Trade Defecithttp://www.businessinsider.com/category/trade-defecit
en-usFri, 09 Dec 2016 22:53:18 -0500Fri, 09 Dec 2016 22:53:18 -0500The latest news on Trade Defecit from Business Insiderhttp://static3.businessinsider.com/assets/images/bilogo-250x36-wide-rev.pngBusiness Insiderhttp://www.businessinsider.com
http://www.businessinsider.com/americas-trade-deficit-wasnt-always-a-jobs-killer-but-now-it-is-2016-7America's trade deficit wasn't always a jobs killer — but now it ishttp://www.businessinsider.com/americas-trade-deficit-wasnt-always-a-jobs-killer-but-now-it-is-2016-7
Sat, 09 Jul 2016 20:51:00 -0400Jordan Weissmann
<p><span><img style="float:right;" src="http://static1.businessinsider.com/image/577ff6da4321f1e2008b6ebc-999/gettyimages-84070277.jpg" alt="resume jobseeker hiring job fair career fair unemployed unemployment" data-mce-source="Justin Sullivan/Getty Images" data-link="http://www.gettyimages.com/license/84070277" />Here is something that noted broken clock Donald Trump sort of gets right about our economy: These days, America's trade deficit </span><em>is</em><span> a jobs killer.</span></p>
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<p>This is not typically the case. Under normal circumstances, foreign trade is supposed to affect the <em>types</em> of jobs available to workers, not the <em>number</em>.</p>
<p>There are a couple of reasons why.</p>
<p>For starters, whatever money flows out of the U.S. thanks to our import tab eventually comes back to us as investment; after all, countries have to do something with all the dollars they earn selling us flat-screen TVs, oil, and sneakers.</p>
<p>More often than not, that means buying U.S. Treasury bonds, which in turn keeps our interest rates low, allowing businesses here to borrow cheaply and invest.</p>
<p>Beyond that, if the job market ever gets too soft, the Federal Reserve can ordinarily cut rates to push the economy back to full employment. So when T-shirt imports from China put a bunch of American textile factories out of commission, to take just one example, other businesses should emerge to take their place.</p>
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<p>You can see how this works in practice if you think back to the 1990s, when we had a burning-hot job market and a growing trade deficit, or the mid-2000s, when unemployment dropped below 5 percent even as manufacturing work flew off to Shenzen.</p>
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<p>But these are different times. Interest rates have been stuck near zero ever since the Great Recession as the economy has struggled to fully recover, meaning Treasury purchases by our trade partners don't do us much good. (If you buy Larry Summers'<a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2010/01/01/opinion/01krugman.html" target="_blank">theories about secular stagnation</a>, those capital inflows might actually be harmful.)</p>
<p>And in the sick, sad economic world of the zero lower bound, our central bankers at the Fed can't do much to boost the labor market, either; their monetary policy tool kit is all but tapped out (some countries have tried <a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/quicktake/negative-interest-rates" target="_blank">negative rates</a>, but the effects haven't exactly inspired confidence yet).</p>
<p>So during the post-financial crisis era, our trade deficit has indeed turned into a drag on employment&mdash;a point Paul Krugman has <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2016/07/04/opinion/trump-trade-and-workers.html" target="_blank">been</a> <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2010/01/01/opinion/01krugman.html" target="_blank">making</a> off and on for several years now, as has the lefty <a href="http://www.epi.org/blog/yes-trade-deficits-do-indeed-matter-for-jobs/" target="_blank">Economic Policy Institute</a>. I assume that Trump himself hasn't considered any of these nuances, but at least his mercantilist instincts&mdash;which date back at least to his days of Japan-bashing in the 1980s&mdash;correspond to some sort of present day reality.</p>
<p><img src="http://static5.businessinsider.com/image/577ff78e4321f142368b6be5-2400/rtx1yy4l.jpg" alt="federal reserve" data-mce-source="Reuters/Kevin Lamarque" data-mce-caption="Bollards help secure the entrance to the Federal Reserve in Washington, Dec. 16, 2015." /></p>
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<p>One could reasonably look at this situation and conclude that, with rates bogged down at zero, it's more important than ever that we get our trade deficit in check.&nbsp;But that's a lot easier said than done&mdash;at least if you don't want to start a mutually destructive tariff war. (Trump is not bound by such practical concerns and has thus pretty much vowed to start said mutually destructive trade war.)</p>
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<p>Instead, I would argue the following: Instead of fixing our trade deficit, we can fix the economy. Congress could <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/moneybox/2016/02/24/one_thing_bernie_sanders_gets_absolutely_right_about_the_economy.html">pass a giant public works bill</a>, for instance, to help the U.S. catch up to its potential output, at which point interest rates could finally start rising back up to normal, and the usual mechanisms that prevent trade deficits from causing unemployment would be restored.</p>
<p>Of course, what I'm suggesting wouldn't fix the distributional aspects of free trade&mdash;globalization, as we've organized it, would still benefit white-collar over blue-collar workers, since it tends to replace industrial jobs with service work.</p>
<p>But at least we wouldn't have to accept slightly higher unemployment as part of the bargain for cheap TVs. And surely, a stimulus bill would be a simpler task for Washington than rejiggering the entire balance of world trade.</p>
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</div><p><strong>SEE ALSO:&nbsp;<a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/us-trade-balance-may-2016-2016-7" >Trade deficit widens more than expected in May</a></strong></p>
<p><a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/americas-trade-deficit-wasnt-always-a-jobs-killer-but-now-it-is-2016-7#comments">Join the conversation about this story &#187;</a></p> <p>NOW WATCH: <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/preauricular-sinus-small-hole-above-ear-2016-11">Here's why some people have a tiny hole above their ears</a></p> http://www.businessinsider.com/r-us-trade-deficit-widens-as-exports-hit-three-year-low-2015-12US trade deficit balloons as exports sink to a 3-year lowhttp://www.businessinsider.com/r-us-trade-deficit-widens-as-exports-hit-three-year-low-2015-12
Fri, 04 Dec 2015 08:39:05 -0500Lucia Mutikani
<p><img style="float:right;" src="http://static4.businessinsider.com/image/56619e738430761f008b765c-704-528/us-trade-deficit-widens-as-exports-hit-three-year-low.jpg" alt="A truck transports a container into a port of Miami, October 4, 2007. REUTERS/Carlos Barria" data-mce-source="Thomson Reuters" data-mce-caption="A truck transports a container into a port of Miami" /></p><p>WASHINGTON, Dec 4 (Reuters) &mdash;&nbsp;The U.S. trade deficit widened unexpectedly in October as exports fell to a three-year low, suggesting that trade could again weigh on economic growth in the fourth quarter.</p>
<p>The Commerce Department said on Friday the trade gap rose 3.4 percent to $43.9 billion, a sign that the worst of the drag from a stronger dollar was far from over. September's trade deficit was revised up to $42.5 billion from the previously reported $40.8 billion. The government revised trade figures going back to April to incorporate more comprehensive and updated quarterly and monthly data.</p>
<p>Economists had forecast the trade gap shrinking to $40.5 billion in October. When adjusted for inflation, the deficit increased to $60.33 billion from $57.37 billion in September.</p>
<p>Trade subtracted 0.22 percentage point from gross domestic product in the third quarter, which expanded at a 2.1 percent annual rate. The dollar's 18.6 percent appreciation against the currencies of the United States' main trading partners since June 2014 has eroded export growth.</p>
<p>Exports fell 1.4 percent to $184.1 billion, the lowest level since October 2012. Exports of goods were the lowest since June 2011. Food exports were the lowest since March 2012, while exports of industrial supplies and materials were the weakest in five years. Petroleum exports hit their lowest level since December 2010.</p>
<p>Imports dipped 0.6 percent to $228.0 billion in October. Imports of industrial supplies and materials fell to the lowest level since May 2009. Petroleum imports were the lowest since November 2003, reflecting increased domestic energy production and lower oil prices.</p>
<p>The politically sensitive U.S.-China trade deficit fell 9.1 percent to $33.0 billion.</p>
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<p>((Reporting By Lucia Mutikani; Editing by Andrea Ricci); ((Lucia.Mutikani@thomsonreuters.com; 1 202 898 8315; Reuters; Messaging: lucia.mutikani.thomsonreuters.com@reuters.net)))</p><p><a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/r-us-trade-deficit-widens-as-exports-hit-three-year-low-2015-12#comments">Join the conversation about this story &#187;</a></p> http://www.businessinsider.com/australia-just-posted-a-horrible-trade-deficit-the-worst-since-the-gfc-2015-6Australia just posted a horrible trade deficit, the worst since the GFChttp://www.businessinsider.com/australia-just-posted-a-horrible-trade-deficit-the-worst-since-the-gfc-2015-6
Wed, 03 Jun 2015 21:59:00 -0400Greg McKenna
<p><img src="http://static6.businessinsider.com/image/556fb097eab8ea1c43b57f06-1140-475/488187537.jpg" border="0" alt="cars crashing"></p><p><span style="line-height: 1.5em;">Australia’s April trade data is about as bad as it gets when you are looking for an economic transition. With imports up 4% and exports down 6% the seasonally adjusted deficit of $3,888 million is the worst print since February 2008.</span></p>
<p><img src="http://static4.businessinsider.com/image/556fb0736da8114844a75f1b-956-573/abs-trade.jpg" border="0" alt="ABS Trade"></p>
<p>The ABS said that part of the fall in exports was “driven by coal, coke and briquettes, down $859m (22%) as a result of the temporary closure of ports due to severe weather conditions.”</p>
<p>On the import side the surge was entirely misplaced it seems with the ABS reporting that, “Capital goods rose $546m (10%) driven by imports of machinery and industrial equipment, up $1,232m (69%). Intermediate and other merchandise goods rose $371m (4%).”</p>
<p>So on balance this looks a somewhat aberrant number. But it’s still as shock to a market which was looking for a deficit of just $2.25 billion.</p>
<p>The Aussie dollar is down 0.77% to 0.7716 as a result of this and the weak retail sales result.</p><p><strong>SEE ALSO:&nbsp;<a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/deutsche-banks-stocks-to-buy-right-now-2015-6?op=1#ixzz3c3S01wwP" >DEUTSCHE BANK: Here are 16 stocks to buy right now</a></strong></p>
<p><a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/australia-just-posted-a-horrible-trade-deficit-the-worst-since-the-gfc-2015-6#comments">Join the conversation about this story &#187;</a></p> <p>NOW WATCH: <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/merriam-websters-most-looked-up-word-pragmatic-2015-4">Here's the most looked-up word in the Merriam-Webster dictionary</a></p> http://www.businessinsider.com/the-top-export-and-import-in-every-us-state-2015-5The top export and import in every US statehttp://www.businessinsider.com/the-top-export-and-import-in-every-us-state-2015-5
Tue, 12 May 2015 16:01:00 -0400Matthew Speiser
<p>The following two maps show the most valuable import and export in each state in America by dollar value. The maps were prepared by cost estimating website&nbsp;<a href="http://www.fixr.com/" target="_blank">Fixr.com</a>&nbsp;<span style="line-height: 1.5em;">using <a href="https://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/statistics/state/data/index.html">2014 data</a>&nbsp;<span>from the US Census Bureau.&nbsp;</span></span></p>
<p><span>The US buys many more products than it sells. According to the&nbsp;<a href="http://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/international/trade/tradnewsrelease.htm" target="_blank">Bureau of Economic Analysis</a>, the U.S. imported $239.2 billion worth of goods in March compared to exports of just $187.8 billion.</span></p>
<p>Fuel, especially crude oil, is still a major import for many US states. Not coincidentally, machinery and transportation is the second most highly imported commodity. Other pockets of the country have a greater need for electronics while Wisconsin, somewhat comically, spends a large amount of money on sweaters.&nbsp;</p>
<h3>Imports:</h3>
<p><img src="http://static4.businessinsider.com/image/55522e3a6bb3f75413baac2a-760-650/screen shot 2015-05-12 at 12.45.11 pm.png" border="0" alt="imports by US state"></p>
<p><span style="line-height: 1.5em;">Machinery, particularly aircrafts, are a major export of the United States. Several states specialize in refining fuels, such as New Jersey, Texas, Pennsylvania, and West Virgina. </span></p>
<p><span style="line-height: 1.5em;">Major exports of other states are representative of the state as a whole. For example, Maine's biggest export is lobsters, Nevada's is gold, Michigan's is trucks, and Iowa exports lots of corn.&nbsp;</span></p>
<h3>Exports:</h3>
<p><img src="http://static3.businessinsider.com/image/55522f016da8111327fe49da-765-658/screen shot 2015-05-12 at 12.48.37 pm.png" border="0" alt="Screen Shot 2015 05 12 at 12.48.37 PM"></p><p><strong>SEE ALSO:&nbsp;<a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/16-most-socially-advanced-countries-2015-4?op=1#ixzz3ZxFBdtdx" >The 16 most socially advanced countries in the world </a></strong></p>
<p><a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/the-top-export-and-import-in-every-us-state-2015-5#comments">Join the conversation about this story &#187;</a></p> <p>NOW WATCH: <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/container-ships-collide-suez-canal-egypt-2015-3">Watch these giant container ships collide near the Suez Canal</a></p> http://www.businessinsider.com/march-trade-deficit-turned-q1-gdp-negative-2015-5Actually, the US economy just shrankhttp://www.businessinsider.com/march-trade-deficit-turned-q1-gdp-negative-2015-5
Tue, 05 May 2015 09:25:00 -0400Akin Oyedele
<p><img style="float:right;" src="http://static5.businessinsider.com/image/54f9dabb69beddbf190b2644-800-600/dry-drought-tree-desert-1.png" border="0" alt="dry drought tree desert"></p><p>It turns out the US economy may have contracted in the first quarter.</p>
<p>Last week, we learned that gross domestic product grew by just 0.2% in the first quarter, far below the 1% economists had expected.</p>
<p>Then on Tuesday, the Commerce Department reported that the <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/us-trade-balance-march-2015-5">trade deficit in March exploded</a> to a six-year high, $51.4 billion.</p>
<p>The surge in the deficit — the gap between imports and exports — has been <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/port-strike-effect-on-trade-deficit-2015-2">largely blamed</a> on the nine-month slowdown at West Coast ports, which has been resolved.</p>
<p>The slowdown and strike over a labor dispute limited the flow of goods through some of America's biggest ports. And that could have put more downward pressure on growth in the first quarter, according to economists.</p>
<p>In a note after the release, BNP Paribas economist Laura Rosner wrote: "We calculate that today's report, if taken at face value without considering any offset from inventories, implies a 0.6pp downward revision to first-quarter growth, leaving our tracking estimate at -0.4% q/q saar (BEA's initial estimate was +0.2% q/q saar)."</p>
<p>To explain why imports surged and exports were soft, Rosner suggests that the goods on inbound ships were unloaded before they were restocked with goods meant for exports.</p>
<p>TD Securities' Gennadiy Goldberg wrote that the jump in the deficit could erase between 0.2 and 0.3 percentage points from first-quarter GDP.</p>
<p>The higher end of that forecast would leave Q1 at -0.1%.</p>
<p>And from Capital Economics' Paul Ashworth:</p>
<p style="padding-left: 60px;">To be fair, the BEA did assume in its initial estimate of first-quarter GDP that imports rebounded by as much as 5.6% m/m in March, so it wasn't that far off the actual 7.7% outturn. It also assumed that exports increased by 1.4%, although the actual outturn was a bit weaker at 0.9% m/m. Accordingly, the March trade data will require a downward revision to first-quarter GDP.<strong> The second estimate will show a decline rather than a 0.2% annualized increase, but it will be a pretty modest contraction of roughly 0.3%.</strong></p><p><a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/march-trade-deficit-turned-q1-gdp-negative-2015-5#comments">Join the conversation about this story &#187;</a></p> <p>NOW WATCH: <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/roar-filmed-with-100-untamed-lions-movie-injured-2015-4">70 people were injured while filming this movie with 100 untamed lions</a></p> http://www.businessinsider.com/port-strike-effect-on-trade-deficit-2015-2The West Coast port strike will squeeze the trade deficithttp://www.businessinsider.com/port-strike-effect-on-trade-deficit-2015-2
Wed, 25 Feb 2015 19:05:32 -0500Akin Oyedele
<p><img style="float:right;" src="http://static3.businessinsider.com/image/54ee6034eab8ea084da6b049-1200-924/shipping-california-2.jpg" border="0" alt="shipping, california"></p><p>Shipping companies and a powerful dock workers' union in West Coast ports reached a tentative deal last Friday after a nine-month slowdown.</p>
<p>In a note Tuesday, Goldman's Kris Dawsey wrote that although an agreement has been reached, shipments slowed in January, and likely February. The US international trade balance for January, out March 6, may send the trade deficit to its lowest level in a year.</p>
<p>"The case for a narrower trade deficit in January was already strong, in our view, given the suspicious jump in real petroleum imports in December and the continued drop in petroleum import prices through January," Dawsey wrote.&nbsp;</p>
<p><strong>"Adding in the effect of port disruptions, our preliminary forecast for January is a large $8.6bn improvement in</strong> <strong>the nominal trade deficit to -$38bn.</strong>"</p>
<p>Dawsey continued: "However, any 'benefit' from the smaller trade deficit will probably begin to reverse by the end of March, by which point substantial progress should have been made in processing through the backlog of ships waiting to unload at West Coast ports."</p>
<p>The <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/trade-balance-december-2015-2#ixzz3Snn4IkUj">trade deficit unexpectedly widened</a> by 17% to $46.6 billion in December, from $39.8 billion in November, and compared to a $38 billion forecast. That was the biggest deficit since November 2012.</p>
<p>Dawsey wrote that the slowdown could reduce first quarter GDP by two-tenths of a percentage point, although "the estimated effect is highly uncertain at this point in the quarter."</p>
<p>Meanwhile, Deutsche Bank forecast last week that the port slowdown could <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/west-coast-port-strike-hurts-gdp-2015-2">shave up to 1% off</a> Q1 GDP.</p>
<p>Via Goldman, here's a chart that shows the fall in the value of imports that came through three of the largest US ports in January.<br><br></p>
<p><img src="http://static4.businessinsider.com/image/54ee5b6d6bb3f7cf172538ba-875-543/screen shot 2015-02-25 at 6.28.44 pm.png" border="0" alt="Screen Shot 2015 02 25 at 6.28.44 PM"></p><p><a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/port-strike-effect-on-trade-deficit-2015-2#comments">Join the conversation about this story &#187;</a></p> http://www.businessinsider.com/colombias-trade-deficit-is-ballooning-2014-12Colombia's Trade Deficit Is Ballooninghttp://www.businessinsider.com/colombias-trade-deficit-is-ballooning-2014-12
Thu, 04 Dec 2014 18:13:52 -0500Portia Crowe
<p><img style="float:right;" src="http://static4.businessinsider.com/image/5480d508ecad041b260964d8-836-627/blowing-balloon.jpg" alt="blowing balloon" border="0"></p><p>The oil crash will hit Colombia hard.</p>
<p>The South American country was already in trouble before last month’s sudden drop in oil prices: as of September, the trade deficit had exploded to $449.6 million this year, up from $66.2 million in that period last year, <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/12/04/colombia-economy-fiscal-idUSL2N0TN2P020141204">Reuters reported</a>.</p>
<p>That’s an expansion of 579 percent, all other things being equal.</p>
<p>Oil exports are Colombia’s number one source of foreign exchange, according to Reuters. It's the fourth-largest oil producer in the region, the <a href="http://www.ft.com/intl/fastft/245521">Financial Times reported</a>, and crude makes up more than half of the country’s exports.</p>
<p>So the crash is likely to have harmful long-term effects.</p>
<p>The trade deficit was already up to 4.4 percent of GDP in the first half of this year,<span class="st"></span> from 3.4 percent last year,<span class="st"></span> Reuters reported, and it’s unlikely that the government’s 2.4 percent target will be met in 2015.</p>
<p>Colombia could also face a drop in foreign direct investment, as investors lose interest in oil projects there — or capital flight on expectations of higher interest rates to come, Reuters reported.</p>
<p>Analysts predict the government will begin issuing more external debt to help meet fiscal targets.</p>
<p>The 2015 budget does not account for a drop in oil prices below $98 per barrel, the FT reported. Right now prices are hovering closer to $70 per barrel.</p>
<p>It looks like the government will have to make some changes soon.</p><p><a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/colombias-trade-deficit-is-ballooning-2014-12#comments">Join the conversation about this story &#187;</a></p> http://www.businessinsider.com/analysts-raising-q4-gdp-predictions-2014-1Analysts Are Raising Their GDP Predictions After This Morning's Monster Trade Reporthttp://www.businessinsider.com/analysts-raising-q4-gdp-predictions-2014-1
Tue, 07 Jan 2014 10:25:03 -0500Steven Perlberg
<p><span style="line-height: 1.5em;"><img style="float:right;" src="http://static1.businessinsider.com/image/52cc1a026da8115b692e4215-480-/balloons-9.jpg" border="0" alt="balloons" width="480" />This morning we got the news that the </span><a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/us-trade-data-for-november-2013-2014-1">U.S. trade deficit has shrunk to its lowest level since October 2009</a><span style="line-height: 1.5em;">.</span></p>
<p>Oil imports fell 1.9%, helping the deficit shrink to $34.3 billion (economists were looking for the deficit to come in at $40 billion).</p>
<p>Now some of Wall Street's top analysts are revising their fourth quarter GDP predictions on the news.</p>
<p>"We revised up our Q4 GDP tracking forecast to 3.0% from 2.3% following November international trade data," Credit Suisse's Neal Soss wrote clients. "The quarter-to-date real goods deficit is tracking -$35bn (annual rate) narrower than the Q3 average, implying a&nbsp;significant net export contribution to fourth quarter growth."</p>
<p>Joseph LaVorgna of Deutsche Bank <a href="https://twitter.com/Lavorgnanomics/statuses/420553257183084544">pushed his shop's Q4 GDP call to 4.0%</a> after the report. High Frequency Economics' Jim O'Sullivan wrote clients, "A<span>s of now our our 2.5%&nbsp;</span><span>estimate for 4Q real GDP growth looks too low."</span></p>
<p><span><span>"The November trade data would suggest Q4 GDP growth is likely stronger than we expected," GMP Securities' Adrian Miller wrote. "Indeed, while we have previous forecasted a 2.0% Q4 growth rate following Q3&rsquo;s +4.1%, the trade data, unless offset in December could lift Q4 growth by 30bp to 40bp. Hence we are revising our Q4 estimate to 2.3%."</span></span></p><p><strong>SEE ALSO:&nbsp;<a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/krugman-and-the-economic-debate-of-2013-2014-1" >There's A Huge Economic Debate About 2013 — And Paul Krugman Is At The Center</a></strong></p>
<p><a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/analysts-raising-q4-gdp-predictions-2014-1#comments">Join the conversation about this story &#187;</a></p> http://www.businessinsider.com/economists-cut-gdp-after-trade-report-2013-11Economists Are Slashing Their US GDP Estimates This Morninghttp://www.businessinsider.com/economists-cut-gdp-after-trade-report-2013-11
Thu, 14 Nov 2013 10:13:00 -0500Rob Wile
<p><img style="float:right;" src="http://static2.businessinsider.com/image/526819dbecad048019d7351e-480-/trial-by-combat-medieval-sword-fight.jpg" border="0" alt="trial by combat medieval sword fight " width="480" /></p><p>Today's U.S. trade report was&nbsp; <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/september-trade-balance-2013-11">disappointing.</a></p>
<p>The deficit widened more than expected to -$41.8 billion in September, an 8% MOM increase. The consensus was for -$39 billion.</p>
<p class="p1">Exports declined by $0.4 billion. Imports climbed $2.7 billion.</p>
<p>As a result, analysts are saying this means Q3 GDP estimates need to come down.</p>
<p>The latest data translates to "a deterioration in the real trade in goods deficit to $50.4bn from $47.4bn, a weaker net trade position than the BEA had assumed in its initial estimate of Q3 GDP," writes Barclays' Peter Newland. "As a result, our Q3 GDP tracking estimate declined by 0.2pp to 2.6%."</p>
<p>Here's Newland's tracking table showing his current estimate based on available Q3 data:</p>
<p><img src="http://static2.businessinsider.com/image/5284ddaeecad042c654164dc-438-413/gdp 1.png" border="0" alt="gdp 1" /></p>
<p>Capital Economics' Paul Ashworth also revised down his Q3 GDP forecast, to 2.5%.</p>
<p style="padding-left: 30px;">"Looking at the assumptions the BEA made for trade when constructing the first estimate of third-quarter GDP, the statisticians were correct about imports, so that won't be revised. However, they were too optimistic about goods exports. They assumed a 4.7% q/q&nbsp;<span>annualised&nbsp;</span><span>gain when it actually came in at 2.4%. The upshot is that GDP growth should be revised down to about 2.5% in the second estimate, from the first estimate of 2.8%."</span></p>
<p>Not everyone was so gloomy. TD Securities' Millan Mulraine says the data is more a reflection of overseas weakness and a stronger dollar.</p>
<p style="padding-left: 30px;">"Despite the disappointing headline print, the underlying tone of this trade report paints a fairly encouraging picture on domestic activity, with the broad-based gains in imports reflecting continued buoyancy in domestic demand. However, the softening in export activity reinforces the narrative of an unsupportive global backdrop and reflects the drag on export activity from the strengthening US dollar".</p>
<p>The next big economic data point is the</p><p><strong>SEE ALSO:&nbsp;<a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/is-us-potential-gdp-in-structural-decline-2013-11" >Can The US Ever Grow Like It Used To?</a></strong></p>
<p><a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/economists-cut-gdp-after-trade-report-2013-11#comments">Join the conversation about this story &#187;</a></p> http://www.businessinsider.com/september-trade-balance-2013-11US TRADE DEFICIT HITS HIGHEST LEVEL IN MONTHShttp://www.businessinsider.com/september-trade-balance-2013-11
Thu, 14 Nov 2013 08:47:00 -0500Rob Wile
<p>The U.S. trade deficit <a href="http://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/data/">widened</a> more than expected in September, to $-41.8 billion, an increase of 8%.</p>
<p>It's the largest deficit in four months. Imports reached their highest level since November 2012. The import average price per barrel of oil, at $102, was the greatest since May 2012 (recall, however, that this data is two months old). Imports of cars and related parts reached a record.</p>
<p>Expectations were for a -$39.0 billion print, from a revised -$38.7 billion.</p>
<p>Analysts seem to be of two minds on the data.</p>
<p>But others are saying this is pointing to a downward revision in GDP.</p>
<p>"Looking at the assumptions the BEA made for trade when constructing the first estimate of third-quarter GDP, the statisticians were correct about imports, so that won't be revised," Capital Economics' Paul Ashworth said. "However, they were too optimistic about goods exports. They assumed a 4.7% q/q&nbsp;<span>annualised</span><span>gain when it actually came in at 2.4%. The upshot is that GDP growth should be revised down to about 2.5% in the second estimate, from the first estimate of 2.8%."</span></p>
<p>Here's the tale of the tape:</p>
<p><img src="http://static6.businessinsider.com/image/5284cd1cecad04b9434164dd-630-378/trade.png" border="0" alt="trade" /></p>
<p>Click here for updates &raquo;</p><p><strong>SEE ALSO:&nbsp;<a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/is-us-potential-gdp-in-structural-decline-2013-11" >Can The US Economy Ever Grow Like It Used To?</a></strong></p>
<p><a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/september-trade-balance-2013-11#comments">Join the conversation about this story &#187;</a></p> http://www.businessinsider.com/august-us-international-trade-data-2013-10America's Trade Deficit Widens Less Than Expectedhttp://www.businessinsider.com/august-us-international-trade-data-2013-10
Thu, 24 Oct 2013 08:20:00 -0400Rob Wile
<p><img style="float:right;" src="http://static4.businessinsider.com/image/526910676bb3f77270bc2517-480-/shipping-container-vessel-1.jpg" border="0" alt="shipping container vessel" width="480" /></p><p><span style="font-size: 15px; line-height: 1.5em;">America's trade deficit widened less than expected.</span></p>
<p>The gap grew to $38.8 billion, versus $39.4 billion expected.&nbsp;</p>
<p>Prior reading was revised to $38.6 billion.</p>
<p><span>"The upbeat survey evidence points to a pick-up on the growth rates of both exports and imports over the next few months, although the overall trade deficit should remain broadly unchanged, particularly if the most recent drop back in crude oil prices is sustained," Capital Economics commented. &nbsp;</span></p>
<p>The YOY balance has been slowly improving since 2012:</p>
<p><img src="http://static5.businessinsider.com/image/52690f4a6bb3f77f70bc2510-630-377/intl trade.png" border="0" alt="international trade" /></p>
<p><em>Click here for updates &raquo;</em></p><p><a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/august-us-international-trade-data-2013-10#comments">Join the conversation about this story &#187;</a></p> http://www.businessinsider.com/brazil-stocks-up-on-china-trade-data-2013-8Brazil Is Desperately Hoping Those Crazy China Trade Numbers Are Truehttp://www.businessinsider.com/brazil-stocks-up-on-china-trade-data-2013-8
Thu, 08 Aug 2013 15:19:00 -0400Linette Lopez
<p><img style="float:right;" src="http://static2.businessinsider.com/image/5203eb96eab8ea0a6d000001-480-/brazil-36.jpg" border="0" alt="brazil" width="480" /></p><p>Brazilians are probably blasting the celebratory samba music after last night's rosy <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/china-july-trade-grows-more-than-expected-2013-8">Chinese trade numbers </a>(if you believe in that sort of thing). Some of the country's&nbsp; most important stocks are up on the news after months of misery.</p>
<p>To review: China reported that exports jumped 5.1% year-over-year &mdash; stronger than the 2.0% economists expected &mdash; and imports surged 10.9%, surging past expectations for 1.0% growth.</p>
<p>That means relief for Brazil, whose stock market, Sao Paolo's Ibovespa, <a href="http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=^BVSP+Interactive#symbol=^bvsp;range=ytd;compare=;indicator=volume;charttype=area;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined;">has fallen 24% year to date.</a> The almost 300 publicly traded stocks in Brazil have lost $203 billion year to date.</p>
<p>This weekend, one of the country's former Central Bank Presidents, Arminio Fraga, said that decline was, in part, due to weakened <a href="http://blogs.wsj.com/moneybeat/2013/08/02/eike-batista-cant-be-blamed-for-brazils-stock-market-losses-ex-central-banker-fraga/">Chinese demand for Brazilian raw materials.</a></p>
<p>And today, on all that China trade number positivity, <a href="http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=PBR">the Ibovespa has gained 4.4%.</a> The iShares <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/blackboard/msci" class="hidden_link">MSCI</a> Brazil Index Fund (EWZ) &mdash; an ETF &mdash; that was getting <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/brazil-etf-falls-amid-protests-2013-6">pummeled earlier this summer during protests</a> is rallying too. <a href="http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=EWZ">It's up 3.5%</a></p>
<p>Over a quarter of EWZ's weight is made up by two stocks &mdash; <a href="http://finance.yahoo.com/q;_ylt=AmYiqceUBmfsdXmUnzOkelKG684F?uhb=uhb2&amp;fr=yfinanceheader_test2&amp;type=2button&amp;s=VALE%2C">Vale,&nbsp; a mining company</a> that sells a lot of iron ore to China, and <a href="http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=PBR">Petrobras, the state oil and gas company</a>. Both are rallying today up over 4.5%.</p>
<p>Now you may be saying to yourself &mdash; 4%... who cares? To put in perspective, both companies have had miserable 2013s. Petrobras is still <a href="http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=PBR+Interactive#symbol=pbr;range=ytd;compare=;indicator=volume;charttype=area;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined;">down 31% year to date</a>, and Vale is down <a href="http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=VALE+Interactive#symbol=vale;range=ytd;compare=;indicator=volume;charttype=area;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined;">34% year to date</a>.</p>
<p>So every little bit helps.</p><p><a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/brazil-stocks-up-on-china-trade-data-2013-8#comments">Join the conversation about this story &#187;</a></p> http://www.businessinsider.com/chinese-january-trade-data-preview-2013-2Why Everyone Will Ignore The Upcoming Chinese Trade Numbershttp://www.businessinsider.com/chinese-january-trade-data-preview-2013-2
Thu, 07 Feb 2013 19:15:00 -0500Mamta Badkar
<p><img style="float:right;" src="http://static2.businessinsider.com/image/5114435069bedde01800000a-400-300/china-cargo-1.jpg" border="0" alt="china cargo ship" width="400" height="300" /></p><p>December <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/december-chinese-trade-data-chart-2013-1">trade data surged past expectations</a>, with imports rising six percent and exports surging 14.1 percent on the year.</p>
<p>This time around analysts polled by <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/blackboard/bloomberg" class="hidden_link">Bloomberg</a> have really hiked up their forecasts.</p>
<p>They now expect imports to surge 23.5 percent, and exports to climb 17.5 percent on the year. Trade balance is expected to narrow to $24.7 billion.</p>
<p>Trade data is widely considered to be one of the <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/most-reliable-chinese-economic-indicators-2013-1">most reliable economic indicators</a> in China. And hard landing watchers <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/chinese-imports-hard-landing-watchers-2013-1">closely track import data</a> because it centers on investments and has a domestic demand component to it.</p>
<p>But seasonality is expected to be a huge factor behind the strong January trade numbers which is why analysts are warning about giving them too much weight.</p>
<p>"They could be heavily distorted by the [Chinese New Year] holidays (note there are 22 working days in Jan this year versus 17 in Jan last year)," writes Bank of America's Ting Lu in a note to clients.</p>
<p>"We also suggest investors to take a pinch of salt on the actual readings in these two months. A more sensible approach is to read Jan and Feb together, just as China&rsquo;s NBS does on major economic data such as IP and FAI." He is looking for exports to rise 26.5 percent and imports to rise 24.2 percent, above consensus.</p>
<p>Meanwhile Helen Qiao at <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/blackboard/morgan-stanley" class="hidden_link">Morgan Stanley</a> warns that as the effect of the Lunar New Year holidays wears off we should be "cautious on the outlook for an export growth recovery, especially in view of the sluggish growth in developed market economies."</p>
<p>Qiao is looking for exports to rise 16 percent year-over-year (YoY), imports to rise 18 percent, and for the trade surplus to narrow to $29 billion.</p>
<p>Meanwhile, China will also be releasing its inflation data in a few hours. Analysts polled by Bloomberg are look for consumer prices to rise 2 percent on the year, and for producer prices (PPI) to decline 1.6 percent. This comes right after the <a href="http://www.scmp.com/business/economy/article/1145149/inflation-likely-cast-pall-over-china-2013">People's Bank of China warned </a>that it would now prioritize curbing inflation. </p>
<p><strong>SEE ALSO: <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/chinese-stats-versus-rest-of-the-world-2013-2">10 Ways Chinese Manufacturing Makes The Rest Of The World Look Tiny &gt;</a></strong></p><p><a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/chinese-january-trade-data-preview-2013-2#comments">Join the conversation about this story &#187;</a></p> http://www.businessinsider.com/japans-eighties-america-buying-spree-2013-1The True Story Of The 1980s, When Everyone Was Convinced Japan Would Buy Americahttp://www.businessinsider.com/japans-eighties-america-buying-spree-2013-1
Fri, 18 Jan 2013 20:18:00 -0500Rob Wile
<p><img style="float:right;" src="http://static1.businessinsider.com/image/50f8875becad046b78000015-400-303/mcfly2.png" border="0" alt="mcfly back to the future"></p><p>The value of the Japanese dollar is falling again, now that new Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/japan-shinzo-abes-economic-experiment-2013-1">pledged to reinflate the country by instructing the country's central bank to make asset purchases.</a></p>
<p>It's now pretty inconceivable that a Japanese company would be able to snap up American corporate assets as investments. &nbsp;</p>
<p>In the eighties, it was a fact of life.</p>
<p>Starting with a relative trickle at the beginning of the decade, Japanese conglomerates went on an epic buying spree in America during the latter half of the decade after both countries agreed to revalue their currencies.</p>
<p class="p1">The trend became so widespread that the "corporate Japanese takeover" concept began leaking into American culture. &nbsp;</p>
<p class="p1">Via Google News, we now take you on a tour of this singular moment in the life of both countries...</p><h3>It started out innocently enough — for instance, some Japanese automakers coming over to put American parts in their cars.</h3>
<img src="http://static2.businessinsider.com/image/50f5bd85eab8ea3d4b00000e-400-300/it-started-out-innocently-enough--for-instance-some-japanese-automakers-coming-over-to-put-american-parts-in-their-cars.jpg" alt="" />
<br/><br/><h3>Meanwhile, American firms like Motorola were still finding Japanese buyers for their products — including beepers.</h3>
<img src="http://static3.businessinsider.com/image/50f86518eab8ea9546000001-400-300/meanwhile-american-firms-like-motorola-were-still-finding-japanese-buyers-for-their-products--including-beepers.jpg" alt="" />
<br/><br/><h3>But the country's influence was starting to be felt — not just in America's cosmopolitan corners, as this article noted, but even in Texas, Arkansas and Mississippi, whose museums now featured Japanese exhibitions.</h3>
<img src="http://static6.businessinsider.com/image/50f5bd89ecad04bf35000001-400-300/but-the-countrys-influence-was-starting-to-be-felt--not-just-in-americas-cosmopolitan-corners-as-this-article-noted-but-even-in-texas-arkansas-and-mississippi-whose-museums-now-featured-japanese-exhibitions.jpg" alt="" />
<br/><br/><a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/japans-eighties-america-buying-spree-2013-1#then-the-trend-got-real-with-a-conglomerate-purchasing-a-steel-company-wholly-owned-by-ford-4">See the rest of the story at Business Insider</a> http://www.businessinsider.com/the-trade-balance-2013-1Trade Deficit Comes In Way Wider Than Expected At $48.7 Billionhttp://www.businessinsider.com/the-trade-balance-2013-1
Fri, 11 Jan 2013 08:35:00 -0500Joe Weisenthal
<p><img style="float:right;" src="http://static2.businessinsider.com/image/504f7a12eab8ea4a51000002-335-251/china-shio.jpg" border="0" alt="china ship cargo" width="335" height="251" /></p><p></p>
<p>UPDATE:</p>
<p>Big number on the trade deficit.</p>
<p>In November, the trade deficit came in at $48.7 billion.</p>
<p>That's well wider than the $41.8 billion that was expected.</p>
<p>The full report can be found <a href="http://www.census.gov/indicator/www/ustrade.html">here</a>.</p>
<p>-------------------------------</p>
<p>EARLIER: The one big economic datapoint of the day: The trade balance.</p>
<p>Analysts are expecting a trade deficit of $41.8 billion, which is a slight narrowing of $42.2 billion that was last month.</p>
<p>Remember, the wider the trade deficit, the worst it is for GDP, but on the other hand, the wider the trade deficit, the more trade and economic activity there is typically. So it cuts both ways.</p>
<p>We'll have the number here LIVE at 8:30 AM ET.</p><p><a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/the-trade-balance-2013-1#comments">Join the conversation about this story &#187;</a></p> http://www.businessinsider.com/trade-balance-2012-10The New US Trade Data Points To An Economy In Declinehttp://www.businessinsider.com/trade-balance-2012-10
Thu, 11 Oct 2012 19:37:00 -0400Lance Roberts
<p style="text-align: left;">I recently penned an article entitled <a href="http://www.streettalklive.com/daily-x-change/1236-3-major-risks-to-the-4th-quarter.html">"3 Major Risks To The 4th Quarter"</a> wherein we discussed the impact of the Eurozone recession, and slowdown in China, on the domestic economy. &nbsp;In it we stated <em>"The continued recessionary drag across the Eurozone is dampening revenues and slowing demand for exports from the U.S. &nbsp;Recent corporate reports from key transportation related companies have all warned of weaker outlooks due to slowdowns in the Eurozone."</em></p>
<p style="text-align: left;">The chart below was presented recently by the <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/blackboard/frederick-smith" class="hidden_link">Frederick Smith</a>, the President and CEO of <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/blackboard/fedex" class="hidden_link">FedEx</a> Corp., which shows the clearly negative trends in the year-over-year exports including the U.S. &nbsp;</p>
<p style="text-align: left;"><a href="http://www.streettalklive.com/images/stories/1offthestreet/Fedex-Exportslide-101012.jpg" target="_blank" title="Fedex-Exportslide-101012" class="highslide ageent-ru"><img src="http://static5.businessinsider.com/image/5075ec6decad048457000013-1106-617/lance-roberts.jpg?maxX=610" border="0" alt="lance roberts" width="610" /></a></p>
<p style="text-align: left;">These very negative trends are important to understand because it is the source of revenue for businesses worldwide. &nbsp;As consumer demand slows it reduces the need for production ultimately reducing profitability. &nbsp;Furthermore, this delcline in production and consumption leads to higher unemployment, lower incomes and ultimately an economic recession. &nbsp;Domestically, exports are more crucially important than ever as they now comprise more than 13% of GDP and 40% of corporate profits.</p>
<p style="text-align: left;"><a href="http://www.streettalklive.com/images/stories/1dailyxchange/gdp-not-your-fathers-economy-091112.png" target="_blank" title="gdp-not-your-fathers-economy-091112" class="highslide ageent-ru"><img src="http://static6.businessinsider.com/image/506ba79c6bb3f7ca4b00000e-891-575/lance-roberts.png" border="0" alt="lance roberts" width="610" /></a></p>
<p style="text-align: left;">Historically, when exports have turned down the economy was either in, or slipping into, a recession. &nbsp;The recent drop in <a href="http://www.streettalklive.com/daily-x-change/1228-gdp-and-durable-goods-heading-to-recession.html">durable goods orders</a> and <a href="http://www.streettalklive.com/daily-x-change/1229-second-recession-horseman-goes-down.html">industrial production</a> have been clear warnings that this could already be in the works. &nbsp;</p>
<p style="text-align: left;">Today's release of the trade data provides further recessionary warning signs. &nbsp;In August, the U.S. trade balance worsened as exports declined reflecting economic weakness in Europe and slower growth in Asia. &nbsp;Also, oil and petroleum product imports jumped on higher prices due to a weaker US Dollar.</p>
<p style="text-align: left;">The trade deficit expanded to $44.2 billion from $42.5 billion in July (originally $42.0 billion). &nbsp;<strong>Exports fell 1.0 percent, following a 1.1 percent decrease in July</strong>. Imports slipped 0.1 percent after a 0.6 percent dip the prior month. &nbsp;The decline in exports was again was led by a decline in industrial supplies, foods, feeds &amp; beverages with minor slippage in autos and consumer goods. &nbsp;None of this data is good for corporate earnings heading into the 4th quarter particularly as higher oil prices impact consumer demand.</p>
<p style="text-align: left;">Furthermore, this data is clear evidence as to why businesses are remaining cautious about equipment investment as demand for consumer goods, and capital goods excluding autos, continue to weaken. &nbsp;The decline in consumer goods leads to concerns about future demand putting businesses on the defensive which was clearly evidenced in our recent report on the <a href="http://www.streettalklive.com/daily-x-change/1250-nfib-small-businesses-dont-agree-with-bls.html">NFIB Survey</a>: <em>"The ongoing problem remains 'poor sales'&nbsp;<strong>which is the driver for all other business actions from increased capital expenditures to future employment.</strong> </em></p>
<p style="text-align: left;"><em>From the report: '<strong>Weak sales continue to be an albatross for the small-business community.</strong> The net percent of all owners (seasonally adjusted) reporting higher nominal sales over the past three months was unchanged at a negative 13 percent, cementing the 17 point decline since April and affirming weak GDP growth for the second quarter. <strong>Twenty-one (21) percent still cite weak sales as their top business problem</strong>&mdash;historically high, but down from the record 34 percent reached in March 2010.</em></p>
<p style="text-align: left;"><em><strong>Consumer spending remains weak and high energy costs continue to 'tax' consumer disposable income.</strong> The net percent of owners expecting higher real sales was unchanged at one percent of all owners (seasonally adjusted), down 11 points from the year high of net 12 percent in February. <strong>The weak reading is unlikely to trigger orders for new inventory or business expansion.</strong> Not seasonally adjusted, 24 percent expect improvement over the next three months (down 4 points) and 31 percent expect declines (up 3 points).'</em></p>
<p style="text-align: left;">The chart below shows capital expenditure plans versus future expectations about the economy. The importance here is that companies are primarily spending on maintenance of plants, property and equipment rather than expansion and upgrades. In the most recent report only 34% reported spending on new equipment which was down 7 points from August. Only 16% acquired vehicles - a decline of 5 points, and just 14% improved or expanded facilities which remained unchanged from the previous report. Overall, there was a substantial reduction in capital spending activity with the percent of owners planning capital outlays in the next three to six months falling 3 points to 21%.</p>
<p style="text-align: left;"><a href="http://www.streettalklive.com/images/stories/1dailyxchange/NFIB-CapEx-Economy-100912.PNG" target="_blank" title="NFIB-CapEx-Economy-100912" class="highslide ageent-ru"><img src="http://static2.businessinsider.com/image/5077554a6bb3f7d45f00000b-808-485/lance-roberts.png" border="0" alt="lance roberts" width="610" /></a></p>
<p style="text-align: left;">The outlook, and ultimately actions taken, by businesses are driven by demand for their products, goods and services. &nbsp;Unfortunately the Fed's bond buying program does not impact these core issues.</p>
<p style="text-align: left;">However, what QE programs do have an impact on is the value of the dollar relative to other currencies. &nbsp;Historically, the dollar has declined during stimulus programs as money is pulled out of safehaven investments and moved into risk assets such as commodity and stock markets. During the third quarter as the markets advanced in expectation of the Fed's announcement of QE3 - the dollar declined sharply. &nbsp;Therefore, as shown in the chart below, the recent increase in the trade deficit occured as stated <a href="http://www.streettalklive.com/daily-x-change/1194-trade-deficit-exports-a-major-concern.html">in our last report</a>. &nbsp;<em>"The continuation of the Eurocrisis has created a capital flight into the US dollar for 'safety.'&nbsp;However, since July, the strong dollar trend has reversed on the announcement by the ECB 'do whatever is necessary'&nbsp;to save the Eurozone. Therefore, the trade deficit will increase in the next couple of months as the dollar weakens making imports more expensive for already cash strapped consumers."</em></p>
<p style="text-align: left;"><a href="http://www.streettalklive.com/images/stories/1dailyxchange/Trade-deficit-101112.PNG" target="_blank" title="Trade-deficit-101112" class="highslide ageent-ru"><img src="http://static1.businessinsider.com/image/5077555eeab8ea9b23000010-662-959/lance-roberts.png" border="0" alt="lance roberts" width="610" /></a></p>
<p style="text-align: left;"><strong>Trade Deficit Points To A Recession?</strong></p>
<p style="text-align: left;">The overall backdrop from the trade report does not bode well for a reversal of fortune for corporations domestically. &nbsp;The increase in the deficit will subtract from GDP in the coming quarter, as shown in the chart above, as Net Exports are a part of the GDP calculation. &nbsp;The issues is that with the economy currently growing at an already very weak 1.25% in Q2 - there simply isn't much wiggle room between growth and contraction.</p>
<p style="text-align: left;">The risk to the current expectations of continued growth in 2013 is that the annualized rate of growth in both imports and exports is not supportive of those expectations. &nbsp;With exports now making up such a large percentage of GDP, and imports reflecting a weak consumer, the implications are for further weakness in GDP. The chart below shows the year-over-year change in imports and exports. Historically speaking, when both imports and exports have declined in unison it has indicated the onset of a recession. With the current decline in both imports and exports close to going negative the outlook is worrisome.</p>
<p style="text-align: left;"><a href="http://www.streettalklive.com/images/stories/1dailyxchange/Trade-deficit-imports-exports-GDP-101112.PNG" target="_blank" title="Trade-deficit-imports-exports-GDP-101112" class="highslide ageent-ru"><img src="http://static3.businessinsider.com/image/5077557269beddd57d00000b-998-539/lance-roberts.png" border="0" alt="lance roberts" width="610" /></a></p>
<p style="text-align: left;">The recent trade report does not provide much support for the economic and stock market bulls. As we have stated many times - the current fundamental and economic backdrops are not supportive of higher asset prices at current levels. &nbsp;However, while the market may advance due to the injections of liquidity into the financial system - it doesn't make it a <em>"healthy"</em> market.</p><p><a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/trade-balance-2012-10#comments">Join the conversation about this story &#187;</a></p> http://www.businessinsider.com/us-july-trade-balance-2012-9US Trade Deficit Hits $42 Billion In Julyhttp://www.businessinsider.com/us-july-trade-balance-2012-9
Tue, 11 Sep 2012 08:30:00 -0400Eric Platt
<p><img style="float:right;" src="http://static5.businessinsider.com/image/5000807eecad04dc0d000010-400-/italy-port-shipping-containers-economy-manufacturing-boat-expansion.jpg" border="0" alt="Italy Port Shipping Containers Economy Manufacturing Boat Expansion" width="400" /></p><p><strong>UPDATE:</strong></p>
<p>The U.S. trade deficit narrowed from a year earlier but widened from the previous month as both imports and exports declined in July, <a href="http://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/Press-Release/current_press_release/ft900.pdf">new data from the Census Bureau shows</a>.</p>
<p>During the month, the country exported some $183.3 billion worth of goods while imports totaled $225.3 billion.</p>
<p>At that rate, the trade deficit declined to $42.0 billion from $45.6 billion a year earlier.</p>
<p>The revised June 2011 report showed a trade deficit of $41.9 billion.</p>
<p><strong>ORIGINAL:</strong></p>
<p>Minutes away from the next big data release of the day: the U.S. Trade Balance.</p>
<p>Economists polled by <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/blackboard/bloomberg" class="hidden_link">Bloomberg</a> forecast the trade deficit worsened in July from a month earlier, at -$44.0 billion.</p>
<p>If that holds, it would represent some improvement from the year earlier period.</p>
<p>The report is expected at 8:30 a.m.</p><p><a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/us-july-trade-balance-2012-9#comments">Join the conversation about this story &#187;</a></p> http://www.businessinsider.com/dont-be-happy-about-that-shrinking-trade-deficit-2012-8Don't Be Happy About That Shrinking Trade Deficithttp://www.businessinsider.com/dont-be-happy-about-that-shrinking-trade-deficit-2012-8
Thu, 09 Aug 2012 10:35:57 -0400Joe Weisenthal
<p>Earlier today we got the latest trade deficit number for the US in June.</p>
<p>The trade deficit came in at $42.9 billion vs. expectations of $47.5 billion. It's also below the previous month's $48 billion.</p>
<p>Theoretically that's "good" because the trade deficit gets subtracted from GDP.</p>
<p>But as we've pointed out before, it's not good because historically big trade deficits are associated with periods of more growth (It makes sense. More trade = more economic activity).</p>
<p>This chart shows year-over-year GDP change (blue line) vs.&nbsp; the trade deficit (red line). When the trade deficit is going down, GDP does too.</p>
<p>So you shouldn't like that decline in the red line representing the last month.</p>
<p><img src="http://static6.businessinsider.com/image/5023c9e4ecad04ad43000017/image.jpg" border="0" alt="image" /></p><p><a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/dont-be-happy-about-that-shrinking-trade-deficit-2012-8#comments">Join the conversation about this story &#187;</a></p> http://www.businessinsider.com/us-june-trade-balance-2012-8US Trade Balance Shrinks More Than Expectedhttp://www.businessinsider.com/us-june-trade-balance-2012-8
Thu, 09 Aug 2012 08:30:00 -0400Rob Wile
<p><span><img style="float:right;" src="http://static4.businessinsider.com/image/4ec3d7036bb3f74569000014/surface-transportation-board-handshake.jpg" border="0" alt="surface transportation board handshake" />The U.S. trade balance shrank to $42.9 billion in June <span>as exports increased and imports decreased</span>.</span></p>
<p><span>Economists polled by&nbsp;</span><a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/blackboard/bloomberg" class="hidden_link">Bloomberg</a><span>&nbsp;forecast the U.S. trade&nbsp;</span><span>gap to shrink to $47.5 billion, from $48.7 billion a month earlier.</span></p>
<p>June exports of goods and services ($185.0 billion) and exports of goods ($132.8 billion) were the highest on record.</p>
<p>June exports of automotive vehicles, parts, and engines ($12.9 billion) were the highest on record.</p>
<p><a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/us-june-trade-balance-2012-8"><strong>Click here for updates &gt;</strong></a></p>
<p><span><br /></span></p><p><a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/us-june-trade-balance-2012-8#comments">Join the conversation about this story &#187;</a></p> http://www.businessinsider.com/us-april-trade-deficit-2012-6US Trade Deficit Misses Expectations, Falls To -$50.1 Billionhttp://www.businessinsider.com/us-april-trade-deficit-2012-6
Fri, 08 Jun 2012 08:30:00 -0400Eric Platt
<p><img style="float:right;" src="http://static6.businessinsider.com/image/4f83b2dcecad046027000004-400-/shipping-containers.jpg" border="0" alt="shipping containers" width="400" /></p><p><strong>UPDATE:</strong></p>
<p>The U.S. trade deficit fell $2.5 billion in April to $50.1 billion, missing expectations, new data out of the Census Bureau shows.</p>
<p><a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/us-april-trade-deficit-2012-6"><strong>Click here for updates &gt;</strong></a></p>
<p>Exports declined $1.5 billion month-on-month to $182.9 billion. Imports fell at a steeper rate, down $4.1 billion to $233 billion.&nbsp;</p>
<p>The Bureau attributed lower exports to weakness in capital goods and industrial supplies, offset by gains in autos and food.</p>
<p>The Census Bureau revised the <a href="http://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/Press-Release/current_press_release/ft900.pdf">March deficit $800 million higher</a>, to $52.6 billion.</p>
<p>Below, a look at the deficit over the past few years.</p>
<p><img src="http://static6.businessinsider.com/image/4fd1f2106bb3f75866000006/chart.png" border="0" alt="Chart" /></p>
<p><strong>ORIGINAL:</strong></p>
<p>Minutes away from the first of two key data points this Friday: the U.S. trade balance.</p>
<p>Economists polled by <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/blackboard/bloomberg" class="hidden_link">Bloomberg</a> forecast the U.S. ran a $49.5 billion deficit in April, $2.3 billion below March's imbalance.</p>
<p>The report will be announced at 8:30 a.m. ET.</p><p><a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/us-april-trade-deficit-2012-6#comments">Join the conversation about this story &#187;</a></p>