Report predicts further decline in ONT passengers

ONTARIO - L.A./Ontario International Airport will continue to see a decline in passenger traffic for the first half of this year, according to projections from airlines.

The pessimistic forecast is based on thescheduled seats at ONT through July, consultant Nick Johnson said.

Johnson said the projections will be the harbinger of decline at ONT in 2013.

"When we see declining seats and declining flights, we know that it is highly likely there will be fewer passengers to go into the seats and fewer total passengers into the airport," Johnson said.

Johnson gave Ontario International Airport Authority commissioners an update this week on the airport's performance. The authority is made up of local officials who are working to facilitate the transfer of the airport's ownership to local control.

The report painted a picture of how ONT has suffered at the hands of Los Angeles World Airports, which operates and manages the Ontario, Los Angeles and Van Nuys airports. From a passenger standpoint, Johnson said the most troubling data to watch is what is happening between ONT and LAX.

"The airlines right now don't appear to be motivated in a different direction," Johnson said. "What we see right now is that decline continuing."

News of the projected downward trend falls in line with what ONT experienced in 2012. ONT passenger traffic dropped by 5.4 percent from 2011. This is in contrast to most other airports in the region, which saw some signs of recovery.

ONT hit its high-water mark for passenger traffic in 2007, when 7.2 million people passed through. That year set records for passenger traffic at all the regional airports in Southern California, Johnson said.

In 2007, LAX's 69 percent market share was at its lowest while ONT had one of its highest - capturing 8 percent of the regional market.

But the recession forced a change in the way airlines did business, which involved retreating from medium-hub airports.

In addition, ONT has seen a 40 percent decline in its passenger traffic since 2008.

LAX's increase goes against the terms of a 2006 settlement of a lawsuit over expansion plans at the airport. The settlement required the redistribution of air traffic throughout the region.

LAWA officials have steadfastly maintained the agency has done all it can to promote the use of the region's smaller airports but it cannot force airlines to fly out of Ontario. The officials said the slumping economy is the major reason for the loss of passengers at ONT.

There is some good news for ONT: The load factor, or the number of passengers per flight, has come up a bit. It is now at 75 percent, which helps stem some of the passenger loss. In 2007, that figure was 72 percent.

But Ontario Councilman Jim Bowman, a member of the 's board, questioned the reason for the increase.

"It would seem reasonable that those loads have come up because they reduced flights," Bowman said.

Air cargo also remains one of the bright spots at ONT, but the only way the service can grow is by expanding its cargo facilities.

ONT and LAX are the only airports in the region to be able to provide air-cargo services.

The other airports are constrained by space and the quality of their runways, Johnson said.

When the recession hit, air cargo suffered throughout the United States. The decline caused realignment in the nation's cargo market, Johnson said.

"We started to see it turn a little bit in 2009, and started to see some recovery in the air-cargo market," he said.

In 2012, ONT's air-cargo business increased by nearly 9 percent over 2011.

"Ontario is still coming back, but more needs to be done. One of those keys is the additional facilities and capabilities here," Johnson said.

The Ontario International Airport Authority board meets again March 4. Ontario International Airport Authority