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TROPICAL STORM DORA DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT SAT AUG 07 1999
THE CENTER IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE ON REGULAR IR IMAGES AND WE HAVE
NOT RECEIVED ANY NEW MICROWAVE DATA LATELY. THE CENTER APPEARS TO
BE ON THE NORTHEAST EDGE OF THE CONVECTION. DORA HAS SLOWED DOWN
AND IS NOW MOVING 280/10. THIS IS PROBABLY DUE TO DORA'S PROXIMITY
TO A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. MOST OF THE MODELS
...PRIMARILY THE AVN DEPENDENT...CONTINUE TO SHOW A WEST OR
WEST-SOUTHWEST TRACK IN RESPONSE TO A STRONG REBUILD OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. ONLY NOGAPS AND GFDI INDICATE A MORE NORTHERLY
COMPONENT. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CONTINUES WITH A GENERAL WESTWARD
TRACK ASSUMING THAT BOTH AVN AND UK ARE CORRECT IN REBUILDING THE
RIDGE.
DORA HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION AS INDICATED BY LATEST
DVORAK T-NUMBERS. THE GDFL GRADUALLY WEAKENS THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
BUT BECAUSE...SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST MODEL...MY FAVORITE...INSISTS
ON BRINGING DORA TO 81 KNOTS...STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED IN THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK. MOST OF THE INCREASE IN INTENSITY FORECAST
BY SHIPS IS ATTRIBUTED TO WARM SST AND A LITTLE TO LOW SHEAR.
AVILA
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 07/1500Z 14.5N 109.0W 45 KTS
12HR VT 08/0000Z 14.8N 110.5W 55 KTS
24HR VT 08/1200Z 15.0N 112.5W 65 KTS
36HR VT 09/0000Z 15.3N 114.5W 75 KTS
48HR VT 09/1200Z 15.5N 116.5W 80 KTS
72HR VT 10/1200Z 15.5N 120.0W 85 KTS
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