ESPN predicts Phillies will finish 29th out of 30 teams this season

Posted by Stephen Gross | February 05, 2014 at 01:50 PM

The Phillies will fail to make the playoffs and record only 66 wins this year - a number they've failed to reach only once since 1995.

That's what ESPN's David Schoenfield, who is in the process of ranking every single MLB team, thinks anyway. In Schoenfield's rankings, only the Houston Astros finish the season worse than the Phillies.

It's easy to say the Phillies aren't going to make it back to the top of the NL East this year, but to say they'll be the second worst team in Major League Baseball? That's hard to believe.

While Schoenfield doesn’t give much hope to Philadelphia baseball fans this year, he does give a path for the Phillies to reach 90 wins. Using the Pythagorean theory of winning percentage, he says the Phillies need to score 75 more runs and allow 142 less than they did last year.

Without delving into the questions surrounding Marlon Byrd, new Cuban pitcher Miguel Gonzalez and the countless other uncertainties the Phillies face heading into spring training, let’s just look at first base.

Barring any new injuries, Ryan Howard is your opening day starter. With a torn Achilles tendon and a torn meniscus, Howard hasn’t played more than 80 games in either of the past two seasons. Consequently, he hasn’t hit more than 14 home runs or driven in more than 56 runs since 2011.

At the time of Howard’s injury last season, the first baseman was hitting .266 with a .319 on-base percentage and a .465 slugging percentage. Those are a bit lower than where you’d like for someone like Howard but it was the first year he didn’t decline in any of those categories since 2009.

Howard was bouncing back from that torn Achilles very nicely, especially considering the 35-year-old tends to put up his best numbers come September and the meniscus injury ended his season in July.

We may never see the days of 40 to 50 home runs from Howard but if he stays healthy, 30 is not out of the question. RBI totals reaching triple digits are possible as well.

With Howard putting up numbers like that, the Phillies would be able to make up a majority of the runs Schoenfield says they’d need to reach 90 wins. Howard’s defense, which is much improved over the early part of his career, also could save the team some runs playing a full season.

What if he doesn’t stay healthy? Enter Darin Ruf.

Ruf spent time at first last year and said at the Phillies Winter Banquet at the Sands Event Center in January that he’s been focused on improving his defense during the offseason.

Gaining some big league experience last year, Ruf, who has a decent amount of raw power, should easily improve on his offensive numbers. Playing in less than half of Philadelphia’s games last year Ruf homered 14 times while knocking in 30 runs and slugging .458.

An improvement in both offense and defense for Ruf, if the Phillies need him, would also help the team in the runs scored and runs allowed departments.

No doubt, there are a lot of questions and Ryne Sandberg will have his work cut out for him in his first full season at the helm. Just inspecting first base, however, it’s easy to see a season with a win total closer to the mid-70’s than the mid-60’s.

In any case, it's a stretch to think that the Phillies won't even beat out the Miami Marlins and the New York Mets.