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John Pricci

HorseRaceInsider.com executive editor John Pricci has over three decades of experience as a thoroughbred racing public handicapper and was an award-winning journalist while at New York Newsday for 18 years.

John has covered 14 Kentucky Derbies and Preaknesses, all but three Breeders' Cups since its inception in 1984, and has seen all but two Belmont Stakes live since 1969.

Currently John is a contributing racing writer to MSNBC.com, an analyst on the Capital Off-Track Betting television network, and co-hosts numerous handicapping seminars. He resides in Saratoga Springs, New York.

Saturday, April 12, 2014

Based on Saturday's results, the big winners were Dance With Fate, who zoomed from Derby obscurity to third on the qualifying list, and Danza, also coming from nowhere to finish in sixth position.

Ride on Curlin’s Arkansas Derby placing was good enough to raise his seed to #12; Tapiture, safely in at #14 despite his disappointing Arkansas Derby, and Blue Grass runnerup Medal Count also appears safely in at #18.

Those that ran themselves out of serious consideration include Vinceramos, Harry’s Holiday, Big Bazinga, Coastline, Strong Mandate and Commissioner. Of those, Big Bazinga made a good effort to finish fourth in the Blue Grass but the rest disappointed--Strong Mandate and Commissioner in a big way.

Ultimately, we’ll find out whether or not Dance With Fate is well named, but this much is certain: Until approximately 6:40 p.m. on May 3rd, it will be enough to know that he can handles any footing, albeit excelling on synthetic ones.

Saturday’s completely authoritative score in the Blue Grass, ending the All-Weather Derby prep era in Lexington, now has a Grade 1 win to go with his Grade 1 placings in the 2013 Del Mar Futurity and Front Runner at Santa Anita.

With a turf victory at the allowance level two starts back, he’s now has won twice on synthetics and once on grass to go with a Grade 1 placing on dirt.

Well prepared by trainer Peter Eurton, he was confidently handled while moving wide into contention at headstretch beneath Corey Nakatani, racing under the line is full stride appearing not to reach bottom. It was an impressive run that validates his entry into the Derby.

In finishing second, Medal Count, winner of the G3 Transylvania on the Keeneland Poly eight days ago returned with an excellent effort, earned 40 qualifying points in the process and punched his ticket to Louisville if his people are so inclined.

Pacesetting Pablo Del Monte added a G1 stakes placing to go with his two prior daylight wins over the Keeneland surface at 2.

Any chance that defending Eclipse Award-winning owners Ken and Sarah Ramsey would have a third horse in the Louisville starting gate evaporated when the talented turf runner Bobby’s Kitten was unable to transfer that form to synthetic.

Well, you didn’t expect the Toddster to get shut out on such an occasion, did you? Quick, prior to Danza’s shocker in the Arkansas Derby, name the last runner he saddled that paid off at 41-1. You probably shouldn’t tax the gray matter on that one.

Much of the credit must go to not only Pletcher, who had Danza ready to win a solidly run Arkansas Derby off a single third-place finish at 7 furlongs March 1st at Gulfstream Park. The race was his fourth lifetime start and his first around two turns.

But the major props belong to Joe Carpe Diem Bravo, who shut up the fence with the Street Boss colt with five-sixteenths of a mile left to run. After establishing some separation soon after entering the straight, the stretch run lacked any real drama.

Now, before anyone thinks that Gary Stevens opened the rail with the formerly undefeated Bayern, he did his best to slow his speedy mount down throughout, keeping him about three paths wide all the way.

Racing wide of the fence helps runners to relax.

Bayern, meanwhile, was a sort of Samraat of the Arkansas Derby. Approaching midstretch it appeared he would finish out of the money but Stevens kept him alive and just missed the place spot to the late surging, six-wide rallying Ride On Curlin.

Ride On Curlin, getting a switch to Jon Court, is a good, very honest colt. Rating experiments generally don’t turn out well but this one did. He likely would have been significantly closer if not for the ground loss.

Coming off two big efforts, Tapiture was flat, failing to give Steve Asmussen his fourth winner of the day—all were ridden by Ricardo Santana, who lost the mount on Tapiture in favor of Joel Rosario. Sometimes the obvious move doesn’t turn out so well.

The Derby qualifying list is very interesting at the bottom with Cairo Prince and Uncle Sigh tied for 20th.

Should no one emerge from the last ditch Lexington next Saturday, it will be interesting to see how that scenario will shake out. Of course, three weeks is an eternity in Kentucky Derby time.

In just a few hours you toss Coastline, who was your selection and who was boxed in exactas with four other horses. Now I imagine that Dance With Fate and Danza will be in the HRI Power Ten.

Let’s face it, no one has a clue who will win the Kentucky Derby - just bet and pray, after all its your money.

BTW, those exacta boxes with Coastline. You know that only one of the eight combinations could win, that seven were losing tickets from the get go. In reality, isn’t the money wagered on the seven losing tickets another form of takeout?

Also, the person with the Algorithm; it seems to still be firing blanks day after day. I think you should tweak it yet again.

My ratings are not for illiterate losers, morons or malcontents. If a person happens to be all 3, hanging out in a sleazy OTB, you are really in trouble. As I’ve said before, “Losers always complain, it is a cross men of talent must bear.”

You better go back and read #1 JP, before infering or worse that #2 made a personal attack. Will not stand by and allow this kind of statments to be made. That was the personal attack. If you were referring to me having hostility, you couldn’t be more off the mark. Simply calling a spade a spade. And as far as having a bad day yesterday nothing could be further from the truth. This ugliness seems to rear its ugly head whenever I’ve posted a couple of huge winners and straight isolated exactas on my website. Detest this kind of thing, so have a good day gentlemen and others (you know who you are).

Sometimes, apparently, not even the written word will suffice. My #4 comment was addressed to #1 and his gratuitous “algorithms” slam. No one is expected to “stand by” and take abuse.

The reference to “gentlemen” refers to both of you since you’ve had a history of this kind of back and forth.

I suggest we keep our comments on topic which in this case was a quick wrap of the Blue Grass and Arkansas Derby and how it possibly had an effect on Derby eligibility.

If we can’t stay on topic for the balance of this thread, I’m afraid all comments will be deleted. I have an obligation to all readers and I’m quite sure this harangue gets old quickly. I hope in the future disagreements will be made with intellectual good nature.

John
I too overlooked Todd’s “other” horse..
It wasn’t 40-1 but remember last year at Saratoga when CAPO BASTONE won a grade 1 at close to 30-1?
I know Ted does.
Tom also polnted out recently he won on a Wolfson “other” at big odds.

There will be 25-1 or higher on some of Todd’s Derby starters (other than Constitution).
Some of the Bafferts will be that high, too. Midnight Hawk could be 50-1 or more. The only thing that might prevent this is the names Pletcher and Baffert on the program.
So you’re warned. If one of these get home (if California Chrome doesn’t win, any of a dozen could), don’t moan on Sunday morning, “How did I let this happen?”
The way I see it,the only Derby starters in single digits will be California Chrome, Constitution and maybe Hoppertunity.
Remember it’s a 20-horse field.

On brighter news, my west coast bias helped me pick the winner in the Blue Grass at a nice price.

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