Andy Murray is the reigning champion at Wimbledon, the U.S.
Open and the Olympics. Based on results over the past year, he's unquestionably
the best big-match player in the world right now.

Not that anyone is willing to admit this.

Rafael Nadal, we all trill, is a marvel. And he is. Despite
his tender knees, the guy hasn't lost a match on hard courts all year. Novak
Djokovic, with his extreme "Serve to Win" diet and fitness regime, can keep
going on court like the Energizer Bunny, hour after hour after hour. Roger Federer?
Sure, he's 32 and has had a bad summer, but you can't count him out. He's Roger
Federer.

And Murray? Let the collective shrug begin.

Two of Tennis magazine's four resident pundits picked Djokovic
to win this year's U.S. Open, which is underway now. The other two insisted Nadal
will hold up the trophy.

ESPN had to query 11 prominent tennis writers and former
players to find just one -- Australian coach and contrarian Darren Cahill -- who
was willing to say Murray will defend his title in New York.

What gives? In short, old habits are hard to break. We've
lived with the British as tennis losers for so long that it's become part of
what makes the world turn. British tennis players are as famously woeful as
Chicago's Cubs and Italy's army -- it's simply a given.

And besides, Murray just fell from number two in the world
rankings to number three. If that isn't proof that he's through, what is?

For his part, Murray doesn't seem to care that he's not the
favorite. He's a low-key guy who's quite happy to fly under the radar. He wants
to eat at the Whole Foods snack bar in Manhattan without being recognized (no
Serve to Win diet for him), maybe sit in the back of a dusky New York movie theater by
himself. This is the man who reacted to winning the U.S. Open last year by
shaking his head slightly and waggling his finger, as if he were sleepily refusing a bag of peanuts on a transcontinental flight.

But make no mistake: he plans to prove all of those U.S.
Open prognosticators wrong.

The 26-year-old Scotsman, who plays his first-round match
today, knows he's secretly the best player in tennis right here, right now. This is,
after all, the U.S. Open. He's never won a clay-court tournament on the ATP
tour -- not one. He's come up one match short three times on the sticky courts
of Melbourne Park.

But the faster hard courts of North America? He's won the
Cincinnati Masters twice, Canada's Rogers Cup twice, the Miami Masters twice.
Plus, as we've mentioned, he won the U.S. Open last year.

These are his courts at Flushing Meadows, and this is his
time.

He can handle Rafa's Martian spin in New York. He can run
with Djokovic all day long. He can juke the aging Federer with drop shots and
sleight of hand. He can shove Tomas Berdych's cannonball serves down the Czech's
throat.

He's shaken off his post-Wimbledon hangover; you know his
coach Ivan Lendl has made sure of that. Lendl reached the final in Flushing
Meadows eight straight years in the 1980s – he takes this tournament seriously.

So does Murray. He's not the favorite, but anyone putting
down a bet on the Brit to win his second straight U.S. Open is playing it safe.