Stakes Abound in Gulfstream's Saturday Late Pick 5

by Brian Nadeau

December 29, 2017

While the Pegasus World Cup is still a month away, and the Triple Crown preps have yet to begin, Gulfstream park rarely disappoints on Saturday, and this week is no different. So, with that in mind, let’s take a look at the last five races, with an eye towards the Pk5.

R7: The Tropical Park Oaks for 3yo fillies at 1 1/16 miles on the turf (first division)

You have to think #3 DREAM AWHILE is going to improve in a big way for Chad Brown, as this is her second stateside start off a July layoff and her comeback at Aqueduct last time was a perfect tightener for this. She also gets a big boost because her two main rivals, #9 WESTIT and #11 STORM THE HILL, both drew poorly to the far outside. I respect them both, but Dream Awhile has a ton more upside and looks poised for a breakthrough.

R8: 3up 16k N3L going 1-mile on the turf

Another race where post position is big, as drawing outside at this trip is practically an eliminator, which is why #3 BURNING WILD is a big threat off the Navarro claim, though a horse that is 2-for-72 lifetime needs to be taken with a grain of salt. For whatever reason, #4 DISCO MAN has really turned the corner in his last three starts and any one of those efforts makes him a player here. And if he’s a threat, the #5 PERP has to be too, as he was beaten a neck by Disco Man the last time he ran on turf two-back. Obviously #7 ROCCIA D’ORO is a big player, and he’ll probably go favored with Jose Ortiz riding, but I can guarantee Mike Maker didn’t plan on claiming him for 30k and laying him off for 367 days, so tread very lightly here.

R9: The Tropical Park Oaks for 3yo fillies at 1 1/16 miles on the turf (second division)

This is far and away the deeper and tougher division of the Oaks, and narrowing the contenders is going to be tough, so you may want to simply draw a line in the sand and go with who you like best, as it’s kind of the ole “Use one or use them all” type of spot. I’m going to use that approach with #7 I’M BETTY G, as she gets some huge class relief after running very well in a trio of graded stakes. Her tactical speed is a big bonus too, over a course that flatters her style. From there, you could use anyone, as #1 Lido broke through with a lifetime best last time and doesn’t meet anyone like Rubilinda here; #2 Taperge has always been classy and beat’ Betty two-back; #3 Ghostly Presence threw down a big number on the turf two-back and Roget Attfield has brought a live group of horses with his from Woodbine and #10 Speighgal may have drawn poorly, but she ran out of her skin last time when winning and has the look of the “now” horse.

R10: The Via Borghese for 3upfm going 1 3/16 miles on the turf

Another toughie, with #9 BEAULY seeming the gal to beat off the close 4th in the GI Flower Bowl when last seen in October, though you could also make the case she needs this and is only prepping, so I wouldn’t want to stand alone with her. I’m going to go with #1 DARING DUCHESS, who may have some hidden form, as you can excuse the 1 ½-mile run last time, when she didn’t make the lead, and the run two-back was over yielding ground. It also looks to me like she’s loose in here, and Jose Ortiz is very adept at taking advantage of those kinds of circumstances. I’d be a little leery of #11 Promotional, as her lack of speed is a worry, and #3 Galileo’s Song is a proven refuser, and you know you’ll get no value with her, so tread lightly. You could do worse than #2 Martini Glass, though demand value, while #4 Texting seems a bit second tier and will likely be an underlay.

R11: The Tropical Park Derby for 3yos going 1 1/16 miles

You have to think this is the spot #3 PROFITEER finally gets a stakes win, as he’s been in good form while facing tougher and now meets a group that he should be able to handle. Drawing inside only adds to his appeal. From there things get a lot murkier, as the other potential favorites are all drawn terribly wide, as #11 Secretary of War, #12 Small Bear and #13 Funtastic all took the worst of it at the draw. All three can win and are big threats, but with Profiteer likely a better horse anyway, and drawn tons better, I’m apt to single him, which will also allow for more coverage early on.

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12.30.2017

Chad Brown has an opportunity to see stakes-winning status to another of his pupils Saturday when Galileo’s Song looms as the favorite in the Via Borghese Stakes, a true route race and the 3rd leg of the late Pick 4 Saturday at Gulfstream Park.The Irish-bred Galileo filly became added graded stakes placing when she was 2nd in the Grade 3 Long Island Handicap at Aqueduct. Galileo’s Song is getting more and more opportunities to stretch out her legs and is now on a steady diet of long races. The Via Borghese is a $75,000 turf race at 1 3-16th miles and Galileo’s Song stands out over most. The Long Island was at 1 1-2 miles, so she’s actually turning back in distance. Prior to that race she was 2nd in the Boiling Springs at Monmouth at 1 1-8 miles and overall is 2 of 9 with 5 2nd-place finishes. The $475,000 Keeneland purchase by Dell Ridge Farm isn’t yet halfway to her purchase price as she’s bankrolled $219,600Galileo’s Song is a must-use on the Pick 4 ticket, but Beauty also is a threat and is being used here. The Brendan Walsh-trained daughter of Sea the Stars was a closing 4th in the Grade I Flower Bowl. She was better than 50-1 and closed to 4th, just a neck to Brown trainee and heavy favorite Grand Jete, who was 3rd. War Flag captured the 1 1-4-mile grass race.The final race has two in play on the ticket in Small Bear and Funtastic, while the 8th and 9th races are wide open and each is represented by five runners.The 8th starts it off with Disco Man, Roccia d’Oro, Pure, Second Street and Woodburn. Roccia d’Oro is the favorite on a big class drop but this one could any of several ways.The 9th also has five with Lido, Taperge, Team of Teams, I’m Betty G and Speighgal. Taperge, another Brown trainee, is the lukewarm 4-1 morning line in the wide-open event but has a lot of closely rated competition.Here’s the suggested Pick 4 ticket:
Race 8: #4 Disco Man, #7 Roccia d’Oro, #10 Prue, #11 Second Street, #12 Woodburn.Race 9: #1 Lido, #2 Taperge, #5 Team of Teams, #7 I’m Betty G, #10 Speighgal.Race 10: #3 Galileo’s Song, #9 Beauty.Race 11: #12 Small Bear, #13 Funtastic. 50-cent Pick 4: 4-7-10-11-12 with 1-2-5-7-10 with 3-9 with 12-13 ($50).

1.5.2018

It doesn’t take long in sunny (though very, very cold) South Florida for a jackpot to build, and as I write this late Wednesday night, the elusive Rainbow 6 jackpot at Gulfstream Park is approaching a carryover in excess of $1 million. With that in mind, let’s take out first shot at the bet this year, though it surely won’t be our last. *** If you’re not familiar with the Rainbow 6, it’s a simple concept, but one that has brought a ton of excitement to Gulfstream the past several years, and for good reason, as it allows the bettor to chase a huge score, while also allowing some of us to put in a modest ticket in the hopes of a solid, if hardly spectacular, payoff. I fall in the latter, and will routinely play the best in the $40-$100 range, in the hopes of turning that into $800-$1,000. The bet itself is a 20-cent base minimum and the entire pool only gets paid out if there is one individual winner. If there are multiple winners, then 30% of the new money goes into the jackpot (carryover), while 70% of the new money is paid out to the wining tickets. *** Race 5: 35k MCL for 3yos going 5 furlongs on the turf It looks like a bit of a spread race to start off, as the proven runners don’t really inspire but are hard to separate, while first-time starter #6 SCRIBE will likely go favored. If the money shows on this Ward runner you can get bold and single, or at least key him, but the barn is off to slow 0-for-9 start at the meet and I’d like a little coverage to start things. So I’ll also use #1 BRAG DUDE, who needs pace help but really woke up cutting back to a turf sprint last time; #8 TENKOZ, who was dreadful in a trio of main starts on the dirt but does drop from the MSW ranks and gets Irad Ortiz; and #5 BLUE CHIP PROSPECT, who has been 2nd in three straight dirt starts and has Jose Ortiz up for his turf debut. Rainbow 6 horses (listed in order or preference): 6-1-8-5 Race 6: 30k N3L for 4up going 6 furlongs Another spread race where anyone with a big bankroll might hit the all-ball and hope for chaos, as it looks like it could happen. I can’t afford to go that deep, but I will use five of the seven, as #2 IZZZY THE WARRIOR should improve second-off the long layoff; #6 BORDINI was just a good 4th in a very fast race for the level; #3 VISIONARY RULER figures the inside speed for Navarro; #5 ATIZAPAN will be pressing the whole way and will get first run; and #4 MY FRIEND has dreadful recent form but does get Irad Ortiz and is 3-for-7 over the track and 0-for-9 everywhere else. Rainbow 6 horses: 2-6-3-5-4 Race 7: 50k MCL for 4up going 6 ½ furlongs We can’t go four and five-deep all day, but the good news is this looks like a spot to narrow down a bit, as #7 FLORIDA COTTON and #2 RIDE ON FAITH seem to get all the best of it here over a weak field, especially since they both take the biggest drop in racing and leave the MSW ranks for MCL foes. Both horses will relish the return to the main track after weak turf runs, have the speed to be close throughout and meet a group with a lot more questions than answers. Rainbow 6 horses: 7-2 Race 8: 30k N3L for 4upfm going 6 furlongs Every Rainbow 6 usually needs a single, or your ticket will be too big to be in the range we’re looking for, and we’ve got one in #7 MURRAY’S GIRL, who is by no means a lock, but seems best of a weak group, especially since she drew the perfect attack post for her pressing style. She did blow a big late lead last time, but the slight cutback will help, and the fact she drew outside means she shouldn’t have to do the dirty work on the lead today. Rainbow 6 horse: 7 Race 9: 50k MCL for 3yo fillies going 7 ½ furlongs on the turf A tough heat where we could have another Ward firster going favored, as #3 LA PIU BELLA has worked swiftly for this, drew well and doesn’t meet much, but winning at two turns on debut is never easy, so while I’ll use her, others rank higher. The list starts with #5 POINTEDLEE, who immediately goes to the turf after a middling 5th in her dirt debut, should love the green, as he’s by Point of Entry, and will relish the drop from the MSW ranks too. You can say all the same for #2 MISS ALIPHANT, who started twice on the dirt in NY against tons better and could really wake up here, especially if she shakes loose with the blinkers going on today. You have to use #1 CLOSE THE DEAL too, as she actually has some proven turf form, some speed, and has Irad Ortiz too, so if the above trio doesn’t like the green, she’ll be tough. Rainbow 6 horses: 5-2-1-3 Race 10: 16k/N1x for 4up Florida breds going 7 ½ furlongs on the turf If we’re fortunate enough to be alive in the finale, having a bit of coverage would be beneficial, so I’m going to use three of them, though you could make a case for three more too. It was pretty obvious #5 MATANZAS INLET needed his last, as it came off a 14-month layoff and he broke from the far outside post going a mile, which is the kiss of death, and the fact Jose Ortiz is named today says it’s go-time, so I’m expecting a big move forward. Todd Pletcher doesn’t claim many anymore, but he dips back in for #4 DRIVEN BY THUNDER, and for his original owner Mike Repole too, and I’m a huge sucker for the re-claim, so he’s a must-use. But there’s a lot more than just that angle, as his two turf runs—both with Pletcher—would be good enough to win this. It’s tough to knock #1 THORISTIC, and he drew best of all too, so he’s another who has to be used for a very sharp Dibona barn. I’m going to play against #7 Without Remorse, #8 Salute the Colonel and #9 Mai Ty One On, as, even though they all could win, their draws are horrible, as it’s a huge negative when you draw wide at this (silly) distance on the turf. Rainbow 6 horses: 5-4-1-7 The Ticket:
Race 5: 1, 5, 6, 8Race 6: 2, 3, 4, 5, 6Race 7: 2, 7Race 8: 7Race 9: 1, 2, 3, 5Race 10: 1, 4, 5, 7Ticket Cost: $128.00