Paula continuing to weaken

Data from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicates that Tropical Storm Paula continues to weaken. The aircraft's latest center penetration at 3:08pm EDT found top winds at their flight level of 10,000 feet of just 55 mph in the eyewall. The SFMR instrument saw surface winds near 65 mph. The eyewall of Paula has collapsed, and satellite imagery shows the storm has a lopsided appearance due to wind shear. The low-level center is almost exposed to view, the classic satellite signature of a storm under high wind shear. Since the high wind shear affecting Paula is pushing most of the storm's heavy thunderstorms to the north, Cuba is receiving very little rain from the storm. Havana has reported two brief rain squalls from Paula, and top sustained winds of just 20 mph. Sporadic heavy rains are affecting the Florida Keys today, with Key West picking up 1.01" inches of rain thus far. Weather radar out of Key West (Figure 2) noted several regions offshore where Paula has dumped 5+ inches of rain.

Figure 2. Radar-estimated precipitation for Paula from the Key West radar.

Forecast for PaulaThe models continue to predict that Paula will move along the north coast of Cuba or just inland during the next two days. On this track, Paula will move over Cuba's capital, Havana, tonight and Friday morning. An extended period of time over mountainous Cuba will likely destroy a small storm like Paula by Friday night, particularly since the storm will be under 30+ knots of wind shear. The models are pretty unanimous in showing that wind shear will pull Paula apart over the next day regardless of whether or not the center stays over water. Tropical storm force winds extend out just 45 miles to the north of Paula's center, so it is unlikely that the Florida Keys will experience sustained winds of 39+ mph. The 11am EDT wind probability product from NHC gives Key West a 21% chance of receiving tropical storm force winds; these odds are 70% for Havana. Havana may receive some minor wind damage from Paula, and there may be some minor flooding problems in the mountainous regions of Cuba.

Elsewhere in the tropicsThe latest 8am EDT (12Z) NOGAPS and GFS model runs continue to predict the formation of a tropical depression 4 - 5 days from now, in the southern Caribbean off the coast of Nicaragua. The storm is predicted to move northwest or northwards towards the Cayman Islands and Jamaica, once it forms. The GFS model has been pretty reliable in forecasting the genesis of new tropical depressions this year, and the fact that we have two major models predicting the formation of a new Caribbean tropical depression next week is worth paying attention to.

In the Western Pacific, Tropical Storm Megi is nearing typhoon strength, and is predicted to intensify into a major typhoon that will strike the northern Philippine Island of Luzon on Sunday night or Monday morning.

Possibly. We just had a negative SOI burst in the Pacific which has implications down the road in North America during the 5-15 day period, in other words a disruption of the consistent trough pattern that has dominated the east recently. Typhoon Megi also supports this, as it is likely to track west across the Philippines and continue westward, indicating more ridging in the far east, which tends to teleconnect to ridging over the eastern United States.

A more zonal flow and more ridging over the east could direct Caribbean storms farther north before getting recurved to the northeast. That's why you see some runs of the GFS punching Richard into central America. However, it's dang hard to get a storm in the Caribbean to just move west into central America and die in October. Most of them eventually get brought back out into the Gulf of Mexico. Thus, we should be on the lookout. I still feel October will be a solidly active month from beginning to end, as I said back in September. Can't let our guard down yet.

You can't say we're safe until the season is over. It is true the forecasts for U.S. impact have been overdone by all, and we're all thankful for that. However, it's not over until it's over. We're about to have yet another storm develop and you can still punch things into the SE US in October. Wilma occurred in late October. It can still happen, so be ready.

Quoting centex:The only surprise for October is not the number of storms but how Eastern US has been protected. We may get an extra tropical nor'easter but that is only threat. We have 100mph shear already in GOM. This is why blog has been so quiet and October doomers moving on. The Carib is still going to create them but unless you live in Central America or western Carib island, we are safe.

You can't say we're safe until the season is over. It is true the forecasts for U.S. impact have been overdone by all, and we're all thankful for that. However, it's not over until it's over. We're about to have yet another storm develop and you can still punch things into the SE US in October. Wilma occurred in late October. It can still happen, so be ready.

After they realized that the previous forecasts of it dying over Cuba or getting stuck in the Caribbean were off. The current NHC forecast track is becoming more accurate now that we are getting right down to it.

10% in the Caribbean. It begins..AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERNCARIBBEAN SEA. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE ONLY MARGINALLYFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...BUTCONDITIONS MAY BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE AFTERWARDS. THERE IS A LOWCHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONEDURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES LITTLE.

Quoting WeatherNerdPR:I think differently, but I thought the CONUS would be hit by now. However, I think the threat of a season isn't over until the season itself ends.

True and if pattern changes all bets are off. I'm looking for pattern changes and may only take a slight shift and FL gets nailed. Just saying that can't happen this week and October running out of time.

Quoting centex:The only surprise for October is not the number of storms but how Eastern US has been protected. We may get an extra tropical nor'easter but that is only threat. We have 100mph shear already in GOM. This is why blog has been so quiet and October doomers moving on. The Carib is still going to create them but unless you live in Central America or western Carib island, we are safe.

I think differently, but I thought the CONUS would be hit by now. However, I think the threat of a season isn't over until the season itself ends.

Quoting LightningCharmer:Sorry if I gave you the idea, I was making an accusation with regard to your comment. That was not my intention. I just didn't want to invite all the, "What are they smoking at the NHC!?" type of comments that I see on here sometimes.

Yes they do make mistakes, and that's why I read this blog and others as well as view many websites during the tropical cyclone season; don't want to put all my eggs in one basket with information.

I understood clearly, you thought by commenting on my comment you would unintentionally stir the pot so to speak, I understood exactly what you meant , but wanted clear the air for anyone who might have took your comment the wrong way, sorry if I came off the wrong way, you made an excellent comment/point BTW.

The only surprise for October is not the number of storms but how Eastern US has been protected. We may get an extra tropical nor'easter but that is only threat. We have 100mph shear already in GOM. This is why blog has been so quiet and October doomers moving on. The Carib is still going to create them but unless you live in Central America or western Carib island, we are safe.

Quoting stormpetrol:I have no problem with the NHC changing the track at all, I only say what " I think I see" I could be completely wrong anway and they are the experts, But bear in mind also that the experts can be caught off guard or be wrong every so often, we're only human no matter how smart or educated we are in any particular field!

Sorry if I gave you the idea, I was making an accusation with regard to your comment. That was not my intention. I just didn't want to invite all the, "What are they smoking at the NHC!?" type of comments that I see on here sometimes.

Yes they do make mistakes, and that's why I read this blog and others as well as view many websites during the tropical cyclone season; don't want to put all my eggs in one basket with information.

Quoting LightningCharmer:Maybe it's just me but it only seems to be accurate up to 1 hour out after that it's all over the place...LOL

It's one that's changed quite a bit. The K storm changed quite a bit back in 2005 as well. Of course this discussion will invite those who will start attacking the NHC for changing track. Their job is not to forecast a track and stick to it for arguments sake; their job is to save lives and protect property through information.

NHC PAULA Graphics Archive

I have no problem with the NHC changing the track at all, I only say what " I think I see" I could be completely wrong anway and they are the experts, But bear in mind also that the experts can be caught off guard or be wrong every so often, we're only human no matter how smart or educated we are in any particular field!

ABIO10 PGTW 141800MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN/141800Z-151800ZOCT2010//RMKS/1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA): A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE. B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 90.1E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 88.4E, APPROXIMATELY 290 NM EAST OF VISAKHPATNAM, INDIA, AND HAS MOVED ON A WEST-NORTHWEST TRAJECTORY OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM HAS NOT CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. CONVECTIVE BANDING REMAINS DISORGANIZED AND CONFINED MOSTLY TO THE NORTH AND AWAY FROM THE BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THIS IS EVIDENT FROM A 141458Z METOP-A MICROWAVE IMAGERY. THE STRONGEST SURFACE WINDS, DERIVED FROM SHIP AND BUOY REPORTS, ARE ALONG THE PERIMETER OF THE LLCC - CHARACTERISTIC OF A CLASSIC MONSOON DEPRESSION. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE IS TO THE SOUTH OF A RIDGE AXIS NORTH OF THE HIMALAYAS IN A ZONE OF MODERATE TO HIGH EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (30-35 KNOTS). THIS HAS BEEN THE MAIN FACTOR INHIBITNG FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THE CYCLONE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS FAIR. (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA): A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE. B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.//NNNN

Quoting HurricaneDean07: Hey Levi, Great Update This morning. Do you think Paula will exit Cuba soon? Or will it stay over Cuba and die out.

I still don't think it will just die. While there's still a chance the low-level center decouples away and dissipates while the rest of the system heads out to the ENE, it is showing no signs of doing that yet. I still think the whole thing is most likely to exit through the Florida Straights as I was saying yesterday, though it may not emerge over water until it has already reached Miami's longitude.