2. Readers can examine different probabilities of winning
in tennis at “Tennis Calculator,” 2015, www.mfbennett.
com. For analytical derivations, see F.J.G.M. Klaassen
and J.R. Magnus, “Forecasting the Winner of a Tennis
Match,” European Journal of Operational Research 148,
no. 2 (2003): 257-267.

3. E. Siegel, “Predictive Analytics: The Power to Predict
Who Will Click, Buy, Lie, or Die” (Hoboken, New Jersey:
John Wiley & Sons, 2013); and T.H. Davenport and
J.G. Harris, “Competing on Analytics: The New Science
of Winning” (Boston: Harvard Business Review Press,

12. The term “bootstrapping” has a different meaning in
statistics, where it refers to repeated sampling from the
same data set (with replacement) to get better estimates;
see, for example, “Bootstrapping (Statistics),” Jan. 26,
2017, https://en.wikipedia.org.

13. H.A. Wallace, “What Is in the Corn Judge’s Mind?,”
Journal of American Society for Agronomy 15 (July 1923):
300-304.

16. For a thorough analysis of the multiple reasons
for this paradox, see C.F. Camerer and E.J. Johnson,
“The Process-Performance Paradox in Expert Judgment:
How Can Experts Know So Much and Predict So Badly?,”
chap. 10 in “Research on Judgment and Decision Making,” ed. Goldstein and Hogarth.

17. Random noise can produce much inconsistency
within as well as across experts; see R.H. Ashton,
“Cue Utilization and Expert Judgments: A Comparison
of Independent Auditors With Other Judges,” Journal
of Applied Psychology 59, no. 4 (August 1974): 437-444;
J. Shanteau, D.J. Weiss, R.P. Thomas, and J.C. Pounds,
“Performance-Based Assessment of Expertise: How to
Decide if Someone Is an Expert or Not,” European Journal of Operational Research 136, no. 2 (January 2002):
253-263; R.H. Ashton, “A Review and Analysis of Research on the Test-Retest Reliability of Professional
Judgment,” Journal of Behavioral Decision Making 13,
no. 3 (July/September 2000): 277-294; S. Grimstad and
M. Jørgensen, “Inconsistency of Expert Judgment-Based
Estimates of Software Development Effort,” Journal of
Systems and Software 80, no. 11 (November 2007):
1770-1777; and A. Koriat, “Subjective Confidence in
Perceptual Judgments: A Test of the Self-Consistency
Model,” Journal of Experimental Psychology: General
140, no. 1 (February 2011): 117-139.