Monday, 14 July 2014

Breezy Point Think Tank

Economic forecasting is the perfect mix of art and science: you
may blame either component if you don’t get it right! Not unlike horse racing you
need to know the form and conditions, but you must also be able to sniff the
wind, and be on speaking terms with lady luck.

Some
calls are beyond obvious: when shacks in Ireland were selling for a half
million Euros it was apparent that one hell of a bubble was about to burst.

Likewise
back in 2007 when Alan Greenspan, Chairman of the Federal Reserve, stated that
financial markets would self-regulate, it was time to head for the hills.

The
most glaring current red flag is the number of over-capitalized start-ups that
still haven’t figured how to turn a profit. In other words, don’t bet Auntie
Eileen’s jewelry on the next Facebook.

So
how is the American economy really doing? You’ll find an expert to confirm any
opinion you might possibly hazard.Me?I stick to two
bellwethers - one without cost, the other the price of a round of Coors Light.

The
freebie merely requires a walk up the East Side of Broadway (once known as the
plebian “shilling side,”) from Canal to Houston. In the aftermath of the 2008
Financial Debacle you could walk in a straight line up that once congested commercial
boulevard marveling at the sight of the empty flagstones ahead of you.

Around 2010 shopaholics returned
only to stare longingly in store windows. In the last year, however, I’m forced
to swear like a trooper to clear the way while zigzagging around laden down
shoppers dazed as two-bit junkies after a fix.

This leads me to believe that happy
days are ahead for the economy unless the bankers and gangsters wreck the joint
again.

However, before certifying imminent
boom times it would behoove one to journey out to Breezy Point on the Irish Riviera.
My brother Jimmy holds court there in the Blarney Castle – a renowned economic
think tank that doubles as a watering hole.

The assembled fellows of this vaunted
institute have little time for the Economist or Wall Street Journal – they tend
to be more News and Post aficionados. Yet it was on this sacred ground in 2007 the
tragic news was revealed to me that hard times would soon be upon us.

You
see Jimmy is a waterproofer – one of that doughty band who keeps the buildings
of this town from collapsing on our noggins; and when Mr. Trump and other real
estate titans are not employing these gentlemen, then things are going to hell
in the proverbial breadbasket. Union members, I was informed, had been told to
expect the worst and, even more ominous, official applications for building
maintenance and repairs were at an all time low.

The
current forecast from the Blarney is mixed. Things look good in the short term,
the union is hiring - but there are grave concerns about future climatic
conditions, and for good measure don’t hold your breath for a Mets or Jets
renaissance. However, Jimmy and his assembled think tank brethren stand at the
ready to deliver forecasts for a mere round of Coors Lights!

Perhaps
I can explain one puzzling statistic that is stumping the experts – the number
of unemployed abandoning the workforce. Experts be damned! Do you know any
regular person with enough stashed away to actually quit working?

What’s happening is that since most
jobs being created are in the lower paid service and health care industries many
unemployed have begun their own small businesses. These range all the way from
financial consulting to grandparents becoming daycare givers and pocketing some
of the money saved.

Many
people, however, are taking social security at 62 rather than waiting for full
payment at 66. This will inevitably cause immense social and financial problems
for the country down the line. But as they say out in Breezy, “What are you
gonna do?”

Oh
well, it’s a nice day for a stroll up the Shilling Side of Broadway, or maybe
I’ll head out to the Blarney, shell out for a round of Coors Lights and find
out what’s really going on in this country.

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