Handicapping the early Astros’ odds-on favorites for 2012

One thing seems for certain in this bleak, 100-loss season. The Astros have no set lineup and spring training may be a free-for-all in the race for roster spots.

The Astros have used 47 players this season and while that isn’t a record (48 in 1995), 16 rookies on the current roster and unsettled situations at virtually every position, a beleagured bullpen and uncertainty in the rotation will lead to an interesting off season. Oh, and there’s that ownership thing hanging in the balance too.

So, what will spring training look like? Who will be in the opening day lineup? Which of the many pitchers will make up the rotation?

At this point, Carlos Lee and J.D. Martinez seem like the only reasonable bets — notice I didn’t say “good” bets — among position players. You’d have to say Brett Myers, Wandy Rodriguez, Bud Norris and J.A. Happ were solid rotation picks — if they report to Kissimmee instead of some other team’s spring training site.

Unlike most seasons past, there are few answers, so here’s a few predictions — read guesses — as this season winds up. Feel free to throw in your (ahem) expert crystal ball prognistications.

Just call this a Monday morning edition of either/or.

BACKUP CATCHER.Humberto Quintero or Carlos Corporan. Jason Castro should get the bulk of the starts in 2012, but coming off a knee injury could require a more regular backup. Q is the better option, but he could cost as much as $1.3 million or so in arbitration, unless the Astros reach agreement outside of the process.

Chip’s prediction: Clearly Quintero has much better upside as a backup and he’s worth the dollars as a safety net. Hopefully, the Astros find a way to bring him back.

SECOND BASE. Jose Altuve or Matt Downs. Obviously the Astros would like to see Altuve as the long-term solution, but he’s slumped in recent weeks (4 hits in last 33 AB) after an impressive start. Downs, on the other hand, has plenty of pop (8 HRs in 202 at bats) and plays a decent second base. Neither player is likely going anywhere. Altuve is a rookie and Downs is under team control through 2016.

Chip’s prediction: Downs starts 2012 as Astros’ second baseman and Altuve gets his first taste of AAA.

THIRD BASE.Chris Johnson and Jimmy Paredes. At this point, this one is a no brainer and it appears the Astros have already made a decision. As long as Paredes continues to hit over .300 and play solid defense, it’s likely his job to lose. But much can change in spring training.

Chip’s prediction: Paredes looks like the real deal, but his 150 major league at bats is a small sample. Moreover, one has to wonder if he should get a shot at shortstop somewhere along the way. Otherwise, he’ll start the season at the Astros’ hot corner.

CENTER FIELD.Jordan Schafer, Jason Bourgeois, J.B. Shuck. The Astros seemingly have answered this question since Schafer was one of the key pieces in the Michael Bourn trade. But with an overall .243 average (.208 against LHP), this one shouldn’t be a lock and has the feel of a potential platoon. Shuck hasn’t had much opportunity to prove himself, but Bourgeois leads the team in stolen bases (28) and currently is hitting .300.

Chip’s prediction: Not sold on Schafer just yet, but the Astros have implied it’s his job to lose. My sentimental favorite: Bourgeois, if he can prove he belongs in the everyday lineup. Otherwise, a Bourgeois/Schafer platoon may be an answer.

RIGHT FIELD.Brian Bogusevic against all comers. The Astros will undoubtedly look to add some pop this winter, hoping to find someone in the Hidalgo-Alou-Pence mold. Bogusevic has started more games in right since August 1 than any other player, so at least Houston may include him in the mix. The job is not necessarily his to lose, though his 4 HR, 15 RBI and .817 OPS in 142 AB has earned him a close look-see in spring training.

Chip’s prediction: Bogusevic will wonder where he stands all winter, but the Astros will search for a retread or another solution with more pop via a trade (Wandy or Myers?). Bogey will start the season as the Astros’ fourth or fifth outfielder. Just a note: I hear Luke Scott may be available as a free agent this winter.

FIRST BASE/LEFT FIELD.Carlos Lee and J.D. Martinez. These two spots seem reasonably secure as both players have established themselves over the past several weeks. Brett Wallace will essentially compete against both players in spring training.

Chip’s prediction: Lee — assuming he’s still in an Astros’ uniform — and Martinez, will be in the lineup on opening day.

FIFTH SPOT IN ROTATION:Jordan Lyles, Henry Sosa, Lucas Harrell, Aneury Rodriguez. This one could be interesting, especially if Myers and Wandy are still in Houston. For the past few years, the Astros have depended on retreads for this spot (Mike Hampton, Russ Ortiz, Nelson Figueroa) and it’s reasonable to assume Houston would bring in other pitchers to compete like this past spring (remember Ryan Rowland-Smith?). The job has to be Lyles’ to lose — Sosa is out of options — but if there’s only one spot up for grabs, this could be fun to watch.

Chip’s prediction: This race could lose a little pzzazz if either Myers or Wandy are moved this winter, leaving two spots up for grabs. If that’s the case, Lyles and Harrell are in the rotation early on. Yes, Harrell is the sleeper pick.

There will possibly be other battles (shortstop, first base if Lee is somehow traded and the bullpen), but there will certainly be few sure things when pitchers and catchers report to Kissimmee next February. How do you handicap the above races as the season draws to a close?