Passing Game Thoughts: We all know
how good the Saints’ passing attack is, and last week against
Detroit just added to it. Drew Brees threw for 466 yards and three
touchdowns against the Lions, with wideouts Marques Colston and
Robert Meachem each gaining over 110 yards, and Meachem, Devery
Henderson and Jimmy Graham each catching touchdown passes. Graham
was targeted a team-high 11 times, and their attack is so diversified
that fullback Jed Collins had two catches for 20 yards, and running
backs Pierre Thomas and Darren Sproles combined for 89 yards on
10 receptions. But the 49ers have a much better defense against
the pass than Detroit, and the game is being played outside, so
things shouldn’t look quite so easy this week.

San Francisco’s pass defense was 16th in the NFL, but a
look at the numbers surrounding their ability to shut down their
opponent’s air attack indicates it was better than that.
The 49ers were eighth in touchdown throws given up, eighth in
opponents’ completion percentage, tied for seventh in sacks,
fifth in quarterback rating allowed and tied for second in interceptions.
In their final seven games of the season, just two quarterbacks
threw for at least 230 yards, and only one had multiple touchdown
passes. They held pass catchers in check as well, because in their
final 10 games of the season, only four wide receivers had at
least 80 receiving yards, and only a pair of tight ends gained
at least 65 yards against them all year.

Running Game Thoughts: New Orleans continues to run the ball effectively
with their triumvirate of Chris Ivory, Pierre Thomas and Darren
Sproles. We mentioned that Thomas and Sproles had a total of 10
catches for 89 yards, and the duo added 117 yards and three touchdowns
(two by Sproles) on a combined 18 carries. Ivory got the bulk
of the work, however, with 13 carries, picking up 47 yards in
the process. They’ll be challenged in a huge way this week
against the 49ers, because no team in the league was as ferocious
against the run as they were.

The 49ers had the NFL’s premier run defense this season.
They led the league in run defense (allowing 246 fewer yards than
the Ravens, who were number two), rushing touchdowns allowed (just
three, and two came in Week 17), and yards per carry allowed (3.5).
Only two running backs managed to gain at least 65 yards when
facing the Niners – Marshawn Lynch in Week 16 (107 yards)
and Steven Jackson in Week 17 (76 yards).

Passing Game Thoughts: The 49ers
and quarterback Alex Smith had one of the league’s weaker
passing attacks. The team was 29th in the league in passing offense,
and tied for 24th in touchdown throws. Smith’s 3,144 passing
yards was 19th among NFL quarterbacks, and his 17 touchdowns were
17th at his position. He threw for at least 215 yards in just
four games, and had multiple touchdowns in only five games. Their
leading receiver was Michael Crabtree, but he was 34th in the
league with 874 yards on 74 catches (but only four touchdowns),
while tight end Vernon Davis was 42nd in the NFL with 792 yards
on 67 catches with six touchdowns. Davis has the athleticism and
natural ability to make defenses pay, but the Niners will have
to make concerted efforts to get him the ball.

We gave you all the numbers from the Saints pass defense last
week – 30th against the pass, 16th in touchdown throws allowed
and ninth in opponents’ completion percentage. Not great
numbers, but somewhat expected considering that teams had no choice
but to go pass-heavy to keep pace with New Orleans’ offense.
Subsequently, the league’s best receivers had great games
against them throughout the season, as Andre Johnson, Victor Cruz,
Roddy White and Julio Jones each had at least 120 receiving yards
against them in the regular season. Calvin Johnson continued that
trend last week with 211 receiving yards and a pair of scores.
Crabtree is a quality wideout, but isn’t in the elite category
so while he may have some success, it’s unlikely to be overwhelming.

Running Game Thoughts: San Francisco was eighth in the NFL in
rushing offense, and tied for 12th in rushing scores. Running
back Frank Gore is the team’s main cog in that area, and
was sixth in the league with 1,211 rushing yards while scoring
eight times. However, after running for 100 or more yards five
times in the season’s first eight games, Gore failed to
reach 90 yards even once in the second half of the season, which
is something for fantasy owners thinking of using him to be wary
of.

Like we said, we’ve already gone over New Orleans’
defensive numbers last week, but as a reminder, they were 12th
against the run and 15th in rushing scores given up, but also
allowed 5.0 yards per carry, which was 30th in the NFL. They only
gave up 32 rushing yards to Detroit last week, but the Lions only
called eight running plays, so there isn’t much to decipher
there. Clearly, if the 49ers make Frank Gore a focus, as everyone
expects they will, he should have a solid game.

Passing Game Thoughts: The last time Tim Tebow faced the New England
Patriots (Week 15), it started a stretch of three consecutive
losses for the Broncos. In that game, he completed only 11 of
22 passes for 194 yards and did not throw for a TD against the
worst pass defense in the NFL. He was able to rush for 93 yards
and 2 TDs however. The three game stretch to finish the season
had some people questioning whether or not he could keep his starting
gig for next season. His opening round playoff victory over the
Steelers put those doubts to rest however. Tebow looked sharp
despite completing less than 50% of his passes - when he did connect
it was at a 31.6 yards per completion clip. It was also a breakout
game for fellow 2010 first round pick Demaryius Thomas. The Tebow
/ Thomas combination went for 204 yards on the day, including
an 80-yard pass and catch in Overtime for the game winning TD.
Maybe Josh McDaniels wasn’t the idiot that many Denver and
NFL fans thought he was. The Broncos had a great game plan to
counter the Pittsburgh defense’s propensity to creep 8-9
players into the box, including both safeties Troy Polamalu and
Ryan Mundy. While that was effective to a large extent for Pittsburgh,
it left Thomas often in single coverage with Ike Taylor (and no
safety help) and that matchup was exploited into the aforementioned
big day.

The Patriots will obviously study the film from that game and
attempt to not let the same results occur against them. However
that is easier said then done, when you consider that the Patriots
are a much worse defense than the Steelers. They’re not
just poor in comparison to the Steelers either. They were poor
compared to everyone else, as they were the worst pass defense
in the NFL. The Patriots do not have anyone to matchup with the
6’ 3”, 4.3, 40-yard dash running Thomas and can not
generate any consistent pass rush to harass Tebow. What the Patriots
do have going for them is the fact that Bill Belichick has been
able to confuse much more experienced QBs than Tebow in big games
before. It will take another great game plan for the Patriots
to keep the Broncos in check.

Running Game Thoughts: The Patriots are much better at stopping
the run than the pass, but they aren’t an imposing run defense
by any means. The Broncos were able to run for 252 yards against
them in the last meeting, led by the previously mentioned 93 yards
from Tim Tebow. Willis McGahee was able to gain 70 yards on only
7 carries and even the mediocre Lance Ball was able to gain 64
yards and a TD. Like the Steelers did last week the Patriots will
need to keep at least eight men close to the line of scrimmage
to limit the ability of Tebow to get outside and help stop the
option off the edge. The Broncos can try and counter that with
more power runs using McGahee between the tackles or by Timmy
once again completing big passes downfield. Many people will be
expecting the Broncos miracle season to come to an end in Foxboro
this Sunday, but there are many scenarios that I can see where
they could survive for yet another week.

Passing Game Thoughts: When the two teams met less than a month
ago, the Denver defense game planned to take the Patriots’
most consistent weapons, Wes Welker and TE Rob Gronkowski, out
of the game for Tom Brady. While the pair saw constant double
teams, it was the Pats’ other second year TE, Aaron Hernandez,
who had the chance to shine having his best game of the season
- 9 catches, 129 yards and a touchdown. The Broncos should have
learned in that game that Tom Brady is able to take what the defense
gives him and the Pats are loaded at the skill positions despite
most people thinking otherwise. Chad Ochocinco even got into the
action opening up the New England scoring with a 33-yard TD reception
down the sideline. Tom Brady when given time will find the open
man, so it will be interesting to see if Denver uses the same
strategy that allowed Tom Brady to throw for 320 yards and 2 TDs
in their first meeting.

The Broncos will need to pressure Brady like they did Ben Roethlisberger
last week. Brady is not nearly as mobile as even the injured Big
Ben, but he is able to slide around and step up into the pocket
to avoid the rush. During the Patriots last two home playoff games,
both losses, Brady struggled due to constantly being under pressure.
Rookie LB/DE Von Miller has been a force for much of the season
and could be the disruptive figure the Broncos need. Veteran CB
Champ Bailey is still getting the job done even at his advanced
age. Bailey held Pittsburgh’s Mike Wallace to 26 yards receiving
on three catches last week and was able to help limit the NFL’s
leading receiver Wes Welker to only four catches in Week 15.

Running Game Thoughts: The Patriots have rotated their running
back all season based on their game plan. In Week 15 it was rookie
Steven Ridley who led the way with 65 yards on 11 carries but
it was veterans Danny Woodhead and BenJarvus Green Ellis who scored
on the ground. The end of the season felt like an audition for
rookie Ridley as he started being more and more feature in the
offense and was effective for the most part. Belickick does love
the dependable Green-Ellis though as the guy doesn’t put
the ball on the ground and is one of the better goal-line runners
is the league. Danny Woodhead should get a lot of work on passing
downs. The Patriots though generally run only to keep defenses
honest and that trend should continue with mild weather (for January
at least) expected in Foxboro this weekend.

Denver can be run on and they finished the season ranked 22nd
against the run allowing 126.3 ypg. Belichick is a big fan of
the curveball, so don’t be shocked if the Pats come out
running the ball down the Bronco’s throats. Of course that
would play right into the hands of Denver since they would love
nothing more than to keep the game low scoring and close and see
who really has the more clutch 4th quarter QB.

Passing Game Thoughts: No injuries to speak of for either side
coming in to this game unless of course you count Matt Schaub.
Schaub’s replacement, T.J. Yates, looked poised and confident
in his playoff debut against the Bengals. His actual production
left something to be desired. Yates threw for just 159 yards,
completed only 11 of 20 passes for one touchdown. I suspect the
Texans will need more from Yates to beat the Ravens, but at the
same time this game has the look and feel of a low scoring affair
that could very well be won by the team that simply avoids the
big mistake. The Ravens beat the Texans 29-14 at home in Week
6. The Texans were without WR Andre Johnson in that game. Johnson
caught five balls for 90 yards and a score last week. He will
need to duplicate his performance for the Texans to advance.

The Ravens are 4th in passing defense. The big advantage they
will have is safety Ed Reed versus Yates. Reed is considered by
many to be among the greatest safeties of all-time in large part
because of his ability to play centerfield, read quarterbacks,
and create big turnovers. It will be dangerous for the Texans
to make deep throws on the outside and over the middle to Owen
Daniels. The Texans will avoid this by sticking to conservative
routes, thus having to sustain long drives to score. The Ravens
defense is awfully tough to sustain drives against - advantage
Ravens.

Running Game Thoughts: The heart and soul of the Texans is their
two-headed rushing attack of Arian Foster and Ben Tate. Foster
is the best back in the league over the last two seasons and Houston
does a great job of opening holes with their zone blocking. The
Ravens will be hard pressed to prevent the Texans from getting
outside. The Texans employ a lot of multiple tight end sets but
they also have two big receivers in Andre Johnson and Kevin Walter
that are good blockers for their position. The Ravens are 2nd
in rushing defense so this will be a strength on strength matchup
that will set the tone. The Ravens will need DE’s Terrell
Suggs and Jarrett Johnson to get penetration up field and turn
Foster back inside where Ray Lewis can clean up. Early on the
Ravens will be fresh and have the advantage, but if the Texans
can sustain some drives and stay in the game, the Raven defense
may wear down. This game will come down to whether or not the
Texans defense can keep them in the game. Foster had his way against
the tough Bengal defense to the tune of 153 yards on 24 carries.
Neutral matchup.

Passing Game Thoughts: My reluctance to giving the Ravens a victory
this week is rooted in an utter lack of faith in quarterback Joe
Flacco. Flacco has a lot of talent but every now and then the
guy looks like a deer in the headlights. He has a good arm and
is talented enough to make all the throws when he can get set
in a clean pocket, but he is too stiff to make plays when he has
to move his feet. The Texans pass rush is led by outside linebackers
Connor Barwin and Brooks Reed. The Ravens line is excellent in
the middle but can be inconsistent on the outside with Michael
Oher and Bryant McKinnie. The Ravens have big play ability with
Torrey Smith stretching the field and Anquan Boldin working the
middle but the Texans get excellent coverage from cornerback Jonathan
Joseph. He will have the advantage versus Boldin who has lost
a step. With Boldin limited, the Ravens will need big plays from
the inconsistent Smith and to take advantage of Ray Rice and their
young TE combo of Dennis Pitta and Ed Dickson. It won’t
be easy against the Texans 3rd ranked pass defense.

Running Game Thoughts: These two teams are almost identical.
The Ravens, like the Texans, are completely reliant on their running
back Ray Rice to set the tone. Like Foster, Rice is as do-everything
back that can be a big threat both running and receiving. Both
teams are equally strong at stopping that on defense. One difference
between Rice and Foster is that Rice is quick and hard to find
hidden behind the big trees. The Texans are also very big at linebacker
and will be at a quickness disadvantage. Rice managed 100 yards
in their earlier meeting while Foster was held under 50 yards.

Passing Game Thoughts: Eli Manning has turned into a very, very
good quarterback. I’ve disliked him since he pouted his
way out of San Diego on draft day, so you’ll never know
how difficult it is for me to type those words. My personal feelings
about him aside, Manning turned in the best playoff performance
of his career last week, slicing the bewildered Atlanta defense
for 277 yards and three TDs. Hakeem Nicks and Mario Manningham
were the main targets last week, leaving regular season receiving
leader Victor Cruz with just a couple catches and 28 yards. This
game could be a surprisingly high-scoring affair, so don’t
be surprised if Manning has another solid performance.

I’m in complete amazement that a team can win 15 games
with the league’s worst defense statistically. The Packers
are by far the league’s worst against the pass, which is
insane when you consider the likes of Charles Woodson, Clay Matthews
and B.J. Raji roam the defense. The Packers have given up more
than 400 yards in six of the last seven games, so Manning should
have his way. It will be vital for Green Bay to put heat on Manning.
If not, the Packers will find themselves in a high-scoring game,
and that’s not a good thing when you consider how porous
the defense had been.

Running Game Thoughts: Both Ahmad Bradshaw and Brandon Jacobs
had 14 carries last week, and each looked good. That’s a
far cry from how they performed during the season, as they were
the main components that fueled the league’s worst rushing
team. With the apparent weakness of Green Bay’s defense,
it’s almost a given that New York’s running game will
take a back seat to the much more explosive Giants passing game.
Bradshaw and Jacobs are both capable of getting a short TD run
to salvage an otherwise pedestrian game, but don’t expect
much else from this duo.

Green Bay actually started the season as one of the top-3 rush
defenses in the league, giving up an average of 76 yards on the
ground through the first five games. Teams began exploiting that
part of their defense and they ended the season surrendering 112
yards per game. I think the Giants will put the running game on
the shelf and attack the Packers where they’re most vulnerable—through
the air.

Passing Game Thoughts: A topic was started on the FFToday Board
that raised the question of whether or not Aaron Rodgers is a
system QB based on Matt Flynn’s success against Detroit
in week 17. Really? First of all, the Lions showed what they are
against New Orleans; secondly, Rodgers is just hitting his stride
as a QB and I believe the best is yet to come. This playoff will
be a defining moment for him and will secure his spot as the second-best
QB in the league behind Tom Brady. He gets Greg Jennings back
from his minor knee injury; couple that return with an emerging
Jordy Nelson and you have the makings of one of the best receiving
tandems in the league. Rodgers will have his way with New York’s
secondary.

Although the Giants pass defense hasn’t been as questionable
as the Packers, New York still fields the 29th-ranked pass defense
in the league. When these two teams met in week 13, the Giants
allowed Rodgers to roll for 369 yards and four TDs. New York’s
secondary limited the Falcons to next to nothing last week, but
it will be a different scenario this week in every sense of the
word.

Running Game Thoughts: When your starting QB has as many rushing
TDs as your top two RBs, you know your running game has work to
do. Rodgers’ three rushing TDs match Ryan Grants’
two TDs and James Starks’ one. Don’t get it twisted,
though. The Packers could care less how productive their RBs are
when it comes to scoring. They realize this offense is fueled
by Rodgers and his ability to take advantage of susceptible defenses
such as the Giants. Grant and Starks will be complementary pieces
in this game and each game after it. Keep an eye on Starks availability,
as he’s still trying to overcome a knee issue.

Including the regular season’s last game against Dallas
and the Wildcard contest against Atlanta, the Giants have only
surrendered 113 total yards on the ground in their last two games.
The Giants have had their moments this season when teams ran wild
on them—New Orleans 205 yards on the ground in week 12 comes
to mind—just don’t expect Green Bay to be another
one. This game will be won through the air for both teams.