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Thursday, May 4, 2017

Planet Nine: the score card

Last year, just after Konstantin and I announced our hypothesis that a
distant massive planet in an eccentric orbit was corralling distant
Kuiper belt objects into peculiar orbits, I wrote a post explaining why
it might all be wrong. Not that it I thought was all wrong – I was and
still am quite convinced that Planet Nine is out there waiting to be
found – but it’s always good to understand how a hypothesis might be
wrong, particularly when it’s one of your own.

The biggest worry with the original evidence for Planet Nine was that we
might have stared at our own data for so long that patterns were
appearing out of the randomness. This sort of pattern finding is what
leads to people discovering faces on Mars or deities in burnt toast or,
sometimes, giant planets in the void of space. As you remember, the
evidence for the existence of Planet Nine was that the six most distant
know objects in the Kuiper belt were all swept off in one direction and
also systematically tilted in the same direction (see the top of this
page!), contrary to how they should be. We calculated a probability that
such an alignment should occur due to chance, and we came up with
something like one-in-a-million. This calculation is one place our
hypothesis could go wrong. Though I think we did this calculation in a
sensible way, these sorts of after-the-fact calculations should always
be looked at a little suspiciously. A much better approach is to use
your hypothesis to predict what will happen in new data. We did exactly
this when we predicted the presence of objects with orbits perpendicular
to the solar system and then realized these objects indeed existed. For
Konstantin and I this prediction was what changed Planet Nine from
being a cute idea to a solid and viable hypothesis. Even that successful
prediction, however, was less central to the main observation of an
aligned set of distant objects. What I really wanted to see was whether
or not future discoveries would live up to our specific predictions.

It’s been a year now. How has the hypothesis fared?

First, let’s review the specific predictions.

(1) Newly discovered distant Kuiper belt objects (specifically those
with semimajor axis beyond 230 AU, for the sticklers out there) will
continue to have orbits the sweep off in the opposite direction of the
hypothesized orbit of Planet Nine

(2) These objects will be systematically tilted the same way as the original 6 objects.

Our second paper, a few months later, made a third prediction:

(3) In addition to all of the distant objects swept in the opposite
direction, there should be a small population of distant objects with
orbits in the same direction as Planet Nine. No such objects were known
but they must also exist in the Planet Nine hypothesis is true.

Finally, in a talk at a scientific conference in October, after some
even more detailed computer simulations, we made one last prediction, or
perhaps we should call it a modification of the second prediction:

(4) Newly discovered objects will have orbital planes that are, on
average, tilted in the same direction, but there will be a systematic
spread in that tilt.

This last prediction is difficult to explain but easy to show. Every
object orbiting the sun has an orbital north pole. Objects which are
tilted exactly the same will all have the same north pole. We can
represent the tilt of the orbit of an object by the position of its
north pole on a top-down view of its latitude and longitude. In this
plot, the degree of the tilt of the orbit of the object is the distance
from the center of the plot, which the direct of the tilt of the orbit
of the object is the direction from center to the point. Any objects in
the exact orbit plane of the solar system will have a pole latitude of
90 degrees, and will plot right in the center of the plot. Our latest
round of computer simulations showed us to expect a cluster of pole
positions all tilted off in one direction, but with a larger spread than
we had anticipated in prediction (2). The comparison of the computer
simulations of the expected pole positions with the real pole positions
of the six distant objects was good, but that’s not surprising, as we
designed the computer simulations to match the known objects. The
question will be: where do future discoveries lie? Note that it is
pretty easy for any one object to satisfy this prediction, as the
predicted pole positions cover a pretty wide swatch of the sky, but in
general they cluster more strongly off in one direction.

Poles of distant
Kuiper belt objects. The original six objects all had poles tilted
approximately in the same direction, as can be seen by the red points.
The small black dots show the poles found in computer simulations. While
they concentrate near where the red dots are, they cover a much wider
range of space.

Since then we’ve been waiting to see what might be discovered. It’s slow
going. From 2000 until 2013 only six distant objects had been found.
Happily, astronomers have been busy, and 4 new distant objects have been
announced just in the past nine months. Where are they? Let’s take a
look.

The most interesting set of objects came from Scott Sheppard and Chad
Trujillo – the same group that realized early on that something fishy
was going on in the outer solar system and that inspired us to try to
figure it out. Sheppard and Trujillo found 3 distant objects. Two of
them fit right into the pattern of the previous 6 objects. They are both
swept off in the correct direction, and their orbital poles fit within
the range of our computer simulations (again, though, this is a large
range to fit into. Sorry. Blame Planet Nine). The third new distant
object, though, is my favorite. It is swept into an orbit exactly
opposite of all of the rest. This object was precisely the type
predicted for the new population we had predicted, and it was in exactly
the right spot. How exciting was it to see this newly predicted
population? Let’s just say I did a little dance in my office when I saw
the orbit.

The orbits of the
most distant Kuiper belt objects. The red objects are the original six,
the green are the Sheppard & Trujillo discoveries, while the blue
is the OSSOS discovery.

Most recently, the OSSOS team announced the discovery of a single
distant object. If you look where its orbit lies and then you look at
its pole, you will not be surprised to learn that the announcement of
this discovery again had me doing a little dance in my office. Four for
four! But then you might also be surprised that the astronomers making
the announcement claimed that it showed that there was probably no
Planet Nine, partially based on the fact that the pole is not tilted
enough. What? Ah, it’s because they’re looking at the rather simple
prediction (2) and not taking into account the refined understanding
that led to prediction (4). That’s OK. The discussion of prediction (4)
took place at a scientific conference, and the paper describing it,
though submitted for publication, has not yet come out. It’s always
hard for scientific authors to know how to acknowledge these sorts of
things, and so, though the authors knew about the prediction, they
hadn’t had the opportunity to read a detailed paper describing it, so
they chose to not mention it. We’ll still count it.

We now have a score card! Originally there were six objects. Now there
are ten. That’s a 66% increase, which is good work, mostly thanks to
Sheppard & Trujillo’s efforts. And every single discovery fits a
true prediction perfectly. By “true prediction” I mean an authentic
prediction about something not yet seen, rather than an after-the-fact
explanation. Those are hard. Those are the things that we give serious
credence to, as a fun idea turns into a compelling hypothesis turns into
a rigorous theory.

Are we there yet? No. I would put us about halfway between compelling
hypothesis and rigorous theory. There are still a few details about
Planet Nine and its effect on the outer solar system that we can’t yet
explain. But we’re close. When (or, to be fair, I should say “if”) those
details are nailed down, I will be happy to put Planet Nine into the
category of rigorous theory. Of course, we might get lucky and actually
find it first. Then it will simply be confirmed fact.

The season for hunting Planet Nine is coming upon us soon (we predict
that Planet Nine will most likely be discovered near the constellation
Taurus, which starts to rise in the fall). With all of these new
discoveries and, significantly, with our improved understanding of the
way in which Planet Nine gravitationally effects the objects of the
outer solar system, it’s time to update our predicted positions for all
of those searching for Planet Nine. The next two posts will be a bit
technical, but will give the most detailed information for anyone out
there trying hard to find Planet Nine. Good luck, and, um, tell me if
you find it.

94 comments:

Just curious, the day you discover it in the Subaru images, what will be your next steps other than a few dance moves? Get a Hubble shot and gather more info before making public? Can't wait, we need this planet found sooner than later. The cultural impact it will have, thinking about it gives me goose bumps.

What about starting the push for a NASA (or private) probe mission? I imagine it would be magnificent to be the first discoverer of a large object in the outer solar system to be alive at the time the discovery is flown-past. I should think the opportunity to examine a 10 earth-mass body at close quarters would garner plenty of support from the exoplanet community, given we're finding objects of that size class in other systems but have rather limited remote-sensing options. Great opportunity for trialing new propulsion technologies, as well.

If Planet Nine had a mass of 10 M_earth and a semimajor axis of 600 AU the Sun's orbit about the Solar System's barycenter due to Planet Nine would be a few times larger than that due to Jupiter. Would this have any interesting effects?

It would only look like that from outside the Solar System. Planet 9 would cause a gravitational acceleration for every object in the Solar System, but the differences between those accelerations in direction and value would be tiny. Most likely, they would only be noticable if objects got anywhere near Planet 9.

If the existence of Planet 9 is true, would the models predicting the likelihood of a significant asteroid impact with Earth need to be adjusted or the search area and inclination of potentially hazardous objects?

Regular matter reacts to all kinds of forces, which makes it able to clump together and form stars and planets. Dark matter only reacts to gravity and is spread out very thinly in space. So there won't be any dark matter planets.

"The season for hunting for Planet Nine is coming upon us soon."If P9 is near Taurus, and Taurus is approach the sun, it seems like the season for hunting is soon over, unless "Fall" is soon by astronomical standards!

"If the existence of Planet 9 is true, would the models predicting the likelihood of a significant asteroid impact with Earth need to be adjusted or the search area and inclination of potentially hazardous objects?"

Probably wouldn't make much difference. Planet Nine is *very* far out there (waaay beyond Pluto), and most of the asteroids at risk of hitting Earth are much closer in.

In the beginning you calculated a very small probability of the first six KBOs having this anomality by chance instead of it being caused by P9. By how much has this probability changed considering the newly found objects?

Pluto is a planet (a dwarf planet) and is planet number 9. Planet X aka The 10th Planet aka Nibiru aka Wormwood aka The Red Karachi aka ERIS is real and I see it with my telescope every morning and night. The fact that this object wasn't discovered until 2005 by Mike Brown and put into the laps of NASA whom immediately acting like pros on the entire subject tells me EVERYTHING I need to know. This planet was discussed by the ancient Egyptians, Sumerians, Greeks, Romans, Theologians, Hobie, Aztecs, Incas, Mayans and the Bible. This was before telescopes and "modern science." How much more proof do you need? They were all in harmony about it's 3600 year rotation around our sun and that is brought nothing but doom. If you count back by intervals of 3600 years you find the great flood, the disappearance of the Incas, the Mayans and the Egyptians. I'm sure if you roll back far enough you will find it was responsible for the freezing of Antarctica and the disappearance of the dinosaurs. The bible has never been wrong and refers to Eris as "The Destroyer." Chem Trails are consistently placed in the east during the morning hours and in the west during the evening hours. The Department of Defense is hiding something in the sky and you don't have to be a wizard to figure out what it is. You can sit here and debate about it's existence all you want but I think it wise to place your money on the ancient texts. The Sumerians were NOT the cavemen we were lead to believe they were. They knew about Saturn's' rings, the moons of Jupiter, Earth being the 3rd planet from the sun and they knew about the existence of a 10th planet thousands of years before the telescope. That is all the proof I need. We need to protect ourselves, our families and one another. If you believe 9-11 was an inside job, the JFK assassination was an inside job or that the moon landing video was a hoax then you have NO reason to believe our government and the shit they are spoon feeding us. "We the Sheeple" can only depend on ourselves and need to start making the necessary arrangements to ensure our existence on this planet. Switch yourself out of auto-pilot, listen to the voice of reason, look up in the sky passed the chem trails and realize this is real. Nobody is going to save you, but you.

What you call planet 9, was called Nibiru/Marduk by ancient civilizations as far back as the Summerian culture. Researcher Zechariah Stichin has written extensively about this planet, gleaning his information from a very scholarly translating of ancient texts, tablets and engravings. If you were to check his nonfiction book, The 12th Planet , on page 239 in figure 111, you will see a representation of the orbit of this planet that is exceedingly similar to yours. It seems that nothing is new under the sun. Perhaps his research can help you find your 9th planet. It won't be passing by the sun for another 1300 years

One of the more fun speculations I've engaged in re planet 9 is the possibility that it is actually a binary planet. If the mass ratio were close to that of Pluto-Charon, that would make the smaller of the two planets roughly Earth mass...

If the orbit was substantially elliptical (presumably as a result of whatever event ejected it from the inner solar system), that might create enough geothermal energy for Enceladus/Io-style eruptions, or perhaps a Titan-style atmosphere, or Europa style liquid-water oceans, or perhaps all of the above ;)

This Mike's theory is nice, but If we put on orbit of Planet 9 (10) much more massive object than 10 Neptunes,..everything is much clear and more possible. I made it more than 10 years ago in agreement with what pre-ancient astronomical maps let us know. Simply p9(10) if cca 35Jupiters mass causes, that we see objects far enough beyond Pluto in prooper direction on very elongated eliptical orbits because they have other speeds than real(from our point of wiew, our place in our Solar system) due to opposite motion of Sun,...toward Planet9(10).senmut.beep.comhttp://www.lulu.com/shop/pavel-smutny/ancient-egypt-and-2012/paperback/product-16951885.html Pavel Smutny

If predictions on orbit are correct, would P9 have been visible to ancient Chinese and Arabic astronomers? Not talking Nibiru nonsense, but could there be info "back dated" 2000-3000 years ago? Something that scholars have noticed as a mystery that has not yet been answered...

If P9 had Neptune's size and albedo, and a perihelion at 200 AU as Brown and Batygin predict, then it would have 16th magnitude at perihelion... so no, it wouldn't have been visible without modern telescopes. (Jupiter's size and albedo at 200 AU would still only return about 13th magnitude)

A question I have is about comets. Is there any predictions we can make about tendencies of comets to enter the inner solar system given that the Oort cloud might be lightly disturbed by P9 at perihelion? A small but measurable increase in comets from above or below the solar system's plane? A tendency of comets of Type A versus Type B?

Notice that astronomer Forbes almost found this body in 1880 because his and our estimates of three of the orbital parameters are very close. Also, our therotical period of 4969 years is very closed to its verified period, 4969.3 years.

However, our single estimate of its mass is large, 141 +/- 35 earth masses.

2000 CR 105 is in a very close 3:2 orbital resonance with our Vulcan (probably Planet Nine).

http://www.barry.warmkessel.com/combinedperiods.htmlFOUR INDEPENDENT MEASUREMENTS OF VULCAN’S PERIOD

http://www.barry.warmkessel.com/CR105andVulcan.htmlCR105 - COMET OF VULCANASTRONOMICAL VERIFICATION OF VULCAN'S PERIOD There are at least three other Vulcan related (Scatter Disc) objects which have yet to be analyzed in detail. Specifically, 2001 FP185 and 2002 GB332 appear to be in a similar 3:2 resonance and 1999 DP8 in a 4:1 resonance with Vulcan.

It is plausible that the primordial cloud that gave birth to both Sol and possibly also the Alpha Centauri/Proxima system would have had a similar vorticity throughout the cloud. Thus the Centauri system might establish the vorticity pertaining to Sol and friends. That could constrain a search for Nemesis and also for Planet Nine. Think about it. I'm too old to have any energy.

I still don't understand how Planet 9 can have such an eccentric orbit. Thanks for your reply. You pointed to previous posts in which you say that outward scattering is the most likely explanation of Planet 9's current orbit. But that means Planet 9 has been part of our solar system since the beginning. The outward scattering happened relatively early. Planet 9's orbit has had a few billion years to become more circular. Are tidal effects at 200+ AU too weak to do that? Or 4 billion years isn't enough time at such distances?

2 fun, speculative questions: 1) There should be some orbiting bodies aligned as well as some anti-aligned, you say. How do you know the ones that have been found are anti-aligned? Could they instead be the aligned bodies? Just guessing that the anti-aligned population should be greater, and that's the explanation.

2) What if Planet 9 is a double planet? Two bodies each about 3x Earth's mass? And, they orbit their center of gravity at a large distance, say 0.5 AU apart? That would make them dimmer and harder to detect.

I wondered if there was a maximum size for an orbit. Took a little searching to learn that there isn't any maximum. A planet could be 1000 light years away from the sun and still orbit it, if there weren't any other stars around to interfere. Since there are other stars about, I figure the limit is well under 1 light year. Planets that far out would quickly have their million year orbits disrupted by passing stars.

For scattering, is it useful to think of things in terms of P9 time? So, 4.5 billion (Earth) years is 225,000-450,000 P9 years roughly. So, the earth had 4.5 billion trips around the sun to P9's few hundred thousand. Far less "time" to change the pattern. That's a weird way to look at it, but that's how I've thought of it.

I think the question about anti-alignment is very interesting. I would guess that's where bias could really come into play possibly. Which way are you looking?

Upon further review... I think the anti-aligned population is expected to have longer orbits than the aligned. And, the work that suggests that P9 may be the cause of the solar obliquity wouldn't hold true if it's "backwards"

Looking at the other comments, I can but help think if all the Nibiru / Vulcan fans could point in the right part of the sky, then their enthusiasm might be useful. Otherwise the snarky anti-modern science thing is a bit tiresome. Astronomy is the oldest science - it has refined itself over the millennia. Anything worth keeping has remained. The New really is better than the Old.

This looks interesting:http://www.agenciasinc.es/en/News/New-evidence-in-support-of-the-Planet-Nine-hypothesisEvidence for a possible bimodal distribution of the nodal distances of the extreme trans-Neptunian objects: avoiding a trans-Plutonian planet or just plain bias?C. de la Fuente Marcos R. de la Fuente MarcosMon Not R Astron Soc Lett slx106.https://academic.oup.com/mnrasl/article-abstract/doi/10.1093/mnrasl/slx106/3892345/Evidence-for-a-possible-bimodal-distribution-of"AbstractIt is a well-known fact that the presence of a massive perturber interacting with a population of minor bodies following very eccentric orbits can strongly affect the distribution of their nodal distances. The details of this process have been explored numerically and its outcome confirmed observationally in the case of Jupiter, where a bimodal distribution of nodal distances of comets has been found. Here, we show evidence for a possible bimodal distribution of the nodal distances of the extreme trans-Neptunian objects (ETNOs) in the form of a previously unnoticed correlation between nodal distance and orbital inclination. This proposed correlation is unlikely to be the result of observational bias as data for both large semimajor axis Centaurs and comets fit well into the pattern found for the ETNOs, and all these populations are subjected to similar background perturbations when moving well away from the influence of the giant planets. The correlation found is better understood if these objects tend to avoid a putative planet with semimajor axis in the range 300–400 au."https://arxiv.org/abs/1706.06981

It is plausible that the primordial cloud that gave birth to both Sol and possibly also the Alpha Centauri/Proxima system would have had a similar vorticity throughout the cloud. Thus the Centauri system might establish the vorticity pertaining to Sol and friends. That could constrain a search for Nemesis and also for Planet Nine. Think about it. watch hd movies I'm too old to have any energy.

There are a number of chat rooms that you may only enter if you're 18 decades and above. More about online movies to Through that post, you are going to learn that space isn't neutral on Watch Full Dominion Free - Fmovies.

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I once guessed that the Brown Dwarf orbiting the Sun may be at about a 50 degree angle off the solar system and in the Southern Hemisphere. I also made a guess that the Dwarf is orbiting in the opposite direction than the planets in the solar system.That said, planet nine might be in an orbit just as weird.I would suggest it is probably about the size of Uranus.The probable planet is probably with a hot core like Neptune.If it is following a brown dwarf star that is small and dense then it is likely in an orbit that has broken away from this star at some point in time.The dwarf is likely in the last stages and it is possible it is breaking up. If that is the case a number of planets may be out there beyond the belt.I suggest in that case that Venus is a likely object that was dragged into our Solar System and is a possible object that came from the Dwarf.Another guess is that if this Dwarf exists it is covered with a cold surface and oceans. That would give it an eggshell type surface like the Earth has. It would also make finding it near to impossible to find.Such an object would have a deep atmosphere. Water opens the possibility of volcanos massive enough to blow planet sized objects off its surface.Such an object would explain why we have a large number of objects and moons all with an iron/nickel core. Some of which are quite hot.Venus again comes to mind as a young relative object.What I do not see is these iron core objects originating here.That includes the Earth/moon system.Our part of the galaxy has a good number of dwarf stars in our neighborhood. So one orbiting the sun is possible.

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