I hope that those who feel that their war work lies
especially in the direction of criticism will make allowances
for these difficulties inherent in the situation. I hope they
will also remember that no sensible person in war-time makes
speeches because he wants to. He makes them because he has to
and to no one does this apply more than to the Prime
Minister. I have repeatedly called attention to the
disadvantages of my having to give too frequent reviews of
the war, and I have always declined to be drawn into
discussions about strategy or tactics so far as they may have
relation to current or pending events. The House has shown me
great indulgence in this matter, but I feel that I should be
excused today from entering upon discussion of the war
position, to which I referred in a speech I made only a month
ago. Most of all shall I refrain from making any prediction
about the future. It is a month ago that I remarked upon the
long silence of Herr Hitler, a remark which apparently
provoked him to make a speech in which he told the German
people that Moscow would fall in a few days. That shows, as
everyone, I am sure, will agree, how much wiser he would have
been to go on keeping his mouth shut.

Even I, in my modest way, run great risks of giving
dissatisfaction when I speak. Some people are very hard to
please. It is impossible to please everybody; whatever you
say, some fault can be found. If, for instance, I were to
pay-as I should like to pay-strong tribute to the splendid
heroism and undaunted gallantry of our Russian Allies, I
should immediately be answered, "Let us have deeds, not
words." If I were to omit all reference to Russian
bravery, it would, on the other hand, be said, "Not even
one kindly world was spoken to cheer on these heroes."
If I were to describe the help in detail which we are giving
to Russia, that might be very interesting, but it would give
away to the enemy secrets which are Russian as well as
British. Again, if I gave an appreciation of the fighting on
the Russian front, I should get hit either way. If my account
were favourable, I should be accused of fostering
complacency. On the other hand, if it were grave, I should be
accused of spreading needless despondency and alarm, and the
Russians would not thank me for underrating or disparaging
their giant strength. I must mention these facts merely as
illustrations of the difficulties and dangers of making too
many speeches about the war at times like these, and to give
a respectful explanation to the House of why, with one
fleeting exception, I am not going to refer to-day to any of
the changing phases of this tremendous struggle.

I am, however, able to give some information about the
war at sea. The House will remember the very good reasons
which were given for leaving off publishing monthly figures
of sinkings by enemy action and how those precise periodical
statements, made at too frequent intervals, gave the enemy
valuable information as to how his varying tactics were
succeeding; but there is no objection to giving exact figures
for longer periods, and I take this occasion to give figures
of the last four months, ending with October, without
dividing them into months, and compared with the figures,
already published, of the four preceding months ending with
June. They are certainly well worthy of mention. I am
speaking in round numbers. In the four months ending with
June, we lost just over 2,000,000 tons, or an average of
500,000 tons per month. In the last four months, ending with
October, we lost less than 750,000 tons, or an average of
180,000 tons per month. 180,000 contrasts very favourably
with 500,000 tons. I see opposite me my right hon. friend the
Member for Carnarvon Boroughs (Mr. Lloyd George). We shared,
I in a very humble position, but with full knowledge, the
terrible anxieties of 1917. We saw the figures mount, but we
also saw the sudden fall. However, we must not count at all
that the danger is past, but the facts are more favourable
than are represented by the reduction on the four-monthly
period from 500,000 to 180,000 because, from the point of
view of keeping alive our power to wage war at sea, and of
increasing it, you have to take account not only of what is
lost but of new building. You have to deduct the new building
and see how the position stands. I do not intend to give
exact figures about new building, but, making allowance for
new building, the net loss of our Mercantile Marine, apart
altogether from captures from the enemy and United States
assistance, has been reduced in the last four months to a
good deal less than one-fifth of what it was in the previous
four months. That is an impressive fact. This has been done
in spite of the fact that there were never more U-boats or
more long-range aircraft working than there are now. While
that fact should lead us to increase our successful
exertions, and should in no way favour an easy habit of mind,
it does, I think, give solid and sober assurances, as was
mentioned by my right hon. friend earlier, that we shall be
able to maintain our seaborne traffic until the great
American shipbuilding promised for 1942 comes into service.
The United States are, of course, building new merchant ships
on a scale many times what we are able to do in this Island.
Having regard to the many calls upon us, our new shipbuilding
is confined to a certain proportion of our resources, but the
United States are embarking on an output of ships
incomparably greater than what we can produce and far
surpassing the enormous efforts they successfully made in the
last war.

If we are able to get through this year, we shall
certainly find ourselves in good supply of ships in 1942. If
the war against the U-boats and the enemy aircraft continues
to prosper as it has done-about which there can be, of
course, no guarantee-the Freedom Powers will be possessed of
large quantities of shipping in 1943, which will enable
oversee operations to take place utterly beyond British
resources at the present time. Meanwhile, the destruction of
enemy shipping is proceeding with even greater violence than
before. During the four months ended October, there were sunk
or seriously damaged nearly 1,000,000 tons. In the
Mediterranean, the enemy's losses have been particularly
severe, and there is evidence that he has found it very
difficult to reinforce, or even to supply, his armies on the
African shores. This last convoy was a particularly valuable
one, and its total destruction together with the devastation
being wrought by our submarines in the Mediterranean, is
certainly very much to be rejoiced over.

There are at least 40,000 Italian women, children and
noncombatants in Abyssinia. Some time ago, guided by
humanitarian instincts, we offered to let the Italian
Government take these people home, if they would send under
the necessary safeguards their own shipping to the ports on
the Red Sea. The Italian Government accepted this proposal,
and agreement was reached on all the details, but they have
never been able so far to send the ships specified, because
the destruction of their ships has proceeded at such a high
rate and to such a serious extent. All this makes me
hopeful-although, of course, I will not prophesy-that the
German and Italian boasts that they will take Suez by the end
of May last, will very likely remain unfulfilled at
Christmas. That is much more than we had any right to expect
when the Italian Government declared war upon us and the
French deserted us in the Mediterranean, 18 months ago.

The fact that our shipping losses have so remarkably
diminished, and diminished at the very time when Hitler
boasted that his sea war would be at its height, must be
taken in conjunction with our greatly increased production of
food at home. I have always held the view that the British
people, especially their heavy workers, must be properly fed
and nourished if we are to get the full results from our war
effort, and at the beginning of the year, when it looked as
if we should have to choose to some extent between food and
munitions imports, I asked the Cabinet to approve a minimum
of food imports to be maintained, if necessary, even at the
expense of munition materials. There is no doubt that the
dietary of our people has been severely curtailed and has
become far less varied and interesting. Still, at the rate we
are now going, it is sufficient for our physical health,
although I am hoping that we shall be able to give a somewhat
larger share of the available supplies of meat to the workers
who need it most. This will be done by a rapid expansion of
canteens which will supply meals off the ration to the
workers they serve at places where those workers are actually
gathered. I am glad to say that the figure which we
prescribed for minimum food imports will now probably be
achieved, and even a little surpassed, and that the Minister
of Food has been able to make certain minor relaxations
during the winter months in the severity of his restrictions.
As a precaution, we have amassed stocks, of bulky articles of
our diet, which amount to double what we had in September,
1939. We are going to make a job of this war, and those who
are working on the job must have their strength fully
maintained, because although much has been asked of them in
the past, we are going to ask them for more as the struggle
deepens. The agricultural ministers for England and Scotland
are also to be congratulated upon the very great expansion
they have made of our home food production. In the short
space of two years the area under crops has been increased by
no less than 45 per cent. Although the corn harvest that was
gathered was not quite so good as we had hoped it would be
before I left for the Atlantic meeting-and here I must say
that in future I shall be as careful in abstaining from
prophecy in agricultural matters as I am in military
matters-nevertheless, the cereal crop was 50 per cent.
greater than in 1939. We should also have very large crops of
potatoes, sugar beet, fodder roots and other fodder crops
this year. Despite the lack of imported feeding-stuffs we
have well maintained our head of cattle, both dairy cows and
beef cattle, and I hope-I say this on the spur of the moment
and shall perhaps get into trouble-that my right hon. and
noble friend will see if he can do something with the hens.
All who have to do with the land, farmer and farm worker
alike, have played a worthy part in this achievement. But
satisfactory as are the results to date, there must be no
relaxation of our efforts.

Despite all difficulties, we must go on to produce still
more, not only because of the ever-present menace to our
importation from abroad, but because it is possible that as
the war develops our military operations will make much more
extensive demands on our shipping.

I mention these facts at the risk of being accused of
complacency. When I spoke a month ago I mentioned the fact
that our people would have better Christmas dinners this year
than last year, and dinners which would be more justified by
the food position. For this I incurred a rebuke from the
"Daily Herald," which wrote, with a Spartan
austerity which I trust the editorial staff will practise as
well as preach, that we were "making war, not
wassail." It is a poor heart that never rejoices; the
House may rest assured that we shall not err on the side of
over-indulgence. The building-up of reserves is continuous,
and I trust that we shall not be blamed for stoking up those
fires of human energy and spirit upon which our victory in
this long struggle depends.

Some months ago we were anxious about the coal position
for this winter, and it still gives cause for concern. I am
glad to say that, thanks to the exertions of the President of
the Board of Trade and of the Secretary of the Mines
Department-the situation is better than appeared likely a few
months ago. Our stocks of coal are now between 2,000,000 and
3,000,000 tons larger than they were a year ago and are far
better distributed, and the men, who have responded most
nobly to the appeal made, are working a longer working week
than before. There has been great concern on the part of some
of the younger miners at not being allowed to go to the Army.
We have had some very hard cases of young men who wished to
go and serve in the fighting forces, and we all understand
how they feel. But they can really best help the war effort
at the moment by staying where they are, although at the same
time, as things develop, we must endeavour to meet the wishes
of individuals as far as possible in regard to the form of
service they give. I know how tremendous was the contribution
which the miners made in the last war, when we had the same
difficulty in holding the men at the pits. What the position
will be if this country becomes the scene of actual strife, I
cannot tell, but I sympathise entirely with their feelings,
and if we have to ask them to make the sacrifice, it is
because of the vital necessity of coal to our whole
production. Against this improved situation we have to bear
in mind the steadily increasing demand which is coming as our
war industries expand, and it is necessary that all efforts
for the production of and economy in fuel should continue.
There are good grounds for the belief that we shall come
through the winter all right, and that, without having
deranged our Army by withdrawing thousands of coal miners
from their platoons, the regular process of our coal supply
will be maintained.

There is nothing that Hitler will dislike more than my
recital of these prosaic but unassailable facts. There is
nothing that he and his Nazi regime dread more than the proof
that we are capable of fighting a prolonged war and the proof
of the failure of their efforts to starve us into submission.
In the various remarks which the Deputy-Führer, Herr
Hess, has let fall from time to time during his sojourn in
our midst, nothing has been more clear than that Hitler
relied upon the starvation attack more than upon invasion to
bring us to our knees. His hopes were centered upon
starvation, as his boasts have made the world aware So far as
1941 at least is concerned, those hopes have been dashed to
the ground. But this only increases his need to come at us by
direct invasion as soon as he can screw up his courage and
make his arrangements to take the plunge. Therefore, we must
have everything working forward for the improved weather of
the spring, so that we are well prepared to meet any scale of
attack that can be directed upon us. Although we are
infinitely stronger than we were a year ago, or even six
months ago, yet at the same time the enemy has had ample time
for preparations, and you may be sure that if an invasion of
this country is attempted by the Germans, it will be upon a
plan which has been thought out in every detail with their
customary ruthlessness and thoroughness.

I now come, on what I hope is a fairly solid foundation,
to the criticism of the Government. My right hon. friend the
Member for South-West Bethnal Green (Sir P. Harris) spoke of
criticism as being the life-blood of democracy. Certainly we
are a very full-blooded democracy. In war it is very hard to
bring about successes and very easy to make mistakes or to
point them out after they have been made. There was a custom
in ancient China that anyone who wished to criticise the
Government had the right to memorialise the Emperor, and,
provided he followed that up by committing suicide, very
great respect was paid to his words, and no ulterior motive
was assigned. That seems to me to have been, from many points
of view, a wise custom, but I certainly would be the last to
suggest that it should be made retrospective. Our universal
resolve to keep Parliamentary institutions in full activity
amid the throes of war has been proved. That is a feat of
enormous difficulty, never accomplished in any such complete
perfection in history. His Majesty's Government base
themselves upon the House of Commons. They look to the House
for aid and comfort, in the incalculable perils by which we
are beset. We are entitled to seek from the House from time
to time the formal renewal of their confidence. The debate on
the address furnishes the signal outstanding parliamentary
opportunity of the year. It is the Grand Inquest of the
nation.

The fact of passing the address in reply to the gracious
speech without any amendment is the proof to the nation and
to the whole world that the King's ministers enjoy the
confidence of Parliament. This is essential to any government
in times of war, because any sign of division or any
suspicion of weakness disheartens our friends and encourages
our foes. We shall therefore give the fullest facilities to
the debate on the address, either upon the general debate or
upon amendments. I should like to point out to people outside
this House, and to countries abroad which do not realise the
flexibility and potency of our parliamentary institutions,
nor how they work, that any amendment, however seductive,
however misleading, however tendentious, however artful,
however sober, or however wide, which the wit or other
qualities of man may devise, can be placed upon the paper,
can be fully debated by the arrangement of calling particular
amendments. None shall be invidiously excluded. If a division
takes place, it is a matter of confidence, which,
nevertheless, enables everyone to see exactly where we stand
and how far we can call upon the loyalty of the House. If
such amendment should be moved and pressed to a division-I
say this for the information of countries abroad-those who
vote against the Government will not be assaulted with rubber
truncheons, or put into concentration camps, or otherwise
molested in their private lives. The worst that could happen
might be that they might have to offer some rather laborious
explanations to their constituents. Let it not be said that
parliamentary institutions are being maintained in this
country in a farcical or unreal manner. We are fighting for
parliamentary institutions. We are endeavouring to keep their
full practice and freedom, even in the stress of war.

In order that there may be no misunderstanding about the
basis on which this debate takes place, I must state that the
Government stand united as a corporate body, as a band of men
who have bound themselves to work together in special faith
and loyalty. There can be no question of any individual
ministers being singled out, by intrigue or ill-will, or
because of the exceptional difficulties of their tasks, and
being hounded down, in any Government over which I have the
honour to preside. From time to time the force of events
makes changes necessary, but none are contemplated at the
present moment. Neither do I consider it necessary to remodel
the system of cabinet government under which we are now
working, nor to alter in any fundamental manner the system by
which the conduct of the war proceeds, nor that by which
production of munitions is regulated and maintained.

The process of self-improvement is, of course,
continuous, and every man and woman throughout the land, in
office or out of office, in Parliament or in the cities and
municipalities of our country-everyone, great and small,
should try himself, by his conscience every day, to make sure
he is giving his utmost effort to the common cause. Making
allowance for the increase of population, we have reached, in
the 26th month of this war, and in some ways have surpassed,
the deployment of national effort at home, which after all
the slaughter, was not reached until the 48th month of the
last war. We cannot rest content with that, and if
Parliament, by patriotic and constructive counsel, and
without unduly harassing those who bear the load, can
stimulate and accelerate our further advance, the House of
Commons will be playing its part, unyielding, persevering,
indomitable, in the overthrow of another Continental tyranny
as in the olden times.