Thursday, September 22, 2016

I read a quote from a statistician recently which suggested that defending is more difficult to quantify than attacking and that only
twenty percent of statistics in sports relate to defending. I beg to differ. On
the contrary, in terms of how you can remedy problems and predict future
outcomes, I'd say that defensive statistics should account for a majority.

A statistics program which I'll have on the market by the
end of October will have subtler scientific elements which should allow the
Homer Simpsons of this world to quantify who their best defenders are, but in
the meantime, we can stick with old(ish) school methods and simply go back over every score
conceded with a fine tooth comb and see which defender was culpable (something I think all serious managers should always
do).

In my initial post-match article on Sunday's All-Ireland final clash between Dublin and Mayo, amongst other things, I had noted that Dublin had
conceded six points and Mayo 1-3 needlessly and unnecessarily. Or as I call
them, they had conceded "Grade 3 Concessions".

Monday, September 19, 2016

In my preview to Sunday's All-Ireland football final between
Dublin and Mayo I had suggested that it seemed unlikely to me that Dublin were
as far ahead of Mayo as was the general perception, and that being almost 3/1
on favourites flattered them somewhat. This was based on the fact that in
Dublin's four championship games against Mayo and Kerry in the last two
seasons, despite attacking phenomenally, that there had been some striking
pattern relating to defending and how they fared when they couldn't get their
kick-out off quickly.

Friday, September 16, 2016

As Mayo enter the cauldron of an
eighth All-Ireland final in 27 years, the bookies have summed up the general
sentiment around the country, that poor old Mayo will once again be lambs to
the slaughter. Dublin are almost 3/1 on favourites.On one hand it's difficult to
argue. In 31 championship and knock-out league games under Jim Gavin's
stewardship, their record stands at 29 victories, one draw and merely one loss.
Mayo, in eight attempts in league and championship have failed to beat them
once, earning one draw in their heroic comeback in last year's semi-final.
Could there be any hope at all?

Considering the fact that Mayo
drew with Dublin in last year's semi-final and led by four points well into the
second half of the replay you'd have to assume that it would be naive to assume
that they don't enter this Sunday's
final with at least a puncher's chance. The question of course is are
they as good or better under their current management team as they were under
their previous one?

Considering the fact that Dublin under Jim Gavin to date, in
four seasons, have a lost just single game in 31 championship and knock-out
league matches and that Mayo have somewhat snuck into the final having failed
to win Connaught for the season in six, it's easy to see why Mayo are such
significant underdogs coming into this Sunday's final.

There's no doubting that Dublin, not alone have immense fire
power, but their semi-final comeback against Kerry illustrates that they have
huge levels of composure and character. That's not to mention the lesser
commented fact that there is unprecedented technical detail gone into the
manner in which they attack, pulling key forward threats into wide positions,
creating ample space for defenders, midfielders and other forwards to attack
into more space in the centre. All things considered, they're a pretty
phenomenal force to be reckoned with.While their attacking prowess is well noted, could there be
however, chinks elsewhere that Mayo could potentially exploit? Let's not
forget, after all, that it's only a year since they drew the first semi-final
and led by four points coming well into the second half of a replay. Were these
displays flash in the pan stuff by Mayo, or could they potentially be closer to
the Dubs than many people imagine?

Since Armagh arrived on the scene implementing what has now
become known as the blanket defence and Tyrone applied it to devastating effect
in 2003, Gealic football tactics have evolved significantly. This evolution is
now close to the point I had long pontificated was a natural evolution whereby
most teams are now applying a sweeper, even the mighty Kingdom. The interesting
point to note, however, is that while all sweepers may appear equal, some are
more equal than others!

The tactical scenarios which saw a sweeper at both ends for
Dublin's semi-final against Kerry and will almost certainly be replicated in
this Sunday's final allude to a bigger theoretical, structural set up than may
appear to be the case at a glance. The case of Dublin "sweeper" Cian
O'Sulivan alludes to the matter at hand.

I have argued, until recent tactical developments at least,
that the application of a sweeper was simply a very logical tactical evolution
and procedure. The reason is very simple.

It's now 27 years since Mayo lost the first of what would be
a startling seven All-Ireland finals on the trot from their 1989 loss to Cork
to their 2013 loss to Dublin. The theory has long since followed that they
bottle in finals, something which obviously doesn't auger well for this
Sunday's final clash with Dublin. Is it, however, really credible that seven
different teams from the same county, spanning 24 years could really have some
sort of culturally shared psychological weakness which prevents them from
producing their best stuff on the big day? Or that the weight of history now
weighs so heavily on their shoulders that they have come to be chronic chokers
on the big stage? At face value it certainly appears as though there could be.
To lose seven finals out of seven, all things being equal, the chances of it
merely being a coincidence runs at less than one percent.