ICC Has Postpned Uhuru’s Trial; What Next?

Today’s decision by the International Criminal Court (ICC) to postpone President Uhuru Kenyatta’s trial to February 2014 in response to his application is good news for him but bad news for his deputy William Ruto.

Good news for Uhuru because it gives him more time to work on getting a deferral from the UN but bad news for Ruto because he could be nailed by then, even though I doubt he would be as I have always maintained.

One can never be absolutely be absolutely certain of the outcome a trial until it’s over, however.

There are many cases where there’s even unanimity among the experts that someone walks free following a trial but is nailed instead and vice versa.

As for Uhuru, this is all good news and let me posit here for the first time something that I think could happen and that’s the UN Security Council–or at least the more influential members of it on this (read the US) can use Uhuru’s application pending with the court and the basis for this postponement as a vehicle to get out of the difficult position it finds itself between going against the wishes of the entire AU or granting a deferral which could also be problematic as it would set a precedent Al Bashir could also exploit–a no-no even among those members who are sympathetic to Uhuru’s case for a deferral.

Under this scenario, the influential member could have the ICC basically directed to grant Uhuru’s application and have the case against him dismissed on that basis.

This will give Uhuru and AU what they want without opening a door for Al Bashir to get the same relief while ensuring continuing viability of the ICC, which is what the UN wants.