Weather officials: Expect a cold, wet winter

Seth StapletonTribune StaffWriter

Published 8:31 am, Tuesday, October 24, 2017

UPPER THUMB -- It's going to be cold, and it's going to be wet.

In a conference call, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) officials recently provided the organization's official winter outlook. Their predictions call for below normal temperatures and above normal precipitation in the northern United States, while the southern part of the country will be warmer and drier.

NOAA said it is likely that the La Nina climate pattern will develop this winter, which lowers sea surface temperature in the central Pacific Ocean. La Nina has the opposite effect of El Nino, which brings warmer-than-normal sea surface temperatures in the same area of the Pacific Ocean.

For the United States, La Nina would reduce precipitation across much of the South, with limited increases to the north.

"If La Nina conditions develop, we predict it will be weak and potentially short-lived, but it could still shape the character of the upcoming winter," said Mike Halpert, deputy director of NOAA's Climate Prediction Center. "Typical La Nina patterns during winter include above average precipitation and colder than average temperatures along the Northern Tier of the U.S. and below normal precipitation and drier conditions across the South."

For the second year in a row, NOAA officials tabbed La Nina as the biggest wildcard in how this year's winter will shape up. La Nina has a 55-to-65 percent chance of developing before winter sets in.

NOAA's seasonal outlooks give the likelihood that temperature and precipitation will be above, near, or below-average, and also how drought is expected to change, but do not project seasonal snowfall accumulations. While the last two winters featured above-average temperatures over much of the nation, significant snowstorms still impacted different parts of the country. Snow forecasts are generally not predictable more than a week in advance because they depend upon the strength and track of winter storms.