If you’re wondering whether the scattered rain showers that fell across Houston today came courtesy of Hurricane Dolly, the answer’s yes. Even though the Houston metro area will likely be about 350 miles away from the storm’s point of landfall, near the Texas-Mexico border, the city will still feel some effects.

Foremost we should get wet (though not nearly as wet as the Valley), which should cool things off. Here’s the latest precipitation estimates from the National Weather Service for now through Friday evening:

NWS

Under the current estimates parts of the Valley should get more than 14 inches of rain, an amount that likely will cause significant flooding. People who live there should prepare as best they can.

Locally, the models suggest Dolly could produce between 2 and 3 inches along the coast, with the rainfall tapering off for northern parts of southeast Texas. That’s about what the local office of the National Weather Service forecasts for Dolly, with higher totals near Matagorda Bay.

There’s also a slight chance, less than 20 percent, that Dolly could produce tropical storm-force winds across southern portions of Houston. Here’s the National Hurricane Center’s estimated probability of such winds for Texas:

National Hurricane Center

Tide levels along the southeast Texas coast could also approach 4 feet above normal due to the storm’s winds.

The bottom line: If you’re seeking a respite from the recent 11-day run of 95+ degree days, enjoy the weather for the next few days. Daytime temperatures may only reach 90. Once Dolly passes the sun will return, sending temperatures back into the upper 90s, with low rain chances.

I’ll have a full update on Dolly in the morning, and its likely impacts on South Texas. After the storm makes landfall I’ll return to normal blogging, and I promise to deliver and discuss results from our global warming survey.

Thanks for solid updates on tropical systems. We are way below ‘normal’ in temps all winter, spring and summer where I live… am enjoying it! I remember growing up in Columbus, Ga and having several days above 100 in a row…. do I miss the south? Nah not that much