Post navigation

BREAKDOWN – Jazz trade CJ, Josh and Raja for Marvin and Randy

Marvin Williams and Randy Foye for Raja Bell, CJ Miles and Josh Howard

This analysis is a bit more complicated because the Jazz injuries rarely had Bell, Miles and Howard all playing at the same time and therefore the possession numbers are a bit screwy.

CJ Miles used 10 possessions per game, Josh used 11 and Raja used 6. For the convience of the discussion I will take 80% of those possessions as the Jazz regular amount of CJ, Josh and Raja possessions on any one night.

That makes for 22 possessions a night with CJ averaged .88 pts per possession, Josh was .91 and Raja was a high quality 1.05. Using the 80% mentioned before these three combined to use 21.6 possessions a game and score 20.09 pts per game.

Now move those 21.6 possessions to Foye and Marvin Williams. Last year Foye averaged 11.6 possessions a game and Williams averaged 10 which nicely ads up to 21.6. It is not clear how those possessions while be distributed with the Jazz. However, since both Josh and Cj got 11 a game I think it is fair to assume Randy and Marvin will be around 11 a game as well.

Last season, Foye averaged .94 pts per possession, one of the best of his career. Marvin averaged 1.01 pts per possession. Take the aforementioned 21.6 possessions and move them to Foye and Williams the Jazz increase their offense to 21 pts per or 1 point per game better than the old crew.

One point is worth 2.7 wins over a season.

Defensively, the Jazz allowed 105.4 pts per 100 possession with CJ on the floor and were worse when he was on the bench at 108.3. CJ played 67% of his minutes as a shooting guard.

The opposite was true for Raja Bell, the Jazz allowed 110.5 pts per 100 possessions when he was on the floor and 106.2 when he was on the bench
.
Finally, Josh Howard who played 37% of the Jazz minutes at small forward last year, the Jazz defense was a notch better when he was on the floor than off the floor. The Jazz defense allowed 106.2 per 100 points and when he was on the bench 107.7.

None of these players had a huge impact on the game defensively. The contrast with Raja was the most extreme.

Marvin Williams played 67% of his minutes at small forward and 20% at power forward, with the final minutes at center. According to PER, Williams is a great defender at the small forward allowed a PER of 11.9. He is poor at the power forward.

For the season, the Hawks were a better defensive team with Williams on the bench then they were when he was on the floor. They allowed 103.3 with him on the floor and 101.2 with him on the bench. These numbers are dramatically better than the former Jazz players but, the Hawks were better with Williams on the bench.

Two seasons ago, the Hawks were almost identically defensively with Williams on or off the floor and three seasons ago they were much better with Williams on the floor. In that year, Williams played almost exclusively at the small forward.

Foye is very similar to CJ and Josh. The Clippers were slightly better when he was on the floor than when he was on the bench. The Clippers allowed 106.8 when Foye was on the floor and 107.9 when he was off the floor.

According to 82games Foye allowed a PER of 14.4 at shooting guard but only 12.5 at point guard in limited time. Foye’s size may make him a very good defensive back up point guard. The last time he played a lot of point guard was in Washington and he allowed a 14.8 PER at the point.

Bell, Miles and Howard all allowed around 13 to 15 PER last year on defense. Harris and Watson were both between 16 and 17.

It is not clear the Jazz have a defensive upgrade with Marvin and Randy. Yet, if Marvin is solely a small forward he is at his strength and if Foye plays some of the back up point guard he maybe better defensively.

Being conservative I am going to call the defense a slight upgrade with the departure of Bell as the shooting guard spot but nothing too significant. Coupled with the offensive upgrade and a slight defensive upgrade I would call the Jazz 3 wins better with these moves.