2017-01-23

Superbowl LI Projection, Championship Sunday

New England over Atlanta

Both favorites won on Sunday, neither of whom I was rooting for, and we've got a New England vs Atlanta Superbowl matchup. I've got New England as nearly 70% likely to win. FiveThirtyEight gives them 61%, and there's really no way to say which of us is more right. I guess if New England wins I'm more likely to be more right, and vice versa. The NFC is the designated home team this year, and will get their choice of jersey. The team in white has won 11 of the last 12 Superbowls, so I'd bet on them picking that for good luck, but I don't think that will be the difference maker.

So who am I rooting for?

New England at Atlanta:
I'm not really attached to either team, so I'll be rooting for myself to win the Collector's Crack contest. That will take a New England victory, and a total score of 50 points or less. I heard Vegas has the over/under at 59, so I might wind up the only one at my Superbowl party on the edge of my seat watching a 36-14 game late in the 4th quarter.

TEAM

Record

Strength

Div

Plyff

WC

Qtr

Semi

Champ

NE

14-2

0.845

++

++

++

++

++

69.96

ATL

11-5

0.701

++

++

++

++

++

30.04

DAL

13-3

0.722

++

++

++

-

-

-

KC

12-4

0.661

++

++

++

-

-

-

PIT

11-5

0.645

++

++

++

++

-

-

SEA

10-5-1

0.640

++

++

++

-

-

-

ARI

7-8-1

0.606

-

-

-

-

-

-

DEN

9-7

0.585

-

-

-

-

-

-

GB

10-6

0.580

++

++

++

++

-

-

PHI

7-9

0.577

-

-

-

-

-

-

NYG

11-5

0.565

-

++

-

-

-

-

OAK

12-4

0.558

-

++

-

-

-

-

BAL

8-8

0.549

-

-

-

-

-

-

MIN

8-8

0.547

-

-

-

-

-

-

BUF

7-9

0.540

-

-

-

-

-

-

IND

8-8

0.535

-

-

-

-

-

-

WAS

8-7-1

0.525

-

-

-

-

-

-

NO

7-9

0.524

-

-

-

-

-

-

CIN

6-9-1

0.523

-

-

-

-

-

-

TEN

9-7

0.506

-

-

-

-

-

-

SD

5-11

0.477

-

-

-

-

-

-

DET

9-7

0.475

-

++

-

-

-

-

TB

9-7

0.469

-

-

-

-

-

-

MIA

10-6

0.466

-

++

-

-

-

-

CAR

6-10

0.436

-

-

-

-

-

-

HOU

9-7

0.381

++

++

++

-

-

-

JAC

3-13

0.335

-

-

-

-

-

-

CHI

3-13

0.255

-

-

-

-

-

-

NYJ

5-11

0.234

-

-

-

-

-

-

SF

2-14

0.211

-

-

-

-

-

-

CLE

1-15

0.167

-

-

-

-

-

-

LA

4-12

0.156

-

-

-

-

-

-

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: New England (Week 3, Thursday)
First to 20% chance of Superbowl win: New England (Week 8, Sunday)
First to 40% chance of Superbowl win: New England (Week 16, Saturday)

First to 45% chance of Superbowl win: New England (Week 17, Final)

First to 50% chance of Superbowl win: New England (Divisional Saturday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 3, Thursday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Minnesota (Week 4, Final)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 8, Sunday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: Dallas (Week 12, Thursday)
First to 99.999% chance of Playoffs: Dallas (Week 13, Thursday)
First to clinch Playoffs: Dallas (Week 13, Sunday)
First to clinch a First Round Bye: New England (Week 15, Sunday)
First to clinch homefield advantage throughout the playoffs: Dallas (Week 16, Saturday)

First team eliminated from winning a division: Cleveland, San Francisco (Week 11, Sunday)
First team eliminated from the playoffs: Cleveland (Week 11, Sunday)