Welcome to the new Nedgroup Investments web site

Are you a:

South African resident

Resident from a country other than South Africa

Resident from Switzerland

LogoThe Nedgroup Investments logo.

Disclaimer

The financial services, products or investments referred to on this website are not available to persons resident in jurisdictions where their availability or distribution would contravene local laws or regulations and the information on this website is not intended for use by these persons. This website is for information only and does not in any way constitute a solicitation or offer by Nedgroup Investments Proprietary Limited, Nedgroup Investments (IOM) Limited or any of their associates or subsidiaries (collectively “Nedgroup Investments”) to buy or sell any financial products or to provide any investment advice or service.

Nedgroup Investments uses third party cookies to improve website users online experience. By looking at and understanding users browsing preferences we are able to provide content that is most relevant.

By clicking the ‘I agree’ button below I hereby confirm that:

(a) I have read and understand the above; and
(b) The laws of my home jurisdiction does not prohibit the communication of the information contained in this website; and
(c) I am not acting for the benefit of any such persons mentioned in (b); and
(d) Any investment with Nedgroup Investments is based on my own initiative and not due to any offer or solicitation by Nedgroup Investments.
(e) I have read and accept the use of all cookies in accordance with Nedgroup Investments Privacy Policy and Cookie Policy.

LogoThe Nedgroup Investments logo.

Cookie Policy

This policy describes the type of information collected by cookies used on the Nedgroup Investments public website (www.nedgroupinvestments.com) ‘the website’ and what that data is being used for. By continuing to browse the website you are agreeing to use our cookies.

What about cookies?
A cookie is a small data file that is essential for the proper functioning of the website. Cookies do not retrieve information about you stored on your hard drive, or corrupt or damage your computer or computer files.

How do we use cookies on this website?
The cookie settings on the website are set to “allow all cookies” to give you the best user experience. When you visit the website cookies will be transferred to your computer's hard drive through your browser. These cookies are completely safe and secure and will never contain any sensitive information.

We use the following cookies:

Session cookies (or ‘strictly necessary’ cookies) are automatically generated and we do not have control over it.These cookies are needed to make the website service work and include, for example, cookies that enable you to log into secure areas of the website.

Analytical cookies. They allow us to recognise and count the number of website users and to see how visitors are using the website. This helps us to improve the way the website works, for example, by ensuring that users are finding what they are looking for easily.

We use Google Analytics and Adobe Analytics to monitor website usage. Data collected via Adobe Analytics are used to generate internal reports. These reports are for internal purposes only and are not shared with external parties.

Demographic data cookies. Regional information about the user such as country code and city are collected. The IP address of the website user is used to check location but we don’t store it in the cookie.

Demographic cookies are also used to generate internal reports to better understand user behavior. These reports are for internal purposes only and are not shared with external parties. Examples of demographic data cookies include isoCode, urrentCity and Preflocation.

Social Media data. We use a facebook page to promote campaigns. In order for this service to work, a script, in other words a line of code has been included within the website as requested by our 3rd party vendor Flume.

Site security data. These cookies are used as an anti-forgery method to prevent cyber attacks. An example of anti-forgery cookie is RequestVerificationToken.

Site performance data. These cookies are used to monitor the performance of the site and detect anomalies. An example of a site performance cookie is ai_user, c_user.

LogoThe Nedgroup Investments logo.

Privacy Policy

The website is shared by Nedgroup Investments Proprietary Limited and Nedgroup Investments (IOM) Limited (collectively “Nedgroup Investments”) and is administered from South Africa by Nedgroup Investments Proprietary Limited.

Nedgroup Investments Proprietary Limited are considered to be the data controller of information generated by the website except in the instances where you register and use Nedgroup Investments (IOM) Limited’s secure portal or submit enquiries to them via the website. In these cases only, Nedgroup Investments (IOM) Limited will be the controller of your data.

This policy provides you with information about why and how we use your data, and about the rights you have over your data.

If you have any questions about this policy or do not agree with it, please contact us before using the website.

By using any part of the website or providing personal information to Nedgroup Investments you acknowledge the processing of your personal information as set out in this policy.

General principles
Nedgroup Investments is committed to keeping your information private. By 'your information' we mean any information about you that you or third parties provide to us. This policy relates to the privacy of your information at the website.

When you use our website
When you use our website a number of cookies are used by us to allow the website to function, to collect useful information about visitors and to help to make your user experience better.

Some of the cookies we use are strictly necessary for our website to function, and we don’t ask for your consent to place these on your computer.

However, for those cookies that are useful but not strictly necessary we will always ask for your consent before placing them.

For more information about our use of cookies, please see our cookie policy.

In general, you can use the website without giving us any information. Any domain name information that we collect is not used to personally identify you but is instead aggregated to measure the number of visits, average time spent on the website and pages viewed. We use this information to measure the use of our website and to improve its contents.

When you submit an enquiry via our website
When you submit an enquiry via the ‘Contact Us’ sections of our website, you supply us with your name, your email address and the detail of your enquiry.

We use this information to respond to your query, which includes providing you with any requested information about our products. We may also email you several times after your enquiry in order to follow up on your interest and ensure that we have answered it to your satisfaction.

Your enquiry is processed via your chosen office being the Isle of Man (International), Cape Town, Durban or Johannesburg and they will be retained in the same location.

We do not use the information you provide to make any automated decisions.

When you subscribe to our newsletter
Where you have subscribed to our newsletter for quarterly updates on the investment industry, we will use this information only for the intended purpose. We will not use it for additional marketing purposes, nor will we share it with any other third parties.

You may unsubscribe from this newsletter at any point online or by contacting our Cape Town office who are responsible for its administration.

When completing our online forms
When completing any online forms, we will tell you how your information will be used in relation to the product or service you’re applying for, within the form and in any associated terms and conditions.

Where you provide information about others (for example, for joint accounts or if you are ‘recommending a friend’) you must ensure that you have their authorisation or are otherwise entitled to provide this information to us.

Security
We will ensure we have appropriate physical and technological security measures to protect your information regardless of where it is held.

We will ensure that when we outsource any processes, the supplier has appropriate security measures in place and will contractually require them to comply with these privacy principles.

We will ensure that suitable safeguards are in place before personal information is transferred to other countries.

Retention
We will only retain your information for as long as we need it, given the purpose for which it was collected, or as required by law and any other statutory obligations, including anti-money laundering, counter-terrorism, tax legislation. Your information may be retained for a maximum of 6 years from the end of our relationship; however some of it will be retained for less than this. We will take all reasonable steps to destroy or erase the data from its systems when it is no longer required.

Your right to complain
If you have a complaint about our use of your information, we would prefer you to contact us directly in the first instance so that we can address your complaint.

Updates to this privacy policy
We regularly review and, if appropriate, update this privacy policy from time to time, and as our services and use of personal data evolves. If we want to make use of your personal data in a way that we haven’t previously identified, we will contact you to provide information about this and, if necessary, to ask for your consent.

The Nedgroup Investments website utilises cookies. By closing this message, you consent to our cookies in accordance with our Cookie Policy.

From intense emotions to hard numbers

By JP Landman

During revelations from the state capture and SARS enquiries, news of recession, the drama of expropriation without compensation, and rumours of plots to get rid of President Ramaphosa, it is good to turn our gaze away from the dust and commotion of South African politics. Let’s focus on some hard numbers – the official mid-year population estimates published by StatsSA. It is arguably one of the most important sets of numbers in our national calendar.

Population growth

On 1 July this year the South African population was estimated at 57,7 million people. Population growth is estimated at 1,55% a year. Four factors drive this number: lower fertility, higher immigration, lower mortalities and longer life expectancies.

Fertility rate

The main driver of population growth is the fertility rate, or the number of children born per woman. It has dropped consistently from 6,4 in the 1950s to 5,8 in the 1970s to 2,4 in 2018. Common observation confirms this – very few women today would have five or six children. Two or three is more often the norm. It is a significant decline. Replacement level fertility, the rate at which a population will remain constant, is about 2,33 children per woman (it varies between developed and developing countries). At 2,40, South Africa is not far from this. One would therefore expect our population growth rate to be very low. However, other factors, such as higher immigration and lower mortality, drive it up.

Immigration

Most of the population growth is of course due to South Africans having babies, but a full 17% – one in every six new people in South Africa – comes from immigration into the country. StatsSA estimates the net migration into the country at 203 000 people a year. That is 23 per hour, or one immigrant every 2,6 minutes.

South Africa is clearly becoming an ever more diverse and cosmopolitan society, causing xenophobic strains and tensions as demonstrated by the sporadic outbursts of violence against foreigners. South Africa is not escaping the polarising effect of immigration that we see in Europe, the United Kingdom and the United States (although the political manifestation here is different).

Mortality

Infant mortality improved from 43,7 deaths per 1 000 live births 10 years ago, to 36,4 now. In 2002, 16 years ago, the mortality rate was even higher at 53,2. The under-five mortality rate shows an even bigger decline, from 80,1 per 1 000 live births in 2002 to 45 in 2018. These are significant and sustained improvements. Also, the total number of deaths, including Aids-related deaths, has declined since a high point in 2006.

Life expectancy

The upshot of all this is that the most critical indicator of health and social welfare, life expectancy, has now increased to 61,1 years for males and 67,3 years for females. Ten years ago, it was 53,8 for males and 58,1 for females. This is an astonishing turnaround.

Demography and economics

Just to maintain income levels the economy should grow at least at the same pace as the population, which would equate to growth of 1,55% this year. Given South Africa’s current poverty, unemployment and inequality, income levels for many citizens are already way too low. To reduce poverty and inequality the economy should be growing at a significantly faster rate than the population. However, as pointed out before, South Africa has now been in a ‘demographic recession’ since 2015 where economic growth has lagged population growth. This year will be the fourth year of this ‘demographic recession’. Per capita incomes are now about 1% lower than in 2014. With this month’s news of an economic recession, it will probably decline by another 1% in 2018. Stagnant or declining incomes (except for the fortunate 10% or so) has dire consequences. Over the 70 years for which we have data, South Africa has managed to increase per capita incomes by an average of 1,2% a year. Maintaining this requires economic growth of close to 3% a year.

Demography and employment

Traditionally, the age group of 15 to 64 is regarded as the working-age population of a country. It is a bit of a stretch as many youngsters of 15 are not yet looking for a job, while many people stop working at around age 60 or soon thereafter. Nevertheless, 15 to 64 is generally used.

There are 37,5 million people in this age group in South Africa. We know from the quarterly labour force survey that 16,3 million of them are working; 8,9 million are unemployed or discouraged work seekers; and 12,6 million are not economically active. This means that the employed population as a proportion of the total working-age population is 43%. The unemployed and discouraged, combined, form 24%. Those who aren’t economically active make up the remaining 34%. It is misleading to count the 12,6 million people who are not economically active as ‘unemployed’. This group will include students, homemakers, fulltime mothers, and so on. Nevertheless, there is general agreement that 43% employed is too low for a country such as South Africa. This number will have to increase significantly to reduce poverty, unemployment and inequality.

At 1,55% growth, we are adding about 900 000 people to the population every year. Merely maintaining that 43% employment rate would require close to 400 000 jobs per year (43% of 900 000). Over the past 12 months, we created about 200 000 jobs and over the past 10 years, 2,6 million. Sure, that helps to broaden the economic base and to create more consumers and taxpayers, but it is not enough to reduce poverty, unemployment and inequality.

Looking back a century

It is useful to take the long view and look back over time. At the time of South Africa’s first census in 1911, the total population was just short of six million people, at 5 972 000. Today, 107 years later, there are 57,7 million – almost 10 times more. Over that time, black people increased about 11,5 times, coloureds and Asians/Indians 9,5 times and whites 3,5 times. In 1911 black people made up 67% of the total population, whites 21%, coloureds 9%, and Asians/Indians 3%. Today those proportions are roughly black Africans 81%, whites 8%, coloureds 9% and Asians/Indians 2,5%. (Since we are in the middle of the land debates, one cannot but wonder how the rulers of 1913 could have thought that 67% of the population could be restricted to 13% of the land…?!)

So What?

The decline in the fertility rate demolishes the argument that social grants encourage more births. Fertility has declined despite the massive increase in social grants. Clearly something else is at work. Urbanisation; access to basic education, medical services, and the labour market; and changing perceptions about work, women and their place in society all play a role.

Immigration now makes up 17% (or one in six people) of South Africa’s population growth. Like other countries, we will have to get better at absorbing and integrating foreigners.

Mortality rates have improved across the board, resulting in considerably longer life expectancies.

South Africa is now in the fourth year of a ‘demographic recession’ – per capita incomes are lower than they were in 2014, which explains a lot of the economic stress and pain the country is experiencing.

About 43% of South Africans between the ages of 15 and 64 are working, 24% are unemployed or discouraged work seekers, and 34% are not economically active. Clearly the 43% group must get bigger.

There are about 10 times more people in South Africa today than when the Union of South Africa was formed in 1910. One can sympathise with the veteran town councillor of 35 years’ service who said of his hometown in Mpumalanga, ‘We simply do not have the money to provide for all the (increased numbers of) people’.

These numbers simply underline the importance of getting the economy going again. Nothing is more important.

Article highlights

The decline in the fertility rate demolishes the argument that social grants encourage more births

Immigration now makes up 17% (or one in six people) of South Africa’s population growth

There are about 10 times more people in South Africa today than when the Union of South Africa was formed in 1910