The trend estimate of turnover for the Australian Retail and Hospitality/Services series increased by 1.0% in November 2003 compared with October 2003. This follows increases of 1.0% in the previous three months.

The trend estimate increased in all states and territories except the Australian Capital Territory. The largest increases were in Queensland, New South Wales, Victoria and Tasmania.

Over the three months to November 2003 the trend estimate rose by $460m. Hospitality and services (+$137m), Food retailing (+$94m) and Other retailing (+$88m) showed the largest increases.

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED

The seasonally adjusted estimate of turnover for the Australian Retail and Hospitality/Services series increased by 1.4% in November 2003 compared with October 2003. This follows a revised increase of 1.3% in October 2003 and an increase of 0.8% in September 2003.

The estimate of total turnover for November 2003 was 8.6% higher than November 2002.

ORIGINAL ESTIMATES

In original terms, Australian turnover increased by 1.5% in November 2003 compared with October 2003. Chains and other large retailers (which are completely enumerated) increased by 2.9%, while 'smaller' retailers (the sampled units) decreased by 0.2%.

Australian turnover increased by 7.0% in November 2003 compared with November 2002. Chains and other large retailers increased by 5.7%, while 'smaller' retailers increased by 8.8%.

Notes

CHANGES IN THIS ISSUE

There are no changes in this issue.

SAMPLING ERRORS

Standard errors for the Australian estimates (original data) for November 2003 contained in this publication are:

Data Series

Estimate

Standard error

Level of retail turnover ($m)

16,258.6

155.6

Change from preceding month ($m)

245.6

47.8

% change from preceding month (%)

1.5

0.3

Estimates for sampled businesses in the first month of each quarter can be influenced by the quarterly rotation of sampled businesses. This rotation is done to spread the reporting load across retailers and to ensure the sample remains representative of the population. At times, the businesses rotated into the sample can perform differently from the businesses they replace or those already in the sample. The potential impact of the quarterly rotation is reflected in the sampling errors for the relevant months.

For more information see the Explanatory Notes, paragraphs 30-34, or contact Graham Phillips on 02 6252 5625.

Inquiries

For further information about these and related statistics, contact the National Information and Referral Service on 1300 135 070 or Jeremy Walker on Canberra (02) 6252 5451.

Summary Commentary

INDUSTRY TRENDS

MONTHLY SEASONALLY ADJUSTED AND TREND ESTIMATES

TOTAL RETAIL

Trend growth has been strong over the last six months. Over this period all industries have experienced growth. Recreational good retailing, Other retailing and Hospitality and services have had strong trend growth for six or more months. The trend growth in Household good retailing is moderating after six months of strong trend growth.

FOOD RETAILING

There has been moderate trend growth for the last 10 months. Queensland and Tasmania have had strong growth in each of the last six months while New South Wales and the Northern Territory have had moderate growth. Victoria, South Australia and the Australian Capital Territory had weak trend growth in the last three months and Western Australia was in decline.

DEPARTMENT STORES

Trend growth has been moderate since December 2002. Queensland has had strong growth over the last three months, while New South Wales and Victoria have had moderate growth. The Australian Capital Territory was flat for the last two months.

CLOTHING AND SOFT GOOD RETAILING

There has been strong trend growth in each of the last three months after ten months of mostly weak growth. New South Wales and South Australia have had strong growth in the last three months while Victoria and Queensland have had moderate growth. Tasmania and the Northern Territory were flat or in decline in the last six months.

HOUSEHOLD GOOD RETAILING

After six months of strong trend growth, October and November 2003 had moderate trend growth. New South Wales, Queensland, Western Australia and the Northern Territory have all had strong growth in each of the last six months, while Tasmania had moderate growth in November 2003 after nine months of strong growth. Victoria has been in decline for the last four months.

RECREATIONAL GOOD RETAILING

There has been strong trend growth over the last seven months. New South Wales, Queensland and Tasmania have had strong trend growth over this period, while Western Australia has had strong growth for most of this period. Victoria had strong growth in the last two months after having been in decline for 12 months. The Northern Territory and the Australian Capital Territory were flat or in decline over the last three months.

OTHER RETAILING

Trend growth has been strong over the last ten months. Queensland has had strong trend growth since August 2002, but had moderate growth in November 2003. Victoria has had strong trend growth over the last seven months and New South Wales over the last nine months. Western Australia has been in decline since July 2003.

TOTAL RETAIL (excluding Hospitality and Services)

The rate of trend growth for Total retail (excluding Hospitality and services) has been slightly below that of Total industries (including Hospitality and services) for the last five months.

HOSPITALITY AND SERVICES

There has been strong trend growth over the last six months. Queensland has had strong trend growth in each of the last ten months, Victoria has had strong growth over the last six months, and New South Wales over the last four months. Tasmania had weak growth in November 2003 after months of strong growth. The Northern Territory and the Australian Capital Territory were in decline in November 2003.

STATE TRENDS

MONTHLY SEASONALLY ADJUSTED AND TREND ESTIMATES

NEW SOUTH WALES

Trend growth has been strong for the last five months. Household good retailing, Recreational good retailing, Other retailing and Hospitality and services have shown strong trend growth over this period. Clothing retailing has shown strong growth in the last three months and Department stores showed strong growth in November after four months of weak growth.

VICTORIA

Trend growth has been strong in each of the last five months. Other retailing and Hospitality and services have shown strong trend growth over this period. Recreational good retailing had been in decline since September 2002, but has had strong trend growth in the last two months. Household good retailing has been in decline for the last four months.

QUEENSLAND

Trend growth has been strong for eight months. Food retailing, Household good retailing, Recreational good retailing and Hospitality and services have all shown strong trend growth in each of these months. Department stores and Other retailing had strong growth for most of this period.

SOUTH AUSTRALIA

The trend has shown moderate growth in the last two months after having been in decline or having weak growth for the previous five months. Clothing retailing has shown strong growth over the last three months. Food retailing had weak growth over the last three months after having been in decline.

WESTERN AUSTRALIA

Trend growth has been slowing from strong growth in June 2003 to weak growth in November 2003. The trend growth for Household good retailing has been strong since October 2002, and for Recreational good retailing, strong for the last six months. Hospitality and services was moderate in November 2003 after five months of strong growth. Food retailing has been flat or in decline in the last four months.

TASMANIA

Trend growth has been strong over the last eight months. Recreational good retailing and Food retailing have had strong growth over the last seven months. Household good retailing has had strong growth since February 2003, but in November had moderate trend growth. The trend growth rate for Hospitality and services has been decreasing from strong in May 2003 to weak in November 2003.