This is why everybody should have at least a few diversified energy stocks in their core portfolio. None of my holdings have any exposure to oil fields in Iraq so any spike in oil prices will translate into nice gains (indeed it already has since early May) during the normally dull summer months.

thewoodman:Gas prices go too high, people quit using as much, demand and prices go down. Demand stays up, Saudis open up the taps little after a call from the US, and Strategic Oil Reserve lets go of a little, prices come down. Destroying the world economy with too high of fuel prices is not going to happen.

Cyclometh:some_beer_drinker: sounds hawt. let's get some boots on the ground.

Joking aside, I'm deadly serious. Unless the US is willing to commit to the kind of scale of warfare that we saw in WWII- utter devastation on a massive scale and concomitant casualties, we're just not going to have the results people seem to think we will. Unless you're willing to accept that we'd have to do what was done in Dresden, Osaka, Kassel, Darmstadt, London, and Berlin- completely destroy cities and commit the resources to see that it's actually done, and follow it up with, as you so prosaically put it, "boots on the ground", we're not going to see success in any "regime change" we ever attempt militarily.

Bullshiat. Look at Britain's occupation of India and China. Any change will take decades of occupation. Even after 100 years of occupation India and Hong Kong didn't change all that much. War won't do it alone, you'll have to modify their way of thinking and that would take at least three generations. Two generations will have to die off and a third raised with our ideology. At the very least. Lol the pro tempore government would have to be half comprised of of behaviorologists and ad men.

RanDomino:destrip: Iraq was under the power of a greedy dictator for years, gas prices were cheap and stable ($1.29-1.39 from the 80s - early 2000s)We took over Iraq, gas prices went up to unprecedented highs (remember, most gas pumps were, by design, incapable of registering more than $1.99 a gallon?)Iraq achieved "independence," gas prices stayed up.Iraq has issues again, gas prices go up.Something doesn't quite add up here.

As far as the yahoos taking over cities there, there are relatively few roads between cities. As the "militants" are a bunch of towelheads riding around in Toyota pickups, why can't we, or the Iraqi army for that matter, just bomb or blockade the main highways leading into Baghdad? If the militants can't get there they can't take anything over. Blast 'em into the stone age like we did to Saddam's army when they were fleeing Kuwait during Desert Storm.

Better yet, go high tech and use an EMP weapon to disable the pickups!

arcas:This is why everybody should have at least a few diversified energy stocks in their core portfolio. None of my holdings have any exposure to oil fields in Iraq so any spike in oil prices will translate into nice gains (indeed it already has since early May) during the normally dull summer months.

I'm sure most Americans who drive to work on empty will get right on that.

I don't have a problem with this. If you don't pay for road costs through use taxes, then it is going to come from the general budget. People with high incomes end up subsidizing the cost of heavy commuters.

When gasoline was over $5.50/gal a few year back, it was great. The rush hour commute was similar to that of a bank holiday, parking lots at stores weren't at capacity and there were no teenagers loitering around the mall. And when you look at total cost of ownership for your vehicle, gasoline was still a bargain.

You can't be serious.There have been Al Qaeda flags being raised in every city ISIS has taken over.You think Al Qaeda is really not out there anymore?

A lot of people think of Al Qaeda as a monolithic entity, a centrally controlled organization with coordinated activity all over. That's incorrect. "Al Qaeda" means "The Base" or maybe "The Foundation". it's not an umbrella organization, and isn't a central controlling entity. It's a network of affiliated, independent and sometimes opposed groups. Some are more militant and violent than others.

Al Qaeda supports these groups, but is not itself these groups. ISIS is not Al Qaeda, nor is ISIL- although it's not clear to me that those two are separate, they seem to be.

Laobaojun:Which is absolute profiteering bull crap, as only 3% of US oil is imported from Iraq.Farking treasonous, self-serving actions by the US oil industry.

are we co-authoring a newsletter?

/great mind yadda yadda or it is fools seldom differ?

some well owner was trying to tell me today that the days of cheap gas are over forever. Hell, I'm not looking for 29 cents a gallon, if they can't make a profit at 2 dollars a gallon, then fark them. pump price is triple what it was in '92 (1.25), even with inflation, it shouldn't be more than 2.11 today.

You can't be serious.There have been Al Qaeda flags being raised in every city ISIS has taken over.You think Al Qaeda is really not out there anymore?

Still around? Sure, but I don't think it's incorrect to say they've been decimated either (by the literal definition of the word). AQ and ISIS also.. don't really get along. They have similar goals and are both Sunni, but they clash on methodology.

If it's true that "AQ flags are popping up", then it's in ISIS' wake, not in cooperation.

Saddam should have been left in power. Ever heard of the expression "the devil you know"? At least with him we knew he could control the religious whackjobs.It's a shame we can't sit back and let the two muslim factions kill each other, because of farking oil prices.

nyseattitude:thewoodman: Gas prices go too high, people quit using as much, demand and prices go down. Demand stays up, Saudis open up the taps little after a call from the US, and Strategic Oil Reserve lets go of a little, prices come down. Destroying the world economy with too high of fuel prices is not going to happen.

Every commodity is a supply/demand commodity. Oil is almost uniquely a commodity for which "supply" is tightly controlled (OPEC). Speculation serves to reduce volatility, as counter-intuitive as that may sound. Look at what happened when onion speculation was outlawed. Onion prices became extremely volatile, and products made from onions went UP in price, as manufacturers included an un-hedgeable risk premium. If oil speculation were outlawed, oil prices would begin to fluctuate wildly, consumers of oil would have to stockpile it, and gas prices would stabilize at a higher value (Cost + profit + risk premium). Speculation allows oil consumers (refineries, etc.) to eliminate the risk premium over certain time horizons.

Except that despite all the right-wingers trying to gin up ISIS to either a) embarrass Obama, B) whip up sentiment for yet another military incursion, or C) all of the above, Baghdad is not about to fall anytime soon. The group is likely to get wiped out by a combination force of Kurds, shiate militia groups, and Iran. And then the country will be partitioned into three regions as probably should have happened 5 years ago.

Saddam should have been left in power. Ever heard of the expression "the devil you know"? At least with him we knew he could control the religious whackjobs.It's a shame we can't sit back and let the two muslim factions kill each other, because of farking oil prices.

Oil prices, (or rather Saddam's threat to stop trading on the USD) is specifically why (the -real- reason, anyway) he was deposed.

danno_to_infinity:Laobaojun: Which is absolute profiteering bull crap, as only 3% of US oil is imported from Iraq.Farking treasonous, self-serving actions by the US oil industry.

are we co-authoring a newsletter?

/great mind yadda yadda or it is fools seldom differ?

some well owner was trying to tell me today that the days of cheap gas are over forever. Hell, I'm not looking for 29 cents a gallon, if they can't make a profit at 2 dollars a gallon, then fark them. pump price is triple what it was in '92 (1.25), even with inflation, it shouldn't be more than 2.11 today.

Your hypothetical newsletter sucks. If Iraqi oil went to $3 per barrel, we would start buying it. Starting from that logic and working your way outward, if Iraqi oil gets more expensive, Iraq's neighbors will start buying oil from other neighbors. Those other neighbors will then raise their prices in order to sell their oil at the maximum price they can get. This flows through the global economy. Oil producers in the US are small potatoes, and cannot really influence prices here. If they increased their prices 50%, we'd start importing oil from the nearest oil producing nation that doesn't sound like vuvuzela.

Close2TheEdge:Except that despite all the right-wingers trying to gin up ISIS to either a) embarrass Obama, B) whip up sentiment for yet another military incursion, or C) all of the above, Baghdad is not about to fall anytime soon. The group is likely to get wiped out by a combination force of Kurds, shiate militia groups, and Iran. And then the country will be partitioned into three regions as probably should have happened 5 years ago.

I thought it was refining capacity that kept prices high. Are tankers sitting around or is it crude supply, or is it something else used to buoy the market this time? How about a butterfly in china farking it up for the rest of us?

You can't be serious.There have been Al Qaeda flags being raised in every city ISIS has taken over.You think Al Qaeda is really not out there anymore?

A lot of people think of Al Qaeda as a monolithic entity, a centrally controlled organization with coordinated activity all over. That's incorrect. "Al Qaeda" means "The Base" or maybe "The Foundation". it's not an umbrella organization, and isn't a central controlling entity. It's a network of affiliated, independent and sometimes opposed groups. Some are more militant and violent than others.

Al Qaeda supports these groups, but is not itself these groups. ISIS is not Al Qaeda, nor is ISIL- although it's not clear to me that those two are separate, they seem to be.

Didn't Al Qaeda renounce them for being too violent? Or was that a different group? I can't keep my terrorist cliques straight these days.

Nemosomen:nyseattitude: thewoodman: Gas prices go too high, people quit using as much, demand and prices go down. Demand stays up, Saudis open up the taps little after a call from the US, and Strategic Oil Reserve lets go of a little, prices come down. Destroying the world economy with too high of fuel prices is not going to happen.

Every commodity is a supply/demand commodity. Oil is almost uniquely a commodity for which "supply" is tightly controlled (OPEC). Speculation serves to reduce volatility, as counter-intuitive as that may sound. Look at what happened when onion speculation was outlawed. Onion prices became extremely volatile, and products made from onions went UP in price, as manufacturers included an un-hedgeable risk premium. If oil speculation were outlawed, oil prices would begin to fluctuate wildly, consumers of oil would have to stockpile it, and gas prices would stabilize at a higher value (Cost + profit + risk premium). Speculation allows oil consumers (refineries, etc.) to eliminate the risk premium over certain time horizons.

the problem with futures is that it doesn't take into account discounts, and the market never ever sees those discounts.

didn't know about the onion thing, but i don't see two organizations controlling 98% of the oil market. regardless, it's a good and bad analogy.

Cyclometh:zerkalo: And another civil war begins. It's gonna be armagheddon, millions slaughtered

Don't know about millions- maybe over the entire timeframe. But it was obvious what was going to happen at the outset.

The US keeps thinking they can do this thing where they go in with the military, kick some ass for a while, spend a bunch of money and then put in whatever government they want.

It simply doesn't work. Korea, Vietnam, Iraq, Afghanistan... the last time we managed to actually install a new government in a defeated enemy nation was pretty much Japan.

And nobody's willing to consider the price required to do it again. I've said it before and I'll stand by it- unless you're willing to see at least 15% of an entire generation dead, you're not going to win. If you want to completely destroy a government and replace it, you have to be willing to destroy their society and that means killing a lot of people. Whether it's bullets, bombs or nukes, you have to be willing to murder entire cities, not just individuals or small areas.

Until we remember that to defeat an enemy means to kill enough of them that the entire culture is broken, we'll keep coming back here. You can't engage in nation-building unless you're willing to engage in nation-destroying.

The reason we're so bad at it is that we can't stomach the cost unless it's imposed on us, as it was in World War II. When it's our own choice, we're not willing to do what's necessary to actually accomplish the goal. And that's why it's always been a bad idea, and will continue to be one because we spend blood and treasure for nothing.

gnosis301:Cyclometh: Japan's kind of a special case because nukes changed the game; look what happened to Japanese culture in the wake of those.

Go on.

To be fair, I'm oversimplifying things- this is Fark, after all. But it's quite clear that Japanese culture changed radically after its defeat and the occupation. There are arguments to be made that pre-war Japan wasn't all that different from post-war in many ways, and that the militaristic expansion and conquest phase it entered into that culminated in WWII was historically, maybe not an aberration, but not exactly typical.

But it's pretty clear that Japan's defeat required something pretty devastating, and that has had effects on its culture ever since.

Unless we're willing to conquer and occupy- and that means a lot of death or as someone else pointed out several generations of occupation (and probably more violence to suppress insurgency), none of which the US seems willing to do of late, believing (wrongly) that we can get to these places of changing a society without paying such a toll.

Bob Dolemite:Nemosomen: nyseattitude: thewoodman: Gas prices go too high, people quit using as much, demand and prices go down. Demand stays up, Saudis open up the taps little after a call from the US, and Strategic Oil Reserve lets go of a little, prices come down. Destroying the world economy with too high of fuel prices is not going to happen.

Every commodity is a supply/demand commodity. Oil is almost uniquely a commodity for which "supply" is tightly controlled (OPEC). Speculation serves to reduce volatility, as counter-intuitive as that may sound. Look at what happened when onion speculation was outlawed. Onion prices became extremely volatile, and products made from onions went UP in price, as manufacturers included an un-hedgeable risk premium. If oil speculation were outlawed, oil prices would begin to fluctuate wildly, consumers of oil would have to stockpile it, and gas prices would stabilize at a higher value (Cost + profit + risk premium). Speculation allows oil consumers (refineries, etc.) to eliminate the risk premium over certain time horizons.

the problem with futures is that it doesn't take into account discounts, and the market never ever sees those discounts.

didn't know about the onion thing, but i don't see two organizations controlling 98% of the oil market. regardless, it's a good and bad analogy.

"Discounts?" Are you referring to discounts like those that Russia used to give Ukraine? Futures buyers do not have access to those "discounts," which are really just disguised foreign aid. Any other "discount" between two private entities would just be equivalent to a future that was traded off-exchange.

Please correct me if I'm misinterpreting what you mean by discount, as I legitimately would like to know.

You can't be serious.There have been Al Qaeda flags being raised in every city ISIS has taken over.You think Al Qaeda is really not out there anymore?

Still around? Sure, but I don't think it's incorrect to say they've been decimated either (by the literal definition of the word). AQ and ISIS also.. don't really get along. They have similar goals and are both Sunni, but they clash on methodology.

If it's true that "AQ flags are popping up", then it's in ISIS' wake, not in cooperation.

My understanding is that the command structure behind these guys comes from the Baathist officers whom Paul Bremer booted out of the old Iraqi Guard.

Nemosomen:"Discounts?" Are you referring to discounts like those that Russia used to give Ukraine? Futures buyers do not have access to those "discounts," which are really just disguised foreign aid. Any other "discount" between two private entities would just be equivalent to a future that was traded off-exchange.

Please correct me if I'm misinterpreting what you mean by discount, as I legitimately would like to know.

I sell you something for $5 that I think is actually going to come in at $4. turns out, it only actually cost me $3. I'm not giving you that $1 back. i say fark you, i got $2 off you.

no one is ever going to short it. i will sandbag so i make sure i get mine, and anything extra is gravy.

Reverend Monkeypants:.How long do y'all think US citizens can enjoy gas prices that are (generally) 50% lower than the rest of the world? How many of them even understand how they get away with that?

For as long as taxes on gasoline in the US remain low. I'm not sure how many understand it, but the reason is low taxes. (An addition factor is the existence of versitile domestic refineries, which can refine the entire gamut from light sweet to sour heavy)

"We're not going to allow ourselves to be dragged back into a situation in which, while we're there we're keeping a lid on things, and after enormous sacrifices by us, after we're not there, people start acting in ways that are not conducive to the long-term stability and prosperity of the country," Obama said from the South Lawn of the White House. "

The economy absorbs indirect costs more effectively over the other commodities I purchase. Yes, other costs go up, but when gas goes from $3.75 a gallon to $6.50 a gallon (just to give some numbers), my transportation costs don't go up by that much, nor do my other costs spike as high.

Besides which, if I drove a gas-using vehicle, I'd still be paying extra for the gas as well as additional costs as other goods go up in price. So I'm still ahead of the game.

Maybe this will finally be the big chance for the prices in the rest of the economy to catch the price of education? ;-)

My Prius C will still suit me just fine. If gas prices double I will go from spending $30 a month to $60. A few beers to not be had.