Division at the heart of Israeli politics

On the night that Israel opened its assault on Hamas targets in Gaza, three politicians staged a solemn show of unity.

Tzipi Livni had called on Ehud Olmert to step down as prime ministerPhoto: EPA

By David Blair, Diplomatic Editor

5:02PM GMT 13 Jan 2009

Ehud Olmert, the prime minister, announced the onset of the campaign side-by-side with Tzipi Livni, the foreign minister, and Ehud Barak, the defence minister.

This trio will decide the course of the Gaza offensive and, crucially, the moment it ends. While they present themselves as dispassionate policy-makers, they are also deadly rivals.

Miss Livni, who succeeded Mr Olmert as leader of the centrist Kadima party, publicly demanded her superior's resignation when an inquiry severely criticised his conduct of the war in Lebanon in 2006. Even by the standards of a democracy, Israeli politicians are notable for their tendency to argue in public – and Miss Livni has been a persistent thorn in Mr Olmert's flesh.

When corruption charges effectively ended Mr Olmert's career last year, Miss Livni seized the opportunity to push him aside and win the leadership of Kadima. She will go into the general election on Feb 10 as a candidate for the premiership, while Mr Olmert, who is now merely a caretaker prime minister, will retire the moment a new government is formed.

When Miss Livni fights the election, one of her key opponents will be her cabinet colleague, Mr Barak, who is also leader of the Labour party. As well as taking crucial decisions in Israel's best interests, these rivals are busily circling each another.

They are also looking over their shoulder at their key opponent outside the cabinet room: Benjamin Netanyahu, the leader of the Right-wing Likud party. Until the onset of the Gaza campaign, Mr Netanyahu enjoyed a strong lead in the opinion polls and seemed on course to win the election. But the offensive has boosted the popularity of both Miss Livni and Mr Barak, making the scales more equal.

Both ministers will be careful to avoid agreeing any terms for a ceasefire in Gaza which would leave them exposed to attack from Mr Netanyahu. Equally, neither Miss Livni nor Mr Barak will want to give the other an opening to criticise their performance during the military campaign.

All this inevitably complicates every decision made at the highest level. When Israel faced a diplomatic offensive in the United Nations last week, Miss Livni was left with an impossible choice.

She could travel to New York and take the blame for the passage of a hostile resolution. Or she could stay in Israel and try to avoid responsibility. In the event, Miss Livni stayed at home and tried to dissociate herself from the debacle which saw the passage of UN Resolution 1860 calling for an "immediate" ceasefire. For their part, Mr Olmert and Mr Barak were happy to let her take the blame.

A survey conducted by Tel Aviv University yesterday found that 94 per cent of Israelis support the Gaza campaign. While the public appear united, the same cannot be said of their politicians.