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Nuclear option(s): Pathways for the French nuclear ramp down and its implications for GB

Aurora’s new strategic insight report ‘The nuclear option(s): Pathways for the French nuclear ramp down and its implications for GB’ introduces the French power market and provides key insights into the outcomes of potential nuclear ramp-down scenarios ahead of the French government’s Multiannual Energy Programme later this year.

Key messages to emerge from the analysis are:

The French nuclear ramp down will lead to higher carbon emissions and wholesale prices, but this could be mitigated by a higher renewables buildout

Delaying the nuclear ramp down to 2040 would increase exports from France to GB by 9%, reducing the GB annual baseload price by £2/MWh

France’s increasing reliance on interconnectors during cold winters threatens security of supply in GB; derating factors in the GB Capacity Market should be updated to reflect the likely contribution of interconnectors to security of supply

If you would like to discuss the findings, please get in touch. Contact

In October 2014, EU leaders agreed on common climate and energy targets for 2030. These included a 40% reduction in GHG emissions relative to 1990 levels, along with targets for renewables deployment and energy efficiency. However, Europe’s main decarbonisation instrument, the EU ETS Phase III, is well out of step with her stated ambitions. The 20% reduction in GHG emissions by 2020 should easily be achieved. However, the 2030 target requires credible commitment to much more stringent policies, particularly in power, where the economics dictate much of the emission reduction burden should be borne.

Natural gas markets are growing fast on a global level, with more players, increasingly complex rules and mechanisms, and rising global connectivity. In this global context, Europe sits in a unique position, with an escalating import dependency and an ever growing number of suppliers. Increasingly difficult upstream financing, highly political infrastructure developments, and the intricate evolution of gas-for-power demand will drive the future of the European gas market.

Commodity prices drive the size and structure of the energy industry perhaps more than any other factor. Long-term commodity price expectations have fallen dramatically across the energy market, and strategies and policies are evolving consistent with these new beliefs. More than $200 billion worth of oil and natural gas assets are currently for sale globally. Coal-to-gas switching in power, which becomes more attractive with falling commodity prices, is firmly on the political agenda in Europe and the US.