Starting Pitching Notes: Harvey, Cole, McCarthy, Greinke, Hellickson

Starting pitchers could dominate talks leading up to this summer’s trade deadline, ESPN’s Buster Olney writes in his latest Insider-only column. In addition to long-discussed trade candidates like White Sox southpaw Jose Quintana, struggling would-be contenders like the Mets, Blue Jays, Royals, and Pirates could put some of their own arms on the market if they’re fully out of the pennant race by July. Olney’s column is well worth a full read for his listing of every potential name on the market, though here are a few of the particular hot stove notables…

Some evaluators believe the Mets would listen to offers for Matt Harvey if they fall out of the running in the NL East. The former ace has been whispered in trade rumors for a couple of years due to both off-the-field controversy and a seeming likelihood that he will test the free agent market after the 2018 season (Scott Boras is Harvey’s agent). Of course, Harvey’s stock has dropped due to an injury-plagued 2016 campaign, and the righty has been only average (4.25 ERA, 5.5 K/9, 1.8 K/BB rate) over 29.2 IP and five starts this season. Harvey has been been homer-prone this season and his average fastball velocity is 93.8 mph, two full miles down from his 2015 velocity. Still, as long as Harvey stays healthy, one would think he’d still receive a lot of deadline attention given his past history.

Gerrit Cole is also a Boras client, and since “there is a wide expectation” that Cole won’t stay with the Pirates when his current deal is up after 2019, the righty could be a deadline chip. Olney writes that some teams felt Pittsburgh was even willing to listen to offers for Cole last year. With two-plus years of team control left, Cole could well be the most sought-after name on the market if the Bucs indeed made him available, though Cole also has a fairly checkered injury history over the last three years. The right-hander has a 3.60 ERA, 8.1 K/9, 4.5 K/BB rate, and 47.1% grounder rate through 30 innings this season. Dealing Cole wouldn’t necessarily indicate a rebuild for the Pirates, as the team could seek to gain some MLB-ready young talent that could help them make a quick rebound in 2018.

Some contending teams could also look to shop pitching, as Olney notes that the Dodgers could again try to move Brandon McCarthy after they were unable to find a taker last winter. McCarthy has a 3.10 ERA, 7.76 K/9, and 2.78 K/BB rate through 29 innings, finally looking to be in good form after missing much of 2015-16 due to Tommy John surgery. Of course, given McCarthy’s long injury history, interested teams will surely want to see if the veteran can stay healthy before making any trade offers. In my opinion, I’d think that the Dodgers might want to hang onto McCarthy given the team’s other injury and performance issues within their rotation.

Even with Zack Greinke pitching well and the Diamondbacks battling for first in the NL West, Greinke’s huge salary will still make the D’Backs open to discussing a trade, rival evaluators believe. Greinke is owed roughly $167MM through the end of the 2021 season, single-handedly accounting for a such a big percentage of Arizona’s current and future payroll commitments that a trade may well be in the best long-term interest of the team. Of course, if the D’Backs are still contending into July, GM Mike Hazen will face pressure to keep Greinke so he can help the club reach the postseason for just the third time in 15 seasons.

A busier-than-expected pitching market could also lead to some players staying put, as Olney suggests the Phillies could look to extend Jeremy Hellickson and make him a building block of their rotation. Hellickson has a 1.80 ERA through 30 innings this season, though his ERA predictors and peripheral numbers (3.3 K/9, .196 BABIP, 86.2% strand rate, 3.63 FIP, 5.26 xFIP, 5.34 SIERA) suggest that he has been quite fortunate to get such good results. One would think Philadelphia would try to sell high on Hellickson if he keeps outperforming the advanced metrics to such a large extent, though obviously other teams will be wary of those numbers as well.

Comments

This is why you aren’t in a front office. It always makes sense to see what kind of value other teams have currently in your players in case you sense a better return to your franchise going forward. This is why nearly every player is placed on waivers every summer.

As for Hellickson, the Phillies have like 10 guys who are either MLB-ready, or will be within the next year or two that can be #3-4 guys in a rotation, no need to throw 60M+ at Hellickson. Trade him, if hes going real well, maybe you can get a nice little return (ala Ryan Dempster, Scott Feldman, Andrew Cashner), if he starts to stink up the place, use him to limit the innings of your young SP until he reaches FA at the end of the year

The Mets need to trade Harvey no matter what: this year if they don’t rebound or over the summer. They can’t afford to keep him, need young hitters, and need to pay for a couple veteran pitchers who stay healthy (I’d kill to have Bartolo back right now).

Olney even mentioned the Yankee prospect Frazier. I think Harvey is a good fit for the Yanks. They aren’t so desperate they have to overuse him

Wrong Eventually. Every pitcher is ten starts away from an extended DL stint. Mets pitchers, Harvey included are 1-2 starts away because the team has incompetent leadership, from Sandy “in denial” Alderson to “who cares about their long term health “TC” who is still hanging onto his job because he has consistently pushed pitchers past their limit.
It started with Johan, and you cannot deny that Eventually. Stop your denial and deflection and get real that this is a
team sport and your team could care less.
Weak management is a constant thread that has plagued your team for decades

If you tell 100 fans the story for the past ten days, without revealing the team; and ask them to fill in the blank and tell you what team would allow this to happen, 98 pick the Mets. They are a large market team that’s an embarrassment to New York.

Honestly McCarthy seemed like a good signing at the time, and seems like one now. That pesky TJ is the only thing that makes me not like his deal overall. It wouldn’t be the worst thing if they traded him, but the chances of his arm exploding again aren’t very good and he’s been decent. Depends what the offer is, but Id be inclined to keep him.

If they are overwhelmed with an offer for Cole, he will be gone. Maybe more so next season. He will be gone before FA time because no way will they be able to get into a bidding war over him and they will not want to lose him for nothing.

I had always thought Cole would be traded in the winter of 2017 for AAA prospects, but even if the Pirates are in contention why not flip him at this year’s deadline and then make a deal for Quintana or another arm not repped by Boras? It can be a lateral move.

Either way, Taillon is the ace of that staff and Nova hasn’t been far behind.

Uhhh what? You NEVER trade a Major League contributor in the middle of a playoff race! EVER! That’s what Billy Beane did with Yoenis Cespedes and look how that turned out!
Now, if the Pirates aren’t contending at the deadline it’s another story.

If he continues to pitch like he has this April, or in the unfortunate event he has any injuries that cost him any fairly significant amount of time, I would not say his opt out is a sure thing. Though I do fully expect him to return to ace form soon and opt out.

Yeah, I hate it but it needs to happen.
I’m still pissed they traded Tate for Beltran. “Oh cool we finally got a high upside piii….annnnnd he’s gone.”

Martin Perez and Chi Chi both suck. Martinez has me on the fence. We really need to get some early 20’s pitchers to go along with Odor, Gallo, Mazara, and Profar (if he ever figures it out). Otherwise we’re gonna waste these guys just like we wasted Juan Gonzalez, Clark, Greer, and Pudge.

It’d be nice to still have Brinson too. I can live with that trade though. The Tate trade was awful.

Tate hasn’t been impressive at all though especially considering he was supposed to be a quick mover so I would be more mad about the pick than the trade. Martinez has been impressive so far this season if he can maintain his improved velocity and K rate I think he could be really good. Hamels’ peripheral numbers early this season have been very concerning so I think it might be time to dump that contract while we can. I had hopes for Perez coming into this season but he’s still walking too many people and giving up too much contact. I would hate to see Gomez, darvish, and Lucroy walk without getting a haul back for them

As a rangers fan, maybe we need to unload some players, restock our farm system and try to bounce back next year. I say resign lucroy if you can and if darvish wouldn’t be too high resign him too depends on who is out there in the free agent market. I would trade Gomez, cashner, and Martin Perez.

Phillies better trade Hellickson
They have so many young guys who need opportunities (Nola, Eickhoff, Vinny, Thompson, Eflin, Pivetta, Pinto, Lively and even Appel) — no need for a glorified 4-5 guy to get paid like an ace when you have 9 guys (nearly 2 full rotations) competing to fill up 5 spots.
Also don’t forget the guys like Gowdy, Kilyome and Sixto who are still far off, but have endless potential

Hellickson isn’t taking an extension from anyone. Phils need to just trade him to the highest bidder at the deadline. And if they really like him, nothing says they can’t do what the Yankees did with Chapman and re-sign him in the offseason.

I don’t understand this recurring argument for how the D’backs have to consider trading Grienke because of the “percentage” his contract represents of the overall team payroll. Aren’t we always hearing how having a bunch of bargain-priced controllable talent gives teams the financial flexibility to make key free agent signings? So is there a right way to sign big-ticket free agents, or just a couple of different wrong ways?

Man, I absolutely love that the Dbags are having buyers remorse with Greinke. As a Dodger fan, I have no love for Zack ’cause he is the epitome of a baseball merc but, watching the Dbacks front office squirm for their obviously emotional buy of Greinke is just so damn fun! What an incredibly stupid overpriced signing.