Rosenthal’s Full Count: Managerial Searches

Ken Rosenthal at FOX Sports has his newest Full Count Video up, focusing this week on managerial searches around the Majors. Let's dive in:

The Braves may pursue their top candidate — believed to be recently fired Marlins skipper Fredi Gonzalez — prior to the end of Bobby Cox's tenure. If the Braves make a deep playoff run, they may look to lock down Gonzalez before other teams, such as the Cubs, can get their hands on him.

The Marlins want their next manager to have a "more dynamic personality" than Gonzalez. Rosenthal names Bobby Valentine, who says he doesn't know what happened previously with Florida or what will happen in the future, Jim Fregosi, Wally Backman, and Larry Bowa as candidates.

Mets general manager Omar Minaya is telling friends that he knows his time is running out. The Mets are likely to move Minaya to a scouting role and promote assistant GM John Ricco. However, if they go outside the organization, some names to remember are former Rangers and Indians GM John Hart, and Dan Jennings, a longstanding Marlins executive.

There have been rumblings of Hart taking over the job in Baltimore as well, but there's no indication that Andy MacPhail is on his way out.

Rosenthal quotes an MLB executive as saying Mariners GM Jack Zduriencik is "under siege" in Seattle, given that a Seattle Times report this week claimed Zduriencik knew more about Josh Lueke's criminal record than he let on before they acquired him in the trade for Cliff Lee. Rosenthal says that it's unlikely the Mariners act so quickly in dismissing Zduriencik, but if they were to do so, that Jennings, a former Mariners scout, and former Padres GM Kevin Towers could be fits.

Comments

Man you said it…this meathead was supposed to be the greatest general manager in the game at the start of the season. Supposed to contend? All he really did was lead a team into the toilet. Don’t even try to tell me how he made good trades either in the 3 way Halladay deal or the selling of Lee. Any GM could have got a good haul for Cliff Lee. Hey how’s the Morrow/League trade worked out? What a joke he has been.

The joke here is your heavy-handed response. 2009 was fortunate as far as wins go, but 2010 reflects much better the state of the organization left behind by Bavasi. Jack Z has done exceptionally well with what he was given when he took over and has the team headed in the right direction.

The only things Jack Z really did wrong was, arguably, the Morrow trade and the Fields signing.

Figgy had a down year, but has plenty of time to recover.
Bradley and Kotchman were budget-restrained moves.
Lopez had a horrible year.
Jack Wilson was hurt. What other SS was available?
The team has no catcher to speak of.

The Gutierrez and Lee/Smoak trades were masterful.
Washburn brought back some nice pieces in Robles and French.
Aardsma for Williamson was significantly one-sided.
Two strong drafts.

The only question about Jack Z’s performance appears to be his character. He puts the team’s success first, perhaps even ahead of his moral convictions.

No, Seattle’s upper management is just a bunch of morons. If they fire Z, i seriously will boycott the M’s. Armstrong and Lincoln kept Bavasi for years before replacing him and he did far more damage to the organization than anyone else ever has. If Lincoln and Armstrong get rid of Z, I will not go back until they are gone.

PoorMs said it best. Every player that Zduriencik has brought in has a track record of success. Every player has has busted in 2010. That isn’t Zduriencik’s fault.

To fire Zduriencik is basically saying, “We know he’s good, but we like character over baseball talent.” And that’s a mistake. Zduriencik isn’t moving. If he does, the Mariners are in worse hands than Zduriencik’s.

It’s not his fault he started Jose Lopez, Casey Kotchman, and Ken Griffey Jr in the same lineup….lol. Throw in the nut case Bradley too, and it was fools gold to believe Bedard would actually pitch this year.
I won’t blame him for Figgins, but he still signed him coming off a career year, he wasn’t going to repeat that.

Point is, people saw this team as a failure waiting to happen- except if you said anything you get labeled as being anti-sabr, which isnt true.

Figgins2002-2008: .290/.356/.387 , 50 SB per 162 and 17 CS per 162.2009: .298/.395/.393 42 SB, 17 CS2010: .245/.333/.2882010 is definitely Figgins’ worst year to date, and 2009 is definitely best. 2009 was close enough to his career numbers, there was no way to expect this seasons results.

Figgins has lost a whole lot more than 40 points in OBP though. Like you said, no way you can blame Zduriencik for his slump.

What you CAN blame Jack Z for is agreeing with the decision to move him to 2B in order to accommodate Lopez’s awful defense, because he realistically should’ve been traded or released prior to this season. His plummet into the abyss wasn’t that hard to predict.

Griffey was signed because of his name, not because of his talent, that’s another strike. He never should’ve been relied on for offensive production.

Overall, I liked Zduriencik’s moves, aside from Morrow and Griffey. I thought they were getting the better end of the Silva/Bradley swap, and that the defense and a 1-2 combo of Felix/Lee would carry the team.

However, setting up a team that you KNOW is an offensive liability when there were cheap options on the market (Thome, Cust, Branyan, Hudson, LaRoche, Kelly Johnson, Uribe) is something that can be pinned onto the GM.

I liked his moves, but felt there was more he could’ve done in the way of insurance policies for the club’s offense, and more he could’ve done with the rotation than relying on Snell, Rowland-Smith, and the like to fill out the back-end.

I think Jack Z is a good GM, but in hindsight it’s not like the guy is without fault. He built an all-or-nothing team depending on two very good starters and some good defense, but with no margin for error. Unfortunately for him, there was considerable error.

“He built an all-or-nothing team depending on two very good starters and some good defense, but with no margin for error.”

That’s what I agree with, but people made it out to be a lock to make the playoffs and if you didn’t agree then you just didn’t understand OBP/UZR/etc.

He was counting on Bradley and Kotchman for 600 ABs each and Griffey/Sweeney as his DH, which is a joke. With Bedard as their 3rd starter after May. – Sorry, can’t take a team like that serious. It was a boom or bust team, with a greater chance of bust than boom.

“That’s what I agree with, but people made it out to be a lock to make the playoffs and if you didn’t agree then you just didn’t understand OBP/UZR/etc.”

If you’re referring to certain people such as Dave Cameron of USSMariner/FanGraphs, then that’s not entirely true–most close followers of the M’s acknowledged that the 2010 team was a “high variance” team, or a team that had the capacity to post 85-90 wins if many of the players hit their upside(Bradley, Bedard, Lopez, Kotchmann, etc.) At the same time, it was acknowledged by Cameron and many closer followers of the M’s that this was a high variance team, and the worst case projection of ~65 wins(or slightly worse) could happen, too–and it has. So be careful, there.

On the other hand, many in the mainstream media hitched their prediction wagons to the fact that the M’s had a good year in 2009 and added Cliff Lee, Milton Bradley, and Chone Figgins and automatically vaulted them to contender status without considering the potential of what could happen if the worst case scenario happened(I’m thinking of a few major publications here). No discussion of career years, WAR, or any potential pitfalls ever entered the discussion amongst these people, I’m fairly certain, and thus was born the media hype of the 2010 Seattle Mariners.

However, one important thing happened in 2010–the process of divesting the team of the mistakes of the Bill Bavasi era and rebuilding the minor league system. The foundation for the future is better, but it came at the expense of the major league team. Most of the M’s minor league affialiates are at .500 or better(Clinton and Tacoma both had great years, particularly), and this pipeline should become fruitful in the future, probably by 2012.

Even before Z the Ms have had a recent history of making very good teams on paper, only to see them fall short for a mess of reasons. This season is only the latest example. The Bedard trade that helped seal Bavasi’s fate was partly due to mis-evaluating how close they were to contention the season prior. It makes you wonder because, as vtadave points out, this season’s disappointment can also be described as a problem with evaluating talent, of which evaluating health is a part of.

1. Well, the manager needed to be changed because he lost the players–lost their respect, lost their drive to be a team focused on winning, lost…whatever way you want to state it, but Wakamatsu did it and he had to be fired, sadly. He’s a great guy, though. I wish him well.

2. And you’re right, the M’s made this mistake 2 years earlier when Bavasi committed the mortal sin of the Bedard trade. And the first 2 years of Jack Z’s tenure has seen him trying to right the organization after it was put so wrong by so many of Bavasi’s moves. Maybe that’s why some M’s fans are willing to cut him some slack.

Has every move Jack Z. made been golden? Of course not! The Morrow for League and Chavez trade was not my favorite, but I also see why it was done. For all the acclaim Morrow is getting this year(and all the heat the M’s are getting for having done it), it’s a hindsight thing that the media are using to place blame. Set aside Morrow’s performance this year and you’ll see some pretty big warning flags going forward. His lack of significant development as a starter during his (brief) tenure in the M’s minor league system, his diabetes, and his lack of a good secondary pitch make red lights pop up all around, as either a future injury case, or as a washout who won’t be starting in 2 more years because the league has figured him out. And while League is nothing special, the prospect they got back had a pretty good year and could be useful still.

So, needing to put together an MLB roster under the constrictions of money without going big time into the free agent pool…well, he made some good and bad moves, but perhaps he’s also looking past 2010 and seeing the long-term as well as the short-term. Not to say I’m happy with this season, obviously, but I see what he was trying to do, too.

That’s how I see it. ;)

A lot of the moves made this year were to provide low cost solutions at many positions of need until the minor league system develops more. With hardly anything in the system at the SS position before this season aside from Carlos Truinfel, Jack Z. was forced to trade for an MLB-ready SS in Jack Wilson(after trading Yuniesky Betancourt to the Royals). Wilson’s nothing special, for certain, but he’s a stopgap until Nick Franklin(or however unlikely, Carlos Triunfel) is ready. The same was true for Casey Kotchmann–they gave up nothing of significance and liked his defense and the potential he had shown from his offensive stats in 2007–but yeah, that had been 3 years earlier going into this season, but their hand was forced by Russell Branyan turning them down and little else available.

1. Your points about why Bavasi had to leave are good and valid. Though I am not making an argument over Bavasi one way or the other. My point is a larger one about institutional honesty inside the organization when they’re evaluating players. And, as much as the GM has control over this, to change such a culture–if it exists–I’d think it takes time to address such things, not just a signing or two within a season or so. All of that being said, my point might be just the way it incidentally appears from the outside based on recent results, and not necessarily reality. I think it’s important for Ms fans to be aware of this point of view.

2. I think there was a lot of buzz going into ’10, which I think you might agree, that the Ms were more than just trying to reach .500. This was based on the energy of regime change, and, the good acquisitions they made during the season. Much of those moves turned out to be better on paper, as we now know, but I don’t think anyone would have described the Ms in February as being a “rebuilding club” in the strictest sense. Just because we now see moves that look past 2010, it doesn’t demonstrate that they’ve actually been in rebuilding mode all this time. The Ms are smart to make moves today that look forward, but you can’t tell me, after the fact, that they’ve been targetting 2011+ years to contend all the while.

To me, you’re either in “rebuild” or you’re not. If you’re somewhere in between, you’re just running in place. This has been demonstrated time and again. I wish baseball’s system was more perfect and not set up this way, but it is what it is. Then again, on the other hand, I sympathize with the immense challenge Z was faced with going into the helm, of having to restock the farm, and field a majorleague team that will ameliorate the damage done in the last year of Bavasi’s term, both seemingly opposite goals. And, in that regard, I think he deserves some credit for his creativity. When you look at the Cliff Lee situation, it did exactly what he needed. He added a bigtime pitcher who brought hope back to the Mariner fans to start the year, but at midseason, he converted him to pieces that the franchise really needed (i.e. Smoak and friends). That in itself, is a nifty piece of management that was made specifically for the 2010 Ms’ circumstances.

MacPhail is in no danger of being let go. You could argue that keeping Trembley when he first became GM was a shrewd move for him. By keeping Trembley he kept continuity within the coaching staff (which was perceived to be needed at the time), while keeping the ace card of “changing the manager” in his pocket if needed, which would buy him some additional time to get results from a young team. Afterall, the talent wasn’t in place yet when he took over, and he knew he’d need a season or two just to restock the franchise, so why change the manager if it won’t make any difference than cosmetically?

On the contrary, I think MacPhail is on very shaky ground. He has had the worst performance of any GM in Orioles history, and he was overruled for his choice for manager – Angelos wanted Showalter, while MacPhail supported Wedge.

Davey Johnson was allowed to bring in Pat Gillick, so it stands to reason Buck Showalter could be allowed to bring in John Hart, who he had a great relationship with in Texas.

This is a key offseason, and Buck and MacPhail have different philosophies and Angelos would know this. So in order for Buck to get what he wants, he can bring in somebody that will do what he wants instead of clashing with MacPhail.

We could finally and thankfully see the end of the MacPhail era in Baltimore sooner than people think.

So you’re telling me that MacPhail is worse than Syd Thrift? Or Wren? OR whoever else manned the helm during the worst minorleague runs in the franchise? It was under MacPhail when we’ve seen 1st round draft picks actually reach the majors in nearly a decade.

I’d like to see where your facts are coming from regarding Angelos supporting Showalter, and, Wedge supported by MacPhail? I’m not saying it doesn’t exist, but until I actually see something substantive, it sounds like blogosphere conspiracy to me. The kind of thing you see spewed on discussion boards by anonymous users who purport to have inside knowledge, when in fact that may not, whose motives are to create discussion for its own sake, and who know that all they have to do is create the semblance of truth to inspire others to act on it as if it were the truth.

Ricco? If the Wilpons wanna make more money, they have to win. That means hiring a group of talent evaluators to run the front office, not just one. First, start with reassigning Omar Minaya to a scouting roll, because let’s face it, he has a terrefic eye for latin-american talent. Just look at Jenrry Mejia, Mets’ top pitching prospect. Signed for $16,000. Now he’s one of the best prospects in baseball.
Don Hart and Dan Jennings would both be great too, as they’re both talent evaluators. John Ricco isn’t. You could give Hart the GM job over Jennings, since he has GM experience, and hire Jennings as an assistant GM. You could let go of Ricco, or give him a financial statistic role, which is what he specializes in.
So, with that, you got a talent evaluator GM, a talent evaluator assistant GM, and a very good scout in Omar Minaya now.
Please let this happen.

what people fail to realize…time and time again…is that the problem is not with the GM…its with the organizational structure and hiearchy…until that is changed…all ur doing is swapping out chandeliers on a house made out of sandpaper.

Well, let’s face it. It seems like the Wilpons’ aren’t selling the team anytime soon, even with the financial problem after the Ponzi Scheme. So, we have to at least fix the whole front office. And about the coaching staff, I agree with Backman as manager, Chip Hale as 3rd base coach, and Howard Johnson could be a good bench coach. But, I wish Kieth would a hitting coach, but that won’t happen. So, we need to find a new one, but I can’t think of any off the top of my head right now. For pitching coach, see if you can get Bobby Ojeda to replace Warthen. Darling and Kieth like the booth too much, so they wouldn’t take the jobs. Mookie would be great at first, but if he doesn’t take the job, just let Shines keep it.

ehhh…I like Warthen, he was their minor league pitching instructor and has worked decent with Niese, Dickey, Pelfrey, Mejia. i wouldnt trust razor being that he is one of Jerry’s kids ( no pun intended ). What the mets need is cohesion. And lets see how much money the govt is going to ask Sterling Enterprises to cough up. It could be close to a 1 billion dollars. but might be in between 500-750 million. Anybody that made money illegaly with that Ponzi scheme is gonna have to cough that up. My dream come true is an owner that is at least honest with their fan-base and is a FAN of the team himself. These guys dont take it personal when the mets lose. they stay looking at the cash register, not the product.

ehhh…I like Warthen, he was their minor league pitching instructor and has worked decent with Niese, Dickey, Pelfrey, Mejia. i wouldnt trust razor being that he is one of Jerry’s kids ( no pun intended ). What the mets need is cohesion. And lets see how much money the govt is going to ask Sterling Enterprises to cough up. It could be close to a 1 billion dollars. but might be in between 500-750 million. Anybody that made money illegaly with that Ponzi scheme is gonna have to cough that up. My dream come true is an owner that is at least honest with their fan-base and is a FAN of the team himself. These guys dont take it personal when the mets lose. they stay looking at the cash register, not the product.

Well, let’s face it. It seems like the Wilpons’ aren’t selling the team anytime soon, even with the financial problem after the Ponzi Scheme. So, we have to at least fix the whole front office. And about the coaching staff, I agree with Backman as manager, Chip Hale as 3rd base coach, and Howard Johnson could be a good bench coach. But, I wish Kieth would a hitting coach, but that won’t happen. So, we need to find a new one, but I can’t think of any off the top of my head right now. For pitching coach, see if you can get Bobby Ojeda to replace Warthen. Darling and Kieth like the booth too much, so they wouldn’t take the jobs. Mookie would be great at first, but if he doesn’t take the job, just let Shines keep it.