Rhetoric flowing out of the White House indicates the Bush administration is planning a military attack on Iran. Officials in Saudi Arabia, a close Bush ally, think the handwriting is on the wall. "George Bush's tone makes us think he has decided what he is going to do," according to Rihab Massoud, Prince Bandar ben Sultan's right-hand man.

Saudi Social Affairs Minister Abdel Mohsen Hakas told Le Figaro:

"We are getting closer and closer to a confrontation."

As Bush and Cheney try to whip us into a frenzy about the dangers Iran poses, their argument comes up short. They say Iran is developing nuclear weapons, but Mohamed ElBaradei, director of the U.N. International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), says there is "no evidence" of this. They say Iran is sending deadly weapons into Iraq to kill U.S. troops, but those devices can be manufactured in any Iraqi machine shop. Now the New York Times reports most of the foreign fighters in Iraq come, not from Iran, but from two Bush allies - Saudi Arabia and Libya. An estimated 90 percent of suicide bombings are carried out by foreign fighters. And senior U.S. military officials believe the financial support for Al Qaeda in Mesopotamia comes primarily from Saudi Arabia.

Yet the Bush/Cheney polemics about Iran continue to escalate. In light of the lack of evidence Iran is actually developing nukes, Bush equated Iranian "knowledge" to make nuclear weapons with World War III. "If you’re interested in avoiding World War III," he said recently, "it seems like you ought to be interested in preventing them from having the knowledge necessary to make a nuclear weapon." This substantially lowers the bar for a U.S. attack on Iran.

A few days after Bush warned of World War III, Cheney called Iran “the
world’s most active state sponsor of terrorism,” adding, "The Iranian
regime needs to know that if it stays on its present course, the
international community is prepared to impose serious consequences . .
. We will not allow Iran to have a nuclear weapon.” These threats are
eerily reminiscent of his rants in the run-up to the U.S. invasion of
Iraq.

In an unprecedented move, the Bush administration labeled the Iranian
Revolutionary Guard a terrorist organization. It appears the
administration applied that label in an effort to trigger language in
the 2002 Congressional authorization for the use of military force in
Iraq. That authorization says, "The President has authority under the
Constitution to take action in order to deter and prevent acts of
international terrorism against the United States."

Like Bush's invasion of Iraq, an attack on Iran would violate
international and U.S. law. The U.N. Charter prohibits the use of
military force except in self-defense or with the approval of the
Security Council. Iran, which has not attacked any country for 2,000
years, hasn't threatened to invade the United States or Israel. Rather
than protecting Israel, U.S. or Israeli military force against Iran
will endanger Israel, which would invariably suffer a retaliatory
attack.

In making its case against Iran, the administration points to Iranian
President Mahmoud Ahmedinejad's alleged comment that Israel should be
wiped off the map. But this is an erroneous translation of what he
said. According to University of Michigan professor Juan Cole and Farsi
language analysts, Ahmadinejad was quoting Ayatollah Khomeini, who said
the "regime occupying Jerusalem must vanish from the page of time."
Cole said this "does not imply military action or killing anyone at
all." Journalist Diana Johnstone points out the quote is not aimed at
the Israeli people, but at the Zionist "regime" occupying Jerusalem.
"Coming from a Muslim religious leader," Johnstone wrote, "this opinion
is doubtless based on objection to Jewish monopoly of a city considered
holy by all three of the Abramic monotheisms."

It seems significant that support for Ahmadinejad may be waning among
the real power brokers in Iran, particularly the supreme leader
Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. The Jomhouri Eslami daily in Iran, which has
close ties to Khamenei, has denounced Ahmadinejad's characterization of
those opposed to his nuclear program as traitors.

If the United States attacks Iran, the results would be catastrophic.
Three Europeans, including former French Prime Minister Michel Rocard
and Yehuda Atai, a member of the Israeli Committee for a Middle East
without Weapons of Mass Destruction, wrote in Libération, "We are being
warned about it from all sides: The United States is at the brink of
war, ready to bombard Iran.

The only thing lacking is the presidential
order." Drawing parallels with the U.S. war in Iraq, they caution, "An
attack against Iran, whatever its targets, its methods and its initial
scope, will significantly aggravate the situation, achieving similar
results, without even talking about the disastrous impact on the global
economy." They add, "It would be still worse if the insane idea of
using tactical nuclear weapons - which exist - to prevent Iran from
building, in spite of its denials, the nuclear weapons that recent IAEA
inspections have found no trace of, were implemented."

The threats against Iran appear to be politically motivated. Seymour
Hersh's extensive research has convinced him that Bush/Cheney will
invade Iran. They likely think embroiling us in Iran will ensure a GOP
victory in 2008. It will certainly make it harder for the next
President to withdraw from Iraq once we are mired in Iran.

If Hillary Clinton becomes that next President, she will likely
continue Bush's foreign policy. Clinton, who favors leaving a large
contingent of U.S. troops in Iraq, says nothing about disbanding the
huge U.S. military bases there. Clinton is also rattling the sabers in
Iran's direction. She voted to urge Bush to label the Iranian
Revolutionary Guard a terrorist organization and she, too, misquotes
Ahmadinejad about Israel.

As we go to the polls in the coming months, it is imperative we
scrutinize the candidates' positions on Iraq and Iran. The security of
the United States, as well as the Middle East, is hanging in the
balance.

Marjorie Cohn is a professor at Thomas Jefferson School of Law and the
President of the National Lawyers Guild. She is the author of "Cowboy
Republic: Six Ways the Bush Gang Has Defied the Law." Her columns are
archived at www.marjoriecohn.com.

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