His ministry site boasts of a large gathering of around 100, 000 people over
the two day period, which is seen as a grossly exaggerated embellishment of the
actual numbers by many who attended. At best, I would estimate that the two-day
attendance was probably closer to the 60,000 person mark, and this I still
believe to be a high estimate.

They have not released the total cost to contributors that was incurred for
this event that enlisted the help of local businesses and 375 churches and their
people hawking bumper stickers, banners, free radio and television recognition,
and the enlistment of a large membership of church going spokesmen who attempted
to invite and entice others to attend and hear the "gospel." For the
large advertising blitz, and the huge cost to pull off this event, one must
question the wisdom of an individuals stewardship of time and resources. Did we
get the "bang-for-the-buck" that we were anticipating? Letís examine
this:

On the Palau website, they boasted a sensational response of 1,800 people
speaking to counselors, and 4,500 people requesting a follow-up booklet. For the
purpose of calculating the results, it will be assumed that the 1,800 are
included in the figure of the 4,500 that requested a booklet, even though the
effectiveness rate would be more accurately represented by only counting the
1,800 people who came forward immediately. In this, I will give them the benefit
of the doubt by using the higher number.

Here are the statistics:

100, 000 people

4,500 "decisions" determined by a request for a book. Of course,
when something is given away for free, many people will always request the
material. This is little indication that they were touched in any way by the
event.

1

2

3

4,500 = 100,000

1,800 = 100,000

3,100 = 60,000

450 = 10,000

180 = 10,000

310 = 6,000

45 = 1,000

18 = 1,000

31 = 600

4.5 = 100

1.8 = 100

3.1 = 60

You will see three columns and three figures. Column one is the estimate from
Luis Palau.

Column two is the tally from the results of those who actually came forward.

Column three is the is the average between those who came forward and those
who requested a booklet. This column also uses the reduced, but in all
probability, still exaggerated numbers that were estimated by many who were in
attendance, including myself.

If we are to assume that the average church attendance for the Treasure
Valley is 100 on any given Sunday, we would be satisfied at the results given in
any column for an effectiveness rate. There are however other factors to
consider.

1. The average apostasy rate for these crusades have been found to be at 80 -
90% after only one year.

2. The numbers are based upon responses, and not on actual results. There are
those who chronically respond to every altar call. There are those who think
they are doing God a favor by "priming the pump" by responding to any
altar call in order to encourage others around them to do the same. They will
seize any opportunity to come forward, or raise their hands, or pray the
"sinnerís prayer" in response to any plea. This is well intentioned,
but dishonors the work of the Spirit by "assisting" with human
manipulation. These actions tend to skew the numbers of many evangelistic
efforts. These factors I believe would account for a minimum of 1-3% of the
total results tallied. In the case of a free book, much higher responses could
be expected by those who wanted to receive something from this event. We could
realistically put these estimates to such an offer into the arena of around 30 -
40%. Without a doubt, the numbers given by Luis Palau are an exploded view that
accepts all these responses as genuine conversions.

With these considerations, lets make some conservative adjustments to the
numbers. I will adjust the " pump-primers " and chronic responders by
the lowest possible adjustment, a conservative 1%. I will adjust the total
apostasy rate to the 80%, and not the high end of 90%.

This will leave the totals clearly in the favor of the statistics of
Palauís organization.

1

2

3

4,500

1,800

3100

-1% 45

-1% 18

-1% 31

Total 4,465

Total 1,782

Total 3069

Apostasy - 3,571

Apostasy - 1,426

Apostasy - 2701

Total 894

Total 356

Total 368

Effectiveness .9 per 100

Eff. (Per 100) .4

Eff.
(per 100) .6

In figure 3, we have taken the total amount recorded down to a more realistic
attendance number which actually increases his success rate by .2 of a person.
This is based upon a 60,000 person total and not 100,000 as is claimed.

By using the best case scenario, which is column 1, we can make some positive
and negative observations. If the high-end figures can be trusted, then we can
rejoice about 894 souls being won to the Lord out of 100,000. This
"festival," which cost in figures of several hundred thousand dollars,
was worth every penny. The disturbing aspect of these figures is that 3,571
people are to become backsliders. Now I say this loosely because you have to be
a Christian in order to backslide "from" it. The vast majority prayed
a prayer in hopes of fire insurance. They did not have faith; they were not
asked to repent of their sins, nor did their prayer demand that they do. They
were to merely "acknowledge" their sinfulness, not repent, and they
were to "accept" Jesus into their hearts. They have been told that
they are now saved forever without any evidence that they have been regenerated.
When they fail to have the peace and victory that the indwelling Holy Spirit
brings to the believer, they will not only reject this easy "gospel"
as a farce, they will assume from their experience that it is this religion and
its God is a farce, and will reject Jesus as the hope for any of their future
salvation! This is called being inoculated from Christ!

I know that they hail Mr. Palau as an outstanding evangelist, but if we hired
a local evangelist to come to our church and he never got a response of more
than one in one hundred, his calling would come into question and he would soon
find that the invitations to preach would dry up! We would consider him a dismal
failure! But if we have a festival or a crusade, and the famous preacher yields
the same results of less than one genuine convert per 100 listeners, and at the
cost of over $2,000 per convert to accomplish it, it is considered a miracle, a
great revival!

If we were to see a local evangelist have a failure rate of 80-90%, we would
ask them to stay away in fear that they may ruin the congregation that we
already have! Why is it that we look for an easy answer to our lack of
evangelism by hiring these big name evangelists to come in and "save"
our communities? There is so much effort and drive in the people when the big
crusade is coming to town, but they will barely lift a finger to evangelize or
invite others to church after the crusade is over! It is as if they believe that
a certain "man" will save them and not the Lord Jesus they worship on
Sunday morning!

Imagine if all of the time, money, and resources that our congregation
members put into the big crusades was put into the local church! I would say
that without a doubt, they would yield much higher conversion rates, a much
lower apostasy rate, and a cost far below $2,000 a head for a conversion. In
fact, I would say if this effort were put forth, that congregation would have no
interest in bringing in a big-time evangelist because the ministry will be
taking place in their midst, and the Gospel will be sent forth! It would be an
exciting place to be! Wild horses could not keep you away when the church doors
were open!

Lord, help us to be wise stewards of our money, time , and resources. May we
see that you are at work in our midst in a much more mighty way, though on a
smaller scale, than these big powerful ministries.

For those that would be interested in the worst case scenarios, I include the
following data.

1

2

4,500

1,800

-3% 135

-3% 54

Total 4,365

Total 1,746

Apostasy-
3,928 (90%)

Apostasy -1,571 (90%)

Total 437

Total 175

Effectiveness
.4 per 100

Eff. (Per 100) .18 (.2)

1 in 240 people

1 in over 500 people

I estimate the cost of pulling off this 2 day event was in the ballpark of
$400,000. Using the best case numbers in our original list, which are based upon
the 4,500 which are claimed by Palau, brings us down to just under $400.00 a
convert.

The worst case scenario shows the numbers who wanted a free book in column 1,
and the number of those that came forward in column 2. Column 1 calculated out
to around $1,000 per convert, and column 2 comes in in excess of $2,000 per
convert.

Looking at the cost effectiveness at the high or the low end, I cannot help
but be unimpressed. It brings into question the idea of stewardship. The money
spent for the "festival" is gone. If it were spent in the local church
it would still be working months, if not years from now, not to mention the
economic impact in our local community. Larger impact would result over time
than we could ever hope for from a 2 day event.