Should Kisenosato have been promoted or not?

There has been differing views about this promotion with some calling it a "political" decision since the usual 33 wins in 3 basho was not followed. Just want to get a feel for what the majority of the forumites think

he should have to really prove that he can consistently knock out 10+ wins a basho like an Ozeki SHOULD .

Well, he's knocked out 10+ wins in 5 of the last 6 basho (Kotoshogiku and Baruto 5, Kakuryu 3, Harumafuji 2, Kotooshu 1), all in the joijin ranks, so actually this criterion of yours leads me to conclude that he should have been promoted! If it's 10+ that is asked of him, then I don't think there's any worry to have that he can do that as consistently as any other current ozeki.

he should have to really prove that he can consistently knock out 10+ wins a basho like an Ozeki SHOULD .

Well, he's knocked out 10+ wins in 5 of the last 6 basho (Kotoshogiku and Baruto 5, Kakuryu 3, Harumafuji 2, Kotooshu 1), all in the joijin ranks, so actually this criterion of yours leads me to conclude that he should have been promoted! If it's 10+ that is asked of him, then I don't think there's any worry to have that he can do that as consistently as any other current ozeki.

garh- stupid computer long reply written and poof! try again.

Yes 5 out of 6 is good, but he did have 8 basho before that that were very average. Perhaps he genuinely has improved and can keep this up. The standard is 33 wins over 3, the ideal measurement, not comparing him to the current crop of rather shabby ozeki -who aren't delivering what on Ozeki should be delivering and they got to be there with better promotion records too. Kotooshu is particularly disappointing: 6 years as an Ozeki and only two basho he has been above 11 wins, just two, 33 basho he has been 10-5 or less, just his 14-1 Yusho and a 13-2. He has never posted 12-3 or 11-4 as an ozeki! Harumafuji aswell, just two ozeki basho as above 10 wins, two 14-1 stand out in sea of mediocrity with 10-5 and less, much less.

Any new ozeki needs to be held to the highest ideals.

Private Pyle, if there is one thing in this world that I hate, it is a loose mawashi! You know that don't you?Full Metal Jacket

Yes 5 out of 6 is good, but he did have 8 basho before that that were very average.

You're holding against him that his results were not as good 2+ years ago? Even top-quality rikishi only have about 8 makuuchi years until they start declining; how long do you want them to prove themselves until you're really sure?

Definitely not in my opinion. The expectation from an ozeki is AT LEAST 10 wins, and participating fairly regularly in the yusho race (i know, the current ozekis don't really meet these standards either, but another mediocre ozeki isn't really needed). Kisenosato as a sanyaku only had one basho with more than 10 wins in his whole career. That doesn't really indicate he'll be able to compete for the yusho. Also, as far as i know there is an unwritten expectation in an ozeki run of leaving a good impression in the third basho. I don't know when was the last time somebody got promoted to ozeki with a 10-5 in his third basho, but i bet it was quite a long ago.

Definitely not in my opinion. The expectation from an ozeki is AT LEAST 10 wins, and participating fairly regularly in the yusho race (i know, the current ozekis don't really meet these standards either, but another mediocre ozeki isn't really needed).

Only the minority of Ozeki managed an average of 9 wins or better. As to the current bunch: Of course, the winning percentages of Baruto, Harumafuji and Kotooshu will likely fall as their careers move on. But being 1st, 7th, and 13th from a list of 32 does not strike me as a particularly underperforming crowd.

I think the "ozeki need to be in the yusho race much of the time" thing wouldn't be nearly as prevalent a belief if the mid-1990s had never happened. That comfy heya advantage enjoyed by Takanonami and Wakanohana has distorted the view of what a typical ozeki performance looks like. Add in the fact that with Musashimaru there was a near-yokozuna strength rikishi competing as (one might say, "stuck at") ozeki during the same period, and you have half a decade with basically no typical ozeki in the tournaments, but lots of fans whose fandom originated at that time.

I wouldn't be surprised if many of these "expectations" come from the English language commentary on NHK broadcasts. It's been many years since I abandoned those, but much of what I thought about sumo when I first became interested was influenced by what I heard while watching the English sub-channel. Some of the discussions here are with those whose only experience of live sumo is filtered through a very small group of commentators, and what they can read is filtered through another small group of columnists. Speaking personally, when I began to listen to the Japanese commentators and guests on the broadcasts, and then later started discussing sumo with the Japanese themselves, and later still began to understand a little of what appeared in local print, my views became somewhat less static.

Yeah, I almost blamed GSFI et al. in my previous post, but I really don't know for sure where it originated. The English commentary wouldn't surprise me as the source - and it's kind of understandable there. Difficult to provide historical context in running commentary, especially if the result of that would be that you constantly need to exclaim how great the current bunch of ozeki are performing. Much easier and more accessible for the viewers to just declare 10 wins + yusho contention "the usual" and go from there, even if the real baseline is probably more like 9 wins + sufficient ability to avoid going MK more than once a year or so.

Anyway, arguably the mid-1990s "typical ozeki" were Kaio and Musoyama, but they were still stuck at the sekiwake rank.

I voted 'no' because I think that the NSK will only want to have 5 ozekis on the banzuke (and I can't see any of the current crop making the move up to Yokozuna or being demoted or retiring in the near future) - and may raise the standard for a 6th.

There are others (i.e. Kakuryu) who are either now, or in the nearish future who are/could be Ozeki candidates. By lowering the normal standard for Kise, it will make it trickier for the others, which is unfair IMO.

I would have preferred to see Kakuryu and Kisenosato (plus others?) battling it out to get the 33 wins in 2012....

Definitely not in my opinion. The expectation from an ozeki is AT LEAST 10 wins, and participating fairly regularly in the yusho race (i know, the current ozekis don't really meet these standards either, but another mediocre ozeki isn't really needed).

At least 10? Where did you get this from? There has never been an Ozeki in history who even had an average of 10 wins. FWIW, here are all modern Ozeki in terms of their average number of wins while holding the rank (kyujo are discounted):1. Baruto 9.892. Kotokaze 9.883. Kirishima 9.70

<snip>

Only the minority of Ozeki managed an average of 9 wins or better. As to the current bunch: Of course, the winning percentages of Baruto, Harumafuji and Kotooshu will likely fall as their careers move on. But being 1st, 7th, and 13th from a list of 32 does not strike me as a particularly underperforming crowd.

I think it is unfair to only include ozekis who never made it to Yokozuna - as this will include the years when they were in decline. How about including the records of Ozeki who went on to become Ys?

I think it is unfair to only include ozekis who never made it to Yokozuna - as this will include the years when they were in decline. How about including the records of Ozeki who went on to become Ys?

On the contrary, I think it would be highly unfair to allow yokozuna-quality rikishi to skew the average. The question is if Kise is good enough to be an acceptable ozeki, not an acceptable ozeki-or-yokozuna. It's really not that hard to make a mental adjustment to the numbers that Randomitsuki posted to account for the fact that "career ozeki" should start with better averages than they end.

Small wonder though that so many people mistakenly believe that bog-standard ozeki are somehow "not good enough" for the rank when they're using the wrong metric to evaluate them by...

I think it is unfair to only include ozekis who never made it to Yokozuna - as this will include the years when they were in decline. How about including the records of Ozeki who went on to become Ys?

But this thread is about what to expect from an Ozeki. So why should I throw together the performances of Ozeki with the performances of later Yokozuna? And there's the rub. I think that many fans treat the words "Ozeki" and "later Yokozuna" synonymously. And that's where the expectation of 10 wins minimum etc. come from. But measuring two different breed with the same yardstick simply isn't fair, as the list above shows. No rikishi who peaked at Ozeki level comes even close to a 10 win minimum.

I could understand when fans are annoyed because neither Baruto nor Harumafuji nor Kotooshu has a reasonable chance to become Yokozuna. But as the table above shows, they are even above average as Ozeki. It might be difficult to believe, but it's also difficult to deny.

I think that many fans treat the words "Ozeki" and "later Yokozuna" synonymously. And that's where the expectation of 10 wins minimum etc. come from. But measuring two different breed with the same yardstick simply isn't fair, as the list above shows. No rikishi who peaked at Ozeki level comes even close to a 10 win minimum.

As I was saying elsewhere recently - if the expectations that many people hold of yokozuna and ozeki were actually realistic, we'd have three ranks above sekiwake, not just two, because it's unreasonable to treat the sekiwake rank as the proper station for those rikishi who go 9-6, 10-5, 8-7, 9-6, 10-5, etc. consistently that people like to consider unfit for the ozeki rank. Or rather, it's unreasonable as long as the sekiwake rank doesn't have a similar fail-safe mechanism as the ozeki rank's kadoban. Case in point, the "Kisenosato still needs to prove himself" argument despite his year-long 10 win average: If he got injured at sekiwake for something like a 5-2-8 record next time out, he's now at least 8 months away from the next time he can hope to attain the ozeki promotion (one basho as maegashira, three more in sanyaku). That's a large amount of time within the context of a developing makuuchi career.

People who insist on doing things this way need to accept that many "career ozeki" will end up spending the majority of their most productive years stuck in the joijin before they finally break through the 33-win barrier (even moreso in a yaocho-free/reduced environment), and stop complaining about how no ozeki ever shows any upside. You really shouldn't be surprised if rikishi who had to spend 25+ basho between sekiwake and M3 don't have enough left in the tank for a yokozuna push once they become ozeki. (The hope here is that Kise, having been a sanyaku mainstay since age 20, can still overcome that lengthy qualification period, unlike the Musoyamas of the world.) Of course, one can state that these rikishi shouldn't become ozeki in the first place, but that would make for an awfully empty rank in the long run. We might as well do away with the distinction between yokozuna and ozeki in that scenario.

I think it is unfair to only include ozekis who never made it to Yokozuna - as this will include the years when they were in decline. How about including the records of Ozeki who went on to become Ys?

But this thread is about what to expect from an Ozeki. So why should I throw together the performances of Ozeki with the performances of later Yokozuna? And there's the rub. I think that many fans treat the words "Ozeki" and "later Yokozuna" synonymously. And that's where the expectation of 10 wins minimum etc. come from. But measuring two different breed with the same yardstick simply isn't fair, as the list above shows. No rikishi who peaked at Ozeki level comes even close to a 10 win minimum.

Because those that become Yokozuna probably met the criteria expected of an Ozeki *when they were at that rank* - they just happened to surpass it. It was not me who set the standard that Ozeki are expected to get. By excluding the rikishi who *met* the expectations of Ozeki *and then some* - you automatically skew the results. By including the results of Ozeki in their *declining* years, you also skew the results.

Three further things to remember.....

1.) A Yokozuna is a glorified Ozeki, so technically you should also include Yokozuna results (yes, I know that these days, that is splitting hairs... so move on to the next point)...

2.) A Yokozuna would probably retire (I can't write 'will', due to the recentish Wakanohana), if he gets an MK, whereas an Ozeki won't (unless already kadoban, and even then, he probably won't).

3.) An Ozeki towards the end of his career might start posting 8-7s and 9-6s, so not perform as expected, yet happy to collect the pay cheque, so will continue to 'ganbarimasu'. This will skew his earlier ozeki results.

Basically by excluding any rikishi that went on to become Yokozuna, the 'elite' Ozeki have been excluded from the calculations, thereby leaving the average and below average Ozeki. This results in a lower than reality average record for rikishi that fought at the rank of Ozeki.

I hope my points are clear.

Edit: Rather than saying that an Ozeki should be getting 10 wins minimum, change it to a rikishi whilst at the rank of Ozeki should be getting 10 wins minimum, and then exclude any records of Ozeki once they are clearly in their decline, and then see how the figures look.

2nd edit: Of course once a standard is set for rikishi that reach the rank of Ozeki, some will under-perform and others will over-perform. By excluding those that over-perform (and went on to become Yokozuna), greater emphasis is given to those that underperformed in the 'average', giving a skewed result for the body of Ozekis as a whole, IMO, at least ....

3rd edit: (And then I will go to sleep ) A future Yokozuna is not promoted to Ozeki due to his expected career as a Yokozuna, but rather as an Ozeki and possibly onwards - and such rikishi are promoted because they are expected to get 10 wins or more from then onwards, more often or not, whatever their rank, so their Yokozuna records should be included (so please don't move on from point one *too quickly* )

2.) A Yokozuna would probably retire (I can't write 'will', due to the recentish Wakanohana), if he gets an MK, whereas an Ozeki won't (unless already kadoban, and even then, he probably won't).

I don't see what that has to do with the performance expectations of ozeki. You can get promoted with a makekoshi in jonokuchi; that's just as relevant (i.e. not very much) to how ozeki are handled. Different ranks, different rules.

3.) An Ozeki towards the end of his career might start posting 8-7s and 9-6s, so not perform as expected ...

You're begging the question here. Whether or not that's "less performance than expected" is the point of discussion here, it can't be asserted as a premise. Let's turn this around: An ozeki who posts a steady series of 8-7's and 9-6's doesn't even face the possibility of demotion (since he's never kadoban), let alone the actual event. How do you derive from that that the Kyokai "expects" a higher level of performance than 8-7's and 9-6's? Maybe you do, but that's something else altogether.

Obligatory reminder: The original kadoban regulations enforced demotion to sekiwake only after three makekoshi, not two. So there's evidence that if the standard is deemed too lenient, changing it is an actual possibility. Today's kadoban regulations have been in effect for over 40 years. Shouldn't that tell us something?

Basically by excluding any rikishi that went on to become Yokozuna, the 'elite' Ozeki have been excluded from the calculations, thereby leaving the average and below average Ozeki. This results in a lower than reality average record for rikishi that fought at the rank of Ozeki.

Fair enough. Average winning percentage by all rikishi ranked as ozeki since 1958, excluding all kyujo: .634 (9595-for-15130), 9.51 wins per 15. And if underperforming ozeki weren't allowed to leave the basho before the going gets really tough, it would be worse - count all absences after second-week withdrawals that came on MK-bound records (4-7-4 and such) as "virtual losses" because they would have faced yokozuna and ozeki for very likely defeat, and the average drops to 9.39 wins. And that still ignores the effect of early injury withdrawals (1-3-11 and the like), which are performances like anything else - and quite plentiful with over 50 times in 1066 basho, plus 24 full kyujo - and should certainly influence one's view of a "typical" ozeki performance even if it's not reflected in a pure winning percentage. All in all those 9595 wins in 1066 performed basho mean that the win column of the average ozeki showed...9.00 wins (9595/1066) at the end of the tournament.

So, can we now accept that career ozeki shouldn't be expected to be winning 10+ regularly? As YBF's table shows, the really strong ozeki performances typically lead to very quick (<10 basho) promotions to yokozuna, so they don't have a terribly large effect on the overall average. On the other hand, the decline phases that you believe skew the number improperly, that's simply part of what career ozeki are, like it or not. Seems silly to me to hold them to standards that arbitrarily redefine the actual average as "below average", but I'm clearly out of the mainstream here.

Basically the 11+ records cancel out all the MK records, and the meat of the historical ozeki performances is found dead-center at 10/9/8 wins. So, 10 wins is clearly already an above-average record, and while it's perhaps okay to set 10 wins (but certainly not "10+") as the target performance for any given basho, once you move beyond that and demand that 10 (or even 10+) wins should be achieved most of the time, you're clearly not talking about average expected performances anymore. Or in other words: While 10 wins makes for a good target, this does not imply that 9 wins are an underperformance or a disappointment. Much like a random meatgrinder rikishi may well be striving for a kachikoshi every time out, but will have delivered a perfectly acceptable performance if he finishes 6-9.

BTW, average winning percentage by ozeki, 1995-1998 (from right after Takanohana's promotion to yokozuna, to before Chiyotaikai's arrival as ozeki): .705, 10.58 wins. Yeah, not hard to see where all these misconceptions have originated.