“That one can convince one’s opponents with printed reasons, I have not believed since the year 1764. It is not for that purpose that I have taken up my pen, but rather merely to annoy them, and to give strength and courage to those on our side, and to make it known to the others that they have not convinced us.”
G.C. Lichtenberg (1742 – 1799), courtesy of 'Deogolwulf'

Saturday, 10 June 2017

I told you before, don't panic!

As so many times before, I turn to the cool, calm and very expert views of Mr. Daniel Hannon MEP for some sense and sensibility on the subject of Europe. In an article in The Mail he reminds us of one indubitable fact that has been lost to sight during Mrs. May's maelstrom.

In both British and European law, the United Kingdom will cease to be a member of the EU on March 29, 2019.

No ifs, no buts, no maybes, it is all written into law both here and 'just over there'. Someone may have to offer 'SoD' a large drink to help him get over the shock!

The EU's Article 50, which began the formal process of disengagement, was triggered ten weeks ago. Thanks, paradoxically, to the Euro-fanatical campaigner Gina Miller and her court case, its triggering was endorsed by both Houses of Parliament, giving it unarguable authority.

There has been endless waffle about negotiations, agreements, who will play tough and who will play rough, the hard fact is that, whatever, in March 2019, less than two years time, we walk! Of course, being true-blue Brits, we will first raise our hats, shake hands with the gentlemen and 'mwah-mwah' the ladies - but we walk because the law will have it so! Personally, I never thought any sort of deal was likely. Like Mr. Hannan, I would prefer to part on good terms but if push comes to shove then so be it.

He points to Switzerland as an example:

As I kept pointing out before and during the referendum campaign, Switzerland is the second wealthiest country in the world. [My emphasis]

Unlike the EU, it has trade deals with China, Japan and other major economies. It manages to have a flourishing financial services sector which, as a proportion of its economy, is twice the size of ours.

It is often pointed out that Switzerland pays a price for these advantages in the form of freedom of movement.

It's true that Switzerland allows EU nationals to enter its territory and claim certain benefits there — as Swiss nationals can do in the EU. But, crucially, those migrants must have jobs. [My emphasis]

And their benefits, regulated by bilateral treaties, are not subject to constant extension by the European Commission and Court.

Oh and perhaps it could be pointed out to sundry Pollies in Westminster that it is only 477 years since Thomas Cromwell was arrested in Westminster on 10th June 1540. A precedent which should not be ignored.

What will drive the negotiation is of course economic reality and that has not changed. Nobody is asking for any favours and the german corporations whose interests drive all eu affairs cannot afford an acrimonious brexit.

David, The UK's situation is similar to that in the US: Nearly everyone can tell a political upheaval is coming, but no one knows exactly where it will end. As the physicist Niels Bohr noted, "Prediction is very difficult, especially if it's about the future."

Unless, of course, the EU decides to raid the British economic pantry which they can easily do through non-tariff barriers and regulatory decisions Britain will not have the standing to contest. Unless you do decide to recognize the ECJ which will be deciding these issues. They could crush Switzerland anytime they like. I'm not sure they need two. Which, by the by, makes me wonder why anyone thinks appealing to the WTO is less a surrender of sovereignty than putting your case before a body like the ECJ? Anyone know the answer to that one? What number do you call to get the WTO police to arrest Europe should you even manage to secure a ruling in your favor.

Peter, Britain is either the fifth or sixth biggest economy in the world and the EU sells far, far more of their stuff to us than we do to them. Do you seriously believe that the European panjandrums will be allowed, for example, to price Mercedes-Benz off our roads? It is fairly clear that you do not possess much business experience and do not understand that, like dancing the tango, it takes two to buy and sell!

True, SoD, and as Norway's current leader will be happy to tell you, they spend a lot of time passing laws to be compliant with EU regulations over which they have no say. You can be in the tent pissing out or you can be outside getting pissed of on. Those are the choices. But it is all reversible as you say.

So if I understand correctly you believe the EU cannot undertake any of the economic activities that currently take place in Britain. They couldn't, for example, regulate banking and investment in such a way as to make it necessary for those activities in Europe to be based in Europe? They sure can. And they have no interest now in dong anything but that. They have the tools available to steer economic activity to their own markets and eat your current foreign investments. So the British economy will suffer. If you believe those hundreds of millions need you more than you need those hundreds of millions then proceed. I think you know better. As you have told me, economics aren't the most important thing anyway. But that's just to you. I suspect if you were losing your job you may get feel differently. We shall soon see.

What do I know? I've only been running my own business for thirty five years. I think maybe I am finally getting the hang of it.

"Jeremy Corbyn, is more hostile to it (the EU) than any Tory. He was a Leaver as far back as 1975 precisely because he didn't like the economic regulations coming from Brussels.

His Euroscepticism was never really about sovereignty or reducing our payments or controlling our borders. It was about the way EU rules prevented Britain from implementing socialist policies.

Several trade union and Labour figures, including some Remainers, now see Brexit as an opportunity to withdraw from EU rules that hamper the nationalisation of industries, and encourage contracting out of public services to private firms."

Credit to Hannon for being the first MSM bod to observe this fact: The left are starting to realize that the Thatcherite doctrines of the EU are not in their interests.

The left must be wondering why or how they came to believe all the lefty spin and hot air coming out of Brussels when the actions were so palpably Thatcherite.

So now we have a role reversal of juicily ironic proportions!

The UK right wing are anti-EU - set against the very Thatcherite Brussels institution they should be embracing! How long before the right starts to wake up, like the left is doing right now, and realize the EU represents the right's values, albeit cloaked in the necessary lefty spin and hot air?

To be clear, Gaffer: If you really, really believe in exiting the EU, even more than living in a lefty hellhole that makes Venezuela look good, then you should vote Corbyn at the next election.

He is the only one who will get you out of the EU for sure.

Would you really do that? It's logically the soundest step forward for you given Hannon's piece above. Is the statement, "We've taken back control, and it's our pols now, so that's alright" really worth seeing Blighty descend to Venezuelan depths, lower even than it was in the 1970's?

Or should you step back from the abyss, think of your own personal interests and that of your family, the true basis of the Thatcherite right winger, and endorse the only institution in your reach that upholds her legacy?

"True, SoD, and as Norway's current leader will be happy to tell you, they spend a lot of time passing laws to be compliant with EU regulations over which they have no say. You can be in the tent pissing out or you can be outside getting pissed of on. Those are the choices. But it is all reversible as you say."

That's the price you pay for leaving the EU. The choice now is merely one of "least worst".

But by keeping up with the EU rules and regs on our statute books Norgie style, it means rejoining will be easier. The further adrift we go, the greater the swim back.

And if we really do need to leave the EU if circs change going forward, the Norgie position is at least a half-way house. It's a 4 squares in the centre of the chessboard position: -

- Keeps the hard left at bay at home with Thatcherite anti-nationalization and pro-competition rules and regs
- Let's us cut deals with other trading blocks if we choose to be outside the customs union I.e. further prep for leaving if necessary later
- Let's us rejoin EU smoothly and quickly later

For right wingers it's a no brainer, which is handy given the state of their collective cranial voids.

' Labour would take Britain out of the Single Market
John McDonnell says the party have been clear all along - they want a 'jobs first' Brexit.
He says that staying in single market would be perceived by the public as "not respecting the outcome of the referendum." '

If you want out of the EU, he's made it clear: You've got to vote Corbyn. And the next election is fast approaching.

Which is it going to be, Gaffer? Venezuala? Or, 3.2% growth, shrinking deficit, nationalization and statism curtailed, and long-legged, pert-breasted, high-cheek-boned, inky-blinky dahlinkies serving you lattes in the care home?

9:26am
"Almost half of Britons believe Theresa May should quit as Prime Minister, according to polls conducted since the general election.
A YouGov poll for the Sunday Times suggested 48 per cent thought she should stand down, with 38 per cent saying she should stay, while Survation for the Mail on Sunday had 49 per cent of people saying she should quit, with 38 per cent saying she should remain in the post.
The Survation study gave Labour a five-point lead over the Tories, with Jeremy Corbyn's party on 45% and the Tories on 39 per cent."

You remember your nickname, "Static Duff", on the wargames table?! Well it's not toy soldiers now! You need Blitzkrieg, not trench warfare from now on in, coz it's gonna be fast moving: shoot and move, shoot and move.

Britain is not just leaving the EU it is also leaving the Customs Union and is it not SoD? I am not sure what the thiking was on that score. Do they imagine a negotiated free trade deal with the EU will allow Britain to act as a conduit for goods currently subject to the common tariff policy into Europe duty free? Well that isn't going to happen. What you actually get to do is fill out extra country of origin paperwork certifying where your exported goods originate. Lie and you are looking at jail time. I've been filling out this paperwork since NAFTA was instituted. And when I am done that paperwork my managers get to arrange a PARS so the goods I ship to the US can cross the border. Which doesn't happen until American ICE agents approve it. If I am lucky and it's approved then maybe it won't be selected for audit and secondary inspection. Which they also regularly do.

This bureaucratic system took years to evolve and refine and yet even today disturbances can cause traffic pileups at the US/Canadian that are many many kilometers long. I don't think you are ready for this. I don't believe they have begun to imagine what will happen when the Le Touquet deal fails post Brexit.

about the only people looking forward to may 2019 are the soros type financial operators.
and comparison with switzerland is a bit specious as they were not part of the EU and don't have 40 something years of regulatory harmonisation. single market access must remain otherwise hello recession and a junk rating for government bonds.