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@10, Yeah, Carew moved but he remained able to hit. That's all I was getting at.

Am I the only one who see him looking for and possibly getting $200M+? Seems like the last two are awfully low compared to other recent contracts. Note that the Dodgers do not currently have a billion dollar 2b.

To add: He's going to be 31, he's #2 in fWar over the past 3 years, a good defender, and by traditional stats, he's a 30/100 type of guy. Why wouldn't that get him at least 8/180 (Tex money) instead of 7/140 (Crawford/Werth money)?

I think he'll age fine. He might have to be moved away from 2nd but he'll be able to hit until he's 40.

I'd bet the under on that for any player under 35.

Am I the only one who see him looking for and possibly getting $200M+? Seems like the last two are awfully low compared to other recent contracts. Note that the Dodgers do not currently have a billion dollar 2b.

I think around 200m could well be where it ends up. I don't think 7/140 gets Boras to not test FA. And 5/90 gets a chuckle and a call me when you are serious.

If Yankees fans need cheering up over this, remember that a large deal for Cano will make it almost impossible for the Red Sox to get a reasonable deal with Pedroia, who actually has the small stature of the early-burnout 2nd basemen.

Much as it pains me to say it, isn't Cano just physically different from the secondbasemen who tend to fall apart quickly? Seems like Kent, Grich, and Carew aged pretty well.

Lou Whittaker and Joe Morgan both played 2B and were productive right up til their retirements. We had a thread here a couple of weeks ago that delved more deeply into 2B aging and for every star that fell off the cliff at 33 or 34, you could find one that was reasonably productive through age 40.

Have the Yankees ever let a star in his prime leave during the FA years? I'm tired and there may be an obvious one I'm missing, but I can't remember it happening.

They sure tried with Bernie Williams, but he wouldn't let them. There's a couple of arguable ones--they traded Rickey! during his prime, for example--but since the start of their most recent run, I'm pretty sure the answer is no.

Have the Yankees ever let a star in his prime leave during the FA years? They sure tried with Bernie Williams, but he wouldn't let them. There's a couple of arguable ones--they traded Rickey! during his prime, for example--but since the start of their most recent run, I'm pretty sure the answer is no.

Andy Pettitte pitched his age 32-34 seasons with the Astros (and ended up having arguably the best season of his career down there).

Lou Whittaker and Joe Morgan both played 2B and were productive right up til their retirements. We had a thread here a couple of weeks ago that delved more deeply into 2B aging and for every star that fell off the cliff at 33 or 34, you could find one that was reasonably productive through age 40.

think $200M is the magic number for Boras/Cano and I'm guessing he ends up getting 8/$200M from someone.

Isn't everyone getting a big pile of new TV money for next year? It may not affect what the Yankees are willing to offer, but I have to expect Boras is going to wait to see how that affects any offers.

No crazier sounding that $250M for a 32-year-old 1B coming off his worst year. Or a $125M for 32-year-old LF who's got some serious health concerns. Or $214M for a good, not great, not athletic 1B. Or $200M for a 1B who's several years from reach FA, or or or.

Teams are rolling in cash and very few elite players make it to FA anymore. When they do, they seem likely to get paid.

The conversation didn't delve too deeply into other positions, but the conclusion was that generally speaking, EVERYBODY starts to lose it after age 34. The overall skill/value of the player and how many years you're signing him past his age 34 season are probably more important than what position he plays, at least in the sense of figuring out whether the $/WAR calculation works.

One problem with secondbasemen, in general, is that they have nowhere to move to. Many don't have the arm for CF/RF/SS/3B and are too short to play 1B. That leaves LF or DH, and how 2B have a bat that plays there? Of course, this isn't likely a problem for Cano, who has a good arm and is rather tall for a 2B.

To add: He's going to be 31, he's #2 in fWar over the past 3 years, a good defender, and by traditional stats, he's a 30/100 type of guy. Why wouldn't that get him at least 8/180 (Tex money) instead of 7/140 (Crawford/Werth money)?

Teams are very reluctant to sign anybody past age 36. Cano, like David Wright with the Mets, can probably push the Yanks to 37. Only the "greats" like Pujols, ARod and Votto can push teams past that. Miggy's next contract will probably go past that.

Why did Fielder get 9/$210 -- it started with his age 28 season and ends at 36. Why did Hamilton get 5/$125 -- it starts at his age 32 season and ends at age 36. Why did Tex get 8/$180 -- it started at his age 29 season and ends at age 36.

Why $22? I went for $22 because top 2B have never been paid commensurate with their worth. That he might get $23 to top Tex is clearly possible. But I had forgotten about Hamilton and there's not much reason to think he's not wroth Hamilton money so 6-7 at $25-26 is definitely a possibility.

But there is no team in baseball that will give him anything close to the Pujols or Votto contracts nor will he get Prince's contract. Nobody is signing Cano through his age 39-40 season.

In a nutshell: great 2B age just fine, Cano is one, and he should put up about 30 WAR during the next 9 years, which would be worth $210M.

Cameron generates a very odd list ... a list of top 2B that doesn't include Sandberg, Alomar, Whitaker or Grich. If all you're going to really do is comp Cano as a hitter, why limit the comp group to 2B?

Morgan and Carew had funny careers. Morgan peaked as a hitter at ages 31-32; Carew peaked at 31. Carew put up about 30 WAR from age 31 on and 1/3 of that came in his age 31 season. Morgan put up 44 WAR with 20 of that coming at ages 31-32 (which was in line with 28-30 so no reason to expect Cano to match that).

Cano - Carew is a very good comparison and if you guarantee me Cano is going to have a season for the ages at 31, I'll buy that 30 WAR projection. Otherwise, something around 25 (over 9 years) is more reasonable.

Now, using Cameron's comps from 37-40:

Morgan: 11 bWAR
Carew: 3 (didn't play at 40)
Biggio: 5.5 (I dropped his age 41 season)
Utleyy: he's only 34 ... his age 37+ is looking close to 0
McAuliffe: DNP

As ... was it GuyM or SoSH? .... showed in that other recent thread, 2B are no different in this regard than other positions. But other reasonable comps from ages 37-39:

So, sure, Cano might put up 5-6 WAR in those last 3 years. Take that off Cameron's 30 WAR and that's 25 WAR or 6/$150-175 (when did WAR become $7 M per by the way?). Take that off my 25 WAR and it's 20 WAR 31-36. That's what my guesstimate on the contract is based on, with Cano probably able to push them to a 7th year because the Yanks are a bit desperate and, in a couple of years, he'll be the only True Yankee they'll have.

How many of those guys put up 20+ fWAr and 20+ bWar in their last 3 years before signing their new deals? Cano is arguably the best position player in the game right now. Now, if he bombs out in 2013, then all bets are off. But if he keeps up what he's doing, I don't see the age-36 barrier as stopping him.

Also, I don't think there's much relevance in a lot of the guys on that list. How does it matter, for instance, that a 26-year-old Tulo was signed through 35? Any contract that would have carried him past age 36 would have been completely unprecedented in length. A more reasonable comps, to me, would be recent guys of a similar age. That's Pujols, ARod, maybe Wright? Those guys all blew past 36. There's also a crop of similar-age players who were far inferior players (because of performance, health, or other factors), such as Swisher, Hamilton, Beltre, and Werth, who got deals through age 36 (and beyond for one). I can't see why he wouldn't get deals that were better than those guys got.

I have a different objection to Cameron's comps than Walt (though his is good too). All those guys on the list were very different kinds of hitters from Cano. They all had quite a bit more patience than he's had and only Utley really had similar power.

I don't know, but if I'm Cashman I'm not giving $200 million to anyone when I still owe the husk of A-Rod almost $140 million.

That's a stupendous way to get fired as the GM of the Yankees. You made a bad contract decision (and how much of that was Cashman is debatable to this day), so you let good player after good player go by to "punish" yourself? Because all big deals are bad deals?