3. Rhys Hoskins – This is a new tier. This tier goes from here until Bellinger. I call this tier, “The rich kid at an otherwise sad Soap Box Derby.” No one likes the kid whose parents buys him a Trans Am soap box derby car, that’s all kitted out with Kit from Knight Rider, but that little fat brat is still gonna win the race and remind everyone of the bully from Pee Wee’s Big Advernture. Okay, I might’ve added some of my own neuroses on that. So, these guys are the ‘rich kids’ at an otherwise sad Soap Box Derby. The Soap Box Derby is the 1st basemen. This is the saddest I can ever remember 1st base. Back in the late-90’s, were all future baseball players so super jazzed by outfielders and middle infielders that no one in Little League wanted to play 1st base? Speaking of 90’s outfielders, what if the whole time Sammy Sosa was in blackface and now it’s his real face? Hmm, right? Anyway, if you’ve read Razzball for an Urban Dictionary minute, you know that I prefer punting shallow positions. Here’s the why: if you draft the best catcher, it’s the same as drafting the 10th best. With that in mind, if you draft the 25th best 1st baseman off the board, it might be the same as drafting the 5th best one. I’m not going to advocate punting the top 1st baseman though. If you can get Hoskins or Rizzo or some of these others I will get to, then it’s fine. It’s not like Hoskins and J.T. Realmuto are analogous. Though, I will get into the middle of this post where I’m telling you to avoid until some later ones. As for Rhys, I was thisclose to putting Hoskins in the top 20 overall, but his splits were so goofy bad I couldn’t bring myself to do it. Goofy is really the right word here too, because he’s a righty who struggled mightily to hit lefties (.192), and, when he saw an offspeed pitch, he corkscrewed himself into the ground like Goofy. Everything else by Hoskins is a chef’s kiss from a character Tony Shalhoub would play. 2019 Projections: 103/38/115/.252/5 in 567 ABs

4. Anthony Rizzo – He is suffering from being lumped in with Kris Bryant. If you ask someone, they’ll say the Cubs had a down year because Bryant and Rizzo had poor years. Um, no, Bryant did. Rizzo’s year wasn’t elite, but he played in 153 games, knocked in 100+ RBIs, hit .283, stole six bags and lowered his strikeout rate. His HR/FB% was down, which I think accounts for why he hit 25 homers vs. his usual 30+. Hopefully, this year Rizzo doesn’t have a down year while Bryant bounces back. I just made it happen by writing it out, didn’t I? Damn. Also, went over him in the video at the top of the page. 2019 Projections: 91/33/108/.287/7 in 578 ABs

5. Cody Bellinger – Last year, I ranked Bellinger in the top 20 and that was a total bust. I mean, okay, he lowered his strikeout rate. Scored around same number of runs, stole more bases, hit about the same average, hit more line drives, upped his contact in general…Hmm, he did get platooned though, right? Wait, he played in 162 games. Was he a defensive replacement for 162 games? I thought he struggled. Oh, I see, he hit less homers. His fly balls and HR/FB% came down. That’s not a great sign, but by no means a pattern that can’t easily revert to his previous year’s numbers when he hit 39 homers. I’m praying he makes it to me in a few leagues, because I’m all-in again. Allinagainger? That just rolls off the tongue! Tongueinger? Okay, I’m done. 2019 Projections: 86/33/95/.263/10 in 533 ABs

6. Joey Gallo – This is a new tier. This tier goes from here until Merrifield. I call this tier, “I forced a bot to watch 1,000 hours of Law & Order.” If you forced a bot to watch 1,000 hours of Law & Order, your bot could now solve crimes that involved only two suspects and one suspect was obvious. So, great if obvious, but also how useful is that? That’s this tier. These guys are pretty obvious who they are, but how useful will they be? As for Gallo, if you just look at hard contact, exit velocity, barrels per at-bat and, well, the super sexy stats, Gallo looks like he only needs to cut his strikeouts to be an MVP candidate. But his strikeouts are still absurd. 2019 Projections: 81/42/90/.211/5 in 515 ABs

10. Whit Merrifield – It’s not just you, it’s weird for me to think of Merrifield as a 1st baseman and to put him in this tier. How is this guy different from the rest of this tier, or as the Hebrews say, ma nishtana tier. The rest of these guys are 30+ homers, 10-ish steal guys. Merrifield is a possible 30+ steals, 10+ homer guy. Kinda same diff. They’re both 40+ on the fantasy scale. Is there a fantasy scale? Let’s say there is! However, I’m legitimately concerned Merrifield is about to start his decline as he turns 30 years old. Hate relying on a 30-year-old to steal, and his fly balls and HR/FB% is a bit atrosh. 2019 Projections: 82/10/59/.291/28 in 597 ABs

11. Jesus Aguilar – This is a new tier. This tier goes from here until Profar. I call this tier, “Vietnamese Water Spaghetti.” I heard someone call pho Vietnamese water spaghetti and I can’t figure out if that’s racist or brilliant. Like Vietnamese Water Spaghetti, I can’t figure out exactly if drafting these 1st basemen is brilliant or terrible. As for Aguilar, I believe I’m higher on Jesus than a televangelist flying above a congregation on a high wire, so I think I need to explain why I’m praising Jesus more than Joel Osteen. His fly ball rate was just under 41%, not crazy high, read: repeatable. His HR/FB% was 23.8%. A bit high, maybe he’s closer to 21%. Miller Park will not hurt him. But if we were to drop fly balls down to 39% and HR/FB% down to 20%, then he has 29 HRs. This is going off numbers when he only had 492 ABs, because he wasn’t even a starter in April. That should give him at least one more homer. So, that’s artificially lowering him and we’re only at 30 homers. He had the 45th best contact in the majors, just above Lindor. His exit velocity was the same as Arenado. Vs. lefties, he hit .282 and .271 vs. righties, so no splits. He upped his walks, lowered his Ks from the previous year and his Ks were 25.3%, which in today’s game is practically Joe DiMaggio levels. He is basically Jose Abreu minus three years. I will call him Jose Abr-new. Or he will be terrible, as he had been every year prior to last year. Also, went over him in the video at the top of the page. 2019 Projections: 85/33/94/.268 in 551 ABs

12. Max Muncy – Already gave you my Max Muncy sleeper. It was written Down Under, which is what I call my crawl space. 2019 Projections: 81/33/87/.268/4 in 423 ABs

13. Matt Olson – I was trying to think the best way to describe Olson. I settled on it’s like if you get deathly ill on an airplane. You fall over from pain. You can barely see straight. Then someone stands up and says they’re a doctor. They stay with you, comfort you and get you to a place where the pain isn’t so bad. You’re even able to sit up and eat a cheese and crackers box for $9, because it was a domestic flight and that’s all they have. Finally, you land and the doctor talks to the EMT in the airport and explains all that was wrong, as you say goodbye, you ask, “Hey, I never found out, what kind of doctor are you?” “I’m a Witch Doctor.” That’s Matt Olson. He’s a Witch Doctor. He’s 8th overall for Hard Contact; he hits a ton of fly balls; he pulls everything; he averaged 408 feet on his homers; he could hit 40+ homers, and you should feel completely safe with him. Then you see he hit only four homers vs. lefties and you’re like, “WITCH DOCTOR?!” 2019 Projections: 78/32/84/.254/2 in 545 ABs

14. Jurickson Profar – Here’s what I said this offseason, “(Profar was) traded to the A’s. The Rangers decided on this with a little added Wisdom. Their new 3rd baseman. Here’s what I said previously about Profar, “He’s a 20/20 threat at shortstop with a likely .280 average over the course of next season. He was born in 1993. You remember 1993, it was the year you got your driver’s license and told your mom you’re going to follow Sister Hazel on tour. Profar is the first player to reach the majors born in 1993. Though, I think Alfonso Soriano briefly claimed to be born in 1993. In case you’re new to this whole “fantasy thing,” Profar’s going to be a 1st or 2nd round talent very soon. If you’re new to reading, when I put quotes around fantasy thing, I was being snarky. If you’re new to the word snarky–well, moving on. Profar is going to be a star. His upside is 30/30.” And that’s me quoting me! There’s only one small catch with that, I wrote it in 2012! I even forgot how crazy I was for Profar back in the day. Due to how long it took Profar to finally emerge, and why I say always go for a sure thing vs. a prospect, he doesn’t have that speed upside anymore. His previous year of 20/10/.254 seems repeatable, and maybe he can build on it slightly. Though, thinking of Oakland as a launching pad feels misguided, and he hits a bunch of ground balls vs. fly balls.” And that’s me quoting me! 2019 Projections: 72/21/80/.271/11 in 546 ABs

15. Robinson Cano – This is a new tier. This tier goes from here until Braun. I call this tier, “Audemars are yesterday.” The tier name is from Jay-Z’s song Off That. That’s how I feel about this tier. 1st basemen are AF. In this instance, AF stands for AWFUL, and I’m off these guys. As for Cano, when he was traded, I gave you my Robinson Cano fantasy. I wrote it while dressed as Gritty. 2019 Projections: 84/24/92/.286/1 in 588 ABs

16. Matt Carpenter – A 33-year-old who just had a career year? Yeah, I’m off that. 2019 Projections: 91/23/77/.252/3 in 498 ABs

17. Eric Hosmer – Be nice to write off Hosmer’s entire collapse last year on the Padres and Petco, but, and this should make you laugh, his launch angle last year was -1.2. El oh WUT?! His launch angle was a foul tip into the catcher’s mitt?! HA! Yeah, let someone else try for the bounce back, I’m off that. 2019 Projections: 80/20/84/.258/5 in 605 ABs

18. Joey Votto – If you see Votto ranked in the top 7 for 1st basemen, I wouldn’t use those rankings. They are either OBP rankings, or from 2015. 2019 Projections: 75/20/83/.281/2 in 541 ABs

19. Daniel Murphy – Here’s what I said this offseason, “(Murphy) signed with the Rockies. The Rockies hate fantasy baseballers (<–my mom’s term!) so much they refuse to give any rookie a chance ever. Ramiel Tapia and Garrett Hampson will be playing more games of Mancala on the bench this year than baseball. Sure, the Rockies are saying Murphy will play 1st base, and he might. On occasion. Or even if it’s four times a week. Hampson will still be benched randomly a few times a week and be untenable in shallower fantasy leagues. As for Murphy, he’s fine. Coors won’t hurt, but it’s not magically going to make him younger. Your beer goggles are too thick.” And that’s me quoting me! 2019 Projections: 72/22/56/.306/4 in 487 ABs

20. Miguel Cabrera – I could see a possible bounce back for Miggy, but if I had to list how many things have to go right, we’d be back on that Ayn Rand prose and I’m off that. 2019 Projections: 70/20/81/.288 in 503 ABs

21. Ryan Braun – So weird that after he was suspended he wasn’t able to stay healthy for longer than nine games in a row, and by ‘weird’ I mean completely predictable. 2019 Projections: 55/21/69/.261/9 in 412 ABs

22. Ian Desmond – This is a new tier. This tier goes from here until Alonso. I call this tier, “Homemade charcoal water.” There’s this new craze, drinking charcoal water. It’s good for you. It’s a powerful detoxifier! Boost your energy! However, if you soak charcoal briquets in water then drink it, it’s not good. Though, if you’re feeling sluggish and chug homemade charcoal water, you might feel the sudden urge to run to the bathroom, so there’s some energy there in a pinch. That’s this tier. They are likely not good for you, but might provide the illusion of a boost in a pinch. They’re Kingsford soaked in water. As for Desmond, I love Coors, but he feels like on the verge of falling off a cliff, and I don’t want to strap an anvil to my back. However, Coors. In a pinch, I can see him, but I don’t think you’re going to get desired results. His ground balls have become goofy bad. Or maybe that’s Wile E. Coyote bad since we’re talking anvils. 2019 Projections: 72/23/81/.244/11 in 509 ABs

23. Yuli Gurriel – He’s the stereotypical guy I’d draft in a pinch, i.e., place charcoal briquets in a jug of water at a high-end department store. I hate average plays and that’s who Yuli is, ya dig? Speaking of which, if you were to dig, you’d get to Asia, where Yuli would be ranked even lower. 2019 Projections: 71/15/83/.294/4 in 544 ABs

24. Yonder Alonso – Here’s what I said this offseason, “Traded to the White Sox. Some have speculated that the trade of Yonder means Machado is now going to the White Sox, because Yonder is Machado’s brother-in-law. So much to unpack from this I don’t even know where to begin. Why would he want to play with his in-law? Reminds me of the old joke, difference between in-laws and outlaws? Outlaws are wanted. Next point, how the hell did he marry Yonder’s sister? Were they at a game? Why not trade for Mike Trout’s brother and Bryce Harper’s dad? Does Trout have a brother? Trade for his sister. Maybe his nephew. Who cares, get someone in the family. Finally, why would Yonder be any sort of key to Machado? Did Machado ever express wanting to play for the Indians for the last two years? So, Yonder went to the White Sox, and will split time with Abreu at 1B/DH, until Abreu is traded, and, if he’s not, there’s room for both Abreu and Yonder in the lineup.” And that’s me quoting me! 2019 Projections: 61/25/74/.244 in 524 ABs

25. Luke Voit – This is a new tier. This tier goes from here until Goodrum. I call this tier, “The casting couch.” Imagine deep-sea fishing were an Olympic event and we were going for the gold. In order to go for that gold, we’d need to be comfortable on the boat, so we’d want to be casting from a couch. This is that tier. We’re fishing for deep guys and we’re going for the gold. If your league is shallower, I could see this tier above the charcoal water tier. It depends on what you’re going to be looking at on waivers if you need to drop one of these guys. As for Voit, here’s my Luke Voit sleeper, I wrote it while cruising Main Street for a mom & pop hardware store. 2019 Projections: 72/29/88/.268/1 in 509 ABs

26. Trey Mancini – I was thisclose to dropping goose pimples on him while playing I Used To Love H.E.R. by Common and writing another sleeper post on him, but didn’t want to embarrass myself (further). As with other guys in this tier, I’m going to try him, but I could see dropping him by mid-April. 2019 Projections: 73/23/70/.253 in 562 ABs

27. Tyler White – Bit surprised I didn’t write a Tyler White sleeper post. It’s even more surprising coming from me, since if I were to write a Tyler White sleeper post, I would be the one writing it. See how that works? Why I didn’t go there? He’s old, the Astros have burned me in the past with a prospect 1B who failed to live up to expectations (A.J. Reed) and the Astros are the type of team that would platoon him. And that’s me Whitesplaining. Any hoo! I still like White — raycess! — but there’s some potential problems. Also, went over him in the video at the top of the page. 2019 Projections: 61/21/68/.261/2 in 503 ABs

28. Jake Bauers – Here’s what I said this offseason, “(Bauers) went the other way to the Indians. Yes, that gives the Indians Bauer and Bauers. The Indians are Bauer’ing up! Bauer & Bauers sounds like an 80’s CBS show, except one of the two characters is really unlikable. As for Bauers, I can’t believe the Rays traded him. What are they doing? Yo, Rays, you are already so young and cheap, do you really need to trade away Bauers? C’mon. The 2022 Rays will be trading away fetuses. I like Bauers for fantasy, and he should be in the lead for a starting left field job. His one drawback for fantasy is he’s a bit of a floor player vs. a big ceiling titan of industry. Think 15/15/.260, or a poor man’s Benintendi. I will call him, Ben Good-intentionsy. Hmm, maybe not.” And that’s me quoting me! One word of caution, some of the projections for this tier seem better than guys above them, but there’s a lot more risk in this tier. 2019 Projections: 54/14/61/.259/19 in 516 ABs

29.Peter Alonso – The Mets hype goes like this, “You know about a player, due to New York, but, because it’s the Mets, you figure he’ll be terrible.” Peter Alonso? His hype feels more positive than usual, which makes me want to think he’s going to be even more disappointing. Can he hit negative homers? Will he break camp with the team? Will you draft Yonder Alonso, thinking it’s Peter Alonso, because there’s a spider crawling on your computer screen during the draft? I have questions, y’all! I don’t think we’re going to know for sure on P. Alonso until mid-to-end of March. My guess is the Mets will say all the right things about giving Alonso a chance to win the 1st base job, and then he’ll be demoted until June. Then, because of the Mets, he’ll hurt himself in the minors and we never see him. There’s also the very real problem of his strikeouts in Triple-A (26%). He can squash that problem, but it’s going to take some adjusting. In March, there’s a chance I could move Alonso way up in the rankings, but for now, I’m guessing 200-ish ABs and a late-June promotion. 2019 Projections: 61/22/71/.264 in 404 ABs

30. C.J. Cron – Here’s what I said this offseason on Cron, “Twins claimed him off waivers, because the Rays DFA’d Cron after he hit 30 homers and cost next-to-nothing. Gentlemen, this is a good time to point out you should never sleep with your boss’ daughter like Cron repeatedly seems to do. Either that or his shit-eating grin is just too much for any organization. I think there’s at least a half a percentage point that the Rays didn’t designated him for assignment, but said to someone, “He’s our designated hitter,” and the league misheard, and the Rays just didn’t care enough to correct them.” And that’s me quoting me! 2019 Projections: 64/31/80/.249/2 in 517 ABs

31. Niko Goodrum – Every guy in this tier could’ve got a sleeper post. Yes, it’s a weird time right now when I’m talking about sleepers in the 1st basemen. As for Niko, I positioned him at the end of favorable tiers in, well, I think every hitter ranking, because he’s eligible in all of them. He looks capable of 20 steals, definitely has more speed than, say, Willy Adames. His power, though, Goodrum’s not top shelf and his average may be, appropriately, .151. 2019 Projections: 71/16/74/.234/17 in 527 ABs

32. Justin Smoak – This is a new tier. This tier goes from here until Belt. I call this tier, “As my urologist says, ‘Around the corner from the lemonade shop is a fudge depot.'” This tier is filled with a bunch of number #1’s and #2’s. Not the good kind. As for Smoak, he got in the fudge depot and became as stale as Pujols in like half the amount of time as the future Hall of Famer. Guess that’s why Smoak isn’t a future Hall of Famer! 2019 Projections: 63/25/75/.238 in 514 ABs

34. Ryan O’Hearn – I was trying to think how much different O’Hearn would be from Hosmer, and, let’s be honest, I didn’t want to try too hard. 2019 Projections: 61/20/75/.248/1 in 551 ABs

35. Carlos Santana – When he was traded, I said, “Traded to the Mariners. He was a part of the Jean Segura trade, but, since that happened late on a Sunday night, all the players weren’t yet confirmed, so the other parts of that deal were in my Robinson Cano fantasy. Here’s a few lines from The Rime of the Ancient Mariners, ‘There once was a man from Nantucket, Carlos Santana and Jay Bruce are so bad they can suck it. Their 2nd baseman is Dee Gordon, since they won’t ever win. If this year was a bunt, John Smoltz would f**k it.'” And that’s me quoting me! Then I updated Santana’s projections after he moved to Cleveland. 2019 Projections: 74/24/84/.232/2 in 563 ABs

36. Ryan Zimmerman – Zimmerman being in a crap tier that I’m avoiding goes together like pees and poops. But, I will say this, someone from this tier will likely bounce back and have a huge year, and if I had to guess on one of them, I’d go Zimmerman. At least he’s done something decent somewhat recently. 2019 Projections: 60/22/72/.271/2 in 419 ABs

37. Josh Bell – If there’s a tollbooth that takes your home runs and turns them into ground balls, then that’s the Bell’s toll. and 2019 Projections: 68/17/75/.268/2 in 522 ABs

38. Wilmer Flores – I love that when you type Wilmer Flores into Google the first autofill is “Wilmer Flores crying.” God bless Wilmer Flores! You heard of smoky eyes? Well, Wilmer Flores has soaky eyes. He’ll head to Arizona to play a bit of 2nd base, some 1st base and fill the outfield hot tub with tears. 2019 Projections: 56/17/62/.271/1 in 463 ABs

39. Ronald Guzman – Fun fact! He is the letter O at the end of his first name away from being a great soccer player. He’s also sixty-five percent away from being a great baseball player. 2019 Projections: 52/21/61/.240/2 in 488 ABs

40. Justin Bour – Here’s what I said this offseason, “Signed with the Angels. This pushes Thaiss down. Hey now! I was just starting to look at my rankings that will be released in January and Bour was one of those guys who could’ve went to useless on a team with a 1st baseman, like he was in Philly last year, or sneaky valuable, like he was on the Marlins…Okay, not last year on the Marlins though, it was two years ago when he was valuable. I could see him running into a 27+ homer, .270 season or a 15-homer, .220 season. Of course, varying shades in between. Hey, call him Justin G Biv!” And that’s me quoting me! 2019 Projections: 58/23/66/.242/1 in 461 ABs

41. Brandon Belt – Every year the projections systems project Belt for 20 homers. He’s turning 31 in April and still has yet to hit 20 homers. 2019 Projections: 72/17/78/.261/4 in 476 ABs

42. Marwin Gonzalez – This is a new tier. This tier goes from here until Sano. I call this tier, “Old AF.” And AF stands for awful. As for Marwin, is he still a free agent? Baseball is so broke. Sign already! I ranked Marwin, because I believe he will sign soon, but I didn’t include free agents Logan Morrison, Matt Davidson and Derek Dietrich yet, because they have Nippon Baseball League written all over them. UPDATE: Signed with the Twins. Here’s the Twins offseason, “Yup, we’ll take him, okay, him, okay, how about him, he’s cheap? What the hell? Okay, we’ll take him too. Really, no one wants to sign that guy either? Fine!” I knew I should’ve put down a bet on the Twins to win the World Series when I was in Vegas. They have more depth than Neil deGrasse Tyson in an aquarium. They have so much depth I’m not even sure Marwin has a starting job. Likely this takes ABs from Kepler and Cron, and an insurance policy for Sano in case he didn’t lose that weight and has been carrying around a fun house mirror. 2019 Projections: 44/13/59/.251/2 in 400 ABs

44. Peter O’Brien – He’s in the “Creaky knee” tier because O’Brien is the world’s oldest rookie. He’s like if someone were to Weekend at Bernie’s Larry King into a baseball game, and moved his arms to swing a bat. 2019 Projections: 49/18/57/.224 in 454 ABs

46. Jay Bruce – Here’s what I said this offseason on Bruce, “Going the other way in the Mets/M’s trade. When the big piece your team gets in return is Jay Bruce, you have to seriously consider whether or not you’re reupping your season tickets. Trust the process goes only so far when you’re saying things like, ‘We like Jay Bruce’s flexibility to play outfield and 1st base.'” And that’s me quoting me! 2019 Projections: 51/24/58/.233/2 in 542 ABs

47. Miguel Sano – Go see what I said on Belt. That’s Sano too, but with 30 homers, even though he’s never hit that many. I figured I’d go about this blurb while referencing Belt since Sano relies so heavily on a belt in his everyday life. *turns to mirror on my left wall* You’re so mean. *Turns to mirror on my right wall* But I still love you. UPDATE: Out until May with a debridement procedure on his Achilles. Think of debridement as a divorce of a mucousy wound. “I’m sorry, I’ve fallen in love with another pus pocket.” “You never loved me, admit it!” 2019 Projections: 41/22/51/.226 in 387 ABs

48. Jose Martinez – This is a new tier. This tier goes from here until Davis. I call this tier, “A frayed cord.” Imagine you’re parachuting and you pull on the cord, but it rips from the parachute and you’re now holding a frayed cord as you plummet to your death. If you draft a guy from this tier, you might be trying to fashion a parachute out of cord that is frayed as you plummet to impact. As for Martinez, without having Goldy, the Cardinals did not want to play Jo-Ma. With Goldy, well, can they trade Martinez to an AL team for a middle reliever? Please? 2019 Projections: 48/13/51/.313/2 in 289 ABs

49. Tyler Austin – Here’s my Tyler Austin sleeper, I wrote it while also debating Jake Cave. Unfortunately for both of them, the Twins signed, like, six free agents since my sleeper post, so it got all Null Carter’d and I was not given a break. 2019 Projections: 34/15/41/.248/1 in 267 ABs

50. J.D. Davis – Another guy like Alonso where you might be drafting a guy that you have to drop in shallower leagues in April when he doesn’t make the club or get at-bats. Here’s what I said about him this offseason, “(Davis was) traded to the Mets. Brody Van Jenner is like, ‘You mean I can make any moves I want and the Mets fans will like them? Then let’s do every move offered!’ This move is decent for the Mets, real world-wise, but fantasy-wise it concerns me. This is hinting at what I think is already an issue, the Mets don’t seem like they want to play Jeff McNeil full-time or Peter Alonso in April/May. I hope I’m wrong, but you don’t get Davis if you don’t plan on playing him against lefties, at least. Maybe we’ll get lucky and Todd Frazier will just retire in March. Last year in Triple-A in 85 games, Davis hit 17 homers and .342, which is why we’re even talking about him, and why I might be saying Just Dong, the Sequel, by early April. I like him, but he needs at-bats.” And that’s me quoting me! Similarly to Peter Alonso, I could be moving Davis way up in the rankings if he wins a job in March or dropping him further. 2019 Projections: 26/11/30/.238/1 in 233 ABs

55. Adam Duvall – I see Duvall being listed as a starter, to which I say, “That,” pointing at the Braves’ depth chart, “Is lying to me.” 2019 Projections: 38/14/47/.231/2 in 313 ABs

56. Ryon Healy – A peek into my mechanics. I look at about 20 different stats, then I boil it down to some key ones, and I don’t mention them unless they’re very good or bad. I don’t even check where a guy is ranked for a stat unless I see how great or awful he is. For Healy, I saw his Hard Contact and I was like, “Woof, that’s bad,” then I looked at where it ranked overall and I was like, “Confirmed!” I also flap my elbow while I type like Joe Morgan. 2019 Projections: 41/16/43/.244 in 304 ABs

57. Matt Adams – Here’s what I said this offseason, “Signed with the Nationals. When I think of Adams’ role on a team, I think of him in colonial garb, ringing a bell, saying, “Bat for hire…bat for hire.” It’s too bad for Adams’s sake, he never signs with an AL team. I wonder if he know about the DH.” And that’s me quoting me! By the by, I will say this for this tier, a bunch of platoons’ weak sides are the strong side of said platoons, which is to say they won’t play much, but they’re better when they actually do. 2019 Projections: 38/17/44/.261 in 327 ABs

58. Enrique Hernandez – According to Wikipedia, “His nickname is Kike, sometimes spelled Kiké during English-language television to prevent it from being confused with a derogatory slur.” So, in English, they add an accent, just in case anyone thought maybe Max Stassi was on the on-deck circle goose-stepping. 2019 Projections: 41/15/40/.262/4 in 387 ABs

59. Steve Pearce – Didja you hear that someone named their kid, ABCDE? It’s pronounced Ab-siddy. It should be pronounced Abstinence. With that in mind, if I were Steve Pearce, I’d totally change my name to World Series MVP Pearce. 2019 Projections: 30/12/38/.277 in 345 ABs

60. Mark Canha – He doesn’t look like he will ever get over the hump of being in the LLAMAS. 2019 Projections: 41/14/48/.255/2 in 306 ABs

61. Austin Slater – This is a new tier. This tier goes from here until the end of the list. I call this tier, “Whom is a good boy?” That’s me talking to a dog I respect intellectually. It’s also how I feel about this tier. Someone here might be a good boy. They’re likely just dogs. As for Slater, drafting him is a gambit in deep leagues that you might get 500 ABs and he runs into 25 homers without hitting .215. If that happened, it would be cool for Slater. Or I guess, A.C. Slater. 2019 Projections: 25/8/34/.241/5 in 215 ABs

62. Yandy Diaz – Here’s what I said this offseason, “(Yandy) went to the Rays in the Edwin/Bauers trade. Maybe it’s because Yandy is built like a brickhouse, but I’m kinda hyped on him. He’s the guy on the right in the pic below, not that the other guy is a slouch. I mean, neither look like Grey Albright at the Gun Show. Okay, this feels a little like an article submission to Men’s Health & Fitness. The title of that article, You Can’t Fitness Guy In Your Compact Car. The problem is if Edwin is indeed in Tampa, then I’m not sure how many at-bats Yandy gets.” And that’s me quoting me! Since then, things have become worse for Diaz after the signing of Avisail, and have adjusted Yandy’s projections. 2019 Projections: 21/7/28/.282/1 in 224 ABs

63. Hunter Dozier – I look at Dozier’s projections and what he’s done in the minors, and I wonder, “Is it better for his self-esteem if he plays or doesn’t play?” 2019 Projections: 51/14/57/.217/4 in 534 ABs

64. Ryan McMahon – I went back and looked at old news for McMahon. The last bit of news on him was, “He’s been one the Rockies’ best hitters since he was recalled from the minors, and has started two of the last nine games.” Is there any better encapsulation of how the Rockies treat their youngsters? That line says everything! He was in the minors, for no reason, and, even when he’s hitting, he doesn’t play. 2019 Projections: 29/12/38/.249/1 in 289 ABs

65. Nick Delmonico – If he sees more than 150 ABs vs. a lefty, he won’t hit .235 overall. A Delmonico stake, so to speak. 2019 Projections: 39/15/45/.234/2 in 341 ABs

66. Eric Thames – Thames is a river, and in a river you find fish, and fish have fins and French for the end is Fin and this is the ‘almost Fin.’ Frank Voila, snitches! 2019 Projections: 31/18/44/.235/4 in 276 ABs

67. Dominic Smith – Tell me he doesn’t feel like a guy who will be DFA’d at some point by the Mets, then hit 30+ homers for another team. I guess he’s like C.J. Cron when he was still fighting for playing time. I will call him, Under Ceej. 2019 Projections: 15/6/28/.245/2 in 158 ABs

68. Chris Davis – There’s a rumor that they’re going to bring back the Wide World of Sports TV show. For the agony portion of the intro, it will show anyone who drafts Chris Davis for their fantasy team while attempting a skiing long jump. 2019 Projections: 41/19/46/.191/2 in 423 ABs

Rankings are back!!! Yes! Quick question Grey; 12 team keeper league, roto 6×6 (OPS & QS are the extra categories) and we can keep 3 guys we picked last year in the round that we drafted them in. We are doing a draft order draft (where we pick where our draft position will be) now and I’ll probably be picking in the 8-10 range. My options are:

Rankings are back!!! Yes! Quick question Grey; 12 team keeper league, roto 6×6 (OPS & QS are the extra categories) and we can keep3 guys we picked last year in the round we drafted them in. We are doing a draft order position draft now and I’ll probably be picking in the 8-10 range. My options are:

f. Ditto what you said about 1n Zim AND he was a college standout, just like Will Clark. Btw, if Will Clark was drafted by the Montreal Expos (and Will Clark was dumb enough to accept) he’d be called – wait for it – Will the Trill! That one was especially for (Frank) Grimey if he’s still out there! Grimey? You there?

g. Subdued Norm MacDonald quote of the day for January 17

1. Judge Lance Ito this week barred all potential jurors from reading Faye Resnick’s controversial new book “Nicole Brown Simpson: The Diary of a Life Interrupted.” The judge also barred them from reading Faye Resnick’s lesser known masterpiece “Judge Lance Ito is a Big Fruit”.

2. In other book news, Prince Charles released his autobiography in which he states that he never loved Princess Di and that his father pressured him to marry her. The book is entitled: “Of course O.J. did it. I mean c’mon”.

3. And the Pope (John Paul II) came out with a book this week, which contains a series of essays examining faith and morality in today’s secular world and the changing role of the Catholic church as it approaches the 21st century. The book is entitled: “God himself told me that O.J. is guilty”.

@Ante Galic: Haha, thanks! A. Oh no! You have to move! B. Prolly a bit late, but I will go over top 100/500 eventually C. Same answer as B D. Same as B and C E. I’ll go over the big picture with the master list F. Haha G. 1. Woof 2. Ha 3. Lots of OJ quotes!

Watched it from start to finish and liked it way better than I am not your Negro but for different reasons. Thought OJ was tough to watch ’cause I love Americana but the film kind of portrayed the O.J. story as a failure of American society whilst O.J. was pretty much an isolated case. To be discussed if you like.

a. It is very possible that I don’t know anything, especially about things that happen stateside ’cause I’ve only been over 4 times – 2 weeks in April 1986 (Cincinnati, Atlanta, Orlando/Tampa, Chattanooga, Richmond, DC, Latrobe), a weekend in suburban Cleveland (Independence Day, 1993) and 2 times in suburban Atlanta (Mableton, 20 minutes from the airport). By the by, we stayed in Frankfort, Kentucky (just over the river) with family of Frank Tanana. They had framed pictures of Frank Tanana all over the house, the living room being a shrine to the guy.

b. Was just thinking that O.J. is an isolated case. People go nuts for the juice and yeah he ran for over 2000 yards that year (1972?) so he’s an icon. If it were some no name guy (black or white) who killed his wife (black or white) and lover there wouldn’t be much to discuss. That would be the shortest movie ever made.

c. Watched season 2 of making a murder. Yeah about Woke…The morale of the story is

A. HAHA, WUT… How is it you’ve only been here a handful of times and you stayed at Frank Tanana’s house? What’s the chances? B. Right, but he was OJ, so it was a shock to everyone… He didn’t only run for those yards… Think his role in The Naked Gun shows what people thought of him… He was a lovable goof as well as handsome… He was like the guy all guys want to be friends with and all girls want to eff… C. Yeah, wasn’t as good as 1st season, lots of slow shots of slow people moving slow

a. Yeah, when I saw all the familial relations to the mother it really hit me – anyone of his brothers or uncles could have just as easily done it and be a. a match for the blood and b. the one who enabled the police to frame him. It was terrible. Initially, I was shaking the fist in the sky at you for not telling me not to watch it but then I remembered what you said that you need to be WOKE which was the right message after all. I felt like someone had kicked me in the nuts.

b. Yeah, the juice and all the movies and I still see him running and running for the Bills.

c. Frankfort is over the river from Cincinnati. I got to see Three Rivers stadium from afar. In that ’86 road trip, we spent 2 nights in every town. We would be sponsored by a family from the local church, sing two concerts, one concert per night. My observations.

1. Downtown Cincinnati was the cleanest downtown in the US in 1986.

2. For the Atlanta trip, we stayed somewhere on the road to Augusta. I got to meet Chris Chambliss! Was the highlight for sure.

3. In Orlando, we went on the Space Mountain ride at Disney World. They told us about the guy who got up on the virgin ride and came out with his head chopped off so don’t do it.

4. In Chattanooga we stayed with the former town commissioner. He gave us the key to Chattanooga so I go any time, even arrive after midnight!

5. In Richmond we went to the Choco slip, just a stone’s throw from the industrial park where pimps and pushers go. Oh, and we also didn’t go to that industrial park because Richmond was the murder capital (per capita) of the year for 1986. Richmond is for lovers but also lovers who kill!

6. In Latrobe we slept in a trailer in a trailer park.

The whole trip was by bus. We entered the US via Windsor-Detroit. Each trip was 10 hours. We left the US via Buffalo and back home to Toronto. It was a good trip.

A. Totally, it happened in relation to that scrapyard, but not necessarily by the two that are incarcerated… B. He was just lovable, until he killed his ex-wife, of course… C. Other than Orlando, I’ve never been to any of those cities… I might have to go to Cincy at some point tho bc of Cougs’ friends in Ohio… I did the Windsor-Detroit thing once, what a terrible, terrible place…

I hope everything is cool in California.
In my country we are waiting on how this whole Brexit-saga plays out. I guess it will cost us extra money (duh). I have tickets for the Red Sox – Yankees game in Londen, better bring my passport with me.;-)

@Bas: My first instinct was to keep Buehrle over Ozuna. But the draft picks are the wild card. I doubt I would keep Andujar or Clevinger over any of your other keepers. But the bump in draft slot is pretty enticing. I still think I’d go with Buehrle.

If you’d be paying more after a Brexit, who’s paying it now? Someone always pays. Just saying.

@Grey: For sure. I should have clarified – he needs to talk to Altuve to learn how to use his big hulking body to mash dongs. It should be illegal to be an MLB player that looks like that but gets out-homered by Altuve.

While I see those Olson numbers as being indicative of his best case, I see Voit having a good chance of pushing those into top 10 numbers. I know he won’t his the 3,239,280 HR’s I have him projected for and his ISO won’t be (insert eggplant emoji), but in that lineup and those NL East parks my dude should muscle up and crush that 25 ranking.

@Just a Guy: He was not on the immediate depth chart, nor did it appear to me he was going to be up soon enough to make a difference, but you’re right, he does have promise if he gets called up and gets PT with some injuries…

Public Service Announcement: Hoskins only played 17 games at 1B last year and, if my math is right, won’t initially qualify at 1st in 20 game requirement leagues.

Last year we all tried to stage an intervention with you on Bellinger but you just kept screaming “you don’t know me” and eating your bag of Fritos and whatnot. I said I’m going to love him in 3019 though, and so it is. Good pice right now, multi position eligible, gonna swipe some bags and with an adjustment or two could be top 20.

I just looked and they weren’t that bad. Only thing that sticks out is his GB rate went up and FB went down. He chased more pitches out of the zone but also made better contact out of the zone so that’s a wash. When you look at his splits though you see he sucked at home this year hitting close to 50 points lower and almost 50 points lower against lefties all around

@BJFOHOHL: Read a random article earlier in the winter that said, Jackie Bradley Jr. is working with Craig Wallenbrock (Van Scoyoc’s business partner and Martinez’s current hitting coach) this winter after forging an over the phone mentorship with him after the 2018 All Star Break. Credited his ongoing second half adjustments to his post season success.

Maybe not a Daniel Murphy break out, but at his current ADP, not a bad flyer…

Small nugget for the Razzball winter faithful to do what they will with.

Watch out for Christian Walker on the D-Backs. Finally not blocked by C.Davis, Votto, Freeman, or Goldy. The kid can hit and he just needed playing time. Was the best hitter in college on a team with Bradley Jr., Merrifield, and Greiner.

Had a couple questions related to Bellinger projections
1. Belly vs. Rhys – You have Belly at 10 points higher in AVG, but 20 R lower and 20 RBI lower. I get that you see 5 less HR, but those seem like big gaps in R/RBI, especially R given Belly’s speed.

2. Are there concerns on Belly’s floor that put him beneath Rizz and Rhys (they should form a band!) when he is more likely than either of them to contribute in 5 cats and 35/20 doesn’t seem that far fetched?

Love that you’re back in on Belly woo! You do have me confused on one thing though . How is Jerry tomato #9 when he projects for 86/18/69/.271/5? With that line it seems like he should be like 25. Wouldn’t you rather have Jesus who projects for 85/33/94/.268

A tad surprised not to see Ji-Man Choi anywhere on this list, though obviously I’m not exactly expecting 30 home runs from him or anything. @Anodyne: I mean, he’s go to be better than Tucker Barnhart, right?

Will Travis Shaw have 1B eligibility in Yahoo? If so, where would he slot in?

So let’s say someone isn’t drafting Freeman/Goldy because they’re going after the Trea/Acuna’s of the world. And say they miss on Rhys/Rizzo/Belly because they have been sipping Grey’s Mondesi juice and everyone’s new amour, Vladdy! Then shizz happens and your top 12 are off the board. So they draft Matt Olson. Now to hedge those bets we’re thinking PLATOON and play the splits. I did that a few years ago with Adam Lind (granted in the UTIL slot) but it played out solid. I, er, they would be looking for some upside with right heavy splits in a late round (pick 200+ish) in a standard 12 teamer.

@bigbear: He’s around Aguilar overall… I think he does have Yahoo eligibility but I said 5 games started, which he didn’t have… Olson and Adams, Marwin, Zimmerman or someone deep in a deep league…As I was writing that I see you said 12 team… Hmm, maybe White? Voit?

I agree, Votto is finished unfortunatley. I do think Mancini has some upside if he can lower his ground ball rate and lift some goddamn baseballs. Over 50% GB rate is sickening. If he can balance out the highs and lows, i’d take a .275-.280 with 27 bombs.

As far as Ryon Healy is concerned I think it all comes down to playing time, if the Mariners move Encarnacion before the season and let Healy hit out of the 5th or 6th spot in the order I believe he easily eclipses your projections. I know it’s a big if. This past season he dealt with injury and was victimized by a low BABIP. his exo velocity and HR. distance is above league average, albeit slightly, but still above. His splits are good, meaning he hits lefties and righties about equally, so no reason to platoon. He just turned 27, he hit well at all levels in the minors, he just needs a chance at full-time ab’s. Not saying we’ve got a Hoskins in the making but certainly someone more valuable than say Hosmer or Braun.

I think you may be too optimistic on Miggy, Braun, Zimmerman, et al fragile aging former studs. They’re not in my plans at all. I don’t mind you underselling Olson either but unfortunately several of my fellow drafters recently are even higher on him. I know you write these for the espn/yahoo crowd too so I’ll leave out comments on Merrifield, Posey, Swihart, et al as 1B except “not in a real league”…

Going with Mad Max at 1st and praying they don’t sign anyone to take away his ABs! Anyway, in a standard scoring 10 team keeper, would you trade CSeager and Hicks or Renfroe to get back Buehler and Dahl? Already have Trea and Scherzer, Bauer, CMart as keepers, but want to upgrade CMart and maybe use him in a trade. Thanks.

@Grey: follow up please. If he asked for Kyle Tucker to go with Seager, still pull the trigger? I’m competing now, but don’t want to go crazy if the future values are far out of my favor. Thanks again.

Hey Grey. Keeper league 14 teams where we keep our best 7 as long as we want. My 8th keeper is either Springer or Verlander. Verlander doesn’t have much trade value being so old but I’m fine keeping him for another yr. With that said would you trade Springer and Arenado for Mookie? Or hold them both and drop Verlander? I know your OF rankings haven’t come out yet but do you view Springer a top 30-40 player still?

Jake Bauers. With his current NFBC ADP of #256ish and the ESPN goof having him at #183 right now… I see that Rudy values him more. I could see myself having more than a few shares of him for my CI slots this year.

Never done a Roto Saves+Holds league and will be doing one this year. I’m looking at Rudy’s rankings for that type of league now. But just punt and cruise the wire right? Seems to me like there is even less of a reason to draft an RP.

@Grey: So key. Can’t wait for that draft. Going to punt and just use Rudy’s Relieveonator tool for Holds. That worked really well for me last year in a Holds league, but I’m looking forward to being able to just ignore the Saves stat unless it falls in my lap or something.

Murphy probably stands out as best value right now from this tier, although I wonder if the NFBC is still pre-Coors move. I think Braun could be useful in daily transaction leagues with extra DL slots. He’s still productive when he plays and costs nothing right now.

@Babe Ruth was pointing at me!: I filtered NFBC ADP for the 20 drafts that occurred since December 27th and Murphy’s ADP is 86ish. So yea that one your looking at isn’t showing how much he’s gonna rise.

Keeper help! I know your rankings may help answer this, but it’s not always that cut and dry. Our keeper rules are that we can keep 4 hitters, but only one from each IF position or 2 OF. Who makes the cut? I know Seager and Muncy aren’t likely, but included them anyway.
Position eligibility in our league is in parentheses:

@Grey: Interesting, no Rizzo, huh? I just listened to the top 20 pod, so wasn’t sure what to make of that. Guess I’ll have to see how your full ranking flush out. Are you thinking Bryant will be ahead of Rizzo, or is this more because of position and possible upside?

Hosmer had a 60.4% groundball % last year according to fangraphs. I will never own him again. He’s burned me so many times. How did he get such a huge contract? Wil Myers is now stuck in the OF b/c of it. The only time myers has ever stayed healthy was when he played 1b. I think your ranking is generous. I’d certainly take votto and few others over him. Actually just about any 1b with pop who can hit .250 like hosmer did last year is probably a better choice.

in Dynasty , i’ve put a bet on Pete Alonso,, looks like he’s not in your heart (at least for now)

would you rather go : Voit ? ? looks like the better combo in NYY
Desmond, R.Braun, Gurriel are your best ranked players, but the oldest as well!!

still avb : so many others to consider :
Young Bauers( better bet than Alonso for now?)and the future
“youknowwhatyouget” Mancini, …?
or Power Sano ? (dunno if i still love him, …) would have been my last season’s choice by far
Good Rhum Niko could also be the overALL position-solution (i have Adames already),

Grey-4×4 roto HR, RBI, AVG, SB. 13 team AL only Palka owner has him at $5 this year and next year. He has an interest in my Austin Hayes and Ryan Mountcastle both in my minors and will have $2 salaries for thee years when they arrive. I am only like warm on Hays and Mountcastle and think I would deal either one for Palka. He also is trying to move a $5 Yander Alonso. Would you do either of my prospects for Palka or Yonder or both my guys for both his guys? What floats your boat? Thank you

Ever have one of those prescient thoughts that just keeps cropping back up? Here’s mine: Jorge Polanco is a huge sleeper. Remember the fall before the NARCO Squad sat him down. He was changing his swing ala Eduardo Escobar and having real results: big upswing in power over small sample size. Then last year he was out for the first half, came back and slowly got back in the swing of things, but really didn’t make a big splash. I just have a sneaking suspicion that with a full ST, the guy is going to finish that swing transition and startle people with surprising power, great plate discipline OBP/BA and rack up stats due to leading off for a rather potent BO. On top of all that, he can run a little bit. Without saber metric chops, I’m going to blindy predict: 25 HR; 17 steals, .275 BA and 100 runs. Crazy or prescient?