Crimea: Dawn of a new cold war era?

​It may well be true that these sanctions are toothless, and Russia’s reminder to the world of the US and some EU states’ support for a similar “declaration of independence” situation in Kosovo in 2008 is justified.

The situation in Crimea, or the face-off between Russia and Ukraine (supported by the EU and US), has deteriorated so fast that warnings of the re-emergence of a Cold War no longer seem just appropriately sensational headlines.

The situation as of now, roughly, is that Russian President Vladimir Putin has taken legislative steps to absorb Crimea into Russia, after recognising the Crimean "referendum" as a vote of independence from Ukraine. Kiev and the West have responded by rejecting that referendum, while the US and EU have imposed 'sanctions', in the form of travel bans and asset freezes.

It may well be true that these sanctions are toothless, and Russia's reminder to the world of the US and some EU states' support for a similar "declaration of independence" situation in Kosovo in 2008 is justified.

But the big question is whether a spark, a clash somewhere, with military forces being mobilised by Moscow and Kiev, will lead to an armed confrontation. Or whether Putin will be satisfied by effectively taking control of Crimea and seek to aid similar moves in eastern and southern Ukraine, where ethnic Russians resent the nationalist western pro-EU Ukrainian regime in Kiev.

For Russia, that would mean proceeding with its aim of preventing a unified anti-Russia Ukraine within the Nato fold. Or will, as some western leaders advocate, be there tougher "Iran-type" sanctions against Russia in response to all this from the EU and US?

Whatever shape events take, it is clear that forms of diplomacy are any day better than war. But Crimea is also about the Putin regime asserting itself, and keeping pro-western, anti-authoritarian sections at home in Russia at bay. Being seen as the strong man who resurrected Russia, and the person keeping the old "empire" from collapsing, also helps in that effort.