I am afraid, others will find bumping this thread a lot more enjoyable )

If Romney wins MA, he wins, at least, 40 other states as well. He should, of course, do better than most recent Republicans - I am almost certain he'd get into the 40s, may be even come close to 45%. He will, probably, win in Plymouth county and might win Worcester. He'd struggle in Norfolk and Barnstable and almost certainly loose the rest of it, mostly by big margins.

To do much better than that, he'd have to run against the national Republican party, on a VERY liberal platform. He could do this when running for governor - he'd never be able to pull it off running for President. Even then it would be a strong lean D, though.

But there is no reason for him even to try to win MA - it would be a ridiculous use of limited campaing resources.

We're just talking past each other right now. Should an economic collapse/foreign policy humiliation occur between now and November, I may be vindicated.

Mittens needs only a 5% swing in his favour in Massachusetts. I see that as a fairly plausible event if the economy starts collapsing again before November and/or Obama suffers a serious foreign policy humiliation in the Middle East.

Basing yourself on a particularly favorable poll months before the election, while ignoring everything else, is not very smart.

Well, may be, if Obama lets Netaniyahu rape one of his daughters and have it shown in a prime time news broadcast. I don't, know, may be...

I'm not talking a near-meltdown, I'm talking a total meltdown, on account of the fact that implementing a second bailout ala the 2008 one would be politically impossible in the present congress.

You should keep in mind that back in 2008 serious people were talking about the coming meltdown many months, if not years, before it happened. By this time in 2008 sh**t was hitting the fan really strongly. Bear went down in March, if you are old enough to recall. There is NOTHING remotely like that in the offing this time. So, stop dreaming.

I'm not talking a near-meltdown, I'm talking a total meltdown, on account of the fact that implementing a second bailout ala the 2008 one would be politically impossible in the present congress.

You should keep in mind that back in 2008 serious people were talking about the coming meltdown many months, if not years, before it happened. By this time in 2008 sh**t was hitting the fan really strongly. Bear went down in March, if you are old enough to recall. There is NOTHING remotely like that in the offing this time. So, stop dreaming.

Actually their have been several years worth of concerned discussion about a possible slowdown in China, with outright assertions of a property bubble and unsustainable growth for more then a year past. Same holds true for concerns about the eurozone. If you've been following any of the commentary on the international economic situation you will have noticed countless respectable commentators(The Economist, for example) propounding on their potential to set of a recession/depression.

Oh, okay, so this ridiculous idea rest upon some random second Great Depression happening between now and Election Day?

Have you been following the situation in China and Europe?.... stupid question, you're Irish. So you've no excuse for rejecting the possibility of the European situation triggering a depression before the year is up.

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Guys, if Obama nuked California would Romney flip it??

Yes, but highly unlikely to happen.

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EDIT: Rockingham, this board is so full of terrible, terrible threads like this that you can't blame people for venting their annoyance a little.

Your assuming the swing would have to be identical between states. Whereas recent polling shows Romney doing a lot better then McCain in Massachussets(40% Romney to 51% Obama), and that's leaving a substantial undecided vote. Assuming it splits slightly favourably to Romney, that's 45/55%. Which means he only needs an additional 5% swing over the course of this campaign.

Simple math folks.

Rasmussen has been showing better results for Republicans a lot of places, Obama certainly will be well over 50% on election day. Second, uniform swing I referring to is based on the previous presidential vote. With a big national swing, Romney would have to over-perform in a big way in Massachusetts to get 45% and he just doesn't have that sort of appeal in the state. 1-2% points from what McCain got may be possible, but beyond that, it's not going to be much different.

« Last Edit: May 04, 2012, 07:29:32 pm by DrScholl »

Logged

Creepy your fascination with me. Don't worry, this is just the penultimate.

I'm not talking a near-meltdown, I'm talking a total meltdown, on account of the fact that implementing a second bailout ala the 2008 one would be politically impossible in the present congress.

You should keep in mind that back in 2008 serious people were talking about the coming meltdown many months, if not years, before it happened. By this time in 2008 sh**t was hitting the fan really strongly. Bear went down in March, if you are old enough to recall. There is NOTHING remotely like that in the offing this time. So, stop dreaming.

Actually their have been several years worth of concerned discussion about a possible slowdown in China, with outright assertions of a property bubble and unsustainable growth for more then a year past. Same holds true for concerns about the eurozone. If you've been following any of the commentary on the international economic situation you will have noticed countless respectable commentators(The Economist, for example) propounding on their potential to set of a recession/depression.

No dreams mate.

But none of them suggesting actual financial meltdown between now and November. A recession could be more than enough to elect Romney president - but not to have him winning in MA.

In any case, even if that happens, and Romney wins MA (could happen, I've conceded that before, though, of course, extremely unlikely), he would be winning so many other traditional Dem states (at the very least, before Obama looses MA, he'd loose all of Midwest, w/ possible exception of IL, as well as mountain west, PA, NJ, CT, NH, ME and everything south of DC; probably either OR or WA or both as well) that MA would, at most, be an icing on the cake. But, short of a huge landslide, this is, certainly, not happening.

Isn't putting up threads like this a bit of a self indulgence? If one must do it, content should be added, such as I think Mass will trend heavily GOP because blacks are thin on the ground there, the secular center has lost faith in Obama, white Catholics are fleeing in droves, and I base that on this and that, and so forth. JMO.

If we do this state by excruciating state, thread by thread by thread, it will begin to feel like this Board is being well - water boarded.

This thread has outlived any possibility of productive discussion. Locking this one and the Obama wins Utah thread. If anyone really wants me to unlock it after the election to gloat, feel free to PM me about it at that time.