Models are in good agreement until Saturday, with a big tornado outbreak possible for Oklahoma and Kansas then. Instability will creep into Michigan Saturday morning and stick around for the weekend, so thunderstorms (even at night) may happen whenever the surges of precipitation happen to move through. Seems like Saturday may feature occasional/scattered precipitation chances (not severe), then Saturday night Michigan should see some leftover storms from the earlier severe weather in Iowa/Illinois/Wisconsin. Sunday has better instability and shear supportive of a few severe storms in Michigan, especially in the southern one-third of Lower Michigan, but exactly when they happen I don’t know. SPC’s SREF models are suggesting reduced precipitation chances Sunday afternoon, with increased precipitation chances in the evening/overnight.

Cort – you are amazing!! I realize this can all change – it IS *Michigan weather*, after all. But I’m feeling like we might sneak in a paddle down the White Sunday afternoon as long as we wear rain gear!

I finally DID cancel the paddle after seeing the winds forecast – even if we weren’t dodging lightning bolts – that wind-blown rain would be right in our faces. We’re a pretty tough group (paddle all year) – but that sounds downright ugly. We’ll try for next week….LOL!! Thanks for your insight, Cort!!!

Now, if S Georgia can just get some rain… when we drove to FLA, we’d cross bridges that clearly were spanning good-sized rivers – only to see a ribbon of dry sand underneath. Or Lake Allatoona, I think, where the boat ramps come to an end, and then there’s 75′ more feet of sand until you reach the water……

Hmmm, I am not too confident in my analysis, but I think it might be possible to see some training at certain points in time this weekend, but I am not very sure. Saturday night I especially want to watch out for this, with the Low-Level Jet in play touching off thunderstorms along a stationary/warm front aloft. It might lead to some backbuilding. I expect individual storm cells to move to the East or ENE at speeds at or above 40 mph, but getting the Low-Level Jet to intersect a stationary lifting mechanism in just the right way in order to touch off backbuilding storms is the key. This doesn’t scream “obvious flash flood setup” to me, but I’m young in my career so maybe I’m wrong. Certainly it looks wet, but hopefully not too wet.

It’s interesting to note that the recent models want to push the front and the majority of thunderstorms and heavy precipitation to Central-Northern Lower Michigan, but NWS Milwaukee notes that it would be wise to expect a more southern solution, since waves of precipitation can suppress northward progress of the front. They say their forecast confidence is medium, and there are a number of pitfalls which might pop up due to this very active pattern, so stay tuned.

Yet another great day in the out of doors. Cut the grass, grilled chicken, had a beer and just shut off the AC. Looks like the summer pattern of a nice mon thru fri and then takes a dump for the weekend is beginning. Prolly the first of many.

“Weird” certainly wasn’t the word that came to my mind when I read about the AC finally being shut off. Since this is a weather blog, with comments by many nice people, I won’t say what I was thinking, LOL!

Cannot wait till Winter, bring on the cold air and lots of snow
and cloudy weather. We do not need severe weather, we need blizzards
instead. Instead of moving someday to Kansas, Nebraska, Oklahoma
for severe weather, I would rather live in the boreal forests
of northern Canada and Alaska, for snow, cold, clouds and snow
on the ground forever.