Foreign Exchange Gain

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Foreign Exchange Gain

DAILY MARKET REPORT
December 15th 2016

EUR/USD

The common currency tumbled to the 1.0510 region against the greenback, after the US Federal Reserve hiked its funds rate by 25bps as expected to 0.50% to 0.75%, by an unanimous decision. The dot-plot was actually what triggered dollar’s demand, as the Central Bank is now anticipating three rate increases for 2017. Also, the latest economic projections suffered a modest upward revision, as the FED expects GDP to grow 1.6% in 2016, 2.1% In 2017 and 1.9% in 2019, revised up from September projection of 1.8%, 2.0% and 1.8% respectively. The unemployment rate is projected to run around 4.5% during the next three years.

During the press conference, FED’s head Janet Yellen did her best to cool down expectations of a faster pace of growth or rate hikes, but the dollar retained its bullish strength, heading into the Asian opening less than 5 pips away from its yearly low. The strong momentum of the American currency is set to persist in the upcoming Asian session, with the EUR/USD pair poised to challenge the 1.0504 yearly low. Technically speaking the 4 hours chart supports the decline given that the price is well below its moving averages, whilst technical indicators head sharply lower within negative territory. 2015 low was set at 1.0460, with a break below it opening doors for further slides towards the 1.0410 region this Friday.

Support levels: 1.0500 1.0460 1.0410

Resistance levels: 1.0550 1.0590 1.0630

Foreign Exchange Gain

USD/JPY

The USD/JPY pair surged to a fresh 10-month high of 117.22 before retreating modestly, holding on to FED-triggered gains ahead of the Asian opening. Released at the beginning of the day, the Japanese Tankan report showed that business sentiment improved during the third quarter, following a weakening JPY. The BOJ’s survey showed that confidence among manufacturers surged to 10 from previous 6, as expected, although for services companies and other non-manufacturing firms flat at 18. In fact, most readings missed market’s expectations, although it came in slightly better than the previous one. A just-enough hawkish FED, boosted the pair that now has scope to extend its advance towards the 118.40/60 region, where the pair presents multiple weekly lows during 2015. Technically overbought, the 4 hours chart shows that there are no signs of upward exhaustion, with indicators still heading north at fresh weekly highs. Furthermore, and in the same chart, the 100 SMA has advanced further below the current level, now approaching 114.00, the 23.6% retracement of the 2011/15 rally, and now a line in the sand for this ongoing bullish trend.

Support levels: 116.60 116.15 115.60

Resistance levels: 117.45 117.90 118.40

Foreign Exchange Gain

GBP/USD

After trading as high as 1.2720, the GBP/USD pair plummeted to 1.2548, a fresh 2-week low and back to the 50% retracement of its latest bullish run, and not far from the floor set last week around 1.2550. The pair initially ignored the release of a better-than-expected employment report, showing that unemployment benefits´ claims rose by less than expected in November, by 2.4K against a forecast of 5.5K. The unemployment rate remained steady at 4.8% in the three months to October, while average earnings, excluding bonus, rose by 2.6%. Still, the employment rate edge lower to 74.4% in the three months to October, the first drop since the three months to April 2015. Ahead of the BOE’s decision this Thursday, the technical picture is bearish for the pair, although a clear break below the current 1.2550 region is required to confirm further slides, eyeing a test of the daily ascendant trend line coming from December 1st low, now around 1.2510. In the 4 hours chat, the price has broken below a modestly bullish 20 SMA, whilst technical indicators gain bearish momentum within negative territory, supporting a downward extension, particularly if the BOE presents a dovish stance.

Support levels: 1.2550 1.2510 1.2470

Resistance levels: 1.2590 1.2630 1.2665

Foreign Exchange Gain

AUD/USD

The AUD/USD pair was among the biggest losers following the FED’s decision, as commodity-related currencies were weighed not only by dollar’s strength, but also by stocks and commodities’ slides. The pair nears the 0.7400 level at the end of the day, but further slides will depend much on Australian data. During the upcoming Asian session, the country will release its November employment figures, with the economy expected to have added 20.0K new jobs in the month, after disappointing with just 9.8K jobs added in October. The unemployment rate is expected to remain steady at 5.6%, while the participation rate is expected to tick higher, to 64.5% from previous 64.4%. Technically, the pair has broken below a daily ascendant trend line coming from this month low of 0.7310, while in the 4 hours chart, technical readings support a bearish extension, with indicators heading south near oversold levels. A strong support comes in the 0.7360/70 region, with a break below it opening doors for a steeper decline towards the mentioned monthly low.

Support: levels: 0.7400 0.7365 0.7330

Resistance levels: 0.7450 0.7495 0.7540

Foreign Exchange Gain

GBP/CAD

The GBP/CAD cross recovered some ground this Wednesday, spiking up to 1.6752, but settled around the key 1.6660 level, a major Fibonacci level. The early spike was triggered by a stronger Pound at the beginning of the day, and retreated alongside with the GBP/USD pair, ignoring much of what happened around the USD/CAD, which jumped higher after the FED. Oil traded lower, despite positive news from the sector, as , the US Energy Information Administration reported that crude stockpiles fell by 2.6 million barrels for the week ended Dec. 9th, more than the 1.5 million decline expected. Technically, the cross is neutral in its daily chart, as indicators hover around their mid-lines, whilst the price pulled back from a horizontal 20 DMA. In the 4 hours chart, the price is now above a modestly bullish 20 SMA, but was again unable to settle above the 200 EMA, while technical indicators have turned south after crossing their mid-lines, also standing within neutral territory ahead of the Asian opening.

Support levels: 1.6600 1.6550 1.6490

Resistance levels: 1.6720 1.6775 1.6840

Foreign Exchange Gain

Dow Jones

US indexes eased from record highs following FED’s announcement, as the Central Bank now sees the possibility of three rate hikes for 2017, against previous two, somehow suggesting a faster pace of tightening ahead. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 118 points or 0.60% to settle at 19,792.53, while the Nasdaq Composite shed 27 points and closed at 5,436.67. The S&P ended the day at 2,253.28, 0.81% lower. The daily chart for the DJIA shows that the RSI indicator is retreating within overbought territory, now heading lower around 78, while the Momentum indicator has also lost upward strength, but turned flat far above its mid-line. In the same chart, the 20 DMA continues heading higher but far below the current level, whilst the index posted a lower low for the week, indicating that a downward correction is likely, but an interim top is far from being confirmed. In the 4 hours chart, the index is a few points below a bullish 20 SMA, the Momentum indicator remains flat around its 100 level, while the RSI indicator is now consolidating around 61, having already corrected extreme overbought readings, and in line with the longer term outlook.

Support levels: 19,746 19,669 19,605

Resistance levels: 19,878 19,930 19,985

Foreign Exchange Gain

FTSE

The FTSE 100 shed some ground during the European session, ending the day lower by 19 points or 0.28% at 6,949.19, with Dixons Carphone dragging the benchmark lower, as the retailer close 6.57% lower, despite a rise in half-yearly pre-tax profits, as it warned that “more uncertain times” lay ahead. Mining-related equities recovered some ground, with Fresnillo adding 3.15% and Randgold Resources closing 2.77% higher. Standard Chartered extended its previous advance and close 2.18% up. Still trading below the 7,000 mark, the daily chart shows that the index is losing its upward potential, trading within a well-defined range with the base being the 100 DMA at 6,860. Technical indicators in the mentioned time frame are turning modestly lower within positive territory, lacking, however, strength. In the shorter term and according to the 4 hours chart, the index is breaking through a flat 20 SMA, the Momentum indicator is entering negative territory, while the RSI indicator turned south around 56, all of which support additional slides for this Friday.

Support levels: 6,926 6,860 6,804

Resistance levels: 6,948 7,000 7,044

Foreign Exchange Gain

Gold

Spot gold plummeted to fresh 10-month lows, nearing $1,140 a troy ounce by US close, after the US Central Bank offers the exact dose of hawkishness the market was waiting for. The dollar’s momentum is set to extend during the Asian session, with spot poised to test January’s high of 1,128.00 during the upcoming sessions, as the FED sounded quite optimistic, despite Yellen’s efforts to down-talk the outcome of the meeting. Technical readings favor a downward extension, as in the daily chart, technical indicators turned sharply lower, with the RSI indicator heading south around 23, still above this year’s low, which means that there’s room for further slides, as the metal is weighed by sentiment, and will likely ignore oversold conditions. Shorter term, and according to the 4 hours chart, the metal broke below its 20 SMA after failing to surpass the upper band of the descendant channel that leads price action ever since mid November, whilst technical indicators head sharply lower within oversold territory, also indicating that the risk is towards the downside.

Support levels: 1,137.70 1,128.00 1,119.10

Resistance levels: 1,150.10 1,161.80 1,171.30

Foreign Exchange Gain

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