The Federal Reserve has a story and is sticking to it: We didn't lose taxpayer money, and we won't. But several emergency programs and credit lines still exist, and the path to profitability on them remains uncertain.

The Federal Reserve has terminated nearly all of the extraordinary lending programs it created in 2007 and 2008 to combat the credit crisis. But it now faces critical decisions in coming months about when and how to tighten monetary policy, according...