Summary ------- ¶1. (C) Summary: Minister of State for Okinawa Seiji Maehara told EAP Assistant Secretary Kurt Campbell and Assistant Secretary of Defense Gregson on February 2 that the wide range of views within Japan,s ruling coalition had influenced the GOJ,s handling of the Futenma Replacement Facility (FRF) issue. Stressing Prime Minister Hatoyama,s commitment to reach an FRF decision by May, Maehara said that no coalition partner had a veto. He noted that Defense Minister Toshimi Kitazawa will play a key role as only the Ministry of Defense (MOD) has the expertise to evaluate the operational elements of various FRF options. Maehara was unable to say when the GOJ might be able to engage with the United States on the details of the FRF proposals. A/S Campbell urged that Japan to consult with the United States before publicly unveiling any options. Previewing a later meeting with Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) Secretary General Ichiro Ozawa, Maehara cautioned that Ozawa often tailors his statements depending on his audience, saying that he would likely voice strong support for the U.S.-Japan alliance. A/S Campbell asked for more frequent public statements of support for the alliance. Maehara was not optimistic that the FRF issue would fade soon, saying that expectations in Okinawa were very high. The November Okinawa Governor race could be another flashpoint should the anti-base Ginowan Mayor decide to run. End Summary.

Coalition Dynamics on FRF ------------------------- ¶2. (C) In a February 2 meeting with Ambassador Roos, A/S Campbell and ASD Gregson, Minister of State for Okinawa (concurrently Minister of Transportation) Maehara said that the disparate views on FRF plans among the three parties in Japan,s ruling coalition has shaped the Hatoyama government,s management of the issue. Although both the Social Democratic Party (SDP) and the People,s New Party (PNP) maintain the need for an alternative to the current FRF plan, the SDP has not suggested a specific alternative site, while PNP Coalition working group representative Mikio Shimoji has voiced his personal preference for integrating Futenma,s operations into Kadena Air Base. DPJ Secretary General Ozawa has suggested Shimoji-jima and Ie-jima as possible sites. In addition, the Hatoyama government itself is engaged in an internal debate over FRF alternatives, he said.

¶3. (C) Noting that the GOJ has committed to a decision on FRF by May, Maehara said he told SDP President Mizuho Fukushima not to assume that the SPD had a veto on alternatives and that the SDP is obligated as a coalition member to propose viable options. Cabinet members involved in the FRF issue, including the Prime Minister, have publicly declared that the current FRF plan remains an option, he said. Whether another workable option exists remains to be seen, Maehara said.

¶4. (C) Defense Minister Kitazawa and MOD will play a central role in internal GOJ evaluation of FRF alternatives as only MOD can engage in detailed operational analysis of Marine Corps Operations, Maehara said. MOD is currently studying possible sites, with operational needs in mind, he said. At the same time, Maehara said he had asked trusted Self Defense Forces (SDF) colleagues to consider carefully various options.

Engaging with the U.S. on Options --------------------------------- ¶5. (C) Responding to Maehara,s admonition that time was short, A/S Campbell sought more clarity on when the GOJ might be ready to engage with the United States on the potential FRF alternatives, particularly on operational issues. Maehara said it was not clear to him at what stage the GOJ would engage on the details of possible alternatives. Reiterating the U.S. view that the current FRF plan is the best option, A/S Campbell stressed that U.S.-Japan management of the next phase of this process was critically important to a successful resolution. He urged that the GOJ consult with the U.S. privately before publicly unveiling any proposal.

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Assessment of Ozawa ------------------- ¶6. (C) Noting that A/S Campbell and ASD Gregson would meet later in the day with DPJ Secretary General Ozawa, Maehara cautioned that Ozawa can tailor his comments to suit those with whom he meets. For example, he said that in meeting with ruling coalition party leaders, Ozawa has stressed maintaining the coalition; while in Okinawa, he has emphasized reducing the burden on Okinawa. In this light, Maehara suggested that Ozawa likely would stress to A/S Campbell and ASD Gregson the importance of the U.S.-Japan alliance and the need to reach an FRF resolution by May.

Voice Support for Alliance -------------------------- ¶7. (C) A/S Campbell said the United States would appreciate more public GOJ statements of support for the alliance, particularly the role U.S. plays in regional security. He noted that more key government players speaking out would create a strong foundation for the next steps in managing the FRF process. Maehara replied that he voiced his support for the alliance at every opportunity, adding that the notion of a U.S.-Japan-China "equilateral triangle," a concept suggested by DPJ Diet Affair Chief Kenji Yamaoka, was "ridiculous."

Expectations High in Okinawa ---------------------------- ¶8. (C) In response to a query from the Ambassador on how long the current political uncertainty in Okinawa might last, Maehara was not optimistic that the situation would improve soon, noting that suggestions that FRF could be relocated out of Okinawa entirely has raised high expectations. The results of the January Nago mayoral election, won by an anti-base candidate, reflected this sentiment, he said. In addition, Maehara suggested the situation could be further complicated, depending on whether anti-base Ginowan Mayor Yoichi Iha runs for Governor, such a development could further complicate a resolution.

¶9. (C) The Ambassador also raised possible economic incentives that the U.S. might pursue to assist Okinawa. Maehara suggested that the United States might consider how it could support the soon-to-open Okinawa Institute of Science and Technology. He suggested that U.S. scientific expertise and attracting top U.S. scientific talent to the University could help attract talented students.