Senior Conservative backbenchers have called for the early break-up of the coalition after research suggested Tories could lose as many as 12 priority seats in next year's general election to Ukip, leaving David Cameron short of an overall majority.

If performances at this month's Newark by-election are repeated at the poll next May, the Bow Group think-tank calculated that Nigel Farage's party could snatch a dozen constituencies from the Tories "40/40" list of the 40 most vulnerable seats they are defending and the 40 they hope to gain from other parties.

Under this analysis, Conservaties would win just 47 of the seats and Labour 21.

The Bow Group warned that it would be "very difficult" for Mr Cameron to win next year without a "major shift" on issues like Europe and immigration, on which tensions with Liberal Democrats in the coalition are strongest.

Without a change in direction from the Conservatives, Ukip is on track to win seats - most of which will come from the Tories - while Labour would be "significantly more supported than constrained" by the gains made by Mr Farage's party, the group said.

The chairman of the influential Conservative backbench 1922 Committee, Graham Brady, said: " I don't think the coalition should last right up to 2015. I've made the point that I think both parties will need some space, some independence, so that they can present their separate visions to people before the General Election."

Former cabinet minister John Redwood said: "It is vital to the interest of both Liberal Democrats and Conservatives that the Conservatives should be able to articulate their conservative message and the Liberal Democrats theirs, not being governed by the normal niceties of collective responsibility.

"There are many backbenchers who think what should happen now is that the Conservative majority within the Government should start to press very strongly for two or three conservative policies and then when the Liberals really don't like it, maybe the Liberals will wish to leave."

Bow Group chairman Ben Harris-Quinney said: "There has been much talk of listening and hearing from the Conservative Party leadership following Ukip's success in the recent European and Newark elections, and much resulting criticism of continued federalism in Europe following the candidacy of Jean-Claude Juncker for EU president, yet at home we remain in coalition with a committed euro-federalist party in the Liberal Democrats.

"Whilst this continues to be the case, it will be impossible to convince voters that the Conservative Party remains genuinely committed to conservative policies on Europe and immigration. Breaking up the coalition Government as soon as possible would send that signal, and it might be a bold enough move to give the Conservative Party a chance of a majority in 2015."

While Tories won the Newark by-election by a comfortable majority of more than 7,000, the party's share of the vote slumped by almost nine percentage points, while Ukip gained 22 points.

On the basis of this swing, the Bow Group calculates that Ukip could take control of Conservative seats Camborne & Redruth, Thurrock, Newton Abbot, Waveney, Plymouth Sutton & Devonport, and Halesown & Rowley Regis in the 2015 election, and win Tory target seats from Labour in Great Grimsby, Telford, Walsall North, Newcastle-under-Lyme and Plymouth Moorview and from Lib Dems in St Ives.

The Tory rats are deserting the sinking ship, and wanting to be seen to move to the right to satisfy the growing majority of less rational, xenophobic UK voters who are now moving to the UKIP. The writing's probably on the wall for the next election, and the Tories are scared. The Libs have tried to keep the Tories 'centrist'. But it was predicted that they would not gain anything in the long run from the Coalition, because they've been the weaker passive partner. Libs should save themselves and keep some integrity and their liberal values, though very few are interested in these values any more in the UK, so they'll probably go back into oblivion.
People wondered how the German people could have accepted Hitler. Well is history going to repeat itself with Farrage?. Cameron seems to be splashing cash to small industry in UKIP areas. Could this be his fightback strategy against UKIP?

[quote][p][bold]cosmick[/bold] wrote:
No stay together and see it through.[/p][/quote]The Tory rats are deserting the sinking ship, and wanting to be seen to move to the right to satisfy the growing majority of less rational, xenophobic UK voters who are now moving to the UKIP. The writing's probably on the wall for the next election, and the Tories are scared. The Libs have tried to keep the Tories 'centrist'. But it was predicted that they would not gain anything in the long run from the Coalition, because they've been the weaker passive partner. Libs should save themselves and keep some integrity and their liberal values, though very few are interested in these values any more in the UK, so they'll probably go back into oblivion.
People wondered how the German people could have accepted Hitler. Well is history going to repeat itself with Farrage?. Cameron seems to be splashing cash to small industry in UKIP areas. Could this be his fightback strategy against UKIP?Rita Jelfs

I see that Newcastle-under-Lyme is one of the Labour held seats that could be won by UKIP. Given the huge swings to UKIP in recent by-elections and Labour having only a 1,552 majority in this seat at the last general election it seems a foregone conclusion that Nigel Farage's 'Peoples's Army' will win out there next May.

I see that Newcastle-under-Lyme is one of the Labour held seats that could be won by UKIP. Given the huge swings to UKIP in recent by-elections and Labour having only a 1,552 majority in this seat at the last general election it seems a foregone conclusion that Nigel Farage's 'Peoples's Army' will win out there next May.Lucky Lucretia

Here is a brilliant post by 'Bolshie Betty' from another site which explains some of the reason's why many of Labour's previous supporters are now planning to vote UKIP in the next General Election:

Labour, under the leadership of an out of touch metropolitan elite, turned their back on the black, Asian and white working class of this country years ago. The people the Labour Movement was originally formed to protect have been left behind by the scourge of globalization which has benefited only a spoilt elite. Gone is the sense of social justice that was a given when I was at University. Now we have a new breed of ‘I’m all right Jack’ graduates growing up under successive pro-European governments who care nothing for the working class upon which this country depends.

With more than 200,000 migrants entering Britain every year (the size of a large conurbation!), the jobs and trades of hard working Britons are under threat like never before. In the last century Labour sought to protect the working man from harmful competition from migrant workers but now, with it’s colours pinned firmly to the mast of the European dream, they will do nothing. The Labour leadership and their families will never be harmed by migrant labour in the same way as the working class and their children’s job prospects are being harmed. My father who was a hard working shop steward would be horrified at what the Labour party has become.

Here is a brilliant post by 'Bolshie Betty' from another site which explains some of the reason's why many of Labour's previous supporters are now planning to vote UKIP in the next General Election:
Labour, under the leadership of an out of touch metropolitan elite, turned their back on the black, Asian and white working class of this country years ago. The people the Labour Movement was originally formed to protect have been left behind by the scourge of globalization which has benefited only a spoilt elite. Gone is the sense of social justice that was a given when I was at University. Now we have a new breed of ‘I’m all right Jack’ graduates growing up under successive pro-European governments who care nothing for the working class upon which this country depends.
With more than 200,000 migrants entering Britain every year (the size of a large conurbation!), the jobs and trades of hard working Britons are under threat like never before. In the last century Labour sought to protect the working man from harmful competition from migrant workers but now, with it’s colours pinned firmly to the mast of the European dream, they will do nothing. The Labour leadership and their families will never be harmed by migrant labour in the same way as the working class and their children’s job prospects are being harmed. My father who was a hard working shop steward would be horrified at what the Labour party has become.Lucky Lucretia

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