Andrew Sentance said a failure to tighten policy now would require even higher borrowing costs in the future. Photograph: David Levene for the Guardian

The Bank of England's leading inflation "hawk" today stepped up his campaign for an immediate increase in interest rates after the latest snapshot of the cost of living showed a surprise rise in inflation. Andrew Sentance, one of the nine members of Threadneedle Street's monetary policy committee (MPC) said a failure to tighten policy now would require even higher borrowing costs in the future.

Speaking to the BBC's World at One after news that inflation as measured by the consumer prices index (CPI) rose from 3.2% to 3.3% last month, Sentance said: "The worry I would have is that if we don't begin to move interest rates up gradually now we will find further down the track we actually have to move them up more sharply. That could deliver a bigger jolt to confidence in the economy in the future."

Sentance has been a lone voice on the MPC in his call for the Bank to raise interest rates from the emergency level of 0.5% where they have been pegged since early 2009. However, he received support from some City analysts today following the release of ONS data showing inflation moving further away from the government's 2% target. Dearer food, the impact of rising cotton prices on the cost of clothes, and higher mark ups for furniture and furnishings were the main factors behind the November increase.

The ONS said there was anecdotal evidence to suggest that Russia's ban on grain and wheat exports following summer droughts was in part to blame for food inflation of almost 5%. Leading UK retailers have also warned that consumers will be affected by the jump in the cost of cotton to a 15-year high.

The majority on the MPC have argued that the rise in inflation is temporary, blaming commodity prices and the 25% drop in the value of the pound since the onset of the financial crisis in 2007. Mervyn King, the Bank's governor, told the chancellor. George Osborne. in an explanatory letter last month that inflation is likely to remain elevated for the whole of next year.

Michael Saunders, UK economist at Citigroup, said today: "No other major industrial country has experienced such persistent inflation overshoots at any point in recent years. Inflation is also far above the MPC's forecasts: a year ago they predicted that (even with this year's VAT hike) CPI inflation in the fourth quarter of 2010 would be 1.6-1.7%; the outturn is roughly twice that.

"In February 2010, after this year's VAT hike, the MPC forecast CPI inflation in the fourth quarter of 2010 to be 1.5%. The overshoot is far bigger than can be attributed just to recent developments in oil and other commodity prices."

Saunders added: "We believe a lack of accurate inflation forecasts, plus the MPC's habit of downplaying repeated inflation overshoots, could lead to a further rise in long-term inflation expectations and erosion of the inflation target's credibility in coming months."

Inflation is expected to rise further over the coming months as record petrol prices, the January increase in VAT to 20% and higher rail and energy costs push up the cost of living.

Inflation has been above its 2% target for the past year and has been 3% or higher in every month of 2010 so far. The retail prices index, an alternative measure of inflation often used as the benchmark for wage settlements, rose from 4.5% to 4.7% last month.

Simon Ward, of Henderson Global Investors, said: "High inflation threatens to slow the economic recovery by squeezing real incomes and money balances. By refusing to raise interest rates because of coming fiscal tightening, the Bank is encouraging high pass-through of cost-push pressures and a rise in inflationary expectations, thereby entrenching the current overshoot. Far from supporting the economy, its actions risk damaging medium-term growth prospects."

But Scott Corfe, analyst at the Centre for Economic and Business Research, said slack in the labour market would provide a counterweight to upward price pressure from the VAT increase and rising global commodity prices.

"It is unclear whether, at a time of pay freezes and underemployment, firms will be able to pass on input price rises to consumers without seeing a notable loss of demand. This should place a limit on inflation next year, and provide a rationale for keeping the Bank of England base rate on hold."