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Sunday, March 7, 2010

Palin Leads Romney in Mormon State Poll

In the latest, presumed, Magellan poll of Republican voters, this time in Arizona, Sarah Palin has a one point lead over Mitt Romney. But a note of caution, Magellan is presumed-the site doesn't advise who did the polling and there are no crosstabs yet on this poll- but previous polls on the Republican Rankings blog have been from Magellan and the format looks similar.

This is significant poll as Arizona is one of the states in the "Mormon Corridor" that is states with a Mormon population above, sometimes significantly so, the usual population numbers. Arizona has a Mormon population of 6% the 5th highest in America.

One would assume that the overwhelming number of Arizona's Mormons would be Republican voters.That being the case for Palin to have any lead over Romney is highly significant and augers well for her for any future run at the G.O.P. nomination.

Interestingly this may be balanced out to a degree by Idaho which has a Mormon population of 14% but is Palin's birth state and will present an interesting battle .

Looking in detail at the Arizona results Palin has 28% Romney 27%/Huckabee 13%. If we presume that Huckabee will not run and the bulk of his supporters would go to Palin she would have a signficant lead in a two person race. Amongst conservative voters the split is 30/23/14. Romney has a signficant lead amongst self deemed moderate Republicans 32% to Palin's 18% and Huckabee's 17% but again, if we assume Huckabees supporters would go to Palin the two person split is about even.