What would it feel like to live in the cloud?

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The past few years have seen the rapid and inexorable shift of computer services towards a centralized, cloud-based topology. This about-turn, which seems at odds with the decentralized nature of the internet, has been propagated by faster internet connections, and the recent development (and massive popularity) of mobile, smartphone-powered computing. Cloud computing is cost effective, much easier to maintain than disparate software and servers, and most importantly it enables the ubiquitous, cross-platform experiences we’ve grown to love, and are now actively demanding from software and hardware vendors.

Understandably, as we become more reliant on cloud-based apps and devices, we are entrusting more and more data with the likes of Microsoft, Amazon, and Google. A few years ago you might’ve stored your email in the cloud — today, in the form of Facebook, Google’s arsenal of web services, or Apple’s iCloud, the cloud knows your identity, your movements, your hobbies, your Angry Birds max score, what your family looks like, and more.

This isn’t a story about the terrors of a centralized database that can be interrogated and abused by a police state, though — that’s another tale for another time. Instead we’re going to look a few years into the future, to a technological epoch where everything you do online is stored in a single cloud. If you wear a tinfoil hat, take it off and suspend your fears for as long as it takes to read the rest of this story.

What it means to be completely cloud-based

If cloud computing, social networking, and web apps continue on their current trajectory, it is not too outlandish to suppose that at some point in the future, Facebook (or Google, or Microsoft) will be your sole online repository. Similar to how Windows 8 lets you log in with your cloud-based Live ID, there will come a time when you will be able to access any cloud-connected device or service using a single name and password. This will herald an era of fantastical ease-of-use, but in return your identity provider will be able to fashion an incredibly accurate model of your online activity.

Now, let’s look at the completeness of that virtual model. If we start with Facebook, which already stores a vast amount of data about you, and then gave it your online purchases, access to all of your web forums, IM chat logs, and email, your activity in World of Warcraft and Call of Duty, and so on, this cloud-based virtual model would very closely resemble the real you. There are still a few real-world activities that don’t go through some kind of cloud-based identity provider — like going out for drinks with friends — but how much do you think could be inferred from the photos that you inevitably upload to Facebook? Better yet, do you really think that we’re that far away from always-on, captured-by-your-smartphone video and audio lifestreaming?

In other words, not very far from now, there will be a digital avatar of your real self sitting on a hard drive in a data center. This digital avatar won’t have a personality — we’re a long way from that Judgment Day future — but it will be functionally very accurate. Your avatar won’t be able to chat up girls or boys on your behalf, but it will be able to do your weekly shopping and order the latest Terry Pratchett book. It won’t be able to attend a school recital or business meeting on your behalf, but your avatar will make sure that you, your partner, and your kids have everything they need when they leave the house in the morning.

Isn’t that a German word?

In short, being fully in the cloud will be a bit like having a digital doppelgänger. As long as you don’t task it with doing anything sentient — anything that requires ethical or moral differentiation — your gormless twin should be capable of just about any everyday task. Check your bank balance, book cinema tickets, buy a birthday present, update your Facebook wall — really, almost anything that you do online, your silicon simulacrum will be able to take your place. Furthermore, if you think you can do a lot of things online today, just imagine what the web might look like in 5 or 10 years — and it’s a feedback loop! The more you do online, the more your digital avatar learns about you and the closer it comes to being a perfect carbon copy. In 10 years, short of holding a face-to-face conversation, there might be very little that your digital self can’t do.

I know you’ve taken off your tinfoil hat, but we should still address a very basic concern: This concept of a digital doppelgänger doesn’t necessitate that the entire interweb be owned by Facebook. You’ll still be able to choose your identity provider, or even use your home computer if your connection is stable enough, but either way you’ll be completely “all in.” If you choose Facebook, you will have to deal with the fact that Zuckerberg can display perfectly-targeted advertising on every corner of the web. If decide to be your own identity provider to allay any privacy concerns, it will be up to you to ensure close-to-100% reliability and perfect security.

In the long run, though, it won’t really matter who manages your identity. Like market research and stereotyping for early print, radio, and television advertising, and now tracking cookies for targeted online advertising, we will quickly get used to ads that are scarily prescient: “It’s 4pm on Friday; isn’t it time that you went down to <your favorite tavern> to enjoy <your favorite beer>?” Even if you don’t get used to it, your hand will be forced: when Bob with his digital personal assistant can get twice as much work done as you and spend more time at home with his loved ones, are you really going to hold out on moving fully to the cloud?

Finally, as an added bonus, these digital dead ringers put us in perfect stead for when we can finally produce computers capable of imitating the human brain, or at least some semblance of sentient intelligence. This point in time, usually called the technological singularity, is usually painted in a stark light: How long will humans last when there are computers — another species — that are more intelligent than us? These almost-perfect digital representations of ourselves, our avatars, will also gain human-like intelligence at the singularity. If there is a war between man and machine, we’ll have our very own cyber warriors.

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