I expect Russia to try to get involved in the Eastern Ukraine. They'll use their standard excuse of "protecting ethnic Russians", see "Georgia" for a fairly recent example. If they are successful, expect the Ukraine to be split in two. However, I don't expect them to have as easy a time in the Ukraine as they did in Georgia. Hopefully, the Ukraine military is not blind to this threat and fattens up their eastern defenses. Russia has historically considered bordering countries as their property. Not their allies. Their farking property. They have zero regard for the sovereignty of those countries.

I really don't see Russia moving in. If Putin wanted to do so, he would have used an invitation by the now deposed leader to assist in putting down a terrorist uprising in Kiev and elsewhere last week while the Olympics were still keeping the world distracted. Putin is just going to use the economic tools at his disposal to put the screws to the Ukraine and hopefully have the new leadership come begging for relief. Russia is the Ukraine's biggest trading partner and energy supplier and Ukraine can't last long without Russian subsidies and trade.

The EU is in no condition to offer the generous subsidies Russia was providing or inclined to offer much assistance to another troubled country on the perimeter of the EU when they still have Greece, Portugal, Cyprus, Spain, Italy, and others in economic trouble with debt and employment issues. When aid fails to materialize and Russia offers to reinstate some assistance for some considerations to Russian leaning areas, this new Ukraine government might start drifting back into Russia's sphere of influence. After all, Russia doesn't care who is running things as long as they don't stray to far from Russia's sphere. This unrest was less about Russia and the EU and more about a corrupt leader overreaching and trying to secure power that was slipping away.

I expect something more like ethnic Ukranian death squads terrorizing ethnic Russian villages. By the end of August. Russia will use this as pretence to send tanks in, and death tolls in the tens of thousands minimum.

Has Russia made any such threat? It's just a question posed to Rice by a TV channel. It's not a likely scenario that the government has to deal with, nor is this an official government response, or warning. It's Condaleeza Rice's thoughts.

Slaxl:Has Russia made any such threat? It's just a question posed to Rice by a TV channel. It's not a likely scenario that the government has to deal with, nor is this an official government response, or warning. It's Condaleeza Rice's thoughts.

Seems to me this is what the Daily Mail (and most other news media) is up to.

Cerebral Ballsy:BMulligan: I remember thinking my dad was very irresponsible for refusing to build us a fallout shelter in the back yard. It was a weird time to grow up.

Have you ever considered how crappy it would be to survive a nuclear strike? I wonder if that's what your dad was thinking.

Yes I have, in the years since then, and you're right - it would be a horrible waste of time, money, and effort. But I think my dad was actually thinking that he'd rather just finish the basement and get a cool pool table, which is what he did.

BMulligan:Cerebral Ballsy: BMulligan: I remember thinking my dad was very irresponsible for refusing to build us a fallout shelter in the back yard. It was a weird time to grow up.

Have you ever considered how crappy it would be to survive a nuclear strike? I wonder if that's what your dad was thinking.

Yes I have, in the years since then, and you're right - it would be a horrible waste of time, money, and effort. But I think my dad was actually thinking that he'd rather just finish the basement and get a cool pool table, which is what he did.

whidbey:BMulligan: Cerebral Ballsy: BMulligan: I remember thinking my dad was very irresponsible for refusing to build us a fallout shelter in the back yard. It was a weird time to grow up.

Have you ever considered how crappy it would be to survive a nuclear strike? I wonder if that's what your dad was thinking.

Yes I have, in the years since then, and you're right - it would be a horrible waste of time, money, and effort. But I think my dad was actually thinking that he'd rather just finish the basement and get a cool pool table, which is what he did.

Bob Corker, the top Republican on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, added in a statement: 'The United States should do everything possible to ensure Ukraine remains one country and that their territorial and political integrity is maintained, allowing them the freedom to choose a future within Europe.'

We enjoy so much freedom, it's almost sickening. We're free to chose which hand our sex-monitoring chip is implanted in. And if we don't want to pay our taxes, why, we're free to spend a week with the Pain Monster.

Daedalus27:I really don't see Russia moving in. If Putin wanted to do so, he would have used an invitation by the now deposed leader to assist in putting down a terrorist uprising in Kiev and elsewhere last week while the Olympics were still keeping the world distracted. Putin is just going to use the economic tools at his disposal to put the screws to the Ukraine and hopefully have the new leadership come begging for relief. Russia is the Ukraine's biggest trading partner and energy supplier and Ukraine can't last long without Russian subsidies and trade.

The EU is in no condition to offer the generous subsidies Russia was providing or inclined to offer much assistance to another troubled country on the perimeter of the EU when they still have Greece, Portugal, Cyprus, Spain, Italy, and others in economic trouble with debt and employment issues. When aid fails to materialize and Russia offers to reinstate some assistance for some considerations to Russian leaning areas, this new Ukraine government might start drifting back into Russia's sphere of influence. After all, Russia doesn't care who is running things as long as they don't stray to far from Russia's sphere. This unrest was less about Russia and the EU and more about a corrupt leader overreaching and trying to secure power that was slipping away.

Running other countries by economic proxy makes a lot more sense that the old fashioned Soviet-style empire-building. All the real rewards, fewer risks and costs.

spamdog:I know that Russian-Georgian war was only in 2008, but from what I'm reading on wikipedia, the Georgian government did strike first, prompting the Russian response.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russia%E2%80%93Georgia_war

I know from all the Tom Clancy books I've read that the Russians are bad and all, but would they really try to intervene in Ukraine without a half-decent excuse?

From the Wiki article about the Russia-Georgia War:

The Russian communication systems used were obsolete, resulting in one case where the commander of the 58th army was reported to have communicated with his forces in the midst of combat via a satellite phone borrowed from a journalist.

A total of three Russian aircraft were shot down during the war, and Georgian air defenses were only driven off or destroyed by ground attacks, as the air force was unable to suppress them. The Russian Air Force was never able to fully stop aerial attacks by the Georgian Air Force, which was still flying sorties against Russian troops on August 11. The RIA Novosti editorial also stated that Russian Su-25 ground attack jets still lacked radar sights, computers for calculating ground-target coordinates and long-range air-to-surface missiles that could be launched outside enemy air-defense areas. Opposition affiliated Russian analyst Konstantin Makienko pointed out the poor performance of the Russian Air Force: "It is totally unbelievable that the Russian Air Force was unable to establish air superiority almost to the end of the five-day war, despite the fact that the enemy had no fighter aviation."

According to Georgian refugees, these servicemen showed little discipline or respect for the laws of war. Much of the ground fighting was carried out by Russian Airborne Troops, who could not be airlifted behind Georgian lines due to the Russian Air Force's inability to suppress Georgian air defenses. The 58th's Army's advance column, led by General Anatoly Khrulyov, ran directly into a Georgian ambush as it entered South Ossetia on 9 August, due to poor intelligence. Only five of the thirty vehicles in the convoy survived, and the column took heavy casualties, including General Khrulyov himself, who was wounded in the leg. Many Russian ground units were insufficiently supplied with ammunition, which led to additional losses.

There was some praise on the Russian navy's performance and improvement of the performance of ground forces since the Chechen Wars, but how capable is Russia's military? Ukraine is a lot larger and more populated than Georgia, but Russia could count on a certain amount of support from the population. I think it would take time for the US to move in forces to the area so European members of NATO will have to be the first to respond. Are they up for the challenge? Anyway, I doubt it would turn into a shooting war. If anything, worst case is the Russians move in and establish a line and dare NATO to attack which they most likely won't.

Publikwerks:Slaxl: Has Russia made any such threat? It's just a question posed to Rice by a TV channel. It's not a likely scenario that the government has to deal with, nor is this an official government response, or warning. It's Condaleeza Rice's thoughts.

Seems to me this is what the Daily Mail (and most other news media) is up to.

After Georgia and Syria, it's not outside the realm of possibilities.

A Russian intervention would only occur if an ethnic Russian regional government is formed in eastern-Ukraine, and this is then attacked by the Ukrainian army. At that point Russia would be morally justified in protecting ethnic Russians actively being attacked and oppressed. That also means that with that moral justification, Ukraine would be in the wrong, not Russia, thus no global ramifications.

When I'm talking about potential oppression, this is in the light of the fact that the former PM, asshat as he might be, was actually democratically elected. The ones that violated the EU brokered deal, was the opposition, not the democratically elected PM.