Several of the reliable computer models are starting to hint at some unpleasant news to come, when it relates to tropical trouble for the U.S. coastline.

We have been intently watching these Cape Verde storms (storms that emerge from Africa) over the past few weeks, and aside from Karl and Hermine, there haven’t been signficant threats to the Gulf of Mexico or the Southeast.

Of course, Florida has been sitting pretty in the middle in-between the western Gulf storms and the Atlantic hurricanes.

However, the long-range forecasts are now trending toward a zone of higher tropical activity closer to the Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico and possibly the Southeast U.S.

Storms will become fewer and fewer in number coming off of Africa late this month and into October.

Meanwhile, temperatures will be cooling and overall air pressures will be rising across northern North America as the first hints of Fall affect Canada and the northern U.S.

Models are conversely depicting the overall lowering of air pressures across the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico as we go through time.

This will likely promote the development of tropical cyclones in the Caribbean or Gulf and the potential for them to make it farther north and threaten the U.S. coast.

The GFS model has been adamant on the development of a tropical cyclone in the eastern Caribbean about one week from now that could be the start of this trend. Emphasis, please, on the word “could.”

We’ll watch it, but for the next week-plus, Southwest Florida has no tropical threat.

The eye of Hurricane Karl has hit Mexico’s Gulf Coast near the city of Veracruz with winds of 115 mph (185 kph).

The National Hurricane Center says the storm’s center hit about 10 miles (15 kilometers) northwest of Veracruz.

Meanwhile, while hurricanes Igor and Julia are forecast to stay far to the east of the U.S., Igor is expected to churn up high surf and rip currents off the Central Florida coast.

If you’re heading to the beach to take in the fun, be very careful to only enter the waters being monitored by lifeguards. Offshore, seas will be building and eventually run in the 10 to 13 ft range by Sunday.

Hurricane Igor: Latest advisory

Igor is expected to remain a dangerous, major hurricane for a couple more days.

Watches and warnings

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for Bermuda.

Discussion and 48-hour outlook

At 2 p.m. EDT, the eye of Hurricane Igor was located near latitude 23.4 north, longitude 60.7 west.

Igor is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph. This general motion, with an increase in forward speed, is expected over the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of the hurricane will be approaching Bermuda on Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 120 mph, with higher gusts. Igor is a Category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane wind scale. Some fluctuations in strength are possible during the next couple of days, but Igor is expected to remain a powerful Hurricane.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 946 mb, or 27.93 inches.

Hazards affecting lan

Wind: Tropical storm conditions are possible in Bermuda by late Saturday, with hurricane conditions possible on Sunday.

Surf: Large swells will continue to affect the Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, Hispaniola and portions of the Bahamas during the next couple of days. These swells will also cause dangerous surf conditions in Bermuda during the next several days, which will worsen as Igor approaches.

Swells will continue to affect the East Coast of the United States through the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. Please consult products from your local weather office for additional information.

Most of us who live in wind or hurricane prone parts of the country know that there are 5 categories for the strength of a hurricane. What a lot of us don’t know is what the wind speeds for each category is. Below you’ll find the wind speeds associated with each category as well as a brief description of conditions that occur in each category. This is known as the Saffir-Simpson Scale and assigns the 5 categories based on both wind speed and damage potential.