Tuesday, May 20, 2014

Writing at Power Line, Steven Hayward notes the inherent disingenuousness of an
oft-cited ninety-seven percent agreement rate among "climate scientists" on
human activity as the cause of global warming:

TV watchers will recall the familiar advertising trope of
yesteryear in which we were told "4 out of 5 dentists [or doctors]
recommend" using fluoride toothpaste, aspirin for headaches, or some
such. We were always left to wonder whether that fifth doctor was a moron
or something, never pausing to consider that the fifth doctor might well
recommend the same thing, but emphasize something else first (like flossing
perhaps, or Tylenol instead of aspirin because of sensitive stomachs,
etc). But Archie Bunker was coming back on the air in 30 seconds, so most
of us didn't follow up on these puzzles.

Likewise we ought to
wonder about the favorite cliché of the Climatistas these
days--that "97 percent of scientists
'believe in' climate change." As I've written
before, the only real surprise is that the number isn't 100
percent. There is virtually no one who thinks the climate hasn't
changed or won't change in the future, or that there is no human
influence on the phenomenon. The leading so-called
"skeptics"--like MIT's Richard Lindzen or Cato's
Patrick Michaels or NASA's John Christy or Roy Spencer--would be
included in the 97 percent figure. I'm guessing the outlying 3
percent are actually just anomalies of an arbitrary classification scheme (more
on this in a moment) that serve the same point as a magician's
misdirection--to get you to buy an illusion. In this case, the
illusion is that the scientific community is nearly unanimous in thinking
we're on the brink of catastrophe unless we hand our car keys over to Al
Gore. [bold added]

Hayward's guess is correct, but (as they also used to say in other commercials
of yesteryear) that's not all. The peer-reviewed publication originating and allegedly supporting
this figure has serious weaknesses and, as with CimateGate, its data (which the
first author did not intend to share) have been leaked to the Internet and
analyzed by others. The rest of the blog entry elaborates on this and provides
links for anyone interested in knowing more about this latest bit of
legerdemain.