Sam Juliano’s Prediction For Best Actress…and Sam’s Personal Choice.

Oscar@ Statues[Editor’s Note; The Poll Will Change When A Different Oscar@ Category Is Posted.]

Sam Juliano’s Sums Up Why He Predicts Sandra Bullock, Will Win…For Best Actress.
By Sam Juliano…
The ‘Best Actress in a Leading Role’ category is the year’s most intriguing acting category, and the one boasting in an overall sense the strongest performances. It’s also the one category with a number of terrific performances left on the sidelines, and the one contest that isn’t quite locked up, even with a firm favorite emerging.

Three performances in films from abroad richly deserved recognition, but were left out. Yolande Moreau, who portrayed a real-life turn-of-the-century artist in southern France named ‘Seraphine’ in the film of the same name; Abbie Cornish, who delivered a deeply moving performance as John Keats’s lover in the last years of his life in Jane Campion’s ravishing Bright Star,
and Catalina Saavedra, delivered a quietly-evocative performance as a family servant in the Chilean The Maid.

Ms. Moreau won the prestigious Best Actress from the National Society of Film Critics, while both Ms. Cornish and Ms. Saavedra have won a bevy of critical accolades for their work. A fourth omission here also deserves mentioning, and that’s Emily Blunt, who has been widely-praised for her work in The Young Victoria. According to Sam Juliano…

…Among the actual nominees, one can’t really assert that any are undeserving, though the “favorite” at this point, Sandra Bullock…Continue Below

According to Sam Juliano,…As Sofya Tolstoy, the wife of the great Russian author of War and Peace, Helen Mirren again brings her singular classical charm to her role as a stormy partner of the eccentric writer, and the performance is charismatic and stylish in the best Mirren style.
But having won just a few years ago for The Queen, it’s doubtful the voters would honor her again. Still, the nomination here is richly-deserved, and for me it’s one of the best of the year.

Veteran icon Meryl Streep, who has already won the Best Actress prize from the NY Film Critics Circle and the LA Film Critics Association for this performance, was originally thought to be the clear favorite for the win as the famous cook Julia Child in Julie and Julia, where she plays opposite Stanley Tucci, in a stylish accented turn, at least until Bullock gained strong momentum.

Streep has a record number of nominations, and has won twice for Sophie’s Choice and Kramer vs. Kramer, so many voters would rather cast their vote elsewhere.
Streep’s popularity in the actor’s branch is also rather questionable, so she seems to be a poor bet at this stage to come away with a win, though it’s still possible.

As the title character in Precious, newcomer Gabourey Sidibe plays the Harlem teenger sexually and physically abused in the sordid drama, and she delivers a compelling performance. But as her mother, the actressMo’Nique is a practical shoe-in, and voters won’t likely want to award the same film a second acting prize, though a long-shot upset win is still possible, as her candid work here has been critically-praised and popular with moviegoers.

Many prognosticators are still holding out for an upset by Carey Mulligan, who gives a winning performance as “Jenny” in the British hit An
Education, set in 1960’s London.

Jenny finds out much about her schooling and through a relationship with an older Jewish man, which certainly accentuates the meaning of the film’s title. Oscar voters have a long-standing tradition of voting for the “Babe” when a promising young actress is among the nominees, and this one’s British to boot. With a large British contingent in AMPAS, there is a fair chance at a surprise here, especially since there won’t be in the other acting categories.

================================================Here Goes The Nominated Roles…In Alphabetical Order…
Nominated RoleAs Sofya, Helen Mirren portrays the wife of author Leo Tolstoy, in a woman locked in a battle with her husband’s admirers over the disposition of his royalties in… The Last Station.

Academy Awards History
This is the fourth Academy Award nomination for Helen Mirren. She was previously nominated for:
The Queen (2006) — Winner, Actress in a Leading Role
Gosford Park (2001) — Nominee, Actress in a Supporting Role
The Madness of King George (1994) — Nominee, Actress in a Supporting Role

Nominated RoleCarey Mulligan plays Jenny, an English schoolgirl who is seduced by the charms of an older man in…An Education.

Academy Awards History
This is the first Academy Award nomination for Carey Mulligan.

Nominated Role…As Precious, Gabourey Sidibe, plays a pregnant teenager who struggles to overcome years of abuse at the hands of her parents in…Precious.

Academy Awards History
This is the first Academy Award nomination for Gabourey Sidibe.

Nominated Role…

Meryl Streep portrays cookbook author Julia Child, whose years in France with her husband inspire her to study the art of French cooking…in Julie and Julia.

Academy Awards History
This is the sixteenth Academy Award nomination for Meryl Streep. She was previously nominated for:
Doubt (2008) — Nominee, Actress in a Leading Role
The Devil Wear Prada (2006) — Nominee, Actress in a Leading Role
Adaptation (2002) — Nominee, Actress in a Supporting Role
Music of the Heart (1999) — Nominee, Actress in a Leading Role
One True Thing (1998) — Nominee, Actress in a Leading Role
The Bridges of Madison County (1995) — Nominee, Actress in a Leading Role
Postcards From The Edge (1990) — Nominee, Actress in a Leading Role
A Cry in the Dark (1988) — Nominee, Actress in a Leading Role
Ironweed (1987) — Nominee, Actress in a Leading Role
Out of Africa (1985) — Nominee, Actress in a Leading Role
Silkwood (1983) — Nominee, Actress in a Leading Role
Sophie’s Choice (1982) — Winner, Actress in a Leading Role
The French Lietieutenant’s Woman (1981) — Nominee, Actress in a Leading Role
Kramer Vs. Kramer (1979) — Winner, Actress in a Supporting Role
The Deer Hunter (1978) — Nominee, Actress in a Supporting Role

==============================================

Sam Juliano…Predicts The Winner Will Be…Actress Sandra Bullock
According to Sam Juliano…

…Among the actual nominees, one can’t really assert that any are undeserving, though the “favorite” at this point, Sandra Bullock, may well have given the most pedestrian performance of the lot. Bullock, who was always more revered for her beauty than her acting talent, plays Leigh Anne Tuohy, the wife of a wealthy Memphis couple who eventually adopt an African-American football player after taking a compassionate interest in and providing some coaching. For many this was an inspirational performance; for others it was stereotypical. But there’s little question that it’s one of Bullock’s strongest performances, and it’s wildly popular. At this point, Bullock has established herself as a firm favorite, especially after her Golden Globe and SAG, wins.

Nominated RoleSandra Bullock plays Leigh Anne Tuohy,
a suburban mom who takes in a homeless African-American teenager and encourages his talents as a football player in the… Blindside.Academy Awards History
This is the first Academy Award nomination for Sandra Bullock.

Sam Juliano…Predicts The Winner Will Be: Sandra Bullock, in The Blind Side.
Sam Juliano’s Personal Choice: Helen Mirren, The Last StationNote: My own top performance of the year was by Abbie Cornish for ‘Bright Star’ but she wasn’t nominated. And my second favorite was by Yolande Moreau, another non-nominee.

Now that Sam Juliano, have announced his prediction…Now it’s your turn to go over to the poll and vote too!
Do you agree with Sam Juliano’s prediction? If not, tell the Wonders in the Dark readers, Why not (?)…or tell them why you do agree with Sam Juliano’s prediction.
Once Again,
Thanks,
The images are courtesy of Oscar@.com

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37 Responses

Actually, Sam, though it’s good to mention those who didn’t get nominated (though I wouldn’t count Seraphine as that was 2008), you forgot two for me who would beat allcomers. Katie Jarvis in Fish Tank and, especially, Charlotte Gainsbourg in Antichrist.

Yes Dee Dee thank you for the effective bold print and also for the trailer to Blind Side – it was new to me.

Sam, I am such a die-hard Meryl Streep fan that she will always be my number one whether anyone, anywhere else votes for her performance in any movie ever again. I loved her in Julie and Julia. Can this kind of following and loyalty actual interfere with her getting recognized for awards?

Het Terrill! As you can see, Streep is an actress who commands attention, and many feel exactly the way you do. I like her too, and thought she gave a great performance in DOUBT last year. But she’s most fine in JULIE AND JULIA as well, and she did win the NY and LA prizes. If anything, the following you speak of could help her more than hurt, methinks.

I too would have nominated Charlotte Gainsbourg in Antichrist and also Zoe Saldana in Avatar. I know, I know but whatever the input of the animators I believe the bulk of the credit for making Neytiri a captivating presence must go to Miss Saldana.

While I like Sandra Bullock enough I don’t think her performance in THE BLIND SIDE was all that Oscar-worthy. That being said, it would not surprise me if she won.

I thought that Meryl Streep turned in a very impressive performance in JULIE & JULIA and really immersed herself in the role but as has been pointed out, her numerous wins and nominations may hurt her chances.

I’m still holding out hope that Carey Mulligan will pull an upset but I doubt it.

Hi! Sam Juliano, Dennis, Allan and WitD readers…
To be totally honest…I’am truly undecided when it come to this category…See my comment below that I copied and reposted here…

…Once again, I agree with you, I don’t think that actress Sandra Bullock, have the “win locked in place” neither…
…Because I have overheard some people out there in the blogosphere, predicting that actress Meryl Streep, may take home Oscar@ gold and the reason…Streep, portrayal of French cook Julia Childs, was right “on target” and hit the “bulleye” and you know how much
(H)ollywood like to give the award to actors/actresses, who take on the persona of another person.

Dennis said,”Mulligan got the best notices of any Actress in this category Streep is out, the Academy hates her for so much early success.”
I don’t think that the Academy (of her peers) “hate” her (Streep)…or she would have never taken home those two Oscars@ and placed them on her mantle. (Unless of course, you are privy to some behind the scene information that we aren’t aware of… If so, please share!) ( I’am Smiling!)
Bullock, Streep, Mulligan, Sidibe, Mirren, Bullock, Streep, Mulligan,…
DeeDee ;)

Dee Dee, I must say I do agree with everything you say here. I do believe that Streep has a strong following, and if she doesn’t win it will have more to do with the Academy wanting to honor Bullock than NOT to want to honor Streep.

STREEP IS HATED, END OF STORY. Her last WIN was in 1982 and that was her SECOND Oscar within a three year stretch. Since 82 she’s been nominated over a DOZEN time and has usually lost to younger skin. She has, in that time, taken a slew of CRITICS PRIZES, GLOBES and SAGS-BUT NO OSCARS! The Academy thinks she’s too successful and that success came so early in her career. The Oscars she HAS taken are seen as to be ENOUGH. Streep will NOT win this year and probably won’t win another btill she’s ready to be put out to pasture. Her performance this year is GOOD but not GREAT. Bulloch, most likely (gulp!), will take it.

Helen Mirren is OUT as well. She won this prize four years ago and the Academy isn’t ready to make her a two-timer. The ONLY Actress in this field that has ANY chance to displace Bulloch is CARY MULLIGEN. Along with Streep she took a large portion of critics prizes and won raves for her turn in AN EDUCATION. Her performance it delicate and bold at the same time and announces a talent on the rise. If Bullochs personal popularity wavers for even a second then EXPECT Mulligen to prevail. It ONLY between Bulloch and MULLIGEN.

GABY SADIBE for PRECIOUS is a STUNT nomination. The film received good notices and the Academy feells its story is “IMPORTANT” (slum life, abusive parenting, incest, AIDS, child pregnancy). To honor the film with a slew of nominations and NOT nominate the lead actress is seen as an embarassment by the organization. The Academy also likes to think they’re in the business of making “stars”. Well, unless there are a slew of movies calling for the expertize of a 300 pound black actress, I would think their theory of making a star of Sadibe is a PIPE DREAM. We also need to take in the RACE factor. TO nominate a film with an all black cast for everything and not nominate the lead would be a can of worms the Academy doesn’t wanna open. Also, the film is produced by Oprah Winfrey and her weight in Hollywood is pressing. Sadibe nominated politically not meritoriously. She’s got NO shot!!!!

OK Dennis, I’ll agree with you that Ms. Sadibe was not among the Top Five performances this year (Abbie Cornish, Yolande Moreau, Catalina Saavedra should have been in, and both Charlotte Gainsbourg and Emily Blunt were better picks too) but the Best Picture nomination for PRECIOUS had some clout in the overall picture. I did think Sadibe was quite impressive though, even with my issues with the film.

I would think at this stage that Bullock has solidified her front runner status. The SAG and GG together shows where the votes are and she’s a popular choice. But yes Sam, she didn’t give the best performance by a long shot.

The pictures and the you tube trailer are great touches. Dee Dee deserves the praise she is getting.

Hi! Dennis, Dennis said.”Streep will NOT win this year and probably won’t win another until she’s ready to be put out to pasture. Her performance this year is GOOD but not GREAT.”

Dennis, I respectfully, disagree with you, when it comes to actress Meryl Streep, and how many Oscar@ she can win and when she came win them and why?…because actress Katharine Hepburn, won four Oscars@ at different stages (and ages) in her very long film career…Moo…

…Dennis said,”The Academy thinks she’s too successful and that success came so early in her career. The Oscars she HAS taken are seen as to be ENOUGH.” “STREEP IS HATED, END OF STORY. Her last WIN was in 1982 and that was her SECOND Oscar within a three year stretch. Since 82 she’s been nominated over a DOZEN time and has usually lost to younger skin…”Pardom me…not Pardon me, but how do you know this?!?…that the Academy of her peers thinks that she is too…successful?!? hated?!?

“Bullock, most likely (gulp!), will take it.”
Wow…now if I were actress Sandra Bullock, your response above would send out a sure signal that you are pulling for me (her) to…“win” a real confident builder…

Dennis, I hope that my sarcasm is dutifully noted too…I know, I know, you aren’t “pulling” for her to win this Oscar@ season. But, it seems as if you have resolved or reached the conclusion that she will take home Oscar@ gold.

@ Peter… Peter said,”The pictures and the you tube trailer are great touches. Dee Dee deserves the praise she is getting.”
As Tony D’Ambra, would say…Thank-you kindly, Peter!

@Dennis… Dennis said,”Helen Mirren is OUT as well. She won this prize four years ago and the Academy isn’t ready to make her a two-timer.”
Dennis, Please see my reponse above about Hepburn…

Dennis said,”The ONLY Actress in this field that has ANY chance to displace Bullock is CARY MULLIGAN. Along with Streep she took a large portion of critics prizes and won raves for her turn in AN EDUCATION.”

Dee-Dee… Process of study tells me so. Yopu even listed all of Streeps nominations. She hasn’t won since 1982 and since then she’s been the favorite several times and still hasn’t prevailed. She missed with SILKWOOD one of her bast roles. She lost last year for one of her best performances in DOUBT. And to compare her to Hepburn is moot. Hepburn would win her first in the 1930’s and not sniff another Oscar till 1967. That’s over 30 years. Since 82 Streep has been nominated over a dozen times, many of which she was the front-runner, but still lost. The Academy wants to award OTHER people and they think Streep is too successful. There is no other logical explianation other than they hate her. Streep has the New York Film Critics Prize, The Globe and the SAG for JULIE and JULIA. Technically, that’s a trifecta for an Oscar victory. Yet, Bulloch is the front-runner. Why. They’re TIRED of Meryl Streep.

Dee-Dee…. Mulligen might be a ONE HIT WONDER, but the fact is her performance in AN EDUCATION was heralded as a STAR MAKING TURN. For an actress so young out the gate to heap the praise of just about EVERY film critic writing, and to win a good portion of the critics prizes has put a magnifying glass on this girl. She also WOWed audiences with a supporting turn in BROTHERS and its clear she’s definately being pulled often from the casting couch. She’s the kind of nominee the Academy loves. Young, talented and versatile. If Bullochs popularity wavers for a SECOND you can bet your bottom that Mulligen will take it. They’re the only two actresses that count in this race.

Dennis said,”Since 82 Streep has been nominated over a dozen times, many of which she was the front-runner, but still lost. The Academy wants to award OTHER people and they think Streep is too successful. There is no other logical explianation other than they hate her…
ha!ha!

Hmmm…maybe?!? (as I shrug my shoulders and protrude my bottom lip) but, I don’t think that success, hatred, or age are the only factors that prevent nominated actors and actresses from taking home Oscars@ gold. I’am quite sure that there are other reasons…than an actress or actor being to successful, hated, and age. Ahh! I will let it go at this…as I “throw” up my hands in…resignation!

There’s nothing to resign to DEE DEE. The comparison to STREEP and HEPBURN is moot because Hepburn didn’t Oscar heavily at the start of her career, whereas Streep did. Hepburn was beloved by the Hollywood system. Streep is an individualist that plays by her own rules, she’s an outsider that only comes out of hiding when SHE feels it benefits her. Hollywood likes a team player and Streep, as brilliant as she is, is not a team player. Now, its true, both are considered as two of the best in American cinema history but Streep is seen as an oddity that bolted out of the gate. Hepburn slowly matured and, as seen, Oscared over the course of a long life in different phases of maturity. Streep has already moved into Hepburns second “phase” and has yet to Oscar again. The Academy is making a statement about early success.

DEE-DEE… As for Mulligen, Allan had pointed out that she is very well known in the UK and respected for her television and film work so far. She’s a BREAK OUT in the states as her talent was finally made evident in the US with her performances in BROTHERS and AN EDUCATION. She fits the “mold” of break out Oscar winners who nail the prize for their first real star vehicle (remember Audrey Hepburn in ROMAN HOLIDAY). Also, as much as YOU don’t wanna think age hasa anything to do with it the facts are that 85% of the time the Academy will go with new flesh rather than old. 1987 Streep loses to younger Cher. 1988 to younger Jodie Foster. 1990 to veritble younger new-comer Kathy Bates. 1998 to younger Gwyneth Paltrow. 1999 to younger Hillary Swank. 2002 to younger Catherine Zeta Jones. 2008 to younger Kate Winslet. The evidence is irrefutable. Mulligen is Bullocks ONLY competition.

Now, for my personal opinion. Mirren is always a great jewel to add to the nominations crown. She could read the phone book on screen and I’d nominate her. Sadibe is a stunt nomination and doesn’t have a snow-balls chance in hell. Streep, regardless of her reputation and the few citations she’s won delivers an impeccable IMPERSONATION of Julia Child but even her most fauynting peers think its a lesser performance in her canon. Personally I found the performance and the movie forgettable (her performance in last years DOUBT was far away better and she should have taken the gold). Bullock is a hack who couldn’t fake pleasure in pornography if a gun was held to her head. Her performance SUCKED and her nomination an utter disgrace. Mulligen was bold, funny, sexy and ballsy in this first starring role and will, whether she wins or not, end up with far more film offers than any of the other nominees.

DEE-DEE. Make no mistake, I’m as much a fan. Of Meryl Streep as anyone who takes film vacting seriously. Sam told me you were a great fan of hers and I respect your loyalty. Matter of fact, I think the woman has been robbed of three Oscars since her last win in 1982. In my mind she should have also won the Oscar for SILKWOOD in 1983, for OUT OF AFRICA in 1995 and DOUBT in 2008. But the facts still remain: the Academy is NOT about merit as it is political. Bullock wins this (most likely) because she’s a 20 year veteran, is popular with the average audience member and she know how to woo the voters with easy access to interviews, awards dinners and public appearances. Merit, with Bullock, has NOTHING to do with winning. This is Streeps dilemma. Success early tend to make the Academy think that vits OK to put Meryl to the side.

SAM-in response to your above comment. Yes, Streep has both the NEW YORK and LA prizes. If the Academy went by MERIT, then STREEP and MULLIGEN would be the vonly two duking it out. That Streep is seen as third place at this stage proves that the political aspect of the Oscar process is at work. Bullock is seen as the frontrunner and she has NONE of vthe critics prizes. NONE! I admire Dee-Dee loyalty to Streep, I would love for Meryl to beat Bullock if only to put her in her place. But you and I both know that Streep is considered an also-ran when they have bigger political fish to fry. If they go by merit then they go with a new-comer: CARY MULLIGEN.

Hi! Dennis,DeeDee said,”To be totally honest…I’am truly undecided when it come to this category”…“Period.”

Dennis, I’am neither for or against…any of the nominated actresses in this category. Somehow in our discussion there must have been a misunderstanding…
…Because if you read my previous quote I stated from the beginning that I’am truly undecided when it comes to this
category…Therefore, I’am truly sorry, if there was
a…misunderstanding.

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