ATS Updates, Developments and Last Minute Adjustments

On Tuesday, we analyzed that the Giants/RedSkins game had a high likelyhood to go Over the Total.

After looking at the updated atsstats database, we see now that there are positional indicators that suggest this affair will finish Under the Total.There isn’t enough room to list all of the specific instances, but when it comes to significant statistical database considerations, we find a persuasive case for the Under.

33 instances indicate the Under is likely, only 8 instances support the Over.

However.

When we look at the horrendous amounts of combined injuries between these two teams, we have some critical ideas developing:

1. 1st string QB Griffin III marked a measly 6 points in week 1; so, to think that his injury in week 2 was any kind of a setback to their scoring…would be ridiculous.
Kirk Cousins has picked up his role and ran with it. Despite Cousins going on record reiterating that he feels it’s still Griffin’s team, his teammates, coaches and managers have got to be sizing him up for the role of 1st string QB.
Bottom line, the Washington Redskin’s scoring machine is firing on all pistons. 75 points across 7 quarters is a league elite QB.

2. Both of these teams have some of the most injured rosters in the league.
Washington gave up a whopping 37 points vs the Eagles which indicates that their defense is vulnerable, granted, Philadelphia has a lethal offense.

3. The Giants had some critical injuries in week 3 that are crucial to our analysis and need to be noted:

– LB Beason Out for Sunday with a foot injury. (DEF)
– LB Devon Kennard Out for Sunday with a hamstring issue. (DEF)

– WR Odell Beckham Out for Sunday with a hamstring issue. (OFF)

– T Charles Brown is questionable. (DEF)

– T James Brewer is questionable. (DEF)

– P Steve Weatherford is questionable. (DEF)

– DT Markus Kuhn is probable. (DEF)

With this amount of damage on their defense, depending on the game-time lineups, the Giants will have either a tough time, or a very tough time, trying to slow Washington’s Top 5 offense.

4. Extenuating circumstances are the one consideration that undermines the database considerations and none of the historical ATS Database statistics apply to these teams with these amounts of injuries.
These teams’ combined injuries most definitely qualify them for ‘extenuating’.

The pick stands. NYG@WSH to go Over the Total.

On a side note, the case for the Over also outlines the offensive case for the Redskins to cover the spread as well.

With Cousins throwing fire for the ‘Skins, and with the Giants’ injured and vulnerable defense, everything is pointing straight at the ‘Skins to win.
Washington might be 5th in the league in scoring, but that also includes Griffin’s grizzly opening day.
Cousins is arguably the best QB in the league and the same can be argued for the Washington offense.

The case for Washington’s defense is simple as well.In week 3, the Skins were facing Philadelpiha, the 2nd strongest scoring team in the league.
It could be argued that the Giants’ bottom tier offense won’t come close to cracking the case vs the Redskins.

The pick:Washington Redskins -3.5

Quick pick on this one.Atlanta Falcons Points For

– Week 1: 37 points.

– Week 2: 10 points.

– Week 3: 56 points.

Marked improvement on offense from week 1 to week 3.

Atlanta Falcons Points Against

– Week 1: 34

– Week 2: 24
– Week 3: 14

Marked improvement on defense week to week.

Minnesota Vikings Points For

– Week 1: 34

– Week 2: 07

– Week 3: 09

Marked decline on offense from week 1 to week 3.

Minnesota Vikings Points Against

– Week 1: 6
– Week 2: 30

– Week 3: 20

Marked decline on defense from week 1 to week 3.

With Minnesota’s QB Matt Castle out with a foot injury, Teddy Bridgewater is stepping in.
With an ‘above average’ performance last Sunday, the young and inexperienced QB could turn heads in a star performance in week 4.
While this is definitely a possible ace in the hole for Minnesota, it’s their defensive woes that could crumble and allow Atlanta to cover -3 ATS.