Uh oh: Chinese ships sail into Japanese waters near disputed islands

posted at 10:03 pm on September 13, 2012 by Allahpundit

Twitter is blowing up over this as I’m writing. The best thing I can do to get you up to speed is send you to this nifty Foreign Policy precis of the standoff. Nutshell version: Japan says the islands, which it calls the Senkaku, belong to it. (In fact, the Japanese government formally purchased them from their private owners just two days ago, partly to prevent them from being bought by Japanese nationalists and developed to spite China.) China says that the islands, which it calls the Diaoyu, actually belong to it per post-WWII agreements. The U.S. is obliged by treaty to defend Japan if it’s attacked; on the other hand, the agreements China’s citing to stake its own claim to the islands were authored by the U.S. Time for the Foreign-Policy President and Hillary to huddle. Quickly.

Two eternally rival nations, one a rising power and the other fading, locked in a territorial dispute that stems in part from the last time they went to war with each other. What could go wrong?

In 1971, the U.S. and Japan signed a treaty reverting Okinawa and the surrounding islands back to Japanese control, which stated “the United States of America relinquishes in favour of Japan all rights and interests under Article III of the Treaty of Peace with Japan signed at the City of San Francisco.”

China points to its own agreement with the United States, the 1943 Cairo statement issued by Winston Churchill, Franklin Roosevelt and Chiang Kai-shek. The three leaders agreed that following the war, “Japan shall be stripped of all the islands in the Pacific which she has seized or occupied since the beginning of the first World War in 1914, and that all the territories Japan has stolen from the Chinese, such as Manchuria, Formosa, [Taiwan] and The Pescadores, shall be restored to the Republic of China.” If you accept, as Beijing does, that Diaoyu was part of Chinese-ruled Taiwan prior to 1895, then that would indicate that it would be returned to China along with the other seized islands. (It would also mean that the U.S. military was bombing Chinese territory throughout the ’50s and ’60s, but that’s another issue.)

Despite the history, the U.S. State Department has stated that “the US does not take a position on the question of the ultimate sovereignty of the Senkaku Islands.” But further complicating matters is the 1960 Treaty of Mutual Cooperation and Security between the United States and Japan. According to Article 5 of the treaty, “Each Party recognizes that an armed attack against either Party in the territories under the administration of Japan would be dangerous to its own peace and safety and declares that it would act to meet the common danger in accordance with its constitutional provisions and processes.”

A State Department official told a Japanese news agency in July that the islands do fall under Article 5, so either the U.S. will be drawn in here on Japan’s side or else it’ll break the treaty to avoid a confrontation with China. (What that would mean for further Chinese aggression in the East China Sea, including Taiwan, who knows?) Anyway, the news tonight from Reuters:

Two Chinese patrol ships entered Japanese territorial waters near disputed islets claimed by both Beijing and Tokyo on Friday, Japan’s Coast Guard said, marking the latest incident in a long-running dispute between China and Japan.

The Chinese ships have not followed the coast guard’s order to go out of the territorial waters, a Japan coast guard official said.

According to Chinese media, they’re surveillance ships. Russia Today — which is a Kremlin-backed news outfit, for what it’s worth — says there are actually eight Chinese ships in the area, four inside the disputed zone and four outside, and that Japan has set up a “crisis center” and “urgently” summoned the Chinese ambassador. There’s another report floating around that, as of last night, three more Chinese surveillance ships were spotted near the Scarborough Shoal,another disputed territory — this one between China, Taiwan, and the Phillippines. Looks like China’s sending a message to all of its regional rivals at once. The Phillippines is itself ready to send ships to the shoal; no word yet on whether the Chinese ships are still there.

I’m seeing next to nothing on this so far in U.S. media, but Raymond Pritchett’s Twitter feed is chock full of new info. (Most of the above links are harvested from him.) Stick with his feed for updates. One interesting wrinkle: Apparently there’s a typhoon headed for the islands tonight, which might be the pretext used by both sides to pull out and save face/declare victory. Panetta’s scheduled to travel to the region “soon.” No doubt it’ll be sooner than he’d planned.

Blowback

Note from Hot Air management: This section is for comments from Hot Air's community of registered readers. Please don't assume that Hot Air management agrees with or otherwise endorses any particular comment just because we let it stand. A reminder: Anyone who fails to comply with our terms of use may lose their posting privilege.

There’s another report floating around that, as of last night, three more Chinese surveillance ships were spotted near the Scarborough Shoal, another disputed territory — this one between China, Taiwan, and the Phillippines.

Looks like the Chinese are going for Door No. 2, Romney, they do polls here, too, real polls. Why? They are the largest holder of our debt and would prefer to be paid back in somewhat real dollars than grossly inflated ones, which they’ll get with four more years of Obama and Bernanke. This move against Japan is their wagging the dog moment, and well done, by the way.

In fact, neither China nor Taiwan had taken up the question of sovereignty over the islands until the latter half of 1970 when evidence relating to the existence of oil resources deposited in the East China Sea surfaced.

Why are you covering stuff like this when the REAL media are focused on important stuff. Turn on CNN now. Chuck Todd and Lawrence O’Donnell have party hats on and are toasting the new polling with champagne.

I dunno guys, it’s not my country. But if I was an American, I’d be storming the fucking newsrooms right now. It’s like fucking 1984.

There is so muchs tuff going on, like Romney’s— dog, and horsey, and taxes, and shirts—plus he is shooting without aiming and…..who has timefor such petty problems like a war looming at our ally’s doorstep.
If they are an ally that is.

A State Department official told a Japanese news agency in July that the islands do fall under Article 5, so either the U.S. will be drawn in here on Japan’s side or else it’ll break the treaty to avoid a confrontation with China. (What that would mean for further Chinese aggression in the East China Sea, including Taiwan, who knows?)

No way China starts a war over this cheap real estate. A little saber-rattling can’t hurt, though, they know our CIC is MIA. If the election was in the bag for Obama, what’s going on right now with the Mid-East and China probably wouldn’t be happening. They know he’s weak and they know he’s not going to put himself in front of these things at the moment, not when Obama is preoccupied with the election and Vegas fundraisers.

China, and everyone else in the world know we are “Soft” and have a weakling for president. Watch the grab bag free for all begin world wide. No nation will take a chance on the fact that Romney may win. Now they will grab everything they can on OBAMA’S WATCH KNOWING THAT THE NEXT ‘PRESIDENT WILL HAVE A HARD TIME ROLLING THESE COMING EVENTS BACK AND CHANGING THE SOON TO BE, “FACTS ON THE GROUND. (OR SEA.”) And we thought Jimmy carter was soft!

So….. I guess this would be a great time for Russia to flex its muscle in Gerogia or Eastern Europe. I’m think China smelled blood after the very weak response to the ki8llings of our people in the middle east. If I was Putin I would push as hard as I could until I met resistence . Hell who knows with this POTUS Putin could take back all of the iron curtain before Obama figured out who was and wasn’t our allies.

You guys think it’s so easy. If we just quit ‘intervening’ the world would love us. You should understand that complacency is why we’re here today. If we leave a power vacuum in Asia, China will fill it. Your world is an obtainable idealism and you’ll never get it.

China, and everyone else in the world know we are “Soft” and have a weakling for president. Watch the grab bag free for all begin world wide. No nation will take a chance on the fact that Romney may win. Now they will grab everything they can on OBAMA’S WATCH KNOWING THAT THE NEXT ‘PRESIDENT WILL HAVE A HARD TIME ROLLING THESE COMING EVENTS BACK AND CHANGING THE SOON TO BE, “FACTS ON THE GROUND. (OR SEA.”) And we thought Jimmy carter was soft!

blogforce one on September 13, 2012 at 10:32 PM

It’s a win-win for them. Even if Obama wins he will do nothing but say how sorry he was that America held them back for so long.

The Chinese population feel extremely emotional about this issue, especially concerning the Japanese stepping on their toes.

No love lost, to say the least. The Japanese will either back down or they are going to get wacked.

rickyricardo on September 13, 2012 at 10:28 PM

The Chinese leadership could care less about this but will use it to gin up their population. What the leadership there cares about is whether they’re going get paid back in real dollars on the huge debt they hold against us, or significantly inflated dollars due to Obama’s and Bernanke’s money printing. Their moves against Japan, and maybe in the next few weeks against Taiwan, will be aimed to get assurances from Obama that they will get paid back in real dollars, inflation adjusted, if necessary. This will roil the markets big time.

You guys think it’s so easy. If we just quit ‘intervening’ the world would love us. You should understand that complacency is why we’re here today. If we leave a power vacuum in Asia, China will fill it. Your world is an obtainable idealism and you’ll never get it.

Chinas blood is up over this…..not the just the Chinese governments blood.

rickyricardo on September 13, 2012 at 10:35 PM

since China is a communist nation and their media is owned by the state. Whatever is being reported to get thier blood up iswhat the government wants reported. China is going to war. It is the nature of man. China will flex their power. And we are powerless to stop them since our entire manufacturing base was shipped to China for the cheaper costs. What will we do. If we defend Japan China shuts off trade. Their economy is in the crapper. they have millions of young males unemployed. If they don’t give the people something to focus on the people will focus on their government and condition. It is why always during world wide economic stagnation nations go to war.

They don’t have the hegemony for that yet. But they have been making quite a few moves in their own back yard lately. If you think a Chinese hegemony is a good idea, you’d be betting on disaster.

The world has stayed together after the Cold War because the U.S. has had a proactive role in policing it. Sure, with a bit of reluctance, but it’s falling apart because we’ve aloof for the past 4 years.

It’s easy to think we should ‘leave that crazy part of the world’, but if it were easy, we’d already be gone. That’s what you don’t understand. And yes, our complacency would mean that a lot of people would die, including Americans. In fact, Americans died 2 days ago because of it.

Does anyone think the timing of this action, the Arab uprisings against our embassies, and the impending war between Israel & Iran is accidental ???

China is very upset with Ben Bernanke’s Inflate-athon announced today – especially since it’s an anniversary of sorts:

On September 13, 2008, Timothy F. Geithner, then president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York called a meeting on the future of Lehman, which included the possibility of an emergency liquidation of its assets.[15] Lehman reported that it had been in talks with Bank of America and Barclays for the company’s possible sale.[15] The New York Times reported on September 14, 2008, that Barclays had ended its bid to purchase all or part of Lehman and a deal to rescue the bank from liquidation collapsed.[16] It emerged subsequently that a deal had been vetoed by the Bank of England and the UK’s Financial Services Authority.[17] Leaders of major Wall Street banks continued to meet late that day to prevent the bank’s rapid failure.[16] Bank of America’s rumored involvement also appeared to end as federal regulators resisted its request for government involvement in Lehman’s sale.[16]

Lehman Brothers filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection on September 15, 2008. According to Bloomberg, reports filed with the U.S. Bankruptcy Court, Southern District of New York (Manhattan) on September 16 indicated that JPMorgan Chase & Co. provided Lehman Brothers with a total of $138 billion in “Federal Reserve-backed advances.” The cash-advances by JPMorgan Chase were repaid by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York for $87 billion on September 15 and $51 billion on September 16.[18]

Yep! This is all coincidental. Just like us having a President too busy to meet with the Israeli Prime Minister but NOT too busy to meet with the head of the Muslim Brotherhood.

As much as we need China, they need us more. They’re not going to war over these islands.

ButterflyDragon on September 13, 2012 at 10:42 PM

Many wars start because of a lack of clear understanding of whats involved. Iraq invaded Kuwait thinking that the US would accept that. Argentina invaded the Falklands thinking that Britain had seen its best days and would not fight.

This also assumes the US would fight for those islands. With Obama in charge I have my doubts.

As much as we need China, they need us more. They’re not going to war over these islands.

ButterflyDragon on September 13, 2012 at 10:42 PM

they don’t need us. they have over a billion consumers inhouse. Our 300million now that we have allowed our wealth to flee to china no longer matters in the grand scheme of things. We are for a better phrase “just another marketplace” that can be replaced. China has the technology, the education and now the wealth to fully fund their own economy. That was after all the entire reason behind our forgiegn policy towards China and other 3rd world nations for the last 40 odd years. Build them up and get them out of poverty and bring our own standard of living down. the thinking was that wars were due to the inequility in wealth and goods. the theory went if you took away those inequalities wars would be a thing of the past. The same people think the same about religion and thus the war on christianity in the west over the same time period. The theory is proving to be full of crap. But any thinking person knew that when Nixion went to China.