A center map[2] (above) shows four areas of low pressure near or approaching New Jersey next Wednesday.

There’s uncertainty but the “flow regime is conducive to much wetter storm systems over the central and eastern United States,” according to the discussion.

A forecast discussion[4] by the National Weather Service Mount Holly Office says “a potent low pressure system will develop along the Gulf Coast and ride northeast by Tuesday night as high pressure departs.”

Right now, the most probable scenario would be for snow to overspread the region, with a changeover to ice and rain and then back to snow as the low leaves, according to the discussion. But there’s high uncertainty regarding the details.

Alex Sosnowski, senior meteorologist with AccuWeather.com, State College, Pa., said “the pattern’s changed a bit. We’re going to kind of get away from these Alberta clipper storms” and shift to storms from the Gulf that could result in some heavier precipitation events.

“We do think there’s going to be a storm system in the East Wednesday into Thursday,” he said. “I can’t say with certainty” what kind of precipitation or who would get hit hardest. It looks like the kind of storm we might typically see in February, he added.

“The pattern is favorable for some larger storms with more ample moisture available, so as we progress into the month (February), we could be looking at some potentially big precipitation events,” but that doesn’t mean it will be all snow in New Jersey, Sosnowski said.

David A. Robinson, the New Jersey state climatologist at Rutgers University, said there’s “a big question over just where the storms will track, and that makes all the difference in the world” regarding the amount and form of precipitation.

Bitter cold air will not be in the mix, he added.

Sosnowski said it looks like weak storms will be “trying to come up from the southwest” this weekend into the start of next week.

A storm on Saturday looks like it will be a milder one for New Jersey, he said.

He thinks Saturday’s storm will bring mostly rain, although “there can be a wintry mix,” he said. “If we do get a little sleet and wet snow at the onset, it’s not going to be a major problem.”

The air could be cold enough during the second storm – late Sunday night into Monday – to have a wintry mix and a period of snow, “but again, it doesn’t look like it’s going to be a major storm,” he said.

The track of the midweek storm is “very uncertain at this point and precipitation is very uncertain at this point, but we could be looking at anything from rain to a wintry mix to mostly snow from that storm,” he said.