Add one more to the list: Modinomics. India is abuzz about
the supposed economic chops of opposition leader Narendra Modi,
who could be running India five months from now. Can his program
steer India away from a full-blown financial crisis and toward
double-digit growth? Who knows? Modi’s program remains
disturbingly vague in details, which leaves me with three
worries: Modi might turn out to be India’s Abe; his party isn’t
the panacea investors think it is; and the nation’s gridlock may
be set to get even worse.

Markets love the idea of a Modi-led government because of
his success in the western state of Gujarat. Chief minister
there since 2001, Modi cut red tape for businesses, attacked
graft and produced 10 percent-plus growth rates. The idea is
that Modi will apply his “Gujarat model” nationally and smash
through India’s dysfunction and vested interests. Prone to Ayn Rand-esque dictums such as “I believe government has no
business to do business,” Modi might sell off sprawling state-owned enterprises that stifle competitiveness.

But asked repeatedly how even a charismatic leader can ram
reforms down the throats of reluctant states, many also run by
powerful and ambitious personalities, Modi has consistently
avoided answering. His argument -- essentially, “Just wait and
see what I will accomplish!” -- reminds me of Abenomics in
Japan. A year after Prime Minister Abe came to office pledging
dramatic moves to open and deregulate a fossilized economy, he’s
implemented none. Stock traders are euphoric; average Japanese
have buyer’s remorse.

My second concern: Modi still has to deal with his own
party. Ten years ago, the Bharatiya Janata Party was
unceremoniously shown the door. At the time, Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee’s splashy re-election slogan was “India
Shining.” Millions who didn’t feel part of the magic retorted
with their own: “We won’t be ignored.”

The BJP’s successes were easy to articulate: rapid growth,
an information-technology boom, rising stocks, some key state
asset sales. Harder to explain was the failure to spread
economic benefits to the 99 percent. The BJP has given little
indication that it has since figured out that conundrum -- or
that it cares to do so.

Though Modi plays on his own humble beginnings, one man is
rarely a match for India’s powerful parties. I have little good
to say about the ruling Congress Party’s leadership over the
past decade. But Prime Minister Manmohan Singh did take a
variety of bold steps: introducing the Right to Information Act
to boost transparency and expose graft; giving markets a bigger
role in setting fuel prices; opening investment in retail,
aviation and other sectors to foreigners; championing new land-acquisition laws; opening the door to nuclear power. These
successes were simply eclipsed by the fecklessness of a party
that squandered infinitely more opportunities than it created.

When Modi needs to be currying favor with chief ministers
to expand the “Gujarat model,” he’ll also be preoccupied with
battling the elites in his own party. And others as well: The
sudden rise of the Aam Aadmi (“Common Man”) Party has
increased the chances that neither Congress nor the BJP will
emerge from elections with a commanding majority.

When it comes time to build a workable coalition, Modi’s
personal baggage will weigh especially heavily. Anti-Muslim
violence on his watch in Gujarat in 2002 claimed more than 1,000
lives. Modi’s reputation as a hardline “Hindu nationalist”
turns off many smaller regional parties. The elections could
well leave India with a hung parliament in which no party has
even a slight mandate.

India doesn’t have any time to waste, not with China
barreling ahead and credit-rating agencies on the verge of
downgrading Indian debt to junk. Bad loans at the nation’s banks
are at a record high, which will restrain lending and could
spark a financial crisis. Smart and credible as he is, central
bank Governor Raghuram Rajan has no control over the twin budget
and current-account deficits that have sent the rupee to record
lows. If Modi really does have a specific plan for how to
address India’s economic woes, he’d better lay it out soon.