In 2012, the Nats had no less than 10 arbitration candidates once the dust settled on the Super-2 cutoff. The team cut ties with three of the players (Jesus Flores, TomGorzelanny and John Lannan) and then subsequently struggled in areas where Gorzelanny (left handed matchups) and Lannan (5th starter) may very well have helped during hte 2013 season. We predicted these three non-tenders and mostly agreed with the thought process behind each decision at the time. This is a complete “hindsight is 20-20” analysis, but it does go to show that perhaps instead of dumping $11M/year onto a mediocre closer they could have fortified their ranks and kept all three players (who together wouldn’t have totaled the $11M Rafael Soriano got) and perhaps wouldn’t have struggled in these areas for so long. Or perhaps not. I digress.

For 2013, the Nats have 8 Arbitration-eligible players. They had a few other candidates before some demotions (Danny Espinosa, Ryan Perry) and releases (Roger Bernadina and Henry Rodriguez) cleared out potential non-tender/additional arbitration candidates early. Unlike last year there’s really not much argument about nearly any of our arbitration-eligible players (even mlbtraderumors does not list any Nats in its non-tender candidate list). Lets take a look at the 8 guys, their 2013 salaries, their 2014 estimates, and discuss. The salary projections are from Matt Swartz‘s mlbtraderumors model, and I’ll discuss if I think they’re slightly over- or under-representative. As with all salary discussions, all information comes from Baseball Prospectus’ Cots page.

Player

Arb Status

2013 Salary

2014 Swartz Estimate

Jordan Zimmermann

Arb 3

$5.3M

$10.5M

Tyler Clippard

Arb 3

$4.0M

$6.2M

Stephen Strasburg

Arb 1

$3.9M

$3.9M

Ian Desmond

Arb 2

$3.8M

$6.9M

Drew Storen

Arb 2

$2.5M

$3.6M

Ross Detwiler

Arb 2

$2.3M

$2.8M

Wilson Ramos

Arb 1

$501k

$2.1M

Ross Ohlendorf

Arb 2

?

$1.3M

Frankly, the only possible non-tender candidate I see here is Ross Ohlendorf. He signed a minor league free agency deal with Washington whose terms were never released, so one can only assume it was for the major league minimum or near it. He went through arbitration once already, earning more than $2M/year from Pittsburgh in 2011 before bottoming out as a starter. He’s reinvented himself this year though and merits a tender. Paying anything less than $2M/year for what we got from Ohlendorf would be a bargain. If the Nats got him for Swartz’s estimate of $1.3M that’d be fantastic.

Speaking of Swartz’s estimates, lets take a look at his 10 predictions from last year versus what transpired:

Swartz’s arb salary model for our 2012 candidates

Player

Swartz Estimate

Actual Salary

John Lannan

$5.0M

NT $2.5M

Jordan Zimmermann

$4.9M

$5.3M

Tyler Clippard

$4.6M

$4.0M

Ian Desmond

$3.2M

$3.8M

Tom Gorzelanny

$2.8M

NT $2.6M

Ross Detwiler

$2.2M

$2.3M

Drew Storen

$1.7M

$2.5M

Jesus Flores

$1.2M

NT ML

Roger Bernadina

$1.1M

$1.2M

Craig Stammen

$900k

$875k*

(* Stammen signed a 2 yr/2.25M deal paying him 875k and $1.375M his first two arb years. After non tenders Lannan signed a 1yr/$2.5M deal with Philadelphia, Gorzelanny signed a 2yr/$5.7M deal that pays him $2.6M and $2.8M and which gave him a $300k signing bonus. Flores signed a minor league deal).

I’m not sure I’d call Swartz’s model the self-titled “very accurate” based on these numbers. He was significantly wrong on the three biggest cases the Nats faced last year but proved be much more accurate on the lesser players. It sounds to me like his system does a great job of predicting arbitration figures for bit players but struggles with significant players. I also get the feeling that the Nationals are less willing to argue with their players than other teams, after a series of brusing and self-defeating fights over a few hundred thousand dollars under the previous regime (relative pennies, all things considered).

With that in mind, lets do a little arbitration salary analysis for our 8 guys. The general rule of thumb with arbitration salaries is that they are intended to ramp up the full FA value of the player over the three arbitration periods. So in the first arbitration year, the salary should be roughtly 40% of the full FA value. 60% in the second year and 80% in the third year. Players with a fourth year are tricky; generally i’ve just assumed that by the 4th year you’re paying them nearly full FA value (we don’t have any 4th year arbitration cases this year, so we don’t have to guess). The table below contains the Swartz estimates, then has calculations of the player’s full FA value based on the Swartz estimate, then my own personal estimate of each player’s full FA value, and a working-backwards arbitration salary guess for each guy:

Player

Arb Status

2013 Salary

2014 Swartz Estimate

Full FA Value based on Swartz Estimate

My Est of full FA value

Arb estimate based on my full FA value

Jordan Zimmermann

Arb 3

$5.3M

$10.5M

$13.125M

$15M

$12M

Tyler Clippard

Arb 3

$4.0M

$6.2M

$7.75M

$8m

$6.4M

Stephen Strasburg

Arb 1

$3.9M

$3.9M

$9.75M

$15M at least

$6M

Ian Desmond

Arb 2

$3.8M

$6.9M

$11.5M

$15M

$9M

Drew Storen

Arb 2

$2.5M

$3.6M

$6M

$6M

$3.6M

Ross Detwiler

Arb 2

$2.3M

$2.8M

$4.66M

$5M at best

$3M

Wilson Ramos

Arb 1

$501k

$2.1M

$5.25M

$8M if healthy

$3.2M

Ross Ohlendorf

Arb 2

?

$1.3M

$2.16M

$2.5M at best

$1.5M

Lets go player by player:

Jordan Zimmermann: 2013 Salary was $5.3M. Swartz guesses he’ll get $10.5M while I think he’ll get more. If Zimmermann hit the open market right now you have to think he’s at least a $15M/year guy, and I think the team will have to pay him as such after his 2013 season. The Nats face an interesting decision with Zimmermann; they clearly waited one season too long to lock him down and he now may cost double what it cost the team to secure Gio Gonzalez‘s services.

Tyler Clippard: 2013 salary $4.0M. Swartz guesses he’ll get $6.2M. Clippard represents a different arbitration case; by virtue of the fact that Clippard went from being the 2012 closer to being the 2013 setup guy, he’ll have a harder time arguing for additional money despite his excellent season. Why? Because arbitration is driven by the same old-school stats (Wins, Saves, ERA, RBI) that drive sabrematricians crazy, and unfortunately Clippard didn’t get them in 2013. So even though I think he’s a $8M/year closer for a team that gives him that opportunity, he won’t get that value in arbitration. I’ll be surprised if he gets near to Swartz’s estimate of $6.2M. Honestly the team should look to buy him out of his last two arbitration seasons and look to move him to a team in need of a closer.

Stephen Strasburg; 2013 Salary $3.9M. Swartz guesses he’ll get $3.9M again? Clearly something is wrong with his system. No matter what you think about Strasburg’s 2013 season … by nearly any measure available he’s one of the 10 best pitchers in the game. If he hit the open market right now I’d guess he’d command at least $20m/year, but for simplicity’s sake I’m putting his FA value at a conservative $15M, which would equate with a $6M valuation for his first arbitration season. Do the Nats just buy him out of his arbitration figures, much as the Giants did with Tim Lincecum?

Ian Desmond: 2013 salary $3.8M. Swartz guess: $6.9M. Again, I feel like Swartz is undervaluing a significant player here. Desmond has now established himself as one of the best shortstops in the game. If you want a comp, look no further than Elvis Andrus‘s $15M/year contract. I think Desmond is absolutely worth a 6/$90M deal or higher right now, and I think we’ll see it in his arbitration case.

Drew Storen: 2013 salary $2.5M. Swartz estimate: $3.6M. Here I think Swartz is right on; because Storen’s not getting saves right now, and because of his crummy 2013, I’ve got his FA value pegged at a mid-range closer cost of $6M/year. Which puts him right in line for a $3.6M payday in his second arbitration year. As with Clippard, I think Storen’s value is limited as long as he doesn’t get saves, and the team should look to move him before he gets too expensive.

Ross Detwiler: 2013 salary $2.3M. Swartz Estimate $2.8M. Frankly Swartz may be over-estimating on Detwiler, based on his 2013 season. At this point in Detwiler’s career its hard to say he’s any more valuable on the FA market than John Lannan was last year (getting a 1yr $2.5M deal). Which means that any arbitration award above $2.5M may mean Detwiler enters non-tender territory if he struggles in 2014. Nonetheless, I think he’ll end up getting just a modest raise and an organizational ultimatum for 2014.

Wilson Ramos: 2013 salary $501k. Swartz Estimate: $2.1M. Here, despite my thinking that Ramos is eventually going to be more valuable than Swartz’s estimate indicat es, I believe that his number will be about right. Ramos needs to stay on the field consistently to realize his full FA value, and right now that just hasn’t happened.

Ross Ohlendorf: 2013 salary unknown. Swartz Estimate: $1.3M. This guess is as good as any; at best Ohlendorf is a $2.5M player on the FA market and even that might be a stretch. A right-handed long-relief guy isn’t going to command a ton of money.

Total payroll hit: $37.3M if all of Swartz’s estimates come true exactly. $44.7M if all of my estimates above come true. Honestly I think my calculated estimates are slightly high in a couple of cases, so I think the arbitration bill will come in at around $42.5M. Which, by the way, would put 2014’s payroll at around $122M before signing a single free agent. So think about that and think about what the Nats “real” payroll budget is before thinking that they’ve got some significant signing in their back pocket.

Who might the team protect ahead of the Rule-5 Draft this year? The topic came up recently in the comments so I thought i’d publish this post to open up the debate again. I’ve got a rule-5 history post as well that i’ll post later this week. And, as it turns out, Nov 20th is the deadline for adding players to the 40-man, so today’s as good a day as any to discuss. (Kilgore’s analysis here, Baseball’s off-season calendar here).

The Nats off-season rule-5 protection debate really started in late August with an observation made about Zach Walters from Adam Kilgore in his pre-Sept 1 callup piece on 8/27/13. It was continued by the announced list of Nats AFL participants, which included a couple of significant Rule-5 protection candidates. Walters was subsequently added to the 40-man and called up, ending any Rule-5 speculation.

As (allegedly) was Steve Souza, who hit the cover off the ball in AA in 2013, with power to go with his CF defensive capabilities. He followed that up by hitting .357 in the AFL, trailing just mega-prospects Kris Bryant and C.J. Cron for top hitting honors in Arizona. I say Souza was “allegedly added” to the 40-man because, while news of his 11/1/13 40-man addition was widelypublished at the time, but his name does not appear on MLB.com’s 40-man roster for the team nor does there exist an 11/1/13 transaction (Editor’s update: it was posted 10/31/13 and the MLB 40-man database was missing him in error; it was eventually fixed). I don’t know if its just a procedural thing or if all the beat reporters mis-reported the event and it should have been characterized as a “planned future” move. But I’ll assume for the rest of this article that Souza is going to be put on the 40-man before the rule-5 draft.

Two of the most obvious Rule-5 candidates (even if Souza was technically a minor league free-agent to be) are now protected. Who else might we see added?

Using the indispensable sites Draft tracker and the Big Board, and then giving some thought to prospect acquisitions made via trade, here’s some thoughts. The quick rule-5 rules; any college-aged draftee from 2010 or before who isn’t already on the 40-man roster is Rule-5 eligible this coming off season, and any high-school aged draftee from 2009 or before is newly eligible this year.

Newly Eligible Players this year worth consideration for protection:

Rick Hague: 2B/SS from Harrisburg; .673 OPS in AA, not good enough OBP for a middle infielder and no power. He’s well down the pecking order of backup middle infielders in this organization right now, and wouldn’t be a great organization loss even if he was selected. Chances of being drafted or protected: very slim.

Jason Martinson: SS from Potomac/Harrisburg: Martinson finally earned a promotion above A-ball, where he promptly hit .185 in AA in 54 games. He showed a ton of power in 2012 for a SS (22 homers) but it was in Low- and High-A ball. Maybe he is a late bloomer. However he’s not in jeopardy of being protected or drafted at this point.

No other 2010 college aged drafted hitter has even made it to Harrisburg; so they’re not going to get drafted or protected. This includes three draft picks in the first 10 rounds of that draft; understandable in that the team committed millions to 3 top guys in 2010 and skimped elsewhere.

Sammy Solis: LHP with Potomac: coming back from injury in 2013 he pitched in Potomac the whole season. He was a bit “old” for A-ball but its understandible considering where he’s been. He excelled in the AFL and is being mentioned as a possible Loogy with the big-league team, so I’d have to think he’s a lock to be protected ahead of the draft.

Harrisburg middle relievers Matthew Grace, Aaron Barrett and Neil Holland: all three have good to excellent numbers in relief this year for AA Harrisburg. Barrett especially as the closer. Grace is left-handed and could feature as someone’s loogy. Tough calls here; you can make a case that the team would like to retain all three guys as bullpen reinforcements in the coming years. You can also make the riskier case that all three guys, while valuable and skilled players, may not stick on a MLB roster the entire year so perhaps they’re good bets to be left unprotected versus someone already on the 40-man roster.

The rest of the remaining 2010 college-age draftees are all either currently on the DL or are in Hagerstown or below, making them very slim candidates to be protected or picked. Cameron Selik was one guy who could have made some noise, but he got hurt this year and isn’t going to get picked.

2009 High School-age drafted players newly eligible: just Michael Taylor, who has a ton of speed (51sbs) and an improved OBP (.340) while repeating high-A this year. I know there are readers here who like Taylor a ton, so this isn’t spoken out of disrespect. I think Taylor has potential. Maybe he “made the leap” in 2013. Maybe he’s going to light up AA next season and suddenly we’re talking about him being Denard Span‘s replacement and not Brian Goodwin. However, I can’t see someone rolling the dice with him in a rule-5 situation. He’s never played above A-Ball. In today’s modern game, with 12 man bullpens and thus shortened benches, I just can’t see someone like Tayler getting carried for an entire year. I think the team may very well roll the dice and leave him exposed in December, and revisit 40-man protection in 2014.

Rule-5 holdovers from before of Note

Last year’s selections Erik Komatsu and Danny Rosenbaum: Komatsu has been hurt all year, Rosenbaum was decent but not over-powering in AAA. Neither guy seems worth protecting since they already were selected and failed to stick. But, they’re both AAA-level talents who could be someone’s bench player/swing man so they may get plucked again if not protected.

Justin Bloxom and Sean Nicol are both college-aged 2009 draftees with run-of-the-mill numbers in AA; they’ll play out the string until they get pushed out at this rate.

Patrick Lehman ended the season on the DL, making one think he’s not likely to get drafted. Well that and his numbers were not good.

Matt Swynenberg has looked better in AA than he did in high-A; has he done enough to garner some interest from another team?

Destin Hood: our 2nd round pick in 2008 just seems to be spinning his wheels; his batting average has dropped as he’s repeated a level. He’s officially in bust status.

Adrian Nieto has earned a placement in the Arizona Fall League and was Rule-5 Eligible last year, but was not drafted. He’s yet to rise above high-A and seems a long shot to be taken (though, the Nats did pretty well plucking one Jesus Flores out of the Mets high-A team one year).

So, who’s getting protected? As of the time of this writing, the Nats roster sits at 39 of 40 (again, assuming Souza is really there), so there’s just one empty spot. But there’s at least a few guys on the fringes of the 40-man who I think could be waived and have a high likelihood of being kept (namely, Tyler Robinson and Corey Brown) if the team thought it needed room for either protectees or free agents. The back-end of this roster is getting a bit clogged.

Depending on how many spots the team keeps open, in order I’d protect Solis, Barrett, Tayler, Grace, and Holland. For me, only Solis is a lock. The rest (for reasons described above) may be calculated omissions.

What a week! Both Bill Ladson and Tom Boswell doing chats/email inboxes! As I sit here as my flight has been delayed a second time, I find myself with the time to bang out Ladson’s latest inbox.

As always, I write my response here before reading Ladson’s and edit questions as needed for clarity.

Q: With right-hander Dan Haren going on the disabled list, is it possible the Nationals will try and trade for left-hander Cliff Lee or another top-of-the-rotation pitcher near the Trade Deadline?

A: Rumors on the street are that Mike Rizzo is working the phones, hard. That sounds to me like he’s looking for serious reinforcements to try to salvage this “go for broke” season. But somehow I seriously doubt it’ll be Cliff Lee. Lee is owed too much money, he’s already 34, and the likelihood of Philadelphia dealing intra-division seems remote. There’s plenty of other pundits out there reviewing the likely pitchers on the Trade market and there’s some intriguing names out there. But it’ll be a sellers market and the Nats farm system has already been thinned recently. Will they thin it even more in a desperate attempt to keep the 2013 dream alive? I hope not; we’re already seeing how poorly thought out trades by other teams in similar positions have backfired and cost their teams significant prospect depth. As others have noted, Ladson predicts the callup of Taylor Jordan for the time being. Lets hope he comes out of no where and pitches 6 shutout innings.

Q: Does Wilson Ramos remind you a bit of Jesus Flores — a promising young catcher who can’t seem to stay off the disabled list?

A: Yeah, except that Ramos is twice the size of Flores and still can’t stay healthy. That Kurt Suzuki move is looking better and better. Derek Norris has yet to really pan out in the majors for Oakland (hitting below .200 this year and for his career), and Suzuki is holding down the fort for now. That being said, we need Ramos back to spell Suzuki, who seems to be tiring as he catches the large majority of the innings. Ladson doesn’t say much … but says the Nats miss Ramos. Duh.

Q: What do you think of the Nats’ start this year, compared to last? Are they a stronger team?

A: Lots of injuries, lots of under-performing on the offense, and a couple of depressing pitching issues. They’re better than a .500 team but they need to have at least a league-average offense (not one of the worst). Ladson says they need Harper back. Duh.

Its the end of May, the Nats are still lingering around .500. Are the natives getting restless in Washington? Lets check in on Tom Boswell‘s 5/28/13 chat.

Q: Pretend there is some kind of supplemental draft and only 3 players are available – Machado, Harper and Trout. Would you mind channeling your inner Mel Kiper and give us your “big board” and rank these 3 phenoms?

A: I’d likely go Trout, Harper and Machado. I think Trout slightly beats out Harper right now in terms of overall talent, though its really really close. I like Trout’s advantage on the basepaths and in the outfield. Harper’s 80 power is hard to find though. Meanwhile Machado’s supposed defensive prowness isn’t even being exploited by the O’s, but given that he plays a premium position to either Trout or Harper he may end up being in the mix for #1 overall too. Boswell puts them in the same order.

Q: Can Ryan Zimmerman play 2B? What about moving him over there and making room for Rendon at third? Ryan played SS in college and in his major league debut, and his quick reflexes seem to give him the range necessary to play the position. And the best part: the throws are a lot shorter from 2B.

A: Michael Morse played shortstop in high school, why wouldn’t we want him to play middle infield now? (sorry, taking a ridiculous similar stance with a player’s athletic abilities NOW versus when he was 18 or 21). I perceive Zimmerman to be “quick” but at the same time “slow.” I don’t think he’s make it as a middle infielder any more. Boswell says almost the same thing; he’s “quick but not fast.” Wow, Boswell and I are 2-for-2 like minded so far!

Q: Is Espinosa ever going to find his swing? I know you were tooting his horn a while back, do you still feel the same about him?

A: Danny Espinosa needs to stop hiding significant injuries from his management. You can’t blame him though; he knows he’s likely out of a job if he sits and someone else succeeds in his place while he heals. But, this is now two major injures he’s basically hidden and tried to play through. No judgement can be made about him any more before he gets completely healthy. I believe the team should D/L him, get both his injuries fixed and re-assess when he’s healthy. He’s certainly not doing the team any favors by hitting .150 with loose bone fragments in his wrist. Of course, his current BABIP is .202; That’s so low as to be amazing, so even with his struggles he should be set to improve. Wow, Me and Bos are 3-for-3; he talks a bit about Espinosa plus tools, his issues post first 1,000 at-bats, and then mirrors my statement of wanting him shutdown to heal for the rest of 2013.

Q: Shouldn’t Harper just be placed on the DL until he heals up enough that he won’t be missing a few games every week? The way they’re doing it, the team is short a player and a bat for two or three days on a regular basis, or has Harper playing at 70 percent

A: I agree. Harper‘s splits since running into the wall at the end of April are pretty distinct. April: 1.150 OPS. May: .687 OPS. And that was before Los Angeles. An now he’s got this knee issue. I think he needs a D/L trip, rest, sit in the hot tub for two weeks and come back refreshed. Between him and Espinosa and Detwiler the team has been playing 22 against 25 for days now. Boswell agrees; he thinks Harper should have been given the 7-day D/L stint when he hit the wall.

Q: Has anyone suggested Espinosa get his vision tested? He has absolutely no pitch recognition, he looks like the world’s [biggest] guess hitter.

A: I don’t think its his vision. I think he’s just an awful left-handed hitter, and unfortunately he takes most of his switch-hitting swings from the left side. He’s just lost at the plate. I went through a game like this once; the umpire’s zone was so unpredictable that I was just up at the plate swinging at whatever came. It was like BP when you know you’re only getting 10 swings and the pitcher sucks; swing at everything. Boswell says Espinosa has the worst plate discipline on the team, and talks about how Espinsoa is swinging before the ball even comes to the plate. Sounds familiar.

Q: With a lack luster offense, poor defense, a bullpen you can’t seem to count on and only two starters pitching well, why do you believe the Nats will turn it around?

A: Because of their upcoming schedule of course! Here’s my post on the topic on April 24th. The gist of it is this; by the time May 31st rolls around, the Nats will have played 27 of their 55 games against 2012 playoff contenders. Look at their season so far; they’ve played the Reds, the Braves, the Cardinals, the Reds again, 4 at Atlanta, the Tigers, at the Giants and now 4 straight against Baltimore. June and July are significantly easier. Look at the teams they play for the next 8 weeks; yes Cleveland and Arizona are improved, but a lot of the games on their slate are easy, winnable games. You can get confident quickly when you have a bunch of winnable games.

To this question specifically, the offense has absolutely been affected by injuries. People will get healthier. The Defense was great last year; what changed? If anything we’ve got a better defensive team now than in 2012 (replaced Morse with Span, replaced Flores with Suzuki). The bullpen is fixable; Storen has just been unlucky, not bad. Only 2 starters doing well? I’d say at least 3 are doing well (Strasburg, Detwiler and of course Zimmermann, one is inconsistent but at the high end when he’s on (Gonzalez) and one has been a pretty severe disappointment in Haren. My hope is that Haren slowly gets back to a 100 ERA+ level pitcher and then is left off the playoff roster. Boswell eventually talks about the schedule, but goes off on a huge Pecota Rest-of-Season projection tangent.

Q: Big day (maybe) for the Nationals future if Karns can establish himself as a future 3-4-5 starter. Everything I hear and read about him says he has plus stuff and makeup, and an especially good fastball. What are you looking for tonight vs. the Os and how many starts can we expect Karns to make?

A: I’m looking for Nathan Karns to make it through the lineup tonight against Baltimore giving up just a minimum of damage frankly. I don’t think Karns has a servicable 3rd pitch, which means he can get by on heat and his great slider for a while … but eventually Baltimore’s hitters are too good to get fooled more than twice. I’ll be ecstatic with a line like this: 6 ip, 2 runs, 5 hits, 2 walks, 6 k’s. I think he makes this start and perhaps 1 more before going back down when Detwiler returns. Boswell didn’t really answer the question. Editor Update: Karns had flashes of good and bad in last night’s game, going 4 1/3 and giving up 3 runs on 5 hits and two homers. Didn’t agree with Johnson’s yanking him and taking away his Win though.

Q: Are the Nats and Harper going the way of Shanahan and RGIII with this knee business OR will we see common sense prevail so we can see our best player Harper rest up and make a difference when it really counts? Didn’t Harper come to bat with the score already 5-1 (6-1 ?) , in the bottom 8th when the Nats already had a commanding lead?

A: Hardly the same situation. A brused knee from a foul ball versus a blown ACL? Come on. Must be someone begging the question. Boswell does have some criticism for the Harper handling considering the kid gloves that Strasburg has been handled with his whole career.

Q: Why are people praising Espinosa for being “tough” and playing through his broken wrist? He was HURTING the team, it’s time to sit down at that point!

A: Because we live in a macho football culture, and playing through pain is a football mentality. Boswell punts.

Q: The Nationals bats have not lived up to expectations. What move or moves could the Nationals make to get these bats going? Maybe a new hitting coach, an additional hitting coach, minor league players or some through a trade.

A: Why do people think hitting coaches make a difference? Is Rick Eckstein part of the problem here?

Actually, looking at the Nats starting eight hitters; four of them have OPS+ figures > 100 (meaning they’re better than MLB average). Suzuki is a bit below but he’s the catcher. Span has slowly started to be come a liability at the top; he’s only got a .332 OBP with zero power right now. Espinosa of course is the big black hole. So while we’re knowingly in a rut offensively … the individual pieces aren’t really that bad. There’s some bats in the minors but not much. We really have very little prospect depth that’s tradeable for a bat mid-season. This is your team ladies and gentlemen; get used to it. Boswell also says we have to ride it out, but points out that the team hasn’t been healthy and has replaced Morse’s ABs with almost zero production from our bench.

Q: Any early predictions as to who will be managing the Nats next season? Davey’s also dropped a couple of hints that his retirement isn’t entirely his idea. Assuming they don’t win the World Series and he gets to ride off into the sunset, any chance that he comes back next year?

A: I’m continually amazed at the amount of curiosity about the manager. Maybe Davey Johnson is back, maybe he isn’t. Maybe the team hires a name guy, maybe they hire from within. Lets focus on 2013 first. Boswell mentions Don Mattingly, as we’ve heard in the national media.

We havn’t done an Ask Tom Boswell chat response in a while; I started one from last week’s chat but ended up deleting it. Nothing really to add to what Boswell was responding.

Here’s the 4/29/13 edition, after an up and down week with the Nats; getting swept by St. Louis and then taking three of four from Cincinnati behind some of the best starting pitching we’ve seen in a while.

As always, I’ll write a response here before reading Boswell’s, and will edit questions for clarity.

Q: Did Strasburg learn anything from watching Gio’s and JZimm’s efficient starts against the Reds?

A: We talked a bit about Stephen Strasburg‘s issues last week in this space. I’m not sure what he could have learned from Gio Gonzalez and Jordan Zimmermann‘s consecutive 1-hit outings that he didn’t already know; get ahead of hitters, throw first-pitch strikes, use your whole arsenal. Cincinnati is a good hitting team, but Atlanta is better. At least we have the distinct pitching matchup advantage in game one (when the struggling Julio Teheran goes for Atlanta). Boswell repeats both my points here; first pitch strikes and a favorable Teheran matchup.

Q: Why is blocking the plate by the Catcher now suddenly such an issue?

A: I think it starts with the horrible injury suffered by Buster Posey; a needless debilitating injury that took out an MVP candidate and cost him a year off his career. Locally, we all remember Chase Utley‘s cheap shot on Jesus Flores, which essentially cost him two years and a job in the majors. And I think it is the general climate in sports today to try to avoid concussive injuries at all costs in the wake of the very scary CTE studies that are out there and may change the very fabric of Football as we know it. Every time there’s another injury, another collision the drumbeat gets louder. Just because catcher collisions have always been a part of the game doesn’t mean they’re right. I’m in favor of eliminating the play, and If I was a MLB manager i’d advise my catchers to give the runner half the plate and try to avoid injury. Boswell agrees.

Q: Why isn’t Solano catching any games?

A: Two reasons: Kurt Suzuki by virtue of the off/on schedule with Wilson Ramos for the first couple of weeks is relatively rested and can catch 6 straight days. The other? Jhonatan Solano just isn’t as good of an offensive option, and with the whole team struggling at the plate why put a guy in who is clearly overmatched? The guy only has about 100ABs above AA after all. Boswell says the last thing you should do when struggling is bench a veteran for a rookie, especially at catcher. Ramos returns from the DL tonight so its a moot point.

Q: If you were betting on a team to win the next World Championship in DC who would be that team?

A: You have to think its the Nats right? Redskins are lookup up with RGIII but aren’t a complete team yet and may be a couple years off (and no more salary cap penalties) from putting together a SB team. The Wizards may not be relevant for another decade. The Caps are hot and may go for a decent run in the NHL playoffs, but those series are such coin flips that if they couldn’t win when they were the league’s best regular season team, its hard to see why they’d win now. Lastly DC United is just getting back to some respectability after years of decline, but winning an MLS title over some of the powerhouses in the league is a tall order. Boswell says Nats, Caps, Skins. Doesn’t even mention the other two franchises

Q: Any chance Bud steps in ala with the Dodgers and Frank McCourt and forces Loria’s to sell the team?

A: I think there’s a chance, but something “illegal” would have to happen. Selig was able to force McCourt to sell when the league was being embarassed and the team was clearly suffering financially because of mis-management. Selig has allowed Loria to already do several unsavory things to fan bases in both Montreal and Miami, so its hard to see what else could happen. However, if this supposed SEC investigation finds real evidence of fraud and the team is sued, I can see Selig stepping in and forcing Loria out. Boswell doesn’t really answer the question.

Q: When he gets sent down next week, would you be surprised if he played second base exclusively given that Espinosa is now struggling with the bat and glove?

A: Anthony Rendon was ALREADY playing multiple positions in the minors this season, starting mostly at 3B but also getting a few games at 2B and at least one at SS. But I don’t think Rendon would be Danny Espinosa‘s replacement; Steve Lombardozzi would be. If Espinosa were to be sent to the DL, Lombardozzi starts and then Rendon probably gets called back up to provide some infield cover. Boswell thinks Rendon could make the transition, but needs more minor league time. He also talks a lot about Espinosa vs Lombardozzi and (in my opinion) overrates the defensive value of Espinosa a bit. In the age of rising strikeouts, it isn’t as important to have Gold Glove calibre fielders everywhere. This is just a partial answer that may need eventual expansion in a blog post of its own.

Q: Mr. Boswell, why did Davey insert Rendon instead of Lombardozzi (following Ryan’s injury) into the lineup and why did he not allow Tyler Moore to start Sunday with Cingrani on the bump?

A: Good questions, both. I think the team likes Rendon’s defense at 3B more than Lombardozzi or Chad Tracy, so that makes sense at least against lefties. Why didn’t Tyler Moore play against the tough lefty Tony Cingrani? I do not know. You could see Adam LaRoche‘s o-fer a mile away going against the second coming of Randy Johnson (Cingrani’s now has 37 Ks in 23 MLB innings). Perhaps veteran preference/veteran blind spot on the part of Davey Johnson? Boswell agrees at least with the LaRoche assessment.

Q: Have the Nats have over-managed Strasburg (in terms of pitch counts, innings limits and pitching to contact) since his injury and gotten into his head?

A: I don’t see Strasburg’s issues being a result of lack of confidence. If that was the case we’d be seeing 3ip-8 run explosions, not “first inning bad then lights out for the next 6 innings” outings. Have the Nats over-managed him? Perhaps; we know Strasburg didn’t like the 2012 shutdown but I supported it (as did the surgeon who performed the damn operation, nobody ever remembers). I think Strasburg also understands the value of getting hitters to hit your pitch instead of going for blow-em-away Ks every time. Call it “pitch to contact” but I like to call it “making them hit your pitch.” You want to try to get a great swing in after falling behind in the count? Fine; hit my 97mph inside fastball for power, or try to drive my 94mph sinking 2-seamer on the outside corner. I’ll tip my hat to you if you do.

But Strasburg misses his spots; his command has not been great. 97mph flat on the corner is good; in the middle of the plate is bad. He’s been missing in the middle way too much. Boswell defended his column, saying Strasburg needs to “keep it simple.”

Q: What does the team do with Henry Rodriguez?

A: So far this year we’re seeing nothing but “bad” Henry Rodriguez: more walks than hits, too many base-runners, and too many pitches that he just has no idea where they’re going. He only threw FOUR of Seventeen pitches yesterday for strikes. Luckily for him, its only a “wild pitch” if someone advances right? Because some of those pitches were just ridiculous. I’ll chalk it up to the wet conditions, as (likely) will management.

What can they do with him? As often repeated in this space, he’s a human roster logjam. The team has been forced to carry him and his Jeckyl and Hyde pitching for 3 years now because he was out of minor league options when we acquired him. We’ve invented nebulous DL trips to stash him in extended spring training. He’s now the lowest leverage guy on the bullpen, when he should be in the mix for 7th and 8th inning opportunities. But the thing is, there’s not really a guy in Syracuse who is beating down the door to come up. Maybe Erik Davis, who has pitched really well in AAA and has shown why the team put him on the 40-man. Or perhaps the team could call up one of its veteran lefties (Fernando Abad or JC Romero) in a pinch. But I think we’ll see at least another month of H-Rod trying to find his way before that happens.

Boswell raves about his career BAA (.211). To that I say this: he has now for his career walked 91 batters out of 606 plate appearances. That’s 15%. 6.1 bb/9. I’m sorry, but how can you have a reliever with those kind of walk rates be put into any close game? You can’t. So in my opinion there’s better ways to use the 7th bullpen slot.

Q: What’s a good ratio for balls to strikes?

A: I’ve always used 60% strikes to pitches thrown as a benchmark for a good outing. In Jordan Zimmermann‘s 1-hitter he threw 59 of 91 for strikes, or 64%. In Yu Darvish‘s near perfect game in early April he threw 78 of 111 pitches for strikes for 70%. Boswell says 65% is a good goal; honestly that’s a bit too high for me realistically.

Q: Do you think Soriano’s presence is helping or hurting Storen?

A: Good question. Drew Storen‘s struggles so far are really baffling; how do you go from a career 1.099 whip in your first 3 seasons to a 1.7 whip in 2013? And it isn’t on walks; he’s giving up a ton of hits. Perhaps it is mental; when Rafael Soriano himself has been a non-closer, his numbers have never been as good than when he’s getting the Saves. Perhaps Storen is struggling to adapt to this mindset so far. It also could just be small sample size syndrome too; its only April 29th after all. Boswell basically says that Storen isn’t a kid anymore and that he should “man up.”

Q: What are Harper’s MVP chances looking like right now?

A: Pretty good. MVP voting usually starts with “the best players on the best teams” and then whittles down from there. Bryce Harper is clearly the best hitter on what should be a playoff team, and has been making a game-wide name for himself so far with his performance. If Washington wins the division and Bryce keeps playing like this, he’s a shoe-in. However, some guy named Justin Upton has been just as strong; if Atlanta wins the division Upton may be the name people vote for.

With the slew of off-season activity nearly complete, I’ve updated some of the tracking worksheets that I maintain related to the Nats roster. From non-tenders, FA signings and re-signings, trades and Arbitration settlements a lot has changed in terms of the Nats payroll, expected WAR estimates and 40-man options statuses. All these resources are now updated in Google Docs. Links (which should also be along the right-hand side of the page):

Here’s the implications that the last few months have had in each case:

Nats WAR Estimate Impact: We last visited this topic on 1/3/13 and I had a 2013 fWAR best case estimate of 57.6, equating to a 103 win season. Now we’ve replaced Michael Morse‘s 3-win estimate with Adam LaRoche‘s 3.5 win estimate and added in Rafael Soriano‘s 1.2 fWAR estimate and are looking at a fWAR estimate of 59.1 and a 105 win capable team. As with before, this doesn’t mean i’m predicting 105 wins; i’m saying that if everyone plays to their potential and nobody gets hurt, its hard not to see this being a 105 win team as constructed.

Nats 2013 Payroll Impact: When we last visited this topic on 12/3/12, we were sitting on a 2013 estimated payroll of just $88M. Since then, we re-signed LaRoche, signed Dan Haren, stunningly signed Soriano and settled a slew of pre-arbitration settlements (most of which seemed to trend higher than MLB’s estimates for the players). I’m now estimating the Nats 2013 payroll to be $121,823,500 (but see the caveat in the next paragraph). There are still two payroll figures to be announced/decided: Zach Duke‘s 2013 pay has yet to be disclosed (I’m using an estimate of $1.5M) and Jordan Zimmermann was not able to settle with the team ahead of the filing deadline (i’m using an estimate of $4.9M for him). The team filed at $4.6M while Zimmermann filed at $5.8M, meaning they’re $1.2M apart at current. The midpoint would be $5.2M, meaning that the overall payroll could creep even higher and hit $122M.

Coincidentally, I’m not sure how to treat Soriano’s deal from a payroll perspective. 2 years, $28M but as we’ve learned half that money is deferred. The spreadsheet shows it as a $14M aav contract but he’s only being paid $7M this year. With the deferred money, the calculated AAV of the contract is only in the $11M/year range. Cots shows $14M/year right now on its main page, but it hasn’t fixed its internal google XLS’s yet. I think the right way to go would be to show $7M being paid this year and next, and then when the deferred payments kick in show them as the annual $2M payments that they’ll be. So maybe the current payroll isn’t $121M but closer to $114M. I’ll be curious to see how the sites like Cots and Usatoday (the two main sites that publish team payroll figures) treat this contract going forward.

Option Status: We last visited this topic on 11/14/12, before the non-tenders of Flores, Lannan and Gorzelanny, before the Rule-5 additions and before all the signings. New signings Haren and Soriano are both 5+ year vets so Options don’t matter. Interestingly, Duke has 6+ years of service time and signed a MLB deal, meaning he cannot be assigned to AAA withouth is consent and/or passing through waivers; the team is clearly counting on him to be in the MLB bullpen the whole year. The most interesting options cases now belong to Ryan Mattheus and Craig Stammen, both of whom have options and both of whom (despite Stammen’s new 2 year deal) could be affected by the crowded bullpen. I think we’re all under the assumption that Christian Garcia is starting the year in AAA; he has 3 options to use and may be on the train back and forth often in 2013. I remain curious as to what the team will do with Carlos Rivero, who hit well in AAA and even better in winter ball, but has no options remaining and doesn’t have a single day of MLB service time.

Lastly (unrelated to the Nats), I’ve updated somewhat my “Best versus Winner” xls with the results from the NFL playoffs over the weekend. For the 9th straight year in the NFL, the Superbowl winner will NOT be the team that also had the best regular season record. This year, Denver and Atlanta shared the best regular season record and both were eliminated before reaching the Superbowl. I keep track of this particular finding for all four major sports and generally have found that very infrequently does the team with the best record in any sport actually take the year end title any more. Baseball has only seen it a few times in the last 20 years.

I’ve got a draft post that has an overview of all the random documents and spreadsheets that I’ve uploaded to Google Docs over the years (including the 4 discussed in this post). I”ll publish it during a slow period this winter.

I read a quickie piece with some Mike Rizzo quotes from the Washington Time’s beat reporter Amanda Comak on November 11th, 2012 and there was an interesting tidbit at the bottom: per Comak, Rizzo has not been approached yet about any Washington Nationals participation in the WBC, but would approach each request on a “case-by-case basis” to determine what is in the best interests of the team. This got me thinking about possible Nats representatives on 2013 WBC teams.

Lets take a quick look at the Nationals representatives on WBC teams from the past, talk about whether its really in the best interests of the team to even let these guys play, and then talk about who may be candidates for the 2013 WBC regardless.

The tournament was marred for the team by a blown UCL ligament to Ayala, who had undergone elbow surgery earlier in the off-season but pitched for his home country anyway. The team did not want Ayala to participate in the inaugural event, did not want him used by the Mexican team, and team officials were “livid” by the injury, which cost Ayala the season and cost the team its 8th inning setup guy. Ayala recovered to pitch again in 2008 but was never as effective, and was shipped out in 2009 for a PTBNL. Coincidentally, I suspect the team still harbors some ill-will towards Ayala to this day. Meanwhile the other two relievers who participated both experienced regressions in form; Cordero’s ERA nearly doubled (from 1.82 to 3.19) from his breakout 2005 season while Majewski’s numbers dipped slightly before he was traded in the big Cincinnati deal of 2006.

The WBC seemed to energize particularly Dunn, who enjoyed playing in a post-season atmosphere for the first (and only) time in his career. Nobody suffered any injuries, but Hanrahan in particular may have been affected by his lack of a proper spring training; he posted a 7.71 ERA for the team while losing the closer spot and was shipped to Pittsburgh. Ironically, Rivera also experienced a huge regression of form, going from a 3.96 ERA in 2008 to a 6.10 ERA in 2009 and was eventually released.

This begs the question; do we even WANT our pitchers playing on this team? The first two WBCs have shown pretty distinctly that our pitchers have regressed greatly after playing. This only makes sense: the spring training routines are greatly impacted to play in this event. We may see a ton of front-office resistance to specific guys (especially those coming off injury) playing in the 2013 event. Which could affect the eligibility of some specific players for 2013.

Now, which Nats may play for the 2013 teams? First off, looking at the Nationals 40-man roster, we have become an amazingly heavy USA-born team (we’ll get to non-40man roster players in a moment). Thanks to the Nats big board resource (originated by Brian Oliver and now maintained by “SpringfieldFan”), which has the country of origin for players, here’s a breakdown of the home-country of our current 36 active (as of November 15th, 2012) roster players:

As you can see, the massive bulk of our team is USA born, and essentially our entire post-season starting roster was USA born as well. That doesn’t necessarily mean that these USA-born players will actually play for team USA (Alex Rodriguez played for Puerto Rico despite being born and raised in Miami, and our own Danny Espinosa is eligible to play for Mexico by virtue of his first-generation born in the US status), but almost all of these guys will be up for consideration for the USA team. And this only accounts for our 40-man players; as we’ll see below there’s plenty of lower-minors players from smaller countries that will participate.

Who from the Nationals franchise may make a 2013 WBC roster? First off, thanks to James Wagner‘s 11/15/12 NatsJournal post we already know of three WBC participants; Solano is on the Columbian team, minor leaguer Jimmy Van Ostrand is on the Canadian team, and A-ball catcher Adrian Nieto is on the Spanish team. Curacao qualifies to play with the Netherlands, and I’d guess that Bernadina would make a great choice considering the lack of Dutch players in baseball (Baseball Continuum’s projections agree. And as of 12/4/12 he’s officially been listed as a Netherlands participant).. Venezuela is already qualified for the main draw and has a relatively strong possible team. The Baseball Continuum blog posted an early projection of the Venezuelan team and listed Flores as a likely participant (specifically mentioning that Ramos wasn’t considered due to injury recovery; I’d suspect these two players to switch based on Ramos’ recovery and Flores’ awful 2012). If Henry Rodriguez was healthy i’d guess he would be on that list too, but his season-ending surgery probably precludes his participation. The Dominican Republic has perhaps the strongest depth and has no need for the recently called up Perez among its outfield depth. Maya’s defection eliminates him from discussion for the Cuban team. (12/4/12 update): Chien-Ming Wanghas been announced as a member of Chinese Taipei’s team (for the purposes of this article I investigated all 2012 Nats).

Which leaves our large contingent of American players. A couple of writers have started postulating on these rosters (David Schoenfield‘s very early guess as to a potential USA roster is here, Baseball Continuum’s latest projection is here). So using these two posts as a starting point, lets go position-by-position and give some thoughts as to who may get some consideration. Keep in mind the WBC rosters are generally very reliever heavy, since no starter is going to be “allowed” to pitch a complete game in March.

(Note: I’m still considering our Free Agents as “Nats players” for the purposes of this analysis, since this really goes position by position from our 2012 team to find candidates).

Catcher:Kurt Suzuki isn’t nearly in the class of the likes of Buster Posey, Brian McCann, Joe Mauer, or Matt Weiters. There are a ton of quality american backstops right now.

First Base: Free Agent Adam LaRoche probably faces far too much competition from the likes of Prince Fielder, Paul Konerko, Adam Dunn, Allen Craig, Eric Hosmer, and Mark Teixeira to make this team. If it were me, I’d go with Fielder and Teixeira. But, LaRoche’s great 2012 season and his Gold Glove recognition may get him a spot. He is a FA though, so i’d guess he won’t commit until he signs and gets the go-ahead from his new team. Or, perhaps he uses the WBC to showcase himself? Not likely needed; he should sign long before the WBC kicks off in March.

Second Base: Danny Espinosa is a decent player, but not in the same league as Shoenfield’s projection of Dustin Pedroia and Ben Zobrist. Brandon Phillips is also in the mix for the team.

Shortstop: Ian Desmond‘s breakout 2013 season may get him some consideration. There’s not a lot of American quality short stops out there. Troy Tulowitzki is the obvious leading choice (as was Derek Jeter in the first two WBCs), but is he ready to come back from injury? Looking around the majors there are a couple other possibilities (JJ Hardy, Brendan Ryan, Jimmy Rollins and Brandon Crawford all could be alternatives as well). I think Desmond’s combination of offense and defense, combined with Tulowitzki’s injury recovery could get him on the team.

Third Base: Ryan Zimmerman cannot break the hegomony of David Wright and Evan Longoria right now, even given Longoria’s injury struggles this season. Chase Headley and David Freese are also in the 3b mix. 12/4/12 update: Apparently Wright is committed, Longoria is out due to injury recovery and Headley “was not asked,” so perhaps Zimmerman is back in the mix.

Outfielders: I think Bryce Harper is a natural to make this team, not only on talent but also because of the brand-name recognition (and TV ratings and fan interest) it would generate. Same goes for Mike Trout. Otherwise there’s a slew of top-end american players who can man the outfield and they read like the top of the MVP boards: Braun, Kemp, McCutchen, Stanton, Hamilton, and Granderson are all candidates to make this team. 12/6/12 update: Scott Boras has stated that Harper will skip the WBC to focus on his sophomore season.

Starters: The two logical Nats candidates to be considered would be Gio Gonzalez and Stephen Strasburg. But lets be honest; there is no way in hell Strasburg would be allowed to play. Could Gonzalez make this team? Given the depth of American starter talent right now (just off the top of my head: Verlander, Lincecum, Cain, Hamels, Halladay, Kershaw, Lee, Weaver, Sabathia, Medlen, and so on) perhaps this will be a selection of attrition moreso than a selection of availability. So if a number of the older guys on this list beg out, perhaps Gio gets his shot. The WBC’s location in San Francisco has already lead to Ryan Vogelsong committing to play in his home town, and could lead to other Bay Area players signing up. I’m not sure any of the rest of our starters are really candidates, given the reputations of the above list plus the reliever-heavy nature of the roster.

Relievers: our two most well known relievers (Tyler Clippard and Drew Storen) are possibilities; would the Nats block Storen based on his 2012 injury? Craig Stammen‘s breakout 2012 season could get him looks, based on the reliever-heavy needs of the team. Normally Sean Burnett may be in the loogy mix, but there’s better lefty relievers out there AND Burnett’s FA status may lead him to bow out to curry favor to his new team (Schoenfeld lists Burnett as a possible member back in July, before knowing he’s declared free agency). The question is, would you take Clippard/Storen against the likes of this list of quality american back-of-the-bullpen arms: Kimbrel, Ventors, Marshall, League, Janssen, Papelbon, Hanrahan, Motte, Boggs, Bailey, Reed, and Nathan? Possibly, considering that a lot of these guys probably bow out. We’ve sent multiple relievers to each of the past two WBCs and its likely going to be the same thing this year.

Summary: here’s my guesses as to which Nats (and recent ex-Nats) will play in the WBC:

March 2013 update: here’s the post-WBC actual list of participants when all was said and done, helped by the list of rosters via Wikipedia. MLB reports that nine (9) Nationals are participating in the classic, though the below list (excluding Wang) totals more. They’re not counting Solano/Columbia, having lost in the preliminaries.

In part I on this topic yesterday, we talked about the Nats Rule 5 draft history. Today we’ll talk about Parts II and III: who the Nats may think about protecting ahead of this year’s Rule 5 draft, and what the team may be seeking if they participated and drafted a player or two in the Rule 5 draft themselves.

Part II: Nationals Rule-5 Draft Protection Candidates.

I kvetched a little bit about this topic in this space earlier this off-season, talking about the lack of roster space for the upcoming Rule 5 draft. I suspected that as a result of MLB deals given to guys like Anthony Rendon and Matthew Purke, in addition to the glut of guys we had to add mid season, we may be seeing some guys not getting protected this year that would be in other years. As of today, the Nats 40-man roster sits at 36 players with a bit of immediate room to spare (we could non-tender the likes of John Lannan, Tom Gorzelanny or Jesus Flores (speaking of Rule 5 additions) in a pinch, and I think Carlos Rivero may be imminently DFA’d), but we also have several 25-man roster spots departing via free agency that need to be filled, quickly filling back in those empty spots. So, perhaps the issue isn’t as bad as I thought it might be.

That being said, here’s a look at some of our Rule 5 eligible guys that may warrant protection. For “official” opinions here’s Mark Zuckerman‘s Rule5 post, along with Adam Kilgore‘s version of the same analysis. This is a combination of first-time eligible guys for the 2012 draft (mostly, guys who were college junior draftees from 2009 or high school draftees in 2008), prior year eligible guys who have suddenly worked their way onto the radar, and any International FA signing from 2008 or before (they are treated the same way as high school age draftees). Working off a list that Luke Erickson posted LAST november, along with his post on the same topic this week, and of course referencing the two great nats farm system resources maintained by “SpringfieldFan” (and formerly by Brian Oliver): the Nats Draft Tracker and the Nats Big Board, here’s some thoughts on protection candidates:

Stronger Candidates to protect

Nathan Karns: he finally had an injury-free season, and he put up numbers as expected when the team gave him an above-slot deal in 2009. He is older, and only projects as a AA starter in 2013, but he is an intriguing starter prospect for the Nats in 2014.

Destin Hood: I don’t think the team is ready to give up on the long-term 2008 2nd round project. His numbers have been increasing as he reportedly is learning the game better. I suspect the team protects him to protect their investment.

Danny Rosenbaum; the “Ace” of Harrisburg this year, and our furthest advanced legitimate starter prospect, Rosenbaum projects more like a Tommy Milone or John Lannan right now. I’d suspect that the team may protect him, thinking that someone could stash him as a loogy for a year. I’m not sure his ceiling is in the Nats rotation, but he could be a good trade candidate. He hit the DL late last year, which makes it slightly less likely that a team would take a flier on him, but his track record warrants his mention.

Patrick McCoy: he just repeated AA and despite already being Rule-5 eligible last year he improved on his numbers in 2012. Why protect him? Because this team needs a Loogy, and McCoy may be the leading lefty reliever in our upper-minor leagues.

Jeff Kobernus has put up consistent numbers his whole career, but still projects as a power-less middle infielder. Would the team protect him, thinking he has a chance to become the next Steve Lombardozzi? Would the team protect him just to protect their bonus money?

Weaker candidates to protect

Trevor Holder: a 3rd round pick roundly criticized at the time of being an underslot money saver, Holder had decent peripherals in high-A and AA this year. But, he doesn’t seem to project as the dominant right-hander he was in college and seems likely to top out as an org-arm. Despite his 3rd round pedigree, I don’t see a team taking a flier on him in rule-5.

Pat Lehman; a local guy (GWU), but despite having good numbers in AAA he remains a very common commodity; a right handed minor league reliever. Even if he’s drafted, it isn’t that great a loss because of the depth we already have at the position.

Paul Demny; despite making the AFL team this year, I don’t quite see Demny as being a draft risk. His ERA this year and in years past has been substandard.

Robert Gilliam; only really mentioned here since we just acquired him last off-season in the Gio Gonzalez trade and the team probably doesn’t want to lose him, but his 6.37 ERA in AA makes it extremely unlikely someone grabs him in the Rule 5.

Erik Davis: technically rule-5 eligible last year, he stepped up this year and put up pretty dominant AA numbers. As with Lehman, he’s a righty reliever in AA so the odds of his getting picked (or protected) seem slim.

Players not worth protecting for various Reasons

Now, there’s a bunch of “good names” that are Rule 5 eligible in our system but who are not listed here, including guys who toiled as high as AA last year. Anyone not listed here is probably not going to be missed, even if they are drafted. Plus, the likelihood of a decent pitcher prospect who has never played above A-ball being drafted in rule-5 is extemely slim. Most of the guys above are mentioned because of their capability to be “stashed” on a MLB roster. This includes:

last year’s departures Brad Meyers (coming off injury) and Erik Komatsu (clearly been passed on the organizational OF depth chart). Yes they got picked last year, but both got returned and I’d be surprised to see them picked again.

Jeff Mandel may be an accomplished AAA pitcher, but I don’t think he’s anything more than that.

Rob Wort hasn’t advanced far enough up the chain to be considered.

Justin Bloxom could be a dark horse prospect next year, but only made it to AA the second half of last year.

Who would I protect, If I was the GM? I’d protect Karns, Hood, Rosenbaum and McCoy right now, filling the four current openings on the roster. If a move needs to be made (a FA signing or a trade), then you make one-for-one DFAs or non-tenders as needed. You have 40-man room; might as well use it. My order of protection is probably Karns, McCoy, Hood and Rosenbaum (from most important to least important to protect). Odds are that the team only opts to protect a couple of guys to give immediate roster flexibility heading into the winter meetings.

Part III:Might the Nats participate in the Rule-5 draft this year?

This year’s Rule 5 draft has some intrigue for the team; unlike last year, we have definite holes in the bullpen and on the roster which can be “more easily” filled via the Rule 5 draft. We need a lefty out of the bullpen, we need a backup middle infielder and we need a 5th starter. The odds of finding the latter in the rule 5 draft are very slim, but the odds of finding one of the first two are better. If you look at the last couple of Rule 5 drafts, nearly every player drafted is either a Pitcher or a Middle Infielder. Most teams carry a second backup middle infielder who gets very little playing time, ideal for “hiding” rule 5 draftees. And of course every bullpen has a “mop up” guy who pitches once or twice a week in low-leverage situations, also a great place to hide a rule-5 guy.

Besides, the “penalty” for drafting a guy and returning him is pretty small in baseball terms: $25,000 net (it costs $50,000 fee to select a player, then if you “offer” them back the original team has to refund $25,000 of that fee). So I’d be surprised honestly if the team didn’t roll the dice with at least a flier on either of the two needs mentioned above.

Personally, I’m not a big fan of the Rule 5 draft any longer. It was created as a way to liberate players who were stuck in farm systems behind established players (much the way that minor league free agency rules attempted to do the same), but now seems to be a cheap method of teams to get an extended tryout of players. I’ve now come to believe that the draft is not necessarily in the best interests of the players or the teams; just read below for the organizational transaction chaos that followed players. It also seems like a high number of players who get drafted in rule-5 immediately suffer season-ending injuries; coincidence or correlation? If you’re a rule-5 drafted arm, the drafting team knows you must perform at a MLB level to stay in the organization. Wouldn’t that imply there’s added pressure to compete, leading to overthrowing and arm injuries? Plus, teams that lose players often get them returned damaged and having lost a season of service time. I suppose players are the ones that are pro-Rule 5 draft, in that it immediately means a promotion to the 40-man roster, MLB service time and higher pay.

In the end, it makes for a good reason to write a 2,500 word blog post, and it may result in our team having new prospects to evaluate and dream about, so perhaps I protest too much.

Tyler Clippard faces what could be a very interesting arbitration case this offseason. Photo Jonathan Newton/wp.com

Once the dust settled on this year’s Super-2 cutoff (and we discovered that Drew Storen will be arbitration eligible this year while Ryan Perry will not), the Nats will have no less than TEN arbitration-eligible players this off-season, setting the stage for some non-tender decisions, some possible contract extensions, and (hopefully not) some arbitration cases. The Non-tender deadline isn’t until November 30th, but its never too soon to talk about what the team may do.

Here’s the 10 players eligible, a discussion as to what kind of salary they may obtain and whether or not the team will even tender a contract. Note: the salary estimates are from mlbtraderumors Matt Swartz‘s arbitration projections model, with my own thoughts adjusting up or down based on opinion and noted as such). Arbitration salaries essentially try to project the full FA value of a player and then award 40%/60%/80% of that FA salary in each of the three typical arbitration years. For guys getting a 4th, I generally assume they’re getting nearly 100% of their FA value in the last year.

Locks to get a Contract Tender

Ian Desmond. 1st year Eligible/$3.2M estimate: Breakout season in 2012 will earn him plenty of dollars in his first and subsequent arbitration cases. $3.2M equates to nearly a $10M/year full FA value, probably fair for now but could escalate if Desmond continues to provide Gold Glove calibre defense to go along with middle-of-the-order power. It may be slightly early to think about a longer-term contract extension for Desmond; I’d want to wait and see if his 2012 production continues into 2013. Remember; he’s just one year removed from a time when most Nats fans wanted him replaced.

Drew Storen: 1st year Eligible/$1.7M estimate: Storen will get a 4th year of eligiblity by virtue of a quick call-up after getting drafted. $1.7 over 4 arb years equates roughly to a FA value of $7M/year, which seems a bit low for a good closer. I’d guess Storen could get slightly more money, though the team probably argues that his injuries in 2012 prevented him from giving full value, and is probably why he’s estimated at $1.7 instead of nearer to the $4M that Chad Cordero got his first arb year with this team. Rizzo has dangled Storen in trade talks in the past, but seems likely to keep him (at the possible expense of Clippard) for the coming season.

Craig Stammen: 1st year Eligible/$900k estimate: Another super-2 guy who was incredibly valuable to the team this year. I’d guess he’ll get more than 900k despite his role as a middle reliever, since 900k is barely more than the typical veteran minimum (which is roughly $800k, what Mark DeRosa made in 2012). Though, 900k equates to roughly a $3.5M FA value, which seems high for the kind of middle relief right-hander that are a dime a dozen in this league. I’d guess Stammen is the right kind of guy for the team to buy out a couple of arbitration years, much as they did with Sean Burnett a couple years ago. But, being a fungible middle-relief arm, don’t look for anything other than a 2 year deal so the team is protected in case of injury.

Jordan Zimmermann: 2nd year eligible, $4.9M estimate: Another super-2 guy who will get a 4th year of arbitration, this estimate also seems low considering the season that Zimmerman just put in. It also roughly equates his FA value at roughly $10M a year, which I’d guess is also undervaluing Zimmermann. Ask yourself; if he was on the open market, you’d have to think he’s getting more than $10M/year (point of comparison: Kyle Lohse turned down a 13.3M qualifying option and may get 4/60; who would you rather have?)

Tyler Clippard: 2nd year eligible, $4.6M estimate: I see this estimate as high frankly, as being too much of a raise over his 2012 salary of $1.625 despite his being the closer most this year. Clippard said it himself; its better to be the closer, get the saves and get the salary. But $4.6M for a setup guy is way too hefty. If Clippard comes in this high with his demand, look for an ugly arbitration hearing. Honestly, I could see Clippard being a trade candidate and making this arbitration decision someone else’s headache, and the team goes into 2013 with Storen firmly entrenched as the closer with the likes of Mattheus, Garcia and Henry Rodriguez vying for the 8th inning role.

Ross Detwiler: 1st year eligible, $2.2M estimate: This seems right in line with what Jordan Zimmermann got last year ($2.3M in his first eligible year). A successful young starter going through this process the first time.

Roger Bernadina: 1st year eligible, $1.1M estimate: A year ago I thought Bernadina was going to get DFA’d at the end of spring training. Now I wonder if he’s got enough value to be flipped in trade after a standout season for this team as its 4th outfielder. $1.1m is very reasonable for a 4th outfielder with his defensive skills, so don’t be surprised to see Bernadina remain in this role with the team for several years.

Most likely Non-Tender candidates

Jesus Flores: 4th year eligible, $1.2M estimate. Flores represents an interesting test case. Clearly he no longer has a 25-man catcher spot, having fallen behind both Wilson Ramos and Kurt Suzuki on the depth chart. The team also has shown itself to have decent rising catcher depth in the likes of Sandy Leon and Jhonatan Solano. And Flores really regressed this year both offensively and defensively, so much so that the team had to go out and acquire Suzuki late in the season. So I completely understand those that think that Flores is a non-tender candidate. BUT, you don’t just cut loose valuable commodities, and a healthy catcher who can serve as a backup in the majors is still worth keeping. That being said (as I reported in an earlier post), Flores seems to have achieved 5 service years, meaning that despite his option availability he’d have to agree to be assigned to AAA. Which means his flexibility is completely compromised for this team in 2013. The only remaining reason to sign him would be as insurance in case Suzuki or Ramos get hurt in spring training. If he doesn’t get traded in the next two weeks, look for a non-tender.

Tom Gorzelanny: 4th year eligible, $2.8M estimate. I’m not sure I agree with the MLBtraderumor estimate here, because the likelihood of players getting pay DECREASES in arbitration is pretty slim. Its not like Gorzelanny posted a 6.00 ERA in 2012 after all. Gorzelanny made $3M in 2012, where he predominantly served as our long-man/mop-up guy out of the pen. The question the team has to ask itself is this; is $3M too expensive for the last guy out of the pen? I believe it is, and thus I believe Gorzelanny is destined to get non-tendered. I believe the team likes him but his salary isn’t matching up to his role any longer, so I see him being forced to take a significant salary cut if he wanted to stay here. Were I the Nationals, I’d rather take a shot at a MLB-minimum guy (or even a rule-5 guy) in that mop-up role. The only thing that gives me pause in declaring that the team is ready to cut ties with a lefty reliever is the apparent sky-high cost of lefty relievers on the market; Jeremy Affeldt just signed a 3 year $18M deal to stay with San Francisco. Would this contract convince the Nats management that perhaps Gorzelanny is a player worth hanging on to?

John Lannan: 3rd year eligible, $5M estimate. There are two schools of thought with Lannan in the Natmosphere right now. One group believes that the team will let Edwin Jackson walk, Lannan will naturally take his place as the 5th starter and the team won’t pursue any starter talent in trade or in free agency. The other school of thought (and the one to which I subscribe to) states that Mike Rizzo values power arms and doesn’t rate Lannan at all, that $5M (which I think is a low estimate if he were to actually reach arbitration) is far too expensive for a soft-tossing 5th starter, and that the team will be actively searching for a 5th power arm to replace Jackson in the rotation. I think the team would rather take that $5M+ and use it to pay an acquisition versus continuing to fund Lannan’s sub 100 ERA+ exploits. This opinion ignores the rising cost of lefty starters, and the relative dearth of quality starts on the FA market, so perhaps the Nats hang on to him one more year.

Having so many arbitration eligible guys means that the Nats payroll will take a significant hit. Assuming that the team tenders the above 8 players (including Flores), here’s what the payroll implication will be:

Player

2011 salary

2012 estimate

Desmond

$512,500

$3,200,000

Storen

$498,750

$1,700,000

Stammen

$485,000

$900,000

Zimmermann

$2,300,000

$4,900,000

Clippard

$1,650,000

$4,600,000

Detwiler

$485,000

$2,200,000

Bernadina

$493,500

$1,100,000

Flores

$815,000

$1,200,000

subttl

$7,239,750

$19,800,000

Gorzelanny

$3,000,000

$2,800,000

Lannan

$5,000,000

$5,000,000

The team needs to plan on paying more than twice it did in 2013 for the services of the top 8 arbitration eligible players in 2012. Most of that money can be made up by non-tendering both Gorzelanny and Lannan … except that those players would need to then be replaced on the roster. Still, getting these 8 players for less than $20M a year while the Yankees owe Alex Rodriguez $28M for 2013 alone sort of puts things in context. It is a good problem to have, having to pay your arbitration-eligible stars more and more each year.

Jesus Flores achieved 5 full years of service time in 2012, complicating his roster status going forward. Photo Toni Sandys/Washington Post

In the process of opining on some preliminary Nats hot-stove moves this coming off-season, I found myself asking certain service-time/options questions about players on the 40-man roster.

So, I took the time to create a Spreadsheet of all Nats 40-man roster players with Options status for the coming season (well, actually update a version I had of this information from last year). I also tried to update everyone’s service time to what it should stand at at the end of the 2012 season (though honestly some of the service time calculations, especially for someone bounced up and down this year like Corey Brown, can be tricky).

I know that Luke Erickson‘s Nats Big Board has an “Options Status” tab, and I didn’t mean to circumvent the work there; i’m just not sure whether it has been updated for the coming season. The big board Options tab also has some helpful links to decipher some of the options ramifications, especially the tricky 4th option (which will notably come into play for several of our guys very soon, as discussed below).

Nonetheless, if I have the Options statuses and Service time calculations correctly done, there are some interesting roster management moves on the horizon. The below analysis includes a disputed 4th option for Ryan Perry; I’m pretty confident I’m correct in determining his option status but will caveat that opinion (and this whole article) by reminding the reader that I’m not in fact a professional baseball executive and may have a couple of these calculations wrong.

Here’s a full list of our current 36 40-man players (this is where we stand as of today, post FA declarations of our seven free agents plus the reverting of our former three 60-day DL guys to the 40-man roster). I’ve got these players divided into four categories, with some discussion after each:

Category 1: Vets who can refuse demotion (5 or more years of service)

Players in this category and their service time at the end of 2012:

Name

Svc Time

First Added to 40-man

Option Years Used

# Ops Left

Gorzelanny, Tom

5.16

Sept 2005

2006, 2008, 2009

0

Flores, Jesus

5.079

Dec 2006

2008, 2011

1

Suzuki, Kurt

5.113

Jun 2007

none

3

Tracy, Chad

7.000

Nov 2004?

?

?

Zimmerman, Ryan

7.032

Sep 2005

none

3

Morse, Michael

5.114

Nov 2004

2005, 2006, 2007

0

Werth, Jayson

9.102

Nov 2002?

?

?

Discussion: Most of the guys on this list are no-brainer core pieces of the team in 2013 and beyond, but two names in particular raise interesting questions. First Tom Gorzelanny has now achieved enough MLB time so that he cannot be sent down without his permission, but that was largely irrelevant based on his lack of options anyway. He remains a non-tender candidate because of his expected raise from his 2012 $3M salary given his role as long-man/mop-up guy for the team (well, that is unless you’ve seen the price of left-handed relief on the FA market this off-season … maybe he’s NOT a non-tender candidate). The bigger surprise on this list is Jesus Flores, who I believe achieved his 5th full service year in 2012 and now (despite having a minor league option left) can refuse an assignment to AAA. This represents an interesting decision for the team, who clearly has Suzuki and Ramos as its #1/#2 catchers. Most think he’s also a clear non-tender candidate for 2013, but I tend to think that he’s a valuable commodity worth tendering a contract. Despite his poor batting in 2012 (slash line of .213/.248/.329) there is a market for backup catchers in this league, especially ones that once showed the hitting promise that Flores has (a slash line of .301/.371/.505 in the early part of 2009 prior to his injuries). Maybe this service time issue becomes the straw that breaks the camel’s back of his tendering decision; if we tender him, we’ll immediately have to trade him because he’ll likely refuse an assignment and be declared a free agent if he doesn’t make the 2013 team. Perhaps the team cuts bait on him before having their hand forced.

Category 2: Players with Options but who are entrenched on the 25-man roster for 2013

Name

Svc Time

First Added to 40-man

Option Years Used

# Ops Left

Gonzalez, Gio

3.162

Aug 2008

2009

2

Mattheus, Ryan

1.111

June 2011

none

3

Storen, Drew

2.140

May 2010

none

3

Strasburg, Stephen

2.118

Aug 2009

2010

2

Zimmermann, Jordan

3.154

Apr 2009

2010

2

Ramos, Wilson

2.047

Nov 2008

2009, 2010

1

Desmond, Ian

3.027

Nov 2008

2009

2

Espinosa, Danny

2.033

Sep 2010

none

3

Lombardozzi, Steve

1.023

Sep 2011

none

3

Harper, Bryce

0.152

Aug 2010

2011, 2012

1

Moore, Tyler

0.113

Nov 2011

2012

2

Discussion; the likelihood of seeing any of these guys optioned to the minors in 2013 seems slim; mostly they are starters and key players for the team going forward. That being said, John Lannan‘s surprise demotion in 2010 while he struggled was enabled by his options availability, and a struggling player like Moore or Lombardozzi could be sent down to make room if need be.

Category 3: Players whose Options almost guaranteed to be used in 2013

Name

Svc Time

First Added to 40-man

Option Years Used

# Ops Left

Kimball, Cole

0.138

Nov 2010

2011, 2012

1

Maya, Yunesky

0.070

July 2010

2010, 2011, 2012

1?

Perry, Ryan

2.142

Apr 2009

2009, 2011, 2012

1?

Purke, Matthew

0.000

Aug 2011

2012

2

Leon, Sandy

0.096

May 2012

2012

3

Solano, Jhonatan

0.092

Nov 2011

2012

2

Marrero, Chris

0.033

Nov 2010

2011, 2012

1

Rendon, Anthony

0.000

Aug 2011

2012

2

Perez, Eury

0.030

Nov 2011

2012

2

Discussion; This list is where some of the 4th option availability comes into play. First Yunesky Maya has already used 3 options but clearly isn’t in the plans of the team for 2013 (the final year of his 4yr/$8M wasted contract). But, if I read the options rules correctly his lack of achieving 5 professional seasons will give him a 4th option, which is likely to be used for 2013. The same goes with Ryan Perry, who was drafted in 2008 but made the Tiger’s MLB roster in 2009, nearly out of Spring Training, meaning he’s just finishing his 4th professional season. This means (as was pointed out by a reader a few posts ago) he’s eligible for a 4th option, which is likely to be used as Perry continues to remake himself as a starter. (Note: the 4th option validity for Perry has been questioned here and there and revolves around 2010, when I don’t believe he was optioned). I see him being in the AAA rotation and serving as injury insurance for the MLB rotation. Marrero and Kimball are both in the same boat; they both missed all (or most) of 2012, burning an option in the process, and unless the organization makes the decision to designate them to make room on the 40-man they will each burn their last minor league option in 2013. The rest of these players are working their way up the minor league system, or in the case of Matthew Purke, hopefully working their way back into 100% health.

Discussion: I probably should have put Stammen into the 2nd category of players, based on his breakout 2012 performance. Lannan is a likely non-tender after getting the surprising option to Syracuse in 2012 and demanding a trade; however if he’s offered arbitration he can have the same thing happen to him again in 2013, serving as a multi-millionare AAA starter/insurance policy. The question is whether or not the team wants to spend money in that fashion. It remains to be seen what the team does with Garcia; numerous reports talk of him converting to a starter. If so, his options availability would allow the team to send him to AAA to hone his craft were he to not be ready for a rotation spot out of spring training. Lastly Brown seems stuck in 4-A status right now, having cleaned up in AAA but struggled at the MLB level. Perhaps he’s also a “guarantee” to be optioned in 2013 and belonging in the 3rd category; I put him here only because the Nats outfield situation remains in so much flux. If LaRoche walks, Morse likely moves to first, Moore likely starts in left (absent another FA outfielder signing or other acquisition), Bernadina continues as the 4th outfielder and the team may possibly need a 5th outfielder candidate. Brown is a lefty though, and the team has already invested in a lefty bench bat in Chad Tracy, so perhaps this works against him. There’s so much yet to be decided though, its hard to guess how it will shake out.

Category 5: Players with no options left

Name

Svc Time

First Added to 40-man

Option Years Used

# Ops Left

Clippard, Tyler

3.148

May 2007

2007, 2008, 2009

0

Detwiler, Ross

3.002

Sept 2007

2008, 2009, 2011

0

Rodriguez, Henry

2.114

Nov 2007

2008, 2009, 2010

0

Rivero, Carlos

0.000

Nov 2009

2010, 2011, 2012

0

Bernadina, Roger

3.146

Oct 2007

2008, 2009, 2011

0

Discussion: The main player that has a worry here is Carlos Rivero, claimed off waivers from Philadelphia and who burned his last option in 2012 without even getting a Sept 1 call up. He had a decent season in AAA (.303/.347/.435) but seems to be without a position (he played 3rd primarily in AAA and doesn’t seem to have another position). I’m guessing he’s DFA’d this off-season and the team attempts to re-sign him to a minor league contract. Henry Rodriguez‘s lack of options has resulted in some dubious DL-trips several times for this team, as he clearly could use some minor league time to fix his Jeckyl-and-Hyde performances. But he can’t be optioned, so in some ways the team is stuck. Honestly, I think its just a matter of time before they run out of patience and DFA him as well.