Some of this is old news but at the same time there is new information . .

Qatar Airways intends to sign deals by September worth 15.6 billion U.S. dollars for 80 Airbus and Boeing wide-body jets, its chief executive said recently. Paris Air Show that it planned to buy a mix of 60 Airbus A350-800 and A350-900 planes and 20 Boeing 777-200LR and 777-300ER aircraft. Qatar, the youngest national carrier in the Gulf Arab region, is due to take delivery of the A350s between 2010 and 2015, while the Boeing planes should arrive between 2007 and 2010.

Experts can say all they want, this is a bubble that just has to burst sometime within the next 10 years. Sure, Dubai attracts lots of tourists and is growing in global importance which is good for Emirates, but what do Qatar and Abu Dhabi offer? Also, seeing as how EK and other are heavily relying on connecting pax, primarily from India, and many Indian Carriers now plan to launch their own longhauls which would make connections in the Emirates obsolete, I seriously doubt all three airlines will be able to continue on like this.

Quoting DAL767400ER (Reply 7):Experts can say all they want, this is a bubble that just has to burst sometime within the next 10 years. Sure, Dubai attracts lots of tourists and is growing in global importance which is good for Emirates, but what do Qatar and Abu Dhabi offer? Also, seeing as how EK and other are heavily relying on connecting pax, primarily from India, and many Indian Carriers now plan to launch their own longhauls which would make connections in the Emirates obsolete, I seriously doubt all three airlines will be able to continue on like this.

Well, you've got to like the Boeing order a little better from a Risk standpoint. Their jets may actually get delivered and paid for before the bubble explodes. I just don't see how 3-4 tiny little countries with airports just miles apart will somehow provide the sustainable growth required to fill 200+ large widebodies on a daily basis. In the words of Alan Greenspan..."[The Emirs] are suffering from irrational exuberance".

While I agree that so much growth in such a small area seems risky, the size of the Emirates is not necessarily as much of a factor as their location, which in turn is less important as a destination than as a through-point. They are well positioned along a well travelled corridor between Australia, Southeast and South Asia, the Middle East and Europe; with ultra long range jets you can also now add the US into that mix. As African traffic takes off, they are there for that too. So many people may choose to fly them to get somewhere else besides Dubai.

As people have remarked here before, just look at Singapore Airlines, at how globally significant they are as an airline compared to how small they are as a country.

Quoting DAL767400ER (Reply 7):Also, seeing as how EK and other are heavily relying on connecting pax, primarily from India, and many Indian Carriers now plan to launch their own longhauls which would make connections in the Emirates obsolete, I seriously doubt all three airlines will be able to continue on like this.

Wrong, they are not primarily dependant on traffic from and to India. Check out their network.
Their expansion into secondary markets is one future key strategy. They connect city pairs such as Glasgow to Peshawar or Birmingham to Perth with only one convenient stop - and that's just two examples.

Quoting Wingman (Reply 11):I just don't see how 3-4 tiny little countries with airports just miles apart will somehow provide the sustainable growth required to fill 200+ large widebodies on a daily basis. In the words of Alan Greenspan..."[The Emirs] are suffering from irrational exuberance".

I don't think the Emirs act irrationally. You can bet they only laugh at anyone who underestimates them in arrogant Western attitude...

Quoting Udo (Reply 13):I don't think the Emirs act irrationally. You can bet they only laugh at anyone who underestimates them in arrogant Western attitude...

Udo,

With all due respect but I think a lot of people just don't want to see the inevitable truth just because it means that a lot of the projected growth both for A and B is based on an airbubble (more so for A than B).
If you go to Dubhai or some of the other Emirates you just have to realize that although growth is certainly a possibility it will be nowhere as big as they (emirs) will like it to be.
That is also exactly the core of the problem; the growth of these airlines is usually the vision of 1 or a couple of the ruling Emirs and as soon as they lose interest or somebody else comes to power with a different vision these trends will abruptly stop.
Just look at Dubhai (Palm islands, 'the world-project",new Amsterdam-like innercity, highest building in the world, longest planned bridge (between UAE and Qatar),... you can't help but wonder and ask yourself...WHY? and who is going to use all this, what will happen if the worlds rich and famous (their target clients) loose interest and they will because that is what they are known for, short attention span.
Also how about political stability in the region, always a very big factor in economic development.

Coming back to the orders, I think it would be a good thing if A and B make contingency plans, just in case, and don't loose too much connection with their other clients.

The A350s presumably are to replace the A330s, right? I dunno if it's just me (and before I say this I'd like to make it clear that I'm not an Airbus or Boeing man, I am a fan of both.), but it seems like the A350 is like a knee-jerk reaction by Airbus to come up with a quick competitor to the 787. Its supposed to replace the A330 as well, but the A330, in my opinion, doesn't need to be updated or replaced. It's not like a 747 Classic or something thats outdated by 15-20 years. I can see airlines flying A330s well into the 2020s. It doesn't seem like its going to sell too well compared to the 787 anyway...

Quoting ArniePie (Reply 15):With all due respect but I think a lot of people just don't want to see the inevitable truth just because it means that a lot of the projected growth both for A and B is based on an airbubble (more so for A than B).

Is it the inevitable truth? I don't think so, it simply depends on your point of view. There's always a chance a plan can go wrong but it would be very stupid to underestimate the Emirs' projects and rely on a chance of "bubble bursting".

Quoting ArniePie (Reply 15):If you go to Dubhai or some of the other Emirates you just have to realize that although growth is certainly a possibility it will be nowhere as big as they (emirs) will like it to be.

No? Then I recommend to read some books or essays about the development of Dubai. It seems they have already achieved more than some of them had ever dreamed of.

Quoting ArniePie (Reply 15):That is also exactly the core of the problem; the growth of these airlines is usually the vision of 1 or a couple of the ruling Emirs and as soon as they lose interest or somebody else comes to power with a different vision these trends will abruptly stop.

Totally wrong in the case of Dubai. Continuity is an important part of their strategy. These people are rich but they are also very wise and well educated. You shouldn't compare them to some spoilt Saudi princes. And I don't think there is major disagreement with the Emir's plans in Dubai.

Why? Have you ever asked McDonald's why they open restaurants in any podunk? The answer is: $$$$$$$$$$$$$$

Quoting ArniePie (Reply 15):and who is going to use all this, what will happen if the worlds rich and famous (their target clients) loose interest and they will because that is what they are known for, short attention span.

They only lose interest if anything better occurs on the horizon. But the chances any other country or region will "outperform" Dubai anytime soon are not really good to say it diplomatically...

Quoting ArniePie (Reply 15):Also how about political stability in the region, always a very big factor in economic development.

The UAE, Qatar or Oman are some of the most stabile countries in the Middle East, so I don't see any serious problems. You need dissatisfaction of the people for political instability and you won't find that there.

Quoting San747 (Reply 16):but it seems like the A350 is like a knee-jerk reaction by Airbus to come up with a quick competitor to the 787.

It seemed to be in the beginning, but Airbus has been working hard to present a tough competitor. They haven't finished yet...

It baffles me how a country the size of Belgium can warrant let alone afford 80 widebody commercial airliners. The next time I hear one of Osama bin Buttwipin's cowards accuse the "West" of not paying for "their" oil I'm going to pop a Camel!

Between this order and the one recently for 45 A380s by Emirates, is it not safe to say that at least at this point in time the market for Persian Gulf tourism is a wee bit flooded?

I'd like see some market analysis from different perspectives - how many more widebodies can it possibly support?

Ever checked how tiny Singapore is in comparison? And that very country is indeed home to the world's largest B777 operator...

How they can afford to buy the aircraft? Hm, they export the stuff which flows out of every gas stations...

Quoting AirRyan (Reply 18):The next time I hear one of Osama bin Buttwipin's cowards accuse the "West" of not paying for "their" oil I'm going to pop a Camel!

Well, it was just a matter of time until someone throws in "Osama". Great.

Quoting AirRyan (Reply 18):Between this order and the one recently for 45 A380s by Emirates, is it not safe to say that at least at this point in time the market for Persian Gulf tourism is a wee bit flooded?

Quoting AirRyan (Reply 18):Between this order and the one recently for 45 A380s by Emirates, is it not safe to say that at least at this point in time the market for Persian Gulf tourism is a wee bit floode

By the time Qatar and EK are done recieving each and every new aircraft it will be sometime around 2015--10 years from now,
so no point in looking at the market being flooded now, but only how to improve upon on it and maintain or increase tourisim in their respective countries/cities.

and if you read the various posts on the thread , they are well on the right track by developing and creating new world class projects day in and day out.

This is good news for aviation all around. Certainly the legacy/state carriers of Europe and Asia will be liberal with nth freedom rights and welcome the additional resources to help carry their citizens about. Furthermore, the emergence of the Gulf states as the world's premiere holiday and shopping destination will be a breath of fresh air for all the former travelers to places like Las Vegas and London. Who wants all that taxed retail and usury anyway, and who really needs boobies, gambling, whores and booze? Sand and really good air-conditioning could be the wave of the future.

Quoting Udo (Reply 17):Is it the inevitable truth? I don't think so, it simply depends on your point of view. There's always a chance a plan can go wrong but it would be very stupid to underestimate the Emirs' projects and rely on a chance of "bubble bursting".

I guess you are right in saying that nothing is inevitable but you shouldn't overestimate them either.

Quoting Udo (Reply 17):No? Then I recommend to read some books or essays about the development of Dubai. It seems they have already achieved more than some of them had ever dreamed of.

Well I am well enough informed that, as I said ,there is indeed potential for growth, but I also know from first hand experience that they are playing some high risk games from time to time.

Quoting Udo (Reply 17):Totally wrong in the case of Dubai. Continuity is an important part of their strategy. These people are rich but they are also very wise and well educated. You shouldn't compare them to some spoilt Saudi princes

Uh, continuity is a part in all economic formula's (even those that do not work) but they certainly are not ALL wise and well educated.
That is a problem in country's that have a class (a family) of people that continuously take the end decisions, their position is nearly never based on merit but on relationships but they still can make the policy's.

A good example is the way their armed forces often work: If you talk to military "advisors" stationed in these country's they will almost always say that even when they have the best equipment they pretty much suck in military tasks, it's nothing more than a playing club for the princes.

It says a lot about the political (and economical) structure of these country's.

Quoting Udo (Reply 17):Why? Have you ever asked McDonald's why they open restaurants in any podunk? The answer is: $$$$$$$$$$$$$$

Yes but every McD's is not automatically a success, some of them fail as well you know.

Quoting Udo (Reply 17):They only lose interest if anything better occurs on the horizon. But the chances any other country or region will "outperform" Dubai anytime soon are not really good to say it diplomatically...

Same was said about a lot of the Caribbean places not to long ago and the schwung certainly went out of those also.

You know what a new trend will be :Cape Verde (spelling?) ,they are starting to plan for the new "place to be" for the rich and the famous as we speak and after that, who knows?

Quoting Udo (Reply 17):The UAE, Qatar or Oman are some of the most stabile countries in the Middle East

It's not UAE ,QATAR or Oman you should be worried about but some of their close neighbors that could pose a problem and that is just as bad.

Quoting Udo (Reply 17):It seemed to be in the beginning, but Airbus has been working hard to present a tough competitor. They haven't finished yet...

Quoting Udo (Reply 19):Quoting AirRyan (Reply 18):
The next time I hear one of Osama bin Buttwipin's cowards accuse the "West" of not paying for "their" oil I'm going to pop a Camel!

Well, it was just a matter of time until someone throws in "Osama". Great.

Its just you Udo who seems to have a problem fighting terrorists so I can assure you that every time I speak of anything that has to do with oil I'll throw in the standard "Damn the terrorist" bites. It's one thing if you don't want to help fight the war on terror but then have the audacity to criticise those that do, stop being such a self-righteous coward. The "terrorists" have forever throughly screwed up the commerical aviation industry we all on this thread are so adamently interested in you seem to have a problem when I vent steam at the terrorists who not only severely hurt our industry but would just as well cut our heads off and broadcast them across Al Jazeer - what's your angle?

Quoting Udo (Reply 19):Quoting AirRyan (Reply 18):
Between this order and the one recently for 45 A380s by Emirates, is it not safe to say that at least at this point in time the market for Persian Gulf tourism is a wee bit flooded?

No.

Oh sure, I'll just take your word on that based upon your credibility. Care to offer any tangible analysis with your elaborate explanations?

Quoting Karan69 (Reply 20):so no point in looking at the market being flooded now, but only how to improve upon on it and maintain or increase tourisim in their respective countries/cities.

and if you read the various posts on the thread , they are well on the right track by developing and creating new world class projects day in and day out.

But is this based upon an expected rise in population of the Persian Gulf as well or are these expected estimates based off sole business analysis of increased tourist revenues? Somehow I don't see the region inside these countries at least growing too much larger and I still am waiting to see what sorts of business outside of tourism the UAE and Qatar are proposing. Orlando's KMCO is a big aiport reflective of it's tourism but even they don't qutie have the traffic that these current projections have going into the Persian Gulf ten years from now.

I agree, I love to see the Boeing widebody orders but in the longrun they aren't worth anything if they never manifest or are shortly sold back to Boeing because they mis-calculated their projections. I'm looking but I'm not finding too many other businesses in the region other than in oil or tourism.

Quoting ArniePie (Reply 22):I guess you are right in saying that nothing is inevitable but you shouldn't overestimate them either.

That won't happen.

Quoting ArniePie (Reply 22):Uh, continuity is a part in all economic formula's (even those that do not work) but they certainly are not ALL wise and well educated.

The decision makers certainly are.

Quoting ArniePie (Reply 22):That is a problem in country's that have a class (a family) of people that continuously take the end decisions, their position is nearly never based on merit but on relationships but they still can make the policy's.

Sure, they don't have democratic structures, but does that automatically mean anything bad for the country's economic development? It hasn't so far.

Quoting ArniePie (Reply 22):A good example is the way their armed forces often work: If you talk to military "advisors" stationed in these country's they will almost always say that even when they have the best equipment they pretty much suck in military tasks, it's nothing more than a playing club for the princes.

It says a lot about the political (and economical) structure of these country's.

I can't comment on their military but the economic development has been a total success.

Quoting ArniePie (Reply 22):Yes but every McD's is not automatically a success, some of them fail as well you know.

Sure, but the aim is always $$$.

Quoting ArniePie (Reply 22):Same was said about a lot of the Caribbean places not to long ago and the schwung certainly went out of those also.

You know what a new trend will be :Cape Verde (spelling?) ,they are starting to plan for the new "place to be" for the rich and the famous as we speak and after that, who knows?

The Caribbean places lacked exactly of that continuity I mentioned earlier. And the Cape Verde Islands? I doubt they would be able to compete seriously. They don't have the cash to build up an infrastructure comparable to Dubai. And air links are not really encouraging.

Quoting ArniePie (Reply 22):It's not UAE ,QATAR or Oman you should be worried about but some of their close neighbors that could pose a problem and that is just as bad.

The big bang in Saudi-Arabia? If anything serious happens in Saudi-Arabia then the whole world would find itself in a dangerous oil crisis and economic downturn very soon. Or do you mean Iran? I don't think even the worst mullahs would plan invasions in neigboring countries.

Quoting Udo (Reply 24):If anything serious happens in Saudi-Arabia then the whole world would find itself in a dangerous oil crisis and economic downturn very soon

Part of the reason for such a rampant displeasure of the West (yes, Osama was from Saudi Arabia) is that only the Royal House of Saud gets the revenues from the oil. Arabia would be much better off if the oil revenues were distributed for all of the Arabian society to benefit from, and not just the "Royal" family.

Quoting Udo (Reply 24): Or do you mean Iran? I don't think even the worst mullahs would plan invasions in neigboring countries.

Same thing there - the people of Iran want a change in government but thus far have not been able to get it. The Iranian people want nothing more than to dictate and represent themselves in the world market and having former terrorists as their leaders is just not getting it done.

Quoting AirRyan (Reply 23):Its just you Udo who seems to have a problem fighting terrorists so I can assure you that every time I speak of anything that has to do with oil I'll throw in the standard "Damn the terrorist" bites.

What a crappy and ridiculous statement. Where have I ever said I have a problem with fighting terrorism? Don't put things in my mouth.

And where's the relation between oil and terrorists? Are the UAE a country of terrorists just because they export a lot of it? Does Osama own and sell oil?
By throwing in "standard bites" as you call it you just fool yourself on that board.

Quoting AirRyan (Reply 23):It's one thing if you don't want to help fight the war on terror but then have the audacity to criticise those that do, stop being such a self-righteous coward.

Get over it. I'm tired of hearing that trash. Check out some threads in non-av and you will soon find out what's my opinion on the (real) war of terror.

Btw, calling me names just shows your inability to discuss in a civilized manner. I could press the "suggest deletion" button for that insult, but I won't. Because I find it amusing how you lose credibility and respect on that forum with your uneducated behavior...

Quoting AirRyan (Reply 23):The "terrorists" have forever throughly screwed up the commerical aviation industry we all on this thread are so adamently interested in

Forever? Wow, Osama would be happy hearing how desperate you sound...

Quoting AirRyan (Reply 23):you seem to have a problem when I vent steam at the terrorists who not only severely hurt our industry but would just as well cut our heads off and broadcast them across Al Jazeer - what's your angle?

My angle is this discussion shouldn't be about terrorists but about Gulf carriers. You screwed the thread up by going off-topic. Congrats for that.

Quoting AirRyan (Reply 23):Oh sure, I'll just take your word on that based upon your credibility. Care to offer any tangible analysis with your elaborate explanations?

No. First of all, re-read this thread. Second, use the search option and you'll find endless topics where I talked about the Gulf carriers' future prospects.

Quoting AirRyan (Reply 23):Somehow I don't see the region inside these countries at least growing too much larger and I still am waiting to see what sorts of business outside of tourism the UAE and Qatar are proposing.

Quoting AirRyan (Reply 23):I'm looking but I'm not finding too many other businesses in the region other than in oil or tourism.

Quoting Udo (Reply 24):Sure, they don't have democratic structures, but does that automatically mean anything bad for the country's economic development? It hasn't so far.

It has indeed nothing to do with democracy (just look at Singapore) but it has all the more to do with how you place people in charge of economic projects.
Who is the boss and why is he the boss, is it because he is a prince or 1 of its relatives or is it because he was the top of the class?
This still is a problem throughout the Arabian peninsula but it isn't so much in Singapore.

Quoting Udo (Reply 24):I can't comment on their military but the economic development has been a total success

Largerly still because of fossil fuel mining (between 30 and 40% of the GDP up until now) and the way prices are going now (oil at ++60$/barrel) they are certainly cashing in.
Remains to be proven that what they are doing now is going to pay of in the long run.

You see that's why you can't compare Singapore with UAE,QATAR,OMAN,Q8,...
Singapore is rich because it benefited from its strategic location and they saw that the best way to set the future is to invest in its people (education, training, skilled jobs,research,...) and all that leads to the fact that now they have a knowledge based, industrial based,transport based ,service based,... and so on multi-faceted economy that can deal with a crisis in one of its pillars.
The Arabian country's however have only a realistic income from 2 or at best3
pillars (oil&gas/tourism/transport) and spend the bulk off their money on nonsensical megalomaniac things.
You don't see the worlds biggest airport or tallest building or any other kind of prestige project in Singapore ,only when there is a use for it you will see these things.
That's why Singapore is in the top of the class when you look at education levels and the Arab country's are no model students.
It's all about the law of the big numbers: If you have a lot of people to choose from with good training and education and you place them on the right spots you are more likely to get a good result.
If you however always fish from a small pond then chances are small you'll catch a good big fish.

Quoting Udo (Reply 24):The Caribbean places lacked exactly of that continuity I mentioned earlier. And the Cape Verde Islands? I doubt they would be able to compete seriously. They don't have the cash to build up an infrastructure comparable to Dubai. And air links are not really encouraging

You shouldn't take my comment about Cape Verde literally, I just took it as a real example to show that the rich community always finds something new to do.

Quoting Udo (Reply 24):The big bang in Saudi-Arabia? If anything serious happens in Saudi-Arabia then the whole world would find itself in a dangerous oil crisis and economic downturn very soon. Or do you mean Iran? I don't think even the worst mullahs would plan invasions in neigboring countries

You don't need a fullscale war to have political instability.
The region IS one of the or maybe even the most unstable place in the world.

PSLets just hope they have an enlightened ruler long enough to make the best of it and choose the right pad (Like they had in Singapore) but up until now it doesn't look very promising.

Quoting ArniePie (Reply 27):Who is the boss and why is he the boss, is it because he is a prince or 1 of its relatives or is it because he was the top of the class?
This still is a problem throughout the Arabian peninsula but it isn't so much in Singapore.

As I said earlier, the structures in the UAE haven't hurt the business success yet...

Quoting ArniePie (Reply 27):Singapore is rich because it benefited from its strategic location and they saw that the best way to set the future is to invest in its people (education, training, skilled jobs,research,...) and all that leads to the fact that now they have a knowledge based, industrial based,transport based ,service based,... and so on multi-faceted economy that can deal with a crisis in one of its pillars.

Sounds like a description of what has been happening in Dubai for many years...

Quoting ArniePie (Reply 27):The Arabian country's however have only a realistic income from 2 or at best3
pillars (oil&gas/tourism/transport) and spend the bulk off their money on nonsensical megalomaniac things.
You don't see the worlds biggest airport or tallest building or any other kind of prestige project in Singapore ,only when there is a use for it you will see these things.

Well, I can only kindly ask you to have a look at the links I provided for AirRyan. You can find very interesting facts about business in the UAE.

Quoting ArniePie (Reply 27):The region IS one of the or maybe even the most unstable place in the world.

But the major terror attacks have happened elsewhere...not a single one in the UAE yet. It depends on what you consider as "the region".

Quoting ArniePie (Reply 27):Lets just hope they have an enlightened ruler long enough to make the best of it and choose the right pad (Like they had in Singapore) but up until now it doesn't look very promising.

Quoting Udo (Reply 29):As I said earlier, the structures in the UAE haven't hurt the business success yet...

There is no real business succes apart from oil and gas

quote from one of your sites:
Buoyed by growing industrial investment, the manufacturing sector accounts for 15.1 per cent of the UAE's GDP, the second largest contributor after the mining (crude oil and natural gas) sector.They make it as if 15.1% is much but it really isn't.

No, but I did as a point of reference (similar in population and expectations).

Quoting Udo (Reply 29):Sounds like a description of what has been happening in Dubai for many years...

They mainly invest in nonsensical infrastructure iso people resources, just check the links you posted yourself.

Quoting Udo (Reply 29):Well, I can only kindly ask you to have a look at the links I provided for AirRyan. You can find very interesting facts about business in the UAE.

I did and I learned little new things.
I even did better and up until 2004 I worked on a very regular basis with these country's and it only convinced me more that maybe they where not always going in the right direction.

Just a test and name 3 brands of valuable consumer goods, services or other products that originate from that region.
Now try the same for Singapore, Hong Kong, Taiwan and other young industrialized capitalist country's.

Quoting Udo (Reply 29):But the major terror attacks have happened elsewhere...not a single one in the UAE yet. It depends on what you consider as "the region".

Lets not make it too big and just take the Arabian peninsula.
You'll have to admit that "the region" is more than the area between your own border.

You want more proof?
Visit some of the Emirates and don't visit the architectural marvels but go and look at the Harbor, industrial estates, check out how many top brands actually produce goods or have their mainHQ over there.

Quoting Udo (Reply 13):I don't think the Emirs act irrationally. You can bet they only laugh at anyone who underestimates them in arrogant Western attitude..

More of a reality based Western Attitude. The bases for these airlines is akin to being on top of an active volcano. It would take very little to destabilize the entire region. By design, or accident. The less Boeing deals with these operators the better. Nice small orders with quick payment and delivery. Nothing more.

Hold on a sec here. Emirates, Qatar, and all the other 'nutters' aren't just sitting on a business plan to the UAE. Emirates have a suprising number of services out of Heathrow to Australasia, with a stop in Dubai or wherever, where business is very good, and profitable. They charge high, get 80-100% load factor, and make a profit, all they are doing here is maximising the potential profit that they can get here. What i see next is what AI have done, with a LHR-JFK, and Chicago, after a flight from the UAE. Thats the ticket.
Alex

Again, obviously they are expanding their long haul fleet, and reworking their strategy. With all that oil money, they can't go wrong right now, but once its gone, they are going to hit the ground, and be woken up loudly, and unpleasently
Alex

The only way I see them turning a profit on these large aircraft purchasing deals is when they decide to go in business as a leasing company and speculate on the world wide need for a large portion of these widebody's.

Australasia maybe a good market but 200 widebody's more is just not realistic considering there are also a lot of other viable alternatives.
Let's see Cairo, Beirut, Bangkok,Hong Kong, Singapore, Kuala Lumpur, Jakarta,Indian city's,whatever more they also want there portion of the cake and I am not taking into account the carriers based in Europe's main ports and Australasia.

Among other things Emirates benefits from cheap third world labor. They have advantage of low or no taxes. They can very well compete with Western carriers on cost and service level, as they do not have the overheads amd burden other countries have to provide. Add to this the fuel cost advantage of refueling in the Middle East. As I see it there will be fierce competition beween the Emirate carriers and the Western carriers and the latter will most likely lose their market share. Also a point to mention, Dubai and other Gulf people have been trading internationally for thousands of years, they are shrewd businessmen and deserve not to be underestimated.

Quoting Udo (Reply 28):"Arabia"? Who exactly? Don't mix up Saudi-Arabia with the UAE or Qatar. The societies in the UAE and Qatar do benefit from the oil revenues, in contrast to the majority of Saudis.

I see your point. I like to discount the "Royal" famil of "Saudi" Arabia and refer to boundaries of Saudi Arabia as just Arabia. I think Pimp Saud messed up that whole land when he helped start the "Royal" family by leaving out the majority of the people, IMO.

Quoting Udo (Reply 28):Quoting AirRyan (Reply 25):
Same thing there - the people of Iran want a change in government but thus far have not been able to get it.

So what? Invasion? They have to do it themselves.

No, not even Bush 43 is that trigger-happy! All they need is support - some political and some financial.

Quoting Udo (Reply 28):Quoting AirRyan (Reply 25):
Oh, and buy more 777 and A380's - it does an economy good!

And the point of that comment is...?

I don't know, to try and keep the aviation aspect of discussion relevant!

Quoting Udo (Reply 26):What a crappy and ridiculous statement. Where have I ever said I have a problem with fighting terrorism? Don't put things in my mouth.

Than stop whininig about me chastizing the terrorists when they have singlehandidly negatively adversed the commerical aviation industry as well as the price of oil so much!

That's one of single motivating aspects of the Islamic-fundamentalists! They want the West out of their land but it is through their dependance on oil that is the whole reason they are there in the first place! I believe it was Osama Bin Laden's lieutenant Ayman al-Zawahri who just said in his last video that the West will be punished for "not paying for their oil." Check out the price of oil going up specifically just because of the latest attack on US warships in Jordan:

Quoting Udo (Reply 26):Quoting AirRyan (Reply 23):
The "terrorists" have forever throughly screwed up the commerical aviation industry we all on this thread are so adamently interested in

Forever? Wow, Osama would be happy hearing how desperate you sound...

Quoting Udo (Reply 26):Quoting AirRyan (Reply 23):
It's one thing if you don't want to help fight the war on terror but then have the audacity to criticise those that do, stop being such a self-righteous coward.

Get over it. I'm tired of hearing that trash. Check out some threads in non-av and you will soon find out what's my opinion on the (real) war of terror.

No, those are just adjectives to descrbe your myopic pacifist ideologies that stems from our last thread on the subject.

Quoting Udo (Reply 26):Quoting AirRyan (Reply 23):
you seem to have a problem when I vent steam at the terrorists who not only severely hurt our industry but would just as well cut our heads off and broadcast them across Al Jazeer - what's your angle?

My angle is this discussion shouldn't be about terrorists but about Gulf carriers. You screwed the thread up by going off-topic. Congrats for that.

Stop being so anal - if your going to talk about the current status and projection of the economics of the Persian Gulf don't blame me for talking about oil and the terrorists.

Quoting Udo (Reply 28):Quoting AirRyan (Reply 25):
The Iranian people want nothing more than to dictate and represent themselves in the world market and having former terrorists as their leaders is just not getting it done.

Former terrorists? Ah, the "I recognized him"-evidence, I see...

Regardless as to Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's past and whatever perspective you may regard him in, considering that the Shah Ayatollah Khomeini wrote the book on terrorism and is the one really calling the shots in Iran, I stand confident in my statement.

Quote: "You could make him a blond and shave his whiskers, put him in a zoot suit and I'd still spot him"
Former US hostage Chuck Scott

Quoting Udo (Reply 26):Quoting AirRyan (Reply 23):
Oh sure, I'll just take your word on that based upon your credibility. Care to offer any tangible analysis with your elaborate explanations?

No. First of all, re-read this thread. Second, use the search option and you'll find endless topics where I talked about the Gulf carriers' future prospects.

The commercial aviation industry in the Persian Gulf is what you speak of?! Thta's self-evident - but what makes you Udo think other than the oil and tourism industry will be able to support that commerical aviation industry - in the Persian Gulf region?

Quoting Neverest (Reply 38):Add to this the fuel cost advantage of refueling in the Middle East.

Considering what one member posted a few days ago, that jet fuel was cheaper in Frankfurt than in Dubai during some weeks/months this year, I don't really see much of an advantage there... I'll see if I can locate that comment again...

Quoting DAL767400ER (Reply 7):Experts can say all they want, this is a bubble that just has to burst sometime within the next 10 years.

I believe that's what the exactly what the experts are saying. Good call

In this case, Emirates marketed themselves smartly, and Dubai is a destination in itself. Dubai (Emirates) may have some reality to it, but Doha (Qatar) and Etihad (Abu Dhabi)? Me thinks there may be a way to pickup some widebodies on the cheap in a few years...

MEA's CEO, Mohammed El-Hout has always been one of the strongest and most outspoken critics of these gulf airlines in the Middle East.

In July, he was quoted on one-on-one interview about this issue:

The carrier’s strategy therefore contrasts sharply with the global ambitions of many Gulf-based airlines, for instance, and despite Beirut’s strong geographical position, MEA is not going to target this kind of traffic. “We do not have any plans to be a sixth freedom carrier due to many reasons. One of them is that you have a lot of carriers in the area that are expanding in this way,” says El-Hout. “Indeed, I think you will see not just competition between these carriers, but a price war. In a small area like the Middle East and the Gulf, you cannot have four major hubs none of which are based on real traffic to that point.”http://www.itp.net/business/features/details.php?id=2905

Powerful statements...

Regards

"Generosity is giving more than you can, and pride is taking less than you need." - Khalil Gibran

This is what I don't understand. Boeing has positioned the 787 to enable more carriers to fly more nonstops to more markets more efficiently. Airbus has responded with the A350 for similar missions. Carriers like Emirates, Etihad, Gulf Air and Qatar Airways make the bulk of the revenue on sixth freedom traffic. As carriers purchase 787s and A350s, there will eventually be far more direct routes to far more city pairs than currently exist. Won't this eventually take a significant bite out of the gulf carriers' business model?

Udo, I don't seem to be rude, so if I am, i apologize, but you seem in all of the threads concerning the Middle East to have a sort-of blind faith in the power of the region...Why is this?

In addition you DID compare Singapore to Emirites and Qatar.

Quoting Udo (Reply 19):Quoting AirRyan (Reply 18):It baffles me how a country the size of Belgium can warrant let alone afford 80 widebody commercial airliners.
Ever checked how tiny Singapore is in comparison? And that very country is indeed home to the world's largest B777 operator...

If that is not a comparison I dont know what is.

EVERY region can face a downfall, including the Middle East. They are playing a VERY dangerous game which may come back to haunt them, because not only are they placing HUGE wide-body orders, they are also trying to operate both types......it makes NO sense.

It's easy to forget that Emirates not all that long ago was a regional airline with only A300s and A310s. Now they are a major and serious competitor to many of the great airlines from Europe and Asia and have a seemingly insatiable appetite for wide body jets. If you had told most people that 10-15 years ago they would have probably thought you crazy.

Qatar Airways seems to have similar ambitions. Yeah, it's hard to see how they will pull it off given Emirates' large presence as well as that of other good airlines in the region. I wouldn't underestimate them, though.