With primary over, does Scholten have a chance in 4th District?

Wednesday

With the primary behind him, Democrat J.D. Scholten now has to to try his hand at getting non-Democrats to vote for him in his quest to beat longtime GOP Rep. Steve King.

After last week’s primary election, David Andersen, an assistant professor of political science at Iowa State University, said he was surprised at how well Scholten fared, easily surpassing his Democratic rivals. And with a healthy amount of cash on hand — $195,348.40 as of mid-May, according to the Federal Elections Commission — Scholten could have a chance at King, who’s never been seriously challenged in his eight elections, Andersen said.

“It seems like he’s well positioned to give King the best race he’s had in a long time,” he said.

According to the unofficial results, Scholten, a paralegal from Sioux City, won 14,514 (51.2 percent) of the 4th District’s Democratic votes. He won 30 of the district’s 39 counties, running up large margins in Woodbury and Story counties, two of the most populous in the district.

One of his challengers, Spencer City Councilwoman Leann Jacobsen, collected victories in nine counties but finished more than 5,000 votes behind Scholten, according to the unofficial results. Ames pediatrician John Paschen finished a distant third.

“He really kind of cleaned house (on primary night),” Andersen said, mentioning even if one of his competitors had dropped out of the race, Scholten still would’ve won.

In all, the unofficial turnout for the primary came in at 279,124, the third most in Iowa’s history according to the secretary of state.

Andersen said he expected Scholten, 38, to finish somewhere around 40 percent. To him, Scholten’s 51 percent showed he already has the wide support among Democrats he’ll need for November.

“Now he has to figure out how he can communicate with traditional Republican voters in the 4th district,” Andersen said.

For his part, Scholten offered anecdotal examples during the primary campaign of Republicans supporting and even donating to his cause. After his victory late Tuesday night, he told the Tribune that his campaign and mindset wouldn’t change much now that the primary is over. He added that he’d “love” to debate King, something Andersen said the longtime Congressman might be open to.

Charles Aldrich won the uncontested election for the Libertarian nomination, earning 338 votes, according to the unofficial results.

Jan Bauer, the longtime chair of the Story County Democrats, said that now the primary is over, Scholten should begin reaching out to the “no parties,” the voters who don’t register with either major political party. According to the secretary of state’s office, as of this month, there are 174,599 no-party voters in the 4th District.

She said maybe the campaign will even bring some Republicans into its camp, but Scholten will also have to be sure to keep Democrats enthused and invested. She said she sensed Tuesday night that they were rallying behind him.

“Nobody can stay home,” she said.

Andersen said some of the national attention on the race, which has happened when King’s authored controversial tweets that enliven Democrats’ opposition, will help with campaign fundraising and then in turn pay for a staff that will keep getting his message out. He also “absolutely” thinks Scholten will be appearing in TV ads during the campaign, too.

Appealing to King voters — and getting them to switch over and vote for him instead — will be a “tough sell,” Andersen said. But there may be a small opening for an upset in a year ripe with Democratic enthusiasm and growing national resentment for some of King’s social views (like the “somebody else’s babies” tweet). Scholten has also out-fundraised King the past two quarters, according to filings with the FEC.

Right now, the 4th District’s partisan voter index is rated R+11, according to the Cook Political Report, meaning it’s reliably Republican. Cook, a nonpartisan newsletter that handicaps Congressional elections, doesn’t currently list King’s seat as one the “competitive” races. The GOP congressman almost always cruises in general elections — his smallest margin of victory was 8 percentage points in 2012.

King isn’t vulnerable yet, but, Andersen said, if all the pieces fall into place for the Democrats, he could be. The difference could be how well the campaign’s run. So far, Andersen is complimentary of Scholten’s team.