Hope and Change: Republicans up 5 on generic Congressional ballot

Ed MorrisseyPosted at 12:15 pm on August 19, 2009

How have American voters responded to the introduction of massive spending and government oversight in the era of Hope and Change? They have shown great enthusiasm — for replacing Democratic leadership with Republicans. According to the latest Rasmussen poll on the generic Congressional ballot, Republicans have jumped out to their biggest lead in years. Allahpundit posted about this yesterday, but it’s worth a second look to see the crosstab demographics:

Republican candidates have now matched their biggest lead over Democrats of the past several years on the Generic Congressional Ballot.

The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey shows that 43% would vote for their district’s Republican congressional candidate while 38% would opt for his or her Democratic opponent. …

These findings come at the same time that voters, for the first time in over two years of polling, say they trust Republicans slightly more than Democrats on the handling of the issue of health care.

Republicans used to maintain majorities even when trailing on these poll questions. Democrats didn’t take control of Congress until anti-incumbent fervor hit peak levels in 2006, following scandals in the House. Despite this major reversal, Republicans probably need a similar catalyst, but ObamaCare and cap-and-tax may be enough.

As is always the case, the independent voters tell the story. The overall polling shows a 43%-38% advantage for Republicans, but that explodes to 45%-18% among independents. That’s an amazing 27-point gap, which will be most felt in the Blue Dog districts Nancy Pelosi and Rahm Emanuel exploited to gain their majority. Democrats, especially Congressional Democrats, have utterly lost the unaffiliated voters, which portends a very depressing midterm election cycle next year.

The rest of the demographics show other problems for Democrats. They have lost their advantage among women, who now favor the GOP by a narrow 41%-39%. The Democrats lose in every age category except 18-29, which they only carry 44%-34%. They carry voters at income levels below $40K, but lose every other income demo, by majorities in the $60-75K and $100K+ categories. They’ve lost all categories of religious voters, which means that the What Would Jesus Cover argument isn’t gaining any traction at all.

Democrats couldn’t have done worse if they had been deliberately trying to lose the 2010 midterms. Their radical agenda has alienated the nation, which is why we see the angry confrontations in the town halls this month. That’s no fluke, and these polls prove it.