Tuesday, November 24, 2015

Happy Turkey Day Week and a New Projection!

I'm one of the last folks here today. Talk about crickets. Tomorrow is going to be even worse! I normally take the day off to go do last minute Thanksgiving errands and pick up my turkey trot bib (I have run the last 8 years, this year will be 9 years, of the Oceanside Turkey Trot), but I decided I am not driving up to North County on the day before Thanksgiving again (i.e. worst travel day of the year - last two years I have spent far too much time in traffic) and will just deal with picking it up race morning.

Anyway, enough about me! The prediction calculation is done. I automated the data table output (I was able to reuse some of the same methods I use for the race vs race) and this will help reduce human error. The last part will be to automate the prediction such that it just outputs me the total runners and the cut off in seconds.

Here is the age group breakdown:

AG

2014 Qualifiers

2014 AG Total

% Qualifiers

2015 Qualifiers

2015 AG Total

% Qualifiers

F18-34

1460

16066

9.09%

1332

14408

9.24%

F35-39

667

5711

11.68%

628

5411

11.61%

F40-44

579

4990

11.60%

560

4555

12.29%

F45-49

551

3282

16.79%

509

3207

15.87%

F50-54

296

2023

14.63%

334

2043

16.35%

F55-59

172

1047

16.43%

136

925

14.70%

F60-64

74

419

17.66%

70

429

16.32%

F65-69

24

136

17.65%

31

151

20.53%

F70-74

5

38

13.16%

3

38

7.89%

F75-79

0

11

0.00%

1

8

12.50%

F80+

0

0

0.00%

0

1

0.00%

M18-34

1288

14181

9.08%

1099

12558

8.75%

M35-39

597

6521

9.16%

584

6020

9.70%

M40-44

666

6490

10.26%

616

5989

10.29%

M45-49

765

5097

15.01%

691

4831

14.30%

M50-54

617

3896

15.84%

519

3656

14.20%

M55-59

382

2466

15.49%

347

2373

14.62%

M60-64

232

1223

18.97%

215

1196

17.98%

M65-69

98

492

19.92%

81

473

17.12%

M70-74

33

176

18.75%

25

170

14.71%

M75-79

5

47

10.64%

8

42

19.05%

M80+

0

8

0.00%

2

14

14.29%

Totals

8511

74320

11.45%

7791

68498

11.37%

Qualification rate is holding steady, only down 0.68%; the total number of qualifiers is down 8.46%.

Here are the margin distribution percentages:

Margin

2014

Percentage

2015

Percentage

<1 minute

525

6.17%

435

5.58%

1-2 minutes

524

6.16%

456

5.85%

2-3 minutes

483

5.68%

402

5.16%

3-4 minutes

429

5.04%

414

5.31%

4-5 minutes

405

4.76%

327

4.20%

5-10 minutes

1770

20.80%

1615

20.73%

10-20 minutes

2220

26.08%

2109

27.07%

20> minutes

2155

25.32%

2033

26.09%

Totals

8511

7791

Squeaker Pack is 26.11% vs last year at 27.8%. The gap is staying stable, more people qualifying with 5+ minutes.

And the piece of data you probably have been waiting to read, the prediction.

The number of runners achieving 147 or better in the last 7 races in 2014 was 7234. Taking the 2015 qualifiers for these races and sorting on margin descending we get...

76 seconds or 1 minute 16 seconds

Not too surprising that it went up. Toronto 2015 performances were pretty close to 2014 - the record cut off year. So even being a smaller feeder, it will have an impact.