Kyle Orton is a winner. That’s what you hear, from Denver to Chicago, and the numbers certainly back it up.

Orton is 29-16 as an NFL starter, including 8-4 with the Broncos. So, the thinking goes, he deserves a big new contract. After all, winning is the name of the game.

Brandon Marshall is a beast. In fact, he’s now The Beast. He has two of the top four receiving days in NFL history by number of catches. Clearly, he too deserves a big new contract.

Josh McDaniels is an offensive genius. Maybe, as some of the older hands throughout the league now refer to him, the boy genius, but a prodigy nevertheless, architect of the most productive offense in NFL history in New England two years ago.

So, why is the Broncos’ offense mediocre by just about every statistical measure? And what does that say about the advisability of a big new contract for the quarterback?

One could argue that the offense has nowhere to go but up. McDaniels installed a new system, and these things take time.

Of course, that’s what people said last year too. Marshall, Eddie Royal, Tony Scheffler and Jay Cutler were still learning to play together. Give them time.

Except for the quarterback and running backs, this year’s offense is pretty much the same group. The backs have certainly been healthier than they were a year ago. And yet, offensive production is down. Points are down and yardage is way down. First downs and third-down conversions are both way down.

The only significant difference between Cutler’s stats last year and Orton’s this year are the volume numbers. Cutler threw for 4,526 yards. Orton is on a pace to throw for about 3,575, or roughly 1,000 fewer.

Is this difference because of the change from Cutler to Orton, or the change from Mike Shanahan to McDaniels? Or both?

From outside the Broncos’ meeting rooms, it’s impossible to say for certain, but Orton’s performance is reminiscent of Jake Plummer’s last couple of years in Denver. Plummer threw for 4,089 yards in 2004, his second year with the Broncos, but he also threw 20 interceptions and completed only 58.2 percent of his passes.

The following year, Shanahan stressed efficiency and taking care of the ball. Plummer’s passing yardage dropped to 3,366, but his completion percentage rose and his interceptions fell. The Broncos went 13-3 and made it to the AFC title game.

For Plummer, playing so carefully did not come naturally. He had been a risk-taker for most of his career. For Orton, it does seem to come naturally. It is the way he had to play in Chicago for lack of offensive firepower. When he arrived in Denver, his new coach emphasized taking care of the ball and he fit right in.

As in 2005, the Broncos appear poised to make the playoffs operating a careful, low-risk offense. The difference is they were second in the league in rushing that year. Their offense, while careful, was more productive, ranking seventh in scoring. They are 20th this year, scoring just less than 20 points a game.

So the question is whether a careful quarterback operating a statistically mediocre offense will get the Broncos where they want to go, either now or in the future. McDaniels will patiently explain that improved execution will produce more scoring, but at some point your level of execution is who you are.

Will the Broncos improve as they gain experience in McDaniels’ system? No doubt. But there will also be player turnover and injuries and all the rest. No team executes perfectly. The fact remains that McDaniels’ offense broke records with Tom Brady at the controls. It is in the middle of the pack with Orton.

The Broncos’ surprising success this year has come mostly on the back of a dramatically improved defense. But if Super Bowl history is any guide, not to mention the success of the Colts, Saints and Vikings this season, there is a strong correlation between quarterbacking and success.

Orton has earned a new deal, but not a franchise deal. If he thinks he can do better on the open market, the Broncos should let him try. And that Chicago first-round draft pick McDaniels presciently kept could now be the Broncos’ ticket to a quarterback of the future.

Four assistant basketball coaches at Division I schools and a top Adidas executive were among 10 people charged Tuesday with crimes including bribery and fraud as part of a wide-ranging federal investigation into corruption in college basketball.

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