Matthew Pouliot

Strike Zone

2004 Top 100 Prospects Review

Below is a review of the preseason Top 100 Prospects column from 2004. I've left the players listed with their ages (as of Opening Day 2004), ETAs and 2003 stats from that column and added in where each player was listed on Baseball America's top 100 and Baseball Prospectus' top 50.

I'll begin the 2009 team top 10s next week, with the new Top 150 scheduled for late February

2004 quote: Tsao is back throwing 91-95 mph after making a full recovery from Tommy John surgery.

Tsao came down with a sore shoulder in April 2004, and he's never truly been healthy since. BA and BP had the better ideas here. The top 10 isn't a place for pitchers with injury questions like Tsao had.

2004 quote: Comparisons to Greg Maddux have become common, since Greinke dominates without being overpowering. However, Greinke doesn't quite have the movement on his fastball that Maddux does. Bret Saberhagen might be a better match.

Greinke is a very different pitcher now from the one who dominated minor league competition at such a young age, but it looks like he's on his way to fulfilling expectations after finishing 10th in the AL in ERA as a 24-year-old.

2004 quote: A left-handed line-drive hitter with 15-homer power and an outstanding eye at the plate, Reed looks like he could become baseball's best leadoff man someday.

We were all fooled by the outstanding .373 batting average. Baseball America had a better read on him, yet still rated him as the best prospect in the White Sox system. It's incredible that a player this good in the minors hasn't at least become a quality fourth outfielder in the majors.

2004 quote: He projects as a .310-.320 hitter, and because he's patient at the plate and could develop 15-homer power, he should be one of baseball's better all-around second baseman. Weeks does lacks polish defensively…

Perhaps hopes about Weeks being a great hitter for average should have been dashed when he came in at .259 in Double-A in 2004. He was up for good in 2005, but in 1,615 major league at-bats, he's batted .245.

2004 quote: Although his 56 errors in the minors indicate that he isn't quite ready defensively, he projects as an above average shortstop.

We all thought Upton would make it at shortstop, and it surely played a big role in all of our rankings. He's likely to end up justifying this position anyway, but it's safe to say he wouldn't have been listed in the top 10 in my rankings had it been known he'd end up in the outfield. The Rays saved us all from difficult decisions by calling him up prior to his 20th birthday and giving him 159 at-bats in 2004, preventing us from having to try to rank him again in 2005 (when he never did play in the majors) and 2006.

2004 quote: The Twins aren't thrilled with his defense and may end up making him their long-term DH, but they will have need of his bat this season, even though they'll go with Matthew LeCroy over him initially. Morneau is certain to have some .300-30-110 seasons in the majors.

Interestingly, Morneau was ranked 14th by BA the previous year, compared to 20th by me and 30th by BP. While BP and I moved him up pretty sharply based on him going from 16 to 26 homers, BA viewed the events of 2003 seemingly as a net negative. Morneau went on to be badly mishandled by the Twins in the first half of 2004 (Jose Offerman???), but things have worked out OK since.

2004 quote: It took four years, but Rios finally settled in as a top prospect in 2003, becoming the Eastern League MVP by posting an OPS 235 points higher than his career total entering the year.

Rios' breakthrough did prove to be legitimate, though he's still had just one 20-homer season in the majors. Considering that he's a career .288/.338/.455 hitter, he hasn't quite fulfilled expectations yet.

2004 quote: Kazmir, a high school teammate of Expos No. 3 prospect Clint Everts, has about as much upside as any pitcher in the minors. The 2002 first-round pick has a mid-90s fastball, an excellent slider and a changeup that tends to come and go.

As varied as the opinions were, it's hard to blame the Mets for trading him or Victor Zambrano.

2004 quote: Young has yet to play in the minors, but he's already one of the game's most talked about prospects. The first overall pick in the 2003 draft has outstanding offensive potential, drawing comparisons to Albert Belle…

That ETA sure was jumping the gun. We'd all have Young in the top three the following season.

2004 quote: When he has his control working, the 2001 sixth-round pick is capable of dominating with his mid-90s fastball. His slider and changeup still need refinement, so he's a few years away from reaching his full potential.

Everyone got a little too excited after watching Jackson outduel Randy Johnson on his 20th birthday on Sept. 9. His command simply wasn't as good as his tolerable Double-A walk rate suggested.

2004 quote: Like Mauer, Mathis is the total package. He's been an excellent hitter as one of the youngest players in his leagues (he's just turning 21 on March 31), and despite the occasional miscue, he shows outstanding promise behind the plate.

Mathis' minor league numbers were inflated by playing in hitter's parks, but he still figured to be a lot better than this. He will have a long career because of his glove.

2004 quote: Only the injury risk keeps Miller ranked below Edwin Jackson. … Durability is the main concern, since he did have some minor shoulder issues last season.

Miller may well have had the most potential of any pitcher on this list. However, given the extreme command problems he's dealt with since returning from shoulder problems, it doesn't look like he'll ever make an impact.

2004 quote: He has the 90-95 mph fastball and decent changeup to become a No. 2 starter. However, as he makes his way through the minors, he'll have trouble with hitters who lay off his curve, which typically breaks out of the strike zone.

Like Greinke, Floyd doesn't really resemble the pitcher he was in the minors. He won 17 games last season anyway, but he's a No. 3 at best.

2004 quote: Jerry's little brother was limited by a back injury for much of the minor league season, but he's a terrific hitter who closely resembles Marcus Giles from three years ago. Since he probably won't improve his defense at second base like Giles did, Hairston could end up in an outfield corner.

It took longer than expected, but Hairston has demonstrated that he'd be at least an adequate regular in the outfield. Unfortunately, he's continued having problems staying healthy. I was too high on him.

2004 quote: The Braves have a great reputation for keeping and dumping the right pitching prospects, but Wainwright remains very promising. The 2000 first-round pick's stock began to dip after a slow start at Greenville, but he turned things around in the second half and finished 10th in the Southern League in ERA.

Wainwright dropped 10 spots in my rankings from 2003, but 31 spots in BA's. BP had him abut the same.

2004 quote: At least some of Stokes' problems in 2003 can be traced back to the wrist surgery he had following a breakthrough 2002 season in which he hit .341/.421/.645 in 97 games for low Single-A Kane County.

In 2003, it was #19 for me, #15 for BA and #11 for BP. I gave him a free pass, thinking that he just needed the full year to recover from wrist surgery. Stokes never did put the injury behind him, though.

2004 quote: McGowan, the 33rd overall pick in the 2000 draft, is steadily making the transition from thrower to pitcher. He still lacks consistency with his power curve and changeup, but he's getting better, and his mid-90s fastball is overpowering at times.

McGowan's promise survived Tommy John surgery. We'll find out in May or June whether he still has his arm strength following labrum surgery.

2004 quote: Greene should be a Shea Hillenbrand-type hitter in the majors, but because of his defensive value, he'll be a better player than the Arizona third baseman.

BA was considerably lower on Greene than most of the competition both years in which he qualified as a prospect. It may yet work out for them, though Greene has had two seasons in which he's been a well above average regular.

2004 quote: Barfield may not have the glove to play second base in the majors, but the Padres are going to leave him there and see if he can become Jeff Kent. … Barfield has Jose Vidro-like offensive upside, but he has some plate coverage issues.

Example No. 372 of why it's never a good idea to get too excited about a breakout season in the California League. That said, Barfield did put up an 820 OPS in the PCL as a 22-year-old and a 741 OPS in Petco as a 23-year-old. It's bizarre just how far he's fallen the last two years.

2004 quote: Snelling had a difficult time coming back from a torn ACL last season and further knee problems limited him to 253 at-bats. Because the Aussie is a reckless player center field, the injury troubles probably aren't going to go away.

BA wrote off Snelling as a top-notch prospect after his partial season in 2003. Since he was still so young, it was hard for the rest of us to do the same.

2004 quote: Defensively, he has trouble throwing out baserunners but is average elsewhere. If necessary, Huber's bat could allow him to become a decent first baseman. As a catcher, he's a potential All-Star.

Huber had another very promising offensive season in 2004, but he underwent left knee surgery and the Royals opted to move him to first base immediately upon acquiring him from the Mets. He never adjusted well to the position, and he's battled more injuries while trying to make it in the outfield the last couple of years. It's not looking good for one of my favorites.

Below is a review of the preseason Top 100 Prospects column from 2004. I've left the players listed with their ages (as of Opening Day 2004), ETAs and 2003 stats from that column and added in where each player was listed on Baseball America's top 100 and Baseball Prospectus' top 50.

I'll begin the 2009 team top 10s next week, with the new Top 150 scheduled for late February

2004 quote: Tsao is back throwing 91-95 mph after making a full recovery from Tommy John surgery.

Tsao came down with a sore shoulder in April 2004, and he's never truly been healthy since. BA and BP had the better ideas here. The top 10 isn't a place for pitchers with injury questions like Tsao had.

2004 quote: Comparisons to Greg Maddux have become common, since Greinke dominates without being overpowering. However, Greinke doesn't quite have the movement on his fastball that Maddux does. Bret Saberhagen might be a better match.

Greinke is a very different pitcher now from the one who dominated minor league competition at such a young age, but it looks like he's on his way to fulfilling expectations after finishing 10th in the AL in ERA as a 24-year-old.

2004 quote: A left-handed line-drive hitter with 15-homer power and an outstanding eye at the plate, Reed looks like he could become baseball's best leadoff man someday.

We were all fooled by the outstanding .373 batting average. Baseball America had a better read on him, yet still rated him as the best prospect in the White Sox system. It's incredible that a player this good in the minors hasn't at least become a quality fourth outfielder in the majors.

2004 quote: He projects as a .310-.320 hitter, and because he's patient at the plate and could develop 15-homer power, he should be one of baseball's better all-around second baseman. Weeks does lacks polish defensively…

Perhaps hopes about Weeks being a great hitter for average should have been dashed when he came in at .259 in Double-A in 2004. He was up for good in 2005, but in 1,615 major league at-bats, he's batted .245.

2004 quote: Although his 56 errors in the minors indicate that he isn't quite ready defensively, he projects as an above average shortstop.

We all thought Upton would make it at shortstop, and it surely played a big role in all of our rankings. He's likely to end up justifying this position anyway, but it's safe to say he wouldn't have been listed in the top 10 in my rankings had it been known he'd end up in the outfield. The Rays saved us all from difficult decisions by calling him up prior to his 20th birthday and giving him 159 at-bats in 2004, preventing us from having to try to rank him again in 2005 (when he never did play in the majors) and 2006.

2004 quote: The Twins aren't thrilled with his defense and may end up making him their long-term DH, but they will have need of his bat this season, even though they'll go with Matthew LeCroy over him initially. Morneau is certain to have some .300-30-110 seasons in the majors.

Interestingly, Morneau was ranked 14th by BA the previous year, compared to 20th by me and 30th by BP. While BP and I moved him up pretty sharply based on him going from 16 to 26 homers, BA viewed the events of 2003 seemingly as a net negative. Morneau went on to be badly mishandled by the Twins in the first half of 2004 (Jose Offerman???), but things have worked out OK since.

2004 quote: It took four years, but Rios finally settled in as a top prospect in 2003, becoming the Eastern League MVP by posting an OPS 235 points higher than his career total entering the year.

Rios' breakthrough did prove to be legitimate, though he's still had just one 20-homer season in the majors. Considering that he's a career .288/.338/.455 hitter, he hasn't quite fulfilled expectations yet.

2004 quote: Kazmir, a high school teammate of Expos No. 3 prospect Clint Everts, has about as much upside as any pitcher in the minors. The 2002 first-round pick has a mid-90s fastball, an excellent slider and a changeup that tends to come and go.

As varied as the opinions were, it's hard to blame the Mets for trading him or Victor Zambrano.

2004 quote: Young has yet to play in the minors, but he's already one of the game's most talked about prospects. The first overall pick in the 2003 draft has outstanding offensive potential, drawing comparisons to Albert Belle…

That ETA sure was jumping the gun. We'd all have Young in the top three the following season.

2004 quote: When he has his control working, the 2001 sixth-round pick is capable of dominating with his mid-90s fastball. His slider and changeup still need refinement, so he's a few years away from reaching his full potential.

Everyone got a little too excited after watching Jackson outduel Randy Johnson on his 20th birthday on Sept. 9. His command simply wasn't as good as his tolerable Double-A walk rate suggested.

2004 quote: Like Mauer, Mathis is the total package. He's been an excellent hitter as one of the youngest players in his leagues (he's just turning 21 on March 31), and despite the occasional miscue, he shows outstanding promise behind the plate.

Mathis' minor league numbers were inflated by playing in hitter's parks, but he still figured to be a lot better than this. He will have a long career because of his glove.

2004 quote: Only the injury risk keeps Miller ranked below Edwin Jackson. … Durability is the main concern, since he did have some minor shoulder issues last season.

Miller may well have had the most potential of any pitcher on this list. However, given the extreme command problems he's dealt with since returning from shoulder problems, it doesn't look like he'll ever make an impact.

2004 quote: He has the 90-95 mph fastball and decent changeup to become a No. 2 starter. However, as he makes his way through the minors, he'll have trouble with hitters who lay off his curve, which typically breaks out of the strike zone.

Like Greinke, Floyd doesn't really resemble the pitcher he was in the minors. He won 17 games last season anyway, but he's a No. 3 at best.

2004 quote: Jerry's little brother was limited by a back injury for much of the minor league season, but he's a terrific hitter who closely resembles Marcus Giles from three years ago. Since he probably won't improve his defense at second base like Giles did, Hairston could end up in an outfield corner.

It took longer than expected, but Hairston has demonstrated that he'd be at least an adequate regular in the outfield. Unfortunately, he's continued having problems staying healthy. I was too high on him.

2004 quote: The Braves have a great reputation for keeping and dumping the right pitching prospects, but Wainwright remains very promising. The 2000 first-round pick's stock began to dip after a slow start at Greenville, but he turned things around in the second half and finished 10th in the Southern League in ERA.

Wainwright dropped 10 spots in my rankings from 2003, but 31 spots in BA's. BP had him abut the same.

2004 quote: At least some of Stokes' problems in 2003 can be traced back to the wrist surgery he had following a breakthrough 2002 season in which he hit .341/.421/.645 in 97 games for low Single-A Kane County.

In 2003, it was #19 for me, #15 for BA and #11 for BP. I gave him a free pass, thinking that he just needed the full year to recover from wrist surgery. Stokes never did put the injury behind him, though.

2004 quote: McGowan, the 33rd overall pick in the 2000 draft, is steadily making the transition from thrower to pitcher. He still lacks consistency with his power curve and changeup, but he's getting better, and his mid-90s fastball is overpowering at times.

McGowan's promise survived Tommy John surgery. We'll find out in May or June whether he still has his arm strength following labrum surgery.

2004 quote: Greene should be a Shea Hillenbrand-type hitter in the majors, but because of his defensive value, he'll be a better player than the Arizona third baseman.

BA was considerably lower on Greene than most of the competition both years in which he qualified as a prospect. It may yet work out for them, though Greene has had two seasons in which he's been a well above average regular.

2004 quote: Barfield may not have the glove to play second base in the majors, but the Padres are going to leave him there and see if he can become Jeff Kent. … Barfield has Jose Vidro-like offensive upside, but he has some plate coverage issues.

Example No. 372 of why it's never a good idea to get too excited about a breakout season in the California League. That said, Barfield did put up an 820 OPS in the PCL as a 22-year-old and a 741 OPS in Petco as a 23-year-old. It's bizarre just how far he's fallen the last two years.

2004 quote: Snelling had a difficult time coming back from a torn ACL last season and further knee problems limited him to 253 at-bats. Because the Aussie is a reckless player center field, the injury troubles probably aren't going to go away.

BA wrote off Snelling as a top-notch prospect after his partial season in 2003. Since he was still so young, it was hard for the rest of us to do the same.

2004 quote: Defensively, he has trouble throwing out baserunners but is average elsewhere. If necessary, Huber's bat could allow him to become a decent first baseman. As a catcher, he's a potential All-Star.

Huber had another very promising offensive season in 2004, but he underwent left knee surgery and the Royals opted to move him to first base immediately upon acquiring him from the Mets. He never adjusted well to the position, and he's battled more injuries while trying to make it in the outfield the last couple of years. It's not looking good for one of my favorites.

2004 quote: Gonzalez had his problems last year after undergoing offseason wrist surgery, but he bounced back in the AFL and should be 100 percent this year. In a best-case scenario, Gonzalez will have a John Olerud-type career.

Others soured on Gonzalez because he was so slow to show power. As it turned out, he developed more than anyone could have predicted.

2004 quote: The 2001 first-round pick has a 90-94 mph fastball with movement and his curveball is another plus pitch. His slider and changeup aren't yet so useful, but he's still made remarkable progress for someone who was primarily an outfielder in college.

It's never going to happen. Van Benschoten has simply lost too much of his stuff due to shoulder problems.

2004 quote: A broken wrist sustained at the end of 2002 limited his ability to hit for power last season…

Loney slipped even further in 2004, finishing with four homers and a 641 OPS in his first year in Double-A. Still, he has overcome the injuries to become a quality regular, if perhaps an overrated one.

2004 quote: The University of Kentucky product throws in the low-90s and has two first-rate breaking balls in his curve and slider. … He's a future No. 3 starter.

We were all in agreement here. Oddly, we all went in different directions after he posted a 4.19 ERA in Triple-A in 2004. I moved him up to #19, BP held him steady at #43 and BA dropped him all of the way out of its top 100.

2004 quote: His velocity was down slightly, but Claussen, acquired from the Yankees in the Aaron Boone trade, made a successful return from Tommy John surgery in 2003.

No one else hopped back on the Claussen train post-surgery. It looked like he was on his way to becoming a reliable middle-of-the-rotation starter when he went 11-11 with a 4.21 ERA for the Reds in 2005, but his shoulder gave out on him after that.

2004 quote: Because he's a below average defensive third baseman and probably won't hit more than 15 homers per season in the majors, Youkilis is going to have to get on base 38-40 percent of the time to be an asset. Expect him to do so.

I was a believer, but I certainly didn't see him ever hitting 29 homers in one season. For the record, his OBP has fallen between .380-.400 in each of his three full seasons.

2004 quote: The native of the Dominican Republic is already an outstanding defensive center fielder and he has the ability to become a very good hitter. As of right now, he projects as a Johnny Damon-type player.

It looks like I'm the standout here, but in 2005, BA moved Pie up to No. 31 after an unexceptional year in high-A ball (.287/.358/.441, 116/39 K/BB ratio in 431 AB). I held him steady at No. 43.

2004 quote: It's time to start getting very concerned. Borchard handled Triple-A pitching fairly well in his go-round with Charlotte, putting up a .272/.349/.498 line in 2002. In 2003, he had the same numbers as the much-maligned Drew Henson, who is actually 16 months younger than Borchard.

Just another case of me not wanting to give up on a prospect. Borchard clearly deserved it at this point.

2004 quote: Choo, signed out Korea in 2000, resembles Snelling as a hitter. He's not quite so gifted, but since he does figure to be more durable, he could have the better career. … Choo could emerge as a Rusty Greer-type hitter.

BP was the highest on Choo in 2003, but I was the one who stuck with him after a mediocre season. That Greer comparison isn't looking so bad right now. Choo hit .309/.397/.549 in 317 at-bats as a 25-year-old last season. Greer hit .314/.410/.487 in 277 at-bats in his age-25 season.

2004 quote: He also has some maturity issues -- he missed nearly two months of last season with a broken left hand sustained while punching a wall -- but since he doesn't turn 21 until January, that's not a major concern.

It turned into a major concern. Sisco's arm problems have done more to doom his career, but he certainly hasn't helped things with his attitude.

2004 quote: He's a future No. 3 starter who might be capable of jumping all the way to the majors this season if he were pitching for a weaker team.

A bad call on my part. The Braves shifted McBride to the pen after he struggled as a starter early on in 2004. He had a decent year for the team out of the pen in 2006, but he developed command problems in 2007 and missed last season following Tommy John surgery. He'll try to make the Tigers as a reliever this spring.

2004 quote: Ramirez, who hit .352 between the Gulf Coast League and the New York-Penn League in 2002, had his OPS fall by more than 200 points last season. Just as much of a concern as the drop off in performance are his attitude and questionable work habits.

Both BA and I dropped Hanley about 20 spots after his rough 2003 season. BP probably did the same thing, but in that case, it meant he was off the list entirely. Oops.

2004 quote: He still needs to refine his changeup and improve his control before he'll be ready for the majors, but there aren't many pitchers in the minors with more upside.

Bautista turned out to be lying about his age. The stuff was certainly there for him to succeed, but I don't think he would have cracked the top 100 with 70 walks in 138 1/3 innings at age 22, rather than age 20.

2004 quote: Loewen has outstanding stuff for a lefty, reaching 95 mph with his fastball and flashing an excellent curve. He's an injury risk, but the Orioles are going to handle him very carefully, giving him every opportunity to become a top starter.

The Orioles did handle him as well as they could have, but Loewen's arm simply wasn't up to the task. He's now going to try to make it as an outfielder in the Jays system.

2004 quote: The Cubs are very excited about Guzman and his hard, sinking fastball, but the shoulder surgery that ended his 2003 season was a significant setback.

BA ranking Guzman 26th even after he had labrum damage repaired illustrates just how much the scouty types liked the right-hander. I think Guzman was overrated right from the start, but who knows what would have happened had he remained healthy. He's still not hopeless now.

2004 quote: There was never much question about McPherson's power potential, but it was still surprising to see him slug nearly .600 at age 22. He's also proven to be a better contact hitter than expected.

That didn't last. We all got too excited about McPherson in part because of the numbers he put up in hitter's parks. I come off as having him pegged better here, but I did have him in the top 15 with everyone else in the 2005 rankings.

2004 quote: A 2000 sixth-round pick, Buchholz managed to have a successful season in 2003 despite pitching with bone chips in his elbow. The right-hander has a 91-93 mph fastball with an excellent curveball.

Buchholz's elbow held up fine, but he began having shoulder problems in 2004. He's now a very good setup man for the Rockies.

2004 quote: Although he doesn't throw much over 90 mph, Cotts has proven to be very difficult to hit in the minors, limiting Southern League hitters to a .173 average last season. … He could be a No. 2 or No. 3 starter if he improves his control. However, walks might always be a problem for him.

The White Sox never gave Cotts another chance to show what he could do as a starter. He made their team as a reliever in 2004, and he had a great season in 2005. However, his command has held him back every other year of his career.

2004 quote: Gomes, who had a 1017 OPS in his 1 ½ pro seasons, had some difficulty in his first year in Double-A before heading to Arizona and leading the AFL in OPS. … Offensively, he resembles Preston Wilson, though hopefully he'll be a little more consistent.

I was mostly alone in my fondness for Gomes. He bounced back to have an outstanding 2005 between Triple-A and the majors, but shoulder problems cooled him off after a quick start in 2006 and he was never able to reestablish himself in his last two years with the Rays. He's still looking for a team for 2009.

2004 quote: Wagner became the first 2003 draft pick to reach the majors when the Reds called him up on July 19. … Because of his low-90s fastball and terrific slider, he's the team's closer of the future.

Wagner wasn't Craig Hansen, and he really would have been an excellent major league reliever had he stayed healthy. That terrific slider didn't stick around for long, though.

2004 quote: He somewhat resembles a young Rondell White, though he's quite a bit more patient at the plate. He also should be more durable. The broken wrist that caused Bay to miss six weeks last season was a fluke. A bigger concern was the torn labrum he had surgically repaired in December.

The injuries did drop Bay's ranking a bit, but he obviously should have been higher than this. BP gets some points for this one.

2004 quote: Riley, one of the game's elite pitching prospects back in 1999, finally made it all the way back from Tommy John surgery last season, going 10-4 with a 3.24 ERA and 158 strikeouts in 152 2/3 innings between three levels.

Riley spent about half of 2004 in the majors with the Orioles. He went on to have his second Tommy John surgery in 2005 and his third in 2006.

2004 quote: Whether he'll do so well against advanced pitching remains to be seen -- he may need a shorter swing -- but since Gutierrez is a fine defender in center field, he has a great deal of potential.

Gutierrez did need his swing reworked, but the change has yet to result in him becoming a quality major league hitter. He still made a lot of sense for Seattle in the J.J. Putz trade.

2004 quote: Santos, a 2002 first-round pick out of a California high school, started his first full pro season in high Single-A and ended it in Double-A. The Diamondbacks have probably been overaggressive with him, resulting in the mediocre numbers, but the fact that he's managed to hold his own is a point in his favor.

Santos never did more than hold his own. He hasn't posted an 800 OPS since Rookie ball in 2002.

2004 quote: A sixth-round pick in 2002, Maine has been perhaps the most effective pitcher in the minors over the last year and a half. … With his low-90s fastball, four-pitch arsenal and fine command, Maine projects as a No. 3 starter.

Maine was something of a disappointment in his first year in Triple-A, so he didn't make any of the lists in 2005. By the time the Mets got him in the Kris Benson deal, he looked like a fringe fifth starter at best.

2004 quote: Guthrie, a 2002 first-round pick out of Stanford, didn't make his pro debut until 2003. He overwhelmed Double-A hitters right from the start, leading to speculation that he could join the Indians in June or July. That never happened, of course, as Triple-A proved to be one massive speed bump.

Guthrie never did master Triple-A, and I really didn't see him helping the Orioles after the Indians let him go prior to the start of 2007. He's pulled off quite a turnaround.

2004 quote: Sleeth, a product of Wake Forest, was the third overall pick in the 2003 draft. He signed for $3.35 million in August, but the Tigers elected to have him rest rather than get him some time in the minors.

Sleeth, who showed promise in 2004 before requiring Tommy John surgery, went 12-21 with a 6.32 ERA in three minor league seasons before retiring after 2007.

2004 quote: The former second-round pick complements an average fastball and slider with a palmball that he can use against both righties and lefties. Many think he'll end up in the bullpen, but he deserves a chance to establish himself as a third or fourth starter.

BP had Arnold ranked 24th in 2003, and BA had him at the bottom of its top 100. However, people began to sour on him as his velocity dropped. I was just a year too late.

2004 quote: Because of the strikeouts, Restovich doesn't figure to be anything more than a .260-.270 hitter in the majors. However, with his 35-homer power, the 1997 second-round pick still looks like he should become an average regular in left field despite a disappointing 2003 season in Triple-A.

I dropped Restovich from 49th to 72nd after his rough year. BA had him 39th the year before, only to erase him entirely. Restovich spent last year in Japan, but after struggling there, it looks like he'll be a part of the White Sox's Triple-A lineup this season.

2004 quote: Valdez … used a mid-90s fastball and a quality slider to limit South Atlantic League hitters to a .213 average. His changeup is below average right now, but Valdez has No. 2 starter potential.

Valdez made it all of the way from A-ball to the majors in 2004, but he's been injured as often as not since. If he makes it now, it will be as a reliever.

2004 quote: Zumaya overpowered Midwest League hitters with a mid-90s fastball last season. The 2002 11th-round pick is still quite raw, but his curveball and changeup both have the potential to become plus pitches.

It's surprising that Zumaya didn't crack the BA list given his stuff. They did have him ranked third in the Detroit system, but the Tigers placed just two in the top 100 that year.

2004 quote: The 22-year-old doesn't quite have (Kevin) Cash's defensive skills, but he is very good with the glove and he has far more offensive ability. He could hit .260 with 20 homers per year in the majors.

I had forgotten just how high everyone was on Quiroz. His 2003 season stands out as a major fluke now. Throw out the 890 mark then and his career minor league OPS is right around 700. He's hit .201/.266/.269 in 234 at-bats as a major leaguer.

2004 quote: The numbers aren't pretty, but Wellemeyer has a major league arm and he was dominant in his early appearances for the Cubs, striking out 12 in 7 2/3 scoreless innings during May. … With a mid-90s fastball and plus changeup, Wellemeyer is talented enough to succeed as a starter or a reliever.

It looks like this one is going to turn out just fine after all. Wellemeyer was a personal favorite of mine. BA had him ranked 13th in a Cubs system that placed six in the top 100.

2004 quote: He doesn't hit for the power one wants to see from a third baseman, but Tracy has batted well over .300 each year since being drafted in the seventh round in 2001. There's no reason to think he won't keep it up in the majors, and he'll belt out enough doubles to make himself a solid regular if he stays at the hot corner.

Tracy wasn't especially highly regarded by the scouting community because of his mediocre defense and lack of home run ability, but the power did come, as he hit 27 homers in his second big-league season in 2005. Unfortunately, knee problems struck in 2007 and prematurely forced him to first base last season. He should stick around for several more years, but he may be more of a role player.

2004 quote: A borderline defender in center, Swisher figures to move to a corner now that Mark Kotsay is ahead of him in Oakland. His bat won't be so intriguing in right or left, but he still figures to become a solid .280/.370/.460 regular.

I was ahead of the curve here. BA ranked Swisher sixth in an Oakland system that placed just two in the top 100. However, by 2005, we all had Swisher in the 15-30 range.

2004 quote: Rauch, one of the top prospects in all of baseball following a brilliant 2000 season, isn't yet back to where he was before hurting his shoulder in 2001. … He remains a good bet to make it as a fourth or fifth starter and he could be something more.

This was another case of me standing by a prospect long after everyone else. Rauch hasn't quite justified this ranking, but of the 13 guys in the White Sox chain that BA ranked ahead of him, Chris Young is the only one especially likely to have a better career (Ryan Sweeney and maybe Brian Anderson are also possibilities).

2004 quote: The No. 1 overall pick in the 2002 draft, Bullington put up quality numbers in his pro debut but was something of a disappointment. He lost three mph off his fastball, which was typically in the 91-94 mph range while he was at Ball State…

Bullington never bounced back, and he probably wasn't going to be anything spectacular either way.

2004 quote: Ignore his 2003 numbers. Nelson, who hit .289 with 20 HR and 116 RBI in 2002, suffered a broken hamate bone at the end of April and never recovered his power.

BA dropped Nelson from 23rd in 2003 to 48th after his poor season. I ignored the numbers and actually moved him up slightly from 88th to 82nd. Nelson's power did come back in 2004, but he also started striking out more than ever before 2008 was the first season since 2002 in which he finished with an 800 OPS in the minors (.286/.380/.480 for Triple-A Nashville).

2004 quote: Despite a disappointing strikeout rate, he was very successful for Huntsville until an elbow injury shut him down. It's possible that he'll end up needing Tommy John surgery, but the Brewers hope it can be avoided.

Jones pulled off the trifecta: labrum surgery in 2004, rotator cuff surgery in 2005 and Tommy John surgery in 2007. He did return to the mound last year and go 1-6 with a 5.71 ERA in the minors.

2004 quote: The Rangers have him focusing on improving his slider. If he comes up with a decent one, he'll be a No. 3 starter.

A really odd case. Dominguez went 5-7 with a 4.15 ERA for the Rangers between 2005 and 2006 -- which is quite good for a Texas pitcher -- but the team was really disappointed by his attitude and shipped him off to Oakland prior to the 2006 season. He went on to have a very disappointing year for the Athletics' Triple-A club, and he hasn't been heard from since.

2004 quote: Nivar is primarily a singles hitter right now, but he is a very good one and he should add more doubles.

I really wish I didn't fall for this one. Nivar did nothing but hit for average in nice environments for hitters. BA ranked him third in the Texas system, one spot ahead of Dominguez, but neither cracked the top 100.

2004 quote: The fractured elbow that cost Cain half of last season also dropped him behind Merkin Valdez on the Giants' top-10 list, but the 2002 first-round pick has at least as much upside as any pitcher in the team's farm system.

Cain went on to have an outstanding 2004 season and was universally regarded as one of the game's top pitching prospects entering 2005.

2004 quote: Brownlie was a candidate to be the first pick in the 2002 draft before hurting his shoulder during his junior season at Rutgers. He ended up going 21st overall to the Cubs and held out for a while before signing in March. Brownlie pitched well in his first action as a pro, but he was shut down in July as a precaution because of more shoulder troubles.

Brownlie lost his best stuff to shoulder problems, and while he's still trying, it doesn't look like he'll ever reach the majors.

2004 quote: Although he doesn't do any one thing especially well, Shoppach could be similar in quality both offensively and defensively to the catcher he might replace in Boston in 2005, Jason Varitek.

That was certainly a bit strong. If Shoppach was really similar to Varitek, then he should have been ranked an awful lot higher. Shoppach wasn't given a chance to establish himself in Boston, but he's looking at a decent career as a regular now.

2004 quote: Song… probably doesn't deserve this ranking unless he regains the velocity he had back when he was a Red Sox prospect. The Korean right-hander rarely touched 90 mph last season, leading to the drop in his strikeout rate.

I should have listened to my own words. Song didn't regain his velocity and never did reach the majors. He's pitching in Korea now.

2004 quote: Hart… had a disappointing 2003, posting an OPS 50 points lower than his career total and making 32 errors at third base. Hart is really a first baseman and may never make the adjustment to third, which could lead to him being switched to left field.

Hart was viewed as more of a prospect after 2002, but even then, I was quite a bit higher on him than anyone else (I had him 54th, BA 91st, BP NR). In 2005, I had him 44th and he was again unranked by BA.

2004 quote: Nippert flashed a mid-90s fastball and a ferocious curveball while striking out a batter an inning for Scottsdale. His changeup is getting better, leaving his health as the only major question mark.

Nippert had Tommy John surgery in 2004 and missed the first third of 2005. He's looking like a fringe fifth starter these days.

2004 quote: The 10th overall pick in the 2003 draft, Stewart has the potential to be a top-notch offensive third baseman. His glove isn't so solid, but he has plenty of time to work on his defense and the Rockies are going to do everything in their power to keep him at third base.

After three straight uninspiring seasons, Stewart took a big step forward in 2008. Whether he's a third baseman is still in question.

2004 quote: Krynzel's stock was as high as it's ever been after a strong first half in 2003 (he came in at No. 49 on the midseason top 100 list), but the 2000 first-round pick struggled in August and September, ruining what chance he had of making an impact in the majors in 2004.

I wasn't Krynzel's biggest fan, but I overrated him. He struck out way too much for the kind of player he was.

2004 quote: Johnson's defense at shortstop has improved quite a bit over the last couple of seasons, but it's still expected that he'll end up at third base or in the outfield. Look for an offensive breakthrough in 2004 or 2005.

Johnson moved to the outfield in 2004 and busted out in 2005. The surprise is that he's managed to make it as a second baseman, and even though the Braves were willing to move him back to the outfield to make room for Rafael Furcal, they do feel he's capable there.

BA gets big points here for ranking King Felix so high after just 69 innings as a pro.

BP's gutsier picks have proven to be a mixed bag. I think Encarnacion will end up justifying that ranking, and it's good that they gave Bush some attention, even if placing him 39th was excessive.

Note that Ryan Howard is nowhere to be found on any lists. He hit .304/.374/.514 for Single-A Clearwater in 2003, but he was already 23 and he had a 151/50 K/BB ratio in the process.

In the end, it looks like Baseball America had the best list. They get points for placing Upton second, Sizemore in the top 10 and Felix No. 30. I had some victories (Youkilis, Bedard and Adrian Gonzalez among them), but also more ugly misses than BA did.