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The latest SurveyUSA poll of the Kentucky Senate race, released Monday, shows Democratic state Attorney General Jack Conway within three points of Lt. Gov. Dan Mongiardo — a major improvement for Conway, who trailed his rival by 16 points in a March DailyKos/Research 2000 poll of the race. Mongiardo's been hit by a string of damaging stories about his use of state funds, increasing the odds that Democrats will be able to nominate the establishment-backed Conway.

On the Republican side, Rand Paul leads Secretary of State Trey Grayson by 15 points in the GOP primary and a generic general election match-up shows Republicans with a three-point, 44 percent to 41 percent advantage.