Main => General Discussion => Topic started by: KeyDate1/2ozPandas on April 25, 2017, 11:54:22 PM

Anyone planning on attending Central States Show at Renaissance Schaumburg Hotel. I am set up at table 615 if you decide to come. I think it is going to be a great show if you are a buyer, last two weeks collectors were selling aggressively large lots ($20K+) due to tax time or high gold price and I think a lot of new material will hit the floor. I already pre-arranged buys with 7 sellers, which is a lot more than normal in the last few years, in 2010 and 2011 having 10+ prearranged deals was common, lately 2-3 is great.

300 dealer booths, close to 500 dealers (many tables are shared, like one I am at, but counts as one booth).

I had strong feeling this week that this was going to be a great show and today was dealer set-up and professional investor preview ($125 admission fee). Simply put it was like 2011 all over again. Ironically the first coin show I set up at was the 2011 Central States show and it was crazy buying and selling back then. Today was no different, I can't remember the last time I bought and sold to so many different players on dealer set-up day and the night before, opportunities around every corner and every phone call asking will you be at the show. Today was the third highest grossing show day (add the buys and sells) I have had since 2012, with Long Beach Sept-2011 being 1st and ANA Aug-2011 being second. Just the deals that I participated in, witnessed or bid on I would estimate at least $400K in gold panda changed hands among dealers and investors today. Tomorrow I already have $120K planned just on my end and I have feeling total numbers tomorrow might be similar today.

Couple of insights that may not be obvious to everyone:

1) Something clicked in early April and flood gates of selling have opened, I have never seen so much urgency to sell rare and common gold pandas by collectors and investors.a) Part of it is tax time, I know people had great year in 2016 and many took profits after trumps win and April 18th they had to pay up on those capital gains. b) A second factor which I believe is playing out is CDN greysheet.com issued the first gold panda buy/ask monthly newsletter goldsheet and gave it for free at March 30 Baltimore show to all dealers and to all their subscribers. While many of the prices were flawed in that first issue (they have been fixed for the May issue) it potentially opened US coin collectors eyes on current values for bullion panda coins from mid 90s and those owners went to shows and shops and dumped their bullion pandas for 100-1000% over melt. I am really interested to see if this selling into the market continues.

2) Who is the strongest buyer has shifted over the years. In 2011 it was entirely collectors, today it is dealers making master sets or controlling key coins for master sets.

a) For 1oz, yearly sets in NGC 69 and NGC 70 - retail buyers are strongest buyers by a little bitb) For 1/2oz and OMP yearly sets in 68+ condition - master set buyers are strongest buyers by farc) For 1/4oz in any condition - it depends, for semi-rare to rare master set buyers, for NGC 69 retail by a little bitd) For 1/10oz and 1/20 in any condition - very little to no demand from dealers or retail, unless it is key coin like 83 1/20, 98 1/20, 00 1/20, 95 1/10, 98 1/10, 02 1/10, 06 1/10. There was time when they were building series 1/10 sets in China, that has stopped, which has removed all demand for these coins. Maybe it is buying opportunity, maybe it is value trap, hard to say.

3) Many US dealers are now setting up in HK at Heritage and Stacks shows in April, June, August and December, and after a very successful April show they are flush with money and short on inventory, which means they need to buy, buy, buy. When dealers need to buy, it creates opportunity to buy from collectors at strong prices making them happy.

4) The quality of OMP has deteriorated during this cycle, I saw a lot of bad quality OMP in dealer hands today, I don't mind paying up for 69 quality coins, but 67-68 material at 69 prices doesn't make sense and I passed on several lots today that I really wanted to buy but knew the coin had no 69 potential. Other dealers didn't care about the quality as they have plan to sell it off in HK. On a similar note, dealers have cut their submissions to grading companies down significantly, since large volume transactions require one to sell inventory faster than during slow periods.

5) Markets can change on a dime, when dealers have too much money on the sidelines they are buying aggressively, when they are broke (typically Nov-Jan when new issues come out or when banks stop ordering master sets) they won't touch anything unless it is deeply discounted. If you are investor you need to be on the opposite side of what dealers are doing if you want to be successful, of course that takes a lot of guts to step up and buy when prices are falling, it is easy to buy when prices are rising. I bought many coins today that I don't plan to sell for several years and it is quite possible I bought them too expensive, but at same time when the markets are cheaper there is nothing rare to buy, buying $10K of coins at market bottom doesn't do much for you if you have $100K to invest at that point in time. Buy when you can, Sell when you can, rather than when you want is my favorite saying for rare collectibles and excellent real estate.

If you can't make it to this show, definitely try for Long Beach, assuming market remains strong.