Barack's Blunder

About the Author

Peter BrookesSenior Fellow, National Security AffairsDouglas and Sarah Allison Center for Foreign and National Security Policy

In an "I am too tougher than Hillary" speech, Sen. Barack Obama warned Pakistan yesterday that as
commander-in-chief he might act unilaterally if Islamabad didn't do
more against the terrorists there.

"Let me make this clear . . . If we have actionable intelligence
about high-value terrorist targets and President Musharraf won't
act, I will," the Democratic presidential candidate told a
Washington audience in his first comprehensive speech on
terrorism.

There's nothing wrong with Sen. Obama (D-Ill.) talking tough on
terrorism - though he's seemingly coming to it a little bit late in
the campaign. But there are a couple of things in his proposal that
should be addressed.

First, there was little new in Obama's proposition for fighting
al Qaeda. In fact, he might be alarmed to learn that he's basically
taken a long-standing page from the Bush administration's playbook
in the War on Terror.

President Bush has already made it clear on numerous occasions
that he'd do what whatever was necessary to kill or capture al
Qaeda operatives - especially the likes of Osama bin Laden - if we
had actionable intelligence to do so.

But an attack on Pakistan's terrority that isn't unauthorized by
that nation's government - which is what Obama seemed to be
suggesting - is a pretty risky proposition, especially if it
involved a large number of U.S. troops pouring over the Afghan
border into Pakistan.

Taking this sort of large-scale action - or any other
unilateral action - without prior consultation with
Islamabad could easily lead to the downfall of Pakistani President
Pervez Musharraf's government.

Musharraf is already on shaky ground. His government has faced a
number of crises in recent months - including the seizure of the
Red Mosque, terror attacks and the (now overturned) firing of a the
country's top justice - leading to a serious slide in his
popularity.

The fall of Musharraf's government might well lead to a takeover
by pro-U.S. elements of the Pakistani military - but other possible
outcomes are extremely unpleasant, including the ascendance of
Islamist factions.

The last thing we need is for Islamabad to fall to the
extremists. That would exacerbate the problem of those
terrorist safe havens that Obama apparently thinks he could
invade.

And it would also put Pakistan's nuclear arsenal into the wrong
hands.

That could lead to a number of nightmarish scenarios - a nuclear
war with India over Kashmir, say, or the use of nuclear weapons by
a terrorist group against any number of targets, including the
United States.

The best route for dealing with Pakistan is mild pressure and
cooperation - not threats. Musharraf hasn't been a perfect ally,
but for the moment he's our best bet for fighting terrorism,
especially al Qaeda, in Pakistan.

And we have seen cooperation from Musharraf on al Qaeda.
Pakistan has turned over hundreds of al Qaeda operatives to the
United States. Indeed, more Qaeda bigs have been captured on joint
operations in Pakistan than anywhere else.

Last fall, a U.S. Predator drone fired a missile at a compound
in Pakistan where al Qaeda No. 2 Ayman al Zawahiri was reported to
be dining. The strike - coordinated with Pakistan - missed Zawahiri
by just a few hours.

And, as result of recent events in Pakistan, Musharraf has sent
at least two brigades of the Pakistani army back into the
tribal area along the Afghan-Pakistan border to engage the
militants that have found safe haven there.

The best way to fight extremism, terrorism and insurgencies is
with indigenous forces: They know the streets and the terrain - and
have the inside track with the locals on getting intelligence on
the bad guys.

Of course, our Special Operations Forces (SOF) and CIA
paramilitary intelligence operatives, who speak the local language,
know the culture and move stealthily in small units can really help
local forces process targets, too. In fact, it's very likely that
U.S. SOF and CIA operations officers are in Pakistan now, operating
with Pakistani forces against extremists and terrorists, including
al Qaeda.

There's no reason to doubt that this sort of cooperation from
Musharraf will continue - especially after the wake-up call he got
after being under the gun from Islamic extremists and terrorists in
recent weeks.

While the United States should keep every option on the table
for fighting terrorism, including the use of unilateral action when
necessary, it's critical we work with allies in the War on Terror
as much as possible.

Peter
Brookesis a senior fellow at The Heritage Foundation
and the author of "A Devil's Triangle: Terrorism, WMD and Rogue
States."

About the Author

Peter BrookesSenior Fellow, National Security AffairsDouglas and Sarah Allison Center for Foreign and National Security Policy