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Since the day Democratic Rep. Scott Murphy won last year’s special election, Republicans have been planning ways to take back the House seat in update New York.

The GOP’s odds looked good on paper. After all, New York’s 20th congressional district leans conservative and was in Republican hands just four years ago. And the Republican challenger — Chris Gibson — is a likable retired Army colonel and Iraq war veteran without a long public record of taking votes or stances on controversial issues.

Republican Chris Gibson. (Times Union/Cindy Schultz)

But less than three weeks before voters head to the polls, it’s not the Murphy-Gibson contest that is giving Republicans their best chances of picking up seats in New York state. Instead, the GOP is within striking distance in other Empire State races — and political analysts increasingly predict Murphy will hold onto his seat in the House.

“If you look at this (race) in a vacuum, you might assume this is one of the ones Republicans would pick up,” said Isaac Wood, a political scientist who analyzes House races at the University of Virginia. But Murphy has maintained a consistent advantage in fundraising and polling — unlike other Democratic incumbents in the region.

A Grove Insight poll released by the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee on Oct. 4 showed Murphy enjoying a 13-point lead. A Public Opinion Strategies poll released by Gibson’s campaign the same day showed Murphy four points ahead.

Either way, Wood said, that’s an advantage for Murphy — and a telling sign about where the race stands in a year when Democrats’ polling numbers are down nationwide.

Democratic Rep. Scott Murphy. (Times Union/Cindy Schultz)

“What we’re seeing across the country is a bunch of polls that show Democrats down,” Wood said. “So if you see (one) leading even narrowly, that’s a big sign.”

Political forecasters say the contest is close, but leaning in Murphy’s favor. The Cook Political report, Congressional Quarterly and Larry Sabato of the University of Virginia all label the race as leaning Democratic. The Rothenberg Political Report says the race between Murphy and Gibson is a toss-up that tilts Democrat — one of 11 such match-ups nationwide.

Republicans still hope to put the seat in their column on Election Day.

“Knocking off Scott Murphy is one of our top priorities. We’re fully committed to New York 20,” said Tory Mazzola, a spokesman for the National Republican Congressional Committee. “We know that this will be a very close race, and we expect to pull through.”

Other House seats in New York are in flux — with Democratic incumbents John Hall, Michael Arcuri and Bill Owens all in pitched reelection battles.

Keep reading for a closer look at some of the closest congressional races in New York.

Republicans like their chances — and a political environment that is friendlier than party strategists or outside observers had predicted at the beginning of 2009.

“The field in New York has grown beyond where anyone thought it would have,” Mazzola said.

DCCC spokesman Shripal Shah says the candidates in tight New York races have a path to victory.

“Republicans in these districts are campaigning on extremist and out-of-touch agendas that are wrong for New York,” Shah said. “Their agendas have already been rejected across the entire state and this November isn’t going to be any different.”

Like Murphy, Hall was elected in 2006 to represent a district that has a history of putting Republicans in office — and one that narrowly went for President Obama in 2008.
But without the Democratic tailwinds he had two years ago, Hall is in a tough fight against Republican Nan Hayworth, an ophthalmologist who has been able to lure Hudson Valley voters with moderate views. A Siena Research poll released Wednesday showed Hayworth had a 7-point lead among independent voters. According to the same survey, Hall and Hayworth are in a neck-and-neck race, with Hayworth leading by 3 percentage points, within the poll’s margin of error. Congressional Quarterly has labeled the race a “toss up.” David Wasserman, editor of the Cook Political Report, and analyst Stuart Rothenberg call the contest a toss up that tilts Democratic.

This contest is essentially a rematch between the two candidates who faced off two years ago. Both Arcuri and Hanna are pitching themselves to voters as moderates who aren’t afraid to buck their party’s leaders — Republican or Democratic. A Siena poll released Sept. 20 showed Arcuri had an eight-point lead over Hanna. Rothenberg rates the race a “pure toss up” — in line with predictions from Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball and Congressional Quarterly.

Democrats’ hopes of holding on to this seat were dealt a big blow earlier this month when Conservative Party candidate Doug Hoffman abandoned his bid, which had threatened to split the Republican vote.
Hoffman’s pullout gives Doheny a better shot “of solidifying the GOP vote,” said Wasserman, who has labeled the race a “Democratic toss up.”
Still, the effects of Hoffman’s candidacy linger. A Siena poll released Wednesday showed that Owens had a five-point lead when survey respondents were told that Hoffman was out of the race. Owens’ lead in the poll climbs to 11 points for survey respondents who thought it was still a three-way race.

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Jennifer A. Dlouhy covers energy policy, politics and other issues for The Houston Chronicle and other Hearst Newspapers from Washington, D.C. Previously, she reported on legal affairs for Congressional Quarterly. She also has worked at The Beaumont Enterprise, The San Antonio Express-News and other newspapers. Jennifer enjoys cooking, gardening and hiking. She lives in Washington, D.C., with her husband and toddler son.

About Capitol Confidential

Capitol Confidential gathers the best coverage of New York politics and puts it all together. Each section - Capitol, The State Worker, New York on the Potomac, and Voices - represents a unique facet of the political scene. The Capitol section features coverage from the Times Union Capitol bureau. The State Worker is dedicated to state worker issues. New York on the Potomac offers news of interest to New Yorkers from Washington. And Voices features the best of everything else, pointing you to columnists and bloggers from across the Web.