Florida shivers; Hot Arctic-Cold Continents pattern is back

Cold air sweeping southwards behind the fierce snowstorm that roared through the Upper Midwest over the weekend is bringing record low temperatures over much of the Southeast this morning. However, preliminary indications are that Central Florida's orange groves fared better than expected, and there were no reports of widespread damage to the orange crop. Record lows this morning included 32°F at West Palm Beach, 50°F in Key West, and 20°F in Jacksonville. Cold air flowing over the relatively warm waters of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario are creating heavy lake-effect snows, with 5 – 9 inches of new snow expected near Cleveland, OH today, and 2 – 5 inches near Syracuse, NY.

Hot Arctic-Cold ContinentsI'm in San Francisco this week for the world's largest gathering of Earth scientists, the annual American Geophysical Union (AGU) conference. Over 15,000 scientists have descended upon the city, and there are a ridiculous number of fascinating talks on every conceivable aspect of Earth science, including, of course, climate change. One talk I attended yesterday was called, "Hot Arctic-Cold Continents: Hemispheric Impacts of Arctic Change.” The talk was given by Dr. Jim Overland of NOAA's Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory, one of the world's experts on Arctic weather and climate (I spent many long months flying in the Arctic with him during the three Arctic field programs I participated in during the late 1980s.) Dr. Overland discussed the remarkable winter of 2009 – 2010, which brought record snowstorms to Europe and the U.S. East Coast, along with the coldest temperatures in 25 years, but also brought the warmest winter on record to Canada and much of the Arctic. He demonstrated that the Arctic is normally dominated by low pressure in winter, and a “Polar Vortex” of counter-clockwise circulating winds develops surrounding the North Pole. However, during the winter of 2009-2010, high pressure replaced low pressure over the Arctic, and the Polar Vortex weakened and even reversed at times, with a clockwise flow of air replacing the usual counter-clockwise flow of air around the pole. This unusual flow pattern allowed cold air to spill southwards and be replaced by warm air moving poleward. This pattern is kind of like leaving the refrigerator door ajar--the refrigerator warms up, but all of the cold air spills out into the house.

The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)This is all part of a natural climate pattern known as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), which took on its most extreme configuration in 145 years of record keeping during the winter of 2009 – 2010. The NAO is a climate pattern in the North Atlantic Ocean of fluctuations in the difference of sea-level pressure between the Icelandic Low and the Azores High. It is one of oldest known climate oscillations--seafaring Scandinavians described the pattern several centuries ago. Through east-west oscillation motions of the Icelandic Low and the Azores High, the NAO controls the strength and direction of westerly winds and storm tracks across the North Atlantic. A large difference in the pressure between Iceland and the Azores (positive NAO) leads to increased westerly winds and mild and wet winters in Europe. Positive NAO conditions also cause the Icelandic Low to draw a stronger south-westerly flow of air over eastern North America, preventing Arctic air from plunging southward. In contrast, if the difference in sea-level pressure between Iceland and the Azores is small (negative NAO), westerly winds are suppressed, allowing Arctic air to spill southwards into eastern North America more readily. Negative NAO winters tend to bring cold winters to Europe and the U.S. East Coast, but leads to very warm conditions in the Arctic, since all the cold air spilling out of the Arctic gets replaced by warm air flowing poleward.

The winter of 2009 - 2010 had the most extreme negative NAO since record keeping began in 1865. This "Hot Arctic-Cold Continents pattern", resulting in a reversal of Polar Vortex and high pressure replacing low pressure over the Arctic, had occurred previously in only four winters during the past 160 years—1969, 1963, 1936, and 1881. Dr. Overland called the winter of 2009 – 2010 at least as surprising at the record 2007 loss of Arctic sea ice. He suspected that Arctic sea ice loss was a likely culprit for the event, since Francis et al. (2009) found that during 1979 - 2006, years that had unusually low summertime Arctic sea ice had a 10 - 20% reduction in the temperature difference between the Equator and North Pole. This resulted in a weaker jet stream with slower winds that lasted a full six months, through fall and winter. The weaker jet caused a weaker Aleutian Low and Icelandic Low during the winter, resulting in a more negative North Atlantic Oscillation, allowing cold air to spill out of the Arctic and into Europe and the Eastern U.S. Dr. Overland also stressed that natural chaos in the weather/climate system also played a role, as well as the El Niño/La Niña cycle and natural oscillations in stratospheric winds. Not every year that we see extremely high levels of Arctic sea ice loss will have a strongly negative NAO winter. For example, the record Arctic sea ice loss year of 2007 saw only a modest perturbation to the Arctic Vortex and the NAO during the winter of 2007 – 2008.

However, the strongly negative NAO is back again this winter. High pressure has replaced low pressure over the North Pole, and according to NOAA, the NAO index during November 2010 was the second lowest since 1950. This strongly negative NAO has continued into December, and we are on course to have a top-five most extreme December NAO. Cold air is once again spilling southwards into the Eastern U.S. And Europe, bringing record cold and fierce snowstorms. At the same time, warm air is flowing into the Arctic to replace the cold air spilling south--temperatures averaged more than 10°C (18°F) above average over much of Greenland so far this month. The latest 2-week forecast from the GFS model predicts that the Hot Arctic-Cold Continents pattern will continue for the next two weeks. However, the coldest air has sloshed over into Europe and Asia, and North America will see relatively seasonable temperatures the next two weeks.

Quoting tornadodude:I asked Jesse Ferrell of accuweather about why the forecast offices differ so much with their snowfall predictions.

"Matt Phelps December 15 at 1:45pm

alright, I have a winter storm warning where I live. they say 5-8 inches of snow, NWS. I just dont see it happening. Other counties close to me, but in different forecast zones dont have nearly as much snow forecast. what gives?

thanks

Matt

Jesse Ferrell December 15 at 2:24pm

Thanks for pointing that out. If you look at the Indiana snow map for tonight, local NWS offices seem to be in "heated disagreement." Here's the AccuWeather map: http://ow.ly/3pMHb

Quoting tornadodude:I asked Jesse Ferrell of accuweather about why the forecast offices differ so much with their snowfall predictions.

"Matt Phelps December 15 at 1:45pm

alright, I have a winter storm warning where I live. they say 5-8 inches of snow, NWS. I just dont see it happening. Other counties close to me, but in different forecast zones dont have nearly as much snow forecast. what gives?

thanks

Matt

Jesse Ferrell December 15 at 2:24pm

Thanks for pointing that out. If you look at the Indiana snow map for tonight, local NWS offices seem to be in "heated disagreement." Here's the AccuWeather map: http://ow.ly/3pMHb

I asked Jesse Ferrell of accuweather about why the forecast offices differ so much with their snowfall predictions.

"Matt Phelps December 15 at 1:45pm

alright, I have a winter storm warning where I live. they say 5-8 inches of snow, NWS. I just dont see it happening. Other counties close to me, but in different forecast zones dont have nearly as much snow forecast. what gives?

thanks

Matt

Jesse Ferrell December 15 at 2:24pm

Thanks for pointing that out. If you look at the Indiana snow map for tonight, local NWS offices seem to be in "heated disagreement." Here's the AccuWeather map: http://ow.ly/3pMHb

Sorry; guess I misunderstood. See, I originally just posted a link to a story that's been reported on by many media outlets, and was inundated by folks not commenting on the story itself but rather on the single outlet I'd selected, which was just one of those many. (Maybe it was that out-of-right-field "Hungarian communist" remark that led me to see more vitriol than perhaps there really is.)

Quoting RipplinH2O:You also use the phrase "the fact of the matter is this: there is a deliberate, ongoing, and very well-funded campaign against science in this country." How is that a fact? It's your opinion.

Oh, not just an opinion, and not just mine; there have been whole shelves of books and magazine articles written about the whole anti-science movement. Does anyone think it's just an accident that Americans are falling further and further behind the rest of the industrialized world in science and math, while at the same time some institutionally downplay, say, the theory of evolution or the dangers of cigarette smoking or the true age of the earth...or global warming, even though there exist mountains of data behind each? (I've previously posted many links to some of that data; please write me if you want to know where to look.)

Quoting RipplinH2O:"Entities with much to gain by maintaining the fossil fuel paradigm are pulling out all the stops to try to create confusion and controversy where none exists." Entities? It's just FOX News.

And Big Energy. And Big Tobacco. And many conservative politicians. And so on, and so forth...

Quoting RipplinH2O:We get it, you're on a crusade.

Yes, I am. And news like today's is yet further proof that I--and many others--need to keep it going.

Almost every article there is a bash against one network (FOX). Strange that they're concerned about CONSERVATIVE misinformation, but don't see anything wrong with the massive amount of LIBERAL bias in the news (NBC, CBS, ABC, MSNBC, etc).

Shouldn't ALL Media Matter?

Yeah, the Liberal media bias continues to cover the Teabaggers and Sarah Palin ad nauseum. There is such a liberal media bias. Puh-leez. Go feed that crap to someone more gullible.

The reason Media Matters was founded and continues to exist is because the right seems to be the main source of misinformation these days. I'm sure I'll get the plethora of nasty replies but I really don't care. It is what it is. If there wasn't misinformation in the conservative media (Faux News), you wouldn't have people believing that:

1. Saddam Hussein had something to do with 911. He had NOTHING to do with 911.2. Obama is a socialist. RIGHT! If people bothered to pay attention instead of listening to Faux News brain entrainment, they'd see he is a centrist corporate Democrat ala Bill Clinton. 3. Health care reform is a government takeover of health care. This is so laughable. How come the PRIVATE sector insurance companies are going to get potentially 50 million new customers instead of the government? Medicare for all would be a government takeover of healthcare. Somehow there isn't a call to eliminate our current government run health care programs such as Medicare, Medicaid and the VA. Why is that? Seems rather hypocritical to me.4. Global Warming is a myth. I think we've covered that here in great detail. Nuff said.5. Giving tax cuts to wealthy people creates jobs. This may be the cruelest joke played on the American people. We all know trickle down economics never has worked and never will. The record deficits wracked up under REPUBLICAN administrations prove this point perfectly. 6. Republicans care about the deficit.See #5. Can you name the last Republican administration that balanced the budget?Exactly. Talk about the freakin' pot and the kettle.

Need I go on?

Again, no one is there to call conservative media on its bulls**t, which is why it's refreshing to see some entity at least giving it a try. Why does it add to the pile if it's just trying to get to the truth? I think the goal is to reduce the pile and it does that if it sets the record straight.

Quoting RipplinH2O:Sure, I'll comment. Who used the word "hate" besides you? You also use the phrase "the fact of the matter is this: there is a deliberate, ongoing, and very well-funded campaign against science in this country." How is that a fact? It's your opinion. "Entities with much to gain by maintaining the fossil fuel paradigm are pulling out all the stops to try to create confusion and controversy where none exists." Entities? It's just FOX News. "Today's news is yet more evidence of that, and complaining about Media Matters doesn't change a thing." Nobody complained about Media Matters, we just pointed out their publicly professed bias. We get it, you're on a crusade. Keep the posts coming, I read everything you post. No sense getting angry when you get called on a part of it...

you haven't even touched on the story one tiny shred. keep on keeping on with your blinders, and disingenuous attempts to hide your slant rants behind a thin veil of finger pointing towards those who lack cordiality.

Quoting RipplinH2O:Nea, open your link and click on the "about us" link in the upper right. It says "Media Matters for America is a Web-based, not-for-profit, 501(c)(3) progressive research and information center dedicated to comprehensively monitoring, analyzing, and correcting conservative misinformation in the U.S. media." You obviously think FOX is biased but countering perceived bias with bias? Really?...

Here, I agree.

Almost every article there is a bash against one network (FOX). Strange that they're concerned about CONSERVATIVE misinformation, but don't see anything wrong with the massive amount of LIBERAL bias in the news (NBC, CBS, ABC, MSNBC, etc).

Tonight: Occasional freezing rain and sleet, possibly mixed with snow, becoming all freezing rain after midnight. Temperature rising to around 32 by 3am. East wind between 3 and 6 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New ice accumulation of 0.1 to 0.3 of an inch possible. New snow and sleet accumulation of less than a half inch possible.

two counties to my west: (also different forecast area)

Tonight: Freezing rain and sleet likely. Cloudy, with a low around 27. East wind between 5 and 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New ice accumulation of around a 0.1 of an inch possible. New sleet accumulation of less than one inch possible.

one county to my southeast: (different forecast area)

Tonight: Periods of snow and sleet before midnight, then periods of freezing rain and sleet. Low around 28. East wind between 6 and 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New ice accumulation of 0.1 to 0.3 of an inch possible. New snow and sleet accumulation of less than a half inch possible.

my area:

Tonight: Snow, possibly mixed with freezing rain and sleet, mainly after 7pm. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 25. East southeast wind between 7 and 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. Little or no ice accumulation expected. New snow and sleet accumulation of 4 to 8 inches possible.

Tonight: Occasional freezing rain and sleet, possibly mixed with snow, becoming all freezing rain after midnight. Temperature rising to around 32 by 3am. East wind between 3 and 6 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New ice accumulation of 0.1 to 0.3 of an inch possible. New snow and sleet accumulation of less than a half inch possible.

two counties to my west: (also different forecast area)

Tonight: Freezing rain and sleet likely. Cloudy, with a low around 27. East wind between 5 and 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New ice accumulation of around a 0.1 of an inch possible. New sleet accumulation of less than one inch possible.

one county to my southeast: (different forecast area)

Tonight: Periods of snow and sleet before midnight, then periods of freezing rain and sleet. Low around 28. East wind between 6 and 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New ice accumulation of 0.1 to 0.3 of an inch possible. New snow and sleet accumulation of less than a half inch possible.

my area:

Tonight: Snow, possibly mixed with freezing rain and sleet, mainly after 7pm. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 25. East southeast wind between 7 and 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. Little or no ice accumulation expected. New snow and sleet accumulation of 4 to 8 inches possible.

I hope it actually happens, I dont see what they are seeing. but of course they are the professionals. 2 counties to my west in Illinois only forecast an inch. One county to my south, 1 inch or less. so idk

Yeah, I think I'll be lucky to get an inch. We got 2, maybe 3 inches last weekend, a far cry from early projections.

I hope it actually happens, I dont see what they are seeing. but of course they are the professionals. 2 counties to my west in Illinois only forecast an inch. One county to my south, 1 inch or less. so idk

.LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS EVENINGINTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ON THURSDAY MORNING. MOISTURE WILL BEPULLED NORTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THIS EVENING. WHILE SURFACETEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW FREEZING...WARMER AIR ALOFT WILLOVERSPREAD SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA LATE TONIGHT ANDWILL CAUSE A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION. FURTHER NORTH ACROSSTHE REMAINDER OF THE REGION...PRECIPITATION WILL FALL MAINLY ASSNOW.

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN INDIANAPOLIS HAS ISSUED A WINTERSTORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THISEVENING TO 1 PM EST THURSDAY. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NOLONGER IN EFFECT.

* MAIN IMPACT: ROADS MAY BECOME COVERED WITH SNOW TONIGHT. VISIBILITIES MAY BE REDUCED AND TRAVEL MAY BECOME DIFFICULT. THE THURSDAY MORNING RUSH HOUR WILL BE IMPACTED.

* ACCUMULATIONS: FIVE TO EIGHT INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED BY THURSDAY MORNING. SNOW MAY BRIEFLY MIX WITH SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN.

* TIMING: SNOW WILL START LATE THIS EVENING...THEN BECOME HEAVY OVERNIGHT. SNOW WILL END THURSDAY MORNING.

Sure, I'll comment. Who used the word "hate" besides you? You also use the phrase "the fact of the matter is this: there is a deliberate, ongoing, and very well-funded campaign against science in this country." How is that a fact? It's your opinion. "Entities with much to gain by maintaining the fossil fuel paradigm are pulling out all the stops to try to create confusion and controversy where none exists." Entities? It's just FOX News. "Today's news is yet more evidence of that, and complaining about Media Matters doesn't change a thing." Nobody complained about Media Matters, we just pointed out their publicly professed bias. We get it, you're on a crusade. Keep the posts coming, I read everything you post. No sense getting angry when you get called on a part of it...

As usual this guy manages to blame global "warming", oops climate change on the storms this winter. When does it end. Honestly, it was bad enough to leave out data that didn't help alarmist's "causes", now I have to endure this.

The fact of the matter is this: there is a deliberate, ongoing, and very well-funded campaign against science in this country. Entities with much to gain by maintaining the fossil fuel paradigm are pulling out all the stops to try to create confusion and controversy where none exists. Today's news is yet more evidence of that, and complaining about Media Matters doesn't change a thing.

Admittedly, we're making steady progress towards a tiny government by underfunding it and having a large deficit to push everyone into the corner. We also are closer to a world government if you keep in mind our influence at the UN and increasing support among leadership for a quasi world governing authority. All sorts of pretexts for it. I'd say we're partway to achieving everyone's goals on both sides.

Now, what about the people in the middle? They need exposure in the world and support or we'll end up with a nation having endless war, a tiny government, socialism, and a world government. In other words, we'd be a militant socialist regime with too few people in power and a populace at odds with itself because everyone, including those on the right and left, had to have their way.

And guess what, the republi***** and demo***** are 74% of the population.

Quoting RipplinH2O:Any group that challenges ONLY media on the right, as professed publicly in their mission statement, is NOT doing so in an honest way. Bias does not counter bias, it only adds to the pile...

Boy, has that started to smell worse, as of late.

If it doesn't fit through the rose colored glasses, of either flavor, it must be fraudulent.

.LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS EVENINGINTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ON THURSDAY MORNING. MOISTURE WILL BEPULLED NORTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THIS EVENING. WHILE SURFACETEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW FREEZING...WARMER AIR ALOFT WILLOVERSPREAD SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA LATE TONIGHT ANDWILL CAUSE A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION. FURTHER NORTH ACROSSTHE REMAINDER OF THE REGION...PRECIPITATION WILL FALL MAINLY ASSNOW.

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN INDIANAPOLIS HAS ISSUED A WINTERSTORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THISEVENING TO 1 PM EST THURSDAY. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NOLONGER IN EFFECT.

* MAIN IMPACT: ROADS MAY BECOME COVERED WITH SNOW TONIGHT. VISIBILITIES MAY BE REDUCED AND TRAVEL MAY BECOME DIFFICULT. THE THURSDAY MORNING RUSH HOUR WILL BE IMPACTED.

* ACCUMULATIONS: FIVE TO EIGHT INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED BY THURSDAY MORNING. SNOW MAY BRIEFLY MIX WITH SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN.

* TIMING: SNOW WILL START LATE THIS EVENING...THEN BECOME HEAVY OVERNIGHT. SNOW WILL END THURSDAY MORNING.

Quoting RipplinH2O:You miss my point: Media Matters isn't watchdogging "journalist(s) doing sketchy things", they watch the conservative press. Now, had they left out the word "conservative" in their mission statement and stated "Media Matters for America is a Web-based, not-for-profit, 501(c)(3) progressive research and information center dedicated to comprehensively monitoring, analyzing, and correcting misinformation in the U.S. media.", now that would be worth reading.

It seems you miss my point, so I'll repeat it: it's not the messenger, but the message.

Any group that challenges any media--right, left, or middle--in an effort to keep them honest, and that does so in an honest way, is perfectly alright by me.

Quoting RipplinH2O:You miss my point: Media Matters isn't watchdogging "journalist(s) doing sketchy things", they watch the conservative press. Now, had they left out the word "conservative" in their mission statement and stated "Media Matters for America is a Web-based, not-for-profit, 501(c)(3) progressive research and information center dedicated to comprehensively monitoring, analyzing, and correcting misinformation in the U.S. media.", now that would be worth reading.

You miss my point: Media Matters isn't watchdogging "journalist(s) doing sketchy things", they watch the conservative press. Now, had they left out the word "conservative" in their mission statement and stated "Media Matters for America is a Web-based, not-for-profit, 501(c)(3) progressive research and information center dedicated to comprehensively monitoring, analyzing, and correcting misinformation in the U.S. media.", now that would be worth reading.