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TROPICAL STORM EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT THU SEP 03 1998
RADAR AND SURFACE DATA SHOW THE CENTER OF EARL ACCELERATING
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH GEORGIA. CURRENT MOTION IS 50 DEGREES AT
ABOUT 17 KT. THEY ALSO SHOW A SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKENED CIRCULATION
...AND MAXIMUM WINDS ARE NOW ESTIMATED TO BE 40 KT...AND THESE ARE
PROBABLY LIMITED TO THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE CENTER. GUSTS TO
TROPICAL STORM FORCE ARE ALSO OCCURRING OVER THE ATLANTIC COASTAL
WATERS OFF GEORGIA.
THE CURRENT MOTION AND GUIDANCE HAVE LED TO A FORECAST MOTION THAT
IS CONSIDERABLY FASTER THAN 6 HOURS AGO. THE TRACK OF THE CENTER IS
EXPECTED TO EMERGE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST IN 24 TO 36 HOURS.
WEAKENING SHOULD CONTINUE IN THE INTERIM AND SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW STORM STRENGTH TODAY. THE SYSTEM CONTINUES
TO GRADUALLY LOSE ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AND WE ARE
FORECASTING IT TO BE EXTRATROPICAL WHEN IT LEAVES THE COAST. THAT
IS BY NO MEANS A CERTAINTY AND THE SYSTEM IS THEN LIKELY TO STILL
HAVE A STRONG CIRCULATION ALOFT. THEREFORE...WHILE THIS IS INTENDED
TO BE THE FINAL ADVISORY ON EARL FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER...WE WILL RESUME ADVISORIES IF THE SYSTEM AGAIN BECOMES A
COASTAL OR OFFSHORE THREAT AS A TROPICAL EVENT.
UNTIL THEN...INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM WILL BE PROVIDED IN
ISSUANCES OF THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL
PREDICTION CENTER UNDER AFOS HEADER NFDSCCNS5 AND WMO HEADER WWUS37
KWBC...TO BEGIN AT 4 PM EDT.
RAPPAPORT
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 03/1500Z 32.1N 83.3W 40 KTS
12HR VT 04/0000Z 33.7N 80.7W 30 KTS...INLAND
24HR VT 04/1200Z 35.9N 77.2W 30 KTS...INLAND
36HR VT 05/0000Z 37.7N 73.3W 40 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT 05/1200Z 39.8N 68.3W 45 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 06/1200Z 43.0N 55.0W 45 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
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