Britain

What Britain forgets

Romania is booming

ON January 1st 2014 Britain will be engulfed (or possibly "inundated", "flooded" or "swamped") by Romanian and Bulgarian immigrants. That, at least, is the claim now being made almost daily by Britain's tabloid newspapers, which appear to be in paroxysms of panic about the approaching expiry of transitional controls on nationals of those two EU member states. Many fewer Romanians and Bulgarians will come to the UK than the press implies (not hard: some reports cite the 29m-strong combined population of those two countries as if it were an estimate of arrival numbers). Still, David Cameron has made a series of media interventions over the past few weeks designed to assure Britons that he is as petrified as they are. Theresa May, the home secretary, has been even tougher in her comments.

Quite aside from the benefits of EU immigration (covered in The Economist last week), part of the story is almost entirely absent from the media coverage: Romania's accelerating economy. Earlier this year, for example, the Mailsent a reporter to speak to some Romanians in their “tiny clay hut”. The finished story, under the headline “by January, the only thing left will be the goat,” gives some indication of how Romania is portrayed in the tabloids. Yet the country is wealthier, more dynamic and more sophisticated than such stories suggest. Unemployment there is relatively low (and lower than in Britain). Its budget deficit puts Britain to shame. The government is in the midst of liberalising the economy, opening up new sectors (most notably, energy and telecoms) to competition and investment. Economic growth is at 4.1%. Wages are rising fast. Adjusting for prices, Bucharest’s GDP per capita is above the EU average. Indeed, the average Bucharest resident is comfortably better off than the average resident of Manchester.

This forgotten story is an important antidote to Britain's panic. First, it shows the press is overstating the “push factors” encouraging Romanians to leave for Britain. Second, and most importantly, it shows that the benefits of Romania's EU membership are mutual: British individuals and companies can benefit from travelling in an opposite direction to the "wave" of migrants expected on January 1st.

A feature in Ziarul Financiar (a respected Bucharest business daily) today makes that point well. This argues that although “Britons do not want Romanians,” they are keen on Romanian consumers. Between 2010 and 2013 British firms did an average €6.3 billion of business annually there, double the level of 2007, when it joined the EU. Since its accession, Romania—considered one of Europe’s few “tiger” economies—has been worth some €27-30 billion in turnover and €3.7 billion in profit to companies based in Britain. Several have even received multi-million-euro subsidies from the Romanian state (worth remembering when politicians bang on about Romanians costing British taxpayers money). And the true benefit may be even greater, as these numbers ignore British companies active in Romania but listed elsewhere—like Vodafone, which (for the purposes of Romania’s trade statistics) counts as Dutch.

The article also notes that London, as Europe’s leading financial centre, has benefited from Romania's economic emergence. Two of its major companies—A&D Pharma and ROMGAZ—have listed in Britain’s capital in recent years, generating millions in fees for the London-based banks, lawyers and consultants that they hired.

This highlights another riposte to the tabloids and government ministers. Not only do migrants work hard and boost the Britain’s economy. Not only does Romania’s EU membership give British companies a free run at the country’s economic boom. But Romanians in Britain create links with their home country, linking together the two positive trends. Few Britons speak Romanian (precious few even speak German) and few understand how that country works. That might act as a brake on Britain's economic links with this boom economy, were it not for Romanians in London, Manchester, Birmingham and elsewhere who can open new channels of communication and trade. For Britain, which aspires to export 60% more to Romania by 2017, that can only be a good thing. British politicians who fret about spurious immigration projections while championing their country's place in a "global race" should take note.

Update (December 18th)

From the comments section: another reason why British politicians should stop fear-mongering. Consider that the number of British pupils studying computer science or IT to A-Level has dropped by 35% since 2008—and that Britain has a chronic shortage of IT engineers which (according to one internet entrepreneur) will "shaft" its economy.

I am a 26 year old Romanian IT engineer, who's doing quite decent in Bucharest, Romania. As many other fellow young Romanians, I'm looking to emigrate by the time I reach 30, for a better life and better opportunities. Britain among Spain and Italy are the countries that I will never consider emigrating to, despite the offers and salaries. The general (misguided) opinion about Romanians in these countries makes me sick to my stomach. I would never ever want to live in a country that abuses me because its citizens can't tell the difference between gypsies and Romanians.

So to all the Britons who are afraid that an 'avalanche' of Romanians will immigrate from January, I say, relax. There are tons of people who share the same opinion as me. The number of immigrants will not be that high, so you don't need to worry yourself that much.

I have to congratulate British tabloids and politicians for the great job they are doing discouraging Ukrainians from their European aspirations. They certainly get good coverage in Ukrainian media. For example, Mr Medvedchuk, who is one of the most influential proponent of Ukrainians making a civilization choice in favor of Russia rather than Europe (Putin, Russian's president, is the the godfather of his daughter) just yesterday wrote another article in a popular Ukrainian website arguing that Eastern Europeans (and Ukrainians by implications) are not welcome in Europe. He specifically referred to a recent Cameron's speech that letting Eastern Europeans in was a "monumental mistake", as well as to recent plans (again conceived in Britain) to limit the freedom of movement in the EU.

Good job Mr Cameron. You are certainly making Mr Putin's job quite a bit easier.

I'm a Romanian living in the USA. I'm a Software Engineer, my wife is a Physician, and we are rich people.
Due to all this fuss, paranoia and xenophobia shown by brits we made the following decisions:
* We will not spend our money on any vacation in the UK
* We will not spend our money on any "Made in the UK" products
* We will not travel with British Airways or any airline that has anything to do with UK
Live long and prosperous UK by yourself and may the world never know you even exist!

Labour markets are tight in Romania and that is feeding through to low unemployment and robust wage growth (despite tight monetary policy - the RON has remained steady against the euro and appreciated in trade weighted terms over the past 12 months). Insofar as there is more emigration in January, migration will be mostly to Italy, Spain, Portugal & Germany rather than the UK (larger existing expat communities, language affinities & employment opportunities), and the effect will be to tighten Romanian labour markets further (wage appreciation) and will add to remittance inflows (& demand).

My accountant is from Romania. She studied accountancy at University in Timisoara and was working in a coffee shop when I mentioned I needed a book-keeper. One thing led to another and 6 years on, having paid her night school fees, she is about to qualify as a UK accountant.

She is honest as the day is long and tremendously committed and loyal worker. I attended her wedding 3 years ago in a small village in Romania. I have seen first hand the range of circumstance in small and large towns as well as the countryside in Romania.

my conclusion is that the role of leaders is to lead. Instead of pandering to the worst type of nationalist(borderline racists) David Cameron should be calmly explaining to the UK that all the Romanians who want to come to the UK are already here. Their country is not so dire they would come here to live on benefits. They share the same broad Judeo/Christian European value system as we do and integrate quickly.

We are lucky to have bright, energetic, hardworking Romanians in the UK. They cam here because their system doesn't always allow the cream to rise and there is more nepotism in Romania than in the UK.

I am embarrased by our Prime Minister. He is pandering instead of leading and this reflects poorly on our country. It is a perfect example of our failure to lead in Europe. Having convinced other countries of the need to expand the European Union eastwards we are retreating into a 'Little Englander' Mentality.

We should remember that our birth rate is insufficient to keep up our population and thank God that people want to come and live and work here. They dilute the debt to GDP ratio and bring energy talent and hunger for success with them. what more could we ask for.

Britain's EU policy under David Cameron is a shambles dictated by Conservative party management than the national good. It's not good enough. He needs to tell the country some home truths. we need their talent and we should welcome them not villify them.

I am also in my mid 20s, started a family and get a decent life in Romania. I wouldn't leave this country for nothing. I spent time in almost all capitals around Europe, but Romanian people and this country is more than you can offer, sincerely.
Sure Romania has it's pain points. One is gypsies, who are not educated and can't easily adapt to the society. They came here hundreds of years ago, and now they are leaving.
Tough luck, it's your turn to take care of them. They are nomad people and always have been. They always move around and they are not Romanian people. They have their own identity, independent from this country and its people.
If you are from UK and try to tell me that I'm racist for this belief, look in the history what you've done in Africa or India.

What's in it if i move to Britain? Here i have a better paycheck, lower taxes, fully covered healthcare, access to free schools etc. Sure, they are not perfect. But they aren't perfect in UK either.

I am a 26 year old Romanian IT engineer, who's doing quite decent in Bucharest, Romania. As many other fellow young Romanians, I'm looking to emigrate by the time I reach 30, for a better life and better opportunities. Britain among Spain and Italy are the countries that I will never consider emigrating to, despite the offers and salaries. The general (misguided) opinion about Romanians in these countries makes me sick to my stomach. I would never ever want to live in a country that abuses me because its citizens can't tell the difference between gypsies and Romanians.

So to all the Britons who are afraid that an 'avalanche' of Romanians will immigrate from January, I say, relax. There are tons of people who share the same opinion as me. The number of immigrants will not be that high, so you don't need to worry yourself that much.

Well I beg to disagree with your statement. I would like to raise 5 points.

1. Please refrain from bringing wikipedia entries as proof. They are as much so as a quote on a t-shirt. Come back with actual IMF report or not at all.

2. Considering your numbers, ajust the ratio to local prices and you will only get true figures at that point. Ex. 1 loaf of bread: UK - 1-1.2 GBP (Tesco) , Romania 0.2-0.3 GBP (any shop) - and you have a similar price ratio for almost all products. When taking that into account you will see how your numbers start changing and see that the authors are actually right

3. There are cultural differences. Romanians are no as prone to borrowing for consumer goods as the British are. I lived there for 20 years and worked for 4 years on income ranging from 3000-15000 GBP (15k GBP as purchasing power goes would be equivalent to 45k-50k GBP in the UK) and I have not even had an overdraft on my account or a credit card as it is not in our culture. Due to issues with banks in he '90 and economic crises following '89 protests and the downfall of communism with huge, mostly experimental, reforms people are not trusting of banks and financial institutions in eastern europe.

4. Your figures are way off due to averaging and uniformity. Where you have a country with small fluctuations in income between areas or between urban and rural environments, that is not the case for Romania. In Romania only the urban population actually takes part in economy and market/trade. The vast majority of the rural population lives off the land (most of them quite well) and only micro-trading takes place between farmers in the same village. These people do no care about money or anything else we burden ourselves with, they do not emigrate unless a foreign agency comes to recruit them, and they have almost 0 income according to the IMF. This is not due to poverty, it is by choice which links back to culture. Therefore, creating this average is further from the truth than you can possibly imagine.

5. Do you really think that the argument you give justifies xenophobia, racism and mistreatment based on nationality?

I might not share 100% the views of the author on the booming Romania, but I do agree, Romania will be better off than Britain in the long run. As a Romanian expat living in London I often ponder over the decision of moving here and 99% of the times I realize it might have been a huge mistake. I work like a dog 12-14 hrs a day in the City only to pay to HRMT few grounds a month. And I am one of the hundreds (if not thousands) of Romanian expats working in the City. Yes, we are that many! A simple calculation and you realize who pays for your so called politicians’ salaries and nice trips abroad from all those millions of pounds that go to your Treasury every year. Yes, those creepy Romanians do! I live in a flat for which I pay another few grounds a month in rent (a nice white Victorian house in a posh neighbourhood; sounds fancy but all you get is a 300 year old house with shaky floors, bad pipes and damp walls); it is my choice just as it is the choice of all those thousands of other City workers (and think how many of them are British- not more than 10 pct and that is being generous), but one could argue that we help fuel the image London has and by coming here and paying these huge rates we in fact allow London to portray itself as such a desirable place to be and ensure the British homeowners get good return on their investments (or inheritances). Then the money that go towards paying bills, towards British producers (be it farmers, retailers, internet providers etc.) ; well, that helps your economy be so great and allow your British companies to pay bigger salaries than they will be able to pay in countries like Romania and Bulgaria. And all those benefits that you cousin Jim or auntie Mary gets…who do you think pays for those? Guess again! And I could go on. So, before putting your foot in your mouth maybe you can give it a thought and understand what you are talking about and what you are reading. I myself I can say that all this campaign just makes me want to leave this place. And like me there are many others. I wander where will Britain end up without all these nasty immigrants who came to take British citizens’ jobs? The jobs are there because you do not have well trained people or because you prefer to stay home and get benefits instead of working for the same amount of money. I speak 6 foreign languages and I can understand 3 others. I lived in 3 countries, travelled on all continents and have taken financial responsibility for the family I left behind, and all this before turning 30. And I am one of the thousands I mentioned. How many of you can say the same thing? Yes, just like any other nation on the planet, we have our own outliers but this does not make us all alike. My advice, although unsolicited, before you judge and put a stigma on people maybe you should give Romanians and Romania a chance. We might surprise you and you might even learn a thing or two from us. Ah, and don’t worry, you will always be welcomed to Romania; our parents have thought us to be well mannered, to respect people around us and to try and learn something from their culture. Our houses will always be open to wanderers and guests.

The "goat" article made me quite angry. That one picked the most impoverished gipsy family they could find and portrayed them as the default Romanian "invader".

Like Alin, I'm a 26-year old Romanian IT engineer. Unlike him, however, I studied and worked in Britain for a year before deciding to come back home, for better opportunities and better (relatively speaking) income.

I honestly think that the benefit system is badly designed, if it allows people that beg and steal in my country to go beg and steal and BE PAID FOR IT in some other country, whatever that may be. The length of extremism and bigotry against whole nations is beyond me, however, and I think it only manages to show how gullible and narrow minded people can get, even in the lofty "Western" civilization.

So no, UK won't be seeing an infinite number of immigrants starting January. A few more beggars and thieves, perchance (but you have your fill of those already, London is so very much more dangerous than Bucharest). Just my 2 pennies.

I am an ex-Romanian expat in the UK, lived in London for about 4 years, had a great City job and I am really greatful for a wonderful professional experience. However, living in London with a wife and a three year old son exposed me a bit to the the so much praised UK social services. Guys, what are we talking about here? NHS? Really? Without private insurance (which I was so lucky to have), all you get is Paracetamol treatment and medical assistance from a newly qualified nurse. What happens these days with the tabloid press is driven by politicians who are capitalizing on briton's increased frustrations due to their own economic and lifestyle decline (which, cyclically, brings the discussion back to the same politicians). Romanians and Bulgarians taking advantage of the system? What about Caribbeans (for instance) living in 5 star compounds in London, with heavily subsidised rent (courtesy to the Council), unemployed, but still driving X5 beamers or Porsche Cayenne? Isn't this reality closer to your day to day life brother brit, than the chimeric threat of millions of wild eastern-europeans taking advantage of your great social services?
I do encourage Romanians to go to the UK to get a great education, to get maybe the best paid professional jobs in the EU (at least in the financial sector) and if you decide to stay there, trust me, it won't be because of the great social services in this country.

First of all I'd like to thank the author and the Economist for one of the few positive articles for Romanians on the matter. Having said that, I would have to mention that I am quite surprised to see another article like this. When I saw one being written by your publication I expected an article more to do more with business and the middle class.

The reason I made the statement above is that I, as a Romanian national, came to the UK in 2008 as a student and I find this whole "scandal" as being not only a waste of time for everyone involved but also that everyone is making way too much fuss for an irrelevant subject. I have met countless British businessmen who employ Romanians and have nothing but the utmost respect for their new found labour force and I have met Romanian businessmen in the UK who are not only job creators but well respected members of their community as well. Shouldn't these people have a chance to have their voice heard? Or is it not as interesting as the unskilled worker with a grudge?

Honestly, since I arrived in the UK 5 years ago, I did have a tendency to collaborate with and be surrounded by middle-class people and businessmen and I did not face any issues regarding my nationality or place of birth. I have always been evaluated and considered for my personal and professional abilities and qualities. In fact, on countless occasions, any mistakes I had made were only viewed as being part of my learning process to get past the language and cultural barrier and I have not been held accountable for minor discretions in all this time; these mistakes were rather taken with kindness and amusement on both sides. This is, in my opinion, a true testament to Britain's extraordinary capacity to deal with multiculturalism when keeping an open mind.

Do not get me wrong. No Romanian is coming to this country thinking he is or will become one of you in the eyes of your Government. We are all proud of our heritage and would not give it up for the world. The only thing we do ask is to be treated with respect, decency and not like a second class citizen. Show that, keep an open mind and know that you are making contact with a whole new culture and you will see how easy it is to win our hearts, our loyalty and our friendship.

I do understand why some British people might have certain feelings against us. The world is still pretty shook up by the economic issues we have been dealing with recently and the UK had some unpleasant experiences with immigration in the past. I do understand their desire of being cautious and their hesitance towards Romanians, but they should still remember that generalization is dangerous. Were all football fans a danger to society a few years back? Were all the ones with shaved heads part of the "skinheads"? Were all Germans Nazis? Are all Americans fat? Of course not. Which is why I would suggest for both sides to get to know each other on a personal level, through open-mindedness rather than statistics, before judging.

I lived in Romania off and on for a total of 4 years between 2002 and 2010, recently returned there for almost a month during the summer and am currently living in a neighboring country (Bulgaria.) The idea that Romania is a "tiger economy" is completely and utterly false and is being advanced for transparently reactionary political purposes -- in this case, to make it look to an ever-more skeptical European population that capitalism is "coming back" and is the only viable economic system.
Romania is, certainly by European standards, a very poor country; in fact, the most recent statistics show that per capita income there, adjusted for the cost of living, puts Romania in 28th place out of 28 EU countries (Bulgaria is in 27th place.) The government is ultra-reactionary (The Prime Minister is a right-wing "Social Democrat" while the President -- who is intensely hated in the country -- is openly right-wing) and is pursuing all manner of "neoliberal" economic "restructuring" measures, including, prominently, privatization of the health care system.
Romania's current average after-tax wage is the equivalent of 360 euros a month, but given the tremendous inequality that prevails there, many people (most workers) receive less and some A LOT less. The official unemployment statistics absurdly understate the real degree of joblessness and Romania's population has declined by around 15% in the last 24 years (since the fall of Stalinism in late 1989) as people keep on leaving the country and the birth rate is below the death rate there.
In short, this article isn't worth the paper it's (not ?) printed on.
All that having been said, I am categorically opposed to the attempt of the vile reactionary David Cameron to try to scapegoat Eastern European workers for the austerity measures that his regime has imposed on the UK's working class for the last 3.5 years.
In simple terms, ALL workers, regardless of their country of origin or religion, skin color, etc, etc, etc must have the right to live and work wherever they so choose.

I'm a 24 year old software developer in Cluj-Napoca (Romania's 3rd largest city), and comparing my city with London, I can see that I have much better living conditions here, than I would in London. Sorry guys, you don't have to worry. We won't come over, but you definitely should :)

Hundreds of gypsies drug their own babies to use them as begging tools (like dogs - cute wins cash). While living in Romania, I saw this in practice often during the summer.

Hundreds more intentionally allow open wounds to become gruesomely infected (despite easy availability of free healthcare in Romania) - merely to use those wounds as a sympathy ploy and for begging.

Worst, these choices are not individual choices. Rather, elder men impose patriarchical control over other gypsies and force them to go to these lengths to beg and bring in cash (and pay royalties to the gypsie kings in their spectacular palaces).http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UYWEZ9gZJqU#t=15s

If Romanians are prejudiced against the gypsy communities, it is because those communities behave cohesively as organized crime syndicates (begging, stealing, mutilating one another, abusing children, peddling drugs and taking the roofs off public buildings for scrap metal...), for the suffering of most gypsies but to turn senior gypsies into millionaires.

The Romanian people are excellent, generous, intelligent, hard working and welcoming - I was given a great time there. And there certainly isn't much racism in Romania - there are hundreds of Nigerians and Arabs studying medicine in Romanian universities, and they always seem to get the prettiest girls (incidentally, I met about a dozen British medical students hanging out here too - they are studying in Romania and plan to serve the NHS in future). Yet anybody forced to see gypsies every day will curse at them under his/her breath. There's a limit to human tolerance for corruption, manipulation and abuse.

First of all, I would like to salute a rare positive article about Romania in the British press.
Britain used to have a very good reputation in Romania a few years ago. Many of us have grown up reading 'English my love', listening to Queen watching the BBC. As of late though, the British brand has been tarnished badly, in Romania and across Europe. The main culprits are a new class of British politicians that are increasingly conservative and xenophobic.
But there are many Britains. I live in the liberal South-West of London, where the vast majority are educated, well travelled brits that don't read the tabloids and have generally good knowledge of Romania and its people. At work (City of L), I am surrounded by people from all corners of the world. They frown upon generalization and xenophobia that are so common amongst UKIP or Tories politicians.
The landscape is completely different if you move out of London, in particular the very conservative Home Counties of the South-East. And it changes again if you travel to North England or Scotland.
As a Romanian living in Britain, I would encourage my countrymen to stay home. As this article suggests, there are many opportunities in Romania for those that work hard and are well educated. Think 20 years from now. Romania will be fast catching up with the rest of Europe while Britain will stagnate, torn between its forward looking financial services of London and its increasingly conservative and euro-sceptic political class.

I agree with the comment of Alin Ilie. I studied chemical and biochemical engineering in Bucharest, then I emigrated in The Netherlands where I specialized in bio-process design and got my PhD on mathematical modelling of biofilms. I would also never-ever consider a job offer in the UK, Spain or Italy because of the general hateful attitude towards Romanians in these countries. A good friend of mine who activates in the nuclear energy field (with a PhD obtained at France's top institute for atomic energy) is also sharing this attitude and declared in countless occasions that he would never come to work in the UK for the same reason.
My point is, that with their hateful hysteria directed at Romanians, the British people are only filtering away those Romanians that can bring extra-value to their economy and who are professionally strong enough to go and work wherever they choose to. I mean sure, if I would come to UK I am convinced that in the academic environment or in other intellectual circles I would not find this xenophobic attitude but then again, I cannot live only in this bubble, I also need to interact with the administration, shop in the supermarket, my kids will open the tv and newspapers and would start feeling ashamed of me and of their Romanian heritage. So, no thank you dear Britain, I'd rather skip any job offer you might have for me!