Against the Grain (DK)- FedEx St. Jude Classic

Whether its your first time reading, or you’re a seasoned vet, this article goes up and down the DraftKings or Fan Duel’s salary list, and talk about plays and strategies that could be “against the grain”. If you’re not a golfer, putting against the grain is the reference to the way a “green” is cut and if one is going “against the grain” your putting away from it.

Recap of Last Week’s Article: For the second week in a row, following #ATG could have paid some great dividends. My top play read, “listen I’m not saying fade DJ/Rahm BUT Spieth/Day is the better play”. That take was dead on. Not every week will going ATG work, but when it does we take it right? But let’s also be honest, when you’re wrong, you’re wrong, and in the next price category I couldn’t have been more wrong. I called for the fade of Dufner. Last two were Cantlay and Hoffman, and they both worked out in terms of a positive return on money invested.

Personal Draft Kings Results: In a matter of full transparency, I am going to post about my results weekly, and give you my top 4 owned guys across the board. If you’ve been following me since my days with Fantasy Golf Insider, you know it’s important that I implement some, if not all my suggested plays.

Core:

Fowler, Spieth, Mickelson, Scott, Cantlay, Day

Top Results:

A tough week for me as I bubbled the 5,300, and wasn’t able to hold onto my country club lead. I managed a 5th place finish in that contest, and an 8th in the weekend only 360.

DraftKings Contests This Week- DK scales it back this week with the weaker field and the week before a Major. Let’s see what is on the docket.

36 Up & Down 350K GTD- 150 max entry 50K first place.

$8 Best Ball 225K GTD- 25K First Place! 150 max entries.

$333 Club Pro 200K GTD – 30K first 20 entry max

$3 30K Birdie- 20 ENTRY MAX IS BACK! Double time. This one is first place of $1,500.

Player Focus: ***Note that just because a golfer is listed as part of the Game Theory Analysis does not mean that I am recommending playing them unless specified otherwise.***

$10,000 & Above: 5 golfers fit this category: Seems like this is the standard for DK now. Next week we get 7, but for now, let’s stay focused on the Fed Ex St. Jude.

Highest Owned: Mickelson – 25%

Lowest Owned: Scott- 15%

GTA (Game Theory Analysis): My first thought in this price category is that no one is talking about Adam Scott. I don’t know why. The guy is absolutely world class and is catering his game, and form, to peak around “Major” tournaments. The sweet swing Aussie has never played here at TPC Southwinds, at least in this tournament (my stats go back to 2006). The elite course history of lefty, and the fact that he’s 1,800 cheaper than Rickie and 1,300 less than Brooks makes him the most viable candidate for highest owned golfer of the week.

Top Play: Fowler at 12,000 is very expensive, especially the week before a Major. To get a return on your investment here he’s got to place in the top 5 of the tournament and score north of 110 points. He did play very well at the Shell Houston Open the week before The Masters, but at 12,000 my top play will be to UNDERWEIGHT Fowler in your lineups.

$9,999-$8,000: 11 golfers fit this category: Again with 11 golfers this week.

Our defending champion highlights this price category.

Projections:
Highest Owned: Kyle Stanley 20%

Lowest Owned: Brian Gay 10%

GTA: Well, Brain Gay has become somewhat of a DFS Darling in the past couple months as his game has seemed to find the form of old. Interesting enough he’s hasn’t been priced over 7K this year, and here he is priced over 8K. He has some spotty, but at times great, course history, being a past champion and 1 other top 10. However, he also has 3 missed cuts to go along with that first place and 6th place finish. Kyle Stanley is one of 5 guys playing this week that could still earn his way into next week’s field via a win here at the FedEx St.Jude. His stats line up incredibly well for this course, and with his overall good form from this year, I expect him to come in as the highest owned.

The Top Play: Daniel Berger. I’m going to take the reverse of our “Winning Element’s” strategy last week and play the past champ. At 9,300 Berger presents a fantastic opportunity to get you that 10K without winning. He’s scored over 81 DK points 4 times this year and only two top 10’s showing me that he can rack up DK points even if he doesn’t win. Oh, and his brother who I spoke to yesterday, said he is ready to win.

$7,999-$7,000: 50 golfers fit this category

Our first case of the WD’s in this price category as Bradley Stricker makes it a bit easier, or to some people, harder, on who to roster in this price category.

Projections:
Highest Owned: Kevin Tway 15%

Lowest Owned:Brett Stegmaier 2%

GTA: I actually thought Keegan and Stricker set up very well for this tournament, but they aren’t in the field so we have to move on. The first guy I want to talk about is the heir to the Acushnet Companies. Uihlein comes off a great performance at “The Memorial” placing 10th, earning himself another start this week. In between he did qualify for the US Open by winning a sectional qualifier in a playoff! We know he’s played a ton of golf recently,but we also know he doesn’t have status on this Tour so the limited starts he gets are very meaningful. It’ll be interesting to see where his ownership comes in. Harold Varner, Kevin Tway, and Ian Poulter will be the other 3 golfers that command a pretty high ownership in this price category and all three have merit to warrant it. Guys like Stegmaier/Barber/Campbell/Rodgers will go very low owned.

The Top Play: The first golfer I looked for price this week was Harold Varner. No, not because of his hole in one last week, but actually yes because of that and more. After looking into his stats a bit more, he led the field in the 150-175 yardage last week in terms of proximity to the hole, and even if you backed out the hole in one, he’d still have landed in the top 5. Match that with prior success here, 16th last year, and I like Varner to compete for his first PGA Tour title.

6,999 and Below-90 golfers fit this category.

Well DK for the 4th week in a row gives us a highly skilled, highly ranked, golfer priced very low.

Projections:

Highest Owned: JT the Postman

Lowest Owned: Per-Norm with this price category, there will be a ton of guys low owned.

GTA: Back to a normal deep dive price category, DK gives us just one lay up this week. JB Holmes, 47th ranked golfer in the world is priced lower, yup lower, than Brett Stegmaier. The theory and strategy has worked three straight weeks starting with Billy Horschel then Bill Haas and then last week Bubba Watson. I am not getting off this train, and because JB’s form hasn’t been the best lately, I expect you’ll even be able to get him at a pretty low ownership.

Whether you’re up building lineups now, or will be doing it tomorrow, we hope this info gives you “The Edge” Want to see more? Have Questions? Chat with me on Twitter @dfsgolfer23 or with anyone on the Tour Level team @dfsjimmie and @pgaedge @scottimac11 and @hump_bumgardner