Stage Appears Set for Conn Job

Even though Duke is ranked No. 1 and seeded first overall in the NCAA tournament, make no mistake: The favorite on sheer talent is Connecticut.

Sophomore forward Rudy Gay will be an NBA lottery pick when he turns pro even though he doesn't always play to his potential.

Forwards Josh Boone and Hilton Armstrong and point guard Marcus Williams look as if they'll be first-round picks too, and guards Denham Brown and Rashad Anderson could go in the second. (Boone and Williams, like Gay, are underclassmen.)

Having the best assortment of NBA talent doesn't necessarily translate into a national championship, of course, but the threats in the regional aren't overwhelming.

Tennessee, seeded second, lost four of its last six games. The real threat is probably defending champion North Carolina, but the Tar Heels are a freshman-laden team after their own exodus of NBA talent.

Illinois has Dee Brown and James Augustine from the starting five that lost to North Carolina in the title game but is hardly the same team.

Washington has a terrific player in Brandon Roy, but was swept by Washington State.

Michigan State has a toughness that can cause teams trouble and offensive threats in Maurice Ager, Paul Davis and Shannon Brown.

But back to Connecticut: When Anderson — who scored 18 points in the 2004 NCAA championship game but has had health problems — comes off the bench, you know a team is loaded.

You could compare Connecticut to the North Carolina team with Sean May, Rashad McCants, Raymond Felton and Marvin Williams that won last season.

But with capable shooters and a point guard who can deliver the ball and make free throws if the game is close — and a Hall of Fame coach in Jim Calhoun — there's not any good reason to bet against Connecticut.

 Scouting report: The Volunteers, upset by South Carolina in a quarterfinal of the SEC tournament, lost four of their last six games. Still, it has been a strong first season for Coach Bruce Pearl, who has the Volunteers in the NCAA tournament for the first time since 2001.

 Revenue/expenses: $5,360,050/$4,503,085.

 Little-known fact: The Volunteers have more than 100 more steals than their opponents.

 Scouting report: The Fighting Illini win with defense and rebounding. They led the Big Ten and ranked sixth nationally in scoring defense, giving up an average of 57.7 points. They out-rebounded opponents by nearly seven a game.

 Revenue/expenses: $11,346,034/$3,239,017.

 Little-known fact: Only Duke, with 177 wins, has won more games than Illinois (166) in the last six seasons.

 Scouting report: The Great Danes like to pound the ball inside to Brent Wilson but Jamar Wilson, the America East player of the year, is the one who makes everything work.

 Revenue/expenses: $156,279/$780,993.

 Little-known fact: The last time Albany won at least 20 games was in 1993-94.

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REGIONAL BREAKDOWN

BEST FIRST-ROUND GAME

No. 8 Kentucky vs. No. 9 Ala. Birmingham

Two seasons ago, UAB upset top-seeded Kentucky in the second round with the frenzied "40 minutes of hell" style Coach Mike Anderson learned under Nolan Richardson at Arkansas. There's more history: UAB upset Kentucky in the second round in 1981 as well. UAB's upset credentials this season are bolstered by a victory over Memphis, although the Blazers also lost to Memphis twice.

UPSET IN THE MAKING

No. 10 Seton Hall over No. 7 Wichita State

It doesn't sound like an upset, but with Seton Hall seeded 10th and Wichita State seeded seventh, it qualifies. Wichita State is one of those Missouri Valley Conference teams that compiled a very good RPI for no very obvious reason, and this will be a referendum on the MVC. Mutual-opponent note: Wichita State defeated Providence by eight at home. Seton Hall, the seventh-place team in the Big East, defeated Providence on the road by three.

IMPACT PLAYER

Marcus Williams, Connecticut

You can make an argument for Washington's Brandon Roy or North Carolina's Tyler Hansbrough, whose 40-point performance against Georgia Tech set the Atlantic Coast Conference freshman scoring record. But since Connecticut is the pick, stick with Williams, the Huskies' most important player. After sitting out the first 11 games this season because of his involvement in the theft of some laptop computers — and stirring controversy when he returned — he has averaged 8.6 assists.

THE FORECAST

Connecticut

It will be UConn over North Carolina in the regional final. And at the Final Four, Jim Calhoun will have a chance to match Bob Knight and Mike Krzyzewski by winning his third title. If Connecticut wins, Calhoun will have won his championships in eight years and would be tied with Knight and Krzyzewski for most titles by any coach not named John Wooden or Adolph Rupp. (Wooden won 10 titles and Rupp won four.)