Site Mobile Navigation

3 Strategic Road Maps on Path to Midterms

The six-month countdown to the midterm elections begins in earnest Tuesday as voters in Indiana, Ohio and North Carolina decide primary contests for House, Senate and governor’s races. The outcome will provide an early glimpse into how Republicans and Democrats are approaching the fall campaign.

The three states share a common thread: President Obama pulled them into the Democratic column in 2008. That result elevated Indiana and North Carolina into the political battlegrounds that Ohio has long been. The Democratic success has given Republicans an extra measure of incentive for strong performances as they try to rebuild and regroup before 2012.

These contests are the first round in a series of primaries that will unfold in the coming weeks and months. Here are a few races — and places — to watch.

Indiana

The fight to succeed Senator Evan Bayh, a retiring Democrat, is the marquee contest. Three Republicans are seeking the nomination in a race that could measure the intensity levels of anti-Washington sentiment.

Dan Coats, a congressman-turned-senator-turned-lobbyist, was the favored candidate of many Republicans. But Marlin Stutzman, a farmer and trucking company owner, has drawn the support of Tea Party activists and leading conservatives, including Senator Jim DeMint of South Carolina and Mike Huckabee, a former Arkansas governor and candidate for the Republican presidential nomination in 2008. John Hostettler, a former representative in southern Indiana, also is a prominent candidate in a five-way field. Whoever wins will face the challenge of uniting the party behind his candidacy and will face the Democratic nominee, Representative Brad Ellsworth, a former sheriff from Evansville, who defeated Mr. Hostettler in 2006.

While Mr. Obama became the first Democratic presidential candidate to win Indiana in four decades, the conservative-leaning state is more often unkind to Democrats. And Republicans are optimistic about the prospect of replacing Mr. Bayh, a Democratic official in the state since 1986, with one of their own.

Ohio

The retirement of Senator George V. Voinovich, a Republican, has touched off a scramble for an open seat. But in Ohio, the internal fight is on the Democratic side, with Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher challenging Jennifer Brunner, the secretary of state.

Mr. Fisher holds a wide advantage in polls, money and party support, which has injected a bitter dynamic into the primary.

If she loses, Ms. Brunner told reporters last week, she will not campaign for Mr. Fisher, a sentiment that Republicans sought to seize upon as an example of a divided party that could boost the candidacy of Rob Portman, a former representative from the Cincinnati region who also served as the United States trade representative in the George W. Bush administration.

Several statehouse races on the ballot will also help form a backdrop for the November elections. It was Mr. Obama’s victory in Ohio two years ago, Democrats believe, that propelled the party to win control of the Ohio House for the first time in 14 years. The fallout from the shift of power has produced several primary contests across the state, which both parties are watching as a test to see whose voters are motivated for a lower-turnout, midterm election year.

North Carolina

Several Democrats are competing for the nomination to challenge Senator Richard M. Burr, a first-term Republican. A former state senator, Cal Cunningham, is a leading candidate against Elaine Marshall, the secretary of state, and Ken Lewis, a lawyer. The showdown could continue to a runoff on June 22.

The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee has suggested that the fall campaign against Mr. Burr will be a race to watch. But considering the challenges Democrats are facing across the country, and in North Carolina, perhaps not that closely.

Utah

The week in politics will close on Saturday with the Utah Republican Convention, which is drawing outsized interest this year because Senator Robert F. Bennett will learn if he will survive an unusually strong conservative challenge.

Mr. Bennett has attracted seven Republican rivals, all of whom claim he is not conservative enough. His fate will not be decided by all Republican voters in the state, but 3,600 party delegates who were elected this spring.

Mr. Bennett has called upon Mitt Romney, a fellow Mormon and former Republican presidential candidate, to testify on his behalf at the state convention in Salt Lake City. Mike Lee, a former clerk for Justice Samuel A. Alito of the Supreme Court, is among the leading candidates trying to unseat Mr. Bennett. Tim Bridgewater, a businessman, and Cherilyn Eager, who is active in local Tea Party groups, are also are running.

Two contenders, after a multiple round of balloting, will proceed to a June primary.

“If the anti-incumbent tide is as strong as some people think it is, I will be swept out, despite of all my efforts,” Mr. Bennett said in an interview this spring. “If the anti-incumbent tide is a lot of conversation, but has no center of gravity as a true political movement, then I’ll be just fine. There’s no way to know.”

A version of this article appears in print on May 4, 2010, on page A16 of the New York edition with the headline: 3 Strategic Road Maps On Path to Midterms. Order Reprints|Today's Paper|Subscribe