brisbanetimes.com.au senior reporter

Touring Brisbane's Airport Link tunnel

Thousands of tunnel walkers on Sunday took to the city's new $4.8 billion Airport Link. Photo: Harrison Saragossi

Traffic in the Airport Link tunnel will quickly rise to 120,000 vehicles per day by October 2012, but will slide to half that number in just over a year, a prominent Brisbane traffic modelling firm has predicted.

Toowong-based Veitch Lister Consulting estimates the initial rush by drivers keen to test-drive the new toll tunnel will fade in just over a year to 60,000 as the toll increases.

The firm says it has provided accurate traffic modelling for Sydney’s Cross City and Lane Cove tunnels and CityLink and EastLink toll roads in Melbourne.

BrisConnections chief executive Dr Ray Wilson.

It has also provided traffic modelling for Clem7 which was not used by the successful bidders, RiverCity Motorway.

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Their Airport Link analysis was published on their website yesterday afternoon and can be viewedhere.

The predictions in the analysis differ markedly from the longer-term traffic projections from Airport Link operator, brisconnections, originally provided by traffic modellers, Arup.

On June 28, brisconnections chief executive officer Ray Wilson told brisbanetimes.com.au that daily traffic would start around 130,000 but grow to around 160,000 by the time the ramp-up period finished.

‘‘That [130,000 vehicles] has to rise to in excess of 160,000 over the ramp-up period,’’ Mr Wilson said.

‘‘We won’t go to full volumes obviously until at least three years,’’ he said.

‘‘I expect that we will have 160,000 by the latter part of this 15-month period that we are talking about.’’

However Veitch Lister Consulting’s modelling predicts that gradually-increasing tolls will decrease the number of vehicles using the toll tunnel.

This would miror the experience at the Clem7 toll tunnel.

Almost 60,000 vehicles a day used Clem7 during the toll-free period but that dropped to an average 20,602 vehicles in the first week of full tolling, it was reported in April 2010.

Veitch Lister Consulting believes that despite ‘‘possibly the best-ever marketing campaign put together for a toll project’’, the impact of Airport Link’s toll would prove too much for motorists.

The Veitch Lister study predicts:- by October 2012 (toll-free period)‘‘By the end of the 3-month toll-free period, our models suggest that Airport Link could be carrying in the order of 120,000 vehicles on a normal weekday, so long as people are enticed to purchase E-Tags to avail themselves of toll free status.’’

- by April 2013 (low tolls period)‘‘VLC's Zenith travel model suggests that towards the end of this low toll period, the road could carry in the order of 85,000 vehicles on a normal weekday.’’

- by October 2013 (medium tolls period)

‘‘VLC's Zenith travel model suggests that towards the end of this medium toll period, the road could carry in the order of 72,000 vehicles on a normal weekday.’’

- after November 2013 (after full tolling is in place)‘‘VLC's Zenith travel model suggests that at its full toll, Airport Link might carry in the order of 60,000 vehicles on an average weekday.’’

These figures also differ markedly from he figures predicted by Arup, the traffic modelling company used by Airport Link.

Arup’s figures predict 138,885 vehicles in the first month after the tunnel opens.

Veitch Lister would make no comment on figures provided by other firms.

"VLC has provided reliable forecasts of travel choices in Australian cities for over 20 years using its Zenith model, which has its origin in the Brisbane Traffic Study of 1988,’’ managing director Mike Veitch said.

‘‘This model was the foundation for the development of State Government models in Queensland, Victoria and South Australia, and is calibrated using Household Travel Surveys collected in each State.’’

Mr Wilson could not be contacted last night, but when issues of variation in traffic figures were raised with him on Thursday he issued a statement saying: ‘‘We have a long term strategy to proactively manage the growth in our traffic numbers – initially through our 15 month toll free and discount period – as well as the development of tailored plans for commercial customers, and other innovative products we will offer the market, including such options as capped plans and the like.’’

‘‘This will be a progressive strategy taking place over the first 36 months of the ramp up phase of our concession. This new part of the M7 network road opens up a completely new corridor for private motorists and commercial users.’’

The tunnel is expected to open within days.

27 comments so far

The Auckland Harbour Bridge has 8 lanes and a moveable median barrier so that the number of lanes in one direction can be varied from 3 to 5 depending on traffic flows. Iis considered to be at full capacity. Its daily traffic flow ? About 155,000 vehicles a day

Commenter

Sceptic

Location

Brisbane

Date and time

July 21, 2012, 11:30AM

And its colloquially known as the Nippon Clipon.

Commenter

Geronimo

Location

Yippee Yi Yo

Date and time

July 22, 2012, 1:30PM

Good luck getting 60,000 vehicles a day through there. I'd say it would more likely be around 20,000 to 30,000. People just don't want to pay. Remember the Sunshine Coast toll roads? They didn't last long and the locals made sure of it by getting rid of the toll booths with bulldozers on the first day of the new government. It will be another white elephant for Brisbane.

Commenter

John Michaels

Location

Offshore

Date and time

July 21, 2012, 12:44PM

Clearly a Labor government waste of money.

Commenter

Donald

Date and time

July 22, 2012, 12:54AM

I can see traffic volume after the free period around 50,000 per day maximum, decreasing to 20 - 30,000 when full tolls apply. Removal of the roadside cash registers might help the figures, but I can't imagine an avaricious gubmunt going without their millions in speeding taxes. Consider the thousands who have been stung in the Clem7, how many of them will line up to be fleeced again in the Airport link ?? Personally I'll avoid both existing disasters and also the Legacy Way until / unless the flash for cash systems are removed and tolls dropped completely.

Commenter

Yes Minister

Location

Woop Woop

Date and time

July 22, 2012, 6:41AM

Joannie Sheldon got rid of the tolls on the Sunshine Motorway, leaving 54 people jobless and the State with a $200 million debt to repay in 1996. This was her electorate.This took years to repay and more than likely explains why the road system on the Sunshine Coast is in it current deplorable state.

Commenter

Clarke Griswald

Location

Wally World

Date and time

July 23, 2012, 5:50AM

Complete and utter garbage.

Either this tunnel will be at total capacity from Day 1 due to its absolute necessity, or it will fail dismally due to grossly inadequate traffic volumes using it - meaning that it was in fact totally unnecessary in the first place.

These people must think we are all fools to believe these rubbish projections. The firm also forgot to mention that Sydney Cross City Tunnel went broke and is now in receivership. Their traffic figures were used in the feasibility study.

Taxpayers getting saddled with more and more debt. Well done Campbell Newman and Blight before him. Thanks for nothing.

Commenter

Thanks for nothing Newman

Location

Bardon

Date and time

July 21, 2012, 1:36PM

A couple in inaccuracies here.

All tolled roads have a period of 'ramp up'. Not to say the AL projection is accurate but the opening tolled AADT is normally less than the AADT after 18 months. This is a pattern common to pretty much most tunnels.

Infrastructure should be built for future expansion and not to meet immediate need. We always berate government for lack of foresight, but when it happens people start getting bent out of shape! With an expected life of 100 yrs+, I expect in 15yrs Brisbane will be genuinely thankful for these pieces of infrastructure.

I'm not sure Cross City Tunnel is now in receivership. It was in 2006, but unless you've heard something different?

To the best of my knowledge there is no transfer of debt to State or BCC. There is a bus tunnel component which is being paid for by BCC and that because the private sector cannot toll buses...this seems fair to me. The rest of the tunnel is being paid for by private finance and those who chose to invest in the project, but definitely no public debt.

Apart from that, you're spot on the money.

JT

Commenter

JT

Location

BNE

Date and time

July 21, 2012, 11:27PM

It's not a case of building for the future.

Taking into account global economic conditions which are extremely likely to get worse and then not improve for many years, we will be seeing considerably less demand placed on the airport both from within and without Australia. This possibility of this downturn alone should have been a key factor in the feasibility study but it was not.

Moreover, the impending slow but significant decline of global oil production will push the price of fuel - both for aviation and on-ground vehicles much higher than at present further impacting on air travel and demand for road space I.e tunnels.

The construction of bigger and bigger roads to alleviate congestion is a complete fallacy. All it actually does is induce more traffic which then requires more and larger roads. It is a tried and proven recipe for transport disaster and is totally unsustainable and disgracefully expensive.

Unfortunately for QLD we have an idiot for a Premier who does not understand the first thing about big picture transportation and so we keep getting 1950's "solutions" to Brisbane's traffic crisis.

Brisbane and QLD deserve much much better.

Commenter

Planes Trains And Automobiles

Location

Ascot

Date and time

July 22, 2012, 10:43PM

Complete and utter garbage.

Either this tunnel will be at total capacity from Day 1 due to its absolute necessity, or it will fail dismally due to grossly inadequate traffic volumes using it - meaning that it was in fact totally unnecessary in the first place.

These people must think we are all fools to believe these rubbish projections. The firm also forgot to mention that Sydney Cross City Tunnel went broke and is now in receivership. Their traffic figures were used in the feasibility study.

Taxpayers getting saddled with more and more debt. Well done Campbell Newman and Blight before him. Thanks for nothing.