Kenyan polls re-enact history’s quirkiness

The two leading contenders for the Kenyan presidency are Uhuru Kenyatta and Raila Odinga, sons of Kenya’s two leading nationalists, Jomo Kenyatta and Oginga Odinga. The two equally eminent children have not only followed in the footsteps of their late fathers, they have also sustained the rivalry between their fathers that hallmarked the turbulent post-independence history of their country. But much more quirkily, and as if history sometimes likes to mock its great statesmen, it is easy to imagine how things could have turned out differently had Kenyatta senior and Odinga senior taken a different fork in the road in the mid and late 1950s.

By yesterday, Uhuru Kenyatta, 51, of The National Alliance (TNA) was leading Raila Odinga, 68, of the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) in vote count by as much as 12 percentage points after Monday’s presidential election. Before the end of today or tomorrow, it is expected that the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC) would have tallied all the votes and announced the final results. Analysis of the tally so far does not fully indicate that Kenyatta, who is currently a Deputy Prime Minister, will win. This is because early returns have come from Kenyatta’s Kikuyu and allied strongholds while Odinga’s Luo and allied strongholds have been slower in reporting returns. Odinga is Prime Minister. Of the eight contestants for the presidency, the winner must win more than 50 percent of the votes to avoid a runoff.

If Kenyatta wins, he and his running mate, William Ruto, will spend most of their time in office facing trial at The Hague for crimes against humanity as a result of their indictment by the International Criminal Court (ICC) following the 2007 polls in which more than 1000 people were killed. Kenyatta and Ruto are accused of instigating the violence that followed that year’s disputed election. Indeed, their victory would mark the first time anyone accused of crimes against humanity had been voted into office in spite of ICC indictment. In a veiled attempt to influence the direction of voting on Monday, a few Western nations sent out signals that they would be loth to interact with Kenyatta should he emerge winner today. It remains to be seen what part those subtle hints would play in the election.

But the real quirky part of the election and rivalry between the two sons of eminent Kenyan leaders is how the pre-independence politics of the country continues to shape the current political and electoral struggles between the two families. A few years before independence, Kenya’s British colonial rulers indicated very strongly they were reluctant to hand over power to radicals or anyone associated with the Mau Mau rebellion. Jomo Kenyatta had been arrested as one of the famous Kapenguria Six in 1952 at the onset of the rebellion. After a six-month trial, the six – Bildad Kagia, Fred Kubai, Paul Ngei, et al – were jailed for leading or sympathising with the Mau Mau. But rather than offer himself to be propped up by the British, Oginga Odinga remained faithful to Kenyatta and held the fort for him until he was released in 1961.

Not only was Odinga, an engineer, also charismatic and highly respected, he was even much truer to the sentiments that motivated the leaders of the Mau Mau rebellion, some of whom were Dedan Kimathi and Waruhiu Itote a.k.a. General China. Indeed, after independence, Kenyatta all but scorned the leaders of the Mau Mau.

It is remarkable how history could have turned out differently had Oginga Odinga offered to be the liberal face of Kenya sought by the British between 1957 and 1961. Had he befriended the Mau Mau leaders who survived, worked the crowd as deftly as he evoked reverence from the Luo, and exploited his friendship with Tom Mboya, a fellow Luo like Barack Obama’s father, he would have stood a fair chance of replacing Jomo Kenyatta and becoming the first president of independent Kenya. He would have been aided by the fact that Kenya is an ethnic pastiche, with no tribe dominating the others. The kikuyu, the most populous ethnic group, are only 22 percent, while the Luo, Lubya and Kalenjin are 13, 14 and 12 percent respectively. But Odinga kept his principles, never became president in spite of all his subsequent efforts, and his son has struggled against even greater odds to be relevant. The younger Odinga is best placed to win today, for he is respected domestically and internationally, but he faces tough, almost insurmountable hurdles. However, it remains to be seen whether the principles his father kept during decolonisation would prove to be an enduring jinx on the family or just a mere hiatus.