football

After the ClusterPunt debacle with MSU on Saturday, I continue to be in a state of suspended disbelief regarding UM's ranking at #2 as per the S&P+ composite numbers. What's also interesting to note, beside the smattering of teams with 2 and 3 losses in the top 25, is that the upper echelon which U-M shares with Clemson, is separated by about 2.5 points from the next level shared by Alabama & Baylor. The total separation across the top 10 is about one TD, and 2 TD's across the top 25.

Along those lines, Bill Connelly has once again updated the Adv. Stats Profile for Michigan, which of course features a win probability for each of the remaining games. So given that, here's an updated look at the Total Wins Probability distribution:

Bill Connelly's model continues to be stoked on that high-octane MaizenBrew Cool-Aid. I'd suspected that UM's statistical profile is some sort of outlier and some regression toward the mean might be anticipated after future games - especially after a loss that saw the defense gouged by Connor Cook, but trying to noodle thing through, the defense allowed only 21 points to MSU's top 40 offense, which is still much better than average, and that gets effectively averaged with the other 6 games. That said, it would seem that U-M's defense is well-established at the so-called "elite" level, and it will take significant and protracted poor performance to revert from that. Same principal would also apply to the offense, I think. Pretty well established at the top 50-ish range.

The likelihood of beating OSU has declined from 82% last week to 71% now. Sound familiar? OSU once again is taking half a season to remember how to play football while practicing with tomato cans, but will probably have things in order by the time Sparty comes to town, which is good for U-M, because U-M needs OSU to be undefeated when they roll into Ann Arbor.

Mr. Obvious: "That means I'll have to pull for OSU. Maybe I'll just take the Missus out for brunch at the Museum that day."

"The enemy of my enemy is my friend."
- Sanskrit proverb, ~400 B.C.

So just to get a complete picture of how all of these probabilities impact conference standings and prospects for U-M to win a B1G Championship, here you go:

B1G East

B1G

Overall

W

L

W

L

Michigan*

7

1

10

2

Ohio State

7

1

11

1

Michigan State

6

2

10

2

Penn State

5

3

8

4

Rutgers*

2

6

5

7

Indiana

2

6

6

6

Maryland

0

8

2

10

B1G West

B1G

Overall

W

L

W

L

Iowa

8

0

12

0

Wisconsin

6

2

9

3

Illinois*

5

3

8

4

Nebraska

5

3

7

5

Northwestern

2

6

6

6

Minnesota

1

7

4

8

Purdue

0

8

1

11

* head-to-head tie break winner

Given that U-M is expected to win each of its remaining games, including OSU, and MSU is also expected to lose to OSU and at Nebraska, that would make U-M the B1G East champion. U-M would also be favored to beat Iowa in that neutral site matchup.

Very brief article with the subject saying it all. Woodson believes he can play until he's 49-might he become the oldest player in NFL history, replacing another Raider? The man is leading the league in interceptions so why not another 10 years.

I started thinking about this Sunday but after seeing Jamele's little "we own you" I thought I would see what my fellow mgobloggers think.

Assuming (and it's a big assumption) that Dantonio & Harbaugh are still coaching for the next 10 years how many times will UM beat sparty? If I set the over/under at 6.5 what will you take? Personally I'd take the over. Do the same for OSU and put the over/under at 5.5 I might just avoid this one all together. But if I had to choose I'd take the under as I can see these two rivals splitting the next 10.