After watching the Bengals do absolutely nothing at home against the Texans on Thursday, we have to take a step back and maybe not overrate the Ravens based on their Week 1 performance. The Browns impressed defensively against the Steelers in Week 1, and they should be able to keep this a low-scoring game. I hate backing rookie QBs in their first road starts, but it's going to be hard for the Ravens to cover such a big number if they don't have success on offense. Add in that the Ravens are staring a London trip in Week 3 in the face, and that's enough to back the Browns.

Browns fans are understandably encouraged by how their team competed against the Steelers, but I don't see Cleveland turning a corner this week. In my simulations, the Ravens are covering 63 percent of the time. Look for Baltimore's defense to frustrate rookie DeShone Kizer and for him to account for more turnovers than touchdowns. Lay the points.

Cleveland showed against Pittsburgh that they have a live defense, and having success against a mediocre Ravens offense should prove much easier. But DeShone Kizer is unlikely to come up big in his first road game, especially against Baltimore's elite defense. This total should dip, so grab it at the key number of 41 before it's too late.