“[I]t would be very difficult to win merely by mobilizing the ‘very conservative’ party base. Mathematically speaking, it is possible, but in practice multiple candidates tend to be in competition for that bloc, which means the ultimate winner will probably have to string together a voting coalition that samples from the more moderate factions. There are, of course, many ways to skin this cat — and George W. Bush’s coalition in 2000 was more conservative than McCain’s in 2008 — but the point is that, whichever mix you put together, Pawlenty, or any other candidate, will need some kind of mix. And it would be very difficult to win the nomination without getting at least 15 percent of either the ‘very conservative’ or the ‘moderate’ faction.

“In other words, candidates who can pursue a ‘Goldilocks strategy’ can be favored — those who come across as not too conservative or too moderate, but fall somewhere in between. And on this front, Pawlenty might be able to carve out a real niche for himself.”

***
“Over the course of the last five months PPP has polled Republican voters in 16 different states that had primaries or caucuses while Romney was still in the race for President in 2008. Comparing the support Romney received then to the support he has now does not present a pretty picture for his chances at winning the nomination. On average he is doing 14 points worse than he did in his first campaign. These numbers suggest that little of the support he received in 2008 was ‘hard’ and that with a different field of candidates he could have difficulty getting the same people who voted for him the first time around to do it again…

“I don’t know whether these declining numbers for Romney are because voters have actually turned against him over the last three years or because he was more of a default choice they weren’t terribly enthused about in the first place, but they certainly show he hasn’t been making a whole lot of new friends since his last bid.”

***
“I see three [factors], and all have to be in place and reinforce each other for Obama to lose. First, the economy in 2012 has to be either stagnant or in decline in the 10 or so key electoral states (especially the ones in the Midwest) as he heads into the election. This would mean that the economy is creating very few net jobs in 2012 and that prices (including food and gas) are still rising.

“Second, no new major international crisis arises that causes people to rally behind Obama because of his competent handling of it. And I emphasize the words ‘new,’ ‘major,’ and ‘competent.’ Afghanistan and Iraq devolving again into a problem will not help Obama, and actually may hurt him because our country has basically moved on from the situation in both places.

“Third, a Republican nominee has to emerge who is charismatic; is a very good communicator; is in touch with the country’s economic and social needs; and is a new brand of GOP leader whom many younger voters can connect with. Think of what it took in 1980 to defeat the Democratic incumbent—Ronald Reagan and crises galore.”

***
“‘I think what the younger voters have figured out is that this is a broken relationship. He made soaring promises and grand expectations. He’s broken those promises,’ [Pawlenty] told the crowd of students. ‘If this was a Lady Gaga song, the relationship between the youth vote and Barack Obama would be ‘Bad Romance.”

“Pawlenty, Minnesota’s most recent former governor and a potential future presidential hopeful, said the news of the day has been dominated by the tragedy in Japan, issues in the Middle East, and Charlie Sheen.

“‘We may not in this room have tiger blood like he does,’ Pawlenty said, referring to the television actor, ‘but we’ve got something else in common with him. There’s going to be a lot of winning on the Republican side in 2012.'”

***
“Pawlenty is viewed by many GOP Insiders as the 2012 contender with the least political baggage who has positioned himself as a candidate with the broadest appeal to the party conservative base from tea party supporters to values voters. ‘Increasingly the choice by process-of-elimination,’ noted one Republican Insider. ‘His strategy is to be the least offensive of the ugly girls still standing at the bar at 2 a.m.,’ joked another GOP Insider.”

Rubio seems like a nice guy but it was foolish for him to jump headfirst into the Libya pool without first determining our allies and interests. Rubio exercised poor judgment, IMO, and a governorship is a more appropriate path for him to higher office.

Seeing Rubio at the top of Pawlenty’s list increases my apprehension about Pawlenty.

The bad far, far outweighs the good. The USA PATRIOT Act should be repealed and replaced by an act that properly balances the needs of national security with the far more fundamental need for the government to obey the Constitution and the Bill of Rights.

That being said, that article is an April Fool’s joke. Though I must say, my respect for Rep. Bachmann would have increased enormously if it weren’t.

I did a quick search and it appears that Pawlenty wanted to jump into Libya sooner, obviously without knowing who our allies are or what are interests were. I’m not looking for a candidate that will jump blindly into every progressive war without knowing the facts first.

So so far the only person running is Timmy cain and MB. there is a joke in there somewhere.

I really can’t see Mitt running. what does he bring to the table? Healthcare reform? having the 47th worse job creation record? leaving his state in debt? Raising fees by $500 million? underfunding pensions? I mean really what would be Romney’s platform? What does he bring to the table?

vote for me I’m not Obama?

Timmy is a little better than Mitt but what is his record? I can never stay awake long enough to hear it.

MB? seiriously does anyone think she is quailified? and if you do who in your mind is not quailified? She makes Obama appear like he is a sage.

Well there is that. Which might be good enough to get him the nomination. the lesser of two evils has been known to work I’ll give you that. But then what? can he raise $1 billion to compete with Obama? will he be able to rally people to him? I don’t know. he has a better shot than Mitt, huck and Newt but I think if he gets the nomination the GOP will sleep through the election.

Get back to me after the debates. I sort of know ahead who does well on camera, who’s going to “step in it” and step themselves out (as El_ said, we’ve had a sneak preview), and who’s going to pander with his wet finger in the air.
Who knows, with Herman Cain, Sarah Palin may look like “Goldilocks”. She certainly hasn’t fallen for singling out a religion and getting the “bigot” label already.

Debates are entertaining but they’re all about the words. How they react to and deal with events is far more revealing. On Libya I think that several potential candidates just sank themselves, including Pawlenty and Rubio.

Rand Paul and any other candidates that were more circumspect about Libya, take note be sure to point out your superior foreign policy credentials during any and all debates.

I remember “Raise your hand if you think global warming is man caused” and who’s hand shot up immediately and who looked around and then raised their hand and who looked straight ahead. I think debates are helpful.

Oh god. Please no Charlie Sheen references in this election cycle. Sheen was amusing for a week, and then you realize he really is a whacked out cokehead who blew a million dollar salary over hookers and blow.

Not exactly the kind of “celebrity” a candidate should compare his campaign to.

With all the references to “Drill, Baby, Drill”, I honestly think Obama is afraid of Palin. She’s living rent free in the media, and the administration’s heads. I would love to see her pick General Petraeus for veep which would just finish them off.

“I don’t know whether these declining numbers for Romney are because voters have actually turned against him over the last three years or because he was more of a default choice they weren’t terribly enthused about in the first place, but they certainly show he hasn’t been making a whole lot of new friends since his last bid.”

I think both are true: I only voted for Romney in my state’s primary because my favorite candidate had just dropped out (Fred!) and I didn’t want McShamnesty to win. But, Romney hasn’t done anything to garner new support and, for me personally, he completely lost me when he came out agaisnt the FL pastor’s rights last year (along with Palin).

As for these quotes from Pawlenty with all the pop-culture references, barf! I don’t want a POTUS who puts Lady Gaga in his speech in any way, shape, or form. I think we’ve had enough “hip” in the WH, what with O and all his celeb pals.

With all the references to “Drill, Baby, Drill”, I honestly think Obama is afraid of Palin. She’s living rent free in the media, and the administration’s heads. I would love to see her pick General Petraeus for veep which would just finish them off.

mike_NC9 on April 2, 2011 at 12:12 AM

the energy issue is a big one. Only Gov Palin can bring it to the table and be believed that she will open things up. A vp pick of Petraeus? I have thought of it over the months. Just not sure about it becaus eI really have no idea what his politcs are. We could get a Powell liberal just not enough information to be sure.

The attacks on everything she does tells me the Dems for whatever reason are worried about Gov Palin still. We don’t see many attacks on timmy so that tells me the DNC doesn’t see him as a threat at all.

Back in August/Septmeber when the FL first made the news, Romney said that any soldiers’ death would be his fault (i.e. he put a blood libel on the guy) the same day Palin came out and said the pastor wasn’t a Christian… looking up the HA link right now…

And that makes me like him more! You forget that Islam is not a “religion”, it’s a political-death-cult-take-over-the-world ideaology.

-Aslan’s Girl

Aslans Girl on April 2, 2011 at 12:18 AM

You keep saying that. I’m sure a person who dislikes all Jews would “like him even more!” if he said he wouldn’t appoint a Jew to his cabinet. It was an idiotic statement that would ruin his chances to run for even Mayor of any major city.

Former Minnesota Gov. Jesse Ventura says Sarah Palin will be the GOP nominee for president in 2012, and she’ll “be controlled by the status quo.”

Appearing on CNN’s “Piers Morgan Tonight” Monday at 9 p.m. EST, the one-term Reform Party governor said that former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin is being groomed for the role, though he doesn’t care who the presidential nominees are for either party.

Now the same people that voted in this fruitcake voted for Timmy. Any questions?

the same day Palin came out and said the pastor wasn’t a Christian…
-Aslan’s Girl

Aslans Girl on April 2, 2011 at 12:30 AM

I have no idea why you felt it was necassary to lie about what Gov Palin stated back in sept. but her are her exact words:

Update: Book burning is bad. But the Muslim cleric who is running for parliament in Afghanistan is calling for the murder of American children in response to scorched Korans, which is worse. Where is the media’s focus?

Book burning is antithetical to American ideals. People have a constitutional right to burn a Koran if they want to, but doing so is insensitive and an unnecessary provocation – much like building a mosque at Ground Zero.

I would hope that Pastor Terry Jones and his supporters will consider the ramifications of their planned book-burning event. It will feed the fire of caustic rhetoric and appear as nothing more than mean-spirited religious intolerance. Don’t feed that fire. If your ultimate point is to prove that the Christian teachings of mercy, justice, freedom, and equality provide the foundation on which our country stands, then your tactic to prove this point is totally counter-productive.

Our nation was founded in part by those fleeing religious persecution. Freedom of religion is integral to our charters of liberty. We don’t need to agree with each other on theological matters, but tolerating each other without unnecessarily provoking strife is how we ensure a civil society. In this as in all things, we should remember the Golden Rule. Isn’t that what the Ground Zero mosque debate has been about?

Though I support the ‘boring one’-I think Palin’s a class act who really loves this nation…so I agree with you on this.

annoyinglittletwerp on April 2, 2011 at 12:43 AM

hey boring might be the winning formula in 2012 and like I said he is better than Mitt, Newt and huck….I just think he will get clobbered in 2012…..and you know I’m joking about the jessy think right?:)

since i’m still an ILL-annoyz-an for another week….and considering that in November the state reelected a guy who ran on promising to RAISE the state income tax…I don’t think i’ve any room to speak about ‘rational decisions’.

You know what I think is a far bigger priority over Libya, right now at this moment? Afghanistan. The imams of three mosques incited their congregants to murder a bunch of UN people. What are we going to do about that? Are the mosques still there? Has there been any news?

Oh and BTW Gov Palin was the only national politican to denounce Islam’s actions as well as the pastors to this day. And she was the only one with enough knowledge and smarts to tie the koran buring with the GZM construction. She called out both wrongs and equated both wrongs.

she was a uniter her in a common purpose to deflame the issue without placing blame on only one side. that my friends is also called being a diplomat.

unseen, you’re right; she didn’t outright say the guy wasn’t a Christian, but she did say that his “tactic” was “counter-productive” to “Christian teachings of mercy, justice, freedom, and equality”, which, to me, was questioning his faith. By stating that “book burning is anti-thetical to American ideals” I also got the impression she was calling him un-American. And this quote:

People have a constitutional right to burn a Koran if they want to, but doing so is insensitive and an unnecessary provocation – much like building a mosque at Ground Zero.

was a moral equivalence between the GZM Muslims and a Christian in FL, not to mention the whole quote looked pretty lily-livered for a person who claims others have no “cajones”.

I want Jindal as PRESIDENT!
Spawn’s birthday was fine. His girlfriend’s grandmother-she lives with her grandparents-is now my FB friend.
Good. More chance for me to monitor the little angels.
Btw: he’s 17 and I feel like a dinosaur.