A Tale of Two Invests

Good morning, everybody, Dr. Rob Carver filling in for Jeff on Independence Day.

Currently, NHC is monitoring two different areas for possible tropical cyclone development. Invest 95L is about 125 miles west-southwest of the mouth of the Mississippi and it doesn't have much thunderstorm activity associated with it. Dry air from the north and strong wind shear have weakened it considerably from yesterday, and NHC believes it has a 10% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone before the feature makes landfall.

Invest 96L is in the western Caribbean sea and bears watching closely. Earlier in the morning, the convection was all on the east side of the circulation center, but thunderstorms have developed on the southwest side. According to the CIMMS wind shear analysis, 96L is on the outskirts of a low wind shear region just east of the Yucatan peninsula. It's also over warm SST's (>29 deg C), so it could intensify. NHC gives it a 20% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours. Computer models have 96L going through the Yucatan Channel then turning left and making landfall somewhere near the Rio Grande.

Fig. 1 IR satellite composite from 720AM EDT.

Next UpdateMy next post will be sometime Monday afternoon/evening. If the situation changes significantly before then, I'll make a new post. In any event, enjoy the holidays...

its Been Soaking Wet and Rather Windy God a Though a woke up to a Tropical storm that How bad it Was

Typical Scottish weather then.... I just found out my uncle in Blackpool past away from heart attack. His cleaner found him. Funeral is on Tuesday, then it's my other Uncle and Aunties 50th wedding anniversary on Friday, he was meant to be guest of honor. A sad time in our Clan at the moment.

Quoting Murko:TX, so much for free speech. Why the hell would I be patriotic about America??

Because we invented your sunglasses...

Do us a favor, then. Do not benefit from the US in any way. You can start by not using any of our satellite information for tropical systems, invented/designed/funded by us. Some of you islanders would be constantly surprised by TCs without the US and European satellites.

Quoting Hurricane1956: Hello good morning!! and happy 4th of July,we are located in Miami and looking at the disturbance East of Florida,what is "AOI #1".means?,some of the models have this mess going east over South Florida,like a tropical disturbance? any comments? thanks!!!!!

Looks like Owen Roberts airport in Grand Cayman got its weather station knocked out. It isn't reporting pressure, visibility, or humidity. The last report was 28 minutes ago and it reported a wind gust of 33 mph.

Hello good morning!! and happy 4th of July,we are located in Miami and looking at the disturbance East of Florida,what is "AOI #1".means?,some of the models have this mess going east over South Florida,like a tropical disturbance? any comments? thanks!!!!!

Quoting extreme236:20% development chance appears to be the magic number to be classified as an invest.

94L got labeled when it had a 10% chance. If you don't remember 94L it was the wave that interacted with an ULL north of the greater Antilles. To me it just looks like they label an invest as soon as it goes yellow.

wee bit of revisionist history here. they took prayer out of school because it does not belong there. Are you so myopic that you can't even acknowledge that other religions exist? And if you can see beyond your nose, which religion's version of prayer would you allow?