Prospectus Hit List for May 22

Hit List for May 21
Hit List for May 23Hit List updates are published Monday, Wednesday, and Friday, starting April 2, 2014. Data presented here is based on games through the day prior to publication.Teams are ordered based on Adjusted Hit List Factor, a computer generated number, and the author isn't responsible for the order of the teams.

20

22

17.0

15.6

16.4

.411

.391

0.8%

0.4%

1.2%

0.0%

-0.8%

If the Pirates were a choose-your-own-adventure book, all the possible options would still lead to losing 2-1.

6

17

25

17.9

17.7

17.3

.417

.398

6.7%

11.8%

18.5%

-3.9%

-16.5%

You have to applaud Ron Roenicke for putting Corey Hart in the lead-off spot. Hart isn't much of an on-base threat and his power will be wasted... oh wait, I'm making the other side of that argument.

7

22

20

17.7

17.9

18.2

.451

.432

1.6%

7.9%

9.4%

-1.6%

-7.1%

Kirk Nieuwenhuis got a pinch-hit single in the top of the eighth and dropped a fly ball for a three base error in the bottom of the eighth. This refutes the notion that life is fair.

8

19

24

19.3

19.8

20.2

.456

.436

8.3%

10.2%

18.5%

-4.7%

2.4%

Aaron Hill (.235/.320.392) must play some stellar defense, because otherwise, yuck. At least they didn't sign him to a two-year... oh. Oops.

9

19

23

21.8

19.7

20.1

.480

.460

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

-0.4%

-0.4%

The Astros are one of only three teams without a win in extra innings. No overtime pay, no overtime wins, capiche?

10

17

24

18.8

18.4

18.7

.444

.464

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

-0.4%

-0.8%

Jeff Francoeur batted five times. He saw 14 pitches and swung at seven. For a guy who swings at 54 percent of all the pitches he sees, that counts as restraint.

11

18

25

20.1

20.0

19.8

.452

.472

1.6%

24.8%

26.4%

-5.1%

-12.2%

Now that Vernon Wells is hurt, he is no longer a walking billboard for addition by subtraction. He's a sitting one.

12

22

21

19.9

17.9

18.4

.455

.475

0.0%

1.6%

1.6%

0.0%

0.8%

A's pitchers have struck out the second-fewest hitters, but if they try to catch the Twins in this category, they'll strike out there.

13

22

19

20.9

19.0

19.6

.497

.477

24.4%

34.6%

59.1%

11.0%

15.0%

The Reds are a game back in the Central primarily because the Cardinals are playing lousy baseball while the Reds are treading water. Further proof that there's just no substitute for the people above you being lousy.

14

20

24

21.2

19.9

20.0

.461

.481

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Felix Hernandez out-dueled Yu Darvish. Back in 2008, he did the same to Daisuke Matsuzaka. Felx Hernandez obviously has something against... hype.

15

21

22

21.8

23.2

22.3

.514

.494

11.4%

23.2%

34.6%

-2.0%

1.2%

Perhaps one of the biggest surprises in the game is that Juan Pierre is in the game.

16

23

19

21.5

21.3

20.8

.516

.496

15.7%

33.9%

49.6%

3.9%

13.4%

Mark Buehrle is bacon ice cream. He shouldn't be very good, but he is.

17

20

21

20.0

19.1

19.2

.477

.497

39.0%

15.7%

54.7%

3.1%

-4.7%

Max Scherzer leads the majors with more than 11.5 strikeouts per nine innings. For context, that's almost as many as Adam Dunn.

18

22

20

20.6

22.8

22.1

.521

.501

17.7%

14.2%

31.9%

-0.4%

-3.9%

With the .294/.358/.456 Buster Posey is hitting, isn't he due to get traded or hurt?

19

21

21

21.1

21.3

21.1

.503

.523

35.4%

28.3%

63.8%

-5.9%

-24.0%

If Hiroki Kuroda keeps giving up homers at this rate he may reach 40. Last year only Bronson Arroyo gave up that many. If anyone sees Kuroda practicing Bush, break his guitar.

20

21

21

22.0

22.7

23.3

.530

.550

13.8%

12.2%

26.0%

-5.5%

4.7%

Alexei Ramirez leads the league in a category. It's outs made.

21

26

17

25.3

24.2

23.4

.574

.555

68.1%

18.1%

86.2%

-1.6%

2.8%

In some odd way, that Mike Minor gave up back-to-back-to-back home runs and yet still managed to survive for six innings is impressive.

22

23

18

20.1

22.2

22.4

.535

.555

47.2%

15.7%

63.0%

8.7%

9.8%

The Indians are 18th in batting average, but fourth in OBP. Why? 184 walks, 21 more than second-place Tampa and 94 more than last-place Pittsburgh.

23

21

21

22.8

23.0

23.2

.536

.556

23.6%

31.9%

55.5%

10.6%

10.2%

The Red Sox have both bequeathed the most inherited runners in baseball and allowed the most inherited runners to score. It's a symbiotic relationship. I'll kick you in the groin and you kick me in the face.

24

27

16

22.8

21.3

21.8

.540

.560

8.7%

22.8%

31.5%

-3.9%

14.6%

Lament the loss all you want, but if two months ago someone on the street offered Orioles fans the best record in the American League they'd have punched the longhaired weirdo.

25

25

18

22.6

23.2

23.9

.551

.570

28.3%

34.6%

63.0%

-2.8%

-4.3%

Jose Molina's idea: apply his pitch-framing skills to hitting by subtly kicking the glove of the catcher just as the ball is coming!

26

25

17

23.4

26.9

25.7

.601

.581

3.1%

15.4%

18.5%

-2.0%

-9.1%

How good is Gio Gonzalez at fooling hitters? Yesterday he replaced Hunter Pence's turkey sandwich with a whoopee cushion. Pence chewed that sandwich for three hours.

27

24

19

25.6

23.9

23.6

.565

.584

3.9%

10.6%

14.6%

1.2%

5.1%

In six innings, Kyle Drabek walked six, threw three wild pitches, and made an error on a dropped popup. That's called a quantity start.

28

23

19

26.9

27.6

26.4

.618

.599

68.1%

19.3%

87.4%

-0.8%

-1.2%

The Cardinals' biggest losing streak in April was two games, which they did twice. In May it was four in a row twice and three once. So much for symmetry.

29

29

13

26.7

27.1

26.7

.652

.633

72.4%

10.2%

82.7%

3.9%

6.7%

The Dodgers lead the league with 29 sacrifice bunts.

30

26

17

29.4

30.9

30.6

.680

.697

98.4%

1.6%

100.0%

0.0%

0.8%

Yu Darvish threw 96 pitches and walked six in just four innings, for his first bad start in the majors. I hope someone remembered to give him the game ball.

Regarding your Red Sox comment, it surprises me not at all. While it's obviously directly related to who's on the mound, I can't help but also lay it on Bobby V's doorstep. You know, "slumping manager" leaving unfamiliar starters in too long and related cascades. I'd ask if those rates have improved over the past ten games, but a) I GUESS I can look it up myself, and b) given the improved results I'm not gonna look it up and instead just assume that W's follow when fewer inherited runners score. Now cue the Benny Hill.

I second bgleason - great work on this column. Whenever a new one appears it's the first thing I check.

Thanks for the kind words. Knowing people enjoy it makes the effort worth while. I do appreciate it.

As for Bobby V, yeah, he's left a few guys out to dry this year. I think it's two things. First, he was trying to wring more innings out of the rotation during the first month when the bullpen was a flaming mess. Second, I think, like you alluded to, he's learning on the job a bit. Also, sometimes you leave a guy out there, he gets the outs, and you look good. Other times you leave him out there and he continues the blow up and you look bad. Valentine had a run where the second one kept happening for a while. Part bad luck, and part bad design there, I think.