Orange juice rises on speculative buying as storm threat passes

General Comments: Futures closed higher on speculative buying. The historical peak of the hurricane season has passed and so far no storms have come close to the state. There are still no real threats showing in the tropical Atlantic for Florida, and none in the forecast through at least the end of the week. Growing conditions in the state of Florida remain mostly good. Showers are reported and conditions are said to be very good in almost the entire state. Temperatures are warm. Brazil is seeing near to above normal temperatures and showers.

Overnight News: Florida weather forecasts call for some showers. Temperatures will average near normal.

Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are down with objectives of 121.00 November. Support is at 125.00, 124.00, and 122.50 November, with resistance at 129.00, 131.00, and 132.00 November.

General Comments: Futures closed mixed after big rains were reported in southeastern production areas over the weekend. The crop is late this year, but USDA showed that 47% of the bolls were open, and the Cotton in these open bolls could be subject to quality losses and perhaps yield losses as well. USDA showed a slight improvement in crop conditions in its reports last night, but might not have been able to factor in any damage that might have occurred. US crop conditions right now are generally good with moderate to warm temperatures and dry conditions in the forecast for Texas this week and dry weather in the forecast for the Delta and Southeast. The weather forecasts and the crop progress and condition reports offer no concerns for production at this time. Weather for Cotton still appears good in India and Pakistan, and harvest should be starting there. Cotton in China is seeing rain that could hurt quality.

Overnight News: The Delta and Southeast will see showers tomorrow, otherwise dry weather. Temperatures will average above normal. Texas will see dry weather. Temperatures will average above normal. The USDA spot price is now 80.94 ct/lb. ICE said that certified Cotton stocks are now 0.014 million bales, from 0.015 million yesterday.

Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 84.10, 83.70, and 83.55 December, with resistance of 85.10, 85.50, and 85.80 December.

About the Author

Jack Scovilleis a veteran futures market analyst specializing in grains, softs, rice, oilseeds, and tropical products such as coffee and sugar. His industry contacts in South America, Europe, Asia, and North America provide him with a unique and comprehensive view of these markets. Jack began working in the futures industry over 30 years ago and spent 10 years working on the floor of the Chicago Board of Trade in various roles, starting with The PRICE Futures Group since it was established in 1988. Jack writes daily commentaries - Morning Grains and Softs, in both English and Spanish and is regularly quoted around the world by news & wire services including Dow Jones, AP, Bloomberg, and Reuters. You can contact Jack by phone at (312) 264-4322 or by email at jscoville@pricegroup.com. Learn even more on our website at www.pricegroup.com.

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