Welcome to our first quarterly newsletter of 2020.

Earlier this year the World Economic Forum published its 15thGlobal Risk Report 2020 ahead of its conference in Davos, which Willis Towers Watson attended as a strategic partner. For the first time, climate change and environmental risks rank in the top 5 in terms of likelihood (and 4 out of the top 5 in terms of impact). Interestingly, infectious diseases had not featured amongst the top risks over the last few years, either in terms of likelihood and impact. I suspect the survey will look very different next year.

2020 is still set to be a “climate action” year. In January in Davos, Willis Towers Watson launched
Climate QuantifiedTM, a new offering which combines the deep weather expertise, climate analytical experience from our (re)insurance and investment colleagues with leading-edge academic research via the Willis Research Network. Our long-standing focus on climate research differentiates between seasonal climate variability (see the European windstorm seasonal forecast review below) and longer term climate change trends and their impacts - more on this in the next newsletter.

Yet it will not detract our attention from other important research themes, featured in this newsletter: we reflect on a structured approach to the impact of pandemics against a background of “infodemic”; we also shine a light on the little-known risk of tailings dam failure.

And we continue to explore applications of research to specific industries: geopolitical risk scenarios for the renewable energy market and for the marine industry. Finally, we are delighted to coordinate a new project with our Airport Risk Community (ARC) and our long-standing partner, the Cambridge Centre for Risk Studies to identify, quantify and benchmark disruptive threats to airports across the globe. The results of this study will be shared at our 2020 Airport Conference in Budapest in September.

In light of the new Coronavirus outbreak, many companies, including Willis Towers Watson, have been cancelling travel and attendance of large events until further notice. Therefore we will postpone our planned series of seminars / webinars. Instead we will soon launch our Willis Research Network Digital Dialogues, a new guest blog series putting key questions to a panel of in-house experts and Willis Research Network partners.

As ever, we hope that you find something of interest in this newsletter, and feel free to get in touch if you are curious to know more.

Table of Contents

COVID19 – (Coronavirus) continues to show how pandemic risks are frontier less. Climate change, global travel patterns, technology advances, animal-borne diseases and the rise of multi-drug resistant organisms all contribute to the interconnectedness, frequency and scale of risks. The Willis Research Network outlines some of the direct and indirect connections that are starting to unfold from this outbreak, and how science can aid contingency planning, highlighting research by one of our partners, Cambridge Centre for Risk Studies at the Judge Business School.

The march is on to reflect more frequent, high intensity rainstorms in the flood risk models that insurers and infrastructure planners use. The combined effects of three back-to-back, named storms – Ciara, Dennis and Jorge – made last month the wettest February in the UK since records began in 1862. Nalan Cabi, Senior Lead Flood Specialist at Willis Re and WRN partner Professor Hayley Fowler, Newcastle University talk through the need to reflect more frequent, high intensity rainstorms in the flood risk models that insurers and infrastructure planners use.

Tailings have historically been used by mining companies to construct dams that support their operations. This makes them relatively cheap to build, but potentially inherently weak and susceptible to seepage. The latest Willis Research Network blog from our Earth hub supports thinking with our Natural Resources group to consider why most failures have occurred when facilities are active, and considers some of the implications for risk management.

Modern day pirates present a significant geopolitical risk to shipowners and the marine industry - as the 162 incidents recorded in 2019 attest. The latest Willis Research Network blog for the geopolitical risk initiative challenges thinking on the risks and opportunities associated with alternative futures for the design of autonomous ships, global supply chains, and the polar silk road.

Imagine the paralysis in major cities today if the internet was disabled. Refined Kitten and the growing number of other state-sponsored hackers pose that threat. Willis Research Network Partner, Elisabeth Braw who directs the Modern Deterrence project at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), talks through how companies, not just governments, have a role to play in increasing cybersecurity.

Renewable energy is not just at the behest of geopolitics, but is creating waves of its own. Three scenarios created by the Willis Research Network explore how new challenges and risks are emerging that, if not managed correctly, can threaten the very viability and long-term profitability of projects.

Elisabeth Braw of Willis Research Network partner, the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), directs its Modern Deterrence project focusing on how governments, business and civil society can work together to strengthen countries' defence against existing and emerging threats. Elisabeth discusses how the partnership works, how their research is applied to our industry, and anticipated areas of cutting-edge research in the next five to 10 years.

Contacts

Hélène Galy

Managing Director of Willis Research Network
Research Manager: People Risks