SEASONAL PUMPED HYDRO STORAGE IN NEW ENGLAND

Based on the plan of eliminating fossil fuel plants (they emit CO2 and particulates) and nuclear fuel plants (they are alleged to be dangerous) by 2050, the existing gas, nuclear, coal and oil generating plants would be decommissioned and no new ones would be built.

This would require huge build-outs of wind, solar, and storage systems, and increased electricity supply via external ties to adjacent grids. There is no way one can close down nuclear, oil, gas and coal plants, have a major part of NE electricity from wind and solar, and not have TWh scale seasonal storage.

The storage systems would serve to:

1) Provide the peaking, filling-in and balancing services, 24/7/365

2) Smooth the variability and intermittency of wind and solar, 24/7/365

3) Cover extended wind and solar lulls, which occur at random throughout the year

H-Q Building New Plants, Upgrading Other Plants: Increased electricity supply via external ties would require additional HVDC lines to Quebec. These lines could also serve to balance a part of the variability and intermittency of wind and solar, similar to Denmark using Norway’s hydro system to balance its wind electricity. Any peaking, filling-in and balancing services provided by H-Q would mean a lesser capacity of NE storage systems.

Below items 1 through 5 show H-Q would be able to have at least 5000 MW x 8766 x 0.60 = 26,298,000 MWh/y, or 26.3 TWh, for export via new power lines that are being proposed, in addition to existing exports. If that electricity were not there, would various private entities propose HVDC power lines worth billions of dollars?

1) Hydro-Québec Production obtained the necessary approvals to build a 1,550-MW hydroelectric complex on the Rivière Romaine, north of the municipality of Havre-Saint-Pierre on the north shore of the St. Lawrence. The complex will consist of four hydro plants, Romaine 1, 2, 3 and 4, with total average output of 8.0 TWh/y; CF 0.60.

2) Other power plants up north are being refurbished (better water flow) and being upgraded with more efficient turbines, i.e., will produce more electricity.

3) Existing plants not being fully utilized (water over the spillways instead of through the turbines, especially in summer).

4) H-Q building future hydro plants and wind systems.

5) Quebec, New Brunswick and New York supply about 20.8 million MWh/y of electricity to the NE grid. See table 1.

With additional HVDC transmission lines, the above items likely would enable an external tie supply of about 2 x 20.8 = 41.6 million MWh/y by 2050.

Electricity Generation in New England With Pumped Hydro Storage

Assumptions for Determining Storage Requirements: The calculated capacity of the storage system was based on:

- Increased wind and solar to provide remaining electricity supply for demand, including storage system losses.

Storage System Charging and Discharging: Based on ISO-NE generation and load data for 2016, the storage capacity to cover seasonal variations would need to be capable to provide about 8 TWh, delivered as AC.

- Generation from all sources, including the variable wind and solar, would be stored in the reservoirs.

- Water would be drained from the reservoirs, as needed for demand 24/7/365. See Storage Balance graph.

Based on the above-assumed generation, the system would be:

- Charged at about 3 TWh at the start of January

- Charged at about 8 TWh from the middle of May to the middle of June

- Fully discharged at the end of September

- Charged at about 3 TWh from the start of December to the end of January

1) Generation from all sources would have to cover electricity demand, plus an additional 21.9% to cover the round-trip losses of the pumped storage hydro plants.

2) Generation would drive motor-driven turbines to charge the upper reservoirs. The turbines would receive water, via pipes, from the lower reservoirs.

3) Discharge from the upper reservoirs would drive turbine generators to supply electricity to the grid. The water would drain, via pipes, to the lower reservoirs.

4) Items 2 and 3 would be on a 24/7/365 basis.

5) The storage systems would provide the peaking, filling-in and balancing services, as in Norway and Quebec.

H-Q Reservoir Hydro Storage and NE Pumped Hydro Storage: In Quebec, the H-Q reservoirs receive water from the watershed area surrounding each reservoir. Water is withdrawn from the reservoirs, as needed, to generate almost all of the electricity to satisfy the demand of the entire Province of Quebec, 24/7/365, plus to provide about 33 TWh/y for export. H-Q has about 37,000 MW of hydro plants. The active water storage of the reservoir plants is about 1/3 of total storage. The active storage is equivalent to about 176 TWh/y, about equal to Quebec’s annual electricity requirements.

In NE, with pumped storage, during windy and sunny days, wind and solar electricity generation, which could total at least 15,000 MW, must be stored. That means at least 15,000 MW of pump-turbine sets would be required to pump water from the lower reservoirs to the upper reservoirs. The estimated turnkey capital cost would be 15000 x $2 million/MW = $30 billion.

During high system demand days, usually during summer (water flowing from the upper reservoirs to the lower reservoirs), about 30,000 MW of turbine-generators sets would be required to generate almost all of the electricity to satisfy the NE demand, 24/7/365, plus an additional 21.9% to cover the round-trip losses of the pumped storage hydro plants, less whatever is supplied by other sources, and via external ties. The estimated turnkey capital cost would be 30000 x $2 million/MW = $60 billion.

The active water storage would be about 37 billion m3 for the upper reservoirs, plus 37 billion m3 for the lower reservoirs.

Total storage would be 3 x 37 = 112 billion m3 for the upper reservoirs, plus 112 billion m3 for the lower reservoirs.

The building of the reservoirs would require damming up dozens of NE valleys to create lower reservoirs and connect them to upper reservoirs. A large number of people, and the detritus of modernity, etc., would need to be removed and relocated elsewhere. The estimated turnkey capital cost would be $50 to $100 billion.

The estimated total turnkey capital cost would be 30 + 60 + (50 to 100) = $140 to $190 billion. This obviously is a ballpark number, but it gives some idea of the implications of closing nuclear and fossil plants. Any peaking, filling-in and balancing services provided by H-Q would mean a lesser capacity of NE storage systems.

Storage System Capacity: It is assumed the storage system would consist of a number of 100 MW pumped storage plants, each with upper and lower reservoirs.

NOTE: This assumption is purely hypothetical, because, as shown above, about 15000 MW of pumping and about 30000 MW of electricity generation would be required. However, the assumption enables the calculation of the water volume of the active storage.

Static head is 85 meter; charging head 89.25 m; discharging head 80.75 m.

Efficiency = 0.98, transformer x 0.95, motor x 0.95, turbine = 0.884

Water storage increases by the equivalent of 5/0.884 = 5.66 TWh from end Jan. to end May, or 4/12 x 8766 = 2922 h, to deliver 5 TWh as AC to the HV grid.

Water storage decreases by the equivalent of 8/0.884 = 9.05 TWh to 0 TWh, to deliver 8 TWh as AC to the HV grid.

NOTE: If delivering 100 MWh from the storage system to the HV grid, about 100/0.884 = 113 MWh has to be in storage, which requires a supply from the HV grid of about 113/0.884 = 128 MWh. The AC-to-AC round-trip efficiency is 100/128 = 0.781, which is average for pumped storage.

The addition of pumped storage systems requires an additional 21.9% of electricity to the system load. Energy systems analysts often do not mention this inconvenient fact. See table 1.

Pumping

This calculation assumes a steady supply of water during the 2922 hours of filling time. The below calculation shows 29 x 100 = 2900 MW of pumping capacity is required.

In reality, this is not the case, because on windy and sunny days, wind and solar electricity generation could total at least 15,000 MW and the pumping capacity would need to match that level of generation.

- Initially the reservoir contained 88.5 billion m3, the water equivalent of 3.39 TWh, to deliver about 3 TWh as AC to the HV grid.

- From the end January to the end of May, about 23 billion m3 was added to the reservoir, the water equivalent of 5.66 TWh, which topped off the reservoir at 111.5 billion m3.

- From the end of May to the end of September, the reservoir provided 37 billion m3, the water equivalent of 9.05 TWh, which reduced the reservoir to 74.5 billion m3, to deliver about 8 TWh as AC to the HV grid.

Reservoir Status

TWh eq

Change

Status

billion m3

billion m3

Initial

88.5

Increase

5.66

23

111.5

Decrease

9.05

-37

74.5

APPENDIX 1

100% RE folks often talk about wind and solar being so competitive with fossil and nuclear. They likely have near-zero experience designing energy systems, but pontificate anyway, and get listened to by legislators and bureaucrats. What they do not mention is the various costs charged to the public, which make wind and solar appear less costly/kWh than in reality, such as:

– Any peaking, filling-in and balancing performed by the other generators – Any battery systems to stabilize distribution grids with many solar systems. – Any measures to deal with DUCK curves, such as utility-scale storage and demand management – Any grid expansions and augmentations to connect distributed solar systems

Those costs, as c/kWh, are not easily quantified, and as a result they are charged to ratepayers via rate schedules, and to taxpayers. Ultimately, they are reflected in the increased costs of goods and services, which usually act as a headwind to economic growth. There is no free lunch.

For example, to bring wind electricity from the Panhandle in west Texas to population centers in east Texas, $7 billion of transmission was built. The entire cost was “socialized” as a surcharge on residential electric bills.

New England Will Have Brownouts and Higher Electricity Prices: During the bitter cold stretch that started right after Christmas and continued into 2018, ISO-NE had a tough time keeping the electricity flowing to homes and businesses throughout New England.

Facing a shortage of natural gas because of a dearth of pipeline capacity, they relied on old oil and coal plants to provide enough electricity.

With oil supplies rapidly running low, ISO-NE, responsible for ensuring the region’s electricity supply, said keeping the whole system up and running proved “extremely challenging” as operators “worked around the clock to keep the power flowing and the grid stable.”

All those plants are connected to the high voltage network. Modulating the water flows through the turbines performs the peaking, filling-in and balancing, PFB, functions.

The combined storage reservoirs act as a giant battery that is continuously charged with rainwater and runoff and discharges water through turbines, as needed to meet electricity demand 24/7/365, year after year.

The HV networks of Denmark, Germany and the Netherlands are connected to the HV network of Norway with HVDC lines. During periods of higher winds, electricity (usually at near-zero or negative wholesale prices) is sent via these lines to Norway, which merely reduces the water flow through the turbines.

Norway uses the “saved” water to generate electricity when wholesale prices are high, such as during wind and solar lulls and higher demands. Germany would like to send its excess electricity from North Germany to South Germany but HVDC lines, already 15 years overdue, do not exist, mostly due to NIMBY concerns.

Quebec Electricity Generating System

Quebec electricity, generated and purchased, was about 217 TWh in 2016, of which about 172 TWh/y from 36911 MW of 63 large hydro plants.

- Run of river, 35 plants, capacity 10068 MW, production about 47.3 TWh in 2016

The active water storage of the reservoir plants is about 1/3 of total storage. The active storage is equivalent to about 176 TWh/y, about equal to Quebec’s annual electricity requirements.

The active storage could generate another 176 - 124.7 = 51.3 TWh/y, however, this is dependent on environmental impacts, recreation, water levels, flow rates, navigation, flood control, and the weather.

All plants are connected to the high voltage network. Modulating the water flows through the turbines performs PFB functions.

The combined storage reservoirs act as a giant battery that is continuously charged with rainwater and runoff and discharges water through turbines, as needed to meet electricity demand 24/7/365, year after year.

In 2016, Quebec total net exports were 32.6 TWh, of which 20.8 TWh, directly or indirectly, to New England (per ISO-NE) and 11.8 TWh to other states, such as New York State. Revenues were $1.568 billion; average sales prices 4.8 c/kWh.

Modulating the outputs of the gas turbines, which requires more Btu/kWh and emits more CO2/kWh, performs most of the PFB functions. The modulating would increase as more wind and solar is added to the system.

NE wholesale prices have averaged about 4.5 to 5 c/kWh since 2009. Closing down gas, nuclear, coal (all of which generate at less than 5 c/kWh), and oil plants, would create a huge generation deficiency that likely would need to be offset mostly by increased build outs of wind, solar, refuse, hydro, plus increased imports via tie lines, plus large-scale storage systems. The PFB functions would be performed by storage systems to accommodate the variability and intermittency of wind and solar.

- Whereas, the turnkey capital costs of battery systems likely would be about 50% less over the next decade, that storage approach would never be cheap enough to accommodate the big seasonal shifts in renewable power production.

- Battery systems could prove viable for storing solar electricity produced during midday hours for use during late afternoon/early evening hours, and “maybe” for up to a week later, but not over seasonal time­frames.

- New technologies are needed to convert “low-cost” renewable energy into chemical fuel whenever excess solar and wind electricity is available. Low-cost hydrogen from renewables, stored underground, may become an economically feasible approach. See note.

- Fuel cells hold more promise for urban power storage, particularly those based on liquid hydrocarbons. However, whereas technically feasible, they are not economical at present.

NOTE: One approach would be to produce electricity with base-loaded nuclear plants, and produce hydrogen with electricity and store it in underground caverns all over the world. This would need to apply to at least 70 - 80% of total primary energy, not just the 40% used for producing electricity.

This study shows 100% wind, solar and hydro, as advocated by Jacobson and others, would yield an inoperable electrical system in the UK. The lack of firm and dispatchable ‘backup’ energy systems – such as nuclear or power plants equipped with carbon capture systems – means the electricity supply would fail often enough that the system would be deemed inoperable. Even with 77% wind, solar and hydro, plus nuclear and biomass, about 9% of the year demand would not be met. Clearly, significant storage systems would be required.

NOTE: Electrical systems typically have 99.97% reliability or better, i.e., demand is not met only 0.03% of the year.

The important things are the capital costs involved in having a lot of expensive fuel (water) pumped up into the in the upper lake and using it essentially once a year. A conventional pumped storage could make its water work twice a day.

Hannah Pingree on the Maine expedited wind law

Hannah Pingree - Director of Maine's Office of Innovation and the Future

"Once the committee passed the wind energy bill on to the full House and Senate, lawmakers there didn’t even debate it. They passed it unanimously and with no discussion. House Majority Leader Hannah Pingree, a Democrat from North Haven, says legislators probably didn’t know how many turbines would be constructed in Maine."

Maine Center For Public Interest Reporting – Three Part Series: A CRITICAL LOOK AT MAINE’S WIND ACT

******** IF LINKS BELOW DON'T WORK, GOOGLE THEM*********

(excerpts) From Part 1 – On Maine’s Wind Law “Once the committee passed the wind energy bill on to the full House and Senate, lawmakers there didn’t even debate it. They passed it unanimously and with no discussion. House Majority Leader Hannah Pingree, a Democrat from North Haven, says legislators probably didn’t know how many turbines would be constructed in Maine if the law’s goals were met." . – Maine Center for Public Interest Reporting, August 2010 https://www.pinetreewatchdog.org/wind-power-bandwagon-hits-bumps-in-the-road-3/From Part 2 – On Wind and Oil Yet using wind energy doesn’t lower dependence on imported foreign oil. That’s because the majority of imported oil in Maine is used for heating and transportation. And switching our dependence from foreign oil to Maine-produced electricity isn’t likely to happen very soon, says Bartlett. “Right now, people can’t switch to electric cars and heating – if they did, we’d be in trouble.” So was one of the fundamental premises of the task force false, or at least misleading?" https://www.pinetreewatchdog.org/wind-swept-task-force-set-the-rules/From Part 3 – On Wind-Required New Transmission Lines Finally, the building of enormous, high-voltage transmission lines that the regional electricity system operator says are required to move substantial amounts of wind power to markets south of Maine was never even discussed by the task force – an omission that Mills said will come to haunt the state.“If you try to put 2,500 or 3,000 megawatts in northern or eastern Maine – oh, my god, try to build the transmission!” said Mills. “It’s not just the towers, it’s the lines – that’s when I begin to think that the goal is a little farfetched.” https://www.pinetreewatchdog.org/flaws-in-bill-like-skating-with-dull-skates/

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