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Why Wisconsin May Be the Most Important Primary Yet

For nerds like Stumper who monitor the wires for fluctuations in the approval ratings of Laura Bush's hairstyle, Gallup's latest national tracking pollis almost enough to induce a state of statistical shock. Not only
does it show Barack Obama leading Hillary Clinton 49 percent to 42
percent overall, but suggests for the first time that eight straight
losses--and the "Frontrunner Obama?" headlines
that followed--have had a disastrously deleterious effect on the New
York senator's natural coalition: Latinos, older voters and women.

To
wit. After Super Tuesday, Clinton led Obama nearly two-to-one (63-32)
among Hispanic Democratic voters. But now Obama actually leads among
Hispanics, with 50 percent support to Clinton's 46. Women show similar
slippage, dipping from 53-38 Clinton on Feb.
8 to 46-45 Clinton today. And middle-aged voters are even worse,
plunging from from 49-42 Clinton to
51-42 Obama. Is nothing sacred?

Team Clinton will likely dismiss such dismal national figures as irrelevant. After all, they'd say, we're fighting this battle state by state, not coast to coast.
But the national numbers do matter at this point. Yes, there's not
always a clear line between the big picture and
what's happening on the ground--especially when a campaign is actually,
you know, reaching out to local voters on TV, radio and the stump. But
the loss of support among Hispanics is enough to sink Clinton in Texas,
and significant drops among women and middle-aged voters would be
spell doom in Ohio. What's more, there's nothing but time between now
and March 4--meaning that today's face-off in Wisconsin could be more
important (and determinative) than anyone expected.

Here's
why. If Obama wins tonight (and takes his birth state of Hawaii), he'll
wrap up a perfect 10-0 post-Super Tuesday sweep. The "Frontrunner
Obama?" headlines will harden into conventional wisdom, and whatever
impact the coverage of his victories (not to mention the victories
themselves) has had on Democrats nationwide will only intensify.
Without any contests between now and March 4, there won't be
much--barring an Obama meltdown--to reverse what we're already seeing
in the Gallup numbers. In that case, there's no reason to think that
Clinton's key supporters won't keep drifting to the man with the Big
'Mo--making it difficult (if such seepage does trickle down) to keep
up in Texas and Ohio.

On the other hand, if Clinton wins
Wisconsin, all bets are off. That would shock the pundits, rewrite the
headlines and instantly brake Obama's momentum. More importantly, it
would likely convince the women, older folks and Latinos who supported
Clinton as recently as Super Tuesday to take a second look--meaning
that instead of spending the last two weeks of February feebly plugging
holes in her sinking ship, Clinton could actually start shoring it
up for the stormy days ahead.