The thing to remember in this sim, as opposed to real life, is that there are no hot or cold players; everything is based on a statistical model. If Player X is underperforming for you and there is no obvious reason (for example, you find yourself in a league where everybody chose the Astrodome and you have a power hitting team) the Waiver Wire is rarely a cure - since I assume that's the crux of your question. If you believe your draft strategy was sound and there are no obvious reasons to prove otherwise, look at the player you're thinking of dropping as opposed to the guy you want to pick up and ask yourself this: whay didn't I draft him on the first place?

Posted by The_Swamp on 1/19/2013 6:49:00 AM (view original):How many games pass before you "accurately" estimate that your team will stay a contender, or fall out of it?

This is exceptionally difficult to exactly calculate and a 6 week course in standard deviation is not why you came to this site. There is a great site that calculates the exact odds of making the playoffs for all major league teams updated for each team as a season progresses, that doesn't give an answer to your question but would show you how it's done and also the complexity of your question.........It's called...... SPORTSCLUBSTATS.com

I only play in progs. As a rule of thumb, I like to see each pitcher in my rotation have 3 or 4 outings before I start to gauge if he's living up to his stats. As far as hitting, once I've played every team in my league twice I generally have a clear picture of what to expect. That gets you to around 40 games into the schedule, and you should have some idea of your team's competitiveness. But if you can commit, by the All-Star break the stats have usually shaken out the pretenders... 162 games makes for a long season.

I've had a sneaking hunch for a while that players are randomly juiced or tranquilized by small bit. It would help explain variances in stats beyond just park factors in leagues where everyone has a Babe or two, and why some players still don't perform after a trade.

A lot of people who don't understand statistics very well have been convinced of that very thing, some of them very good owners, for almost as long as this site has existed. Longer than I've been here.

Posted by dahsdebater on 1/25/2013 3:08:00 PM (view original):A lot of people who don't understand statistics very well have been convinced of that very thing, some of them very good owners, for almost as long as this site has existed. Longer than I've been here.

Believing in randomly juiced or tranquilized as he stated doesn't necessarily suggest that he doesn't understand statistics very well...sounds like he believes in some player seasons get some kind of modified enhancement. It's not right to imply that he doesn't understand statistics...

Posted by dahsdebater on 1/25/2013 3:08:00 PM (view original):A lot of people who don't understand statistics very well have been convinced of that very thing, some of them very good owners, for almost as long as this site has existed. Longer than I've been here.

Dahsdebator,

I have played 119 seasons compared to your 203 or only %58.6 of your total. In those seasons I have compiled a .551 winning percentage, which I believe is better than your .534. And I have won 15 Championships to your 12

I under.stand those statistics and it means I understand the game better than you.

You should understand WIS is a game and there isn't a covenant anywhere stating the managers of it can't add wild cards to make the game more interesting.

I would not read too much into winning percentage and playoff performance as a measure of ability; there are just too many variables. It would be like saying Yale is a better football team than LSU, because Yale has won 13 Ivy League titles while LSU has won only 11 SEC titles (and I'm not saying any particular owner is Yale).

he made his point though...that is, he understands the game, understands statistics and how WIS works...he is merely saying that he believes what I have heard many others voice on these forums that there is a "wild card" element injected into the particular player S/N that account for anomalies. He is defending himself from criticism from the debater that is simply unfounded.

I wasn't taking sides in the argument, just pointing out a logical fallacy. I agree that dahsdebater's post can be construed as a bit pointed.

On the broader issue, I look at it this way. Either WIS has programmed in some random element subtly to affect player performance for some of the players some of the time (when they have so many problems with programming the basic structure of the game - kudos to them, though; I could never do it), or disparities in performance are a result of statistical variations. Occam's Razor.