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Testing our rankings

I've mentioned on several occassions that we could be more precise in ranking our prospects. However it seems most people are satisfied with the way we rate our prospects. Don't get me wrong I think even if we did manage to take some of our own personal bias out of the equation it wouldn't change things much. But I don't think it would hurt to try to a smidge more bias out of it so here goes.

I recently decided to try this out on myself 1st to see if it changed my rankings of any players. Prior to this I ranked my top 10 prospects off the top of my head, here is that list.

Alonso
Frazier
Heisey
Leake
Soto
Yorman
Wood
Cozart
Valaika
Francisco

I then took those 10 names and ranked each name (bye initials BTW) from 1-10 in 5 different categories that I think generally composes a prospects value. Needless to say I ended up with a different order so I succeeded in taking some of my own bias out of the equation. These categories are as follows.

Ceiling - How valuable the player would be if he reached his ultimate ceiling.

Floor - How valuable he would be if he only reached his floor.

Proximity - How close to the majors is he. I did this in approximate seasons based on their current level and most likely ETA given their current circumstances. For example Matt Maloney might be given a 1 in the next tier because he's in essence already in the bigs, whereas Juan Duran may get the 10th ranking in that group due to age, level and likelihood of progression.

Production - Pretty self explanatory who outperformed who in order over the span of their minor league career thus far.

Position - I think we all have an idea on what we think is the most valuable positions in order of value. I would presume everyones idea is the same but I rank them like so...

LHSP
RHSP
SS
C
CF
3B
RF
2B
1B
LF
LHRP
RHRP
DH

I may be wrong but this is how I view it, in order of toughest to find (which ultimately determines value). Use your own subjectivity on this but if it's different please show why you feel that way if you feel the need. But more importantly than this is where do you realistically see this prospect ending up playing their career. It's important to note that this is strictly from a defensive standpoint, Danny Dorn might have enough bat to play LF or 1st base but if you believe he can only play LF in the majors defensively you should rate him as such.

Now we have finished our RZ top 5 so I thought we might try this exercise after every 5 (or 10 if you prefer) prospects to see how if at all our rankings change. I will do it 1st in my next post and I would ask as many to participate as possible as to help make this a truer ranking. In the end after we reach our next 5 prospects I'll tally the numbers and show the rankings.

Last edited by Mario-Rijo; 11-04-2009 at 05:21 AM.

"You can't let praise or criticism get to you. It's a weakness to get caught up in either one."

Re: Testing our rankings

So this is ou5 current top 5 prospects. Which BTW I don't expect to change much if at all early on in this scenario top 5 is a fairly unanimous bunch. It gets a little more interesting as we go.

RZ top 5
1 - Alonso
2 - Leake
3 - Frazier
4 - Francisco
5 - Yorman

Ceiling
1 - Yorman
2 - Alonso
3 - Francisco
4 - Leake
5 - Frazier

Floor
1 - Alonso
2 - Leake
3 - Frazier
4 - Soto
5 - Francisco

Proximity
1 - Frazier
2 - Alonso
3 - Francisco
4 - Leake
5 - Yorman

(I should have added this is closest to staying in the majors full time from a fully developed standpoint and not when the Reds will actually get them here. I.E. when will they be ready to stay in the majors)

Position
1 - Leake
2 - Yorman
3 - Frazier
4 - Alonso
5 - Francisco

Production
1 - Frazier
2 - Francisco
3 - Alonso
4 - Yorman
5 - Leake

"You can't let praise or criticism get to you. It's a weakness to get caught up in either one."

Re: Testing our rankings

Interesting idea, just some of my thoughts.

If Soto reaches his ceiling I think he is either 1 or 1a with Yorman being the other uber talented player in the system. I would rank Francisco 3rd.

With any pitcher I think think the reality of the floor is that they would be out of the game. Too many times pitchers flame out early due to injuries. There for a player like Leake's floor wouldn't make him valuable in my eyes. Here is how I would rank it.

Ceiling
1 - Yorman
2 - Soto
3 - Francisco
4 - Leake
5 - Alonso

Yorman, Soto, and Francisco all have obvious flaws, but they have high potential if they reach their ceiling. I still think Alonso was drafted because he has a high floor.

Floor
1 - Alonso
2 - Frazier
3 - Francisco
4 - Leake
5 - Soto

Leake could be used as a reliever. I think the flame out rate on Yorman is still pretty high. Francisco has already made his big league debut and I think the Reds organization believes in him. Soto still has a way to go.

Proximity
1 - Frazier
2 - Francisco
3 - Alonso
4 - Leake
5 - Soto

Francisco has been her but that is probably because of his contract situation. Frazier is the closest to a finished product. Alonso and Leake are in the same area, maybe one more year in the minors.

Position
1 - Leake
2 - Yorman
3 - Frazier
4 - Francisco
5 - Alonso

Dominant CF vs. 2nd or 3rd starter? Toss up if you ask me. Frazier has the ability to play multiple positions. If he has a MLB bat then his ability to play multiple positions is a plus. Alonso is a 1b and on the sliding scale I think a LF should be able to play 1b so I rated Francisco higher than Alonso.

Production
1 - Frazier
2 - Francisco
3 - Yorman
4 - Alonso
5 - Leake

Frazier hasn't disappointed offensively. Francisco has all world abilty. Yorman has shown why he is a million dollar signing bonus guy. Alonso has been ok, nothing to make you say wow and Leake hasn't done anything.

Biased, Unbiased rankings. I used the point values, but if someone wasn't listed I gave them 5.

Re: Testing our rankings

If Soto reaches his ceiling I think he is either 1 or 1a with Yorman being the other uber talented player in the system. I would rank Francisco 3rd.

With any pitcher I think think the reality of the floor is that they would be out of the game. Too many times pitchers flame out early due to injuries. There for a player like Leake's floor wouldn't make him valuable in my eyes. Here is how I would rank it.

Ceiling
1 - Yorman
2 - Soto
3 - Francisco
4 - Leake
5 - Alonso

Yorman, Soto, and Francisco all have obvious flaws, but they have high potential if they reach their ceiling. I still think Alonso was drafted because he has a high floor.

Floor
1 - Alonso
2 - Frazier
3 - Francisco
4 - Leake
5 - Soto

Leake could be used as a reliever. I think the flame out rate on Yorman is still pretty high. Francisco has already made his big league debut and I think the Reds organization believes in him. Soto still has a way to go.

Proximity
1 - Frazier
2 - Francisco
3 - Alonso
4 - Leake
5 - Soto

Francisco has been her but that is probably because of his contract situation. Frazier is the closest to a finished product. Alonso and Leake are in the same area, maybe one more year in the minors.

Position
1 - Leake
2 - Yorman
3 - Frazier
4 - Francisco
5 - Alonso

Dominant CF vs. 2nd or 3rd starter? Toss up if you ask me. Frazier has the ability to play multiple positions. If he has a MLB bat then his ability to play multiple positions is a plus. Alonso is a 1b and on the sliding scale I think a LF should be able to play 1b so I rated Francisco higher than Alonso.

Production
1 - Frazier
2 - Francisco
3 - Yorman
4 - Alonso
5 - Leake

Frazier hasn't disappointed offensively. Francisco has all world abilty. Yorman has shown why he is a million dollar signing bonus guy. Alonso has been ok, nothing to make you say wow and Leake hasn't done anything.

Biased, Unbiased rankings. I used the point values, but if someone wasn't listed I gave them 5.

Just curious does that ranking 1-5 match your 1-5 ranking off the top of your head? I did the top 10 and it lowered Alonso & Soto a few spots raised Wood and Francisco up a few spots and Valaika and Cozart settled in both lower.

I think as you chronicled throughout there still is alot of subjectivity in doing this exercise but it is easier to track and easier to manage. And we wouldn't want to exclude subjectivity alltogether obviously as it's our opinion. I think what this does is not overvalue a specific area over another thus giving us a truer rank. Maybe some would prefer to value ceiling more over say production and that's fine (and in fact doable just double or even triple your points in any particular category) but I think some might feel different and would prefer to give all areas equal footing. I think if we done this for the top 40 prospects it would radically change some guys later in the process for everyone.

As for your feelings on pitchers and their floors I would suggest that a players floor in my mind can include not playing major league ball at all whether they are pitchers or not (Francisco in my mind). It may be possible to add yet another category to Ceiling and Floor, say most likely level of player which is somewhere in between.

Thanks for taking part BF.

Last edited by Mario-Rijo; 11-04-2009 at 02:40 PM.

"You can't let praise or criticism get to you. It's a weakness to get caught up in either one."

Re: Testing our rankings

Originally Posted by Mario-Rijo

Just curious does that ranking 1-5 match your 1-5 ranking off the top of your head? I did the top 10 and it lowered Alonso & Soto a few spots raised Wood and Francisco up a few spots and Valaika and Cozart settled in both lower.

I think as you chronicled throughout there still is alot of subjectivity in doing this exercise but it is easier to track and easier to manage. And we wouldn't want to exclude subjectivity alltogether obviously as it's our opinion. I think what this does is not overvalue a specific area over another thus giving us a truer rank. Maybe some would prefer to value ceiling more over say production and that's fine (and in fact doable just double or even triple your points in any particular category) but I think some might feel different and would prefer to give all areas equal footing. I think if we done this for the top 40 prospects it would radically change some guys later in the process for everyone.

As for your feelings on pitchers and their floors I would suggest that a players floor in my mind can include not playing major league ball at all whether they are pitchers or not (Francisco in my mind). It may be possible to add yet another category to Ceiling and Floor, say most likely level of player which is somewhere in between.

Thanks for taking part BF.

If I did the top 10, which I may go through and do, it may or may not change up the rankings. I think there still is a great deal of subjectivity as well as perception going on in these rankings. I think it is fairly easy to conclude that Joey Votto was the most valuable red this past season, but if you put him in some of these rankings he would be knocked a little because he plays 1b (but the ability to play LF) and also because he isn't perceived to have 40 hr power (lowering his ceiling). But at the same time I think it does a good job of giving credence to players who are close to cracking the big leagues. Unfortunately what is often forgotten with prospects is the high attrition rate amongst minor league players.

Here is what I learned from this exercise. Todd Frazier, if he has a major league bat, is a very valuable player. If he can play LF, RF, 2b, 3b, and 1b he may find himself at a different position every day, but his bat will be in the lineup every day.

I think Yorman may be the most important player in the Reds organization. His ceiling hasn't changed, but with him already making it to Billings his floor is starting to look better.

Leake may be a tad over rated as of right now based upon his draft slot as well as his position. It it truly what happens to prospects in rankings and it is something you should be cautious about.

I will contend that Alonso is one of the top 2 Reds prospects but I think this ranking falls in line with my thoughts on him. Nice player, not a wow player, right now he is blocked by the Reds best player. His progression through the minors hasn't done anything to spur on talk about him being a great one. In reality I think draft slot and hype is why Alonso is the top ranked prospect in the Reds organization. Unfortunately I think there are too many questions about Alonso that he needs to answer come Feb and March of next season.

Maybe when the top 10, 20, or 40 are done we should do this again and see where we rank the players. I think 20 may be a good number because I just won't know enough about prospects 20-40 to make a sound judgment.

Leake's floor is as a year or two stop-gap fifth starter and Frazier beats him on his bat and leather utility. Alonso as post-power Casey is my biggest fear for Cincinnati's minor league system. Francisco is basically what he is now, with both Soto and Yorman minor league washouts.

Proximity
1. Francsico-- Already played in majors. One Rolen injury from starting.
2. Frazier-- If Francisco can't play at the hot corner, Frazier can. But he's blocked at second, third, and LF.
3. Leake-- Leake pitching better in the AFL than Alonso is hitting it.
4. Alonso-- AA is a long way from the majors, especially with Votto at first.
5. Soto-- Well below others, like those above and Dorn, Heisey.
6. Rodriguez-- So far away, he might as well be in another country. Or Montana.

Production
1. Frazier-- All he's done is hit.
2. Francisco-- His power trumps Alonso's BA, OBP.
3. Alonso-- He's not been bad. But not great, either.
4. Soto-- Had a truly dominant year in 08, then a really bad one in 09.
5. Yorman-- Decent. And 16 (!)
6. Leake-- The AFL and that's it.

Re: Testing our rankings

I apologize guys I didn't notice right away but I managed to include Soto in mine and then you guys followed suit but I didn't mean to add him to this equation part of the test, in fact when I put his name down I actually meant to put Yormans name.

"You can't let praise or criticism get to you. It's a weakness to get caught up in either one."

Re: Testing our rankings

Everyone is forgetting Heisey. IMO he is number one or two on both the floor and Production lists and is also in the top 5 for position and proximity while many of these guys don't even make some of the lists.

Re: Testing our rankings

Originally Posted by mth123

Everyone is forgetting Heisey. IMO he is number one or two on both the floor and Production lists and is also in the top 5 for position and proximity while many of these guys don't even make some of the lists.

Floor
I want to start this by saying that a players floor is what they are right now with absolutely no improvements what so ever. That makes it a pretty easy list for me.
Yonder Alonso
Todd Frazier
Zack Cozart
Chris Heisey
Danny Dorn (400 at bats against righties would put a team in a good spot)
Matt Klinker
Matt Maloney
Brad Boxberger (could probably relieve right now if he had to)
Mike Leake (could probably also relieve right now if he had to)
Miguel Rojas (defensive replacement at the very least)
Chris Valaika
Juan Francisco (power bat off the bench at the very least)

Proximity
I am only going to count legit prospects and talking strictly on who could reach the majors first if there was a spot open.... I won't penalize a guy because he is blocked.
Yonder Alonso
Todd Frazier
Matt Maloney
Chris Heisey
Danny Dorn
Zack Cozart
Logan Ondrusek
Enerio Del Rosario
Travis Wood
Sam Lecure

Production
I look at production a bit different because the only production I look at is defense, walk rate, strikeout rate and power.... because those are the only things that are likely to be going forward with you.

Position
My list goes like this: Catcher, Shortstop, Center Field, Second Base, Starting Pitcher (don't give two craps what arm they throw with.... just get guys out), Third Base, Right Field, Left Field, First Base, Reliever.

I can't really make a list based on this using everyone because basically all that does is make a big depth chart.

Re: Testing our rankings

I went through and did the RZ top 10 prospects. I added in Soto and Valakia as 9 and 10 because you could make an argument that they fit there, but also I knew more about them than the rest. I included the RZ rankings in the evaluations as well as assigning a point value into the level each player was in AAA 1, AA 2, A+ 3, A- 4, Rookie 5. Granted this is almost done by proximity but it gives the players ready to contribute a little extra weight. Here is how it went.

Some thoughts on this. I think what this list shows is the Reds have a lot of nice players, just no stars with the exception of Rodriguez. Frazier gets a lot for credit for being a refined prospect, but he doesn't have a true position, yet. His value may be enhanced by the ability to play all over the diamond. I think Francisco is a little over valued, but if he learns plate discipline he could be a monster. I think 1b is a little devalued, but then again I don't see Alonso being a Pujols or Texiera type. If he isn't that type of player how does he push Votto off 1b? How do you push a better player off his position? I think we all forget how Soto went gangbusters in his first true season. Wood looks about right in the rankings, a lefty who had a dominant season last year and looks primed to make his MLB debut in 2010. While Valakia looks like he will be a utility player, those types of players are valuable in the national league.

Re: Testing our rankings

Doug, I'm curious about your proximity rankings. Maloney is clearly a back of the rotation starter right now. He's functionally not even a prospect anymore -- just a mediocre finished product looking for an opportunity. Do you think Alonso and Frazier are more ML ready than that or do you think I'm overstating his readiness?

Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

Re: Testing our rankings

Originally Posted by RedsManRick

Doug, I'm curious about your proximity rankings. Maloney is clearly a back of the rotation starter right now. He's functionally not even a prospect anymore -- just a mediocre finished product looking for an opportunity. Do you think Alonso and Frazier are more ML ready than that or do you think I'm overstating his readiness?

I think that Frazier/Alonso can be more valuable than a #5 starter in the major leagues today. Alonso, I feel could be a league average, perhaps slightly below first baseman in the majors right now. Frazier, if put at 3B/LF I feel would be at the very least league average right now. I do think that Maloney can be a #5 today. I just think that Alonso and Frazier are more ready than that.

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