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29.11.10

Scientists murdered in Iran.

If the USA got caught doing this kind of stuff the backlash would be immense and swift and massively complicate US efforts in the region.

If Israel got fingered with actual evidence the reaction would be: "Oh, you guys again, eh?"

There's tons to gain for Israel in doing this kind of stuff, and little to lose except a few low-level operatives.

There's some to gain for the US and TONS to lose.

There's plenty to gain and LOTS to lose for some other actors like Saudi Arabia and some other Gulf States or maybe even Turkey or Russia.

Either case it IS murder of civilians - but where you draw the line between a civilian working on a very likely nuclear weapon project and a civilian who's just an average Ahmed trying to make a living - that's kinda iffy. Killing one sort-of innocent person if doing so can delay the nuclearization of Middle Eastern conflicts by a few years? Sure, sounds like a good deal to me. Let's not be naive here and let's realize that there's very little the West and allies can do to realistically stop Iran from getting the bomb. Israel is willing to strike but doesn't have good targets.

Iran will have nuclear weapons - might as well start planning for it. Might as well get Israel into the NPT well before that. And start talking to Russia and Turkey about how to handle it. And get the Chinese in on this. Cutting off the North Korean supply chain might be a little late, but better that than never.