personally i think that Armadillo's idea of having computers doing all the work is the way forward realy, no doubts in a decades they will all be run on giant computers for everything, even things like the euro fighter are so computer run that humans alone couldnt fly it without crashing everyfew seconds.

But to turn to your comparison - who might become the equivalent to Microsoft?

I believe we haven't seen the next microsoft yet.

The next microsoft will be a company who is quietly waiting in the wings (perhaps planning and ammassing investment) to see what the most successful model for sub-orbital / orbital launches will be.

Admitedly, the three main competitors have three very different models and while you may say that the firm with the best model will be the next microsoft, they may lack the cashflow and the business intuition to carry this through.

You know what I want to see (and be part of)? "The Apprentice - Space Race." We all get given a million dollars and a working suborbital spacecraft and see who can make the biggest and most profitable company.

The essential origin of Microsoft's success was to look for and to create an easy and cheap way to make computers usable and controlable for everyone. And they began at an amount of equipment availiable to each similar sized group of people.

So concerning private spacecrafts a Microsoft-like firm perhaps will be a team that finds a way to make such spacecrafts easy usable and manageable for everyone.

Which XPRIZE-team has the easiest usable and controlable spacecraft today? Are there possibilities and opportunities to increase that?

I think Armadillo will win, because Carmack owns, its simple as that. Nobody can touch him in game engines, so I dont see why he cant be untouchable in Aerospace too! And if they dont win, they're still doing something to advance the human race, so go Carmack!

lol, carmack is a great man, but i don't think he's a god (a programming one sure, but he's only a minor demi-god of aerospace so far, though a really really cool one). burt rutan is an aerospace god, but none of the other xprize competitors have done quite enough to earn that title. though i guess he might not count since he already was one.

lol, carmack is a great man, but i don't think he's a god (a programming one sure, but he's only a minor demi-god of aerospace so far, though a really really cool one). burt rutan is an aerospace god, but none of the other xprize competitors have done quite enough to earn that title. though i guess he might not count since he already was one.