How much do you expect to win?

6th February 2012 / cyril

New to betting? Probably not. However, if you are, make sure you read everything you possibly can, before committing even a single penny of your “hard-earned”.

To the more seasoned punter I would ask, “What is your financial goal?” Some punters will have a goal of making a “killing”.
Others, the more experienced will be hoping to make a regular, if small, return on their stake money.
The big question is, “How much should a punter expect to win, as a percentage of his betting bank?”
What can be considered to be a reasonable profit?

No matter how the punter bets or how large or small his betting bank, he should be able to calculate, within a reasonable range what he expects his return to be, over a specific period. even then, the most experienced will almost certainly over estimate the figure. Even the 2% of successful backers, that experts keep telling us about, will have a hard time getting it right.

Before you embark on a strategy or system or which ever way you make your selections, decide what level of return you expect.
Then, “paper trade” it for a lengthy period of time. Also of immense value at this point, is keeping, an elaborate as you can conceive, record of each and every bet you make. The more detail that goes into your betting records, the more ammunition you’ll have when you start backing in earnest.
When you’ve trialled your selections for a lengthy period, the longer the better, sit down and dissect it, thoroughly.

Strip the meat from the bones. Then compare the returns, cashwise, with your own expected figures. Disappointed? I’m sure you will be. The answer is to repeat the whole episode from start to finish. Sounds like hard work? Well it is.

You’ll need to work very hard if you’re to make money from betting. Remember this phrase. “The harder I work, the luckier I get“. There must be something in it, as it’s been attributed, in slighty varying forms to many of the world’s successful men. Benjamin Franklin, Thomas Jefferson, Samuel Goldwyn and Gary Player.

So what does all this lead up to.
I recently read a piece on the internet that a “certain expert” in sports betting held the opinion that it was foolhardy to expect to make a profit of more than ONE UNIT PER WEEK. Now I’ve heard of being cautious but to me this is a little over the top.

He doesn’t really state clearly what size the unit might be or how many units you should be prepared to stake to make just ONE UNIT PER WEEK.
Looking at making ONE UNIT per week can be time consuming when held within the constraints of backing in units.

Assume you back teams at 1.75 (3/4). Using 100 pts as a UNIT, you would need to back 4 winners every 6 bets. (4 X 1.75 = 300 minus 200 = 100 pts profit or ONE UNIT) Now a strike rate of 66% isn’t beyond most punters but keeping up the price range does make it more difficult. Take a shorter rice and things get a little tighter. Four winners at 1.5 (1/2) and your strike rate has to increase too. To 80%. Working to a UNIT base isn’t for me, nor I’ll wager most punters as it’s much easier to work to a ROI staking regime.

He does eventually get round to mentioning RETURN ON INVESTMENT. Now this is, in my opinion the proper way to gauge the success or otherwise of any strategy or system. Of course the size of return depends on the size of the stake. Although it does all boil down to a percentage figure in the end.
So once more we come back to the big question. HOW MUCH is acceptable considering the outlay? Here it’s down to common sense. Would you settle for 100% return on your stakes? If you’re a realistic bettor you would jump at this figure. In fact in my opinion anything over 10% is acceptable. This figure would apply to almost any form of betting and trading. At least for anyone who is serious about making a profit in the long run.

It doesn’t appear to be much when you write it down on paper. However when you come to the end of a period of betting just add 10% to your total stakes and see how much better it is than what you have left in your betting bank. While 10% is a little conservative, anything over 15% is considered a GIFT by most of the PROFESSIONAL BRIGADE. Everything does of course, rely on a good strike rate at decent odds.

Working to a ROI gives a much bigger leeway were staking is concerned. It’s much easier just halving your normal stake than working in HALF UNITS.
Working out the ROI over any number of bets is fairly straight forward. Calculate your total net winnings. Then divide by your total stakes and multiply by 100. The answer is your percentage.

Net winnings 140. Gross stakes 800. 140 divided by 800 = 0.175. Multiply by 100, = 17.5%. If you can make a return like that
you’ll be well on your way to making a nice little earner.
ROI, gives an accurate state of affairs which can be understood by anyone.
Knowing how to calculate yout profit is one thing. Having the wherewithal to accrue the profits is what is needed.
Winning methods or strategies don’t grow on trees. So your first priority is to find your “GOLDEN GOOSE“. Or should that be “GOLDEN GEESE“. Realistically you will need more than one method to make your betting pay. It’s not unknown for successful gamblers to run anything up to half a dozen methods/strategies at the same time. This allows for one or more to go through that horrible sequence we know as A LOSING RUN. Yes it even happens to the BIG MONEY BOYS.

A losing run is the most disheartening thing in betting. Should you be using just one method, it’s the easiest thing to give up the ghost when things go wrong. running two or more methods means you still have something good going for you and that “give up the ghost” attitude isn’t your first thought.

No matter how many methods you have running at one time it’s necessary to keep all the basic rules of betting in your mind.
Always go back to basics when you have a problem. The answer will be amongst your previous excursions into the betting wilderness.
That is why it’s so necessary to keep good in depth records of all your bets. Future problems will seem minor if you can recall a similar happening in the past. And all the experience you have accrued since that previous happening should help you find a profitable solution.