Comments

NFL Picks

NFL Picks: Bengals vs. Steelers Betting Odds Report

Looks like people have fallen back in love with
Andy Dalton. His Cincinnati Bengals are road favorites for Sunday Night Football against the floundering Pittsburgh Steelers. How are we approaching these opening NFL odds, and how do we expect them to move?

Jason’s
record on his final NFL picks for 2013, up to December 9 inclusive:

35-29-2
ATS

1-1
ML (+0.71 units)

8-14-1
Totals

[gameodds]16/227090/?r-1=43-19-349/us[/gameodds]

How ya like me now? When you’re an NFL
quarterback, the answer to that question almost always depends on your team’s
last game. Andy Dalton knows this better than anyone; he was a hero when his
Cincinnati Bengals started the season at 6-2 SU and 5-2-1 ATS, then a zero when
they dropped back-to-back away games in overtime, and now he’s a hero again
after three straight wins. People sure are fickle.

That’s fine; exploiting people is what
betting on football is all about. And the Bengals have all the earmarks of a
team that you can use to exploit the NFL betting market. They’re a small-market
team with an awful history, a marvelous defense, and a red-headed game manager at
quarterback. The Week 15 NFL odds have Cincinnati laying 2.5 points for Sunday
night’s matchup (8:30 p.m. ET, NBC) at Heinz Field with the Pittsburgh
Steelers, who have lost back-to-back games and are all but eliminated from
playoff contention.

At least the sharps appreciate Cincinnati.
Our early NFL betting consensus reports show 70 percent support for the Bengals, and a
closer look at the betting patterns from the Strip reveals that the initial
burst of action was indeed on Cincy. Hard to argue with that. The Bengals went
into Week 14 ranked No. 7 in overall efficiency (No. 21 offense, No. 4 defense,
No. 7 special teams), and they crushed the Indianapolis Colts 42-28 as 7-point
home faves, improving to 9-4 SU and 8-4-1 ATS in the process.

Let’s see… Rust Belt team, great defense,
game manager QB… sounds like your defending Super Bowl champion Baltimore
Ravens. Except the Bengals aren’t quite as good at running the football. Their
offense is split between the No. 20-ranked passing attack and the No. 21-ranked
ground game, although things have improved now that RB Giovani Bernard (4.7
yards per carry) is getting a few more touches at the expense of RB BenJarvus Green-Ellis
(3.4 yards). He should get more.

MGMT
QB

It’s important to get those YPC numbers up,
of course, but the important thing is that the Bengals tailbacks are getting
the ball. Cincinnati is seventh in the league in rushing attempts at just over 30
per game. That’s the backbone of any sound game management plan on offense. It
limits the opportunities Dalton (87.7 passer rating, 25 TDs, 16 INTs) has to
negatively impact the outcome by throwing interceptions.

And make no mistake: Dalton throws interceptions.
But hey, you can’t make an omelet without breaking a few footballs. His
plus-104 passing DYAR through Week 13 placed Dalton in the same class of
entirely decent quarterbacks as Arizona’s Carson Palmer (plus-180) and Kansas
City’s Alex Smith (plus-153). Those two teams are also doing very well this
year with strong defense and don’t-screw-this-up offense.

Steelers
Wheel

The Steelers (5-8 SU, 6-7 ATS) used to be
in that category. Except they took it to another level with QB Ben
Roethlisberger, who is a huge step up in talent compared to the Tommy Maddoxes
and Mike Tomczaks that preceded him. Roethlisberger (94.1 passer rating,
plus-604 passing DYAR) is having another fine year, but the offensive line in
front of him is in tatters, his tailbacks are always getting hurt, and the
Steelers rushing offense has fallen all the way to No. 29 on the efficiency
charts.

Even more damning, the Steel Curtain
defense was No. 23 in the league going into last week’s 34-28 loss to the Miami
Dolphins (+3 away). If the Fish can handle the Steelers in the snow, I don’t
like Pittsburgh’s chances against Cincinnati with the weather reports calling
for another cold one. Mmmm… cold ones.