GOP 2016: Playbook's Top 5 most likely to win

The debut edition of our leader board of the Republicans most likely to win the presidential nomination, based on what we know now, shows the field may not be as big as most people think.

1) JEB BUSH (age 62, to Hillary’s 67): He’s got money, momentum, Florida, big ideas. His surprise, early signal that he’s running is THE PLAY OF THE CAMPAIGN so far — pushing OUT Mitt and perhaps Christie by freezing or stealing their money and talent. Jeb will be first Republican to $100 million by a mile. Now, watch for the use of overwhelming force to lock up more talent, donors and public endorsements. His big unknown: actual voters. A story leading the Tampa Bay Times today says Iowa “looks hostile,” in part because voters actually matter.

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2) GOV. SCOTT WALKER (age 47): He’s got a Wisconsin winning streak, union-bashing, newness and ambition. His boffo performance at the Iowa Freedom Summit got the chattering class to notice. Now, watch for him to position himself as conservative Midwest savior, snuggled between Jeb’s moderation and Cruz’s rigidity. After CPAC (a week and four days from now), Walker plans rat-a-rat trips to the three earliest states — Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina — within a month.

3) SEN. MARCO RUBIO (age 43): The Floridian is winning fans among future-thinking conservatives, especially younger ones. He’s buffing up on foreign policy and could plausibly be the most sophisticated national-security thinker in the field (grading on a curve, of course). He’s blowing off Senate votes to raise coin and planning trips to Iowa and New Hampshire. And in private, his aides are making clear his relationship with Bush wouldn’t be a deterrent. Remains Playbook’s top pick for veep under the “no-two-white-dudes-on-a-ticket” rule.

4) SEN. RAND PAUL (age 52): He’s got creativity, social-media savvy, an early-state organization and the capacity to surprise. SCOOP: Rand plans to continue his effort to reach beyond traditional GOP audiences with an upcoming appearance at a historically black college (he’s still nailing down location). Now, watch to see if he can truly upend what we know about the GOP electorate — and Rand and his family.

5) SEN. TED CRUZ (age 44): His right-wing lingo and street cred could propel him to an Iowa win, which would rattle the GOP establishment and ignite a media frenzy. He heads to Florida on Friday, venturing onto Jeb/Marco turf, as Rand did yesterday. Cruz is trying to look more serious and less scary by emphasizing national security — he did fine last Sunday in satellite interviews from the Munich Security Conference with George Stephanopoulos on ABC’s “This Week” and Dana Bash on CNN’s “State of the Union.” Don’t discount how much true-believers like Rep. Steve King (R-Iowa) like the guy.

THE REST: Gov. Chris Christie (age 52) was No. 5 when we first kicked around this list two weeks ago. Christie has candor, a winning record, raw ambition and some big donors. But Jeb’s fundraising juggernaut has squeezed Christie much worse than top Republicans had expected. And Christie’s London trip, where the biggest stories were about his stance on vaccines and his unwillingness to answer a question about ISIS, showed that the tough-guy shtick needs more work. Our leader board, of course, will change in radical ways in the weeks ahead, especially if another governor — John Kasich of Ohio, Mike Pence of Indiana — gets serious.

WHAT’D WE MISS? Tweet your thoughts and pushback to @mikeallen, or write us at mallen@politico.com.