My goal here is to educate readers about the state of US economy, our markets and our little slice of heaven here in the North Country. Maybe, just maybe, I'll even entertain you a bit.

Friday, February 03, 2017

Jobs day

I'll offer up a bit of analysis that I've yet to hear anywhere re: the 227k jobs created in January. A large portion of the "jobs" created in the report are "modeled jobs" based on samples. Basically, they are a creation of someone working on an excel spreadsheet.

Included in those models are seasonal adjustments which do things like add more jobs in the winter months even though the jobs don't exist because you want to smooth out the overall growth.

Ah, isn't that beautiful? Again, these aren't real numbers but they show the effect of seasonal smoothing. So, the seasonal factors have been built over many years where we have observed the impact on job growth change with the seasons. However, we just had one of the warmest January's in 50 years and very little disruption to travel due to weather. This probably made our January jobs data look a lot more like a March or April jobs number. However, when you apply the January seasonal factor you get - boom!!! 227,000 jobs. If and when we have numerous storms in a month, the jobs data is impacted and the first line out of everyone's mouth is "Well, the weather impacted the report...". The truth is the weather can have a positive impact as well, but no one ever seems to complain about that.

I expect you'll see that number revised in the coming months but no one will notice if and when the revised numbers are released.

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About Me

I grew up in La Fargeville before attending college in Manhattan and ultimately working on Wall Street for about 10 yrs. I left NYC/NJ in 2003 and relocated my family to the beautiful waterfront of Clayton, NY. I spend my days caring for my 2 daughters and dabbling in the markets.