Verizon iPhone more likely in 2011

Still hoping for a Verizon iPhone this year? One analyst says that’s unlikely to happen.

In a research note issued today that covers Verizon’s financial forecast for 2010, Pali Research analyst Walter Piecyk said he didn’t include the prospect of the carrier obtaining the iPhone “because we do not believe this is (a) probable event.”

“Also, if Verizon does sell an iPhone in 2010, we suspect it would be at the end of 2010 rather than the middle, which is widely rumored in the press,” Piecyk wrote. “We do believe, however, that it is likely that Verizon will have the iPhone in 2011.”

Another interesting nugget in the note is about wireless adoption. The wireless industry is at 92 percent penetration in the United States and unlikely to grow much further.

Piecyk notes that while there are markets around the world that are at 100 percent penetration, “they are typically markets that are predominantly pre-paid in which customers swap SIM cards in and out of GSM phones thereby overstating the penetration rate.”

“In the United States, 80 percent of wireless customers are post-paid and while the mix of pre-paid customers has increased steadily to 20 percent today from 10 percent over the past decade, we do not believe the United States is headed to a market dominated by pre-paid users as has happened throughout the world,” Piecyk wrote. “Therefore, we believe 92 percent penetration is a clear indicator of the limited subscriber growth left in the United States.”

And as if the Verizon/AT&T rivalry wasn’t already heated (see here and here), Piecyk said that for Verizon, 2010 “is more about performance relative to AT&T rather than the market.”

“Our investment thesis is more about Verizon’s relative performance to AT&T over a three year period, when we expect Verizon to materially outperform AT&T in terms of EPS (earnings per share) growth.”

Andy Vuong joined The Denver Post as a business reporter in 2000 after graduating from the University of Colorado at Boulder with a news-editorial degree. His primary beats are gambling, telecommunications and technology. Over the years, his coverage has included everything from aviation to federal courts.