Top Prospects: Texas Rangers

General
Manager: Jon DanielsMinor
League Director: Tim PurpuraScouting
Director: Kip FaggAAA:
Round Rock Express (Pacific Coast League) 87-57AA:
Frisco Rough Riders (Texas League) 79-61Hi
A: Myrtle Beach Pelicans (Carolina League) 72-67Low
A: Hickory Crawdads (South Atlantic League) 79-58Rookie
Adv.: Spokane Indians (Northwest League) 35-41Rookie:
AZ Rangers (Arizona Summer League) 38-18Dominican:
DSL Rangers (Dominican Summer League) 41-30System
OverviewIt’s
hard to believe that a little more than two years ago the Rangers
were sitting in bankruptcy court with their 2009 first round pick,
LHP Matt Purke, headed off to college at nearby TCU because Major
League Baseball wouldn’t authorize the organization the money to go
over slot to sign him. The team had just had its first winning
season in three years, going 87-75, but with broken finances the
organization’s future was on uncertain ground.
Now
with aggressive new ownership under Hall of Famer Nolan Ryan’s
leadership and huge new television revenues guaranteeing the Rangers
financial future, Texas has been to the World Series the past two
seasons, losing in the seventh game to the underdog Cardinals last
year. The Major League talent is solid and deep both in the field
and on the mound and the Rangers minor league system ranks among the
elite in all of baseball.
In
fact, new Astros General Manager Jeff Luhnow, ironically an executive
with the Cardinals during last October’s World Series, recently
remarked that the Rangers were spending money “like drunken
soldiers” after attempting to sign a 17-year old Dominican
outfielder Jario Bares in a controversial $4.5 million deal that is
now being reviewed by the Commissioner’s Office. Luhnow later
apologized for his remarks, but they rang true, especially on the
international talent market.
Bares
would have been at least the fifth international player, and fourth
outfielder, to receive at least $3.45 million from the Rangers just
in the last 10 months. Fellow Dominicans Ramon Mazara and Ronald
Guzman signed for $5 million and $3.45 million bonuses last July,
while Cuban National Team centerfield Leonys Martin signed a $15.6
million major league contract in May.
Those
and all the rest of the Rangers signings paled in comparison to Texas
out-bidding the rest of Major League Baseball to sign 25-year old
Japanese superstar RHP Yu Darvish. Darvish should step right into
the Rangers rotation in place of LHP C.J. Wilson, who left to sign a
five year, $77 million contract with the Angels in the offseason.
The
Rangers will return virtually the same every day lineup for the 2012
season, with Martin having a chance to win the centerfield job and
shift All-Star Josh Hamilton permanently to a corner outfield
position. The pitching will have to be re-aligned a bit with the
addition of Darvish and the potential switch of closer Nefali Felix
to the starting rotation and Alexi Obango to the bullpen, but quality
and depth won’t be the issue, only roles.
The
Rangers will again have to move through the New York/Boston/Tampa Bay
gauntlet to reach the World Series for a third consecutive year, not
to mention defeat their free spending rivals the Angels in the
American League West. But all the pieces are in place to do just
that.2011
DraftWhile
the Rangers are renowned for their high flying ways internationally,
they stick much closer to the ground financially on the domestic
scouting front. They have significantly overpaid for slot only four
times in the past two years, all on right handed pitching prospects
(2010 compensation pick RHP Luke Jackson, 2010 fifth round pick RHP
Justin Grimm, 2010 14th round pick RHP Nick Tepesch and
2011 12th round selection RHP Connor Sadzeck).
In
addition, Texas was unable to sign their fifth, sixth and seventh
round picks in 2011, although all were high level high school talents
who were going to be challenging signs at any point in the draft
after the first round.
Just
as the Rangers have only been moderate spenders in the draft, they
have also gone against conventional wisdom for a number of their top
picks the past two years, including their first pick each year. In
2010 the Rangers tabbed the very athletic but relatively
inexperienced Georgia high school outfielder Jake Skole in the first
round. They followed up by selecting Canadian catcher Kellin Deglan,
another physically talented but inexperienced prospect, at the end of
the first round.
In
2011 Texas raised eyebrows by choosing 5-foot-11, 180-pound Georgia
high school left handed pitcher Kevin Matthews in the first round.
Matthews has two very solid pitches in his low 90s fastball and a
power curveball, but is projected as a reliever by many scouts.
The
rest of the signed 2011 draft list also showed a distinct lean to raw
tools and ceiling over present performance and skills.
First
round compensation pick (37th overall) OF Zach Cone played
three years of SEC baseball at Georgia but didn’t improve as much
as scouts had hoped for after he was a third round pick out of high
school, even regressing as a junior. He has top of charts
athleticism and defensive ability in centerfield and enough strength
and bat speed to become a Major League hitter if his approach and
skills improve.
Second
round pick LHP Will Lamb spent more time in Clemson’s outfield in
college than on the mound but the hard throwing 6-foot-6, 180-pound
southpaw was always considered to be a better pitching prospect once
he reached the professional level. He had an impressive debut after
signing quickly (3-1, 2.75, 62 K’s in 55 innings) and has the
physical talent to become a top 10 prospect next year if his command
improves.
Third
round pick RHP Kyle Castro was one of the more under recognized early
drafts, especially given the fact he’s from Southern California,
but his athletic resume is impressive. He led the state of
California in interceptions as a 6-foot-4, 185-pound safety and was
almost as highly regarded as a power hitting third base prospect.Top
10 Prospects
1.
RHP Yu Darvish –
Baseball-reference player profile
Darvish
falls into a different category than virtually any other pervious
Japanese prospect and not just because of his cost, which will put
back the Rangers over $106 million over the next six years including
his record $51 million posting fee. The reason that Darvish is on
this prospect list and stands separately from previous Japanese
imports is that he’s still only 25-years old, younger than many
prospects included in other organization’s top prospect lists.
Darvish,
of course, is far from inexperienced. He has compiled a 76-28 record
in Japan over the past five years, striking out 1,078 hitters in
1,024 innings. His highest ERA in those five seasons was 1.82 and he
went 18-6, 1.44 with 276 strikeouts and only 36 walks in 232 innings
in 2011.
The
6-foot-5, 215-pound right hander throws an incredible array of
pitches and figuring out how to prioritize his offerings against the
more talented Major League hitters will be a major part of Darvish’s
early learning curve. His low-to-mid 90s fastball has plenty enough
velocity and movement so that he should be able to resist the urge to
pitch backwards with his variety of breaking balls and changeups.
Part
of Darvish’s appeal and uniqueness is his ethnic background. He is
the son of a Japanese mother and Iranian father who met when they
were students in the United States at Eckerd College in Florida.2.
SS Jurickson Profar –
Baseball-reference player profile
Profar
is five and a half years younger than Darvish and is the top prospect
in the Rangers organization under conventional definitions. In fact,
if acclaimed 2012 top prospects such as Darvish, Nationals OF Bryce
Harper, Angels OF Mike Trout and Rays LHP Matt Moore lose their big
league rookie status this year as anticipated, Profar could emerge as
the top prospect in baseball by the end of the 2012 season.
A
native of Curacao, Profar was named the South Atlantic League’s
Most Valuable Player in 2011 despite playing the entire season at
18-years old. A switch-hitter with pure shortstop skills, Profar
combines outstanding tools with very mature skills and off the charts
makeup. He racked up 60 extra base hits and 23 stolen bases in 115
games as one of the youngest players in Low A ball, but his two most
impressive performance numbers were his 65 to 63 walk to strikeout
ratio and his absurdly low 22 errors and .955 fielding percentage at
shortstop (Derek Jeter made 56 errors as a 19 year old in the same
league).
Rangers
shortstop Elvis Andrus is only 23-years old, is under contract until
at least 2014 and is already one of the top shortstops in baseball,
so there is no reason to unduly rush Profar through the system.
However, he may not give the Rangers much choice.3.
LHP Martin Perez –
Baseball-reference player profile
Perez
remains one of the best young left handed pitching prospects in
baseball, but since the Rangers have rushed him continuously over the
past three years it’s hard to get the proper perspective on his
talents at times. Perez was an 18-year old in the South Atlantic
League in 2009 when the Rangers decided to skip him over Hi A
altogether after 90 A ball innings and put him in AA. He predictably
struggled in AA both as an 18-year old and as a 19-year old in 2010
(5-8., 5.96), but when he started to figure it out in 2011 he was
immediately bumped up to AAA and was hammered (72 hits in 49
innings). He has yet to throw 100 innings at any single level in one
season.
If
Perez, a Venezuelan, was enrolled at a US college he would be a 2012
draft eligible and probably a top 10 draft choice. He has a steady
low 90s fastball that will touch 94-95 mph at times and both his
curveball and change up, thrown from a high three-quarters release
point with excellent angle to the plate, are potential plus pitches
as well.4.
3B Michael Olt –
Baseball-reference player profile
The
University of Connecticut received plenty of well deserved notice in
2011 when they had two players, OF George Springer and RHP Matt
Barnes, picked in the first round, plus SS Nick Ahmed selected in the
second round. That type of talent from a northern tier college
program is unusual. But the best player from recent Connecticut
programs might have been Olt, who was the Rangers first round
compensation pick (49th overall) a year earlier.
Olt
missed the second half of the 2011 season with a broken collarbone
but his half season numbers (.267-14-42/.891 OPS, 48 BBs) show the
direction he was heading offensively. He came back and put an
exclamation point on his offensive potential by hitting
.349-13-41/1.197 OPS in 27 games in the Arizona Fall League. The
home run and RBI numbers easily led the league. Olt’s defensive
tools at third base are considered equal to his power and run
production potential.
While
Olt is still at least a year away from being ready for a Major League
job, the Rangers already have one of the American League’s best
third baseman, Adrian Beltre, signed through the 2015 season.
Whether the Rangers consider Olt trade bait as a top prospect or
consider moving him to another position such as left field or first
base over the next year or two will be an interesting story to
follow.5.
CF Leonys Martin –
Baseball-reference player profile
Martin’s
$15.6 million big league contract, signed in May, 2011, represents
the third largest contract ever for a Cuban defector, trailing only
former Cuban National Team outfielder and teammate Yoenis Cespedes
($36M) and Reds LHP Aroldis Chapman ($30M).
The
Rangers are hoping that the left handed hitting Martin represents an
upgrade on the similarly tooled Julio Borbon in centerfield. He has
plus speed that plays up on defense due to his instincts, and his arm
strength is an additional plus defensive weapon. Martin has more
power potential than Borbon, but the one area that he could represent
a significant upgrade would be his ability to reach base and hit at
the top of the lineup.6.
RHP Neil Ramirez –
Baseball-reference player profile
Ramirez
was a 2006 PG/Aflac All-American out of a Virginia high school and a
supplemental first round pick for the Rangers in 2007. His
professional career started off slowly as he battled command issues
and evolving pitching mechanics, but the pieces came together late in
2010 during his repeat season in the South Atlantic League. He
virtually skipped both Hi A and AA in 2011 (23 total innings) and
finished strongly in AAA as a 22-year old despite a stint on the DL
for a sore shoulder.
Ramirez
has two present plus pitches in a 92-94 mph fastball and a big power
curveball that he has learned to command much better than he did
early in his career. His changeup is also a legitimate third pitch.
The Rangers have no shortage of potential starting Major League
pitchers and should have no reason to look to Ramirez early in the
season, but he is close to ready should the need arise.7.
RHP Cody Buckel –
Baseball-reference player profile
Buckel’s
best friend is Arizona Diamondbacks’ 2011 first round pick and top
prospect Trevor Bauer, and the similarities between the two go well
beyond being socially compatible 6-foot right handed pitchers from
Southern California. The two share basic pitching mechanics and
training routines along with their approach to attacking hitters.
Buckel doesn’t have Bauer’s plus to plus/plus raw stuff, but has
four solid pitches in his low 90s fastball, changeup, big breaking
curveball and cutter. The changeup is the big equalizer, especially
with the deception from Buckel’s high energy delivery.
Buckel
also has Bauer’s strikeout ability. He struck out 120 hitters
against only 27 walks in 97 innings while going 8-3, 2.61 in the
South Atlantic League. His history is as a starter, but he could
have a much shorter path to the big leagues as a reliever.8.
LHP Robbie Ross –
Baseball-reference player profile
Perfect
Game compared Ross to a young Mike Hampton while he was in high
school and that comparison still has plenty of validity. Like
Hampton, Ross is a sub 6-foot left hander with very good athleticism,
a deceptive delivery and a very heavy low 90s fastball that forces
hitters to pound the ball into the ground when they work low in the
strike zone (Ross only allowed 1 home run in 123 Carolina League
innings last year). Ross also has Hampton’s signature pitch, a
hard slider that can get under right handed hitter’s hands and
induce more weak ground balls.
Maybe
the best thing that Ross did last year was during his last month
transition from Hi A to AA. Many young pitchers change their
pitching style and approach when they make that jump, but Ross just
got better, improving his command while maintaining his ability to
strike out older and more experienced hitters. He allowed a couple
of home runs but that was likely from challenging hitters and
trusting his stuff rather than from anything else.
Ross
is two years older than fellow prospect Martin Perez, and a notch
below him on the minor league ladder, but has more mature present
stuff. The Rangers already have two of the better young left handed
pitching prospects in the big leagues in southpaws Derek Holland and
Matt Harrison and look like they have more of the same on the way.9.
3B Christian Villanueva –
Baseball-reference player profile
The
Rangers place a huge emphasis on physical tools and there are
literally millions of dollars of young prospects sitting behind the
5-foot-11, 160-pound Villanueva on the Rangers prospect list. But
Villanueva’s ability to use his physical tools may surpass any
other player in the system at this point.
Despite
his average build, Villanueva has some serious juice in right handed
bat. He hit .278-17-84/.803 with 30 doubles as a 19-year old in the
South Atlantic League and has a well controlled swing that squares up
ball consistently and shows his potential as a situational hitter as
well as a power source. He also stole 32 bases in only 38 attempts,
demonstrating plus base-running instincts to make up for only
marginal straight-line speed.
If
anything, Villanueva draws more positive attention for his defense at
third base than his offensive potential. He’s quick and sure
handed and has enough arm strength for any position on the field.
Villanueva has experience in the middle of the infield and it will be
interesting to see if he might develop into an Ian Kinsler-type
second baseman, especially given the Rangers glut of third basemen.10.
OF Jordan Akins –
Baseball-reference player profile
As
if signing multiple Dominican big tool/big money outfield prospects
weren’t enough, the Rangers might have found gold in their 2010
third round draft pick, Jordan Akins, although at the somewhat less
expensive price of a $350,000 signing bonus. That bonus bought Akins
out of a commitment to play both football and baseball at Central
Florida.
The
Rangers knew that Akins was very raw coming into pro ball and he was
the classic two-year rookie ball player, having spent all of the last
two years at the Rangers complex in Arizona. But it clicked for
Akins late in the Arizona Summer League season, and by all accounts
he was a different player during instructional league, showing five
potential plus tools, including well above power potential. It will
be interesting how the present buzz translates to full season A ball
in 2012, but for now Akins is ahead of big dollar Dominicans such as
Nomar Mazara and Ronald Guzman.Others
in the Conversation: C Jorge Alfaro, OF Ronald Guzman, RHP Luke
Jackson, LHP Will Lamb, RHP Barrett Loux, LHP Kevin Matthews, OF
Nomar Mazara, RHP Roman Mendez, RHP Justin Miller, 2B Rougned Odor,
SS Luis Sardinas, RHP Tanner Scheppers, OF Jake Skole, RHP Matt West