Friday, September 26, 2014

Market Watch

This is an interesting point spread. In the Westgate look-ahead line, the Packers were -3 point favorites. Once they lost to Detroit on Sunday, the line re-opened with the Bears as -1 point favorites. Then, after Chicago beat the Jets, Green Bay was once again the favorite at -1.5. The current line has moved to -2, but you can find -1.5 if you have sportsbook options. I think anything under -3 is value though. Right now, 59% of the bets are on the road team.

Bottom Line

With this pick, I'm being somewhat bullish on the Packers, but it's still early in the season and I'm still not ready to bail on them. All week long the talk surrounding the Packers has been about their offense. Aaron Rodgers is telling everyone to relax, and as long as they are healthy, I'm inclined to believe him. They should have every opportunity to get back on track against a Bears defense that is beat up, soft in the middle, and prone to the vertical passing game.

But the bigger reason why I like them in this game is because of the matchup on the other side of the ball. I waited all week to make sure Clay Matthews would be in the lineup, and he is now listed as "probable". The other injury news of note is the questionable status of Brandon Marshall. Without the two big pass catchers healthy on the outside, Cutler might be forced to make more happen, especially if GB's offense begins to click.

What is truly getting lost in this matchup though, is the Packers defense. Very quietly, they've shown signs of improvement on last year. They started off iffy in Week 1, but that was against the best team in the league, in the hardest stadium to play in. Since then they've settled down, and actually held Detroit's offense to 10 points on the road in Week 3. If they put in another solid effort again this week, Rodgers and company should take care of the rest.

One final note: road teams are 28-20-1 ATS this season, so I have no hesitation in adding another to the card this week.