"One of the hardest things to get right is that one line where you describe, 'The state of our union is — blank,' and how you fill in that blank," Donald A. Baer, a former speechwriter for Bill Clinton, told The New York Times this weekend. This is false. We already know how President Obama will describe the state of our union in his State of the Union address Tuesday: strong. Baer must not have listened to his boss's speeches that he wrote because it was Clinton who codified the presidential tradition of saying simply, "The state of our union is strong" in every single State of the Union speech. By 2003, The Atlantic's James Fallows pointed out that the build up to the-state-of-our-union-is-strong moment was as predictable but as crowd-pleasing as the Terminator's "I'll be back." George W. Bush and Barack Obama may not agree on much, but neither has wavered from the tradition, daring only to vary the phrase by dabbling in tense changes or superlatives.

You can see the tradition evolve. A straight-up "the state of our union is [blank]" was rare; Lyndon Johnson used all kinds of flowery language. Presidents would make statements that now look meek-- "stronger than a year ago" -- or they were conditional -- the union will be strong if we follow my agenda. By Richard Nixon, whose failure to say "the state of our union is [something good]" was a sign of political trouble, or in Jimmy Carter's case, a sign of economic hardship. Moody reflections often preceded presidents' losing reelection. By the time of George W. Bush's 2002 speech, no act or terrorism or recession could prevent the union from being declared strong. Here's how the state of the union became a cliché.

Lyndon Johnson, 1964: If we fail... then history will rightfully judge us harshly. But if we succeed, if we can achieve these goals by forging in this country a greater sense of union, then, and only then, can we take full satisfaction in the State of the Union."

Johnson, 1966: "This is the State of the Union," Johnson said, listing a bunch of stuff. His speech was a bit of a downer: "Yet, finally, war is always the same... to know war is to know that there is still madness in this world."

Carter, 1980: "This last few months has not been an easy time for any of us. As we meet tonight, it has never been more clear that the state of our Union depends on the state of the world. And tonight, as throughout our own generation, freedom and peace in the world depend on the state of our Union." But was the state of our union good? Carter did not say. He lost to Reagan that fall.

Bush, 1992: "Moods come and go, but greatness endures. Ours does. And maybe for a moment it's good to remember what, in the dailiness of our lives, we forget: We are still and ever the freest nation on Earth, the kindest nation on Earth, the strongest nation on Earth." Bush lost to Bill Clinton that fall.

Obama, 2011: "And tonight more than two centuries later, it's because of our people that our future is hopeful, our journey goes forward, and the state of our Union is strong."

Obama, 2012: "The state of our Union is getting stronger... As long as we are joined in common purpose, as long as we maintain our common resolve, our journey moves forward, and our future is hopeful, and the state of our Union will always be strong." (For the election year, Obama doubled up on strength.)

(Note: We haven't included the faux State of the Union speeches new presidents give after their first election. All photos via Associated Press.)

This article is from the archive of our partner The Wire.

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