Report Highlights

Rising average summer temperatures are strongly associated with an increase in the number of wildfires. In Oregon, an increase in average summer temperature of 1°F is associated with an increase of 420 wildfires. This is a large effect given that, on average, 1,800 wildfires burn in Oregon per year.

Based on data for 19 Oregon counties, home construction in the WUI was most rapid from 1977-1980, when an average of 529 WUI homes were built per year. The next highest rate occurred in 2006, just prior to the recession, when 418 WUI homes were built.

Homes Built Per Year in the Oregon WUI

Of the 33 Oregon wildfires studied, the average cost to protect a home within 6 miles of the fire was $56,614, but ranged significantly, in some fires costing more than $200,000 per home. The estimated cost related to housing for the 33 study fires ranged from none to 42 percent, and averaged 17 percent. This added up to almost $42 million spent to protect homes (out of a total firefighting bill of more than $250 million).

Building new homes in otherwise undeveloped areas has the greatest potential to increase firefighting costs. Conversely, lower firefighting costs are associated with individual homes in densely developed areas. This is likely because when large numbers of homes are present, fire managers are already investing all available resources to stop the fire. For example, using the average daily firefighting cost within our sample ($700,911), the model predicts an increase in suppression costs of $31,545 if two homes instead of one were within 6 miles of the wildfire. By comparison, the model predicts an increase of only $319 if 100 homes instead of 99 were within 6 miles of the wildfire.

Policy Implications

Keeping new housing within denser residential areas would reduce future firefighting costs by millions of dollars. Leaving land undeveloped saves the most taxpayer dollars.

Today federal and state taxpayers pay a large portion of the cost of wildfires. If costs instead were borne in part by those who build at-risk homes, or by local governments who permit them, it would help pay for rising costs and may discourage new home development in high risk areas.

Summary data per fire for each of the 33 Oregon wildfires studied

Fire

Cumulative Cost

Year

Agency

Firefighting Days

Avg Size of Fire (sq.km.)

Avg Homes within 6 mi

Estimated % of Cost Related to Housing

Estimated Cost Related to Housing

Avg Cost per Home within 6 mi of the Fire

Ball Point

$3,075,788

2007

USFS

17

5

427

32%

$974,995

$2,282

Big Sheep Ridge

$1,217,673

2009

USFS

10

13

141

25%

$307,531

$2,176

Black Butte II

$3,080,983

2009

USFS

7

3

937

36%

$1,123,770

$1,199

Blister

$5,726,503

2006

USFS

22

2

1

3%

$183,227

$183,227

Boze

$7,019,985

2009

USFS

22

23

0

0%

$24,957

$224,614

Bridge Creek

$4,410,206

2008

USFS

11

19

131

25%

$1,094,958

$8,377

Calamity Complex

$3,652,755

2007

USFS

14

8

22

15%

$560,979

$25,118

Canal Creek

$4,735,060

2009

USFS

11

1

0

0%

$0

na

Cougar Creek

$2,544,887

2009

USFS

10

3

593

34%

$855,357

$1,444

Cougar Ridge

$1,657,848

2009

USFS

20

1

1

3%

$53,045

$53,045

Egley Complex

$16,296,760

2007

USFS

19

294

64

18%

$2,970,854

$46,347

Elkhorn Complex

$3,985,253

2006

USFS

15

4

404

31%

$1,249,754

$3,095

Gnarl Ridge

$15,047,477

2008

USFS

28

11

130

25%

$3,727,722

$28,738

GW Fire

$7,917,759

2007

USFS

23

26

700

34%

$2,691,478

$3,845

Ironside

$1,667,362

2007

BLM

9

1

25

16%

$266,045

$10,642

Kitson

$4,302,039

2008

USFS

13

3

44

19%

$812,339

$18,462

Lake George

$12,367,001

2006

USFS

34

13

16

12%

$1,503,077

$92,025

Lonesome Complex

$18,411,841

2008

USFS

55

41

3

3%

$515,770

$176,448

Monument Complex

$11,634,250

2007

USFS

22

167

144

25%

$2,881,029

$20,007

Mt. Hood Complex

$8,514,319

2006

USFS

25

5

14

13%

$1,107,921

$80,414

North Fork Complex 08

$9,274,059

2008

USFS

24

2

9

7%

$663,799

$73,755

North Fork Complex 09

$5,250,859

2009

USFS

59

14

8

10%

$545,100

$69,885

Oak Flat

$18,738,968

2010

USFS

27

17

17

14%

$2,579,344

$153,991

Rattle

$21,057,784

2008

USFS

37

50

18

14%

$3,014,458

$167,470

Rooster Rock

$5,609,299

2010

USFS

9

19

2249

42%

$2,356,225

$1,048

Shake Table Complex

$15,264,142

2006

USFS

24

42

65

19%

$2,932,932

$45,023

Silvies River

$2,531,835

2008

BLM

8

13

13

13%

$317,572

$25,406

Spear Spring

$1,073,010

2007

USFS

6

2

7

10%

$106,328

$15,190

Trout Meadows

$6,569,023

2007

USFS

23

14

1

3%

$210,185

$210,185

Twin Lakes Complex

$4,538,513

2006

USFS

17

35

206

27%

$1,242,856

$6,033

Ukiah Complex

$4,356,664

2007

USFS

11

14

126

24%

$1,042,398

$8,306

Williams Creek Fire

$14,630,640

2009

USFS

21

21

60

20%

$2,937,497

$49,017

Wizard

$3,994,788

2008

USFS

12

5

232

28%

$1,122,754

$4,839

Total:

$250,155,334

$41,976,256

Average estimated cost related to housing for the 33 study fires: 17% (ranged from 0% to 42%)
Average estimated cost per home within 6 mi. for the 33 study fires: $56,614 (ranged from $1,048 to $224,614)