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VANCOUVER—Events overseas have likely never been cited so often in B.C. politics.

The province’s electoral referendum ends Nov. 30. Both opponents and supporters of reform here have been quick to pounce on voting turmoil abroad as proof of their favoured system. Brazil’s election last Sunday of a far-right populist accused of fascist leanings is no different.

Police officers stand in line in front of the residence of Jair Bolsonaro in Rio de Janeiro on Oct. 29. Far-right congressman Bolsonaro won Brazil’s presidency Sunday on promises to overhaul several aspects of Latin America’s largest nation. (Leo Correa / The Associated Press)

First out the gate was the president of the No B.C. Proportional Representation Society, Bill Tieleman. Following Jair Bolsonaro’s victory in Brazil, Tieleman tweeted: “Brazil’s system of government is notoriously dysfunctional ... The president is elected by a majority vote and faces a House of Deputies chosen by a very complex system of proportional representation.”

Advocates of B.C.’s current electoral system have focused on raising the spectre of extremists gaining a foothold to power if voters opt to ditch first-past-the-post. In that system, members of the Legislative Assembly are elected by garnering the largest number, or plurality, of votes — even if it’s not a majority.

Previously, the rise of politicians widely labelled neo-Nazis in the parliaments of Germany and Scandinavian countries has been a talking point. An advertisement from Tieleman’s organization featured marching soldiers after footage of extremists rioting in Germany.

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So it’s no surprise Bolsonaro’s election as Brazil’s president last Sunday with 55 per cent of the ballots — nearly 60 million votes — would be the latest fodder for opponents of reform.

“Brazil’s president is not elected by proportional representation,” tweeted Vancouver-based commenter and political science graduate Devon Rowcliff. “Thanks for clarifying, Bill.”

Vancouver investigative journalist Bob Mackin’s Breaker.news also jumped into the fray, arguing: “The president is elected by first-past-the-post. Only difference is the horse race lasts a little longer.

“And, like Europe, Brazil’s problems are more complex than simply blaming the proportional representation elections for lower offices.”

And in the provincial capital, CFAX radio host Adam Stirling got into the fight, noting on Twitter: “Ultra far-right homophobic, sexist, militarist autocrat that just won Brazil’s election and he rose to power because he was elected SEVEN TIMES to a national congress that is chosen through open list proportional representation. Awkward. #prorep.”

So what exactly is true, if both sides — electoral reform cheerleader Rowcliffe and first-past-the-post defenders Tieleman and Stirling — see vindication in Brazil’s controversial elections?

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According to Latin America expert Michelle Bonner, a political science professor at the University of Victoria, neither side gets to score a point over Brazil.

Bonner is currently researching a book on what she calls the rise of “punitive populism” across Latin America, a tough-on-crime conservatism fuelled by public fears of growing violence even while most countries’ violent crime rates decline.

“This is really an anomaly compared to previous elections in Brazil, which have generally produced centrist results,” she said in a phone interview. “It’s more than anything the result of the huge corruption scandals in Brazil that have caught up almost all the political parties — that made a candidate who had not been connected seem appealing.

“None of it has anything to do with their electoral system, and so much to do with political economy and other global changes happening. The elections just reflect those tensions happening already.”

Brazil’s presidential elections are in fact a “majoritarian” process whereby a candidate without more than 50 per cent of votes cast must survive multiple rounds of voting as losing candidates are dropped from the ballots.

“They have runoffs to make sure whoever wins in the end has over 50 per cent,” Bonner explained. “That’s common in most presidential elections around the world.”

Max Cameron, a political scientist at the University of B.C. and an electoral reform advocate himself, agreed that Brazil’s situation is hardly comparable to B.C.’s.

“Brazilians were fed-up with corruption, cronyism and insecurity,” he wrote in a Facebook post. “Investigations into money laundering by Brazilian federal judge Sérgio Fernando Moro implicated an astonishing number of politicians and business people.

“So far there have been at least 150 convictions, and it is estimated that one quarter of the congress is involved in the scandal.”

In an earlier interview, Cameron said that proportional representation is no more likely to produce “extreme” or unstable governments than first-past-the-post elections.

Brazil’s presidential race requires an absolute majority vote through a two-round system, in which only the top two candidates proceed to a second round of voting. It’s known as runoff voting and is used to elect the presidents of all Latin American countries, as well as France, Austria, Finland, India and Portugal.

In Canada, such run-off ballot voting is actually used by most political parties to elect party leaders, including the Conservative Party of Canada — which held 12 rounds of voting and elected Andrew Scheer leader, beating his rival Maxine Bernier by less than two per cent in the final round. The federal Liberals used run-off voting until recently, but in 2013 used a version of run-off voting with a single round that redistributes losing candidates’ votes to voters’ second choices, similar to the single-transferable vote.

The B.C. Liberals — who are campaigning aggressively against what they call the B.C. NDP’s “rigged” referendum — also use run-off balloting, with five rounds electing leader Andrew Wilkinson on Feb. 3 this year, beating rival Dianne Watts by double the percentage of votes, despite Round 1 giving him just over half her votes.

Meanwhile, Brazil’s 513-member Chamber of Deputies, akin to Canada’s House of Commons, uses open-list proportional representation, while Brazil’s 81-member Federal Senate uses a first-past-the-post system where the winner has the plurality, or most, votes.

Bonner asks people to weigh competing claims about Brazil’s results against the same system being in place in nearby Chile, which has produced decades of relatively stable governments.

“They use proportional representation ... but so do most countries in Europe,” she noted. “Chile has had stable centrist coalition governments consistently since the return of electoral democracy.”

However, whether repeated series of coalition governments cobbled together from an ever-changing sea of political parties is desirable is a question up for debate in British Columbia’s referendum, since it is indisputable that first-past-the-post usually tends to favour one or two major parties and sidelines third parties.

This is B.C.’s third referendum on proportional representation, but the first to require only a simple majority to pass, rekindling reformers’ hopes of having legislature seats better reflect the popular vote.

Although B.C.’s independent chief electoral officer vetted and approved the ballot questions, opponents have criticized the referendum as “rigged” in favour of NDP and Green electoral success — particularly since details of how to implement the alternative systems or riding boundaries will be decided by a committee of their government.

Referendum voting packages must be received by Elections B.C. before 4:30 p.m. on Nov. 30, either by mail or in-person at Service B.C. centres.

B.C.’s ballot asks two questions: First, whether we should keep first-past-the-post voting or change to proportional representation; and second, to rank three proportional systems in order of preference: mixed member proportional, rural-urban proportional or dual member proportional. Voters can answer both questions or just one.

David P. Ball is a Vancouver-based reporter covering democracy and politics. Follow him on Twitter: @davidpball

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