Saturday, March 14, 2009

On Friday we saw the amount of available bids shrink dramatically and we saw at least one bid stealer develop with both Dayton and Xavier falling in the A-10 semis. Virgina Tech, Florida, and South Carolina all lost games that will cost them tourney bids, while Maryland and SDSU may have punched their tickets with big wins. Here is how we see the field going into the weekend...

If we had to put a number on it we think that there are 4 bids still in question. All of the teams on the last 4 in line are still vulnerable, while everyone above them (the 10 line and better) are relatively safe.

SDSU held on against BYU to reach the MWC final. In the past two days, they have seen their RPI climb to all the way to 31. If the Aztecs lose to Utah in the MWC final they will have to sweat it out on Sunday. They still only have two Top 50 wins plus losses to St. Mary's and Arizona on their resume. It wouldn't be unthinkable for the Aztecs to be left out if they don't win the auto bid, especially if there are anymore bid stealers.

Maryland got into the bracket on the strength of their win over Wake Forest. The win sent their RPI up 10 points to 50 and gives them the chance to lock up a bid against Duke. So long as the Terps put up a good effort against the Blue Devils, it's tough to envision the committee not giving them a bid as the 7th best team out of the ACC.

Penn State hung onto a bid in our current field despite their blowout loss to Purdue. The Nittany Lions are clearly the #8 team from the Big Ten, which we have said for weeks is not a good place to be. They have six Top 50 wins on their resume, which is more than anybody else in consideration and finished above .500 in Big Ten play. They even have road wins over Michigan State and Illinois. The problem is that all of their Top 50 wins (Top 100 for that matter) came in conference and they blew a chance to lock up a bid at Iowa last week. They laid an egg on Friday against a red-hot shooting Purdue team and will now have to hope things hold throughout the weekend and no more bid stealers pop up.

Our last team in is St. Mary's, barely. Scheduling another game against Eastern Washington looks like it may pay off. It didn't hurt their RPI and the 20-point win on Friday night gives the committee another look at them, as opposed to their season ending on Monday with a blowout loss to Gonzaga. All week we liked Creighton ahead of the Gaels, but that changed with the results of Friday night. Dayton losing completes an absolute disaster week for Creighton. Not only has the bubble gotten squeezed, but all of the Bluejays' good OOC wins have lost. New Mexico lost to Wyoming, George Mason got blown out by VCU to drop out of the RPI Top 50, and now Dayton lost - giving Creighton ZERO Top 25 wins. St. Mary's, on the other hand, has benefited from SDSU playing so well, and they've seen Utah State (another team they beat) also climb into the Top 25 of the RPI. The Gaels also got some of their wins away from home (neutral vs SDSU and Providence). The biggest issue in all of this is the fact that the Gaels are 18-2 when Patty Mills has played the whole game. We think their bad road losses without Mills will get overlooked and, so long as no more bid stealers pop up, they will get a bid.

Here's what the bubble team fans needs to hope for in Saturday's action: Memphis over Tulsa, LSU over Mississippi State, Tennessee over Auburn, Duke over Maryland in a blowout, ASU over USC, Temple over Duquense, Utah over SDSU, Utah State over Nevada, and most importantly - Missouri over Baylor. The potential of 4-5 more bid stealers still exists, so nobody on the last 4 in line is safe.

Our next and final bracket will be published on Sunday afternoon. Enjoy the weekend and good luck to your bubble team.

203 comments:

I don't think Penn State is deserving over San Diego State, St. Mary's, Creighton, or Arizona. Yes, they have more Top 50 wins, but I think the committee will consider many of them mediocre vs. the mess that is the Big 10 (Does anyone really see Illinois without Frazier, Purdue, Minnesota, or Michigan playing past the first weekend?).

I'm not bashing the Big 10 at all. Michigan St. has legitimate title hopes and the league is very strong top-to-bottom to rival the ACC and Big East. The Nittany Lions have ZERO non-conference wins they can hang their hat on though. Half (11) of their wins came against RPI teams 200+ and their best non-conference win is Mt. St. Mary's at #119.

I think any of those four teams should get at-large bids over Penn State or that Nevada, Baylor, USC, Temple/Duquesne, Maryland, or Auburn ends up winning heir conference tourneys and stealing another bid or two.

I am a Michigan fan, and would love to see the Big 10 get 8, but PSU hurt itself by not scheduling anyone out of conference, and if they dont get selected they have only themselves to blame for an embarrassing Out of Conference sched.

As for Maryland, can't say enough about Gary Williams..if they fire him they are insane. Well done Maryland.

Should be a fun weekend, hopefully some of these bid stealers like Baylor, Miss. St, Tulsa lose. It looks like the A10 is going to get 3 bids.

I think the Big 10 is safe at 7, every analyst including B101 is predicting 7.

However, I would select PSU over Minny. Minnesota loaded up on cupcakes, with one solid win. They are a team with an elite coach and a little better program than PSU no excuse to schedule that weak. PSU has many more top wins in conference than Minny.

I just don't see Penn State in. Their raw RPI kills them. They scheduled this year like Syracuse did in both '08 and '07. And the two marginally good teams they did play non-conference - Temple and Rhode Island - both beat them. All those top 50 wins, including the road win over Michigan State, which is definitely a highlight get canceled by a 68 RPI ranking and the bad OOC slate. And I say this as a Penn State fan. Too bad both of my teams - Penn State and New Mexico - bit it this week, but it is what it is.

Missouri still might be ahead of FSU even if they lose to Baylor. We have FSU seeded higher than most people, but their conference resume is simply not as strong as Missouri's. FSU's best ACC wins were against Clemson, while Mizzou's best Big XII wins came against Oklahoma and Kansas (plus they won at Texas and beat Oklahoma State twice).

The best hope for FSU fans that want a 3 seed is to have Syracuse get blown out today. The Orange deserve a 3 seed at this point, but we wouldn't be surprised if they ended up on the 4 line. Villanova is still ahead of Syracuse on the S-curve since they beat the Orange twice.

Wake Forest is (and will be) ahead of FSU even if the 'Noles win today because of their superior record vs. good teams. Wake is 3-1 vs. the Top 25 (FSU is 0-5) and 6-1 vs. the Top 50 (FSU is 4-5). The Demon Deacons also finished ahead of FSU in conference and beat them head-to-head (by 23 points) in their lone meeting.

We wanted to put Marquette on the 7 line, but we couldn't for numbers purposes. Still, we don't mind having them there because they have been in an absolute tailspin without Dominic James. They've lost five of their last six games, and finished 4-6 in their last 10. The Golden Eagles OOC resume isn't all that great either, especially compared to Texas'.

When you look at Arizona's wins, it looks like it would be impossible to keep them out. Unfortunately for the Wildcats, they have two big negatives on their resume that may ultimately prove to be fatal - their atrocious true road record (2-9) and their bad finish (they've lost 5 of 6). St. Mary's, with Patty Mills back, is gaining momentum at the end of the year, wile Arizona is trying to pull off a classic back-in. We think the committee will side with the hotter (and more dangerous) team and give St. Mary's the nod.

Does anyone else think it's totally BS that St. Mary's got to schedule another game after their season is over. What is this nonsense?!? Couldn't Davidson and New Mexico play each other too in order to get another top 100 win? Why not Penn St. vs. Providence? Also, who gives a **** that St. Mary's beat a sub 500 RPI 200+ team from the big sky. If I were in the committee I would punish them for that win not support them.

Those teams could schedule those games if they hadn't hit the limit yet. Washington scheduled their game against Seattle for the last week of the season after a December game was canceled due to weather. I can't remember who they were supposed to play - Coppin State?

What St. Mary's did was legit, but I can't say a win over EWU would necessarily help their profile.

Lunardi is nuts, HE HAS ST. MARY'S AND CREIGHTON IN OVER PSU??!!! WOW NO WAY JOE ...

Heaven forbid we give top mid-majors a chance and instead reward another eight-place team a big conference. Hell, let's just wipe out all the mid-majors, you know, who never advance past the first round or anything, so that we can rename it the BCS Conference Invitational.

12:50 are you implying the Big Ten isn't a mid-major conference? I kind of assumed they were considering the small number of final fours and national championships they have won over the past 30 years...

It's hard to say without making a similar list for the ACC, Big East, B12, SEC and P10, but it seems like the B10 has done just fine the last 30 years. I'm sure not as impressive as the ACC, butrespectable I'd say.

"12:50 are you implying the Big Ten isn't a mid-major conference? I kind of assumed they were considering the small number of final fours and national championships they have won over the past 30 years..."

I really hope that was sarcasm, otherwise you just sound stupid. Final Fours and titles since 1979:

2000: Vanderbilt out <--- Since this year, I've been convinced that "conferences don't get bids, teams do," is only a half-truth. Arkansas surprisingly won the SEC tournament that year, and I figure Vanderbilt was the team that paid for it.

I don't know if any of you guys are watching the MSU/LSU game, but it's a good one. I haven't seen MSU before, but they look like a team that could be potentially dangerous in the tournament (guys who can create their own shots, a paint patrolman). Anyway, if they win this semi and lose in the final, they are still out right?

I don't know if any of you guys are watching the MSU/LSU game, but it's a good one. I haven't seen MSU before, but they look like a team that could be potentially dangerous in the tournament (guys who can create their own shots, a paint patrolman). Anyway, if they win this semi and lose in the final, they are still out right?

Also, I'm guessing Utah State is out with a loss to Nevada. Or not?

MissState has to win the tournament.Utah State...if its a close loss(4 points or less) I think will still be in.

The last few years, the tournament has gone mostly according to scratch (4 # 1's last year in the final 4, 3 the year before that). With all the upsets we are seeing this week, it strikes me that this year's tournament is likely to be much more wide open. Thoughts?

The last few years, the tournament has gone mostly according to scratch (4 # 1's last year in the final 4, 3 the year before that). With all the upsets we are seeing this week, it strikes me that this year's tournament is likely to be much more wide open. Thoughts?

we hear this EVERY year... if the 1's show up, theyll win, if not, they wont..

Wouldn't surprise me if Kansas got a 2 or 3. Definitely don't deserve a 2 though. Depends how the committee looks at them. Are they the #1 or #2 or #3 team from the Big 12. To me, they #2. If Mizzou wins the Big 12, they may be #3 from the Big 12.

Think FSU locked up a 4 seed. 3 seed will be tough. That's FSU first win over a top 25 team. Most sites still have FSU as a 5 seed. And UNC didn't have Lawson. If Syracuse and Mizzou win today, I don't think FSU can be a 3 seed.

Think FSU locked up a 4 seed. 3 seed will be tough. That's FSU first win over a top 25 team. Most sites still have FSU as a 5 seed. And UNC didn't have Lawson. If Syracuse and Mizzou win today, I don't think FSU can be a 3 seed.

Everyone is so hung up on arbitrary numbers... Sure, only 1 against top 25, but they have 2 wins over the #26 team... and alot of fsu's value comes from the fact that they now have 6 top 50 wins, and no bad losses... i mean, look at their losses...RPI rankings used...#1, #2, #2, #3, #10, #55, #62, and #72.... FSU is 23-3 outside of the RPI top 10.

Top 25 is not arbitrary. The committee uses record versus 1-25, 1-50, 50-100, etc. That is anything but arbitrary. It's using what the committee uses. If you put FSU side by side with Syracuse right now, Syracuse currently has the better resume. That's not really worth arguing if you can't see that.

I've been looking at FSU's profile. And even if they win the ACC tourney, I don't think they're ahead of Kansas either. And if Mizzou wins the Big 12 tourney, I don't think FSU can be ahead of them.

Wait, its not arbitrary? Your saying that there is a totally objective reason to say that a win over the #25 team is a great win, where a win over the #26 team is just a good win? No, sorry, your wrong... Kansas has 2 losses vs teams outside of the top 100(including a terrible loss to UMass), FSU has none outside the top 75, and with the UNC win, Fsu has the best win between the 2, and kansas has 2 losses worse than FSU's worse loss, including a waxing at TTU, and a waxing at arizona... Kansas has a couple more top 50 wins in several more oppurtunities, but remember that one of those top 20 wins is Siena, who was never considered a tournament lock, and another is 10-loss OSU, plus 11-loss tennesee... And another of their top 50 wins is Temple, who will not get an at large bid... Alot of kansas' wins are extremely overrated.

Mizzou would likely be ahead of FSU with a win tonight, but if FSU beats duke tomorrow they should pass mizzou, FSU will be tourney champions of the best conference in the country...

"Wait, its not arbitrary? Your saying that there is a totally objective reason to say that a win over the #25 team is a great win, where a win over the #26 team is just a good win? No, sorry, your wrong... "

It's not arbitrary to the extent (as was said earlier) that this is the information that the committee ACTUALLY uses to decide who makes the tourney and where they're seeded. For those of us interested in what WILL happen, not what SHOULD happen (using whatever contrived criteria a person wants to dream up), the difference is significant.

Some people are still saying Michigan is on the bubble as of right now. I think it is safe enough to say that they are lock to make the big dance for the first time in over a decade. However, there is a huge variance in the projected seeds all of the internet for Michigan. I personally see them as a 10 seed, but I've seen them as low as an 8 and as high as 12. What seed do you predict they will end up with B101?

"For those of us interested in what WILL happen, not what SHOULD happen (using whatever contrived criteria a person wants to dream up), the difference is significant."

Well said. I'm most interested in predicting the future behavior of the committee. If the committee behaves as it has in the past, FSU most likely cannot get higher than a 4 seed even if they win the ACC tourney. Especially if Maryland is their opponent tomorrow. They just don't have the top flight wins. Now, whether this is right or whether it actually happens or not is another thing entirely. I think by judging past decisions of the committee, it seems that Kansas, Wake, Nova and then either Cuse or Mizzou will be #3's. Hell, the committee may even give Arizona State a #3 if they win the Pac-10 although I don't think they deserve it. Same could be said if Illinois wins the Big 10 although Purdue is pasting them now.

Don't get upset FSU fans. Most folks aren't rooting against your team, just trying to honestly conclude what the committee would do with them based on past committee decisions.

It's not arbitrary to the extent (as was said earlier) that this is the information that the committee ACTUALLY uses to decide who makes the tourney and where they're seeded. For those of us interested in what WILL happen, not what SHOULD happen (using whatever contrived criteria a person wants to dream up), the difference is significant.

I cant believe that the committee is so narrowminded that they would not see that FSU has 2 wins against the 26th ranked RPI team, and use those as simple, run of the mill top 50 wins... And i dont think you think they will either, its really a technicality. Clemson was 11th ranked both times FSU played them, they are clearly a quality team... Im sure youd like it if the clemson wins were viewed as top 50 instead of honorary top 25 wins, but clemson falling out of the top 25 rpi wise hasnt seemd to hurt FSU's seed on this website, nor should it have.

The chairman said it takes into consideration who you beat, and where(clemson twice, once on the road, UNC on a neutral court, cal(neutral), Cincy(neutral), Western Kentucky(neutral)FSU has 3 top 50 wins on a neutral court, and another 1 on the road.

Dont forget, also, that kansas lost early in their conference tourney, and lost 2 of their last 3 games, to the 60th ranked RPI team, and to the 120th ranked RPI team, where FSU has wojn 9 of 12, including 3 top 26* wins(2 away from home), and sweeps of VT and clemson...

"How is beating possibly the best #3 seed on a neutral court better than beating a #2 seed on your own home court?"

I think I know what you mean. You're right. However, the beat down going on the court right now will be more than enough to have Purdue higher on the S-curve. And Illinois is sputtering a bit here at the end of the season. If they lose today, they'll have lost 3 of 4.

Having seen Purdue and Illinois a bunch this year, when healthy, Purdue is the better team. They've had injury issues off and on most of the season. It's pretty close though. I'd put them both right around a 5/6.

"2000: Vanderbilt out <--- Since this year, I've been convinced that "conferences don't get bids, teams do," is only a half-truth. Arkansas surprisingly won the SEC tournament that year, and I figure Vanderbilt was the team that paid for it."

I'm guessing that happened because that SEC title game was on Sunday at like 1. By the end of that game (at about 3:00) the bracketing process is underway, including trying to follow all of the bracketing principles. At that time, the "easy" option may have been to just swap 1 SEC team for another.

The Big 12 moved their title game to Saturday night this season (like the big east started doing about 10 years ago) in an effort to get the result to be more meaningful for the committee. There have been years where Big Ten title games appeared to have no significance in seeding (since the game always ends as the bracketing process is underway).

Just my take... any other opinions on that? If i was a conference, I would much rather finish up on Saturday.

I agree that Penn State should not get a bid. They had only 1 quality win outside of conference and their schedule New Hampshire, NJIT, Sacred Heart, Wm & Mary and a loss to Rhode Island. Pretty pathetic. Creighton's resume is about as good and I would prefer to see more mid-majors rather than also rans from the bigger conferences. Get more money into the smaller conferences and there will be much better balance.

B101, Terps are still ok right? That game was plenty tight and if Duke wasn't unconscious from three (plus the regular ACC treatment for a non Carolina team) they could've easily won that game. From a smell test perspective when you watch MD ply they look like a top 30-35 team and have for the last month. Right?

Please explain how those numbers "speak for themselves"? By the way, those numbers give the Big East the benefit of current membership, which gives them Final Fours and titles from Louisville, DePaul and Cincinnati. Considering the Big East is almost 50% larger than the Big Ten, not sure you can make any argument from that breakdown other than that the ACC, Big East and Big Ten are clearly above the other "power" conferences.

I am so sick of everyone dogging the Big Ten every year...and then when one or two of the teams make a late run and make it to the Elite 8 and the Final Four...everyone is always shocked when it happens. Wisconsin and MSU's last visits to the Final Four for example. Im a Michigan man and I dont believe that the conference deserves eight...two out of three between Wisky, PSU, and the Gophers should decide that with in my mind giving the edge to Minn and Wisc. PSU played way too many cupcakes including losses against two cupcakes in the non-con. Wait and see how the next two weeks unfolds...I guarantee two out of the seven that get in will make it to the elite 8. MSU, Purdue, OSU have the best chances but if Blue gets hot...they can win two games the first weekend and have a shot to make it far themselves. Havent you people realized yet that they call it March Madness for a reason...once the conference season begins...its so hard to compare teams from different conferences unless they have mutual opponents from the non-con...and for that matter how much better or worse a team gets throughout the season...and the tourney depends more on matchups more than how good a teams RPI is for them to continue on...Im so sick of people bagging on the Big Ten...WF, Maryland, and FSU all have the potential to get bounced first round and every team that makes it from the SEC this year could be bounced after Friday also...we will see what happens...but I dont want to read all the IM SHOCKED posts when a "so-called" non deserving "mid-major" team from the BigTen goes deep in the tourney...it wont be a shock to the true Mens CBB fan. GO BLUE!!

Meh. As a Cuse fan, the more I look at it and think about it, Cuse is probably not a 3 seed unless they win tonight. If they wouldn't have been swept by Nova, they'd have a lot better shot. As it is, I think Nova will be a 3. I know B101 has Kansas as a 4, and I would enjoy seeing that and think it's deserved. However, I have a bad feeling the committee will reward their regular season title with a 3 seed. If Mizzou wins, they'll be a 3. If Mizzou loses, then there'll be 2 three seeds left for some combination of Wake, Syracuse, and Florida State.

The committee will penalize Syracuse for being 6th in their conference in the regular season even though they'll have the best computer numbers and best combination of wins of the 3. Wake finished above FSU and also beat them like a drum in the regular season. I think the last 3 seed goes to Wake in most scenarios (even if FSU wins tomorrow).

If Syracuse wins tonight (I'm not counting on it), they've got to be a 3.

...WF is going to be a 3, FSU a 3 or 4, and maryland a 12, i dont think you can lump them together, especially when your wrong.

WF is only going to be a 3 because of their early game resume...do you know nothing of this team? They havent played up to their potential in years...FSU would have been beat down by a dozen today if Ty Lawson was playing...Danny Green gets so many open looks because of his penetration...to be honest with you...I think the Terps...if they hold onto a bid...are the best team out of the three when clicking on all cylinders. They have beat UM and MSU in non-con and prolly would have beat Duke today if they werent out of their mind from 3. Furthermore, the Terps are the more tourney tested team out of the three...but again we will see...oh and Northwestern destroyed FSU this year...chew on that.

how come everyone forgets penn state finished 6th in the Big Ten (which was really a tie for 4th)? creighton or st. mary's wouldn't do that. how does a poor ooc schedule negate 6 top 50 wins? like someone posted earlier, the chairman takes who you beat into account and where. penn state has good wins. what do creighton and st. mary's have?

By destroyed, you mean beat t home in a close game that northwestern shot the lights out in, and started to pull away in the last 3 or 4 minutes, i hope. And FSU and wake both beat UM this year, so it must be out of sheer stupidity that you would think UM is the best team of the 3... Wake is coming off 3 wins to end the regular season, including a win over wake, and a win over clemson, and their only loss in their last 7 games was at duke, sounds like a team playing well, to me.

Who has FSU and WF beat in non-con...other than UNC...I dont think the ACC is strong this year...even Duke...which unbelievably could snag a one tomorrow...doesnt deserve a one. WF played NO ONE to get to where they were by January..they have been in a tailspin ever since...including losing to the Terps on a neutral court. If you dont think FSU and WF are on upset watch...youre the one that is wrong.

lol how about the losses to Miami, GT and NCST about a month ago...plus u prove my point that FSU is a dog..they lost to WF by 23...thats insane for any 3 or 4 seed to lose on the road by that many...thus the reason why Memphis doesnt deserve a 1 since their loss at ND a while back...ACC has been an inflated conference the last few years...this year included...the numbers show it...oh and WF beat NCST, GT, and a Clemson team that lost to GT in the tourney...its not like they beat any world beaters on the way in plus whats their biggest road game at Clemson or a two point win against Maryland? Come on...

Maybe you should check the current RPI numbers: they're currently #26. Or Ken Pomeroy: they're currently #22. When the the final polls are released on Monday, they'll be lucky to still be in the top 25.

Everything is holding up since our last bracket. Still looks like 4 bids up for grabs.

Auburn is done. Finishing 9-2 is impressive, but in the SEC this year it isn't much. They have nothing OOC and suffered to many conference losses in January. It also doesn't help that Miss St is looking like it has a great chance to be a bid stealer.

Maryland kept it close in their loss. They will have to hope for no bid stealers and they should be ok.

Memphis made their case for being a #1 by absolutely destroying the competition in the C-USA tourney. We can see the committee giving them a 1 to try to spread load it away from the ACC and Big East. We don't think they deserve it though.

Penn State will be either the last team in our out. They really need to hope for no bid stealers tonight and tomorrow with Miss State.

We can be 99% sure that Arizona's tournament streak is now over. No way that the Pac 10 gets 6. USC won the 3 games they had to win. All year, they kinda looked capable but never really put it together.

I would guess that if SDSU wins the game going on now, Nevada wins later tonight, and Miss State wins tomorrow - Maryland and Minnesota would be the 2 "big conference" teams that have the most to lose from where they are right now. Obviously St. Mary's and Creighton are in their own precarious positions. I wonder if B101 agrees.

This Digger Phelps talk reminds me... ND would be better off if they had joined the Big Ten. The conference would get up to a nice 12 number for football title games, and ND's basketball program would fit right in with most of the Big Ten.... good, but not great this year. ND/Purdue and ND/Indiana as conference games would be EVENTS.

Ever since BC left the Big East, ND hasn't had anything resembling a conference rival.

I don't think Siena is top 20, but don't forget other than Niagara, they also beat MVC champ Northern Iowa in Bracket Busters. And even though the final was only 6 points, Siena totally manhandled N. Iowa that game until they put on the brakes towards the end of the game.

It's splitting hairs with Wisconsin and Minnesota at this point - they are one spot apart on our S-curve. The reason we give a slight edge to Wisconsin right now, even though they got swept by the Gophers, is their record in their last 10 games. Minnesota finished 4-6 down the stretch, while Wisconsin was 7-3.

I suspect the committee won't put 3 teams from one conference as #1 seeds. That much was suggested in '05 when Washington got the #1 seed in the west over Wake Forest. And UConn hasn't really looked like a #1 seed since they lost Jerome Dyson.

"Phelps should be fired and Davis their bias is sickening. I guess Digger is holding on Notre Dame getting an 8 seed in the NCAA"

Agreed. The Big 10 is set to get at least 6, probably 7 and possibly 8 teams in the tourney and all ESPN does is tear them apart.

Yet the SEC is sitting in a position to get 2 bids and may be the worst BCS basketball conference EVER this season and ESPN doesn't say 2 negative words about it. Even with Kentucky it's "I think their streak will probably be ending this year".

Davis has no idea what he's talking about. Yesterday he was talking about how Ohio State's problem is that they have no 2nd option on offense (they lead the Big 10 in field goal % and Buford/Turner was the top scoring Big 10 duo for much of the year) and the only thing keep them in games was their defense (which is awful).

With Minnesota sweeping Wisconsin, you have to go with the other factors. Clearly, Michigan takes the lead among the 3 with the wins over Duke and UCLA. Minnesota has the win over Louisville, which I think gives them a slight advantage, but it's not obvious.

Finished 4th in conference.Lost to both St. Mary's and Arizona.UNLV and New Mexico are no longer quality wins.Result is that only quality wins are home agains Utah and in the MWC tournament against BYU.

Mizzou and Villanova are locks for a 3 Seed. I think if Syracuse wins tonight, they are a lock for a 3 seed. Unless FSU destroys Duke I don't think they can pass up Wake. I think the 3 seeds are pretty much set.

I'm totally expecting either Auburn or Mississippi State to show up in the bracket. In the last few years with Slive near the top or at the top of the committee, we had the mystery Arkansas appearance in '07 and the complete overseeding of the SEC in '08. I suspect the SEC gets some advantage this year as well.

One more interesting aspect of SDSU's profile. There best player Lorenzo Wade was suspended for the first 7 games which included a loss to ASU. He was back just in time for Arizona and St. Mary's but didn't start either game and had not been practicing with the team at all yet. He also missed the road loss to Wyoming. Wouldn't even be worth mentioning, but with it being such a close call it may be considered by the committee.

"I'm totally expecting either Auburn or Mississippi State to show up in the bracket. In the last few years with Slive near the top or at the top of the committee, we had the mystery Arkansas appearance in '07 and the complete overseeding of the SEC in '08. I suspect the SEC gets some advantage this year as well."

If Auburn gets in at the expense of Mich/Minn/Wisc/PSU/Maryland/(insert big 12 team here), that's selection committee fraud.

JGib...it wouldn't be a complete shock to see Auburn pop up, but there is no way they could include Miss. St if they lose tomorrow. They have no profile and to include them over a Penn State, SDSU, or St. Mary's would be a crime.

If Auburn gets in at the expense of Mich/Minn/Wisc/PSU/Maryland/(insert big 12 team here), that's selection committee fraud. Auburn has a higher rating than PSU, a much better conference record, and has been extremely hot as of late. PSU probably has the stronger resume, but im not sure that you would call in the fuzz because last 10 was more importantly adjudicated than... wait a second... What was PSU's strength?

"Auburn has a higher rating than PSU, a much better conference record, and has been extremely hot as of late. PSU probably has the stronger resume, but im not sure that you would call in the fuzz because last 10 was more importantly adjudicated than... wait a second... What was PSU's strength?"

Auburn was 10-6 in the SEC, PSU was 10-8 in the Big Ten. Pretty close there.

But.. deeper in the numbers, Auburn has 2 top 50 RPI wins, 1 each home and neutral. PSU has 6, including 2 on the road. Auburn did do well in the 50-75 range, but that is balanced out by some weird non-conference results.

To the ACC slappy from two hours ago...so you mean to tell me that you have never seen a team with a top 20 ranking not getting a seed better than a five? Butler for the past few years have been consistently ranked in the AP and Coaches top 25 before selection time comes out and usually they are seeded well below their what their ranking deems. I take NO stalk in the AP rankings...most of the press has no idea whom a team beat to get to 16-3 or 16-2..etc...SOS and record against the top 50 RPI is clearly more important to the selection committee then AP or Coaches rankings...so dont be surprised if Wake slips to a 4 and FSU a five if they lose to Duke tomorrow.

...and FSU lost to the ninth best team in the Big Ten(NW)...if the ACC is so powerful...I dont care if the game is on the road...the mighty Seminoles should take care of a team that has never even been to the dance!

Guys, please tell me what I'm missing -- how are either St. Mary's or Creighton more deserving than Penn State? PSU's worst losses were to bubble teams (URI, Temple) and the best wins of St. Mary's / Creighton are against bubble teams (with the exception of Creighton beating Dayton early in the season).

We hear you run up the score...but like we said all week the 8th spot out of the B10 is a bad spot to be and it will be a factor. Now does it mean that PSU gets left out because of it...not necessarily. But they may say...you had your chance PSU and lost to Iowa and then got beaten up by Purdue, we want to give the little guy some love. It's 50/50 at this point.

Honestly, I'm all for giving the little guy love. I hate when .500 conference teams always nudge out the mid-major teams. Here's the problem -- these particular mid-major contenders have next to zero quality wins. St. Mary's beat Utah State, SDSU, and Providence. Nice wins. They also lost to Portland State and Santa Clara.

Creighton beat Dayton. Very nice win. They also lost to .500 Wichita State and Drake.

Penn State beat Purdue, Illinois twice, Michigan State, Michigan, and Minnesota. They won at Michigan State and Illinois. They lost to Iowa in overtime, mainly because their best player had one arm.

All for giving love to the little guy, but these resumes aren't comparable.

But in Penn State's case, those were all in conference. It's not like Creighton or St. Mary's got to play those teams in their conference. And those teams did what they had to do in their conference to warrant consideration. Creighton won the title and the last 11 games. You can only do what you can do, I guess. Every team at this spot on the bubble has pluses and minuses. At the end of tomorrow, I'd be very surprised if you could really argue against who got in, regardless of who it is, whether it is PSU, Creighton, St. Mary's or at this point even Arizona. Seriously, flip a coin.

I think RPI is the primary answer. Penn State'd RPI is now down to 70. I think only two teams have gotten in with RPIs in the 70s - New Mexico in '99 when they were an AP Top 25 team, and Air Force in '04, when they won the Mountain West regular season. And regular season champs have been looked upon favorably recently. That's an advantage Creighton has over any of the other bubble teams in the discussion.

I think you are putting too much weight on the S-curve when it comes to bracket placement. Last year Tennessee was in the 1-seed discussion and ended up as the best 2 and they were placed with the overall #1, North Carolina, in Charlotte. Someone on CBS asked the committee chair about this and he said they wanted to reward Tennessee as the best 2 seed with the best geographical location. And this makes sense, because reading the bracketing principles the committee uses, there is far more emphasis on geographic compatibility then trying to balance strength via the S-Curve.

To the ACC slappy from two hours ago...so you mean to tell me that you have never seen a team with a top 20 ranking not getting a seed better than a five? Butler for the past few years have been consistently ranked in the AP and Coaches top 25 before selection time comes out and usually they are seeded well below their what their ranking deems. I take NO stalk in the AP rankings...most of the press has no idea whom a team beat to get to 16-3 or 16-2..etc...SOS and record against the top 50 RPI is clearly more important to the selection committee then AP or Coaches rankings...so dont be surprised if Wake slips to a 4 and FSU a five if they lose to Duke tomorrow.

1. NO WAY FSU IS A 5. Sorry. At the very worst they are the top 4 seed. 2. FSU has a higher SOS than Mizzou, by 25 spots, also has a higher SOS than villanova(out of the vaunted big east) and is much higher than wake or memphis, and is directly behind Uconn.

3rd. FSU is currently 6-5 vs top 50, better than mizzou, syracuse, Washington, and memphis.

4th. FSU's worst loss is only #72 NW who was a bubble team until the bids started getting stolen last night... OU lost to #144 Arkansas, utah lost to southwest baptist and idaho state, Kansas has a loss to 151 Umass, and #120 TTU, Washington has a loss to Portland St...On top of all that, FSU has so many near misses against great teams that its not even funny... FSU played 38 minutes to a standstill with Pitt, played 39 minutes and 58 seconds even with UNC the first time, lost to duke by just 8, and then was leading duke with 1:30 to go in cameron just last tuesday.

They are 1 or 2 plays away from being a 2 seed at 27-6 or 28-5, and with a win over duke, deserve a #3, no doubt.

If Duke wins, will they be the last #1... who will it be: Uconn, Duke or Memphis? ALso, as a 4 seed, where will Cuse go? Will they have to play UNC or Duke/Memphis? Is there any chance we get to play Uconn/Pitt/UL in the S16?

Dear FSU fan, I have no dog in this fight. I'm just telling you, and have made comments to B101 that Kansas is not going lower than a 3 seed. B101 is about the only site that has them at a 4. Their regular season Big 12 championship will be rewarded. Not saying it's right, just what I think. Hell, some sites have them as a 2 seed.

FSU will be a 4 seed even with a win tomorrow. I like your passion, but use reason. I don't think FSU can pass Nova, Wake, or Mizzou on the S-curve. Therefore, I think they're a 4.

If Duke wins, will they be the last #1... who will it be: Uconn, Duke or Memphis? ALso, as a 4 seed, where will Cuse go? Will they have to play UNC or Duke/Memphis? Is there any chance we get to play Uconn/Pitt/UL in the S16?

I dont think memphis can be in the discussion for a 1 seed with a 1-2 record vs top 25, and with 2 of their 4 top 50 wins being UAB... Id assume syracuse is a Portland or boise team, for now, assuming they become a 4, since the 3's will take up minneapolis,and miami.

Dear FSU fan, I have no dog in this fight. I'm just telling you, and have made comments to B101 that Kansas is not going lower than a 3 seed. B101 is about the only site that has them at a 4. Their regular season Big 12 championship will be rewarded. Not saying it's right, just what I think. Hell, some sites have them as a 2 seed.

FSU will be a 4 seed even with a win tomorrow. I like your passion, but use reason. I don't think FSU can pass Nova, Wake, or Mizzou on the S-curve. Therefore, I think they're a 4.

I think your wrong about Kansas, If FSU finishes off the year with 4 straight wins, and 9 out of 12, and closes with wins over the #2 and #3 rpi teams in the country, i say it makes a huge statement, and one that the committee would be remiss for not taking to heart. Kansas's best win was against OU when they were missing griffin, if you are going to give OU a pass, you have to take credit away from Kansas, also, kansas has 2 inexcusable losses, where FSU has none, and FSU's ONLY HOME LOSSES ARE TO UNC, DUKE,and PITT. They also would have Road/neutral victories over 7 top 100 teams, including 6 top 63 teams. Kansas has 1 victory Road/neutral, and that is over a griffin-less OU... FSU also is the champion of the toughest conference, with a win, whereas kansas bowed out in the Q-finals to an underwhelming baylor./

Kansas has 1 victory Road/neutral, and that is over a griffin-less OU... FSU also is the champion of the toughest conference, with a win, whereas kansas bowed out in the Q-finals to an underwhelming baylor./

And by 1 victory, i mean over top 63 RPI, since that is what i simplified FSU down to.

Someone the other day mentioned New York being in line to get 5 bids. With Temple's surprising run in the A-10, Robert Morris having won their tournament, and Villanova and Pittsburgh locks for at-large bids, Penn State could push Pennsylvania to 5 bids.

Lunardi has Kansas #8 on his s-curve right now. He's got UNC, Pitt, Louisville, Memphis as his #1's. He's got UConn, Duke, Mich St, and Kansas as his #2's. Even though I don't agree with this, I find it hard to believe that Lunardi is going to mis-seed Kansas by 2 lines.

Lunardi has Kansas #8 on his s-curve right now. He's got UNC, Pitt, Louisville, Memphis as his #1's. He's got UConn, Duke, Mich St, and Kansas as his #2's. Even though I don't agree with this, I find it hard to believe that Lunardi is going to mis-seed Kansas by 2 lines.

The University Daily Kansan, the student newspaper at KU, predicted the other day that KU will get a 4 seed, so it's not just B101. I hope they're wrong, but it seems about right to be honest with you.

I think that Mizzou, kansas, nova, washignton, syracuse and wake all are similarly rated, and i think that syracuse, nova, mizzou, and FSU are the most deserving of the 3 seeds, as the hottest teams playying.

FSU's WORST home loss was #3 in the RPI UNC! Their only other home losses were #2 duke, and #1 pitt, this is a team that does what it has to do, and has one of the top 3 guards in the nation, in douglas, and one of the best shotblockers, in alabi.

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