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MATE CHECK

A fine line separates sweet from saccharin, and smart from
sharp. In the view of Americans, how deftly do the current first
lady and would-be first lady walk that fine line? What do voters
say they want in a first lady? Do Americans really know what they
want? The answers to the first two questions from almost 1,000
respondents were complex. However, in the 60 years since the
Roosevelts left Washington, D.C., Jackie Kennedy changed the White
House and Hillary Clinton and Barbara Bush eyed each other like
jackals circling their prey, the answer to the third question is
emphatically, No. Americans' ideas about what a first lady should
be are chock full of contradictions. An exclusive poll for
American Demographics conducted by Zogby International found
the following:

Laura Bush is probably incapable of annoying anyone. A huge
majority of Americans support the idea of a Teresa Heinz Kerry they
just don't seem to like her personally as much as what she stands
for. If Hillary Clinton wants to run for president in a few years,
she's got an uphill battle even among Democrats. Lastly, a message
to Eleanor Roosevelt, if anyone is channeling you these days: Come
back; all is forgiven.

The first lady is the most bizarre volunteer job in the world,
says Ann Gerhart, author of The Perfect Wife, a best-selling
book about Laura Bush. Who would voters prefer to be in that
bizarre job? By a huge margin 54 percent to 37 percent respondents
in the poll picked Bush. Interestingly, in a question about whom
they would prefer as president, the numbers were much closer, with
Bush getting 45 percent and Heinz Kerry 41 percent, with a margin
of error of about 3 percent. In this job, people think of Laura as
safe, says Gerhart, People feel a kinship with her.

I think the biggest thing at work here is that they already know
Laura Bush as first lady, says Deborah Tannen, a linguistics
professor and author of popular books on how people fail to
communicate. There's already a comfort level that they don't have
yet with Teresa Heinz Kerry.

I've heard Teresa Heinz Kerry speak in person, and she is very
warm, says Tannen. But before a TV audience Kerry is less knowable
than Laura Bush. And Heinz Kerry's slight accent makes her seem a
little less familiar, adds TannenE

Surprisingly, party line splits were not particularly strong
predictors in this poll. While 93 percent of GOP respondents said
Bush makes a better first lady, only 65 percent of Democrats backed
Heinz Kerry a defection of 24 percent of Dems chose Bush. But white
Southerners were steadfastly with Bush; Easterners and African
Americans more solidly for Heinz Kerry. People prefer to have
someone like Bush as their mother, by an almost 2-to-1 ratio over
Heinz Kerry. And Bush was the first choice for spouse with 30
percent, compared with 19 percent for Heinz Kerry. Of note,
Elizabeth Edwards pulled in 16 percent as a choice for mother. She
is very maternal, seen as juggling motherhood and working for a
living, Gerhart observes.

Who makes a better role model for young women? Not surprisingly,
GOP respondents gave Bush 89 percent of their support. Democrats
gave Heinz Kerry 61 percent, with another 30 percent of them going
with Bush.

Any poll on a first lady is going to come down to a personality
contest, says Gerhart. And Heinz Kerry's strong personality as an
individual may be undercutting support for her as an archetype.
Americans are still conflicted over how much the first lady should
stay in a secondary role, with few speaking parts, and one
particular question in the poll showed how polarizing a strong
woman remains.

We asked respondents what kind of first lady they preferred as a
model: The traditional, stand-by-your-man type, whose most
controversial stand might be over the need to improve literacy, or
the newer version, Prototype B. As we described the latter: Times
are changing. It is perfectly acceptable for a first lady to have
her own career and ideas, and to express them.

The women in Congress and corporate boardrooms will be thrilled
to learn that 65.5 percent chose B, the upgraded model. But that
number only holds in theory. Asked to name the best and worst
characteristics of Bush and Heinz Kerry, almost 1 in 5 of those
polled, the largest group choosing any positive or negative
adjective, said Heinz Kerry was mouthy/talks too much.

For Tannen, this says more about Americans than about the two
first lady candidates. When have you ever heard a man called
mouthy? she asks.

Some of this reaction to Heinz Kerry can be attributed to the
media and word of mouth, so to speak, says Tannen. People have been
told that Teresa is outspoken, and after a while, that's what they
think and say about her. In her book, Talking from 9-5: Women
and Men at Work, Tannen explains the problem for women in
authority: Why would people say they want women to speak their
mind, but that a woman who does still rubs them the wrong way? We
come to women expecting that they're going to be a certain way, and
we have a certain reaction if they don't. It puts women in public
life in a difficult position.

Who is more of an asset to her husband's campaign? Laura Bush 90
percent consider her an asset. But only 53 percent of those polled
consider Heinz Kerry an asset. And 14 percent of the Democrats
polled consider her a liability. The poll was taken after the
Democratic convention, during which Heinz Kerry spoke, and after
her encounter with a hostile journalist, who she told to shove
it.

Janet Donovan, publicist and director of Creative Enterprises in
Washington, D.C., has seen first ladies and female politicians come
and go in the capital. Although she says she personally prefers
Heinz Kerry as a role model, after seeing the results of the poll,
she adds herself to the numbers who consider Bush more of an asset
to her husband. But Donovan explains, What makes Teresa a liability
during the campaign is that she's out there, she's not safe, like
Laura. However, I think the same qualities that make her a
liability before the election would make her a better first lady
afterward, because she would have issues for which she would speak
up, and work.

Gerhart, as a chronicler of recent first ladies, says she's
intrigued by some of the support for Heinz Kerry. She is fabulously
wealthy, and there's been no shortage of attempts by the GOP to
portray her as out of touch with Americans.

But Teresa has overwhelming support in this poll from those with
the lowest incomes, and among African Americans. Either they are
all Democrats, or Teresa is successful at presenting herself and
her life's work, as that of an outsider, an immigrant, trying to
make it here. There's some sympathy for that.

The most ideal first lady by far, in a long list offered to
respondents, was Eleanor Roosevelt. This surprised experts we
interviewed. Roosevelt was often criticized harshly in her time as
first lady, and made the butt of many jokes when Hillary Clinton
offered her as a role model a few years ago. But more than 1 in 4
likely voters chose Roosevelt; she garnered 41 percent among the 18
to 29 cohort. Maybe those young people are paying closer attention
to history books than we realize, says Gerhart. Hillary Clinton and
Barbara Bush trailed Roosevelt, with about 17 percent, though
Clinton was preferred by African Americans and those with the
lowest income levels.

This business of picking Eleanor Roosevelt mirrors what goes on
with Americans, says Gerhart. She was the most activist first lady
of all time. So, they're saying that activism is the most important
characteristic in the ideal, and then they say that Heinz Kerry is
too mouthy. You can't square these results in this poll.

Roosevelt's win was amazing, says David Beckwith, former
communications czar for Vice President Dan Quayle. Beckwith, now
counsel to the Republican Senate Conference and working for
President Bush says, She was a very empathetic character during the
most difficult time we had. But only people over 70 have any
firsthand recollection of her.

As with Ronald Reagan, Eleanor Roosevelt may have become more
popular in death. Tannen thinks she would not fare as well if she
were around today. She wasn't good looking, she was very outspoken,
not taking a back seat. But this is a name that comes from the past
in glowing terms. The answer has little to do with her.

Speaking of outspoken women, if Hillary Clinton were running for
president right now she would lose, about 55 percent to 42 percent.
A full 45 percent of all respondents said they would definitely not
vote for her. That includes 20 percent of Democrats polled. And
Clinton neatly divided men from women by 10 percent, though the two
genders had been very close on almost every other question. Her
only majority support was among Easterners and African Americans.
Surprisingly, she fared poorly among the youngest voters, whom she
has been courting.

This shows why Hillary has replaced Teddy Kennedy as a rallying
figure for Republicans, says Beckwith, But also the leading
fund-raiser for Democrats. He likened her pull to that of GOP
Congressman Tom Delay of Texas. She has helped the GOP raise money,
as a target, and she is a huge draw for Democrats, he observes.
But, he thinks the anti-Hillary vote among Democrats is more
nuanced than the poll shows. Democrats saw this and were responding
more to the idea of who can beat Bush right now, Beckwith says.

Hillary remains the anti-Laura, says Gerhart. She's either seen
as a trailblazer or self-aggrandizing. It's very partisan.

Beckwith doesn't think that Hillary's gender will matter much in
2008 except perhaps to Bill Clinton. I think the idea of a woman
running for president or vice president has stopped being the issue
it was 20 years ago, he says. We're ready for it.

So, we're ready for a woman president, but not for a mouthy
first lady. People are contradictory, says Tannen, who has
addressed The Hillary Factor. One of the basic tenets of my field
is to ask people not what they would do, but what they really do.
And what did they do here? Says Tannen: They showed that things
haven't changed quite as much as we thought they would have by
now.