A figure below illustrates the Fed to raise interest rates or a big mistake this year

Night network, network nightlife Wall Street FRANCISCO 28 pm news, the European Central Bank [microblogging] China's central bank cut interest rates easing and commitment RRR stimulate global stock markets sharply higher, but with the Fed is about to announce the latest interest rate decision, a slight decline last two days。The Fed will release a policy statement in Beijing Thursday 2:00, most economists expect the Fed will do anything。However, Fed officials, including economists still expect the Fed to start raising interest rates before the end of this year cycle, which is the interest rate at December meeting。 Most Fed officials believe that developments in the US labor market to support the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates before the end of the year, Goldman Sachs (Goldman Sachs) also considered the possibility of the Fed raising interest rates in December is relatively large, but Goldman Sachs economists probability of only 60%。 In contrast, ANZ Bank (ANZ) analysis given in the latest report shows us a worrying phenomenon: Although the Fed has not yet begun to raise interest rates, the US financial environment over the past 18 months has been significantly tightened。Figure American GDP growth and financial conditions index based on the relationship between the past financial environment and GDP growth, a significant tightening of financial conditions should indicate a slowing US economy。Indeed, the recent series of economic data showed the US economy is indeed slowing down, including employment data, durable goods orders, etc.。 Richard Yetsenga ANZ Bank global head of financial markets research admitted: "To have confidence in the Fed's policy stance is very difficult。"Now, other central banks are easing or commitment to further easing, if the Fed to raise interest rates too quickly, will push the dollar rose sharply, leading to a further tightening of US financial conditions。Perhaps the Fed raising interest rates really need to think twice。(Tony compilation)