October 2010

October 25, 2010

Last year one of the most interesting ideas that came out of the Future of Work Consortium was that by 2020, five billion people will be connected with each other through their hand held devices. Linked to the Crowd, individuals will have access to most of the digitised knowledge of the world; and using low-energy batteries, even those in the poorest places will be able to join the crowd.

What will these Five Billion Connections actually do? That’s the question I have been asking everyone whom I have come across over the last couple of months. The truth is this is an ‘emergent phenomena’, so frankly no-one really knows. But here are my top five guesses about the content of these connections.

1. They use their Cognitive Surplus

This is the argument of New York academic Clay Shirky – you can catch his argument on his recent TED talk. Right now the average person watches 28 hours of TV a week – that’s time taken in passive viewing with no connectivity to other. Imagine if instead each person devoted, lets say 5 hours to interacting with others in a more creative way. That’s 5 hours per person per week X 52 weeks in a year X a community of 5 Billion people…now and that’s a lot of cognitive surplus to be potentially focused on big issues.

2. They become more Empathic towards each other

So believes US policy maker Jeremy Rifkin – you can catch his ideas on his recent talk at the Royal Society of Arts. His argument is that when people connect they learn more about each other – and in doing so they become more understanding and empathic of each other. The impact is that a more empathic global community becomes more tolerant of each other, more able to communicate with ease, and ultimately more likely to cooperate on important issues.

3. They engage in Crowd-Innovation

Already sites like InnoCentive are enabling hundreds of thousands of people around the world to connect to each other to solve the problems they really care about. Imagine if these connected millions of people together to create ‘swarms’ of people with passion and commitment?

4. They make change happen – one person at a time

One of the interesting aspects of the Shell 2050 Scenario’s – called ‘Blueprint’ and ‘Scramble’ is the idea that in the end it will not be governments or multi-nationals that will take the lead on climate change and low carbon living – in part because these are tough decisions that institutions find hard to sell. Instead, they believe that it will be individuals that make decisions about how they are going to live on a day-by-day basis. Five billion connections enable communities of people to emerge from any location in the world to share their ideas, tips, insights, and commitments. It could be that these global communities emerge as forces that are as strong as any individual region.

5. They bring misery to the world

When I asked people about the five billion connections – there is also an alternative view. It’s the view that within these connections will be people who use this hyper-connectivity to build terrorist cells, or to organise crime in a more global and efficient manner – and by doing so bring ever more misery to the world. Its also possible that these security fears will encourage governments to control the extent to which the Cloud covers their territory, or indeed the access their citizens have to digital information. As much of the world moves into recession, this closing down and erecting of walls becomes an ever-greater threat.

It seems to me that the rapid emergence of this hyper-connectivity will be one of the most interesting phenomena to watch over the coming years. What impact do you think this will have on the way people live and work?

October 16, 2010

As I move back and forth from Europe and the USA, to Singapore and India – one of the questions I encounter is ‘what are the differences between Asia and the West?’ The subset of this broad question is– are employees different (more cooperative, more skillful, more educated, more determined?) – are leaders different (more authoritarian, more inward looking, more specialized?) – are companies different (more hierarchical, more global, more innovative?) This question becomes ever more crucial as we look forward to the next couple of decades.

This question of Asia and the West arose again as we launched the Pan-Asian Hub of the Future of Work Consortium in Singapore this week. With over 50 people at the launch and another 60 expected at the London launch in November, this is a great crowd to play this question through.

But the more I get to think about the future of work – the less I can really answer this question of Asia and the West without falling into old stereotypical responses. It’s becoming increasingly clear to me that one of the profound impacts of the Five Forces we are exploring in our research, is that trends such as ever increasing technology and globalization are making it almost impossible to make any broad statements about the difference. Here are four reasons why:

Multinational Champions. Across Asia we are seeing the emergence onto the world stage of the multinational champion able to fend for itself in this world stage. Whether it’s Wipro, TCS or Infosys in India; Singapore Airways and Olam in Singapore; or Lee & Fung and Nanjing Automobile Group Corporation in China, these companies have world-class leaders, world-class systems and world-class processes. They are barely indistinguishable from their Western competitors and each have their own unique ‘signature’ that goes way beyond any Asian stereotype.

Global Talent Pools. It’s clear to me that the most talented Gen Ys in India, China or Malaysia are nearer in ideals, values and mindset to their peers in California, Moscow or Munich … than to their own parents. This is the world’s first truly ‘joined up’ global generation with skills and values that span the world. So you thought that ‘work-life balance’ was a western phenomenon of Gen Y? Then talk with the youngsters in Mumbai and you will hear many of the same issues. Technology and globalization has connected this generation to such an extent that to talk of differences is to miss the enormous similarities.

Regional Differences. Demography plays a key role in our research on the Future of Work – both in terms of the creation of talent pools and consumers, and indeed with regard to aging and pensions. With regard to demography, one of the Asian stereotypes I hear is that ‘ Asian families are bigger’. Well yes, they are in rural India (though rapidly declining) – but they are not in Japan, and certainly not in China. Or a western stereotype such, as ‘western managers are less hierarchical than their Asian peers’. Well perhaps in Finland and some UK companies, but not in many German or French companies that stick resolutely to their hierarchies. Broad sweeps – such as ‘Asia’ or ‘The West’ are just too general to pick up the huge variation between countries, and even within regions.

Families, Governments and Local Companies. Finally, it’s really hard, even within a single region, to make any broad sweeping generalization about ‘ leadership capabilities’ or ‘management practices’. The reason is simply that companies in the same location come in so many different types and varieties. Take family firms for example. Japan and Europe have some of the oldest family firms in the world, where resources have been carefully handed down for centuries. These family firms, which are prevalent across Asia – just as they are in the USA (Mars or Cargill for example), and Europe (Fiat or Banco de Santander) have typically their unique governance structures, managerial practices and resource allocation measures. They are different from the ways that state owned companies are lead and governed. The implication is that even for firms within a single location, the history of the firm is likely to play an even greater part than where it is located.

It is of course attractive to fall back on broad generalizations, particularly those associated with ‘Asia’ and ‘The West’. But as we learn more about the variety within regions and countries, these broad generalizations really have very little foundation. So much so, that when people ask me ‘what are the differences between Asia and the West’ I end up looking rather blank and saying ‘well it depends’

Am I being particularly blind about this? Are there differences between these parts of the world that you think hold up to scrutiny – I’d love to hear your views.

October 10, 2010

After a summer of thinking and writing (the fruits of which is a book on the future of work – to be in the bookstalls in April 2011), it’s time to start blogging again and to reflect on what’s top of the agenda.

In the last couple of weeks I have talked to a senior team at the World Economic Forum in Geneva, spoken at the Human Capital Conference in Singapore and addressed over 200 CIO and CTOs for Tata Consultancy Services’ conference in Paris. So – lots of networks, ideas and emerging themes. Here are the five that are on my mind right now:

The Future becomes ever more enticingWhen Julia, Max, Marzia and I asked companies to join us on our second round of the Future of Work Consortium (now affectionately known as FoW2), I don’t think any of us imagined that executives from almost 40 companies around the world would join up for the journey. But they did –and the reason was partly because they liked what we had done in FoW1 – but also because the ideas about the future are really moving centre stage. The recession may not yet be over – but you can bet that people now want to look forward, not back.

Fowville.

And yet no more predictable…A member of my research team, Max Mockett, is trained as a political historian. One of the themes he and I have been discussing is the extent to which people are aware of major societal and work transformations when they are actually living in it. The point is simply this. There is no doubt that the transition we are in at the moment – fuelled in part by the five forces I have discussed on a number of occasions (globalization, technology, society, low carbon and demography) will be as momentous as the changes that followed the Industrial Revolution. However, just as commentators at that time could not comprehend the scale of the change – so too, we find it hard to comprehend this revolution. It will only be in hindsight that it becomes clear.

Technology alone cannot be the fuel of productivityEconomic researchers have shown that the massive productivity gains in developed economies during the 80’s and 90’s where driven in large part by advances in technology – computerization, robotics, the joining up of value chains etc. However, the next peak of productivity gain will come from the combination of technology and ‘softer’ aspects such as culture, structure, practices and leadership. This was the theme that many of the CTOs at the Tata Consultancy Services conference talked about.

Which brings collaboration centre stage…So, at the heart of the next wave of productivity gains will be the subtle configuration of technology and behavior. And at the centre of this will be the willingness and competence of people to collaborate with others who are very different from them, and probably work in different locations. Our research in the Hot Spots Movement (www.hotspotsmovement.com) showed that as the environment becomes more complex (bigger strategic challenges, more rapid pace, larger teams and more diverse and virtual groups), so too diminishes the likelihood of really performing well. What has become ever more evident, is that whilst in the past leading and constructing teams and communities could be done with a modicum of initiative and intelligence – this is no longer the case. What it will take to manage and lead in the next two decades will be an order of difficulty beyond what it took in the past.

And makes leading in complex times ever more crucialThat’s one of the reasons why we have selected the development of leaders and managers as one of the core themes in FoW2. These jobs are a great deal more sophisticated than they have been, and will need a much broader set of competencies and experiences. However, just what these are and how they will be developed is still not clear. So, do keep posted – I’m back to weekly blogging again with the launch of FoW2 in Singapore next week, and London in November – and all will be revealed!