Rain could affect tonight's game against the Astros at Nationals Park.

Uh-oh, that's not an encouraging sight: The tarp is covering the infield here at Nationals Park, and the forecast is calling for rain showers throughout the afternoon and evening. Tough to say at this point if it'll be bad enough to cause a delay or even a postponement. If the rain continues to fall as lightly as it has all day, they should be OK to play through it.

If and when they do play, Jordan Zimmermann will take the mound for the Nationals, seeking to become the final member of the starting rotation to earn a win. Not that the right-hander hasn't deserved two W's already, having allowed one earned run in seven innings in both of his two starts to date. Unfortunately, Zimmermann has once again been the victim of terrible run support, as was too often the case last year.

Fellow right-hander Lucas Harrell, who has pitched well so far, gets the start for the Astros. It's obviously still early in the season, but the Nationals have a golden opportunity tonight to create some separation between themselves and the rest of the NL East. The Mets already lost to the Braves this afternoon, which means a win tonight would leave the Nats 2 1/2 games up on everyone else in the division.

Whattya think, guys and gals? With the momentum the Nats have, should they just play through the light rain? Or is prudence the best route and perhaps allow a rainout. Remember, it's the home team's call up until game time.The way we're playing, I think they ought to let Ernie Banks' dictum decide: "Let's play two!"

try that again…Just checked, it's not a (getaway) day game Thursday, even tho Houston is going home afterwards and playing a night game on Friday. So I guess they'd play 2 tomorrow, and the Astros would then have to fly back late and get the Dodgers at home.Ouch.

I didn't say it was a getaway day game tomorrow. I said it was the Astros' getaway day, i.e. the day that they leave town. Given that it's not a day game, they'll be leaving rather late in the day. Even still, I'm sure they'd much rather be leaving late in the day after playing one game, not two.

Feel Wood, sorry for the ambiguity there, and on my second try, too. No, you didn't. I meant that although it is the last game of the road trip for the Astros, it's not scheduled for the afternoon, it's a night game.

Despite our experience to the contrary last year, suspended games are few and far between in major league baseball. Looking at the forecast it's hard to imagine that they won't find a way to sneak this one in. Especially since everyone can sleep in tomorrow if they do.

I don't have tix for tonight but I'm with Meridian as far as erring on the side of caution should the field not appear to be "playable" at game time. (Not that the team needs or would care about my input. :-))

The Astros might prefer not to play two games on their getaway day, but since the game is scheduled as a night game there's an opening for playing a makeup game in the afternoon without changing their travel plans. I don't think the Nats will play games with this one though. They're on a roll and if they can get the game in, they will. I always like rainouts though. Rainchecks are as good as gold for STHs. And standing on the concourse for a rain delay is no fun.

AccuWeather shows drizzle up to 8 pm and then drizzle returning at 10pm. Of course, these hourly forecasts shift around quite a bit. Temperature drops to mid-50s.Sounds like a cold, damp evening where it will be hard to judge when the mist/drizzle starts or stops–Seattle weather.

The Magic Number for a division-leading team is 163 minus the number of wins the first place team has, minus the number of losses the second place team has.N = (163 – W1) – L2The Nats are 9-3, the Phillies, for example, are 5-6.So 163 – 9 = 154154 – 6 = 148

Bozo said… What's the Nats' magic number?Hey, I like that thinking. Perhaps we should have a "magic number" box in the place where there used to be a countdown to the season start! ;-)In any event, the magic number is 148, with 150 left to play.As for playing — I think the Nats are much better suited to playing 2 in one day than any other team — mostly based on: (a) two awesome catchers; and (b) extremely deep bullpenLet's play 2 – tomorrow! (Although I really doubt that will happen).

Bernadina in LF and Espinosa at 2nd. Ramos moved up to 7th.I'm not on the Lombardozzi bandwagon yet but I think you play the hot hand and would be a great night to have Lombo in there against the Right-handed pitcher.

DC Wonk, the way things are tabulated, nobody factors in a month from now why attendance is so low. Tomorrow is another Caps playoff game, today bad weather, Monday was Caps playoff game, Astros in town for 4 games, tax day, etc

I'm as excited as most, but I'm going to wait until the Nationals beat some of the marquee teams before I start my magic number countdown. The only projected contender that the Nationals have beat yet are the Reds, and they're not playing that well.

Mr. Donkey, the Reds were a good team before they arrived in Washington.The strategy of how they neutralized Joey Votto was great.The offense is lagging but the pitching with a few exceptions is nothing short of amazin'

DC Wonk: If the Nats were to win, say 147, wouldn't that mean they would have had to beat everyone in thier divisionYes — but recall that if they beat a team they are contending against, the magic number goes down by two, not one.And, hey, Section 222: thanks!Gonat said… DC Wonk, the way things are tabulated, nobody factors in a month from now why attendance is so low.I know. But complaining about it game-by-game on a Monday night in April — without context — is silly.

Submitted for your consideration:An unlikely duo: Ryan Mattheus and Katy PerryApril 18, 2012 1:52 PM by Dan KolkoComment On This PostMore Dan Kolko |More Sharing ServicesShare When it comes to picking a walk-out song, most major league relievers select something intense, something that will get their adrenaline flowing and pump them up as they jog out to the mound.Longtime Padres closer Trevor Hoffman used AC/DC's "Hells Bells" as his walk-out music. Mariano Rivera is famous for his use of Metallica's "Enter Sandman".Ryan Mattheus goes a different route. A very different route.You might have noticed that when the Nationals call on Mattheus, their 28-year-old reliever, in the late innings of a game, the music that blares through the speakers at Nationals Park is not heavy metal or up-tempo rap. Instead, pop singer Katy Perry's "Firework" is the selection.How did that come to be? Why did Mattheus pick a song that's beloved by pre-teens as his pump-up music?Turns out, it started last year as a joke between Mattheus and then-teammate Cory Van Allen when the two were playing for Double-A Harrisburg."We were just out after a game one time, and we heard the song," Mattheus said. "It was early in the year, so neither of us had a walk-out song yet. I'm like, 'Dude, I'm just gonna do this. Katy Perry.' And it was kind of fun, kind of a joke. And then I got (to the majors), and I had had success using it, so I was like, 'I gotta do it.'"I was kind of nervous about it at first, like 'What's everyone going to think when I run out of the bullpen with "Baby, you're a firework" playing all over the stadium?' I kind of went with it, and last year I didn't give up a run at home, so this year I came back (with it)."Unfortunately, the Katy Perry home scoreless streak ended on Monday when he allowed a run in the eighth inning of a win over the Astros. Mattheus says now that the magical ride is over, he's considered switching his song, but hasn't come to a decision just yet."I'm kind of debating it," Mattheus said. "But I think it's fun. The fans now are starting to get a little reaction out of it. It's just a fun song, kind of a joke. That's why I used it."But what about the whole intensity factor that leads most relievers to pick a song that's a bit – how should I say this – heavier? Doesn't Mattheus worry that the pop song might snap him out of the fierce mound mentality that relievers try to create?"Yeah, see, I think I'm over the top the other way," Mattheus said. "I'm always intense, and when I'm in there anyway, I feel like if I have that song, I can kind of calm down a little bit, maybe. Make me laugh and lighten up instead of getting more intense. It's just fun."As you might expect, Mattheus' teammates have gotten on him about the song a little bit, singing it as he walks by and making Katy Perry jokes from time to time. But Mattheus, who always seems to have a smile on his face, takes it all in stride."They give me a hard time about it all the time," Mattheus said. "Gio (Gonzalez), he hadn't heard it yet, so (Monday) night he was singing it to me. He was going, 'Baby you're a…' It was funny. He loves it. I just hope that's the reaction from everybody."

Amanda is reporting the following on twitter:Considering Davey said Brad Lidge had been dealing w/vertigo the past four days, his performance last night looks all the more impressive.Good grief how did he pitch with Vertigo?

Here's an explanation of magic numbers, and a Magic Number Calculator. I get 150 for the Nats, before tonight's games. Perhaps a more useful way to look at things at this early stage — we're 10% of the way to 90 wins, having played just 7.4% of the season.

Re: magic numbers — first off, I made a mistake, it's 149 (it's 148 to clinch a tie for first). But here's another way to compute it:Quite simple: if the Nats, at 9-3, win 149 more games, they will end up with 158 wins. (Bear with me). Their nearest opponent, Atlanta and mets, are both 7-5, and with 150 left to play, the most they can win is 157.Boom, magic number is 149.There are other ways to compute it, but they are all mathematically equivalent to the above.Perhaps a more useful way to look at things at this early stage — we're 10% of the way to 90 wins, having played just 7.4% of the season. Or, how about this: if they just _split_ the next four games, they will be at 11-5, with exactly 10% of the season finished, and that will be on pace for 110 wins!

Scott from Burke said… DC Wonk..that's why I wrote you're number was high..you weren't taking into account…you take facts that show you're wrong and use them as your own argument…I have a cousin who does that..he's 8Oh, please, I thought we were friends again — or at least had gotten past the name calling.In any event, just because I said the magic number is 148, doesn't mean they are going to win 148 — I never said that. Do the math yourself: their magic number (to _tie_ the division) is indeed 148. So, how am I wrong?You don't want me to dredge up parabola man again, do you?

I didn't realize the Mets and Braves had played this afternoon, so Wonk is right, the magic number is 149. The formula is (Total games in season) plus 1, minus (games won by Nats) minus (games lost by nearest opponent). And @Scott from Burke, Wonk's original number was low, not high. Why are you so unpleasant?

And another nonsensical direction taken by posters Just passing the time before the game starts, for those of us who aren't on vacation and can't be at a bar yet. But feel free to start a more interesting debate if you wish.

Espinosa again..Davey must feel certain Espi is better than Lombo..and I'm certain Davey knows more about the game than I do…but I would have liked to see Lombo get rewarded for that game the other night with another start

Scott from Burke said… DC Wonk..that's why I wrote you're number was high..you weren't taking into account…you take facts that show you're wrong and use them as your own argument…I have a cousin who does that..he's 8You clearly don't know what a magic number is. It's not the number of wins the first place team needs to get in order to clinch. It's any combination of wins by the first place team plus losses by the second place team that adds up to that number. In other words, the Nats can clinch by winning way fewer than 148 (or even 149) games now, depending on what the other teams do.

the Nats can clinch by winning way fewer although I am concerned with your use of the word 'can'..it has to be WOULD..its a complicated formula because one has to take into the acct th enumber of games against the mets and diamondbacks (wild card)…i wonder if there's a website that computes it…

So JZ gets the imaginary run support and now he gets the one horrible weather day that we have had in the last month. Who did he tick off? Seems like such a nice boy. His luck has got to turn at some point. Either that, or he needs to start throwing things in the dugout. One of his games would be a nice place for a couple of the Nats to start hitting the ball a wee bit farther than the warning track.

Amanda is reporting the following on twitter:Considering Davey said Brad Lidge had been dealing w/vertigo the past four days, his performance last night looks all the more impressive.Good grief how did he pitch with Vertigo?You would think it would look something like this.An unlikely duo: Ryan Mattheus and Katy PerryRyan Perry?Okay, I'm outta here…

Section 222 said:But feel free to start a more interesting debate if you wish._____________________________________________________________Please do.I told a guy at the game last night about this blog, and how terrific most of the posters were.

Amanda is reporting the following on twitter:Considering Davey said Brad Lidge had been dealing w/vertigo the past four days, his performance last night looks all the more impressive.Good grief how did he pitch with Vertigo?That's not the real question. If Lidge has vertigo, why is Tyler Clippard the one falling off the mound when he's trying to throw a pitch?

@ScottfromBurke — Check out the links in my post above. There's an explanation and a calculator if you don't want to do the math, though the math is pretty darn easy. It's a simple formula and can be applied between any two teams. It answers the question, "what's the magic number for finishing ahead of the other team." The magic number for being assured of finishing with a better record than the Braves and Mets is 149. The magic number for having a better record than the D-backs is 150. Our magic number vis a vis the Phillies is 148.Of course, caring about what the magic number is at this point of the season is, as NatsJack suggests, nonsensical.

Game to start on time at 7:05 according to the Nats' inclement weather update line. We won't be going because of the damp, chilly weather and the crowd will be miniscule. I was hoping for a doubleheader tomorrow. This is on top of poor attendance for Strasmas and cheap seat night.

You're tough, NatsJack. I like that. Does the fact that you're doing so guarantee that the game will start on time, as with my carrying an umbrella somewhere with me, guaranteeing that it won't rain? :-)NatsJack in section 235 said… I'm here at Nats Park and aside from freezing my ass off, I will see a 7:05 start. April 18, 2012 6:21 PM

Stern and Bowden were stirring it up on XM about Rizzo saying Strasburg would not pitch over an inning limit not yet determined. The big deal being that the Nats would put in jeopardy the post season to protect the long term health of Strasburg. Aside from the fact that they were treating it as new news even though it has been known since March, the discussion was remarkable for the fact that they were acting as though postseason games are a given for the Nats. Finally the Nats are viewed as postseason discussion worthy. But like the Red Sox and the Yankees, the Nats will now be subject to scripted controversy of the day (cool!). Yesterday attendance. Today innings limit. Tomorrow Lombo v. Espinosa. Works for me…

I wonder why Pudge would announce his retirement now? He clearly wanted to play this season and it seems only a matter of time before the natural attrition of the long season puts someone on the DL and he'd get the call – why not do what Clemens did all those years and just wait for the phone to ring?

Just a guess, Davey wrote Espi's name in on the card today…..and Rizzo is probably steaming over it as I would guess he strongly suggested that Lombo should start.Espi better come through for his manager is all I have to say.

Assuming none of our other starters get hurt we don't actually NEED 37 in the playoffs; YES, it would be great to have him, but this pitching staff is good enough to win without him, especially in the post-season where you only need 4 guys (if that with travel and weather) in the rotation…

Gonat.. some how I don't see Rizzo making any comments on who Davey plays, doesn't seem like his style. Plus I am guessing Davey's response would be to tell Rizzo to go stick it in his ear (or some other body part)Anon 7:08.. Excellent points about only needing 4 starters in the Playoffs. If Wang comes back strong, then we should be good to go with our top 4 (Plus Det in the Pen)

laroche had to dig out the short hop..zimmerman will only cut it loose if absolutely necesarry..looked like a throw from a high school freshman…if the threw had reached laroche onthe fly there would be nothing to criticize..the fact it didnt is something to criticize..see the difference?

I wonder why Pudge would announce his retirement now? He clearly wanted to play this season and it seems only a matter of time before the natural attrition of the long season puts someone on the DL and he'd get the call – why not do what Clemens did all those years and just wait for the phone to ring?7:00, it may be he has an offer or a plan to go do something else, and the open-endedness of it all just doesn't sit well with a very, very proud man. And remember, there's nothing irrevocable about it. If the phone does ring, he's still allowed to answer it.

I heard there was an interesting discussion on ESPN on the Scott Van Pelt show. He had Buster Olney on as a guest and 1st question was the possibility of a Beltway World Series.From what I understand, Buster said the Orioles won't be part of the World Series but the Nats are his sleeper pick.Maybe someone can find the audio.

I heard Olney this afternoon and I knew were to look. Love Olney's laugh about the Beltway series.Also, Tim K was all over DC radio today talking about Stras and how good he is. (On WaPO – Bog's got a snippet about it)

I feel bad for JZim. I'm sorry FP, you can show all the OBP graphics you want, this team is still not hitting well. The pitchers are winning the games for the Nats. I'm not sure the Nats managed to do what the Astros just did in the 4th all year.

This is just an absolutely atrocious display of hitting. This team can't even hit the bad pitchers in this league. Yeah, they are 9-3, but that will not last with an offense like this. Best pitching staff in the league and they are going to struggle to be .500!!!

Things will get better after April 26 I think, when they can bring players up from minors and not lose a year to free agency, correct ?I think the Bernadina experiment will be over. Ankiel and DeRosa will not be on the team in August.

The only thing positive is that its always better to have good pitching, we have that, we clearly can't hit worth a crap, Bernadina, Ankiel, derosa SUCK period and if Espi does not start hitting soon, he can go too

Man, how do FP come up with so many excuses?Eh. It's a different model. Some people value criticism and negativity, and like to think of it as "telling it like it is." Some people prefer cheerleading (which the former might characterize as "blowing smoke").

MicheleS…..laugh if you will but we were discussing the circle change versus the "evening shade" change ups.He thought it was interesting because he knew what I was talking about AND the change up was what he was determined to master this Spring.

Bernadina is playing his last game as a National tonight…one can hope!!! Hopefully DeRosa, Tracy and Ankiel will be soon as well. Bring up the young guys. They cannot be any worse. And BTW…why does Lombardozzi go 4-5 and sit the bench the next two games???

If we lose without scoring a run, it is time for Davey to get up in these guys grill and tell them that if you want to be part of this team, you need to prepare how you approach every pitch and if you are not embarrassed by your performance thus far, get the F out here!!!!!

Anonymous said… Bernadina is playing his last game as a National tonight…one can hope!!! Hopefully DeRosa, Tracy and Ankiel will be soon as well. Bring up the young guys. They cannot be any worse. And BTW…why does Lombardozzi go 4-5 and sit the bench the next two games??? April 18, 2012 8:28 PM __________________________Bernadina just got an extra day DBag

18 straight scoreless innings against the ASTROS (minus the b.s. run yesterday on two dropped pop-ups) isn't a good sign for the future success of this team. They couldn't hit last year and cannot hit this year. This season could turn ugly in a hurry. There is a reason that people crash after drinking Kool-aid!!!

Amazing…looking at the derivative in Harrell's pitching stats actually was useful to indicate probabilities of being hittable.the mlb gameday screen plots velocity and movement per inning for the pitcher. A strong gradient showed up after 5 inn for Harrell

18 straight scoreless innings against the ASTROS (minus the b.s. run yesterday on two dropped pop-ups) isn't a good sign for the future success of this teamThat's right, because what actually happens doesn't matter if something bad might happen later. G-d forbid anybody should just enjoy anything.

They flashed a stat that JZ has the lowest run support in baseball since the beginning of last year. Remarkable, really, although I didn't think it was his best effort tonight.Let's go Nats. Need a couple of runs here.

Someone posted that this wasn't JZim's best effort tonight. Really? One run that was manufactured and under 90 pitches for 7? Sheesh. Seems like the type guy who would be happy with a team win, though.

agree with Wally that zimnn didnt seem as sharp tonight, especially early, and i was at the park. that said, he got the job done. and ramos showed us something there. as did ALR and Worth. also some pretty lame high strike calls from the home plate ump that hurt us. cold night but worth being there, for sure!