SPECIAL COMMISSION COLLEGE MEETING TODAY — ON PORTUGUESE BUDGET: The Commission accuses Portugal of “serious non-compliance” with the EU’s budget rules, and after giving the new government three months to sort it out, things are coming to a head in an extraordinary meeting of European commissioners today.

Portugal yesterday adopted its budget without waiting for Commission approval. Now, if the budget is rejected in Brussels “it would mark the first time a eurozone government has had its spending plan vetoed.” Some suspect that a small country (Portugal) is once again being targeted not only on the merits of its own problems but to make a point to a bigger country (Italy) with similar issues that the EU dare not touch directly. http://on.ft.com/23MBLWU

SYRIA LATEST — ANOTHER 70,000 REFUGEES EN ROUTE TO TURKEY: Following intensified aerial bombing around Aleppo, Turkish Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoğlu warns of a new influx, as donor nations pledged around €10 billion in humanitarian aid to those in Syria. http://reut.rs/20tAvsw

RUSSIA — A PUTIN DISSIDENT IN WINTER: Francesca Ebel interviews Alexei Navalny, once considered a replacement to Vladimir Putin. “Putin’s government has no boundaries and will stop at nothing. I know this but I’m not afraid.” http://politi.co/1VSUt9q

MIGRATION — ECONOMIST COVER ON ‘HOW TO MANAGE THE MIGRANT CRISIS’: The Economist’s prescription largely matches the European Commission’s plans, but includes more pressure on countries like Greece and Italy to lessen pressure on Germany. “Germany and Sweden have been left to cope alone. Today their willingness to do so is exhausted. Unless Europe soon restores order, political pressure will force Mrs. Merkel to clamp down unilaterally, starting a wave of border closures…”

“The divisive forces of right-wing nationalism have already taken hold in parts of eastern Europe. If they spread westward into Germany, France and Italy then the EU could tear itself apart … Many economic migrants with no claim to asylum have found a place in the queue by lying about where they came from … Creating a well-regulated system requires three steps…” http://econ.st/1T1sy9f

EU-LAND PROBLEMS 1 — INTERPRETERS DRIVEN CRAZY: Klaus Welle, the European Parliament’s chief civil servant, has warned MEPs to speak slowly and in their native language … so life is easier for interpreters. In Parliament bureaucracy’s view the goal is not happy MEPs or successful outcomes, but the comfort of the interpreters. Peter Teffer has more. http://bit.ly/1SvxqUz

EU-LAND PROBLEMS 2 — JUNCKER QUALITY TIME: So you’re the head of a marginalized and minor EU institution, and you think you’ve finally cut through to the big cheese Jean-Claude Juncker, to promote Europe’s “social pillar,” free from pesky advisers and distractions like Brexit. And what does the President ask you about? Well, if you’re the head of the European Economic and Social Committee, Juncker asks you about your tie and if you want a coffee. 46 seconds of Juncker diplomacy here, VIDEO: http://bit.ly/1PUHhfV

IRELAND — LATEST ELECTION POLL: Ireland’s ruling coalition got bad news on the first official day of electioneering, with the party of Prime Minister Enda Kenny, Fine Gael, at 28 percent in the latest poll, and its governing partner Labour at a paltry 7 percent. As usual, a coalition government is likely to be needed. Expect Portuguese-style coalition drama after the February 26 poll. http://bit.ly/1VQPLsS

POLAND — WARSAW WANTS TO BFF CAMERON: David Cameron’s visit to Warsaw on Friday is about more than the British prime minister hunting for support ahead of a Brexit referendum, writes Jan Cienski. It’s also a way for Poland to show it still matters in the EU. http://politi.co/23MzlHG

POLAND — PLANE CRASH INVESTIGATION OFFICIALLY LAUNCHED: The power behind the Law and Justice government throne, Jarosław Kaczyński, is getting his way again, having long insisted that the 2010 plane crash in Russia in which his brother died was not an accident. Now Defense Minister Antoni Macierewicz said, “Basic facts and information that fundamentally change our view of what happened were hidden.” http://politi.co/1PE66AK

**A message from EPP Group: Fed up with politicians using Europe as a scapegoat? Join us here.**

WHAT BERLIN IS READING:

1) About Merkel’s tumbling poll numbers: The Chancellor’s approval rating fell in a new poll, as did support for her conservatives, while the anti-immigrant Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) made gains. In the Infratest Dimap poll 46 percent of respondents said they were satisfied with Merkel’s performance — down from 75 percent in April 2015. http://politi.co/1PXWlzB

2) About the arrest of members of a suspected ISIS groupin Berlin, Lower Saxony and North Rhine-Westphalia, who may have been planning to attack Alexanderplatz. Suddeutsche Zeitung | BILD

3) About Horst Seehofer touring Moscow.Der Spiegel calls it a “wrong signal” as the sole purpose of this visit was “pictures” with the main beneficiary being Putin, while Poland’s Gazeta Wyborcza sees only political motivations for the visit: “This trip is part of the Bavaria-Berlin dispute about the admission of refugees … [Seehofer] went to Moscow to display his discontent with the coalition partner.” FAZ analyzes Russia’s economic and political state, predicting an “upcoming thunderstorm.”

WHAT BERLIN IS NOT READING: Stories about Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier’s visit to Riad, Saudi Arabia — there are very few. Spiegel Online is an exception: http://bit.ly/1X7cbr3

WORTH THE LOOK — A DUTCH MAYOR ON THE ASYLUM REALITY IN HIS TOWN: Hans Janssen, the mayor of Oisterwijk, a town that has housed an asylum-seeker and refugee center for 20 years, has an impressive effort here at explaining the many angles to supporting asylum-seekers. “Rental prices go up, the labor market is distorted and so on. All that easily leads to social tensions among refugees, between refugees and host communities, and within host communities … [Local governments] lack the necessary financial or human resources, or humanitarian organizations and NGOs basically ignore them.” http://adobe.ly/1K1S5N1

BREXIT LATEST…

NEW POLL GIVES ‘OUT’ CAMPAIGN ITS BIGGEST LEAD YET: The YouGov survey found that 45 percent of people will vote to leave the EU compared with 36 percent who want to remain. 19 percent are undecided or won’t vote. http://thetim.es/1mhlIhU

CAMERON ‘FINALLY’ ACCEPTS EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT INVITE: He will not actually address all MEPs, but Cameronwill speak to party group leaders at the European Parliament on February 16, two days before EU leaders will discuss his proposals for reformed U.K. membership of the EU at a summit. http://politi.co/1QJJIoD

FIRST ‘SHERPA’ MEETING TODAY IN BRUSSELS TO PUSH DEAL FORWARD: It’s not clear why a special process is needed to finalize a deal on the U.K. negotiation. Do national capitals and the Commission not trust the regular ambassadors? It can’t be a sop to MEPs otherwise excluded from the negotiations — because they’re not invited either. Secretary General Klaus Welle, for example, rather than MEPs will represent the Parliament.

MUST READ ARTICLE:John Rentoul in the Independent writes “[Boris] Johnson’s game is as transparent as the Westminster bubble: he is posing for the cameras as the more Eurosceptic candidate for the Conservative succession (when compared with George Osborne), but he doesn’t want to lead the Leave campaign because he thinks it is going to lose. The same goes for Theresa May, the Home Secretary, who issued a statement on Tuesday saying the proposals were the ‘basis for a deal’. If you want to understand the significance of this week’s deal, listen to the thundering hooves of the deserting big beasts rather than to the shrill wailing of the anti-EU press.” http://ind.pn/1PE58o4

SPAIN — SOCIALISTS MEET WITH CONSERVATIVES TO WRANGLE SUPPORT: El Mundo reports that the chiefs of staff of PSOE (of prime ministerial candidate Pedro Sánchez) and PP (current Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy) met to discuss options including each party abstaining in Parliament to allow the leader of the other party to take the prime ministership with the support of Ciudadanos. No agreement was reached. http://bit.ly/1QJO6E6

BELGIUM — A COLD WAR IN THE CLASSROOM: Laurens Cerulus writes on Belgium’s schools as a symbol for how the country has been pulled apart for half a century. http://politi.co/1L2al3T

TELECOMS — COMMISSION OPPOSES UK MOBILE MERGER: The European Commission has joined the U.K. government in opposing a U.K. merger between mobile operators Three and O2, unless the companies make more concessions to preserve competition. Hutchison, which owns Three, yesterday issued a press release setting out proposals to remedy the Commission’s concerns, such as a price freeze to protect consumers, but the Commission’s mind was already made up. Check the fine print on this one. For example, whereas Hutchinson promised not to raise prices for five years, they were making that offer in a sector where technical advances mean the price per minute of calls or megabyte of data is continually dropping … meaning a price freeze is not necessarily a benefit to consumers. http://on.ft.com/1QJH568

DIESELGATE — A ROYAL FLIP-FLOP: Ségolène Royal can’t make up her mind. The French environment and ecology minister said yesterday that France has always erred on the side of keeping the “highest standards” on car emissions, and criticized the European Parliament for failing to veto new testing standards for car emissions. “It is clear that the majority of Parliament has decided not to go in the right direction,” she said. Except that France actually signed off on these standards when EU countries agreed in October. The Netherlands was alone in voting against. Royal’s statement: http://bit.ly/1NSxIMU

ENERGY AND TRANSPORT — OBAMA PROPOSES $10 PER BARREL OIL TAX: “The president will propose more than $300 billion worth of investments over the next decade in mass transit, high-speed rail, self-driving cars, and other transportation approaches designed to reduce carbon emissions and congestion … There is no real chance that the Republican-controlled Congress will embrace Obama’s grand vision of climate-friendly mobility in an election year … His aides acknowledge it’s mostly an effort to jump-start a conversation about the future of transportation. http://politi.co/20KmHXh

TRANSPORT — STATE OF AIRPORTS IN EUROPE: Airports Council International Europe will issue a report this morning that includes news that Istanbul-Atatürk airport is now the third busiest airport in Europe — surpassing Frankfurt. Athens and Dublin airports grew fastest in 2015, with nearly 20 percent growth in traffic.

TRANSPORT — LOOK AHEAD IN 2016 FROM COMMISSIONER BULC: Bulc sat down yesterday with transport bloggers to outline the Commission’s big focus on reporting and limiting carbon emissions in 2016. Some examples: Aviation emissions are forecast to increase dramatically, and the EU will this year push to adopt the first CO2 standards for aircraft. On the roads, the Commissioner wants more polluter-pays and user-pays pricing to fund infrastructure and level the playing field between road and rail transport. At sea, the EU will support the International Maritime Organisation, to adopt a mandatory global system to report emissions from ships.

UKRAINE — GOVERNMENT TRIES TO UNITE AFTER RESIGNATIONS: Three Ukrainian cabinet members — the health, agriculture and infrastructure ministers, who previously tendered their resignations — said they would continue to work in the cabinet. The economy minister has not reversed his decision to resign. http://reut.rs/23MvxX8

FGM CAMPAIGN DAY TOMORROW: The 125 million women estimated to have been subject to Female Genital Mutilation (500,000 in Europe) is 70 million higher than previously thought, according to a new report, and will be a focus of campaigners and governments tomorrow. The European Commission will join activists in outlining that FGM is a crime and working to protect not only women abroad but also in asylum centers in Europe. Women in Indonesia, Egypt and Ethiopia account for half of all FGM victims worldwide. http://bit.ly/1PW5zGi

US 2016 — CRUZING TO VICTORY, OR CRUZING FOR A BRUISING? The Economist looks at what life would be like in a Cruz-led Republican party. http://econ.st/1Pmocnq

REPUBLICAN SECRETARIES OF STATE DRAWN INTO CLINTON EMAIL PROBE: Josh Gerstein and Rachael Bade report that the FBI is now looking into at least 10 emails sent to Colin Powell’s and Condoleezza Rice’s private email accounts when they served as secretary of state, matching concerns about Hillary Clinton’s use of private email. “The FBI has come to us,” Powell said without elaborating. http://politi.co/1PlqJOy

SENATE DEMOCRATS GO ON ATTACK AGAINST SANDERS: Here’s a taste of how elected Democrats are starting to hit back against Bernie Sanders’ claims that Hillary Clinton is not progressive enough. “Hillary’s a progressive in the way she views the issues every day,” said liberal Sen. Barbara Boxer (D-Calif.). “Bernie’s a Democrat some days. And that’s a fact with evidence.” http://politi.co/1QgNIdE

WONK CORNER: Most-downloaded, highest-rated new reports on thewonk.eu this week:

APPOINTED: EUobserver has appointed Eric Maurice, a former editor-in-chief of presseurop, as new editor-in-chief and Meg Chang as head of operations. Passing over the reins is Lisbeth Kirk, the service’s founder. The American Chamber of Commerce in France has elected Robert Vassoyan, president of Cisco France, as its president.

BIRTHDAYS: Séamus Conboy, who heads up the Brussels office of Irish lobby firm Red Flag, is 30 today. Afzal Khan MEP, the Socialists and Democrats (S&D) special representative to Muslim communities, Edelman’s Caroline Giraud and the European Commission’s Giulio Taufer also celebrate, as do Mikuláš Dzurinda, former prime minister of Slovakia and current Martens Centre President, Burson-Marsteller’s David O’Leary.

**A message from EPP Group: Two years after the start of the EU’s long-term budget (2014-2020), new crises and priorities have emerged, pushing the current Multiannual Financial Framework (MFF) to its limits. The European Commission is to present a review, which is an assessment and evaluation of the functioning of the MFF, before the end of 2016. It will be accompanied by a revision, which is a legislative proposal to modify the MFF regulation. The EPP Group adopted this week a position paper that identifies the legal framework and political context of the MFF mid-term review and revision. It also sets out our priorities for the second half of the MFF period: research and infrastructure investment for growth and jobs, funding of EFSI and continuation of Youth Employment Initiative to tackle youth unemployment, addressing the migration and refugee crisis as well as ensuring internal security. Find out more on the future EU budget.**