That's at least five players that have or will (Irving and Wall) change a teams fortune. That is my point. It would be nice to be one of those teams.

Wall and Irving are still unknowns.

Washington finsihed tied for 4th worst the year they got Wall and got lucky in the draft. However, since drafting Wall the year they had 26 wins, they won 23 games and this year 20 games (albeit in a short season but still 4th worst and a lower winning percentage than the year he was drafted). This ties in to a big part of my argument that more is needed than high draft picks - do they help? Hell yes. Are they the be all and end all? Nope. You can still get special players anywhere in the draft but there is no argument that the higher the pick the more probability due to larger selection.

I have no argument with Irving. He is going to be special if he is not injured. But more than Irving, Cleveland has a good coach and good ownership..... oh yeah, and they got lucky going from 8 to 1 with the Clippers pick. They won 2 more games this year in 16 less games and were knocking on the playoff door until injuries set in.

Gorlitzer wrote:

You talk about management... I agree that management is the key to a successful franchise. But we have to realize that this team cannot attract a free agent unless there is already something special happening here. Drafting a superstar is that something special.

I am curious to see what happens to Indiana next year. They are well managed (mostly) and don't have a super star, and they will have a ton of cap space. Seeing who they are able to land in the FA market should be a harbinger for the Raps.

That something special requires luck.

My issue here is not debating the merits of the draft. No doubt the best way to get a superstar is through the draft. Anyone arguing that is ridiculously delusional. My issue is the draft requires a great deal of luck in terms of draft positioning and all the intangibles like teammates, coach, situation, attitude, and work ethic that it takes to make a talented player great.

Yes Matt we do need other pieces but look at Chicago. They have amazing pieces, a winning culture, deep bench, a great coach but how many of you think they're going to win it all now that Rose is out with a torn ACL. This is exactly my point!

We have good pieces? As Arsenalist mentions so beautifully in his piece "It all fell in line with the plan", BC is hoping that mediocre talent becomes above average talent. The key words is "hoping" and "mediocre". Are these your key pieces that you mention we need to win a championship?

So how are we going to get that superstar? Buy him? Nope, why would they choose TO when they're going to get max where ever they go. Trade for him? Who's going to trade us their superstar? Hope that as we're in the mid range of the win/loss column and some how we luck out in the lottery? I guess that our only chance the way we're going. Sigh~

Prove me wrong Chicago... so I can have a glimmer of hope that we too can win the championship if the stars align perfectly.

Yes Matt we do need other pieces but look at Chicago. They have amazing pieces, a winning culture, deep bench, a great coach but how many of you think they're going to win it all now that Rose is out with a torn ACL. This is exactly my point!

We have good pieces? As Arsenalist mentions so beautifully in his piece "It all fell in line with the plan", BC is hoping that mediocre talent becomes above average talent. The key words is "hoping" and "mediocre". Are these your key pieces that you mention we need to win a championship?

So how are we going to get that superstar? Buy him? Nope, why would they choose TO when they're going to get max where ever they go. Trade for him? Who's going to trade us their superstar? Hope that as we're in the mid range of the win/loss column and some how we luck out in the lottery? I guess that our only chance the way we're going. Sigh~

Prove me wrong Chicago... so I can have a glimmer of hope that we too can win the championship if the stars align perfectly.

Am I the only one thinking JV could (not necessarily will but clearly could) be that superstar ?

Am I the only one thinking JV could (not necessarily will but clearly could) be that superstar ?

Yes you are haha.. sorry

As much of a dominant big man you are you always need a go to clutch scorer. Even Shaq needed the likes of a Kobe or Wade. And as much as we compare Jonas to Duncan, hoping Jonas is as good as Duncan is really wishful thinking and even still, Duncan had the Admiral and then Parker and Gino.

Now SA is team that built properly with a bit of luck (Duncan) and great drafting. From my knowledge they didnt even go into the luxury tax during their championship years.

Yes Matt we do need other pieces but look at Chicago. They have amazing pieces, a winning culture, deep bench, a great coach but how many of you think they're going to win it all now that Rose is out with a torn ACL. This is exactly my point!

We have good pieces? As Arsenalist mentions so beautifully in his piece "It all fell in line with the plan", BC is hoping that mediocre talent becomes above average talent. The key words is "hoping" and "mediocre". Are these your key pieces that you mention we need to win a championship?

So how are we going to get that superstar? Buy him? Nope, why would they choose TO when they're going to get max where ever they go. Trade for him? Who's going to trade us their superstar? Hope that as we're in the mid range of the win/loss column and some how we luck out in the lottery? I guess that our only chance the way we're going. Sigh~

Prove me wrong Chicago... so I can have a glimmer of hope that we too can win the championship if the stars align perfectly.

Chicago finished first this year in the league with their star missing 27 games. We'll see what happens in the playoffs now. They are extremely well coached and have a lot of good pieces. Actually that sounds a familiar. They were a mediocre, just outside the playoffs team before hitting lottery luck and going from 9th to 1st.

Chicago is not built solely around Rose. They are a deep team. This again comes back to the issue you need much more than a superstar. Superstars help but they don't win on their own. You need a solid coaching staff and talented players around them.

Arse is a card carrying member of the "BC needs to leave" Club so anything he says should be taken with a grain of salt - just like anything I say should be taken with a grain of salt because I am the other end of the spectrum. I would like to think we are both objective though. Anyways, I don't think any of us can say exactly what BC is thinking. None of us are in his head. From what he said though he is rearing to go and changes are on the way. This is another issue I have with these arguments: none of us know where the Raptors are going to pick and none of us are privy to the types of trades/draft picks/free agent signings that could be on the horizon.

Do the Raptors have key pieces needed to win a championship? Sure. I think there are guys that could help a championship team. Are they the main guys? No. Starters? Probably not.

How many times do I have to say the way to get a superstar is lottery luck? That is the MAGICAL ANSWER.

Chicago does need the stars to align perfectly - just like every other team who wins. You need solid coaching, talent, complimentary talent to the real talent, and no injuries to the real talent.

Your whole argument comes down to we don't have a superstar so we're screwed. I couldn't disagree more. Getting a superstar is one piece of the puzzle - ask Cleveland..... or Orlando for that matter.

Chicago finished first this year in the league with their star missing 27 games. We'll see what happens in the playoffs now. They are extremely well coached and have a lot of good pieces. Actually that sounds a familiar. They were a mediocre, just outside the playoffs team before hitting lottery luck and going from 9th to 1st.

Chicago is not built solely around Rose. They are a deep team. This again comes back to the issue you need much more than a superstar. Superstars help but they don't win on their own. You need a solid coaching staff and talented players around them.

Arse is a card carrying member of the "BC needs to leave" Club so anything he says should be taken with a grain of salt - just like anything I say should be taken with a grain of salt because I am the other end of the spectrum. I would like to think we are both objective though. Anyways, I don't think any of us can say exactly what BC is thinking. None of us are in his head. From what he said though he is rearing to go and changes are on the way. This is another issue I have with these arguments: none of us know where the Raptors are going to pick and none of us are privy to the types of trades/draft picks/free agent signings that could be on the horizon.

Do the Raptors have key pieces needed to win a championship? Sure. I think there are guys that could help a championship team. Are they the main guys? No. Starters? Probably not.

How many times do I have to say the way to get a superstar is lottery luck? That is the MAGICAL ANSWER.

Chicago does need the stars to align perfectly - just like every other team who wins. You need solid coaching, talent, complimentary talent to the real talent, and no injuries to the real talent.

Your whole argument comes down to we don't have a superstar so we're screwed. I couldn't disagree more. Getting a superstar is one piece of the puzzle - ask Cleveland..... or Orlando for that matter.

We're going back and forth on this but I agree that you need other pieces but disagree on the superstar aspect. Sure you can draft really well and pick up a star eg. Arenas but a true superstar doesn't just appear in the middle or end of the draft. Howard, Duncan, Durant, Rose, Wade, Lebron, CP3, Griffin etc etc were destined to be stars before they came into the NBA. With today's scouts you are not going to end up having a superstar fall in your lap and the mid, end of the draft. Sure, the number one pick is not a guarantee for a superstar and sometimes you get lucky in the years that you draft like the Lebron draft but I say again, superstars aren't found mid-late 1st round. This is not the KG Kobe era where hs kids were an unknown. Even Gino, Parkers will get spotted now due to advanced international scouting and bball being an international game.

Again, the only team that seemed to defy that logic was that Billups' Detroit team. But that team had players who were the best in the league at what they do: Billups - crunch time, Rip - spot up shooter, Tyshaun - defense and scoring, Ben - shot blocker, Rasheed - scoring and defense. That was an amazing team.

Other than that - EVERY team that won in recent history had at least one superstar and near superstars to compliment them.

End of argument!

PS - As amazing as Chicago team is even without Rose, they don't have a prayer in winning the championship without Rose. Leagues best record - sure, championship - no way jose. Book it~

We're going back and forth on this but I agree that you need other pieces but disagree on the superstar aspect. Sure you can draft really well and pick up a star eg. Arenas but a true superstar doesn't just appear in the middle or end of the draft. Howard, Duncan, Durant, Rose, Wade, Lebron, CP3, Griffin etc etc were destined to be stars before they came into the NBA. With today's scouts you are not going to end up having a superstar fall in your lap and the mid, end of the draft. Sure, the number one pick is not a guarantee for a superstar and sometimes you get lucky in the years that you draft like the Lebron draft but I say again, superstars aren't found mid-late 1st round. This is not the KG Kobe era where hs kids were an unknown. Even Gino, Parkers will get spotted now due to advanced international scouting and bball being an international game.

Again, the only team that seemed to defy that logic was that Billups' Detroit team. But that team had players who were the best in the league at what they do: Billups - crunch time, Rip - spot up shooter, Tyshaun - defense and scoring, Ben - shot blocker, Rasheed - scoring and defense. That was an amazing team.

Other than that - EVERY team that won in recent history had at least one superstar and near superstars to compliment them.

End of argument!

PS - As amazing as Chicago team is even without Rose, they don't have a prayer in winning the championship without Rose. Leagues best record - sure, championship - no way jose. Book it~

This was koncept's original post:

Very typical of a Toronto team - not good enough to make playoffs, never shitty enough to get good draft picks. We're doomed everyone, keep hoping but we'll be stuck without a properly built team for the rest of time.

The argument is: "...the Raptors are not good enough to make the playoffs, never shitty enough to get a good draft pick. We're doomed everyone, keep hoping but we'll be stuck without a properly built team for the rest of time."

The Raptors, in my opinion, are not doomed. Plain and simple. Getting high draft picks year after year guarantees nothing as I have shown. Superstar players are available outside the top 3 players. The list you provided was evident of this - but then of course the argument changed. We have no idea who the Raptors will draft this year yet nor what their potential will be and we have no idea what JV's potential will be - JV could be the superstar but no one knows that without the benefit of hindsight and time. As of now anyone saying he is definitely not the superstar is talking out their ass - as is anyone saying he will be. All this talk about superstar and LeBron James.... hmmmm, how many championships has he won? Zero. And that is also with a year of teaming with an all-star in Bosh and another franchise talent in Wade. So I guess now the Raptors need 2 franchise players and an all-star? And if Championships is the only thing that matters, Miami is a failure too? Yet a team built around a 9th overall draft pick who was 32 before he won a championship beat the might LBJ and Dwane Wade. Further proof that you don't need a top draft pick to gain a championship and further proof that the most talented players do not automatically win.

The whole problem with this thread is the extreme unfounded negativity. There are lots of positives in Raptor-land. The fact is 2 wins separated Toronto from where they are and where people wanted them to be in a 66 game season. So to add to the problem of extreme unfounded negativity we also have extreme overreaction. What happens if the Raptors get some lottery luck and pick top 3? All of a sudden things are perfect? The Raptors are going to automatically win championships? Hardly. Very little will change except the perception among those who think you need a top draft pick to build a winner.

The Detroit example is a good one. While it is the exception to the rule, it shows good coaching and a solid team can overcome 4 hall of famers with 2 in their prime. I would most definitely disagree that the Pistons starting lineup were all the best at what they did. Outside of Ben Wallace that is a gross generalization and sucks the credibility from the argument.

A team like Sacramento or Charlotte has a brutal near and intermediate future.
A team like Milwaukee or Detroit is stuck in mediocrity with very limited flexibility moving forward.

That high school player and international scouting argument is still ridiculous by the way. A statement backed up with no proof other than an opinion is hardly credible. Here are all the high school draft picks from 1995 until 2005:

However, since this thread is about how doomed the Raptors are, I would also point out your argument is also quite specious.

We have no idea:

1) where Toronto will draft in 2012
2) who Toronto drafts in 2012
3) what will be done with the 2 second round picks or who they are used to draft
4) what Toronto does with the $12M in cap space
5) what the Raptors do with the $7.6M TPE
6) what Bargnani shows up next year
7) what becomes of JV
8) what trades could be made
9) what free agents are signed
10) what progress any Raptor player could make next year

There are so many variables and so much flexibility the front office currently has anything is possible.

It comes down to if you see the glass half empty or half full at this point - a matter of perspective.

Come mid-July, things should become more clear and a debate can be had based on more than unbridled optimism or jaded negativity.