With Pettitte, Yanks round out a nice rotation

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While the Astros and their fans hope for a healthy Roy Oswalt, a rejuvenated Mike Hampton and an improved Wandy Rodriguez, the Yankees have hit the mother lode of a pitching rotation.

I am by no means a Yankees’ fan, nor am I a Yankees’ hater. But I am a bit envious of the rotation that GM Brian Cashman has put together this winter.

Newcomers C.C. Sabathia and A.J. Burnett will lead the way into the new Yankee Stadium. Chien-Ming Wang follows and then there’s Andy Pettitte and Joba Chamberlain.

Barring injuries, the Yankees have no excuse for not making the playoffs. They’ve invested $254,400,000 in their rotation (guess who’s making the $400,000?).

The other question is: which of these starters is the ace? Sabathia is a workhorse — he’s thrown 494 innings the last two seasons and had his career-best ERA in ’08 (2.70). Wang will be 29 on Opening Day, but made only 15 starts in ’08 after back-to-back 19-win seasons. Burnett, the 32-year-old former #2 of the Blue Jays’ staff, could be the third best starter in this rotation.

At 36, the newly-signed Andy Pettitte is the old man in the group. He’s never had a losing season and may feel like he’s got a lot to prove with nearly $7 million in incentives on the line.

The 23-year-old Chamberlain will wrap up the back end of the rotation, “setting up” #1 Sabathia or Wang every fifth day.

Like this rotation? How does it rank against the Red Sox’ Beckett, Lester, Matsuzaka, Wakefield and Penny (or Smoltz or Buchholz)?

Or maybe you like Shields, Kazmir, Garza, Sonnanstine and Price over in Tampa Bay.

I much prefer the way that the Rays have done it with young pitchers. But then again, Wang, Pettitte and Chamberlain all came up through the Yankees’ system.

It’s nice to talk about deep pitching staffs for a day. Enjoy it, because the pitching isn’t nearly this deep in the NL Central.

So who’s the ace of the Yankees’ staff? Does it matter? How many wins does Sabathia and Wang get? Do they have the best pitching rotation in the AL East? The entire AL?

And, is Pettitte able and willing to settle in out of the limelight behind the Big Three?

• •• ••• •• •

• The Astros’ signing of Rodriguez and Geoff Geary on Monday means they have committed $39.4 million (plus a few million in incentives) to 10 pitchers. The other two spots will be filled by league-minimum type pitchers a la Chris Sampson and Wesley Wright.

• Mere speculation here, but could the Astros (read Ed Wade) have an eye on Adam Eaton? Wade once traded him as Phillies’ GM and he likely may be on his way out, according to several sources. If he’s released, the Phillies would be on the hook for his $8.5 million salary and a team could take a $400,000 flyer on him.

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20 Responses

Bill Holmes – I think Girardi will give AP the exhibition opener against the Cubs. But CC will be their opening day pitcher on the road. NYY doesn’t make their home debut until the 16th of April – almost two weeks into the season – I guess they wanted enough time to have the silver toilet handles polished.

Regarding the rotation, profit aside, I think Drayton is overlooking the potential LOSS should he continue with the self imposed current budget. Without a marque signing to hype ticket sales and the distinct possibility that this team might tank early with the present roster, an attendance drop of a half million is not a reach. With a weak rotation and big question marks behind the plate, at third, in center and no depth elsewhere, a solid pen and the several potential All Stars we have won’t necessarily keep this team from sinking back towards a 2007 finish. Too many things have to go right for the present cast to compete.

Where’s that prediction blog, Chip? Time to see if some of our bold assumptions come true. Don’t remember if I went waaaaaay out on a limb to boldly predict Pettitte to the Yankees (cough) but I want my points if I did.

Now the big question is will the Tradition Team let Andy pitch Opening Day in the new stadium (“The House That George Built At Gunpoint”)? I think he’s owed that honor, and I would stand and cheer. Wheel George out and let him roll the first pitch to Jeter. Then I can finish applauding and go back to despising the Yankees.

Boston is going to win anyway, and Tampa will take the wildcard, so how do you spell yankee?

c-u-b-s….

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“Or maybe you like Shields, Kazmir, Garza, Sonnanstine and Price over in Tampa Bay.”

I like what the Yankees put together for 2009, although I think Chamberlain should be groomed to replace Mo as the 1-2 inning capable lights-out closer. But I’d take Tampa’s rotation straight up over the Yankees – short term it would be very competitive; long term (and financially) for the next 5-8 years they will rival the Atlanta Braves glory days of the 90s and early 2000s. Price might be the best of the bunch when all is said and done.

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Steven, if you start breaking those long comments into paragraphs, I’ll read them. Otherwise my head hurts by line three.

(Not your fault that I’m less tolerant as I get older, blame my parents for hooking up when they did.)

[On Pettitte, I wanted to recommend that he include an Opening Day assignment in his contract negotiations since the Yanks pulled the original $10 million offer.]

Nice comment Steve. I have been trying to put the Astros problems in words, but I’m not that savvy yet when it comes to the team ecomnomics. I must say you hit that nail on the head. I was reading Bags comments on MLB, and I found it interesting that he pointed out the Astros season standing as a reason for a bad draft year after year. Doesnt make too much sense when you look at teams like the Pirates. If you based it on good seasons and high draft picks they should be stock piled with young talent.

(Hmm, it seems our annoying friend here is lost.) Not annoying Andy, I just think you know allot about baseball for being a female. lol

Well, Chip, as a Red Sox fan (jumped on the bandwagon just in time in 2003…woot) I am definitely a Yankees hater.

My guess would be that their new rotation will do well, or it’ll go down in flames. And given the sensitive egos involved, I’m sure it’ll be a little from column A, and a little from column B. Remember, Sabathia and Burnett have NO experience with the type of media scrutiny they’ll face on a daily basis in NYC. Don’t make too much of it…just keep it in the back of your mind.

Even still, the Rays have a better rotation. And depending on how the Red Sox perform, they may also have a better rotation. Just because Sabathia was the “prize” of the offseason doesn’t really mean much. Beckett was better in 2007, but the writers gave Sabathia the Cy Young. Beckett then went out and tarred Sabathia’s feathers in the playoffs, proving who the REAL Cy Young winner should have been.

But as another poster said, injuries will happen. And the Red Sox are no less susceptible. In fact, I’d put Beckett down for at least two DL trips already. Hopefully this year it’s nothing lingering in September.

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“Andy?”

Hmm, it seems our annoying friend here is lost. There are a couple “Andrew”‘s here, but no Andy’s.

And let me add this all ties in with all the topics discussed over the last few weeks, this team is salary strapped, they certainly have the payroll to win, as pointed out by Justice a few days ago they have had a higher payroll annually then 5 of the last 7 world series winners. The problem is the STRUCTURE. If I were starting a roster, and we did it rotisserie style where you give me a certain a salary cap and each player has a salary based off of performance, I would have easily half my entire salary structure tied up into my rotation, the Astros are the pretty much the opposite. Outside of Roy their salary restraints are tied up in Berkman, Lee, Tejada and Matsui. You can argue that Tejada and Matsui don’t match their salaries in performance, but it has to be paid nonetheless. It was opposite in 2004-2005 when the big salaries belonged to the big 3 in the rotation, that pretty much flip flopped (though to the Astros credit they certainly felt that Jennings and Williams were going to be big parts of this team and they accounted for some big pay days too). Unfortunately we can debate the Sheets and Garlands of the world till we are blue in the face, but reality is Drayton is not going outside his own self imposed salary cap unless he sees a profit in it (like he did when Clemens practically paid for himself). He is strapped until the salaries of Matsui, Tejada, and Lee are off the books, so we are stuck with pieced together rotations.

Well on paper the Yankees have far and away a better rotation, and its true on the field too. Roy is what Roy is, out of both rotations he has the best track record and is therefore, by most people, going to be considered the best of the 10 candidates in the 2 rotations, though it is certainly arguable that at this point in their careers CC is the better pitcher. But the fact that the Yankees slots 2-5 would all be number 2 candidates in our rotation about sums up where we are. There were lots of good talk about Backe and Rodriguez yesterday, I just got around to the blog this morning but it was great stuff, thanks for the read guys. Overall I think there is a general sense of disappointment because most people have felt that Backe and Wandy should be BETTER then they have been, while on the other side of the coin some folks say leave them be and let them be what they have performed at as long as they are slotted at 4 and 5. There is no doubt about one thing though, Moehler-Hampton-Rodriguez-Backe are all going to account for alot of innings left UNPITCHED that other pitchers are going to have to account for. I hope our bullpen is as good as people think it is, because it is certain to be taxed heavily. None of those 4 are candidates for 200 innings, only Hampton and Moehler have reached that before and both are over 5 years removed from the last time they did it. I saw one post yesterday that eluded to the fact that Wandy is only slightly below MLB average in innings per start and that its not hard to find a reliever to make up for 1 inning every 5 days, but it doesnt work like that. It would be nice if it did but here’s reality; Wandy will pitch 3 games in a row going at least 6 sometimes 7 innings, pitching well, then bam one game he will get blown up in the 3rd and yanked. The result is that maybe today you have to get 3 innings from one reliever and 2 from another and 2 from another, effectively killing what opportunity you have to use those same guys tomorrow. Then what happens when Backe follows with one of his 3 innings 7 ER performances? All of a sudden you have taken the availability of 2/3rd of your pen out and 6 inning Moehler pitches tomorrow. At this point there is a lot of pressure on Roy to be the guy to give the pen a break, now Roy is throwing fewer fastballs and pitching to contact to try and limit his pitch counts to get extra innings. Backe and Rodriguez pitch well enough at times to be serviceable, at times they ruin entire 2-3 week stretches by placing other relievers outside their roles, putting more pressure on the top of the rotation to account for extra innings, and damaging your bullpen arms by overtaxation. We simply can’t have guys that pitch serviceable at times if we want to contend, we need guys that, even when they have a start that runs up the ERA some, manage 5 innings, not some of the monumental lines these guys have managed (like that 2 starts in a row Backe had last year where he combined for 3 innings and 18 runs?). This is where the Yankees beat us, Pettitte is past going out and having 5 starts in a row where he goes 4-1 with a 1.50 ERA and 38 innings in those 5 starts, but he isn’t going to have monumental blow up games and won’t take his team out of the game by the 2nd inning, tax his bullpen, or put extra pressure on the top of the rotation. Of course on the flip side thats why Pettitte stands to make 12 mil as a 4 starter while our 2 starter stands to make 2 mil.

Good morning Chip. Nice topic. Yes, the Yankees have the make-up to be the best pitching staff in the American league. But then again it’s the Yankees and I think God has it out for thier bullyish ways. I would love nothing more than to see them not make it to the playoffs again.

I am very interested to see how C.C pans out for them. Somthing tells me he isnt going to have a CY-Young year. And if that happens, hold on to your hats Yankees fans. Things could get very interesting. Back to the National league. Im curious to see who our fans vote for the best NL pitching staff?? Chip? Andy?

Read between the lines West Side – I don’t see Joba making 15 starts, much less 20-25. Other issue with him last season – mph in 1st inning minus mph in the 6th inning was a huge 6 mph delta – meaning he won’t go the minimum 5 IP to get a lot of wins if he makes 20+ starts. I think they should keep him in the pen and give Hughes the #5 spot – but its Hank and Hal’s team now…

KerbyTex – any team can beat any pitcher and any pitcher can have a day where he shuts down the opposition. That said – CC and his cutter and 94 mph gas is really tough and Burnett’s breaking stuff would be hard on most Astros not nicknames Puma. Wang’s cutter can be great but the injury was a foot injury – which can make things change after rehab – so he’s still something of an unknown for 2009. Pettitte and Joba would (and will) get hit really hard against teams with some plate discipline – or teams that eat LHP. Biggest question is can they beat BOS and TB – they have a really good chance 3 out of 5 games – but then so do BOS and TB!

[For '09, the Yanks easily outdistance the Astros on paper, don't you think? But C.C. and A.J. are signed for an extended number of years and that could get interesting if their skills decline or they're injured. And, Kerby, how do you rate the two staffs?]

That’s going to be a tough division. The 3 best teams in baseball are all in the same division fighting for 2 playoff spots. If they all stay relatively healthy we will probably see the 3rd best team in baseball missing the playoffs.

Yankees have to be a huge favorite at this point. Although they are more susceptible to injuries than the Red Sox or Rays….and injuries always happen.

I mostly agree with H, though I think he’s aiming a litle low on Chamberlain’s numbers. Wandy Rodriguez would win 10 games with the Yankees offense behind him. Chamberlain, who is much more talented than Wandy, won 4 in just 12 starts last year. He was used mostly out of the pen. I think he’ll definitely put together a few wins if he can make 25 to 30 starts.

NYY – excellent rotation with CC as the regular season ace and Burnett as the post-season ace. But, there is no depth and the drop off after these 5 is a cliff, not a 3-meter board! Is it more formidable the BOS or TB – not for certain it isn’t – that’s a lot of money to just play catch up!! But NYY should still have a better offense than BOS and TB – so it just might get them in the post-season IF none of the starting 5 miss more than a start or two. BOS and TB are both significantly deeper with better quality behind the first 5 – despite all the scratch, the Yankees have no margin for error.

Wins:

CC – 21

Burnett – 14

Wang – 18

Pettitte – 11

Chamberlain – 6

All other starters – 7

Someone will get A Eaton for league minimum – I think TOR might even pay more as would WAS and maybe FLA – I don’t think he will be an Astro – but you never know. But his kind of like Moehler without the killer instinct (TIC).

HOU has a lot of good bullpen arms – could be some movement in ST for a team that needs relief help.