In a previous post I have shared the “gaming” side of searching for patterns trying to identify similarities and differences between images representing meteorological variables.

Climatic events can be forecast with more or less accuracy by applying statistical analyses and modelling trying to identify the highest probable scenario to be found in our weather for short, medium and long terms.

The variables contemplated, with their synergies and interrelations, are so many that the effectiveness of weather forecast reach its highest in the short term and the uncertainty increases with the distance in time between the moment of calculation and the day for which the conditions are being forecast.

One of the reasons behind such uncertainty is that the atmosphere is an open environment in which climatic events form and move freely, gaining strength or dissipating its energy as the result of interacting with their surroundings.

In Oct 2014, researchers led by Masato Mori of the Atmosphere and Ocean Research Institute, the University of Tokyo, ran multiple simulations linking the observed decline in sea ice in the Arctic since 2004 with an increased probability of the occurrence of persistent atmospheric circulation patterns, known as blocking patterns. A study published online in Nature Geoscience.

They discovered that atmospheric blocking patterns, leading to cold air transport and severe winter conditions occurred twice as often in the low sea ice scenario model runs. This approach showed that as a result of sea ice reduction in the Arctic, Barents and Kara seas, the probability of severe winters has more than doubled across Eurasia.

This new study agrees with previous work that the decline in sea ice cover in the Barents-Kara Sea area in early winter has led in recent years to unusually cold winters throughout Eurasia, including the UK, according to Colin Summerhayes, Emeritus Associate of the Scott Polar Research Institute in the UK.

Summerhayes explains that the warming of the atmosphere associated with the absence of sea ice weakens the high level winds of the polar vortex. That in turn leads to meandering of the jet stream, with the meanders becoming stuck which is what meteorologists call ‘blocking’. This pull cold air south out of the Arctic, and because the system is stuck in position, the cold air supply can last quite a while.

The rise in blocking patterns correlates closely with the extra heating being delivered to the Arctic by climate change, according to the research which is published in the journal Proceedings of the National Academies of Science (PNAS). Coumou and his colleagues argue there are good physical reasons to think there is a causal link, because the jet streams are driven by the difference in temperature between the poles and the equator. As the Arctic is warming more quickly than lower latitudes, that temperature difference is declining, providing less energy for the jet stream and its meanders, which are called Rossby waves.

Prof Ted Shepherd, a climate scientist at the University of Reading, UK, but not involved in the work, said the link between blocking patterns and extreme weather was very well established. He added that the increasing frequency shown in the new work indicated climate change could bring rapid and dramatic changes to weather, on top of a gradual heating of the planet. “Circulation changes can have much more non-linear effects. They may do nothing for a while, then there might be some kind of regime change.”

I believe that these new studies are starting to identify possible alterations in atmospheric circulation that would affect the probability for climatic events to form and move in the North Hemisphere. The study of the origin behind such behaviour have led me to propose for open discussion the hypothesis of facing an increase in atmospheric energy content due to increases in CO2 and Water vapour. An increase in the energy been contained in the atmosphere would lead to a decrease in the differential energy gradients between atmospheric surroundings and weather systems. Ultimately, weather systems would not dissipate easily their energy into the surrounding atmosphere. You can find a more in depth discussion here and here.

In such scenario, how much would it be affected the probability of seeing same climatic events (Low and High pressures) happening at same locations in the Hemisphere but in different days?

What would it be the probability of seeing “two Low pressure events” happening at the same time, in same locations of the North Hemisphere in “two different days” separated by 8 months? Sure it is not such a big deal, just curious.

“Two Low pressure events” happening at the same time, in same locations of the North Hemisphere in “two different days” separated by 8 months. T and Wind direction at 700 hPa 4th Feb 2014 and 8th Oct 2014.

And then, what would it be the probability of seeing “two Low pressure events” happening at the sametime in same locations of the North Hemisphere in “threedifferent days” separated by 8th months and 3 months?

And the probability of seeing “three Low pressure events” happening at the same time, in same locations of the North Hemisphere in “two different days” separated by 3 months?

“Two Low pressure events” happening at the same time, in same locations of the North Hemisphere in “three different days” separated by 8 months and 3 months. T and Wind direction at 700 hPa 4th Feb 2014, 8th Oct 2014 and 14th Jan 2015. “Three Low pressure events” happening at the same time in same locations of the North Hemisphere in “two different days” separated by 3 months. T and Wind direction at 700 hPa 8th Oct 2014 and 14th Jan 2015.

Share this:

Like this:

LikeLoading...

Related

About Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.

Citing This Site
"Title", published online "Month"+"Year", retrieved on "Month""Day", "Year" from http://www.diegofdezsevilla.wordpress.com. By Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.
More guidance on citing this web as a source can be found at NASA webpage: http://solarsystem.nasa.gov/bibliography/citations#!
DOIs can be generated on demand by request at email: d.fdezsevilla(at)gmail.com for those publications missing at the ResearchGate profile vinculated with this project.
**Author´s profile: Born in 1974. Bachelor in General Biology, Masters degree "Licenciado" in Environmental Sciences (2001, Spain). PhD in Aerobiology (2007, UK). Lived, acquired training and worked in Spain, UK, Germany and Poland. I have shared the outcome from my work previous to 2013 as scientific speaker in events held in those countries as well as in Switzerland and Finland.
After 12 years performing research and working in institutions linked with environmental research and management, in 2013 I found myself in a period of transition searching for a new position or funding to support my own line of research. In the current competitive scenario, in order to demonstrate my capacities instead of just moving my cv waiting for my next opportunity to arrive, I decided to invest my energy and time in opening my own line of research sharing it in this blog.
In March 2017 the budget reserved for this project has ended and its weekly basis time frame discontinued until new forms of economic and/or institutional support are incorporated into the project.
The value of the data and the original nature of the research presented in this platform and at LinkedIn has proved to be worthy of consideration by the scientific community as well as for publication in scientific journals. However, without a position as member of an institution, it becomes very challenging to be published. I hope that this handicap do not overshadow the value of my achievements and that the Intellectual Property Rights generated with the license of attribution attached are respected and considered by the scientist involved in similar lines of research. **Any comment and feedback aimed to be constructive is welcome as well as any approach exploring professional opportunities to be part of.**
In this blog I publish pieces of research focused on addressing relevant environmental questions. Furthermore, I try to break the barrier that academic publications very often offer isolating scientific findings from the general public. In that way I address those topics which I am familiar with, thanks to my training in environmental research, making them available throughout my posts. (see "Framework and Timeline" for a complete index).
At this moment, 2018, I am living in Spain with no affiliation attachments. Free to relocate geographically worldwide. If you feel that I could be a contribution to your institution, team and projects don´t hesitate in contact me at d.fdezsevilla (at) gmail.com or consult my profile at LinkedIn, ResearchGate and Academia.edu. Also, I'd appreciate information about any opportunity that you might know and believe it could match with my aptitudes. The conclusions and ideas expressed in each post as part of my own creativity are part of my Intellectual Portfolio and are protected by Intellectual Property Laws. Licensed under Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial conditions. In citing my work from this website, be sure to include the date of access.
(c)Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD, 2018. Filling in or Finding Out the gaps around. Publication accessed 20YY-MM-DD at https://diegofdezsevilla.wordpress.com/

Follow Blog via Email

Meta

Feedback

Your feedback is much appreciated.
I want to use this blog to increase the level of exposure of my research and enhance discussion in a multidisciplinary and open review in order to scrutinise its validity throughout the interaction between proactive thinkers.
The only way to overcome limitations is by joining the potential of different mind sets, knowledge and points of view. So I treat every contribution as positive as long as it is constructive.
Comments only require a name and an email address. There is no need to be a blogger or manage a web site. Comments are not published immediately since all comments follow moderation in order to check genuicity and avoid spam. Mastering sarcasm is not a skill I would appreciate. You can also contact me: d.fdezsevilla(at)gmail.com Diego Fdez-Sevilla.

Welcome.

Let's introduce ourselves to each other. You know that I am Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD. author of this blog, and I know where you are, your location and institution/organization.
I keep constantly looking into new developments and info in related topics. Since we both are interested in the same subjects, I would appreciate that you leave a comment or use attribution to my work when you find it influencing yours. Either through inspiration, data or methodology. It is sad seeing work being produced in locations by institutions tracked from your visits mimicking parts of my own work without recognition. So please, get involved in my effort and join me, don´t exclude me from what it should be a team's effort. Each one of us choose what we want to be recognised for. And I will expose to the community any misuse of any part of my work.
Profile at ResearchGate
-/#/-
CV at SlideShare

Attribution (copyright)

NOW THAT WE KNOW EACH OTHER, REMEMBER, This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License.
Attribution — You must give appropriate credit, provide a link to the license, and indicate if changes were made. You may do so in any reasonable manner, but not in any way that suggests the licensor endorses you or your use.

High Definition Earth Viewing (HDEV). International Space Station (ISS) on the Columbus External Facility.

Spanish Metereorological Agency

Centers visiting diegofdezsevilla.wordpress.com

From Academia__________
International Ocean Discovery Program (IODP)/Texas A&M University
Academic Computer Centre CYFRONET AGH
American University
Arizona State University
Binghamton University
Boston University
Brown University
California State University, Long Beach
California State University, Northridge
California State University, Office of the Chancel
Canterbury Christ Church University
Central Methodist University
Central Queensland University/CQU
Charite - Universitaetsmedizin Berlin
Charles University
CITI2 - Universite Rene DESCARTES
CKPOLSL - Silesian University of Technology, Compu
Columbia University
Comenius University Bratislava
Consortium GARR
Cornell University
CSU Monterey Bay
Czech Academy of Sciences
Dalhousie University
Danmarks Tekniske Universitet
Dartmouth College
Duke University
Eastern Washington University
Ecole des Mines de Douai
Edinburgh University
Erasmus University Rotterdam (EUR)
Fairleigh Dickinson University
Federal University Oye-EKiti
Florida State University
Georgia Department of Education
Gottfried Wilhelm Leibniz Universitaet Hannover
Hanyang University
Harper Adams University College
Heinrich-Heine-Universitaet Duesseldorf
Humboldt State University
Humboldt-Universitaet zu Berlin
Indiana State University
Iowa State University
IUFM Université de Nantes
Jawaharlal Nehru University
Kangnung National UNIV.
Karolinska Institutet
Katholieke Universiteit Leuven
Kazimierz Wielki University in Bydgoszcz
KENET-University of Nairobi
Kennesaw State University
Korea Institute of Science and Technology Informat
Korea University
Kyoto University
Lamont Doherty Geological Observatory
LAN University of Vienna
Lancaster University Campus Network
Lancaster University Network Services Limited
Landmark-university
Leeds University
Liepajas Universitate
Loughborough University
Louisiana State University
Ludwig-Maximilians-Universitaet Muenchen
Lulea technical university
Maharishi Dayanand University Rohtak
Mahidol University, Thailand
McGill University
McMaster University
Michigan Technological University
Middle East Technical University / Orta Dogu Tekni
Middle East Technical University(METU)
Mississippi State University
Moulton College
National Taiwan University of Science and Technology/MOEC
Navy Network Information Center (NNIC)
Niagara University
Northeastern Hill University
NYU Hospitals Center
Oregon State University
Oxford University
Portland State University
Pptik - Universitas Gadjah Mada
Purdue University
Queensland University of Technology
Reseau de l'Universite de langues, lettres et comm
Rheinische Friedrich-Wilhelms-Universitaet Bonn
Royal College of Art
Sacramento County Office of Education
Saginaw ISD
Saint John's University - College of Saint Benedic
San Diego State University
Slovak University of Agriculture
Southwestern University
Staffordshire University
State College of Florida, Manatee-Sarasota
State University of New York at Buffalo
Studierendenwerk Bonn AoeR
SUNY Geneseo Computer Center/ State University of New York at Geneseo
Swansea University
Swinburne University of Technology/SUT
Taiwan Academic Network
Technische Universitaet Darmstadt
Texas A&M University
Texas Tech University
The registrar Annamalai University
The University of Texas Health Science Center at H
Tohoku University
TU Berlin, campus network
Universi School
Universidad Complutense de Madrid
Universidad de Alicante
Universidad de Cadiz
Universidad de Sevilla
Universidad de Valencia
Universidad de Vigo
Universidad de Zaragoza
Universidad del Pais Vasco / Euskal Herriko Uniber
Universidad del Valle
Universidad Nacional de Buenos Aires
Universidad Politecnica de Cartagena
Universidade de Aveiro
Universidade do Porto
Universidade Federal de Santa Catarina
Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul
Universita' degli Studi di Firenze
Universita degli Studi di Roma Tor Vergata
Universita di Napoli Federico II
Universitaet Bayreuth
Universitaet Hohenheim
Universitaet Kassel
Universitaet zu Koeln
Universitas Negeri Surabaya
Universitat de Barcelona
Universitat Jaume I
Universite Blaise Pascal
Universite de Bordeaux - DSI
Universite de Liege (ULg)
Universite de Reims Champagne-Ardenne - URCA
Universite Paris XII Val-de-Marne
Universite Pierre et Marie Curie
Universiteit Twente
Universiti Sains Malaysia (USM)
University at Albany, State University of New York
University College Dublin
University College Falmouth
University of British Columbia
University of California, Irvine
University of California, Riverside
University of California, San Diego
University of California, Santa Barbara
University of California, Santa Cruz
University of Cincinnati
University of East Anglia
University of Eastern Finland
University of Education, Winneba
University of Exeter
University of Illinois
University of Innsbruck
University of Leicester
University of Maryland
University of Michigan
University of Mississippi Medical Center
University of New Hampshire
University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill
University of North Carolina at Wilmington
University of Oklahoma
University of Oregon
University of Ottawa
University of Portsmouth
University of Reading
University Of South Florida
University of South Wales
University of Southern California
University of Stirling
University of Tartu/Hariduse Infotehnoloogia Sihtasutus
University of Technology, Sydney
University of Texas at Arlington
University of the South Pacific
University of the Western Cape
University of Toronto
University of Victoria
University of Virginia
University of Wisconsin Madison
University of York
Universtitaet Bern
Univerza v Ljubljani
Univision
USTANOVA-STUDENTSKI-STANDARD-NET
Utah Education Network
Valdosta State University
Virginia Community College System
Wageningen Universiteit
Western State College
Westfaelische Wilhelms-Universitaet, ZIV
William De Ferrers School
Worcester State University
Yale University
York University
From Corporation_____
Allergan
Bayer Business Services GmbH
Buhler AG
Citigroup
GIP Messinstrumente GmbH/Grimm-Aerosol Technik GmbH & Co. KG
Infineon Technologies AG
Intel Corporation
L-OREAL HAARKOSMETIK UND PARFUEMERIEN GMBH & CO.
Marriott International, Ic
MTS Allstream
Ratcliff Consulting Ltd
Sanofi Aventis group SA
Television Internacional, S.A. de C.V.
ZON Tv Cabo
From Goverment Administration_____
Administracion Nacional de Telecomunicaciones
Administratia Nationala de Meteorologie RA
Agencia Estatal de Meteorologia
AssociaÃ§Ã£o Rede Nacional de Ensino e Pesquisa
Bureau of Sanitation- Information and Control Systems Division (ICSD)
California Technology Agency/ Teala Data Center
China Science And Technology Network
Consejo Superior de Investigaciones CSIC
Corporacion Nacional De Telecomunicaciones - Cnt E/Red Interministerial
European Space Research and Technology Centre (ESTEC)
German Aerospace Center (Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt; DLR)
Gobierno de Navarra
Government Integrated Telecommunications Network Sdn Bhd (Malaysia)
Instituto Politecnico Nacional
Lepida S.p.A.
Goverment Administration
Luxembourg Institute of Science and Technology
Ministerio de Medio Ambiente y Medio Rural y Marino. CP-ATOCHA
Ministry of Public Administration/Republika Slovenija Ministrstvo za javno upravo
National Health Service
National Research Council (Cnr)/ Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche
New York State Department of Health
NHS UK
NOAA
NOAA-Boulder
Nsw Department Of Health
Punjabi Univ/NKN Core Network
Scottish Borders Council
Swiss Federal Institute of Technology Zurich
Swiss Federation represented by Federal Office of Information Technology, Systems and Telecommunication FOITT
The Netherlands Institute of Ecology
U.S. Department of Energy
UK Meteorological Office
United Nations Logistics Base
Washington State Board for Community & Technical C
From Institute Of Technology & Science______
“O.M.Marzeyev Institute for Hygiene and Medical Ecology, Academy of Medical Sciences of Ukraine”
Alfred-Wegener-Institut, Helmholtz-Zentrum fuer Po
Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laborato
ATRIUM, l'Environnement Numérique Educatif des lycées
Birla Institute Of Technology & Science
ComClark Network & Technology Corp.
Commissariat a l'Energie Atomique
Computer Network Information Center
Ecole des Mines de Nantes
Ecole Normale Superieure de Lyon
ETHZ, Swiss Federal Institute of Technology Zurich
European Space Agency (ESA)
Forschungszentrum Juelich GmbH
Fortech s.r.o.
Hadara Technologies Private Shareholding Company/ Hadara
Helmholtz-Zentrum Geesthacht Zentrum fuer Materia
Helmholtz-Zentrum Potsdam Deutsches GeoForschungsZ
Institut National d'Agronomie Paris-Grignon
Institute of Atmospheric Physics RAS
Leibniz Institute for Tropospheric Research/ Verein zur Foerderung eines Deutschen Forschungsne
Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Max Planck Institute for Meteorology-German Climate Computing Centre (Deutsches Klimarechenzentrum, DKRZ)
Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle
Philips Research Eindhoven- Philips Campus-ICT
Punjabi Univ/NKN Core Network
Rensselaer Hartford Graduate Center
Rothamsted Research Institute
RRM - Reseau de la Recherche a Marseille
Sant Longowal Institute of Engineering and Technol
Scientific-Production Enterprise Information Techn
The MITRE Corporation
Villefranche Oceanographic Laboratory
Weizmann Institute of Science
From Research and Education_________
Amman Baccalaureate School
Assiniboine Community College
Baptist Healthcare System
Bibb County Schools
Bonn International School e.V.
Burnley College
Canadian Department of Education
Canterbury College
Catawba County Schools
Cherry Creek School District #5
Chesterfield County Public School
Clark County School District
Clinton Public Schools
College of Eastern Utah
Contra Costa County Office of Education
Cornwall College
Covina Valley Unified School District
Des Moines Public Schools
Edmonton Public School Board, District No. 7
Fairfax County Public Schools
Forest Hills Public Schools
Hogeschool West-Vlaanderen
Houston Independent School District
Humble Independent School District
iiNet Limited
Indiana Department of Education
Isd# 625 Saint Paul Public Schools
KWR Watercycle Research Institute
Linfield College.
Los Angeles Unified School District
Macomb Intermediate School District
Madison-Oneida Board of Cooperative Educational Services (BOCES)
Marist College
Mecklenburg County Public Schools
Middle Michigan Network for Educational Telecommunications/Merit Network
Middlebury College
Montville High School
National Research Council of Canada
Network for Learning
New York City Public Schools
Non state educational institution Educational Scientific and Experimental Center of Moscow In
Norfolk Public Schools Administration
North Carolina Research and Education Network
Nueva School
Oak Grove School District
Oklahoma State Regents for Higher Education
Ontario School District
Ottawa Carleton District School Board
Peel District School Board
Piedmont Unified School District
Rectorat de l'academie de Nancy Metz
Research Organization of Information and Systems
Rhodes College
Saint Stephen’s College
Salem-Keizer Public Schools
Santa Clara County Office of Education
SCBACB - Aiken County School District - AGS LAN
Seobu District Office of Education in Seoul
Snow College
Socorro Independent School District
St Stephen's School
Suffield Public Schools
Sunderland City Council/Derwent Hill Outdoor Centre
The German Cancer Research Center (Deutsches Krebsforschungszentrum, DKFZ)
The Lawrenceville School
Toronto District School Board
Township High School District 21
Tri-County Computer Services Association
Ventura County Office of Education
Wake County Public School System
Washington School Information Processing Cooperati
Wayne Township School
Wofford College
Wyke College

Advertisements

Follow Blog via Email

Enter your email address to follow this blog and receive notifications of new posts by email.