These sensational clickable-link headlines found on ESPN.com yesterday morning were a far cry from sentiments expressed just five months ago. The Rangers, by all accounts, had a well-balanced team poised to continue its streak of four consecutive seasons with at least 90 wins. The improving health of Neftali Feliz and Joaquim Soria, along with strong 2013 campaigns from Tanner Scheppers and Neal Cotts, led the Rangers to believe they had a deep enough bullpen to allow the team to part ways with closer Joe Nathan earlier in the offseason. The rotation was deep and mostly under team control for several years. On December 26, 2013, Buster Olney published his list of the AL’s top ten lineups, ranking the Rangers number one, and this spring, ESPN released its first ever win-probability forecast, suggesting the Rangers were most likely to finish atop the AL West and third among American league teams in total wins.

On January 10, the Rangers, on paper, had what looked to be a top contender for the American League pennant. If not the top. That day, news broke that Derek Holland had injured his knee after (cough) “tripping over his dog”. A setback for sure, but with Matt Harrison on the comeback trail and Martin Perez on the rise, especially with what was considered by some the AL’s best lineup.

Fast forward to May 14. The Rangers learned that Perez would need Tommy John surgery, and that Harrison’s back troubles would threaten his career. On May 23, Jurickson Profarand Prince Fielder were both reported to be done for the year, compounding the team’s troubles and closing the book on what was surely the worst ten day period in franchise history. We are now at a place where all injuries are viewed through the same Woe-Are-The-Rangers lens. Earlier this week, news that sixth-outfielder Daniel Robertson fractured facial bones after colliding with Alex Rios was treated as if it were yet another crisis indicative of the team’s misfortune.

Suddenly, self-pitying Rangers fans are lamenting the three month loss of Geovanny Soto as if it were a Thurman Munson-esque tragedy. Yes, the same Soto who, playing part-time, “impressively” raised his batting average from .196 in 2012, to .245 in 2013.

For now, the temporary, concentrated, and powerful dose of bad luck should be seen as just temporary, and fans should take a step back and consider what the team has, instead of only what is hasn’t.

Yes, some players are moving further away from their prime: Beltre and possibly Fielder.
Some are moving closer: Profar, Leonys Martin, Rougned Odor, Michael Choice.
Some will continue to be in the midst of their prime: Choo, Andrus.

Holland will soon assume the number two slot in the rotation after Yu Darvish, giving the team a one-two punch at the top of the rotation as formidable as any in Baseball. Still, the bad news compels us to think about the potential darkness cast by the aging Beltre and Fielder, while at the same time leading us to ignore the promising futures of some of the Game’s top prospects (Fielder, by the way, was only 29 on opening day). Any current instance of bad news perpetuates and reinforces other negative thoughts, singling out a negative detail and exclusively dwelling on it so that all reality becomes negative. Psychologists refer to this line of thinking as Cognitive Distortion. Bob Nightengale of USA Today recently wrote, “You just don’t replace one of the premier power hitters in the game and still contend”, implying that the Rangers weren’t contenders before adding Fielder. His statement also implies that Fielder’s contributions thus far were akin to those of a premier power hitter. Neither assumption is true. Although the Rangers previously had Ian Kinsler, the team also a positionless Profar.

A word of advice that may be difficult to follow: RELAX

Before we check ourselves into the nearest sports fan therapy centers, let’s break this all down into a rational, digestible, and focused approach moving forward.

Yes, the 2014 season is pretty much Kaput. It’s time to think about 2015 and beyond.

The Rangers need to replace their injury-emptied back-end of the rotation in 2015.

The Rangers continue to have a surplus of elite middle infielders and prospects.

The Rangers have the same media-approved lineup, with the exception of Alex Rios, under club control for at least 2015.

The top of next year’s rotation should continue to rank among the best in Baseball.

Texas should move Rios and Soria before this season’s trade deadline in exchange for additional ammo to help the team fill out its rotation. Luke Jackson, Alex “Chi-Chi” Gonzalez, and Perez should be ready to contribute in 2016, if not 2015. 2016 should also welcome Jorge Alfaro and Joey Gallo to the big league club. The combination of effective management and youth development time should lead the Rangers into the same strong position for the next five years that they’ve held for the last five years.

No, the catastrophe which is May 2014 doesn’t mark the end of Rangers baseball as we’ve recently come to know it. Instead, it’s only a hiccup and bump in the road. Again, take a deep breath, and RELAX.

]]>http://www.chickenfriedbaseball.com/2014/05/reaction-and-overreaction.html/feed/rss2/1The More Things Changehttp://www.chickenfriedbaseball.com/2013/05/the-more-things-change.html
http://www.chickenfriedbaseball.com/2013/05/the-more-things-change.html#commentsWed, 01 May 2013 15:00:27 +0000http://www.chickenfriedbaseball.com/?p=3078An overwhelming burden of various commitments over the last twelve months has unfortunately left me with little time to update this blog. Many are now clearing up, so I hope to both increase and improve my contributions.

I may have spared myself some time and unnecessary web space. A quick look at today’s standings would show that despite recent and relentless hemming and hawing by the media, MLB’s divisions are lead by the usual group of suspects.

Teams including the Rangers, Red Sox, Yankees, Tigers, Braves, Giants, and Cardinals comfortably rest in their familiar leadership roles. The Angels, Blue Jays, and Dodgers maintain mediocrity, and surely regret the high expectations set by the media attention they received during Winter. The Yankees have benefited from the contributions of aging former stars. The mostly unknown and underrated A’s find a way to win.

I could go on and on, but I think I’m ready to pick up where I left off.

The disgust among Yankees fans with the team’s offensive output this postseason has been palpable. Simply adjust the volume on your TV, and you will hear what sounds like everyone not named Raul Ibanez or Derek Jeter serenaded with boos after every out.

Make that everyone but Ibanez.

Of course, Yankees fans aren’t the only group that seems to feel entitled to big offensive output. Rangers fans let their disappointment be known after the team’s shocking and sudden exit from the playoff picture by loudly booing the Rangers best hitter, Josh Hamilton on the season’s last day.

With the Rangers eliminated, and the Yankees falling into a precarious 0-2 hole to the Tigers, the likelihood grows that the two teams will try to assuage their dissatisfied fan bases by aggressively trying to improve their lineups in the offseason.

While Yankees ownership has been public about its alleged intention to keep payroll down, the recent evaporation of offensive production may have them rethinking their position. The looming dissatisfaction among “Yankees Universe” could mean intensifying pressure for the team to spend money this winter to upgrade their lineup. And when it comes to potential improvements on the 2013 free agent market, the Rangers have potentially two “perfect” fits.

New York’s decision to trade Jesus Montero, and the reality that Gary Sanchez is still at least a couple of years away means Mike Napoli would make sensible replacement for the tandem of Russell Martin and “Former Ranger Great” Chris Stewart. Napoli has previously shown the combination of power and patience that seems to jibe with the Yankees approach, although some of the shine came off in 2012. Don’t be surprised if the Yankees make a serious run at Napoli this winter.

In any other city or scenario, Josh Hamilton would seem like a no-brainer for the Yankees. Hamilton would represent long term and everyday replacement for the carousel of aging stars usually employed to roam left field in the Bronx. The downside risk is obvious for obvious reasons. Still, in the spirit of Mickey Mantle, Hamilton would reinvigorate the Yankees lineup if off the field distractions could be avoided. What’s not obvious, despite popular opinion, is that the Yankees will shy away from the risk. In fact, I wouldn’t be surprised if they craft some sort of deal that goes great lengths to ensure oversight. They could hire Johnny Narron, Jerry Narron and even high school coach Clay Council to provide the Deb-Dexter Morgan treatment. Okay, that might be pushing it, but it would be a mistake to jump to the conclusion that they won’t at least try.

Ultimately, the Rangers are in a tough spot. They need to improve a team that is yet to be weakened by the onset of free agency. There just aren’t a whole lot of attractive potential additions on the free agent horizon. In all likelihood, the best approach may be to hope to avoid subtraction.

]]>http://www.chickenfriedbaseball.com/2012/10/yankees-offensive-woes-could-mean-trouble-for-texas.html/feed/rss2/1Crossing the Aislehttp://www.chickenfriedbaseball.com/2012/07/crossing-the-aisle.html
http://www.chickenfriedbaseball.com/2012/07/crossing-the-aisle.html#commentsMon, 23 Jul 2012 13:09:32 +0000http://www.chickenfriedbaseball.com/?p=3049A good friend of mine is a die-hard Angels fan living in Orange County. We also happen to work together and regularly make use of gchat during the workday to boast about our favorite teams and ridicule the other’s. C.J. Wilson, Mike Napoli, Yu Darvish and Jared Weaver are frequently hot topics. That said, I’ve surprised myself by my reaction to one of Anaheim’s newest heroes. My colleague recently took to instant messaging to sing the praises of Mike Trout.

My response? “I agree. He’s awesome and will probably be the AL MVP”.

My Rangers fandom hasn’t been enough to stand in the way of my appreciation for the budding and current superstar Angel. As a baseball fan, it’s hard not to be blown away by his unique skill set combined with his young age. Trout’s performance has been eye-popping. In just 74 games, the 20 year old has played a stellar centerfield, stolen 31 bases in 34 attempts, hit 15 home runs and amassed an OPS of 1.015.

I understand that there’s a good to great chance that I look back on this post a couple of years from now and wonder what in the hell came over me. Think about President Obama’s 63% approval rating the month he took office. Impressive, but unsustainable in the sense that everyone retreats to their entrenched position over time and the numbers always regress to the mean.

I expect that someday Trout will knock the Rangers out of contention or say something that gets under my skin. At that point, I will probably take to instant messaging my belief that Trout is overrated, not that good, etc. As for now, I’m content to be a fanboy.

]]>http://www.chickenfriedbaseball.com/2012/07/crossing-the-aisle.html/feed/rss2/2Rangers Continue to Build Prospect Pipelinehttp://www.chickenfriedbaseball.com/2012/06/rangers-continue-to-build-prospect-pipeline.html
http://www.chickenfriedbaseball.com/2012/06/rangers-continue-to-build-prospect-pipeline.html#commentsTue, 05 Jun 2012 10:24:54 +0000http://www.chickenfriedbaseball.com/?p=3044The Rangers entered the 2012 season with one of the top rated farm systems in baseball. While that designation should have encouraged Rangers fans, several of the top prospects that helped them earn it have been disappointing thus far.

The Rangers top two arms at AAA Round Rock, Martin Perez and Neil Ramirez, have struggled and had ugly starts to the season. Conversely, Leonys Martin was off to a hot start before being sidelined with a thumb injury over a month ago. It’s a small window, and the prized assets of the Texas system still have tons of potential, but the important takeaway is that it is critical to stockpile as many prospects as possible throughout the system, as so many fail to fulfill the promise we hope they’ll achieve.

The Rangers re-engaged that mission last night by drafting the first three of their five total picks for the first two rounds of the Rule 4 amateur draft. Each of the five picks will come before the Angels hit the board at 114.

With the 29th pick, the Rangers selected Florida high school outfielder Lewis Brinson. According to ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel, Brinson may have the second-highest upside in the draft. Brinson is considered to be an athletic centerfielder with some question marks around his ability to hit offspeed and breaking pitches.

With the 39th pick, Texas drafted Nevada high school third baseman Joey Gallo. As with many top high school talents, Gallo also spent time on the pitchers mound blowing away hitters with a mid-90s fastball.

The Rangers strayed from their recent approach of drafting slightly built pitchers in the early rounds by selecting 6’ 4” Collin Wiles out of Blue Valley West High School in Kansas with the 53rd overall pick.

Joey Gallo was the first of two players Texas will receive as compensation for C.J. Wilson’s departure to Anaheim. Collin Wiles’ invitation was earned by allowing Darren Oliver to sign with Toronto.

In all likelihood, the Rangers will have a similar, but not necessarily welcome, opportunity this time next year. Current Rangers who could net the Rangers draft picks next year include:

Of course, unlike the Oliver situation, exchanging these players for the lottery tickets which are prospects is not ideal. But, given the uncertainty surrounding the future of amateurs, Texas’ ability to continue filling their prospect pipeline should keep their farm system and Major League club at the top of the game.

]]>http://www.chickenfriedbaseball.com/2012/06/rangers-continue-to-build-prospect-pipeline.html/feed/rss2/1Rangers Finally Add Oswalthttp://www.chickenfriedbaseball.com/2012/05/rangers-finally-add-oswalt.html
http://www.chickenfriedbaseball.com/2012/05/rangers-finally-add-oswalt.html#commentsWed, 30 May 2012 12:45:25 +0000http://www.chickenfriedbaseball.com/?p=3042The move was both highly telegraphed and anticipated, but the announcement that Roy Oswalt agreed to terms with the Rangers was an emboldening reminder that Texas is the team to beat in 2012.

On the more serious side, when asked about the team’s courtship of Oswalt, Ryan humbly spoke of things like the team’s proximity to Oswalt’s home before adding that the Rangers are “in a pennant race”. I think it’s pretty safe to say the potential impact of the signing on the Rangers 2012 outlook was certainly not lost on Oswalt.

Neftali Feliz was destined to make a temporary stop in the bullpen in October. Now, he will help establish what could be one of the all-time great relief corps as soon as he hopefully comes off of the DL this summer. The move will likely mean that Matt Harrison pitches out of relief in the postseason.

A phrase like “exceptionalism made easy” could accurately describe Josh Hamilton’s incomparable baseball talent. His powerful and beautiful swing, combined with his see-pitch-hit-pitch approach, and the fact that he spent three years away from the game would definitely lend credence to this description.

However, the phrase I lifted from Baseball Prospectus’ 2012 annual refers not to Hamilton, but the Rangers front office.

An excerpt:

It’s an easy (and often fun) exercise for fans to comically assume that members of their favorite team’s front office are a bunch of fools, making decisions that you either know to be foolish or assume will end up looking foolish a few years down the line. You might even surmise that you could run a professional organization with more success, especially given the fact that you aren’t as prone to foolish decisions as the front office in question. The converse might also be comical if you blindly assume that the front office of your favorite team is filled with intellectually superior beings, those blessed with not only brains but also balls, to put it rather crudely. Baseball, like any other business, has its stars and its slouches, and the reality of that construct does in fact allow for some teams to be run by fools while other teams are in fact run by people who are very smart and very astute in their chosen vocation. While it’s not pleasant to be made aware that your favorite team happens to be run by people who aren’t that exceptional, it is quite refreshing to be told that your favorite team is under the leadership of people who do possess exceptional qualities. For fans of the Texas Rangers, allow us to offer that form of refreshment, as the front office for your team is in the top tier in the game.

While we as fans will never cease to debate the moves and approach the front office pursues, the track record of Jon Daniels, Thad Levine, A.J. Preller, and company has taken most of the fun out of the management questioning & critique exercise.

Even though high regard of the front office has become commonplace among fans, the Rangers faithful have still questioned a number of their decisions as recently as the previous offseason.

Let’s take a quick look back at a few of the major decisions they made over the winter.

There was a large contingent of fans who wanted to see the Rangers re-sign C.J. Wilson, and were nervous to see the team’s best pitcher walk after Texas made only a low-ball offer to bring him back. Wilson was the team’s game one postseason starter in 2011, and it is rare to see financially capable teams let their “ace” walk while continuing to try to improve their team. Wilson has been great for the Angels, going 5-4 with a 2.90 ERA and 1.15 WHIP so far this season in Anaheim, but still doesn’t qualify as what most would consider to be a true ace of a pitching staff. Instead, the Rangers gambled on Yu Darvish, despite the shoddy track record of Japanese imports coming to the U.S. Darvish has immediately become one of the most dominant starters in all of baseball, and one whom fans should feel confident in starting in a game one or seven postseason situation.

Many observers, including myself, wanted the Rangers to sign Prince Fielder with the intention of letting go of Hamilton following the 2012 season. Texas opted to go with a cheaper option in sticking with Mitch Moreland. While Moreland isn’t the player Fielder is, he is certainly providing significantly more value so far this season. A comparison through May, 26th:

Player

AVG

OBP

SLG

HR

Contract

Moreland

.309

.364

.582

8

491,000

Fielder

.311

.369

.480

7

214,000,000

The public opinion pendulum regarding closers has swung a little too far. In recent years, it has become trendy for fans to bash the role and criticize teams for offering up more than a bag of balls for a closer. Needless to say, the Rangers decision to give aging Joe Nathan a two year $18 million contract was not well received. Still, Texas opted to take a chance on one of the most dominant closers of the last ten years, despite the fact that he was coming off of Tommy John surgery and a couple of poor seasons in Minnesota. Nathan appears to have regained the form that enabled him to save 260 games with the Twins, touching 96 MPH with his fastball and demonstrating pinpoint command. In 19 ⅔ innings so far this season, Nathan has struck out 24, walked just 2, saved 10 of 11 opportunities, and managed an ERA of 2.41 and WHIP of 0.96.

Furthermore, Nathan’s addition essentially amounted to adding a starting pitcher for the same price, as it allowed Neftali Feliz to move to the rotation.

Yes, it is refreshing to know that the Rangers have an exceptional and intelligent front office. It is also empowering to have discovered an easy way to look smart – simply agree with everything they do.

]]>http://www.chickenfriedbaseball.com/2012/05/exceptionalism-made-easy.html/feed/rss2/0A Very Happy Birthday for Eric Nadelhttp://www.chickenfriedbaseball.com/2012/05/a-very-happy-birthday-for-eric-nadel.html
http://www.chickenfriedbaseball.com/2012/05/a-very-happy-birthday-for-eric-nadel.html#commentsThu, 17 May 2012 10:24:51 +0000http://www.chickenfriedbaseball.com/?p=3034The Rangers announced yesterday that broadcaster Eric Nadel will be inducted to the Texas Rangers Hall of Fame. The designation is long overdue, and it is only a matter of time before Nadel receives the Ford Frick award, and induction into the national Baseball Hall of Fame. The announcement came on the eve of Nadel’s 61st birthday today.

The Rangers are going to make the playoffs. A bold prediction? Hardly. You’ll have to search far and wide to find someone who disagrees with this projection. Rather, the question now is whether or not they finish 2012 with the best record in the American League, and where the team’s final tally will line up among the great teams of recent memory.

The incentive to finish the season with the league’s best record is the highest it has been since divisional play began in 1969. The team with the best record will secure home field advantage, and have the opportunity to potentially play the league’s fifth best team, and a team weakened by pitching its ace in a one game wild card playoff.

Despite a recent “slump” that left them on the losing side of series against Tampa Bay, Toronto, and Cleveland, the Rangers are currently on pace to win 106 games.

The Rangers play a very favorable schedule from here until the All-Star Break. Their opponents combined for a .472 winning percentage in 2011. Furthermore, their schedule is heavily weighted towards the laggards, including two series a piece against Houston, Seattle, and Oakland.

In other words, it’s time for the Rangers to put some distance between themselves and the rest of the American League, and move a step closer to finishing their unfinished business from 2010 and 2011.