Don’t

In under a month the cost of money will rise again. Yeah, just weeks after that last increase. It will be the 5th time in a single year, and come at a miserable moment for realtors. B20 wrecked the spring market. Now the BoC will nail the autumn.

The call’s being made by the economists at Scotiabank. Pay attention. These guys have been wicked accurate. They forecast more interest increases by the Bank of Canada on September 5th, December 6th, then twice again in the first half of next year. Thus, in 12 months the bank prime will be 4.7%, five-year mortgages about 4.5% or higher, and the stress test sit at 6.34%. That’s exactly three times the qualifying rate for a fixed-rate home loan just two years earlier.

Since there’s an irrefutable correlation between rates and house prices, this additional increase will reduce available credit, ensure people qualify to borrow less, and reduce real estate values. In other words, it will take courage, stupidity, or both to buy a house in a major Canadian market before next summer. Of course, if you don’t mind paying too much, go ahead.

Why is this happening?

My Porsche-driving, Trophy wife-possessing, suspender-snapping fancy portfolio manager colleague Ryan gave you one big the reason on the weekend. Inflation. It’s back. This changes everything. Trump is the Inflation President. US rates will be steaming higher. Our guys will follow. Just like they have over 90% of the time in the past.

The normalization of rates is, in fact, a slam dunk given the latest news. Despite the brewing trade war, our exports surged to a record level in June. We shipped $37 billion worth of stuff to the US that month and imported goods valued at $33 billion. Exports surged. The Trump steel tariff did minimal damage. The numbers blew past economists’ estimates.

As you know, the latest GDP stats in both Canada and the States have been fat. Job creation has been robust (the next report’s on Friday). Nineteen of 20 industries that Stats Canada monitors are expanding. Canada is feeding off the giddy growth to the south that was fueled by a massive corporate tax cut, the peeling back of regulations and a protectionist president bent on erecting walls while goosing industry and consumption. The US is growing at more than 4%, and chows through most of what we sell.

Chart by Financial Post

No wonder Bay Street has gained almost 11% in the past 12 months and it sitting at an all-time high. (But it’s still under-valued.) If oil follows the path many expect – adding 50% to current values over the coming year – there’s a lot more to come. Despite Trump’s trade war, his thumping of NAFTA and disdain for Mr.Socks, it’s inconceivable there won’t be some kind of bilateral agreement with America. When it comes, markets will push higher.

So expansion means inflation which begets higher rates. If houses cost a sane amount, this would be okay. But they don’t. So it sucks. The escalation in money costs which economists now envision will further reduce credit and depress house values. The impact of this will be especially evident in BC, where the provincial government has launched a tax blitzkrieg against real estate. The collateral damage could be epic.

So if you want cheaper houses, wait a few months. If you’ve been thinking about selling, do it now. Inventory’s still relatively low in many areas, which has prevented prices from diving. That will soon change.

If you need shelter, can afford it and don’t care about a paper loss that could last a long time, call your Mom. But if your goal is making money, lowering risk, containing volatility and avoiding debt, don’t. She’ll get over it.

Saudi state television reported that the Education Ministry was coming up with an “urgent plan” to move thousands of Saudi scholarship students out of Canadian schools to take classes in other countries. The Saudi state airline, Saudia, said in a statement on its official Twitter account that it would suspend all flights to Toronto starting next Monday, Aug. 13.

Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates have publicly backed Saudi Arabia in the dispute.

Canadian Foreign Minister Chrystia Freeland said in a statement that Canada was “deeply concerned that Saudi Arabia has expelled Canada’s ambassador in response to Canadian statements in defence of human rights activists detained in the kingdom.”

I surely have been speaking about inflation for quite a while to no avail. The biggest fallout will be not from the crash of housing, that already has been used for more than necessary to prop an artificial economy, it will be from the non-retirement predicament that most (95%) old stocks/farts will be facing and from lack of suitable self-supporting jobs for the young (90 % of them).

So if you want cheaper houses, wait a few months.

Now that was funny.

But the pretending that the good old times/normal life will be back (i.e ability to pay house, find normal job, raise kids, retire, travel the world) is what is really funny.

In BC they started breaking ground on a LNG plant in Kitimat. Billions will be spent and tremendous amount of jobs will be created. This will cause a boom, and housing shortage.
Is this a game changer or not for real estate???

With the “guarantee of higher rates” is this a rare opportunity to just “back-up the truck” on Preferreds to maybe 30-40% of a portfolio holding? Seems like a sure and safe bet for capital gains and distribution gains here.

If the fluctuation of interest rates was the only determining factor in regards to the cost of real-estate, than yes this might be the case. In places like Toronto and Vancouver, there are more direct forces at work which have caused prices to escalate such as foreign money and restrictive zoning practices. The rise of interest rates won’t be the main factor in any potential real-estate correction in these two cities, especially if wages increase and are able to absorb the increased cost of borrowing. Unless other forces come into play, it’s quite possible that real estate prices in these cities will actually increase.
With rates rising, that would be a first. Don’t hold your breath. – Garth

“#2 Itemus on 08.06.18 at 4:33 pm
Curious, when does the hiking of rates actually start to impact the money printing. The piper will be paid eventually and it will be massive.”

Higher rates = more money printing, as simple math tells us that more interest is will be owing. Otherwise there must be defaults. Inflation, like deflation, is self-reinforcing. Its the low rate environment that actually keeps the money printing to a minimum as there’s simply no need to print as much money to pay the interest on loans that already exist in the economy without inducing systemic defaults.

Having said that, I just don’t see the sort of strength that’s being talked about here. Nor has the TSX, only up 3% YTD. With the tsunami of falling house prices and consumers being restrained in their spending because of such, as well as similar unfolding south of the border, where the rate hikes would come from is a mystery to me. 4% GDP growth sounds a lot more like rigged statistics or Trump puffery than a legitimate measure of what’s been happening in the economy.

The LNG plant, although large and beneficial to the BC economy, will not be such a big project that it can transform the BC economy. Slight upward benefits at best. It’ll be a good thing but will have close to zero impact on Vancouver house prices. Most of the permanent jobs will be at the plant.

If the fluctuation of interest rates was the only determining factor in regards to the cost of real-estate, than yes this might be the case. In places like Toronto and Vancouver, there are more direct forces at work which have caused prices to escalate such as foreign money and restrictive zoning practices…

You are delusional. That is the official excuse as stated by crooked politicians.

If that was the case (foreign money) there would have been no use for CHMC and its ultra-subprime mortgages and the record debt and the BoC idiotic policies.

High house prices or their crash will not help anyone or change anything anymore. This dead horse has been beaten for quite some time.

There are much better value for the money places to buy real estate in the world, sorry about hurting your feeling of uniqueness and sophistication, but you can’t have a crappy old condo at a sh..ty place in Scarborough selling for twice the price of a castle in France. Or crack shack in Mississauga or Vaughan selling for 5 times that price.

We are literally hitting the wall at 100 miles per hour at this very moment, adding delusional foreign policies to disastrous economic policies.

Now where did I say that? – Garth

That was my impression/implied by line of thought and expression/trying to calm down the masses before the inevitable collapse.

YAY! Rent control shud be abolished because we need to have desirable communities. Welfare recipients, disabled moochers and homeless bums have no place in a growing city like Toronto.

As Canadians we shud respect one another, but we shouldn’t take any form of threat against our communities like TCHC housing, welfare shelters and drug injection sites. These social eyesores lower property values.

I. AM .SERIOUS. Doug Ford should remove every welfare recipient from Toronto. If you can’t afford a 5% rent increase then maybe you shud work harder, find a JOB or leave Ontario and live in the Arctic.

THE BEST WELFARE is a JOB. Welfare isn’t for mooching off my tax dollars. If you’re on welfare pls leave Toronto. Every welfare recipient that I see on OW or ODSP are poorly dressed, their teeth are crooked, they have terrible odor and they are like a stain on our great city.

Widely acknowledged wages inflation in US (not in Canada though), tightening monetary policies the only way to fight China.

It (10 years treasuries yield) will pass 5 % (and your mortgage with the stress test 8. 5%) sooner than you think.

What if I tell you that in this cycle once inflation is recognized and velocity of money increases in US 10 years treasuries will hit 7-8 % and you mortgage with the stress test 12 %? Imagine what this will bring to this housing market.

I find it very hypocritical that the people in your comment section who sound very conservative……who mostly in past…screamed at the TV…..when governments increased the deficit….are okay with Trump’s out of control spending at a time when tax cuts are extreme!

Maybe Trump does have the “voodoo spell ” on his tribal people.
Garth even a 2 by 4…..across the back of their heads would have no effect…..they are just “hard headed “…and where I came from……means just “stupid ”

Of course Trump and his Saudi friends have their gold toilets all lined up in one large room…in Saudi Arabia……where they can grin and follow each others business full time after their childish “tough guys” …..swords swaying foolish dance. Men with toys.

So will the USA’s $21 trillion in debt (and growing rapidly) ever actually….do anything? By that I mean, impact anything, ever, in our lifetimes? Or is it just going to continue going up towards $100 trillion or even $1 quadrillion and everyone will either shrug or avert their gaze, year after year, decade after decade? The inflation helps but only if they slow the rate at the which they are adding to the debt pile, but they are doing the opposite and accelerating it.

I bank at two different banks and two different credit unions. Have not had a hold put on a cheque in 25 years. Have more than enough in untouched LOCs and bank account balances to cover a bad cheque. In the last 2 months I have had several cheques put on hold and when I phoned the banks just apologized and released them. So I went in personally to deposit another at the teller. As the transaction transpired she asked “your cheques are not normally put on hold?” At which I responded “no”. The teller made an expression of just a moment and called over a supervisor and manually adjusted my account. About a week later at another bank I went to deposit another cheque at at the automated teller. It announced to me that as the amount was greater than $5000 it would be holding the cheque for one week and asked if I wanted to continue depositing. I really find it funny that all my banking institutions have clamped down all at once.

My theory, there is a storm brewing….the banks have given out LOCs and HELOCs left right and centre. Everyone is bracing for something and they are filtering every credit related transaction. It’s like they are scared of who has gotten through the cracks.

My mother once got all weird because I bought a truck and she didn’t like the color. Why she would care what color my truck is was never really clear to me. I think she wanted to help pick it out. She likes shopping.

Anyway my theory is that people are spectacularly bad at giving advice, even or maybe especially to their own children. I think this is because you just can’t help trying to influence them in your own favor. Even if you try hard not to, you can’t stop. It’s just part of human nature. Good advice comes from trusted experienced people who have no vested interest in the outcome.

It’s a harsh reality but you can’t trust your sibling’s advice because of possible jealousy or sibling rivalry, you can’t trust your parent’s advice because they can’t stop trying to control you no matter how old you get, and you can’t trust your friends’ advice because they will generally try to reinforce their own decisions. For example, have you ever noticed that a person who wants a divorce thinks everyone should get a divorce? How’s that saying go, “if all you have is a hammer everything looks like a nail”.

Ultimately you have to live with your decisions so you may as well make them. Whenever somebody starts giving you advice, you should treat it with skepticism. And that’s the best advice I can give.

I can’t get rid of the feeling that the world is due for recession and that trump will make it much, much worse. I also have the nagging feeling that he will start an unnecessary war to draw attention from the (financial) crimes he has committed.

The damage is already done to those who bought at or near the peak.
Their lives will be miserable.
The opportunity cost of not being in the stock markets will set them back for a lifetime.
Life can be cruel and reality is stark.
Succumbing to the pressure to buy a bigger home because they “need more space” where they shove chichkas and other junk will be the death of you.
You did not need to commit suicide.
You do not have to be someone’s beast of burden.

I keep thinking about what my econ prof kept repeating in macro 101: When the Fed increases interest rates, the economy will contract. It’s weird this time because we started from such a low rate, but eventually increased costs of borrowing will be felt by companies. It’s going to be interesting.

A few months ago, to a bank I have dealt with for 40 years (BMO), I made an internet transfer (from another big-5 bank) of $10,000.00 to pay off a BMO credit card. The transaction went through no problem, however I noticed the ‘funds available’ on this card was not updated.

I phoned and it was explained to me that because of the amount they would hold my ‘funds available’ for 5 business days.

I asked why, if the other bank I sent the funds from had no problem with it going out, why did BMO? After all the funds were coming into BMO, not out. If anything, the other bank would have held it if they thought there was a problem.

They agreed to update the ‘funds available’ immediately with no further explanation given.

@28 Jan Truman
Hi Jan, I have noticed a change. Work in the film industry on the money side. Credit is tightening some. Shows not being green lit or having to jump through more hoops to qualify. It is not a wave…but I am being cold called for contacts. Also did a transaction of above 50k. The client called asking where’s the money. We had it ready and cleared in the account. The bank held on to it for for a couple of days to “officially clear”. Strange days indeed.

Anyway my theory is that people are spectacularly bad at giving advice, even or maybe especially to their own children. I think this is because you just can’t help trying to influence them in your own favor. Even if you try hard not to, you can’t stop. It’s just part of human nature. Good advice comes from trusted experienced people who have no vested interest in the outcome.

——————————————

I’ve come to the same conclusion. There’s also a saying that advice is just nostalgia. I was thinking of selling my rental condo last year and I let my dad talk me out of it. Why? He hasn’t been paying attention to the market like I was, but I still hadn’t learned the lesson that age isn’t always wisdom. Also, he probably liked the idea that his son owned a condo in the big city. It’s on the market now and I didn’t even tell him.

It’s a hard lesson to learn that parents don’t know or maybe even don’t want what’s best for their kids.

You’re still in shell-shock after four months so I thought I’d help you get your bearings.

This is assuming you don’t somehow patch things up with your ex:

-Jettison the ex & duplex.
-Move in with mom.
-Get the down-payment back if you can.
-Don’t lawyer-up if it’s not worth it.
-Hopefully get mom to help with the childcare.
-Go back to the bank: You need the money and don’t want to start at the bottom again.
-Build up your emergency savings then your investing portfolio.
-Forget about owning a place.
-Rent.
-Don’t date losers.

—

The Belinda the good witch segue-way:

I have a Wizard of Oz joke about Trudeau but I’ve been saving it for if he really p!sses me off.

Lol at inflations back. It never left. For most people shelter is the biggest outlay and homes – rent or purchase – are up dramatically the last decade. Just filled up at 1.55. Laughed at my buddies that bought 60k boats on never never loans 10 years ago at 5%…replacement on those boats is 95k. A fully loaded diesel truck is 110k. A six pack of beer is 14 bucks cold.

Not sure how much an onion has gone up but the big ticket items have gone up substantially and really how
many onions can one guy eat?

So what’s the impact on those whose mortgages are coming up for renewal this year? I recall earlier postings that the numbers were ‘yuge’. Mercy. It’s going to be a wake up call when payments are reset after coasting on ‘race to the bottom’ rates for the last few years. And what about this IFRS 9 stuff and the impact it will have on those same folks?
The Jaguar thinks it may be an opportune time to exit all this chaos, check back in every once in awhile from a distance where the big worry each day is what to write about and ensure sand is not tracked back into the cabana. And of course maintain a strategic equalibrium.

You are absolutely right – nothing is selling any longer here in Kelowna despite beautiful summer with lots of visitors in town thanks to the many disincentive taxes imposed by our myopic NDP government who are convinced that Kelowna should be treated exactly like Vancouver?!?!?

#45 Mattl on 08.06.18 at 7:12 pm
Lol at inflations back. It never left. For most people shelter is the biggest outlay and homes – rent or purchase – are up dramatically the last decade. Just filled up at 1.55. Laughed at my buddies that bought 60k boats on never never loans 10 years ago at 5%…replacement on those boats is 95k. A fully loaded diesel truck is 110k. A six pack of beer is 14 bucks cold.

Not sure how much an onion has gone up but the big ticket items have gone up substantially and really how
many onions can one guy eat?

————————————————

Cars – normal cars driven by regular people, not 100k trucks – have barely budged in price over the past decade. The new Honda Civic i bought in 2007 isn’t much less than a new Honda Civic today. Electronics and computers have dropped in price. Smartphone have risen, obviously, but they replace some of the electronics people used to buy (portable CD players, for example), so the net added expense is minimal.

@#38 Confused
“They agreed to update the ‘funds available’ immediately with no further explanation given.”
@#39 Shelly
“The bank held on to it for for a couple of days to “officially clear”. Strange days indeed.”
++++++

Nothing strange or confusing about it.
They’re holding your money in “limbo” while they use it, interest free.
Years ago.
A friend of mine won $1 million on a scratch and win. He collected the cheque from lotto BC, went to the bank and deposited it. They held it frozen for 3 days.
He was p!!!ed.
Pulled all his money and business accounts out.
Gave each of his kids $100k and told them, “Thats it! You get nothing else!”
One kid was a computer programmer. He’s worth millions now.
The other two invested in real estate( early 1990’s) . They’re also millionaires many times over.
The Dad?
Squandered it all on trips, fast cars, etc. Died of cancer at 65. One month after retiring. Almost broke.

@#53 Sounds like war.
“Add the fact the Saudis are pulling their students out of Canada sounds like an act of war against Canada.”
+++++
Please. A little less drama.
Saudi Arabia cant even kick ass in their own back yard if that backward, civil war wracked, 19th century neighbor, Yemen is any indication.
Years of “war” (If one considers the inept laziness of the Saudi Army and Air Force as a “military force”) with Yemen has resulted in a bloody stalemate with the Saudi’s trying to hire proxy fighters to actually get something done all while bombing hospitals and docks to try and starve, bleed and crush the Yemeni’s into surrendering….
The Brits barely held the Yemeni ports during their 100 years of rule but they never controlled the countryside.
Saudi Arabia might need all those recalled university students to bolster its ranks of the spineless officer corps with some fresh bravado.
As one of my cousins said during the second Gulf War when he was a paid contractor missile specialist (ie mercenary?” in the Royal Saudi Army.
“When the Iraqis started bombing NONE of the Saudis showed up until the next day…..when they knew it was safe.”

If Saudi Arabia “invades” we only need to
unleash the Vancouver Pride Parade flotilla upon them.
They’d run screaming back to the desert…….

Several friends have pulled their Langley, Vancouver houses off of the market.

The market died in BC. Price reductions on everything.

An insider told me Kelowna is 20% down in price due to a violent down turn in the past month.

These outer areas always get hit the hardest.”

Wow, 20% in one month in Kelowna eh? Seems completely reasonable. Thanks for the local intel, wife and I have some free cash going to grab a place downtown for 640 (what used to be 800). Or maybe even offer 40% off previous, if its down 20 in 4 weeks will get ahead of the plunge with a stink offer. So I’m thinking 480 should get me a home in k town that sold for 800 a few months ago right bud?

What are you buying around here pal? 20 in a month means buy soon. Hook a bro up with some real estate advice from your insider

#28,#38 and #39,… I have good credit and solid income as well as investments. I applied for a MasterCard at BMO a few months ago, and was turned down. I was flabbergasted. I went to another non charter institution and got a MasterCard immediately. The charters are pulling in the credit reigns very very tight now. Think maybe they sense something ??

Canada is a pimple on America’s ass….like it or not. With America is xpanding exponentially our export benefits by osmosis…..Trudeau is like minor rash….a nothing-sandwich forgotten in an overlarge lunch box. All we’re seeing from the Junior Butts camp is noise and fluff for local consumption.

Too bad Obama can’t rush over the border and save us from loving the benefits that fall out like scraps out of Trump’s mouth at a banquet……and make Trudeau look like such a sad squirrel.

@#133 baggagetown carly
“I speak of data and facts. Check the source I provided, and many others on the topic of modern gender imbalance in education and everyday intelligence.”
+++++

Ahhh yes.
You equate “education” with “intelligence”.
When I equate “lemmings” that have obediently learned to regurgitate whatever their Professor spews forth as “gospel” as sad , misguided greaterfools with huge debts they may never pay off.
Some of the stupidest people I have ever had the misfortune to meet were highly educated.
Zero common sense , zero people skills, but very good at memorizing and spewing forth facts and figures.
That’s intelligence?
A parrot can speak English but it’s really just mimicking human intelligence.
One of the most interesting and highly intelligent (and very rich due to his hard work) people I ever met had a Grade 8 education. Ask him anything about his business and he had 3 or 4 reasons for doing what he did. His next door neighbour before he died was the heiress to the WalMart fortune. He was worth half a billion when he died. Self made, uneducated, brilliant, business man. The Canadian govt repeatedly called upon him to help them defend Canada’s Soft Wood Lumber Trade agreement for decades because he could rip any US trade lawyer to shreds with his laser wit and encyclopedic memory.
As for fewer men statistically attending university…..
Possibly because fewer men are in the population?
49% men in the world vs 51 % women?
Who really cares.
But dont moan when a plumber hands you a bill for $500 to fix your plugged toilet and says, “Hairbrushes dont flush so well.”

#61
My credit union is changing credit cards. Notified me to use my points on the old one as they will expire when they change cards. I applied for the new card they are bringing in. I got declined too. I too was flabbergasted! Called my banker and he was flabbergasted. He called the credit card to find out why. I have so much money in that institution and unused credit. The card that they are dumping had a very high limit (unused) they said I was declined as I have too much open available credit??? I have a stellar credit history!!! Paid off my mortgage on my west van property years ago. If I got declined I can’t imagine who they are accepting. I think the whole canceling the old card and changing card company for this credit union is a way to sort through everybody and reassess who should and shouldn’t have credit. Smoke In Mirrors.

#28 Jan Truman
No Jan …it’s not just you………the banks are starting to pay attention!
They also don’t like cheques…..get ready for paperless.
They are really starting to look at transactions over $5,000.
Makes them nervous or desperate (not sure)!

Several friends have pulled their Langley, Vancouver houses off of the market.

The market died in BC. Price reductions on everything.

An insider told me Kelowna is 20% down in price due to a violent down turn in the past month.

These outer areas always get hit the hardest.”

Wow, 20% in one month in Kelowna eh? Seems completely reasonable. Thanks for the local intel, wife and I have some free cash going to grab a place downtown for 640 (what used to be 800). Or maybe even offer 40% off previous, if its down 20 in 4 weeks will get ahead of the plunge with a stink offer. So I’m thinking 480 should get me a home in k town that sold for 800 a few months ago right bud?

What are you buying around here pal? 20 in a month means buy soon. Hook a bro up with some real estate advice from your insider
……………………..
Don’t get too excited just yet Matt. Things in K may have slowed down but i still see sold signs here and there. It is still early in the game if prices are really gonna drop significantly. End of September numbers will give a much better indication of what is happening.

Likely some brokerage house dreamt up that one. Back when the markets were honest even rookie investors could time the markets to a tee. Before around 1993 it was easy the stock market foretold what the economies would do about 6 to 8 months in advance. None of these economic rules apply anymore.

Picking a fight with KSA to spin Trudeau into a champ of women’s rights is laughable considering he just admitting to sexually groping an innocent woman at a drunken rock dump. C’mon….seriously? Liberals need to sweep their own porch…..KSA is not going to make Canadians forget about Juniors fumbles bumbles and mumbles. Try again Jerry.

Is there a silver lining here? Will it force Trudeau to crap open the Canadian oil imports to include crude from Alberta instead of forcing Saudi oil flooding Canadian refineries with its politically correct oil….in single hull tankers btw…..deep into the St Lawrence seaway? No tanker ban there…..wouldn’t need one if we had Energy East pipeline. God I hope the KSA stops sending oil to Canada …. it would be like Trudeaus 9-11

Jaysus. – Garth, Belinda is not destroyed. She’s 32. She’s made some mistakes which she owns. She will recover.

Belinda- firstly hold that little one tight every day and stay strong. Next – go back to your secure job and suck it up for ten years. Everyone has a to sell their soul a little and when you have a dependent you don’t get to choose anymore. Work for the corporation (that’s how our world works right now) but look for something that will feed you and your little one in 10 years. Time flies fast.

You aren’t alone in making mistakes, don’t beat yourself up. But listen to Garth when he says find a better guy. Or better yet, just be alone. Sometimes that can be the most secure thing a woman chooses. You’re obviously a smart lady. Listen to your heart.

I think the parents are well meaning, but unfortunately most people put themselves first and they can’t help it and they don’t even know they are doing it. So you may very well get good advice from your parents, but only if the situation in no way affects them. You won’t even be able to talk to them about your vacation plans if they have designs on seeing the grand kids that week, but any weeks they have other plans but the grand kids are available just won’t work. That’s how people are. And I don’t know about you, but my parents never had much design on seeing me once I left the house until I had kids. I’ve lived in places they never saw, short commute. Maybe that just speaks to how glad they were to be rid of me. I still dutifully visited them, but probably not near half as often as they expected. In your 20’s, you go do things with your friends on the weekend. That’s just how it is.

I like the quote “advice is just nostalgia”. Can I use it? With my friends at least?

You would think that since I don’t think my parents, siblings, or friends in general are capable of giving me or anyone else unbiased advice, I wouldn’t have any friends. Not so. I have a group of friends. But to a one of us we don’t give each other advice unless asked directly. One friend has a Harley and I have a V-Star. We never compare them. Sometimes someone will say “what do you think about TCPL?” and we’ll all say if we hold any and what we think the prospects for the company are but we’ll never tell the other to “buy” or “sell”. We talk more about general prospects for things like the energy industry and government over-reach and electric cars than specifics. Although I can say for sure we all think Tesla is a fraud. BMW has already beaten them and so has Nissan, others to follow. I digress.

The begging of the end for the machine.
Put Monday, Aug 6th on the calendar.

Alex Jones the InfoEntetainer was band by all MS social media. The mid terms are coming up and they concluded that he had influance in Trumps win.. Lets take him out. Hahaha. Herdonomic should be taught at the university. No one gets it.
Not one single university prof ever door knocked to get sales to feed the family.

What got Trump elected was MSM attacking him daily, while pushing its cool to let random men in your daugters and wives restrooms.

Not to mention the globalist teet suckers like Obama telling the rust belt. White men with no obedience certificate are no longer relevant or needed. Here is some oxycodian. Fk off.

MSM keeps attacking a man who reads the herd brilliantly.

The Herd is fearfull of illegal un-vettet immigration, they are frightend of ISIS. Who by the way Justin Trudeau welcomes with open arms.
He’s toast next year. Can’t walk it back. Finished. Everyone knows what Danforth really was all about. It’s my take from twitter post.

The more MSM attacks normal people and logic, the more they lose control of the herd.

The not so normal people are a small group but have a shit load of power for now. It’s slipping from them fast. They are getting completely unhinged with every passing day Trump Tweets and it shows. Not good branding on thier part. Candace Owens eating breakfast is all I’m saying.

Just discovered a big challenge to twitter. Gab sucks.

I killed SmokingMan on twitter. You can find me here now.. Minds.com for my drunken rants.

Account SmokingMan1
Just getting it going..
And the 1 is actually an acronym for won.

A little too fast and loose today Garth with the Canadian GDP enthusiasm courtesy of the US.

Trump’s attitude is that if you are going to suckle on the hind teat of the US (as you purport we are doing) you will now have to now pay for the privilege.

A 25% Auto Tariff would do the trick…and then their’s the milk. Suffice to say, many tempting Cdn. targets for Trump’s cross hairs.

– – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – –

Interesting Comments today about a SUDDEN squeeze on Credit by the Big 5 banks. Predictable. Lucrative, locked-in, secured, interest bearing mortgage originations cash flow down, that money has to be made up somehow.

HELOC demand loan people not paying their way will soon be in trouble. That will be the next Big 5 banks predictable step in maintaining/increasing cash flow. Also predictable will be Consumer Credit tightening (credit cards) where banks will demand larger payments to retire that debt. Both are big numbers to the Big 5 banks and very tempting targets.

– – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – –

Despite what you say Garth, it will be a very bumpy 4th Qtr this year economically resulting in large RE price declines.

I agree with you Garth on RE prices dropping but not with CDN economy buoyancy at the same time.

The 2 go hand in hand. You cannot have one without the other.

If I am wrong, well then, history is indeed a poor indicator on the subject of Cdn. recession hand in hand with falling Cdn. RE prices.

Add: How did the greatest generation give birth to a generation of liberal morons….who in turn spit out a generation of insecure glop. Does anyone even wonder how hmm…errr….ahhhh…..feminism grope grope grope but no personal responsibility taken guys like Trudeau get elected when it’s so easy for guys like George Soros to buy an election in Canada. Our grandfather’s didn’t want to fight the Nazis….they had to and Canada was strong and free ….but guys like Trudeau have it in mind to tear down our country because as they say “we don’t deserve it”. That sounds a lot like what Hitler said and got our grandfather’s to sign up and fight for freedom . In the video link it’s easy to see why freedom is so important….to protect us from moroons love me Gerry Butts and Justin Trudeau.

Trump said Trudeau’s backstabbing was “going to cost Canada a lot of money”…..and obviously he meant it. Trump us pissed with Justin….not Canada….we’re just collateral damage as Justin is holding on to Obama’s promise to return in the fall . Now EU and Mexico are throwing Justin under the bus. We’d better wake up. Our leader is not on our side. Tides Foundation money from George Soros is pouring in……pouring in. They want to use Canada as a lab rat ….. Is that what you want?

Sell now in BC: Good luck.
Nothing is selling.
Several friends have pulled their Langley, Vancouver houses off of the market.
The market died in BC. Price reductions on everything.
An insider told me Kelowna is 20% down in price due to a violent down turn in the past month.
These outer areas always get hit the hardest.

Mattl: Wow, 20% in one month in Kelowna eh?

20% reduction in one month would be the hardest, most violent crash, anywhere, anytime.

there’s a disconnect between the official way real estate is assessed and the stock market. Facebook lost $100 billion in a day. BC Assessment provides an assessment every year on July 1. So if the drop in Kelowna is anything like 20% a month, the cumulative drop by July 1 2019, will be catastrophic. Notices will go out January 2020. In Ontario, MPAC provides property value assessments. It did one for 2016 and says that’s going to last until 2020. So in 2020, MPAC will do a new assessment but I guess it won’t provide a statement until 2021.

The banks have their own assessment so you don’t have to wait for their statement.

yvrmc: I have good credit and solid income as well as investments. I applied for a MasterCard at BMO a few months ago, and was turned down. I was flabbergasted. I went to another non charter institution and got a MasterCard immediately. The charters are pulling in the credit reigns very very tight now. Think maybe they sense something?

I heard they are withdrawing credit. It’s like they can predict the market peak – it’s the day before they withdraw credit.

Well Garth what happened to all those kids commenting on this blog over the last 24 months about the Cdn govt NEVER allowing interest rates to rise as Trudeau knows how indebted they all are and he will protect them. A hard lesson coming in reality for many of them. Global interest rates are nothing to do with the drama teacher.

Anyway we have put our southern Italian holiday home on home swap sites for a trip to Halifax and Montreal next August. We have an offer for a 4 bed in Chester, apparently a suburb of Halifax. You are the Halifax expert, is this a good and convenient pace for a week’s holiday please? Should I grab the swap?

Recently a huge rally hoped to get Trudeau’s attention to the fact the Yazidi women and children we’re not being welcomed into Canada……why specifically the Yazidi women who were raped enslaved and sold. You’d think they’d be top of the list….right?

Well, it turns out the Yazidi are an embarrassment to Obama. He armed and trained the extremist Al Nusra Front who over ran the Yazidi and sold the women and children into sex slavery. Obama was golfing in HI…..kind of like when Trudeau takes personal days when he wants to avoid the media.

“Debt = no freedom a life of slavery and above all high taxation. If you have not got a sufficient asset base and you need to debt finance then you are going to be working full time which means you are paying the highest tax rates in the world.

Most people can’t even see this. They are just borrowing and working to make the payments.

What I am saying is you don’t need to do that. You can live very well in North America on almost nothing and you can invest most of your working income. Do that for 10 years and the income off your investments will be enough to live off. And remember 60k per year off investment income is the same as 80k per year working after taxes because income earned by not working is taxed less than income from employment.”
——————————————————————-

Chester isnt a “suburb of Halifax’ and dont refer to it as such when you are there. The locals wouldnt appreciate it.
Its a beautiful little village about a 20 minute drive south down the coast from Halifax on the way to Lunenburg. Many Americans bought up the prime water front property years ago.
See if you can book during “Chester Race Week” the annual sailing regatta.
Yes is a nice place to stay for a week.
Pray for sunny weather, not fog.

…” the Australian reported Asic also plans to use undercover shoppers to test Australia’s mortgage brokers and adherence to lending standards in the $1.7tn home loan system….A related survey found mortgages originating with brokers were statistically significantly more likely to misrepresent their information than mortgages originated by banks… Asic has found broker loans were on average larger and had higher loan-to-valuation ratios, which require smaller deposits, than loans provided through banks.

======
The events of October 7, 2008, are not merely about how three Qantas pilots found themselves fighting to save a passenger plane from itself. It serves as a cautionary tale as society accelerates towards a world of automation and artificial intelligence.

IMHO, it’s tough to get people to think about finances and tax rates, when a hockey game is on, or they are worrying about whether they’ll get caught sneaking a case of beer across a provincial border.

So, they work for someone, making earned income, taxed as per Ace’s note, and wonder how to pay for Netflix or the latest iPhone.

Fortunately, there is growing interest in the “FIRE” (financial independence, retire early) movement, which, even if kids don’t buy into it, they hopefully learn something from it, whether it is modest spending, or saving and compound interest, or something else which will help them when they get older.

#76 Smoking Man on 08.07.18 at 1:13 am
The begging of the end for the machine.
Put Monday, Aug 6th on the calendar.
Alex Jones the InfoEntetainer was band by all MS social media. The mid terms are coming up and they concluded that he had influance in Trumps win.. Lets take him out. Hahaha. Herdonomic should be taught at the university. No one gets it.
Not one single university prof ever door knocked to get sales to feed the family.
What got Trump elected was MSM attacking him daily, while pushing its cool to let random men in your daugters and wives restrooms.
Not to mention the globalist teet suckers like Obama telling the rust belt. White men with no obedience certificate are no longer relevant or needed. Here is some oxycodian. Fk off.
MSM keeps attacking a man who reads the herd brilliantly.
The Herd is fearfull of illegal un-vettet immigration, they are frightend of ISIS. Who by the way Justin Trudeau welcomes with open arms.
He’s toast next year. Can’t walk it back. Finished. Everyone knows what Danforth really was all about. It’s my take from twitter post.
The more MSM attacks normal people and logic, the more they lose control of the herd.
The not so normal people are a small group but have a shit load of power for now. It’s slipping from them fast. They are getting completely unhinged with every passing day Trump Tweets and it shows. Not good branding on thier part. Candace Owens eating breakfast is all I’m saying.
Just discovered a big challenge to twitter. Gab sucks.
I killed SmokingMan on twitter. You can find me here now.. Minds.com for my drunken rants.
Account SmokingMan1
Just getting it going..
And the 1 is actually an acronym for won.

Dr. Smoking Man
Ph.D. Herdonomics.
No one calls politics like me…
____________________________________________
Returned from the cottage late last night and read this bag of wind from the old man supporting Alex Jones.

You meant this Alex Jones with his preferment of Sandy Hook Elementary School shooting conspiracy theories claiming that it was a hoax, his aggressive opposition to gun control, his accusation the US government of being involved in the Oklahoma City bombing, the September 11 attacks, and the filming of fake Moon landings to hide NASA’s secret technology?
He has claimed that corporate big businesses have colluded to create a New World Order via manufactured financial crises.
His opposition of society to normalize people with autism. His claim that vaccines are dangerous and his constant motivation to claim that parent who vaccinate their children are putting them in danger.
The same guy that claimed Hurricane Ira was engineered by weather weapons. The same weapons that he claims can manipulated tornadoes and drop them where they want?
The same guy that claimed that Democrats and communists were scheming impending white genocide attacks?
The same guy that lost his three children and wife? His wife claims Jones is not a mentally stable person. Kelly Jones his ex-wife divorced him March of 2015. In 2017, Kelly Jones pursued sole or joint custody of their children due to Alex’s out of normal conduct.
Really? You are rooting for Alex Jones? He is not a “Info entertainer” he is a sick person and the master of hate speech. Your a certified loonie tune Smoking Man. Get professional help fast old man.

I surely have been speaking about inflation for quite a while to no avail. The biggest fallout will be not from the crash of housing, that already has been used for more than necessary to prop an artificial economy, it will be from the non-retirement predicament that most (95%) old stocks/farts will be facing and from lack of suitable self-supporting jobs for the young (90 % of them).

So if you want cheaper houses, wait a few months.

Now that was funny.

But the pretending that the good old times/normal life will be back (i.e ability to pay house, find normal job, raise kids, retire, travel the world) is what is really funny.

Absolutely mind-blowing ignorance.

Now where did I say that? – Garth

Remind us again why the average Canadians are better off with globalism than with the “good old times”?

Fortunately, there is growing interest in the “FIRE” (financial independence, retire early) movement, which, even if kids don’t buy into it, they hopefully learn something from it, whether it is modest spending, or saving and compound interest, or something else which will help them when they get older.
_________

Indeed – the www. has been a great place read the success stories of the Mill Rev + Mr. MM types for inspiration. I wish the internet (and TFSA’s) were around when I was a kid.

My kids are getting a great financial education at home, Ms. IH and I might as well be sharing the same brain when it comes to money so they get a 100% unified message on just how important living well within your means is, and also saving and investing for the future.

Add: so Freeland had a brain fark and did a Trump-finger tweet thinking she could b-slap KSA just like the big boys. She laid on a personal insult to the KSA royal family and long standing laws against errant behavior that included berating Sharia Law…..all this on behalf of a malcontent named Badawi.

One offensive blogger in KSA is Freelands hero and she just flamed thousands of Canadian jobs and billions in tax revenue because he has a sister that Justin suddenly fast tracked into citizenship to cover for Freeland. Wow.. this makes no sense. The guy in jail isn’t a even feminist. That is shown nowhere.

He isn’t a Canadian. He’s just a guy that took to bitching about everything knowing the laws full well. This stinks. Free land shot from the hip thinking she’d make Canada her personal fiefdom . She says the CBC agrees that CNadian values are at stake. But all we have is the evidence of a malcontent. And now……Canada has to suffer? No way this isn’t a case of a fat finger booze up booty call.

No you guys aren’t alone in thinking this. As you borrow more money (million plus) to buy a house or condo or whatever, it gets progressively harder to service, even though interest rates remain the same (imagine if it goes up. Buying a house usually requires after tax money here. And servicing debts greater than 1 million now require quite a bit of gross income, because our income tax rates are so high. So for that much nicer home, you are slaving sooooo much more. Not to mention higher property taxes, etc.

Much easier to watch your money compound tax free and if you are really house horny buy just enough to live in (don’t be a landlord.) my parents neighbors just built a laneway home for 300k or so. Horrible investment as the materials used to build the home will depreciate, even though it adds “value” to the selling price (and is a big reason why real estate values have appreciated as much as they have… build a laneway or do extensive renos, and bam your 1.8m dollar house can immediately sell for 2.1m). The only hope is if rents keep up, but with all the rules the NDP are putting in place why would anyone want to be a landlord. Better plow that 300k into something else.

Don’t get confused between what the press writes, and what reality is.

The Quantas flight was an issue, hopefully resolved. And, yes, “Sully” got caught by the automatic Phugoid calculations when landing on the Hudson, so even the technology there when working correctly got in the way a bit.

Look overall at what the technology brings to the table vs. what it might be like without the technology. Look at the “flight incidents” reports, and it is enlightening, if one takes the attitude of learning about computers and machines and human nature.

A long time ago now, my employment brought me into contact with hardware and software for analyzing flight data recorders for a brief period. (colleagues were into it – they requested my skills for resolving an issue) and since then I’ve had an interest in the problems and problem solving as found in the aviation industry.

My take on it? Let computers run things – sure, not 100.000% perfect, but better than (Say) a distracted driver or one needing sleep, or one that can’t remember the “stop at a red light” rule or….

Well Garth what happened to all those kids commenting on this blog over the last 24 months about the Cdn govt NEVER allowing interest rates to rise as Trudeau knows how indebted they all are and he will protect them. A hard lesson coming in reality for many of them. Global interest rates are nothing to do with the drama teacher.

———————————

The fear – or the hope, for some – was not that Trudeau can do anything about rising rates, but more that he’d craft some other taxpayer-funded bailout for indebted homeowners (well, Butts would craft it; Trudeau would sit in the corner playing Candy Crush).

#74 AR on 08.07.18 at 12:28 am
Jaysus. – Garth, Belinda is not destroyed. She’s 32. She’s made some mistakes which she owns. She will recover.

Belinda- firstly hold that little one tight every day and stay strong. Next – go back to your secure job and suck it up for ten years. Everyone has a to sell their soul a little and when you have a dependent you don’t get to choose anymore. Work for the corporation (that’s how our world works right now) but look for something that will feed you and your little one in 10 years. Time flies fast.

You aren’t alone in making mistakes, don’t beat yourself up. But listen to Garth when he says find a better guy. Or better yet, just be alone. Sometimes that can be the most secure thing a woman chooses. You’re obviously a smart lady. Listen to your heart.
______

Garth is 99.9% going to be correct about B’s financial future.

Piles of debt, no equity to save the day. Ex BF is broke and a financial dunce – good luck with the child support. B moving back home as an adult mother to ensure her offspring does not starve.

Hooking up and having babies with folks who are not committed to parenthood, or the relationship is financial death – end of story.

Yeah, B needs to find a good Man alright…

Problem is, B is now a 32 year old single Mom with sole custody living in her parents’ basement, who doesn’t want to go back to work, but still wants another house…

No 20/30/40 something eligible Male with brains, money and resources is going to be kicking in B’s front door asking for a date. That’s just the way it is, might as well start accepting it.

She may well be most stable and content staying single – but she’ll end her days eating Cat food on whatever is left of CPP/OAS come 2051. Modern society is unkind to single income households.

IMHO, B might as well start shopping for a Man with means, with income and Moral character being the top attributes. Probably going to have to be older, a decade or more even. These guys can own homes and earn well, paid off everything – maybe even a nest egg on the go. The very small group of younger guys with these kinds of resources will be able to choose whatever Women they want as long as they don’t look like jabba the hutt. B should not waste time chasing these – unless she is a 10/10. Even then it would likely be a waste of effort as she’ll be up against hoards of childless younger Women in their absolute prime of life.

IMHO, B has one single chance of financial redemption outside winning the lotto or an act of God – and that is the flawless selection of her next partner. Choose right, and all the problems go away – instantly. Choose like she did last time, the problems she has now stay – and more are added on top.

If she ends up with another kid from yet another Man at 35+, and lives in her parents basement – that’s it. Game Over.

Yes, similar story happened to me. My Dad writes a birthday cheque to me using my every day common name. Let’s say my birth certificate name is ‘Catherine Lee Smith’ my entire life everyone calls me Cathy, so…for the last 40years of my working life, I’ve written and received cheques as CLSmith, or Cathy Smith, the only time I’ve ever been addressed as Catherine was the one time when I displeased them, (hence the nice yearly birthday cheque.)

So when I submit the cheque to [email protected] (Green one) and I can’t say she was nice! She exclaims “ewwwww what’s this say?, I can’t accept this”. Meanwhile, I layout on her counter my Ontario drivers licence, (CLSmith), my Green cards outlining Debit and Credit Card (CathySmith). She stands there and tells me I don’t exist…well yea we have a CatherineSmith Account, but she isn’t you!!! Needless to say I’m floored and very ticked…I demand to escalate, Evening manager steps in “Well do you know anyone working here this evening?” We have banked there since we moved to the GTA in 1984, always pay everything on time, mortgage paid off years ago, took our non growing investment accounts out of there years ago. How would I KNOW anyone in there?

End of story…manager placed my cheque in the pile to be processed and one week later Cathy Smith had her birthday money, kinda tarnished though!

However, the bank telling me I don’t exist, no Cathy Smith is registered with us, really really weird. If Banks are very serious about tightening up, send us a notice to come in and register ALL names and common aliases.
CatherineLeeSmith, CLSmith, CathyLSmith, CathySmith.

#93 Another Deckchair on 08.07.18 at 8:54 am
Fortunately, there is growing interest in the “FIRE” (financial independence, retire early)
_____________________________

For sure, with the internet coming on strong the last few years anyone that can read and is interested can find out and prove for themselves that the “game is rigged” and it aint rigged for you. 2 laws one for US another for “them” George Carlin nailed it years ago.. its a club and you an me aint in it!

Our kids have figured a lot of this out and that why they seem so apathetic with a “why bother” attitude.. its also why they think socialism is the way to go.. interesting times ahead.

#65 Jan Truman on 08.06.18 at 11:08 pm
#61
I applied for the new card they are bringing in. I got declined too. I too was flabbergasted!
——–

There are costs associated with issuing cards. They may have looked at your report and decided that you were unlikely to use the card a lot and/or carry a balance, which is to say, unlikely to make them money.

The Sandcastles report was based on leaked data from real estate professionals regarding 54,000 addresses with 129,000 owners from 181 countries. It examined seven individuals and organisations – three of those who were suspected of money laundering and offshoring their assets in Dubai were sanctioned individuals with links to China. Their networks are thought to have links to North Korea, Iran’s missile programme and the Tehran-backed Lebanese militant group Hezbollah.

The team – five Stanford University students, a fraud investigator and a professor from the University of Hong Kong – is launching a data visualiser that exposes suspicious connections involving employment agencies in the city, responsible for recruiting – and, in some cases, deceiving – thousands of domestic workers every year.

“The point is to illustrate potentially suspicious or concerning relationships that are existing between agencies where probably there should not be any in a marketplace operating in an ethical way,” said Jonah Bolotin, 22, an American software engineer and recent Stanford graduate.

My take on it? Let computers run things – sure, not 100.000% perfect, but better than (Say) a distracted driver or one needing sleep, or one that can’t remember the “stop at a red light” rule or….
_____

Being a car guy most of my life, I remember when EFI was transitioning in place of the good old carburetors. The periodicals were all up in arms about how electronics could not possibly be as reliable as a carb, and that you couldn’t modify EFI, and that doing your own engine work was over.

30+ years later, EFI has been dead reliable. I love it, OBD2 diagnoses problems itself, and the only EFI system repair I’ve ever done was a CPS a couple times. 1 bolt – 15 minutes – 60.00 part. A car can sit for years and still start up great, no plugged idle jets, no sticky floats, no overflowing float bowls dumping raw gas on your intake manifold.

You can now “tune your carb” while sitting in and driving your car via a laptop in real time. Every parameter imaginable can be tweaked. Hot Rods today make 1000+ hp, get double the mileage of an old Big Block, and spew 1/10 of the emissions of an old carbureted race engine (that makes half the power).

I don’t know how fast I’d jump on a pilotless plane, but ECU control of gasoline engines has been the best thing that ever happened to them.

#107
Nope, I use my cards a lot. I do pay them off right away. I have so many air miles to spend before the end of August when the other card expires. Hubby and I are heading to South Africa. I’m not concerned as I have other cards.

This is a sneaky way of the banks transferring risk. They got all these people racked in debt and now they tell them the card is closing down. What happens to the family that has racked it and now is left hanging? I’m sure there is a few out there in a bad state.

“Growing up, I would hear horror stories about the treatment of other domestic helpers from Manang Neneth and Manang Lila,” he said, referring to the two domestic workers who are still with his family.

“In Grade 8 at the Canadian International School of Hong Kong, I won an annual speech competition, in which I urged my fellow peers to empathise with the experience of their domestic helpers, who have sacrificed everything to work abroad and send money back home to their families,” he recalled.

As an adult, Deverall said he hoped to find innovative solutions not only targeting Hong Kong, but also other markets, such as the Middle East where many foreign domestic workers have faced abuse.

===========
Migrant domestic workers and asylum seekers in Hong Kong are being tricked – some through lovers they met online – into delivering or receiving parcels filled with drugs, in the latest tactic used by dealers to recruit local mules.

I have always considered the required time for investing to be 4 decades. It takes 20 years for regular folks to get enough together to start looking interesting. After the third decade is over, it should look like a giant pile of money. The fourth decade takes all the effort expended in the first 30 years, and produces a grand slam home run.

in September
The Telecomm sector is being renamed communication services.

On September 21 (and the 28th for various MSCI Indices), 23 names will move from the S&P 500 Consumer Discretionary sector (16 stocks) and Tech sector (6 stocks) to this new group.

read more @cnbc.com
S&P plans, per the WSJ, to create a new communication services sector in September. Netflix will join it, as will FAAMG members Facebook Inc. (FB) and Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL), the parent of Google. The latter two are in the information technology sector today. As a result, Apple Inc. (AAPL) and Microsoft Corp. (MSFT) will be the only FAAMG stocks still in the tech sector. The Journal says that various other index providers globally, including MSCI, are planning to shift stocks out of their own tech categories.https://www.investopedia.com/news/how-tech-reshuffling-sp-may-shake-stock-market/

#98 Oft deleted much maligned stock picker on 08.07.18 at 9:46 am
Add: so Freeland had a brain fark and did a Trump-finger tweet thinking she could b-slap KSA just like the big boys.
_________________________

Yes, lets get on our high horses and look down our enlightened noses which gleam in the aura of our progressive halos, and then publically admonish other Nations for doing things we do not like – in front of the entire world.

What happens if we do this to some place just like SA and some whacko group of lunatics (like those that we know do exist there), decide to fly a plane into some Canadian urban center, killing thousands of people?

If our Federal politicians want to play Global SJW, by all means – fly your righteous asses out there and get your sanctimonious boots on the ground and actually DO something – I’ll even pay for the tickets (one way).

If our airhead dingbat politicians in Ottawa have a problem with some other countries’ internal affairs – just call up the damn King privately and state your case – rather than literally begging for retaliation by airing it out publically on the world stage via Twitter.

I just can’t take any more of these Liberal idiots. Like we need more government boneheads posting their tripe on Twitter.

Several weeks ago I posted a comment that the US Fed would curtail Quantitative Tightening because I thought since Quantitative Easing (QE) created cheap credit out of thin air then Quantitative Tightening (QT) would do the opposite. Thus I guessed the combination of rising interest rates and QT would make debt expensive faster than wage growth for 90% of the GNP (the middle class and lower) and set up North America for a recession, never mind The Don’s negotiating tactics – Caligula comes to mind.

I admit I interest rates will rise higher than I guessed. Garth et al were righter than me. I have concluded QT will not directly destroy cheap credit but the Fed not be a net buyer in the debt market will remove a cap to interest rates. The US Treasury will sell T-Bills with reduced Fed buying. That means higher T-Bill rates – the old demand and supply stuff. I think this explains the inverted yield curve in the short term so it is a delayed indicator.

I see debt people….
My vision of a person drowning in debt
IoI
““““““““`

Facebook asking U.S. banks for customers’ financial info: report – The …https://www.theglobeandmail.com/…/article-facebook-asking-us-banks-for-customers-fi…
1 day ago – Facebook Inc has asked large U.S. banks to share detailed financial information about their customers, as part of an effort to offer new services

I just can’t take any more of these Liberal idiots. Like we need more government boneheads posting their tripe on Twitter.

I think T2, Wild ‘the financial wiz/star, french villa guy’ Bill, C. Freeland are just typical representatives of an ignorant, financially illiterate, arrogant, clueless, unable to think on their own generation, product of severe brainwashing and unable to face reality and realize their own insignificance.

These things like trying to school SA, US etc are just that, refusal to acknowledge our status of a small country with pretty much zero weight in the international affairs and big politics.

There is much more interesting stuff to happen with the disintegration of NAFTA, pending auto tariffs, rising inflation, we have not seen much yet, the thingy is literally hitting the fan as we speak, can you imagine the french villa guy in 5 years telling you that it is only fair to confiscate your carefully managed fully invested and diversified RRSP?

I am not sure what kind of flies nest into the head of T2 but he is acting like an absolute joke and it is very hard to show any respect for his persona, despite GT’s appeals for showing respect as of his status.

On my part I am trying to restrict the orgasmic pleasure derived from not being any more subject to their idiotic policies and brainwashing and I have to tell you in the beginning it is very hard to do adjust and fight that fulfilling schadenfreude and live again normal life.

Garth, what do you think how will this affect the housing market and our economy over all? Most of the Saudi students were renting (having families here), paying international student fees, had medical insurance? No one talks about Saudi doctors sponsored by Saudi government (also covering for the lack of Canadian doctors) that will also have to leave by the end of the month?

Just a novice but im a wee bit confused.
I think its an inconvenient truth national governments lie to us all the time in particular when it comes to GDP numbers.Garth you say ” The US is growing at more than 4%, and chows through most of what we sell.”

lets face it if you consume food and energy products the real inflation rate in Canada and the Usa is 6-9 percent per annum.Bearing that reality in mind how on earth can our real GDP growth be 4 plus percent.Our current real not nominal GDP is really negative 4-5 percent!!!
Our political hacks and presstitutes fail to factor in the real inflation rate.
Next time someone tells you the gdp growth rate is 4 percent just roll your eyes.Maybe Im missing something but I think not.

“So expansion means inflation which begets higher rates. If houses cost a sane amount, this would be okay. But they don’t. So it sucks. The escalation in money costs which economists now envision will further reduce credit and depress house values.”

Just a novice but im a wee bit confused.
I think its an inconvenient truth national governments lie to us all the time in particular when it comes to GDP numbers.Garth you say ” The US is growing at more than 4%, and chows through most of what we sell.”

lets face it if you consume food and energy products the real inflation rate in Canada and the Usa is 6-9 percent per annum.Bearing that reality in mind how on earth can our real GDP growth be 4 plus percent.Our current real not nominal GDP is really negative 4-5 percent!!!
Our political hacks and presstitutes fail to factor in the real inflation rate.
Next time someone tells you the gdp growth rate is 4 percent just roll your eyes.Maybe Im missing something but I think not.

Recently a huge rally hoped to get Trudeau’s attention to the fact the Yazidi women and children we’re not being welcomed into Canada……why specifically the Yazidi women who were raped enslaved and sold. You’d think they’d be top of the list….right?

Well, it turns out the Yazidi are an embarrassment to Obama. He armed and trained the extremist Al Nusra Front who over ran the Yazidi and sold the women and children into sex slavery. Obama was golfing in HI…..kind of like when Trudeau takes personal days when he wants to avoid the media.
_ _ _
That sounds like drivel straight from the shyster at Infowars.

And so it starts. It seems there are more house fires lately, just like in the 80’s.
A well known construction company in Surrey, BC appears to have suddenly closed up shop. There’s no one there and a staff member of a company one of my kids works at went to the company to collect a cheque for work performed as they haven’t been paid in months.
I wonder how many other companies will be going under.
My daughter has a friend who bought 2 condos at The Butterfly. With only paying 20 percent down and mortgages at possession, can’t see how renting them then in 2022 or 2023 at completion could possibly cover mortgage payments, maintenance fees and property taxes. Oh, but they’re investments! And real estate only goes up.

Re: #38 confused on 08.06.18 at 6:41 pm
#28 Jan Truman,
I agree, something different is happening.
+++++++++++++++++++++
Maybe the banks holding the funds for “clearing” is actually them paying themselves a couple days interest because they have to make up for the dearth in mortgage writing.
Same way, imo, that Roblaws nickel and dimed customers on bread fixing while CRA is suing Galen Weston (Roblaws owner) for evading $405 million in taxes on money he hid in his own bank he set up in Barbados, with he being his only customer.
The nickels add up fast when dealing with millions of customers.
Same with Weston hiding points in the PC Optimum rewards program that many people have had occur too many times over the years. ~100+ times over 3 years time I’ve had my account. That doesn’t even include the cash register charging more than advertised (~100+ times/3 years).
Multiply by the 20+ million PC Optimum card holders and the money not paid out at the time, and might never be paid out if not discovered by the customer, that $405 million can be reached real quick.
Make sure to double-check those accounts ppl, if you can get through their despicable maze that is the PC Optimum website. How they are not fined for that program that makes dirty books by the mob look on the up and up.
How CRA and the gov’t regulators haven’t fined or jailed them is unbelievable. Any other business would be shut down for lack of disclosure!
Just crickets, even with my complaints, nothing. White collar crime.
If you find any discrepancies in your accounts, go to the Competition Bureau and register a complaint: http://www.competitionbureau.gc.ca/eic/site/cb-bc.nsf/eng/02930.html
We need more ppl to complain to get these guys off their duff and do something!

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The views expressed are those of the author, Garth Turner, a Raymond James Financial Advisor, and not necessarily those of Raymond James Ltd. It is provided as a general source of information only and should not be considered to be personal investment advice or a solicitation to buy or sell securities. Investors considering any investment should consult with their Investment Advisor to ensure that it is suitable for the investor's circumstances and risk tolerance before making any investment decision. The information contained in this blog was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, however, we cannot represent that it is accurate or complete. Raymond James Ltd. is a member of the Canadian Investor Protection Fund.