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Sunday, May 24, 2015

Pakistan in the eye of the storm

Last
week, Pakistan’s parliament voted to remain neutral in the civil war in Yemen,
angering Saudi Arabia and the Gulf Emirates. The decision came after five days
of debates and is the best illustration you could have of the moderating
influences of democracy over authoritarianism. You can be sure if the whole
process had been confined to backroom deals between the Sheikhs and the
Pakistan military or the Sharif brothers, Pakistan would have found it
difficult to resist the pressure. But because the whole thing was out in the
open, it became difficult to justify what almost all Pakistanis thought would
be a bad decision.

The
resolution is not binding, because Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif is supposed to
have all authority over the armed forces. We know this is not quite true, but
it does imply that it was not just the view of the Parliament that was key to
the Pakistani decision. Of course, if somehow the Pakistan Army thought that by
going to Yemen they could harm India, the decision to go would have been a
foregone conclusion. When it comes to national interest, the one factor which
always seems to trump Pakistani common sense is the perceived threat from
India. Fortunately, in this instance, India was not an issue.

Pakistani
defence minister Khwaja Muhammad Asif had revealed last week that the Saudis
had wanted the works — Pakistani troops, warships and fighter jets to battle
the allegedly Iran-backed Houthi rebels. A Pakistani refusal is bound to deeply
anger the Saudis because the latter see themselves as mentors of the former and
have helped Islamabad with dollops of money at various point in time. Further,
the Saudis provided the Sharifs succour when they were being persecuted by
Musharraf after he overthrew the government in 1999.

The
12-point resolution approved by Parliament said that Islamabad must maintain
“neutrality” in the conflict, it also calls on the “warring factions” to
resolve their differences through dialogue, it wanted the Pakistan government
to take up the issue through the UN Security Council. And, most curiously, it
thanked the People’s Republic of China for its assistance in the evacuation.

Pakistan
has good reasons to have rejected what could have become a quagmire for its
forces. Yemen is a vast under-developed region and prosecuting war there is no
picnic, as the Egyptians learnt in the 1960s. More important is the fact that
the Pakistan Army is fully committed to fighting its own civil war against a
hardened enemy in the tribal areas of the north-west. It is also important to
note that the war has the potential of becoming part of a larger Shia-Sunni
conflict that is dividing the Islamic world in the Middle-East, and Islamabad
is aware of the fact that not only does it border Shia Iran, but that some 20
per cent of its own population professes the Shia branch of Islam. Significantly,
last Thursday, Iran’s Foreign Minister Javad Zarif was in Islamabad for
meetings and he urged Prime Minister Sharif to avoid meddling in Yemen.

Iran is a
powerful neighbour and has the capacity of making things difficult for
Islamabad, considering that its other borders — with India and Afghanistan are
not too peaceful. As it is, the province of Balochistan is in turmoil and Iran
has the capacity of stirring up trouble there should Islamabad get out of line.
Iran would not want anything to come in the way of a nuclear deal being
negotiated with the US-led P 5+1, and neither — for their own reasons — would
the Europeans and the Chinese.

Where
does the release of Zakiur Rehman Lakhvi, the Lashkar-e-Taiba leader come in
all this? We can’t be sure, but perhaps there is a connection. It could be a
bone being thrown to the Sunni Islamists to prevent them from exercising their
street power at this crucial juncture. As it is, the Ahle-Hadis LeT’s version
of Islam is the closest to the version practiced in Saudi Arabia and this could
well be some sort of a balancing act.

The
reference to China in the parliament resolution is clearly aimed at telling the
Saudis that Pakistan is not entirely without friends, especially since the
United States has seen through its duplicitous ways and maintains an
essentially transactional relationship. In October 2011, the then Prime
Minister of Pakistan had described the relationship with Beijing as being
“higher than mountains, deeper than oceans, stronger than steel and sweeter
than honey.” But it has been abundantly evident that this love is one-sided.

The
Chinese have their own interests in a stable Saudi peninsula. Half of all their
crude imports come from the region and their ties with the countries of the
region have been expanding in recent years. Further, its One Belt One Road
initiative passes through the Red Sea. The Chinese are unlikely to underwrite
any Pakistani adventurism in Afghanistan or in relation to India. Neither are
they the kind of people who write out cheques at the drop of a hat. But at this
juncture, Islamabad knows that beggars cannot be choosers.

Mid Day
April 14, 2015

Last
week, Pakistan’s parliament voted to remain neutral in the civil war in
Yemen, angering Saudi Arabia and the Gulf Emirates. The decision came
after five days of debates and is the best illustration you could have
of the moderating influences of democracy over authoritarianism. You can
be sure if the whole process had been confined to backroom deals
between the Sheikhs and the Pakistan military or the Sharif brothers,
Pakistan would have found it difficult to resist the pressure. But
because the whole thing was out in the open, it became difficult to
justify what almost all Pakistanis thought would be a bad decision. -
See more at:
http://www.mid-day.com/articles/pakistan-in-the-eye-of-the-storm/16136175#sthash.V1ilMOC5.dpuf