Friday, November 27, 2009

Turkey Day

I’m in a good mood due to some stimulating conversations I’ve had over the past few days.

Thinking about the Packers Offense

I had an online chat with a guy named Oppy on the CheeseheadTV live blog during the Packers-Lions game today. Last week or the week before, Oppy mentioned that Rodgers is McCarthy’s “shiny new sports car, he wants to show it off.” As a result he tends to solve most of his problems by using the quarterback.

This makes a lot of sense to me, this notion that McCarthy is basically a QB coach and thinks like a QB coach. Oppy also critiqued my notion that the O-Line was ignored, “I don't think the o-line has been ignored.. Just over-estimated. O linemen have been taken en mass through the draft for years. They just haven't panned out much. Spitz and Sitton look to be the best of them, but Spitz's future is uncertain at this point.”

I like that. Clearly management feels that they’re focused on the O-Line. It’s just they think that they can coach Alex Gibbs’ zone-blocking system. They can’t. I strongly want to critique this notion of McCarthy being an offensive genius. I think he’s a quarterbacking genius. But ultimately he’s too biased toward the position of the quarterback in most of his analyses.

Oppy asked, “I still don't get why on 4th down attempts or 3rd and Goal McCarthy seems to refuse to use sets that at least make defenses acknowledge it might be a run. I mean, if you want to pass it, that's fine.. But would it kill you to pass it out of a formation with a RB and maybe even a FB in the backfield?”

I said back, “Oppy, I almost get the impression that McCarthy just doesn't trust running as a concept. It's like he thinks, ‘On third and long, of course you throw. No one would rush, so why fake it?’”

He said back, “Cup, I'm not even talking about 3rd and long situations. I'm talking about 3rd and goal.. 4th and 2.. At least make the defense THINK you MIGHT run it. But when you go empty backfield, you're telegraphing ‘Just rush the passer or cover’”

I thought for a bit, but realized it didn’t change my answer. “Oppy, I still think that line of reasoning can be expanded. McCarthy is biased toward passing. Whenever tension is high, he passes. He grafts that bias onto the defense. He thinks, ‘This is a crucial play, we can't run it. The defense knows that.’ He likes passing and grafts that bias onto the defense, so he doesn't try to trick them, thinking it won't work. That's my theory, anyway.”

The Packers play book, according to Aaron Rodgers, is roughly 250 pass plays and 100 run plays. Is it any wonder that he passes way too often? It feels more than 75 percent of the time, but I don’t know the numbers. But even going by a random distribution of the plays, he’d be passing at least 75 percent of the time. Call me old fashioned, but I think that’s crazy. He may be a genius QB coach, but he’s not a genius offensive coach and he’s no head coach. He’s trained Rodgers. He’s done the best he can do. I don’t think he’s a strategist.

Thinking about the Damned Dissertation

I had a talk with Steve Hanson, which very often has a mind-clearing effect for me. He drove home a clear point. “Talal, you should be an unabashed supporter of qualitative methods.” Ellis has also told me to be myself and stop sounding “like you through a Poli Sci echo chamber.” Steve pointed out that all this work was worth it because it has prepared me to go up against the KKV types and that was what I needed to get out of the methods courses. So I guess, in the end, you come up against yourself.

Steve also gave me a minimum for my causal argument. It has to be reasonably falsifiable. That’s the boundary. I can work with that. For the first time I feel like this is a football game I could win. My goal is a theory chapter by Week 1 of next term.

I’m actually pumped about writing.

I Need to Stop Selling Myself Short

I’ve lost a lot of respect for myself because of the illness. I’ve come to believe that I can’t fight, that I don’t have it in me to fight. Maybe I’ve sat in too many seminars in the Pacific Northwest. When I went to Palestine, when I saw that wall in Jericho, I realized that was wrong. There’s fight left in this sclerotic carcass after all. I want to go back.

I will not fear—fear is the mind killer. Fear is the little death that brings total obliteration. I will face my fear. I will permit it to pass over me and through me. And when it has gone past I will turn the inner eye to see its path. Where the fear has gone there will be nothing. Only I will remain.

2 comments:

Here are a few Pack stats you might find interesting, courtesy of NFL.com.

They pass the ball an average of 34.8 times per game while they run the ball an average of 27.5 times per game. That's roughly a 55-45 pass-run split, which these days is pretty normal for most NFL teams. I would guess your perception that they pass a lot more than that comes from the bigger point that they seem to prefer the pass at critical points in the game, such as 3rd/4th and short. They are one of the better teams in the league at converting third downs, ranked 7th with a 46% success rate. The stats don't specify the situation though, so many of these could have been intermediate 3rd-and-5 situations or something. Interestingly, and more true to your point, they are dead last in converting 4th downs. That's right 32nd out of 32 teams with a "success" rate of 14%. They also go for 4th far less than most other teams so the sample size is small with only 7 attempts (with only 1 being successful). By contrast the teams that go for 4th are as expected, the really bad teams, with Kansas City leading the way with 20 attempts and a surprising 60% success rate on 4th down. Atlanta leads the way in 4th down success, converting on an impressive 80% of their attemts (10 attempts, 8 conversions).

I don't know if these numbers really mean anything other than saying the Packers are pretty much middle-of-the pack in most regards. They lead the lead in sacks, which we already knew, have the league's lowest-rated offensive line (based on avg yards per rush, QB hits and total sacks)but surprisingly have the 3rd best team QB rating, behind the Vikings and Saints and amazingly ahead of the Colts and Patriots. If the offensive line could just block the rest of the numbers look like they could have an amazing offense.

I've been telling you the last couple of years that they seem to draft offensive linemen high in the draft almost every year and the guys just aren't panning out. We've discussed bad talent evaluation and bad coaching as some of the problems. I think you are dead on with your epiphany that management feels like they are adequately addressing the offensive line and have even changed offensive line coaches. They are doing everything except for the one thing that needs to be done - change the damn scheme. They've got the talent and instead of trying to fit them into a scheme nobody knows how to coach they should adapt a scheme to best match the personnel they have. Up until know they have simply been waiting for "light bulb" moments where everyone just suddenly gets it and I just don't think that moment will ever come. Unless McCarthy and management realize that and adapt their schemes they will probably continue just as they are now. In fact, I'd argue they may have even reached their peak with this zone blocking stuff as the offense is still pretty solid this year in spite of playing a blocking scheme nobody understands.

Getting rid of McCarthy may be the answer but then you'd risk going through rebuilding years under a new coach. Hey, they could bring in Mike Shanahan, who reportedly is looking hard for a new coaching gig, and he can bring some of that O-line magic he had in Denver. Of course he'd have to somehow convince Alex Gibbs to join him...

> That's roughly a 55-45 pass-> run split, which these days> is pretty normal for most> NFL teams.

Wow. My perception is way off.

> I would guess your per-> ception that they pass a> lot more than that comes> from the bigger point that> they seem to prefer the> pass at critical points> in the game, such as 3rd/> 4th and short.

Maybe. I'll have to think about this. I feel like that we just aren't "West Coast" enough in our offense. Too many longer passes for such a weak line. The line seems to have enable running in the past two games, successfully opening holes for Grant to run through. Grant is beginning to look the same way he looked when Jagodzinski was offensive coordinator. I have to think that this is due to an improvement in the line with the return of Mark Tauscher.

> If the offensive line> could just block the rest> of the numbers look like> they could have an amazing> offense.

This is precisely what is so infuriating. Vince Lombardi once said, "Some people try to find things in this game that don't exist but football is only two things—blocking and tackling." They're trying to get all high-tech. It's stupid. No Packers team should ever look this way.

> and have even changed> offensive line coaches.

The change wasn't deliberate. Jagodzinski got a better job. The line looked like it was starting to gel under Jagodzinski. The move to Campen is, in my view, a disaster. The high school coach just can't cut it.

> Up until know they have> simply been waiting for> "light bulb" moments where> everyone just suddenly> gets it and I just don't> think that moment will> ever come.

I think you are correct. It's the coaches, not the players who need a lightbulb moment. They cannot teach what they do not know. Whatever canny insight Alex Gibbs has, he has not transferred to a different source. It might as well be magic for all its replicability elsewhere.

> In fact, I'd argue they> may have even reached> their peak with this zone> blocking stuff as the> offense is still pretty> solid this year in spite> of playing a blocking> scheme nobody understands.

I agree. Look, they won't fire McCarthy until the end of the year if they're planning on canning him. Maybe he gets the magic to work by the year's end. I'd be delighted to eat my own cheesehead hat. I want to see the Packers play well.

But Mark Tauscher and Chad Clifton can't always be healthy at their age! Tauscher being back for the past two weeks seems to have been the core element in the line's recent improvement. This scheme is high-tech. It seems like the newer guys have trouble learning it. Only the veterans seem to understand it. But relying on Tauscher and Clifton is foolhardy. Their bodies do not have the resilience necessary to keep this up.

It's like you need genius linesmen for this scheme. "Just smart" isn't going to cut it. Either that, or the coaches just can't teach it. Either way, we're fucked.

> Getting rid of McCarthy> may be the answer but> then you'd risk going> through rebuilding years> under a new coach.

We need a coach who's strong enough to realize that the team is mostly rebuilt. Simply put, what we need is a new O-Line. If we can do it with our present talent, so much the better. But we need a coach who isn't quite this obstinate. We need a coach who can gauge his strategy to match the abilities of his men.

About Me

I'm an Arab-American, Catholic queer PhD candidate in political science. The absolute best thing about my life is that I have a lifetime partner named Craig. Just to build some character, I also have multiple sclerosis.