I figure this thread would get started sooner or later so i figure I'll start one. As someone who has only been following the sport for just under two years(Although a lot of people who meet me think otherwise do to the amount ive researched some of the history of the sport) and certainly no expert handicapper, i figure the best way to tackle the derby is to just make my selections right away. If they come in, great, if not, no harm done. I don't bet enough to do any harm. This is just such a great race to take a chance on as you never know whos gonna like the distance, get a good trip, etc.

So heres what I plan to play on Saturday, I'm sure you'll all think im nuts, but whatever.

Not sure why I like Cowtown Cat so much, but Jara seems to show up in the big ones, and it wouldn't shock me if one of the Pletcher underdogs scores at a price. However, I'm certain this will be wrong. Good Luck to all.Keith

If you throw out the 108 that Street Sense earned at the BC (those are always over-rated, IMHO), no horse has a Beyer higher than 103 and there are VERY few over 100 - 10, if my count is correct.

Part of that may be due to Polytrack, but this is still a pretty slow group. Probably no BC Classic winners will come out of the Derby this year.

STREETSENSE could very well be a super horse, we won't know till its time to put on the tavern shoes on saturday night. if he wins the derby, and it is his to loose; he lives at CD, trains like a fright train on the stretch, and sleeps in his home hay the night before, listening to the same birds he has listened to for the past months and seeing the same squirrels he has seen since the spring started. Curlin, likewise could be something special, noone knows his top.

Barring massive amounts of bad racing luck, injuries, or the like, there are only two horses that can win this Derby: Street Sense and Curlin.

If I can get even money by betting them both to win (what are the chances both will encounter severe misfortunte? Less than 50%, methinks)--that is, if they're both 3-1, or one is 2-1 and the other 4-1 and I bet 5 units on the former and 3 units on the latter, or other such ratios that project to a net return of 100%--the farm is going up for mortgage and I'm enrolling in school to get some more student loans and maybe forgoing buying a motorcycle and using that money and...

Also, I think the horse that the Guid is on has a shot to pick up the pieces and land a bomber super or tri.

Barring massive amounts of bad racing luck, injuries, or the like, there are only two horses that can win this Derby: Street Sense and Curlin.

If I can get even money by betting them both to win (what are the chances both will encounter severe misfortunte? Less than 50%, methinks)--that is, if they're both 3-1, or one is 2-1 and the other 4-1 and I bet 5 units on the former and 3 units on the latter, or other such ratios that project to a net return of 100%--the farm is going up for mortgage and I'm enrolling in school to get some more student loans and maybe forgoing buying a motorcycle and using that money and...

Also, I think the horse that the Guid is on has a shot to pick up the pieces and land a bomber super or tri.

i would have to agree, we all keep looking past these two like there on welfare or something. look into the possibilty of getting better value from these two by betting a daily double, oaks/derby. i am takin goff work tommorrow to go to the OTb to specifically make DD bets on SS, just to get the value. RTR is all that, i am told. i am told she is the best horse pletcher has, colt or filly. he was going to run rags in the derby, but the owneers have 2 in the derby already as i read pletcher say. th e owners are old fashioned, keep the boys and girls seperate.

i would have to agree, we all keep looking past these two like there on welfare or something. look into the possibilty of getting better value from these two by betting a daily double, oaks/derby. i am takin goff work tommorrow to go to the OTb to specifically make DD bets on SS, just to get the value. RTR is all that, i am told. i am told she is the best horse pletcher has, colt or filly. he was going to run rags in the derby, but the owneers have 2 in the derby already as i read pletcher say. th e owners are old fashioned, keep the boys and girls seperate.

There are two horses from CA (one from Baffert and the other from O'Neill) with stalker/presser speed. Anna should be clear by over a length setting leisurely fractions unless one of these two decides to run with her. Other than that, everyone is a stalker/closer, including Rags to Riches.

She's the lone speed, with a victory over the track in the same fashion and against many of the same horses, and is in peak form. I very well may be wrong, but I think it's the only bet that presents itself in that race. And here's the kicker: if I win, I'm parlaying the _entire_ thing into this: Street Sense, Curlin / Street Sense, Curlin / Imawildandcrazyguy trifecta, a Street Sense, Curlin / Street Sense, Curlin / all / Iamawildandcrazyguy superfecta, and the rest to win on both Street Sense and Curlin.

I am not sure what you consider PEAK form but I need to see peak form on the track.She now has to face a 2 time G1 winner who very well maybe a superstar.I also don't see Curlin hitting the board.The horse is going to wilt under the pressure.

I am not sure what you consider PEAK form but I need to see peak form on the track.She now has to face a 2 time G1 winner who very well maybe a superstar.I also don't see Curlin hitting the board.The horse is going to wilt under the pressure.

After you've seen it on the track, the horse will no longer be in peak form and therefore perhaps be in declining form and not worth a bet in the following race. Additionally, if you've already seen the horse having great races, the odds are so low that you will lose money in the long run and shouldn't bet him/her anyway.

I look for horses for whom I can project improved performance; that is, for clues hidden to most people's eyes that indicate the horse is worth far greater than the past performances and consequently the odds say he/she is worth.