Injury is the great scourge of pro hockey. Many careers have been cut short or knocked off the rails, with Bobby Orr, Eric Lindros and now, possibly, Sidney Crosby, the first three names that come to mind.

The game’s greatest myth revolves around the tragedy of injury. In The Cult of Hockey’s masthead, you will see an image of Howie Morenz, the greatest player of the first half of the 20th century. Morenz died at age 34, some say of a broken heart after he suffered a career-ending leg injury.

I say all this as a pre-amble to my second look at how injury has cut or altered the careers of top NHL point producers in recent years, and how that might play out in the Ales Hemsky contract negotiations.

The Journal’s Hall-of-Fame hockey writer Jim Matheson is now saying the Oilers might consider a two-year deal with Hemsky, which appears to be some movement from the team.

Here’s the list of players since 2000-2001 where injury has arguably had that kind of impact (Note: I should say this isn’t a scientific study, it’s a back-of-the-envelope survey. You will take it for what it’s worth, I am sure.).

How does this apply to Hemsky

If the Oilers pay Hemsky as a top-line winger for the next five years — as some Oilers fans are advocating — how will that work out? Will the Oilers get five injury-free, high-production seasons out of him?

The best predictor of the future is the past, and in the past three seasons, Hemsky has been knocked out, off and on, with concussion and shoulder problems. Since he’s come back this season, he’s not played as well as in the past.

As case histories from the past decade demonstrate, this is worrisome, though not fatal. Players who start to get clusters of injuries are often knocked out for good. Some of them bounce back to their former level of production, but one crucial thing to remember is that in a world of long-term guaranteed contracts and a hard-salary cap, the risk is all on the team offering such a deal to an oft-injured player.

At the same time, as the Oilers project forward, it’s likely that the choice power play minutes, and possibly the toughest even strength minutes, will go to other younger right wingers, namely Jordan Eberle. Eberle has come into his own as a scorer this year. He’s already taken Hemsky’s spot on the top power play unit, and I doubt that will change. Eberle may also develop a sounder two-way game in the next few years and be able to succeed against the toughest competition at even strength, though that is more of a stretch.

One other factor: the Oilers need solid veteran players if they’re going to start winning more than they lose. Hemsky, if healthy, can be that solid veteran.

When it comes to his injury risk, it’s clear from the case histories of other players that by next season both Hemsky and the Oilers will know if he’s going to return to form. Of course, the problem is that Hemsky’s contract is up this summer, and the NHL’s trade deadline is at the end of the month, which forces a decision upon all parties right now.

It strikes me as rash to offer Hemsky a five-year deal at first-line money, given both his current injury and production issues, as well as Eberle’s rise in the line-up.

It could well be that Hemsky is more valuable to a team that needs him in that first-line role, which gives him some leverage, though other teams might also be scared off by his recent issues. That said, Hemsky will only need one buyer in July to get a massive deal.

The risk of signing him right now is mitigated if Oiler team owner Daryl Katz is prepared to bury Hemsky in the minors if Hemsky fails to return to form next year. This is what the New York Rangers have done with expensive and disappointing Wade Redden. So if the Oilers are to sign Hemsky to a new deal, the team might agree to a no-trade clause, but definitely not to a no-movement clause.

Would Katz bury a big contract of an unproductive player for the good of the team? He did it with grumbling, unproductive Sheldon Souray.

As for the amount of this deal, if you sign Hemsky to big dollars — and he becomes a solid second-line winger for the team — does that really make sense? It’s apparent that Eberle, Taylor Hall and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins have it in them to perform at a high level and demand major raises, taking up a massive amount of cap space, but will other players also break through?

How will the following perform and what might they demand: Magnus Paajarvi, Anton Lander, Jeff Petry, Ladi Smid, Linus Omark, Teemu Hartikainen, Devan Dubnyk and Oscar Klefbom, not to mention the Oilers upcoming first-round pick?

My take?

The sanest course of action is to offer Hemsky a short-term deal, one or two years, three at most, for an inflated amount, as the cap concerns and pressures should only become truly pressing as the team improves down the road.

A one year at $6.5-to-7.0 million or two years at $5.5 million, something like that, might be enticing enough for Hemsky to grab, while protecting the Oilers from a long-term hit.

If Hemsky wants longer term, a deal in the $4.o-to-5.0 million per year range might make sense, but only contingent on Katz’s willingness to eat salary. And, again, any deal should not include a no-movement clause.

If Hemsky won’t accept one of these options, he should be moved at the trade deadline.

As a fan, I’d be happy to see the Oilers keep this player. But as someone who wants to see the team keeps its options open, and have its best chance at winning, it’s evident any kind of major, long-term deal for Hemsky isn’t the best option.

Whatever the case, good luck to Hemsky. He’s bee a helluva good player here in Edmonton and seems like a decent sort.

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