No line for Ravens @ Steelers. Hopefully I can update before
Sunday. Update: almost forgot. Still no agreement, a couple Lines going for Steelers, so that's how I'll go here.

-15 seems like a lot of points for the Seahawks to cover this
week. Yeah, they're playing at home, and yeah, the Raiders are a
bad team. But the Seahawks are also clearly not as good as they
were last year either.

Some trepidation for the Washington/Vikings line as well,
presumably based on the status of RG3. I'll check that one
Saturday too.

Time for another Manning-Brady matchup, as well as a rematch of
the AFC Championship
game. As I
mentioned in the power rankings, the Broncos are ranked head
and shoulders above everybody else after having beaten the 49ers
and Chargers. If they can beat the Patriots in their own house, it
will give them a trio of really strong victories, and the inside
track on the AFC's #1 seed.

The Line likes the Cowboys over the Cardinals. I think this is
another mistake, especially with Romo hurt. The Cowboys struggled
to score against Washington, and now they'll be facing a team with
a real defense (even, I think, if Patrick Peterson has to sit
out).

This loss has to go on the Cowboys offense, which was struggling
even before Romo got hurt. They had two more turnovers, but I think
the game was really lost on the 6 drives that ended on a punt,
turnover on downs, or the first half expiring. The Cowboys just need
to score more than 17 points to win games.

Colts @ Steelers

This was just a massive breakdown in the Colts' defense. The
Steelers scored touchdowns on 5 of their first 6 drives, all 76
yards or longer. In spite of the Steelers having a not-so-dominating
second half, that was enough to put the game out of reach for the Colts.

Split Picks: (APR 3-2, SRS 2-3, Line 3-2)

Packers (APR, SRS) @ Saints (Line)

Part of this was the Packers failing to get into the end zone
early, aided by some really idiotic playcalling. I mean, when you've
got Jordy Nelson, Randall Cobb, Eddie Lacy, and Davante Adams in
your receiving corp, you don't need Julius Peppers on the field in a
goal to go situation.

Part of this was the defense once again failing to get a punt, or
even slow down the Saints in the second half. And once Aaron Rodgers
tweaked his hamstring, and the Packers stopped scoring on every
drive, this game was pretty much over.

Bills (APR, SRS) @ Jets (Line)

The Bills may not be a great team, but the Jets are awful. This
was just a flat mistake for the Line to take them here.

Vikings (APR, SRS) @ Buccaneers (Line)

A close game featuring a couple bad teams. A couple notable
differences for the Vikings. For the first time since their late
September blow out win over the Falcons, they scored more than 16
points, and they didn't turn the ball over. It wasn't by any means a
dominating performance, but it was enough to get a road win over a
weak opponent.

Ravens (APR, SRS) @ Bengals (Line)

Is there any figuring the Bengals? Given their three games prior
to this one, they looked doomed to a long ugly slide at least until
they could get AJ Green Back. Instead they got some solid receiving
production from Mohamet Sanu, okay results from their running back
by committee approach, and decent production from their defense,
that held their opponent under 27 points for the first time since
September. In all, it was enough to stop the Ravens, who before this
week looked like they might run away with the AFC North.

Eagles (SRS) @ Cardinals (APR, Line)

Watching this game, it seemed like the Eagles were mostly the
better team on offense. But 6 punts and 3 turnovers meant they had a
lot of drives that didn't put any points on the board, and gave the
Cardinals opportunity to control the game, which they did.

The Cardinals have somehow managed to make it to 6-1. Their
offense sure doesn't seem that good, and their defense doesn't
seem that dominating. One change over last year that helps a lot
is the fact that the offense hardly ever turns over the
ball. They've lost the ball just 5 times so far this season,
compared with 17 turnovers through 7 games last year.

You have to go back to 1997 to find a season where the Lions
did better than 4-4 in the second half of the season. I know that
covers a lot of players and a lot of coaches (not to mention Matt
Millen) but there's a certain... institutional consistency going
on there. Especially given the way they struggled to beat the
Falcons this week, the Lions are a long way from clinching
anything just yet.

Since their blow-out win over the Buccaneers, the Falcons have
averaged 17 points a game, and (with the exception of the Ravens)
facing some pretty bad defenses. Given how good the Lions' defense
has been, the Falcons might actually be looking at their first
shut out since 2004.

Should the Saints be favored to win this week? They don't lose
very often at home, and with a prime time game and on the brink of
falling to 2-5, they're going to be as jacked up for this game as
any this season.

On the other hand, their two home wins so far this season were not exactly
dominating afairs, in spite of a couple pretty weak opponents. I
think if the Packers come ready for a battle, this is one they can
win.

Can the Browns get back on track against the Raiders? After
watching the Cardinals @ Raiders game last week, I think the
Raiders are not as bad as their 0-6 record, and if the Browns are
not careful, they could wind up giving a win to the final
remaining winless team.

Remember when the Bengals were one of the last undefeated teams
in the league? That's gotta seem like a long time ago to them and
their fans. Especially if AJ Green can't play, this seems like it
should be a pretty easy win for the Ravens.

Eagles @ Cardinals is actually one of the marquee matchups this
week. But with the way the Eagles turn over the ball, and have
needed a lot of help from their special teams to put points on the
board, I think they're going to have a tough time getting ahead of
the Cardinals.

The Chargers win when they score 22+ points (which they've done 5
times this season) and the Chiefs lose when they give up 22+ points
(which they've done 3 times this season), so easy pick, right?

But in this game, the Chiefs defense held the Chargers to just two
touchdown drives and two field goals (thanks in part to the offense
holding onto the ball for 39 minutes). That gave the Chiefs an
opportunity to stay in the game, and in classic football cliche
style, win the game in the fourth quarter.

Seahawks @ Rams

Of course, the Rams got a big boost from their special teams, But
for the second week in a row, the Seahawks offense struggled to move
the ball, posting 5 drives 41 yards or shorter. They had three
sustained drives late, but ran out of time before they could
complete a comeback.

Browns @ Jaguars

The Browns offense couldn't get anything going in this game,
punting 7 times and turning the ball over on downs three
times. Still, they were only down 6-7 late in the fourth quarter
when a couple turnovers gave the Jags short fields that they turned
into easy touchdowns.

Split Picks: (APR 0-3, SRS 2-1, Line 2-1)

Wow, maybe the ugliest week ever for APR on split picks.

Dolphins (SRS) @ Bears (APR, Line)

I think the Dolphins have an underrated defense, and when they
face a struggling offense like the Bears, it can swing a game their
way. The Bears had 3 turnovers, and other than their two touchdowns,
their longest drive went 35 yards. The Dolphins offense isn't gonna
set any records this season, but it didn't take a lot for them to
finish ahead of the Bears in this game.

Titans (APR) @ Washington (SRS, Line)

A close game against a couple mediocre teams. Washington actually
had 115 more yards of offense, so this is a game they should win as
long as they don't make any big mistakes. Colt McCoy only threw for
128 yards in the second half, but he only threw incomplete once, and
didn't throw any interceptions. That was enough to give them a 2
point victory over the Titans.

Texans (APR, SRS) @ Steelers (Line)

Well, the Texans established an early 13-0 lead,
and could've won this game. But two turnovers deep in their
own end gave the Steelers a couple easy touchdowns, and it was more
than the Texans could overcome.

The Patriots struggle to beat another lesser opponent in their
home stadium. If the Jets had won, one of the things I would've
pointed to was their third down coversion rate (9 of 16) as a
major factor in keeping them in the game.

Well, the Bengals were +2 on turnovers against the Colts, but
the Bengals offense just collapsed against what has been an
unremarkable defense (although the Colts defense is currently best
in the league on third down conversions, thanks in part to a 1/13
performance by the Bengals).

One of the big differences for the Seahawks between last year
and this is turnovers. Last year they finished the regular season
with a +20 cumulative turnover margin. This year, nearly halfway
into the season, they're currently at +1.

The Eagles, Colts, and Cowboys are all in the top 5 of
turnovers on offense right now. They might all make it to the
postseason, but as I've observed before, turnovers can be a real
deal breaker when it comes playoff time.

Peyton Manning is only 2 touchdowns away from tying Brett
Favre's carrer total (and league record) of 508. Manning has
passed for at least 2 touchdowns every game this year, including
against the Seahawks.

The 49ers haven't been giving up many passing touchdowns, but
they really haven't faced a lot of big passing threats either. It
seems like a lock Manning will at least tie the record Sunday
night

I feel like the Steelers are a bad pick for the Line this
week. The Steelers have been deeply unimpressive so far this
season, giving the Buccaneers their first (and so far only) win of
the season, and struggling to beat the now 0-6 Jaguars.

The Texans haven't looked like world-beaters either, but at least
they've been competitive against some tougher teams. I think APR
and SRS are right here.

Everybody likes the Colts to win at home this week. But their
offense has one of the highest turnover totals in the league so
far this season. If the Bengals can get some turnovers, they'll
have a chance to jump start their season with an upset win this
week.

The Lions' defense has looked a lot better this season than it
has in a long time. But with Drew Brees and the Saints coming to
town, they'll be facing one of their toughest tests of the season,
especially if Calvin Johnson has to sit out again.

The Packers are favored to win again against what feels like an
under-rated opponent. Cam Newton had a field day running against
the Bengals last week, and he might have another one against the
Packers.

This has to be the ugliest game the Seahawks have played in a long
time. The defense couldn't get off the field (the Cowboys had 4
drives of 71+ yards and held the ball for over 37 minutes of game
time) and the offense couldn't get anything started, posting just
one drive longer than 24 yards. If the Seahawks hadn't had a
touchdown on a blocked punt, this game would've been even uglier for
the Seahawks than it was.

Push:

Panthers @ Bengals

Mike Nugent is the easy scapegoat here, but mostly what I'm
thinking in looking at this game is, didn't the Bengals used to have
a defense? Giving up 43 points to the Patriots on the road is one
thing, but here they gave up 37 points at home to a Panthers team
that's been struggling offensively, and hasn't scored that many
points on the road since 2012. Just an ugly effort on the part of
their defense.

Split Picks: (APR 1-2, SRS 1-2, Line 2-1)

Patriots (Line) @ Bills (APR, SRS)

No prizes for guessing that the Bills' 2-0 start was a big
mirage, or that Kyle Orton wasn't going to carry this team to
glory. The Bills were actually in this for much of the game, but too
many turnovers on offense, and an inability of the defense to get
stops in the second half doomed the Bills to their fate.

Bears (APR, SRS) @ Falcons (Line)

And didn't the Falcons used to have an offense? They only had one
drive go more than 33 yards in this game, and join the Jets as the
only teams not to score at least 20 points on the Bears this
fall. It's starting to look like another long, ugly season for the
Falcons.

Giants (APR, SRS) @ Eagles (Line)

That was an amazingly bad performance by the Giants in this
game. They didn't have a drive go longer than 18 yards until deep
into garbage time.

Meanwhile, it seems kind of weird to say after a 27-0 curb
stomping of a divisional opponent, but the Eagles offense didn't
really seem that amazing in this game. They really only had 3
sustained drives, and Nick Foles threw a couple more
interceptions. In spite of this dominating victory, I'm going to
wait a while before pronouncing the Eagles offensive troubles cured.

Totals

Another nice week for everybody, thanks to another solid round of
unanimous picks. If only Mike Nugent had made that field goal...

We've now had a tie game for three seasons in a row (first time
since 87-89) and a tie game prior to week 10 for the first time
since week 5 of the 89 season. Clearly one of the consequences of
the new overtime rules is we're going to see a lot more tie
games.

I had the Seahawks pencilled in as the #1 seed in the
NFC. I think it's time to get my eraser out.

The Dolphins really should've beat the Packers this week. They
had plenty of chances to stop that final drive, including an
opportunity to tackle Davante Adams inbounds on that fake spike
play. Sometimes the difference in a game is just that one team
knows how to win, and the other one doesn't.

I was thinking that the Chargers might actually be a good team
with a solid defense. But giving up 4 touchdowns to Raiders'
rookie QB Derek Carr doesn't do much to support that position.

The Cardinals' win over Washington was not very impressive,
especially considering a +4 advantage in the turnover
margin. Maybe it was partly because Carson Palmer still isn't back
to full strength, but they sure seem an unlikely candidate to have
one of the best records in the league.

Remember when the Cardinals had a decent starting quarterback
and a solid backup? Yeah, good times. Now Carson Palmer is dealing
with nerve issues in his arm, and Drew Stanton is recovering from
a concussion. Which means the Cards might be starting 4th round
rookie Logan Thomas, with some guy off the street (Dennis Dixon,
maybe) backing him up.

Patriots @ Bills is a rare case of APR and SRS taking the home
time and the Line taking the road team. I don't buy that one
dominating win means it's gonna be all rainbows and unicorns for
the Pats now, but the Bills (now featuring Kyle Orton) have been
so bad for so long, I'm not sure they're the ones to give the Pats
their third loss.

I might start to think Tony Romo has solved his interception
throwing problems if he can get past the Seahawks defense without
getting picked on some ill-adviced pass. But right now my gut
tells me the Cowboys aren't as good as their 4-1 record, and
they're gonna get clobbered Sunday.

The Browns are unanimously picked to beat the Steelers! A sign
of the fact that the Browns do look better than they have in a
long time, but also a sign that the Steelers look perhaps even
worse than last season's 8-8 squad.

After a bumbling 0-2 start, the Giants have rattled off a trio
of convincing wins (albeit against some lesser opponents). This
week starts a very tough stretch for the Giants, where they'll
face the Eagles, Cowboys, Colts, Seahawks, and 49ers. The Giants
are going to have to play some solid football for this not to
derail their playoff chances.

Bears @ Falcons is an interesting matchup. Both have been
foundering, both have at least the potential to do better. The
winner will be at 3-3 and have a chance to climb back into the
playoff race, while the loser will be at 2-4, and already at the
brink of elimination.

The Lions' (now ex-) field goal kicker missed three long
field goals in this game, which does not make you popular in a game
lost by 3 points. But the Lions' offense has to bear some blame
too. They only had three drives longer than 31 yards, and never went
for it on 4th down, in spite of knowing their kicker is struggling.

Bengals @ Patriots

What struck me in watching this game is how bad the Bengals'
defense was. They rarely got any pressure on Brady, they missed
tackles, they were out of position. They made it look very easy for
the Patriots to drive for scores, which they did repeatedly.

I mentioned
in the
game picks it's not a good idea to underestimate Belichick and
Brady, and this is why. Even now, they are capable of rising up and
obliterating their opponent.

Split Picks: (APR 2-3, SRS 1-4, Line 4-1)

Cardinals (APR, SRS) @ Broncos (Line)

The Cardinals didn't look ready for this game on either side of
the ball. The offense punted an astonishing 11 times, and the
defense gave up big play after big play. Maybe the most surprising
thing about this game is that it was close through three quarters.

Chiefs (SRS) @ 49ers (APR, Line)

On the one hand, the Chiefs' defense didn't have a great day,
allowing the 49ers 6 drives of 43 yards or longer, all ending with a
score. On the other hand, only one of those was a touchdown, so the
Chiefs didn't need an offensive explosion to win the game. But they
only managed 3 scoring drives, and their final three drives were all
19 yards or shorter.

Ravens (APR, SRS) @ Colts (Line)

Looking at the boxscore for this game, it was an ugly one for both
teams. The Ravens had 3 turnovers, the Colts had 4. Both
quarterbacks averaged under 7 yards a pass attempt. The Ravens gave
up 4 sacks, the Colts gave up 83 penalty yards. Both teams had a
long drive end without a score. In the end, the Colts were able to
do a little more with their opportunities than the Ravens did with
theirs.

Bears (APR, SRS) @ Panthers (Line)

Browns (APR, SRS) @ Titans (Line)

This is why you don't take your foot off the gas, even when you're
up 28-3 over the Browns in your own stadium. The Browns just kept
chipping away at that lead, and the Titans just kept not extending
it. Part of this was the Titans having to play Charlie Whitehurst,
who just wasn't able to respond once the game started to get close
again, and part was the fact that the Titans didn't go to a
run-heavy offense when they had a chance to run out the clock.

I'd say the top 6 or so seems about right, although I'd put the
Cardinals lower, especially as long as Carson Palmer is out. As
demonstrated Sunday, their offense just isn't enough against the
top tier teams.

I really gotta wonder why the Vikings didn't try to run the
ball more than they did Thursday night. The Packers have been
giving up 4.6 yards a rushing attempt, and Jerick McKinnon and
Matt Asiata seem like legitimate rushing threats.

Instead the Vikings came out passing more than they ran (even
when the game was 14-0). The way Eddie Lacy ran all over their
defense, maybe a run-heavy game plan for the Vikings would've been
doomed as well, but they might've had a chance to keep it close
into the second half.

Another very unimpressive road win for the Seahawks, letting
Washington hang around for almost the whole game. But as long as
they get home field advantage, it may not matter that they're not
very good on the road. Last February's Super Bowl showed they can
be very good on a neutral field.

Is there anybody in the NFC that can legitimately challenge the
Seahawks right now? Looking at last year's playoff teams, the
49ers, Saints, Panthers, and Eagles all seem to have dropped off
at least somewhat.

The Packers might have a chance if their offense can stay on
track, but they're already 2 games behind the Seahawks (including
the head-to-head tiebreaker) so the Packers might need to run the
table to have a chance of finishing ahead of the Seahawks at this
point.

9 points seems like a lot for the Packers to cover, especially
after their defense failed to force a single punt last Sunday, and
the Vikings scored 41 points on the Falcons. Teddy Bridgewater and
rookie RB Jerick McKinnon (135 yards last Sunday) are both
questionable at this writing, so it could depend on how healthy the
Vikings are at gametime.

The Patriots haven't
been home underdogs very
many times in the Tom Brady era. (But they
haven't lost by 27 points
many times either.) If the Pats lose this game... well, it's
still early, and I don't want to underestimate Bill Belichick and
Tom Brady, but it sure won't be a good sign of happy times next
January.

Cardinals @ Broncos is maybe the most interesting game this
week. It's a chance for one of the best defenses to go up against
one of the best offenses. The winner will have a legitimate spot
at the top of the power rankings, and the loser (especially if
it's the Broncos) will have some questions that need to be
answered.

Everybody likes the Cowboys this week, but I feel like Tony
Romo is a good pass rush away from another disastrous game. If JJ
Watt and the Texans' defense can bring the heat, this is a
very winnable game for them.

The 49ers sure didn't look good Sunday, and almost certainly
would've lost if the Eagles had more than one sustained drive, or
been able to punch it in when they had first and goal at the
6.

If the Chiefs defense can have another game like they did Monday
night, they could easily give the 49ers their third loss of the
season.

Since their week 1 win over the Chiefs the Titans have
looked horrible, turning over the ball on offense, and unable to
buy a stop on defense. Meanwhile, the Browns have looked like
they are at least better than last year, with all three of their
games so far coming right down to the end. Whether the Titans
field an injured Jake Locker or an ineffective Charlie Whitehurst,
this is a game the Browns can win, and should if they really have
improved over last year.