World Families Forums - R1b, R1a, and IE with a special focus on China!

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The distributions of m269 and m73 are very interesting in that each of them lies near the periphery of the Indo-European (IE) world. Stretching across a vast expanse of Eurasia we find m269, concentrated in Western Europe, and m73 primarily found in Central Asia, whereby both regions have historically been inhabited by Indo-Europeans. What is especially peculiar about their distribution is the extreme lack of geographic continuity between the two haplogroups. There exists an ocean of steppe land, and a bit more, separating the bulk of m269 and the bulk of m73. But given how closely related the two haplogroups are, they, or their intermediate forms, must have formed a geographic continuum at some point in the not so distant past. This leads us to some basic questions concerning the history of this pair. Where and when did they form a geographic continuum? What caused them to move from that location (at least one of them had to move, and it was likely both). Finally, what caused the gaping discontinuity between the two leaving little trail in terms of haplogroup frequencies?

Fortunately, given the (likely) timing of each haplogroups' genesis, and the midway point between their modern day distributions, the Pontic-Caspian (PC) steppes are a natural candidate, but by no means the only! Broadly speaking, the PC steppes offer high mobility which can be useful in explaining the spread of the haplogroups and also their disappearances or absorbtions. Relating back to m269 and m73, the PC steppes could have been the location where the two haplogroups started to quickly spread away from each other, with the center of gravity for m269 moving westward, and the center of gravity for m73 moving eastward. Lastly, the PC steppes are a prime location for the geographic continuity between two haplogroups to be broken by other invading nomads, or a simple exodus.

Now I will give a more detailed account of how m269 and m73 could have spread out, and away from each other, along with showing some evidence that supports my model. For starters it is important to bare in mind that both haplogroups are associated with IE, and perhaps just as important, both haplogroups are associated with the peripheral of the IE world.

Prior to the more rapid spread of m269 and m73 away from each other, I propose that there existed a partial continuum, or nearly so, of the two haplogroups on the Western Eurasian steppes sometime around the XI and early III millennium bce. Around that time said region was part of a greater steppe world described by Chernykh. "The stock-breeding cultures of the Eurasian "steppe belt" covered approximately 7-8 million square km2 from the Lower Danube in the West to Manchuria in the East (a distance of more than 8000km). [1]. Chernykh then goes on to succinctly describe the genesis and maturation of this broad steppe (cultural) belt. "The initial formation of the "steppe belt' cultures coincided with the flourishing of the Carpatho-Balkan metallurgical province (V millennium BC). These cultures developed during the span of the Circumpontic metallurgical province (IV-III millennium BC). Their maturation coincided with the activity of various centers of the giant Eurasian and East-Asian metallurgical provinces (II millennium BC)." [1]. The essential information relevant to my model is that there was an early flow of metal production and influence moving from the West Eurasian steppes to the East Eurasian steppes, ultimately leading to the development of important metallurgical centers in East Asia II millennium BC. I strongly suspect that m73, along with some m269, was carried east alongside these cultural influences that spread from the Western steppes to the Eastern steppes.

Observations and Analysis: China occupies the eastern end of the Eurasian "steppe belt", as described by Chernykh. [1]. Based on the results represented above, we can see that, m17 is relatively spread out in China, apart from a very high concentration in Northwest China. On the other hand, the r1b pair is concentrated along the "steppe belt" from Nothwest China through Central C., Northern-Central-Eastern C., and finally Manchuria. To be more specific, the r1b pair is concentrated near to where the Chinese (East Eurasian) steppe and the more settled agricultural lands meet. I think this intermediate steppe zone was crucial in preserving early remnants of a west to east migration that moved along with eastern expansion of the "steppe belt" cultural influence that Chernykh talked about. In other words I think that m269 and m73 were a part of an early wave of migrants bringing western steppe influences eastwards, and participating in the formation, or early history, of the eastern extension of the "steppe belt". An early wave of m73 makes sense as paper [2] (p 723) notes that the m73 found in China is relatively old and that most the individuals belong to the tail end of the m73 network. Finally, due to the intermittent nature of the regions where m269 and m73 are found in concentration, sometimes more steppe influenced, sometimes more agriculturally influenced, the r1bs were better shielded from an exodus or absorbtion by latter steppe migrations, typically containing more m17. In fact, Chernykh says that "It is probable just at this time [XIII to XI centuries BC] that active opposition between the most ancient Chinese civilizations and the steppe world begins." [1] p 90. This active opposition to the steppe world should have helped to limit the introgression of later steppe haplogroups, likely to be richer in forms of m17. This concludes the main point of my paper.

Now ill will propose a more detailed model with a fuller picture of the demic history.

As I have already argued, I think that m269 and m73 was associated with the early spread of western steppe peoples (yamnaya) movement eastward; I don't see evidence in support of a similarly significant spread of m17 eastward in the earliest yamnaya groups. The trail I propose for this early eastward migration is, initially, yamnaya to the Afansasievo culture of the Altay region, in which newly arrived m269 and m73 would collect. The language of this culture is likely to have been a predecessor, or nearly so, to the latter documented tocharian. At a similar time yamnaya tribes leaving the western end of the PC steppes (or very near to it) would eventually carry large amounts of m269 to Western Europe. I won't argue the details as Jean M. could do it much better than I. They also spoke a Centum language, thus relating r1b and Centum to early migrations out of the PC steppes. The r1b that had settled in the Altay region during the earliest yamnaya forays to the area had surely migrated to various regions of China which correspond the areas where m269 and m73 are, relatively speaking, concentrated. The bulk of this probably occured during what has been called the "Karasuk penetration", 14/13 - 8 cent. BCE, by Chernykh. In reference to this "penetration", "It is obvious enough that the chain of Karasuk objects (or objects similar to Karasuk prototypes) stretched almost 3500km to the East: from the Sayan-Altay region, through Xingjang, Mongolia, Northern China (including Inner Mongolia) to the basin of Liao He and nearly to the Liaodong gulf. The other line of distribution of the steppe forms has a more southern or southeastern direction. Similar products are known to us from semi-desert and desert foothills of the Altun-Shan and Shanxi-Shanxi Plateau (Fig. 16). They approach right up to the territory on the Yellow River ruled by Shanghai governors." [1] p 91. The regions described above show a clear correspondence to the regions where m269 and m73 are "concentrated" in China, with the exception of Inner Mongolia and perhaps Northwest China. Though, as I said before, this is easily explained by replacement with latter steppe people higher in m17. Highly relevant is that a relatively large pool of m269 and m73 has been found in Siberia, possibly the descendants of the earliest yamnaya tribes pushing eastward towards the Altay. "R1b1b2-M269 that is frequent in Europe is rarely observed in diverse set of Siberian populations: Evenks (2.4%), Buryats (0.7%), Mongols (4.3%) and Tofalars (6.7%). However, more interesting fact is the presence of haplogroup R1b1b1-M73 in the whole series of Turkic-speaking populations -- Shors (13.2%), Teleuts (11.4%), Khakassians (3.2%), Tuvinians (1.9%), Altaians (1.1%), as well as in Mongolic-speaking Kalmyks (2.2%)." [3] p 585. Paper [3] goes on to say that there are two main clusters of M73 in Siberia, ages 4.4 +/- 1.5 and 5.6 +/- 4.0Ka, which fits rather nicely with a model of the early yamnaya migrations eastward. This part of Asia might just be another example of a region that was more shielded from later stage steppe migrations carrying high frequencies of m17. The barrier in this case might be the extreme latitude and cold temperatures.

To tac on another story in the chain of events I have envisaged, the Karasuk push into Central China might very well have been related to Yuezhi, whom many consider to be the bearers of tocharian. The Yuezhi are documented to have left Central China and migrate into the Tarim Basin not too long before Tocharian A and B are documented to have occurred in the Tarim Basin. After that, some have loosely connected their descendants to a southern migration that included Northern Pakistan as a final destination. Northern Pakistan is known to harbor significant quantities of m73 amongst an ocean of R1a and other haplogroups. Though, I find the chain of events just described as highly speculative and not crucially important to the larger ideas expressed in the title.

Finally, I suspect that m17, primarily of form m417, came to dominate large sections of the Eurasian steppe by a series of expansions probably originating around the Corded Ware (CW) Culture. I think m417 migrated into most of the PC steppe (VIA Catacomb Culture?), which previously had a strong presence of r1b. Andronovo carried m417 further east, which included the Tarim mummies found to be m417 themselves. These eastward migrations of m417 originating in CW, likely spoke forms of Satem, the younger counter to Centum! Note that despite the connection many people make between the Tarim mummies the Afansasievo culture and the Tocharians; the Tarim mummies lacked U (likely high in the Afansasievo culture) in their admittedly small number of West Eurasian mtDNA samples. For more detailed accounts on m417's spread eastward, it would be better to listen to Polako or Alan Trowel Hands so I won't bother detailing some of those migrations.

Thus concludes my explanation of the current data on the story of m269, m73, m17/m417, and Indo European.

Citations:

[1] The "Steppe Belt" of stockbreeding cultures in Eurasia during the Early Metal Age. Evgeny Chernykh, 2008.

[2] Mol Biol Evol (2010) doi: 10.1093/molbev/msq247

Extended Y-chromosome investigation suggests post-Glacial migrations of modern humans into East Asia via the northern route

I buy it. What has always perplexed me is that at the beginning of the Halstatt age, 800 BCE, the original people we call "Celts" were mining salts and other minerals in Austria. Within a few hundred years they are then terrorizing Europe with horses and chariots. Where did they get the horses, and how did they learn about horse culture, themselves being originally from the Alps? And which culture did they merge with that brought that knowledge from the east?

I dont really have time right now to chew over all of your very interesting post but the simple face is that R1b does have a pretty weird pattern when looked at as a whole. All we are seeing is the 21st century end game. The branching in the R1b tree between M73, M269 and V88 are incredibly old, almost certainly pre-farming and we need to be very careful about looking at the current very different pattern of those three branches geographically and remember the incredible time depth of seperation. M269 may be only 6000 years old but its split from the other two branches far far older than that. Understanding what happened in the dark period between the Mesolithic and the Bronze Age in terms of those branches is incredibly difficult. I would tend to agree that the centre of gravity of all three points to somewhere around either the steppes or the northern fringes of the middle east. I doubt the latter simply because this was in the early farming zone and there seems to have been a lack of substantial bushy branching until much later than the period c. 10000 years ago when farming appeared in those area. Having read into the history of Black Sea area recently the incredibly complex history of population replacement in the European steppe makes the modern pattern pretty useless to interpret prehistory. As I posted earlier the Crimea and the Ukraine steppe has had a virtually total population replacement since the late 18th century AD. The final phase of that was the Ukrainian and Russian expansion into the area in the last 250 years. Between Tsarist expansion and Joe Stalin the population of the Ukraine steppe has gone from Mongol/Tartar to almost entirely Slavic in the modern era. So, lets be clear, R1a make have been on the steppes with Iranian branches of IE in the Bronze and Iron Ages (Scythians, Cimmerians etc) but they were removed for over 1500 years by Asiatic non-IE tribes and the current R1a population are much more recent Slavic input. The Steppes seems to be one of those places where the nomadic lifestyle and wave after wave from the east means the population was replaced several times over in a much more total way that would likely happen in a settled farming region. I dont want to be too defeatest about this but I think the steppes is the very last place in Eurasia where modern populations can be used as a proxy.

To me R1a is linked to two language branches in terms of dominance - Balto-Slavic and Indo-iranian and indeed Anthony has linked all of them to a chain of cultures. R1a has been found in burials linked to both the cultures that Anthony links to them and they all have corded ware roots. R1a has of course been found in Corded Ware. In fact if you look at ancient R1a has essentially only been found in cultures with corded ware roots and interestingly the languages that are linked to these cultures are indeed linked to R1a today. So to me R1a's ultimate origins hinges on what the origins of Corded Ware were. They seem to have been some sort of cultural blend between TRB and other neolithic groups along with steppe influences. Which way the genes went is unclear to me (and archaeologists clearly dont agree on this). However, I think corded ware and its offshoots like Middle Dnieper, Fatyanovo etc hold the key to R1a. There is no evidence for R1a in the steppes before these cultures (which indeed were initially assocaited with the forest steppe anyway rather than the steppe). Finding R1a in corded ware or in cultures associated with Balto-Slavic and Indo-Iranian post-3000BC tells us nothing about who was on the steppes before 3000BC because everything I have read traces these cultures back to corded ware and the boundary between the steppes and farming lands. We simply dont know who lived there before. I suspect if R1b is steppic in origin then what happened is what happened later in the steppes in the historical period - a group leaves the steppes and is almost totally replaced by yet more nomadic pastoralists leaving very little trace. The last Ukraine steppe occupants, the Mongol Tatars went from being most of the population to practically zero between the time of Catherine the Great in the 18th century and Stalin in the mid 20th century. I notice over time western steppe groups who get displaced did tend to head south and west into eastern Europe, the west Asia highlands and Anatolia. I would be very very careful about reading to much into the current distributions of R1b in those areas. It is possible R1b was simply following the exact same patter of steppe peoples in history who dissapeared from the western steppes because of the next steppe group rolling in from the east. Only ancient DNA predating perhaps 3500BC from the western steppes is going to resolve this and a paper I posted recently indicates to me that the steppes may have had a diversity of peoples in the Neolithic era.

R1a it is clearly only half of the story. Largely the saetem half. There is a large area where R1b is associated with most of the centum languages and is generally located at most strength where corded ware was not located. They must have moved off before 3000BC and got away from that Middle Dnieper-Fatyanovo area early enough to miss the saetem shift. I suspect the western elements of corded ware could even have been saetem. The earliest corded ware was in SE Poland close to the whole melting pot where the steppes met the farming areas around the Carpathians etc and it only spread south-east and west a little later.

Anyway, R1b seems to me to likely have put enough of a distance between itself and the saetem groups to have missed the change. The real problem I fell is that there is no simple

The distributions of m269 and m73 are very interesting in that each of them lies near the periphery of the Indo-European (IE) world. Stretching across a vast expanse of Eurasia we find m269, concentrated in Western Europe, and m73 primarily found in Central Asia, whereby both regions have historically been inhabited by Indo-Europeans. What is especially peculiar about their distribution is the extreme lack of geographic continuity between the two haplogroups. There exists an ocean of steppe land, and a bit more, separating the bulk of m269 and the bulk of m73. But given how closely related the two haplogroups are, they, or their intermediate forms, must have formed a geographic continuum at some point in the not so distant past. This leads us to some basic questions concerning the history of this pair. Where and when did they form a geographic continuum? What caused them to move from that location (at least one of them had to move, and it was likely both). Finally, what caused the gaping discontinuity between the two leaving little trail in terms of haplogroup frequencies?

Fortunately, given the (likely) timing of each haplogroups' genesis, and the midway point between their modern day distributions, the Pontic-Caspian (PC) steppes are a natural candidate, but by no means the only! Broadly speaking, the PC steppes offer high mobility which can be useful in explaining the spread of the haplogroups and also their disappearances or absorbtions. Relating back to m269 and m73, the PC steppes could have been the location where the two haplogroups started to quickly spread away from each other, with the center of gravity for m269 moving westward, and the center of gravity for m73 moving eastward. Lastly, the PC steppes are a prime location for the geographic continuity between two haplogroups to be broken by other invading nomads, or a simple exodus.

Now I will give a more detailed account of how m269 and m73 could have spread out, and away from each other, along with showing some evidence that supports my model. For starters it is important to bare in mind that both haplogroups are associated with IE, and perhaps just as important, both haplogroups are associated with the peripheral of the IE world.

Prior to the more rapid spread of m269 and m73 away from each other, I propose that there existed a partial continuum, or nearly so, of the two haplogroups on the Western Eurasian steppes sometime around the XI and early III millennium bce. Around that time said region was part of a greater steppe world described by Chernykh. "The stock-breeding cultures of the Eurasian "steppe belt" covered approximately 7-8 million square km2 from the Lower Danube in the West to Manchuria in the East (a distance of more than 8000km). [1]. Chernykh then goes on to succinctly describe the genesis and maturation of this broad steppe (cultural) belt. "The initial formation of the "steppe belt' cultures coincided with the flourishing of the Carpatho-Balkan metallurgical province (V millennium BC). These cultures developed during the span of the Circumpontic metallurgical province (IV-III millennium BC). Their maturation coincided with the activity of various centers of the giant Eurasian and East-Asian metallurgical provinces (II millennium BC)." [1]. The essential information relevant to my model is that there was an early flow of metal production and influence moving from the West Eurasian steppes to the East Eurasian steppes, ultimately leading to the development of important metallurgical centers in East Asia II millennium BC. I strongly suspect that m73, along with some m269, was carried east alongside these cultural influences that spread from the Western steppes to the Eastern steppes.

Observations and Analysis: China occupies the eastern end of the Eurasian "steppe belt", as described by Chernykh. [1]. Based on the results represented above, we can see that, m17 is relatively spread out in China, apart from a very high concentration in Northwest China. On the other hand, the r1b pair is concentrated along the "steppe belt" from Nothwest China through Central C., Northern-Central-Eastern C., and finally Manchuria. To be more specific, the r1b pair is concentrated near to where the Chinese (East Eurasian) steppe and the more settled agricultural lands meet. I think this intermediate steppe zone was crucial in preserving early remnants of a west to east migration that moved along with eastern expansion of the "steppe belt" cultural influence that Chernykh talked about. In other words I think that m269 and m73 were a part of an early wave of migrants bringing western steppe influences eastwards, and participating in the formation, or early history, of the eastern extension of the "steppe belt". An early wave of m73 makes sense as paper [2] (p 723) notes that the m73 found in China is relatively old and that most the individuals belong to the tail end of the m73 network. Finally, due to the intermittent nature of the regions where m269 and m73 are found in concentration, sometimes more steppe influenced, sometimes more agriculturally influenced, the r1bs were better shielded from an exodus or absorbtion by latter steppe migrations, typically containing more m17. In fact, Chernykh says that "It is probable just at this time [XIII to XI centuries BC] that active opposition between the most ancient Chinese civilizations and the steppe world begins." [1] p 90. This active opposition to the steppe world should have helped to limit the introgression of later steppe haplogroups, likely to be richer in forms of m17. This concludes the main point of my paper.

Now ill will propose a more detailed model with a fuller picture of the demic history.

As I have already argued, I think that m269 and m73 was associated with the early spread of western steppe peoples (yamnaya) movement eastward; I don't see evidence in support of a similarly significant spread of m17 eastward in the earliest yamnaya groups. The trail I propose for this early eastward migration is, initially, yamnaya to the Afansasievo culture of the Altay region, in which newly arrived m269 and m73 would collect. The language of this culture is likely to have been a predecessor, or nearly so, to the latter documented tocharian. At a similar time yamnaya tribes leaving the western end of the PC steppes (or very near to it) would eventually carry large amounts of m269 to Western Europe. I won't argue the details as Jean M. could do it much better than I. They also spoke a Centum language, thus relating r1b and Centum to early migrations out of the PC steppes. The r1b that had settled in the Altay region during the earliest yamnaya forays to the area had surely migrated to various regions of China which correspond the areas where m269 and m73 are, relatively speaking, concentrated. The bulk of this probably occured during what has been called the "Karasuk penetration", 14/13 - 8 cent. BCE, by Chernykh. In reference to this "penetration", "It is obvious enough that the chain of Karasuk objects (or objects similar to Karasuk prototypes) stretched almost 3500km to the East: from the Sayan-Altay region, through Xingjang, Mongolia, Northern China (including Inner Mongolia) to the basin of Liao He and nearly to the Liaodong gulf. The other line of distribution of the steppe forms has a more southern or southeastern direction. Similar products are known to us from semi-desert and desert foothills of the Altun-Shan and Shanxi-Shanxi Plateau (Fig. 16). They approach right up to the territory on the Yellow River ruled by Shanghai governors." [1] p 91. The regions described above show a clear correspondence to the regions where m269 and m73 are "concentrated" in China, with the exception of Inner Mongolia and perhaps Northwest China. Though, as I said before, this is easily explained by replacement with latter steppe people higher in m17. Highly relevant is that a relatively large pool of m269 and m73 has been found in Siberia, possibly the descendants of the earliest yamnaya tribes pushing eastward towards the Altay. "R1b1b2-M269 that is frequent in Europe is rarely observed in diverse set of Siberian populations: Evenks (2.4%), Buryats (0.7%), Mongols (4.3%) and Tofalars (6.7%). However, more interesting fact is the presence of haplogroup R1b1b1-M73 in the whole series of Turkic-speaking populations -- Shors (13.2%), Teleuts (11.4%), Khakassians (3.2%), Tuvinians (1.9%), Altaians (1.1%), as well as in Mongolic-speaking Kalmyks (2.2%)." [3] p 585. Paper [3] goes on to say that there are two main clusters of M73 in Siberia, ages 4.4 +/- 1.5 and 5.6 +/- 4.0Ka, which fits rather nicely with a model of the early yamnaya migrations eastward. This part of Asia might just be another example of a region that was more shielded from later stage steppe migrations carrying high frequencies of m17. The barrier in this case might be the extreme latitude and cold temperatures.

To tac on another story in the chain of events I have envisaged, the Karasuk push into Central China might very well have been related to Yuezhi, whom many consider to be the bearers of tocharian. The Yuezhi are documented to have left Central China and migrate into the Tarim Basin not too long before Tocharian A and B are documented to have occurred in the Tarim Basin. After that, some have loosely connected their descendants to a southern migration that included Northern Pakistan as a final destination. Northern Pakistan is known to harbor significant quantities of m73 amongst an ocean of R1a and other haplogroups. Though, I find the chain of events just described as highly speculative and not crucially important to the larger ideas expressed in the title.

Finally, I suspect that m17, primarily of form m417, came to dominate large sections of the Eurasian steppe by a series of expansions probably originating around the Corded Ware (CW) Culture. I think m417 migrated into most of the PC steppe (VIA Catacomb Culture?), which previously had a strong presence of r1b. Andronovo carried m417 further east, which included the Tarim mummies found to be m417 themselves. These eastward migrations of m417 originating in CW, likely spoke forms of Satem, the younger counter to Centum! Note that despite the connection many people make between the Tarim mummies the Afansasievo culture and the Tocharians; the Tarim mummies lacked U (likely high in the Afansasievo culture) in their admittedly small number of West Eurasian mtDNA samples. For more detailed accounts on m417's spread eastward, it would be better to listen to Polako or Alan Trowel Hands so I won't bother detailing some of those migrations.

Thus concludes my explanation of the current data on the story of m269, m73, m17/m417, and Indo European.

Citations:

[1] The "Steppe Belt" of stockbreeding cultures in Eurasia during the Early Metal Age. Evgeny Chernykh, 2008.

[2] Mol Biol Evol (2010) doi: 10.1093/molbev/msq247

Extended Y-chromosome investigation suggests post-Glacial migrations of modern humans into East Asia via the northern route

I think that is a very interesting post indeed. I certainly have thought that M73 could well be linked to the Tocharians and that the R1a of the Tarim Dummies could relate to a later expansion. They both seem to be known in the general area. However, there is also the possibility that they were mixed R groups and we are reading too much into the present marked distribution division which may owe little or nothing to the situation in 3000BC. I agree with most of your post. I need to dig out my Tarim book by Jim Mallory just to refresh my terrible memory about the whole Tocharian/Tarim thing. In general I do agree that M73's distribution seems unlikely to be chance or explained by some lame arguement about captives or slaves from the middle east or the Balkans. That sort of thing would have produced a lot of L23XL51 not M73.

I think there is little doubt that the lineage that led to M73 was never in the farming zone of Europe or the middle east and gives the impression to me that it was steppic since pre-farming times. The line is old enough. Overall it must be recalled that the deep steppes were out of bounds until mobile pastoralism was developent and before that settlement would have been limited to river areas, lakes and limited a few other niches. That narrowing down of areas where the population of the steppes was to a few favoured areas rather than the whole Eurasian steppe could ultimately make it easier to work out where R1a and R1b were. In other words it will be much easier to work out patterns in the pre-mobile pastoralism era when the populations probably moved up and down a single river valley hunting and fishing with the seasons rather. Who knows, if they can get ancient yDNA from pre-Yamanaya steppes bones then maybe it will be possible to locate the exact river.

I have got to admit I find it very tempting to see R-M73 as relating to the Tocharians. I would sort of nearly round off the centum-R1b link. I saw a post stating that the present day Tarim basin population of Uyghurs (Turkik) are 50% R1b/R1a (I believe 20 and 30% I understand that their R1b is mostly M73. There were two early waves of steppes Europeans into the area - the Afanasevo (most likely Tocharian) and Andronovo (likely Indo-Iranian). I personally suspect mixed groups of R1a and M73 may have been associated with the first wave. After all the Uyghurs only spread into the area in the middle ages and neither R group is likely to have been originally associated with them. I suspect the later Anfronovo groups were more R1a dominated but the Afanasevo may have been rather like the Uyghurs of Tarim today in that they have fairly even amounts of M73 and R1a.

I think there is little doubt that the IEs in the east had something to do with the metal trade provinces. The earlier was the circum pontic was earlier and stretched from the Carpathians to the Urals. The second is a later eurasian group which stretch as far as China. There have clearly been several strands to this trade route including the Tocharians and the Andronovo/Iranic elements. However, its very tempring to see M73 as involved in the early phase of this metal trade extension east given the strong associations with other branches of R1b with metalworking. I wonder how M73 and R1a distribute in the east compared to metal sources, trade routes etc.

Another thought occurred to me relating to DNA in Kurgans. These are surely representing very high status people and could even simply be branches of a single royal lineage. So we would need to take care in extrapolating entire populations from a single royal lineage. The same effect is seen in the west with R1b and beaker. The burials and the whole distribution, variance and structure of R1b in the west is suggestive of a very important extended family rather than an entire population. The problem is the burials are probably representing important lineages too and not the whole population. These lineage may have come to have ridiculous numbers of descendants today but at the time they almost by definition had to be small minorities. Both R1b and R1a seem to have been very defined by expansions of single poweful lineages. Assuming R1a was similar in its growth to what R1b seems to have been in the beaker culture then you could be looking at Kurgans representing fissions of a royal line. That does not rule out other groups like M73 having been fellow travellors. I even wonder if they could have been the metal artisans and trader element given the R1b associations with that elsewhere. What is clear is when you have a lineage (such as P312) that apparently only comes into existence around the beaker period and then appears to have spread everywhere shortly after, you are looking at powerful or rich lineages thinly spread during the first few centuries of its existance. That implies to me that they were welcomed. P312 was simply far too young c. 2600BC to have been more than an extended single clan. You cant take on 10s of thousands with those sort of numbers. I suspect something similar probably was also true of R1a but I dont know enough about our R cousins to ponder this through. One thing I think is likely though from what I have been reading is that the easternmost R1a and probably M73 groups were heavily involved in the metal trade and sources in the eastern steppe and this does form a parallel for what the beaker people seem to have been doing in the west. In general I think there is a rather unhealthy attempt to turn R1a and R1b into rivals and to contrast them. Far too much is read into the modern distribution IMO. I doubt that it was a polarised as it seems mow 5000 years ago. At that date most of the R1a and R1b clades that fill modern maps did not even exist or were very new.

M269 may be only 6000 years old but its split from the other two branches far far older than that. Understanding what happened in the dark period between the Mesolithic and the Bronze Age in terms of those branches is incredibly difficult.

You may already know this but m269 and m73 are more related to each other than to v88, ie the v88 split occurred earlier. I'm really only concerned about the former two.

Quote from: alan trowel hands.

Finding R1a in corded ware or in cultures associated with Balto-Slavic and Indo-Iranian post-3000BC tells us nothing about who was on the steppes before 3000BC because everything I have read traces these cultures back to corded ware and the boundary between the steppes and farming lands.

Exactly! : )

Quote from: alan trowel hands.

There were two early wavesof steppes Europeans into the area - the Afanasevo (most likely Tocharian) and Andronovo (likely Indo-Iranian). I personally suspect mixed groups of R1a and M73 may have been associated with the first wave. After all the Uyghurs only spread into the area in the middle ages and neither R group is likely to have been originally associated with them.

I don't understand why you think r1a (we are both talking about m417?) was a part of the earliest expansion of the "steppe belt" or IE eastward.

Quote from: alan trowel hands.

In general I think there is a rather unhealthy attempt to turn R1a and R1b into rivals and to contrast them. Far too much is read into the modern distribution IMO.

Well, I mostly just think that there isn't evidence supporting the notion that m17 had a significant impact in the earliest yamnaya spread eastwards. One issue is that m17 and m417 both show a strong association with later waves of IE people in the East, so how would we be able to associate them with the first waves? Also, m17 is rather diffuse in the eastern half of China unlike m73 + m269 which concentrate along the the steppe/agricultural interface; the very area I think preserved some elements of the earliest "steppe belt" expansion eastward. I am slightly in favor of the idea that m17 was rather minor, compared to m73, in the first yamnaya expansions eastward. I do doubt that m417 had much of a presence in the PC Steppes given the lack of m417 in Western Europe, which I believe is connected to the earliest IE demic expansions Eastwards. I think there is a good chance m417 first entered the PC Steppes by a line connecting back to Corded Ware.

That being said, I probably do have some of the mentality you talked about. And your idea on total lineages being vastly over represented, creating misleading population structure, is VERY interesting. Though, you should keep in mind that large number if women were migrating as evidenced by the changes in mtdna.

Quote from: alan trowel hands.

I need to dig out my Tarim book by Jim Mallory just to refresh my terrible memory about the whole Tocharian/Tarim thing.