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MLB Picks

Best Bet for Mets vs. Giants is 'Under' with Cain-Colon Matchup

Whenever I am analyzing the MLB betting lines, I always try to avoid paying juice. Is this the case with the over/under odds as the NY Mets visit the San Francisco Giants?

Mets vs. Giants Betting Odds
I thought this line came out a little low at the total of 7 with the numbers that backup both these pitchers. Right now, MLB picks placed on the under in this ballgame the juice is a little bit higher than the over, but the best odds I have found are at Pinnacle sports at -115. You might want to wait a little bit because if this line goes anywhere it's probably going to go up.

Tuesday's Starting Pitchers
For the New York Mets Bartolo Colon takes the mound with a 4.55 ERA and 1.20 WHIP. In two out of his last five games he was not sharp allowing 10 earned runs in just 10 innings, but in his other three starts he was very solid allowing only four runs in 20 innings. He has done a nice job this year of keeping the run totals down and I expect him to do so today despite his high Road ERA of 5.02.

For the Giants Matt Cain is finally back after allowing five earned runs in just five innings for an ERA of 9.00 and a WHIP of 2.20. But that is just from his first game back and all the reports indicate that he has been looking solid in his comeback appearances. Career wise he has been one of the best pitchers in the National League for the past 10 years with a 3.41 ERA and 1.18 WHIP in 281 starts. I expect him to pitched very well being back at home against a subpar offense like the Mets, I actually think he is going to dominate this game.

At the Plate
There is a large disparity between the Giants and the Mets at the plate this year. The closest they are in the important offensive categories is runs scored where the Giants are ranked 13th in the league and the Mets rank 27th. Other than that the Giants are a top-tier team and the Mets rank in the bottom of the league. The Giants rank third in both hits and batting average while the Mets rank 29th in both of these categories. Offensively these are two teams heading in different directions, but for the total to go over the number usually it takes two teams to get involved.

I really look for Cain to have a very solid day on the mound and Colon to do just enough to keep the Giants down in the numbers. This game has all the makings of a 4-1 type of contest, but what really gets me is where this number is set and the juice that is added onto it which tells me the odds makers also expect a low-scoring affair. I will side with them on this side of the MLB odds and take the under with confidence.