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Monday, February 28, 2011

Wrong again in the counts. Its not like I have to change the whole count but just the smaller fractals . We are doing that 5th wave to complete the larger 3rd wave and this really looks like that rare Expanding DIAGONAL. We had a very good rally today . Only to give up the gains in what was the BIGGEST hourly sell-off I have ever seen ; to give up nearly 150 points in the NIFTY .

I have a feeling i have got this correct . One thing I read about Expanding Diagonals is that the vth wave travel faster and cover greater distance. So it really looks like we are headed down in a big way . My favourite target 5135 . Its the 161.8% of 1/A. Lets see. Thanks.

Sunday, February 27, 2011

I got two charts . One long term and one very short term. First the long term one . This is WolfeWave which i saw recently. Bad news for Bulls. It looks like we are heading down in a big way . The target shows 3400-3600 area. Not sure about the time . But we are in a IMPULSIVE BEAR market .Remember that .See the chart below:

The other chart below is a very short term one . The 5 minute chart showing target for the next 2-3 days . While it definitely helps to know the log term trend but this short term is really more important to us because the options contracts are at most 3 months long and we really cant buy 3800 PUTs for next year and sit on our asses sipping beer. All investors must be TRADERS here.And make quick decisions. So lets see below .
In one of the post below " Pretty charts and FORECAST " i had posted the same chart . I am adding one more thing , the WolfWave to it.

Things to watch here are the red lines and blue line. We came back after hitting that red lower line and that was also around 78.6% retracement of ( i ). So i consider it as ( ii ) .Now on Monday keep a look at these lines and point c particularly. Since elliot wave rules state that ( ii ) cannot retrace more than the origin of ( i ) .
The blue trend line also seems like its broken and we are starting the ( iii ). Finally we ave a WW pattern where the green line is showing target of around 5120 area.

Dont worry .We will not have to wait too long . It will be all clear by Monday, i.e tomorrow.
Thanks.

Friday, February 25, 2011

In one of the intra-day updates for NIFTY below , i said the maximum upside was 5339 which was the 38.2% retracement . Isnt it such a good feeling that exactly the same point will be touched by the retracing wave.

We are doing the 5th wave of this C ( 3rd ) and inside that we have now completed the ( 4 ) th . We are looking at 5 minute charts because its very important to know which wave you are in to be able to make good entry and exit points. After hitting that 38.2% retracement level it sharply turned downwards , only to retrace again . So i guess we have our ( i ) and ( ii ) of this ( 5 ) th wave . The chart is shown below .

That ( ii ) retracement was a strong retracement touching a little over 78.6% . So we can expect the ( iv ) to be a short retracement clocking around 23 to 38 % . But that we will see later. So now according to our count we should be doing the DREADED ( iii ) . So bulls should be heading for the BUNKERS on Monday . Most probably we will be completing the 5th wave ( i.e ( iii ) , ( iv ) and (v ) ) on Monday itself. That would also complete this C wave . That would mean we will be seeing a more than 150 points fall on MONDAY !!!!!

This hourly chart shows where we actually did today's bounce . Exactly at the trend lines . That came at 5232. If that breaks , the FALL would be hard.

Yesterday we completed the 3 with the BIG fall. Since 2 retraced exactly 61% of the 1st , we shouldnt see more than 39 % retracement of this 3 by the 4. That means maximum upside 5339. Dont know how far down we go. But 5118 looks like a good target .But we will definitely be having a very good rally may be by next week to 5600 area atleast .

People are talking about Silver targeting $40 as well as $52 ----$56. In the long term those targets may be easily
surpassed. But for now not much Upside is seen . $36 may be a good area for shorting Silver. It may even go to $40. But targets for Silver is around $22----$25 area.

Both the charts below showing correction ahead. The sell zone however has not arrived.

LOOK at the post below . Yesterday I told that we are doing the vth of this C wave . Yesterday we completed ( ii ) and had just started ( iii ). See the PLUNGE today. Absolute massacre .We opened GAP down and then no stopping. When the bears have their day even the best of the bulls are no match . Massive 545 points fall in BSE and 174 point fall in NSE. Dont worry . Bulls will have their day. But we still have a long way to fall.

5300 PUTS were selling for .60 paise today . At the end of the day it was 29 rupees!!!!!!!!! Lucky bastard whoever got that.

Wednesday, February 23, 2011

So , according to our counts , the 4th of this C wave has already completed when we reversed from 5598 which retraced almost 61% of the the previous 3rd wave. So lets look at a short term chart .

So , we are inside the 5th wave . Inside that we have completed ( i ) and today ( ii ) . As that 5 min chart shows , ( ii ) was a diagonal triangle .After hitting that upper trend line it came back strongly to break the lower trend line . So now we will be doing that ( iii ) downwards. I expect Nifty to go down for some 2 days atleast breaking that important 5400 level support. The targets for this 5th wave is 4950 --5000 area.

Tuesday, February 15, 2011

May be ....from tomorrow.......I guess all this rally was just because we had fallen TOO FAR TOO FAST.
May be NIFTY managed to break the trend line . But its already looking exhausted. And what more. The Technical Indicators are rolling over. Its not that pronounced in the daily charts but certainly in the 15 minute chart that I am going to paste it here. Note the GAP that we have to fill. So , does the 5 th wave starts here.

Friday, February 11, 2011

I dont know how much this would help. When i saw yesterdays flash crash in APPLE, and was looking at the 5 min charts , I thought the pattern was familiar. And it looked almost like................................. NIFTY 2008 .
You might want to go SHORT APPLE for the next 6 days.

See the chart below . On Monday expect the markets to slide along the red line . It hits the intersection of the PINK and RED line at around 5290. And then starts the BIG (v)th wave down to around 4880 in 3 - 4 days. LOAD up on your PUTS.

I had submitted application for Google Adsense.Was disappointed . This was the reply mail. I got rejected twice.
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Hello JONAK DOWERAH,

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Now i have no idea why my small innocent blog cant have some ads placed on it. I know i cant earn thousands from it and I will never get 10000 hits in a day. But still it would have felt nice if I had some ads placed there.Still dont understand the reason . Can someone explain.

You see that post just below. Well , I think we should forget about that Nifty 5450 target for a while now.See the chart below which is a 15 minute chart. I think 5028 is definitely on the cards. The patterns look so similar. The base of that falling wedge is around 5000. 5028 is the 261.8% extension of wave A.

Sunday, February 6, 2011

I found this chart somewhere. There wasn't much commentary along with it. Just that Printing billions can do a lot to BOOST sentiment. And with the FED Hawks already talking QE3 , we may really see it . But may be after a little correction now.

Saturday, February 5, 2011

The Indian Markets had a huge down day on Friday and Nifty broke the Crucial 5400 level(on HUGE volumes). Monday will be very interesting. Egypt is building up . We shouldn't forget that important LEGATUS event (here:::---http://legatus.org/public/index.asp) . I had plenty of spare time , so i thought of working out the Fibonacci retracements and extensions for the current count we are looking at . Chart below :

[ ii ] retraces 23.6% of [ i ].

[ iii ] is 123.6% of [ i ].

[ iv ] retraces 38.2% of [ iii ].

[ v ] is 61.8% of [ i ].

A retraces 38.2% of the 5-wave impulse. A was a 5-wave motive wave forecasting a zig-zag. And it has been a zig-zag . B was a 3 wave corrective wave retracing 75.61% of A. C is already looking a huge downward moving wave.Usually C has targets 61.8% , or 100% or 161.8% of A. We have already crossed far below the first two distances. the 161.8% extension of A is 5135.But the again if we take 161.8% of I , we get to the target 5007 and 138.2% extension target is 5125. Looks like we are hitting these targets in 7-days .
One after another stop is being taken out with full force. Looks like its game over. 2008 all over again. This is what 2008 looked like. See the stocks started going down in January with a huge nearly 2000 point drop in the Nifty in 2 weeks at one point.

This again shows that NEWS don't move the markets. I have a hunch that 2011 is going to be worse.

The Indian Markets did what its supposed to do . Go down . A huge 441 move down in Sensex. Also Nifty broke the CRUCIAL 5400 level everyones been talking about. Nothing more to see there . More downmoves coming in the next few days. Just found some more funny pictures.

Wednesday, February 2, 2011

You can always count differently . The below is my PRIMARY. Its a B of an ABC . B's completed. So C starts now. And looking at the massive losses since start of the year , it really looks like we are in a massive impulsive wave downward.

423% of [ 1 ] is 6384 . The Nifty TOPPED out at 6338. [ 4 ] is 38.2% of [ 3 ].

Tuesday, February 1, 2011

Lets look at the count that I am concentrating now where the uptrend had started back in May last year.

Going by that count we are in the 3 of a C wave here. 1 and 2 are shown and the parallel lines shows the retracement from 1 to 2 which was a little less than 23.6%. Then started the 3rd wave. My favorite for this 3rd wave is that 138.2% extension of 1 , i.e 5135. Yesterday we went as low as 5410 to retrace back to 5507 and then today we opened up and touched 5561 which is exactly 38.2% retracement from 5410 low. So we can count it as the 2nd wave of this 3rd wave. So looking for more downside in the coming 3 days at least. Also it looks like a bearish engulfing pattern appeared today.The market is also much lower than its 200DMA for the first time since June last year.

Added a couple of other classic technical indicators as well. On the above chart we see that the MACD is clearly showing downtrend. The ADX (green line) is clearly moving towards 40 . Shows that the downtrend is only growing stronger.The RSI is at 30 but i think it has lot of room to move downwards.Expecting to slide along the lower edge of the Bollinger Band in this downtrend. Looks like its 2008 all over again for the Indian markets . At that time too the correction had started in January.

Another important result fo today :RELIANCE INDUSTRIES. The biggest stock in the markets has broken 900 . Shocker for a lot of people.Lets take a look at its chart too. I have to tell you this . I had never seen this chart . It had been trading in a range since the last two years.!!!!!Since it went up from the March 2009 low .
Looks like that break down of 900 is REALLY REALLY crucial.

All this is happening in spite of the dollar going down .The Indian markets were related inversely to the dollar at least to the A point. This is what happens to a market when its TIME IS UP. I cant even imagine what will happen if we see a massive dollar rally some time later in the year. For now , the BEAR HAT is firmly placed on my head.

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Words of WISDOM

"The reason is that a man may see straight and clearly and yet become impatient or doubtful when the market takes its time about doing as he figured it must do. That is why so many men in Wall Street, who are not at all in the sucker class, not even in the third grade, nevertheless lose money. The market does not beat them. They beat themselves, because though they have brains they cannot sit tight."

---Jesse Livermore

"What beat me was not having brains enough to stick to my own game – that is, to play the market only when I was satisfied that precedents favoured my play. There is the plain fool, who does the wrong thing at all times everywhere, but there is also the Wall Street fool, who thinks he must trade all the time. No man can have adequate reasons for buying or selling stocks daily – or sufficient knowledge to make his play an intelligent play."