The importance of admitting you were wrong. I was wrong. Sorry.

I have changed my background, I realized the full white one just blasts the human eye. Better go for something more easy on the eyes.
I have to make a 180° on my previous bear position. In the trading & investing world, it is important to realize you were wrong and stay humble.
If you don't, that's when you end up destroying your account. From what I saw I believed it very likely we drop all the way to 3500 before going to a bull market.
I don't know if I said this exactly, but I at least might have led people to believe this.

I was wrong. This is not likely. I zoomed out and saw what was happening around me, and I now strongly believe I was wrong.

I am a bear no more. Believing we are going to reproduce 2014 crash and bounce on whatever trendline because it "looks similar" is stupid (I already posted an idea about this).
I have now turned to an Orca. You know, the second biggest predator on the planet, and the most cruel animal on the planet, they love to torture their prey for hours before eating it.

It's over. Bubble is about to pop.

I will first show the graph for the short term. I guess that's what we're going to do, but that doesn't matter, I will next show what will happen long term.
And it is not pretty. There's going to be blood in the streets and I'm not speaking metaphorically.

A death cross will happen tonight, unless the bulls can push the price to 17000$. There's probably some of them that think it's possible.

I also forgot to show the weekly MA 10, yet another resistance in the area. We are still following the usual bubble pattern and it's looking like 2014, I just think this time it will be worse. I'll explain later. There's so much data I don't know if I can throw it out all at once.

I wanted to say, at my workplace there's this programmer guy, midly shy guy, just your average programmer I guess, back in early december when I started working closer to him he was pretty euphoric alwyas smiling laughing and extroverted I was wondering why he liked me so much gay or something?
Well he started isolating himself 2 months ago "to focus on work" and complaining more and more and working long hours, and now, haven't seen him for 3 weeks he's having "medical" issues. After the double top to 11k when we went down he started being isolated and below 9k that's when he just vanished.
I guess he's one of the victims. I hope for his health we crash soon? I guess? So he can sell, lose his money maybe, but at least he's free.
Or maybe he sold and then bought back in on the "back to normal".

In a while, we will get the suicide stories, the divorces and homeless people, there will be a ton of them.
People are extremely stupid. The more something goes up, the more idiots put everything they have in and get lucky, the more the next people will put in.
There has already been suicides.
But it will get worse. Much, much worse. South Korea is going to be a bloodbath. Their "millenial" population was already deep in shit, but boy oh boy it's going to get worse.
They thought crypto was the miracle magical thing that will give every one free magical money. It will end up being hell. Their doom.
I'm betting on hundred of suicides at the VERY LEAST.

ONE thing can save the bagholders now. A very evil person or group with alot of money that pumps crypto (not even sure it'll work out) to scam at a higher price, more people. It would end even more badly... But if they get caught what would happen to them would be worse than Mussolini Ghadaffi or 'Abd al-Ilah from Iraq.

Let's zoom out and see where we are now:

We have visited the long term investor average buy price twice, just like in 2014, and they have supported Bitcoin . The second time, we dug deep and found very strong support, bounced 100% to a double top (again).
I will continue in an update.

評論:
If (when you mean...) we lose the support of the long term investors (people want to break even when it goes down just read the Korea interviews of 20 year olds that are just "waiting to break even then I get out"), the next level we have to look at will be the super long term. Not sure many people outside of institutions look at that.

Ah, the "big boys". One of the big argument the bagholders have is "wall street money will pour in and make us rich because they don't want to miss out".
Wall street knows the future according to them (most hedge fund managers are garbage but got lucky once btw... and don't get lucky a second time), BUT these "big boys" don't know how to buy without moving the price?
They aren't capable of hedging their position with shorts?
In the stock market world, major players HAVE to make an announcement and let people know when they open huge short positions.
Not in the crypto world. Doesn't mean it doesn't happen.
They start buying lots of bitcoins and short at the same time, win on both sides.
The money they lose as BTC price goes down, they win in their shorts...
Here, bulls argument is donzo.

Magical money does not exist, nothing is free.
I'm wondering if the Bitcoiners that bought at 150$ and shilled it they swore to people if they buy at 15k and Hold no matter what they'll be rich, will these guys end up beaten to death?

Ok so what bottom could we expect? Either 1000-ish at the low of the long long term investors average buy, or if we go below that I got nothing solid.
Since crypto has no fundamental value and is full of speculators, we can expect it to follow TA very well, as it has till now. So here:

I enjoy playing video games, so I'll keep trading this, but I can't recommend any coin, shitcoin or "major" one.
There's just one I'd consider buying (it's a secret which one).

Every one is expecting 3000 to be bottom. I think they'll be surprised.
Good night hodlers.

Oh and since things always go in 3 waves (2011 no one believes BTC gets insta dumped 2013 some believe 2017 total mania every one loses their mind think BTC is greater than banks governments god - 90% of the population uses "aaaa" as a password yet they think crypto can go replace bank accounts and gold lmao), in 2014 we visited the support area thrice and third time people thought "ok I'm not falling for it but I don't want to miss out i'll wait and see if BTC bounces" it did not so they started selling and we feeeeell, 2018 same stuff, we're in that area for the third time we are not out yet, how long till they decide to sell?

I could go on for days on end, but i think this is enough info for now.

評論:
More zoomed in, we are now in the area of the mid term investors, this is their average buy price the past 30 to 60 days.

If you want to learn more about how we can use these moving averages to understand buyers/sellers, I recommend reading Daryl Guppy books or at least watching some videos. This is gold.

To understand how they think, look at research on dopamine (feel good) as well as feel bad and stress (cortisol) hormones.

To sum up, mouse (and people) would do anything to get that feel good dopamine, even hurt themselves. And buying crypto in december made them feel very good.
Now, dopamine levels dropped, and cortisol is high. The human body cannot endure months of high cortisol and sleep deprivation. At some point they won't even care about the money anymore.

When you understand all this stuff, it all becomes much more clear.

But let's see what happens around these resistances and supports.

I'll short BTC till it hits the ground, but I'm trading smaller moves, and going long on supports.
If I see from the chart an indication buyers have shown up, I'll be way less ambitious on my shorts that's all. And look for bigger % gains on my longs.

You can't go wrong if you long on supports and short on resistance (just not the second or 3rd time they get tested... strong probability they're going to break at that point).

Oh by the way I got banned 3 days. While the ban was questionnable at best, I was looking for a fight.
I wonder if psychologically I don't want these people to anger me so I don't feel as much remorse and don't feel sorry for what's about to happen to them, plus I can always say I tried to warn them. Maybe I have a shred of humanity left after all...

評論:
Proposing a new way to separate market cycles in phases.

Appears to be going 3 times as fast <3

評論:
GG I did it. I found something that told me how many buyers and sellers there has been.
I'm done. All of your secrets are belong to us.
We're far from the bottom, very very far eksdee.

If we magically go up... The moment they sell... dayum from 100k to 50 bucks :'D

評論:
Because MtGox closed and Finex wasn't around long enough, it's hard to tell from BTC data only how many BTC have to get sold to get to the bottom.
I'm only hoping we don't get 3 months of low volume equilibrium or slighlty more buying that selling I'm in a trade on BTC now my capital is frozen XD
Geez.
I wonder if there's alot of information we can pull out of this...

評論:
I'm such a nice guy sharing all this for free, please don't lynch me because I shorted BTC.

評論:
I feel this is necessary:

評論:
So we are not in 2013.
And BTC 1 million? What about other crypto's?
Crypto mcap 50 trillion? Ok why not. Where does the money come from?
Stock market? So I can buy Amazon for 10 bucks?
Cool, have your shit crypto, I'll buy gigantic companies for the price of a sandwich...

The whole human race will use this awesome technology greater than jesus instead of their bank accounts? When the most used password is "aaa" been trying for decades to teach them how to use passwords lol. They can't even remember where their D*** is.

#Logic

評論:
Someone in the comment said it was unrealistic that we lose the trendline now. Even below 5k is.
I don't see why. Here is why we can't keep that line forever:

To keep growing exponentially at such an absurb rate, we're going to need a gigantic wave of new investors.
Crypto got worldwide even governments got in, you need 10, maybe 100, maybe even more, times that, for it to grow more. There's probably 5% of the world that got involved. All the millenial hipsters are in by now right?
WHO is going to get in? There's not enough idiots in the whole world.
Not even going to bother commenting on the "institutional investors" comment.

The only way price goes up is those with money, either wall street as we say, or those that joined early enough and sold high, will buy back in massively, pump the price and dump again on new baggies, but it will only go as far as all the broke idiots in the world will push it, and that's not 1 million. Only gets there with insitutional money.

I am super bear now, but if we somehow manage to keep the trendline and the ponzi forms a new wave (by then Satoshi and the Ripple guy are the 2 richest men in the history of mankind and can crush the planet), I will become an ascended bear to the next level. I'll be "hysteric".

I hope, for the sake of the public, this is as far as the ponzi will go.

Awww after the apocalypse BTC probably gets abandonned, sad, wasn't such a bad idea. Without human greed and stupidity would have been nice, like Riot points to buy ingame content, but for the whole internet.

評論:
"All Ponzi schemes eventually collapse, of course, when sufficient amounts can no longer be raised from new investors to pay off earlier investors.

The same will occur with bitcoin and all other cyber currencies, except perhaps the ICOs. Investors will pull back from buying cyber currencies, causing their prices to begin a sustained decline.

That downward spiral will accelerate as cyber-currency “investors” try to bail out before prices plunge even more."

Not sure 2018 is the year this happens, but we had 5 waves. I think it's certainly possible. It went mainstream. Without sharks manipulating the price it won't get new investors. If sharks come in to rip off the public that's still interested in buying cheap, I'll keep trading it, otherwise I'll move to the next potential bubble I have identified.

At that point I just want to be able to say "I told you so" in a few months or years.
So I'll keep watching crypto, even if I don't trade it anymore.

評論:

Someone on Twitter posted what people were saying back in previous alt seasons.
I didn't even know we could do that XD
Exact same reactions by the exact same people (with 50k followers or not).
Pretty amazing. I'll post link later I'm at work now twitter filtered on this PC.

Ouch!

But long term Hodlers need not worry, in the long term every thing will be fine :)

評論:
OMG I am sorry I apologize for my mistake.
I meant fire. With an r. R RRRRRRRR ARRRR.

* Any money declared by a government to be legal tender.
* State-issued money which is neither convertible by law to any other thing, nor fixed in value in terms of any objective standard.
* Intrinsically valueless money used as money because of government decree.
* An intrinsically useless object that serves as a medium of exchange (also known as fiduciary money.)
While gold- or silver-backed representative money entails the legal requirement that the bank of issue redeem it in fixed weights of gold or silver, fiat money's value is unrelated to the value of any physical quantity. A coin is fiat currency to the extent that its face value, or value defined in law, is greater than its market value as metal.

The term fiat derives from the Latin fiat ("let it be done") used in the sense of an order, decree or resolution.
++++++

Cryptocurrencies and fiat money differ only by the fact crypto is not legal tender (law) and a government/country isn't promising it will back it.

Bitcoin limited supply means it can not get printed infinitly like the Deutsch mark, but it can lose its value too as it is totally worthless.

As cryptocurrencies rely only on investors confidence, and people have been known to lose confidence in about anything on a whim, this makes it a very risky investment. As risky as it gets.

It is very suitable for short term trading.

So, my opinion:
At 1 trilion market cap, the potential reward of crypto was very insufficient to counterbalance the risk.
I believe, and hope, crypto's stays around for trading, just like forex, but riskier and with a bigger reward.
Risk management is (much?) more important in crypto than in other areas.
Crypto markets should get more regulated (and they are about to be).
The exchanges should have several warnings about crypto danger and potential losses (since people are a bit slow). Part of the regulation imo.
All the early adopters shilling Bitcoin to sell higher should not be allowed to do this.

Trading crypto is a nice video game, let's playyyy!

評論:
An example. Tesla, you might have heard, is having a few issues.
The crash, I could see coming from miles. It was written months ago.
We had big bearish divergence at the top - like Bitcoin.
We went into the ~6 months - 1 year investors area & bounced - like Bitcoin
We went back into the investor area and fought there a while - like Bitcoin right now
We finally lost that level - like Bitcoin is going to
And we only stopped falling once we reached the yearly moving averages - like Bitcoin!
And now the internet is full of hilarous bagholder quotes finding excuses, blaming whatever, and explaining how Tesla is awesome and the bears will regret what they did because TSLA will be worth 100 times more - like Bitcoin you will see if we go there we will get the same quotes!

For your entertainment, I have copy pasted a few quotes I found, from bagholders.

Bitcoin for comparaison:

2ez

I'm following certain people on TV which I know are bagholders, I look forward to hearing what they'll have to say, for education purposes.
That's pretty much the mindset that HAS to be avoided (what they'll say).

評論:
When a worthless trading instrument stays near a specific level for so many candles,
traders watching and waiting to see what direction it goes builds up, and once it goes somewhere the move is almost always violent.

Tbh I'm wondering if it's not going to be the end of market manipulation.
The days of scheming are soon over? Regulators are getting better and better at rekking them.

It's lucrative, but you better not get caught.

Also, Okex rolledback all trades when the price was manipulated, whereas a year ago Coinbase couldn't care less "working as intended". Lmao I think now coinbase had a talk with US senators they won't be so quick to say "fk off you lost your money idc" next time :D

Muahahaha I'll rek everyone the retail nobs the pro's they all suck they can't compete I'll make them rrrrrekt!

How do these morons end up with such huge losses XD

評論:
During times like these you gotta educate yourself and/or do something productive, for example making a list of securities commodities and magical internet monopoly money that are the most predictable easier to TA on, and the ones that move randomly and you'll avoid even if the swings are 50%.

On my list of do not trade I got BCH right at the top lol. Well almost every alt tbh...
AND the list depends of the liquidity there is, so you got to reevaluate and put the "good to trade" onto "avoid" column if the liquidity falls and anyone can hop in and do what he wants with the price.

Law of great numbers... TA will work only if money comes for a large number of separate sources.

評論:
Be prepared to get boooored next year in April.
This useless month is dead almost every year in crypto.

評論:

Only 2011 2017 different.

評論:
Educative: to find out stocks that are near capitulation or just capitulated just hang out in social networks & chill.
Whenever you see people start saying things such as "this is wall street fault" or "the bear will regret this dearly" revenge style or "muahaha they think they can fk me but I'll max out my credit card to buy more" (200 IQ) you know it's time to scale in long :D (long term months years)

評論:
Find the strategy that works best for you and never risk more than a certain amount on 1 trade:

I'd risk more than 2%
I am developping a technic to risk big to make big, but spread it on many trades, to reduce the risk. Like buying share of many ships and hoping they don't ALL get attacked by pirates.
Also that way I can not give a **** and just chill while the trades are doing their thing.

評論:
During (long) periods of low volume stillness (2 weeks is long for BTC), watch out for low volume melt up. Next time I'll know...Saw a move to 8500 coming, but not above it. Rip.

The mind is sharper and keener in seclusion and uninterrupted solitude. Originality thrives in seclusion free of outside influences beating upon us to cripple the creative mind.Tesla said it not me. I would phrase it differently :}

Hey, short sellers are actually helping, what little we add to dropping the price helps in the sense the traded instrument doesn't grow to too big proportions, falls faster so this means less people get hurt, they lose less % and they spend less time stressed out worrying.
Hence, not evil, but help the system.

Make me think, now maybe crypto will finally stabilize "kinda" and stop having 1000% moves, which is good for it.

This is really confusing, you say you're bullish at the beginning but then what you write is bearish. Guess you'll be like most of these TAs "I told you I was right when everybody was predicting otherwise"