000
FXUS63 KSGF 071700
AFDSGF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1100 AM CST Wed Dec 7 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 211 AM CST Wed Dec 7 2016
Upper level short wave energy will approach the area from the west
today. As this happens, an upper leveljet streak will strengthen
from eastern Kansas into the eastern Great Lakes region. This will
put portions of eastern Kansas and western Missouri in the right-
entrance region of the jet streak and establish mid/upper level
lift across the area.
Meanwhile, frontogenesis (Fn) in the 700-750 mb layer will
provide a focus for lower level lift. The zone of Fn will
initially be focused along the I-70 corridor this morning. We are
already seeing echoes on radar in this region, however nothing is
reaching the ground. This should change as we get into early this
morning across northeastern Kansas as that Fn strengthens and the
lower levels of the atmosphere saturate. We should begin to see
flakes fly by later this morning across extreme southeastern
Kansas and west-central Missouri.
This band of Fn will then slowly sink south as we get into this
afternoon and this evening. Chances for snow (possibly mixed with
a little rain at onset) will therefore increase across the
remainder of the Missouri Ozarks during this time period with the
best chances generally confined to areas along and north of the
Ozark Plateau. The main threat for snow will then end over most
areas by midnight.
We are still expecting a banded nature to this snow as slantwise
instability will be available above the zone of Fn. Thus, heavier
bursts of snow will knock down visibilities for short periods of
time. The good news is that these snow bands will be transient in
nature versus training over the same locations. Accumulations are
therefore generally expected to range from a dusting to a half
inch. An isolated one inch amount will be possible generally along
and west of the Highway 65 corridor where deep tropospheric lift
will be maximized.
Cold air advection will really kick in tonight as northwest winds
increase. Overnight low temperatures will fall into the teens
areawide. With those brisk northwest winds, wind chills by
daybreak will be well down into the single digits.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 211 AM CST Wed Dec 7 2016
Strong Canadian high pressure will build into the region on
Thursday and settle right over the Missouri/Kansas border by
sunrise on Friday. Much below normal temperatures are therefore
expected with highs over most areas not reaching the freezing mark
on Thursday. With winds remaining brisk out of the northwest, wind
chills will remain in the single digits and teens all day. We
have then nudged low temperatures downward for Thursday night
with confidence increasing on the positioning of that surface
high. Upper single digits appear increasingly likely across
portions of western Missouri and southeastern Kansas.
A warming trend will begin as we head into the weekend as that
high shifts east of the region. High temperatures should return
to at least the lower 40s over most areas for the weekend. Global
models continue to indicate another system moving through the
region late this weekend. However, models continue to struggle
with both the structure and timing of this system. We have
therefore maintained 20-40% PoPs and a rain or rain/snow mix.
Global models have then trended colder for next work week. This is
especially true for the middle and later portions of the week as
five wave charts indicate a deepeningtrough over eastern North
America. If this pans out, another cold shot or two may be on the
way.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1057 AM CST Wed Dec 7 2016
Radar has been showing some snowy echoes across the area, however
dry low levels have prevent this from reaching the ground until
around 16z. Starting to get some flurries developing over extreme
southeast Kansas and west central MO now and it should start
working its way into the SGF/JLN areas this afternoon. Ceilings
will continue to lower and may see some MVFRvisibility when it
begins to snow. Clearing should take place by late evening with a
clear sky for the overnight hours.
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Schaumann
LONG TERM...Schaumann
AVIATION...Lindenberg