This Isn’t Reality TV

Jeff Shesol, a deputy chief speechwriter to President Bill Clinton, is a partner at a communications strategy firm. He is the author of “Supreme Power: Franklin Roosevelt vs. the Supreme Court."

Updated January 16, 2013, 3:26 PM

The question of whether Donald Trump has a chance — a question that is right now gripping every American who hosts a cable news program — probably needs a bit of reframing.

One of the troubles for Donald Trump is that in politics, ludicrousness has a short shelf life.

If the question is whether Mr. Trump has a chance of becoming president of the United States, the answer is no, of course he doesn’t. But if the question is whether Mr. Trump has a chance of making Michele Bachmann look deliberative, then you’d have to say, yes, his chances are pretty good. As are his chances of making the “birther” wing of the G.O.P. start to wonder whether they should just let the whole thing drop.

One of the troubles for Donald Trump is that in politics, unlike reality TV, ludicrousness has a short shelf life. It can be fun to watch a political candidate who refuses to stick to stale talking points and who turns public life into a kind of performance art. But only for a while. Sarah Palin may already have slid to the wrong side of the refreshing-to-embarrassing curve — the side that Mr. Trump has occupied since his hair took a holiday in the early 1980s.

America does, from time to time, fall hard for brash businessmen who promise to clean up the nation’s books, clear out the dead wood and run the government like a Fortune 500 company. In this way, Ross Perot made a certain sense in 1992, with the economy in recession. But today, at a time when politicians of both parties are striving to out-tighten the national belt, it is harder to see Mr. Trump — whose name, thanks to his relentless efforts, is synonymous with conspicuous consumption — as the answer to the nation’s prayers.