Tropical Storm Emily degraded into an open tropical wave yesterday afternoon, after Hurricane Hunters could no longer locate a center of circulation at the surface. Through the morning yesterday, the storm appeared to lose most of its strong thunderstorm activity on the north side, and mid-level circulation was broad (tropical cyclones need a tight, coherent circulation to maintain themselves). Soon after the Hurricane Hunters took a pass through the storm, the National Hurricane Center demoted Emily from a tropical storm to a remnant low, while continuing to stress the rainfall threat to Hispaniola and eastern Cuba. Today it appears the center of the remnants are located just north of eastern Cuba in the southern Bahamas, although thunderstorm activity continues across eastern Cuba. Hispaniola probably saw rain and thunderstorms again early this morning, the strongest of which were on the eastern side of the island. New thunderstorm activity is starting to develop in the southeast Bahamas. Given Wednesday's rain gauge analysis from CPC, Hispaniola probably saw at least an additional 5 inches of rain yesterday.

Environmental conditions remain pretty much the same as yesterday, but are expected to become more favorable for Emily's remnants, and redevelopment of the storm is possible. Circulation from the low to mid-levels is still broad and tilting to the east with height due to the lingering moderate westerly wind shear. However, this shear is expected to dissipate some over the next 24 hours, and signs of this are already present to the west of the remnants. The dry air that has been following the storm since its inception has dissipated, as well.

Figure 1. Satellite imagery of the remnants of Tropical Storm Emily as they move northwest away from Cuba and Hispaniola and into the Bahamas.

Forecast for Emily's RemnantsInterestingly, the models have come into better agreement on the forecast for former Emily now that it has lost its surface circulation and degenerated into a tropical wave. The ECMWF, which has come out ahead in this forecasting game so far, is optimistic today that Emily will redevelop. Other global models—GFS, CMC, and FIM—also redevelop the storm. Consensus on timing of redevelopment seems to be when the wave reaches the northern Bahamas in 24 to 48 hours. At 12Z (8am EDT), the high-resolution HWRF model run forecasted a track that was furthest to the west of all the models, scraping eastern Florida as it travels northwest. The most probable track and intensity forecast that I see at this point is north-northwest movement over the next 24 to 36 hours, at which point the system will take a fairly sharp turn to the northeast and out to sea. Without an already established, coherent circulation, it appears unlikely that if Emily is reborn it will intensify into anything more than a moderate tropical storm. However, there is some potential as the system moves out to see that it could gain some strength and develop hurricane-force winds before it transitions into an extra-tropical cyclone.

Typhoon Muifa passes to the south of Okinawa, heads into East China Sea

The center of Typhoon Muifa passed to the south of Okinawa earlier this morning (Eastern time) and it continues to batter the islands with high winds and torrential rain. Local radar estimate rainfall rates as high as 80 mm/hour (approx. 3 inches/hour) in the strongest rain bands. Kadena Air Force Base near the city of Okinawa has been reporting sustained winds of 47 mph with gusts up to 72 mph. Muifa is expected to turn northwest today as it enters the East China Sea as a category 1 on the Saffir-Simpson scale, and then intensify into a category 2 as it passes close to eastern China. This morning, the forecast is that Muifa will probably not make landfall anywhere as a typhoon.

Figure 2. Radar imagery from the Japan Meteorological Agency around 1am JST. Scale is in millimeters. Highest rainfall rates appear to be approximately 3 inches/hour.

South-Central U.S. continues to bake

The extreme heat continues again today after 269 high maximum and 250 high minimum temperature records were set yesterday, 19 and 29 of which were all-time records, respectively. 206 of yesterday's records were 110°F or higher. Yesterday, Reuters was reporting that Texas was one power plant shutdown away from rolling blackouts. The forecast today doesn't look any better. Heat index values up to 125° are forecast in eastern Texas and the Lower Mississippi Valley.

Quoting DSIjeff:Maybe the people in South Florida can at least watch the rain of on the horizon.

Good Morning from SoFla. Very still here - seemed hotter and more humid than usual on the dog walk this morning.On the satelite pictures and radar ex Emily looks fairly healthy - I am not a weather person, just it seems to look like it is redeveloping. And unless it goes due north, seems we would get a few squalls from it. Maybe just wishful thinking; the water bills for the lawn are painful.That blob by Barbados looks pretty healthy too - is that what folks are calling "Franklin"?

looks like franklin followed by get but gert develops south of hati then moves over cuba and redevelops in the straights and franklin develops in the W. carribean. very interesting, no ridging to block them from hitting the US

Quoting positivenao:Franklin on the 6z GFS 312 hours in the GOMEX as a hurricane ignore the 1001mb based on the size a hurricane in the gulf, and notice Gert in the carribean developing

ok, now if I should believe what you are saying, first you show a map with Gert ready to plow the NFla/Ga/SC coast at 284 hours, with no other storms visible...then at 312 hours you say Franklin in the GOM...don;t we have our alphabet mixed up a bit ??? Better idea, step away from the GFS...

6zGFS Gert who was south of hati moved over cuba then wnw and develops in the florida keys again moves wnw into the Gulf stregnthining, 384 Hours, Notice 0z GFS takes Franklin out to sea and Gert into the east coast but the 6z shows both franklin and gert impacting the US gulf coast

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONSOF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COASTFROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASEDON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...ANDMETEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.