I was pleased to appear on a newish (but quite brilliant) politics podcast called AufheBungaBunga to discuss the situation in Myanmar. The focus of the discussion was the situation in Rakhine state (recorded days before the latest flare-up in violence) and whatever happened to Aung San Suu Kyi’s liberal credentials. We also had a brief discussion of Charlottesville, based on my piece onThe Current Moment.

I appeared on BBC World TV’s Insight programme to discuss the flight into exile of former Thai prime minister Yingluck Shinawatra. Below is a quasi-summary of some of my points.https://youtu.be/X73Og1nigSQ

What’s the trial about?

Ostensibly, a massive rice subsidy scheme that allegedly cost the state $16bn. Yingluck charged with negligence for ignoring warnings of loopholes and opportunities for corruption. Already forced to pay $1bn to contribute to losses.

But this is also a political trial. Thailand racked by factional conflict for 15 years between an alliance of big business elites and poor workers and farmers, led by the tycoon Thaksin Shinawatra (Yingluck’s brother) and his associates, and an alliance of generals, business elites, middle-class professionals, judges and bureaucrats trying to dismantle the Thaksin machine. The current military regime is trying, yet again, to destroy that machine by destroying Yingluck. They have to do this through military coups and judicial machinations because the Thaksin alliance has won every election since 2001.

Why has she fled?

Presumably she was tipped off that the court was not only going to find her guilty – a foregone conclusion because the judicial system is thoroughly politicised and anti-Shinawatra – but also imprison her. Even if she was found not-guilty, there are 11 more cases pending against her. The generals were determined to get her, one way or the other.

Former commerce minister was just given a 42-year sentence for corruption relating to the rice subsidy scheme.

Where is she?

Sources report she fled to Cambodia, and from there to Dubai (via Singapore) to join Thaksin in exile.

What impact will this have? What will happen next?

Some of Yingluck’s supporters will be disappointed. Others will sympathise because they recognise she could not receive a fair trial.

The junta may feel she has done them a favour by removing a popular figurehead, without them having to imprison Yingluck and make a martyr of her. The prosecution is also part of their attempt to permanently outlaw “populist” policies, and they may feel that it’s a success and will deter politicians in future. The junta may feel more confident and press ahead with further attacks on the Thaksin machine, and finally move towards elections they have been promising for over two years.

However, it’s likely that some other member of the Shinawatra clan will step up to replace Yingluck. She was only the third replacement for Thaksin, following previous machinations to remove two other proxies. Her successor might lack her personal popularity among the poor, but will retain mass support because of what they will represent: a more equal distribution of power and resources in Thai society, against the continued dominance of a narrow Bangkok elite.

I appeared on RT on Friday to discuss Boris Johnson’s comments on Saudi Arabia, the UK’s role in the region’s proxy wars, and the impact of the PM’s repeated slap-downs of the foreign secretary on the coherence of UK foreign policy.