I think most people assumed that once Brandon Knight was gone, Giannis would take on a much more active role offensively. That did not happen on Saturday. Of his five shots, the majority came in some form of transition or late transition offense. In the half court, his touches and attacks were both few and far between. How that’s possible, I’m unsure. But if he’s not getting the ball much, he needs to get to the rim or at least make the attempt, while the team is getting acclimated to its new players.

Very little went well for Milwaukee’s starting center. He had nothing for Rudy Gobert. He couldn’t hit jump shots or finish. He dropped slightly more passes that led to scores, but he was a big net negative on offense and defense.

He was fine, but the organization isn’t hailing him as the point guard of the future because he’s fine. In his third game back, he played 30 minutes and was generally productive. But that vision that’s supposed to make Milwaukee’s offense hum wasn’t all that apparent. It’s going to take time for him to figure out his teammates and how he fits alongside them. Patience seems necessary, especially after games like this one.

It seemed at times that he was the only Milwaukee player who could be relied on to make a shot. Whenever the ball left his hands, I thought it was going in. A few times Middleton had to switch on to Trey Burke on the other end though and Burke did a great job of exposing Middleton’s subpar quickness on that end. Whereas a guy like Luc Mbah a Moute was once able to guard virtually any position, Middleton’s nowhere near as capable of defending quick point guards. To be clear, he isn’t really supposed to be capable of that. But it would help.

Gobert was a big problem for Milwaukee, Henson included. He blocked a variety of Henson’s shots and gave him trouble on both sides of the ball. It’s a bit stunning to look up and see that Ilyasova played 34 minutes in this game and Henson played 20, given how much better a fit he might be to handle either Utah big, but the shooting Ersan provides could have been (could have) valuable on a night without Dudley. I suppose that’s the counter.

Uncharacteristically sloppy with the ball on Saturday night. He had one inbounds pass that a Jazz defender started cutting in front of almost a second before it left his hands. That’s how badly he telegraphed the pass, which he then thew softly, allowing for the interception. That was Mayo’s night.

Jason Kidd
A lot of Zaza and Ersan on a night in which neither was very productive. Milwaukee did little to counter the strength, size and athleticism of Utah’s front court. Kidd did attempt to counter with an extra big lineup that had both Zaza and Henson on the court, but that lineup saw little traction.

Three Things We Saw

Milwaukee is struggling on offense. The ball isn’t moving like it was earlier this season and when it does move, it too often isn’t landing in the hands of someone who can make a jump shot with consistency. The lack of Jared Dudley made things even worse against the Jazz, a team that was committed to playing intrusive, turnover forcing defense. Milwaukee turned the ball over 23 times and while some were unforced, products of a lack of concentration or perhaps fatigue from a road back-to-back, many were caused by good rotations and solid Jazz defense.

Defensively the Bucks had good results, holding Utah to 82 points and sub-40% shooting, but Milwaukee did struggle badly to defend Trey Burke. He penetrated over and over, getting into the paint and either kicking out or attempting shots that either went in or were rebounded by the Jazz. Utah had 13 offensive rebounds and didn’t play as poorly offensively as the numbers would indicate.

Rudy Gobert and Derrick Favors may be the best big man tandem in the Western Conference in three or four years if they keep getting better. Gobert’s length was incredible and Favors has a spectacular combination of strength and athleticism.

If this is the game Ersan can have every night, the Bucks will be a much better team. Took shots that were available, generally did his battling thing for rebounds on both ends and, of course, he took a charge.

t’s fun to see him impact the game without scoring very much. Some of his rebounds came late and he put up some numbers of the garbage variety, but he did a good job of driving and kicking or dropping short passes to teammates when opportunities weren’t there for him to finish.

His debut was short and sweet. He broke out for two dunks early on, thanks largely to sloppy play from his former mates. MCW was quick to drive and dish and keep the ball moving. Basically this was an advanced practice for him and a great way to get his feet wet as a Buck.

Such a weird player. Henson is one of the most unique players I’ve seen in all my years watching the Bucks. He’s the only guy I can remember that can put up 21 points, nine rebounds and three blocks and still seem like his impact was fairly muted. Some of the most vivid memories I have from this game are Henson getting pushed out of the post by Henry Sims and fumbling a pass out of bounds. He still struggles so badly with physicality.

But at the same time, have the Bucks had a guy of this size with this sort of touch around the basket in the past 20 years? Probably not. He made Nerlens Noel look foolish with a pump fake of a right hook, followed by a quick spin and his patented left handed baby hook. He was heading to the basket all the time and finishing on one pass after the next from his teammates.

Ultimately it was an incredibly productive game, where he was able to take advantage of a sorry situation of opposing bigs.

He hit a couple of pull-up jumpers that displayed something of an ability to make a jump shot, which seems potentially encouraging, especially if he can step out a bit further and show 3-point range. He’s just 1-7 on 3FG since arriving in Milwaukee.

His turnovers are a bit concerning, just for the way they happen. They seem to come from him appearing almost overwhelmed. He had three more on Wednesday.

Never before have we seen such box-score stuffing from Jared Dudley. We discussed on our podcast how a bench role has a certain fit for Dudley, as he can move easily between positions depending on matchups in a way a guy like Ersan Ilyasova can’t. Against the Sixers, his guile and knowledge of what they would be doing and what he could do against them was evident.

Two Things We Saw

The Sixers are truly a disaster. This was a 29 point game at half. At various points Thomas Robinson was clearly the best Sixer on the court and he joined the team from the airport about an hour before the game started. Total mess.

Good teams beat bad teams handily. That’s what the Bucks did in what was mostly a very business-like way. Milwaukee let the Sixers creep back into it a bit in the fourth quarter, which was disappointing to see, but quickly squashed any dreams of this thing ever getting under single digits.

]]>http://www.bucksketball.com/2015/02/big-win-bad-team-bucks-104-sixers-88/feed/10The Milwaukee Bucks will win 43 games this seasonhttp://www.bucksketball.com/2015/02/the-milwaukee-bucks-will-win-43-games-this-season/
http://www.bucksketball.com/2015/02/the-milwaukee-bucks-will-win-43-games-this-season/#commentsWed, 25 Feb 2015 14:29:02 +0000http://www.bucksketball.com/?p=15267Last Wednesday people were wondering whether or not the Milwaukee Bucks could win a playoff series this year. That was a question I was asked on the radio. That was a question my friends were starting to press me on with more frequency. Was it realistic to start getting hopes up about second round playoff basketball in Milwaukee? Expectations were beginning to build.

While they typically have a propensity for #HOTTAKES, they are probably right. The expectations you may have had about the rest of this season two weeks ago are no longer relevant. Your dreams no longer matter, but don’t get too down. A franchise that thinks long term is a good thing. And it doesn’t mean this season is totally lost either. The season ceiling dropping from possibly five playoff wins to maybe two playoff wins isn’t that big of a deal.

We’ve gone pretty deep on how last week’s trade made sense for the longer term future of the Milwaukee Bucks, but we didn’t look much into how it would impact this season, aside from assuming the Bucks were probably going to be a little bit worse. Through three games, we’ve seen a team that looks a fairly significant amount worse on offense, though the Bucks we’ve seen haven’t featured the centerpiece of the trade, MCW.

He’s expected to return Wednesday, but even with his addition, it’s fair to assume the Bucks will still be at least somewhat worse than they were over their incredible first 53 games. Worse doesn’t mean much though. A worse team playing a friendly schedule can outperform a better team playing a difficult schedule.

These slightly worse Bucks? They have a pretty friendly remaining schedule.

Look at all of the games against those I’ve dubbed members of the Bad East! The Bad East is Miami, Brooklyn, Detroit, Charlotte, Indiana, Orlando, Philly, New York and Boston. Against these teams this season, Milwaukee is 16-5. Of those five losses, two came to Charlotte and one came to the Pistons. Neither of those teams remain on Milwaukee’s schedule. Orlando and Indiana are the only Bad East teams that play the Bucks again and have taken a game this year from Milwaukee. It feels safe to assume the Bucks can take 75% of these games. Mark them down for eight wins right there.

Against the West this season, the Bucks are somehow 11-10, which is incredible, given that the Bucks have not had a winning record against the Western Conference since … since a long time ago. I was looking this up on ESPN.com and their conference records only go back to 2002-03, so just know it’s been a while and assume maybe it was that glorious year of 2001-02. The Bad West games left are against the Lakers, Jazz, Nuggets and Pelicans twice. Two wins seems fair. We’re up to 10, and we’re probably still awaiting a winning season against the West.

Against likely good playoff teams this season (playoff teams that are not Miami or Brooklyn), Milwaukee is 7-18, good for a 28% winning percentage. Let’s drop them down to 25% for the sake of ease and a penalty for the Knight trade and assume they’ll win two of those nine games against playoff teams the rest of the way. That’s 12 wins.

12 wins would bring Milwaukee to a 43-39 finish, which feels very Milwaukee Bucks, but is actually a record the Milwaukee Bucks have never had. Getting to 43 wins largely without Jabari Parker, heavily on the back of Giannis Antetokounmpo is probably a successful season in terms of results, but feels a bit incomplete in terms of development. We miss Jabari.

As far as the second round of the playoffs goes? Given Milwaukee’s record against playoff teams, recent performances against the Hawks and Bulls and my own personal suspicions about how effectively a Michael Carter-Williams led offense can operate, I’d say Milwaukeeans are probably free to start scheduling vacations as soon as the first round of the playoffs are over. Maybe the Bucks could have gotten a little bit better as the season went on and started proving themselves as a viable threat against playoff teams. Milwaukee had been playing its best basketball of the season over the past two months and Knight had even turned into a net positive from a plus/minus perspective lately.

But the Bucks sacrificed the possible small incremental growths of this season in favor of the hope of potential huge, obvious growth down the road. It’s the sort of move many have pleaded for, but it’s the sort of move that makes this season mean a little bit less. Enjoy the record over .500 and keep thinking about tomorrow.

]]>http://www.bucksketball.com/2015/02/the-milwaukee-bucks-will-win-43-games-this-season/feed/16Words alone can’t do it justice: Bulls 87 – Bucks 71http://www.bucksketball.com/2015/02/words-alone-cant-do-it-justice-bulls-87-bucks-71/
http://www.bucksketball.com/2015/02/words-alone-cant-do-it-justice-bulls-87-bucks-71/#commentsTue, 24 Feb 2015 13:43:47 +0000http://www.bucksketball.com/?p=15248Sometimes Milwaukee Bucks games are beautiful occasions. All season long, the team has moved the ball very well and found itself with a plethora of open shot opportunities. Sometimes the open shots come with such frequency that the Bucks pass up good shots to get great shots.

Sometimes the Bucks lay an egg.

Sometimes the Bucks are so ineffective and easily handled that we feel the need to recap the game in a completely different manner. This doesn’t happen often, but it happened last night. The Bucks were held to their fewest points (71) and worst shooting percentage (33.7%) by the division rival Chicago Bulls.

Milwaukee struggled all over the court offensively. Sometimes it’s hard to describe a night’s game with just words, so we thought we’d just pull in a variety of images and largely let them do the talking (with a bit of narration too).

Still, we wait for Michael Carter-Williams. Milwaukee’s new point guard was once again unavailable, still bothered by the toe injury that’s kept him out of action since February 3. He did tell reporters after the game that he would be playing in Milwaukee’s next game, at home against the Sixers on Wednesday. In the three games since Brandon Knight was traded, Milwaukee’s offense has regularly looked out of sorts and in need of more direction. Jerryd Bayless wasn’t horrible against the Bulls, with eight points, eight rebounds and five assists, but it’s clear he’s no Knight.

MCW isn’t either, but he should provide more stability for an offense that seems to lack a conductor right now.

The Bucks bigs struggled badly against Chicago’s impressive front line. Between the three of them, Pau Gasol, Nikola Mirotic and Joakim Noah grabbed 40 rebounds. The entire Milwaukee active roster grabbed 41. John Henson finished with one rebound in 16 minutes. Zaza Pachuila had one in six minutes. Miles Plumlee managed two in his 14 minutes.

Tony Snell! He racked up 18 first half points before deciding to take it easy on Milwaukee and score just two in the second half. Half of his shots were uncontested and he took full advantaged, making 4-6 3FGs en route to his third 20 point game in his past five games.

Even when things seemed to go right, they quickly went wrong. Case in point, this Jerryd Bayless dunk. (Photo by Gary Dineen/NBAE via Getty Images)

This was supposed to be a wonderful moment. Bayless laid the ball off to Ersan Ilyasova near the top of the key and then made a quick and decisive cut towards the hoop. Ilyasova bounced a pass two steps in front of Bayless with great precision and the point guard had a wide open lane awaiting his approach and dunk.

He was not prepared for Jimmy Butler, trailing close behind him the whole time, to put forth the effort he put forth. Butler stayed a stride behind Bayless and rejected his shot at he went up for the dunk. Bayless gathered the miss and kicked out to an open Jared Dudley for three, but Dudley’s shot went halfway down before rimming out.

Even new hero Giannis Antetokounmpo could not rescue Milwaukee in Chicago. (Photo by Gary Dineen/NBAE via Getty Images)

Giannis made each of his first two jump shots, which had to be a sign of great things to come.

It was not a sign of great things to come. After making his first two shots, Giannis made just one more basket the rest of the night. Most surprisingly, he was 0-for in the paint and around the rim. Chicago’s length can be a challenge and defensively they seemed enthusiastic about challenging any of his attempts into the paint or around the rim. He attempted to beat the third quarter buzzer, first with a floater and then a few attempts near the hoop off offensive rebounds, but Chicago’s bigs wouldn’t allow him space to breath, let alone a clean look at the rim.

Giannis is now 13-38 post-Brandon Knight. He must anxiously be awaiting his new playmaker.

]]>http://www.bucksketball.com/2015/02/words-alone-cant-do-it-justice-bulls-87-bucks-71/feed/7Khris Middleton is about to get paidhttp://www.bucksketball.com/2015/02/khris-middleton-is-about-to-get-paid/
http://www.bucksketball.com/2015/02/khris-middleton-is-about-to-get-paid/#commentsMon, 23 Feb 2015 13:40:39 +0000http://www.bucksketball.com/?p=15202When Khris Middleton makes a shot in the Bradley Center, the opening lines of The O’Jay’s “For The Love Of Money” play over the loudspeakers.

“Money, money, money, mon-ey. Monnnnn-ey.”

The music is flattering, but the offer sheets he’ll see this summer will be even better.

Part of the purpose of the Milwaukee Bucks big trade deadline move was to create financial flexibility and freedom, the sort of flexibility and freedom that could allow the Bucks to retain Khris Middleton, whose rise over the past two seasons has not gone unnoticed by the rest of the league. Rather than face the decision about whether or not to spend $12-$16 million on Brandon Knight, Milwaukee’s biggest question this offseason will center around how much money they can afford to commit to Middleton, a player who seems to play both an important and obvious role.

Coming into this season, there appeared to be an opportunity for Middleton to show off an expanded game. He began the season as Milwaukee’s opening night shooting guard and saw his number called with frequency against the Hornets in Charlotte. It seemed like he’d no longer just be the catch and shoot guy he was last season. But his first month under Jason Kidd wasn’t so great, the lowest point being a DNP-CD in Milwaukee’s sixth game.

After a tough start, he’s gotten better with each passing month.

Month

MIN

PTS

REB

AST

STL

FG%

3P%

October

31.9

14.5

5.0

1.5

0.0

38.7

28.6

November

21.8

7.9

3.0

1.4

1.1

39.6

36.7

December

24.8

10.5

4.1

1.4

1.5

47.3

43.8

January

30.7

12.9

4.6

2.4

2.1

53.8

52.3

February

34.1

16.8

6.3

3.1

2.0

49.5

32.1

What changed? There didn’t seem to be any “Aha!” moment. After the first month of the season, his shots shifted slightly more towards catch and shoot or catch and get to the basket, the two ideal shots for a guy like him. But basically, he’s started to make more shots and seems to increased his activity defensively. Middleton got more comfortable the more he was on the court and able to adjust to his role under a new coach.

“More minutes, playing with more energy,” he said just before the All-Star break about what’s changed over time this season. “Trying to do the little things on defense and offense to help get us going. And also just playing within the offense and just letting the game come to me. With this team we have so many options and so many guys can put the ball in the basket, we’re just trying to get the best shot for us.”

The one noticeably different thing about his game this season is an apparent increased willingness to post up. Middleton’s 22-39 out of the post this season, and while he’s posted up on only about 8% of his possessions, he’s averaging better than one point per possession out of the post, good enough to place him within the league’s top 20 among players who average at least 10 minutes per game and have at least 10 post-ups.

“I have smaller guys guarding me in the shooting guard position and if my shot wasn’t falling, I just try to put them in a bind by going in the post and see what they would do,” Middleton said. “Every time I get in the post I’m not looking to shoot, most of the time I’m looking for the help, because they know I have a smaller player on me. So I’m looking for the pass out and trying to take advantage of it.”

Everything Middleton’s doing is working. Through February 18, per 82games.com, Middleton’s a net +16 for the Bucks. When he’s on the court, offensively the Bucks are 6.5 points better and defensively they’re 9.4 points better per 100 possessions. He’s been the anti-Brandon Knight, a guy who seemed to be contributing a lot, but couldn’t quite get his plus/minus numbers to match what the eye test was telling us about his production.

If this is the player Khris Middleton is, there’s going to be a very healthy market for his skills this offseason when he’ll be a restricted free agent. At minimum, he’s a developing player who has spent two seasons as one of the league’s 15 or so best 3-point shooters. Since joining the Bucks, he’s made 42% of his 3-point shots.

When browsing the list of the NBA’s top 3-point shooters percentage wise, we start to get an idea about what Middleton’s salary floor will probably look like based on two classes of players that populate the league’s best shooters. There are the “role player” 3-point shooters, guys who generally are responsible for making threes and that’s about it. Kyle Korver: $6 million annually. J.J. Redick: $6.5 million. Jose Calderon: $7 million. Marcus Thornton: $7.5 million. And then there are the guys tasked with being a centerpiece of their team’s offense (or at least players teams bet on at some point). Klay Thompson: $18 million. Kyrie Irving: $18 million. Eric Gordon: $15 million.

Middleton’s deal is likely going to exist somewhere between the purely responsible for threes players and the max money types, unless something drastic happens over the course of the next 27 games.

While teams love three and D players of all ages, what could make Middleton more intriguing is his youth, especially if he starts to post bigger and better numbers without Brandon Knight as Milwaukee’s first option offensively. At 23-years-old, with only three years of experience under his belt, imaginations may run wild if he’s able to average around 20 points per game in the second half when teams start thinking about what amount makes sense when putting together an offer sheet for Middleton.

But at his first press conference after the Knight trade, Jason Kidd didn’t seem to think Milwaukee’s offense would be changing all that much.

“We don’t rely on one person,” Kidd said when asked how the offense may change without Knight to rely on. “Nothing changes. That’s how we have been built from day one. Nothing changes from the trade. When you rely on one person it is easy to guard. When you have five guys and they don’t know who is going to take the shot, it makes the game a lot of fun. I look at it the same way. B-Knight was getting shots because of his teammates.”

Middleton may not become much of an offensive initiator, but even if the ball just happens to end up in his hands a few more times he’s a likely choice to become Milwaukee’s scoring leader over the rest of the season. If that takes him from a 12-15 point scorer up to a 16-19 point scorer, he’s probably going to get an offer sheet around $10 million.

From there, it’ll be up to Milwaukee to determine just how crucial a part of the Milwaukee Bucks success Middleton is and whether or not the budget of the championship team they want to build includes that sort payday for the guy they’re calling Money Middleton.

There were moments where he appeared to be pressing a bit, but Jason Kidd wasn’t worried about it. This is a different experience for Giannis, having a prominent teammate get traded, along with readjusting after a very busy All-Star break. He’s got a big opportunity in front of him now that Milwaukee’s flush with pass first point guards. His development, already the most important story of the season, will be even more interesting in the second half now.

It’s kind of cool that, on a night where maybe struggled a bit, Giannis still put up 10 points and nine rebounds.

His touch was as sharp as ever and when he can combine that with four blocked shots in just 18 minutes, it’s impossible to rate his night as anything but a success.

He was within 3.5 feet of a rebound 11 times, but grabbed only four. Kidd did praise his work to keep Denver off the offensive glass in the second half, but it always feels like he needs to get a little more aggressive on the defensive glass this season.

Starting in the place of Brandon Knight while Michael Carter-Williams is out, Bayless played roughly the same game he’s been playing all year. He moved the ball when it was necessary and shot the ball when he had good looks or driving lanes. Kidd said he didn’t expect much to change about Milwaukee’s offensive philosophy just because Knight is gone and Bayles was a good example of that. Everything was the same, just a little different.

With Ersan Ilyasova battling illness and Johnny O’Bryant generally ineffective, Dudley saw a big minutes bump. But, much like Bayless, he just went about his business as if nothing had changed over the break. When the Bucks were scuffling a bit early, he connected on a couple of long jump shots that helped right the ship, as he’s done so many times before this season.

He led the team in scoring, but didn’t seem to be a matter of him stepping up, rather the ball just seemed to end up in his hands while he was open as much as usual and there wasn’t anyone else taking a large number of shots. And when the ball ends up in Middleton’s hands and he’s open, typically something good is going to happen.

He’s going to be interesting to watch. Will his role change without Knight? Will he be asked to initiate offense at all?

He was relied upon heavily in the first half and didn’t do a great job of collecting defensive rebounds or preventing Denver from getting offensive ones. He and Henson did a better job in the second half. Very standard Zaza game otherwise.

Jason Kidd was quick to praise Ennis after the game for his poise and ability to jump right into minutes, given his inexperience. His 18 minutes were a career high, after all. But he didn’t make too much of an impact and all three of his turnovers were easily avoidable, as the first came on a lazy pass and the second and third were the result of defenders simply picking his dribble from him. Things could have gone worse though.

It seemed after he came in at first that he was going to try and fill Knight’s role as a shoot first, pass second type guy, but he got back to his typical ways soon enough. Twice more he found John Henson, his favorite target for easy baskets.

Jason Kidd
While Plumlee didn’t make his debut, Kidd noted that he’s not afraid to play anyone, so I’d expect to see some minutes for him sooner rather than later. Kidd isn’t going to get a guy in just to get a guy in, but he’s been quick to react to any potential matchups he may like. It will be interesting to see if the Bucks can continue to improve defensively with their new pieces, specifically MCW and Ennis, who seem to potentially offer more than Knight on that end.

Two Things We Saw

The Nuggets did not have Ty Lawson and were led in scoring by Wilson Chandler, who shot 12 (!) threes and scored 19 points. The Nuggets do not appear to be a very good or very interesting basketball team.

Milwaukee held Denver to 35.7% shooting.

]]>http://www.bucksketball.com/2015/02/slightly-different-time-largely-similar-result-bucks-89-nuggets-81/feed/6Tyler Ennis doesn’t seem all that menacing, though he does seem like a capable point guardhttp://www.bucksketball.com/2015/02/tyler-ennis-doesnt-seem-all-that-menacing-though-he-does-seem-like-a-capable-point-guard/
http://www.bucksketball.com/2015/02/tyler-ennis-doesnt-seem-all-that-menacing-though-he-does-seem-like-a-capable-point-guard/#commentsFri, 20 Feb 2015 17:20:04 +0000http://www.bucksketball.com/?p=15192My original title for this post was: Ennis the Menace arrives in Milwaukee. OHHHH did I think I was clever. I was so proud of myself for a minute. Ennis the Menace. That’s like Dennis the Menace. And this guy is a point guard, so maybe he gets steals and causes trouble for other teams. I was sure no one else had thought of it.

Ennis will take over the spot most recently occupied by Jorge Gutierrez, who presumably will not be re-signed to a contract for the rest of the season, now that his second 10-day contract has expired and the Bucks have acquired a point guard who does some of the things he does, but also has a guaranteed contract and is six years younger.

What are those things that Ennis does? Primarily take care of and move the ball. In nine D-League games, he averaged 18.4 points, 4.3 rebounds and 5.3 assists per game. He hasn’t had much time in the NBA yet, having played only 58 minutes scattered across eight games, but at Syracuse, Ennis was a low risk player who looked for others before himself. From Draft Express:

Like the 76ers rookie in his final year at Syracuse, Ennis’s 14.2 possessions used per-game and .889 points per possession overall both rank among the lowest marks of any guard in this draft. However, Ennis’s 11.5% turnover rate is among the lowest in this group and is just over half the 22.1% turnover rate Carter-Williams posted before turning pro. His profile on the whole highlights his impressive capacity to play low-mistake basketball and improvable offensive game.

“Of all the guys on our team, he’s probably the one guy who can go out there, and he’ll call a play, he sees what’s going on out there and he’ll get guys into a certain play that he thinks might work.”

To be honest, he doesn’t sound all that menacing. So we’ll need a better nickname at some point.

It sounds like the Bucks acquired someone in the vein of one of the players they traded away, Kendall Marshall. Marshall thrived at moving the ball and looked for his teammates as much as possible before calling his own number. While Ennis doesn’t have the size Marshall did, he does have youth on his side and the lure of potential. He’s guaranteed through 2017-18 so long as the Bucks keep picking up his options. They’ll assess him the rest of this season and decide next October if they have a potential interest in him past next season.

He’s a low cost throw in on this deal and, at the very least, gives Milwaukee another interesting player that could be packaged as part of a larger deal at some point this summer or beyond that. Acquiring players with first round pedigree has some value, as other teams value that original draft spot to a certain degree, regardless of whether or not a player has produced on the court. And when a player has played as little as Ennis, his draft position likely carries a bit more weight.

With Carter-Williams out for now, Ennis will probably get his first opportunity for extended minutes quickly in Milwaukee. We’ll probably learn a great deal more about Ennis a week from now than most Suns fans did in the past three and a half months.

]]>http://www.bucksketball.com/2015/02/tyler-ennis-doesnt-seem-all-that-menacing-though-he-does-seem-like-a-capable-point-guard/feed/1A preliminary explanation of Miles Plumlee (not the dunk contest one)http://www.bucksketball.com/2015/02/a-preliminary-explanation-of-miles-plumlee-not-the-dunk-contest-one/
http://www.bucksketball.com/2015/02/a-preliminary-explanation-of-miles-plumlee-not-the-dunk-contest-one/#commentsFri, 20 Feb 2015 15:49:19 +0000http://www.bucksketball.com/?p=15181There are currently two Plumlee Brothers in the NBA.

The Milwaukee Bucks acquired Miles Plumlee on Thursday. He played for the Phoenix Suns previously, not the Brooklyn Nets. He was the guy getting jumped over in the dunk contest, not the one doing the jumping.

Drafted 26th overall in 2012, Plumlee spent his first season with the Indiana Pacers before being traded to the Suns. He averaged 8.1 points and 7.8 rebounds last season in 24.6 minutes per game, but has seen his numbers dip to 4.3 points and 5.1 rebounds in 18.6 minutes per game this season. He was the Suns’ starting center this season, but he’s alternated between the starting lineup and bench this season. He’s under contract for one more season after this one, after which Milwaukee would hold his rights as a restricted free agent.

On the court, he’s kind of a classic roll man big. His offensive rebound percentage this season (10.5) would rank second on the Bucks behind Zaza Pachuila and his defensive rebound percentage (19.8) would rank third on the Bucks, behind Giannis Antetokounmpo and Pachulia. He was an even better rebounder last year and could again flourish as a rebounder in some of Milwaukee’s small lineups.

He’s certainly most comfortable around the rim. Zaza typically does his finest work from the elbow, catching and making a decision about whether to pass or shoot, but Plumlee is more of a traditional catch and dunk guy along the lines of Henson. He has 33 dunks this season, compared to Pachuila’s five and Henson’s 30.

The rage in Milwaukee right now is wingspan, but Plumlee doesn’t quite intimate the way Henson does. Plumlee’s wingpan is 7-foot, as opposed to Henson’s 7-foot-4, but he had a max vertical of 40.5 inches at the 2012 combine while Henson’s was just 30 inches. So what Plumlee seems to lack in wingspan he may make up for in bounce, evidenced by ALL OF THESE DUNKS:

So that looks kind of fun.

Basically, he’s a fairly athletic big who rebounds the ball at an average to above average rate and finishes well around the rim. He looks like he plays with a bit more physicality than John Henson and he doesn’t seem to be a Zaza Pachulia type playmaker.

Where does he fit in with the Bucks? He’ll probably occasionally syphon minutes from the existing centers, but given how Jason Kidd has handled his bigs this season, it’s hard to envision him sliding down and playing the four too much. On our recent podcast with Rob Mahoney we discussed this and Rob mentioned that, given the lack of floor spacing Michael Carter-Williams brings to the table, he’d be surprised if Milwaukee didn’t try and keep a shooter at the power forward position most of the time. That doesn’t seem to line up minutes for any of the three centers together.

So Plumlee will definitely be an insurance policy and he could even occasionally crack into the rotation. Kidd has demonstrated time and again that he’s willing to go very deep into his rotation, especially if he doesn’t like what’s happening on the court. Plumlee could get one of those five or six minute runs the first time he puts on a Bucks uniform and then not play again for a week. Milwaukee’s rotations are tough to figure, but have generally been productive.

Time will tell how big of a place there is in those rotations for Miles Plumlee.

]]>http://www.bucksketball.com/2015/02/a-preliminary-explanation-of-miles-plumlee-not-the-dunk-contest-one/feed/6Trading Brandon Knight is more about tomorrow than todayhttp://www.bucksketball.com/2015/02/trading-brandon-knight-is-more-about-tomorrow-than-today/
http://www.bucksketball.com/2015/02/trading-brandon-knight-is-more-about-tomorrow-than-today/#commentsFri, 20 Feb 2015 15:01:56 +0000http://www.bucksketball.com/?p=15171The Milwaukee Bucks were going to have to make an important decision this offseason.

Way more important than me having to decide whether or not to put a space in offseason. I could just go back and delete this paragraph and no one would be the wiser. The Bucks can’t just go back and erase contracts. Well … it’s been a crazy week. Typically they can’t. Exceptions to every rule, right?

But if the Bucks signed Brandon Knight to a four year deal worth more than $50 million this coming offseason, they would kind of be committing to an offense led byKnight for probably the next four years, at least the next two or three years.

Evidence does more than suggest that was an unpalatable idea to the Milwaukee Bucks.

It’s hard to argue that Brandon Knight wasn’t good this season. He’s shooting 44/41/88. He leads the Bucks in points per game (17.8), assists per game (5.4), steals per game (1.6), minutes per game (32.5) and shots per game (14.3). Had he been selected for the All-Star game, it doesn’t seem like people would have been too upset. For all intents and purposes, he was Milwaukee’s best player during this season, a season of redemption and revival. He’s a hard worker to the point that O.J. Mayo spent part of his in Florida working out with him to get in better shape. His work ethic and general high character also set a great example in a fairly young locker room. He’s a natural leader.

Yet he struggled as a playmaker. He leads the Bucks in assists per game, but also in turnovers per game at 3.2. Among players who average 5.4 assists per game or less, Knight is second in the league in turnovers per game. He often drives into the paint and appears without much of a plan other than, assuming he’ll probably find a way to get a shot up. He doesn’t appear to play selfishly in order to obtain stats, but rather because he seems to feel he’s the best scorer on the team and is almost unstoppable. Sometimes that thought would be correct. More often, it would be incorrect.

I don’t know if Michael Carter-Williams is the point guard of the future for the franchise that’s now traded away three point guards named Brandon. He has some similarities to a young Jason Kidd, in that he passes the ball a lot, occasionally gets triple-doubles and often misses jump shots. No question some of those are intriguing qualities.

While he too turns the ball over a great deal (4.5 per game), he averaged nearly eight assists per game for the league’s very worst offensive team. Sure they play fast, but only a handful of guys can make shots, so that helps to balance out potential speed stat inflation. He’s grabbing 6.6 rebounds per game, which could partly be attributed to his size. He’s 6-foot-6, which seems like a good thing for a point guard. It’s not unreasonable to suspect he may do more work in the post, ala Kendall Marshall, now that he’s arrived in Milwaukee. His size should be an asset in Milwaukee’s aggressive defensive schemes as well.

But he has some rather obvious flaws. He’s shooting less than 40% from the field this season and has made just 26% of his 333 3-point attempts as a pro. Hell, he’s made only 64% of his free throws this season. Shooting is a big problem for him. Flaws and strengths exist in every basketball player and are often pronounced in younger players. He’s a typical young basketball player.

What is absolutely certain about Carter-Williams it that he has two years left after this season and they add up to less than $6 million, which means he’ll have two more years to show the Bucks whether or not he is the point guard of the future and it’ll cost the Bucks probably less than half what Knight would have cost them next season alone.

Brandon Knight wasn’t able to definitely prove he was the right point guard for a future championship team in his season and a half in Milwaukee. Everyone agrees he made some strides this season, but it’s very clear he didn’t make enough strides that the Bucks felt comfortable committing to him long term. So rather than deal with his free agency by matching any offer he got and then trying to make the best of it or letting him leave while getting nothing in return or trying to work out some sort of sign and trade deal, the Bucks essentially hit the reset button with another young point guard now.

Looking at this directly as a trade of Knight for Carter-Williams seems short-sighted (Also, literally inaccurate, as the Bucks also got Tyler Ennis and Miles Plumlee. But we’ll dive into them separately, as this is the main course). In the interim the point guard swap changes some things about this season, but the Bucks really traded a long term commitment for long term flexibility. Knight was the girl the Bucks were happy dating, but not the girl they wanted to spend the rest of their life with. And the bonus for Milwaukee is that Carter-Williams gives the Bucks the ability to be flexible going forward while not taking much of a step back this season. He’s capable of providing probably at least 75% of the on court value Knight provided and if things go well, maybe he can provide more than that.

This trade best primes the Bucks to build for the future while staying probably somewhat close to as competitive as they have been all season.

Personally, I don’t think this season matters all that much, but some people may feel like making the playoffs and staying competitive is valuable in the development of Giannis Antetokounmpo, which should be the ultimate focus this season. Not only does Giannis gets to keep playing games that matter, but he gets a point guard that will probably move the ball a bit more and maybe even create better shots for him. If the Bucks deemed continued short term success important, Carter-Williams makes a lot more sense than a draft pick, while carrying similar value.

So the salary cap doomsday clock is set back, as this season continues down the same playoff path.

A potential win-win scenario has played out and now the Bucks have a lot of time to decide what the future holds at the point guard position. They have tons of flexibility as far as their salary cap goes and have more players on affordable deals with upside today than they did last week.

That sounds like a team focused on tomorrow to me. That sounds like a strategy that I can get behind … for now. We’ve still got many moves ahead in the coming months and there’s a possibility that this season’s success could change the course of the franchise going forward. But if this trade deadline is any indication, it appears that it won’t.

]]>http://www.bucksketball.com/2015/02/trading-brandon-knight-is-more-about-tomorrow-than-today/feed/12Report: Bucks looking to buy out Larry Sandershttp://www.bucksketball.com/2015/02/report-bucks-looking-to-buyout-larry-sanders/
http://www.bucksketball.com/2015/02/report-bucks-looking-to-buyout-larry-sanders/#commentsTue, 17 Feb 2015 06:44:18 +0000http://www.bucksketball.com/?p=15124According to ESPN’s Marc Stein, the Milwaukee Bucks and Larry Sanders have begun discussions about a possible buyout of the remainder of his contract.

Buyout discussions have begun between the Milwaukee Bucks and Larry Sanders that would make the recently suspended big man a free agent, according to league sources.

Sanders has three years and $33 million remaining on his contract after this season. Stein also reported that, as the team works towards a buyout, Sanders is not expected to return:

With buyout talks officially underway, Larry Sanders is not expected to play for Bucks again. East’s 30-23 upstarts moving on without him

In 27 games (26 starts), Sanders averaged 7.3 points, 6.1 rebounds, 1.4 blocks and 1.0 steals in 21.7 minutes per game this season.

Since signing a four year, $44 million extension in the summer of 2013, Sanders has played in a total of 50 games, while battling injuries, a variety of suspensions and most recently, personal issues.

It’s remarkable how quickly the situation with Larry Sanders has gone from positive to negative. The one time candidate for defensive player of the year and center of a glowing contract extension press conference at a local Boys and Girls Club quickly turned into an outcast last season. And just when it seemed like he was winning back the public this season, things went awry again.

As recently as mid-December, a feature was written by Sports Illustrated’s Ben Golliver that hit all of the “he’s working his way back on the court and in our hearts” trope notes. Sanders talked about moving on and being the hero he wanted to be. Golliver noted that he had accepted a reduced role in the best interest of the team and was trying to be a big brother for guys like Giannis Antetokounmpo.

Weeks after that story was published, Sanders was no longer with the team and reports emerged that he didn’t want to play basketball anymore. He surfaced to deny those reports, telling media that he was “in the process of working things out now to do as best for my psyche and my physical health going forward.” Not long after taking leave, Sanders was suspended by the league for violating its drug policy. The suspension lasted for 12 games.

He received a great deal of vitriol from fans and seemed to respond to both the frequent attacks via social media channels and general speculation on what was next with him with a series of occasionally cryptic or combativetweets, the most recent of which simply saying, “Soon you will all know the truth.”

Milwaukee will very likely have to eat a healthy, healthy portion of the remainder of Sanders’ deal, though that doesn’t mean they’re doomed to salary cap hell. The Detroit Pistons waived Josh Smith earlier this season rather than reaching a buyout with him, which cost them the entire $27 million that remained on his deal, but they were able to use the “stretch provision” in the collective bargaining agreement. Per Larry Coon’s CBA FAQ, here’s an example of how the stretch provision works:

If the player is waived from September 1 to June 30, then the current season is paid per the normal payment schedule, and any remaining years are stretched over twice the number of years remaining plus one as described above. For example, if the player is waived on December 1 with two seasons remaining on his contract at $10.2 million and $10.5 million, respectively, then the current season (at $10.2 million) is paid normally, and the final season (at $10.5 million) is stretched over three years (one season times two, plus one) and paid in even amounts of $3.5 million per year.

So, hypothetically, if Sanders is waived and a buyout deal is reached so Milwaukee has to only pay $32 million of his $33 million in remaining salary after this season, they would have to pay out that over seven years, which is his three remaining years times two, plus one year. The Bucks could then spread his salary cap hit out over that period of time or decide to take the entire hit as it currently exists, with the $32 million counting towards the cap over just the next three seasons.

Regardless of how the math works, it’s all messy and sad and a blow to Milwaukee’s #OwnTheFuture mantra. Sanders was supposed to be part of that future. At 26-years-old, he was one of the young guys the Bucks were counting on before the season to help turn around a moribund franchise as a new ownership group embarked on a new franchise identity. Alongside Giannis and Jabari Parker, Sanders seemed as sure a bet as any player to be a long term piece for the franchise. That bet was based partly on the impact of the contract Milwaukee’s now trying to get out of, but also because he was one of the few players on the roster that had display legitimate top of the NBA type skills, as a shot-blocker and defender, in his career at some point.

But the NBA is not a simple or stable place. Relationships evolve, for better and worse, over time. We’ve apparently reached a point where the Bucks and Larry Sanders (or at the very least the Bucks) feel like there’s no salvaging this relationship and it’s time to move on.