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Joe Dimaggio Thread: The Screenplay Topic

(Enter Zubinsum on a segway with a starbucks beverage in one hand)Zube: Hey, guyz! Joe D's streak is remarkable, but not overly so. The likelihood of a streak like that happening to date is about 1 in 6.Gregsimon: Not only is the streak remarkable, but so is Joe D!Dahsdebater: It was luck!Rasluggo: The feat was extraordinary!(Enter Boogerlips in a yellow spacesuit carrying a spiderman lunchbox)Boogerlips: I don't find the feat extraordinary. Extraordinary in that it happened maybe, but neither the player nor the streak's effect on wins was extraordinary. Just like if I was struck by lightning twice...the event would remarkable, but neither me nor its effect on the world would be so.Greg: AgreedRasluggo: Joe D had skills and intelligence that don't show up in statistics that allowed him to hit the streak!Markeking: Joe D hit for a high AVG and didn't draw many walks, making him a good candidate for a streak, but if thats all it took, then it would have been done already by Ichiro and others.Zube: Actually, if thats all it took, there'd be about a 1 in 6 chance that someone else could have done it.Mattedesa: Joe D's selfishness helped the streak!Joe Dimaggio: I ain't hittin no sac fly! Sac flies are for *******.FishNasty: Here is a list of players that had hitting streaks of 30 games or more. They are all great players, therefore it takes skill to get a streak. And therefore, Joe D had nearly twice the skill that the mere 30 gamers had.Socrates: ?Just4Me: A site simulated history 10,000 times. There was always a long streak in the simulations, 39 being the shortest, 109 being the longest. Duffy and Keeler were the most occuring record holders with over 500 each. Ty Cobb had nearly 300. Joe D had 28.Stan Musial: Joe D was the best I ever saw.(Enter Tracyr. Steps out of '88 Trans Am wearing a headband and jean shorts)Tracyr: Joe D banged Marilyn MonroeBoog: Easily his most impressive achievment!(Cue subject change)Tracyr: Joe D's streak wasn't that impressive because pitchers didn't K that many hitters.Boog: That proves the hitter wasn't that impressive, but the streak still has its set impressiveness regardless or the era it occurred in. Outs are outs after all.Tracyr: Ya, but it was easier to get a high batting average back then because there weren't no strikeouts.Boog: I'm not sure I agree with that either. League averages in 1941 are pretty similar to modern ones and historical ones, but regardless of whether or not it was easy or hard to get his .406 AVG because of the era, that doesn't explain how easy or hard or impressive spreading those hits out over 56 games was.Tracyr: Its harder to achieve the streak today because of the strikouts.Boog: The league AVG's and OBP's were the same then as they are today despite the K difference.Tracyr: Both leagues had pitchers back then. If you replace the pitchers in one league with hitter, the AVG and OBP go up.Boog: Very well then. Lets say it was easier for Joe D to hit .406 in 1941. That means he wasn't terribly remarkable, but we both originally agreed on that anyway. The next, and more important question is given the .406 AVG, how did he achieve the streak?(Enter JohnGPF wearing 1/2 inch thick glasses and a tuxedo t-shirt)(after droning on and on about BABIP...)JohnGPF: ...modern players can't achieve a 56 game streak because of strikeouts and lack of power in the types of hitters who would otherwise have a shot...Socrates: ?Boog: I'm not sure why we are comparing Joe D to modern players, but I'll go with it for a moment...so you're saying a modern player who has similar hits/PA and similar quantity of PAs would have a lesser chance to hit a 56 gm streak because of K's and power?GPF: ...i already 'splained it. the skill set to hit in 56 str8 games is different than the skills needed to hit .400 over the same period...Rob Frazer: Classic, John! Classic!WIFSports Chorus: Classic, John! Classic!Boog: Huh? Hits/pa and quanitity of PAs are the only variables that apply to the likelihood of such a streak. Not K's, not power, nor anything else.(cue subject change)GPF: ...computer simulations are different than real life...Socrates: ?Boog: Outs are outs and hits are hits. Out type and hit type are irrelevant both in real life and in a simulation. .4hits/pa is .4hits/pa is .4hits/pa.GPF: ...you refuse to consider this variable...if dimaggio didn't have HR power he would not have achieved his streak...Boog: If he didn't have HR power, not only would he not have achieved his streak, he wouldn't have had a .406 AVG either.GPF: ...plenty of non-power guys hit .406...Boog: You're talking in circles. Your original point was that not all .406 hits/pa are te same and therefore don't have the same chance to chieve the streak.GPF: ...my original point was no such thing. future streaks and AVG are different than past ones. if it was only about hit/pa probability it would have happened again by now...Zube: Actually its about a 1 in 6 probability that someone other than Joe D would have a similar streak.Boog: You keep repeating what I'm saying and telling me it's different. You DO believe some .4hits/pa are different than others. Thats what your 'hits/pa' comment says...somehow Joe D masterfully divided his hits evenly amongst the games in a way that only he is capable of. No else could choose when to get hits like he could.Markeking: Hey, if I take the last part of Boog's statement out of context, it'll mess everything up! Hey, everybody! Boogerlips thinks Joe D had magic powers to spread out his hits and even choose when to get them!GPF: ...thats silly...Tracyr: See! He's dumb!Boog: Um...thats the opposite of what I think.WIFSports Chorus: Oh...

*INTERMISSION*

Tracyr: You likes simbaseballs too much, Boogers. You need more real baseballs. Real baseballs' where you get edjumucated.Boog: Cards/Cubs double header tonight. Twice the edjumacation!....so nobody has given me a variable that leads to a 56 game hitting streak other than hits/pa and quantity of PAs thats at least somewhat tangible.Tracyr: Selfishness!Boog: Thats not tangible.Spotsell: Desire! Pete Rose and Joe D baby!Boog: Thankyou, but that doesn't seem tangible either.Tracyr: He didn't walk or strikeout much and he had power and good baserunning skills.Boog: Thats a good formula for having a high hits/pa rate, but no one is debating how to create a high hits/pa rate. The question at hand is given the high hits/pa rate, why does one guy get a huge streak but no one else does?Spotsell: I once took a crap and it came out like ribbon candy.Rob: Joe D knew all the pitchers exceptionally well.Boog: I'm not sure how much I buy his knowledge of pitchers being much greater than any of the 30 game hit streak guys, but if he did, then that would be a tangible variable. Knowing every pitcher for 56 straight days, would help avoid an 0-fer.Markeking: Ted Willaims drew lots of walks!Socrates: ?GPF: ...booger's non-argument appears to be based around hitters with the same hit/pa rate having the same chance of achieving the streak...Boog: Hey, thats right!Rob: Joe only struck out 13 times that season!(Boogerlips shoots himself with a finger-gun)GPF: ...ya, strikeouts!WIFSports Chorus: Strikeouts is what it is!!!(Boogerlips replaces himself with a booger-doll [also dressed in a yellow space suit holding a spiderman lunch box] that repeats ".4hits/pa is .4hits/pa is .4hits/pa"...)Boogerlips-doll: .4hits/pa is .4hits/pa is .4hits/pa...GPF: ...pete rose struck out just once every 36 ABs, and got a bunt hit once, proving his selfishness variable...Spotsell: Yay, Pete Rose! Pete Rose once took a crap and it came out like brown roses!Zube: I agree with Boog. It doesn't matter how he achieved the .4hits/pa, once it is achieved, all hitters have the same chance at the streak. You all seem to be focused on predictive stats, while Booger is looking at it from a descriptive view.GPF: ...descriptive stats describe the past. predictive stats predict the future...WIFSports Chorus: Classic, John! Classic!Markeking: Hey! I found out that its actually a 43% chance likelihood of such a streak happening, not 17%.Zube: No. its 17%Mark: Nuh-uh.Zube: Yes-huh.(Markeking and Zubinsum do a dungeons and dragons battle off to the side to determine who is right...)Phantom23: Ted Willaims drew lots of walks! Joe D didnt strike out!Rob Frazor: Yes!Boogerlips-doll: .4hit/pa is .4hits/pa is .4hits/pa...Ncmusician: Here's one way to look at it. If a hitter has exactly 4 PAs/gm and a 40% chance of getting a hit every time up, he'd have a .04% chance of gitten'er done.GPF: ...can anyone calculate the odds of a hitter being guarunteed 4 PAs per game and exactly a 40% chance of succes in each AB?Gregsimon: Classic, John! Classic!WIFSports Chorus: Classic, John! Classic!Spotsell: 4 was chosen for ease of calculation, Don't be obtuse.Tracyr: Hey! I found out that there were 5000 56 game spans of .408 AVG's or better. Joe D is the man!Zube: AVG isn't important. Hits/PA is.Tracyr: You don't know how to calculate Hits/PA.Zube: Yes-huh.Tracyr: Nuh-uh.(Tracyr and Zubinsum do a dramatization of a World of Warcraft battle off to the side to determine who is right...)Gregsimon: Hey, Booger! You're a Joe D hater!Boogerlips-doll: .4hits/pa is .4hits/pa is .4hits/pa...

*Brief Interlude*

GPF: ...i gave this thread a rest for a couple days, but johnny dots is back baby! I have no idea what anybody else was talking about before, but I want to talk about predicting future streaks. who wants some?(silence)Cricket: Chirp(silence)GPF: ...well, if you want to know the chance of something happening again, you need to understand how it happened to start with...when one argues with he that is not here, he confuses he who is here...he who doesn't control his anger allows his anger to control him...if something is thrown up eventually it must......Yogi Berra: If you don't have JohnGPF in your thread, thats why you need him.Socrates: ?Sherlock Holmes: Arguing about this is like debating whether water is wet or not. It's one of the most remarkable accomplishments in the history of sports! The discussion should end with that.Zube: Well, so be it. Segway away!! (drives off on segway)Boogerlips-doll: .4hits/pa is .4hits/pa is .4hits/pa...Tracyr: Somebody shut that ****ing doll up! (drives off in trans am running over boogerlips-doll)GPF: ...good, its time for my old-guy nap anyways...i think later i'll set burning poo-bags on the hallmark channel hq's front doorstep and leave a note demanding the reinstatement of matlock reruns...(heads off to the undisclosed location of the gpf-cave)Socrates: !

I think you're clearly missing some of the Bosox/Yankee flavor to the discussion. I suggest adding Billy Barty as BosuxBill and Mudbone as MikeT23 to add some animosity. You could also add the frozen head of Ted Williams and external shots of Marilyn Monroe's crypt to add gravitas.

Just because I mentioned Joe D's name once (after all he WAS the one who accomplished the feat) does not in any way, shape or form translate into me saying Joe D was as remarkable as the streak.

In fact my second line has been reduced to a simple "agreed".

The editors chose to leave out the bulk of the long-winded reply, but I actually hit on a few points:

1) Joe's career stats indicate he was one of the best hitters to play the game

2) Ted Williams was a better hitter IMO

3) I am simply pointing out that the occurance is indeed spectacular. (hence the "agreed" line I was graciously given)

4) The list of hitters who have had streaks of 30 games or more includes many mediocre-at-best hitters, B Santiago & S Alomar Jr for example (Any appearance of bias towards catchers is purely coincidental)

5) #4 combined with the list having no T Williams, L Gehrig, or B Ruth we can conclude that the streak itself is certainly no indicator of greatness.