Sunday, April 29, 2018

Are we doomed?

In a recent post, I mentioned that there is a growing body of belief that it is now too late to save ourselves from the disaster that is climate change. This little bit of news made working on a "solution" video incredibly difficult. I should have given examples of this school of thought but right on cue, The Guardian put up a story of someone who is firmly in the "We're doomed" category.

There is much to be valued in the case Mayer Hillman is trying to make. He is a social scientist and anyone looking at the sociology of climate change has more than ample reason to be alarmed. I am constantly distressed at the irrelevant efforts even gifted climate scientists engage in whenever they venture beyond shouted warnings. I shudder to think of the major heel-dragging when the financial sector is told they MUST fund the transition to the solar-powered future. I am amazed at the number of people with fancy degrees from fancy colleges who believe utter nonsense because they never really learned 7th-grade science or the difference between a big number and a very small one.

Hillman is mostly right. But there are reasons to think he maybe looking at the wrong people. There are MANY such reasons but two are most significant to me:

1) In spite of being woefully underfunded, the people who have been beavering away at making solar panels have performed a miracle. Most of the world's populations live in sunny climates. Cheap solar energy will transform their lives. Replacing the fire-based infrastructure in the more "developed" economies will be more difficult, but $.75 a watt with no fuel costs is a POWERFUL argument. Climate change is a Producer-Class problem and they have done well in this esoteric world. Energy is everything�we cannot solve any of the other environmental problems until we solve the energy dilemma. But now we have an incredibly important tool�a working replacement for fire itself.

2) I am incredibly impressed with the net-zero house my brother built for himself. Everything works and since the solar panels are on the backyard side of the roof, there is no way this solar house announces itself. The systems are virtually noiseless and there is plenty of hot water. But this outcome was far from easy. My brother brings a lot of skills to the table along with a lifetime of accumulating tools�he has LOTS of them and knows how to use and maintain them. He always reads the manuals. In short, he is far from being a run-of-the-mill DIY. He more resembles those frontier inventors like the Wright Brothers (and Thorstein Veblen's father who figured out ways to make harsh places like Minnesota habitable.) He subscribes to the first law of Peirce's Pragmatism�if something isn't working, then try something else. So out of the misinformation and boastful claims of the solar world, he was able to distill enough useful information to build his complicated house from parts he could buy online�and make it work. I am not suggesting that anyone could have done this�that is obviously NOT the case. But is demonstrates that it CAN be done and those who think the solar future will be painful and ugly are just wrong.

'We're doomed': Mayer Hillman on the climate reality no one else will dare mention

By Patrick Barkham, 26 Apr 2018

The 86-year-old social scientist says accepting the impending end of most life on Earth might be the very thing needed to help us prolong it

�We�re doomed,� says Mayer Hillman with such a beaming smile that it takes a moment for the words to sink in. �The outcome is death, and it�s the end of most life on the planet because we�re so dependent on the burning of fossil fuels. There are no means of reversing the process which is melting the polar ice caps. And very few appear to be prepared to say so.�

Hillman, an 86-year-old social scientist and senior fellow emeritus of the Policy Studies Institute, does say so. His bleak forecast of the consequence of runaway climate change, he says without fanfare, is his �last will and testament�. His last intervention in public life. �I�m not going to write anymore because there�s nothing more that can be said,� he says when I first hear him speak to a stunned audience at the University of East Anglia late last year.

From Malthus to the Millennium Bug, apocalyptic thinking has a poor track record. But when it issues from Hillman, it may be worth paying attention. Over nearly 60 years, his research has used factual data to challenge policymakers� conventional wisdom. In 1972, he criticised out-of-town shopping centres more than 20 years before the government changed planning rules to stop their spread. In 1980, he recommended halting the closure of branch line railways � only now are some closed lines reopening. In 1984, he proposed energy ratings for houses � finally adopted as government policy in 2007. And, more than 40 years ago, he presciently challenged society�s pursuit of economic growth.

When we meet at his converted coach house in London, his classic Dawes racer still parked hopefully in the hallway (a stroke and a triple heart bypass mean he is � currently � forbidden from cycling), Hillman is anxious we are not side-tracked by his best-known research, which challenged the supremacy of the car.

�With doom ahead, making a case for cycling as the primary mode of transport is almost irrelevant,� he says. �We�ve got to stop burning fossil fuels. So many aspects of life depend on fossil fuels, except for music and love and education and happiness. These things, which hardly use fossil fuels, are what we must focus on.�

While the focus of Hillman�s thinking for the last quarter-century has been on climate change, he is best known for his work on road safety. He spotted the damaging impact of the car on the freedoms and safety of those without one � most significantly, children � decades ago. Some of his policy prescriptions have become commonplace � such as 20mph speed limits � but we�ve failed to curb the car�s crushing of children�s liberty. In 1971, 80% of British seven- and eight-year-old children went to school on their own; today it�s virtually unthinkable that a seven-year-old would walk to school without an adult. As Hillman has pointed out, we�ve removed children from danger rather than removing danger from children � and filled roads with polluting cars on school runs. He calculated that escorting children took 900m adult hours in 1990, costing the economy �20bn each year. It will be even more expensive today.

Our society�s failure to comprehend the true cost of cars has informed Hillman�s view on the difficulty of combatting climate change. But he insists that I must not present his thinking on climate change as �an opinion�. The data is clear; the climate is warming exponentially. The UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change predicts that the world on its current course will warm by 3C by 2100. Recent revised climate modelling suggested a best estimate of 2.8C but scientists struggle to predict the full impact of the feedbacks from future events such as methane being released by the melting of the permafrost.

Hillman is amazed that our thinking rarely stretches beyond 2100. �This is what I find so extraordinary when scientists warn that the temperature could rise to 5C or 8C. What, and stop there? What legacies are we leaving for future generations? In the early 21st century, we did as good as nothing in response to climate change. Our children and grandchildren are going to be extraordinarily critical.�

Global emissions were static in 2016 but the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere was confirmed as beyond 400 parts per million, the highest level for at least three million years (when sea levels were up to 20m higher than now). Concentrations can only drop if we emit no carbon dioxide whatsoever, says Hillman. �Even if the world went zero-carbon today that would not save us because we�ve gone past the point of no return.�Advertisement

Although Hillman has not flown for more than 20 years as part of a personal commitment to reducing carbon emissions, he is now scornful of individual action which he describes as �as good as futile�. By the same logic, says Hillman, national action is also irrelevant �because Britain�s contribution is minute. Even if the government were to go to zero carbon it would make almost no difference.�

Instead, says Hillman, the world�s population must globally move to zero emissions across agriculture, air travel, shipping, heating homes � every aspect of our economy � and reduce our human population too. Can it be done without a collapse of civilisation? �I don�t think so,� says Hillman. �Can you see everyone in a democracy volunteering to give up flying? Can you see the majority of the population becoming vegan? Can you see the majority agreeing to restrict the size of their families?�

Hillman doubts that human ingenuity can find a fix and says there is no evidence that greenhouse gases can be safely buried. But if we adapt to a future with less � focusing on Hillman�s love and music � it might be good for us. �And who is �we�?� asks Hillman with a typically impish smile. �Wealthy people will be better able to adapt but the world�s population will head to regions of the planet such as northern Europe which will be temporarily spared the extreme effects of climate change. How are these regions going to respond? We see it now. Migrants will be prevented from arriving. We will let them drown.�

A small band of artists and writers, such as Paul Kingsnorth�s Dark Mountain project, have embraced the idea that �civilisation� will soon end in environmental catastrophe but only a few scientists � usually working beyond the patronage of funding bodies, and nearing the end of their own lives � have suggested as much. Is Hillman�s view a consequence of old age, and ill health? �I was saying these sorts of things 30 years ago when I was hale and hearty,� he says.

Hillman accuses all kinds of leaders � from religious leaders to scientists to politicians � of failing to honestly discuss what we must do to move to zero-carbon emissions. �I don�t think they can because society isn�t organised to enable them to do so. Political parties� focus is on jobs and GDP, depending on the burning of fossil fuels.�

Without hope, goes the truism, we will give up. And yet optimism about the future is wishful thinking, says Hillman. He believes that accepting that our civilisation is doomed could make humanity rather like an individual who recognises he is terminally ill. Such people rarely go on a disastrous binge; instead, they do all they can to prolong their lives.

Can civilisation prolong its life until the end of this century? �It depends on what we are prepared to do.� He fears it will be a long time before we take proportionate action to stop climatic calamity. �Standing in the way is capitalism. Can you imagine the global airline industry being dismantled when hundreds of new runways are being built right now all over the world? It�s almost as if we�re deliberately attempting to defy nature. We�re doing the reverse of what we should be doing, with everybody�s silent acquiescence, and nobody�s batting an eyelid.� more