Gus Katsaros

View from the Corners

A Goaltending Comparison

In the upcoming three or so months, the carousel will be at full throttle, alternating netminders in creases across the league.

I wondered if there were any parallels to be learned from the previous lockout. In the run up to finding very little to learn from that particular season, it seems the current day trend may have been born as a result of that shortened season.

The look at the 1995 season really begins the previous season, in 1993-94.

Four goaltenders appeared in excess of 70 games in ’93-4, with Arturs Irbe topping out at 74. The average in the 70’s range was 71.5 amongst the four top goalies.

In 1995-96, the season after the lockout four goalies appeared in more than 70 games. Grant Fuhr played 79 GP, Bill Ranford and Martin Brodeur tied at 77. The average games played for goalies in the 70’s rose to 76.

The biggest change occurred in the range of 60-70 games played.

In 1993-94 nine goalies played over 60 games with a mix of teams in the upper echelon of the NHL, balanced with weaker teams like Ottawa and Tampa Bay, recent expansion clubs with limited time in the NHL.

Moog came in at 31 games with a .915 save percentage with the Stars allowing 135 goals, and Moog letting in 72 or 53% of the goals against that season.

The average for NHL goalies dressing more than 10 games was .898, while goalies that played over 40 games, the average posted average .906 save percentage.

Essentially, the backup goaltender may end up pushing your fantasy team’s save percentage to the top. Don’t overlook the quality of depth in goaltending and what that means to the overall strategy approaching your draft or in negotiations for other players.

Fantasy GM’s can take a gamble that they could find adequate top tier, but not elite goaltending and fare well enough to give your team a fighting chance.

Wins remain an issue with starters likely locking up better numbers. Andy Moog had a .915 save percentage in 1995 for the Dallas Stars, but he sported a 10-12-7 record, hardly impressive numbers.

Three of the five best goals against average were by goalies that didn’t play more than 30 games. Call this an issue due to a smaller sample size, but a fantasy GM shouldn’t overlook the value of depth goaltending.

Work it into your strategy. A little patience and some shrewd positioning decisions could shore up a good overall showing between the pipes.

Look at Ed Belfour, who played the third most minutes (2450), and third most games (42), but faced only 990 shots on goal. The average for the top 10 minutes producers was 1183, meaning theChicagonetminder faced almost 140 less shots on goal, closer to the average afforded to goaltenders in the 35-38 GP range.

The young, upstart in New Jersey that would scorch a path to the Hall of Fame emerged as the Devils nearly ground the league to a halt implementing the ‘left-wing lock’ faced even less shots on goal (908) despite dressing in 40 games.

Both goaltenders let in less than 100 goals, the only top-10 minutes played goaltenders to do so during the year.

This shortened season scenario is absent in the previous season. In 1993-94, four of the five top save percentages were from goalies ranked in the top 15 in minutes played, with Martin Brodeur dressing in 47 games as a rookie.

The top five in save percentages followed the similar pattern.

If the elongated regular season taught GM’s anything it was that goaltenders that played a lot of games into the 60’s range seemed to have ideal elements of equilibrium between fatigue and results.

The lockout shortened season, with a congested schedule produced better results for goaltenders that didn’t play regularly.

Four of the five best save percentages in 1995-96 were earned by goaltenders dressed in games with numbers in the high 50’s, with the lone exception being Jeff Hackett in 34th place with 35 GP and exactly 2000 minutes.

The lockout changed the way we seem to look at goaltending, where only the real NHL elite goaltenders are getting the greater number of starts, and everyone down the chain has settled into a position in tandem with a back up in a shared load.

What it also means is the value in the middle rounds of the goaltending draft rankings. Three goaltenders dressed in more than 70 games averaging 35 wins among them and 10 in the 60 games played range averaging 33.7 wins. Three goaltenders ranked among the top-5 save percentage and two of those goalies, Jonathan Quick and Henrik Lundqvist posted top-5 goals against average.

Be aware of the value of an elite goaltender, even more so if there are expanded categories like save percentage and goals against average. There may be a point in your draft where you are making a decision on the elite goalie, or forward. Be aware of the value and that decision becomes easier to make.

In this season of minimal practice, lots of travel and crazy schedules, making better goaltending decisions will have a significant impact.

In the upcoming three or so months, the carousel will be at full throttle, alternating netminders in creases across the league.

I wondered if there were any parallels to be learned from the previous lockout. In the run up to finding very little to learn from that particular season, it seems the current day trend may have been born as a result of that shortened season.

The look at the 1995 season really begins the previous season, in 1993-94.

Four goaltenders appeared in excess of 70 games in ’93-4, with Arturs Irbe topping out at 74. The average in the 70’s range was 71.5 amongst the four top goalies.

In 1995-96, the season after the lockout four goalies appeared in more than 70 games. Grant Fuhr played 79 GP, Bill Ranford and Martin Brodeur tied at 77. The average games played for goalies in the 70’s rose to 76.

The biggest change occurred in the range of 60-70 games played.

In 1993-94 nine goalies played over 60 games with a mix of teams in the upper echelon of the NHL, balanced with weaker teams like Ottawa and Tampa Bay, recent expansion clubs with limited time in the NHL.

Moog came in at 31 games with a .915 save percentage with the Stars allowing 135 goals, and Moog letting in 72 or 53% of the goals against that season.

The average for NHL goalies dressing more than 10 games was .898, while goalies that played over 40 games, the average posted average .906 save percentage.

Essentially, the backup goaltender may end up pushing your fantasy team’s save percentage to the top. Don’t overlook the quality of depth in goaltending and what that means to the overall strategy approaching your draft or in negotiations for other players.

Fantasy GM’s can take a gamble that they could find adequate top tier, but not elite goaltending and fare well enough to give your team a fighting chance.

Wins remain an issue with starters likely locking up better numbers. Andy Moog had a .915 save percentage in 1995 for the Dallas Stars, but he sported a 10-12-7 record, hardly impressive numbers.

Three of the five best goals against average were by goalies that didn’t play more than 30 games. Call this an issue due to a smaller sample size, but a fantasy GM shouldn’t overlook the value of depth goaltending.

Work it into your strategy. A little patience and some shrewd positioning decisions could shore up a good overall showing between the pipes.

Look at Ed Belfour, who played the third most minutes (2450), and third most games (42), but faced only 990 shots on goal. The average for the top 10 minutes producers was 1183, meaning theChicagonetminder faced almost 140 less shots on goal, closer to the average afforded to goaltenders in the 35-38 GP range.

The young, upstart in New Jersey that would scorch a path to the Hall of Fame emerged as the Devils nearly ground the league to a halt implementing the ‘left-wing lock’ faced even less shots on goal (908) despite dressing in 40 games.

Both goaltenders let in less than 100 goals, the only top-10 minutes played goaltenders to do so during the year.

This shortened season scenario is absent in the previous season. In 1993-94, four of the five top save percentages were from goalies ranked in the top 15 in minutes played, with Martin Brodeur dressing in 47 games as a rookie.

The top five in save percentages followed the similar pattern.

If the elongated regular season taught GM’s anything it was that goaltenders that played a lot of games into the 60’s range seemed to have ideal elements of equilibrium between fatigue and results.

The lockout shortened season, with a congested schedule produced better results for goaltenders that didn’t play regularly.

Four of the five best save percentages in 1995-96 were earned by goaltenders dressed in games with numbers in the high 50’s, with the lone exception being Jeff Hackett in 34th place with 35 GP and exactly 2000 minutes.

The lockout changed the way we seem to look at goaltending, where only the real NHL elite goaltenders are getting the greater number of starts, and everyone down the chain has settled into a position in tandem with a back up in a shared load.

What it also means is the value in the middle rounds of the goaltending draft rankings. Three goaltenders dressed in more than 70 games averaging 35 wins among them and 10 in the 60 games played range averaging 33.7 wins. Three goaltenders ranked among the top-5 save percentage and two of those goalies, Jonathan Quick and Henrik Lundqvist posted top-5 goals against average.

Be aware of the value of an elite goaltender, even more so if there are expanded categories like save percentage and goals against average. There may be a point in your draft where you are making a decision on the elite goalie, or forward. Be aware of the value and that decision becomes easier to make.

In this season of minimal practice, lots of travel and crazy schedules, making better goaltending decisions will have a significant impact.

Gus Katsaros is the Pro Scouting Coordinator with McKeen’s Hockey, publishers of industry leading scouting and fantasy guide, the McKeen’s Annual Hockey Pool Yearbook. He also contributes to popular blog MapleLeafsHotStove.com ... he can be followed on Twitter @KatsHockeyEmail :Gus Katsaros