USD/CAD Weekly Outlook

By IBT Staff Reporter On 01/04/10 AT 6:09 AM

USD/CAD's rebound from 1.0364 lost moment after hitting 1.0576 and weakens again. Intraday bias remains neutral for the moment. As noted before, with 1.0744 resistance intact, there is no confirmation there recent choppy consolidation from 1.0851 has completed yet. Another fall could still be seen and a break below 1.0364 will target 1.0205 support. Nevertheless, we'd still expect downside to be contained above 1.0205 to conclude the consolidations and bring rise resumption. On the upside, above 1.0576 will suggest that rise from 1.0364 is resuming and flip intraday bias back to the upside for 1.0744 resistance. Break there will suggest that whole rise from 1.0205 has resumed for another high above 1.0851.

In the bigger picture, a medium term bottom might be in place at 1.0205 with bullish convergence conditions in daily MACD. As noted before, fall from 1.3063 is viewed as a correction to long term rise from 0.9056. Such correction might have already completed with three waves down to 1.0205 already (1.0784, 1.1732, 1.0205). Break of 1.1123 resistance will confirm this case and target 61.8% retracement of 1.3063 to 1.0205 at 1.1971 at least. On the downside, break of 1.0205 will invalidate this view and bring down trend resumption to parity instead.

In the longer term picture, the three wave structure of the fall from 1.3063 to 1.0205 revived the case that it's a correction to rise from 0.9056. Sustained trading above 61.8% retracement of 1.3063 to 1.0205 at 1.1971 will indicate that whole rise from 0.9056 might be resuming for another high above 1.3063.