Argentina Economic Activity

Argentina: Economic activity decelerates in July

September 25, 2015

Economic activity in July increased 2.7% over the same month last year, which was a slight deterioration over the 2.8% increase seen in the previous month. June’s expansion in economic activity had marked the highest reading on record.

Compared to the previous month, economic activity in July rose 0.1% in seasonally-adjusted terms, which contrasted the 0.10% decrease seen in June.

As a result of the national statistical institute’s change to the base year of the index from 1993 to 2004 in March 2014, the new index brings the official estimates closer to the independent estimates that local private analysts produce, which have traditionally pointed to lower growth compared to official sources. However, there is still a discrepancy between official and non-official figures.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast panelists expect official GDP to increase 0.4% in 2015, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast. For 2016, participants expect official GDP to expand 1.6%. The panel sees non-official GDP contracting 0.3% in 2015; they expect it to rebound to a 0.8% expansion in 2016.