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About 30,000 repeat offenders including thieves, burglars and those caught in possession of knives will be spared jail under Government plans to abolish short sentences, a new study shows.

The analysis by think tank Civitas says the reform ending sentences under six months would result in 34,000 convicted criminals escaping prison, of which 4,000 would be first-time offenders.

Of the 30,000, some 16,000 would have been convicted of theft or burglary, 3,100 for public order, 1,625 for possession of weapons and 1,121 for drug offences, according to the study based on Ministry of Justice data.

David Gauke, the Justice Secretary, signalled the abolition of sentences under six months last week, saying they were ineffective in preventing re-offending. It followed the disclosure of the plans earlier this year by prisons minister Rory Stewart in the Daily Telegraph.

“Rory Stewart claims ending sentences below six months would help respectable people to hold onto their jobs and reputations. In reality, his own department’s data makes clear it would mean tens of thousands more hardened criminals avoiding prison,” said the report’s author Peter Cuthbertson.

“It would mean far more victims of burglary and shoplifting, drink driving and knife crime. The government must now consider the evidence rather than proceed any further with plans for an effective amnesty for burglars, shoplifters and other prolific criminals.”

Although sexual and violent offenders would be exempted from the ban on short sentences, the Civitas research suggests it would mean the proportion of those caught in possession of a knife escaping jail would rise from 70% to 83%.

Some 58% of burglars would be spared prison, up from 44% at present, while custodial sentences for shoplifting would fall from 21% to 1%.

The study claims it would effectively remove the threat of prison from any kind of drug possession, a charge it says is often used by police against drug dealers when more substantive charges seem unlikely to stick.

The proposed sentencing reform would also reduce the number of drink and drug drivers sent to prison from one in 50 to one in 2,000.

Mr Cuthbertson, a crime researcher who has previously revealed the scale of serial offending, said the Ministry was underestimating the cross over between violent and sex offenders who were also prolific in lower level crimes.

His previous research showed just 4,000 (7%) of the 56,000 receiving custodial sentences of any length were first time offenders. By contrast, 74% had at least seven previous convictions or cautions.

“While the Government implies that its policy will be tough on those committing violent and sex offences, in fact it is overwhelmingly the same criminals committing all types of offence,” said Mr Cuthbertson.

“Burglars avoiding prison means violent offenders avoiding prison because it is the same criminals doing both.”

A Ministry of Justice (MoJ) spokesman said there was clear evidence that short sentences "often do more harm than good."

"They fail to rehabilitate many offenders and lead to high rates of reoffending, which actually makes us less safe and more likely to be a victim of crime," he said.

"That is why we are exploring more stringent and enforceable community sentences - but this work is ongoing and we've reached no conclusions at this time."