I was on CBC radio’s Ottawa Morning with Hallie Cotnam today to talk about the Ottawa real estate market and the proposed (as yet unknown changes) to be introduced in the April 27 budget. (Here’s a link to that interview!) Those changes, as we know, are meant to cool down the Toronto housing market which saw a 33% year over year increase in prices.

Me and Hallie Cotnam. She looks a lot more alert than I do at 7 AM, that’s for sure!

On radio, there isn’t a lot of time to amplify the discussion, so I thought I’d take a minute to do so here.

First of all, while Ottawa’s market is hopping, it’s nowhere near as hot as Toronto’s. We saw a 17.5% increase in residential sales year over year and a 22% increase in condo sales in March. Prices were up 5.5%. So that’s a nice, healthy increase, but not out of whack for a market that’s been slow, almost stagnant, for the last several years.

One factor that shows the difference is our average days on market (that’s how long it takes to sell the average house). We’re at 92 in Ottawa. It was 12 in Toronto the last time I asked a realtor pal in that market.

We talked a bit today about the government’s stated goal of wanting to make housing more affordable. If that’s the case, some of the options being tossed around don’t make sense and could have unintended consequences.

For example, the last time the feds tried to slow down the housing market, they made it harder to borrow money. The changes to the mortgage rules made it harder for first time buyers to borrow. They certainly didn’t make housing more affordable for them; they had to come up with more money for down payments.

Similarly, the provincial government says it now wants to close a loophole that allowed landlords of post-1991 built buildings in Toronto to raise rents without being subject to rent controls. There are reports of condo tenants whose rents have doubled since that announcement while landlords try to get their increases in under the wire. Not exactly more affordable for those folks either.

I’ve heard the provincial minister, Charles De Sousa, talk about real estate speculators as well. He seems to be concerned about buyers who buy new builds and assign (sell) their contracts to new buyers for more money before closing. (In BC, this was happening with home purchases generally. The problem was addressed by requiring seller’s consent to any resales, and ensuring they get any profits.)

But in the condo market, those buyers — the ones who come in and often buy four or five condos before the shovel hits the ground and then assign their contracts for a profit before the buildings are finished — are often providing the financing the builder needs to reach the 70% in pre-sales required to get the project rolling. Shut them out, and you are shutting down a perfectly valid investment strategy (why shouldn’t I be able to make a profit when the underlying value of the property I bought rises in the year or two it takes for a condo building to be completed?). You may also find yourself with fewer condo developments,. That means less supply and higher prices.

Then there’s the foreign buyer tax in BC that may be replicated in the Ontario budget. Will it be targeted at Toronto only? Pundits credit the 15% increase in BC for a 40% drop in sales there.

First of all — are foreign buyers the reason behind Toronto housing prices? Do we know? And secondly, if they are, where are they from? We don’t have any data to answer that question. We can’t even be sure that the BC market was being driven by foreign purchasers; studies now suggest that it wasn’t and that it’s the uncertainty in the market those changes created that’s caused the present drop.

One thing we do know that Ottawa has lots of foreign buyers who come here to work in our technology sector, work at our hospitals and teach or study in our universities. Do we really want to discourage those people from finding affordable housing?

As I mentioned to Hallie, I was contacted by someone in BC last year who was directly impacted by the 15% foreign buyer tax. He was an American who’d been offered a job in the Lower Mainland. He decided to buy a home for his family — as I recall, he and his wife had four kids. He put down a hefty deposit, only to find out before closing, without any advance warning, that he had to come up with an extra 15% or forfeit his deposit. He couldn’t afford to do either. The new tax kicked in without any reprieve for those who’d already purchased.

Is that really the way we want to treat good faith buyers? Like some kind of banana republic where the inflation rate changes daily?

My problem with the government trying to fix the Toronto problem is that they have no idea what’s driving the market increase. It’s possible that the 15% foreign buyers tax in BC actually drove foreign buyers to Toronto and has driven up prices. Assuming that’s true, introducing a foreign buyer’s tax in Toronto could drive more buyers to Ottawa, making homes less affordable here, and then what? New taxes in Ottawa? It’s like a game of whack-a-mole. But the point is: we don’t know. There is no data.

Imagine a doctor saying to you, “I know you’re sick but I’m not sure why. Here’s a prescription based on your symptoms, without any accurate diagnosis. It may not make you better, but it could cause side effects you don’t like and it might just kill you.”

I’ll wait to see what the budget brings, but I’m not optimistic.

(One small correction from my CBC interview. The average sale price in Ottawa is currently is $415,467. Hallie had suggested $ 300K; I said I thought we were over $ 500 but I was thinking of sales volumes in March. That’s what happens when you get up at 5 in the morning for an early interview!)

And finally, always nice to see this kind of feedback, from our Mayor:

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Peggy Blair

www.peggyblair.ca

(And yes, I am also a mystery
author and former lawyer!)

WHAT MY CLIENTS THINK!

Mike Mitchell and Carolina Ayala

“Thank you very much Peggy, it was a real pleasure working with you! I’m in the military and I’ve bought and sold more than a few houses, and I can honestly say that I have never worked with a real estate agent quite like Peggy before; hard to imagine saying this, and this is a first… it was fun!

“Peggy went above and beyond, took charge, told us exactly what we needed to do for a quick sale, and even went shopping for a few little things that put the finishing touches on a beautifully staged home. As a result our home sold quickly for top dollar without conditions.

“It would be our pleasure to recommend Peggy to anyone selling their home. Very happy customers.”

Brian Moores and Viola Wedge-Moores

“We so appreciated having Peggy as our selling agent! She came to view the property armed with a keen sense of what had to be done to make it more attractive to buyers and provided sound advice about the selling price. She took time to review the agent-seller contract in detail with us and was very responsive to our queries throughout the process.

“She was highly active in preparing the house for sale and her staging was masterful, transforming an empty house into one which buyers could readily see the potential for making it their home. We were impressed with her communication as each development, e.g., showing, feedback, etc., was made known to us immediately. We wanted a quick sale and, success: the house sold within 5 days!!

“We have already recommended Peggy to a family member and do so to anyone looking for an agent passionate about her work and one who keeps her client’s best interests at the forefront. Thanks so much, Peggy, well done!”

Laura DeLuca

“It has been an absolute pleasure working with Peggy, I can’t thank her enough for her diligent work in helping me find and purchase my first condo. From the very start, Peggy took the time to explain all aspects of the home buying process along with answering any and all questions I had.

“Her honesty and outstanding knowledge gave me the confidence to know I was making the right decision. I couldn’t be happier, Peggy truly looks out for her client’s best interests and it shows!

“Her professional and upbeat personality helped pave the way for a wonderful home buying experience. I’d highly recommend Peggy for anyone looking to purchase their new home. Thank you again, Peggy!”

Hang Nguyen and Mark Kuske

“Peggy’s patience and keen eye was extremely valuable during our search and purchase. She was very hands on when it came to getting our house ready and staged to sell. Our house sold in 19 days! Thank you for everything! “

Dilia Ayala-Mayost and Gilles Mayost

“We recently purchased an investment property in Mckellar Heights. Our agent, Peggy Blair, was instrumental in this acquisition, guiding us through every step of the process: Initial offer, the counter offer and the final purchase agreement.

She has an excellent network of tradespeople we relied on to inspect the house and ensure that everything was up to par before we put up the unit for rent. Peggy staged the house and secured solid tenants within a week of closing – a record time!

“At all times, we felt we were in good hands and that Peggy had our interests at heart.

“Her knowledge of the industry, her professionalism and more importantly ,her unwavering sense of ethics greatly reduced our stress as first time investors.

“We consider ourselves very fortunate indeed to have had Peggy as our agent .”

Heather Richardson, TD Canada Trust

“I greatly enjoy working with Peggy Blair whose creative resourcefulness in staging a property for sale on a cost effective basis has yielded some fantastic results.

“The combination of her professionalism and her knowledge gives me great peace of mind that she is actively engaged in working in my best interest when selling a property.”

Cheryl Rogers

"Peggy helped me find and buy my first condominium. It was a new build and I found the whole process a bit intimidating. So much paperwork, so many options!

"She went through all the details, walked through the unit with me to highlight areas of interest or concern, introduced me to a wonderful real estate lawyer and summarized the deal with the selling agent and myself.

"She even helped with the design options and offered great advice on how to think about resale value when choosing items. She was so organized and efficient, I trusted her opinion completely and wound up with the best place for the best price.

"I would highly recommend Peggy to anyone looking for a bright, energetic agent who will look out for her client's best interest."

Tim Fairgrieve and Jane Harper

"Peggy is fantastic. Our family of five was moving from Vancouver to Ottawa: a new city where we didn’t know the neighbourhoods, schools, or the housing market. We were rescued by Peggy’s deep knowledge of the city, her attention to detail, her keen sense of the market, and her amazing energy.

"Ask her about a listing and she will personally view it and tell you everything you need to know. Email her a question late at night and you will have answers waiting in the morning.

"In just a few weeks with Peggy’s help we found a great house in a great neighbourhood where our children will be able to grow up. Searching for a house from 4,000 km away is not easy, but we could not be happier now."

Troy L.

"Thank you so much for your extraordinary efforts with respect to our home purchase. From the very beginning of our search to the successful conclusion, you worked tirelessly to find and secure a beautiful property.

"In fact, your professionalism, experience and extensive network made the difference. We are absolutely thrilled and very grateful."

Sayi Yendrapalli and Swapna Nannapaneni

"Peggy Blair was not only accommodating to all our needs but she was friendly, communicative, informative, genuine, and caring. She went above and beyond to help us make our new home buying process painless. I would highly recommend her to anyone looking to buy/sell a house."

Leslie Jamieson

"Having a good realtor is one thing but having one like Peggy who has a fantastic and responsive network of professionals who contribute to a seamless purchasing process is priceless."

Bill Schaper & Debbie Hantusch

"We were recently in the market for a cottage. Not just the first time buying a cottage, but the first time not buying a house directly from the builder.

"Peggy was a lifesaver. She first helped us to work through our options over a year ago to decide whether we wanted a larger house or to keep our current home and buy a cottage. The questions she asked at that point were invaluable in helping us to identify what we really wanted.

"Once we started looking, she knew just what we should be looking for, and did a skilful job of providing a sense of what was available in the market, which in turn helped to crystalize our real needs.

"Once we had found a property, she guided us through the buying process, arranged all of the property inspections on our behalf, walked us through what needed to happen, and did a superb job of negotiating.

"We’re incredibly happy with our experience. Peggy’s professionalism, expertise, and dedication to her clients mean we have no hesitation recommending her to others."

Adriano Palumbo

"Peggy masterfully engineered the sale of our Glebe home. At first, we thought the list price was too low. However, it was part of her strategy to try to generate multiple listings, and worked ingeniously. We ended up selling for $100K over the list price! I couldn’t be happier with how things turned out."

Patricia McLarnon

"I am so pleased to write this recommendation for Peggy Blair.

"I have relocated to Ottawa and had been searching for a home for the previous six months. Peggy was recommended to me after months of struggling to find the” right place” to call home. I contacted Peggy and gave her details of what I was looking for and she found exactly what I wanted in just over a week! AND, to my surprise, at a much lower cost than I expected.

"Peggy took the time to explain all required processes and paper work from the offer stage to closing. I felt very well taken care of and informed throughout. She made my home buying journey easy, stress free and enjoyable.

"As well, her legal and inspection recommendations were the best I’ve ever worked with and I recommend them as highly as I recommend her.

"Thank you Peggy, I’m so excited about my new home. I look forward to recommending you to future home buyers I know. You’re simply the best."

Greg and Joan Williams

"We were starting a search for a retirement home in Ottawa, and were referred to Peggy Blair by our daughter. We had some specific requirements and had chosen three areas in the city as our preferred neighbourhoods. After meeting with Peggy, she highlighted a completely different neighbourhood that we had not considered, and the property she showed us was perfect. We are now planning for our retirement move to our new home in Ottawa!

"In addition to Peggy being an expert real estate agent herself, she surrounds herself with and builds relationships with other professionals who help to make the entire experience a joy."

Emily Shaw

"We contacted Peggy at the recommendation of a mutual friend and could not be happier with her service.

"As first time homebuyers, we were unfamiliar with the whole process and Peggy took the time to explain every step and answer every question that we had. Her advice was always honest and in agreement with our interests.

“Because of Peggy, our experience with home buying was pleasant and straightforward. We will recommend Peggy wholeheartedly to anyone in need of a home!

Virginia Haddad and Jordan Mulholland

"It was an absolute pleasure working with Peggy. My husband and I were a bit desperate to find a house and get out of our current place. We had just had a baby and were living in a busy neighborhood close to downtown with lots of construction and commotion going on around us.. almost IMPOSSIBLE to get our son down for naps during the day.

"Not only did Peggy find us our dream home in the exact neighborhood we were hoping to live, but she was flexible enough to come to us and do any/all the running around required to make sure we had everything we needed for closing.

"From our very first meeting with Peggy she was straight forward, honest and extremely approachable. She made us feel important by always getting back to us quickly. She listened to our needs by making sure to only send us listings in our price range and to our specifications.

"We would HIGHLY recommend Peggy to anyone wanting a great house buying experience!"

Lu Ann Hill

"Peggy Blair is an excellent agent to buy or sell your property. She has a good eye for the details that make the difference. Peggy's knowledge of the real estate market makes a big difference in determining timing and price.

"She went above and beyond to help us prepare our property for sale and works diligently to get the best deal for her clients. I would not hesitate in calling upon her expertise and highly recommend her services."

Heather Wilson

"A very professional job. Extremely happy with her services."

John and Sue Gamble

"Just a short note to personally thank you for the excellent service and advice you provided Sue and I in the purchase of our new home. We are settling in nicely.

"Bottom line: we would use you again in a heartbeat .We have already given your name to close friends who are thinking of moving to this area."

Robert Moro

"I couldn't be happier with the work Peggy did to sell my home. She took care of all the details, from recommending contractors and painters and cleaners to prepare my home for sale, to shopping for the right fixtures to maximize the look and value of the property.

"I would be happy to recommend Peggy and her full service real estate skills to any of my friends looking to sell, or buy a property."

Andrew and Dotti MacNeil

"The inner city housing market in Ottawa can go from being hot to fickle within a week. Peggy was excellent at managing our expectations when it was both a sellers market, and, when it seamlessly transitioned into a buyers market. When buyers became cautious Peggy was very proactive in addressing their concerns through her extensive real estate experience and network within the industry.

"If you're looking for agent who will do more than put a for sale sign on your front lawn, we strongly recommend you speak with Peggy."

Lorena Duncan and Tom Sherwood

"Peggy was quick to understand what we were looking for in a home, and then to help us find what we wanted. She always responded promptly to our questions and concerns.

"During the negotiations leading to the purchase of our new home, Peggy’s coaching was competent and professional.

"We were always confident that she was representing us thoroughly. Even after the deal was completed, Peggy was a great source of information, advice and contacts for the various details of moving. We’re already recommending Peggy Blair to our friends!"

Pete Patterson

"Peggy handled my sale with enthusiasm and professionalism, but with a personal touch that took into account my unique situation and needs. Her advice went well beyond her duties as a real estate agent and I would recommend her to anyone who needs a guide through the stressful process of selling your home."

Alexandra Sutton

"I was recently transferred to Ottawa and needed to quickly find the right home in a great neighborhood.

"From the moment I contacted her, Peggy made herself available and provided excellent advice. Peggy immediately sent me a selection of houses for review and then developed a very efficient plan of house visits over a 2 day period. We found the perfect home and Peggy attended to every detail and followed-up quickly on my requests.

"I would recommend Peggy to anyone looking to buy or lease a home in Ottawa. Many thanks for all your help, Peggy! "

Sue and George Pike

"My husband and I are downsizing from a three-storey townhouse to a condo and Peggy has been invaluable in this process. I don't know what other realtors do for their clients but Peggy has certainly gone 'the extra mile' for us. She walked us through all the complications of purchasing the condo and is now in the process of getting our current home ready for sale.

"We're not particularly creative or interested in home decor ourselves so we were delighted to hand over the task of buying bathroom fixtures, tile, lighting, carpeting and linens to her. She has a terrific eye for these things. She's also lined up the tradespeople to install everything the minute we move out. And she's managed all of this on a very tight budget.

Sally Fletcher and Chris Gorman

"Peggy's tireless commitment to helping my husband sell his house at a fair price, and to searching for our new home, changed our perception of the value of realtors.

"Peggy surpassed our expectations when she staged his house at no cost to us, and when she made a strategic decision to help ‘seal the deal’ on the purchase of our new home.

"She has proven to be trustworthy and hard-working, and you can expect her to provide practical, sound advice on selling or buying a home."

Denise and Bob Couillard

"CONNECTED, RESOURCEFUL, HARDWORKING & ETHICAL

"We live in a world where everyone promises exceptional service but few deliver. This is not the case with Peggy Blair.

"From the onset; Peggy quickly became our go-to person. Whether it was organizing contractors, home staging, market analysis or final negotiations; Peggy was there every step of the way. She used every method of multi-media available to best market our home.

"Peggy worked tirelessly and she always put our interests first. It became very evident when she negotiated a deal (far better than our expectations) that not only was she a skilled negotiator but also respected by her peers.

"I would recommend Peggy without hesitation. You will never find a harder working realtor."

Kevin and Dorothy Love

"We contacted Peggy the evening we saw the property we wanted to purchase and asked her if it was possible to submit an offer the next day. Not only did Peggy have our offer ready to go in record time, her suggestions saved us several thousand dollars.

"From start to finish, she was knowledgeable and professional and a pleasure to have as our agent."

Bev and Frank Campbell

"We were lucky enough to rather randomly pick Peggy as our listing agent and to have her act on our behalf for the purchase of our new home. We learned to value her combination of real estate and legal knowledge as well as her highly ethical approach to real estate purchases and sales.

"Her recommendations for contractors, legal and inspection specialists were most welcome and her suggestions proved to be first class.

"Moreover, her relationships with her colleagues at Royal LePage Team Realty proved to be invaluable. She did her homework on the value of our home so that we got a very good price.

"She was also instrumental in establishing very positive connections with the seller of our new home. Thanks, Peggy!”

Kerri Gerow and Marie Bilodeau

"Peggy understood our needs and wants immediately and even picked the perfect neighbourhood for us! The whole process was so smooth and well-handled that we're still a bit in shock at how great a house we found, for such an amazing price.

"If you want a smooth and fun house purchasing journey, we can't recommend Peggy highly enough!"

H.F.

"Anybody looking for an efficient and experienced realtor must work with Peggy. I’d met many of them and unlike many of her colleagues she wasn’t too pushy and always provided me with sound advice to make my own decision.

"Her vast professional network makes it easy to find a lawyer, broker, handyman or movers. It’s without a doubt and a great pleasure that I recommend Peggy for helping you to find your dream home."

Marilyn Glenn

"I could not recommend Peggy more highly. She went out of her way to see that my condo was shown to many people and that is was shown in its best light. She went so far as to stage it beautifully, even using some items from her own home.

"Peggy is a hard worker and has all the qualities you need to move your property as you would like: She has Intelligence, Integrity, and Imagination."

Diana Kirkwood

“To our Wonderful Real Estate Agent. Jocelyn, Tanya, Jamie and I would like to thank you for the wonderful job you did in finding us the perfect home. You were excellent in helping us determine the best location (close to transportation, shopping), our list of desired features and within our price range. You were always patient to answer all our questions and were instrumental in sealing the deal. Thanks so much!"

Chris and Jing James

"It has been an absolute pleasure working with Peggy to buy our first home. She went out of her way (effort and distance) to help us find the perfect house, and when we did, she worked hard to make sure everything was in perfect order."

Hayden Trenholm and Liz Westbrook

"As seller and buyer, we were able to count on Peggy for smart strategy, keen insight, and rapid action backed up by integrity, attention to detail, and sheer hard work. Thanks for an amazing job!"

Heather Richardson, TD Waterhouse Private Trust

"I recently worked with Peggy in the sale of a condominium owned by an estate for which we were acting as corporate executor. She was highly professional and had a comprehensive knowledge of the latest trends and developments in the Ottawa real estate market.

"Peggy not only made very helpful suggestions which increased the saleability of the property but she did so on a very cost-effective basis.

“She’s wonderfully connected to other professionals in the home renovation business and was of invaluable assistance in arranging and coordinating the work that needed to take place. We had a very successful sale and maximized the benefits to the beneficiaries. I would highly recommend Peggy’s services.”

Anne Schroder

"Peggy is thorough and great at follow-up, setting the perfect example for how buying or renting property should work. Her legal background combined with her own personal real estate experience makes her the kind of agent who anticipates the questions you might have and has answers at the ready.

"As a new home buyer she was there to walk me through the process and hold my hand through the many steps, continuing to stay in touch even after the deal was closed. I am happy to recommend her to anyone looking to buy or rent property in the Ottawa area."

Ian Morrison

“I contacted Peggy upon returning from several years overseas, with an urgent need to find a place to live and no knowledge of the Ottawa real estate market. I found a place I loved and closed a deal within about three weeks. Peggy not only managed the real estate process efficiently and effectively, but also calmly dealt with my nerves as a first time buyer with a serious overlay of reverse culture shock! She gives practical and sensible advice to her clients, with patience and humour.”