Henri nearly dead

Tropical Depression Henri continues to suffer from high wind shear of 20 knots, and appears on its way to dissipation. Visible satellite loops show that the shear has exposed Henri's low level center to view, and this center has become less circular and not as well defined. Henri's heavy thunderstorms have been shrinking in areal coverage and intensity, and are displaced from the center--signs of a highly sheared tropical storm that has little time left to live.

All of the reliable global computer models show weakening and dissipation of Henri by Friday, due to high wind shear. Wind shear in the vicinity of Henri's remains is predicted to fall to the moderate range by Saturday, but at that time it appears that the storm will be moving over the Dominican Republic, which will disrupt whatever is left of the storm's circulation. Henri's remains may bring heavy rains of 2 - 4 inches the the Dominican Republic and Haiti Saturday through Monday. By Tuesday, the remains of Henri will likely be moving across Florida and/or Cuba and into the Gulf of Mexico, where we will need to watch the system for re-development.

Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Henri (top) and a new tropical wave we're watching (bottom). The tropical wave south of Henri, just off the coast of South America, has become disorganized.

Tropical wave south of HenriA tropical wave south of Henri, just north of the coast of South America and a few hundred miles east-southeast of the southernmost Lesser Antilles Islands, has grown less organized since yesterday. Both the areal coverage and intensity of the heavy thunderstorm activity has decreased, and there are no signs of organization to the cloud pattern. This wave is under about 10 knots of wind shear, but is too close to the Equator to be able to take advantage of the Earth's spin to help it spin up into a tropical depression very quickly. Also, the wave may pull in some dry, stable air from South America as it scoots just north of the coast over the next few days. NHC is giving this disturbance a low (less than 30% chance) or developing into a tropical depression by Saturday. There are no computer models showing development of this system.

Figure 2. Tropical Storm Parma (left) and Typhoon Melor (right) on October 7, 2009. At the time, Melor was a Category 4 typhoon with 135 mph winds, and Parma was a tropical storm with 60 mph winds. The two storms were close enough together that they rotated around a common center counter-clockwise, in an interaction known as the Fujiwara Effect. This forced Parma to reverse course and pass over the Philippines from west to east, after the storm had already crossed the islands from east to west. Now that Melor is gone, Parma is crossing the Philippines once more from east to west. Image credit: NASA Earth Observatory.

Typhoon MelorTyphoon Melor made landfall yesterday on Japan's Honshu Island south of Osaka as a Category 1 typhoon with 85 mph winds. The typhoon killed two people and caused some moderate damage to the coastal region of southern Japan where it came ashore.

In the Philippines, Tropical Depression Parma is making its third traverse over the Philippines' Luzon Island. is expected to dump up to six more inches of rain today over the already sodden portions of northern Luzon. The storm is being blamed for 22 deaths and millions in agricultural damage.

Quoting pottery:Looks like 92L will pass mostly north of Trinidad. Should get some nice rains though. Grenada and St.Vincent will probably feel more weather than Trinidad.First showers from the system falling this afternoon here, and some thunder to the north. No problem with that at all...

....""Figure 2. Tropical Storm Parma (left) and Typhoon Melor (right) on October 7, 2009. At the time, Melor was a Category 4 typhoon with 135 mph winds, and Parma was a tropical storm with 60 mph winds. The two storms were close enough together that they rotated around a common center counter-clockwise, in an interaction known as the Fujiwara Effect. This forced Parma to reverse course and pass over the Philippines from west to east, after the storm had already crossed the islands from east to west. Now that Melor is gone, Parma is crossing the Philippines once more from east to west."".....

Shear has relaxed on Henri, now it has to deal with downward dry air and then possible land interaction! What else is new this season it seems like a storm will get a couple things going for it and then splat, bam, capooee!!! Except for Bill of course!

Quoting Drakoen:The ECMWF and GFS show dry air being prevalent in the Caribbean:

With that DLM High along with a negative MJO in the area... sinking air will present some challenges to 92L. Now if it's able to keep south enough and not hug the southern periphery of the DLM High to its N / NW then it will be able to survive, but not sure about actual development to no more than what Heri experienced.

.DISCUSSION... THE EXTRATROPICAL LOW...FORMER WESTERN PACIFIC TYPHOON MELOR...WILL EJECT INTO THE WESTERLIES. THE INFLUX OF TROPICAL MOISTURE AND ENERGY WILL INTENSIFY THE JET...WHICH WILL UNDERCUT THE RIDGE IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THE RIDGE CENTER WILL RETROGRADE TO NORTHERN ALASKA WITH THE JET RACING TO THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST.

WARM ADVECTION/WARM FRONTAL RAINS WILL START ON MONDAY...SPREADING SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT. THE WINDS COULD BEGIN TO PICK UP MONDAY AHEAD OF THE RAIN. THIS COULD CAUSE BLOWING DUST AND DIRT FROM THE FIELDS ACROSS ROADWAYS. RAIN AND WIND WILL INCREASE ON TUESDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG THE 295K LEVEL WITH 50+ KT UPGLIDE. TPW VALUES WILL BE GREATER THAN 1.5 INCHES. 925 MB WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 50+ KT...PERPENDICULAR TO THE HILLS. THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...AS MUCH AS 1 TO 3 INCHES ALONG THE COAST AND VALLEYS WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS TO 5 INCHES. THE HILLS COULD SEE 3 TO 6 INCHES...WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS TO 8 INCHES. FUTURE MODEL RUNS WILL HELP PINPOINT THE AREAS OF HEAVIEST RAIN. THE GFS ENSEMBLES ARE SHOWING VERY LITTLE ENSEMBLE SPREAD AMONG ITS MEMBERS...WHICH INCREASES THE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST...EVEN THOUGH IT IS STILL FIVE DAYS AWAY.

Not so sure. I don't see the twist it had earlier this AM. It has convection but not organized convection. It may go orange but I think that might be a false "hope".

I will continue for now to be in the camp of thinking that it will possibly hold together and possibly be a threat once it gets near the western caribbean. From there, as we all know, if the conditions are right, and given all that heat potential that has not been tapped even once, a dangerous storm is a possibility.

Although, this season has been an odd one, so maybe the (cliche) that systems that don't generate by the time they reach the Islands they don't generate until they reach the central caribbean. The East Caribbean has been known to be a dead zone.

But again this season has been an odd one so who knows.

Still in watching mode not predicting mode for 92L.

Odd, yes, The western caribbean has been the dead zone this year not even a TD , so far. Most of the season systems came from CV waves , except for Claudette of course, in the GOM,

Looks like 92L will pass mostly north of Trinidad. Should get some nice rains though. Grenada and St.Vincent will probably feel more weather than Trinidad. First showers from the system falling this afternoon here, and some thunder to the north. No problem with that at all...

It's been a long time so maybe it was 2003. I just recall having a 24 incher in February of that year - on top of a good 6 incher just a few days prior. It may have been 2003 now that I think about it. Some family came down with my newborn niece (of 3 months) and we got hammered with the storm. She will be 7+3 months this coming February.

So you're correct.

2003.

That's about right....where I live in Monmouth County NJ we get it good about every six or seven years. All signs point to us getting it this year.

Yeah you guys got slammed with the Presidents Day Blizzard of 2003. 2 blizzards that year, one in February and December.

I can tell you that here in E-Central-NJ, since about March 20th or so, we have been below normal in temperature and above normal in precip. The long range forecasts continue this path. Should be a very interesting winter for the Mid-Atlantic and North East coastal regions.

Could be a big one.

Haven't had a big winter since 2002 in my region. Just 30 miles north however they've had a couple of heavy snow winters since then just not here.

You mean 2003 right? 2002 only had one snowstorm on January 19, well on Long Island that is.. After I moved, 2003 started a train of winter storms for my old hometown. However, there was one very early snowstorm in December of 2002.

Okay I understand, I mostly base it off dry air for now. Its covered with it right now. Shear is low but that is really negated by the amount of dry air in the area. TD 2 regenerated into ANA because there was not much dry air in the area and shear went lower, Fred didn't because even though there was lower shear it was constantly abused by dry air. In Henri's case, I believe it will be the same as Fred. A naked swirl pulsing with convection from time to time but eventually losing it.

To add to that, futuremet made an excellent point that Henri might be heading more under a deep layer ridge which suppresses the cyclone ability to produce deep convection by placing a cap over.

kinda agree with the part that 92L is next in line, we can monitor Henri for regeneration but 92L seems to the focus over the upcoming days.

Regeneration is possible, but not likely, I think that if Henri where to once again become a TD, it will be around the vicinity of the Turks & Caicos. 92L will most likely, like I said be our next TD and will not interact with land, imo.