The protracted civil war in Syria awakens
in me many memories from the Lebanese civil war. Growing up in Beirut in the Eighties
to a Lebanese father and a Syrian mother, our family would spend our summers in
Syria to get away from ‘the war’; funny indeed. I remember how my grandfather
always used to say, “in Syria we’re poor but we’re secure”. I fear that
the first part of the statement will hold true while the latter may be in
question for the foreseeable future.

Amidst the cacophony of reporting on the war, it is hard to find a quiet
place to think about the problems of the Syrian working class my grandfather
belonged to, and how the post war reconstruction and development of the country
might bring any sort of the change to their livelihoods. Even before the war,
the unemployment rate was growing at what seemed like an uncontrollable rate.
It is estimated that by 2030, the Syrian population is set to increase to 30
million. Furthermore, data shows that Syria has around 250,000 new entrants
into the labor market each year. Thus, job creation through a visionary
economic reconstruction and development plan and policymaking will be integral
to the recovery and growth of the Syrian economy.

Historically, the Syrian economy has been unable to compete on the
regional and international level despite the low cost of labour and other
inputs. Syria’s new rulers will need to think about ways to reengage the labour
force, making it a partner in future policymaking. The unions need to be
reactivated and strengthened to emphasize their role in facilitating a better
distribution of wealth. Moreover, with strategic oil reserves practically depleted, and the
future of production facing far too many challenges, future leaders must think
hard about how to invest in and diversify the economy to ensure long-term
growth.

It is important not to forget the economic troubles that have led -
directly and indirectly - to this uprising. The country’s educational system is
in need of a complete revamp if its graduates are to remain competitive in the
world economy. The agricultural sector has suffered from several years of
drought and mismanaged water systems, pushing the rural communities into city
suburbs and exacerbating already high unemployment and poverty levels.
Industry, apart from Pharma, is suffering badly; textiles for example have been
completely crushed by Chinese imports. These productive sectors are in dire
need of investment and innovation.

Another elephant in the room is the bloated public sector. It is the
largest employer in Syria, and its reform will help establish the policymaking
environment for the rest of the economy. The literature
informs us that “sound
financial management, an efficient civil service and administrative policy,
efficient and fair collection of taxes, and transparent operations that are relatively
free of corruption all contribute to good delivery of public services”. Although
broad statements like that are hard to distil into policy and action plans, they
provide a big picture for the direction of reform.

I agree with Nizar
and Jihad.
The problem with Syrian National Coalition groups working towards a Marshall
Plan-style reconstruction is that this tends to follow the trends set by most foreign
consultants and advisors, completely disregarding the hard mix of
sociopolitical dynamics in Syria, its neighbours and the international markets
that might prevent any neoliberal economic reform framework from delivering on
its promises. The Syrian Marshall Plan, as it appears to me now for example,
focuses on construction, providing a quick jumpstart to the economy. Other
elements that will help in the short-term would be the potential investments
from the Gulf States in the tourism and service industries. However, these
options will not have sustainable long-term effects.

I expect all eyes to be on the Coalition as it manages post-war
reconstruction efforts. Their efforts will set the tone for the way Syria will
be governed in the near future. The current state-sponsored monopolies might
disappear or morph into new entities; however, I do not see any reason why new
ones will not be formed in their stead to manage big contracts after the war
and dominate the economy thereafter. New oligarchies, new Makhlouf families (pointed
at for years as the very image of Syrian corruption) could simply follow the old
ones: the Lebanese post-conflict reconstruction experience and its forced
reforms has taught us that some rich people may benefit during and after wartime
while masses in general do not really witness a lot of change. What might
happen is that the pie will be divided amongst a number of families active in
the Opposition and that the poor will understand this very well and accept it,
for an immediate present when security and employment will the primary concerns
of the people.

A new social contract is needed in Syria; Syrian people need to be
treated like adults and regarded as individuals empowered to partake in the
social, political and economic future of their country. They should feel secure
in the knowledge that their rights as members of society are protected by the state
and that their share of wealth is ensured by the government’s policies. Will a
democracy resting on pre-scripted reconstruction plans and imported policies solve
these problems? Not likely.

About the author

Maurice al Haddad is a financial analyst and venture
capitalist in Middle East. He is currently pursuing an MBA at the University of
Pennsylvania.

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Security for the future: in search of a new vision

What does ‘security’ mean to you? The Ammerdown Invitation seeks your participation in a new civic conversation about national security in the UK and beyond. Its authors offer an analysis of the shortcomings of current approaches and propose a different vision of the future. Please use the invitation summary document for seminars, workshops and public meetings, and share the responses and insights that emerge.