After a slow start against Denis Istomin with only 52% first serve in, Marin raised his numbers to 64% in quarterfinals and against Donskoy got even better with 70% first serve in. Cilic serve is a barometer of his confidence, when he’s serving at good level his baseline game also improves and that’s exactly what happened in the last two matches.

Our main favorite for the title, Roberto Bautista Agut, kept his solid run on this event with a straight sets victory over Philipp Kohlschreiber. Despite not having a big serve, Roberto has been extremely solid on serve, winning 96.55% of his service games.

These courts in Moscow are quite slow which gives Agut the time he needs to hit his forehand and control the baseline rallies. Against Kohlschreiber, Bautista Agut was dominating the rallies with his forehand, forcing Kohlschreiber to move from one side to another and not giving opportunities for Philipp to use his talented groundstrokes.

The two players meet again in Moscow final, after Cilic emerging victorious in last year’s final by 6 – 4 6 – 4.

Despite winning last year final and being favorite, this won’t be an easy match for the Croatian. Agut can create much problems from the baseline with his consistent baseline game and will use his forehand to explore Cilic poor baseline movement.

The Croatian will need to place at least 60% of first serve, otherwise he’ll give too many chances for Roberto to get into the rallies. The Spaniard should take advantage in longer rallies and can perform an upset here.