Mets360 2017 projections: Jeurys Familia and Addison Reed

Last year, the suspension for Aroldis Chapman for his domestic violence case was handed out on March 1. Here it is March 21 and we’re still waiting for a decision to be announced on Jeurys Familia. You can say that the league didn’t want to take away from the World Baseball Classic but now that the Dominican Republic has been eliminated, there’s no reason to wait any longer. At the very least, let’s hope that the Commissioner’s office has notified the Mets’ brass and they know what the deal is.

Most of us have been operating under the assumption that Familia will get the same month-long suspension that Chapman did. Someone will have to get Saves while Familia is unable to go and the assumption is that Addison Reed, who was so good last year, will pick up the slack. So, here are our individual forecasts for both Familia and Reed:

Familia

Reed

IP

ERA

WHIP

Saves

IP

ERA

WHIP

Saves

Dalton Allsion

62

2.57

1.175

40

78

3.28

1.245

15

Joe Barbieri

55.3

2.53

1.080

31

46

3.59

1.260

8

John Fox

55

2.35

1.150

40

80

2.25

0.950

8

Charlie Hangley

64

2.61

1.270

43

72

2.27

1.130

14

Brian Joura

65

2.71

1.222

35

77

2.50

1.120

10

Mike Koehler

60

2.45

1.200

37

80

2.15

1.100

12

Matt Netter

70

2.20

1.100

45

85

2.40

1.050

8

Jim O’Malley

65

2.86

1.180

35

85

2.80

1.100

9

Rob Rogan

53

2.85

1.250

34

76

3.25

1.200

12

Mike Ryan

73.3

2.49

0.970

32

85

2.34

1.120

8

Chris Walendin

66

2.35

1.150

38

80

2.25

0.990

16

We all see Familia pitching quite well when he gets to the mound; there’s just a difference over how many Save opportunities he will receive. Joe sees him picking up 31 Saves this year while Matt has a projection of 45. In perhaps a bit of a surprise, four of our 11-person panel feel he’s going to crack 40 Saves again this season.

There’s more variance among our group when it comes to Reed. Most of us feel he’ll turn in another strong performance, with Mike K’s 2.15 ERA leading the charge for the optimists. Yet three guys feel his ERA will top three, with Joe’s 3.59 being the most bearish. This time last year that wouldn’t have seemed bearish at all. But since becoming a Met, Reed has a 1.84 ERA and a 0.957 WHIP in 93 IP.

Here are our official forecasts for both pitchers:

If the Mets get these performances from their top two relievers, the bullpen should be a strong point again. Here’s what the computer models project:

Familia

Reed

IP

ERA

WHIP

Saves

IP

ERA

WHIP

Saves

Mets360

62.7

2.53

1.175

37

76.7

2.40

1.120

11

Steamer

65

3.17

1.260

38

65

3.61

1.200

2

ZiPS

76

2.96

1.200

47

69.3

3.12

1.110

9

Ours are the most optimistic with ERA. We also have the best WHIP but not by any obscene amount. And combining the two pitchers together, we are in the middle in Saves. The computers don’t realize a suspension is a strong possibility. Steamer has 40 Saves, we have 48 and ZiPS has 56.

I’d like to think nobody here turns a blind eye to abuse of any kind, but at what point do we question the gray area between black and white or refuse a man a second chance? There’s no signs of Familia being a habitual assailant and Reyes has taken action to atone for his violent mistake.

Familia is a closer, so how many innings he pitches depends on how well the Mets are doing throughout the season. Last season, Familia pitched 77.2 innings. Assuming the Mets are better this season, a full season of Familia would probably give him 80+ innings. Now, take 50 games out of the equation, and you are probably talking 60-70 innings…just like what most of the projections here show. Also, keep in mind that stats don’t tell a story. Saying someone will do well does not depend on whether you think they are a morally good person or not. Aroldis Chapman also was accused of abusing his wife, and he still did well last season. So before you start calling people sexists and misogynists, keep in mind you don’t know who these people are or how they actually feel. And the only person being ignorant in all this is you, good sir. Think before you post next time.

Based on the most upper estimates both deductions are quite reasonable. We’ll have to wait and see since right now MLB is getting their money’s worth out of him right now in the WBC- which also wouldn’t surprise me if that was in some way factored into the decision… after all this is the business of baseball.

Of the 105 National League relief pitchers that pitched at least 30 innings last year, Familia was ranked fifth and Reed was ranked second in FIP. In HR/9 , Familia was #2 and Reed was 8th. The two of them kept the ball in the park and avoided those demoralizing late inning homeruns. Familia had a great season but Reed had an even better one than Familia. Reed also had a K/9 of 10.55 and the 8th best WHIP at 0.94 compared to Familia’s very good K/9 of 9.37 and a WHIP of 1.21. Addison, I know your aim is true. This is a great one two punch and I am not suggesting in any way to change their roles.What I am suggesting is that these two should usually avoid pitching in non save situations so that they don’t fatigue their arms come September. Familia’s pending suspension should alleviate the fatigue problem this year for him. I think it would be unrealistic for them to duplicate their 2016 results but they both should still be an excellent tandem in 2017.
Familia: 64 INN, 2.20 ERA,1.13 WHIP, 47* Saves
*(because more ops in a 95 win season)
Reed: 77 INN, 2.67 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 10 Saves

Quite a lively discussion. Not exactly the most accurate or correct discussion on all fronts but at least it is taking place in some form. This matter goes beyond baseball and will in-fact get its due beyond simply guessing stats. When real life coincides with sports it’s bound to be uncomfortable.