Whatever the outcome of Joe Lieberman's Connecticut Senate primary one week from today, in all likelihood, the Democratic Party's chances of taking control of the House will depend on convincing the American people that they have a better way forward in Iraq.

Yesterday's letter issued by 12 senior Democrats -- including both Leaders -- adds no specifics about how many troops should be withdrawn or how rapidly. But the Democrats' missive to President Bush garnered lots of positive print coverage this morning, in which they urged him to begin withdrawing U.S. troops by the end of the year. And it just might represent some minority party cohesion.

It is a mortal lock that by Election Day, a majority of the American people (and the vast majority of the Old Media) will believe that the country is on the wrong track, that the war in Iraq is not going well, and that the Bush White House has made more than a few mistakes.

What is a less certain bet is that Nancy Pelosi and Harry Reid can capture the energy behind those views, add a healthy dose of optimism about how tomorrow will be better than today if Democrats control Congress, and organize, organize, organize.

But with Castro ceding power, the Middle East on fire, Iraq a killing field, and (did we mention?) the wrong track number sky high, Ken Mehlman will tell you: Stay the Course. PelosiReid will tell you: America needs a New Direction.

Conclusion: if the 2006 midterm elections are held on paper, Democrats will take the House.

(Note: at this time, there are no plans to hold the midterms on paper.)

And/but then there is the culture war, whose political benefits seem to benefit the two warring sides unequally.

Less than a year after the Kansas State Board of Education adopted rules for teaching science at odds with Charles Darwin's theory about evolution, three incumbent Republican conservatives and the political heir to a fourth are facing primary election challenges today that could result in a reversal of state science standards.

After a busy day on the beaches of Miami, President Bush is expected to get good marks when he undergoes his annual physical today. The 60-year-old Bush choppered to Bethesda's National Naval Medical Center this morning, arriving at 8:00 am ET. He's scheduled to arrive back at the White House by 1:35 pm ET.

In his first speech since leaving Goldman Sachs to take his current job as Treasury Secretary, Henry Paulson delivers an 11:15 am ET address on the economy at Columbia University. The speech is sandwiched between two other stops: in the morning he tours the New York Stock Exchange, and at the end of the day he rings the closing bell on the NASDAQ.

While the House is in recess until Sept. 6, a final vote is expected as the Senate nears approval on an offshore oil and gas drilling bill. The bill would open more than 8 million acres in the Gulf of Mexico to oil and gas drilling. More from the New York Times: LINK

Former President Clinton is in Los Angeles today raising money for Phil Angelides, the Democrat running against Gov. Arnold Schwarzeneggeer (R-CA).

Back in Washington, Sen. Hillary Clinton (D-NY) attends a 10:00 am ET HELP Committee hearing and business meeting to examine the nominations of Andrew von Eschenbach fo Texas to be Commissioner of HHS Commissioner of Food and Drugs and Paul DeCamp of Virginia to be Department of Labor Wage and Hour Division Administrator, to be followed by business meetings to consider pending nominations in Dirksen 430.

Sen. Clinton attends a 2:30 pm ET EPW Fisheries, Wildlife and Water Subcommittee Hearing to examine interpreting the effect of the U.S. Supreme Court's recent decision in the joint cases of Rapanos vs. United States and Carabeli vs. United States Army Corps of Engineers on "The Waters of the United States" in Dirksen 406.

The US Chamber of Commerce announces its "vote for Business Bandwagon," a month-long voter-education bus tour, at 10:45 am ET.

Reps. Chris Smith (R-NJ) and Frank Wolf (R-VA) hold a news conference in the nation's capital concerning the Darfur genocide and their hope to have a special envoy to Sudan appointed.

As discussions on immigration continue, the Cato Institute hosts a presentation themed "Comprehensive Immigration Reform for a Growing Economy" with Commerce Secretary Carlos Gutierrez at 12:00 pm ET. Meanwhile, the National Hispanic Leadership Agenda releases its Latino Leadership Report and hosts a news conference at the National Council for La Raza Headquarters at 11:00 am ET.

The Young America's Foundation's annual convention rolls forward with addresses from New York Times columnist David Brooks and former Secretary of State Alexander Haig at GW's Marvin Center.

Politics of Iraq:

The Washington Post's Charles Babington and Jim VandeHei report that "senior Republicans quickly denounced the document as defeatist" while Noting that this rebuttal came "as a number of GOP lawmakers are joining Democrats in criticizing the war's progress." LINK

"Democratic Leaders Ask Bush to Redeploy Troops in Iraq," New York Times LINK

Hastert spokesguy Ron Bonjean reacted to the Democratic missive thusly: "The Democratic leadership continues to demand that American soldiers end their mission and wave the white flag of surrender to the terrorists that we are. fighting in Iraq. In fact, 42 Democrats defied their leadership and stood with House Republicans last month to support both our troops and their mission in Iraq as part of winning the Global War on Terror. The Democratic leadership has failed to understand the sacrifices made by our troops on foreign shores are keeping the battle against the terrorists out of our cities and neighborhoods. Our soldiers know that by going into harms way, they are keeping American freedoms safe."

"Running Silent," Hartford Courant reports that Sen. Joe Lieberman (D-CT) and his campaign staff refuse to discuss the circulation of petitions supporting a third-party bid should he lose the Democratic primary next week. LINK

"Big Names in a Big Race," Hartford Courant reports that Lieberman and Lamont have both stepped up their campaigns with stumps at inner-city Churches followed by appearances with prominent Washington Democrats as the primary draws near. LINK

"Bush Baggage Could Cost Lieberman Primary," Los Angeles Times, in which Ron Brownstein takes leave from his book leave to weigh in. LINK

"A Primary Lesson for Lieberman," the Washington Post's E.J. Dionne on a Democratic Party that "desperately wants to go on offense," saying that Lieberman has to back down on his war stance to win the primary, which, The Note would guess, his friends have been telling him for weeks. LINK

"Maximum cynicism: The House minimum-wage plan is a poison pill," Pittsburgh Post-Gazette believes it is counterproductive to raise the minimum wage while cutting the estate tax. LINK

Plan B:

"Plan B Pill May Be Approaching Wider Release," Los Angeles Times on religious conservatives peeved by the FDA proposal of the over-the-counter "morning after" pill.
LINK

Politics of immigration:

"Bush criticized from unusual corner," Dallas Morning News on Sen. John Cornyn's (R-TX) New Direction Quote of the Day in the making: "The president's got some proving himself to do when it comes to his commitment."
LINK

"Colorado Governor Signs Immigration Law," New York Times on the "tough package of immigration laws" that could "force 1 million people receiving state and federal benefits to prove they are legal U.S. residents." LINK

"Vets set sights on Murtha," Tribune Democrat on what Bill Burton calls the "swiftboating" of Rep. John Murtha (D-PA).
LINK

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"They plan to hold a national rally in Johnstown in October 'to show their outrage at John Murtha over what he is saying about our troops,' state chairman and former Johnstowner Mark Parker said in a release. Details of the rally will be outlined at a news conference at 11 a.m. Thursday in front of Murtha's office at 647 Main St."