Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets

Thursday, May 18, 2017

The stock market indices had an extreme turn-around day today. The day started out with a plunge at the get-go, the futures going sharply lower based on the Trump news, they had a very brief five or ten-minute bounce, and then came down hard and plunged again. By late morning, the market formed bear wedges after rallying back, but could not sustain, and rolled over hard in the afternoon. Late in the afternoon, they formed bear flags, and went even lower. The indices completed a five-wave decline at the end of the day, finishing sharply lower.

Wednesday, May 17, 2017

At critical times I check the daily against the hourly and 2-hour charts. To my surprise, the Diagonal trendline had drifted lower than it should have. I have corrected it because I had discovered that on the daily chart the SPX gap down had opened beneath the trendline! That suggests that the potential retracements may not go back above trendline resistance near 2390.00.

Wednesday, May 17, 2017

SPX gapped down to 2380.72, beneath the probable Wave [b] low. There is likely to be an attempt to fill the gap, a mighty undertaking at this level. I would rate this morning’s decline as an aggressive sell signal, subject to some blowback. A partial short entry may be advisable.

Wednesday, May 17, 2017

The stock market indices had a mini volatile session as they opened sharply high, came down sharply, held support, rallied sharply midday, pulled back in the afternoon, and closed very sharply on the Nasdaq 100, reaching new all-time highs. Although the S&P 500 was dissimilar in that it made two consecutive lower highs verses the Nasdaq 100 making two higher highs, that was decidedly negative divergence. We’ll see whether or whether not that plays out tomorrow.

Tuesday, May 16, 2017

The Wave structure on the left is a likely scenario on how the SPX may play out. This morning’s decline appears to be Wave c of (iv). Wave (v) may now be underway. As far as Wave relationships go, Wave [c] equals Wave [a] at 2405.86, while Wave (v) equals Wave (i) at 2410.24. Wave 5 equals Wave 1 at 2415.05. Cycle Top resistance on the hourly chart is at 2413.67. That gives us a range in which SPX may reverse course.

Tuesday, May 16, 2017

SPX futures are higher, suggesting the final probe to the top may be underway. At the moment, 2415.05 appears to be a reasonable target. Although May 26-29 appears to be the time target for the Master Cycle low, another important Cyclical anniversary is coming up. June 6, 2017 (2017.43) happens to be exactly 17.2 years from the March 24, 2000 (2000.230) high of 1553.11. Cycles are not always exact. For example, 8.6 years from the March 24, 2000 high was October 29, 2008. The 2008 low occurred on November 21, exactly 17 market days later. We are within 15 market days of the June 6 anniversary, so the top may happen at any time. Can it stretch to June 6? Possibly, yes. However, SPX is very late in the current Master Cycle.

Monday, May 15, 2017

A new high has been made. My best analysis suggests that it is a Wave [c] that is not yet finished. Wave Equality calculations at the minute [] level suggest it may end at 2415.05. At the Minor level, Wave equality may reach as high as 2437.41. The 2-hour Cycle Top is currently at 2412.07, suggesting the lower level may suffice.

Monday, May 15, 2017

So is the Stock Market forming a Double Top? It was not so long ago that I would only see stocks in terms to reverting back towards their highs, after all literally since the birth of the stocks bull market I have been iterating the mantra of "The greater the deviation from the stock market high then the greater the buying opportunity presented" Whilst now it's more a kin to the greater the rally from the last significant low then the greater the probability of sudden reversal. So why am I BEARISH during 2017, when I had been BULLISH for nearly 8 YEARS!

Monday, May 15, 2017

If you are a stock bull, congratulations, you’ve unwittingly bought the market based on abject currency manipulation and nothing else.

Stocks have been propped up via abject manipulation of the $USD/ Yen pair and nothing else. The two are been moving lockstop via one of the greatest market rigs in a history: a 10-day period in which stocks refused to move even 0.2%.

Saturday, May 13, 2017

The SPX started the week at 2399. After a higher open on Monday and Tuesday the SPX made a new all-time high at 2404. It then pulled back to SPX 2382 before ending the week at 2391. For the week, the SPX/DOW lost 0.45% and the NDX/NAZ gained 0.50%. Economic reports for the week were mostly positive. On the downtick: the WLEI and the Q2 GDP estimate. On the uptick: wholesale/business inventories, export/import prices, the CPI/PPI, retail sales, consumer sentiment, plus weekly jobless claims and the budget improved. Next week’s economic highlights include: industrial production, the NY/Philly FED, and housing. Best to your week!

Thursday, May 11, 2017

SPX futures are down, but not enough to give a signal, yet. The SPX may go either way, so be warned of some chaotic moments today.

ZeroHedge reports, “Asian stocks rose lifted by commodity names; European equities trade mostly lower but with little in the way of conviction or firm direction while the Italian banking index is at the highest level in a year following domestic earnings; S&P index futures are modestly in the red after the cash market closed at a record high Wednesday and investors prepared for earnings from retailers; we expect the now general vol selling program to promptly lift the S&P into new all time highs minutes after today's open.”

Thursday, May 11, 2017

The stock market had an interesting day today with the indices down in the morning, up midday, and rallying right to within an hour of the close, but could not get through the highs, and then a sharp sell-off ensured. They did hold secondary support, came back very sharply, and finished near the highs for the day.

Wednesday, May 10, 2017

The SPX futures have been testing yesterday’s low, but no breakdown, yet. I am still treating the peak at 2403.87 as wave [a] of 5. Since it is an (a)-(b)-(c) wave already, it may be complete, but we will not have confirmation until SPX declines beneath the Wave 4 low at 2379.75.

ZeroHedge reports, “Just as the reflation trade appeared to be finding its latest wind, after a modest rise in oil prices over the past 24 hours (now that Andurand has finished liquidating his book) and a halt to the commodity rout in China, Trump threw the markets for a loop again with his firing of James Comey, which has implications on everything from Trump's tax policy (most likely delayed due to more infighting between, and within, the two parties) to US geopolitics (will Trump launch another attack, this time against N. Korea to deflect from this scandal?)”

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