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Wednesday, May 12, 2010

2010 Top Prospect List: "Other Notables"

Time for a quick spin around the farm system to highlight a few guys who, for one reason or other, missed out on the top 25. Even though they didn't crack the top 25, there are some players of interest here and guys who could move well up on the 2011 list with a strong performance this year.

MATT FAIREL - LHP

The Reds selected Fairel with the 1049th overall pick in the 35th round of the 2008 draft. Fairel was drafted out of Florida State University as a draft eligible junior.

In his professional career, Fairel has a career 3.03 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 3.1 BB/9, and 7.7 K/9 during his stints in low-A and high-A. Overall, solid production, but he has yet to face a level of competition that is appreciably better than what he faced in his Florida State days.

Fairel has good polish, but questionable stuff. As of now, the comparison for Fairel that continues to leap to mind is Sam LeCure. A polished college hurler with fundamentally sound mechanics, but also short on pure stuff.

Fairel's mechanics are solid, but with a few interesting components. Fairel, much like LeCure, seems to unpack his leg kick prematurely. He builds up good potential energy with a leg kick that comes up past parallel, but he drops the knee before he begins to drive towards the plate. As a result, his delivery bleeds energy, which makes it less efficient than it could be. In addition, Fairel also has a unique arm action. His arm action is free and fluid, but his arm swing after breaking his hands is more circular than is typical. He drops his pitching hand down and brings it up with a circular motion towards third base.

Fairel is intriguing, but he needs to prove that he has enough pure stuff or guile to succeed against advanced competition.

KYLE LOTZKAR - RHP

It begins and ends with health. Stress fractures are troubling for pitchers, as throwing a baseball is an unnatural motion to begin with. Add in a flaw in his pitching mechanics and it could be a consistent, lingering problem. On the plus side, Minnesota Twins pitching prospect Kyle Gibson is back and pitching very well after sliding down the first round of the 2009 draft due to a stress fracture in his pitching arm. So, there is hope for Lotzkar and he's young enough to bounce back. Still, he has to get healthy first.

MARK SERRANO - RHP

The Reds selected Serrano as a draft eligible junior out of Oral Roberts University in the 6th round of the 2009 draft with the 179th overall pick. As a junior, he ranked sixth in Division 1 baseball with 132 strikeouts.

Serrano features an 89-91 mph fastball, a potentially plus slider, and an average change-up. He used his arsenal to completely dominate the Pioneer League and Midwest League. For Billings, he posted a 1.42 ERA, 0.947 WHIP, and an 8/0 K/BB ratio in 6.1 innings. He quickly earned a promotion to Dayton where he posted a 2.20 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, and a 57/12 K/BB ratio in 49.0 innings. For Dayton, he split time between the bullpen and the rotation, but he ultimately profiles better in a relief role.

Here's a quick look at Serrano in action, courtesy of RedsMinorLeagues on YouTube:

As you can see, he features fairly clean mechanics with no obvious red-flags. However, the main drawback on Serrano is his age, as he is already 24 and will be 25 in September. So, while his performance in 2009 was dominant, he had a significant age v. level advantage.

MARIEKSON GREGORIUS - SS

An intriguing shortstop prospect from the Netherlands Antilles. He's one of the better defensive infield prospects in the system and has a very strong arm. Also working in his favor is that he comes from a baseball family.

In 2009, he played in 50 games for Billings where he hit .314/.363/.387. Right now, he lacks the necessary power to drive the ball, but he has physical projection left to his game. He stands 6-1 and tips the scales at 152, so he'll fill out as he matures physically.

His career is still in its infancy, but the potential is undeniable.

ENERIO DEL ROSARIO - RHP

In 2009, Del Rosario quickly climbed the organizational ladder, making stops at three different levels. For high-A, he pitched 50 innings and posted a 1.98 ERA. For double-A, he pitched 6 innings and posted a 1.59 ERA. For triple-A, he pitched 25 innings and posted a 1.09 ERA. He throws a 90-92 mph fastball with very good sink, a slider, and a changeup. His repertoire is conducive to generating groundballs at a very good clip, which should play well in Great American Ballpark.

Del Rosario had a pretty pedestrian career going before the Reds altered his arm-slot. By lowering his arm-slot, Del Rosario was able to add velocity and movement. Obviously, if Del Rosario can sustain his 2009 level of performance, then he could be on the fast track to the MLB bullpen.

11 comments:

Mariekson Gregorius is 6-1 and only weighs 152 pounds? How is that possible given the wight training program I assume the Reds have for their prospects. Does he have some kind of medical condition that renders him unable to gain weight?

Baseball America has him listed at 152, while Baseball Reference and MILB.com have him down at 160. Either way, he's obviously got room to fill out.

At 20, he's still a young prospect, so I'd expect the weight to come over the next year or so. Prospects out of the Dominican Republic and Netherlands Antilles don't frequently lift weights, choosing instead to play and play and play.

He's an interesting prospect, but he does need to add a bit of strength to improve his offensive production. I'm sure the Reds now have him on a weight lifting program, which soon should start paying dividends.

Yes, I heard about Felix Perez. He is a Cuban defector who has a well-rounded game. He is rumored to have 5-tools, albeit none of which are standout tools.

But, of course, the elephant in the room is his age. Last year, Perez was in negotiations to sign a big contract with the Yankees last year until it was revealed that he wasn't 20-years old, but rather 24. As a result, the Yanks pulled their offer and MLB suspended Perez for 1-year.

So, he's now 25 and a questionable prospect who seems unlikely to be an impact player at the MLB level. He strikes me as being more of a depth acquisition, but time will tell. He'll have to make a quick impact in the minors and climb the ladder in a hurry to work his way into the organization's plans.

Duran was completely overmatched last year in his first taste of pro-ball. He's still developing physically and hasn't quite adjusted to his new height. He still has the tools that impressed the scouts, but he's going to have a bit longer development curve than previously expected.

As of now, he hasn't been assigned to a minor league team, as he's not ready to face the level of competition that he'll find in a full season ball.

For now, the Reds are likely keeping him in extended spring training until the short season leagues open.

Duran is certainly someone to monitor and could easily move up this list with a strong showing in 2010. His age obviously works in his favor.

Lotzkar isn't ready to be thrown back into full season ball. He's still working his way back from his stress fracture injury. I haven't heard about him re-aggravating the injury, so I'd imagine the Reds have him working out in extended spring training until he's ready to join a team.

Hopefully, he can get back on the mound this year and get his career back on track.

It should be noted that most teams passed on Fairel because they didn't think he'd sign; it was considered a virtual lock he was going back to school. And the only reason the Reds were able to sign him is due to them giving him 5th round bonus money

Interesting, but I haven't heard that. That's certainly not typical, as most juniors aren't difficult to sign.

After they go the college route, they only have two chances left to be drafted. So, being drafted after the junior isn't something to which most juniors object. In fact, by putting out word that you aren't going to sign after your junior season, then you are potentially damaging your leverage in negotiations.

If you are drafted as a senior out of college, then you don't have the option to return to school to better your draft position.

I'd still say his draft position was tied more to his performance and the valuation put on him by teams, then his stand on signing as a junior.

Wonder if anyone can tell me what they think of the future MLB prospects for any of the three - Cameron Satterwhite, Sean Henry, Chase Ware ..... I saw these guys had great numbers but were not listed among the top prospects ... any info would be appreciated - Thanks

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