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Births, Marriages, Divorces, and Deaths: Provisional Data for
October 2009

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Technical Notes

Data shown here are provisional and include only events occurring within the United States (50 states and the District of Columbia). Provisional birth, death, and infant death data in this report are based on a combination of counts of events provided by each reporting area and registered vital events processed into National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS) data files. Some of these may not have occurred in the specified month of this report. Monthly provisional birth, death, and infant death data may be updated during the course of a data year. Updates based on registered events will be included in the month the event occurred. However, updates based on counts received from the states may include the event in the month it was processed rather than the month in which it occurred. This may result in a low figure for a given month followed by a high figure for the month(s) in which the delayed records were processed. Once the provisional data year has ended, updates cease. Thus, provisional birth, death, and infant death data may not accurately track either the preliminary or the final number of events registered.

Marriage and divorce data in this report are counts of all events occurring in the state that were received in the registration offices during the 1-month period. Divorce figures include reported annulments. There is considerable variability among the states in the procedures that are used to submit the counts of marriages and divorces to NCHS and in the extent to which the states update their counts of marriages and divorces as new information is received. Therefore, counts vary in their completeness. Marriage and divorce counts, unlike other provisional data, may be updated after the end of a data year if final counts are provided by the state. Readers seeking further information on this should contact NCHS at
births@cdc.gov.

Tables A and B provide monthly, year-to-date, and 12-month ending counts and rates for births, deaths (excluding fetal deaths), and marriages, and 12-month ending rates for divorces. These counts include events occurring in the United States to nonresidents of the United States and differ from the data in preliminary and final reports that are based on place of residence. Birth, death, and infant death figures (death and infant death figures exclude fetal deaths) in
Table 1 for each state are estimates by state of residence. These estimates are derived by applying adjustment ratios to the number of events recorded as occurring in the state during a 1-month period. The adjustment ratios for each data year represent the observed relationship between final state occurrence figures and final state residence figures for the 3 most recent years for which final data were available and are expressed as a single ratio for each state for births and deaths. Monthly state marriage and divorce figures shown in
Table 2 represent the actual count of all events occurring in the state (state of occurrence) and are not adjusted by state of residence.

Until 1998, provisional totals for births, marriages, and divorces for the entire United States included corrections for observed differences between provisional and final figures. These corrections compensated for delays in reporting. Beginning with data for January 1998, these monthly corrections for births, marriages, and divorces have been discontinued. Further information on these changes has been provided in the National Vital Statistics Reports presenting provisional data for January (vol. 48, no. 1), February (vol. 48, no. 2), and March (vol. 48, no. 4) 1999, available from the National Center for Health Statistics website.

NCHS has ceased publishing divorce counts and rates based on provisional data from the combined 50 states because it is no longer statistically feasible to calculate estimates of monthly divorce counts for nonreporting states (California, Georgia, Hawaii, Indiana, Louisiana, and Minnesota). Instead, NCHS publishes only the 12-month divorce rates shown in
Table A, based solely on the combined counts and populations for reporting states and the District of Columbia. Aggregate 1-month, cumulative counts and rates, and 12-month counts for divorces have been discontinued because of their very limited usefulness when based on less than the full complement of states. Monthly marriage and divorce counts as reported by each state will continue to be shown in
Table 2.

In 2006, in the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina, Louisiana temporarily suspended collection of marriage counts (Louisiana does not provide NCHS with divorce counts; see previous paragraph). The 12-month ending marriage rate shown in
Table A for 2007, which is computed based on marriages that occurred in 2006, excludes Louisiana data; the population for this rate also excludes Louisiana. Louisiana reinstated the collection of marriage counts in 2007.

Population estimates used for computing rates originate from the U.S. Census Bureau and are based on the 2000 census. All population estimates used for a single data year are based on population estimates of the same vintage (that is, the same reference year). Changes in rates between years in part reflect differences between vintages of the population estimates. Monthly population estimates may fluctuate from month to month even among estimates of the same vintage. This is especially true for population subgroups (e.g., females 15-44). This monthly variability in population estimates will be reflected in population based rates. Monthly rates are based on populations estimated for the specific month. Year-to-date rates are averages of monthly rates that have been weighted by the number of days in the corresponding months. Rates for 12-month periods are the sum of events for the period per population estimated at the midpoint of the period. Populations have been estimated by NCHS for the 12-month divorce rates based on the 44 reporting states and the District of Columbia. Monthly infant mortality rates are based on relatively few events and are highly variable. As a result, NCHS has discontinued publishing provisional monthly state specific infant mortality rates. National monthly infant mortality rates will continue to be available in
Tables A and B.

Tables

Table A

Table A1. Provisional vital statistics for the
United States, October 2009

[Rates for infant deaths are deaths under 1 year per 1,000 live births; fertility rates are live births per 1,000 women aged 15-44 years; all other rates are per 1,000 total population. National data are based on events occurring in the United States, regardless of place of residence. Data are subject to monthly reporting variation. See "Technical Notes"]

[Rates for infant deaths are deaths under 1 year per 1,000 live births; fertility rates are live births per 1,000 women aged 15-44 years; all other rates are per 1,000 total population. National data are based on events occurring in the United States, regardless of place of residence. Data are subject to monthly reporting variation. See "Technical Notes"]

Table A3. Provisional vital statistics for the United States,
12 months ending with October 2009

[Rates for infant deaths are deaths under 1 year per 1,000 live births; fertility rates are live births per 1,000 women aged 15-44 years; all other rates are per 1,000 total population. National data are based on events occurring in the United States, regardless of place of residence. Data are subject to monthly reporting variation. See "Technical Notes"]

Item

12 months ending with October 2009 (Number)

12 months ending with October 2008 (Number)

12 months ending with October2009 (Rate)

12 months ending with October 2008 (Rate)

12 months ending with October 2007 (Rate)

Live births

4,148,000

4,280,000

13.5

14.1

14.3

Fertility rate

…

…

67.1

68.9

69.2

Deaths

2,422,000

2,453,000

7.9

8.1

8.0

Infant deaths

26,600

28,000

6.4

6.5

6.6

Natural increase

1,726,000

1,827,000

5.6

6.0

6.3

Marriages1

2,071,000

2,164,000

6.8

7.1

7.3

Divorces2

---

---

3.4

3.5

3.6

Population base (in millions)

…

…

306.3

304.0

301.7

... Category not applicable.

--- Data not available.

1 The 12-month ending marriage figures for 2007 excludes data for Louisiana. The population for this marriage rate also excludes Louisiana.