(Newser)
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Longtime bin Laden deputy Ayman al-Zawahri has been generally assumed to be next in line for the leadership of al-Qaeda. But while the Egyptian surgeon has the smarts and the ideology, he lacks Osama bin Laden's charisma and is divisive to many in the terrorist organization, reports the Washington Post. “If free and fair elections (were conducted), Zawahri would most likely have a fight on his hands," said one intelligence analyst.

It may end up being a moot point: US officials have suggested they're closing in on him with intelligence gathered in the bin Laden raid. One congressman briefed on the matter said "we're hot on the trail." Other possible contenders to succeed bin Laden: Libyan jihadis Atiya Abd al-Rahman and Abu Yahya al-Libi, both said to be more personable than Zawahri. The group's recent statement confirming bin Laden's death made no mention of a successor, and one analyst tells the Post it's a mistake to make too big a deal of the issue. “The jihadists do not obsess over who is the No. 1 or No. 2 leader of a particular group."

This smells like so many other recent hurried analyses on OBL/Al Qaeda which turned out incorrect. Example: proclamation of cost and living conditions of his so called mansion were all over the map. Even if this is correct analysis today of AZ, people adapt. He will make adjustments to his management style because he has a different role now. He may not be as effective as his predecessor, but he can certainly lead this terrorist organization.