Crimea Crisis: The Chess Game of Troop Movements in Europe

The situation is the Ukraine and recently seceded Crimea may not be a game, but world powers are moving pieces around Europe as though it were a chessboard. These maneuvers are meant to apply diplomatic pressure, give teeth to verbal threats and, perhaps, either prepare for or prevent for the next phase of the crisis.

On the Ground

Russia has deployed troops on the border of eastern Ukraine, either as part of an invasion force or as a threat to gain diplomatic leverage. Russian troops and Russian-backed militia are digging into the Crimea. There have also been reliable reports and photos of minefields being planted in Kherson Province in Ukraine, a few miles away from Russian military in Crimea.

To counter Russia's moves, on Friday the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, and Slovakia—former client states of the Soviet Union—signed a military pact creating a unified defense force. The group, called the Visegrad 4, says the combat unit will operate under the auspices of NATO and the European Union. "The current situation in Europe shows that unfortunately a military conflict, previously considered unthinkable, could happen," Polish Defense Minister Tomasz Siemoniak told reporters.

The U.S. Army will deploy units for a large training exercise in Poland in July. The exercise, Rapid trident 2014, is an annual event to coordinate joint operations between partner militaries. This year, more than 1000 troops will deploy in western Ukraine, near the Polish border, for the drills.

Last year, the forces on hand merged into one multinational battalion during field training exercises. Ukrainian airborne infantry staff commanded the forces. The combat drills were pretty generic—communications, basic maneuvers, improvised explosive detection—but even simple exercises helps form the backbone of multinational forces. This year the annual get-together has an added gravity associated with it, especially since U.S. European Command canceled similar exercises it was to conduct with Russian forces.

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The U.S. government has not promised any weapons (so-called lethal aid) or intelligence assets to the Ukrainian government, but that could change if the situation escalates.

In the Air

The Soviet nations in the Baltic—Lithuania, Estonia, and Latvia—can't defend their own airspace, and so NATO runs air patrols with three or four warplanes staged out of Siauliai Air Base, in Lithuania. The Belgians handed over this duty, called the NATO Baltic Air Policing Mission, to the United States in January.

Then Crimea happened. Now, the four F-15C Eagles deployed to that Lithuanian base will be joined by six more F-15s from RAF Lakenheath in England. And the F-15s won't be alone in bulking up the aerial presence. On Monday, the United Kingdom announced that Typhoon aircraft will join the Policing Mission. This increased presence is meant to make the Baltic nations feel better protected from Russian incursion and set up a rapid response force that can counter any bullying Kremlin moves, such as sending bombers on runs close to Baltic airspace. (It's been known to happen.)

Closer to Crimea, a small U.S. program to help Poland has been given new life. In late 2012, the U.S. Air Force created a small aviation detachment meant to operate on Polish soil. The idea was to bring F-16s and cargo planes to the region to foster joint training. (Remember, communications, logistics, and personal relationships are the cornerstones of warfare.) Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel told Congress that he planned to boost this effort. Still, it seems there were no warplanes in Poland when the crisis broke out. The next deployment is scheduled for April, when more than 100 U.S. personnel will arrive at Powidz air base in Poland, spokesmen told Stars and Stripes. And last week, NATO announced E-3 AWACs surveillance aircraft would take off from bases in England and Germany to patrol Poland and Romania, keeping an eye on activity in neighboring Ukraine.

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Russia is shuffling warplanes in response. Belarus, a state with deep ties to Russia, is receiving more Russian warplanes. The Defense Ministry this weekend announced an A-50 early warning aircraft had been redeployed to Baranovichi Airfield in Belarus. These sensor-studded airplanes are crucial to managing airspace during battles, and can coordinate air-to-air and air-to-ground missions of up to 10 warplanes at a time.

Last week, the Russian Air Force sent six SU-27 warplanes—Russian fighters that were built to counter the U.S. F-15—to Belarus, RIA Novosti reported. They are highly maneuverable but can also conduct air support missions against ground targets.

Before they get there, the Russians are signaling they are ready for any incursions. On Friday, according to Interfax, Russian units in Belarus began "tactical exercises" with the new warplanes at the base. By the end of the year, there will be an entire regiment, 24 SU-27s, in Belarus.

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