Time’s up for the Yes2Rail blog, which I launched on June 30, 2008 as a paid consultant on Honolulu's elevated rail project. Yes2Rail’s August 13, 2012 post was its last following the author's move to Sacramento, CA. You’re invited to read four-plus years of information-packed entries, many of which are linked at our “aggregation site.” Look for the paragraph with red copy in the right-hand column, below. Mahalo for all the positive comments Yes2Rail received since its start.

The ever-higher cost of driving one’s own car is a leading reason why drivers become transit riders. Another is convenience. This powerful combination plays out everywhere rail systems are built, and it’ll happen here, too.

The cost of driving a car in Honolulu is near record levels this April Fool’s weekend, and that’s no laughing matter. Today’s average price for a gallon of unleaded regular gas is $4.469, up a tenth of a penny from yesterday. The all-time record price of $4.483 was set May 8, 2011 and could be eclipsed early this week.

Statewide, the average reached a record price of $4.597 yesterday and dipped a tenth of a penny today, according to the AAA Fuel Gauge Report. As usual, Hawaii leads the nation; Alaska ($4.354) falls short by nearly a quarter-dollar, followed by California ($4.311). The closest any California metro area comes to Honolulu’s price is Santa Barbara-Santa Maria-Lompoc ($4.391).

Transit Savings Add Up

The American Public Transit Association (APTA) keeps close watch on how much an individual can save by choosing to ride public transit instead of driving a car. A two-person Honolulu household that gets by with one less car and uses a monthly pass for TheBus instead can save $11,573 annually based on the local gas price and the cost of an unreserved parking space downtown.

That figure was calculated on the March 26th gas price, which was nearly a nickel less than its current price, so annual savings recalculated today would be even higher.

These calculations are relevant to future Honolulu rail ridership for obvious reasons. By the end of this decade when the project is fully operational along its 20-mile length between East Kapolei and Ala Moana Center, the cost of operating a private car almost certainly will be considerably higher than today.

Energy's Future

The global demand for oil and its products is increasing at a rate that surely will exceed the supply by 2020, a scenario that’s been studied closely for years by institutions big and small, obvious and not so obvious.

One of the latter is Tompkins County, New York, whose county seat is Ithica. A group called TCLocal has undertaken the massive task of anticipating what it calls “energy descent – a radical reduction in our use of energy” – and what it will mean to their community.

One of TCLocal’s reports is exceptionally relevant to the City and County of Honolulu and its citizens, since we’re already paying the highest gas prices and electricity rates in the country. Spikes in future energy prices could severely impact us and our tourism industry, the engine of the islands’ economy.

A TCLocal publication titled Outlook for Liquid Fuels, 2010-2020 is recommended reading here in Honolulu. One of its references is a Kuwait University report with this prediction: “World oil reserves are being depleted at an annual rate of 2.1%.... World production is estimated to peak in 2014.”

The Outlook notes that the United States Joint Command (military) included a similar prediction in its Joint Operating Environment 2010 report: “By 2012, surplus oil production capacity could entirely disappear, and as early as 2015, this shortfall in output could reach nearly 10 MBD (million barrels per day).”

Click for larger view.

Sobering Up

The author ends his long and detailed Outlook report with three observations:

• The first half of the decade (2010-2015) looks better than the second half (2016-2020). If you have any major projects in mind, this might be a good time to get going. In particular, this would be a good time to make infrastructure improvements, establish a graden, and move closer to work (or arrange to work closer to home).

• The developments listed above (in the TCLocal report) as possible by 2020 are virtually certain by 2030. The descent doesn’t stop until we’ve achieved a state of equilibrium with a much lower level of resource exploitation. That transition can be easier or harder depending on how we approach it. Hawaii’s “green revolution” in renewable energy development is reducing our dependency on imported fuel.

• A lot of these developments can be prepared for. And that is the purpose of TCLocal: to begin to plan for the future looming on the near horizon.

Need we say it? Development of the Honolulu rail project throughout this decade anticipates what our long-distance neighbors in Tompkins County, NY are calling the global energy descent. Energy prices in Hawaii that already are the highest in the country will continue to lead them for the foreseeable future. That’s one of the downsides of Hawaii’s geographical isolation.

Public transit reduces energy consumption for the population as a whole and transportation expenses individually. Honolulu rail transit will provide fast, frequent, reliable and safe transportation through our city and also will be the logical choice of scores of thousands of Honolulu residents as they confront energy’s descent.

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This Isn't Political

Yes2Rail is a blog about the Honolulu rail transit project, which has become the key issue in this year’s mayoral race. We comment on the candidates’ plans to address Oahu’s growing congestion problem and whether those plans could meet the need as well as elevated rail can and will. That’s not the same as criticizing the candidates, and we urge our readers to recognize the difference.

Another red-light runner meets Denver at-grade train, 6.13.12

Honolulu rail will be elevated, with zero possibility for accidents like those shown in this column in cities with at-grade systems. Visit our "aggregation site" for much more on why elevated rail is the only reasonable way to build Honolulu rail.

What riding the train will avoid

Bus Accident Aftermath on H-1

'Black Tuesday'--9/5/06 Crash Produced Nightmare Commute

Typical H-1 Traffic

About Me

After five years of active-duty service as an Army officer with duty stations in West Berlin and South Vietnam, reported and edited for newspapers and broadcast stations (including all-news radio) in Philadelphia, Chicago, Los Angeles and Honolulu. Covered Honolulu city government for the Honolulu Advertiser and KGMB-TV. Served on Congressman Cec Heftel's staff in Honolulu and Washington, then managed corporate communications and was Hawaiian Electric Company's spokesman for nearly a decade. A communications consultant for 19 years before moving to California in 2012. Launched, produced and hosted Hawaii Public Radio's "live" weekly "Energy Futures" public affairs program in 2009-10. Authored books on The National Memorial Cemetery of the Pacific ("Punchbowl" 1982) and on the decline of standard grammar in business and society ("Me and Him Are Killing English!" 2007). Now an information officer with the California Department of Water Resources.