Fantasy Drafts, Magic Numbers, Etc.

The Giants Barely Score Pi Runs A Game.

If you are in the market for such knowledge, the Arizona Diamondbacks have a magic number of 25 in the NL West. I’m just putting that out, letting it get some air, there’s certainly not a conclusion coming. There are questions, though. Like, exactly how putrid are the San Francisco Giants right now? They’ve won 11 of their last 30. During that torrid stretch, they’ve scored 2.7 runs per game (and were shutout 5 times), which brought their season average to 3.39. A decent ERA, and not much else. They’ve scored the fewest runs in baseball, have the sixth worst run differential in the National League and are losing ground rapidly to the Diamondbacks, a team who won 7 in a row, lost six in a row and now has won six straight. They’ve opened up a four game lead in the West, and the Giants are also 8.5 games out of touch in the wild-card race.

So, still worried about playing the Giants? San Francisco is not looking real destiny-ish right now. Things have changed since 2010. Most notably, there’s no Buster Posey or waiver wire infusions of life this time around. The starting pitching looks a tad less sharp, and Brian Wilson isn’t 100%. I wonder if Phillies fans aren’t rooting against a team that would turn out to be very beatable. I understand the issues of facing the Giants in a five game series, but I don’t think we should overlook the tailspin. The Giants do little right these days, and I know there is a month left in the season, but I’m starting to wonder if Arizona wouldn’t be a tougher match-up. Some youthful exuberance?

I have a feeling most people would disagree with the notion that Arizona is the tougher team, and I’m not really saying I believe that, just pointing out a few things about those terrifying Giants. No matter the end result, they stink right now, so enjoy it.

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I’ve got a fantasy draft tonight. My one and only. I’m exclusive like that. So, I’ve been ignoring my advice of no mock drafts, because they are kind of entertaining for about 5 rounds (just like the actual draft) and it’s nice to get a sense of what’s out there, what the general consensus is on some players. Here’s some stuff I’ve gleaned…

People aren’t exactly sure what to do with Chris Johnson, and I don’t blame them. I don’t want any part of the Johnson window, which I’d say is picks 3 through 6. If you have 1 or 2, you can take AP, Foster, maybe Charles and feel pretty comfortable. Right around number four, though, things change. At that point, do you want Ray Rice? LeSean McCoy? You know these guys are guaranteed, feature backs, but they’re a little underwhelming, especially with 2,000 yard Chris Johnson sitting there. When’s he coming back? If you take Rice at #4 and he puts up 1,100 yards and 10 scores you’ll feel like a moron if Johnson breezes in next week, doesn’t miss a beat and scores 18 TDs. It’s a tough spot, so I’m hoping that I can either safely avoid Johnson, or he’s gone before I pick.

Another thing I’ve noticed is what appears to be a lack of depth at the skill positions. I can give everyone fair warning that in the mock drafts I’ve done, the WR talent gets gobbled up in a hurry. And, I don’t know if the league is just thin on wide receivers, but by round 5 or 6 you’re mostly looking at bye-week plug-in caliber talent. It’s pretty disturbing. Now, WR is also a position that will always have a hit or two on the waiver wire, but don’t be surprised if your WR corps looks a little thin after your draft. Product of the times.

And, with running backs, the disappearance of the feature back and the goal line vultures continues to create fantasy football nightmares. It’s almost as if the head coaches don’t realize the importance of fantasy football. How many top running backs would you be really comfortable taking? Two or three? Here’s the top-20 RBs from a random site. I’ll put the worry free guys, for their projected round in bold. Everyone else, I’ll list an issue.

Arian Foster

Adrian Peterson

Jamaal Charles

Chris Johnson–Not in camp, hasn’t practiced.

Ray Rice

LeSean McCoy–Ronnie Brown, Eagles Red Zone Offense

Darren McFadden–Low TDs, Never Healthy for Full Season

Mo-Jo Drew–Knee Held Together By Wishes

Frank Gore–Banged up last year, Hates his Team

Rashard Mendenhall

Matt Forte–Bears Offense

Steven Jackson–8 million career carries.

Peyton Hillis–He’s white.

Michael Turner–29 years old

Jahvid Best–555 career rushing yards, not a goal line back

Knowshon Moreno–Change his middle name to “Questionable”

Ahmad Bradshaw–These rankings are terrible, but Bradon Jacobs

LeGarrette Blount

DeAngelo Williams–Jonathan Stewart.

Shonn Greene–LaToe Injury.

So, take a look there. That’s just the “top 20.” In a 10 team league, you’re probably going to draft about 40-50 running backs, upwards of 60 in a 12-team league. Think of the issues the guys are going to have once you get to the bottom of that barrel. Ok, that’s enough fantasy talk for the day. I’ve got to immerse myself in projections (celebrity gossip websites) for the rest of the afternoon. I expect everyone to wish me luck with my draft, and good luck in yours, feel free to drop pearls of wisdom. You know, someone asked me, don’t people get information about your strategy by reading your blog, and I just say, even when they know what’s coming, they can’t stop it.

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9 thoughts on “Fantasy Drafts, Magic Numbers, Etc.”

So…I had my second draft last night and had the 8th pick in a 10 man league. I saw 2 QBs go ahead of me and I still managed to get Charles with my first pick. Made me think – are the high-end (top 3) QBs really worth a first round pick? Even guys like Vick? And yes, my WR are not great but I am proud of my 6th round Tim Hightower snag.

I can’t say I’m happy with my draft. I made one incredible error and seemed a pick or two late on a lot of guys including some sleepers I wanted. But, we’ll see how it shakes out.

I think QB depends on the league, if throwing TDs are 4 points, it’s much harder to justify a real early pick. But, there are occasions like Vick last year where they merit the selection.

The problem for me is, and why I tend to get QB happy in the 7-10 slots is that I never feel comfortable taking someone like Megatron that high. Even if the QB pool is usually much deeper, I’d rather have a lock at QB rather than sitting around waiting to see if its the week that Stafford’s arm falls off or wondering which Matt Schaub is going to show up.

But, to get Charles at 8 is pretty surprising. Hard to ignore him there.

Probably depends what’s left on the board RB wise. I’m not buying charles b/c i hate the chiefs, but if you’re picking at 6-8 and somehow Brady/Manning/Brees is there and the options are some RB (MJD for example) with serious questions about health or a potential tandem guy, might as well take the surefire points. Also depends on the distance to your next pick where you could snag a stud WR, then get the RBs next. At that point, the difference between RBs is probably minimal, while the difference between Andre Johnson and the 5th-6th best WR is cavernous.

Hah, interesting list. I also saw this story. Unfortunately I can’t tell you who exactly is in the league. I think you are probably on the right track with the bullpen guys and bench players. I’d be surprised if Halladay took the time to do it, and Utley as well. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Gload in there, maybe even a coach or two.

I know the guys that play though are pretty into it, so I wouldn’t expect to see Stephen Jackson or MJD go that high, throw Megatron in there, and I think you left out Jamaal Charles as well…

I would say no one cares about the Jags when their stadium is about 1/8th full for a home game… they really should be the team relocating to LA. I’m tired of all the Chargers to LA talk going on out here.