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Monday, 26 November 2012

Throughout the year leading up to the
November elections, I had a friend who called regularly for reassurance that
whoever the Republicans nominated would defeat Obama. I began to keep a file of
what the political commentators had to say on the subject. Suffice to say, I
ended up convinced that Romney could not lose.

An article by Mark Knoller, CBS News
White House correspondent, on December 31, 2010 is a good place to start. “No
numbers in the year just ending are more consequential for President Obama than
the results of the midterm elections. His party lost seats in the Senate and its
majority in the House.” Like many, I concluded that Obama’s reversal of fortune
would be reflected in 2012.

By April 2011, however, a Wall Street
Journal article noting that Mitt Romney was the early front-runner for the
Republican nomination reported that “Some 43% of 1,000 adults polled said they
would probably vote for Mr. Obama, versus 39% who said they would likely vote
Republican, a five-point lead that is unchanged from February.” I should have
paid more attention, but didn’t. I would have voted for the GOP candidate if he
was Charlie Sheen.