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When will Jeter get to 3000?

A SABR colleague came up with this estimate of when Jeter may get to 3000 career hits:

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A friend asked me what Yankee tickets he should get for the best chance of seeing Derek Jeter's 3,000th hit. Jeter needs 74 hits.

I looked over Jeter's last six seasons. He got his 74th hit in team games: 65, 61, 56, 73, 61, and 57; respectively. His 74th hit came earliest in 2007, game 56, June 1st, when he was batting .328 and missed only one game. His 74th hit came latest in 2008 when he was batting .276 and missed 6 early season games.

If Jeter misses three games (he's missed 18 early season games in the last six years), and if Jeter bats .304 (his average for the last six years to his 74th hit), he'll likely get his 74th hit in game 62. Variable batting average and games missed create a bell curve of probability that tapers from game 56 to game 69.

Re: When will Jeter get to 3000?

Originally Posted by delv

i meant the players, not the organization. as in... going on the top step and applauding, etc.

I'd think so, as long as it wasn't a game winning hit or anything. I think the rivalry is more intense among the fans than the players - Jeter's certainly been around a lot of those players (e.g., Pedroia at the WBC)

"Welcome to NYYFans, the place where Yankees fans come together to complain about the manner in which our team is winning games" -- Mr. Coffee

Re: When will Jeter get to 3000?

I, and I assume everybody else, would love to see 3000 to be a big hit against Boston, but game 66 against Cleveland sings out to me. June 13 it is, although there's no guarantee that the miserable winter of 2010-11 won't postpone things. Game 66 could come 3-4 days later. It was at Wrigley Field that Jeter was named Captain in 2003. Will the drunken bleacher yuppies and cell-phonies of the North Side witness 3000? Could happen.

Re: When will Jeter get to 3000?

Originally Posted by Kentucky Bomber

I, and I assume everybody else, would love to see 3000 to be a big hit against Boston, but game 66 against Cleveland sings out to me. June 13 it is, although there's no guarantee that the miserable winter of 2010-11 won't postpone things. Game 66 could come 3-4 days later. It was at Wrigley Field that Jeter was named Captain in 2003. Will the drunken bleacher yuppies and cell-phonies of the North Side witness 3000? Could happen.

Re: When will Jeter get to 3000?

personally Im hoping for the Cincy Series, since Ill be roadtripping it to Cincy and would love to witness history during that series. But it would be a nice present for DJ to get it on his Bday/OTD vs COL too