PALESTINIAN PUBLIC OPINION POLL No (48)

While less than a third of the public views the Palestinian Authority as an accomplishment, and while half describes their leadership as a failed one, and while 80% thinks the West Bank-Gaza Strip split is permanent or long term, support for a confederation with Jordan rises; and while the public rejects Kerry’s ideas for return to negotiations without pre-conditions, a large majority supports going to the International Criminal Court in order to stop settlement expansion even if such a step leads to PA collapse

13-15 June 2013

This survey was conducted with the support of the Konrad Adenauer Stiftung in Ramallah.

These are the results of the latest poll conducted by the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research (PSR) in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip between 13-15 June 2013. The period before the poll witnessed the resignation of the government of Salam Fayyad and the appointment of a new government headed by Rami Al Hamdallah, President of Al Najah University. The period also witnessed US Secretary of State John Kerry’s shuttle diplomacy in the hope of renewing Palestinian-Israeli negotiations. Earlier, Khalid Mishaal was elected as head of Hamas’s political bureau for a new term, the formation of a Palestinian reconciliation government was postponed by three months, and President Abbas signed an agreement with King Abdullah of Jordan regarding the king’s custodianship of Muslim holy places in Jerusalem. This press release covers public evaluation of the general West Bank and Gaza conditions, elections, reconciliation, public evaluation of the performance of the government of Ismail Haniyeh, public satisfaction with the performance of President Mahmud Abbas, the internal balance of power between Fateh and Hamas, the views of the public on the most vital Palestinian goals and the main problems Palestinians confront today in addition to Kerry’s efforts and the custodianship agreement. Total size of the sample is 1270 adults interviewed face to face in 127 randomly selected locations. Margin of error is 3%.

Findings of the second quarter of 2013 show a widespread state of frustration and pessimism. 80% believe that the West Bank-Gaza Strip split is either permanent or long term. Less than one third of the public views the PA, in its two incarnations in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip, as an accomplishment for the Palestinian people. Moreover, less than a third believes that a Palestinian state will be established in the next five years. In fact, a majority, while continuing to support the two-state solution, believes that it has become impractical due to settlement expansion. Perhaps for these reasons half of the public believes that its leadership from the beginnings has been a failed one.

Furthermore, findings of this poll indicate a significant decrease, about 10 percentage points, in the opposition to a confederation with Jordan compared to the situation several years ago. A larger percentage supports the confederation today than in 2007 and 2008. But they also make it clear that Palestinians oppose the establishment of confederation now before the end of Israeli occupation and the establishment of a Palestinian state. Despite that, findings do indicate that a majority supports the holy places agreement signed last March between President Mahmud Abbas and King Abdullah of Jordan in which the Palestinian side acknowledged the custodianship of the king over al Haram al Sharif in Jerusalem.

Findings also indicate public opposition to ideas brought by US Secretary of State John Kerry for restarting peace negotiations: without preconditions, with an economic package, and with focus on security and borders. The public is also opposed to several alternatives to negotiations such as return to an armed intifada, dissolution of the PA, and abandonment of the two-state solution in favor of one-state solution. But the public supports going to international organizations, especially to the International Criminal Court (ICC), despite its fears that such a step would bring about financial sanctions and the perhaps the collapse of the PA.