Cut electricity emissions by 52-70pc, CSIRO tells government

CSIRO's Low Emissions Technology Roadmap says much deeper emissions cuts than the pro rata Paris target are needed from electricity generation because similar emissions cuts are harder to achieve in other sectors.
Paul Jones

CSIRO advised the Turnbull government a year ago that the electricity sector would need to cut its carbon emissions by 52 to 70 per cent by 2030 for the economy as a whole to hit the 26 to 28 per cent emissions reduction target the government pledged to meet under the Paris climate agreement.

Labor is demanding an easier route to a steeper emissions target in lieu of a tougher initial target ahead of Friday's Council of Australian Governments leaders' meeting, at which the government may, at best, get a conditional go-ahead for the NEG – which economist Danny Price says will do nothing to reduce emissions under current settings.

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Agriculture off limits

CSIRO's Roadmap says much deeper emissions cuts than the pro rata target are needed and are able to be achieved at moderate cost from electricity generation. This is because renewable energy costs are plummeting and similar emissions cuts in transport, industry, buildings and fugitive emissions in coal and oil and gas extraction are harder and much more costly to achieve.

The government didn't publish the terms of reference for the Roadmap but it asked the science agency to map sector by sector emissions cuts required to achieve the Paris target across the energy sector. Broadly defined, this includes electricity, land transport, direct combustion and heating and cooling in industry and buildings, and fugitive emissions in coal, oil and gas extraction.

Agriculture – 14 per cent of national emissions and of totemic sensitivity to the Nationals – was off limits.

Some technologies to reduce carbon emissions in heavy industry are not widely used or available at competitive prices in Australia, CSIRO's Low Emisisons Technology Roadmap says
James Alcock/Fairfax Media

The range of 52 to 72 per cent reflects different scenarios under which energy efficiency plays a larger or smaller role. The rate of emissions cuts in electricity is determined by the pace of adoption of renewable energy such as wind and solar power, and battery and pumped hydro storage, with less required the more energy efficiency is adopted across industry.

The broad message of the Roadmap is that the nation will not meet its initial Paris target without a much bigger effort from the electricity sector.

Technologies not widely used here

Accelerated adoption of energy efficiency technology could yield 35 million tonnes of additional abatement on top of business as usual (which already includes a 40 per cent improvement in energy productivity) – or just over a fifth of the required 164 million tonnes of abatement across all energy.

One problem is that many of these technologies – high-efficiency boilers, heat pumps and ambient waste and heat utilisation – are "not widely implemented or available at a competitive price in Australia". The Roadmap counts only 13 million tonnes of abatement to 2030 from the 100 million tonnes of CO2 produced by direct combustion in industry and buildings.

Road transport can reduce emissions more slowly with the adoption of more efficient vehicles, and eventually electric vehicles. . But barriers to adoption include high costs of fleet replacement and limitations on heavy trucks' use of batteries. As a result, emission cuts of just 10 million tonnes from current levels (80 million tonnes) are counted in the Roadmap to 2030, with another 30 million tonnes to come out from 2030 to 2050.

A surprising opportunity is in the reduction of fugitive emissions from coal, oil and gas production. The Roadmap says these industries could cut fugitive emissions by 40 per cent from business as usual – 19 million tonnes of CO2 – by 2030 with new technologies.

Fugitive emissions from coal, oil and gas extraction can be cut by 40 per cent by 2030
CSIRO, Low Emisisons Technology Roadmap