Monday, November 14, 2011

I was reading Jim ONeill's weekly analysis (Chairman of GSAM) and enjoyed his putting in perspective the European crisis:

"... in 2011, the change in China’s nominal GDP in US$
will be the equivalent of creating three new Greek economies. In the context of
the above question and what is important this week, I realized that, along with
the other three BRIC nations, the probable change in the US$ value of their
combined GDP in 2012 is likely to be close to $2 trillion. They will
effectively create the equivalent of another Italy.

This is what the BRIC countries can do to help the
world, and especially troubled Europe, way more than any specific steps to
invest in European beleaguered bonds."

No wonder people get so excited with emerging markets' potential. This is truly where economic growth is nowadays, both in percentage and absolute values, and is / will be one of the key macro trends for years to come.

Sunday, November 6, 2011

Yesterday I watched the Senna documentary on TV. I loved it and hope it gets an Oscar nomination (and wins the prize of course!).

Senna was one of my childhood heroes and probably Brazil's most beloved sporting hero (maybe even more than Pelé). In my family, just like many others in Brazil, it was a tradition to watch the F1 gran-prix on Sundays. The European races would usually start around 11am-12 and my uncles and cousins would come to my house and watch the race while preparing Sunday lunch. There so many good memories of Senna, Nelson Piquet and their battles against Prost, Mansell and others. Great times for F1!

Senna's death is similar to JFK's death for Americans, in the sense that every Brazilian remembers what they were doing upon hearing the news. I was watching the race live and remember my mother crying and everyone being really sad when we realized what had happened.

In a country lacking role models it is very emotional to revisit Senna's trajectory all over again. In the documentary they ask Senna about his best sporting memory and he mentions his first kart races in Europe, when it wasn't about the money or the politics, just pure driving.

It is sad but I guess this is how many things work nowadays. Maybe I'm getting old and sentimental but I feel that things were more about emotions and getting things done rather than today. Now it is all about money, internal politics, and people feeling entitled for everything without willing to put in the hard work needed to get things.

Anyway, I hope you all watch the movie. (Americans will need subtitles to truly enjoy it.)

Thursday, November 3, 2011

I was reading the blog of my colleague Simon Taylor here at Judge and he posted the link of a spoof video by MBAs in Columbia on how one of the (untold) reasons of doing an MBA maybe to find a rich husband.

Regardless of whether this is true or not, I'm amazed by the number of marriages that year after year. In my PhD cohort of 18 people, we had 2 marriages!

If politicians had agreed two years ago - when the size of the problem was already know - to do the same things proposed last week, I'm sure we wouldn't be in the terrible mess we are now: no need to keep bleeding for 2 months with the Greek referendum, less austerity measures needed, smaller bail-out size, etc...

Politicians are not on average known for being good, but the currently crop of leaders is really depressing to watch...

Tuesday, October 11, 2011

I've just read on the FT that John Paulson (who made billions betting on falling US housing market prices in 2008) has warned of 25% redemptions in his $30bi AUM fund, following losses of more than 40% so far this year.

My MSc. dissertation was on whether technical analysis can generate abnormal returns or it is onlu due to "luck"- i.e. out of many possible combinations you are bound to find one that will have excellent results.

I usually use Warren Buffet as an example during my classes on market efficiency but maybe Paulson will be interesting as well. Maybe his profits back in 2008 were simply luck and shouldn't be expected to persist in the future?

Monday, July 18, 2011

It's been ages since I posted anything. Moving to a new job in a new country while still trying to catchup with my debt to my co-authors is not easy! My apologies to all. Once I'm settled (moving date is August 1st) I hope to get back on track.

More and more I believe that all MBAs should have a history-cum-law course. It would probably overlap a lot with Ethics and maybe Strategy courses but I am sometimes amazed by the lack of historical knowledge on previous crises and the inner workings of a modern corporation.

"The committee then considered objective measures of Mr Sheen’s performance. These were impressive: Mr Sheen’s trading had contributed tens of millions of pounds to the bank’s bottom line over the previous year.

At this point the committee was minded to view Mr Sheen’s transgressions as a private matter, and not one over which it behoved HotShots Bank to take an excessively paternalistic line.It was also noted that Mr Sheen, a self-pronounced “total freakin’ rock star from Mars” appeared to regard himself as very mobile. If not paid a bonus in line with his compensation expectations, he would surely quit."

Friday, February 4, 2011

I will remember that I didn't make the world and that it doesn't satisfy my equations.

Though I will use models boldly to estimate value, I will not be overly impressed by mathematics.

I will never sacrifice reality for elegance without explaining why I have done so. Nor will I give the people who use my model false comfort about its accuracy. Instead, I will make explicit its assumptions and oversights.

I understand that my work may have enormous effects on society and the economy, many of them beyond my comprehension.

It is so easy to get lost in the mathematics of models that we often see papers completely out of touch with reality...

Tuesday, January 4, 2011

Ipaidabribe.com is a not-for-profit website in India asks for people to anonymously reportany bribes they had to pay when dealing with the government. This is a cool way to guide anti-corruption efforts and see which part of the government should be better controlled.