Weather and Traffic

Forecasters eye possible named storm off Florida’s coast next week

“Looks like the crazy weather of April will be extending into early May,” National Weather Service forecasters in Miami said in a post late this afternoon. Heavy rain and flooding is possible over the next few days, they said. “Monday will be a transitional day with the crazy weather possible for Tuesday and Wednesday.”(Credit: NWS-Miami)

SUNDAY PM UPDATE:The National Hurricane Center issued a special tropical weather outlook giving the low pressure system expected to form over the Bahamas a 30 percent chance of becoming Subtropical Storm Ana. Forecasters said the system — which could bring heavy rainfall to Palm Beach and South Florida on Tuesday — “could gradually acquire some subtropical characteristics by Thursday or Friday as it moves slowly northward.” Another special tropical weather outlook was expected to be issued Monday morning.

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SUNDAY UPDATE: Precipitation chances will be on the increase starting Monday night as deep tropical moisture begins streaming in from the south, the National Weather Service in Miami said. Rain chances are at 60 percent Monday night and tick up to 70 percent Tuesday and Wednesday. The weather pattern on Tuesday and Wednesday will be “supportive of locally heavy rainfall with flooding potential in isolated areas,” forecasters said in their analysis this morning.

AccuWeather predicts 1.13 inches of rain in Palm Beach through Thursday. Weather Underground says closer to three-quarters of an inch. NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center shows most of the heaviest rain staying in the Bahamas with up to 3 inches through Friday, and up to 1.75 inches edging into coastal areas of South Florida.

The wild card for next week is the low pressure system expected to form near the Bahamas (see post below). Although it’s expected to remain off-shore as it drifts north, it’s likely to have an impact on South Florida weather toward the middle and end of next week.

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ORIGINAL POST: The start of the 2015 hurricane season is still 30 days away, but nature is notorious for ignoring the calendar. The buzz this weekend among tropical weather forecasters is that the first named storm of the year could spin up next week near the Bahamas — possibly bringing wind, high surf, dangerous rip currents and heavy rain to Florida’s East Coast.

Computer forecast models have been advertising the system over the past few days, with the two most reliable models — NOAA’s GFS and the European model — on board with vigorous low pressure brewing early in the week near the northern Bahamas. The question is whether the system will be a garden variety low, or become a subtropical storm or even a tropical storm later as it drifts north.

The two latter categories would earn the system a name from the National Hurricane Center — Ana is the first one on this year’s list.

For now, the National Weather Service in Miami says local weather conditions could sour as early as Monday night, with a 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms in Palm Beach and winds forecast to gust out of the east at near 30 mph. Precipitation chances jump to 60 percent Tuesday and Tuesday night before things start to wind down on Wednesday with a 50 percent chance of showers.

“The past couple of runs [of the GFS and European] have shown the deepest layer moisture remaining to the east of the region along with the surface low over the western Bahamas,” National Weather Service forecasters said in their morning analysis from Miami. “This would keep the heaviest rain threat to the east. However, any shift to the west would have an increasing threat for minor street flooding.”

Tropical weather experts from commercial forecasting services have begun weighing in on the chances for an early start to the season next week.

“Ocean temperatures are near 26°C (79°F), which is about 1.7°C (3°F) above average for this time of year, and just at the limit of where a tropical storm can form,” Weather Underground’s Jeff Masters said in a blog post Friday. “If the storm manages to find a sweet spot over the core of the warm Gulf Stream current, it has the potential to develop into a subtropical or tropical depression in the May 7 – 8 time frame.”

AccuWeather advised today: “Cruise interests from the eastern U.S. to Bermuda and the Bahamas, and people living along or heading to the coastal areas of eastern Florida to the Carolinas should closely monitor the situation.”

Tropical or subtropical storms are not unusual in May. The last one was in 2012, when Tropical Storm Alberto formed off the South Carolina coast on May 19. It had peak winds of 60 mph before weakening into a tropical depression a few days later.

Tropical weather experts say that an early start to the hurricane season does not necessarily mean that an active season lies ahead.

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RECORD WATCH: The two-month period of March and April combined was the hottest on record at Palm Beach International Airport, the National Weather Service in Miami said in a report released today. The average temperature for the two months was 77.5 degrees, beating the previous mark of 76.5 set in 2011.

It was also the second-warmest start to the year — from Jan. 1 through April 30 — on record, analysts said.