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Iran's ambitions to produce 4 million barrels a day of oil and 1 million b/d of condensate by 2018 are likely unrealistic because US and European banks and companies are reluctant to take on high-risk investments, according to a report a Washington-based think tank will release Tuesday.

"A more realistic assessment would be an expansion of up to 800,000 b/d within six months and a major oil output rebound only after 2016, though even this pace would put Iran on course for a structural shift and acceleration from the current modest pace of economic growth," the Center for a New American Security report states.

Bijan Namdar Zanganeh, Iran's oil minister, has said once sanctions are lifted, production would climb by 1 million b/d, to 3.8 million b/d within six months, and to 4 million b/d by 2018.