Skeptimediais a commentary on
mass media treatment of issues concerning science, the
paranormal, and the supernatural.

Antivaxxer Plague

....antivaxxers are
potentially the Number One health hazard in America.--Phil Plait*

On this
day (26 Oct) thirty-two years ago, the last naturally occurring
case of indigenous
smallpox (Variola minor) was diagnosed in Ali Maow Maalin, a
hospital cook in Merca, Somalia.*

1

26 Oct 2009. A few weeks ago I had
an
exchange with "Jan" about colloidal silver, vaccines, and
the post hoc
fallacy. Most reasonable people would probably consider it a
waste of time to engage someone whose first words to you are:

If I didn't think that writing you
was a waste of time because of your pea-sized brain and vision I
wouldn't be writing.

I know Jan is trying
to insult me, but her words are such a jumble of
unintentional self-deprecating humor that I found myself
laughing instead of getting riled. Anyway, I made no headway in
getting Jan to think about how easy and natural it is to form
beliefs about causal connections based on flimsy evidence and
how easy it is to find confirmation for our beliefs. She was
having none of it. She knows colloidal silver is the key to her
health and she knows that vaccines are harmful. She's armed with
anecdotes to prove her beliefs. Nothing I had to say about the
value of scientific studies
sunk in. To people like
Jan, it is irrelevant that scientific studies demonstrate that vaccines are
safe and effective. No amount of data showing that the odds of dying from the flu are greater than the odds of dying from the flu shot have any weight with the Jans of the world. They know
what they know and they know they're right. One anecdote trumps
a thousand scientific studies.

Of course, the news
media whether it be Fox (that arm of the Republican Party) or
the liberal elite media (that arm of the Democratic Party) report the anecdotes, not the scientific studies. Two
recent stories illustrate the kind of evidence Jan counts and
the kind that the media thrive on.

One story involves a
young woman who allegedly developed a weird neurological disorder (dystonia)
ten days after getting a flu shot. The nature of the story makes
it clear that there must be some connection between the young woman's health problems
and the flu
shot. The reporters don't have to come right out and say that
the shot caused her problems. That's clearly implied by having
the report at all. Reporters
aren't paid to encourage viewers to think, however. So, don't
expect them to investigate other possible causes of the young
woman's problems. They won't report that 9 days before her
illness, she drank 20 shots of tequila. [For those of you who
can't figure it out for yourselves, I'm making this stuff up
about the nine days of Christmas for illustration purposes.] Eight days before her
illness, someone spiked her drink with ecstasy. Seven days
before her illness, she ate a hamburger at McDonalds. Six days
before her illness, she spent time in a toxic building where the
DMV is located. Five days before her illness, she fell out of
bed. Four days before her illness, she drank some bottled water
that a friend gave her. Three days before her illness she
watched a whole movie in fast forward mode. Two days before her
illness, she took a neuroleptic for facial pain. And the day
before she got ill, she rode a roller coaster for three hours.
Why didn't the reporters note these things? Why didn't they go
back eleven days and beyond to see if there might not be
something people might causally connect to the illness? Because
the flu shot is the current bogeyman. Next year it could be
ground beef. In any case, the odds are near zero that this
woman's health problems are
indicative of dystonia as reported, according to the
Dystonia Medical Research Foundation, or
that
the flu vaccine had anything to do with her (most likely)
psychogenic disorder. For the full scoop on this story,
which may be
the worst reporting ever, see
Orac and
Steven
Novella.

The other story is
about a man who developed an autoimmune disorder (Guillain-Barré
syndrome or GBS) after some shots.
He says that last June he got a tetanus shot and a pneumonia shot,
and they caused paralysis in his legs and weakness in his arms.
No mention was made of how much time elapsed between shots and
symptoms; nor was any effort made to identify the 1,001 other things
that happened before the symptoms occurred. How can he be
certain it was the shots that caused his problems? He can't.
According to the
Mayo clinic:

Guillain-Barré syndrome is an
uncommon disorder in which your body's immune system attacks
your nerves. Weakness and numbness in your extremities are
usually the first symptoms. These sensations can quickly
spread, eventually paralyzing your whole body.

The exact cause of Guillain-Barré
syndrome is unknown, but it is often preceded by an infectious
illness such as a respiratory infection or the stomach flu.
Luckily, Guillain-Barré syndrome is
relatively rare, affecting only 1 or 2 people per 100,000.

In its most severe form, Guillain-Barré
syndrome is a medical emergency requiring hospitalization.
There's no known cure for Guillain-Barré
syndrome, but several treatments can ease symptoms and reduce
the duration of the illness. And most people do recover
completely.

Most people recover
completely. Yet, if you read some of the hysterical writings of
anti-vaxxers you'd think most people who get GBS get it from
vaccinations and then die from it.

Obviously, an
emotional anecdote will be more persuasive than a dry report on
scientific studies and statistical probabilities of being harmed versus being
protected by a vaccination. Also, the fear of possible harm
carries more weight that the hope of possible protection from
harm. Further complicating the data is the values issue that's
involved here. Getting vaccinated or not affects the whole
community, not just oneself. For most people, protecting
themselves and their children is a higher priority than
protecting strangers. By getting a vaccination and avoiding the
flu I not only protect myself but prevent myself from infecting
others who aren't vaccinated and who might be greatly harmed by
the flu. You might say, well, if they aren't vaccinated that's
their tough luck if you give them the flu. That's true. It is
their tough luck, but many of these unvaccinated people will be
children whose parents have been frightened into not vaccinating
their kids. Many will be people with weakened immune systems. So
what, you might say. Let natural selection pick these folks off.
If it was just one flu shot, I'd say why bother trying to
persuade the antivaxxers of anything. But it's not
just one shot, it's all shots, and by having ten or twenty
percent or more of the population avoiding vaccinations the whole
community is put at risk. Natural selection is always at work,
and the greater the spread of a virus, the greater the
probability of new strains of the virus developing. Plus, the
newly born are vulnerable to many preventable diseases and can
be protected by
herd immunity until they are old enough to get
vaccinated.

Anyway, the issue
with the antivaxxers is more a matter of emotion than evidence.
It doesn't matter that 28 pregnant women in the US have already
died from the H1N1 virus this season (dubbed "swine flu" by the media) and no pregnant woman has been harmed by the
vaccine. It doesn't matter to antivax parents that the chance of
their child being harmed by a vaccination is near zero. It
doesn't matter that there is an almost certain benefit to their
child and the community at large by having the child vaccinated.
It doesn't matter that 43 children in the US have died recently
from swine flu*
and none have been harmed by the swine flu vaccination. They
have an anecdote: an 8-year-old boy died a week after his
flu vaccination. It must have been the vaccine that killed him
even if health department officials deny it. Their denial is
proof they're covering up something. And so it goes.

What's interesting,
though, is that anecdotes that show harm done from not
having children vaccinated have no effect on the antivaxxers.
The fact that
four-week-old Dana McCaffery died from whooping cough has no
weight with antivaxxers. No infant should get whooping cough any
more, but this
unfortunate child happened to live in an area where there is
very little vaccination compliance and was provided no herd
immunity. (Infants aren't given the vaccination for this
preventable disease until they are six weeks old.) As one blogger put it: "The fact that other parents didn’t vaccinate
their kids gave that little girl a death sentence."*

I find it interesting
that in this case the media reported on the event accurately,
but the video of the reporting has been taken down. My guess is
that it was the antivaxxers who initiated the take-down.

2

Jan's alternative to
the flu vaccine is
colloidal silver, a popular panacea with the alternative
crowd. According to
Marilynn Marchione of the Associated Press, the federal Agency for
Toxic Substances and Disease Registry says silver "may cause
harmful health effects," depending on the amount and type of
exposure. Marchione also notes that the
FDA has issued a warning that scam artists are flooding the
Internet with bogus claims about preventing or treating swine
flu. The one thing these scam artists have in common is that
they are taking advantage of the fear many people have about the
dangers of vaccinations.

Fraudulent products
emerged shortly after swine flu did last spring, at the rate of
about 10 a day, according to Alyson Saben, head of the FDA's
swine flu consumer fraud team. The products include air
sterilizers, photon machines that deliver "energy waves,"
supplements of all sorts, and shampoos and masks that can't
protect against viruses. (As of 20/11/09 the FDA lists 143
fraudulent products on its
Fraudulent 2009 H1N1 Influenza Products List.)
Dr. Andrew
Weil leads the pack with his
Immune Support Formula. The FDA warned Weil about making the
following claim on his website: "...during the flu season, I
suggest taking a daily antioxidant, multivitamin-mineral
supplement [despite the evidence that to do so could aggravate cancer and reduce lifespan], as well as astragalus, a well-known immune-boosting
herb that can help ward off colds and flu. You might also
consider ... the Weil Immune Support Formula which contains both
astragalus and immune-supportive polypore mushrooms." In
response to the FDA, Weil issued a statement saying the website
content "was primarily educational" about how to avoid the flu,
and that he had directed his website team to remove and review
it for compliance with federal rules.

Tamiflu and Relenza
are the only drugs recommended for treating swine flu, but there
are several
fake Tamiflu products being sold on the Internet. There is also good reason to question the reliability of the data supporting Tamiflu's effectiveness, according to Dr. Ben Goldacre.

It's bad enough that
the usual suspects are preying on the fears of people. Marchione notes:

Rogue Web sites are not the only ones trying to cash in on
flu fears. Makers of some well-established products are making
claims that may be close to the line, the FDA says.

This week, the makers of Dial Soap, Kleenex, Clorox and
other big brands launched a joint promotional campaign costing
up to $1 million. The FDA is reviewing the campaign, which
includes a video that says:

Germs are tiny organisms that can cause disease.
According to the CDC, up to 80 percent of infectious
diseases, like the flu, are spread by your hands. That's why
frequent, proper handwashing is so important in preventing
spread of the flu, other viruses and germs. An antibacterial
soap like Dial Complete foaming hand wash kills 99.9 percent
of germs.

Flu is caused by a virus, so killing bacteria is of
uncertain benefit.

In this week's New
England Journal of Medicine, three FDA doctors caution
against prescribing ribavirin for swine flu patients. The drug
has been approved in the U.S. for treating hepatitis C and
respiratory syncytial virus, but not swine flu. It can cause "a
dangerous type of anemia and cannot be used in pregnant women
because of the risk of birth defects," said the FDA's Dr. Debra
Birnkrant.

Perhaps the news from
Nova Scotia had some effect:
Nova Scotia reports 80 new H1N1 cases, as may the sad news
from Toronto: "Public health officials confirmed that the sudden
death of 13-year-old Evan Frustaglio was a direct result of
swine flu."

Wallace, Amy. (2009). An Epidemic of Fear: How Panicked Parents
Skipping Shots Endangers Us All, Wired. To hear his
enemies talk, you might think
Paul Offit is the most hated man in America. A pediatrician in
Philadelphia, he is the coinventor of a rotavirus vaccine that
could save tens of thousands of lives every year. Yet
environmental activist Robert F. Kennedy Jr. slams Offit as a
“biostitute” who whores for the pharmaceutical industry. Actor
Jim Carrey calls him a profiteer and distills the doctor’s
attitude toward childhood vaccination down to this chilling
mantra: “Grab ‘em and stab ‘em.” Recently, Carrey and his
girlfriend, Jenny McCarthy, went on CNN’s Larry King Live
and singled out Offit’s vaccine, RotaTeq, as one of many
unnecessary vaccines, all administered, they said, for just one
reason: “Greed.”

....So what has this
award-winning 58-year-old scientist done to elicit such venom?
He boldly states — in speeches, in journal articles, and in his
2008 book
Autism’s False Prophets — that vaccines do not cause
autism or autoimmune disease or any of the other chronic
conditions that have been blamed on them. He supports this
assertion with meticulous evidence. And he calls to account
those who promote bogus treatments for autism — treatments that
he says not only don’t work but often cause harm.