Obama's odds of winning re-election have climbed back to 65%-70% since the second debate, according to three sources we're tracking:

Nate Silver's aggregate poll forecast

Intrade's prediction market

Betfair's prediction market

First, Nate Silver of the New York Times now gives Obama 66% chance of reelection. That's up from a post-first-debate low of ~60% a few days ago. And Silver says the impact of Obama's strong performance in the second debate hasn't yet factored into the polls he looks at.

Keep believing it is true in the face of all evidence against it. And when it turns out not to be true, you’ve set the stage for the Dem base to claim Romney stole the election and to riot. Welcome to the presidency, Mr. Romney! Your first act will be to call out the military to put down riots by Libs who believe this BS.

17
posted on 10/18/2012 7:40:26 AM PDT
by Opinionated Blowhard
("When the people find they can vote themselves money, that will herald the end of the republic.")

Turnout on our side is what gives us the chance to prove them wrong. Those who love America have no cause for sitting this election out. Its all on the table this time around.

I absolutely agree. There are a lot of good signs in Romney's favor these days, however, we cannot afford to get complacent at this critical stage of the campaign. I do not know who Nate Silver is, but we should not abitrarily dismiss people like him, or assume any poll favoring Obama is biased, and therefore inaccurate. We need to treat this as a very close election (as it very well could be) and leave nothing to chance. We need to fight hard for every vote right up until the polls close on election day.

There’s 100% chance that Nate Silver is the creepiest person I have ever seen in my entire life. The first and only time I stumbled across him while channel surfing I had to immediately change the station. The few seconds I saw of him were very uncomfortable to watch.

Nate Silver writes for a liberal audience for a liberal rag that only liberals read. His #1 objective is readership, not the truth. The truth won’t be out until a day or two before the election and until then he needs as many readers as he can get reading his blog.

Just as a reminder... in 2008, my fellow FReepers were posting as to why Nate Silver was full of crap in his predictions. Just as I see on this thread. Hey, he may be full of crap, but he just plugs in numbers and reports.

It could happen. This isn’t over. Those on food stamps, disability payments, section 8 housing, those making calls on Obamaphones, etc. will show up to vote for a continuance of their benefits. Liberals and black voters (some overlap) will show up to vote for Zero. It will be an uphill battle until the end.

47% of likely voters either believe that this unmitigated disaster deserves another chance to turn things around, -or-, they think that Obama is actually making progress toward destroying our country because they, too, hate everything it stands for.

Even if Romney manages to prevail in a "landslide" these people will not "self-deport."

I'd rather have every single one of 12 million illegal aliens than any one of American Democrats voting for Obama....because from a standing start, not being indoctrinated by our leftist school system, the illegals have a higher chance of becoming productive Americans than the twisted "educated" occutard types.

Delusional beyond belief. Didn’t they see the response of Luntz’s undecideds? Didn’t the see the CNN poll give Romney a 2 to 1 advantage on the economy? They saw it, of course, but pretend these things don’t exist. They have to. They want so much to believe their Messiah will go on a President.

Nate silver is a crazy ex Daily Koz radical leftist trying to lie and intimidate all other posters into using Axelrod’s 2008 voting patterns.
He is a nasty fraud.

Intrade crap is a useless scam .
Its an offshore gambling operation packed full of foreigners and con artists .
It operates outside of Us and international law in Ireland !
It’s means nothing !
Why is it used by the leftists unless
They have rigged it !!
Think about it !

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