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27 June 2017

Trump's Evil Empire?

Neocons probably are the only people on Earth complaining that President Trump is too diplomatic. Michael Gerson in particular longs for the days of President Reagan, whose 1983 "Evil Empire" speech against the Soviet bloc reportedly inspired liberal dissidents around the world. Trump, Gerson laments, offers little aid or comfort to today's dissidents because he's more interested in currying favor with their oppressors. Gerson finds Trump's direction dangerous not only because of the President's supposed "personal fascination with authoritarianism," but because it represents an abandonment of "soft power — the superiority of a spiritual ideal of freedom to a
materialistic vision of historical forces — that allowed the Cold War to
be won." Having written that, Gerson can't really be taken seriously, but his column reminds us of a point of convergence between neocons and neoliberals in the Democratic party, among whom must be included Presidents Clinton and Obama, as well as Hillary Clinton. Whatever their differences over American domestic policy, all these neos appear to agree on a theory of international order from which Trump allegedly dissents.

According to Gerson, Trump's "simplistic" foreign policy "assumes that the current order in
oppressive countries can be indefinitely preserved — as long as it is
not destabilized by meddling outsiders." Neos like Gerson believe to the contrary that "the instability of oppressive governments emerges from within," and that international indifference to sovereign oppression eventually destabilizes the international community as a whole.

[Oppressive governments] prevent the diffusion of choice and
power, which is the source of economic and social success in the modern
world. Monopolizing power encourages cronyism, corruption, resentment
and discontent. Strongmen can succeed for a time by feeding hatred of
enemies, real and imagined. But this is the path of arrogance,
mediocrity and insurrection. In such
societies, a few eyes and mouths open — often resulting in imprisonment
or house arrest. These are the dissidents whom Trump seems intent on
betraying and discouraging. The message is thereby sent that the United
States values the good opinion of strongmen more than the dignity and
liberty of the people they rule. This is resented, and remembered.

In the Middle East context that most interests Gerson -- the column criticizes Trump for supporting the Egyptian government that took power after the Muslim Brotherhood was overthrown by a coup d'etat -- this theory helps account for the rise of al-Qaeda and explains its strategy of attacking the U.S. for propping up oppressive regimes in the region. In the more specific context of Syria, Gerson incorporates what I've called the Obama Doctrine while implicitly criticizing Obama himself for his limited application of the doctrine. It was Obama's own opinion that Syria's tyranny was the necessary and sufficient cause of the uprisings against Bashar al-Assad. Gerson clearly agrees with that assessment, but thinks that the U.S. had a strategic responsibility, which Obama largely failed to live up to, to shore up Syria's liberal democratic opposition with words if not also with deeds. Gerson's column appears as the Trump administration is again threatening to attack Syria over the use of chemical weapons, over the opposition of his supposed authoritarian buddies in Russia, so what exactly Trump is doing wrong? His, apparently, is a sin of omission. He is thought either incapable or unwilling to articulate a utopian vision of a liberal democratic (much less secular) world order built with U.S. support. Gerson fears instead that Trump would sacrifice the liberal democratic aspirations of millions of people around the world to the more self-interested objectives of his war on terror, but also fears that the sacrifice will be in vain, as he predicts implicitly that thwarted reformers will continue to lash out at America, whether they take power eventually or not.

Gerson acknowledges that "The United States must find common interests on a daily basis with
governments that it finds oppressive and unjust." At the same time, he insists that "it is also in our
national interest to hold up an ideal that speaks to current dissidents
and future leaders — who are often one and the same." In other words, if the U.S. doesn't stand up for liberal democracy against tyranny, tyrants will only be replaced by radicals who will most likely end up tyrants themselves and enemies of the U.S. While Donald Trump may not be the smartest guy in any room, I'd bet that he's never fallen for the neo idea that democracies never fight each other, much less the idea that ideas won the Cold War. His career as an international businessman probably has immunized him to dreams of global harmony while reinforcing the idea that competition is eternal. He probably doesn't stake American power on our being on the "right side of history" or any similar idea. That may be why his foreign policy has baffled most observers so far. It seems to have more to do with tests of will or strength than with promoting American ideals, while Trump may be learning on the job what American interests actually are. Only gradually will Trump, his diplomatic corps and his military advisers show whether they mean to interact with other nations, or the international community as a whole, any differently than their neo predecessors have. So far, the international community, with some isolated exceptions flattered by the President, doesn't like what they've seen, but we may not really have seen anything yet. For the moment Trump is stepping into to battles started by his predecessors. The real test of his foreign policy may be whether or not he starts something of his own.

1 comment:

And yet nothing changed. The soviet bloc fell, but Russia is still around. Those liberal dissidents apparently didn't maintain their inspiration for very long. Or they were successful, but simply replace who was in power, rather than changing the power structure in any meaningful way. As typical, neo-cons aren't really interested in change, only in changing who is the boss.