Here\’s our live blog of the stock market Friday. We started off with the Empire State index, a weak report from Nordstrom, and a bounce in Exxon Mobil — and then went through to the Zulily IPO, Twitter options and the weekly numbers.

Good morning. Well, a rush of data just hit the wire. The one with the most reflection on recent activity is the November Empire State index. It turned negative, the first negative reading since May. Stock futures are holding onto gains. Dow index futures are up 27 points, S&P 500 futures are up 3 and Nasdaq 100 futures are up around 4.

Since Thursday evening we’ve been wading through 13fs, the securities filings big money managers make about their significant stakes 45 days after the end of the quarter.

Our favorite: George Soros. Not only did he load up on Microsoft Corp. and FedEx Corp., but he cut down on a put position, basically a hedging position, on the S&P 500 tracker SPY. The ETF is edging higher pre-market, by the way.

This could be a hot IPO – or it could be a big disappointment like Chegg earlier this week. Zulily will start trading on the Nadaq under the ticker “ZU” later today. Late Thursday it raised its IPO price to $22, above an earlier range of $18 o $20. IPO Boutique had flagged strong demand earlier this week.

A minute to the opening bell and it looks like a mildly higher opening. Dow futures are up 28 points. Exxon may get a pop after Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway disclosed a stake. It’s up about 1% premarket.

It’s very important to note with Fannie & Freddie — you, the common shareholder, are entitled to zero profits. Nada. Zilch. All (except for operating costs) goes to the U.S. taxpayer via the Treasury Department.

So, in buying Fannie & Freddie, you’re betting that either a) Congress will change current law when showing no inclination to allow a return into private hands or b) a court will disallow a previous move to send profits to Treasury.

(You’re also betting C, that profits will continue and the firm won’t fall into a 2008-style collapse.)

Might be a bit of a tax boost to Equinix and Iron Mountain. Equinix wants to convert into a REIT and is seeking an IRS ruling. Equinix disclosed to SEC that the IRS is actively resuming work on its request. Iron Mountain made a similar disclosure. EQIX +4.2%, IRM +5.6%.

From our Market Snapshot: “We got a glimpse of the future of the Fed under Yellen’s stewardship — and the verdict from markets is that we should expect policy continuity when Yellen officially takes the reins next year,” analysts at Deutsche Bank wrote in a note.

There’s an interesting nugget about China and California wine in a note from KraneShares, which runs some China ETFs and has more in the works.

The KraneShares note says:

“Exports to China from California, America’s largest wine producing region, jumped 20% over a year earlier. China is now the state’s fifth largest export market for wine. Linsey Gallagher of the Wine Institute — a trade group — says the flavor of Californian wine suits Asian cuisine. And the state’s positive image in China is also driving demand. ‘Even in remote parts of China, people know about Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger, Baywatch, the Golden Gate bridge, and it’s always a positive association,’ she said.”

One more point on that nugget from KraneShares: How could there be “always a positive association” with Schwarzenegger? Didn’t everyone read that Joe Queenan column in the WSJ with the headline “Dear Arnold, Even Terminators Retire.” Here’s a link to that column from earlier this month.

Switching over to general market commentary, CMC Markets makes some good points in emailed comments this morning titled “Fed continuity and China reforms boost risk markets.”

CMC’s Colin Ciezynski writes:

“Stock markets in China, Japan and Australia rallied overnight and this positive momentum has carried through into European and North American trading this morning. Bulls have been given a boost by dovish comments this week from Fed Chair nominee Janet Yellen, indicating that she believes the Fed has more work to do in order to strengthen the economy and suggesting that QE may continue for some time to come. Soft Empire manufacturing and industrial production data this morning supports the case for delayed tapering.

The first concrete follow up reform announcement out of China following the Third Plenum meeting related to easing one-child restrictions has also encouraged traders who have started to anticipate again that more reforms may be on the way.”

Record highs have no real meaning and don’t react too much to all the media attention on them, says Jim Kee of South Texas Money Management.

He had a “Kee Points” note out this week with several interesting comments like that one. Here’s a quote:

“Looking long-term, the stock market follows the economy in an upward trend punctuated by macroeconomic shocks. An upward trend implies that reaching “all-time highs” has no real meaning (it happens all the time!), and that’s how I would react to press headlines to the contrary.”

Stocks now have slipped further off their session highs. S&P 500 and Nasdaq both up just about 1 point. Dow still has a healthy gain of about 41 points, boosted by Exxon, American Express, Boeing. McDonald’s and Microsoft are the worst performers among blue chips.

“We see the value of equities vs. bonds as attractive,” Rees said. His team is “still very comfortable” being overweight U.S. equities. They expect corporate earnings will be better in 2014 than in 2013, he added.

FactSet basically says one key valuation metric is above its 5-year and 10-year average, but it’s below its 15-year average and not anywhere near its levels in the late 1990s or early 2000s.

Here’s an excerpt from emailed comments from John Butters at FactSet:

The forward 12-month P/E ratio for the S&P 500 now stands at 15.0, based on yesterday’s closing price (1790.62) and forward 12-month EPS estimate ($119.26). This is the highest forward 12-month P/E ratio logged by the S&P 500 in more than four years (September 2009).

On the one hand, the index is now trading above both the 5-year (13.0) and 10-year (14.0) average P/E ratios. On the other hand, it is still trading below the 15-year average P/E ratio (16.2), and is not close to the peak P/E ratio of 25 recorded in the late 1990’s and early 2000’s.

Zulily is still holding up well, on pace to roughly double in its debut.

One of the reader comments here is interesting when it comes to Zulily: “Zulily really? I have kids and live on the internet and I have never heard of them until today. Another daily deals of high end kids stuff. A Tiffany’s of soft goods or another short in the making?”

The EPA‘s new ethanol proposal has hurt the corn plays and helped refiners.

From The Wall Street Journal: “The EPA is asking refiners in 2014 to blend 15.2 billion gallons of renewable fuel—most of it ethanol—into U.S. gasoline supplies. That is about 16% less than what Congress specified in a 2007 renewable-fuels law. The law gives EPA the ability to lower the requirement.”

Zulily is a money-losing and barely four-year old flash-sale website, but it’s still up roughly 70% in its trading debut with about 45 minutes to go before the closing bell.

Zulily, touting itself as a “disruptive e-commerce company,” said it aims to change moms’ retail experience that it said “has become uninspiring due to the concentration of sales among mass retailers and commoditization of merchandise.” That’s according to a Behind the Storefront blog post.

With much of the market’s action revolving around Janet Yellen, as the excuse for flat trading before her testimony, or as the reason stocks and gold rallied after her comments, we thought it fitting to end with what she said on stocks:

I think that if you look at traditional valuation measures, the kinds of things we monitor, akin, to price-equity ratios, you would not see stock prices in territory that suggests bubble-like conditions.

For more on the week’s top 10 stories, read this piece by economics editor Steve Goldstein. Tune in on Sunday for a look ahead at next week’s trading (hint – it’s tech heavy). We’ll be back on the blog Monday.

Story Conversation

About The Tell

The Tell is MarketWatch’s fast and engaging look at trends and themes in the day’s markets. Drawing on our reporters, analysts and commentators around the world, as well as selecting the best of the rest online, The Tell is all about the pulse of the markets through news, insight and strategic information to help you make the best investing decisions. Got a tip? Tell us at TheTell@MarketWatch.com