NBA History of Blowouts, New Record in 2011-12?

09Jan

On December 28th in one of the e-mails my friend Leszczur mentioned “we are going to see a lot of random NBA scores this year” to which I automatically replied “every year there are blowouts” but it immediately got me thinking about them. Will this season actually lead to more blowouts than usual?
What exactly is the usual number? What happened in the previous shortened season?.
I’ve waited a week or so for more data and here we are…

I defined blowout as 15 or more point differential and using all scores in the NBA history from basketball-reference.com I compiled a historical perspective… note that 2012 includes only 125 games played so far.

% of NBA Games ended with 15+ point blowout

Well, in this small but current sample 2011-12 season is literally off the charts in terms of number of blowouts!
But it is early so it should improve… especially when season in 1999 wasn’t extraordinary in this regard at all. So maybe we just have to patiently wait for a better part of the season…

What’s more, the biggest swings happened around the time of big changes in the NBA landscape so it seems to be a pretty good measure of overall [but relative] talent level around the league, no?

Average for all seasons since 1947 is 26,34% and in the last 20 regular seasons it was a similar 26,22%.

That was a league-wide view so let’s switch it to teams’ perspective.
Here are some single-season extremes for games with point differential of 15 or more which resulted in a win:

Team

Season

Won15+

Games

Win%

Team

Season

Won15+

Games

Milwaukee Bucks

1971

37

82

45,12

Cleveland Cavaliers

2011

0

82

Chicago Bulls

1996

35

82

42,68

Portland Trail Blazers

2006

0

82

Chicago Bulls

1997

34

82

41,46

New Orleans Hornets

2005

0

82

New York Knicks

1970

33

82

40,24

Toronto Raptors

2003

0

82

Los Angeles Lakers

1972

33

82

40,24

Los Angeles Clippers

2000

0

82

Boston Celtics

1962

32

80

40,00

Vancouver Grizzlies

1999

0

50

Milwaukee Bucks

1972

32

82

39,02

Vancouver Grizzlies

1996

0

82

Washington Capitols

1947

23

60

38,33

Dallas Mavericks

1993

0

82

Boston Celtics

1986

31

82

37,80

Houston Rockets

1983

0

82

Chicago Bulls

1992

31

82

37,80

Baltimore Bullets

1952

0

66

Seattle SuperSonics

1994

31

82

37,80

Milwaukee Hawks

1952

0

66

Chicago Bulls

1972

30

82

36,59

Providence Steam Rollers

1948

0

48

San Antonio Spurs

2005

30

82

36,59

Pittsburgh Ironmen

1947

0

60

Philadelphia 76ers

1968

29

82

35,37

18 tied with 1 such performance in 82 games

Milwaukee Bucks

1974

29

82

35,37

Milwaukee Bucks

1986

29

82

35,37

Phoenix Suns

1989

29

82

35,37

Phoenix Suns

1990

29

82

35,37

Boston Celtics

1960

26

75

34,67

Los Angeles Lakers

1973

28

82

34,15

Boston Celtics

1980

28

82

34,15

Milwaukee Bucks

1981

28

82

34,15

Portland Trail Blazers

1991

28

82

34,15

Seattle SuperSonics

1995

28

82

34,15

It could be a very crude way to discuss some all-time great teams… if you didn’t notice there’s only one team from last decade so that’s another reason to doubt claims that NBA has a problem with competitive balance…

Here are some single-season extremes for games with point differential of 15 or more which resulted in a loss:

Team

Season

Lost15+

Games

Lost%

Team

Season

Lost15+

Games

Dallas Mavericks

1993

44

82

53,66

Utah Jazz

1997

0

82

Providence Steam Rollers

1948

22

48

45,83

Phoenix Suns

1983

1

82

Los Angeles Clippers

2000

35

82

42,68

Los Angeles Lakers

2009

1

82

Denver Nuggets

1998

35

82

42,68

Chicago Bulls

2011

1

82

Denver Nuggets

1950

25

62

40,32

Portland Trail Blazers

2000

1

82

Philadelphia 76ers

1973

33

82

40,24

Detroit Pistons

2004

1

82

Los Angeles Clippers

1989

33

82

40,24

Boston Celtics

1973

1

82

Cleveland Cavaliers

1971

32

82

39,02

Boston Celtics

2008

1

82

Miami Heat

1989

32

82

39,02

Portland Trail Blazers

1991

1

82

Houston Rockets

1983

31

82

37,80

Boston Celtics

1986

1

82

Los Angeles Clippers

1987

31

82

37,80

Chicago Bulls

1992

1

82

Denver Nuggets

1991

31

82

37,80

Milwaukee Bucks

1972

1

82

Golden State Warriors

2000

31

82

37,80

Los Angeles Lakers

1972

1

82

Los Angeles Clippers

2009

31

82

37,80

Chicago Bulls

1996

1

82

Atlanta Hawks

2005

30

82

36,59

Philadelphia Warriors

1947

1

60

Chicago Packers

1962

29

80

36,25

Miami Heat

1999

1

50

Chicago Bulls

1999

18

50

36,00

San Antonio Spurs

1999

1

50

Wow, Utaz Jazz in 1996-97 was the only team in history which didn’t lose a game by 15 or more points?
I didn’t know that so that’s a great bonus curiosity ;-)

Good point, thanks for the comment!
Because of it I checked blowouts in the first 15 days and first 125 games of each season [which is sample I’ve used here] and 2011/12 was 6th and 3rd all-time respectively… but nothing similar happened in the last 4 decades so while you are right it doesn’t look as badly as compared to full years of data, IMHO there’s a sizeable chance we will see a new record this year or at least something close to 1972.

I have few comments since my nick was brought up in your post (though I was aware of it).
By saying that we will see a lot of randomness in game results I meant result that is not really predictable and sort of out of whack. Like the Bulls loosing to Warriors in their second game, or the Heat also loosing to Warriors (hmmm…)
Blowouts are not always a random endpoint of the game and often are result of the huge disparity between teams.
And second – let’s compare apples to apples so “ek” is right – analysis of the first months would be more appropriate.