Articles on Bill 148

Independent Economic Impact Analysis reinforces the concerns of Peterborough businesses around Bill 148​Bill 148 will put 185,000 jobs at risk in Ontario and increase the cost of consumer goods and services by $1,300 per household starting in 2018, according to new analysis by leading economics firm

PETERBOROUGH, Monday, August 14 - Today the Keep Ontario Working Coalition (KOW), in partnership with the Ontario Chamber of Commerce (OCC) and the Greater Peterborough Chamber of Commerce released the first and only independent economic impact analysis of Bill 148, the Fair Workplaces Better Jobs Act. Conducted by the Canadian Centre for Economic Analysis (CANCEA), the study revealed that if the legislation is implemented as currently drafted, there will be significant, sudden and sizable uncertainty for Ontario jobs, economy and communities.

The study also shows that small businesses are likely to be affected five times more than larger business.

“The results of the economic analysis presented today reinforce the concerns that were presented at a roundtable we held with local businesses and the Minister Responsible for Small Business in mid-June,” says Stuart Harrison, President & CEO, Peterborough Chamber of Commerce. ”Bill 148 is too much, too soon and the uncertainty it presents to business has the potential to have significant impact.”

In the regional analysis of impact, CANCEA predicts that just over 2.7% of jobs in Peterborough will be at risk, which is above average when compared to other areas of the province.They say the impact depends on demographics and industry in each region.

“The changes presented in Bill 148 will have dramatic unintended consequences that include putting 185,000 jobs at risk and seeing everyday consumer goods and services increase by $1,300 for each and every family in Ontario,” said Karl Baldauf, Vice President of Policy and Government Relations at the Ontario Chamber of Commerce and spokesperson for the Keep Ontario Working Coalition. “We’ve run the numbers, if the Ontario government chooses to proceed with these sweeping reforms too quickly, all of us will be affected, and the most vulnerable in our society chief among them.”

CANCEA was commissioned by the KOW coalition to measure the potential impacts of six key areas of change in Bill 148, including changes to minimum wages, “equal pay” provisions, vacation, scheduling, personal emergency leave (PEL) and unionization.

Data from the economic impact analysis shows:

$23 billion hit to business over the next two years alone

185,000 Ontario jobs will be at immediate risk over the next two years

30,000 of the jobs at risk are youth under 25

96,000 employees at risk are expected to be women

50 per cent increase to inflation for this year and the foreseeable future. The cost of everyday consumer goods and services will go up by $1,300 per household on average each and every year

The Ontario government would need to borrow $440 million more to cover the increases in new costs from this legislation. If the government were to provide offsets to businesses, as they have indicated, the province’s treasury will take a bigger hit

Municipalities will be forced to increase employee wages by $500 million without additional offsetting revenues (In its 2018 budget forecast, the City of Peterborough estimated that minimum wage changes alone could have an impact as high as $200,000).

​“Simple accounting reveals that the Act creates a $23 billion challenge for Ontario businesses over two years. Annualized, this is 21 per cent of what Ontario businesses invest in capital,” Paul Smetanin, President, CANCEA. “Given the significant, sudden and sizable changes it would be remiss to expect that unintended consequences would not follow.”

“Given the scale of impact and pace of change, it will be impossible for the provincial government to make businesses, even small businesses, whole through offsets,” added Baldauf. “With amendments to the first reading of Bill 148 due this Wednesday, the legislation will need to see serious change including an adjusted timeline for implementation.”

Since Bill 148 was introduced in June, the KOW coalition has called on the government to conduct an economic impact analysis to fully understand how the legislation will change Ontario’s economy.With the government unwilling to do so, the report released today represents the first and only independent economic impact analysis of this legislation.

About CANCEA:CANCEA is a state-of-the-art interdisciplinary research organization that is dedicated to objective, independent and evidence based analysis. They have a long history of providing holistic and collaborative understanding of the short- and long-term risks and returns behind policy decisions and prosperity. For more, go to cancea.ca.