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Our party has been accused of fooling the public by calling tax increases revenue enhancement. Not so. No one was fooled. -- J. Danforth Quayle, V.P., The Quayle Conjecture

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A Paradox? Leading economists and climate scientists advocate a CO 2 tax Few US politicians mention a CO 2 tax Meanwhile, the carbon offset (and credit) industry allows people to voluntarily pay more

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Study 1: Methods Suppose you are purchasing a round trip flight from Los Angeles to New York city, and you are debating between two tickets, one of which includes a carbon tax [offset]. You are debating between the following two tickets, which are otherwise identical. Which would you choose? Ticket ATicket B $ round trip ticket includes a carbon tax [offset] $ round trip ticket

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How strongly would you prefer Ticket A or Ticket B? (-2 = Strongly Prefer B to +2 = Strongly Prefer A) Do you think the carbon tax [offset] included in Ticket A should be made mandatory for all airline tickets sold in the US? (-3 = Definitely Not to 3 = Definitely) Study 1: Methods

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Study 1: Discussion Effect of labeling depended on political affiliation Little is known about the cognitive or affective processes driving attribute framing effects In Study 2, we explored the cognitive mechanisms underlying preference construction

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Query Theory (Johnson et al., 2007) Preferences constructed from memory Series of mental queries for and against each option The resulting balance of evidence determines your preference Order matters: due to output interference, the second query generates less support

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Query Theory: Hypotheses Label will affect ordering of thoughts supporting or opposed to carbon fee Republicans will have immediate, negative thoughts in response to the tax label The ordering will affect the balance of support, in turn predicting choices

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Study 2: Number of Thoughts Participants listed 2.7 thoughts (SD = 1.4) No effect of party or frame

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Thought Examples good for the environment carbon offset is not that much more than regular ticket what does the extra money do to offset the carbon

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Thought Examples we are taxed too much I don't want to pay additional tax

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Thought Examples Why would I ever pay extra for this? I really don't care about a 'carbon tax' If it's the same thing, get rid of the tax The government needs to stop taxing us randomly I will be old or dead by the time this world has an energy crisis And by that i mean a huge one where we are all f***ed This is a ridiculous thought to have

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Thought Examples tree huggers how do I really know which one has carbon emissions? save the world

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Study 1 Fee Description The following questions will ask you to choose between two products, one of which includes paying for carbon emissions. As you may know, carbon dioxide emissions are produced by many human activities, such as driving, flying, or using electricity. According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), an international panel of credible scientists who study the issue, these carbon emissions contribute to global warming. The carbon you produce can be balanced out through measures such as planting trees, which absorb carbon, or funding alternative energy sources, which reduces reliance on polluting energy sources such as coal. The goal of a carbon tax, which may or may not be mandatory, is therefore to fund these efforts and ensure that the price of an activity reflects the true cost to society. [The goal of a carbon offset, which may or may not be mandatory, is therefore to make an activity carbon neutral -- meaning that there is no net contribution to global warming.] We would like you to tell us your preference for products in which one may address the issue, removing the amount of carbon that you would contribute by using the product. We are interested in your opinions, that is your best guess of what you would do if you really faced these choices. Note that all prices and costs in the following questions are actual, real world prices and costs.

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Study 2 Fee Description The following questions will ask you to choose between two products, both of which cause some carbon emissions, but only one of which includes payment for compensating those emissions. As you may know, carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions are produced by many human activities, such as driving, flying, or using electricity. According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), an international panel of credible scientists who study the issue, these carbon emissions contribute to global warming. The carbon you produce can be balanced out through measures such as funding alternative energy sources (which reduces reliance on polluting energy sources such as coal), or carbon sequestration (which traps greenhouse gases so they do not enter the atmosphere). The goal of a carbon tax [offset] is therefore to fund these activities and ensure that the cost of an activity reflects its true cost to society. Policymakers are considering a mandatory carbon tax [offset] program which would raise the cost of certain products and services but make these activities carbon neutral through reputable measures such as those described above. We would like you to tell us your preferences for products which do or do not include a carbon tax [offset]. We are interested in your opinions, that is your best guess of what you would do if you really faced these choices. Note that all prices and costs in the following questions are actual, real world prices and costs.

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Computing Order of Thoughts Order calculated as the Standardized Median Rank Difference (SMRD) SMRD = 2(MR o –MR s )/n MR o = median rank of aspects opposed to the more expensive option in the list of aspects MR s = median rank of aspects supporting the less expensive option in the list of aspects n = total number of aspects listed SMRD scores vary from +1 (supportive thoughts first) to -1 (opposed thoughts first)