Ladbrokes’ Head of Politics Trading, Matthew Shaddick, provides the inside take on the latest Politics news.

A lot of the speculation on “The Most Unpredictable Election Ever” has focused on what happens with the SNP, Greens and UKIP. Their impact will certainly be significant, but the key to the election now probably hinges on a couple of dozen Labour/Tory marginals, mostly in small town England

There are 34 seats that the Tories gained from Labour in 2010, in which Labour are currently favourites to regain. If the Tories can’t win a chunk of these on May 7th, Cameron will probably be leaving Downing Street.

Seat

Maj% 2010

Lab Odds

Con Odds

Hendon

0.2

1.22

3.75

Cardiff North

0.4

1.22

3.75

Brentford and Isleworth

3.6

1.28

3.5

Wolverhampton South West

1.7

1.28

3.75

Sherwood

0.4

1.28

3.75

Weaver Vale

2.3

1.3

3.5

Corby

3.5

1.28

3.75

Lancaster and Fleetwood

0.8

1.33

3.5

Warwickshire North

0.1

1.33

3.5

Plymouth Sutton and Devonport

2.6

1.36

3.5

Waveney

1.5

1.36

3.75

Warrington South

2.8

1.4

2.875

Broxtowe

0.7

1.4

3

Hove

3.8

1.44

3

Amber Valley

1.2

1.44

3.25

Bedford

3

1.44

2.75

Hastings and Rye

4

1.44

3

Lincoln

2.3

1.44

2.75

Carlisle

2

1.5

2.625

Dewsbury

2.8

1.5

2.625

Bury North

5

1.53

2.5

Erewash

5.3

1.57

2.75

Stroud

2.2

1.53

2.5

Croydon Central

6

1.57

2.25

Morecambe and Lunesdale

2

1.57

2.375

Brighton Kemptown

3.1

1.61

2.25

Ealing Central and Acton

7.9

1.67

2.1

Nuneaton

4.6

1.67

2.25

Halesowen and Rowley Regis

4.6

1.72

2.375

Chester, City of

5.5

1.72

2

Stockton South

0.7

1.72

2.1

Pudsey

3.4

1.72

2

Keighley

6.2

1.73

2.1

Ipswich

4.4

1.72

2

It’s a bit of an anomaly that the Tories have become fairly strong favourites in the overall most seats market, but remain outsiders in a number of constituencies that they’ll almost certainly have to win in order to come out as the biggest party, never mind get anywhere near a majority.

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Matthew Shaddick has been Head of Poliical Betting at Ladbrokes since 2008. He's a writer and odds-maker with particular expertise in UK and US elections.
Also known to dabble in music, literary and other out of the way betting markets. Sometimes issues tips on horse racing and football, which are best ignored.

Ladbrokes Betting & Gaming Ltd. is licensed (licence no. 1611) and regulated by the British Gambling Commission for persons gambling in Great Britain and LC International Limited, Suites 6-8, 5th Floor, Europort, Gibraltar, is licensed (RGL Nos. 010, 012) by the Government of Gibraltar and regulated by the Gibraltar Gambling Commissioner.