Composite resolution

Yesterday's decision by the leaders of India and Pakistan to launch a formal dialogue on all the issues that divide their two countries is a significant and welcome step. There has rarely been such solid ground for optimism that a long and sorry saga of mutually destructive, nuclear-armed enmity can at last be brought to a close. Whether the Islamabad declaration is truly the historic moment that Pakistan's General Pervez Musharraf claims is a question that only history will decide. But for now, at least, and with all the inevitable caveats and qualifications, this agreement represents a tremendous opportunity that must be energetically and steadfastly pursued.

Determination will indeed be essential for there will undoubtedly be setbacks, most predictably in the form of renewed extremist violence linked to the Kashmir dispute. Having finally got the show on the road, after nearly a year of patient fence-mending, the two governments must not let any such difficulties drive them back down the old, familiar paths of recrimination and confrontation. Gen Musharraf has a particular responsibility to maintain recent pressure on the Islamist zealots who pose the biggest, single threat to the future stability of Kashmir (and Afghanistan) and to that of Pakistan itself. He will have to watch his back with ever greater care; the last two attempts on his life were chillingly well-organised. India's unflagging commitment to this dialogue, once the excitement wears off, will be crucial. The country is moving towards an anticipated general election this spring. There will be those to the chauvinist right of the prime minister, Atal Bihari Vajpayee, who may seek to exploit the process for political advantage. Mr Vajpayee will need to watch his back, too.

The chances of a lasting success are uncertain, to say the least. Both sides will have to be patient. Each will have to find a trust in the other that has usually been lacking in the past. In purely practical terms, the mutual sensitivity that characterised the slow build-up to yesterday's declaration must be maintained. This means ministerial-level involvement in the composite dialogue leading, perhaps, to a heads-of-government summit within an agreed time-frame. These are no mere technicalities. Momentum must be sustained. But so must prestige, succouring belief that the will exists to make it work.

The reasons that led to this agreement provide clues to its future success or failure. The Indian leader is strongly placed; his coalition looks set to win another term. The economy is doing well. India's prestige abroad is high. Mr Vajpayee has long understood that a stable, friendly Pakistan is a key Indian security interest. Now, at the age of 79, he has the power as well as the motivation to make the difference. For his part, Gen Musharraf has recently strengthened his political position at home. But the taint of illegitimacy arising from his 1999 coup has not totally evaporated and the pressures on him are greater. Pakistan's weak economy, its high poverty levels, its relative military weakness, its dependence on US aid, and the unavoidable strategic choices that followed on from September 11 have all pushed him in one direction.

Washington has been pushing, too, and is unlikely to stop. Like Britain, US concerns focus on WMD and terrorism. The timing of weekend US media revelations about Pakistan's role in nuclear arms proliferation was hardly coincidental. That followed earlier US leaks about secret Pakistani links to al-Qaida. Even China has been nagging Pakistan about terrorism. This kind of external lobbying is likely to continue. But to give him credit, Gen Musharraf has come a long way since Kargil in 1999. Kashmir doubtless remains close to his heart. But the need for peace grows more pressing. Mr Vajpayee agrees. All in south Asia, and beyond, will hope they can deliver.