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Strategy Briefing

China Economic Outlook: Q4 2018

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China’s economy gradually slowed down in 2018, with average Q1-Q3 growth of 6.7%. The slowdown in growth of global trade and higher US tariffs have raised the importance of China’s domestic demand for the economy. However, consumption growth has also slowed down, although remaining relatively high. In our baseline forecast, GDP increases by 6.5-6.7% in 2018, by 5.6-6.6% in 2019 and by 5.2-6.6% in 2020.

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China’s economy gradually slowed down in 2018, with average Q1-Q3 growth of 6.7%.

Rising trade tensions with the US and the associated uncertainty have been key factors in the worsening outlook. In September, the US imposed 10% tariffs on another USD200 billion of imports from China, rising to a 25% tariff in 2019.

As a result, we have reduced our GDP growth forecast for 2019 by 0.2 percentage points.