The Carolina Hurricanes harsh reality

I mostly wrote this article in my mind during the losing streak during the second half of February. I am on record from awhile back as saying that the Hurricanes needed to make hay during the 12-game stretch with 11 at home in February if they were going to make the 2018 playoffs. So when that run went south with six straight losses (two in overtime), I think most of the nails were put into the coffin. But partly because other teams battling for the last wild card spot were also struggling and partly because of the volume of games left, it would have been premature to call the season finished at that point. It actually is still premature in the sense that the Hurricanes are still just one 8-9-game winning streak away from seizing a wild card slot. But with only 15 games remaining, time to find 8-9 straight wins is running short, and with the Hurricanes struggles (2-6-2 in their last 10) of late, nothing suggests that the team is building toward such a winning streak.

So today’s Daily Cup of Joe will skip unfounded optimism and instead settle in on the harsh reality of the 2017-18 season and the uncertain path forward.

The 2017-18 Carolina Hurricanes are not better

A common refrain over the past couple years has been that despite missing the playoffs, the team improved. That was the case for the previous couple years and showed up in the record. That is not the case at the NHL level for the 2017-18 season. The struggles of other teams battling for the final playoff spot create the false impression that because the Hurricanes are still sort of in the hunt on March 7, that the team is improved. But in fact, the Hurricanes are now on pace for 84-85 points which would be 2-3 less than in 2016-17.

And it is because the team has the exact same set of problems as this time last year

What is more, the list of areas where the team needs to improve are nearly identical to the same time last year.

Goaltending continues to be a problem. Cam Ward had a strong season transitioning to backup, but at 34 years old, I do not think he is the answer as a starter. And Scott Darling has officially entered Eddie Lack territory as a hoped to be starter who has not been good enough to be even a solid backup so far.

The blue line continues to have a ton of promise for the future but at the same time being short for the present. In 2016-17, Hainsey/Faulk just was up to snuff as a second pairing. In 2017-18 Faulk/____ has also not been up to snuff. Only Jeff Skinner has a worse goal differential at even strength, and the team really has not found a reliable second defense pairing. The result is that Peters is forced to split Slavin and Pesce on the road to try to create balance via a spread out support system. To be clear, the potential is there for multiple players to rise up and fill the second defense pairing, but there just is not guarantee that this will happen nor is there a guarantee on schedule.

And the team still lacks the high-end offense necessary to score enough. After finishing 20th in the NHL in scoring in 2016-17, the team has actually taken a step back in falling to 26th. Just like last summer, the team will enter the offseason needing to add at least one offensive catalyst to build a true scoring line.

Shorter version: The Hurricanes right now are no better at the NHL level than they were a year ago, and they will enter the summer with a nearly identical list of issues/gaps to be addressed.

And what’s worse is that the team could still be another full year of rebuilding away

Misconceptions of playoffs being inevitable because of youth

Two lines of thought that I think are both misconceptions represent the greatest potential for justified optimism right now.

The first misconception (in my opinion) is that because the team is young, it will just automatically get better each year making a playoff berth inevitable at some point soon. While young players and teams do have greater potential to improve than older teams, it is far from a sure thing. One need look no further than the 2017-18 Carolina Hurricanes who are not better this year or the Edmonton Oilers who seemed to rising rapidly until all of a sudden they were not.

The second misconception (again in my opinion) is that players at the AHL level will fuel a level of improvement that boosts the team into the playoffs. I do think that the farm system has become a strength and will help to some degree. And I do think that the team should give the players who are excelling at the AHL level a chance. But counting on these players to be sure things when making the jump to the NHL is far from a sure thing. It might be that another star or two are found and do catapult the team up the standings. But equally likely is the possibility the AHLers are only capable of providing depth at least short-term.

Help from within at the center position

The Hurricanes actually have two incredibly promising options to add a playmaking center from within. Sebastian Aho is already a very good offensive player at the NHL level at the age of 20. Ideally with help from another proven finisher at wing (Max Pacioretty plug again), Aho could be the center that the team needs to build a pure scoring line to complement Staal’s line that always leans defense. In addition, despite being a year younger and with significantly less NHL experience, 2017 draftee Martin Necas has the potential to be a first line scoring center and quite possibly sooner rather than later.

But here’s the thing…Both Aho and Necas are likely to face a learning curve with some mistakes growing into this position. My assessment of both players is actually somewhat similar. They look pretty capable because of natural ability when playing the center position with the puck on their sticks and at least a little bit of room to navigate with the puck. That is the natural playmaking ability that each has. And both players get the basics of playing without the puck when they are first in on the forecheck and mostly just need to hound the puck and/or play passing lanes. But my estimation is that both players have a ways to go in terms of sorting out assignments, making decisions and playing angles in all three zones defensively. Both can be really ‘squishy’ in the regular role as a center behind the first wave of the forecheck such that they offer too much space and fail to take away options and angles in the neutral zone. The result is often a 2-on-2 or a 3-on-2 flying at the defensemen with speed. And both will invariably suffer some growing pains figuring out when to attack pucks/players and when to defend danger areas in the defensive zone. Both Aho and Necas are smart players who definitely have the ability to grow in this par of the game, but if that happens gradually with ice time in 2018-19, that sounds more like another round of rebuilding than thriving, especially if the learning is occurring in a top 6 role playing heavy minutes against other teams’ best lines.

Shorter version: I do think that Sebastian Aho and/or Martin Necas could be the answer for an offensive center, but I also think that there could be growing pains and not just instant magic in getting there.

Building a second defense pairing

Similarly, the Hurricanes need to be better in rounding out a top 4 on the blue line. I count all four of the team’s NHL regulars on the bottom two pairs as potentially capable. But until two of them do it consistently, the key word is “potential” unfortunately is not the same as reality.

Part of me thinks that it is time to just throw Hanifin into a top 4 role and not try to shield him from the really hard match ups. Rather, my hope is that the every shift challenge is actually what he needs to find a higher consistency level in terms of avoiding lapses. But every time, I am ready to forge down this road, Hanifin seems to have a game or two that suggest maybe he is just a good offensive #5 defenseman (which is not ideal but is not a horrible thing). Justin Faulk actually was a solid top 4 defensive defenseman before his offense blossomed. But after being early on the bus that suggested Faulk might not be all that defensively before the midway point of the 2016-17, the bus has filled up with others declaring the same thing. Not blinded by his strong start offensively, my chronology in an article on December 9, 2016 called out Faulk’s defensive struggles before they were really a topic of discussion. Those issues have carried over into the 2017-18 season.

Shorter version: The Hurricanes continue to have a ton of potential on the blue line, but until a consistent and solid ‘today’ second pairing emerges, the blue line will not become a strength and can even be a weakness.

Goaltending

A few people have said that the Hurricanes are right where they were this time last year. I actually think the situation is more like the summer of 2016 when Cam Ward was a free agent (which he is again this summer) and a struggling hopeful starter was locked up for multiple more years.

I will save the longer version for another day, but I think bringing back Cam Ward and Scott Darling is a huge dice roll just like it was two years ago when the team decided to give Lack another try and also re-sign Ward.

Shorter version: The goaltending needs to be better. With Darling under contract for 3 more years at a starter type salary, how Francis deals with this reality this summer will be critical the team’s success in 2018-19.

On the current course is the 2018-19 season another of rebuilding

So the Hurricanes have a need for more offense from the center position and also another top 6 scoring forward or two. The only potential options are a 20-year old who has yet to prove he can handle the defensive responsibilities of the center position at the NHL level and a 19-year old with virtually nothing for NHL or North American professional experience.

That sounds like rebuilding that could work instantly but also could very well see some growing pains that take some time to work through.

The blue line has a number of young players with a growing amount of NHL experience, but the rising young players (Hanifin and Fleury) have yet to really hold down a top 4 slot and excel in it. It might be time to throw one or both into the pool to see if they can learn to swim.

That sounds like rebuilding that also could yield success but could also fail or at least encounter a good volume of growing pains during a transition phase.

In net, the Hurricanes have Scott Darling who was hoped to be the starter for the 2017-18 season but was not even close to a success. Darling did play well at the NHL level before being traded to the Hurricanes, so it is not impossible that he re-finds his game after a summer to reset. But Eddie Lack’s continued struggles in his second season are a stark reminder that a rebound is not a certainty.

If Francis decides to go double or nothing on Darling as a starter in the second year of his four-year contract, that sounds more like a dice roll that could be a winner but also like rebuilding could equally well push team improvement back.

In total, the volume of huge question marks in key roles in the top half of the lineup scream ‘rebuilding still’ for the 2018-19 season.

Please save us Ron Francis (or Tom Dundon?)

The wild card is Francis’ goals for the summer and his actions to accomplish them. If Francis continues with a plan that prioritizes staying the course with regard to building from within and protecting the prospect pool above all else, then the potential exists for another summer of modest additions coupled with a heavy reliance on young players just suddenly being better. The potential that things suddenly click for a young lineup is there, but again, that sounds a lot like rebuilding and hoping for a favorable timeline for it.

If instead, Francis more aggressively seeks to address key weaknesses/room for improvement this summer, the potential could be there to spend some longer-term futures to expedite the process of returning to the playoffs.

What say you Caniacs?

1) Am I wrong to say that the 2017-18 Carolina Hurricanes are no better than the 2016-17 team?

2) Which of the gaps have the greatest potential to be filled internally? And which of the young players do you think is ready to take a big step forward and/or fill a new role in 2018-19?

3) Do you agree that the current course without fairly major changes has the potential to yield yet another rebuilding year in 2018-19 as the team tries to fill key roles from within?

Go Canes!

22 Comments

dogbutler
on March 7, 2018 at 6:33 am

1. Yes. The other Metro teams coming back to Earth camouflaged it, but it’s going to be the same story come April 8th.
2. Top line center, and some Top 6 scoring(Zykov, Saarela, somebody)
3. We need to find League average goaltending, and at least a slight scoring increase, or next year will be like this year.

1. This team is no better than last year or the year before that. I’m sure there are some data points that suggest the opposite, but puck possession is not a conclusive stat (especially when you cannot score).

2. Honestly, I think starting goaltending can be solved from within more so than the other positions. I don’t see any top line forwards or defensemen in Charlotte right now (top line AHLers don’t necessarily translate to top line NHLers). Meanwhile, Ned’s numbers may not be stellar, but he is quietly building the blocks towards the starters crease at the NHL level and I think is that diamond in the rough we need. He may very well have a chance to win a goalie spot on the 2018-19 team, is savvy and has played in the spotlight before.

3. Same shopping list as last summer. GMRF needs to address scoring punch to compliment our young forwards, and bring in a veteran defenseman or two to help stabilize the defense. Bring up Ned and have Darling backup.

1. This team is no better than in the last 2 or 3 years, sadly our first round drafting has not managed to do what it was supposed to, to build a better team.
been downright puzzling (with the possible exception of last year).
2. I hope that the checkers have something to offer, but this is the time to bring up a rotating set of players to get a better idea, the season is done anyway and tanking would actually be good for this team (granted they need to draft better than in years past).
3. I agree, bring up Ned, or one of our goali prospects and pu hem on the spot next season. stop overpaying declining veterans or backups, the result can’t be much worse and could potentially be much better, just look at what Pit and Vegas have done with heir selection of goalies.

I don’t know why the team did not try to bring in Kane. He has repeatedly stated he lves the southeast, and while Florida is probably a top destination, NC s not too far off. We need a guy like that with some grit, snarl and, wel, a trouble maker. The players here are too comfortable and unassuming, there is no grit.
It’s probably too late to get much value for Faulk. HE could have yielded us a Taylor Hall last year, but we’d do well to get a Rick Nash for him by now.

They map every game individually measuring shot quality. While Cam Ward ranks much better than Scott Darling, both are bottom 5 in the league. No matter what you do with the rest of the team you can’t win with bad goaltending.

Certainly the number of high and medium percentage chances our goalies face are due to defensive breakdowns but the stats in that link take that into account (I love fancy stats!). Bottom line is neither of our goalies are living up to their expected save percentages.

What this tells me is we have leaks in all 3 buckets; below average goaltending, too many defensive breakdowns, and not enough scoring all compounding off each other. Synergy is a bitch when it works against you…

I like fancy stats too, for what they can offer. But they can offer a misleading picture of certainty, of course. Simplistically stated, an ordinal approach to ranking shot chances by low-, medium-, and high-percentages masks a wide range in each level. A goaltender facing more shots that are at 19.9% is going to have worse fancy stats than a goaltender facing more shots at 10%. Fancy stats gives a tool, what is really important is the actual distribution of shots within each stratum. So my premise is not negated by fancy stats but may well be supported by them, although it is masked. Does that make sense? – it does to me! 🙂

I understand what you’re saying. Any statistical analysis that lumps an infinite number of possibilities into 3 broad categories is going to have a margin of error. Given a large enough sample size (all NHL goalies having faced at least 730 shots) and the fact that that margin or bias exists for all of them will still give you a reasonable approximation.

Fancy stats, regular stats, or no stats; no one is going to say the Canes have strong or even average goaltending. Having watched ~55 games this season by the sight test Ward is definitely stronger than Darling but I wouldn’t imagine that the CSA stats are too far off.

raleightj
on March 7, 2018 at 10:18 am

Last night Scott Darling looked like the Scott Darling we thought we were getting from Chicago. He played extremely well with some spectacular saves.

Why do I bring this up?

The two goals against him was (a) the defense in front of him being beat (and then Staal was being the Eric Staal of his prime with a move that few, if any goalies could stop); and (b) yet another “whoopsie” in the defensive zone that hung him out to dry (yes, he could potentially have stopped that bullet with another near-spectacular save, but it would have been a near-spectacular save).

This isn’t a criticism of our defensive corps (that would be solved by a veteran D-man, for example).

This is a criticism of our play in the defensive zone in general. How many times did we mention defensive breakdowns in front of the goalie early in the season? About the same amount we still do now.

And it was clear last night that it wasn’t because of who was in net – i.e., the players play differently when Darling is in net to cover his gaffes.

Does this fall on Steve Smith? Or BP? I don’t know. But our defensive lapses are more common and significant this year than in previous years, which leads to more blowouts. In our 71-point season 3 or 4 years ago we only had a couple of blowout losses – we have had 2-3 times as many this season just since January 1.

And when the team is down early they play differently and that is even worse now – we have a potentially (and at times) potent offense that seems to freeze up when down a goal early. This is one of the issues that Williams was supposed to help address.

So I am not going to get on the bandwagon that we need this piece or that piece (virtually every team needs more scoring).

The Hurricanes have cleaned up the defensive lapses – defensive lapses by D-men and forwards alike (two goals in Boston as a result of Skinner entering the neutral zone before we had secure the puck in the d-zone, bad passing while trying to clear, failure to win puck battles on the boards).

The number of goals scored against us by untouched players within the circles is what defines this season, and it’s failure to me.

Where is this magical land of quality goaltenders that everybody seems to want to visit?

Matt it’s all well and good to say coming back with Scott and Cam is a huge dice roll, because it is, but name me one realistic goalie acquisition situation that won’t result in goaltending being a huge dice roll next season?

Cam and Scott, pushed by Ned, will be our realistic best shot for goaltending stability in 2018-19, unless Montreal goes insane and decides to trade Carey Price for peanuts. This is the reality. I understand if it’s somewhat disappointing, but this mythical legit #1 tender that we’re looking for is kind of unavailable via free agency or trade. Just saying.

This summer’s list of possibilities right now includes Lehner, Raanta and Mrazek. Lehner and Raanta have at least logged time as a #1 at the NHL level which is maybe the single biggest difference from Lack and Darling.

The good news is that the number of shoppers is pretty low as virtually every other team that went goalie shopping over the past two summers found someone they are happy with going forward — Tor-Andersen, Veg-Fleury, Dal-Bishop, Cal-Smith. The Canes need only be willing to spend the money and convince a goalie that they are a better destination than other lottery teams like Ari, NYI and Buf.

Interestingly, Raanta and Darling were separated by less than 10 starts in total service time last season when they were both available, and both traded to become full time starters. Hindsight proves 20-20, but is Raanta’s potential over Darling worth that much to pour the $30 million into it? What if he comes here and crumbles too?
And as for Bishop, sure Dallas is happy now with their 31 year old goalie with a .917 save percentage, but that last 20 million on that deal still looks real shady, and that’s more than we paid Darling in total lol.

And why are we hating on Darling’s ability to recover? Mike Smith was a mediocre goalie for the last five seasons, before having this seeming renaissaince year at 35. Give Darling a summer of work here, getting further acclimated and in the right mindset, for next year and I’ll take him (with a hopefully less breakdown-prone defense) over any of the options available this offseason.

I understand the frustration. The goalie play has been mediocre. But goalie play is a dice roll. The slightest mental hiccup or environmental discomfort can play more havoc with a goalie game than any skill level or lack thereof at the NHL level. Carey Price is having a down year, is anybody still claiming he’s not an elite NHL goaltender? I just don’t see how continuing the revolving door of goaltenders has any basis in good strategy given the lack of elite options available
.
I will give you Andersen. We probably should have went after that. I’d be okay with Andersen over Gauthier at this point. Here’s hoping the future proves me wrong.

Short term AND long term are important to consider here. I know some of you would put a second and third mortgage on your home to help the Canes get back to the playoffs but we really don’t need to.

There were 3 or 4 other free agent goalies available when we signed Darling )Matt has a great article on that from about a month ago).

Those included Ben Bishop, M.A. Fleury, Rontaa and I think a few others. Their price tags might have been a tad bit higher than Darling’s but they have all had pretty good seasons.
Of course there’s hindsight 20 20, I think we all were happy to bring Darling onboard, though Matt already posted early warnings when we signed him.

A few goaltenders have been signed for very small price (in terms of pick payments) recently, including Mrazek though his stats are not eye popping he has been better than Darling (admittedly it’s hard to be worse).
So goaltenders have been available both last summer and since, but RF bet on the wrong one and locked him to a long-term contract without seeing him play a single game in a Canes uniform.

That was a costly decision that, in retrospect, was a huge mistake (and hopefully darling can turn his career around and prove that it wasn’t a mistake, just a fluke year, but we can’t just sit back and hope, there’s got to be another plan).

So instead of going with a proven starter RF went with a good backup and hoped to convert him to a starter, identical to when Lacko Taco was signed 2 years ago.

I have not looked inot the market over the summer, and Darling with his contract is pretty much unshoppable.

But we can try to sign a 1A goaltender on par with Mrazek and keep our farm goaltenders ready to assume duties.

I mean I do think this years team is better – just very marginally at that. Yet marginally better wasn’t going to be enough to make the playoffs let alone contend to win playoff rounds. The marginal improvements – Terevainen showing he can probably be a 2nd line winger more than a 3rd line winger, Aho not taking a step backward offensively, Justin Williams adding a secondary scoring option that is reliable, and TVR fixing the gaping hole that was the #5 dman spot.

So I wouldn’t say this year was a complete travesty as there were some positives, but there is still some way to go to become a contender. I totally agree 100% with your assessment of Necas and Aho at center, as well as the d-corps.

1. I think this team is marginally better than last year’s team. The inconsistency this year is somewhat puzzling, but in certain games it looked like everything was clicking and other games were a complete train wreck.
2. I think Wallmark, Foegele, McKeown & Samuelsson (as our possible 3rd pairing next year) have earned promotions. Current Canes players that have had chances and not met expectations (we all know who these players are) need to be traded or moved out to make room. This sends a strong message and is healthy for the organization.
3. I agree the current course will yield another rebuilding year.

I totally agree with breezy about RF signing Darling when he could have had Bishop for about $800k more per year. It’s time to give Ned an opportunity. I believe our new owner TD will give RF the green light to make some key deals this summer. I must say I am not confident in RF’s deal-making ability but time will tell.

Let’s face the facts – if there was ever a somewhat ‘easy’ year to make the playoffs, then this year was it. The door was flung wide open for the Canes to barge through, but it hasn’t happened. And now it looks like we’re in the same leaking ship we’ve found ourselves in for the last 9 years. So are we better than last year? The stats, and my eye test of watching every game (and attending a few), tells me no. We’re not. In fact, with the Darling experiment a huge failure, we might even be a notch worse. Add in the step back our young defensive studs have taken (Pesce, Slavin, and an abysmal Faulk), it might even be more than a notch. But what has been the most frustrating for me this season, has been the numerous games where the team just phones in their effort. The second period last night was perhaps the most egregious of these examples. And this issue has me very concerned, as it points to something deeper than the talent of these athletes. It points to leadership, or lack thereof… any team, company, classroom, army squad, etc., that isn’t led by someone the group respects, it’s destined for failure. And that’s the problem with this franchise – there’s a prevalent lack of leadership helming the boat. Because if there was a strong leader in command of this team, we would’ve never seen the pathetic excuse of effort we saw in the second period last night. It just wouldn’t have happened. So what’s the cure? We can only look to our new owner. There’s a lot of reasons TD is a young billionaire, and I’d say one of the main one’s, is that he knows how to lead his employees. And that’s what he’s gonna need to do with this franchise. Research the problems, analyze this research, then make decisions based on the analysis, and finally… act. If he needs his own ‘outside the franchise’ group of hockey specialists to help him with this process (and I suspect he’s already got them in place), then so be it. It’s time for him to step forward and provide solutions to this rapidly deteriorating company he now owns. That may be our only hope.

On goaltending – Ward has been like we have seen him in years past; elite for stretches, “meh” for stretches, and the occasional “WTF” game. Darling had a crisis in confidence earlier this season. But the Darling I saw last night was the Darling who played in Chicago – sound on low- and medium-grade chances and some amazing saves otherwise. The shots that went through were defensive breakdowns – even though a number of his excellent saves had to be made because of breakdowns. Important to note – Darling got better after EStaal scored on that wicked first SOG against him. It is one game, but it is a game I haven’t seen from him this seasaon and I want to see the followup.

But I don’t want to see us play yet another game of goalie roulette next season.

And I don’t want to see us believe in a “quest for the holy 1C”. Note – Tavares is not going to sign here and the few players of his ilk won’t sign here until they see a reason to sign here. Not yet. Not even close.

My belief in Charlotte isn’t that we are going to have NHL superstars lurking there – rather the boost in energy (which has proven itself in previous recalls, including Ryan) and the possibly of significant improvement (if you haven’t been impressed by Wallmark over Rask, I am not sure we are on the same page).

I think the biggest change that is necessary is…a change at top, with the coach. Not that Peters is a bad coach at all. He was the right coach for the first 2-1/2 years here. But when I see a team that is elite for 2 or 3 games in a row and then look like bums for 2-4 games, I don’t think it is the players as much as the coach. The players need to be hearing a new voice. My biggest disappointment will be if we don’t go into next year with a different coach.

All that said – a 5-game win streak (which we haven’t had yet but I think we are capable of) puts us in the playoffs.

Well, I cant say I wasn’t recommending this move, I’ve just been listing what I think are big managerial oopsies made by RF.
Again, he is a hall of fame player, class person, generational talent on the ice, and one of the most unique players to ever wear a Canes jersey. I’ve never and I will never say otherwise.

but that does not automatically make him a good general manager. His reluctance to make the hard decisions (captaincy, evaluating talent, making the big trades or signings) and his run of goalie woes cost him the job.

Hopefully there is a plan behind this move and another GM is waiting in the wings, or has at least been identified.