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This is a shocker ... and I love it! As unlikely as it once seemed, The Artist is now the odds-on favourite in the Academy Awards race. Not only is the film guaranteed to be nominated for a slew of Oscars on Tuesday, it is already the front-runner to win as best picture on Feb. 26.

This is a phenomenon. The Artist demonstrates that Oscar momentum cannot be easily divined, crudely manufactured or purchased outright. Even if Harvey Weinstein and The Weinstein Company are involved, which is the case here because Harvey bought the North American distribution rights, there are still unfathomable mysteries involved.

When The Artist made its world premiere at the Cannes Film Festival last May, it looked like the longest of long-shots. Charming, yes, but doomed to remain an obscure object of desire for cinephiles.

It is a low-budget production from France (Belgium is co-producer). It is a romantic comedy. It was photographed in black-and-white. It was shot in the early film ratio of 1.37:1 even though all other movies are in widescreen, often in 3D. It is set in the 1920s and is abuzz with vintage jazz and showtunes (Woody Allen anyone?). It is a film about filmmaking (usually a curse). The stars are French actors Jean Dujardin and Berenice Bejo who, while absolutely wonderful, were virtual unknowns here. None of the American and English co-stars is a marquee name. Worldwide boxoffice is currently a modest $28 million (according to Box Office Mojo).

To cap it all off, there are just a couple of lines of dialogue at the end (in English and more for our amusement than illumination). This is a silent film!

Yet people who see it absolutely love it. The expectation is that the 6000 voting members of the Academy of Motion Pictures Arts & Sciences are among the admirers. No silent film has won as best picture since the first Academy Awards in 1929, when William Wellman's Wings triumphed as best among the 1927-28 entries (another silent film, F.W. Murnau's Sunrise: A Song of Two Humans, won the parallel best picture award in the "unique and artistic" category). By 1930, the best picture winner was "a talkie".

There is no logical explanation for what has happened with The Artist. At a time when Hollywood turns so much into spectacle, however, there must be a yearning for something naive. The Artist is, above all, simple, elegant and old-fashioned.

Weinstein's magic is less obvious for other titles The Weinstein Company released, including My Week With Marilyn. That shows he cannot have his way with everything. Michelle Williams will certainly be nominated for best actress for playing iconic Marilyn Monroe, yet the movie itself is a 100-to-1 shot for a best picture nom. Bridesmaids -- not a Weinstein release -- has far more traction and should make it, creating another mystery of momentum. Bridesmaids has been steadily climbing for weeks. Who knows why?

Williams is part of an ongoing Oscar trend. Every year in the 2000s, actors are singled out for a nom while their films get little or no other recognition. I predict The Iron Lady will get that treatment, too. Meryl Streep will be nominated best actress for playing Margaret Thatcher. She is the favourite to win. Yet The Iron Lady will otherwise be ignored. Ditto for Michael Shannon with Take Shelter and possibly Michael Fassbender in Shame. Plus Tilda Swinton and We Need to Talk About Kevin.

In contrast, there is The Descendants. It stars George Clooney, who is the favourite for best actor over Jean Dujardin of The Artist. But Alexander Payne's bittersweet drama is also a slam-dunk to be nominated for multiple Oscars. It may even be leading the race, ahead of other contenders such as The Artist, Hugo, Midnight in Paris, Moneyball, The Tree of Life, War Horse, Bridesmaids, The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo, The Ides of March and The Help. We will know Tuesday morning.