Since OPEC announced the production cut deal at the end of November, industry analysts have been warning that rising production from producers outside the deal—U.S. shale in particular—is effectively capping the oil price gains from that agreement.

Analysts expect BHP to argue that a demerged petroleum business would need to fund offshore growth projects by raising debt. It may also contend that a stand-alone division won’t have the same ability to defer production until oil prices improve.