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Pebble Hunting: The Hall of Fame 50 Percent Probability Test

I was wondering whether Andrew McCutchen, after winning his first MVP award, was on a Hall of Fame track. So I went to look at what the typical Hall of Famer had at the same age, then realized with shame that the thing I’ve been doing all these years—looking at what the typical Hall of Famer had at the same age—doesn’t make any logical sense. Yes, the average Hall of Famer might have had (X) WARP through age 26, but

the average Powerball winner has an IQ of 80

the average person with an IQ of 80 does not win Powerball

or any of billions of similar examples that make the point that my way wouldn’t have shown how many non-HOFers at the same level washed out. So if I can’t just look at what the median Hall of Famer had at McCutchen’s age, what can I do? Find the Wins/Age combination at which exactly 50 percent of players (or as close as possible) end up in the Hall of Fame. And then use that to name all the active players who are likely to make the Hall of Fame, times two.

(Definition of terms: We’re using Baseball-Reference’s WAR for this, as WARP is limited to seasons since 1950. We’re ignoring pitchers. That’ll be a post for a different day. And to account for players who are retired and, in my opinion, likely to make the Hall of Fame but ineligible or unapproved yet, I am assigning eight future Hall of Famers into the historical count: Craig Biggio, Jeff Bagwell, Barry Bonds, Ken Griffey Jr, Chipper Jones, Mike Piazza, Frank Thomas, and Jim Thome. Of course, there’s a logical problem with this approach, too, which we’ll get to.)

Age 20
20 of 40 players with at least 2.1 wins through age 20 made the Hall of Fame. Half-probably Hall of Famers: Bryce Harper, Manny Machado

Harper’s 9.0 wins are the fourth-most in history; Mike Trout almost certainly surpassed the 2.1-win threshold in a single month at least once during his age-20 season. Machado is solidly into the likely zone, but the names immediately around him are especially distinguished:

Bob Horner marks the lowest limit of probability—that is, he had exactly 2.1 wins through age 20.

Age 2126 of 48 players with at least 4.8 wins through age 21 made the Hall of Fame.Half-probably Hall of Famers: Mike Trout

Quick fact about Trout: The youngest active player with more wins than he has already: McCutchen! Five-years-older McCutchen.

Willie Randolph marks the highest limit of improbability, with 4.7 wins through age 21.

Age 2232 of 62 players with at least 7.7 wins through age 22 made the Hall of FameHalf-probably Hall of Famers: Nobody. On the other hand, YasielPuig produced 5.0 wins in 104 games, so you might expect him to clear the age-23 or age-24 mark.

Grady Sizemore is the low end of Hall of Fame probability: [all the sad face emoticons go here]

Age 23
49 of 98 players with at least 10.2 wins through age 23 made the Hall of Fame.
Half-probably Hall of Famers:Jason Heyward, Giancarlo Stanton, and Brett Lawrie, who represents the lowest line of probability at this age. Just missing is Freddie Freeman; considering the stats that make up his value and the stats that make of Lawrie’s value, you might be tempted to adjust expectations in your head accordingly.

A year or so ago, I wrote briefly about Starlin Castro’s chances of making the Hall, based solely on his playing time and age. “Knowing nothing about Starlin Castro except his age and how much he has played, we can say he is in a group from which 44 percent of players have become Hall of Famers.” Castro never felt like a future Hall of Famer, but he was an actuary’s version of a future Hall of Famer. Fittingly, so far in his career he has straddled these thresholds, too. Through age 20, he was 0.7 wins short of qualifying as likely; through age 21, he was 0.4 wins short; through age 22, he was 0.3 wins ahead of pace; and now, after a lost season, he is nearly three wins short. He’s tied with Willie McCovey at the same age, but he’s also tied with Eddie Murphy—who, like the other Eddie Murphy, didn’t age well. Only 39 percent of players with 7.4 wins or more, as Castro has, made the Hall.

Age 24
51 of 102 players with at least 13.8 wins made the Hall of FameHalf-probably Hall of Famers: Elvis Andrus.

Andrus, unlike Castro, has kept his head above the line from age-20 on, and at age 24 he’s comfortable ahead, with 17 wins. About 62 percent of players with 17 wins made the Hall, but even though Andrus has more wins than Frank Thomas I’d bet my house against your car that he won’t make the Hall.Darryl Strawberry, with 13.6 wins at this age, is the upper limit of improbability.

Age 25
60 of 119 players with at least 17.5 wins through age 26 made the Hall of Fame.
Half-probably Hall of Famers: None.Ruben Sierra and Ralph Kiner are tied at the upper end of improbability for this age.

Age 26
73 of 146 players with at least 19.9 wins through age 26 made the Hall of Fame.
Half-probably Hall of Famers: McCutchen. You might have noticed, incidentally, that we still haven’t reached Mike Trout’s career total yet. Untitled Fox-Dreamworks Animation/Fox-Blue Sky Studios animated film is scheduled to be released in North America on Dec. 21, 2018. Mike Trout could spend the next five seasons waiting in line for that movie and still be on pace to make the Hall of Fame.

Austin Jackson just, just misses making the age-26 half-probables. Buster Posey misses, too, and isn’t nearly as close. That seems like an oversight by the method. I’d probably bet on Posey over anybody named thus far except Trout, Harper, Stanton and perhaps McCutchen.

Jason Kendall is the lowest end of probability. This was the year that Chipper Jones (20.0, with a career path not unlike Posey’s) edged into likelihood.

Age 27
83 of 166 players with at least 23.0 wins by age 27 made the Hall of Fame.
Half-probably Hall of Famers: Evan Longoria.

Age 2888 of 176 players with at least 26.0 wins through age 28 made the Hall of Fame.Half-probably Hall of Famers: Ryan Zimmerman, Troy Tulowitzki. Zimmerman doesn’t particularly seem like a Hall of Famer—he’s a bit behind Scott Rolen’s pace, and Rolen never particularly seemed like a Hall of Famer (though he should have)—but Evan Longoria needs a four-win season this year to match him through age 28.

Age 29
90 of 179 players with at least 29.2 wins through age 29 made the Hall of Fame.|Half-probably Hall of Famers: Dustin Pedroia, Ryan Braun, Joey Votto, Hanley Ramirez

For players who want to stay on pace, the biggest jumps come from ages 23 to 24, ages 24 to 25, and ages 25 to 26: about 3.6 wins per year, peaking at a 3.7-win jump for 25-year-olds. Then it settles around three wins a year for the traditional prime seasons; age 29, at 3.2 wins, is the last year before the real decline starts for the group. The next year’s Hall of Fame probables will add only 2.4 wins, and the typical Hall of Famer will be only about a league-average player through his 30s. He’ll be Raul Ibanez, basically.

Age 30
97 of 194 players with at least 31.6 wins through age 30 made the Hall of Fame.
Half-probably Hall of Famers: Miguel Cabrera, David Wright, Robinson Cano, Joe Mauer, Jose Reyes.
From ages 24 to 25 we got one player, Andrus, who isn’t actually going to make it; from 29 to 30 we got nine, seven of whom (all but Hanley Ramirez and Jose Reyes) actually seem likely to make it on merits. (Braun probably won’t on other grounds; on the other hand, Ramirez and Reyes each has a pulse left.) I don’t know if this is a glitch that happens as this exercise moves into older groups, or just a cluster.

Age 31
101 of 200 players with at least 34.1 wins through age 31 made the Hall of Fame
Half-probably Hall of Famers: Carl Crawford, Ian Kinsler. Neither of whom seems likely. Kinsler is extremely close to falling out of this group.

Age 32
105 of 207 players with at least 36.3 wins through age 32 made the Hall of Fame
Half-probably Hall of Famers: Nobody. Guess it wasn’t a glitch.

I told you there was a different problem with this method, and here’s where it’s most obvious. Pujols and Teixeira are both over 38 wins; combined, they are each 50 percent likely to make the Hall of Fame; and, in reality, only one is going to make the Hall of Fame. But Pujols and Teixeira aren’t really in a group at all; Pujols has produced well over twice as many wins as Teixeira has. He’s a 100 percent lock to make the Hall (on merits, anyway). So

if 50 percent of the players who have at least 38 wins make the Hall, and

100 percent of the players who have at least 88 wins make the Hall, and

some players have at least 88 wins,

then less than 50 percent of the people under 88 won’t make the Hall.

In this case,

100 percent of players with at least 70 wins through age 33 made the Hall of Fame.

70 percent of players with 50 to 69.9 wins through age 33 made the Hall of Fame.

33 percent of players with 38 to 49.9 wins through age 33 made the Hall of Fame.

In Teixeira and Holliday’s cases, I can just about buy that.

This doesn’t seem to be much of a problem when the players are young. A player’s chances don’t go up much whether he has, say, seven wins or 10 by age 21. But by now the 50 percent talk is totally misleading; there are just way too many sure things, guys who have already passed not just the on-pace mark but the guaranteed-enshrinement threshold. Which is just to note that we have named 25 players so far. About half will make the Hall of Fame. They are not, obviously, all 50 percent likely to.

Love him as a player, and he'll be more valuable than some HOFers by the time it's done, but I'd guess there aren't many players in the Awards era who play five full seasons without a single MVP vote or Gold Glove award who go on to make the HOF

Let me complete your sentence.
...unless they stick around long enough to collect 3,000 hits.
Andrus has almost 800 hits. He seems durable enough. If he collects 170 hits per year, he'll reach 3,000 at the age 38. It's not likely, but it is definitely more likely than you are giving him credit!

True, but if you can stick around and be useful enough, long enough, to reach some of those big round numbers, you've probably got something going for you.
Now, if what you've got is mind-numbing consistency, well, that's not going to get people excited over you, but it's not without merit.

Behemoth

11/20

Yeah, I just don't think that you'll get in for being Elvis Andrus as he is at present for long enough to get you to 3,000 hits.

lyricalkiller

11/19

Could be! I thought Damon and Renteria had chances at 3,000 hits but not at the HOF. Somebody will break the auto-elect rule at some point, dunno if that'll be Andrus on either count. I like Andrus though! For what it's worth.

Aside from the off-the-field exclusions (Rose, A-Rod if he ever plays again), is there an active candidate for the "3,000 hits but not HOF Club"?
(Assuming strong longevity... regular play through age 40/41.) Jimmy Rollins? Michael Young? Carl Crawford? Nick Markakis?
Everyone else seems either too good to avoid induction (Pujols, Cabrera, Beltre, two solid years from Ichiro, a good second act from Cano/Wright/Pedroia), or too unlikely to hang on as a starter (Beltran's health, Juan Pierre's terribleness).

grandslam28

11/20

Palmeiro

grandslam28

11/20

nevermind

adamst

11/21

Tell me more about your house and what you think my car is. I agree Andrus isn't really 50-50 to make the Hall of Fame but getting 20:1 or maybe 50:1, I think I'd take that bet.

There's probably some value in removing the VC guys from a study like this. They had so many poor selections that they should probably be removed. The Frisch committee electing all of his teammates on the Cardinals & Giants probably doesn't bear much predictive value.
On a related note, there's a tendency to overrate the bar for the Hall of Fame. There are 30-40 active guys who will be in the HOF. About 2 born each year.

Rather than somebody to be made fun of, maybe the average Power Ball player is a hard working person being ripped off by his or her employer or of whatever other tough circumstance in our difficult world.

There is also the problem of the expansion timebomb causing standards to go up pretty dramatically. So the guys this article sees as being 50/50 shots are probably more like 25% due to the number of qualified candidates meeting old standards going through the roof.

Fun article. Since you mention the problem with throwing everyone into the same bucket of 50% likelihood, here's a suggestion for a new individual player stat: The % of players with similar WAR/age totals who end up making the hall. Pujols would be a 100%, Tiexiera would be what, 20% or something. At one point, BP was chucking out new stats like this every week. Quick, somebody invent an acronym!

By the way, Teixeira's low hall likelihood is illustrated all the more effectively by the fact that he's been in the league over a decade and I still can't spell his damn name (and for some reason, my spell check OKs me if I incorrectly invert the i's and e's)

t would probably be more accurate to also include an estimation of current talent level. Hanley Ramirez & Jose Reyes are close in age and career WAR, but Hanley is probably three times more likely to merit a Hall of Fame selection. Same with Tulo & Fielder, etc.

So, when you are asked to back up your point, you come back with a raw assertion, no data or history? Not acceptable. I'd like to know what your point is, because I think the players are so comparable, I can't figure out how to differentiate!

izzy2112

11/21

Hanley Ramirez is coming off a year where he hit .345/.402/.638 with 5.1 WAR in 86 games. Reyes is coming off a year where he hit .296/.353/.427 with 2.2 WAR in 93 games. Both Reyes and Hanley have to be better than the typical guy with ~35 WAR through age 30 to be HOF caliber players. The upside for a guy like Hanley is far higher. It's far more likely that he'll be among the best players in baseball going forward than Reyes.

houstonuser

11/20

I'm still wondering what the point was in tossing in an unnecessary comment that certain groups of people--people likely struggling in many respects--are not very bright. There was not another way to make the point?

Hi, Houstonuser! As this is obviously important to you, I am happy to respond.
I would say there was not only another way to make the point, but there were (as noted) billions of other ways to make the point. I chose that one because it was an exceptionally clear way of making the point. The average person understands in a small number of words that playing the lottery is an irrational way of trying to have money, and that the few people who win the lottery have not shown a skill at making money. I felt no guilt about this example because lottery users are not a protected class of people. Indeed, they have nothing in common but a silly decision.
In conclusion: Playing lottery is stupid. I have played the lottery. I felt stupid for it. I was stupid for it. Don't play the lottery.

Posey is under the line only because he lost, what, 2/3 of a year to the ankle injury. There's no reason to think he wouldn't have earned at least 2 wins in that time, and it seems pretty likely he'll be over the line this time next year. Thank you, Scott Cousins.