“He’s a hitting machine. Just a flat-out hitting machine. What’s he hitting, .700?” wondered Sox manager Bobby Valentine. “Is it five? Well, I’ve never seen anybody hit that high. That’s why it seems like seven, I guess. He’s swinging, and the ball’s finding holes and jumping off his bat or hitting off of walls. He’s swinging really well.”

For the Red Sox last year, McDonald was chiefly an outfield platoon option who got at-bats against left-handed pitching. This spring, he’s been doing plenty of damage against right-handers as well, having gone 10-for-19 against them.

Valentine suggested that McDonald has shown not only that he deserves a place on the Red Sox roster again, but also that he is making a case for an expanded role.

“He hasn’t hit much against left-handed pitching down here and he’s hitting .500. I think he knows there’s a potential Opening Day… There’s some spots, some room,” said Valentine. “He wasn’t happy with last year. He’s proven that he belongs on this team. I like everything I see.”

There goes that Bobby Valentine again...NEVER complimenting his players...DUH!

So far he has suggested Bard might not be a starter because of some walks in ST and that Mac is more than a LHP masher because of some hits in ST. The guy that was sold to us as a super smart, stat savvy field manager is showing EV levels of SSS understanding.

OK, but suggesting that Valentine's comments to reporters about a bench player in spring training should be taken as reliable evidence of his thinking about stats and their uses is showing Nuke LaLoosh levels of baseball media relations understanding.

Comments: I still say there was never really any question regarding the Aviles/Iglesias contest. Aviles got the majority of looks at SS throughout the spring. If anything, there were probably a lot of discussions about the best use of Iglesias (big club platoon vs. AAA regular), that the Globe (read, Cafardo) decided to make into a "split" between Valentine and Cherington. It was good to see Iglesias cut down his strike outs, even in a short ST sample size. A true defensive whiz at SS with an OPS above 0.600 is certainly valuable, especially if you believe that defensive metrics are still a work in progress. A defensive whiz who's wizardry is mainly raw talent with a 0.500 OPS is not so valuable.

McDonald will be in the starting mix; again the line between starter and bench for the 3 OF positions until Crawford returns is a bit blurry. He'll also be valuable against LHP's. I'm projecting Crawford's return to be around May 1; I don't see any reason to rush his return whatsoever. The final spot goes down to Spears vs. Ciriaco, although there's a small chance it could go to a pitcher since there are pitchers without options; either way, Kalish gets moved to the 60-day to make room for at least one non-roster player to be added. The only other competition is at backup catcher; Lavarnway has the more AB's than either Salty or Shoppach, but I believe most of this is just to get Lavarnway some major league tutelage for as long as possible before returning to AAA. He'll be the first callup if either catcher gets hurt or if Shoppach should fail to break the Mendoza line by mid-May.

Pitchers:

Starters (1 - 5): Lester, Beckett, Buchholz, Bard, Doubront

Relievers: Bailey, Melancon, Aceves, Padilla, Bowden, Morales, Albers

60-day DL: Lackey, Jenks, Dice-K

DL: Rich Hill, Miller

Minors/released: Cook (till May 1), Carpenter, all other non-roster players

Comment: Contrary to all those claims that the team doesn't have a 4th or 5th starter, the Sox appear to actually have developed 2 starting pitchers from their minor league system. While neither should be expected to be an ace in 2012, they should improve over what we had in 2011 in the 4/5, which could very well have a pretty large impact on the team. The only gotcha is that it's unlikely either Bard or Doubront will be allowed to pitch anywhere near 200 major league innings, but there's time to deal with that. However, it is for those reasons that Cook will get stashed to the minors until at least 5/1, and that Padilla will make the major league roster, and that Miller will be stored on the DL until 5/1 as well. The order of the bullpen goes in order of job security; the team will have to figure out what to do with Miller at some point. With only 3 real innings pitched (excluding B games) this spring, Miller ain't gonna make the 25. But he useful as an insurance policy.

I've also moved to the Aceves to the pen side of the ledger. He is a known quantity and allows Bobby V a lot of flexibility in determining his most valuable fit for the team. Problems in the 8th, move Aceves there, 5-5 game after 4 innings and the starter's cooked, bring in Aceves, need a spot starter for 2 weeks, Aceves can fill that role. Bard or Doubront flop, move Aceves to starter. I'm not saying he can do all of this at the same time, just that he has the ability to fill any of those roles and likely perform quite well.

You know what might be a more interesting exercise is to predict the May 1 roster.

Mainly because of his body of work first 4 months of last season, and that he's not really forcing anyone off the roster. I get the feeling that Valentine likes Cook, and the organization wants to keep Miller. So giving both time to get some minor league or rehab work in during the first couple of weeks of the season, and then excising the very fungible Albers come May 1st just seems like the likely outcome. But that could still change.

I agree the May 1 roster will look different in some interesting ways.

Mainly because of his body of work first 4 months of last season, and that he's not really forcing anyone off the roster. I get the feeling that Valentine likes Cook, and the organization wants to keep Miller. So giving both time to get some minor league or rehab work in during the first couple of weeks of the season, and then excising the very fungible Albers come May 1st just seems like the likely outcome. But that could still change.

I agree the May 1 roster will look different in some interesting ways.

I haven't seen all that much of either one of them but I'm pretty sure I'd rather have Tazawa on the mound than Albers.

I haven't seen all that much of either one of them but I'm pretty sure I'd rather have Tazawa on the mound than Albers.

Albers performance last year should get him on the staff. Remember that he was as effective as anyone in the bullpen until he wore down in August after shouldering the burden of the affects of Wheeler and Jenks not getting it done. If he isn't overused by Valentine, i would definitely prefer him to an untested Tazawa.

Has anbody been able to explain why Albers has been non-existant in ST games? All I've heard is fat jokes about Albers from Bobby V. No explanation why Albers has been invisible this spring.

Albers showed up in 4 games for 5.2 ip, 7 h, 3 bb, 4 K, just one out short of Andrew Bailey and an inning short of Tazawa, Mortenson, Melancon and Ohlendorf. Albers has had his chances, and probably isn't on the bubble, so Valentine doesn't need to see as much of Albers as he does of Bowden, Thomas, Atchison and Mathis (lots of innings for each).

What this team could really use on the bench is a LH bat to pinch-hit for the SS. That gives Spears an edge for the last roster spot, but it also (for the first time that I can remember) gives them the opportunity to make a waiver claim on someone who's been cut loose at the end of ST.

In fact, you can argue that when Crawford comes back, such a player would be way more useful than McDonald, who will then be assuming the role he struggled so terribly with the first half of last year: 5th OF (with Sweeney and Ross replacing Drew and Cameron).

What this team could really use on the bench is a LH bat to pinch-hit for the SS. That gives Spears an edge for the last roster spot, but it also (for the first time that I can remember) gives them the opportunity to make a waiver claim on someone who's been cut loose at the end of ST.

In fact, you can argue that when Crawford comes back, such a player would be way more useful than McDonald, who will then be assuming the role he struggled so terribly with the first half of last year: 5th OF (with Sweeney and Ross replacing Drew and Cameron).

I agree. Better yet, another switchhitter who could play multiple positions will be perfect. The Padres have 2 such utility players, only one of whom will make their team (I'm not sure about their options):

What this team could really use on the bench is a LH bat to pinch-hit for the SS. That gives Spears an edge for the last roster spot, but it also (for the first time that I can remember) gives them the opportunity to make a waiver claim on someone who's been cut loose at the end of ST.

In fact, you can argue that when Crawford comes back, such a player would be way more useful than McDonald, who will then be assuming the role he struggled so terribly with the first half of last year: 5th OF (with Sweeney and Ross replacing Drew and Cameron).

Brad Hawpe is apparently being cut loose....he seems like an ideal bench bat. And there are a couple teams looking for a RH bench bat (ATL is one I know)...so this might be the right time to flip McDonald.

What this team could really use on the bench is a LH bat to pinch-hit for the SS. That gives Spears an edge for the last roster spot, but it also (for the first time that I can remember) gives them the opportunity to make a waiver claim on someone who's been cut loose at the end of ST.

In fact, you can argue that when Crawford comes back, such a player would be way more useful than McDonald, who will then be assuming the role he struggled so terribly with the first half of last year: 5th OF (with Sweeney and Ross replacing Drew and Cameron).

But isn't that LHH pinch-hitter Sweeney, once Crawford comes back? Unless Sweeney can discover some semblance of a power stroke in the first month, I find it hard to imagine he'll actually be platooned with Ross. Not with the Sox so LHH-heavy with non-displaceable starters already.

I now think Repko has the inside track to break camp, because it appears Cherington and BobbyV are taking the relatively conservative route: 12 pitchers, 6 infielders (including Ortiz), 2 catchers, and 5 outfielders. I also suspect BobbyV will initially be very conservative in his usage of pinch-hitters in general -- again, at least until June 1 or so. So I just can't see the Sox carrying either a dedicated bat-off-the-bench or an IF/OF super-utility player for the first month.

After the all-star break, maybe some dedicated-role personnel will be added to the bench...but first BobbyV has to see what he's got to play around with in reality. The flexibility of Punto and McDonald and Repko isn't a sexy kind of flexibility, but they'll be able to give the starters a day off every now and then while BobbyV takes stock of the strengths and flaws of the team in actual competition.

FWIW, maybe I'm just overreacting to having been one of the folks clamoring for Ortiz to be platooned with Cameron last March. In theory it sounded so good, but in reality...urk. Papi just kept punishing LHP while Cameron couldn't hit his way out of a paper bag.

I agree. Better yet, another switchhitter who could play multiple positions will be perfect. The Padres have 2 such utility players, only one of whom will make their team (I'm not sure about their options).

Parrino is leading to make their team and has a career .766 OPS in the minors.

By comparison, Everth Cabrera, has 3 more years of ML experience with a .647 OPS after a .765 OPS in the minors

Everth Cabrera has played on the MLB Padres 3 times, so he should be out of options. Parrino still has options. This makes it likely that Cabrera will make the big club in spite of his inferior spring numbers. Assuming Cabrera makes the Padres MLB roster, neither player will be available for now. Perhaps Cabrera (generally a fly ball hitter) will be available after he gets destroyed by PETCO park?

You need a pinch hitter who is a stronger hitter than Aviles, though, for it really to make sense. How often would you really be PHing for Aviles, especially since it could mean Punto has to hit later? I think Sweeney, Ross, and McDonald will be that guy.

But isn't that LHH pinch-hitter Sweeney, once Crawford comes back? Unless Sweeney can discover some semblance of a power stroke in the first month, I find it hard to imagine he'll actually be platooned with Ross. Not with the Sox so LHH-heavy with non-displaceable starters already.

If Ross gets the majority of starts vs. RHP over Sweeney, I'll stop watching the games. Seriously. There's so little justification for that in their track records. And that's without factoring in how much better Sweeney has hit when given a platoon role rather than a bench one.

You need a pinch hitter who is a stronger hitter than Aviles, though, for it really to make sense. How often would you really be PHing for Aviles, especially since it could mean Punto has to hit later? I think Sweeney, Ross, and McDonald will be that guy.

If you had a PH who hit RHP significantly better than Aviles (which is a low bar), a good manager can do that in the late innings, get the better defender in the game, and not have Punto come up often at all. It's standard managerial stuff.

They've got to be able to find someone who hits RHP better than Ross (.253 / .313 / .414 career). He has been terrific as a PH, though (.268 / .388 / .554 in 67 PA) -- I'm going to try to figure out the platoon splits on that.

If Ross gets the majority of starts vs. RHP over Sweeney, I'll stop watching the games. Seriously. There's so little justification for that in their track records. And that's without factoring in how much better Sweeney has hit when given a platoon role rather than a bench one.

Sweeney's career wOBA vs. RHP is .332. Ross's is .317. You're going to stop watching games over that difference?

Sweeney's got a big platoon split, yes, but so far in his career it's been more a matter of him being horrendous against LHP than very good against RHP.

You need a pinch hitter who is a stronger hitter than Aviles, though, for it really to make sense. How often would you really be PHing for Aviles, especially since it could mean Punto has to hit later? I think Sweeney, Ross, and McDonald will be that guy.

While I agree with you that the three OFers are *likely* to be stronger hitters than Aviles, it's not an open and shut case.

Factoring in Sweeney's above average defense, once Crawford comes back I think you absolutely have to give Sweeney the majority of the starts in RF vs. RHP. This platoon could easily produce a .350 wOBA with slightly above average defense. After the disaster in RF last season, I can't even express how happy that would make me.

Can you tell anything from Ross's deep stats like FB/LD/GB ratios or which field he hits to about how much Fenway might help him against righthanded pitching, and likewise how much Sweeney's batted ball distributions might be hurt by Fenway's deep right and right center fields?

Seems to me I want Aviles and Ross in the game when I'm at Fenway, while the platoon on the road with Sweeney and Punto makes more sense.

Seems to me I want Aviles and Ross in the game when I'm at Fenway, while the platoon on the road with Sweeney and Punto makes more sense.

Platooning Aviles and Punto makes no sense no matter where you're playing. Punto does have a modest OBP advantage vs. RHP, but is worse in pretty much every other offensive category, and the sum total, in wOBA terms, says Aviles is the better hitter vs. RHP (.307 to .295). Certainly when Aviles gets his scheduled days off, it should be vs. RHP (pretty easy to manage since that's 65-70% of your games); but a full-on platoon, even just in road games, would be giving Punto too much credit. (EDIT: unless you think Punto is defensively superior to a degree that more than cancels out the offensive gap, which is possible, but I'd want to see more of both of them before I'd make that call.)

Sweeney/Ross is a different story, since Sweeney really does hit better vs. RHP than Ross, just not by a margin worth boycotting the games for.

@aron7awol: I'd be curious to know where CAIRO is getting that .352 wOBA projection vs. RHP for Sweeney, considering that would top his career high by .002 and his career average by .020. (Actually their projections for him vs. LHP are even more optimistic in career context.) I take it they're projecting an age-27 breakout. Are they projecting the improvement to be mostly in the ISO column?

Can you tell anything from Ross's deep stats like FB/LD/GB ratios or which field he hits to about how much Fenway might help him against righthanded pitching, and likewise how much Sweeney's batted ball distributions might be hurt by Fenway's deep right and right center fields?

Seems to me I want Aviles and Ross in the game when I'm at Fenway, while the platoon on the road with Sweeney and Punto makes more sense.

Here's Ross' 3 year hit chart vs. RHP:

He's moving from a park which is tough on RHB at 339 feet to left, to Fenway, which is easily the best RHB park in baseball. Obviously Fenway will give him a boost. Interestingly, he's hit better at home in his career, 112 wRC+ to 97.

Now Sweeney's 3 year hit chart vs. RHP:

He's moving from a park which is tough on LHB, as it is 330 feet down both lines with a shape which makes the corners get deeper quickly, to Fenway, which is still a good LHB park, especially to opposite field hitters. Sweeney's hit chart shows him to be the prototypical opposite field hitter. He will likely get quite a boost at Fenway as well. He is also the better fielder according to UZR.

After looking at this, I'm warming up to the idea of giving Ross some starts at home against RHP. I'd maybe follow a guideline like the following: As long as both players are healthy, give Ross all starts vs. LHP, give Sweeney all of the road starts vs. RHP, and give Ross half of the home starts vs. RHP pitchers which the advance scouting says are his top 50% matchups. This would end up around a 52.5%/47.5% split overall in Sweeney's favor.

@aron7awol: I'd be curious to know where CAIRO is getting that .352 wOBA projection vs. RHP for Sweeney, considering that would top his career high by .002 and his career average by .020. (Actually their projections for him vs. LHP are even more optimistic in career context.) I take it they're projecting an age-27 breakout. Are they projecting the improvement to be mostly in the ISO column?

I wondered the same. Ross has a career wOBA split of .317/.384 and is projected by CAIRO at .318/.350. Sweeney has a career wOBA split of .332/.272 and is projected by CAIRO at .352/.313. It is certainly expecting a breakout for some reason. Let's take a deeper look...

His career batting average vs. RHP is .296, so I think it mostly comes down to his improved walk rate last season. In 2011 he hit .286/.365/.377 vs. RHP, with a career high 11.2 BB%. If that new level of patience is real, and you simply use his career rates for AVG and ISO, you end up with a projected line of .296/.375/.402. This is without adjusting for Fenway.

Sweeney's overall CAIRO projection is .298/.362/.410, with a projection of 21.5% of his PAs against LHP. After looking at these numbers, it looks like CAIRO thinks his improved patience is a real projectable skill that he's developed. He went from career BB% around 8% for the first 4 years of his career to 11% last season.

Now, the other question that I don't know the answer to is, "Why the low projection for Cody Ross vs. LHP?"

SH - Which projections are you using for Punto and Aviles? Both ZiPS and CAIRO have Punto as the superior hitter against RHP.

I was using career numbers, not projections. Sorry I wasn't clear about that.

I suspect that ZiPS and CAIRO are more bullish on Punto because of his out-of-context 2011, in which he had a sOPS+ vs. RHP of 121 (not to mention 114 vs. LHP). If he actually figured something out last year--he raised his always-good walk rate to Drew territory and doubled his career ISO--or if he just needed to get out of Minnesota, then maybe those rosy projections are onto something. But it could also have been a combination of small sample (lowest PA # since '04) and worse competition (the NL Central was not exactly bursting with pitching talent last year), in which case I think the projections may be too optimistic.

Crawford is already on the 40-man, so he wouldn't need to displace anyone else, right?

If the NRI talent that got added to fill Crawford's spot was the type that didn't have options left, like say Repko or Ciriaco (the leading contenders, supposedly), then Crawford would's return would likely displace them from not just the 25-man roster but also the 40-man because they have to be DFA'd.

It'll be interesting to see how teams use the new 26 man roster rule for day-night doubleheaders. NL teams might add a hitter, but I assume the most usual move will be to add a bullpen arm or bring up a spot-starter if otherwise someone would have to start on short rest on the next turn in the rotation.

Teams are going to be allowed to expand to a 26-man roster for day-night doubleheaders -- assuming those doubleheaders are scheduled with at least 48 hours' notice. That's a recommendation of Bud Selig's special committee for on-field matters.• So why is that doubleheader rule noteworthy? Because Manfred said baseball is considering allowing teams to schedule one split doubleheader per season as it wrestles with new schedule issues related to year-round interleague play and the expanded postseason.

If Bailey has to start the season on the DL along with Miller, then they're going to need to add two pitchers not currently on the 25-man roster. Obviously Padilla is one, and needs a 40-man spot as well.

They also have to add a position player (Spears, Ciriaco, Repko, waiver claim) to the 25- and 40-man rosters.

They can clear two spots on the 40-man by moving Carpenter and Matsuzaka to the 60-day list (they can be backdated up to 10 days).

If Bailey has to start the season on the DL along with Miller, then they're going to need to add two pitchers not currently on the 25-man roster. Obviously Padilla is one, and needs a 40-man spot as well.

They also have to add a position player (Spears, Ciriaco, Repko, waiver claim) to the 25- and 40-man rosters.

They can clear two spots on the 40-man by moving Carpenter and Matsuzaka to the 60-day list (they can be backdated up to 10 days).

I'd still rather see Mortensen get DFA'd than any of the above, but if they are choosing from among the prospects, it seems like Exposito is the obvious choice. At 25, 4th on the depth chart, with Butler threatening to pass him this year, and tons of catching depth lower in the system too, Exposito is by far the most expendable player in the prospects on the 40-man category. Lin is clearly a superior player and more valuable asset than Exposito and also has a much higher ceiling since, like Iglesias, his defensive prowess means that he doesn't have to be a great batter to be a very valuable MLB player (and he already has one plus offensive tool developed). Tejeda, while I think he ends up a bust, still has tools to dream on and the chance he finally figures it out. Lars is too important as MLB depth and is, despite his struggles, too good a player to just release. And, Pimental and Britton have way too much talent to not give them both chances to recover from last year.

So, my DFA list right now starts with Mortensen and Expo as easy calls before anyone else. I'd reluctantly put Tejeda next on the list. I'll be really pissed if Lin gets waived as I think it's a move the Red Sox would very quickly come to regret.

Kalish is also currently scheduled to be out until early June while he continues to rehab his labrum.

Looking at the comparative depth the Sox have at starting pitching and outfield, from a risk-management perspective it makes more sense to put him on the 60-day DL than Matsuzaka. And much more than trying to pass Mortensen through waivers.

In theory, though, the Sox could add three NRI guys with 60-day DL moves to Carpenter, Kalish, and Matsuzaka.

so where does that leave Tazawa? The projected rosters page on soxprospects has him making the Boston pen, but the probable callup of Atchinson leads me to belive that Tazawa starts the season in Pawtucket. I suppose that makes sense because Atch will likely clear waivers while Tazawa won't.

I think it is kind of a waste of pitches talent wise because I think Tazawa is good enough to stick in Boston even possibly over Bowden although the options situation favors Bowden as well. It just sucks that the most talented pitchers aren't in the pen because of options/waivers etc. with the closer likely out until after the Allstar break the Sox need all the quality innings they can get and I think some of those quality innings will be thrown by Tazawa in Pawtucket.

Tazawa was already optioned to Pawtucket. Doesn't he need to remain in Pawtucket for the first 10 days of the MLB season, since he was optioned during spring training? That was my understanding of the rule. That rule might not apply if he was replacing someone that was DL'd, though, and presumably he would be replacing Bailey. However, they would have to actually DL the player first.

Tazawa was already optioned to Pawtucket. Doesn't he need to remain in Pawtucket for the first 10 days of the MLB season, since he was optioned during spring training? That was my understanding of the rule. That rule might not apply if he was replacing someone that was DL'd, though, and presumably he would be replacing Bailey. However, they would have to actually DL the player first.

Yup, they could DL Bailey and use that move to recall Tazawa.

Atchison is a much better option, though, and if Bailey goes on the 60-day list, as seems likely, there's room for him without waiving anyone.

Tazawa was already optioned to Pawtucket. Doesn't he need to remain in Pawtucket for the first 10 days of the MLB season, since he was optioned during spring training? That was my understanding of the rule. That rule might not apply if he was replacing someone that was DL'd, though, and presumably he would be replacing Bailey. However, they would have to actually DL the player first.