Monday, January 05, 2015

Eli has been out holidaying with the relatives and, as everybunny knows, Rabetts have many. To fill the blog until he gets back to business, Eli will outsource to ATTP, more specifically to John, who in the comments about Let's all just get rich brings Vlad and Est into the climate blogosphere.

Vlad: Shouldn’t we devise a way to climb out of this hole we’ve dug ourselves into?Est: What hole? There is no hole.Vlad: Yes there is. We are standing in it. And digging it deeper, no less.
Est: Oh, this isn’t a hole. It’s a natural variation in the landscape.Vlad: It’s getting deeper and deeper.Est: Yes, but not because we are digging. It is deepening due to other factors.Vlad: Shouldn’t we at least dig more slowly.Est: Digging more slowly is not an option. I think, perhaps, a more prudent solution would be to dig much faster.Vlad: What!?
Est: The faster we dig, the faster we’ll find a way out of the hole.
Vlad: That doesn’t make any sense.
Est: Of course it does, you are just too thick-headed to understand.
Vlad: Please elaborate, then.
Est: The deeper and faster we dig, the more time we’ll have to think of solutions that might get us out of the hole – er, I mean, natural variation in the landscape.
Vlad: Yes, we’ll have more time to think of solutions, but we’ll also be that much deeper.
Est: Shut up and keep digging.

Vlad: Aren’t you concerned about what life will be like at the bottom of this hole?Est: Not in the slightest.
Vlad: Well, there’s a risk that conditions might not be so good down here.
Est: No one can say with any certainty what the conditions will be like. I am, therefore, positive that everything will be fine.
Vlad: Huh?!
Est: Bull up. Think of it as an adventure.
Vlad: I was quite comfortable before, thank you.
Est: And you’ll be quite comfortable in the hole, as well.
Vlad: Are you sure?
Est: You’ll adapt.
Vlad: How much will that cost?
Est: Less than getting out of the hole.
Vlad: I thought you said there was uncertainty?
Est: Oh, yes. A great deal of it.
Vlad: Then, how can you be so certain things will be fine?Est: OMG, look! A squirrel!

Vlad: I’ve just done some analysis. If we keep digging down deeper, there will come a point where we’ll no longer be able to see the sky.
Est: So what?
Vlad: What do you mean,“so what?”
Est: What’s the sky ever done for you, huh? Ever made a dollar off it?
Vlad: Well, no…Est: See? It’s utterly, completely void of value.Vlad: I think you’re missing the point. It’s just kind of nice to look at sometimes.Est: Here, then.Vlad: What’s this?Est: It’s a picture of the sky.Vlad: Ah. It’s lovely, but it’s not quite the same.Est: Of course it’s not the same. Unlike the sky, the picture has value. It cost two whole dollars.
Vlad: How did you afford it?
Est: I had a speaking engagement.
Vlad: Oh, where?
Est: I gave the keynote address at the American Policy and Legislation Think Tank for Freedom and Prosperity and Liberty Foundation.
Vlad: Oh, I see. Wait, aren’t they funded by a shovel-making company?

Est: The geothermal gradient is just a theory endorsed by the anti-shovel lobby, as shown by these emails which hide the decline. Really, it's cool down there.Vlad: Are you crazy? Look, if we dig any deeper the mantle will start to melt by decompression and the hole will fill with lava, how do we adapt to that? Est: Well, the last time there was a pit full of molten lava, our ancestors survived by not living in it.Vlad: But there's far too many of us living in the pit now to move out, and it'll cost far more than stopping digging.Est: But that's probably more than 87 years in the future, and nothing bad happens more than 86 years in the future. Because economics.From Lars Karlsson in the commentsEst: Can you hold the ladder?Vlad: We don't have a ladder, only a spade.Est: Don't twist my words!From Kyle SplawnVlad: All I'm saying is, what do you think is going to happen if we keep digging with our shovels?Est: There you go again with the a priori assumption that digging is related to hole depth! Vlad: You know, you don't have to be in denial about this digging business. Est: How dare you call me a Holocaust denier!!!

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Eli has made a start at linking Vlad and Est to the underlying discussion, perhaps others would like to help? Added: Need not be to ATTP or the post at ATTP

If you dig fast enough, the hole will get warmer from the increasing geothermal flux than climate change, and soon after you pass the mantle-core boundary, you will get to the heliopause, where the walls of the hole are as incandesecent as the surface of the sun, so you won't be able to see the sky anyway.

Pictures of the heliopause may be commissioned for $1.00 per degree K of color temperature per square meter by transmitting funds to Mnestheus@paypal.com

VPs sentiments here kinda fits, although he ruins it with a little self reflection.----Est: Bull up. Think of it as an adventure.

victorpetri says:...

Your common denominator, I believe, the reason why you guys are so passionate in your ideas that climate change is a great danger that should be battled, is that you are the type of risk averse persons.

I am also [like Ridley] a too great of a risk taker, I must acknowledge it, it is what makes me quite a good poker player as well, but it probably makes me someone that underestimates climate change problems...

[M]an to the moon, it was a very risky thing to do, for which, rationally little arguments could be made then. It would be risk takers that enabled it, I think, just like flying the Atlantic before it, or colonizing Mars in the future will.

Once you dig below soil levels, you run out of earthworms and unless somebody sends food down (in return for fossil fuel up) and the diggers starve in a pool of shit.

With everybody digging, there is nobody at the top to send food down (or run the pumps), and everybody is in deep shit. Conversation ceases as shit rises above nose level. (It is hard to tread liquid while holding a spade.)

If you are at the top of the hole looking down, there is no problem. Shut off the pumps and walk away -- the folks at the bottom will stop digging. Then, the (grave) will collapse and over time, disappear.

With the walls at 6,000K , hafnium carbide solar cells can run your steamshovel and lava pumps 24-7, allowing Vlad and Est to dig a low - cost replacement for the Panama Canal 3,000 miles under the present one.

"A common argument advanced by proponents of adaptation is that the alternative, mitigation, is much harder on developing nations. Emerging economies such as China, India and Brazil have made it clear that they are not interested in tempering their explosive growth by lowering greenhouse gas emissions. Poor countries are equally uninterested and have subtly noted that they are not the source of the problem in any case, an understandable viewpoint. Here, people hope to become more affluent as quickly as possible. Reserving money to solve a problem slated for the future doesn’t feel like a priority. In Lawson’s words, 'It’s immoral to ask the people in developing countries to cut back on their carbon emissions when they are dealing with poverty and disease.'"

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Eli Rabett

Eli Rabett, a not quite failed professorial techno-bunny who finally handed in the keys and retired from his wanna be research university. The students continue to be naive but great people and the administrators continue to vary day-to-day between homicidal and delusional without Eli's help. Eli notices from recent political developments that this behavior is not limited to administrators. His colleagues retain their curious inability to see the holes that they dig for themselves. Prof. Rabett is thankful that they, or at least some of them occasionally heeded his pointing out the implications of the various enthusiasms that rattle around the department and school. Ms. Rabett is thankful that Prof. Rabett occasionally heeds her pointing out that he is nuts.