2018 Global Outlook: North Korea and the U.S.-China-Russia triangle

Kim Jong-un observes the test-fire of the country’s Hwasong-15 long-range ballistic missile. Another missile test could put pressure on the U.S. to take action (source: dpa)

Tensions in Korea are straining Beijing-Moscow-Washington relations

An unexpected shock could set the big three nuclear powers against each other

This situation lays bare Europe’s inherent weakness

The increasingly bellicose standoff between United States President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un is sending shock waves throughout the global security system. The ultimate danger is that the confrontation will be pushed to the point of a nuclear conflict. While this risk must still be considered small, the brinkmanship is already causing considerable collateral damage, playing into the triangular relationship between the three superpowers that was a defining feature of the Cold War. The baseline scenario for 2018 is that developments will follow a trajectory defined by three well-established features. Deviations will result only from substantial shocks.

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