Best picture? Says who?

"The Godfather" as best picture of 1972 was an offer the motion picture academy could not refuse. Forty years later it is considered among the greatest films ever made. PARAMOUNT PICTURES

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Stanley Kubrick's "2001: A Space Odyssey" is considered one of the greatest films of all time, but it didn't even get a Oscar best-picture nomination for 1968, the year "Oliver!" won the top prize. TURNER ENTERTAINMENT

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"A Beautiful Mind," starring Russell Crowe and Jennifer Connelly, won the best picture Oscar for 2001, though one could make a case that other films that year were more deserving. ELI REED, UNIVERSAL STUDIOS

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The academy chose "Casablanca" as the best picture of 1942. Over the past seven decades, it has achieved monumental status as a flawlessly executed film. ASSOCIATED PRESS

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The American Film Institute selected "Citizen Kane" as the No. 1 movie produced during the first 100 years of American filmmaking. However, the academy didn't even think it was the best movie of 1941, giving that honor to "How Green Was My Valley." ASSOCIATED PRESS

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"Forrest Gump" was a popular film that has held up over the years, though there are those who say "Pulp Fiction" or "The Shawshank Redemption" were more deserving of the best-picture Oscar for 1994. PHILLIP CARUS, ABC

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"Gone With the Wind" was a blockbuster in 1939 and went on to win best picture, though "The Wizard of Oz" and "Mr. Smith Goes to Washington" also have endured as classic movies. NEW LINE CINEMA

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"Lawrence of Arabia," the best picture of 1962, stands up as epic-scale movie-making a half century later. ASSOCIATED PRESS

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You might understand how academy voters in the early '60s preferred the effervescent charm of "My Fair Lady" over Stanely Kubrick's nuclear armageddon satire "Dr. Strangelove," but the latter film now stands as a classic, the former as a trifle. CBS

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"Star Wars" redefined the summer blockbuster and changed the movie business for decades to come. It lost the best-picture battle to "Annie Hall," a smaller film that arguably did the same for the romantic comedy. LUCASFILM LTD.

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"Titanic" was the biggest blockbuster of its era, becoming the first movie to gross more than $1 billion worldwide, and faced no serious competition on its way to the best-picture prize and 10 other Oscars. PARAMOUNT PICTURES

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"Chinatown," a classic of L.A. noir, lost the best picture for 1974 to "The Godfather, Part II" in a particularly strong Oscar year. CBS TELEVISION NETWORK

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When "Goodfellas" was beaten out by "Dances With Wolves" as best picture of 1991, and director Martin Scorsese lost to Kevin Costner, some were heard to say, "Are you kiddin' me?" WARNER BROS.

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International critics have chosen Alfred Hitchock's "Vertigo" as the best film of all time. Domestically, it didn't even get a best-picture nomination.

There were two best-picture awards given out at the Hollywood Roosevelt Hotel on May 16, 1929. One, for "oustanding picture," went to the big-budget action/romance "Wings." The other, for "unique and artistic production," went to F.W. Murnau's expressionistic "Sunrise."

One award for popular films, one for art films.

The next year, the Academy trimmed down to one overall award, and ever since the voters have struggled to balance the competing interests of populism and artistic vision. Sometimes, the choice tilts one way ("Chicago") or the other ("The Hurt Locker"), but the best picture Oscar tends to go to films that fit neatly in the middle – some artistic ambition in an easily digested wrapper ("The King's Speech.")

But how often does it go to the year's outstanding movie?

While that question can never be definitively answered, we've taken a stab at measuring the Oscars' track record by comparing the best picture winners to several modern lists of the greatest films of all time.

As it turns out, the Academy's overall grade is much like its unwritten best picture criteria: right down the middle.

Some winners obviously deserved the title, and some years don't have a clear choice. But plenty of winners certainly were not the best of their years – at least according to the collective opinion of a variety of film experts and fans.

There are many reasons for the Academy's spotty record.

Foremost is that word Oscar hates above all else: genre.

Musicals occasionally are acceptable, but comedy, science fiction, Westerns and detective films are rarely welcome to the best picture party. Genre films live too close to the edge for the centrist view of the Academy.

But history has no such restriction, and the film buffs of today are free to love Charlie Chaplin and Monty Python, "2001: A Space Odyssey" and "Blade Runner," John Ford and Howard Hawks, "The Maltese Falcon" and "L.A. Confidential."

The Oscars also shy away from the idiosyncratic films of auteurs, many of which start as critics' darlings and take some time to achieve a more universal acceptance. From "M" to "The Seventh Seal" to "Mulholland Dr.," the Academy has largely avoided edgier works – at least until the past few years. With recent winners such as the Coen Brothers' "No Country for Old Men," Danny Boyle's "Slumdog Millionaire" and Michel Hazanavicius's "The Artist," the voters have shown an affinity for more personal, less mainstream films. It is still too soon to tell whether the long-term consensus will agree with those choices.

In doing this comparison, we reviewed many lists, but primarily used four: The 2007 edition of the American Film Institute's top 100 American films; Sight & Sound magazine's decennial list of the 10 best films as chosen by international film critics (seven lists beginning in 1952) and film directors (three lists beginning in 1992) and its 2012 list of the 50 greatest films; Time magazine's All-Time 100 Movies, compiled in 2005; and the Jan. 9 edition of the Internet Movie Database's 250 top films as voted by its users.

And now for the ironic ending: In 1930, the Academy decided retroactively that the best picture winner of its first awards was "Wings." "Sunrise" would have to settle for being the only winner of a defunct award. Today, "Wings" is considered a decent-but-forgettable artifact. "Sunrise" was chosen by Sight & Sound critics as the fifth-best movie ever made.

BEST PICTURES IN RETROSPECT

How does history judge the job the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences has done in choosing the best picture of any given year as its Best Picture? Using a variety of contemporary ratings, from the highbrow (Sight & Sound magazine) to the populist (IMDb), we analyzed 84 years of Oscar choices. Movies in parentheses after an Oscar winner are films released in the same year. They were not necessarily nominees for best picture.

NO ARGUMENT

Almost universally regarded as great films

"Casablanca" (1942)

"On the Waterfront" (1954)

"Lawrence of Arabia" (1962)

"The Godfather" (1972)

"Unforgiven" (1992)

"Schindler's List" (1993)

"The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King" (2003)

THE EPIC BATTLES

When titans meet.

"All About Eve" (winner) vs. "Sunset Blvd." (1950)

"The Godfather, Part II" (winner) vs. "Chinatown" (1974)

"Annie Hall" (winner) vs. "Star Wars" (1977)

THE WALKOVERS

Well-regarded winners with little competition

"The Sound of Music" (1965)

"The Deer Hunter" (1978)

"Titanic" (1997)

"Amadeus" (1984)

"Platoon" (1986)

"The Silence of the Lambs" (1991)

"Gladiator" (2000)

STRONG WINNERS, STRONG YEARS

Good films all.

"All Quiet on the Western Front" (1929-30) ("La Age D'Or," "The Blue Angel," "Earth")

Some Oscar misses are more egregious than others. Here are 10 classic films that weren't even nominated for best picture but now rate as all-time greats according to the American Film Institute and Sight & Sound magazine.

1. "Vertigo" (1958) – Not well reviewed when it came out. Now considered the best film ever by international critics.

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