Bill Tieleman is one of BC's best known communicators, political commentators and strategists.
Bill writes a politics column Tuesdays in 24 Hours newspaper and The Tyee online magazine.
Bill has been Communications Director in the B.C. Premier's Office and at the BC Federation of Labour.
Bill owns West Star Communications, a consulting firm providing strategy and communication services for labour, business, non-profits and government.

Wednesday, May 29, 2013

BC Liberals blew dog-whistle to get back straying voters in time for BC election win

The BC Liberal
Party's winning election campaign successfully blew a dog-whistle signal to its
many straying voters, calling them home just in time to defeat the BC NDP.

The dog-whistle call
is a simple one that works time and again for the so-called "free
enterprise" coalition that usually governs British Columbia: "jobs
and the economy."

"The socialist
hordes are at the gates in British Columbia," Social Credit Premier W.A.C.
Bennett would warn
every election for two decades, using the original dog-whistle that proved
remarkably successful in keeping the BC NDP out of power till 1972.

The current BC NDP
has run three consecutive campaigns under two different leaders and two
different campaign managers that attempted to mute that dog-whistle by
appearing as moderate and centrist as possible for a social democratic party.

But neither Adrian
Dix in 2013 nor ex-leader Carole James in 2005 and 2009
could stop voters from responding to that instinctual, if irrational, BC
Liberal call.

Christy Clark had
lost the dog-whistle for her two years as premier, because Dix quickly built a
substantial lead in the polls while Clark's constant campaign mode that led to
continual governing errors.

It was only when
Clark took her own tarnished name back out of the BC Liberal Party's own logo,
dropped her ineffectual "Families First" and "B.C. Starts
Here" slogans, and instead focused on the campaign's "Strong Economy.
Secure Tomorrow." theme -- and the alleged NDP threat to it -- that
centre-right leaning voters returned.

Whistling in the
fact-free dark

Never mind that the
BC Liberals had increased debt, lost jobs and were constantly facing political scandals
-- listen to the whistle! Fear the NDP! Ignore the BC Liberal record! Forget
the media reporting facts!

Meanwhile, the BC NDP
was oblivious to the constant dog-whistling during their frontrunner, play it
safe campaign.

Without polling in
key swing ridings -- while the BC Liberals were reportedly canvassing 25 seats
every day -- and with province-wide public polling showing a substantial if
expected narrowing of their lead, the BC NDP was flying blind.

And amazingly, the
party was conducting riding polling earlier this year but dropped that during
the election for reasons not yet explained by campaign manager Brian Topp.

Public polling
appears to have led their campaign team and pundits alike to miss the kind of
signs that would have been more foreboding in the days when polls were banned before
1982 during elections.

Misplaced faith

I ignored some of
those signs too, like when my butcher told me he was worried about an NDP
government's effect on the economy; some small crowds at Dix appearances; the
email warning to me from an ex-NDP MLA that the positive-only campaign wasn't
exciting the party base and the BC Liberals were being let off the hook on
their 12-year record of failures because the NDP wasn't running any negative
ads.

But like others, I
mistakenly put my faith in professional polls showing a significant NDP lead,
even the day before the election -- and polls truly are the coin of the realm
in politics.

This election proved
that the good old right-wing dog-whistle is far more reliable than every
pollster.

And so far, in
campaign after campaign, the BC NDP hasn't found its own dog-whistle to rally
enough voters to win.

Clarification: I should have noted last week that vote counts for
2013 were preliminary and did not include what is now a record 180,000 absentee
ballots; Elections BC reports
they will be tallied this week, increasing turnout to about 56 per cent and
potentially changing the outcome in some closely-fought ridings.

And the NDP's 824,544 votes
in 1986 that I cited included some dual-member ridings where voters got two
choices, meaning the likely NDP high point of support was in 1983, when 46 per
cent of voters backed Dave Barrett in a powerful but losing campaign to Social
Credit Premier Bill Bennett.

8 comments:

I'm afraid you've misappropriated the 'term' dog whistle to some extent. A dog whistle is a rhetorical usage which the speaker does not want part of the audience to hear. The BC Liberals would be happy if everyone thought they were stronger economic stewards. There is nothing to hide in that rhetoric.

What would be a dog whistle would be if the liberals were using rhetoric that was designed to appeal to socially unacceptable groups with plausible deniability. For example, when Republicans south of the border drone on about illegal immigration, many would argue that that was a 'dog whistle' directed to anti-hispanic xenophobes, with the plausible cover that they were merely calling for law-and-order and security.

Saying, or even hinting, that one isn't going to wreck the economy isn't a dog whislte. It's too straightforward for that

Perhaps we should leave the NDP eastern types like Topp out of it next time and return to how the B.C. NDP ran and won on previous occasions. Gerry Scott used to be pretty good at winning. Where was he this time?

As to dog whistle politcs, yes the message certainly was changed and it might have helped the lieberals but no one on the NDP side fought back. We didn't earplug the electorate. We won with Harcourt and Glen Clark. We should have been able to win this time. The caimpaign wasn't good enough. Dix maybe good enough but not the people running the campaign. Dix does have to understand B.C. is bare knuckles fighting. Barrett, Harcourt, Glen Clark and their teams knew it. Eventually not all the dog whistles worked when they ran.

I have watched the NDP and voted for the party since I was a kid in the 50's. This time the campaign just wasn't good enough. the lieberals ran a better campaign and the NDP failed to attack the lieberals or at least list their sins.

The NDP could have countered with jobs such as building 10 new schools in Surrey, jobs in health, forestry, and been willing to look at some natural resource extraction.....didn't hve to do it if it were not in the best interest of the province, but WACie ran on jobs building damms and roads.

Mr. Tieleman - you should go away along with Dix, Sihota, and O'Brien. I've been a NDP supporter and member for 40 years - even been on provincial council. I knew the minute the Surrey king maker - Sue Hammell- decided Dix would be leader that the Liberals would win. Hammell like Dix has never shown good judgment - see yellow scarf high school girls' prank in regards to Carole James. The party has been corrupted by instant members and until bags of memberships and bags of money are not accepted by the party appartchiks it will remain lost and losing. I suggest we change the name of the party to The Numbingly Dumb Party!

The differences between the parties these days are so insignificantly tiny that I don't think those few of us remining in the shrunken private sector will even notice which bunch is in power.

So don't worry - the Liberals are proving just as much socialists as the "moderate" NDP had promised to be. Social welfare programs will continue, even if trimmed. Taxes will rise. Government liquor, marketing boards, government insurance, government ferries, government power, government schools, health care and housing will all remain in place. Even the clipped ALR...

Up till now, times have been good. Deficit budgeting via economic growth and a "there's more where that came from" attitude have been the norm. Voters are fat and sassy. They, more than anything else, want continuity. They're afraid of any change: they want to have reliability and even the slightest tiny inkling of a hint of a threat to their consumer lifestyles is enough to send them scurrying...

^^^^^^^^ The debt will bite this province and country big time in the ass! Taxpayers are oblivious for some bizarre reason that debt MUST be paid back. It's a false economy when all the infrastructure is created with borrowed money.Also, look at the EBC website and see clearly that the Greens took enough votes to kill NDP seats in many areas. Look at Saanich North. a prime example. It's no wonder why the Lieberals promoted the Greens. An excellent strategy on their part. A bad strategy for taxpayers, though.

Hey Anon 14:47, did you happen to read the big column in the Globe and Mail today about Mrs.Photo Ops big problems trying to deliver on even part of the stuff she kept telling folks during the campaign. She opens her moth and grand plans for 20 years down the road satisfied you sort of people. Try to find a name for yourself

Bill Tieleman and Senator Larry Campbell, former Vancouver mayor

Jim Sinclair, Cindy Oliver, Ken Georgetti and Bill Tieleman

Bill Tieleman's coverage of the Basi-Virk/BC Legislature Raid Case praised by other journalists:

"This outstanding piece of journalism, in The Tyee, is the work of a journalist who has been deeply involved with this issue from the start and this article should be passed on as far and wide as possible."

"Bill Tieleman from 24 hours . . . . If you want to know about this trial and about this case, you have to read his blog – I mean, that’s just all there is to it – it’s required reading if you want to understand the BC Legislature Raid situation."

- Mike Smyth, columnist, The Province

"The Basi-Virk case....you’ve probably sat through more of these hearings and gone through more of the files and written about it than any other journalist in the province."

- Bill Good, host, The Bill Good Show, CKNW/Corus Radio Network

"Tieleman ...has done a first-rate job covering the trial."

- Paul Willcocks, columnist, the Victoria Times-Colonist

"Tieleman, who marries a considerable journalistic talent with one of the smartest political minds in the province, has been writing more web-exclusive material. And his coverage of the Basi-Virk trial is a must-read -- whether you're an insider or an outsider."

"24 Hours, the Vancouver paper that has been leading the coverage, as well as the hints of conspiracy in B.C."

- Norman Spector, columnist, Globe and Mail

"Although the major media in this circumstance has been giving the case significant coverage, Tieleman's reports on his blog have been outstanding.

The entire cut and thrust of legal wrangling and arguments has been covered and is accompanied by considered analysis.....His blog site coverage of the Basi-Virk trial is the most in depth treatment of one of British Columbia's biggest political scandals."

- Bill Bell, columnist, The North Shore News

"Mr. Tieleman has published online dispatches which, freed from the limitations of newsprint space or broadcast time, can run at length. They also remain available for those select readers who become obsessed with a case also known as Railgate.....

In another bizarre twist to a story with no shortage of them, Mr. Tieleman went to work one day in December only to discover his office had been ransacked. Bookcases had been tipped over and papers strewn, but nothing was missing.

To top it off, a press kit for the self-published novel The Raid, written by a retired military officer in Metchosin and featuring on its cover a photograph from the 2003 police raid, had been left in a conspicuous place."

- Tom Hawthorn, columnist, The Globe and Mail

Nobody has followed the Basi-Virk affair over its past five years with greater diligence than local journalist, Bill Tieleman....Tieleman deserves our thanks, a fistful of journalism awards and some merit citation for citizenship.