Amaro betting it all on healthy Howard

The Phillies were 77-63 with first baseman Ryan Howard in the lineup over the last two seasons and 77-107 without him. After a mostly unproductive offseason, the general manager Ruben Amaro Jr. will be counting on him to produce this season. (Times Staff / ERIC HARTLINE)

In five days, the Phillies’ offseason ends and spring training begins when pitchers and catchers report.

The good news is that there is no way workouts could go as poorly as most of the experts think the offseason went for general manager Ruben Amaro Jr.

The significant trade Amaro hoped to make didn’t materialize. He re-signed 35-year-old catcher Carlos Ruiz, who has averaged less than 100 starts per season for his entire career and less than 90 over the last two seasons, to a three-year, $26 million deal most considered wild overpayment. He signed 36-year-old outfielder Marlon Byrd to a two-year, $16 million contract early in free agency — another deal considered pricy in its hastiness. The Phillies turned to Roberto Hernandez for aid in replacing Roy Halladay in the starting rotation. At $4.5 million, it isn’t a big risk, but even a new name for the former Fausto Carmona can’t cover the fact that the right-hander has had one respectable season since 2007.

The one underwhelming trade Amaro managed to make landed Brad Lincoln, a middling reliever who never has fulfilled the promise when he was the fourth overall pick in the 2006 draft.

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The last move of significance was to sign 40-year-old Bobby Abreu to a minor-league deal. In truth, it might have been the most reasonable transaction of the offseason, but the fact that Abreu was the last over-the-hill transaction only added to the dark comedy of it all.

Even manager Ryne Sandberg was ready when asked about his old roster getting older.

“They blend right in,” he said with a laugh.

The decision to keep the team long in tooth and similar in makeup means that Amaro has pushed all his chips in with one statistic from the last two seasons: 77-63.

That is the Phillies’ record when Ryan Howard was in the starting lineup — a Ryan Howard debilitated by legs ravaged by a ruptured Achilles’ tendon its aftermath, which included a knee that needed surgical repair last summer.

The Phillies were 77-107 in games without Howard. There certainly were other circumstances playing a role in the team’s fortunes when the first baseman was or wasn’t in the lineup. However, with $40 million of investment in Howard lost over the last two seasons and $85 million remaining over the next three years, Amaro decided he was committed to the expectation that Howard can and will recover from his injury woes in 2014. Amaro has been telling anyone who will listen that Howard is “100 percent” healthy.

Which brings us to this quote:

“My left leg feels phenomenal compared to this time last year, compared to where it was when I came back.”

That was Ryan Howard when he met the media at the start of last spring training. Five months later, his right knee was being surgically repaired.

So, there is a great deal of uncertainty as it pertains to the hope that Howard not only can be on the field for a full season, but that he will resemble the man who anchored the Phillies’ lineup during its run of five straight postseason appearances.

If there is any solace for Amaro in taking that risk, it’s that he didn’t have anything to show for the $44.5 million invested in players who were healthy and performing at or close to their peaks in 2013.

If the Phillies proved anything last season, it’s that having two elite starters at the top of the rotation isn’t enough to get a team even remotely close to contention. Cole Hamels and Cliff Lee were one of two tandems with 200 or more innings pitched, an ERA under 4, a WHIP under 1.200 and 150-plus strikeouts last season — and the 73-89 Phillies actually had the best record of teams with two pitchers meeting those marks (Felix Hernandez and Hisashi Iwakuma of the 72-90 Mariners were the other).Despite Lee and Hamels pitching to expectations, the Phils finished 14th out of 15 NL teams in ERA, as only Jonathan Pettibone (5-4, 4.04 ERA in 18 starts) had remotely respectable numbers of the other eight pitchers to make starts for the Phils in 2013.

The Phillies aren’t out of options when it comes to fortifying the back end of a rotation made up of Hernandez, Kyle Kendrick, Pettibone and Cuban mystery man Miguel Gonzalez. Ubaldo Jimenez and Ervin Santana, among the top 10 free-agent pitchers on the market, remain unsigned, as does A.J. Burnett. And with the bullpen forced to be devoted to moody closer Jonathan Papelbon and fragile set-up man Mike Adams, the Phils were watching Ryan Madson throw off a mound last week after a second “Tommy John” elbow surgery.

“We’ll see what happens,” Sandberg said late last month. “We’ll get down to spring training and see guys throw the ball and get that figured out. Whether we’re done or not, that remains to be seen. Something could still be done.”

Something always can be done, but at this point Amaro might have to see what he has in Ryan Howard before he can decide if any other money should be thrown around.