"A heavier than normal Republican turnout upstate will likely hand the nomination to Paladino, who leads upstate 53-32 percent, while a heavier than normal downstate suburban turnout will likely make Lazio the Republican nominee, as he leads there 55-30 percent," he said. "Lazio also leads 53-33 percent in New York City, which traditionally produces a smaller vote than any region in a Republican primary."

The poll also found Paladino more popular and palatable to voters associating themselves with the Tea Party movement, a political bloc that has provided energy this year but is untested in getting out the vote.

Paladino's campaign claimed this was a signal of momentum.

"Carl Paladino has closed a near 40-point gap. This will surely be a close race down to the wire," said Paladino campaign manager Michael Caputo. "In close races, the candidate with the money, message, momentum and moxie wins the day. In this close race, that candidate is clearly Carl Paladino."

Lazio had been leading Paladino by double digits until now, and the poll found more Republicans preferred Lazio's leadership style. They believed he would win, too.

"With the fractious divide in the western New York Tea Party movement with his own supporters now realizing that Carl is a lifelong contributor to Democrats such as Hillary Clinton, Chuck Schumer and David Paterson along with Carl's unexplained erratic behavior; simply makes him unfit for office," Lazio spokesman Barney Keller said in some of his most direct criticism of Paladino to date. "Voters are not going to let Carl Paladino rent the Republican line just to throw the election to Andrew Cuomo."

Schneiderman's camp claimed this as proof of the effect of a surge in endorsements in recent weeks. Coffey supporters said voters shouldn't put much stock in polls.

The data, released Saturday, were collected in two polls conducted Tuesday through Thursday in calls to 1,225 likely primary voters. Greenberg said voters were asked a series of questions and must have voted in a recent primary.