Was Matt Ryan's 2016 MVP season a blip or a trend?

Was Matt Ryan's 2016 MVP season a blip or a trend?

The MVP award in the National Football league is an outstanding achievement for any player, but especially when that player validates the award in the playoffs. This was the case for Matt Ryan in 2016, as he followed up the best regular season of his career with a postseason performance that was nearly good enough to win the Super Bowl.

The Falcons fell just short, despite Ryan looking like the most valuable player for the duration of the 34-28 overtime loss to the Patriots. There is a certain negative stigma that tends to follow Super Bowl losing teams, however, and the position under the most scrutiny is quarterback.

It happened in 2015, after Cam Newton took the league by storm, winning the MVP crown and leading his team to an eventual Super Bowl loss to the Denver Broncos. Newton did not look like the same player in 2016. And even though he’s had a pretty solid overall career with the Panthers, his perceived status among the NFL’s elite passers took a definite hit due to this past season’s drop off.

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Similarly, Ryan has always been considered an above average quarterback and in that top 10 discussion. Before 2016 though, people were not using the term elite when his name came up. This begs the question: was 2016 a sign of what is to come from Ryan, or was it just one fantastic year?

Here’s what the stats tell us…

Matt Ryan’s Yearly Passing Stats

2008: 3,440 Yards, 16 TDs, 11 INTs, 61.1 Comp. %, 87.7 QB Rating

2009: 2,916 Yards, 22 TDs, 14 INTs, 58.3 Comp. %, 80.9 QB Rating

2010: 3,705 Yards, 28 TDs, 9 INTs, 62.5 Comp. %, 91.0 QB Rating

2011: 4,177 Yards, 29 TDs, 12 INTs, 61.3 Comp. %, 92.2 QB Rating

2012: 4.719 Yards, 32 TDs, 14 INTs, 68.6 Comp. %, 99.1 QB Rating

2013: 4,515 Yards, 26 TDs, 17 INTs, 67.4 Comp. %, 89.6 QB Rating

2014: 4,694 Yards, 28 TDs, 14 INTs, 66.1 Comp. %, 93.9 QB Rating

2015: 4,591 Yards, 21 TDs, 16 INTs, 66.3 Comp. %, 89.0 QB Rating

2016: 4,944 Yards, 38 TDs, 7 INTs, 69.9 Comp. %, 117.1 QB Rating

Career: 37,701 Yards, 240 TDs, 114 INTs, 64.9 Comp. %, 93.6 QB Rating

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After never cracking a quarterback rating of one hundred for a season, Ryan put up a sensational 117.1 rating in 2016. His touchdown total (38) was by far the highest of his career. Where you can really see a trend, though, is in the consistent uptick in completion percentage and yardage totals.

During Ryan’s first four seasons, he never posted a completion percentage as high as 63%, while over the past five, Ryan has averaged 67.7%. He threw for 4,000+ yards just once in his first four years, but has averaged nearly 4,700 yards annually since 2012.

Now, the biggest two-year differential of his career is clearly from 2015 to 2016, when Ryan had an increase of 16 touchdowns and a 28-point climb in quarterback rating. Comparing the past two seasons alone would suggest 2016 was an abnormality. His interceptions totals in recent years have been much higher than his career-low seven during his MVP campaign.

Regardless of how you slice it, Ryan was damn good last season and there’s no reason to think he can’t keep it up with the weapons Atlanta has surrounded him with. The fact that Dan Quinn seems to finally be building a competent defensive unit likely correlates with Ryan’s statistical outburst and is another reason the future remains bright for the 32-year-old quarterback.

If Ryan doesn’t put up video game numbers again in 2017, some will be quick to place him back in that second tier of quarterbacks. But more important than the perception of his status in the league is the fact that “Matty Ice” has proven he can play his best football on the game’s biggest stages.