Observers of the Portland mayor’s race have whined about
campaign tactics this year. But running for City Hall is like sipping
high tea at the Heathman Hotel compared with the brass-knuckle tactics
in the battle for control of the Oregon House.

Today, the Oregon
House is split in a historic 30-30 tie, and control by either party
after the Nov. 6 election will determine the fate of Gov. John
Kitzhaber’s agenda, including ongoing school and health-care reforms,
and a push to rewrite the state’s tax system.

The parties’ struggle
for both the House and Senate is always fraught, but the tie in the
House and other factors have made the 2012 races more fierce—and
expensive—than usual.

And the battle is
centered in the suburbs of Portland, where five freshman Republicans are
fighting to survive in districts with a Democratic edge in voter
registration.

Voters from
Hillsboro to Happy Valley, and from Tualatin to Fairview are seeing
mailers and TV spots that rip one candidate or the other.

The party that holds a
majority names the speaker—likely to be Rep. Tina Kotek (D-North
Portland) if Democrats succeed, or Rep. Bruce Hanna (R-Roseburg) if
Republicans triumph. (Last session, Hanna shared the speaker’s gavel
with Rep. Arnie Roblan, a Coos Bay Democrat, who is running for a Senate
seat this year.)

The speaker names committee chairs, who decide what bills get heard, and controls the flow of bills.

And any tax measure has to originate in the House—giving the speaker outsized influence over what course tax reform might take.

Both
caucuses are spending money at a record pace. The House Democratic
caucus has already eclipsed the $2 million it spent in 2010. Republicans
have also topped the $1.3 million they spent that year, when they
picked up six seats.

Republicans
are trying to get an edge by bringing up a 2009 measure, House Bill
3508, which shortened prison sentences for some criminals. Democrats who
pushed the measure through say the bill helped trim prison spending at a
time when the state’s revenues were falling dramatically.

But that explanation gets glossed over in campaign attacks aimed at portraying Democrats as soft on crime.

“Republicans are making a lot of hay on the 3508 vote,” says GOP political consultant Rob Kremer. “It’s very effective.”

For
their part, Democrats are first making sure voters know the Republicans
are Republicans—particularly in the closely contested metro-area
districts where registered Democrats outnumber Republicans.

To make matters worse
for the Republican incumbents, lawmakers redrew districts last year (as
they are required to do every decade). In two key districts, the result
left GOP rookies with fewer Republican voters.

That especially
matters in a presidential election year: In the past two presidential
contests, turnout has been 15 percentage points higher than in a midterm
election year, a phenomenon Democrats think will help them.

Blaming the GOP for inadequate school funding and for pushing tax breaks for corporations has been the Democratic approach.

“I
don’t think you have to work so hard to emphasize how the incumbents
haven’t done much to fund education,” says Jared Mason-Gere, a spokesman
for the House Democrats. “For us, it’s all about jobs and education
this time.”

Seven GOP House
members—including two metro-area first-termers—hit a strip club during a
three-day golfing vacation to Palm Springs in January.

One vulnerable
incumbent who went on the outing, Rep. Patrick Sheehan (R-Clackamas), is
depicted in an independent group’s TV ads with his eyes popping out
like one of Tex Avery’s cartoon wolves as he patronizes a strip club.

Bergstein, who has
seen his share of rough campaign seasons, says the attack ads will have
some effect on voters’ opinions. But, he says, in legislative races,
winners are often decided by more traditional methods.

“What it’s really
going to come down to on Election Day,” Bergstein says, “is blocking and
tackling—who can get their voters out.”

Six Races That Will Shake the House

The Oregon House stands at a 30-30 tie between Republicans
and Democrats. But Democrats see a chance to take control in this
election by targeting five incumbent GOP freshman legislators and one
open seat in the Portland area. Both political parties are zinging
negative ads, as are outside organizations, such as Oregon Right to
Life, and independent expenditure groups. In a couple of cases,
redistricting has helped the
Democrats’ chances. Here are the races most likely to decide control of the House:

House District 29 (Hillsboro, Forest Grove and Cornelius)

Oregon Right to Life papered the district with mailers featuring its old standby, pictures of an unborn fetus, to highlight the pro-choice position of Democrat Ben Unger. GOP Rep. Katie Eyre, an
accountant, hired a Texas campaign consultant who’s digging his spurs
into Unger, himself a political consultant, accusing him of being a carpetbagger who’s never held a real job.
Republicans sent Unger (and voters) a “happy anniversary card,” noting
it had been a year since Unger rented an apartment and moved back into
the district. (He actually grew up there.)

Democrats’ registration advantage: 7 points.

Change since 2010: Down 1.

House District 30(Hillsboro and North Plains)

Democrats have hammered GOP Rep. Shawn
Lindsay, an intellectual-property lawyer, for traveling to China on the
public dime and for chairing Mitt Romney’s
statewide campaign (no Dems did that). Lindsay’s opponent, retired
college professor Joe Gallegos, has never run before and therefore
doesn’t have many easily exploited vulnerabilities.

Democrats’ registration advantage: 6 points.

Change since 2010: Up 1.

House District 37(Tualatin and West Linn)

Republicans have a target-rich opponent
in Democrat Carl Hosticka, who seeks to unseat first-term Rep. Julie Parrish. Hosticka served in the House six terms representing Eugene and
spent the past 12 years as a councilor for Metro—which might as well be
the Taliban in parts of this district. Democrats have blasted Parrish
for her support of online charter schools and for a bizarre robo-calling
campaign aimed at inactive voters.

Democrats’ registration advantage: 1 point.

Change since 2010: None

House District 40 (Gladstone and parts of Milwaukie and Oregon City)

Republicans have smacked Democratic
candidate Brent Barton for supporting a 2009 bill to shorten some prison
sentences. They also tagged him as soft on crime for continuing to
support mayoral candidate Jefferson Smith after reports Smith punched a
woman 19 years ago. Democrats have pilloried Barton’s opponent, building
contractor Steve Newgard, for failing to pay his property taxes on
time. “District 40 might be the nastiest race,” says House Republicans
spokesman Nick Smith.

Democrats’ registration advantage: 8 points.

Change since 2010: Down 9.

House District 49 (Troutdale, Wood Village and Fairview)

With a big registration edge, Democrats
should own this seat. Dems have noted that first-term incumbent Matt
Wand (R-Troutdale) took big checks from the banking industry and voted
for tax cuts for corporations and millionaires. Republicans have called
challenger Chris Gorsek soft on crime and weak on school funding—despite
his work experience as a former cop and current instructor at Mt. Hood
Community College.

Democrats’ registration advantage: 14 points.

Change since 2010: Down 1.

House District 51

(Clackamas and parts of Happy Valley)

Rep. Pat Sheehan was one of seven GOP
members who made a highly publicized January visit to a California strip
joint—as an eye-popping TV ad paid for by unknown donors through
independent expenditures reminds voters. Sheehan’s opponent, first-time
candidate Shemia Fagan, is feeling the heat from Oregon Right to Life,
which, as in the House District 29 race, delivered mailers with pictures
of fetuses to attack Fagan for her support of women’s reproductive
rights.