A Cautionary Tale: Senate Votes In The 2013 Federal Election

Aside from the Coalition, ALP and Greens, just five parties were able to poll above 1% nationally in the last Senate election.

The Palmer United Party, Liberal Democrats, Nick Xenophon Group, Sex Party and Family First each managed to reach 1% nationally in the 2013 federal election. They polled higher numbers in particular states and managed to win seats. Only the Sex Party failed to elect a senator.

A further 46 groups polled less than 1% each. Nineteen of these failed to make it to 0.5%. Twenty-five groups failed to poll more than 0.66% and will not contest this year’s election. Only Ricky Muir from this group of 46 managed to win election to the Senate and that was due to group voting ticket preference deals which have now been abolished.

It’s a cautionary tale worth keeping in mind when numerous micro parties are named as being in the running to win seats in this year’s election.

*

The table below shows all the parties and groups that contested the 2013 federal election. It shows the actual number of votes each group received nationally, as well as the national, state and territory percentages.

The results of the 2014 Senate election in Western Australia are also shown. The 2013 result (invalidated by the High Court) appears on top, the re-run result below.

Parties are listed in order of their national vote percentage. Coalition parties have been grouped. The table indicates those parties and groups that are contesting the 2016 election.

2013 Senate Election – Votes for Parties/Groups by States/Territories

Party/Group

Total Votes

National

NSW

Vic

Qld

WA

SA

Tas

ACT

NT

Running in 2016

UNENDORSED/UNGROUPED

15,911

0.12

0.12

0.09

0.16

0.03
0.63

0.22

0.10

0.21

–

Yes

COALITION

5,057,218

37.71

– Liberal Party

1,006,710

7.51

–

–

–

39.20
34.06

27.45

37.51

33.08

–

Yes

– Liberal/National (Joint Ticket)

2,853,905

21.28

34.20

40.13

–

–

–

–

–

–

Yes

– Liberal National Party (LNP-Qld)

1,084,299

8.08

–

–

41.39

–

–

–

–

–

Yes

– Country Liberals (NT)

42,781

0.32

–

–

–

–

–

–

–

41.34

Yes

– The Nationals

69,523

0.52

–

–

–

5.07
3.04

–

–

–

–

Yes

Australian Labor Party

4,038,591

30.11

31.56

32.45

28.52

26.59
21.53

22.66

32.83

34.44

32.75

Yes

Australian Greens

1,159,588

8.65

7.79

10.84

6.04

9.49
15.60

7.09

11.66

19.27

8.67

Yes

Palmer United Party

658,976

4.91

3.39

3.66

9.89

5.01
12.34

2.65

6.58

2.11

7.14

Yes

Liberal Democrats

523,831

3.91

9.50

0.01

0.69

3.43
1.82

3.53

2.32

–

–

Yes

Nick Xenophon Group

258,376

1.93

–

–

–

–

24.88

–

–

–

Yes

Australian Sex Party

188,731

1.37

1.02

1.89

1.12

1.49
0.95

1.00

1.45

3.49

2.13

Yes

Family First

149,306

1.11

0.38

1.53

1.09

0.67
0.74

3.76

1.31

–

–

Yes

Shooters and Fishers (now Shooters, Fishers and Farmers)

127,397

0.95

1.25

0.83

0.70

1.04
1.03

0.59

1.10

–

2.72

Yes

Katter’s Australian Party

119,920

0.89

0.44

0.46

2.94

0.30
0.09

0.16

0.41

0.57

–

Yes

Democratic Labour Party (DLP)

112,549

0.84

1.54

0.71

0.32

–
0.21

0.98

0.77

–

–

Yes

Help End Marijuana Prohibition (HEMP)

95.430

0.71

0.69

0.59

0.90

1.07
1.06

0.58

0.51

–

–

Yes

Animal Justice Party

93,280

0.70

0.48

0.75

1.07

0.74
0.65

0.62

–

1.21

–

Yes

The Wikileaks Party

88,092

0.66

0.83

1.24

–

0.75
0.63

–

–

–

–

No

Christian Democratic Party (Fred Nile Group

72,544

0.54

1.66

–

–

–

–

–

–

–

Yes

One Nation

70,851

0.53

1.22

0.01

0.55

–

0.29

–

–

–

Yes

Australian Motoring Enthusiast Party

67,560

0.50

0.39

0.51

0.72

0.59
0.55

0.66

–

–

–

Yes

Australian Fishing and Lifestyle Party

59,907

0.45

0.47

0.48

0.51

0.44
0.36

0.32

0.22

–

–

No

Australian Christians

54,154

0.40

–

0.49

0.42

1.64
1.54

0.34

0.48

–

–

Yes

Rise Up Australia Party

49,341

0.37

0.10

0.92

0.21

0.29
0.17

0.12

0.30

0.56

0.94

Yes

Australian Independents

45,441

0.34

0.22

0.34

0.48

0.31

0.20

0.74

0.65

1.49

No

Pirate Party

42,102

0.31

0.33

0.37

0.50

–
0.49

–

0.58

–

–

Yes

Australian Democrats

33,907

0.25

0.22

0.32

0.25

0.29
0.27

0.30

–

–

–

No

Smokers Rights

25,123

0.19

0.19

0.00

0.20

0.67
0.28

0.18

0.24

–

–

No

Voluntary Euthanasia Party

21,854

0.16

0.34

–

–

–
0.67

0.31

–

1.61

–

Yes

Bullet Train For Australia

19,377

0.14

0.21

0.15

–

–

–

–

2.05

–

No

Stop The Greens

19,013

0.14

0.18

0.01

0.27

0.17

0.01

0.42

–

–

No

No Carbon Tax Climate Sceptics

17,959

0.13

0.18

0.15

0.08

0.11

0.11

0.06

–

–

No

Secular Party of Australia

12,704

0.09

0.07

0.13

0.10

0.11
0.07

0.12

–

–

–

Yes

Stable Population Party (now #Sustainable Australia)

12,671

0.09

0.07

0.12

0.06

0.10
0.24

0.07

0.11

0.38

0.44

Yes

Drug Law Reform

10,189

0.08

0.09

0.12

–

–

0.11

–

0.37

–

Yes

Australia First Party (NSW) Incorporated

10,157

0.08

0.08

–

0.25

–

–

–

–

–

Yes

Australian Voice Party

10,057

0.07

0.06

0.07

0.15

0.09
0.08

–

–

–

–

No

Socialist Equality Party

9,774

0.07

0.04

0.07

0.06

0.09

0.28

–

–

–

Yes

Senator Online (Internet Voting Bills/Issues)

9,625

0.07

0.06

0.18

0.04

–

–

0.03

–

–

No

Stop CSG

7,990

0.06

0.10

0.04

0.09

–

–

–

–

–

No

Building Australia Party

7,890

0.06

0.05

0.09

0.07

–
0.08

0.08

–

–

–

No

Country Alliance (now Australian Country Party

6,440

0.05

–

0.15

–

–

0.03

0.28

–

–

Yes

Carers Alliance

5,498

0.04

0.13

–

–

–

–

–

–

–

No

Uniting Australia Party

5,423

0.04

0.05

–

0.10

–

–

–

–

0.63

No

Future Party (now Science Party)

4,243

0.03

0.10

–

–

–

–

–

–

–

No

Australian Protectionist Party

3,379

0.03

0.06

–

0.04

–

–

–

–

–

No

National Party

3,102

–

–

–

–

–

0.30

–

–

–

No

Australian Sports Party

2,997

0.02

–

–

–

0.23
0.33

–

–

–

–

No

The Australian Republicans

2,997

0.02

0.04

0.00

0.04

–

–

0.01

–

–

No

Outdoor Recreation Party (Stop The Greens)

2,753

–

–

–

–

–
0.22

–

–

–

–

No

Socialist Alliance

2,728

0.02

0.06

–

–

–
0.06

–

–

–

–

Yes

Bank Reform Party

1,828

0.01

–

0.05

–

–

–

–

–

–

No

Citizens Electoral Council

1,708

0.01

–

0.04

–

–

–

–

–

0.30

Yes

A.F.N.P.P.

1,495

0.01

–

–

–

–

–

–

–

1.44

No

Non-Custodial Parents Party (Equal Parenting)

1,357

0.01

0.03

–

–

–

–

–

–

–

Yes

Mutual Party

842

–

–

–

–

–
0.07

–

–

–

–

No

Freedom and Prosperity Party

837

–

–

–

–

–
0.07

–

TA

–

–

No

Republican Party of Australia

743

–

–

–

–

–
0.06

–

–

–

–

No

What happened in 2013?

The Coalition polled 37.71%, the ALP 30.11% and The Greens 8.65%. These parties won 33 of the 40 available Senate positions.

Only 4 other parties polled above 1% nationally:

Palmer United Party won 3 seats with 4.91% nationally – 9.89% in Queensland, 6.58% in Tasmania and 12.34% in WA secured three senators

Liberal Democrats won 3.91% nationally – won a seat with 9.50% in NSW

Nick Xenophon Group secured 1.93% nationally, but this was actually 24.88% in South Australia and resulted in the election of one senator

Sex Party polled 1.37% nationally but did not win a seat

Family First secured 1.11% nationally – won a South Australian seat with 3.76%

A further 46 groups polled less than 1% each. 19 of those failed to make it to 0.5%. 25 groups failed to poll more than 0.66% and will not contest this year’s election.

Ricky Muir of the Motoring Enthusiast Party was elected to the Senate with 0.51% of the primary vote in Victoria. His election was entirely due to preference deals via group voting tickets. Unless he can dramatically increase his primary vote, he has no hope of being re-elected.

What is likely to happen on July 2, 2016?

In the 2016 double dissolution election, the quota for election to the Senate is 7.7%. In the absence of group voting tickets that previously enabled micro parties to elect senators via preference deals, it is estimated that a party will have to get at least 3% of the primary vote to have a chance of winning a seat.

Any group that can make it to 3% will also require a strong flow of preferences to make it to a quota. The abolition of group voting tickets and the introduction of optional preferential voting above and below the line makes it near impossible to predict the preference flow or the number of exhausted votes. The inability of micro parties to staff polling booths and hand out how-to-vote cards also inhibits their ability to reach a quota.

Jacqui Lambie, Derryn Hinch, Glenn Lazarus, Pauline Hanson and others have been mentioned as possibilities for election to the Senate on July 2. Nick Xenophon is expected to bring two other members of his party with him into the Senate.

Most predictions assume a much higher vote than past experience suggests is likely. As Antony Green said in this very useful piece: “The new electoral system is likely to give the final seats to the parties with the highest partial quotas at the start of the count.”