FOR CONGRESSMEN, IF Kumar's words betrayed a hint of the ominous; surely it had as much to do with the serious allegations against Rao as with his shaky political position. Most would consider that the case, in which the controversial god man Chandra swami is a co-accused, is damaging enough to prompt a leader of Rao's stature to make a quiet exit. But so far, a divided Congress has given Rao ample breathing space.

Conventional political wisdom says that when things go wrong the way they have with Rao, the leader would do well to retire gracefully. But by steadfastly sticking to his post, the former prime minister has only whetted the appetite of his detractors for a showdown. Shortly after the CMM issued the summons on July 9, Rao's aides made it clear that they would fight it out. Said Devendra Dwivedi, AICC general secretary and a Rao acolyte: "Rao cannot be expected to step down on the basis of a single testimony." Added R.K. Dhawan: "Those who talk about saving the party should not raise such demands at this stage. The party should be united behind the leader now."

Infighting and power struggles are nothing new in the Congress, but some senior party leaders concede that the crisis last fortnight dragged it to new depths. The signs are that the internal strife will only worsen in the weeks to come. And as the party's support is critical to the survival of the United Front Government, any unpheavals in the Congress like Rao stepping down on his own or under pressure from dissidents-could upset the delicate equation at the Centre.

But at the moment, the focus is on Rao's own future. With his trademark mix of guile and survival instincts, he has managed to buy time by spreading confusion among his detractors and creating dissensions within their ranks.

The strategy for the crucial CWC meeting on July 12 was devised by prominent Rao backers, including Dwivedi, Pranab Mukherjee, Dhawan and Jiten-dra Prasada. It revolved around meeting the onslaught by stressing that the issue of change of leadership-dissidents believe it is the first step towards revitalising the party-be delinked from the Pathak case.

The plan was put into action when Pawar came to Rao's residence on the morning of the meeting with a request to advance it as he had to take an evening flight to Pune. Dwivedi used the occasion to suggest to Pawar that since neither side wanted a showdown, instead of discussing the resignation issue at the CWC, it should be amicably settled outside the formal meeting. When Pawar sounded out

Rajesh Pilot, K. Karunakaran and Bal-ram Jakhar, they too gave their assent.

That accomplished, Rao's aides moved quickly. They first tried to create the impression that Pawar had entered into some sort of a deal with Rao after meeting him in the morning. Rumours flew thick and fast that Pawar might not attend the CWC at all, which in turn led fellow Rao-baiters to fear that the Maratha strongman may ditch them. Pawar, however, scotched these rumours by assuring other senior dissidents that there was no question of his not attending the CWC meeting.

During informal parleys between the two sides before the meeting, Rao's emissaries tried to impress upon Pawar that if the former prime minister was forced out, it would amount to hanging him even before the courts had given a final verdict. But when Pawar, Pilot, Jakhar and Karunakaran insisted on a change of guard, Dwivedi shot back: "If you think you can force the issue in the CWC, take a vote." The dissidents, of course, knew only too well that Rao still commanded a majority in the body.

When it appeared that the dissidents were in no mood to give in so easily, Rao hit back true to his style: he let the word spread through his aides that in the event of a change in leadership, he was willing to make way for A.K. Antony. Rao's calculation was clear: though his detractors were united about wanting him out, they remained divided over the choice of his successor. Even Rao's critics concede that the Antony card was a masterstroke, given the former Kerala chief minister's non-controversial background and, most important of all, his proximity to 10 Janpath.

According to insiders, that sent Rao's detractors scurrying. They then switched tracks and made a fresh demand that the date for an early AICC session be announced at the CWC meeting itself. And that the AICC discuss the schedule for the election of a new party president. This led to heated arguments between the two camps, and the issue remained unresolved even after Rao floated the idea of a working president. The stalemate means that even as party leaders continue to work on a compromise formula, Rao gets some more time to find a way out so that he is not seen either as a leader who was deposed nor as one who ran away when the heat was turned on. But as if to show that they would not let up the pressure, the dissidents later shot off a letter to Rao asking him to name a successor and make a dignified exit from his post. The letter was drafted by Karunakaran and signed by Pawar, Ghulam Nabi Azad, Pilot, Ahmed Patel and Jakhar, all of whom claimed that they would be able to garner more support in the CWC in the days to come.

RAO'S game plan evidently is to first seek judicial remedy in the Pathak case. A team of legal advisers, including high-profile lawyers such as Kapil Sibal, is already active on this front. Should Rao get a judicial reprieve, his supporters say, he will fight to the finish. But as it appears, the Pathak case is just one of Rao's many pending battles (see box in accompanying story). He is also feeling the heat from a raft of other court cases-St Kitts forgery, Jain hawala and JMM payoffs being the most prominent among them. As such, the best deal Rao can make in the coming weeks is to hold out to his detractors the assurance of early elections to the party president's post where he will not contest. His opponents may not grudge him time either. For, most of them believe that Rao would finally opt for a decent burial rather than a bitter power struggle that could drag him through further disgrace.

While Rao has only himself to blame for his current troubles, it is the party which has taken the beating. The divisions within the Congress have intensified, and his supporters, despite their public proclamations, are in despair. Yet Rao now needs something to hang on to in order to extricate himself from the legal tangles. As an anti-Rao CWC member says, "He is unwilling to resign because only as Congress president or CLP leader can he force H.D. Deve Gowda to bail him out."

That Rao is pressing the Deve Gowda Government to grant an extension to CBI Director K. Vijay Rama Rao, whose tenure expires on July 31, is no secret. The CBI director is Rao's appointee, and in the past few years the agency has appeared anything but impartial as far as the former prime minister is concerned. Since the minority government at the Centre needs Congress support for survival, the Rao camp is optimistic that Deve Gowda can afford to ignore him only at the risk of being shown the door.

Besides, Rao has some old faithfuls in the Congress who are ready to oblige him in his hour of crisis. Most party functionaries are Rao appointees and political lightweights like general secretaries Janardhan Poojary and B.P Maurya, treasurer Sitaram Kesri and CWC members such as Oomen De-ori who have no option but to back him as long as he is at the helm. Most of the state Congress chiefs and CLP leaders are Rao's men too. And frontal organisation bosses like Youth Congress President M.S. Bitta and Mahila Congress chief Girija Vyas also stand by him.

Yet cracks have begun to appear in the crucial power centre of the Congress Parliamentary Party (CPP). His managers failed to convince the CPP executive to pass a resolution on July 12 afternoon hailing Rao's leadership. When his loyalist and CPP Executive Secretary V. Narayanaswamy hinted at such a resolution, he found few takers for his proposal.

For a party which is used to being run in the name of the leader, the experience of gunning for its chief is a totally new one. Going by current indications, there is little hope of the Congress recovering in the near future, regardless of changes at the top. To begin with, no transition is going to be smooth as there are too many contenders for the top slot (see box). Pawar and Pilot are in line for the presidentship should Rao step down. Even Karunakaran is angling for the post. Rao in turn is encouraging Antony, Mukherjee and even Kesri to throw their hats into the ring-the obvious motive being that he will then still be able to dictate terms so as to turn the heat off on the legal front.

Once Rao goes, not only will the race for presidentship gather momentum in the Congress, but also the party's complexion could change dramatically. The move to bring back all ex-Congressmen would then gather momentum. Says Antony: "That's the best way for the party's revival."

THE task no doubt will be easier without Rao at the helm, for many who left the party in the past couple of years did so only on account of differences with him. Tamil Maanila Congress (TMC) chief G.K. Moopanar has hinted that in the event of Rao's ouster, his group would seriously consider reuniting with the parent party. Even Ar-jun Singh, N.D. Tiwari and Madhavrao Scindia are expected to troop back.

In a scenario like this, a new power equation will emerge both within the Congress and outside. For one, the party strength in the Lok Sabha will jump from 140 MPs to over 160 MPs (with 20 from TMC, 4 from the Tiwari Congress and 2 from Scindia's group). And given Congressmen's penchant for power, not many believe that a united Congress will be content merely sitting in the Lok Sabha as a prop to the Government.

While a strengthened Congress minus Rao may not be happy news for the ruling United Front, senior members of the Deve Gowda Government are at the moment pleased with the party's internal problems. As a senior cabinet minister says, "With the Congress embroiled in its own crises, it will not be able to pull us down even if it wishes to." Even the Left parties could soften to a Congress sans Rao. Says a senior CPI leader: "If Rao is replaced with a man of more secular credentials, we will find it easier to work with it." Obviously, a divided and debilitated Congress engaged in its own battles will suit the minority government.

This, though, may be the situation till the crisis lasts in the party. Once Rao steps down and a semblance of order returns to the Congress, with the breakaway factions and their MPs back in the fold, things are bound to become difficult for the United Front. But then, that's another story. As for Rao, his nightmare is that the endgame may have begun. With RAMESH SHARMA

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