Seasonal climate forecast from CFSv2

Mar 2011 to
Nov 2011 (Updated: Tue Aug 23 13:39:06 EDT 2011)

This page displays seasonal climate anomalies
from the NCEP coupled forecast system
model version 2 (CFSv2). Forecasts are from initial conditions of
the last 30 days, with 4 runs from each day. Forecast ensembles consist of 40 members from
initial a period of 10 days. The 1st ensebmle (E1) is from the earliest 10 days, the 2nd
ensemble (E2) from the second earliest 10 days, and 3rd ensemble (E3) from the latest
10 days. Aomalies are with respect to 1999-2010 hindcast climatology. Temporal
correlations between hindcasts and observations are used as skill mask
for spatial anomalies. Standard deviation to normalize anomalies is the average
standard deviation of individual hindcast members. For SSTs, anomalies with respect
to 1982-2010 climatology are available
here. You may also want to check the
parallel forecast display for CFS version 1.

CAUTION: Seasonal climate anomalies
shown here are not the official NCEP seasonal forecast outlooks.
The NCEP seasonal forecast outlooks can be found at

CPC website. Model based seasonal climate anomalies
are one factor based on which NCEP seasonal forecast outlook is
issued.