The Warriors Confront Life After Love

After weeks of “sources” and speculation, there was finally some real news on the Kevin Love beat — and it wasn’t good news for the Warriors. On Tuesday, the Cleveland Cavaliers orchestrated a reverse salary-dump with the Utah Jazz, buying relatively small, non-guaranteed contracts that could be sent to Minnesota as trade ballast in a deal for the Wolves’ much longed-for power forward. A day earlier, the Cleveland announced that they are close to signing Andrew Wiggins — a necessary step in shipping him out for Love, since the Cavs need his salary on the books to balance the deal. There’s still time for things to change, particularly since Wiggins can’t be dealt for 30 days after signing his deal. But the Warriors’ future is looking increasingly Loveless.

If the rumored Wiggins, Bennet and a 1st round pick for Love, Martin and/or Barea deal eventually happens, the Warriors can take solace in the fact that they likely couldn’t beat the offer — even if they had opted to offer Klay Thompson. Would a deal have been possible had the Warriors offered Thompson before the draft or LeBron’s return to Cleveland? Maybe — but given Minnesota’s relentless push to extract top value for Love, it’s entirely possible Flip would have waited on that deal as well. And had LeBron stayed in Miami, the Warriors’ Lee/Barnes/pick offer very well could have been the top of the market. While we still have months before the season starts to debate the “what ifs” of hypothetical Love deals, the more relevant conversation is now how much the Warriors have improved with the moves they actually made.

Kerr vs. Jackson — The most significant change so far in the Warriors’ 2014 off-season is also the hardest to analyze. We know all too well about Jackson’s failings (and strengths) as a coach, but Kerr is still a great unknown (yes, even after coaching a bunch of players that won’t be on the active roster in the Vegas summer league). My guess is the most dramatic changes under Kerr come on the offensive end, with the team breaking free from its league-worst ranking on touches per possession in favor of a more fluid offense. That change alone — if it comes to pass — is likely worth a few more wins next season. The Warriors suffered last season through long patches of offensive futility. If Kerr can find a way to avoid those through better ball movement and a more aggressive tempo, the Warriors’ offense should be a more consistently devastating attack. Not sold yet on Kerr as an upgrade? At least you can take some comfort in the assistant coach comparison, where the swap of Pete Myers and Lindsey Hunter for Alvin Gentry and Ron Adams is a LeBron-to-Cleveland type coup.

Livingston vs. Blake — The Warriors’ biggest bench failing was obvious all last season, and Bob Myers struck out on three attempts to fix it. The Warriors started the year with Toney Douglas, but his lack of offense was crippling. The next attempt to find a floor general wasn’t much of an improvement, with Jordan Crawford’s tweener instincts leading to plenty of white-knuckle possessions. At the trade deadline, the Warriors had a multi-million dollar trade exception that they could have used to bring in a more talented rotation player. Instead, they went the budget route with Steve Blake — and largely got what they paid for. While Blake undoubtedly suffered from Jackson’s system (or lack thereof), he was a marginal player on the downslope of his career. The underwhelming results weren’t too shocking given what the team had to work with — although the Warriors’ decision to let another trade exception expire makes you wonder what could have been in the Clippers series and beyond had they opted to make a bigger splash at least year’s deadline. But all that is in the past, and Myers seems to have learned from his failures. Shaun Livingston was a quality starter for the Nets last season in Deron Williams’ absence. He brings true point guard skills, Curry-compatible size and some much needed post offense for the Warriors’ outside-oriented attack. For the first time since Jarrett Jack departed, the Warriors have someone on the bench they can trust to run the offense. His steady hand should help the Warriors avoid the slumps they slogged through last season with Jackson’s bench-mob hockey substitutions. The minutes Livingston will log at the 1 should have a positive ripple effect throughout the rotation.

Rush vs. Crawford — You could easily write this comparison as “Rush vs. ?” because it’s not clear who the Warriors used as a back-up shooting guard last season. Thompson was an iron man, playing the vast majority of the minutes at the two. When he went to the bench, Curry often swung over to play off the ball. Barnes and Iguodala occasionally logged minutes, but neither was a good fit. If you’re going to give the title to anyone, it probably goes to Crawford, who brought the shoot-first mentality you’d expect from the position. In swapping Crawford for Rush, the Warriors exchange erratic volume for controlled efficiency. The pre-injury Rush was a two-way player who knew his role and shot a blistering .501 from the field and .452 from behind the arc in his last full season. The post-injury Rush hasn’t come anywhere close to those numbers, but after getting his legs back last season, there’s reason for optimism. If Rush can play steady defense and knock down open threes, he’ll be a nice replacement for Crawford. If Rush can regain any of his explosiveness to be the slasher he once was, he’ll be a low-risk/high-reward steal for the Warriors. This move won’t be a game-changer move, but it still addresses a glaring weakness.

Barnes vs. Barnes — After all the hype surrounding the potential Love trade, it will be easy to feel like this off-season has been a let-down without any impact moves for the Warriors. Those types of off-seasons are inevitably met with the old “internal development” mantra from the team. But if Harrison Barnes can regain the form he showed in the 2012-13 playoffs, there may be some truth to that well-worn rationalization. Kerr has talked repeatedly about the need for a stretch four. Barnes was that player against the Nuggets and the Spurs, spreading the floor with threes, crashing the boards and slashing to the basket. His Spurs series averages of 17.3 points and 7.3 rebounds are mind-boggling given how disengaged he looked last season. Jackson refused to give him major minutes in that role again, but the new regime should bring new opportunities. If Barnes can become a consistent contributor — either as a stretch four or a better-used three — it’ll not only help the Warriors’ bench, but give them a valuable young and cheap asset to potentially deal at the trade deadline.

Iguodala vs. Iguodala — Last season, Iguodala’s defense and unselfishness made him the often unnoticed glue that held the Warriors together. But when the Warriors signed him to an eight-figure-a-year deal, they were looking for more than a glue guy. Kerr’s offense should benefit Iguodala as much as anyone. An emphasis on pushing the tempo will get him more fast-break opportunities. A modified triangle offense will play to his high basketball IQ. Improved bench scoring from Livingston and Rush should take off some of the pressure and defensive attention when Iguodala’s playing with the second unit. After turning in his lowest scoring total since his rookie campaign, I’m expecting a bit of a bounce-back year (hamstrings willing).

Ezeli vs. O’Neal — This final comparison is hopefully one the Warriors can avoid. It would be great to have both Ezeli and O’Neal back next season. One brings an athletic, youthful presence; the other savvy, veteran inspiration. As a two-headed back-up center, they give you lots of flexibility. But if O’Neal is done, the pressure falls on Ezeli to regain his health and build upon his rookie campaign. Ezeli’s defense has already proven to be NBA ready. And as a smart and relatively mobile player, there’s no reason that Ezeli couldn’t be successful in a more structured offense. Like Rush, he’s unlikely to make a major impact, but he still fills a hole from last season.

Assuming Love is lost, the Warriors need to get on with their lives. They were 6 games back from the Clippers last season and 3 games back from home-court advantage in the first round. Can the additions of Kerr, Livingston and Rush and improved years from Barnes, Iguodala and Ezeli bridge that gap? Maybe, but the rest of the West is improving as well. If there’s no impact move on the horizon, the Warriors would be well served to fill out their remaining roster spots with young assets that can be developed into potential add-ins or replacement parts should a blockbuster trade deadline deal roll around. Guys like Al-Farouq Aminu or Chris Douglas-Roberts may not be glamorous names, but they still have upside that could be developed in the right system. The best teams find guys whose contributions exceed their acquisition price — whether in terms of draft order or contract price. Klay Thompson (on his current contract), Draymond Green and even Stephen Curry all fit that model. Acquiring Love while keeping Thompson would be an all-time low-cost steal. But if dreams of Love are finally done, Bob Myers will need to look elsewhere to turn nearly nothing into something.

Adam Lauridsen

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In my view, the W’s have been exactly right in keeping the “window” open for Love—and not foreclosing it in advance.

But necessarily the long drawn-out waiting has cost them something in terms of timing. If Love had not been a possibility at all, I could easily have seen Myers going simultaneously after both Livingston and someone like Gasol.

It’s why I’m interested in speculations about the valuation-arc of the remaining time in Lee’s contract. I wouldn’t imagine a tit-for-tat direct trade of Lee for another starting PF. But I could imagine the W’s “fishing” for the right lateral trade—either a 3-way or in steps—that off-loaded Lee’s contract (in time—whatever that needed time happens to prove to be) while in a related, if not direct, way also bringing back what I’m calling a serviceable “stopgap.”

But “stopgap” isn’t maybe the right word. For instance (to take a high, high example)…Splitter starts for the Spurs. He’s vital…even though it was Diaw who actually was most instrumental/”valuable” in shaking up the dynamic of (first) the OKC series and then the championship series.

So Splitter doesn’t fit “stopgap”—and yet he’s not the home-run/answer that Love would be as a starting PF.

I’m not saying the W’s will/could get their own “Splitter”—or at least not ASAP.

But I’m saying that as with Diaw, so with Green and Barnes—if you’re not able to get a home-run as a starting PF, you still might be able to find a really helpful guy who contributes something important and maybe even unique to the mix, different (and less expensive) elements than Lee in his prime, but valuable nonetheless.

In other words, the equivalent of a “Livingston” at PF.

I don’t know who that exactly might be (and who could be available in a lateral or 3-way trade—a defender, a banger, a rebounder. Someone (again, like Livingston) who might play mid-20’s mpg, but who (unlike Livingston) would start.

I have ALOT of confidence in Green and Barnes as backup stretch-4’s. If the home-run for Love can’t happen, then I think the right journeyman (in the non-pejorative sense of that word) could work out well. This is a damn good rotation.

For me…the Love question really was/is a rotation question. No reason to hold your hands-back in your appreciation of Love.

deano

We have 30 days, at least, to wait for Minny’s reaction to the rumored offers from Chicago and Cleveland. We also have to wait for Love’s response. Will he commit to an extension with either or both of those teams? I do not think that can be assumed. Would those teams trade for him even without his commitment to an extension? In Cleveland’s case, that would mean that Love and LeBron would both be on one-year deals. The dust has not yet settled.

TV Fan

I think all of these improvements are possible but I want to focus for a moment on Lee vs Lee. As a non-athletic baller myself, I really appreciate his effort. He’ll never be a great defender but he holds his own against the NBA’s best “non-athletic” PF’s.

I’m excited to hear Lee’s changed his mid-range/3 pt shot mechanics. The man can shoot. I think last season was an aberration. A good shooter doesn’t just lose his shot like he did with his mid-range last year. Something was wrong either with his mechanics or health wise. He might not hit career highs this season, but I am hopeful his mid-range will be back to normal. That should be enough to create the stretch Kerr is looking for.

The only part of his game I don’t understand is the lack of pump faking at the rim. If he just worked on that, he’d at a minimum get to the line 2 more times per game. (note: I want to see more fouls called in our favor this year. I’m tired of complaining about NBA refs. Pump fakes by Lee could help the situation).

Believewhat

I can bet bulls defense won’t get worse of they get Love. After all, even with Boozer Bulls have been top defensive team under Thibs.

Believewhat

Sartre, despite the nagging injuries you mentioned, starters missing so few games is rare, think only Portland had better luck with injuries. We were lucky that both Lee+Bogut played so many games and together in reg season. Yes, most players were not 100%, but think most teams would take dubs luck with injuries last year.

sartre

Green and Diaw are two of my favorite players. Such guys are always relatively underpaid and undervalued but make a disproportionate contribution to team success.

I have no problem with Green as a bu stretch-4 and I think he has already amply demonstrated his worth in that role (despite MJ’s seeming blindness to the fact until relatively late in the piece). I’m ever hopeful but I’m holding off on assuming anything with Barnes after his decline last season. I agree that the right parts can be used interchangeably to cover a position well even if each is not necessarily consistently of prime starter quality. I don’t know how feasible it is that Myers could make that kind of three way deal to return sufficient stopgap value for Lee but it seems like an excellent goal.

Zume

Off topic summer break in honor of Coltraning. I am attempting to listen and appreciate Jazz. I loved this on NPR today –
Wynton Marsalis playing “When The Saints Go Marching In”. I believe this is Jazz but may be wrong.

Any other similar Jazz pieces that are recommended out there would be very much welcomed by this learner.
Peace to all here

dunkin boguts

I’ve seen Wynton play. Amazing!!!!

Jason

Let it go.

Chris L

1. I’ve mentioned this before—but I’ll hereby christen it the “stage-by-stage divestment plan.” I’m not a #’s guy—so someone else (who cares) would need to check if it works in terms of the cap.

— re-sign Klay? Divest Lee’s contract no later than Klay’s new contract counts against the cap.

— sign Love + Klay? Divest Iguoudala no later than Klay’s and Love’s (new) contracts kick-in (***caveat: or now we’re in the territory when paying the lux tax is worthwhile)

— re-sign Green (but didn’t get Love)? Divest Iguoudala’s contract. (Although, again, the W’s by then could well be in the territory where paying the lux tax is justifiable.)

2. I’ll be surprised (and disappointed) if the Barnes of 2014-5 doesn’t relatively quickly return to his end-of-rookie-year play…and then build from there. No hard evidence. Lots of inferential reasons to bet that way (his hard work and active willingness to improve; last year’s abysmal lack of coaching; Kerr’s and West’s accurate perceptions about the problem(s); Ron Adams and a legitimate “teaching” staff.

3. Green as more-than a backup stretch-4—but wonderful in that role as well.

Camelot

For folks who miss the Sonics- game on classics-Stern couldn’t fix that problem..

chris
Thanks for the kind words my friend. I’ve always wanted to run the Big Sur Marathon but was never quite able to prepare. I’m trying the Finger Lakes Wineglass Half Marathon in October.& at 71 GT is just wanting to finish.

NCDub

marc
Great rationale, shared by many here including yours truly, of the reasons not to trade for Love with Klay included. I’ve always felt that Lee/Barnes/pick was the way to go as well–providing a great triple threat.. Always loved TM too. And Russ was a man for the ages. Thanks..

For those who want to save themselves the extra-step of the click-through, here’s the salient passage from Meschery that Marc and NCDub reference…

“But the Warriors will lose too much if they add Klay Thompson to the package. A franchise can’t trade away a backcourt of Curry and Thompson that is the envy of the their opponents and their opponents’ biggest headache. Every team’s first consideration and consternation when playing the Warrriors is how to deal with the SPLASH BROTHERS. If you add Love to that powerful duo, the headache becomes a migraine. Eliminate Thompson and add Love, and things just return to headache mode. I grant that Love will add a defensive rebounding component to the Warriors that would help, but with the absence of Thompson the team loses an important backcourt defender, and the way the league looks today, controlling backcourt penetration is essential.”

NCDub

deano
Feel that he’d commit to the Dubs & we’d then get him for Lee/Barnes/pick–which has been reasonable all along given his stated preference to play with Steph, Klay et al. At the end of the day it just might be all Minny can achieve. It’s all in Love’s hands. Still even w/o him these Dubs are pretty good.

NCDub

believe
Don’t quite agree–Bogut’s down time was hugely debilitating for the Dubs.

NCDub

surf
I’m a Klay-keeper and I’ve been for some time as you know & I’ve projected him as a future all star as well as 1/3 of a terrific guard trio (including Shaun). Also prefer Klay’s team-ball philosophy to that of Love who’s more of a complainer as I see it plus being pretty much of a one-way player.

sartre

I’ve had that privilege as well and highly recommend seeing him perform live.

NCDub

chris
JON’s not a starter but in a limited role he could sure help…as he’s already done so well until legit help arrives.

jsl165

And a major part of team D is getting back and in position in transition.

Love was protected somewhat by playing with Minny’s few worthwhile guys, but he was inexcusable in transition defense.

NCDub

jsl
Ditto.

strummer

Zume, I saw WM just a few months ago when he came to town to play at the SF Jazz Center (Miner Auditorium) with the Jazz at Lincoln Center Orchestra. It was great, though i was bummed that I had just missed the concert in which Duke Ellington’s music was featured.
The Duke is my all time favorite (my father was a jazz piano player, who also wrote liner notes for many a jazz album and was a Duke admirer through and through. I was lucky to have been raised in a household that had Ellington playing all the time, either LPs on the stereo or live on the piano in the living room, and i too fell under his spell).
If you are looking for more jazz of the accessible kind, try Duke Ellington’s 70th Birthday Concert double album, which contains some great versions of some of his most beloved tunes (‘Rocking In Rhythm’ is killer…as it builds and builds and then that crescendo peaks, words cannot do justice to its power and swing).
…and do try and catch a show at Miner Auditorium, a truly wonderful concert space designed specifically for jazz, that we are very very lucky to have in our neck of the woods.

Funny you mentioned Coltraning, for this morning as I was reading the blog, i too thought of him. Miss that cat…

Tired

I would love to watch those practices. And we could once and for all settle the issue of whether Love can or will defend.
Could it blow up in their face?

Tired

Not much of a recommendation.

Tired

Lol. Good one.

Chris L

That’s been a crucial (and unknowable) question for me all along. I know Love hasn’t defended…but does that mean he WON’T (at least try)?

Thibodeau must be betting that he will…and even that circumstantial evidence counts for something.

I remember the apocryphal stories of the first time Donyell Marshall walked into his new team’s locker-room (Utah).

Sloan was actually the least difficult rung for ‘Onyell in that gauntlet. Even to get to Sloan, Donyell first had to deal with Stockton and Malone.

Chris L

No requirement to ramble. But also no courtesy to manufacture and mis-attribute false #’s.

Tired

You have absolutely no idea what Myers is doing. You don’t think he and the others have weighed all these possibilities?
You also have no idea what a fact is.
Not making a lot of sense here.

Tired

So you say.
The so called ‘market’ doesN’t always hold in the NBA.
But then you know everything.
Lol

sartre

I very much hope you’re right about Lee’s shooting revival. I’m more skeptical because the marked decline in his jump shot efficiency has progressed over the past two seasons and also because he was reportedly working on making his mid-range jump shot automatic and adding 3-point range during the last off-season.

Tired

OMG
Lol

Well, excuse us. We didn’t know we were in the presence of such a master of economics.

Chris L

No, pass your own pipe, Bob…

…whatever it is that gets you to add up to 71 that way.

Tired

Excellent post.
Love is just a big bundle of woulda coulda shouldas.

Tired

This guy is a moron.
And a mind reader, apparently.
And very full of himself.
Lol

sartre

I think this coming season will tell us a great deal about Barnes’ likely upside. Barnes showed enough in his rookie season to suggest he could be a much better player than last season’s version. Despite all the mitigation (including likely persistent turf toe) it was still disheartening to see him flounder so strikingly.

Tired

Excellent post

SurfCity

Zume, glad you are getting interested in jazz. Yes, that is definitely a style of jazz: New Orleans jazz to be precise. That song is the most requested song by tourists to New Orleans.

If you like that style, then you should listen to the original though — Louis Armstrong, just to compare.

Ken Burns did a multipart documentary on jazz which approaches the subject historically. If you watch that, you’ll end up with a pretty good understanding of what the art form has been, and you’ll hear a lot of the greats along the way.

GoldenState1stRoundExit

Kyrie Irving and Lebron James are natural slashers. Kevin Love is clearly the best stretch four in the league. David Blatt is seen as a mastermind coach who cares about both sides of the court. Cavaliers signed sharp shooters Mike Miller and Ray Allen. They can replicate Spurs offense.

Cavaliers going all out while Warriors chasing that 4th-5th seed and 1st or 2nd round exit. They don’t care about winning a title, they just want to sell a lot of tickets at the Oracle. Shame they bought into their own “Splash Brothers” hype. Shame we passed on a superstar in Kevin Love because we wanted to keep a soon to be overpaid Danny Gree—Errrrr I mean Klay Thompson.

strummer

Cool that the whole league buys into it though…

NCDub

rick
I have recorded the entire series on discs & can vouch for it’s presentation & content–great sounds. Great history lesson. Great gifys to our culture & our enjoyment. Reminds one of col.

nelliebiggestfan

I still haven’t seen anyone outside of this blog agree that swapping MJ for kerr will mean more wins for the w’s this year. It’s a players league not a coaches league. This is setting up great for an MJ to kerr comparison since it looks like the roster won’t change a lot. Kerr will have to install the new system and win 3 out of every 4 games at the same time. The risk is that all these new coaches will overcoach the team and the players will freeze up with all the new stuff they will have to remember. The advantage of flow coaching is that you let the players play. I expect kerr to play small a lot to keep the offense going. He wants a stretch 4 lineup so that means green and barnes at PF quite a bit. But it makes no sense to cut the minutes of your 15 million dollar PF who is a 20/10 machine. The best way to max out this team is to have Lee and not ezeli be your primary backup center. With lee at center for 20 MPG that leaves plenty of minutes at PF for Green or Barnes. Even if Kerr does the right thing and plays a lot of smallball this still is not a top 4 WC team. I predicted 47 or 48 wins last year and MJ overachieved with his coaching. This year I expect the w’s will fall back to that original 47 or 48 win level.

NCDub

nbf
I agree this is not yet a top WC4–unless a lot comes together & bad luck is mostly avoided. I’ve no doubt though that we’re headed in the right direction for the first time in almost 20 years. So smiles all around, kudos too & GoDubs. A ring is in their future.

I yi yiyi

new handle old troll

NCDub

sartre
He was also terrific on those teach the kids how to play TV shows of a few years ago. Wow what a great job–not to forget how many littles he got into the jazz mode. He made a difference–would that we all could say the same.

NCDub

strum
Me too-how’d I forget that piece. He might even be able to mentor a few guys’ FT’s w/o his crazy motion of course. (smile)