Why the Last Toss-Up Dooms the Dems (Even if They Win)

BELLEVUE, Wash. — This is going to sound like one of those platitudes politicians save for acceptance speeches, but here's the thing: Dino Rossi really was counted out, and more than once. He'd been counted out in the Washington governor's race in 2004, which ended in a hotly contested recount Rossi lost by 131 votes. And he was counted out this year as the Republican candidate for Senate here by almost everyone, including Nate Silver's FiveThirtyEight blog, which put his chances at 21 percent.

But that's statistics for you. For the voters I spoke with throughout the day at the polls and Rossi's piñata-less party — still down 1 percent this morning, he appeared to be one of the last Senate candidates awaiting news — the case against him didn't seem so stark. The case against Democratic incumbent Patty Murray, though, well that might just be the untold story of the night.

On Election Day, Rossi was down in most polls by a couple points, sure, but he'd been up at a number of points beforehand. And since voting in Washington State takes place almost entirely by mail, that Tuesday-at-eight cutoff doesn't matter as much. It's hard to get a sense of voter enthusiasm when you can't actually see the voters. So you had two options: look at the numbers, or look at the general mood. And the mood was pretty good for the GOP.

Rossi represents that strange contradiction at the heart of this year's slate of nominees from the Republican establishment: something new, but something old. A longtime state representative who ran twice unsuccessfully for governor, he said he "came out of retirement" for the race — and he did so to beat a Tea Party challenger in the primaries. And now here he is in the final undecided big contest of 2010, possibly with another recount on his hands, and probably facing retirement again instead of that acceptance speech, but you've got to say this for Dino Rossi: On a day when the electorate in all but two states said it voted against a candidate, the fact that he was the de facto candidate reveals something about that mood for you... and nothing but more bad news for the Democrats.

"To be honest, I voted for him because I didn't like his competition," one supporter told me at Rossi meet-and-greet at a bar in Tacoma on Tuesday afternoon. "I'm not a GOP voter, but I've had enough of Patti Murray. He seems fairly moderate."

"And his name is Dino," shouted his friend.

Outside one of the few places in the state that has physical voting booths, supporters were also, well, kinda unsupportive. "Murray's been there for too long," said one. "It's time for a change." Another: "I don't like how things are going, and I want something different."

At Republican victory parties across the country, the talk from the top-down was of referendum and repudiation. "Change course" was John Boehner's phrase. In Florida, Marco Rubio went further: "We make a great mistake if we believe that tonight these results are somehow an embrace of the Republican Party," said the first-time senator, instead casting the results as "a second chance."

And you could hear the message from the bottom-up here in Bellevue, even from the people motivated enough to come to Rossi's "victory" party. "I voted for Dino Rossi because of a lifetime of putting up with vote after vote from Patti Murray," said one. "Every time I see anything from the Senate, I get mad."

The ones that were truly enthusiastic seemed, well, kinda crazy — crazy enough that all of the not-too-crazy attendees gave them a wide berth. The words I heard at the party before any hard results came in were the sort of timid, post-traumatic winces you heard from Democrats between, say, 2002 and 2006: "cautiously optimistic," "maybe," "who knows." There were a lot of teenagers in formalwear, and a lot of exhortations to "party" that were only visibly followed by one drunk fellow telling gay jokes rather too loudly. Even though the closeness of the polls would indicate that a recount might be good for Rossi, his supporters had been burned by the experience of the governor's race six years ago. "We have a distrust of the process," one said. "We don't trust the people responsible for it. We've seen it happen before."

This is not to say that things were entirely dour. At one point, someone started handing out fliers offering framed plaques commemorating Rossi's victory; they would be mounted on wood and showed a space where, it was promised, WILL BE 2010 VICTORY PHOTO. The flier did not list a cost, though it was a limited edition of 250. So someone was hopeful, though it's also worth noting that they make WORLD CHAMPION hats for both teams in the NBA Finals ahead of time, and the ones that don't get used get shipped off to Africa. The main message from the podium was that volunteers needed to keep phone-banking, even after the polls closed. This was even the message when Rossi himself took the podium at 8:45.

Two hours later, the DJ was playing "Under Pressure" and the state hadn't updated results in a solid hour and a half. Everyone in the room was going a little nuts. People started approaching the press area and asking to use our computers. "The key is where the results haven't come in from yet," said another supporter, punching at a mouse pad over one reporter's shoulder. "If King County" — the heavily Democratic county where Seattle sits — "has all their results in, we can still do this." Rossi was down by about 17,000 votes. As of this posting, it was closer to 14,000.

And as I left, three women got up on stage, holding a Rossi sign aloft and singing along to "God Bless the USA." They started a chant: Dee-NO! Dee-NO! Dee-NO!

No one joined in, but that might be good enough for Republicans these days, with or without the Tea Party.

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Michael Barthel has written about politics and pop culture for The Awl, Salon, The Village Voice, and The Portland Mercury.

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