With the introduction Wednesday of an immigration bill in Colorado patterned after Arizona’s Senate Bill 1070, and the expected rollout of a bill to allow in-state tuition to illegal immigrants, one of the most radioactive issues under the gold dome is back in the spotlight.

But it’s unclear whether either of those two proposals, or any of the other expected bills dealing with illegal immigrants, is likely to become law.

With a divided legislature this year — Republicans have regained the state House; Democrats still hold the Senate — there is a real possibility nothing will make it through the legislature. And there’s the question of whether new Democratic Gov. John Hickenlooper would sign any of the bills if lawmakers passed them.

Hickenlooper has said generally that he would veto any bill that attempted to impose an Arizona-style crackdown on illegal immigration, but his office said he had not taken any position on Senate Bill 54, the measure filed Wednesday by Sen. Kent Lambert, R-Colorado Springs, that emulates a portion of the Grand Canyon State’s law.

“The Arizona law poses troubling constitutional issues, and even many Arizonans are having second thoughts,” said Eric Brown, Hickenlooper’s spokesman.

Under Lambert’s bill, police would be allowed but not required to arrest anyone if they had probable cause to believe they were an illegal immigrant who is facing deportation or against whom federal immigration authorities have issued a detainer order, or who has been indicted or convicted of aggravated felonies. The bill, though, also makes it clear the measure would apply to anyone who had failed to register as an alien entering the country under federal law, meaning that police could arrest someone if they had probable cause to believe the person was an illegal immigrant.

“Our bill is a serious effort to crack down on dangerous illegal aliens who have committed aggravated felonies,” said Rep. David Balmer, R-Centennial, the bill’s House sponsor. “We are trying specifically to go after those illegal aliens who have an ICE (U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement) order out on them.”

Doubts of activists, cops

Colorado is one of at least four states considering legislation similar to Arizona’s.

A 2006 law in Colorado already requires police to report to ICE anyone they arrest and suspect of being an illegal immigrant, except in domestic-violence cases.

Lambert said his bill goes a step further and allows police specifically to arrest people if there is probable cause to believe they are in the country illegally or if they have committed serious crimes or are facing deportation.

How would police have probable cause to believe that?

Lambert, without offering specific examples, said there would likely have to be a multitude of factors.

“Probable cause is a reasonably high and well-defined threshold,” he said.

A similar provision in the Arizona law has been blocked after a district court initially agreed with the contention that the state law intrudes on the power of the federal government to enforce immigration law.

Immigrant-rights advocates condemned Lambert’s bill almost as soon as it was introduced.

“At a time when most Coloradans are concerned about jobs and the economy, it is mind-boggling that a handful of Colorado senators would pursue the same divisive legislation that has cost the state of Arizona millions in lost tourism revenue and wasted taxpayer dollars on lawsuit challenges,” said Julien Ross, executive director of the Colorado Immigrant Rights Coalition. “Colorado should instead pursue immigration policies that reaffirm our global reputation as a welcoming and business-friendly state.”

The Colorado Association of Chiefs of Police issued a statement that, while not yet taking a position on the bill, expressed concern about any legislation putting police officers in the position of acting as immigration enforcement officers. The group said only the federal government can enforce immigration law.

Lambert’s bill was introduced in the Senate, which means it may well face an early death in a Democratic-controlled committee. The question is why the legislation was not instead introduced in the House, where it almost certainly would have stood a better chance of getting to the chamber’s floor and even passing.

“I think there needs to be an up or down vote on this in the Senate. If the past holds true, it may very well be assigned to a committee and be killed on a straight party-line vote. If that’s the philosophy of the Senate leadership, then that needs to speak for itself,” Lambert said.

Some observers, though, wonder whether the bill would pass in the GOP-controlled House.

“I would’ve run it if I were over in the House,” Lambert said. “I happen to be in the Senate, so that’s where I’m starting it.”

Tuition fight

There has been almost as much talk about an expected bill backed by some Democrats that would allow illegal immigrants who have graduated from Colorado high schools to attend public colleges at in-state tuition rates. That bill is expected to be introduced by Sens. Michael Johnston, D-Denver, and Angela Giron, D-Pueblo.

But the measure could face even tougher sledding than a similar one in 2009. The bill that year failed 16-18, with five Democrats joining Republicans in voting against it.

This year, Senate Democrats hold a 20-15 majority, one less than in 2009, so several Democrats likely would have to flip their 2009 votes for the bill to pass the Senate. And then it would likely die a quick death in the House before ever reaching Hickenlooper’s desk.

Brown said the governor would need more specifics before weighing in on the issue.

“During the campaign, John was asked whether he supported in-state tuition for undocumented students, and he said ‘no’ — it was at the Channel 9 debate,” Brown said. “It was a one-word answer to a more complicated question. We’d have to get more details about any pending legislation before taking a position.”

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