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Stories from SlateGreenpeace Activists Successfully Blockade Shell Icebreaker Bound for the Arctichttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2015/07/30/shell_blockade_greenpeace_activists_stop_an_oil_industry_ship_bound_for.html
<p>Call it <a href="http://www.slate.com/articles/health_and_science/science/2015/05/protest_against_shell_drilling_in_the_arctic_kayaks_and_boats_near_seattle.html">kayaktivism</a>’s biggest victory to date: On Wednesday morning, a group of 13 climbers associated with Greenpeace <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/jul/29/activists-hang-from-bridge-portland-block-shells-arctic-oil-vessel">rappelled</a> from the St. John’s Bridge in Portland, Oregon, <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/jul/29/activists-hang-from-bridge-portland-block-shells-arctic-oil-vessel">intending to block</a> a Shell icebreaker from returning to the Arctic. On Thursday, in hour 29 of the climbers’ protest on the bridge, Shell’s ship, escorted by the U.S. Coast Guard, was forced to return to port.</p>
<p>A Periscope <a href="https://www.periscope.tv/w/aIosMjk2MTY2NDB8NTAxMzQ3OTcUFtApa_Yj7cWqbKAwd-pzhiPtfFH5X9blYLPiCf8tSg==">livestream</a>, shot by activist Kristina Flores, shows the Fennica turning around in the Willamette River on Thursday morning to cheers from the protesters. It’s unclear what Shell’s plans are now for the MSV Fennica—it’s been docked in Portland, undergoing repairs—and a ship-tracking website <a href="http://www.marinetraffic.com/ais/details/ships/shipid:4863/mmsi:230245000/imo:9043615/vessel:FENNICA">showed</a> no pending itinerary. During her broadcast, Flores said, “We have the staying power to be here as long as necessary.”</p>
<p>Flores and her fellow protesters are opposed to the ship’s return to the Arctic, and are attempting to slow Shell’s resumption of oil drilling there, where it has <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2015/01/04/magazine/the-wreck-of-the-kulluk.html">a checkered history</a>. A January <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/future_tense/2015/01/09/new_study_says_we_should_leave_most_remaining_fossil_fuels_in_the_ground.html">study</a> by a team of British scientists showed that continued oil exploration in the Arctic is inconsistent with efforts to limit global warming to <a href="http://www.carbonbrief.org/blog/2014/12/two-degrees-a-selected-history-of-climate-change-speed-limit/">so-called</a> “safe” levels. The campaigners are also frustrated with the Obama administration for <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/business/2015/jul/22/shell-arctic-oil-drilling-obama-interior-department">recently approving</a> Shell’s Arctic oil drilling, which has been <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/business/2015/jul/22/shell-arctic-oil-drilling-obama-interior-department">widely criticized</a> as being inconsistent with his overall plan to limit U.S. carbon emissions. In recent days, Portland has become the focal point of this frustration because of the Fennica, a Finnish-flagged support ship whose presence is required at Shell’s controversial drilling site in the Chukchi Sea in the Alaskan Arctic. The Fennica carries a capping stack, a critical piece of safety equipment designed to prevent oil leaks in case of a well blowout.</p>
<p>On Wednesday, I exchanged tweets with one of the climbers, Dan Cannon, <a href="https://twitter.com/DanEnviroCannon/status/626421101866807296">who wrote of the experience</a>: “This is bigger than Greenpeace and/or the climbers - the movement to protect the Arctic is vast.” In a statement, Dan Ritzman, the director of the Sierra Club’s Arctic campaign said: “These brave activists have done what hundreds of thousands of Americans have called on President Obama to do: Stop Shell from drilling in the Arctic.”</p>
<p>A <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2015/jun/15/seattle-kayak-activists-detained-blocking-shell-arctic-oil-rig">similar action</a> led by activists in brightly colored kayaks last month in Seattle failed after the Coast Guard pulled protesters out of the way. A spokesperson for Shell, Megan Baldino, said in <a href="http://blog.seattlepi.com/seattlepolitics/2015/07/29/protesters-rappel-from-portland-bridge-seeking-to-keep-shell-icebreaker-from-departing/#34622101=0">a statement</a> about this most recent protest, “We respect the rights of individuals and groups to express their opinions:&nbsp; All we ask is that they do so within the confines of the law and maintain safety as their first priority.”</p>
<p>During its quarterly earnings report on Thursday, Shell <a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-07-30/shell-plans-to-cut-6-500-jobs-reduce-investment-by-7-billion">announced</a> it is cutting 6,500 jobs and plans to reduce capital investment by $7 billion amid a sharp drop in profits, which it blamed on multi-year low oil prices it says “could last for several years.” As <strong><em>Slate</em></strong>’s Jordan Weissmann <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/moneybox/2014/12/11/oil_falls_below_60_a_barrel_who_s_in_trouble.html">has pointed out</a>, continued low oil prices particularly affect oil companies’ profitability in the Arctic, the most expensive place to drill for oil.</p>
<p>In <a href="http://www.nh1.com/news/steinhauser-in-one-on-one-intv-with-nh1-news-clinton-disagrees-with-obama-move-on-arctic-drilling/">an interview</a> with a New Hampshire television station on Tuesday, Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton appeared to break with the Obama administration in her first substantive comments on Arctic drilling. “I have doubts about whether we should continue drilling in the Arctic,&quot; Clinton said. &quot;I don't think it is a necessary part of our overall clean energy climate change agenda.”</p>
<p><strong>Update, 4:45 pm.: </strong><a href="http://www.kptv.com/story/29672344/us-district-judge-fines-greenpeace-2500-per-hour-over-bridge-protest">The Associated Press reports</a> a federal judge in Alaska ruled on Thursday that the Greenpeace activists are in contempt of an earlier ruling preventing protests too close to Shell’s vessels. The judge imposed an escalating fine on Greenpeace, payable to Shell, at $2,500 per hour—rising to $10,000 per hour if the protest is still continuing on Sunday.</p>
<p><strong>Update, 8:55 pm.: </strong>After more than 40 hours, Shell's Fennica has departed Portland.&nbsp;<a href="http://www.oregonlive.com/portland/index.ssf/2015/07/greenpeace_protest_icebreaker.html">The Oregonian reports</a>&nbsp;an eventful afternoon which involved an official closure of a section of the Willamette River and nearly continuous confrontations between protesting kayakers and the Coast Guard, including the Coast Guard and local authorities forcibly removing kaykers from the river using hooked poles. After removing three of the climbers from the bridge, authorities were eventually able to clear a wide enough path through the river for the Fennica to pass.</p>Thu, 30 Jul 2015 17:41:00 GMThttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2015/07/30/shell_blockade_greenpeace_activists_stop_an_oil_industry_ship_bound_for.htmlEric Holthaus2015-07-30T17:41:00ZbriefingGreenpeace Activists Successfully Blockade Shell Icebreaker Bound for the Arctic227150730009arcticglobal warmingclimate changegreenpeaceprotestsEric HolthausThe SlatestThe Slatesthttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2015/07/30/shell_blockade_greenpeace_activists_stop_an_oil_industry_ship_bound_for.htmlfalsefalsefalseGreenpeace blockade forces Shell's Arctic-bound icebreaker back to port. PHOTOS:It's kayaktivism’s biggest victory to date.Photo by Robert Meyers courtesy Greenpeace USAActivists hang from and kayak under the St. Johns Bridge in Portland, Oregon, in an attempt to block the Shell-leased icebreaker MSV <em>Fennica</em> on July 29, 2015.These Three Words Perfectly Sum Up Wednesday’s East Coast Weatherhttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2015/07/29/east_coast_heat_wave_temperatures_top_90_and_man_is_it_gross_out_there.html
<p>The <em>Washington Post</em>’s Capital Weather Gang has long been the royalty of internet weather. On Wednesday, they said what everyone already knew:</p>
<p>Those three perfectly timed words, coming from a group of meteorologists known more for their in-depth analysis, were exactly what we needed to hear on a day like today.</p>
<p>At fault for the horrid weather, besides the fact that it’s late July, is a weird little storm system moving through southern Canada that’s pulling loads of subtropical humidity northward along the East Coast. That same swirl produced an “exceptional” summertime snowstorm in the mountains of Montana on Monday, along with 60 mph wind gusts. “This pattern should not happen in July,” wrote the National Weather Service forecaster in Billings, stating the obvious. The Capital Weather Gang’s Jason Samenow has <a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2015/07/28/exceptional-cold-front-blankets-montana-wyoming-peaks-with-rare-july-snow/">a comprehensive look</a> at the rarity of Monday’s snow.</p>
<p>Fast forward two days, and parts of <a href="https://twitter.com/EricHolthaus/status/626403333041860609">more than 30 states</a> are expected to top 90 degrees on Wednesday, including New York City, Philadelphia, Washington, D.C., Boston, and much of the West Coast.</p>
<p>Thankfully, some relief is on the way, at least in the East.</p>
<p>Once this swirl moves out of the picture by Thursday, humidity levels will drop, alleviating that whole “gross” factor. Still, a recent analysis by Climate Central showed that in addition to more frequent heat waves, global warming <a href="http://www.climatecentral.org/news/stagnant-summer-days-on-rise-19280">is already making the air more stagnant</a> and sultry on the hottest summer days, contributing to poor air quality. An air quality alert is in effect today for a good portion of the Northeast, from Delaware to Philadelphia to New York City to coastal Connecticut to southern Massachusetts.</p>Wed, 29 Jul 2015 15:08:28 GMThttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2015/07/29/east_coast_heat_wave_temperatures_top_90_and_man_is_it_gross_out_there.htmlEric Holthaus2015-07-29T15:08:28ZbriefingThese Three Words Perfectly Sum Up Wednesday’s East Coast Weather227150729004heat waveglobal warmingclimate changeweatherEric HolthausThe SlatestThe Slatesthttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2015/07/29/east_coast_heat_wave_temperatures_top_90_and_man_is_it_gross_out_there.htmlfalsefalsefalseAll you need to know about today's East Coast heat wave, in three words:Man is it yuck out there.Levi Cowan/NOAAIt's late July, and the weather map is on fire.Hillary Clinton’s Climate Plan Is Rhetorically Grand and Scientifically Unambitioushttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2015/07/28/hillary_clinton_s_clean_energy_challenge_doesn_t_match_up_with_climate_science.html
<p>On Sunday, Hillary Clinton, the frontrunner for the Democratic nomination for president, released <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2015/07/27/hillary_clinton_s_climate_plans_democratic_hopeful_goes_big_on_clean_energy.html">her first policy proposals</a> on climate change—and at first glance, the Clinton plan seems ambitious. It secures the Obama administration’s gains on renewable energy and, as my <strong><em>Slate</em></strong> colleague Josh Voorhees <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2015/07/27/hillary_clinton_s_climate_plans_democratic_hopeful_goes_big_on_clean_energy.html">writes</a>, provides a “solid start” to take them significantly forward. It is great to hear Clinton call global warming an “urgent challenge that threatens us all.”</p>
<p>But is the new Clinton climate plan ambitious enough according to the science? Not really.</p>
<p>Like many of his colleagues, climate scientist Kevin Anderson <a href="http://kevinanderson.info/blog/letter-to-the-pm-outlining-how-2c-demands-an-80-cut-in-eu-emissions-by-2030/">has argued that</a> since there’s only a finite amount of carbon that can be emitted before the world is committed to “dangerous” climate change, and we’ve waited so long for serious climate policies, a “war-like” mobilization <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/future_tense/2015/07/17/paris_climate_summit_preview_world_leaders_offer_lackluster_plans_to_limit.html">is now required</a>. International equity—letting poor countries emit more carbon than rich countries from here on out—demands that the United States, Europe, and other historically high emitting countries <a href="http://climateactiontracker.org/countries/usa.html">should position themselves</a> for at least 80 percent reduction in emissions by 2030. With Obama at the helm, the U.S. is <a href="http://cleantechnica.com/2015/07/24/climate-change-issues-may-decide-2016-us-election-video/">on pace</a> for reductions of just 43 percent by then. Clinton’s new plan is consistent with a reduction of about 54 percent by 2030.</p>
<p>It’s true that Clinton’s plan is a significant improvement from Obama’s, but when compared to her two principal challengers, Clinton’s climate goals don’t look so grand. Emily Atkin from <em>Climate Progress </em>has <a href="http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2015/07/28/3684667/omalley-vs-clinton-vs-sanders-climate-plans/">a worthwhile analysis</a> of climate policy statements so far from Clinton, Bernie Sanders, and Martin O’Malley, concluding that O’Malley’s statements rise to the top. I’ve gone a step further and tried to assign likely nationwide greenhouse gas emissions totals for the major plans on the table right now:</p>
<ul>
<li>Barack Obama’s Climate Action Plan, which includes his Clean Power Plan targets.</li>
<li>Clinton’s Clean Energy Challenge, announced Sunday.</li>
<li>Bernie Sanders’ probable plan. Sanders hasn’t announced a comprehensive climate proposal yet, but he’s <a href="http://350.org/sen-bernie-sanders-and-bill-mckibben-speaking-circuit/">aligned himself in the past</a> with ideas put forward by climate scientist James Hansen, whose 350 parts per million <a href="http://qz.com/154196/the-only-way-to-stop-climate-change-now-may-be-revolution/">goal by 2100</a> includes massive reforestation and other “soft geoengineering” proposals.</li>
<li>Martin O’Malley’s goal to fully power the United States by renewable energy by 2050.</li>
</ul>
<p>If you agree that climate change is the <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/news/datablog/2015/jul/17/climate-change-greatest-threat-global-population">singular foreign policy issue</a> of the 21<sup>st</sup> century—an “existential threat” as Clinton called it <a href="http://www.politico.com/story/2015/07/a-challenge-for-hillary-clinton-120270.html">recently</a>, the O’Malley plan is almost a perfect example of what going all in looks like. While such a plan <a href="http://news.stanford.edu/pr/2015/pr-50states-renewable-energy-060815.html">is technically possible</a>, emissions reductions <a href="https://martinomalley.com/uncategorized/oppose-keystone-xl/">that drastic</a> would almost certainly require a willing Congress at the president’s disposal—most notably to put a price on carbon that motivates the private sector—and even then, it’s still an open question of whether full decarbonization by 2050 is possible given the heroic social and political change it would require at the same time. (David Roberts recently had <a href="http://www.vox.com/2015/6/9/8748081/us-100-percent-renewable-energy">an excellent examination of this</a> at <em>Vox</em>.)</p>
<p>To be fair, as a Clinton <a href="https://t.co/SomCKNXElq">fact sheet</a> promises, Sunday’s announcement is only the first prong of her forthcoming comprehensive six-prong climate plan, so there will be much more to analyze in the coming weeks. But digging into the numbers, Clinton’s plan barely moves the needle forward.</p>
<p>On day one, Clinton says, she’d put the U.S. on a path for a seven-fold increase in solar power, which would help usher in enough renewable energy to completely power all homes by 2027. What she doesn’t say is that her plan is voluntary, and <a href="http://www.vox.com/2015/7/26/9044343/hillary-clinton-renewable-solar">would probably require more</a> policy changes than she’s introduced to make it happen.</p>
<p>Essentially, Clinton is proposing to <a href="https://twitter.com/CDP/status/625671018040967171">continue a nationwide exponential uptake</a> in solar. That assumes <a href="http://www.rtcc.org/2014/04/30/us-solar-power-installed-costs-on-course-for-2020-target/">continuing declining costs</a> for solar power and clean energy tax breaks that don’t expire. As Greentech Media <a href="http://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/can-the-us-reach-hillary-clintons-new-solar-goal">points out</a>, even with Clinton’s lofty goals, the total amount of installed solar power in the U.S. would grow at a slightly slower rate in Clinton’s first term than it’s on pace to during Obama’s second term. O’Malley and Sanders are much more ambitious than Clinton on climate, even allowing for these uncertainties.</p>
<p>Although solar often gets top billing in political announcements like Clinton’s, it still represents less than 1 percent of our electricity generation, so it will take tremendous growth for many years for it to provide a meaningful offset to fossil fuels. Despite <a href="http://earthtechling.com/2012/04/could-sexy-sell-solar-panels-ask-american-apparel/">its sexiness</a>, solar is <a href="http://www.vox.com/2015/2/5/7977869/wind-solar-costs-falling">among the most expensive ways</a> to decrease our country’s carbon footprint. A far better near-term choice is wind power, but both wind and solar begin to have another problem at scales at or above that which Clinton is discussing: Since solar panels and wind turbines can’t currently work at full capacity 24 hours a day, they require huge advances in energy storage and grid capacity, as well. California is <a href="http://blog.ucsusa.org/powering-california-with-50-percent-renewable-energy-by-2030-393">already running into this problem</a> as it prepares to implement <a href="http://cleantechnica.com/2015/06/19/50-renewable-electricity-passed-california-senate/">a plan</a> to derive 50 percent of its energy from renewable sources by 2030. Earlier this year, China <a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-07-28/china-idles-solar-power-for-first-time-amid-grid-congestion">was forced to idle</a> about 9 percent of its solar capacity because of storage and grid issues.</p>
<p>Clinton says she wants to turn America into the “world’s clean energy superpower.” But you can’t get there by continuing to support fossil fuel drilling on public lands. <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_ZwguLJVxsM&amp;feature=youtu.be">Clinton’s video laying out her plan</a> includes imagery of the Apollo moon landing and the World War II flag-raising at Iwo Jima. But Clinton’s plan is not a war-like clean energy mobilization. It’s about what could be expected from an establishment candidate that believes human-caused climate change is a growing threat to global stability, but nowhere near what science and international equity dictates is necessary.</p>
<p>Earlier this month, <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2015/07/16/hillary_clinton_got_heckled_by_climate_activists_at_a_new_hampshire_town.html">Clinton was heckled</a> by climate campaigners at a New Hampshire town hall-style meeting for a clear (and in my opinion, condescending) response in which she refused to oppose oil drilling on public lands. As <em>Grist</em>’s Ben Adler says, Clinton “still hasn’t broken out of the ‘all of the above’ energy policy mold.” In a separate post, Adler notes that among the contributors to the Clinton campaign so far are ExxonMobil executive Theresa Mary Fariello, Chevron lobbyists Scott Parven and Brian Pomper, and Gordon Giffin,&nbsp;a former lobbyist&nbsp;for TransCanada, the company pushing to build the Keystone XL pipeline. And after her event Monday where she launched her climate change policies, which oddly <a href="https://twitter.com/ABCLiz/status/625681321893822464">took place in a room</a> where only media were allowed in (perhaps to avoid a second embarrassing heckling episode?), Clinton <a href="https://twitter.com/ZacMoffatt/status/626047835226669056">boarded a private jet</a> to New Hampshire.</p>Tue, 28 Jul 2015 21:59:35 GMThttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2015/07/28/hillary_clinton_s_clean_energy_challenge_doesn_t_match_up_with_climate_science.htmlEric Holthaus2015-07-28T21:59:35ZbriefingHillary Clinton’s Climate Plan Is Rhetorically Grand and Scientifically Unambitious227150728012hillary clintonbarack obamabernie sandersmartin o’malleyclimate changeEric HolthausThe SlatestThe Slatesthttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2015/07/28/hillary_clinton_s_clean_energy_challenge_doesn_t_match_up_with_climate_science.htmlfalsefalsefalseThe climate change plans of Clinton vs Sanders vs O'Malley vs Obama, on one chart:Another presidential contender's plan is much, much better.Photo by Spencer Platt/Getty ImagesAccording to climate science, Hillary Clinton doesn't have much to be cheerful about.Earth’s Most Famous Climate Scientist Issues Bombshell Sea Level Warninghttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2015/07/20/sea_level_study_james_hansen_issues_dire_climate_warning.html
<p>In what may prove to be a turning point for political action on climate change, a breathtaking new study casts extreme doubt about the near-term stability of global sea levels.</p>
<p>The study—written by James Hansen, NASA’s former lead climate scientist, and 16 co-authors, many of whom are considered among the top in their fields—concludes that glaciers in Greenland and Antarctica will melt 10 times faster than previous consensus estimates, resulting in sea level rise of at least 10 feet in as little as 50 years. The study, which has not yet been peer-reviewed, brings new importance to a feedback loop in the ocean near Antarctica that results in cooler freshwater from melting glaciers forcing warmer, saltier water underneath the ice sheets, speeding up the melting rate. Hansen, <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/1988/06/24/us/global-warming-has-begun-expert-tells-senate.html">who is known for being alarmist and also right</a>, acknowledges that his study implies change far beyond previous consensus estimates. In a conference call with reporters, he said he hoped the new findings would be “substantially more persuasive than anything previously published.” I certainly find them to be.</p>
<p>To come to their findings, the authors used a mixture of paleoclimate records, computer models, and observations of current rates of sea level rise, but “the real world is moving somewhat faster than the model,” Hansen says.</p>
<p>Hansen’s study does not attempt to predict the precise timing of the feedback loop, only that it is “likely” to occur this century. The implications are mindboggling: In the study’s likely scenario, New York City—and every other coastal city on the planet—<a href="http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2015/07/20/climate-seer-james-hansen-issues-his-direst-forecast-yet.html?utm_content=buffer1b0f4&amp;utm_medium=social&amp;utm_source=twitter.com&amp;utm_campaign=buffer">may only have</a> a few more decades of habitability left. That dire prediction, in Hansen’s view, requires “emergency cooperation among nations.”</p>
<blockquote>
We conclude that continued high emissions will make multi-meter sea level rise practically unavoidable and likely to occur this century. Social disruption and economic consequences of such large sea level rise could be devastating. It is not difficult to imagine that conflicts arising from forced migrations and economic collapse might make the planet ungovernable, threatening the fabric of civilization.
</blockquote>
<p>The science of ice melt rates is advancing so fast, scientists have generally been reluctant to put a number to what is essentially an unpredictable, nonlinear response of ice sheets to a steadily warming ocean. With Hansen’s new study, that changes in a dramatic way. One of the study’s co-authors is Eric Rignot, whose own study last year found that glacial melt from West Antarctica now appears to be “unstoppable.” Chris Mooney, writing for <em>Mother Jones</em>, <a href="http://www.motherjones.com/environment/2014/05/west-antarctic-ice-sheet-collapse">called that study</a> a “holy shit” moment for the climate.</p>
<p>One necessary note of caution: Hansen’s study comes via a nontraditional publishing decision by its authors. The study will be published in <em>Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics</em>, an open-access “discussion” journal, and will not have formal peer review prior to its appearance online later this week. [<strong>Update, July 23:</strong> <a href="http://www.atmos-chem-phys-discuss.net/15/20059/2015/acpd-15-20059-2015.html">The paper is now available</a>.] The complete discussion draft circulated to journalists was 66 pages long, and included more than 300 references. The peer review will take place in real time, with responses to the work by other scientists also published online. Hansen said this publishing timeline was necessary to make the work public as soon as possible before global negotiators meet in Paris later this year. Still, the lack of traditional peer review and the fact that this study’s results go far beyond what’s been previously published will likely bring increased scrutiny. On Twitter, Ruth Mottram, a climate scientist whose work focuses on Greenland and the Arctic, <a href="https://twitter.com/ruth_mottram/status/623154245903208448">was skeptical</a> of such enormous rates of near-term sea level rise, though <a href="https://twitter.com/ruth_mottram/status/623151887911682049">she defended</a> Hansen’s decision to publish in a nontraditional way.</p>
<p>In 2013, Hansen left his post at NASA to become a climate activist because, <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2013/04/02/science/james-e-hansen-retiring-from-nasa-to-fight-global-warming.html?pagewanted=all">in his words</a>, “as a government employee, you can’t testify against the government.” In a wide-ranging December 2013 study, conducted to support Our Children’s Trust, a group advancing legal challenges to lax greenhouse gas emissions policies on behalf of minors, Hansen <a href="http://qz.com/154196/the-only-way-to-stop-climate-change-now-may-be-revolution/">called for</a> a “human tipping point”—essentially, a social revolution—as one of the most effective ways of combating climate change, though he still favors a bilateral carbon tax agreed upon by the United States and China as the best near-term climate policy. In the new study, Hansen writes, &quot;there is no morally defensible excuse to delay phase-out of fossil fuel emissions as rapidly as possible.&quot;</p>
<p>Asked whether Hansen has plans to personally present the new research to world leaders, he said: “Yes, but I can’t talk about that today.” What’s <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/future_tense/2015/07/17/paris_climate_summit_preview_world_leaders_offer_lackluster_plans_to_limit.html">still uncertain</a> is whether, like with so many previous dire warnings, world leaders will be willing to listen.</p>Mon, 20 Jul 2015 20:23:32 GMThttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2015/07/20/sea_level_study_james_hansen_issues_dire_climate_warning.htmlEric Holthaus2015-07-20T20:23:32ZbriefingEarth’s Most Famous Climate Scientist Issues Bombshell Sea Level Warning227150720008climateEric HolthausThe SlatestThe Slatesthttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2015/07/20/sea_level_study_james_hansen_issues_dire_climate_warning.htmlfalsefalsefalseEarth's most famous climate scientist issues bombshell warning:In the study’s likely scenario, New York City—and every other coastal city on the planet—may only have a few more decades of habitability left.1519028539001AQ~~,AAAAAASoY90~,_gW1ZHvKG_2pKN0AJTySft1Irx-gT62t330299236800142757999760011519028539001AQ~~,AAAAAASoY90~,_gW1ZHvKG_2pKN0AJTySft1Irx-gT62t330299236800142757999760011519028539001AQ~~,AAAAAASoY90~,_gW1ZHvKG_2pKN0AJTySft1Irx-gT62t330299236800142757999760011519028539001AQ~~,AAAAAASoY90~,_gW1ZHvKG_2pKN0AJTySft1Irx-gT62t330299236800142757999760011519028539001AQ~~,AAAAAASoY90~,_gW1ZHvKG_2pKN0AJTySft1Irx-gT62t330299236800142757999760011519028539001AQ~~,AAAAAASoY90~,_gW1ZHvKG_2pKN0AJTySft1Irx-gT62t330299236800142757999760011519028539001AQ~~,AAAAAASoY90~,_gW1ZHvKG_2pKN0AJTySft1Irx-gT62t33029923680014275799976001Photo by Joe Raedle/Getty ImagesMonday's new study greatly increases the potential for catastrophic near-term sea level rise. Here, Miami Beach, among the most vulnerable cities to sea level rise in the world.On the Front Lines of the Terrifying California Freeway Wildfirehttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2015/07/19/california_north_fire_jumps_freeway_a_glimpse_of_the_drought_s_explosive.html
<p>On Friday evening, Grace Taylor and her parents were returning to their Southern California home after celebrating her sister’s 21<sup>st</sup> birthday in Las Vegas. The traffic on I-15 began came to a standstill, and she could see smoke and flames ahead. After two hours, they were still stuck on the freeway, wondering what to do next.</p>
<p>Then things started getting <a href="https://twitter.com/jpanzar/status/622262321126096896">surreal</a>. “We saw a bunch of big rigs covered with the fire retardant, splattered in pink,” said Grace, 16. Her father, Sean, made sure their car stayed in the far left lane, as far as possible from the quickly growing wildfire that was burning through the brush and grass along the right side of the freeway.</p>
<p>“I figured, we’ll have a buffer of those three other lanes,” said Sean, “in case those people start running.” Sean also formulated a bail-out plan, in case they needed to ditch their car: “We were going to jump over those retaining walls and cross the freeway to get out,” he said. “It was very ‘Walking Dead.'&quot;</p>
<p>Five drones were spotted flying around the scene soon after the fire began, complicating efforts to limit the fire’s spread and <a href="http://gizmodo.com/firefighters-cant-save-people-burning-in-cars-because-o-1718675039">grounding</a> firefighting aircraft for about 25 minutes—the third time just this month in San Bernardino County alone that firefighting had to be delayed due to drone activity.</p>
<p>Despite a <a href="http://inciweb.nwcg.gov/incident/4395/">full-out assault</a> by 1,000 firefighters, 22 fire trucks, 6 tanker aircraft, and 3 helicopters, the fire expanded from 50 acres to 3,500 acres—more than four times the size of New York City’s Central Park—in just a few hours. Then it jumped the freeway, creating an apocalyptic scene. “I've never seen anything like this before,” <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2015/07/18/watch_as_wildfire_overruns_packed_california_freeway_burns_cars.html">said</a> California Highway Patrol Officer Steve Carapia. People in vehicles closest to the flames <a href="http://www.latimes.com/local/lanow/la-me-ln-fire-in-cajon-pass-20150717-story.html#page=1">told</a> the <em>Los Angeles Times</em> they ran for their lives. Thankfully, the Taylors made it home safely. Watching the news that evening, they recognized vehicles that had passed them—and had ended up burning—including <a href="https://twitter.com/KTLA/status/622186767630766080">a boat trailer</a>.</p>
<p>In total, the North Fire burned through 30 vehicles on I-15 on Friday night, and dozens more in the nearby community of Baldy Mesa, at the top of Cajon Pass just northwest of Los Angeles. <a href="https://twitter.com/latimes/status/622457786916597761">Unseasonable rains</a> helped control the fire on Saturday, and the freeway was mostly reopened by midday after repair crews <a href="http://www.desertdispatch.com/article/20150718/NEWS/150719909">resurfaced the melted road</a> and replaced burned guardrail.</p>
<p>In the midst of the worst drought <a href="http://www.slate.com/topics/t/thirsty_west.html">in centuries</a>, wildfires in California have entered a scary new phase. Warming winters have morphed fire “season” into what is now <a href="http://www.slate.com/articles/technology/future_tense/2014/04/california_s_fire_season_is_basically_year_round_now.html">essentially a year-round menace</a>. This year’s <a href="http://wildfiretoday.com/2015/07/01/outlook-for-wildfire-potential-through-october-2015/">outlook</a> was especially dire, and it looks to be turning out as predicted.</p>
<p>Wildfire photographer and Southern California native Stuart Palley (who shot the images in this slideshow and <a href="http://mashable.com/2015/07/18/wildfires-california/">other breathtaking images</a> Friday night) has trained with U.S. Forest Service firefighting crews to gain access to the front lines. Palley has chosen his profession in part to document California’s new reality, gaining inspiration from the 1993 Laguna Beach fire and the 2003 and 2007 firestorms in San Diego that burned hundreds of homes as they descended into the city. Given what state officials <a href="http://www.nbcsandiego.com/news/local/2015-Has-Worst-Fire-Conditions-on-Record-Cal-Fire-308873641.html">are calling</a> worst fire conditions in California history, Palley thinks its only a matter of time before something like that happens again. “Yesterday, I think, was a good dress rehearsal.”</p>
<p>For Maryam Rizvi, who lives only a few miles from where Friday’s fire crossed the freeway, it was a tense day. “To see it from your house and see the fire actually getting closer and closer and see the smoke consume your neighborhood, it’s a really helpless feeling,” Rizvi said. “We had no idea what we would do. We were just praying they would be able to contain it.”</p>
<p>As she waited to hear news from her aunt and uncle, who were stuck on the freeway until 4 a.m. during the fire, Rizvi contemplated her relationship with the environment. “It’s a really sick feeling in the pit of your stomach,” Rizvi said, to see the fires and realize a place she knows so well was being irreversibly changed. “It’s just going to keep getting worse.”</p>
<p><em>This post has been updated with further information.</em></p>Sun, 19 Jul 2015 14:24:22 GMThttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2015/07/19/california_north_fire_jumps_freeway_a_glimpse_of_the_drought_s_explosive.htmlEric Holthaus2015-07-19T14:24:22ZbriefingOn the Front Lines of the Terrifying California Freeway Wildfire227150719002wildfirethirsty westcalifornia droughtEric HolthausThe SlatestThe Slatesthttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2015/07/19/california_north_fire_jumps_freeway_a_glimpse_of_the_drought_s_explosive.htmlfalsefalsefalseA wildfire jumps the freeway, harbinger of a changed California:“I figured, we’ll have a buffer of those three other lanes,” said Sean, “in case those people start running.”Stuart PalleyThe North Fire burns at night near Phelan, California early Saturday morning July 18, 2015. The fire scorched 3,500 acres, jumped Interstate 15, and burned four homes.World Leaders Refuse to Budge From Worst-Case Climate Scenariohttp://www.slate.com/blogs/future_tense/2015/07/17/paris_climate_summit_preview_world_leaders_offer_lackluster_plans_to_limit.html
<p>For advocates of the atmosphere (which should be pretty much everyone who breathes), this December’s meeting of world leaders in Paris is a really big deal. For the first time, it’s expected that virtually every country on Earth will agree to plans to reduce global emissions. The excellent Responding to Climate Change blog has <a href="http://www.rtcc.org/2015/06/22/un-climate-talks-and-the-paris-deal-a-bluffers-guide/">a detailed preview</a> of the upcoming negotiations.</p>
<p>Over the last few months, countries have been submitting drafts of those plans—which <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2014/08/27/us/politics/obama-pursuing-climate-accord-in-lieu-of-treaty.html?_r=0">likely will be nonbinding</a>, thanks to the recalcitrant U.S. Congress. Now nations responsible for more than half of world emissions have submitted their proposals. Looking at those plans in detail gives a preview of what the likely outcome of the Paris talks will be—and it ain’t pretty.</p>
<p>The climate policies currently in place worldwide would lead to a projected 3.9 degrees Celsius temperature rise this century, <a href="http://climateactiontracker.org/countries.html">according to</a> Climate Action Tracker, a group of independent climate research organizations. The pledges announced so far for Paris would only shave about 0.8 degrees off that figure.</p>
<p>The worst laggards are Australia, Canada, Japan, Russia, South Africa, and South Korea. Together, these countries account for about 15 percent of global emissions—about the same as the United States, <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2015/03/31/u_s_climate_targets_in_advance_of_paris_agreement_the_obama_administration.html">whose proposal</a> wasn’t much better. A separate assessment by the Netherlands government shows <a href="http://infographics.pbl.nl/indc/">a stark divide</a> between current policies and pledges and the necessary pathway.</p>
<p>Japan’s plan, submitted to the United Nations on Friday, is especially weak. “With the policies it already has in place, Japan can almost reach its proposed [emissions] target without taking any further action,” <a href="http://climateactiontracker.org/countries/japan.html">said</a> Climate Action Tracker’s assessment.</p>
<p>Given these plans, the organizers of the summit <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/future_tense/2015/02/04/u_n_paris_climate_talks_even_the_architects_of_the_agreement_are_pessimistic.html">aren’t too optimistic</a> about making change happen, nor are <a href="http://www.rtcc.org/2015/07/10/how-do-scientists-rate-the-prospect-of-a-global-climate-deal/">scientists</a>. Yes, it’s still possible to reduce the effects climate change will have in the future. But after a quarter-century of delay, <a href="https://twitter.com/Peters_Glen/status/596210369145745408">the scale</a> of action necessary to make a difference is huge—and it isn’t being seriously discussed at the highest levels.</p>
<p>Climate change is <a href="http://www.vox.com/cards/global-warming">a particularly tricky problem</a>. The global economy is still dependent on fossil fuels, which makes for countless vested interests defending the status quo. Most of this was known way back in 1988, the year researcher James Hansen <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/1988/06/24/us/global-warming-has-begun-expert-tells-senate.html">famously testified</a> in front of Congress on behalf of the climate science community, but there’s no way he could have known just how difficult it would be to motivate meaningful change. Fast-forward nearly 30 years, and the world is still <a href="https://twitter.com/tucsonpeck/status/519150105752911872">tracking along a worst-case scenario</a>.</p>
<p>The world’s leading climate experts <a href="http://sites.biology.duke.edu/jackson/ncc2014.pdf">recently analyzed</a> 116 official scenarios that would ensure a rise of no more than 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels. However, just nine of them have realistic assumptions on bioenergy—converting vast tracts of the world’s cropland into (theoretically) carbon-neutral fuel—and <a href="https://twitter.com/Peters_Glen/status/599612936496218112">all nine of those</a> scenarios show emissions peaking <em>below</em> current levels. The planet has backed itself into a corner.</p>
<p>We’ve waited so long that many “effective” climate policy proposals—which would ensure a reasonable chance of keeping global temperatures with the <a href="http://www.carbonbrief.org/blog/2014/12/two-degrees-a-selected-history-of-climate-change-speed-limit/">internationally agreed-upon</a> “safe” zone—would <a href="https://twitter.com/KevinClimate/status/618461582197133312">require time travel</a>. That is to say, <a href="https://carboncounter.wordpress.com/2015/05/28/glen-peters-on-the-infeasibility-of-2-c/">they make wild assumptions</a> about the <a href="https://twitter.com/Peters_Glen/status/599563267384713216">potential of biofuels</a> and <a href="http://www.slate.com/articles/health_and_science/science/2015/02/nrc_geoengineering_report_climate_hacking_is_dangerous_and_barking_mad.html">geoengineering</a> or rely on <a href="http://roadtoparis.info/2015/03/30/will-negative-emissions-technology-get-us-to-2-degrees/">unproven</a> technologies like <a href="https://twitter.com/Peters_Glen/status/597699847618191360">carbon capture</a> or a stunning <a href="https://twitter.com/Peters_Glen/status/606018253643726848">nuclear renaissance</a>. Even a 50-50 shot at staying below this level would require a “war-like” mobilization, <a href="https://twitter.com/Peters_Glen/status/608166713281114112">according to</a> climate scientist Kevin Anderson, though you don’t often hear scientists admitting this.</p>
<p>There’s been <a href="http://www.rtcc.org/2015/05/06/leading-scientists-accused-of-offering-false-hope-on-climate/">significant controversy</a> within the climate science community this year on whether these scenarios are misleading the public and giving “false hope” to vulnerable populations most at risk.</p>
<p>Now, I’m not saying that Paris will be a waste of time, but the disconnect between what’s on the table and what’s necessary is striking. We know what climate change strategy <a href="http://www.greenbiz.com/article/10-steps-new-climate-economy">already works</a>: burning less fossil fuel. How can we make that happen, if we can’t depend on bureaucrats? We’ve recently seen a shift in rhetoric about the dangers of continued fossil fuel use—whether through <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/future_tense/2014/04/13/ipcc_u_n_climate_report_fundamental_decarbonization_won_t_wreck_the_economy.html">divestment</a> or <a href="http://www.slate.com/articles/health_and_science/science/2015/05/protest_against_shell_drilling_in_the_arctic_kayaks_and_boats_near_seattle.html">kayaktivism</a> or good <a href="http://www.slate.com/articles/life/faithbased/2015/06/pope_francis_encyclical_on_the_environment_and_climate_change_it_s_great.html">old-fashioned Catholic guilt</a>. And that could be at least as effective as the conference room deals that will be hashed out in Paris among world leaders. The world needs an energy revolution to prevent the worst of climate change. At this point, it may take <a href="https://storify.com/KA_Nicholas/kevin-anderson-delivering-on-2degc-evolution-or-re">a political revolution</a> to get the job done.</p>Fri, 17 Jul 2015 18:11:13 GMThttp://www.slate.com/blogs/future_tense/2015/07/17/paris_climate_summit_preview_world_leaders_offer_lackluster_plans_to_limit.htmlEric Holthaus2015-07-17T18:11:13ZTechnologyWorld Leaders Refuse to Budge From Worst-Case Climate Scenario203150717003climate changeglobal warmingparisunited nationsdivestmentEric HolthausFuture TenseFuture Tensehttp://www.slate.com/blogs/future_tense/2015/07/17/paris_climate_summit_preview_world_leaders_offer_lackluster_plans_to_limit.htmlfalsefalsefalseClimate change has gotten so out of hand, it may require time travel to fix it:At this point, revolution may be our best hope.Photo by Joel Saget/AFP/Getty ImagesDon't expect many fireworks at the big Paris climate summit this December.Could a Catastrophic Earthquake Really Destroy Seattle?http://www.slate.com/articles/health_and_science/science/2015/07/kathryn_schulz_s_new_yorker_story_on_pacific_northwest_earthquake_geologists.html
<p>The last earthquake of roughly magnitude 9 in the Pacific Northwest happened 75 years before the United States existed. One day, possibly in the not-too-distant future, the Earth’s crust will again convulse in a megaquake. What will happen then will dwarf any natural disaster our country has ever experienced.</p>
<p>This week in the <em>New Yorker</em>, Kathryn Schulz, who lives in Oregon, scared the living bejeezus out of us by describing the aftermath of the coming Cascadia megathrust earthquake in gut-wrenching detail. Think of the 2011 Japan earthquake and tsunami that sparked the Fukushima disaster—only the Northwest is nowhere nearly as prepared as Japan was. A word of caution if you read <a href="http://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2015/07/20/the-really-big-one">the article</a>: If you live in Seattle, you’ll probably find yourself wanting to sleep outside tonight.</p>
<p>Here’s a telling excerpt:</p>
<blockquote>
By the time the shaking has ceased and the tsunami has receded, the region will be unrecognizable. Kenneth Murphy, who directs FEMA’s Region X, the division responsible for Oregon, Washington, Idaho, and Alaska, says, “Our operating assumption is that everything west of Interstate 5 will be toast.”
</blockquote>
<p>Seattle’s excellent alternative weekly, the <em>Stranger</em>, <a href="http://www.thestranger.com/blogs/slog/2015/07/14/22540273/the-five-scariest-takeaways-from-the-new-yorker-article-about-the-earthquake-that-will-devastate-seattle">emphasizes</a> the main takeaways from the story: The earthquake will be really bad, the tsunami will be worse for many people, this event is now overdue, and the Northwest isn’t prepared for it.</p>
<p>So, how accurate is this doomsday scenario? Did Schulz exaggerate any bits? Should you start hoarding Tillamook cheese and Black Butte Porter? Should we start a petition to the NFL to relocate the Seahawks to Omaha?</p>
<p>Thankfully, this is why we have Reddit. On Tuesday, a group of Northwest earthquake experts, including Washington state seismologist <a href="http://earthweb.ess.washington.edu/vidale/John_Vidale/Home.html">John Vidale</a>, answered reader questions on Reddit’s “<a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/IAmA">IAmA</a>” channel. <a href="http://www.reddit.com/r/IAmA/comments/3da1mh/we_are_earthquake_experts_ask_us_anything_about/">The discussion</a> generated more than 800 comments.</p>
<p>One main theme that emerged from the discussion was that yes, an earthquake of the magnitude Schulz describes could happen at any moment, but that she took a bit of poetic license in describing the aftermath, especially the tsunami threat to Seattle and Portland. There was a fairly desperate question asking the experts to highlight inaccuracies in the Schulz piece (another commenter described Facebook posts from worried parents considering home schooling their kids for fear of them being crushed or drowned by a tsunami). Vidale <a href="http://www.reddit.com/r/IAmA/comments/3da1mh/we_are_earthquake_experts_ask_us_anything_about/ct379ew">said</a>: “Communications may black out, transportation may grind to a halt, stores conceivably could run out of goods for a while, but that doesn't constitute ‘toast’ in one’s mind.” In a separate interview, Vidale <a href="http://q13fox.com/2015/07/13/local-experts-respond-to-national-article-depicting-next-big-earthquake-in-pnw/">said</a> the article was “a little Hollywood” but otherwise pretty accurate.</p>
<p>The experts <a href="http://www.reddit.com/r/IAmA/comments/3da1mh/we_are_earthquake_experts_ask_us_anything_about/ct39g0b">repeatedly</a> emphasized that the risk to Seattle from a megaquake-triggered tsunami was “insignificant,” in part because Seattle is protected by the Olympic Peninsula and Puget Sound. In Portland, which is 100 miles from the coast but still relatively close to sea level, there’s <a href="http://www.reddit.com/r/IAmA/comments/3da1mh/we_are_earthquake_experts_ask_us_anything_about/ct39u31">little chance</a> the tsunami would travel up the Columbia River with enough force to do significant damage.</p>
<p>But directly on the coast, it’s a vastly different story. People will be fully exposed to any tsunami. And <a href="http://www.reddit.com/r/IAmA/comments/3da1mh/we_are_earthquake_experts_ask_us_anything_about/ct391td">there</a>, based on where the major fault lines run, the earthquake will be so strong it will temporarily overcome the force of gravity, flinging houses (and people) into the air. In Seattle, the shaking will likely be strong enough <a href="http://www.reddit.com/r/IAmA/comments/3da1mh/we_are_earthquake_experts_ask_us_anything_about/ct37h6h">to topple</a> at least one skyscraper (but not the Space Needle). Portland would be even worse off, the experts <a href="http://www.reddit.com/r/IAmA/comments/3da1mh/we_are_earthquake_experts_ask_us_anything_about/ct38jpv">confirmed</a>. The most frightening thing I learned from the Reddit discussion was that, counterintuitively, a smaller quake <a href="http://www.reddit.com/r/IAmA/comments/3da1mh/we_are_earthquake_experts_ask_us_anything_about/ct375gs">would probably</a> only <em>increase</em> the pressure on the fault—boosting the chances of a megaquake. And there’s no way around the fact that a very, very big earthquake will hit the Northwest eventually.</p>
<p>But when? Vidale said that the chances of the worst-case scenario happening in your lifetime, if you’re planning on living another 50 years or so, is <a href="http://www.reddit.com/r/IAmA/comments/3da1mh/we_are_earthquake_experts_ask_us_anything_about/ct36evt">about 15 percent</a>. That’s probably a better way of looking at the recurrence statistics than on an annual basis. Historically, the frequency of major earthquakes in the region is about <a href="http://www.reddit.com/r/IAmA/comments/3da1mh/we_are_earthquake_experts_ask_us_anything_about/ct373sk">one every 300 years</a>, which means we’re overdue for a megaquake if you average the past 10,000 years of Northwest geology. But the spacing between past magnitude-9 quakes was between 200 and 900 years. If the fault system maintains that pattern, the next big one could happen again tomorrow or in the year 2600. There’s no way to know.</p>
<p>One scenario that wasn’t mentioned in the Schulz piece but is apparently <a href="http://www.reddit.com/r/IAmA/comments/3da1mh/we_are_earthquake_experts_ask_us_anything_about/ct373xn">of big concern</a> to Redditors (considering at least one volcano is visible from every major city in the Northwest) is the chance of a major earthquake triggering a simultaneous eruption. To that concern, Vidale <a href="http://www.reddit.com/r/IAmA/comments/3da1mh/we_are_earthquake_experts_ask_us_anything_about/ct37otc">said</a>: “About 10 percent of great earthquakes trigger a volcanic eruption, and most eruptions are fairly minor, so the volcano risk is small compared to the earthquake risk.”</p>
<p>Aside from questions about <a href="http://www.reddit.com/r/IAmA/comments/3da1mh/we_are_earthquake_experts_ask_us_anything_about/ct381m7">the impact</a> of a megaquake on the Northwest’s persistent hipster problem, <a href="http://www.reddit.com/r/IAmA/comments/3da1mh/we_are_earthquake_experts_ask_us_anything_about/ct36mls">the most upvoted question</a> focused on preparedness. Schulz made a point of highlighting how advanced Japan’s earthquake warning system is, which detects the fast-moving, relatively harmless initial waves of an earthquake. Such a system is currently being tested in the Northwest. “In fact, I have it on my phone now,” <a href="http://www.reddit.com/r/IAmA/comments/3da1mh/we_are_earthquake_experts_ask_us_anything_about/ct36mls">said</a> Vidale.</p>
<p>Although the region <a href="http://www.reddit.com/r/IAmA/comments/3da1mh/we_are_earthquake_experts_ask_us_anything_about/ct3ch9o">would suffer</a> severe economic hardship, and many people would decide to abandon it after a catastrophic earthquake (as happened to New Orleans after Hurricane Katrina), that’s not reason enough <a href="http://www.reddit.com/r/IAmA/comments/3da1mh/we_are_earthquake_experts_ask_us_anything_about/ct36xzg">to move away</a> now or <a href="http://www.reddit.com/r/IAmA/comments/3da1mh/we_are_earthquake_experts_ask_us_anything_about/ct39mae">avoid relocating</a> there for a job offer. The city of Seattle <a href="http://www.reddit.com/r/IAmA/comments/3da1mh/we_are_earthquake_experts_ask_us_anything_about/ct3664x">has</a> an earthquake recovery plan and <a href="http://www.seattle.gov/dpd/codesrules/changestocode/unreinforcedmasonrybuildings/whatwhy/">is considering</a> providing incentives for homeowners to retrofit.</p>
<p>There have been <a href="https://www.google.com/webhp?sourceid=chrome-instant&amp;ion=1&amp;espv=2&amp;ie=UTF-8#q=books+on+cascade+earthquake&amp;tbm=shop">at least three</a> relatively popular books published in just the last four years about the threat to the Pacific Northwest from a major earthquake and tsunami, but the shocked reaction to the <em>New Yorker</em> article shows that a lot of people still aren’t aware of the danger. And that’s part of the problem: Without pressure from the public, governments have less incentive to institute sweeping changes to building codes and emergency warning systems. Schulz did a great job of highlighting this disconnect in her article, but the experts noted that there’s been trouble finding funding for the few million dollars per year a fully developed Northwest earthquake early warning system would cost, for example. Let’s hope that problem gets solved now.</p>Wed, 15 Jul 2015 20:59:09 GMThttp://www.slate.com/articles/health_and_science/science/2015/07/kathryn_schulz_s_new_yorker_story_on_pacific_northwest_earthquake_geologists.htmlEric Holthaus2015-07-15T20:59:09ZWorried Pacific Northwesterners seek reassurance from geologists, who are the worst people to ask for reassurance.Health and ScienceHow Accurate Is That Terrifying Story About an Earthquake in Seattle?100150715009earthquakesnatural disastersseattlePortlandEric HolthausSciencehttp://www.slate.com/articles/health_and_science/science/2015/07/kathryn_schulz_s_new_yorker_story_on_pacific_northwest_earthquake_geologists.htmlfalsefalsefalseHow accurate is the New Yorker’s terrifying Seattle/Portland earthquake story?Pretty accurate! Geologists reply to readers’ questions about how, where, and when the big one might come.1519028539001AQ~~,AAAAAASoY90~,_gW1ZHvKG_2pKN0AJTySft1Irx-gT62t426351918200142757999760011519028539001AQ~~,AAAAAASoY90~,_gW1ZHvKG_2pKN0AJTySft1Irx-gT62t426351918200142757999760011519028539001AQ~~,AAAAAASoY90~,_gW1ZHvKG_2pKN0AJTySft1Irx-gT62t426351918200142757999760011519028539001AQ~~,AAAAAASoY90~,_gW1ZHvKG_2pKN0AJTySft1Irx-gT62t426351918200142757999760011519028539001AQ~~,AAAAAASoY90~,_gW1ZHvKG_2pKN0AJTySft1Irx-gT62t426351918200142757999760011519028539001AQ~~,AAAAAASoY90~,_gW1ZHvKG_2pKN0AJTySft1Irx-gT62t426351918200142757999760011519028539001AQ~~,AAAAAASoY90~,_gW1ZHvKG_2pKN0AJTySft1Irx-gT62t426351918200142757999760011519028539001AQ~~,AAAAAASoY90~,_gW1ZHvKG_2pKN0AJTySft1Irx-gT62t42635191820014275799976001Photo by Edmund Lowe Studios, Inc./Getty ImagesSeattle’s Space Needle peeks above the fog in October 2013.Scientists React as Humanity Makes Its Closest Approach to Plutohttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2015/07/14/pluto_flyby_scientists_amazed_as_new_horizons_data_and_photos_arrive.html
<p>This is it: We’ve made it to Pluto, and what a fascinating place it is. Tuesday morning’s true-color, full-disk image taken by the New Horizons probe is destined to be <em>the</em> textbook image for decades to come, at least. It’s <a href="https://twitter.com/CatherineQ/status/620931047119802368">1,000 times better</a> than any image we could capture from Earth.</p>
<p>Scientists were ecstatic.</p>
<p>And there’s nothing better than excited scientists.</p>
<p>The mission’s principal investigator, Alan Stern, said the moment was <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2015/07/07/science/space/reaching-pluto-and-the-end-of-an-era-of-planetary-exploration.html?partner=rss&amp;emc=rss&amp;smid=tw-nytimesscience&amp;_r=1">a historic one</a> for all of humanity. &quot;We have completed the initial reconnaissance of the solar system,&quot; Stern <a href="https://twitter.com/Braun23Austin/status/620925295801937920">said</a> at a NASA press conference. In that proud moment, some scientists waved American flags and chanted “USA!” though many noted that this was an international effort, and the atmosphere in the room was more like a giddy sleepover than a display of American scientific triumph.</p>
<p>Still, our exploration of Pluto includes a distinctly American story—it was discovered in 1930 by Clyde Tombaugh, who grew up in Kansas. The New Horizons spacecraft&nbsp;<a href="https://twitter.com/mirikramer/status/620921590600081412">carries</a>&nbsp;some of his ashes.</p>
<p><strong><em>Slate</em></strong>’s Phil Plait <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/bad_astronomy/2015/07/14/pluto_new_horizons_closest_approach.html">already posted his initial thoughts</a>, and he will be writing more throughout the week as data streams in. The first emotional, sleep-deprived impressions of the image from other Pluto scientists were full of questions, but immediate interest centered its <a href="https://twitter.com/KatrinaLomidze/status/620940371636326400">prominent heart-shaped bright patch</a>.</p>
<p>The spacecraft’s closest approach to Pluto came at 7:49 a.m. Eastern time Tuesday, but it’s so busy and so far away, we won’t get the really high-resolution stuff until later in the evening. New Horizons is actually officially out of Earth contact for most of Tuesday as it focuses on data collection. Stern and his team <a href="https://twitter.com/AstronomyMag/status/620932973672574976">are eager</a> to catch a glimpse of the “I survived” signal expected <a href="https://twitter.com/elakdawalla/status/620925909571219456">about 13 hours</a> after its closest approach.</p>
<p>Since Pluto will be mostly in shadow after the probe’s closest approach, the flyby images themselves <a href="https://twitter.com/PlanetDr/status/620926343883161600">will be detailed strips</a> with 10 times the resolution of Tuesday morning’s image and extremely interesting to scientists, but probably not as stunning as this one. In one planned image, Pluto will appear as a thin crescent with the Earth and the Sun as distant points of light.</p>
<p>It’ll take <a href="https://twitter.com/MashableNews/status/620931033647583232">16 months</a> for New Horizons to send back all the data it’s taking—a “waterfall,” according to Stern. And at Tuesday morning’s press conference, Stern revealed he’s already thinking about the next Pluto mission:</p>
<p><strong>Update, 11:25 a.m.: </strong>Video of mission scientists' reactions to the moment of New Horizons' closest approach is now available:</p>Tue, 14 Jul 2015 13:55:00 GMThttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2015/07/14/pluto_flyby_scientists_amazed_as_new_horizons_data_and_photos_arrive.htmlEric Holthaus2015-07-14T13:55:00ZbriefingScientists React as Humanity Makes Its Closest Approach to Pluto227150714004planetsEric HolthausThe SlatestThe Slatesthttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2015/07/14/pluto_flyby_scientists_amazed_as_new_horizons_data_and_photos_arrive.htmlfalsefalsefalseScientists are ecstatic about Pluto. The best reactions, by @EricHolthaus:This is the best full-disk image of the mission, 1000x better than any ever taken from Earth.1519028539001AQ~~,AAAAAASoY90~,_gW1ZHvKG_2pKN0AJTySft1Irx-gT62t435404399000140961128260011519028539001AQ~~,AAAAAASoY90~,_gW1ZHvKG_2pKN0AJTySft1Irx-gT62t435404399000140961128260011519028539001AQ~~,AAAAAASoY90~,_gW1ZHvKG_2pKN0AJTySft1Irx-gT62t435404399000140961128260011519028539001AQ~~,AAAAAASoY90~,_gW1ZHvKG_2pKN0AJTySft1Irx-gT62t435404399000140961128260011519028539001AQ~~,AAAAAASoY90~,_gW1ZHvKG_2pKN0AJTySft1Irx-gT62t435404399000140961128260011519028539001AQ~~,AAAAAASoY90~,_gW1ZHvKG_2pKN0AJTySft1Irx-gT62t435404399000140961128260011519028539001AQ~~,AAAAAASoY90~,_gW1ZHvKG_2pKN0AJTySft1Irx-gT62t43540439900014096112826001NASA/New HorizonsThis is the best full-disk image of Pluto that NASA’s New Horizons spacecraft will get during its flyby, released on Tuesday morning to cheers from mission scientists. (click to enlarge)No, the Earth Is Not Heading for a “Mini Ice Age”http://www.slate.com/blogs/future_tense/2015/07/13/sunspot_cycles_won_t_cause_a_mini_ice_age_by_2030.html
<p>A new study and related <a href="https://www.ras.org.uk/news-and-press/2680-irregular-heartbeat-of-the-sun-driven-by-double-dynamo">press release</a> from the Royal Astronomical Society is making the rounds in recent days, claiming that a new statistical analysis of sunspot cycles shows “solar activity will fall by 60 per cent during the 2030s” to a level that <a href="http://www.skepticalscience.com/coming-out-of-little-ice-age-advanced.htm">last occurred</a> during the so-called Little Ice Age, which ended 300 years ago.</p>
<p>Since climate change deniers have <a href="https://www.skepticalscience.com/solar-activity-sunspots-global-warming-advanced.htm">a particular fascination</a> with sunspot cycles, this story has predictably been picked up by all manner of conservative news media, with <a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/science/11733369/Earth-heading-for-mini-ice-age-within-15-years.html">a post</a> in the <em>Telegraph</em> quickly gathering up tens of thousands of shares. The only problem is, it’s a wildly inaccurate reading of the research.</p>
<p>Sunspots have been observed on a regular basis <a href="http://solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/SunspotCycle.shtml">for at least 400 years</a>, and over that period, there’s a weak correlation between the number of sunspots and global temperature—most notably during a drastic downturn in the number of sunspots from about 1645 to 1715. Known as the Maunder minimum, this phenomenon happened about the same time as a decades-long European cold snap known as the Little Ice Age. That connection led to theory that this variability remains the dominant factor in Earth’s climate. Though that idea is still widely circulated, it’s been <a href="https://www.skepticalscience.com/solar-activity-sunspots-global-warming.htm">disproved</a>. In reality, sunspots fluctuate in an 11-year cycle, and the current cycle is the weakest <a href="http://www.skyandtelescope.com/astronomy-news/the-weakest-solar-cycle-in-100-years/">in 100 years</a>—yet 2014 was the planet’s hottest year in recorded history.</p>
<p>If you look closely at the original press release, the study’s author, Valentina Zharkova, never implied a new ice age is imminent—only that we may see a sharp downturn in the number of sunspots. Yes, the sun is a variable star, but its <em>output</em> is remarkably stable. The amount of energy we receive from the sun just doesn’t change fast enough to cause a rapid-onset ice age in just a few decades.</p>
<p>The root of the problem here may be a poorly worded quote in the press release implying an imminent 60 percent decline in solar activity. Yes, <a href="http://spaceweather.com/glossary/images2009/zurich_strip.gif">numbers of sunspots</a> can vary by that much or even more on an 11-year cycle, but the sun’s output—the total amount of energy we get—is extremely stable and only changes by about 0.1 percent, even in extreme sunspot cycles like the one Zharkova is predicting.</p>
<p>But let’s play devil’s advocate: What if Zharkova is right about the decline in solar activity? There’s still no need to worry (or to become complacent about global warming). Even assuming sunspots are in the process of shutting down, as happened during the Maunder minimum and Little Ice Age, it wouldn’t matter much.</p>
<p>An interesting <a href="http://www.nature.com/ncomms/2015/150623/ncomms8535/full/ncomms8535.html">new study</a> published in June showed that a sharp decline in solar activity to record lows <em>could</em> have a relatively large impact on regional climate over a period of decades. But even the return of a Maunder minimum type slowdown in solar activity—an extreme scenario, by any measure—would slow global warming by only about a half-degree in northern Europe. That’s essentially negligible, on a global scale. A half-degree is within the margin of error of predictions for the continued decline in frost-free days in the United Kingdom, for example. Winter will still be <a href="http://www.nature.com/ncomms/2015/150623/ncomms8535/fig_tab/ncomms8535_F4.html">a month shorter</a>, on average, by the end of the century. <a href="http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S167492781450007X">Past research</a> suggests that an extreme decline in solar activity would lead to a shift of just 0.16 degrees Celsius globally—and even that is erased once a more typical solar cycle resumes in a few decades.</p>
<p>For reference, we’ve already warmed the planet by about 0.8 degrees Celsius <a href="https://www2.ucar.edu/news/how-much-has-global-temperature-risen-last-100-years">since 1880</a> thanks to fossil fuels, and, despite all our decades of discussion about the problem, <a href="https://www.newscientist.com/article/dn26243-world-on-track-for-worstcase-warming-scenario">we’re still on pace for a worst-case scenario</a> of between 3 and 4 degrees of warming by century’s end.</p>
<p>If anything, changes in the oceans—especially the Pacific, our largest ocean—over the last couple of years <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2015/04/15/_2015_is_hot_a_weirdly_warm_pacific_ocean_is_set_to_make_this_year_the_warmest.html">point to an imminent <em>increase</em></a> in the rate of global warming. El Ni&ntilde;o has already <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2015/07/07/el_ni_o_typhoons_in_the_pacific_ocean_will_have_global_consequences.html">grown to record levels</a> in the Pacific for this time of year, and ocean temperatures in the <a href="https://twitter.com/Weather_West/status/620384930510417920">vast patch of sea</a> from Hawaii to California to Alaska are also without precedent. Similar events have coincided with a 10- to 20-year surge in global temperatures.</p>
<p>No matter what the sun does over the next century, we are not heading in to a new ice age. Why am I so sure about that? It may have something to do with the 110 million tons of carbon dioxide humanity is pumping into the atmosphere <em>every single day</em>. The resulting change to our global climate system is so huge, <a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2015-whats-warming-the-world/">it overwhelms all natural atmospheric forces</a>, including the sun. There is no other plausible explanation for global warming except us.</p>Mon, 13 Jul 2015 21:49:05 GMThttp://www.slate.com/blogs/future_tense/2015/07/13/sunspot_cycles_won_t_cause_a_mini_ice_age_by_2030.htmlEric Holthaus2015-07-13T21:49:05ZTechnologyNo, the Earth Is Not Heading for a “Mini Ice Age”203150713003global warmingclimate changeEric HolthausFuture TenseFuture Tensehttp://www.slate.com/blogs/future_tense/2015/07/13/sunspot_cycles_won_t_cause_a_mini_ice_age_by_2030.htmlfalsefalsefalseSorry skeptics, we're not headed for a "Mini Ice Age."There is no other plausible explanation for global warming except us.Photo by Francois Guillot/AFP/GettyImagesSunspots aren't nearly enough to send us into the deep freeze.China on “Highest Alert” as Super Typhoon Chan-hom Approaches Shanghaihttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2015/07/10/super_typhoon_chan_hom_china_prepares_as_shanghai_faces_record_storm_surge.html
<p>China’s <em>Xinhua</em> state news agency <a href="http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2015-07/10/c_134401931.htm">reports</a> the country was on its “highest alert” as Typhoon Chan-hom approached Shanghai, its largest city, on Friday. Coastal flooding is the biggest risk: Think New York City during Hurricane Sandy. If you’re in Shanghai, now’s a good time to head for higher ground.</p>
<p>In advance of a rare landfall near the city of 23 million people expected on Saturday morning local time, China has begun to hunker down. <em>Xinhua</em> reports 220,000 people have been evacuated in Zhejiang province, just south of Shanghai, where Chan-hom’s landfall and worst conditions are expected. Trains, flights, and shipping routes have all been suspended in one of the world’s most active economic zones.</p>
<p>Chan-hom briefly reached “super typhoon” status on Friday, with sustained winds exceeding 140 mph, but has since begun a weakening trend as it has moved over cooler water closer to shore. The latest weather models are also showing a <a href="https://twitter.com/EricHolthaus/status/619507046606508032">last-minute bend to the right</a> in Chan-hom’s expected track, as well as <a href="https://twitter.com/wxjerdman/status/619533691539324928">a broadening</a> of the storm’s area of strongest winds, which further complicates the outlook for Shanghai.</p>
<p>Still, Chan-hom remains an unusually large typhoon—with cloud cover <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2015/07/07/el_ni_o_typhoons_in_the_pacific_ocean_will_have_global_consequences.html">roughly the size of Alaska</a>. The larger a storm like this is, the more water it can push ashore, boosting the risk of a dangerous storm surge. The latest coastal inundation models show Chan-hom’s storm surge <a href="http://www.artemis.bm/blog/2015/07/10/typhoon-chan-hom-a-wind-and-storm-surge-threat-to-shanghai-china/">could exceed 20 feet</a> around Shanghai, dangerously close to the 22.6-foot height of <a href="http://scenariojournal.com/article/yangtze-river-delta-project/">the city’s downtown seawall barrier</a>, which is supposed to be able to protect against a 1-in-1,000-year flood.</p>
<p>Writing at Weather Underground, meteorologist Jeff Masters <a href="http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=3038">described</a> the threat to Shanghai from Chan-hom, which he says is “one of the strongest typhoons on record for a portion of the country unused to strong typhoons.”</p>
<p>This storm surge will pile up throughout the Yellow Sea, from China to the Korean Peninsula. Since the Yellow Sea is shallow and enclosed on three sides, the potential exists for some of the highest water levels ever recorded along portions of the coast south of Shanghai.</p>
<p>Chan-hom’s landfall will also be poorly timed—with its closest approach to Shanghai coming <a href="http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=3039">right around the time of high tide</a>, potentially producing an all-time record-level storm surge in the city.&nbsp;</p>
<p>Depending on the exact track the storm’s center takes, Chan-hom could end up producing catastrophic flooding in low-lying Shanghai—or not. Shanghai sits in a vulnerable location at the mouth of the Yangtze River, and typically <a href="http://mashable.com/2015/07/10/shanghai-typhoon-chan-hom-surge/">ranks high</a> on lists of cities most at risk of sea level rise. Over the next 50 years, <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/cities-exposed-to-rising-sea-levels-2014-4">if current projections hold</a>, nearly a quarter of its residents and $1.7 trillion in assets will be underwater. In addition to rising seas, Shanghai’s land <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/cwire/2011/09/27/27climatewire-shanghai-struggles-to-save-itself-from-the-s-43368.html?pagewanted=all">is also sinking</a> under the weight of new urban infrastructure and excessive groundwater pumping—accelerating the sea’s yearly advance. Other meteorologists I consulted said Chan-hom's latest expected track—while keeping the worst winds just offshore—may actually worsen coastal flooding by piling up extra water in the Yangtze.</p>
<p>But it’s not all bad news. Masters also notes that Chan-hom’s heavy rains will actually be welcome over the weekend in North Korea, which is experiencing <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/jul/10/north-korea-drought-south-korea-rain">its worst drought in a century</a>.</p>
<p>Mesmerizing views of Chan-hom—as well as the smaller but even stronger Typhoon Nangka, which could make landfall in Japan next week—are being provided by Japan’s new ultra-high-resolution <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2015/07/10/science/An-Image-of-Earth-Every-Ten-Minutes.html?_r=0">Himawari-8 weather satellite</a>, tucked safely 22,000 miles above Earth.</p>Fri, 10 Jul 2015 18:34:52 GMThttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2015/07/10/super_typhoon_chan_hom_china_prepares_as_shanghai_faces_record_storm_surge.htmlEric Holthaus2015-07-10T18:34:52ZbriefingChina on “Highest Alert” as Super Typhoon Chan-hom Approaches Shanghai227150710005chinatyphoonglobal warmingsea level riseclimate changeEric HolthausThe SlatestThe Slatesthttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2015/07/10/super_typhoon_chan_hom_china_prepares_as_shanghai_faces_record_storm_surge.htmlfalsefalsefalseShanghai could get its biggest flood in history as super typhoon approaches:If you’re in Shanghai, now’s a good time to head for higher ground.Photo by STR/AFP/Getty ImagesHuge waves from Typhoon Chan-hom are seen in Wenling, China, on Friday. Chan-hom should make its closest approach to Shanghai, China's biggest city, on Saturday.&nbsp;Bug-Out Scenarioshttp://www.slate.com/articles/health_and_science/science/2015/07/climate_scientists_despair_most_devastating_parts_of_esquire_s_jason_box.html
<p>There’s been a rush of dystopic news on climate change in the past week or so. An <a href="https://twitter.com/EricHolthaus/status/619153541798563840">off-the-charts burst of west winds</a> in the Pacific Ocean is locking in one of the strongest El Ni&ntilde;os on record, <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2015/04/15/_2015_is_hot_a_weirdly_warm_pacific_ocean_is_set_to_make_this_year_the_warmest.html">virtually guaranteeing</a> that 2015 will be <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2015/03/05/el_ni_o_it_s_here_and_it_will_boost_global_warming_to_record_highs.html">the hottest year in human history</a>. The weather system has spawned a rare triplet of <a href="https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/618884919423406080">China-bound typhoons</a>. All-time temperature records were set in Spain, France, the United Kingdom, and Germany in <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2015/07/01/europe_heat_wave_paris_france_and_london_england_approach_all_time_high.html">a crushing heat wave</a>. Widespread wildfire in Alaska <a href="https://twitter.com/EricHolthaus/status/615992480455004160">is burning through permafrost</a>, and lingering smoke from huge Canadian fires gave Minneapolis its worst air quality <a href="http://www.startribune.com/twin-cities-air-unhealthy-for-everyone-as-smoke-drifts-in-from-canadian-wildfires/311910561/">in a decade</a>. In the Pacific Northwest, under intensifying drought, <a href="http://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/environment/burning-rain-forest-raises-concern-about-future/">even the rain forest is on fire</a>.</p>
<p>If this is what climate change looks like already, the future is pretty much screwed, right? Well, maybe. Despite a few <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/future_tense/2014/09/23/kathy_jetnil_kijiner_solastalgia_marshall_islander_s_poem_moves_u_n_climate.html">memorable moments of intense realism</a> on the global stage, world leaders have <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2015/05/20/obama_on_climate_change_denial_and_inaction_endangers_our_national_security.html">essentially done nothing</a>. Existential dread is fairly common among those who work on climate change on a daily basis.</p>
<p>That’s the theme <em>Esquire</em>’s John H. Richardson explored this week in <a href="http://www.esquire.com/news-politics/a36228/ballad-of-the-sad-climatologists-0815/">a fascinating and frank discussion</a> with Jason Box and other climate scientists. I’ve had <a href="https://www.vice.com/read/should-climate-change-stop-us-from-having-babies-305">my own run-ins</a> with climate change despair, and this article strikes me as a fascinating insight into the psychology of an increasingly apocalyptic science. You should read the whole thing, but here are some highlights. Richardson describes Box as “oddly detached from the things he’s saying, laying out one horrible prediction after another without emotion, as if he were an anthropologist regarding the life cycle of a distant civilization.”&nbsp;</p>
<p>But that doesn’t mean Box is unfeeling. In a photo caption, Richardson reveals the money quote highlighting Box’s ever-present malaise: “The customary scientific role is to deal dispassionately with data, but Box says that ‘the shit that’s going down is testing my ability to block it.’ ”</p>
<p>In the face of all this, Box and his family relocated from the United States to Denmark. Richardson explains their decision:</p>
<blockquote>
His daughter is three and a half, and Denmark is a great place to be in an uncertain world—there’s plenty of water, a high-tech agriculture system, increasing adoption of wind power, and plenty of geographic distance from the coming upheavals. “Especially when you consider the beginning of the flood of desperate people from conflict and drought,” he says, returning to his obsession with how profoundly changed our civilization will be.
</blockquote>
<p>In fact, Box often thinks about the profound planetary changes that are already underway:</p>
<blockquote>
His home state of Colorado isn’t doing so great, either. “The forests are dying, and they will not return. The trees won’t return to a warming climate. We’re going to see megafires even more, that’ll be the new one—megafires until those forests are cleared.”
</blockquote>
<p>But the real success of the Richardson piece is the way he depicts the internal struggle Box deals with on a daily basis.</p>
<blockquote>
“But I—I—I’m not letting it get to me. If I spend my energy on despair, I won’t be thinking about opportunities to minimize the problem.”
</blockquote>
<blockquote>
His insistence on this point is very unconvincing, especially given the solemnity that shrouds him like a dark coat. But the most interesting part is the insistence itself—the desperate need not to be disturbed by something so disturbing.
</blockquote>
<p>In a moment of candor I hadn’t seen before, Box revealed to Richardson that he’s already preparing for the worst:</p>
<blockquote>
“In Denmark,” Box says, “we have the resilience, so I’m not that worried about my daughter’s livelihood going forward. But that doesn’t stop me from strategizing about how to safeguard her future—I’ve been looking at property in Greenland. As a possible bug-out scenario.”
</blockquote>
<p>Despite what the <em>Esquire</em> article says, Box, whose work I have <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/future_tense/2014/09/16/jason_box_s_research_into_greenland_s_dark_snow_raises_more_concerns_about.html">previously covered </a>on <strong><em>Slate</em></strong>, is a bit of an outlier among climate scientists. Most of them aren’t as willing to talk about the plausibility of nightmare scenarios. Still, his frankness on climate change is welcome.</p>
<p>Ultimately, what scientists are after is truth, even if that truth is personally devastating. For that reason, being a climate scientist is probably one of the most psychologically challenging jobs of the 21<sup>st</sup> century. As the <em>Esquire</em> article asks: How do you keep going when the end of human civilization is your day job?</p>
<p>I reached out to a few well-known climate scientists for their reactions to the article.</p>
<p>Michael Mann, a Pennsylvania State University meteorologist whom Richardson quotes, told me, “I would emphasize that it isn’t too late to act, despite the sense one might get from the article. Our only obstacle at present is willpower.” When asked about how many climate scientists struggle with psychological dread over their studies, Mann said, “I honestly don’t know how many of my colleagues reflect on the matter. But those who don’t ought to. What we’re studying and learning is more than just science. It has ramifications for the future of humanity and this planet.”</p>
<p>By far the most engaging response was from Katharine Hayhoe, a rising star in the climate science community after her work engaging evangelical Christians on the issue was profiled in a Showtime documentary <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/bad_astronomy/2014/03/28/years_of_living_dangerously_showtime_climate_change_documentary.html">last year</a>. <em>Time</em> <a href="http://time.com/70881/katharine-hayhoe-2014-time-100/">named her</a> one of the 100 most influential people on the planet for 2014.</p>
<p>Hayhoe now lives in Texas, precisely because of its climate vulnerability. Hayhoe said Texas’ “strident political opposition to the reality” makes it “ground zero for climate change,” which her work embraces. “If I personally can make a difference, I feel like Texas is where I can do it.” But she’s quick to applaud Box’s work and doesn’t criticize his family’s decision to relocate.</p>
<p>In the back of her mind, Hayhoe said she has also factored in humanity’s lack of progress on climate change in her family’s future plans. Like Box and his family, Hayhoe also has a bug-out scenario: “If we continue on our current pathway, Canada will be home for us, long-term. But the majority of people in the world don’t have an exit strategy. … So that’s who I’m here trying to help.”</p>Thu, 09 Jul 2015 23:50:56 GMThttp://www.slate.com/articles/health_and_science/science/2015/07/climate_scientists_despair_most_devastating_parts_of_esquire_s_jason_box.htmlEric Holthaus2015-07-09T23:50:56ZHow do climate scientists cope with existential dread?Health and ScienceThe Most Devastating Parts of
<em>Esquire</em>’s Story About Climate Scientists’ Despair100150709016climate changeEric HolthausSciencehttp://www.slate.com/articles/health_and_science/science/2015/07/climate_scientists_despair_most_devastating_parts_of_esquire_s_jason_box.htmlfalsefalsefalseHow climate scientists cope with existential dread. By @EricHolthaus:They have the most psychologically challenging jobs of the 21st century.Photo by Herman Verwey/Foto24/ Gallo Images/Getty ImagesA man cools down during a heatwave at the Sunnyside swimming pool in Pretoria, South Africa, February 11, 2015.Surge of Typhoons Will Give Record-Setting El Ni&ntilde;o a Big Boosthttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2015/07/07/el_ni_o_typhoons_in_the_pacific_ocean_will_have_global_consequences.html
<p>It’s the height of summer in the Northern Hemisphere, and <a href="http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cag/time-series/global/nhem/ocean/1/5/1880-2015">the oceans</a> have never been hotter. What’s more, there’s increasing evidence that a warming feedback loop has been kicked off in recent days—which could quickly ramp up El Ni&ntilde;o.</p>
<p>If you’re not a seasoned weather nerd, the feedback loop—warm water begets typhoons beget weird trade winds beget more warm water—is a bit tricky to follow in charts and maps. But its effects on El Ni&ntilde;o could produce global ramifications.</p>
<p><em>Credit: Cameron Beccario/<a href="http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-225.73,22.20,512">earth.nullschool.net</a></em></p>
<p>Here’s how it works: The El Ni&ntilde;o weather pattern is a joint effort between the ocean and the atmosphere, and this week’s surge showcases the linkage.</p>
<p>El Ni&ntilde;o means the tropical Pacific is warmer than normal, which improves the chances that typhoons will form. This week, a series of typhoons <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/archive/ensowrap_20150707.pdf">on both sides of the equator</a> are helping to <a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-07-07/el-nino-gets-reinforced-by-cyclones-as-event-to-last-until-2016">reinforce</a> a big burst of <a href="https://twitter.com/RobElvington/status/618065325964201984">westerly winds</a> along the equator. These westerly wind bursts are a hallmark of El Ni&ntilde;o, and help push subsurface warm water toward the coast of South America. If enough warm water butts up against Peru, the <a href="http://ww2010.atmos.uiuc.edu/(Gl)/guides/mtr/eln/upw.rxml">normal cold water ocean current</a> there can get shut off, exacerbating the pattern.</p>
<p>Exactly how this all gets kicked off is <a href="http://www.goes-r.gov/users/comet/tropical/textbook_2nd_edition/navmenu.php_tab_5_page_2.1.3.htm">an area of active research</a>, but it’s clear that big El Ni&ntilde;os need deviant trade winds to maintain the feedback loop. During especially strong El Ni&ntilde;os, like this year’s <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2015/05/14/el_ni_o_2015_largest_ever.html">promises to be</a>, the trade winds can sometimes reverse direction—and this week’s <a href="https://twitter.com/hombredeltiempo/status/618423895155179525">off-the-charts</a> wind surge is <a href="https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/616344964226793474">at record-strength</a> for so early in an El Ni&ntilde;o event. Since all this takes place in the tropical Pacific Ocean—the planet’s biggest bathtub—a fully mature El Ni&ntilde;o has the power to <a href="http://www.slate.com/articles/technology/future_tense/2014/04/el_nino_2014_2015_what_the_weather_pattern_means_for_60_plus_places.html">shift rainfall odds worldwide</a> and <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2015/03/05/el_ni_o_it_s_here_and_it_will_boost_global_warming_to_record_highs.html">boost global temperatures</a>. That’s exactly what’s <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2015/04/15/_2015_is_hot_a_weirdly_warm_pacific_ocean_is_set_to_make_this_year_the_warmest.html">happening this year</a>.</p>
<p>As proof: An area of the central Pacific, straddling the equator, is now the warmest on record for this time of year, <a href="https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/616986938109755392">crushing the previous record</a>. So far, the 2015 El Ni&ntilde;o is strengthening at a rate equal to, if not slightly greater than some of the strongest El Ni&ntilde;os since comprehensive ocean recordkeeping <a href="http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/gcos_wgsp/Timeseries/Data/nino34.long.anom.data">began in 1870</a>.</p>
<p>On Tuesday, even as the official U.S. El Ni&ntilde;o blog <a href="http://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/keep-calm-and-stop-obsessing-over-weekly-changes-enso">encouraged</a> weather watchers to “keep calm,” <a href="https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/618527648185196544">new forecast data</a> compiled by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration gave the clearest indication yet that this year’s El Ni&ntilde;o is heading for a new all-time record. Tuesday’s data <a href="https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/618531246264741889">factors in</a> the initial stages of the Pacific’s westerly wind burst in June, boosting <a href="https://twitter.com/EricHolthaus/status/618533276093947905">the likely peak water temperature</a> later this year.</p>
<p>That warm water has already been spawning typhoons at a breakneck pace, with three storms currently bound for Asian shores. The <a href="https://twitter.com/UWCIMSS/status/618414201778798592">biggest of the three</a>, Typhoon Chan-hom, <a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2015/07/07/a-train-of-typhoons-is-chugging-across-the-pacific-ocean-and-landfalls-loom-for-china/">threatens Taiwan and mainland China</a> later this week. Chan-hom’s massive cloud shield is now roughly the size of Alaska. So far, 2015 has been nearly <a href="http://models.weatherbell.com/tropical.php">three times as active as normal</a> in the Pacific Ocean, and has already featured <a href="http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=2992">more storms of Category 5 strength</a> than typically occur in an entire season, the bulk of which usually falls between July and November.</p>
<p>This week is poised to get even busier, with one weather model predicting off-the-charts activity over the next several days:</p>
<p>The new Himawari-8, a <a href="http://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2015/07/07/national/state-art-himawari-8-weather-satellite-goes-active/?utm_source=rss&amp;utm_medium=rss&amp;utm_campaign=state-art-himawari-8-weather-satellite-goes-active#.VZwraRNViko">Japanese weather satellite</a> that officially <a href="http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/goes/blog/archives/18804">came online Tuesday</a>, is boasting some of the best space-based views of the Pacific typhoons ever seen. Meteorologists are <a href="https://twitter.com/NWSOPC/status/618474897904402432">ogling</a> <a href="http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/goes/blog/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/H8_16PANEL_7July2015_0400_0810anim.gif">the new images</a>, which come as rapidly as once every two minutes, making for <a href="http://ftp.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/misc/GOES-R/HIMAWARI/HIMAWARI_AHI_0p64_VIS-Red_20150707.gif">impressively smooth animations</a> (especially when compared with <a href="https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/618233937073061888">traditional imagery</a>). If all goes well, the United States will have a new weather satellite with similar capabilities <a href="http://www.goes-r.gov/mission/mission.html">in early 2016</a>.</p>Tue, 07 Jul 2015 22:42:02 GMThttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2015/07/07/el_ni_o_typhoons_in_the_pacific_ocean_will_have_global_consequences.htmlEric Holthaus2015-07-07T22:42:02ZbriefingSurge of Typhoons Will Give Record-Setting El Ni&ntilde;o a Big Boost227150707007el ninotyphoonEric HolthausThe SlatestThe Slatesthttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2015/07/07/el_ni_o_typhoons_in_the_pacific_ocean_will_have_global_consequences.htmlfalsefalsefalseA Pacific typhoon feedback loop is making an all-time record El Niño more likely:...with a side of global weather chaos, please.Photo by JAY DIRECTO/AFP/Getty ImagesA string of Pacific typhoons is pushing El Ni&ntilde;o to new heights this week. Here, fishing boats are anchored at the mouth of a river feeding Manila Bay on May 10, 2015, as Typhoon Noul approached.Study Finds Fourth of July Fireworks Are Breathtaking in More Ways Than Onehttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2015/07/03/fourth_of_july_fireworks_are_a_big_source_of_air_pollution_study_finds.html
<p>Fourth of July is a boon for daredevils. Even ignoring the widespread drought in the West, it’s the <a href="http://www.standard.net/Health/2014/07/03/firework-safety">No. 1</a> firefighting day of the year. <a href="http://www.politico.com/agenda/story/2015/06/fireworks-lobby-to-obama-enough-with-all-the-rules-000122?hp=r4_4">Last year</a>, more than 10,000 people were admitted to the hospital for fireworks-related injuries—with intoxicated underage boys a major <a href="http://abcnews.go.com/Health/drunk-underage-boys-visit-er-july-4th/story?id=13966769">accident-prone demographic</a>.</p>
<p>Turns out, all those backyard pyromaniacs are contributing to a big health risk for those of us sitting back in the lawn chairs, too.</p>
<p>A <a href="http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1352231015301369">new study</a> shows Fourth of July fireworks extravaganzas release huge amounts of pollution into the air. If the weather conditions are right, it’s enough to cause a health risk.</p>
<p>“I don’t think people in general see fireworks as a source of air pollution,” said the study’s lead author, Dian Seidel of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Air Resources Laboratory in College Park, Maryland. But think about it: “You’ve got these explosives going off in the atmosphere, which, essentially, I think is a source of emissions.”</p>
<p>Seidel and her colleagues at NOAA conducted a statistical evaluation of 315 air-quality-monitoring sites nationwide between 1999 and 2013, and they <a href="http://phys.org/news/2015-06-nationwide-short-term-spike-july-particulate.html">found a consistent spike</a> in toxic levels of fine particulate matter to unhealthy levels at 10 sites, including Chicago, Los Angeles, Las Vegas, and Seattle. Even nationally averaged, fine particulate matter pollution more than doubles on July 4<sup>th</sup>.</p>
<p>They aren’t the first researchers to link fireworks and pollution: In 2013, meteorologist Cliff Mass chronicled troubling <a href="http://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2013/07/fireworks-smoke-air-quality-alert.html">fireworks-related pollution spikes</a> in the Seattle area and noted that due to particularly stagnant atmospheric conditions, one monitoring station in Tacoma, Washington briefly rose “close to Beijing levels.”</p>
<p>Could one day actually make a difference in Fourth of July revelers’ health? Maybe. A <a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/06/23/air-pollution-heart-attack_n_883199.html">2011 study</a> of fine particulate pollution spikes in Italy—exactly the kind studied by Seidel and Mass—was linked to an uptick in hospital admission for heart attacks. Exposure to high levels of fine particulate pollution can result in decreased lung function even in healthy people, <a href="http://www.epa.gov/airquality/particlepollution/health.html">according to</a> the Environmental Protection Agency.</p>
<p>The Obama administration <a href="http://www.epa.gov/groundlevelozone/actions.html">has proposed an updated rule</a> on ground-level ozone, <a href="http://www.epa.gov/groundlevelozone/pdfs/20141125fs-overview.pdf">based on</a> new science, that would clamp down on emissions from cars, power plants, and factories. Recently, there’s been <a href="http://www.politico.com/agenda/story/2015/06/fireworks-lobby-to-obama-enough-with-all-the-rules-000122?hp=r4_4">pushback</a> from the now billion-dollar-per-year pyrotechnics industry, which is likely overstating the proposed rule's <a href="http://downtrend.com/robertgehl/no-obamas-not-going-to-ban-fireworks-so-lets-get-back-to-reality/">potential impact on fireworks</a>—which are typically not subject to Clean Air Act standards.</p>
<p>Current air pollution regulations typically allow for brief spikes like the ones Seidel’s team found, although a few state and local air quality agencies, like those <a href="http://www.clarkcountynv.gov/news/Pages/AirQualityAdvisoryIssuedforSmokeandOzone.aspx">in Las Vegas, Nevada</a> and <a href="http://lincoln.ne.gov/city/mayor/media/2014/070114a.htm">Lincoln, Nebraska</a>, have issued pre-emptive advisories in the past warning of the dangers of breathing in too much fireworks smoke. Both cities did so again this year.</p>
<p>But most municipalities don’t officially consider fireworks an air pollution danger. A <a href="https://www.federalregister.gov/articles/2007/03/22/E7-5156/treatment-of-data-influenced-by-exceptional-events#h-87">2007 rule</a> by the EPA classified fireworks displays into the category of “exceptional events,” one that is “not reasonably controllable or preventable.” <strong><em>Slate</em></strong> contacted the EPA for comment on the new study, and received the following statement:</p>
<p>Fireworks are sources of fine particle pollution, and past air quality monitoring has shown spikes of particle pollution levels in some communities as a result of large-scale fireworks displays. These spikes can be above the level of EPA's 24-hour health standard.</p>
<p>EPA recognizes the importance of fireworks on the Fourth of July and other significant holidays, and EPA's regulations allow states to request that related PM spikes not be counted in determining whether an area has violated the standard. Short-term exposure to fine particle pollution (hours to days) can pose health concerns, especially for groups of people more sensitive to PM2.5 pollution. So we caution those people to enjoy fireworks from a distance, and from upwind, to reduce their exposure.&nbsp;</p>
<p>So basically, as long as you aren’t downwind of the fireworks on Saturday night, you should probably be OK?</p>Fri, 03 Jul 2015 07:43:00 GMThttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2015/07/03/fourth_of_july_fireworks_are_a_big_source_of_air_pollution_study_finds.htmlEric Holthaus2015-07-03T07:43:00ZbriefingStudy: Fireworks Can Be Bad for Your Health—and We’re Not Talking About Burns227150703001fourth of julyfireworkspollutionEric HolthausThe SlatestThe Slatesthttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2015/07/03/fourth_of_july_fireworks_are_a_big_source_of_air_pollution_study_finds.htmlfalsefalsefalseFourth of July fireworks are breathtaking. No, really: Don't breathe that smoke.Gasp!Photo by Joe Raedle/Getty ImagesGasp! A new study shows Independence Day fireworks are a big source of air pollution nationwide. Here, spectators watch a 4th of July fireworks display over Miami in 2014.French Toast: Temperatures Surge as Historic Heat Wave Hits Western Europehttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2015/07/01/europe_heat_wave_paris_france_and_london_england_approach_all_time_high.html
<p>The temperature <a href="https://twitter.com/EricHolthaus/status/616272316268347393">hit 100</a> degrees Fahrenheit in Paris on Wednesday. And then it kept rising.</p>
<p>The official high <a href="https://twitter.com/meteofrance/status/616268314147426304">was 103.5 degrees</a>, just short of the hottest day ever recorded in the French capital. Electricity fluctuations caused by the excessive temperatures briefly blacked out power for 830,000 households <a href="http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/international/world-news/heat-knocks-out-power-for-830000-households-in-western-france/articleshow/47891826.cms">on Tuesday night</a>. Near France’s Atlantic coast in the southwestern part of the country, the <em>Guardian</em> <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/jul/01/weather-alerts-across-western-europe-as-heatwave-sets-in">reports</a> temperatures rose as high as 108 degrees on Tuesday. I wasn’t able to independently confirm that figure, though short-term weather models <a href="https://twitter.com/WSI_EuroEnergy/status/615829444729675776">did show</a> that such a high temperature—more typical of California’s Death Valley at this time of year—was expected.</p>
<p>“But it’s summer,” you say. Yes, but this isn’t normal. The weather site MeteoFrance called for “special vigilance”—<a href="http://www.meteofrance.fr/actualites/26505754-temperatures-remarquablement-elevees-sur-la-france">warning</a> that the current heat wave could top out above the one in July 2006, arguably the hottest <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2006_European_heat_wave">in the nation’s history</a>.</p>
<p>The &quot;misery index&quot;, <a href="http://earth.nullschool.net/#2015/07/01/1500Z/wind/surface/level/overlay=misery_index/orthographic=5.06,46.68,2048">an indication</a> of how hot it feels outside that factors in both temperature and humidity, was well above normal across much of Western Europe on Wednesday:</p>
<p>Another heat wave in August 2003, centered in France, was the deadliest in world history—more than 70,000 people died across Europe that month. It was also the most intense European heat wave in terms of temperatures in <a href="http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v432/n7017/full/nature03089.html">at least 500 years</a>. Although air conditioning is still relatively rare across most of Europe, a repeat of 2003 isn’t likely, even if the temperatures this week turn out to be hotter. France instituted <a href="http://www.france24.com/en/20150701-france-paris-heat-wave-alert-deadly-2003-summer-guidelines">strict heat wave guidelines</a> after the 2003 disaster that are <a href="http://www.france24.com/en/20150701-france-paris-heat-wave-alert-deadly-2003-summer-guidelines">widely credited</a> with a significant reduction in mortality during a 2006 heat wave. That emergency plan, <a href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2219563/">which includes</a> making daily phone calls to hundreds of thousands of especially vulnerable people, is in place again this week.</p>
<p>This rapid-fire sequence of extreme heat waves is not a trend that is going to end any time soon. A study <a href="http://www.climatecentral.org/news/europe-deadly-heat-10x-more-likely-18418">late last year</a> found that in just the last 10 to 15 years heat waves like this have become 10 times more likely—mostly due to human-caused climate change. On Wednesday, the World Meteorological Organization and the World Health Organization, both United Nations organizations, issued their first-ever <a href="https://www.wmo.int/media/content/wmo-who-issue-guidance-heat-health-warning-systems">joint guidelines</a> for dealing with the expected rise in heat waves and their increasing impact on public health.</p>
<p>“Heatwaves have emerged as an important hydrometeorological hazard and will remain so, given projected changes in the frequency of extreme heat events associated with human-induced climate change,” the U.N. text warned.</p>
<p>This week’s exceptional heat isn’t just affecting France. In London, the <em>Guardian</em> was forced to briefly pause <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/live/2015/jul/01/heatwave-live-britain-hottest-day-2015#block-5593fdf4e4b03edf9cb7bd5f">its heat wave live blog</a> to switch to backup servers “because our main ones have overheated.” Nationwide, the speed of British trains <a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/road-and-rail-transport/11707471/Sizzling-heat-could-derail-commuters-Network-Rail-warns.html">was reduced</a> to prevent the rails from buckling under the heat. Wednesday was <a href="https://twitter.com/bbcweather/status/616254520302137344">the hottest July day</a> in United Kingdom history, and temperatures <a href="http://www.meteoalarm.eu/">are expected</a> to rise above 100 in parts of Spain, Italy, Germany, and Belgium later this week. An <a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2015/06/30/europe-is-just-beginning-a-sweltering-multi-day-heatwave-this-is-whats-behind-it/">especially persistent atmospheric blocking pattern</a>, known as <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/future_tense/2014/11/10/the_omega_block_your_wintry_companion_for_at_least_the_next_two_weeks.html">an Omega block</a>, means warm air will continue to flow northward from northern Africa for at least the next five to seven days.</p>
<p>The current European warm streak is the third notable heat wave worldwide so far this summer. A May heat wave <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2015/05/27/india_s_heat_wave_more_than_1000_people_have_died_in_record_high_temperatures.html">in India</a> and one in June <a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-33274171">in Pakistan</a>&nbsp;now rank <a href="http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=3031">among the 10 deadliest</a> in world history. Other heat waves <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2015/06/30/alaska_wildfires_climate_change_is_helping_spark_big_fires_at_a_record_pace.html">in Alaska</a> and other parts of the <a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2015/06/29/sleepy-hollow-fire-rages-in-central-washington-amid-record-breaking-northwest-heat/">western U.S.</a>, as well as <a href="http://www.news.com.au/technology/environment/weather-records-set-to-tumble-with-temperatures-in-wa-tipped-to-hit-50c/story-e6frflp0-1227194120324">Australia</a>, China, <a href="http://www.straitstimes.com/world/sizzling-in-singapore-and-around-the-world-as-el-nino-strikes">Southeast Asia</a>, and <a href="http://www.wsj.com/articles/venezuela-to-begin-nationwide-power-rationing-1430247865">South America</a>, have also broken records this year.</p>Wed, 01 Jul 2015 21:48:17 GMThttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2015/07/01/europe_heat_wave_paris_france_and_london_england_approach_all_time_high.htmlEric Holthaus2015-07-01T21:48:17ZbriefingFrench Toast: Temperatures Surge as Historic Heat Wave Hits Western Europe227150701008heat waveeuropefrancelondonparisEric HolthausThe SlatestThe Slatesthttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2015/07/01/europe_heat_wave_paris_france_and_london_england_approach_all_time_high.htmlfalsefalsefalseWow. 108°F in France. #climatechangeThe temperature hit 108°F in France. DangggggPhoto by MIGUEL MEDINA/AFP/Getty ImagesTwo women sunbathe on the grass in a park in Saint-Cloud, west of Paris, on July 1, 2015—the second hottest day in Paris history.Alaska’s Current Off-the-Charts Wildfire Situation, in One Maphttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2015/06/30/alaska_wildfires_climate_change_is_helping_spark_big_fires_at_a_record_pace.html
<p>Alaskans can take a peek out the window this week to catch a glimpse of climate change. It seems <a href="http://smoke.arsc.edu/current_fires.html">the entire state</a> is on fire, and those fires are burning up land <a href="https://twitter.com/NWSAlaska/status/615570794232606722">at a pace far beyond that of 2004</a>, the previous <a href="https://dec.alaska.gov/air/am/2004_wf_sum.htm">record-setting year</a>.</p>
<p>Here are <a href="http://www.nifc.gov/nicc/sitreprt.pdf">the stats</a>:</p>
<ul>
<li>Wildfires in Alaska have burned more than 1.25 million acres so far this year. That’s an area 32 times the size of Washington, D.C.</li>
<li>3,343 firefighters are currently working in Alaska. That’s one-third of all the wildland firefighters currently tasked in the United States.</li>
<li>85 percent of the area burned nationwide this year by wildfire has been in Alaska.</li>
</ul>
<p>The state of Alaska is at its highest level of alert. Its Tuesday wildfire <a href="http://fire.ak.blm.gov/content/aicc/sitreport/current.pdf">situation report</a> was 65 pages long. And the problem is getting worse: Wildfires now burn <a href="https://www.hcn.org/articles/more-of-alaskas-forests-are-burning-not-just-due-to-climate-change">five times more acreage each year</a> in our northernmost state than they did in 1943.</p>
<p>Since the state is so huge, firefighters are often spread few and far between—and fires that aren’t immediately threatening human habitation are often left to burn. But some of the state’s most densely populated areas, like Fairbanks, are seeing an especially pronounced fire boom. Several factors are at play: For instance, there is more fuel (trees, grass, etc.) to burn, thanks to fire-suppression policies, and human-sparked blazes are on the rise. And, of course, it’s all <a href="https://www.hcn.org/articles/more-of-alaskas-forests-are-burning-not-just-due-to-climate-change">compounded by the climate trend</a> toward hotter and drier weather.</p>
<p>Last year was Alaska’s <a href="http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cag/time-series/us/tavg/12/50/0/12/1895-2014?base_prd=true&amp;begbaseyear=1901&amp;endbaseyear=2000">warmest on record</a>, and last month was <a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2015/05/26/alaska-recorded-its-hottest-temperature-so-early-in-the-season-over-memorial-day-weekend/">its warmest May</a> by far—more than 7 degrees Fahrenheit above the long-term average. Alaska now sticks out like <a href="http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/IOTD/view.php?id=85932">a bright red sore spot</a> on world temperature maps. That remarkable warmth has set the stage for a remarkably disastrous fire season, melting off <a href="http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2015/02/150212-iditarod-dogs-sled-race-alaska-global-warming-science/">this year’s meager snowpack</a> and turning vast tracts of forest into kindling.</p>
<p>A <a href="http://www.climatecentral.org/news/alaska-entering-new-era-for-wildfires-19146">new report</a> by Climate Central shows that Alaska’s fire season has lengthened by 35 days since 1950. That’s increased the chances for huge fire seasons like this year’s—in which fires are increasingly <a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2015/06/24/more-than-200-fires-are-burning-in-alaska-right-now-heres-why-thats-a-big-deal/">burning through the permafrost itself</a>. That means Alaska is <a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2015/06/29/over-a-million-acres-have-burned-in-alaska-wildfires-this-month/">on the verge of tipping</a> from a net sink of greenhouse gases to a net source, setting off a spiral: Global warming begets more fire begets more global warming. As I reported in a <a href="http://www.slate.com/articles/technology/future_tense/2015/03/climate_change_is_already_affecting_alaska_s_weather.html">lengthy dive on Alaska’s rapidly changing climate</a> earlier this year, a cruel irony is that since Alaska’s wildfire-fighting service is funded by the state’s significant oil reserves, a dip in oil prices this year means the state is attacking this record-setting fire season with fewer resources.</p>
<p>And it’s not just Alaska. If you broaden the view <a href="https://twitter.com/EricHolthaus/status/615950065077608448">to all of North America</a>, vast stretches of northern Canada are also on fire at the moment—including <a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-05-26/alberta-fires-keep-10-of-canada-s-oil-sands-down-for-third-day">the area</a> around the Alberta tar sands oil fields. A huge plume of smoke has stretched as far south as Arkansas, <a href="https://twitter.com/EpicCosmos/status/615675598875201536">reddening sunsets</a> and producing <a href="https://twitter.com/earthskyscience/status/615861848836055040">eerie views of the moon</a> across the Midwest in recent days.</p>
<p><a href="http://www.ciffc.ca/firewire/current.php">Data from</a> the Canadian Interagency Forest Fire Centre shows nearly 3 million acres have burned so far this year in Canada—also far above long-term averages—with the Northwest Territories, Saskatchewan, and Manitoba at the highest level of alert.</p>Tue, 30 Jun 2015 20:12:14 GMThttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2015/06/30/alaska_wildfires_climate_change_is_helping_spark_big_fires_at_a_record_pace.htmlEric Holthaus2015-06-30T20:12:14ZbriefingAlaska’s Current Off-the-Charts Wildfire Situation, in One Map227150630009alaskawildfiresclimate changeglobal warmingEric HolthausThe SlatestThe Slatesthttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2015/06/30/alaska_wildfires_climate_change_is_helping_spark_big_fires_at_a_record_pace.htmlfalsefalsefalseEverything you need to know about Alaska's current plague of wildfires, in one map:Alaska, meet global warming. (Hi!)Alaska Division of ForestryThere are so many fires burning up Alaska right now, they don’t even fit on the map.&nbsp;Stop Buying in Bulkhttp://www.slate.com/articles/business/moneybox/2015/06/bulk_shopping_creates_food_waste_shop_more_often_instead.html
<p>If you’re like me, you writhe in guilt-ridden anguish each time you forget to bring your canvas tote to the grocery store. But in the rare times we do remember our reusable bags, Americans tend not to think much about what we actually put <em>inside</em> them, according to a new survey. The takeaway: We waste a <em>lot</em> of extra food (and money) simply because <em>we don’t shop often enough</em>.</p>
<p>As big of a problem as it is, food waste rarely makes the news. There was some buzz <a href="http://www.motherjones.com/mixed-media/2015/05/france-supermarket-food-waste-ban">a while back</a> about France’s ban on grocery stores throwing out edible food, but the numbers show that this is only <a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2012/08/22/how-food-actually-gets-wasted-in-the-united-states/">a small part of the problem</a>. Americans <a href="http://www.newswise.com/articles/americans-may-be-wasting-more-food-than-they-think">vastly underestimate</a> their own food waste, which turns out to be <a href="http://www.smithsonianmag.com/smart-news/heres-why-americans-waste-so-much-food-180955569/?no-ist">driven mostly by</a> a desire to avoid getting sick—even though saving money is also a top priority. That means we end up stocking our shelves with more than we need to ensure we’ll always have something fresh when we want it.</p>
<p><a href="http://www.kcet.org/living/food/food-rant/buying-in-bulk-wastes-more.html">That sort of behavior</a> is encouraged at bulk stores like Costco and Walmart, which operate on the myth that buying in bulk helps you save money. But <a href="http://uanews.org/story/ua-food-study-shop-more-waste-less">new evidence</a> shows that the push for huge quantities of cheap, high-quality food has caused us to be more wasteful than ever. Simply put: We’re throwing away more in food waste than we are saving by buying in bulk.</p>
<p>“People almost entirely neglect the cost of the food they’re throwing away from their kitchen,” says Victoria Ligon of the University of Arizona, who led the new study. “If you throw away a meal because you’ve eaten out when you weren’t planning to, the cost of that restaurant meal is higher than you think. People don’t account for that at all.”</p>
<p>Ligon’s <a href="http://uanews.org/story/ua-food-study-shop-more-waste-less">study</a> examined shopping patterns of several households through in-depth interviews and food diaries. The results found that people are generally too ambitious in their grocery shopping—buying ingredients for meals days or weeks in advance—when our brains and appetites are hard-wired for little more than the next meal. Our lives get busy, we may schedule a few impromptu evenings out with friends, and suddenly we have a pile of furry cucumbers at the bottom of the fridge. As most people who have ever cooked a meal know, planning meals days in advance is almost impossible.</p>
<p>“Every single person I talked to in my study felt very uncomfortable at the idea of throwing away food,” says Ligon. “We have very strong norms in our culture around not wasting.” But Ligon says people shouldn’t feel guilty: “This is not a problem that stems from individual apathy. It’s a structural problem.”</p>
<p>The bulk stores know this—their whole business model is to trick us into buying more than we need, and all the better if the food seems healthy and good for the planet. During a <a href="http://www.thenation.com/blog/209281/here-are-all-reasons-walmarts-business-not-sustainable">green push</a> several years ago, Walmart became the biggest grocery store chain in the country. In May, Costco—that wonderland of <a href="http://www.costco.com/Tanka-Spicy-Buffalo-Bars-144-Total-Bars.product.100022551.html">9-pound cases of bison jerky</a> and terrier-sized <a href="http://www.costco.com/Red-Vines-Original-Red-Licorice-5.5lbs-.product.100113153.html">tubs of licorice</a>—<a href="http://www.marketwatch.com/story/costco-may-already-be-us-leader-in-organic-food-2015-05-29">became the leading purveyor of organic grocery items</a>, dethroning Whole Foods. Walmart’s Sam’s Club stores, which operate on a similar membership-based, it-takes-two-people-to-push-a-cart style of warehouse retail, is reportedly <a href="http://www.seattletimes.com/business/retail/costco-becomes-largest-organic-grocer-analysts-say/">moving in a similar direction</a> and greatly expanding its organic offerings. Organic food is <a href="http://america.aljazeera.com/opinions/2015/5/organic-is-going-mainstream.html">becoming big business</a>, at least partly because stores are able to charge higher markups.</p>
<p>Which brings us back to food waste. As much as 40 percent of America’s food supply <a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/bw/articles/2013-01-10/living-in-the-united-states-of-food-waste">gets thrown away every day</a>, with perishable items like dairy, breads, meats, fruits, and vegetables leading the way. The total annual bill of food waste for consumers is a whopping <a href="http://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0127881">$162 billion</a>, which works out to about $1,300 to $2,300 <a href="http://www.motherjones.com/environment/2015/06/youre-wasting-more-food-you-think">per family per year</a>. Clearly, that much food <a href="http://modernfarmer.com/2013/09/next-food-revolution-youre-eating/">could feed a lot of people</a> who otherwise go hungry.</p>
<p>But even that huge sum doesn’t factor in knock-on effects: Wasting food means we’re throwing away money, but we’re also <a href="http://www.fastcoexist.com/1680494/the-environmental-impact-of-wasted-food">throwing away</a> 35 percent of the nation’s fresh water supply and 300 million gallons of oil each year. That makes tackling food waste the low-hanging fruit amid <a href="http://www.slate.com/topics/t/thirsty_west.html">growing concern over drought</a> and climate change. <a href="http://www.fastcoexist.com/1680494/the-environmental-impact-of-wasted-food">Next to paper and yard trimmings</a>, food takes up the biggest share of the nation’s landfills—and contributes about 20 percent of <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/future_tense/2015/01/15/forget_the_oil_industry_s_methane_obama_should_crack_down_on_cows.html">the country’s methane emissions</a>.</p>
<p>Ligon thinks she’s found the start of a solution: Just shop more often.</p>
<p>“When you’re talking about food, feeling really plays a big role. Things like predicting how hungry you are, your appetite, and what you’re in the mood for—in the future—turn out to be very challenging,” Ligon says. “If you’re shopping more frequently, you can purchase food that is meant to be eaten in a shorter time frame.”</p>
<p>But there’s a catch. Ligon’s research also revealed that people regularly buy groceries from three to seven different stores. With so many choices, there’s an incentive to overbuy at each stop—especially if you don’t plan on being back for a few days. We’ve all done this: You go into Trader Joe’s planning to buy some nectarines, and you come out with an armful of specialty potato chips and four frozen pizzas.</p>
<p>Ligon says same-day food delivery services <a href="http://www.theverge.com/2015/6/5/8737491/alone-with-amazonfresh-in-the-city">like AmazonFresh</a> (which charges $299 per year for free deliveries over $50 and provides you with a <a href="http://www.theverge.com/2014/4/4/5582932/amazon-announces-dash-barcode-scanner-microphone-for-amazonfresh">magic wand</a> by which you can place your orders) and soon-to-emerge smartfridges that suggest recipes for you based on your food that’s about to go bad (<a href="http://www.slate.com/articles/technology/technology/2013/01/smart_appliances_a_washer_that_connects_to_the_internet_and_other_amazingly.html">like this one Samsung showcased in 2013</a>) might be among the most promising ways to cut down on waste, with big rewards in water, energy, and climate change—and money.</p>
<p>After all, you can’t waste what you don’t buy in the first place.</p>Tue, 30 Jun 2015 09:45:00 GMThttp://www.slate.com/articles/business/moneybox/2015/06/bulk_shopping_creates_food_waste_shop_more_often_instead.htmlEric Holthaus2015-06-30T09:45:00ZIt ends up wasting food and money. Shop more frequently instead.BusinessThere’s an Easy Way to Waste Less Food: Shop More Often100150630005businessfoodenvironmentcostcoEric HolthausMoneyboxhttp://www.slate.com/articles/business/moneybox/2015/06/bulk_shopping_creates_food_waste_shop_more_often_instead.htmlfalsefalsefalseThere’s an easy way to waste less food. Stop buying in bulk.Say no to Costco. Shop more often instead.Photo by Noel Hendrickson/ThinkstockBulk stores’ whole business model seems to be to trick us into buying more than we need.Bad News: Supreme Court Blocked Power Plant Rules. Good News: The Era of Coal Is Over.http://www.slate.com/blogs/future_tense/2015/06/29/supreme_court_rules_against_epa_on_mercury_emissions_but_we_re_still_winning.html
<p>On Monday, the <a href="http://www.politico.com/story/2015/06/supreme-court-epa-mercury-emissions-obama-environment-119541.html">Supreme Court ruled against</a> one of the Obama administration’s primary battle victories in the <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/the-war-on-coal-is-real-and-one-side-is-clearly-winning-2015-5">so-called</a> war on coal. The court decided that the government hadn’t appropriately considered the economic cost to the coal industry of new rules designed to limit toxic mercury emissions. But buck up, environmentalists. The defeat for the Environmental Protection Agency probably won’t make much of a difference.</p>
<p>At the heart of the court’s decision was a dispute about the benefits of cracking down on mercury pollution from coal burning. <a href="http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2015/06/29/supreme-court-clean-air/28366777/">From <em>USA Today</em></a>:</p>
<p>While the estimated annual cost of $9.6 billion is not widely disputed, the cost-benefit ratio is. Opponents said the benefits are as low as $4 million a year. Proponents said when all secondary pollutants are considered, they're as high as $90 billion.</p>
<p>Under the Clean Air Act, regulations like this must be “appropriate and necessary.” The Supreme Court took the side of the opponents and ruled that the rules did not fit that mandate. &quot;One would not say that it is even rational, never mind 'appropriate,' to impose billions of dollars in economic costs in return for a few dollars in health or environmental benefits,&quot; wrote Justice Antonin Scalia, in the majority opinion. &quot;No regulation is 'appropriate' if it does significantly more harm than good.&quot;</p>
<p>The ruling has been <a href="http://www.politico.com/story/2015/06/supreme-court-epa-mercury-emissions-obama-environment-119541.html">widely interpreted as a setback</a> for Obama’s second-term focus on the environment, but a close reading of the ruling shows that not a whole lot will actually change. My <strong><em>Slate</em></strong> colleague Mark Stern has <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2015/06/29/supreme_court_restricts_epa_s_ability_to_curb_mercury_emissions.html">the main takeaway</a>:</p>
<p>This ruling does not invalidate the mercury regulations altogether. Rather, it simply requires the EPA to reconsider costs to power plants before deciding whether the regulations are &quot;appropriate and necessary.&quot; Presuming it considers these costs and decides that the regulations remain necessary, the EPA may again impose the new emissions standards.</p>
<p>Today’s ruling is essentially just a delay in what is likely to be an inevitable crackdown on coal emissions. “It is very likely that the mercury rule will ultimately be upheld, and that it will remain in place as the legal process continues,” Richard Revesz, director of the Institute for Policy Integrity and dean emeritus of NYU Law School, said in a press release.</p>
<p>Long after it was first discovered that there’s <a href="http://www.slate.com/articles/technology/future_tense/2014/05/carbon_dioxide_emissions_by_country_over_time_the_worst_global_warming_polluters.html">a lot of energy stored in those dirty black rocks</a>, coal remains one of the world’s leading power sources.* Regardless of Monday’s Supreme Court decision, that is changing.</p>
<p><a href="http://www.slate.com/articles/health_and_science/coal/2012/11/clean_coal_future_economics_geology_and_public_health_will_doom_coal_industry.html">Coal use in America is dying a long, slow death</a> as cheaper and cleaner sources of energy emerge. This historic shift has been <a href="http://www.slate.com/articles/business/the_juice/2014/05/the_war_on_coal_you_can_t_blame_it_all_on_the_obama_administration.html">led by</a> a boom in domestic natural gas, quickly expanding sources of cheap renewable energy, and awareness of coal’s damaging effects on <a href="http://cleantechnica.com/2015/04/11/heavy-public-health-burden-coal-energy/">public health</a> and the environment. Earlier this year, a study concluded that, in order to preserve a safe and stable climate, the vast majority of the world’s coal reserves <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/future_tense/2015/01/09/new_study_says_we_should_leave_most_remaining_fossil_fuels_in_the_ground.html">must stay in the ground</a>. The Obama administration’s proposed rules, now delayed, essentially just sped up a process <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/future_tense/2014/06/02/coal_power_plant_carbon_emissions_new_epa_rules_use_one_trick_that_undermines.html">that’s taking place anyway</a>.</p>
<p>Americans are <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2015/04/06/new_climate_change_poll_shows_americans_believe_in_global_warming.html">overwhelmingly in favor</a> of our transition away from coal. Coal use <a href="http://www.slate.com/articles/business/the_juice/2015/03/peak_coal_yes_the_u_s_and_other_big_economies_are_falling_out_of_love_with.html">has already peaked in the U.S.</a> and <a href="http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2015/05/27/3662681/chinas-coal-use-peaked/">may have also peaked</a> in places like China, years earlier than expected. China burns <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/business/carbon-economy/time-for-change-china-flags-peak-in-coal-usage-20130206-2dxrv.html">about as much coal</a> as the rest of the world combined, and Chinese citizens are <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2015/03/19/opinion/why-under-the-dome-found-a-ready-audience-in-china.html">rightly fed up</a> with how dirty the air there has become—estimates suggest that it contributes to <a href="http://www.scmp.com/news/china/article/1632163/670000-deaths-year-cost-chinas-reliance-coal?page=all">hundreds of thousands</a> of premature deaths each year. Since its release a few months ago, <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MhIZ50HKIp0">a documentary</a> called <em>Under the Dome</em> has garnered hundreds of millions of views in China. (The Chinese government <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2015/03/07/world/asia/china-blocks-web-access-to-documentary-on-nations-air-pollution.html">initially celebrated the film</a> but then <a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2015/03/16/this-documentary-went-viral-in-china-then-it-was-censored-it-wont-be-forgotten/">censored it</a>.) It seems China, too, now has its own war on coal. Expect other major emitters, like India, <a href="http://www.slate.com/articles/business/the_juice/2015/03/peak_coal_yes_the_u_s_and_other_big_economies_are_falling_out_of_love_with.html">to follow</a>.</p>
<p>For a bit, it seemed like America would just send overseas all the coal it wasn’t using at home, but that too looks like a dead end for the industry. U.S. coal exports declined a whopping 17 percent <a href="http://www.eia.gov/coal/production/quarterly/pdf/t7p01p1.pdf">just between 2013 and 2014</a>. Beyond mercury and smog, coal is the <a href="http://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.cfm?id=73&amp;t=11">most carbon-intensive source of energy</a>, and a huge contributor to climate change. That means the shift away from coal needs to happen as quickly as possible.</p>
<p>After the Supreme Court ruling was released, coal stocks spiked with the prospect of perhaps a few more years delay before the mercury emissions rules go into effect. The stock of Peabody Coal, America’s biggest coal company, closed up <a href="https://www.google.com/finance?chdnp=0&amp;chdd=1&amp;chds=1&amp;chdv=1&amp;chvs=Logarithmic&amp;chdeh=0&amp;chfdeh=0&amp;chdet=1435608000000&amp;chddm=391&amp;chls=IntervalBasedLine&amp;q=NYSE:BTU&amp;ntsp=0&amp;ei=p4qRVeDXAsKO2Aa5qq2QCw">more than 9 percent</a> on Monday. But—get this—it is down <a href="https://www.google.com/finance?chdnp=0&amp;chdd=1&amp;chds=1&amp;chdv=1&amp;chvs=Logarithmic&amp;chdeh=0&amp;chfdeh=0&amp;chdet=1435608000000&amp;chddm=391&amp;chls=IntervalBasedLine&amp;q=NYSE:BTU&amp;ntsp=0&amp;ei=p4qRVeDXAsKO2Aa5qq2QCw">a whopping 67 percent</a><em> </em>so far this year. That’s a pretty good indication that Monday’s Supreme Court ruling is a mere blip in a long-term market-driven shift away from coal.</p>
<p>What’s more, Monday’s ruling <a href="http://www.climatecentral.org/news/justices-block-emissions-rule-19170">actually strengthens</a> the government’s case in <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2015/06/10/us/coal-epa-clean-power-plan.html">defending legal challenges</a> to the Obama administration’s plan to reduce power plant emissions. The quirk here is that, according to Clear Air Act scholars, <a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-06-24/obama-may-win-by-losing-in-quirk-of-supreme-court-epa-review">the order of the regulations matters</a>: Coal companies didn’t want to navigate a mandate to reduce carbon emissions <em>after</em> a separate rule to limit mercury was already on the books. If the carbon dioxide rule can be finalized first—which is more likely with Monday’s delay to the mercury rule—it may pave the way for tougher emissions standards to happen sooner. And that just might be the death knell for coal.</p>
<p><em><strong>*Correction, July 1, 2015:</strong> This post originally suggested that coal was discovered 165 years ago. It was discovered long before that; there is archaeological evidence of its use nearly 2,000 years ago in ancient Rome and among the Hopi Indians of the American Southwest more than 700 years ago.</em></p>Mon, 29 Jun 2015 22:24:05 GMThttp://www.slate.com/blogs/future_tense/2015/06/29/supreme_court_rules_against_epa_on_mercury_emissions_but_we_re_still_winning.htmlEric Holthaus2015-06-29T22:24:05ZTechnologyBad News: Supreme Court Blocked Power Plant Rules. Good News: The Era of Coal Is Over.203150629004supreme courtscotuscoalEric HolthausFuture TenseFuture Tensehttp://www.slate.com/blogs/future_tense/2015/06/29/supreme_court_rules_against_epa_on_mercury_emissions_but_we_re_still_winning.htmlfalsefalsefalseDon't worry! Despite Monday's Supreme Court ruling, we're still winning the war on coal.Coal is history.Photo by Jeff Swensen/Getty ImagesGlobal trends show we're still winning the war on coal, despite Monday's Supreme Court ruling. Here, the Mitchell Power Station, a coal-fired power plant in New Eagle, Pennsylvania, before it was shut down in 2014.Go and Pollute No Morehttp://www.slate.com/articles/health_and_science/science/2015/06/how_priests_are_responding_to_the_pope_s_climate_change_encyclical.html
<p>In the rush to politicize Pope Francis’ encyclical on the environment, most media outlets focused on the <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2015/06/17/us/politics/popes-views-press-gop-on-climate-change.html?_r=1">reactions of two</a> high-profile conservative American Catholics: <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2015/jun/17/jeb-bush-joins-republican-backlash-pope-climate-change">Jeb Bush</a> and <a href="http://postonpolitics.blog.palmbeachpost.com/2015/06/21/marco-rubio-on-pope-francis-climate-change-confederate-flag-jeb-bush-2/">Marco Rubio</a>. While it’s true that <a href="http://www.slate.com/articles/technology/future_tense/2015/05/republican_bob_inglis_is_america_s_best_hope_for_near_term_climate_action.html">U.S. Republicans are absolutely critical</a> for truly bold global action on climate, they’re not who the pope was primarily talking to.</p>
<p>Instead, liberal Americans within the Catholic tradition—especially those who may sometimes think they’re already doing a pretty good job living green—are the ones to watch. Without their enthusiastic support, Francis’ inspiring sermon against a “throwaway culture” may fizzle—at the very moment when it could inspire real change.</p>
<p>But the road ahead for the church’s progressive wing won’t be easy. The <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/future_tense/2015/06/18/pope_francis_encyclical_laudato_si_reframes_climate_change_as_a_human_rights.html">pope</a> repudiates the <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2015/03/31/u_s_climate_targets_in_advance_of_paris_agreement_the_obama_administration.html">slow, iterative approach</a> that’s allowed climate change to escalate decades after <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/1988/06/24/us/global-warming-has-begun-expert-tells-senate.html">the basic consequences were first widely known</a>. In his message, the pope called for a <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/future_tense/2015/06/15/pope_francis_in_leaked_climate_change_encyclical_we_re_on_a_path_to_destroy.html">complete “rethink”</a> of humanity’s relationship to the environment, warning that “halfway measures simply delay the inevitable disaster.” When it comes to climate change, we <a href="http://qz.com/140576/how-to-fix-global-warming-before-its-too-late/">simply don’t have that much time</a>. Only a <a href="http://qz.com/154196/the-only-way-to-stop-climate-change-now-may-be-revolution/">truly radical response</a>—like a global activist movement demanding a revolution in the way our society operates—may give us enough wiggle room to escape the worst climate impacts. With the pope’s blessing, the Catholic Church’s liberal wing may be primed to lead such a movement—or not.</p>
<p>“It’s a game-changing moment for the church,” said Matt Malone, a Jesuit priest and editor in chief of <em>America</em>, a weekly Jesuit magazine. By framing the environment as a core Catholic advocacy issue, “the highest teaching authority in the church is saying this is now a priority.”</p>
<p>On Monday, however, the <em>New York Times </em><a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2015/06/22/world/few-echo-popes-environment-plea-in-sunday-sermons.html?_r=1">reported</a> that not many parish priests mentioned the pope’s new emphasis on the environment in their Sunday remarks. The <em>Washington Post</em> <a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2015/06/18/why-pope-franciss-climate-message-may-be-hard-for-some-americans-to-swallow/?postshare=681434991244320">speculated</a> that the pope’s message may ring especially hollow in the United States, because the pope’s environmental ethic of “communitarianism”—a “we’re all in it together” mentality—cuts to the core of American individualism.</p>
<p>But it’s clear the pope’s message is resonating, even if not among every single American Catholic. In California, Gov. Jerry Brown, who once studied to be a Jesuit priest, <a href="http://timesofsandiego.com/tech/2015/06/20/brown-hails-popes-controversial-encyclical-on-climate-change/">lamented</a> our “deep obsession” with “material stuff.” Martin O’Malley, the long-shot presidential candidate, cited the pope’s call when he <a href="http://www.nationaljournal.com/energy/tom-steyer-hillary-clinton-climate-change-encyclical-20150618?ref=t.co&amp;mrefid=walkingheader">announced an ambitious plan</a> to power America with 100 percent renewable energy by 2050. Deke Arndt, a practicing Catholic and one of the U.S. government’s foremost climate scientists, <a href="http://jacksonville.com/news/2015-06-18/story/pope-francis-were-turning-earth-immense-pile-filth">was brought to tears</a> while reading the pope’s message.</p>
<p>As a former Catholic and a writer on climate change, the pope’s letter felt a bit like <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uPG3YMcSvzo">that one <em>Seinfeld</em> episode</a> for me. <a href="http://w2.vatican.va/content/francesco/en/encyclicals/documents/papa-francesco_20150524_enciclica-laudato-si.html">The encyclical</a> was <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/future_tense/2015/06/18/pope_francis_encyclical_laudato_si_reframes_climate_change_as_a_human_rights.html">addressed to “every person living on the planet,”</a> but I felt like he was speaking to me personally.</p>
<p>I grew up in a conservative Kansas town and went to a Jesuit university with a rich history of activism, almost by accident—Saint Louis University was the closest Catholic institution with a program in meteorology. Growing up, my parents encouraged us to volunteer, but my town was so small it was hard to really be aware of inequality and injustice at bigger scales. At college, I participated in alternative spring break trips focused on immigration and homelessness in Texas and Colorado. Our campus ministry office led annual trips to Ft. Benning, Georgia, that encouraged students to engage in nonviolent civil resistance to protest the 1989 assassination of Jesuit priests in El Salvador. During the run-up to the Iraq war in 2003, my professor for a core theology class offered us extra credit for “observing” a big protest downtown.</p>
<p>After I graduated, I spent a year with the Jesuit Volunteer Corps, and briefly considered becoming a priest. I chose <a href="http://climatesociety.ei.columbia.edu/">my graduate program in climate</a> because of its emphasis on addressing impacts on the poor and wrote my masters thesis on “the social justice of weather.” In 2013, my wife and I <a href="http://www.slate.com/articles/technology/future_tense/2014/10/plane_carbon_footprint_i_went_a_year_without_flying_to_fight_climate_change.html">gave up flying</a> to cut our carbon footprint. This year, we moved to a smaller house to try to cut back even more. Yet I feel like I’m nowhere even close to the complete “rethink” that Francis calls for.</p>
<p>Now, the most famous Jesuit in the world is trying to do for the entire planet what college did for me: inspire people to think about how everyday individual actions, multiplied millions of times, could add up to a “bold cultural revolution,” in Francis’ words.</p>
<p>To try to see what it might take for this “game-changing” Catholic environmental movement to emerge, I spoke with a few of my former priests.</p>
<p>John Whitney, a Jesuit and pastor at St. Joseph Catholic Church in Seattle, was the most optimistic. “I think this is the first time, honestly, in my lifetime as a priest, 21 years now, that I’ve seen this kind of enthusiasm,” he told me.</p>
<p>Because Francis has decided to live a relatively simple lifestyle as pope—<a href="http://www.cbsnews.com/news/pope-francis-goes-on-retreat-takes-the-bus/">he takes the bus</a> and lives in a small apartment—Whitney thinks his words are more meaningful. “This is not the pope playing science. This a fundamental part of our faith, and it requires us to act. It doesn’t require us to pray harder, it requires us to act on our prayers,” Whitney said. “It’s a call to a universal movement.”</p>
<p>In his church, Whitney wants to launch an educational and activist campaign to bring attention to climate change—but his vision doesn’t always align with his parishioners’. In one meeting of his parish council, a member suggested installing electric vehicle charging stations in the parking lot. Whitney balked. “We have a large population of very wealthy people [in our parish],” he said. “Is that really what we want to do, put in these expensive things for the people that are driving their Teslas?”</p>
<p>Instead, he’s trying to steer the conversation toward political advocacy on issues like coal transportation and offshore oil and gas drilling, and he’s challenging his congregation to consume less.</p>
<p>Whitney, like most priests I spoke with, rejected the partisan politics attached to the climate issue. “If you actually read what the pope is saying, some of these values are incredibly conservative,” he said. “The true conservative tradition is not excessive consumption—it’s the golden rule and taking care of each other.”</p>
<p>After decades of focusing on issues of marriage and abortion, the pope’s reframing of the Catholic position on the environment as a “life issue” was smart, especially for progressive priests in conservative parts of the country, said Michael Mulvany, the pastor at Corpus Christi Catholic Church in Lawrence, Kansas. James Conley, bishop of Lincoln, Nebraska, agreed. “Catholics can’t be bound to any political party—we have to follow the dictates of truth on every issue,” Conley said in an email. Conley is the relatively progressive new leader of what’s been considered the most conservative diocese in the country. His predecessor <a href="http://journalstar.com/news/local/a-crisis-of-authority-in-lincoln-s-catholic-diocese/article_16684861-2ab6-5c96-adb0-aa486257fe72.html">excommunicated members of a group</a> that was advocating for an expanded role of women in the church, for example. Priests like him face an uphill battle in talking about climate change on Sundays.</p>
<p>Dave Zegar, pastor at St. Andrew Catholic Church in Portland, Oregon, has the opposite problem. In a deeply liberal part of the country, his church—one of the most progressive Catholic churches in the country—is facing headwinds from a conservative bishop. Members of his parish held a press conference last week to celebrate the pope’s letter, and one wrote an <a href="http://www.oregonlive.com/opinion/index.ssf/2015/06/post_138.html">op-ed in the local newspaper</a>. In 2013, Zegar’s bishop <a href="http://www.oregonlive.com/portland/index.ssf/2013/06/st_andrews_catholic_parish_wil.html">attempted to block</a> members of his parish from holding a banner in Portland’s pride parade, but he’s not sure whether his bishop will try to stop their actions on climate. On Tuesday, the bishop <a href="http://www.catholicsentinel.org/main.asp?SectionID=2&amp;SubSectionID=35&amp;ArticleID=29460">met with Portland’s mayor</a>, Charlie Hales, who was invited to the Vatican for a meeting on climate next month, but he hasn’t yet made a public statement on the encyclical.</p>
<p>The next chapter in this story will be the pope’s first visit to the United States in September, which will include <a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/post-politics/wp/2015/02/05/pope-francis-to-visit-capitol-on-sept-24/">the first address to a joint session of Congress</a>.</p>Thu, 25 Jun 2015 21:01:43 GMThttp://www.slate.com/articles/health_and_science/science/2015/06/how_priests_are_responding_to_the_pope_s_climate_change_encyclical.htmlEric Holthaus2015-06-25T21:01:43ZHow the pope’s climate-change message is playing in pews.Health and ScienceThe Pope Calls Climate Change a “Life Issue” Like Abortion. That’s Genius.&nbsp;100150625022climate changereligionpope franciscatholicismEric HolthausSciencehttp://www.slate.com/articles/health_and_science/science/2015/06/how_priests_are_responding_to_the_pope_s_climate_change_encyclical.htmlfalsefalsefalseThe pope’s genius decision to frame climate change as a “life issue” like abortion:How the pope’s climate-change message is playing in the pews.Photo by ViktorCap/iStockThe <em>New York Times</em> reported that not many parish priests mentioned the pope’s new emphasis on the environment in their Sunday remarks.This Week’s Geomagnetic Super Storm Was the Best in a Decadehttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2015/06/23/northern_lights_show_this_week_s_geomagnetic_super_storm_was_the_best_in.html
<p>If you were lucky enough to venture outside and witness it, you know just how breathtaking <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/future_tense/2015/06/22/northern_lights_surge_as_huge_solar_storm_reaches_earth.html">Monday night’s northern lights show</a> was. The rest of us can give thanks for the invention of digital cameras and social media.</p>
<p>Northern lights were spotted as far south as Arizona, New Mexico, Texas, and Georgia and even in light-polluted urban areas like <a href="https://twitter.com/nymetrowx/status/613204729103953920">New York City</a>. Stunning overhead displays were reported in places like Wyoming, Michigan, and Maine. A surge in the Earth’s magnetic field around 1 a.m. EST early Tuesday morning coincided with the peak of the event—which made for nearly ideal viewing conditions in North America. By all accounts, this was an amazing show.</p>
<p>The person with perhaps the best view in all of North America was Ryan Knapp, a meteorologist at Mount Washington Observatory in New Hampshire, the tallest point in the Northeast. He described the storm for me in a single word: “magnetizing.”</p>
<p>Using the <a href="http://pluto.space.swri.edu/image/glossary/dst.html">disturbance storm time index</a>, a measure of the severity of geomagnetic storms, Monday night’s event <a href="https://twitter.com/EricHolthaus/status/613475806568775680">registered</a> at -251 <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tesla_(unit)">nanoteslas</a> at the USGS geomagnetic observatory in Honolulu, Hawaii—good enough to make it the most intense geomagnetic storm in the current 11-year solar cycle, and putting it just barely into “super storm” <a href="http://www.aer.com/science-research/space/space-weather/space-weather-dst-index/dst-storm-time">territory</a> (the most severe category of geomagnetic storms).</p>
<p>Still, that’s pretty small when compared to some of the biggest solar storms of the past few decades. The strongest geomagnetic storm since modern recordkeeping began was in March 1989, peaking at about -580 nanoteslas, when a power grid surge produced a blackout for six million people in Canada. The 1859 “Carrington event”—the biggest solar storm since the invention of electricity, estimated at a whopping -1760 nanoteslas—<a href="http://science.nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-nasa/2008/06may_carringtonflare/">produced aurora worldwide</a>, and channeled so much energy through telegraph wires that operators were able to send messages without batteries. <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/bad_astronomy/2014/08/01/solar_storm_a_massive_2012_cme_just_missed_the_earth.html">Should an event like that happen today</a>, it’s estimated it would take months or even years to rebuild the global power grid, at a cost of trillions of dollars. That’s why studying space weather is so important—with better predictive models, <a href="http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2011/03/110302-solar-flares-sun-storms-earth-danger-carrington-event-science/">Earth could hunker down</a> should the big one come barreling our way.</p>
<p>Another northern lights show is <a href="http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/news/another-storm-forecast-wednesday-nightthursday">possible later this week</a>, but chances are it won’t match up to Monday’s show. Still, it’s still worth follow along <a href="https://twitter.com/search?src=typd&amp;q=%23aurora">on Twitter</a>, and then heading outside if things look promising.&nbsp;</p>Wed, 24 Jun 2015 02:43:52 GMThttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2015/06/23/northern_lights_show_this_week_s_geomagnetic_super_storm_was_the_best_in.htmlEric Holthaus2015-06-24T02:43:52ZbriefingThis Week’s Geomagnetic Super Storm Was the Best in a Decade227150623015northern lightsEric HolthausThe SlatestThe Slatesthttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2015/06/23/northern_lights_show_this_week_s_geomagnetic_super_storm_was_the_best_in.htmlfalsefalsefalseThis is what the best Northern Lights show in a decade looked like [PHOTOS]:Awe-inspiring images.Photo by John D. Roberts, Jr/FlickrWinslow, Maine.Northern Lights Surge as Huge Solar Storm Reaches Earthhttp://www.slate.com/blogs/future_tense/2015/06/22/northern_lights_surge_as_huge_solar_storm_reaches_earth.html
<p>Thanks to an “<a href="http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/news/cme-reaches-ace-spacecraft">impressive</a>” solar explosion over the weekend, a dazzling display of Northern Lights is possible Monday night across northern Europe and North America—rivaling some of the <a href="http://geomag.usgs.gov/storm/">best shows in years</a>.</p>
<p>On Sunday, the summer solstice, a major explosion on the sun propelled a coronal mass ejection toward Earth at about 4 million miles per hour. It then swept up two smaller, slower coronal mass ejections from last week, creating one big smorgasbord of geomagnetic exuberance. The whole mess reached Earth Monday afternoon with a bit more energy than expected.</p>
<p>The Northern Lights, also known as the aurora borealis, could be visible high in the sky as far south as New York City, Chicago, and Portland, Oregon, and might appear as a dull glow on the horizon in places like Oklahoma City and Charlotte, North Carolina.</p>
<p>The only bad news is, it’s coming on one of the shortest nights of the year.</p>
<p>That shouldn’t discourage you from heading out, though. This storm is of similar strength as <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2015/03/17/northern_lights_aurora_borealis_across_america_best_chance_to_see_in_a_decade.html">the storm on March 17 of this year</a>, where aurora were most impressive <a href="http://imgur.com/gallery/tN9DT">in Europe</a> but <a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2015/03/18/photos-spectacular-aurora-from-severe-solar-storm-light-up-northern-skies/">also visible in</a> Illinois, Ohio, and New Jersey. As an extra bonus, most of the country will be cloud-free on Monday night.</p>
<p>During <a href="http://geomag.usgs.gov/storm/22">the March 17 storm</a>, the <a href="http://pluto.space.swri.edu/image/glossary/dst.html">disturbance storm time index</a>—a measure of the strength of the Earth’s magnetic field—reached peak levels for the current 11-year solar cycle. This storm has already <a href="https://twitter.com/EricHolthaus/status/613149270766546944">just slightly eclipsed that one</a>, though at a different geomagnetic observatory. The event could linger into Tuesday night if conditions are right.</p>
<p>The aurora is caused by interactions between the Earth’s magnetic field and charged particles blasted toward us by <a href="http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/coronal-mass-ejections">powerful explosions</a> in the sun’s atmosphere. What causes these solar explosions <a href="http://earthsky.org/space/what-are-coronal-mass-ejections">isn’t well-understood</a> by scientists, but they often occur near big sunspots.</p>
<p>The aurora themselves are totally harmless, but other associated effects from a particularly large geomagnetic storm like this one include radio outages, electrical power surges, and slightly less accurate satellite navigation. A truly monstrous geomagnetic storm, <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/bad_astronomy/2014/08/01/solar_storm_a_massive_2012_cme_just_missed_the_earth.html">like the one that happened in 1859</a>, could wipe out nearly every electrical circuit on whatever side of the Earth was unlucky enough to be facing the sun at that inopportune moment.</p>
<p>If you don’t see anything Monday night, try again Tuesday night. And if that fails, watch photos stream in from around the world on one of my favorite websites, <a href="http://spaceweathergallery.com/aurora_gallery.html">spaceweather.com</a>.</p>Tue, 23 Jun 2015 02:12:58 GMThttp://www.slate.com/blogs/future_tense/2015/06/22/northern_lights_surge_as_huge_solar_storm_reaches_earth.htmlEric Holthaus2015-06-23T02:12:58ZTechnologyNorthern Lights Surge as Huge Solar Storm Reaches Earth203150622005spaceEric HolthausFuture TenseFuture Tensehttp://www.slate.com/blogs/future_tense/2015/06/22/northern_lights_surge_as_huge_solar_storm_reaches_earth.htmlfalsefalsefalseNorthern Lights surge as huge solar storm reaches Earth:"The Northern Lights, also known as the aurora borealis, could be visible high in the sky as far south as New York City, Chicago, and Portland, Oregon, and might appear as a dull glow on the horizon in places like Oklahoma City and Charlotte, North Carolina."Geophysical Institute, University of Alaska-FairbanksThis week's geomagnetic storm could produce the best Northern Lights show in years. Best visibility is usually between 10 p.m. and 2 a.m. local time along the northern horizon.Be Thankful, California. At Least You’re Not Puerto Rico.http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2015/06/22/drought_in_puerto_rico_it_s_much_worse_than_california.html
<p>In California, reservoir levels are <a href="http://cdec.water.ca.gov/cdecapp/resapp/resDetailOrig.action?resid=SHA">plummeting</a>. The state’s precious mountain snowpack is <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2015/05/29/california_s_snowpack_now_zero_percent_of_normal_a_worst_case_scenario_for.html">already gone</a>. On Thursday, a huge wildfire in the San Bernadino National Forest grew in size by 500 percent <a href="http://www.theweathernetwork.com/us/news/articles/us-weather/california-lake-fire-grows-five-times-in-four-hours-wildfire/53004/">in just four hours</a>. This weekend, <a href="http://www.news10.net/story/news/local/2015/06/21/washington-fire-lake-tahoe/29085425/">a fire near Lake Tahoe</a> exploded to seven times the size of New York City’s Central Park in little more than half a day. Both were <a href="https://twitter.com/DavidNBCLA/status/612943990711717888">visible from space</a> Sunday night. Temperatures are <a href="https://twitter.com/EricHolthaus/status/611930078126026752">soaring</a>, locking in drought for <a href="http://www.slate.com/articles/technology/future_tense/2015/02/study_climate_change_may_bring_about_megadroughts_this_century.html">months if not years to come</a>. “The situation is grim for everyone and everything,” said Charlton H. Bonham, director of the California Department of Fish and Wildlife.</p>
<p>At least it’s not Puerto Rico.</p>
<p>Last week, the Puerto Rican government ramped up drinking water rationing for 200,000 users in the San Juan area, permitting households to draw water <a href="http://www.ibtimes.com/puerto-rico-grappling-potentially-historic-drought-expands-water-rationing-1971400">only every third day</a>. Rainfall deficits have been building up since 2013, <a href="http://waterwatch.usgs.gov/?m=real&amp;r=pr&amp;w=map">drying up rivers and streams</a> at a <a href="https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/drought/201505#det-reg-pr">record-breaking pace</a>. It’s become one of the worst droughts in the island’s history.</p>
<p>But the situation in Puerto Rico is much more complex than just a lack of rain. Last month, Gov. Alejandro Padilla issued a state of emergency over the drought, which <a href="http://www.ibtimes.com/puerto-rico-grappling-potentially-historic-drought-expands-water-rationing-1971400">he blamed</a> partly on the island’s struggling economy and the low priority given to water storage by previous governors. Padilla has <a href="http://www.cnbc.com/id/102763674">appealed to Congress</a> for the ability to declare bankruptcy and at least partially eliminate a whopping $73 billion in debt. Water rationing will only <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/may/13/puerto-rico-water-rationing-san-juan-el-nino">worsen the fragile economy</a>, currently mired in an eight-year recession.</p>
<p>John Morales, a Miami-based meteorologist who provides weather forecasting services for the Caribbean, said Puerto Rico’s government could actually be underestimating the seriousness of the problem. The island’s <a href="http://pr.water.usgs.gov/drought/hydro_conditions_selected_sites.html">dwindling reservoirs</a> are so silted up from bygone years of intense tropical downpours they’re not able to store as much water as the government thinks they can.</p>
<p>“The capacity of the reservoirs has been severely compromised by sedimentation and lack of maintenance,” Morales told me. What’s worse, he said the island’s “crumbling infrastructure” is producing “huge losses” of water from innumerable leaks.</p>
<p>California’s drought is bad, but not this bad. For one thing, drinking water rationing would be unthinkable in California. In the limited areas of California that have run out of drinking water, domestic wells <a href="http://www.visaliatimesdelta.com/story/news/local/2015/06/18/tulare-county-failures-continue-mount/28954637/">ran dry</a> due to overuse by neighboring farmers—not due to a lack of total supply. Thanks to <a href="http://www.slate.com/articles/technology/future_tense/2014/04/thirsty_west_california_s_meager_snowpack_will_exacerbate_a_dangerous_drought.single.html">unimaginably ambitious public works projects</a> in the past, California still has enough total water supply, it’s just <a href="http://www.slate.com/articles/business/moneybox/2015/04/almonds_in_california_they_use_up_a_lot_of_water_but_they_deserve_a_place.html">not being allocated efficiently</a>. Due to years of neglect, Puerto Rico is heading into this drought without much wiggle room.</p>
<p>For the Caribbean, water availability is at the center of an uncertain future—<a href="http://www.jamaicaobserver.com/news/Caribbean-among-most-vulnerable-regions-to-climate-change">made worse by climate change</a> and a precarious economic <a href="http://www.greenhotelier.org/destinations/the-caribbean/">dependence on tourism</a>. And in <a href="https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/611942558055432193">the shorter term</a>, with a building El Ni&ntilde;o threatening <a href="https://twitter.com/EricHolthaus/status/611996015864905728">continued dry conditions</a> across Central America and the Caribbean, the <a href="https://twitter.com/EricHolthaus/status/611947875942076417">next several months</a> don’t provide much hope for a turnaround in terms of rainfall.</p>
<p>There is one possible longer-term solution that’s gaining steam: insurance. The G7 <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2015/06/08/g7_summit_climate_change_world_should_phase_out_fossil_fuels_by_2100.html">recently highlighted</a> a novel <a href="https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/insurance-gains-clout-climate-change-130724034.html">extreme weather-based insurance scheme in the Caribbean</a> as an option to scale up assistance to hundreds of millions of people on the front lines of climate change. Right now, when disasters hit, most of the world’s poor are pretty much on their own. Under <a href="http://www.ccrif.org/content/about-us">the Caribbean scheme</a>, that risk is shared among countries—participants receive cash payouts in bad years to soften the blow of any single extreme event. But the Caribbean plan doesn’t currently cover drought—money can’t buy water if there isn’t any to begin with.</p>Mon, 22 Jun 2015 16:48:59 GMThttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2015/06/22/drought_in_puerto_rico_it_s_much_worse_than_california.htmlEric Holthaus2015-06-22T16:48:59ZbriefingBe Thankful, California. At Least You’re Not Puerto Rico.227150622003california droughtdroughtpuerto ricoEric HolthausThe SlatestThe Slatesthttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2015/06/22/drought_in_puerto_rico_it_s_much_worse_than_california.htmlfalsefalsefalseBe thankful, California. At least you’re not Puerto Rico.It may be an island paradise, but there's currently one heck of a drought.Photo by Al Bello/Getty ImagesLife's not a beach in Puerto Rico right now.Pope Francis: “Every Person Living on This Planet” Should Act on Climatehttp://www.slate.com/blogs/future_tense/2015/06/18/pope_francis_encyclical_laudato_si_reframes_climate_change_as_a_human_rights.html
<p>On Thursday, <a href="http://w2.vatican.va/content/francesco/en/encyclicals/documents/papa-francesco_20150524_enciclica-laudato-si.html">the Vatican released “Laudato Si,”</a> a highly anticipated letter from Pope Francis that promises to reframe the debate on what to do about climate change—in the pope’s words, “one of the principal challenges facing humanity in our day.”</p>
<p>The encyclical—an emphatic type of papal letter, and the first ever written on environment—is addressed to “every person living on this planet.” It firmly and unequivocally characterizes climate change as a human rights issue and calls for a radical and urgent transformation of global politics and individual lifestyles to combat it.</p>
<p><em>ThinkProgress</em>’ Joe Romm <a href="http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2015/06/17/3670578/pope-climate-change-churchill-humanity-needs/">likened the pope’s words</a> to Winston Churchill’s speech on the eve of World War II: “The era of procrastination, of half measures, of soothing and baffling expedience of delays, is coming to its close. In its place we are entering a period of consequences.” If the world listens, Francis’ words could be equally important.</p>
<p>Francis goes a step further than scientists are routinely willing to go: He says that if we continue on our current path, we risk destruction not only of the environment but of the basic decency that makes us human. In that sense, his words are relevant far beyond the climate debate.</p>
<p>In his letter, Francis concludes no technological miracle can solve the fundamentally intertwined problems of climate change and global poverty. In a typical passage, Francis rails against inequality and the consumption-driven culture that drives climate change:</p>
<p>We fail to see that some are mired in desperate and degrading poverty, with no way out, while others have not the faintest idea of what to do with their possessions, vainly showing off their supposed superiority and leaving behind them so much waste which, if it were the case everywhere, would destroy the planet. In practice, we continue to tolerate that some consider themselves more human than others, as if they had been born with greater rights.</p>
<p>Nowhere is the pope’s call for renewable energy more relevant than in rapidly developing countries like India. On Wednesday India’s government <a href="http://pib.nic.in/newsite/PrintRelease.aspx?relid=122566&amp;utm_source=twitterfeed&amp;utm_medium=twitter">finalized a startling new goal</a>: By 2022 the country plans to install 100 gigawatts of solar panels—a more than 30-fold expansion to a quarter of its overall electricity supply and five times the country’s previous goal. This ambitious target would make India <a href="http://cleantechnica.com/2015/03/09/solar-power-form-25-indias-installed-power-capacity-2022-deutsche-bank/">one of the global solar leaders</a>—in 2015 India will install <a href="http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2015/06/17/3670558/india-makes-huge-solar-commitment-100-gigawatts/">more solar than Germany</a>. Right now the country generates about 65 percent of its electricity by burning coal, and this is a significant commitment to reducing that figure. In the announcement the Indian government called on help from international donors. Unfortunately wealthy countries have devoted a <a href="http://www.brookings.edu/blogs/planetpolicy/posts/2015/05/05-indian-leadership-climate-change-saran-sharan">vanishingly small amount of money</a> to combating climate change.</p>
<p>Vastly expanding its solar in India isn’t necessarily intended to fight climate change but <a href="http://www.marklynas.org/2014/11/indias-coal-conundrum-which-comes-first-the-climate-or-the-poor/">to relieve its people of poverty</a>—some of the worst in the world. If the rich world wants to act in a moral way on climate, it should build solar panels in India, commit to <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/future_tense/2015/01/09/new_study_says_we_should_leave_most_remaining_fossil_fuels_in_the_ground.html">no new development of fossil energy for its own use</a>, and <a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-04-30/u-s-among-nations-slow-to-deliver-money-pledged-to-climate-fund">fully fund</a> its obligations to help the poorest people in the world adapt to a huge problem that <a href="https://www.pik-potsdam.de/news/press-releases/201chumanity-at-risk-201c-climate-scientist-schellnhuber-speaks-at-the-vatican">was not of their making</a>.</p>
<p>An estimated 300 million people there—one-quarter of the country—has no access to electricity at all. Just last month the country endured the <a href="http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2015/06/02/3665123/india-heat-wave-5th-deadliest/">fifth-deadliest heat wave in world history</a>. In India air conditioning is increasingly becoming a human rights issue. This is what the pope is talking about when he discusses climate change and poverty in the same breath.</p>
<p>As the first pope from the developing world, Francis, a native of Argentina, has a clear mandate to speak on behalf of the world’s poor. Although the letter was addressed to everyone on Earth, it’s clearly aimed at high-consuming countries like the United States. The average American emits 17 tons of carbon dioxide each year—the highest of any major country, more than double the world average, and 10 times the average person in India.</p>
<p>For a 180-page document distributed by the Catholic Church, Pope Francis’ letter is very readable and deeply moving. It’s more like a poetry slam at an Occupy Wall Street rally than a formal church document. Reading it, I felt like Francis was talking directly to me—challenging me to become a better person.</p>
<p>This is an important day. One of the world’s most popular politicians, who happens to be the leader of one of the world’s most popular religions, has said that we must choose a radically new path. The letter may not immediately change behavior, but it is going to be a huge part of political leaders’ thought processes going forward. The rest of us should listen, too.</p>Thu, 18 Jun 2015 15:29:58 GMThttp://www.slate.com/blogs/future_tense/2015/06/18/pope_francis_encyclical_laudato_si_reframes_climate_change_as_a_human_rights.htmlEric Holthaus2015-06-18T15:29:58ZTechnologyPope Francis: “Every Person Living on This Planet” Should Act on Climate203150618001pope francisclimate changeglobal warmingindiasolarhuman rightsEric HolthausFuture TenseFuture Tensehttp://www.slate.com/blogs/future_tense/2015/06/18/pope_francis_encyclical_laudato_si_reframes_climate_change_as_a_human_rights.htmlfalsefalsefalsePope Francis: Climate change is a human rights issue, and we all have a chance to help."It’s more like a poetry slam at an Occupy Wall Street rally than a formal church document."Photo by Alberto Pizzoli/AFP/Getty ImagesThe Pope's message is a call to think of climate change as a human rights issue.“Ring of Fire” Brings Tropical Flood Risk from Houston to New York Cityhttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2015/06/16/tropical_storm_bill_flooding_risk_will_stretch_from_texas_to_new_york_city.html
<p>Tropical Storm Bill is making landfall on Tuesday along the Texas coast, bringing a <a href="https://twitter.com/NWSWPC/status/610821377105481728">high risk of flooding</a> to an already rain-soaked part of the country. That’s just going to be the start of a week of extreme weather for much of the country.</p>
<p>A “<a href="https://twitter.com/anthonywx/status/610419284897067008">ring of fire</a>” weather pattern, more typical of the height of summer, will focus the tropical moisture from Bill’s remnants along a narrow arc from Houston to St. Louis to New York City over the course of the week. The latest weather models show that Bill may actually intensify just slightly after making landfall, and <a href="https://twitter.com/EricHolthaus/status/610825290130980864">the National Hurricane Center’s latest update</a> shows an intact cyclone lasting at least through Illinois on Saturday.</p>
<p>This isn’t unprecedented, but it is rare. Thanks to all the rain over the last several weeks in the eastern half of the country—May was the <a href="http://mashable.com/2015/06/08/may-wettest-month-us-history/">wettest month</a> in U.S. history—Bill will have plenty of soil moisture to work with. That could juice the storm just enough—via an unusual process <a href="http://mashable.com/2015/06/15/texas-floods-brown-ocean-storm/">known as the “brown ocean” effect</a>—to <a href="https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/610210346201018368">maintain its strength</a> long after landfall. In 2007, Tropical Storm Erin <a href="http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/?n=events-20070819">did roughly the same thing</a>, and ended up producing a swath of heavy rain and damaging wind gusts up to hurricane force all the way into central Oklahoma.</p>
<p>Bill’s fury could extend much further. A deep dome of high pressure is anchored over the Southeast right now, which will force the tropical storm’s remnants up and over it, through the Midwest and toward the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. Thunderstorms would have been more likely to occur this week across this arc anyway, but Bill will exacerbate the flooding potential all the way to New York City this weekend. The National Weather Service is expecting 7 to 9 inches of rain—several months worth—along this swath over the next seven days.</p>
<p>As for the response of U.S. cities, a <a href="https://twitter.com/galvcountyoem/status/610492336854953984">voluntary evacuation order</a> was issued for Galveston Island on Monday, where a storm surge of up to 3 feet was <a href="https://twitter.com/richardassigns/status/610777757308485632">making its way inland</a> on Tuesday morning. Bill will bring up to a foot of rain to the troubled “<a href="http://dotearth.blogs.nytimes.com/2015/05/26/in-texas-the-race-to-develop-in-harms-way-outpaces-flood-risk-studies-and-warming-impacts/?module=BlogPost-Title&amp;version=Blog%20Main&amp;contentCollection=resilience&amp;action=Click&amp;pgtype=Blogs&amp;region=Body&amp;_r=0">flash flood alley</a>” region of central Texas that got walloped with <a href="http://mashable.com/2015/05/27/anatomy-flooding-wimberley-texas/">record-setting flooding</a> in late May. Houston, which <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2015/05/26/houston_texas_flooding_how_el_nino_and_climate_change_contributed_to_the.html">just went through a major flood</a> of its own, could get as much as 10 inches.</p>
<p>This part of Texas—a triangle from San Antonio to Dallas-Fort Worth to Houston—is especially prone to rapidly-rising rivers due to <a href="http://www.lcra.org/water/floods/pages/default.aspx">a unique blend</a> of hilly terrain, shallow soil, <a href="http://dotearth.blogs.nytimes.com/2015/05/27/a-researcher-who-modeled-texass-blanco-river-in-2007-probes-for-lessons-after-the-deadly-flash-flood/?_r=0">relentless urbanization</a>, and some of the historically heaviest rainfall rates in the country. As the climate warms, extreme rainfall events are <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2015/05/26/houston_texas_flooding_how_el_nino_and_climate_change_contributed_to_the.html">getting more intense</a>, and Texas is <a href="http://www.climatecentral.org/news/across-u.s.-heaviest-downpours-on-the-rise-18989">among the most vulnerable</a> places in America.</p>
<p>Bill is a classic <a href="https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/609840892212551680">El Ni&ntilde;o-fueled</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/nwstampabay/status/477022539940499456">mid-June</a> “home grown” tropical system, and not at all out of the ordinary for this time of year. The oddity is that it could be remembered much more for its impact after landfall.</p>
<p>Meanwhile, underneath the southeastern dome of high pressure, a <a href="https://twitter.com/NWSRaleigh/status/610450697067167746">record-setting</a> heat wave is <a href="https://twitter.com/nsj/status/610297669852995584">underway</a>. Columbia, South Carolina could top out <a href="https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/609750816103071744">around 105 degrees</a> Fahrenheit by mid-week, and probably wouldn’t mind some of that rain.&nbsp;</p>Tue, 16 Jun 2015 17:24:13 GMThttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2015/06/16/tropical_storm_bill_flooding_risk_will_stretch_from_texas_to_new_york_city.htmlEric Holthaus2015-06-16T17:24:13Zbriefing“Ring of Fire” Brings Tropical Flood Risk from Houston to New York City227150616006hurricane seasontexasfloodingEric HolthausThe SlatestThe Slatesthttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2015/06/16/tropical_storm_bill_flooding_risk_will_stretch_from_texas_to_new_york_city.htmlfalsefalsefalse"Ring of Fire" will make for one crazy weather week in America:Expect several months worth of rain.Scott Kelly/NASATropical Storm Bill, as seen from the International Space Station on Monday. The storm’s remnants will create a widespread flooding risk this week.&nbsp;Pope Gets a Little Apocalyptic in Leaked Draft of Climate Change Documenthttp://www.slate.com/blogs/future_tense/2015/06/15/pope_francis_in_leaked_climate_change_encyclical_we_re_on_a_path_to_destroy.html
<p>A <a href="http://speciali.espresso.repubblica.it/pdf/laudato_si.pdf">nearly final draft</a> of Pope Francis’ highly anticipated letter to the world’s Catholics was <a href="http://espresso.repubblica.it/attualita/2015/06/15/news/papa-bergoglio-e-la-lezione-di-francesco-d-assisi-in-anteprima-l-enciclica-sull-ambiente-laudato-si-mi-signore-1.216897?ref=HEF_RULLO">leaked by</a> the Italian newspaper <em>l’Espresso</em> on Monday. In it, the pope makes a human rights case for bold action on the related problems of climate change and poverty. He argues that the continued use of fossil fuels and the “unprecedented destruction of the ecosystem” pose “<a href="http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/jun/15/pope-francis-destruction-ecosystem-leaked-encyclical?CMP=share_btn_tw">grave consequences for all of us</a>,” especially the world’s poor—and he urges “<a href="http://www.wsj.com/articles/papal-draft-faults-most-global-warming-on-human-activity-1434389790">urgent</a>” action.</p>
<p>A Vatican representative <a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-06-15/draft-of-pope-s-climate-change-encyclical-leaked-by-magazine">called the leak</a> a “heinous act” and said that <a href="https://twitter.com/emorwee/status/610477970722025472">this version isn’t final</a>. Still, it seems fair to assume that this is fairly close to the document that will be officially released Thursday.</p>
<p>Almost immediately after the 192-page draft appeared online, climate Twitter exploded:</p>
<p>We wanted to avoid Google Translate curiosities such as this:</p>
<p>So <strong><em>Slate</em></strong> enlisted the help of culture intern Marissa Visci and photo editor Juliana Jimenez, both Italian speakers, to find the highlights. The quotes that follow are roughly paraphrased, but they should give you a sense of what to expect from the final English-language version.</p>
<p>Using section headlines such as “The Crisis and Consequences of Modern Anthropocentrism,” the text is both a practical and theological treatise on the ills of the 21<sup>st</sup> century. It’s pretty apocalyptic, which I suppose is appropriate coming from a pope. “The catastrophic predictions now can no longer be looked on with contempt and irony. We can leave to future generations too many ruins, deserts and filth,” the encyclical will say.</p>
<p>At one point, the pope writes, “The most extraordinary scientific progress and the most prodigious economic growth don’t necessarily give authentic social and moral progress to humanity.” That basic fact requires an “urgency and necessity of a radical change in human conduct” and “a dialogue about how we’re building the future of our planet.” A key theme is that humanity is “part of creation, and everything is connected”—“we are not God,” <a href="http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2015/06/15/3669712/pope-francis-encyclical-we-are-not-god/">the pope will say</a>. Throughout, the pope advocates for a radical transformation of human society, saying “the middle ground is only a small delay in disaster.”</p>
<p>The pope’s encyclical—a term used to describe a specific type of letter that describes the pope’s view on a significant topic—seems <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2015/06/14/world/europe/pope-to-explore-climates-effect-on-worlds-poor.html?smid=tw-share">written on behalf of the world’s poor</a>. In the letter, Francis cites both science and Scripture to make his case for climate action.</p>
<p>“We’ve glossed over the power relationship of a capitalistic society, and it’s put us on the path to not only destroy creation but humanity as well,” the pope will say.</p>
<p>The encyclical promises to form a cornerstone of Francis’ papacy. Upon his election, he chose his name in honor of St. Francis of Assisi—the <a href="http://www.catholic.org/saints/saint.php?saint_id=50">patron saint</a> of animals and ecology. But Francis isn’t the first pope to focus on the environment. Both of his predecessors, John Paul II and Benedict XVI, wrote extensively about the special burden environmental destruction places on the poor. However, neither so firmly inserted himself into the political debate on climate change. In September, Francis <a href="http://www.politico.com/story/2015/02/pope-address-us-congress-114939.html">will address</a> a joint session of Congress—the first time a pope has done so—as well as an assembly of world leaders <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2015/03/19/world/europe/pope-francis-to-speak-united-nations-annual-gathering-world-leaders.html">at the United Nations in New York</a>. Vatican officials have said the release of the encyclical is <a href="http://www.nationaljournal.com/energy/pope-francis-climate-change-encyclical-draft-leak-20150615?ref=t.co&amp;mrefid=walkingheader">specifically meant</a> to influence negotiations on a global climate agreement in Paris this December.</p>
<p>The pope, who repeatedly refers to Earth as our “home,” laments the “quickening of our pace of life” and says that “our problems are intimately linked to a throw-away culture.” He contrasts humanity’s “frantic pace” with the slower, natural pace of biological evolution and atmospheric changes, saying that “this change is affecting the dynamics of an already very complex system.”</p>
<p>No one is more affected by those changes than <a href="https://twitter.com/emorwee/status/610482249667096576">the world’s poor</a>, Francis will say. “There is an ecological debt that the North has to the South,” he says. While Francis puts the alleviation of world poverty on the same level of import as tackling climate change, he says that “poor countries [that] want their chance to grow along the same path of industrialization” should “rethink that path.” Instead, he said, “poor countries need to count on the help of the countries that have grown at the expense of much current pollution of the planet.” A $100 billion per year fund to aid the transition of poor countries to carbon-free economies is <a href="http://www.telesurtv.net/english/news/Climate-Short-Changed-Green-Groups-Seek-Funds-for-Poor-States-20150610-0112.html">a key negotiation point in international climate negotiations</a> at the moment.</p>
<p>The pope will specifically call out multinational corporations whose operations are “hugely contributing to the impoverishment of the land,” leaving pollution and “lifeless villages” in their wake.</p>
<p>To combat these threats, Francis proposes several lines of action that will “help us to escape the spiral of self-destruction in which we are sinking.” For instance, he calls solar power “ethical,” but he notes that it requires oversight to make sure its deployment in developing countries is fair.</p>
<p>Francis also specifically condemns carbon emissions trading schemes, most recently advocated for <a href="http://www.slate.com/articles/business/moneybox/2015/06/air_travel_and_climate_regulation_why_the_epa_might_let_big_aviation_off.html">by the global airline industry</a>, saying that while it appears to be a “quick and easy solution,” it instead “may become a device that allows you to support super-consumption.”</p>
<p>But he argues that the most important thing is to change the way we think about our relationship to the world: “Unfortunately, many efforts to seek concrete solutions to the environmental crisis are frustrated not just by the refusal of the powerful, but also because of lack of interest among the rest of us. Denial of the problem also occurs in wanting to be comfortable and a blind trust in technical solutions.”</p>
<p>The pope’s boldest proposal is for the creation of a “true world political authority” that would be tasked &quot;to manage the global economy; to revive economies hit by the crisis, to prevent deterioration of the present and subsequent imbalances; to achieve integral and timely disarmament, food security and peace; to ensure environmental protection and pursuant to the regulations for migratory flows.”</p>
<p>For these reasons, Francis says it’ll take more than technological and political intervention to create lasting solutions to climate change: “In a corrupt culture, we can’t believe that laws will be enough to change behaviors that affect the environment.”</p>
<p>To do that, Francis proposes getting out of your house and taking a hike, literally. “The environment is also a way of communing with the divine,” he will say. This has a root in recent science: <a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2015/06/08/how-your-neighbors-may-be-turning-you-into-an-environmentalist/">A recent study</a> showed that environmental values are shaped by interacting with friends and neighbors more than family, which can help to broaden perspectives. Francis even <a href="https://twitter.com/EricHolthaus/status/610543466930552833">proposes a new prayer</a> to facilitate our connection with nature.</p>
<p>“Living in environments deprived of harmony can cause inhuman behavior and leave inhabitants susceptible to corrupt organizations: for instance, the social anonymity of living in the suburbs. However, love is stronger, and once ego and selfishness are overcome, living in crowded conditions can also cause a sense of community and lead to improvements in this area,” the encyclical will say.</p>
<p>In <a href="http://environment.yale.edu/climate-communication/files/Global-Warming-Religion-March-2015.pdf">a recent survey</a>, American Catholics overwhelmingly acknowledge humanity’s impact on the global climate system—acknowledging climate change at an even greater rate than Americans as a whole—though they’re skeptical we’ll do enough to slow its effects. That’s the pessimistic disconnect Francis is aiming to change.&nbsp;</p>Mon, 15 Jun 2015 22:40:39 GMThttp://www.slate.com/blogs/future_tense/2015/06/15/pope_francis_in_leaked_climate_change_encyclical_we_re_on_a_path_to_destroy.htmlEric Holthaus2015-06-15T22:40:39ZTechnologyPope on Climate Change: We’re on a Path “to Not Only Destroy Creation but Humanity as Well”203150615005pope francisclimate changeEric HolthausFuture TenseFuture Tensehttp://www.slate.com/blogs/future_tense/2015/06/15/pope_francis_in_leaked_climate_change_encyclical_we_re_on_a_path_to_destroy.htmlfalsefalsefalsePope Francis in leaked climate change encyclical: We’re on a path to “destroy creation.”It’s pretty apocalyptic, which I suppose is appropriate coming from a pope.1519028539001AQ~~,AAAAAASoY90~,_gW1ZHvKG_2pKN0AJTySft1Irx-gT62t429350743100142757999680011519028539001AQ~~,AAAAAASoY90~,_gW1ZHvKG_2pKN0AJTySft1Irx-gT62t429350743100142757999680011519028539001AQ~~,AAAAAASoY90~,_gW1ZHvKG_2pKN0AJTySft1Irx-gT62t429350743100142757999680011519028539001AQ~~,AAAAAASoY90~,_gW1ZHvKG_2pKN0AJTySft1Irx-gT62t429350743100142757999680011519028539001AQ~~,AAAAAASoY90~,_gW1ZHvKG_2pKN0AJTySft1Irx-gT62t42935074310014275799968001Photo by Franco Origlia/Getty ImagesThe pope's message was a stark rebuke of global inequality and a call to &quot;rethink&quot; humanity's relationship with the Earth.New Report Finds the Best Way to Make Industry Care About Climate Change: Moneyhttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2015/06/12/mercer_study_on_climate_change_and_investment_risk_divestment_will_help.html
<p>A <a href="http://www.mercer.com.au/insights/focus/invest-in-climate-change.html">new report</a> out earlier this month by the global consulting firm Mercer is perhaps the most striking argument yet for fossil fuel divestment, written in the cold, calculated prose of international finance. Its very blunt conclusion: “Climate risk is inevitable. Some impacts on investment returns are inevitable.”</p>
<p>The report looks out to 2050, but its focus on the next 18 months to 10 years—and its emphasis on the unique risks to the fossil fuel industry—makes it especially relevant in the near-term. Specifically, the report advocates for “portfolio decarbonization”—aka divestment—and argues that by reducing your investment exposure to sensitive sectors of the economy (the report identifies utilities, real estate, timber, agriculture, but calls the fossil fuel industry the most risky) you can avoid holding “stranded assets” should world governments put caps on carbon emissions or extreme weather produce escalating damage.</p>
<p>In short, by ridding your portfolio of climate sensitive or fossil fuel intensive companies, you can make the world a better place, and make money at the same time. Climate deniers with fat bank accounts, <a href="http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2015/06/11/3668115/climate-change-deniers-money-losers/">consider this your chance</a> to change your tune—it’s OK to be selfish, to do it for the money, we won’t blame you.</p>
<p>The Mercer study’s heft is enhanced because it comes with the endorsements by some of the biggest investment funds in the world (with collective responsibility for more than $1.5 trillion), and its release was timed for maximum relevance in advance of <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/future_tense/2015/02/04/u_n_paris_climate_talks_even_the_architects_of_the_agreement_are_pessimistic.html">December’s global climate negotiations in Paris</a>, which are expected to result in the world’s first international agreement to limit greenhouse gases. The report is the most thorough to date about how various economic sectors will fare under different scenarios of climate action.</p>
<p>The best part of the report is the names it assigns to its climate scenarios: Transformation—corresponding to a world where ambitious near-term limits on carbon result in a rise in global temperatures of no more than 2&deg;C, in line with <a href="http://www.carbonbrief.org/blog/2014/12/two-degrees-a-selected-history-of-climate-change-speed-limit/">what scientists and policy experts say is the maximum “safe” amount of warming</a>, Coordination (3&deg;C), and Fragmentation (4&deg;C). These labels provide a very useful way of imagining how the world’s economy and political climate may morph over the coming few decades, and reflects the latest consensus science on the large-scale impacts—from a <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/future_tense/2014/04/13/ipcc_u_n_climate_report_fundamental_decarbonization_won_t_wreck_the_economy.html">heroic, immediate, nearly universal rejection</a> of the dangers of continued fossil fuel use in the most ambitious scenario to <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/future_tense/2014/03/30/ipcc_2014_u_n_climate_change_report_warns_of_dire_consequences.html">fragmenting nation-states</a> in a worst-case scenario. (For reference: The world’s current climate policies <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2015/06/08/g7_summit_climate_change_world_should_phase_out_fossil_fuels_by_2100.html">will likely result</a> in a 3.6&deg;C to 4.2&deg;C rise in global temperatures, a pace that’s actually <em>worse</em> than Mercer’s Fragmentation scenario at the top end.)</p>
<p>Those scenarios roughly correspond with <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/06/01/us-climatechange-paris-insight-idUSKBN0OH1G820150601">the options currently under consideration</a> by the world’s governments as they craft the blueprint for the meeting in Paris later this year. A 2&deg;C goal is <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/future_tense/2015/02/04/u_n_paris_climate_talks_even_the_architects_of_the_agreement_are_pessimistic.html">increasingly seen as out of reach</a> by the traditional top-down political process—unless public opinion rapidly shifts. That’s where the world’s investors come in.</p>
<p>Should the world get its act together, it would have a direct benefit for investors. “A 2&deg;C scenario does not have negative return implications for long-term diversified investors at a total portfolio level over the period modeled (to 2050).” That’s finance-speak for: If you want to make money, take ambitious action on climate change.</p>
<p>The corollary to that finding is equally relevant: If you’re an investor in the fossil fuel sector, ignore climate risk at your own peril. Interests in the fossil fuel industry <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/mar/25/fossil-fuel-firms-are-still-bankrolling-climate-denial-lobby-groups">have long been a wrench in the political process</a> of climate-friendly policies, but the Mercer study provides solid evidence that they’re the ones who stand to lose the most money in the next few years, regardless of our collective climate pathway.</p>Fri, 12 Jun 2015 21:30:07 GMThttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2015/06/12/mercer_study_on_climate_change_and_investment_risk_divestment_will_help.htmlEric Holthaus2015-06-12T21:30:07ZbriefingNew Report Finds the Best Way to Make Industry Care About Climate Change: Money227150612014divestmentclimate changeEric HolthausThe SlatestThe Slatesthttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2015/06/12/mercer_study_on_climate_change_and_investment_risk_divestment_will_help.htmlfalsefalsefalseNew study says fossil fuel divestment can help you get rich:"Climate deniers with fat bank accounts, consider this your chance to change your tune—it’s OK to be selfish, to do it for the money, we won’t blame you."Photo by Spencer Platt/Getty ImagesInvesting in fossil fuels is objectively bad for your portfolio, says a landmark new study from Mercer, a global consulting firm. Here, natural gas is flared off at a plant outside of the town of Cuero, Texas.The Pope’s Climate Encyclical Now Has an Epic Hollywood Trailerhttp://www.slate.com/blogs/future_tense/2015/06/12/pope_francis_climate_encyclical_now_with_it_s_own_hollywood_trailer.html
<p>If you’re like me and eagerly anticipating Pope Francis’ encyclical on climate change—due out Thursday, June 18—stop what you’re doing and watch this:</p>
<p>What’s going on here is nothing short of amazing. It’s probably the best video I’ve ever seen, on any topic, of any length (and yes, that includes <em><a href="http://www.amazon.com/dp/B007HJ84ZK/?tag=slatmaga-20">Game of Thrones</a></em>).</p>
<p>Put together by <a href="http://www.oc.org.br/">the Observat&oacute;rio do Clima</a>, a network of Brazilian nongovernmental organizations and advocates for action on climate change, the video pitches the forthcoming message—which has attracted <a href="http://www.rtcc.org/2015/06/11/papal-encyclical-to-have-major-impact-says-top-un-climate-official/">heavenly levels of hype</a>—as a silver bullet in an epic battle between the pope’s forces of climate justice and the evil fossil fuel industry.</p>
<p>The opening quote—“If we destroy creation, creation will destroy us”—is an actual line from <a href="http://www.news.va/en/news/pope-at-audience-if-we-destroy-creation-it-will-de">one of the pope’s recent sermons</a> on the environment. It is expected to form the heart of his argument in the forthcoming letter to the world’s Catholic churches.</p>
<p>It just gets better from there.</p>
<p>At one point, Jesus appears in the corner of a boxing ring as the pope prepares, saying, “The power of me compels you.&quot; You can’t make this stuff up—except apparently they did.</p>
<p>Seriously, just watch the video.</p>Fri, 12 Jun 2015 21:17:24 GMThttp://www.slate.com/blogs/future_tense/2015/06/12/pope_francis_climate_encyclical_now_with_it_s_own_hollywood_trailer.htmlEric Holthaus2015-06-12T21:17:24ZTechnologyThe Pope’s Climate Encyclical Now Has an Epic Hollywood Trailer203150612005pope francisclimate changeEric HolthausFuture TenseFuture Tensehttp://www.slate.com/blogs/future_tense/2015/06/12/pope_francis_climate_encyclical_now_with_it_s_own_hollywood_trailer.htmlfalsefalsefalseThe pope’s climate encyclical now has an epic Hollywood trailer. WATCH:What’s going on here is nothing short of amazing.1519028539001AQ~~,AAAAAASoY90~,_gW1ZHvKG_2pKN0AJTySft1Irx-gT62t429350743100142757999680011519028539001AQ~~,AAAAAASoY90~,_gW1ZHvKG_2pKN0AJTySft1Irx-gT62t429350743100142757999680011519028539001AQ~~,AAAAAASoY90~,_gW1ZHvKG_2pKN0AJTySft1Irx-gT62t429350743100142757999680011519028539001AQ~~,AAAAAASoY90~,_gW1ZHvKG_2pKN0AJTySft1Irx-gT62t429350743100142757999680011519028539001AQ~~,AAAAAASoY90~,_gW1ZHvKG_2pKN0AJTySft1Irx-gT62t42935074310014275799968001Photo by Franco Origlia/Getty ImagesIs Pope Francis Earth's newest superhero? Watch this video to find out.The Weather Channel Confronts Republicans on Climate Changehttp://www.slate.com/blogs/future_tense/2015/06/12/the_weather_channel_s_new_video_series_on_climate_change_features_25_stark.html
<p>On Wednesday, the Weather Channel launched a dramatic campaign it says is intended to help shift the climate change conversation from science to solutions.</p>
<p>The series of short videos, called Climate 25, is surprisingly political for a venue like the Weather Channel, and most are aimed at making the case for urgent action from a conservative, Republican angle. Among <a href="http://weather.climate25.com/voices/">the featured speakers</a> are U.S. Army Gen. Charles H. Jacoby (Ret.); Henry Paulson, a former CEO of Goldman Sachs who served as secretary of the treasury under President George W. Bush from 2006 to 2009; and Paul Polman, the CEO of Unilever. At one point, Christine Todd Whitman, the EPA administrator under George W. Bush, addresses Republicans directly, saying, “It’s our issue.”</p>
<p>The 25 black-and-white segments seem inspired by TED talks—short, two- to three- minute video essays by influential speakers with interesting perspectives. They were produced with help from one of the producers of <em>Showtime</em>’s Emmy-winning documentary <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/bad_astronomy/2014/03/28/years_of_living_dangerously_showtime_climate_change_documentary.html"><em>Years of Living Dangerously</em></a>. Often, the speakers in Climate 25 make direct eye contact with the camera, and the effect is gripping and memorable—like a blunt Ad Council PSA. Taken together, the series is one of the best-produced summaries of climate risk I’ve ever seen.</p>
<p>I asked the Weather Channel president, David Clark, about the apparent shift toward explicitly engaging conservatives. “We felt that we needed to give a stage to some of the more courageous voices on the right,” he said, despite the fact that “we are not policy experts; we are scientists.”</p>
<p>The Weather Channel’s TV audience <a href="http://www.thewire.com/politics/2012/01/republican-watch-weather-channel/48036/">skews older and more conservative</a> than the general public, and that’s exactly the people who are most resistant to taking action on climate change, <a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2014/11/19/the-polls-are-clear-younger-republicans-support-action-on-climate-change/">per recent polling data</a>. (<em>Prospectors</em>, a Weather Channel reality show about looking for gold and gems in the Rocky Mountains, was among <a href="http://www.ew.com/article/2014/11/03/republican-democrats-favorite-tv-shows">Republicans’ most beloved</a> in 2014.) With Climate 25, the Weather Channel made a conscious decision to confront these viewers head on, using voices the channel’s executives thought would be relatable.</p>
<p>Neil Katz, the vice president of digital content and editor in chief of Weather.com, said, “Fundamentally, we don’t see it as a political project. … We cover the science of climate change, and increasingly, we cover the impacts of climate change.”</p>
<p>The network has frequently made the connection between extreme weather and climate on air, and last fall, it released a <a href="http://www.weather.com/science/environment/news/global-warming-weather-channel-position-statement-20141029">public position statement</a> that warned of “radical and irreversible changes.” But this is the closest it’s come to outright advocacy on climate action.</p>
<p>In keeping with the often <a href="http://www.buzzfeed.com/charliewarzel/weather-channel-editor-in-chief-america-loves-a-good-apocaly#.ippbljzlX">apocalyptic tone of the Weather Channel’s website</a>, most of the messages are framed with bold phrases, like “this is the beginning of real trouble in our world” and “the status quo is long gone.” Still, there are a few cheesy moments, like Polman saying the world’s business leaders can actually stand to make money by acting on climate—“have your cake and eat it, too”—while taking a big bite out of a cupcake.</p>
<p>Some of the most powerful clips, like the one below made by a Syrian refugee, talk about how climate change is already affecting human health, national security, and the economy.</p>
<p>Over the last year, the Weather Channel has <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/future_tense/2014/04/08/weather_channel_cuts_back_on_reality_tv_makes_peace_with_directv.html">scaled back</a> on kind-of-weather-related reality programming like <em>Fat Guys in the Woods</em> and <em>Highway Thru Hell</em> after <a href="http://www.slate.com/articles/technology/future_tense/2014/01/weather_channel_directv_carriage_dispute_an_interview_with_david_kenny.html">high-profile spats with cable providers</a>. But it still relies on a <a href="http://www.buzzfeed.com/charliewarzel/weather-channel-editor-in-chief-america-loves-a-good-apocaly#.okqpX6aXK">clickbait-heavy Web presence</a> to drive revenue in a rapidly changing market for weather information. Its free mobile app is <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/weather-channel-mobile-app-stats-cable-channel-2014-1">one of the most popular on the market</a>, and the company has been a master at squeezing extra ad revenue out of localized weather forecast information <a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/bw/articles/2014-10-09/weather-channels-web-mobile-growth-leads-to-advertising-insights">using algorithms that predict consumer behavior</a>—like an increased preference for raspberries in Miami on certain January mornings.</p>
<p>The video clips are set to appear on the Web, mobile, Facebook, and in five thematic “mini-episodes” during live programming on air through June 14.</p>Fri, 12 Jun 2015 12:35:00 GMThttp://www.slate.com/blogs/future_tense/2015/06/12/the_weather_channel_s_new_video_series_on_climate_change_features_25_stark.htmlEric Holthaus2015-06-12T12:35:00ZTechnologyThe Weather Channel Confronts Republicans on Climate Change203150612001climate changetelevisionEric HolthausFuture TenseFuture Tensehttp://www.slate.com/blogs/future_tense/2015/06/12/the_weather_channel_s_new_video_series_on_climate_change_features_25_stark.htmlfalsefalsefalseYou'll never guess how SHOCKING the Weather Channel's new series is (spoiler: shocking!)You'll never guess how SHOCKING the Weather Channel's new #Climate25 series is (spoiler: really shocking)1519028538001AQ~~,AAAAAASoY90~,_gW1ZHvKG_1U0LqDiRqg6y9siD7-Z_bO42911301160011519028538001AQ~~,AAAAAASoY90~,_gW1ZHvKG_1U0LqDiRqg6y9siD7-Z_bO42911301160011519028538001AQ~~,AAAAAASoY90~,_gW1ZHvKG_1U0LqDiRqg6y9siD7-Z_bO42911301160011519028538001AQ~~,AAAAAASoY90~,_gW1ZHvKG_1U0LqDiRqg6y9siD7-Z_bO42911301160011519028538001AQ~~,AAAAAASoY90~,_gW1ZHvKG_1U0LqDiRqg6y9siD7-Z_bO42911301160011519028538001AQ~~,AAAAAASoY90~,_gW1ZHvKG_1U0LqDiRqg6y9siD7-Z_bO42911301160011519028538001AQ~~,AAAAAASoY90~,_gW1ZHvKG_1U0LqDiRqg6y9siD7-Z_bO42911301160011519028538001AQ~~,AAAAAASoY90~,_gW1ZHvKG_1U0LqDiRqg6y9siD7-Z_bO42911437270011519028538001AQ~~,AAAAAASoY90~,_gW1ZHvKG_1U0LqDiRqg6y9siD7-Z_bO42911437270011519028538001AQ~~,AAAAAASoY90~,_gW1ZHvKG_1U0LqDiRqg6y9siD7-Z_bO42911437270011519028538001AQ~~,AAAAAASoY90~,_gW1ZHvKG_1U0LqDiRqg6y9siD7-Z_bO42911437270011519028538001AQ~~,AAAAAASoY90~,_gW1ZHvKG_1U0LqDiRqg6y9siD7-Z_bO42911437270011519028538001AQ~~,AAAAAASoY90~,_gW1ZHvKG_1U0LqDiRqg6y9siD7-Z_bO42911437270011519028538001AQ~~,AAAAAASoY90~,_gW1ZHvKG_1U0LqDiRqg6y9siD7-Z_bO4291143727001Courtesy the Weather ChannelThe Weather Channel has a new video series of stark messages on climate change aimed mostly at conservatives.Once-in-a-Lifetime Photograph Shows Twin Tornadoes Over Coloradohttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2015/06/08/tornado_season_rare_photograph_shows_two_tornadoes_and_supercell_all_at.html
<p>On the morning of June 4, weather photographer Kelly DeLay woke up intending to take this photograph. He didn’t think he’d actually do it.</p>
<p>“I’ve been trying to get a shot like this for a number of years,” DeLay told me. “It’s very difficult to do.”</p>
<p>Two tornadoes emerging from the same parent thunderstorm is <a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2015/06/08/photo-one-amazing-supercell-two-incredible-tornadoes/">a rare occurrence</a>, but capturing them both on film <em>in addition to the supercell that spawned them</em> is almost unheard of. “There’s a few people around in my circles that have said that this is a shot of a lifetime, you may never see this again, and I believe them,” DeLay said.</p>
<p>DeLay’s shot, <a href="https://iso.500px.com/storm-chaser-kelly-delay-just-captured-the-shot-of-a-lifetime/">taken near</a> Simla, Colorado, reminds me of the annotated hand drawings of conceptualized severe weather in my weather textbooks back in college. For a good example, <a href="http://www.spc.noaa.gov/faq/tornado/suprcell.gif">take a look at this schematic</a> of an “Idealized view of a classic supercell, looking west” from the National Severe Storms Laboratory.</p>
<p>The only difference is, DeLay’s storm had <em>two</em> tornadoes at the same time. That makes this storm, in particular, even more rare from a meteorological perspective.</p>
<p>To get the shot, DeLay followed an atypical storm-chasing philosophy. He doesn’t like to get too close, instead preferring to capture the storm as a whole. That’s a welcome contrast to the <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/future_tense/2014/06/19/pilger_nebraska_tornado_photo_why_stormchasing_has_become_unethical.html">extreme persona</a> that modern storm chasing has acquired, thanks to reality TV.</p>
<p>Plus, it makes for better photographs. “When you get in close, you really don’t see anything that’s going on with the storm,” DeLay said.</p>
<p>Last year, DeLay wrapped up his award-winning five-year-long <a href="http://www.clouds365.com/">Clouds 365 project</a>, which he capped off with a <a href="https://iso.500px.com/15-awe-inspiring-supercells-shot-by-storm-chaser-kelly-delay/">one-of-a-kind family portrait</a>.</p>
<p>Seven tornadoes <a href="http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/150604_rpts.html">were reported</a> in Colorado on June 4, including the one <strong><em>Slate</em></strong>’s Phil Plait <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/bad_astronomy/2015/06/05/colorado_weather_tornadoes_in_boulder_county.html">saw near Longmont</a>.</p>Mon, 08 Jun 2015 21:13:59 GMThttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2015/06/08/tornado_season_rare_photograph_shows_two_tornadoes_and_supercell_all_at.htmlEric Holthaus2015-06-08T21:13:59ZbriefingOnce-in-a-Lifetime Photograph Shows Twin Tornadoes Over Colorado227150608011tornado seasonEric HolthausThe SlatestThe Slatesthttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2015/06/08/tornado_season_rare_photograph_shows_two_tornadoes_and_supercell_all_at.htmlfalsefalsefalse"This is a shot of a lifetime": Twin tornadoes plus their parent supercell in Colorado"This is a shot of a lifetime."Kelly DeLayA textbook supercell thunderstorm—complete with twin tornadoes—seen from a rare point of view.World’s Richest Countries Decide to Take It Slow on Climate Changehttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2015/06/08/g7_summit_climate_change_world_should_phase_out_fossil_fuels_by_2100.html
<p>In a <a href="https://www.g7germany.de/Content/DE/_Anlagen/G8_G20/2015-06-08-g7-abschluss-eng.pdf?__blob=publicationFile&amp;v=5">joint declaration</a> from the G7 summit, leaders of the world’s richest countries called for a global phase-out of fossil fuels for the first time on Monday. That sounds great, but unfortunately, they’re talking about a lax timescale—“over the course of this century.” </p>
<p>The leaders also committed to “doing our part to achieve a low-carbon global economy in the long-term,” though they didn’t announce any increased ambitions in cutting carbon in their own economies. Reports from the two-day meeting in Germany indicated that <a href="http://www.rtcc.org/2015/06/08/g7-poised-for-historic-call-to-phase-out-fossil-fuel-emissions/?utm_source=twitterfeed&amp;utm_medium=twitter">bolder statements were considered</a>, including a call to decarbonize the G7 economies by 2050, but they were ultimately dropped, likely <a href="http://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/canada-japan-blocking-consensus-at-g7-on-greenhouse-gas-reductions-1.2411371">under pressure</a> from Canada and Japan.</p>
<p>Though <a href="http://www.carbonbrief.org/blog/2015/06/g7-leaders-target-zero-carbon-economy/">today's statement is bold</a>, the focus on the very long-term is disappointing. The G7 meeting <a href="http://www.rtcc.org/2015/04/01/germanys-g7-can-ensure-paris-climate-deal-is-a-success/">was billed as a showcase</a> for Germany’s chancellor, Angela Merkel, to assert leadership on climate change in advance of key negotiations in December, when world leaders will gather in Paris and are expected to sign the first-ever global agreement on climate change. Expectations for an ambitious outcome in Paris <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/future_tense/2015/02/04/u_n_paris_climate_talks_even_the_architects_of_the_agreement_are_pessimistic.html">have been waning</a> in recent months, and today’s G7 statement doesn’t help things much.</p>
<p>Environmental organizations said that setting a goal of decarbonization by the end of the century is a signal to business that further investment in fossil fuel infrastructure could lead to “<a href="http://www.carbonbrief.org/blog/2014/06/the-iea-weighs-in-on-stranded-assets-not-just-a-green-conspiracy/">stranded assets</a>.” May Boeve, the executive director of 350.org, said, “If you’re still holding onto fossil fuel stocks, you’re betting on the past. As today’s announcement makes clear, the future belongs to renewables.” However, nothing terribly new has actually happened: Many climate projections were already using the relatively low-ambition G7 target.</p>
<p>According to the independent <a href="http://climateactiontracker.org/global.html">Climate Action Tracker</a>, the world’s current policies will result in global warming of 3.6 to 4.2 degrees Celsius by 2100. That’s just half a degree less than it predicts we would see if nothing changed, and the consequences of half-action are <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2010/nov/29/climate-change-scientists-4c-temperature">truly frightening</a>. Even the current pledges of the G7 countries, if converted into effective policies, <a href="http://climateactiontracker.org/countries.html">likely wouldn’t be enough</a> for the world to stay under the <a href="http://www.carbonbrief.org/blog/2014/12/two-degrees-a-selected-history-of-climate-change-speed-limit/">previously agreed-upon goal</a> of keeping warming to 2 degrees Celsius.</p>
<p>The G7—which is comprised of Italy, Germany, the United Kingdom, France, the United States, Canada, and Japan, plus the European Union—were responsible for 59 percent of historical global carbon dioxide emissions as of 2011, <a href="http://cait.wri.org/historic/Country%20GHG%20Emissions?indicator%5B%5D=Total%20CO2%20Emissions%20Excluding%20Land-Use%20Change%20and%20Forestry%20Cumulative&amp;year%5B%5D=2011&amp;sortDir=desc&amp;chartType=geo">according to</a> the World Resources Institute. That percentage is falling as developing countries, mainly China, rapidly expand their economies. Still, this outsized share means the world’s richest countries have a responsibility to help the world transition to a zero carbon economy as quickly as possible.</p>
<p><a href="http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/jun/08/five-g7-nations-increased-their-coal-use-over-a-five-year-period-research-shows">A new report from Oxfam</a> shows that five of the seven countries—including Germany—have increased their use of coal over the last five years. Those that didn’t—the U.S. and Canada—are in the midst of an oil and gas renaissance and largely offset their decreased coal use with other fossil fuels. Germany’s bold <em>Energiewende</em> plan to transform its energy sector away from nuclear energy has at least partially resulted in temporarily <a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2014-04-14/coal-rises-vampire-like-as-german-utilities-seek-survival">increased emissions from its coal sector</a> to fill the gap as more solar and wind power comes online.</p>
<p>On the bright side, the G7 statement did make progress in outlining concrete steps to secure a $100 billion per year fund to help poor countries prepare for and respond to climate change. It also called for 400 million of the world’s most vulnerable people to have access to disaster insurance by 2020.</p>Mon, 08 Jun 2015 16:55:34 GMThttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2015/06/08/g7_summit_climate_change_world_should_phase_out_fossil_fuels_by_2100.htmlEric Holthaus2015-06-08T16:55:34ZbriefingWorld’s Richest Countries Decide to Take It Slow on Climate Change227150608006climate changeglobal warminggermanyangela merkelEric HolthausThe SlatestThe Slatesthttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2015/06/08/g7_summit_climate_change_world_should_phase_out_fossil_fuels_by_2100.htmlfalsefalsefalseThe G7 decides to take it slow on climate change:This is what it means to say one thing and do another.Photo by Carl Court/Getty ImagesThe leaders of the world's richest countries wave goodbye to a safe global climate on June 7, 2015 at Schloss Elmau near Garmisch-Partenkirchen, Germany.A Hiatus on “Hiatus”http://www.slate.com/articles/health_and_science/science/2015/06/global_warming_hiatus_new_data_show_there_s_no_pause_in_global_warming.html
<p>On Thursday <a href="http://www.sciencemag.org/content/early/2015/06/05/science.aaa5632.abstract">a new study</a> led by the director of the leading U.S. climate data center was <a href="http://qz.com/147049/as-it-turns-out-the-global-warming-pause-doesnt-exist/">the latest</a> to show evidence that global warming is—shocker—continuing. My <strong><em>Slate</em></strong> colleague Phil Plait <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/bad_astronomy/2015/06/05/global_warming_hiatus_new_research_shows_it_doesn_t_exist.html">has more</a>, but the main point is: Talk of a “hiatus” in climate change has gotten blown way out of proportion.</p>
<p>From the study:</p>
<blockquote>
The central estimate for the rate of warming during the first 15 years of the 21st century is at least as great as the last half of the 20th century. These results do not support the notion of a “slowdown” in the increase of global surface temperature.
</blockquote>
<p>The study appeared in <em>Science</em>, one of the most prestigious scientific journals, and was accompanied by a press conference from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration—both rare for what was <a href="http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2015/06/noaa-temperature-record-updates-and-the-hiatus/">essentially a routine update</a> in a widely used global temperature data set.</p>
<p>A <a href="http://mashable.com/2015/06/04/global-warming-hiatus-study/">survey of climate scientists</a> unaffiliated with the latest paper suggested that its findings probably <a href="https://twitter.com/rahmstorf/status/606449272209473537">aren’t as big of a deal</a> as the paper makes them seem, and furthermore, it probably wasn’t a smart idea to focus on such a relatively short timespan in the first place. <a href="http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2015/06/noaa-temperature-record-updates-and-the-hiatus/?wpmp_tp=1">Writing</a> on the climate science blog <em>RealClimate</em>, Gavin Schmidt, director of NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies (who oversees one of the other primary global temperature data sets), said: “Part of the problem here is simply semantic.”</p>
<p>The fact that we’re even talking about this new study is a sign of the influence of global warming contrarians, according to a <a href="http://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2015-05/uob-hcs050615.php">separate piece of recent research</a>. That study proposes a psychological phenomenon the authors call “seepage”: Manufactured doubt, funded largely by the fossil fuel industry, has unwittingly entered the minds of well-meaning climate scientists, who then unintentionally reinforce a misleading message. In short, all this talk about a hiatus emboldens the hiatus mongers.</p>
<p>That’s helped “The Pause” or “The Hiatus” become arguably the most successful climate denial meme. It’s been so successful that it <a href="http://www.motherjones.com/environment/2013/09/global-warming-pause-ipcc">even made it into</a> the most recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report, the gold standard for climate science.</p>
<p>Before this week’s paper was released, I spoke with a few leading climate scientists (who’ve all authored papers on “The Pause”) for their perspective on whether or not they felt their work was influenced, even unknowingly, by “seepage.”</p>
<p>In general they agreed that there’s been a feedback loop between scientists’ honest investigation of this phenomenon over the past several years and the media’s willingness to indulge in the drama of whether or not a slowdown in warming was occurring.</p>
<p>Kevin Trenberth, a climate scientist at the National Center for Atmospheric Research, acknowledges that his research has been shaped by the debate over the pause, and has specifically tried to counter false claims by climate deniers made in the media.</p>
<blockquote>
Yes, I have certainly been influenced by deniers and their commentary, and I have written several articles rebutting flawed articles. … It is indeed very annoying when the media pick up on one denier point that has no basis and gives it great attention.&nbsp; So I have no doubt that “seepage” occurs.
</blockquote>
<p>Max Boykoff, a professor at the University of Colorado who focuses on climate policy, says this exact scenario is part of the reason that false claims about climate change get more attention than they deserve:</p>
<blockquote>
The amplification of discussions of a “pause” can also be seen in a more nefarious light, where the inordinate attention devoted to it—particularly through mainstream press accounts—then serves to distract from more productive discussions of diagnoses and action on climate change.
</blockquote>
<p>Michael Mann, professor of meteorology at Penn State, agrees:</p>
<blockquote>
The whole concept of a “pause” or “hiatus” arose because of a concerted framing effort by climate change deniers and contrarians, and many in the climate research community fell victim to that framing all too predictably.
</blockquote>
<p><a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2015/04/15/_2015_is_hot_a_weirdly_warm_pacific_ocean_is_set_to_make_this_year_the_warmest.html">Looking at the last year or so of temperature data</a>, all this talk of a pause may quickly be history.</p>Fri, 05 Jun 2015 21:30:10 GMThttp://www.slate.com/articles/health_and_science/science/2015/06/global_warming_hiatus_new_data_show_there_s_no_pause_in_global_warming.htmlEric Holthaus2015-06-05T21:30:10ZHow global warming cranks influence legitimate science.Health and ScienceHow Cranks Influence Legitimate Climate Science100150605022climate changeglobal warmingEric HolthausSciencehttp://www.slate.com/articles/health_and_science/science/2015/06/global_warming_hiatus_new_data_show_there_s_no_pause_in_global_warming.htmlfalsefalsefalseHow cranks influence climate science: seepage. By @EricHolthaus:Unfortunately, there is no global warming pause.Photo by Justin Sullivan/Getty ImagesA security guard walks the perimeter of the Almaden Reservoir on Jan. 28, 2014, in San Jose.Just Plane Wronghttp://www.slate.com/articles/business/moneybox/2015/06/air_travel_and_climate_regulation_why_the_epa_might_let_big_aviation_off.html
<p>The airline industry wants us to think it’s special when it comes to climate change. It’s not.</p>
<p>Sure, it can reliably hurtle us through the air—7 miles off the ground—at near-supersonic speeds. Sure, tailpipe emissions from aircraft are difficult to track because planes frequently cross international borders. And sure, planes are a critical component of our 21<sup>st</sup>-century economy. But that doesn’t give them the right to ruin the planet’s atmosphere.</p>
<p>To be clear: Flying is a luxury. <a href="http://www.worldwatch.org/node/4346">Just 5 percent</a> of the world’s population has ever set foot on an airplane. Of the almost <a href="https://www.rita.dot.gov/bts/sites/rita.dot.gov.bts/files/publications/omnistats/volume_03_issue_03/pdf/entire.pdf">20 percent</a> of Americans who have never flown, their household income is much more likely than average to be less than $30,000. But as global incomes rise, so does the demand for quick travel. As a result, global aviation is <a href="https://www.worldwildlife.org/press-releases/nobel-prize-winners-to-icao-carbon-emissions-have-a-cost">the fastest-growing major source</a> of greenhouse gas emissions on the planet.</p>
<p>As early as this Friday, the <em>New York Times</em> <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2015/06/03/business/energy-environment/epa-to-set-new-limits-on-airplane-emissions.html?smprod=nytcore-iphone&amp;smid=nytcore-iphone-share&amp;_r=1">reports</a>, the Environmental Protection Agency will issue an “endangerment finding” that the aviation sector contributes significantly to climate change. Under the Clean Air Act, the finding will require, for the first time, that airlines be regulated based on their environmental impact. Good news, right? Maybe. There’s a lot more to this story.</p>
<p>The finding has been a long time coming—eight years—and is arriving only after relentless <a href="http://earthjustice.org/news/press/2011/court-rules-epa-must-act-on-aircraft-emissions">legal prodding</a> by environmental organizations. In contrast to <a href="http://www.epa.gov/otaq/climate/regs-light-duty.htm">cars and trucks</a>, commercial aviation remains essentially unregulated when it comes to the environment. That will eventually change with this ruling, though not by much. And nothing will change immediately. The EPA will begin a period of public comment triggered by the endangerment finding, though policy experts with knowledge of the process worry the EPA has already made up its mind about what’s next.</p>
<p>“It looks very much like the bar is going to be so low that it’s basically going to pass all currently operating aircraft,” says Sarah Burt, a staff attorney at Earthjustice who represented a group of environmental organizations in the 2007 lawsuit that got things rolling. “It’s de facto useless … a business-as-usual standard.”</p>
<p>Considering the projected growth of the industry, the likely lax regulation means the EPA is letting the airline industry off the hook. “The result is going to be a significant rise in emissions,” says Burt. “It does not reflect an ambitious target based on what is possible in the industry.”</p>
<p>Burt says the eventual regulation is <a href="http://thehill.com/business-a-lobbying/243984-turbulence-ahead-for-epa-on-airplane-pollution-cuts">likely to be based</a> almost entirely on recommendations from the United Nations’ International Civil Aviation Organization, a group with a long and disappointing history when it comes to fulfilling one of its primary objectives: making sure that skies stay clean. The ICAO, which is dominated by industry and protectionist member states, has a terrible track record on climate. In the 18 years&nbsp;since the Kyoto Protocol—the world’s first climate change treaty—the ICAO has failed to adopt a&nbsp;single binding climate policy, along the way rejecting fuel taxes, emission&nbsp;charges, efficiency standards, and global emissions trading.</p>
<p>In early 2016 the ICAO is scheduled to issue guidance to its member countries, which includes the United States, on aviation efficiency and an emissions-trading platform for the industry (though there are <a href="http://www.rtcc.org/2015/05/29/aviation-industry-carbon-cutting-plans-running-late/">fresh signs of delay</a>). The problem is that Boeing, Airbus, and some of the world’s major airlines, represented by the International Air Transport Association (which claims 250 of the world’s biggest airlines), helped write the forthcoming documents, Burt says. The Montreal headquarters of IATA and ICAO are <a href="https://www.iata.org/policy/icao-assembly/pages/index.aspx">right across the street</a> from each other. There’s little to practically distinguish the two entities.</p>
<p>So why is the EPA settling on regulations that will likely go easy on the aviation industry? &nbsp;Burt sees an obvious culprit. “Boeing is, by dollar value, the United States’ largest exporter,” she says. “The political clout of Boeing is huge.”</p>
<p>Vera Pardee, the senior counsel for the Center for Biological Diversity, a party to the 2007 lawsuit, says recent related action by the European Union to force the industry into reducing its emissions via a carbon-trading platform also fell victim to industry influence. For <a href="http://ec.europa.eu/clima/policies/transport/aviation/documentation_en.htm">nearly a decade</a>, the European Union worked to establish an emissions-trading scheme that it wanted to apply to all aircraft landing in EU territory. In 2012, as the proposal was being finalized, Pardee says China, Brazil, and other countries threatened to cancel their orders with Airbus, which is based in France. Likely wanting to protect the bottom line of one of its biggest companies, the European Union <a href="http://europa.eu/rapid/press-release_MEMO-12-854_en.htm">agreed</a> to “stop the clock” in 2013 on its enforcement of aviation emissions. According to Pardee, that’s evidence of the “amazing influence that the industry has over this entire process, and continues to have.”</p>
<p>In an attempt to head off future lawsuits, Burt says, the EPA is “very carefully trying to thread the needle between its domestic obligations under the Clean Air Act and its participation in the international negotiation process for developing international standards.” She worries that a new rule based on ICAO standards would do “effectively nothing” to reduce aviation emissions. Bottom line: Expect more legal action.</p>
<p>Of course, the industry disagrees. “We have a very aggressive program for continuing to address our greenhouse gas emissions,” says Nancy Young, vice president for environmental affairs with Airlines for America, the United States’ largest airline industry lobby group. “Having the standard set by an agreement of countries … is a time-honored way of making sure these standards apply around the world.”</p>
<p>Young says the U.S. airline industry has committed to “carbon-neutral growth” from 2020 onward. To achieve that, it plans to rely on improvements in technology, operations, and infrastructure—including a <a href="http://www.eenews.net/stories/1059974724">significant uptake in biofuels</a> derived from municipal solid waste, algae, agricultural waste, and oil seed. “We are not relying on the CO2 aircraft standard by itself,” Young says.</p>
<p>The ICAO “industry emissions reduction roadmap” to 2050 <a href="http://www.icao.int/Newsroom/Presentation%20Slides/Achieving%20Climate%20Change%20Goals%20for%20International%20Aviation.pdf">assumes a massive growth in the use of biofuels</a>, a field that doesn’t currently exist on a commercial scale. The roadmap also relies heavily on “market-based measures” to offset aviation’s emissions in other sectors of the economy. In other words, the airline industry is factoring in participation in emissions-offset schemes—which, in theory, redistribute emissions reductions to sectors of the economy that can more easily achieve them, but in practice have <a href="http://scribol.com/news-and-politics/carbon-offsetting-problems-and-alternatives">many problems</a> as a <a href="http://blogs.edf.org/climatetalks/2013/03/04/mind-the-gap-airlines-cant-meet-emissions-reductions-goals-without-global-market-based-measure-report-finds/">primary source</a> of emissions reductions. If instead the industry adopted stricter efficiency standards, there’d be much less need to resort to these sorts of measures that haven’t yet been tested on the necessary scale.</p>
<p>Young is skeptical that significant emissions reductions would be possible without market-based measures. “What do you want us to do? Do you want us to suppress demand for flying? Do you want people to not see grandparents or bring critical goods to earthquake zones?” she says. “There’s only so much you can do to drive an aircraft to be more fuel-efficient.”</p>
<p>That’s true, but according to Dan Rutherford, aviation program director at the International Council on Clean Transportation, there’s no technical excuse why we can’t have a drastically more fuel-efficient airline industry in just a decade or so. The most optimistic scenarios show the potential for global aviation to improve fuel efficiency quite quickly.</p>
<p>By making use of lighter materials (like the carbon fiber-reinforced Boeing 787) and better engines (like geared turbofan and open rotor designs), Rutherford says it’s possible for the airline industry to improve fuel efficiency by up to 40 percent by 2020 and up to 80 percent by 2030 using traditional tube-and-wing aircraft designs, relative to 2000 levels. (Airlines managed about 11 percent improvement between 2000 and 2014.) Thinking longer-term, <a href="http://www.nasa.gov/topics/aeronautics/features/bwb_main.html">blended wing designs</a> currently being explored by NASA could triple fuel efficiency. “The near-term potential for aircraft improvements is surprisingly large,” says Rutherford.</p>
<p>Instead, ICAO is likely to grandfather in all currently-in-production aircraft, and require that airlines adopt 2016 state-of-the-art fuel efficiency measures only for future designs. Given the 25-to-30–year lifetime of commercial aircraft, “it’s hard to imagine the approach that ICAO is taking as delivering much in the way of additional improvement,” says Rutherford.</p>
<p>The industry’s resistance to more ambitious standards also flies in the face of the significant strides it’s actually made. Over the last few decades, U.S. airlines have steadily improved their fuel efficiency to the point that, <a href="http://www.theicct.org/blogs/staff/choose-your-own-adventure-plane-car-train-or-bus">in some cases</a>, it’s now actually better for the environment to fly than drive the same distance alone. (Taking the bus is <a href="http://www.slate.com/articles/technology/future_tense/2014/02/why_a_meteorologist_took_the_bus_for_28_hours_instead_of_flying.html">always better than either</a>.) But that steady progress is stalling out. In 2013, U.S. airline efficiency didn’t improve <a href="http://www.biologicaldiversity.org/news/press_releases/2014/aircraft-emissions-11-19-2014.html">at all</a>. Over the <a href="http://myrenaultzoe.com/index.php/2014/04/how-and-when-will-electric-cars-replace-fossil-fuelled-cars-part-2/">coming decade or so</a>, as electric cars and buses powered by renewable energy gain favor, aviation emissions will likely get worse and worse by comparison. <a href="https://www.faa.gov/nextgen/">Modernizing</a> air traffic control systems and further squeezing more people on to planes will help a little.</p>
<p>Since there’s currently <a href="http://www.technologyreview.com/news/516576/once-a-joke-battery-powered-airplanes-are-nearing-reality/">no realistic way</a> to completely power an airplane by electricity—the engines are too energy-intensive, and the batteries are too heavy—the industry is wedded to oil like almost none other. And once you factor in the industry’s tremendous growth worldwide, it explains why total worldwide airplane emissions <a href="http://ec.europa.eu/clima/policies/transport/aviation/index_en.htm">are soaring</a>. And that’s what really terrifies the experts.</p>
<p>In even the most optimistic scenarios, by 2050, aviation could amount for as much as <a href="http://www.cate.mmu.ac.uk/projects/shipping-and-aviation-emissions-in-the-context-of-a-2c-emission-pathway/">15 percent</a> of global emissions. (It’s now just 2 percent.) In the U.S., under a “<a href="http://unsdsn.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/DDPP_Digit_updated.pdf">deep decarbonization pathway</a>,” aviation could account for as much as 50 percent of all transportation emissions by 2050. (It’s now about 10 percent.)</p>
<p>Global aviation volume is growing so quickly—about 5 percent per year—that it’s overwhelming gains in efficiency—about 1.5 percent per year. Should that trend continue, it will become more and more important for governments to crack down on the industry, which just isn’t currently happening.</p>
<p>That’s where regulations come in.</p>
<p>In an era of volatile oil prices, airlines theoretically have every incentive to curb fuel use on their own. But they aren’t. Aviation engineers are <a href="http://www.wired.com/2012/10/can-we-build-a-more-efficient-airplane-not-really-says-physics/">butting up against the laws of physics</a> (but, more likely, the economics of an industry with <a href="http://www.economist.com/blogs/economist-explains/2014/02/economist-explains-5">incredibly tight profit margins</a>). That means aircraft and engine manufacturers are cranking out old designs longer than ever before, and that’s slowing down <a href="http://www.theicct.org/sites/default/files/publications/ICCT_Aircraft_Efficiency_final.pdf">the pace of efficiency growth</a>. “It’s incredibly simple to see: If you fly a bunch of aircraft designed 30 years ago, you are polluting by far more than you have to,” says Pardee.</p>
<p>Still, there’s one more rarely discussed way of decreasing emissions: fly less. In 2013 my wife and I <a href="http://www.slate.com/articles/technology/future_tense/2014/10/plane_carbon_footprint_i_went_a_year_without_flying_to_fight_climate_change.html">decided to stop flying for good</a> in an attempt to reduce our carbon footprint. That’s admittedly an extreme step, and it won’t work for most people, but airlines can do a lot to help business travelers—who make up the bulk of all flights—pay their fair share.</p>
<p>Remember, aviation emissions come almost exclusively from the world’s wealthiest people—they can afford to pay slightly more for cleaner airplanes. A <a href="http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2014/08/11/3469687/study-climate-air-travel-demand/">recent study</a> showed that a $1,000 flight from Chicago to London would need to go up in price only $14 per year to curb demand enough to reduce emissions. Another <a href="http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/14693062.2014.965125">recent analysis</a> said that demand management—reducing the total number of flights—is necessary to keep climate change to a rise of no more than 2 degrees Celsius.</p>
<p>If manufacturers have no regulatory incentive to design and build significantly more efficient aircraft, and if airlines have no regulatory incentive to buy them, the push may have to come from fliers themselves.</p>
<p>Rutherford, who, like many frequent fliers, says his personal emissions <a href="http://www.theicct.org/blogs/staff/carbon-diary-reluctant-traveler">are dominated by the flights he takes</a>, says his organization is looking into ways to help air travelers better account for the climate impact of their flights. “When you buy a ticket on Expedia or Kayak, it gives you tons of information about your flight—the price, the layover time, the on-time performance—but at the moment, no one gives you carbon emissions,” he says. “We’d really like to see that happen.”</p>Thu, 04 Jun 2015 23:15:14 GMThttp://www.slate.com/articles/business/moneybox/2015/06/air_travel_and_climate_regulation_why_the_epa_might_let_big_aviation_off.htmlEric Holthaus2015-06-04T23:15:14ZGlobal aviation is the fastest-growing cause of climate change. And the EPA might let it off the hook.BusinessAir Travel Is the Fastest-Growing Cause of Climate Change. The EPA Might Let It Off the Hook.100150604020aviationglobal warmingEric HolthausMoneyboxhttp://www.slate.com/articles/business/moneybox/2015/06/air_travel_and_climate_regulation_why_the_epa_might_let_big_aviation_off.htmlfalsefalsefalseAir travel is terrible for global warming. And the EPA might let it off the hook.Can airplanes be more climate-friendly?1519028539001AQ~~,AAAAAASoY90~,_gW1ZHvKG_2pKN0AJTySft1Irx-gT62t410283602200124340692670011519028539001AQ~~,AAAAAASoY90~,_gW1ZHvKG_2pKN0AJTySft1Irx-gT62t410283602200124340692670011519028539001AQ~~,AAAAAASoY90~,_gW1ZHvKG_2pKN0AJTySft1Irx-gT62t410283602200124340692670011519028539001AQ~~,AAAAAASoY90~,_gW1ZHvKG_2pKN0AJTySft1Irx-gT62t410283602200124340692670011519028539001AQ~~,AAAAAASoY90~,_gW1ZHvKG_2pKN0AJTySft1Irx-gT62t410283602200124340692670011519028539001AQ~~,AAAAAASoY90~,_gW1ZHvKG_2pKN0AJTySft1Irx-gT62t410283602200124340692670011519028539001AQ~~,AAAAAASoY90~,_gW1ZHvKG_2pKN0AJTySft1Irx-gT62t41028360220012434069267001Photo by Flechas cardinales / ShutterstockWithout government intervention, airlines don’t have much incentive to be friendlier to the environment.Everybody Loves Sir David Attenborough—Even Obamahttp://www.slate.com/blogs/future_tense/2015/06/03/obama_had_a_white_house_meeting_with_david_attenborough_about_nature_and.html
<p>If Barack Obama wants you to fly across the Atlantic to talk about nature for a half-hour, then you do it.</p>
<p>But Obama probably doesn’t want <em>you </em>to do that. He wanted legendary nature documentarian and environmental advocate Sir David Attenborough. According to the <a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/earth/environment/11644711/How-Barack-Obama-requested-White-House-meeting-with-Sir-David-Attenborough.html"><em>Telegraph</em></a>, Attenborough was flown to the White House from his London home last month for a 30-minute meeting with the president. Apparently the president is a big nature buff—though the meeting seems like it was a bit odd. Attenborough revealed the meeting at <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/jun/02/apollo-programme-for-clean-energy-needed-to-tackle-climate-change">a public event</a> in London on Tuesday.</p>
<p>From the <em>Telegraph</em>:</p>
<p>Sir David said his audience with the President took place in the Blue Room of the White House and saw the two men discuss climate change, conservation and Mr Obama’s “feeling for nature”.</p>
<p>Even upon leaving Washington, though, Attenborough admits he was “baffled” as to why Obama called for the meeting in the first place, other than just to chat. “He wanted to make it clear that he was not a philistine in this matter [of the environment]. He is on the side of the natural world and that's what he wanted to be clear,” the documentarian said. Attenborough also got the sense from his meeting that Obama may want to dedicate his post-presidency years to environmental issues.</p>
<p>Perhaps this is Obama’s strange way of responding to <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2015/05/13/opinion/obamas-catastrophic-climate-change-denial.html">ongoing criticism</a> of his administration’s conflicting, half-hearted policies <a href="http://www.slate.com/articles/health_and_science/science/2015/05/protest_against_shell_drilling_in_the_arctic_kayaks_and_boats_near_seattle.html">on the Arctic</a> and on <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2015/04/24/obama_s_latest_moves_on_climate_maybe_his_strategy_is_working.html">climate change in general</a>: “It’s OK: Because, look! I’m friends with David Attenborough!”</p>
<p>Attenborough’s most famous work is his <em><a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Life_Collection">Life series</a></em>, which spanned from 1979 to 2005. He also headlined <em><a href="http://www.amazon.com/dp/B000MRAAJM/?tag=slatmaga-20">Planet Earth</a></em>, the first-ever high definition nature documentary, in 2006. A 2012 BBC America rundown <a href="http://www.bbcamerica.com/anglophenia/2012/04/the-brit-lists-internationally-unsung-national-treasure-1-sir-david-attenborough/">lists</a> Attenborough as Britain’s No. 1 “internationally unsung national treasure,” “a man who deserves to be a household name all over the world.” The site offers a <a href="http://www.bbcamerica.com/anglophenia/2012/04/the-brit-lists-internationally-unsung-national-treasure-1-sir-david-attenborough/">near-perfect description</a> of Sir David:</p>
<p>To British television viewers he is the kind uncle with a passion for the natural world and the infinite patience to show you everything. His serene, whispered tones (very similar to those of his elder brother&nbsp;Richard&nbsp;in&nbsp;<em>Jurassic Park</em>, just a lot less pretend-Scottish) being akin to the greatest teacher you ever had, speaking about their most passionately-loved topic, for as long as you want.&nbsp;</p>
<p>He’s had a dozen or so species named in his honor, <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/environment/gallery/2014/jul/31/species-named-after-sir-david-attenborough-in-pictures">including</a> the <em>Attenborosaurus</em>, a long-necked aquatic dinosaur that lived in Europe 195 million years ago. His signature superlatives have inspired an eponymous <a href="http://geographynqt.blogspot.com/2012/02/sir-david-attenborough-drinking-game.html">drinking game</a>. (The best drinking game … “on the planet.”) <strong><em>Slate</em></strong> science editor Laura Helmuth calls his viral rendition of “(What a) Wonderful World” “pretty much the best music video of ever.”</p>
<p>In his decades of <a href="http://www.warman.demon.co.uk/anna/att_int.html">traveling the world</a> to appear in wildlife documentaries, he’s had his share of (intentionally) close run-ins with animals, often to comedic effect.</p>
<p>In recent years, he’s become <a href="http://www.vox.com/2015/5/13/8587795/david-attenborough-evolution">a vocal advocate</a>&nbsp;for environmental causes, including the global shift to noncarbon forms of energy. Attenborough, who joined the BBC in 1952, is an optimist, <a href="http://www.carbonbrief.org/blog/2015/06/analysis-climate-change-apollo-programme-raises-both-hope-and-questions/">eschewing the “doom and gloom”</a> that environmental campaigns sometimes fall victim to. That attitude fits nicely with bold goals of the Global Apollo Programme, an initiative begun by a group of prominent U.K. scientists and policy experts—the latest in <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/future_tense/2015/04/20/ecomodernism_a_21st_century_environmental_philosophy_that_embraces_a_good.html">a shift</a> away from “people are bad” environmentalism. It calls for countries to spend 0.02 percent of their GDP on research aimed at making carbon-free electricity cheaper than coal within 10 years—a nod to President Kennedy’s ambitious moonshot speech in 1961.</p>
<p>The U.S. budget for research and development into renewable energy has long been criticized by energy experts <a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2013/04/09/three-charts-that-show-the-u-s-spends-too-little-on-energy-research/">as being too low</a>. Obama’s 2016 budget <a href="http://breakingenergy.com/2015/02/19/presidents-budget-would-increase-funding-for-renewable-technologies-but-defund-fossil-energy-research/">proposes a big increase</a>—just not big enough. He’d need at least another $1 billion or so to meet the Global Apollo Programme’s requirement. If he wants to show off his environmental chops, maybe the president should start there.</p>
<p><strong><em>Update, July 1, 2015:</em></strong> Attenborough's meeting with Obama was produced by BBC into a sort of f&ecirc;te for Attenborough's career, with the president doing the interviewing. The full video is now online:</p>
<p>Though it's unclear in the video exactly how Attenborough managed to wind up at the White House on his 89<sup>th</sup> birthday, a BBC producer has confirmed to <strong><em>Slate</em></strong> that the White House did not fund Attenborough's trans-Atlantic flight, and the legendary naturalist &quot;was already in Washington for another event.&quot;</p>Wed, 03 Jun 2015 15:36:21 GMThttp://www.slate.com/blogs/future_tense/2015/06/03/obama_had_a_white_house_meeting_with_david_attenborough_about_nature_and.htmlEric Holthaus2015-06-03T15:36:21ZTechnologyObama Flew Beloved Documentarian David Attenborough to D.C. for a 30-Minute Meeting203150603002barack obamaclimate changeglobal warmingEric HolthausFuture TenseFuture Tensehttp://www.slate.com/blogs/future_tense/2015/06/03/obama_had_a_white_house_meeting_with_david_attenborough_about_nature_and.htmlfalsefalsefalseObama invited the best nature documentarian "on the planet" to a private White House chat:He’s had a dozen or so species named in his honor, including the Attenborosaurus.1519028539001AQ~~,AAAAAASoY90~,_gW1ZHvKG_2pKN0AJTySft1Irx-gT62t427315450100142515333220011519028539001AQ~~,AAAAAASoY90~,_gW1ZHvKG_2pKN0AJTySft1Irx-gT62t427315450100142515333220011519028539001AQ~~,AAAAAASoY90~,_gW1ZHvKG_2pKN0AJTySft1Irx-gT62t427315450100142515333220011519028539001AQ~~,AAAAAASoY90~,_gW1ZHvKG_2pKN0AJTySft1Irx-gT62t427315450100142515333220011519028539001AQ~~,AAAAAASoY90~,_gW1ZHvKG_2pKN0AJTySft1Irx-gT62t427315450100142515333220011519028539001AQ~~,AAAAAASoY90~,_gW1ZHvKG_2pKN0AJTySft1Irx-gT62t427315450100142515333220011519028539001AQ~~,AAAAAASoY90~,_gW1ZHvKG_2pKN0AJTySft1Irx-gT62t427315450100142515333220011519028539001AQ~~,AAAAAASoY90~,_gW1ZHvKG_2pKN0AJTySft1Irx-gT62t427310617300142515333220011519028539001AQ~~,AAAAAASoY90~,_gW1ZHvKG_2pKN0AJTySft1Irx-gT62t427310617300142515333220011519028539001AQ~~,AAAAAASoY90~,_gW1ZHvKG_2pKN0AJTySft1Irx-gT62t427310617300142515333220011519028539001AQ~~,AAAAAASoY90~,_gW1ZHvKG_2pKN0AJTySft1Irx-gT62t42731061730014251533322001Photo by Peter Macdiarmid/Getty ImagesAttenborough sits in the Queen’s Gallery, Buckingham Palace, London, in the Amazing Rare Things exhibition on March 13, 2008.How to Get Rich from El Ni&ntilde;ohttp://www.slate.com/blogs/moneybox/2015/06/02/el_nino_is_here_and_investors_in_agricultural_commodities_stand_to_make.html
<p>El Ni&ntilde;o <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2015/03/05/el_ni_o_it_s_here_and_it_will_boost_global_warming_to_record_highs.html">is here</a>, and this year’s version <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2015/05/14/el_ni_o_2015_largest_ever.html">might be a doozy</a>. Which is why red-blooded investors might be wondering, given the forecast: How can I make some quick cash?</p>
<p>Well, one of the clearest predictable outcomes from El Ni&ntilde;o is a general <a href="http://www.slate.com/articles/technology/future_tense/2014/04/el_nino_2014_2015_what_the_weather_pattern_means_for_60_plus_places.html">rise in weather extremes worldwide</a>, especially in the tropics where most agriculture is still rainfed and El Ni&ntilde;o’s weather-morphing power is strongest. That tends to make for less than ideal growing conditions for the major agricultural commodities grown there, like rice, cocoa, sugar, palm oil, and coffee—leading to a <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p02s6y8j">possible disruption to the global food market</a>. If one chooses to act on this information, farmers’ losses can be investors’ gain. El Ni&ntilde;o’s weather extremes tend to happen in a roughly predictable pattern, which is exactly the kind of heads up someone playing the market might be looking for.</p>
<p>Last week, Jodie Gunzberg, a commodities expert at S&amp;P Dow Jones Indices, did <a href="http://www.indexologyblog.com/2015/05/28/the-hottest-el-nino-yet/">a crude analysis</a> of how well commodities investments perform in the 12 months following the onset of El Ni&ntilde;o conditions. Double-checking her numbers, I found that of the commodities indexes she listed (which includ energy, metals, livestock, and agriculture) only agriculture significantly outperforms the broader S&amp;P 500 stock market index following an El Ni&ntilde;o.</p>
<p>During the year immediately following the past nine El Ni&ntilde;o events, (1983, 1988, 1992, 1995, 1998, 2003, 2005, 2007, and 2010) the S&amp;P 500 gained 16.5 percent on average. During those same calendar years, an investment in the S&amp;P agricultural commodity index gained an average of 24.4 percent—a relative windfall.</p>
<p>Looking a bit deeper, though, there doesn’t appear to be much of a link between the strength of individual El Ni&ntilde;o events and increased return on investment: The three strongest El Ni&ntilde;o episodes on the list above—1983, 1998, and 2010—resulted in the year with the best agricultural index performance (2010) as well as the only two years with a negative return (1983 and 1998). So consider these correlations with caution. &nbsp;Odds are, though, investing in agricultural commodities right now could fatten some bank accounts.</p>
<p>Here’s why. In India, Brazil, and Indonesia—some of the world’s <a href="https://ccafs.cgiar.org/blog/el-ni%C3%B1o-predicted-create-winners-and-losers-global-agriculture-0#.VW3saVzBzGe'">most important agricultural regions</a>—El Ni&ntilde;o usually means drought. The typical <a href="http://phys.org/news/2014-06-el-nio-benefit-agriculture.html">boost in production</a> thanks to generally good growing conditions in the United States usually isn’t enough to offset losses in other parts of the world, so a broad index of food prices tends to spike during El Ni&ntilde;o years. &nbsp;Hence, some investors might buy up agricultural commodities early in the El Ni&ntilde;o cycle.</p>
<p>In India, things are starting to look especially bad. The country’s national weather service <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/06/02/india-monsoon-idUSL3N0YO2VA20150602">downgraded the outlook</a> for this year’s critical monsoon rainfall on Tuesday—the last El Ni&ntilde;o, in 2009-10, resulted in one of the worst monsoon failures on record. Because of its importance to India’s economy, I’ve previously called the monsoon the <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/future_tense/2014/06/03/_2014_india_monsoon_season_the_most_important_forecast_in_the_world.html">most important weather forecast in the world</a>. India has hundreds of millions of farmers, most of which don’t have access to irrigation—and hundreds of millions more who are dependent on stable food prices for their livelihood. Fearing a spike in inflation due to a possible El Ni&ntilde;o-induced drought, India’s central bank lowered interest rates again on Tuesday. The country’s minister for earth sciences, Harsh Vardhan, gave some advice intended to quell fears of a weak economy: &quot;let's pray to God that the revised forecast does not come true.&quot;</p>
<p>The last 12 months have seen Indian <a href="http://www.dnaindia.com/india/report-narendra-modi-government-s-first-year-sees-record-farmer-suicides-2089504">farmer suicides spike to new highs</a>. A <a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/business-32827047">recent report</a> on the tragic trend by <em>BBC News</em> cites a rash of extreme weather as a leading cause. And for some people, that same weather will make them a killing.</p>Tue, 02 Jun 2015 19:39:21 GMThttp://www.slate.com/blogs/moneybox/2015/06/02/el_nino_is_here_and_investors_in_agricultural_commodities_stand_to_make.htmlEric Holthaus2015-06-02T19:39:21ZBusinessHow to Get Rich from El Ni&ntilde;o221150602003el ninocommoditiesindiaEric HolthausMoneyboxMoneyboxhttp://www.slate.com/blogs/moneybox/2015/06/02/el_nino_is_here_and_investors_in_agricultural_commodities_stand_to_make.htmlfalsefalsefalseEl Niño is here, and investors in agricultural commodities stand to make a killing:Nevermind the suffering of millions, there's money to be made!Photo by STR/AFP/GettyImagesForecasts say India may bear the brunt of this year's El Ni&ntilde;o, where it may be the driest monsoon since a major drought in 2009. For global investors, on the other hand, all the calamity could be a boon.Hot Damhttp://www.slate.com/articles/business/moneybox/2015/06/the_future_of_hydroelectricity_it_s_not_good.html
<p>In the rush to <a href="http://grist.org/climate-energy/yes-we-can-beat-climate-change-but-it-will-take-massive-international-government-coordination/">decarbonize</a> the world’s economy, there’s one simple, surprising technology that’s more important than any other: water falling down a hill.</p>
<p>Huge dams fitted with hydroelectric power plants may seem very 20<sup>th</sup> century. Their basic technology—falling water turning a paddle wheel—hasn’t changed much in thousands of years. But hydropower is by far the world’s No. 1 renewable energy resource, and it’s going to stay that way for quite some time, despite growing questions surrounding its reliability.</p>
<p>Over the next 25 years, the <a href="http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/archive/ieo13/table14.cfm">vast majority</a> of the world’s newly installed renewable energy will come via hydroelectric dams, mostly in the developing world, according to a recent U.S. Energy Information Administration outlook. (To be fair, the EIA has <a href="http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2015/04/15/3646658/eia-report-ignores-renewable-potential/">a history of underestimating</a> the growth rate of nonhydro-based sources of renewable energy, like solar and wind.)</p>
<p>Since making electricity by water requires a steady supply, the world’s increasing commitment to hydropower bakes in significant risk should weather patterns continue to become more erratic. <a href="http://foreignpolicy.com/2015/03/16/hydropower-and-the-challenge-of-climate-change/">In general</a>, global warming will result in more intense rainfall events as well as more intense droughts and a loss of mountain glaciers that feed rivers in many parts of the world. For some places like the American West, Latin America, India, and Africa, that erratic energy future is already here. And nearly everywhere, less reliable hydropower could lead to dirtier energy use overall, at least in the short term.</p>
<p>“In a world in which the climate is changing, the value of hydro becomes more uncertain,” says Peter Gleick of the Oakland, California–based Pacific Institute. “We know that one of the worst impacts of climate change will be impacts on water—on droughts, on floods, on demand [via increased evaporation].” You can add energy to that list.</p>
<p>A <a href="http://pacinst.org/publication/impacts-of-californias-ongoing-drought-hydroelectricity-generation/">recent report</a> by Gleick showed that in the first three years of California’s current <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/future_tense/2015/03/20/california_megadrought_it_s_already_begun.html">megadrought</a>, residents of the state have faced an extra $1.4 billion in costs due to the shortfall in hydroelectricity generation and an associated increase in greenhouse gas emissions as natural gas power plants have taken up most of the slack.</p>
<p>That <a href="http://www.latimes.com/local/california/la-me-drought-hydro-20150517-story.html#page=1">drought tends to increase carbon emissions</a> in places like California isn’t immediately obvious. The reason is that, during droughts, natural gas power generation can be spun up quickly when it’s needed, unlike solar and wind. After all, you can’t just create more sunshine, or ask the breeze to pick up, whenever you need it.</p>
<p>“We had a big expansion in California in solar and wind over the last three years, but that would have occurred with or without the drought,” Gleick says. “We take 100 percent of the solar and wind we can generate … when we don’t have hydro, we’re not ramping up extra wind and solar, we’re ramping up extra natural gas.”</p>
<p>Most of the big dams in the American West were built decades ago. Despite <a href="http://sacramento.cbslocal.com/2015/04/27/farmers-press-lawmakers-for-more-water-storage-projects/">repeated calls</a> from farmers and other big water users, it’s likely the era of U.S. dam building is over. If anything, some particularly nasty dams are being removed to match an increased realization that in many cases, <a href="http://www.mercurynews.com/ci_23508105/californias-biggest-dam-removal-project-history-begins-carmel">they’re a net negative on the environment</a>.</p>
<p>Coupled with advances in turbine efficiency and the installation of new generating capacity at existing dams, hydropower generation in the U.S. has held steady over the past decade. Because of the drought and global warming writ large, that’s not a guarantee for the future. An example: At the huge Hoover Dam, where Lake Mead is <a href="http://www.slate.com/articles/health_and_science/science/2015/05/arizona_water_shortages_loom_the_state_prepares_for_rationing_as_lake_mead.html">now at record low levels due to a multiyear drought</a>, <a href="http://www.eenews.net/stories/1060002129">new hydropower turbines are being installed</a> at a lower elevation to prepare for future shortages in the Colorado River—but even that’s just buying time. Still, the U.S. Department of Energy is <a href="http://energy.gov/eere/water/new-vision-united-states-hydropower">currently constructing</a> a broad blueprint to “usher in a new era of growth in sustainable domestic hydropower over the next half century” despite the economic and environmental uncertainties.</p>
<p>The U.S. isn’t alone in its quest for more hydro. The World Bank, which funds large development projects like dam construction in poor countries, acknowledges that hydropower is an increasingly risky bet for energy generation but <a href="http://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2015/04/27/benefits-of-adapting-africas-infrastructure-to-climate-change-outweigh-the-costs">has decided to move ahead anyway</a>. Hydropower is especially appealing to governments right now because of their <a href="http://e360.yale.edu/feature/the_dam_building_boom_right_path_to_clean_energy/2119/">desire to quickly meet low carbon energy generation targets</a>—and foreign governments, mainly China, are happy to build them, often with <a href="http://www.internationalrivers.org/campaigns/china-s-global-role-in-dam-building">relaxed social and environmental standards</a>. That brings fat paychecks for Chinese companies and the chance to earn political favor worldwide. That strategy is part of a “global boom” in hydropower generation expected in the next two decades—<a href="http://www.waterworld.com/articles/2014/10/global-boom-in-hydropower-expected-this-decade.html">an estimated 3,700 major dams</a> are either planned or under construction worldwide right now.</p>
<p>But there’s one controversial project that’s even too risky for the World Bank. The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, once completed in 2017 with the help of Chinese investment, <a href="http://www.scidev.net/global/energy/data-visualisation/africa-hydropower-future-interactive.html#section-5">will be Africa’s largest</a> hydropower generating facility and will triple Ethiopia’s electricity supply, turning Ethiopia into <a href="http://e360.yale.edu/feature/will_huge_new_hydro_projects_bring_power_to_africas_people/2656/">a net power exporter</a>. Ethiopia needs the electricity, but <a href="http://www.ifpri.org/sites/default/files/publications/esspwp53.pdf">independent analysis</a>—and <a href="http://www.internationalrivers.org/resources/hydropower-7901">decades of history</a>—shows that the new dam will only make the quick growing country more vulnerable to future climate shifts. Of the <a href="http://www.internationalrivers.org/files/styles/600-height/public/images/resource/peter_bosshard/hydrodependency-infographic.png?itok=KSzhBJhe">17 countries that derive more than 90 percent</a> of their electricity from hydropower, 14 of them rank <a href="http://www.internationalrivers.org/resources/hydropower-7901">among the poorest in the world</a>.</p>
<p>Take for example Latin America, arguably the region that’s <a href="http://blogs.worldwatch.org/water-energy-nexus-in-latin-america-climate-change-and-hydropower-vulnerability/">currently most dependent on hydroelectricity</a>. In the rapidly melting Andes, hydropower generation is getting more “peaky,” with more meltwater coming in the spring and less in the summer. Brazil’s huge Amazon River basin <a href="http://www.internationalrivers.org/resources/8330">currently supplies about 70 percent of the country’s power</a>, but an <a href="http://www.hydroworld.com/articles/2015/01/brazil-s-drought-brings-water-supply-to-near-zero-capacity-at-hydroelectric-facilities.html">ongoing intense drought</a>—the <a href="http://www.rtcc.org/2015/02/16/brazil-faces-water-rationing-amid-worst-drought-in-84-years/">worst in the country’s history</a>—has resulted in <a href="http://www.economist.com/blogs/americasview/2014/02/blackouts-brazil">rolling blackouts nationwide</a>, with, you guessed it, an <a href="http://www.renewableenergyworld.com/news/2014/12/gas-and-coal-to-replace-hydropower-in-brazil-pollution-to-follow.html">increased reliance on coal and natural gas</a> to fill the short-term gaps. Despite this, the country wants to build <a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/the_americas/brazil-building-more-dams-across-amazon/2013/02/09/f23a63ca-6fba-11e2-b35a-0ee56f0518d2_story.html">more dams</a>.</p>
<p>The U.S. Pacific Northwest looks a lot like Latin America in terms of its energy mix. Washington state, which gets 69 percent of its energy from hydropower—mostly from <a href="https://www.nwcouncil.org/history/GrandCouleeHistory">the huge Grand Coulee Dam</a>—just declared <a href="http://www.latimes.com/nation/la-na-washington-drought-20150515-story.html">a drought emergency</a> and for this reason is likely to have more problems with future energy shortages than California, according to Gleick. Across the West, <a href="http://www.climatecentral.org/news/climate-change-power-grid-at-risk-19005">nearly half of all power plants</a> are expected to see a decrease in electricity generation due to climate swings in the future.</p>
<p>“For any energy system, you want a diversity of sources. If you’re completely dependent on one thing, and that’s vulnerable to a technological failure or the vagaries of Mother Nature, you’re more vulnerable,” Gleick says. “We need to design our energy systems to be resilient in the face of growing uncertainty about technology and climate and national security and all of the factors that affect energy.”</p>
<p>Even countries that aren’t as reliant on hydropower are still vulnerable to climate swings. India gets only about 20 percent of its electricity from dams, but a 2012 blackout there—<a href="http://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2012/07/india-in-the-dark-photos-of-the-largest-blackout-in-history/260537/">the worst blackout in world history</a>—cut power to an estimated 670 million people, nearly as many people as live in the United States and Western Europe combined. <a href="http://www.wri.org/blog/2012/08/4-ways-water-connected-indias-blackouts">It was blamed</a>, in part, on low rainfall during a poor monsoon season and a lack of water to conventional coal and nuclear power plants, which rely on a continuous supply of water to boil in order to turn their steam turbines.</p>
<p>To California’s credit, amid the <a href="http://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/240140-calif-drought-cuts-hydropower-output">ongoing drought</a> the state has <a href="http://www.energy.ca.gov/drought/drought_FAQs.html">been able to diversify its energy mix</a> away from hydro. The rest of the country is slowly starting to do the same thing. For the U.S. as a whole, <a href="http://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.cfm?id=17351">2014 was the first year</a> in history in which nonhydro renewable energy outproduced energy coming from dams.</p>
<p>Still, even though the U.S. government expects more electricity from dams in the future, Gleick isn’t sure where it’s going to come from. “We’ve built on all the good dam sites in the U.S., and some not-so-good dam sites,” Gleick says. “The economic, and environmental, and political liabilities of hydropower are going to limit any substantial new development … we’re scraping the bottom of the barrel now.”</p>Mon, 01 Jun 2015 22:00:18 GMThttp://www.slate.com/articles/business/moneybox/2015/06/the_future_of_hydroelectricity_it_s_not_good.htmlEric Holthaus2015-06-01T22:00:18ZHydroelectricity is getting less reliable due to global warming. And the world is doubling down on it.BusinessGlobal Warming Is Drying Up Dams. So Why Is the World Doubling Down on Hydropower?100150601018renewable energyglobal warmingclimate changeEric HolthausMoneyboxhttp://www.slate.com/articles/business/moneybox/2015/06/the_future_of_hydroelectricity_it_s_not_good.htmlfalsefalsefalseGlobal warming is drying up dams. So why is the world going gaga for hydroelectricity?The shaky future of hydroelectric power should worry you a lot.1519028539001AQ~~,AAAAAASoY90~,_gW1ZHvKG_2pKN0AJTySft1Irx-gT62t274359787500138083509090011519028539001AQ~~,AAAAAASoY90~,_gW1ZHvKG_2pKN0AJTySft1Irx-gT62t274359787500138083509090011519028539001AQ~~,AAAAAASoY90~,_gW1ZHvKG_2pKN0AJTySft1Irx-gT62t274359787500138083509090011519028539001AQ~~,AAAAAASoY90~,_gW1ZHvKG_2pKN0AJTySft1Irx-gT62t274359787500138083509090011519028539001AQ~~,AAAAAASoY90~,_gW1ZHvKG_2pKN0AJTySft1Irx-gT62t274359787500138083509090011519028539001AQ~~,AAAAAASoY90~,_gW1ZHvKG_2pKN0AJTySft1Irx-gT62t274359787500138083509090011519028539001AQ~~,AAAAAASoY90~,_gW1ZHvKG_2pKN0AJTySft1Irx-gT62t274359787500138083509090011519028539001AQ~~,AAAAAASoY90~,_gW1ZHvKG_2pKN0AJTySft1Irx-gT62t27435978750013808350909001Photo by Andrew Zarivny/ShutterstockAt the Hoover Dam, new hydropower turbines are being installed at a lower elevation to prepare for future shortages in the Colorado River—but even that’s just buying time.California’s Snowpack Is Now Zero Percent of Normalhttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2015/05/29/california_s_snowpack_now_zero_percent_of_normal_a_worst_case_scenario_for.html
<p>California’s current <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/future_tense/2015/03/20/california_megadrought_it_s_already_begun.html">megadrought</a> hit a shocking new low this week: On Thursday, the state’s snowpack officially ran out.</p>
<p>At least some measurable snowpack in the Sierra mountains usually lasts all summer. But this year, its early demise means that runoff from the mountains—which usually makes up <a href="http://www.slate.com/articles/technology/future_tense/2014/04/thirsty_west_california_s_meager_snowpack_will_exacerbate_a_dangerous_drought.html">the bulk of surface water</a> for farms and cities during the long summer dry season—will be essentially non-existent. To be clear: <a href="https://earthdata.nasa.gov/labs/worldview/?p=geographic&amp;l=MODIS_Aqua_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor(hidden),MODIS_Terra_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor,Reference_Labels(hidden),Reference_Features(hidden),Coastlines&amp;t=2015-05-27&amp;v=-144.964599609375,26.017822265625,-94.339599609375,53.369384765625">there’s</a> still <a href="https://twitter.com/ACwithFT/status/604339211462828033">a bit</a> of snow <a href="https://twitter.com/patkeelin/status/604341212774989825">left</a>, and some water will be released from reservoirs (which are themselves <a href="http://cdec.water.ca.gov/cdecapp/resapp/getResGraphsMain.action">dangerously low</a>), but this is essentially a worst-case scenario when it comes to California’s fragile water supply.</p>
<p>The state knew this was coming and has been working to help soften the blow—but they’re fighting a losing battle. Bottom line: 2014 was the state’s hottest year in history, and 2015 is <a href="http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/temp-and-precip/climatological-rankings/index.php?periods%5B%5D=1&amp;periods%5B%5D=2&amp;periods%5B%5D=3&amp;periods%5B%5D=4&amp;periods%5B%5D=5&amp;periods%5B%5D=6&amp;periods%5B%5D=7&amp;periods%5B%5D=8&amp;periods%5B%5D=9&amp;periods%5B%5D=10&amp;periods%5B%5D=11&amp;periods%5B%5D=12&amp;periods%5B%5D=18&amp;periods%5B%5D=24&amp;periods%5B%5D=36&amp;periods%5B%5D=48&amp;periods%5B%5D=60&amp;periods%5B%5D=ytd&amp;parameter=tavg&amp;state=4&amp;div=0&amp;month=4&amp;year=2015#ranks-form">on pace</a> to break that record. It’s been too warm for snow. Back in April, Gov. Jerry Brown <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2015/04/03/california_drought_the_state_s_snowpack_is_a_new_record_low_by_far.html">enacted the state’s first-ever mandatory water restrictions</a> for urban areas based mostly on <a href="http://www.latimes.com/local/lanow/la-me-ln-snowpack-count-canceled-drought-20150430-story.html">the abysmal snowpack</a>. In recent days, the state’s conservation efforts have <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2015/05/21/california_drought_water_restrictions_are_coming_for_farmers_with_century.html">turned to farmers</a>—who use about 80 percent of California’s water.</p>
<p>With a burgeoning El Ni&ntilde;o on the way, there’s reason to believe <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2015/05/14/el_ni_o_2015_largest_ever.html">the rains could return soon</a>—but not before October or November. The state’s now mired in <a href="http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/temp-and-precip/drought/recovery/current/prob-end/6">such a deep water deficit</a> that even a <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2015/05/26/houston_texas_flooding_how_el_nino_and_climate_change_contributed_to_the.html">Texas-sized flood</a> may not totally eliminate the drought.</p>
<p>Welcome to <a href="http://www.slate.com/articles/technology/future_tense/2014/10/california_central_valley_agriculture_drought_and_climate_change_photos.html">climate change</a>, everyone.</p>Fri, 29 May 2015 18:56:00 GMThttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2015/05/29/california_s_snowpack_now_zero_percent_of_normal_a_worst_case_scenario_for.htmlEric Holthaus2015-05-29T18:56:00ZbriefingThe Worst Case Scenario Has Come True: California’s Snowpack Is Now Zero Percent of Normal227150529005californiacalifornia droughtthirsty westclimate changeglobal warmingEric HolthausThe SlatestThe Slatesthttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2015/05/29/california_s_snowpack_now_zero_percent_of_normal_a_worst_case_scenario_for.htmlfalsefalsefalseEeep! California's snowpack now at zero percent of normal, with dire implications:Welcome to climate change, everyone.1519028539001AQ~~,AAAAAASoY90~,_gW1ZHvKG_2pKN0AJTySft1Irx-gT62t274359787500138083509090011519028539001AQ~~,AAAAAASoY90~,_gW1ZHvKG_2pKN0AJTySft1Irx-gT62t274359787500138083509090011519028539001AQ~~,AAAAAASoY90~,_gW1ZHvKG_2pKN0AJTySft1Irx-gT62t274359787500138083509090011519028539001AQ~~,AAAAAASoY90~,_gW1ZHvKG_2pKN0AJTySft1Irx-gT62t274359787500138083509090011519028539001AQ~~,AAAAAASoY90~,_gW1ZHvKG_2pKN0AJTySft1Irx-gT62t274359787500138083509090011519028539001AQ~~,AAAAAASoY90~,_gW1ZHvKG_2pKN0AJTySft1Irx-gT62t274359787500138083509090011519028539001AQ~~,AAAAAASoY90~,_gW1ZHvKG_2pKN0AJTySft1Irx-gT62t274359787500138083509090011519028539001AQ~~,AAAAAASoY90~,_gW1ZHvKG_2pKN0AJTySft1Irx-gT62t27435978750013808350909001Photo by Max Whittaker/Getty ImagesA stump sits at the site of a manual snow survey on April 1, 2015 in Phillips, California. The current recorded level is zero, the lowest in recorded history for California.India’s Deadly Heat Wavehttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2015/05/27/india_s_heat_wave_more_than_1000_people_have_died_in_record_high_temperatures.html
<p>One of the worst heat waves in recent history is underway in India, with BBC News <a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-32880180">reporting</a> that more than 1,000 people have died in less than a week. The <em>Hindustan Times</em> <a href="http://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/heat-wave-claims-over-750-lives-in-ap-telangana-temperatures-will-continue-to-soar-this-week/article1-1351358.aspx">reports</a> that most of the victims are construction workers, the elderly, or the homeless. <a href="http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2015/05/india-heatwave-kills-800-capital-roads-melt-150527005721511.html">Local governments are calling</a> for drinking water camps and public education campaigns with heat safety tips—measures that aren’t likely to help much. In India, most people dying from the heat are likely too poor to afford to take a break from work to cool down.</p>
<p>In the hardest-hit areas, temperatures have been up to 10 degrees Fahrenheit above normal for several days during what is usually the hottest time of the year. In New Delhi, temperatures were so hot—reaching 113 degrees Fahrenheit—<a href="http://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/heat-wave-claims-over-750-lives-in-ap-telangana-temperatures-will-continue-to-soar-this-week/article1-1351358.aspx">they melted the roads</a>. In Hyderabad, <a href="http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/VOHY/2015/5/27/MonthlyCalendar.html?req_city=Hyderabad&amp;req_statename=India&amp;reqdb.zip=00000&amp;reqdb.magic=1&amp;reqdb.wmo=43128&amp;MR=1">26 of 31 days this month</a> have been or are forecasted to be hotter than normal. According to India’s Meteorological Department, the temperature hit a stunning 117 degrees Fahrenheit on Tuesday at Titlagarh in Odisha—the hottest temperature nationwide, and just 5 degrees below <a href="http://www.mherrera.org/temp.htm">the country’s all-time record</a>.</p>
<p>But at least these places had a “dry heat,” and overnight temperatures have been falling into the 80s. Along the coast, temperatures were slightly lower, but <a href="https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/603421710386204673">much higher humidity levels</a> created a punishing heat index that persisted throughout the night. In Mumbai, for example, the heat index <a href="http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/VABB/2015/5/27/DailyHistory.html?req_city=Mumbai&amp;req_state=&amp;req_statename=India&amp;reqdb.zip=00000&amp;reqdb.magic=1&amp;reqdb.wmo=43003">bottomed out</a> just below 100 degrees Fahrenheit, and only for a few hours overnight Wednesday. In severe heat waves, oppressively hot overnight temperatures <a href="http://grist.org/list/2011-07-21-nyc-mayor-bloomberg-gives-50-million-to-fight-coal-michael-bloom/">are extremely deadly</a>, because there’s just no chance for overheated bodies to cool off.</p>
<p>That means the “misery index”—<a href="http://www.wired.com/2014/07/this-map-shows-you-how-miserable-the-weather-is-around-the-world/">a creation</a> of Web developer Cameron Beccario that factors in both heat and humidity—is off the charts nearly nationwide.</p>
<p><em>Map credit: Cameron Beccario/<a href="http://earth.nullschool.net/#2015/05/26/0900Z/wind/surface/level/overlay=misery_index/orthographic=-280.46,19.76,1024">earth.nullschool.net</a></em></p>
<p>Next to parts of the Amazon River basin, coastal India typically experiences <a href="http://web.science.unsw.edu.au/~stevensherwood/wetbulb.html">the highest heat indexes</a> of anywhere on the planet. And global warming is making it worse. A <a href="http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/v3/n6/full/nclimate1827.html?WT.ec_id=NCLIMATE-201306">recent study</a> in <em>Nature Climate Change </em>showed that increasing heat stress is already limiting India’s labor capacity—the ability for humans to do work outdoors—with side effects including fainting, disorientation, and seizures. According to <a href="http://ehp.niehs.nih.gov/isee/p-3-12-19/">a separate study</a>, heat stress <a href="http://earlywarn.blogspot.com/2010/05/heat-stress-in-india.html">will be increasingly deadly</a> in the years to come. With <a href="http://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/how-many-farmers-does-india-really-have/article1-1250762.aspx">more than 250 million farmers</a>, nearly as many as the entire population of the United States, this is a recipe for disaster.</p>
<p>The combination of exceptional heat stress and a still largely rural economy makes India <a href="http://scroll.in/article/729708/heat-waves-in-india-are-more-deadly-than-you-think-%E2%80%92-and-they-are-likely-to-get-deadlier">uniquely vulnerable</a> to heat waves. Last year Prime Minister Narendra Modi made <a href="http://zeenews.india.com/news/india/modi-govt-has-developed-additional-22500-mw-of-power-goyal_1589404.html">universal electricity access by 2019</a> a key part of his election platform. (Currently a quarter of the country’s 1.25 billion people don’t have electricity.) Air conditioning use in India is growing at <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/future_tense/2014/06/11/india_s_heat_wave_is_unbearable_extreme_temperatures_in_new_delhi_mumbai.html">a whopping 20 percent per year</a>, putting a huge strain on the country’s still fragile power grid and <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2015/04/24/obama_s_latest_moves_on_climate_maybe_his_strategy_is_working.html">boosting its greenhouse gas emissions</a>. Electrifying India is a major challenge, and arguably the single most important use of a <a href="http://qz.com/140576/how-to-fix-global-warming-before-its-too-late/">dwindling global carbon budget</a>. Beyond India, skyrocketing air conditioning demand in poor countries <a href="http://www.theverge.com/2015/4/27/8504463/air-conditioner-adoption-study-energy-consumption-increases">poses tough ethical questions</a>—it’s hard to justify growing greenhouse gas emissions in relatively wealthy parts of the planet when people are literally dying of heat in the tropics.</p>
<p>Conditions like this—horrible heat, and the vast majority of people without access to air conditioning—will continue until the monsoon season arrives in early June. The Indian monsoon is, in my opinion, the <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/future_tense/2014/06/03/_2014_india_monsoon_season_the_most_important_forecast_in_the_world.html">most important weather forecast in the world</a>, and <a href="http://www.imd.gov.in/section/nhac/dynamic/eng_lrf1.pdf">the outlook</a> for this year’s rains isn’t great. With so many farmers dependent on the rains&shy;—which produce 70 percent of the year’s total rainfall in just four months—the monsoon is <a href="http://www.india-briefing.com/news/monsoon-season-indias-real-finance-minister-10714.html/">sometimes called</a> “India’s real finance minister.” Though the rains are <a href="http://in.reuters.com/article/2015/05/18/markets-india-sensex-nifty-shares-idINKBN0O30GA20150518">expected to arrive on time</a> this year, the seasonal total could disappoint for <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/future_tense/2014/07/09/india_monsoon_failure_rainfall_is_far_below_normal_in_2014.html">reasons similar to last year’s failure</a>: A growing El Ni&ntilde;o and an unfavorable distribution of heat in the Indian Ocean could stifle thunderstorms. Should the monsoon’s northward progression stall out like last year’s, India could have several more weeks of scorching heat to come.</p>Wed, 27 May 2015 18:12:00 GMThttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2015/05/27/india_s_heat_wave_more_than_1000_people_have_died_in_record_high_temperatures.htmlEric Holthaus2015-05-27T18:12:00ZbriefingWhy India’s Heat Wave Is So Deadly227150527004indiamonsoonglobal warmingclimate changeheat waveEric HolthausThe SlatestThe Slatesthttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2015/05/27/india_s_heat_wave_more_than_1000_people_have_died_in_record_high_temperatures.htmlfalsefalsefalseIndia's heat wave is unbearable, and climate change is making it worse:Temperatures are so hot in New Delhi, the roads are melting.1519028539001AQ~~,AAAAAASoY90~,_gW1ZHvKG_2pKN0AJTySft1Irx-gT62t417264768600140961128260011519028539001AQ~~,AAAAAASoY90~,_gW1ZHvKG_2pKN0AJTySft1Irx-gT62t417264768600140961128260011519028539001AQ~~,AAAAAASoY90~,_gW1ZHvKG_2pKN0AJTySft1Irx-gT62t417264768600140961128260011519028539001AQ~~,AAAAAASoY90~,_gW1ZHvKG_2pKN0AJTySft1Irx-gT62t417264768600140961128260011519028539001AQ~~,AAAAAASoY90~,_gW1ZHvKG_2pKN0AJTySft1Irx-gT62t417264768600140961128260011519028539001AQ~~,AAAAAASoY90~,_gW1ZHvKG_2pKN0AJTySft1Irx-gT62t417264768600140961128260011519028539001AQ~~,AAAAAASoY90~,_gW1ZHvKG_2pKN0AJTySft1Irx-gT62t417264768600140961128260011519028539001AQ~~,AAAAAASoY90~,_gW1ZHvKG_2pKN0AJTySft1Irx-gT62t41726476860014096112826001Photo by Sanjay Kanojia/AFP/Getty ImagesIndian girls walk home during a hot summer day in Allahabad on May 22, 2015. Nationwide, more than 1,000 people have died during the current heat wave.Texas Was In a Horrible Drought Last Year. Now It’s Flooded. What Gives?http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2015/05/26/houston_texas_flooding_how_el_nino_and_climate_change_contributed_to_the.html
<p>A torrential, hurricane-like series of rainstorms hit Texas over the weekend, <a href="http://www.khou.com/story/weather/2015/05/26/hundreds-stranded--flooding-overwhelms-houston-roadways/27946569/">stranding hundreds</a>, and producing a flood that Texas Gov. Greg Abbott <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2015/may/26/texas-storms-aftermath-flooding-power-outages">said</a> hit with “tsunami-type power.” <a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/catastrophic-flooding-hits-texas-and-oklahoma/2015/05/25/0f86027e-02fb-11e5-a428-c984eb077d4e_story.html">According to</a> the <em>Washington Post</em>, at least five people have died and a dozen are missing—with the impact of the overnight rains in Houston <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2015/may/26/texas-storms-aftermath-flooding-power-outages">still uncertain</a>. Abbott has declared a state of emergency and called 37 counties disaster areas.</p>
<p>The National Weather Service in Houston <a href="https://twitter.com/StuOstro/status/603050356784902144">called the storm</a> a ‘flash flood emergency’—a rare warning. The rains made for <a href="https://twitter.com/AccuWxBeck/status/603156880056266753">commuting chaos</a> on Tuesday morning with freeways underwater and countless cars washed away:</p>
<p><a href="https://twitter.com/wxkev/status/603033939519868928">During the rain’s peak</a> Monday night, Houston received nearly an inch of rainfall <em>in just five minutes</em>, and racked up <a href="https://twitter.com/weatherchannel/status/603177376852418560">nearly a foot</a> in less than a day. The flooding in Houston was comparable to a landfalling tropical storm or hurricane. Water levels along Buffalo Bayou, which runs through downtown, <a href="https://twitter.com/wxjerdman/status/603138548578004992">eclipsed the level seen during Hurricane Ike</a> in 2008, and was just shy of flooding during Tropical Storm Allison—the worst flood in Houston history—which dawdled over the city for six days in 2001 and inundated 70,000 houses.</p>
<p>And it’s <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2015/05/25/twister_kills_10_in_mexico_border_city_as_flooding_wreaks_havoc_on_texas.html">not just Houston</a>. <a href="https://twitter.com/HellerWeather/status/602120466661126144">At one point</a> on Saturday, an astonishing 95 percent of Texas was under a flash flood watch as a <a href="https://twitter.com/EricHolthaus/status/602361637933166592">huge swath of heavy rain</a> slowly advanced eastward. One heartbreaking and widely circulated story <a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/morning-mix/wp/2015/05/26/frantic-phone-call-as-family-friends-are-swept-away-by-violent-texas-floodwaters/">recounted a frantic phone call</a> from a mother in Wimberly, Texas, who told her sister “we are floating in a house that is now floating down the river.” The family is still listed among the missing. Water levels in Wimberly <a href="https://twitter.com/NWSSanAntonio/status/602480793118744576">rose nearly 40 feet in a matter of hours</a>, one of the <a href="https://twitter.com/bhensonweather/status/602350216176472064">worst flash floods</a> in many meteorologists’ memories.</p>
<p>Weeks of wet weather across the southern plains only made the Texas floods worse. May 2015 has been the <a href="https://twitter.com/WeatherNation/status/602267013235412992">rainiest month</a> in Oklahoma City’s history—same goes for <a href="https://twitter.com/pauliniguez/status/602321529674854400">several other nearby places</a>, including Fort Smith, Arkansas, and Wichita Falls, Texas. That’s helped <a href="http://www.chron.com/news/houston-texas/houston/article/Texas-drought-fades-with-heavy-rains-6271730.php">all but eliminate</a> one of the worst droughts on record, which peaked in 2011 and resurged again last year.</p>
<p>Over the longer term, this kind of weather isn’t totally unexpected—extreme swings in precipitation are becoming the new normal. This month’s heavy rains are <a href="https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/602441875711098880">directly linked</a> to <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2015/03/05/el_ni_o_it_s_here_and_it_will_boost_global_warming_to_record_highs.html">a building El Ni&ntilde;o</a> in the tropical Pacific Ocean, which is <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2015/05/14/el_ni_o_2015_largest_ever.html">forecast to strengthen</a> throughout the summer, meaning <a href="https://twitter.com/EricHolthaus/status/603230912617127936">heavy rains could return to the southern plains</a> at regular intervals.</p>
<p>A <a href="http://www.southernclimate.org/documents/climatechange_texas.pdf">steadily escalating whipsaw</a> between drought and flood is <a href="https://twitter.com/DustyBowl/status/602125655539605504">one of the most confident predictions</a> of an atmosphere with enhanced evaporation rates—meaning, global warming. Since 1958, there’s been <a href="http://www.climatecentral.org/gallery/maps/extreme-precipitation-events-are-on-the-rise">a 16 percent increase</a> in the amount of rain falling in the heaviest rainstorms on the Plains, even as long-term projections point toward an <a href="http://www.slate.com/articles/technology/future_tense/2015/02/study_climate_change_may_bring_about_megadroughts_this_century.html">increased risk of megadrought</a>. Both of these can happen at the same time.</p>
<p>Texas’s quick transition from drought hellscape to underwater theme park was egged on by both El Ni&ntilde;o and climate change. A quick check of <a href="https://twitter.com/EricHolthaus/status/603230912617127936">the latest seasonal forecast</a> shows there’s a lot more rain to come this summer.</p>Tue, 26 May 2015 19:21:00 GMThttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2015/05/26/houston_texas_flooding_how_el_nino_and_climate_change_contributed_to_the.htmlEric Holthaus2015-05-26T19:21:00ZbriefingHouston Got an Inch of Rain in
<em>Just Five Minutes</em> Last Night. What Is Going on in Texas?227150526004extreme weathertexasel ninoglobal warmingclimate changeweatherEric HolthausThe SlatestThe Slatesthttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2015/05/26/houston_texas_flooding_how_el_nino_and_climate_change_contributed_to_the.htmlfalsefalsefalseHouston got 1 inch of rain in just 5 min Monday. With El Niño & climate change, expect more crazy weather:Texas’ quick transition from drought hellscape to underwater theme park was egged on by both El Niño and climate change.1519028539001AQ~~,AAAAAASoY90~,_gW1ZHvKG_2pKN0AJTySft1Irx-gT62t417264768600140961128260011519028539001AQ~~,AAAAAASoY90~,_gW1ZHvKG_2pKN0AJTySft1Irx-gT62t417264768600140961128260011519028539001AQ~~,AAAAAASoY90~,_gW1ZHvKG_2pKN0AJTySft1Irx-gT62t417264768600140961128260011519028539001AQ~~,AAAAAASoY90~,_gW1ZHvKG_2pKN0AJTySft1Irx-gT62t417264768600140961128260011519028539001AQ~~,AAAAAASoY90~,_gW1ZHvKG_2pKN0AJTySft1Irx-gT62t417264768600140961128260011519028539001AQ~~,AAAAAASoY90~,_gW1ZHvKG_2pKN0AJTySft1Irx-gT62t417264768600140961128260011519028539001AQ~~,AAAAAASoY90~,_gW1ZHvKG_2pKN0AJTySft1Irx-gT62t417264768600140961128260011519028539001AQ~~,AAAAAASoY90~,_gW1ZHvKG_2pKN0AJTySft1Irx-gT62t41726476860014096112826001Photo by Aaron M. Sprecher/AFP/Getty ImagesVehicles are left stranded on Texas State Highway 288 in Houston, Texas on May 26, 2015.Honeybees at a Crossroadshttp://www.slate.com/articles/technology/future_tense/2015/05/honeybee_deaths_drought_pesticides_disease_are_all_hurting_bees.html
<p>We’ve all heard the story by now. Bees are dying, and a tangled mix of toxic pesticides, monocrop agriculture, and climate change are probably to blame. After the coming Beepocalypse, we’ll have to <a href="http://www.wired.com/2014/05/will-we-still-have-fruit-if-bees-die-off/">pollinate our food crops by hand</a>, or so the thinking goes.</p>
<p>The story is much more complex than that. Still, it seems like bees need all the help they can get, so last year I decided to give beekeeping a try myself. In my first year, I got stung only twice. I consider that a great accomplishment.</p>
<p>I had a lot of fun showing off my bees whenever we had visitors. I’d put on my rain jacket, a pair of old batting gloves, and a makeshift veil—a getup that substituted for a proper bee suit—light my smoker, and wave trays of fastidious insects in my guests’ faces. “See, those tiny, ricelike specks at the bottom of the cell are the eggs. Hey, there’s the queen!” Predictably, they recoiled in fear—but even at a safe distance, their eyes never left the bees. Bees are fascinating.</p>
<p>We started with just one hive in our backyard last spring, seeded by a 3-pound “package” of bees that our supplier told us was sourced from Texas. Our bees seemed healthy enough last fall. They made about 40 pounds of honey, though that wasn’t enough extra for us to harvest any for ourselves. It was a cool, wet summer, and other beekeepers in this part of Wisconsin reported similar problems. I did sneak a taste of some honey when I accidentally scraped open a few cells as I was preparing the hive for winter—it was delicious.</p>
<p>Through the long, hard Wisconsin winter, I occasionally shoved the mound of snow higher around the hive, as instructed by a local mentor, to help with insulation. Last month, as temperatures rose, I finally got up the nerve to check in on them. They were all dead.</p>
<p>I’m not alone. It’s an extraordinarily <a href="http://www.wsj.com/articles/more-beekeepers-sour-on-profession-as-winter-die-offs-continue-1422057396">difficult time</a> to be a beekeeper. Last week the <em>New York Times</em> and others <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2015/05/14/us/honeybees-mysterious-die-off-appears-to-worsen.html?referrer=&amp;_r=2">reported</a> that colony die-offs spiked again during the just-completed season, with 42.1 percent losses nationwide. That makes it among the worst years on record. Commercial beekeepers, the <a href="http://www.scientificamerican.com/article/migratory-beekeeping-mind-boggling-math/">migratory insect wranglers</a> whose flocks are essential to pollinating some of the nation’s most valuable crops, were hit especially hard.</p>
<p>One reason is <a href="http://www.slate.com/topics/t/thirsty_west.html">the drought</a>. Due to abnormally warm temperatures, the almond bloom came early this year in California, <a href="http://www.nass.usda.gov/Statistics_by_State/California/Publications/Other_Files/201505crppd.pdf">two weeks ahead of schedule</a>, and the Oregon pear bloom was <a href="http://www.statesmanjournal.com/story/tech/science/environment/2015/03/13/early-bloom-in-rogue-valley-too-early-for-many-bees/70282272/">perhaps the earliest on record</a>, adding stress to bees that were transported between the two with little break. There is also a shortage of nectar in the blossoms of native plants, which is <a href="http://blogs.kqed.org/science/audio/california-drought-dries-up-honey-supply/">cutting into honey production</a> and forcing beekeepers to feed their bees with sugar water. That’s driven honey prices to <a href="http://www.honey.com/honey-industry/honey-industry-statistics/unit-honey-prices-by-month-wholesale/">all-time highs</a> nationwide and prompted a <a href="http://www.fresnobee.com/news/business/agriculture/article19537314.html">fourfold increase</a> in the price almond growers are paying to rent beehives during pollination.</p>
<p>There’s no way to separate the plight of the honeybee from California’s nut boom. California almond growers need two things to thrive: water and honeybees. This year both are in short supply.</p>
<p>I first wrote about almonds’ huge water footprint <a href="http://www.slate.com/articles/technology/future_tense/2014/05/_10_percent_of_california_s_water_goes_to_almond_farming.single.html">last year</a>. This year, in consultation with the Almond Board of California, <a href="http://www.slate.com/articles/business/moneybox/2015/04/almonds_in_california_they_use_up_a_lot_of_water_but_they_deserve_a_place.html">I refined my numbers</a>. Though California’s vast almond plantations use <a href="http://www.motherjones.com/environment/2015/01/almonds-nuts-crazy-stats-charts">a couple of Los Angeleses’ worth of water each year</a>, they’re not the worst agricultural water guzzler in the state. (That title <a href="http://gizmodo.com/seriously-stop-demonizing-almonds-1696065939?utm_campaign=socialflow_gizmodo_twitter&amp;utm_source=gizmodo_twitter&amp;utm_medium=socialflow">goes to alfalfa</a> grown as animal feed for export and for California dairies.)</p>
<p>The annual California almond pollination is a <a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-21741651">staggering spectacle</a>. It’s now the single biggest pollination event on earth: Thirty billion bees, essentially the entire nation’s commercial supply, are trucked in during a narrow two-to-three-week window. And it doesn’t stop there. After wintering in Florida or Texas, the <a href="https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/migratory-beekeeping-mind-boggling-math/">average commercial beekeeper</a> takes hives to California in February, northward to Oregon and Washington for pears and apples in March, then to the cranberry bogs of Wisconsin or the clover fields of North Dakota during the summer months, before heading back south when the weather turns cold. All that mingling has helped hasten the spread of diseases and parasites, like varroa mites.</p>
<p>But the dire headlines frequently leave out important trends: The total population of honeybees in the U.S. has <a href="http://scientificbeekeeping.com/sick-bees-part-18f8-colony-collapse-revisited-beekeeping-economics">leveled off</a>, as beekeepers, for now, have been able to recover from sharp seasonal losses whenever they’ve occurred. Globally, populations are <a href="http://www.safechemicalpolicy.org/the-number-of-honeybee-hives-have-increased-globally/">actually rising</a>. Honeybees are not going to go extinct anytime soon.</p>
<p>But in an era of industrialized monoculture, farmers have increasingly turned to pesticides to squeeze out extra yields. Research is becoming clearer that this decision has come at a staggering cost to honeybees. And almond growers, due to their unique dependence on bees, may be <a href="http://www.motherjones.com/tom-philpott/2014/04/california-almond-farms-blamed-honeybee-die">at least partially to blame</a>—though <a href="http://www.sacbee.com/opinion/editorials/article15396410.html">not intentionally</a>, of course. To beekeepers, the most worrying insecticides are those in the neonicotinoid family, a chemical relative of nicotine. Neonicotinoids are a neurotoxin to bees, and <a href="http://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2015-04/foas-pab043015.php">research</a> published recently shows that they may interfere with bees’ ability to reproduce adequately. One beekeeper I spoke with said that if traditional pesticides are firecrackers, neonicotinoids are nuclear weapons.</p>
<p>This week the White House announced an initiative to protect pollinator health, with a goal of limiting winter honeybee losses to no more than 15 percent each year within 10 years—a much easier blow to build back from. The initiative includes a plan for the Environmental Protection Agency to “re-evaluate the neonicotinoid family of pesticides” by 2017. The EPA has <a href="http://www.epa.gov/oppfead1/cb/csb_page/updates/2015/neonic-outdooruse.html">previously said</a> it is unlikely to approve new outdoor uses for neonicotinoids. The family of pesticides has been banned in Europe <a href="http://ec.europa.eu/food/archive/animal/liveanimals/bees/neonicotinoids_en.htm">since 2013</a>.</p>
<p>In the meantime, to say the use of neonicotinoids is widespread would be <a href="http://www.motherjones.com/tom-philpott/2014/05/smoking-gun-bee-collapse">a vast understatement</a>. When I contacted almond industry representatives for this article, they pointed me toward an <a href="http://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/almond-board-of-california-announces-comprehensive-best-management-practices-to-promote-bee-health-279428542.html">initiative</a> in place this season to promote best management practices on pesticide application, including guidelines to limit the use of pesticides during the bloom period when bees are most active. But Randall Langston, a commercial beekeeper from Florida who brings his bees to California each year, hadn’t yet heard of the initiative from the Almond Board. And he brings a <em>lot</em> of bees there—eight or nine truckloads this year:</p>
<p>This year he wasn’t happy with the health of his bees when they returned from California. “The drought has definitely played a huge role,” he told me. But his No. 1 concern is still pesticides.</p>
<p>“Every time we expose our bees to any kind of pollination program, [we’re] always putting [our] bees in the line of fire to be sprayed with who knows what,” Langston said.</p>
<p>Despite the risk of continued losses, Langston said he’d continue to send his bees to California until the risk outweighed the profit. If, some year, his bees are so weak that they aren’t able to produce honey once they get home, “then it’s over. … I’m not sending them out there on a death run.”</p>
<p>As the economics of the industry has changed—the short almond pollination period now often fetches half of a commercial beekeeper’s annual income—Langston has changed his beekeeping philosophy from producing honey to just recouping losses and rebuilding his hive population each summer. But that trend can’t continue forever, he said. “I think everybody in general, as beekeepers, are starting to really weigh their thoughts on whether or not they’re going to continue to go to California.”</p>
<p>As for me, I’m planning on restarting my micro-scale beekeeping operation next spring in Colorado, hopefully with better weather.</p>
<p><em>This article is part of Future Tense, a collaboration among&nbsp;</em><a href="http://www.asu.edu/?feature=research"><em>Arizona State University</em></a><em>, </em><a href="http://www.newamerica.org/"><em>New America</em></a><em>, and&nbsp;</em><strong><em>Slate</em></strong><em>.&nbsp;Future Tense explores the ways emerging technologies affect society, policy, and culture. To read more, visit the&nbsp;</em><a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/future_tense.html"><em>Future Tense blog</em></a><em>&nbsp;and the&nbsp;</em><a href="http://www.slate.com/articles/technology/future_tense.html"><em>Future Tense home page</em></a><em>. You can also&nbsp;</em><a href="http://www.twitter.com/futuretensenow"><em>follow us on Twitter</em></a><em>.</em></p>Fri, 22 May 2015 14:10:00 GMThttp://www.slate.com/articles/technology/future_tense/2015/05/honeybee_deaths_drought_pesticides_disease_are_all_hurting_bees.htmlEric Holthaus2015-05-22T14:10:00ZDrought, pesticides, diseases—it’s not a good time to be a bee.TechnologyThe Heartbreak of Finding Out That All Your Bees Died Over the Winter100150522008beesanimalsdroughtagricultureEric HolthausFuture Tensehttp://www.slate.com/articles/technology/future_tense/2015/05/honeybee_deaths_drought_pesticides_disease_are_all_hurting_bees.htmlfalsefalsefalseThe heartbreak of finding out that all your bees died over the winter:Drought, pesticides, diseases—it’s not a good time to be a bee.Photo by Jennifer AtchisonEric Holthaus and his bees, in better times.It’s Gotten This Bad: California Moves to Restrict Farmers’ Oldest Water Rightshttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2015/05/21/california_drought_water_restrictions_are_coming_for_farmers_with_century.html
<p>The <em>Associated Press</em> <a href="http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/U/US_CALIFORNIA_DROUGHT_WATER_CUTS?SITE=AP&amp;SECTION=HOME&amp;TEMPLATE=DEFAULT&amp;CTIME=2015-05-20-19-02-21">reports</a> that California will move on Friday to restrict century-old water rights in the agriculturally focused Central Valley, a step considered by many to be unthinkable <a href="http://www.sacbee.com/news/local/article2600034.html">as recently as last year</a>.</p>
<p>Regulators said the first orders Friday will affect those holding century-old water rights in the watershed of the San Joaquin River, which runs from the Sierra Nevada mountains to San Francisco Bay and is one of the main water sources for farms and communities.</p>
<p>In April, prompted to action by a record-low snowpack, the state <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2015/04/01/california_water_restrictions_jerry_brown_takes_action_but_gives_the_agriculture.html">issued a mandatory 25 percent restriction in urban water use</a>. Gov. Jerry Brown was criticized then for largely ignoring water use by farmers, who use about 80 percent of the state’s water each year. But Friday’s move is groundbreaking in California’s long struggle to reform its <a href="https://www.c-win.org/water-rights-primer.html">unique system of water rights</a>. Many affected farmers paid a premium for land with senior water rights, with the understanding they’d never be cut off. They invested in high-value orchards that require water year-round, with that same understanding in mind. Now that’s all about to change.</p>
<p>Felicia Marcus, the chairwoman of the state Water Resources Control Board, announced the decision at a public meeting Wednesday. &quot;It's about figuring out how to make terrible choices in the most fair and equitable way possible,&quot; she said. The affected farmers have <a href="http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/U/US_CALIFORNIA_DROUGHT_WATER_CUTS?SITE=AP&amp;SECTION=HOME&amp;TEMPLATE=DEFAULT&amp;CTIME=2015-05-20-19-02-21">already vowed</a> to challenge the decision in court, saying any restriction of senior rights <a href="http://www.sacbee.com/news/local/article2600034.html">amounts to a “water war</a>.”</p>
<p>Should the cuts go through, there will likely be a modest increase in the price of food grown in California as farmers <a href="http://www.sacbee.com/news/state/california/water-and-drought/article20686734.html">will rely more heavily</a> on relatively more expensive groundwater pumping in an attempt to preserve higher-value tree crops, like almonds, which require more water per acre and can’t be fallowed. More cuts could still be on the way, too: <a href="http://www.waterboards.ca.gov/waterrights/water_issues/programs/drought/water_availability.shtml">The Water Resources Control Board</a> says that essentially all water rights statewide are up for review this year, regardless of seniority.</p>
<p>The drought, California’s worst in a millennium, is starting to feel more and more like an emergency. And what’s becoming increasingly clear is that California’s water use will never again be the same. “This crisis is an opportunity to accelerate what we know we are going to have to do under climate change anyway,” <a href="http://www.sacbee.com/news/state/california/water-and-drought/article18005033.html">Marcus said in April</a>.</p>
<p>In California, water rights are legally determined essentially by who arrived at the river first, meaning families with gold rush-era lineage have long been protected, even during exceptionally dry years. The only other time senior water rights were restricted was during the state’s previously worst drought on record, in 1977, and even then only for <a href="https://twitter.com/FenitN/status/601234715169918977">a subset of users</a> on the Sacramento River. As far <a href="http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/U/US_CALIFORNIA_DROUGHT_WATER_CUTS?SITE=AP&amp;SECTION=HOME&amp;TEMPLATE=DEFAULT&amp;CTIME=2015-05-20-19-02-21">as anyone can recall</a>, senior rights have never been curtailed on the San Joaquin.</p>
<p>A lot has changed since 1977. California now supports 16 million more people, and a vast industrialized agriculture system worth $50 billion per year. And then there’s climate change. A <a href="http://www.slate.com/articles/technology/future_tense/2015/02/study_climate_change_may_bring_about_megadroughts_this_century.html">recent study</a> showed that a multiyear “megadrought” is increasingly likely to affect California for years to come due to rising temperatures and increasingly erratic rainfall as a result of global warming. It may <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/future_tense/2015/03/20/california_megadrought_it_s_already_begun.html">already be underway</a>.</p>
<p>In an interesting and unexpected twist, some farmers holding senior riparian rights in the north-to-south flowing Sacramento River—meaning their land is directly adjacent to the river—<a href="http://www.recordnet.com/article/20150519/NEWS/150519584">have offered the state a deal</a>: They’ll voluntarily fallow 25 percent of their land (or make an equivalent 25 percent improvement in efficiency) in return for being off the hook for future cuts, even if the drought worsens. Self-restricting riparian rights would allow for greater flow in the river and would limit <a href="http://goldrushcam.com/sierrasuntimes/index.php/news/local-news/3194-drought-plunges-california-into-more-regulatory-action">potentially destructive saltwater intrusion</a>, meaning the deal could have benefits statewide, thanks to California’s complex system of aqueducts and canals: Water from the Sacramento River routinely finds its way as far south as household faucets in San Diego, and reservoirs that feed the Sacramento are used as storage by farmers in the San Joaquin Valley. The Water Resources Control Board has indicated it'll make a decision on the farmers' offer on Friday.</p>Thu, 21 May 2015 16:42:30 GMThttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2015/05/21/california_drought_water_restrictions_are_coming_for_farmers_with_century.htmlEric Holthaus2015-05-21T16:42:30ZbriefingIt’s Gotten This Bad: California Moves to Restrict Farmers’ Oldest Water Rights227150521004california droughtthirsty westclimate change agricultureEric HolthausThe SlatestThe Slatesthttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2015/05/21/california_drought_water_restrictions_are_coming_for_farmers_with_century.htmlfalsefalsefalseCalifornia moves to restrict farmers' oldest water rights, teeing up a "water war":California’s water use will never again be the same.1519028539001AQ~~,AAAAAASoY90~,_gW1ZHvKG_2pKN0AJTySft1Irx-gT62t274359787500138083509090011519028539001AQ~~,AAAAAASoY90~,_gW1ZHvKG_2pKN0AJTySft1Irx-gT62t274359787500138083509090011519028539001AQ~~,AAAAAASoY90~,_gW1ZHvKG_2pKN0AJTySft1Irx-gT62t274359787500138083509090011519028539001AQ~~,AAAAAASoY90~,_gW1ZHvKG_2pKN0AJTySft1Irx-gT62t274359787500138083509090011519028539001AQ~~,AAAAAASoY90~,_gW1ZHvKG_2pKN0AJTySft1Irx-gT62t274359787500138083509090011519028539001AQ~~,AAAAAASoY90~,_gW1ZHvKG_2pKN0AJTySft1Irx-gT62t274359787500138083509090011519028539001AQ~~,AAAAAASoY90~,_gW1ZHvKG_2pKN0AJTySft1Irx-gT62t274359787500138083509090011519028539001AQ~~,AAAAAASoY90~,_gW1ZHvKG_2pKN0AJTySft1Irx-gT62t27435978750013808350909001Photo by Justin Sullivan/Getty ImagesFarmers have responded to the state's latest restrictions with threats to begin a &quot;water war&quot; in court.Obama Makes Strongest Case Yet for Combating National Security Threat of Climate Changehttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2015/05/20/obama_on_climate_change_denial_and_inaction_endangers_our_national_security.html
<p>President Obama took his <a href="https://twitter.com/BarackObama/status/601056926802186240">sharpest jab yet</a> on Wednesday against politicians who deny human influence on climate change, sending them this message: You’re a threat to national security.</p>
<p>Speaking at the United States Coast Guard Academy commencement in New London, Connecticut, Obama made climate change the <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/live/president-obama-delivers-keynote-address-commencement-exercises-us-guard-academypresident-obama">focus of his remarks</a>, calling the country’s failure to act to combat global warming a “<a href="https://twitter.com/WhiteHouse/status/601062066905096192">dereliction of duty</a>.” In association with the speech, the White House also <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2015/05/20/white-house-report-national-security-implications-changing-climate">released</a> an 11-page report summarizing the government’s findings and initiatives on national security and climate change.</p>
<p>In his speech, Obama said that he anticipates “<a href="https://twitter.com/WhiteHouse/status/601074941690191873">a rise in climate change refugees</a>” and “increased competition for resources” over the coming decades. To these threats, Obama said, “I guarantee the Coast Guard will have to respond … you need to be ready.”</p>
<p>There’s evidence that this is already playing out in especially sensitive parts of the world. Obama’s speech linked climate stress to <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/environment/earth-insight/2014/may/09/behind-rise-nigeria-boko-haram-climate-disaster-peak-oil-depletion">the rise of Boko Haram</a> in Nigeria and <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/future_tense/2015/03/02/study_climate_change_helped_spark_syrian_civil_war.html">the civil war in Syria</a>, with severe drought and associated food shortages seen by experts as an instigator of each conflict. A <a href="http://www.rtcc.org/2014/10/29/climate-change-could-create-more-boko-haram-extremists-study/">recent study</a> by the risk analysis firm Maplecroft identified 32 countries where climate change could “amplify” civil unrest, including China, India, Pakistan, Yemen, and the Philippines.</p>
<p>The Pentagon <a href="http://www.defense.gov/news/newsarticle.aspx?id=123398">now refers</a> to climate change as a “threat multiplier.” For these reasons, Obama concluded that global warming “cannot be subject to the usual politics.” The effects of climate change we’ve already seen have <a href="http://www.slate.com/articles/technology/future_tense/2014/04/david_titley_climate_change_war_an_interview_with_the_retired_rear_admiral.html">been enough to convert</a> at least one former military commander from climate change denier to climate advocate.</p>
<p>And responding to the president’s speech, retired military commanders <a href="http://climateandsecurity.org/2015/05/20/u-s-coast-guard-on-the-front-lines-of-climate-change-and-national-security/">issued a call for Congress</a> to invest more resources in preparing for increasing climate-related security risks. Earlier this year House Republicans <a href="http://mashable.com/2015/03/17/republicans-national-security-global-warming-spending/">proposed a cut</a> in the Department of Defense and Central Intelligence Agency budgets related to climate and security.</p>
<p>Obama’s emphasis on the immediate national security and public health implications of climate change is part of his administration’s <a href="http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/politics/2014/06/epa_emissions_regulations_and_climate_change_why_the_white_house_is_talking.html">ongoing strategy</a> of broadening the case for climate action beyond the comparatively far-off threats of sea level rise and species loss. He also mentioned the link between climate and security in <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/future_tense/2015/01/20/sotu_2015_obama_mocks_gop_s_i_m_not_a_scientist_line_on_climate.html">this year’s State of the Union address</a> and in <a href="http://www.slate.com/articles/health_and_science/science/2015/04/obama_s_earth_day_speech_the_everglades_is_losing_to_climate_change.html">an Earth Day speech in the Everglades</a>. In a February interview with <em>Vox</em>, the president pointed toward <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2015/02/11/terrorism_vs_climate_change_obama_says_global_warming_impacts_more_people.html">the overwhelming evidence</a> that the risk of climate change outweighs terrorism.</p>
<p>Still, it’s not totally clear how effective the new emphasis on national security is for changing hearts and minds in Congress toward broad-based climate action. For one, the Obama administration is still seemingly embracing its “all-of-the-above” energy strategy, recently <a href="http://www.slate.com/articles/health_and_science/science/2015/05/protest_against_shell_drilling_in_the_arctic_kayaks_and_boats_near_seattle.html">reauthorizing Shell’s request</a> to drill for oil in the geopolitically sensitive Arctic, a move that <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/future_tense/2015/01/09/new_study_says_we_should_leave_most_remaining_fossil_fuels_in_the_ground.html">scientists say is incompatible</a> with keeping climate change at “safe” levels. As long as the Obama administration attempts to have it both ways on climate change and energy policy, you can expect Republicans will continue their own business-as-usual path of foot-dragging.</p>Wed, 20 May 2015 20:31:53 GMThttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2015/05/20/obama_on_climate_change_denial_and_inaction_endangers_our_national_security.htmlEric Holthaus2015-05-20T20:31:53ZbriefingObama Makes Strongest Case Yet for Combating National Security Threat of Climate Change227150520005barack obamaclimate changeglobal warmingnational securitypentagonEric HolthausThe SlatestThe Slatesthttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2015/05/20/obama_on_climate_change_denial_and_inaction_endangers_our_national_security.htmlfalsefalsefalseObama to climate chance deniers: You're in "dereliction of duty""Dereliction of duty"... them's fightin' words Mr. President.1519028539001AQ~~,AAAAAASoY90~,_gW1ZHvKG_2pKN0AJTySft1Irx-gT62t274359787500138083509090011519028539001AQ~~,AAAAAASoY90~,_gW1ZHvKG_2pKN0AJTySft1Irx-gT62t274359787500138083509090011519028539001AQ~~,AAAAAASoY90~,_gW1ZHvKG_2pKN0AJTySft1Irx-gT62t274359787500138083509090011519028539001AQ~~,AAAAAASoY90~,_gW1ZHvKG_2pKN0AJTySft1Irx-gT62t274359787500138083509090011519028539001AQ~~,AAAAAASoY90~,_gW1ZHvKG_2pKN0AJTySft1Irx-gT62t274359787500138083509090011519028539001AQ~~,AAAAAASoY90~,_gW1ZHvKG_2pKN0AJTySft1Irx-gT62t274359787500138083509090011519028539001AQ~~,AAAAAASoY90~,_gW1ZHvKG_2pKN0AJTySft1Irx-gT62t274359787500138083509090011519028539001AQ~~,AAAAAASoY90~,_gW1ZHvKG_2pKN0AJTySft1Irx-gT62t27435978750013808350909001Photo by Spencer Platt/Getty ImagesClimate change is already blurring security risks worldwide. On that basis, Obama made the case for action at the U.S. Coast Guard Academy on May 20, 2015.Kayaktivismhttp://www.slate.com/articles/health_and_science/science/2015/05/protest_against_shell_drilling_in_the_arctic_kayaks_and_boats_near_seattle.html
<p>This past weekend, against the steel gray sky of the Puget Sound, hundreds of climate activists took to the water to surround Shell’s <em>Polar Pioneer</em>, the 307-foot-tall flagship of the company’s <a href="http://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/shell-oil-rig-arriving-today-just-the-start-of-arctic-drilling-fleet/">newly resurgent Arctic drilling fleet</a>. The protesters’ fragile presence, in their small and colorful boats, was a bright contrast to the ominous oil-drilling equipment. &nbsp;</p>
<p>The kayaktivism in Seattle was a response to the Obama administration’s <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/moneybox/2015/05/11/shell_gets_conditional_approval_from_white_house_to_start_drilling_in_the.html">conditional approval</a> last week of the <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/may/11/shell-arctic-drilling-alaska-oil-gas">resumption of offshore oil drilling</a> in the Arctic. That decision came under immediate fire by environmentalists, among them Bill McKibben, who in a <em>New York Times</em> op-ed <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2015/05/13/opinion/obamas-catastrophic-climate-change-denial.html">called it</a> “climate denial of the status quo sort.” (The U.S. special envoy for the Arctic, Adm. Robert Papp, on Monday <a href="http://www.rtcc.org/2015/05/18/shell-arctic-oil-drilling-reaction-overblown-us-envoy/">said</a> its go-ahead for Shell’s proposed activities represents a “middle ground” between environmental and economic interests in Alaska.)</p>
<p>The protesters’ message is urgent: By allowing the world to continue to operate under the assumption that oil underfoot (or, in this case, under melting sea ice) is oil free for the taking, we’re sentencing the planet to an inescapable fate of catastrophic climate change. Avoiding the worst requires a radical rethinking of what’s possible, and soon.</p>
<p>On Monday, <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/may/18/fossil-fuel-companies-getting-10m-a-minute-in-subsidies-says-imf?CMP=share_btn_tw">a new estimate</a> from the International Monetary Fund aimed to put a figure on the true cost of fossil fuels borne by world governments. Half of this “effective subsidy” comes from pollution-related public health costs associated with poor health and premature death. About a quarter of the subsidy, or $1.27 trillion per year, is the estimated present and future harm due to climate change, though the authors note that that’s probably an underestimate. In total, the world’s fossil fuel companies will rack up an astounding $5.3 trillion in effective subsidies in 2015, more than <a href="http://www.carbonbrief.org/blog/2014/08/why-fossil-fuel-divestment-wont-be-easy/">their combined worth</a>. That’s 6.5 percent of global GDP, or $10 million a minute. The takeaway here is that major oil companies like Shell couldn’t exist without their continued support from the world’s taxpayers.</p>
<p>According to <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/may/17/shell-climate-change-rhetoric-the-real-story?CMP=share_btn_tw">an investigation</a> by the <em>Guardian</em>, Shell’s internal projections for expected climate change are for nearly twice the level that scientists consider to be safe. Yet the company continues to push for drilling in ever more difficult places, like the Arctic. <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/future_tense/2015/01/09/new_study_says_we_should_leave_most_remaining_fossil_fuels_in_the_ground.html">A study</a> in January, which helped spur the <em>Guardian</em>’s own <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/mar/06/climate-change-guardian-threat-to-earth-alan-rusbridger">climate advocacy</a> and this weekend’s Seattle protests, said that for the world to keep its commitment to holding global warming to less than 2 degrees Celsius, 100 percent of Arctic oil reserves would have to stay in the ground.</p>
<p>Shell has <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2012/09/09/shell_arctic_drilling_drills_top_hole_of_exploratory_well_in_chukchi_sea.html">already spent billions</a> in a long-term investment in its Arctic operations, eyeing a potential 4.3 billion barrels of oil over the next 77 years from the Chukchi Sea near Alaska, where the <em>Polar Pioneer</em> is headed. During that time, the U.S. government’s own analysis <a href="http://www.boem.gov/uploadedFiles/BOEM/About_BOEM/BOEM_Regions/Alaska_Region/Leasing_and_Plans/Leasing/Lease_Sales/Sale_193/2015_0127_LS193_Final_2nd_SEIS_Vol1.pdf">concludes</a> that “there is a 75 percent chance of one or more large spills” greater than 1,000 gallons—which could devastate fragile Arctic ecosystems and the native communities that depend on them.</p>
<p>Shell’s persistence (and the U.S. government’s acquiescence) is roughly equivalent to raising a giant middle finger to the Earth. As is the case with climate change in general, some of <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2014/mar/31/climate-change-poor-suffer-most-un-report">the most vulnerable</a> people and places are the ones set to bear the brunt of harm of Arctic oil drilling.</p>
<p>In 2013, former NASA climate scientist James Hansen <a href="http://qz.com/154196/the-only-way-to-stop-climate-change-now-may-be-revolution/">predicted this growing surge of climate activism</a> and even called for “a human ‘tipping point’ ”— sudden nearly universal recognition of climate action as a non-negotiable moral issue deserving immediate action—as one of the few remaining interventions that could steer humanity off its business-as-usual course of plundering the atmosphere’s <a href="http://www.carbonbrief.org/blog/2014/11/six-years-worth-of-current-emissions-would-blow-the-carbon-budget-for-1-point-5-degrees/">remaining carbon budget</a>. His study concluded that the alternatives, such as <a href="http://www.slate.com/articles/technology/future_tense/2015/05/republican_bob_inglis_is_america_s_best_hope_for_near_term_climate_action.html">working toward a global price on carbon</a> or <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/future_tense/2015/02/24/free_air_carbon_capture_a_climate_engineering_idea_worth_considering.html">free-air carbon capture technology</a>, were simply too slow. “Our objective is to define what the science indicates is needed, not to assess political feasibility,” he wrote. That same year, <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2013/04/02/science/james-e-hansen-retiring-from-nasa-to-fight-global-warming.html?pagewanted=all&amp;_r=0">he left NASA</a> to join the activist community, saying “as a government employee, you can’t testify against the government.”</p>
<p>The cost of waiting to take bold, disruptive action on climate change is enormous. As annual emissions continue to rise on a global basis, it becomes more and more <a href="http://www.vox.com/2015/5/15/8612113/truth-climate-change">difficult to imagine a realistic pathway</a> of decarbonizing the global economy to preserve a safe climate.</p>
<p>All of this is to say that, whether by escalating temperatures or escalating voices, things are going to change.</p>
<p>Enter the kayaks.</p>
<p>The symbolism of hundreds of brightly colored boats set against a seemingly unstoppable behemoth is inescapable. We are those kayaks.</p>
<p>On Sunday, I spoke with Sydney Brownstone, who <a href="http://www.thestranger.com/authors/20774260/sydney-brownstone">has led</a> the <em>Stranger</em>‘s <a href="http://www.thestranger.com/blogs/slog/2015/05/16/22228962/live-coverage-of-the-paddle-in-seattle-from-land-ferry-and-kayak">coverage</a> of Shell’s presence in Seattle. She, too, was in the water on Saturday and noticed a palpable difference from previous rallies. “When have we seen people put their bodies on the line for climate change, specifically? It’s a fascinating development,” Brownstone said. “In many ways, the people who were out there, their fight is against a sense of fatalism.”</p>
<p>She continued:</p>
<blockquote>
Seeing a bunch of tiny kayaks in contrast to this enormous, sophisticated feat of engineering can make people feel uncomfortable. Some will laugh at the crazy enviros. Others will feel fear. Others will wonder if they, too, should have been out there. And, in my opinion, that’s all productive. Kayaktivists are trying to rouse some kind of productive discomfort toward cognitive dissonance.
</blockquote>
<p>So why not imagine a world in which a feeble flotilla of kayaks can stop an oil behemoth? That’s exactly the kind of scenario in which success starts to feel inevitable instead of unimaginable. That’s why the kayaks were out there.</p>Tue, 19 May 2015 17:09:45 GMThttp://www.slate.com/articles/health_and_science/science/2015/05/protest_against_shell_drilling_in_the_arctic_kayaks_and_boats_near_seattle.htmlEric Holthaus2015-05-19T17:09:45ZThese boats protesting oil drilling are the perfect symbol of climate change activism.Health and ScienceThese Kayaktivists Are the Perfect Symbol of Climate Change Activism100150519010climate changearcticfossil fuelsEric HolthausSciencehttp://www.slate.com/articles/health_and_science/science/2015/05/protest_against_shell_drilling_in_the_arctic_kayaks_and_boats_near_seattle.htmlfalsefalsefalseKayaktivist protest of Arctic drilling is the perfect symbol of climate change activism. By @EricHolthaus:Shell raises a giant middle finger to the Earth.Photo by Ason Redmond/Reuters/Fotoware/ColorFactoryActivists protest the Shell Oil Company’s drilling rig <em>Polar Pioneer</em> parked at the Port of Seattle on May 16, 2015.NASA: 10,000-Year-Old Ice Shelf in Antarctica Will Soon Be Completely Gonehttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2015/05/15/antarctica_sea_level_rise_nasa_study_says_larsen_b_ice_shelf_collapse_is.html
<p>Earth’s polar regions are in the midst of a stunning transformation. As global warming accelerates, evidence of change is <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/future_tense/2015/05/13/crevasses_on_greenland_glaciers_are_evidence_of_the_increasing_rate_of_ice.html">perhaps most obvious</a> in our planet’s ice.</p>
<p>More than a decade ago, scientists watched in awe as Antarctica’s Larsen B Ice Shelf shattered almost completely in just six weeks. No one had ever seen such a large mass of ice vanish so quickly.</p>
<p><a href="http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Features/WorldOfChange/larsenb.php">Here’s what it looked like</a>, between January 31 and April 13, 2002:</p>
<p>Now, <a href="http://www.nasa.gov/press-release/nasa-study-shows-antarctica-s-larsen-b-ice-shelf-nearing-its-final-act">a new study from NASA</a>, released this week, predicts that what remains of Larsen B will be totally gone in less than five years. Since ice shelves are floating extensions of glaciers, the breakup won’t immediately raise sea levels. But ice shelves do act as a barrier for their parent glaciers—so once they’re gone, the door opens for those glaciers to accelerate.</p>
<p>Evidence from other recent ice shelf disintegrations, like the much smaller Larsen A in 1995 and the 2002 Larsen B collapse, point toward as much as an eight-fold increase in speed of the glaciers that created them—ushering in a potential spike in sea level rise across the globe once fresh ice reaches the ocean.</p>
<p>What’s left of the Larsen B is only half the size of Rhode Island—a relative &nbsp;pipsqueak when compared to other vulnerable ice shelves on the still-frozen-for-now continent. And that’s what really worries scientists.</p>
<p>“We have this rare opportunity of this ice shelf destabilizing and eventually collapsing in front of our eyes,” said Ala Khazendar, the study’s lead author in a video statement. “It is certainly a warning.” .</p>
<p>Khazendar’s co-author Eric Rignot agrees, emailing me that the ongoing breakup of Larsen B is significant mostly in its lesson that change in Antarctica can happen more quickly than scientists had previously thought possible. “Its importance is that it shows what will happen to the huge glaciers farther south once their ice shelves break up to the point of no return.”</p>
<p>Next up for collapse is the Larsen C, the size of Scotland, which has been around for 150,000 years. Should it disappear, it could require a re-write of sea level rise plans for coastal cities worldwide. Last August, <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/future_tense/2014/08/14/the_new_worst_case_scenario_for_ice_loss_in_antarctica.html">I wrote about</a> what that near-term worse case scenario might look like: Should its melt rate continue to trend above previous estimates, Antarctica may produce an extra foot of sea level rise by 2100, which would pose a threat to low-lying coastal areas worldwide. (For example: <a href="http://www.economist.com/blogs/gulliver/2013/10/new-york">A post-Sandy study</a> of New York City’s flooded subway system showed one tunnel escaped flooding by just three inches, saving the city hundreds of millions of dollars.) A <a href="http://www.carbonbrief.org/blog/2015/05/antarctic-larsen-c-ice-shelf-at-risk-of-collapse-study-warns/">new study on Larsen C</a>, which now has <a href="http://www.dailykos.com/story/2015/03/09/1369516/-Another-Blow-to-Antarctic-Glacial-Stability-as-Larsen-C-Ice-Shelf-Cracks-Up">a giant crack in its surface</a>, showed that it’s now melting both from above and below, thanks in part to warmer ocean temperatures.</p>
<p>“It is only a matter of time before it breaks up,” Rignot said of the Larsen C. His best guess: “3 years, 10 years, 20 years, hard to tell.”</p>
<p>Rignot is most concerned about the Ross Ice Shelf and the Filchner-Ronne Ice Shelf, <a href="http://nsidc.org/cryosphere/quickfacts/iceshelves.html">Antarctica’s largest</a>, both of which are bigger than California and more than a thousand feet thick. Though these ice shelves are thought to be stable for now, a <a href="http://pubs.usgs.gov/fs/fs2-00/">fact sheet</a> from the U.S. Geological Survey says that the glaciers kept in check by the Ross and Filchner-Ronne could create a “rapid rise” in global sea levels of more than 30 feet, enough to flood about a quarter of the U.S. population.</p>Fri, 15 May 2015 22:15:42 GMThttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2015/05/15/antarctica_sea_level_rise_nasa_study_says_larsen_b_ice_shelf_collapse_is.htmlEric Holthaus2015-05-15T22:15:42ZbriefingNASA: 10,000-Year-Old Ice Shelf in Antarctica Will Soon Be Completely Gone227150515009antarcticaglobal warmingclimate changesea level risenasaEric HolthausThe SlatestThe Slatesthttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2015/05/15/antarctica_sea_level_rise_nasa_study_says_larsen_b_ice_shelf_collapse_is.htmlfalsefalsefalseNASA: A 10,000-year-old ice shelf in Antarctica faces imminent collapse, with ominous signs for the future:NASA: 10,000-Year-Old Ice Shelf in Antarctica Will Soon Be Completely Gone1519028538001AQ~~,AAAAAASoY90~,_gW1ZHvKG_1U0LqDiRqg6y9siD7-Z_bO42390731430011519028538001AQ~~,AAAAAASoY90~,_gW1ZHvKG_1U0LqDiRqg6y9siD7-Z_bO42390731430011519028538001AQ~~,AAAAAASoY90~,_gW1ZHvKG_1U0LqDiRqg6y9siD7-Z_bO42390731430011519028538001AQ~~,AAAAAASoY90~,_gW1ZHvKG_1U0LqDiRqg6y9siD7-Z_bO42390731430011519028538001AQ~~,AAAAAASoY90~,_gW1ZHvKG_1U0LqDiRqg6y9siD7-Z_bO42390731430011519028538001AQ~~,AAAAAASoY90~,_gW1ZHvKG_1U0LqDiRqg6y9siD7-Z_bO42390731430011519028538001AQ~~,AAAAAASoY90~,_gW1ZHvKG_1U0LqDiRqg6y9siD7-Z_bO4239073143001Photo by VANDERLEI ALMEIDA/AFP/Getty ImagesAntarctica's fragile ice shelves are facing imminent collapse, according to a recent NASA study. Here, an iceberg is spotted by the Brazilian Navy's Oceanographic Ship Ary Rongel in Antarctica on March 5, 2014.Huge El Ni&ntilde;o Becoming More Likely in 2015http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2015/05/14/el_ni_o_2015_largest_ever.html
<p>Last year at this time, I was <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/future_tense/2014/04/07/el_nino_2014_2015_forecasts_show_it_could_grow_into_a_monster.html">harping about</a> the &quot;monster&quot; El Ni&ntilde;o that seemed to be brewing in the tropical Pacific Ocean. It <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/future_tense/2014/11/06/el_ni_o_prediction_2014_why_weather_forecasters_were_wrong_about_a_super.html">didn’t pan out</a>. But from the looks of the latest data, I was just one year too early.</p>
<p>Despite last year’s false alarm, there are several reasons to believe that this year’s version of El Ni&ntilde;o is the real deal.</p>
<p>First off, it’s <a href="http://www.weatherwest.com/archives/3124">rapidly intensifying</a>. El Ni&ntilde;o is about <a href="http://blogs.reuters.com/data-dive/2015/05/11/how-an-el-nino-works/?utm_source=twitter">self-reinforcing feedbacks between the ocean and the atmosphere</a>, and from all accounts, this one has its foot on the accelerator pedal.</p>
<p>If it continues, the impacts will be felt around the globe—here’s my <a href="http://www.slate.com/articles/technology/future_tense/2014/04/el_nino_2014_2015_what_the_weather_pattern_means_for_60_plus_places.html">detailed rundown of what to expect</a>. Among them: drought in Australia, Southeast Asia, and <a href="http://www.ndtv.com/india-news/el-nino-has-emerged-india-among-worst-hit-as-asia-braces-for-crop-damage-762473">perhaps India</a>, with flooding in Peru and Southern California.</p>
<p>For the first time since 1998—the year of the <a href="http://darwin.bio.uci.edu/sustain/ENSO.html">strongest El Ni&ntilde;o on record</a>, which played havoc with the world’s weather patterns and was blamed for 23,000 deaths worldwide—ocean temperatures in all five El Ni&ntilde;o zones have risen above 1 degree Celsius warmer than normal at the same time. That’s the criteria for a moderately strong event, and <a href="https://twitter.com/EricHolthaus/status/598916346890440704">the latest forecast models are unanimous</a> that it's going to keep strengthening for the rest of the year.</p>
<p>A <a href="https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/598862354860929025">sub-surface wave</a> of warm water is driving this trend, which has reached off-the-charts levels during the first four months of 2015.</p>
<p>That data was enough for Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology to officially upgrade the Pacific Ocean to El Ni&ntilde;o conditions this week. David Jones, head of climate monitoring for the BOM, <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/environment/weather/bureau-of-meteorology-declares-el-nino-event-in-australia-20150512-ggzdgy.html">told reporters</a> that the 2015 El Ni&ntilde;o is shaping up to be “quite a substantial event … not a weak one&nbsp;or a near miss.”</p>
<p>The U.S. weather service, which uses slightly different criteria, declared official El Ni&ntilde;o conditions <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2015/03/05/el_ni_o_it_s_here_and_it_will_boost_global_warming_to_record_highs.html">back in March</a>. The U.S. <a href="http://climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/may-2015-enso-forecast-will-el-ni%C3%B1o-be-overachiever-or-peaked-high-school">updated its outlook</a> on Thursday, boosting odds of a continuation of El Ni&ntilde;o until this summer to around 90 percent—what they called a “pretty confident forecast.”</p>
<p>Autumn outlooks made this time of year normally have an error of plus-or-minus 0.6 degrees Celsius, meaning the current forecast of a 2.2 degree warming of the tropical Pacific by December essentially locks in a strong event. At the low end, we can expect the biggest El Ni&ntilde;o since the last one in 2009-2010, a moderately strong event. At the top end, this El Ni&ntilde;o could be the strongest <a href="http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ensoyears.shtml">in recorded history</a>.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://twitter.com/EricHolthaus/status/598923185891880960">first glimpse at this winter’s forecast</a> shows a <a href="https://twitter.com/EricHolthaus/status/597929933952847872">textbook El Ni&ntilde;o signal</a> for the United States: abnormally wet in Southern California and dry in the Pacific Northwest. For those hoping for an end to the drought, multi-year rainfall deficits in California are now so huge that even a very wet year <a href="http://www.latimes.com/local/lanow/la-me-ln-el-nino-20150514-story.html">likely wouldn’t erase them</a>. What’s more, heavy El Ni&ntilde;o rainstorms frequently come to California via <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/future_tense/2014/02/14/atmospheric_river_rain_can_t_stop_california_s_drought_of_epic_proportions.html">tropical atmospheric river events</a>, also known as the Pineapple Express. While those rains can help fill dwindling reservoirs, they’re often too warm to produce significant snowpack in the mountains—which is crucial for agricultural needs during the following summer.</p>
<p>Thursday also brings fresh evidence that 2015 is shaping up to be the hottest year in history. April’s <a href="http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v3/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt">global temperature data from NASA</a> ended the warmest 12-month period since records begin in 1880. That record beat one set just last month (April 2014 to March 2015), which itself beat the record set just one month before that (March 2014 to February 2015). It’s almost like there’s some sort of trend or something. And a strong El Ni&ntilde;o could help initiate <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2015/04/15/_2015_is_hot_a_weirdly_warm_pacific_ocean_is_set_to_make_this_year_the_warmest.html">a surge in global warming</a> that could last more than a decade.</p>
<p>A <a href="http://www.climatecentral.org/news/climate-change-could-make-super-el-ninos-more-likely-16976">recent study</a> also showed that strong El Ni&ntilde;os themselves might become more common in coming years due to <a href="http://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/enso-climate-change-headache">changing ocean temperature patterns</a> associated with global warming—though that evidence is far from definitive.</p>Thu, 14 May 2015 20:43:29 GMThttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2015/05/14/el_ni_o_2015_largest_ever.htmlEric Holthaus2015-05-14T20:43:29ZbriefingHuge El Ni&ntilde;o Becoming More Likely in 2015227150514008Eric HolthausThe SlatestThe Slatesthttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2015/05/14/el_ni_o_2015_largest_ever.htmlfalsefalsefalseHuge El Niño Becoming More Likely in 2015Huge El Niño Becoming More Likely in 2015AFP/GettyA 2010 flood in Peru. More flooding in Peru—among many other consequences—is likely if 2015's El Ni&ntilde;o is as severe as recent readings indicate it will be.Greenland’s Glaciers are Accelerating So Fast, They Have Stretch Markshttp://www.slate.com/blogs/future_tense/2015/05/13/crevasses_on_greenland_glaciers_are_evidence_of_the_increasing_rate_of_ice.html
<p>The evidence is <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/future_tense/2014/08/14/the_new_worst_case_scenario_for_ice_loss_in_antarctica.html">overwhelming</a>: Earth’s polar regions are losing ice at a <a href="http://www.ucar.edu/news/releases/2007/seaice.shtml">stunning rate</a>. There’s so much ice being lost from Antarctica, for example, that scientists <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/future_tense/2014/09/29/antarctic_ice_melt_causes_small_shift_in_gravity.html">can detect local changes in gravity</a>.</p>
<p>To measure the changes, NASA launched Operation IceBridge, an initiative to map the planet’s dwindling ice sheets by aircraft in three dimensions. Now in its eighth year, Operation IceBridge is starting to produce some stunning results.</p>
<p>The IceBridge planes are equipped with lasers and other remote sensing equipment that can virtually tunnel through the ice and make accurate measurements of its thickness.</p>
<p>But one of the most interesting recent observations, in my opinion, is from the polar scientists simply <a href="http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/IOTD/view.php?id=85858">looking out the window</a>. <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3L7lOBvCpKQ">On their flights</a>, they pass over some stunning scenery:</p>
<p>As the glaciers near the ocean, they begin to accelerate and start stretching apart. These stretch marks are better known as crevasses, and they’re breathtaking when viewed from above:</p>
<p>Forming crevasses is a natural part of a glacier’s life cycle—just before it breaks apart into countless icebergs once it reaches the ocean. But there’s theory and evidence that crevasses in Greenland are becoming more common with rising temperatures.</p>
<p>“As glaciers accelerate, they should stretch more and produce more crevasses. In relative terms, any increase in area [covered with crevasses] is pretty small (i.e., a fraction of a percent of the area of the ice sheet),” said University of Washington polar scientist Ian Joughin in an email.</p>
<p>Operation IceBridge scientist Michael Studinger told me that since the aircraft can’t measure glacier speed directly (that’s best done from satellites), the team members often use crevasses as a proxy speedometer. So while the crevasses may be beautiful, they’re an ominous sign.</p>
<p>Greenland’s fastest glacier, Jakobshavn Isbrae, is <a href="http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2014/02/140204-greenland-glacier-iceberg-speed-climate-change-science/">now moving four times</a> as fast as it was 20 years ago during the summertime. A <a href="http://www.washington.edu/news/2012/05/03/increasing-speed-of-greenland-glaciers-gives-new-insight-for-rising-sea-level/">recent survey</a> of all Greenland glaciers shows an increase in speed by about 30 percent in the last 10 years.</p>
<p>Of course, all this ice has to go somewhere. Ice melt is one reason <a href="http://www.rtcc.org/2015/05/12/sea-levels-are-rising-faster-than-previous-estimates/">sea level rise is accelerating</a> along with the speed of the glaciers.</p>
<p>Joughin was part of a team of researchers who last year <a href="http://www.washington.edu/news/2014/05/12/west-antarctic-ice-sheet-collapse-is-under-way/">concluded</a> a key glacier in West Antarctica had entered a state of “irreversible collapse” that has essentially locked in centuries of sea level rise. That study used data from Operation IceBridge.</p>Wed, 13 May 2015 22:52:59 GMThttp://www.slate.com/blogs/future_tense/2015/05/13/crevasses_on_greenland_glaciers_are_evidence_of_the_increasing_rate_of_ice.htmlEric Holthaus2015-05-13T22:52:59ZTechnologyGreenland’s Glaciers are Accelerating So Fast, They're Getting Stretch Marks203150513008greenlandclimate changeglobal warmingsea level riseantarcticanasaEric HolthausFuture TenseFuture Tensehttp://www.slate.com/blogs/future_tense/2015/05/13/crevasses_on_greenland_glaciers_are_evidence_of_the_increasing_rate_of_ice.htmlfalsefalsefalseEvidence of climate change #928175: Greenland's glaciers are getting stretch marks [PHOTOS]Greenland’s Glaciers are Accelerating So Fast, They're Getting Stretch Marks1519028539001AQ~~,AAAAAASoY90~,_gW1ZHvKG_2pKN0AJTySft1Irx-gT62t423295063700142299989110011519028539001AQ~~,AAAAAASoY90~,_gW1ZHvKG_2pKN0AJTySft1Irx-gT62t423295063700142299989110011519028539001AQ~~,AAAAAASoY90~,_gW1ZHvKG_2pKN0AJTySft1Irx-gT62t423295063700142299989110011519028539001AQ~~,AAAAAASoY90~,_gW1ZHvKG_2pKN0AJTySft1Irx-gT62t423295063700142299989110011519028539001AQ~~,AAAAAASoY90~,_gW1ZHvKG_2pKN0AJTySft1Irx-gT62t423295063700142299989110011519028539001AQ~~,AAAAAASoY90~,_gW1ZHvKG_2pKN0AJTySft1Irx-gT62t423295063700142299989110011519028539001AQ~~,AAAAAASoY90~,_gW1ZHvKG_2pKN0AJTySft1Irx-gT62t42329506370014229998911001Jason BoxGreenland's glaciers are racing to the sea at ever faster rates, causing them to stretch out. Here, a field of crevasses on the Qassimiut lobe in southern Greenland.This Man Is America’s Best Hope for Near-Term Climate Actionhttp://www.slate.com/articles/technology/future_tense/2015/05/republican_bob_inglis_is_america_s_best_hope_for_near_term_climate_action.html
<p>Conservative climate champions are often laughed off or ignored. But what’s happening within the American political right could <a href="http://thischangeseverything.org/">change everything</a>, and fast.</p>
<p>Each year since 1989, the JFK Library bestows its Profile in Courage award to a public servant who takes a principled but unpopular position. <a href="http://www.jfklibrary.org/About-Us/News-and-Press/Press-Releases/2015-PICA-Ceremony.aspx">This year</a>, the award went to Bob Inglis, a former congressman from South Carolina who’s turned into America’s best hope for near-term climate action. Oh, he’s also a Republican.</p>
<p>As you might expect, Inglis wasn’t always a climate campaigner. In his acceptance speech last week at the JFK Library in Boston, he described how and why he changed his mind on global warming:</p>
<p>Inglis served in Congress for 12 nonconsecutive years, but once his children reached voting age, they persuaded him to take a closer look at climate science. Inglis traveled to Antarctica—twice—and his conversations with scientists there convinced him climate change was a growing threat that everyone, especially conservatives, needed to take more seriously. Science, plus his deep Christian faith, convinced Inglis that taking action on climate—and saving countless lives in the process—was the right thing to do. Almost immediately, he began <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/28/opinion/28inglis.html?partner=permalink&amp;exprod=permalink">advocating for</a> carbon pricing: He argued that it would be good for business <em>and </em>the environment. He even began looking to Canada for inspiration. Since 2008, the <a href="http://www.fin.gov.bc.ca/tbs/tp/climate/carbon_tax.htm">government of British Columbia</a> has had in place arguably <a href="http://www.motherjones.com/environment/2014/03/british-columbia-carbon-tax-sanity">the most successful climate policy on the planet</a>. During <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4o2ZpvxnB28">a 2009 speech</a> on the House floor, he called an American plan for a British Columbia–style revenue-neutral carbon tax a “fabulous opportunity.”</p>
<p>But his belief in the science of climate change became a liability for Inglis during the contentious 2010 primary election—an election associated with the rise of the Tea Party brand of ultraconservatism—and Inglis lost his seat <a href="http://talkingpointsmemo.com/dc/bob-inglis-s-defeat-sends-warning-signal-to-gop-don-t-badmouth-glenn-beck">in a landslide</a>.</p>
<p>Since then, Republican views on climate change have inched ahead, and Inglis has made it his mission to spread the word: Protecting our planet is the ultimate bipartisan issue. “My grandfather’s legacy is kept alive by Bob’s courageous decision to sacrifice his political career to demand action on the issue that will shape life on Earth for generations to come,” said JFK descendant Jack Schlossberg, who presented the award to Inglis.</p>
<p>This is the point at which progressives and <a href="http://grist.org/article/2010-10-20-introducing-climate-hawks/">climate hawks</a> might understandably get a bit cynical. But hear me out: For years now, the Republican electorate <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2015/01/31/us/politics/most-americans-support-government-action-on-climate-change-poll-finds.html?_r=0">has been shifting</a> toward accepting the scientific consensus on climate change. <a href="http://environment.yale.edu/climate-communication/article/politics-and-global-warming-spring-2014/">A recent survey</a> showed moderate Republicans—which still make up about half of all Republican voters—are now essentially indistinguishable from the general population in terms of their beliefs on climate. More than 70 percent of Republicans now believe that human activities are contributing to global warming.</p>
<p>Most importantly, there’s <a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/11/07/climate-change-conservatives_n_6124028.html">recent evidence</a>—and a few <a href="http://www.salon.com/2014/03/14/wyoming_chooses_fossil_fuels_over_science_education/">case studies</a>—that point toward the root of Republican hostility toward climate action as mostly a matter of disliking the solutions on the table. That’s helped the fossil fuel industry <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/mar/25/fossil-fuel-firms-are-still-bankrolling-climate-denial-lobby-groups">fund a load of anti-science rhetoric</a> and propelled climate change into the nation’s <a href="http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2014/05/27/3441360/climate-change-controversy/">most divisive political issue</a>. An optimist might say all that’s needed is a climate-action proposal that conservatives can get excited about.</p>
<p>That’s where Inglis comes in.</p>
<p>Essentially, Inglis is proposing cover for Republicans to vote for a price on carbon by offsetting any revenue it produces with equal or greater cuts in corporate taxes and personal income taxes. Such a proposal might turn the United States—which currently has among the highest business taxes in the world—<a href="http://www.slate.com/articles/business/moneybox/2014/07/corporate_income_tax_loopholes_and_inversions_why_america_should_consider.html">into a tax haven</a> and help drive economic growth. It <a href="http://www.rff.org/Publications/Resources/Pages/185-Getting-to-an-Efficient-Carbon-Tax.aspx">could be tricky</a> to pull off, but if done the right way, it <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/environment/climate-consensus-97-per-cent/2014/jun/13/how-revenue-neutral-carbon-tax-creates-jobs-grows-economy">would probably be popular</a> with almost everyone <em>and</em> be an efficient way of tackling climate change.</p>
<p>In the meantime, there’s <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/future_tense/2015/01/21/senate_votes_that_climate_change_is_real_but_doesn_t_agree_on_cause.html">a huge gap</a> between opinion polls and how Republican politicians vote on climate—and maybe between Republican politicians’ private beliefs and public actions. In 2013 Inglis told <em><a href="http://www.thisamericanlife.org/radio-archives/episode/495/hot-in-my-backyard?act=2">This American Life</a> </em>that he believes we could pass meaningful legislation today if his former Republican colleagues were “allowed to vote their conscience on climate change.”</p>
<p>Last week, I spoke with Inglis to get a clearer idea of why he’s so hopeful that Republicans could actually pave the way for bold action on climate.</p>
<p>“Too often the environmental left presents only the danger and not the opportunity of climate change,” Inglis told me. “Of course it’s a danger—the science is very clear. But it’s also an incredible free-enterprise opportunity, because why do we have to be dependent on these stinky fuels? Why can’t we have cleaner air? Why can’t we have distributed energy systems that light up the world with more energy, more mobility, and more freedom? Why can’t we?”</p>
<p>Inglis attributes the polarization in American climate politics to the choice of words that climate advocates often use that evoke the danger associated with climate change and the implied judgment for denial and lack of action. “The problem with that is: Denial is a pretty good coping mechanism for threats like death,” he said.</p>
<p>Instead, Inglis thinks it’s time to be optimistic about climate change. He says the most exciting aspect of working for action on climate is the potential to “light up dark places in the world” with clean energy. That, when combined with a shift in rhetoric away from “doom and gloom” of the left, may be enough to persuade Republicans to get on board.</p>
<p>Inglis repeatedly invoked the idea that a bold plan to fight climate change could recapture a sense of the American exceptionalism that Kennedy exemplified in <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ouRbkBAOGEw">his moonshot speech at Rice University in 1961</a>. In that speech, Kennedy said going to the moon was “an act of faith and vision,” but “we must be bold.” That’s exactly how Inglis feels about the need to tackle climate change: with uncertain technology, and uncertain political support, and uncertain science. “If you can put it in the context of opportunity and calling to light up the world, then you get that moonshot kind of optimism and determination,” Inglis said.</p>
<p>Inglis believes an American price on carbon could quickly motivate other large economies, like China and India. “We need the leading economy in the world to say, ‘We just priced carbon dioxide in our economy. We’re going to collect it if you’re shipping things in here. Now what are you gonna do?’ The rest of the world would then follow suit,” he said.</p>
<p>That’s why Inglis thinks a U.S. carbon tax is more important than the U.N. Paris summit this December—which has a big profile <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/future_tense/2014/12/14/lima_peru_climate_change_negotiations_one_word_undermines_the_entire_thing.html">but pretty unambitious goals</a>.</p>
<p>His “most positive scenario” for near-term action on climate: a Republican president in 2016. That would set up a top-down push for Republican-led climate legislation, as long as the right candidate is elected, of course. He offered three possible names:</p>
<p>Lindsey Graham: According to Inglis, there are “some good things Lindsey has said and is saying about climate change.” <a href="http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/politics/2015/03/lindsey_graham_for_president_the_republican_senator_from_south_carolina.html">I agree</a>.</p>
<p>Jeb Bush: “I know from personal interaction with him that he’s a careful, analytical fella,” Inglis said. Bush recently broke with the pack, <a href="http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/239210-jeb-bush-concerned-about-climate-change">saying</a> he was “concerned” about climate change.</p>
<p>Rand Paul: “[Libertarians] really believe in accountable, transparent marketplaces, and the energy marketplace is not transparent right now. They’re getting away with socializing their soot and passing to future generations the cost of climate change. That’s a market distortion,” Inglis said. With billions of dollars in subsidies to the fossil fuel industry each year, it’s not a stretch to suppose Paul would take the opportunity to reduce the size of government via a <a href="http://www.vox.com/2015/5/12/8588273/the-arguments-that-convinced-this-libertarian-to-support-a-carbon-tax">libertarian argument for climate action</a>.</p>
<p>Now, Inglis may be a few years ahead of his time here, but it’s increasingly unfathomable that the Republican Party would nominate an out-and-out climate denier. Even though climate change <a href="http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/politics/2015/02/climate_change_polls_a_majority_of_americans_care_about_climate_change_just.html">isn’t yet a top-tier issue</a>, voters are now <a href="http://environment.yale.edu/climate-communication/article/politics-and-global-warming-spring-2014/">less likely</a> to vote for a candidate who opposes action to reduce global warming. In fact, every major demographic is in favor of regulating greenhouse gases, even if it causes an increase in their energy bills—except for Republicans over 65. As younger voters gain clout, Republican opposition to climate change among the electorate is fading.</p>
<p>Together with evangelical Christian climate scientist <a href="http://www.slate.com/articles/health_and_science/climate_desk/2014/05/conservative_christians_and_climate_change_five_arguments_for_why_one_should.html">Katharine Hayhoe</a> and the retired Navy Rear Adm. <a href="http://www.slate.com/articles/technology/future_tense/2014/04/david_titley_climate_change_war_an_interview_with_the_retired_rear_admiral.html">David Titley</a>, Inglis represents the forefront of the American conservative zeitgeist on global warming. It’s interesting to note that they’re also all infectiously optimistic. Hayhoe, who’s in the midst of an indefinite speaking tour, primarily to conservative audiences, recently told me that when it comes to action on climate change among those on the right, “There is a dam effect. Once the dam is breached, there could be rapid change.”</p>
<p>After speaking with Inglis, I have to agree. It’s refreshing to hear anyone—especially a Republican—actually hopeful on climate. My wife and I had an hourslong conversation following the interview. Her main takeaway: “Why can’t more people think like him?”</p>
<p><em>This article is part of Future Tense, a collaboration among&nbsp;</em><a href="http://www.asu.edu/?feature=research"><em>Arizona State University</em></a><em>, </em><a href="http://www.newamerica.org/"><em>New America</em></a><em>, and&nbsp;</em><strong><em>Slate</em></strong><em>.&nbsp;Future Tense explores the ways emerging technologies affect society, policy, and culture. To read more, visit the&nbsp;</em><a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/future_tense.html"><em>Future Tense blog</em></a><em>&nbsp;and the&nbsp;</em><a href="http://www.slate.com/articles/technology/future_tense.html"><em>Future Tense home page</em></a><em>. You can also&nbsp;</em><a href="http://www.twitter.com/futuretensenow"><em>follow us on Twitter</em></a><em>.</em></p>Wed, 13 May 2015 15:37:51 GMThttp://www.slate.com/articles/technology/future_tense/2015/05/republican_bob_inglis_is_america_s_best_hope_for_near_term_climate_action.htmlEric Holthaus2015-05-13T15:37:51ZHe’s a Republican.TechnologyAmerica’s Best Hope for Near-Term Climate Action Is a Republican100150513007climate changerepublicanspolitics2016 campaignEric HolthausFuture Tensehttp://www.slate.com/articles/technology/future_tense/2015/05/republican_bob_inglis_is_america_s_best_hope_for_near_term_climate_action.htmlfalsefalsefalseAmerica’s best hope for near-term climate action is a Republican:America’s Best Hope for Near-Term Climate Action Is a Republican1519028539001AQ~~,AAAAAASoY90~,_gW1ZHvKG_2pKN0AJTySft1Irx-gT62t423447881900142299989110011519028539001AQ~~,AAAAAASoY90~,_gW1ZHvKG_2pKN0AJTySft1Irx-gT62t423447881900142299989110011519028539001AQ~~,AAAAAASoY90~,_gW1ZHvKG_2pKN0AJTySft1Irx-gT62t423447881900142299989110011519028539001AQ~~,AAAAAASoY90~,_gW1ZHvKG_2pKN0AJTySft1Irx-gT62t423447881900142299989110011519028539001AQ~~,AAAAAASoY90~,_gW1ZHvKG_2pKN0AJTySft1Irx-gT62t423447881900142299989110011519028539001AQ~~,AAAAAASoY90~,_gW1ZHvKG_2pKN0AJTySft1Irx-gT62t423447881900142299989110011519028539001AQ~~,AAAAAASoY90~,_gW1ZHvKG_2pKN0AJTySft1Irx-gT62t42344788190014229998911001Photo illustration by Slate. Photo by Spencer Platt/Getty Images.Bob Inglis in 2010 at Columbia University in New York City.This Weekend’s Forecast Calls for a Tropical Storm, Tornadoes, and… Snowhttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2015/05/08/weekend_forecast_tornadoes_in_oklahoma_snow_in_the_black_hills_and_a_tropical.html
<p>America’s got <a href="https://twitter.com/NWSWPC/status/596717680503193600">a plethora of atmospheric oddities</a> on offer this weekend.</p>
<p>First up, tornado watches are currently in effect for parts of Oklahoma and Texas, still dealing with the aftermath of tornadoes and record-setting rainfall <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2015/05/07/oklahoma_tornadoes_oklahoma_city_gets_hit_hard_with_record_setting_rain.html">earlier this week</a>. On Twitter, Rick Smith, a meteorologist at the National Weather Service in Norman, Oklahoma, <a href="https://twitter.com/ounwcm/status/596507954741792769">called Friday</a>’s outsized severe weather risk “one of those days” to pay attention to. His office <a href="https://twitter.com/NWSNorman/status/596668337163112448">was preparing to launch</a> a special weather balloon to gather more data about the building tornado threat.</p>
<p>Saturday’s risk might be even greater. The Storm Prediction Center, the nerve center of the National Weather Service’s severe weather forecasts, called Saturday’s threat “substantial” in its <a href="http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/">latest outlook</a>. The SPC took the rare step of upgrading Saturday’s tornado chance to ‘moderate’, the second-highest level, three days in advance.</p>
<p>An <a href="http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/threats.php?reg=SP&amp;rundt=">objective pattern-matching tool</a> from Saint Louis University <a href="https://twitter.com/EricHolthaus/status/596737353630158849">has highlighted</a> a few significant historical analogs that match Saturday’s expected weather map, including large-scale tornado outbreaks in <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/April_13%E2%80%9316,_2012_tornado_outbreak">mid-April 2012</a>, <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/May_2003_tornado_outbreak_sequence#May_8_event">early May 2003</a>, and <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/May_21%E2%80%9326,_2011_tornado_outbreak_sequence">late May 2011</a>.</p>
<p>Meanwhile, the same storm system could create near-blizzard conditions in the high plains of Wyoming and South Dakota, bringing more than two feet of late-season snow to the Black Hills.</p>
<p>And then there’s the rare Subtropical Storm Ana that’s formed just off the coast of the Carolinas. There have been <a href="https://twitter.com/mattlanza/status/596709026760663041">only 15 similar storms</a> during the month of May in the Atlantic Ocean since hurricane records began in 1842.</p>
<p>Ana shouldn’t cause much of a headache, however. It should make landfall by Sunday near the South Carolina/North Carolina border, bringing a few inches of rain and breezy winds, before quickly moving up the East Coast. Its biggest impact will probably be to limit what would have otherwise been a beautiful early summer weekend.</p>
<p>The Weather Channel’s superstar meteorologist Jim Cantore began Friday <a href="https://twitter.com/MichaelRLowry/status/596633858407280640">on the beach</a> in North Carolina, his earliest ever live shot during hurricane “season”—which doesn’t even officially begin until June 1st. But Cantore will travel to Oklahoma on Friday to chase the weekend’s possible tornadoes.</p>Fri, 08 May 2015 20:07:17 GMThttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2015/05/08/weekend_forecast_tornadoes_in_oklahoma_snow_in_the_black_hills_and_a_tropical.htmlEric Holthaus2015-05-08T20:07:17ZbriefingThis Weekend’s Forecast Calls for a Tropical Storm, Tornadoes, and… Snow227150508008tornado seasonhurricane seasonblizzardEric HolthausThe SlatestThe Slatesthttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2015/05/08/weekend_forecast_tornadoes_in_oklahoma_snow_in_the_black_hills_and_a_tropical.htmlfalsefalsefalseThis weekend's crazy forecast calls for a tropical storm, tornadoes, and... snow?This Weekend’s Forecast Calls for a Tropical Storm, Tornadoes, and… SnowPhoto by Nick Oxford/ReutersAlan Phillips (L), Nsilo Hunter Jr. (C) , and their father Nsilo Hunter Sr. work to clean up fallen tree limbs from their home that was hit by a tornado in Oklahoma City, Oklahoma May 7, 2015.Dry Heathttp://www.slate.com/articles/health_and_science/science/2015/05/arizona_water_shortages_loom_the_state_prepares_for_rationing_as_lake_mead.html
<p>Last week, Lake Mead, which sits on the border of Nevada and Arizona, set a new record low—<a href="http://www.usbr.gov/lc/region/g4000/hourly/mead-elv.html">the first time</a> since the construction of the Hoover Dam in the 1930s that the lake’s surface has dipped below 1,080 feet above sea level. The West’s drought is so bad that official plans for water rationing have now begun—with Arizona’s farmers first on the chopping block. Yes, despite the drought’s epicenter in California, it’s Arizona that will bear the brunt of the West’s epic dry spell.</p>
<p>The <a href="http://www.deanfarr.com/western_water/#/">huge</a> Lake Mead—<a href="http://www.slate.com/articles/technology/future_tense/2014/07/lake_mead_before_and_after_colorado_river_basin_losing_water_at_shocking.html">which used to be the nation’s largest</a> reservoir—serves as the main water storage facility on the Colorado River. Amid <a href="http://www.pnas.org/content/107/50/21283.full">one of the worst droughts in millennia</a>, record lows at Lake Mead are becoming an annual event—<a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/future_tense/2014/06/05/lake_mead_which_supplies_most_of_las_vegas_water_is_at_record_low_levels.html">last year’s low</a> was 7 feet higher than this year’s expected June nadir, 1,073 feet.</p>
<p>If, come Jan. 1, Lake Mead’s level is below 1,075 feet, the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation, which manages the river, will declare an official shortage for the first time ever—setting into motion a series of <a href="http://www.cap-az.com/documents/shortage/Shortage-Impacts-to-Arizona.pdf">already agreed-upon mandatory cuts</a> in water outlays, primarily to Arizona. (Nevada and Mexico will also receive smaller cuts.) The <a href="http://www.cap-az.com/documents/shortage/USBR-CR-Operations-Hydrology-Update.pdf">latest forecasts</a> give a <a href="http://tucson.com/news/science/environment/risks-of-cap-shortages-next-year-hit/article_7feb966b-6a17-5bc7-b2c1-057b9b70c00a.html">33 percent chance</a> of this happening. There’s a greater than 75 percent chance of the same scenario on Jan. 1, 2017. Barring a sudden unexpected end to the drought, official shortage conditions are likely for the indefinite future.</p>
<p>Why Arizona? <a href="http://www.circleofblue.org/waternews/2013/world/fortune-telling-colorado-river-teeters-toward-first-ever-shortage-declaration/">In exchange for agreeing</a> to be the first in line for rationing when a shortage occurs, Arizona was permitted in the 1960s to build <a href="http://www.slate.com/articles/technology/future_tense/2014/03/drought_crisis_arizona_may_be_california_s_future.html">the Central Arizona Project</a>, which diverts Colorado River water 336 miles over 3,000 feet of mountain ranges all the way to Tucson. It’s the longest and costliest aqueduct in American history, and Arizona couldn’t exist <a href="http://www.slate.com/articles/technology/future_tense/2014/03/tucson_tries_to_reinvent_itself_in_the_face_of_a_drought.html">in its modern state</a> without it. Now that a shortage is imminent, another fundamental change in the status quo is on the way. <a href="http://www.slate.com/articles/technology/future_tense/2014/10/california_central_valley_agriculture_drought_and_climate_change_photos.html">As in California</a>, the current drought may take a considerable and lasting toll on Arizona, <a href="http://tucson.com/business/local/arizona-farmers-prepare-for-cap-water-shortage/article_a9037ae1-1620-54bc-8090-1d22bcf958b9.html">especially for the state’s farmers</a>.</p>
<p>“A call on the river will be significant,” Joe Sigg, director of government relations for Arizona Farm Bureau, <a href="http://tucson.com/business/local/arizona-farmers-prepare-for-cap-water-shortage/article_a9037ae1-1620-54bc-8090-1d22bcf958b9.html">told the <em>Arizona Daily Star</em></a>. “It will be a complete change in a farmer’s business model.” A “call” refers to the mandatory cutbacks in water deliveries for certain low-priority users of the Colorado. Arizona law prioritizes cities, industry, and tribal interests above agriculture, so farmers will see the biggest cuts. And those who are lucky enough to keep their water will pay more for it.</p>
<p>According to Robert Glennon, a water policy expert at the University of Arizona, the current situation was inevitable. “It’s really no surprise that this day was coming, for the simple reason that the Colorado River is overallocated,” Glennon told me over the phone last week. Glennon explained that the original Colorado River compact of 1922, which governs how seven states and Mexico use the river, was negotiated during “the wettest 10-year period in the last 1,000 years.” That law portioned out about 25 percent more water than regularly flows, so even in “normal” years, big reservoirs like Lake Mead are in a long-term decline. “We’ve been saved from the disaster because Arizona and these other states were not using all their water,” Glennon said.</p>
<p>They are now. Since around 2000, Arizona has been withdrawing its full allotment from the Colorado River, and it’s impossible to overstate how important the Colorado has become to the state. About 40 percent of Arizona’s water comes from the Colorado, and state officials partially attribute a nearly 20-fold increase in the state’s economy over the last 50 years to increased access to the river.</p>
<p>On April 22, Arizona <a href="http://www.cap-az.com/index.php/colorado-river-shortage-preparedness-workshop">held a public meeting</a> to prepare for an eventual shortage declaration, which could come as soon as this August. The latest rules that govern a shortage, <a href="http://www.usbr.gov/lc/region/programs/strategies/RecordofDecision.pdf">established in 2007</a> by an agreement among the states, say that Arizona will have to contend with a 20 percent cut in water in 2016 should Lake Mead fall below 1,075 feet, which will decrease the amount available to central Arizona’s farmers by about half. At 1,050 feet, central Arizona’s farmers will take a three-quarters cut in water. At 1,025 feet, agriculture would have to make due largely without water from the Colorado River. That would probably require at least a temporary end to large-scale farming in central Arizona. Below 1,025 feet, the only thing Colorado River states have agreed to so far is <a href="http://www.voiceofsandiego.org/topics/news/the-colorado-rivers-nonexistent-emergency-plan-3/">a further round of negotiations</a>. In that emergency scenario, no one really knows what might happen.</p>
<p>Beyond Arizona, the implications of the <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/future_tense/2015/03/20/california_megadrought_it_s_already_begun.html">ongoing megadrought</a> in the West are profound. The Colorado River currently <a href="http://www.americanrivers.org/initiative/water-supply/projects/colorado-river-basin-protecting-the-flows/">supplies water</a> to more than 40 million people from Denver to Los Angeles (as well as Las Vegas, Phoenix, Tucson, San Diego, Salt Lake City, Albuquerque, and Santa Fe—none of which lie directly on the river). According to <a href="http://www.nature.org/ourinitiatives/regions/northamerica/areas/coloradoriver/economic-importance-of-the-colorado-river.xml">one recent study</a>, 16 million jobs and $1.4 trillion in annual economic activity across the West depend on the Colorado. As the river dries up, farmers and cities have turned to pumping groundwater. In just the last 10 years, the Colorado Basin has lost 15.6 cubic miles of subsurface freshwater, <a href="http://www.slate.com/articles/technology/future_tense/2014/07/lake_mead_before_and_after_colorado_river_basin_losing_water_at_shocking.html">an amount researchers called “shocking.”</a> Once an official shortage is declared, Arizona farmers will increase their rate of pumping even further, to blunt the effect of an anticipated sharp cutback.</p>
<p>According to Dan Bunk of the Bureau of Reclamation’s Colorado River operations office, the current projections, factoring in both the ongoing drought and the systemic overallocation, are “almost guaranteeing a shortage in 2017.” Engineers are already <a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/national/at-hoover-dam-the-drought-is-stealing-clean-energy-along-with-fresh-water/2015/04/26/8ce2740a-e93d-11e4-9767-6276fc9b0ada_story.html">installing new hydropower electricity-generating equipment</a> at Lake Mead to prepare for the contingency of the lake reaching so-called “dead pool” levels—below which the Colorado River will no longer be able to spin Hoover’s power-generating turbines. <a href="http://www.popsci.com/article/science/last-straw-how-fortunes-las-vegas-will-rise-or-fall-lake-mead">A new intake</a> from Lake Mead to Las Vegas will come online later this year, allowing the city to essentially suck the lake dry, all the way down to the last drop.</p>
<p>So is there anything that can be done? As is the case in California, the fate of the Colorado River is largely in the hands of agriculture. Nearly 80 percent of the river’s annual flow is diverted for agricultural use. Since urban water use is becoming more efficient at a quicker pace than agricultural water use, the only way to make the numbers work in an increasingly climate-constrained future is to switch to less water-intensive crops or decrease the total acreage devoted to agriculture. And that’s not happening fast enough.</p>
<p>To solve that problem, Glennon has proposed <a href="http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2015/03/finding-the-right-price-for-water/388246/">a voluntary shift of water rights</a>. In practice, this would mean that cities, which currently use water in more efficient ways, would pay farmers, who use&nbsp;water in less efficient ways, for&nbsp;the rights to&nbsp;their water. Farmers currently engaged in the most water-intensive crops (like cotton, rice, alfalfa, and almonds) would have a financial incentive to divert their water to people and businesses willing to pay more for it in times of shortage—and a financial incentive to grow less alfalfa.“We’re not talking about the elimination of agriculture,” Glennon said. Since agriculture uses so much water, “a very small single-digit reduction in ag consumption translates into a huge percentage increase of water available for municipal and industrial consumption.” In dry years, Glennon says, urban areas and industry would likely pay farmers even more than they’d make growing their crops for the right to use their water. The increased cost of water for cities as a result of his plan is “a rounding error,” Glennon says. Problem is that it’s currently common for state laws and byzantine rules governing water rights in Western states to restrict such transfers, as is the case in Arizona.</p>
<p>Among the other options officially on the table in the state of Arizona: desalination and cloud seeding. But, according to Glennon, such proposals are “not responsible stewardship of the state water agency.” (The desalination idea would require building a desalination plant in Mexico and constructing another Central Arizona Project–like aqueduct system to transport it northward across the border.) Glennon thinks the answer is much easier. “We need to stop growing alfalfa in the deserts in the summertime.”</p>
<p>And what if nothing changes? Well, then, the water supply certainly will. “Pretty dramatic cutbacks could happen relatively quickly,” Glennon said. “That will bring a new urgency to doing a lot of things.”</p>
<p><strong><em><a href="http://www.slate.com/topics/t/thirsty_west.html">See more of Slate’s coverage of the West’s drought.</a></em></strong></p>
<p><em><strong>*Correction, May 8, 2015: </strong>Due to a photo provider error, this article’s photo caption misstated the surface elevation of Lake Powell and its forecased record-breaking low in September. This information has been removed.</em></p>Fri, 08 May 2015 19:11:00 GMThttp://www.slate.com/articles/health_and_science/science/2015/05/arizona_water_shortages_loom_the_state_prepares_for_rationing_as_lake_mead.htmlEric Holthaus2015-05-08T19:11:00ZAs Lake Mead hits record lows and water shortages loom, Arizona prepares for the worst.Health and ScienceYes, the Drought Is Bad in California. It’s Going to Be Much, Much Worse in Arizona.100150508021climate changedroughtarizonathirsty westEric HolthausSciencehttp://www.slate.com/articles/health_and_science/science/2015/05/arizona_water_shortages_loom_the_state_prepares_for_rationing_as_lake_mead.htmlfalsefalsefalseYes, the drought is bad in California. It’s going to be much, much worse in Arizona.Yes, the Drought Is Bad in California. It’s Going to Be Much, Much Worse in Arizona.1519028539001AQ~~,AAAAAASoY90~,_gW1ZHvKG_2pKN0AJTySft1Irx-gT62t422626204900141899003800011519028539001AQ~~,AAAAAASoY90~,_gW1ZHvKG_2pKN0AJTySft1Irx-gT62t422626204900141899003800011519028539001AQ~~,AAAAAASoY90~,_gW1ZHvKG_2pKN0AJTySft1Irx-gT62t422626204900141899003800011519028539001AQ~~,AAAAAASoY90~,_gW1ZHvKG_2pKN0AJTySft1Irx-gT62t422626204900141899003800011519028539001AQ~~,AAAAAASoY90~,_gW1ZHvKG_2pKN0AJTySft1Irx-gT62t422626204900141899003800011519028539001AQ~~,AAAAAASoY90~,_gW1ZHvKG_2pKN0AJTySft1Irx-gT62t422626204900141899003800011519028539001AQ~~,AAAAAASoY90~,_gW1ZHvKG_2pKN0AJTySft1Irx-gT62t42262620490014189900380001Photo by Justin Sullivan/Getty ImagesLake Powell, seen from an airplane on March 30, 2015, in Page, Arizona. Lake Powell and Lake Mead are two of the Colorado River Basin’s biggest reservoirs. Lake Powell is currently at 45 percent of capacity.*Woman Drowns in an Oklahoma Tornado Shelter Amid Record-Setting Stormshttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2015/05/07/oklahoma_tornadoes_oklahoma_city_gets_hit_hard_with_record_setting_rain.html
<p>Wednesday was a weird weather day in the nation’s heartland. About 50 tornadoes <a href="http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/150506_rpts.html">were reported</a> from Texas to Nebraska, with at least two of them crossing through the Oklahoma City area, bookending a period of extremely heavy rainfall and making for a <a href="https://twitter.com/KOCOdamonlane/status/596165803856121857">stressful few hours</a> for local meteorologists.</p>
<p>There was also a strange scare in Tuttle, Oklahoma, after a tiger sanctuary <a href="http://newsok.com/wild-animals-loose-from-tiger-safari-zoo-now-accounted-for/article/5416842">suffered a direct hit</a> from one of the tornadoes—briefly <a href="https://twitter.com/NEWS9/status/596143349163163649">freeing multiple animals</a>. In a separate incident, a <a href="https://twitter.com/DanielShawAU/status/596229174936768512">cow was rescued</a> from a mud whirlpool near Haskell, Texas.</p>
<p>The National Weather Service has <a href="https://twitter.com/NWSNorman/status/596307161384255490">dispatched damage survey teams</a> to judge the strength of the tornadoes. But in a place known for its deadly tornadoes, the bigger story—by far—was the rain.</p>
<p><a href="https://twitter.com/ounwcm/status/596134790018957312">For the first time</a> ever, the National Weather Service issued a “flash flood emergency” for Oklahoma City as the city racked up more than 7 inches of rain—nearly tripling the <a href="https://twitter.com/BuzzFeedStorm/status/596180426793713664">previous record</a> for the date. At one point, more than 3 inches of rain fell <a href="https://twitter.com/NWSNorman/status/596117308398968832">in a single hour</a>.&nbsp;</p>
<p>According to <a href="http://newsok.com/woman-drowned-in-southeast-oklahoma-city-tornado-shelter/article/5416973">local reports</a>, a woman drowned in a tornado shelter at her southeast Oklahoma City home Wednesday night, a tragic and heartbreaking consequence of the record-breaking rainfall. This is the first time I’ve ever heard of such a death in a tornado shelter—though <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/jun/05/oklahoma-tornado-flooding-deaths">several children also drowned</a> at a nearby elementary school in 2013 while seeking shelter from a large tornado.</p>
<p>Local police also dispatched dive teams to rescue stranded motorists and responded to a report of <a href="http://newsok.com/article/5416957">a man trapped in a floating mobile home</a>. Roads were <a href="https://twitter.com/Lawrence_SVRHD/status/596155891021258753">washed away</a>. There were also accounts of tornado shelters erupting out of the ground due to the heavy rain:</p>
<p>To be clear, despite these extremely rare incidents, moving to a tornado shelter is still <a href="https://www.emsaonline.com/mediacenter/articles/00000187.html">your safest option</a> when there is a tornado warning for your area. Keep in mind that Oklahoma City has never had as much rain as quickly as it did Wednesday night. But the recent drowning deaths could create an <a href="http://newsok.com/oklahoma-tornadoes-aboveground-shelters-stood-up-in-face-of-ef5-moore-tornado/article/3840636">increase in demand</a> for aboveground safe rooms, which the National Weather Service says <a href="http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/?n=safety-severe-homesafety">are just as safe</a> as below-ground tornado shelters.</p>
<p>One of the clearest consequences of climate change is an <a href="http://nca2014.globalchange.gov/report/our-changing-climate/heavy-downpours-increasing">increase in rainfall intensity</a> due to a quickening of the hydrologic cycle, the process by which water evaporates and turns into rain and snow. Wednesday’s rainfall record in Oklahoma joins other notable flash flooding incidents in recent years in <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/bad_astronomy/2013/09/12/boulder_floods_footage_of_the_big_flooding_in_boulder_colorado.html">Boulder, Colorado</a>, <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/future_tense/2014/08/13/tropical_conveyor_belt_brings_floods_to_detroit_baltimore_long_island.html">Long Island, New York</a>, and <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/future_tense/2014/04/30/record_rains_and_extreme_weather_florida_s_floods_are_linked_to_climate.html">Pensacola, Florida</a>, among <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/future_tense/2014/08/13/tropical_conveyor_belt_brings_floods_to_detroit_baltimore_long_island.html">many others</a>.</p>
<p>What is shaping up to be the biggest tornado outbreak so far of 2015 will continue over the next few days. The Storm Prediction Center has already issued a “moderate risk” of severe weather in the same area for Saturday, the second-highest alert level on its new five-point scale.</p>Thu, 07 May 2015 17:24:00 GMThttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2015/05/07/oklahoma_tornadoes_oklahoma_city_gets_hit_hard_with_record_setting_rain.htmlEric Holthaus2015-05-07T17:24:00ZbriefingYes, a Women Drowned in an Oklahoma Tornado Shelter. But Shelters Are Still Your Safest Option.227150507007tornadoesoklahomafloodingEric HolthausThe SlatestThe Slatesthttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2015/05/07/oklahoma_tornadoes_oklahoma_city_gets_hit_hard_with_record_setting_rain.htmlfalsefalsefalseTigers, tornadoes, and flooding. Wednesday was a weird weather day in Oklahoma:Yes, a Women Drowned in an Oklahoma Tornado Shelter. But Shelters Are Still Your Safest Option.Photo by Nick Oxford/Reuters,Fotoware/ColorFactorySharon Odom looks over what is left of her RV at the Roadrunner RV Park in Oklahoma City, Oklahoma, on May 7, 2015.Scientists “See” Thunder for the First Time. Here’s What It Looks Like.http://www.slate.com/blogs/future_tense/2015/05/06/scientists_make_first_ever_acoustic_images_of_thunder_at_a_florida_military.html
<p>While the process that generates lightning <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CA5eW8dnPF4">is fairly well-understood</a>, it’s still not totally clear what parts of the lightning bolt are responsible for thunder. <a href="http://www.climatecentral.org/news/lightning-strikes-will-increase-with-warming-18323">A recent study</a> predicted that lightning strikes could increase by up to 50 percent in the United States by the end of the century as <a href="http://www.ucsusa.org/global_warming/science_and_impacts/impacts/global-warming-rain-snow-tornadoes.html#.VUqLgtNViko">rainstorms become more intense</a> due to global warming. So lightning is a hot scientific topic right now. (Pardon the pun.)</p>
<p>We do know <em>what</em> thunder is: It’s the sound created by the shock wave that’s quickly generated by lightning’s intense heat. The air very near the lightning strike quickly expands, and the intensity of the resulting boom obviously changes based on how far away you are from it. At extremely close range, the acoustic energy from thunder itself <a href="http://www.lightningsafety.com/nlsi_info/thunder2.html">is strong enough</a> to cause injury and property damage.</p>
<p>Last summer, to study the acoustic energy that thunder creates, researchers strapped a Kevlar-coated copper wire to a rocket and launched it during the middle of a thunderstorm on a military base near Gainesville, Florida, hoping to tap into the cloud’s electricity source. They didn’t have to wait long:</p>
<p>“At first I thought the experiment didn't work,” said Maher Dayeh, the study’s lead author, in a <a href="http://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2015-05/sri-srt050415.php">press statement</a>. “The initial constructed images looked like a colorful piece of modern art that you could hang over your fireplace. But you couldn’t see the detailed sound signature of lightning in the acoustic data.”</p>
<p>To image the thunder, Dayeh strategically placed 15 highly sensitive microphones about 300 feet away from the rocket’s launch pad. Data from the array were able to triangulate the source of the most intense sound and its associated frequencies. Turns out, the loudest part of thunder actually originates very close to the Earth’s surface, not in the cloud. “That’s where the lightning channel is attaching into the ground,” <a href="http://www.nature.com/news/images-expose-thunder-in-exquisite-detail-1.17490">Dayeh said</a>.</p>
<p>The greenish glow in the long-exposure photograph at the top of this post is due to the initial artificial strike along the copper wire. The purple are the much more brilliant return strokes. The return strokes—the most visible part of lightning to the naked eye—<a href="http://hyperphysics.phy-astr.gsu.edu/hbase/electric/ligseq.html">actually travel from the ground upward</a>, but our eyes are too slow to notice. The associated <a href="http://www.eurekalert.org/multimedia/pub/91357.php?from=295432">images of the thunder</a> with this lightning strike show nine return strokes.</p>
<p>These results <a href="https://agu.confex.com/agu/ja2015/meetingapp.cgi#Paper/36014">were presented</a> Wednesday at a joint meeting of American and Canadian geophysical societies in Montreal. Dayeh hopes his team’s work will be compared with future similar studies of natural, more jagged lightning.</p>Wed, 06 May 2015 22:54:00 GMThttp://www.slate.com/blogs/future_tense/2015/05/06/scientists_make_first_ever_acoustic_images_of_thunder_at_a_florida_military.htmlEric Holthaus2015-05-06T22:54:00ZTechnologyScientists “See” Thunder for the First Time. Here’s What It Looks Like.203150506005lightningEric HolthausFuture TenseFuture Tensehttp://www.slate.com/blogs/future_tense/2015/05/06/scientists_make_first_ever_acoustic_images_of_thunder_at_a_florida_military.htmlfalsefalsefalseScientists "see" thunder for the first time by shooting a rocket into a thunderstorm:Scientists “See” Thunder for the First Time. Here’s What It Looks Like.UF/FIT/SRIThis artificial lightning strike in Florida in 2014 helped create the first-ever “images” of thunder.&nbsp;Climate Change Joins Terrorism, the Economy as a Top Diplomatic Issuehttp://www.slate.com/blogs/future_tense/2015/04/30/secretary_of_state_john_kerry_highlights_climate_change_as_a_top_diplomatic.html
<p>For the first time, climate change has received full treatment in an important State Department planning document, joining terrorism, democracy, and the global economy among the nation’s top diplomatic priorities. It’s the clearest sign yet that the warming climate has the full attention of the Obama administration.</p>
<p>Earlier this week, Secretary of State John Kerry released <a href="http://www.state.gov/s/dmr/qddr/">the Quadrennial Diplomacy and Development Review</a>, the once-every-four-years strategic planning document for America’s diplomatic corps. The QDDR is a wonky initiative begun by Hillary Clinton when she was Secretary of State and modeled off <a href="http://www.salon.com/2014/03/10/pentagon_warns_that_climate_change_could_enable_terrorism/">a similar process</a> that the Defense Department uses. At that time, her team prioritized energy diplomacy and frequently mentioned climate change in a list of complex challenges, but this week’s document ups the ante significantly.</p>
<p>In the latest QDDR, <a href="http://www.state.gov/s/dmr/qddr/240903.htm">climate change is used as a centerpiece</a> of a 21<sup>st</sup>-century rethink of the entirety of American foreign policy. In <a href="http://thehill.com/opinion/op-ed/240327-state-department-lays-out-its-strategy">an op-ed</a> for the <em>Hill </em>coinciding with the document’s launch, Kerry referred to the administration’s climate change strategy as “a model for ‘next generation’ diplomacy.” That could mean a subtle shift toward de-emphasizing <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/future_tense/2015/02/04/u_n_paris_climate_talks_even_the_architects_of_the_agreement_are_pessimistic.html">tough-to-negotiate global treaties</a>, which in the climate context have <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/future_tense/2014/12/14/lima_peru_climate_change_negotiations_one_word_undermines_the_entire_thing.html">squandered decades</a> of precious time. Instead, Kerry said the U.S. would focus efforts on “Congress, mayors, CEOs, faith leaders, and civil society to address this existential issue.” Recent bilateral agreements <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/future_tense/2014/11/12/u_s_china_deal_on_emissions_reductions_won_t_stop_climate_change_but_it.html">with China</a> and <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2015/04/24/obama_s_latest_moves_on_climate_maybe_his_strategy_is_working.html">India</a> on climate are good examples of this new “think globally, act locally” strategy.</p>
<p>This is a very smart move from Kerry, who’s shown repeatedly that he understands how important climate change is, not only <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2014/sep/22/us-climate-change-john-kerry-un">to the United States and its interests</a>, but also <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2013/12/31/climate_change_vastly_worse_than_previously_thought.html">to humanity as a whole</a>. If the world is going to halt the <a href="http://www.climatecentral.org/news/two-decades-until-carbon-budget-is-eaten-through-18051">business-as-usual slow boil</a> toward climate apocalypse, it’ll have to do it at the city level, where <a href="http://www.un.org/en/development/desa/news/population/world-urbanization-prospects-2014.html">most of the world’s population lives</a>. To help with this effort, Kerry instructed his cadre of diplomats to recruit new staff with climate as a “core competency.”</p>
<p>It’s easy enough for the State Department to put into words a greater emphasis on global warming, which is already destabilizing fragile nation-states like <a href="http://www.slate.com/articles/technology/future_tense/2014/06/isis_water_scarcity_is_climate_change_destabilizing_iraq.html">Iraq</a> and <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/future_tense/2015/03/02/study_climate_change_helped_spark_syrian_civil_war.html">Syria</a>. It’s another matter entirely to act like it. Though America’s steady efforts on climate change are <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2015/04/24/obama_s_latest_moves_on_climate_maybe_his_strategy_is_working.html">gradually starting to pay off</a>, we’re still <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2015/03/31/u_s_climate_targets_in_advance_of_paris_agreement_the_obama_administration.html">far from leading the world</a>.</p>
<p>To get a sense as to what a full-fledged American diplomatic strategy on climate might (someday) look like, I spoke with Frank Femia, founding director of the Center for Climate and Security, who also co-wrote <a href="http://climateandsecurity.org/2015/04/28/climate-security-prominent-in-the-quadrennial-diplomacy-and-development-review/">a longer response</a> to the new document on his center’s website. Femia said the new QDDR “clearly and unambiguously demonstrates what the secretary’s priorities are.”</p>
<p>To illustrate this point, Femia pointed to a single word in the 87-page document: <em>all</em>. In the chapter on climate change, the QDDR says the State Department will begin to “integrate climate change into all of our diplomacy and development efforts.” Femia thinks that’s a sign that the days of thinking of climate as a separate, largely environmental issue are over.</p>
<p>Take Pakistan, for example. Femia believes it’s an example of a place where climate change is complicating an already messy situation:</p>
<p>Pakistan is a country that’s fed primarily by glacial waters, as are many of the other countries in that region. It’s already a very volatile place for a number of reasons: You have international terrorist organizations that operate out of Pakistan, you have nuclear materials that have proliferated throughout Pakistan, and on top of that, you have significant climate and environmental stress in the region.</p>
<p>What’s more, “climate change might create additional security risks in places we might not be paying enough attention to today,” Femia said. “This is not an issue you deal with with low-level ministers.”</p>
<p>Femia pointed out that this is a “planning” document, not an official policy document. Still, “I think it’s a door-opener,” he said.</p>
<p>Given that the QDDR process was started by Hillary Clinton, Femia speculated that a Hillary administration would likely continue to prioritize climate change at the highest level. Indeed, Clinton tweeted a congratulatory note to Kerry earlier this week:</p>Thu, 30 Apr 2015 20:51:20 GMThttp://www.slate.com/blogs/future_tense/2015/04/30/secretary_of_state_john_kerry_highlights_climate_change_as_a_top_diplomatic.htmlEric Holthaus2015-04-30T20:51:20ZTechnologyClimate Change Joins Terrorism, the Economy as a Top Diplomatic Issue203150430005state departmentclimate changeglobal warmingjohn kerryhillary clintonEric HolthausFuture TenseFuture Tensehttp://www.slate.com/blogs/future_tense/2015/04/30/secretary_of_state_john_kerry_highlights_climate_change_as_a_top_diplomatic.htmlfalsefalsefalseU.S. boosts climate change up the diplomatic priority list:Climate Change Joins Terrorism, the Economy as a Top Diplomatic IssuePhoto by SAM PANTHAKY/AFP/GettyImagesErratic weather is increasingly a core diplomatic issue for the United States as global warming intensifies. Here, an Indian man draws water from a well near the India-Pakistan border on November 13, 2010.Poor Countries Like Nepal Are Falling Behind in Preventing Disastershttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2015/04/26/nepal_earthquake_2015_poor_countries_like_haiti_are_underprepared_and_underfunded.html
<p>The disaster in Nepal is heartbreakingly close to the worst-case scenario for any region in the world vulnerable to earthquakes—a “<a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2015/04/25/nepal_earthquake_was_nightmare_waiting_to_happen.html">nightmare waiting to happen</a>,” <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2015/04/25/nepal_earthquake_was_nightmare_waiting_to_happen.html">in the words of one seismologist</a>. As of Sunday afternoon, <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2015/04/26/aftershocks_rattle_nepal_as_death_toll_passes_2_200_and_aid_begins_to_arrive.html">more than 2,500 people had died</a> across the country—placing the earthquake among the <a href="http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/world/world_deaths.php">two-dozen or so deadliest quakes worldwide</a> over the past 40 years. The tragedy is only compounded when we consider how badly prepared the nation was for such an event, a fact that is sadly still common among developing nations in earthquake zones. In a world that’s getting better at preventing disasters, Nepal and other poor countries continue to bear the brunt of tragedy.</p>
<p>As <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2015/04/26/aftershocks_rattle_nepal_as_death_toll_passes_2_200_and_aid_begins_to_arrive.html">aid begins to arrive</a>, so are estimates of the quake’s ultimate impact on Nepal. The <a href="http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/pager/events/us/20002926/index.html">U.S. Geological Survey’s PAGER model</a> gives a 52 percent chance of more than 10,000 deaths and also projects that the total economic losses “may exceed the GDP of Nepal.” The country’s economy is strongly tourism-dependent, and the sheer destruction to the country’s infrastructure <a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-04-26/nepal-s-slowing-economy-set-for-freefall-without-world-s-help">may depress the economy for years</a>.</p>
<p>What’s more, it was not far from the strongest earthquake scientists believe is possible in the Himalaya region, and it hit at about the worst time in the calendar year—just before the start of monsoon season. According to the <a href="http://un.org.np/sites/default/files/Nepal_Earthquake_Situation_Report_03_26_April_2015.pdf">United Nations, </a>local hospitals are overloaded and “post-earthquake diseases are a concern,” especially as thousands of survivors will now be exposed to the elements. <em>Io9</em> reports that in many ways this earthquake is fated to be <a href="http://space.io9.com/the-m7-9-earthquake-in-nepal-is-going-to-be-really-rea-1700132994">a lingering disaster</a>, and landslides will likely be more common this year as the ground slowly settles.</p>
<p>The tragic situation in Nepal is one that developing nations are especially vulnerable to. As a whole, the world is getting much better at preventing large earthquakes from causing deaths in great numbers, but poorer countries like Nepal are getting left behind. The nonprofit GeoHazards International says that over the past few decades, rich countries <a href="http://geohaz.org/issue/vulnerable-communities">have reduced mortality from earthquakes at a rate 10 times faster</a> than poor countries.</p>
<p>Looking at just the biggest earthquakes, rich and middle-income countries (those with a per capita GDP above $10,000 USD) have reduced their risk of mass casualties by nearly fourfold since 2001, when compared with the period from 1976 to 2000. While the poorest countries have also improved, they’ve cut down their risk by less than 40 percent, a much slower rate.</p>
<p>According to my analysis of U.S. Geological Survey data, since 1976 there have been <a href="http://on.doi.gov/1ForGEJ">99 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or greater that caused significant shaking</a> on land (the others either happened at sea or were too deep underground). Twenty-six of them caused <a href="http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/world/world_deaths.php">more than 1,000 deaths</a>, including Saturday’s quake in Nepal. But only five of these disasters occurred in rich or middle-income countries—including the 2011 9.0-magnitude earthquake and tsunami centered in Sendai, Japan. In fact, just Japan, the U.S., and Chile—all relatively wealthy nations—have combined for nearly a quarter of those 99 earthquakes, with Sendai’s being the only major tragedy.</p>
<p>The track record in poor countries is a different story. Over one-third of the earthquakes to cause severe shaking over the last four decades (21 of 57) have resulted in mass casualties. The disparity between rich and poor has been worse since 2001: While just 19 percent of violent earthquakes worldwide have resulted in more than 1,000 deaths, nearly 90 percent of them have been in poor countries.</p>
<p>So what makes <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2015/04/26/science/ancient-collision-made-nepal-earthquake-inevitable-epochs-later.html">places like Nepal and Haiti</a> so vulnerable to earthquakes? <a href="https://www.ifrc.org/en/what-we-do/disaster-management/about-disasters/what-is-a-disaster/what-is-vulnerability/">Poverty is a big factor</a>, but so is politics. Preparedness funding routinely returns <a href="http://www.citylab.com/politics/2013/10/plain-math-disaster-preparedness-every-dollar-we-spent-saved-five-dollars-future-losses/7160/">five dollars for every dollar spent</a>. But governments with low resources find it difficult to justify extra spending to mitigate even <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2015/04/26/science/ancient-collision-made-nepal-earthquake-inevitable-epochs-later.html">likely disasters</a>. Nepal, one of the world’s poorest countries, <a href="http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/EN.CLC.DRSK.XQ?order=wbapi_data_value_2011+wbapi_data_value+wbapi_data_value-first&amp;sort=desc">ranks near the bottom</a> in a list of countries working to reduce their risk. Even in the United States, spending on disaster relief routinely outstrips investment in disaster preparedness <a href="http://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2012/12/03/disaster-economics">by at least a factor of 10</a>.</p>
<p>Just last month, representatives from world governments <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/03/18/us-disaster-risk-agreement-iduskbn0me27720150318">agreed to a 15-year plan</a> to reduce global disaster risk, especially in the poorest countries. The previous agreement—<a href="http://www.wcdrr.org/celebrating">the first-ever global agreement on disaster reduction</a>—was reached in 2005, in the aftermath of the South Asian tsunami. However, disaster experts warned that the new goals come without much additional funding from rich countries (only Japan committed significant money). And without more money devoted to preparedness, the world will be severely limited in its ability to prevent tragedies like Nepal’s.</p>
<p></p>
<p><em>Read more about the Nepal earthquake in <strong>Slate:</strong></em></p>
<p></p>
<ul>
<li><em><a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2015/04/25/nepal_earthquake_was_nightmare_waiting_to_happen.html">Experts Knew Nepal Earthquake Was Coming: “A Nightmare Waiting to Happen”</a></em></li>
<li><em><a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/future_tense/2015/04/25/after_nepal_earthquake_facebook_and_google_offer_safety_check_in_features.html">After Nepal Earthquake, Facebook and Google Offer Safety Check-In Features</a></em></li>
</ul>Sun, 26 Apr 2015 23:53:36 GMThttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2015/04/26/nepal_earthquake_2015_poor_countries_like_haiti_are_underprepared_and_underfunded.htmlEric Holthaus2015-04-26T23:53:36ZbriefingPoor Countries Like Nepal Are Falling Behind in Preventing Disasters227150426005nepal earthquakeEric HolthausThe SlatestThe Slatesthttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2015/04/26/nepal_earthquake_2015_poor_countries_like_haiti_are_underprepared_and_underfunded.htmlfalsefalsefalsePoor countries like Nepal are falling behind in disaster prevention:Poor Countries Like Nepal Are Falling Behind in Preventing DisastersPhoto by Omar Havana/Getty ImagesEmergency workers and bystanders search for survivors under a collapsed temple in Basantapur Durbar Square in Kathmandu, Nepal, April 25.Obama’s Piecemeal Climate Policy Is Gradually Paying Offhttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2015/04/24/obama_s_latest_moves_on_climate_maybe_his_strategy_is_working.html
<p>While Obama’s <a href="http://www.slate.com/articles/health_and_science/science/2015/04/obama_s_earth_day_speech_the_everglades_is_losing_to_climate_change.html">Earth Day speech in the Everglades</a> turned out to be a big nothingburger—except if you’re the parent of a fourth-grader who’ll now <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/blog/2015/02/19/let-s-get-every-kid-park">receive a free annual National Park pass</a>—there are renewed signs this week that his nickel-and-dime approach to fighting climate change is finally starting to pay off.</p>
<p>I’ve been <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2015/03/31/u_s_climate_targets_in_advance_of_paris_agreement_the_obama_administration.html">critical of the president’s climate policy</a> in the past for lacking ambition. Even the <a href="http://www.slate.com/articles/health_and_science/science/2014/11/obama_s_u_s_china_climate_agreement_carbon_budget_and_exponential_curves.single.html">much-celebrated deal with China</a> last year only puts our planned domestic carbon cutting <a href="http://climateactiontracker.org/countries/usa/2015.html">at about the middle of the pack</a>, globally. We need to do much more than that to “lead the world,” as Obama <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2DF3yrq-EeQ">said on Wednesday</a>. The proof is in the numbers: America’s greenhouse gas emissions have now risen <a href="http://www.vox.com/2015/4/20/8456467/US-carbon-emissions-rise">two years in a row</a>, while global emissions last year <a href="http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2015/03/13/3633362/iea-co2-emissions-decouple-growth/">stayed flat</a>.</p>
<p>But the fact that current U.S. climate policies probably <a href="http://climateactiontracker.org/countries/usa/2015.html">don’t yet match with our stated goal</a> of reducing emissions by 26-28 percent in the next 10 years is partially offset by Obama’s growing climate influence abroad. We’re not yet leading the world on fighting climate change, but at least we’re not being as willfully obstinate as we had been during past administrations.</p>
<p>On Wednesday, as the president spoke in the Florida swamp, diplomats were gathering in Bangkok to discuss <a href="http://switchboard.nrdc.org/blogs/ddoniger/deal_on_hfc_super-pollutants_i.html">a possible global deal</a> to phase out hydroflorocarbons (HFCs), one of the fastest growing contributors to climate change. This deal wouldn’t be possible without help from the Obama administration.</p>
<p>HFCs, which are used primarily as refrigerants in air conditioning, were phased in as a replacement for CFCs in the 1980s and 1990s in an attempt to stop the growth of the hole in the ozone layer. Since then, they’ve become a big problem in and of themselves—even though viable alternatives <a href="http://ec.europa.eu/clima/policies/f-gas/alternatives/index_en.htm">are readily available</a>.</p>
<p>A pound of HFCs has up to <a href="http://epa.gov/climatechange/ghgemissions/gases/fgases.html">14,000 times</a> the global warming potential as a pound of carbon dioxide. U.S. emissions of HFCs are the <a href="http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/EN.ATM.HFCG.KT.CE?order=wbapi_data_value_2010+wbapi_data_value+wbapi_data_value-first&amp;sort=desc">largest of any country</a> in the world, <a href="http://epa.gov/climatechange/ghgemissions/gases/fgases.html">and they’re rising</a>—but they’re soon to get dwarfed by demand for cooling in places like India as the climate warms and <a href="http://www.slate.com/articles/arts/culturebox/2011/07/a_history_of_air_conditioning.html">the global middle class of people who can afford air conditioning expands</a>. The proportion of humanity’s total impact on the climate by HFCs is projected to grow rapidly in the coming decades—and <a href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2700150/">could amount to</a> 28 to 45 percent of all human-induced global warming by 2050 if the world cracks down on carbon dioxide in the meantime.</p>
<p>So what’s the good news? Air conditioning is a <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/future_tense/2014/06/11/india_s_heat_wave_is_unbearable_extreme_temperatures_in_new_delhi_mumbai.html">life-and-death issue in India</a>, where its use is projected to grow at a whopping 20 percent per year for the foreseeable future. India had been opposing a <a href="http://switchboard.nrdc.org/blogs/akar/energy_efficient_climate_frien.html">transition to HFC alternatives</a> to allow the greatest access to cooling possible. But a big breakthrough on HFCs came earlier this month when India <a href="http://www.rtcc.org/2015/04/17/india-hostility-to-hfc-phase-out-thaws-submits-plans-to-un/">unexpectedly submitted a plan</a> for their global phase-out using the existing Montreal Protocol—the same treaty used to phase out CFCs decades ago. Lead U.S. climate diplomat Todd Stern <a href="http://in.reuters.com/article/2015/04/17/india-climatechange-hfc-idINL2N0XE1R720150417">claimed victory</a>, crediting a bilateral meeting between Obama and Indian Prime Minister Modi in January. The U.S. and China had <a href="http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2013/06/08/2125531/breaking-news-us-and-china-aim-to-phase-down-use-of-potent-greenhouse-gases-known-as-hfcs/">previously agreed</a> to a similar deal on HFCs in 2013, and the Obama administration announced a voluntary deal with American cooling-intensive companies, like Coca-Cola, <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2014/09/17/us/hfc-emissions-cut-under-agreement.html?_r=0">last fall</a>.</p>
<p>Because the structure of this year’s first-ever global agreement on climate change is also voluntary—with each country <a href="http://www.slate.com/articles/health_and_science/science/2015/03/climate_change_in_the_himalayas_peer_pressure_and_voluntary_actions_in_paris.html">effectively trying to peer-pressure others</a> into greater cuts—it matters that the Obama administration is emerging as an effective negotiating force. India hasn’t yet announced its overall economy-wide goal for cutting carbon, but <a href="http://www.rtcc.org/2015/04/20/india-considers-twin-track-climate-plans-towards-un-deal/">is rumored to be leaving the door open</a> for more significant cuts should wealthier countries agree to fund them.</p>
<p>Back home, the Obama administration is also flexing its powers of suggestion this week within the agriculture sector—a group <a href="http://www.scientificamerican.com/article/what-do-farmers-think-about-climate-change/">not particularly known</a> for its outspoken desire to tackle climate change.</p>
<p>Next to carbon dioxide, methane is the most important greenhouse gas, and is 86 times more powerful, pound-for-pound. Because of manure management and, yes, cow belches, <a href="http://epa.gov/climatechange/ghgemissions/gases/ch4.html">agriculture is a bigger emitter</a> of methane than the entire oil and gas industry. Agricultural methane emissions <a href="http://epa.gov/climatechange/ghgemissions/sources/agriculture.html">have been growing over the last decade</a>, even as overall U.S. emissions declined.</p>
<p>On Thursday, the Obama administration <a href="http://www.usda.gov/wps/portal/usda/usdahome?contentid=2015/04/0109.xml&amp;contentidonly=true">announced</a> a “comprehensive approach” to enlist American farmers in a voluntary effort to cut greenhouse gases—carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrogen oxides—through programs and incentives designed to reduce fertilizer use, encouraging tree planting, and <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/future_tense/2015/01/15/forget_the_oil_industry_s_methane_obama_should_crack_down_on_cows.html">turn poop into power</a> by capturing methane. The moves <a href="http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2015/04/24/carbon-emissions-agriculture/26285753/">will save</a> an estimated 120 million metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent per year by 2025, <a href="http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2015/04/23/3650282/usda-climate-change-plan/">closing the gap by about a third</a> between his economy-wide pledge and the sum total of all of Obama’s myriad executive actions and regulations on climate thus far.</p>
<p>Now that Obama <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/climate-change">has targeted</a> power plants, vehicles, government buildings, the agriculture sector, the fossil fuel industry, and <a href="http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/politics/2015/02/the_climate_case_against_meat_u_s_nutrition_panel_suggests_americans_eat.html">advocated for a plant-based diet</a>, there isn’t much low-hanging fruit left. Hamstrung by an unwilling Congress, Obama’s climate team has accomplished about all they can by going the voluntary route. The next step will be attempting <a href="http://blogs.wsj.com/washwire/2015/04/10/a-pitch-to-conservatives-for-a-carbon-tax-with-a-twist/">a bi-partisan economy-wide carbon cap</a>—a feat that will probably fall to the next president. &nbsp;</p>Fri, 24 Apr 2015 20:39:00 GMThttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2015/04/24/obama_s_latest_moves_on_climate_maybe_his_strategy_is_working.htmlEric Holthaus2015-04-24T20:39:00ZbriefingObama’s Climate Strategy Isn’t Ambitious, but It Might Be Working227150424008barack obamaclimate changeglobal warmingindiaagricultureagriculture climate changeEric HolthausThe SlatestThe Slatesthttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2015/04/24/obama_s_latest_moves_on_climate_maybe_his_strategy_is_working.htmlfalsefalsefalseObama's climate strategy isn't ambitious, but it might be working:Obama’s Climate Strategy Isn’t Ambitious, but It Might Be WorkingPhoto by Justin Sullivan/Getty ImagesObama's latest move on climate change involves incentives for the agriculture industry to cut back on methane emissions.Be Mesmerized by the Stunning Volcanic Eruption in Chilehttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2015/04/23/chile_s_calbuco_volcano_erupts_spectacularly_producing_stunning_photos_and.html
<p>On Wednesday afternoon residents of southern Chile were caught off guard when the Calbuco volcano, dormant for the last 42 years, unexpectedly sprang to life. According to official reports from the Chilean government, there was <a href="http://www.wired.com/2015/04/chiles-calbuco-unleashes-dramatic-explosive-eruption/">only 15 minutes</a> of warning. Which is pretty frightening.</p>
<p>Thankfully, Chile is pretty excellent when it comes to protecting its citizens from volcanic hazards, and there have been no reports of deaths or serious injuries so far, though a nearby small town <a href="http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2015/04/22/calbuco-volcano-chile/26216651/">was evacuated</a>.</p>
<p>Calbuco lies in a very active geological region, part of the so-called <a href="http://pubs.usgs.gov/gip/dynamic/graphics/Fig22.gif">Ring of Fire</a> of volcanoes and frequent earthquakes that encircles the Pacific Ocean, so an eruption like this isn’t at all out of the ordinary. But that doesn’t mean we can’t all gawk at the incredible photos.</p>
<p>Calbuco’s first eruption lasted about <a href="https://twitter.com/Sernageomin/status/591073043167969280">an hour and a half</a>, shooting a photogenic plume of ash <a href="https://twitter.com/Sernageomin/status/591197281782734849">miles into the sky</a>. Here’s what it looked like from a drone (the video is sped up about four times faster than normal):</p>
<p>A second, <a href="https://twitter.com/Sernageomin/status/591105090838233088">even stronger eruption</a> began in the early hours of Thursday morning and lasted until just after sunrise. The second eruption featured highly electrified pyrocumulus clouds—producing an apocalyptic scene:</p>
<p>I’ve <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/future_tense/2014/08/05/oregon_gulch_fire_photos_show_pyrocumulus_clouds_and_fighter_jets_over_wildfire.html">written about pyrocumulus before</a>—these clouds are produced when wildfires, volcanoes, or some other atypical heat source sends warm air rising upward, which then cools and condenses into tiny water droplets or ice crystals. If the updraft is strong enough, you can get a pretty amazing lightning show, which is exactly what happened at Calbuco.</p>
<p>Thanks to the proximity of Puerto Montt, a city of about a quarter-million people (which <a href="https://twitter.com/Sernageomin/status/591243920828473346">isn’t in immediate danger</a>), there are loads of amazing photos and videos coming out of the region right now. (Check out the photo slideshow at the top of this post for more.)</p>
<p>The eruption was <a href="https://twitter.com/CIMSS_Satellite/status/591009132179808256">also visible</a> from <a href="https://twitter.com/CIMSS_Satellite/status/591030832506269697">weather satellites</a> and the International Space Station:</p>
<p>In case you’re wondering, the Calbuco volcano is pretty photogenic on a normal day. I even had a chance to see it for myself back in 2011. Here’s what it looked like then:</p>
<p>As the eruptions themselves wane, ash is starting to accumulate on the ground nearby.</p>
<p>The ash cloud has already made it all the way to Argentina:</p>
<p>Guillermo Abramson, who lives in Bariloche, Argentina—less than 100 miles from Calbuco—also captured <a href="http://guillermoabramson.blogspot.com.ar/2015/04/orion-vs-calbuco.html">some stunning photos</a> of the ash cloud moving overhead.</p>
<p>Since it’s been so explosive so far, there’s a chance Calbuco’s ash could help slightly cool the planet for the next year or two, according to a <a href="http://www.carbonbrief.org/blog/2015/04/how-do-volcanic-eruptions-influence-the-climate/?utm_content=buffer3a93d&amp;utm_medium=social&amp;utm_source=twitter.com&amp;utm_campaign=buffer">quick survey of climate scientists</a> by the <em>Carbon Brief</em>. The first three months of 2015 were record-warm worldwide, and thanks to a building El Ni&ntilde;o, the globe is <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2015/04/15/_2015_is_hot_a_weirdly_warm_pacific_ocean_is_set_to_make_this_year_the_warmest.html">currently on pace</a> for the warmest year on record—as long as Calbuco doesn’t interfere.</p>
<p>On Thursday morning I spoke with Erik Klemetti, a geoscientist at Denison University <a href="http://www.wired.com/2015/04/chiles-calbuco-unleashes-dramatic-explosive-eruption/">who writes</a> the Eruptions blog at <em>Wired</em>, and is generally my go-to source when things like this happen.</p>
<p>Klemetti says that so far, Calbuco has produced a “fairly benign eruption for its size.” That said, “anytime you get that much material kicked up into the air, once it comes down it’s going to be a hazard.” Klemetti said that besides the obvious breathing risk with all the falling ash, there could be lingering impacts to drinking water, farmers, and damage from mudflows.</p>
<p>At this point, it’s impossible to know if there will be further eruptions, but Klemetti speculated that Calbuco could continue to produce a “series of explosions and then lava flows for a while.” Klemetti said that Chile has an eruption like this every five years or so.</p>
<p>What’s most shocking is how suddenly the volcano sprang to life. “Less than 24 hours ago, the volcano was completely on the lowest alert level,” Klemetti said. “Volcanoes will sometimes throw you a curveball.”</p>Thu, 23 Apr 2015 17:57:15 GMThttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2015/04/23/chile_s_calbuco_volcano_erupts_spectacularly_producing_stunning_photos_and.htmlEric Holthaus2015-04-23T17:57:15ZbriefingBe Mesmerized by the Stunning Volcanic Eruption in Chile227150423006chilevolcanoesEric HolthausThe SlatestThe Slatesthttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2015/04/23/chile_s_calbuco_volcano_erupts_spectacularly_producing_stunning_photos_and.htmlfalsefalsefalseHoly electrified pyrocumulus! Chile's erupting Calbuco volcano is a sight to behold:Be Mesmerized by the Stunning Volcanic Eruption in ChilePhoto by Rafael Arenas/STR/ReutersSmoke and ash rise from the Calbuco volcano as seen from the city of Puerto Montt, April 22, 2015.Losing Groundhttp://www.slate.com/articles/health_and_science/science/2015/04/obama_s_earth_day_speech_the_everglades_is_losing_to_climate_change.html
<p>On Wednesday—Earth Day—President Obama is traveling to Florida to give us an update on climate change. He picked the right setting: the Everglades. But for the scientists who’ve been working on restoring the health of the Everglades for decades, it’s time for something more than just speeches.</p>
<p>Right now, South Florida is in the midst of a <a href="https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/590499556418191361">record-setting</a> springtime heat wave. A nearly 2,000-acre wildfire <a href="http://www.cnn.com/2015/04/20/us/florida-miami-dade-county-wildfire/">has been burning this week</a> on the outskirts of the Everglades in the face of the <a href="https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/590491038722039809">summerlike temperatures</a>. Earlier this year, <a href="http://mashable.com/2015/02/28/miami-flood-pictures/">cars floated through Miami streets</a> as the city bore 10 inches of rain in just a few hours.</p>
<p>But it doesn’t even take rain to flood Miami these days—a high tide on a clear day in October 2012 produced a bigger flood than a hurricane that hit just 13 years earlier. According to an analysis of tide gauge data by Brian McNoldy, a meteorologist at the University of Miami, the pace of sea level rise in South Florida <a href="http://www.wired.com/2015/02/rising-sea-levels-already-making-miamis-floods-worse/">has more than quadrupled</a> over the last five years compared with the previous 15. Climate change is already changing Florida, and it’s happening fast.</p>
<p>The mounting evidence is terrifying scientists who, after years of delays and funding shortfalls and political jabs from federal and state officials, can do little but watch as the encroaching sea slowly transforms the state’s marshes and swamps into open ocean, inch by inch.</p>
<p>The Earth Day event is being billed as a legacy speech for a president who has staked his reputation partly on his environmental record. And it’s symbolic that he’s talking about global warming in a state that has produced several high-profile climate-denying politicians.</p>
<p>In a <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/blog/2015/04/18/weekly-address-climate-change-can-no-longer-be-ignored">preview of his speech</a> on Saturday, Obama said “there is no greater threat to our planet than climate change,” a problem that “can no longer be denied or ignored”—an obvious dig at Florida’s high-profile presidential hopefuls Sen. Marco Rubio and former Gov. Jeb Bush.</p>
<p>Florida’s leading politicians have turned inaction on climate change into an art form, with some, including Rubio, even bragging about their ignorance on the issue by declaring “<a href="http://www.slate.com/articles/health_and_science/science/2014/10/i_m_not_a_scientist_excuse_politicians_don_t_need_to_be_experts_to_make.html">I’m not a scientist</a>.” Current Florida Gov. Rick Scott apparently instituted <a href="http://www.miamiherald.com/news/state/florida/article12983720.html">an audacious ban</a> on state officials even mentioning the terms <em>global warming</em> and <em>climate change</em> (which has produced <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/bad_astronomy/2015/03/26/global_warming_florida_governor_rick_scott_s_gag_order.html">some awkward public meetings</a>), though he denies the policy formally exists.</p>
<p>On Friday, Bush at least <a href="http://www.eenews.net/stories/1060017042">admitted</a> that he was “concerned” about climate change, distancing himself from more extreme views within his own party.</p>
<p>Obama couldn’t have picked a better place to showcase how frustratingly complicated it’s been for America to take effective steps toward preparing for climate change. (The mayor of South Miami recently proposed that the south part of the state secede <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/future_tense/2014/10/23/south_florida_as_51st_state_the_city_of_south_miami_votes_to_break_away.html">to protest inaction on climate change</a>.)</p>
<p>The Everglades are the subject of a multibillion-dollar comprehensive restoration plan, but <a href="http://www.miamiherald.com/opinion/editorials/article19180491.html">15 years in</a>, there’s been precious little to show in terms of progress.</p>
<p>Originally conceived in the 1990s as a response to the short-sighted U.S. Army Corps of Engineers flood control projects of the mid-20<sup>th</sup> century, Everglades restoration has since had an “incredible number of glitches, problems, funding delays, congressional foot-dragging, you name it,” says the <em>Tampa Bay Times</em>’ <a href="http://www.slate.com/authors.craig_pittman.html">Craig Pittman</a>, who has covered the topic <a href="http://www.pavingparadise.org/">extensively</a>.</p>
<p>As of 2015, <a href="http://www.news-press.com/story/news/2015/03/15/finish-line-appears-decades-away-glades-restoration/24766649/">only 13 of the 68</a> original projects that were part of the 2000 Comprehensive Everglades Restoration Plan have been federally authorized. What was supposed to be a $7 billion, 30-year project has since doubled in expected cost and may not be finished until 2050. By then, climate change is expected to produce a $40 billion hit <em>annually</em> to South Florida’s tourism industry, <a href="http://www.news-press.com/story/news/politics/2015/04/20/obama-spend-earth-day-everglades/26087485/">according to a recent federal study</a>.</p>
<p>Lance Gunderson, an environmental scientist and South Florida native now at Emory University, contributed research that helped motivate the original Everglades restoration legislation in 2000. Since then, Gunderson says, political support for the Everglades restoration has been “all over the map,” with even local representatives voting against it at times.</p>
<p>After the Florida housing crash in 2008, Gunderson says “state budget went to shambles,” and lots of scientists in the state water management districts, which are funded by property tax revenues, were laid off. Now, in the face of climate change, he’s pessimistic and thinks that all the setbacks may have finally amounted to a death sentence for the ultimate vision of Everglades restoration. “Quite frankly, I don’t think they’re ever going to get there,” he said.</p>
<p>But there are a few signs of success. During the 1960s, the Corps converted the winding Kissimmee River into a 56-mile drainage canal (whimsically named C-38) in the name of flood control. The impact on birds and other species that lived along the river was disastrous. By later this year, the river’s bends will be back, and the birds <a href="http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/rec.12059/abstract">already are</a>. The project <a href="http://fl.audubon.org/kissimmee-river-restoration">is now a model</a> for successful wetlands restoration.</p>
<p>Another hopeful project that’s underway is converting the Tamiami Trail—the first road across the Everglades, built in 1928—into a long bridge. The Everglades are sustained by a “river of grass,” a miles-wide and inch-deep flow of fresh water that is the lifeblood of the swamps of South Florida. Since its construction, the Tamiami (named for Tampa and Miami, its two endpoints) has served as an effective dam of southward flow of water. Raising the road would provide “almost immediate relief to Everglades National Park, which has been starved for water for decades,” said Pittman.</p>
<p>Still, many question whether the Everglades are a lost cause. After all, the Everglades are already sinking into the sea—literally.</p>
<p>“Sea level rise is probably a bigger problem in Florida than any other state,” said Pittman. “We are the flattest state. We are flatter than Kansas.”</p>
<p>At the Ernest Coe Visitor Center in Everglades National Park, where Obama will be making his address Wednesday afternoon, the elevation is 4 feet above sea level. Given <a href="http://ssrf.climatecentral.org/#location=FL_County_12086&amp;state=Florida&amp;level=4&amp;geo=County&amp;pt=p&amp;target=&amp;p=P&amp;protection=tidelthresh&amp;setting=ACE_med&amp;stLoc=FL_County_12086&amp;stn=8725110&amp;proj=With+extreme+flood">current midrange sea level rise scenarios</a>, the ground the president will be standing on <a href="http://ss2.climatecentral.org/?bbox=26.0636354,-80.9491435938,25.0532186,-80.0426204688&amp;label=Miami-Dade%20County#9/25.3813/-80.5820?show=satellite&amp;level=4&amp;pois=show">will likely be underwater</a> should a big hurricane strike in the 2050s, and could be submerged on a clear day by 2100.</p>
<p>What’s more, sea level rise is already causing “basically a collapse, or breakdown, of the soil” along the fringes of the Everglades, says Steve Davis, a wetland ecologist at the Everglades Foundation. That means that at the same time sea level is rising, ground elevation is sinking due to saltwater intrusion.</p>
<p>The geology of the region exacerbates this problem. Porous limestone allows saltwater to percolate up from below, infiltrating the freshwater aquifer. Drinking wells <a href="http://www.marketplace.org/topics/sustainability/water-high-price-cheap/rising-seas-threaten-south-floridas-drinking-water">have already been contaminated</a> with seawater in the Miami area, and the city is investing in an elaborate system of pumps to keep its water supply fresh.</p>
<p>One of the key goals of Everglades restoration is to increase the total volume of freshwater in the Everglades and South Florida, from Lake Okeechobee in the north to the Keys in the south. Since freshwater is less dense than saltwater, it floats on top of and pushes down against seawater. The hope is that more freshwater will form a partial barrier against sea level rise, forcing the intruding ocean back toward the coasts.</p>
<p>Currently, a system of 60-year-old canals and drainage ditches channel freshwater toward the coasts and into the ocean, providing little benefit to the swamp. “By putting that water back in the Everglades instead of sending it to the east and the west, it helps to fill that bubble of water underneath us with freshwater,” said Davis.</p>
<p>The growing appreciation that the Everglades will be lost to the Atlantic has likely paused steady restoration funding over the years, but scientists working on the project say, if anything, <a href="http://www.news-press.com/story/life/outdoors/2014/07/03/everglades-restoration-needed-face-sea-level-rise/12120819/">just the opposite should be true</a>. There’s a lot of benefit in acting to buy a couple of decades.</p>
<p>According to nearly every scientist I spoke with, the worst-case scenario at this point is continuing to do nothing. That fact is leading to a change in the way science is being done in South Florida.</p>
<p>To date, science supporting Everglades restoration has focused mostly on modeling the impacts of proposed actions. For Nick Aumen, an aquatic ecologist at the U.S. Geological Survey, that’s not enough.</p>
<p>“We know that the system is under stress,” said Aumen. “In any situation like that, the faster you move the more likely your chances for success are.” In the case of the Everglades, “the consequences of not doing anything are greater than taking the risk of making some moves, and then learning and continuing to collect good scientific information as we go along.”</p>
<p>By chance, Aumen this week is chairing a biennial scientific meeting on Everglades restoration, with 530 people in attendance. So far, the buzz at the conference was excitement for the president’s visit, but more importantly, a desire to turn words into action.</p>Wed, 22 Apr 2015 18:12:35 GMThttp://www.slate.com/articles/health_and_science/science/2015/04/obama_s_earth_day_speech_the_everglades_is_losing_to_climate_change.htmlEric Holthaus2015-04-22T18:12:35ZThe Everglades is the site of America’s biggest battle against climate change.Health and ScienceObama Picked the Perfect Location for an Earth Day Speech100150422009climate changeenvironmentfloridaEric HolthausSciencehttp://www.slate.com/articles/health_and_science/science/2015/04/obama_s_earth_day_speech_the_everglades_is_losing_to_climate_change.htmlfalsefalsefalseObama picked the perfect location for an Earth Day speech. But speech isn’t enough. By @EricHolthaus:Obama Picked the Perfect Location for an Earth Day SpeechPhoto by Joe Raedle/Getty ImagesA rain cloud moves over the Florida Everglades September 12, 2007 in the Everglades National Park, Florida.Manifesto Calls for an End to “People Are Bad” Environmentalismhttp://www.slate.com/blogs/future_tense/2015/04/20/ecomodernism_a_21st_century_environmental_philosophy_that_embraces_a_good.html
<p>In the past few days, a new missive has injected a firecracker into the debate on humanity’s long-term relationship with nature.</p>
<p>The “<a href="http://www.ecomodernism.org/">Ecomodernist Manifesto</a>,” a document <a href="http://thebreakthrough.org/index.php/voices/michael-shellenberger-and-ted-nordhaus/an">championed by</a> the pro-gas, pro-nuclear Breakthrough Institute, imagines a different kind of environmentalism that embraces humanity’s growing demand for energy—a sharp deviation from the conventional wisdom of the eco-left. Essentially, the manifesto asks the question: What if <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/future_tense/2015/03/12/study_says_the_anthropocene_or_age_of_man_began_in_1610.html">the Anthropocene</a>—the age of humans—is actually a good thing for the Earth, too?</p>
<p>Thanks to abundant energy, the ecomodernists argue, humanity has done wonderful things: Life expectancy is on the rise, infectious disease risk has plummeted, natural disasters kill fewer people, and abject poverty is on the decline. Of course, those gains have not come without sacrifice: We’re losing species at an incredible rate, and climate change could add ever more stress on human and natural systems.</p>
<p>The answer, according to the authors of the new document, is to “liberate the environment from the economy.” Ecomodernists argue that by focusing the human footprint into cities and prioritizing high-efficiency agriculture and energy production, we’ll be able to retreat from nature and let it recover. Now, that’s easier said than done, and likely to come with a whole set of <a href="http://www.scu.edu/ethics/publications/submitted/healy/consequences.html">unintended consequences</a>, but I’m willing to give them the benefit of the doubt for discussion purposes. They list “urbanization, agricultural intensification, nuclear power, aquaculture, and desalination” as technologies that can reduce the overall human footprint and leave “more room for non-human species.”</p>
<p>Whether humanity will decouple the economy from our environmental overreach in time to maintain a planet worth preserving is another question. Confronted with this reality, humans of the 21<sup>st</sup> century have a choice, according to ecomodernists: further intensify our low-carbon-energy use and hope for a technological breakthrough (like <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/future_tense/2015/02/24/free_air_carbon_capture_a_climate_engineering_idea_worth_considering.html">sucking carbon out of the air</a>) or retreat from modernity and risk civilizational backsliding. Their choice is clear: “We embrace an optimistic view toward human capacities and the future.”</p>
<p>These kinds of statements, as you might expect, are not without controversy and criticism from mainstream environmentalists:</p>
<p>(Kivalina, close followers of the climate apocalypse might recognize, is the name of a small native Alaskan village <a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2015/02/24/the-remote-alaskan-village-that-needs-to-be-relocated-due-to-climate-change/">that is slowly sliding into the sea</a>.)</p>
<p>A few of the manifesto authors are not without controversy themselves. David Keith, a Canadian environmental scientist, runs a <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/future_tense/2015/02/24/free_air_carbon_capture_a_climate_engineering_idea_worth_considering.html">free air carbon capture</a> company and <a href="http://www.ted.com/talks/david_keith_s_surprising_ideas_on_climate_change">is an advocate of geoengineering</a>. Roger Pielke Jr., a professor at the University of Colorado, was recently the <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2015/02/26/science/lawmakers-seek-information-on-funding-for-climate-change-critics.html?_r=0">subject of a brief congressional inquiry</a> into the funding sources of his research, though it ultimately went nowhere. Last year, Pielke wrote a controversial post on disasters and climate change at <em>FiveThirtyEight</em>, forcing site founder Nate Silver <a href="http://www.politico.com/blogs/media/2014/07/roger-pielke-jr-leaves-fivethirtyeight-192991.html">to publish a rebuttal</a>. Pielke later left the site. But these examples shouldn’t distract from what they have to say here.</p>
<p>Paul Robbins, director of the Nelson Institute for Environmental Studies at the University of Wisconsin–Madison, says the collection of ideas espoused in the new document couldn’t come at a better time. (He was not involved with writing the manifesto.)</p>
<p>Robbins believes the document is a reflection of a growing subset of environmentalists that the “people are bad” tradition of campaigning on behalf of nature is a tired and worn-out argument. Ideas like those in the manifesto are “taking up a lot of political space, because it’s persuasive and it’s a counterweight,” Robbins said.</p>
<p>A “manifesto” is a political document, after all. Robbins thinks it’s no accident that this one has emerged just as the 2016 presidential campaign gets underway. “They’re providing arguments for people in the middle to hold on to so they can have some kind of environmental vision,” said Robbins. The ecomodernists are aiming for a “third way” in <a href="http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/enhanced/doi/10.1002/wcc.317">contemporary environmentalism</a>—they’re generally agnostic on both carbon taxes and regulation, for which they’ve <a href="http://www.slate.com/articles/health_and_science/science/2012/12/modern_green_movement_eco_pragmatists_are_challenging_traditional_environmentalists.html">drawn the ire of pretty much everyone</a>. To further dialogue, the authors of the 32-page manifesto took the rare step of <a href="http://www.ecomodernism.org/responses/">posting responses</a>, including critiques, on their own website.</p>
<p>Robbins thinks the manifesto might be aimed at political centrists—like Republican Sen. <a href="http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/politics/2015/03/lindsey_graham_for_president_the_republican_senator_from_south_carolina.html">Lindsey Graham</a> and Hillary Clinton—who have prioritized the environment but weakly defined their climate and energy policies and may be looking for a broader vision. “You’ve got to have some kind of position, and they’re offering them something to jump at,” Robbins said. “It’s not like they’re going to jump on <a href="http://www.slate.com/articles/technology/future_tense/2014/09/this_changes_everything_naomi_klein_on_climate_change_and_capitalism.html">Naomi Klein’s bandwagon</a>.”</p>
<p>The manifesto looks a lot like <a href="http://www.slate.com/articles/technology/future_tense/2014/01/all_of_the_above_obama_s_energy_policy_isn_t_as_stupid_as_it_sounds.html">Barack Obama’s “all of the above” energy strategy</a>, with the notable addition of a healthy dose of nuclear power and an emphasis on a global vision of humanity’s increasing energy needs. The Ecomodernist Manifesto also adds a justice component: reducing energy poverty and liberating the Earth from an unnecessarily large human footprint will reduce global inequality and foster democratic society for places largely left out of development’s riches, or so the theory goes. The world’s poor consume only a small fraction of the electricity that we do in the United States. (The average American consumes 265 times as much electricity as the average Ethiopian, according to <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2015/04/15/business/an-environmentalist-call-to-look-past-sustainable-development.html">data analyzed by the <em>New York Times</em></a>.) The authors say that needs to change, and I agree.</p>
<p>The United States is now on a likely <a href="http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/ghgemissions/gases/co2.html">permanent downward trend</a> of carbon emissions, much of which has been credited to the rise in cheap natural gas. It’ll be hard to keep that trend going without an increased emphasis on nuclear power.</p>
<p>Still, after decades of hearing environmentalists rally against things (no Keystone!), the change in tone coming from ecomodernists is palpable and welcome. It’s inclusive, it’s exciting, and it gives environmentalists something to fight <em>for</em> for a change. Plus, the ecomodernist focus on people <em>and</em> planet gives the broad middle of the American public a way to embrace ethical economic growth, without having to chain themselves to a pipeline.</p>Mon, 20 Apr 2015 15:10:51 GMThttp://www.slate.com/blogs/future_tense/2015/04/20/ecomodernism_a_21st_century_environmental_philosophy_that_embraces_a_good.htmlEric Holthaus2015-04-20T15:10:51ZTechnologyManifesto Calls for an End to “People Are Bad” Environmentalism203150420001climate changeglobal warmingEric HolthausFuture TenseFuture Tensehttp://www.slate.com/blogs/future_tense/2015/04/20/ecomodernism_a_21st_century_environmental_philosophy_that_embraces_a_good.htmlfalsefalsefalseFinally! Meet ecomodernism, an environmental philosophy that's optimistic about the future:Manifesto Calls for an End to “People Are Bad” EnvironmentalismPhoto by Philippe Lopez/AFP/Getty ImagesWhat if humanity is nature's best hope? Here, Hong Kong as seen in February 2013.Stop Vilifying Almondshttp://www.slate.com/articles/business/moneybox/2015/04/almonds_in_california_they_use_up_a_lot_of_water_but_they_deserve_a_place.html
<p>This year’s “rainy” season is over, and California is <a href="http://www.newyorker.com/news/news-desk/california-accepts-a-drought-filled-future">beginning to accept</a> its fate: <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2015/04/05/opinion/sunday/watering-californias-farms.html">Business-as-usual</a> farming in the Golden State <a href="http://www.slate.com/articles/technology/future_tense/2014/10/california_central_valley_agriculture_drought_and_climate_change_photos.html">may soon become</a> a thing of the past. The drought is now <a href="https://twitter.com/PeterGleick/status/585483306621411328">so far</a> beyond <a href="https://twitter.com/EricHolthaus/status/585858591212507136">the bounds of normal</a> it’s become at least temporarily <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/future_tense/2014/12/09/noaa_study_asking_what_caused_california_s_drought_misses_the_point.html">self-sustaining</a>. Extreme heat begets more evaporation, and dry ground heats up more quickly than wet soil. Add in a dash of global warming, and you have a recipe for <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/future_tense/2015/03/20/california_megadrought_it_s_already_begun.html">a megadrought</a> that may last decades. For a state whose decades-long water-fueled bender has made it the <a href="http://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/farm-income-and-wealth-statistics/farm-finance-indicators-state-ranking.aspx#.VS6FPhPF9q4">most important agricultural producer in the country</a>, one that <a href="http://www.cdfa.ca.gov/statistics/">leads the nation</a> in countless water-intensive food crops, that’s all pretty terrifying.</p>
<p>It also explains the heated debate we’ve been having recently over, of all things, almonds—or “THE DEVIL’S NUT,” <a href="http://gizmodo.com/seriously-stop-demonizing-almonds-1696065939">as <em>Gizmodo</em></a> facetiously called them recently. Amid the massive new water restrictions now in place in California, water-intensive almonds have become an <a href="http://www.motherjones.com/environment/2015/01/california-drought-almonds-water-use">easily</a> <a href="http://gizmodo.com/how-the-drought-is-devastating-californias-1-food-exp-1517881858">vilified</a>, easily visualized scapegoat.</p>
<p>It’s true that California has to get smarter—fast—about using what little water it has left. But we should recognize that the state has other, much sillier uses of water than almonds—like depleting California’s desert aquifers to grow hay and corn to fatten cows. (Nebraska already does a pretty good job at that.) I’m by no means an almond apologist, but all this recent <a href="http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2015-04-07/california-s-almond-farmers-have-become-a-target">almond-shaming</a> demands some context. And, in fact, there’s a strong case that it makes great sense for almonds to remain central to the future of California agriculture.</p>
<p>For now, California’s unique Mediterranean climate is <a href="http://geographical.co.uk/nature/climate/item/744-california-s-almond-crisis">almost ideal</a> for almonds to flourish. Yes, almonds use a lot of water, but that’s not necessarily a bad thing. Almonds are much more efficient water-users, per calorie, <a href="http://magazine.good.is/infographics/almonds-water-drought-california">than dairy</a> or <a href="https://twitter.com/drvox/status/586209006068215808">beef</a>, for example. (As a Wisconsin resident, I feel duty-bound to remind everyone at this point that dairy farming can be done almost anywhere—and indeed, dairies in search of more reliable water <a href="http://www.grandforksherald.com/news/agriculture/3710565-dairy-expo-attendance-balloons">are leaving California</a> because of the current drought.) Replacing a glass of cow’s milk with almond milk is a net gain for the environment. But almond trees, which must be watered even when they’re not producing, have been gradually displacing fields of row crops that can be fallowed when the weather turns dry. That means by planting almonds, farmers are locking in future water use for decades to come—a troubling trend.</p>
<p><em>Mother Jones</em> has owned the almond beat <a href="https://www.google.com/search?q=mother+jones+almonds&amp;oq=mother+jones+almonds&amp;aqs=chrome..69i57j69i60l3.4391j0j7&amp;sourceid=chrome&amp;es_sm=91&amp;ie=UTF-8">for more than a year</a> now. The magazine has helped us learn that it takes <a href="http://www.motherjones.com/environment/2014/02/wheres-californias-water-going">about a gallon of water</a> to grow a single almond, and the state’s <a href="http://www.motherjones.com/environment/2015/01/california-drought-almonds-water-use">expanding class of almond tycoons</a> are increasingly eager to use almonds to <a href="http://www.motherjones.com/environment/2014/11/almonds-water-walnuts-pistachios-california-drought-charts">convert the state’s dwindling water supplies to cash</a>. Almonds use <a href="http://www.motherjones.com/environment/2015/01/almonds-nuts-crazy-stats-charts">about as much water</a> each year as the entire city of Los Angeles does in three, and <a href="http://www.motherjones.com/environment/2015/04/real-problem-almonds">about two-thirds</a> of those nuts are exported. As long as the world wants almonds, California will be happy to oblige—that fact <a href="http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2015/03/30/how-growers-gamed-california-s-drought.html">is increasingly clear</a>.</p>
<p>Last year at this time, I was in the midst of <a href="http://www.slate.com/topics/t/thirsty_west.html">a 12-part series</a> on water issues in the West. One statistic I calculated during that time has since gone viral: <a href="http://www.slate.com/articles/technology/future_tense/2014/05/_10_percent_of_california_s_water_goes_to_almond_farming.html">Almonds use 10 percent</a> of California’s agricultural water supply.</p>
<p>Hoping to update that statistic, I recently got in touch with the Almond Board of California—a voice for the industry (its Twitter handle is <a href="https://twitter.com/almonds">@almonds</a>). The group agreed that the statistic was essentially correct—though it stressed that the range is probably somewhere between 8 and 11 percent, depending on how much rain and snow fall in a given year. We put our heads together to come up with an updated version of my calculation, with numbers specific to this winter.</p>
<p>First, some background. California’s agricultural water supply can be broken into <a href="http://www.water.ca.gov/waterconditions/waterconditions.cfm">three major sources</a>: snowpack, reservoirs, and groundwater, which provide roughly equal amounts of water in a normal year. In drought years like this one, farmers rely more intensely on groundwater to make up for what didn’t fall from the sky—meaning aquifers are being drained even more quickly.</p>
<p>Here’s the amount of water California’s agricultural sector has to work with this year, calculated in million acre-feet, one of which equals 325,000,000,000 gallons, 1,200 Empire State Buildings <a href="http://www.answers.com/Q/How_much_water_would_it_take_to_fill_the_Empire_State_Building">full of water</a>: The <a href="http://www.nrdc.org/water/files/ca-snowpack-and-drought-FS.pdf">snowpack</a> is at record lows, just <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2015/04/03/california_drought_the_state_s_snowpack_is_a_new_record_low_by_far.html">5 percent of normal</a> (0.75 MAF, 14.25 MAF less than normal). <a href="https://watershed.ucdavis.edu/files/biblio/DroughtReport_23July2014_0.pdf">Reservoirs</a> are doing a bit better, at about two-thirds of normal (13.2 MAF, 6.8 MAF less than normal). <a href="http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/NaturalHazards/view.php?id=84065">Groundwater</a> has made up some of the difference, and is being pumped at a rate about 34 percent above normal (19.8 MAF, 5.1 MAF more than normal). That means the total agricultural water supply this year is 33.75 MAF.</p>
<p>Of the 33.75 million acre-feet of water available to agriculture in 2015 (enough water to supply the entire San Francisco Bay area for more than 30 years), almonds are on track to use 3.6 million acre-feet, or 11 percent.</p>
<p>The California almond industry has doubled its acreage since 2005. But whether almonds are the best use of a dwindling supply, factoring in climate change projections, is a different question. These are trees, remember, which have a productive lifespan of 20 to 25 years. They're going to be there until it’s not economical for them to be there anymore.</p>
<p>Over the last few decades, there’s been a shift from low value (cotton, rice) to high value (almonds, pistachios) agriculture in California as the effective cost of water has increased. (Though water typically isn’t metered, <a href="http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2014/08/140815-central-valley-california-drilling-boom-groundwater-drought-wells/">it’s become extremely expensive</a> to dig deeper wells.) In a real sense, the almond industry is the future of California agriculture—high value, <a href="http://www.sacbee.com/news/politics-government/article2591279.html">high efficiency</a>, but still high consuming. That’s not necessarily a bad thing, as it makes most sense to use a scarce resource for the highest value application possible.</p>
<p>The problem is that, thanks to the current drought, the water supply is going away faster than expected. The almond industry is an indicator of how difficult it might be to adapt to climate change, economically and environmentally.</p>
<p>What we’re witnessing in California right now is <a href="http://mashable.com/2015/04/02/california-drought-preview-global-warming-megadrought/">a glimpse into the future</a>. California has now endured drought in <a href="http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2015/03/150304-snow-snowpack-california-drought-groundwater-crisis/">11 of the last 15 years</a>, and there’s every reason to believe <a href="http://www.slate.com/articles/technology/future_tense/2015/02/study_climate_change_may_bring_about_megadroughts_this_century.html">this is just the beginning</a>.</p>
<p>There’s a lot of debate over which atmospheric forces <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/future_tense/2014/12/09/noaa_study_asking_what_caused_california_s_drought_misses_the_point.html">kicked off</a> this particular round, but there’s little doubt that <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2015/04/02/science/california-drought-is-worsened-by-global-warming-scientists-say.html">climate change has made things worse</a>. A very warm winter pushed the state’s snowpack to a <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2015/04/03/california_drought_the_state_s_snowpack_is_a_new_record_low_by_far.html">shocking new low</a>, prompting the first-ever <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2015/04/01/california_water_restrictions_jerry_brown_takes_action_but_gives_the_agriculture.html">mandatory statewide water restrictions</a> earlier this month. But as has been <a href="http://www.sacbee.com/news/state/california/water-and-drought/article17268866.html">much-reported</a>, those new rules <a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/govbeat/wp/2015/04/03/agriculture-is-80-percent-of-water-use-in-california-why-arent-farmers-being-forced-to-cut-back/">didn’t do much</a> to stem water usage in the state’s massive agricultural sector, which currently uses about <a href="http://www.water.ca.gov/wateruseefficiency/agricultural/">80 percent</a> of California’s water supply.</p>
<p>Here’s a shocking statistic that doesn’t get enough attention: nearly one-half of California’s farms still use “flood irrigation,” <a href="http://www.newsweek.com/2014/02/14/california-farms-are-slow-adopt-water-saving-technology-245516.html">a 7,000-year-old technique</a> for watering crops. That technique is exactly what it sounds like: diverting canals to flood their fields. While that may have worked well in prehistoric Mesopotamia, irrigation technology has come a long way since then.<a></a></p>
<p>A <a href="http://pacinst.org/publication/ca-water-supply-solutions/">joint study</a> last summer by the Natural Resources Defense Council and the Oakland-based Pacific Institute found that by instituting basic modern-era water-saving technologies, like wastewater recycling, stormwater capture, drip irrigation and replacement of urban lawns with native landscaping, the state <a href="http://pacinst.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/21/2014/06/untapped-savings-infographic.jpg">could save enough water</a> to reverse its dramatic groundwater decline with loads of water left over.<a>*</a> The problem is, the state’s <a href="http://www.npr.org/blogs/thesalt/2015/04/15/398607800/redistribute-californias-water-not-without-a-fight?utm_campaign=storyshare&amp;utm_source=twitter.com&amp;utm_medium=social">antiquated system of water rights</a> isn’t giving the most wasteful farmers any incentive to change their ways.</p>
<p>When you remember that all agriculture, despite using 80 percent of the state’s water, produces only about 2 percent of the state’s GDP, it’s easy to make the case that urban water use is much more economically efficient. But then again, we have to eat, right?</p>
<p>The main questions everyone's asking, I think, are: Do I have to give up almonds? Is almond farming compatible with climate change?</p>
<p>We can imagine a water-constrained future in which groundwater pumping is enforced (no extra pumping in drought years is allowed, as it is now) and a near-zero snowpack becomes the norm. That would probably result in a permanent loss of about one-third to one-half of California's water.</p>
<p>While cities, industry, and the rest of agriculture <a href="http://www.capradio.org/46302">have become more efficient</a> in their water use, total water use for almonds has expanded rapidly over the last decade or so as almond acreage in California doubled. Almonds, too, are <a href="http://www.almonds.com/get-facts-about-almonds-and-water">using water more wisely</a>—but their explosive growth has dwarfed efficiency gains. On the other hand, total acreage for hay, including alfalfa—California’s No. 1 agricultural water user—is <a href="http://www.inkstain.net/fleck/2015/04/california-hay-acreage-down/">on a steady decline</a> as fields become more productive and dairy farmers <a href="http://www.nass.usda.gov/Statistics_by_State/California/Historical_Data/Hay-Alf.pdf">bid up the price</a> in drought years. That long-term trend of fallowing low-value crops (like hay and rice) is leaving more vacant ground for (you guessed it) more almonds.</p>
<p>California is expecting 11 million more people <a href="http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2012/04/120424142117.htm">in the next 20 years</a>—though at current rates of increasing efficiency, we can expect cities to use about the same amount of water in 2035 as now. At the same time, temperature and precipitation trends point toward an intensification of drought risk <a href="http://www.slate.com/articles/technology/future_tense/2015/02/study_climate_change_may_bring_about_megadroughts_this_century.html">for the forseeable future</a>. It’s clear California will need to do more with less, but that burden will fall almost entirely on agriculture.</p>
<p>If almonds continue to expand, at some point, it becomes a value judgment whether we want to devote 15 or 20 percent of the water in the most productive region of the United States to them. If that comes at the expense of the relatively less efficient uses like the dairy industry, <a></a>I’m all for it. But if almonds farmers challenge urban areas for water, you can bet they’ll be in for a fight.</p>
<p><em><strong>Correction, April 20, 2015:</strong> This article originally misidentified the Natural Resources Defense Council as the National Resourced Defense Council. (<a>Retrun</a>.)</em></p>Fri, 17 Apr 2015 23:17:05 GMThttp://www.slate.com/articles/business/moneybox/2015/04/almonds_in_california_they_use_up_a_lot_of_water_but_they_deserve_a_place.htmlEric Holthaus2015-04-17T23:17:05ZYes, they use up a lot of water in drought-afflicted California. But the story gets a lot more complicated from there.BusinessYes, Almonds Use a Lot of California’s Water. They’re Also a Convenient Scapegoat.100150417013Californiaclimate changeEric HolthausMoneyboxhttp://www.slate.com/articles/business/moneybox/2015/04/almonds_in_california_they_use_up_a_lot_of_water_but_they_deserve_a_place.htmlfalsefalsefalseYes, Almonds Use a Lot of California’s Water. They’re Also a Convenient Scapegoat.Yes, Almonds Use a Lot of California’s Water. They’re Also a Convenient Scapegoat.Photo by Dolores Giraldez Alonso/ShutterstockIn California, water-intensive almonds have become an easily vilified, easily visualized scapegoat.2015 Is Shaping Up to Be the Hottest Year on Recordhttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2015/04/15/_2015_is_hot_a_weirdly_warm_pacific_ocean_is_set_to_make_this_year_the_warmest.html
<p>The first three months of 2015 were the warmest start to any year on record, according to <a href="http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v3/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt">new data</a> released from NASA on Wednesday.</p>
<p>All major global temperature-tracking agencies <a href="https://twitter.com/EricHolthaus/status/588410009651847169">have ranked</a> January, February, and March 2015 as among the warmest three months on record, respectively. Collectively, those numbers mean 2015 has been record hot so far. What’s more, the last 12 months (from April 2014 to March 2015) was <a href="http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2015/04/15/3647177/nasa-hottest-start-year-record/">the warmest 12-month period on record</a>, according to the NASA data. The previous warmest 12-month period ended just last month, so don’t write this one down in your diary in ink.</p>
<p>The news comes amid <a href="http://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/details-april-enso-forecast">increasingly confident forecasts</a> that there will be a strengthening El Ni&ntilde;o for the remainder of 2015, which could spark <a href="http://www.slate.com/articles/technology/future_tense/2014/04/el_nino_2014_2015_what_the_weather_pattern_means_for_60_plus_places.html">a litany of impacts worldwide</a>, not the least of which is the more efficient transport of heat from the oceans to the atmosphere. That liberated heat from the Pacific Ocean should boost global temperatures <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2015/03/05/el_ni_o_it_s_here_and_it_will_boost_global_warming_to_record_highs.html">to never-before-recorded levels</a>, making 2015 the warmest year ever measured.</p>
<p><a href="https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/586206214553481216">Compared to last year at this time</a> (when most of the weather world, myself included, was freaking out about a coming huge El Nino, but it <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/future_tense/2014/11/06/el_ni_o_prediction_2014_why_weather_forecasters_were_wrong_about_a_super.html">didn't pan out</a>) the data looks <a href="http://blog.wsi.com/blog/energy/looking-more-deeply-into-the-ecmwf-el-nino-bias/">even more convincing now</a>.</p>
<p>In fact, off-the-charts warm water is already lurking just below the surface of the tropical Pacific Ocean:</p>
<p>Besides El Ni&ntilde;o, a more worrying, longer-term trend is also taking shape. The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) is a decades-long periodic warming of the Pacific Ocean that tends to favor bursts of accelerated global warming. As I wrote <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/future_tense/2014/10/14/pacific_decadal_oscillation_we_may_see_two_el_ni_o_years_in_a_row.html">last October</a>, the Pacific appears to be in the midst of a shift into a new warm phase that could last 20 years or so.</p>
<p>The PDO—or, “the blob” as it’s been <a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/morning-mix/wp/2015/04/10/californias-drought-and-the-weird-warm-blob-in-the-pacific-that-may-be-fueling-it/">referred to recently</a>—is starting to <a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2015/04/10/the-pacific-ocean-may-have-entered-a-new-warm-phase-and-the-consequences-could-be-dramatic/">freak out some scientists</a>. There are emerging signs of a major shift in the Pacific Ocean’s food chain, including a <a href="http://news.nationalgeographic.com/2015/04/150411-Pacific-ocean-sea-lions-birds-climate-warming-drought/">dearth of plankton</a>, tropical fish sightings <a href="http://www.adn.com/article/20140914/unusual-species-alaska-waters-indicate-parts-pacific-warming-dramatically">near Alaska</a>, and thousands of <a href="http://www.malibutimes.com/blogs/article_bd066f96-dfca-11e4-8137-57c0c6127f5a.html">starving sea lion pups</a> stranded on the California coast. As Earth’s largest ocean, what happens in the Pacific affects the weather virtually planet-wide, and that means an “<a href="http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2015/04/02/3640842/global-warming-jump-imminent/">imminent</a>” jump in global warming may have already begun—spurred on by the PDO.</p>
<p>The PDO has skyrocketed to <a href="http://research.jisao.washington.edu/pdo/PDO.latest">record-high monthly levels</a> over the past four months. In fact, there have only been four other similarly warm four-month bursts of the PDO in the last 115 years (in 1940, 1941, 1993, and 1997). A quick look at the historical record (for both 15 years prior to and 15 years after the bursts) shows that global temperatures rose at twice the rate of the 20<sup>th</sup> century average immediately after these bursts.</p>
<p>Combined with the overall long-term warming trend from climate change, the emergence of the PDO warm phase means the current state of the world’s oceans has <a href="http://www.scientificamerican.com/article/pacific-current-change-slowed-global-warming/">little precedent</a>.</p>
<p><a href="http://www.washington.edu/news/2015/04/09/warm-blob-in-pacific-ocean-linked-to-weird-weather-across-the-u-s/">A study</a> out last week connects the worsening California drought and recent spate of <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2015/02/19/freezing_cold_temperatures_hit_record_lows_in_missouri_and_kentucky.html">brutally cold winters</a> in the Northeast to the emergence of the newly warm north Pacific Ocean in 2013, with the warm waters persistently shifting weather patterns across the continent.&nbsp;</p>Wed, 15 Apr 2015 22:33:50 GMThttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2015/04/15/_2015_is_hot_a_weirdly_warm_pacific_ocean_is_set_to_make_this_year_the_warmest.htmlEric Holthaus2015-04-15T22:33:50Zbriefing2015 Is Shaping Up to Be the Hottest Year on Record227150415008el ninoglobal warmingclimate changeEric HolthausThe SlatestThe Slatesthttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2015/04/15/_2015_is_hot_a_weirdly_warm_pacific_ocean_is_set_to_make_this_year_the_warmest.htmlfalsefalsefalseSo far, 2015 is off to a record-warm start. That's only the beginning:2015 Is Shaping Up to Be the Hottest Year on RecordNASA GISSAccording to NASA, the first three months of 2015 were record warm globally.“Calmest Person Ever to Sit Thru a Tornado” Talks About His Experiencehttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2015/04/14/sam_smith_and_the_illinois_tornado_man_who_shot_the_harrowing_video_on_his.html
<p>Late Thursday afternoon Sam Smith happened to be driving from Minnesota to Indiana in a company truck. Then this happened:</p>
<p>A YouTube commenter called Smith “the calmest person ever to sit thru a tornado.” I can’t really argue with that.</p>
<p><a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2015/04/10/video_of_deadly_tornadoes_that_hit_rochelle_and_fairdale_illinois_on_thursday.html">The tornado in question</a>, which struck about 80 miles west of Chicago, was rated EF-4 by the National Weather Service, with winds estimated at 200 mph—a strength the NWS calls “quite rare” <a href="http://www.tornadohistoryproject.com/tornado/Illinois/F4/map">for the area</a>. <a href="http://thevane.gawker.com/heres-an-in-depth-look-at-the-tornado-that-destroyed-fa-1697075704">It was</a> the strongest tornado so far in 2015, and the strongest tornado in the Chicago area <a href="http://www.weather.gov/lot/15apr09">in the last 25 years</a>. It <a href="https://twitter.com/USTornadoes/status/586528495670583296">destroyed</a> parts of Rochelle and Fairdale, Illinois, causing two deaths.</p>
<p>It was also strong enough to hurtle this Smart car more than a tenth of a mile:</p>
<p>I reached out to Smith to learn more about this remarkable tornado encounter.</p>
<p>“I was on a business trip from Minneapolis to Indiana and happened upon the tornado,” Smith said. “I was not out tornado chasing. I live in North Carolina and have never encountered a tornado in my life.”</p>
<p>As you can hear in the video, Smith’s voice was eerily calm as the gigantic tornado roared just a hundred feet or so beyond his windshield. “In my defense, I was terrified inside,” Smith told me. Smith is a retired police officer, and he says his 18 years of experience prepared him for that moment. “In very tense situations, I take a deep breath.”</p>
<p>As the tornado approached, Smith called his 14-year-old son and says he tried to make peace with the fact that he may never see him again. “I felt I needed to remain calm for him.” Besides, at that point Smith figured “there’s nothing I can do but hold on.”</p>
<p>When the tornado appeared, Smith’s instinct was to back up and “get to cover” under a highway overpass. He backed up so quickly, his truck touched the bumper of another vehicle behind him, which was beneath the same overpass.</p>
<p>Next to <a href="http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/explainer/2005/11/how_to_tornadoproof_your_mobile_home.html">being in a mobile home</a>, being underneath a highway overpass is probably one of the worst places to be during a tornado, but people continue to do it. An <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xk5gvuraXzo">infamous video</a> from April 26, 1991, shows a young family in Kansas climbing an embankment to seek shelter under an overpass as a tornado passes overhead, which <a href="http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/?n=safety-overpass">many weather experts think</a> sparked a dangerous trend. The phenomenon reached a horrific peak <a href="http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/?n=safety-overpass-slide08">during a 1999 Oklahoma tornado</a>, when a woman died after seeking shelter under an overpass. There are <a href="http://www.cityofmoore.com/storm-shelters">reports</a> of people actually leaving their homes during that tornado to seek shelter under a highway overpass.</p>
<p>Beyond the potential for creating a traffic jam in a dangerous situation, parking beneath an overpass during a tornado <a href="http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/?n=safety-overpass-slide06">may actually expose your vehicle to higher winds</a>. Smith says he’s gotten an earful since Thursday about his decision to stay in his vehicle beneath the overpass as the tornado passed by just a few feet away. “I’m not stupid, but who the heck knows what to do in that situation?”</p>
<p>So what should Smith have done instead? Even the experts don’t have a firm answer. According to the <a href="http://www.spc.noaa.gov/faq/tornado/safety.html">Storm Prediction Center</a>’s tornado safety tips, “there is no safe option when caught in a tornado in a car, just slightly less-dangerous ones.” Many experts, <a href="http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/?n=safety-severe-roadsafety">including the National Weather Service</a>, recommend leaving your vehicle and seeking shelter in a nearby sturdy building, if you can find one. (Unsuspecting motorists caught between exits on a divided highway like the one Smith was on don’t have that option.) <a href="http://blogs.plos.org/retort/2013/06/05/what-not-to-do-during-a-tornado/">Some recommend</a> staying in the vehicle with the seat belt on and your head ducked down, though <a href="http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/hun/stormsurveys/2011-04-27/pictures/Cullman_Morgan_Marshall/IMG_2934_900.JPG">flying debris</a> can quickly turn a car into a pincushion. Leave your vehicle to take shelter in a nearby ditch only as a last resort—<a href="http://www.kansas.com/news/article1117116.html">people have drowned</a> while seeking shelter in ditches.</p>
<p>Smith probably did <a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2015/04/14/why-i-think-this-driver-did-the-right-thing-when-faced-with-an-ef-4-tornado/">the best he could</a>. As meteorologists <a href="http://www.weather.com/news/news/incredibly-close-call-tornado-caught-camera">were quick to point out</a>, Smith was incredibly lucky. The tornado took a last-second jog, narrowly missing the overpass where Smith was parked:</p>
<p>Asked what he would do if he could repeat the day, Smith says, “I would have tried to do everything I could have done to not be where I was.” Smith says even though he had his radio and smartphone on, he didn’t get any official warning of the tornado until after it passed. “I’m not saying I should have, the thing came up quick.”</p>
<p>Smith told me he’s been surprised at the amount of interest his video has generated, and he wishes he’d never agreed to a co-worker’s request to post the video in the first place. “I know a lot of folks are grateful to have their 15 minutes of fame. I am not that guy.”</p>Tue, 14 Apr 2015 15:12:00 GMThttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2015/04/14/sam_smith_and_the_illinois_tornado_man_who_shot_the_harrowing_video_on_his.htmlEric Holthaus2015-04-14T15:12:00Zbriefing“There’s Nothing I Can Do but Hold On”: The Man Behind the Illinois Tornado Video on His Experience227150414002tornadoEric HolthausThe SlatestThe Slatesthttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2015/04/14/sam_smith_and_the_illinois_tornado_man_who_shot_the_harrowing_video_on_his.htmlfalsefalsefalse“The calmest person ever to sit thru a tornado” talks about his experience:“There’s Nothing I Can Do but Hold On”: The Man Behind the Illinois Tornado Video on His ExperiencePhoto by Jon Durr/Getty ImagesThe tornado that destroyed most of Fairdale, Illinois, on Thursday narrowly missed an interstate overpass where Sam Smith hastily parked.Tornadoes Sweep Through Northern Illinoishttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2015/04/10/video_of_deadly_tornadoes_that_hit_rochelle_and_fairdale_illinois_on_thursday.html
<p>Northern Illinois was hit hard by tornadoes Thursday evening, in the worst outbreak of severe weather so far in 2015. Several towns about 80 miles west of Chicago suffered the worst damage.*</p>
<p>Though I’m <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/future_tense/2014/06/19/pilger_nebraska_tornado_photo_why_stormchasing_has_become_unethical.html">not a big fan of storm chasing</a>, this video, calmly taken from the side of a highway, is perhaps the best I’ve seen, capturing what it must have been like to be in Rochelle, Illinois, the largest town impacted by the storms. You can hear the town’s tornado sirens wailing eerily in the background:</p>
<p>That’s exactly the kind of sensible, hype-free weather reporting from storm chasers that helps scientists <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/future_tense/2014/04/29/tornadoes_and_drones_storm_chasers_look_to_the_future_as_severe_weather.html">without putting themselves in harm’s way</a>. (Though I still advise against storm chasing in most situations.)</p>
<p>Another video was taken a few miles north of Rochelle by audibly terrified local residents (some language understandably NSFW):</p>
<p>As the tornado moved northward, it also swept through tiny Fairdale, Illinois, <a href="http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/local/breaking/chi-chicago-weather-20150409-story.html#page=1">with devastating consequences</a>, including at least one death:</p>
<p>Meteorologists from the National Weather Service office in Chicago <a href="https://twitter.com/NWSChicago/status/586510687909740544">are on the scene</a> Friday morning in a routine attempt to gauge the strength and path of the tornado, and said there could have been more than one. The Weather Channel has speculated that the tornado that hit Fairdale may be the strongest in Northern Illinois <a href="http://www.weather.com/storms/tornado/news/fairdale-illinois-tornado-rare-intensity">in nearly 50 years</a>. The National Weather Service will determine an official intensity estimate (and post it <a href="http://www.weather.gov/lot/15apr09">here</a>), likely on Friday.</p>
<p>The Rochelle tornado was <a href="http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/150409_rpts.html">one of more than 30</a> that have been reported across seven states over the past three days. April has been a bit more active than March, which had <a href="http://www.spc.noaa.gov/wcm/2015/wwinfo.html">a record-setting slow start</a> when it comes to severe weather.</p>
<p>What’s important is that Thursday night’s tornado(es) were extremely well forecast: A tornado watch was issued <a href="http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0041.html">five hours in advance</a>, including for the entire Chicagoland area, and a warning was issued for Rochelle <a href="http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KLOT/1504092335.wfus53.html">about 20 minutes before</a> the tornado struck. A large-scale environment favorable for severe weather, especially tornadoes, was anticipated at least six days in advance:</p>
<p>Weather scientists are actually getting to the point where they’re wondering if people sometimes have <a href="https://medium.com/@WXGeeksTWC/too-much-lead-time-for-tornadoes-new-outlooks-let-s-ask-experts-at-noaa-spc-828e6b25c30d"><em>too much</em> warning for tornadoes</a>, which may be giving rise to extremely unsafe behaviors like attempting to outrun the storm by car (as was unfortunately popularized in the <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/future_tense/2014/08/08/into_the_storm_review_tornado_movie_shows_dangerous_storm_chasing.html">recent dud of a disaster movie</a> <em><a href="http://www.amazon.com/dp/B00MJANW40/?tag=slatmaga-20">Into the Storm</a></em>).</p>
<p>Another round of severe weather is possible <a href="https://twitter.com/EricHolthaus/status/586547773350092800">across the Southeast</a> on Friday from the same storm system that produced the Illinois tornadoes. There’s a heightened risk of tornadoes especially for the Baltimore, Maryland to Washington, D.C., to Richmond, Virginia area. Though the <a href="https://twitter.com/EricHolthaus/status/586547364531286016">absolute risk is low</a>, it is about 20 times greater than <a href="http://www.spc.noaa.gov/new/SVRclimo/climo.php?parm=allTorn">on a typical April 10</a>.</p>
<p><strong>Update, 1:55 p.m. Eastern</strong>: The Storm Prediction Center has boosted the odds of a tornado on Friday in the Washington, D.C., to Richmond, Virginia, area to &quot;five percent within 25 miles of a point.&quot; Even though 5 percent may not sound like a lot, that's <a href="https://twitter.com/EricHolthaus/status/586571602071949313">about 50 times greater</a> than on a typical April 10. &nbsp;</p>
<p><em><strong>*Correction, April 10, 2015:&nbsp;</strong>This post originally misstated that the worst-hit towns during Thursday's tornadoes were located about 80 miles east of Chicago. They are located about 80 miles west of Chicago.</em></p>Fri, 10 Apr 2015 16:28:00 GMThttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2015/04/10/video_of_deadly_tornadoes_that_hit_rochelle_and_fairdale_illinois_on_thursday.htmlEric Holthaus2015-04-10T16:28:00ZbriefingTornadoes Sweep Through Northern Illinois (Video)227150410005tornadoEric HolthausThe SlatestThe Slatesthttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2015/04/10/video_of_deadly_tornadoes_that_hit_rochelle_and_fairdale_illinois_on_thursday.htmlfalsefalsefalseThursday's tornado was possibly the strongest in northern Illinois in nearly 50 years (VIDEO):Tornadoes Sweep Through Northern Illinois (Video)Photo by Jon Durr/Getty ImagesCrews search for unaccounted people in Fairdale, Illinois, on Friday, the morning after a tornado swept through.Meteorologists Steaming After Hurricane Research Funding Is Slashedhttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2015/04/08/the_u_s_government_has_cut_funding_to_a_key_hurricane_research_program_and.html
<p>An ongoing, largely successful effort to accelerate improvements in hurricane forecasts has been cut significantly, and meteorologists aren’t happy about it.</p>
<p>The Hurricane Forecast Improvement Program is a 10-year initiative that launched in 2010, and it’s designed to enhance scientists’ ability to anticipate rapid fluctuations in track and intensity for tropical cyclones, which routinely rank among the costliest and <a href="http://www.nws.noaa.gov/om/hazstats.shtml">deadliest</a> storms <a href="http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/drr/transfer/2014.06.12-WMO1123_Atlas_120614.pdf">on Earth</a>. In its first five years, HFIP has produced a state-of-the-art hurricane forecast model that’s helped to improve hurricane forecast accuracy by 20 percent since 2010, among other achievements. That’s amazing progress, essentially making a five-day forecast as accurate as a two-day forecast was <a href="http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/verification/pdfs/Verification_2014.pdf">just 10 years ago</a>.</p>
<p>Now, the program is apparently a victim of its own success. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration cut the program’s base funding for the current fiscal year by about two-thirds, to $4.8 million from $13 million, in an attempt to refocus on “immediate, key needs” rather than longer-term goals.* Because of the cut, <a href="http://www.corporateservices.noaa.gov/~nbo/fy15_bluebook/NOAA_FY15_CJ_508%20compliant.pdf">NOAA estimates</a> that it will have to scuttle a target to further double the accuracy of two-day intensity forecasts from current levels over the next three to four years.</p>
<p>The cut was announced at the National Hurricane Conference in Austin, Texas, last week and <a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2015/04/07/funding-for-promising-hurricane-forecast-improvement-program-slashed/">was first reported</a> by the <em>Washington Post</em>’s Jason Samenow on Tuesday</p>
<p>Chris Vaccaro, a representative for the National Weather Service, confirmed to <strong><em>Slate</em></strong> the cut will affect HFIP for the remainder of the 2015 fiscal year, which runs through Sept. 30. But despite the significant cut, Vaccaro says the program isn’t dead and is still producing useful science.</p>
<p>“It’s important to emphasize that there is still funding for HFIP, work is still being done and advancements will continue to be made,” Vaccaro said.</p>
<p>In 2015 the program’s hurricane forecast model is actually getting an upgrade, though the program’s partnerships with university scientists may take a hit. Vaccaro also notes HFIP has access to an additional pot of $4 million this year for supercomputing resources, which wasn’t affected by the cut.</p>
<p>But HFIP would have had access to that money anyway, so it doesn’t really make up for the $8 million in cuts. That’s alarming. On average, hurricanes are <a href="https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/billions/summary-stats">the costliest storms</a> in the United States and in <a href="http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/deadlyworld.asp">many parts of the world</a>, routinely killing hundreds or thousands of people in a single day. Disaster deaths are in a long-term decline in the United States and around the world, thanks in part to programs like HFIP—an incredible feat, considering more and more people <a href="http://reliefweb.int/report/world/human-cost-natural-disasters-2015-global-perspective">are moving into harm’s way</a>. As a result of the cuts, NOAA says warnings and evacuations will be less precise, a considerable inconvenience and cost to the economy. <a href="https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/billions/time-series">With billions of dollars on the line</a>, it’s hard to figure how it makes sense to save $8 million with this move.</p>
<p>Hurricane-focused meteorologists say the most disheartening thing about the budget cut to HFIP is that NOAA is giving up on longer-term goals. Of the dozen or so meteorologists I contacted, reactions included shock and incredulity:</p>
<p>Eric Blake, a forecaster at NOAA’s National Hurricane Center: “It’s hard to believe this is a good program to slash funding when it appears to be working. I understand budget tightening, but a cut of two-thirds seems extreme.”</p>
<p>Kerry Emanuel, hurricane researcher at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology: “I do not know what kind of politics is responsible for this, but the decision clearly does not serve the interests of our country.”</p>
<p>Marshall Shepherd, past president of the American Meteorological Society and host of <em>WX Geeks</em> on the Weather Channel: “Shocking ... undeniably hurricane track improvement translates to lives and dollars saved. It is shortsighted to stunt this progress and hinder potential improvement in intensity forecasts. We can't continue to be a culture that cuts progress, then panics only after a horrific tragedy.” Shepherd is referring here to <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/future_tense/2015/01/05/national_weather_service_announces_a_ten_fold_boost_in_supercomputer_power.html">a recent significant increase</a> in funding for NOAA supercomputers after the National Weather Service forecasts for Hurricane Sandy were seen as lacking in accuracy.</p>
<p>Nate Johnson, a TV meteorologist in North Carolina, <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/future_tense/2014/07/03/hurricane_arthur_liveblog_what_the_storm_means_for_your_fourth_of_july.html">the last state</a> to experience a hurricane landfall: “The cuts are disappointing, especially since the program has already led to improved forecasts, with the promise of continued improvement. I can’t help but wonder if the recent drought in Atlantic hurricanes contributed to a sense we don’t need to invest in improving forecasts for future storms.”</p>
<p>As of Wednesday there hasn’t been a major hurricane landfall (defined as a Category 3 or greater) in the United States <a href="http://www.climatecentral.org/news/no-major-hurricane-hit-u.s.-in-9-years-18424">for a record 3,453 days</a>—nearly 10 years. With a building El Ni&ntilde;o in the Pacific, which typically brings weak Atlantic hurricane seasons, that streak has a good chance of continuing this year.</p>
<p>But surging coastal populations <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/future_tense/2014/09/04/hurricane_season_2014_has_produced_very_few_storms_so_far.html">in places like Miami</a> as well as steadily rising sea levels are combining to set the stage for an eventual calamity.</p>
<p>Call it complacency or an unfortunate consequence of a tight budgetary environment, but programs like HFIP are exactly the opposite of what we should be cutting.</p>
<p><em><strong>*Correction, April 8, 2015:</strong> This post incorrectly misstated the base funding for HFIP was cut by more than two-thirds. The budget was cut from $13 million to $4.8 million, which works out to 63.1 percent, which is slightly less than two-thirds.</em></p>Wed, 08 Apr 2015 21:17:10 GMThttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2015/04/08/the_u_s_government_has_cut_funding_to_a_key_hurricane_research_program_and.htmlEric Holthaus2015-04-08T21:17:10ZbriefingMeteorologists Steaming After Hurricane Research Funding Is Slashed227150408008hurricanesnoaanational weather serviceEric HolthausThe SlatestThe Slatesthttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2015/04/08/the_u_s_government_has_cut_funding_to_a_key_hurricane_research_program_and.htmlfalsefalsefalseMeteorologists are angry (angry!) after a key hurricane research program gets a hefty budget cut:Meteorologists Steaming After Hurricane Research Funding Is SlashedPhoto by Joe Raedle/Getty ImagesHurricane specialist John Cangialosi keeps an eye on the path of Tropical Storm Andrea at the National Hurricane Center on June 6, 2013, in Miami.Poll: Americans Don’t Think Climate Change Will Affect Them Personallyhttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2015/04/06/new_climate_change_poll_shows_americans_believe_in_global_warming.html
<p>On Monday, researchers from Yale and Utah State University unveiled a new statistical technique that allows an in-depth accounting of Americans’ attitudes toward global warming. <a href="http://environment.yale.edu/poe/v2014/">The resulting maps</a>—down to the county level—reveal some interesting takeaways.</p>
<p>First, Americans overwhelmingly agree that global warming is happening. Out of 3,143 total counties in the United States, majorities of just 39 counties disagree. That means nearly 99 percent of all counties in the country “believe in” global warming—with the holdouts confined to deeply conservative places like Limestone County, Alabama, or coal-producing Putnam County, West Virginia. That aligns broadly with <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/future_tense/2015/01/21/senate_votes_that_climate_change_is_real_but_doesn_t_agree_on_cause.html">a recent 98-1 Senate vote</a> that global warming is real and “not a hoax.” The lone holdout in that vote was Mississippi Sen. Roger Wicker.</p>
<p>Looking at the science, perhaps climate denial in Mississippi and Alabama can be expected: According to <a href="http://nca2014.globalchange.gov/report/our-changing-climate/recent-us-temperature-trends#graphic-16683">the recent National Climate Assessment</a>, they’re the only two states that haven’t warmed significantly over the last two decades.</p>
<p>But the basic fact of rising temperatures is about the only point where public opinion matches the science. The new data also show that a majority of U.S. counties remain unconvinced that global warming is caused “mostly by human activities.” Majorities in a whopping 2,717 of 3,143 counties (nearly 80 percent) disagree with that sentiment, among them the liberal bastions of Brooklyn, New York, and Prince George’s County, Maryland. (Technically, these county-level data are estimates of public opinion based on <a href="http://environment.yale.edu/climate-communication/article/yale-climate-opinion-maps/">statistical extrapolation</a> from demographic data and 12 national surveys over the last seven years. At the county level, the result has a margin of error of +/- 8 percentage points.)</p>
<p>The most recent report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the world’s most highly regarded body of climate scientists, was emphatic on this point, saying it is now “<a href="http://qz.com/129122/the-worlds-best-scientists-agree-on-our-current-path-global-warming-is-irreversible-and-getting-worse/">extremely likely</a>” that humanity is the dominant cause of global warming. The new polling data show Americans seem unconvinced by scientists in general, with majorities of 3,061 of 3,143 counties (more than 97 percent, including Mendocino County, California, and Bergen County, New Jersey) disagreeing with the statement that “most scientists think global warming is happening.” In fact, <a href="http://climate.nasa.gov/scientific-consensus/">97 percent of climate scientists believe climate change is real</a>.</p>
<p>A lot of this disconnect between public opinion and scientific consensus can probably be traced back to the intense politicization of climate science in recent years, <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/mar/25/fossil-fuel-firms-are-still-bankrolling-climate-denial-lobby-groups">funded largely by interests within the fossil fuel industry</a>. Climate change is now the <a href="http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2014/05/27/3441360/climate-change-controversy/">single most polarizing issue</a> in America.</p>
<p>That’s clearly shown in the new poll’s assessment of how Americans feel about the risks associated with global warming: Residents of more than half of U.S. counties aren’t worried about climate change (1,951 of 3,143, or about 62 percent, including Santa Rosa, Florida, and Ashland County, Wisconsin). Worse: There wasn’t even one county in which a majority of respondents believe global warming will harm them personally. In sharp contrast, majorities in 3,122 of 3,143 counties (more than 99 percent) do agree that future generations are at risk, with those responding in the affirmative hailing from places like Sheridan County, Wyoming—in the heart of coal country.</p>
<p>Despite the fact that Americans seems to think of global warming as an issue that will affect mostly future generations, they also realize it requires current efforts to address. Americans are still firmly committed to action on climate change right now, the new polling data suggests. Respondents seemed to strongly prefer “big government” solutions focused on increased regulation and executive action, and are lukewarm to market-based policies like a revenue-neutral carbon tax.</p>
<p>From the new poll:</p>
<p>-Every single county believes we should fund research into renewable energy.</p>
<p>-Every single county believes we should regulate CO<sub>2</sub> as a pollutant.</p>
<p>-Nearly 95 percent of counties (2,977 of 3,143) agreed with “strict CO<sub>2</sub> limits on existing coal-fired power plants.”</p>
<p>-Nearly 99 percent of counties (3,104 of 3,143) agreed with a requirement that utilities should produce 20 percent of electricity from renewable sources.</p>
<p>There’s a lot of optimism to be found in these results: Americans are largely willing to take action on climate change, even if they think it won’t affect them personally. Heading into a major election year, that’s something to be encouraged about.</p>Mon, 06 Apr 2015 22:24:00 GMThttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2015/04/06/new_climate_change_poll_shows_americans_believe_in_global_warming.htmlEric Holthaus2015-04-06T22:24:00ZbriefingPoll: Americans Don’t Think Climate Change Will Affect Them Personally227150406008climate changeglobal warmingpollsEric HolthausThe SlatestThe Slatesthttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2015/04/06/new_climate_change_poll_shows_americans_believe_in_global_warming.htmlfalsefalsefalseNew poll shows Americans' overwhelming belief in climate change and desire for action [MAPS]:Poll: Americans Don’t Think Climate Change Will Affect Them PersonallyPhoto by Joe Raedle/Getty ImagesA large majority of Americans believe in global warming and are ready to take action, according to new polling data. Here, the outerbands of Hurricane Sandy are felt on Oct. 24, 2012 in Miami.This Is What a Megadrought Looks Likehttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2015/04/03/california_drought_the_state_s_snowpack_is_a_new_record_low_by_far.html
<p>Humans living in California have struggled with drought for millennia, but this year’s drought is different.</p>
<p>Snowpack measurements taken this week were <a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2015/03/31/california-snowpack-fades-to-shocking-record-low/">far lower</a> than anything ever measured before—containing about 80 percent less water than last year’s peak, which at the time was also a record low. More than half of <a href="http://cdec.water.ca.gov/cgi-progs/snow/COURSES">all locations surveyed</a> this week in the California mountains had no snow on the ground at all—139 out of 225 measurements, as of Friday morning.</p>
<p>The photo slider below <a href="http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/IOTD/view.php?id=85632">compares</a> California’s current snowpack with the last near-normal year, 2010. (Most of the white in the 2015 image is clouds, especially over Nevada.)</p>
<p>On Wednesday, Gov. Jerry Brown enacted <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2015/04/01/california_water_restrictions_jerry_brown_takes_action_but_gives_the_agriculture.html">the state’s first mandatory water restrictions</a>, though they apply primarily to cities, not the water-intensive agriculture industry. The state normally draws about 30 percent of its water resources from summertime snowmelt, but not this year.</p>
<p><a href="http://mashable.com/2015/04/02/california-drought-preview-global-warming-megadrought/">Many scientists</a> now believe <a href="http://www.slate.com/articles/technology/future_tense/2015/02/study_climate_change_may_bring_about_megadroughts_this_century.html">a megadrought</a>—an intense drought lasting longer than two decades—<a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/future_tense/2015/03/20/california_megadrought_it_s_already_begun.html">has already begun</a>. Eleven of the last 15 years have been abnormally dry across the West. With the added boost of global warming, parts of California are slowly being transformed <a href="http://www.slate.com/articles/technology/future_tense/2014/10/california_central_valley_agriculture_drought_and_climate_change_photos.html">into a desiccated wasteland</a>.</p>
<p>If this year’s snowpack is any indication, California’s water woes are just beginning.</p>Fri, 03 Apr 2015 15:12:00 GMThttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2015/04/03/california_drought_the_state_s_snowpack_is_a_new_record_low_by_far.htmlEric Holthaus2015-04-03T15:12:00ZbriefingThis Is What a Megadrought Looks Like227150403004thirsty westcalifornia droughtglobal warmingclimate changeEric HolthausThe SlatestThe Slatesthttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2015/04/03/california_drought_the_state_s_snowpack_is_a_new_record_low_by_far.htmlfalsefalsefalseStunning before/after NASA images show just how little snow California has left:This Is What a Megadrought Looks LikePhoto by Max Whittaker/Getty ImagesCalifornia Gov. Jerry Brown speaks to reporters at the site of a manual snow survey on April 1, 2015, in Phillips, California, near Lake Tahoe. The recorded level there was zero, the lowest ever measured.Arabian Sandstorm Makes Dubai Look Like Marshttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2015/04/02/a_massive_duststorm_hit_dubai_and_the_arabian_peninsula_on_thursday_photo.html
<p>An impressive sandstorm whipped across the Arabian Peninsula on Thursday, sending a sea of red-hued dust across the desert and towards the major economic hubs of the Persian Gulf. The storm’s strong winds were caused by a high pressure center that shifted offshore.</p>
<p>The <em>National</em>, a government-owned English newspaper in the United Arab Emirates, <a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2015/04/02/wicked-sandstorm-whips-through-dubai-uae-arabian-peninsula/">reported</a> 135 traffic accidents and 1,600 calls to local emergency services due to decreased visibility—about a quarter-mile at the height of the storm. Flights were delayed and diverted at Dubai’s airport, one of the world’s busiest. The UAE public health authority warned people with asthma to stay indoors. Schools in Qatar were closed <a href="http://www.emirates247.com/news/emirates/sandstorm-forces-qatar-saudi-to-shut-schools-what-s-uae-s-status-2015-04-02-1.586197">due to</a> “extreme weather conditions.”</p>
<p>Dust storms are common in the region, but this one was apparently of unusual severity. The UAE’s National Center of Meteorology and Seismology warned that it could continue through the weekend.</p>
<p>So what accounts for such a big storm? The relationship between dust storm behavior and climate change is a still a very uncertain science, but a <a href="http://www.researchgate.net/publication/232251240_Dust_storms_over_the_Arabian_Gulf_a_possible_indicator_of_climate_changes_consequences">2011 study</a> found a “shift in characteristics of dust storms in the Arabian Gulf,” including a recent change in mineral composition, as a sign of changing wind patterns. <a href="http://www.giss.nasa.gov/research/briefs/miller_01/">Previous research</a> has shown that regardless of climate change, up to half of all atmospheric dust is directly attributable to human activity, including agriculture, overgrazing, and deforestation.</p>Thu, 02 Apr 2015 21:30:00 GMThttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2015/04/02/a_massive_duststorm_hit_dubai_and_the_arabian_peninsula_on_thursday_photo.htmlEric Holthaus2015-04-02T21:30:00ZbriefingArabian Sandstorm Makes Dubai Look Like Mars (Photos)227150402007climate changeweathermiddle eastEric HolthausThe SlatestThe Slatesthttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2015/04/02/a_massive_duststorm_hit_dubai_and_the_arabian_peninsula_on_thursday_photo.htmlfalsefalsefalseStunning images of a Dubai sandstorm reveal a Mars-like scene [PHOTOS]:Arabian Sandstorm Makes Dubai Look Like Mars (Photos)Photo by Ahmed Jadallah/ReutersA man walks during a sand storm in Dubai April 2, 2015.Siberia’s Permafrost Is Exploding. Is Alaska’s Next?http://www.slate.com/blogs/future_tense/2015/04/02/exploding_methane_holes_in_siberia_linked_to_climate_change_is_alaska_next.html
<p>Temperatures are warming faster in the Arctic than anywhere else on Earth, at <a href="http://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/227546-arctic-temperatures-rising-twice-as-fast-as-the-rest-of-the-world">twice the rate of the global average</a>. In northern Canada, it hasn’t been this warm in <a href="http://www.scientificamerican.com/article/arctic-warming-unprecedented-in-last-44000-years/">at least 44,000 years</a>, according to our best estimates.</p>
<p>That means weird things are starting to happen. Last summer, <a href="http://siberiantimes.com/science/casestudy/news/first-pictures-from-inside-the-crater-at-the-end-of-the-world/">giant mysterious craters</a> discovered by reindeer herders in a remote section of northern Siberia <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/future_tense/2014/07/23/two_weird_holes_in_siberia_are_they_related_to_climate_change_video.html">captured the world’s attention</a>. Upon closer inspection, it was obvious these craters formed recently with some explosive force behind them. Since then, there have been further scientific excursions to the craters, including this one in November:</p>
<p>According to measurements made by Russian scientists, methane concentration at the bottom of one of the holes was <a href="http://www.nature.com/news/mysterious-siberian-crater-attributed-to-methane-1.15649">thousands of times higher</a> than in the regular atmosphere. A <a href="http://siberiantimes.com/science/casestudy/news/n0127-dozens-of-mysterious-new-craters-suspected-in-northern-russia/">more thorough recent expedition</a> identified “dozens” of new holes, all of which apparently formed in the last year or two.</p>
<p>The Siberian holes draw into question the near-term stability of Arctic permafrost, which traps <a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2015/04/01/the-arctic-climate-threat-that-nobodys-even-talking-about-yet/?postshare=7861427976928247">enough carbon, if fully unleashed, to double atmospheric concentrations</a> and potentially push global warming into <a href="http://www.climatecentral.org/news/arctic-methane-emissions-certain-to-trigger-warming-17374">a frightening new phase</a>. Scientists are quite certain it will take <a href="http://www.climatecentral.org/blogs/melting-permafrost-will-boost-temps-but-not-much-this-century-15083">at least a century</a> for that to happen in a worst-case scenario, but it’s clear that the release has already begun.</p>
<p>A <a href="http://iopscience.iop.org/1748-9326/9/8/085003/pdf/1748-9326_9_8_085003.pdf">recent study</a> estimated continued warming would produce an additional 35-205 billon tons of carbon emissions (about 2-10 percent of current global totals) from permafrost by 2100. The wide range reflects how little we still know about the response of permafrost to increased temperatures. Since the permafrost thaw is <a href="http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2013/10/08/alaska-sinks--climate-change-thaws-permafrost/2794255/">already in progress</a>, it could be difficult to slow down: Even a sharp cutback in emissions from cities and cars may only be able to cut those numbers in half. With the atmosphere <a href="http://www.wri.org/blog/2014/03/visualizing-global-carbon-budget">only able to hold another 400 billion tons or so</a> before we’re committed to a rise in global temperatures of more than 2 degree Celsius, the point after which “<a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg3/en/ch1s1-2-2.html">dangerous</a>” impacts become much more likely.</p>
<p>Katey Walter Anthony, of the University of Alaska Fairbanks, has been measuring methane seeps in Arctic lakes in Alaska, Canada, and Russia for about a decade. Her estimates show that global atmospheric methane concentrations could increase tenfold in the coming years. She explained her research in a 2010 video, in which she ignited a few of the bubbles, resulting in an impressive ball of flame:</p>
<p>I spoke with her colleague, Vladimir Romanovsky, who was a co-author on the study that quantified the amount of carbon that may be released from permafrost this century. Romanovsky believes the Siberian holes are an example of a new type of Arctic landform that has never been seen before.</p>
<p>“The warming has started to decompose the gas hydrates,” Romanovsky told <strong><em>Slate</em></strong>. “The pressure increased so high that it actually erupted the material out of the hole.” The Siberian craters are found in a primary area of industrial natural gas extraction. “It’s still much more questions than answers at this point,” he said. “For all my 40 years of studying permafrost, I’ve never read about these kinds of things. Nobody knows any examples of these happening in the past.”</p>
<p>Could the same thing happen in Alaska? Romanovsky says yes. “At this point, I would say it is possible. There are several candidate places in Alaska or in Northwest Canada.”</p>
<p>Charles Miller, a permafrost scientist with NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory, disagrees slightly with Romanovsky. According to Miller, whose work has focused on <a href="http://www.jpl.nasa.gov/news/news.php?release=2013-197">collecting aircraft measurements</a> of the amount of methane currently being released from North American permafrost, the Siberian holes are more likely to be formed as a result of a more well-established landform <a href="http://www.alaskacenters.gov/permafrost.cfm#CP_JUMP_17706">called a pingo</a>. “If one looks back at the older [satellite] images of the same locations, these pingos were at the exact same locations.”</p>
<p>But Miller does agree they could happen in Alaska. On his flights over the Alaskan and Canadian Arctic, Miller says the landscape is littered with pingos. “In principle, the same mechanisms [as the exploding Siberian holes] might be able to operate in Alaska.”</p>Thu, 02 Apr 2015 18:53:00 GMThttp://www.slate.com/blogs/future_tense/2015/04/02/exploding_methane_holes_in_siberia_linked_to_climate_change_is_alaska_next.htmlEric Holthaus2015-04-02T18:53:00ZTechnologySiberia’s Permafrost Is Exploding. Is Alaska’s Next?203150402004global warmingclimate changeEric HolthausFuture TenseFuture Tensehttp://www.slate.com/blogs/future_tense/2015/04/02/exploding_methane_holes_in_siberia_linked_to_climate_change_is_alaska_next.htmlfalsefalsefalseYikes! Exploding Siberian permafrost may be coming to Alaska next:Siberia’s Permafrost Is Exploding. Is Alaska’s Next?1519028538001AQ~~,AAAAAASoY90~,_gW1ZHvKG_1U0LqDiRqg6y9siD7-Z_bO41498022490011519028538001AQ~~,AAAAAASoY90~,_gW1ZHvKG_1U0LqDiRqg6y9siD7-Z_bO41498022490011519028538001AQ~~,AAAAAASoY90~,_gW1ZHvKG_1U0LqDiRqg6y9siD7-Z_bO41498022490011519028538001AQ~~,AAAAAASoY90~,_gW1ZHvKG_1U0LqDiRqg6y9siD7-Z_bO41498022490011519028538001AQ~~,AAAAAASoY90~,_gW1ZHvKG_1U0LqDiRqg6y9siD7-Z_bO41498022490011519028538001AQ~~,AAAAAASoY90~,_gW1ZHvKG_1U0LqDiRqg6y9siD7-Z_bO41499209310011519028538001AQ~~,AAAAAASoY90~,_gW1ZHvKG_1U0LqDiRqg6y9siD7-Z_bO41499209310011519028538001AQ~~,AAAAAASoY90~,_gW1ZHvKG_1U0LqDiRqg6y9siD7-Z_bO41499209310011519028538001AQ~~,AAAAAASoY90~,_gW1ZHvKG_1U0LqDiRqg6y9siD7-Z_bO4149920931001Photo by VASILY BOGOYAVLENSKY/AFP/Getty ImagesOne of the dozens of newly discovered craters on the Yamal Peninsula in northern Siberia, as seen on August 25, 2014.&nbsp;California Imposes First-Ever Mandatory Water Restrictions. They’re Not Nearly Enough.http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2015/04/01/california_water_restrictions_jerry_brown_takes_action_but_gives_the_agriculture.html
<p>On Wednesday, California Gov. Jerry Brown <a href="http://gov.ca.gov/news.php?id=18910">announced a historic statewide effort</a> to restrict water use amid new measurements showing the state’s snowpack at stunning record lows. Unfortunately, the new rules mostly ignore the state’s biggest water user: the agriculture industry.</p>
<p>“We are standing on dry grass where there should be five feet of snow,” said Brown, <a href="http://www.latimes.com/local/political/la-me-pc-jerry-brown-snowpack-announcement-20150331-story.html">who traveled</a> to an official snowpack monitoring station near Lake Tahoe to make the announcement.</p>
<p>Brown’s <a href="http://gov.ca.gov/docs/4.1.15_Executive_Order.pdf">new executive order</a> cracks down primarily on urban water usage, mandating a 25 percent reduction by February 2016 from the amount used in 2013. The new rules focus on lawns and golf courses, which use <a href="http://www.dailynews.com/general-news/20150303/although-southern-californians-conserve-more-water-urban-areas-open-faucet">about half</a> of urban water in California, and set a target to replace 50 million square feet of lawns with native landscaping within the next year. By cracking down on lawns and expanding existing technology <a href="http://www.slate.com/articles/technology/future_tense/2014/06/desalination_vs_purification_why_californians_will_soon_drink_their_own.html">like water recycling</a>, urban areas should easily be able to meet the new restrictions. In an average year, urban areas and industry use only about 20 percent of the state’s water resources, with agriculture using the rest.</p>
<p>Brown’s unprecedented actions are surely necessary, and welcome, but they don’t go far enough. For one, the only new “requirement” for the state’s agriculture industry is a reminder to submit reports on groundwater usage, which <a href="http://www.water.ca.gov/groundwater/casgem/">was already required</a>. (Most irrigation districts <a href="http://www.nrdc.org/water/ca-agricultural-water-planning.asp">have been ignoring</a> the requirement in recent years.)</p>
<p>The state’s snowpack, which typically peaks on April 1 before the summer runoff season, was measured at a record low on Wednesday—<a href="https://twitter.com/EricHolthaus/status/583350241874690048">just 5 percent</a> of the historical average. The <a href="https://twitter.com/h2oexecutive/status/583274069966987266">last record low</a>—25 percent of the historic average—was set just last year, in a tie with 1977.</p>
<p>In addition to a record-low snowpack in the Sierras, 2015 is shaping up to be among the <a href="https://twitter.com/Weather_West/status/583333337906827264">hottest</a> and <a href="https://twitter.com/NWSBayArea/status/582645228844122113">driest</a> years in state history. Temperatures <a href="https://twitter.com/NWSLosAngeles/status/577574492836220928">have been in the 90s</a> in Southern California for most of March, more typical of late August.</p>
<p>In an email to <strong><em>Slate</em></strong>, the state’s snow survey chief, Dave Rizzardo, called the snowpack reading “scary,” saying “we’ve obliterated the record.” In a typical year, the state’s snowpack supplies about 30 percent of statewide water usage. This year there will be barely a trickle in mountain streams, leading to <a href="http://blogs.kqed.org/science/2015/03/31/record-low-sierra-snowpack-will-drive-home-drought-impacts/">profound impacts statewide</a>. In a conference call with reporters, Rizzardo said that one or more reservoirs in the central and southern Sierra range—the part of the state hardest-hit this winter—may go completely dry this year.</p>
<p>Though California’s agriculture industry is <a href="http://farmwater.org/farm-water-news/another-zero-water-allocation-valley-farms-unemployment-food-lines-californias-food-basket/">also feeling the drought’s pinch</a>—hundreds of thousands of acres of farmland have gone unsown, and thousands of jobs have been lost in the last year—the industry is still mostly getting its way. This year almond farming is using <a href="http://www.motherjones.com/environment/2015/01/california-drought-almonds-water-use">more water than ever</a>—<a href="https://twitter.com/EricHolthaus/status/583360796454830080">about 11 percent</a> of the statewide supply devoted to agriculture—<a href="http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2014/09/140917-california-groundwater-law-drought-central-valley-environment-science/">while lobbying</a> to weaken groundwater legislation.</p>
<p>As I’ve written previously, <a href="http://www.slate.com/articles/technology/future_tense/2014/10/california_central_valley_agriculture_drought_and_climate_change_photos.html">wasteful agriculture</a> is <a href="https://twitter.com/Mdettinger/status/575355965903478784">literally sucking California dry</a>. Once devoid of water, depleted aquifers frequently collapse, resulting in <a href="http://www.mercurynews.com/drought/ci_25447586/california-drought-san-joaquin-valley-sinking-farmers-race">sinking ground levels</a> and a <a href="https://water.usgs.gov/edu/earthgwlandsubside.html">permanent reduction</a> in water storage capacity. <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/future_tense/2014/09/03/california_s_new_groundwater_legislation_is_unfair_but_necessary.html">New laws</a> aimed to stop the overexploitation of groundwater won’t be enforced <a href="http://www.gov.ca.gov/news.php?id=18701">until 2040</a>. The governor should have sped up that timeline as part of his suite of mandatory cutbacks. And lest you think he can’t, because of his state’s bottom line: In exchange for 80 percent of the state’s water, agriculture is producing <a href="http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2015/03/30/how-growers-gamed-california-s-drought.html?via=desktop&amp;source=twitter">only 2 percent</a> of state GDP.</p>Wed, 01 Apr 2015 20:58:00 GMThttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2015/04/01/california_water_restrictions_jerry_brown_takes_action_but_gives_the_agriculture.htmlEric Holthaus2015-04-01T20:58:00ZbriefingCalifornia Imposes First-Ever Mandatory Water Restrictions, but Gives the Agriculture Industry a Pass227150401008californiacalifornia droughtdroughtEric HolthausThe SlatestThe Slatesthttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2015/04/01/california_water_restrictions_jerry_brown_takes_action_but_gives_the_agriculture.htmlfalsefalsefalseCalifornia imposes first-ever mandatory water restrictions, but gives agriculture industry a pass:California Imposes First-Ever Mandatory Water Restrictions, but Gives the Agriculture Industry a PassPhoto by Justin Sullivan/Getty ImagesThe lawn in front of the California State Capitol is seen dead on June 18, 2014, in Sacramento, California, amid an effort to conserve water.New U.S. Climate Targets Are Letting the World Downhttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2015/03/31/u_s_climate_targets_in_advance_of_paris_agreement_the_obama_administration.html
<p>On Tuesday, the U.S. <a href="http://newsroom.unfccc.int/unfccc-newsroom/united-states-submits-its-climate-action-plan-ahead-of-2015-paris-agreement/">submitted</a> its first-ever official, internationally recognized plan to limit greenhouse gas emissions beyond 2020. Problem is, it’s pretty much just a retread of the path the U.S. is already on, which isn’t enough to keep global warming from crossing the “<a href="http://www.carbonbrief.org/blog/2014/12/two-degrees-will-we-avoid-dangerous-climate-change/">dangerous</a>” two degree Celsius threshold—a point above which scientific consensus paints an increasingly bleak future, with global impacts capable of <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/future_tense/2014/03/30/ipcc_2014_u_n_climate_change_report_warns_of_dire_consequences.html">destabilizing human society</a>.</p>
<p>As the country with the greatest historical responsibility for climate change, the U.S. was expected to increase its ambition in the run up to the important UN climate negotiations in Paris later this year. As it turns out, the U.S. believes it already has done <a href="http://www.carbonbrief.org/blog/2015/03/us-climate-pledge-promises-to-push-for-maximum-ambition/">as much as it can</a>. The Obama administration’s new plan is essentially exactly what it had already outlined as part of its bilateral pledge with China <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/future_tense/2014/11/12/u_s_china_deal_on_emissions_reductions_won_t_stop_climate_change_but_it.html">late last year</a>: a 26-28 percent reduction in emissions by 2025 as compared to 2005 levels. The only change is that now the U.S. has pledged to shoot for the upper end of that target—which <a href="http://switchboard.nrdc.org/blogs/jschmidt/new_us_climate_target_is_achievable.html">analysts believe</a> is easily achievable, and <a href="http://thebreakthrough.org/index.php/issues/decarbonization/us-china-climate-deal-underscores-need-for-substantial-energy-innovation">vastly short</a> of what’s needed.</p>
<p>Tuesday’s U.S. voluntary pledge—known in UN-speak as an <a href="http://www.wri.org/indc-definition">Intended Nationally Determined Contribution</a>—was initially tough to download via a Google Chrome browser, which some considered symbolic:</p>
<p>The short <a href="http://newsroom.unfccc.int/unfccc-newsroom/united-states-submits-its-climate-action-plan-ahead-of-2015-paris-agreement/">five-page document</a> contains a self-congratulatory two-page cover letter, touting the U.S. targets as “fair and ambitious.” However, <a href="http://climateactiontracker.org/countries/usa/2015.html">according to</a> the Climate Action Tracker, a consortium of independent climate analysts, the U.S. goal <a href="http://climateactiontracker.org/news/199/Are-governments-doing-their-fair-share-New-method-assesses-climate-action-.html">is neither</a>. Factoring in various countries’ abilities to reduce carbon, the Climate Action Tracker preliminarily ranked the U.S. pledge as “medium,” not something to be especially proud of. The European Union and China fall into the same category.</p>
<p>Jake Schmidt of the Natural Resources Defense Council, an environmental advocacy group, told <strong><em>Slate</em></strong> that the U.S. pledge was quite clearly a first step. “We’re going to have to strengthen ambition over time,” he said, adding that the Obama administration, dealing with a largely hostile Congress, is committing to the “most that they can” under existing law.</p>
<p>That may be, but given the fact the U.S. has emitted <a href="http://image.slidesharecdn.com/gcpbudget2014v1-140930072931-phpapp02/95/global-carbon-budget-2014-37-638.jpg?cb=1412146368">more total carbon</a> than any other country—one-fifth of all carbon ever emitted—Obama could have at least used this moment to help developing countries transition to low carbon economies. <a href="http://www.foe.org/news/news-releases/2015-03-us-announces-weak-contribution-to-paris-agreement">Noticeably missing</a> from Tuesday’s pledge were specifics on how the U.S. plans to fund its pledge to a <a href="http://www.carbonbrief.org/blog/2014/11/briefing-country-pledges-to-the-green-climate-fund/">floundering</a> international climate change adaptation fund, for example, a key requirement that poor countries have attached to the current international negotiations, intended to partially account for the historical inequality of emissions.</p>
<p>But even that probably would not be enough to inspire other countries. One analysis from the consulting firm Climate Advisers shows that so far, the world’s pledges have been <a href="http://www.climateadvisers.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/12/Climate-Advisers-Paris-Analysis-Mind-the-Gap.pdf">only half as ambitious</a> as necessary. That’s led to leaders of the UN climate negotiations to <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/future_tense/2015/02/04/u_n_paris_climate_talks_even_the_architects_of_the_agreement_are_pessimistic.html">ratchet back expectations</a> for the agreement due to be signed in Paris in December.</p>Tue, 31 Mar 2015 21:27:34 GMThttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2015/03/31/u_s_climate_targets_in_advance_of_paris_agreement_the_obama_administration.htmlEric Holthaus2015-03-31T21:27:34ZbriefingWimpy New U.S. Climate Targets Are Letting the World Down227150331007climatebarack obamaglobal warmingunited nationsEric HolthausThe SlatestThe Slatesthttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2015/03/31/u_s_climate_targets_in_advance_of_paris_agreement_the_obama_administration.htmlfalsefalsefalseThe wimpy new U.S. climate targets are letting the world down:Wimpy New U.S. Climate Targets Are Letting the World DownPhoto by JUAN BARRETO/AFP/Getty ImagesThe Obama administration has missed a chance for truly ambitious climate policy.Of Daisies and the Robot Apocalypsehttp://www.slate.com/articles/technology/future_tense/2015/03/james_lovelock_interview_the_legendary_scientist_who_inspired_simearth.html
<p>This year marks the 25<sup>th</sup> anniversary of <em>SimEarth</em>, the game that shaped my childhood and inspired me to pursue a career in weather and climate. Throughout the early 1990s, I spent countless hours hogging my family’s <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Intel_80486">486</a> to play it, and I wasn’t the <a href="https://twitter.com/tdechant/status/395660328467693568">only one</a>. What <em>SimCity</em> <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/quora/2013/09/26/what_do_urban_planners_think_of_simcity.html">did for urban planning</a>, <em>SimEarth</em> did for environmental science.</p>
<p>But what made <em>SimEarth</em> really special was its realism. Players were mesmerized by <a href="https://twitter.com/raganwald/status/497116868545507328">guiding other species to the atomic age</a>, but at its heart, the game was a scientifically accurate approximation of the entire Earth system. The game included realistic feedbacks among land, ocean, atmosphere, and life itself—in homage to scientist James Lovelock’s <a href="http://www.gaiatheory.org/">Gaia theory</a>, which states that life plays an intimate role in planetary evolution.</p>
<p>Lovelock was an adviser to the game’s developers, and <a href="http://www.indiana.edu/~geol105b/1425chap9.htm">his “Daisyworld” hypothesis</a>—intended to prove that life itself evolves to regulate its environment, making it more likely for life to thrive—was incorporated into <em>SimEarth</em> as a tutorial. I’d unleash hordes of rabbits to eat the daisies, but the flowers would gradually bring things back in order and eventually flourish once more. Lovelock developed his theory while tasked by NASA to invent a life-detecting device for the Viking landers on Mars. In doing so, he made a profound observation: Life tends to increase the order of its surroundings, and we don’t need to send a probe to the planet to find it. If life is thriving, studying its atmospheric composition will be evidence enough.</p>
<p>In <em>SimEarth</em>, the planet itself <a href="https://twitter.com/colinski11/status/578986284422594561/photo/1">was alive</a>. Once civilization emerged, you could watch the impacts of changes in atmospheric composition due to fossil fuel burning or the <a href="http://www.cooperativeindividualism.org/sagan-carl_nuclear-winter-1983.html">temporary expanding ice caps</a> in the aftermath of a major nuclear war. The game came with a <a href="http://www.freegameempire.com/games/SimEarth/manual">212-page manual</a> that was at once an engrossing lesson in geology, meteorology, ecology, and environmental ethics, written in language even 11-year-olds <a href="https://twitter.com/t3dy/status/573226335000109056">could understand</a>. Through his wife, Anya, Will Wright—<a href="http://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2006/11/06/game-master">the mastermind</a> behind the <em>Sim</em> franchise—told me he has “huge respect” for Lovelock. The game’s full name even nodded to the Gaia theory. It was <em>SimEarth: The Living Planet</em>.</p>
<p>Earlier this month, Electronic Arts <a href="http://motherboard.vice.com/read/youll-regret-this-simcity-developer-maxis-is-closing-down">essentially shut down Maxis</a>, the developer of <em>SimEarth</em> and <em>SimCity</em>, which EA acquired in 1997. The breaking point apparently came after the 2013 iteration of <em>SimCity</em>, which was labeled a failure due to its shift away from individual gameplay (though it <a href="http://www.slate.com/articles/technology/technology/2013/03/simcity_review_the_new_version_of_the_classic_game_is_totally_addictive.single.html">had its fans</a>). <a href="http://www.wired.com/2015/02/a-sandbox-for-the-anthropocene/">New games</a> in the spirit of <em>SimEarth</em> are still being made, but nothing will ever match that classic.</p>
<p>In <a href="http://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2015/03/video-games-are-better-without-characters/387556/">his eulogy of Maxis</a> for the <em>Atlantic</em>, game designer Ian Bogost noted that one of the legacies of complex-systems games like the <em>Sim</em> franchise was their ability to force us to think about how game players could be agents of change in the real world: “To pursue an alternate future, we’d have to change how the machine works, not just the faces of its operators. But to change how the machine works, we’d have to admit that it is bigger than us.”</p>
<p>As humanity tackles <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/future_tense/2015/03/12/study_says_the_anthropocene_or_age_of_man_began_in_1610.html">the idea of the Anthropocene</a>—the proposed name for the idea that we are now in a new geological age, one in which humans possess <em>SimEarth</em>-scale powers to affect the planet—we’re at a crossroads. But <em>SimEarth</em> and its lessons are as relevant as ever.</p>
<p>So is Lovelock. At age 95, he has just released <a href="http://www.amazon.com/dp/1468310461/?tag=slatmaga-20">a new book</a>—a poignant bit of timing, given that <em>SimEarth </em>just came to an end. <em>A Rough Ride to the Future</em> is part autobiography, part a continuation of his philosophy of Gaia. In it, Lovelock suggests a period of “accelerated evolution”—literally a million times faster than Darwinian evolution—began in 1712 with the invention of the steam engine. That’s brought amazing technological progress (like video games) alongside unprecedented uncertainty about the future of humanity. The catch is, as Lovelock writes, “we are not yet evolved enough to regulate ourselves.” Lovelock says that’ll change in the coming decades with the advent of superintelligent artificial intelligence, a transition that he says humans should embrace because it will help us to bring about a great future and spread throughout the galaxy.</p>
<p><em>SimEarth</em> actually included an <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LP5ONR2Cm-0">Easter egg that explored this scenario</a>: If you nuked a nanotech city in a desert, intelligent robot life&nbsp;would form. When Lovelock and I spoke by phone last month, he told me that could be a parallel for what he thinks is the next stage in human evolution—a blending of human and machines that has seemed to make him much more optimistic for the future than he was <a href="http://www.amazon.com/dp/0465041698/?tag=slatmaga-20">in his past books</a>. We mostly discussed his continued fascination with the complexity of life in the universe, which is admittedly a pretty broad topic.</p>
<p><em>This interview has been edited and condensed for clarity.</em></p>
<p><strong>When <em>SimEarth</em> was developed, 25 years ago, we weren’t sure if there were other solar systems besides ours. Now, we’re entering perhaps a golden age of exploring planets outside our solar system, with the possibility of </strong><a href="http://seagerexoplanets.mit.edu/research.htm">analyzing exoplanet atmospheres</a><strong>. Do you think the Gaia theory—the fact that life modifies its host planet’s atmosphere—might be used to discover the first evidence of life on other planets?</strong></p>
<p>It’s very exciting. If we find a mixture of gases on some planet that reacts on a relatively short timescale, say 10 or 100 years, it almost certainly means there’s life on that planet. It may be as short of a time as next year, or it may be 100 years.</p>
<p><strong>You worked with Will Wright to develop <em>SimEarth</em>. That game was revolutionary and helped inspire me, and countless others, to pursue careers in climate science. There’s a lot more vying for children’s attention these days. If you were to help make an environmental video game today for kids, what would be the main lesson you’d want them to learn?</strong></p>
<p>Working on <em>SimEarth</em> was very fun. For students today, the most important thing is to take a long view. It’s easy to get worried about things like climate change, but the planet has been through worse in the last 3 billion years. I think we’ll pull through.</p>
<p><strong>Your new book focuses on the idea that humanity is about to enter a new phase of evolution aided by rapid technological change.</strong></p>
<p>Moore’s law [which states that computing power doubles every two years] probably extends well beyond the computer. I think it’s a generality. The conduction of electrons along a circuit is a million times faster than the conduction of ions along a neuron. Our brains are actually quite slow.</p>
<p>That said, and I may be wrong, but I think that artificial intelligence isn’t really intelligence at all by our standards. Because computers are so fast, they can do all sorts of things, and they have side routines and so on and so forth. But sports players make really high-level mathematics look like child’s play. Our minds obviously think in a massively parallel manner, not in a logical step-by-step manner like a computer. In our own strange ways, we are very much more intelligent than we think. An awful lot of our intelligence is unconscious. It’s intuitive.</p>
<p><strong>You write that humanity has the potential to become the intelligent part of Gaia, quite literally the mind of an entire planet. Do you think future humans will do a better job at taking care of the Earth than we have?</strong></p>
<p>We’ve often thought of ourselves as God’s chosen creatures, you know, “there’s nothing better than us.” I think this is a load of nonsense. Something is going to evolve that will overtake us. My guess is it will happen through that process that my colleague Lynn Margulis discovered—<a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Symbiogenesis">endosymbiosis</a>—perhaps with computer chip life that could form a new sort of entity.</p>
<p>In fact, it’s happening already. I’ve got a pacemaker installed in me that has a 10-year battery, but I understand that the next generation of pacemakers will get their power from the body of the person it’s installed in. This can evolve.</p>
<p>I’m an optimist, and it’s quite often that you find that it’s disasters that lead to advances. An example: Forty years ago I had a heart attack, and I survived. It made me do things that I should have done anyway: give up smoking, get much more exercise, and lead a sensible life. At the time, I thought it was a disaster. The same thing, I think, applies to the Earth.</p>
<p>We can’t have it both ways. If climate change or something is going to cause a great disaster, then Moore’s law will come to a halt. Conversely, climate change could ultimately be fixed with the help of computer intelligence. I choose the second scenario. At my age, you haven’t much option except to be an optimist.</p>
<p>* * *</p>
<p><em>SimEarth </em>helped steer my preadolescent mind to the idea of infinite possibility. It’s hard to say what might happen in the next century, but humanity surely needs Lovelock—and other outside-the-box thinkers like him—to inspire new ways for us to explore our rapidly changing planet.</p>
<p><em>This article is part of Future Tense, a collaboration among&nbsp;</em><a href="http://www.asu.edu/?feature=research"><em>Arizona State University</em></a><em>, </em><a href="http://www.newamerica.org/"><em>New America</em></a><em>, and&nbsp;</em><strong><em>Slate</em></strong><em>.&nbsp;Future Tense explores the ways emerging technologies affect society, policy, and culture. To read more, visit the&nbsp;</em><a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/future_tense.html"><em>Future Tense blog</em></a><em>&nbsp;and the&nbsp;</em><a href="http://www.slate.com/articles/technology/future_tense.html"><em>Future Tense home page</em></a><em>. You can also&nbsp;</em><a href="http://www.twitter.com/futuretensenow"><em>follow us on Twitter</em></a><em>.</em></p>Mon, 30 Mar 2015 17:18:08 GMThttp://www.slate.com/articles/technology/future_tense/2015/03/james_lovelock_interview_the_legendary_scientist_who_inspired_simearth.htmlEric Holthaus2015-03-30T17:18:08ZLegendary scientist James Lovelock contemplates humanity’s future and <em>SimEarth</em>.TechnologyThe Legendary Scientist Who Inspired
<em>SimEarth</em>100150330006climate changevideo gamesscienceEric HolthausFuture Tensehttp://www.slate.com/articles/technology/future_tense/2015/03/james_lovelock_interview_the_legendary_scientist_who_inspired_simearth.htmlfalsefalsefalseOf daisies and the robot apocalypse: a Q&A with the scientist who inspired SimEarth:The Legendary Scientist Who Inspired <em>SimEarth</em>Photo illustration by Slate. Photo by Thinkstock.Gaia on a grid.Apple Watch Could Make You a Walking Weather Stationhttp://www.slate.com/blogs/future_tense/2015/03/27/apple_watch_could_make_you_a_walking_weather_station.html
<p>Apple’s new watch will come with a suite of health-centric sensors—including, perhaps surprisingly, a <a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/technology/apple/watch/11459459/Apple-Watch-specifications-and-pricing.html">barometer</a> intended to track elevation changes during a workout and whether it’s outdoors or within a building. But for meteorologists, the advent of widespread wearable barometers is a game-changer when it comes to weather forecasting.</p>
<p>Last fall, after the announcement of the iPhone 6 and its barometer, meteorologist Cliff Mass wrote a <a href="http://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2014/09/the-iphone-6-has-barometer.html">giddy blog post</a> about the promise of smartphone barometers. He said <a href="http://www.washington.edu/news/2013/02/06/smartphones-tablets-help-uw-researchers-improve-storm-forecasts/">experimental results</a> from his research team show that dense networks of mobile barometers alone can create <a href="http://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2012/12/can-smartphone-observations.html">highly accurate</a> three-dimensional weather maps. That “almost sounds like magic” to Mass.</p>
<p>The implications of highly localized weather forecasts are profound. The Weather Company, which owns the Weather Channel, has used local weather forecasts to drive increased revenue through context-specific advertising <a href="http://forecastfactor.weather.com/location-based-advertising-the-future-of-marketing-is-here-now?utm_content=13082003&amp;utm_medium=social&amp;utm_source=twitter">for years</a>. But beyond creating clickier ads, dense networks of barometer-enabled smartphones in India and Africa could boost local economies by <a href="http://ccafs.cgiar.org/news/press-releases/millions-indian-farmers-use-mobile-phones-get-weather-and-farm-advice#.VRRp7pPF9q4">aiding agriculture</a> and other weather-dependent sectors.</p>
<p>The potential for smartwatches to bring about a new generation of hyper-local forecasts reminds me of the below scene in <em>Back to the Future</em>. App developers are already working to make that past future 2015 a reality.</p>
<p>Adam Grossman is the co-founder of Dark Sky, the weather app that Apple <a href="http://venturebeat.com/2015/03/09/11-apps-ready-to-launch-on-apple-watch-and-a-few-more-to-look-out-for/">featured during its launch event</a> for the watch earlier in March. Though he’s excited about the potential of his <a href="http://blog.forecast.io/dark-sky-for-apple-watch/">new Watch app</a>, he says Apple isn’t letting developers access the on-board barometer sensor yet. Since the watch requires an iPhone to work, its own on-board barometer is essentially redundant—but that will soon change.</p>
<p>“I don’t think Apple wants to require an iPhone with the watch,” said Grossman. “It always takes me longer to fish my phone out of my pocket than it does to check the weather. The watch is the right place for that kind of stuff.”</p>
<p>Grossman hopes that future versions of Dark Sky will collect barometer data in addition to “manual entry” data, like whether it’s currently snowing or raining. After that, he’ll focus on actually using the barometer data to improve the forecast.</p>
<p>Another company is a bit further ahead. Katerina Stroponiati is co-founder of Sunshine, a crowdsourced weather app that’s currently in beta and recently announced <a href="http://thesunshine.co/blog/2015/03/22/clear-skies-ahead-announcing-latest-funding-round-3/">a significant new round of funding</a>. Sunshine is planning a public launch in April.</p>
<p>“Sunshine is a weather network based entirely on mobile, which means that instead of just using traditional weather providers like [the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration], we use the sensors of the smartphones to collect the data,” Stroponiati said. “The more data, the better.”</p>
<p>Sunshine is planning to launch in cities across the United States once it receives enough data density to show a measurable improvement over existing forecasts—San Francisco will be one of its initial focus areas. Eventually, the goal is to “build a ground observation network of millions of devices.” Sunshine doesn’t yet have a Watch app but is planning one.</p>
<p>In addition to collecting weather data from phones and wearables, the company plans to use distributed computing on the mobile devices themselves to generate the forecasts. That would help bypass the need for expensive supercomputers.</p>
<p>Though small companies like Dark Sky and Sunshine are promising big results, Mass thinks a true transformation in meteorology will only happen when device makers like Apple and Samsung start to see themselves as weather data providers. Mass currently has access to about 120,000 pressure measurements an hour—enough to improve forecasts in some cases—“but there’s 40 million [mobile barometers] out there. There’s not many people with these apps, that’s the problem.”</p>Fri, 27 Mar 2015 18:03:07 GMThttp://www.slate.com/blogs/future_tense/2015/03/27/apple_watch_could_make_you_a_walking_weather_station.htmlEric Holthaus2015-03-27T18:03:07ZTechnologyApple Watch Could Make You a Walking Weather Station203150327001weatherapple watchmeteorologyEric HolthausFuture TenseFuture Tensehttp://www.slate.com/blogs/future_tense/2015/03/27/apple_watch_could_make_you_a_walking_weather_station.htmlfalsefalsefalseApple Watch could make you a walking weather station:Apple Watch Could Make You a Walking Weather StationPhoto by Justin Sullivan/Getty ImagesThe new Apple Watch also contains a barometer, which has meteorologists excited.Lindsey Graham Should Run for Presidenthttp://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/politics/2015/03/lindsey_graham_for_president_the_republican_senator_from_south_carolina.html
<p>With the American electorate <a href="http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/politics/2015/02/climate_change_polls_a_majority_of_americans_care_about_climate_change_just.html">shifting solidly in favor of climate action</a> over the last few years, Republican presidential candidates <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/future_tense/2014/11/07/climate_change_in_the_2014_midterms_republicans_may_be_rethinking_positions.html">have a tough decision to make</a>: Keep chasing donations from the fossil fuel industry, or follow where the science leads and form an authentically conservative plan for addressing the increasingly pressing problem of global warming.</p>
<p>Unfortunately for the planet, <a href="http://grist.org/politics/meet-the-climate-deniers-who-want-to-be-president/">it’s not looking pretty</a>. Here’s what the leading 2016 Republican presidential hopefuls have to say about climate change:</p>
<p>Jeb Bush: “<a href="http://www.motherjones.com/politics/2014/12/jeb-bush-climate-change-skeptic">I’m a skeptic</a>.”&nbsp;</p>
<p>Scott Walker: Masterfully evaded a second-grader’s questions on his climate position last month, <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xyn7t4gstGA">saying</a>, “I was a Boy Scout … campsites should be cleaner when we leave than when we found it.” He’s signed <a href="http://host.madison.com/news/local/writers/steven_elbow/scott-walker-among-signers-of-koch-backed-no-climate-tax/article_6b078010-1304-58a9-8e80-ea384a251c33.html">a pledge</a> to oppose any climate change legislation that includes a “net increase in government revenue.”</p>
<p>Ben Carson: “You can ask it several different ways, but my answer is going to be the same,” <a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2014-11-26/ben-carson-not-convinced-on-global-warming">he told a <em>Bloomberg</em> reporter last year</a>. “We may be warming. We may be cooling.”</p>
<p>Rand Paul: Recently <a href="http://www.nationaljournal.com/twenty-sixteen/rand-paul-s-risky-bet-on-climate-change-20150212">voted in support</a> of a Senate amendment that said climate change is real and humans are contributing to it. But just last year, <a href="http://grist.org/politics/rand-paul-is-no-moderate-on-climate-change/">he said</a> the science on climate change was “not conclusive.”</p>
<p>Marco Rubio: “I do not believe that human activity is causing these dramatic changes to our climate,” <a href="http://www.latimes.com/nation/politics/politicsnow/la-pn-rubio-denies-climate-change-20140511-story.html">he said</a> last year on ABC’s <em>This Week</em>.</p>
<p>Ted Cruz: Denies a human influence on climate, recently <a href="http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2014/02/20/cruz-to-cnn-global-warming-not-supported-by-data/">telling CNN</a> “there’s never been a day in the history of the world in which the climate is not changing.”</p>
<p>For years now, the GOP has looked the other way on climate change. Even as voters’ preferences evolve, Republican politicians have <a href="http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/politics/2015/01/senate_keystone_votes_republicans_gave_democrats_and_the_climate_an_even.html">demonstrated an unwavering, shortsighted commitment</a> to denying that humans have anything to do with the Earth’s rising temperature. A <a href="http://www.environment.yale.edu/climate-communication/article/republican-views-on-climate-change">recent poll</a> of self-identified Republicans and Republican-leaning independents found only one-third of respondents agreed with their party’s position on climate change, with a large majority saying their elected representatives are unresponsive to their views on the issue.</p>
<p>Global action on climate change <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2014/08/27/us/politics/obama-pursuing-climate-accord-in-lieu-of-treaty.html">is in large part contingent</a> on what America, as the leading historical emitter of carbon dioxide, decides to do. It’s not a stretch to say the world depends on near-term leadership from the Republican Party, and the only way to get the country’s climate policies in line with popular demand, not to mention working toward decoupling economic growth from the use of fossil fuels, is a pro-climate Republican president. Thankfully, there exists just the candidate for the job: Sen. Lindsey Graham of South Carolina.<a></a></p>
<p>On Monday, <a href="http://www.cfr.org/iran/conversation-lindsey-graham/p36291">in a speech</a> at the Council on Foreign Relations in New York, Graham lambasted his fellow Republicans for their lack of progress on climate change, saying some “soul-searching” was needed within the party on this critical issue.<a>*</a> “When it comes to climate change being real, people of my party are all over the board,” he said.</p>
<p>“Before we can be bipartisan, we gotta figure out where we are as a party. What is the environmental platform of the Republican Party?” Graham asked. “I'd like to come up with one. I'd like to have a debate within the party. Can you say that climate change is a scientifically sound phenomenon, but can you reject the idea you have to destroy the economy to solve the problem is sort of where I'll be taking this debate.”</p>
<p>Those words couldn’t be more welcome. As a senator, Graham has been a consistent centrist voice on climate, a stark contrast to the other, more extreme 2016 Republican contenders. He co-authored climate legislation that narrowly failed the Senate in 2009 and 2010 (the closest the U.S. has ever come to comprehensive climate policy). He’s supported an expanded role for nuclear power and stressed the importance of limiting air pollution to improve public health. His <a href="http://www.ontheissues.org/international/Lindsey_Graham_Energy_+_Oil.htm">voting record</a> reflects his philosophy that the way forward on climate isn’t through regulation, <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jtE2m7Nt16Q">but through</a> incentives to support American leadership in the clean energy economy, like <a href="https://www.americanprogressaction.org/issues/green/report/2010/04/15/7545/using-tax-incentives-to-drive-the-clean-energy-economy/">tax breaks for innovative companies</a>. The Environmental Defense Fund, a major nonprofit advocacy organization, has even <a href="http://grist.org/politics/why-is-environmental-defense-fund-backing-lindsey-graham/">held fundraisers</a> for Graham. This statement from his 2010 Senate floor speech pretty much <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jtE2m7Nt16Q">sums up his approach</a>: “Carbon is bad. Let’s do something about it in a common sense way.”</p>
<p>For years, Graham has been a staunch critic of global warming extremism, on both the right and the left. On Monday, his practical talk on climate again struck that sane chord: “The problem is Al Gore's turned this thing into religion. You know, climate change is not a religious problem for me. It's an economic—it is an environmental problem.” In addition to Al Gore’s <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/future_tense/2015/01/23/davos_climate_change_hundreds_of_private_jets_at_the_world_economic_forum.html">mixed messages on climate</a>, right-wing <a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/the-republicans-war-on-science-and-reason/2011/10/24/gIQALl3BEM_story.html">politicization of science</a> <a href="http://www.livescience.com/22069-polarization-climate-science.html">has helped</a> make climate change the single <a href="http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2014/05/27/3441360/climate-change-controversy/">most polarizing issue of our time</a>. It doesn’t have to be this way. Given that the world’s carbon budget is <a href="http://www.carbonbrief.org/blog/2014/11/six-years-worth-of-current-emissions-would-blow-the-carbon-budget-for-1-point-5-degrees/">quickly depleting</a>, an end to talking past one another on this issue can’t come soon enough.</p>
<p>Now, for center-left voters, Graham brings a lot of baggage: He’s a definite hawk when it comes to American military involvement in the Middle East, and he voted against Obama’s health care reform. He’s <a href="http://www.nbcnews.com/meet-the-press/lindsey-graham-ive-never-sent-email-n319571">also said</a> he’s never sent an email before, which is just weird. But if you believe, as I do (and <a href="http://www.cnn.com/2015/01/21/us/climate-change-us-obama/">President Obama says he does</a>), that climate change is an issue of unique import and poses a threat to our national security, then Graham is uniquely qualified to lead our country to a brighter, cleaner future.</p>
<p>Yes, there are Democrats who are more progressive on climate, but Graham has the ability to bridge the divide between the right and the left by motivating the GOP to consider practical solutions to climate change that can improve the welfare of the entire world.<a></a></p>
<p>The business-as-usual climate change scenarios are <a href="http://www.skepticalscience.com/graphics.php?g=88">truly frightening</a>: If we don’t change our path in the next few years—within the term of the next American president—we’ll greatly jeopardize our chances of maintaining a planet that closely resembles the one that gave rise to human civilization. That alone merits single-issue voting on climate, and it’s why Lindsey Graham needs to run for president.</p>
<p><em><strong>Correction, March 26, 2015: </strong>This article originally misstated the location of Lindsey Graham’s Council on Foreign Relations speech. It was in New York, not Washington. (<a>Return</a>.)</em></p>Wed, 25 Mar 2015 16:29:56 GMThttp://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/politics/2015/03/lindsey_graham_for_president_the_republican_senator_from_south_carolina.htmlEric Holthaus2015-03-25T16:29:56ZThe Republican senator from South Carolina may be the only politician who can stop global warming.&nbsp;News and PoliticsLindsey Graham Is Our Best Hope to Stop Global Warming. He Should Run for President.100150325008global warmingclimate change2016 campaignpoliticsEric HolthausPoliticshttp://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/politics/2015/03/lindsey_graham_for_president_the_republican_senator_from_south_carolina.htmlfalsefalsefalseLindsey Graham should run for president (and not for the reason you think, really):Lindsey Graham Is Our Best Hope to Stop Global Warming. He Should Run for President.Photo illustration by Juliana Jiménez Jaramillo. Photo by Mandel Ngan/AFP/Getty Images.Sen. Lindsey Graham has been a consistent centrist voice on climate, a stark contrast to the more extreme 2016 Republican contenders.The Day After Tomorrow&nbsp;Might Kinda, Sorta Come Truehttp://www.slate.com/blogs/future_tense/2015/03/23/greenland_icemelt_study_suggests_the_day_after_tomorrow_has_some_basis_in.html
<p>In the 2004 blockbuster <em><a href="http://www.amazon.com/dp/B000NDMRCS/?tag=slatmaga-20">The Day After Tomorrow</a></em>, abrupt climate change plunges the world into chaos. According to new research published Monday, the idea that underpins the film’s plot—that rapid Arctic ice melt could cause dramatic changes to the global climate system—just got one step closer to reality.</p>
<p>Of particular concern are the profound changes happening in the Greenland ice sheet: It appears that the massive amount of freshwater from melting Greenland glaciers has now begun to slow the ocean’s circulating currents.</p>
<p><a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2554">Monday’s study</a>, published in the journal <em>Nature Climate Change</em>, is as frightening as it is significant. Among its authors are some of the biggest names in climate science: Jason Box, a glaciologist at the Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland, whose ongoing <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/future_tense/2014/09/16/jason_box_s_research_into_greenland_s_dark_snow_raises_more_concerns_about.html">“Dark Snow” project</a> is measuring the rapid melting of ice in Greenland; and Michael Mann, a meteorologist at Penn State University, whose famous 1999 <a href="http://www.grida.no/publications/other/ipcc_tar/?src=/climate/ipcc_tar/wg1/069.htm">“hockey stick” graph</a> showed the sharp influence of human greenhouse gas emissions in context of 1,000 years of temperature data from ice cores and tree rings. Mann’s graph was so powerful it <a href="http://news.psu.edu/story/344876/2015/02/14/research/iconic-graph-center-climate-debate">became a lightning rod</a> of climate denial.</p>
<p>Fresh water is less dense than saltwater. So when glacial melt from Greenland enters the ocean, it resists the natural sinking motion at the northern edge of the Gulf Stream and slows down the Atlantic’s deep current—creating a ripple effect across the entire planet.</p>
<p>The study uses a library of ice cores, tree rings, coral, and sediments to generate a new reconstruction of the historical strength of the Atlantic’s circulation based on temperature changes. The team found recent changes in ocean circulation are “unprecedented” since at least the year 900 A.D., about as far back as these proxy data can reliably go. According to the paper, the probability of a similar circulation slowdown caused by natural variability alone (with no influence from human-caused climate change) was less than 0.5 percent.</p>
<p>The effect they identified is “stronger than what current state-of-the-art climate models predict,” said Mann, likely due to the increasing influence from a melting Greenland.</p>
<p>But don’t expect a new ice age like in the movie. Nearly every square inch of the Earth’s surface has been warming <a href="http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/news/releases/archive/2009/warmest-decade">for decades</a> now—the 2000s were one of the warmest decades <a href="http://www.cnn.com/2013/03/08/world/world-climate-change/">in more than 11,000 years</a>, and the 2010s are <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/future_tense/2014/10/14/pacific_decadal_oscillation_we_may_see_two_el_ni_o_years_in_a_row.html">on pace</a> to be even hotter. Global warming is still the dominant trend and will overwhelm most of the effect of a slowdown in ocean circulation. But a small portion of the North Atlantic near southern Greenland has bucked the trend. It’s here that the new paper focuses its attention. That small patch of ocean actually experienced <a href="http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/service/global/map-percentile-mntp/201412-201502.gif">its coldest three-month stretch on record</a> this past winter.</p>
<p>In a <a href="http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2015/03/whats-going-on-in-the-north-atlantic/">blog post</a> describing the study, lead author Stefan Rahmstorf of Potsdam University in Germany says this past winter’s pronounced cooling in the North Atlantic “suggests the decline of the circulation has progressed even further now than we documented in the paper.” Rahmstorf’s past work has focused on the impact of climate change on ocean circulations, particularly the thermohaline circulation, Earth’s primary oceanic “conveyor belt” circulation, which is driven by geographic differences in temperature and salinity. (<em>Thermo</em>=heat, <em>haline</em>=salt.) That’s the same mechanism <em>The Day After Tomorrow</em> identified as a tipping point in the global climate system. (By the way, <a href="http://www.pik-potsdam.de/~stefan/tdat_review.html">Rahmstorf is also a fan</a> of <em>The Day After Tomorrow</em>.) Since fresh, warm water is less dense than cold, salty water, scientists like Rahmstorf have long argued the thermohaline circulation may slow down as the climate warms and Arctic ice melts.</p>
<p>Monday’s study showed that process has likely already begun. In a press statement, Rahmstorf said, “we have detected strong evidence that the global conveyor has indeed been weakening in the past hundred years, particularly since 1970.”</p>
<p>In emails to <strong><em>Slate</em></strong>, both Box and Mann agreed Monday’s paper was one of the most important of their careers. “This is yet another example of&nbsp;where observations suggest that climate model predictions may be too conservative when it comes to the pace at&nbsp;which certain aspects of climate change are proceeding,” said Mann.</p>
<p><a href="http://www.rtcc.org/2014/04/14/greenland-ice-melt-accelerating-say-scientists/">Previous research</a> by Box and others has shown Greenland’s melting is accelerating, but the scientific community had been unclear on how fast those changes were impacting ocean circulation. “We <a href="http://www.meltfactor.org/blog/">now see</a> an effect of Greenland melting besides the obvious sea level rise contribution,” said Box.</p>
<p>Now, before you go calling Dennis Quaid for backup as you plot your southward snowshoe journey on I-95, the movie’s apocalyptic global-warming-induced cool-down <a href="http://www.c2es.org/blog/maherk/tipping-points-climate-change-revisiting-day-after-tomorrow">was vastly overdone</a>. In the real world, rapid changes in the climate system take years or decades to play out, not days. Long-term cooling would likely be limited to that spot in the North Atlantic, far from land. But even that seemingly slow rate of change, while not as thrilling on the big screen, has potentially major implications for slow-adapting cities and ecosystems.</p>
<p>&quot;If the slowdown of the Atlantic overturning continues, the impacts might be substantial,&quot; says Rahmstorf. &quot;Disturbing the circulation will likely have a negative effect on the ocean ecosystem, and thereby fisheries and the associated livelihoods of many people in coastal areas. A slowdown also adds to the regional sea-level rise affecting cities like New York and Boston.&quot; A <a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/morning-mix/wp/2015/02/25/mysterious-east-coast-flooding-caused-by-unprecented-surge-in-sea-level/">separate recent study</a> found a sharp 4-inch surge in East Coast sea levels in just one year, around 2009, that was linked to the slowdown in the Atlantic current as water piled up.</p>
<p>Should melting of Greenland continue to accelerate, there’s a small chance that the entire thermohaline circulation could collapse, though that’s not likely to happen for several more decades. Still, the implications would be huge: up to 30 inches of extra sea level rise along the East Coast, stronger winter storms, and an interruption of the Atlantic marine food chain. Prior to Monday’s study, a <a href="http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs10584-009-9561-y">survey of experts</a> put the risk of a full collapse scenario at around 10 percent over the next century. Those odds were likely boosted a bit with the new results.</p>
<p>The study comes as the Northeast United States, <a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2015/03/15/boston-clinches-snowiest-season-on-record-amid-winter-of-superlatives/">particularly Boston</a>, finishes one of the coldest and snowiest winters in history—though, in an email to <strong><em>Slate</em></strong>, Mann said it was “unclear” there was any connection between the implications of his new study and the recent spate of cold weather.</p>Mon, 23 Mar 2015 20:02:11 GMThttp://www.slate.com/blogs/future_tense/2015/03/23/greenland_icemelt_study_suggests_the_day_after_tomorrow_has_some_basis_in.htmlEric Holthaus2015-03-23T20:02:11ZTechnology<em>The Day After Tomorrow</em>&nbsp;Might Kinda, Sorta Come True203150323004climate changeEric HolthausFuture TenseFuture Tensehttp://www.slate.com/blogs/future_tense/2015/03/23/greenland_icemelt_study_suggests_the_day_after_tomorrow_has_some_basis_in.htmlfalsefalsefalseNew study suggests The Day After Tomorrow might have some basis in reality:<em>The Day After Tomorrow</em>&nbsp;Might Kinda, Sorta Come True1519028539001AQ~~,AAAAAASoY90~,_gW1ZHvKG_2pKN0AJTySft1Irx-gT62t412970574700140831837080011519028539001AQ~~,AAAAAASoY90~,_gW1ZHvKG_2pKN0AJTySft1Irx-gT62t412970574700140831837080011519028539001AQ~~,AAAAAASoY90~,_gW1ZHvKG_2pKN0AJTySft1Irx-gT62t412970574700140831837080011519028539001AQ~~,AAAAAASoY90~,_gW1ZHvKG_2pKN0AJTySft1Irx-gT62t412970574700140831837080011519028539001AQ~~,AAAAAASoY90~,_gW1ZHvKG_2pKN0AJTySft1Irx-gT62t412970574700140831837080011519028539001AQ~~,AAAAAASoY90~,_gW1ZHvKG_2pKN0AJTySft1Irx-gT62t412970574700140831837080011519028539001AQ~~,AAAAAASoY90~,_gW1ZHvKG_2pKN0AJTySft1Irx-gT62t41297057470014083183708001Photo by Joe Raedle/Getty ImagesA full moon is seen over an iceberg that broke off from the Jakobshavn Glacier on July 23, 2013, in Ilulissat, Greenland. &nbsp;California’s Next Megadrought Has Already Begunhttp://www.slate.com/blogs/future_tense/2015/03/20/california_megadrought_it_s_already_begun.html
<p>As California limps through another <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/future_tense/2015/01/29/california_s_drought_is_now_even_more_horrible.html">nearly rain-free</a> rainy season, the state is taking increasingly bold action to save water.</p>
<p>On Tuesday, the California state government <a href="http://www.latimes.com/local/lanow/la-me-state-officials-watering-restrictions-20150317-story.html">imposed new mandatory restrictions</a> on lawn watering and incentives to limit water use in hotels and restaurants as part of its latest emergency drought regulations. On Thursday, California Gov. Jerry Brown <a href="http://www.latimes.com/local/political/la-me-pc-brown-emergency-drought-20150318-story.html">announced</a> a $1 billion plan to support water projects statewide and speed aid to hard-hit communities already <a href="http://www.mercurynews.com/drought/ci_27611367/california-drought-water-shortages-near-certainty-this-summer">dealing with shortages</a>. Last month federal water managers <a href="http://www.acwa.com/news/water-supply-challenges/reclamation-announces-initial-zero-water-allocation-ag-users-north-and-">announced</a> a “zero allocation” of agricultural water to a key state canal system for the second year in a row, essentially transforming thousands of acres of California farmland into dust.</p>
<p>This week’s moves come after the <a href="http://ca.gov/drought/topstory/top-story-25.html">state has fallen behind</a> targets to increase water efficiency in 2015 amid the state’s <a href="http://www.mercurynews.com/drought/ci_27070897/california-drought-worst-1-200-years-new-study">worst drought in 1,200 years</a>. Last year, voters passed a $7.5 billion water bond and the legislature approved its <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/future_tense/2014/09/03/california_s_new_groundwater_legislation_is_unfair_but_necessary.html">first-ever restrictions on groundwater pumping</a>, which won’t go into full effect until 2025. Stricter, more immediate limits on water use <a href="http://america.aljazeera.com/articles/2015/3/19/water-rationing-may-become-a-way-of-life-in-california-drought.html">are possible</a> as summer approaches.</p>
<p>But it’s not enough. These moves are small potatoes compared to what’s needed to rein in statewide water use, of which agriculture forms the vast majority. Last week, a pair of op-eds, <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/mar/12/water-shortages-are-coming-time-to-act?CMP=edit_2221">one in</a> the <em>Guardian</em>, <a href="http://www.latimes.com/opinion/op-ed/la-oe-famiglietti-drought-california-20150313-story.html">the other</a> in the <em>Los Angeles Times</em>, spoke with urgency about the West’s growing water crisis.</p>
<p>“California has no contingency plan for a persistent drought like this one (let alone a 20-plus-year mega-drought), except, apparently, staying in emergency mode and praying for rain,” <a href="http://www.latimes.com/opinion/op-ed/la-oe-famiglietti-drought-california-20150313-story.html">wrote</a> NASA water scientist and University of California-Irvine professor Jay Famiglietti. A better plan, he said, was for “immediate mandatory water rationing” across the state. Famiglietti’s work has focused on the <a href="http://www.slate.com/articles/technology/future_tense/2014/07/lake_mead_before_and_after_colorado_river_basin_losing_water_at_shocking.html">shocking recent declines</a> in groundwater across the West, where excessive pumping has caused the ground to sink at rates <a href="http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2014/03/140325-california-drought-subsidence-groundwater/">up to a foot per year</a> and a <a href="http://www.revealnews.org/article/overpumping-of-groundwater-is-contributing-to-global-sea-level-rise/">measurable rise</a> in global sea levels.</p>
<p>Underlying the frantic, short-term search for water is an ominous underlying trend that threatens to fundamentally transform America’s most important agricultural state. Climate change may have already initiated <a href="http://www.slate.com/articles/technology/future_tense/2015/02/study_climate_change_may_bring_about_megadroughts_this_century.html">a new megadrought</a>.</p>
<p>But first, a reality check: California’s cities have more than enough water to withstand the current drought and then some. They simply don’t use that much. Not true for agriculture, which uses 80 percent of California’s water—10 percent of that <a href="http://www.slate.com/articles/technology/future_tense/2014/05/_10_percent_of_california_s_water_goes_to_almond_farming.html">just on almonds</a>. Though it’s still a national powerhouse, fed increasingly by <a href="https://twitter.com/Mdettinger/status/575355965903478784">fast-depleting groundwater supplies</a>, the state’s agriculture industry has likely begun a <a href="http://www.slate.com/articles/technology/future_tense/2014/10/california_central_valley_agriculture_drought_and_climate_change_photos.html">long-term decline</a> due mostly to simple math. Abnormally dry conditions have dominated in <a href="http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2015/03/150304-snow-snowpack-california-drought-groundwater-crisis/#cadrought">11 of the last 15 years</a>, and the cuts have to come from somewhere. Agriculture is the elephant in the ever-shrinking room of California water.</p>
<p>Statewide, <a href="http://ca.gov/drought/news/story-76.html">California’s snowpack</a> is now at a record low—just <a href="https://twitter.com/EricHolthaus/status/578265191403556865">12 percent</a> of normal, and less than half of last year’s <a href="http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/IOTD/view.php?id=82910">astonishingly meager total</a>. Normally, California’s snowpack holds the equivalent of about 15 million acre-feet of water around its traditional April 1 peak, about as much as all the state’s reservoirs combined. This year, it’s as if half of the state’s water reserves <a href="http://www.latimes.com/science/la-me-snowpack-20150130-story.html">simply vanished</a>. It’s difficult to imagine the hardship the state will face this summer as the rivers of snowmelt that normally feed the state during the dry season dwindle dangerously. As I wrote last year during <a href="http://www.slate.com/topics/t/thirsty_west.html">my drought-themed reporting trip</a> across the West, California <a href="http://www.slate.com/articles/technology/future_tense/2014/04/thirsty_west_california_s_meager_snowpack_will_exacerbate_a_dangerous_drought.html">just wasn’t built</a> to handle a world without snow.</p>
<p>But it’s not just California. It’s been <a href="https://twitter.com/PeterGleick/status/574979281442340865">freakishly hot</a> out West <a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2015/03/16/californias-ridiculous-run-of-record-heat-inflaming-dire-water-situation/">all winter</a>. Other states are also suffering, with <a href="http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/imageo/2015/03/18/huge-drought-story/#.VQxdsxDF9q7">record low water levels expected this year</a> in the two major reservoirs on the Colorado River—Lake Mead and Lake Powell. The warm winter has helped to dry up the land even more, and pre-emptively melt what little snow has graciously fallen.</p>
<p>If a megadrought has already begun—and <a href="http://www.usatoday.com/story/weather/2014/09/02/california-megadrought/14446195/">there is increasingly strong evidence</a> to support that it has, or will soon—there will be <a href="http://blog.sfgate.com/morford/2015/03/17/california-water-anxiety/">widespread implications</a>, including a significant reshifting of California agriculture outside the state. The California of the past is gone, and climate change is bringing a new one faster than it seems we’re ready for.</p>Fri, 20 Mar 2015 21:40:08 GMThttp://www.slate.com/blogs/future_tense/2015/03/20/california_megadrought_it_s_already_begun.htmlEric Holthaus2015-03-20T21:40:08ZTechnologyCalifornia’s Next Megadrought Has Already Begun203150320004Californiadroughtglobal warmingEric HolthausFuture TenseFuture Tensehttp://www.slate.com/blogs/future_tense/2015/03/20/california_megadrought_it_s_already_begun.htmlfalsefalsefalseCalifornia's next megadrought has already begun.California’s Next Megadrought Has Already BegunPhoto by Justin Sullivan/Getty ImagesExpect more of this. Above, the Almaden Reservoir in January 2014 in San Jose, California.Welcome to Global Warming’s Terrifying New Erahttp://www.slate.com/blogs/future_tense/2015/03/19/thirty_years_of_above_average_temperatures_mean_we_re_entering_a_new_era.html
<p>On Wednesday, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration <a href="http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/2015/2">announced</a> that Earth’s global temperature for February was among the hottest ever measured. So far, 2015 is tracking above record-warm 2014—which, when combined with the <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2015/03/05/el_ni_o_it_s_here_and_it_will_boost_global_warming_to_record_highs.html">newly resurgent El Ni&ntilde;o</a>, means we’re <a href="http://www.usatoday.com/story/weather/2015/03/18/record-warm-winter-globe/24957737/">on pace</a> for <em>another</em> hottest year in history.</p>
<p>In addition to the just-completed <a href="https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/578276867343396865">warmest winter on record globally</a> (despite the brutal cold and <a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2015/03/15/boston-clinches-snowiest-season-on-record-amid-winter-of-superlatives/">record snow</a> in <a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/wp/2015/03/19/this-has-been-the-warmest-winter-on-record-except-in-the-most-politically-important-part-of-the-world/">the eastern U.S.</a>), <a href="http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/2015/03/2015-maximum-lowest-on-record/">new data</a> on Thursday from the National Snow and Ice Data Center show that this year’s peak Arctic sea ice reached its lowest ever maximum extent, thanks to “an unusual configuration of the jet stream” that greatly warmed the Pacific Ocean <a href="http://www.slate.com/articles/technology/future_tense/2015/03/climate_change_is_already_affecting_alaska_s_weather.html">near Alaska</a>.</p>
<p>But here’s the most upsetting news. It’s been exactly 30 years since the last time the world was briefly cooler than its 20<sup>th</sup>-century average. Every single month since February 1985 has been hotter than the long-term average—that’s 360 consecutive months.</p>
<p>More than just being a round number, the 30-year streak <a href="http://theconversation.com/lets-call-it-30-years-of-above-average-temperatures-means-the-climate-has-changed-36175">has deeper significance</a>. In climatology, a continuous 30-year stretch of data is traditionally what’s used to define what’s “normal” for a given location. In a very real way, we can now say that for our given location—the planet Earth—global warming is now “normal.” Forget debating—our climate has officially changed.</p>
<p>This 30-year streak should change the way we think and talk about this issue. We’ve entered a new era in which global warming is a defining characteristic and a fundamental driver of what it means to be an inhabitant of planet Earth. We should treat it that way. For those who care about the climate, that may mean de-emphasizing statistics and science and beginning to talk more confidently about the moral implications of continuing on our current path.</p>
<p>Since disasters disproportionately impact the poor, climate change is increasingly an important economic and social justice issue. The pope will visit the United States <a href="http://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/230612-popes-visit-to-stoke-climate-fight">later this year</a> as part of a broader campaign by the Vatican to directly influence the outcome of this year’s global climate negotiations in Paris—<a href="http://peoplesworld.org/most-catholics-worried-about-climate-change/">recent polling data</a> show his message may be resonating, especially with political conservatives and nonscience types. Two-thirds of Americans <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/02/27/us-usa-climate-poll-idUSKBN0LV0CV20150227">now believe</a> that world leaders are morally obligated to take steps to reduce carbon.</p>
<p>Scientists and journalists have debated the connection between extreme weather and global warming for years, but what’s happening now is different. Since weather impacts virtually every facet of our lives (at least in a small way), and since climate change is affecting weather at every point in the globe every day (at least in a small way), that makes it at the same time incredibly difficult to study and incredibly important. Formal attribution studies that attempt to scientifically tease out whether global warming “caused” individual events are shortsighted and <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/future_tense/2014/12/09/noaa_study_asking_what_caused_california_s_drought_misses_the_point.html">miss the point</a>. It’s time for a change in tack. The better question to ask is: How do we as a civilization collectively tackle the weather extremes we <em>already</em> face?</p>
<p>In the aftermath of the <a href="http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=2936">nearly unprecedented</a> power and destructive force of Cyclone Pam’s landfall in the remote Pacific island nation of Vanuatu—where survivors were <a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-31917913">forced to drink saltwater</a>—emerges perhaps the best recent example I’ve seen of a government acknowledging this changed climate in a scientifically sound way:</p>
<blockquote>
Cyclone Pam&nbsp;is a consequence of climate change since all weather is affected by the planet’s now considerably warmer climate. The spate of extreme storms over the past decade—of which Pam is the latest—is entirely consistent in science with the hottest ever decade on record.
</blockquote>
<p>The statement was from the government of the Philippines, the previous country to suffer a direct strike by a Category 5 cyclone—Haiyan in 2013. As chair of the Climate Vulnerable Forum negotiating bloc, the Philippines also called for a strengthening of ambition in the run-up to this year’s global climate agreement in Paris.</p>
<p>The cost of disasters of all types <a href="http://www.climatecentral.org/news/weather-climate-disasters-cost-trillions-17773">is rising</a> around the globe as population and wealth increase and storms become <a href="http://www.skepticalscience.com/extreme-weather-global-warming-intermediate.htm">more fierce</a>. This week in Japan, 187 countries agreed on a <a href="http://www.rtcc.org/2015/03/18/countries-agree-un-plan-in-sendai-to-save-lives-from-disasters/">comprehensive plan</a> to reduce loss of life from disasters as well as their financial impact. However, the disaster deal is nonbinding and won’t provide support to the most vulnerable countries.</p>
<p>Combining weather statistics and photos of devastated tropical islands with discussions of political and economic winners and losers is increasingly necessary as climate change enters a new era. We’re no longer describing the problem. We’re telling the story of how humanity reacts to this new normal.</p>
<p>As the <em>Guardian</em>’s Alan Rusbridger, in an editorial kickoff of his newspaper’s newly heightened focus on climate, <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/mar/06/climate-change-guardian-threat-to-earth-alan-rusbridger">said</a>, “the mainstream argument has moved on.” What’s coming next isn’t certain, but it’s likely to be much more visceral and real than steadily upward sloping lines on a graph.</p>Thu, 19 Mar 2015 20:58:00 GMThttp://www.slate.com/blogs/future_tense/2015/03/19/thirty_years_of_above_average_temperatures_mean_we_re_entering_a_new_era.htmlEric Holthaus2015-03-19T20:58:00ZTechnologyWelcome to Global Warming’s Terrifying New Era203150319005climate changeweatherEric HolthausFuture TenseFuture Tensehttp://www.slate.com/blogs/future_tense/2015/03/19/thirty_years_of_above_average_temperatures_mean_we_re_entering_a_new_era.htmlfalsefalsefalseCongratulations, Earth, on 360 consecutive months of above-average termperatures:Welcome to Global Warming’s Terrifying New EraPhoto by UNICEF via Getty ImagesStorm damage in Port Vila, Vanuatu.Tonight Is Your Best Chance to See the Northern Lights in a Decadehttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2015/03/17/northern_lights_aurora_borealis_across_america_best_chance_to_see_in_a_decade.html
<p>A St. Patrick’s Day solar storm will send a torrent of green-hued northern lights across much of the United States on Tuesday evening, as a fierce solar storm impacts the Earth’s upper atmosphere.</p>
<p>If the storm holds up at its current strength for the rest of the evening, it could dazzle skywatchers as far south as Dallas and Atlanta, where it may appear low on the horizon. The dancing aurora borealis could be nearly overhead for Seattle, Chicago, and New York City. If it’s clear where you are, go outside. You won’t want to miss it.</p>
<p>The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) held a rare Tuesday afternoon press conference to announce the storm’s arrival and expected impacts.</p>
<p>“Today we are experiencing a severe geomagnetic storm,” Tom Berger, director of the SWPC said. Tuesday’s storm ranks in as a G4 storm, the second strongest in the five-tier level for ranking geomagnetic storms. Bob Rutledge, the lead space weather forecaster at the SWPC said a storm of this magnitude is “a bit unusual in the current solar cycle,” only the second G4 storm in the last decade. The last one that was stronger was in August of 2005.</p>
<p>The current storm is being produced as a result of two magnetic eruptions on the sun’s surface Sunday morning, which sent charged particles towards the Earth at millions of miles per hour and are now exciting our planet’s magnetic field.</p>
<p>This particular storm isn’t expected to result in any fluctuations of the power grid or satellite abnormalities, so you can enjoy the northern lights without worrying about a massive <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/bad_astronomy/2014/08/01/solar_storm_a_massive_2012_cme_just_missed_the_earth.html">civilization-crippling</a> continent-scale blackout.</p>
<p><strong>If you plan to head out, here’s what you need to know:</strong></p>
<ul>
<li>The northern lights could be visible much farther south than normal. At its current intensity, San Francisco, Dallas, and Atlanta could see a glimpse—even as far south as northern Florida. If you live north of those cities (which is most of America), you’ll stand a better chance. Oh by the way, Ireland will also get a chance for some extra greening o’ the sky.</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>The northern lights are best visible around midnight local time—with the sun at its peak height in the sky on the other side of the planet. Plan to head outside around then.</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>If possible, escape your city to the north and try to get a clear, tree-free view of the horizon. That way you’ll have the best shot at seeing the full half-sky arc of the aurora in all its glory. (If you do happen to be stuck in a city, you could still see it, but it will be fainter and harder to see.)</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>Unlike watching a solar eclipse (which can <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/bad_astronomy/2014/10/21/solar_eclipse_partial_eclipse_on_oct_23.html">permanently damage</a> your retina without proper eyewear), you don’t need any special equipment to watch the aurora. Just go outside, point your body toward the north, and look up.</li>
</ul>
<p><strong>How will I know if what I’m seeing is actually the northern lights?</strong></p>
<ul>
<li>If the aurora isn’t very active, you may only see a faint green glow just above the horizon—it’s easy to confuse with light pollution from a nearby city. The key difference is the aurora will be gradually morphing over time. If you set up a long-duration exposure on your camera (at least 30 seconds), you may notice faint pillars of green emanating upwards from the horizon. That’s the aurora.</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>If you’re lucky, or live a bit further north, the aurora may appear as vertically oriented greenish-gray streaks in the sky. If you’re really lucky, it’ll be obvious (and breathtaking) that what you’re seeing is the northern lights—the continuously changing pillars of greens (oxygen) and reds (neon) and purples (argon) are caused by high-energy particles from the sun tunneling into the Earth’s upper atmosphere. <strong><em>Slate</em></strong>’s resident astronomer Phil Plait recently wrote a <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/bad_astronomy/2015/03/15/aurora_what_causes_the_northern_and_southern_lights.html">full aurora explainer</a>.</li>
</ul>
<p>Before you go outside, check NOAA’s <a href="http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/30-minute-aurora-forecast">real-time aurora forecast</a>, which will give you a 30-minute heads up on northern lights activity. And if it’s cloudy where you are tonight, you can <a href="http://spaceweathergallery.com/aurora_gallery.html">watch pictures stream in continuously</a> at SpaceWeather.com. The country will be relatively cloud-free tonight east of the Mississippi, so the solar storm has good timing.</p>Wed, 18 Mar 2015 00:00:00 GMThttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2015/03/17/northern_lights_aurora_borealis_across_america_best_chance_to_see_in_a_decade.htmlEric Holthaus2015-03-18T00:00:00ZbriefingTuesday Night Is Your Best Chance to See the Northern Lights in a Decade227150317014northern lightsastronomyEric HolthausThe SlatestThe Slatesthttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2015/03/17/northern_lights_aurora_borealis_across_america_best_chance_to_see_in_a_decade.htmlfalsefalsefalseTonight will be your best chance to see #NorthernLights in America in a decade:Tuesday Night Is Your Best Chance to See the Northern Lights in a DecadePhoto by Jonathan Nackstrand/AFP/Getty ImagesThe aurora borealis bright up the sky on March 17, 2013, between the towns of Are and Ostersund, Sweden.Humanity Is a Geologic Force “as Earth-Changing as a Meteorite Strike”http://www.slate.com/blogs/future_tense/2015/03/12/study_says_the_anthropocene_or_age_of_man_began_in_1610.html
<p>The idea that humans are fundamentally and irreversibly impacting the planet is impossible to ignore. But are we a geological force, on par with volcanoes and plate tectonics?</p>
<p>A <a href="http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v519/n7542/full/nature14258.html">new study</a> published Wednesday in the journal <em>Nature</em> says yes: “Human activity is now global and is the dominant cause of contemporary environmental change.” The paper’s authors also provide a methodology to nail down the exact year when human influence became a driving force in our planet’s permanent record. The authors cite <a href="https://global.oup.com/academic/product/the-earth-after-us-9780199214976?cc=us&amp;lang=en&amp;">previous research</a> showing evidence that the current era of human activity will likely be observable millions of years in the future.</p>
<p>“The Anthropocene” is a term <a href="http://www.igbp.net/globalchange/anthropocene.4.1b8ae20512db692f2a680009238.html">that’s been suggested</a> as a name to describe the “<a href="http://dotearth.blogs.nytimes.com/2015/03/11/did-earths-anthropocene-age-of-man-begin-with-the-globalization-of-disease-in-1610/?smid=tw-share">Age of Man</a>.” The Smithsonian’s Museum of Natural History in Washington, D.C., is <a href="http://www.nature.com/news/anthropocene-the-human-age-1.17085">currently undergoing a massive renovation</a> designed to highlight Earth’s new reality, placing human activity alongside triceratops fossils in a showcase of the planet’s 4.5 billion year history.</p>
<p>To formally define a new geological epoch, criteria must be met regarding both hard scientific evidence of profound change and a need for clarification among scientists themselves. An <a href="http://quaternary.stratigraphy.org/workinggroups/anthropocene/">international working group</a> will meet next year to decide if current evidence is sufficient. A formal declaration of the Anthropocene seems increasingly likely: The group’s website references a link to a study describing a <a href="http://news.sciencemag.org/earth/2014/06/rocks-made-plastic-found-hawaiian-beach">new type of rock</a> made from plastic in Hawaii and <a href="http://quaternary.stratigraphy.org/workinggroups/anthropocene/dilbertanthrop.jpg">this <em>Dilbert</em> cartoon</a> as proof the term is catching on.</p>
<p>But when did it start? Nailing down the “<a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_Boundary_Stratotype_Section_and_Point">golden spike</a>” moment that humans began to fundamentally shape the Earth’s geology has been controversial, with most scientists and philosophers pointing to the start of the Industrial Revolution, <a href="http://quaternary.stratigraphy.org/workinggroups/anthropocene/">about 1800</a>. But the new <em>Nature </em>study discounts the Industrial Revolution because there’s no clear marker—fossil fuel uptake came gradually over decades. After systematically analyzing the geologic record for anthropogenic signals that met the working group’s criteria, the new study argues for two specific candidates, one significantly earlier and one significantly later than 1800.</p>
<p>The study’s first proposed start date, 1610, is haunting. During the 1500s, the authors argue, the effects of Europeans’ arrival at the Americas spread across the continents. What followed was a pandemic of smallpox, with up to 60 million casualties among the Native Americans—90 percent of the population. By 1610, <a href="https://www.sciencenews.org/article/columbus-arrival-linked-carbon-dioxide-drop">massive reforestation</a> pulled enough carbon dioxide from the atmosphere to show up in <a href="http://cdiac.ornl.gov/trends/co2/graphics/lawdome.smooth75.gif">Antarctic ice cores</a>, and <a href="http://phys.org/news148817103.html">perhaps initiate</a> the so-called Little Ice Age cool-down in Europe.</p>
<p>Around the same time, evidence of the globalization of species like maize, potatoes, and wheat also began to show up in the fossil record. The rapidity of species change on a global scale is “without geological precedent,” according to the study. Lead author Simon Lewis, a geographer at University College London and the University of Leeds, said in a statement: “We humans are now a geological power in our own right—as Earth-changing as a meteorite strike.”</p>
<p>The Holocene Epoch, agreed to via <a href="http://www.theborneopost.com/2015/03/08/the-anthropocene/">a similar process in 2008</a>, describes the rising impact of human civilization since the invention of agriculture. But what’s happening now is a totally different ballgame. Another term that’s gaining favor is “the Great Acceleration” —though unlike “the Anthropocene,” it’s focused on the <a href="http://www.igbp.net/globalchange/greatacceleration.4.1b8ae20512db692f2a680001630.html">unprecedented burst of human development</a> post-World War II.</p>
<p>The study’s second proposed date, 1964, is also a strong candidate, coincident with a peak in global <a href="http://www.nature.com/news/first-atomic-blast-proposed-as-start-of-anthropocene-1.16739">radioactive fallout from nuclear weapons testing</a>. It’s also around the beginning of “the Great Acceleration.” That’s about when industrial chemicals and plastics also began showing up in the geological record. Since 1964, human-produced carbon dioxide emissions have accelerated along with global temperatures, with man-made climate change now a geologic force of its own.</p>
<p>Andrew Revkin, a veteran writer for the <em>New York Times</em> and “senior fellow for environmental understanding” at Pace University, favors the latter date. Revkin also sits on the committee that will make the decision. He said in an email:</p>
<blockquote>
Their proposal of 1610, focusing on that fascinating dip in CO
<sub>2</sub> connected to the collapse of American indigenous societies, is provocative and compelling. Their other alternative, the bomb-testing signature, is more in line with the views of those seeing the Great Acceleration as humanity's geological coming of age. I'd give that proposal the highest odds.
</blockquote>
<p>Revkin says the real importance of whether or not the Anthropocene exists as a formal geological epoch is whether it motivates a change in the way we think about our collective relationship with and impact on the planet. That, he told me, is the “bigger discussion” in the end.</p>
<p>The authors also prefer 1610 because selecting it “implies that colonialism, global trade and coal brought about the Anthropocene,” and those factors still heavily influence civilization. In comparison, 1964 is focused more on the increasing power of weapons of war and the international decision to de-escalate that frightening trend. The spike in geological radioactivity exists only because of the Partial Test Ban Treaty in 1963—a moment of success for our species. But whatever start date the committee chooses next year, the Anthropocene will have lasting implications for how we think about ourselves and our power to destroy or restore.</p>Thu, 12 Mar 2015 18:21:11 GMThttp://www.slate.com/blogs/future_tense/2015/03/12/study_says_the_anthropocene_or_age_of_man_began_in_1610.htmlEric Holthaus2015-03-12T18:21:11ZTechnologyHumanity Is a Geologic Force “as Earth-Changing as a Meteorite Strike”203150312003climate changeearthenvironmentEric HolthausFuture TenseFuture Tensehttp://www.slate.com/blogs/future_tense/2015/03/12/study_says_the_anthropocene_or_age_of_man_began_in_1610.htmlfalsefalsefalseNew study says that the Anthropocene, the Age of Man, began in 1610:Humanity Is a Geologic Force “as Earth-Changing as a Meteorite Strike”Photo by Uriel Sinai/Getty ImagesAn aerial view of icebergs floating by Greenland. Scientists believe that Greenland, with its melting ice caps and disappearing glaciers, is an accurate thermometer of global warming. &nbsp;Baked Alaskahttp://www.slate.com/articles/technology/future_tense/2015/03/climate_change_is_already_affecting_alaska_s_weather.html
<p>Earlier this winter, Monica Zappa packed up her crew of Alaskan sled dogs and headed south, in search of snow. “We haven’t been able to train where we live for two months,” she told me.</p>
<p>Alaska’s Kenai Peninsula, which Zappa calls home, has been practically tropical this winter. Rick Thoman, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Alaska, has been dumbfounded. “Homer, Alaska, keeps setting record after record, and I keep looking at the data like, <em>Has the temperature sensor gone out or something?</em>“</p>
<p><em>Something </em>does seem to be going on in Alaska. Last fall, a skipjack tuna, which is <a href="https://www.flmnh.ufl.edu/fish/Gallery/Descript/SkipjackTuna/SkipjackTuna.html">more likely to be found in the Gal&aacute;pagos</a> than near a glacier, <a href="http://www.adn.com/article/20140914/unusual-species-alaska-waters-indicate-parts-pacific-warming-dramatically">was caught</a> about 150 miles southeast of Anchorage, not far from the Kenai. This past weekend, race organizers had to <a href="https://twitter.com/saraboa/status/574095268724920320">truck in snow</a> to the ceremonial <a href="https://twitter.com/kylehopkinsAK/status/574308643555794946">Iditarod start line</a> in Anchorage. Sen. Lisa Murkowski of Alaska <a href="https://twitter.com/lisamurkowski/status/574087740687417344">tweeted a photo</a> of one of the piles of snow with the hashtag #wemakeitwork.</p>
<p>But it’s unclear how long that will be possible. Alaska is heating up at twice the rate of the rest of the country—a canary in our climate coal mine. A <a href="http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2015/03/10/3631632/climate-change-rate/">new report</a> shows that warming in Alaska, along with the rest of the Arctic, is accelerating as the loss of snow and ice cover begins to set off a feedback loop of further warming. Warming in wintertime has been the most dramatic—more than 6 degrees <a href="http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/impacts-adaptation/alaska.html">in the past 50 years</a>. And this is just a fraction of the warming <a href="http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/impacts-adaptation/alaska.html">that’s expected to come</a> over just the next few decades.</p>
<p>Of course, <a href="http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/IOTD/view.php?id=85460">it’s not just Alaska</a>. Last month was the most extreme February on record in the Lower 48, and it marked the first time that two large sections of territory (more than 30 percent of the country each) experienced both exceptional cold and exceptional warmth in the same month, according to <a href="http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/temp-and-precip/uspa/?area=warm-cold&amp;year=2015&amp;month=2">data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration</a>. All-time records were set for the coldest month in dozens of Eastern cities, with Boston racking up more snow than the peaks of California’s Sierra Nevada. A single January snowstorm in Boston <a href="https://twitter.com/MetMikeWCVB/status/574745031015190528">produced more snow</a> than Anchorage has seen all winter. The discrepancy set off some <a href="https://twitter.com/NWSAnchorage/status/567050660080660481">friendly banter</a> recently between the Anchorage, Boston, and San Francisco offices of the National Weather Service.</p>
<p>Alaska is at the front lines of climate change. This year’s Iditarod has been rerouted—<a href="http://www.newsminer.com/opinion/editorials/iditarod-start-almost-here-race-start-tomorrow-will-be-second/article_9791e258-c55e-11e4-a1a8-87da633681ed.html"><em>twice</em></a>—due to the warm weather. The race traditionally starts in Anchorage, which has had <a href="https://twitter.com/DaveSnider/status/565417903034728448">near-record low snowfall</a> so far this winter. The city was <a href="https://twitter.com/NWSAnchorage/status/558069546893189122">without a single significant snowstorm</a> between October and late January, so race organizers decided to <a href="http://www.adn.com/article/20150306/iditarod-mushers-head-wet-sloppy-conditions-led-canadian">move the start</a> from the Anchorage area 360 miles north to Fairbanks. But when the Chena River, which was supposed to be part of the new route’s first few miles, <a href="http://www.newsminer.com/mushing/iditarod/officials-present-latest-plan-for-iditarod-s-restart-in-fairbanks/article_f1550350-c136-11e4-b7f9-0fa3ed6945ef.html">failed to sufficiently freeze</a>, the starting point had to move again, to another location in Fairbanks.</p>
<p>On Monday, Zappa and her dogs set out on the 1,000-mile race across Alaska as one of 78 mushers in this year’s Iditarod. A burst of cold and snow are in the forecast this week, but for most of the winter, the weather across the interior of the state has also been abnormally warm. To train, many teams of dogs and their owners had to travel, often “outside”—away from Alaska. Zappa ended up going to the mountains of Wyoming.</p>
<p>For Iditarod entrants, the warm weather can mean life or death. Last month, along the Iditarod route, a snowmobiler <a href="http://irondog.tv/video-racing-across-open-water-this-is-the-last-thing-you-want-to-happen/">had to be rescued</a> after unknowingly trying to cross open water. A recent study said that Alaska’s rivers and melting glaciers are now outputting <a href="http://www.adn.com/article/20150222/thanks-glacial-melt-freshwater-runoff-gulf-alaska-exceeds-output-mississippi-river">more water than the Mississippi River</a>. Last year was Alaska’s <a href="https://twitter.com/NWSAlaska/status/553262016857513984">warmest on record</a> and the warm weather has continued <a href="https://twitter.com/Climatologist49/status/554397329877258241">right on into 2015</a>. This winter, Anchorage has <a href="http://www.latimes.com/nation/la-na-baked-alaska-20150103-story.html">essentially transformed</a> into a less sunny version of Seattle. As of March 9, the city has received less than one-third of its normal amount of snow. In its place? Rain. <a href="https://twitter.com/NWSAnchorage/status/554737842769768448">Lots of rain</a>. In fact, schools in the Anchorage area <a href="http://www.adn.com/article/20140128/forget-snowfall-winter-rain-becoming-new-normal-alaska-and-arctic">are now more likely</a> to cancel school due to rain and street flooding than cold and snow.</p>
<p>Of course, it wasn’t always this way. Alaska’s recent surge of back-to-back warm winters comes after <a href="http://news.blogs.cnn.com/2012/01/09/alaska-town-digging-its-way-out-after-record-18-feet-of-snow/">a record-snowy 2012</a>, in which the National Guard was employed to help dig out buried towns. Then, about two years ago, something in the climate system switched. The state’s recent brush with extreme weather is more than just year-to-year weather variability. Alaska is at the point where the long-term trend of warming has begun to trump seasonal weather fluctuations. A recent <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2015/03/05/el_ni_o_it_s_here_and_it_will_boost_global_warming_to_record_highs.html">shift toward warmer offshore ocean temperatures</a> is essentially adding more fuel to the fire, moving the state toward more profound tipping points like the irreversible loss of permafrost and increasingly violent weather. If the current warm ocean phase (which began in 2014) holds for a decade or so, as is typical, Alaska will quickly become a different place.</p>
<p>The Pacific Ocean near Alaska has been record-warm for months now. This year is off to a <a href="https://twitter.com/NWSJuneau/status/567117859663253504">record-wet start</a> in Juneau. Kodiak has recorded its warmest winter on record. A sudden burst of ocean warmth <a href="http://nca2014.globalchange.gov/highlights/regions/alaska">has affected statewide weather before</a>, but this time feels different, residents say. In late February, National Weather Service employees spotted <a href="https://twitter.com/NWSFairbanks/status/570272677346177024?s=03">thundersnow</a> in Nome—a city just 100 miles south of the Arctic Circle. “As far as I know, that’s unprecedented,” Thoman told me. Thunderstorms of any kind require a level of atmospheric energy that’s rarely present in cold climates. To get that outside of the summer is incredibly rare everywhere, let alone in Alaska.</p>
<p>Climate scientists are starting to link the combination of melting sea ice and warm ocean temperatures to <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/future_tense/2014/01/28/sneauxmageddon_polar_vortex_why_snow_s_melting_in_alaska_and_pelting_the.html">shifts in the jet stream</a>. For the past few winters, those shifts have brought <a href="https://twitter.com/CIMSS_Satellite/status/572172993180377088">surges of tropical moisture</a> toward southern Alaska via potent atmospheric rivers. This weather pattern has endured so long it’s even <a href="http://www.weatherwest.com/archives/tag/ridiculously-resilient-ridge">earned its own name</a>: the Ridiculously Resilient Ridge. The persistent area of high pressure stretching from Alaska to California has shunted wintertime warmth and moisture northward into the Arctic while the eastern half of the continent is plunged into the deep freeze, polar-vortex style.</p>
<p>The warm water is making its way north into the Arctic Ocean, too, where as of early March, sea ice levels are at their <a href="http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=2929">record lowest for the date</a>. The resurgent heating of the Pacific (we’re officially in an El Ni<em>&ntilde;</em>o year now) is also expected to give a boost to global warming <a href="http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=2923&amp;cm_ven=tw-jm">over the next few years</a> by releasing years of pent-up oceanic energy into the atmosphere, pushing even more warm water toward the north, melting Alaska from all sides.</p>
<p>That means Alaska’s weather, according to one Alaska meteorologist, is “broken.” Dave Snider, who reports statewide weather daily for the National Weather Service’s Alaska office in Anchorage, tweeted the sentiment <a href="https://twitter.com/DaveSnider/status/555803270585663489">back in mid-January</a>. Snider emphasizes that this isn’t the official view of the National Weather Service, “of course.” Snider told me he made the comment “sort of in jest” but points to the nearly snow-free Iditarod start as evidence.</p>
<p>Here’s another example he could have used: In early November, Super Typhoon Nuri <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/future_tense/2014/11/07/alaska_storm_in_bering_sea_a_post_tropical_cyclone_is_about_to_grow_to_the.html">morphed</a> into a huge post-tropical cyclone, passing through the Aleutians very near Shemya Island on its way to becoming Alaska’s <a href="http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/monster-storm-to-pound-bering/36927708">strongest storm on record</a>. Despite winds near 100 mph, Shemya emerged <a href="http://www.adn.com/article/20141108/weather-service-no-damage-reported-bering-sea-storm">relatively unscathed</a>. A few days later, the remnants of that storm actually <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/future_tense/2014/11/10/the_omega_block_your_wintry_companion_for_at_least_the_next_two_weeks.html">altered the jet stream</a> over much of the continent, ushering in a highly amplified “omega block” pattern that dramatically boosted temperatures across the state and sent wave after wave of Arctic cold toward the East Coast. Barrow was briefly warmer than Dallas or Atlanta.</p>
<p>The warm weather isn’t all bad news. The city of Anchorage <a href="http://www.adn.com/article/20150222/anchorage-lack-snow-saves-city-heap-money-maintenance">has saved</a> an estimated $1 million on snow removal this year and is instead pouring the money into fixing potholes and other backlogged maintenance issues. But getting around the rest of the state hasn’t been so easy.</p>
<p>There are few roads in rural Alaska, so winter travel is often done by snowmobiles over frozen rivers. Not this year. Warm temperatures in February led to <a href="https://twitter.com/NWSAnchorage/status/568187949319200769">thin ice and open water</a> in the southwest part of the state near Galena and Bethel. David Hulen, managing editor for the <em>Alaska Dispatch News</em> in Anchorage, has spent nearly 30 years in the state. He says the freeze-thaw cycle is out of whack, “changing the nature of the place.” Usually, things freeze in the fall and unfreeze in the spring; this winter, they’ve seen a nearly constant back-and-forth between freezing and thawing.</p>
<p>That’s made it difficult for skiers and those enjoying other outdoor activities, like riding fat tire bikes attuned to the snow. Julie Saddoris, of the Bike Me Anchorage Meetup, says attendance in her group is down this winter. Because of the lack of snow and ubiquitous slick ice, “riding conditions [are] very poor and hazardous,” she wrote in an email. Hulen agrees that it’s been frustrating. “I mean, what’s living in Alaska if it’s not cold and snowy?”</p>
<p>Those are city problems. Meanwhile, along the state’s west coast, some native coastal villages are facing an existential threat, as sea levels rise in response to the warm water. Earlier this winter, the <em>Washington Post</em>’s climate reporter Chris Mooney <a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2015/02/24/the-remote-alaskan-village-that-needs-to-be-relocated-due-to-climate-change/?postshare=3461425216195635">visited Kivalina</a>, one of the <a href="http://commerce.state.ak.us/dnn/Portals/4/pub/ClimateChange.pdf">six villages</a> considering plans to relocate due to climate change. “Here, climate change is less a future threat and more a daily force, felt in drastic changes to weather, loss of traditional means of sustenance&nbsp;like whale hunting, and the&nbsp;literal vanishing of land,” Mooney wrote. Another village, Newtok, is a bit further along in the relocation process, with construction on their new village—Mertarvik—<a href="http://commerce.state.ak.us/dnn/dcra/PlanningLandManagement/NewtokPlanningGroup.aspx">already under way</a>.</p>
<p>The rapid change has brought U.S. Arctic policy to a crossroads. The United States is set to take over a rotating two-year chairmanship of the Arctic Council next month—a mini–United Nations of the north—and has listed climate change as <a href="https://eos.org/articles/u-s-readies-aggressive-arctic-council-agenda">a top agenda item</a>. At the same time, it’s also laying the ground rules for <a href="http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2015/02/21/3625602/arctic-drilling-rules/">increased oil and gas exploration</a>. In a warmer 21<sup>st</sup> century, Alaska may be more important than ever—which explains the <a href="http://www.ktva.com/alaska-watches-as-russia-plans-to-build-its-arctic-military-presence-477/">increased pressure</a> for a boosted military presence there.</p>
<p>But for now, the most visible change is still in the shifting habitats of the fish, birds, trees, and animals. Permafrost still covers <a href="http://www.alaskacenters.gov/permafrost.cfm">85 percent</a> of the state, but “almost everywhere, the depth of the active layer is increasing over the last few decades,” said Thoman. Since the active layer—the zone of soil above the permafrost that thaws out each summer—now penetrates deeper down, that means landforms are shifting, lakes are draining, and new forests are springing up.</p>
<p>Patricia Owen is a biologist at Denali National Park and Preserve who studies grizzly bears. Last winter, warm weather brought blueberry blossoms earlier than normal. The blossoms then froze, making foraging for food more challenging for bears. Mother bears need to have good health in the fall to support their cubs during the long winter months of hibernation. Owen is seeing evidence of other changes within Denali: More episodes of freezing rain are having a big impact on sheep, which have to scrape through ice to eat. In low snow years like this one, wolves seem to suffer, since caribou and moose can escape more quickly. Studying these changes is difficult because the scientists don’t want to disturb the animals more than necessary. “It takes awhile to really see the effect of some of these things,” Owen told me.</p>
<p>Recent warming appears to have pushed Denali’s poplar forests across a threshold toward rapid expansion. Carl Roland, a Denali plant ecologist who has <a href="http://denalirepeatphotos.uaf.edu:8080/index.php/about-the-project/">compiled a trove of repeat photographs</a> around the park spanning decades of environmental change, says that what he’s seeing is “dramatic.” Still, says Roland, “it’s kind of a complicated story, because you have patches of the landscape that have remained pretty much exactly the same, and then you’ve got other patches that have gone off in this other direction.”</p>
<p>Once the permafrost goes, Roland says to expect a “regime shift” in the park and across the state. The northward spread of tree-killing insects is also a “really big unknown” in interior Alaska. Last spring, <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/future_tense/2014/05/27/funny_river_fire_spruce_beetles_climate_change_helped_create_huge_alaskan.html">a huge forest fire</a> in a beetle kill area of the Kenai Peninsula sent smoke plumes hundreds of miles northward toward Fairbanks.</p>
<p>For southern Alaska, fire season has been coming earlier in recent years, and 2015 <a href="http://fire.ak.blm.gov/content/weather/outlooks/monthly.pdf">looks to be no exception</a>. Melvin Slater, a representative for the Alaska Fire Service, told me that the agency is making changes in response to the warm, nearly snow-free winter. “AFS will accelerate the availability of eight smokejumpers and a smokejumper aircraft by April 9 with an additional eight smokejumpers available by April 16,” Slater wrote in an email. That’s about 30 days earlier than normal. A few years ago, the Alaska Division of Forestry statutorily moved the start of the fire season up from May 1 to April 1 “as a result of climate change,” Tim Mowry, a division spokesman told me. The changes were intended to elicit “a sense of urgency,” Mowry says.</p>
<p>But there’s a kink in these plans. Alaska government is strongly dependent on oil revenue—and falling fuel prices are forcing budget cuts to state agencies like the Division of Forestry.</p>
<p>But for now, the Iditarod will continue. “Honestly, I’m thinking of moving, whether it be further north in Alaska or somewhere where they can guarantee snow,” Zappa said. “If you’re going to be a dog musher, you need snow. That’s the bottom line.”</p>
<p><em>This article is part of Future Tense, a collaboration among&nbsp;</em><a href="http://www.asu.edu/?feature=research"><em>Arizona State University</em></a><em>, </em><a href="http://www.newamerica.org/"><em>New America</em></a><em>, and&nbsp;</em><strong><em>Slate</em></strong><em>.&nbsp;Future Tense explores the ways emerging technologies affect society, policy, and culture. To read more, visit the&nbsp;</em><a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/future_tense.html"><em>Future Tense blog</em></a><em>&nbsp;and the&nbsp;</em><a href="http://www.slate.com/articles/technology/future_tense.html"><em>Future Tense home page</em></a><em>. You can also&nbsp;<a href="http://www.twitter.com/futuretensenow">follow us on Twitter</a>.</em></p>Wed, 11 Mar 2015 20:47:33 GMThttp://www.slate.com/articles/technology/future_tense/2015/03/climate_change_is_already_affecting_alaska_s_weather.htmlEric Holthaus2015-03-11T20:47:33ZIf the Last Frontier is the canary in the climate coal mine, we’re in trouble.TechnologyAlaska Is the Canary in the Climate Coal Mine, and That Bird Is in Trouble100150311012climate changeglobal warmingweatheralaskaEric HolthausFuture Tensehttp://www.slate.com/articles/technology/future_tense/2015/03/climate_change_is_already_affecting_alaska_s_weather.htmlfalsefalsefalseAlaska is the canary in the climate coal mine, and its weather has never been stranger:Alaska Is the Canary in the Climate Coal Mine, and That Bird Is in TroubleCourtesy of Alaska DOT&PF via ReutersThe Richardson Highway as it runs through the Keystone Canyon on Jan. 25, 2014, in the aftermath of an avalanche near Valdez, Alaska. Traffic to the town was cut off from the rest of the state after a series of avalanches blocked the only road into the coastal community.El Ni&ntilde;o Has Arrived, and It Could Produce the Warmest Year on Recordhttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2015/03/05/el_ni_o_it_s_here_and_it_will_boost_global_warming_to_record_highs.html
<p>Prepare to brush up on your <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mkSRUf02gu8">Chris Farley impressions</a>. After months and months of <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/future_tense/2014/11/06/el_ni_o_prediction_2014_why_weather_forecasters_were_wrong_about_a_super.html">teasing forecasters</a>, El Ni&ntilde;o has officially arrived, and it’s set to boost global warming to new record levels.</p>
<p>National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration climate scientists reported the switch to official El Ni&ntilde;o status in their <a href="http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_disc_mar2015/ensodisc.html">latest technical bulletin</a> on Thursday, and outlined their decision process in <a href="http://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/march-2015-enso-discussion-el-ni%C3%B1o-here">a blog post</a>.</p>
<p>Here’s what you need to know:</p>
<p><strong>What is El Ni&ntilde;o, anyway?</strong></p>
<p>El Ni&ntilde;o is one of the Earth’s most powerful climate signals, with the ability to shift weather patterns worldwide. It typically happens only two or three times in a decade, and its most important feature is its predictability. Once in place, El Ni&ntilde;os normally linger for months, giving affected regions time to prepare for impacts.</p>
<p>Technically, for an official El Ni&ntilde;o episode, NOAA requires five consecutive three-month periods of abnormal warming of the so-called <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/indices/oceanic-indices-map.gif">Nino3.4 region</a> of the mid-tropical Pacific, about halfway between Indonesia and Peru. It usually takes a self-reinforcing link-up between the ocean and the atmosphere to achieve this, and it finally appears the atmosphere is playing its part.</p>
<p><strong>Is there anything special about this El Ni&ntilde;o?</strong></p>
<p>El Ni&ntilde;o transfers huge amounts of heat from the oceans to the atmosphere, and there are hints that this El Ni&ntilde;o, combined with the already very warm global oceans, could bring about a new phase in global warming. An associated slow-moving indicator of Pacific Ocean temperatures, called the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, <a href="http://www.weather5280.com/blog/2015/01/14/pdo-breaks-record-for-highest-positive-for-month-of-december/">reached record levels</a> in December and January. A persistently strong PDO is associated with cold winters in the East and drought in California—we’ve had both in abundance this year. Should the PDO stay strong, it’ll essentially join forces with El Ni&ntilde;o and increase the odds that 2015 will rank as the warmest year on record globally. Last fall I wrote that a PDO signal like we’re currently seeing could kick off <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/future_tense/2014/10/14/pacific_decadal_oscillation_we_may_see_two_el_ni_o_years_in_a_row.html">a surge of global warming</a> over the next five to 10 years.</p>
<p><strong>What does El Ni&ntilde;o mean for me?</strong></p>
<p>The 2015 El Ni&ntilde;o could bring a <a href="http://www.slate.com/articles/technology/future_tense/2014/04/el_nino_2014_2015_what_the_weather_pattern_means_for_60_plus_places.html">litany of weather effects across the world</a>, though NOAA cautions that it’s still pretty weak at this point so not much will immediately change.</p>
<p>In the United States, typical springtime impacts of El Ni&ntilde;o point toward wetter than normal conditions in California, the Southeast, and the East Coast. El Ni&ntilde;o years are also associated with heavy snowfall in the Northeast, which we’ve <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2015/02/06/boston_snow_storm_another_foot_is_on_the_way_also_freezing_cold.html">for sure had</a> already.</p>
<p>“This El Nino is likely too late and too weak to provide much relief for drought-stricken California,” NOAA’s Mike Halpert, one of the agency’s official El Ni&ntilde;o forecasters, said <a href="http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2015/20150305-noaa-advisory-elnino-arrives.html">in a statement</a>. Florida, on the other hand, has the strongest signal for short-term impacts—the next few months will likely be very rainy in the Sunshine State.</p>
<p><strong>Why now?</strong></p>
<p>In a <a href="https://vimeo.com/121314825">video briefing</a>, the International Research Institute for Climate and Society’s Tony Barnston, who helped make the decision official, explained that the slow build-up of warm water in the Pacific over the last several months has made it “a very unusual time to give an advisory for an El Ni&ntilde;o.” El Ni&ntilde;os usually start in mid-summer, not in early spring. This year’s sluggish onset may be because this year’s El Ni&ntilde;o isn’t happening in the typical way.</p>
<p>Close followers of the thermodynamics of the tropical Pacific (you know who you are) will note that borderline El Ni&ntilde;o conditions have been around unofficially way <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/future_tense/2014/06/04/el_ni_o_2014_data_from_australia_s_bureau_of_meteorology_suggest_it_s_here.html">back to last June</a>. Finally, in February, the trade winds began to weaken across a vast stretch of the Pacific, causing an accumulation of subsurface heating. Forecasters now believe that the ocean and atmosphere have joined forces in such a way that further warming and shifts in global weather patterns are likely—and that was the key to declaring an official start to El Ni&ntilde;o on Thursday.</p>
<p>Steve Zebiak, a Columbia University climate scientist who helped issue the first successful prediction of El Ni&ntilde;o in 1985, says he’s never seen anything like the run-up to the current El Ni&ntilde;o.</p>
<p>“There definitely are some questions here,” Zebiak told me in a phone interview. For awhile, Zebiak says that the run-up to this El Ni&ntilde;o was looking like that first successfully predicted event. In the last few months, though, things have changed. “Now we’re in a situation where I can’t think of a good analog for this entire past 12 months over many decades,” Zebiak said. He thinks climate change may be shifting where El Ni&ntilde;o forms—now closer to the central Pacific rather than near South America. The impacts of this shift aren’t yet fully understood, but this year will provide a great chance for further study.</p>
<p><strong>What’s next?</strong></p>
<p>Typical El Ni&ntilde;os last only for six or eight months, but we could be in for a long one this time, spanning parts of two years or more. By later this year, if forecasts hold, global temperatures should soar to new records, according to Zebiak. A consensus of dynamic climate models now show a <a href="https://twitter.com/EricHolthaus/status/573523316708806656">strengthening of El Ni&ntilde;o</a> through late summer, though the reliability of the forecast models—which change throughout the year—is typically at its lowest right about now.</p>
<p>Still, Zebiak says that if this El Ni&ntilde;o advances across the Pacific as is currently predicted, 2015 would likely be the warmest year ever measured globally.</p>Thu, 05 Mar 2015 22:21:14 GMThttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2015/03/05/el_ni_o_it_s_here_and_it_will_boost_global_warming_to_record_highs.htmlEric Holthaus2015-03-05T22:21:14ZbriefingEl Ni&ntilde;o Has Arrived, and It Could Produce the Warmest Year on Record227150305007Eric HolthausThe SlatestThe Slatesthttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2015/03/05/el_ni_o_it_s_here_and_it_will_boost_global_warming_to_record_highs.htmlfalsefalsefalseEl Niño has arrived, and it could produce the warmest year on record:El Niño Has Arrived, and It Could Produce the Warmest Year on RecordPhoto by VALERY HACHE/AFP/Getty ImagesGet ready for a long El Ni&ntilde;o.New Study Says Climate Change Helped Spark Syrian Civil Warhttp://www.slate.com/blogs/future_tense/2015/03/02/study_climate_change_helped_spark_syrian_civil_war.html
<p>By now, it’s pretty clear that we’re starting to see <a href="http://www.climatecentral.org/news/climate-change-evolving-role-in-extreme-weather-18501">visible manifestations</a> of climate change beyond far-off <a href="http://www.motherjones.com/environment/2014/05/west-antarctic-ice-sheet-collapse">melting ice sheets</a>. One of the most terrifying implications is the <a href="http://www.slate.com/articles/technology/future_tense/2014/04/david_titley_climate_change_war_an_interview_with_the_retired_rear_admiral.html">increasingly real threat</a> of wars sparked in part by global warming. New evidence says that Syria may be one of the first such conflicts.</p>
<p>We know <a href="http://www.smithsonianmag.com/innovation/is-a-lack-of-water-to-blame-for-the-conflict-in-syria-72513729/?no-ist">the basic story</a> in Syria by now: From 2006-2010, an unprecedented drought <a href="http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/WCAS-D-13-00059.1">forced the country</a> from a groundwater-intensive breadbasket of the region to a net food importer. Farmers abandoned their homes—school enrollment in some areas plummeted 80 percent—and flooded Syria’s cities, which were already struggling to sustain an influx of more than 1 million refugees from the conflict in neighboring Iraq. The Syrian government largely ignored <a href="http://www.irinnews.org/report/90442/syria-drought-pushing-millions-into-poverty">these warning signs</a>, helping sow discontent that ultimately spawned violent protests. The link from drought to war was prominently featured in <a href="http://yearsoflivingdangerously.com/story/climate-wars/">a Showtime documentary</a> last year. A preventable drought-triggered humanitarian crisis sparked the 2011 civil war, and eventually, ISIS.</p>
<p>A <a href="http://www.pnas.org/cgi/doi/10.1073/pnas.1421533112">new study</a> published Monday in the <em>Proceedings of the National Academies of Science</em> provides the clearest evidence yet that human-induced global warming made that drought more likely. The study is the first to examine the drought-to-war narrative in quantitative detail in any country, ultimately linking it to climate change.</p>
<p>“It’s a pretty convincing climate fingerprint,” said Retired Navy Rear Adm. David Titley, a meteorologist who’s now a professor at Penn State University. After decades of poor water policy, “there was no resilience left in the system.” Titley says, given that context, that the record-setting drought caused Syria to “break catastrophically.”</p>
<p>“It’s not to say you could predict ISIS out of that, but you just set everything up for something really bad to happen,” Titley told me in a phone interview. Given the new results, Titley says, “you can draw a very credible climate connection to this disaster we call ISIS right now.”</p>
<p>The study’s authors are clear that global warming did not directly cause Syria’s civil war—it took a mix of underlying social vulnerability and an antagonistic government to do that. But it does provide compelling evidence that, when combined with the effects of increased population pressure and the poor policies of the Assad regime, the drought made a bad situation worse.</p>
<p>Titley says that the connection between climate change and the Syrian conflict means it could be “a harbinger of where we may end up more in the future.” He has helped shape the U.S. military position on climate change to a more proactive one, casting climate change as a “threat multiplier” for national security. <a href="http://www.slate.com/articles/technology/future_tense/2014/04/david_titley_climate_change_war_an_interview_with_the_retired_rear_admiral.html">My interview with him last year</a> remains one of the most fascinating and terrifying conversations I’ve ever had.</p>
<p>The consistency of climate models made the eastern Mediterranean a great place to start looking for possible connections between human-cause climate change and conflict. The Middle East has already seen <a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2013/09/10/drought-helped-caused-syrias-war-will-climate-change-bring-more-like-it/">decades of drying</a>, which is expected to intensify for <a href="http://www.climatechange2013.org/images/figures/WGI_AR5_Fig11-14.jpg">the next 20 years</a> and <a href="http://www.climatechange2013.org/images/figures/WGI_AR5_Fig14-26.jpg">beyond</a> as a result of climate change.</p>
<p>Colin Kelley, a climate scientist at the University of California–Santa Barbara and the study’s lead author, said long-term climate trends made Syria’s 2006-2010 drought two to three times more likely, and future trends point in the same direction.</p>
<p>Of course, since 2011, the Syrian conflict has ballooned into a multinational war, with <a href="http://data.unhcr.org/syrianrefugees/regional.php">nearly 4 million refugees</a> across the region. Are they the world’s first climate change refugees due to conflict?</p>
<p>“Under international law, there’s no such thing as climate refugees,” said Marcus King, professor of international affairs at George Washington University and an expert in climate and security. “So far, the environment hasn’t been seen as an actor that’s able to persecute people.” But, he said, &nbsp;“I would certainly call them climate migrants. … There are other factors, but that’s the dominant factor.”</p>
<p><a href="http://www.slate.com/articles/technology/future_tense/2014/06/isis_water_scarcity_is_climate_change_destabilizing_iraq.html">Severe drought resumed</a> in late 2013, and ISIS has used the resulting water shortfall to its advantage. King says at one point last year, ISIS controlled all three major dams in Iraq, a feat that he says quickly motivated an enhanced U.S. military presence there.</p>
<p>Beyond the case of Syria, the new study provides a powerful tool for researchers interested in how human-induced <a href="http://www.newyorker.com/news/daily-comment/coming-water-wars">climate change may be affecting conflict worldwide</a>. King points specifically to Libya, Egypt, and Yemen as next potential fronts in climate change-fueled conflict. In general, climate change poses an increasing challenge for fragile states to provide stable services.</p>
<p>While violent conflict over water is far from likely in the United States, Kelley says “we need to be proactive.” Kelley says one of the biggest lessons that California can learn from Syria is: “Let’s not just assume that things will be fine.” <a href="http://www.slate.com/articles/technology/future_tense/2015/02/study_climate_change_may_bring_about_megadroughts_this_century.html">Recent research</a> showed that climate change will increase the risk of multidecadal “megadrought” in the West dramatically.</p>
<p>Titley likens the Syrian drought to “throwing a match into gasoline vapors.” In California, it’s more like “throwing match into diesel. It goes out.”</p>
<p>Until recently, climate and security experts have focused their research mostly on the humanitarian and disaster-relief implications of increasing extreme weather. “The Syrian conflict is one of the first instances of the dark side, the evil face of climate and security, not the last,” Titley said.</p>
<p>“I think, unfortunately, we will see more and more of these, and now the question is: Which one of these becomes the Titanic moment that grabs the world’s attention?”</p>Mon, 02 Mar 2015 20:20:00 GMThttp://www.slate.com/blogs/future_tense/2015/03/02/study_climate_change_helped_spark_syrian_civil_war.htmlEric Holthaus2015-03-02T20:20:00ZTechnologyNew Study Says Climate Change Helped Spark Syrian Civil War203150302004climate changesyriawarEric HolthausFuture TenseFuture Tensehttp://www.slate.com/blogs/future_tense/2015/03/02/study_climate_change_helped_spark_syrian_civil_war.htmlfalsefalsefalseNew study says climate change helped spark Syrian civil war.New Study Says Climate Change Helped Spark Syrian Civil WarPhoto by -/AFP/Getty ImagesSheep graze in drought-affected fields in Hasaka, Syria, on June 18, 2010.Watch Inhofe Throw a Snowball on the Senate Floor to Disprove Global Warminghttp://www.slate.com/blogs/future_tense/2015/02/26/inhofe_throws_a_snowball_on_senate_floor_to_disprove_global_warming_video.html
<p>During rambling remarks Thursday afternoon, James Inhofe of Oklahoma, the chairman of the Senate Environment and Public Works Committee, used a snowball as a prop on the Senate floor. The apparent purpose of this stunt: to show the recent spate of cold weather in the Northeast is a sign that <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/future_tense/2015/01/21/senate_votes_that_climate_change_is_real_but_doesn_t_agree_on_cause.html">human activity isn’t causing climate change</a>.</p>
<p>The snowball was brought to the Senate floor in a sealable plastic bag.</p>
<p>Inhofe began his speech with the snowball at his side on the speaker’s podium. After he was introduced, he removed it from the bag, held it in his hand, and said, “I ask the chair, you know what this is? It’s a snowball, just from outside here. So it’s very, very cold out. Very unseasonal. Mr. President, catch this.”</p>
<p>Inhofe then underhand tossed the snowball in the direction of Republican Sen. Bill Cassidy of Louisiana, who was presiding over the Senate at the time.</p>
<p>Reaction on Twitter was swift:</p>
<p>The stunt occurred around the same time as the Internet was <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2015/02/26/llammas_chase_video_watch_arizona_police_chase_two_escaped_llamas_outside.html">freaking out about some escaped llamas in Arizona</a>, so many may have missed it. The juxtaposition was not lost on some:</p>
<p>In his comments, Inhofe was his typical climate-denying self—which is frustrating because he wields significant power on U.S. climate policy in the newly Republican-controlled Senate. “I’m not a scientist, and don’t claim to be,” Inhofe said on Thursday. He then cited, among other things, a <em>Newsweek</em> article from 1975 (whose author recently <a href="http://www.slate.com/articles/technology/future_tense/2014/12/_1975_newsweek_article_on_global_cooling_how_climate_change_deniers_use.html">lamented</a> the way climate change deniers use his work), archaeological evidence, and Scriptures, in addition to the snowball, as evidence that refutes the claim that “somehow man is so important that he can change [the climate].”</p>
<p>Your move, llamas.</p>Thu, 26 Feb 2015 22:47:31 GMThttp://www.slate.com/blogs/future_tense/2015/02/26/inhofe_throws_a_snowball_on_senate_floor_to_disprove_global_warming_video.htmlEric Holthaus2015-02-26T22:47:31ZTechnologyWatch Inhofe Throw a Snowball on the Senate Floor to Disprove Global Warming203150226002global warmingclimate changeEric HolthausFuture TenseFuture Tensehttp://www.slate.com/blogs/future_tense/2015/02/26/inhofe_throws_a_snowball_on_senate_floor_to_disprove_global_warming_video.htmlfalsefalsefalseInhofe threw a snowball on Senate floor to disprove global warming. It didn't work. [VIDEO]Watch Inhofe Throw a Snowball on the Senate Floor to Disprove Global Warming1519028538001AQ~~,AAAAAASoY90~,_gW1ZHvKG_1U0LqDiRqg6y9siD7-Z_bO40827105880011519028538001AQ~~,AAAAAASoY90~,_gW1ZHvKG_1U0LqDiRqg6y9siD7-Z_bO40827105880011519028538001AQ~~,AAAAAASoY90~,_gW1ZHvKG_1U0LqDiRqg6y9siD7-Z_bO40827105880011519028538001AQ~~,AAAAAASoY90~,_gW1ZHvKG_1U0LqDiRqg6y9siD7-Z_bO40827105880011519028538001AQ~~,AAAAAASoY90~,_gW1ZHvKG_1U0LqDiRqg6y9siD7-Z_bO40827105880011519028538001AQ~~,AAAAAASoY90~,_gW1ZHvKG_1U0LqDiRqg6y9siD7-Z_bO40827105880011519028538001AQ~~,AAAAAASoY90~,_gW1ZHvKG_1U0LqDiRqg6y9siD7-Z_bO4082710588001Photo by Brendan Smialowski/Getty ImagesWASHINGTON - FEBRUARY 9: Sen. James M. Inhofe (R-OK) listens during a hearing of the House Energy and Commerce Committee's Energy and Power Subcommittee on Capitol Hill February 9, 2011 in Washington, DC. The committee held the hearing to discuss The Energy Tax Prevention Act of 2011 and its effect on the Clean Air Act's regulation of greenhouse gases. (Photo by Brendan Smialowski/Getty Images)The Eiffel Tower Now Has Its Very Own Wind Turbineshttp://www.slate.com/blogs/future_tense/2015/02/24/eiffel_tower_now_has_its_own_wind_turbines_photos.html
<p>As part of its “first major face-lift in 30 years,” the Eiffel Tower has a new set of wind turbines.</p>
<p>Earlier this year, the New York City–based renewable-energy design firm UGE installed the turbines, which are now spinning above the tower’s second level, 400 feet above ground level.</p>
<p>The installation of the turbines was tricky. Each of the two custom-built blades had to be <a href="http://www.urbangreenenergy.com/content/eiffel-tower">perilously lifted in place by rope</a>. I spoke with UGE’s Jan Gromadzki, who managed the installation from mid-January to early February.</p>
<p>“Being up there so high, we had crazy weather, we had rain, wind and snow while we were doing the installation,” Gromadzki told me. “Just being there on that landmark, watching tourists take photos of you, was a bit unconventional.”</p>
<p>The wind turbines aren’t big. They’re designed to produce about 10,000 kWh of electricity each year, enough to offset the tower’s electricity use in commercial areas—equivalent to the annual average use of a single U.S. home. <a href="http://www.urbangreenenergy.com/news/eiffel-tower-installs-uge-renewable-energy-system-part-monumental-retrofit">In addition to the wind turbines</a>, the tower’s environmentally friendly retrofit includes LED lighting and a rainwater recovery system that pipes water directly to toilets on site.</p>
<p>“It’s just two wind turbines. It’s definitely high-profile, but it’s not the biggest project we’ve done in terms of energy generation,” Gromadzki said.</p>
<p>Gromadzki noted that the Eiffel Tower is already 100 percent powered by renewable energy, which is produced off site as a part of <a href="http://www.paris-green.com/en/regional-strategy-climate-and-energy-framework/">a citywide goal</a> to reduce greenhouse gas emissions 25 percent by 2020 and 75 percent by 2050. So, the new wind turbines are more a publicly visible manifestation of that goal, rather than a meaningful step toward achieving it.</p>
<p>With a helical shape rather than the more well-known stick-and-pinwheel design, the turbines are also very visually striking, yet specially painted to blend in to the tower’s aesthetic. Gromadzki says the nontraditional design means that the turbines are virtually silent and don’t produce any vibrations.</p>
<p>“I didn’t think we’d be able to seem them that well,” said Gromadzki. “When they’re spinning, it’s pretty much all you can see because they’re the only moving parts on the tower, except for the elevators.”</p>
<p>For architectural purists wondering how such a 21<sup>st</sup>-century addition to a World Heritage Site could pass muster, the Eiffel Tower <a href="http://www.toureiffel.paris/en/everything-about-the-tower/themed-files/95.html">has long been at the forefront</a> of the technology of the day. It has functioned as a broadcast tower for more than 100 years—in 1903, Gustave Eiffel saved it from a planned demolition by turning it into a long-range radio antenna.</p>
<p>The energy retrofit on the iconic Paris landmark comes as the city prepares to host a major U.N. summit on climate change later this year, which is expected to culminate in the world’s first comprehensive agreement on climate change action.</p>
<p>“The project happened because the mayor’s office wanted it to happen. They really wanted to make a strong statement about renewable energy,” Gromadzki said. He added that the turbines were commissioned by the city in part to “show the world we’re moving in this direction.”</p>
<p>Asked by email what’s next for their design firm, UGE spokesperson Robin Carol said, “We have upcoming solar projects with&nbsp;Dropbox&nbsp;and Bayer which may be worth mentioning. Not the Arc d'Triomphe...yet :)”</p>Tue, 24 Feb 2015 22:21:01 GMThttp://www.slate.com/blogs/future_tense/2015/02/24/eiffel_tower_now_has_its_own_wind_turbines_photos.htmlEric Holthaus2015-02-24T22:21:01ZTechnologyThe Eiffel Tower Now Has Its Very Own Wind Turbines203150224004parisrenewable energywind energyEric HolthausFuture TenseFuture Tensehttp://www.slate.com/blogs/future_tense/2015/02/24/eiffel_tower_now_has_its_own_wind_turbines_photos.htmlfalsefalsefalseThe Eiffel Tower now has its very own wind turbines. [PHOTOS]The Eiffel Tower Now Has Its Very Own Wind TurbinesPhoto courtesy UGEAt 400 feet above ground level, installing the Eiffel Tower's new wind turbines was a tricky endeavor.Some Climate Engineering Ideas Are Insane. This One Isn’t.http://www.slate.com/blogs/future_tense/2015/02/24/free_air_carbon_capture_a_climate_engineering_idea_worth_considering.html
<p>According to <a href="https://medium.com/@nivo0o0/when-exponential-technological-progress-becomes-our-reality-74acafd65e26?source=tw-7f6a884c669-1424642588139">technological optimists</a>, in the next two or three decades, humanity will embark on a new era of possibility. Super-smart computers and other advances may even make certain types of less risky, large-scale climate actions a reality. Open any number of sci-fi books from the last few decades and you have an idea of how nanotechnology could make planetary-scale engineering possible. (<a href="http://www.slate.com/articles/health_and_science/onearth/2012/12/geoengineering_science_fiction_and_fact_kim_stanley_robinson_on_how_we_are.html">Kim Stanley Robinson’s work</a> comes immediately to mind.) Maybe swarms of self-replicating photosynthetic nanobots will be able to quickly and cheaply suck CO<sub>2</sub> from the air? What about coating all the world’s rooftops in organic solar panels? Or optimizing biofuel production from algae on the molecular scale? The possibilities are mind-boggling.</p>
<p>Earlier this month, delegates from virtually every country on Earth gathered in Geneva to produce <a href="http://unfccc.int/files/bodies/awg/application/pdf/negotiating_text_12022015@2200.pdf">the initial draft</a> of a global climate agreement to be signed in Paris later this year. In it were <a href="http://www.carbonbrief.org/blog/2015/02/briefing-the-15-options-for-net-zero-emissions-in-the-paris-climate-text/">several references</a> to net zero or negative emissions after 2050.</p>
<p>On our current path, humanity is still tracking at (<a href="http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn26243-world-on-track-for-worstcase-warming-scenario.html">or even slightly above</a>) the worst-case climate scenario laid out about a decade ago. The latest comprehensive update from the world’s climate scientists outlined <a href="http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn25413-no-option-left-but-to-suck-co2-out-of-air-says-ipcc.html">a best-case scenario</a> that is now likely to require a <a href="http://mashable.com/2014/11/03/new-global-warming-report-says-negative-emissions/">ramp-up of carbon capture-and-storage</a> to meet emissions targets. If it works, sucking excess carbon dioxide from the air could result in <a href="http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn25413-no-option-left-but-to-suck-co2-out-of-air-says-ipcc.html">net negative global carbon emissions by the end of the century</a>, and likely provide our best hope for returning concentrations to pre-industrial levels in our lifetimes. <em>If </em>it works.</p>
<p>We’re still far, far from that trajectory—emissions continue to increase each year at the global level. We’ve waited so long to address escalating carbon emissions that we must honestly consider research into these technologies. And, let’s face it, trying to shift humanity off fossil fuels any time soon feels increasingly like a lost cause.</p>
<p>And that means all options, no matter how crazy, <a href="http://www.technologyreview.com/review/418559/terraforming-earth/">should still be on the table</a>. With nanotechnology on the cusp, the future may hold more promise than we think. By 2042, when <a href="http://www.climatecentral.org/news/two-decades-until-carbon-budget-is-eaten-through-18051">current projections</a> show Earth’s carbon budget being depleted, computers may have gained capabilities we can only dream of now. (The carbon budget is the total amount of additional carbon dioxide that can be emitted by humanity for all time while maintaining a temperature rise of less than two degrees Celsius.)</p>
<p>To be clear, there are some technologies that pose greater threats than others. Raymond Pierrehumbert, <a href="http://www.slate.com/articles/health_and_science/science/2015/02/nrc_geoengineering_report_climate_hacking_is_dangerous_and_barking_mad.html">commenting in <strong><em>Slate</em></strong></a> on the recent National Research Council report on geoengineering, called intentionally interfering with the Earth’s incoming sunlight “wildly, utterly, howlingly barking mad.”</p>
<p>The report he referenced, the most comprehensive and authoritative to date on the subject, focuses on two <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2015/02/12/opinion/the-risks-of-climate-engineering.html?smid=tw-share">truly terrifying technologies</a>: injecting tiny reflective particles into the stratosphere and intentionally brightening clouds over the ocean. Both aim at increasing the planet’s albedo—the fraction of incoming sunlight that gets reflected into space. And both are sure to have effects beyond just reducing the planet’s temperature. Messing with the amount of sunlight the Earth receives in an attempt to turn down the planet’s thermostat could alter global weather patterns and won’t address other problems associated with a buildup of CO<sub>2</sub>, like ocean acidification.</p>
<p>This sort of geoengineering may help for a little while, but in all likelihood, it’s just going to make the problem worse in the long run. Plus, there are <a href="http://ourworld.unu.edu/en/the-frightening-politics-of-geoengineering">huge ethical questions</a> with this sort of technology. Who owns a technology that can affect the entire planet? Who decides when and where it is used?</p>
<p>Still, the fact is we are already geoengineering the climate by continuing to emit ever-increasing amounts of carbon. And there are much simpler strategies to reverse climate change. Instead of messing with sunlight, arguably the most promising technology reverses centuries of fossil-fuel burning by simply removing excess carbon dioxide from the air.</p>
<p>The problem is that free air capture—artificial trees—is still very expensive. A <a href="http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/energy/2011/08/110811-quest-to-capture-carbon-dioxide/">2011 study</a> put the cost of free air carbon capture at around $600 per ton. Meanwhile, on the European Union Emissions Trading Scheme, carbon costs $6 per ton. That means it’s still much, much cheaper to invest in other carbon-reducing technologies—like&nbsp;<a href="https://twitter.com/oliversacks/status/548893641616654337">planting real trees</a>. But like solar power, the cost of free air capture is rapidly decreasing. <a href="http://blogs.ei.columbia.edu/2011/06/28/response-to-aps-study-on-air-capture/">An exponential increase in efficiency</a> could overwhelm the nascent free air carbon capture industry and make it viable in just years. Still, the economics of free air carbon capture would likely require an economy-wide price on carbon in most of the world’s major economies—something that is obviously still missing in the United States.</p>
<p>But the biggest benefit to free air carbon capture is equity. If carbon dioxide can be removed from the atmosphere and stored safely (<a href="http://www.technologyreview.com/news/508051/a-cheap-trick-enables-energy-efficient-carbon-capture/">as solid blocks of limestone</a>, perhaps?), it’s essentially the same as putting the clock in reverse. But that doesn’t mean this technology is a get-out-of-jail-free card for current emissions. The oceans are an <a href="http://www.scientificamerican.com/article/rapidly-warming-oceans-set-to-release-heat-into-the-atmosphere/">excellent storage facility</a> for heat and carbon—warming seas are already <a href="http://www.latimes.com/science/environment/la-sci-0513-antarctic-ice-sheet-20140513-story.html">irreversibly melting</a> Antarctic glaciers from beneath, and it’s important to stop emitting new carbon into the atmosphere as soon as possible to limit further impacts.</p>Tue, 24 Feb 2015 15:48:42 GMThttp://www.slate.com/blogs/future_tense/2015/02/24/free_air_carbon_capture_a_climate_engineering_idea_worth_considering.htmlEric Holthaus2015-02-24T15:48:42ZTechnologySome Climate Engineering Ideas Are Insane. This One Isn’t.203150224002climate changetechnologyEric HolthausFuture TenseFuture Tensehttp://www.slate.com/blogs/future_tense/2015/02/24/free_air_carbon_capture_a_climate_engineering_idea_worth_considering.htmlfalsefalsefalseSome climate engineering ideas are insane. This one isn't. by @ericholthausSome Climate Engineering Ideas Are Insane. This One Isn’t.Photo by Koichi Kamoshida/Getty ImagesHow to clean up this mess?Watch This Drone Video of a Beautiful, Nearly-Frozen Niagara Fallshttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2015/02/20/niagara_falls_almost_frozen_very_beautiful_in_the_cold.html
<p>Just when you thought it couldn’t get colder: A blast of cold air <a href="http://www.usatoday.com/story/weather/2015/02/18/record-cold-sweeps-nation/23605335/">from Siberia</a> shattered records <a href="https://twitter.com/AriWeather/status/568752952460120065">in at least 60 cities</a> on Friday morning, from Detroit to Miami to <a href="https://twitter.com/NWSNewYorkNY/status/568793602387800064">New York City</a>. Washington, D.C. <a href="https://twitter.com/NWSEastern/status/568807903391404032">got down to 5 degrees</a>, its coldest February 20<sup>th</sup> since 1896. Sub-freezing temperatures reached <a href="https://twitter.com/NWSMiami/status/568770925220376576">deep into the swamps</a> of the Everglades in south Florida on <a href="https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/568630181025288194">one of the coldest mornings in decades</a>. In the core of the cold air, from roughly Toronto, Ontario to Knoxville, Tennessee, temperatures were some <a href="https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/568632739190026240">40 to 60 degrees colder than normal</a> for late February.</p>
<p>One upside to the these historic levels of bone-chilling cold: Really cool images! Canadian videographer Brent Foster captured the nearly frozen Niagara Falls on Friday morning via drone. Over email, Foster describes the experience:</p>
<blockquote>
It was a very cold shoot, but we were very careful to keep flight times to a minimum and to keep my hands as warm as possible to maintain full control and stay safe during the flight.&nbsp;I personally have never seen Niagara Falls frozen like that before. It was spectacular to capture.
</blockquote>
<p>Temperatures in Buffalo, just a few miles from the falls, have averaged more than 13 degrees below normal so far in February and more than 23 degrees below normal over the past week. That’s enough to create some breathtaking ice formations near the base of the falls. The rushing water that creates the falls can never completely freeze solid, though in extreme cases it can create an “ice bridge” between the U.S. and Canada. In 1912, that <a href="http://www.niagarafallsreview.ca/2012/02/04/niagara-falls-ice-bridge-tragedy-100-years-later">ice bridge collapsed</a>, killing several tourists that had walked out onto it. (So far, we’re not in ice bridge territory.)</p>
<p>As the climate warms, a frozen Niagara will surely become increasingly rare. Even this current cold snap is somewhat of a fluke—nationwide, there have been <a href="https://twitter.com/ClimateCentral/status/568799766848491522">five times as many record highs</a> so far in 2015 than record lows, with the western U.S. locked into persistent warmth.</p>
<p>No weather post these days can go without mentioning Boston, which has <a href="https://twitter.com/NWSAnchorage/status/567566488517619712">essentially swapped climates</a> with Anchorage, Alaska, this winter. This has led to some <a href="http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/snow-removal-boston-northeast/42028195">radical snow removal plans</a> amid massively growing piles <a>tall enough to pose a danger to aircraft</a>. After considering more elaborate solutions—say, <a href="http://what-if.xkcd.com/130/">a shoulder-mounted flamethrower</a>, which turns out to be not very efficient—Randall Munroe, who lives in Boston and writes the xkcd comic strip, <a href="http://what-if.xkcd.com/130/">calculated</a> that it’s probably best to just keep trying to shovel the snow out of the way.</p>
<p>Unfortunately, this ridiculously cold weather <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2015/02/19/freezing_cold_temperatures_hit_record_lows_in_missouri_and_kentucky.html">isn’t going anywhere</a>. A persistent kink in the jet stream is sending wave after wave of Arctic air plunging toward the East Coast, a pattern that’s expected to last <a href="https://twitter.com/EricHolthaus/status/568560601657528320">well into March</a>.</p>Fri, 20 Feb 2015 19:38:13 GMThttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2015/02/20/niagara_falls_almost_frozen_very_beautiful_in_the_cold.htmlEric Holthaus2015-02-20T19:38:13ZbriefingWatch This Drone Video of a Beautiful, Nearly-Frozen Niagara Falls227150220005Eric HolthausThe SlatestThe Slatesthttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2015/02/20/niagara_falls_almost_frozen_very_beautiful_in_the_cold.htmlfalsefalsefalseWatch This Drone Video of a Beautiful, Nearly-Frozen Niagara FallsWatch This Drone Video of a Beautiful, Nearly-Frozen Niagara FallsPhoto by Lindsay DeDario/ReutersA partially frozen American Falls in sub freezing temperatures is seen in Niagara Falls, Ontario February 17, 2015.It’s Colder in North Carolina Than in Northern Alaska. Also, It’s Freezing.http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2015/02/19/freezing_cold_temperatures_hit_record_lows_in_missouri_and_kentucky.html
<p>A Siberian blast—seriously, <a href="https://twitter.com/JavaheriCNN/status/568473486202507264">this air is from Siberia</a>—has turned the eastern U.S. into an icebox featuring the most extreme cold of anywhere on Earth <a href="https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/568442595090653185">right now</a>. Looking ahead, there’s plenty more where that came from.</p>
<p>On Thursday morning, Cape Girardeau, Missouri <a href="https://twitter.com/JRukavinaWPSD/status/568477004221132800">set a new all-time record low</a>—for any date, ever—of 19 degrees below zero. Nearby Paducah, Kentucky, which hit 10 below, broke its daily record low by 11 degrees—its third record low in as many days. With Thursday’s high temperature not even expected to reach double digits, it hasn’t been this cold in Chicago this late in winter <a href="https://twitter.com/NWSChicago/status/567862297772699648">since 1963</a>.</p>
<p>All this cold has led to a rapid freeze-up of the Great Lakes—<a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2015/02/19/february-cold-could-push-great-lakes-to-record-ice-cover/">quickly exceeding the pace</a> even of last year’s prolonged Arctic blasts. With barely any break in between massive snowstorms for nearly a month now, the snow pile that’s accumulating next to the airport in Portland, Maine has grown so high <a href="http://mashable.com/2015/02/19/portland-snow-dump-aircraft/">it’s starting to interfere with landing aircraft</a>.</p>
<p>Friday will be even colder than Thursday for most of the East. The <em>Washington Post</em>’s Capital Weather Gang blog <a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2015/02/19/d-c-area-forecast-arctic-blast-ushers-in-record-cold-weekend-wintry-mix-still-full-of-options/">is forecasting</a> a daily record low on Friday morning near zero—which would break the current record of 8 degrees set in 1896. What’s more, should the temperature fall below zero degrees, <a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2015/02/18/february-cold-has-already-been-historic-and-thursday-and-friday-may-be-more-extreme/">it would be</a> the coldest day in the nation’s capital since the mid-1990s.</p>
<p>The East Coast freeze isn’t just in the north. Weather this cold is exceedingly rare in South Florida, but Miami will only be a few degrees above freezing on Friday morning. Large sections of the Everglades—all the way down to the southern tip of the state—are predicted to briefly freeze.</p>
<p>Meanwhile, continued warmth in the West has been at least as extreme as the spine-tingling cold in the East. It’s been <a href="https://twitter.com/akrherz/status/568522160941109248">nearly two months</a> since some parts of the West last saw a colder-than-average day. The lack of snowpack at even the highest elevations is making California’s mountains <a href="https://twitter.com/NWSHanford/status/568286823719440385">look more like August than February</a>. The warmth in the West has caused a <a href="http://bigstory.ap.org/article/e0a47c98990d4dd3badd7634cce4e1ee/winter-weather-both-toasty-and-cold-tale-2-nations">serious case of snow envy</a>, with would-be entrepreneurs <a href="https://medium.com/@kwing/why-were-not-shipping-bostons-snow-to-california-9cff9b4670c3">hatching plans</a> for a Boston-to-California snow-delivery service. Through mid-February, San Francisco is <a href="https://twitter.com/NWSBayArea/status/567936871159894016/photo/1">on pace</a> for the city’s warmest winter in history; in Boston, 2015 is off to <a href="https://twitter.com/splillo/status/568535694177497088">a record cold pace</a>.</p>
<p>In my search for the state with the coldest current weather, Alaska <a href="https://twitter.com/EricHolthaus/status/568456205066072065">barely cracked the top 10</a> on Thursday morning. It’s colder in North Carolina than in northern Alaska.</p>
<p>With essentially <a href="http://www.weatherwest.com/archives/tag/ridiculously-resilient-ridge">the same continental-scale weather pattern</a> locked in place for most of the last two years, winter weather maps don’t have much variation: It’s red in the West, blue in the East. That pattern can be blamed on a variety of physical causes: a wavier-than-normal jet stream, hotter-than-average ocean temperatures off the Pacific Coast, melting Arctic sea ice linked to human-induced climate change, <a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2014/11/20/snowed-under-and-frozen-over-u-s-weather-is-off-the-rails-but-why/">and more</a>. Despite the persistent extreme cold in the East, <a href="https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/568512990049275905">North America’s</a> still running a fever at the same rate as <a href="http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/2015/1">the rest of the globe</a>.</p>
<p>Two more chances for additional snowfall are coming up in the next few days for hard-hit New England, with two to four inches of snow and ice this weekend in Boston followed by <a href="https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/568480475200790528">a more substantial threat</a> next Wednesday. In between (and, until at least early March), there’ll be more major Arctic blasts of cold air. But at this point, you could have predicted that.</p>Thu, 19 Feb 2015 23:34:00 GMThttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2015/02/19/freezing_cold_temperatures_hit_record_lows_in_missouri_and_kentucky.htmlEric Holthaus2015-02-19T23:34:00ZbriefingIt’s Colder in North Carolina Than in Northern Alaska. Also, It’s Freezing.227150219009Eric HolthausThe SlatestThe Slatesthttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2015/02/19/freezing_cold_temperatures_hit_record_lows_in_missouri_and_kentucky.htmlfalsefalsefalseIt's freezing:It’s Colder in North Carolina Than in Northern Alaska. Also, It’s Freezing.Photo by Andy Lyons/Getty ImagesRicky Carter waves to cars as he stands and advertises for a tax preperation company in the snow and cold in Louisville, Kentucky. &nbsp;Here We Go Again: Another Blizzard Is Headed for New Englandhttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2015/02/13/blizzard_coming_hurricane_force_winds_snow_and_whiteout_conditions_heading.html
<p>Hurricane-force winds, 2 feet of accumulation, whiteout conditions, thundersnow. For winter-weary New England, this is starting to feel routine.</p>
<p>Another blizzard looks likely to hit the Northeast this weekend, with Boston racking up around a foot of new snow along with very strong winds that could lead to some big snow drifts. Conditions are going to be absolutely brutal throughout most of coastal New England, especially in Maine where the storm’s full force is expected.</p>
<p>Boston is quickly approaching its snowiest winter on record—in barely a month’s time. On Thursday*, the city <a href="https://twitter.com/NWSBoston/status/566025690588647424">broke</a> its all-time February snow record of 41.6 inches, and there are still 16 days left in the month.</p>
<p>The National Weather Service has issued <a href="https://twitter.com/EricHolthaus/status/565991482142633984">blizzard watches</a> for the entire New England coastline north of Cape Cod, where states of emergency are still in effect as the region struggles with record-setting amounts of snow already on the ground. Another round of system-wide transportation shutdowns—by road, rail, and air—is likely from Boston to Portland, Maine.</p>
<p>With a central pressure equivalent to a category 2 or 3 hurricane at its peak, this storm will rival the “<a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2015/01/26/blizzard_2015_latest_updates_on_the_east_coast_snow_storm.html">Blizzard of 2015</a>” that hit just a few weeks ago and be as big and windy as a hurricane. In fact, <a href="https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/566271629647683585">weather models show</a> the storm developing a hurricane-like “eye” feature late Sunday. The storm’s <a href="https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/566274311783084032">huge overall size</a> may rival that of Superstorm Sandy as it approaches the Canadian Maritimes.</p>
<p>After the coming week is over, I’m confident in saying that New England will have completed a month of winter beyond any at least since the United States became a country. The only thing to rival this experience is perhaps <a href="http://www.newenglandhistoricalsociety.com/great-snow-of-1717/">the Great Snow of 1717</a>, rumored to have prompted some households to burn their furniture for warmth because they couldn’t make it out the door.</p>
<p>Sunday’s blizzard will begin as a swirl of intensely cold air falling like a bowling ball out of the Arctic.</p>
<p>The storm will wait until it’s offshore of New England to explosively intensify, gaining energy from the <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2015/02/10/boston_snow_storms_they_keep_coming.html">warmer-than-normal Atlantic</a>. Weather models are still a bit uncertain about some of the storm’s details as it peaks on Sunday, in part because there’s <a href="http://www.wsi.com/blog/aviation/another-blockbuster-in-the-cards-for-the-northeast/">rarely been a storm that looks like this</a> in advance.</p>
<p>For those in Massachusetts increasingly accustomed to 2- and 3-foot megastorms, this one may actually come as a relief. Blizzards don’t require record levels of snow to do their blizzardy thing, and for some, the biggest story of Sunday’s storm will be wind, not snowfall. The National Weather Service has issued a high wind watch for gusts up to 60 mph for most of coastal New England, but possibly exceeding 75 mph for exposed areas like Cape Cod, where occasional <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/future_tense/2014/11/13/lake_effect_thundersnow_video_from_ohio_opens_winter_with_a_bang.html">thundersnow</a> may also occur.</p>
<p>Factoring in lingering uncertainty, there could be anywhere from four to 16 inches of new snow in Boston by Sunday night, though 10 inches is <a href="http://www.weather.gov/box/winter">most likely</a>. The wide range is due to the potential for regional snow bands to form once again, which could create sharp differences in snow accumulation over distances of 10 or 20 miles. New York City will be essentially shut-out again, with only two to four inches there.</p>
<p>Should the storm track a bit closer to the coast than currently forecast, it could produce two feet of new snow for coastal Maine and perhaps even more for Nova Scotia. Parts of Maine have even more snow on the ground right now than Boston does, and after this storm the snowpack there could be approaching 100 inches—a truly astonishing figure.</p>
<p>On the heels of Sunday’s blizzard will be some of the coldest air the region has seen in years, followed by another chance of accumulating snow on Tuesday and Wednesday. Longer-range weather models are hinting at a welcome break in the parade of snowstorms after that.</p>
<p>The National Weather Service in New York City said “it seems unlikely” for temperatures to reach above the freezing point at any time during the upcoming week. The last time New York City dropped to zero degrees Fahrenheit was January 27, 1994. It could happen again on Sunday night.</p>
<p>Meanwhile, in the sun-soaked West, <a href="http://www.sfgate.com/bayarea/article/Winter-heat-wave-smacks-Bay-Area-6077754.php">record highs are expected</a> in California, Yellowstone National Park’s grizzly bears are <a href="https://news.vice.com/article/yellowstones-grizzly-bears-are-already-emerging-from-hibernation-and-warm-weather-could-be-to-blame">coming out of hibernation</a>, and Alaska’s Iditarod sled dog race <a href="http://www.usatoday.com/story/weather/2015/02/11/iditarod-race-alaska-snow-fairbanks/23247145/">has been re-routed</a> for only the second time in history due to lack of snow. Maybe they should start the race in Boston instead.</p>
<p><em><strong>Correction, Feb. 13, 2015: </strong>This post originally misstated that Boston broke its all-time February snow record on Sunday. </em>&nbsp;</p>Fri, 13 Feb 2015 19:27:22 GMThttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2015/02/13/blizzard_coming_hurricane_force_winds_snow_and_whiteout_conditions_heading.htmlEric Holthaus2015-02-13T19:27:22ZbriefingAnother Blizzard Is Headed for New England, This Time With Hurricane-Force Winds227150213006Eric HolthausThe SlatestThe Slatesthttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2015/02/13/blizzard_coming_hurricane_force_winds_snow_and_whiteout_conditions_heading.htmlfalsefalsefalseAnother Blizzard Is Headed for New England, This Time With Hurricane-Force WindsAnother Blizzard Is Headed for New England, This Time With Hurricane-Force WindsPhoto by Jared Wickerham/Getty ImagesGet ready for more.The United States of Megadroughthttp://www.slate.com/articles/technology/future_tense/2015/02/study_climate_change_may_bring_about_megadroughts_this_century.html
<p>When it comes to drought in the West, we ain’t seen nothin’ yet. That’s the conclusion from <a href="http://www.sciencemag.org/lookup/10.1126/sciadv.1400082">a new study</a> that links an increasing risk of decades-long drought episodes in the western United States to human-induced climate change. The study predicts drought severity outside the bounds of what’s thought to have occurred over the past 1,000 years, based on local tree-ring records.</p>
<p>“It’s certainly not good news,” said co-author Jason Smerdon, a climate scientist at Columbia University’s Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory. The study was published Thursday in the inaugural issue of <em>Science Advances, </em>an open-access journal from AAAS, the same publisher as <em>Science</em>.</p>
<p>Smerdon’s study is the first to examine the future risk of “megadrought” in the southwest and central United States in the context of historical episodes of drought in the same regions. Smerdon’s study suggests that the coming years are likely to see droughts worse than the epic dry periods that are thought to have caused <a href="http://www.yaleclimateconnections.org/2009/04/lessons-from-lost-anasazi/">profound changes to human settlement</a> in the region over the last millennium.</p>
<p>“They’re ‘mega’ because they are droughts that lasted in these regions for multiple decades,” said Smerdon in an interview with <strong><em>Slate</em></strong>. “We haven’t seen anything like this since at least the 1400s.” In comparison, the <a href="http://www.slate.com/topics/t/thirsty_west.html">current California drought</a> is four years old, though drought has been present in most of the last 15 years somewhere in the West.</p>
<p>Drought, especially the kind that affects agriculture, can be thought of as a balance between water supply (precipitation) and water demand (uptake by plants and people), the latter of which is strongly driven by evaporation rates linked to temperature.</p>
<p>Smerdon’s research suggests that rising temperatures connected to climate change—not necessarily a decrease in precipitation—will boost the risks of drought far beyond that caused by historic natural variability. In the last half of the 21<sup>st</sup> century, Smerdon says to expect a surge of dryness he and his co-authors call “unprecedented.” In the worst-case scenario climate pathway—<a href="http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn26243-world-on-track-for-worstcase-warming-scenario.html">the one the world is currently on</a>—the new research suggests a greater than 80 percent risk of megadrought after 2050.</p>
<p>“The story is pretty straightforward: The cause is increasing levels of CO<sub>2</sub> in the atmosphere,” said Smerdon.</p>
<p>To come to this conclusion, Smerdon and his colleagues used a range of soil moisture indicators and 17 different climate models to calibrate future global warming–influenced droughts based on the past. “The surprising thing to us was really how consistent the response was over these regions, nearly regardless of what model we used or what soil moisture metric we looked at,” said lead author Benjamin Cook in a press release. Cook’s father, Edward, helped create the North American Drought Atlas, a collection of tree rings that forms the basis for the historical analysis in the new study.</p>
<p>“The future looks as bad or worse as even the most severely dry intervals—the paleoclimate intervals—encompassing these megadrought periods that we’ve seen,” said Smerdon. Smerdon notes that although some of the models they examined show a slight increase in precipitation by the end of the century, that signal is “overwhelmed” by the increase in evaporation due to warmer temperatures.</p>
<p>The new study is generally in line with a broad consensus of research from <a href="http://www.earthinstitute.columbia.edu/news/2004/story10-05-04b.html">the last 10 years</a>, though it comes with added certainty given the robust methods the authors used. “I’d like to say that this is a surprise, but the evidence has been growing for years now,” said Peter Gleick, a hydroclimatologist at the Pacific Institute in Oakland, California, who was not involved in the research.</p>
<p>“This study highlights the fact that not only can you not ignore temperature, but temperature is a huge driver of drought,” Gleick told <strong><em>Slate</em></strong>. “That effect is enough to push us into a regime that’s worse than the worst droughts in recorded history. It’s scary.”</p>
<p>The work is the clearest evidence yet that worsening drought in the West and Midwest will inflict fundamental changes on the American landscape, with implications for tens of millions of people from San Francisco to Las Vegas and from Dallas to Des Moines. Though the ongoing California drought continues to dominate headlines—2014 was the state’s warmest year on record by a wide margin—Smerdon and his colleagues show that we should be equally concerned about fundamental risks to agricultural sustainability in the heartland, too.</p>
<p>“We cannot hope that losses in the Southwest will be made up in the Midwest, according to this study,” said Gleick. “There are degrees of screwed, and this paper suggests we’re falling off the cliff.”</p>
<p>Gleick emphasizes that the new research is particularly troubling because demographic trends point toward increased population in these same areas over the same timescale.</p>
<p>The <a href="http://www.slate.com/articles/technology/future_tense/2014/10/california_central_valley_agriculture_drought_and_climate_change_photos.html">current drought in California</a> appears to fit the model of the types of “hot droughts” that the new paper predicts for the rest of the century. However, Smerdon rightfully acknowledges that the scientific jury’s still out on direct linkages between the current drought in the West and climate change.</p>
<p>So far this winter, California’s snowpack is at near-record lows despite statewide precipitation that’s close to average. In 2015, there have been record-setting rains, <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/future_tense/2015/01/29/california_s_drought_is_now_even_more_horrible.html">record-setting dry spells</a>, and record-warm temperatures in northern California. Most of the storms so far this winter have been simply too warm to produce much snow in the mountains, a trend that’s expected to continue to worsen in the future.</p>
<p>“All the things we were hoping wouldn't happen 5-10 years ago are happening and I don't think we have sounded the alarm fast enough,” said Stephanie Castle, a researcher at the University of California–Irvine whose <a href="http://www.slate.com/articles/technology/future_tense/2014/07/lake_mead_before_and_after_colorado_river_basin_losing_water_at_shocking.html">recent work</a> focuses on Western groundwater depletion, in an email to <strong><em>Slate</em></strong>.</p>
<p>Though Smerdon is quick to note he’s not qualified to advise governments on public policy, he said the answer to America’s growing megadrought problem is simple: “Quit dumping CO<sub>2</sub> into the atmosphere.”</p>
<p>“It’s not an inevitable outcome that these are the paths we’ll take,” said Smerdon.</p>
<p><em>This article is part of Future Tense, a collaboration among&nbsp;</em><a href="http://www.asu.edu/?feature=research"><em>Arizona State University</em></a><em>, </em><a href="http://www.newamerica.org/"><em>New America</em></a><em>, and&nbsp;</em><strong><em>Slate</em></strong><em>.&nbsp;Future Tense explores the ways emerging technologies affect society, policy, and culture. To read more, visit the&nbsp;</em><a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/future_tense.html"><em>Future Tense blog</em></a><em>&nbsp;and the&nbsp;</em><a href="http://www.slate.com/articles/technology/future_tense.html"><em>Future Tense home page</em></a><em>. You can also&nbsp;follow us on Twitter.</em></p>Thu, 12 Feb 2015 21:00:09 GMThttp://www.slate.com/articles/technology/future_tense/2015/02/study_climate_change_may_bring_about_megadroughts_this_century.htmlEric Holthaus2015-02-12T21:00:09ZIf you think that California is dry now, wait till the 2050s.TechnologyIf You Think the California Drought Is Bad, Wait Till the 2050s100150212014droughtthirsty westCaliforniaclimate changeEric HolthausFuture Tensehttp://www.slate.com/articles/technology/future_tense/2015/02/study_climate_change_may_bring_about_megadroughts_this_century.htmlfalsefalsefalseIf you think the California drought is bad, wait till the 2050s.If You Think the California Drought Is Bad, Wait Till the 2050sPhoto by George Rose/Getty ImagesCalifornia's largest water reservoir, Lake Shasta, at the historically low level of 26% capacity, Sept. 27, 2014, in Redding, California.Sorry, Boston: Two More Major Storms On the Wayhttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2015/02/10/boston_snow_storms_they_keep_coming.html
<p>New England is locked in to a weather pattern for the ages. Don’t expect it to change anytime soon.</p>
<p>Shovelers mourned the latest onslaught of wintry misery on Monday, as nearly 2 feet of additional snow fell in Boston since Saturday. The city has recorded its snowiest 30-day stretch in history in just 17 days, <a href="https://twitter.com/HarveyWCVB/status/564942563098902528">breaking the record</a> by more than a foot. A full <a href="https://twitter.com/ScottIsaacs/status/564903089871003649">Gronk of snow</a> (6 feet, 6 inches) is now in sight for Boston, and will likely be exceeded by the end of the week.</p>
<p>With nowhere left for plows to park the stuff—the city’s “<a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2015/02/06/boston_snow_storm_another_foot_is_on_the_way_also_freezing_cold.html">snow farms</a>” are nearly full—Mayor Martin Walsh <a href="http://www.bostonglobe.com/metro/2015/02/09/mayor-walsh-city-may-begin-dumping-snow-boston-harbor/KIW2nhQlS0yPfMuViLVI4K/story.html">received permission</a> from the state’s environmental agency to dump excess snow into Boston Harbor. Roof collapses <a href="http://www.wcvb.com/weather/multiple-roof-collapses-reported-across-region/31170568">were reported</a> throughout the Boston area on Monday under the weight of a <a href="http://mashable.com/2015/02/09/new-england-snow-storm/">record-setting snowpack</a>. Nearly 50 commuters abandoned a Massachusetts Bay Transportation Authority train <a href="http://www.necn.com/news/new-england/Passengers-Stranded-on-Red-Line-Train-291254581.html">after it became stuck due to snow and ice</a> buildup on the third rail on Monday. As of Tuesday, Boston’s public schools have closed eight times already this winter, the most in 20 years. Without canceling scheduled vacation days—including spring break—that means the school year <a href="http://www.boston.com/news/local/massachusetts/2015/02/09/will-boston-public-schools-cancel-april-vacation-due-snow/43aLAcCJ6CrxLYJh0eD7VI/story.html">could now stretch into July</a>. Jury selection for the Boston Marathon bombing trial was also <a href="http://www.whdh.com/story/28065885/snow-delays-jury-selection-in-marathon-bombing-suspect-trial">postponed</a> due to the snow. Via Boston’s <a href="http://snowstats.boston.gov/">Snow Stats website</a>, the city’s snowplows have now collectively traveled the distance from the Earth to the moon so far this winter.</p>
<p>Unfortunately, this isn’t the worst of it. Weather models are increasingly insistent on two more major storms this week, one on Thursday to Friday and another potentially bigger one on Sunday.</p>
<p>The National Weather Service is saying “all signs point to yes that a likely storm system will impact southern New England” on Thursday. Weather models show the storm will likely remain just a hair too far out to sea to produce widespread impacts beyond Cape Cod. Still, Boston could easily receive an additional 6 to 12 inches of snow.</p>
<p>The European model is hinting at even bigger potential for Sunday’s storm, though there’s low agreement so far among the other major weather models. The National Weather Service says the storm could be of “significant strength and longevity leaving a considerable mark on our region,” especially if it tracks a little closer to shore than is currently indicated, but it’s not ready to commit yet. In a Tuesday morning <a href="https://twitter.com/EricHolthaus/status/565179285946638336">update</a>, the National Weather service urged Massachusetts residents to clear their roofs of snow in advance of the impending snowstorms.</p>
<p>Last week’s snow burst broke the city’s seven-day snowfall record of 31.2 inches in January 1996, with 40.5 inches between Jan. 27 and Feb. 2. Starting with the Feb. 2 snowfall, the city came within hours of breaking that mark again, racking up 40.1 inches of snow over the last eight days (Feb. 2 to 9). Boston’s never had three 15-inch snowstorms in a single winter before. This year, they’ve done that in less than three weeks. Two of those storms (Jan. 26 to 27 and Feb. 7 to 9) now rank <a href="https://twitter.com/TerryWBZ/status/564940513141202944">among the 10 largest snowstorms</a> in the city’s history. The stunning surge of the last three weeks has quickly put Boston <a href="https://twitter.com/EricHolthaus/status/565143250374111233">on a pace</a> for its snowiest winter ever.</p>
<p>With the snow falling <a href="https://twitter.com/WxNick/status/564890421974032384">roughly three times faster</a> than at any other point in Boston history, it’s fair to wonder if there’s a connection to climate change. As <a href="http://www.vice.com/read/yes-the-northeast-blizzard-is-just-another-sign-of-global-warming">in New York City</a>, recent years have seen a surge in big snowstorms. Five of the 10 biggest snows on record in Boston have come since just 2003, in a record that dates back to 1872.</p>
<p>Monday’s storm in particular came via a coastal front that was strengthened due to the clash between cold Arctic air and the <a href="https://twitter.com/EricHolthaus/status/565097441498636288">warmer-than-normal Gulf Stream waters offshore</a>. That front remained stationary for more than a day, forcing the relatively moist air onshore where it was converted into snow via “<a href="http://www.weatherworksinc.com/node/587">ocean enhancement</a>.” This is a common feature in Massachusetts winters, but Monday was an extreme example.</p>
<p>Since warmer air holds more moisture, there’s a good chance Monday’s storm was made worse by human-caused climate change. That would fit the trend with the <a href="http://nca2014.globalchange.gov/report/our-changing-climate/heavy-downpours-increasing">general rise in extreme precipitation throughout the Northeast</a> in recent decades. The recent National Climate Assessment reports a 71 percent increase in the amount of precipitation falling in the heaviest precipitation events since 1958.</p>
<p>Meanwhile, <a href="https://twitter.com/57MCM/status/565133227460141056">magnolias are budding</a> on the National Mall in Washington, D.C. after a weekend of record-high temperatures that affected most of the rest of the country. In Denver, temperatures have been flirting with 70 degrees for most of the last two weeks, displaying weather more typical of May. On average, there’s more snow on the ground in Boston right now than <a href="https://twitter.com/EricHolthaus/status/565148643225640960">in California’s Sierra Range</a>, which sits at less than one-third of normal snowpack amid a fourth year of drought.</p>
<p>Looking at the latest weather models, that same general pattern—warm in the West, cold in the East—appears to continue for at least the next two weeks. A bit of good news: For the first time in weeks, there’s no firm signal of a significant snowstorm beyond this coming weekend, but that doesn’t mean winter can’t get worse.</p>
<p>On the heels of the next two snowstorms, the overnight run of the GFS model predicted a prolonged stretch of truly frigid weather in the Northeast. As one extreme example, starting Friday night, Boston may endure 100 consecutive hours below 20 degrees Fahrenheit. Whatever snow that falls this week is going to stick around for awhile.</p>Tue, 10 Feb 2015 17:06:00 GMThttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2015/02/10/boston_snow_storms_they_keep_coming.htmlEric Holthaus2015-02-10T17:06:00ZbriefingBoston Keeps Shattering Snow Records. Now, Two More Major Storms Are On the Way. &nbsp;227150210003Eric HolthausThe SlatestThe Slatesthttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2015/02/10/boston_snow_storms_they_keep_coming.htmlfalsefalsefalseBoston Keeps Shattering Snow Records. Now, Two More Major Storms Are On the Way. &nbsp;Boston Keeps Shattering Snow Records. Now, Two More Major Storms Are On the Way. &nbsp;Photo by Lane Turner/The Boston Globe via Getty ImagesAle Mineo-Levitsky, 10, grins after falling face first into a snowdrift near Beals Street in Brookline, Feb.9, 2015.OMG Boston: Another Foot of Snow Is on the Wayhttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2015/02/06/boston_snow_storm_another_foot_is_on_the_way_also_freezing_cold.html
<p>With wind chills as low as 12 below zero Fahrenheit in Boston, Friday was <a href="https://twitter.com/NWSBoston/status/563662417440542720">one of the coldest mornings</a> in New England history. At this rate, Bostonians can only cherish their few unfrozen tears, because winter’s fury isn’t leaving anytime soon.</p>
<p>Friday’s bone-chilling cold will kick off another brutal stretch of winter weather for New England, which just endured its <a href="https://twitter.com/NWSBoston/status/562664416173248512">snowiest week in history</a>—with four feet in 10 days in Boston. That’s 60 percent of <a href="https://www.google.com/search?q=rob+gronkowski+height&amp;oq=rob+&amp;aqs=chrome.0.69i59j69i65l2j69i57j0l2.1532j0j4&amp;sourceid=chrome&amp;es_sm=91&amp;ie=UTF-8">a Gronkowski of snow</a>. That’s a year’s worth of snow just since late January. As you can imagine, this has led to some surreal scenes across the region:</p>
<p>The city has rarely been tested like this in the winter, and its $18 million snow removal budget is <a href="http://www.necn.com/news/new-england/Mayor-Urges-Residents-to-Snitch-on-Snow-Shoveling-Scofflaws-290653181.html">soon to run out</a>. The <a href="http://www.bostonglobe.com/metro/2015/02/02/latest-days-were-boston-snowiest-record/fqygrkB1cPn1CWWBXTuZdM/story.html">five snowiest 7-day stretches</a> on record in Boston have all occurred since 1996, another data point of evidence that <a href="http://www.vice.com/read/yes-the-northeast-blizzard-is-just-another-sign-of-global-warming">Northeast snowstorms are getting more intense</a>, in part due to climate change.</p>
<p>So far this season, Boston snowplows have <a href="http://snowstats.boston.gov/">collectively travelled</a> two-thirds of the distance from the Earth to the Moon in a quest to rid the city of the great white menace. Much of that snow has been loaded into dump trucks and piled in a giant “snow farm”—<a href="https://www.google.com/maps/place/6+Tide+St,+Boston,+MA+02210/@42.345168,-71.031771,3a,52.5y,351.58h,90.57t/data=!3m4!1e1!3m2!1s6xTKaqYZJ0bvqIGcO1Y4oQ!2e0!4m2!3m1!1s0x89e37a9e65520393:0x4915b8f41e72698!6m1!1e1">a vacant lot</a> across the harbor from Logan Airport in the city’s Seaport District. <a href="http://www.wbur.org/2015/02/05/snow-farm-seaport-district">There</a>, bulldozers have worked tirelessly all week compacting the snow to try to make room for more.</p>
<p>And, more is on the way.</p>
<p>Weather models are locking in on a potentially long-duration snowfall event starting Saturday and lasting through Tuesday, which the National Weather Service says could bring “a foot or more” of fresh snow. A foot might not sound like that much, but remember: It’s a foot <em>on top of</em> what’s already on the ground.</p>
<p>A plume of subtropical moisture from a potent system currently impacting the Pacific Northwest will travel across the continent, and that moisture will turn into snow. The incoming storm system will be unusual for its longevity in New England. As it makes its way from the West Coast, the storm’s moisture will straddle a semi-stationary front stretching back towards Chicago, leading to a nearly continuous moderate snowfall for three full days for most of New England.</p>
<p>Two more potential snowstorms are showing up on the longer-range horizon (one on Feb. 12<sup>th</sup> and one on the 15<sup>th</sup>), but these are less certain than this weekend’s long slog.</p>
<p>Regardless of what happens snow-wise mid-month, it’s going to be freezing then, &nbsp;with the cold likely <a href="https://twitter.com/EricHolthaus/status/563465106026033152">sticking around for a week or so</a>. The NWS <a href="https://twitter.com/EricHolthaus/status/563472568921763840">warns</a> of a “high risk” of “much below normal temperatures” during mid-February for much of the Northeast, with another round of sub-zero wind chills likely.</p>Fri, 06 Feb 2015 20:02:51 GMThttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2015/02/06/boston_snow_storm_another_foot_is_on_the_way_also_freezing_cold.htmlEric Holthaus2015-02-06T20:02:51ZbriefingOMG Boston: Another Foot of Snow Is on the Way227150206008Eric HolthausThe SlatestThe Slatesthttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2015/02/06/boston_snow_storm_another_foot_is_on_the_way_also_freezing_cold.htmlfalsefalsefalseOMG Boston: Another Foot of Snow Is on the WayOMG Boston: Another Foot of Snow Is on the Way1519028538001AQ~~,AAAAAASoY90~,_gW1ZHvKG_1U0LqDiRqg6y9siD7-Z_bO40362123330011519028538001AQ~~,AAAAAASoY90~,_gW1ZHvKG_1U0LqDiRqg6y9siD7-Z_bO40362123330011519028538001AQ~~,AAAAAASoY90~,_gW1ZHvKG_1U0LqDiRqg6y9siD7-Z_bO40362123330011519028538001AQ~~,AAAAAASoY90~,_gW1ZHvKG_1U0LqDiRqg6y9siD7-Z_bO40362123330011519028538001AQ~~,AAAAAASoY90~,_gW1ZHvKG_1U0LqDiRqg6y9siD7-Z_bO40362123330011519028538001AQ~~,AAAAAASoY90~,_gW1ZHvKG_1U0LqDiRqg6y9siD7-Z_bO40362123330011519028538001AQ~~,AAAAAASoY90~,_gW1ZHvKG_1U0LqDiRqg6y9siD7-Z_bO4036212333001Photo by Dominick Reuter/ReutersTwo men walk down Pinckney Street on Beacon Hill during a winter storm in Boston, Massachusetts, Feb. 5, 2014.Even the Architects of the Next U.N. Climate Change Agreement Are Pessimistichttp://www.slate.com/blogs/future_tense/2015/02/04/u_n_paris_climate_talks_even_the_architects_of_the_agreement_are_pessimistic.html
<p>Heartbreaking news Wednesday on that whole global warming thing. Two of the leading architects of a major U.N. agreement on climate, scheduled to be agreed upon this December, are trying to soften expectations. This is particularly disappointing because Paris had previously been billed as the most important negotiations since the <a href="http://www.slate.com/articles/health_and_science/green_room/2009/12/the_partys_over.html">failure in Copenhagen</a> in 2009.</p>
<p>Miguel Arias Canete, the climate chief of the European Union, was in Washington this week for talks on climate change with the lead of the U.S. delegation, Todd Stern. He was quoted <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/feb/04/paris-climate-summit-missing-global-warming-target-would-not-be-failure?CMP=share_btn_tw">in the<em> Guardian</em></a> as saying, “If we have an ongoing process you can not say it is a failure if the mitigation commitments do not reach 2&deg;C.”</p>
<p>Actually, you can. Because keeping climate change to less than 2-degrees Celsius—the arbitrary point at which scientists and world governments <a href="http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg3/en/ch1s1-2-2.html">have agreed</a> is the start of “dangerous interference with the climate system”—is <a href="http://unfccc.int/essential_background/convention/items/6036.php">the entire goal</a> of the U.N. climate negotiations. That’s it. That’s what the world is fighting for. All of the eggs have been put in that basket.</p>
<p>But wait, there’s more (also from the<em> Guardian</em>):</p>
<blockquote>
In Brussels, meanwhile, the UN top climate official, Christiana Figueres, was similarly downplaying expectations, telling reporters the pledges made in the run-up to the Paris meeting later this year will “not get us onto the 2&deg;C pathway”.
</blockquote>
<p>Now, I don’t know about you, but that doesn’t seem very hopeful. I mean, honestly, what is the point of even conducting these talks if your boss says—10 months in advance—that you will fail?</p>
<p>Now, this year’s negotiations probably won’t be a total failure. The <a href="http://www.rtcc.org/2015/02/03/un-climate-change-talks-and-the-paris-deal-a-guide/">Paris climate talks</a> (seriously, click that link, it’s a great explainer) are expected to produce the world’s first global agreement on climate change, with every member country expected to submit domestic targets for reducing greenhouse gases. That’s something to celebrate. Representatives from nearly 200 countries are assembling in Geneva next week to write the draft agreement.</p>
<p>But with Wednesday’s statements, it’s now looking more and more likely that, when taken together, those targets won’t be sufficient to keep global warming to manageable levels.</p>
<p>Instead, the 2015 agreement is looking more and more like a way to peer pressure global laggards (like Canada, <a href="http://www.slate.com/articles/technology/future_tense/2014/09/australia_s_environmental_movement_has_been_overthrown.html">Australia</a>, Japan, and, in the past, the United States) from doing the bare minimum on climate. That’s something we ought to be excited about, but incremental progress like this is in no way a substitute for meaningful government action on climate.</p>
<p>It’s too bad we’ve wasted the last two-and-a-half decades since climate change first emerged on the world’s diplomatic radar—the world’s carbon dioxide emissions have <a href="http://www.globalcarbonproject.org/carbonbudget/14/hl-full.htm">increased by 61 percent since 1990</a>​, matching or exceeding projections for the worst-case emissions*—but the world can’t sulk in failure forever. Instead, we should use this opportunity to admit that, when it comes to the climate, the U.N. process is <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/future_tense/2014/12/14/lima_peru_climate_change_negotiations_one_word_undermines_the_entire_thing.html">irreparably broken</a>. If we at last write off the U.N. process, it may help the world finally make progress on climate by instead turning to local, tangible actions that could energize people and bring about real change.</p>
<p>This is further evidence that the action on climate change will shift to what are currently perceived to be radical solutions. Absent meaningful action by governments, it’s up to individuals to demand change: nonviolent direct action and <a href="http://www.slate.com/articles/health_and_science/science/2014/09/people_s_climate_march_new_york_protest_is_largest_ever_led_by_indigenous.html">mass protest</a>, a <a href="http://www.slate.com/articles/technology/future_tense/2014/09/this_changes_everything_naomi_klein_on_climate_change_and_capitalism.html">rethinking of capitalism</a>—in short, a <a href="http://qz.com/154196/the-only-way-to-stop-climate-change-now-may-be-revolution/">revolution in culture and society</a>—are suitable to the job of limiting climate change to levels that don’t threaten entire ecosystems and thus human prosperity. Just because this sort of change is unlikely doesn’t mean it isn’t necessary.</p>
<p><em><strong>*Correction, Feb. 5, 2015: </strong>A previous version of this post incorrectly said the world's greenhouse gas emissions have increased by 34 percent since 1990. Actually, it's the radiative forcing—the cumulative warming effect of greenhouse gas emissions on the climate—that has increased by 34 percent since 1990. Global carbon dioxide emissions have increased 61 percent since 1990.</em></p>Wed, 04 Feb 2015 23:51:17 GMThttp://www.slate.com/blogs/future_tense/2015/02/04/u_n_paris_climate_talks_even_the_architects_of_the_agreement_are_pessimistic.htmlEric Holthaus2015-02-04T23:51:17ZTechnologyEven the Architects of the Next U.N. Climate Change Agreement Are Pessimistic203150204006climate changeunited nationsEric HolthausFuture TenseFuture Tensehttp://www.slate.com/blogs/future_tense/2015/02/04/u_n_paris_climate_talks_even_the_architects_of_the_agreement_are_pessimistic.htmlfalsefalsefalseEven the Architects of the Next U.N. Climate Change Agreement Are PessimisticEven the Architects of the Next U.N. Climate Change Agreement Are PessimisticPhoto by Jonathan Nackstrand/AFP/Getty ImagesOn Sept. 27, 2013 in Stockholm, protesters outside the U.N. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change demand immediate political action.New Snowstorm Kicks Off a February Time-Loop Of Wintry Miseryhttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2015/02/01/february_snow_storm_the_first_of_many_hits_chicago_moves_on_to_the_east.html
<p>With yet another snowstorm inbound for Groundhog Day (meteorology’s <a href="http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/recycled/2009/01/the_groundhog_fraud.html">unofficial national holiday</a>), it looks like the atmosphere will be stuck in a Bill Murray–esque time-loop during at least the first half of February: The snowstorms will keep coming over and over and over again for the East.</p>
<p>The big storm was already in full swing in Chicago on Sunday, with blizzard warnings posted and the National Weather Service predicting a <a href="https://twitter.com/NWSChicago/status/561990577432977408">potential top-10 snowfall</a>. A Vine by Wisconsin meteorologist Chris Gloninger showed full-out blizzard conditions in Kenosha.</p>
<p>As the storm nears the East Coast, another major impact is likely in Boston, just days after <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2015/01/26/blizzard_2015_latest_updates_on_the_east_coast_snow_storm.html">one of the biggest snowfalls in that city’s history</a>. Boston schools <a href="https://twitter.com/BuzzFeedStorm/status/561992746542829568">are closed on Monday</a>, with the city likely to receive another foot of wind-driven snow. Though not as potent as last week’s storm, Monday’s wintry blast will be another significant wallop for New England, where snow totals in some areas will surpass those typically measured over the course of an entire year.</p>
<p>In contrast, Monday’s snowstorm is looking like another huge disappointment in New York City. With low pressure passing nearly directly over the city, it’s a crapshoot as to what sorts of effects will be felt from the second major winter storm in a week.</p>
<p>This time around, several hours of freezing rain and wind-driven sleet (otherwise known as the worst) seem more likely than another blanket of fluffy snow.</p>
<p>Here are three equally likely scenarios for Monday in New York City. Pick your poison:</p>
<ol>
<li>Low pressure passes north of NYC: In this scenario, the city will miss out almost entirely from this storm, likely getting only an inch or two of slush during the morning hours, and then a full day of 40-degree plain rain, pretty much the most miserable winter weather imaginable. All that slush will freeze solid overnight Monday as a major cold front kicks in.</li>
<li>Low pressure passes over NYC: In this scenario, the city will receive a quick three to four inches of snow in the early morning hours before a changeover to freezing rain or sleet. The ice could hold fast for most of the day, leading to <a href="https://twitter.com/EricHolthaus/status/561953783094071296">a glaze of up to a quarter inch</a>, enough to bring down big tree branches in Central Park and cause power outages for parts of the city that have overhead power lines.</li>
<li>Low pressure passes south of NYC: In this scenario, the city racks up another six to 12 inches of snowfall throughout the day, about as much as fell during last week’s storm. But even in this situation, expect at least a brief changeover to ice, which will slushify the snow and make for a really yucky afternoon sidewalk experience.</li>
</ol>
<p>Following Monday’s snow and ice fest, at least three harsh blasts of Arctic air will infiltrate the Northeast this week, on Tuesday, Friday, and Sunday. According to Sunday afternoon’s Global Forecast System (GFS), subsequent snowstorms are possible on the East Coast on February 5, 8, 9-10, 14, 16, and 18. Sunday Feb. 8 looks to feature the most impressive cold front of the bunch, with actual temperatures falling to well below zero for much of New England, and wind chills even colder than that.</p>
<p>Six more weeks of winter is a sure bet.</p>Mon, 02 Feb 2015 02:08:00 GMThttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2015/02/01/february_snow_storm_the_first_of_many_hits_chicago_moves_on_to_the_east.htmlEric Holthaus2015-02-02T02:08:00ZbriefingNew Snowstorm Kicks Off a February Time-Loop Of Wintry Misery227150201006Eric HolthausThe SlatestThe Slatesthttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2015/02/01/february_snow_storm_the_first_of_many_hits_chicago_moves_on_to_the_east.htmlfalsefalsefalseNew snow storm kicks off a February time-loop of wintry misery, says @ericholthaus.New Snowstorm Kicks Off a February Time-Loop Of Wintry MiseryPhoto by Kayana Szymczak/Getty ImagesBoston dug out of the snow last week. Now they're about to get hit with more. &nbsp;Horrible California Drought Is Now Even More Horriblehttp://www.slate.com/blogs/future_tense/2015/01/29/california_s_drought_is_now_even_more_horrible.html
<p>California’s epic drought is about to set another seemingly unbreakable record.</p>
<p>With just two days remaining in the month, no rain in the forecast, and a monster ridge of high pressure camped out overhead, San Francisco is now all but assured of its driest January in city history—exactly zero (that’s right, 0.00) inches have fallen so far.</p>
<p>If the dearth of raindrops holds out, it will beat the record set last year, when just 0.01 inches fell at the airport. The long-term average rainfall in San Francisco in January is about 4.5 inches, with records dating continuously back to 1850. In the past, the city has received up to 14.5 inches in January (in 1916).</p>
<p>And it’s not just San Francisco. In most of northern and central California—the hardest hit regions of the state’s drought—rainfall in 2015 has been <a href="https://twitter.com/EricHolthaus/status/560887845737746432">less than 2 percent of normal</a>.</p>
<p>Any hopes the state had of finally turning the corner on its oppressive, <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/future_tense/2014/12/09/noaa_study_asking_what_caused_california_s_drought_misses_the_point.html">possibly climate change–fueled</a> megadrought have withered like the Sacramento River. Progress made in refilling the state’s largest reservoirs thanks to a series of major December storms <a href="http://cdec.water.ca.gov/cdecapp/resapp/resDetailOrig.action?resid=SHA">has stalled</a>, and key rainfall indices are back to being <a href="http://cdec.water.ca.gov/cdecapp/precipapp/get8SIPrecipIndex.action">below normal</a>. Snowpack in the Sierras, which supplies <a href="http://www.sierranevada.ca.gov/our-region/sierra-delta--connection">more than 60 percent</a> of the state’s water resources, is down to <a href="http://cdec.water.ca.gov/cdecapp/snowapp/sweq.action">a dismal 25 percent of normal</a>. New data <a href="http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/Home/StateDroughtMonitor.aspx?CA">released</a> by the National Drought Mitigation Center on Thursday showed 40 percent of the state is now classified as “exceptional drought,” the most severe category.</p>
<p>California was <a href="http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cag/time-series/us/tavg/ytd/4/0/12/1895-2014?base_prd=true&amp;begbaseyear=1901&amp;endbaseyear=2000">off-the-charts hot in 2014</a>, shattering the previous statewide heat record by nearly 2 degrees Fahrenheit. That may not sound like a lot, but until last year, the entire historical range for all years dating back to 1895 was only a bit over 4 degrees Fahrenheit. The distance separating the now second- and third-warmest years (1934 and 1996) is just one-tenth of 1 degree. The temperature so far in 2015 has been much above normal, as well.</p>
<p>As the drought plods along, the impact on sensitive industries like agriculture has continued to worsen. This winter, the California salmon industry was decimated by warmer-than-normal water in the state’s lakes and streams, <a href="http://www.capradio.org/41099#.VMjvYq6v32o.twitter">reports Capital Public Radio in Sacramento</a>. Meanwhile, the <a href="http://www.sacbee.com/news/politics-government/article8203548.html"><em>Sacramento Bee</em> reports</a> that the state is considering temporary dams on the vulnerable Sacramento–San Joaquin Delta in a desperate attempt to keep saltwater from encroaching inland into sensitive wetlands and the state’s drinking water supply. The delta sends water to about 25 million urban Californians and helps irrigate a vast section of the state’s agricultural production.</p>
<p>For now, California is the country’s leading dairy-producing state. That might change if the drought continues at this pace. <a href="http://iowapublicradio.org/post/midwest-recruiters-luring-california-dairies">Iowa Public Radio reports</a> that there’s been an increasing exodus of dairy farmers from California to the Midwest, where supplies of grass and grain are more stable. With the specter of climate change, these kinds of stories hint at what could be a <a href="http://www.slate.com/articles/technology/future_tense/2014/10/california_central_valley_agriculture_drought_and_climate_change_photos.html">broader decline</a> in the country’s leading agricultural state in coming years.</p>
<p>As for the current drought, there’s increasing evidence that last month’s boost in rains could have been a fluke. In the weeks ahead, the whole of America is about to get a blast from the ghost of weather past. It’s as if Marty McFly transported the entire country back to this time last year. Same weather pattern, same result: bitter cold in the East, a baking-hot and dry West.</p>
<p>The primary culprit, as it was last year, is <a href="http://www.weatherwest.com/archives/tag/ridiculously-resilient-ridge">a stubborn ridge of high pressure</a> camped out over the Pacific coast, shunting moisture northward away from California, and opening the atmospheric gates for wave after wave of frigid Arctic air to spill southward toward the East Coast.</p>
<p>That persistent ridge of high pressure in the West means the California drought will continue to escalate:</p>
<p>Meanwhile, the latest runs of the GFS model—<a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2015/01/27/how_everyone_but_the_weather_channel_botched_the_nyc_blizzard_forecast.html">the one that nailed Tuesday’s nonblizzard in New York City</a>—shows no fewer than six snowstorm chances for the East Coast before Valentine’s Day. Snow-starved Washington, D.C. could see a major storm on Monday, the day after the Super Bowl. The <a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2015/01/29/super-bowl-sunday-winter-storm-potential-is-legitimate-but-not-a-lock/">most recent update</a> from the <em>Washington Post’</em>s Capital Weather Gang gives hope to snow-lovers: “Most of our snowstorms this winter so far have just been field goals, this one could be a touchdown.” Anywhere from 2 to 10 inches could fall on the nation’s capital as a suddenly-very-active winter weather pattern continues in full swing for the East.</p>Thu, 29 Jan 2015 21:17:01 GMThttp://www.slate.com/blogs/future_tense/2015/01/29/california_s_drought_is_now_even_more_horrible.htmlEric Holthaus2015-01-29T21:17:01ZTechnologyHorrible California Drought Is Now Even More Horrible203150129004climate changedroughtthirsty westEric HolthausFuture TenseFuture Tensehttp://www.slate.com/blogs/future_tense/2015/01/29/california_s_drought_is_now_even_more_horrible.htmlfalsefalsefalseHorrible California Drought Is Now Even More HorribleHorrible California Drought Is Now Even More HorriblePhoto by Justin Sullivan/Getty ImagesA security guard walks the perimeter of the Almaden Reservoir on Jan. 28, 2014, in San Jose, California. One year later, the California drought has only gotten worse.How Everyone but the Weather Channel Botched the NYC Blizzard Forecasthttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2015/01/27/how_everyone_but_the_weather_channel_botched_the_nyc_blizzard_forecast.html
<p>In the run-up to this week’s blizzard, some serious differences emerged when it came to the New York City snowfall forecast.</p>
<p>On the one hand, there was the National Weather Service, armed with thousands of meteorologists, a <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/future_tense/2015/01/05/national_weather_service_announces_a_ten_fold_boost_in_supercomputer_power.html">newly upgraded forecasting supercomputer</a>, a nationwide network of weather radars and balloons, and satellite technology.* It even sent the Hurricane Hunters to fly through the storm to take additional data.</p>
<p>Early on, the NWS called for “historic” snowfall totals of 20 to 30 inches in New York City. It cautioned that if an intense snowfall band ended up camping out over the city (as several model forecasts suggested would happen), 3 feet wasn’t out of the question.</p>
<p>That obviously didn’t happen. One NWS forecaster in Philadelphia went so far as to <a href="http://newyork.cbslocal.com/2015/01/27/national-weather-service-meteorologist-apologizes-for-storm-forecast/">issue a public apology via Twitter</a> for the botched forecast. The director of the National Weather Service also scheduled a Tuesday afternoon press conference to discuss the forecast, a rare step likely aimed at restoring public trust. (The NWS forecast for Boston, by the way, is right on track. That city’s still on pace to record its biggest snowstorm in history.)</p>
<p>So what went wrong in New York City? In a <a href="https://www.facebook.com/NWSNewYorkNY/photos/a.188187191210604.50415.177148895647767/993274700701845/?type=1&amp;theater">series</a> of <a href="https://www.facebook.com/NWSNewYorkNY/posts/993342050695110">Facebook</a> posts <a href="https://www.facebook.com/NWSNewYorkNY/photos/a.188187191210604.50415.177148895647767/993397610689554/?type=1&amp;theater">explaining</a> its forecast, the NWS said, “These bands are nearly impossible to predict until they develop.” True, but someone did manage to forecast it: the Weather Channel.</p>
<p>Throughout most the day on Monday, the Weather Channel was forecasting 12 to 18 inches for New York City, while the National Weather Service insisted a record-breaker was possible. By nightfall the Weather Channel had scaled back its forecast even further, calling for 8 to 12 inches. And that’s <a href="http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KOKX/1501271505.nous41.html">exactly what fell</a>. As late as 5 p.m. Monday, the National Weather Service was still talking about top-end scenarios of up to 3 feet in the Bronx.</p>
<p>These days, meteorologists rely heavily on computer weather models for everything from temperature forecasts to the tracks of hurricanes to snowstorms. Usually, they’re pretty good. But the problem is, they frequently disagree—and when that happens, you need to quickly assess what information to use and what to toss. Which is where the humans come in.</p>
<p>As best I can piece together, the Weather Channel’s method for forecasting storms like this is not to throw out any model information, no matter how off-base it may seem at the time. And for this storm, the potential spread of model forecast placement of the most intense snow band was <a href="https://twitter.com/ryanhanrahan/status/560108062561026048">exceptionally large</a> for the New York City area. This is a perfect situation where probabilistic forecasts are useful. Instead of banking on one or two specific models like the NWS did (and which <a href="https://twitter.com/angelafritz/status/560077033607532544">turned out to be the wrong ones</a>), the Weather Channel chose to blend the models and weight them a little more equally.</p>
<p>In contrast, the National Weather Service took the gutsy step of disregarding the GFS model—its own, newly improved model, by the way—and opted almost entirely for a blend of the ECMWF and NAM, two of the historically best-performing models for this sort of storm and lead time. Though that’s a more traditional style of forecasting, it’s prone to busts. Sure enough, the storm’s center ended up tracking about <a href="https://twitter.com/anthonywx/status/560108583182823426">120 miles farther east</a> and about three hours faster than the ECMWF forecasted, closer to where the GFS predicted it would be, a pretty big difference.</p>
<p>For my forecast updates here on <strong><em>Slate</em></strong>, I sided almost exclusively with <a href="http://www.weather.gov/okx/winter">the numbers from the National Weather Service</a> because 1) they seemed reasonable, looking at much of the same data myself that they used to construct this forecast, and 2) they’re the official forecast source. Entire governments make plans based on their forecasts, so I figured that’s good enough for <strong><em>Slate</em></strong>. I was wrong.</p>
<p>On Tuesday, I spoke with the Weather Channel’s winter weather expert Tom Niziol by phone in an attempt to understand how he and his colleagues got it right—and, by extension, what the National Weather Service may have missed.</p>
<p>“As we saw the guidance changing throughout the day, we adjusted that forecast as necessary,” Niziol told me. “I don’t want to make it sound too simple.”</p>
<p>This forecast was truly complicated. The Weather Channel’s forecast for a 30-mile stretch including New York City ranged from more than 18 inches on Long Island to less than 8 inches in New Jersey. It really could have gone either way. In contrast, the Boston forecast, Niziol said, was a “no-brainer.”</p>
<p>In recent years, there’ve been several weather-related controversies in New York state, suggesting that a storm like this was bound to become political. The twin hurricane threats of Irene in 2011 and Sandy in 2012 produced vastly different effects in New York City, despite the National Weather Service calling for a significant coastal flood in each case. Irene turned out to be nearly as catastrophic in upstate New York as Sandy was in the city, but downstate residents likely remember Irene as a busted forecast. Then New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg took heat during the run-up to Sandy for initially downplaying its flooding threat, probably because of Irene, at least in part.</p>
<p>More recently, New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo was <a href="http://thevane.gawker.com/andrew-cuomo-slams-natl-weather-service-over-his-own-ig-1662362854">criticized </a>for blaming the National Weather Service for a sluggish response to the Buffalo mega-lake-effect storm, which brought more than 6 feet of snow to the region in just three days.</p>
<p>National Weather Service forecasters (and the governor) likely had these experiences in mind this week. The NWS may have overstressed the blizzard’s worst-case scenario, and the governor may have acted too hastily, both in an effort to cover themselves in case it actually came to pass.</p>
<p>Niziol, who used to head up the Buffalo office of the National Weather Service, knows a lot about messaging during major weather events. He told me that emergency managers frequently want the most likely forecast and the worst-case scenario as well. In the aftermath of this storm, local leaders used that philosophy to explain the unnecessary shuttering of NYC schools and public transportation.</p>
<p>There’s one emerging technology that may provide a relatively quick solution: probabilistic snowfall forecasts. Several National Weather Service offices, including Washington, D.C., New York City, and Boston, have experimental pages right now, though they frequently don’t emphasize them in public messaging.</p>
<p>In my <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/future_tense/2015/01/25/this_week_s_east_coast_blizzard_could_be_the_biggest_on_record.html">blizzard preview post</a> on Sunday, I actually said “there’s very little chance of a bust.” I came to that conclusion by using the <a href="http://www.weather.gov/okx/winter">experimental probabilistic snow forecast</a> by the NWS, which at the time showed a 67 percent chance of at least 18 inches in New York City. Although this kind of probabilistic information is exactly what Niziol was talking about, the National Weather Service (and I) got too concerned with the top-end scenarios. I should have played up the other side of that uncertainty more.</p>
<p>This story has a valuable lesson for the future of meteorology, and more importantly, real-time communication of extreme weather events in an era of escalating climate change. If we have the information (and, in the case of the newly upgraded GFS, it’s being produced at great expense), why not use it?</p>
<p><em><strong>*Correction, Jan. 27, 2015:</strong> A previous version of this post incorrectly said the National Weather Service has the ability to launch its own weather satellites. Actually, the NWS parent organization, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, works with NASA and the U.S. Air Force to launch satellites, whose data the NWS then uses.&nbsp; </em></p>Tue, 27 Jan 2015 20:18:38 GMThttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2015/01/27/how_everyone_but_the_weather_channel_botched_the_nyc_blizzard_forecast.htmlEric Holthaus2015-01-27T20:18:38ZbriefingHow Everyone but the Weather Channel Botched the NYC Blizzard Forecast227150127005weatherblizzardEric HolthausThe SlatestThe Slatesthttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2015/01/27/how_everyone_but_the_weather_channel_botched_the_nyc_blizzard_forecast.htmlfalsefalsefalseHow Everyone but the Weather Channel Botched the NYC Blizzard ForecastHow Everyone but the Weather Channel Botched the NYC Blizzard ForecastPhoto by Yana Paskova/Getty ImagesA passerby walks his dog near an accumulation of snow on Jan. 27, 2015, in Central Park in New York. Snow levels in New York have ranged from 7.8 inches in Central Park to more than 28 inches in Eastern Long Island.Blizzard Latest: Boston Gets the Massive Storm It Expected, NYC Does Nothttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2015/01/26/blizzard_2015_latest_updates_on_the_east_coast_snow_storm.html
<p>That’s a wrap for our Slatest blizzard live blog.</p>
<p>As of 7 p.m., Boston has clinched at least the city’s 6th biggest snowstorm in history with 23.3 inches on the books so far. It’s still snowing there—an additional 1 to 3 inches are expected before snowfall ends by midnight. It’s unlikely the city will overtake its all-time single snowstorm record, 27.5 inches in February 2003, but it’ll be close. Counting this week’s blizzard, five of the ten biggest snowstorms in city history have all occurred since 1997. Weather records in Boston date back to 1872.</p>
<p>The forecast for a “historic” and “crippling” blizzard over eastern New England essentially came to pass. Snow totals reached three feet in Worcester County, Massachusetts, at the top end of National Weather Service forecasts.</p>
<p>In sharp contrast, the storm was a flop in New York City. Just 8 to 12 inches fell, much less than the 20 to 30 inches the National Weather Service had been anticipating, though the Weather Channel picked up on these trends early enough to <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2015/01/27/how_everyone_but_the_weather_channel_botched_the_nyc_blizzard_forecast.html">issue a nearly perfect forecast</a>. In a midday press conference on Tuesday, Mayor Bill de Blasio <a href="https://twitter.com/NYCMayorsOffice/status/560118135500861440">said</a>, “We obviously missed the worst of the storm.” Defending actions by his office and Gov. Andrew Cuomo to shut schools and freeze regional transportation, de Blasio added, “Prepare for the worst. Hope for the best.”</p>
<p>Early Tuesday morning, a Philadelphia-area National Weather Service meteorologist <a href="http://newyork.cbslocal.com/2015/01/27/national-weather-service-meteorologist-apologizes-for-storm-forecast/">publicly apologized</a> via Twitter for the poor forecast, saying, “You made a lot of tough decisions expecting us to get it right, and we didn't. Once again, I'm sorry.”</p>
<p>Winds briefly exceeded hurricane force this morning on Nantucket, with thundersnow reported in Cape Cod. The storm <a href="https://twitter.com/capecast/status/560219853668515842">carved a new inlet</a> at Ballston Beach in Truro, Mass., and significant coastal flooding <a href="http://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/blizzard-15/blizzard-15-homes-flooded-power-outages-along-massachusetts-coast-n294321">was reported</a> during both high tide cycles on Tuesday as blowing snow plastered the sides of beach houses.</p>
<p>There’s a link between this storm and climate change. Ocean water temperatures off the East Coast were much above normal in advance of the storm, as they have been nearly all year. That helped to boost the amount of moisture available within the storm via enhanced evaporation. But there’s an even easier link to climate change: Sea levels in the Northeast have risen by about a foot over the last 100 years or so, about half of which is directly attributable to warming seas and melting glaciers worldwide. There’s 100 percent certainty, in my view, that sea level rise is making the impact of extreme coastal storms like this one worse.</p>Tue, 27 Jan 2015 17:36:00 GMThttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2015/01/26/blizzard_2015_latest_updates_on_the_east_coast_snow_storm.htmlEric Holthaus2015-01-27T17:36:00ZbriefingBlizzard Latest: Boston Gets the Massive Storm It Expected, NYC Does Not227150126001Eric HolthausThe SlatestThe Slatesthttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2015/01/26/blizzard_2015_latest_updates_on_the_east_coast_snow_storm.htmlfalsefalsefalseBlizzard Latest: Boston Gets the Massive Storm It Expected, NYC Does NotBlizzard Latest: Boston Gets the Massive Storm It Expected, NYC Does NotPhoto by Kayana Szymczak/Getty ImagesSnow swirls in white out conditions during the blizzard in Boston.This Week’s East Coast Blizzard Could Be the Biggest on Recordhttp://www.slate.com/blogs/future_tense/2015/01/25/this_week_s_east_coast_blizzard_could_be_the_biggest_on_record.html
<p>After a <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/future_tense/2015/01/22/bomb_nor_easter_will_bring_weekend_snow_chances_to_east_coast.html">relatively snow-free winter so far</a>, a major blizzard is set to bring parts of the Northeast to a standstill early this week.</p>
<p>The National Weather Service (NWS) in New York City is calling the potential for epic snowfall “historic,” while the Boston office says the incoming storm is a “textbook case for a major winter storm/blizzard.” Three-day snow totals could reach 24–36 inches in each city—good enough to rival <a href="https://twitter.com/JaniceDean/status/559435066729054208">the biggest Northeast snowstorms on record</a>.</p>
<p>That kind of forecast is jaw-dropping, even for the most jaded meteorological aficionado. Blizzard warnings <a href="http://www.weather.gov/">have been posted</a> from coastal New Jersey to Maine, including New York City and Boston. “Blizzard” is actually a technical meteorological term <a href="http://w1.weather.gov/glossary/index.php?letter=b">that requires</a> near-zero visibilities and sustained winds or frequent gusts exceeding 35 mph for at least three consecutive hours. These criteria are typically met in the Northeast only once every few years. The Boston NWS office warns “travel may become impossible and life-threatening.” If the storm comes as forecast, it would be enough to temporarily cripple the region. In its latest update Sunday afternoon, the New York City NWS office said to expect gusts up to 50 mph in the city, with brief gusts up to hurricane force on Eastern Long Island. Wow.</p>
<p>The NWS warns that, in addition to the snow and wind, coastal storm surge could reach four feet in Western Long Island Sound and in Eastern Massachusetts—that’s on top of 10- to 15-foot waves, which would be big enough to damage coastal properties. If you live on the waterfront, it’s probably best to treat this storm more like a close brush with a tropical storm or hurricane. The NWS in Boston says, “[T]his is a storm that could produce one or more new inlets along exposed east and northeast facing barrier beaches.”</p>
<p>For snow lovers, this is the stuff of legend. For everyone else, it’s a time to take a deep breath and prepare to ride out a whopper. If you find yourself stuck at home this week, hyperbole aside, take solace in the fact that it’s very likely no one has experienced a storm quite like this for centuries. I mean, New York City could break its all-time snowfall record for a single storm by <em>10 inches</em>.</p>
<p>What’s making this particular storm so potent? In sharp contrast to <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/future_tense/2015/01/22/bomb_nor_easter_will_bring_weekend_snow_chances_to_east_coast.html">last week’s nor’easter</a>, there’s no shortage of cold air this time around. A blocking high-pressure system to the north will slow the storm’s advance to a crawl—with the center spending up to 24 hours just off Long Island—right as it is peaking in strength. Combine that with <a href="https://twitter.com/anthonywx/status/559389687258050560">a roaring, perfectly kinked jet stream</a>, and you have all the ingredients for an explosive storm that will <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/future_tense/2015/01/22/bomb_nor_easter_will_bring_weekend_snow_chances_to_east_coast.html">reach “bomb” criteria</a>, funneling Arctic air southwards and converting it into a thick blanket of wind-whipped white. All the extra cold air may also boost snow totals, because “drier,” colder snow is up to 50 percent fluffier than “wet” snow that falls with temperatures nearer the freezing point. Very strong winds should create drifts the height of humans. The NWS in Boston expects “pockets of thundersnow” during the overnight hours late Monday.</p>
<p>All this means there’s very little chance of a bust. An <a href="http://www.weather.gov/okx/winter">experimental probabilistic snow forecast</a> by the NWS shows a 67 percent chance of at least 18 inches in New York City. In Boston, <a href="http://www.weather.gov/box/winter">the odds</a> are 75 percent. I don’t know about you, but that’s seems good enough to invest in a snowblower.</p>
<p>Not that long ago, the thing to do on a week like this would be to camp out in front of the Weather Channel and <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/future_tense/2014/11/13/lake_effect_thundersnow_video_from_ohio_opens_winter_with_a_bang.html">live vicariously through Jim Cantore</a>. But now the best place to watch a storm <a href="https://twitter.com/EricHolthaus/lists/go-to-weather-climate">is on Twitter</a>. Predictably, weather Twitter is already freaking out over this storm:</p>
<p>The suddenly very active weather pattern may produce yet another snowstorm on Thursday night, with at least two major blasts of frigid Arctic air plunging Northeast temperatures to near zero Fahrenheit this weekend and next week. The air that’s set to comprise Saturday’s atmosphere over New York City is now somewhere over Eastern Siberia.</p>Sun, 25 Jan 2015 22:05:00 GMThttp://www.slate.com/blogs/future_tense/2015/01/25/this_week_s_east_coast_blizzard_could_be_the_biggest_on_record.htmlEric Holthaus2015-01-25T22:05:00ZTechnologyThis Week’s East Coast Blizzard Could Be the Biggest on Record203150125001weatherEric HolthausFuture TenseFuture Tensehttp://www.slate.com/blogs/future_tense/2015/01/25/this_week_s_east_coast_blizzard_could_be_the_biggest_on_record.htmlfalsefalsefalseThis Week’s East Coast Blizzard Could Be the Biggest on RecordThis Week’s East Coast Blizzard Could Be the Biggest on RecordPhoto by Spencer Platt/Getty ImagesThe coming storm will make this image, from February 2014, look positively summery. &nbsp;Hundreds of Private Jets Delivered People to Davos. Also, It’s Climate Change Day at Davos.http://www.slate.com/blogs/future_tense/2015/01/23/davos_climate_change_hundreds_of_private_jets_at_the_world_economic_forum.html
<p>It’s<a href="http://www.theguardian.com/sustainable-business/2014/jan/24/davos-2014-climate-change-resource-security-sustainability-day-three-live"> climate day at the World Economic Forum in Davos</a>, which means 2,500 of the world’s elite—many of whom flew in on one of the<a href="http://fusion.net/story/39589/fact-check-how-many-private-jets-actually-flew-in-to-davos/"> hundreds of private jets servicing the conference</a>—are talking about how burning fossil fuels is slowly but steadily making our planet uninhabitable.</p>
<p>This is the kind of day that was on my mind when I <a href="http://www.slate.com/articles/technology/future_tense/2014/10/plane_carbon_footprint_i_went_a_year_without_flying_to_fight_climate_change.single.html">permanently gave up flying in 2013</a>. Now, I’m not saying that sort of decision is for everyone. But there came a point where, as a journalist who frequently writes about climate change, I just couldn’t live with my ballooning carbon footprint anymore. Yes, there are things that can only be accomplished in person (like shaking hands and going skiing), but if the world needs to shift away from fossil fuels as quickly as possible, why not start today? Imagine for a moment a world in which leaders embody for themselves <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/future_tense/2014/09/30/china_s_not_the_problem_with_carbon_emissions_we_are.html">the kind of deep decarbonization</a> scientists say is necessary to defuse global warming. Suddenly, the task before us might seem a little more manageable.</p>
<p>Earlier this week, one of the Davos attendees, billionaire Jeff Greene, railed against American excess … after taking his wife, children, and two nannies along to Switzerland with him in one of those private jets.</p>
<p>“America’s lifestyle expectations are far too high and need to be adjusted so we have less things and a smaller, better existence,” Greene <a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2015-01-21/billionaire-greene-goes-long-on-u-s-while-bemoaning-jobs-crisis.html">told Bloomberg</a>. “We need to reinvent our whole system of life.”</p>
<p>Greene, who ran for U.S. Senate in Florida in 2010, has a <a href="http://www.motherjones.com/mojo/2010/07/jeff-greene-us-senate-florida-belize-reef">less-than-stellar track record</a> when it comes to being an advocate for environmental sustainability. According to a 2010 article in the <em>Tampa Bay Times</em>, <a href="http://www.tampabay.com/news/environment/water/belize-jeff-greenes-yacht-tore-up-coral-reef-left-unpaid-fines-up-to-187/1110511">in March 2005</a> Greene’s three-story, 145-foot yacht Summerwind—the size of ”a 14-story building turned on its side”—dropped anchor onto one of the planet’s most pristine coral reefs in Belize, inflicting a 50-by-200-foot swath of damage. Greene wasn’t aboard at the time and denies the incident ever took place, despite scientific damage surveys and an open case file maintained by Belize’s Department of the Environment. In 2010, Belize said that if Greene or the Summerwind—whose gas tank costs about $100,000 to fill—ever returned to the country, he would be subject to a $1.87 million fine. (It’s not clear where the situation stands now.)</p>
<p>It seems Greene, like so many other thought leaders, is taking a “you first” strategy on that whole “smaller, better existence” thing.</p>
<p>Setting <a href="http://www.slate.com/articles/business/moneybox/2014/09/americans_have_no_idea_how_bad_inequality_is_new_harvard_business_school.html">massive income inequality</a> aside for a moment, if those that live in excess agree to pay their fair share of the damage they’re inflicting on the climate, it would be a start. A global tax on carbon could do the trick, and help shift incentives toward less resource-intensive but <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/future_tense/2014/04/13/ipcc_u_n_climate_report_fundamental_decarbonization_won_t_wreck_the_economy.html">still very comfortable lifestyles</a>. But to truly solve climate change, it’s going to take <a href="http://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2008/07/07/the-island-in-the-wind">a bit of imagination</a> and forward thinking—exactly the kinds of big ideas Davos was designed to provide.</p>
<p>During this week’s State of the Union address, Barack Obama <a href="http://www.carbonbrief.org/blog/2015/01/obama-strong-words-on-climate-change-in-sixth-state-of-the-union-address/">ratcheted up his language on the issue</a>, saying “no challenge poses a greater threat to future generations than climate change.” I just wish our leaders would start acting like it.</p>Fri, 23 Jan 2015 17:59:00 GMThttp://www.slate.com/blogs/future_tense/2015/01/23/davos_climate_change_hundreds_of_private_jets_at_the_world_economic_forum.htmlEric Holthaus2015-01-23T17:59:00ZTechnologyHundreds of Private Jets Delivered People to Davos. Also, It’s Climate Change Day at Davos.203150123002climate changedavosEric HolthausFuture TenseFuture Tensehttp://www.slate.com/blogs/future_tense/2015/01/23/davos_climate_change_hundreds_of_private_jets_at_the_world_economic_forum.htmlfalsefalsefalseHundreds of Private Jets Delivered People to Davos. Also, It’s Climate Change Day at Davos.Hundreds of Private Jets Delivered People to Davos. Also, It’s Climate Change Day at Davos.Photo by FABRICE COFFRINI/AFP/Getty ImagesAl Gore at the World Economic Forum annual meeting on Jan. 21, 2015, in Davos. &nbsp;A Haunting Timelapse Video Shows Arctic Sea Ice Slowly Slip Awayhttp://www.slate.com/blogs/future_tense/2015/01/23/climate_change_haunting_timelapse_shows_arctic_sea_ice_slip_away_video.html
<p>A warning: The video you’re about to watch is heartbreaking. In just a few seconds, you’ll see 27 years of Arctic sea ice melt like a handful of snowflakes next to a space heater.</p>
<p>The animation is beautiful, until you realize the implications. Sea ice has become the canary in the coal mine of global climate change.</p>
<p>This animation was produced by painstakingly <a href="http://climate.gov/news-features/videos/old-ice-arctic-vanishingly-rare">tracking individual bergs of sea ice</a> for years by satellite and ocean buoys. According to climate.gov, as the animation begins in the 1980s, 26 percent of the Arctic ice pack was four years old or older. By last year, that number had dropped to 10 percent. The oldest ice, once common throughout the Arctic, is now banished to a narrow region near northern Canada.</p>
<p>The Arctic has been warming <a href="http://www.climatecentral.org/news/persistent-warming-arctic-report-card-18456">twice as fast</a> as the rest of the planet in recent years, due in part to the loss of the bright white reflecting surface of sea ice. Darker water is able to retain more heat, leading to a self-reinforcing cycle of melting. A <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/future_tense/2014/08/01/huge_waves_in_arctic_demonstrate_global_warming_related_ice_loss.html">recent study</a> showed that as more of the Arctic reverts to open water, winds are increasing and waves are growing larger—which are further enhancing ice loss. <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/future_tense/2014/09/03/new_study_links_polar_vortex_to_climate_change.html">Another study</a> showed that changes in the Arctic may be altering the weather, too.</p>
<p>Here’s what’s happening: For the last 15 years or so, increasingly warm water has been making its way northward, through the narrow gap between Alaska and Russia. Once inside the Arctic, the warm water turns into an ice-eating machine. The summer surge of warmth gnaws away at the edges of the ever-shrinking gyre of floating ice, a relic of the Arctic’s frozen past. New ice can no longer replace the ice that is naturally lost through the Fram Strait, east of Greenland. The result has been a sharp decline in old ice in recent years, with much less resilient younger ice taking its place.</p>
<p>According to the National Snow and Ice Data Center, the 10 lowest Arctic sea ice seasons have all occurred in the last 10 years.</p>
<p>Last year’s melt season was more of the same—resulting in the sixth-lowest extent on record, with open water <a href="http://www.climatecentral.org/news/2014-arctic-sea-ice-extent-18039">as far north as 300 miles from the North Pole</a>. That was a new record for the satellite era, which began in 1979.</p>
<p>Profound changes to the Arctic may be inevitable, but that doesn’t mean climate change is a lost cause. The <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/future_tense/2014/04/13/ipcc_u_n_climate_report_fundamental_decarbonization_won_t_wreck_the_economy.html">most recent report</a> from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change said there’s still two precious decades left before the world is locked in to “dangerous” levels of global warming. That ought to be all the motivation we need.</p>Fri, 23 Jan 2015 15:00:00 GMThttp://www.slate.com/blogs/future_tense/2015/01/23/climate_change_haunting_timelapse_shows_arctic_sea_ice_slip_away_video.htmlEric Holthaus2015-01-23T15:00:00ZTechnologyA Haunting Timelapse Video Shows Arctic Sea Ice Slowly Slip Away203150123001climate changearcticEric HolthausFuture TenseFuture Tensehttp://www.slate.com/blogs/future_tense/2015/01/23/climate_change_haunting_timelapse_shows_arctic_sea_ice_slip_away_video.htmlfalsefalsefalseA Haunting Timelapse Video Shows Arctic Sea Ice Slowly Slip AwayA Haunting Timelapse Video Shows Arctic Sea Ice Slowly Slip Away1519028538001AQ~~,AAAAAASoY90~,_gW1ZHvKG_1U0LqDiRqg6y9siD7-Z_bO40056450330011519028538001AQ~~,AAAAAASoY90~,_gW1ZHvKG_1U0LqDiRqg6y9siD7-Z_bO40056450330011519028538001AQ~~,AAAAAASoY90~,_gW1ZHvKG_1U0LqDiRqg6y9siD7-Z_bO40056450330011519028538001AQ~~,AAAAAASoY90~,_gW1ZHvKG_1U0LqDiRqg6y9siD7-Z_bO40056450330011519028538001AQ~~,AAAAAASoY90~,_gW1ZHvKG_1U0LqDiRqg6y9siD7-Z_bO40056450330011519028538001AQ~~,AAAAAASoY90~,_gW1ZHvKG_1U0LqDiRqg6y9siD7-Z_bO40056450330011519028538001AQ~~,AAAAAASoY90~,_gW1ZHvKG_1U0LqDiRqg6y9siD7-Z_bO4005645033001Photo by Harry Gerwin/Getty ImagesIN FLIGHT - APRIL 21: From an altitude of 500 feet a photographer captures an image of an iceberg from the cargo ramp of a Coast Guard Hercules C-130 Aircraft April 21, 2003 in the north Atlantic Ocean. The International Ice Patrol flies over the north Atlantic searching for icebergs every other week during iceberg season, which is from February to July. The crew records the iceberg's shape, size and location in an effort to prevent collisions between ships and icebergs. The patrol, organized by the U.S. Coast Guard and supported by 18 nations, has searched the waters since the year following the Titanic disaster. (Photo by Harry Gerwin/Getty Images)“Bomb” Nor’easter Will Bring Weekend Snow Chances—Finally!—to East Coasthttp://www.slate.com/blogs/future_tense/2015/01/22/bomb_nor_easter_will_bring_weekend_snow_chances_to_east_coast.html
<p>East Coast snow lovers have had a rough go this winter. They won’t have to wait much longer for what could be the biggest storm of the season.</p>
<p>The National Weather Service is forecasting a coastal storm peaking on Saturday that could bring all manner of wintry peril to snow-starved city-dwellers from Washington, D.C. to Boston. Another storm Sunday night could bring more accumulating snow to the same areas.</p>
<p>The first storm is expected to undergo rapid intensification as it slides up the coast, packing tropical storm force winds and a plume of tropical moisture stretching all the way down to the Caribbean. The storm’s low pressure center is expected to deepen fast enough to attain the status of a meteorological “bomb,” a technical term meaning a drop in air pressure exceeding 24 millibars in 24 hours. In fact, Thursday morning’s GFS model predicted a drop twice that fast, from 988 millibars Saturday morning to 964 millibars just 12 hours later.</p>
<p>The storm’s anticipated rapid strengthening throws an extra layer of uncertainty as to what we can expect, weatherwise. Quickly growing storms like this one sometimes exhibit <a href="http://www.srh.noaa.gov/topics/attach/html/ssd98-10.htm">dynamic cooling</a>, which can help nudge the atmosphere toward producing more snow. Think of popping the top off a soda can under pressure—the exterior of the can quickly gets colder.</p>
<p>On the other hand, the overall weather pattern is lacking a substantial reservoir of cold air to the north right now, increasing the chances that warmer air from over the ocean could cut into the potential for what might have otherwise been a blockbuster storm. Snowflakes could turn into a messy mix of ice and slush. That’s giving us an unusually wide range of potential snow totals for a storm less than two days away. In New York City, for example, 2 to 8 inches are expected. In Washington, <a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2015/01/22/juicy-storm-likely-friday-night-and-saturday-but-a-lot-more-wet-than-white/">warm air looks like it will win out</a>, with at best a mix of rain and snow adding up to a dreary gray day. In Boston, Winter Storm Watches have already been posted for areas just inland of the coast, where brief periods of heavy, wet snow may make travel difficult and take a toll on power lines.</p>
<p>Oddly, Sunday night’s storm seems a bit more clear cut even though it’s further away. The storm will be weaker—originating over the Great Lakes—but the atmosphere should be colder. A few more inches of snow is likely, mainly from New York City northward into New England.</p>
<p>After that, a major cold snap could dive as far south as Miami to close out the month of January. Winter is by no means over yet.</p>
<p>With only three inches since winter began, Washington has half the amount of snow it normally has by this point in January. New York City, which typically has racked up 10 inches by now has fared even worse, with just one-third of normal snowfall. Heck, even Buffalo—<a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/future_tense/2014/11/20/buffalo_snowstorm_photos_and_video_forecast_is_for_up_to_100_inches_of_snow.html">Buffalo!</a>—now has a below-normal snow year, running 2<sub><sup> </sup></sub><sup>1</sup>⁄<sub>2 </sub><sup></sup>inches behind its average pace as of Jan. 21. The East Coast snow drought has led to some interesting statistics:</p>
<p>A <a href="http://www.climatecentral.org/news/winters-are-warming-all-across-the-us-15590">2013 report</a> by Climate Central shows gradually warming temperatures are expected to reduce average snowfall over the next few decades, though year-to-year winter totals will continue to be highly variable.</p>Thu, 22 Jan 2015 21:38:30 GMThttp://www.slate.com/blogs/future_tense/2015/01/22/bomb_nor_easter_will_bring_weekend_snow_chances_to_east_coast.htmlEric Holthaus2015-01-22T21:38:30ZTechnology“Bomb” Nor’easter Will Bring Weekend Snow Chances—Finally!—to East Coast203150122004weatherEric HolthausFuture TenseFuture Tensehttp://www.slate.com/blogs/future_tense/2015/01/22/bomb_nor_easter_will_bring_weekend_snow_chances_to_east_coast.htmlfalsefalsefalse“Bomb” Nor’easter Will Bring Weekend Snow Chances—Finally!—to East Coast“Bomb” Nor’easter Will Bring Weekend Snow Chances—Finally!—to East CoastPhoto by William Thomas Cain/Getty ImagesTime to break out the shovels?Senate Votes 98-1 That Climate Change Is Real but Splits on That Pesky Causehttp://www.slate.com/blogs/future_tense/2015/01/21/senate_votes_that_climate_change_is_real_but_doesn_t_agree_on_cause.html
<p>Confused by the “science” on climate change? Well, apparently so is the U.S. Senate.</p>
<p>In a series of nonbinding (but potentially embarrassing) votes on Wednesday, the Senate has decided overwhelmingly that global warming exists. Minutes later, in a second vote, senators failed to agree on a root cause.</p>
<p>According to the <a href="http://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/230316-senate-votes-98-1-that-climate-change-is-real"><em>Hill</em></a>, the Senate first voted 98-1 in favor of a nonbinding amendment that said “climate change is real and not a hoax.” Republicans read the text of that amendment in such a way as to absolve themselves of taking a stand on the human component of global warming. (Republican Sen. Roger Wicker, of Mississippi, was the lone holdout.) The second vote on an amendment by Democratic Sen. Brian Schatz, of Hawaii, wasn’t so clear-cut. That amendment read, in part: “It is the sense of Congress that 1) climate change is real, and 2) human activity significantly contributes to climate change.” Though the vote on the second amendment was 50-49 in favor, it needed 60 votes to pass.</p>
<p>The first amendment was intended to take a swipe at Sen. James Inhofe, an Oklahoma Republican, and the new chairman of the Environment and Public Works Committee. He’s also a leading Senate climate denier <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/bad_astronomy/2014/11/08/colbert_and_climate_science_and_the_republican_midterm_win.html">who’s so sure climate change is a massive conspiracy</a> by the world’s scientists, <a href="http://www.amazon.com/dp/1936488493/?tag=slatmaga-20">he wrote a book about it</a>. In a surprise, he actually voted for Wednesday’s amendment, “but he made clear he doesn't believe humans are the primary driver of climate change” said the<em> Hill</em>. Instead, he used the Bible to support his vote:</p>
<p>“Climate is changing, and climate has always changed, and always will, there's archeological evidence of that, there's biblical evidence of that, there's historic evidence of that, it will always change,” Inhofe said on the Senate floor. “The hoax is that there are some people that are so arrogant to think that they are so powerful that they can change climate. Man can't change climate.”</p>
<p>The debate over S.1 is the first about energy on the Senate floor in eight years, according to the <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2015/01/13/us/senate-votes-to-start-debate-on-keystone-bill.html?ref=politics&amp;_r=0"><em>New York Times</em></a>. Obama is expected to veto the bill, but that didn’t stop the Republican-controlled Congress from taking a stand. “Part of the Democrats’ strategy is to put Republicans on the record about an issue that’s controversial inside the GOP but is much less so with the public and Democratic Party,” says the <em>Wall Street Journal</em>.</p>
<p><em>Mashable</em>’s Andrew Freedman <a href="http://mashable.com/2015/01/13/senate-vote-manmade-global-warming/">notes </a>that this isn’t the first time the Senate has attempted to legislate the existence of climate change. In 2005, the Senate approved a nonbinding amendment similar to the second amendment. That the Senate wasn’t able to do the same on Wednesday is telling of how increasingly political the question of human-caused climate change has become in the last decade.</p>
<p>Yet, since 2005, evidence has continued to mount that climate change is driven by human activity. As Obama noted during Tuesday’s State of the Union, <a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-30852588">14 of the last 15 years</a> have been the hottest on record globally. More greenhouse gases were emitted into the atmosphere in 2014 than in any other year in human history. In his speech, Obama said “no challenge poses a greater threat to future generations.”</p>
<p>Because the votes are nonbinding, there are no real implications beyond the political. But with the 2016 presidential campaign just around the corner, Democrats figure this is a perfect time to put potential Republican contenders on the record. Among them, Florida’s Republican Sen. Marco Rubio stands out. Rubio, who <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/bad_astronomy/2015/01/13/nasa_trouble_science_denier_ted_cruz_will_oversee_senate_committee_for_oversight.html">isn’t quite sure how old the Earth is</a>, was recently installed as chair of the Senate Subcommittee on Oceans, Atmosphere, Fisheries and Coast Guard, where he directly oversees the budget of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, America’s leading scientific agency on climate. Oh, <a href="http://www.predictwise.com/politics/2016RepNomination">he’s also polling</a> among the top three Republican contenders for president in 2016.</p>
<p>Inhofe, Rubio, and Ted Cruz, of Texas—another Republican presidential contender—all voted against the second amendment on the cause of climate change. According to <a href="http://www.nationaljournal.com/energy/jim-inhofe-ted-cruz-and-marco-rubio-just-voted-to-say-climate-change-is-real-20150121?ref=t.co&amp;mrefid=walkingheader"><em>National Journal</em></a>, Lamar Alexander of Tennessee, Kelly Ayotte of New Hampshire, Mark Kirk of Illinois, Susan Collins of Maine, and Lindsey Graham of South Carolina were the only Republicans to vote against party lines on the amendment endorsing humans as the primary cause of climate change.</p>
<p>The vote comes after <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/future_tense/2015/01/20/sotu_2015_obama_mocks_gop_s_i_m_not_a_scientist_line_on_climate.html">Obama mocked Republicans</a> during his State of the Union speech for using the &quot;<a href="http://www.slate.com/articles/health_and_science/science/2014/10/i_m_not_a_scientist_excuse_politicians_don_t_need_to_be_experts_to_make.html">I’m not a scientist</a>&quot; defense to justify continued knuckle-dragging on climate change. “The Pentagon says that climate change poses immediate risks to our national security. We should act like it,” he said.</p>
<p>The Senate is expected to take up the issue again on Thursday, including votes on at least one more amendment regarding the cause of climate change:</p>Wed, 21 Jan 2015 23:33:00 GMThttp://www.slate.com/blogs/future_tense/2015/01/21/senate_votes_that_climate_change_is_real_but_doesn_t_agree_on_cause.htmlEric Holthaus2015-01-21T23:33:00ZTechnologySenate Votes 98-1 That Climate Change Is Real but Splits on That Pesky Cause203150121003climate changeglobal warmingEric HolthausFuture TenseFuture Tensehttp://www.slate.com/blogs/future_tense/2015/01/21/senate_votes_that_climate_change_is_real_but_doesn_t_agree_on_cause.htmlfalsefalsefalseSenate Votes 98-1 That Climate Change Is Real but Splits on That Pesky CauseSenate Votes 98-1 That Climate Change Is Real but Splits on That Pesky Cause