Hmm... less than 60 hours left until the start of the State meet. I think I will take a jab at a state prediction.
Boys: Slightly ILH, underclassman heavy (1 senior!)
1) Margarito Martinez- Very dominant this year including competition against ILH. Beat Murphy in the first meet. Win by 5-10 seconds
2) Pierce Murphy- He will keep up with Martinez. The Murphy who was beaten by Martinez by 30 seconds is gone. Just came off the Mt. SAC invite, running 16:15 on a very tough course against good competition.
3) Jordan Thibodeau- I agree with D3, he is a very good runner and I think he can keep up with this front pack. No more than 10 seconds behind 2nd place. If the other two go out too fast and he holds himself back, potential winner.
4) Troy Esaki- Most consistent Iolani runner, even though he was beaten by Pleskacz the last 2 meets.
5) Nikolai Schaerer- I just got a feeling he could do well here. Kind of an underdog guess.
6) Isaiah Sato- Hopefully, last year's state meet performance won't haunt him
7) Borys Pleskacz-Strong runner, hopefully he doesn't go out too fast like he has done before. Rocky Balala- That 3rd place finish at MIL's was a fluke because he missed the turn. Now that he won't be leading, he will not miss any turns.
9) Chris Mosch- I don't know how he will do against any of these runners since he hasn't had the chance to run against any of them.
10) Nicola Perez Garreaud- While I think other runners are better, he may finish here. Another underdog guess.

Girls:
1) Hailey Grossman-Winner all year, tore up Oahu competition when she ran against the best of the OIA and ILH (by 10+ seconds)
2) Ellie Brady- Dominant at ILH champs, time for her to show her soccer conditioning at the flattest course she will run at.
3) Gabriella Jenkins-Also dominant at her conference champs, but I feel Brady will beat her by a hair.
4) Kristin Ali Keith- She wants her crown back. Will she get it? I think she will be close, but fall short.
5) Tia Greenwell- I will get some heat from putting her this low. I feel she hasn't been strong enough, but unlike Keith, has one more season.
6) Kyleigh Mann- Good track runner. Also has been strong all year.
7) Claire Hann- A senior runner who has not always been consistent but has stepped it up the last few weeks. Right behind Mann. Julia Brand- Also a good track runner, just not an event typical of everyone else (300H state champ). Her raw foot speed could really help her on a fast course like this.
9) Kimberly Pugliese- Nice 3rd place finish at OIA champs. If she repeats her performance, she should be around here.
10) Jenna Wong- I think her 10th place at ILH was a fluke. I think she is better. Also an underdog guess.

I`d like to pick an upset winner in the girls race. Gabriella Jennings from Mililani has the closing speed to pull the upset if she doesn`t let the leader(s) get too much of a gap on her. The flat fast course should help her maintain contact. She earned a track medal in the 1500 as a freshman that showed her legspeed.

I think both Jenkins and Brady have a shot at beating Grossman. Both runners are young and they have been getting better with each race. Both of them won their leagues convincingly. According to the papers, Brady ran alone for most of the ILH Champ race, ran a fast 19:07 and beat the pack by 46 seconds. Jenkins' 19:37 was 27 seconds ahead of the pack, and only 14 seconds slower than Grossman's 19:23 on the same course. What could both these girls run on Saturday if they are being pushed? Both appear to be peaking at the perfect time. Grossman is the favorite, but she may get a run for her money from Jenkins and Brady! Wish I could afford to fly over and watch.

BTW: On 13 Sep I wrote: "Here's a "fun" fact for the season. If "Mystery Girl" is Elli Brady, then Gabby Jenkins is her good friend. They hung out at Summer track. OIA vs ILH #1's and they're BFF's?"

When these guys who've qualified for the State meet, cross the finish line,
Look at the time, guys,
that time is the culmination of all the hard work you have put into the season,
distilled into those few valuable minutes of competition. Those who have earned
a spot in this year's championship have well deserved opportunity to prove themselves
against the best this state has to offer. Good luck to all at the race on Kauai!

Looks like the upset happened with Grossman losing in the girls race... to Brady of Punahou. Mililani girls put up some good early numbers but the Punahou girls got the State Team Championship.

On the boys side....it wasn't even close...in the Individual or Team Championship. Margarito showed he was clearly the best in the state regardless of home course advantage. The Kamehameha boys finished off a dominant team season. Looks like it was a great day of racing.

Congrats to all who participated....you all ran hard and won in my book. See you all next year here on Oahu at Patsy Mink Regional Park.

I just had some thoughts about today's course, as I anticipated seeing what it would be like:

A course like this lends itself to strategic surging, tactical maneuvering, and chances to run fast. I think the course was a bit slower than expected, but that is because the turns, narrow stretches (and humidity) were just enough to keep this from being a track meet. I also thought, and I'm sure it would be a consensus, that this course was very spectator friendly.

Unfortunately, I think it would also be a consensus that the straightaway off the line was too short before the first turn. The race must go on, however, and I'm glad the athletes were able to negotiate the turn successfully after the first start was called back. I thought Island School put on a great meet and I'm sure if they had to do it again they would try to remedy the tight start.

Thank you to Island School for being a great host and great job to all of the students that ran today!

Here's the final stats on some of the major Top 10 predictors this year (how's my math?). This was based on picking the correct person and place they would finish, the correct teams and the place they would finish, the correct person in the Top 10 regardless of place, and the correct teams in the Top 5 regardless of place. Except for 800 Runner most had Top 5 picks for teams. The most accurate for 2009 is 800 Runner, even if you count the only 3 teams picked, as 3 out of 5 (60%), his overall predictions are the still the most accurate.