College-Football Power Rankings

Wharton professor Cade Massey and Las Vegas sports analyst Rufus Peabody rank college football teams based mostly on season-to-date statistics that best predict future performance. Past wins and losses are awarded no predictive power. Here is their Top 50, highlighting the nation’s unbeaten teams, who are ranked according to expected winning margin versus the average Division I FBS team on a neutral field. (See Massey-Peabody.com for details.)

There is consensus with the BCS rankings at the top, as Alabama, Florida State and Oregon also hold the top three spots. But Massey and Peabody’s next highest-ranked unbeaten, Ohio State, is ranked two spots lower than in the BCS, behind LSU (20.3 points over average) and Wisconsin (18.3), which each have two losses.

While the BCS ranks no unbeaten team lower than 18th (Northern Illinois), Massey and Peabody list the Huskies (48th, 4.7 points better than average), Texas Tech (40th, 7.1) and Fresno State (41st, 7.0) well outside their top 20.

Other unbeatens Missouri, Miami and Baylor each chart lower than in the BCS, which lists them all inside its top 10. But by Massey and Peabody’s key statistical measures, these three undefeated teams rank below the 4-3 Georgia Bulldogs (eighth-best 17.5 points above average), who fail to even crack the BCS top 25.

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