The February employment report gave hints of spring with a stronger than expected 175k reading on total nonfarm payrolls after an upward revised 129k gain in January. There was not an obvious impact from weather on jobs, although it may have led to weakness in the retail and trade and transportation sectors. Disruptive weather appears to have depressed the average workweek. Average hourly earnings of all private sector workers posted a solid 0.4% m/m gain. The unemployment rate increased to 6.716% from 6.584% reflecting a weak reading in the household survey. Despite the uptick in the unemployment rate we think the Fed will remove reference to the 6.5% threshold in the March statement as it is not a sufficient or particularly informative measure of labor market slack and therefore not the best guidepost for monetary policy. –Julia Coronado, chief economist for North America, BNP Paribas

The rebound in U.S. payroll employment in February, to 175,000 from 129,000 in January, pretty much guarantees that the Fed will taper its asset purchases further at the mid-March meeting, especially as payrolls would have been stronger if it wasn’t for the unusually severe weather. After all, we know from the alternative household survey that 601,000 people could not get to work due to the bad weather, which is double the norm for February. And the number of weekly hours worked dropped to 34.2, from 34.3. Finally, the weather surely explains why retail payrolls fell by 4,000, which followed a 23,000 decline the month before. –Paul Dales, senior U.S. economist, Capital Economics

This is hardly a ringing endorsement of the idea that most or all the weakness of recent payrolls is weather-related, but it is a step in the right direction; with revisions the net gain is 200K. The household survey–not comparable directly to the payroll numbers–shows 601K people unable to work due to weather; the February average is 317K. Overall, then, good enough to keep the Fed tapering. –Ian Shepherdson, chief economist, Pantheon Macroeconomics

The pickup in job creation in February lends some credence to the prevailing view that adverse weather conditions were a significant influence behind the soft results in recent months. Certainly, further gains will be needed to solidify the evidence, but today’s report should provide some relief for those concerned that a more sustained slowdown might be underway. –Jim Baird, chief investment officer, Plante Moran Financial Advisors

The tone of this report was quite encouraging, and it reflects some modest improvement in labor market conditions despite the adverse weather condition. And notwithstanding the sharp drop in the trend pace of jobs growth in recent months (relative to the brisk 200K+ pace seen in November), the main takeaway from this report is simply that the underlying momentum in the U.S. economy remains positive. In fact, we continue to expect a meaningful rebound in economic activity to begin taking sharp in the months ahead, with jobs growth rising back to the 200+ range. –Millan Mulraine, deputy head of U.S. research and strategy, TD Securities

In short, better than expected payrolls, even with some weather effects. Hourly earnings were also stronger than expected. The unemployment rate rose, although it had dropped sharply in the previous few months. The 3-month average for payrolls is just 129K, but that figure is undoubtedly depressed by weather effects. The data are consistent with continued Fed tapering at the March meeting. We expect Fed officials will also change the forward guidance, dropping the 6.5% threshold figure and replacing it with more qualitative guidance. –Jim O’Sullivan, chief U.S. economist, High Frequency Economics

On the positive side, this was the seventh consecutive monthly expansion for manufacturing employment, with the sector rebounding starting in August after sluggishness in the spring and early summer of 2013. Yet, hiring has remained soft over the past three months, with weather likely lowering overall activity in the sector. The manufacturing sector came out of 2013 with strong momentum in terms of output and demand, and most manufacturers remain cautiously optimistic in their outlook for 2014. With that in mind, I continue to feel that manufacturing employment should improve in the coming months. At the same time, the fact that we have seen softness recently shows just how fragile the economic rebound has been. –Chad Moutray, chief economist, National Association of Manufacturers

We believe the FOMC will read this report as indicating that labor market conditions are gradually improving after being suppressed, in part, by adverse weather conditions across much of the US. In our view, the February employment report signals that the US has returned to moderate job growth and that better economic data lie ahead once weather effects subside. We expect the Fed to taper its monthly purchase pace by another $10bn at its March meeting. Our baseline expectation is that the committee will reduce the monthly pace of purchases by $10bn per month at each upcoming FOMC meeting and conclude tapering in October with a final $15bn reduction. –Michael Gapen, economist, Barclays Capital

Evidence of a steady underlying employment growth trend reinforces the likelihood that unemployment will soon reach the Fed’s 6.5% threshold for discussing rate increases. I think the FOMC would prefer to change the guidance before unemployment falls below 6.5%, and that the Committee could do so as soon as its March 19 meeting. The re-formulation would likely include more qualitative guidance as to the broader set of labor market and economic conditions that would trigger rate hike discussions, and could also include a lower bound inflation threshold. –Alan Levenson, chief economist, T. Rowe Price Associates

Despite some fairly substantial volatility, job creation has averaged 180k over the past 12 months slightly lower than the past 18 months average of 191k. Private sector employment increased for the 49th straight month, totaling 8.681 million or 177k per month. The government sector surprised to the upside creating 13k jobs, modestly higher than the last three month average of -14k. It appears that the trend job creation rate is still about 175k – 185k per month, consistent with an economy growing at around 2%. –Maninder Sibia, economist, Contingent Macro Advisors

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