Transcription

1 PMI

2 Purchasing Managers Index (PMI ) series are monthly economic surveys of carefully selected companies compiled by Markit. They provide an advance signal of what is really happening in the private sector economy, by tracking variables such as output, new orders, employment and prices across key sectors.

3 PMI surveys are based on fact, not opinion, and are the first indicators of economic conditions published each month. The data are collected using identical methods in all countries, so that international comparisons can be made between, for example, manufacturing in Brazil and Russia by using the monthly data. The indexes achieve considerable press coverage on a regular basis and are widely used by economic analysts in financial institutions, industry and commerce. Notably, central banks in the European Union, United States and Asia use PMI data to help make interest rate decisions. PMI surveys have established highly-regarded track records for accurately anticipating changes in economic conditions in key economies, including the US, the United Kingdom, Germany, France, Italy, Japan, Hong Kong and the Eurozone. Product Offering Monthly Data Economists from central banks and private sector financial institutions almost unanimously cite a preference for monthly data, notably because monthly surveys pick up turning points earlier than quarterly official data. Internationally Comparable PMI is produced using an internationally compatible methodology. It is therefore a simple procedure to compare economic conditions in China with those of numerous other countries (including all G8 countries). Tracks a large number of survey variables Tracks hard data at panel member companies Research shows that opinionbased surveys do not generate data that are as reliable as hard data surveys. This typically becomes more noticeable in the lead up to events such as a general election, when industry may want to send a signal of discontent to a government and the survey results may be overly pessimistic compared to subsequently published official data. \ 3

4 ADDRESSING ANALYSTS NEEDS Why have PMI surveys been developed? PMI surveys have been developed in order to provide analysts with a useful and timely dataset which helps them to better understand economic conditions. In many cases, the advantages offered by PMI data overcome deficiencies in official economic data. These advantages include: Frequent publication PMI surveys are published monthly. National accounts data, from which the most comprehensive and important measure of economic activity gross domestic product is derived, are published only quarterly. Timely publication PMI surveys are published on a timely basis just after the reference period. In contrast, a significant period of time often elapses before official data are published. For GDP, the delay may be several months. PMI data provide figures several weeks in advance of comparable official monthly output data, and several months ahead of quarterly national accounts data. Not subject to revision after first publication Unadjusted PMI data are not revised after first publication. In comparison, official data are frequently subject to revision, and phrases such as the economy grew faster than first thought remain commonplace in press articles and analysts briefing notes. International comparability PMI surveys are conducted internationally using a consistent methodology. By comparison, a further problem associated with official data is that not all statistical bodies compile data using identical methodologies. For example, a great deal of effort in terms of harmonization of methodologies was required among the national European statistics offices in order to obtain a consistent measure of Eurozone GDP. \ 4

5 Markit Eurozone Composite PMI Output Index vs. Eurozone GDP PMI GDP Quarterly % Chg Sources: Markit; Eurostat The PMI was the first indicator to signal the steep downturn in eurozone GDP during the global financial crisis in late-2008, the recession during the euro debt crisis in and the recent economic recovery in \ 5

6 ECONOMIC SURVEY METHODOLOGY Each country PMI survey for the manufacturing or service sector is based on questionnaire responses from panels of senior purchasing executives (or similar) in over 400 companies. The survey panel is carefully recruited to accurately represent the true structure of that sector. Questionnaires are completed in the second half of each month and the survey results are then processed by Markit s economists. Respondents are asked to state whether business conditions for a number of variables have improved, deteriorated or stayed the same compared with the previous month. Reasons for any changes are also requested from respondents. \ 6

7 The questionnaire covers the following economic variables Manufacturing Output New Orders New Export Orders Backlogs of Work Output Prices Input Prices Suppliers Delivery Times Stocks of Finished Goods Quantity of Purchases Stocks of Purchases Employment Services Business Activity New Business Backlogs of Work Prices Charged Input Prices Employment Expectations for Activity Diffusion indexes are calculated for each variable. These indexes vary between 0 and 100 with levels of 50.0 signalling no change on the previous month. Readings above 50.0 signal an improvement or increase on the previous month. Readings below 50.0 signal a deterioration or decrease on the previous month. The greater the divergence from 50.0 the greater the rate of change signalled. \ 7

11 About Markit More Information Markit is a leading global diversified provider of financial information services. We provide products that enhance transparency, reduce risk and improve operational efficiency. Our customers include banks, hedge funds, asset managers, central banks, regulators, auditors, fund administrators and insurance companies. Founded in 2003, we employ over 3,000 people in 10 countries. For more information, please see markit.com For more information on the products and services from Markit, please contact us at or call one of our regional offices: London New York Amsterdam Boulder Dallas Frankfurt Hong Kong Tokyo Toronto Singapore Sydney \ 11

12 pools intelligence surfaces information enables transparency builds platforms provides access scales volume & transforms business Markit makes no warranty, expressed or implied, as to accuracy, completeness or timeliness, or as to the results to be obtained by recipients of the products and services described herein, and shall not in any way be liable for any inaccuracies, errors or omissions herein. Copyright 2014, Markit Group Limited. All rights reserved. Any unauthorised use, disclosure, reproduction or dissemination, in full or in part, in any media or by any means, without the prior written permission of Markit Group Limited is strictly prohibited. PMI and Purchasing Managers Index are trade marks of Markit Economics Limited. Markit and the Markit Logo are registered trade marks of the Markit Group Limited. 08/26/2014

PMI Purchasing Managers Index (PMI ) series are monthly economic surveys of carefully selected companies compiled by Markit. They provide an advance signal of what is really happening in the private sector

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