Moderation is not Enough

If extremism fails, how about moderate political
party? One answer: why bother? You can achieve moderate
goals by simply electing a mix of Democrats and Republicans.

Another answer: moderate parties fail as well, partly for
the reason in the previous paragraph. However, moderate parties
do often come much closer to succeeding. Indeed, candidates
have been elected to offices as high as governor under the banner
of various moderate parties. And moderate parties have done much
better at the presidential level than the ideological parties
– at least during the last half-century.

Despite these successes, moderate parties have a tough time;
centrist parties generally collapse faster than the
radical ideological parties who experience less success. The
Reform Party is a tiny ghost of its former self. Even with millions
of federal dollars and plenty of name recognition, Pat Buchanan
barely squeaked past the Libertarian candidate who was an under
funded unknown.

We can explain this phenomenon by asking, “What is a
moderate?” Consider the following table of positions
associated with Democrats and Republicans:

Democratic Positions

Republican Positions

National health care

Private health Care

Gun control

Second Amendment rights

Higher taxes on the rich

Lower taxes on the rich

Defense spending cuts

Increased defense spending

Sensitivity to the rights of the accused

Being tough on crime, whatever it takes

Signing the Kyoto protocol

Nonchalance on global warming

A moderate would be one who takes a mix of Democratic and
Republican positions, right? Well, which mix?

Moderate 1

Moderate 2

National health care

Private health Care

Gun control

Second Amendment rights

Higher taxes on the rich

Lower taxes on the rich

Increased defense spending

Defense spending cuts

Being tough on crime, whatever it takes

Sensitivity to the rights of the accused

Nonchalance on global warming

Signing the Kyoto protocol

We have two moderates. Each takes an equal number of Democratic
and Republican positions. Yet these moderates have
nothing in common! There is just as much difference
between these two moderates as between the Democrats and
Republicans!

This leads us two our second rule for third parties:

Rule 2: a third party needs some
principles.

A third party need not be a “Party of Principle,” as
the LP strives to be. An overly strict ideology results in a party
too small to win. But a party does need to have enough organizing
principles do determine who is invited to join. Party members can
disagree on many things, but there must be more agreement within
the party than between the parties.

In practice, moderate parties tend to coalesce around celebrity
candidates and collapse soon thereafter. The celebrity
candidate’s mix of positions provides the temporary cohesion
to keep the moderate party alive long enough to win an election or
few. This works, but not that often. To see why, look at the figure
below.

Here, we have a moderate candidate running against a Democrat on
the left and a Republican on the right. If the Democratic and
Republican candidates are sufficiently radical, then the moderate
candidate has a shot at winning. If the major party candidates move
toward the center, the moderate party candidate gets squeezed
from both sides. This is a likely scenario! The Democrat has a
base locked up on the left. She loses no votes by moving to the
center while gaining votes from the moderate. Similarly, the
Republican gains centrists by moving to the center while holding on
to his conservative base. True, if the major party candidates move
too close to the center, they lose the passion of their respective
activist bases. But this is less of a concern in a three way
race with a moderate! A candidate need not win a majority in this
scenario. A bit over 1/3 is all it takes. The Democrat and
Republican can locate closer to their respective bases than if they
were in a two way contest! A moderate candidate in the center
can help elect a more radical candidate from either the left or
right!

As bad as conditions are for a centrist in a three-way race,
they are even worse for an extremist – at least as long as we
are looking at politics in one dimension. Once we look at
politics in two or more dimensions, the prospects for a third party
candidate look much better. But before we look at politics in
2D, we need to deal with the dreaded Lesser of
Two Evils Dilemma. Up to now I have underestimated the
challenges faced by a radical new political party. It is time for a
dose of harsh reality.

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