tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3538899571081086212017-02-08T23:49:47.097-05:00Real Hockey TalkA.J.http://www.blogger.com/profile/01875979094724954303noreply@blogger.comBlogger25125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-353889957108108621.post-74582381875063905052011-09-28T17:42:00.000-04:002011-09-28T17:42:24.723-04:00Chicago Blackhawks: Are they ready to return to championship form?The Chicago Blackhawks got off to an extremely slow start to the season last year, and it seemed that they were still hungover from their Stanley Cup victory the year before. The Hawks are looking to battle the Wings for the top spot in the Central Division and they hope to have an easier time getting into the Playoffs this time around, instead of waiting until the final week of the season to clinch a spot in the playoffs.<br /><br /><br />What Happened Last Season: &nbsp;The Blackhawks started the season off extremely sluggish. They were sitting between the seventh-thirteenth seed for most of the season, and with a late surge at the end of the season, they managed to make the Playoffs and were granted the opportunity to face the mighty Canucks in the first round. After losing the first three games, the Hawks came back and forced overtime in game 7, only to lose on a foolish clearing attempt by Chris Campoli that went right to Alex Burrows.<br /><br />While the results of the season were a bit disappointing, the play of Corey Crawford was a pleasant surprise. The Hawks after losing Niemi due to financial constraints, were placing their trust in Marty Turco. After Turco showed how inconsistent he can be in the first fifteen games of the season, the reins of the starting job were handed to Crawford and he ran with it. I am sure GM Stan Bowman is the happiest man, as he probably had no chance at landing a solid big name goaltender this season. (Although I might add, inviting Ray Emery to camp was an extremely smart backup plan, should Crawford have a sophomore slump).<br /><br />Summer Cap Space and Off-Season Needs: The biggest need for the Blackhawks this off-season, was to sign some depth forwards and defencemen. In order to accomplish that one of the big contracts on the roster needed to be cleared off the cap. Bowman did just that by trading Brian Campbell and his albatross $7 million dollar cap hit for the next five seasons to the Florida Panthers. Bowman made some solid depth moves by signing veteran Andrew Brunette and Jamal Mayers up front, and the extremely underrated Steve Montador on defence. Combined with the acquisition of Michael Frolik at the end of last season, the Hawks have gotten some solid secondary scoring and will not be forced to rely on the big guns all the time for goal scoring production.<br /><br />Stan Bowman is a very intelligent general manager. While many analysts, including myself spent a lot of time praising him for the Campbell trade, the biggest and perhaps most important that happened this off-season was trading Troy Brouwer to the Washington Capitals for a first round pick.Troy Brouwer, while being a talented player, was looking to cash in this summer on a new contract. Bowman realized that players like Brouwer are replaceable cheap on the open market, and if you can get a first round pick for him you go for it. Ultimately Brouwer was replaced with Brunette, a much more talented scorer, and provides some more veteran leadership for this young Hawks roster. Brunette also comes at approximately half a million dollars cheaper than what Brouwer ultimately signed for with the Capitals<br /><br />What the Future Holds: The Blackhawks will be a surefire playoff team for years to come, and look for them to continue challenging for the Stanley Cup on a yearly basis. They have their core of superstars (Kane, Toews, Keith, Seabrook, Sharp and Hossa) all signed through 2015, and it looks like they have found their goaltender for the future as well. If some of the depth and young players like Dave Bolland, Brian Bickell, Viktor Stalberg, Nicklas Hjalmarsson and Nick Leddy can continue to grow, this team will remain extremely dangerous in the future.<br /><br />The Hawks biggest problem last season, which contributed to their cap woes, was all of the bonuses that their players received after winning the Stanley Cup. This season, the Hawks are only on the hook for half a million dollars in bonuses, and still remain over three million dollars under the cap, look for them to add a significant piece at about the halfway point in the season if they feel that they are in Cup contention.<br /><br />What I like most about the way that Bowman has handled the cap issues facing his team is the return that he has been getting for his players. When he traded Byfuglien and Ladd in separate trades to the Thrashers (now Jets) last summer, he received a couple of first and second round picks. This year as well, he received for Brouwer a first rounder. The calculation is simple; Bowman is not looking to draft a star player with these picks. He is looking to continue to have talented depth on entry level, or cheap deals to surround his superstars. While it would be nice to draft another star, if he can continue to replace players like Bolland when their contracts get too expensive with first round talent, he will be able to support the talent he has on the roster for many years to come. Just like when Versteeg, Byfuglien, Ladd and Brouwer got too expensive to retain, they were replaced by Stalberg, Leddy, and Bickell, Bowman is accumulating talent to eventually replace these players as well, should they become too expensive in a couple of years time.<br /><br />Predictions: Without the Marty Turco experiment to start the season, the Hawks will easily make the Playoffs and as always, will be a tough team to beat in a seven game series. I have them finishing fifth in the Western Conference, barely losing to Detroit for the Central Division title.<br /><br />Hope you enjoyed! Follow me on Twitter&nbsp;<a href="http://twitter.com/#!/Realhockeytalk">http://twitter.com/#!/Realhockeytalk</a>A.J.http://www.blogger.com/profile/01875979094724954303noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-353889957108108621.post-30742085027159392022011-09-26T02:33:00.001-04:002011-09-26T02:38:55.754-04:00Carolina Hurricanes: Are they solely relying on internal growth for this season?The Carolina Hurricanes are one of the least talked about teams in the entire NHL, and have been that way ever since they transferred over from Hartford. What is interesting is that they have kept such a low profile despite being in the Cup Finals twice in the last nine seasons. Only the Red Wings, Ducks and Penguins can boast such a gaudy track record. Part of the reason for the lack of excitement surrounding the team is due to the lack of big name free agents that have been signed over the years. Historically they always have brought in solid veterans a la Brind Amour and Whitney, but always fail to show interest in the big name players. It seems that this summer's game plan was to sign all the former ex-Leafs available on the market, as they signed Thomas Kaberle, Alex Ponikarovsky and Tim Brent.<br /><br /><br />What Happened Last Year: The Carolina Hurricanes finished the season tenth in the Eastern Conference after making a push for the Playoffs towards the end of the season before finally fading in the last few games. While the Canes did not make the Playoffs, they did have a number of bright spots on their roster. The play of Jeff Skinner was absolutely remarkable, being the only player in the NHL born in 1992, not much was expected from the young Skinner, but not only he did win the Calder Trophy, he was also the youngest player in the history of hockey to appear in an NHL All-Star Game, since the the league started making two teams of All-Star players, instead of formatting the contest as the Stanley Cup winners versus the rest of the league. Together with the growth of Jamie McBain and Brandon Sutter, Canes fans have some young players to be excited for in the future.<br /><br />Summer Cap and Off-Season needs: The Hurricanes had an extremely peculiar off-season, in which I do not see how they managed to solve any of their off-season troubles. The largest weakness on what was an extremely mediocre team overall, was their lack of depth on the&nbsp;blue-line. The Canes are going to be placing a lot of hope in some of their young prospects on defence to provide them with some depth. Prospect Ryan Murphy, who the Canes were lucky to nab with the 12th pick, has a very good chance of making the team this season at the tender age of 18.<br /><br />GM Jim Rutherford took part in one of the most perplexing transactions of the summer. He signed former Bruin Thomas Kaberle to a three year deal with an average salary of $4.25 million per season. My assessment of the signing is that he paid market/ marginally above market for his services, which is fair considering he was drawing a free agent to Carolina. However what is perplexing is that he subsequently traded his best goal scoring defenceman, Joe Corvo, to the same Bruins for a late round draft pick. Joe Corvo and Thomas Kaberle are both offensive minded defenceman and the same age. However there are two key differences between Corvo and Kaberle, and both of them are what make this "swap" so perplexing. 1) Corvo is the better goal scorer. He outscored Kaberle 11-4. With Rutherford re-signing Joni Pitkanen, one of the best playmaking defenceman in hockey, it would have certainly made a lot of sense for Rutherford to keep a goal scoring defenceman instead of trading him away. 2) With the Hurricanes barely above tha cap floor it is quite obvious that they are in a financial crisis. With that in mind, it is perplexing to trade away Corvo, their top scoring defenceman who has a salary of $2 million and a cap hit of $2.25 million, only to sign Kaberle at double the amount of money. Also, it is not like Corvo was the highest paid defenceman on the Canes roster. Pitkanen (rightfully so) Bryan Allen and Tim Gleason all have higher salaries for the upcoming season and the latter two should have been the ones to be moved. If Rutherford was not able to move either of them he would have been well advised to keep Corvo and invest that $2 million in another offensive player. I would really love an explanation from Jim Rutherfod, as this sequence of events continues to baffle me a month later.<br /><br />On offence I really like what Rutherford did with his limited financial&nbsp;resources. He rightfully did not match the $18 million deal that the Canadiens gave Erik Cole, as he is one of the most injury prone players in sports. He replaced him with Alex Ponikarovsky, who despite having an awful season last year is still only a season removed from back-to-back 50 point campaigns. At $1.5 million on a one year contract, there is basically no downside to this signing. Rutherford also added former Leaf favorite Tim Brent, and will be pleased with the work ethic and penalty killing ability of his off-season signing.<br /><br />The one move that I really liked which nearly makes up (not quite actually) for the Corvo debacle is the Anthony Stewart signing. The Jets chose not to tender him a contract, thus making him an unrestricted free agent, and Rutherford nabbed him for two years at $900,000 per season. With 39 points last season and showing some flashes of star talent, pairing him up with youngsters Sutton and Skinner has the potential to create a fantastic trio for many years to come. Also, with proven talent in the family it is always worth taking the risk! <br /><br />What the Future Holds: I am not sure exactly the plan that Jim Rutherford is looking to put into place, but the team structure is not very strong by any stretch of the imagination. For a team that is sitting near the floor of the cap with team salary slightly above $49 million, it is almost crippling that $15 million is invested in superstar Eric Staal and slightly above average goalie Cam Ward. Both of these contracts are above average wage for players of their skill set (with Ward being way above&nbsp;average) and a team with an alleged internal budget these contracts are extremely restraining. I am going to go out on a limb that if the Canes will ever climb out of mediocrity, it will either be because they start spending to the cap, or that Eric Staal will be moved, as Ward's contract is simply too prohibitive. Despite the young talent on the roster, I simply do not see a significant improvement in the near future. Yet, I feel a bit nervous to count out the Canes as they always manage to overachieve.<br /><br />My Prediction: I want to say that they will be close to competing for the final playoff spot in the Eastern Conference, but with teams like Toronto, Buffalo and New York improving both internally and via acquisitions, I simply don't think they have much of a chance. I think they will end up 11th in the Conference.<br /><br />Hope you enjoyed!<br />Check out all the other teams analysis and follow on Twitter&nbsp;<a href="http://twitter.com/#!/Realhockeytalk">http://twitter.com/#!/Realhockeytalk</a>A.J.http://www.blogger.com/profile/01875979094724954303noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-353889957108108621.post-90939262417836616782011-09-22T19:23:00.002-04:002011-09-23T00:37:13.457-04:00Calgary Flames: Feaster trying a massive re-tooling job, instead of a total rebuild.The Calgary Flames have been on a downward trajectory ever since they reached the Stanley Cup Finals in 2004. The only real constant for the Flames has been the play of Jarome Iginla. After a down season by his standards in 2010, Iggy re-asserted himself as one of the best forwards in the NHL last season. As I wrote in another article a few months ago, the Flames have been stuck in mediocrity and remained up against the salary cap for the past few seasons. GM Jay Feaster did a fantastic job of lowering the cap number, while not letting go of any of his young, talented players.<br /><br />What Happened Last Season: The Calgary Flames finished about where everyone expected them to- a couple of points out of the playoffs, or as some might say, decent but not quite good enough. The most interesting aspect of the Flames season was how they got there. For the first half of the season the Flames joined fellow Canadian teams like the Oilers, Senators, and Leafs at the bottom of the league standings. At about the halfway point in the season, the Flames turned around and played hockey as if they were a perennial Stanley Cup contender. While the Flames ultimately did not make the Playoffs, there were some good things that came out of last season. Firstly, and most important as well, Iginla showed that he is still one of the best players in the league. He finished third in the NHL in goals, while playing with vastly inferior talent to all the other players in the top ten scorer. Also, the continued growth and emergence of Anton Babchuk and Mark Giordano provided assurance and the depth for the Flames on the back-end, which gave them the confidence to trade Robyn Regehr, and provide themselves with some serious salary cap relief.<br /><br />Cap Space and Off-Season Needs: The Calgary Flames biggest off-season need was simply to create cap room. My stance on success, is that if your team is currently built in a way that it cannot win the Stanley Cup then you should never be satisfied with mediocrity (which is what I predict will happen in Buffalo) and Feaster took the first necessary step to facilitate the revamping process. In order to re-sign both Curtis Glencross and Anton Babchuk, while still creating some cap room for the future, the plan was to get rid of some unnecessary contracts. The Flames at the end of the season had too many forwards that were making too much money. Nik Hagman, Matt Stajan, Ales Kotalik and Daymond Langkow were all making over three million dollars last season to essentially contribute nothing. Feaster was able to clear about ten million dollars in cap space for the upcoming season, and about $4 million for the following year. The first move that Feaster made was an old-fashioned win-win for both organizations. The Flames dealt from a position of strength by moving Robyn Regehr, one of their high profile physical defencemen, to the Buffalo Sabres on condition that Buffalo would take on Ales Kotalik's salary as well. The Sabres, behind new owner Terry Pegula, have plenty of extra cash and acquiring such a talent like Regehr fit nicely into their new expenditures strategy. Feaster temporarily replaced Regehr with Scott Hannan, and at a 1yr/$1 million deal, it looks like a bargain. While the addition of Hannan will most&nbsp;definitely&nbsp;not make the Flames a contender, it is not like they were going to contend with Regehr in the lineup, and he is a viable enough replacement that it was worth it for the cap flexibility.<br /><br />A couple of weeks ago Feaster traded the oft-injured Lankgow to the Phoenix Coyotes for the streaky Lee Stempniak. From the Flames perspective this trade has no downside. When healthy Langkow is only marginally more effective than Stempniak, yet makes more than double the amount of money in salary. Both Stempniak and Lankgow have their contracts come off the books at the end of the season, but this will give Feaster some more&nbsp;flexibility&nbsp;to make a move during the season if he wants to add a player via trade. Again love the trade, as Feaster knows this years results are essentially moot and irrelevant.<br /><br />What the Future Holds: I am going to suppose a theory here, and would love to hear your comments and opinions in the comments section below. Jay Feaster is completely aware that his team is in no position to win the Stanley Cup this season. They do not have the talent to compete with the superpowers in the league, and need a couple of other big name players if they want to really compete. Yet Feaster has chosen to revamp and retool his team instead of rebuilding it. In most cases I would disagree with him, but after seeing the cap clearing moves he did this off-season, the potential is back in Calgary for some success in the near future. At the end of this season the Flames will have 12 players under contract for a total of $41 million dollars. Assuming the cap ends up staying in the range it is at now, the Flames will&nbsp;approximately&nbsp;have $25 million to round out their roster. Although that number does not sound optimistic, I am sure Feaster has taken a look at the players that he does have under contract, and is satisfied and confident that he can significantly improve his roster next off-season.&nbsp;Among&nbsp;the ten most talented players that the Flames have on their roster, only Olli Jokinen is not under contract for next season. So while they need to fill out their roster, they have the money to spend it on some big names, because they will not be losing anyone significant off their roster. Kiprusoff, Iginla, Bowmeester, Giordano, Tanguay, Glencross, Bourque and Babchuk are all still under contract and form a solid foundation for the future. Also, let it not be forgotten that the Flames were only three points out of the Playoffs despite being one of the worst teams in the league for over half a season. Aside from Regehr that core group all still remains intact, and could be looking at a solid influx in talent next summer.<br /><br />This in many ways explains why Tanguay received a five year contract. Feaster decided to lock him up at a relatively inexpensive $3.5 million per season with the notion in mind that there is a real possibility this team can be a serious contender in 2012-2013. To put in perspective the steal that Feaster got with Tanguay, Ville Leino received a 6 yr/$27 million deal, and only yesterday R.J. Umberger signed for 5 yr/$23 million. At 5 yr/$17.5 million there is no reason not to sign him if you plan on competing in the near future, as his stats and experience both are extremely favorable to those two players that got much bigger deals.<br /><br />In many ways this plan of action goes against conventional thinking, but I think he has the right idea. Jarome Iginla and Miika Kiprusoff are not going to get any younger, and the time to win when these are your stars is now. He has adapted his strategy to his player base, and if played out correctly, Feaster may end up looking like a genius.<br /><br /><br />My Prediction: The Flames have not done much to improve for this season and will once again finish outside of the Playoffs and eleventh in the Western Conference. Despite this fall in the standings, I do not think that the future has looked better in Calgary from a salary cap perspective since the cap was instituted after the lockout.<br /><br />Hope you enjoyed!<br />Follow on Twitter&nbsp;<a href="http://twitter.com/#!/Realhockeytalk">http://twitter.com/#!/Realhockeytalk</a>A.J.http://www.blogger.com/profile/01875979094724954303noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-353889957108108621.post-13294422726176212402011-09-15T19:06:00.002-04:002011-09-22T23:34:54.464-04:00Buffalo Sabres: Darcy Regier cannot control spending after getting more money from ownership.The Buffalo Sabres have historically been one of the cheapest and poorest teams in the NHL, and were highlighted by their filing for Chapter 11 bankruptcy in 2003. Well those days appear to be over. On February 23, 2011 the Buffalo Sabres were purchased by local owner Terry Pegula with the promise that the team will remain in Buffalo, and will be competitive for many years to come. Pegula's purchase of the Sabres has created one of the largest off-season expenditures in hockey history. The jury is out on the Sabres will be any better after spending all this money, or will be the new edition of the pre-lockout New York Rangers.<br /><br /><br /><div>What happened last year: The Buffalo Sabres lost in the Game 7 of the first round of the NHL Playoffs to the Philadelphia Flyers after blowing a two goal lead in in game 6 which lead to what was a wild final game. The whole season was filled with ups and downs for the Sabres. They started off the season extremely slowly, winning only three of their first 14 games. After 35 games and the Playoffs far from sight, the Sabres lost their best scorer Derek Roy to injury for the rest of the season. Everything looked lost. Well as we know, they ended up coming back and stormed into the seventh seed in the Eastern Conference. The reason that the Sabres were able to climb back into the Playoffs was mainly due to fantastic production from some of their top offensive players. Thomas Vanek had a great bounce-back season, (and is finally earning at least 40% of his mammoth contract). Drew Stafford broke the thirty goal barrier, and was in the top five in the NHL in goals per game. Tim Connolly managed to play 68 games and had a respectable 42 points and together with the rookies Tyler Ennis and Nathan Gerbe really helped make up for the loss of Roy.<br /><br /></div><div>Small note for hockey poolies: Drew Stafford had a remarkable goal scoring campaign this past year. You might be a little skeptical drafting him believing that he was lucky based upon his 17.3% shooting percentage. However, before you pass judgement, it may be worth looking at his first two seasons in the NHL, he shot 19.4% and 15.5% respectively. While in 09-10 he scored on only 7% of shots, that may be the anomaly and the high shooting percentages the norm. He may simply be a remarkable shooter. I would look at him in a mid-late round in a pool that places high value on goals scoring.<br /><br /><br /><br />Summer needs and Cap space available: Disclaimer- This may be the first time that you read an article that did not like the moves that the Buffalo Sabres did this summer. To put it bluntly I am not impressed. The Sabres are $4 million over the salary cap, and in no way do they look like a Stanley Cup caliber team. In my opinion, and probably the opinion of most hockey analysts, the Sabres needed to upgrade their offence, especially with the loss of Tim Connolly. Well they signed Ville Leino to a whopping 6 yr/$27 million dollar deal. This contract is absolutely ridiculous. Terry Pegula and Darcy Regier should have considered making a statement on a player with a significant track record. Leino has ONE season in the NHL with over 15 points, albeit 53, and no seasons with over 20 goals. In comparison players of the same age, like Dustin Brown making $3 million, Ryan Kesler making $5 million, Mike Ribeiro $5 million, the numbers for Leino look like an absolute joke. In no way does the addition of a good third liner make this team offensively lethal.<br /><br /></div><div>Below are the statistics of two players in their best statistical seasons, and in my opinion compare extremely favorably to Ville Leino. The first two stat lines belong to Jonas Hoglund. Anyone that has been following the Leafs since the late 90s knows that these statistics are inflated by playing with Mats Sundin. Nobody ever confused Hoglund with an objectively good player, and definitely would not have received a contract of $4.5 million. Actually in 2002, the first year after these "amazing statistical" seasons Hoglund was rewarded with a whopping $1.54 million dollars! (By the way the Leafs team salary for the season was over $65 million, which is over the allotted amount of the NHL salary cap this season- there goes that justification for Regier)<br /><br />Year &nbsp; &nbsp; Team &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; GP G A PTS<br />99-00 Mapleleafs 82 29 27 56<br />00-01 Mapleleafs 82 23 26 49<br /><br /></div><div>The below stat line belongs to current Leaf Colby Armstrong. The year in reference is his rookie year that he played on a line with Sidney Crosby. Armstrong was on pace for a 65 point season. Well as we all know, after being traded to the Thrashers, he resettled into his realistic role- a third line player that should make maximum $3 million (which some might consider high) and contribute as an above average third line player.</div><div>Year &nbsp; &nbsp;Team &nbsp; GP &nbsp;G &nbsp;A &nbsp;PTS<br />05-06 Penguins 47 16 &nbsp;24 40</div><div>Sorry for the tangent but you see my point? Ville Leino played with some great players on the Flyers, and unless he plays with Vanek and Roy, he will see his numbers drop back down to a more realistic total. With the loss of Connolly the Sabres will have a harder time scoring goals then people are anticipating, unless Brad Boyes can return to the 40 goal scorer that he was at one point in his career. <br /><br />To be fair to Regier he did make some savvy trades and took full advantage of Pegula's open pockets. The Calgary Flames needed to free up some money if they had any interest in trying to get creative and improve their team. (I noted this months before the trade <a href="http://realfantasyhockey.blogspot.com/2011/05/calgary-flames-looking-lot-like-2007.html">http://realfantasyhockey.blogspot.com/2011/05/calgary-flames-looking-lot-like-2007.html</a>) He was willing to take the Kotalik contract off of Feaster's hands together with receiving Regehr and a second round pick, while giving up only depth defenceman Chris Butler. Savvy move for the high spending Sabres.</div><div>The other big signing this summer was snatching Christian Ehrhoff from the Vancouver Canucks. While the average salary of $4 million is very manageable, the length of the contract is a bit excessive. Ehrhoff will be 39 years old when the contract is over, and while he will only make $1 million per season in each of the final three years, the cap hit remains at $4 million. Unless Ehrhoff waives his no movement clause, they will not be able to place him in the minors should his career flounder. Risky move but it may pay off for the Sabres.<br /><br />The final big news in the Sabres summer was announced only today. Tyler Myers was re-signed to a 7 yr/$38.5 million contract. The contract does not kick in until the end of this season, the final year of his entry level deal. This is an extremely expensive high risk deal for the Sabres, and in many ways provides the sort of dilemma that Brian Burke may be facing in his contract negotiations with Schenn. (I think the Myers contract was very much influenced by Tavares deal that he signed yesterday).<br /><br />The Myers contract includes the first three seasons of his unrestricted free agency. The reason I do not like this signing is quite simple. If you would sign Myers for the final four seasons of his restricted free agency, you could get him signed in the range of $4.5 million per. Less than $4 million the first two seasons and about $5 million for the last two seasons. This would equal a total of 4 yr/ $18 million. Now the calculation continues as follows. What would Myers fetch on the open market as an unrestricted free agency? Let's assume that he will be looking at Shea Weber/ Zdeno Chara money (which is probably his peak potential) he would be looking at a contract in the range of $7 million for three seasons, for a total of $21 million. The sum of $18 million and $21 million would equal $39 million per season, or half a million in savings. Even if I am being conservative and I am under calculating by 10% this would still only equal savings of about $4 million over seven seasons. The risk of having a player with only two years of NHL experience, and playing a high risk style game is not worth 10% savings in contract.<br /><br />What the future holds: Well the Sabres have a lot of players in long term contract. Ehrhoff, Myers, Vanek, Stafford, Ryan Miller, Andrej Sekera, Gerbe and Leino are all in Buffalo for at least the next three seasons. There are four key players that are unrestricted free agents following the season. Brad Boyes, Jochen Hecht, Paul Gaustad, and Ales Kotalik. While the total value of these four contracts is $13.5 million, one of these players is going to be starting the season in the AHL, as the Sabres are $4 million above the cap. Essentially the Sabres will have about $9 million dollars in cap space for next season to replace these players. Hecht and Kotalik will either take significant pay cut to approxiamtely the $1.75 million range, Gaustad would remain at about $2.5 million, and Boyes is the real wild card. If he has another fantastic season, (I think he will) then he is looking for another contract in the $4 -$4.5 miliion dollar range. In other words there is not much room for growth for the Sabres in the next five years. This is the team they are going to have, unless they make some trades, for the foreseeable future. All of the additional money that the Sabres might save in the next two years will need to be pumped into Jason Pominville and Derek Roy. The lack of ability to improve in future off-seasons via the free agent market is my biggest issue with the way Darcy Regier has handled the extra money ownership has given him.</div><div>My Prediction: This team definitely has enough talent to remain a playoff team assuming they can stay healthy. One variable I did not focus on is the unbelievable talent that they have in goal. Ryan Miller on his own can push this team over the top and into the Playoff picture. I think they are going to finish 6th in the Eastern Conference.</div><div>Hope you enjoyed! Check out the other team analysis!</div><div><a href="http://twitter.com/#!/Realhockeytalk">http://twitter.com/#!/Realhockeytalk</a></div>A.J.http://www.blogger.com/profile/01875979094724954303noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-353889957108108621.post-62646272609467476712011-09-13T00:43:00.000-04:002011-09-13T00:43:24.178-04:00Boston Bruins: Do they have what it takes to repeat?After months of celebrating, and Zdeno Chara buying $100,000 bottles of champagne, it is time for the Boston Bruins to prepare for another&nbsp;grueling&nbsp;season, and attempt to become the first team to repeat as Stanley Cup champions since the 97-98 Red Wings. With the unfortunate news that Marc Savard will not play again this season and possibly for the rest of his career, let's see if the Bruins are able to come back and win another one for him. On a side note, I think it was extremely classy of GM Peter Chiarelli to publicly state that the team will petition to have Savard's name on the Cup, and highlights the respect that he has from his fellow teammates.<br /><br />What happened last season: Champs! On the back of Tim Thomas, the Boston Bruins won the Stanley Cup for the first time since the Bobby Orr era. Thomas this past season had the best save percentage since the stat started being tracked in 1983. What was so remarkable about their Cup victory was the resiliency that they showed at so many different times during the Playoffs. In the first round against the Canadiens, the Bruins came back in the series after losing the first two games on their own home ice. In the second round, the Flyers goalies ended up beating themselves, so I guess that doesn't count. In the third round- or the round I would like to call, "the round of Tyler Seguin becoming a superstar after two great games," the Bruins defeated a strong and speedy Lightning team, despite a relatively poor series from Tim Thomas, and went on to face the Canucks in the finals. That resiliency continued in the finals, when the Bruins responded after losing the first two games, to come back and win the series, (or maybe Luongo lost the series) in seven games.<br /><br />While the unbelievable play of Tim Thomas was the main reason that the Bruins won the Stanley Cup, people often forget that Bruins were the deepest team in the Eastern Conference and possibly the entire league. While the Canucks and Lightning were coming at them with forty goal scorers, the Bruins responded by having three lines of players that are capable of scoring fifty points. The top point-getter on the Bruins had only 62 points on the season, despite the collective team being fifth in the NHL, in the goals scored category.<br /><br />Another impressive aspect of their Stanley Cup run, was the gut showed by GM Peter Chiarelli, to not only trade some top prospects and picks, but to take key players like Blake Wheeler and Brad Stuart off the current roster, with the foresight to realize the importance that &nbsp;players with the speed and defensive ability, like Chris Kelly and Rich Peverley can offer. As he does every season, Chiarelli continues to make slight improvements to his roster, ensuring the best results from his teams.<br /><br />Summer Cap Space Available and Team Needs: For those that watched the Playoffs at all, it was more than obvious that the Thomas Kaberle experiment for the most part failed. He had some good games in the Lightning and Canucks series', but by that point was already relegated to the third defensive pairing. So Chiarelli, in what I consider to be a swallowing pride move, chose to let him walk at the end of the season instead of re-signing the offensive defenceman at $4.25 million.<br /><br />Immediately after Kaberle was signed for 3yrs/$12.75 million by the Carolina Hurricanes, Chiarelli traded a fourth round pick to the Huricanes for Joe Corvo. In many ways Corvo is the better option than Kaberle for the Bruins. The two of them essentially wash out offensively, with Kaberle being the better passer, but Corvo actually using a shot,&nbsp;the main difference that lies between the two of them is their contracts. While Kaberle is locked in at $4.25 million for the next three years, Corvo is on the last year of his deal that pays him $2.25 million.<br /><br />This flexibility is exactly what the Bruins and Chiarelli need to ensure that they can be continue to be one of the top teams in the Eastern Conference. Trading for Corvo carries with it no downside, since at the worst he is re-signable at the same cap number as Kaberle, and most likely can be re-signed for cheaper.<br /><br />The second keynote this summer on Chiarelli's agenda was to re-sign Brad Marchand. To this point, there is no deal in place and rumours are beginning to circulate that the Bruins are not ready to meet Marchand's contract demands, and are exploring different trade options. The Marchand situation is really tricky. James Van Riemsdyk has set the market incredibly high by signing his six year deal with an average salary of $4.25 million. From Marchand's perspective, he believes that he should probably be receiving at least the same package, while I am sure that Chiarelli is trying to shrink the size of the contract both in term and dollar. I personally do not see this ending well, and I envision a trade happening down the road. Both sides do not have much of a reason to budge from their demands. The Bruins are extremely deep at centre, with Seguin relegated to the bench last season, and Marchand has already got his name on the Cup , and may now be looking for the few extra dollars that are available to him on the market. However if Chiarelli really wants him re-signed, with a little over $7 million dollars in cap space, (before the Marc Savard contract situation which is a conversation for a whole other time) he can easily retain him.<br /><br />What the future holds: As mentioned above, the salary cap&nbsp;flexibility that Chiarelli has in the future is vital to ensuring the Bruins are a top team for many years to come. One problem that is sort of unique to the Bruins is their star goalie issue. The Bruins have two star goalies, and both Tuuka Rask and Tim Thomas would be the starting goaltender on most teams in the NHL. This poses an issue for the Bruins in that, next year when Rask becomes a free agent, they will need to keep him, despite having Tim Thomas still under contract-and it will be expensive. Without knowing how long the acrobatic 37-year old will be able to continue to perform at such a high level, they can ill-afford to let Rask go. Look for Rask to sign to a long term deal, at&nbsp;approximately&nbsp;an average salary of $4 million dollars.<br /><br />The added&nbsp;flexibility&nbsp;next season will also help ensure that&nbsp;David&nbsp;Krecji can be compensated&nbsp;appropriately&nbsp;at the end of the season. While he is still an RFA at seasons end, look for him to get a significant hike in salary to approximately the $5 million dollar range. Things do not get easier the following summer, as Tyler Seguin (RFA), Milan Lucic (RFA) and Nathan Horton (UFA) will all be up for new contracts, and a significant hike in salary will be necessary to keep all of them.<br /><br />Essentially Chiarelli could not keep Kaberle if he wanted to keep all his stars in the future, and he has Corvo in the interim until young defensive stars like Adam McQuaid and newly drafted Dougie Hamilton are ready to take their games to the next step.<br /><br />Prediction: The Bruins will finish second in the Eastern Conference, and will once again be a force to reckon with, as I predict they will be for many years to come- especially with Peter Chiarelli at the helm hopefully (for their sake) until he decides to retire. &nbsp;<br /><br />Hope you enjoyed, and check out all the other content!<br />Follow on Twitter&nbsp;<a href="http://twitter.com/#!/Realhockeytalk">http://twitter.com/#!/Realhockeytalk</a>A.J.http://www.blogger.com/profile/01875979094724954303noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-353889957108108621.post-71166175601860474332011-09-08T19:10:00.005-04:002011-09-09T02:40:33.008-04:00Anaheim Ducks: Did they forget that there is an off-season or is management simply naive.I have been intending to publish my pre-season predictions, and evaluation of every teams summer activity, for quite some time now. However, with the Anaheim Ducks being at the top of the alphabeitcal order, I have been holding off with the hope that their general manager Bob Murray, would come through and actually help improve the weaknesses in his team. Yet, he continues to place all of his eggs in the Teemu Selanne basket, and is holding himself and his team hostage.<br /><div><br /></div><div>What happened last year: The Ducks last year, on the back of Corey Perry's remarkable end to the season, ended up as the fourth seed, in the uber competitive Western Conference. The Ducks ended up losing in six games to the Nashville Predators in the first round. It is difficult to assess the actual season for the Ducks due to the nature of the dichotomy of the performances of their top players. Of their top six players, three overperformed, (Perry, Selanne, and Visnovsky) two&nbsp;under-performed&nbsp;due to injuries (Ryan Getzlaf, Jonas Hiller), and Bobby Ryan played just about as well as was expected from him. Truth be told the overperformances of Visnovsky, Perry and Selanne were essentially unprecedented. Corey Perry's numbers are inflated by the best 16 game goal scoring streak of the decade (19 goals), Visnovsky should have won the Norris trophy, I challenge anyone in the comments section to deny this, and Teemu Selanne had the best offensive season for a player over forty in the last 30 years. Not only was it the best, it was the best by far. His 80 points were in only 73 games, and the second highest total was Mark Messier in 2000-01, &nbsp;67 points and he needed 82 games to do it. At the same time, not having Hiller for the end of the season and Playoffs, and missing Getzlaf for a significant amount of time, in some ways offsets the skewed numbers that this season represents in assessing the Ducks long term expected performance.<br /><br /></div><div><br /></div><div>Summer Cap Space Available and Team Needs: You know that classic cliche of, "our goal here is to win a championship" that every general manager preaches? GM Murray may be the first person in a team management position that does not seem to abide by this wishful sentiment. He simply in a Seinfeldesque fashion did nothing this summer, and has his sights set on re-signing Selanne, which will at best make his team as good as it was last season. After spending 96% of the cap last season, he has reduced his teams spending to approximately 85% percent of the cap, albeit before his hopeful re-signing of Teemu Selanne. The same weaknesses that he had on his team last season exist this season as well, and the problem has only become worse. The biggest problem with the structure of the Ducks is, as I have pointed out in previous posts, their dearth of depth talent. What I mean by "their problem has only become worse", is that while last year they had a below average second line and a horrible third line, this year as Saku Koivu and Jason Blake continue to get older and slow down, they will provide less and less secondary scoring. Murray needed to address this issue in the summer, and simply failed to do it. He has over ten million dollars available under the salary cap, and has only one roster spot remaining on the roster.&nbsp;</div><div><br /></div><div>To be fair, giving up a second round pick for Andrew Cogliano was a very intelligent and savvy trade. Cogliano was slowly losing ice time and his leadership role with the Oilers, and with a change of scenery can quite possibly develop into the solid second line forward that everyone expected from him when he entered the NHL. Then again, while this was a solid addition, the second biggest addition that Murray made for his team was signing Mark Bell, yes Leafs fans the same Mark Bell that was thrown into the Vesa Toskala trade all those years ago.<br /><br />Murray seemingly did not get the message that general managers are starting to place a premium on solid second and third line players, and will continue to rely heavily on his top end stars.<br /><br /><br />What the future holds: The Ducks have no question some of the top end talent in hockey. Up front, they are lead by Getzlaf, Perry, Ryan and hopefully Selanne. Their defence corps has one of the highest ceilings in all of hockey, dependent on the growth of youngsters Cam Fowler and Lucas Sbisa. In goal, the Ducks are set as long as Jonas Hiller can come back healthy and fully returned to form. Dan Ellis is more than an adequate backup and as always is the case with the Ducks, goaltending will not be their downfall. However, due to their general managers inactivity in the free agent market, they will stumble and remain a mediocre team. So while Murray has shown extreme loyalty to his longtime star, he has hurt the short-term prospects of his team.<br /><br /><br />&nbsp;In the long-term, things are looking extremely interesting for the Ducks. After this season, Koivu, Jason Blake and Francois Beauchemin will all have their expensive salaries off the books. This will free up over ten million additional dollars, assuming the salary cap does not change. I say in addition, because there will be at least five million dollars in funds available from this season, as Selanne is going to sign in the five million dollar range on a one year deal, and the Ducks have so far only spent $54 million out of the $64 million cap. Seems like with all that space, Murray's strategy may be to spend all that money next season right? Wrong. The following &nbsp;off-season 2013-2014, is going to be a defining year in the future of the franchise. Getzlaf, Perry, Visnovksy, Fowler and Lydman are all going to be free agents, and at least Fowler, Getzlaf and Perry will be looking for significant raises. While the raises for Getzlaf and Perry will probably be in the $2 million dollar range, Fowler may be looking at a significant raise of approximately $3.5 million. It is too much of a risk to invest heavy money in the summer of 2013, if you are going to possibly lose these stars in the following off-season.<br /><br />My Prediction: The Ducks will need to rely heavily on the growth of some of their prospects if they would like to match last season's success. Assuming Selanne re-signs their bottom six forwards are: Cogliano, Dan Sexton, Matt Beleskey, George Parros, Brandon McMillan, and Nick Bonino, or in other words essentially minor leaguers. The Ducks will finish 7th in the West, once again overachieving on the backs of their superstars. <br /><br />Hope you enjoyed, be sure to check back in as I continue my team-by-team analysis.<br />Follow on twitter-&nbsp;<a href="http://twitter.com/#!/Realhockeytalk">http://twitter.com/#!/Realhockeytalk</a></div>A.J.http://www.blogger.com/profile/01875979094724954303noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-353889957108108621.post-56791732022069978972011-09-04T03:27:00.008-04:002011-09-04T03:43:37.340-04:00A transcript: What is Luke Schenn's value?<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span><br />I would just like to take a moment as a longtime Leafs fan to wish my condolences to the Belak family. We all remember the courageous effort that Wade displayed every time he stepped on the ice. His dedication to his teammates was always truly remarkable, and he will be missed. Even though I never had the opportunity to speak with him, he was one of the players that I have always had the utmost respect for, and have only heard wonderful things from people that knew him better. The family should only know happiness in the future.<br /><br /><br /><br />Don Meehan and Brian Burke negotiating Luke Schenn contract September 3, 2011:<br /><br /><br />BB: Sit down Don, let's get this over with, but I am going to let you know one thing, I will no longer be held hostage by Drew Doughty setting the market insanely high. This has gone on long enough. I would like to lock up Luke long-term, can we finally just sit down and agree on a number?<br /><br /><br />DM: That's fine Burkie. I no longer need to wait for Doughty's contractual issues to be settled, I am more than willing to look at the "very fair" value that John Van Riemsdyk received from the Flyers as a guideline for what my client Luke should be looking at. JVR signed for six years at an average of 4.25 million per season. That contract takes away the first two years of JVR's unrestricted free agency. Is that how long you want to have Schenn locked up for? My client has played three seasons in the NHL already, so as per the CBA adjustment in 2008, he needs to play only four more seasons until unrestricted free agency. A six year deal will buy out the first two years of his UFA status despite him not being 27 at the beginning of the 2015-16 season.<br /><br />JVR received $4.25 million with nothing but the hopes of progress. In his first two seasons in the league he has averaged 18 goals and 37 points. If he warranted a contract like that, then my client Luke, who plays a premium position, and lead all defencemen in hits, deserves a a contract of at least $5 million per season.<br /><br /><br />BB: Don, as much as I respect your ability to twist and construe anything to provide your client with as much money as you can, don't look at me straight in the eye and tell me you actually believe the crap you are saying right now. The reason why JVR got that deal has nothing to do with how he played in the regular season, it is a combination of his remarkable playoff performance, and the fact that Paul Holmgren has shown himself to be completely blinded by the future of his team that he forgets to live in the present. The day that I give a 9yr/$50 million dollar deal to a goalie, is the day that I will be willing to concede to you that I will give a 21- year old defenceman the kind of money you claim he is worth. Besides if you want to take a Holmgren contract that he handed out to a young player, would you like to compare Schenn to Claude Giroux's annual $3.75 million dollar deal, it makes Schenn look like a $2.5 million dollar player.<br /><br /><br />DM: Burke you are being completely unfair, Giroux contract is only for three years and does not take away any years of unrestricted free agency. If you would like to structure Schenn's contract like that, we will obviously be willing to discuss a lower cap number- albeit not the $2.5 million that you arbitrarily made up.<br /><br />However let's forget comparing forwards and defencemen, with 180 full-time defencemen in the league I am sure we can find comparable contracts. This week the Blue Jackets signed Fedor Tyutin to a 6yr/$27 million contract. I think Schenn compares positively to Tyutin. He has double the amount of hits and blocked shots, and while Tyutin's point totals were a little bit higher, that can be attributed to him seeing approximately 2 minutes more PP time per game. Also, if I may add, Schenn has improved on his point totals every season.<br /><br /><br />BB: Stop acting like your client is irreplaceable. I do not need to sign him into the first few years of his free agency, I am perfectly happy with a four year deal. As for Tyutin, he is a solid player that Columbus could not afford to lose. To get people to play in Columbus you need to pay a bit of a premium. Also, stop comparing Schenn to players in a different age class, or position, there are plenty of players at his position and age group to compare him to. Karl Alzner signed with the Capitals for 2 yr/ $1.29 million per season. I am not lowballing you here, just telling you that 22 year old defencemen who play 20 minutes a night, and have not shown all that much offensive flair do not make all that much money.<br /><br /><br />DM: I refuse to compare my client to players that have only played one season in the NHL, and also took a hometown discount to play for a Cup contender.<br /><br /><br />BB: Fair enough, I wasn't trying to compare the two, just wanted to illustrate a point. Let's cut to the chase, Erik Johnson in 2010, signed for 2 yr/$2.6 million per season. This is a contract number I would like to work with. I know that your first claim is going to be that the cap went up from $59.4 million in 2010, the year Johnson signed, to $64 million this season. I am going to calculate the % difference from year to year. A salary in 2010, that was $2.6 million represents a $2.8 million salary at the current number the NHL employs. What I like about this deal is that Johnson does not become a free agent at the end of the contract, rather he retains his RFA status. So Don, if you feel your client will continue to improve and can get significantly more money down the road, would you agree to a 2 year offer at $2.7 million per season? I think we can both agree that your client is not as good as Erik Johnson.<br /><br /><br />DM: Absolutely not, Luke is not interested in doing this every single season. We want a deal that will make Luke feel comfortable with his team, and continue to retain his job security with the Toronto Maple Leafs.<br /><br /><br />BB: Ok, that seems fair. I'll increase the offer to a five year deal,, which will eat into one year of UFA status, with an annual salary increase of fifteen percent for years two, three and four, and a twenty percent increase for year five. The reason for this increase is to properly compensate for the growth in the salary cap, as well as for the expected growth in Luke's game and subsequently his value.<br /><br />Breakdown is as following:<br />2011-12: $2.7 million<br />2012-13: $3.1 million<br />2013-14: $3.57 million<br />2014-15: $4.1 million<br />2015-16: $4.9 million<br /><br />Annualized Cap Hit= $3.674 million.<br /><br /><br />DM: Is that really what your offer is? $3.65 million for 5 years? Marc Staal last season received a 5 year deal, with an average cap hit of $3.975, and was at a time when the cap hit was $59.4 million. With my clients strong defensive ability, we are looking at a slightly higher number, plus the inflation of the higher salary cap.<br /><br /><br />BB: So we are getting closer. There are a couple of things that I would like to say about the Marc Staal deal, and explain to you the difference, with our situation. 1: I am not Glen Sather. Bobby Holik, Scott Gomez, Chris Drury Darius Kaspiritis, and the list goes on. He overpays for everyone. However I am willing to use that as some sort of guideline. 2: Marc Staal's contract does not carry a no-trade/movement clause. He could end up in Nasville, Florida, Islanders or any other small market, which will hurt your client's long-term value. The no trade clause to play in Toronto is quite a valuable asset to have. If your client wants reassurance he will have job security here, then I will charge you for it.<br /><br />Also, Marc Staal this year was an All-Star. He plays more minutes than Schenn, and while I know Schenn is a better checker, and at blocking shots, if we analyze the statistics, the lack of shot blocking is largely due to his linemate Dan Girardi dominating the category. Also, Staal is better in the takeaways department, which is a crucial defensive stat, as well, he has a career high in goals that is higher than five. So did you bring up Marc Staal to lower the contract that I offered you? Or to at least prove my point?<br /><br /><br />DM: Right Burkie, you don't give out bad contracts, only Sather and Holmgren. What you gave to Komisarek must have made perfect sense at the time didn't it? Staal is not better than Schenn offensively. When you adjust their stats according to Power Play time received, Schenn actually had more points than Staal. My client will not be penalized because your coach chooses not to put trust in Luke's offensive ability. Dustin Byfuglien got $5.2 million from the Thrashers/Jets. The man is not capable of playing defence, and you want to tell me he is worth that? What would you say about $4.6 million for five seasons with a no trade clause?<br /><br /><br />BB: I maintain my stance, that the Komisarek deal was not all that expensive at the time, for one of the best unrestricted free agents on the market. Regarding Schenn, he receives no PP time, because he does not have an offensive flair. No matter how much time he got he would not have it. Marc Staal is a better play, or at least just as good as Schenn. His contract extends two years into his unrestricted free agency status, he does not carry a no-trade clause, and is getting paid less than $4 million. The contract for Luke only covers one year of unrestricted free agency, includes a no trade clause, so I will counter-offer with $3.9 million. I have increased from my original offer of $3.67 million, and also included a valuable no-trade clause to stay in the biggest hockey market in the world. As for Byfuglien, he had more game winning goals last season, than Luke's season career high in goals- let's just not go there, it is not worth the fight.<br /><br /><br />DM: $4.4 million.<br /><br /><br />BB: $4.05 million, or Luke is sitting out the year.<br /><br /><br />DM: Done. Congratulations, now I have got to go speak with the Kings GM Dean Lombardi, and explain how bad Luke Schenn, is and how Doughty is now worth at least $7.5 million. Good doing business with you Burkie.<br /><br /><br />BB: (grunts)<br /><br /><br />Note: This conversation never happened, but rather is a complete figment of my imagination.<br />Hope you enjoyed!<br />Look for my team-by-team season preview which will begin this week.<br />Follow on Twitter&nbsp;<a href="http://twitter.com/#!/realhockeytalk">http://twitter.com/#!/realhockeytalk</a>A.J.http://www.blogger.com/profile/01875979094724954303noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-353889957108108621.post-32152216951237858962011-05-31T19:32:00.001-04:002011-05-31T20:23:57.742-04:00Does a Jaromir Jagr return to the Rangers make any financial sense?The New York Rangers, are reportedly interested in bringing future Hall of Famer and hockey great Jaromir Jagr, back to the NHL. Jagr first came to the Rangers, after GM Glen Sather, back in the days when he did not believe in draft picks, or the notion to spend wisely on his players, traded Anson Carter for him in 2004. Jagr played his way out of Washington, to the point that they were willing to pay $20 million of his salary, in the trade.&nbsp;Jagr enjoyed some very successful seasons in New York statistically, but was never able to lead his team deep into the Playoffs. After the Rangers lack of offence against Washington in this years Playoffs, rumor has it that they are one of three teams in the running, if he would return to the NHL.<br /><div><a href="http://www.tsn.ca/nhl/story/?id=365807">http://www.tsn.ca/nhl/story/?id=365807</a></div><div><br /></div><div>Does a Jagr return make sense for the direction of this team? Simple answer is no. Signing Jaromir Jagr to a contract will be detrimental to the newfound mentality that has been instilled by Coach Tortorella. After years of having a reputation of trying to buy championships, most recently with the atrocious contracts of Gomez and Drury, (the jury is still out on Gaborik) they have finally replaced this mentality with a hard working&nbsp;commitment&nbsp;to &nbsp;a defensive system. Guys like Brandon Dubinsky and Ryan Callahan have become the face of the franchise, and spending money to bring in a player like Jagr may ruin the new look Rangers.</div><div><br /></div><div>The real area that Jagr would damage the new style Rangers, is the salary cap implications that such a signing would entail. Acording to CapGeek, with the current salary cap at 59.4 million, the Rangers have a little over $18 million to spend on 10 players to fill out their 23 man roster. While that is more cap space than the average team, the Rangers need to re-sign certain key players that have really excelled in their current system. Callahan and Dubinsky, both RFAs, are the two faces of the team on the offensive end, (sorry Gaborik, you lost that title) and need to be compensated accordingly. They will both receive in the neighbourhood of $4-5 million per season. Both of them, especially Callahan, play a defensively responsible game, and provide the two way game that Sather expected from Bobby Holik, when he gave him perhaps the worst contract in NHL history. The other two RFA forwards are Artem Anisimov and Brian Boyle. Boyle, a former sixth overall pick, has developed nicely after he looked like a bust on the Kings, and is a central piece to their penalty kill that ranked 6th in the NHL this past season. Together with Brand Prust, they combined for 12 shorthanded points this season. Anisimov is another player that made big strides in only his second season in the NHL, and at the age of 23, looks to be a big part of the bright future for the Rangers. Here is what I would say is the approximated breakdown of the four salaries that must be given out:<br /><br />Ryan Callahan- $4.5 million per season<br />Brandon Dubinsky- $4 million per season<br />Brian Boyle- $2 million per season<br />Artem Anisimov- $2 million per season<br /><br />Total: $12.5 million<br /><br />With an&nbsp;expectation&nbsp;that the salary cap will be raised to $62.2 million, after signing the four aforementioned players, they will have a little less than $9 million to spend on the remaining six spots on their roster. With a number of higher&nbsp;caliber&nbsp;players being unrestricted free agents, (Frolov and Prospal) the Rangers will need to try and find bargain priced veterans, and players from their farm system, to help fill out their roster.<br /><br />The obvious question that needs to be asked, is how much money will Jaromir Jagr ask for, to come to play again in the NHL. His first two years that he played for Avangard Omsk, Jagr was making $5 million dollars a season. It is also important to remember, that the tax system in Russia, allows for athletes to keep a larger portion of their salaries tax free. This past year, he received a very similar salary, which was more performance based, and less guaranteed salary. Well, lo and behold, he had his best season for Omsk, averaging over a point a game with 50 points in 49 games. Another thing that we know about Jagr, is that he does not take discounts to play. In 2001, he signed a 7yr/$77 million dollar contract with the Washington Capitals, a contract which crippled the ownerships ability to surround him with the pieces necessary for a championship contender. After having a fantastic season for Omsk, expect Jagr to command the same money he was making there, to return to the NHL; around $5 million.<br /><br />If I was writing this article a year from now, in the summer of 2012, I would be more inclined to say that it is worth it for the Rangers to take the risk on Jagr. The reason for this is because at the end of this season, the albatross of a contract of Chris Drury will come off the books. The Rangers are paying him over $7 million dollars a season, to essentially do nothing. He is consistently injured, and has not provided any value to this team at any point in the last two years. Drury holds a no-movement clause, which does not allow for him to be traded or sent to the minors to be Wade Redden's roommate without his consent. Drury, is hoping for a new contract from someone for next season, so there is about a zero percent chance that he allows himself to be demoted and not showcase his talents for an audition for next year. With over $7 million already tied up in a player that does not fit the structure of the team, it is an extremely risky proposition to spend the necessary money (even if they can actually fit him under the salary cap) to bring in Jagr.<br /><br />&nbsp;Rangers fans should be excited for next season even without Jagr in the lineup. The team made the Playoffs, despite Callahan and Gaborik each missing over 20 games, and aside from Lundqvist none of the stars played to the best of their abilities. Michael Del Zotto, suffered from the sophomore slump, and is looking to have a huge bounceback year, and together with Staal and Girardi, look to anchor the Rangers backend for many years to come. Up front, the team is brimming with up and coming talent. Derek Stepan is looking like he is the real deal, and Callahan and Dubinsky play with their hearts on their sleeve every game. Marian Gaborik has the ability to be one of the top ten best scorers in the NHL, when he is properly motivated and should be having a bounceback year next season. The Rangers still have one of the best goalies in the NHL, in King Henrik and with him around they are always in contention. Prust, Boyle, and Erik Christensen are three of the best glue guys in the entire NHL, and provide fantastic depth for this organization. Also, the Rangers had Prospal and Frolov injured for most of the season, and continued to play well with them on the sidelines. &nbsp;With two players in Wojtek Wolski and Drury coming off the books, combined with their almost $11 million in salaries, the Rangers after the 2012 season will have all that money to spend on players to improve an already solid core.<br /><br />By bringing in Jagr this season, the Rangers may jeopardize the solid young core that they have put in place, as well as they will create a reversion to their old habits. Sather, my message to you is; unless Jagr is playing for the veterans&nbsp;minimum, which would make him an impossible bargain to pass up,&nbsp;do not bring him in. You will take away from the work that Callahan and Dubinsky have done, and destroy the dynamic of the team that you have created over the past three years. A couple more years in this direction-especially when the team recovers from your Drury mistake, and you have a legitimate championship contender.<br /><br />Then again when was the last time Sather listened to anyone....<br /><br />Hope you enjoyed!!<br /><br />Follow me on twitter&nbsp;<a href="http://twitter.com/#!/Realhockeytalk">http://twitter.com/#!/Realhockeytalk</a></div>A.J.http://www.blogger.com/profile/01875979094724954303noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-353889957108108621.post-59576663178976356112011-05-25T15:42:00.001-04:002011-05-25T15:45:44.060-04:00The Sharks may have got bitten this series, but they have built themselves up for long term successThe San Jose Sharks suffered a heartbreaking defeat at the hands of the Vancouver Canucks, to lose for the second consecutive year in the Western Conference Finals. Most analysts will look at the way that they played in the series, and decide that the five games defeat was not&nbsp;indicative&nbsp;of &nbsp;the strong performance put on by the Sharks. For some unexplainable reason, this assessment is meant to offer some condolence to their fan base. I also believe that the best days for the Sharks lie ahead, but not due to their play in the series. The cause of my excitement is because of the structure of salaries of their team. For this the fans should get excited.<br /><br />The San Jose Sharks from a salary cap standpoint, are built for long run success. The biggest problem facing most teams recently like the Red Wings a few years ago and the Blackhawks last season, was that their players were all coming into their primes at the same time. Toews, Kane, Keith and Seabrook all needed big contracts at the same time, and in the new salary cap era, it is an unsustainable formula, which has lead to the semi collapse of a team that otherwise could have been a dynasty.<br /><br />The Canucks are faced with a very similar problem with their defence this off-season. After signing Hamhuis this past offseason to ensure that they have the deepest defence in the entire league, the Canucks will need to re-sign Ehrhoff, Bieksa and Salo this off-season. While Salo, may not get the big bucks again because of his injury concerns, Ehrhoff and Bieksa are both looking for their long term most expensive contracts. With the inexplicable acquisition of Kieth Ballard and his ludicrous 4.2 million dollar deal this past off-season, it will be almost impossible for them to maintain the services of both stars.<br /><br />Parenthetically, that may have been the weirdest trade in the entire NHL in the past five years. The Canucks, felt the need to go after a 4.2 million dollar player that would be the sixth defenceman on their team, and gave up Steve Bernier, Michael Grabner and a 1st round pick. Sounds like Florida got a steal right? Wrong. They promptly waived Grabner and allowed the Islanders to pick up a player that had the most goals in a season for a rookie since Alexander Ovechkin. I think both GM's must be kicking themselves these days and rightfully so.<br /><br />The Sharks on the other hand, have their players coming through in waves, which will allow them to maintain longevity of their&nbsp;successful&nbsp;team for many years to come. Right now the team has Marleau, Thornton, and Heatley all playing (albeit Heatley has been on vacation for a while) in the prime of their careers on their big money contracts. While they are receiving their big money, the team has young players like Devin Setoguchi (who is an RFA looking for a raise this summer) and Logan Couture playing on their entry level deals. Also, Ryan Clowe and Joe Pavelski are already playing on contracts that will run through the 2014 season. With all of their top players locked into long term contracts until 2014, the Sharks are not obligated to give raises to their young guys while paying the veterans on the team heavy duty contracts. This recipe will allow the Sharks to continue to hold onto all of their offensive star talent. When Heatley is on your third line, you know that you are a pretty deep team, and the ability to hold onto all of those players is a luxury most teams have not allowed themselves to have.<br /><br />The defence for the San Jose Sharks which was 4th in the NHL in goals against, also has their glue guys locked up for the foreseeable future. The salary cap situation is very similar on the defensive side of their game. Dan Boyle is still locked into his megadeal for the next few seasons, M.E. Vlasic and the upcoming Douglas Murray (I still cannot believe with a name like that, that he is Swedish) already finished their entry level deals,and &nbsp;there are no big money players getting older that they need to give a raise to. The defence is actually in line for a significant influx of new talent. Ian White ($3 million) Nicklas Wallin ($2.5 million) and Kent Huskins ($1.7 million) are all coming off of the books this season and if they do come back, will be at significant discounts. With Jason Demers looking like he is ready to join the top six, the Sharks may be willing to throw the extra money available on defence at a star player. Would it not be an amazing story if Kevin Bieksa was somehow lured to San Jose for next season? He sure made a good impression this series.<br /><br />The goalie situation is very stable as well for the Sharks. Antti Niemi, after his rough start acclimating to the Sharks, ended the season on a very strong level. He had some rough patches during the playoffs, but I think, as does GM Doug Wilson, that Niemi is their goalie of the future. A couple of months ago he received a four year deal that will pay him roughly $3.8 million per year. An extremely fair number for a goalie that has proven that he is capable of leading a team deep into the Playoffs. Also, with Anterro Nittymaki as his backup, the Sharks are set in goal. (Great Sharks trivia: Who is the last Canadian born goaltender to play in a game for Sharks?)<br /><br />My message to Sharks fans is the following: Over the next three years, the Canucks will need to find a way to fit Burrows, Bieksa, and Ehrhoff into their tight salary cap. The Red Wings were beaten by you this year and are only getting older. The Flyers, do not have a goalie that can stop a wiffle ball never mind a puck. The Lightning are saddled with some bad contracts and will need to shell out top money for Stamkos and Hedman in the upcoming seasons. Boston is really the only team that is in a similar situation financially to the Sharks. Most of the serious competition is not going to be able to afford to seriously improve from the current team that they have now, or even keep all of their top players that they have now. With some savvy free agent signings this off-season and an increase in production from star rookie Couture and a rejuvenation of Dany Heatley, the Sharks core may be the most talented come the end of 2012. For that you should be excited for.<br /><br />Hope you enjoyed!<br />Follow on Twitter @realhockeytalkA.J.http://www.blogger.com/profile/01875979094724954303noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-353889957108108621.post-69954551003757905762011-05-09T18:14:00.007-04:002011-05-09T20:04:01.289-04:00While the answer may not be obvious, there really is no question: the Flyers need a top notch goalieThe first round for the Philadelphia Flyers, almost ended in an absolute disaster. It took them a full seven games, which included a come from behind win in Game 6, to eliminate the injury-rattled Buffalo Sabres. Missing Derek Roy, losing Jason Pominville, and playing with a concussed Ryan Miller, the Sabres really gave the Flyers all that they could.<br /><br />After escaping by the skin of their teeth, the Flyers had a semifinal rematch with the Bruins. Let's just say the epic comeback of last season did not see a repeat. The Flyers were outscored 20-7 in the four game sweep, and played like the Flyers of 2007 that ended the season with 56 points. One stat the certainly jumps off the table is that the Flyers actually outshot Boston in the series 149-129. The goal differential in light of the shot differential highlights the Flyers long time problem; goaltending.<br /><br />Paul Holmgren, in what many consider to be the most comical comment of the Playoffs said. "I don't think that we can fault our goaltending at any point in this series." While he is right that the backchecking amongst the forwards was not as good as it should have been, to not blame your goalies that have a collected a 4.50 GAA and an 877 SV%, goaltending is clearly a problem for this team. It always has been, and unless Holmgren can man up and realize it is an issue that needs to be fixed, it may always be a problem.<br /><br />Just like I did in my last article about the Calgary Flames, (I recommend checking it out if you have not seen it already) I am going to go through the makeup of this Flyers team and what opportunities are available to the Flyers, to improve their goaltending woes.<br /><br />The Flyers clearly need to get a frontline top goaltender to answer there woes. They have tried the Chicago, and Detroit track, where you put no money into the goaltender, and it has failed them miserably. There are two star goaltenders in Illya Byzgalov and Thomas Vokoun, that are going to be on the open market and will ask approximately $5 million per season. The problem facing the Flyers is how to sign them to a contract. Here is a list of the salaries that the owe to their top 11 players for next season:<br /><br />Daniel Briere: $7 million<br />Mike Richards: $6.6 million<br />Jeff Carter: $6 million<br />Scott Hartnell: $3.7 million<br />Kris (crippling trade) Versteeg: $3.1 million<br />Claude Giroux: $2.75 million<br />Kimmo Timonen: $5 million<br />Chris Pronger: $7.6 million<br />Andrej Meszaros: $4 million<br />Matt Carle: $3.8 million<br />Brayden Coburn: $3.2 million<br /><br />Total: $52.75 million<br />Note: This is a list of actual salaries, the cap hit on the contracts are varying in both directions.<br /><br />With the suspected cap hit of 62 million, the Flyers are left with less than 10 million dollars to fill out over half of their roster. This is before they re-sign Ville Leino, their top UFA. Thanks to Holmgren's short-sighted trade for Kris Versteeg without giving up a penny from the current roster, he has left his team in contractual problems that makes the Hawks woes of last year look like nothing. The Versteeg trade made even less sense when you realize that they had absolutely no need for another offensive player. It fails me to understand what the Flyers had to gain.<br /><br />There are two scenarios that can arise that may allow Holmgren to sign either Bryzgallov or Vokoun. Either they are able to option a player making a lot of money, like Matt Carle or Brayden Coburn to the minors, or trade them. These guys, especially Coburn who is an absolute beast on the penalty kill, may garner attention from teams looking for a young and steady defenceman that carries a short term contract into the new CBA.<br /><br />The other scenario that may arise, that will allow for the Flyers to sign a goalie, is if the market suffers from the "Turco, Nabokov syndrome." Essentially there is nobody in the market that is willing to pay for a goaltender, so you can either accept minimum veterans salary, or go play for a couple of weeks in Europe, before promptly requesting to come back to the NHL, only to be claimed by the least desirable destination in perhaps all of sports. Hmm....<br /><br />I do not believe that the Panthers have any interest in re-signing Thomas Vokoun. They have the number one goalie prospect Jakub Markstrom in their system, and in a full rebuilding mode, there is no need for a 35 year old goaltender that will not contribute to any long term success. The only way I see him returning, is if the Panthers give him a huge one year contract. Again, from a hockey standpoint, it makes no sense for either side ti bring him back. <br /><br />Bryzgallov is a very interesting case. If the Coyotes end up moving to Winnipeg, he has said that he has no intentions of playing there and will move on from the organization. While he may end up getting swayed by money, he has eliminated one of the few teams that will be in the market looking for a goalie. Also, with the ownership in limbo, it may be difficult for them to lay out the money they will need to bring him back to the desert, especially with Kieth Yandle as an RFA that they need to sign.<br /><br />The only teams that I can see actually interested in investing and pursuing a top notch goaltender, are the Flyers, Avalanche, Blue Jackets and Islanders ( interested in pursuing a healthy goaltender). The Flyers are the only ones that actually have realistic championship capabilities, and will be a huge draw to any goaltender looking for a new home. So while the asking price may be $5 million, the Islanders may be scared off by paying for another goaltender, the Jackets might think that Steve Mason will remember how to play hockey, and the Avs might decide that they can find another one hit wonder like Craig Anderson, and keep their costs as low as they possibly can. With a very limited market, the Flyers may get away with making a lowball offer of about $3 million. While I think Bryzgalov will go to the KHL, I think that Vokoun may bite.<br /><br />If these avenues do not work out, the only other option left for the Flyers is to make a trade. The one thing that they most definitely have on their side, is that they have a significant amount of assets. While I do not usually like to speculate, the one glaring trade scenario that really seems to work, is the Flyers acquiring Jonathan Quick.<br /><br />As documented as the Flyers inability to procure a top notch goaltenders has been, the inability for the Kings to land their much coveted partner for Anze Kopitar has been almost as emphasized.The Kings have tried absolutely everything, they have signed Alex Ponikarovsky, traded for Marco Sturm and Dustin Penner, and lost out on the opportunity to choke themselves by signing Illya Kovalchuk to an enormous contract.<br /><br />With the most heralded and top young goalie in Jonathan Bernier, the Kings should be looking to trade Quick, while he still has value on his low contract. Quick is signed for another two seasons at 1.8 mil each. The Flyers can afford this, and can also provide the Kings with the top line players they need. The Kings have an extensive number of restricted free agents to sign, highlighted by superstar Drew Doughty, and the best young third liner in the game Wayne Simmonds. After all the internal signings are completed the Kings will be left with approximately only 3 million dollars in cap space to begin the 2011 season<br /><br />With not much flexibility to play around with, it seems the best option for them to acquire is James Van Riemsdyk. He is a on his entry level contract this season, and will be looking for a big pay hike, at the end of the upcoming season. By then, the Kings will be able to afford to pay him the money, with almost 18 million dollars coming off the books at the end of the 2011 season. Ryan Smyth (6.25 mil) Willie Mitchell (3.5 mil) Dustin Penner (4.25 mil) and Jarret Stoll (3.6 mil) even if re-signed will be at a discount from what they are currently making, and will free up some money for the Kings. JVR has certainly showed that he is developing into one of the premier power forwards in the entire NHL, and is the best asset that the Flyers can dangle to acquire a top notch goaltender.<br /><br />While it will hurt the Flyers in the long run to lose a player pf JVR's ilk, the future for this team is now. With Briere, Pronger and Timonen on the wrong side of 30, this team is built to compete for a championship at this juncture, and must sacrifice a little for the future. The future is not completely lost however, with Carter, Giroux, Richards up front, there is still plenty of talent for the Flyers to continue to score with the best of them. However as is always the case, their success is contingent on finding a goaltender, and that is what they need to do. In essence, when Holmgren traded for Versteeg and the addition of his $3 million salary, all he was doing is ensuring he will need to lose a key piece of his future, it is time for him to admit his mistake and finally do it the right way.<br /><br />Homlgren- go find a goaltender, and do whatever you have to do to get him. Your comments about goaltending not being the problem makes you sound foolish and in denial of the reality.<br /><br />Who do you think they should sign?<br /><br />Hope you enjoyed!<br />Follow on Twitter @realhockeytalk<br /><br /><br /><div class="MsoNormal"><br /></div>A.J.http://www.blogger.com/profile/01875979094724954303noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-353889957108108621.post-24756043807901112752011-05-01T04:17:00.005-04:002011-05-01T10:32:31.505-04:00Calgary Flames looking a lot like the 2007 Maple Leafs.........In case you could not figure it out that is not a good thing.As everyone is talking about the Playoffs lately, I wanted to ensure that Canadian fans did not think that we forgot about the rest of the league. (I mean how could we, isn't Toronto the hockey mecca?!?) Anyways, I was thinking about this article for a while, thought it was very interesting:<br /><div><br /></div><div>Since the free spending days before the lockout, the Leafs have been a total&nbsp;disappointment&nbsp;to their loyal fans in Southern Ontario. The most frustrating thing that faced Maple Leafs fans, was the frustration of knowing that their team was constrained by the cap, from actually gaining talent and growing into a Stanley Cup contender. The Leafs were&nbsp;shuffling&nbsp;in the 11th seed in the Eastern Conference: not bad enough for a great pick, but not good enough to come to the Playoffs. But the truth is, that even had they made the Playoffs, they would have gone absolutely nowhere. They had a less than stellar Toskala in net, as well as the Muskoka Five on&nbsp;exorbitant&nbsp;contracts, not allowing this team to gain any new upper end talent.<br /><div><br /></div><div>Then Brian Burke was brought in and everything changed. The most tenured player on the Leafs roster is Nikolai &nbsp;Kulemin with 233 games. Whatever you may want to say about Burke, and some of the acquisitions that he has made, everyone will agree that he is not the kind of person that is looking to hedge his bet: he is in it for the big fish. That is the biggest difference between Ferguson and Burke. Burke would never sign a player like Jason Blake, he is another player that falls under my well-documented Stephen Weiss theory. Paid as a top line guy, that can only be a top-liner on a bad team. (Which explains the faults with the Anaheim team, they had too much money tied to a second line, and were left with no depth whatsoever, eventually losing to a franchise with values completely opposite. A different story for a different day). Burkie, as well as Fletcher realized that all of these players had to go, along with their insanely long no-trade clause contracts. He broke this team down to their bear bottom and decided to build up from total&nbsp;scratch.&nbsp;</div><div><br /></div><div>Look at the product, gone are the days when Ponikarovsky is masquerading as a legitimate second line player, and McCabe is living on his 5.75 million dollar contract because he defended with the patented can opener in 2002. The new Leafs are no longer middling thirty year olds wallowing in mediocrity, they are a young group of talented players that are growing as a team. Even though Brian Burke has never had the measured success of &nbsp;JFJ in the standings, there is not a single Leafs fan that believes they were better off before. He has placed them in a situation, where they actually have 2 first round picks as well as 25 million dollars in cap space. When was the last time that happened?!!?&nbsp;</div><div><br /></div><div>Our counterparts in Calgary, are starting to look eerily similar to the dark days of&nbsp;mediocrity&nbsp;in Leafsland three seasons ago. Both teams had a legitimate star player towards the end of his career that was still performing, as well as a set of defencemen that were overpaid and tied into very long contracts. The Flames have already decided to bury Ales Kotalik and his $3 million dollar deal in the minors, in a move that was designed to free up some much needed cap space. Keep in mind that this past season the cap was 59 million and is expected to rise to 62 mil, take a look at the numbers for 2012, of the following eleven players:</div><div><br /></div><div>Jarome Iginla: $7 million</div><div>Matt Stajan: $4.5 million</div><div>Daymond Langkow: $4.5 million</div><div>Nik Hagman: $3 million</div><div>Rene Bourque: $4 million</div><div>Olli Jokinen: $3 million</div><div>Jay Bouwmeester: $6.6 million</div><div>Mark Giordano: $4 million</div><div>Robyn Regehr: $4 million</div><div>Corey Sarich: $3.3 million</div><div>Miikka Kiprusoff: $6 million</div><div><br /></div><div>=49.9 million dollars</div><div><br /></div><div>While that is not their actual cap hits, some are more, and some are less, the team is paying eleven of their players, which amounts to 40% of their team, over 80% of the budget. This was the kind of general manager that Darryl Sutter became later in his career. My take on it is, that he became nervous about his job and was hoping that if they could sneak into the 8th seed he would be able to save it. That is what caused him to cripple his team with the Dion Phaneuf trade in the end of January. He did not save his team any money on the deal, as is proof of the contract that he was paying Hagman, and that he handed out to Matt Stajan. Rather he was hoping that by adding three decent players, he can balance out a team that will be a low end playoff contender. What has become obvious is that his plan failed, and horribly.<br /><br />&nbsp;Compounding the problem is that they need to re-sign or replace their third and fourth best goal scorers: Alex Tanguay, and the hardest working player on the team Curtis Glencross, as well as upcoming star Anton Babchuk. This is all while they are supposed to go out and sign new players so that they will actually get better. What should they do? To perhaps figure out the best plan of action for Jay Feaster to take, let's look at the top eleven players salary-wise on the Leafs 2007 roster. Keep in mind that the salary cap was $50.3 million that season.</div><div><br /></div><div>Bryan McCabe: $7.15 million</div><div>Mats Sundin: $5.5 million</div><div>Jason Blake: $5 million</div><div>Pavel Kubina $5 million</div><div>Tomas Kaberle: $4.25 million</div><div>Darcy Tucker: $3 million</div><div>Hal Gill: $2.075 million</div><div>Mark Bell (what a bad player eh?): $2 million</div><div>Andrew Raycroft $2 million</div><div>Nik Antropov: $1.95 million</div><div>Alex Ponikarovsky: $1.575 million</div><div><br /></div><div>Total= 39.5 million dollars</div><div><br /></div><div>These eleven players represented 40% of the team, and 79% of the total team salary. Jay Feaster can learn a lot from the job that Cliff&nbsp;Fletcher&nbsp;and Brian Burke did so quickly the previous three seasons. One thing that he should not do, is sign high priced free agent defencemen like Jeff Finger and Mike Komisarek, it will only hinder the rebuilding process (Sorry, I needed to make my token Komisarek line). Aside from the Mats Sundin contract, the Leafs did a remarkable job of erasing these expensive contracts. While I am in the class that believes that Mats Sundin did enough for this franchise, that we have no right to be frustrated with him when he refused to waive his no trade clause, I still believe that something more could have been done. The two worst contracts on defence were both moved the same way: get nothing in return from a team that does not mind paying a large amount for a player for a short time span. For Kubina and McCabe, the Leafs got Garnett Exelby and Mike Van Ryan in return: a player that was constantly injured, and another that was so bad, it wouldn't have matter if he was constantly injured. Brian Burke traded Tomas Kaberle after holding on to him for so long, acquiring Joe Colborne, a 1st rounder and conditional 2nd round pick, in a deal that is starting to look like highway robbery. Alex Ponikarovsky was traded for Luca Caputi, a hard working prospect that provides the type of grit, Burke looks for in all of his players. Antropov was traded for picks, and the team was forced to buy out the contracts of Raycroft and Tucker (a contract they are still paying).&nbsp;</div><div><br /></div><div>Jay Feaster is also&nbsp;handicapped&nbsp;with no trade/movement clauses on ten of his top eleven players. The only one that does not have one in his contract is Mark Giordano, aside from Iginla, the best of all contracts, and one I am sure he does not want to move. While it is important for Feaster to understand the need to rebuild, this does not mean he should trade Iginla.He proved this season&nbsp;that he is still amongst the best in the entire NHL. There is no reason to move him as you will not be able to replace his talent, even at the expensive price tag of 7 million. Kiprusoff, is not movable either, not because he is such an important piece (which he is) rather because there is no market for a six million dollar goalie. Rather. Feaster is going to have to request some of his players to waiver their no trade clauses, a request that I am sure some of them will be more than willing to do. Or at least I hope so for Calgary's sake.</div><div><br /></div><div>So how to free up space? &nbsp;Well he most likely will look to move Jay&nbsp;Bowmeester&nbsp;and his massive contract. The contract carries a cap hit of 6.6 million for the next three seasons. Trading him would be very similar to trading Bryan McCabe: which means get nothing in return. This would free up some long term flexibility. Another option would be to trade him for a worse player with a bad contract which is shorter term. Feaster is going to have to realize, that just like it took the Leafs three years to recover, it will be just as bad for him, if not worse.&nbsp;</div><div><br /></div><div>While I hate predicting trades and&nbsp;things&nbsp;of that nature, one specific trade keeps on coming to mind. The Columbus Blue Jackets, have the most no-name group of defenceman, with a dearth of talent. They also have a clog up front of good second line players. Re-uniting Kristian Huselius, and his 4.75 million salary for one more year with Iginla, seems like the perfect solution for both teams. Gives a solid D-man to the Blue Jackets, and the Flames will get some long term flexibility.&nbsp;</div><div><br /></div><div>The Flames in reality, can call the season a wash, and let $11 million in payroll walk at the end of the season, in Sarich, Hagman and Langkow and give them some of that flexibility that they need. However, certain decisions are pressing for this season, before those contracts come off the books. What to do with Glencross and Tanguay, and Anton Babchuk? Tanguay made 1.7 mil last season, and after clicking with Iginla, and scoring 69 points he will be in line for a significant raise. Glencross made 1.2 mil last season, and proved that he is one of the hardest working third line players in the entire league. As a UFA he will command at least 2.5 mil on the open market. Babchuk finally showed some of his potential last season, first on the team in +/- and first in goals amongst d-men with 11. He needs to be re-signed as well.&nbsp;</div><div><br /></div><div>How can Feaster do all this? Well one thing that he needs to understand is that he cannot look forward to improving the team in the free agent market this season. He needs to spend the season establishing which players will be here for the long run, and which will he let their contracts run or try trading. Internally, the first thing that needs to be done is to waive Matt Stajan. If nobody picks him up, you need to put him down in the minors with his good buddy Kotalik. His contract is too prohibitive, running all the way through 2014. With this extra money, you should be able to re-up Glencross and Babchuk.</div><div><br /></div><div>If ownership allows him to pull a Wade Redden, and place Bouwmeester in the minors, that may solve all problems. It would free up almost 18 million dollars after the 2011-2012 season in cap space. However, I get the feeling that will not happen and a more conventional approach may need to be taken.&nbsp;</div><div><br /></div><div>With Giordano and Babchuk the top two defencemen, fan favorite Robyn Regehr may be the odd man out. He has a 4 million dollar contract that runs through the 2013 season, and at that salary should garner Kaberlesque attention. The return on Regehr would also be very similar, and could help start off the inevitable rebuilding process that the Flames need if they want to return as championship contenders. Hopefully for the sake of the fans, it will not come to them losing their longtime fan favorite.&nbsp;</div><div><br /></div><div>If all works out by the end of the 2012-13 season, Feaster can shave this off his teams salary:</div><div><div>Matt Stajan: $4.5 million (minors)</div><div>Daymond Langkow: $4.5 million (free agent)</div><div>Nik Hagman: $3 million (free agent)</div></div><div><div>Olli Jokinen: $3 million (free agent)</div><div>Jay Bouwmeester: $6.6 million (trade/waivers/minors/anything)</div></div></div><div>Corey Sarich: $3.3 million</div><div><br /></div><div>Total= $24.9 million</div><div><br /></div><div>With that kind of cap space, it sounds a lot like the Leafs of 2011, just minus the young players like........... Kieth Aulie (ooohh that burns).</div><div><br /></div><div>As a passionate Leafs fan, my message to all Flames fans is that they should not get frustrated with the rebuilding process. Finishing in 8th in the conference should not be the end result anyways, and it takes at least half a decade to build a championship contender. The Leafs have not been more exciting to watch and follow since the lockout. The city feels that a winner is coming soon, and the excitement is back in the air. The few years of bitterness can easily be replaced with Reimeresque smiles, you just need to play your cards right. &nbsp;For that I wish Feaster all the luck in the world, Calgary is counting on you.&nbsp;</div><div><br /></div><div>Hope you enjoyed!&nbsp;</div><div>Follow on Twitter&nbsp;<a href="http://twitter.com/#!/Realhockeytalk">http://twitter.com/#!/Realhockeytalk</a></div>A.J.http://www.blogger.com/profile/01875979094724954303noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-353889957108108621.post-75743094028156480622011-04-21T14:31:00.000-04:002011-04-21T14:31:44.991-04:00Ten key insights that we have learned so far from these Playoffs.The NHL Playoffs are back, and have been as exciting as ever. We have had memorable games, memorable moments, sorry&nbsp;Phoenix&nbsp;fans, and constant excitement that constantly has left me on the edge of my seat. But with every game played, new lessons have been taught. Playoffs are a time when the empirical truths come to light. While we have always known that Nashville lacks the star power to pull out a series win, (the jury is still out on them this year) the 2011 Playoffs have given us a number of new hockey insights.&nbsp;<div><br /></div><div>10: Thomas Kaberle is not that good. Peter Chiarelli, a GM that I hold in extremely high regard, &nbsp;expressed his frustration over the play of Kaberle. In an interview that he held with 98.5 Sports Hub, he proclaimed, "<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 12px; line-height: 18px;">He hasn’t played up to the level that we expected.&nbsp;</span><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 12px; line-height: 18px;">There have been parts of his game where he hasn’t played in the playoffs for a while and some of those [bad] habits have stuck with him. We expected better." This is his way of saying, I cannot believe I gave up prospects and picks for a player off of the Leafs roster. We torch them when we take THEIR prospects and picks, "cough cough Rask, Seguin." He has not helped their power play, which has been an anemic 9% since he arrived, and has not potted one yet in the Playoffs. The Leafs hope that Boston re-signs him for the sake of their second round pick, but if he continues to play like this look for Chiarelli to cut his losses and look for that puck moving defenceman elsewhere.&nbsp;</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 12px; line-height: 18px;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 12px; line-height: 18px;">On a side note, something I did not think would happen, but Rich Peverley has been an awful pickup, and it looks like they miss Wheeler's size and skill on the third and fourth line. The trade deadline pickups, did not work out nearly as well as they looked earlier this season.&nbsp;</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 12px; line-height: 18px;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 12px; line-height: 18px;">9: The success of the San Jose Sharks, rests upon the shoulder of....... Logan Couture and Ryan Clowe.</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 12px; line-height: 18px;">Just like they supported this team throughout the struggles of the first half of this season, they will have to pick up the slack for their choking teammates again. After three games&nbsp;</span><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 12px; line-height: 18px;">&nbsp;this post season, Clowe has the same amount of points as the three "stars". Even last season, making the conference finals, Heatley and Thornton were a combined -18. It is time to accept that they are not the kind of players that elevate their games for the post-season. &nbsp;The success of last season- thank you Joe Pavelski.</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 12px; line-height: 18px;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: 12px; line-height: 18px;">8: Dan Bylsma is an absolute coaching wizard. He has his team up 3-1 in a series, where they are at such a significant talent disadvantage. They tied Philly in points in the regular season, through hard work, and a&nbsp;commitment to defence. Bylsma knew exactly what he was doing when he handed the starting job to Brent Johnson at the beginning of the season: he was lighting a fire under his star goalie, and has him playing the best hockey of his young career. While the Lovejoys, Letestus and Kennedys continue to make an impact up front, this team looks like the team to beat if they can ever get their top players healthy again. Wouldn't Pittsburgh and Washington be such a downer if Crosby cannot play.&nbsp;</span></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: 12px; line-height: 18px;"><br /></span></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: 12px; line-height: 18px;">7: Steven Stamkos is a talented goal scorer, who does not rise to the occasion in the big games. If we needed any more proof that Martin St. Louis is the heart and soul of this team, we have seen it in these Playoffs. &nbsp;Stamkos has yet to score in the post season, and is stuck on only one assist through four games. His diminutive teammate on the other hand has 4 goals and 6 points and continues to be the driving force for this young team. While Stamkos has been a remarkable goal scorer for their team, (aside from the final 20 games, when they were pushing for home ice advantage) Steve Yzerman is going to have to think long and hard about signing him to the big big bucks he will be looking for. With St. Louis being 35 years old, and the albatross contract of Lecavalier, Stamkos will not be with a star playmaker in Tampa in two years from now, and the question is how will he produce. He has disappeared this postseason even with St Louis in the lineup, is he worth the Ovechkin-Crosby money? Not with performances like this...</span></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: 12px; line-height: 18px;"><br /></span></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: 12px; line-height: 18px;">6: Bruce&nbsp;Boudreau&nbsp;knew exactly what he was doing all season long. Two words that I never thought I would hear in the same sentence: Capitals and defence. All season long this is what their coach has been preaching. Even mired in a seven game losing streak, Boudreau refused to change his course. Taking all the heat for Ovechkin, and Bakcstrom's poor offensive performances this season, he simply did not care. He understood that as long as they did not know how to play defence, they would not be able to win in the Playoffs. With this new commitment to defence, the Capitals are looking primed for a long playoff run. We are also seeing determination from this group, as they battled back from a 3-0 deficit to win in OT, after a beautiful chip pass from Gaborik to Jason Chimera, to set him up with a wide open net.( You think a Gaborik, Stamkos combination would get shutout four consecutive games in a tight playoff series?)</span></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: 12px; line-height: 18px;"><br /></span></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: 12px; line-height: 18px;">5: One of the best tweets of the post-season: @Sportsnetbroph yesterday that Dan Girardi is deserving of the Vezina. Through four games the guy has 23 blocked shots, a very similar number to Illya Brzgalov. In all probability, the Rangers made the playoffs because of their ability to block shots. This is where they miss Ryan Callahan the most. He is the best shot blocking forward in the NHL by far. He blocked 1.28 shots per game. The second best amongst forwards that played sixty games is Adam Burrish with 1.11. While Girardi has proven to be a great goalie alongside King Henrik, the Rangers miss the leader of their team, on the defensive side just as much as they miss him offensively. In such a tight series, that has&nbsp;featured&nbsp;two games in OT, and the other two very close as well, with Callahan in the lineup, the series could easily be 3-1 in favor of the Rangers.</span></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: 12px; line-height: 18px;"><br /></span></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: 12px; line-height: 18px;">4: The Blackhawks are not suffering from post-winning syndrome, they just are not that good. The entire season, everyone was waiting for them to break out, and it simply never happened. &nbsp;With a top heavy team of Toews, Kane, Hossa, Sharp, Keith, Seabrook and Campbell, there is no money for them to pay for depth. What may have turned out to be the biggest off-season news, (after Kovalchuk decided to relax with his career-long paychek) is the offer sheet that the Hawks matched for Hjarmalsson. The Sharks offered 4 yr/14 million dollars and completely cash-strapped the defending champions. After their game 4 dominance with Dave Bolland returning with a 4 point night, it summed up the issues that have been plaguing the Hawks all season. They must find a way to re-sign Brouwer in the off-season, or look for mediocrity to settle once again in the Midwest.&nbsp;</span></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: 12px; line-height: 18px;"><br /></span></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: 12px; line-height: 18px;">3: Some of the oldest players in the league are still having&nbsp;remarkable&nbsp;seasons. I tweeted yesterday, that I am not sure what is more impressive, Teemu Selanne at 40, or Mark Recchi at 43. Teemu is leading the league in goal scoring with 5 in the post season, and Recchi is tied for the team lead with 3 points in three games. Along with Roloson, Thomas, St. Louis and Lidstrom, some of the oldest players have been making the largest impact this post-season. The post season has been dominated by players 30 and over, or 25 and younger. Offenceman that are in their so-called "prime" are few and far between this post-season, with Ryan Kesler and Mike Richards really being the lone exceptions. It really highlights the importance of experience in the post-season, and the remarkable amount of young talent that is coming into the NHL these days.&nbsp;</span></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: 12px; line-height: 18px;"><br /></span></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: 12px; line-height: 18px;">2: Since the beginning of the&nbsp;millennium&nbsp;the Flyers have been dealing with goaltending issues in the post-season. This was supposed to be the year where they finally break through and go all the way, on the shoulders of the infamous Bob. That plan has failed, and badly. He has broken down in the second half of the season, and the duties of leading the angry Flyers fans rests upon the duties of the&nbsp;epitomize of backup goaltending: Brian Boucher. Unless Boucher learns from his AHL-demoted buddy Leighton, "how to lead a team to the Cup, when I have no business there" this is going to be another exit for the Flyers. Perhaps they should learn from there opponents: Get a goaltender, and hope the rest works out, seems to be working okay for the offensively challenged Sabres. &nbsp;</span></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: 12px; line-height: 18px;"><br /></span></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: 12px; line-height: 18px;">1: Phoenix does not deserve an NHL team. With the news out that they were most likely moving to Winnipeg, tickets were still available the day of their home Playoff game. How does that happen? They have a team that is 6th in the ultra-competitive West, and they still do not have the support of the city? Never mind going to Winnipeg, they should come to Toronto, and they will get the treatment they deserve, from the corporations that make the ACC sound like a morgue, rather than a hockey game. But in all honesty, with the travelling Quebec fans, begging for another franchise, and the people of Winnipeg still desperate, it is time to move them outta the clutches of corrupt owners and city officials, back to the Great North, where the game is loved.&nbsp;</span></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: 12px; line-height: 18px;"><br /></span></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: 12px; line-height: 18px;">As the post-season goes on, I am sure that many more exciting stories will come to light. Anymore great insights, would love to hear of them in the comments section!</span></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: 12px; line-height: 18px;"><br /></span></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: 12px; line-height: 18px;">Follow on twitter @realhockeytalk</span></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: 12px; line-height: 18px;"><br /></span></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: 12px; line-height: 18px;">Hope you enjoyed!</span></span></div>A.J.http://www.blogger.com/profile/01875979094724954303noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-353889957108108621.post-30304784739971319452011-04-12T22:34:00.000-04:002011-04-12T22:34:55.259-04:00Key Question that will determine each Playoff series.The Playoffs are finally upon us, and they look to be amongst the most exciting in recent memory. Let's take a look at the key question that will determine each series.<br /><br />Eastern Conference:<br /><br />(1) Washington Capitals vs. (8) New York Rangers:<br />Question: Will the Capitals offence (and defence)show up, or will the Rangers continue their dominance from the regular season?<br /><br />The Rangers completely dominated the Capitals in the last three games they have faced each other. They won the three games by a combined total of 15-1. This is quite in line with the peculiar play of the Rangers this season, they are the worst team in the Playoffs based on their record, but carry the fourth best goal differential of all teams. When this team gets going beware.<br />Ovechkin, Backstrom and Semin, all had below average regular seasons and will be needed desperately for the Capitals to beat the Rangers; a feat that should be an easy accomplishment for this remarkably talented group. That is unless they face a hot goaltender because we know what the outcome that will produce.....<br /><br />(2) Philadelphia Flyers vs. (7) Buffalo Sabres:<br />Question: Will the Flyers of the first 55 games show up?<br /><br />The Flyers were the top team in the conference for the majority of the season, and for whatever reason have been playing extremely poorly to finish off the season. This is in direct contrast to the their success last season, where they basically played the role of the Sabres, and made it all of the way to the Cup Finals. The Sabres have been playing some of their best hockey, and have a goaltender that is capable of stealing a series at any time. The Flyers need to get their grit and determination back to the way they played the first 55 games. It will help to get Chris Pronger back on defence, he is an absolute beast in the Playoffs. Interesting to note that the Leafs and Flyers basically reverse positions in the standings after the Versteeg trade, coincidence....... I think not! Watch the Sabres walk away with this one!<br /><br />(3) Boston Bruins vs. (6) Montreal Canadiens:<br />Question: Will the Canadiens heart and determination, help them win this guaranteed slugfest?<br /><br />If you are a fan of feisty, physical hockey, this is the perfect matchup. There are no two teams in the entire league and outside of Red Sox and Yankees, perhaps in the entire sports world that hate each other so much. After Zdeno Chara's unfortunate hit on Max Pacioretty, tensions went to another level. While Boston has the upper hand in every category on these Canadiens, (except special teams) the heart and determination that the Canadiens are expected to show, may fuel that with that extra spark that they need to win. Should be a great series.<br /><br />(4) Pittsburgh Penguins vs. (5) Tampa Bay Lighning<br />Question: Will each teams star players actually show up and play?<br /><br />Just to clarify, on the Pittsburgh side, I am not talking about Matt Cooke, because he is not undoubtedly unavailable until the second round, rather I was referring to the Golden Boy: Sid the Kid. He has not even been cleared for contact yet, but if he plays this gives the Penguins an&nbsp;unbelievable added weapon, and they will surely benefit from having the best player in the league rested for a Playoff run. Without Malkin already, the Penguins deserve a lot of credit for playing a stingy game and getting into the Playoffs.<br /><br />For Tampa, I know that their star players are healthy, just Stamkos has not been producing lately. Seriously, &nbsp;what has happened to Stamkos?!? He had a ten goal lead on the Rocket Richard trophy, and he completely fell off the map. He lost the Rocket by five goals, and the Art Ross by 13 points. The most concerning part of this whole equation, is that he has been a -13 since the All-Star break. For a guy that is second in goals and plays for a Playoff team that is pathetic. If he decides to show up and play the way we all&nbsp;know&nbsp;he is capable of, it may throw the balance in favor of the healthier Lightning.<br /><br />Western Conference:<br />(1) Vancouver Canucks vs. (8) Chicago Blackhawks:<br />Question: Do the Blackhawks have the Canucks in a psychological chokehold?<br /><br />To make one thing clear, if the rules stated that the number one seed can choose who they want to play, I am almost positive that the Canucks would have chose anyone else. The Blackhawks are on the minds of these guys so much, that Luongo even felt compelled to whisper in Kane's ear after beating him in the Gold Medal game, that he will see him in the Playoffs. What happened Playoff time? Of course they lost again in six games. This time though it looks to be different, the Canucks are the better team, and have been playing that way all season long. If they are able to break that psychological barrier, they should be able to dispose of the Hawks with ease.<br />C'mon Canucks, you are the only Canadian team with any chance at winning anything........ Actually scratch that, the Oilers won the lottery.<br /><br />(2) San Jose Sharks vs. (7) Loas Angeles Kings:<br />Question: Who will do the scoring for this Kings team?<br /><br />With Kopitar and Williams (possibly) not available for the Playoffs, the Kings have a serious lack of depth up front. With San Jose, playing the best hockey in the NHL, over the last 30 games, it is going to be a difficult task for the Kings talented defence to make up for the dearth of offence. Wasn't the Marco Sturm experience the biggest flop of the season?<br /><br />The Sharks are clicking on all cylinders right now, and will prove very tough to beat. With the Stanley Cup winning goalie playing like a stud, this team is looking better and better this season and hopefully can finally get the Playoff monkey off their backs.<br /><br />(3) Detroit Red Wings vs. (6) Phoenix Coyotes:<br />&nbsp;&nbsp;Question: Will goaltending be the deciding factor in this series?<br /><br />The Phoenix Coyotes are most likely only in the Playoffs because of the play of Illya Bryzgalov. For the last two seasons he has adequately proven himself to be one of the best goalies in the business. The same cannot be true for the Red Wings. If there is any achilles heel to this teams success, aside from their age, it is their goaltending. Howard is 33rd and 36th respectively in SV% and GAA in the entire league. So while Zetterberg if he is healthy, and Datsyuk clearly outclass the bankrupt Coyotes, if Bryzgalov can outplay Howard, we could be in for an upset.<br /><br />(4) Anaheim Ducks vs. (5) Nashville Predators:<br />Question: Will the Flashy Ducks outclass the most boring team in the Playoffs?<br /><br />While Corey Perry has the entire league salivating over his play of the last month, Teemu Selanne, or also known as the Finnish Flash, has&nbsp;quietly&nbsp;been the 8th best scorer in the NHL this season, while doing it in only 73 games. They lead a top heavy Anaheim team that is surprisingly in 4th place in the West. The Preds play a grinding style of hockey, relying on hard work from four lines, as well as solid defensive game. Will this workmanship style, finally allow them to win a Playoff series? Only time will tell......<br /><br /><br />The Playoffs are a time when individual efforts can truly make the difference in the Playoffs. Check back in later this week with my list of the top ten impact players of this post season.<br /><br />Hope you enjoyed!<br /><br />Follow on twitter&nbsp;<a href="http://twitter.com/#!/Realhockeytalk">http://twitter.com/#!/Realhockeytalk</a>A.J.http://www.blogger.com/profile/01875979094724954303noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-353889957108108621.post-53425729623332005512011-04-04T20:13:00.000-04:002011-04-04T20:13:10.605-04:00After Sunday's results the East is essentially set: What are each teams strengths and weaknessesWith the Rangers beating the Flyers in the shootout, and Carolina losing to the Sabres in OT (was it not obvious that the worst possible result for the Leafs was going to happen) it would take nothing short of a miracle for the Canes or Leafs to crack the top 8 in the conference. While the Canes are only two points behind the Rangers, they are playing both the Red Wings and Penguins over their final three games, making it very unlikely that they will make up the necessary points.<br /><br />The Eastern Conference or colloquially known as the Leastern Conference, is clearly inferior this season, and does not have the same type of depth as the Western Conference teams. To put things into perspective, the Blackhawks are the last seed in the West, compared to the Rangers holding that spot in the East. The fact that the Cup champions, even with all their changes are in the eight spot, speaks volumes to the competitiveness at the top of the conference.<br /><br />Teams like Washington and Philadelphia may have a comparative advantage to their West counterparts, in the later rounds of the Playoffs, after playing inferior teams in the earlier rounds. Actually scratch that, only Philly may have an easier advantage, is there a chance that the Caps are making it out of the second round?? Nah impossible......<br /><br />Without further ado:<br /><br />1: Washington Capitals- This has been a serious transition season for Bruce Boudreau and his team. The team endured an eight game losing streak, in which only three of the teams they lost to, involve teams that are in the playoffs. They also endured an epic barrage of expletives from their coach during an intermission speech that will be remembered for the ages.<br /><a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2010/12/16/bruce-boudreau-f-bomb-speech_n_797869.html">http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2010/12/16/bruce-boudreau-f-bomb-speech_n_797869.html</a><br />The Caps, for the first time since the NHL lockout, have placed an emphasis on the defensive side of the game, in the hope that if they play the conventional style of play, they will actually have some sort of playoff success. This new style of play has impacted the scoring totals of their stars, as Backstrom has a mere 63 points and Ovechkin is going to finish with a career low in points. (Btw, what has happened to Mike Green this season?)<br /><br />Strengths: They finally have bought into a defensive scheme. They are fifth in the NHL in goals against and third in penalty killing. In the playoffs, this commitment to defense will most likely serve them well. With the firepower, albeit sometimes invisible, one would imagine that they will be able to put up enough goals come playoff time. The most telling statistic regarding the Capitals in my opinion, is their winning percentage when giving up the first goals. They have won 49% of the games that the other team has scored first. By far the best record in the NHL. The new-look Caps do seem like they are better prepared than ever to endure a long playoff run, but do not forget: Man talks and the hockey gods laugh, just look at what happened in the East first round last season.<br /><br />Weaknesses: Believe it or not, this team has been in a scoring funk the entire season. They are eighteenth in the NHL in goals per game, and seventeenth on the power play. Amongst all of the teams in the playoffs right now, the Capitals have played in the most one goal games with 44. With the first goal in a playoff game being that much more important than in the regular season, it is imperative that their PP and five on five scoring pick up significantly. All in all, if Ovechkin Backstrom and Semin (disastrous player in the second half) do not start lighting the lamp with more consistency, it could be a short playoffs for this team, for all the unexpected reasons. On the positive side, at least they will not have to face Halak this season.<br /><br />2: Philadelphia Flyers:- Why was this team only the eight seed last season? With only a few small changes to the lineup, this team has been the most consistent in the East all season, and seem primed for a repeat run at the Stanley Cup. They have goaltending that seems above average for the first time since the days of the hulking Roman Cechmanek. Even Leighton last year, did not put up particularly good numbers, he was applauded simply for being adequate. The peripheral statistics show that he was not all that much better than Boucher, and the main difference was the way the team played in front of them. Bobrovsky and Boucher, until the last 20 games have been absolutely fantastic, and hopefully can recapture their form from earlier in the season.<br /><br />Strengths: Depth at the forward and defense positions. They are the Eastern Conference version (obviously just a little worse) of the Canucks: three lines that can score and play defensive&nbsp;responsibility&nbsp;and a deep group of uber-talented defensemen. It is extremely impressive when a player like Nik Zherdev is sitting hopelessly in the press box, simply because he does not buy into the defensive system that Laviolette has put in place. He has been playing a lot better since he was placed on waivers, and combined with Versteeg, they have added a lot of talent to an already stacked team. Their depth on defense, has allowed them to not miss a beat, even though Pronger has missed thirty games this season. Imagine a fresh Pronger in the Playoffs? Going to be a huge addition for them. (Catch the "fresh" pun, I couldn't resist, he is one of the most entertaining interviews in all of hockey).<br /><br />Weaknesses: The Flyers from last year, proved the importance of going into the Playoffs on a good streak. Unfortunately for them, this season has gone in the other direction&nbsp;completely. In their last 20 games, they have gone 7-7-6, and have allowed the Capitals to catch them in the standings. The most concerning part of their cool streak is that they have given up 4 goals or more seven times in those games. To contrast, they only gave up 4 or more goals 10 times in their first 59 games of the season. Whether it is because the team is slacking, or their goaltending is coming back down to earth, this may be a cause of trouble.<br /><br />3: Boston Bruins- This team can be summed up in two words: Tim Thomas. He has been fantastic for them, and is the main reason that they are first in the division. (They would probably be there anyways with great depth, but who konws). It was also a smart move by Claude Julien &nbsp;not to overplay Thomas, in order for him to be fresh for the Playoffs, and not suffer from the Martin Brodeur syndrome: Play 70 games in the regular season, lose in first or second round of the Playoffs because I am getting older and my coaches abused me. Thomas has started only 52 games, which is one of the lower numbers for an NHL starter.<br /><br />Strengths: Aside from Tim Thomas in net, the top players on this team, have all shown a remarkable&nbsp;commitment&nbsp;to the defensive side of the game. The top six offensemen on the team, have at least a +16 rating and hold four of the top five spots in the Eastern Conference in this category. With the bench shortening in the Playoffs, and two sets of Selke-esque lines on offense, it will be extremely tough to score on this team in a playoff style game. The defense is nothing to laugh at either with three defensemen with at least a +24.<br /><br />Weaknesses: It is difficult to find a gaping weakness on this team. They have the best goal differential in the Conference, as well as the best goaltender. Perhaps the biggest flaw in this team, is their play on special teams. They rank 20th in the NHL on the PP, and 17th on the PK. Both of which must be improved if this team wants to have any&nbsp;success&nbsp;in the Playoffs. The Bruins are built eerily similar to the Pheonix Coyotes. A fantastic goaltender, a very steady defense, and a good offense by committee. The issue with both teams is that they have a lack of firepower, and do not have that one player (thanks to Matt Cooke) that can pull them out of a scoring slump. It has not hurt them so far, and hopefully they will be able to continue playing at such a high level.<br /><br />4: Pittsburgh Penguins- If the position of any team in the standings makes no sense it is that of the Pens. Crosby has missed half the season with a concussion. Malkin has missed a larger part of the season with an injury, (and even when healthy he was having an awful year) and there offense has been comprised of a group of minor league players and a player that acts like a criminal (you know who that is) for most of the season. Marc Andre Fleury started off the season with a brutal stretch, where even the ultimate backup goaltender Brent Johnson temporarily usurped him in the starting position. The Penguins acquired James Neal with the hope that he would provide them with the spark on offense that they needed. However, in line with their peculiar season, he has only scored once in eighteen games. Through all this, the team has 100 points, third most in the conference. A lot of credit should go to their coach Dan Bylsma, for putting in a system that helps hide their flaws with all their injuries.<br /><br />Strengths: Well if Sidney Crosby is able to return for the playoffs at full strength, they have the best player in the league completely rested. Another strength of this team is their defensive game. They are a strong, physical unit, that also can contribute on the offensive side of the ice. They are tied for 4th in the NHL in goal differential, a stat which is extremely impressive considering all of the firepower that they have been missing from their lineup. Unlike Boston, the Pens are also the best team in the NHL on the penalty kill. Not only do they play good defense in even strength situations, they also are responsible in penalized situations. While their power play is poor, a lot of that can be contributed, to Crosby being out of the lineup, and hopefully for the playoffs they will be back on track.<br /><br />Weaknesses: While it is great that they have the best PK in the league, they also are second in the NHL with the most times being penalized at 310. This cannot continue in the playoffs, and with "you know who" suspended for the first round, it hopefully will not. Also, in the Playoffs there are no shootouts, and out of the Penguins 46 wins this season, 9 have come via shootout. They have the second highest winning% at .750 in the shootout, points that they will have a harder to getting in the Playoffs. The shootout has significantly skewed the Penguins record, and is not a fair indication in projecting their playoff performance.<br /><br />5: Tampa Bay Lightning- The Lightning have made a significant turnaround from their previous three seasons, in which they did not make the Playoffs. The new GM, Steve Yzerman has brought in nice pieces to surround his superstars Stamkos, St Louis and Lecavalier. They finally have adequate goaltending with the antiquated Dwayne Roloson, and with Brewer and Marc-Andre Bergeron added to the &nbsp;defense, they are steady on both ends of the ice. They can go head to head against any team in the league, in top tier talent.<br /><br />Strengths: The chemistry between Stamkos and St Louis is unparalleled in the Eastern Conference.They are a dynamic duo, and for most of the season, have been unstoppable. (If someone has seen Stamkos lately, let him know that he has given up the biggest scoring lead in NHL history, and should not wait again until the last day of the season to get it back). Tampa uses its superstars, to get itself back into games, in a similar fashion that Washington does, and has a .450 winning percentage, when giving up the first goal. If Stamkos can get back on track, and all the new players continue to perform, this team can be in for a long playoff run.<br /><br />Weaknesses: The first thing that comes to mind about the Tampa Bay Lightning. is that they are 20 games over .500 and only have a goal differential of +3. This number implies that they often get blown out when they lose. This is actually the case, out of their 24 losses this season, 14 of them have been by three goals or more. It seems that even though they often come back from one goal deficits, it is possible that they "give up" when the deficit reaches two. In the playoffs every team needs a "never say die" attitude, and that is something that the Lightning desperately need to enforce in every game. Also, Stamkos and Gagne (the biggest&nbsp;disappointment&nbsp;all season??) are seriously struggling and Lecavalier is day to day with an injury, and if they do not start producing like they are capable of, things may not turn out too well for this young group. The last ten days Martin St Louis has been carrying the team on his diminutive shoulders and will need help come playoff time.<br /><br />6: Montreal Canadiens- Starting with the 6th seed, there is a big drop from the five higher seeds. While Montreal is a good team, there is a serious&nbsp;dichotomy&nbsp;in the East. Nevertheless, after what we saw last season against the Capitals, any team in the NHL is capable of winning a playoff series, and that is why we play the games. It has been an interesting season for the Canadiens. Carey Price was supposed to be a terrible goalie, and the team was supposed to fail. That has not happened, and even with all of the injuries to the defense, the Candiens remain one of the better defensive teams in the NHL. As it stands now, the Habs will meet the Bruins in the first round of the playoffs. After the Chara hit, won't it be an amazing series, tensions rising already!!<br /><br />Strengths: The Canadiens, seem to do everything a little above average. They are in the top ten in both PP and PK, they get scoring from three lines and the backend, and they have a goalie that is capable of winning a &nbsp;game for his team. That is the ultimate strength of this team: when healthy (always a big "if" with this team) they do not have any significant holes. One interesting point of note, is that their "ROW" or regulation +overtime wins= 39, higher than both the Penguins and the&nbsp;Lightning, a sign that bodes well for a successful playoff run.<br /><br />Weaknesses: They have no superstar on either offense or defense. Only one player on the team has over 50 points, and only one player has over 25 goals. Cammalleri and Gomez especially will need to produce more for this team to have any sort of measured success. Also, their defense corps have taken a huge hit to injury, with Markov, Spacek and Gorges all injured. They will be leaning heavily on a lot of players that have never been placed in this role before. Last but not least, is Carey Price's workload. He has played in 70 games this season and must be feeling tired, one only hopes that he can hold up for the playoffs.<br /><br />7: Buffalo Sabres- The Sabres were swallowed in mediocrity until their best forward, Derek Roy got injured. For the majority of the season, they were on the outside looking in on the playoff picture, only recently grabbing a spot with their hot play against every team not named Toronto (surprisingly). They have received serious support from Drew Stafford, Tyler Ennis and Nathan Gerbe, and owe a lot of their success to the growth of those three players. After being the division champions last season with essentially the same team, and Roy already skating, I do not think that anyone wants to play this team in the playoffs.<br /><br />Strengths: Ryan Miller. If you are not convinced that he can steal four games all by himself, you may need to watch the Olympics from last year all over again. After having a little bit of a sub par year by his standards, and sustaining an injury last week, the extra rest may have been the best thing for him. He has only played in 64 games this season, and should be ready for the playoffs. With the team getting healthier, they could be a darkhorse in the Eastern Conference.<br /><br />Weaknesses: The Sabres are in the bottom half of the league in Hits (29th), F0 % (25th) and Takeaways (20th). For a team that is weaker on star talent, it is imperative that they excel in these areas. They are not capable of beating the top teams goal for goal, and need to&nbsp;play&nbsp;a smarter game than the other teams to find success. If they are not able to improve in these areas, and Stafford comes back down to earth, it may be diffcult for them to keep pace.<br /><br />8: New York Rangers: After losing to the Flyers on the last day of the regular season in the shootout last season, they essentially punched their ticket to the big dance, with their revenge this season. Erik Christensen and Wojtek Wolski, both out-waited Bobrovsky and put the puck past him for the huge win. While Gaborik has completely dissappeared this season, Ryan Callahan and Brandon Dubinsky both have stepped up and become legitimate stars in this league. If Gaborik and Wolski can become the players that they were last season, this team is a lot better than their record shows.<br /><br />Strenghts: Like the Sabres, they rely so heavily on the remarkable consistent play of their goaltender. Henrik Lundqvist has been the best kept secret in the NHL this season. He has eleven shutouts and has kept his team in almost every game he has played. The Rangers also have five 20-goal scorers on their roster, displaying their ability to get goals from all their different lines. Although they do not score too often, they have so many different players that are capable of getting that big goal. However, what it will come down to in the playoffs for them will be the play of Lundqvist; they live and die with his performances.<br /><br />Weaknesses: It may turn out to be a blessing in disguise for this team that they open the playoffs on the road. They are the worst home team amongst the top sixteen, with only 18 wins to their credit. The problem is that in the playoffs, opposing buildings become significantly louder &nbsp;and home ice becomes that much more of an asset. Unless the Rangers improve on their own ice, they will have a very very quick playoffs.<br /><br />The East is not as deep as the Western Conference this season, and will not provide the same kind of excitement in first round matchups. However, the top teams in the East do match up quite nicely with those in the West, and should provide the same amount of excitement in the later rounds and in the Finals. Cannot wait for the games to begin!<br /><br />Hope you enjoyed!<br />Follow on twitter&nbsp;<a href="http://twitter.com/#!/Realhockeytalk">http://twitter.com/#!/Realhockeytalk</a>A.J.http://www.blogger.com/profile/01875979094724954303noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-353889957108108621.post-21745913357483778382011-03-30T23:24:00.001-04:002011-03-31T18:13:08.248-04:00Strengths and Weaknesses of the Western Conference Playoff teams.The Playoffs and golf courses are almost upon us, and while I am curious which member of the Florida Panthers (my bet is on Stephen Weiss, as he has every May to practice) has the best tee shot, I am more interested in who is most primed for a long post-season run, and what aspects of each team's game, may help or hinder their pursuits. <br /><br />I feel that it is only right for the Western Conference to be&nbsp;featured&nbsp;first. They are the vastly superior conference, as their inter-conference dominance clearly proves. They are 57 games over .500 against the East this season, while the East is only 15 games over .500 against the West. I know I know, those overtime games through all these calculations off, but the numbers are still telling. Also, the top ten teams in the West would qualify for the Eastern Conference Playoffs, despite having to play against each other consistently.<br /><br /><br />So without further ado:<br /><br />1. Vancouver Canucks: How on earth is this team under the salary cap?!?! They have the most explosive top two lines in the NHL, a defence corps that is six deep with actual talent, (not overpaid checkers, that were popular in Montreal and subsequently rewarded a five year contract with a no movement clause by a rival team) and one of the best and most expensive goalies in the NHL.<br /><br />Strengths: Their depth. Nobody has been more crippled by injuries on the back end than the Canucks. Salo, Edler, Ballard, Bieksa, and Hamhuis have all missed at least 15 games this season, and they still have not missed a beat. Also on the offensive side, they have &nbsp;top end talent that only the Capitals, Sharks, Lightning, Ducks and Blackhawks can match. (Will the Pens ever get Malkin and Crosby to play a full season together again). Also, Luongo has proven in the Olympics that he has the ability to be a big time goaltender, and on this team it looks like he just will have to ensure that he doesn't play a brutal game. Their greatest strength though is obvious: the telepathic connection between their dynamic twin pack.<br /><br />Weaknesses: Luck. Injuries have decimated their defence and their checking forwards, and have taken a significant toll on this team. Luckily, aside from Burrows missing the first ten games of the season, none of the top tier offensemen have missed any time. But with the luck they have been having, you simply never know.<br /><br />On that note, I would like to wish Manny Malhotra a speedy and healthy recovery. We are all rooting for you.<br /><br />2. Detroit Red Wings: The most experienced team in the NHL simply never goes away. With the longest streak of playoff appearances amongst the four major sports, this team defines consistency. While they have a lot of has-beens like Modano, Bertuzzi and Kris Draper, they do possess a lot of young talent, that provides the spark of energy that keeps those old legs running. (It also helps that Modano hardly played this season. Maybe with the fresh legs, he will be a difference maker for the first time since 2006. Shh, don't let him in on the secret that he is washed up: he may be the only one that has not noticed).<br /><br />Strengths: Experience. They have done it so many times before. To put this in perspective Nicklas Lidstrom, Thomas Holmstrom and Kris Draper won a Cup for this team when Jeff Skinner was five years old. He had not even begun elementary school! Also, they have so much goal scoring firepower from the offence and the defence, it is very difficult to stop their attack when everyone is healthy. Another strength of this team is their coaching and management. They are coached by perhaps the best coach in the NHL, since another Detroit legend, Scotty Bowman.<br /><br />Weaknesses: Simply put, their goaltending is more than suspect. Jimmy Howard, the number one goaltender by default, has not shown that he is reliable in pressure-filled situations. Even with such a strong defence in front of him, none of his peripheral statistics are amongst the top thirty goaltenders. It would be hilarious, yet not surprising, if we ended up seeing Joey McDonald in the Playoffs. (Update: Not gonna happen after Thursday nights performance, where he let up seven goals!)<br /><br />3. San Jose Sharks: Remember how awful this team was for the first half of the season? The only players on the team that were showing up were Ryan Clowe, Logan Couture and Anterro Nittymaki (where did he go?!?) and they were treading in tenth place in the Western Conference. Since the first forty games of the season, this team has been the hottest in the NHL and after last season's trip to the Conference Final, they look primed to make another deep run into the playoffs.<br /><br />Strengths: It should not be underestimated, the importance of peaking at the right time in the NHL season. Just look at the Flyers from last season for a perfect example of this. They got hot at the right time and went all the way to the Finals, only to lose at the hands of the least dramatic Cup-Winning goal of all time. The Sharks have only lost four times in regulation since January 15th and have been winning because of their combination of strong goaltending and the semi-rejuvenation of their once unstoppable top line.<br /><br />Weaknesses: The Sharks have gone through significant stretches where Marleau, Thornton and Heatley have done absolutely nothing. Heatley will not even crack the 30 goal&nbsp;plateau (he is at 24)&nbsp;after having at least 39 in every full season he has played since he was a rookie. If the big boys choose not to show up in the Playoffs and Pavelski, Clowe and Couture are leading this team, count them out first round. Unless Niemi can continue his strong play since his 15.36 GAA (that number might actually be an understatement) in the first twenty games. Wouldn't Hawks-Sharks be the most intriguing first round matchup? Remarkable!<br /><br />4. Phoenix Coyotes: They did it again! Yandle, Bryzgalov, Doan and who else?? On paper they may be tied with the Panthers and Thrashers for the most dull lineup in all of hockey. They buy into the system that the coaching staff has instituted, and they execute it to perfection. Their success should be a ray of hope for teams that cannot afford to spend to the salary cap, or just simply have no talent.<br /><br />Strengths: They have a phenomenal grasp on the team game and a goalie that has proven throughout the last two regular seasons that he has the ability to stand on his head. While the offence on this team looks anemic (on the surface, but the sum of their parts is much better than they are individually), they have an extremely deep defensive team. Yandle, Aucoin, Morris, Klesla, Jovanovski and Roszival is as good a defensive group that you will find outside of British Columbia.<br /><br />Weaknesses: Special Teams is going to kill this team. They rank only 22nd in the NHL on the PP and are 26th on the PK. For a team that will probably have a more difficult time scoring goals in the Playoffs then most, it will be necessary for them to improve on these numbers. Also, they have been shorthanded 284 times this season, which is the 11th most in the NHL, a number they definitely need to improve on.<br /><br />5. Los Angeles Kings: At the beginning of the season, people would have been surprised to see the Kings this low on the conference seedings. Until the last six weeks, things have not gone according to plan for this team. Bernier has not taken the starting job (Quick has been a great goalie this season) Simmonds and Stoll did not provide the offence that most were hoping, and most significantly Doughty did not have the big breakout season that everyone expected. All in all though, this team has the talent (or had with Kopitar and Williams) to make some noise in the playoffs.<br /><br />Strengths: They play a fantastic defensive game. With Doughty, Jack Johnson leading a talented backend they &nbsp;are 4th in penalty kill and 6th in goals against respectively in the NHL. While they have not received the offence from d-men that they may have expected, their coverage in their own zone hase been outstanding.<br /><br />Weaknesses: Injuries. Kopitar is done for the rest of the season and the playoffs. This is a huge blow to their chances at playoffs success. He does everything for their team. When he got injured he was leading the team in goals,points,shots,GWG and perhaps the most telling statistic +/-. He is an impossible piece to replace, and combined with the injuries that Williams sustained, it will be almost impossible for them to overcome these losses.<br /><br />On the positive side, look for this team to be the second best team in the West next season, with a more experienced lineup. You read it here first!<br /><br />6. Nashville Predators: This team is built in a similar fashion to the Pheonix Coyotes. Very good goaltending, a star defenceman surrounded by a very strong group around him, and a bunch of no-name slightly above average forwards. Surprisingly this team has made it to the playoffs in five of the last six seasons, and has never won a playoff series. Barry Trotz runs a remarkable system, in which he maximizes value from his players in the regular season, but it seems like he just never has enough talent to win in the playoffs. I am not sure their luck will change if they end up drawing the loaded Sharks in the first round this year either.<br /><br />Strengths: They have fantastic defensive play. Pekka Rinne has been the most underrated goalie in the NHL and should finish as the runner up for the Vezina behind the remarkable Tim Thomas. Shea Weber and his fantastic linemate Suter, lead a young and talented group of defenceman that allow the third fewest goals per game in the NHL, and have the sixth best PK. Another strength of this team is their play on home ice. They are only one of three teams in the NHL along with Boston and Vancouver, to have less than ten losses at home. If they can sneak into the fourth seed, maybe they will be able to finally win a series!<br /><br />Weaknesses: One word Offence. They are the only team in the NHL(not including the Senators which frankly post trade deadline are not NHL caliber), that does not have a player with 20 goals or 50 points on their roster. For them to have any extended success they need to receive more production from their top players. Mike Fisher has not provided that spark this team has needed since he came to Nasville to play for this team ( maybe he came just to be close to Carrie Underwood). On the positive side though, Martin Erat is playing the most inspired hockey of his career, and leads the team in points despite missing fifteen games.<br />P.S. David Legwand- the world is still waiting for you to prove that you are more than a massive bust.<br /><br />7. Anaheim Ducks: This team has shown a remarkable amount of resiliency all season. They lost Getzlaf for an extended period of time with what essentially was a broken face injury. Their All-Star goaltender Hiller, has been injured for the last six weeks with&nbsp;vertigo&nbsp;and fatigue. Yet, they have&nbsp;continuously&nbsp;stayed in the hunt, due to the magnificent play of Corey Perry and Teemu Selanne. If they can get Hiller back, they can cause some serious noise in the first round.<br /><br />Strengths: They have fantastic firepower at the top of their lineup. Selanne, Perry, Getzlaf and Ryan, may be the best group of four forwards on any team in the NHL. Also, they have a very solid combination of offense and defence from the backend. Toni Lydman, in what may be the biggest surprise of the season, has the highest +/- in the league, and Lubomir Visnovsky has the most points in the league as well with 64. And with Fowler and Beauchemin on the second line, this team is better defensively than most people give them credit for.<br /><br />Weaknesses: The top six forwards on this team are, Getzlaf, Perry, Ryan, Selanne, Koivu and Blake. Name one of their bottom six forwards? (They just picked up Ruutu, so not sure if I count him).......... I would venture to say that only 20 percent of hockey fans outside of California are able to do it. They are absolutely awful. Against some of the powerhouse teams out West, those lines will get completely exposed. Don't feel embarrassed to look up their bottom six forwards, nobody else knows them either.<br /><br />8. Chicago Blackhawks: The Stanley Cup champs are in the eight hole, and with the prospects of facing the best team in the league in the first round, the all-difficult repeat will be a daunting task. After the Marty Turco experiment was a&nbsp;colossal failure, they decided to return to their formula of success: a random old rookie goalie, that comes out of nowhere and plays well. So far it has worked for them. Corey Crawford is one of the main reasons this team will even be in the Playoffs in two weeks from now.<br /><br />Strengths: Star talent. With Toews, Kane, Hossa, and Sharp on offence and Keith, Seabrook and Campbell on the backend, this team has the stars to match up with anyone. Also, they all are Cup Winners, and know exactly what it takes to get to the finish line. For the new guys that do not know what the experience is like, I am sure they can just ask Hossa, after he had spent the previous three seasons searching for that Cup.<br /><br />Weaknesses: The salary cap robbed the Hawks of a dynasty. The loss of Ladd, Versteeg and Byfuglien were all a product of the new era that we live in. The replacement players have been playing pretty well, but have not provided that secondary spark the stars were accustomed to receiving. Unless guys like Michael Frolik, who has only 7 points since coming over in a trade from Florida can elevate their game, Lord Stanley's mug will not return to downtown Chicago. Other than that, this team has strong talent, and their main weakness is their seeding due to their poor play in the beginning of the season. I do not think that Vancouver would be particularly enthralled with the idea of playing the Hawks in the first round of the Playoffs.<br /><br />All of these eight teams, possess either remarkable talent, or remarkable team play and whatever the&nbsp;match-ups&nbsp;turn out to be, I can guarantee one thing: No series will be easy for any team. Cannot wait for the games to begin!!<br /><br />Hope you enjoyed!!<br /><br />Follow on Twitter @<a href="http://twitter.com/#!/Realhockeytalk">http://twitter.com/#!/Realhockeytalk</a>A.J.http://www.blogger.com/profile/01875979094724954303noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-353889957108108621.post-57953998537261197102011-03-23T01:51:00.001-04:002011-03-23T02:03:11.301-04:00Giggy in Florida and Sabres playing amazing, it is time to think about next year.After a disturbing loss to the post trade deadline AHL Florida Panthers last Thursday night, the Leafs season unfortunately all but ended. While this has been an expected outcome, even with the late push the team has made the last twenty games, &nbsp;it is still crushing to us playoffs crazed fans. Nevertheless, there still is work to do over the next ten games. The Leafs must still compete if only to ensure that Boston, who will be a contending team for a while, ends up with a lower first round pick this season. Also, the next ten games provide an opportunity to evaluate which players are key building blocks for the establishment of a championship team.<br /><br />The Leafs have 24 million dollars in cap space to spend on filling out their roster for next season. While for the previous few seasons Leafs fans have grown accustomed to the big money being spent on Niklas Hagman, Mike Komisarek, Jeff Finger and Jason Blake, hope still remains that money can be spent wisely in the future. While not all of these significant mishaps can be attributed to Burke, I think he has realized after the Beauchemin, Komisarek disaster that it is not worth overpaying for free agents to expedite the process. That being said, the money needs to go somewhere, and I personally hope that the majority of it does not get spent in this very very weak free agent class. A weak free agency class, breeds panic amongst GMs and they make foolish signing decisions, just ask Glen Sather about Gomez and Drury......(And no, they should not trade for a contractual disaster like Lecavalier either.) Before discussing free agency it is imperative that the Leafs understand the value of the players on their current roster that will become free agents on July 1. <br /><br />The biggest component of the roster that needs to be re-signed is the defensive pairing of Gunnarsson and Schenn. Both are restricted free agents, and have shown enough talent and work ethic to be re-signed. While Schenn will command top dollar (and I think every Leaf fan will be happy to give it to him), Gunarsson will probably command a 1.5 million dollar per season number. To put that in perspective Lebda's cap number is a ratio of 1:1.45 million per goal he has scored as a Leaf. ( Hint: He has one goal. In other words he sucks for an offensive defenceman.) The most important thing to keep in mind, is that even though Schenn is only making 875K at the moment, his cap hit is 2.975 because of his signing bonus as a rookie. So while his salary may rise to approximately 4.5 million, the hit to the cap, which is the only number that any Leafs fan should actually care about, does not go up too dramatically.<br /><br />Burke is going to have to &nbsp;make some tough decisions between the pipes for next season. First things first: Giggy must go. With Gustavsson under contract, and Reimer playing like Felix the Cat, there is no room for him on the roster, Gustavsson cannot be sent down to the minors without clearing waivers (which he most definitely will not) and imagine the uproar that the Leafs fans would make if Reimer did not start with the team?!? You thought the anger directed at Wilson for sitting him in Florida was bad........ Also, there seems to be a new trend in the cap era of the NHL, that it is not worth it to invest significant money in the goalie position, rather that money should be used to improve the rest of the team. Aside from Luongo , and I am not sure that the Canucks would not rather have Schneider in net and use his 7 mil elsewhere, none of the other top five teams in the NHL standings have a top ten paid goaltender. Rather, they use young salary controlled prospects, and incorporate them into a system with an absolutely stacked defence. (Look at Detroit and Philly for &nbsp;perfect examples). Burke may be smart to follow suit and use the money saved in Giggy's contract and attract an Ehrhoffesque player and a rugged dman, you know, the sorta player we expected Komisarek to be.<br /><br />When it comes to the offence, the situation becomes murky. Macarthur and Bozak (and his crippling 3.75 mil cap hit), are the two biggest names that come off of the books. I think these two players both fall under the category of what I would call the Stephen Weiss problem. The theory goes like this: Neither player has the skillset to be the rugged and defensively responsible third line players that they should be, but at the same time, their offence is not up to standard of a championship calibre top six forward. Essentially, they can only have a key role, with the money that comes with it, on a bad team. No team with Macarthur and Bozak in their top six will win a championship, and neither player will ever embrace a Colby Armstrong role on a Leafs team. The only player less impressive than Bozak's -26 while playing with Kessel first line minutes in the NHL is Simon Gagne, how is he a -21 in only 54 games for the Tampa Bay Lightning? I think that Yzerman may wish he had Meszaros after all. I know that Grabovski and Kulemin have played well with Clarkie this season, but I think in the long run it may be best for the Leafs to convert Kadri to the wing and have him play on a line with those two, and hopefully create a dynamic second line for many years to come.<br /><br />I know this dampens the exciting Kessel-Kadri duo that all Leafs fans have been waiting for, but be realistic neither of them have any idea how to play a legitimate two way game. Unless Jere Lehtinen is joining them on that line, your looking at two goals given up a game. While I am a huge fan of Kessel, I think that he really needs to work on his defensive responsibilities. The addition of Lupul to his line has really helped him improve in that area. Over the last 17 games, Kessel is a +1, comparing that to a -21 number the previous 56, it is a truly remarkable turnaround. This is why I believe that the Leafs need to keep those two together, and have Kadri play with Kuly and Grabo to create a deeper top six. Sorry Clarke, you were a solid piece to the team this year, but I think this is a case where you peaked with talented linemates and can now only hinder the future success of the team. And to you Bozak, sorry but you definitely had your chance. Nobody would be happier if you showed your worth over the next 9 games than me. Good Luck!<br /><br />The rest of the free agents on the current Leafs roster are Crabb, Boyce, Rosehill, Sjostrom and everyone's favorite Leaf, Tim Brent. Rosehill should sign a minor league contract and prove to be a sufficient backup should we lose Orr again. Crabb and Boyce have been nice filll-ins on the......... first line (sounds retarded I know) and at the right price would be great on a two way contract. They do deserve it. Tim Brent on the other hand, fully deserves a new contract. He has played the point on the power play, has been our best penalty killer at times this season, and has done an exemplary job in the third line role. Sjostrom, a similar player to Brent, is probably going to be shown the door.<br /><br />So what do the Leafs do with their desperate need for a first line center? There are two distinct approaches that can be taken; each with their own upside. The first option is to make a serious pitch at a long term fixture. Without speculating too much, Brad Richards is a name that will always pop up in discussion. He would most likely command a 5/40 million dollar deal to come to Toronto. The Leafs can most definitely fit him under the salary cap next season and he will provide for them some much needed leadership amongst the forwards as well. Another option that is much less Brian Burke style (and won't go over well with the fans), is to find a stop gap player for the likes of Joe Colborne to make it to the big league team. The gain with this approach is that when the team is finally ready to compete for a championship, they will not be tied to long contracts and they will be able to fill their needs at a more appropriate time. The reason I am&nbsp;inclined to the second approach is because I do not think that Richards puts the Leafs into the top four teams in the Eastern Conference, and it is a significant risk for a player of that age to invest a five year deal.<br /><br />Of course the Leafs can chase after RFA's Stamkos and Parise, but after the Kessel trade and Leafs nation foolishly being frustrated with Burke, do you think he may try and pull one off again? Burke is notorious for being anti-offer sheet on someone else's RFA, so if he does go after these superstars expect a sign and trade.<br /><br />Whatever happens, I think all Leafs fans are just hoping that Burke can avoid the business model of all his predecessors: "I will take an incredibly stupid risk, because if I do not, I will lose my job" With that logic in mind, I would just like to thank JFJ again for sending Tuuka Rask for Andrew Raycroft. Haunting us forever.<br /><br />Hope you enjoyed! <br /><br />Follow on Twitter @realhockeytalkA.J.http://www.blogger.com/profile/01875979094724954303noreply@blogger.com6tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-353889957108108621.post-46752824399847048902011-03-13T16:15:00.000-04:002011-03-13T16:15:58.033-04:00What should the Leafs do with Komisarek?When the Leafs got rid of Beauchemin, I was ecstatic. Aside from the players that were obtained in the transaction, I felt that the Leafs were able to rid themselves of a player that seemed content with mediocre play and ultimately did not fit into the team's long term plans. With the length of his contract being relatively short, and combined with his former playoff success, the Leafs were able to parlay a mistake from the horrible 2009 off-season, into some pieces moving forward.<br /><br />However the prospects of moving the other big (we thought at the time big, now just brutal) addition to this team Mike Komisarek, will unfortunately never happen. He was signed that off-season to a 5 year/22.5 million dollar deal. Since signing the deal, the physical defenceman that was an All-Star and former fan favorite in Montreal has completely faded. The Leafs have instead received a defenceman that still has has no offensive game, but now also seems to be completely inept in his own zone. While his cap hit of 4.5 million is probably at least 2 million dollars too high, it is not nearly as crippling as some make it out to be. To put things in perspective, Vincent Lecavalier has an 11yr/85 million dollar deal, that expires when he is the ripe old age of 40. That contract may not allow the Lightning to sign both Hedman and Stamkos, now that is crippling. (I sure hope Yzerman will be able to produce more magic and figure something out.)<br /><br />Komisraek the entire year, has had a penchant for poor defensive decisions and bad penalties. Probably none were worse than his cross check Thursday night against the Flyers' Dan Carcillo. He got a five minute major, a number many Leafs fans consider a small price to pay for removing him from the game, and immediately put the Leafs down on the scoreboard, early in the first period. The coach, had no sympathy for his player after the game, saying that the right call was made, and limited his ice time the next game to a little over nine minutes.<br /><br />This clip highlights his poor decision making. Even had this pass been made properly, I think everyone knows that throwing a puck in front of your own net on the PK, even to a teammate is always a poor decision.<br /><a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u1wxjohPHtc">http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u1wxjohPHtc</a><br /><br />The worst aspect of the Komisarek contract is his limited no-trade clause which allows him to submit a list of 12 teams to be traded to, as well as his no movement clause. The no-trade clause is absolutely meaningless, because, there is not a single team out there in the NHL that has interest in him at that cap number. The infintely larger issue is the no-movement clause. This does not allow the Leafs to waive him, (and then put him on re-entry waivers, where he may get claimed for half the price) or even send him to the minors. This leaves them essentially with two choices, continue to play him, or to buy him out.<br /><br />If the Leafs were to buy him out, which would only happen if the Teacher's Pension did actually sell their shares, it would not bode well for future free agent expenditures, and attempting to lure them to the city. On the other hand, with a player like Gardiner ready to make the jump to the NHL as early as next year, the ice time for Komisarek may be even less available. With three seasons left on his deal, this may be the Leafs only option, unless his play and that of his partner Lebda's as well can significantly improve.<br /><br />What you think the Leafs should do? Would love to hear your feedback!<br /><br />Hope you enjoyed! Follow on twitter @realhockeytalkA.J.http://www.blogger.com/profile/01875979094724954303noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-353889957108108621.post-37356315339367088542011-03-09T03:32:00.003-05:002011-03-09T04:48:42.536-05:00Handing out the NHL awards (to this point)The end of the season is rapidly approaching and it is time to sit down and figure out, who really has made a difference for his team this season and is deserving of recognition. Each of the people on this list have provided the kind of performances that teams need to be successful. Sorry for not posting for a while, this one took quite some time to write up.<br /><br />Vezina: Let's open it up plain and simply,&nbsp;Tim&nbsp;Thomas will win the Vezina. This point is not even up for discussion, who else would you give it to? Ondrej Pavelec came roaring back from a fainting spell, to put on maybe the most impressive thirty game spree,&nbsp;but has since been one of the worst five goalies in the NHL. In his last 17 NHL games he has gone 3-10-4, while giving up at least 4 goals in 9 of those games (nobody actually thought Atlanta could have a good goalie right?). Carey Price, Pekka Rinne and Henrik Lundqvist have had extremely successful years, and in a standard year, would all be legitimate candidates. However, Thomas simply takes the cake. He is number one in SV%, GAA and Win% amongst all goalies that have played 45 games. He is winning the goalie version of the Triple Crown and barring a Pavelecesque collapse (seriously, no pun intended), the trophy is his to lose.<br /><br />Vezina Runner-Ups<br />1: Carey Price- You think he has made people forget about Halak?<br />&nbsp;2: Henrik Lundqvist:- How does he continue to do this year in and year out? Already nine shutouts.<br />&nbsp;&nbsp;3: Pekka Rinne -Plays in front of the most underrated defence in the NHL, otherwise he is second on this list.<br />&nbsp;4: Jonathon Quick -Why does he always get rocked in the media for being a stopgap for Bernier, he is amazing, and it seems he will continue to be a top NHL goaltender for many seasons to come.<br /><br /><br />Selke Trophy: I think it is time this trophy was renamed the, "good offensive player that has a defensive&nbsp;conscience&nbsp;trophy". I am not sure what has caused the prompt change, but the four winners before the lockout were Madden, Peca, Lehtinen and Draper. These four players were all defined by their defensive prowess. How many players nowadays, do people say wow, he is a stud shutdown forward? The market for the Shayne Corsons of the world seems to have dried up. Since the lockout, two players have received the trophy: Brind Amour and Datsyuk. Not to take anything away from these players, but one must think that other players defensive prowess has somewhat been ignored.<br /><br />This year Datsyuk has been injured, and his +/- is a little bit underwhelming (+11, on the third best team in the NHL), and the most&nbsp;subjective&nbsp;trophy is ripe for the taking. The general consensus that the most important statistics for the Selke, are takeaways, Faceoff % and +/-. By analyzing these stats, we conclude with a clear winner: Jonathon Toews. He is second in the NHL in takeaways, (surprisingly behind Jumbo Joe, who deserves zero recognition as he is a -7 on one of the best teams in the NHL) top ten in the NHL in faceoff %, amongst players that have taken at least 500 on the season, and 5th amongst forwards (first not including players from Boston and Vancouver) in +/-. What is most important about Toews faceoff percentage is that he is also in the top five on percentage of team faceoffs taken, which means that not only is he good at taking them, but he is winning important ones too. Maybe we are actually seeing a new wave of players in the NHL, that are the most offensively gifted and possess the best defensive conscience.<br /><br />.Selke Runner-Ups<br />1: Ryan Kesler- This guy&nbsp;consistently&nbsp;plays heavy minutes on the penalty kill.<br />&nbsp;2: Pavel Datsyuk- Remember the award is mainly subjective.<br />&nbsp;3: Matt Cooke:- He does have the most SH points, and he is consistently defending his personality.<br />746: Tyler Bozak- This guy has no defensive orientation, worst +/- amongst forwards in the NHL.<br /><br /><br /><br />Dirtiest Player: This should be called the Matt Cooke award, because he probably deserves it every single year. It is called by many to be the year of the headshots, and I figured maybe an award should be instituted in its honor.<br /><br />The clear cut winner of this award is Trevor Gillies. He simply doesn't seem to get it. After getting suspended for nine games for a brutal attack on Eric Tangradi, he goes and attacks Cal Clutterbuck (a really solid young power forward), and knocks him out with a concsusion as well. If this doesn't deserve to give him the award, maybe his dirty mustache puts him over the top.<br />.<br />Dirty Player Runner-Ups<br />1: &nbsp;Matt Cooke- He is just probably surprised that he is not first.<br />2: Sean Avery- Actions combined with verbal abuse puts him in the top five.<br />&nbsp;3: Brent Johnson- That was one dirty knockout, ask Dipietro.<br />&nbsp;4: Colin Campbell- Intentionally gives lenient punishments in order to keep his job.<br /><br /><br />Jack Adams: This award goes to the best coach in the NHL, and along with the Vezina may be the most obvious of all the trophies. Jacques Lemaire signed on to coach the NHL worst Devils, and since he joined the team, they have been the best in the NHL. While not all of their success can be attributed to his coaching, (Kovalchuk finally remembered how to score) this sort of turnaround cannot be ignored.<br /><br />Jack Adams Runner-Ups<br />1: Dan Bylsma- He has Crosby and Malkin injured 30 games each, and still challenging for the Conference title, that is simply amazing.<br />&nbsp;2: Barry Trotz- How does he do it every single season? The Predators may have the most anemic offence of all time, and they are still only one point out of a playoff spot. (Great trivia question- who is the only Predator to ever score more than 75 points?)<br />&nbsp;3: Brent Sutter- Realizing that his brother Darryl Sutter was the problem with the Flames, and getting him to finally resign.<br />&nbsp;4: Ron Wilson- For putting up with the Toronto media every single day.<br /><br /><br />Norris Trophy: This is an extremely competitive field this year with the emergence of a lot of new top tier defenceman. The popular pick is the ageless Nicklas Lidstrom, with his remarkable comeback season. However, I have a very difficult time giving the best defensman trophy to a player that has a minus rating. While I am not advocating that a player like Andrej Meszaros or Adam McQuaid (who???) to receive it, the winner should at least have a token positive rating.Which leads me to Kieth Yandle (a +1!). He is tied for first amongst defenceman in points with 54, which is also tops on his team. Yandle is a strong offensive defenceman, that plays a ton of minutes and provides that necessary offensive punch to a Coyotes team that has an extremely mediocre group of forwards.<br /><br />Norris Runner-Ups<br />&nbsp;1: Nicklas Lidstrom- Always playing against the opposing teams top line. Has been a sparkplug on the power play this season.<br />2: Kris Letang- The favorite earlier in the season, has slowed lately, look for him to be a contender for this award for years to come.<br />&nbsp;3: Tobias Enstrom- The engine that makes the Byfgulien train work.<br />4: Christian Ehrhoff- For not getting injured!<br /><br />Calder Trophy- If someone predictedeven three out of the nominees on this list, can they please contact the scouting department for the Toronto Maple Leafs and offer them their services!!&nbsp;All the favorites of the rookies on this list have come from absolutely nowhere. While the Taylor/Tyler debate may have ended with the Oilers making the right decision, neither of them will win this award. If I would be running the show, I would give the trophy to all three men at the top of this list. However, for the sake of this article every category does need a winner and Corey Crawford has separated himself from the rest. He has been a rock all season in goal for the Hawks this season and after the Turco experiment worked out horribly, they have a lot to be thankful for.<br /><br />Calder Runner-Ups<br />1: Logan Couture- He came up huge early in the season when all of the big guns were faltering. With 25 goals and a +17 rating, he has been a real find for the Sharks.<br />2: Jeff Skinner- He is born in 1992, and was an All-Star! He has been having a fantastic season leading all rookies in scoring.<br />3: Sergei Bobrovsky- Great season, slowing down lately, would be higher if Boucher did not have comparable numbers.<br />&nbsp;4: Taylor Hall- Might be the only player in history to get a Gordie Howe Hat Trick, and injure himself for the season in the process, well done!<br /><br />Hart Trophy- The one that I am sure you have all been waiting for. It is difficult to decide who deserves this trophy for a number of reasons. 1) Steckel knocked out Crosby. I do not think that if he was healthy all season, we would be debating who deserves to win this. He was having an unbelievable season and if returned today, would still be my favorite for winning the Art Ross Trophy. 2) All good players have remarkable teammates. Stamkos has St. Louis, the Sedins have each other and Kesler, so how can you actually decide who to give it to. 3) Goalies have their own award, so we try not to give them this one. 4) Nobody from the Washington Capitals wants to play any offence this season. With all of these in mind, I think that the winner of this trophy should be &nbsp;Jarome Iginla. His linemates are made up of has beens (Tanguay and Brendan Morrison) and overrated players (that is what happens when you trade for the entire Leafs team) and he still has them in the Playoffs in the ultra competitive Western Conference. He is ninth in the NHL in points and seventh in goals, after overcoming so much adversity. The first two months of the season, he was subject to constant rumors. After that, his team had porous play and the general manager resigned. Throughout all of this Iggy has been as firm as a rock and should win his second Hart Trophy.<br /><br />Hart Ranking Runner-Ups<br />1: Daniel Sedin- The best player on the top team in the NHL does deserve some sort of recognition even if he plays with superstar<br />2: Tim Thomas- He has probably been the most dominant goaltender the NHL has seen since Dominik Hasek in the late nineties. If Theodore was able to win the Hart with the numbers he posted, no reason to believe Thomas is not in the running.<br />3: Steven Stamkos- I know I know, St Louis is a very good player, but Stamkos is still the only player in the NHL that has a chance at breaking fifty goals this season, and that in itself is an impressive statistic.<br />4: Sidney Crosby- Even if he has missed so many games, he still deserves to be on this list for everything he accomplished until the Winter Classic.<br /><br />I hope you enjoyed, follow me on Twitter twitter.com/realhockeytalk<br />Would love to hear comments and feedback!A.J.http://www.blogger.com/profile/01875979094724954303noreply@blogger.com7tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-353889957108108621.post-79723796913320471542011-03-06T01:16:00.002-05:002011-03-06T17:39:15.191-05:00Can the Leafs really make the Playoffs?Since Viktor Kozlov of the Islanders put that puck past Clemmensen (jerk move by the Devils not to play Brodeur) in the shootout on the final &nbsp;day of the 2006 NHL season, Leafs fans have not come close to seeing the Playoffs. It has been an&nbsp;arduous&nbsp;and frustrating process, which included, overpaying (cough cough Toskala) for players that define mediocrity and horrible signings that consistently left the Leafs with nothing but zero cap space and a dearth of picks.<br /><div><br /></div><div>November 29, 2008, was supposed to be the day of salvation for this franchise. Brian Burke, the constructing manager of the Stanley Cup team in Anaheim, and the consistently good Canucks, signed on to bring this franchise back to the promised land. For the first 25 months of his reign, he tore apart the team he inherited and tried to place players in the lineup that fit his style of play. Although he brought in star-studded talent in Phaneuf and Kessel, this team has been lower in the standings than in any of the previous seasons in the last twenty years. That is until now.<br /><br />Since the beginning of the New Year, the Leafs have been 16-9-5 and have crawled back from as far as 14 points out of the playoff race, right back into the thick of things. Even with trading some of their bigger named players, in Kaberle (wasn't it sad seeing him in number 12?) the ultimate third line scorer Kris Versteeg, and the "I need to play with a star defence partner to mean anything" Francois Beauchemin, this team has not given up and is actually playing their most inspired hockey of the season.<br /><br />So the question that remains is, can this team actually taste the playoffs for the first time, since Jeremy Roenick's wicked wrist shot in the semi-finals all those years ago? The way that the team has played lately, (aside from the latest gaffe against the Hawks) indicates that they still have a fighting chance. The final two spots in the Eastern Conference are wide open, as the Rangers are free-falling, and the Canes are not playing the most inspired hockey themselves. The Sabres have been playing a little better of late, coming back and knocking off the Flyers, (something that the Leafs did as well this week in remarkable fashion) and look strong to make the playoffs.<br /><br />I don't think that the Rangers thought that trading Michal Roszival was going to have such a negative effect on their team performance. But combining that with the poor play of Del Zotto this season, has turned one of their strengths into a weak area for this team's overall play. Since the trade they are 9-14-1 and do not seem to be playing any better recently. (Fine they beat the Sens, but who doesn't).<br /><br />If the Leafs can continue their play from the last two months, there is no reason to believe that they cannot challenge for the final two spots. With two games the rest of the way against Buffalo, both at home, &nbsp;and one against Carolina, those games provides a significant&nbsp;opportunity&nbsp;to solidify a position amongst the NHL playoff teams and give this storied franchise a chance to claim what they have been chasing for 44 years.<br /><br />For more on the NHL schedule breakdown the rest of the way check out the NHL site,<br /><a href="http://www.nhl.com/ice/standings.htm?type=pla#&amp;navid=nav-stn-plyfs">http://www.nhl.com/ice/standings.htm?type=pla#&amp;navid=nav-stn-plyfs</a><br /><br />At the same time, Brian Burke has been very smart not to make any personnel decisions that could hurt this team in the future. He understands that the ultimate goal is to win the Stanley Cup, and this team is nowhere near achieving that goal right now, and patching it up by trading picks and prospects is something that John Ferguson may have attempted to do. Again, trading for a 22 year old player that scored 35 goals, does not mean that he veered off of his stated agenda, rather it means he feels more&nbsp;confident&nbsp;knowing what he is getting than taking a risk in the draft. Maybe Seguin turns out to be the Milicic of hockey, maybe he doesn't, either way Burke understands the value of a player like Phil, and realizes that they do not grow on trees either. <br /><br />With the addition of Colborne, Gardiner and a couple of other home grown prospects on the way up, the future has not looked brighter for this team in many seasons, and while it would be nice to make the playoffs, I am pretty sure most intelligent Leafs fans prefer to see this Brian Burke version of the "rebuilding process" that hopefully can build this city a dynasty, to the oft-tried path other GM's have taken and failed miserably in this city.<br /><br />Follow on Twitter at twitter.com/realhockeytalk<br /><br />Would love to hear your comments!</div>A.J.http://www.blogger.com/profile/01875979094724954303noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-353889957108108621.post-55910784624859651432011-03-02T01:49:00.001-05:002011-03-03T03:17:52.625-05:00What happened to the trade deadline?Is it possible that the general managers got the date wrong and thought the trade deadline was February 18th, only to find out that it was the 28th? Yesterday was the quietest deadline in the last ten years, with only one significant player (Penner) and one formerly significant player (Arnott) moving. To contrast, on February 18th we saw the movement of Kaberle, Stewart, Shattenkirk (c'mon the best name in the NHL) Erik Jonson, Brewer and Anderson, now that is what I am talking about. Well I guess the two deals do deserve to be analyzed.<br /><br />La-Edm<br />Penner joining the Kopitar and Dustin Brown on the top line, creates a very difficult matchup to defend against. Surrounding Kopitar with two strong wingers will provide one of the best puck cycling lines in the NHL. All three of them should see a significant boost in their production over the rest of the season. All the respect to Brad Richardson but he has no business playing anything higher than the third line on any team in the NHL. Together with Williams (congrats on the new deal, now just stay healthy) Stoll and Smyth on the second line, their is finally some offensive potential from this team.<br /><br />This deal made sense for the Oilers as well, they got a rugged defensive prospect in Colten Teubert (although his stock has dropped significantly lately) and a couple of picks. In the rebuilding mode, Penner is not the kind of player you want to pay the big bucks to. It is better to hold off on that money so that when your stars need to get re-upped you have the cash available. (Will be interesting to see what will happen with the Lightning with Stamkos and Hedman).<br /><br />For more on Teubert:&nbsp;<a href="http://www.hockeysfuture.com/prospects/colten_teubert">http://www.hockeysfuture.com/prospects/colten_teubert</a><br /><br />Wash-NJ<br />Arnott is a very interesting case to anlayze, especially from a fantasy perspective. He provides for the Caps the legit number two center that they have been looking for, and also a big body in front of the net on their surprisingly 25th ranked power play. Also, he will be expected to bring the playoff experience that he has from his Cup winning seasons to a team that just seems to buckle for one reason or another every single year. After watching his game Tuesday night, and his beautiful pass to Laich for the tying goal, look for Arnott to provide solid fantasy numbers the rest of the way. A lot was expected from Arnott upon his return to the Devils, and that never happened. However, I think though that with the talent surrounding him in Washington he will have his numbers improved.<br /><br />The Capitals also did really well bringing in Dennis Wideman. He will provide stability to the backend with Green having an injury-filled season. The new look Caps look destined for a deep playoffs this season, especially when considering their attention to defence this season.<br /><br />The Devils made a savvy pickup in this deal. David Steckel is one of the best face-off men in the NHL and will fill a void in their lineup since the days of the all-important John Madden. I think most expect the Devils to bounceback next year and re-enter the playoffs and Steckel will be a huge part of their success. Also, they added a second rounder for Arnott, who after his lackadaisical season was most definitely not coming back next year. Good move Lou! I am sure ownership did not force you into this one!<br /><br />A key difference between this trade deadline and the previous few, is the upcoming free agency market and draft. Aside from Brad Richards there are no big names out there to catch, and teams feel that the selling value of players may be higher at that time. Also, this years draft is considered to be one of the weaker ones in memory, so the value placed on picks was not as high. Also, due to the parity in the NHL, very few picks for later years were trading hands, as teams are scared that their teams may plunder and the value of their picks may skyrocket. Can you imagine if the Avs and Sens after making the playoffs last year had traded their picks this year? Yikes! I think the thought of being the next Brian Burke scared a lot of GMs off.<br /><br />Hopefully we will see more action next year!<br /><br />You can follow me on twitter.com/realhockeytalkA.J.http://www.blogger.com/profile/01875979094724954303noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-353889957108108621.post-31409073355396046632011-02-28T02:47:00.000-05:002011-02-28T02:47:22.802-05:00Seabrook, Reimer and all the other big stories around the NHLA lot of people are questioning the signing of Seabrook to a five year deal with a 5.8 million dollar cap hit, claiming they overpaid on him. The problem with this is that, the Hawks simply had no choice, their are too many bad contracts on the back end, which provided his agent with an extremely high baseline. His teammate Campbell is making over 7, Bowmeester is making over 6, heck if Komisarek is worth 4.5 mil, Seabrook at his price is an absolute steal. Also, after being selected to the Olympic team, his value went sky high. With all of their high priced forwards locked up, this was a move the Blackhawks simply needed to do. (Look for Brouwer to get traded this summer for a nice package of prospects).&nbsp;<div><br /></div><div>If it was not apparent how important James Reimer is to the success of the Maple Leafs, it is blatantly obvious after the meltdown in the third period against the Thrashers on Sunday. I am not ready to blame it on Giguere as he had absolutely zero support from his teammates. I think the Leafs are just not as trusting in Giggy, (not that I would be) and do not play as well when they are feel they need to be more conscience defensively. Let's remember this is a young team and confidence is a big part of their game. As a Leafs fan cross your fingers that Optimus Reim is healthy enough very soon!! On a side note, Lupul has been bringing the best out in Phil Kessel, I don't think we have ever seen Kessel work this hard all season..... let's just hope it will not be the same pattern. Seven game goal streak followed by a fourteen game drought if you&nbsp;know&nbsp;what I mean.&nbsp;</div><div><br /></div><div>The Boston Bruins look scary good these days. Did you see their dismantling of the Canucks in Rogers Arena? Peverley and Kelly have made them a very deep team and Kaberle is fitting in beautifully on the back end. Barring injury I just do not see anyone in the East beating this team come playoff time.&nbsp;</div><div><br /></div><div>Chris Phillips resigns with the Ottawa Senators....... finally!! Did anyone think he was going to move? This guy has been in the organization for 15 years and along with Alfredsson has been the heart and soul of that team. Him getting traded is almost like Shane Doan ever leaving the Coyotes, could you actually see that happening? The former first overall pick exemplifies loyalty to a city and an organization matched by few in this growing age of selfish professional sports.</div><div><br /></div><div>Terry Pegula tried to make a statement yesterday, in his first week as the new owner of the Sabres as he acquired Brad Boyes for a second round pick. This trade is a lot more of an addition by subtraction by the Blues as they were able to dump a four million dollar contract of a player that went from a future star to an absolutely horrible player in like record speed. The only player that fell from glory faster in the last decade has been Cheechoo (albeit not even a comparable example) but hopefully Boyes (for his own sake, and not the Leafs) is able to get his game back on track, with the added ice time for the Sabres.&nbsp;</div><div><br /></div><div>It is the trade deadline today and it seems that all of the big moves may have already happened, but do not forget to check back in tomorrow, with all of the analysis.&nbsp;</div><div><br /></div><div>Hope you enjoyed!!</div>A.J.http://www.blogger.com/profile/01875979094724954303noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-353889957108108621.post-12614569610243091252011-02-21T20:08:00.003-05:002011-02-21T20:58:29.888-05:00Analyzing the NHL movement in the last week.There has been a lot of movement in the NHL in the last ten days. It seems that Brian Burke got the ball rolling with his trade with Anaheim, (no I am not talking about Aaron Voros for a conditional draft pick) and it has not stopped since. Let's look at the some of the teams involved in the trades and if they are better or worse off.<br /><br />Toronto: The different trades that the Leafs have made are all in some shape intertwined. Brian Burke has done an excellent job, of stockpiling draft picks (two 1st, a 2nd probably, and a 3rd) plus two recent 1st round picks, (never mind Lupul) while essentially only sacrificing Kaberle from their lineup. What I mean by that is, do you notice a difference between Lupul and Aulie, instead of Versteeg and Beauchemin? In the system the Leafs play, which places a premium on big bodies, that can skate there is no downgrade. Kaberle will be hard to replace but as Burke said in the press conference he was not coming back anyways, his contract demands were to high. All in all, the past week has created more optimism in Toronto, than in a long long time.<br /><br />Ottawa: While their battle of Ontario counterparts were busy maximizing trade returns the Senators did a significantly poorer job of that. With getting rid of a fan favorite in Fisher, their starting goaltender Elliot, and Ruutu and Kelly, the Senators got a 1st, 2nd, 6th round picks as well as a UFA goaltender that probably does not figure into the long term plans of the team. One must think that more value should have been available, as the Senators did not do much in terms of rebuilding, through these trades.<br /><br />Boston: I think they may be the most improved team after all is said and done. They got Kaberle, a PP speicalist, that will vault them into the top 10 in that category, as well as two solid third line players in Peverley and Kelly. Peverley especially adds a nice punch to this team, with his goal scoring ability. Also, they did not lose much from their roster in these transactions and it places them in a nice position to make a deep playoff run. Watch Chiarelli press conference discussing Peverley and Kaberle, this is one very smart man.<br /><a href="http://video.bruins.nhl.com/videocenter/console?id=98477">http://video.bruins.nhl.com/videocenter/console?id=98477</a><br /><br />Colorado: This team has undergone massive changes in the last week. They acquired Erik Johnson and Brian Elliot, while losing Shattenkirk, Stewart and a disgruntled poorly playing Anderson. Elliot was a good pickup, he is a young goalie that had a good year last year, and with Anderson feuding all year with Sacco, he definitely was not coming back. The other trade is very high risk, giving up two players that look like they are on their way to stardom while getting in return a defenceman, that although he is a star needs to take it to the next level. If Johnson can up his game, and become the next Pronger that the Blues envisioned him to be as the first overall pick, this deal will ultimately have paid off. Gonna have to judge this one down the road.<br /><br />St. Louis: Trading Johnson makes a little bit more sense for the Blues. They have a future star in Pietrangelo and with Shattenkirk they still have power on the backend. They also were able to add Stewart, to an offence that has suffered a lot from injuries this season and looked like it could need a boost. The only thing that is surprising is that, they were willing to trade away Eric Brewer to Tampa, for a middling prospect and a third rounder, it looks like they may have problems in their own zone for the rest of this season.<br /><br />Tampa Bay: This team just looks better and better, and Yzerman deserves a whole lot of credit for that. They have addressed their goaltending issues, added Brewer to a defence corps that is looking a whole lot better now and are absolutely stacked at forward. This team may emerge as the leaders of an Eastern Conference that is becoming significantly more top heavy.<br /><br />Atlanta: I just do not understand what this team saw in Wheeler to trade Peverley, and Boris Valabik, who seems like an heir to Chara. Wheeler has not progressed in four season in the NHL, and seems to have peaked. Maybe they are hoping that a change in scenery can take him to the next level.<br /><br />Dallas: Why do they make this trade?? Neal is a 23 year old forward that may crack thrity goals this year after getting 27 last year. This type of player at that age does not grow on trees. Also, they are giving up their second best defenceman, to get Goligoski in return. It seems this trade has a lot to do with finances as the Stars save 3.5 million dollars next season with this trade. Ownership (with all their financial issues) probably made them cut this salary if they wanted to resign Brad Richards next season, otherwise this does not make much sense.<br /><br />Pittsburgh: Phew, a forward that can score that is actually healthy! This may have been the best trade done all week! Lets' do a little test, name six healthy forwards for the Penguins, and don't count Cooke, because by the time you read this he may be suspended again........ I figured you could not do it. They add a serious winger that can play with Crosby come playoff time, and will be a huge force. (Sorry Dupuis, you just do not cut it). With Letang emerging as a top defenceman, and the signing of Michalek and Martin in the offseason, Goligoski became expendable.<br /><br />Anaheim: Adding Beauchemin was probably a nice boost for their defence, and he is comfortable in the system and should work out as a good fit for them in their surprising quest to make the playoffs. Also, if they get to the playoffs, Ruutu will be an&nbsp;indispensable&nbsp;player that adds a level of feistiness that few players can match.<br /><br />Philadelphia: This team is so stacked, that Versteeg will get lost in the mix. They are really gunning for the Cup, after being so awfully close last year. Not a bad idea to add a guy that was a key piece in beating you the year before.<br /><br /><br />Hope you enjoyed!A.J.http://www.blogger.com/profile/01875979094724954303noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-353889957108108621.post-39324881065722072042011-02-18T02:46:00.002-05:002011-02-18T14:51:41.390-05:00With this Kaberle saga fully underway again, who to pick up, hoping they get more valuable at the deadline.From Darren Dreger reporting Kaberle to the Bruins for a first rounder and Wheeler is a "done deal" at 11:25 this morning, to CSN New England reporting that he is getting traded for two Bruins prospects, it seems that everyone has an uninformed inside source. While Kaberle will probably end up&nbsp;being traded, Burke has made it quite clear that he will not be held hostage and&nbsp;exclusively deal with the Bruins. (I actually think that you will see him end up in San Jose). While Leafs fans may be wary, in dealing a key player on the team, being only six points out of the playoffs, it is important to remember that the goal should always be to win the Stanley Cup and making the playoffs is a mediocre result. Kaberle's returns can actually help us get there in the future.<br /><br />On this topic, with the frenzy starting to begin, (Ottawa has&nbsp;already&nbsp;traded every depth forward they have) lets see who may still be traded, causing a bump in their fantasy value.<br /><br />Ty Conklin- His spike in production is twofold. Firstly Halak is injured indefinitely, so Conklin will most likely see the majority of the games while he is sidelined. But Conklin's potential value can be much higher. A team like the Red Wings, that have shaky goaltending, with Howard in a little bit of a slump and Osgood not being healthy, could be interested in a player that had some success in their system. So between the trade option and Halak's injury potentially being more serious, I would say the time is to grab him, especially because he will not cost you to much.<br /><br />Devin Setoguchi- He is the Sharks ticket to acquiring another top flight defenceman. What team would not want a player that when given the oppurtunity in his sophomore season scored over 30 goals and 65 points. The future is bright for this 23 year old former first round pick, just not with all that depth at forward in the Shark Tank. If he gets traded and plays top six minutes, he can add that big splash to your fantasy team and hopefully put you over the top.<br /><br />Nikolay Zherdev- As I have done in some of my other posts, I will add a disclaimer to my statements. If your league places any emphasis on PIM, or does not have a strong emphasis on goals, do not have any interest in this uber-talented Russian. His days in Philly are over. The proof is written on the wall, Ville Leino got hurt, and they put in Jody Shelley and left Zherdev a healthy scratch. If that is not a sign, that it is over, I dont know what is. Nevertheless, if he was placed in a system that is not so defensively oriented and responsible, he can return to becoming the offensive star that he showed himself to be as a Ranger in recent years. Keep him, but stash him on the bench until we see more info on his future. ( Btw, how deep do the&nbsp;parallels between him and Filatov go? Hmm...........)<br /><br />J.S. Giguere- This post is obviously contingent on his health returning, and doing so fast. The thing that makes Giguere most intriguing is that I can only imagine top notch teams like Detroit, or Washington taking a chance. These are teams that aside from goaltending are legitimate Stanley Cup contenders, and may take a risk on Giguere with an expiring contract, because of his remarkable post-season credentials. Do you remember how he destroyed the Red Wings! Wow, where did that talent go! Take the risk, at this point he should not cost you much in your pool.<br /><br />Zdeno Chara- What, you think he is getting traded?!?! No. However he may have Thomas Kaberle as a power play quarterback. Do you remember the numbers that McCabe put up with Kaberle on the backend? Well I have news for you. Chara has the hardest shot in NHL history, if someone can slap in a Kaberle one time pass (I think all Leafs fans know what I am talking about, you know when you actually think Kaberle will shoot and than he passes? Ya that's what I was referencing) it is Chara. In general after a slow start Chara has been playing significantly better offensively, but with Kaberle manning the point with him, we may see unprecedented offensive totals from the giant Slovak.<br /><br />Well those are a few players that may see a rise in fantasy value over the next couple of weeks, now it is up to you to make the move first! Hope you enjoyed!<br /><br />Update: Well Kaberle has been traded to the Bruins, this means two things. 1- My theory that he will end up in San Jose were wrong. 2- Chara is in for a field day.A.J.http://www.blogger.com/profile/01875979094724954303noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-353889957108108621.post-334861011820390932011-02-09T13:42:00.001-05:002011-02-09T13:46:21.961-05:00Leafs land streaky winger for the better of their two pylons on defence.I would like to start off by saying that I believe the Leafs did this trade more for Jake Gardiner, than for Joffrey Lupul. If you saw the way he played in the juniors, it is apparent to you of his two way potential. If you want to read more on his abilities.<br /><a href="http://www.hockeysfuture.com/prospects/jake_gardiner">http://www.hockeysfuture.com/prospects/jake_gardiner</a><br /><br />Joffrey Lupul seems to get traded every single season (Aside from when he is nursing the most peculiar of injures, which also seems to happen every single year). If he plays like the way he did on the Flyers this may be a very good pickup for the Leafs, on ther other hand if we get the Oilers version of Lupul, who in 2006 might have been the worst player in the NHL, this would be a colossal disaster. Parenthetically can you imagine that all it cost Anaheim to land Pronger, was Lupul, Smid and a couple of picks. Ouch Kevin Lowe. Lupul seems to pile on the goals when he starts with a new team. His best starts to seasons have been his first season as a Flyer and last seasons 23 games before getting injured. The biggest issue with Lupul is his 4.25 million dollar cap hit. No matter how well he plays that is a hard number to absorb, on a rebuilding team filled with burdensome deals.<br /><br />My fantasy recommendation is that if you have a roster spot open, nab Lupul with the hope he will take advantage of playing on a top two line with PP time, and then promptly trade him. Even with the dearth of talent on the Leafs scoring lines the chances of him staying healthy while he is still producing at a high output is is pretty low.<br /><br />Assuming the Leafs realize that Lebda is completely inept, and don't give him Beauchemin's minutes, rather they call up Aulie to play, I do not think that we will see such a drop-off in talent on the backend. Beauchemin did not look good in Toronto, without playing with his longtime partner Niedermayer.<br /><br />&nbsp;Good trade Burkie, but you got a lot more work trying to get rid of Komisarek!!A.J.http://www.blogger.com/profile/01875979094724954303noreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-353889957108108621.post-77582254033609719712011-02-08T19:32:00.001-05:002011-04-22T10:50:04.477-04:00In honor of Peter Forsberg: The top five players that are denying age and retirementAs a fan of the game of hockey and the NHL, I really hope that Forsberg's return does not turn into a massive flop. He was the best player in the NHL Post Gretzky-Pre Crosby/Ovechkin, and a role model to all of the young Swedish superstars that are taking over our league. Here is a look at some of the players of Forsberg's era that still contribute to the passion that unites us all.<br /><br />Honorable Mentions:<br />Dwayne Roloson: Doesn't it seem that this guy only became good after the lockout, when he was already 35? He was in a platoon position with Manny Fernandez forever in&nbsp;Minnesota&nbsp;and did not have the chance to shine.All the respect to him, as he attempts to be the oldest goaltender to win a Stanely Cup.<br /><br />Teemu Selanne: Points wise he has been more dominant than the players in the top 5. The only issue with Teemu Selanne is that we have not seen him as dominant in his later years, due to injuries. His points per game is still one of the best in the entire NHL, but with the constant concern that his groin will give in at any day, he does not have the same impact for his team. At the same time his points per game is at an absolute high. Remarkable!<br /><br />5: Mark Recchi- This man can still flat out play. He beat out Teemu Selanne for this spot because he is 43 years old! He is second on the Bruins in points, and fifteenth in the NHL in +/-. If you are in a fantasy league that calculates GWG, their may be some secret value here, as Recchi is third in the NHL in that category. (The caveat being that they represent 60% of his total goals). Hopefully Recchi can stay healthy and continue to play at a high level. I just hope he does not ruin his legacy by playing until he is 48. "Cough cough Chelios."<br /><br />4: Adam Foote- He needs to be on this list as a teammate of Forsberg on those dominant Stanley Cup teams. (Canada got screwed out of another Canadian team championship, I hate you Bettman). While this guy has slowed down, he is still the captain of a young and upcoming team, which can attribute a lot of their troubles to porous goaltending. (Giggy anyone?!?). &nbsp;His fantasy value is extremely limited, but he remains an important part of the Avalanche defence.<br /><br />3: Brian Rafalski- As much as I don't like him as an American, after he singelhandedly beat Canada in the preliminary rounds this past year, compounded with his significant role in eliminating the Leafs about ten years ago. (We actually beat ourselves- six shots on goal in an elimination game are you kidding me!!) Aside from all of my frustrations, there is no denying the fact that he is just as significant a player as he was those many years back, and deserves recognition for this accomplishment. Fantasy owners also are still reaping the benefits of &nbsp;his ability to put points on the board. He is tied for fourth in the NHL in PPG amongst defencemen.<br /><br />2: Martin Brodeur- While he had a really rough start to this season, a lot of that can be contributed to his horrible team play. His play lately has been picking up as well as that of his teammates, (especially kovalchuk) and barring injury, he will hopefully be able to pick up his game, rewarding the Devils as well as his fantasy owners. As the owner of almost every significant regular season record for goalies, I am confident that Brodeur will finally show his true form over the last thirty games.<br /><br />1: Niklas Lidstrom- What can be said about this guy. He may be the best D-man in the history of the league, (Bobby Orr did not have a full career to compare them) as well as the best European player. Captain Lidstrom is having a bounceback year from what was relatively a down year for by his standards. He is second in the NHL amongst defencemen in points, and first in PP points. The one surprising stat in his amazing numbers, is his relatively weak +/-. His -3 can be attributed to playing against the top teams best players. At this rate we may not be seeing another captain in Detroit for quite some time.A.J.http://www.blogger.com/profile/01875979094724954303noreply@blogger.com5