“It restores my confidence in the government, that we’re actually doing what we’re supposed to be doing.”

The number of people caught illegally crossing the Southwest border fell to a 17-year low in March, according to testimony the secretary of Homeland Security is expected to give in Congress on Wednesday.

An advance copy of Secretary John Kelly’s testimony, obtained by the Associated Press, pegged the March number of apprehensions at fewer than 12,500. That’s down from 18,762 in February and down from 33,316 in March 2016, according to Border Patrol data.

It’s also well below the peak this century — 220,063 in March 2000.

Kelly will tell the Senate, according to the AP, that the dip this year is “no accident” and that President Donald Trump’s immigration crackdown is the reason for the decline.

Christopher Harris, secretary of San Diego’s local chapter of the Border Patrol union, said that the anticipated testimony seems accurate based on what he’s seen happening in San Diego. Word has spread back to people who were thinking of crossing that immigration officials enforce the laws more rigorously now, Harris said.

“People are thinking twice before coming,” Harris said by phone. “We truly believe that it has to do with this administration, its rhetoric and its actions.”

He said he recently gave a tour to Congressional staffers and brought them to his station to show them around.

“That was the first time I can recall in almost 20 years that we had nobody in the (holding) cells,” Harris said.

One of the concrete changes that he’s seen is that officers are now encouraged to document things that they observe that might disprove an asylum seeker’s claim. The previous administration discouraged such documentation, Harris said.

While Trump has signed several immigration-related executive orders, much of what is expected at the Southwest border has yet to be implemented. His wall is still in early design stages. His thousands of new agents are still in the hiring process.

On the interior of the country, immigration courts have adjusted priorities, anticipating larger numbers of arrivals, and some immigration judges have moved their operations to detention facilities to speed up processing.

Immigration attorneys have seen increases in calls from newly detained clients or their families, pointing to higher levels of enforcement on those who are not authorized to be in the country.

The biggest change that they see, though, is fear within immigrant communities, where rumors circulate of raids and checkpoints that may not actually exist.

Everard Meade, director of the Trans Border Institute at the University of San Diego, said few of the new administration’s operational changes have taken effect, and the decrease in border apprehensions is actually part of a larger trend of reduced migration from Mexico spanning more than 15 years.

“We’re at the end of a massive migration cycle,” Meade said in an email.

The specific policies of Trump — and predecessors Barack Obama and George W. Bush — have had a negligible impact, Meade said, compared with macroeconomic factors like the Great Recession and job cuts in areas like construction that tend to attract immigrant workers. A stronger Mexican economy has also contributed to fewer migrants, he said.

“People are going to Tijuana to be in Tijuana, not on their way to the U.S. or returning from the U.S., something that wasn’t true for most of the last century,” Meade said.

Apart from economic conditions, Meade said, smuggling has gone from family-run operations to drug cartels, another factor in decreased attempts to cross the border without permission.

“Opportunity seekers are not going to take this risk,” Meade said. “Only people who are in very desperate straits are going to consider making this kind of journey.”

Christian Ramirez, human rights director for Alliance San Diego, was also skeptical of Kelly’s statement. He called Kelly’s claim “an exaggeration at best,” and he questioned the data’s accuracy based on his previous experiences with the department.

“It’s unfair to categorize this as a success,” Ramirez said by phone. “You can’t govern through fear mongering. You can’t govern through policies that have been questioned by the judicial branch time and time again.”

He said actual policy hasn’t changed from the Obama administration, as a number of Trump executive orders have yet to be implemented with additional resources such as new officers.

Initially, Trump’s rhetoric caused fear among immigrant communities in the U.S. and even among those planning to cross the border for a quick shopping trip, Ramirez said, but he thinks things are returning to normal.

He said he has been concerned by the chaos and lack of clarity on what policies are currently in place for the administration.

“I really hope Congress does its job, that they ask tough questions,” he said.

Ramirez lamented that agency heads for several branches of the Homeland Security department have not yet been confirmed under the new administration, adding to what he saw as chaos.

Peter Nunez, a former U.S. attorney for the Southern District of California who has supported Trump for his immigration policies, said he sees the decrease in apprehensions as proof of the effectiveness of Trump’s immigration policies.

“It restores my confidence in the government, that we’re actually doing what we’re supposed to be doing,” Nunez said by phone. He said both Republican and Democrat presidents in the past have disappointed him on the issue of immigration enforcement.

Nunez said Trump’s rhetoric has deterred people from coming, and that ramped-up enforcement on the interior of the country has contributed to the decreasing numbers as well.

“We haven’t built a mile of fence, and we probably haven’t hired another Border Patrol agent,” Nunez said, “but the fact that he’s said he’s going to do it is sending a message.”

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Democratic lawmakers and some Republicans in favor of a deal to protect 'Dreamers' want to drive a wedge between Trump and hardliners on his staff. (Oct. 9, 2017) (Sign up for our free video newsletter here http://bit.ly/2n6VKPR)

Democratic lawmakers and some Republicans in favor of a deal to protect 'Dreamers' want to drive a wedge between Trump and hardliners on his staff. (Oct. 9, 2017) (Sign up for our free video newsletter here http://bit.ly/2n6VKPR)

CAPTION

Democratic lawmakers and some Republicans in favor of a deal to protect 'Dreamers' want to drive a wedge between Trump and hardliners on his staff. (Oct. 9, 2017) (Sign up for our free video newsletter here http://bit.ly/2n6VKPR)

Democratic lawmakers and some Republicans in favor of a deal to protect 'Dreamers' want to drive a wedge between Trump and hardliners on his staff. (Oct. 9, 2017) (Sign up for our free video newsletter here http://bit.ly/2n6VKPR)

CAPTION

Los Angeles Unified School District has published immigration guides in English and Spanish directing families to low-cost legal resources and attorneys around L.A. (Sept. 5, 2017) (Sign up for our free video newsletter here http://bit.ly/2n6VKPR)

Los Angeles Unified School District has published immigration guides in English and Spanish directing families to low-cost legal resources and attorneys around L.A. (Sept. 5, 2017) (Sign up for our free video newsletter here http://bit.ly/2n6VKPR)

CAPTION

On Sept. 5, the White House announced it was moving to end the Obama-era program that has protected people from deportation. (Sept. 5, 2017) (Sign up for our free video newsletter here http://bit.ly/2n6VKPR)

On Sept. 5, the White House announced it was moving to end the Obama-era program that has protected people from deportation. (Sept. 5, 2017) (Sign up for our free video newsletter here http://bit.ly/2n6VKPR)

CAPTION

Prototypes for President Donald Trump’s border wall may be completed by Halloween.

Prototypes for President Donald Trump’s border wall may be completed by Halloween.

CAPTION

Sergii Pyvovarenko fled after he was kidnapped and tortured by the Right Sector, a far-right nationalist group.

Sergii Pyvovarenko fled after he was kidnapped and tortured by the Right Sector, a far-right nationalist group.