Crest to hit Portage this evening

Water levels could threaten dikes along Assiniboine River

Hey there, time traveller!This article was published 8/7/2014 (884 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

With dikes along the Assiniboine River holding and only sunny skies in the forecast for most of the next week, the chance of the province making a deliberate breach at the Hoop and Holler Bend decreases by the hour.

Provincial officials said today it’s now unlikely a controlled release will take place at Hoop and Holler Bend unless Assiniboine River dikes become stressed.

PHIL HOSSACK / WINNIPEG FREE PRESS

A heavy-equipment operator reinforces a dike on the Assiniboine River between St. Eustache and Portage la Prairie. Purchase Photo Print

The province deliberately flooded farmland at Hoop and Holler during the height of the 2011 flood, but that decision was made when rain was in the forecast and out of concern for the stability of the dike system. The amount of water released through the Hoop and Holler breach in 2011 was approximately 400 cubic feet per second from May 14 to 20, 2011.

Doug McNeil, deputy minister of Infrastructure and Transportation, said at a flood briefing today all dikes along the river are holding with only minor seepage.

Right now the river is handling the peak amount of 18,000 cubic feet per second of water, with the crest of the floodwaters now expected to hit the Portage Reservoir today between 6 p.m. and midnight. The projected inflow to the reservoir is now 51,600 cfs. What doesn’t go down the Assiniboine River towards Winnipeg will be directed up the Portage Diversion into Lake Manitoba.

Once the crest passes through the reservoir, levels are forecast to drop relatively quickly.

Levels are forecast to rise again next week as a second crest builds on the upper Assiniboine and Qu'Appelle Rivers. Water levels between the Shellmouth Reservoir on the upper Assiniboine and St. Lazare to the south will be higher than 2011 flood levels, the province says.

The province is to release a revised forecast on what the second crest means for southern Manitoba later today.

The province says floodwaters are the product of a month of rain that has seen a large portion of western Manitoba and Saskatchewan inundated with more than 200 per cent of normal rainfall. (See map here.)

The province has already said it is studying how to improve western Manitoba's flood defences, originally built in the 1960s and 1970s, to accommodate more water. Recommendations for the improvements came out of an April 2013 independent report that reviewed the province’s response to the 2011 report.

The province has a preliminary plan and was supposed to open the plan to public consultation this spring, but that was delayed because of the flood threat.

Public meetings will now be held this fall.

bruce.owen@freepress.mb.ca

The gathering storm

The flood crest was expected to hit the Portage Reservoir immediately west of Portage la Prairie by about noon today. Flows into the reservoir from the Assiniboine River are forecast to be about 50,000 cubic feet per second, down from a predicted 54,000 on Friday.

Provincial officials have described the floodwaters as a surge, fed by runoff from heavy rains over the past month in Saskatchewan and western Manitoba. Once the crest passes, water levels will drop fairly quickly.

But not for long. Runoff from torrential Canada Day weekend rainstorms in both provinces is building on the upper Assiniboine River at the Shellmouth Reservoir near Russell and on the Qu'Appelle River in central Saskatchewan, which flows into the Assiniboine near the provincial boundary.

A second, lower peak estimated at 31,000 to 32,000 cfs is expected at Brandon July 17-18 and at the Portage Reservoir about three days later, depending on the weather. Projected inflows to the reservoir are 42,000 cfs.

The province has already activated the Red River Floodway to accommodate the higher water arriving in the city from the Assiniboine.

Volunteers needed

The Canadian Red Cross is sending volunteers to help Manitoba communities hit by flooding.

A Red Cross team was in Elkhorn Wednesday meeting with families. Members have already visited Virden and will be in Melita, Pipestone, Reston and St. Lazare throughout the rest of the week, the Red Cross said in a press release.

The organization is sending clean-up kits that include brooms, mops and cleaning solutions to Manitobans dealing with flooding. Personal hygiene supplies have been sent to people in Brandon, Virden, Sioux Valley, Ashern and Pipestone.

Anyone wanting to contribute to the Red Cross can do so online at www.redcross.ca/mbflood or by calling toll-free at 1-800-418-1111, or by visiting a Red Cross office.

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Updated on Wednesday, July 9, 2014 at 1:50 PM CDT: Updates with full write-thru; changes headline.

2:52 PM: Updates with full write-thru.

5:41 PM: Adds Red Cross information.

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