The Four Horsemen of Aberdeen

Roger Baldwin, Wilbert Cantey, Herbert Maisel, and James
McDermott could easily be considered the fore fathers of card
counting, as they were the first men to publish a book that
included accurate basic strategy and card counting methods. They
weren't the first men to try to work out these calculations, but
they were the first men who were successfully able to do so.

Arnold Snyder, an established blackjack player in his own
right, wrote this about the Four Horsemen, "The strategy devised
by these four men has since been published in millions of books.
Hundreds of thousands of blackjack players all over the world
depend on it." This quote is taken directly from the cover of
the latest edition of their book.

How Basic Strategy was First Developed

The U.S. Army's Aberdeen Proving Ground was established in
Hartford Country, Maryland shortly after the United States
entered World War I. This unit was established to test the
effectiveness of military weapons before they were sent to the
soldiers in combat. They would also apply stress tests to the
vehicles used overseas, to make sure they were equipped to
handle extreme conditions.

All four of these men were stationed in Aberdeen, Maryland.
To deal with the everyday stress that being in the military
entails, the men found themselves spending the majority of their
free time playing poker. After playing that for several weeks,
the men decided to switch over to a game they were less familiar
with: blackjack. They took some time to discuss which set of
rules they would use, as many people had played slightly
different versions of the games in the past.

While Roger Baldwin listened to the other men talk about what
set of rules would be appropriate, he started to think about how
knowing the dealer's limitations would make it possible to
calculate accurate probabilities of how likely a player is to
win or lose depending on the cards in their hand. Robert Baldwin
had his Master's Degree in Mathematics from the University of
Columbia at the time, so if anyone could calculate these
probabilities, it would be him.

The team finally agreed to use the rules followed by most Las
Vegas casinos; the dealer would stand on 17 but must hit on 16.
Now knowing this information, Baldwin was curious about how he
would go about calculating these probabilities. He took a piece
a paper and started developing fundamental formulas, quickly
realizing this task would not be something he could accomplish
on his own.

He asked his Army Sergeant, Wilbert Cantey, if he could use
the "adding machine" located on base during his free time. These
adding machines can do the same types of functions as an average
desk calculator. They were nothing fancy, but they would help
speed up the process.

Cantey agreed to allow Baldwin to use the adding machines, if
he was allowed to help with the calculations. Cantey spent the
first few years of his life in seminary school, but he
eventually got kicked out because he spent too much time
hustling people at the card tables. Forced to change majors, he
too decided to dedicate his college years to studying
mathematics. He later became a mathematics teacher, whose
favorite subject just happened to be statistics. Needless to
say, he was the perfect person for the job.

Baldwin knew this project wasn't going to be easy, so not
only did he have Cantey help him, but he sought the help of two
other soldiers as well: Herbert Maisel and James McDermott.
McDermott had a Master's Degree from Columbia University, so he
was highly qualified to do the calculations. Although Maisel was
still working on his degree at the time, he would later become a
professor at Georgetown University and was still a huge asset to
the group.

This whole process took a lot longer than any of these four
men had anticipated. There were many instances where they wanted
to give up, where they wanted to scratch everything they had and
just start over, but they persevered through it all. In a little
under two year's time, their work was finally complete.

Playing Blackjack to Win: A New Strategy for the Game of 21

By 1956, the four men were ready to share their finished work
with the world, publishing their findings in a journal of the
American Statistical Association. This article was eleven pages
long and was titled, "The Optimum Strategy in Blackjack." Less
than a year later, the four men published a limited quantity of
their book called, Playing Blackjack to Win: A New Strategy for
the Game of 21.

Nowadays, people can purchase this book for about fifteen
dollars, but back in the day the most expensive version of the
book was a measly $1.75. Although we have to take infatuation
into consideration, we will point out the fact that many people
weren't aware of all the benefits this book had to offer when it
first came out.

"Chapter 10: Using the Exposed Cards to Improve Your
Chances," would be considered the first legitimate blackjack
card counting system ever published. It set the foundation for
Thorp's revolutionary 10-count system. This early system didn't
come without its flaws though, as critics would say that they
overlooked the simple fact that tens and aces were more valuable
to players than actual low cards.

This book was officially re-published in 2008, with some
added features to make it even more of a classic. A new foreword
was added to the book by the best-selling author, Edward O.
Thorp, who used this book to write, Beat the Dealer. Arnold
Snyder also added a new introduction for the book, as he's very
thankful for the impact this book has had on the world of
blackjack.

Testing these Number for Accuracy

As mentioned above, Thorp based his book, Beat the Dealer,
off of the Four Horsemen's initial calculations. Looking over
these four men's work for the first time was an overwhelming
experience, as the strategies they recommended were unheard-of.
For example, they claimed that hard totals of 12 should be hit
against 2 and 3 and that soft totals of 18 should be hit against
9 and 10 only. Normally, the opposite would be recommended.

To determine whether or not their strategies were accurate,
Thorp plugged their calculations into the highly advanced
computers at MIT. When it came to their advice on knowing when
to hit or stand, their calculations were proven to be 100%
accurate. They did make some minor errors when it came to their
hard doubling and pair splitting strategies, but it would only
have had a small negative impact on a player's overall winnings.

Even though their calculations set the necessary ground work
for other card counting strategies, they would still be
considered outdated today. This is because at the time they were
working on their calculations, casinos only used a single deck
for each game of blackjack. Since then, casinos have started
using more decks to hinder these systems from working. It would
be rare to find a casino that uses less than four decks a game
nowadays.

Inducted into the Blackjack Hall of Fame

The Four Horsemen were inducted into the Blackjack Hall of
Fame at Max Rubin's 12th Annual Blackjack Ball. Three out of the
four horsemen were able to make it to this esteemed event.
Baldwin, Cantey, and McDermott made an appearance, but Maisel
regrettably couldn't make it to Las Vegas that weekend, as he
had to stay home to take care of his wife who was recovering
from a recent surgery.

Upon receiving this award, Baldwin said, "I must confess that
my knowledge of blackjack history had been limited and really
only went through the first edition of 'Beat the Dealer.' I was
amazed and very impressed at what had happened since." Baldwin
went back to grad school after he retired from the military,
eventually working in the applied statistics and data processing
field until retirement.

Cantey shared, "It was an honor, in so many ways, to be able
to use mathematics to figure out the game of blackjack." He
spent the majority of his career doing confidential research for
the government. He has since retired, and his health just isn't
what it used to be. The doctors and his family both advised him
to stay home that weekend, but he refused to miss out on this
opportunity.

McDermott dedicated thirty-two years of his life working for
IBM in market research and business planning after the book was
published. "The Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse were death,
famine, pestilence and war. Let's hope those are the names the
gambling casinos give to you guys. Let's keep it going from
here," he said to inspire the crowd that night.

The four men still get together on occasions to reminisce
about the old days, and talk about how much has changed over the
years. What makes these men unique is the fact that they did all
of these calculations and research for educational purposes
only, as not one of them ever used their techniques to take
money from the casinos.