For years, analysts have awaited the passing of Fidel Castro as the watershed moment that would launch a new era in U.S.-Cuban trade relations and open the island to investors.

So it’s ironic that, now that Fidel has died, the man who really counts is the incoming leader of Castro’s geopolitical archrival: Donald Trump.

On the surface, it seems like Trump will be terrible for U.S.-Cuban economic relations — and the U.S. hotel, cruise-line and banking companies that want to continue along the inroads opened up by the thawing of relations under President Barack Obama.

After all, Trump and Vice President–elect Mike Pence campaigned hard in Florida against reform in U.S.-Cuban relations — unless there are further concessions from Cuba on political and religious freedoms in the country.

“All of the concessions Barack Obama has granted the Castro regime were done through executive order, which means the next president can reverse them, and that I will do unless the Castro regime meets our demands,” Trump said at a Florida campaign event in September.

Plus conservative elected officials from Florida, such as Marco Rubio, have long opposed a thawing of relations. Now emboldened by the Republican sweep in the November elections, they will no doubt ramp up pressure to reverse changes put in place by Obama, according to Cuba experts.

“I would think the pressure from the Republicans to roll back many of the executive orders that Obama put into place will be very strong,” said Riordan Roett, director of the Latin American Studies Program at Johns Hopkins University’s School of Advanced International Studies.

But a closer look shows that Trump might not be so bad for U.S.-Cuban relations for four reasons:

First, it’s not really even clear what Trump’s policy on Cuba is. “If you know, I wish you would tell me,” said Roett.

A big part of the confusion comes from the fact that Trump has developed a habit of backing away from many of his promises —- from the complete repeal of Obamacare and the prosecution of Hillary Clinton to the wall with Mexico and his hard-line policy of rounding up all illegal immigrants. His tough policy on Cuba could be another campaign promise that easily falls away.

Fidel Castro, former Cuban strongman, dies

(3:29)

Fidel Castro has died at the age of 90. The Cuban leader animated millions with his promises of democracy, social justice and economic progress. But by the time he resigned in 2008 as Cuba’s president, he had come to embody all the contradictions of his movement. Photo: AP

Next, polls show that the majority of Cuban-Americans now support a normalization of relations with Cuba, as Andrew Otazo, executive director of the Cuba Study Group, has pointed out. This undermines pressure from Florida politicians for a rollback of Obama reforms — like Obama’s easing of restrictions on travel and remittances to Cuba. “There has been a big historical shift in opinion,” said Otazo.

And at this point it could also be tough for Trump to take away licenses to do business in Cuba granted to airlines like Southwest Airlines
LUV, +0.38%
, JetBlue Airways
JBLU, +0.32%
, American Airlines
AAL, +3.31%
and United Continental Holdings
UAL, +3.34%
; cruise lines like Carnival
CCL, +0.79%
; and hotel chains like Marriott International
MAR, +0.07%
“This is hazy legal territory because these companies started operations in Cuba in good faith. So they could take legal action if license are revoked,” said Otazo.

Besides, it’s not even clear that Trump, a businessman at heart, would want to shut down opportunities to do business with Cuba. As a private real-estate operator, he’s explored doing business in Cuba in the past. “Mr. Trump may not deny his supporters the opportunity to make money, and that may color the form of engagement going forward,” said Larry Catá Backer, a professor of law and international affairs at Pennsylvania State University.

What about Cuba?

With Fidel gone, is the country now on a faster track toward capitalism that could improve investment opportunities? Well, yes and no.

Certainly, it’s economy could use a boost. Following a growth spurt in 2015, when GDP advanced by 4.3%, the Cuban economy has cooled off. The economy of a key geopolitical ally, Venezuela, is in disarray. That country has reduced its subsidized exports of oil to Cuba.

Now, the passing of Fidel could theoretically speed up reform, even if Fidel has had little direct involvement in policy decisions since turning power over to his brother, Raúl Castro.

“The weight of Fidel Castro, whether he was directly involved in the government or not, certainly played a role in the pace of reforms,” said Tomas Bilbao, a Cuba policy expert, “so his passing should offer an opportunity for reformers in the government to accelerate the pace of reforms.” Bilbao, who runs a consulting firm called Avila Strategies, advises clients on how to protect their brand reputations during entry into controversial markets, like Cuba.

That said, in the near term, hard liners inside the government could put a lid on change in the interest of maintaining stability in the country following the death of Castro, said Bilbao. Besides, even with Fidel gone, the old bureaucracy will be in place — and it will remain resistant to change. “The decision makers come from the revolutionary generation, and they believe in the revolution and socialist model put in place by Castro,” said Roett.

The bottom line

So what’s the key take-away here for investors? Most likely, a thawing in U.S. relations with Cuba will continue, and gradual progress toward a market economy inside Cuba will proceed as well. So it makes sense for investors to have exposure to the country.

But I’d only do so with companies that look interesting for other reasons, like solid insider buying, positive business trends — or as contrarian plays because they have sold off so hard.

Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings
NCLH, +1.09%
and Royal Caribbean both saw significant insider buying in August and September. The buying happened below where these stocks currently trade. But insiders rarely buy for short-term moves, so there are probably more gains ahead.

Norwegian, for example, has a younger fleet than its competitors, which means its ships are more attractive and more cost-efficient.

Plus the three big cruise companies (these two and Carnival) benefit because they are part of an oligopoly. They control about 90% of the market. They seem to be in a friendly standoff on pricing. And this oligopoly, plus the high cost of building ships, probably provides these three with decent protection against competitors coming into the space.

Cruise lines are also a play on two mega trends. They are boomer plays. As boomers retire they have more leisure time so they will take more cruises. They are also plays on the emerging middle class in China and elsewhere in Asia. As people earn more in these countries, they will spend more on cruises, too.

Consumer companies

Consumer-goods companies and retailers like Coca-Cola
KO, +2.49%
and Wal-Mart
WMT, -0.37%
would love to have a big presence in Cuba. Both brands are well positioned to get there with companies in Mexico that can easily make the leap — Mexico-based Walmex
WMMVY, +2.65%
and Coca-Cola Femsa
KOF, +3.37%
. Companies based in Mexico may have an easier time getting into Cuba because of familiarity with the language and culture.

Banks

U.S. banks would also love to get into Cuba. They still face regulatory hurdles. But one is already making inroads. Stonegate Bank
SGBK, +0.48%
, based in Pompano Beach, Fla., began offering MasterCards that can be used in Cuba last June.

But that’s not the only positive thing going on at this bank. Like banks overall, Stonegate should benefit if long-term interest rise in an improving economy under Trump. Rising long-term rates help improve bank profits by boosting their net interest margins. That’s the difference between what they pay for deposits which are priced at the short end of the yield curve, and what they earn on loans which are priced at the long-end of the yield curve. Banks have advance sharply since Trumps victory, as investors expect this dynamic to play out. But Stonegate insiders were recently buying a little stock in the low $38 despite the advance. That’s a signal the advance may stick. Stonegate also has been expanding in Florida via acquisition. Most recently it announced an agreement to buy Sarasota-based Insignia Bank.

Michael
Brush

Michael Brush is a Manhattan-based financial writer who publishes the stock newsletter Brush Up on Stocks. Brush has covered business for the New York Times and The Economist group. He attended Columbia Business School in the Knight-Bagehot program.

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Michael
Brush

Michael Brush is a Manhattan-based financial writer who publishes the stock newsletter Brush Up on Stocks. Brush has covered business for the New York Times and The Economist group. He attended Columbia Business School in the Knight-Bagehot program.

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