BEAR FUCKING MARKET TRADING

Markets slid by 600. If you’re still of the frame of mind that this cannot be a bear market, then you’re a delusional permanent-bull idiot. I don’t care how smart you think you are, listen to me — you’re a god damned idiot.

What to do?

RAISE CASH.

What should you do?

BUY TREASURIES.

What should you do?

Stop believing the hype. This market is literally built on a house of cards. It can go much lower.

That being said, lower markets force the Fed to stop raising rates and Trump to broker a deal with China. If we fell after those two things happened, then we’re really in for a harrowing decline.

How far can we fall?

Another 20% from today’s closing price.

Into the bell, I remain long SOXL, for a trade — TMF, a few stocks, and 70% cash. I am supremely positioned to buy the blood. That’s what I do and who I am.

The reality is that economically-sensitive sectors topped out early this year (see Financials XLF, Housing XHB, Industrial/Base Metals DBB, and Semis SMH). It was just the idiotic FANG/tech trade that narrowly drove us to new highs. Now those high-growth names are just catching up to the rest of the market. I see another 10% downside on the S&P in the interim.

Yes I’m BACK laddies! The talking cigarette-man video always gets me…………..HOOKED, and now I am HOOKED.

BTW, any of you catamites consider the possibility that Powell was using that language just to push down the mkt & fuck the President just before mid-terms? Guess what? Mid-terms are over and now he is free to CANCEL ALL ORDERS! Do I KNOW this? NO. Is it possible? You tell me laddies. Just asking a question and posing a possibility fucked-faces. The Cap’n has spoken. Arrrrrr.

Has nobody been looking around? China, Europe, EM = fucked for the better part of a year now. FED is balls out hawkish and we’ve just seen a record run in growth in Corp earnings and profits. BY the simple law of large numbers it’s unsustainable. There’s lower equity prices out there, a lot lower. Copious amounts of Cash, And a mix of low beta fixed income assets.

Lots of denial in the comments. Bulls still don’t understand the impct of the tech earnigns from October and the mathematics of stock indexes.

My still unaswered challenge to the bulls:
The most important index in the US, the S&P 500, is simply calculated by summing the market caps of its components and then multiplying by a weighting factors (to accomodate when companies are added or dropped from the index). This means that to make up for a 5% drop in market cap of a ~trillion dollar company like AAPL, a smaller company would ahve to rise much more than 5% for the index to make another ATH. And by “small company”, I mean Exxon (XOM), Walmart (WMT), Johnson&Johnson (JNJ), or JP Morgan (JPM), which are all about 1/3 the market cap of AAPL. In fact, AAPL has twice the weighting of every other company in the index except MSFT and AMZN, two other tech companies.

This means for a new high to be established – which is the defining difference between the a continuation of the bull market or the start of a bear market, one of two things must happen:
1) the tech giants must make new ATHs
2) new large-cap leadership must rise by a significant percentage above their own/ previous ATHs to make up for the tech short fall.

Smalls Caps RUT is forming a Death Cross. It matters very much, because despite some variation, the Russell 2000 and S & P simply Do Not move in completely opposite directions. Their charts align in nearly identical in form.

Same here. Talking cigarette guy and the other infamous audio from the flash crash of the guy that sounds like he’s announcing a horse race are all-time favs. I liked the horse race guy so much I saved it to my iTunes library… it’s pretty good workout music when the time is right.