re: 1/28/13 Basketball-old kelly k. and spreadsheets DO NOT WORK bet thread-NSFW(Posted by maclauer on 1/28/13 at 9:25 pm to BGUT)

quote:We shall battle through it!! I like to look at weekly results versus the daily approach. The daily results was giving me ulcers! Week is early lets get it back little by little!!

or we could go 15-1 and get it back quickly

quote:Mac, does your system account for teams that are on a long road stretch and are tired and weary?

home-road splits but I don't have anything in the formula about 4 games in 5 nights. can't just trust numbers, full-game picks take qualitative assessment as well (public consensus, match-ups, effort, fatigue, etc)

Bankroll Truth and Basics There’s an ugly truth about sports gambling. Everyone preaches “bankroll management”. You’ve heard people say a million times “one unit should equal one percent of your bankroll”. The fact of the matter is that most people don’t have $10k of cash on hand they’re gambling with to make $100 wagers, and those that do are usually betting more than $100/game. I subscribe to the 1% theory, but in a variety of methods. If you think that I’m comfortable having $30k (which is my effective bankroll) in 5Dimes, BetOnline, Bookmaker, etc…you’re wrong. Anyone that played online poker should know better than that. I have no problem depositing a few grand, and building it up, and then withdrawing my profits monthly. If I bust an account, I can always deposit (Lord knows there are a million deposit bonuses). The question is, how did I come up with a $30k bankroll? Did I start with $100 and grind my way up to $30k? I wish. The reality is that I have about $10k in cash spread between various sites. I have another $10k in credit at each of two locals. I have $20k in my savings account “earmarked” for gambling and fortunately I seldom have to tap into it. When I bet a game, I traditionally spread my $300 bet between 3 sites (including local sites), assuming they all have the same line. If I’m getting a better line someplace else, I may put all $300 on one site, but I try and spread it out as much as possible.

re: 1/28/13 Basketball-old kelly k. and spreadsheets DO NOT WORK bet thread-NSFW(Posted by BGUT on 1/28/13 at 9:27 pm to BGUT)

Part 2

How I got to a $30k bankroll If you’re not in a position where you have $10k you can start with, look at your budget and ask yourself what a monthly amount you can afford to lose would be and annualize that number. If it’s $500, I would annualize that number to $6,000 and I would save up for 3 months to $1500 before I began. Now your units are $60 (using a theoretical $6k bankroll) and you’ve got 25 units to start out with. Every month, add $500 to your bankroll. It may be down to $1k or up to $2500. Either way, add $500 (or whatever you can afford) monthly. Before long, if you practice effective bankroll management, your initial $1500 exceed that $6k between contributions and consistent winning. Eventually you’ll have enough built up that you won’t have to contribute to the bankroll every month, you just stash some in a money market as local collateral and earn interest This is exactly how I got to $30k. Obviously this has taken some time, and discipline is CRUCIAL, but it’s very possible

re: 1/28/13 Basketball-old kelly k. and spreadsheets DO NOT WORK bet thread-NSFW(Posted by BGUT on 1/28/13 at 9:27 pm to BGUT)

Part 3

The Importance of Locals Every town in America has a “local guy”. For those that are outside the US, there are all kinds of casinos that offer lines of credit. Unless you’re in Vegas, that’s not currently possible for sports betting (and frankly I’ve never investigated getting a marker for sports in Vegas, but I assume it would be no different than a marker for blackjack or craps). Finding a local can sometimes be a challenge, but they’re definitely out there. If you can find a local poker game, you can likely find a “local guy”. The beautiful thing of the modern day local is that more and more they’re using websites. This works wonderfully, especially for things like futures. If you bet team season win totals with a local, you’re completely taking the time value of money factor out of the equation (which is a popular argument against futures). The reality it’s possible that you could open an account with a local, never give him a dime, and just collect from him. It’s like having a credit card where you never have to pay the bill but get all of the rewards points and cash back. Most importantly…use locals responsibly. I think these folks are doing a public service and most that I know are genuinely good people. While most guys don’t break legs and beat you up anymore, they will show up at your work if you avoid them (I’ve seen it happen) and make your life very uncomfortable. Make sure you have the money to pay them. I don’t recommend using one until you do.

re: 1/28/13 Basketball-old kelly k. and spreadsheets DO NOT WORK bet thread-NSFW(Posted by BGUT on 1/28/13 at 9:28 pm to BGUT)

FINAL Part 4

Why Volume Matters Quick math quiz: You bet 10 games/month at $100/game. You win 60%. Win $600 – Loss $440 (loss plus juice) = $160 net win You bet 100 games/month at $100/game. You win 55%. Win $5500 – Loss $4950 (loss plus juice) = $550 net win While 100 games/month seems like a lot, it’s really only 3.3 games/day or 25/week. That’s pretty standard volume if you follow us here. If you’re a winning better, it’s about grinding out wins through volume, not chasing unrealistic win rates. Professional poker players can almost always tell you their hourly win rate at a particular game ($2/5 NL, etc). They want to get as much time as possible in games that they feel they have an edge. Playing many games when you’re a +EV bettor is no different. Sure, there are times when it’s best to pass. But if you’re a +EV bettor, volume is your friend.