MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1137
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0146 PM CDT TUE JUN 23 2015
AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN NY INTO CT/RI/MASS/VT/NH/MAINE
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 341...
VALID 231846Z - 232015Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 341
CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...AT LEAST ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP/INCREASE THROUGH MID/LATE AFTERNOON FROM
EASTERN NY INTO PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND. AN ADDITIONAL/REPLACEMENT
WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED LATER THIS AFTERNOON FOR AT LEAST
PORTIONS OF THE REGION.
DISCUSSION...IN THE WAKE OF EARLY DAY CONVECTION/CLOUD
COVER...MODEST AIR MASS RECOVERY/DESTABILIZATION CONTINUES TO
GRADUALLY OCCUR PARTICULARLY ACROSS EASTERN NY INTO SOUTHERN/FAR
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AS OF MID-AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...WITH
A RELATED INCREASE IN SHOWERS/SOME THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN NY
AS OF 245 PM EDT/1845Z. STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN
COVERAGE/INTENSITY THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON...WITH AT LEAST
GLANCING INFLUENCES OF AN EASTWARD-MOVING UPPER TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN
QUEBEC. THIS INTENSIFICATION COULD INCLUDE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF SEVERE HAIL AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO
RISK...PARTICULARLY GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF LOWER/MIDDLE TROPOSPHERIC
WINDS...EVEN WITH A TENDENCY FOR LOW-LEVEL VEERING. THE
EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD SPREAD OF MULTICELLS/EVOLVING LINEAR BANDS MAY
ULTIMATELY BE THE MORE PREVALENT CONCERN AS STORMS INCREASE/SPREAD
EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE EARLY/MID-EVENING HOURS.
..GUYER.. 06/23/2015
ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...BGM...BUF...
LAT...LON 41657519 43867532 44417382 43657194 43627059 41637079
40487303 41657519