Elite Field Handicapped for Next Weekend’s The North Face 50

Brett Rivers (Mill Valley, Calif.) overflowed the field to win the four-lap race in 4:21. Justin Morejohn (Davis, Calif.) and Richard Airey (Point Pleasant, N.J.) trailed in second and third at 4:32 and 4:41, respectively. Caren Spore (Davis, Calif.) mastered the stairs and dominated the women’s race with a 4:49 finishing time. Spore’s mark sits just outside the top-10 on the all-time charts. Amy Burton (San Jose, Calif.) edged Clare Abram (San Carlos, Calif.) by two minutes for second at 5:23.

Every few months we call some ultra the most competitive ever, but it’s absolutely true when looking at the men’s field for The North Face Endurance Challenge Championship on December 1 in San Francisco. A field this deep can only be looked at by viewing (1) those that could win, (2) those that could make the podium, and (3) those that could make the top-10.

Those that could win:

As deep as the field is though, only four men have a legitimate shot at winning: Rickey Gates (San Francisco, Calif.), Sage Canaday (Boulder, Colo.), Leor Pantilat (San Carlos, Calif.), and Cameron Clayton (Boulder, Colo.).

Last year Rickey Gates was only 34th, but with more ultrarunning experience in his legs, highlighted by a standout performance at this year’s Speedgoat 50K, a 34th-place finish won’t happen again. In his only two ultras, Canaday broke Anton Krupicka’s course record at the White River 50 this summer and then took second at the UROC 100k in September. Pantilat has more ultra experience than any of the top contenders, but it’s come against limited competition. The final contender, and an absolute dark horse, is recent University of Colorado grad Cameron Clayton. In September, in his only ultra, he broke Geoff Roes’ course record at the Steamboat 50.

Those that could make the podium:

Apart from those four, a handful of men will compete for a podium position. Jason Wolfe (Flagstaff, Ariz.) and Mike Foote (Missoula, Mont.), the eighth- and ninth-place finishers a year ago, will likely be the top-returning competitors. Wolfe is coming off a win at the Bootlegger 50k over Rob Krar and Foote hasn’t had a bad race all year, although he has raced infrequently. Dylan Bowman (Aspen, Colo.) has had a more complete year than either of those two, but will need to run at least as well as he did at the Leona Divide 50, where he won, to make the podium here.

Those that could make the top-10:

And that leaves a long list of those competing for a top-10 finish. Save a course record at the Bridger Ridge Run, defending champ Mike Wolfe (Missoula, Mont.) just hasn’t raced as well in 2012 as he did last year. Likewise, Spain’s Miguel Heras, the 2010 TNF 50 winner, has been but a shell of himself since that win two years ago while battling injuries. Last year’s third-place finisher Adam Campbell (Victoria, BC) was also injured for much of the year, and well-beaten at October’s Lithia Loop Trail Marathon in his return to trail racing.

Jorge Maravilla (Vallejo, Calif.), Galen Burrell (Mill Valley, Calif.), and Jordan McDougal (Warrenton, Va.) all took part in last year’s race, and all finished far from the front. However, each is a potential top-10 finisher, just as they were a year ago. Christopher Kollar (Missoula, Mont.) was also in last year’s race and didn’t finish. Since then, he’s gained some ultra cred by destroying the course record at this year’s Bear 100. And although Chris Lundstrom (Minneapolis, Minn.) didn’t race TNF 50 last year, he was a podium finisher in the event’s early years.

Jacob Rydman (Rocklin, Calif.) and Joe Uhan (Eugene, Ore.) finished 15th and 19th a year ago and both have built on those runs to have strong 2012 seasons. Rydman pushed Timothy Olson to the brink at this year’s Waldo 100k and should be no worse than a top-10 finisher this year. Gary Gellin (Menlo Park, Calif.) beat both Rydman and another TNF 50 entrant, Shaun Martin (Chinle, Ariz.), at this year’s Way Too Cool 50k though.

Joel Hamilton (Denver, Colo.) has run a half marathon faster than anyone in the field (1:04). His younger brother Paul Hamilton (Fort Collins, Colo.) is also racing, as well as Denver-area 2:18 marathoner Chris Siemers. As is often the case with road stars moving to ultras though, that trio’s shift to ultras comes at a time when they likely couldn’t touch their road PRs. The three could all be upstaged by Travis Macy (Evergreen, Colo.), one of the world’s best adventure racers and a former University of Colorado runner. In his early years in the sport, Macy was a former adventure racing teammate of Dave Mackey. Adding to the Colorado pack, Alex Nichols (Colorado Springs, Colo.), Tim Parr (Gunnison, Colo.), Justin Ricks (Pueblo West, Colo.), and Jim Rebenack (Louisville, Colo.) are all also slated to compete. Nichols ran in the lead pack through halfway last year before dropping with a sprained ankle.

Just as Colorado has bragging rights are up for stake, so too does Oregon. Ashland’s top ultrarunner, Timothy Olson, is only racing the 50K distance at TNF and Bend’s Mario Mendoza is instead heading to the XTERRA race in Hawaii. That leaves Ashland upstart Ryan Ghelfi against Hal Koerner and Bend’s Ian Sharman. Sharman had an exceptional race at the JFK 50 just weeks before TNF 50.

The Southeast’s hope rests on Jon Allen (Simpsonville, S.C.) and Scott Williams (Asheville, N.C.), who like Europeans Francois D’Haene, Greg Vollet, and Martin Cox, are long-shots to crack the top-10.

Last year Anna Frost and Ellie Greenwood were way ahead of the competition, but neither is slated to return to TNF 50. Six of last year’s top-10 will return, however. With Frost and Greenwood absent, the front of the women’s race is wide open. Six women have a realistic shot at bringing home the $10,000 first-place prize.

Sweden’s Emelie Forsberg has been this year’s Skyrunning darling. She won the Pikes Peak Marathon and has been a top performer at races around the world against top-level European talent. Kami Semick, an American now living in Hong Kong, and the UK’s Lizzy Hawker have raced TNF 50 before. Neither have won but both have the talent for victory.

Joelle Vaught (Boise, Idaho), Megan Kimmel (Silverton, Colo.), and Rory Bosio (Soda Springs, Calif.) hold the remaining chances for glory. Vaught was third a year ago and is a consistent podium finisher. Kimmel took second, against many of the women racing TNF 50, at November’s Moab Trail Marathon. Bosio, only eighth a year ago, comes into the race following success at Western States and UTMB.

Behind those front seven, the women’s field mirrors the men’s with more than a dozen battling it out for a coveted top-10 finish. With Krissy Moehl (Boulder, Colo.), Helen Cospolich (Breckenridge, Colo.), Kerrie Wlad (Boulder, Colo.), Jennifer Benna (Reno, Nev.), and Stacey Cleveland (Penicton, BC) returning, the fourth-, eighth-, ninth-, tenth-, and eleventh-place finishers from a year ago will all be back.

Devon Yanko (San Anselmo, Calif.), has spent the year lowering her marathon PR, but is now returning from injury. Likewise, Stephanie Howe (Bend, Ore.) is still returning to form and finished off the lead pace in Moab last month. Caitlin Smith (Oakland, Calif.) won the 2009 edition of TNF 50, but hasn’t raced top-level competitors in a trail ultra since. Meghan Arbogast (Corvallis, Ore.) is still running incredibly well into her 50s, but will be challenged by the course’s relentless ups and downs.

Given her background, five-time U.S. Mountain Running Team member Brandy Erholtz (Evergreen, Colo.) should handle the courses climbs and descents as well as anyone, but she was only eighth at the Moab Trail Marathon. Ashley Arnold (Carbondale, Colo.), Tina Lewis (Boulder, Colo.), Sandi Nypaver (Buena Vista, Colo.) have the ultra experience that Erholtz lacks. Lewis, in particular, has been on fire this year with Miwok 100K and Leadville 100 wins. Miwok is held on many of the same trails as TNF and Lewis has the best chance of this group to move onto the podium. Of the Colorado runners though, Paige Higgins (Littleton, Colo.) is the most interesting. She ran a 2:33 marathon in 2010, but has only run 2:48 and 2:52 in two attempts this year. Still, she comes out of the same McMillan Elite fold as Emily Harrison, this year’s JFK 50 runner-up.

The iRunFar.com[5] team will likely provide both pre- and post-race interviews with many of these individuals, and live coverage of both the men’s and women’s races this Saturday.