Charts of the week: Federal debt projections, the “elephant chart,” and chronic absenteeism

RECENT DEBT-GDP RATIO PROJECTIONS LOOK WORSE THAN LAST YEAR’S

In their new report, “The federal budget outlook: Even crazier after all these years,” experts from the Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center analyze how last year’s Tax Cuts and Jobs Act and 2018 spending bills have affected the medium-term federal budget outlook. Citing a recent report from the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), they note that the debt-GDP ratio projection has climbed from 91.2 percent last June to 94.5 percent in 2027.

REVISITING THE “ELEPHANT CHART” OF INEQUALITY

In a new post for Future Development blog, Homi Kharas, interim vice president and director of the Global Economy and Development program and Brina Seidel explain the history behind an iconic elephant-shaped chart that depicted changes to the global income distribution. In an effort to assess whether up-to-data would still yield this “elephant” shape, the authors layered the original chart in red with an updated version in blue:

Kharas and Seidel write that “while elements of the original story have certainly been confirmed by other data in other contexts, the elephant shape itself may be an overburdened and inaccurate depiction of what is really going on in the world economy.” They also offer a new methodology for the study of income distribution that accounts for changes in incomes of specific groups of people and provides more analysis on the state of global income growth.

THE YOUNGEST AND OLDEST STUDENTS TYPICALLY MISS THE MOST SCHOOL

Experts from The Hamilton Project examine the factors that contribute to chronic absenteeism—defined as missing 15 or more days of school in a school year—and provide guidance for how schools can reduce absenteeism among their students. Analyzing data from California public schools they find rates of absenteeism tend to be high in kindergarten, fall through sixth grade, and begin to rise again as students enter high school.