News from the Votemaster

The first polls subsequent to the maidgate scandal that hit
Republican gubernatorial candidate Meg Whitman last week are now in.
Rasmussen has Democratic candidate Jerry Brown leading Whitman 49% to 44%.
Two weeks ago, Rasmussen had Brown ahead by 1%.
Among Latino and Asian voters, Whitman was
getting
17% two weeks ago. That is down to 7% now. Clearly the maid story is hurting
her.

In a
second poll,
SurveyUSA has Brown ahead 47% to 43%. So it looks like Brown is probably
a little bit ahead. Whitman has to move fast to fix the problem since
early voting began yesterday in California.

Gallup has released its first
poll
of likely voters. Among all registered voters, Republicans lead by 3% among registered votes
but among likely voters, the gap is 13%. This finding indicates that
Gallup expects many more Republicans to vote than Democrats. The job
for the Democrats at this point is not to appeal to Republicans, but to
convince Democrats that they have done a good job. Apparently many
Democrats are not convinced, possibly because so many of the things Obama
did in the past two years were so watered down in a vain attempt to
attract one or two Republican votes in the Senate.
Ultimately, he didn't get the votes and the Democrats may pay dearly for
trying so hard. Or putting it the other way, the Republicans strategy
of "just say no" appears to be a winner since the main effect seems to be
demoralizing the Democratic base.

On the other hand, an ABC News/Washington Postpoll
puts the gap among likely voters at only 6%, with 49% favoring the
Republicans and 43% favoring the Democrats. A month ago this poll
had the GOP 13% ahead, so the Democrats may be slowly clawing their way back
from oblivion.

National Journal Publishes List of Governors' Mansions Most Likely to Flip
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The National Journal has compiled a
list
of the states in which the
incumbent party is likely to lose the governorship.
The top five are Wyoming, Kansas, Tennessee, Rhode Island, and Michigan.
Except for Rhode Island, all these states currently have a Democratic
governor. Three of the next five are also Democrats.

With hard-charging tea party candidates promising to repeal the
health-insurance law, reduce the federal deficit, and rein in government,
Republican leaders are begining to
worry
about what might happen if the Republicans take control of one or both
chambers of Congress. Realistically, they won't be able to pass or
repeal any laws even if they all stick together because Obama will veto
the bills. But few tea party candidates point out that they won't be
able to carry out any of their promises before 2012 at the earliest, and
only then if a Republican is elected President. So John Cornyn, Eric Cantor,
and Haley Barbour are going around trying to temper expectations without
discouraging their supporters. But it is fine line to walk telling people
that if the Republicans win they won't be able to do much but they should
vote for the Republicans anyway.