Nifty have cracked the trend line as proposed earlier in http://learnthetrick.blogspot.com/2007/02/nifty-head-shoulder.htmlIf we consider that Nifty will react as per the short term impulse then the possible levels which can be worked out as :High : 4245Low : 2595Rise = High - Low = 1650, Using Fibonacci ratios 0.38, 0.5, 0.618 you can have1650 x 0.38 = 627 (L1)1650 x 0.50 = 825 (L2)1650 x 0.618 = 1019.7 (L3)So now the levels are High - L1, High - L2, High - L3Level 1 : 4245 - 627 = 3618Level 2 : 4245 - 825 = 3420Level 3 : 4245 - 1019.7 = 3225.3

Checking Charts:

Other option is to look for the even longer term trend line if it exist. Now below is the 3 year Nifty plotted on the log scale (For such a longer period I always prefer log scale it makes lot of sense).Here there seems to be good channel forming.Now this long term chart clearly states that if Nifty do not breach the bottom trend-line the Long term bullish out look stays intact. Hence 3200~3250 level becomes very critical.

On request of one of my friend I have analyzed this chart. Here first thing that comes to mind is that the up trend is clear as there is no breach of up-trendline and the stock is making higher bottoms.

next thing that comes is the days with more than avg volume have been white candles (ie there was buying on those days).

There is also seen that there is older resistance (~700) which was broken with a greater volume. Now that resistance line have become support and this is another good sign of bullish phase.

But there is only one concern here that the last volume pick came at the black candle while it took support at 710 (708.1 to be accurate) level. This makes 705~710 level a critical support.

The signs here do not really look bullish. There could be probable Head and shoulder formation in the making. The clear Bearish call can be given only on break of the Neckline trendline at @3950.While on the On Balance Volume there is clear dent seen. Which I consider as caution for bulls.

While the mid term trendline suggest that the 4000 Level is critical.In most probable case 4025 would act as a good support.Hence the bearish outlook can be

For a change Bihar stock. Here its a good case of breakout with too much of volumes. Hence you can see the abrupt rise in the On Balance Volume. Also it is good case of resistance becoming support which is again a very bullish sign. StopLoss of 9.8 to be maintained.

A penny stock with buying interest hence has high risk high return profile.

As per my previous POST TISCO has taken support nr 425 now there is possibility that TISCO might reach 520 IF it do not break 425.Also if there is this double bottom possibility at 425.One can enter TISCO with SL of 424.

South East Asia Marine Engineering & Construction Ltd. had given a breakout on 14th Feb. while I am late to identify it the target from this chart can be given as 235 and its already222. This post hence becomes more of an academics than a trading call.

This is one stock which I put in high risk high return hence one is not advised to put more than 10% of their portfolio value in it. As can be clearly seen Disa India has taken support at @1240 level and is likely to move upto 1500.

I thought of making one study. Where in a hypothetical investor performs the trade using any decision making tool (SYSTEM).

Here I have defined few thingsStrike rate : number of profitable decision to total number of decision.Stop Loss : Avg % of investment lost while decision goes wrong (Assumed 5%)Avg Profit : Avg % of profit earned while decision goes right. (Assumed 10%)

I have tried few cases where initial investment is 10000/- strike rate is 1 of 4, 1 of 3, 1 of 2, 2 of 3 and 3 of 4 and last case is that the investor learns few tricks and then he matures so that his strike rate improves.

Here is the Ashok Leyland chart it is clear that knocking off @50 level is tough. Hence below 50Ashok Leyland is bearish. While above 50 Ashok Leyland is bullish. I would buy this stock only if it close above 51. (Just in case my lines are not straight . . !)

Suzlon have cracked the support of @1200 with handsome volumethe reactive rise has also only brought it to the same resistancelevel of (-)1200 level. It is clear indication that this stock is in fora fall of @120 Rs Minimum.