Our extremely early 2018 Oscar predictions

Sally Hawkins in The Shape of Water, Gary Oldman in Darkest Hour, Emma Stone in Battle of the Sexes. (Photos: Fox Searchlight/Focus)

Conventional wisdom used to hold that the Oscar race officially began at September’s Toronto International Film Festival. But in recent years, studios and distributors have decided to premiere more of their prestige fare at fests in Telluride and Venice, getting a head start on the gold rush by, oh, a week or two. And that’s not counting the increasing number of contenders hatching at Sundance, which unfolds in January at about the same time as the previous year’s slate of films is being celebrated at various awards ceremonies.

The truth: Oscar season has no beginning or end; it’s everlasting, ubiquitous, perpetual, surrounding us always — whether we like it or not.

But following the festivals in Telluride, Venice, and Toronto, we have much more clarity on which films have momentum leading into the awards season. The list includes Guillermo del Toro’s sci-fi romance The Shape of Water; Joe Wright’s Winston Churchill biopic, Darkest Hour; and Martin McDonagh’s darkly comic crime mystery, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri. Meanwhile, a couple of Sundance premieres (Dee Rees’s Mudboundand Luca Guadagnino’s Call Me by Your Name) held serve as they reached (slightly) wider audiences.

Keeping in mind that there are still a few high-profile films on the way that no one has seen, most notably Steven Spielberg’s The Post and Paul Thomas Anderson’s Untitled Paul Thomas Anderson Movie (which should really have a title by now), here’s my first crack at handicapping the top six categories at the 2018 Academy Awards. Don’t worry, we still have four months to figure it out, but that’s nothing in the infinite span of Oscar season.

BEST PICTURE

For all the brouhaha about the dismal box office, 2017 is actually shaping up to be a really good year when it comes to the quantity of quality. There were at least six legit Best Picture contenders (Mudbound, Call Me by Your Name, The Big Sick, Get Out, Wonder Woman, and Dunkirk) that premiered before the calendar even flipped to August. And while The Shape of Water and Three Billboards (which won TIFF’s audience prize, often a Best Picture predictor) are trending upward, there’s a lack of clear frontrunners, unlike this time last year, when La La Land and Moonlight had already established themselves as co-favorites. For now, the race will be suspenseful, unless Spielberg has anything to say about it.

Other contenders:Wonder Woman, Battle of the Sexes, Downsizing, The Disaster Artist, Logan, The Beguiled, Wonderstruck, Wind River, The Florida Project, Molly’s Game, War for the Planet of the Apes, Detroit

Remaining to be seen:The Paper, Untitled Paul Thomas Anderson Movie, The Greatest Showman, Wonder Wheel, Last Flag Flying, All the Money in the World, Wonder

Christopher Nolan’s Dunkirk. (Photo: Warner Bros.)

BEST DIRECTOR

Christopher Nolan has to be the early frontrunner here, given the sheer technical wizardry of his World War II thriller, Dunkirk, but he could face some stiff competition from Joe Wright for Darkest Hour, which many critics feel works like a companion piece. Guillermo del Toro also feels like a nomination lock for The Shape of Water. Dee Rees, meanwhile, stands to become the first black woman ever nominated for Best Director and only the fifth woman OF ALL TIME (a number so low that it will never not be shocking, thus the necessity for caps lock). But again, we’re still waiting on Spielberg and Anderson.

In a refreshing twist, it’s the lead actress category that’s overflowing with worthy contenders. There are at least 10 performances so far that feel award-worthy, led by Sally Hawkins’s raved-about turn as a mute who meet-cutes a merman in The Shape of Water. The downside of this category? #BestActressSoWhite.

It sounds absurd proclaiming this so early, but by all indications this race is Gary Oldman’s to lose. The 59-year-old Brit, who surprisingly has been nominated only once (for Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy in 2012) but didn’t win, has mesmerized critics since Darkest Hour debuted at Telluride. Denzel Washington should also be in the mix for his decidedly un-Denzel-ish turn as a righteous defense attorney who falls somewhere on the spectrum, though Roman J. Israel, Esq. as a whole didn’t exactly wow reviewers.

Allison Janney in I, Tonya (Photo: Toronto International Film Festival)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Like Best Actress, the Best Supporting Actress category appears deeper than it has in eons, and there’s no doubt a tough decision looming for voters: Holly Hunter (The Big Sick), Laurie Metcalf (Lady Bird), and Allison Janney (I, Tonya) all give sharply humorous and at times heartbreaking performances, though my early money is on Janney, who would be a first-time nominee. Also look out for Hong Chau, even though her breakout role in Alexander Payne’s Downsizing (in which the Vietnamese-American actress speaks in broken English as a Vietnamese immigrant) might potentially prove controversial for advancing stereotypes.

Here’s another race that’s wide open — admittedly, as it should be in September. If Mudbound continues to catch on, bank on Jason Mitchell (due after Straight Outta Compton), who stands out in an excellent ensemble. Pundits are largely split on who the favorite is, with Willem Dafoe (The Florida Project), Sam Rockwell (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri), and Michael Stuhlbarg or Armie Hammer (Call Me by Your Name) all with their proponents, though I’m hoping everyone also loves Ray(mond) Romano for his surprisingly touching dramatic turn in The Big Sick.