Strategy, CE, Tech, Climate Change, Innovation, and Entrepreneurship

The Future of

Monday, July 06, 2009

It's no secret that the college textbook publishing business is in trouble. The declinging economy, student and faculty resistance to high prices of new text books, and the used textbook market are among the factors making life difficult for publishers. Now, according to a NYTimes article, publishers are having their base business attacked by textbook rentals.

Chegg.com is a venture back startup that is building a growing business renting textbooks to college students.

With demand for good deals on textbooks running high, Chegg’s success comes in large part from being able to address those inefficiencies. While Chegg primarily rents books, it is also essentially acting as a kind of “market maker,” gathering books from sellers at the end of a semester and renting — or sometimes selling — them to other students at the start of a new one. That provides liquidity to the market, said Yannis Bakos, associate professor of management at the Stern School of Business at New York University.

Monday, February 02, 2009

It's important to remember
what this map is really my own -- my preferences may be irrelevant to others. On
the map I mention for example that my overall use of Facebook has decreased
while my use of Linkedin has increased. There are several reasons for this; one
is that I don't think Facebook is a very good discussion forum, and another is
that I continue to enjoy Linkedin's business focus. Others may have a very
different view.

The point is that, when it comes to developing a
"personal networking strategy," one size does not fit all. You really do need a
personal strategy. In my case, my web site is the central focus of my "online
presence," and while I tend to comment frequently on other blogs and web sites,
I reserve the most thought and attention to my own site. That's a personal
preference.

If anyone is interested in things you should consider when
trying to decide how to develop a "personal professional networking strategy,"
check out the links I've posted here:

Numerous individuals and groups are trying to make sense of social networking and there seems to be no clear conclusions as yet. For example, if you are not in sales or marketing (yes, we are all in sales and marketing), what are the benefits of social networking sites such as LinkedIn? Are Facebook, Twitter, and the like useful business tools? What about social bookmarking tools such as delicious, digg, and technorati?

MassHighTech has published an article indicating that VCs are refusing to fund new web 2.0 startups (a much broader category than social networking sites):

However, there’s no question the pool of online social media users is growing. A Pew Research Center report released earlier this month on “adults and social networking services” pegged the share of adult Internet users who keep a profile on an online social network at 35 percent and growing. In a set of predictions released this week, Forrester Research analysts said 85 percent of U.S. online consumers will be using social web content by the end of the year.

But [General Catalyst Partners managing director Larry Bohn ] said the smart money now isn’t in drawing users, who are flocking to the established social-web giants. Now, good investments against the social web are business-to-business plays that allow companies to tap into new customer bases that the major online players have already aggregated, he said.

Against this backdrop of market saturation and evolving business models, how does one make personal sense of the all-too-many social networking tools out there? As a first step, perhaps, tech consultant Dennis McDonald has create a map of his tool space that is both informative and exemplary. A larger version is here. Some tools are listed as "account deleted," several facebook groups, for example. Dennis has not indicated why he finds some tools more useful than others. Dennis?

Monday, March 03, 2008

Using newspaper headlines and articles, the Global Strategy Institute at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) has put together a web site with an explorable map called "Mapping the Future." The map links together what I'd call Events in various categories such as Science, Politics, Construction, and Sporting & Culture arrayed over a time line from 2008 to 2012. Clicking on various Events pops up the article or information underlying the headline.

What's interesting is that various "threads" meet at certain points. For example, in 2012 the Science, Forecasts, and Important Dates threads intersect with these headlines:

Worldwide CO2 emissions reach 20.7 tons per person per year

Expiration of the Kyoto Protocol

Oil demand out paces production in non-OPEC countries

It's unclear what CSIS intends. Event sequences and confluences can be both informative and suggestive as may be the case with this map. At the same time, Event sequences don't constitute in and of themselves a scenario, which should, in my view, be a narrative with plot, actors, motives, Events, etc. leading to a particular integrated vision of a possible future outcome, or Endstate. More information on Endates, Events, and the Scenario Mapping(tm) methodology may be found in this presentation.

Thursday, February 14, 2008

As noted, my former colleagues at NCRI created a form of scenario planning called Future Mapping that improved upon scenario processes pioneered in the business world by Royal Dutch Shell. I was the founder of a series of public workshops on the the Future of Information Commerce that were held in the early 1990s. After my departure for Silicon Valley, my former colleagues continued the workshop. Thanks to the Wayback Machine, I've been reviewing selected results from a 1997 edition of the workshop. The full original report is here; a presentation (PDF) on the Scenario Mapping(tm) process is here.

Public workshop participants are asked to rank the Endstates in terms
of Desirability and Attainability. Each person is assigned to a team
which analyzes their assigned Endstate and then delivers a 15-20 minute
presentation that explains how the world got to be that way. Following
all the team presentations, participants are asked to re-rank the
Endstates.

Tuesday, February 12, 2008

I first met Jim Channon several years ago at the Bamboo restaurant in Hawi, on the north side of the Big Island of Hawaii. Among other things, Jim is one of the 3 pillars of graphic meeting facilitation (with Bob Horn and David Sibbet), environmentalist and futurist, proposer of the Earth First Battalion, and a terrific raconteur.

[tip o' the hat to BH] I've been watching Jim's YouTube video, "12 Break-throughs of the Next Decade." In this thought-provoking 10 minute video, Jim suggests some additional / alternative activities that might be undertaken by large companies and institutions for the benefit of humankind. The list of organizations includes armies, banks, chemical and oil companies, navies, churches, governments, space agencies, and colleges. To hear the alternative projects Jim associates with each organization, check out the video.

Thursday, January 24, 2008

To rewind just a bit, my former colleagues at NCRI created a form of scenario planning called Future Mapping that improved upon scenario processes pioneered in the business world by Royal Dutch Shell. After I had departed for Silicon Valley, they continued a series of public workshops on The Future of Information Commerce. The results are available here via Internet Archive's Wayback Machine. An overview of what I call (for trademark reasons) the Scenario Mapping process is provided in this presentation.

Working in teams, workshop participants decide which of 150 plausible Events provided by the facilitators Must or Must Not happen if the team's assigned outcome or Endstate is to be realized. Events that are Common to a majority of scenarios are called Common Events. These are worth added attention because, generally speaking, more industry stakeholders have an interest in these Events. In the 1997 workshop, 12 events appeared in a majority of scenarios. Here they are with my comments.

Tuesday, January 22, 2008

As noted, my former colleagues at NCRI ran a public scenario planning workshop on Mapping The Future of Information Commerce in 1997. The results are summarized here. The time horizon for the Endstates was 2002.

Near the outset of a Scenario Mapping (nee Future Mapping) workshop, teams are asked to vote a database of plausible Events either Highly Likely (>=80%+ probable), Highly Unlikely (<=20% probable), or Uncertain. Using the voting results, the facilitators then construct and present a Conventional Wisdom scenario. The Conventional Wisdom scenario reflects the thinking of the "room" at the outset. To paraphrase former Royal Dutch Shell scenario planner Arie P. de Geus (Planning as Learning, HBR, 1988): If you want to change people's thinking, you first have to show them how they think.

Here are the main themes of the Conventional Wisdom scenario from the 1997 workshop as summarized in the published report. I have added my commentary after each bullet.

High bandwidth will be widely available, affordable, and
in demand by large segments of the population fairly soon (2-3
years).

Actually, it took what some might think a long time in the US for substantial broadband penetration and even now, the US lags some of the developed world both in penetration and typical broadband speeds.

Monday, January 21, 2008

As noted, my former colleagues at NCRI ran a public scenario planning workshop on Mapping The Future of Information Commerce in 1997. The results are summarized here. The time horizon for the Endstates was 2002. As summarized in the report, the key learnings that emerged from this scenario planning workshop included the following bullets. I've added commentary below each.

Major advances in Internet technology and function are virtually
inevitable.

Sure. Greater bandwidth enables new applications.

These improvements are likely to erode the passive entertainment
consumption paradigm (and accompanying advertising-based business
models) that characterize traditional consumer "TV culture"
in the U.S.

Yes and no. Workshop participants didn't anticipate the rise of advertising based business models that have become pervasive on the Web. However, User Generated Content, multiplayer games, and similar applications / activities / contexts are a move away from passive viewing. And TV viewership seems to be declining.

Friday, January 11, 2008

In 1990-1991, the Association of American Publishers co-sponsored a series of public workshops on Mapping the Future of Publishing that I conducted with my then colleagues at NCRI. Later on, I morphed these public workshops into Mapping the Future of Information Commerce. After I departed NCRI at the end of 1995 my former colleagues ran additional installments of the Information Commerce workshop in 1997. Thanks to the Wayback Machine at the Internet Archive, the report is available on the net here.

I thought that it might be a very interesting and possibly useful exercise to return to those days of yesteryear and see what knowledgeable industry participants thought about the future of the information industry and with the benefit of 20/20 hindsight compare their thinking to what actually happened and where we are now.

The Future of Information Commerce workshops used a highly interactive scenario planning process that in these pages is called Scenario Mapping. In addition to the discussion in the report itself, an overview of the Scenario Mapping methodology can be found in this presentation.

In brief, a Scenario Mapping workshop combines "simulated hindsight" with a highly prepared meeting to leverage the collective intelligence of workshop participants. By simulated hindsight I mean that we assume the future is now and ask how the world got to be this way: what were the key milestones, actors, motives, drivers, etc. that led to this world rather than some other.

By highly prepared meeting, I mean that the facilitators in conjunction with workshop sponsors prepare several coherent descriptions of future outcomes or Endstates and a set of hypothetical Events. Each Event has a headline, date, and brief description.

In this series of blogicles, I'll provide snapshots of the Endstates used in the 1997 Information Commerce workshop, summaries of the deliberations, and report on how participants voted on the Endstates and Events. I'll also focus on the "compares and contrasts" with the present.

Wednesday, August 22, 2007

I've been attending conferences on Cold Fusion (also called Low Energy Nuclear Reactions and Lattice Assisted Nuclear Reactions) since the 10th International Conference (ICCF10) held in Cambridge, MA in 2003.

Google. In our "GOOD" scenario, revenue growth
merely slows--to 20% a year. (Google fans will argue that Google's
growth won't slow at all because advertisers have perfect visibility
into ROI, half of the business is international, etc. There are
counter-arguments to each of these points, but you can make your own
assumptions). Expense growth in this case also slows to 20%. Google
is a supertanker whose expenses are currently growing more than 65% per
year, so slowing expenses this much would be very "GOOD." In any case,
in this scenario, Google's margins hold and operating profits grow
20%--nice, but short of what Wall Street is probably expecting.

In our "BAD" Google scenario, revenue flattens, and the company
reigns in expense growth to 10% year (heroic). In this case, revenue
stays the same, but the operating margin drops from 29% to 21% and
operating profit drops by a third. (Imagine how Wall Street will react
to that). We won't tell you about the UGLY case--you can see for
yourself.

Thursday, August 09, 2007

Writing in the Telegraph (UK), Ambrose Evans-Pritchard has an article (top o' the hat to Farbers IP list) indicating that China is threatening to engage in what some might call "economic warfare."

The Chinese government has begun a concerted campaign of economic threats against the United States, hinting that it may liquidate its vast holding of US treasuries if Washington imposes trade sanctions to force a yuan revaluation.

Two officials at leading Communist Party bodies have given interviews in recent days warning - for the first time - that Beijing may use its $1.33 trillion (£658bn) of foreign reserves as a political weapon to counter pressure from the US Congress.

Saber rattling to be sure. Since we are a huge market for China, it's not clear that they would take steps that would adversely affect their own economy. China seems nothing if not pragmatic of late. Still, this news increases uncertainty all around.

Monday, July 16, 2007

People can post presentations on Slideshare.net to share with others. My 11 Fold Way to Venture Capital Funding presentation is posted there. Like other Web 2.0 services, Slideshare enables participants to indicate their favorite presentations. In looking through the list of "appleseed," who included the 11 Fold Way, I found this presentation: Shift Happens, which was done by Jeff Brenman of Apollo Ideas based on fascinating data and thoughts from Karl Fisch. Brenman's contribution is in design.

This very readable presentation is in part about discontinuities, tipping points, and future shock. For example, some of Fisch's points suggest that our century will be the century of Chindia [my term, not his]. A couple of bullets:

The 25% of the people in China with the highest IQs is greater than the total population of North America

While change on the level showcased in these scenarios happens because of many different trends and events in society, using one sector to frame each scenario allows us to consider a particular angle or ‘take’ on those factors that shape Hawai‘i’s futures. Despite this framing, factors from many areas, and from different levels, were taken into account when we created the scenarios. It is important to remember that these scenarios are not predictions, but rather exercises in exploring how and why Hawai‘i may change.

Each scenario stresses a different sector: Social, Economic, Environmental, and Political.

“Cultural Fragmentation” (Social): The myth of the melting pot is exposed.

“Towers of Tomorrow” (Economic) Population growth and urbanization reshape Hawai‘i.

Monday, June 04, 2007

In graduate school many years ago, I worked with a professor from Canada who believed that eventually the United States would consider annexing some or all of Canada in order to gain access to that country's water resources. Anything is possible.

TERI-BCSD (Business Council for Sustainable Development) India in association with the Bombay Chamber of Commerce and Industry & The Leela Group of Palaces, Hotels and Resorts is organising a national workshop on Water Scenarios for Indian Businesses on 05 June 2007 (World Environment Day) at The Leela Kempinski, Mumbai. Mr. SM Krishna, Honb’le Governor of Maharashtra will be the chief guest and will deliver a special address.

Water allocation problems include:

In the National Water Policy and several state policies water allocation to industry is at the bottom of the priority list. Keeping this in view, sustained supply of freshwater becomes a critical issue for the survival of many industries especially water-intensive industries. The risk that industry faces today can be measured in terms of situations that have occurred where water stress, measured in terms of both availability and quality, has led to an increase in water costs, growth in business disruption and increased concern among the stakeholders about companies’ water-related performance.

Thursday, May 24, 2007

Writing in the Wall Street Journal, Andy Kessler says that Peer-to-Peer is the foundation of the emerging threat:

The real dark cloud is technology known as peer-to-peer (P2P) bubbling
up from the underground that leverages this architecture. Here's how it
works: I might have a copy of this week's "American Idol" on my hard
drive. You want a copy, you stream it from my PC, not FOX. Then you
share it with five or six people that are close to you geographically
so it gets to them quickly. They share as well, and on and on. Live
video streams like a virus, which means once started you can't stop it....

BitTorrent and eDonkey are the top P2P networks and half the usage is
for TV shows. P2P hogs something like 35% or more of all Internet
traffic. Thirty-five percent! But to replace cable, it has to be real
time, and there are tons of real time P2P players, especially out of
China: TVU, SopCast, PPMate. As I write this, I'm watching ESPN on my
PC, denying Disney another outrageous $2.30 per month they charge me
via Comcast. Just as the iPod opened up stolen music to the masses,
devices like Apple TV mean I can stream to my wide screen. Is this
Napster redux? It might well be. TV is no longer the safe cuddly
business it once was.

Tuesday, May 08, 2007

The Futurist magazine has posted some of its 25 years forecasts. (Those allergic to marketing be forewarned.) A few that got my attention:

Forecast #2: Dwindling supplies of water in China will impact the global economy. With uneven development across China, the most water-intensive industries and densest population are in regions where water is scarcest. The result is higher prices for commodities and goods exported from China, so the costs of resource and environmental mismanagement are transferred to the rest of the world.

Forecast #6: Outlook for Asia: China for the short term, India for the long term. By 2025, both countries will be stronger, wealthier, freer, and more stable than they are today, but India's unique assets--such as widespread use of English, a democratic government, and relative transparency of its institutions--make it more economically viable farther out.

Forecast #8: The costs of global-warming-related disasters will reach $150 billion per year. The world’s total economic loss from weather-related catastrophes has risen 25% in the last decade. According to the insurance firm Swiss Re, the overall economic costs of catastrophes related to climate change threatens to double to $150 billion per year in a decade. The U.S. insurance industry’s share would be $30-$40 billion annually. However, the size of these estimates also reflects increased growth and higher real-estate prices in coastal communities.

Sunday, March 19, 2006

[tip 'o the hat to Dave Farber's IP list]Google Video has a fascinating film on the origins of the Internet that should not be missed if you are all interested in the history of the Net. The film by Steven King includes interviews with Bob Kahn, JCR Licklider, BBNer Frank Heart, and several other Internet pioneers.

Tuesday, March 14, 2006

How should we think about world-changing technologies? This is the question posed and answered by Jamais Cascio in an article on WorldChanging.com. Generally speaking previous answers to this question tend to fall into two camps or philosophies. The first advocates the Precautionary Principle, namely, that "we should err on the side of caution when it comes to developments with
uncertain or potentially negative repercussions, even when those
developments have demonstrable benefits, too." The second advocates the Proactionary Principle, specifically, that "we should
err on the side of action in those same circumstances, unless the
potential for harm can be clearly demonstrated and is clearly worse
than the benefits of the action."

Cascio's article defines and justifies the Reversibility Principle:

When considering the development or deployment of beneficial
technologies with uncertain, but potentially significant, negative
results, any decision should be made with a strong bias towards the
ability to step back and reverse the decision should harmful outcomes
become more likely. The determination of possible harmful results must
be grounded in science but recognize the potential for people to use
the technology in unintended ways, must include a consideration of
benefits lost by choosing not to move forward with the technology, and
must address the possibility of serious problems coming from the
interaction of the new technology with existing systems and conditions.
This consideration of reversibility should not cease upon the initial
decision to go forward to hold back, but should be revisited as
additional relevant information emerges.

All well and good. But some argue that some advanced technologies once deployed cannot be put back in the bottle, so to speak.

Are there any historical examples of technologies that were deployed and then recalled? Certain pharmaceuticals have been recalled once pernicious effects were demonstrated. Thalidomide was banned after it was shown that it cause grievous birth defects.

But the pharmaceutical industry, seeking to salvage something, is now working to show that it can be safely prescribed to non-pregnant women and to men to treat various conditions. According to the Wiki,

The FDA approved thalidomide in 1998, under a restricted access system, for the treatment of erythema nodosum leprosum associated with leprosy (Hansen's disease). It also was found to be effective for multiple myeloma, and is now standard first line therapy for this disease in combination with dexamethasone.

So is this an example of revsersability? Probably not.

Take the Strategy Kinetics Challenge: Post a comment suggesting a historical example of the reversability principle. What do you get? Just thanks and 15 seconds of fame.

What can be said about cold fusion? First, I'm not a physicist and cannot fully evaluate the science presented in this collection of papers, or elsewhere for that matter. That said, let me report what others say based on many informal interviews during ICCF10 and subsequently.

You may remember that in the 1980s, chemists Stanley Pons and Martin Fleischmann created a sensation when they announced they had produced excess energy -- more out than went in -- in a table-top experiment. The source of this excess energy was cold fusion, sometimes referred to as Low Energy Nuclear Reactions ("LENR"). If verified both experimentally and theoretically, cold fusion would be a world changing scientific breakthrough.

Tuesday, November 22, 2005

SCOTLAND could develop into a "dynamic country" with a "bohemian
culture" attracting wealthy tourists from the developing nations, or it
could become like a third world nation with a few visitors in "gated
resorts" catering for high-rollers.

Tuesday, June 07, 2005

An earlier blogical here pointed out Robin Sloan and Matt Thompson's EPIC 2014 video on the future of news, the web, and journalism. Now the video has been updated. The EPIC 2015 video can be found here.

Saturday, May 07, 2005

The "cards on the wall" tools and scenario planning generally can be applied to the broadest range of organizational, societal, and international problems. In addition to planning methods generally, I will focus on strategy development and implementation relating to The Future of:

The Music Industry

Global Climate Change

Healthcare, Medicine, Pandemics, and

(biological, chemical, nuclear) Terrorism

Telecom

Why these issues? In part interest and in part to suggest that the strategy development and implementation tools we frequently use on Strategy Kinetics-led consulting projects are useful in addressing the broadest range of strategic problem areas, including those that are believed to entail exceedingly intractable social messes, such as global climate change or healthcare in the United States and as a global human issue.

New Radio Platform To Be Featured On San Francisco's KYCY-AM And KYOURADIO.COM

Joel Hollander, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Infinity
Broadcasting, announced today the creation of KYOURADIO, the world's
first-ever podcasting radio station. KYOURADIO's content will be
created exclusively by its listeners and available in San Francisco at
1550 KYCY-AM and streamed online at www.kyouradio.com beginning on
Monday, May 16.

Thursday, April 07, 2005

Among the points made are that historically pandemics have come in waves:

Pandemic waves

In 1918/19 the A/H1N1 pandemic occurred in three distinct epidemic waves: early spring 1918, autumn 1918 and late winter 1919. The second wave was by far the largest and case-fatality rates were also higher than in the first wave12. The A/H3N2 pandemic caused an epidemic wave in the winter of 1968/69 but a more severe one in 1969/704. In contrast, the second wave of the 1957/58 pandemic in the UK was very small in comparison to the first3. Thus all planning should assume that more than one wave is possible (but not inevitable) and that a second wave could be worse than the first.

In addition to detection and treatment options, the Canadian plan also includes a section deal with mass fatalities [in PDF format]. Such contingency planning is both prudent and responsible. That the Canadian government has published the plan including provisions for worst case situations is both noteworthy and laudatory. Frank communications build trust between governments and citizens.