Little change to 94L; exceptional heat in Texas, record rains in California

There is not much change to report on the large, wet, and disorganized tropical disturbance (Invest 94L) in the Western Caribbean, between Jamaica and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula. The disturbance has brought intermittent heavy rains to Jamaica over the past two days, but nearby islands have thus far escaped the deluge. Satellite-estimated rainfall amounts of 1" per hour occurred in ocean regions just east of Jamaica this morning, but the heaviest rains have missed the island so far this morning. Visible satellite loops show no increase in organization of 94L in recent hours, and the storm's low-level spiral bands and upper-level outflow are poorly defined. The storm's center of low pressure is located about 130 miles south of Grand Cayman Island, in a region with no heavy thunderstorm activity. An intense clump of thunderstorms exists on either side of this low, near Jamaica, and just east of Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula. Water vapor satellite loops show the Caribbean has moistened over the past two days, and upper air balloon soundings from the Cayman Islands continue to show much moister air at mid levels of the atmosphere (2% humidity at 500 mb on Saturday, compared to 69% last night.) Wind shear remains in the moderate range, 15 - 20 knots, and is predicted by the SHIPS model to remain below 20 knots through tonight. Water temperatures in the Central Caribbean are about 1°C above average, 28 - 28.5°C, which is 2°C above the threshold needed to support development of a tropical storm.

Figure 1. Rainfall rates of up to 1" per hour (orange colors) were estimated by the F-17 satellite for 94L at 7:03am EDT Jun 6, 2011. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.

Since 94L is so large and poorly organized, today's mission by the Hurricane Hunters has been cancelled. A new mission is scheduled for Tuesday afternoon at 2pm EDT. This morning's 00Z and 06Z model runs were unimpressed with 94L, with most of them showing little or no development. A band of very high wind shear of 30 - 50 knots lies over Cuba and the southern Bahama Islands. The GFS and ECMWF models show 94L pushing slowly northwest at about 5 mph, hitting this shear on Tuesday and Wednesday, preventing any further development. The NOGAPS model predicts that a gap may open up in the shear sufficient for the storm to organize into a tropical depression late this week. Given 94L's current disorganization, I doubt the storm will ever develop. NHC gave 94L a 40% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday, and I believe these odds should be lower, near 20%. Regardless of development, 94L is capable of bringing very heavy rains to Jamaica, Cuba, the Cayman Islands, and Haiti through Wednesday. These rains will probably spread northwards into South Florida and the Bahama Islands by Thursday or Friday.

Figure 2. Morning satellite image of 94L.

Exceptional heat in the SouthA sizzling June heat wave set record high temperatures across much of Texas, Louisiana, Alabama, Mississippi, and the Florida Panhandle on Sunday. The high temperature at the Houston, Texas airport hit 105 degrees, the warmest temperature ever recorded in the month of June (old record: 104 degrees on June 24th and June 26th, 2009.) The earliest Houston ever recorded a temperature of 105 degrees prior to Sunday was July 26th, 1954. Records for Houston date back to 1891. There have been only 15 days in which the temperature has reached or exceeded 105 degrees in Houston:

4 - 19091 - 19542 - 19623 - 19805 - 2000

So far this month, new maximum temperature records in Houston have been established on four out of the first five days. Galveston and Houston both crushed their previous record high temperature for the day (June 5th) by a remarkable seven degrees. Residents can expect another day of triple-digit heat today, thanks to the upper level ridge of high pressure parked over the state. Houston will likely break the old record of 98°F for the date.

Figure 3. An intense low pressure system moves inland over California as seen in this satellite photo taken June 4, 2011, at 2pm PDT. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.

Record rains in CaliforniaA large and unusually intense low pressure system moved inland over California over the weekend, bringing large areas of the state rains unheard of in June. According to our weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, rainfall at Mining Ridge on the Big Sur coast totaled 8.31" Sunday, which, if verified, would be California's heaviest 1-day June rainstorm on record. According to the document "Historic Rainstorms in California" Dept. of Water Resources, Aug. 1997, the previous maximum June daily rainfall was 5.83" at Forni Ridge on June 18, 1982. San Francisco had its 2nd greatest June 1-day rainfall, going back to 1850, and both the San Francisco and Oakland airport have now had their rainiest Junes on record. Rainfall at Santa Barbara Airport yesterday totaled 1.24 inches, the wettest June day there on record (previous record: 0.51" on June 5, 2009.) The 1.38"of rain so far this June has made it the wettest June in recorded history at Santa Barbara Airport, going back to 1941.

Normally June should be warm and dry. Many areas have had more rainfall in one day than they usually get in the entire month of June. All due to this system: http://www.wunderground.com/data/images/GOES_CA_STORM.jpg

Quoting pottery:Every time we have a close pass to our north we get feeder bands and occasional strong winds from the west and south.I have NEVER heard our Disaster Preparedness people (or the Met office) advise people that winds will be westerly, and that sea conditions in the Gulf of Paria will be bad .It is assumed that the storm approaches from the east, so the winds will be easterly.It is pathetic frankly, because the people who lose boats and get hurt on the west and south coast always say "Wow that was so strange..."

It requires contrarian thinking but public service education on this would save a lot of people heartache

The Anshas nuclear reactor, located on the outskirts of Cairo, has leaked ten cubic meters of radioactive water for the second time in a year, according to Samer Mekheimar, the former director of the Nuclear Research Center’s atomic reactions department. Mekheimar submitted a note to the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces, saying the leakage took place on 25 May as a result of operating the reactor without taking into account safety precautions. He also said the Atomic Energy Agency kept the incident secret and threatened to fire the staff if they talked about it. “The fact that the reactor was by mere chance not operated the next day saved the area from environmental disaster,” he wrote. “All ministries were changed after the revolution, except the Ministry of Electricity and Energy,” he added. “It still kept the same minister and his deputies from the dissolved ruling party.” Meanwhile, sources at the Nuclear Safety Authority said they were denied entry to the reactor to conduct an inspection. Director of the Atomic Energy Agency, Mohamed al-Kolaly, said that levels of radiation inside the reactor are normal, and that the International Atomic Energy Agency has praised the reactor.

Think counterclockwise winds which is what you get from a tropical low.The buoy below us has West winds and the winds here are from the NE. That means the low is situated generally between Grand Cayman and the buoy 42057 immediatley to our South. Winds from the East of the low on the North and from the West on the South

Every time we have a close pass to our north we get feeder bands and occasional strong winds from the west and south.I have NEVER heard our Disaster Preparedness people (or the Met office) advise people that winds will be westerly, and that sea conditions in the Gulf of Paria will be bad .It is assumed that the storm approaches from the east, so the winds will be easterly.It is pathetic frankly, because the people who lose boats and get hurt on the west and south coast always say "Wow that was so strange..."

Think counterclockwise winds which is what you get from a tropical low.The buoy below us has West winds and the winds here are from the NE. That means the low is situated generally between Grand Cayman and the buoy 42057 immediatley to our South. Winds from the East of the low on the North and from the West on the South

Thanks. At least if it does organize there won't be much time for it to get strong enough to cause any damage here since it is pretty close to us.

Quoting stormwatcherCI:Ok thanks. Buoy is showing west winds and pressure 1006 mb. One of these days this stuff might sink in :)

Think counterclockwise winds which is what you get from a tropical low.The buoy below us has West winds and the winds here are from the NE. That means the low is situated generally between Grand Cayman and the buoy 42057 immediatley to our South. Winds from the East of the low on the North and from the West on the South

Quoting emcf30:Thats wild. I wounder what that storm would have racked up in todays dollars. Have to look it up.

Excerpt"

The costs of such storms could be huge. Pielke, who has made a career of studying how well society responds to hurricanes, says that if the great Miami hurricane of 1926 were to happen today, it would cost $110 billion in modern dollars. (The practice of giving hurricanes human names didn't begin until 1953.) Such costs are not merely determined by the storm's power, but also by where exactly they hit.

No, to the North of it. If the low was to the East the winds at the buoy would be from the NW or N. West winds come around from the Southern side of the low, thus the low must be to the North of the reporting station.

Ok thanks. Buoy is showing west winds and pressure 1006 mb. One of these days this stuff might sink in :)

No, but my mother and her family were in that one. My grandfather was working for the Young family in Hollywood back then. Hollywood was a new city just being built. I have pictures of some of it. They always talked about it. They had to move to Tampa (Ybor City) after that, because the destruction was terrible. They had just moved to Florida in 1923.

I thought that the Galveston hurricane of 1900 was the worst early hurricane? I remember reading a book about it long time ago ...think it was Jacob's storm?

Hugo was very exciting storm power out for weeks i like it because it changes the whole dynamics of life ... But of course its something you dont wish upon anyone its just nature and were right on the alley.

In Earl's pathetic (lol) aftermath, we had to clean up a sea of leaves that surrounded the house. The power was out for 36 hours. Not nearly as bad as Hugo. Or Georges.

Quoting stormwatcherCI:kman, if a buoy is showing west winds wouldn't that signify that the coc or llc is to the east of the buoy ?

No, to the North of it. If the low was to the East the winds at the buoy would be from the NW or N. West winds come around from the Southern side of the low, thus the low must be to the North of the reporting station.

No, but my mother and her family were in that one. My grandfather was working for the Young family in Hollywood back then. Hollywood was a new city just being built. I have pictures of some of it. They always talked about it. They had to move to Tampa (Ybor City) after that, because the destruction was terrible. They had just moved to Florida in 1923.

Thats wild. I wounder what that storm would have racked up in todays dollars. Have to look it up.