Posts Tagged ‘Oil Industry’

The gold market is heading towards a big fundamental change that few are prepared. While many analysts in the alternative media community suggest that the gold price is manipulated due to Fed & Central bank intervention, there is another more obscure rationale that is the likely culprit: “The Blind Conspiracy” Most investors are entirely in the dark about the dire energy predicament we are facing.

Investors overlooked the bearish news of crude stocks that still remain at all-time highs, because of another more interesting development. Gasoline stocks have declined rather significantly in recent weeks, at a much faster rate than at this point in the 2016 season as demand is rising. That, along with a few more reasons, makes one surely feel optimistic about oil prices.

I’m keeping a close eye on the oil market, and on the moves that Saudi Arabia is making to manipulate oil prices. Over time, Saudi Arabia will be unable to affect oil prices as much as they have been able to in the past. Prices for oil trade around $50 a barrel and recently set lows for the year, but I am actually more bullish on oil prices than was ever before. Here’s why.

It does not seem that Trump’s new sanctions can do much to deter Iran. Political posturing in the form of targeted sanctions may cause anti-American sentiment in the country to flare-up as Iranian politicians paint Trump as the ultimate boogeyman, however, the scope of the unilateral sanctions will prevent any serious consequences to Iran’s oil sector moving forward.

An emphasis by oil companies on frugality in operations mean a certain amount of cost-cutting should be sustained in the coming years. Slashed expenditures in the oil industry are expected to add up to $1 trillion dollars over the 2015 – 2020 period. Dollar weakness & production freeze hopes combine again to rally crude oil prices higher. Here are 5 things to consider in crude oil markets today.

On June 6, Morgan Stanley released a report saying that “all eyes” are on the U.S. to see if drilling will return now that oil prices are back above $50, after having rallied roughly 85% since February. There are a few early signs that drilling is starting to begin again. The oil rig count jumped by nine last week to 325 active oil rigs, the sharpest increase since December 2015.

Crude oil storage levels have once again increased. The Rystad Energy figures show that the supply-demand balance could quickly swing back in the other direction as upstream investment has screeched to a halt. The oil markets have always suffered from booms and busts, and this is just more of the same. The current bust is sowing the seeds of the next boom.

A deal among some OPEC producers and Russia to freeze production is perhaps “meaningless” as Saudi Arabia is the only country with the ability to increase output, a senior executive from the International Energy Agency (IEA) said. It’s more some kind of gesture which perhaps is aimed … to build confidence that there will be stability in oil prices.

While OPEC has been reticent and reluctant to defend its oil production levels this year, Russia has been unabashedly boosting exports after six years of declines. As refinery improvements have caused less domestic crude oil demand, this has opened up a window of opportunity for the country to export more.

I believe that another plunge in the oil price is required to thrust a dagger through the heart of US shale drillers and the banks that have supported them. Low oil price will at some point result in the situation reversing & prices will turn very quickly. But before that can happen, production momentum needs to be switched off & I dare say that requires a sharply lower oil price.

The oil industry is permeated in gloom right now because of oversupply & weak demand. Small producers are going out of business & a wave of energy-related bond defaults is about to wash over the fixed-income markets. But the oil majors are positioning themselves to benefit from the rebound of prices in late 2016 and early 2017. The time to play this rebound is now.

The strategy, promoted by Saudi Oil Minister was meant to keep oil prices low temporarily & starve many non-OPEC oil producers of profits & restore the cartel’s global market share. The primary target of the OPEC plan was oil production from shale in the United States, which relies on hydraulic fracturing that can’t make money unless oil sells for at least $60 per barrel.

Despite low oil prices, Saudi Arabia is maintaining its investment in its oil industry. The Saudi government revenue and expenditure data suggest that the Saudis must do far more than “reduce investment” in 2016: the precipitous drop in oil prices—a consequence of their new policy—has put Saudi Arabia on an unsustainable financial path.

US stocks are still in a bull market. Large parts of the stock market are down significantly since June. Last Friday, Bloomberg reported that “roughly half the biggest stocks are mired in corrections, down 10 percent or more from their one-year high.” The S&P 500 is now up 210% from its 2009 low, and is up 2.1% this year. How can the stock market be up when so many stocks are down?

Domestic oil inventories still stand at near-record levels for this time of year in at least 80 years. Because oil remains in oversupply, the recent rally owes a lot to currency moves. We might be seeing a dollar reset, which should finally give oil, gold, copper & other important commodities – the much-needed breathing room.

The short-term pain the oil industry is currently facing is necessary & none must not stop this natural process through misguided stimulus in an effort to prevent oil company layoffs. Such efforts are likely to only benefit giant oil companies, as seen in the wake of the 2008 crisis where the biggest banks were the biggest winners.

A massive build-up of crude oil inventories is seen in the US, to levels never seen in recent history. The International Energy Agency has even warned that the US will run out of storage soon. Why do producers continue to pump at low prices? It seems that at that point someone will have to finally stop pumping crude oil out of the ground.

If the price of oil stays at this level for the rest of the year, we are going to see a whole bunch of energy companies fail, billions of dollars of debt issued by energy companies could go bad, and trillions of dollars of derivatives related to the energy industry could implode. This is just the beginning of the oil crisis.

Oil market gyrations touch everything. So you have to either figure out how to ride the train… or get crushed beneath the wheels. How long can you expect low oil prices to last? Over the long haul, it is simply too valuable a commodity to stay “cheap.” Any number of events could trigger prices to rebound. Anything could happen.

The bright spot for US over past few years has been the surge in energy production, called the “American Energy Revolution”. I believe oil headed higher because the Fed was printing money. Why is it that oil started falling when the mass of analysts came to believe the Fed would finally tighten? So oil now needs QE4 for higher prices again.