Phils Bounce Back Against Astros, 12-6

How did this team lose to the Astros last night? The Phils bounced back in a big way Friday night, as the bats caught fire with the offense putting up 12 runs on 16 hits. They scored three runs before the Astros even recorded an out. Here are some notes from the blowout:

‘OKAY’ START FOR HAMELS

Cole Hamels didn’t have a great game, but he didn’t pitch all that badly, either. He threw seven innings, while giving up four runs (three of the earned) and added eight strikeouts. He gave up two home runs—one to Justin Maxwell in the 5th and one to Matt Downs in the 4th.

Also getting some work in tonight were Justin De Fratus and Jeremy Horst. Each of them gave up one run in one inning, and Horst struck out the side.

PHOTO: AP

OFFENSE!

WHAT IS THIS?! Okay, maybe it’s because they played the Astros, but still. I like seeing those ‘crooked numbers’, as Wheels likes to say. 12 runs, 16 hits, four multi-run innings–I love it. Jimmy Rollins started off the game with a home run and it just kept getting better from there. Hopefully the offense can put up even half of what they did tonight more frequently.

THE RUF RIDER COMETH

Darin Ruf had an at-bat. And he popped out to third base. Oh well, it was nice to finally see him get some action. Let’s see if he lands in the starting lineup in one of the two remaining games in the series.

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DavidE

September 15, 2012 at 12:39 am

Good win tonight but 3 errors in the field.

Anyway, Papelbon got another night off and Aumont, Lindblom and Bastardo also got a needed night off. Those things are important at this time in the season. If the Dodgers hold on, the Phillies will be 3 behind St. Louis, 2 behind the Dodgers and tied with the Pirates although the Pirates are a game up in the loss column. A much better position that anyone could have hoped for 2 weeks ago.

So will a 3 rbi night for Ryan give him something to think about? With the kids clickin, if Ryan and Jimmy get a head of steam, this team should be unbeatable. Not to mention Chase Utley and the wonderous Chooch and some great pitching from KK, seeing better of Lee – I am thinking this train has a smooth ride if those 2 start to hit with consistency.
Its just what the doctor ordered? Looking at the tailights and turning up the burners. Lets face it, it would be greater than what happened in 06

Fun game to watch, the errors are bothersome, but for the most part the pen did ok. one earned one unearned run I believe. But the offense was relentless and the base running really good. It would be nice to have an easy win again Saturday. The bad part is depending on others teams to lose and not having the destiny in their own hands.

This is ridiculous – I just got my post season invoice – all tickets have gone up by as much as $6.00 a piece. Everything has gone up but what if the Phils do falter for the next few? Will they give some of that back? Parking is outrageous anymore (I know, DC Stadium was beyond stoopid), concessions – Beer used to be bought for $6.50 now are going near $8.50, beer. My seats have gone up and likely will go up again for 2013.
That could be argued the price for success but what about when they fail? Can we get normalized then?

Some of that Hamels contract will be paid for by not having Pence, Victorino, and Blanton for the rest of this year, and not having Polanco and maybe a few others next year and beyond.

Tickets and concessions have gone up, but so has everything else. Gas, for instance, is no better now than it was at $2.50 a gallon, and the medical profession has actually gotten far worse, even though the costs are now totally unaffordable. Does a doctor give anything back when he’s misdiagnosed your disease? No; he sends you for more expensive tests. At least you don’t have to buy an extra ticket when the Phils lose (you might want an extra beer, though!)

In response to Jonathan’s opening question.. “How did this team lose to the Astros last night?” (meaning Thursday night)….

I’m not surprised at all that they lost and I kind of predicted that it COULD happen. Team goes on a tear, plays with all that home-field energy at CBP, then goes out on the road to a play before a couple thousand fans in a place with weird lighting…what do you expect? It’s not all that uncommon for a team to come out flat. Plus, Cloyd on the mound on short rest.

Yes, they had that game and you can argue that the bullpen gave it away…which it did….or that Charlie made some questionable decisions with the relievers ….. which he did… But the offense on Friday was flat and they had plenty of chances to add on to their lead…. which they didn’t.

They had a 4-0 lead in the game. And there is zero law, in either the Constituion, physics, or the Driver’s License Manuel that says 7 can’t turn into 8. There’s plenty of core on this club that many, many times has finished a home stand well, and kept it going on the road. Softening the loss isn’t a crime, but totally forgetting it is overdoing it. Lose the 2 card by a game, and that loss has the same value against any would’ve should’ve could’ve venture from the entire year.

Lefty, I did that math yesterday and I think you are correct. If we end the weekend 2GB I am thrilled. Still a long shot but not quite as long as the beginning of the week. I’m still in the
“I think they miss the postseason camp” but I hope I’m wrong.

Me too, because there is no room for error. Every loss is like a dagger stab, eventually you’re done for. Can they do it? It’s possible. Is it likely? No.

But here’s the rub IMO-
You watch every game intently, you watch the other teams games, you root for all of this, and if somehow the miracle happens, the reward is you get to play a one game crapshoot at Turner field. You get the pre-curser to the playoffs, not in the playoffs.

I don’t know it’s just not the same to me as a real race to get the playoffs.

But if you beat Atlanta in that 1 game playoff, suddenly you come home for the first 2 games of the next series. And what’s so bad about a crapshoot? And it won’t be a crapshoot anyway, in all liklihood. The 2 card is gonna be a flat out underdog for the play in game because the Braves, with very good pitching anyway, will have a chance to set it up with plenty of rest while the teams left fighting for the final spot will probably be exhausting arms with a final push. The underdog status adds to the excitement.

The whole thing is an artistic scam. Winning a WS is still terrific, but it’s a different terrific than back in the day. There was something special, in a way, about a pennant taking you straight to a step away. This lets fraudulent teams in. But marketing wise, it’s awesome, and that’s how the world works. I’d bet that even in San Diego, they were straining their brains in some corners to justify thinking the Pads had a shot as recently as a few days back. And this destroys baseball history. These Cardinal type comebacks of a year ago are gonna happen frequently now. The ’51 Giants Win the Pennant! are gonna get totally forgotten, instead of largely by the onslaught of miracle comebacks that I could see happening as often as every 3 years minimum.

I’d be crushed if they lose the playin game. And it’d be even worse since it’d be from a over the ceiling level in getting there. I’ll take my chances on it happening again in easily deciding that rooting for it is the only way to go. And fully in. Heartbreak, be damned.

“heartbreak be damned” is fine, I’m a 50 year fan and that’ll never change. But I say “marketing wise that’s the way the world works” be damned.

We are a .500 ball club and have no business being this close to a spot, this isn’t basketball or hockey or the NFL’s 9-7 NY Giants Super Bowl team. I’m still rooting, but you guys will have to forgive my old time purist ways, but a WS Champ should deserve to be one over 162+ games not just 30 plus.

The only thing I could characterize as fraudulent would be ME, if I change my stripes after all those bad things I said about the Cardinals being fake world champs last year. Personally, I hate “the way the world works” sometimes.

@Lefty, I know we will be upset if we don’t make it. But HOW exciting is this that we are even discussing all these scenarios!!! I love it
Man.

Also, why do the Phillies have no confidence in Fransden at 3rd for 2013?? The man has an amazing average. I’m confused. He is clearly better than Perdo Feliz and we won w him at third (much respec for PFs defense).

Frandsen is a “tweener” . Typically they don’t make it in the Majors even though they can hit. By that I mean he is neither a fast slick base stealing type, or a power guy, he’s a tweener. There are a lot of these guys in the minors, good enough to be there, but not good enough to be here. He joined the Giants organization when he was 22 and hit pretty well in the minors. He was brought up several times but never hit consistently in short (probably not fair sample size) stints.

The last two seasons at LV he hit over .300 but had only 5 home runs and 7 stolen bases total in 2 years.

Right, the thinking is that Frandsen is in a hot streak and won’t be able to keep up the average. And without power or many walks, you’re left with Polanco’s hitting but without the great defense that made him a good overall third baseman.

Batting average is a common denominator to all baseball fans. And historic too, dating back to before the world was created. But would you prefer a .245 BA to a .280 one if the .245 guy was adept at drawing walks, and his OBP was .330, and the .280 guy lived for 1st pitch swinging, and had an OBP of .310? Batting average is a conversation piece anymore.

Additionally, there’s a stat called BABIP, batting averages on balls in play. This performs as a predictor based on the law of averages. It measures a guys batting average when he makes contact. if it’s high, chances are he’ll drop back over some course of future. You can reverse it foir a pitcher with his BAA, batting average against. Frandsen has the BAPIP gods on his side tis year

Kevin has played quite a while, and put together unspectactular numbers. But it has been choppy, and now, given a dose of steady play now, and running shorter on chances, and learning from mistakes, he’s answered the bell. But longer term performance levels can’t be totally ignored.

What I’m saying is you can’t completely ignore the questions with him and go hog pig wild over thinking he’s as much as part of the future as the club did to lock in Hamels. You could do worse than him, but you have to be open to doing better when the Hot Stove Season is still so far away. In the meantime, he’s a terrific story worthy of a lot of appreciation.

Can BABIP be influenced by type of contact? For example, one guy rips the hide off the ball; another is a banjo hitter. I remember it being said that Ted Kluzewski had more potential home runs caught by the 2B or SS – because he hit these line shots that kept on soaring – than anyone else in baseball. Given a hitter of this type, wouldn’t/couldn’t his BAPIP be high … and stay high, because he represents a much greater challenge to the fielder (infield OR outfield)? The converse to this would be the aforementioned banjo hitter who, one year, gets bunches of seeing-eye singles and, the next, reverts to the Mendoza mean. To the degree that any of this has validity, then it might be interesting to regard BABIP by sub-category: breaking out BABIP for power hitters from the rest of the BABIP crowd. Inquiring minds want to know.

Lou, I think you are on to something.
I can’t speak for Schmenkman, but the when I first learned about BABIP it was really meant as a pitcher’s stat. In other words- was a pitcher allowing a “banjo” hitter to bat like a power hitter, or just the opposite, turning power into reaching bats and buckled knees.

Today it is used commonly for both, and is mainly considered a component of luck. I’m not totally on board with that, although there is something to it. I think a better way of measuring a hitter’s success is line drive rate, not BABIP. Fly balls and ground balls are, in general, easier to catch or make outs on. Hitters with high line drive rates usually have more success. So Yes type of contact definitely affects BABIP, though as you know, hard liners get caught sometimes, and bloop singles often drop in.

There is no perfect system, but the general feeling is that if the average line drive rate is 20% you add 10 points to that and get your BABIP- So .20 gets you to .30 or as we know it a .300 BABIP. Is it perfect? no, but pretty close.

I still think BABIP is more useful as a pitchers stat. A pitcher can just have an unlucky year, where more batted balls fall in. Or- it could be that he’s throwing meatballs down the pike which are bound to get scorched. In that case you might use the stat to know when to check his mechanics, release point, or just to see how many pitches a guy is able to throw before he starts getting beat up.

I’m sure Schmenkman can post an article that does a better job of explaining it, this is just my opinion.

“I think a better way of measuring a hitter’s success is line drive rate, not BABIP. Hitters with high line drive rates usually have more success.”

I was strolling through I guess Fan Graphs one night, curious about batting averages on line drives. Obviously, you think it’s gonna be higher, maybe .400, maybe even .500, but when I looked and saw averages of like .700, and .800, it blew me away. Thome, for example was .600, and I think it was ARod, maybe in the past that was at .800.

So as common sense would suggest, anybody hits liners is gonna be good, but the degree of good amazed me Just from batting average alone.

Lou – BABIP can be influenced by the type of hitter, definitely. For pitchers, BABIP is almost entirely a luck statistic, and most pitchers have very similar BABIPs. But batters who hit a high % of line drives will have higher career BABIPs than other batters, sometimes by a significant amount. So a batters BABIP can only be predicted against that specific batters career BABIP, and not the BABIPs of other hitters, while a pitcher’s BABIP CAN be compared to those of other pitchers.

Other things that influence a hitters BABIP include power (home runs are the one type of swing that can NEVER make an out, so a heavy home run hitters BABIP is gonna go up), and ability to “spray” the ball, which makes it harder for fielders to predict him. Lastly, the speed of the hitter can increase their career BABIP as they beat out grounders that would be outs for other hitters. The ultimate example of a high BABIP guy is Derek Jeter (not a power guy, but sprays the ball like nobody else).

Joe DiMaggio had a BAPIP of .314 one year. An impulsive reaction to that, based on the firm thought planted in your mind of what a great player he was would lean toward he must have been unlucky that season. And typical of Joe, who struck out a little less than 5 times in every 100 at bats (OVER HIS ENTIRE CAREER!), he only struck out 37 times in 692 plate appearances, so there was a lot of samples leading into that .314 BAPIP reflecting bad luck.
In fact, the 37 K’s aren’t included in the BAPIP, but neither are the 46 homers he hit, since those suckers don’t meet the criteria of balls in play. Consider Ryan Howard’s strikeouts to homers ratio even in the best of times, and you realize the absurdity of homering more than striking out. With that .314 BAPIP, DiMag totalled up these digits

So with Joe’s 46 homers taken out, thus reducing his BAPIP to the .314, there’s evidence of Joe having pretty high amoiunt of bad luck that year, especially since great player that he was, a lot of those outs were probably balls hit with AUTHORITY. What an awesome season, with bad luck mixed in, no less.

Joe DiMaggio’s career BABIP was only .304, so the .314 wasn’t particularly lucky or unlucky from what we can tell.

We could get an idea about that if we knew his line drive rate, since it heavily influences what % of balls fall in (as do ground ball and fly ball rates), but we don’t have that data from before 2002.