What do early voting numbers tell us about Texas? [Opinion]

1of 2Some Harris County residents are considering casting their votes in person after failing to receive requested mail-in ballots from the county. Harris County Clerk Stan Stanart, the county’s chief election official, said his office has had to resent hundreds of ballots that were returned by the Post Office.Photo: File photo / File photo

2of 2The Harris County Courthouse in Pasadena has been busy with early voters since opening at 10:00 a.m during the last day of early voting, Friday, Nov. 1, 2013. ( Marie D. De Jesús / Houston Chronicle )Photo: Marie D. De Jesús, Staff / Houston Chronicle

After the first week of early voting, it has become increasingly clear that our community and Texas as a whole are in the midst of an unprecedented midterm election. Texans are waiting in lines for hours to cast their votes. The result has been record-breaking vote totals across the state. Here in Harris County, during the first four days of the early vote period, nearly a quarter million voters cast their ballots in person — the largest four-day midterm total in county history.

We still have too little data to to predict the specific election outcomes or the long-term effect of this outpouring of voter interest, but we know for certain that Texans are fired up and ready to vote. This state generally sees fewer than 40 percent of registered voters regularly participating in midterm elections. Here in Harris County, voter participation in this year is nearly three times that of the 2014 midterm and is approaching the pace set during the 2016 presidential election. Of the 30 most populous counties, which represent more than 78 percent of the state’s residents, voter turnout has doubled. Texans are treating this election cycle like a presidential race, not a midterm.

Historically, midterms have been viewed as a referendum on the party occupying the White House. This political axiom seems magnified this go ’round. Donald Trump’s name is not on the ballot, but the president clearly is casting a big shadow on this election. Here in Texas, according to the most recent polling, Trump’s approval rating stands at 50 percent, several points higher than his national numbers.

The impact the president is having on this election is clear and cannot be overstated. Recent NPR poll data indicate Trump is a significant factor for nearly two-thirds of voters, who are being driven to the polls in part to vote for or against the president. Many deride the polarization of our current politics, but that sharp split has also contributed to Americans’ dramatic increase in political interest.

This new political passion has also fueled a dramatic rise in the number of contested and competitive races across Texas, which in turn has fired up voter interest. Texas has been a one-party state dominated by Republicans for more than two decades, with competitive races largely reserved for primaries. Texas voters will be confronted by more competitive races on their ballots than at any time since 1994, including contests for congressional house seats, state house seats and, most notably, the first competitive U.S. Senate race this century.

Possibly as a result of interest in the U.S. Senate race between incumbent Republican Ted Cruz and his Democratic challenger, Beto O’Rouke, younger voters are voting at higher rates across the state. In Harris County, about 15 percent of all voters were between the age of 18 and 35 — double the percentage of the last midterm election — and their sheer number is four times as large as in 2014. If sustained, this age group’s increased participation could dramatically alter the outcome of many races.

If recent history is any indication, this current pace of early voting is likely to continue next week and into Election Day. While higher turnout has traditionally favored Democrats, the increased competitiveness of many races has also generated enthusiasm among Republican voters.

With fewer than 25 percent of expected votes cast, preliminary data indicate the two parties are participating at near equal levels. While Texans wait to see whether a much-touted “blue wave” materializes, it looks thus far as if the wave may not be big enough to overcome the tall red wall of Texas. The expected margin of victory in statewide elections is likely to be closer than any midterm this century. Locally, the recent trend of blue in presidential cycles, followed by red in midterms, looks likely to be replaced with purple in midterm elections.

What seems to be emerging is that the new normal in Texas politics will be greater enthusiasm, competitiveness and voting. The result may be a something we haven’t seen in a long time: a two-party Texas.

Aiyer is assistant professor of political science and public administration at Texas Southern University’s Barbara Jordan-Mickey Leland School of Public Affairs.