Phillies Should Trade For Peter Bourjos

The Phillies have a few glaring holes heading into the 2013 season, the most important of which is centerfield. After trading Shane Victorino this summer, the team permanently installed John Mayberry up the middle, and the experiment didn’t work out. Mayberry proved that he was a platoon player in a corner outfield spot, not a regular centerfielder. Unfortunately, he was the closest thing to a longer-term solution on the Phillies roster.

Juan Pierre and Laynce Nix could have faked it, but the former was only signed for one season and the latter is a pinch-hitter. Neither saw any time in centerfield and for good reason. Tyson Gillies just completed his first season at Double-A and is at least a year away from seeing the big leagues. The Phillies currently lack a solution. Fortunately, this year’s free agent class and trade market are flush with competent centerfielders.

It isn’t often that a position as important as centerfield sees so much turnover — teams usually tend to lock these players up before they hit the market — but the Phillies enter the offseason with selectivity at their disposal. There are a number of players they could acquire, but Peter Bourjos of the Angels makes too much sense to not seriously pursue. He would provide the team with elite defense and baserunning, offensive potential, cost-certainty and team-control, all of which are extremely important for a team in the Phillies position.

The centerfielders available via trade or free agency fall into five different groups:

Hamilton and Bourn will both sign big deals taking them into their mid-30s. The Phillies should steer clear of both players, as Hamilton won’t be able to play the position in two years, and I don’t consider Bourn worth the risk of spending $17 million per season for the next five seasons to hope he ages like Kenny Lofton.

Upton and Pagan are both solid players, and either would help the Phillies. If Amaro signed one of them to a reasonable three-year deal with a fourth-year option, that’s great. There isn’t really a wrong answer among Upton, Pagan, Victorino or Bourjos.

Dude makes this stuff look easy.

Bourjos combines some of the best attributes of everyone above. He makes less than everyone else and isn’t yet arbitration-eligible. He plays better defense than Bourn and runs the bases better than anyone not mentioned in this sentence. He hasn’t experienced any issues with his legs, his most valuable limbs. His offensive game is still raw and unproven, but consider that his numbers from 2010-12 — his entire career — aren’t far off Bourn’s and Pagan’s over the same span.

Bourjos has a 95 wRC+ from 2010-12 — the metric adjusted for park and league that sets the league average at 100. Over the same span, Bourn is at 99, and Pagan is at 105. There are differences here, but the offensive advantages these players have over Bourjos is nothing compared to his defensive advantage.

Yes, small sample size disclaimers still apply, as Bourjos has one full season and two partials under his belt, but raw UZR is a counting stat. We wouldn’t discount a player’s home runs total just because he didn’t qualify for the batting title, and while this situation isn’t entirely analogous, it bears acknowledging that Bourjos’s very high UZR in fewer innings than most others on the leaderboards is a positive, not something detracting from his value.

He has only played centerfield in his career and has a tidy +40 UZR in about 2,200 innings. That UZR ranks 2nd in all of baseball from 2010-12, among all positions, to Brett Gardner‘s +51 mark in left, and Gardner has played over 1,500 more innings. Under that contextual lens it’s easier to see the impressive nature of his fielding.

Bourn ranks 3rd on that list at +35 and he has played over 1,600 more innings at the position. On one hand, we are more confident in Bourn’s true talent fielding ability because of his playing time. On the other hand, it’s scary (in a good way) to think of what Bourjos’s UZR might look like had he been given the opportunity to play another 800-1,000 innings.

It stands to reason that Bourjos’s rate stats in the field would blow others out of the water, given his high counting stat in a smaller sample of playing time, and it’s true. Per UZR/150, which shows what a player’s fielding rating would look like over a full season, Bourjos has a +23.9 mark. That tops the leaderboard among all centerfielders with 2,000+ innings over the last few seasons. In fact, it’s not even close in this regard. Behind Bourjos is Jacoby Ellsbury at +13.8 and Carlos Gomez at +13.1.

Bourjos’s fielding mark isn’t entirely range, either, as +12 of his +40 UZR has come from his arm rating. The arm rating is based off of fielding aspects like throwing runners out via outfield assists, as well as how often runners advance. Taken together, he has some of the most range of any active centerfielder, and when balls do happen to fall in, runners don’t usually take any risks. So why would the Angels even want to trade such a valuable player?

For one, they currently employ arguably the best player in the sport in his position, and there is no way in hell the Angels are going to do anything with Mike Trout to accommodate Peter Bourjos. Second, moving Bourjos to a corner outfield position would hurt his value based on the relative values of the positions. He isn’t a slam-dunk, tremendous offensive player, and derives a lot of his value from playing centerfield so incredibly well.

Third, the Angels are likely to use Mark Trumbo in one corner next year, and they have interest in bringing Torii Hunter back to play the other spot. They could also continue to use Vernon Wells in the other corner. If everything works out, there literally isn’t a spot for Bourjos in the lineup. While he provides value as a reserve, he could bring back a decent haul that would benefit the Angels more than his sporadic playing time.

Who would the Phillies trade? It’s not going to be anything like the Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, Roy Oswalt or Hunter Pencedeals, but it’s not going to be inconsequential. It might take one of their two catchers, but then dealing one of them was always in the cards. One of Sebastian Valle and Tommy Joseph is more likely to benefit the Phillies as a trade chip than as a legitimate catching option. The Phillies are also flush with young arms, which could greatly aid an Angels organization that might not retain Zack Greinke, just traded Ervin Santana, and is likely to decline Dan Haren‘s option.

The Phillies don’t have an elite farm system but recent moves and the developments of previously unheralded players have gradually strengthened it. They have pieces to deal now and aren’t restricted to the free agent pool to make a move. And if said move involves bringing in a young, pre-arb/team-controlled player, it’s hard to argue with that move.

Mostly everything here has been positive, but we have to acknowledge negatives. Bourjos isn’t established as a solid hitter yet, and there is inherent risk that he never develops. In his lone full season, when he played regularly, he hit .271/.327/.438, with a good wOBA and a wRC+ 13 percent better than the league. In his two sandwiching partial seasons — 2010 and 2012 — he has hit considerably worse, with respective wRC+ marks of 65 and 72.

He provided plenty of value in both seasons, tallying 1.9 WAR each year in under 200 PAs, but he hit about as well as Mayberry did prior to August. The key here is not to trust any specific season more than another, but rather to evaluate Bourjos based on his career marks, and estimate his true talent level by regressing him to the mean.

Because 552 of his career 940 PAs came in his 2011 campaign, the stats are obviously skewed in that direction, but a conservative estimate of his true talent level would peg him about 7-9 percent below average as a hitter. While being below average as a hitter is obviously worse than being average or above, what is of more interest is his overall value. He can afford to be 7-9 percent below average at the plate because he more than makes up for it by creating runs on the bases and saving runs in the field. Evaluating certain components of a player’s game is important, but overall value matters far more.

The risk here is that his 2011 season was fluky and that he really is a poor hitter in the 70 wRC+ range. There is no concrete answer for that, which is unnerving. The Phillies outfield is a question mark on the whole, and adding another risky player to the mix might not be palatable. That is a perfectly reasonable viewpoint, and maybe in that context, Bourjos is better as a last resort plan if others like Upton or Pagan get big offers elsewhere. In other words, while his elite fielding, solid baserunning and offensive potential mean he could easily hit the 4 WAR mark over a full season, he might not be worth the risk given that, compounded with the other outfield risks on the roster, the situation could deteriorate quickly.

The Phillies have plenty of options at their disposal, and Jon Heyman has reported that they are considered frontrunners for B.J. Upton. If they opt to think a little differently, they could potentially fill the position for years to come with a cheap and very effective, very productive, under-the-radar player that plays the position better than just about everyone else. Again, there is no wrong answer to the centerfield issue as long as they don’t go crazy breaking the bank for Hamilton or Bourn. I would be perfectly happy with Upton or Pagan or Victorino as well. Bourjos represents an interesting alternative to those oft-discussed options, however, that could help the Phillies for years to come while allowing them to allocate funds elsewhere.

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43 Comments

MplsPhilsFan

November 2, 2012 at 2:00 pm

Eric,

I have my doubts about Peter Bourjos as an everyday player. If he was going to produce at the same level as 2011, or even at the 7-9% below average figuer you cited, then yes I would absolutely make a deal for him. Unfortunately, i think it is too much of a risk, as his value in both 2010 and 2012 was derived solely from his defense. To me, he looks like an outfield version of Feddy Galvis.

When I was examining his data on Baseball-Reference, I was surprised by how little he added on the basepaths. Only 3 SB last year, and even in 2011 he was caught 9 times. Since Bourjos would probably cost one of the catching prospects and one of the top pitching prospects (Petitbone, perhaps or May), I do not think it would be worth it.

Instead, I think a better course of action would be for the Phils to sign BJ Upton to a 4-5 year deal, with an average annual value in the $12-13 million range, and contact the Diamondbacks about his brother Justin. Offering Dom Brown, Sebastian Valle, Trevor May and Freddy Galvis might be enough to interest them. Following this path would fix both the CF and RF positions for the next several years.

That’s definitely a very interesting solution, and as I’ll be writing tomorrow, the Phils are supposed frontrunners for Upton. There is more to baserunning than SB, and Bourjos is one of the best at taking the extra base. I would look more at the BsR number on Fangraphs than just raw SB and SBA. He is definitely risky as an everyday player, but I don’t think it would cost, literally, an arm and a leg, in say Pettibone and Joseph. I get the sense that Bourjos is the type of guy that would cost one legit guy you would be hesitant to lose, and a throw-in type. The risk is there — after analyzing everything I’m just comfortable taking it.

First, thank you for your response to my post. What I generally do when examining a player is to a weighted average between FanGraphs and Baseball Reference, since the two sites measure some variables (defense and base running most notably) at different rates.

Using both methodologies, almost all of the value from Bourjos comes from his fielding, with only a small amount coming from his baserunning. He does have a positive influence on the game, but that effect is offset partially by his low SB % which has hovered around 7-75% each of his years in the majors.

Although I do not think it would sufficient to obtain Bourjos, I would certainly give up Tommy Joseph or Sebastian Valle as the centerpiece in a deal to get him. If it took more than that, say including Petitbone or May, then I think the cost would be too high.

bcardipr, you ask why the Phillies would trade catching prospects? Because they have 3 of them. One of either Valle or Joseph will most likely be traded this offseason to address deficiencies in other areas, and some scouts are amazed by Gabriel Lino (obtained in the Thome trade) and his potential

I think the key here, as I mentioned, is that there really is no wrong answer. There are so many viable solutions that when I say they should trade for Bourjos, it’s not like I’m saying he is absolutely the right candidate as opposed to Upton or Pagan. If Amaro signs Upton tonight to a 4 yr/52 mil deal, I’d be perfectly fine with that. If Pagan can be signed at 3/$33, that’s fine too. I like Bourjos for the reasons expounded on above, but the risk is definitely there, and with someone like Upton or Pagan, you have a better idea of what you’re getting. I’m just bullish on Bourjos and am intrigued by the idea of getting him and using the money you would have spent on CF on other areas.

You make lots of good arguments FOR Boujos although I share others concerns about whether he can continue at that rate. However, I don’t see why the Angels would trade a MLB player that has produced, is under their control, etc for a prospect. Please put yourself in the Angels position and tell me what you really want because I am pretty sure you don’t get this guy at a discount and I just don’t see that the Phils have anything that would move me if I was the Angels GM.

Right, they would have to be moved to make a deal, however the Phillies have some very interesting pieces that could interest them. The Angels have Iannetta now, but lack a clear catching solution in their system. One of Valle or Joseph (or even Lino) could interest them. They don’t have the young arms in the system they used to have. Trevor May or Pettibone could interest them. It’s tough to get a read on Jerry DiPoto in the early going. He seems like a sharp guy, and could hold onto Bourjos until he gets exactly what he wants. Moves the Phils have made over the last year have put them in a position to offer teams some very interesting players or combos of players for pieces they need. If you don’t feel the Phils have anything, I’m not going to force my opinion down your throat. My years of doing this and analyzing these types of things give me the spidey-sense tingle that it could work, and that he could be had for Joseph and the arm of someone slightly lower on the depth charts than May/Pettibone.

And now Haren is a free agent as they decline his option.. Weird turn of events in Los Angeles tonight.

In the last few days they just lost 60 starts, or 40% of their rotation? Not that Ervin Santana is any good but still, the hot stove is off to an interesting start. They’d better hope that Greinke wants to resign with them.

Given the Phils’ current outfield (do they even have ONE player capable enough to go everyday?) they should hesitate to take a risk on another guy who might not cut it as a regular. If all the others CFs available sign elsewhere, or cost too much in a trade, or if Amaro can find a corner guy guaranteed to hit both lefties and righties with some authority, then maybe the risk would be worthwhile.

The Phillies don’t have enough to get Justin Upton. Arizona wants at least one major league ready player in return – an actual blue chipper, not just a package of prospects. Galvis and Brown don’t count as major league ready players in my book – I doubt that they would for Kevin Towers either.

Talking about acquiring players like Bourjos is to me small-market thinking. The Phillies have enough fourth outfielders, and are offensively challenged as it is without bringing Bourjos’ five-cent bat into the mix.I’d rather take a chance on Upton. He’s a righthanded power hitter who could protect Howard in the lineup, and boasts speed and defense as well. He could also play second and third in a pinch. His attitude has been a problem in Tampa, but maybe playing in front of more than a handful of fans every nikght (and a reunion with Steve Henderson) might be just what he needs. If the Angels want to trade Bourjos let him follow Earvin Santana to a second tier Siberia like Kansas City, not one of the game’s elite franchises.

It’s a shame the Royals just released Jason Bourgeous, because if the Angels dealt Peter to Kansas City they could have had Bourjos and Bourgeous.

Upton is the most likely CF the Phils sign, and as I’ll cover tomorrow, he’s the best fit if they decide to spend $10+ mil per year on a long-term deal. I also don’t think his attitude would be a problem on a team with Doc, Lee, Howard, Utley, Rollins, etc.

FYI all, the 3rd Catching prospect in the Phils system is Cameron Rupp. Lino is 4th. Rupp blew up this year, and given his age and college experience at Texas may slide past Valle to reach the bigs first.

The Angels are pretty deep at C and really like their top prospect Hank Conger, who is ready. He just needs to stay healthy and hit.

A reasonable trade for Bourjous might be more like Gilles, Schwimmer, and Nix (or Mayberry). This gives the Halos a RH middle reliever and a versatile 4th OF for the big club, and a prospect to replace (eventually) Hunter and/or Wells.

I like the idea if you can get Upton that is the direction I would go and maybe still trade for Bourjos on the cheap maybe including Mayberry or Scherholtz in on of the deals. I also see Joesph or Valle gone this Winter mostly because I think they are going with Kratz as the back up in 2013 with the ability to play everyday if needed due to injury to Chooch. I can not see the Phillies make a risky move for a possible marginal bat as there big deal this winter. But do not be surprised if Vic comes back on 2 or 3 year under 10 mil a year contract

Kratz is just a backup i know he thrilled a bunch of you but then he started coming back down to earth. Ruiz is aging i would keep at least one or 2 of my best catching prospects. As well if one of these two get injured we dont have to count on the likes of Lerud or other 3rd tier catchers.

I like Peter Bourjos. He is a world-class fielder and base runner. And I believe at age 25 he is on the upswing in his career. And, if we could swing a seperate deal for JUSTIN Upton, then I would be one happy old fart.

I’m a big believer in the power of a strong up the middle defense, particularly when a team has assembled a powerful stable of starting pitching as it’s base. I believe Peter Bourjos is the perfect target for all the reasons I mentioned last week, along with the compelling arguments in Eric’s posting today.

Bourjos has a cheap salary and many years of team control which are solid attributes. I agree the team needs a stellar defensive CF to complement the pitching. If they trde for Bourjas they need to go all in for a RF like Upton as mentioned. Could the Phils create a package good enough to obtain him without decemating the system?

Go back to the 2009 offseason and Halladay/Cliff Lee mess. Amaro didn’t keep Lee because the farm system supposedly WAS decimated and had to be rebuilt.

I think he’s forgotten himself some since then, but has now regained his memory. I don’t think he’ll be trading off so many good prospects from here on out, what with a core of expensive players past their primes.

He can trade all the middle of the road farmboys he wants, because those types are interchangable. Unfortunately, they won’t bring back a Justin Upton or any other overvalued talent.

I was always under the impression that it was a salary move, aided by the assumption that Halladay would more than replace Lee’s contributions and that Lee was entering his walk year and that they didn’t want to risk losing him for nothing.

That’s just my opinion, but the timing of the trade (the exact same day as the Halladay deal) makes it extremely suspect. I’d think he could have done better by waiting out the market or even waiting until the trade deadline if he really wanted to maximize the return in terms of prospects.

Eric, please not the word “supposedly” in my above comment. It was the story given out, but no one outside of Phils management knows for sure. This I will say, however: Amaro DID give up quite a few prospects to get Halladay (and earlier to get Lee) so it’s quite possible that the cupboard was bare. The other trade option, who would have saved them almost as much salary as Lee, was Joe Blanton. He wasn’t going to gain the farm anything but crap.

Great idea. I think that Bourjous is an intriguing player to look into. I had never considered the notion that he was a player the Phillies might target. I have to presume that weakness at third base will leave them standing in a deep crop of free agent outfielders. Because why spend more money on another over the hill bat at the hot corner? I would rather the Phillies look for a bargain at 3B — a lack of talent isn’t worth the cost of acquiring noticeably limited potential.

The outfield will come first priority. It’s the most glaring hole on the team. Since this is also a deep class, the Phillies have more room to both within their spending limitations and with certain specific deals. They are certainly not ready to overpay for yet another player.

Price aside, the team needs another top tier talent. We need someone who can hit lefties. Now, whether that comes from a switch hitter or a right handed batter, it doesn’t matter to me. People say what they want to say about the decline of certain players’ careers, but it’s all speculation. Bounce-back years and failed patterns are all we need to see just to argue question. Yes it’s possible for Bourn’s speed will take the fall at some point, which it will, but he was a demon in centerfield last season. He will demand the most money.

Upton has a nice upside. He didn’t get on base as much this past season as in other years, but his talent is undeniable. In some ways, he is a both an asset and someone whose play is characterized by streaks and strikeouts. Cabrera is an interesting situation. He will be cheaper, but he plays a corner outfield position — where I see Ruben looking towards more power and patience. That leads me to Swisher. Swisher won’t get the kind of money that Bourn will, but he will get a fine payday. I love Swisher. Sure, he slumps, but he is always in the game. He gets on base. He scores runs. He hits for CBP power. He’s a switch hitter. He’s a character.

Pagan is a nice candidate for center field, if he chooses to look beyond San Fran. I like that the whole country likes his play. He’s played well for the Mets before, so, the Phillies have seen him plenty before. And it shows that he can carry his professionalism and skills through different cities and different gigs, he’s a good clubhouse guy.

Victorino… It could be another run in with the Flyin’ Hawaiin. One down year doesn’t say a lot to me. Comin’ back home is always a nice story, but, again, it’s all speculation.

Obviously, third base and late relief are concerns of the Phillies. Third base is a wait-and-see situation, I’d imagine. If, at the last bend too, a trade is always possible, but that is another direction anyways. I wouldn’t like to see Youkilis on the Phils. As far as a relief ace, the team certainly needs one. Back in the day, it would have been Ryan Madson. Now, Madson is a free agent again. Another story of reuniting is on the table here. We need a class A set-up man, somebody who can be a stopper, somebody who could be a health based handcuff for Papelbon, and somebody who can get a small share of saves. I would love Madson back on the team. However, we all know he wants to close out games. And the Tigers, Angels, Reds, Red Sox, Brewers and Dodgers will all be calling. But, one season off, that might affect things a little. I think he should go for it. Top 5 in relief appearances in Phillies history, that man can do whatever the heck he wants.

So, finally, I was wondering if anybody on the site was interested by names like Mike Adams, Jason Grilli, and Koji Uehara?

Just FYI, Cabrera played 144 games in centerfield for the Royals in 2011. He can still play CF.

Also, if we’re talking about the whole free agent crop, Hamilton is going to get more than Bourn. If just the guys you listed, Bourn might be at the top, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see Upton, who is younger and has more power, to be right there with him.

I like the idea of trading for Bourjos (as long as they don’t give up too much), but I expect the Angels to keep Bourjos and start him against RHP’s, especially if they re-sign Greinke and let Torii walk. I think they’ll end up with Trout and Trumbo as every day OF’s with Bourjos and Vernon Wells platooning. When Bourjos starts, he’ll play CF. When Wells starts, Trout will play CF.

I also like the idea of trading for Denard Span; however, because of his age, I would not give up as much for Span as I would for Bourjos if he’s available. With Minnesota being so desperate for pitching, might they take Kendrick for Span?

There was about a 15 minute period last night after the Haren/Marmol deal blew up when I thought that RAJ might swoop in and deal Worley straight up for bourjos and Haren.

I like the bourjos idea a lot personally. That said, I’m not sure I like dealing a catcher for him. Joseph/Valle/rupp are more valuable in deals for potential 3B options for me, and I think you can accomplish a bourjos deal just as easily by sending a RP and a lesser prospect. We’ve got 9 young gun relievers gunning for 4 or 5 spots provided we don’t sign a set up guy.

For everything we say about the system, there are some really interesting ML expwrienced/ready chips in the OF an RP spots.