Expected Bourassa byelection will be a better test

Senior political analyst Bernard St-Laurent says Bourassa riding is not a Liberal given

There will be a lot more at stake in what could be the next federal by-election than there was last night in the riding of Labrador.

Even though a victorious Yvonne Jones told her supporters in Happy Valley-Goose Bay, "I’m the first person in the country to beat the Harper government in a byelection," the Liberals performed as expected.

They won back what was a traditional Liberal riding in Newfoundland and Labrador. Opposition leader Tom Mulcair was unable to show growth in NDP support. And the Conservatives continued to struggle in that province on the federal level.

In all likelihood, the next by-election will take place in the Montreal riding of Bourassa where Denis Coderre is the sitting member of Parliament.

Coderre will announce on Thursday he’s entering the campaign to become the mayor of Montreal under the banner "Èquipe Denis Coderre pour Montréal."

During the least federal election in 2011, Coderre took 41 per cent of the vote in the north end riding of Bourassa. The NDP candidate finished second with 32 per cent and the Bloc Québécois finished third at 15 per cent.

While Coderre has represented the seat since 1997, it's not the Liberal stronghold that the riding of Labrador has been.

Bourassa has a fair-sized population that is neither French nor English. Manufacturing and the service sector make up the main industries in the riding.

The latest polls suggest new leader Justin Trudeau can rekindle the Liberal flame in Quebec. They also show the NDP is losing support while the Bloc is holding strong in its attempt to make a comeback.

The next federal election is scheduled for October 2015. The results in a Bourassa byelection could help set the momentum going into that vote.