^ I think it would be, given the pairs and ice dance holding him back from a team medal. However, him being in the top 3 in both team and individual events would certainly not be a surprise -- in fact, it's an expectation.

Gold - Canada
Silver - Russia
Bronze - US

China can really spoil Canada's chances of gold though with Li ahead of Osmond or P/T ahead of the Canadian pairs, so I'm sure the hope will be that they don't make the finals (which they probably won't given their ice dance team).

So... in this baseline scenario, Russia comes out 5 ahead of the US, and Canada comes out 4. I think that would severely damage US chances. Now... if the US pairs can beat some of the teams ahead, that prevents a catastrophic outcome... and maybe P/T beat the Canadians to further limit the bleeding... I think it is fascinating to play out all the different possibilities.

I think men's will still be critical for the US. Pairs is a bit of a toss-up for them so that's why I've put them 3rd, as I think that will deny the US team a gold, and without a great showing in men's they will be denied silver too.

Is it for sure than Patrick Chan will not skate twice in the team event? I think Canada still has the edge with Chan, Virtue and Moir, ttwo strong pairs teams and pretty good lady.

Oh, this would be good to know if Chan and V/M both plan on doing both segments. The pairs will likely be split, and women's should be Osmond for both segments. I'm guessing Chan would want to do both segments if he wants to secure a gold, as Reynolds is a rather significant question mark.

I agree with Canadianskaterguy about the U.S. men. I think we have already decided where Castelini and Snapir will reasonably land, so they are in a great position. If they do better than expected, they are the heros. If they don't. oh well.

Davis and White will get 1 or 2, the ladies will chug into the station pretty much as expected. But will Jeremy Abbott score 90 in the short program or 70?

So... in this baseline scenario, Russia comes out 5 ahead of the US, and Canada comes out 4. I think that would severely damage US chances. Now... if the US pairs can beat some of the teams ahead, that prevents a catastrophic outcome... and maybe P/T beat the Canadians to further limit the bleeding... I think it is fascinating to play out all the different possibilities.

P/T will not do the Team Event either, so scratch that. A lot of top Pairs are skipping the Team Event for obvious reasons, even V/T are moaning about having to do it. The only top Pairs who appear unfazed are the Canadian pairs. V/T are under the gun after two back to back catastrophic free skates. What appeared to be sure bet just a month ago looks not so sure anymore. The bottom line is V/T needs to stop splashing on ice, they have used up their free pass allotments for the season and cannot continue to bomb or the Olympics will not end well for them.

I see what you mean, but shouldn't "Team" event suggest that it's the team's overall performance that should decide in the end? In Ski jumping, the team event is decided by adding each team member's points. Same with a relay, be it in Biathlon or Swimming: they don't do 4 separate races with a point system, but it's the added time of all the team that counts.
What I mean is that the fear of "bombing" a competition should be similar to what it is in the individual event: you're far off the lead if you bomb.
Concrete numerical example for the Mathman:
Team A: 90+70+70+70 points after SP = 300 points
Team B: 91+71+71+40 = 273 points
I'd like Team A to be in the lead over Team B. With the points system as it is, team B is far ahead, if the category where Team B got only 40 points had some other teams score more than 70.

The challenge of adding up all the points in lieu of placement points is that the factored scoring of the various disciplines are inherently inequitable. Namely, Ladies' PCS is at 80% of what Men get. A top male skater can potentially rack up close to 300 points in total whereas a lady who can break 200 in total is already super impressive. Yet, the man will still net a whopping 50% more points than a top lady, giving the men's event a disproportionally higher influence on the final outcome.

I think he would be lucky if he gets one - the only wins he ever had was a Gold at NHK in 2012 and the GPF in 2013, excluding Senior B which are not very relevant, never won a single ISU Championship, losing to Kevin Reynolds at 4CC. Aside from the highly questionable scoring (e.g. here : Asada's 3 X < , + Fall, + SEQ Free Skate was rated as "Phenomenal" based on the 130+ Score ) at the GPF this season, his scores have been quite mediocre where his average PCS is about 80. Furthermore, he pretty much fell or botched every single 4S attempt in competition. When Abbott won GPF, he got no where in the World Championship that season even though he was promptly crowned as the U.S. Champion. He is still a favorite to win a medal of some color though realistically, it's far from a sure bet.

So... in this baseline scenario, Russia comes out 5 ahead of the US, and Canada comes out 4. I think that would severely damage US chances. Now... if the US pairs can beat some of the teams ahead, that prevents a catastrophic outcome... and maybe P/T beat the Canadians to further limit the bleeding... I think it is fascinating to play out all the different possibilities.

I think he would be lucky if he gets one - the only wins he ever had was a Gold at NHK in 2012 and the GPF in 2013, excluding Senior B which are not very relevant, never won a single ISU Championship, losing to Kevin Reynolds at 4CC. Aside from the highly questionable scoring (e.g. here : Asada's 3 X < , + Fall, + SEQ Free Skate was rated as "Phenomenal" based on the 130+ Score ) at the GPF this season, his scores have been quite mediocre where his average PCS is about 80. Furthermore, he pretty much fell or botched every single 4S attempt in competition. When Abbott won GPF, he got no where in the World Championship that season even though he was promptly crowned as the U.S. Champion. He is still a favorite to win a medal of some color though realistically, it's far from a sure bet.

True, true. But Patrick Chan can't win all the medals. Someone has to get silver and bronze.

US is a clutch team like we have seen in the WTT though a different format. Somehow the American skaters will pull it out. I think Canada and Russia might be overranked a bit. Who knows where the Russian dancers will rank and or Plushy. He hasn't faced the Japanese, americans or Chan for the most part.