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LONDON — Climate change is expected to take an increasing toll on the economy, food production,
fresh-water supplies and human health as the century progresses, according to a draft study for the
United Nations.

A temperature increase of 4.5 degrees Fahrenheit since industrialization might lead to losses of
as much as 2 percent of global economic output, an analysis by the U.N.’s Intergovernmental Panel
on Climate Change found. Air temperature has already risen by about 0.8 degree.

The document charts declining crop yields, increased coastal flooding and the migration of
species toward the poles as the planet warms. It’s the second of three reports by the panel that
are designed to inform lawmakers worldwide as they work toward a global treaty and domestic
policies to cut greenhouse gases and protect against the effects of climate change.

“Recent changes in climate have caused impacts on natural and human systems on all continents
and across the oceans,” the researchers wrote.

The draft document will be revised line-by-line by representatives of governments around the
world at a meeting in Yokohama, Japan, from March 25 to 29.

It says that climate change will reduce median crop yields by as much as 2 percent a decade for
the rest of the century, compared with a baseline that assumes no warming. At the same time, the
researchers project crop demand to increase by 14 percent a decade through 2050. The assessment is
more alarming than the panel’s report in 2007, which projected global food production to increase
for temperature rises of 1 to 3 degrees.

The researchers say with “very high confidence” that warming will worsen health problems between
now and mid-century, and they have “high confidence” that it will increase ill health in many
regions through 2100.

There will be a greater likelihood of injury, disease and death because of more-intense heat
waves and fires; a bigger chance of under-nutrition because of diminished food production; and
increased risks of catching food- and water-borne diseases, according to the study. At the same
time, there will be “modest” improvements in cold-related deaths.

The economic cost of warming of 2.5 degrees from pre- industrial levels might range from 0.2 p
ercent to 2 percent of global output, according to the study. Little is known about the total cost
of impacts above 3 degrees of warming, it said.

“Throughout the 21st century, climate-change impacts will slow down economic growth and poverty
reduction; further erode food security; and trigger new poverty traps, the latter particularly in
urban areas and emerging hot spots of hunger.”

In the U.N.’s last summary report in 2007, researchers said 4 degrees of warming could cost the
global economy 1 percent to 5 percent of output. They were less precise on costs associated with
lower levels of warming that are more likely in the nearer term.