Is Development Back in the Doha Round?

South Centre Policy Brief No. 18

As ministers reassemble in Geneva
amid continuing cries from
the developing world that the
Doha Development Round has lost
its commitment to development,
they are hearing another round of
estimates about the so-called gains
from trade. Each time ministers
gather, economists offer new or
refurbished projections of how
much wealthier the world might be
after liberalizing trade.

The upcoming ministerial is
no different, and neither, fundamentally,
are the projections, notwithstanding
one recent claim that
an ambitious Doha deal could deliver
$300–$700 billion in global
welfare gains, with the benefits
"well-balanced" between developed
and developing countries.
These contrast with the
World Bank's widely publicized
2005 estimates of global gains from
a "likely Doha scenario" of less
than $100 billion, with just $16 billion
going to developing countries.
Did economists find another
$150–$350 billion in benefits for developing
countries that the World
Bank missed in 2005? Is development
back in the Doha Round?

The answer, of course, is
no. The purpose of this policy brief
is to look behind the press releases
to examine the recent economic
projections, review previous estimates,
and put these seemingly
large numbers in their proper context.
As before, the claims that developing
countries will be the big
winners from Doha rest on shaky
assumptions, controversial economic
modeling, misleading representations
of the benefits, and disregard
for the high costs of Doha-style
liberalization for many developing
countries. These costs are
even higher in the turbulent wake
of the triple crises in finance, climate,
and food.