A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey shows Perry picking up 44% of the vote while the president earns support from 41%. Given the margin of sampling error (+/- 3 percentage points) and the fact that the election is more than a year away, the race between the two men is effectively a toss-up. Just over a week ago, the president held a three-point advantage over Perry. (To see question wording, click here.)

Perry leads by nine among men but trails by five among women. Among voters under 30, the president leads while Perry has the edge among those over 30. The president leads Perry by 16 percentage points among union members while Perry leads among those who do not belong to a union.

Former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney currently trails the president by four percentage points, 43% to 39%.

(He only trails by 5 among women?! Quick, says the White House: can we provide free birth control on the streets?)

I can’t wait to see crosstabs to counter the notion that Perry attracts only the gun-totin’ Bible-thumpers.

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Obama is close to being toast. His last chance is this new jobs stuff he’s going to put forth next week. Unless this is something spectacular, and i can’t imagine what that could be, you can stick a fork in Obama, he will be done by Christmas.

I am betting the economy will improve just because people are so encouraged and heartened by Perry entering the race and talking up all the positive ways the country will prosper and “get working again”.

If people believe Perry is going to win, they won’t wait until then to start moving their plans forward. Let’s just hope they hold back enough to keep the heat on so he WILL 🙂

Perry and Palin are both examples of true leaders: their authority and ability to impact their world comes from within. So while elected office provides them with extra tools they can employ toward accomplishing their goals, the trappings of power are not necessary for them to be able to inspire and encourage. And when Americans are inspired and encouraged….nothing can stop us.

So, listening to Perry’s entry speech adrenalized business owners everywhere: “We are Americans!” “We do not have to accept our current circumstances. We will change them. We are Americans. That’s what we do. We roll up our sleeves. We go to work. We fix things.”

Then not only do we notice the pollsters, but the more Perry talks, we notice the people around us. There’s a tiny bit less worry. A tiny bit more cheer. President Obama starts backing up: “I know what to do Mickey Rooney! Let’s give a jobs speech!”, throwing the EPA under the bus. People can smell the fear from way out here.

So the thing I keep asking myself is: will people have the courage to hold tight, and wait 14 months before acting on their plans? Or will they get too excited and start before it is safe to do so. I guess we will find out 🙂