After the DNC and Embattled Congresswoman Shelley Berkley have spent the last week or so carrying on about how their “internal polling” showed the race tied in NV. A new poll by SurveyUSA shows what we all knew to be true… Dean Heller is leading by five percentage points:

In the election for United States Senator, if you were filling out your ballot right now, would you vote for (choices rotated) Dean Heller, the Republican? Shelley Berkley, the Democrat? Or some other candidate?

(869 Likely Voters. Margin of Sampling Error: ± 3.4%)

All

Gender

Age

Race

Male

Female

18-34

35-49

50-64

65+

18-49

50+

White

Black

Hispanic

Asian/
Other

Dean Heller (R)

44%

50%

37%

42%

41%

45%

51%

42%

47%

50%

8%

47%

33%

Shelley Berkley (D)

39%

36%

43%

35%

40%

43%

37%

38%

41%

35%

75%

37%

39%

Other

9%

6%

11%

9%

9%

8%

8%

9%

8%

8%

4%

7%

18%

Undecided

8%

7%

9%

13%

11%

4%

3%

12%

3%

7%

13%

9%

10%

Likely Voters

100%

52%

48%

25%

28%

28%

19%

53%

47%

62%

8%

19%

11%

Phone

Presidential Vote

Senate Vote

Party Affiliation

Tea Party Member

Cell

Landline

Romney

Obama

Heller

Berkley

Rep

Dem

Ind

Yes

No

Dean Heller (R)

35%

47%

87%

7%

100%

0%

77%

15%

44%

85%

40%

Shelley Berkley (D)

34%

41%

3%

76%

0%

100%

10%

69%

35%

11%

42%

Other

7%

9%

7%

7%

0%

0%

8%

7%

11%

5%

9%

Undecided

24%

4%

3%

10%

0%

0%

5%

10%

9%

0%

9%

Likely Voters

21%

79%

45%

47%

44%

39%

36%

39%

23%

8%

90%

Ideology

Education

Income

Region

Cons

Mod

Lib

HS

Some
College

College

<$40K

$40K-
$80K

>$80K

Las Vegas

Rest of
Clark Co.

Washoe
Co.

Rest of
Nev.

Dean Heller (R)

78%

35%

10%

34%

44%

49%

36%

43%

55%

44%

37%

53%

64%

Shelley Berkley (D)

12%

49%

71%

42%

37%

40%

42%

39%

36%

45%

44%

32%

20%

Other

6%

7%

12%

15%

7%

7%

12%

8%

5%

7%

7%

11%

12%

Undecided

3%

9%

7%

9%

12%

3%

11%

9%

4%

4%

12%

4%

3%

Likely Voters

33%

39%

16%

18%

41%

41%

30%

38%

32%

22%

50%

15%

13%

Do you cast this vote enthusiastically? Or with reservations?

(799 Likely Voters. Margin of Sampling Error: ± 3.1%)

All

Gender

Age

Race

Male

Female

18-34

35-49

50-64

65+

18-49

50+

White

Black

Hispanic

Asian/
Other

Enthusiastically

73%

78%

67%

65%

76%

76%

75%

71%

76%

73%

73%

71%

79%

With Reservations

23%

19%

27%

29%

19%

22%

21%

23%

22%

23%

26%

24%

16%

Not Sure

4%

3%

5%

7%

5%

2%

4%

6%

3%

4%

1%

5%

5%

Likely Voters

100%

53%

47%

24%

27%

29%

20%

51%

49%

63%

8%

19%

10%

Phone

Presidential Vote

Senate Vote

Party Affiliation

Tea Party Member

Cell

Landline

Romney

Obama

Heller

Berkley

Rep

Dem

Ind

Yes

No

Enthusiastically

56%

77%

79%

71%

78%

75%

75%

74%

71%

87%

72%

With Reservations

33%

20%

17%

24%

18%

22%

21%

22%

26%

11%

24%

Not Sure

11%

3%

4%

4%

4%

3%

4%

4%

4%

2%

4%

Likely Voters

17%

83%

47%

46%

48%

43%

37%

39%

23%

8%

89%

Ideology

Education

Income

Region

Cons

Mod

Lib

HS

Some
College

College

<$40K

$40K-
$80K

>$80K

Las Vegas

Rest of
Clark Co.

Washoe
Co.

Rest of
Nev.

Enthusiastically

81%

70%

72%

70%

73%

74%

70%

69%

80%

73%

71%

80%

74%

With Reservations

15%

27%

23%

24%

22%

23%

27%

25%

17%

22%

26%

17%

18%

Not Sure

4%

3%

5%

6%

5%

3%

3%

6%

3%

5%

3%

3%

8%

Likely Voters

34%

39%

17%

18%

39%

43%

29%

38%

33%

23%

48%

16%

13%

Is your opinion of Shelley Berkley: Favorable? Unfavorable? Neutral? Or do you have no opinion one way or the other?

(869 Likely Voters. Margin of Sampling Error: ± 3.4%)

All

Gender

Age

Race

Male

Female

18-34

35-49

50-64

65+

18-49

50+

White

Black

Hispanic

Asian/
Other

Favorable

29%

27%

30%

20%

32%

32%

31%

26%

32%

26%

61%

23%

30%

Unfavorable

43%

48%

37%

41%

43%

40%

48%

42%

43%

48%

9%

44%

34%

Neutral

22%

21%

24%

32%

18%

20%

18%

25%

19%

20%

21%

28%

25%

No Opinion

6%

4%

9%

7%

6%

8%

3%

7%

6%

6%

9%

4%

12%

Likely Voters

100%

52%

48%

25%

28%

28%

19%

53%

47%

62%

8%

19%

11%

Phone

Presidential Vote

Senate Vote

Party Affiliation

Tea Party Member

Cell

Landline

Romney

Obama

Heller

Berkley

Rep

Dem

Ind

Yes

No

Favorable

21%

31%

3%

55%

1%

71%

8%

53%

22%

5%

31%

Unfavorable

35%

45%

75%

13%

79%

3%

67%

19%

46%

82%

39%

Neutral

36%

18%

14%

27%

16%

24%

17%

25%

24%

12%

23%

No Opinion

8%

6%

7%

5%

4%

2%

8%

4%

7%

2%

7%

Likely Voters

21%

79%

45%

47%

44%

39%

36%

39%

23%

8%

="top">90%

Ideology

Education

Income

Region

Cons

Mod

Lib

HS

Some
College

College

<$40K

$40K-
$80K

>$80K

Las Vegas

Rest of
Clark Co.

Washoe
Co.

Rest of
Nev.

Favorable

9%

35%

55%

28%

27%

31%

30%

28%

28%

34%

31%

22%

17%

Unfavorable

66%

37%

21%

28%

42%

50%

34%

42%

53%

41%

35%

61%

54%

Neutral

20%

24%

20%

30%

24%

16%

25%

26%

14%

19%

26%

15%

19%

No Opinion

6%

4%

4%

14%

6%

3%

11%

4%

5%

6%

7%

2%

9%

Likely Voters

33%

39%

16%

18%

41%

41%

30%

38%

32%

22%

50%

15%

13%

Is your opinion of Dean Heller: Favorable? Unfavorable? Neutral? Or do you have no opinion one way or the other?

(869 Likely Voters. Margin of Sampling Error: ± 3.4%

All

Gender

Age

Race

Male

Female

18-34

35-49

50-64

65+

18-49

50+

White

Black

Hispanic

Asian/
Other

Favorable

32%

37%

27%

28%

27%

35%

39%

28%

37%

37%

2%

35%

22%

Unfavorable

35%

34%

37%

28%

36%

40%

37%

32%

39%

37%

52%

22%

36%

Neutral

24%

24%

24%

33%

28%

17%

17%

30%

17%

20%

30%

36%

21%

No Opinion

8%

5%

12%

10%

9%

8%

6%

9%

7%

6%

15%

7%

20%

Likely Voters

100%

52%

48%

25%

28%

28%

19%

53%

47%

62%

8%

19%

11%

Phone

Presidential Vote

Senate Vote

Party Affiliation

Tea Party Member

Cell

Landline

Romney

Obama

Heller

Berkley

Rep

Dem

Ind

Yes

No

Favorable

18%

36%

67%

2%

71%

0%

57%

10%

30%

76%

28%

Unfavorable

26%

38%

6%

64%

2%

71%

15%

56%

35%

15%

38%

Neutral

46%

18%

21%

25%

25%

21%

21%

24%

28%

9%

26%

No Opinion

10%

8%

6%

9%

2%

7%

7%

10%

6%

1%

9%

Likely Voters

21%

79%

45%

47%

44%

39%

36%

39%

23%

8%

90%

Ideology

Education

Income

Region

Cons

Mod

Lib

HS

Some
College

College

<$40K

$40K-
$80K

>$80K

Las Vegas

Rest of
Clark Co.

Washoe
Co.

Rest of
Nev.

Favorable

61%

23%

7%

22%

32%

37%

29%

29%

41%

28%

26%

44%

52%

Unfavorable

13%

44%

61%

32%

35%

36%

31%

38%

33%

39%

34%

42%

27%

Neutral

20%

27%

27%

26%

25%

22%

24%

27%

22%

27%

29%

12%

16%

No Opinion

7%

6%

6%

19%

8%

4%

16%

7%

4%

7%

12%

2%

6%

Likely Voters

33%

39%

16%

18%

41%

41%

30%

38%

32%

22%

50%

15%

13%

Are you following news stories about a House Ethics Committee investigation of Shelley Berkley?

(869 Likely Voters.Margin of Sampling Error: ± 3.3%)

All

Gender

Age

Race

Male

Female

18-34

35-49

50-64

65+

18-49

50+

White

Black

Hispanic

Asian/
Other

Yes

59%

59%

59%

50%

61%

62%

65%

56%

63%

63%

57%

49%

55%

No

34%

35%

33%

44%

34%

31%

26%

38%

29%

31%

33%

44%

34%

Not Sure

7%

6%

9%

6%

6%

8%

10%

6%

9%

6%

10%

7%

12%

Likely Voters

100%

52%

48%

25%

28%

28%

19%

53%

47%

62%

8%

19%

11%

Phone

Presidential Vote

Senate Vote

Party Affiliation

Tea Party Member

Cell

Landline

Romney

Obama

Heller

Berkley

Rep

Dem

Ind

Yes

No

Yes

51%

61%

61%

60%

62%

62%

55%

56%

70%

59%

59%

No

42%

32%

34%

30%

34%

30%

38%

34%

27%

37%

34%

Not Sure

7%

7%

5%

10%

3%

8%

6%

10%

3%

4%

7%

Likely Voters

21%

79%

45%

47%

44%

39%

36%

39%

23%

8%

90%

Ideology

Education

Income

Region

Cons

Mod

Lib

HS

Some
College

College

<$40K

$40K-
$80K

>$80K

Las Vegas

Rest of
Clark Co.

Washoe
Co.

Rest of
Nev.

Yes

59%

60%

66%

47%

53%

70%

56%

57%

64%

61%

57%

69%

51%

No

36%

36%

25%

35%

40%

27%

30%

37%

33%

32%

35%

26%

43%

Not Sure

5%

4%

9%

18%

7%

3%

14%

6%

2%

7%

8%

6%

7%

Likely Voters

33%

39%

16%

18%

41%

41%

30%

38%

32%

22%

50%

15%

13%

Does the House Ethics Committee investigation make more likely to vote for Shelley Berkley? More likely to vote for Dean Heller? Or does it not influence your vote one way or the other?

(512 Following Stories. Margin of Sampling Error: ± 4.4%)

All

Gender

Age

Race

Male

Female

18-34

35-49

50-64

65+

18-49

50+

White

Black

Hispanic

Asian/
Other

More Likely To Vote For Berkley

14%

15%

14%

14%

9%

14%

23%

11%

18%

13%

38%

11%

10%

More Likely To Vote For Heller

42%

46%

38%

48%

40%

40%

40%

43%

40%

45%

15%

50%

29%

Does Not Influence Your Vote

40%

38%

42%

33%

42%

45%

36%

38%

42%

40%

36%

36%

52%

Not Sure

4%

1%

7%

4%

9%

1%

0%

7%

1%

3%

11%

3%

9%

Following Stories

100%

53%

47%

22%

29%

29%

21%

50%

50%

66%

8%

16%

10%

Phone

Presidential Vote

Senate Vote

Party Affiliation

Tea Party Member

Cell

Landline

Romney

Obama

Heller

Berkley

Rep

Dem

Ind

Yes

No

More Likely To Vote For Berkley

10%

15%

1%

28%

0%

34%

3%

28%

11%

5%

15%

More Likely To Vote For Heller

45%

41%

74%

12%

80%

3%

73%

18%

36%

63%

40%

Does Not Influence Your Vote

31%

42%

24%

53%

20%

56%

24%

47%

49%

32%

41%

Not Sure

13%

2%

0%

7%

0%

6%

0%

8%

4%

0%

4%

Following Stories

18%

82%

46%

47%

47%

41%

34%

37%

27%

7%

90%

Ideology

Education

Income

Region

Cons

Mod

Lib

HS

Some
College

College

<$40K

$40K-
$80K

>$80K

Las Vegas

Rest of
Clark Co.

Washoe
Co.

Rest of
Nev.

More Likely To Vote For Berkley

5%

17%

24%

20%

11%

14%

19%

13%

9%

14%

17%

11%

8%

More Likely To Vote For Heller

69%

32%

19%

38%

45%

41%

37%

38%

52%

40%

38%

50%

50%

Does Not Influence Your Vote

25%

49%

47%

38%

42%

39%

41%

44%

34%

45%

38%

38%

40%

Not Sure

1%

1%

10%

3%

2%

5%

3%

4%

5%

1%

7%

1%

1%

Following Stories

33%

40%

18%

14%

37%

48%

28%

37%

35%

23%

48%

18%

11%

Research conducted bilingually, in English and in Spanish; cell-phone and home-phone respondents.

SurveyUSA interviewed 1,200 adults from the state of Nevada 08/16/12 through 08/21/12. Of the adults, 985 were registered to vote in Nevada. Of the registered voters, 869 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the 11/06/12 election for President of the United States.

This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (79% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Telephone respondents in portions of Nevada with concentrations of Spanish speakers were offered the option to take the survey in their choice of Spanish or English.

Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (21% of likely voters), were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone or other electronic device. 80% of the interviews for this survey were completed before comments about rape and pregnancy took center stage in the presidential election.

About the Poll

This poll was conducted by telephone in the voice of a professional announcer. Respondent households were selected at random, using Random Digit Dialed (RDD) sample provided by Survey Sampling, of Fairfield CT. All respondents heard the questions asked identically. The pollster’s report includes the geography that was surveyed; the date(s) interviews were conducted, the number of respondents who answered each question and the theoretical margin of sampling error for each question. Where necessary, respondents were weighted using the most recent US Census estimates for age, gender, ethnic origin and region, to align the sample to the population. In theory, one can say with 95% certainty that the results would not vary by more than the stated margin of sampling error, in one direction or the other, had the entire universe of respondents with home telephones been interviewed with complete accuracy. There are other possible sources of error in all surveys that may be more serious than sampling error. These include: the difficulty of interviewing respondents who do not have a home telephone; the refusal by some with home telephones to be interviewed; the order in which questions are asked; the wording of questions; the way and extent to which data are weighted; and the manner in which specialized populations, such as likely voters, are determined. It is difficult to quantify the errors that may result from these and other factors. Research methodology, questionnaire design and fieldwork for this survey were completed by SurveyUSA of Clifton, NJ. This statement conforms to the principles of disclosure of the National Council on Public Polls.

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A former U.S.Marine, he is the Creator of The Minority Report Network. He is also the Founder and Managing Editor of the Network’s flagship site, www.theminorityreportblog.com, Former Director of New Media for Liberty.com, Former Director of New Media for Liberty First PAC, and the Former Chief Managing Editor of 73Wire.com. Steve is a well respected national conservative blogger who’s dedicated the past several years of his life advancing conservatism online. Recently Steve was instrumental in the development of Liberty.com, Liberty First PAC, The Patriot Caucus, the national campaign trail and grassroots news site73wire.com.