Dr. James H. Nolt is an Adjunct Professor at New York University. He has been a Senior Fellow at the World Policy Institute for 22 years. He is the author of International Political Economy: The Business of War and Peace. He has published a number of articles about the Chinese military and the East Asian military balance and blogs at www.polarizingpoliticaleconomy.com

James Nolt argues that what Trump seeks from China in the trade war is managed trade, not free trade. Unfortunately for China, the model of a “managed trade” solution crafted during the 1980s between the U.S. and Japan is not an option.

Trump's protectionism is destined to endure because there is no compromise solution, James Nolt argues. Trump's idea of the problem is too far removed from reality to allow his tariff pressure to succeed.

As the U.S. and China exchange their first barrage of tariffs, it's worth examining the flawed logic that led the U.S. to begin this trade war. The reality is that the U.S. is not the paragon of a free market economy it presents itself as, and China is not as exploitative in trade as the Trump administration would suggest.

Although many interests in the U.S., China and around the world will be damaged if the world’s two largest economies engage in a trade war, it is likely that Trump would have to back down first, increasing China’s global power and influence.

We are currently headed into an unprecedented crisis in the world trading system that is not simply rooted in bad laws, weak institutions, reckless leaders or rogue nations; it is rooted in wrongheaded theories. The looming U.S.-China trade war is one of the real consequences of this.

Those who take Trump more literally on trade issues warn that he really does measure success by rebalancing trade in favor of significantly more U.S. exports and fewer imports. Most trade experts would agree that none of the concessions China is likely to make in the near future would significantly erode China’s massive trade surplus with the United States.