What are the chances of a White Christmas in NYC this year?

The chance of getting a White Christmas in New York City this year is sadly unlikely, but not impossible. The team behind the Omni Calculator Project created an online tool that provides the probability of snowfall in major cities across the United States as well as the closest White Christmas–meaning at least one inch of snowfall on Dec. 25–near that city. While the White Christmas Calculator says NYC has a roughly 12 percent chance of seeing snow next Tuesday, there are four nearby cities with a nearly 50 percent chance of enjoying some flurries.

The last time it snowed at least one inch on Christmas in NYC was in 2009. It comes as no surprise the odds are much better north of the city and Upstate. According to Omni, the nearest cities with a higher chance of a White Christmas include Albany, Worcester, Lowell, and Syracuse.