May Madness: Men's Division I Bracketology: First Look, April 18

With the inauguration of the Big East Tournament and the league's automatic qualifier, it seems that the fight for the NCAA tournament is as competitive as ever in 2012. With the number of automatic bids at seven this season, there will be 54 teams competing for the nine at-large spots.

Below, we view each of the conferences with automatic bids (which excludes the ACC and NEC this year) and discuss the teams in contention. We also look at the at-large bids, the last four teams likely to make it to the NCAA Tournament, and the last four out.

While the Division I Men’s Lacrosse Committee considers a wide array of factors, the discussion below considers record, strength of schedule, head-to-head results and significant wins and losses.

America East

Tournament: May 2, May 5 at Higher SeedFavorite: Stony Brook (4-8, 3-0)
RPI: 34
Stony Brook survived a fourth quarter surge by UMBC on Saturday for a season-defining victory. Mike Rooney shined in the victory, scoring five goals. Rooney and Stony Brook possess one of the most potent EMO units, as they currently rank eighth in the nation.

In Contention

UMBC (4-6, 2-1)
RPI: 27
UMBC pulled one of the upsets of the season when FOGO Phil Poe and company defeated in-state rival Maryland. They have played the ninth-hardest schedule of any team in the nation. This offense could be fun to watch in the tournament, as they have the highest assist rate of any team.

Albany (3-8, 3-0)
RPI: 41
After starting the season 0-7, Albany has bounced back by winning three of its last four. The remaining schedule will be difficult for the Great Danes, as they still have to play UMBC, Siena and Stony Brook.

Big East

Tournament: May 3, May 5 at VillanovaFavorite: Notre Dame (9-1, 4-0)
PRI: 6
This weekend’s ESPNU broadcast between Notre Dame and Villanova could well decide the No. 1 seed in the Big East Tournament, as the two conference undefeateds battle at Villanova. Notre Dame, led by John Kemp (ranked first in save percentage) and its top-rated defense, has seen its offense begin to explode in recent weeks, as it has scored in over 30% of its possessions in 6 of the past 7 games. They host Syracuse in the final game of the regular season.

In Contention

Villanova (8-4, 4-0)
RPI: 12
Villanova has quietly put together another stellar season under coach Mike Corrado as its senior class seeks to make the NCAA Tournament for the third time. Having already beaten Syracuse, a win Saturday would all but clinch the Wildcats the No. 1 seed in the Big East Tournament. ND’s Kemp will have his toughest task this weekend, as the ’Cats put the third-most shots on goal per possession in the nation.

Syracuse (7-5, 3-1)
RPI: 16
Syracuse’s chances for an at-large bid were revived with its 10-9 win over Princeton. They have Georgetown and Notre Dame remaining in conference play before the tournament.

CAA

Tournament: May 2, May 5 at Higher SeedFavorite: UMass (11-0, 4-0)
RPI: 5
The CAA could produce two NCAA Tournament teams (and are almost a lock if UMass doesn’t win the AQ) as coach Greg Cannella’s squad is the favorite to gain the No. 1 seed in the CAA Tournament with wins over Penn State, Towson, Drexel and St. Joe’s. The Minutemen feature the No. 1 adjusted efficiency margin in the nation.

In Contention

Penn State (7-5, 3-1)
RPI: 11
Penn State has really benefited from an early-season victory against Notre Dame as they look for an at-large bid. They have currently played the third-hardest schedule in the nation.

Drexel (5-7, 3-2)
RPI: 21
Drexel has also played a very difficult schedule (fifth-best), having lost heartbreakers to Virginia, Notre Dame, Penn State and UMass. Close defenseman Dana Wilber and the Dragons have one of the top defenses in the conference as they seek to avenge their conference losses in the CAA Tournament.

Towson (7-5, 2-2)
RPI: 19
Towson’s game against Drexel this weekend is a must-win if they are to make a case for an at-large bid.

Hofstra (6-6, 2-2)
RPI: 28
Hofstra played UNC very competitively last Saturday, but surrendered five straight goals to close the game. With their tournament hopes dwindling, a win against UMass this weekend might be their only shot at an at-large bid.

ECAC

Tournament: May 4, May 6 at DenverFavorite: Loyola (11-0, 5-0)
RPI: 1
Loyola is a strong candidate to host its first NCAA Tournament game since 2000. With just Hobart remaining in conference play (and then an NCAA seed-booster in two weeks at home against Johns Hopkins), they will be the No. 1 seed in the ECAC Tournament and host the tourney next year.

In Contention

Ohio State (6-6, 3-1)
RPI: 20
Ohio State almost pulled one of the most improbable comebacks against Loyola in their 8-7 loss, but their effort proved to be too little, too late. This squad still boasts the seventh-ranked defense.

Fairfield (10-2, 3-1)
RPI: 13
Fairfield has overtime wins against Bryant, UMBC and Quinnipiac. Their adjusted face-off percentage ranks third in the nation. Among remaining regular-season games against Denver or Ohio State and the first-round ECAC matchup, two of three wins would substantially help their case for an at-large bid.

Denver (7-4 3-2)
RPI: 15
After making the Final Four last year, many fans would like to see exciting players like attackman Mark Matthews, middie Chase Carraro and company make the tournament again. With the ECAC Tournament in Denver, where they are 5-1 this season, they could make a push for the automatic bid. For their at-large hopes, Denver’s best bet is that Penn State becomes a Top 10 RPI win, Robert Morris a Top 20 and Fairfield, if they beat the Stags this weekend, remains a Top 20 win. Or go for the jugular and beat Duke at the Whitman's® Sampler® Mile High Classic.

Ivy

Tournament: May 4, May 6 at Regular Season ChampionFavorite: Cornell (9-1, 4-0)
RPI: 9
After dropping its contest in overtime to Virginia, Cornell has arguably been the best team in the nation, torching Syracuse as well as defeating a very good Denver squad. Their offense currently ranks second in the nation thanks to the stellar play of individuals such as Matt Donovan (14G, 13A).

In Contention

Princeton (8-3, 4-0)
RPI: 17
Princeton’s quality win this season comes at Villanova. The loss to Syracuse certainly hurt this squad, as it let the Orange back into the talk for the last few at-large bids.

Yale (7-4, 3-2)
RPI: 31
Yale dropped a five-overtime contest to Princeton, as well as its game a week prior to Cornell, for its two Ivy losses. Yale’s staggering 19-goal output in its first game against a very good St. John’s team is looking more impressive, but it's still not a Top 20 win.

MAAC

Tournament: May 4, May 6 at MaristFavorite: Siena (8-3, 4-0)
RPI: 33
After dropping three of its first four games, Siena has now won seven straight. This up-tempo team (second in pace) will likely have to head to Baltimore for a first-round NCAA Tournament game, a change from staying in New York.

In Contention

Marist (6-4, 3-1)
RPI: 35
Marist’s defense is one of the most underrated in all of lacrosse, as they force the highest percentage of shots off cage. Ethan Fox leads the defense with 12 CT. They almost pulled the upset of the year in an 11-10 loss to Duke. This Saturday, they travel to Siena where a win could help their quest to be a No. 1 seed in the MAAC Tournament, which they host.

Detroit (6-6, 3-2)
RPI: 43
Detroit handed Marist its only loss in conference play this season. Meanwhile, Detroit has dropped conference games to Siena and Manhattan.

Patriot League

Tournament: April 27, April 29 at Highest SeedFavorite: Colgate (10-2, 4-1)
RPI: 14
If Colgate beats Bucknell this weekend, they’ll host the league tournament despite finishing 5-1 (in a presumptive tie with Lehigh, who travels to Lafayette Saturday) because their win over the Mountain Hawks is the first tie-breaker. If the season were to end today, Colgate likely would not receive an at-large bid. However, if Bucknell remains a Top 20 win, Colgate wins its first-round Patriot Tournament matchup and the Raiders beat Maryland again in their season finale, their resume would be slightly stronger than last year, when they were considered the first team out.

In Contention

Lehigh (11-2, 4-1)
RPI: 8
Despite being in the passenger’s seat for Patriot Tournament hosting honors, Lehigh has the league’s strongest at-large resume thanks to a Top 10 win over Carolina, Top 20 wins over Bucknell and Penn State and a strong RPI.

Bucknell (9-5, 3-2)
RPI: 18
The Bison’s eight-game win streak feels like a distant memory thanks to two one-goal losses in the last 11 days. Lacking a signature win, the volume of quality wins is Bucknell’s strongest NCAA Tournament claim, and it might take three more — which would coincidentally mean winning the Patriot League — to secure a return trip to the NCAA Tournament.

Potential Tournament Seeding

Loyola remains a strong candidate for the No. 1 seed, and if they remain undefeated, their resume only improves. Hopkins has a strong case for the No. 2 seed, though their remaining game with Loyola obviously has significant implications (though it’s hard to say how far, if at all, a loss would drop them). In a year when the AQ favorites skew north and the seeded teams skew south, working out travel and trying to limit flights will likely be an issue (but let’s not focus on that too much while there’s so much left to be played).

1. Loyola
Siena

2. Virginia
Penn State

3. Johns Hopkins
Stony Brook

4. Duke
Lehigh

5. UMass
Colgate

6. Notre Dame
Denver

7. Maryland
North Carolina

8. Cornell
Villanova

Related

Check out ILWomen.com on Thursday for the first edition of women's bracketology.