Laugh and the world laughs with you, cry and you cry alone. One point either way at the end of regulation yesterday and I cash both tickets, but that old nemesis of the under comes along and wrecks it. Overtime! There goes my under. garbage happens, I will get over it.

16-21-1, -737.4 units, -20.5% ROR

Orlando-Miami Under 192.5The Magic +9 are going to be a popular pick today, but I think the Heat deserve to be that large a favorite and will create my under by showing the Magic what a crushing defense they have. The fans love their overs and their Sports Center highlight clips featuring the big three rolling up the points, but the reality of it is that defense wins championships and the Heat will make another statement today.

Timberwolves -1I just have to love at least one team every year that totally befuddles the public. That team this year is the Sixers, who bettors will probably hate by April. Folks started the season going against the Sixers and blaming their success on a soft schedule, hence they fade them. OK, after three or four weeks they are saying "hey, the Sixers are for real!" and are ready to jump on the bandwagon. So, of course the inevitable happens and the Sixers start playing like we expected before the season began, a slightly below average team that is just 3-6 ATS their last 9 games and got beat straight up at home Friday night by the Mavericks (check above, I called it, $). Now the public (including the Covers Forum) is still trying to ride the Sixers, although that time is long gone and they are back in the pack, where you have to pick your spots. I don't see any remarkable recovery today and I think their numbers just continue to catch up with them.

Kings-Heat Under 203.5I pointed out Sunday with the Heat under (versus Orlando) that they are not winning by rolling up they score, they are winning by crushing their opponents early with great defense (championship caliber) and spending most of the second half on cruise control when both teams know the game is over. That continues today.

Spurs +4In my current power rankings I have the Trail Blazers 10th in the whole darn league, but their inability to win on the road and versus dedicated opponents shows a weakness that just is not going to overcome one of the top three teams in the league. The Spurs are raping, pillaging and laying waste to everything in sight and there is no reason that should change tonight. Might even punch the money line with this one.

Damn, back in trouble again, garbage happens, back to work now that the silly garbage is over. MLB All Star game is OK, something is on the line, but the rest of them are ridiculous scoring exhibitions.

17-25-2, -1,047 units, -25.5% ROR

12-28Boston-Cleveland Under 184.5Detroit +4

I have been saying for a couple weeks now the 76ers have had their fun and are not the team this board thinks they are. They won't be when healthy either. The impression they have made so far has been aided by weak teams and a home heavy schedule. Still, on any given night 57% of the lemmings are willing to follow them over the cliff, so the books throw points at the 40% that are willing to take a home dog that has won 6 of their last 10 SU, their last 2 home games, SU, and 4 of their last 6 at home, SU. False favorite.

I disagree about the false favorites statement in the Detroit game as my numbers show Philly should still be -2.5. That being said, I like your bet for a couple of reasons. Besides the obvious fade the public angle, there is a huge mismatch in shot locations on the court. Philly is bottom 10 in the league at interior defense. They allow teams to shoot an eFG% of 63.5% at the rim. Detroit lives at the rim generating 67% of their offense in this zone. Furthermore, they take a total of 40 attempts inside 9 feet. These numbers are third most only behind Denver and Cleveland. Shots at the rim, as you know, are the most efficient shot in basketball. Given Philadelphia's lack of interior presence, it's safe to assume that Detroit will be able to score at will in the paint. I can see this line getting to 4.5 by tip. I like the home dog to cover this number as well as the over.

I guess the first thing I want to do is thank si1ly for paying attention to useful information, even if the individual poster is not having exactly a banner season. There is a lot of ego on Covers that prevents some of the best handicappers from spotting hard, productive, and especially useful work from being noticed or appreciated. Those that can put that to work for themselves become even better handicappers.

Secondly, it is obvious this thread is going to end up in the hole, since I am not going to do something totally stupid and try to save it on the last possible day. Perhaps I was prescient in choosing the name February Bloodbath but I felt it was going to be that for either me or the books, none of that 50-50 stuff here, partner. Tomorrow will present a new thread with the closing results of this one and a slightly different approach for March.

Portland +3Portland-Denver Under 200.5

I think it is high time the Trailblazers established an identity and took their show on the road, and Denver may be the perfect place to establish themselves. Stats being what they are I can tell you there is no good, viable reason the Trailblazers should be 5-11 on the road and that is one reason the Nuggets are favored over a superior team. I have pointed our already that HCA this year is not the big difference it has been in the past and I don't see that preventing the Trailblazers from showing their superiority, they just have to get it together and they will be fine on the road. Their defense, combined with the Nuggets offensive slide will create an upset win and solid under. Portland 94-90

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