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Next Mideast Flashpoint: Saudis Enter Bahrain

The BBC’s Arabic service has posted the above amateur video, showing Saudi Arabian armored personnel carriers rushing into the tiny Gulf kingdom of Bahrain. This probably wasn’t what Defense Secretary Robert Gates had in mind when he counseled to Bahrain’s royal family to accommodate its dissidents.

It’s a move that undercuts the Obama administration’s rosy portrayal of the monarchy. Despite a paroxysm of violence in February when security forces attacked protesters in the capitol city of Manama, “today, the Pearl Roundabout in Bahrain is a place of nonviolent activism,” Adm. Mike Mullen, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, assured reporters on March 1. After a visit last week to Bahrain, home to the U.S. Navy’s Fifth Fleet, Gates said he was convinced the royals “are serious about real reform.”

If so, that lasted until about when Gates’ plane went wheels-up. Security forces are now trying to clear Manama’s financial district of protesters, firing tear gas canisters into demonstrators’ chests. About 1000 Saudi troops entered Bahrain on Monday, ostensibly to protect government installations, but protesters at the Pearl Roundabout set up barricades in preparation for the Saudis attacking them. The leading Shia opposition party, Wefaq, called it a “declaration of war and an occupation.”

The fear from the government and the GCC is that the Bahraini uprising, heavily Shia, represents an Iranian beachhead into the Gulf countries. Gates tried to tamp that down, telling the royal family that there was “no evidence” Iran “started any of these popular revolutions or demonstrations across the region.”

Gates wasn’t the only one trying to calm the royal nerves. On Sunday, when violence re-escalated in Bahrain, White House spokesman Jay Carney issued a statement urging “a peaceful and meaningful dialogue with the opposition rather than resorting to the use of force.” He added, “we urge our GCC partners to show restraint and respect the rights of the people of Bahrain, and to act in a way that supports dialogue instead of undermining it.”

Not much of that call has been heeded. Not only that, the timing of Gates’ trip is sure to spark suspicion in Manama that the U.S. approved of the violence and the invasion. Discussing the security of the Fifth Fleet’s stationing in Bahrain, Gates remarked, “I don’t see any evidence on the part of any of the players here that the developments would impact the U.S. presence.” In Manama, that may sound like a quid pro quo.