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If Biden fails, Bernie will be president

Everyone is talking about Elizabeth Warren and when/if she will pass Joe Biden.
Bernie Sanders has been almost forgotten.

If you look at the polls, then Bernie will clean Warren's clock if Biden's campaign collapses.
So far Warren has benefited from the collapse of Harris' campaign, because Warren is the top second choice of both Kamala Harris and Pete Buttigieg supporters.

It's not even close. If Biden fails, Bernie will be the overwhelming beneficiary. Not Warren.
And Biden's pool of voters is bigger than Harris' and Warren's combined. So if Biden flounders, and most people think he will, Sanders' numbers will shoot through the roof like a rocket!
Those two surveys were from May. The one in February found the exact same thing, so there is a consistent pattern.

The other thing that needs to be pointed out is that because of California moving up its primary, Super Tuesday (March 3) will probably be the effective ending of the primary season.
So who does good in the early states makes a huge difference.

Here's the thing: Even without Biden's supporters, Bernie is ahead of Warren in almost ALL of the early states.
So forget the national polls. If Biden flounders as expected, then by March 4th the pundits will be asking if Bernie will pick Warren as his running mate, while most of the candidates drop out of the race.

@Wally
Sundays for Bernie's Future movement to support a Tulsi/Sanders/Tulsi ticket.
This little guy seemed to be very determined to support Bernie in his young age.
Now he has grown up to be a famous banker and he still is supporting Bernie. Can't you see it?

it would be interesting to see how the numbers shake out now that Harris has faded and Warren has ascended over the past couple of weeks. If the Spring trends have held, then 2020 could be very exciting indeed.

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Lurking in the wings is Hillary, like some terrifying bat hanging by her feet in a cavern below the DNC. A bat with theropod instincts. -- Fred Reed https://tinyurl.com/vgvuhcl

@laurel
as the MSM is making it out to be. They just want to minimize Bernie as much as possible.

it would be interesting to see how the numbers shake out now that Harris has faded and Warren has ascended over the past couple of weeks. If the Spring trends have held, then 2020 could be very exciting indeed.

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"The secret of change is to focus all your energy, not on fighting the old, but on building the new." Socrates (469-399 BC)

I get the MSM fear @BernieSanders. But the claim he is history is absurd. Latest IA poll (CBS) has him in 2nd, just 3% behind Biden. Latest NH poll (B. Herald) has Sanders in first. Latest SC poll (CBS) has Sanders in 2nd. Latest NV +CA polls (CBS) have him 1st.

Regardless of whether Bernie has the most support among Democratic voters or the general population come convention time, the official nominee will be whoever they prefer. They will have complete control of a brokered convention.

These DNC party members are not bound to follow the wishes of the party rank and file, as demonstrated by the stunning lack of discussion on the Climate Crisis we face:

From readsludge.com:
Just last month, DNC members voted 222-137 against allowing a presidential debate focused on the issue of the climate crisis. The roll call for that vote still has not been released, and many DNC members are known to be lobbyists for the fossil fuel industry.
After the contested 2016 Democratic Primary, where it was revealed that the DNC was funneling money for the Hillary Clinton campaign, a series of DNC meetings sought to add greater transparency to the rules and nomination process. But many of these accountability reforms are currently in flux, and there's a possibility the 2020 convention will be "brokered"—that is, if no candidate wins a majority of delegates on the first ballot, superdelegates (including scores of lobbyists) may determine the winner on the second ballot.

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“Unthinking respect for authority is the greatest enemy of truth.”
Albert Einstein

The 359 DNC members will decide, as usual.
Regardless of whether Bernie has the most support among Democratic voters or the general population come convention time, the official nominee will be whoever they prefer. They will have complete control of a brokered convention.

Regardless of whether Bernie has the most support among Democratic voters or the general population come convention time, the official nominee will be whoever they prefer. They will have complete control of a brokered convention.

These DNC party members are not bound to follow the wishes of the party rank and file, as demonstrated by the stunning lack of discussion on the Climate Crisis we face:

From readsludge.com:
Just last month, DNC members voted 222-137 against allowing a presidential debate focused on the issue of the climate crisis. The roll call for that vote still has not been released, and many DNC members are known to be lobbyists for the fossil fuel industry.
After the contested 2016 Democratic Primary, where it was revealed that the DNC was funneling money for the Hillary Clinton campaign, a series of DNC meetings sought to add greater transparency to the rules and nomination process. But many of these accountability reforms are currently in flux, and there's a possibility the 2020 convention will be "brokered"—that is, if no candidate wins a majority of delegates on the first ballot, superdelegates (including scores of lobbyists) may determine the winner on the second ballot.

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Actually, the issue at stake is patriotism. You must return to your world and put an end to the Commies. All it takes are a few good men.
--Q

The 359 DNC members will decide, as usual.
Regardless of whether Bernie has the most support among Democratic voters or the general population come convention time, the official nominee will be whoever they prefer. They will have complete control of a brokered convention.

@ovals49
then why have they allowed Sanders to get this far?
If they've got this all fine-tuned then shouldn't they have crushed Sanders before now?

Or is this some sort of 11th dimensional chess I keep hearing about?

Regardless of whether Bernie has the most support among Democratic voters or the general population come convention time, the official nominee will be whoever they prefer. They will have complete control of a brokered convention.

These DNC party members are not bound to follow the wishes of the party rank and file, as demonstrated by the stunning lack of discussion on the Climate Crisis we face:

From readsludge.com:
Just last month, DNC members voted 222-137 against allowing a presidential debate focused on the issue of the climate crisis. The roll call for that vote still has not been released, and many DNC members are known to be lobbyists for the fossil fuel industry.
After the contested 2016 Democratic Primary, where it was revealed that the DNC was funneling money for the Hillary Clinton campaign, a series of DNC meetings sought to add greater transparency to the rules and nomination process. But many of these accountability reforms are currently in flux, and there's a possibility the 2020 convention will be "brokered"—that is, if no candidate wins a majority of delegates on the first ballot, superdelegates (including scores of lobbyists) may determine the winner on the second ballot.

@gjohnsit
following that Bernie acquired in 2016 and still maintains. They're doing everything in their power to minimize him and get him off the stage, but THE PEOPLE won't have it. That's my take, anyway.

#3
then why have they allowed Sanders to get this far?
If they've got this all fine-tuned then shouldn't they have crushed Sanders before now?

Or is this some sort of 11th dimensional chess I keep hearing about?

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"The secret of change is to focus all your energy, not on fighting the old, but on building the new." Socrates (469-399 BC)

. . . will show up en masse to vote in the primaries and cough up $27 now and then to Bernie's campaign. Phone banking, canvassing, etc. ain't peanuts either.

#3.2
following that Bernie acquired in 2016 and still maintains. They're doing everything in their power to minimize him and get him off the stage, but THE PEOPLE won't have it. That's my take, anyway.

so that they can convince them to give their support to Warren (or Kamala, except that that plan has had to be scrapped. Whoops.)

If Bernie supporters go to Warren they can bolster her credibility as a progressive, or a liberal, or a kind centrist, or whatever the hell she's supposed to be.

Also, just keeping as many people as possible involved bolsters the credibility of the stupid game they're playing.

#3.2
following that Bernie acquired in 2016 and still maintains. They're doing everything in their power to minimize him and get him off the stage, but THE PEOPLE won't have it. That's my take, anyway.

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Actually, the issue at stake is patriotism. You must return to your world and put an end to the Commies. All it takes are a few good men.
--Q

@Cant Stop the Macedonian Signal
If 95% of the population didn't vote, the political and media establishment would still go about business like the elections were legit. It happens in other countries all the time.

For me, the time to make that decision will be Super Tuesday on March 3rd. Or maybe later. Or maybe not at all if Bernie pulls off a miracle and gets the nomination and wins the presidency. Stranger things have happened. And that's an understatement given Trump just three short years ago.

I realize more than a few folks made that decision in 2016 but I really believe this time around TPTB overthought themselves and are now shooting each other in a crossfire making it possible for Bernie to squeak through.

For me, the time to make that decision will be Super Tuesday on March 3rd. Or maybe later. Or maybe not at all if Bernie pulls off a miracle and gets the nomination and wins the presidency. Stranger things have happened. And that's an understatement given Trump just three short years ago.

I realize more than a few folks made that decision in 2016 but I really believe this time around TPTB overthought themselves and are now shooting each other in a crossfire making it possible for Bernie to squeak through.

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Actually, the issue at stake is patriotism. You must return to your world and put an end to the Commies. All it takes are a few good men.
--Q

Imminent collapse? I don't see it. Funny how the gubmint buys into socialism for the rich when it's needed to sustain the economy.

I don't see "the system" going away or changing very much for a very long time if Bernie doesn't win the nomination. I figure he's a chance of our lifetimes that won't come again. I'm willing to make a Pascal's wager. What's to lose?

If it looks like Bernie can't pull it off come Super Tuesday, so it goes. Que sera, sera.

@gjohnsit
agreed to support and endorse the Democratic Party nominee, whoever it may be and however that choice is made. Bernie’s endorsement brings millions of reliable voters in and millions of Bernie dollars passing through Act Blue, which may, once again, be redirected as needed.

If there is a brokered convention, I would expect the previous Democratic candidate, who garnered over 5 million votes more than Obama did in ‘08, will only be too happy to help out the Party with a Trump grudge match, if asked.

#3
then why have they allowed Sanders to get this far?
If they've got this all fine-tuned then shouldn't they have crushed Sanders before now?

Or is this some sort of 11th dimensional chess I keep hearing about?

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“Unthinking respect for authority is the greatest enemy of truth.”
Albert Einstein

Does anyone else think that it's pretty weird that the people that now support Biden would choose someone at the opposite end of the spectrum as their second choice? What goes on in the minds of these people?

That's enough for a lot of people. MSM will never admit how widely and deeply Hillary was and is still loathed - from both ends and even parts of the middle of the political spectrum.

And don't forget that Biden's base has the largest number and percentage of AAs by a considerable margin and they are largely in an older demographic. Many see Biden as a safe bet and are adversely affected by the negative propaganda against Bernie but somehow and rightly so still like him enough to make him their backup choice.

Biden, according to MSNBC's Joy Ann Reid (certainly not my favorite talking head corporate propagandist), is looked upon by AAs as a racist but not all that bad a racist and that's about the best they can expect. And Obama obviously liked him enough to pick and stick with him as VP.

But how long will Biden be able to escape widespread criticism regarding his less than stellar record and his ongoing "gaffes" regarding the Black community? It doesn't look like his "white man's burden"-like record player comments have yet impacted too much on his poll numbers. But then again, sometimes it takes time to percolate and we're still 5-6 months until things really get heated up.

BTW, in case folks haven't yet come across the disgustingly vile BS the WFP leadership is throwing at Berners, please be advised they now casting aspersions upon us as being full fledged white terrorists. Same ol' shit over and over again without any proof.

The only tweets that use language like what's referenced in this letter I see are from Trump-supporting accounts, not Bernie. Bernie campaign is traumatized from Clinton using this tactic last time and it will work again. https://t.co/svDRvmgAeChttps://t.co/QhgpQmRygA

Does anyone else think that it's pretty weird that the people that now support Biden would choose someone at the opposite end of the spectrum as their second choice? What goes on in the minds of these people?

@burnt out
Like AA people rejecting the guy who marched with MLK for the "co-President" who rolled back the advances hard-won in the 60's.

Others have explained it here, but I still think it was "anybody but the Jew".

Does anyone else think that it's pretty weird that the people that now support Biden would choose someone at the opposite end of the spectrum as their second choice? What goes on in the minds of these people?

@The Voice In the Wilderness
And I have read before and tend to believe it as well that most black voters know good and damned well nothing changes for them by voting, they've seen this movie their entire lives. So while those of us out here who hope for change may vote accordingly, there is a large base of people, obviously not only AA either, who see that it really does not matter which idiot they choose, nothing substantial will change anyway. It's the reason many people, again not only AA, don't even bother to vote. Sadly, most of the time they're spot on there, if not all of the time...

#4
Like AA people rejecting the guy who marched with MLK for the "co-President" who rolled back the advances hard-won in the 60's.

Others have explained it here, but I still think it was "anybody but the Jew".

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Only a fool lets someone else tell him who his enemy is. Assata Shakur

@lizzyh7
reference to AA voters was just a simile.
Thought I needed to clarify that.
My wife always speaks in pronouns and I haven't the slightest idea who or what she is referring to.

#4.2 And I have read before and tend to believe it as well that most black voters know good and damned well nothing changes for them by voting, they've seen this movie their entire lives. So while those of us out here who hope for change may vote accordingly, there is a large base of people, obviously not only AA either, who see that it really does not matter which idiot they choose, nothing substantial will change anyway. It's the reason many people, again not only AA, don't even bother to vote. Sadly, most of the time they're spot on there, if not all of the time...

@burnt out
the other way too -- the leading second choice of those who prefer Sanders is Biden. So obviously we're seeing something more than ideology at play. Ideology is very important to most folks here and on a few active leftish boards, but not with many of the Great Unwashed out there who aren't quite the political junkies many of us are.

Social-economic-educational factors clearly play a major role with Biden and Bernie backers. Biden and Bernie both get a lot of non-college support, POC and working class. They can be considered the RFK candidates. The major differences in their bases are re age: Biden gets the older landline voters, while Sanders gets the under-40 group.

Warren, the former Harvard prof, currently has a narrower Gene McCarthy base -- white educated middle class. When you look at the second choice for her supporters, from an ideological perspective it makes sense -- they choose Bernie.

I would agree that Bernie is in a slightly better position than Warren to pick up disaffected Biden voters once his deteriorating mental state is exposed. But Warren is enjoying increasingly favorable MSM coverage, and this could influence especially older Biden backers (the group spending more time with traditional media and not online chat boards) to make the switch to her. Warren, unlike Gene McCarthy of yesteryear, is also interested in expanding her base, and has a solid campaign team to achieve this. I would not underestimate her although I give Bernie a marginally better chance at getting the nom.

Does anyone else think that it's pretty weird that the people that now support Biden would choose someone at the opposite end of the spectrum as their second choice? What goes on in the minds of these people?

@wokkamile
In 2016 I talked with Trump supporters that I met in various public places. I would talk to them of Bernie and they would say "Oh, he's good too!" meaning, to me, that they hated the current system and wanted change, any change. Trump is still running as a change candidate. Trump will beat Biden in a walk. He stands a good chance of beating Bernie too. The battle is in the purple states where people may feel that Trump isn't as bad as they feared or that Trump is at least the Devil they know. And the MSM will be solidly Trump. MSNBC and CNN may not be overtly Trump but they will report and magnify any and all Sanders campaign mistakes.
They are owned by the 1% and they can keep the anti-Trump viewing base by portraying Bernie as worse. just like "BERNIE SANDERS WANTS TO TAKE AWAY YOUR HEALTH INSURANCE".

#4 the other way too -- the leading second choice of those who prefer Sanders is Biden. So obviously we're seeing something more than ideology at play. Ideology is very important to most folks here and on a few active leftish boards, but not with many of the Great Unwashed out there who aren't quite the political junkies many of us are.

Social-economic-educational factors clearly play a major role with Biden and Bernie backers. Biden and Bernie both get a lot of non-college support, POC and working class. They can be considered the RFK candidates. The major differences in their bases are re age: Biden gets the older landline voters, while Sanders gets the under-40 group.

Warren, the former Harvard prof, currently has a narrower Gene McCarthy base -- white educated middle class. When you look at the second choice for her supporters, from an ideological perspective it makes sense -- they choose Bernie.

I would agree that Bernie is in a slightly better position than Warren to pick up disaffected Biden voters once his deteriorating mental state is exposed. But Warren is enjoying increasingly favorable MSM coverage, and this could influence especially older Biden backers (the group spending more time with traditional media and not online chat boards) to make the switch to her. Warren, unlike Gene McCarthy of yesteryear, is also interested in expanding her base, and has a solid campaign team to achieve this. I would not underestimate her although I give Bernie a marginally better chance at getting the nom.

It seems that if Warren is trying to expand her base, she's going about it the wrong way. And it seems the Brockbots are pushing her candidacy (also in the wrong way). But she will be judged by the company she keeps.

#4 the other way too -- the leading second choice of those who prefer Sanders is Biden. So obviously we're seeing something more than ideology at play. Ideology is very important to most folks here and on a few active leftish boards, but not with many of the Great Unwashed out there who aren't quite the political junkies many of us are.

Social-economic-educational factors clearly play a major role with Biden and Bernie backers. Biden and Bernie both get a lot of non-college support, POC and working class. They can be considered the RFK candidates. The major differences in their bases are re age: Biden gets the older landline voters, while Sanders gets the under-40 group.

Warren, the former Harvard prof, currently has a narrower Gene McCarthy base -- white educated middle class. When you look at the second choice for her supporters, from an ideological perspective it makes sense -- they choose Bernie.

I would agree that Bernie is in a slightly better position than Warren to pick up disaffected Biden voters once his deteriorating mental state is exposed. But Warren is enjoying increasingly favorable MSM coverage, and this could influence especially older Biden backers (the group spending more time with traditional media and not online chat boards) to make the switch to her. Warren, unlike Gene McCarthy of yesteryear, is also interested in expanding her base, and has a solid campaign team to achieve this. I would not underestimate her although I give Bernie a marginally better chance at getting the nom.

@Wally@Wally
quietly picking up support among AAs according to latest nationwide surveys, going from single digits support to low double figures. Still behind Biden and Sanders, but improving.

But if she does very well in the first two contests with overwhelmingly white populations, IA and NH, then many in heavily AA South Carolina would be favorably inclined to her, wanting to back a winner.

And importantly she leads the other candidates among Latino voters, the largest minority voting group.

Sorry, not familiar with some of the other things you bring up, but I suspect most of that -- the WFP endorsement, twitter skirmishes, and whatever D Brock is up to -- is just too insider baseball and won't be a factor for most folks.

It seems that if Warren is trying to expand her base, she's going about it the wrong way. And it seems the Brockbots are pushing her candidacy (also in the wrong way). But she will be judged by the company she keeps.

#4.3.2#4.3.2 quietly picking up support among AAs according to latest nationwide surveys, going from single digits support to low double figures. Still behind Biden and Sanders, but improving.

But if she does very well in the first two contests with overwhelmingly white populations, IA and NH, then many in heavily AA South Carolina would be favorably inclined to her, wanting to back a winner.

And importantly she leads the other candidates among Latino voters, the largest minority voting group.

Sorry, not familiar with some of the other things you bring up, but I suspect most of that -- the WFP endorsement, twitter skirmishes, and whatever D Brock is up to -- is just too insider baseball and won't be a factor for most folks.

And it didn't come from Bernie who has been holding his own and inching up. I don't see anybody surging or plummeting at this point although that's the drama MSM and their spinmeisters like to concoct.

And I think Harris had more than a few white Hillary supporters at first who are now breaking towards WARren.

Then too I've noticed more and more frequent MSM attacks on WARren that presumably come from the Obama/Biden camp, and certainly not from Bernie. Here are a few that I've saved but I've come across more:

If being the most important part. I don't see the DNC allowing Biden to fail. Short of a medical incident that leaves him incapacitated, Biden will be rammed down our throats. We'll be told to hold our nose and vote for him. Just like in 2016.

@crbngville
I’m picturing a marionette “Weekend at Biden’s” situation if things get that bad.

If being the most important part. I don't see the DNC allowing Biden to fail. Short of a medical incident that leaves him incapacitated, Biden will be rammed down our throats. We'll be told to hold our nose and vote for him. Just like in 2016.

@tle
on exactly how Biden "drops out". He has money and establishment support, so I don't see him withdrawing from the campaign until after Super Tuesday. I'm expecting his support to decline, and for him to go through the first few primaries winning few if any delegates. After Super Tuesday it would be obvious that he isn't going to make it, even with super delegate support.
One scenario is for Warren (currently enjoying a surge) to overtake Biden in polling. That brings his electability into question and some of his support would bleed out -- to Sanders if the second choice polling is to be believed. That transitions from a three-way race to a two-way race, with Biden perhaps falling below the 15 percent threshold to get delegates.
By the time Biden formally withdraws, his endorsement may not be worth much.

How many clueless voters would fall in line?

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"The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function." -- Albert Bartlett

The same DNC and state party officials who cheated Bernie in 2016 are still in place. Bernie may begin the convention with the best popular vote total, yet still losing the nomination. Looks to me like Warren is sorta becoming Hilly/Obama 2.0.

The Washington Post (owned by the world’s richest person, Jeff Bezos), for example, claimed that Sanders’s assertion that millions of US residents were working multiple jobs was “misleading” because it was only eight million people, which represented a minority of the workforce, and that many of those extra jobs were part-time. It also gave his statement that six people (one of whom is Bezos) have as much wealth as the bottom half of the world’s population ‘three Pinocchios’ – the designation just below the most egregious lie. This was because, they argued, billionaires’ wealth is tied up in stocks, not money itself, and that most people own essentially nothing. For them, this apparently disproved the Vermont senator’s well-sourced claim.

The Post also attacked the idea that Sanders is supported by ordinary people in an article titled Bernie Sanders Keeps Saying His Average Donation is $27, but His Own Numbers Contradict That. What was the contradiction it found? That the average donation was actually $27.89, not $27.

The Washington Post (owned by the world’s richest person, Jeff Bezos), for example, claimed that Sanders’s assertion that millions of US residents were working multiple jobs was “misleading” because it was only eight million people, which represented a minority of the workforce, and that many of those extra jobs were part-time. It also gave his statement that six people (one of whom is Bezos) have as much wealth as the bottom half of the world’s population ‘three Pinocchios’ – the designation just below the most egregious lie. This was because, they argued, billionaires’ wealth is tied up in stocks, not money itself, and that most people own essentially nothing. For them, this apparently disproved the Vermont senator’s well-sourced claim.

The Post also attacked the idea that Sanders is supported by ordinary people in an article titled Bernie Sanders Keeps Saying His Average Donation is $27, but His Own Numbers Contradict That. What was the contradiction it found? That the average donation was actually $27.89, not $27.

The Washington Post (owned by the world’s richest person, Jeff Bezos), for example, claimed that Sanders’s assertion that millions of US residents were working multiple jobs was “misleading” because it was only eight million people, which represented a minority of the workforce, and that many of those extra jobs were part-time. It also gave his statement that six people (one of whom is Bezos) have as much wealth as the bottom half of the world’s population ‘three Pinocchios’ – the designation just below the most egregious lie. This was because, they argued, billionaires’ wealth is tied up in stocks, not money itself, and that most people own essentially nothing. For them, this apparently disproved the Vermont senator’s well-sourced claim.

The Post also attacked the idea that Sanders is supported by ordinary people in an article titled Bernie Sanders Keeps Saying His Average Donation is $27, but His Own Numbers Contradict That. What was the contradiction it found? That the average donation was actually $27.89, not $27.

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"The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function." -- Albert Bartlett