European car sales analysis March and Q1 2019 – brands

After a 7% decline in January and a 2,6% decline in February, European new car sales were down by 3,7% in March 2019, to 1,76 million sales. For the first quarter of the year, sales are down 4,4% to 4,07 million units. Most of the decline can still be attributed to the after effects of the introduction of new fuel efficiency and emissions testing standard called WLTP (Worldwide harmonized Light vehicle Test Procedure) in September. March sales figures are traditionally heavily influenced by the UK market, for which this is the highest volume month of the year by far. Fortunately, despite all the uncertainties facing this market, its decline was not as bad as generally expected. However, all major European markets were in the red in March, as Italy posted the highest percentage drop (-9,6%), followed by Spain (-4,3%), the United Kingdom (-3,4%), France (-2,3%) and Germany (-0,5%). Just nine out of the 30 countries of the EU and EFTA showed growth in March, with the fastest growing markets Lithuania (+43,8%), Denmark (+33,2%), Norway (+27,6%), and Romania (+20,8%). In the first quarter registrations remained almost flat in Germany (+0,2%), while the other key markets performed worse than in the first quarter of 2018, most notably Spain (-6,9%) and Italy (-6,5%).

As in five out of the last six months, crossovers and SUVs are the only category to improve their sales volume year-on-year, with a 3,2% increase leading to a 36,9% market share. Sales of car models (hatchbacks, sedans, station wagons, coupes and convertibles) were down 6,3% to 56,6% market share while MPVs continued to slide, down 16,2% to 6,5% of the market.

Groups and brands

Big winner among manufacturers is once again Tesla Motors, both in absolute figures and in year-on-year growth as Tesla more than triples its volume on last year thanks to the start of deliveries of the Model 3. Geely Group ans SAIC are also among the big gainers, although the latter added just 700 sales on March 2018. In relative terms though, SAIC is growing by nearly 63% in March, ahead of Aston Martin at +26,1%. Among losers, Renault-Nissan takes the biggest volume hit at almost 20.000 fewer sales in March, with Ford and FCA also losing more than 17.500 sales on last year. Relatively, Subaru loses more than a quarter of its sales on March 2018, with GM down almost 20% on its handful of European sales and Mahindra & Mahindra down by 17,6%.

Among brands, Tesla adds the most volume with over 11.000 additional sales, but Dacia grows by 10.000 sales as well, followed by Audi finally in recovery mode at +4.633 sales. In relative terms, Mahindra more than quadruples its sales thanks to the KUV100, DR Motor more than triples up, just like Tesla. Nissan loses the most volume at almost -22.000 sales, with Ford and Fiat among the big losers as well, each down by more than 13.000 sales on March 2018, while Infiniti is the fastest declining brand, losing almost two thirds of its sales compared to last March and the brand has announced it will withdraw from the European market. Cadillac also loses almost 60% of its sales and Alfa Romeo is down by almost 44%, still hampered by the WLTP fuel economy standards introduced last September.

Year-to-date, Tesla is the big winner among manufacturers as well, with over 15.000 additional deliveries thanks to the arrival of the Model 3, with the two Chinese manufacturers Geely Group and SAIC also strong, although at a much lower level as Tesla, with nearly 5.000 and over 1.200 additional sales respectively. Renault-Nissan is the big loser at more than 43.000 lost sales, with FCA and Volkswagen Group also down by more than 34.000 sales on the first quarter of 2018. Relatively, Tesla Motors more than triples up while no other manufacturer more than doubles up, with SAIC Motor next best at +70% and Aston Martin at +39%. Among brands, besides Tesla and DaciaCitroën is a surprise winner at almost 6.000 extra sales.

As usual in March, the brands that are relatively overdependent on the UK market are boosted in the European rankings as well. That pushes Ford into 2nd place behind Volkswagen, but Renault is fewer than 600 sales behind the American brand, which is the second biggest loser in the top-10 behind Fiat. Opel/Vauxhall is up to 4th place ahead of Peugeot for the first time since last September. Mercedes-Benz stays the best selling luxury brand in Europe, ahead of BMW and Audi, but the latter is the only of the three to gain sales on March 2018. Audi also ends its 6-month losing streak that started when the WLTP standards were introduced in September. Fiat barely manages to hold on to its top-10 position ahead of Skoda, while Dacia continues to outsell both South-Korean brands in Europe. Nissan is the big loser in the top-30 and is now Europe’s #4 Asian brand behind Toyota and the Koreans. Mazda continues to struggle, but manages to outsell Suzuki for the first time since last September. Honda, in one of its most important months of the year in terms of sales, loses 17,3% and barely manages to outsell Mitsubishi despite being much stronger in the UK market. Tesla is knocking on the door of the top-25 behind Jeep but outselling Jaguar by a fair margin. Porsche continues to struggle since it stopped selling diesel-powered cars and SUVs, but Alfa Romeo is suffering even more.

Year-to-date, Ford jumps from 4th to 2nd place thanks to its higher share of the UK market which is relatively strong in March. However, Renaultis just 28 sales behind and will easily leapfrog the American brand next month, when the latter will be weaker again. Skoda drops 2 places in the YTD ranking after being passed by both BMW and Audi. The latter also passes Toyota, which now holds the red lantern in the top-10. Thanks to their strength in the UK market, Mini, Land Rover and Jaguar each jump a place in the YTD ranking, the former passing Jeep, Land Rover passing Mitsubishi and the latter passing Lancia.

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About Bart Demandt

Bart is a 36-year old Dutchman who's always had a thing for cars, the automotive industry and statistics. He’s combined these passions by writing about them on CarSalesBase.com. His daily driver is an Alfa Romeo GT 3.2 V6 which he just can't seem to say goodbye to thanks to the mesmerizing exhaust note, despite approaching 300.000km which probably makes this the most experienced GT 3.2 in the world.
You can find all his articles Here.

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