On Wednesday, Aug. 31, the Obama administration admitted that former al Qaeda extremists who fought US forces in Iraq and Afghanistan were part of the rebel push to capture Tripoli. Further highlighting Al Qaeda's importance, Muammar Qaddafi instructed his son Saadi to contact self-styled Tripoli commander Abd Al-Hakim Belhadj, one of the a/m extremists, to discuss ways of ending the war. Qaddafi would have to follow in the West's footsteps and work with al Qaeda supporters if he plans guerrilla warfare against the rebels, the US and NATO.

Members of the Al Qaeda-linked Libyan Islamic Fighting Group – LIFG, are in control of the former strongholds of Muammar Qaddafi captured by Libyan rebels last Sunday, Aug. 21, debkafile reports from Libyan sources. Their chief Abd Al-Hakim Belhadj, an al Qaeda veteran from Afghanistan, now calls himself "Commander of the Tripoli Military Council." A US source confirms that NATO's British and French special forces opened Tripoli's door to the rebels. Now, the LIFG is unlikely to relinquish power to the NTC.

NATO, Britain and France are too broke to finish the job the started in Libya. The Saudi-led Gulf Cooperation Council is ready to provide financing but wants a NATO military arm for overthrowing the Assad regime in Syria and promoting its other interests. The Obama administration welcomes the hook-up to relieve the US for some of its financial burdens.

Muammar Qaddafi's ouster has opened Tripoli's door to al Qaeda, a covert component of which is harbored by the rebel NTC. The jihads are not averse to playing both sides of the Libyan dividing in hooking up with Qaddafi too. This will depend on AQIM's broader interests in North Africa, including Algeria.

Muammar Qaddafi, family and elite are reported by debkafile's military sources to have abandoned their Bab al Aziziya fortress early Tuesday, Aug. 23, using Saif al-Islam's surreal appearance before foreign reporters earlier in the day to cover their escape. They are believed to have exited the compound through one of the underground tunnels of the compound's military complex. But regional intelligence experts are frankly baffled by the enigma of the overnight disappearance without a trace of Qaddafi's army divisions.

In an extraordinary turnabout in the Tripoli standoff between West-backed Libyan rebels and Muammar Qaddafi, his son Saif al-Islam turned up with cheering crowds at the Rixos hotel early Tuesday, Aug. 23, and told foreign reporters he was never captured as widely reported. "We are winning,"he said.
His detention was not only reported by the rebels but "confirmed" embarrassingly by the International Criminal Court's prosecutors. "The rebels fell into a trap," said Saif.

NATO is reverting to its "shock and awe" plan to finally bomb Muammar Qaddafi out of power, although nothing is known about Washington's position or participation. The rebels are already rejoicing and boasting about fictitious victories.

After ruling out direct military intervention, most governments concerned in the drive to oust Bashar Assad find that arming the rebels and pumping thousands of Sunni volunteers into Syria are the only feasible option. But before this plan is up and running, he is expected to preemptively employ the Lebanese Shiite Hizballah for heating up the Lebanese-Israel border or even spark an all-out conflagration between the two long-time foes which would quickly ignite the Golan border between Syria and Israel.

The rush of military advances claimed by Libyan rebels and the rumored near collapse of Muammar Qaddafi's army and his imminent flight are designed, debkafile's sources report, as a smokescreen for current occurrences. One is the semi-secret opening of Libyan government-rebel talks on the Tunisian island of Djerba Saturday and their significant progress. Another is the deep divisions in the rebel leadership. debkafile has for weeks been reporting on talks afoot on Qaddafi's incremental departure from power.

Taking advantage of the 15-day leeway granted him by the US and Turkey, Bashar Assad Monday, Aug. 15, sent tanks and mechanized infantry into Homs, a town of 1.5 million inhabitants. Heavy shelling rings out as clouds of smoke rise over the city. Homs is Syria's third largest town and the biggest the Syrian military has attacked. In Latakia, Syrian tanks continue to battle armed Palestinians and in Brussels, NATO and Turkey get set to send the rebels anti-tank weapons.

Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu's Damascus mission started with a military ultimatum and ended on a weak note which drew a contemptuous reaction from Bashar Assad. Damascus is working against the clock. Assad hopes to have broken the back of the anti-Assad protest. Otherwise, zero military conscription will break the army.

Less than 24 hours after Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu handed Bashar Assad in Damascus "a final warning," to stop the bloodshed or else, Assad demonstrated coolly that he is not scared by the prospect of Turkish or NATO military intervention or deterred by new US sanctions against Syria's biggest bank and mobile phone company. The day after his Turkish guest departed, Wednesday, Aug. 10, Assad launched provocative military assaults on three towns in the Turkish border region - following receipt of a missile shield guarantee from Iran.

Twelve hours after Russian President Dmitry Medvedev warned Assad he faced a "sad fate" if he failed to introduce reforms, Moscow's envoy to NATO Dmitry Rogozin accused the Western alliance of planning a military campaign against Syria to help overthrow the Assad regime "with the long-reaching goal of preparing a beachhead for an attack on Iran."
In an Izvestia interview Friday, Aug. 5, Rogozin added: "This statement means that the planning [of the military campaign] is well underway."

Gen. Abdel Fatah Younis, commander of the Libyan rebel forces fighting Muammar Qaddafi, was put to death on the orders of Mustapha Abdul Jalil, head of the rebel TNC, debkafile's sources report. TNC officers abducted him and two aides and shot them in the head 20 kilometers outside Benghazi.

Jalil wanted the powerful Younis out of the way before the start of peace negotiations, for fear he would beat his own path to Qaddafi and head the future government alongside Saif al-Islam.

French Foreign Minister Alain Juppe persuaded the Cameron government climb down from its high Libyan horse and accept that diplomacy is the only sensible option for ending the war. The UK is in no position to dictate terms to Muammar Qaddafi. NATO objects to being left holding the baby.

In its coming issue out Friday, DEBKA-Net-Weeklyanalyzes expectations from the negotiations already afoot (amid violence and setbacks) between Muammar Qaddafi, on one side, and the US, Russia, NATO and the rebels, on the other. Still in control of Libya's army, biggest tribes, cities and oil, Qaddafi will loom large over Libya's future - even after he steps down.
The stalling of the Arab Revolt's spread obliges the US, Britain and France to reassess their Middle East positions.

The Libyan war virtually ended Thursday morning, July 14, when US President Barack Obama called Russian President Dmitry Medvedev to hand Moscow the lead in peace negotiations for Muammar Qaddafi to step down and make way for a transitional administration. He thereby accepted the Russian-Libyan peace formula over NATO's heads. Instead of standing in the dock in The Hague, Qaddafi and his sons will sit at talks for Libya's next regime.

Libyan Ruler Muammar Qaddafi's threat to "throw ourselves on Europe like swarms of locusts or bees" to attack "your homes, your offices, your families" may be meant to scare NATO off its coming all-out offensive to kill or oust him – or may be for real. If forced to quit, debkafile reports he could seek asylum with friendly African Sahel tribes like the al Qaeda-linked Tuareg, which also provide him with mercenaries. From there, he could orchestrate a campaign of terror.

Only two Arab autocrats have succumbed to six popular uprisings: four have survived. NATO's score in Libya is zero to one as Europe's war sustainability is hit by the falling euro Two countries are in the grip of civil war and two undergoing partition. Yet Barack Obama is grimly determined to complete his Arab regime change mission.