Notes. Abbreviations for Tables 2.6 are as for Tables 2.1 and 2.2. Mongolia is conveniently included with East Asia (Table 2.6).

Table 2.8 Excess mortality and under-5 infant mortality in Arab North Africa and Middle East

COUNTRY

EM

(m)

IM

(m)

POP

(m)

MORT

(m)

EM/

POP

(%)

EM/

MORT

(%)

IM/

POP

(%)

IM/

MORT

(%)

LE

(yr)

PCI

($)

LIT

(%)

Algeria

7.167

5.812

32.877

11.302

21.8

63.4

17.7

51.4

70

1,890

67

Bahrain

0.054

0.033

0.754

0.111

7.2

48.6

4.4

29.7

74

~10,.840

88

Egypt

19.818

14.143

74.878

29.533

26.5

67.1

18.9

47.9

69

1,.390

55

Iraq

5.283

3.446

26.555

8.288

19.9

63.7

13.0

41.5

61

~2,170

39

Jordan

0.630

0.331

5.750

1.166

11.0

54.0

5.8

28.4

71

1,.850

90

Kuwait

0.089

0.076

2.671

0.215

3.3

41.4

2.8

35.3

77

~16,.340

82

Lebanon

0.535

0.236

3.761

1.285

14.2

41.6

6.3

18.4

74

4,040

86

Libya

0.785

0.626

5.768

1.478

13.6

53.1

10.9

42.4

73

~5,540

80

Morocco

8.202

5.098

31.564

12.401

26.0

66.1

16.2

41.1

69

1,320

49

Occupied Palestinian

Territories

0.677

0.295

3.815

1.061

17.7

63.8

7.7

27.8

73

1,100

~98

Oman

0.359

0.288

3.020

0.589

11.9

61.0

9.5

48.9

73

~7,830

72

Qatar

0.029

0.013

0.628

0.080

4.6

36.3

2.1

16.3

72

~12,000

94

Saudi Arabia

2.752

2.085

25.626

4.974

10.7

55.3

8.1

41.9

72

~8,530

76

Sudan

13.471

6.225

35.040

17.754

38.4

75.9

17.8

35.1

56

460

58

Syria

2.198

1.718

18.650

4.202

11.8

52.3

9.2

40.9

72

1,160

74

Tunisia

1.582

1.568

10.042

3.530

15.8

44.8

15.6

44.4

73

2.,240

71

United Arab Emirates

0.087

0.046

3.106

0.233

2.8

37.3

1.5

19.7

75

~18,060

76

Yemen

6.798

5.135

21.480

8.899

31.6

76.4

23.9

57.7

60

520

46

TOTAL

70.516

47.174

305.985

107.101

23.0

65.8

15.4

44.0

Notes. Abbreviations are as for Tables 2.1 and 2.2. Notwithstanding a substantial Arab population and a substantial Jewish population deriving from Arab countries, Israel has been conveniently included with “Overseas” Europe in Table 2.2.

Table 2.9 Excess mortality and under-5 infant mortality in South East Asia

Notes. Abbreviations are as for Tables 2.1 and 2.2. Not included are Diego Garcia (largely depopulated by the UK and US for global warfare reasons) and the Seychelles.

2.9 Summary

Excess mortality (avoidable mortality) for a given country for a given period is the difference between the ACTUAL mortality and the deaths EXPECTED for a decently run, peaceful country with the same demographics. Using United Nations Population Division demographic data going back to 1950 (the 2002 Revision), it was possible to make base-line estimates of expected mortality for various demographically distinct groups. For many Third World countries the base-line mortality estimates clustered about 4 deaths per 1,000 of population. Excess mortality was calculated for all countries in the world in pentades (5 year periods) from 1950-2005 (actually from mid-1950-mid-2005) and the results were tabulated in various regional groupings together with corroborative and independent estimatesof under-5 infant mortality and life expectancy, annual per capita income and adult literacy data. A useful comparative measure of excess mortality is obtained from the “post-1950 excess mortality/2000 population ratio” which averages as follows in increasing order for the major groupings: 2.7% (Overseas Europe) < 5.0% (Western Europe) < 7.5% (Eastern Europe) < 9.4% (Latin America and Caribbean) < 10.9% (East Asia) < 20.7% (Turkey, Iran and Central Asia) < 23.0 (Arab Middle East and North Africa) < 25.1 (South East Asia) < 27.3% (the Pacific) < 31.9% (South Asia) < 43.2% (non-Arab Africa). Post-1950 excess mortality increases with decreasing annual per capita income but excellent outcomes have been achieved in countries with relatively low per capita incomes of about $1,000-$2,000 (as compared to $38,000 for the US), namely Cuba, Fiji, the Maldives, Paraguay and Sri Lanka. Low excess mortality is associated with high adult literacy but very high post-1950 excess mortality can still occur in countries with adult literacy in excess of 80% e.g. Congo (Brazzaville), Lesotho, Namibia, South Africa, Swaziland and Zimbabwe. The post-1950 excess mortality correlates with war, occupation by First World countries and consequent increased disregard for the occupied by their rulers. The impact of foreign occupation is explored in subsequent Chapters.