Update about the state of the Af-Pak war; my forecast was wrong

Source: My forecast last August about the course of the Af-Pak War was wrong. The reason why reveals much about our wars, about America, and the path to reform.

In September and October of last year a public debate erupted over the purpose of the Af-Pak War, the first since Operation Enduring Freedom began in October 2001. Appropriately, the primary forum was the blog of Andrew Exum (Captain, US Army, retired; Wikipedia) the website of the Center for a New American Security (started 2007, Wikipedia) — which rapidly rose to well-founded prominence as the #1 non-governmental organization producing propaganda for the war. The debate quickly expanded across the Internet. Among those offering reasons for waging the war:

Astonishing both sides, the war’s advocates were routed. Unable to find factual support for strategic benefits, they fell back to lies (preventing another 9-11) and odd claims (helping Afghanistan’s women and preventing an India-Pakistan atomic war) — or giving muted reasons for continuing the war but radically changing our tactics (an effective way to remaining comfortably pro-war while escaping blame if it turns out poorly). The debate slowly dribbled out in late 2009. At the end of this are links to posts providing a blow-by-blow account.

The war’s advocates could state no clear strategic benefit to the US for the war.

This debate would mark the beginning of the end to our war in Afghanistan.

The first proved correct. The second was not only wrong, but foolishly naive. The reasons for the war ranged from sophistry to outright lies. The specious basis of the war mattered not at all. The war continued and expanded.

The source of America’s problems

The real source of America’s problems: us, its people. Too bleak a prospect, we adopt the mantra “it’s not our fault” — our response to all bad news. It’s the fault of the flaws in the Constitution, capitalism, the rich, the poor, the left, the right, foreigners, Islamic fundamentalists, christian fundamentalists, effete elites, and the ignorant masses.

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