When news leaked on July 1 of Portland's plans to offer Roy Hibbert a maxed-out contract, it put the Indiana Pacers' new management team in a precarious position.

During this NBA moratorium period, teams are free to negotiate but deals cannot be consummated or discussed publicly, which fuels the 24-hour speculation cycle. Once the moratorium is lifted on July 11, assuming the Blazers do as planned, the Pacers will have until the 14th to either match the max or allow Hibbert to walk.

Welcome back, Donnie Walsh.

On the job less than two weeks since replacing Larry Bird, Walsh returns to the team presidency along with new general manager Kevin Pritchard, and must immediately confront a potentially franchise-shifting decision:

Whether the Pacers can afford to keep Hibbert more than they can afford to lose him.

From a basketball standpoint, the obvious choice would be to retain Hibbert.

He is relatively young, coming off his first All-Star appearance and still improving. He won't ever be a dominant low-post scorer but teams do have to respect him, which is half the battle. His biggest strides in 2011-12 were as a rim-protector and rebounder. He is the player around whom coach Frank Vogel built his "smashmouth basketball" identity for the team.

Hibbert also has all the intangibles any franchise would ask. He works tirelessly, is fully committed, has a positive personality and is well-liked both inside and outside the locker room. The most boisterous fans in Bankers Life Fieldhouse are those in "Area 55," the section Hibbert sponsors.

In a league with so few quality centers, Hibbert represents a significant advantage for the Pacers against most of the teams they face. While it is true the final four teams in the playoff bracket (Miami, Oklahoma City, Boston and San Antonio) lacked pure centers, all would jump at the chance to have a player like Hibbert in the middle.

An Indiana team that considers itself on the brink of joining those elite contenders can ill afford to lose a vital part of its nucleus.

When studied from a business standpoint, however, the decision becomes much less obvious.

Financially, Portland might actually have done the Pacers a favor. As the team holding Hibbert's restricted free agent rights, Indiana could have offered a maximum of five years and $79 million. If the Pacers choose to keep him, they need only match Portland's offer of four years and $58 million.

Even so, it represents a substantial investment for a franchise struggling for financial solvency.

Although max contracts are nowhere near the burden they were before the current Collective Bargaining Agreement tied them directly to the salary cap, they still are supposed to be reserved for elite players.

And then there is the not-so-small matter of the future. Maxing Hibbert would raise the financial bar for every other contract the Pacers negotiate.

Consider a year from now when David West is an unrestricted free agent; how can the Pacers make an argument West should make even a dollar less than Hibbert? How about in two years, when Paul George comes due? If the big contracts start piling up, they'll be right back where they were a few years ago, with an overstuffed payroll and an understaffed roster.

Make no mistake, this is not an easy decision. Strong arguments can be built for both sides.

The idea is to make a decision that favors neither basketball nor business, but benefits both.

Shade

07-05-2012, 07:00 PM

What the Pacers can't afford is to lose Hibbert. Unless they don't mind the Fieldhouse being empty again.

Cactus Jax

07-05-2012, 07:03 PM

So would the Pacers rather argue that they don't pay people market value to West and George? This article makes no sense.

This has been one of my arguments against the "no star" approach to team building. In theory you get a group of good players and keep them together hoping the whole becomes greater than the sum of the parts. In reality, guys want to get paid and you can't keep them together. You'll get stuck with mediocrity when the the whole starts to equal the sum because you no longer have the sacrifice and consistancey than made it "special".

littlerichard54

07-05-2012, 07:11 PM

Has the structure of the contract been released anywhere?

Mourning

07-05-2012, 07:13 PM

Match the contract.... if you dont like it in two years then trade him then and get some decent value back.... just letting him go for nothing is a massive loss.

joew8302

07-05-2012, 07:15 PM

Match the contract.... if you dont like it in two years then trade him then and get some decent value back.... just letting him go for nothing is a massive loss.

What makes you think if the Pacers match, and in two years don't like his production for the money some other team will and will be willing to give up a valuable piece?

docpaul

07-05-2012, 07:17 PM

Match the contract.... if you dont like it in two years then trade him then and get some decent value back.... just letting him go for nothing is a massive loss.

I think this is the most enlightened approach. It's not as if the cap circumstance is all that clogged up right now, and the valuation for Hibbert isn't massively out of whack, it's just high. There's a low likelihood that the contract turns into a Rashard Lewis or Elton Brand kind of debacle.

I'd personally like to see a 5 year deal for less $/year and a player option.

docpaul

07-05-2012, 07:18 PM

What makes you think if the Pacers match, and in two years don't like his production for the money some other team will and will be willing to give up a valuable piece?

I think he's making the point that, even though the value then might be dimes on the dollar... at least there are dimes to be had.

BlueNGold

07-05-2012, 07:20 PM

Imagine for a moment the Pacers with Lou Amundson as the starting C and Mike Plumlee backing him up.

BrownBearCoffee

07-05-2012, 07:22 PM

Mike.

:laugh:. Real mistake or statement?

BigAndy

07-05-2012, 07:26 PM

This has already been posted somewhere, but I don't really understand the salary cap and how much money we currently have on the books. If we DO resign Roy, how much money do we have left to spend on FAs and what level of player could we use that amount of money on?

docpaul

07-05-2012, 07:36 PM

This has already been posted somewhere, but I don't really understand the salary cap and how much money we currently have on the books. If we DO resign Roy, how much money do we have left to spend on FAs and what level of player could we use that amount of money on?

The salary cap is the amount a team can spend without having to use spending exceptions. The luxury tax line is the amount which teams have to start paying a tax back to the other teams below the tax line. The space in-between can be filled with spending, using exceptions.

Both Hill and Hibbert qualify for the "Bird exception", which allows a team to resign their own player and exceed the standard salary cap. So, if the moratorium were over, and we signed Hibbert and Hill right away, we would only have the MLE and veteran player exceptions available to us, because their salaries likely take us close to the spending cap.

http://pgb.me/pacercap

If on the other hand, we signed a player like Mayo first, and signed our own players following that, we'd have the room to sign them all, and we'd venture likely above the salary cap line when all is said and done.

The salary cap is going to be around $60m next year, and the lux tax line is around $72m.

Hope this helps.

wtelfair

07-05-2012, 07:39 PM

Match the contract.... if you dont like it in two years then trade him then and get some decent value back.... just letting him go for nothing is a massive loss.

On team in their right mind is going to pay 15 million or more Hibbert in two years. Once the Pacers get finish front loading that contract they will be stuck with him.

IndyHoya

07-05-2012, 07:47 PM

The salary cap is going to be around $60m next year, and the lux tax line is around $72m.

Hope this helps.

I'm with you on the salary cap being around $60M (I've heard as high as $62) but I haven't heard about the Luxury Tax going to $72M. Do you have a good source on the latter? Seems like not getting into LT territory is is the Pacers' biggest concern in the Roy drama.

travmil

07-05-2012, 07:51 PM

If the Pacers think they can't afford to keep him, they should wait and see what happens to that arena if they DON'T keep him...

idioteque

07-05-2012, 07:52 PM

The Pacers not keeping Hibbert could be the first in a series of steps that would put the ****ing team in Anaheim. Laugh at me for overreacting now, but its true. Lets utilize our home grown talent and not be the Kansas City Royals of the NBA, for Pete's sake.

IndyHoya

07-05-2012, 07:54 PM

The Pacers not keeping Hibbert could be the first in a series of steps that would put the ****ing team in Anaheim. Laugh at me for overreacting now, but its true. Lets utilize our home grown talent and not be the Kansas City Royals of the NBA, for Pete's sake.

Seattle's still looking for a team too. Sometimes, you don't know what you've got til it's gone.

Larry Staverman

07-05-2012, 07:58 PM

Consider a year from now when David West is an unrestricted free agent; how can the Pacers make an argument West should make even a dollar less than Hibbert? How about in two years, when Paul George comes due? If the big contracts start piling up, they'll be right back where they were a few years ago, with an overstuffed payroll and an understaffed roster.

West will be 33 when his contract is up next year. If he can find a team willing to pay him $58 million over 4 years I say good luck and thanks for your service. Unfortunately for West I think Billy King and the Nets will be capped out by then.

idioteque

07-05-2012, 08:01 PM

Consider a year from now when David West is an unrestricted free agent; how can the Pacers make an argument West should make even a dollar less than Hibbert? How about in two years, when Paul George comes due? If the big contracts start piling up, they'll be right back where they were a few years ago, with an overstuffed payroll and an understaffed roster.

West will be 33 when his contract is up next year. If he can find a team willing to pay him $58 million over 4 years I say good luck and thanks for your service. Unfortunately for West I think Billy King and the Nets will be capped out by then.

:laugh: No kidding, great post.

What a bad article by Conrad, love this gem: If the big contracts start piling up, they'll be right back where they were a few years ago, with an overstuffed payroll and an understaffed roster.

Yeah, because George/Granger/Hibbert/Hill=Murphleavy and Diogu. Great going there ex-lax.

BornReady#6

07-05-2012, 08:37 PM

The Pacers not keeping Hibbert could be the first in a series of steps that would put the ****ing team in Anaheim. Laugh at me for overreacting now, but its true. Lets utilize our home grown talent and not be the Kansas City Royals of the NBA, for Pete's sake. sl

I said this the night we drafted plumlee and everyone jumped on me. Sounds to me that stern may be in simmon's ear telling him the quickest way to turn a buck and get out of the hole is to relocate, so therefore the poisoning of our lowly pacers.

IndySDExport

07-05-2012, 08:48 PM

I can't help but think that if we let Hibbert walk, all the work LB put into rebuilding this team into a competitive, hungry, playoff team was for not.

I can't not imagine any scenario that has us letting Roy go and has us remaining as competitive as we were last year (this coming year or in years to come). It's not like there are plenty of young, quality, improving centers out there to fill his slot. I don't see kaman filling that roll successfully.

IndyHoya

07-05-2012, 08:50 PM

sl

I said this the night we drafted plumlee and everyone jumped on me. Sounds to me that stern may be in simmon's ear telling him the quickest way to turn a buck and get out of the hole is to relocate, so therefore the poisoning of our lowly pacers.

Herb Simon's traditionally not been stingy and given the Front Office a free hand in deciding whom or whom not to acquire. We're lucky to have him in that respect. But I doubt he likes all the empty seats over the past few years and I doubt too that he'll like having them empty indefinitely.

Hicks

07-05-2012, 10:20 PM

Imagine for a moment the Pacers with Lou Amundson as the starting C and Mike Plumlee backing him up.

Why? Lou's a free agent, too. Plumlee for 30 min, baby! ;)

Seriously, though I'm assuming it's going to be Kaman if not Roy.

Which is fine offensively. Defensively? Confidence in his health? Ehh.....