economic power shift

Created by Ross Dawson and the Future Exploration Network team

Published under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 2.5 licence

rossdawson.com

futureexploration.net

ExaTrends* of the Decade: 2010s

*Exa = 10 18 = Mega3

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Map of the Decade: 2010s

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ExaTrends of the Decade: 2010s

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The Zeitgeist: 2011

augmented humanMore than ever before, we can transcend our human abilities. Traditional memory aids are supplemented by augmented reality glasses or contact lenses, thought interfaces allow us to control machines, exoskeletons give us superhuman power. Machines will not take over humanity because they will be us.

energy switchThe way we use energy will change faster than ever before in human history. Renewable energy sources, electric cars, and strict energy accounting, driven in part by carbon taxes on fossil fuels, will transform transportation and large chunks of the economy, faster than we currently imagine.

bio destinyNow that biological and genomic technologies are largely driven by information technologies, they are on the same exponential trajectory. Medicines personalized to the individual, genetic modication of our children, drugs to increase intelligence, and life extension will all become commonplace.

everything mediaWhat we knew as media has exploded far beyond its traditional boundaries to encompass most social activity, how organizations function, and indeed the creation of almost all economic value. Even as newspaper extinction proceeds apace, the best media operators will thrive.

climate clashesThe divide between believers and dis-believers in climate change and the necessity for action is increasing. Beyond that, views on the potential of planetary engineering will cut to the heart of the divide on faith in or fear of technology, Whatever the meteorological data that emerges, it will tear us apart.

global talentTalent is everywhere. As organizations shift to networks, transcending workplaces, success will be driven by how well they can attract the most talented, those who can choose where, how, and why they work. Real-time translation software will enable true multi-cultural teams. Wealth will ow to the talented, wherever they are.

collective intelligenceIn a world of innite information and diversity of opinion we will not drown, but harness our dormant potential to be more together than we are individually. Crowdsourcing platforms and aggregators of insight will be part of the planks that create the reality of a global brain, expressing our destiny.

haves and have nots

Across communities, nations, and the world, there is a keen risk of increasing separation between those who have access to technology, tools, and basic needs, and those who do not. This is not inevitable. However it will require concerted action around the world to avoid an increasing schism between us.

culture jammingRemix culture will surge, with everybody taking and jamming up slices of everything and anything to express themselves, while intellectual property law fails to keep pace. Every culture on the planet will reach everywhere the only culture we will know is a global mashed-up emergent culture that changes by the minute.

organizations to networksBy the end of this decade close to half the workforce will be working independently, often across national boundaries. Companies will function on social networks and gaming platforms, professionals will work for many clients, and many of todays companies will be supplanted by networks of experts.

demographic crunchMany developed nations will start hitting the wall in their ability to support their elderly. The contrast with the rapid growth of developing nations will bring into focus the turn in economic fortunes. The inevitable result is mass migration, licit or illicit.

reputation economyEmerging measures of reputation will shape business and society, providing increasingly accurate views of the trustworthiness of individuals and companies. They will enable far more efcient business, make dating easier, help to lter information overload, and allow no space for the dodgy to hide.

economic power shift

The sheer weight of Chinas burgeoning economy together with Indias rise will change the business worlds center of gravity. The Far East will fund the continued proigate spending of the West. The weightless economy based on innovation, media, and professional services will dominate growth.

technology awakensThe 2002 book Living Networks described how the rise of a hyperconnected world is literally bringing to life the networks that connect us. Soon a profusion of billions of richly connected devices will together manifest behaviors beyond all expectations, evolving themselves and seeking beauty.

individuals

business

government

planet

society

Created by Ross Dawson and the Future Exploration Network team

Published under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 2.5 licence

rossdawson.com

futureexploration.net

The Zeitgeist: 2011 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11

networked or not? debt anxiety mobile universe end of 9 to 5 brands in the blender sensory indulgence immersive entertainment terror tomorrow social news curation wrath of crowds everyone nakedWe are all facing a fundamental choice that will shape our lives. Many dive headlong into a world of always-on connection, open social networks, and oversharing. A few cry halt and choose to live only in the old world of tight-knit personal communication. The result is an increasing rift across society. With the global economy seemingly continually teetering on the verge of an abyss, few feel assured about the next few months, let alone beyond. Determined debt avoidance will push discount hunting and postponement of desire. Governments nd that debt is the unavoidable elephant that tramples on their best-laid plans. We experience the explosive inection point of almost everything we know shifting to mobile. The innite resources of the web are used mainly on mobile devices, location-based services give us context whereer we go, and printed newspapers and magazines are supplanted by the iPad. Our entire world will be wherever we are. Work has already moved far beyond the ofce. Organizations respond by offering exibility to avoid trafc, pick up the kids, and manage personal affairs at work. The dramatic rise of global work means many have phone calls at odd hours or nd their primary clients or suppliers in far-ung places. Work now transcends time. The time it takes for a powerful new brand to grow is the same it takes for an old brand to be trashed: next to no time. As reputation shifts from corporations to individuals, trying to keep control has the opposite effect. Chopping and remixing brand identity is better done by choice than by others. With many of our basic desires assuaged, we are free to indulge our senses, exploring how richly we can taste, feel, hear, and see. Fine dining explodes as an affordable luxury, while we all become oenophiles. Sensory luxury at home as well as on excursions is a basic expectation. Aldous Huxleys vision of the feelies is here, as we use surround sound, big screens, 3D, Kinect motion sensors, video glasses, augmented reality, haptic suits, and more to give us a complete experience of our entertainment. Any and all technology that immerses us in other worlds is taken up with alacrity. With terror yesterday and terror tomorrow, the interregnum is more tedious than terrifying. Calls rise for personal freedom and inviolate junk. That is, until tomorrow becomes today, bringing additional control and surveillance to everyday life, with more pushback than last time. Who goes to the newspaper front page or 6pm news for their news x? As more of us share what we like and who our friends are, individually curated news is at each of our ngertips. Web, tablets, and mobiles will offer us the all the news that ts who we are. BP and Nestl have experienced how global mobs can egg each other on and amplify their voices to ravage reputations. Across nations, politics is becoming more volatile, with missteps and mismatched moods crystallizing concerted opposition. The wrath of many will be expressed more powerfully than ever before. WikiLeaks moving into the crosshairs marks the point when society becomes transparent. As individuals we are already scrutinized by marketers who know us better than we do. Corporations succeed governments in their fear of inner workings being unmasked. Many rail and ail but there is no going back.

Page 1

Map of the Decade: 2010s

Page 2

ExaTrends of the Decade: 2010s

Page 3

The Zeitgeist: 2011

Ross Dawson is globally recognized as a leading futurist, entrepreneur, keynote speaker, and bestselling author. He is founding Chairman of Advanced Human Technologies, Future Exploration Network, The Insight Exchange, and Repyoot. Keynote Speaker. Dawson delivers inspirational keynotes around the world on the future of business. Strategy Advisor. Dawson helps senior executive teams to prepare for the future.