SAN DIEGO WILL FEEL SEQUESTRATION’S IMPACT IN MANY WAYS

Long-term health, readiness will be damaged

The dirty word spreading across the U.S. Navy and the larger defense establishment this year is “sequestration.” It was never supposed to happen, yet today it is the law of the land. Worse still, there appears to be no interest in Congress to repeal this legislation. That’s significant, since the longer this process goes on, the greater will be the cumulative damage on the long-term health and readiness of the U.S. Navy, as well as all of America’s military.

Sequestration was born out of the Budget Control Act of 2011, which stipulated that more than $900 billion in defense cuts over 10 years would begin automatically in 2013 unless Congress passed a long-term deficit reduction plan. This provision was considered so draconian that all agreed at the time that it would never be implemented. Think again.

Sequestration is here, and its impact is being felt all across the fleet every day by the imposition of thousands of cuts in hundreds of Navy commands — from the “grounding” of the Blue Angels to the postponement of hospital ship deployments to Latin America. Still, it’s not generating “big news” like that which would happen if a multibillion-dollar program like the Joint Strike Fighter or Ford-class aircraft carrier were suddenly canceled.

Instead, sequestration’s impact is covert, almost sinister, since the law mandates every program and every part of the Navy’s budget must incur the same percentage reduction. This provision leaves service leaders with no flexibility in how to prioritize cuts or shield more important efforts from the budget knife. No wonder Navy Secretary Ray Mabus has called this process “mindless.”

For San Diego, the economic consequences of sequestration could be enormous, and the impact will unfold in hundreds of ways. Fewer warships will be upgraded or overhauled; aircraft maintenance will be scaled back; routine base and facility upkeep will be postponed; personnel furloughs will likely continue into coming years. All of these issues will affect local business and local jobs.

A 2012 study found that the Department of Defense spent about $20.6 billion a year in San Diego County alone, accounting for more than 311,000 jobs and generating more than $32 billion in local revenue — more than double what the region derives from tourism. As sequestration takes hold, this local economic lifeblood will undoubtedly plummet.

Keep in mind that these cuts are taking place at a time when the operational demand for Navy and Marine forces by regional commanders is on the upswing. The deployment lengths for aircraft carriers, amphibious ships and ballistic missile-equipped surface ships are all exceeding the Navy’s six-month deployment standard. Carrier Strike Groups and Amphibious Ready Groups will deploy for seven- to eight-month deployments in 2013, while BMD destroyers could deploy for nine-month tours of duty. This may well be the new normal for Navy ship deployments.

Navy leaders are attempting to identify about $10 billion in cuts from the 2013 budget — funding for which arrived six months after the start of the government’s fiscal year last October. That means this budget slashing must be done in a dramatically compressed time frame before the fiscal year expires on Sept. 30, creating yet more upheaval in Navy planning. These cuts will ax about $4 billion from the sea service’s operations and maintenance budget and $6 billion from ship and aircraft procurement accounts.