The Texans and the return of MNF – “It’s a Trap”….guest entry by Dan P.

Dan P., a popular contributor and avid fan of both this blog and the Texans, has offered a preview of the Texans vs Jets game.

Enjoy!

~ Crimedog

Ps. I won’t spoil it for you and tell you what his score prediction is 😉

“It’s a Trap” – The Texans and the “Return of MNF”

In the 3rd Star Wars movie, Return of the Jedi, Admiral Ackbar excitedly recites his famous warning, “It’s a Trap” as the rebellion has been suckered into an attack on the Death Star and the Imperial fleet. Now I could digress and start discussing with the under-30 crowd how Episode 3 is not the same as the 3rd Star Wars movie and how NO ONE ever called the first movie “New Hope” until the 2000’s. “New Hope” sounds like a 2016 campaign slogan – but again, I don’t mean to digress.

Anyways – this week, I’m betting that Gary Kubiak is playing the role of Admiral Ackbar to help deflate the large heads his minions must be building up after a 4-0 start to the season. The Monday Night game with the Jets has trap game written all over it.

Why this game could be a trap

1) The Jets are spending a week having their manhood questioned by a volatile and some may argue unstable coach. Would you want to repeat a 34-0 shellacking and walk back to the sideline to face Rex Ryan?
2) The Jets are a home team on Monday Night Football. They know that the other 30 teams will be watching this game and their “friends” around the league will be tweeting, texting and sending snail mail to them based on what they see. They will want to give it their best.
3) The Jets are not the 0-4 Browns – they are 2-2 and tied for their division lead going into this game. They have a lot to play for and they could be a dangerous team.
4) Yes, they lost 34-0 to the 49ers, but the game was only 10-0 until well into the 3rd quarter. A long fumble return and a blocked punt gave the 49ers a TD and the ball at the 4 yard line prior to a TD, respectively – inflating the final score.
5) The only Texans – Jets common opponent is the Dolphins, who both teams beat. (OK the Texans drilled the Fins, while the Jets won by 3 in OT).
6) The Texans know they are really good rather than think they could be good. If their confidence slides over to arrogance they could struggle.

The Matchup – Overall

On the flip side of the trap discussion above (the dark side?), the Texans have been on a super roll through the first quarter of the season, while the Jets have been stumbling along and have suffered a couple of extremely critical injuries – losing Darrelle Revis (their version of JohnJo) after the 2nd game and placing their best receiver Santonio Holmes on IR this week after a foot injury in game 4.

The Texans are the only 4-0 team in the AFC and may be getting a nosebleed as they have never even reached 3-0 before this season. Note: The Oilers never had a 4-0 start in the many years they were here.

The Texans have a 2-1/2 game lead in their division after 4 games and might have a 3 game lead except for the Colts bye week. They are winning easily even with obvious problem areas rearing up in each game. They are being recognized as the best overall team in the league (except by certain local football columnists).

The Jets at 2-2 have beaten two of their divisional rivals in the Bills and Dolphins and have been beaten soundly by two highly thought of teams in the Steelers and 49ers. As CD, pointed out during the weekly chat – the Jets are coming off of playing the best overall team in the NFC (sorry Falcons) in the 49ers and their reward is to play the best overall team in the AFC in our Texans. After the two major injuries, the terrible performance against the 49ers and with so much self-inflicted drama with the Tebchez, Sanbow QB “controversy” – this game could be the one that either starts them on the path back to the playoffs or off a cliff to a 5-11 type year.

The Texans on Offense

We often criticize Gary Kubiak for the instant doghouse he builds for those who show any signs of fumbleitis. But it is impossible to look at the 4-0 Texans and not realize that their offensive success is tied to not making mistakes. With 3 sacks and 2 turnovers after 4 games they are pace for only 12 sacks and 8 TO’s by year’s end. That is insanely good.

Factoid – In a minute and 52 seconds in the 3rd quarter on Monday night Tony Romo had as many turnovers as the Texans have had in 4 complete games.

Not surprisingly, the only close game the Texans have played was the Broncos game where they suffered their only 2 turnovers. Anyone who saw that game knows those 2 TOs were the biggest obstacle to the Texans pulling off another 20+ point win.

At his current pace – Matt Schaub will not reach the 4000 yard mark. Who cares? He has been extremely efficient, has made great decisions, has avoided sacks and has utilized all the weapons at his disposal. Going back to his last 4 starts before his 2011 injury (where the Texans only had 3 TO’s) – Matt is 8-0 and the Texans average score has been 31-12.

Matt has his QB rating up to a career high of 105.2 (that is Brady-ish efficiency) and is at the bottom for certain QB stats that have to make Coach Koobs happy – tied for 26th with only 1 interception and is 32nd and last in sacks with 3. Nine of his teammates have caught his passes and 5 different receivers have teamed with him for scores.

As has been noted – the Texans have not been as efficient running the ball in 2012 – they are #1 in attempts, but only 9th in yards gained and their 3.7 yard per carry average is tied for 20th in the league. Now part of this is tied to the team running with big leads against stacked D’s, but they also have not been explosive as Foster has a long run of only 22 yards after the 1st quarter of the season. Maybe, as chemistry develops with the newbies on the right side of the o-line this area will improve.

The larger concern is the 400+ carry pace that Arian Foster is tracking right now. Getting more carries for Tate, closer games and a little looser play calling by the Coach (oh, the horror) might also raise the number of pass attempts and take the load off of our favorite in-house vegan.

For those of us hoping to see the development of the next generation of wide receivers we have had only had a few scattered highlights to placate us. WRs not named Johnson or Walter (Jean and Martin) have averaged 1.5 receptions / game in the young season. In truth AJ is still the number 1 target and the number 2 WR is actually tight end Owen Daniels who is on pace for about 900 yards. Casey with 12 shorter catches and Graham with 3 longer receptions have been important targets for Schaub. One of the biggest differences this year has been with the lack of yard production out of the RB’s. Foster and Tate combined are surprisingly on pace for more receptions than last year (72 vs. 63) but their projected yardage is way down (projected 370 yards this year vs. 715 actual last). But, if Arian hits on one of those 60 yard receptions that could change in a hurry.

The Jets on offense

When you look at the numbers you can almost see why the Jets owner is pushing for Tebow to start over Sanchez. Sanchez has never been very accurate, but he has been awful this year – hitting on 49% of his passes and only 44% the last 3 games (note – Tebow’s career % is 47.5%). And this year Tebow has doubled Sanchez’s completion % – OK, he hit his only pass and it ended up in a fumble.

In a scenario very reminiscent of last week with Chris Johnson – Shonn Greene as the Jets main running back comes into the game with a terrible 2.8 yd/ carry average. After Greene – 2nd year man Bilal Powell has a better average on a lot less carries and Tim Tebow is over 4 yards / carry on 9 attempts so far. The Jets 3.2 yards/ attempt is 30th in the league.

Even with Sanchez’s inaccuracy, the Jets move the ball through the air – they have 40 1st downs passing vs. a miserly 14 on the ground to this point. That just became more difficult as their most reliable receiver – Holmes hits the IR. Expect more catches out of Jerome Kerley and rookie Stephen Hill. Hill is the speedster out of Georgia Tech that the Texans had an eye on in this year’s draft and the two of them could be dangerous with big yards/catch averages and 2 TDs each to date. With Dustin Keller hurt most of this year – the Jets have not been utilizing their TE’s much – Jeff Cumberland leads with 11 catches for 88 yards.

The Texans on defense

JJ Watt is “on pace” for 30 sacks this year. Reminder – the 2010 Texans had 30 sacks as a team! But this is not your grandpa’s Texan’s defense – they are 1st in the NFL for points, yards, 1st downs, TD’s rushing, and Net yards per passing attempt.

Their Achilles heel to date sticks out like a sore thumb – they are allowing 4.3 yards / rushing attempt which is 23rd in the NFL. Luckily with holding fair sized leads in each game – the other team’s have been steered towards passing to get back in the game – but after the Titans kept running CJ last week you have to wonder what will happen in a closer game. Can the Texans turn off the faucet when it matters?
At this point – the linebackers have to be considered the weak point of the defense. Cushing is leading the team in tackles, but Reed and Barwin have combined for only 1.5 sacks and Bradie only has 9 tackles and 4 assists after 4 games.

While overshadowed by El SWatto – Antonio Smith has been good at the other end with 2 sacks and a forced fumble.

In a bit of a shocker – Kareem Jackson is leading the team in interceptions (2) and is tied for the lead in passes defended (5). Yes, he is targeted more than Johnathan Joseph, but he has grown into a solid CB in his 3rd year. The safeties Manning and Quin have been very solid and it is unfortunate that Demps went down as he was playing a big role too.

Jets on defense

The Jets defense has been about as effective at stopping the run as Jim Lehrer was at stopping presidential debaters from going over their 2 minutes. They are giving up almost 5 yards a crack and are 31st in yards and 32nd in rushing TD’s. In an ironic twist – after placing shutdown corner Darrelle Revis on IR after game #3 the Jets probably were expecting the 49ers to attack them through the air. Nuh-uh. The 49ers ran 44 times for 245 yards in crushing the Jets. As porous as we picture the Texans rush defense – they have had 3 games allowing less than 80 yards, while the Jets have had 3 games allowing more than 185 yards rushing. Ouch!

The Jets pass defense looks much better in comparison, grading out well on yards allowed, but that is because team’s run on them so much. They are middle of the pack on yards per attempt and only have 5 sacks on the season – 2.5 less than you know who.

Their defense has forced 6 turnovers in their two wins and none in their two losses.

Special teams

The Jets have two good return options as Joe McKnight is averaging more than 27 yards per return and WR Kerley has an impressive 17 yards / return on punts. New punter Robert Malone has a not too impressive 37 yard net with one block on the season. Nick Folk is perfect on 6 FG’s, but none have been over 40 yards.
The Texans keep waiting for the ticking time bomb of Trindon Holliday to break one or to get replaced. His 23 yards / return on kicks and his 9.6 yards / return on punts pale in comparison to the Jets duo. But it only takes one.

Donnie Jones has a very pedestrian 38 net yard average, but has dropped 3 inside the 20. Shayne Graham has been as advertised – a perfect 7 for 7 on FGs inside 50 and 0 for 1 outside 50.

Summary

On paper – the Texans should be able to bury a Jets team coming off a demoralizing loss and missing important cogs from their offense and defense. They need to take this one seriously and to date they have. They need to win the turnover game, perform better on the offensive and defensive side of the running game and everything should fall in to place. And they should heed Admiral Ackbar’s warning about a trap before they take the field.