Solar Prospects Look Good Through Mid-2014, Says J.P. Morgan

By Shuli Ren

Third quarter was encouraging for the solar industry, as most suppliers reported year-on-year growth and issued strong 2013 guidance. For instance, Trina Solar (TSL) reported a record 775MW shipment, up 104% from a year ago and nearly 100MW higher than the company’s expectations. Trina guided 2.58-2.63GW of shipments for 2013, up from 2.3-2.4GW previously. Jinko Solar (JKS) is another example.

J.P. Morgan believes the outlook for the solar industry looks good through “mid-2014, at least”, because of strong demand from Japan and China, the alleviation of excess capacity (China of course!), and many players looking to diversify their revenue stream. Here are analysts Paul Coster, Mark Strouse, and Paul J Chung:

Demand from Japan and China is strong. Between 6.9 and 9.4 GW of solar capacity will be deployed in Japan in 2013 (source: Sharp) growing to more than 9GW in 2014. China has pledged to generate 35GW of solar capacity by 2015, and demand should exceed 12GW in 2014, which should absorb domestic production capacity. Overall, we are now looking for over 20% demand growth in 2013 to 37GW, and 24% in 2014 to 46GW.

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Emerging markets have been synonymous with growth, but the outlook for individual nations is constantly changing. Countries from Brazil and Russia to Turkey face challenges including infrastructure bottlenecks, credit issues and political shifts. The Barrons.com Emerging Markets Daily blog analyzes news, data and research out of emerging markets beyond Asia to help readers navigate the investment landscape.

Barron’s veteran Dimitra DeFotis has been blogging about emerging market investing since traveling to India and Turkey. Based in New York, she previously wrote for Barron’s about U.S. equity investing, including cover stories and roundtables on energy themes. Dimitra was among the first digital journalists at the Chicago Tribune and started her career as a police reporter at the Daily Herald in the Chicago suburbs. Dimitra holds degrees from the University of Illinois and Columbia University, where she was a Knight-Bagehot Fellow in the business and journalism schools.