Political soothsayer gives Dewhurst the edge

Larry Sabato of the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics has a new state-by-state analysis of U.S. Senate races today. His “Crystal Ball” political newsletter hints that we will soon be calling Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst by a new name: Senator. Here’s Sabato’s take on our state’s Senate contest.

Texas: Despite winning plaudits from elite Republican opinion makers, and endorsements from such Tea Party luminaries as Sens. Jim DeMint (R-SC), Mike Lee (R-UT) and Rand Paul (R-KY), it is beginning to look like ex-state Solicitor General Ted Cruz is outmanned against wealthy Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst in the race to replace the retiring Republican Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison. Dewhurst just has too much money and too much establishment support not to be considered a clear favorite in his race against Cruz and ex-Dallas Mayor Tom Leppert, who like Dewhurst is also personally wealthy. Perhaps Cruz or Leppert can advance to a primary runoff in May with Dewhurst if they can keep him under 50% in the initial round of voting in March. A number of other one-time candidates in the Republican primary have left this race. Former Lt. Gen. Ricardo Sanchez, the likely Democratic nominee and a one-time promising recruit, has not gotten any traction, although he has said he will not leave the race despite a fire that destroyed his San Antonio home. SAFE REPUBLICAN

Sabato mentions Dewhurst’s advantage of deep pockets and establishment support; to that, I would add significant name ID. In a state as large as Texas, that’s money in the bank.