Diary Entry: R Plus 5

I prepare a forecast for a conference call. The window for 4-5 inches, written into my contract as one day, is now one month, so the rainmakers have another three and a half weeks to deliver. I can’t believe that people are still hanging around waiting for the rain to come. My short-term forecast is for widespread cloud cover until Tuesday, but probably no rain.

The General asks me whether the winds are from the southwest. I agree that they are. He then asks what I would think if they were suddenly able to move the moisture from the southeast, at right angles to the present wind direction. By changing the wind, I ask? I didn’t say that, he answers.

Changing the wind, as implausible as it sounds, is a lot more conceivable than moving the moisture without changing the wind. Air molecules, including water vapor molecules, are constantly running into each other and bouncing off of each other. Aside from giving each of millions of millions of millions of millions of millions of millions of water vapor molecule a tiny motor, a guidance system, a sonar system, and an energy supply so that each of them can navigate their way around the other air molecules and make it to the target area, there’s no way to do it.

I offer to assess the likelihood of 4-5 inches over the next three and a half weeks, assuming no weather intervention. Certainly it’s going to be higher than 4-5 inches in a day, so the test will be less conclusive. To my mind, they’ve already predicted three different rain events and failed to deliver on any of them. Meanwhile, my forecasts of no rain have all been correct so far.

A few hours later, I get instructions to temporarily cease work. Probably a good move. We don’t need daily forecasts if it’s a month-long event. And it’s clear, despite the secrecy associated with the methods, that they’re envisioning what would appear to be conventional weather systems producing conventional rain. If it does rain in the area, I’ll know it from radar and other observation and analysis systems.

If it doesn’t rain, I suppose that my employers will not be too happy to pay for an extensive report demonstrating that it didn’t rain. But I’ll have to write such a report anyway, because part of my reason for signing on is to be able to tell the state of Texas whether these people really have a viable weather modification method. The state needs to know if the answer is yes or no. And people tell me that even the Governor’s office is interested in the results of the weather modification experiment.

And if it does rain four or five inches, I suppose I’ll be flying back to Midland.

One Response

You’re not getting the usual horde of comments, but I have been greatly enjoying this series. It’s a pleasant break from the AGW debates, which is not to say those aren’t educational and enjoyable in their own right. Cheers.