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Thu, 07 Aug 2014 18:34:56 +0000en-UShourly1http://wordpress.org/?v=4.2.2UFC Fight Night 40 Previewhttp://www.fightmania.com/mma-editorials/ufc-fight-night-40-preview/
http://www.fightmania.com/mma-editorials/ufc-fight-night-40-preview/#commentsThu, 10 Apr 2014 05:52:46 +0000http://www.fightmania.com/?p=10184UFC is having another of its Fight Pass event while adding two UFC fan favorites to the top of the card in another attempt to get fans to shell out the bucks to subscribe to the digital service. No matter your thoughts on Fight Pass, I’m here to provide you with a little insight and […]

]]>UFC is having another of its Fight Pass event while adding two UFC fan favorites to the top of the card in another attempt to get fans to shell out the bucks to subscribe to the digital service. No matter your thoughts on Fight Pass, I’m here to provide you with a little insight and plenty of opinion on the main card fights, including the main event between Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira and Roy Nelson.

Beneil Dariush vs. Ramsey Nijem

Dariush made a splash in his UFC debut, making short work of veteran fighter Charlie Brenneman. After rocking him with an overhand left, he secured the rear naked choke to finish the fight, which may have given a better impression of his striking skills than what would be realistic.

In Nijem, Dariush has an aggressive opponent who is also not a top-notch striker but does bring aggressiveness and flashy tactics to the table to challenge him. Nijem is also a quality wrestler who will likely be able to get takedowns on at least a somewhat regular basis, should he commit to them.

Nijem should be able to win at least one of the first two rounds if he stays out of trouble, and from there, he’ll be able to cruise as Dariush fades under the constant pressure late. His only real test will be avoiding the submission attempts of Dariush.

Prediction: Nijem by decision

John Howard vs. Ryan LaFlare

Howard has carved a nice career out of solid wrestling and good power- he’s in his second stint in the UFC and has won both of his fights since returning. Meanwhile, LaFlare is an undefeated fighter with ten wins under his belt, including three in the Octagon. His biggest win, against Court McGee, showed that LaFlare could grind out a win against tough competition.

However, it also showed that even someone with a fairly lackluster ability to finish can put LaFlare in trouble, likely because LaFlare still has a few holes to shore up in his game. Against “Doomsday”, that flaw could be fatal as he’s not likely to let LaFlare escape or recover the way that McGee did.

LaFlare knows Howard is dangerous and will try to be careful while he scores points and wears him down. However, it only takes one good shot from Howard to change the complexion of the fight, and LaFlare isn’t ready to throw a no-hitter.

Prediction: Howard by KO/TKO

Clay Guida vs. Tatsuya Kawajiri

It’s almost hard to believe now, but yes, Clay Guida was once a fan favorite. Now, he’s a much more divisive athlete, as the fans he has left have stuck with him through thick and thin, while his detractors are just as outspoken about their disapproval.

Like all polarizing figures, he’s an avatar of sorts that represents something fans don’t like. In his case, Guida represents “lay and pray”, which is an oversimplification of the idea that many skilled wrestlers actually avoid fighting using their wrestling, instead of capitalizing on their wrestling skills to do damage or threaten opponents.

Still, Guida is also capable of wildly exciting fights, and has ten UFC wins under his belt. He’ll be Kawajiri’s first real test in the Octagon, too. Kawajiri is a longtime Japanese standout that could have given Guida a real run for it a couple of years ago, with his blend of strength and grappling ability.

Now, though, he’ll struggle to keep up with Guida’s pace and control for all three rounds. Neither is the type to land a knockout shot while standing, but Guida is a decent enough striker who often seems to even has his misses scored as direct hits by the judges. Overall, Kawajiri will not fade or break, but will still lose as Guida does enough to win the fight by decision and further frustrate his detractors.

Prediction: Guida by decision

Roy Nelson vs. Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira

Two fan favorites who have likely seen their best days already face off in the heavyweight division, each one badly needing a win to retain some sort of relevance. Nogueira was once the consensus top heavyweight in the world before running into the unbeatable force known as Fedor Emelianenko in Pride. Since then, he’s largely hung around the top ten, won a UFC interim belt, and added some more big names to his resumé while building a Hall of Fame career.

Nelson hasn’t had the career that Nogueira has, but he also hasn’t faded as far from his prime as Big Nog has. Nelson’s chin is still largely unquestionable, which puts him one up on Nogueira right off the bat. Nogueira’s sturdy chin has started to betray him, although his mind and heart are still more than willing to get into the kinds of wars that made him famous. In terms of technique, Nogueira has always been a capable boxer, even though he gets sucked into brawling exchanges and forgets to move his head too often. Nelson is also a decent striker, but has fallen in love with his power and become the stereotypical MMA slugger who is always looking for that one overhand right, much like Chuck Liddell and Dan Henderson.

I’d love to see this one play out on the mat, but I don’t know that we’ll get that. Neither man has extremely strong takedowns, and with his advantage standing up, Nelson won’t be enticed to try Nogueira on the mat. Nogueira would most benefit from a takedown, especially because Nelson is not nearly as dangerous off of his back as he is while on top, but Nelson will be up to the task of stopping Nog’s takedowns.

In a long fight, Nelson still won’t fade as much as many expect, and if he’s continued to drop unnecessary pounds off of his frame, that will be even more the case in this bout. The key here is that Nelson possesses power that Nog doesn’t, and he hasn’t absorbed the punishment Nogueira has over the years. In a five-rounder, I like Nelson’s chances to catch Nogueira with something big.

]]>http://www.fightmania.com/mma-editorials/ufc-fight-night-40-preview/feed/0Watch Patrick Cummins stir the pot some more (Video)http://www.fightmania.com/mma-videos/watch-patrick-cummins-stir-pot-video/
http://www.fightmania.com/mma-videos/watch-patrick-cummins-stir-pot-video/#commentsSat, 22 Feb 2014 07:32:03 +0000http://www.fightmania.com/?p=10177Even with Ronda Rousey taking a more muted approach to her next title defense since she’s facing a soft-spoken fighter whom she respects in Sara McMann, you can count on the UFC’s newest fighter, Patrick Cummins, to liven things up as he continues his Chael Sonnen Jr. approach ahead of his fight with Daniel Cormier. […]

Even with Ronda Rousey taking a more muted approach to her next title defense since she’s facing a soft-spoken fighter whom she respects in Sara McMann, you can count on the UFC’s newest fighter, Patrick Cummins, to liven things up as he continues his Chael Sonnen Jr. approach ahead of his fight with Daniel Cormier. How much does Cummins provoke Cormier now that the fight is just days away? You’ll have to watch to find out.

]]>http://www.fightmania.com/mma-videos/watch-patrick-cummins-stir-pot-video/feed/0Check out the UFC 170 weigh-ins (Video)http://www.fightmania.com/mma-videos/check-ufc-170-weigh-ins-video/
http://www.fightmania.com/mma-videos/check-ufc-170-weigh-ins-video/#commentsSat, 22 Feb 2014 07:12:15 +0000http://www.fightmania.com/?p=10168We’re just a day away from UFC 170, which means it’s time for the weigh-ins. If you missed them live, check out the video, which includes Ronda Rousey weighing in to defend her UFC Women’s Bantamweight Championship against fellow Olympic medalist Sara McMann, as well as the surprisingly intriguing bout between former Olympic wrestler Daniel […]

We’re just a day away from UFC 170, which means it’s time for the weigh-ins. If you missed them live, check out the video, which includes Ronda Rousey weighing in to defend her UFC Women’s Bantamweight Championship against fellow Olympic medalist Sara McMann, as well as the surprisingly intriguing bout between former Olympic wrestler Daniel Cormier and his old training partner, Patrick Cummins.

]]>http://www.fightmania.com/mma-videos/check-ufc-170-weigh-ins-video/feed/0UFC 170 Betting Preview: Rousey vs. McMannhttp://www.fightmania.com/mma-editorials/ufc-170-betting-preview-rousey-vs-mcmann/
http://www.fightmania.com/mma-editorials/ufc-170-betting-preview-rousey-vs-mcmann/#commentsFri, 21 Feb 2014 07:39:29 +0000http://www.fightmania.com/?p=10180While UFC 170 may have lost some luster when Rashad Evans was forced to drop out with a knee injury, it may have added some intrigue with last-minute fill-in Patrick Cummins being a huge underdog against Daniel Cormier. There’s also Ronda Rousey facing her biggest challenge yet while defending her UFC Bantamweight Championship against Sara […]

]]>While UFC 170 may have lost some luster when Rashad Evans was forced to drop out with a knee injury, it may have added some intrigue with last-minute fill-in Patrick Cummins being a huge underdog against Daniel Cormier. There’s also Ronda Rousey facing her biggest challenge yet while defending her UFC Bantamweight Championship against Sara McMann.

Even as the guy who wrote that no one will ever beat Ronda Rousey, I’m surprised at how lopsided the odds are in her favor.

I’ll go into much more detail in my actual UFC 170 preview, but in short, do I think that Rousey will win? Yes. Do I think she should be a 1/5 favorite? Absolutely not.

Here’s someone who is best at exactly the same area that Rousey has dominated her previous opponents. She also shares the same weakness when it comes to striking, since neither one has nearly the time in at standup fighting as they both do in grappling. So while I think Rousey deserves to be a solid favorite, I’d be very tempted to put a little money on McMann at 15/4 odds.

In the co-main event, late replacement Patrick Cummins takes on top five heavyweight-turned-light heavyweight Daniel Cormier:

I can’t imagine anyone putting money on Cormier other than as part of a parlay at these odds, no matter how sure a thing you may believe he is. I mean, putting up $1200 to win $100 in a sport like MMA where just about anything can happen? No thanks.

But what about Cummins? Is he worth a speculative play at 13/2? I would honestly almost say yes if McMann wasn’t a much better value at almost the same odds. The one thing that makes me pause before saying not to bet on Cummins is that Cormier himself is still very green. We’ve seen in recent fights that he has relied more and more on his base since upping the level of his competition, and now he’ll be facing someone who has the same base, even if not the same skill.

Plus, Cormier’s in a new weight class and cardio could become a factor. I think Cummins is a better choice if it’s a five-round fight instead of a three-rounder for that very fact, but I wouldn’t be made at you for tossing a little money in in case Cummins can steal a round early and take advantage of Cormier fading late.

The Smart Bet–

I think Rousey and Cormier are solid favorites, but the odds for the underdogs McMann and even Cummins make them intriguing possibilities. MMA is a crazy sport, and add in variables like judges and referees who occasionally forget how to do their jobs, and who knows? Elsewhere on the card, Demian Maia at 23/10 isn’t bad, but then again, Rory MacDonald is tailor-made to frustrate Maia, who has a history of trouble closing distance against solid strikers with good takedown defense. MacDonald’s jab makes it even harder for Maia, who is frustratingly patient and often has that quality work against him, as it did against Jake Shields. Stephen “Wonderboy” Thompson and Zach “Fun Size” Makovsky not only share great nicknames, but their designation as favorites that are decent plays at 10/13 and 4/7, respectively.

]]>http://www.fightmania.com/mma-editorials/ufc-170-betting-preview-rousey-vs-mcmann/feed/1Let UFC Countdown get you amped for Rousey-McMann (Video)http://www.fightmania.com/mma-videos/let-ufc-countdown-get-amped-rousey-mcmann-video/
http://www.fightmania.com/mma-videos/let-ufc-countdown-get-amped-rousey-mcmann-video/#commentsThu, 20 Feb 2014 07:22:00 +0000http://www.fightmania.com/?p=10174Okay, so with Maia-MacDonald and Cormier-Cummins as the two fights immediately below the main event for UFC 170, the card may not be all that highly-anticipated at this point, but let me play devil’s advocate here. Isn’t seeing Ronda Rousey get what will almost certainly be her biggest test to date worth something? Honestly, other […]

Okay, so with Maia-MacDonald and Cormier-Cummins as the two fights immediately below the main event for UFC 170, the card may not be all that highly-anticipated at this point, but let me play devil’s advocate here. Isn’t seeing Ronda Rousey get what will almost certainly be her biggest test to date worth something? Honestly, other than McMann, I don’t know who could give her a decent challenge. Well, check out the latest of the UFC’s well-produced Countdown specials, featuring the leading ladies of UFC 170, and see if it doesn’t make you anticipate the event just a little bit more.

]]>http://www.fightmania.com/mma-videos/let-ufc-countdown-get-amped-rousey-mcmann-video/feed/0Suddenly, this Cormier-Cummins fight is interesting (Video)http://www.fightmania.com/mma-videos/suddenly-cormier-cummins-fight-interesting-video/
http://www.fightmania.com/mma-videos/suddenly-cormier-cummins-fight-interesting-video/#commentsFri, 14 Feb 2014 07:14:37 +0000http://www.fightmania.com/?p=10171So, what do you do when one-half of your intriguing light heavyweight co-main event suddenly drops out and literally no one else in the top twenty wants any part of being a late replacement? Well, if you can’t make fans believe in the underdog, you could always make them buy into the well-worn “grudge match” […]

So, what do you do when one-half of your intriguing light heavyweight co-main event suddenly drops out and literally no one else in the top twenty wants any part of being a late replacement? Well, if you can’t make fans believe in the underdog, you could always make them buy into the well-worn “grudge match” angle. And a good way to get that going is to have the underdog poke the hornet’s nest with old tales of making the other guy cry in the wrestling room. Oy vey. I hope you know what you’re doing, Patrick Cummins.

]]>http://www.fightmania.com/mma-videos/suddenly-cormier-cummins-fight-interesting-video/feed/0Praise the MMA Gods, Aldo-Pettis May Actually Happenhttp://www.fightmania.com/mma-editorials/praise-mma-gods-aldo-pettis-may-actually-happen/
http://www.fightmania.com/mma-editorials/praise-mma-gods-aldo-pettis-may-actually-happen/#commentsFri, 07 Feb 2014 05:06:04 +0000http://www.fightmania.com/?p=10163It looks like after years of talking about inter-divisional “superfights” between fighters like Georges St. Pierre and Anderson Silva (as well as Silva and Jon Jones), we may actually get one- between UFC Featherweight Champion Jose Aldo and UFC Lightweight Champion Anthony Pettis. This one is different because it’s really more of a case of […]

]]>It looks like after years of talking about inter-divisional “superfights” between fighters like Georges St. Pierre and Anderson Silva (as well as Silva and Jon Jones), we may actually get one- between UFC Featherweight Champion Jose Aldo and UFC Lightweight Champion Anthony Pettis.

This one is different because it’s really more of a case of Jose Aldo moving up permanently, if Dana White is to be believed. Er, unless he doesn’t succeed in taking Pettis’ belt.

“If Aldo lost at 155, he could move back down and challenge the new champion for [the 145-pound] belt,” White said on Fox Sports Live. And get this- Dana even has a solid idea on who would face off for the vacated featherweight title: Cub Swanson and Chad Mendes. It’s hard to argue with that, though Ricardo Lamas, who has already beaten Swanson, may feel a little raw about his timing.

White said he’s not making an official announcement, but the fact that he’s coming out with such a specific matchup gives this entire scenario a lot more legitimacy. Last week, we already heard that both fighters were willing to face off, but then there was talk that Aldo may not be interested in vacating his title.

Then, yesterday Aldo’s coach came out and said that the featherweight champ would either want Pettis to come to his weight class or have the fight take place at a 150-pound catchweight, with neither title on the line. The UFC as well as Pettis flatly declined the latter option.

Now, White says the hurdle that Aldo was struggling with was being “treated like a champion” in a lightweight title fight with Pettis- whatever that means. White assured Aldo that he would be treated as such, whether that means being announced as champ, wearing the belt to the cage, whatever, and now he seems to think the fight is going to happen.

Not everybody is pleased. There is likely a long line of folks in each division that isn’t entirely happy to have their line get longer to a title fight, especially at lightweight. However, lightweight is without a bona fide #1 contender right now outside of perhaps Benson Henderson, who no one is clamoring to see face off with Pettis again, as White recently acknowledged. And at featherweight, I can’t imagine that Swanson or Mendes mind the idea much.

Henderson spoke on Twitter about what he called the “title shot drama” with the following tweet:

U gotta be kidding me?!…my mama taught me to be a better man n keep my mouth shut if I don't have anything nice to say, I'm out #UFC169

Another interesting question is why even have Aldo vacate the title? Couldn’t he just vacate the title once he wins at lightweight, if he’s able to? In the meantime, you could even set up a featherweight tournament that would either end up being for the vacated title (once it has been) or the next shot at Aldo. Hell, have Urijah Faber come up and get in, just for shits and giggles.

Either way, none of us, save for Henderson, can really be mad at the idea of finally getting a champion vs. champion fight in the UFC. Pettis is not the dominant champion yet that GSP, Silva, or Jones have been, taking a tiny bit of the luster off this matchup, but I think the UFC has learned by now that you have to strike while the iron’s hot.

And hey, even if Henderson had dispatched Josh Thomson in impressive fashion, everybody knows by now that in the lightweight division, no title shot is a sure thing until they shut the cage door with the belt on the line.

]]>http://www.fightmania.com/mma-editorials/praise-mma-gods-aldo-pettis-may-actually-happen/feed/0UFC 169 Parting Shotshttp://www.fightmania.com/mma-editorials/ufc-169-parting-shots/
http://www.fightmania.com/mma-editorials/ufc-169-parting-shots/#commentsTue, 04 Feb 2014 17:48:30 +0000http://www.fightmania.com/?p=10103Although Dana White is apparently embarrassed by the quality of UFC 169, it was a decent enough night of fights, despite the lack of finishes. In particular, Jose Aldo and Alistair Overeem have drawn the ire of White, despite the fact that Aldo in particular was as aggressive in his bout as Renan Barao was. […]

]]>Although Dana White is apparently embarrassed by the quality of UFC 169, it was a decent enough night of fights, despite the lack of finishes.

In particular, Jose Aldo and Alistair Overeem have drawn the ire of White, despite the fact that Aldo in particular was as aggressive in his bout as Renan Barao was. He just didn’t benefit from an early stoppage.

How can you really say Aldo isn’t being aggressive? Do you see with your eyeballs how hard he’s throwing those leg kicks? Look, there are “just scoring points” leg kicks and there are “separate your leg from your body” leg kicks. Aldo’s are obviously the latter.

What Aldo did is pick his spots against an opponent who himself was constantly looking to finish the whole night. That’s kind of what fighting is about, Dana. Hitting. Not getting hit. Winning.

And that’s exactly what Overeem did, outstriking Frank Mir by a margin of 139-5. Off the top of my head, I don’t think we’ve seen that lopsided a fight over three or more rounds since BJ Penn outstruck Diego Sanchez 150-8 at UFC 107. And oh- Sanchez was never a UFC champion like Mir was, and Penn didn’t face any criticism after the fight for letting Sanchez hang around for over 22 minutes when he so obviously had him outclassed (the fight was only stopped because the ringside doctor intervened, by the way).

It’s clear that Dana has his favorites, and Overeem just isn’t one of them. That’s fine, I guess, but don’t transparently lie to us and tell us that Overeem’s performance was somehow the stinker of the card. After all, it’s your organization’s cut-happy mentality paired with the monopoly you have in the sport that has created this culture of playing it safe in the MMA business. Overeem knew he was cut if he lost to Mir. Why would he take big chances late in a fight that he was clearly winning? It’s not like he was vying for a title shot- he was fighting to keep his job in the only promotion in the world that can pay him anything close to what he got for Saturday’s fight.

I try to be sensitive to the fact that I’ve never been in there against another world-class fighter and had the pressure of earning a win bonus to provide for my family over my head when I write these columns. Still, there are times when you have to criticize someone for complacently cruising to a close decision loss or doing something else particularly head-scratching. But neither Aldo or Overeem’s fights deserved that criticism. Perhaps the frat boy mentality you’ve cultivated in your own fans, Dana, by openly criticizing your fighters all the time has come back to haunt you now that these same morons expect every card to be Ultimate Knockouts 5.

What does Faber do now?

Well, I don’t think he can make 125 pounds.

I kid. But seriously, I’m as perplexed about what to do here as the next guy. You’ve got a champion in each of the two divisions he’s fought in that he’s lost to (decisively to Aldo, less decisively but multiple times to Barao), and absolutely no one outside of a coach in his own camp wants to see another fight with Barao.

Was the stoppage hasty? It was. But it’s not as if this was a close fight and a barn-burner up until the stoppage. And he had already been repeatedly rocked within that one round. It’s certainly not fair, but as Dana White himself has seen fit to remind us, this is a business, and no one’s going to want to see Faber-Barao 3.

So now, you’ve got a guy who still has a few years left in him and has been fighting better than ever that can’t seem to beat the two champions in the divisions he can fight in. What do you do? Why not put him against other guys in the same position?

In the short run, I think that means you stick him in there with the winner of BJ Penn and Frankie Edgar, if Faber is open to moving back up to his old weight class for a one-off bout. It’ll keep everyone busy, it’d be a big name fight either way, and it wouldn’t be eliminating a young, up-and-coming title contender for no good reason.

Who knows? If Aldo makes good on his threat to move up to 155 pounds, Faber could move up to his old class and be a bona fide contender again. But until then, he’s just treading water and eliminating other would-be contenders all the while, which doesn’t make him quite so useful to the UFC.

Quick Shots

–Abel Trujillo-Jamie Varner was a great fight, no doubt about that. But then again, it gives Varner three losses in four fights. No way he’ll get cut after being what White apparently believes is the lone bright spot in a card of stinkers, but this definitely puts him on the block. Would he really not have been better served with a more measured approach once he hurt Trujillo?

Movin’ On Up Award

Ali Bagautinov’s win over John Lineker has to propel him towards title contention in a division where everyone had Lineker in the top five. Lineker, who has struggled often to make 125 pounds, had won four fights in a row, including three by KO/TKO.

Beautiful Loser Award

This has to go to John Makdessi, who was screwed by the judges against Alan Patrick in a fight that was close but clear. For reference, ten of the eleven media members polled by MMAdecisions.com had Makdessi winning, and the one holdout had it as a draw. One judge, Cardo Urso, had all three rounds inexplicably going to Patrick. Tell me, Cardo, was it the takedowns that Patrick landed which Makdessi immediately stood up from without taking any damage?

Holy $#!% Award

So obvious I almost don’t want to type it- Abel Trujillo’s knockout win over Jamie Varner in an early contender for 2014’s round of the year.

]]>http://www.fightmania.com/mma-editorials/ufc-169-parting-shots/feed/0UFC 169 Previewhttp://www.fightmania.com/mma-editorials/ufc-169-preview/
http://www.fightmania.com/mma-editorials/ufc-169-preview/#commentsSat, 01 Feb 2014 06:57:02 +0000http://www.fightmania.com/?p=10100Although this card took a definite hit when former UFC Bantamweight Champion Dominick Cruz’s injury woes continued and he had to pull out of his unification bout with Renan Barao (and officially drop his title in the process), it’s still a really good card bolstered by two title fights. Multiple time title contender and former […]

]]>Although this card took a definite hit when former UFC Bantamweight Champion Dominick Cruz’s injury woes continued and he had to pull out of his unification bout with Renan Barao (and officially drop his title in the process), it’s still a really good card bolstered by two title fights. Multiple time title contender and former WEC champion Urijah Faber steps in to fight Barao for the second time, while Jose Aldo defends his UFC Featherweight Championship against surging contender Ricardo Lamas.

Abel Trujillo vs. Jamie Varner

Trujillo was originally slated to face Bobby Green, and Varner is pretty much a lateral move both in terms of challenge for Trujillo and entertainment value for the fans. Varner is a good all-around fighter who has made a nice career for himself in the UFC after being fourth banana in the WEC’s lightweight division to standouts Anthony Pettis, Benson Henderson, and Donald Cerrone.

Varner is a solid wrestler and decent striker, and may look to take this one down, since Trujillo is not much when it comes to creating offense off of his back. Trujillo is also pretty dangerous standing up, and can land a takedown or two himself depending on how the fight goes. This one should be close, but I think Trujillo has more power and will be aggressive enough to see it through.

Prediction: Trujillo by KO/TKO

Ali Bagautinov vs. John Lineker

These two sport an impressive combined 6-1 record in the UFC, with Lineker having four of those six wins under his name. He hasn’t lost since his first UFC fight and has won three in a row by KO/TKO. His biggest issue in the Octagon has been making weight, as he has missed a few times already to make the grueling 125-pound limit. He did make it without issue this time, although you wonder whether this is the right weight class for him. Perhaps it is, and he just hadn’t nailed down the right weight cutting process until now.

Bagautinov has sound grappling and is a more precise striker than the wilder Lineker, preferring straighter punches to Lineker’s wider shots. He may be able to beat Lineker to the punch as a result. Both vary their strikes well, with Lineker working to the body as well as the head and Bagautinov mixing in kicks and knees effectively.

Neither guy has outstanding cardio, so that could be a factor here. Ultimately, I’ll take Lineker in a fight that could be pretty entertaining, but where he’ll wobble Bagautinov once or twice in order to get the nod despite not landing the volume of strikes the Russian does.

Prediction: Lineker by decision

Frank Mir vs. Alistair Overeem

I’ve been having a hard time finding confidence in Mir for the last few years, as he seems to have worn down and become much more susceptible to knockouts as his career has started to come to a close. Most problematic is the fact that he doesn’t seem to have the speed that helped set him apart from bigger heavyweights years ago. He has looked downright lethargic even in victory, with his forgettable (until the finish) win over Mirko “Cro Cop” Filipovic coming to mind. When he beat Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira with a kimura, he was also rocked just before the final sequence, let’s not forget.

Overeem hasn’t been great either. In fact, he’s been a complete disappointment in the UFC, going 1-2 with losses to Antonio “Bigfoot” Silva and Travis Browne, two men he was highly favored against. Both times, he looked a little too comfortable before his gas tank and/or complacency got the best of him. Against Browne, he was front kicked in the face in embarassing fashion, especially for a former K-1 standout and World Grand Prix champion.

Mir has to survive early on and let Overeem wear himself down. It’s easier said than done, because Mir’s striking has largely failed to evolve. Sure, he has some power, but so does Overeem, and Overeem has much better technique and throws combinations that will dwarf Mir’s own efforts. Furthermore, Mir’s lack of wrestling has become a problem in recent years, as he’s unable to get his fights to the ground with any kind of regularity. Overeem’s strength and solid base will continue that trend.

Mir will fight hard and has earned his place in UFC history, but in a fight which feels a lot like a “loser leaves town” pro wrestling match, Overeem will land some nasty strikes before the midway point- maybe in the clinch, where Mir is too content to hang out and take punishment against bigger fighters- and win the fight.

Prediction: Overeem by KO/TKO

UFC Featherweight ChampionshipJose Aldo vs. Ricardo Lamas

Lamas has really burst onto the scene, compiling a 4-0 UFC record while largely missing out on the fanfare that should usually come with four quality wins. His last three wins (Cub Swanson, Hatsu Hioki, Erik Koch) have come against other fighters who are- or were– entrenched in the title picture, so he’s earned this opportunity.

Lamas brings an all-around game with good wrestling and capable, if not exactly dynamic, standup. However, he’ll face someone who now has a legitimate claim to being the most dominant champion in the organization, with Georges St. Pierre and Anderson Silva no longer holding their titles. Sure, Jon Jones is probably the better choice, but with seven straight successful title defenses under the Zuffa banner, Aldo’s certainly in the conversation.

The problem is that occasionally, Aldo will put on a bit of a stinker. Against Mark Hominick and Frankie Edgar, he clearly won, but still looked less than superhuman while doing it. He seems to lose a bit of his spring in the later rounds, which is not good for a guy who has gone into the championship rounds in four of his last five fights.

However the biggest problem belongs to Lamas, and it’s that he simply doesn’t have the skill set to give Aldo a good run. He’s a competent wrestler, but Aldo’s faced better, and his opportunistic submission game won’t help him against someone the caliber of Aldo, especially since he’ll be unlikely to really get the fight to the mat in the first place. Aldo will end up picking him apart by the middle of the fight with far superior striking.

Prediction: Aldo by KO/TKO

UFC Bantamweight ChampionshipRenan Barao vs. Urijah Faber

Faber has had four title shots in the last five years under the WEC and UFC banners, and lost them all. Of course, those four fights are his only losses during that time, which shows how good of a fighter Faber still is, as if his recent win over Michael McDonald didn’t hammer that point home.

Faber is on quite a surge, having won four in a row since losing to Barao at UFC 149 when they clashed for the then-interim title. In that fight, Barao was too long for Faber, who had a hard time finding his range and resorted to rushing in with strikes which would miss more often than land while eating measured counter-strikes for his efforts. He was also unsuccessful on all of the takedown attempts that he sprinkled throughout the fight. He made it to the final bell, but he clearly lost, just the same.

I wonder what kind of strategy he’ll have for the rematch. Barao will likely stick with a cautious approach, especially if Faber plays right into his hands by getting twitchy and deciding to rush in. I would like to see Faber sit back and make Barao come to him and see what happens, but Faber is too aggressive for that. So we may end up with a fight much like the last one, where Barao is content to just land the better shots whenever Faber rushes in, while picking a few spots to get aggressive himself with more dynamic attacks.

Ultimately, Faber will have a hard time doing what he does best by capitalizing on the wild moments of a fight with opportunistic submissions and takedowns, because Barao probably won’t open up enough himself. You never know, but the smart pick is Barao.

]]>http://www.fightmania.com/mma-editorials/ufc-169-preview/feed/0Entertain yourself at home or work with the UFC 169 weigh-in (Video)http://www.fightmania.com/mma-videos/entertain-home-work-ufc-169-weigh-video/
http://www.fightmania.com/mma-videos/entertain-home-work-ufc-169-weigh-video/#commentsFri, 31 Jan 2014 23:15:23 +0000http://www.fightmania.com/?p=10133There are so many questions surrounding the UFC 169 weigh-ins. Will Alistair Overeem look complacent? Will Frank Mir be fat? Will ranked “flyweight” John Lineker weigh in heavier than Mir? Get all your answers by watching the weigh-ins now! Everything else can wait. I promise.

There are so many questions surrounding the UFC 169 weigh-ins. Will Alistair Overeem look complacent? Will Frank Mir be fat? Will ranked “flyweight” John Lineker weigh in heavier than Mir? Get all your answers by watching the weigh-ins now! Everything else can wait. I promise.