W's 'I like' factor is fading, too

Published: Tuesday, March 21, 2006 at 7:10 a.m.

Last Modified: Tuesday, March 21, 2006 at 7:10 a.m.

An iron rule of political campaigns holds that the higher the office voters are filling, then the more important the candidate is to the voters’ decision.

Think about it: When you’re casting a less-reflective vote for lieutenant governor or county assessor, the chances are good that you probably do not have strong personal impressions about the candidates. But when it comes to choosing a mayor, governor or, most especially, a president, most voters know how they feel about the qualifications, character and personality of the main contenders.

In 2004, by a lopsided margin voters judged Democrat John F. Kerry to be more intelligent than the incumbent Republican President George W. Bush. But those same voters felt much more personally comfortable with Bush as a neighbor than with Kerry. As Democratic pollster Peter D. Hart, who with Republican pollster Bill McInturff conducts the regular national surveys for The Wall Street Journal-NBC News, explained the electorate’s decision: ‘‘Voters (in 2004) valued ’I like’ over IQ.’’

Almost a year before that 2004 election, the Los Angeles Times poll asked voters in which of the following four divisions they would place themselves: A) I like George W. Bush as a person, and I also like most of his policies, or B) I like George W. Bush as a person, but I don’t like most of his policies, or C) I don’t like George W. Bush as a person, but I like most of his policies, or, finally, D) I don’t like George W. Bush as a person, and I don’t like most of his policies.

More than two out of three voters (68 percent) answered that they liked George W. Bush as a person (40 percent of whom liked both Bush the person and his policies). A quirky 6 percent said they didn’t like Bush as a person, but did like his policies.

That left 28 percent of those surveyed in the don’t-like-him-as-a-person-don’t-like-his-policies category. Those cars you see with the ‘‘Kerry-Edwards’’ bumper stickers still proudly and prominently displayed were almost surely members of that 28 percent.

President Bill Clinton, in a June 1996 survey, found that 27 percent of the public didn’t like him personally or his polices. For President Ronald Reagan in January of 1987, following the Iran-Contra black eye, one out of four voters liked neither him as a person nor his policies.

But here is the bad news for the White House: In this week’s Wall Street Journal-NBC News national poll, Hart and McInturff report that voters who like George W. Bush personally have fallen from 68 percent in late 2003 to 57 percent today. Those who answer they now like both the president as a person and as a policymaker have dropped from 40 percent to just 29 percent. Worse for Team Bush is the finding that now nearly two out of five American voters (38 percent) ‘‘don’t like (GWB) personally and disapprove of many of (his) policies.’’

Bush’s declining personal favorable ratings are evident in the national surveys conducted by the Pew Research Center. Respondents were asked in polls conducted in February 2004, July 2005 and March 2006 what single word best described their impression of the president. In January 2005, ‘‘honest’’ led the list, named by 38 percent of those polled. By last July, ‘‘honest’ was named by 31 percent and was still first, but ’’incompetent‘‘ had climbed to second place from mentions by 14 percent to 26 percent.

By mid-March 2006, ’’incompetent‘‘ was the most frequently chosen single word describing President Bush, picked by 29 percent of respondents, and ’’honest‘‘ had dropped like a rock (behind ’’ idiot‘‘ and ’’liar,‘‘ among others) to sixth place, mentioned by only 14 percent.

George W. Bush eventually may be able to repair and rebuild the frayed trust between the nation’s voters and their president. But he will have to try to do so with the sobering realization that the reservoir of personal affection the public once felt for him has been seriously depleted, that he no longer can depend on ’’I like‘‘ over IQ.

<p>An iron rule of political campaigns holds that the higher the office voters are filling, then the more important the candidate is to the voters’ decision.</p><p> Think about it: When you’re casting a less-reflective vote for lieutenant governor or county assessor, the chances are good that you probably do not have strong personal impressions about the candidates. But when it comes to choosing a mayor, governor or, most especially, a president, most voters know how they feel about the qualifications, character and personality of the main contenders.</p><p> In 2004, by a lopsided margin voters judged Democrat John F. Kerry to be more intelligent than the incumbent Republican President George W. Bush. But those same voters felt much more personally comfortable with Bush as a neighbor than with Kerry. As Democratic pollster Peter D. Hart, who with Republican pollster Bill McInturff conducts the regular national surveys for The Wall Street Journal-NBC News, explained the electorate’s decision: Voters (in 2004) valued ’I like’ over IQ.’’</p><p> Almost a year before that 2004 election, the Los Angeles Times poll asked voters in which of the following four divisions they would place themselves: A) I like George W. Bush as a person, and I also like most of his policies, or B) I like George W. Bush as a person, but I don’t like most of his policies, or C) I don’t like George W. Bush as a person, but I like most of his policies, or, finally, D) I don’t like George W. Bush as a person, and I don’t like most of his policies.</p><p> More than two out of three voters (68 percent) answered that they liked George W. Bush as a person (40 percent of whom liked both Bush the person and his policies). A quirky 6 percent said they didn’t like Bush as a person, but did like his policies. </p><p>That left 28 percent of those surveyed in the don’t-like-him-as-a-person-don’t-like-his-policies category. Those cars you see with the Kerry-Edwards’’ bumper stickers still proudly and prominently displayed were almost surely members of that 28 percent.</p><p> President Bill Clinton, in a June 1996 survey, found that 27 percent of the public didn’t like him personally or his polices. For President Ronald Reagan in January of 1987, following the Iran-Contra black eye, one out of four voters liked neither him as a person nor his policies.</p><p> But here is the bad news for the White House: In this week’s Wall Street Journal-NBC News national poll, Hart and McInturff report that voters who like George W. Bush personally have fallen from 68 percent in late 2003 to 57 percent today. Those who answer they now like both the president as a person and as a policymaker have dropped from 40 percent to just 29 percent. Worse for Team Bush is the finding that now nearly two out of five American voters (38 percent) don’t like (GWB) personally and disapprove of many of (his) policies.’’</p><p> Bush’s declining personal favorable ratings are evident in the national surveys conducted by the Pew Research Center. Respondents were asked in polls conducted in February 2004, July 2005 and March 2006 what single word best described their impression of the president. In January 2005, honest’’ led the list, named by 38 percent of those polled. By last July, honest’ was named by 31 percent and was still first, but ’’incompetent had climbed to second place from mentions by 14 percent to 26 percent.</p><p> By mid-March 2006, ’’incompetent was the most frequently chosen single word describing President Bush, picked by 29 percent of respondents, and ’’honest had dropped like a rock (behind ’’ idiot and ’’liar, among others) to sixth place, mentioned by only 14 percent.</p><p> George W. Bush eventually may be able to repair and rebuild the frayed trust between the nation’s voters and their president. But he will have to try to do so with the sobering realization that the reservoir of personal affection the public once felt for him has been seriously depleted, that he no longer can depend on ’’I like over IQ.</p><p><i>Mark Shields writes for Creators Syndicate.</i></p>