3 Strengths

• Forcing turnovers: Florida is a pressure defensive team, ranking 24th nationally in defensive turnover percentage and 21st nationally in steal percentage. Unluckily for the Jayhawks, the two best steal guys for the Gators are the two returning from injuries for Tuesday's game: guards Scottie Wilbekin (No. 5) and Kasey Hill (No. 0).

• Keeping teams away from rim: Florida's defense rarely gives up easy looks. According to Hoop-Math.com, just 26.4 percent of field goals against Florida have been dunks or layups (18th-best mark nationally), while 41.7 percent of opponent field goals have been two-point jumpshots (14th-best nationally). Because of that breakdown, UF's 43.5-percent 2-point defense ranks in the top 50 in the NCAA. It should be an interesting test for KU, which has gotten more than 53 percent of its shots this year at the rim.

• Offensive rebounding: Florida is a top-50 team when it comes to the offensive glass, pulling down 36.4 percent of its misses. The one especially to watch for is 6-8 Dorian Finney-Smith (No. 10), as he ranks in the top 40 in offensive rebounding percentage while getting half of his made shots at the rim this year from putbacks.

3 Weaknesses

• Shot selection: Though it forces a lot of 2-point jumpshots, Florida also takes a lot of those offensively. According to Hoop-Math, 36.6 percent of Florida's shots have been mid-range jumpers, which is the 47th-highest split nationally. Though the Gators actually have been accurate jumpshooters (44 percent on 2-point Js, 15th nationally), those shots still hurt UF's production, as they aren't as reliable as close shots and don't give the bonus point that a 3 does.

• Defensive rebounding: Despite being a ranked team, Florida is just below NCAA average on the defensive glass. KU has only been an average team on the offensive glass so far this year, but there should be opportunities for guys like Joel Embiid and Andrew Wiggins to get extra chances at the rim.

• Free-throw shooting: Florida ranks 191st in free-throw accuracy, making just 68.9 percent of its freebies this year. Interestingly, KU ranks fourth nationally in free-throw defense (if there is such a thing), as opponents have made just 59.6 percent of their charities against the Jayhawks.

3 Players to Watch

• Offensively, everything for Florida centers around 6-foot-6 forward Casey Prather (No. 24). The senior is easily the Gators' best offensive player, posting 1.22 points per possession, and wisely, he's taken on a huge offensive load for UF (ending 30.1 percent of his team's possessions offensively, 72nd nationally). Prather ranks 68th nationally in effective field-goal percentage, and as you might guess, that's from great shot selection. This year, 60.2 percent of his shots have come at the rim, and he's also had great accuracy there, which was led to him making 55 of 85 2-pointers (65 percent). Prather is dangerous off the dribble as well, drawing 6.8 fouls per 40 minutes while adding well above-average numbers in offensive rebounding percentage and assist rate. If KU coach Bill Self is ready to make Wiggins his defensifve stopper, then this would be the guy to put him on.

• The aforementioned 6-foot-8 forward Dorian Finney-Smith (No. 10) has been an elite rebounder on both ends. The sophomore ranks 36th in offensive rebounding percentage and 78th in defensive rebounding percentage while staying out of foul trouble, committing just 4.2 fouls per 40 miuntes. Finney-Smith does have a major flaw, though: His shooting has been terrible at the rim. Amazingly, he's made a lower percentage of layups/dunks (38.1 percent) than he has 2-point jumpshots (41.7 percent). That inaccuracy, along with a high turnover rate, has made Finney-Smith a well-below average offensive player who takes too many shots (25.8 percent when on floor) based on his production.

• Florida has only one proven 3-point threat: 6-foot-4 guard Michael Frazier (No. 20). The sophomore doesn't take a lot of 3s, but when he does, they're probably going in. He's made 23 of 44 treys this year (52.3 percent), and that's not really a fluke, as he put in 52 of 111 last year (46.8 percent). Whoever's guarding No. 20 for KU should not leave him to help no matter what is happening in the lane.

Prediction

According to KenPom, this is the second-toughest game on KU's schedule, only behind March 1's game at Oklahoma State.

Though it definitely won't be impossible for KU to pick up the victory in a tough environment, the Jayhawks certainly will have to play well to do it.

Florida, like a lot of recent teams KU has faced, tends to allow a high percentage of its points defensively via 3-point shots, as it has done a nice job this season avoiding fouls. That makes three questions key:

1. Will KU be able to get its customary shots at the rim against a Florida 'D' that doesn't allow many?

2. Will the Jayhawks be able to make a few 3-pointers, which they haven't been able to do?

3. Will the Jayhawks be able to avoid turnovers against a quick Gators defense?

In case you're wondering, Florida draws fouls at a decent rate, but nowhere near that of Colorado. Though UF is a good jumpshooting team, it doesn't shoot many 3s, and KU should do fine any possession you see a jumpshot (not from Frazier, of course) where it can avoid a foul. That kind of defense would give KU its best chance at success.

While KU could win ... I'll take the favored Gators at home.

Florida 66, Kansas 62

Hawk to Rock

Looking at Hoop-Math numbers, Florida has done an excellent job of limiting opponents' opportunities in transition. Because of that, I'll take Perry Ellis as the Hawk to Rock, as he's been KU's most productive player in half-court sets, posting an impressive 58.5 percent effective field-goal percentage in that setting while tying for the team high with 59 shots taken. The sophomore also was more aggressive on the offensive glass against Colorado, and he should have an opportunity to crash the glass Tuesday against Florida.

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