Now we know where we are

Sorry, would have blogged earlier, but the queue at the travel agent was three deep. As Iain Dale helpfully points out, BBC Parliament are about to re-run their 1979 election night coverage to mark the 30th anniversary. Today could have been a purpose-made trailer, a useful preview of the choice back then, and a bit like those who watch Ashes to Ashes, I'm feeling all nostalgic. Now we know what the Labour manifesto will bring: wealth destruction and reckless spending, packaged in a naked appeal to sectional interests. We also know what Tony Blair was saving us from all those years.

Brown Central is stressing the scope of the tax increases: not how much they raise, but who gets hit. So on income tax it only hits about 1pc of all earners, and on pension relief, a fraction of earners get 25pc of the relief. The message to voters, and in particular Labour supporters, is that the losers are the rich. The PM has found comfort in polls that suggest a majority are happy to see those on six-figure salaries bear a greater burden.

That's as may be, but in political terms this is a Budget that produces more pain than revenue for Mr Brown. How Mr Tony must be wincing to see his project produce a return to marginal rates of more than 50pc. His supporters are finding little to cheer about. Will they emerge in coming days to say so?

Consider what Mr Brown is contemplating tonight: thumbs down from the CBI, BCC, EEF, IoD, Pound slumps. FTSE staggers. Markets gasp when they see that the Treasury wants to place Â£220bn in debt, and the guys in the City who are being asked to buy it have just been clobbered. Nice. Oh, and public spending is still rising in real terms.

A former Cabinet minister, admittedly no admirer of Mr Brown, told me earlier he feels ashamed to be a Labour MP. The expenses thing is about to get nasty. Nick Brown has told the PM to expect a number of by-elections, or worse, when receipts are published in July. I detect no signs that Mr Brown's position could suddenly be in jeopardy, but things are dire, and we still have the June elections to go.