Sugar falls as big production estimates project further losses

General Comments: Futures closed lower as the ISO continued to estimate big production and big supplies around the world. The close was weak and implies that further losses are coming. There were some reports of shipments getting booked ahead of the Ramadan holiday to give some demand to the market. Traders remain bearish on ideas of big supplies, especially from Brazil. Traders in Brazil expect big production as the weather is good. Demand is said to be strong from North Africa and the Middle East as buyers get stocks in hand for Ramadan in July. Chart patterns are weak.

Overnight News: Mostly dry conditions are expected in Brazil, but some showers are expected on Friday. Temperatures should average near to above normal. The ISO said that the 2013-14 Sugar surplus production could be more than 3.5 million tons.

Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with objectives of 1670, 1610, and 1600 July. Support is at 1670, 1620, and 1600 July, and resistance is at 1700, 1720, and 1740 July. Trends in London are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 470.00, 467.00, and 464.00 August, and resistance is at 480.00, 487.00, and 491.00 August.

COTTON

General Comments: Futures were lower in July, but higher in the new crop months. The rally in new crop months came on forecasts for some storms to develop next week in the Delta and Southeast and also on the rally in Chicago. The weather has improved in all areas with some precipitation in Texas areas and drier weather in the forecast for the next few days for the Delta and Southeast. Traders also were looking for new signs of demand, but were not finding much. Ideas are that the demand can continue for now as China moves to increase its stocks. Planting conditions for the next crop remain a problem in the US. Dry weather is forecast for the Delta and Southeast, and warm weather is expected in Texas this week. Ideas are that farmers can get a lot of planting done with dry and warm conditions.

Overnight News: The Delta and Southeast will see dry conditions or afternoon showers. Showers and storms could last through tomorrow. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Texas will get mostly dry weather, but showers are possible on Friday. Temperatures will average mostly above normal. The USDA spot price is now 78.62 ct/lb. ICE said that certified Cotton stocks are now 0.509 million bales, from 0.509 million yesterday. USDA said that net Upland Cotton export sales were 101,700 bales this year and 36,400 bales next year. Net Pima sales are 5,400 bales this year and 0 bales next year.

Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are down with objectives of 83,20, 82.80, and 81.30 July. Support is at 82.90, 82.20, and 81.70 July, with resistance of 85.00, 85.40, and 87.10 July.

About the Author

Jack Scovilleis a veteran futures market analyst specializing in grains, softs, rice, oilseeds, and tropical products such as coffee and sugar. His industry contacts in South America, Europe, Asia, and North America provide him with a unique and comprehensive view of these markets. Jack began working in the futures industry over 30 years ago and spent 10 years working on the floor of the Chicago Board of Trade in various roles, starting with The PRICE Futures Group since it was established in 1988. Jack writes daily commentaries - Morning Grains and Softs, in both English and Spanish and is regularly quoted around the world by news & wire services including Dow Jones, AP, Bloomberg, and Reuters. You can contact Jack by phone at (312) 264-4322 or by email at jscoville@pricegroup.com. Learn even more on our website at www.pricegroup.com.

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