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FORGET the silliness about profound change and marvellousness. This is the real world and the real world, our world, is about fighting tooth and nail and maybe emerging bloodied but not broken.

There have been three possible versions of Imran.

One version is already dead, two possibilities remain — and together the three cover the spectrum from the dreamy to the hard-nosed to the sceptical.

The Khanista just wants to feel better about himself and this land of ours.

Dreamy is already dead.

Dreamy in the Khanista sense has never existed. Ours isn’t a polity of overthrow and revolution and the core of the Khan base is already a beneficiary of a two-tiered system: the somewhat-haves and the really have-nots.

The Khanista just wants to feel better about himself and this land of ours.

But, from within the system that Imran has demonstrated he is more than willing to work in, there was a dreamy scenario.

It was the promise of holding the others’ feet to the fire without burning down the house.

In easy terms, in opposition, Imran’s greatest promise was to force improvements in the status quo by using his political base as leverage.

You gotta do this — ‘this’ being improvements in the anti-corruption regime, police reforms, service delivery, whatever — because if you don’t you’ll be exposed as liars and frauds, and my star will rise and yours will diminish.

If that sounds woolly — dreamy — it may have been.

The PML-N or the PPP before it would hardly have been eager to listen. Why change what’s already working for them?

But the dreamy scenario for Khan, and by extension the rest of us, could have been bolstered by two other changes already in place.

While political inertia is still possible — no anti-corruption, judicial, police or service-delivery reforms in a decade — it’s increasingly harder to justify.

Wilful intransigence in the face of fierce political opposition can quite realistically erode political support and boost opponents.

The other part that has changed is the court’s willingness to get political. Local governments and the census, as everyone knows, only happened when they did because of the court’s intervention.

Put serious-minded political opposition together with specific demands and stack them on top of public disapproval of political inertia and the court’s activism — and you could have had some momentum for positive change.

Holding the others’ feet to the fire and, if that too failed, ascending to the most coveted of civilian offices, the PM-ship, with the winds of promise and hope at his back — the dreamy scenario.

But Imran chose otherwise.

He hasn’t quite burned down the house yet, but he has set a couple of the rooms on fire and embarked on a project wracked by uncertainty.

It could turn out to be a hard-nosed middle ground — one of the two remaining possibilities for Imran.

Hard-nosed reality is about reconciling political rhetoric with electoral and governance realities, and doing just enough to stay ahead of the chasing pack.

Imran has several advantages here. His compromises, as and when they come, aren’t such a big deal — he is the change, not the people he needs to rely on to assemble the necessary numbers.

But perhaps more important, Imran has a formidable PR machine available, partly built up his party, partly loaned out to him by elements supportive of him.

Hard-nosed reality is about incremental change backed by a vociferous, over-the-top PR machine.

Almost like what KP produced the last time round: change at the margins, enough to differentiate from the other status quo options, with a massive PR machine that has made it impossible to gauge what is true, semi-true or wildly untrue.

Hard-nosed reality is about accepting marginal change and staying ahead of the chasing pack.

So, who cares who Imran picks as CM, speaker or anything else formulaically relevant to democratic delivery and success?

All Imran has to do is stay a smidgen ahead of the previous lot in terms of delivery, keep his PR machine amped up to maximum, and ride the crest of popular support to remaining a legitimate contender in the next election.

Success.

And if not success, the third option: why not Imran?

Why-not-Imran, the third original possibility and one of the two surviving options, is probably Imran’s greatest asset.

A lie at the heart of Imran’s ascension to power and the smiting down of his predecessor has been that there is a crisis — a crisis at the heart of the state, and in the core of governance, that needs immediate rectification.

A crisis that if not rectified will lead to untold disarray and damage.

A crisis to unravel Pakistan.

It’s a lie. Not because there is no crisis, but because the crisis is familiar and the options to emerge from it are well known, more or less reasonably implementable and far from the now-or-never option it has been made out to be.

The PML-N’s mismanagement of the economy has proved only one thing: between the PPP’s road to disaster and the N-League’s, there’s only a question of route, not degree.

But what is this utter disaster exactly?

Back to handouts or bailouts that every government has managed and that Imran’s will too?

A horrible government is what Pakistanis have been programmed to accept, which has left, and may leave, Imran with the ultimate get-into-the-PM Office excuse:

Scepticism.

What’s the worst he can do? Why not give him a chance? It’s not like the others have worked.

But sceptical is dangerous.

Between the dead option of dreamy and the extant option of scepticism, you have to wish for hard-nosed reality.

Comments (24) Closed

brilliant
i thought that cyril could not beat his own past best but you did it.

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Parvez

Aug 12, 2018 10:13am

The crisis exists, it is not a lie.
Why did the PMLN area have a stage where court had to order LG and census. Please call it what it is , poor governance and malintentioned lot in power

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TM

Aug 12, 2018 10:44am

Just too difficult to understand.

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M. Saeed

Aug 12, 2018 11:28am

As an ordinary Pakistani, I had voted Imran Khan just because all others were severally tried and tested and they always failed people like me. But, his talk of change is already fizzling out in the dust being created by the myriad of so called "electables". How he tackles them to survive with his change, is already appearing to be a herculean task.

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mobeen

Aug 12, 2018 12:20pm

Such a wonderful analysis Cyril

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Combaticus

Aug 12, 2018 01:19pm

IK has been dealt a difficult cards - an economic crisis that will require making unpopular decisions. But the economic crisis has partly been due to PML N but also exacerbated by the cases against them and mismanagment by the care takers.

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Syed

Aug 12, 2018 01:58pm

The powers that be have set up Imran Khan to fail. Only a divided Parliament can serve their purpose.

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Salman UK

Aug 12, 2018 03:16pm

Thankyou Cyril for a positive but realistic article. Lets welcome the new PM and give him a fair chance!

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S. Chatterjee

Aug 12, 2018 03:19pm

Hope under the leadership of Imran Khan both India and Pakistan will have peace and citizens irrespective of religions will live peacefully. Both the countries have been sufferings from poverty, unemployment , underemployment, IMR,MMR etc. So development issues must be given priority. He is very much aware that because of cricket affinity Indians like him. So he should concentrate to scale up relationship between two nuclear nations. Abusing each other is not the solution.

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Ayaz Mirza

Aug 12, 2018 05:48pm

Since we are not allowed to discuss precision theft in ballot box therefore we should move on.

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ga

Aug 12, 2018 08:44pm

What PR machine are you referring to? Most people didn't even know about the insaf health card and million tree success or police reforms until it was picked up by media in Pak including this very newspaper. I literally had to check online and see KPK people's reviews on PTI performance

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Jalaluddin S. Hussain

Aug 12, 2018 09:53pm

Fully agree with the following sensible conclusion of the writer:

"Hard-nosed reality is about reconciling political rhetoric with electoral and governance realities, and doing just enough to stay ahead of the chasing pack."

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pathanoo

Aug 13, 2018 12:08am

With prayers for Paksitan; I pray that Imran Khan, the Dream, does NOt turn in to a Nightmare.

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Omair

Aug 13, 2018 01:34am

cyril great

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Denali

Aug 13, 2018 06:25am

Given the divisive and corrupt past of the PPP and PML-N, it will not be easy for IK to move forward smoothly.

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Naseem Hussain Tareen

Aug 13, 2018 06:59am

"Imran Khan's positive way of thinking"
Indian ambassador came to meet with Imran Khan and few days ago ambassador of Islamic Republic of Iran met also with him and arrival of UK ambassador. This is good decision not for only Imran but it is good sign for Pakistani people.

We hope that Imran must set examples as new sovereign government after long time, The demised government of Mr.Z A Bhutto.

I also mentioned here that price of Pakistani rupee raises against USA dollar first time.
Apposition Big parties must give free hands to Mr Imran Khan during 100 days, that how he and his party men performing theirs portfolios for the betterment of our country.

Imran Khan's good decision not to live in the Prime minter House and accommodate himself in ordinary house he set a new example, not only PM but entire cabinet including his Governors also live in ordinary houses in the country as he decided.

I think the role of his government specially foreign affairs specially neighbor countries.

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SDF

Aug 13, 2018 02:53pm

Very well said,,,,,IK won’t be able to materialise his political rehtoric into governance reality. this is a naked truth

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SRA

Aug 13, 2018 11:51pm

Your opinion confuses me. I'm interested to know what is the point you are trying to make.

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Kunal, Gurgaon

Aug 14, 2018 04:57pm

I enjoy reading Cyril's articles. His tongue-in-cheek yet bold writing style. He says it without being overt. Congrats to DAWN management for standing by him during the 'troubled' times.

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Komail

Aug 14, 2018 11:06pm

@anees zed can SOMEONE listen to this voice of reason

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Masud

Aug 15, 2018 01:00am

@anees zed Same questions from me.

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Neo

Aug 15, 2018 03:53am

@SDF. How do you know? Are you some sort of expert. If you were you would consider that he hasn't even been sworn in yet.

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Last Word

Aug 15, 2018 10:38pm

A logical analysis. However, Imran Khan should not be expected deliver immediately what he has promised to the people but given at least four years before any realistic assessment is made on his govt. It is more important to watch whether he makes a sincere attempt to fulfill his promises and how Imran handles the hurdles placed in front of him which are inevitable.