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Polls unchanged after coup

A YouGov survey conducted since the ousting of IDS suggests that these events have had little effect on voters. The Conservatives are on 34% (up 2% since the last poll), Labour is on 36% (+5) and the Liberal Democrats are on 23% (-7).

Translated into a general election these figures suggest that Labour would emerge with a 100-seat majority. The Tories would still have fewer than 200 MPs (191). The explanation of the Lib Dems’ apparent collapse is the dissipation of the euphoria that followed the party’s conference and Brent East by-election victory.

Compared with the 2001 general election, Lib Dem support has risen by four percentage points while there is just a one percentage point rise for the Conservatives.

The poll also shows that Michael Howard as leader would have at best a neutral effect — equal proportions saying they would be more and less likely to vote Conservative with