All is not lost for new leader

These are difficult times for Nick Clegg, the third Liberal Democrat leader in two years, not counting Vince Cable, the leader they never had, but should have done. Limp in the polls and divided over Europe, he faces his first party spring conference in the hot seat this weekend in Liverpool.

But all is not lost. At Westminster yesterday the Lib Dem leadership finally forced a complicated procedural vote on their demand for a straight "in or out" referendum on British membership of the EU, the issue on which they staged a mini walkout last week.

It was defeated as resoundingly as it was when last debated in December, by 471 votes to 68: a figleaf to cover their internal split over Europe, "drowning not waving", as William Hague suggested. The good news was that the manouevre was too complex to warrant serious airtime on the TV evening news.

Clegg can change all that tonight if he decides to sack any of his 63 MPs still determined to defy instructions via a three-line whip to abstain on the narrower Tory version of a referendum, one on the Lisbon treaty now passing through the Commons.

All three main parties are split, so David Cameron's amendment will also be defeated. Polls routinely suggest voters - Lib Dems included - want such a ballot, though actual ballots are poorly supported because Europe is unloved but a low priority for most people. Sensible Lib Dem MPs seem agreed that Clegg is smart enough to turn a blind eye to any defiance by frontbench MPs such as David Heath, Alistair Carmichael or Nick Harvey (who last night fell back into line). Sacking anyone would guarantee a negative spot on the TV bulletins. "Split" is a word everyone understands.

It all seems a muddle, albeit not of the new leader's making. Charles Kennedy, leader until 2006, was bounced into promising a referendum on the aborted EU constitution. So was Tony Blair. And it was Sir Menzies Campbell who decided the Lisbon treaty was not a constitution and that his party would therefore abstain on the Lisbon vote when it came. It does tonight.

Clegg is under no threat. Some colleagues disliked last week's walkout, but they like his style, his brains and good humour. They also point out that an "in or out" referendum may be mocked at Westminster, but plays well on the doorstep.

"Voters who are obsessed with Europe like it because most of them are keen to vote No even though they'd probably lose. The Tories are using all sorts of dog-whistle tactics to win back these voters [from Ukip] but everyone knows the Tory leadership wants to stay in Europe," says one.

Clegg's real problem is the familiar two-party squeeze. His party prospered when it had a distinctive tax policy, the extra 1p on standard rate to improve education, which Cable persuaded Kennedy to drop. It also had Iraq, equally brave in its way and a potent unique selling point during the Blair years.

Both have lost their potency. The Lib Dems have a creditable civil liberties record and are also a useful quarry for good green ideas which rival parties pinch. They still need a new USP which can protect those 63 seats. Tory strategists are very keen to oust them south and west of the Thames.

Some hanker for a hung parliament in 2009-10, but hard-nosed Lib Dems and Tories rule out a coalition with either bigger rival. How about a return to Kennedy's "anti-politics populism", some Lib Dems ask.