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Date of Prediction: 2012-10-09 Version:85

Prediction Map

Confidence Map

Prediction States Won

270 |

538 |

Dem

281

Rep

257

Ind

0

Confidence States Won

270 |

538 |

Dem

227

Rep

190

Ind

0

Tos

121

State Pick-ups

Gain

Loss

Hold

Net Gain

ST

CD

EV

ST

CD

EV

ST

CD

EV

Dem

0

0

0

-5

-1

-78

24

2

281

-78

Rep

+5

+1

+78

0

0

0

22

2

179

+78

Ind

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Analysis

2012 US Presidential Election.
Solid Obama-D
DC-3,HI-4,VT-3,NY-29,MA-11,RI-4,MD-10,CA-55,DE-3,and IL-20=142ev
Likely Obama-D
WA-12,ME-4,NJ-14,and CT-7=37ev(179ev)
Lean Obama-D
NM-5,OR-7,MN-10,WI-10,MI-16,and PA-20=68ev(247ev)
Slight Lean Obama-D
NH-4,NV-6,and IA-6=16ev(263ev)
Obama-D guide to 270 is winning either VA-13 or OH-18 or both.
Obama-D loses all of the McCain States (AZ-11 and MO-10 in the high single digit margin), IN-11 by a 10 percent margin. NC-15 by a 5 percent margin, and FL-29 and CO-9 will be a statistical tie.

Romney-R will win the McCain States plus IN-11,NC-15,FL-29,and VA-13=248ev.
Romney-R guide to victory is OH-18 and CO-9,OH-18 and IA-6.
Obama-D will hold onto NV-6 and NH-4.

By:Olawakandi (D-IL) 2012-10-09 @ 17:07:38

A 1916 election map, interesting to see cause Obama, now leads in Oh 51-47%.

By:nkpolitics1279 (D-MA) 2012-10-09 @ 18:50:17

FL-29,OH-18,NC-15,VA-13,CO-9,NV-6,and IA-6 are the true Tossup Races.
Obama-D wins all of the Kerry States plus NM-5=251ev
Romney-R wins all of the McCain States plus IN-11=191ev
Obama-D will end up winning NV-6 and IA-6=263ev
Romney-R will end up winning FL-29,NC-15,and CO-9=244ev
OH-18 and VA-13 will determine the winner.
Obama-D needs to win either of those states.
Romney-R has to win both of those states.

Romney can win just FIVE Bush states that McCain lost and it could all come down to Iowa: IN, OH, VA, NC, FL. That makes it a 266 to 266 tie, then whoever wins Iowa wins.

Just saying.

By:nkpolitics1279 (D-MA) 2012-10-10 @ 06:58:54

The Obama-Bush States are NH-4(Bush won in 2000,lost in 2004),NM-5(Bust lost in 2000,won in 2004),IA-6(Bush lost in 2000,won in 2004),NV-6,CO-9,IN-11,VA-13,NC-15,OH-18,and FL-29.
NM-5 is going to stay with Team Obama-D 247ev
IN-11 is going to go with Team Romney-R 191ev.
Looking at NH-4,NV-6,IA-6,CO-9,VA-13,NC-15,OH-18,and FL-29.
Lets give Romney-R FL-29 a state he cannot lose in order to win. 220ev, NC-15,VA-13,and CO-9 are the Dole States. 257ev.
Lets give Obama-D OH-18 a state he cannot lose in order to win. 265ev
Obama-D now has to win either IA-6,NV-6,or NH-4.
Another scenario is Obama-D wins VA-13(260ev),NV(266) and IA-6(272ev)
Romney-R wins FL-29,NC-15,OH-18,CO-9,and NH-4(266ev)