The Second Edition of Critical Thinking for Strategic Intelligence provides a basic introduction to the critical thinking skills employed within the intelligence community. This easy-to-use handbook is framed around twenty key questions that all analysts must ask themselves as they prepare to conduct research, generate hypotheses, evaluate sources of information, draft papers, and ultimately present analysis. Drawing upon their decades of teaching and analytic experience, Katherine Hibbs Pherson and Randolph H. Pherson have updated the book with useful graphics that diagram and display the processes and structured analytic techniques used to arrive at the best possible analytical product.

List of Tables, Figures, and Boxes

Foreword

Preface

About the Authors

Introduction to the Second Edition

Introduction

Part I. How Do I Get Started?

1. Who Are Your Clients?

2. What Are the Key Questions?

3. What Is the Broader Context for the Analysis?

4. How Should I Conceptualize My Product?

5. What Is My Analytic Approach?

6. Can Collaboration Contribute to a Better Answer?

Part II. Where Is the Information I Need?

7. How Do Models Help My Analysis?

8. What Types of Information Are Available?

9. Can I Trust the Sources?

10. How Should I Assess the Reliability of Internet Information?

Part III. What Is My Argument?

11. Are My Key Assumptions Well-Founded?

12. Can I Make My Case?

13. Did I Consider Alternative Hypotheses?

14. How Do I Deal With Politicization?

15. How Might I Be Spectacularly Wrong?

Part IV. How Do I Convey My Message Effectively?

16. Is My Argument Persuasive?

17. How Should I Portray Probability, Levels of Confidence, and Quantitative Data?

“Critical Thinking for Strategic Intelligence is engaging, easy to read and understand, and provides support for the needed learning objectives. Additionally, these readings highlight the role and value of critical thinking in the intelligence process. The “Key Takeaways” sections are a great way to summarize the learning for the individual chapters. I could see it useful in discussion of the intelligence community, intelligence analysis, and the critical thinking skills required for many other courses.”

Scott Winegar

Concordia University

“Critical Thinking for Strategic Intelligence does an excellent job of teaching college students how to look at an issue; they figure out what is needed, find and evaluate information sources, and then put it all together in a coherent product which has facts, assumptions, implications, and conclusions. The book makes all these processes clearly identified.”

Kenneth Stiles

Virginia Tech University

“Critical Thinking for Strategic Intelligence is easy to read and presents complex technical information in a format which is engaging and easy to follow. I love the marriage of theory and practice, including the exercises like the analysis of case studies which shows the student what a real analyst does and what that process looks like.”

Mary Manjikian

Regent University

“With Critical Thinking for Strategic Intelligence, Kathy and Randy have continued to make significant contributions to the development of the profession of Intelligence Analysis. Their work has been focused on improving the skills and the professionalism of the practitioner. They have through their consulting, their training, and their publications set a standard for all of us to follow who are committed to the same goals. Their model is impressive.”

Dit Talley

John Hopkins University

"Pherson & Pherson’s Critical Thinking for Strategic Intelligence is the best example of applying critical thinking I've ever found. The book actually provides the "how to" do the things formatted according to the phases of the intelligence cycle other books present conceptually."

Dighton (Mac) Fiddner

Indiana University of Pennsylvania

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Katherine Hibbs Pherson

Katherine Hibbs Pherson, President of Globalytica, LLC, consults with government and private industry on building strong analytic communities, the use of structured analytic techniques, and security issues. She teaches certificate courses on structured thinking and presentation for the security association ASIS International and in the Intelligence Masters program at Universidad Rey Juan Carlos in Madrid, Spain. As Vice Chair of the Intelligence and National Security Association (INSA)’s Security Policy Reform Council, she was primary drafter of its white paper titled “Next Steps for... More About Author

Randolph H. Pherson

Randolph H. Pherson is president of Pherson Associates, LLC; CEO of Globalytica, LLC; and a founding director of the nonprofit Forum Foundation for Analytic Excellence. He teaches advanced analytic techniques and critical thinking skills to analysts in the government and private sector. Mr. Pherson collaborated with Richards Heuer Jr. in developing and launching use of Analysis of Competing Hypotheses, and he developed several analytic techniques for the CIA’s Sherman Kent School, many of which were incorporated in his Handbook of Analytic Tools and Techniques. He coauthored Critical Thinking for Strategic Intelligence with Katherine Hibbs... More About Author