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October 24, 2008

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On a conference call that reminds me a bit of those calls David Plouffe would hold in the primary to insist (accurately, it turns out) that Obama had already won, Obama aides told reporters that their position is extremely strong.

In particular, national field director Jon Carson made the case that he is already winning meaningfully in the early votes, and offered some statistics against the argument that these are people who would have voted early anyway and are just casting their ballots with extra enthusiasm.

"A higher percentage of our vote is new Democrats and we have a lot more new Democrats," he said, going over totals in North Carolina, Nevada, Florida and Iowa that seem to suggest that new and sporadic voters are voting at high rates.

That's a key claim, and I'll add Carson's numbers when I confirm the details.

UPDATE: The Obama campaign's numbers are after the jump.

TO: Interested Parties

FR: Jon Carson, Obama-Biden Campaign Field Director

RE: State of the early vote

DA: October 24, 2008

According to information from Secretaries of State from all over the country, Democrats are voting early at significantly higher rates than Republicans compared to 2004 and new and sporadic voting Democrats are voting early at higher rates than new or sporadic voting Republicans.

Below is the data on early voting I provided on the conference call earlier this afternoon.

Democrats are voting early at significantly higher rates than Republicans compared to 2004:

North Carolina – 2008 to date

All Votes By Party Registration

DEM

520,064

56%

REP

254,515

27%

UNA

155,476

17%

North Carolina – 2004 Final Early and Absentee Vote Numbers

All Votes By Party Registration

DEM

479,305

48%

REP

363,294

37%

UNA

149,632

15%

Nevada – 2008 to date

All Voting

Dem

107,122

53%

Repub

63,577

32%

Other

30,938

15%

Total

201,637

Nevada – 2004 Final Early and Absentee Vote Numbers

All Votes By Party Registration

DEM

147,408

45%

REP

135,743

41%

OTHER

45,211

14%

Iowa – 2008 to date

All Voting

Dem

132,882

50%

Repub

76,689

29%

Other

53,787

20%

Iowa – 2004 Final Early and Absentee Vote Numbers

All Voting

Dem

185,115

48%

Repub

118,167

30%

Other

86,071

22%

New Mexico – 2008 to date

All Voting

Dem

84,123

56%

Repub

49,145

33%

Other

16,484

11%

New Mexico – 2004 Final Early and Absentee Vote Numbers

All Voting

Dem

178,216

50%

Repub

132,505

38%

Other

42,461

12%

Colorado – 2008 to date

All Voting

Dem

184,352

39%

Repub

181,424

38%

Other

110,284

23%

Colorado – 2004 Final Early and Absentee Vote Numbers

All Voting

Dem

307,244

34%

Repub

384,642

42%

Other

221,336

24%

Florida – 2008 to date

All Voting

Dem

650,363

43%

Repub

651,700

43%

Other

225,980

14%

Florida – 2004 Final Early and Absentee Vote Numbers

All Voting

Dem

1,056,986

42%

Repub

1,097,616

43%

Other

386,367

15%

New and sporadic voting Democrats are voting early at higher rates than new or sporadic voting Republicans:

Colorado – 2008 to date

There are 233,878 new Democrats – 101,595 (43%) have requested mail in ballots.

There are 195,794 new Republicans – 70,248 (36%) have requested mail in ballots.

20% of all Democrats voting by mail have never voted in a general election before.

North Carolina – 2008 to date

There are 816,801 new Democrats – 70,561 (9%) have voted early.

There are 491,106 sporadic Democrats – 91,758 (19%) have voted early.

There are 533,490 new Republicans – 30,676 (6%) have requested mail in ballots.

I hope Barry's people aren't too confident. One of my daughters was polled the other day ... and she lied. She said she was going to vote for Obama. I suspect a lot of that is going on. People are tired of the polls and the poll stories, and they want to leave the pollsters and the media with egg on their faces. I also suspect that Obama forces are crowing so much in an effort to persaude undecideds to go for a "winner," i.e. Obama. I would not be surprised if Obama loses by more than McGovern did. Obama has an awful lot of baggage. An awful lot.

DO NOT BE COMPLACENT...There is still work to do...follow the Commander of this campaign..don't blow it out of control. Our Captain is a man of self control, visual thinking, intelligent and articulate..This is still a WAR..AGAINST THE SLEASY REPUBLICAN NATIONAL CORPORATION..SCHIMT, DAVIS AND THE DEVIL ROVE.

Gotta be careful with exit polls on election night. Remember how the early exit polls in '04 showed Kerry in the lead in key states? Rebuff that crap and just wait til the results get reported that night. Vote, no matter what happens!

Ben, you are speaking about the primarys. Don't try to fool the people, we have listened to Obama and others in the Obama Camp and we are not calling a WIN until after the elections on Nov.5, 2008. Whether you want to believe it or not, Democrats do listen to their leaders.

Hey, Ben, you and JMart did a great job carrying Drudge's detestible raicebaiting out to a wider audience. Slapping your stamp of approval on it.
I know you two don't have much in the way of integrity, but you should probably post some sort of apology for just drinking up that suspicious story and not doing any real journalism until after you had thrust fear of black men into the spotlight to help McCain.

Vanilla Ice: I suggest you visit YouTube where you can easily find a dozen videos documenting the foul behavior of McCain/Palin supporters. I noticed you were one to jump on the bandwagon of this race-bait. Your question about poor people is foolish. I know you think otherwise.

Vanilla Ice: I am the CEO of a company that employs close to a thousand people. Raising my taxes (yes it does make me feel patriotic)won't affect the number of people I employ one little bit, but may make the economy a little better down the line. So, I may not be a poor person employing someone, but I'm not going to stop employing them just because my taxes go up.

Is anyone listening to the new John McCain add? This is the best reason not to elect him that I have ever heard and it is coming from the man himself. He states he was tested when he sat in the cockpit of a jet on the USS Enterprise ready to attack the Russians during the Cuban Missle Crisis and this somehow shows his leadership. If he had gotten the word he wold have bombed and killed Russians who may have retaliated with Nuclear Weapons and he feels good about that. It wasn't that he would think about what was best to do for the United States or the world it was simply a matter of carrying out his orders damn the consequences. You can see this mentality of the military in the movie Fifteen Days in October. If Kenneedy had not been the president, our military would have gladly started a nuclear war in the hopes that we could win it.John McCain sitting up there in his jet was not thinking this might be a mistake, No, he was thinking give me the green light so I can get this war under way. Is this really who we want for president? I hope somebody in listening out there and holds him to task for this belief.

You're going to wait to confirm the details?
Cute. You didn't wait to confirm the details before driving the race-baiting Ashley Todd narrative, and you still have not issued a mea culpa.
In the absence of contradictory evidence, should I assume Ben Smith is a racist stooge?
Well, I'll wait to confirm the details.

Again, a warning to all Obama supporters! This election is not over until the very last vote is cast and counted on Nov 4th! Do not under any circumstance let down your guard or lower your level of work for Barack Obama and Joe Biden! I don't care if McCain himself gives up and conceeds the race! All Obama supporters keep working hard to Get Out The Votes for Barack Obama and Joe Biden! We do not rest until the last vote is counted! On Nov 5th we can then rest and will know qhat all Americans want! Stay strong! Stay supportive for Barack Obama! Just a little over a week left!
GOTV for Obama!
Obama Biden 08

To the idiots who constantly post Mclies about Obama:
1. You can find Obama's birth certificate all over the internet. You are an idiot to keep saying it even though it is abosultely not true. You should be ashamed of yourself.
2. WHEN PEOPLE ATTACK ACORN, IT SHOWS HOW STUPID THEY ARE. THERE IS NO VOTER FRAUD WITH ACORN. IT IS VOTER REGISTRATION FRAUD AND ACORN WAS THE VICTIM. A PERSON CANNO VOTE WITHOUT ID, SO THE INVALID REGISTRATIONS WILL NOT AFFECT ANY RACE. ANYONE WITH A BRAIN KNOWS THAT. I ASSUME YOU KNOW IT ISN'T TRUE, BUT YOU HOPE EVERYONE ELSE IS AS STUPID AS YOU ARE, SO YOU REPEAT IT.
MORONS!

Ben -- you don't need more time to "confirm" the claim made by a guy who's job it is to keep the momentum story at the top of news coverage.
Not when Gallup released this poll today of early voting:
October 24, 2008
Early Read on Early Voting, Could Reach 30%Obama and McCain supporters voting early at about the same rate
PRINCETON, NJ -- Gallup Poll Daily tracking data indicate that about 11% of registered voters who plan to vote have already voted as of Wednesday night, with another 19% saying they plan to vote before Election Day. Roughly equal percentages of Barack Obama supporters and John McCain supporters have taken advantage of the early voting opportunity -- so far.

Mr. Brian - so you defend the reporter who conjured up the "kill him" statement by rationalization? What is so hard about answering my question on being hired by a poor person? I am left to believe that you truly think tax "welfare" will indeed NOT create jobs. Convince me otherwise.

@Louie - instead of supporting higher taxes, why don't you pay your OWN employees more. Sounds like you don't care about the money. That way every $ makes it to the employee directly instead of middle man "government" keeping his share.

I got an E Mail today from the church stating that a vote for OBAMA is a vote for the Apopcalypse. IT goes on to state the Bible warns that a Muslim will be elected as President of the United States and this will profile the Bible proficy and end the world. The only hope we have is to cross up the Bible and God and vote McCain in. The sad thing is that there is a long list of people who have received and passed this E Mail on. I guess God is not as smart as he thought.

Average the polls in every state that has been taken within the last two weeks - Republican polls, Democratic polls and independent polls (I have lots of time on my hands - he he) - and average those polls in each state individually - and here are the irrefutable results (and there is no way you can spin this to mean anything else whatsoever, no matter whether your daughter lies to pollsters or not - he he). Obama is leading in Indiana, North Dakota, North Carolina and Florida. He is within striking distance in Montana, Georgia, West Virginia and even South Dakota. If Obama wins all of those states, he has MORE THAN 400 ELECTORAL VOTES! He only needs 270. If Obama LOSES EVERY SINGLE ONE OF THOSE STATES, HE STILL WILL HAVE WON 322 ELECTORAL VOTES! I do believe I hear the fat lady singing? Quite loudly, in fact!

We have to make sure that voters in PA, CO, OH and FL, wake up and are aware that John McCain and his corrupt Lobbying advisors, his corrupt Robber Baron Spsors and their lying talking noises are giving them their BS. And that's why McCain is opting for smallville to get votes, as they believe that those in Smallvile are gullible and will fall for their BS.

It is odd he'd come out and say this -- you'd think they'd want to keep their people motivated and diminish chances someone might decide to stay home. In any event, this is a really fascinating horse race, I love it!
But I'm a bit irritated by all those commentators who think the story about some woman who faked an attack requires Ben to respond or "apologize" for noting the story. Sheesh. Not only isn't it a big deal, but I'd rather read real campaign news and commentary.

I wouldn't get over-confident. The republics are so desperate I believe they will do anything to win. They've already lied and try to scare people. Don't put it past them to cheat us out of another election.

The liberal democrats have been the source of almost all the problems in the economy and other issues. The truth is slowly seeping through the liberal media. Hats off to Sarah who in 9 weeks has already stirred up Washington. Imagine what she will accomplish in 30 years. I've seen no positive change from Obama in his whole career and I can't imagine that's going to somehow change in the next 4 years.

Even Joe understands that it's not right to take a small tax cut if it comes from hard-working Americans profit. But Obama won't be giving any tax cuts. He will raise taxes on all AND raise our cost of living by really raising taxes a lot on corporations, who will pass on the cost to us.

Again, McCain shows he understands what it takes for long term growth and job security. Obama wants to just throw a band aid out there with another stimulus package, which does nothing after the first month or two.

Thanks, I'd love to see the numbers they have for new voters. I voted early for Obama yesterday and there was a guy in front of me who was a new voter and asked if I could help him. He told me the Obama people had registered him and convinced him to vote early. I told him to let the poll workers know that he was new and they would help him with the new electronic machines. When he signed in a cheer went up from the staff for another new voter.

Msnbc is trying to convince their viewers that McCain is going to win! They claim McCain will win Ohio, PA and Fla! Then one more state! This is why no Obama supporter can let down their guard! Get out there and show your support for Obama!
GOTV for Obama!
Obama Biden 08

Local news reporting that campaign worker attack was a hoax. "A Pittsburgh police commander told KDKA Investigator Marty Griffin that Ashley Todd confessed to making up the story & is facing charges" Accordinging to Andrew Sullivan: www.kdka.com/local/attack.McCain.Bloomfield.2.847628.html
Wondering JOE THE PLUMBER aslo another GOP October inplant?
We all know Joe the plumber ARIZONA registration Driving Licence suspended because he run away from Paying Fines in Arizona.State of Arizona had engaged the Debt Collectors to get the default from him.
I'm wondering weither these collected guys going to punch B on his face.

Anybody who claims that McCain understands the economy better than Obama does not understand the economy at all. To you, I suggest a simple macroeconomics course so that you can learn that the economy only works when people who spend money have money. Giving money to those with plenty of it does nothing...

Thanks for a reminder that the primary situation basically vindicated the Obama claim that it was over by the end of February. Despite the Clinton camp's recent efforts to revise the history, the Obama camp's repeated claim that she couldn't win and their sometimes stated and often implied claim that she wouldn't be able to resist going unfairly negative both turned out to be true. Same goes for the claims (vehemently (sp?) opposed by the Clintons) that he could re-draw the electoral map, that new swing states were emerging, and the he could win the general election without Ohio or Florida. The only way to reintroduce integrity into politics is for the media to hold the dissemblers to account whether they be the Clintons then or Hannity and Rove today. Without consequences, dishonesty tends to take root.

The arrogance of this campaign is so much like Bush when he was running. Look at where that got us. Are they kidding? It is amazing to me how in these times that they are so willing to toss this country into the hands of the inexperienced. Obama is so much like Jimmy Carter in all other ways except his arrogance is a Bush trait.. McCain still has a shot at this race. The people who do decide on the 4th may be a surprise to the Arrogance of this candidate campaign. I hope so... I am not wanting to spread the wealth.

Greedy, selfish people on this blog. I wished I earned the money you make. I would't hesitate to pay more taxes. Heck, when I earned $50,000 annually I thought I was rich. My taxes were still high under Bush. The economy still failed. Now Obama want's to tax higher income, and you rich, greedy folks are having a hissy fit. Bush has been our president for 8 years. Trillions of dollars wasted on a corrupted war. Trillions of dollars wasted on corruption at Wallstreet. Trillions of dollars profited by the oil companies more corruption. All equal to greed. All while Bush was the president. Bush cared about nothing except that stupid oil war! He is a war criminal!

Seems to me that BO should be further ahead with all the propaganda the press has given him. I wonder if his statement to Joe that he wants to spread the wealth around is having an impoact. Some of you have wealth. I don't so I will be sitting here for a handout from you. But I will vote McCain anyway (lesser of two evils). I am expecting a new car free of charge if Obama wins. LOL A depression will do a lot of you good. You will learn to appreciate things.

I dont want to damper dems enthusiam here, but for one, NC and Nev are the only ones that are exceeding 2004 numbers...If the media keep saying this is over, overall turnout is going to be depressed, and probably effect dems more because they have registration advantages. in Fact, Flordia dems have a 4% reg advantage, yet they are polling slower than they did 4 years ago when they lost by 5%
Further, there are 11 days of early voting for these trends to change. My guess, they will almost mirror the 2004 results

BEN: STOP ALREADY. THAT IS NOT WHAT PLOUFEE SAID. ARE YOU PURPOSELY TRYING TO SUPPRESS OUR TURNOUT OR GIVE MCACIN MORE DRAPERY HANGING METAPHORS. THE HILL REPORTED IT A LITTLE MORE BALANCED:
"Senior advisers to Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama on Friday said they are preparing for a ?dead heat? in several swing states but see a number of paths to get to the magic number of 270 electoral votes."
http://thehill.com/leading-the-news/obama-camp-outlines-path-to-victory-2008-10-24.html

1961 have you been there today in Kenya??? go look at the country in those days in the middle of no where-- then come back and tell me and remember this was 1961 also! What woman in her right mind at 18 years old and a smart intellegent only child also would go in her last days of giving birth run down to Kenya and a American to boot have a child in a very poor poor poor country in those days to have her first child??? McCain was not born on American soil hello but in the Panama Canal on a military base----hello---congress wavied it and so did Obama! So to be fair if I was born in other country but classifed by home as American can I get away with it also---in american house but on another soil!!! Give it a rest!

Obama steps away for a day and his campaign says something stupid like this. Apparently they forgot his don't get cokey speech a week back. Yes, it's a good sign, but it's not the end game. Let the people have their voices heard, unaffected by the campaigns, then pat yourselves on the back.

seatac,who do you think you're fooling?you probably work at the Cinnabon in the food court at seatac. I say the most you have ever earned is 12,000 tops and get a nice tax rebate every year.
Posted By: | October 24, 2008 at 04:59 PM
Wrong! I worked as an Human Resources Manager,in Louisiana, $52,000 30 years career employee. Now, what about Bush being a war criminal?

oscar97 - I am sure it is an honest mistake, but perhaps you should look over those numbers one more time. The 2008 numbers are for votes cast thus far, while the 2004 numbers are total early votes cast. The way things are going, the early vote totals for this year are going to blow away the totals from 2004 (still 10 more days of early voting). However, those are not the numbers that matter the most. The most significant numbers are those that show new and sporadic democratic voters voting early. There has always been some doubt that these people would show up at all. Now it looks as though they are indeed showing up in considerable numbers. This is gearing up to be a massive landslide. But hey, you could be right. After all, all the democrats could stop voting tomorrow. So here that everyone? Get out and vote!

I am waiting for the night of the election! I was just told by two friends that they were going with McLame, Then they tried to convince me that Obama was down in the polls! I guess the look I gave was too much for them! I really hate it when people tell me stuff like that just to get a reaction! Yes, my two ex friends thought it was very funny to trick me like that! Michigan is too blue for me to worry anyways! We still have Obama ads and we get Chicago TV here too! When this is over, I might be looking for suggestions to give them a pay back!
GOTV for Obama!
Obama Biden 08

The diabolical Dr. Obama closes his eyes to the ugly writhings of the slavish dog-men, the obamacrats, his ostensible supporters. His organizational gifts have spawned a new Socialist-Revolutionary Party made up of shadowy syndicalists and drastic worshippers. In the confines of his cellophane-shrouded Gumby Bus his eyes dart toward the hideous veranda of his estate. Up in the rain-darkened mists the dreaded rifle-women prowl, eager to destroy his simpering beast-men with ferocious volleys of gunfire from their weapons. As he clenches his fists, fresh shots ring out and several dog-men drop from the clashing rocks over the Gulf of Surprise.

Because when our govenor was running she promised no new taxes. When she found out she had won, her statement was We'll I didn't mean no taxes at all!" Well we in Washington State have been hit with so many new taxes it's unbelievable. I feel that she lied to us on this issue.