This week, Daryl writes a somewhat dismissive piece on the 2013
White Sox; namely, enjoy these White Sox while you can, because “it says here”
that potentially a half-dozen key contributors will be gone.

Under first-year manager Robin Ventura and his new-look coaching staff, the team has played a clean brand of baseball on the field and has been refreshingly distraction-free off the field.

Enjoy it while you can.

In the always-changing roster landscape driven by free agency, it says here the team as constituted will be no more after this season, whether it ends with a second ticker-tape parade in eight years or no postseason at all.

I actually had to double-take on this piece, because it sure
smelled Cowleyesque, but then, I remembered that Cowley had been
demoted--er, "reassigned"--to the Chicago Bears beat from the columnist post he held for just
about 18 months. Perhaps the writer was Rick Telander, orchestrator of the Gordon Beckham-Chris
Getz controversy a year ago, a cheap and shameless grab at relevancy that
was trumped only by Sun-Times sports ogre Chris DeLuca chastising the White Sox beat
for largely ignoring his paper’s insulting non-story.

Turns out it was neither writer, but in fact Daryl who penned the
pessimism. For so many years the Sun-Times, in spite of the presence of
all-time South Side hiney bird Jay Mariotti, was considered the healthy alternative to the pro-Cubbies Tribune. But between Cowley’s muckracking and the more subtle negatives abounding in seemingly innocuous pieces like Van Schouwen’s, the Sun-Times actually
has emerged as the publication more dour toward all things South Side.

Anyway, yes, Daryl is merely stating the obvious, that the 25 men on the roster today will not all be White Sox in
2013. So let’s examine the six players he drops into the departure pot and
stir up some reality-check odds on their returns.

A.J.
Pierzynski

Not everyone attaches to A.J. a proper value.

After an 12th hour re-signing in 2010 that many predicted would bite the White Sox resoundingly in the ass come 2012, A.J. has outperformed his $6 million salary this season in absolutely astounding fashion. (In fact, to date
Pierzynski has provided $20.8 in value per FanGraphs on his two-year $8 million deal--one that
seemed overly sentimental and a huge risk for Chicago.) That sets Williams up
for another game of chicken this offseason, as fans will clamor to bring the
seemingly ageless backstop back for another couple of seasons, while the GM
will keep looking at the clock, sun dial or calendar and thinking that at some point, Pierzynski will collapse into a pile of dust, leaving the team badly undermanned at catcher.
Pierzynski’s career year has made what could have been a tricky decision a
no-brainer, especially with the regression of Tyler Flowers and absolutely no
one in the minor leagues capable of even replacing Flowers as the backup at
this point. If we’re to believe A.J.’s constant proclamations that his first
choice is to continue his career in Chicago, this is a consummately easy call.

Chance
of 2013 return: 95%

Gavin
Floyd

Kicking the man on his down year, Van Schouwen questions whether
longtime rotation stalwart Floyd will have his relatively inexpensive, $9.5
million option picked up. At 2012’s rate of production (1.2 WAR/$5.4 million)
it’s possible decline, sure, but if Williams looks at Floyd’s body of work for
the White Sox he’ll see a surplus value to Chicago of some $45 million dollars.
Put another way, 2012 is the first season Floyd won’t provide substantial
surplus value for the White Sox. If Floyd isn’t on the Opening Day roster in
2013, it won’t be because his option was declined.

Chance
of 2013 return: 90%

Jake
Peavy

Peavy has been healthy for a full season for his first time in a
White Sox uniform, and as a result he’s on track to actually outearn his
onerous, $17 million contract (3.4 WAR/$15.3 million value projects to 5.0
WAR/$22.5 million for the full season). His value as a de facto captain of a
pitching staff in which no man wishes to lead (no thanks to the ineffectual and
now injured John Danks) adds dollars to his contribution, in much the same way
Paulie doesn’t have to produce $12 million on the field to earn his postgame
spreads and beers. So if Peavy can duplicate his 2012 in 2013, he’d be
a fair deal for the White Sox even at the pricier ($22 million) option rate.But
it shouldn’t come to that; while Peavy is proud, the Bulldog is not obstinate
and realizes he's in the red with the White Sox overall. Provided the White Sox
roll his $4 million buyout into a contract extension (maybe it will come in the
form of deferred payments later this decade), Peavy would be good to stay in
Chicago for a few more years. Look for Danks money in a three-year, $42 million
extension.

Chance
of 2013 return: 75%

Liriano, under scores of watchful eyes.

Francisco
Liriano

Obviously, how the southpaw performs in the stretch run will have
a lot to do with Williams’ interest in bringing him back. But in the midst of a disappointing season, (0.7 WAR/$3.2 million value), Liriano could jump at a Floyd-like deal (an
escalating, three-year, $24 million contract, let's say). That way, Williams will keep his man and,
as an added bonus, potentially torment the rival Minnesota Twins three or four
times per season directly.

Chance
of 2013 return: 35%

Kevin
Youkilis

Yolk is a tough call, as for all the life he breathed initially
into the White Sox, he’s still just a 1.2 WAR/$5.4 million player so far this
season. Granted, he could sit the rest of the year and remain quite a steal for
Williams, who is paying just $1 million for the sweaty one in 2012. His $13 million option in 2013 is another matter entirely, and short of Yolk wanting so
badly to stay some sort of Sox that he accepts a Visquelian veteran’s package
(let’s say a drop to $4 million), he’ll be gone. Shame, because it’s hard to
imagine Brent Morel being any less Morellian in 2013, and I’d wager that $6 million
would keep Yolk in Chicago.

Chance
of 2013 return: 20%

Snapshots like these will become increasingly rare in the Dog Days.

Brett
Myers

Myers was a gratuitous addition, to the degree
that if Jesse Crain hadn't been alternating injured obliques all season long, Myers wouldn't have been added at all. That said, the righthanded veteran has blossomed into an ideal and efficient setup man for
rookie Addison Reed. In order for a monstrous 2013 option ($10 million) to kick in,
Myers needs to finish 45 games in 2012; he’s at 32 at this point and it would
take an absolute implosion by Reed for Myers to finish more than 12 additional
games for the White Sox from here. Myers has provided more than .05 WAR per
game for the White Sox (per Baseball-Reference), but even that unlikely clip
(Myers is just a 0.2 WAR performer on the season overall) won’t make him a good
buy in 2013.

Chance
of 2013 return: 5%

You guys are really asking me if I'll be back?

Orlando
Hudson

Wait, Hudson wasn't on Daryl's short list. No respect for the O-Dog, Dutchman? Sheesh.

About Poetry in Pros

Brett most recently logged a couple of beats at CSNChicago, first following the Blackhawks and covering their first Stanley Cup win in 49 years, then shifting to the South Side and the White Sox.

His sportswriting career began right before the turn of the century, first as an editor for Basketball News and later editing Basketball Digest and Bowling Digest. He has written for Baseball Digest and MLB Trade Rumors, as well as the Chicago White Sox and MLB World Series programs, as well as Slam, Hoop, Inside Stuff, Courtside, Rinkside, and numerous NBA game programs. He has been featured in ESPN the Magazine, the Chicago Sun-Times, the Baltimore Sun and Crain's Chicago Business, and on Comcast Sports Net, NBA-TV, NHL.com, MLB.com, WLS-TV, WGN-TV and the BBC. He's also written features for the NBA Finals and NBA All-Star Game programs.

Brett is the author of the essential baseball reference work 'The Wit and Wisdom of Ozzie Guillen.' When Ozzie first saw the book, on Opening Night 2006, he cracked wise to those in his manager's office, asking, "What's wisdom?" To which owner Jerry Reinsdorf replied, "Don't worry, Ozzie. You don't have any."

A lifelong Chicago sports fan, the first game Brett attended was on Dec. 4, 1976, watching the Bulls snap a (still) franchise-record 13-game losing streak and setting in motion the playoff run that would come to be defined as the Miracle on Madison. At Brett's first White Sox game on June 4, 1977, Richie Zisk of the South Side Hit Men homered over the roof at Comiskey Park at a time when the feat was as rare as a no-hitter. Brett's first Chicago Bears game was on Oct. 7, 1984, when Walter Payton broke the all-time NFL career rushing mark.

More than anything, however, Brett is a baseball and a White Sox fan, having seen hundreds of games over his lifetime, including a walk-off grand slam by Carlos Lee to defeat the Cubbies, the infamous Michael Barrett sucker-punch on A.J. Pierzynski, a then-season record home run by Oscar Gamble in 1977, Bobby Thigpen's 50th season save in 1990, and the classic Blackout tiebreaker win over the Twins in 2008. There have been many pilgrimages to see the team, including a September 1990 drive up from Texas to see a final series at Comiskey Park, an April 1991 flight to watch the otherwise-unmentionable first game at the then-New Comiskey Park, outrunning a snowstorm to see the White Sox be whitewashed in a late September game at Kauffman Stadium, and a jaunt down to the Hovering Sombrero in 2005 to catch the club take on the Tampa Bay Rays.

His highlight as a fan is, of course, witnessing the entire home run of 2005 White Sox playoff victories, including the two extraordinary wins over the Houston Astros at USCF that spurred a World Series sweep. More recently, he took in Mark Buehrle's perfect game in 2009, during which Brett made the boldest prediction imaginable—not of an eventual perfect game, but a Josh Fields grand slam! Brett has watched games in every major league city.

Brett graduated from Texas Christian University with a Journalism and English degree and came thisclose to finishing his English master's at Kansas State University while teaching composition to disinterested agribusiness majors. He's won a number of writing awards in areas as varied as poetry, fiction, features, news reporting and opinion writing. Brett lives in Florida with his incomparable wife, Angelique.

Poetry in Pros Trivia

Now that you know a little bit about Poetry in Pros writer Brett Ballantini, see how you score below. True or false, Brett:

Believes that the ABA saved professional basketball.

Borrowed the title of the first draft of his master's thesis from a Camper Van Beethoven song.

Co-founded and played in a band called Ethnocentric Republicans, who once shared a bill with 15-minutes-of-fame grunge rockers The Toadies.

Considers nachos piled high with jalapenos as his go-to concession food.

Gave a Crunch bar to then-Nestle spokesman Shaquille O'Neal before their first interview together in Milwaukee. Later saw an empty Crunch bar wrapper in Shaq's locker.

Gave three photographs from his personal collection to the Chicago Bulls for their "walk of fame" leading to the locker room at the United Center.

Had four front teeth.

Has appeared in one movie, in which he was murdered when Albert Einstein slammed his head in a door.

Has appeared on the cover of a magazine with a circulation of 100,000. As Santa Claus. Bowling.

Has attended just three games in Wrigley Field as a fan. One was to see the Chicago Sting.

Has been a vegetarian for 30 years.

Has been doused by Bill Veeck's outfield shower in two different decades, in two different White Sox parks.

Hasn't cried over a game since Tito Landrum crushed that homer off of Britt Burns in October 1983.

Has worked for at least seven publications that are no longer in business.

Kissed the Minnie Minoso statue in the outfield concourse at Sox Park on the cheek as a good-luck gesture before Game 1 of the 2005 World Series.

Caught a foul ball while covering a preseason game from the roof of Tempe Diablo Stadium. On his birthday.

To Wit:

"When I build a fire under a person, I do not do it merely because of the enjoyment I get out of seeing him fry, but because he is worth the trouble. It is then a compliment, a distinction; let him give thanks and keep quiet. I do not fry the small, the commonplace, the unworthy."