Now that the draft has ended and we know where most rookies will be starting their NFL careers, I thought I would write an article about which fit is the best for IDP fantasy football. There were many players drafted into good, ideal situations for themselves to succeed. Among those players is Bradley Chubb, Ronnie Harrison, Roquan Smith, Derwin James, Darius Leonard, and others. The player that landed in the best spot for IDP is Roquan Smith, linebacker for the Chicago Bears. Here’s why:

Roquan Smith was my favorite linebacker coming out of college in this draft. He has the ability to cover receivers in the middle of the field and has also shown the ability to track receivers down the field as well. He is a thumper that can sift through traffic and find the ball carrier quickly. He rarely gets hung up on blockers at the second level and shows constantly his ability to fight through blocks to rack up tackles. Smith can also get after the quarterback, amassing 6.5 sacks from his inside linebacker position his senior year. Smith will be a high-volume tackler, coming up with 137 total tackles his senior year, 14 of which were for a loss. Smith is a fast, physical linebacker tough to block that has great instincts for the ball and is a extremely solid tackler.

The defense ran by Bears’ defensive coordinator Vic Fangio is the perfect fit for Roquan. I’m not sure there could’ve been a better landing spot for the young linebacker. Fangio’s defense asks the interior defensive lineman to hold their blocks and allow the players like Smith to identify the play, where the ball is going, and then attacking the ball carrier. Smith is perfect for this role because his ability to dissect a play and figure out where the ball is going is tremendous. Smith will be able to do what he does best in Chicago, which is go after the ball carrier and make tackle after tackle. Smith will be an upgrade for the Bears at the linebacker position. The linebackers last year did a good enough job, but Smith simply has talent and instincts they lack. Expect Smith to come in and immediately win a starting job as the leader of the Bears defense. Smith could very well be the defensive rookie of the year and will be a tremendous asset to your dynasty team. I know someone who used the 1.02 on Roquan this year. Smith is easily worth a 1st round pick and if your linebacking corps is weak, don’t be afraid to take him early in the draft. Even in his rookie year I could see Smith getting around 100 total tackles, 3-4 sacks, and an INT. Expect big things from Smith as he landed in, probably, the best place he could have.

The defensive end from Boston College, Harold Landry, is this year’s rookie to own at the defensive end position. His main competition for the title came from consensus top-10 pick Bradley Chubb of North Carolina State. Bradley Chubb is a monstrous man that was a terror for offenses this past season. However, I believe that Harold Landry will provide the biggest impact in both the fantasy world and when it comes to in game production. In 2016, when Landry played a full season and was continuously healthy he was a tremendous asset for the Boston College defense. He collected 50 tackles (a good number for a DE), 22 TFL (which is amazing), and 16.5 sacks (which is unbelievable). He did all of this in just 12 games. 12 games are all it took for him to collect 16.5 sacks. I expect Landry to put up good numbers his rookie season and he will only get better as time goes on.

Landry has great speed from the edge and his bend is impressive as well. He will be able to use his skills to get around offensive tackles in the NFL quickly and cleanly. Landry’s greatest asset is his speed around the edge and it is what will be his primary tool as he takes over the NFL. But as he gains experience and can better fully use his full tool set he will become one of the most feared pass rushers in the league. Landry is not without his weaknesses however. He does not get his hands involved enough and this allows him to be knocked around a little when he is cleanly engaged by stronger and more powerful opponents. For him to live up to his full potential he will have to learn to use his hands better. With all this being said, I do believe that with NFL coaching and NFL game experience Landry will be able to fully utilize his skill set and turn into a tremendous defensive end. Landry will turn into a top 5 defensive end in the NFL by the time he has finished his second year in the league.

Turning our attention to more fantasy-oriented discussion now, it is my belief that Landry has the ability to come in this year and make an impact worthy of a high end DE2 or low end DE1. What kind of impact he makes, his floor or his ceiling, will depend upon his landing spot. He could see himself go to a team that has 2 decent starters and plays a rotational, next-man-up role or he could go to a team with only one or even no decent starters. His long-term impact will also depend on the landing spot as him becoming a top fantasy player at his position will depend upon if his coaches can get the best out of him.

A spot he could land in that would end with him in his floor range would be Cleveland, who could conceivably draft a DE, but with Myles Garret already there and other solid pieces around him would block him for a year or two before being a full-blown starter (not to mention the less than stellar coaching staff). One of the best landing spots for him would be the Detroit Lions. The Lions only have Ziggy Ansah as a solidified starting defensive end and even he is not always reliable as he has had his share of injury issues in the past. In addition to this the Lions also have their coaching staff, which features Matt Patricia and Landry’s college defensive line coach. With Patricia and Landry’s college coach working together it would bring a blend of knowledge of Landry’s playing style and Patricia’s creative coaching that would bring out the best possible Harold Landry. If Harold Landry went to the Lions that should immediately excite every fantasy owner who owns him in their leagues.

Regardless of where Landry ends up he will be the best defensive end to come out of this draft for both the fantasy realm of things and the in-game production. Landry’s unique blend of speed and bend will automatically allow for him to be successful in the NFL. And when his coaches have bettered his ability to use his hands to the fullest extent he will be nearly unstoppable. Landry will become a DE1 in all dynasty formats over time and most likely sooner rather than later. Landry will be my number one target at the defensive end position in all rookie drafts this year. Take him and don’t look back.

Over the course of the next few weeks I will be writing a column on who you should seek to obtain for your fantasy team(s). These columns will be for dynasty leagues. While a player may not come in and make an immediate impact in year one, they project to make a bigger impact over the course of a few years. I will cover all the defensive positions including DT, DE, LB, CB, & S. The first position of interest is along the defensive line: more specifically, defensive tackle.

Taven Bryan, DT, University of Florida

My rookie defensive tackle to own in this year’s draft is Taven Bryan. I realize that most people will probably pick up Maurice Hurst or Vita Vea, but Vea does not offer the pass rushing ability that Bryan does, and Hurst’s medical situation makes him a risky pick. I’m not saying that these other two DTs won’t be beneficial to own, I’m merely saying that I think Bryan is the better of the three to have on your team. If you’re adding Taven Bryan to your team you’re doing so with the future in mind. His rookie season will probably not be as good as some other DTs from this draft, but for dynasty leagues Bryan is the guy you want on your team. He will come in day one with the expectation of at the minimum being a rotational back up, someone that sees the field on maybe 35% (give or take) of a team’s defensive snaps.

He will bring some value his rookie season but will need some seasoning and coaching before he plays up to his full potential. Bryan has outstanding athleticism for a defensive tackle. @MathBomb posted his RAS (Relative Athletic Score) card, which measures a player’s athletic ability on a scale of 0-10 based on a number of different athletic tests (such as the 40-yard dash and the broad jump), and Bryan posted a score of 9.88 which was high enough for the 12th highest RAS for any defensive tackle of all time. Bryan excelled in drills such as the broad jump and vertical jump, which helps show how explosive a player may be, by posting scores of 9.88 (broad) and 9.79 (vertical). These numbers are backed up by his tape which shows an explosive player with a quick first step and a disruptive presence along the middle of the defensive line. Bryan was in the backfield more plays than not when he was on the field. He offers an imposing force in both the run and pass game, as he can disrupt running lanes and put constant pressure on the quarterback. Bryan also hustles down the field and can make tackles farther down the field than a defensive tackle normally would, which will appeal to teams that look for defensive lineman who don’t consider themselves out of the play once the ball is more than 10 yards down the field. However, having said all of this, Bryan has a couple of problems that I believe will prevent him from having the impact others might have in year one.

One problem Bryan has is that, while a disruptive force, he tends to get too far upfield on many plays, thus washing himself out of the play. Another problem that might hold up his production is he often cannot disengage when an offensive lineman gets his hands set inside of Bryan and grabs control of him. When this happens, Bryan fails to disengage from the offensive lineman and gets washed out of the play, and sometimes end up on the ground. Bryan will also need to develop his pass rushing moves more, but he will most likely improve upon those quickly once training camp and practices begin.

The first problem can be solved by getting game experience and NFL coaching, as over time he will learn to control his excellent burst better and will allow him to better make impact plays in the backfield. The latter can be solved by him putting on a few more pounds, making it harder to gain control of him, and extending his arms more on impact so that offensive lineman cannot get close enough to gain leverage on him.

I expect Bryan to have a solid rookie year, but once he has learned to better control his burst off the ball and translate it into more sack and TFLs Bryan will be able to anchor the lineups of fantasy players. Bryan’s floor to me is as a low end DT2 or high end DT3 but he has the potential to be a high end DT1 once he better learns to turn his burst off the line and disruption in the backfield into stats such as sacks and TFLs. NFL.com analyst Lance Zierlein compared him to Cam Jordan of the New Orleans Saints and others have even compared him to JJ Watt. I’m not telling you that I expect him to put up JJ Watt or Cam Jordan type numbers any time soon, I’m simply showing you what others think of Bryan’s abilities and potential upside in the NFL. Bryan’s athletic ability and insane explosion is what gives him such a high ceiling and I believe that Bryan will be the defensive tackle to own in dynasty IDP formats from this year’s draft.

Every year a player who had an average, or below average, fantasy season the year before turns it around and breaks out the next year. For this upcoming season I’m predicting that the breakout player of the 2018 NFL season will be Jarrad Davis, LB for the Detroit Lions.

2017 Season Recap:

Davis has the natural athletic ability and talent to defend the run at a high level and to cover tight ends and running backs in coverage. However, Davis’s performance in 2017 was a disappointment in both fantasy production and game production. He would often go charging in blindly at full speed in pursuit of a runner causing him to miss the ball carrier if he made a move. He was even worse in coverage his rookie season which led to him being used mostly on running downs the last 6 weeks of the year. He was able to get an interception, but overall his impact on passing downs were far more negative than positive. Davis accrued 96 total tackles, 65 of them solo, 2 sacks, 1 INT, and 1 FF his rookie season. This production was good enough for 105 fantasy points, but many expected more out of the ex-Florida LB. Davis had too many missed tackles last year, and was a liability in coverage, leading to a paltry grade of 46.1 from PFF for the year. Pro Football Focus (PFF) is a company that grades players based on their performances in game. They compile stats and watch film to give a player a game grade depending on how well they did their job for that game. His season grade of 46.1 was one of the worst in the league for the LB position. Davis did improve over the course of the season though. For the last 6 weeks of the season, when the Lions started using him in limited packages (almost exclusively against the run), he was the 4th highest ranked LB by PFF. If he can get his pass defense to match that kind of production from his run defense, and perform well at both for a full season, the Lions could have an All-Pro on their hands. His counterpart, Tahir Whitehead, who is a free agent that I’m expecting to resign with the Lions, has led the Lions in tackles and IDP fantasy points the past two seasons but I expect that to change in this coming year. Davis was good for 105 fantasy points during the 2017 season but expect that number to greatly improve next year.

2018 Season Outlook:

Davis has a year of experience under his belt coming into this season and will have a better idea of what to expect come game time. He also has a new coach, Matt Patricia, who will know how to get the best out of Davis and that means a potential All-Pro linebacker. Patricia has a knack for turning below average players into above average contributors on his defenses. Patricia will know how to turn Davis’s talent into top tier production and transform him into the All-Pro linebacker fans were hoping for when he was drafted in the 1st round last year. I am expecting Davis to be used on a more full-time basis all season, with him having made big strides in both his run and pass defense over the offseason. I’m expecting Davis to produce around 80-85 solo tackles, 35 assists, 7-9 TFLs, 4-5 sacks, 3 INTs, and 3 FF, and around 140-150 fantasy points. Davis has the talent and ability to put these types of numbers up, and with a coach like Patricia helping him to better craft his game I’m expecting Davis to show a great deal of improvement for the 2018 season in both fantasy and game production.

A great man once said, “America is all about speed. Hot, nasty, badass speed.” Pretty true statement, and certainly a quality you should be looking for when analyzing the next young batch of NFL ready cornerbacks. Standing at 5’11 and weighing in around 175 pounds, LSU’s Donte Jackson won’t embody the physically intimidating presence of recent studs like Jalen Ramsey, but for what he lacks in size he more than compensates for with blazing speed and versatility.

Jackson recorded 49 tackles, deflected 10 passes and recorded 1 INT in 2017. His coaches and teammates at LSU compare him to Tyrann Mathieu due to his knack for making big plays and his ability to man different positions when needed. (At times he took snaps at nickel and even safety). Running a wildly impressive 6.63 60-meter dash and with a personal 40-yard dash goal in the low 4.2s for the upcoming combine, Jackson may have been the fastest player in college football this past season and could easily position himself in the upper echelon of speedsters in the NFL as soon as his number is called in April.

Any NFL team looking for someone they can rely on lining up against the Brandon Cooks of the league next year will take a long look at Jackson. Many have him pegged as a late day one selection, however he could slip due to worries over lack of discipline. Regardless, he won’t slip far. See above quote.

Darius Leonard plays LB for South Carolina State, and FCS school, but probably should’ve been playing at an FBS school. Leonard grew up always assuming that he would suit up and play his college ball at Clemson University because that was where his half-brother Anthony Waters played. Clemson only offered him a preferred-walk on spot, so he instead decided to take a full ride at SCSU. Leonard made the most of his opportunity by making a name for himself as one of the best, if not the best, linebacker at the FCS level. After his junior season in 2016 Leonard was awarded the MEAC Defensive Player of the Year and was also named a AFCA National FCS First Team All-American. Both of these awards came off a strong junior year in which he recorded 124 total tackles, 78 solo tackles, 14.5 TFLs, 3.5 sacks, 2 INTs, 5 PBs, 4 FFs, and 2 blocked kicks. He followed up his strong 2016 season with a senior season in 2017 that consisted of 114 total tackles, 73 solo tackles, 12 TFLs, 8.5 sacks, 2 INTs, 1 PB, and 1 FF. This outstanding season once again won him the MEAC Defensive Player of the Year (2017).

Strengths:

There wasn’t a lot of film on Leonard out there, but from what I saw Leonard is a team player who is willing to do whatever assignment he is given. He is able to fill gaps and stop the RB from bouncing the ball outside or cutting the ball back in resulting in the RB being forced into another teammate. But Leonard does much more than just follow his assignments. Leonard has great speed and can get from one spot on the field to another in pursuit quickly, showing off his sideline-to-sideline speed. Leonard diagnoses his opponents plays and reacts quickly, often disrupting the play at or behind the line of scrimmage and racks up tackles in the process. He is often able to avoid the blocker at the 2nd level while coming downhill or in pursuit of the runner. He is efficient in his play and is good in coverage, having a fair amount of career interceptions given his position. When he is dropping in coverage and then has to change direction quickly because the QB has scrambled, he is able to recover quickly and wastes no time getting to the football.

Weaknesses:

One thing that stood out while watching film is that when he is squared up and bodied by a stronger and more physical lineman at the 2nd level he can get stuck on that block, struggling to disengage. He sometimes lacks the strength to fight through some blocks and that could pose a problem at the next level. Matt Miller recently posted on Twitter “Darius Leonard was 190 coming out of HS and is up to 230-235 now. Can’t imagine his frame taking any more bulk and play strength is already a weakness”. From the film I saw he is mostly ineffective at blitzing when coming up the middle but can be used effectively when blitzing from the edge. He does well in coverage but could still use more work when reading the QB when he is in the pocket. His pursuit angles are generally good, but sometimes can take bad angles and get mixed up in traffic, stopping him from making the tackle. Overall, his game needs improvement in a few areas, but most of that can be further developed at the next level. However, his play strength is probably his biggest concern and as Matt Miller pointed out earlier, I’m not sure how much more weight he can put on without it negatively impacting his game.

Draft Projection:

Overall, Leonard offers a good linebacker prospect who just needs to work on playing with more aggression and better reading the QB in coverage. He is an athletic player and has the ability to read plays making him a playmaker and offering a good upside for a team looking for a linebacker in the middle rounds. I think he will go somewhere in the 3rd-4th rounds.

Fantasy Relevant Information/Outlook:

Leonard will probably not be the starter on whatever team he is drafted to but should be given plenty of opportunities to see regular playing time. When he does see the field expect him to rack up tackles as he has a nose for the ball and is able to recognize and close in on the ball carrier quickly. He also had his fair share of interceptions in college, so don’t be surprised if he gets an interception or two as well, although I expect him to be on the field mostly for running downs. If you draft or add Leonard to your team you are counting on him to see the field often and when on the field you are expecting him to make tackles on a lot of his plays as well. Depending on what situation he is drafted into, he could be worth playing. If he goes somewhere like the Colts or Raiders he could see a lot of playing time as they don’t have a ton of talent there, and therefor would be worth checking out. However, if he is drafted by a team like the Vikings or Browns, who have a lot of talent at the position then he probably would not be worth playing on your team.

Maurice Hurst is a 6’2 280 lb senior DT out of the University of Michigan. In his senior year (his best at Michigan), Hurst was named to the All-Big Ten Defensive first team while having a career high in tackles, 59, 13.5 of which were for a loss. His senior season help put him on most GMs draft radar. During his time at Michigan he was also a 3x Academic All-Big Ten.

Strengths:

Hurst has a lightning quick first step, which allows him to be fast to the point of attack. He tends to get off the ball low and fire the gap to create good penetration and cause havoc in the backfield. For his size, he is pretty agile, and combine that with a high motor, it allows him to make plays well beyond the gaps. Smart player, with a great learning curve and sense for the game as showed by his academic all-Big Ten honors.

Weakness:

Whoever drafts Hurst, he needs to immediately hit the weight room to bulk up, as by NFL standards, is a little small for the prototypical DT. He needs to prove that he can power through a block, and not relay on a move or technique. Some scouts think he is limited to a three-technique, but that could change over time with the right system and or coaches.

Overall:

Hurst is getting some first round grades by scouts, and should go mid to late 1st, early 2nd if he slips. His ideal landing spot would be with a team that runs a 4-3 up field system that he can play a three-technique style. If he gets drafted by a 3-4 system and does not adapt to it, he could become a rotational/situational DT and not a starter.

Setting a lineup and hitting waivers is the life blood of a team all season long. When the last snap of the Monday night game goes in the books we start listing all the lineups we want and go after the players we deem "our guys". This constant picking up and dropping can make us second guess out lineups and fall into a streak of second guessing ourselves. I was that guy last year in our 2016 season in our dynasty. I constantly benched studs for bums. It's easy to second guess your gut and all the bombardment of expert analysis.

I like to discount the first 3 weeks in the lineup mistakes. Most players don’t really get cooking and being consistent till week 4. For instance, I didn't start Nick Vigil week 1 but I was still able to win. Week 3 I played Cutler instead of either Mariota or Winston, who both had double his numbers, but I yet still won. In 2016 I had a horrible start to the season and I kept killing my lineups and wound up with a top-4 pick in our dynasty. To be fair I did give up and was happy hoping to get Nick Chubb (who returned so that was great) which in a redraft is pointless.

This year I was hitting on all cylinders and went 7 and 0 before I tasted defeat. The only way I could of won that week was playing the Colts team D instead of Pitt. The rest of my team had a bye week. Fast forward to my next loss in week 10 I faltered by not playing Kamara or Davante Adams, but I couldn't kill myself over that one but looking at doesn't help it feel better. The rest of the season I hit the injury bug hit my team like the swine flu as I lost not of my defensive leaders Nick Vigil, Leonard Floyd, Nicholson, and traded Blake Martinez ( who was my break out player that proved me right) for Brandon Cooks and my soft WR core.

I've finally learned after years and years of playing not to drown in the " why didn't I play him" or " he was supposed have a small week". Especially in IDP you have to be willing to except that some guys will have better days than other. That why Buck and I go so in depth with all of our notes and tape reviews. We want you all to hit week after week in lineups and waivers with our help. I have played golf all of my life since the age of 5 and over the years I used to get so mad if I hit one bad shot and it would throw off the rest of my round. Through the years I finally realized that you are going to hit a few bad balls and regret the swing but you have to move on to finish strong. The same can be said for fantasy football, you may set on bad lineup or regret a swing on a waiver pick up but you have to forget it and move forward and keep moving towards the championship.

Each year there are players you hit on, who are called sleepers, and players you miss on. It’s always a good idea to do a reconciliation, whether that be with your finances or your fantasy team. Some names of note that I had higher than the crowd were Tre’Davious White, Adoree’ Jackson and Reshad Jones. The players I questioned going into the season were Wesley Woodyard, Ramon Humber, and Jon Bostic. Below I will show you the process and strategies that I implement when managing my fantasy teams.

It’s always better to review weekly finishes for players that you missed on and take notes on some of the pitfalls or narratives that you find yourself in throughout the season. I don’t care much for the end of season (EOS) or pre-season ranks as I do week-to-week because performances from Julio Jones are heavily discounted at the EOS. Why is this, because he may have scored a ton of points in few games that gave him relevance. I try to avoid boom or bust weekly players because I need them every week and I prefer to pair consistency with volatility.

Wesley Woodyard

Wesley Woodyard is a player that struggled the past two seasons in Tennessee. I was considering his fantasy potential as dead-to-right in the format that I play in. This being a start two linebackers and two defensive flexes for his potential play week-to-week in an auction league. I spent most of my money on offensive players because they score higher, raising my overall score.

His best season was in 2012, where he finished with 73 solo tackles, 44 assisted tackles in 15 games! He became a Titan in 2014. He had not finished with more than 54 tackles in the past three years and this lead me to believe he would lose potential tackles to Avery Williamson. This season wasn’t in Williamson’s favor. Woodyard is currently 31 years and poised for another great campaign in his 2018 season.

It makes me sick that I dropped him before the season even started for Preston Brown/Avery Williamson and a tough competitor picked him up after Week 1. I want to give a big shout out to Joe Daugherty for beating me to the punch and trusting his gut! He finished the season with these top 25 finishes:

Week 1 – 21st

Week 3 – 17th

Week 6 – 7th

Week 9 – 6th

Week 10 – 18th

Week 12 – 11th

Week 14 – 16th

Week 15 – 5th

Week 16 – 13th

Jon Bostic

I wrote off Jon Bostic because of his inability to be fantasy relevant on two previous teams; the Bears and the Patriots. Bostic started the season with the Colts and has played on three teams by the age of 26. Most of his fantasy seasons are volatile and I discounted this for consistency. Bostic finished the season at 42nd in his position. His stat line includes 57 solo tackles, 40 assisted tackles, 1 sack, 3 pass break ups, and a fumble recovery. He finished the season on IR and we could assume he would have placed higher. In 2016, he collected 2 combined tackles – 1 solo and 1 assist in 11 games. I considered him a career special teamer and expect the Colts to cut or replace him with one of their early draft picks.

His top 25 place finishes include:

Week 3 – 6th

Week 4 – 19th

Week 8 – 8th

Week 9 – 19th

His last fantasy relevant season was in 2014 with 83 combined tackles, no sacks, no interceptions, no fumble recoveries. This stat line pretty much sums up my thoughts on him.

Ramon Humber

Humber has accrued 210 tackles in 9 seasons as a professional athlete. He finished outside of start-able linebackers in 2017 and 52nd overall. Much like Bostic, he has played for 3 franchises but only finished three seasons with 16 games as a starter. He is currently thirty years old and I expected Matt Milano to fill this position sometime during the season. This was the case but both found playing time in many of the same games. Humber ran a 4.67 40-yard dash at the combine, slower than most NFL linebackers. The lack of production and slow 40 lead me to believe he would just be a flash in the pan. Although he finished with a decent season, I stand firm on Humber as a situational, weekly start at best going forward. In 2017, he finished with 160 points, 60 solo tackles, 29 assisted tackles, a sack, a pass break up and a forced fumble. Here are his top 25 weekly finishes for the year:

Week 1 – 9th

Week 2 – 16th

Week 3 – 21st

Week 10 – 12th

I noticed that Paul picked him up in a league that we both play in week 1 after Allen Robinson went down for the year. Paul dropped him by week 5 when he fell out of fantasy relevance. Humber’s best season was in 2014 where he finished with 38 solo tackles, 12 assisted tackles and a sack in 13 games.

Lessons Learned

I’m not saying I knew where everyone would finish at their respective positions but I was not surprised by many players finishing at their floors or ceilings. Floors are the lowest possible expectations whereas ceilings are their upper most fantasy expectations. At the end of the day, you must trust the homework you put into these guys on a yearly basis. I highly recommend our rookie scouting document or our Premium podcast if you are a dynasty fantasy football player. Over the years you will start to index where these players stand, their potential and their tendencies. The document will include measurables and all our notes throughout the off-season, leading up to the NFL draft. Our Premium podcast breaks down tendencies and where we stand on these Individual Defensive Players in their respective positions.