EU envoy pessimistic about Mid East ceasefire

The World Today - Tuesday, 18 July , 2006 12:18:00

Reporter: Rafael Epstein

ELEANOR HALL: While argument continues over whether the time is right for a US mission headed by Condoleezza Rice to travel to the Middle East, the European Union mission headed by foreign policy chief Javier Solana has just returned from the region expressing pessimism about a ceasefire being put in place any time soon.

The EU's Middle East Envoy, Mark Otti, said from his discussion with Israeli officials that any international peacekeeping force in Lebanon would face major challenges.

And he told our Europe Correspondent Rafael Epstein that any chance of defusing the crisis hinged on the United States.

MARK OTTI: We have still have two different positions, if you want, in terms of who will make one side stop will make the other stop.

The other thing that the international community has to do is patiently identify what is the long-term perspective in which a short-term resolution in the crisis could be obtained.

There are a number of things that everybody wants, is the freeing of their captives, stop destroying Lebanon. And therefore the first thing to do is to go and see and to express the need to stop hostilities.

RAFAEL EPSTEIN: Do you think there's any prospect of some sort of prisoner swap?

MARK OTTI: Listen, it has been done in the past. We know it's part of the deal.

RAFAEL EPSTEIN: Because presumably that's the only thing that's going to begin to stop the Israeli attacks on Lebanese territory?

MARK OTTI: Yeah, but I think Israel wants more than just recuperate its soldier. It wants to change the reality on the ground. They don't want to be depending only on the goodwill of Hezbollah. There will have to be more than just a return to the status quo ante.

And it's everybody's interests. A lot of people think that Hezbollah is not necessarily defending the interest of the Lebanese people.

RAFAEL EPSTEIN: This idea that Tony Blair and Kofi Annan are talking about today of some sort of UN stabilisation force, is that really something that's a possibility?

MARK OTTI: Yes, it is a possibility, but we know how this possibility can come about. No country is prepared to send troops that would have to fight one party or the other. That needs to be preceded by a ceasefire or a cessation of hostilities.

Now, this is an idea that has been raised. This is not a decision, or it is not even a proposal. It's an idea of one of the components. You don't just stop the crisis; you also try and put in place the element that will avoid the next crisis.

RAFAEL EPSTEIN: But you said before that Israel's going to want to get to a situation that isn't the status quo from beforehand. And Tony Blair's saying this peacekeeping force - even talking about it - could help bring us about a ceasefire. Do you think this is the sort of thing that is going to lead to Israel saying: "Well okay, if we get our prisoners back and if we get our soldiers back and we're not getting attacked, we might actually tolerate some sort of UN force in Lebanon"?

MARK OTTI: It's not for Israel to decide... only to decide whether they would tolerate or accept, first of all, Lebanon is a sovereign country. And secondly, that would be for the UN to decide.

RAFAEL EPSTEIN: But presumably you'd need some sort of Israeli agreement for the Americans to agree?

MARK OTTI: Well, that's another dimension. We need the US to be involved. There are a lot of people who think the US should be more involved, including some Americans.

RAFAEL EPSTEIN: Does the EU explicitly believe that America needs to do more?

MARK OTTI: I would not say. The EU hasn't taken a stand about what they think about what the US should do.

There have been calls in many places in Europe for the US to be more involved.

And by the way, I feel also that it has been the case in the American media and reflecting positions taken by people from the political establishment in Washington.

So this is not... We all know by experience that the US needs to be involved, one way or the other, to find a solution to issues relating to the Middle East. That's for sure.

ELEANOR HALL: And that's the EU's Middle East Envoy, Mark Otti, speaking to our Europe Correspondent Rafael Epstein. And we are hoping to cross to an analyst in Lebanon shortly.