Canaveral Launch Success! (see comment 649)

On the east side of the Sea of Cortez (Gulf of California) is a circular area of low clouds rotating counterclockwise. High clouds above it are moving clockwise. Deep convection is bursting near the center.

UPDATE: A satellite loop of the system described is in comment 1. Similar systems continue to appear. Below I've added self updating satellite images and surface maps of the area.

I'll add loops of similar systems that I see to the comments. Currently there are loops in comments 1 and 7.

Mr. Cagtripodi discovered these sunspots on the Sun today from Italy as shown here earlier before on this site. This is a picture angled from Yonkers, N. Y. USA. All credit and thanks Must go to Mr. Cagtripodi for making us aware of the phenomena

Every Year on the Winter Solstice for many years now I have taken the Sunrise. It is always in the same spot behind that Evergreen Tree. This year there are some clouds but you can still see the Sun Blazing through. Today is the shortage amount daylight. The Good News! We will start picking up daylight from now on! Happy Holidays, Make it The Best Ever! P.S. In the Northern Hemisphere the Winter Solstice starts: Dec. 22, 12:30 A.M. EDT (05:30 UT*), Sun enters sign of Capricorn; winter begins.

....One analysis of re-entry survivability for UARS components was performed several years ago with a software program called Object Re-entry Survival Analysis Tool, or ORSAT for short.

That computer analysis showed that about 150 component types, including the parent body of the satellite, will demise during re-entry, and 12 types (26 counting multiple components) would endure the fiery fall to Earth.

That appraisal indicated a surviving mass of 1,170 pounds (532 kilograms) falling within a debris footprint length of some 500 miles (800 kilometers).....

As of 10:30 a.m. EDT on Sept. 23, 2011, the orbit of UARS was 100 miles by 105 miles (160 km by 170 km). Re-entry is expected late Friday, Sept. 23, or early Saturday, Sept. 24, Eastern Daylight Time. Solar activity is no longer the major factor in the satellite%u2019s rate of descent. The satellite%u2019s orientation or configuration apparently has changed, and that is now slowing its descent. There is a low probability any debris that survives re-entry will land in the United States, but the possibility cannot be discounted because of this changing rate of descent. It is still too early to predict the time and location of re-entry with any certainty, but predictions will become more refined in the next 12 to 18 hours.

Because the satellite's orbit is inclined 57 degrees to the equator, any surviving components of UARS will land within a zone between 57 degrees north latitude and 57 degrees south latitude. It is impossible to pinpoint just where in that zone the debris will land, but NASA estimates the debris footprint will be about 500 miles long.

If you find something you think may be a piece of UARS, do not touch it. Contact a local law enforcement official for assistance.

....One analysis of re-entry survivability for UARS components was performed several years ago with a software program called Object Re-entry Survival Analysis Tool, or ORSAT for short.

That computer analysis showed that about 150 component types, including the parent body of the satellite, will demise during re-entry, and 12 types (26 counting multiple components) would endure the fiery fall to Earth.

That appraisal indicated a surviving mass of 1,170 pounds (532 kilograms) falling within a debris footprint length of some 500 miles (800 kilometers).....

sp The center-point of the reentry prediction will continue changing over the next day. What looks promising for Southern California is that the sky will be darkening as it makes its pass or descent in that area.

It's amazing how much the prediction has changed over the last few days. It'd be hard to know where to set up a tripod ;)Sorta glad to see it's possible that it will come down over us ... it would be neat to see it! But I worry some bit might hit something vital, of course, unlikely as that is.What's your math on the timing of that, LC? I counted about 2 1/2 hours after but I am notoriously bad at seeing those little tick-marks.

Somewhere out there in video-land is a recent movie of the UARS tumbling around. It's fuzzy but still cool and if I find it again I'll bring it by.

....One analysis of re-entry survivability for UARS components was performed several years ago with a software program called Object Re-entry Survival Analysis Tool, or ORSAT for short.

That computer analysis showed that about 150 component types, including the parent body of the satellite, will demise during re-entry, and 12 types (26 counting multiple components) would endure the fiery fall to Earth.

That appraisal indicated a surviving mass of 1,170 pounds (532 kilograms) falling within a debris footprint length of some 500 miles (800 kilometers).....

She packed my bags last night pre-flightZero hour nine a.m.And I’m gonna be high as a kite by thenI miss the earth so much I miss my wifeIt’s lonely out in spaceOn such a timeless flight

And I think it’s gonna be a long long timeTill touch down brings me round again to findI’m not the man they think I am at homeOh no no no I’m a rocket manRocket man burning out his fuse up here alone

Mars ain’t the kind of place to raise your kidsIn fact it’s cold as hellAnd there’s no one there to raise them if you didAnd all this science I don’t understandIt’s just my job five days a weekA rocket man, a rocket man

....One analysis of re-entry survivability for UARS components was performed several years ago with a software program called Object Re-entry Survival Analysis Tool, or ORSAT for short.

That computer analysis showed that about 150 component types, including the parent body of the satellite, will demise during re-entry, and 12 types (26 counting multiple components) would endure the fiery fall to Earth.

That appraisal indicated a surviving mass of 1,170 pounds (532 kilograms) falling within a debris footprint length of some 500 miles (800 kilometers).....

As of 1:30 p.m. EDT Sept. 21, 2011, the orbit of UARS was 120 mi by 130 mi (190 km by 205 km). Re-entry is expected sometime during the afternoon of Sept. 23, Eastern Daylight Time. The satellite will not be passing over North America during that time period. It is still too early to predict the time and location of re-entry with any more certainty, but predictions will become more refined in the next 24 to 48 hours.....

LegendYellow Icon - location of object at predicted reentry timeOrange Line - area of visibility at the predicted reentry time for a ground observerBlue Line - ground track uncertainty prior to predicted reentry time (ticks at 5-minute intervals)Yellow Line - ground track uncertainty after predicted reentry time (ticks at 5-minute intervals)White Line - day/night divider at predicted reentry time (Sun location shown by White Icon)Note: Possible reentry locations lie anywhere along the blue and yellow ground track.

....One analysis of re-entry survivability for UARS components was performed several years ago with a software program called Object Re-entry Survival Analysis Tool, or ORSAT for short.

That computer analysis showed that about 150 component types, including the parent body of the satellite, will demise during re-entry, and 12 types (26 counting multiple components) would endure the fiery fall to Earth.

That appraisal indicated a surviving mass of 1,170 pounds (532 kilograms) falling within a debris footprint length of some 500 miles (800 kilometers).....

Pat Thanks for the good news. I watched some of the return to Earth on NASA TV last night.

So now it's three down and three still up. If the next Soyuz launches are OK and as planned it will be plus three more up November 12 and the International Space Station won't have to go empty when three more come down on November 22.

Expedition 28 Commander Andrey Borisenko and Flight Engineers Alexander Samokutyaev and Ron Garan landed their Soyuz TMA-21 spacecraft in Kazakhstan a few seconds before midnight EDT Friday, with an official landing time of 11:59:39 p.m.

Thursday. Russian recovery teams were on hand to help the crew exit the Soyuz vehicle and adjust to gravity after 164 days in space

shore We do get monsoon pulses in mid-September sometimes but "normally" they come from the the easterly through southerly directions accompanied by sticky heat. What is not usual about the current spell is its persistence this far east, the absence of heat and the direction it's coming from. The moisture is wrapping around upper lows and coming from the north.

You probably don't want to send Pecos Bill. All we have to offer is isolated cloudbursts, brief wetting rains and dry lightning strikes.

Karen Oh well, we don't really expect rain in coastal SoCal in the summer. I hope we have early start to a productive rain season though.

My gosh. I thought last night's weather was odd, but now you have two days in a row with t-storms and flooding? Is this "normal" - sort of a monsoon season or something? If you don't usually get rain this time of year and aren't sure where it came from, it may be ours. Just let me know - I'll send Pecos Bill over to lasso it and bring it on home. ;)

* AT 351 PM PDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED FLASH FLOODING FROM A THUNDERSTORM NORTH OF MOUNT WILSON. RADAR RAINFALL RATES OF UP TO AN INCH AND HALF PER HOUR WERE BEING RECORDED FROM THIS STORM.

FLOODING IS OCCURRING OR IS IMMINENT. MOST FLOOD RELATED DEATHS OCCURIN AUTOMOBILES. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS WATER COVERED BRIDGES...DIPS...OR LOW WATER CROSSINGS. NEVER TRY TO CROSS A FLOWING STREAM...EVEN A SMALL ONE...ON FOOT. TO ESCAPE RISING WATER MOVE UP TO HIGHERGROUND.

NASA is ready to move forward with the development of the Space Launch System -- an advanced heavy-lift launch vehicle that will provide an entirely new national capability for human exploration beyond Earth's orbit. The Space Launch System will give the nation a safe, affordable and sustainable means of reaching beyond our current limits and opening up new discoveries from the unique vantage point of space.

The Space Launch System, or SLS, will be designed to carry the Orion Multi-Purpose Crew Vehicle, as well as important cargo, equipment and science experiments to Earth's orbit and destinations beyond. Additionally, the SLS will serve as a back up for commercial and international partner transportation services to the International Space Station.

"This launch system will create good-paying American jobs, ensure continued U.S. leadership in space, and inspire millions around the world," NASA Administrator Charles Bolden said. "President Obama challenged us to be bold and dream big, and that's exactly what we are doing at NASA. While I was proud to fly on the space shuttle, kids today can now dream of one day walking on Mars."

The SLS rocket will incorporate technological investments from the Space Shuttle program and the Constellation program in order to take advantage of proven hardware and cutting-edge tooling and manufacturing technology that will significantly reduce development and operations costs. It will use a liquid hydrogen and liquid oxygen propulsion system, which will include the RS-25D/E from the Space Shuttle program for the core stage and the J-2X* engine for the upper stage. SLS will also use solid rocket boosters for the initial development flights, while follow-on boosters will be competed based on performance requirements and affordability considerations. The SLS will have an initial lift capacity of 70 metric tons (mT) and will be evolvable to 130 mT. The first developmental flight, or mission, is targeted for the end of 2017.

This specific architecture was selected, largely because it utilizes an evolvable development approach, which allows NASA to address high-cost development activities early on in the program and take advantage of higher buying power before inflation erodes the available funding of a fixed budget. This architecture also enables NASA to leverage existing capabilities and lower development costs by using liquid hydrogen and liquid oxygen for both the core and upper stages. Additionally, this architecture provides a modular launch vehicle that can be configured for specific mission needs using a variation of common elements. NASA may not need to lift 130 mT for each mission and the flexibility of this modular architecture allows the agency to use different core stage, upper stage, and first-stage booster combinations to achieve the most efficient launch vehicle for the desired mission.

"NASA has been making steady progress toward realizing the president's goal of deep space exploration, while doing so in a more affordable way," NASA Deputy Administrator Lori Garver said. "We have been driving down the costs on the Space Launch System and Orion contracts by adopting new ways of doing business and project hundreds of millions of dollars of savings each year."

The Space Launch System will be NASA's first exploration-class vehicle since the Saturn V took American astronauts to the moon over 40 years ago. With its superior lift capability, the SLS will expand our reach in the solar system and allow us to explore cis-lunar space, near-Earth asteroids, Mars and its moons and beyond. We will learn more about how the solar system formed, where Earth' water and organics originated and how life might be sustained in places far from our Earth's atmosphere and expand the boundaries of human exploration. These discoveries will change the way we understand ourselves, our planet, and its place in the universe.

....The Nov. 12 blastoff would come after at least one unmanned flight of the Soyuz rocket third stage responsible for an Aug. 24 mishap that destroyed a Progress cargo craft bound for the International Space Station.....Space station commander Andrey Borisenko, Russian cosmonaut Alexander Samokutyaev and NASA flight engineer Ronald Garan now aboard the space station are scheduled to return to Earth on Thursday night. Three more residents will remain on the space laboratory until mid-November.

The Nov. 12 launch date would allow the space station to remain partially-staffed with a crew of three until another trio of fliers blast off Dec. 20. That flight would restore the outpost to a full crew of six international astronauts and cosmonauts.....

AT 602 PM PDT...THE THUNDERSTORM THAT PRODUCED FLASH FLOODING OVERTHE WARNED AREA HAS WEAKENED...BUT THERE IS STILL LIKELY WATER ANDMUD FLOWING DOWN ARROYOS AND WASHES. THE FLASH FLOODING WARNINGREMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 630 PM PDT.

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE THE SOLEDAD CANYON...ACTON...ANDHIGHWAY 14 AND ADJACENT ROADWAYS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTOAREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLYDEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFULENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODEDROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING.IF YOU ARE IN THE WARNING AREA MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY.RESIDENTS LIVING ALONG STREAMS AND CREEKS SHOULD TAKE IMMEDIATEPRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSSSWIFTLY FLOWING WATERS OR WATERS OF UNKNOWN DEPTH BY FOOT OR BYAUTOMOBILE.

TO REPORT FLOODING...HAVE THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY RELAYYOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE INOXNARD.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE THE SOLEDAD CANYON...ACTON... HIGHWAY 14 AND ADJACENT ROADWAYS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF SMALLCREEKS AND STREAMS...HIGHWAYS AND UNDERPASSES. ADDITIONALLY...COUNTRYROADS AND FARMLANDS ALONG THE BANKS OF CREEKS...STREAMS AND OTHER LOWLYING AREAS ARE SUBJECT TO FLOODING.

FLOODING IS OCCURRING OR IS IMMINENT. MOST FLOOD RELATED DEATHS OCCURIN AUTOMOBILES. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS WATER COVERED BRIDGES...DIPS...OR LOW WATER CROSSINGS. NEVER TRY TO CROSS A FLOWING STREAM...EVEN A SMALL ONE...ON FOOT. TO ESCAPE RISING WATER MOVE UP TO HIGHERGROUND.

AT 336 PM PDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATEDTHAT A SECOND SEVERE THUNDERSTORM HAS DEVELOPED IN THE WARNING AREA.THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...ANDDAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED JUSTEAST OF CASTAIC LAKE...OR 12 MILES NORTHWEST OF SANTA CLARITA. THISSTORM WAS NEARLY STATIONARY.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE SANTA CLARITA...CASTAIC LAKEAND VAL VERDE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...CONTINUOUS CLOUD TOGROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. MOVE INDOORSIMMEDIATELY! LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES NUMBER ONE KILLERS. IF YOUARE ON THE LAKE...HEAD TO SHORE IMMEDIATELY. REMEMBER...IF YOU CANHEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.

NASA has signed a deal with Alliant Techsystems, the company that provided the space shuttle fleet's solid rocket boosters, to help develop a new vehicle that could launch astronauts into orbit by 2015, the space agency announced today (Sept. 13).

The new NASA deal with Utah-based Alliant Techsystems (ATK) is an unfunded Space Act Agreement to work together on the company's Liberty rocket. While NASA won't give ATK any money in the deal, the agency will provide expertise that could help ready the rocket for operational flights in the next four years, officials said.

"This agreement will provide the opportunity to look at the Liberty system to understand its design solution and risks, its capabilities and how it could be used to fly our NASA crew," said Ed Mango, NASA's commercial crew program manager, in a statement. [10 Private Spaceships Headed for Reality] ....

sp Even though that low is exiting east along the Cal-Mex border there is some good wraparound moisture coming at us from the north.

* AT 303 PM PDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 8 MILES NORTHEAST OF SANTA CLARITA...OR 11 MILES WEST OF ACTON. THIS STORM WAS NEARLY STATIONARY.

sp The science, technology, engineering and math problems involved in humans becoming a spacefaring species can be solved. Efforts in that direction have yielded and will continue to yield many and major side benefits. However for some humans the greatest motivator seems to be the fear or the domination of other humans. :^/

Rainman Thanks so much for the reminder for the readers! :^) I fell asleep early last night before putting one in my blog entry title.

I didn't set an alarm either and almost missed the launch myself. I was awakened this morning by pack of coyotes howling on my hillside. As I was settling down to fall back asleep I suddenly remembered and turned the TV on just seconds before the launch.

Our priorities are such that we will spend more in one month at war in Afghanistan (not Iraq and Afghanistan - just Afghanistan) than the cost of building, launching, and 5 years of operating the JWST. The cost of the bank bailout was more than the entire 50 year budget of NASA - astronaut training, engineering, launches, fuel, materials, etc., all included.

I think our country has benefited more in every way, including economically, from NASA's efforts than from either of those other expenses, or many others that could be listed. We are insane.I know you don't like it when I'm 'negative', LC, but at this point my greatest hope for our country is that we keep end-timers and Dominionists from getting their fingers near the nuclear launch button long enough for Europe and China and India to take over what we have so willingly, even gleefully, given up.I'll see myself out ...

....It is too early to say exactly when UARS will re-enter and what geographic area may be affected, but NASA is watching the satellite closely and will keep you informed. Visit this page for updates on the satellite's orbital track and predicted re-entry date.

NASA will post updates weekly until four days before the anticipated re-entry, then daily until about 24 hours before re-entry, and then at about 12 hours, six hours and two hours before re-entry. The updates will come from the Joint Space Operations Center of U.S. Strategic Command at Vandenberg Air Force Base, Calif., which works around the clock detecting, identifying and tracking all man-made objects in Earth orbit, including space junk.

The actual date of re-entry is difficult to predict because it depends on solar flux and the spacecraft's orientation as its orbit decays. As re-entry draws closer, predictions on the date will become more reliable.....

but NASA would like you to know

NASA's Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite, or UARS, is expected to re-enter Earth's atmosphere in late September or early October 2011, almost six years after the end of a productive scientific life. Although the spacecraft will break into pieces during re-entry, not all of it will burn up in the atmosphere.

The risk to public safety or property is extremely small, and safety is NASA's top priority. Since the beginning of the Space Age in the late-1950s, there have been no confirmed reports of an injury resulting from re-entering space objects. Nor is there a record of significant property damage resulting from a satellite re-entry.....

....One analysis of re-entry survivability for UARS components was performed several years ago with a software program called Object Re-entry Survival Analysis Tool, or ORSAT for short.

That computer analysis showed that about 150 component types, including the parent body of the satellite, will demise during re-entry, and 12 types (26 counting multiple components) would endure the fiery fall to Earth.

That appraisal indicated a surviving mass of 1,170 pounds (532 kilograms) falling within a debris footprint length of some 500 miles (800 kilometers).....