‘Call of Duty’ vs. ‘Battlefield’ shootout may not be strict apples-to-apples

One of the most closely watched rivalry’s this fall is the competition between two popular videogame franchises: Activision Blizzard’s “Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 3” and Electronic Arts’ “Battlefield 3.”

The two rival publishers have done little to dissuade the chatter. Both have touted their respective games – which came out within two weeks of each other – as the best-in-class of the lucrative shooter category.

Electronic Arts’ Battlefield 3

EA had publicly stated on several occasions that it intends to take on Activision “head on,” given the latter’s stronger position in the market. “Call of Duty” is a more established franchise, with “Modern Warfare 3” representing the 8th iteration of the title. The franchise has been the top-selling console game in the videogame industry for the last two years, and MW3 is widely expected to repeat that performance this year.

So far, “Call of Duty” has the edge. Activision said Friday morning that “Modern Warfare 3” sold through to consumers more than 6.5 million units in the U.S. and U.K. in its first 24 hours on the market. “Battlefield 3,” which went on sale on Oct. 25, sold through 5 million units globally in its first week, according to EA.

The market’s reaction to the numbers has been less predictable. Activision shares were down nearly 1% by early Friday afternoon. EA shares were last up about 1.5%. See related story.

Analysts have noted that “Battlefield 3” was never expected to pull in COD-sized numbers. Most believe EA will eventually sell a total of 10-12 million units of “Battlefield 3.” Targets are far more ambitious for Activision, which needs to move more than 25 million units of “Modern Warfare 3” in order to pass up the performance of last year’s “Black Ops.”

There is also the risk of so-called “brand fatigue.” With a new COD game every year – and potentially two coming in 2012 – some analysts believe Activision could face risk if gamers begin to tire of the series.

“The franchise has had an unprecedented run, with sales increasing almost annually since its inception in 2003. However, nothing goes up forever, and the more successful this year’s installment, the more difficult a comparison is set for next year,” Michael Pachter of Wedbush wrote in a report following Activision’s earnings results earlier this week. He added that the company’s new “Elite” online service should help lessen dependence on the sale of disks at retail.

Story Conversation

About The Tell

The Tell is MarketWatch’s fast and engaging look at trends and themes in the day’s markets. Drawing on our reporters, analysts and commentators around the world, as well as selecting the best of the rest online, The Tell is all about the pulse of the markets through news, insight and strategic information to help you make the best investing decisions. Got a tip? Tell us at TheTell@MarketWatch.com