The “Gut Feeling” is often synonymous with a sense
of desperation resulting from a lack of preparation. The Gut Check
is a huge proponent of studying the numbers, but there’s
a point where one can place too much emphasis on the wrong information.
This can result in the undervaluing or overlooking a player’s
potential. Therefore, The Weekly Gut Check is devoted to examining
the frame of reference behind certain number-driven guidelines
that fantasy football owners use to make decisions.

Although The Weekly Gut Check doesn’t claim to be psychic,
he does believe that he can dispel certain numbers biases and
help you make the best choices for your team. We’ll keep
a running tally of The Weekly Gut Check’s insights. This
way you can gauge his views as something to seriously consider,
or at least seriously consider running the opposite way as fast
as you can!

For the last three seasons (2004,
2005, 2006),
The Gut Check has provided a short list of receivers with a statistical
profile where there was supposed to be a high probability of experiencing
a breakout fantasy season. The list is based on a historical, statistical
profile where receivers reached certain stats the year before they
experienced a big year for their team.

The players highlighted in yellow experienced a fantasy breakout
season of at least 150 fantasy points scored in a standard scoring
league (1pt per 10 yards receiving and 6 points per touchdown,
bonus points for 100-yard games). The players with an asterisk,
were quality starters in 12-team, 3-WR, lineups (top 36 at their
position):

Past Breakouts

2006 Candidates

2005 Candidates

2004 Candidates

Roy Williams, DET

Larry Fitzgerald,
ARI

Andre Johnson, HOU

Brandon Lloyd, WAS

Donte Stallworth,
NO *

Javon Walker, GB

Reggie Brown, PHI*

Lee Evans, BUF *

Reggie Wayne, IND

Antonio Bryant, SF

Charles Rogers, DET

Charles Rogers, DET

Deion Branch, SEA

Brandon Lloyd, SF

Brandon Lloyd, SF

Roy Williams, DET
*

A 150-point season is equivalent to a top-15 performance at the
receiver position. Yours Truly did accurately pick Roy
Williams as his top candidate to breakout in 2006, but he
missed out on three players. Branch was a Patriot at the time
of the Gut Check’s 2006 analysis and the missed games and trade
certainly had a negative effect. Antonio
Bryant was on the cusp of having a starter-worthy season.

While the Gut Check is still over 50% at picking quality starters
one can insert into a 3-WR lineup (56%), the accuracy rate continues
to plummet with each succeeding year. Sure, Yours Truly mentioned
Bernard
Berrian and Donté
Stallworth as candidates for consideration, but he picked
incorrectly. In fact there is a three-year downward trend with
this profiling method.

Maybe the criteria used for a breakout season needs to be redefined
a bit. Predicting 3-4 players to make the top 15 at their position
when they have never reached it before is overshooting the mark.
At the same time, it’s still worthwhile information for
fantasy owners to see which players could present a draft day
value with this kind of production potential, because if they
miss the mark the results from the past three years show these
players still have value.

In this year’s article, the Gut Check will tier the players according
to a predicted fantasy point range. He was heading in this direction
last year when he listed players in a predicted order of likelihood
for a breakout season. Next week, he’ll display an alternate method
of statistical profiling breakout candidates for not only the
receiver position, but also the other skill positions—he calls
it the Second Half Wonder Theory. Some of the Second Half Wonders
for 2006 included Roy Williams, Mark Clayton, Amani Toomer, Reggie
Brown, Frank Gore, and Chris Cooley. Each had great productivity
for at least significant portions of the year.

Here’s a quick review of the analysis used to arrive at
the players in 2004-2006 (for a more detailed explanation, check
out 2004’s article):

Create a sample size from the top 15 WRs during a 20-year
span.

Pinpoint the highest percentage cluster of years where a breakout
occurred.

Create a statistical profile of a receiver that fits the potential
breakout criteria.

Determine the receivers from 2006 that fit the profile entering
2007.

If one uses Tony San Nicholas’ analysis, it tends to yield
a much higher accuracy rate. In a short, he discovered 71.4% of
rookie WRs over the past 20 years with between 50-59 receptions
and 700-799 yards experienced a breakout season the following
year. In 2004, the sole candidate to fit the criteria was Andre
Johnson. In 2005, there were more candidates (Williams, Fitzgerald,
Houshmandzadeh, Stallworth, Givens, McCareins, and Northcutt)
but the accuracy rate (57%) was lower than the historical average.
Tony’s baselines revealed two curious picks for 2006:

2006: 50 Receptions, 700-Yard
Benchmark

Last

First

Year

Team

G

Rec

Rec Yd

Rec TD

FF Pts

Parker

Eric

2005

SD

16

57

725

3

90.5

Givens

David

2005

NE

13

59

738

2

85.8

The Gut Check doesn’t feel either candidate passed the
eyeball test as a likely breakout candidate. Givens missed most
of the year with a torn ACL and Parker was 60th among fantasy
receivers. Looking ahead to 2007, San Nicholas’ method yields:

On the surface, these two seem like much better candidates for
a 2007 breakout than Parker and Givens in 2006. But both need
something to change this year to become consistent, fantasy starters.
With Darrell Jackson sent to the Niners, Branch assumes the primary
role and it will increase his likelihood for statistical success.
Berrian has been used primarily as a deep threat. Although he
has shown the ability to go over the middle with success, he’ll
need to rely upon the continued development of Rex Grossman. An
additional factor will be Rashied Davis and Mark Bradley’s
recovery from his 2005 ACL tear. If Bradley is back to full health,
he could take away catches from Berrian on 2007. Watch Bradley’s
camp closely.

Historically, the Gut Check’s expanded analysis sacrifices
some accuracy in percentage points but he winds up with more players
to fall within the spectrum of possibility. Based on the last
three years, the breakout candidates from the Gut Check’s
statistical profiling generally performed well enough for consideration
in a starting lineup even if their production didn’t reach
top-15 quality at their position.

Here is the Gut Check’s performance profile for a potential
breakout candidate.

85% of the sampled breakout receivers achieved this
feat between years 2-5 of their NFL career.

81% had at least 41 receptions

78% had at least 2 touchdowns

71% had at least 400 receiving yards.

An average of five receivers per year attain breakout
status.

As mentioned, there are 109 players—some prominent performers—that
did not meet the 41-400-2/2-4 years experience criteria. Nonetheless,
1-2 of these receivers makes a significant leap in production
an annual basis. This includes the players eliminated from the
initial list above (i.e.—Santonio
Holmes , a player the Gut Check believes is a viable candidate
despite not making the cut in this statistical method).

While the Gut Check prefers to stick with the more defined criteria,
here’s the list of players with a decent chance to breakout
due to their situation and talent, despite lacking the statistical
profile.

GC's Expanded Breakout
List

Player

Team

G

GS

Target

Rec

Yard

TD

FFPts

FFPts/G

33. Devery Henderson

NO

13

7

54

32

745

5

112

9

36. Donte' Stallworth

PHI

12

11

78

38

725

5

103

9

46. Nate Washington

PIT

16

2

69

35

624

4

87.2

6

49. Michael Jenkins

ATL

16

16

83

39

436

7

85.8

5

52. Vincent Jackson

SD

16

7

56

27

453

6

82.9

5

56. Patrick Crayton

DAL

16

6

48

36

516

4

75.6

5

59. Kevin Curtis

STL

16

1

56

39

469

4

68.3

4

60. Eric Parker

SD

15

12

70

48

659

0

67.8

5

65. Brandon Jones

TEN

16

10

55

27

384

4

62.7

4

68. Antwaan Randle El

WAS

16

16

63

32

351

3

61.9

4

69. Ernest Wilford

JAC

16

12

74

36

524

2

61.4

4

70. Hank Baskett

PHI

16

5

43

22

464

2

58.4

4

71. Bobby Wade

TEN

16

2

58

33

461

2

58.1

4

75. Cedrick Wilson

PIT

15

12

68

37

504

1

54.8

4

78. Terrance Copper

NO

15

4

42

23

385

3

51.3

3

79. Demetrius Williams

BAL

16

0

45

21

389

2

50.9

3

80. Ashley Lelie

ATL

15

9

68

28

430

1

49

3

81. Roddy White

ATL

16

6

64

30

506

0

47.6

3

82. Mark Bradley

CHI

10

0

23

14

282

3

46.2

5

85. Troy Williamson

MIN

14

11

76

37

455

0

45.5

3

86. Brandon Marshall

DEN

15

1

37

20

309

2

44.1

3

88. Roscoe Parrish

BUF

16

1

40

23

320

2

42.8

3

89. Billy McMullen

MIN

16

0

41

23

307

2

42.7

3

93. Rashied Davis

CHI

16

2

56

22

303

2

39.3

3

94. Malcolm Floyd

SD

12

0

32

15

210

3

39

3

96. Chad Jackson

NE

12

1

19

13

152

3

35.4

3

98. Brandon Lloyd

WAS

15

12

57

23

365

0

33.5

2

102. Derek Hagan

MIA

16

0

37

21

221

1

28.1

2

106. Dennis Northcutt

CLE

13

6

45

22

228

0

23

2

110. Kelley Washington

CIN

5

1

12

9

115

1

17.5

4

125. David Givens

TEN

5

5

20

8

104

0

10.7

2

126. Jason Avant

PHI

8

3

15

7

68

1

9.8

1

When yours truly ran the numbers for the statistical profiling
method, the players listed below made up the initial pool of candidates
for 2007.

Breakout Candidates: Initial
Pool

Player

Team

G

GS

Target

Rec

Yard

TD

FFPts

FFPts/G

21. Reggie Brown

PHI

16

15

93

46

816

8

138

8.6

22. Jerricho Cotchery

NYJ

16

16

126

82

961

6

134.6

8.4

26. Braylon Edwards

CLE

16

15

122

60

879

6

125.1

7.8

28. Mark Clayton

BAL

16

12

113

67

939

5

120.9

7.6

34. Bernard Berrian

CHI

15

14

102

51

775

6

111

7.4

38. Deion Branch

SEA

14

13

101

53

725

4

99.5

7.1

39. Bryant Johnson

ARI

16

8

75

40

740

4

94.7

5.9

40. Reche Caldwell

NE

16

14

102

61

760

4

94.5

5.9

42. Santonio Holmes

PIT

16

4

85

49

824

2

89.7

5.6

43. Antonio Bryant

SF

14

13

91

41

747

3

89.7

6.4

44. Reggie Williams

JAC

16

14

92

53

615

4

88.9

5.6

48. Arnaz Battle

SF

16

15

86

60

683

3

86.1

5.4

50. D.J. Hackett

SEA

14

5

67

45

610

4

85

6.1

51. Matt Jones

JAC

14

4

80

41

643

4

84.7

6.1

53. Greg Jennings

GB

14

11

105

45

632

3

81.2

5.8

54. Ronald Curry

OAK

16

4

89

62

727

1

79.1

4.9

55. Travis Taylor

MIN

16

16

87

57

651

3

77.6

4.9

58. Wes Welker

MIA

16

3

100

67

687

1

71.7

4.5

64. Samie Parker

KC

16

15

68

41

561

1

62.8

3.9

Berrian and Branch naturally make this list, but there are also
nineteen other players that match The Gut Check’s expanded
profile. The first way to pair down these candidates is to eliminate
the receivers lacking a firm hold on a starting job heading into
2007. At the time of this writing, there were receivers that either
shared the #2 spot with another receiver (Holmes, Caldwell, Williams,
Welker, and Taylor), or were at best #3 WRs for their squad (Johnson,
Hackett, and Curry). Samie
Parker is a player the Gut Check believes will lose his starting
spot with the drafting of LSU rookie Dwayne
Bowe.

This leaves ten candidates. An average of five breakout receivers
make the top 15 for the first time in a given year. There were
four last year—Evans, Williams, Houshmandzadeh, and Colston—but
Yours Truly only picked Williams. The fact Santonio Holmes, Donte
Stallworth, and Michael Jenkins either didn’t fit the initial
criteria or second cut begs the question as to the efficacy of
this analysis. While he’ll try a different method next week,
let’s see if the Gut Check will have more success with this
one in 2007:

10 Solid Candidates

Player

Team

G

GS

Target

Rec

Yard

TD

FFPts

FFPts/G

21. Reggie Brown

PHI

16

15

93

46

816

8

138

8.6

22. Jerricho Cotchery

NYJ

16

16

126

82

961

6

134.6

8.4

26. Braylon Edwards

CLE

16

15

122

60

879

6

125.1

7.8

28. Mark Clayton

BAL

16

12

113

67

939

5

120.9

7.6

34. Bernard Berrian

CHI

15

14

102

51

775

6

111

7.4

38. Deion Branch

SEA

14

13

101

53

725

4

99.5

7.1

48. Arnaz Battle

SF

16

15

86

60

683

3

86.1

5.4

51. Matt Jones

JAC

14

4

80

41

643

4

84.7

6.1

53. Greg Jennings

GB

14

11

105

45

632

3

81.2

5.8

64. Samie Parker

KC

16

15

68

41

561

1

62.8

3.9

Another point to consider is the number of receivers breaking
the 150-fantasy point mark. In 2004 there were an unheard of 23
receivers with at least 150 fantasy points—the highest total
since 1993 (19 players). This was likely a result of the new illegal
contact rules. But in 2005 and 2006 it appeared defenses made
the adjustment. There were only thirteen and fourteen 150-fantasy
point receivers in 2005 and 2006 respectively—the lowest
amounts in a decade.

As he did in 2006, the Gut Check will profile the remaining 10
candidates plus four players he’s selecting from the list
of receivers that didn’t meet the statistical profile. Here
they are, ranked from worst to best in terms of the Gut Check’s
confidence in their skill and situation to have a strong season.
Consider the top five players as the Gut Check’s breakout
candidates:

Not Quite Ready For Prime Time Players

Arnaz Battle,
San Francisco 49ers: The former Notre Dame quarterback is one
of the few college signal callers that have successfully made
the transition to wide receiver in the NFL. This is a big, athletic
receiver who caught nearly 70% of his targets from a second-year
signal caller and running beside an underachieving #1 talent in
Antonio Bryant. Despite Battle’s ascent up the WR depth chart,
the Gut Check believes this receiver is close to the level of
production the Niners envision from their #2 receiver in this
offense. Yours truly doesn’t see Battle becoming a primary receiver
unless forced into the role. If that happens, San Francisco will
struggle offensively. The addition of Darrell Jackson guarantees
Battle is at best, the secondary receiver. At worst, he loses
his job to Ashley Lelie—which is a strong possibility.

Jerricho
Cotchery, New York Jets: Despite two scoring receptions of
over 70 yards, the Gut Check does not see Cotchery as a deep threat.
Nor does he view the Jets offense as a system that will support
two, 1000-yard receivers on a regular basis. The Jets’ inconsistent
ground game necessitated a higher level of passing productivity.
The addition of Thomas Jones should help the Jets control the
clock more effectively. Do you really think Cotchery, paired opposite
Laveranues Coles, is going to catch more than 82 balls? The Gut
Check just doesn’t see it. Reading articles about Cotchery’s work
ethic is encouraging, but yours truly views Cotchery as a good
player that with good, not great, productivity.

Kevin Curtis,
Philadelphia Eagles: This was a great pick up Philly. Curtis is
a speedster with enough toughness to catch the ball over the middle.
The Gut Check believes Curtis has a chance to be an even better
addition than last year’s trade for Stallworth. He’s not a big
guy, but he plays with the aggressiveness you want from a football
player.

In 2005, Curtis started in place of an injured Isaac Bruce and
accumulated 822 yards and 6 scores off 61 receptions. Those sound
like excellent numbers for Curtis when he and McNabb take the
field together. This is the type of receiver a fantasy owner will
want to draft late, stash for a few weeks, and then ride him on
a winning streak as Philly’s offense gets in sync. He may not
score the magic 150 points we’re seeking from a breakout player,
but he’ll play like one down the stretch for the Eagles and your
team.

Vincent Jackson, San Deigo Chargers: Over the last 5 weeks of
2006, there were only 13 receivers more productive than Jackson.
He had more than half of his receptions during this period and
displayed the athleticism the Chargers sorely lacked for years
at the position. Yet over a 16-game period, his stats project
to 45 receptions, 915 yards, and 10 scores. This would place him
just above the magic, 150-point mark. The Gut Check doesn’t
see the Chargers passing game or Jackson playing with this level
of consistency throughout the year. Rivers should continue to
progress, but Gates and Tomlinson are still the centerpieces of
this offense. Look for Jackson to come close to those projected
reception and yardage totals, but only score 6-7 times.

On The Border

Calvin Johnson, Detroit Lions: Yes, he’s a rookie. But
it seems every year the Gut Check points out the infinitesimally
small number of receivers that had a breakout season in the history
of the league but we’ve seen since 2004 Clayton, Boldin,
and Colston reach this level of production in their rookie season.
All three are bigger receivers that can run after the catch. Calvin
Johnson is that candidate for this reason and so many more.

If you haven’t heard, Johnson has the hand eye coordination of
a Randy Moss or Larry Fitzgerald, the size and running skills
of a Boldin or Owens, and no major character issues. Roy Williams
is an excellent receiver in his own right. Pairing Calvin Johnson
opposite Roy Williams is simply ridiculous—yes, perhaps more so
than Boldin and Fitzgerald or Bruce and Holt in their heyday.
The offense will have a year of Martz’s system under their belt
and Johnson will be playing with a quarterback in Kitna that is
a huge upgrade from Georgia Tech’s woefully inaccurate signal
caller, Reggie Ball.

If Kitna stays healthy, it’s inconceivable for Johnson
not to average 4 catches per game at an average of 15 yards per
catch. Throw in a touchdown every 8 catches—a number bordering
on something you’d see from a top receiver—and you
have 48 grabs, 960 yards, and 6 scores—18 points away from
the breakout mark. The Gut Check is going to use this as a conservative
number for a player of Johnson’s skill. But he’s toning
down his enthusiasm for this rookie despite his rare talent in
a passing offense that will get him the ball.

Greg Jennings, Green Bay Packers: Jennings was a pleasant surprise
for the Packers at the top of the season, but he faded fast in
the second half. The Gut Check thinks Jennings has more physical
potential to be a #1 receiver than Cotchery, but he’s still
second banana to Driver. Yet if there’s a QB capable of
producing two, 1000-yard receivers, Favre is that type of player.
Expect Jennings to improve upon his rookie season, but fall just
short of reaching the productivity of a breakout fantasy receiver.

Santonio
Holmes, Pittsburgh Steelers: If Jennings was a pleasant surprise
to begin the season Holmes had a sneaky-good rookie season. Although
he struggled with fielding punts and kicks, Holmes didn’t show
as much of problem running routes and catching passes. Holmes
had 192 more yards than Jennings on just 4 extra receptions! Look
for the Ohio State product to build on his rookie year as teams
continue to focus on Hines Ward. The Steelers have quietly discussed
the possibility of expanding the passing attack for the past two
seasons. It might have happened last year if not for Roehtlisberger’s
motorcycle accident. If Pittsburgh continues to move in this direction
under Mike Tomlin, Holmes has the skills to put together excellent
numbers in 2007. The Gut Check expects Holmes to come close and
be a no-brainer breakout candidate for 2008.

Matt Jones,
Jacksonville Jaguars: Jacksonville improved its ground game in
2006, but quarterback play faltered due to injuries and inconsistency
at the back up spot. This is a pivotal year for Byron Leftwich
and Jaguars passing game. The Jags’ brass has to feel that Leftwich
has to put it all together this year or they will be looking elsewhere
in 2008. And Jones will be an integral part of a receiving corps
that has yet to live up to its flashes of potential.

There’s no doubt Jones is a physical freak at his position
but he has fallen prey to minor injuries one would expect from
a player with no experience at the receiver position upon entering
the pros. It’s the same issue as last year for Jones—there
are too many ifs related to this passing game to bet on Jones
as a surefire breakout candidate. At the same time, Jones was
a top 16 receiver over the last five weeks of 2006 with 19 catches,
320 yards, and 3 scores. He’s also most likely to be the
primary receiver for the Jaguars.

If Reggie Williams or Ernest Wilford can be consistent, Jones
has a strong opportunity to shine. But the guys to keep an eye
on are 2nd year receiver Charles Sharon and rookie Mike
Walker. Sharon was one of the most talented all-around receivers
in the 2006 class and intrigued the Jags before his recent arrest.
If convicted, his career is likely over. But he is a great route
runner with excellent hands—something the Jags covet. Walker is
actually a bigger and faster version of Sharon that didn’t play
with a quality college quarterback. If one of these receivers
can step into the system and become a solid possession guy out
of the slot or on the outside, then Jones will have big games.

Breakout Imminent

Bernard Berrian, Chicago Bears: Last year, the Gut Check listed
a few reasons why Berrian would come close but not hit the breakout
mark in 2006: The Bears offense still had a number of question
marks. The running game became more of a committee? And Grossman
disappeared in games last year. Berrian had a big jump in his
numbers, but not enough for the Bear to become a more than a #3
receiver in his 3rd year. The Gut Check believes this year Berrian
will take that next step. He gained the trust of Grossman in 2006
and demonstrated he is more than just a deep threat. It’s
more likely that the other receivers on the Bears depth chart
will be spelling the aging veteran Muhammad than Berrian. Draft
the 4th year receiver with confidence as a #3 receiver if not
take a chance on him as a #2 if you are targeting other positions
early.

Deion Branch, Seattle Seahawks: On the surface, Branch seemed
like the most logical can’t miss candidate last spring on
the 2006 list. Then Branch held out and got traded to the Seahawks.
Now Branch is the undisputed #1 receiver for Seattle with the
draft-day trade of Darrell Jackson to the 49ers. If one projects
Branch’s production in 13 starts over a full season, the
receiver would accumulated 65 receptions, 892 yards, and five
scores—not breakout material. But to be fair to Branch he
was the #2 receiver to Darrell Jackson. In 2007 Branch is the
Seahawks’ de facto primary wide out now with a year of the
west coast offense under his belt.

Still, the Gut Check has reservations about Branch. Although
Tom Brady really missed his top receiver, the Pats QB still had
excellent stats. The same couldn’t be said for Branch. The system
change had something to do with it, but who exactly will be playing
on the opposite side of the Seahawks’ new primary weapon in the
passing game? D.J. Hackett looked good at times, but is he really
good enough to take away double teams? Nate Burleson has disappointed
thus far and Bobby Engram is more of a steady veteran presence.
Rookie Courtney Taylor is a receiver more along the lines of Engram
and Burleson when he develops, but it won’t likely be this year.
And Jordan Kent has great athleticism, but needs a lot of coaching
to develop. Without great complementary support, Branch is still
a player that will likely reach this breakout level, but don’t
reach for him as your first WR off the board.

Braylon
Edwards, Cleveland Browns: Did you know Edwards had more games
producing at a level of a #1 and #2 fantasy WR than Chad Johnson,
Roy Williams, Anquan Boldin, and Torry Holt? Edwards wasn’t as
prolific in terms of points per game, but he was highly consistent
despite poor pass protection to give Frye, Quinn, or Anderson
time to throw the football. The Michigan alum is developing into
a beast of a receiver—he only had three games last year where
he scored less than 9 fantasy points. Look even better totals
from the Cleveland Brown with an upgraded offensive line.

Mark Clayton,
Baltimore Ravens: At this time last year, McNair was not even
a Raven. Now that McNair will have a year under the Ravens system
and Baltimore upgraded their running game with the addition of
Willis McGahee, look for the offense to make significant improvement.
The Ravens won’t be the offensive juggernaut on par with the Colts
or Bengals—New England has a better chance to achieve that level
production—but look for the Ravens to be just a notch below in
the AFC. Clayton is a terrific runner after the catch and has
the speed to get deep. He’s the type of receiver a savvy quarterback
like McNair will be able to find when the play breaks down. Clayton
was the 18th-most productive receiver over the last five games
of the 2006, which shows McNair clearly gained comfort with the
highly regarded, 2nd-year receiver out of Oklahoma. Clayton had
on more target than Mason—113 to 112—and 189 more yards with three
fewer starts. The torch has been passed to Clayton. Look for him
to build on his 2006 production and perform like a #2 WR at the
draft value of a #3.

Dontè Stallworth,
New England Patriots: Stallworth falls a bit because he will be
the complimentary option to Randy Moss. Brady is quite capable
of producing multiple, 1000-yard receivers but the offense is
now loaded with weapons—Moss, Ben Watson, Maroney, Wes Welker
in the slot, Chad Jackson in his second season, and Kelley Washington
as depth. The Patriots are taking a page out of the Colts and
Rams offensive playbook in many respects. Brady threw for 3500
yards and 24 scores last year without receivers nearly as good
as Moss and Stallworth. It’s very likely Brady will get another
45-60 attempts this season, which should put him within range
of 4000 yards. Plus, Moss has never been a great threat on those
routes over the middle. Stallworth is likely to get these looks
along with Welker. Moss should have a 1200-yard season in New
England and look for Stallworth to get 1000 yards with 9 scores.
That leaves another 1800 yards worth of receptions for Welker,
Maroney, Watson, and the Pats suddenly talented depth chart.

Reggie
Brown, Philadelphia Eagles: The Gut Check had Brown pegged
as a top breakout candidate in 2006 and the Eagles receiver was
on pace to reach 200 fantasy points after seven weeks. But the
loss of Donovan McNabb in week 8 derailed Browns production. The
2nd year receiver only produced a little more than 50 fantasy
points in the remaining 8 games with Garcia under center.

Still yours truly likes Brown’s work ethic and athleticism.
The Gut Check was correct that Donovan McNabb would lean hard
on Reggie Brown in 2006, and fantasy owners did get a draft day
bargain for half the season if they got him as their #3 starter.
Look for Brown to easily surpass his 2006 totals as long as McNabb
begins playing with confidence by week four.

Matt Waldman would like to thank Doug Drinen of profootballreference.com
for his indirect assistance with this article. His site provides
a comprehensive, and fairly accurate, history of the football
statistics available for download and in a format easy to manipulate
with database queries.