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Obama campaign manager David Plouffe predicted flatly Friday that Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (D-N.Y.) will “fail” to make meaningful progress toward the presidential nomination in the big Ohio and Texas primaries on Tuesday.

“They have a huge task in front of them, which is to try to erase this pledged delegate lead,” Plouffe said on a conference call with reporters. “They are going to fail by that measure. … This isn’t whether they can skate by and win the popular vote narrowly.”

“It’s 3 a.m. and your children are safe and asleep,” the male narrator says. “But there’s a phone in the White House and it’s ringing. Something’s happening in the world. Your vote will decide who answers that call.”

The ad has echoes of a famous “red telephone” spot that Roy Spence, now a Clinton adviser, made in 1984 for former Vice President Walter Mondale when he was seeking the Democratic nomination against Gary Hart.

Plouffe said dismissively: “Senator Clinton has already had her red phone moment, and it was the [2002] decision whether to allow George Bush to invade Iraq. She answered affirmatively. She did not read the National Intelligence Estimate, so she didn’t do her homework either.”

Plouffe repeated the “red phone” comment several times, saying voters will choose based on judgment. “Do they trust the judgment of these candidates on not just red-phone issues, but generally, … both domestically and internationally?” he asked.

At the start of the call, Plouffe read back predictions by Clinton campaign officials that they would be nearly tied – or even ahead – in the delegate count after March 4, an eventuality that now seems unlikely even if Clinton has a strong day.

“Those are their own benchmarks,” Plouffe said. “The Clinton campaign has to begin winning big states by big margins to have any hope of erasing this delegate deficit. … The most likely outcome Tuesday is not a huge delegate swing either way.”

The latest CBS News delegate count has Obama at 1,373 and Clinton at 1,265. That includes the party insiders known as superdelegates. The count for pledged delegates – those allocated based on primaries and caucuses – is Obama at 1,192 and Clinton at 1,035.

Plouffe said that if the Ohio vote is close – say, less than 5 percent – the leader will pick up only three delegates. He referred to the press role as “referees” of how the results will be interpreted, and he sought to convince reporters that even if Clinton wins the popular vote in one of the states, she is likely to still face an insurmountable deficit in the delegate count.

After the call, the Clinton campaign e-mailed a memo titled, "Obama Must-Wins": "The media has anointed Barack Obama the presumptive nominee and he's playing the part. With an eleven-state winning streak coming out of February, Senator Obama is riding a surge of momentum that has enabled him to pour unprecedented resources into Texas, Ohio, Rhode Island and Vermont. ... Senator Obama has campaigned hard in these states. He has spent time meeting editorial boards, courting endorsers, holding rallies, and - of course - making speeches. If he cannot win all of these states with all this effort, there's a problem."

David Plouffe has his opinion , I am not soo sure it is correct ? The polling information might suggest he is wrong . If he is , what will he say ? Will it be something we have not heard before ? It will be nice if he and Axelrod apologized to Bill Clinton for the racist charge ?Will he blame it on New Hampshire women and the " Bradley Factor " ? The only problem with that charge is that it occurred during Mayor Bradley 's first run for Mayor of Los Angeles . Other factors contributed to his defeat when he ran for Governor .

The problem is that Obama needs to seal the deal. He has had a lot of momentum since South Carolina but still Clinton is hanging around. If Clinton wins narrowly both Texas and Ohio that would spell trouble for Obama. He has had incredible press, incredible funding, incredible support from the left and has been promoted by media, such as Keith Olberman. He needs to come to the convention in August as the nominee not as the guy who squeeked by on a technicality. Where's the beef? If he cannot win a big state against Clinton in the Democratic primary how does he expect to do in the Fall. I think he will win both states, however. If he doesn't win his momentum is beginning to flag and Clinton would be ending the primaries with the momentum. At this point the delegate fight is a mere technicality, as neither candidate will have enough to win at the convention with their pledged delegates. Obama's people would have to make a case for their candidate to the rank and file that even though he has lost all but one major primary he should be the nominee. The problem for the so called leftists of progressives and independents that supported Obama will be left out of the convention because most are not party members. But he should win easily in Ohio and Texas to prevent any problems.

This is not the sort of campaign ad that any Democrat should make because they are going to look weak next to McCain by making that sort of comparison. The Dems should talk about anything but national security in this campaign. In any case, I would trust Barack Obama to be commander-in-chief long before I would trust Hillary Clinton.

Obama’s NAFTA double-talk confirmed: CTV February 29, 2008 After reporting on Barack Obama’s dance with the Canadians on NAFTA yesterday, Canadian broadcaster CTV got accused of perpetrating a smear against the Democratic front-runner. They insisted that Obama meant every word he said about overturning the free-trade treaty, and that no one had contacted the Canadian diplomatic corps to reassure them that it was mere demagoguery. CTV responded today by naming names — and suddenly the Obama campaign has grown quiet:

The Obama campaign told CTV late Thursday night that no message was passed to the Canadian government that suggests that Obama does not mean what he says about opting out of NAFTA if it is not renegotiated.

However, the Obama camp did not respond to repeated questions from CTV on reports that a conversation on this matter was held between Obama’s senior economic adviser — Austan Goolsbee — and the Canadian Consulate General in Chicago.

Earlier Thursday, the Obama campaign insisted that no conversations have taken place with any of its senior ranks and representatives of the Canadian government on the NAFTA issue. On Thursday night, CTV spoke with Goolsbee, but he refused to say whether he had such a conversation with the Canadian government office in Chicago. He also said he has been told to direct any questions to the campaign headquarters.

Who is Austin Goolsbee? According to this press release from last September, Goolsbee serves as the Senior Economic Advisor to the Obama campaign. He was highly touted by Obama in his visit to Iowa in that month, when he showed his intellectual chops by bringing Goolsbee along with a raft of other advisers, in part to show that he wasn’t a political lightweight.

It will be rather hard to distance himself from Goolsbee at this point. If Goolsbee spent time reassuring the Canadians sotto voce that Obama was merely demagoguing on NAFTA, then voters need to understand that the supposed “new politics” of Obama smells very similar to that of the same old lies and empty rhetoric we have heard from the Beltway for decades. And without that “new politics”, Obama is nothing more than an empty suit with a pleasant voice.

UPDATE: ABC also gets some refusal to confirm or deny from both Goolsbee and the Canadian diplomat in question, Georges Rioux.

What's this "Commander of Chief" statement by Hussein Obama? Gees, this guy must be a retard. I've never heard W use that title. Heck, we've been told how intelligent this guy is all this time, and he doesn't know the real title? See Dems, you get what you give sometimes. I wonder if the press will run this time after time for the next 20+ years, like Dan Quaille's potato incident? Sucks when people accuse an intelligent person of being a retard, huh? How does it feel to be us? Maybe Mr Hussein Obama is human after all. Of course Obama isn't a retard, or he wouldn't be where he is today. Let's see you cowardly Dems give W the same consideration. It'll never happen, because by virtue of being Dems, you just don't have it in you to be honest.

This is a pathetic sort of ad for Hillary "I loathe the military" Clinton to make, but this is her desperate last gasp attempt. She is going to lose in Texas next Tuesday and she is probably going to lose in Ohio too, then it is all over for Hillary Clinton. Who in his right mind is buying her "Obama must win" rhetoric either? He won the last 11 contests in a row leads by 160 delegates.

ObamaBlog Question #22- Will President Obama Be Able to Withstand The Unspeakable Constituent Pressure That He Will Face? Upon being inaugurated as the 44th President of the United States on January the 20th, 2009, unrealistic expectations will assault Barack Obama from every side as he would begin to experience the crushing burden associated with being the first African American president. On one hand, he will be buffeted by segments of the African American population who will relentlessly pressure him to put their agenda at the top of his political calendar. If Obama refuses to succumb to the African American agenda, he will be labeled as an Uncle Tom, an uppity ******, a pawn of liberal whites who is a traitor to his race. On the other hand, if he even gives a scintilla of a hint of cowtowing to the African American agenda, he will be vociferously and interminally attacked by whites, Latinos, Asians, and others. This would be especially noticeable as it pertains to his relationship with the Congressional Black Caucus. If Obama gives any indication that he is acting favorably toward legislation sponsored or supported by the CBC, his detractors will gleefully pounce upon him like political vultures and will label him as nothing more than a black pawn in the hands of black liberals who, according to Obama's critics, only want to use a President Obama to further the cause of Black America. www.shermancrockett.com/blog

I don't think this ad works for Hillary: 1) She doesn't have the foreign affair gravitas to make you think "Oh yeah, Hillary will take the call". McCain has it, but Hillary doesn't 2) TX and OH are open primaries and essentially there are 4 candidates vying for your vote. Does this ad stir Republicans to vote in the Dem primary to make sure that HRC (or her husband) does not pick up the phone? I bet you it does.

ObamaBlog Question #21- Will President Obama Bring African Nations to The Political Power Table?- www.shermancrockett.com/blog

I almost tremble as I write this blog. How is it that Africa, the cradle of civilization and the most resource-rich continent on the face of the earth is often treated like an unwanted stepchild? Why is it that no African (or Latin American) nations are members of the world's nuclear club? Why is our perspective about Africa still so often based on negative Tarzanesque stereoptypes?

Great! Children will be safe if the president is supported by the people. If the president is not stable enough and divisive, we do not stand a chance. I think the problem is the fear of the people not the fear of Obama.

netthreat ....MSNBC has all ready predicted 9 percent of the Democratic Primary vote in Texas , will be Republican . Do you really think that is a " unity vote " , or " bringing people together " ? I suspect that there may be another agenda by them .