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Wednesday, January 31, 2018

Russia's Plan for Syria Collapses in Sochi

By Bradley Hanlon

Key Takeaway: Russia’s effort to secure a diplomatic “end” to the Syrian civil war that preserves Syrian president Bashar al Assad failed. Russia’s “Syrian National Dialogue Congress” concluded in Sochi on January 30th without meaningful progress. Russia’s failure reflects the limits of its leverage in Syria and demonstrates the futility of looking to Russia for diplomatic solutions in the Middle East and North Africa.

Russia failed in its effort to secure a diplomatic “end” to the Syrian civil war that preserves Syrian President Bashar al Assad. Russia’s diplomatic initiative, titled the “Syrian National Dialogue Congress”, concluded in Sochi on January 30th without meaningful progress. The Kremlin’s stated goal was to establish a political solution to the Syrian Civil War.[1] Russia’s true objective was to construct an agreement that would formally end the war on terms favorable to Syrian President Bashar al Assad. The Kremlin failed to compel opposition groups to attend despite significant diplomatic outreach, a deal with Turkey, and an attempt to reframe the event under the auspices of the UN peace process.[2]

Russia’s failure reflects the limits of its leverage in Syria. The events in Sochi demonstrate that many Syrian groups correctly do not regard Russia as a legitimate peace broker despite its efforts to posture as such. Russia’s strategic interests in Syria include subverting any international attempt to reach a political settlement that would require the Assad regime to grant concessions to the opposition. Russia is a belligerent in the Syrian civil war on behalf of Assad. It does not have the leverage necessary to lead a successful diplomatic effort between Syrian parties, therefore.

The U.S. should reject similar Russian diplomatic initiatives elsewhere in the Middle East and North Africa, where Russia has even less influence. Russia established a “Libyan Contact Group” in 2015 to facilitate dialogue between opposing sides in the Libyan Civil War.[3] Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov also indicated Russia seeks to act as a peace-broker between conflicting parties in Yemen.[4] Russia’s actual goals in these conflict zones include expanding its regional basing and obtaining economic partnerships. It seeks to use such bases and resources to further constrain the U.S. and NATO while advantaging Russia in any future conflict. The U.S. must not fall for this ruse.