2 About The Authors Alex Swedlow, MHSA, is Executive Vice President of Research & Development for the California Workers Compensation Institute, a non-profit research organization located in Oakland, California. Laura B. Gardner, MD, MPH, PhD is President of Axiomedics Research, Inc., a health services research and application development firm located in Los Altos, California. John Ireland, MHSA, is Associate Research Director at CWCI. Prior to joining CWCI, he was a Business Line Manager for Kaiser Permanente, involved in the development of medical provider networks, a health care organization and a 24-hour coverage pilot project. Elizabeth Genovese, MD, MBA, FACOEM, FAADEP is Medical Director of IMX Medical Management Services (IMEs, peer reviews, FCEs, and consultations), contributing editor for the American College of Environmental and Occupational Medicine Guidelines, and lead chair for the ACOEM Chronic Pain Chapter revision (scheduled for publication this summer). Acknowledgments The authors wish to acknowledge several subject matter experts who contributed guidance and suggestions on a variety of pharmaceutical, clinical, public policy and other issues central to this report. In particular, we wish to acknowledge members of The Workers Compensation Research Group, who provided invaluable suggestions on refinements to the classification methodology for tiered opioid use, and Edward Edelstein for his assistance in interpreting pharmaceutical data. Finally, CWCI Claims and Medical Director Brenda Ramirez provided background information on public policy issues relating to medical utilization and pain management. CWCI Reports to the Industry are published by the California Workers Compensation Institute Broadway, Suite 2350, Oakland CA 94607; California Workers Compensation Institute. All rights reserved.

3 A R e p o r t T o T h e I n d u s t r y Foreword Pain management is an evolving and controversial subject in the treatment of both occupational and nonoccupational illness and injury especially the use of opioids to treat acute and chronic pain. The main objectives of this study were to measure the prevalence of opioid use in job injury claims where the primary diagnosis was a back condition without spinal cord involvement, and to determine the associations between the use of opioids for these back conditions and key outcomes such as cost and length of disability. The study population consisted of a sample of 166,336 workers compensation claims for back conditions without spinal cord involvement, with dates of injury between January 2002 and November Medical treatment data, including diagnosis codes, procedure codes, benefit payments and filled prescriptions through December 2006 were compiled for each injured worker in the study population. The quantities of opioids dispensed to the workers in the study population were defined using two measures: 1) The number of filled opioid prescriptions per claim; and 2) The total morphine equivalent milligrams associated with filled opioid prescriptions (opioid medications for which the morphine equivalent dosage could be determined). The results document widespread use of opioids among injured workers suffering back conditions without spinal cord involvement. One out of four injured workers in the study population received one or more opioid prescriptions, and this subsample of workers averaged 5.2 opioid prescriptions per claim. Approximately 14 percent, or about 1 in 7 injured workers in the sample, received a prescription for which the prescribed opioid dose could be converted into morphine equivalent milligrams; and in those cases there was an average of 2,294 morphine equivalent milligrams dispensed per claim. While the injured workers who received modest levels of opioids (one prescription or less than 240 morphine equivalent milligrams) had outcomes that were statistically similar to those who received no opioids, those involving a greater number of opioid prescriptions or morphine equivalent milligrams were associated with higher costs and longer temporary disability durations. Average claim costs of workers receiving seven or more opioid prescriptions were three times more expensive than those of workers who receive zero or one opioid prescription, and these workers were 2.7 times more likely to be off work and had 4.7 times as many days off work. These findings suggest that greater use of opioid pain medication is associated with adverse outcomes among workers with occupational back conditions that do not involve the spinal cord. California Workers Compensation Institute June 2008

7 Background The Journal of the American Medical Association (2008) describes pain as an unpleasant sensory and emotional experience usually arising from actual or potential tissue damage. For many, the pain associated with tissue damage or inflammation is acute -- lasting up to several weeks. Chronic pain, on the other hand, is pain lasting more than several weeks. Chronic pain consists of pain associated with chronic medical conditions, neuropathic pain (resulting from nerve damage) and psychogenic pain (pain associated with no apparent disease or injury). Thus, pain can have many different underlying causes, and is a very subjective experience. Is it any wonder that medical treatment protocols for pain are complicated and often controversial? In many cases, the conventional therapy for pain can mean prescription of a group of analgesic medications known as opioids. 1 Opioids used to manage pain associated with life-shortening diseases, like cancer, have a unique set of issues and controversies, including serious debate about whether medical providers tend to underuse opioids in situations where addiction is not a relevant concern. However, the use of opioids to address non-cancer chronic pain is also controversial. The controversy over the use of opioids to treat pain associated with noncancer chronic conditions, like low back strain, generally centers on whether opioids are being overused. To understand the controversy about the use of opioids in the treatment of non-cancer chronic pain, one must first understand what opioids are, how they work, and the real and potential effects and associated risks. Opioids can be natural, semi-synthetic or wholly synthetic. The naturally occurring opioids are derived from opium. Morphine and codeine are the only two of these naturally occurring opioids that relieve pain. Semi-synthetic opioids include hydromorphone, oxymorphone and oxycodone. Examples of wholly synthetic opioids include levorphanol, fentanyl, methadone, propoxyphene and meperidine. Controlled substances such as opioids are classified by the United States Drug Enforcement Administration either according to their addictive potential or based on historical factors. 2 There are five levels, or schedules, of drugs that have addictive potential. In general, Schedule I is a list of drugs with the most addictive potential, and Schedule V is a list of the least addictive drugs. For example, among opioids, heroin is a Schedule I drug; fentanyl, hydromorphone, pure hydrocodone, pure codeine and morphine are classified as Schedule II drugs; and hydrocodone or codeine compounded with a non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drug such as acetaminophen are classified as Schedule III drugs. Tramadol is an atypical opioid not classified as a controlled substance. Opioid medications reduce pain by binding to a variety of pain receptors in the central nervous system, including the brain and spinal cord, as well as to receptors in other parts of the body. Different types of opioids bind to different receptors causing various results in addition to the reduction of pain. Common side effects of opioid use include respiratory depression, nausea, constipation, vomiting, itching, euphoria, drug tolerance and addiction. (See Appendix C Literature Review: Side Effects and Risks of Opioid Use.) Side effects generally increase with dose. Because responses to opioids can vary from person to person, and because development of tolerance can be addressed by changing the specific type of opioid, it is common for a physician to prescribe more than one analgesic or opioid during a course of treatment for any given individual. The existence of multiple opioid substances, each interacting with more than one receptor, makes opioid prescribing and management a challenge. When treating acute or sub-acute pain with a clear, physiological source and significant objective physical findings, opioid use is often based upon the belief that the pain relief that opioids provide is superior to that provided by other analgesic medications (even if these have not been tried). Management of pain during postsurgical recovery and in individuals with cancer are examples of this type of acute pain. However, opioids are also used for individuals with chronic, non-cancer pain, also known as chronic nonmalignant pain (CNMP), which is pain associated with a chronic disease process. Often the exact source of a patient s CNMP is uncertain. Such is frequently the case with the pain associated with back conditions. 1 Opioids are morphine-like medications that produce pain relief. The term opioid is preferred to the term narcotic; it refers to natural, semi-synthetic, and synthetic medications that relieve pain by binding to opioid receptors in the nervous system. The term opioid is also preferred to opiate because it includes all agonists (drugs that produce an action) and antagonists (drugs that act against and block an action) with morphine-like activity, as well as naturally occurring and synthetic opioid peptides. 2 The current official list of controlled substances can be found in Section 1308 of the most recent issue of Title 21 Code of Federal Regulations (CFR) Part 1300 to end (21 CFR 1308) and the final rules, which were published in the Federal Register subsequent to the issuance of the CFR. 1

8 There is widespread variability in the efficacy of opioids when used in the management of back pain and other CNMP conditions. The literature regarding the use of opioids in the management of CNMP indicates that they do not consistently and reliably relieve pain. There have been two recent systematic reviews and meta-analyses regarding the use of opioid medication in patients with chronic low back pain. The first (Martell et al, 2007) identified 15 studies comparing opioids with non-opioids, placebo, or opioid comparators. Six of these were high-quality studies that compared opioids with non-opioids or placebo over a mean study duration of 64 days (range 7 days to 16 weeks) and demonstrated that there was a substantial reduction in pain scores for all interventions, including placebo. Meta-analysis of the four studies that could be pooled indicated that the difference in pain in patients receiving opioid treatment compared with those receiving non-opioids (active controls) or placebo was not statistically significant. Five out of nine other trials testing pain levels before and after opioid treatment also were subjected to meta-analysis. The change in pain measurements between the baseline and the period after opioid treatment was again not statistically significant. The authors of these meta-analyses consequently suggested, Clinicians should reconsider treating chronic back pain patients with opioid medications, and consider other treatments with similar likelihood of benefit that have fewer long term adverse effects. The second recent systematic review (Deshpande 2007) of opioid use for low back pain (LBP) identified four trials as suitable for inclusion. Three compared tramadol to placebo and found the former to be more effective. One comparative trial found that there were statistically significant differences between opioids and another analgesic (naproxen) in relieving pain, but not in improving function. However, the authors noted that these trials were characterized by a lack of generalizability, inadequate description of study populations, poor intention-to-treat analysis, and limited interpretation of functional improvement. The conclusion was that the benefits of opioids in clinical practice for the long-term management of chronic LBP remains questionable, with a need for further high-quality studies to assess the usefulness and potential risks of opioids for individuals with chronic LBP. Opioid use in the management of CNMP also frequently fails to increase quality of life or functional status, especially over the long run, when opioids are compared to active, non-opioid alternatives. Two studies confirmed that opioid treatment of CNMP not only did not relieve pain, it also did not improve quality of life or functional capacity. The authors concluded that further study should be conducted on the effect of opioids on both quality of life and depression (Joranson et al 2000, Eriksen et al 2006). Development of the adverse effects of opioid use, both short-term (constipation, nausea, drowsiness) and longer-term (tolerance, physical dependency, addiction, impotence, and opioid-related increased pain) may explain the deleterious impact on quality of life and functional status. Thus, the treatment of CNMP, and chronic musculoskeletal pain in particular, remains controversial (McNicol et al 2005). Given the information derived from both high-quality systematic reviews and descriptive epidemiological studies, and the first principles 3 upon which the American College of Occupational and Environmental Medicine (ACOEM) Guidelines are based, ACOEM has recommended the following: Opioids should be used in acute musculoskeletal pain only when there is significant objective evidence of injury, when other medications such as NSAIDs and acetaminophen are contraindicated, or on a very limited basis if other medications have failed to control pain in the short term (up to 3 weeks after acute injury). In chronic pain, in infrequent instances, shortterm use of an opioid may occasionally be helpful during the initial active physical rehabilitation of persons with objective evidence for deconditioning, increased pain with exercise, and (fear avoidant) chronic pain behavior during initial therapy to facilitate physical activation if other means of temporary reduction in the musculoskeletal pain that increases with exercise, such as heat, acetaminophen or NSAIDs, are ineffective. In that setting, the judicious, short-term use of one non-combination, shortacting narcotic like oxycodone or codeine may be indicated. A maximum duration of four weeks is suggested. In rare situations when a patient derives clear functional benefit from opioid use, continued use may be indicated with careful management. 2 3 The first principles upon which the ACOEM guidelines are based are to refrain from recommending treatment that has not been clearly demonstrated to improve on the natural history of disorder, especially if potential harms are personally or socially significant (Harris JS, Hegmann KT, Holland JP, Sinnott P, Torkelson C, Weiss M. The ACOEM Occupational Medicine Practice Guideline Methodology updated. JOEM, submitted for publication).

9 Study Objectives Opioid use is widespread in the workers compensation system. Recent data compiled on pharmaceutical use showed that 29 percent of all prescriptions in the California workers compensation system were for narcotics (Ireland 2007). The main objectives of this study are to measure the prevalence of opioid use in treating back conditions that do not involve the spinal cord (one of the most common conditions in the California workers compensation system), and to determine associations between the use of these drugs and key outcome factors for this type of injury. 4 Data This research utilized administrative data on medical benefits, indemnity benefits, prescribed medication and drug descriptive detail (including National Drug Codes 5 ) compiled from the California Workers Compensation Institute s Industry Claims Information System (ICIS). These data were contributed by national and regional (California) workers compensation insurers, as well as large self-insured employers. ICIS data include open and closed workers compensation claims from a broad sample of workers compensation insurance carriers and self-insured employers from various industry sectors. Claim and policy characteristics in the ICIS database have been shown to be representative of those found in the overall population of California workers compensation claims (Lewin et al, 2008). The database contains medical and pharmaceutical information on more than 55 percent of the California workers compensation market. The study sample consisted of claims with conditions classified as Medical Back Problems Without Spinal Cord Involvement with dates of injury between January 2002 and November Medical treatment data, including diagnosis codes, procedure codes, benefit payments and filled prescriptions through December 2006 were compiled for each injured worker in the study population. The ICIS database uses a commercial diagnosis grouper that determines the primary, secondary and tertiary diagnoses for a claim using the array of all ICD-9 codes submitted, and then cross-walks these codes to one of 500 diagnosis categories. 6 In order to maximize the homogeneity of the study sample, the final dataset was limited to claims for which all three leading diagnosis codes could be grouped into the Medical Back Problems Without Spinal Cord Involvement diagnosis category. Table 1 shows the distribution of primary diagnosis codes for the final sample of 166,336 claims. Table 1: Distribution of Primary Diagnosis ICD9 Primary Diagnosis Claims Percent of Sample Sprain Lumbar Region 59, % Sprain Lumbosacral 28, % Sprain of Neck 27, % Sprain Thoracic Region 15, % Lumbago 9, % Backache NOS 5, % Sprain of Back NOS 4, % Lumbar/Lumbosacral Disc Degeneration 3, % Cervicalgia 2, % Sprain Sacroiliac NOS 2, % Cervical Disc Degeneration % Disorders of Sacrum % Sprain of Sacrum % Pain in Thoracic Spine % Degeneration of Intervertebral Disc, Site Unspecified % Sprain Sacroiliac % Other Symptoms Referable to Back % Sprain Sacroiliac NEC % All Others 2, % Total 166, % 4 Back conditions without spinal cord involvement comprise 21 percent of workers compensation claims in California and 31 percent of all workers compensation benefit costs. ICIS Injury Scorecard Series #1: Medical Back Problems Without Spinal Cord Involvement. CWCI. March Drug products are identified and reported using a unique number called the National Drug Code (NDC) which is a universal product identifier for human drugs maintained by the Federal Drug Administration (FDA). These ten-digit numbers identify the labeler (or manufacturer), product, and trade package size. 6 The grouper, Dyani Diagnosis Grouper, was provided by Axiomedics Research Inc. Dyani uses a proprietary algorithm that has been described in several studies including Smithline (1990), Swedlow (2002), and Gardner (2002). 3

10 Claims in the final data sample involved a total of 812,663 prescriptions with fill dates between January 2002 and April 2006, which contained 11,373 distinct NDC codes. To identify and group the NDC codes into products by drug name, the authors assigned each NDC a common trade name -- either a commonly recognized brand name, a generic equivalent, or both. This grouping resulted in 103 distinct drugs that comprised 93 percent of the prescriptions included in the dataset (Appendix A). The 103 drugs were then further summarized into 18 drug classifications. Table 2 shows the drug classifications and the distribution of prescriptions in the study sample: Table 2: Distribution of Drug Classification Drug Classification Number of Prescriptions Percent of Prescriptions NSAID 217, % Opiate Agonist 7 213, % Muscle Relaxant 160, % Acid Suppressants 48, % Anti-Depressant 25, % Anti-Anxiety 14, % Pain Relief Ointment 13, % Sleep Medication 12, % Anti-Convulsant 11, % Non-Narcotic Analgesic 8, % Steroid 8, % Local Anesthetic 7, % Nutritional Supplement 5, % Antibiotic 2, % Laxative 1, % Antihistamine % Alpha Agonist % Opiate Partial Agonists % Not Classified 58, % Total 812, % Equianalgesic Dose Not all opioids have the same analgesic potency and the method by which an opioid is administered also has an impact on the analgesic effect. For example, 7.5 milligrams of oral hydromorphone is as potent as 30 milligrams of oral morphine. At these doses these two drugs are considered equianalgesic. Similarly, 30 milligrams of oral morphine is equianalgesic to 10 milligrams of morphine administrated intravenously. 8 Equianalgesic dose tables are most often used by physicians to titrate pain medication when determining the most beneficial drug, dose and administrative mode for a particular patient. The category of drugs known as opiate agonists is a subset of opioids in which each drug has a known and applied equianalgesic dose. To adjust for variations in analgesic potency, the authors applied an equianalgesic dose conversion table to the dosage information available for the opioid agonist subset of prescriptions. There is no single equianalgesic dose table generally accepted by the medical community for this purpose, although they are all similar in their equivalent dose levels. Any of several tables can provide a useful guideline for the purposes of equating opioid potency among various opioids. The authors chose a table developed by the American Pain Society (1999) and used originally for the treatment of pain among cancer patients. This table is also used by many clinical research institutions when developing methods to assist physicians in titrating dosages to effectively medicate patients with pain, including Massachusetts General Hospital and Oregon Health Sciences University. The American Pain Society equianalgesic dose table provides information that allows the user to convert specific opioid doses to a morphine equivalent dose. The formula to convert a drug to its morphine equivalent is the following: It can be seen from Table 2 that opioids represented more than one out of four prescriptions filled by the injured workers in the study sample. 30 milligrams morphine equivalent dose x from table x morphine equivalents = drug dose to be converted 4 7 The opiate agonist count of prescriptions and the associated percent of prescriptions include the total of opiate agonist prescriptions with assigned morphine equivalent milligrams (18.3% of total prescriptions) and opiate agonist prescriptions without assigned morphine equivalent milligrams (8.0% of total prescriptions). 8 Because the data used in this study were limited to outpatient prescriptions, the type of administration associated with the drugs in the study sample was oral in more than 99 percent of the prescriptions.

11 The following example shows how to convert 5 milligrams of oxycodone to its morphine equivalent dose. The morphine equivalents table indicates that the dosage of oral oxycodone that is equivalent to 30 milligrams of morphine is 20 milligrams. Using the formula, we then solve for x: The equianalgesic 30 mg. morphinedoses adopted x morphine from equivalents the American Pain Association and used = 20 mg. oxycodone in this 5 mg. study oxycodone are detailed in Appendix B. x 1.5 = 5 Categories of Opioid Use = 7.5 mg. (e.g., 7.5 mg. of To determine the impact of varying morphine amounts is the equivalent of opioid use on claim outcomes, opioid quantities of 5 mg. oxycodone per claim were classified in two ways: 1) The number of filled opioid prescriptions 2) The total morphine equivalent milligrams associated with filled opioid prescriptions. Using the first method of classification, the authors developed five opioid usage categories: Claims that had no opioid prescriptions comprised the first category; claims with one opioid prescription made up the second category; claims with two or three opioid prescriptions became the third category; claims with three to seven opioid prescriptions comprised the fourth category; and the final category consisted of claims with more than seven opioid prescriptions. Descriptive statistics about these categories are provided in Table 3. Of the 166,336 injured workers analyzed in the study sample, 25 percent received one or more opioid prescriptions, and those prescribed this type of medication averaged 5.2 opioid prescriptions per claim. During the period of the study, the number of opioid prescriptions in these claims ranged from 1 to 206 prescriptions. One out of 12 (8.5 percent) of the injured workers in the study sample received 4 or more opioid prescriptions. Table 3: Number of Opioid Prescriptions by Claim Type and Category Med Only Claims Indemnity Claims Total Claims Percent of Total No Opiates 82,502 42, , % 1 Prescription 7,550 9,124 16, % 2 3 Prescriptions 2,422 7,686 10, % 4 7 Prescriptions 840 5,886 6, % > 7 Prescriptions 347 7,132 7, % Total (Claims w/ Prescriptions) 11,159 29,828 40, % Total (All Claims) 93,661 72, , % The authors also developed five categories of usage based on the quantity of morphine equivalent milligrams used. The first category consisted of claims with no morphine equivalent milligrams. The boundaries of the remaining categories were determined by using cutoffs at percentile levels similar to those of the categories used for number of opioid prescriptions. There were fewer claims (146,641) in the sample because claims with prescriptions for opioids for which no morphine equivalent dosage could be assigned were excluded Descriptive statistics about these categories are provided in Table 4. Table 4: Number of Milligrams of Morphine Equivalents in Filled Prescriptions by Claim Type and Morphine Equivalent Category Claim Category Med Only Claims Indemnity Claims Total Claims Percent of Total No MEs 82,530 42, , % Level 1 (>0 and <=240 MEs)s 5,405 5,795 11, % Level 2 (>240 and <=650 MEs) 1,025 3,280 4, % Level 3 (>650 and <=2,100 MEs) 380 2,542 2, % Level 4 (>2,100 MEs) 174 2,657 2, % Total (Claims w/mes) 6,984 14,274 21, % Total (All Claims) 89,514 57, , % Approximately 14 percent (or about 1 in 7) injured workers in the sample received one or more morphine equivalent milligrams over the course of the study period. Claims with morphine equivalent milligrams had an average of 2,294 milligrams per claim. 5

12 Case Mix Adjustment When comparing outcomes among non-randomized groups, case mix adjustment is important because it levels the playing field by controlling for the effects of factors other than those being analyzed that may influence the outcome(s) of interest. Researchers use regression analysis to adjust for differences in the mix of independent variables between groups. In analyses of workers compensation data, these variables include claimant demographics such as gender, age and marital status; average weekly wage; tenure; nature of injury; body part; cause of injury; occupation; claim type; attorney involvement; governing class of the employer; and year of injury. In this study, the authors used linear regression models to adjust for case mix while simultaneously estimating the relationships between the number of opioid prescriptions or the total morphine equivalent milligrams and several different outcome measures. The outcomes analyzed included: Average paid medical benefits per claim Average paid indemnity benefits per claim Average lost time from work (number of paid temporary disability days) Likelihood of attorney involvement Likelihood of lost time from work (indemnity status) Likelihood of open claim status Additional details of the regression output used in the analysis are available in the Research section of the CWCI website at Separate case-mix-adjusted models were used to test for associations between opioid levels and claim outcomes for all claims and for indemnity claims. Indemnity claims made up 39 percent and 44 percent of the opioid prescription and morphine equivalent claim samples, respectively, and more than 90 percent of the total benefits paid on behalf of the injured workers in the study population. The average amounts paid for total benefits, medical benefits, and indemnity benefits 9 by opioid usage categories are provided in Tables 5-8. The data on the right side of the tables show the percentages by which average paid benefits were higher for a given usage category compared to the category that had no opioid usage. 6 9 Indemnity benefits consist of temporary disability and permanent disability payments. Temporary disability benefits are payments made directly to injured workers to compensate them for lost-time days. Payments are calculated at approximately two-thirds of an injured workers pre-injury weekly wage. These payments are subject to various restrictions on length of time and maximum earning caps. (For more detail see Swedlow, A., Ireland, J. Analysis of California Workers Compensation Reforms Part 2: Temporary Disability Outcomes Accident Years Claims Experience. Research Update. CWCI. January 2008.) Permanent disability benefit payments are made to injured workers for compensation against the permanent effects of the occupational injury.

15 Paid Temporary Disability Days One of the most basic objectives of workers compensation systems and the providers of medical services to injured workers is to facilitate return to work. For this analysis, the authors used the number of paid temporary disability days as a proxy for measuring return to work. Tables 9 and 10 display the case-mix-adjusted average number of paid temporary disability days by opioid usage for all claims (including medical-only claims) and for indemnity claims only. As noted earlier in Tables 2 and 3, the usage categories consist of different proportions of medical-only and indemnity claims. Differences in the average number of paid temporary disability days, when analyzed among indemnity claims only, demonstrate the direct association between level of opioid use and lost time. However, the analysis of this association among all claims adds additional insight, in that it is a function not just of the number of temporary disability days when there is any lost time, but also of the underlying prevalence of lost time (indemnity status) among the overall claim population. The analysis of all claims with no opioid prescriptions shows a case-mix-adjusted average of 21.1 paid lost-time days, while indemnity claims with no opioid prescriptions involved a case-mix-adjusted average of 61.8 lost time days (Table 9). Among all claims, those with more than seven opioid prescriptions had 370 percent more lost-time days on average (99.1) compared to claims that had no opioid prescriptions, while indemnity claims with more than seven opioid prescriptions averaged nearly 138 paid indemnity days, or 123 percent more than lost-time claims without opioid prescriptions. All claims without morphine equivalent milligrams had a case-mix-adjusted average of 21.3 paid lost-time days, while indemnity claims without morphine equivalent milligrams had a case-mix-adjusted average of 62.9 losttime days. Among all claims, those with Level 4 morphine equivalent usage had a case-mix-adjusted average of 88 lost time days, or more than 4 times that of all claims with no morphine equivalent usage. Among indemnity claims, those in the Level 4 category of morphine equivalent usage had a case-mix-adjusted average of nearly 128 lost-time days, or about double that of indemnity claims with no morphine equivalent usage. Table 10: TD Days by Morphine Equivalent Level Medical Backs with No Spinal Cord Involvement All Claims vs. Indemnity Claims Morphine Equivalent Level Average TD Days Paid All Claims Indemnity Claims No Opiates Percentage Payment Increases by Morphine Equivalent Level All Claims Indemnity Claims 1 Prescription 21.3* % 6.4% 2 3 Prescriptions % 33.9% 4 7 Prescriptions % 62.6% > 7 Prescriptions % 103.3% * Not a statistically significant difference from the baseline. Table 9: TD Days by Opiate Agonist Level Medical Backs With No Spinal Cord Involvement All Claims vs. Indemnity Claims # of Opiate Agonist Prescriptions Average # of TD Days Paid All Claims Indemnity Claims No Opiates Percentage Payment Increases by Level of Opiate Agonist Prescriptions All Claims Indemnity Claims 1 Prescription * -10.0% 3.1% 2 3 Prescriptions % 28.0% 4 7 Prescriptions % 63.8% > 7 Prescriptions % 123.0% * Not a statistically significant difference from the baseline. 9

16 Likelihood Estimates Logistic regression analyses were used to estimate the likelihood of indemnity payments, attorney involvement and open claim status by opioid usage category. The results of the analysis of the likelihood of indemnity costs showed that after controlling for all other factors, opioid usage was positively associated with the case-mix-adjusted likelihood of indemnity payments. The same association was found for the likelihood of attorney involvement and the likelihood of open claim status. These results are shown in Exhibits 11 and 12. Exhibit 11 shows case-mix-adjusted likelihood estimates for each of the opioid prescription categories. For example, the likelihood of indemnity payments among claims with no filled opioid prescriptions was 34 percent or one out of every three claims. When there was one opioid prescription, the likelihood of indemnity payments rose to 56 percent well over half of all claims. When there were two or three opioid prescriptions, the likelihood of indemnity payments was more than 86 percent, while that likelihood rose to nearly 90 percent among claims that had 4 to 7 opioid prescriptions, and to 94 percent of the claims that had more than 7 opioid prescriptions. Case-mix adjusted likelihood estimates of attorney involvement ranged from less than 18 percent among claims with no opioid prescriptions to more than 45 percent among claims with 4 to 7 opioid prescriptions. Case-mix adjusted likelihood estimates of open status showed that for claims with two or more opioid prescriptions the likelihood that the claim was still open was incrementally higher as the number of opioid prescriptions increased. Exhibit 11: Likelihood of Indemnity, Attorney Involvement and Open Status by Opiate Prescription Category 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% Indemnity Attorney Involvement Open Claims No Opioid Prescriptions 34.2% 17.8% 16.6% 1 Opioid Prescription 56.4% 21.5% 14.5% 2 3 Opioid Prescriptions 86.3% 32.7% 18.4% 4 7 Opioid Prescriptions 89.7% 45.0% 22.2% > 7 Opioid Prescriptions 94.0% 36.2% 25.5% 10

17 Exhibit 12: Likelihood of Indemnity, Attorney Involvement and Open Status by Morphine Equivalent Category 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% Indemnity Attorney Involvement Open Claims No Morphine Equivalents 34.6% 18.2% 16.6% Level 1* 58.8% 17.8% 15.7% Level % 28.2% 21.1% Level % 34.9% 21.5% Level % 33.5% 22.0% * There are no statistically significant differences between Level 1 Attorney Involvement and Open Claims status values and the baseline values. Exhibit 12 shows case-mix-adjusted likelihood estimates of indemnity payments, attorney involvement and open status for each of the morphine equivalent categories. The likelihood of indemnity costs when there were no morphine equivalent milligrams was just under 35 percent. When there were up to 240 morphine equivalent milligrams (Level 1), the likelihood of indemnity increased to nearly 59 percent. Beyond that, the likelihood of indemnity was relatively stable, ranging between 81 percent of the Level 4 claims (more than 2,100 morphine equivalent milligrams) and 86 percent of the Level 3 claims (those with between 650 and 2,100 morphine equivalent milligrams). Case-mix adjusted likelihood estimates of attorney involvement (litigation) ranged from 18 percent among claims with no morphine equivalent milligrams to more than one-third of the Level 3 and Level 4 claims (more than 650 morphine equivalent milligrams). Casemix adjusted estimates of the likelihood of open status ranged from just under one out of six of the claims with less than 240 morphine equivalent milligrams (Level 1 or no MEs) to 22 percent among claims with more than 2,100 morphine equivalent milligrams (Level 4). Discussion In our study sample, one in four workers with a workers compensation claim for a back condition with no spinal cord involvement received at least one prescription for opioid analgesics. Claimants who received these medications averaged 5.2 opioid prescriptions over the course of their treatment, including nearly 2,300 morphine equivalent milligrams. This study found that injured workers with these types of back conditions who received modest levels of opioids (one prescription, or less than 240 morphine equivalent milligrams) had outcomes that were statistically similar to those who received no opioids. However, greater numbers of opioid prescriptions and morphine equivalent milligrams were associated with higher costs and a higher prevalence of other adverse outcomes, such as lost time from work and a longer duration of paid temporary disability. Claims with seven or more opioid prescriptions were three times more expensive on average than those with zero or one opioid prescription, and these workers were 2.7 times more likely to be off work, with an average of 4.7 times as many days off work. These results are consistent with recent findings linking a high incidence of opioid use with a greater number of lost-time days for occupational low back pain (Webster et al 2007). 10 Physical activity is an important contributor to recovery among patients with disabling back conditions. It is a 10 For additional background on side effects and risks see Appendix C. 11

18 truism that, You don t get injured workers well to get them back to work you get them back to work to get them well. 11 Hilde found no evidence that staying active is harmful for either acute low back pain or sciatica, and noted the potentially harmful effects of prolonged bed rest (Hilde et al, 2003). For this reason, factors inhibiting physical activity will inhibit recovery. While pain reduction has been assumed to be the most direct route to enhancing activity levels among patients with back conditions, the literature regarding the use of opioids in the management of CNMP does not indicate that they consistently and reliably relieve pain. Indeed, the persistent use of opioids correlates with a decrease rather than an increase in the quality of life and functional status, especially over the long run, and when opioids are compared to active, non-opioid alternatives. Furthermore, Linton reported that there was no significant correlation between self-reported pain intensity and decreased activity levels, as measured by self-monitoring or observed behavior in a test situation (Linton 1985). This was confirmed by Al-Obaidi, who found that limitations in physical capacity are not explained solely by sensory perceptions of pain, but that anticipation of pain and fear/avoidance about physical activities were strong predictors of variations in physical performance (Al-Obaidi et al 2000). One of this study s primary strengths is the use of a large database of 166,336 workers compensation claims for back conditions. The availability of detailed diagnosis and medical treatment data, in addition to demographic data and injury characteristics, enabled the researchers to select a homogeneous sample of claims reflecting back conditions not involving the spinal cord, as well as to case mix adjust the analyses at an even finer level using ICD-9 codes. However, the analyses were subject to the limitations inherent in administrative data. Data on the psychosocial factors associated with pain and pain management, pre-injury health status, post-injury patient satisfaction and quality of life, the relationship of the patient to the treating physician and the patient s inclination to participate actively in his/her recovery, although generally not available, would add tremendous insight. Public Policy Implications Between 1992 and 2003, the California workers compensation system experienced unprecedented cost increases for medical care delivered to injured workers. California Workers Compensation Insurance Rating Bureau (WCIRB) estimates released in 2003 showed that between 1992 and 2002, the average ultimate medical cost 12 per workers compensation indemnity claim increased from $8,693 to $31,767, a 265 percent increase (WCIRB 2003). Legislative reforms were enacted in 2003 and 2004 to control workers compensation unit prices for medical services as well as utilization. The reforms mandated the adoption of an evidence-based Medical Treatment Utilization Schedule (MTUS) to define treatment reasonably required to cure or relieve an injured worker from the effects of an injury. The initial version of the MTUS, created in June 2007, gave significant legal weight to treatment provided in accordance with the American College of Occupational and Environmental Medicine s Occupational Medicine Practice Guidelines, 2nd Edition for all conditions or injuries addressed by those guidelines, except for acupuncture services for which specific utilization rules are included in the regulation (Glass et al, 2004). For other conditions or injuries, the MTUS required treatment in accordance with other scientifically and evidence-based medical treatment guidelines nationally recognized by the medical community using ACOEM s strength-of-evidence rating methodology to evaluate and compare scientific evidence published in peerreviewed, nationally recognized journals. In August, 2007, the DWC solicited informal comment on draft chronic pain guidelines that it proposed to adopt in revisions to the MTUS. These guidelines will ultimately include recommendations on the use of opioids and other drugs. Pain management remains a significant topic of debate. Despite the high prevalence of opioids in the management of pain, the ACOEM guidelines state that opioid use is the most important factor impeding recovery of function in patients referred to pain clinics, which may reflect failure of providers to set up the expectation of improved function as a [prerequisite] for prescribing them Elizabeth Genovese, Key note address, 2007 California Workers Compensation Institute Annual Meeting, San Francisco, CA. 12 Estimated ultimate costs relate to the projected future total benefit claim cost.

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