Technical Analysis and Cognitive Bias [Premium Articles]

One may find scores of recent articles in the blogoshpere calling for a continuation of the gold downtrend after a pause and an extension of the stock rally to ... you pick the future date, all are there. In reality, these analysts are conveying their cognitive biases to the public because unless one experiences precognition and knows the future the only reasonable assessment of the situation can be a subjective probability much less than 1. Current situations in GLD and SPY are discussed.

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