Wednesday, October 25, 2006

Sometimes it's great to be wrong

On a recent Huckeberries Online thread about the chances of Grant winning the race, I said this:

I think Sali has done a terrible job of campaigning. Contrast his campaigning style with Otter's. Neither is an incumbent, but both are Republicans in Idaho which probably gives them the same advantage that an incumbent would have in a less one-sided state. Otter has avoided Brady at every turn, and even his campaign ads attack Kempthorne and don't even mention Brady. Otter's hardly lifted a finger while Brady is campaigning his butt off, but I doubt that Brady can win the name recognition battle in the end. Sali, on the other hand, has been yammering about Larry Grant since the very beginning, and look where it's gotten him. The more people know who Larry Grant is, the more they know they don't have to vote for Bill Sali. At the Lewiston debate it was really clear - Grant's closing statement was about his plans "when" he goes to congress, while Sali's statement was about how liberal Larry Grant is. What do I remember after all of that? Larry Grant.

I'm still convinced that Sali spent too much time highlighting Grant's existence, but it looks like I have good reason to reconsider my appraisal of Otter's hands-off campaigning style.

Montana Gov. Brian Schweitzer joined Jerry Brady, Democratic candidate for governor of Idaho, at a press conference a few minutes ago to release Brady’s internal polls – which now show Brady pulling into the lead with a two-point edge over Republican Butch Otter. Brady’s polling, conducted by Goodwin Simon Victoria Research, showed Brady trailing Otter 29 percent to 48 percent in June, closing the gap to 34-45 in early September, and then pulling ahead 42-40 in mid-October. Statistically, that’s a dead heat.

Sounds pretty good to me. See here for more info on the poll, which seems pretty solid.