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Almost two-thirds of Toronto residents think Rob Ford should resign, according to a poll taken in the hours after the mayor announced he is taking a leave of absence to seek help for alcohol abuse.

The percentage of people who would vote for him in the upcoming municipal election dropped to 22 per cent in a five-way race from 27 per cent, according to the Forum Research poll conducted Thursday evening.

The poll has Ford dropping to third place and candidate John Tory moving up to second place, behind frontrunner Olivia Chow.

It also found that even among voters who support Ford, 15 per cent think he should resign.

The poll includes responses from 888 Torontonians reached by telephone. Its results are considered accurate within 3 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

“This is the new low for him,” said Forum president Lorne Bozinoff. “At this point, he’s pretty much insulted everybody in the city – women obviously, so there’s half the population right there. It looks like he’s been making racial slurs based on the reports this morning.”

Previous scandals eroded Ford’s s broader base of support, but the developments are now starting to affect Ford Nation, a voting block identified by pollsters that has supported him through the numerous scandals Bozinoff says.

The poll found that 25 per cent of voters said they would vote for Ford in the municipal election, down from 29 per cent two weeks ago and close to 40 per cent in recent months. Close to two-thirds, 63 per cent, think the mayor should resign, and 52 per cent said they would never vote for him.

“Generally he’s been in second place and this is going to put him in third place,” said Bozinoff.

He said the mayor still enjoys strong support in his home base of Etobicoke and in Scarborough, where he has ardently supported a subway extension.

Ford’s approval rating also took a hit with 38 per cent of respondents saying they approve of the job he is doing as mayor, down from 46 per cent two weeks previous.

Ford has conducted media blitzes in the past when his approval rating has taken a hit or scandals have surfaced. Shortly after news broke of the first video that featured Ford appearing to smoke crack cocaine, he appeared at numerous events around the city. When the crack scandal became international after he admitted using the drug, Ford did sit-down interviews in which he professed he had learned his lesson.

“His numbers are very, very sensitive to what goes on and what he’s doing,” said Bozinoff. “Now he’s out of action. He’s going to be out of mind and he went away.”

The mayor’s brother and campaign manager, Councillor Doug Ford, told the Star that Ford was checking into “one of the best facilities in North America” for treatment but would not provide specifics. The mayor left town without speaking publicly about the scandal and his lawyer later told the Star he left on a private plane from Buttonville Airport to Chicago.

The shearing off of Ford Nation supporters has a definite effect on the rest of the race as well. Most of them are going to candidate John Tory, says Bozinoff.

“The issue is, what happens to Ford Nation without Rob Ford? Do they stay home and sit on their hands or do they vote for somebody else?” said Bozinoff. “They don’t have a huge choice. Olivia Chow is sort of cast as the enemy: Downtown, big-spending perception, long-time politician.”

The poll shows that Tory has leapt ahead of Ford in the five-way race. Chow would win with one-third of the vote, at around 33 per cent, while Tory would notch 27 per cent and Ford would take 22 per cent. Stintz trails with 6 per cent, followed closely by David Soknacki at 5 per cent.

“John Tory has potential. He’s already starting to realize that potential with Rob Ford faltering. He has to be very, very careful,” said Bozinoff. “He has made comments about Rob Ford but he doesn't want to attack the Ford Nation.”

In a four-way race without Ford, the gap between Chow and Tory becomes even smaller, with support for Tory jumping to 32 per cent and Chow rising only slightly to 34 per cent.

The poll shows near-unanimous support for the mayor’s decision to seek help for substance abuse problems, though Bozinoff is not optimistic about his eventual recovery lifting his numbers back to their original strength.

“The first time you do it and you say you’re sorry, people believe it. But now it’s gone on too long. He's kind of missed the opportunity,” said Bozinoff.

“He should have done this six months ago, when the problem was first identified instead of lying to people and saying I don't have a problem and continually lying.”

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