Too dry now?

It was just a week ago that we were noting concerns that corn and soybean crops were deteriorating in some parts of the Corn Belt due to overly wet conditions, and yet now one can sense that the corn and soybean trade is getting more interested in areas that have been rather dry as of late.

The last two weeks in particular have not been very wet for eastern Iowa, southern Wisconsin, the northern third of Illinois, northeastern Indiana, and northern Ohio with two-week rainfall totals for a lot of that area under a half inch. There are rain chances at various times through Friday in that area, but overall it would be that same area that I think sees the lightest rains and the worst rainfall coverage for the rest of this week in the Midwest. At least temperatures there will not be hot, and in fact will probably average a bit below normal for the rest of this week.

Heat will be seen again for the end of next weekend and the beginning of next week with 90s in the Midwest common, but it should be a short-lived affair with temperatures moderating by the middle of next week and beyond. With that temperature moderation will come more chances for rain, though again it might be that drier area of the eastern Corn Belt that gets some of the lighter totals.

I do not think that this dryness is impacting corn and soybean yields just yet, but certainly will be something to keep an eye on. Where soil moisture is better in the rest of the Midwest, I see the weather coming up as rather favorable with regular rainfall, temperatures mostly mild, and any extreme heat that is seen early next week lasting just for a couple days.

The worst heat and dryness will remain in the southern Plains, where historic drought shows no sign of abating for Texas and nearby areas.

Michael Barone 07/05/2011 @ 10:55am
It's getting very dry in parts of extreme Southeast Michigan, Northeast Indiana, and Northern Ohio. The crops are still holding their own but rain is scarce in the 10 day forcast. I am at 3 weeks without rain currently.

Karl Hess Hess 07/05/2011 @ 9:09am
Way too much like 1983 in my book here in Lancaster County, Pennsylvania. The only year I ever collected on crop insurance in my 37 year farming career. 1983 was a wet spring, delayed planting, things looked good in June, and last rain before Labor Day was on July 4th. We had a shower on July 3rd, and nothing in our forecast for at least 15 days. Corn just ready to push tassel, thankfully minimial drought stress yet, and temps only forecast to reach low 90's.