US public’s acceptance of scientific knowledge erratic

We're good with the risks of smoking; can't deal with the age of the Earth.

The Associated Press has commissioned a poll that delves into the US public's acceptance of some extremely well-established scientific findings—so established that most scientists would consider them facts. Although some of these facts have clearly entered the public's consciousness, there are a number of issues where US citizens haven't accepted reality.

The survey, which had a sample of over 1,000 people (for a margin of error of about three percent), simply stated the facts and then asked people to express how confident they were in the accuracy of the statement. The pollsters broke it down into three general categories: extremely or very confident, somewhat confident, and what you'd call the doubters: those who were not confident and not confident at all.

The good news is that more than 80 percent of those surveyed are strongly confident that smoking causes cancer; only four percent doubt it. Roughly 70 percent accepted that we have a genome and that mental illness is seated in the brain; about 20 percent were uncertain on these subjects, and the doubters were few. But things go downhill from there. Only about half of the people accepted that vaccines are safe and effective, with 15 percent doubting.

And that's one of the controversial topics where the public did well. As for humanity's role in climate change, 33 percent accepted, 28 percent were unsure, and 37 percent fell in the doubter category. For a 4.5-billion-year-old Earth and a 13.8-billion-year-old Big Bang, acceptance was below 30 percent. Fully half of the public doubted the Big Bang.

As usual, there were problems with evolution. Thirty-one percent accepted that life on Earth (including humans) evolved, while 43 percent doubted it. But there was what you might call micro-acceptance of some aspects of evolution: 65 percent of those polled accepted the idea that antibiotic overuse led to drug-resistant bacteria.

The accompanying evaluation suggests that part of the problem is simply that the age of the Earth and Universe seems very remote to people, who question whether we can say anything about them with confidence. In contrast, many people have personal experience with the harms of smoking, leading to widespread acceptance.

An analysis of the correlations within the data indicates that "confidence in evolution, the Big Bang, the age of the Earth, and climate change decline sharply as faith in a supreme being rises." The pollsters themselves, though, are part of the problem in this case. In the midst of a series of scientific statements, they inserted the following: "The Universe is so complex, there must be a supreme being guiding its creation." (Just over half agreed.) This would be enough to evoke many people's cultural affinities for religious beliefs and is likely to influence the answers to the remaining questions. Questions were randomized, so this won't be a problem for every participant, but it's still likely to have skewed the results.

(Refusal to accept climate change isn't an obviously religious issue, but it tends to be part of a package of conservative political and religious beliefs.)

The results provide some cause for optimism. At one point in time, there was an aggressive and well-funded campaign designed to raise doubt about the hazards of smoking. A concerted and ongoing counter-campaign helped turn the tide. Of course, that latter effort was aided by a bit of personal experience and self-interest; everybody cares about their health, as the wide acceptance of the evolution of antibiotic resistance shows.

It will remain difficult for anyone to have either personal experience or interest in the age of the Earth or Universe, so bringing the public around to reality on those issues may remain a difficult battle. But the same isn't true of climate change, which could provide an opening for shifting public opinion.