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California Republicans continue to hold out hope for an upset victory by Republican David Harmer in his bid to replace former Democratic Rep. Ellen Tauscher (pictured).
AP Photo

Garamendi’s campaign dismissed the GOP-sponsored poll earlier this month as a ploy designed as a fundraising tool for Harmer. But it has become a rallying point for some national Republicans who say the results should compel the party to take notice.

Erick Erickson, editor of the widely read RedState blog, recently complained in a post that “the GOP would rather support a pro-gay-marriage, pro-abortion, pro-union, ACORN-supported Dede Scozzafava in New York’s 23rd Congressional District than spend any time or money on David Harmer’s race.”

Most analysts expect Garamendi to emerge on top. Allan Hoffenblum, publisher of the California Target Book, a guide that tracks elections in the state, said the race was “Garamendi’s to lose.”

Hoffenblum, who worked on former Republican Rep. Bill Baker’s campaigns in the 10th District during the 1990s, said the Nov. 3 results would come down to which party does a better job of getting their most committed voters to the polls.

“The only way there could be an upset is if there is a strategy, and an implementation of that strategy, to motivate a large number of Republicans to turn out,” Hoffenblum said. “This is not a campaign to proselytize or persuade, it’s a campaign to get out the vote.”

Tom Del Beccaro, the vice chairman of the California Republican Party, agreed that in the Democratic-oriented district, where he is a resident, turnout will be crucial. He said that debates in Washington, especially amid growing concern about health care reform, could help.

“I think the race is driven a lot by national issues because neither candidate has an overwhelming presence in the district,” Del Beccaro said. “Special elections are about the motivated voter, and the motivated voters in this instance are those disaffected by what’s going on.”

It’s a strategy that the Harmer campaign has been pursuing. Last week, his campaign released a Web video featuring footage of Garamendi advocating for a public option, side by side with clips of House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) doing the same.

Clark said Harmer would continue to raise the health care issue and try to portray Garamendi as a supporter of big government and higher taxes. Harmer has also sought to use the fact that Garamendi’s residence lies just outside district boundaries to paint the Democrat as an interloper.

Garamendi said he welcomed the video about the public option — “we thank him for it, and we hope every Democrat sees it” — predicting that it would help him with members of his own party.

Harmer’s campaign manager, Michael Caporusso, emphasized that the Garamendi campaign’s recent decision to send out a negative mailer was a signal Democrats were nervous.

“I don’t know why he would go negative if he didn’t need to,” Caporusso said. “That indicates to us that the race is extremely tight.”

Readers' Comments (16)

These events have got to worry the socialists. A three-way race in New York where the Conservative candidate has a chance of beating both the Republican and the Democrat, and a race in the Bay Area of all places, where the Republican is running a competitive race. This is all an indication of how upset the American public is with what the socialists are doing to our country. The real bombshell hits in November of 2010, and all the covering up being done by the state-controlled "news" media can't mask what's going on. Watch out Pelosi and Reid - you're next.

I can answer Caporusso's question about why the Democratic candidate went negative - because that's what they do. Look at Obama's race last November where his minions went through Pelosi's garbage to try to dig up dirt on her. Look at how they trashed Joe the Plumber. Look at what's going on the New Jersey and Virginia Governor races where the Democrats are dragging out traffic violations on the Republlican to try to slam him with. How long has it been since there was a Democrat in a race who DIDN'T go negative? The extreme partisan split in this country will not be healed until the Democratic party ceases their scorched-earth campaigning policies.

These events have got to worry the socialists. A three-way race in New York where the Conservative candidate has a chance of beating both the Republican and the Democrat, and a race in the Bay Area of all places, where the Republican is running a competitive race. This is all an indication of how upset the American public is with what the socialists are doing to our country. The real bombshell hits in November of 2010, and all the covering up being done by the state-controlled "news" media can't mask what's going on. Watch out Pelosi and Reid - you're next.

With only about 25% of the vote, the outcomes you predict look very bleak. The majority of Americans don't want your radical agenda.

PRINCETON, NJ -- Conservatives continue to outnumber moderates and liberals in the American populace in 2009, confirming a finding that Gallup first noted in June. Forty percent of Americans describe their political views as conservative, 36% as moderate, and 20% as liberal. This marks a shift from 2005 through 2008, when moderates were tied with conservatives as the most popular groups.

Gambler.

These events have got to worry the socialists. A three-way race in New York where the Conservative candidate has a chance of beating both the Republican and the Democrat, and a race in the Bay Area of all places, where the Republican is running a competitive race. This is all an indication of how upset the American public is with what the socialists are doing to our country. The real bombshell hits in November of 2010, and all the covering up being done by the state-controlled "news" media can't mask what's going on. Watch out Pelosi and Reid - you're next.

With only about 25% of the vote, the outcomes you predict look very bleak. The majority of Americans don't want your radical agenda.

Hey Gambler, You've be reading the wrong polls. ONLY 20% are libs these days.

As he is quick to point out, President Obama is presiding over two wars, a sour economy, and an epic fight to rebuild the nation’s health care system.

Now he has tacked on state and local political races. With an off-year election fast approaching, Obama is stepping up his commitment to Democratic candidates in hopes that an infusion of campaign charisma might pump up turnout.

What the party is finding, though, is that the electricity of 2008 is tough to recapture. Some Democratic candidates running for local office around the country call the phenomenon the “Obama Hangover.’’ It is proving tougher to recruit volunteers and get people to vote.

“It’s like the morning after the party,’’ said Michael McGann, a Democrat running for clerk of courts in the Philadelphia suburbs. “The party was wonderful and exciting. The day after it’s like, ‘Gee, I don’t want to do that again for a while.’ ’’

Obama is trying to inspire voters with the “fired up; ready to go’’ fervor that made last year’s race riveting political theater.

But Democratic candidates are hard pressed to scratch out victories this year in the New Jersey and Virginia governor’s races, and in a congressional race in upstate New York’s 23d District.

In New Jersey, local issues such as high property taxes loom large. Asked if an appearance by Obama would make them more likely to vote for Governor Jon Corzine, the Democratic incumbent, nearly three-quarters of state voters polled said no.

Worse for the Democrats, if any one constituency is energized this season it’s conservatives, who are angry about rising deficits, some pollsters said.

“There’s real anger on the right, and that anger isn’t matched by enthusiasm on the left,’’ said Dean Debnam, president of Public Policy Polling. “So the emotion is on the side of the far right.’’

A clean sweep by Democrats looks unattainable. So for Obama, the question is how much to invest in what could turn out to be losing candidacies.

“They’re trying to make sure they’re responsive to the needs and wants of the campaigns, and at the same time recognize the limits of their usefulness,’’ said Jim Margolis, who was a senior adviser to Obama’s presidential campaign. “If I were advising him, I would advise him not to set up campaigns in New Jersey and Virginia.’’

In the summer of 2008, Biden had accompanied his wife to the dentist’s office for a root canal. He got a call there from Obama, who offered him the vice presidency. Biden accepted, if the job could be made meaningful.

Speaking at an annual Allegheny County Democratic Committee dinner in Pennsylvania last week, Biden told a curiously different version. He said he rejected Obama’s offer flat-out when first approached.

“I initially said no, that I wasn’t interested,’’ Biden said, but he agreed to think about it.

“A couple months later,’’ Biden said, Obama repeated the offer in a hotel room in Minneapolis. The senator looked at Obama and said, “Are you really committed to changing the course of this country?’’

The bay area is the most liberal region of a liberal state. The Republican candidate doesn't stand a chance. And even if they did, ACORN, La Raza and the black panther thugs would see to it that the election was stolen for the communists.

California is lost, under the Mexican flag. We have become an extension of the 3rd world, Latin American branch. I live in the central valley. We old nasty horrible white people are outnumbered and surrounded by "people of color" 3 to 1. As soon as the mostly young and illegal immigrant population get registered to vote, every single legislative district in California will be held by democrats. The lone exception will be the Vietnamese Republicans in Orange County, who politically resemble the anti-Castro Cubans in Florida. They are stauch republicans, and bitterly resent the democrat party's betrayal of their former homeland.

The white race is headed for extinction. No babies = no future. The only people who vote conservative are whites. Therefore, the republican party will disappear along with us rotten old racists.

Obama.... The constant lying. The staggering arrogance. The dangerous narcissism. The astounding incompetence. The Obama Buffoon wants to put as much of the private economy under government control as possible to create his nanny state utopia where he is the boy king. Let's continue to stand strong against Obama in every way and get Congress out of the hands of the equally incompetent Pelosi, Reid, and Tauscher. Obama is a smug, smirking con man. Nothing more.

Poor old Joe IS a pathological liar. Michelle Malkin's book "Culture of Corruption" details his many lies and says that he tells some lies so many times that he actually believes them now. How do you spell doofus?

In New Jersey, local issues such as high property taxes loom large. Asked if an appearance by Obama would make them more likely to vote for Governor Jon Corzine, the Democratic incumbent, nearly three-quarters of state voters polled said no.

Excellent. I hope the voters can look past the VIP appearances and vote the governor out of office. Term limits people!

The bay area is the most liberal region of a liberal state. The Republican candidate doesn't stand a chance.

San Francisco has their local elections in Nov, there are only one candidate each for City Attorney & Treasurer. Both are Democrats. They aren't even running against anyone. There is no competition. The Republicans don't even try anymore. It's a complete waste of time, effort and money for them. I don't blame them one bit!

The extreme partisan split in this country will not be healed until the Democratic party ceases their scorched-earth campaigning policies.

Ditto. I would love to say that Americans are getting tired of the street fighting in politics, but I think it's getting worse since Obummer came into office. And he was supposed to unite us. Hahaha. Right. He's done just the opposite. Thanks to the campaigner and waffler-in-chief.

But uhg, here I sit as a conservative in San Francisco. It's lonely out here. *sniff*