Sunday, November 26, 2017

NCAAF College Football Scores - Week 13

This week really turned everything upside-down, since both #1 and #2 lost.

The playoff picture now looks like this:

If they all win next week, the playoff teams will be Wisconsin, Oklahoma and Clemson. They would be joined by the winner of the Auburn/Georgia game. That configuration is anything but certain because Wisconsin and Clemson have tough games. (In fact, Wisconsin is an underdog.)

If Wisconsin is the only loser in that group, I'd expect Ohio State to grab their spot. If there are two losers, Alabama would have a pretty solid shot to re-enter. The most controversial situation would occur if Wisconsin wins and Clemson loses to Miami, because Clemson's spot could reasonably go to Miami or Alabama or the loser of a close Auburn/Georgia game, and each of those teams will have its advocates.

Oklahoma's spot seems pretty safe, since they will be in the top four, possibly as high as #2, and their remaining game is against TCU, a team they handled easily in a previous meeting. I suppose the Sooners are in for sure if they win that game, but I would rather see them lose and give that spot to a stronger team. My personal opinion, which counts for absolutely nothing, is that Oklahoma doesn't have enough D to be competitive with the big boys. They allowed 41 against a 1-11 Baylor team, 38 against Iowa State, 35 against Kansas State, 52 against Oklahoma State and 31 against West Virginia - and they allowed three other opponents to get into the 20s. They have an explosive offense, but they rank 53rd in the nation in points allowed, and 62nd in yards allowed. That doesn't sound like a national championship contender to me. All five of the other serious contenders (Alabama, Wisconsin, Georgia, Auburn and Clemson) have powerhouse defenses. The list of the "yards allowed per game" rankings for those five teams and Oklahoma is revealing. As they say on Sesame Street, one of these things is not like the others: 1, 2, 6, 7, 10, 62.

In other news, Notre Dame's status as a dark horse was ended when they pulled up lame and Stanford put them out of their misery.

By the way, Sagarin's computer ratings still say Alabama is #1, with Auburn #3. His predictions for next week: Georgia/Auburn split (he uses two different systems, and they disagreed), Wisconsin/OSU split, Stanford/USC split, Clemson 8 over Miami, Oklahoma 7 over TCU.