UFC Fortaleza: Punch Drunk Predictions

So last weekend was a lesson in hubris for your friendly neighbourhood predictor man.

After rocketing out to a 42-15 start to my year here with the Punch Drunk Predictions, I was feeling myself a little heading into UFC 209. Bolstered by a couple “Damn – you’re on fire!” tweets and comments (Hi Shane!), I decided to include my current record in the social media promotion of last week’s picks.

And then I went 4-7 to fall to 46-22 for the year, which drags me below 70 per cent for 2017 and serves as yet another reminder that no one likes a braggart.

Vitor Belfort vs. Kelvin Gastelum

Kelvin Gastelum (L) fights Tim Kennedy in their middleweight bout during the UFC 206 event at Air Canada Centre on Dec. 10, 2016, in Toronto. (Photo by Vaughn Ridley/Getty Images)

Gastelum still harbours a belief that he’s going to return to welterweight, but it seems pointless to me since he’s looked outstanding in two middleweight appearances thus far and should earn a place in the title conversation with a win here.

Please note: I said “in the conversation,” not that he deserves a title shot; those are two different things.

This is a fight where Gastelum should absolutely wreck shop. Take what he did against Tim Kennedy at UFC 206 and replace the durable, stubborn American with the 40-year-old Belfort, and the former Ultimate Fighter winner has a clear path to a stoppage victory and a statement win.

Belfort still has the ability to catch Gastelum with a clean shot early, but his power hasn’t been the same in recent fights and his gas tank has become increasingly shallow during that time as well; so as long as Gastelum doesn’t get too loose and eat something random in the opening two minutes, he should be able to drown “The Phenom” with volume and pressure and pick up a stoppage win.

Mauricio Rua vs. Gian Villante

I can’t shake the feeling that this fight is going to leave a lot of people feeling really, really sad once the dust settles, because I think this is going to be the bout where everyone agrees that Shogun is shot and probably needs to stop stepping into the cage.

Villante is too tough for his own good and carries a ton of pop, which makes him an ideal dance partner for the Brazilian legend in terms of orchestrating a violent symphony, but it also means Rua is going to be catching some heavy leather and I don’t think he’s capable of dealing with what “MMA Gronk” brings to the table.

On pedigree, this is a cakewalk for Rua, but training, conditioning and durability are all major questions for the former Pride and UFC champion at this point, and fighting a “kill or be killed” opponent like Villante means he most likely won’t get a chance to get gifted a decision like he did last year against Corey Anderson.

Both guys are going to come out swinging, but I’m taking the upset. I think Villante lands something stiff in the opening round that stops Rua in his tracks and has us all contemplating his future on Sunday morning.

Prediction: Gian Villante by TKO, Round 1

Edson Barboza vs. Beneil Dariush

Edson Barboza looks to extend his winning streak to three on Saturday when he takes on Beneil Dariush.

Easily the best fight on the card, this Top 10 lightweight matchup should be really interesting, as Dariush has a clear edge on the ground, but Barboza has tremendously improved his takedown defence over the years and will tear up Dariush’s legs whenever they’re in space.

Although Dariush has made great strides with his striking, Barboza does an excellent job of maintaining range – landing his shots and circling away – and that will make it difficult for the Kings MMA product to connect or get inside. As such, this lines up nicely for the Brazilian, who should be able to stick and move, utilizing his speed advantage, and roll to another decision win.

Prediction: Edson Barboza by Unanimous Decision

Jussier Formiga vs. Ray Borg

I love fights like this – battles between established veterans and talented upstarts where there is a clear choice based on track record, but making that selection isn’t easy because the youngster has elite potential and this could be their breakthrough performance.

Formiga is a known commodity – savvy in the clinch and smothering on the ground – but he’s struggled against the best of the best since arriving in the UFC. Borg, meanwhile, has been flashes and sparks, but has yet to have that one showing where he puts it all together and truly shines.

As much as I usually take the veteran in these situations on the basis of the “you’ve got to prove it to me first” statute, I really liked Borg as a prospect when he first arrived in the UFC and think the shift to Jackson’s will not only pay huge dividends, but accelerate his development.

With a second camp working with that crew under his belt and a much easier time managing his weight, I like the 23-year-old scrambler with steadily improving striking to get the better of Formiga in this one and put himself in the running for a title shot.

Prediction: Ray Borg by Unanimous Decision

Bethe Correia vs. Marion Reneau

This is a really interesting fight (to me) because Reneau is the superior athlete with the more well-rounded skill set, but Correia is durable and does a very good job of throwing a ton of volume and giving the impression that she’s dominating the action, even when she’s doing very little damage.

If Reneau can get this to the ground – or turn this into a grappling match in any way – she has the edge, but Correia has sound takedown defence and should be able to keep this at punching range. With that in mind, I can’t see Reneau doing enough on the feet to really swing this in her favour, as Correia will just keep coming forward behind constant punches to earn the decision.

Alex Oliveira vs. Tim Means

Set aside the fact that Means absolutely blasted Oliveira with an illegal knee and deserved to be disqualified the first time they tried this one, because it has no bearing on what should happen here.

What does play, however, is the fact that Means was all over “Cowboy” from Jump Street and it shouldn’t be any different this time around. Means is “Carlos Condit Lite” – an all-action brutalizer who just wants to put it on you from the outset while throwing caution to the wind, because he’s confident that you’re not going to hold up under the pressure and punishment.

That’ll get him into trouble against top-flight welterweights, but here, it should produce a lopsided win.

2017 Punch Drunk Predictions Record: 46-22-0 (.676)

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