Published by German consulting firm Roland Berger, the report estimates that only six or seven of about 60 worldwide EV lithium-ion battery makers will survive the decade. That includes recent American upstarts like A123Systems and Valence Technologies. The field will literally be decimated.

The Roland Berger findings have been backed up by Lux Research, which claims that global EV battery companies will be able to sell only one-third of their manufacturing capacity by 2015. “We are definitely predicting a li-ion glut coming,” the company told Earth2Tech.

There may be a silver lining, however. As battery companies go belly up, prices for the actual hybrid and electric vehicles themselves are likely to come down. Right now, batteries are the single most expensive components of cars like the Tesla Roadster and Chevy Volt. If overstocked batteries sell for cheap, automakers will be able to increase their profits and lower sticker prices. This trend could even lead to widespread adoption of plug-in cars much sooner than expected....MORE