Has he produced a heir with Alina Kabaeva? Is he plotting nuclear war with the West from his bunker at Mount Yamantau? Has he been abducted by aliens? Or is the Mausoleum about to get a new occupant??

Let’s consider the possibilities one by one:

Putin is ill

This is according to an anonymous Kazakh official, following the cancelation of a planned visit to Astana. This is being denied by Putin’s spokesman Dmitry Peskov, who said Putin was “breaking hands” in response to a question about his handshake. Naturally. But it has to be admitted that a week and counting is a long time in politics. Still, everyone gets the flu now and then, and in a highly personalistic power system like Russia’s it might not do well to display the fact. When alpha male chimps become ill, rather than weather challenges from young upstarts while they are relatively incapacitated, they prefer to wander into the forest, come back when they get better, and act as if nothing out of the norm had happened (or they die). It would not do for people to see the Tsar and arbiter of the Kremlin clans coughing, sneezing, and bedridden like some old geezer.

Putin is incapacitated or dead

Perhaps he had a stroke or heart attack. Maybe he’s dead, and Maidanist Ukrainians can jump in glee, like the Prussians did in the correct belief that Elizaveta had died and the war against them would soon end, or the top Nazis in 1945 on the incorrect belief that the death of FDR would presage the unraveling of the Alliance.

Unfortunately for them, this is almost certainly out of the question, and not only because keeping such a development in Russia, which after all is still a largely open information space, is practically unfeasible.

The first reason to treat rumors of Putin’s death from health complications is that he is an extremely healthy physical specimen, a genuine judoka who starts his day with a few laps in the swimming pool and rarely drinks. This alone would make the average Russian male life expectancy of 65 years completely inapplicable to him. Second, he enjoys basically billionaire-level healthcare. Yeltsin, an obese alcoholic who suffered from heart attacks every other year, still managed to eke out 76 years with the help of elite healthcare. Finally, the Putins appear to be an unusually long-lived family in general. His mother, Maria Ivanovna, died at the age of 87, and his father, Vladimir Spiridonovich, at 88. His paternal grandfather, Spiridon Putin, who incidentally happened to be a cook to Lenin and Stalin, died at the age of 86. His other children also tended to die at advanced ages – Anna at 80, and as far as I can establish, Alexander (born in 1920) and Ludmila (born in 1926) were alive at least until 2000, though I’m uncertain about Mikhail (born in 1913). Only one of Spiridon Putin’s children died early, but that was from a German shell or bullet in 1941. Longevity is moderately heritable, and such consistently high lifespans are highly unusual for 20th century Russia. Of course a healthy lifestyle, genetics, and elite healthcare are no absolute guarantee against a premature death, but when virtually all the variables are stacked in your favor, it makes it very unlikely. I may have to eat a bullet on this, but I fully expect Putin’s lifespan to be comparable to Castro’s.

One final reason to treat claims of Putin’s premature demise with skepticism is that this is hardly the first time it’s happened. There is a small minority of Russians who desperately and fervently wish him dead, and are more than happy to provide grist for the rumor mill, and there is a much larger group of Westerners who would be very happy at treat the resulting product as wheat when all the evidence points to it being chaff. There was an analogous case in 2012, when Putin also disappeared for a few days following what was likely a minor back injury during judo practice. That didn’t stop Russian emigre journalist Leonid Bershidsky from upgrading it to spinal cancer, a claim which seems to have been originally posted by a minor Russian oppositionist and soon afterwards activelypropagated by the Chechen Islamist terrorist website Kavkaz Center:

Today I learned from a source in the presidential administration, that our alpha dog is not simply sick but he is sick with spine sarcoma (spinal cancer,) and 3 months are left for the life of this guy. The cancer cannot be treated, and there is already a struggle inside the KGB for powerful positions.

A probable successor will actually be the shaman Shoigu (Russia’s new defense minister), and soon there will be a lot of interesting events, in particular, before the next special operation to transfer the throne from one thief to another; half of the of weapons are planned to be confiscated from the population. So, in 2013 there will be fun. We must prevent a new thief from the Putin’s gang to move to the Kremlin.

This has all the usual Kremlinological dreck, which we’ll come to in a sec, but first, a litte aside: The reference to “shaman” is on account of Shoigu’s Buddhism. I did say this is an extremist Islamist website, which openly and proudly celebrates terrorist attacks on Russian soil. But funnily enough, it happens to be hosted without any problems on a Finnish server. One can only imagine the problems, say, Al Qaeda or ISIS would have if they were to try to get hosting in a Western country. It pays for an Islamist terrorist group to have the right sugardaddy.

Problem: Mounting a coup against Putin is hard. No major interest group has beef with him: The non-systemic opposition is impotent, truculent oligarchs have long since been purged or coopted, and the political elites – especially the siloviki, or security personnel – are largely agreed with his domestic and foreign policy course. The civiliki, or liberal technocrats, might not be quite as happy, but they are also divided and frankly don’t have the requisite balls to attempt a coup anyway. Even if they did, they would still have to figure out how to manage a population that at this point in history virtually adulates Putin; at last count, his approval rating was at an astronomical 88%.

And the last, concrete argument against the coup theory is that the events of the past week don’t hew to the standard patterns of historical coup. The hard men at the FSB or the MVD would not be taking so long about it. The Army would be getting involved. Considering that they overwhelmingly sided with Gorbachev in August 1991, when his popularity was already at rock bottom, it is inconceivable that Russia’s apolitical generals would side against Putin. There would almost certainly be blood in the streets. No, the chances of a coup are infinitesimal. Putin is more likely dead from a stroke than under house arrest or something that approximates to it.

Out of all these options, the only more or less remotely feasible one is that Putin is preparing some kind of major new denouement, such as the formation of a new government, or a major change of policy – there are mixed signals, so it could be in either direction – on Ukraine.

The Grozny Gambit

In 1564, getting tired of the aristocracy’s incompetence and venality, Ivan Grozny (mistranslated as “The Terrible”) left his throne for a monastery in disgust. Unable to govern and threatened by the Moscow mob, the boyars begged him to come back. Ivan agreed, but only on condition that they vest him with absolute power. The boyars acceded to his ultimatum. Ivan returned in 1565, and created the infamous oprichnina, with their Nazgul-like black attire and black horses, and pommel-mounted dog heads and brooms to “sniff out and sweep away” treason. The Russian state became centralized as never before, but at the cost of eventual ruin and economic collapse.

Is Putin doing the Grozny Gambit, betting that Russia will become ungovernable in his absence and that the boyars and the people will demand his return on any condition?

Much as this image of Tsar Putin would satiate the hearts and minds of romantics and neoreactionaries… no. Just no. Putin isn’t one for the melodramatic, or the taking of unnecessary risks for gains that he doesn’t even aspire to it in the first place.

Kabaeva love child

Putin’s amorous relationship with rhythmic gymnast and Olympic champion Alina Kabaeva has been the stuff of Kremlin rumors and febrile imaginations for the past seven years. The general story is that Putin and Kabaeva became engaged in 2008, married in 2013, and had a child in Switzerland this February. Though strongly denied by Putin’s spokespeople, the timing of his divorce from his first wife Ludmila, in 2013, is certainly interesting. And a Twitter account, most convincingly named @kabaeva_russia, claimed that she “just had a son” two days ago.

Which doesn’t square with the “Es ist ein Madchen!” soundbyte adopted by the media. Or with why a privacy-conscious Putin would go to Switzerland; it’s not like Russia doesn’t have any elite obstetrics facilities. Or with Kabaeva’s figure a couple of months ago, which doesn’t exaclty look seven months pregnant.

Frankly, the likeliest possibility is that Putin’s team tolerates and even gently promotes these rumors, since virility is generally considered to be a good thing in leaders – better than being sick, at any rate.

Still, Leonid Bershidsky is ON IT, so that must at least count for something.

Schrodinger’s Putin

My bet is still on a particularly nasty flu or maybe a mild-to-moderate health issue, which if so would probably be highly visual, like Botox gone wrong. 88% approval rating or not, he’d still be a laughing stock.

But surely I am not alone in hoping for Putin’s glorious emergence on Red Square soon before the assembled people, a cyborg robot suit in place of torso, Monomakh’s Cap on his head, and a swaddled infant-heir in his arms, proclaiming the foundation of the Imperial Russian Horde.

Either way, we’ll find soon enough. Appointments have been scheduled, prior postponements have to be made good; we are unlikely to be waiting for answers for very much longer.

No new information there, but still an interesting blogpost. Thanks for posting.

Read More

ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc.

AgreeDisagreeLOLTroll

These buttons register your public Agreement, Disagreement, Troll, or LOL with the selected comment. They are ONLY available to recent, frequent commenters who have saved their Name+Email using the 'Remember My Information' checkbox, and may also ONLY be used once per hour.

The official site of the president of Armenia announced a few days ago that Sargsyan spoke to Putin over the phone. That implies that Putin is conscious, in power, but not presentable in front of the cameras for the moment. He could have thrown out his back or he could be recovering from plastic surgery.

Colonel Cassad is guessing that Putin is preparing a major change in the Novorossian policy (more support, not less). I have a lot of respect for Colonel Cassad, but he lives and breathes Novorossia, so everything probably seems to him related to it now. Why would the preparation of a major change in policy require a week-long absence from TV screens?

There are also those rumors that Putin regularly visits a cancer specialist in Eastern Germany because he is really ill. But this probably has nothing to do with the fact that he was not in public for a weak. Anyway it would really surprise me if somebody like Putin would not have some 8-12 children with different women.

But surely I am not alone in hoping for Putin’s glorious emergence on Red Square soon before the assembled people, a cyborg robot suit in place of torso, Monomakh’s Cap on his head, and a swaddled infant-heir in his arms, proclaiming the foundation of the Imperial Russian Horde.

[…] In Switzerland to witness the birth of the heir shouts the New York Post quoting a Swiss paper. Of course we can’t expect the mainstream media to have the resources of Anatoly Karlin who found a photo of the obviously un-pregnant so-called girlfriend. […]

Nassim Taleb says if you want to accelerate someone’s death, give him a personal doctor. Putin must have several looking after him.

Gerd Gigenrenzer says in general doctors will cover themselves by over treating you. (Slow growing cancers ect that you would be better off leaving alone). The Russian way is to use a sledgehammer to crack a nut, so I would not place too much faith in their methods in regard to cancer treatment. He hasn’t lost enough lean tissue to have had surgery, but this is more than a bad cold.

Anatoly, are you planning to write something about the myth that Stalin disappeared for ten days for a drinking binge? This is just nonsense, his work schedule is well known and he worked his ass off the first week of the war until June 30, when he did seem to have a minor nervous breakdown due to both the increasingly catastrophic situation and extreme sleep deprivation. He was visited by members of the Politburo on July 2, after which he went back working, giving his famous speech on July 3. So only one and a half days did he spend off work, but he wasn’t missing during those days either, because the Politburo knew where he was: he took a couple of days off, that’s all.

[…] In Switzerland to witness the birth of the heir shouts the New York Post quoting a Swiss paper. Of course we can’t expect the mainstream media to have the resources of Anatoly Karlin who found a photo of the obviously un-pregnant so-called girlfriend. […]

Anatoly, are you planning to write something about the myth that Stalin disappeared for ten days for a drinking binge? This is just nonsense, his work schedule is well known and he worked his ass off the first week of the war until June 30, when he did seem to have a minor nervous breakdown due to both the increasingly catastrophic situation and extreme sleep deprivation. He was visited by members of the Politburo on July 2, after which he went back working, giving his famous speech on July 3. So only one and a half days did he spend off work, but he wasn't missing during those days either, because the Politburo knew where he was: he took a couple of days off, that's all.

I was referring to Stalin’s supposed disappearance after June 22, 1941.

The real true rumor is that the original Putin is dead and has been replaced with a surgery enhanced double. This is borne out by the story that Putin’e own dog did not recognize the new double and barked repeatedly at him as though he were a stranger. Pass it on.

When alpha male chimps become ill, rather than weather challenges from young upstarts while they are relatively incapacitated, they prefer to wander into the forest, come back when they get better, and act as if nothing out of the norm had happened.

,

Why about this in particular? Sure it’s one of the (pretty numerous) misconceptions about Soviet WW2 history, but not one of the more important ones.

Over the past few weeks during Putin's disappearance I encountered it several times, for example a couple of commentators mentioned it over at Steve Sailer's blog. So I think it's quite widespread. But you can blog about whatever topic you find interesting, of course.

The real true rumor is that the original Putin is dead and has been replaced with a surgery enhanced double. This is borne out by the story that Putin'e own dog did not recognize the new double and barked repeatedly at him as though he were a stranger. Pass it on.

When alpha male chimps become ill, rather than weather challenges from young upstarts while they are relatively incapacitated, they prefer to wander into the forest, come back when they get better, and act as if nothing out of the norm had happened.

@reiner Tor,

Why about this in particular? Sure it's one of the (pretty numerous) misconceptions about Soviet WW2 history, but not one of the more important ones.

Over the past few weeks during Putin’s disappearance I encountered it several times, for example a couple of commentators mentioned it over at Steve Sailer’s blog. So I think it’s quite widespread. But you can blog about whatever topic you find interesting, of course.

[…] In Switzerland to witness the birth of the heir shouts the New York Post quoting a Swiss paper. Of course we can’t expect the mainstream media to have the resources of Anatoly Karlin who found a photo of the obviously un-pregnant so-called girlfriend. […]

Panhandling

If you like the words I write, and want to see more of them, here’s a way you can make that happen: http://akarlin.com/donations/

***

Blogroll

This is not so much meant to be comprehensive as to illustrate the themes and individual thinkers whom I follow and am inspired by.

I do not bother including any MSM outlets, since I’m sure they can do just fine without my publicity.

Blogs which I consider to be particularly good and/or prominent are highlighted in bold, and blogs that appear to have gone dormant appear at the end in italics. While I try to keep these things objective, if you include me in your blogroll that does vastly increase the chances that I’ll reciprocate.

Friends/Allies (Russia)

In countries, like Australia, Canada or New Zealand, there is a more wide variety candidates
Hahahahahahahahahahhahahahahahahahahaa
On the one hand: 'conservative' party whose economic strategy begins with endless foreign coolie labour and ends with housing bubbles.
On the other: coaliti...

Obesity is probably the best modern example.
If so, it's not a very strong argument. The obesity epidemic dates from the 1980s or so. How can something of such recent appearance be considered instinctive?
It can't.
More likely, the obesity epidemic has occurred because of food additives ...

utu:
Regarding Portuguese miscegenation, in colonial Angola I believe that it was one way in that white males interacting with indigenous females was permitted and even encouraged, but the reverse (indigenous males with white females) was forbidden or at the very least heavily discouraged.

No, because neither is satisfactory, and you did say "often the instinct is very wrong."
I did assume we are discussing human instinct rather than canine instinct. After all, a human knows not to chase a car, and we're not discussing building artificial dogs, are we?
Try again -- seriously...

The question of increasing the population might be hard to address in democracies, but I can’t really understand why is it so hard to deal with in an authoritarian state like Russia.
Because it's not an authoritarian state. And paying for other people's kids, or discriminating against people f...

How do you think that AI was able to come up with unique moveset combinations in Go?
Machine learning may have limits at present. But it's a lot like arguing that mathematics is largely useless because it was often inapplicable to day to day life in Eulicid's time due to poor measurements, etc...

It’s a common sperg religous value, really. Self-actualization: I can will myself to ultimate badassitude. Grind my way to the top. Never been borne out by the combat sports, where east Asians are somewhere near dead last.
Agree.
But, then, you talk about combat sports, not quite unarmed self-d...

This thread has well over 500 posts. No one you reply to will likely ever see your unlinked reply.
Can't you use JS on a public computer for 5 minutes or something? Do you have an ideological opposition to it?

Obesity is probably the best modern example, but there is a whole set of various panic responses from the fight or flight instinct. The Moros reflex in infants arguably useless as well since the grasping reflex is there but human infants are too weak to cling.
I don't, incidentally, see how yo...

Me no lie.
That some Scots don't know or regularly speak their native Gaelic language is indicative of Anglicization.
Relative to you reply, many Ukrainians speak Russian. This includes some pro-Euromaidan Ukrainians.

The idea that everyone, no matter what, deserves freedom and sovereignty is fundamentally a cuck take.
I don't think that has ever been my position, nor, frankly, do I think it is the position of most people who disagree with a crude might makes right approach that you seem to favour.
Greg Joh...

Would you agree that your thinking also has limits? That there same thoughts that you will never have or never will be able to comprehend? So how different are the limits you have from the limits a machine has?
And yet, there are those moments of clarity, even mystical experiences, who knows wha...

Or could it even be that the badness of the pozz is being overstated? That the multiracial, LGBT-friendly culture is a new viable equilibrium for a human society, rather than being a sign of decline and disintegration?
Poz is pretty bad, even without the overstating.
No, it's not a new viab...

The categories used for comparison may not be relevant since Russia has not recovered from the Soviet collapse. No doubt they have kept up in critical technical areas related to the military.
Are those categories really relevant at all? Did Karlin prove that or does he just expect us to accept...

You will not have a machine that can think on its own or go beyond what it is programmed to do.
Would you agree that your thinking also has limits? That there same thoughts that you will never have or never will be able to comprehend? So how different are the limits you have from the limit...

I agree!
However, if the brain is some kind of quantum computer, then it seems to me that makes the likelihood of consciousness in a Turing machine-based AI system less likely.
But as you say we can never know whether another person, let alone an A.I is conscious, as I, if not you, understand...

The point is that AI will never create its own decision tree. You will never build a program that functions like a cat.
What they call AI is simply pattern recognition with high-speed systems. You will not have a machine that can think on its own or go beyond what it is programmed to do.

All studies I have seen show that intelligibility levels are far higher between Norwegian and Swedish speakers than between Norwegian and Danish speakers.
The common stereotype I've heard is that Swedes understand Norwegian (bokmål, not nynorsk to the same extent) quite fluently whereas many wi...

Hey, if it's not in English it does not exist!
Interestingly, the theory of Alfred Wegener (which played a great role in the development of the theory of the abiotic origin of petroleum and in the prospections carried on by the Russians) was ignored and ridiculed by American (and British of cours...

Overestimated Zhirik, underestimated Grudinin (too much sovok rabble in Russia).
According to the exit poll of ВЦИОМ, age composition of Zhirik voters, is hardly better to Grudinin voters. So the idea that they will shortly die off, in comparison to Zhirik voters, does not favor well....

They believed they could civilize Africa using their sperm.
To support what I wrote I want to add this:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Racial_whitening
Racial whitening, or "whitening" (branqueamento), is an ideology that was widely accepted in Brazil between 1889 and 1914, as the solution ...