Houston is not at risk of a housing bubble, but a housing shortage,
according to industry watchers.That's the view of Tim
Welbes, president of the Woodlands Development Co., who spoke Friday at the
Woodlands Area Chamber of Commerce Economic Outlook Conference. Welbes said that
based upon projected population increases, Houston will need 77,000 new
single-family homes in 2014. Homebuilders are expected to build about 28,000 new
homes this year, resulting in a shortage of about 50,000 single-family
homes.The housing shortage is being driven by an expected 150,000 new
residents this year, he said. But the Houston housing shortage actually started
in 2009. That year, Welbes said, there was demand for about 31,500 homes, while
there were just 23,000 built, resulting in a shortage of about 8,800 homes. It
has been that way every year since."There is not enough labor to build all
the homes and apartments needed," he said. "There's a labor shortage in the
construction industry."He also said that not as many Houstonians lost their
homes in the sub-prime lending crisis as elsewhere."It never really got
above 1,000 per month," he said. "There is no foreclosure inventory hanging over
the industry."As a result, he said the Houston housing supply is the
lowest it has been since 2003, especially in more-affordable single-family
homes."There is less than a month's supply for anything priced under
$300,000," he said.Apartment builders are doing better, Welbes
said.There was a glut of apartments before 2005,
but many of those units were filled by Katrina refugees from New
Orleans. Today, apartment supply and demand is basically in
equilibrium.

"It tells me that the apartment builders have not
overbuilt," Welbes said."So is there a housing bubble in Houston?" Welbes
asked rhetorically. "No. I see a good housing run for the next three
years."He said most of those single-family homes are expected
to be built on the west side of I-45, continuing a trend of the past few
years.