2012 is a year filled with potential yet still fraught with uncertainty — for the Colorado economy and local businesses. A tenuous economic recovery offers mixed signals of modest job growth, market volatility, a continued foreclosure epidemic and political gridlock that is likely to stymie meaningful progress on debt reduction.

Colorado’s outlook for 2012 is one of slow, but steady, improvement in employment and business growth. Mixed in will be exciting developments that we expect will cause readers to take special notice. From glitzy hotels and retail projects to the Colorado oil boom to the future of Frontier Airlines to the fate of the National Western Stock Show, a preview of the stories you’ll be seeing in 2012:

GAYLORD HOTEL

The Colorado Economic Development Commission is expected to decide in March whether to award Gaylord Entertainment $85.4 million in state subsidies under the Regional Tourism Act.

But with controversy swirling around the proposed hotel and five other projects vying for the incentives, the commission’s decision won’t be easy.

Since the announcement last year that Nashville-based Gaylord wants to build a 1,500-room hotel and conference center in Aurora, the project has come under fire over its potential impact on the downtown Denver hospitality industry.

Critics also decried a proposal to relocate the National Western Stock Show & Rodeo to a new complex adjacent to the Gaylord project.

Aurora and Denver had jointly applied for state sales-tax subsidies for the hotel and stock show complexes.

But in November, Denver withdrew its application for $6.1 million in subsidies, leaving the Gaylord project on its own.

Gaylord has said the stock show wasn’t necessary for the deal to work, but the RTA money is. The Gaylord project has already secured $300 million in incentives from Aurora.

NATIONAL WESTERN STOCK SHOW

In the coming months, the Denver Urban Renewal Authority will review and evaluate the business plan that the National Western Stock Show & Rodeo submitted to the city. The report, requested by Mayor Michael Hancock, lays out five options for the future of the facility on Brighton Boulevard just north of downtown.

The proposals range from making improvements to the existing stock show facility on Brighton Boulevard to relocating it to Commerce City or a site near the proposed Gaylord hotel and conference center near Denver International Airport, with costs ranging from $300 million to $550 million.

National Western officials have said it will be bankrupt within seven years if nothing is done to expand and improve the complex, whether it relocates or not.

National Western would bring about $80 million to the table through a $50 million fundraising campaign and $30 million in bonds issued against its projected operations, according to the report. The rest of the funding could come from a combination of the stadium district tax, general obligation bonds, tax-increment financing and public-improvement financing.

DENVER UNION STATION

Over the next 90 days, Regional Transportation District general manager Phil Washington will negotiate with the development team selected to transform Denver Union Station into a boutique hotel.

It’s also likely that the developer, Union Station Alliance, will begin talks with the Landmark Preservation Commission and State Historic Preservation Office to ensure the project complies with historic preservation standards and is eligible for the $7.5 million in historic tax credits it needs to help finance the project.

Union Station Alliance, led by well-known preservationist Dana Crawford and hotelier Walter Isenberg of Sage Hospitality, plans to redevelop the historic building with a 130-room hotel affiliated with the Oxford Hotel a block away. The station’s great hall will include restaurants and retail, as well as function as the region’s transit hub.

REGIONAL TOURISM

Tourism-stirring proposals from three Colorado cities and two counties will discover this year how they’ll fare in a competition for up to $50 million in annual tax-increment financing under the Regional Tourism Act.

While overshadowed by the high-profile proposed Gaylord resort complex in Aurora, the five other communities vying for tourism-related sales tax subsidies feel their plans are equally capable of luring out-of-state visitors.

Estes Park hopes to spend $50 million to rehab its venerable Elkhorn Lodge and develop a 50-acre year-round adventure park with ski trails, tubing runs and zip lines. The project could generate $62 million in state and local sales and lodging tax revenue over 30 years.

Glendale is proposing a sweeping mixed-use development with hotels, restaurants, retail, movies and a 4,000-seat amphitheater. The Glendale Riverwalk could generate $162 million in state and local tax revenue over 30 years.

Pueblo is seeking $33.1 million in state sales-tax rebates to help fund the city’s $114 million riverwalk, complete with a Professional Bull Riders University training center, a veterans memorial, water park, expanded convention center and a new hotel along the Arkansas River. The project could generate $118 million in local and state tax revenue over 30 years.

Douglas County’s proposed Colorado Sports and Prehistoric Park would combine an archaeological preserve with a sports complex. Over 30 years the project could generate $87 million in state sales tax revenue and another $90 million in county tax revenue.

Montrose County’s plan for 141 tourism and commercial projects is the largest proposal seeking Regional Tourism Act dollars. The county’s $1.4 billion Great Adventures Colorado plan would establish a 2,200-square-mile tourist destination and could generate $226 million in state sales tax revenue over 30 years.

REAL ESTATE

2012 will be the year of the landlord.

Apartment vacancies across much of the state reached a 10-year low in 2011 and rents moved higher, pointing to more favorable conditions for landlords. Permits for multifamily units also surged in November, which should translate into more apartment construction in the year ahead.

Although foreclosures fell sharply in Colorado last year, they are expected to increase again in early 2012 as lenders catch up on the backlog. That should result in more properties converting into rental homes next year.

ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT

On the heels of big wins such as Arrow Electronics’ corporate relocation and the new PrimeStar Solar plant in Aurora, two more large deals could be announced this year.

A dozen companies have applied for the state’s Job Growth Incentive Tax Credit, including two whose names haven’t been revealed. Those two firms have applied for credits representing 764 jobs. If those deals come through, they would continue the state’s winning streak into 2012.

OILColorado’s recent oil boom is poised for even more growth.

Exploration in 2011 determined that there are commercial oil reserves in the Niobrara formation beneath the Denver-Julesberg Basin north of Denver.

Noble Energy estimated that there is the equivalent of 600 million barrels of oil in the basin. Anadarko Petroleum Corp. put it as high as 1.5 billion barrels. Noble is planning to drill up to 120 wells in 2012 and Anadarko may drill 160.

The Niobrara stretches from El Paso County into southern Wyoming, and the big question for the coming year is, where else is there oil?

“We’ll have to see what exploration east and south of Denver yields,” said Pete Stark, vice president for industry relations at IHS, a Denver-based consulting firm. “If there are commercially exploitable reserves, there could be the equivalent of 2 billion barrels of oil in Colorado.”

FRONTIER AIRLINES

Home-grown Frontier Airlines recently wrestled the No. 2 position at Denver International Airport away from Southwest Airlines, but faces financial turbulence in the new year.

Frontier’s parent company, Republic Airways, has nearly completed a $120 million restructuring of the airline. The goal is for Frontier to be a separate entity by the end of June by attracting investors who want to put $150 million in new equity into Frontier.

Republic sought to spin off Frontier after Frontier lost $90 million in the first half of 2011. But some analysts question whether Frontier can attract an investor and whether it’s viable as a standalone airline.

SPACE EXPLORATION

NASA’s commercial crew development program has provided funding to several companies, including Sierra Nevada Space Systems of Louisville and United Launch Alliance of Centennial, to support work on low-Earth- orbit spacecraft and rockets.

The aim is to end U.S. reliance on Russia to transport astronauts between Earth and the international space station. Commercial endeavors have gained in importance as NASA battles tight budgets.

Sierra Nevada has received a total of $100 million to develop its space plane, Dream Chaser. ULA has received $6.7 million to create a launch-abort system so its Atlas V rocket can be certified to carry humans aloft.

RETAILBrick-and-mortar retailers continue to wage a battle over a perceived advantage that online merchants have in sales-tax collection.

Seattle-based Amazon, the largest online retailer, has long battled attempts by states to levy sales taxes on Internet transactions. Now it’s backing efforts to create a federal standard for states to collect sales tax on online purchases.

A Colorado law that would require online retailers to collect state sales tax was temporarily blocked by a judge.

Failure to collect the tax “effectively gives them a 7 (percent) to 8 percent price advantage over (local retailers) who employ Coloradans, donate to local charities and pay property taxes for local schools,” said Chris Howes, president of the Colorado Retail Council.

More in Business

Ford Motor Co. is going ahead with plans to move small-car production from the U.S. to Mexico despite President-elect Donald Trump’s recent threats to impose tariffs on companies that move work abroad.

Donald Trump’s administration, already seen as the wealthiest in modern history, is about to get even richer when Goldman Sachs Group Inc.’s Gary Cohn is named the president-elect’s chief economic policy adviser.

U.S. stocks rose for the sixth day in a row Friday as major indexes continued to set records. The biggest gains went to companies that have been mostly left out of the post-election rally, including health care companies and makers of household goods.