Poland GDP Q2 2019

Poland’s economy grew 4.5% year-on-year in unadjusted terms in the second quarter of this year, according to a revised estimate released by Poland’s Statistical Institute (GUS) on 30 August. The second-quarter outturn surpassed both analysts’ expectations and the preliminary estimate which projected a 4.4% annual expansion, although it was slightly down from Q1’s 4.7% increase nonetheless. On a quarter-on-quarter basis, growth decelerated to 0.8% in seasonally-adjusted terms (Q1: +1.4% quarter-on-quarter seasonally-adjusted).

Economic activity will likely soften this year amid a less supportive external environment and a diminished contribution to growth from EU-driven fixed investment, and as the economy approaches the tail-end of the current business cycle. Nevertheless, sizable wage and job gains should sustain consumer spending and GDP, while the government’s fiscal measures, which are set to come into effect in H2, represent a key upside risk to growth.
FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast analysts expect growth of 4.2% in 2019, which is up unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 3.6% in 2020.

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