Wednesday, November 30, 2011

Here is the latest NFL Sweat Barometer. It shows how well or poorly teams are playing vs. the spread. The formulas behind the figures you are seeing are for my eyes only, but you can utilize the end result marks in your handicapping this weekend.

Tuesday, November 29, 2011

Each team
has five games left in the 2011 season and there are only two things certain
about the playoffs at this point: Green Bay and San Francisco will be a
part of them. Other than that, every
spot is wide open and a lot of jockeying for position will be going on as we
head into December.

Let’s take a
look at how the playoff picture is shaping up using my model which uses actual
results through the first 11 games for each team, and for the remaining five
games forecasts estimated chance of winning each game based upon current team
power ratings.

To use a
specific example, let’s take a look at the Thursday night game in Wk13:

Philadelphia
Power Rating: 22.5 which equal a 1pt edge in my matrix

Seattle Power
Rating: 18.0 which equals a -3pt loss in my matrix

Home
field advantage: 2.5pt edge between these two teams

Total: Philadelphia 1.5pts edge. That 1.5pts equates to a 51.2% chance of
winning the game for the Eagles.

I would then
add up each team’s five remaining % chances of winning each game, add those
estimated “wins” to their current actual wins, and have my estimated standings
for the end of the season.

1.Both
wildcards in each conference are coming from the same division which is
interesting.

a.In
the AFC it appears whoever does not win the AFC North between Baltimore
and Pittsburgh
will be a lock to be the #5 seed and face the AFC West winner in the Wild Card
round of the playoffs. But who will grab
the other spot? That seems to come down
to Cincinnati, NY
Jets and outside shots Tennessee and Oakland. A good indicator of projecting the winner of
this last spot is to look at SOS – and based on how I calculate SOS which is
75% weighted on statistical performance and 25% based on team records,
Cincinnati has a significantly tougher schedule than NY checking in at #8
(opponent record they have the 10th toughest while my statistical
analysis has them at 9th toughest), while the Jets are tied for #28
(opponent record #31, statistical performance #25). When taking a closer look at each team’s
schedule we can see Cincinnati’s SOS is largely being driven by next week @ Pittsburgh,
and closing the season hosting Baltimore; the three games sandwiched between
they will be favored to win including a possible huge break playing Houston
late in the season w/o Schaub. The NY
Jets it seems have the tougher schedule week to week, but have no matchups
remaining with likely playoff teams outside the long shot NY Giants. Keep in mind the way this model and
projection sets up you make up more ground when pulling off wins the bigger an
underdog you are – currently the Bengals have only a 25% chance of winning
their game on Sunday at Pittsburgh, while the Jets have a 61.5% chance of
winning in Washington; if the Bengals were to win they would pick up .75 wins
(their .25 chance of winning is already baked into number above, an actual win
would be worth 1 so they would pick up an additional .75) whereas if the Jets
win they will receive their .615, all of which is already in the number above. Keep that in mind when watching the games
this weekend. Tennessee has been
extremely inconsistent since winning 3 straight early in the season, and with
Matt Hasselbeck banged up it seems unlikely they will be consistent enough to
close the season and contend for that final wild card spot – though we did see
some life from Chris Johnson finally last week.
Their road is that much tougher taking into account that tough home loss
a few weeks ago where they blew a second half lead to the Bengals. Oakland
on the other hand may be peaking with Carson Palmer feeling more comfortable by
the week, and Darren McFadden likely to come back fully rested shortly. The aspect I do not like about Oakland is
their remaining schedule: @ MIA (MIA has won 3 of 4 and their last 3 losses
have come by a combined 7pts), @ GB (enough said), hosting DET (who will also
be in a battle for the NFC Wild Card), @ KC (Arrowhead is never an easy place
to play, and consider KC will be upgrading their QB position shortly when Kyle
Orton takes over), and concluding with San Diego at home. They will certainly be in a battle with the
upstart Denver Broncos in the AFC West, but that schedule is daunting to say
the least. To summarize the AFC final WC
spot, I believe it will come down to Cincinnati
and the NY Jets – perhaps being decided on how “motivated” the Ravens are in
the final week of the regular season when they face the Bengals.

b.In
the NFC currently both Wild Card teams are coming from the NFC North, Chicago and Detroit. With the injury to Jay Cutler a few weeks ago
I feel both WC spots are still relatively wide open, with the aforementioned
pair of North teams battling with Atlanta first and foremost, and potentially
the NY Giants who have skidded to a 3gm losing streak following their win at
New England. On top of all that the
Giants have the 2nd toughest closing schedule in the entire NFL
according to my numbers, only behind CLE – while CHI is #25, ATL #13, DET
#7. Detroit
at this point seems like they could be the odd man out, though they currently
are hanging onto the last spot by a decent margin over Atlanta.
With games still remaining on the road against New
Orleans, Oakland and Green Bay, along with home games vs. Minnesota
and San Diego –
it will take at least winning the pair of home games and one of those road
games to have a shot at the playoffs.
And keep in mind they are likely to be without the service of DT Suh for
at least a game, possibly two – so they clearly have an uphill battle ahead of
themselves especially for a young team experiencing this for the first time. Chicago has lost the services of their QB and
will go with the untested and inexperienced Caleb Hanie – at least their
remaining schedule is the easiest of the four likely playing only one playoff
team - @ GB 2nd to last week of the season who may or may not be
resting players for all or part of that game.
The Falcons are the hottest team of the bunch right now, and their fate
will likely rest in their division as they are currently 1-2 within it and have
3 remaining games, 2 of which are on the road; in addition they facing HOU and
JAC from the AFC South – if they take care of business there, and win one of
the road division games I think they will seal up a spot. The NYG have dropped three straight and still
have a pair of games vs. Dallas upcoming, along
with matchups with Green Bay
and the NY Jets. It seems very unlikely
to me they can make the playoffs at this point outside sweeping the Cowboys and
potentially winning the NFC East. To
summarize, even though Chicago and Detroit are the two teams projected to win
the WC spots at this point, I feel Atlanta grabs one spot for certain, and the
last spot will come down to Chicago vs. Detroit – basically how successful can
Hanie be under center for the Bears.

2.Few
other tidbits related to the standings above:

a.As
has been the case since Wk5 the Indianapolis Colts all but mathematically have
the #1 draft pick locked up – even if Peyton Manning came back and played a few
games at the end of the season, their schedule and the gap they have between
them and the next teams which are St Louis & Minnesota with 2 wins apiece
is just too large. Let the speculation
begin on whether the Colts will draft Andrew Luck, and what will they do with
Peyton Manning as this offseason is the only chance they have at getting out of
the big contract they gave him last offseason.

b.Here
are the biggest variances since beginning of season as it relates to wins:

i.Teams better than originally forecasted
including Vegas O/U before season:

1.SF: beginning of season 5.8, current
11.8 = +6 [Vegas O/U 7.5]

2.CIN: 5.9 to 9.5 = +3.6 [5.5]

3.GB: 11.5 to 14.8 = +3.3 [11.5]

4.HOU: 8.7 to 11.4 = +2.7 [8.5]

5.DEN: 7 to 9.6 = +2.6 [5.5]

ii.Teams worse than originally forecasted:

1.IND: 8.3 to 0.9 = -7.4 [9.5]

2.PHI: 11.8 to 6.9 = -4.9 [10.5]

3.STL:
7.7 to 4 = -3.7 [7.5]

4.SD: 10.5 to 6.9 = -3.6 [10]

5.MIN: 7.6 to 5.1 = -2.5 [7]

c.Prior
to the season vs. Current projections:

i.AFC: 4 of the 6 projected playoff teams the
same; two differences are SD winning the AFC West, and NY Jets winning the #6
seed. We could still see the Jets win
the WC which would bring us to 5.

ii.NFC: 3 of the 6 projected playoff teams the
same; the three differences are Philadelphia
winning the NFC East, Arizona winning the NFC
West, and Atlanta
grabbing the #6 seed. We could still see
Atlanta win the
WC which would bring us to 4.

d.Following
games in Wk2 we had Detroit
winning one WC spot in the NFC and they have hung on thus far each week in the
projections.

e.Following
games in Wk3 we had San Francisco
winning the NFC West [they were just 2-1 at that time]. Adding that to us having GB and NO winning their
respective divisions before the season began means we nailed 3 of the 4
division winners in the NFC since September 25!
Add to that we have had New England and Houston winning their divisions in the AFC before
the season began which means since September 25 we have had 5 of the 8 division
winners nailed! The other 3 are the NFC
North that has bounced back and forth between Pittsburgh
and Baltimore (BAL
has held it 8 of the 12 weeks), and these two…..

f.The AFC West and the NFC East have been the most
turbulent divisions so far this season.
In the AFC West, SD was projected to win the division through Wk9, but
following the DEN win @ KC in Week 10 they have taken over that spot and now
have a projected 1.5gm lead on second place Oakland.
All four teams have at one time or another been in every other position
in the standings, #2-#4. In the NFC East
all four teams have been projected to finish in first place at one time or
another: Philadelphia held down the top spot from the preseason through Wk3
games, Washington then took over for one week, Dallas took over from Wk5-7,
Philadelphia took it back over following Wk8 games, the Giants took it over for
one week following Wk9 action, now Dallas has taken it back over after Wk10
games and has held on since. The Giants
are the only team that has a realistic shot currently at taking that spot back
over with the previously mentioned pair of remaining games with the Cowboys.

Here are projected lines of the current playoff
match-ups I have above using where the power ratings for each team and their
respective home advantage/road disadvantage numbers check in:

AFC

#6 Cincinnati @ #3 New England:
My line currently sits at Patriots -4.
Vegas would have this number at approximately Patriots -6 based on power
ratings (they have NE one level above where I do), but add in bettor bias and
key numbers and they probably start the number Patriots -7.5 trying to get
Bengals money to come in.

#5 Baltimore @ #4 Denver:
My line currently sits at Ravens -2.
Vegas would have this number at approximately Ravens -4 (they have BAL
one level higher than I do), and that is where it likely would open.

If
seeds held through and the NFC Championship Game had San
Francisco @ Green Bay: My
line currently sits at Green Bay
-8.5. Vegas would have a similar number
here as well, possibly up to -10 as even at that high a number you would still
see a lot of GB money, with probably the sharps coming in late on SF.

NFC

#6 Detroit @ #3 New
Orleans: My line currently sits at Saints
-6.63. These teams happen to be playing
this week and the line opened at New Orleans -9.5 – once again Vegas has one of
the better teams in the NFL one level higher than I do. If these teams were to meet again a lot of
the opening line on that game will be based upon how the game on Sunday goes.

#5 Chicago @ #4 Dallas:
My line currently sits at Cowboys -2.5 with Cutler playing, as I have these two
teams with identical ratings of 23.25 tied for 9th in the NFL. Vegas would have this number at approximately
the same, possibly Cowboys -4 because at times they seem to have Dallas one level above where I do, and I do not see “America’s Team”
opening at a number half point below the biggest key number in the NFL. Would be too easy for Dallas to see a lot of money, the line moving
to -3.5 and being bought back which could possibly have Vegas middle – never
good for them.

If
seeds held through and the AFC Championship Game had Houston
@ Pittsburgh:
My line currently sits at Steelers -5 assuming Schaub would be back for that
game. These two teams did face off in
Wk4 in Houston with the Texans favored by 4; Houston won 17-10 and the
Texans actually outplayed the Steelers by more than that final score
indicates. It’s hard to project what
Vegas would do with this game, or even myself for that matter because of the
uncertainty at the QB spot for HOU, but if Schaub did have a few weeks under
his belt before playing in this game, and was back to close to 100%, you would
see a line lower than what I currently have; probably Pittsburgh -3.5/-4.

Projected
Super Bowl Lines:

GB
vs. PIT: GB -3

GB
vs. HOU: GB -5

PIT
vs. SF: PIT -4

HOU
vs. SF: HOU -2

If anyone has questions please email me at: boss@thesportsboss.com. I respond to all questions, and will never
spam your email account with anything that you do not specifically ask me for.

I will be back later in the week with some
number crunching as far as stats, and team performance goes as we head into
December and down the homestretch of another NFL season.

The SportsBoss is a handicapping "broker" that offers NFL, NBA, NCAA football, NCAA basketball, NHL and MLB picks. The Sports Boss leverages his background which includes both a BS and MBA in Finance to build robust, analytical models which aid in predicting outcomes of games in every sport.