I don't have to speak about the success Rafa has on the surface and is said to be the king of clay. He won the title last year, starting a little bit slowly against Edmund, winning in three sets, after he got the first with bagel then Edmund just totally changed his performance and attacked Rafa from the baseline with long and powerful shots, which got Rafa out of his comfortable zone and had to show his best to win. Then Rafa was astonishingly good and won all of the matches in straight sets against Schwartzman, Goffin and Ramos. I don't think Bedene is a player who can be equal to Nadal from the baseline and to play with a few mistakes like Edmund did last year when the British was close to eliminate Rafa in the start.

Rafa doesn't have official ATP matches since Australian open, when he was eliminated by Cilic in the QFs after he got a hip problem and retired in the fifth set. He played some matches in Davis cup two weeks ago and was really impressive against Kohlschreiber and Alex Zverev winning in straight sets. I think he is okay now and absolutely ready for the clay season looking for another ATP 1000 title. Bedene has much more matches, playing really good in Buenos Aires, reaching the final against Thiem, but lost it 6:2 6:4. His results on clay are much better this season, but come on, it's not serious to compare players he faced like Jesely, Ramos, Schwartzman, Busta, Fognini, even Thiem with Rafa Nadal. The difference is too big and the titles they have on clay speak about it.

Both players have only one match in 2016 here in Monte Carlo and Rafa won it 6:3 6:3. I expect Rafa to start confidently with a straight set win, that's the reason I choose under 18.5 games here maybe with similar result like in their previous match. Bedene will be under high pressure from the start, cause Rafa surely wants to show he's is okay and is ready for another successful clay season combined with a lot of titles.