Why Not Trade Burnett Now?

MIKE BERARDINO COMMENTARY

A.J. Burnett has been in the Marlins' clubhouse a few times in recent weeks, even though his return from reconstructive elbow surgery is still at least nine months away.

Watching Burnett interact with teammates, wear his uniform and sit in the dugout gave me two distinct thoughts.

One was what might have been. Where would this already compelling Marlins season be had Burnett not blown out his elbow back in April?

Sad to contemplate, huh?

Here's the other thought, one rooted in cold, hard reality: Why not trade him?

I'm not talking about December, when the non-tender date and his projected $2.5 million salary for next season could force the Marlins to cut him loose or deal him to a team better able to afford the long rehab wait.

I'm talking about now. Before Thursday's 4 p.m. non-waiver trading deadline. When his vast potential and the probability he'll come back next May throwing harder than ever could bring a much-needed piece for the stretch drive.

All right, I know injured players are almost never traded, especially those coming off Tommy John surgery. For one thing, the commissioner's office would have to approve any such deal.

But there's a first time for everything, and how many injured players can tantalize like the Marlins' fallen ace? One major league source estimates Burnett, even three months into his rehab, could still bring "30 to 40 cents on the dollar" on the trade market.

That means instead of the boatload of young, cheap players he might bring when healthy, he still could net the Marlins, say, another bullpen arm or two from a rebuilding team. Or perhaps he alone could bring a veteran bat for left field such as J.D. Drew, Rondell White or Jeff Conine.

The fact Burnett, 26, is still due about $865,000 this season only helps balance the financial transaction, a huge consideration in today's payroll-driven baseball economy.

This scenario works, mind you, only if the Marlins already know they won't be able to take Burnett into next season. Under normal circumstances, they might be able to non-tender him and re-sign him to a low-base deal filled with performance incentives.

Alas, the firing of pitching coach Brad Arnsberg and manager Jeff Torborg, both Burnett favorites, put a strain on relations between the Marlins and the Burnett camp. So did Burnett's allegations that management knew something was amiss with his elbow months before he broke down in August 2002.

Based on conversations with several rival club officials, most baseball people believe Burnett has thrown his last pitch in a Marlins uniform. If that's the case, the Marlins might as well try to turn him into something of value while they still can.

Deal him to the Colorado Rockies for deposed closer Jose Jimenez and cash. Or how about to the Montreal Expos for lefty specialist Joey Eischen and a prospect? Or the Cincinnati Reds, along with exiled reliever Vladimir Nunez, for closer Scott Williamson?

The fading Anaheim Angels might be willing to part with wacky-but-effective Ben Weber under the right circumstances. Maybe the chance to get a once and future No. 1 starter like Burnett would be that circumstance.

"We're forced to be creative in this industry," said one longtime baseball man. "I totally agree with your idea. I think it makes sense, particularly when you look at the track record of Tommy John guys. They all come back at or near where they were."

Putting Burnett in a deal instead of two or three more premium prospects also would keep the Marlins from further gutting a once-overflowing farm system. In the past year, they have traded off a half-dozen prospects that either currently or previously ranked in their top 10.

Not everyone polled was ready to grant me Next Branch Rickey status. Some thought the Marlins would have a hard time getting any club to bite on Burnett during the season.

"Any GM that does that immediately goes on the chopping block if that guy [Burnett] doesn't pan out," said one NL club official.

Said one American League executive: "They say the recovery percentage from Tommy John surgery is very high, almost like 90 percent. But what if [Burnett] is that guy on the low percentage? That's why you can't give up a lot for an injured player."

Undeterred, I kept asking, and a major league scout from a small-market team liked the idea almost as much I did.

"He's the perfect piece," the scout said. "We'd probably take him if we could. Sure, it would leave some people scratching their heads if the Marlins dealt him, but if you're going to go for it, you go for it now. You can't just keep rebuilding."