Secretary of State John Kerry Admires Lake Geneva, French Alps. January, 2014. (Photo by Dept of State)

Next Cold War Roundup 2/1/16

Syrian Peace Talks

After delays and controversies, the Geneva 3 Syrian peace talks are proceeding, despite many experts’ doubts that they would ever get started or produce any useful results. The Saudi-backed High Negotiating Committee arrived in Geneva after receiving some assurances from the US and Russia. But they also sent the leader of a Saudi-backed rebel group, Jaysh al-Islam, a group designated as terrorist by Russia and Syria.

_ On Monday, AFP reported that HNC is presently participating in the talks and Jaysh al-Islam commander Alloush is in Geneva, saying he will lead the negotiations for the HNC opposition umbrella group. The Russians, who have designated Jaysh al-Islam as a terrorist group and see little difference between them and ISIS, are not happy. The Syrian government also considers them terrorists. Different people have been reported as the HNC leader for negotiations in differentnewsarticles: Riyad Hijab (former Syrian prime minister and politician), Asaad al-Zoubi (former Syrian army general, now FSA), and now Mohammed Alloush (Saudi-backed rebel group Jaysh al-Islam political leader). One wonders if this is really what was causing HNC to refuse to attend the talks last week while they claimed it was humanitarian reasons (which was never very credible given the past actions, including siege, by HNC rebel group allies).

_ Syrian Kurdish leaders who went to Geneva hoping for an invitation to the talks have now left. Saleh Muslim, leader of PYD and Ilham Ahmad, “Kurdish co-head of an Arab-Kurdish joint council in Syria” both left. A PYD party member said “Yes, we left Geneva because we did not get invitations […] We will not commit to any decision that comes out of Geneva, including a ceasefire agreement.”

Ukraine Proposes Sending to Syria for Anti-ISIS Coalition

_ The Ukraine defense ministry has drawn up plans to send troops to Syria, which will be discussed this week when US Sec Def Ash Carter visits. He has been meeting with defense ministers to get more support for NATO and the anti-ISIS coalition in Syria. Ukraine govt. source: “We have prepared a range of options for our support against Isis including in Syria, which could include troops. It could result in potential clashes with Russians.”

“Russia has established new rules of engagement on the Syrian-Turkish border, and has retained the upper hand for the Syrian air force and the Syrian army, Russia also refurbished and upgraded custom made Syrian MiG29, to protect the Russian air force squadrons, with clear orders to shoot down Turkish planes that enter the Syrian air space”

“The agreement previously concluded with Turkey during the presidency of the late Hafez Assad in 1998, which says no Syrian air force units should come within 15 Km of the Turkish-Syrian border on Syria’s side […] the agreement also included that no army battalions are to be deployed, and that only officers and border control personnel are allowed, this has all gone down the drain”