Iain Macwhirter: MPs should come back from their constituencies and prepare for coalition

Iain Macwhirter: MPs should come back from their constituencies and prepare for coalition

NEW Year. Now is the time when those stupid enough to do so, make their predictions for the coming year. Will Donald Trump be impeached? Will Russia invade Ukraine? Will there be a global economic recession? The answers to all of these is, I suspect, no. About the only thing we can say with reasonable certainty is that there will be another royal baby in 2019.

But this New Year there's only one forecast that really matters: what will happen with Brexit? As in a war, Brexit will crowd everything off the political agenda in 2019. Like the Ides of March, Britain's fate must be sealed on Brexit day in only 13 weeks time.

Will May finally win parliamentary support for her Withdrawal Deal? Will she be ousted in a cabinet coup? Will there be a repeat referendum? Will Britain end up revoking Article 50? These are the options, broadly speaking. About the only thing that seems pretty certain to me is that there will be no General Election and no “No Deal” Brexit. I simply cannot see parliament or the country accepting the chaos, cost and potential suffering of crashing out of the European Union without any negotiated settlement.

True, planes wouldn't fall out of the skies and trade would continue, somehow, but the disruption would create enormous stress. There is a strong possibility of food shortages, and people with medical conditions would suffer needless anxiety over medicine supplies. The fact that the Government is preparing to put the army on the streets and ports testifies to the risk of civil disturbance. There would be a hard border in Northern Ireland overnight and a resumption of sectarian tensions. Small firms would go bust and big firms would leave.

So, I am confident that MPs and ministers will prevent this happening, if necessary by removing Theresa May and forming the equivalent of a wartime coalition. Working back from that the most probable outcomes look like: Revoking Article 50 or May's Withdrawal Deal. And, it will be Labour, not Theresa May, the Tory Brexiters or the DUP, who decides which.

We begin both scenarios with Theresa May losing her “meaningful vote” in the week beginning January 14. May postponed the Commons vote on her Withdrawal Deal on 10th December – but she was only delaying the inevitable defeat. Her pre-Christmas negotiations with Brussels produced nothing of substance, merely a reaffirmation from the 27 that any Irish backstop would be temporary.

Brexiters hate the Withdrawal Deal, which they think chains Britain to the EU, and Jeremy Corbyn does too – and for rather similar reasons. He thinks the state aid rules would prevent a Labour government nationalising the utility companies, and also believes that a permanent backstop would give Britain “no say” on any future trade deals. May's Withdrawal Deal should therefore be defeated by around 50-100 votes.

Corbyn will then finally table that motion of no confidence in the government which he delayed in December. May will assuredly win that vote, because the last thing Tory MPs and the DUP want is general election, a Corbyn government and an even worse deal. May will now have won confidence votes from her own MPs and from the House of Commons. That will make her immovable – at least for the time being.

Armed with this she will return to Brussels and stage another televised spat with Jean-Claude Juncker. The 27 will probably have something else up their sleeves (they want Britain out as much as May does). Perhaps Michel Barnier will propose amending the Political Declaration to include a 12-month limit to the Irish backstop. This was dropped from the final draft of the December communique.

The 27 could also extend the transition period making a commitment that negotiations must be concluded by March 2022. This is already in the Political Declaration, but it could be built into a firm commitment and subject to independent arbitration. The Irish backstop would thus become a last resort and triggered only in the event of a total breakdown of time-limited trade negotiations.

This will be the moment of truth for Labour, as Theresa May brings her amended deal back to the Commons in February. The hardline Brexiteers and the DUP will not be persuaded because the legally-binding Irish backstop will still be there in the Withdrawal Agreement. The future will be in Labour’s hands. Many pro-Europeans tell me that Corbyn will at this point “pivot” to a referendum, voting down the Withdrawal Deal a second time, and backing a cross-party amendment for a Peoples Vote.

But while he doesn't accept May's Withdrawal Deal, still less Norway Plus, nor does Corbyn favour remaining in the European Union. Before Christmas, he caused widespread dismay among pro-Europeans by confirming that, even if he were to win a general election, Labour would still be committed to Britain’s departure from the European Union.

The Labour leader's instinct will surely be to secure concessions from Theresa May on the future trade negotiations. A closer alignment with the single market and a permanent customs deal, is what he wants. To get her business through, she would surely end up agreeing. Deal done. Britain leaves as planned. Pro-European Labour MPs would rebel, but that would be unlikely to scupper the government's pro-Withdrawal majority.

Alternatively, if Jeremy Corbyn stands firm and pivots to a referendum, there will be unprecedented turmoil in parliament, not least over what the question should be. Theresa May will stand down and there will be a political vacuum. As the clock ticks down to Brexit day, a new parliamentary party could emerge: the Europe Party, uniting all the pro-Remain MPs, and dedicated to a second referendum. The choice for voters would be Revoking Article 50 or No Deal. May’s deal, it seems to me, would be a dead duck by this stage.

By Revoking Article 50 Britain would retain its opt-outs from the euro and its budget rebate and there would be no disruption of trade. It would be as if Brexit never happened. Brussels would happily delay Article 50 for a referendum. However, this referendum would be like an offer voters can’t refuse, because MPs in the “Remaniac Coalition” (as they’d be called in the press) would have to resign en masse if the country opted for No Deal.

It would be terrible campaign, exactly three years after the original referendum, with the far right raging about immigration. It would take years, decades for the bad will to subside. But faced with the prospect of a chaotic No Deal (and no stable government to implement it) I suspect voters would back Revoke. There is nothing undemocratic in having a final say. Parliament has failed to find a credible formula for leaving the EU. The only way end this agony and confusion is for Britain to accept that Brexit is just too costly, too difficult, too unpredictable and too all-consuming. The message would be: For God's sake, let's just stop this madness and get our lives back.

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