Archive for November 5th, 2012

I am an optimistic sort for the GOP and bucking the conventional wisdom believe that when all the votes are counted, Mitt Romney will be elected the 45th President of the United States. Note, my map above still has Iowa up in the air – but is irrelevant at this point.

By the time, the early Midwestern votes come in via exit polls, America should know the trend.

If Romney loses Ohio AND Wisconsin, he is probably toast.

If Obama loses any other state like Pennsylvania or Ohio, the President is done.

In the final weeks of the presidential campaign, there have been two major schools of thought about who is going to win. One school points to President Obama getting reelected for a very simple reason: polls show Mitt Romney losing Ohio, and all of the states that he would need to win to make up for a loss in Ohio. The other school argues that state polls have been systematically biased against Romney by assuming that Democratic turnout will rival – or even exceed – elevated 2008 levels, when Obamamania was at its peak. Those who believe that Romney will win have pointed to polls showing him ahead among independents, predicted a late break toward the challenger, or pointed to economic fundamentals. To read the conventional wisdom pointing to an Obama win, check out Nate Silver. To read predictions of a Romney win, check out our own Michael Barone, as well as Dan McLaughlin, Ben Domenech, Jay Cost. Also read Ted Frank, who still thinks Obama will likely win, though he makes a strong devil’s advocate argument for how Romney could pull it out.

But, in the end, I think a majority of American voters are not happy with the direction of the country and will willing to vote for a change.

In any case, the majority of the House of Representatives looks safely in the hands of the GOP. The U.S. Senate majority will remain under Democratic Party control.

Balanced or split party government is what Americans desire and that is what they will have after the voting tomorrow.

How Romneyworld sees Mitt winning the White House on Tuesday– The more difficult case to make is how Romney’s vote is lifted so that on the spectrum of Obama states to capture (the order in terms of confidence seems to be Indiana, North Carolina, Florida, Virginia, Iowa, Ohio, Colorado, Wisconsin, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Minnesota, Nevada and Michigan) it is a tide that rises above the Ohio threshold.Senior Romney advisers insist that although the popular vote will be close, in the electoral college the Republican nominee will win by more than 300 – something the adviser quoted here had predicted for several months.For that, several things have to happen: the battleground polls have to be wrong; undecideds have to vote for Romney; Romney’s turnout has to be very high; Obama’s vote has to be depressed.

Can so many polls be wrong? The short answer is yes. It is worth remembering that in January 2008 virtually no one in the political world believed that Hillary Clinton could win the New Hampshire primary over Obama, fresh off his Iowa victory. But win it she did.

This year, apart from Gallup and Rasmussen, pollsters have consistently over-sampled Democrats compared to Republicans. The Romney adviser said: ‘The samples that they’re using are geared towards 2008 results. So you get Democrats plus four on Pew, you’ve got Democrats plus eight on PPP.

‘It’s going to be a Republican plus one or Republicans plus two election. It’s not 2008, it’s not 2004, it’s not 2000. It’s a new election. It’s 2012 and a completely different dynamic. Every election we re-write history on turnout.

‘Gallup looked at it a week ago and decided it was going to be a more Republican electorate and they had it right.’

The closer you get to an election, the more likely undecideds are to break against the incumbent. Romney will also have voter enthusiasm on his side. Whether that’s enough, remains an open question but the Romney campaign thinks so.

‘What’s going on here is when you have intensity and momentum,’ said the Romney adviser.

All Over But the Vote Counting– After four nationally televised debates, two political conventions, hundreds of speeches, one devastating hurricane, and the expenditure of an estimated $2 billion — most of it on nasty, negative, and mendacious television ads — the 2012 campaign finally comes to a close Tuesday.Going into the final day, independent surveys still show the race to be close, with little recent movement — and few undecided voters left.Nonetheless, President Obama’s top advisers and like-minded pundits are openly confident, even haughty, in their certitude that a slight advantage in the public opinion polls will translate into a comfortable Electoral College victory Tuesday night. By contrast, the attitude at Mitt Romney’s headquarters might best be described as cautiously hopeful.

2012 Election: Poll: Mitt Romney ran better than John McCain– Americans are far more satisfied with Mitt Romney’s campaign than they were with John McCain’s effort four years ago, according to a poll released Monday.Only four-in-ten were happy with McCain’s 2008 campaign, according to Gallup, while 54 percent are satisfied with the race Romney has run. Satisfaction with President Barack Obama’s campaign has dipped from 66 percent — the highest Gallup has ever recorded — in 2008 to 58 percent in 2012.

Arizona group plans appeal to U.S. Supreme Court in funding case– The Arizona nonprofit behind a controversial $11-million donation plans to take its case to the U.S. Supreme Court in a last-ditch bid to avoid turning over records to California’s campaign finance watchdog.The California Supreme Court ordered the nonprofit to comply with an audit by 4 p.m. Sunday. Lawyers for the nonprofit asked for an extension, saying it was impossible from “a logistical perspective.”That request was denied by the state justices, and the nonprofit’s lawyers filed another letter outlining its plan to continue appealing the case.

In the letter, San Francisco attorney Thad Davis said the case raises “novel and pressing issues” that need a full vetting before the nonprofit can be forced to turn over records.

Davis wrote that the case “raises critical First Amendment issues regarding the ability of an organization to freely associate and speak on vital election-related matters without reprisal by government officials opposed to their view.”

California Supreme Court orders nonprofit to face FPPC audit– Update (4:50 p.m.): Americans for Responsible Leadership did not submit information to the FPPC by 4 p.m. as ordered and instead has asked the state court for more time as it asks the U.S. Supreme Court for review, according to FPPC chairwoman Ann Ravel.The California Supreme Court this afternoon ordered an obscure Arizona nonprofit to submit donation records immediately to state regulators related to an $11 million contribution the group gave in October.The state’s highest court issued its unanimous 7-0 decision at 3 p.m. after a telephone conference and gave Phoenix-based Americans for Responsible Leadership until 4 p.m. to comply.

The state Fair Political Practices Commission had asked the Supreme Court to force ARL to turn over e-mails and transactions data behind the donation, whose specific donors the group has never disclosed. The group gave $11 million to a business campaign committee established to oppose Gov. Jerry Brown’s tax initiative, Proposition 30, and support a measure that would restrict union dues collection, Proposition 32.

Ontario Teachers Said to Near $1.3 Billion Heartland Dental Care Deal– Ontario Teachers’ Pension Plan is nearing a deal to buy Heartland Dental Care Inc. that values the company at about $1.3 billion, outbidding traditional leveraged- buyout funds, said people with knowledge of the matter.The Canadian retirement fund may be prepared to announce an agreement with Effingham, Illinois-based Heartland as soon as tomorrow, said the people, who spoke on condition of anonymity because the talks are private. KKR & Co. (KKR), Madison Dearborn Partners LLC, and Apax Partners LLP had also pursued an acquisition of Heartland, one of the people said.Founded by Chief Executive Officer Richard Workman, Heartland is one of the largest U.S. dental practice management companies. It manages 370 practices in 19 states, helping dentists with personnel and back-office support, according to its website. CHS Capital, a Chicago-based private equity firm, bought a stake of undisclosed size in Heartland in 2008.

Calls to Deborah Allan, a spokeswoman for Ontario Teachers’, and Ashley Buehnerkemper, of closely held Heartland, weren’t immediately returned. Representatives of the private- equity firms declined to comment.

In addition to investing in private equity funds managed by others, Teachers, with C$117.1 billion under management as of Dec. 31, makes its own direct investments in private equity, usually alongside a buyout firm. Teachers has disclosed only two acquisitions worth more than $1 billion without a co-investor, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Those were the 2007 acquisition of marine container terminals in Canada and the U.S. from Oriental Overseas International Ltd. for about $2.35 billion, and the 2000 purchase of Cadillac Fairview Corp., a commercial real estate developer, for C$2.3 billion ($1.56 billion at the time).

Reid to Romney: Senate Dems Won’t Work With You– If Mitt Romney wins the presidency, he will not win cooperation from Senate Democrats, Majority Leader Harry Reid, D-Nev., said Friday in his latest and perhaps final shot at a candidate who aides say Reid personally disdains.In a statement reacting to what he said are Romney’s claims that Senate Democrats will work with him on his agenda, Reid calls Romney a “severe conservative” whose “far-right agenda” Democrats reject.

“Romney’s fantasy that Senate Democrats will work with him to pass his ‘severely conservative’ agenda is laughable. In fact, Mitt Romney’s Tea Party agenda has already been rejected in the Senate,” Reid says, listing GOP policies Romney has embraced that the Senate has voted down, including the budget plans offered by vice presidential nominee Paul Ryan, R.-Wis.

Democrats look set to retain control of the Senate. Reid’s statement, while aiming to aid President Obama’s reelection, is a reminder that should Romney win, Senate Democrats will pose a major hurdle to his plans and that Reid’s dislike of Romney, more specifically, would be a problem.

The Case of the GMO Papaya – This story ends in the same way it begins—with conflict. The disagreements in California, fortunately, have not resulted in physical altercations or property damage. Ultimately, however, both those who support and oppose GMOs should take the time to discuss each side’s viewpoint. As Davidson notes, scientists need to make themselves more available to answer questions the public undoubtedly has, and to illustrate that genetic modification is more than an issue of simple economics. Sometimes, as in the case of the papaya, the ability of future generations to partake in a highly nutrient-dense crop may be at stake. An open, transparent forum of ideas will do much to alleviate the concerns of more moderate GMO activists and allow all of humanity to reap the benefits of this technology.