Mark,
The really silly argument is that bears are pessimists! The fact is that both bulls and bears can be really stupid!
Chadin CO

11:21 am January 23, 2012

BLC wrote :

If humans are geneticlly predisposed to anticipate a bull market, they will have a tendency to buy equities, which creates that bull market. Hence, the positive bias that markets have over the long haul.

11:29 am January 23, 2012

BIll wrote :

BLC: While a postive bias does exist, the real reason that the markets have risen over the long haul is because of increased earnings over time, not the positive bias. As an example, compare McDonalds earnings in 2011 vs. 1970.

1:48 pm January 23, 2012

Wait, What? wrote :

when discussing stock market returns, one would do well to assess such returns in inflation adjusted terms, which, since the 1970s, have been mediocre. To the uneducated eye the real reason to be bullish is because inflation will keep prices moving higher and the value of the dollar moving lower. It doesn't take a bull or a bear to see that.

First, the average individual investor is a long-only investor. Second, the mechanics of actuating a bearish stance, whether through a future or option trade structure, or worse yet, an actual short in an issue, exceed the sophistication of that average Joe. These are two reasons the bearish analysis is unwelcome.

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