Posted by Ehsani on Wednesday, March 28th, 2012

James Baker, Former Secretary of State appeared on the Charlie Rose Show last night. His comments on Syria start on the 16-minute mark. Mr. Baker is always worth listening to. Set below are some quotes from the interview:

“I am not a big fan of what we did in Libya even though I am glad to see Gaddafi gone. We don’t know who these people are, the Free Syrian Army and all those people. Syria is a whole lot of a different case than Libya. We need to proceed very cautiously. We are broke. We don’t need another major engagement that we cannot fund. Assad has lost legitimacy. You can’t murder your own people and expect to survive for very long and when he goes, and my view ultimately he will go. That is not all that bad for us from the standpoint of the situation with Iran. “

“Maybe it’s time for Syrian revolutionaries to take “yes” for an answer from Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and back a U.N.-sponsored “managed transition” of power there, rather than rolling on toward a civil war that will bring more death and destruction for the region.

We should learn from recent Middle East history and seek a non-military solution in Syria — even with the inevitable fuzziness and need for compromise with unpleasant people.

The alternative to a diplomatic soft landing is a war that shatters the ethnic mosaic in Syria. It’s easy to imagine Sunni militias gaining control of central cities such as Homs, Hama and Idlib, while Alawites retreat to parts of Damascus and Latakia province in the north. Assad might still claim to be president in this scenario, but he would be little more than a warlord (albeit one with access to chemical weapons). It’s a grim scenario in which Western air power would have limited effect.”

To create jobs for their young populations, Arab economies need to integrate, according to an Oxford University study published in December by Adeel Malik and Bassem Awadallah, a former Jordanian finance minister. It highlights restrictions on the movement of investment, goods and people across borders.

The result, in an Arab world with a population of 350 million, is “insignificant” levels of internal trade and regional markets that are “cut off from each other and from the rest of the world,” they wrote. It can be cheaper for a Jordanian company to import from the U.K. than from nearby Lebanon, while “visa requirements for traveling within the region can sometimes be as cumbersome as the journey itself.

Whoever takes office will have to win back people like Mohammed, Ahmed and the others camped outside the Libyan Embassy trying to flee Egypt. Poverty and unemployment have clouded their view of the revolution they supported.

“There is no change,” said Mohammed. “We want to feel that we have rights in our own country. Who feels that way?” he asked, looking at the men gathered around him. Most replied: “No one!”

Bashar al-Assad is acting victorious, marching under the gaze of state television crews into the ruins of the Baba Amr district of Homs, the city bombarded by his forces for nearly a month. In TV footage this week, the Syrian leader is seen surrounded by loyalists described as residents, though most of the inhabitants have fled. He blames his enemies for the devastation and promises to rebuild Baba Amr.

Mr Assad’s tour was another grotesque show of force aimed at humiliating the rebellious people of the district, who faced collective punishment for allowing Free Syrian Army fighters to protect them. It was also a manifestation of a renewed self-confidence following the regime’s seizure of a series of strongholds that had fallen under rebel control and brought the armed opposition dangerously close to the gates of Damascus.

The problem for Mr Assad, however, is that the Annan plan gives no relief from the most dangerous threat he faces. That threat has never been from the armed rebels but from the peaceful demonstrators who continue to stage protests more than a year after the eruption of the revolt. “As soon as a ceasefire takes hold, Bashar falls because the people will be on the streets in millions, even in Damascus,” says Samir Seifan, a Syrian economist who has joined the opposition. “There will be no need for the FSA whose members know that demonstrations are what will bring down the regime.” Mr Assad, insists Mr Seifan, can score military gains but he cannot win the war against the popular uprising.

@ ZOO #294: According to Jihad Maqdisi in the interview linked to by JAD at #280, “Mr. Kofi Annan acknowledged the right of the State to respond to armed violence.” But I cannot find Kofi Annan quoted saying that anywhere on the Internet. I would like Kofi Annan to come out and say it clearly on the public record, and reiterate it. And reiterate it again.

@ ZOO #294: According to Jihad Maqdisi in the interview linked to by JAD at #280, “Mr. Kofi Annan acknowledged the right of the State to respond to armed violence.” But I cannot find Kofi Annan quoted saying that anywhere on the Internet. I would like Kofi Annan to come out and say it clearly on the public record, and reiterate it. And reiterate it again.

The al qaeda-obsessed propagandists here must be dumb or they hope people reading their media shabbiha posts are really dumb.

This is the first time we’ve seen al qaeda working with a western-supported side, target buildings rather than people, team up with other political and organised groups etc – lots of firsts.

While these “new type” al qaeda try out this approach in obscurity and confusion, their limelight and messages are being stolen by that unbalanced loner in Paris who demonstrated the real face of al qaeda.

It’s fair to conclude Assad’s al quaeda have links with the phantom al qaeda that Gaddafi and Ben Ali were squawking about when their own citizens had them on the run.

Syrian (Revution):
No Alqaeda
Not Sectarian
No Kiddnapping
No lying
No killing
No violence
Selmiee
No foreign fighters
No Israeli weapons
No Aljazera lies
No public hanging
Not Islamic
Not Sunni
No foreign influence
No killing 3000 soldiers
No jesr Alshogour Massacr
No Karam Alzaiton massacr
No Sari Saaoud killing
No sari Hasson killing
No George Gharam killing
No Nidal Janoud killing
No cutting soldier body in DearAlzour
No soldier torturing
No Damascus bombing
No Aleppo Bombing
No Ezla Attack
Not Turkeys puppets
No Khaled Abo Salah staging and lies
No Dany and CNN staging and lies
No Alhamedia crime against humanity
No Alhamedia Ethnic cleansing
No Dear Sidnya Attack

I do not think that Annan’s plan is going to work, there is no chance that the Syrian army will abandon it’s responsibility in providing safety and security to all Syrians, until there is a clear indication that the rebellion is dead and the militant are willing to join the reform the plan is dead on arrival. i see no chance of no winners or losers in Syria, one side has to win and i think that side is the government side.

You are right, there are so many first times. But I would have thought that they would instrumentalize the whole issue over and over, but thats just not happening.The first two days after the bombings you see the dreadful images, but no confessionshows or other investigations were made public. Given the nature of Syrias security apparatus its quite embarassing if we would believe such thing as an syrian Alquaida has the ability to strike just a mile from important goverment buildings and even the residency of the President isnt that far. How can he sleep tight nowadays?

Hi Hopeful,
I’m impressed with your analysis of the Syrian groups at this stage, I’m also in agreement with your 3 major political parties that is going to dominate the Syrian political life if the changes promised by the government went through, with one change to the the Syrian Islamic Coalition that it will be hidden or coated with something not so obvious, not sure what, probably ‘Conservative party’ without a strong Islamic flavor to it.
I only have couple points that I disagree with you on
-for some reason you put the silent Sunni majority as a one group into the ‘Islamist’ group along the Salafis and the Conservatives (probably MBs) which is in my opinion an unfair judgement to the majority of the Syrian society since this group as you wrote it (moderate) and (completely unpoliticized) to be put with the radicals.
-Ignoring the ethnic minorities (Kurds, Assyrians, Armenians ets..) from the whole study is a flaw that needs to be addressed and analyzed.
-Asking the ‘Islamists’ and the ‘liberal democrats’ to convince the “minority” and that “nationalist” of their agenda is like asking the devil to convince God in his good nature which won’t happen

Other than that you did a great work, form a truly Syrian point of view and not the stereotypical sectarian western views.
Thank you

prof landis on the previous thread, in the al monitor video debate, argued syrians lack a unifying identify. bassma kodmani said she couldn’t disagree more. she insisted despite the various sects, syrians strongly feel the sense of being syrian.

doesn’t everybody want democracy? doesn’t everybody want to be free? couldn’t that also be a unifying force? why does one need to cling to sectarian identity in order to have a sense of that we are all in this together?

1. Perhaps I should have called the 2nd category the “Conservatives” or the “Sunni Religious” group instead of the “Islamists”. This category will include the moderates (2.3), the extremists (2.2), and the ultra-extremists(2.1). While I agree that this group is moderate and un-politicized, I also believe that, today, this group lacks the political sophistication to vote for anyone who is NOT a sunni muslim in any truly democratic election.

2. Regarding the ethnic minorities other than the Alawites and the Christians, I can be wrong but I believe that they are divided between the first (specifically 1.2 & 1.3) and the third category (specifically 3.1); and therefore, they do not “form” a single group from the political affiliation/ideology perspective.

3. I am asking the moderates from all categories to restrain the extremists in their own category and reach out to the moderates in the other categories. This is my hope!

1-I agree that the majority of this group will vote for a Syrian ‘Sunni muslim in any truly democratic election’, however they will vote for someone of THEM, which means a moderate not a conservative or even an ultra conservative and as a result a Moderate representative will lead the ‘Conservative’ group. Right?

2-I can’t see any average Syrian Kurd to be under category 1.2 or 1.3
and we defiantly have a problem putting them under 3.1 because of the conflict history with the ‘Arabism’ government policies.
To be honest, I find the Syrian Kurds to be more politically mature than almost all the politicians, loyalist and oppositions put together, they are very liberal even thought they belong to the same religious of the conservative, and very peaceful and protective to their peaceful movement than any other group in Syria today who went crazy and partnered with the devil.
In my humble opinion, the majority of the Syrian Kurds proved to be more Syrians than all of us.
I also agree that they can`t form a single group but at the same time it`s difficult to separate them in the proposed categories, I might be wrong, but that is my opinion reading your excellent analysis.

Lybia is indeed a Qatari “success”: it is the next Soudan.http://www.egyptindependent.com/node/742711
“The head of Libya’s Toubou tribe on Friday called for international intervention to halt what he called the “ethnic cleansing” of his people after deadly clashes in the southern oasis of Sabha.

“We demand that the United Nations and European Union intervene to stop the ethnic cleansing of the Toubou,” said Issa Abdel Majid Mansur, a former opposition activist against the ousted regime of slain dictator Muammar Qadhafi.

He accused Arab tribes in Sabha of bombarding a power station providing electricity to several parts of southern Libya including Qatrun and Morzuk, both areas with a strong Toubou presence. (…)”

Omen
If you See in History 30-40 are Not much.there is much hate Torwards religious and Religion in General in Iran.the Mullahs have accomplished by islamising every Part of the Life that a Whole Generation turns against Religion. Iranians are smart enough to know that this Regime is enjoying its Last years.

Omen
I am not saying that the regime is angels.What I am saying is that having such a dirty (revolution )is not justifiable.
One time a philospher was asked how he thinks the third world war will be? His answe was he doesn’t know,but he thinks that the 4th world war is going to be
With rocks and sticks.
The opposition should put their dirty but down and sit on the table.

All what the so called arab spring is creating is failed states that’s what the Neocon planned for the Arabs, Gaza, Iraq, Somali, Tunisia, Libya, and Syria is next, it is clear that no one benefit from this new Geopolitical state more than Israel and all the ones who denies the western conspiracy are either part of the conspiracy or in denial for the purpose of climbing to the helm.
MB and Alqaida are all over the Arab Spring, USA in support to place radical regimes in place of Autocratic regimes.
Although this may be a tactical move to put citizens under more Misery given radical regimes have mentality of retards at best.
Internet and other ways of communication have made the world a tiny small lake where everyone can see the other naked in the same lake therefore the only options of the radicals is to continue to swim underwater, which means ending to the radicals ideology in time.
The only exception to this hypothesis that radical usually withdraw from the civilization and shell themselves into an rock shell where the only respond you will have is more terrorist attacks and radicalization.
Afghanistan and other countries can attest well to this theory.
Assad worst mistake is allowing the Sunni to build more mosques in the last 40 years than building schools in Syria. Mosques raise only more hardliners and more terrorists at the end of the day.http://observers.france24.com/

DAMASCUS — Syria declared Saturday it had defeated those seeking to bring down the regime while reiterating support for a UN-Arab peace plan, as its troops reportedly shelled rebels in the flashpoint city of Homs.

Foreign ministry spokesman Jihad Makdisi, cited by the official SANA news agency, also said that Syrian troops would withdraw from urban areas once they had been stabilized.
….
“The battle to topple the state is over, and the battle to solidify stability . . . and move on towards a renewed Syria has begun,” Makdisi said in an interview originally carried on state television.

The spokesman said the Assad government’s focus was also to “rally visions behind the reform process” and “prevent those who seek to sabotage reform.”

Troops would withdraw from urban areas once they were secured, he said, adding UN-Arab League envoy Kofi Annan acknowledged there were “illegitimate armed elements within the opposition”.

“The presence of the Syrian Arab army in Syrian cities is for defensive purposes (so) as to protect the civilians,” Makdisi was quoted as saying by SANA.

“Once peace and security prevail, the army is to pull out,” he added.

SANA said that Makdisi made the appearance on television in a bid to explain to Syrians why the government had this week accepted Annan’s six-point peace plan.
….
A UN official in New York said a minimum of 250 observers would be needed if the Syrian government halted its offensive on protesters and gave its agreement for the international force.
(…}

In Bahrein victims only “allege”, and in Hillary’s “wonderful potential” KSA, victims are totally silenced.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-17564341
Amnesty International has demanded the jailed Bahraini human rights activist, Abdulhadi al-Khawaja, be released “immediately and unconditionally”.
Mr Khawaja has been on a hunger strike for the past 51 days and as his condition deteriorates there is growing concern that he may die in prison.
He is refusing food in protest at the life sentence he received in June for allegedly plotting against the state.
Amnesty described his trial by a military court as “grossly unfair”. (…)
Abdulhadi al-Khawaja told the BBC before his arrest on 8 April that he had deliberately stayed away from Pearl Roundabout.
“I don’t want to give the authorities any reason to arrest me,” he said.
He was nevertheless picked up in a late night raid and subsequently received a life sentence from a military tribunal for plotting the overthrow of the government. (…)
He was taken to a Bahrain Defence Force (BDF) hospital and spent seven days blindfolded and handcuffed to his bed, he told the BICI. While in hospital, he and his family were threatened with sexual abuse, he said.
Mr Khawaja said he then spent two months in solitary confinement in prison and was denied access to a lawyer. He also alleged that he was sexually assaulted and regularly beaten.” (…)

Teachers killers are darkness forces.Why are (revolutionists ) killing teachers?
Any one who supports them is teachers killer? Why would you kill someone who left his family and kids sometime to come all the way from Tartous to teach your kids?Because he or she is Alawi or Christian ? How low is that?Any one who support teachers killer is a teacher killer.keep closing your eyes to the fact that this is terrorist Tilibani Syrian movement .keep acting blind and deny that this is
Alqaeda Afghan style jihad.Keep putting your retarded revenge filled brain in the
Sand and Dirt of wahbism and Islamic extremism until worms eat it:

It is almost certain that Mubarak will not live to hear the verdict against him in June.His natural death,assuming that conspiracy theorists do not come with a new story,will provide an easy exit for the ruling military council that will NOT accept a death penalty against him.
Imagine a situation where corrupt and brutal Arab rulers suffer from a swift and fatal illness and spare their countries the agony of lengthy trials,after all,natural death can not be called violence and nobody can sue God.
الأعمار بيد الله but how come wonderful people often live a relatively short life and many others live longer than Noah?
BTW,if Hamad is the heart of Syria,then we must register the country for a heart transplant before it is too late.

A question. [At the risk of being shot down. Perhaps a desperate strategy]

If the opposition gets desperate do you think the FSA will decided to speed up the fall of the economy thru targeting the vulnerable banking sector by robbing banks without physically* hurting anybody? To have a real affect they would have to target the banks in the major cities rather than in rebel areas.

Do you think these ‘Robin Hood’ operations can be justified** under certain circumstances, where the whole purpose would be to topple the increasingly cruel regime via the economic/financial structure?

* Such operations would have to be carefully considered so that any banks with guards are not targeted.

** There is the issue of harming peoples savings. Would these savings be guaranteed anyway by the banks or government? Perhaps the opposition can promise that a future government will recompense those affected?

Maybe the money attained in these operations can be held in a safe place to return later. Alternatively it can temporarily be used to buy necessities for the suffering people. Perhaps even arms.

To have a real affect they would have to target the banks in the major cities.

The Arsonists M.Brothers sure will be thrown in the dustbin of history,The sun is just dawning.By the time,it is mid day-The Arsonists would have been vanquished by the great syrian fire fighters from the face of the earth.

So KSA support arming the Syrians, USA said we should help in non lethal aid, and US …suspect… that Assad will not survive.
There is clear change in US position,or that is the position of USA from the begining and they have not been telling the truth, I believe the later, I think that is why Turkey has not been able to do anything yet, Israel and USA they prefer to keep Assad, and USA wants to support Iran as a mjor power in the middle East, they just do not want Iran to have nuclear power,the whole thing is conspiracy against the Arab, Change in Syria to a democratic country is against USA policy, it is a worry to the USA to see Arab spring, and wants to stop it,
There is no way Arab springs were successful in four countries and Syria will not succeed, what is left is Syria, and Syria will succeed too, but because the US and Israel support for Assad it will take time, but it is a sure thing,

It is silly to ask for a unified opposition,The US has more than one part, they are not unified,the demonstrating people inside Syria are unifified,against Assad, this demand is nothing but justification for not wanting to do anything.

The trap of “majority rule” and why it needs to be replaced with a democracy rulehttp://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2012/mar/31/egypt-constitution-majority-rule
The only legitimate majority is the one achieved by consensus and elections.
If majority rule means dividing the society into ethnic and sectarian blocks,then we would have never seen a black president in the US or women in leadership positions.
I am glad that more people are realizing ,finally,that a unified opposition is a mirage,the other mirage is that violence will bring freedom.

You may have already heard about George Galloway winning a stunning By-election victory on thursday and returning to parliament. Great news to see him back in the heart of british politics.

Moving on.

Do you think we will see an end to Assad and his regimes indefatigability?

If the situation remains unchanged upto Ramadan in mid-July then I think we will see much more defections particularly in the military. Those who have been internally torn and haven’t taken the brave step to jump ship may just do so. The blessed month of Ramadan may be what it takes to help them make that decision. It may push them over the line.