2017 College Basketball Futures Offering Value (Part 4)

2017 College Basketball Futures Offering Value (Part 4)

For the past three weeks, I have utilized our bracket simulator predictions to determine which schools were offering value in the futures market. By converting each school’s future price into an implied probability, I have been able to identify several schools with a positive expected value. My initial analysis highlighted Florida (+4000), Louisville (+1700) and Gonzaga (+1000), and those teams continued to offer value last week despite major line movement.

Although the actual tournament bracket won’t be released until Selection Sunday, I’m able to use Joe Lunardi’s weekly Bracketology predictions throughout the regular season and then run 10,000 simulations to determine each team’s probability of winning the national championship. By comparing these probabilities with the implied odds for each team to win the national championship, I’m able to determine which futures are the smartest bets.

The table below compares the implied probabilities at 5Dimes and The Greek with the probabilities from our bracket simulator. Any values of above “1” indicate positive expected returns. This only represents two offshore sportsbooks, and we always encourage bettors to shop for the best line before placing a wager.

Team

Probability

5Dimes

5Dimes Implied

5Dimes Value

Greek

Greek Implied

Greek Value

Wichita State

2.2%

10000

0.99%

2.222

15000

0.66%

3.322

Saint Marys CA

1.4%

15000

0.66%

2.114

12500

0.79%

1.764

Gonzaga

22.6%

625

13.79%

1.6385

800

11.11%

2.034

Oklahoma State

0.8%

20000

0.50%

1.608

25000

0.40%

2.008

Baylor

3.8%

4000

2.44%

1.558

3000

3.23%

1.178

West Virginia

5.3%

2800

3.45%

1.537

2000

4.76%

1.113

Florida

5.1%

2500

3.85%

1.326

2500

3.85%

1.326

South Carolina

0.4%

30000

0.33%

1.204

20000

0.50%

0.804

Virginia

3.5%

3300

2.94%

1.19

3000

3.23%

1.085

Kentucky

8.0%

1200

7.69%

1.04

800

11.11%

0.72

Butler

1.4%

6600

1.49%

0.938

5000

1.96%

0.714

Louisville

6.0%

1400

6.67%

0.9

1200

7.69%

0.78

Purdue

2.5%

3000

3.23%

0.775

3000

3.23%

0.775

North Carolina

10.3%

650

13.33%

0.7725

800

11.11%

0.927

Villanova

7.0%

1000

9.09%

0.77

800

11.11%

0.63

Creighton

0.7%

10000

0.99%

0.707

10000

0.99%

0.707

Cincinnati

0.9%

7500

1.32%

0.684

5000

1.96%

0.459

Florida State

2.1%

3000

3.23%

0.651

3000

3.23%

0.651

SMU

1.2%

4500

2.17%

0.552

8500

1.16%

1.032

Michigan

0.2%

25000

0.40%

0.502

12500

0.79%

0.252

Kansas

4.9%

900

10.00%

0.49

800

11.11%

0.441

Iowa State

0.5%

8500

1.16%

0.43

12500

0.79%

0.63

Notre Dame

0.5%

8000

1.23%

0.405

5000

1.96%

0.255

Oregon

2.7%

1200

7.69%

0.351

1200

7.69%

0.351

Miami Florida

0.3%

10000

0.99%

0.303

25000

0.40%

0.753

Dayton

0.1%

30000

0.33%

0.301

20000

0.50%

0.201

Northwestern

0.1%

25000

0.40%

0.251

N/A

N/A

N/A

Wisconsin

0.7%

3300

2.94%

0.238

3000

3.23%

0.217

Duke

2.1%

1000

9.09%

0.231

800

11.11%

0.189

Arizona

1.1%

1500

6.25%

0.176

1000

9.09%

0.121

UCLA

1.6%

650

13.33%

0.12

800

11.11%

0.144

Minnesota

0.1%

10000

0.99%

0.101

50000

0.20%

0.501

Maryland

0.1%

5000

1.96%

0.051

3500

2.78%

0.036

Based on the latest simulations, there are ten schools offering value at 5Dimes and nine schools offering value at The Greek. The best prices have been identified with asterisks.

5Dimes Values

Wichita State (+10,000)

Saint Mary’s CA (+15,000)*

Gonzaga (+625)

Oklahoma State (+20,000)

Baylor (+4,000)*

West Virginia (+2,800)*

Florida (+2,500)

South Carolina (+30,000)*

Virginia (+3,300)*

Kentucky (+1,200)*

Greek Values

Wichita State (+15,000)*

Gonzaga (+800)*

Oklahoma State (+25,000)*

Saint Mary’s CA (+12,500)

Florida (+2,500)

Baylor (+3,000)

West Virginia (+2,000)

Virginia (+3,000)

SMU (+8,500)

It’s interesting to note that South Carolina and Kentucky are both offering value at 5Dimes, but not at The Greek. That’s because South Carolina is listed at +30,000 at 5Dimes and only +20,000 at The Greek. Based on our simulations, they should be priced at 25,000. Conversely, Kentucky is listed at +1200 at 5Dimes and only +800 at The Greek. Based on our simulations, they should be priced at +1150.

Teams like Gonzaga, Baylor, West Virginia, Florida, Virginia, and Wichita State continue to be undervalued according to our simulations, but there are some new teams emerging in our latest simulation. Last week our bracket simulator gave Saint Mary’s (CA) a 0.6% probability of winning the national championship, but that number has climbed to 1.4% following impressive wins over Pepperdine and Santa Clara. At 150/1, the Gaels (26-3 overall, 16-2 in WCC) are an intriguing long-shot candidate.

Another riser has been Oklahoma State, as the Cowboys have seen their probability of winning the national championship improve from 0.3% to 0.8% in the past week. There’s an outside chance that Oklahoma State (20-9, 9-7 in Big 12) doesn’t earn a berth in the tournament, but they’re another potential Cinderella team at 250/1.

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