South Africa

Mbeki v Zuma: the showdown

The ruling party's leadership race turns into a depressing duel

IN MANY democratic countries, party leadership contests are openly fought affairs. In South Africa's ruling African National Congress (ANC), they have usually been a lot more mysterious. Candidates deny they are in the running—so do not debate with one another—and there is only one name left on the ballot by the time the party votes. But as the ANC meets on December 16th to pick its next leader, a real contest is in the offing for the first time in decades. Thabo Mbeki, president of both the ANC and the country, and Jacob Zuma, the party's vice-president whom Mr Mbeki sacked as the country's deputy president in 2005, are vying for the job. The mere fact of an open race should be good news. But the two candidates are not.

Nominations from the party branches put Mr Zuma comfortably ahead, so he looks set to win. But Mr Mbeki's camp still hopes to convince enough delegates to change their minds. Ministers and other heavyweights have been dispatched to the local trenches. Allegations of wrongdoing on both sides, from promises of jobs and cash to intimidation and shenanigans in the course of nomination, have been flying around too. The constitution bars Mr Mbeki from being the country's president for a third term after the 2009 general election. But if he retains control of the party, he can at least block Mr Zuma from following him, as the party's president traditionally becomes its candidate to be the country's president.

However, after 13 years in power, first as Nelson Mandela's deputy and then as president, Mr Mbeki's aloof and authoritarian style of leadership has alienated many in the party. Parts of the ANC, together with the party's communist and trade union allies, are unhappy with the government's economic policies, which they criticise as too business-friendly and not helpful enough to the country's many poor. And they complain that the party's tradition of robust debate has been replaced by fear and intolerance. Mr Mbeki's stubbornly weird views on HIV/AIDS have also angered many.

All this has boosted the fortunes of the congenial Mr Zuma, far more at ease with the party's rank and file than Mr Mbeki. To allay fears that he may be too radical, he has recently been waltzing through Asia, Europe and America, telling investors that he supports the government's broadly free-market policies. In other words, they have nothing to fear if he becomes South Africa's president.

But Mr Zuma is hardly an ideal candidate. He was sacked in 2005 following the conviction of his financial adviser for corruption and could soon face similar charges himself. He was acquitted of rape in 2006, but admitted to having unprotected sex with his HIV-positive accuser; he said he took a shower to minimise the risks of infection. Mr Zuma believes he is the innocent victim of a political conspiracy, but his detractors accuse him of saying whatever people want to hear and of surrounding himself with shady characters. They still fear that he may reverse the undoubted gains of recent years with reckless economic policies.

Unfortunately, hopes for a compromise candidate seem dead. A former Robben Island prisoner and successful businessman, Tokyo Sexwale, threw his hat in the ring but failed to get much support. He is now supporting Mr Zuma. Other credible alternatives, such as Cyril Ramaphosa, a former trade unionist and now businessman, have kept their heads down.

Is there no one else?

The rest of South Africa is watching from the sidelines—and is unimpressed. According to local polls taken in the big cities, Mr Mbeki's popularity has sunk to 40%, while almost half think that a Zuma presidency would be disastrous.

Whatever happens, it seems that the days are gone when the ANC leader simply emerged from a magic circle of party elders. Some ANC voices lament this, arguing that the open and public bitterness of the current contest is a betrayal of the party's collegial traditions.

But a more open and competitive leadership race should in theory be a step in the right direction for both the party and the country, as the official opposition, now led by a white liberal, Helen Zille, is unlikely to present much of an electoral challenge for the foreseeable future. It is, however, hard to fathom how a party with such a long line of remarkable leaders has ended up having to choose between these particular alternatives.