It’s that time of year again to start talking about the upcoming Atlantic hurricane season. 2013 continues the streak of years since 2011 that have exhibited somewhat mixed pre-season signals, with lesser degrees of confidence in the potency of the hurricane season. However, I believe the evolution of some early warning signs during the last several weeks have pushed 2013 farther into the realm of certainty, at least with regards to its overall level of activity. Specifically, 2013 is likely to be an above-average hurricane season.

As usual, we will begin with the current sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly map of the globe, which is always the best place to start, as great deal of information can be extracted from it.