Upgrading the Hurricane Forecast

“The National Hurricane Center has been doing an excellent job over the past few decades of persistently increasing the hurricane forecast track accuracy,” said Fuqing Zhang, professor of meteorology at the Pennsylvania State University. “But there have been virtually no improvements in the intensity forecast.”

When Hurricane Irene swept through New England in August 2011, the National
Hurricane Center (NHC) did an astounding job of predicting its path. However,
Irene arrived significantly weaker than originally forecast, leading to a larger
evacuation than would have occurred had NHC's intensity forecasts been closer to
the mark.