack of a proper back-up could help in unlocking those defences. Our set-pieces are extremely good and can help in that aspect, but I wished for a little bit more.

And about Spain, I think it would be a very exciting match if we meet. They’re certainly better in terms of talent at the moment, but I think they can also become a little bit exposed to counter-attacks sometimes. And that’s where Maicon, Robinho, Kaká and maybe Ramires come in.

Seybold on June 10, 2010 at 3:01 am

Interesting point about the side being one player (Kaka) away from being a pure counterattacking side, and the lack of ability to dictate the rhythm of a match and break down organized defenses.

Without Kaka I wonder if Brazil could look like they did in Copa America in 2007, where the counterattack worked brilliantly against Argentina in the final, but in the group stage match once Mexico scored first, Brazil struggled to get back in the game, and never really succeeded.

It’s brave of Dunga to not really have any Plan B. Brave or foolhardy.

I don’t really remember the match against Mexico, to be honest, that was one to forget. About the Copa América final, I believe we’re stronger than that team in every possible aspect at the moment. Before the arrival of Felipe Melo in 2009, the base of our midfield was like one of the most boring and annoying things I’ve ever seen. Dunga spent more than a year using Gilberto Silva + Josué (or Mineiro) + Elano (sometimes Lucas or Anderson), and our worst performances are from that time (end of 2007 and the whole 2008). The 0-0 draws against Argentina, Bolivia and Peru at home (I admit that I fell asleep in a couple of these) and unability to control the game away from home were the worse part. They used to take ages to move the ball from the defence to the attack, and there was no criativity or dangerous off-the-ball movement coming from the trio whatsoever. With Elano solidifying his spot in the right, Felipe Melo getting more and more space in the left side of the midfield (because, let’s admit, Felipe is better with the ball than any other player that Dunga used in that position, and was Gilberto’s best partner in all of these years) and Kaká and Dunga reaching an understandment in terms of tactics, the whole team became a lot more comfortable in possession. Anyway, the presence of Kaká itself pretty much obliges Dunga to play more offensively than in that match. Dunga knows he’s the best player we have (and my only hope) and also knows that he’ll play much better if we actually keep possession sometimes. We still have players that like possession football after all, and these players are Kaká and Robinho. Without them, it would really look like a mechanical team.

Back on topic, I think we’re much better in solving that problem you mentioned (not being able to get a win when the opposition scores the first), at the moment but more because of pure and simple motivational skills from Dunga and the ability of some players to decide the game on their won (especially Kaká and Luís Fabiano) than because of the tactical options that we have on the bench. Just remember the Confederations Cup final, when we came back from half-time with a 0-2 and completely turned the match in our favour, with Dunga’s only substitution being Elano for Ramires (like I said, he can’t do much when he’s not given space). Based on his interviews, I guess his plan B is inserting Daniel instead of Elano or maybe even some of the DMs (that’s just me wondering, ’cause I’ve never seen him switching one of those two for anyone who’s more offensive than Ramires). That’s all. Well, our only good option in the bench apart from Nilmar (great player, but still striker) is Daniel Alves, who’ll probably be more of a midfielder than a proper right-back. That Maicon + Daniel combo worked really well when Dunga tried it, especially against Argentina in 2007 and Chile in 2009. I would like to see that combo since the first minute, but I guess Dunga prefers to have Elano amongst the starters (deserves to be there) and Daniel as some kind of super-sub. Anyway, don’t expect to see Dunga subbing Gilberto Silva for Júlio Baptista on half-time if we’re losing, for example. Not that Júlio Baptista would bring so much benefit anyway.