"A FOOL and his money are soon parted" (Thomas Tusser - English Farmer/Writer, 1524-1580, who also said "Sweet April Showers do spring May flowers")...

Speaking of Fools (and April), here's how Wall St. works to make the logic of Tusser come true.

It starts with these two guys (shown here paying a visit to their sock puppet sugar daddy rich uncle). They then proceed to play version of 3 card monte [probably with tarot cards]. They bid up equity prices day in and day out, exchanging them between themselves. So as to not look so obvious doing it, they focus on "single digit midgets" (like C, AIG, FNM, FRE), or shares that are hanging around somebody's REPO shelf.

On the first 2-3 days of each month then, a big transfer occurs.

These MoMo's (money managers), appear to the masses to be hard working types, pouring over charts & analysis all month & interested in nothing more that YOU being able to retire in semi-luxury in that retirement McGolf community.

I always wanted to have this guy in my foursome...

Of course it was YOUR money that the MoMo's used for that transaction (the money YOU NEVER saw because it was whisked out of your paycheck, and into your 401k account for the Momo to distribute while he fancied himself being THIS GUY).

Instead, THIS GUY, just made "A million dollars"

Now OTOH, if you're a "trader" of this phenomenon, it's probably just best to wait until all these transactions have taken place, and if you're a market BEAR, that opportunity won't likely come until next Tuesday or so.

Any questions? You could perhaps refer them to Tusser, who also said, "Methesulah lived to be 969 years old. You boys & girls will see more in the next 50 years than Methesulah saw in his whole lifetime"... And Tusser said THAT in the 1500's...

Number of times the words, "may", "probably", or "hopeful" in short article = 11

Excerpt:Rising demand in the U.S. and Asia, combined with the need to restock inventories, is giving a boost to companies from Honeywell International Inc. to Boeing Co. A factory rebound may also help propel employment gains throughout the economy, one reason analysts anticipate a government report tomorrow will show payrolls rose in March by the most in three years.

My recent experience is that I short and then exit at a loss, as everything keeps climbing. Now in such a scenario, I should be sitting out and waiting. The problem is the moment I am out, I start having this feeling that everything will go down without any apparent reason, and, I will be sitting out. Leaves me kind of sick in the gut. Just saying.By the way, Gold trying to catch up with Silver. There has been a disconnect there. Can't figure it out.

Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner said Thursday it's "deeply unfair" that some financial institutions that got taxpayer-paid bailouts are emerging in better shape from the recession than millions of ordinary Americans.

..Well, dumbass, you are one of the main reasons it occured this way...but that is the GS way..

@ Parshant, I know I asked this question before. Who sells LNG(cooking containers) in India? Is it Reliance, GAIL, or someone else? I know there is real shortage of cooking LNG in northern states in India.

Cooking Gas through containers in India is sold, by BPCL, HPCL, maybe IOC too and GAIL also has some set up for supplying Piped gas. Yes, there is a shortage as the prices are administered.As per Reliance, there is still this dispute between the 2 brothers but that would determine the price of Gas for Power generation. I am not sure if RIL has started their gas distribution in South India. It is due to start in the next couple of years but again the pricing is something which is not clear yet.

@ahab: It's a giant I-phone without the phone feature. That's it but if you go on the premise that most people are idiots and sheep and care only about superficial trendy things, it will be hit with our culture.

Goldman lowers its jobs number forecast. Here we go again with lowering the bar and then "beating" handily. What a farce but everyone doesn't mind playing along, so we off we go. They lie to us and we pretend to believe them. It works. For now.

I think the Euro bounce has "had it" here (and will likely get pounded over the weekend - where there is a holiday weekend observed Friday in the US and Monday in Europe)...

They'll still be able to call equities a little higher, maybe, on Monday, but if BUCKY is strong, I think there's a limit to where equities can go for a few weeks (until the Euro settles in around 129)...

Another view that the widely-held "perception" is that the gov't will rescue those who are in the markets...

and can control the economy and said markets. Erroneous view longer term, but it seems that the actions of our gov't have made moral hazard THE only policy choice (people now think they will ALWAYS be bailed out for their actions), so the bubble reflates (which is what the Feds want but what they don't get is that the higher this goes, the worse it will eventually be when it cracks again)....

That's it right there, cv. That's the WHOLE basis for this recent rally and I think the Feds not only are fine with that, they WANT this perception to rule because they know the only possible way out of this is reflation of everything, hence another bubble is DESIRED. They won't say this openly, of course, but they want another bubble thinking they can then "manage" it before it gets too out of control and pops again. That's hubris and arrogance on a grand scale, but what do you expect from this crew? They are "special" and "really smart" after all. They've been told so their whole lives.

@ahab: I think that most people deep down already know it, but again, people are delusional and we're alwasy taught to not be "negative" or a "pessimist" our "you gotta just think positive thoughts" and "good things will happen, so it's been ingrained in us to believe the impossible, in fairy tales, if you will, since about the '80's and the "sunny optimism" of Reagan.

"Canadians not living within their means -CIBC , Toronto Sun". When did this bank become paragon of virtue -invloved with Enron and worldcom scandles? In 2009 meltdown, Cdn banks survived because the govt. took all the risk by backstopping the mortgages through CHMC. They borrow low and make the spread, guaranteed!

In Canada, banks muddle in govt. policies and peoples' financial affairs all the time( no pun intented). Recently, read TD bank telling CB to hold on raising rates, telling govt. to raise taxes to balance budgets. These CEOs get bonuses, is beyond belief. Corruption in broad day light.

Exactly ahab. And that book was a best-seller. I think it's helped create a nation of narcissists and sociopaths. If I WANT it badly enough and do whatever it takes, I'll get it and be entitled to it, and then some. It's I-mine.

Weather just stunning here AGAIN too, Bruce. Weird, wacky weather. Another high 70's summer-esque day. Going to go for Happy Hour at Brit's roofdeck downtown. Nobody appreciates good weather more than the folks in Minny.

On another note, I found HarryWanger. Seems he's over at ZH and has a picture next to his profile.

by HarryWanger on Thu, 04/01/2010 - 10:23#283060

"William Fleckenstein was famously and correctly described as a fraudster in the Sixth Circuit case Moross Limited Partnership vs. Fleckenstein Capital, Inc."

By whom, you?? The jury didn't seem to think so. I hate when people lose money and try to blame someone else. Another frivolous suit that got shot down and the only winners were the attorneys, as usual.

AAR Reports Carloads at Highest Weekly Level Since November '0818 of 19 Commodity Groups Up from 2009 Comparison Week

WASHINGTON, D.C. - April 1, 2010 - Freight traffic on U.S. railroads is continuing to show solid signs of recovery with carload freight volume hitting its highest level since November 2008 during the week ended March 27, 2010, the Association of American Railroads reported today.

U.S. railroads originated 293,114 carloads during the week, up 16.5 percent from the comparable week in 2009, but down 11.6 percent from 2008. This was the highest weekly carload total since the week ended November 29, 2008. In order to offer a complete picture of the progress in rail traffic, AAR now reports 2010 weekly rail traffic with comparison weeks in both 2009 and 2008.

Intermodal traffic totaled 210,914 trailers and containers, up 12 percent from last year but down 5.3 percent compared with 2008. Compared with the same week in 2009, container volume increased 14.4 percent and trailer volume edged up 0.3 percent. Compared with the same week in 2008, container volume was up 2.1 percent while trailer volume fell 32.3 percent.

Total volume for the week was estimated at 31.7 billion ton-miles, up 17.4 percent from last year but down 9.2 percent from 2008.

As expected, the downward movement in the initial claims figure slowed during the week ending March 27. Initial claims declined from 445,000 to 439,000 and met the consensus expectation of around 440,000 claims. Continuing claims fell by only 6,000 to 4.662 mln claimants for the week ending March 20. The drop comes after the data from March 13 were revised up from 4.648 mln claims to 4.668 mln. The consensus estimate called for claims to fall to 4.618 mln.

Key Factors

Even though the market expected the slowdown, the labor sector needs a much steeper decline in order to sustain a falling unemployment level. As it is, the job formation data look abysmal. The lack of a significant decline in continuing claims is troubling considering that the exhaustion rate, the percentage of people whose claims expire before finding a new job, stood at a record high of 54.01% in February. It seems the continuing claims figure has reached a plateau where every person who runs out of claims is replaced by a new initial filer. Labor market problems can also be seen in the nonseasonally adjusted data from the week ending March 13. Continuing claims declined by 48,967 during the week, yet the level of emergency extended benefits rose by 267,012. While a portion of the extended benefit increase can be attributed to a lack of filings from the week ending March 6, the data suggest that finding a new job is extremely difficult.

Frankly, I wouldn't be surprised, deep down, if Rahm Emmanuel actually WANTS (and has "advised as such"), the GOP to take over both houses of Congress come November...

Look, whatever I say, or anybody says, Obama polls best out of any "popularity" configuration...

A GOP takeover in November would amount to the following:

- Nothing changing (again)...- An opportunity to shift BLAME for nothing changing, again, to the GOP (in the run-up to 2012)...

Besides, the MARKETS LOVE IT when there is a split between the Administration & Congress...

- Obama is now talking DRILL DRILL DRILL (which basically means, "here comes Cap&Trade")- He already got his ONE THING passed... HC- The GOP would arrive "just in time" for the DOUBLE part (of the "double dip") to kick in...

In the end, it was all Pelosi, Reid, & Dodd's fault (or whichever GOAT they decide needs to be SCAPED)...

re karen's "you also need a lot of steel and crude oil for war"the thought occurred to me when obama's offshore drilling decision was announced that it could well have been influenced by a new national intelligence estimate regarding security of long-term oil supplies

People knew he had socialistic tendencies when they voted for him. What is of interest to me here about November is that since I think he's put his program together and we weren't in the GD or WWII. So what really interests me is those voters who thought they wanted socialism, now that we have more of it, will they decide they want to vote for him again? Were they really saying Yes to a more controlled socialized state, or were they voting against Bush?

If the Republicans do take control of both houses after November, they won't be able to "force" Obama to do anything, but a least they'll be able to stop him from engaging in any new spending programs and new tax increaes.

*******************************

Regarding drill X 3 and cap/trade, the Republicans would do well to wait until after November to make any agreements with Mr. "O".

1. Sick of Bush (well - basically that's the ENTIRE POPULATION OF THE PLANET - so I'll narrow it down)2. Liked his speeches3. Weren't the types to "check under the hood" for used cars, so were willing to go on faith4. Economically disadvantaged5. Economically ADVANTAGED (two individuals whose fotos appear in this thread come to mind) to the point that they knew he was the perfect "sock puppet"10. Were in a union20. Worked for the media50. Worked for/or were pension recipients of state or federal governments75. Were unemployed#100. Thought he'd (Obama) pay for their gas and mortgage#200. Were the brother of the wife of the POTUS, and are a basketball coach at Oregon State University... Your 14-18 record sucks and was about to get you FIRED, until, by some miracle, a $17 million grant was awarded to your University from the Federal Government... So you kept your job... Even better! Got a juicy new contract!

Well, that is what I mean...you and I, we are just two peas in a very big field. If the US population turns out to like socialism in November, if this wasn't a "one and out" type of playoff, and the Dems like Pelosi are returned, then it may be time for me to rethink the Barbara Streisand ultimatum, at least for BinT.

@cv: I'm in the #1 camp. And, for me, he was a "Hail Mary" of sorts. Needless to say, the pass hasn't been completed up until this point. Real change won't come from a politician from within the system or any one person, or small handful of people. It's grass roots or status quo. That's been hammered home to me now.

I think we've got too many unemployed people not to get a(nother) war going now..

I just checked some earnings of companies that interest me.. jcg, urbn, and lulu.. jcg has managed to exceed 2008 earnings handily in 2010.. i had thot they would steal from saks, neiman's, nordstroms, etc.. but not exceed! urbn similarly stole business from higher end shops.. a&f for example.. both are doing exceptionally lulu is a total surprise, however.

anyway, my point is where are all these jobless people getting the money to keep spending? my own spending is down exponentially..

I stayed up until about 2:45 am, just wasn't tired, watching markets most of the night so I had numbers buzzing over my eyelids when I did finally fall asleep. I dreamt that P3 had begun to take hold, but that somehow, some way, all the stock tickers on my screen were still green, the market price was pointing down, I had put on shorts of individual stocks but all the stocks just kept going up!

I thought it was a nightmare and then I woke up and looked at futures and realized,....it was real life!

JP MORGAN UPGRADES URBAN OUTFITTERS (URBN) TO OVERWEIGHT FROM NEUTRAL- S&P MarketscopeJP MORGAN UPGRADES URBAN OUTFITTERS (URBN) TO OVERWEIGHT FROM NEUTRALAnalyst Brian Tunick tells salesforce he believes URBN has many of the attributes that growth investors in this space look for: differentiated portfolio of brands, double-digit sq. ft growth (both domestically and internationally) and opportunity for operating margins to expand from 17.5% to 20%+ in the next few years. Raises his $37 target price to $44, 22x his $2.00 FY 12 (Jan). EPS estimate, a premium multiple to the group given its differentiated brands and superior growth characteristics./Trombino |US;URBN|21674|US|277749

I'll look it up, DL, but there does tend to be higher obesity, higher teen pregnancy rates, and just lower quality of life in most red states vs. the blue states. Not all of them, for sure, but most of them.

It's a BAD ARGUMENT all around... From a BASIC SURVIVAL standpoint... Red states would fare better because many of the basic resources are aplenty (moreover, the states are populated with individuals who know how to put them to use)...

For example... In a TOTAL ECONOMIC COLLAPSE, who is your friend?

- A Kentucky-an (where the soil is fertile, there are a lot of freshwater streams, coal & livestock are abundant, and people have dirt under their fingernails)

- Or a 'Manhattanite' or 'So-Cal' type (who are surrounded by creeping desert - and might not make it to Idaho before dying of thirst or starvation)

Most of the wealthiest states tend to be "blue" (or a shade of purple), are they not?

Actually - DL, not sure how accurate this is, but this was put out in '04. Take it for what it's worth, but it seems to me the "red" states proportionately benefit more from federal money per capita than most of the "blue" states. I think splitting the country up on those lines would be a bad deal for most of the "red" states, to be honest. The top ten states that receive the least amount of federal dollars back were ALL blue.

If Kentucky's so far advanced, then why are they such a backward state overall? Education is paramount in today's global economy. Gotta have special skills not dirt under the fingernails. May not be "right" but it just is....

I agree with you about the states that don't have easy access to water. We don't have that issue here in the Upper Midwest. And we have an educated populace. Some might say we're taxed too much but then why do so many big corporations want to be based here? There are many reasons but one is an educated populace and workforce and another is a strong, stable community culture. They take the tax trade-off and do well in that trade.

I think that data is very misleading. First, Washington DC is not a state.

Second, five of those states have miniscule populations, i.e., North & South Dakota, Alaska, WV, and Montana. There are probably more people who live in midtown Manhattan than in those states put together.

So I don’t think this says anything at all about red states IN THE AGGREGATE versus blue states IN THE AGGREGATE.

That's fine, DL, but I still think it would be a terrible deal for the traditionally "red" states in the aggregate to go it alone. It would be Mexico part deux. The blue states would get the better end of the bargain, IMO.

I'd have to go back and look, really I should read the whole book again but I think specifically there was a lot about teen pregnancy. Also, I have a client that works here for state of DE that offers me some valuable insight on such things, it seems to have much more to do with race.

@ben: Yeah, me too. I'll have to dust that one off. For some reason, the one segment that I still do remember was the one about abortion and their theory that "Roe v Wade" is actually one of the main causes for the decrease in crime that we've seen in recent decades becuase it kept a lot of unwanted kids from being born and thus turning to crime when they got into their teens. Not saying I agree or disagree but it's an interesting theory to think about.

I'd also just say generally that the political party affilliation seems meaningless anymore. Or at least to me it does. It's all about self serving...so there really is just one party...it's called the ME party.

That was the one thing in the book that is still cyrstal clear in my memory, but such a radical idea so it's to be expected we'd remember it. I don't know if I agree either, but it still made more sense the the other reasons they discuss in the book that were cited as "explanations"

Books like that are why I'm much more on the side of socionomics than I am economics when it comes to forecasting.

Post a Comment

Disclosure/Warning

This blog should not be interpreted as investment advice of any kind.The authors are NOT representing themselves CTAs or CFAs or Investment/Trading Advisor of any kind.The authors may or may not trade in the markets discussed.The authors may hold positions opposite of what may by inferred by this blog.The information contained in this blog is taken from sources the authors believes to be reliable, but it is not guaranteed by the authors as to the accuracy or completeness thereof and is presented here for information purposes only. Commodity trading involves risk and is not for everyone.

Fictional Character Quote of the Day:

I guess it comes down to a simple choice. Get busy living or get busy dying.

- Andy Dufresne

"The Shawshank Redemption"

About this Blog

This Blog's primary focus is on trading based upon technical analysis. It is run by "AmenRa" and "AndyT," quasi-anonymous traders who employ technical analysis to assess market conditions and trading opportunities. AmenRa utilizes 3LB techniques, Moving Averages and Fibonacci sequences. AndyT's analysis relies primarily on "Wave Theory" and Fibonacci sequences. The Comments Section is uncensored and open to the public. Please try and adhere to the "Blogger Policy."