American Way: Victory for gay marriage? It depends who you ask

The core Republican base of Christian conservatives are not a loose
'coalition', but a 'movement' whose beliefs cannot be easily put aside - no
matter what the Supreme Court decides on gay marriage, writes Peter Foster.

Protestors rally against the Defense of Marriage Act in front of the U.S. Supreme Court in WashingtonPhoto: REUTERS

Not so long ago, it would have been considered a downright provocation: a picture of two stubbly men locked in a tender kiss on the front cover of Time magazine and a sister cover showing two women, their lips similarly locked.

"Gay Marriage Already Won," proclaimed the headline. "The Supreme Court hasn't made up its mind – but America has."

Really? The truth of that statement depends on which part of America you ask. Nationally there is no doubt that attitudes have shifted radically in the last decade, with polls showing support for same-sex marriage consistently over 50 per cent, and latterly nudging 60 per cent.

But in America's sharply divided polity, where opinion is not evenly or geographically spread but concentrated in swathes of deep red (Republican) and blue (Democrat) states, those overall national numbers obscure the fact that gay marriage remains a subject of deep national division.

Despite the sea change in those national numbers, and the direction of travel they suggest, among Republicans the argument is very far from over.

The latest Quinnipiac University poll shows that only 23 per cent of registered Republican voters support same-sex marriage.

And while it is true that younger Protestants are softening on gay marriage, for white evangelical Christians – a core voting constituent in Republican primaries that set the tone of the party to a national audience – the needle hasn't moved.

According to a 2013 Pew survey, 83 per cent of white evangelicals say gay marriage would violate their religious beliefs - the same number as a decade ago.

The Republican establishment - the "operative classes" and consultants vilified so spectacularly by Sarah Palin at this year's CPAC meeting for grassroots conservatives - have made clear how they intend to deal with this disconnect between the party and the nation: sweep it under the carpet.

The section on gay marriage in the 2012 election defeat "autopsy" is quite explicit, claiming gay rights as a "gateway issue" that stops many young people, women and college-educated types from even considering voting Republican and then simply urging the grassroots to "drop it".

"For the GOP [Republicans] to appeal to younger voters, we do not have to agree on every issue, but we do need to make sure young people do not see the Party as totally intolerant of alternative points of view," the authors wrote, warning that unless the party was "welcoming and inclusive", voters would "continue to tune us out".

Like a lot of Republican thinking about how to broaden a party's appeal, that sounds very much like wishful thinking.

As one senior (and privately despairing) Republican strategist observed to me last week, unlike the Democrats the Republican party is not a loose "coalition" but a "movement", where ideological rigidity and core belief is part of its DNA. Such beliefs cannot simply be put to one side.

As the consultant observed, the conundrum of how to "build a modern, broad-based party on the votes of old, white religious people" is a circle which Republicans are not close to squaring.

And whichever way the Supreme Court swings when it hands down its ruling in June, it is difficult to see how the gay marriage issue helps.

A broad ruling making same-sex marriage a constitutional right across America would instantly inflame the conservative and Christian right and deepen those same divisions - just as Roe v Wade has done on the abortion issue. For that very reason, the court appears unlikely to "go big" and rule that way.

But equally, a narrow ruling that leaves individual states to decide whether or not to allow gay marriage has much the same practical effect – handing "victory" to conservatives and spurring more of the kind of hardline, state-level legislation against gay marriage that is already in place.

In both cases America's ideological fissures are only widened. And as the history of US elections since 1992 indicates – the GOP has lost five of the last six popular votes - the Republican party is plainly on the wrong side of that divide when it comes to winning elections.

The same Christian conservative base that George W Bush razzed up to win his two terms is now the hurdle that keeps the party out of power; and, in the short term, at least, the gay marriage issue is likely only to raise that barrier higher.

In the long term, to regain the White House, something will have to give - but it is naive to expect that will happen without a fight.

The eventual winner of the battle for gay marriage may not be in doubt, but in the Republican Party, there is at least a decade of combat yet to come.