For many years I looked forward to Research In Motion's late December quarterly results. They'd almost always outperform expectations so it was like an early Christmas present to sit there listening to the joy.

The last couple of years haven't been quite as fun to watch. This Thursday, December 20th, RIM will report its latest set of financial results. Will we get an early Christmas present? We shall see.

For the quarter to be reported, the consensus estimate is shipments of 7.2 million devices with an average selling price of $215 (slightly down from last quarter). Analysts think RIM will add just 0.4 million subscribers (compared to 2 million last quarter). I'm not going to worry too much about those numbers because they reflect the ghost of BlackBerry Past, not the future under BlackBerry 10. But, last quarter the market was surprised at the resilience of the brand in the emerging markets, and the 2 million subscriber number was quite strong. So can they do it again?

More important, as always, will be the outlook for next quarter. This will be the first time we listen to a conference call from RIM knowing that the BlackBerry 10 release is actually coming in the current quarter. So we should get a lot of commentary from management about what's coming. That said, and as we discussed on the latest podcast, I think RIM needs to surprise the heck out of the market on January 30th, so I'm not holding my breath for too much disclosure.

Here's an interesting number to keep in mind though - $227. That's the average selling price (ASP) analysts think RIM will achieve in the year ending February 2014. As a crucial reminder, ASP is what RIM charges carriers for phones, and is NOT the same as the subsidized or off-contract price. Obviously BlackBerry 10 will have a way higher ASP (I think closer to $550), so depending on the mix shift over the next year, this is where RIM has a lot of potential earnings leverage.

Mixed in with this, we have the risk of falling service revenue. CEO Thorsten Heins and Brian Bidulka (the company's CFO) have often commented about the pressure RIM is facing with service revenue. As a shareholder, I just hope we're talking about a long, slow decline thaht can be offset by new service revenue growth coming from things like converting the BES business to a SaaS model, or machine to machine (M2M) computing.

If BlackBerry 10 sales get off to a good start it will boost the company's ASPs faster than analysts expect. This will help profitability, and could contribute much faster than any drop in service revenue. If this happens, I think the stock will keep climbing next year.

The Crack team will be live blogging the results as usual, so be there after the market closes next Thursday!

So, wouldn't it be a good idea to wait until the stock price falls after the result's call, buy when the stock price is actually low and then just wait until end of January or even longer and sell? Because as I see it, the stock will likely only go further up, even after a possible little dent by thursday, right?
-pac

I'm wondering where all of the "it's going to be a bloodbath" people are. They were shouting as loud as possible before the last quarterly results and (frankly) looked stupid shortly after the results were announced.

I'm not expecting anything great from the numbers, but as long as they haven't dropped in subscriber numbers and haven't burned any (or much of) their 2.3bn cash reserves, then were all go for BB10 launch on January 30th.

A sensible reply. In my view, the June quarterly results, along with announcements of restructuring and the BB10 delay was the watershed moment for RIM. They got all the bad news out and have been building a positive trend since this point. I expect a continuation of this trend on Thursday. Then the fun begins.

I agree. They got all the bad news that day and Thor took it on the chin. I was actually pleased that day as I was pretty sure they were clearing the deck for the new management group and bb10 to move forward.

I am not so sure about tomorrow especially cash. Don't see it as a problem but I think they might miss the analyst mark on this one. Very difficult to keep gaining cash from inventory etc.

Probably do well on other markets especially subscriptions. I suspect they have continued their momentum in emerging markets.

Why would they possibly sell 40 days before their biggest launch? It doesn't add up. After, when the company is worth more because of "better than expected" sales of BB10 devices, but before is a rediculous idea.

well if the date the mayans set was 21st dec, and leap years were introduced after the mayans, id of thought that was self evident they couldnt account for it otherwise they`d ave implemented leap years themselves lol

I'm hoping for a bomb and the stock drops $3 or $4 (or more!). Only because I dragged my feet in buying south of $10, and regret it... lol
I've never invested on the stock market and don't know much about it, but I've long wanted to own RIM stock.. back in 1999 before they "made it" when the stocks were $3 or less they were the Buzz of Waterloo. My Dad had some and got nervous when they hit ~$10, so sold... kicked himself a few months later when they went to $35, then really kicked himself in 2008!

Chris, in regards to SRG, I suspect this is being addressed with "value added" BBM rollout/s. One avenue I look forward to is BBM Money, little talked about but imho large growth possibilities, which again ties in well to BBM value added rollout/s. The synergy is there, waiting to be exploited. :)

There are a few milestones that need to be mentioned here, one is sell-though as they clear out inventory. They have tracked 10.5 and 10.4 in the first two quarters of fiscal 2013. I hope they continue to track close to those numbers for this quarter. Secondly, cash on hand is important, not so much that they need to hang onto it as they also need to produce enough new products and advertise their way to stardom so cash on hand will be important in that respect. Finally, the BB 10 launch, it must continue to get the juices flowing and so far they are doing a heck of a job at that! I also want them to get pre-orders out there across more carriers. I'm waiting to pre-order mine and can't. Finally, RIM needs to get the focus back on BB 10 and away from YOY comparisons with last years numbers, who really cares about them??? The media does, and they will be all over the drops in comparitive numbers.

i dont get the whole pre-order thing.
ordering (and putting a deposit down more to it) a device which you dont know the (full) spec of, or its full capabilites kinda doesnt make sense to me. then add that no on or off contract pricing has been given by anyone just makes it even weirder.

I get that the pre-orders on rogers right now are refundable and such, but at the end of the day your giving them your money to hold for 44 days minimum, so they get lots of interest from the cash and you dont.

you`d prob make more money that way, and yes its only a few of your pennies, but add everyones up and it`ll soon get to a reasonable ammount for having to do nothing other than make a pre order page lol.

I don't know what it is going to cost my billing cycle is the 10th. We normally get the bill by the 14th or so and it is not due until the 7th of Feb. So I should have the device prior to paying the $40.

I think it is more to gauge the demand of the device so that they can manage supply better. As much as we believe that it will be a successful launch, they do not want to order more than necessary or they do not want to turn anyone away if they order too little. Remember what Kevin went through trying to track down a Lumia 920.

oh i completely agreee that pre ordering a device makes sense from a time situation, obviously as long as delivery beats in store stocks.

and yes, i`ll happily pre-order, but not until i know what im getting. im not about to pre-order something (well, i cant by me anyways) that i have no idea what it will cost me. granted us on this site know for the most part the abilities and look of the L series, but id never put my name down for a financial agreement without cold hard numbers.

As soon as my carrier offers pre-orders WITH a pricing structure, then i`ll be all over it like a cheap suit, but until that point i cant. and lets be fair, if apple put a pre-order up now for the iphone5s with no specs or price, we`d be saying EXACTLY the same thing.

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