Mike Clay

Dynasty Rankings

Dynasty Ranks: Quarterbacks

Although the NFL draft is still a month and a half away, dynasty owners are already chomping at the bit to get a leg up on the competition for the 2013 season. With combine, draft, free agency, and training camp season scattered across the winter, spring, and summer months, the NFL is a year-round event. Fantasy football has followed suit, with dynasty-league commissioners spreading owner responsibilities across the entire offseason.

The legendary Chris Wesseling has, of course, handled the Rotoworld dynasty rankings for years, but he recently moved on to greener…err…equally-green pastures. I’ll do my best to fill his gigantic shoes with my first run at 2013 dynasty rankings.

Before I get started, I wanted to briefly discuss my philosophy. If you’re familiar with my work, you know I come from ProFootballFocus.com. In turn, I’ve essentially done enough analytical analysis to make the casual football fan’s head spin off their shoulders.

I won’t be doing that here.

Although we can learn a lot about a player’s abilities through analytics, dynasty rankings have a strong subjective nature. The ever-important “How good is this player?” question is only the tip of the iceberg. There’s a long list of follow-up questions to be answered: “How much longer will this player be in the league?” “Does the current coaching scheme support long-term success?” “How much of a threat for playing time are the players ahead/behind him on the depth chart?” The list goes on and on.

Like anyone else creating dynasty rankings, I’m placing a significant amount of weight in the ‘player skill’ and ‘age/experience’ categories. The rankings aren’t necessarily based on a three-year or five-year window. Rather, I put myself in the shoes of a league owner. If I’m drafting a team today, how can I maximize both short and long-term success?

Without further ado, let’s kick this thing off with the ever-important quarterback position.

Quarterback

It’s early in fantasy draft season, but smart owners are already fully aware of the unprecedented amount of depth at the quarterback position. That goes for both redraft and dynasty leagues.

If you’re a savvy fantasy owner, noticing depth at a position is a major advantage. It allows you to focus on shallower positions earlier in your draft, waiting until later to attack the position in question. In 2013 start-up dynasty leagues, you should be waiting quite some time before selecting your first quarterback.

Note: Each player age listed is as of September 1, 2013, which will be near Week 1 of the upcoming season. The draft year and round is shown for each quarterback.

Rodgers is almost in a class of his own at the position, but the new-found depth/youth movement at the position has brought his value back to earth a bit. He’ll be closing in on 30 when the 2013 season begins, which means he should have, at least, five or six more years of superstar production left in the tank. There’s no one else I’d rather have at the position…Newton’s 2012 season was one of two halves. Through eight weeks, a sophomore slump was in full effect with the Carolina offense averaging a pathetic 1.7 offensive touchdowns-per-game. The Panthers improved that mark to 3.1 the rest of the way, which, extrapolated over the entire season, would’ve ranked as the league’s third-highest mark. With Newton under center, Carolina has quietly had one of the league’s top offenses over the last two seasons. With improvements at the wide receiver position, it’s possible we haven’t yet seen Newton’s best work.

The Luck vs. RGIII debate rolls on. In one corner we have the pass-first quarterback in an improving offense who should make sophomore-season leaps with a more conservative approach. In the other corner, we have the read-option/scramble-heavy quarterback who already has an injury red flag attached to his name, but has proven to be the more-productive of the two on a per-play basis. Griffin has a ton of fantasy appeal, but I’m building my franchise around the guy taking fewer hits, especially since he arguably has the same amount of upside.

After breakout 2012 campaigns, Wilson and Kaepernick are locked in as top-10 dynasty quarterback options. After a slow start, Wilson had the Seattle offense among the league’s elite during the second half of the season. They averaged a remarkable 3.5 offensive scores-per-game from Week 8 on. Kaepernick didn’t take over as starter until mid-season, but was so good that the 49ers were confident in him enough to trade Alex Smith to the Chiefs. Both quarterbacks have added fantasy value thanks to the ability to put up yardage and touchdowns with their legs.

I feel like I’m a bit lower than I should be on perennial fantasy studs Brady and Brees, but the emergence of the under-26 club in 2012 has me devaluing the older guys. Brees is 34, but signed an extension through 2016 last offseason. Brady’s recent extension takes him through 2017. Because they’re still elite redraft options and all but locked into a starting job for the next few seasons, they get the edge over the likes of Ryan and Stafford. Still, if I’m building my team for the long-term, I’m going with players who will rival them in 2012 and have a longer shelf life (Luck, Wilson, Kaepernick).

After a massively-productive start to the 2012 season, Ryan finally had the looks of an elite fantasy quarterback. He tailed off as the year progressed, however, sliding back in as a better real-life quarterback than he is fantasy asset. Still, with Julio Jones and Roddy White catching his passes in the Atlanta’s new, pass-first scheme, Ryan remains locked in as decent QB1 option…One year after entering the “elite” conversation in fantasy circles, Stafford took a big step back in 2012. Inconsistent accuracy and questionable decision-making have analysts wondering if Detroit’s pass-heavy offense and Calvin Johnson are making an average quarterback look like a good one. Regardless, Johnson isn’t going anywhere, Stafford will only be 25-years-old, and there’s no sign Detroit is moving away from the pass.

Roethlisberger hasn’t played a full 16-game season since 2008. Although that’s certainly a concern, the fact remains that he consistently puts up QB1 production when healthy. In fact, he finished the 2012 season as the No. 21 scoring quarterback, but was No. 11 in fantasy points-per-game…After finishing 2011 as fantasy’s No. 6 quarterback, Manning regressed to No. 17 during a disappointing 2012 season. A healthy Hakeem Nicks and emerging Rueben Randle will help his rebound chances in 2013, but little brother is closing in on 33 years-old. He’s no more than a borderline QB1 in 12-team leagues.

I have Romo ranked as the top backup quarterback in your standard 12-team leagues, but he’s right there with Roethlisberger and Manning. Between the three, Romo is usually the guy you’d want for one game, but he’s also the oldest. It’s not crazy to think Dallas could begin grooming a long-term replacement for Romo this year…The older Manning brother likely has another year or two left in the tank, but considering his age (about to turn 37) and recent health issues, there’s reason to be concerned if he’s your top quarterback option. Start him confidently in 2012, but make sure you have a capable backup.

Flacco may have peaked during the Raven’s 2012 playoff run, but he makes the list as a decent QB2 option for a variety of reasons. He’s on a great team, is still only 28-years-old, and is about to get a long-term commitment from his team. He doesn’t have the ceiling of a Philip Rivers or Michael Vick, but there’s nothing wrong with wanting a solid player over a lottery ticket for bye weeks and short-term injuries…Tannehill was better on tape than in the boxscore during his rookie season. It certainly didn’t help that he had one of the worst set of pass-catchers in the league, and that the team scored an unsustainably high number of their touchdowns on the ground. At least prior to the draft, Tannehill is the most-intriguing, young player on the 12-team-league QB2 list…and makes for a borderline starter in deeper formats.

A few years ago, I thought Rivers was one of the best quarterbacks in football. Whoops. He’s lost of a lot of his weapons due to free agency (which includes some GM incompetence) and injury over the past few seasons, but his overall effectiveness has certainly underwhelmed. He has QB1 upside, but at age 31, we’ve likely already seen his best work…Vick is definitely a wild card, but with Chip Kelly in town, he has major upside during, at least, the upcoming season. His age (will be 33), declining play, and injury resume are concerns, but his high ceiling gives him a slight edge on the rest of our fourth tier.

Dalton isn’t overly exciting on paper, but he quietly finished as the No. 12 fantasy quarterback in 2012. In fact, at one point, the Bengals were a top-five team in offensive scoring. As long as A.J. Green is in the equation, 25 total touchdowns will be in reach for Dalton…Bradford had a promising rookie season in 2010 before suffering through an injury-plagued 2011 campaign. The Ram’s front office gave him the ultimate vote of confidence by essentially trading Robert Griffin III for draft picks prior to what turned out to be a decent 2012 season for Bradford, especially later in the year. I think Bradford will top out as an average quarterback, but with what should be the best group of offensive weapons he’s had so far in his career, 2013 is finally a make-or-break year.

Freeman actually threw for 4,000 yards and finished as the No. 13 fantasy quarterback in 2012, but there are already doubts that he has a future as a starting quarterback at the NFL. Still just 25-years-old, there’s some upside here, but he’s not going to be an elite passer and his carries are progressively declining…Outside of Brandon Marshall, Cutler didn’t have much to work with in terms of offensive weapons in 2012. Chicago figures to finally exterminate what’s left of the Mike Martz stank by adding their first strong pass-catching tight end since Greg Olsen this offseason. Add that to an emerging Alshon Jeffery and a new coaching regime under Marc Trestman, and there is some reason for optimism; just not enough to put him in the QB1 conversation.

Although the NFL draft is still a month and a half away, dynasty owners are already chomping at the bit to get a leg up on the competition for the 2013 season. With combine, draft, free agency, and training camp season scattered across the winter, spring, and summer months, the NFL is a year-round event. Fantasy football has followed suit, with dynasty-league commissioners spreading owner responsibilities across the entire offseason.

The legendary Chris Wesseling has, of course, handled the Rotoworld dynasty rankings for years, but he recently moved on to greener…err…equally-green pastures. I’ll do my best to fill his gigantic shoes with my first run at 2013 dynasty rankings.

Before I get started, I wanted to briefly discuss my philosophy. If you’re familiar with my work, you know I come from ProFootballFocus.com. In turn, I’ve essentially done enough analytical analysis to make the casual football fan’s head spin off their shoulders.

I won’t be doing that here.

Although we can learn a lot about a player’s abilities through analytics, dynasty rankings have a strong subjective nature. The ever-important “How good is this player?” question is only the tip of the iceberg. There’s a long list of follow-up questions to be answered: “How much longer will this player be in the league?” “Does the current coaching scheme support long-term success?” “How much of a threat for playing time are the players ahead/behind him on the depth chart?” The list goes on and on.

Like anyone else creating dynasty rankings, I’m placing a significant amount of weight in the ‘player skill’ and ‘age/experience’ categories. The rankings aren’t necessarily based on a three-year or five-year window. Rather, I put myself in the shoes of a league owner. If I’m drafting a team today, how can I maximize both short and long-term success?

Without further ado, let’s kick this thing off with the ever-important quarterback position.

Quarterback

It’s early in fantasy draft season, but smart owners are already fully aware of the unprecedented amount of depth at the quarterback position. That goes for both redraft and dynasty leagues.

If you’re a savvy fantasy owner, noticing depth at a position is a major advantage. It allows you to focus on shallower positions earlier in your draft, waiting until later to attack the position in question. In 2013 start-up dynasty leagues, you should be waiting quite some time before selecting your first quarterback.

Note: Each player age listed is as of September 1, 2013, which will be near Week 1 of the upcoming season. The draft year and round is shown for each quarterback.

Rodgers is almost in a class of his own at the position, but the new-found depth/youth movement at the position has brought his value back to earth a bit. He’ll be closing in on 30 when the 2013 season begins, which means he should have, at least, five or six more years of superstar production left in the tank. There’s no one else I’d rather have at the position…Newton’s 2012 season was one of two halves. Through eight weeks, a sophomore slump was in full effect with the Carolina offense averaging a pathetic 1.7 offensive touchdowns-per-game. The Panthers improved that mark to 3.1 the rest of the way, which, extrapolated over the entire season, would’ve ranked as the league’s third-highest mark. With Newton under center, Carolina has quietly had one of the league’s top offenses over the last two seasons. With improvements at the wide receiver position, it’s possible we haven’t yet seen Newton’s best work.

The Luck vs. RGIII debate rolls on. In one corner we have the pass-first quarterback in an improving offense who should make sophomore-season leaps with a more conservative approach. In the other corner, we have the read-option/scramble-heavy quarterback who already has an injury red flag attached to his name, but has proven to be the more-productive of the two on a per-play basis. Griffin has a ton of fantasy appeal, but I’m building my franchise around the guy taking fewer hits, especially since he arguably has the same amount of upside.

After breakout 2012 campaigns, Wilson and Kaepernick are locked in as top-10 dynasty quarterback options. After a slow start, Wilson had the Seattle offense among the league’s elite during the second half of the season. They averaged a remarkable 3.5 offensive scores-per-game from Week 8 on. Kaepernick didn’t take over as starter until mid-season, but was so good that the 49ers were confident in him enough to trade Alex Smith to the Chiefs. Both quarterbacks have added fantasy value thanks to the ability to put up yardage and touchdowns with their legs.

I feel like I’m a bit lower than I should be on perennial fantasy studs Brady and Brees, but the emergence of the under-26 club in 2012 has me devaluing the older guys. Brees is 34, but signed an extension through 2016 last offseason. Brady’s recent extension takes him through 2017. Because they’re still elite redraft options and all but locked into a starting job for the next few seasons, they get the edge over the likes of Ryan and Stafford. Still, if I’m building my team for the long-term, I’m going with players who will rival them in 2012 and have a longer shelf life (Luck, Wilson, Kaepernick).

After a massively-productive start to the 2012 season, Ryan finally had the looks of an elite fantasy quarterback. He tailed off as the year progressed, however, sliding back in as a better real-life quarterback than he is fantasy asset. Still, with Julio Jones and Roddy White catching his passes in the Atlanta’s new, pass-first scheme, Ryan remains locked in as decent QB1 option…One year after entering the “elite” conversation in fantasy circles, Stafford took a big step back in 2012. Inconsistent accuracy and questionable decision-making have analysts wondering if Detroit’s pass-heavy offense and Calvin Johnson are making an average quarterback look like a good one. Regardless, Johnson isn’t going anywhere, Stafford will only be 25-years-old, and there’s no sign Detroit is moving away from the pass.

Roethlisberger hasn’t played a full 16-game season since 2008. Although that’s certainly a concern, the fact remains that he consistently puts up QB1 production when healthy. In fact, he finished the 2012 season as the No. 21 scoring quarterback, but was No. 11 in fantasy points-per-game…After finishing 2011 as fantasy’s No. 6 quarterback, Manning regressed to No. 17 during a disappointing 2012 season. A healthy Hakeem Nicks and emerging Rueben Randle will help his rebound chances in 2013, but little brother is closing in on 33 years-old. He’s no more than a borderline QB1 in 12-team leagues.

I have Romo ranked as the top backup quarterback in your standard 12-team leagues, but he’s right there with Roethlisberger and Manning. Between the three, Romo is usually the guy you’d want for one game, but he’s also the oldest. It’s not crazy to think Dallas could begin grooming a long-term replacement for Romo this year…The older Manning brother likely has another year or two left in the tank, but considering his age (about to turn 37) and recent health issues, there’s reason to be concerned if he’s your top quarterback option. Start him confidently in 2012, but make sure you have a capable backup.

Flacco may have peaked during the Raven’s 2012 playoff run, but he makes the list as a decent QB2 option for a variety of reasons. He’s on a great team, is still only 28-years-old, and is about to get a long-term commitment from his team. He doesn’t have the ceiling of a Philip Rivers or Michael Vick, but there’s nothing wrong with wanting a solid player over a lottery ticket for bye weeks and short-term injuries…Tannehill was better on tape than in the boxscore during his rookie season. It certainly didn’t help that he had one of the worst set of pass-catchers in the league, and that the team scored an unsustainably high number of their touchdowns on the ground. At least prior to the draft, Tannehill is the most-intriguing, young player on the 12-team-league QB2 list…and makes for a borderline starter in deeper formats.

A few years ago, I thought Rivers was one of the best quarterbacks in football. Whoops. He’s lost of a lot of his weapons due to free agency (which includes some GM incompetence) and injury over the past few seasons, but his overall effectiveness has certainly underwhelmed. He has QB1 upside, but at age 31, we’ve likely already seen his best work…Vick is definitely a wild card, but with Chip Kelly in town, he has major upside during, at least, the upcoming season. His age (will be 33), declining play, and injury resume are concerns, but his high ceiling gives him a slight edge on the rest of our fourth tier.

Dalton isn’t overly exciting on paper, but he quietly finished as the No. 12 fantasy quarterback in 2012. In fact, at one point, the Bengals were a top-five team in offensive scoring. As long as A.J. Green is in the equation, 25 total touchdowns will be in reach for Dalton…Bradford had a promising rookie season in 2010 before suffering through an injury-plagued 2011 campaign. The Ram’s front office gave him the ultimate vote of confidence by essentially trading Robert Griffin III for draft picks prior to what turned out to be a decent 2012 season for Bradford, especially later in the year. I think Bradford will top out as an average quarterback, but with what should be the best group of offensive weapons he’s had so far in his career, 2013 is finally a make-or-break year.

Freeman actually threw for 4,000 yards and finished as the No. 13 fantasy quarterback in 2012, but there are already doubts that he has a future as a starting quarterback at the NFL. Still just 25-years-old, there’s some upside here, but he’s not going to be an elite passer and his carries are progressively declining…Outside of Brandon Marshall, Cutler didn’t have much to work with in terms of offensive weapons in 2012. Chicago figures to finally exterminate what’s left of the Mike Martz stank by adding their first strong pass-catching tight end since Greg Olsen this offseason. Add that to an emerging Alshon Jeffery and a new coaching regime under Marc Trestman, and there is some reason for optimism; just not enough to put him in the QB1 conversation.

After a promising rookie season on a small sample of snaps, Locker was a popular 2012 breakout candidate. A handful of injuries and underwhelming production now have Tennessee’s 2011 first-round pick on the wrong side of a bust label. The Titans’ projected 2013 Week 1 starter, Locker has enough weapons and does enough with his legs to keep him in the QB2 conversation for now…Traded to Kansas City, Smith is all but locked in as the Chiefs’ 2013 starter. With Andy Reid in control of the offense, there will be no shortage of pass attempts. No longer protected by an elite defense and strong play-action offensive attack, 2013 will tell us if Smith really is a capable NFL starter. His ceiling figures to be a strong QB2 option.

Schaub is closing in on age 32 and, although he’s signed through 2016, there are already rumblings that the team will (or should) be looking to upgrade at the position. Even if he sticks as the starter for a few more years, Houston has adopted an extremely run-heavy attack, capping Schaub’s ceiling…Gabbert’s sophomore-season completion percentage increase was the highest among all rookies over the last five years. Of course, part of that was a product of an awful rookie season performance. There’s still a small chance Gabbert pans out, but he has the looks of a bust.

As ultra-conservative as they come, Ponder has not lived up to expectations after being selected with the No. 12 overall pick of the 2011 draft. He’s the favorite for the Vikings’ Week 1 starting job in 2013, but, to be frank, he’s not very good. It’s a good time to sell…Kolb is one of the league’s most injury prone players, but was strong in limited action during the 2012 season. He’s currently the top dog in the race for the Cardinals’ starting job in 2013…The new regime in Cleveland hasn’t decided which way they’ll go with Weeden, but he figures, at the very least, to be in the mix for the team’s starting job in 2013. Already 29-years-old, however, there’s not much upside here.

Quarterback-needy teams are reportedly eyeing Mallett prior to an April draft weak at the position. Considered to have first-round talent prior to the 2011 draft, there’s a ton of upside here…Foles doesn’t appear to be a fit in new Eagles’ coach Chip Kelly’s plans, but showed enough in limited rookie-season action to warrant a stash in most leagues…Flynn figures to be traded somewhere to compete for a starting gig. We saw his high ceiling in Green Bay back in Week 17 of the 2011 season.

Pryor and Palmer are competing for the Raiders’ starting job in 2013. Palmer is the current favorite, but is closing in on 34 and wasn’t overly impressive this past season. The younger Pryor is the better stash….Moore will be one of the hottest quarterbacks come free agency time, but the odds don’t favor him landing a clear path to a starting job.

Peyton Manning’s primary backup in Denver, Osweiler, a 2012 second-round pick, is a must-stash in all dynasty formats…Cassel will be cut loose by Kansas City, but he’ll latch on somewhere as a competitor for a starting job, or as one of the league’s top No. 2 quarterbacks…Cousins is a must-own as Griffin’s primary backup in Washington. In fact, he may even have to start a few games early in the 2013 season.

With Flacco extended for six years, Taylor is locked in as a backup for at least the next two seasons…Jackson is a better fit than Fitzpatrick for the Bills’ new offense under Doug Marrone…Henne will push Gabbert for the starting job in Jacksonville…McCoy figures to finally find a new home this offseason, but he’ll be a No. 2 wherever he lands…Dixon is a major long-shot for the Eagles’ starting job, but it’s possible if Vick struggles and Foles is traded…It’s possible the cash-strapped Jets will need to lean on Sanchez during the 2013 season…The Vikings figure to add competition for Webb (and Ponder) this offseason…A free agent, Stanton will generate some attention for a No. 2 job…Johnson is a name to watch as a potential backup to Kaepernick in San Francisco.

Harrell will compete with Coleman for the primary backup job behind Rodgers…Campbell and Orton are longshots for realistic opportunities to win a starting job, but both will be among the league’s better No. 2 options…Yates isn’t pushing Schaub just yet in Houston, but the leash is getting shorter on the aged veteran…Davis could get a look if Bradford doesn’t take another step forward…Quinn, Leinart, and Daniel are free agents looking for a chance to compete for a starting job…If Arizona fails to add competition, Hoyer will push Kolb for the starting gig…McElroy is currently atop the Jets’ depth chart, but he’s sure to have competition within a few weeks…Garrard is flirting with the Jets and figures to latch on somewhere as a No. 2…Hasselbeck is next in line if Locker struggles, but he’s closing in on 38-years-old…Skelton and Lindley are no longer realistic candidates for Arizona’s starting job…Tebow figures to require a position change in order to land on a roster…Tolzien is a longshot for the 49ers’ primary backup job.