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Trading DiaryJanuary 20, 2003

These extracts from my daily trading diary are
intended to illustrate the techniques used in short-term trading
and should not be interpreted as investment advice. Full terms
and conditions can be found at Terms
of Use.

US Dollar weakens
The euro rose to a three-year high against the dollar, reaching
$1.068 in thin trading.

Gold
New York: Spot gold eased 50 cents to $US 355.80

ASX Australia

The All Ordinaries completed a short-term double top, breaking
below 3023 before rallying back to close at 3028 on average
volume.
The index ranges between 2915 and 3050, forming a base.
Slow Stochastic (20,3,3) is below its signal line; MACD
(26,12,9) has crossed below its signal line; Twiggs Money Flow
is neutral.

Australia & NZ Bank [ANZ]
Last covered on
November 08, 2002.
After a long stage 2 up-trend ANZ formed a stage 3 top in the
form of a descending triangle (Note the double bottoms [W] -
strong bull signals in an up-trend - and the false breaks of
the trend channel at [f]). The bearish triangle pattern was
confirmed when price respected the lower trendline at 5.

The stock has, so far, held above support at 17.00. If Twiggs
Money Flow breaks below the triangle on the indicator slot,
this will signal weakness and that a break below 17.00 may be
imminent.

Relative Strength (price ratio: xao) and MACD are both
weakening.

The Equivolume chart shows stronger volume when price is
falling than on the rallies.
Apart from false breaks at [2], [4] and [7], price has
respected the 17.00 support level (Note that the double
bottoms are not as reliable in a top or in a down-trend).

Because of the false breaks it will be safer to wait, if ANZ
again breaks below 17.00, and enter short when price respects
the level from below.
Watch for a dry-up of volume, and daily range, on a short
duration counter-rally.

Man is man because he is free to operate
within the framework of his destiny. He is free to
deliberate,
to make decisions, and tochoose between alternatives. He is distinguished from
animals by his freedom
to do evil or to do good and to walk the high road of
beauty or tread the low road of ugly degeneracy.