Heat Watch: Last chance at 100 degrees for awhile. We hope.

A woman crosses the street near Fannin and Dallas during a heavy downpour, Sunday, July 8, 2012, in Houston. ( Michael Paulsen / Houston Chronicle )

A woman crosses the street near Fannin and Dallas during a heavy downpour, Sunday, July 8, 2012, in Houston. ( Michael Paulsen / Houston Chronicle )

Photo: Houston Chronicle

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Liam Murphy, 18-months-old, reacts to a heavy downpour while playing at Discovery Green with his father Matthew, Sunday, July 8, 2012, in Houston. "He loves the rain," Matthew Murphy said. "We came down here to play in the fountains but they were closed; I guess fresh rain is the next best thing." ( Michael Paulsen / Houston Chronicle ) less

Liam Murphy, 18-months-old, reacts to a heavy downpour while playing at Discovery Green with his father Matthew, Sunday, July 8, 2012, in Houston. "He loves the rain," Matthew Murphy said. "We came down here ... more

Photo: Houston Chronicle

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Liam Murphy, 18-months-old, runs through puddles during a heavy downpour while playing at Discovery Green with his father Matthew, Sunday, July 8, 2012, in Houston. "He loves the rain," Matthew Murphy said. "We came down here to play in the fountains but they were closed; I guess fresh rain is the next best thing." ( Michael Paulsen / Houston Chronicle ) less

Liam Murphy, 18-months-old, runs through puddles during a heavy downpour while playing at Discovery Green with his father Matthew, Sunday, July 8, 2012, in Houston. "He loves the rain," Matthew Murphy said. ... more

Photo: Houston Chronicle

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Rain drops on the window of a sky bridge with signs announcing the NAACP National Convention at the George R. Brown Convention Center Sunday, July 8, 2012, in Houston.

Rain drops on the window of a sky bridge with signs announcing the NAACP National Convention at the George R. Brown Convention Center Sunday, July 8, 2012, in Houston.

Photo: Chronicle

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Cyclist, Mike Hallecook rides his bike along Barker Reservoir in George Bush Park where he said he rides two-to-three times a week Thursday, July 5, 2012, in Houston.
"It's beautiful today, " Hallecook said of the weather. less

Cyclist, Mike Hallecook rides his bike along Barker Reservoir in George Bush Park where he said he rides two-to-three times a week Thursday, July 5, 2012, in Houston.
"It's beautiful today, " Hallecook said ... more

Chris Mendez holds 'Cocoa' as 'Rocky' jumps for the ball into the doggie pool at Danny Jackson Family Bark Park on Friday, June 1, 2012, in Houston. Houston will have a rain free weekend with high's in the low 90's. ( Mayra Beltran / Houston Chronicle ) less

Chris Mendez holds 'Cocoa' as 'Rocky' jumps for the ball into the doggie pool at Danny Jackson Family Bark Park on Friday, June 1, 2012, in Houston. Houston will have a rain free weekend with high's in the low ... more

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The sun shines behind J.C. Wright who was working out doing "dips" in Hutcheson Park on June 26, 2012. Wright works out weekdays said the heat doesn't bother him. (Johnny Hanson / Houston Chronicle) less

The sun shines behind J.C. Wright who was working out doing "dips" in Hutcheson Park on June 26, 2012. Wright works out weekdays said the heat doesn't bother him. (Johnny Hanson / Houston ... more

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"It's still humid, but the freeze feels good on my face" says Nathalia Guidry as she runs up the hill along Allen Parkway on Thursday, May 24, 2012, in Houston. Temperatures in the 90's today, with 30 mph winds are forecasted for today. (Mayra Beltran / Houston Chronicle ) less

"It's still humid, but the freeze feels good on my face" says Nathalia Guidry as she runs up the hill along Allen Parkway on Thursday, May 24, 2012, in Houston. Temperatures in the 90's today, with 30 mph ... more

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Charles Williams, right, with the Star of Hope outreach program, hands Chris Stevenson, who is homeless, a bottle of water in James Bute Park as temperatures could reach 100 degrees.

Charles Williams, right, with the Star of Hope outreach program, hands Chris Stevenson, who is homeless, a bottle of water in James Bute Park as temperatures could reach 100 degrees.

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Florinda Rangel and her daughter Monserrat, 16, walk home in tnear the corner of Elgin and Bastrop on June 19.

Florinda Rangel and her daughter Monserrat, 16, walk home in tnear the corner of Elgin and Bastrop on June 19.

Joe Sauceda power walks along a trail before the rain at Montie Beach Park on Wednesday, June 6, 2012, in Houston.

Joe Sauceda power walks along a trail before the rain at Montie Beach Park on Wednesday, June 6, 2012, in Houston.

Photo: Mayra Beltran / Chronicle

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Bobby Ray Carter pushes Debrah Lewis through the intersection of Hutchins and Elgin on their way home.
"I love the rain," Lewis said. "We are close to home anyway."

Bobby Ray Carter pushes Debrah Lewis through the intersection of Hutchins and Elgin on their way home.
"I love the rain," Lewis said. "We are close to home anyway."

Photo: Johnny Hanson / Chronicle

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Dolores Gonzalez walks with her daughters, Isabelle, 3, and Maria, 7, around the track at Jefferson Davis High School. Dolores said she walks their almost daily and he walks with the girls about tree times around the loop or until Isabelle gets tired. (Johnny Hanson / Houston Chronicle) less

Dolores Gonzalez walks with her daughters, Isabelle, 3, and Maria, 7, around the track at Jefferson Davis High School. Dolores said she walks their almost daily and he walks with the girls about tree times ... more

William Johnson does his morning walk around Hutcheson Park on June 26, 2012. "I normally try do be out here earlier than this," he said as tempratures were already in the upper 80s at 8 a.m. (Johnny Hanson / Houston Chronicle) less

William Johnson does his morning walk around Hutcheson Park on June 26, 2012. "I normally try do be out here earlier than this," he said as tempratures were already in the upper 80s at 8 a.m. (Johnny Hanson / ... more

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Jim Paley rides the S. Picnic Lane loop on a cool morning at Memorial Park on Monday, May 21, 2012, in Houston.

Jim Paley rides the S. Picnic Lane loop on a cool morning at Memorial Park on Monday, May 21, 2012, in Houston.

Albert Villareal and wife Thelma Villarreal ride their 'Surrey Bike' to their shop in the Heights during the morning rush hour on Tuesday, May 22, 2012, in Houston. (Mayra Beltran/Chronicle)

Albert Villareal and wife Thelma Villarreal ride their 'Surrey Bike' to their shop in the Heights during the morning rush hour on Tuesday, May 22, 2012, in Houston. (Mayra Beltran/Chronicle)

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Traek Ali, 6, falls from the pull-up bars while walking around the Memorial Park Loop with his mother, Alcira Molina-Ali.
"This is our summer camp, a way to wear him out," Molina-Ali said.

Traek Ali, 6, falls from the pull-up bars while walking around the Memorial Park Loop with his mother, Alcira Molina-Ali.
"This is our summer camp, a way to wear him out," Molina-Ali said.

Photo: Johnny Hanson / Chronicle

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Gael Martinez practices playing tennis with mother Berta Martinez at Moody Park on Tuesday, June 5, 2012, in Houston.

Gael Martinez practices playing tennis with mother Berta Martinez at Moody Park on Tuesday, June 5, 2012, in Houston.

Photo: Mayra Beltran / Chronicle

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Christopher Guzman,13, plays with other children enrolled in the Summer Enrichment Program at Eastwood Park on Monday, June 4, 2012. The citywide program starts today, and they still accepting children for the summer program. The heat index is expected to hit the 100 mark, with high temperatures in the 90's today. Photo by Mayra Beltran. less

Christopher Guzman,13, plays with other children enrolled in the Summer Enrichment Program at Eastwood Park on Monday, June 4, 2012. The citywide program starts today, and they still accepting children for the ... more

"Pretty Girl", an 8 year-old yellow lab, goes for an early morning swim at Danny Jackson Family Bark Park on Friday, June 1, 2012, in Houston. Houston will have a rain free weekend with high's in the low 90's. ( Mayra Beltran / Houston Chronicle ) less

"Pretty Girl", an 8 year-old yellow lab, goes for an early morning swim at Danny Jackson Family Bark Park on Friday, June 1, 2012, in Houston. Houston will have a rain free weekend with high's in the low 90's. ... more

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"Pleasant monring" says Don Williams as he walks "Pretty Girl", an 8 year-old yellow lab, into the Danny Jackson Family Bark Park on Friday, June 1, 2012, in Houston. Houston will have a rain free weekend with high's in the low 90's. ( Mayra Beltran / Houston Chronicle ) less

"Pleasant monring" says Don Williams as he walks "Pretty Girl", an 8 year-old yellow lab, into the Danny Jackson Family Bark Park on Friday, June 1, 2012, in Houston. Houston will have a rain free weekend with ... more

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Sweat beads on the face of J.C. Wright who was doing pull-ups at Hutcheson Park on June 26, 2012. Wright who works out weekdays said the heat doesn't bother him. (Johnny Hanson / Houston Chronicle)

Sweat beads on the face of J.C. Wright who was doing pull-ups at Hutcheson Park on June 26, 2012. Wright who works out weekdays said the heat doesn't bother him. (Johnny Hanson / Houston Chronicle)

"I come ride here so I don't have to worry about traffic" says Troy McGowe as he rides during a cool morning around the S. Picnic Lane loop at Memorial Park on Monday, May 21, 2012, in Houston....... less

"I come ride here so I don't have to worry about traffic" says Troy McGowe as he rides during a cool morning around the S. Picnic Lane loop at Memorial Park on Monday, May 21, 2012, in ... more

Magdalene Boltz-Wilson takes her dog Leo on a daily
morning walk along the Heights esplanade near 11th Street.
"It's still nice out," she said about the weather. "At least for the
next hour." (Johnny Hanson/Chronicle) less

Magdalene Boltz-Wilson takes her dog Leo on a daily
morning walk along the Heights esplanade near 11th Street.
"It's still nice out," she said about the weather. "At least for the
next hour." (Johnny ... more

The high-pressure ridge that drove Tuesday’s historic temperatures remains in place for today, and the National Weather Service has issued a heat advisory. Expect temperatures to reach 100 across most of the region, but likely not quite a high as Tuesday.

Today's high temperatures. (National Weather Service)

The pattern slowly begins to change on Thursday and Friday as the high weakens slightly. It’s still going to be sunny and warm, but temperatures should only climb into the mid- to upper-90s.

By Saturday the high should break down, and in concert with rising moisture levels in the atmosphere we’re likely to see more cloudy days, a slight chance of rain and highs in the low 90s.

The end of the month, therefore, may see temperatures near normal, rather than near record highs.

THE FUTURE

For the most part this June had been pretty temperate, giving some hope that last summer was just a horrible anomaly. But this recent heat wave certainly gives on pause. So what’s ahead of July and August?

In its most recent outlook for the July-August-September, forecasters predict Texas will probably experience a warmer-than-normal summer.

Temperatures are expected to be above normal in July, August and September. (NOAA)

But how much warmer? And is this late June heat wave a precursor to another dreadful July and August? For some thoughts on this, I asked Fred Schmude ImpactWeather.

He says it won’t get that bad. Here’s his overview for the rest of the summer:

We have some major changes occurring in the worldwide weather pattern which will have a significant effect on the Houston area over the next several months through the end of the year. Even though we’ve seen a recent surge of triple digit heat across the Houston-Galveston area, I don’t think this is a sign of things to come based on some of the long range signals we’re looking at

First and foremost we’ve already seen much more rain this year compared to last with amounts averaging from 2 to 4” above normal at both Houston Bush and Hobby. Recall last year at this time we were recording rainfall deficits up to 20” or more below normal, so we’re obviously under a different weather pattern this year compared to last.

Secondly, the formative stages of what appears to be a moderate to strong El Niño are already taking shape over the eastern Tropical Pacific. Even though this weather feature will probably not directly affect the weather pattern here in the Houston area over the next few months, it will have some long term consequences especially during the fall and winter with more widespread rainfall and cooler weather.

For now, the developing El Niño will probably shake up the flow pattern at times over the southern U.S. resulting in off and on periods of more normal rainfall and powerful thunderstorms at times during the summer months. Our latest forecast for the Houston area from July through September calls for temperatures to average from 1 to 3F above normal, with the warmest temperature anomalies likely centered well north of the area from northern Arkansas through Iowa.

We’ll probably see several more 100 degree days over the Houston area at times through September, but not nearly to the intensity or extent as last year. Rainfall is forecast to average fairly close to normal here in the Houston area as periodic surges of Gulf moisture bring more enhanced sea breeze shower and thunderstorm activity to the region.

We’ll of course be monitoring the tropics very closely since the exact track of any future tropical cyclones will have a significant influence on the U.S. rainfall patterns for this summer season. Right now we think the best chance of tropical cyclone activity this season will be east of the Houston area from Louisiana through Florida.

So hopefully, then, 105 degrees on June 26 is not a precursor to an August filled with them.