Monday, May 27

Wrong

This is the title to a book I have just read by David H Freedman, who is a research journalist and who outlines why he thinks experts keep failing us.

The book is a good read, mostly comprising of an uncommon common sense approach as to when not to trust the experts and how to disseminate useful information.

Here are some extracts:

Characteristics of less trustworthy expert advice
1. It's simplistic, universally appealing and definitive
2. The research findings are supported by either smaller studies or only correlated from animal studies
3. It's groundbreaking
4. It's pushed by people or organisations that stand to benefit from its acceptance

Characteristics of more trustworthy advice
1. It doesn't trip the previous alarms
2. It's a negative finding
3. It's heavy on qualifying statements
4. Its candid about refutable evidence
5. It provides some context for the research
6. It provides perspective

Conclusion

None of this is particularly earth shattering but it is refreshingly frank and well measured in providing principals that help us sort out the wheat from the chaffs - from the mountain of information that bombards us on a daily basis.

Often it is best to test out a particular theory or revelation and see how it pans out over time. Unfortunately, experts for the rather obvious right and wrong moral issues, a lot of the experts who offer advice these days are plainly wrong, including new so called ground breaking discoveries in all fields of endeavour.

As usual that is not the problem of the science on the data but rather human nature which cannot be relied upon to uphold integrity.

4 comments:

In every deliberation, we must consider the impact of our decisions on the next seven generations. - Iroquois proverbIn my opinion much of the behavior we witness today is based on arrogance concomitant with a lack of any spiritual belief. The simple idea of committing to stewardship of our environment, both physical and financial, is an excellent formula for ensuring the well being of those who don't yet have a voice about the world we will leave them.

Hi Susan Well said and quoted - it’s incumbent on us to leave a legacy for future generations – who in turn then can have pride in their ancestry. Unfortunately more oft than not, that’s not the case, but nevertheless we also have some wonderful examples. I would not have liked to have lived a few hundred years ago unless I was part of the privileged few!! Best wishes

Further, expertise is often limited within a field. Presumptions often do not transfer.Two things that I like to remind electricians of (when I'm around them) to show them that they don't know as much about electricity as they like to think:the hole theory of current, and the positron.

Succinctly, the electron travel theory of current is prevalent here; that an atom swaps out an electron from the valency ring of a neighboring atom, and on through a chain of such. Looking at this, you can see that current would travel from negative to positive were this true.It's actually the hole in the valency ring that travels; much like an oar shoves water behind it.

A positron is what happens when an electron gains a positive charge (and that's typically the way I predicate the inquiry). Its spin reverses, which knocks it backward in time just a hair; at which time it's a positron.If you look at the diagrams, you'll see that the very same instance of an electron often appears in two discrete instances at the same point in time. It has to.

Not that it weighs heavily in the application of electrical circuits (for the most past); which poses certain questions about expertise as a benefit.

Interesting – it can also relate o to the quantum field theory which is of great interest to me (eg : the quantum entanglement theory or duality principle where a particle becomes a wave then reverts to a particle. The two parts remain always linked through time and space. But as you say, it also relates in other fields, such as in a solid-state theory- practical applications. Best wishes

About Me

I have worked in the roles as Company Secretary or Divisional financial executive with larger Australian based multinational companies before changing careers in favour of sales and marketing for the latter 12 years of business life.
My particular interests include corporate social responsibility, ethics and research into more sustainable business practices.
I am a fellow of CPA Australia and an Associate member of the Governance Institute of Australia which was previously called the Chartered Secretaries Australia. I am chairman of the Malawi Support group who are a small group of catholic parishioners who raise funds to support a sister parish in Malawi.