Primer: New Year’s in Japan

If Ryan Seacrest happened to be a major celebrity in Japan, he
would eventually be offered a substantial sum to be beaten severely
in any number of the country’s traditional New Year’s Eve fighting
events. The Japanese watch television in huge numbers that night,
and promotions have hired everyone from actors to pro wrestlers to
fighters dressed in costumes in order to draw attention away from
the standard music and variety programming.

Does it work? For a long time, it did: any combination of Sumo,
Bob
Sapp, or Olympic champions would usually produce tremendous
ratings. But the decline of real fighters and the increasing
reluctance (possibly related to the shrinking pay stubs) of the
“special attractions” has taken its toll.

It’s a real sign of MMA’s erosion in Japan that only one event --
K-1’s Dynamite -- is actually airing New Year’s Eve; the more
serious Sengoku takes place Dec. 30. In both cases, fans can see a
series of competitive fights. But in K-1’s arena, the need for
ratings will prompt the usual stunt work: Shinya Aoki
will be facing Yuichiro
Nagashima in a fight that alternates kickboxing rounds with MMA
rules and Bob Sapp will be wrestling Sumo great Shinichi
Suzukawa in an orchestrated entertainment-only intermission.
Both are likely to dwarf the night’s most legitimate bout, a
lightweight meeting between Strikeforce’s Josh Thomson
and Tatsuya
Kawajiri.

Stateside, most of the attention has been directed at Todd Duffee
taking a late-notice bout against Alistair
Overeem. Duffee was touted as a UFC prospect before a shock KO
at the hands of Mike Russow;
reported head-butting with UFC management led to his release. But
Duffee can strike, and he’s a few levels above the kind of
competition you’d expect Overeem to accept only three weeks after a
grueling K-1 tournament. Too good to believe, actually. Like most
of the Japanese product, it’s subject to change.

Why You Should Care: Because MMA’s Evil Knievel, Ikuhisa
Minowa, will force an entertaining fight against 2004 Olympic
Judo Silver Medalist Hiroshi
Izumi; because it will be incredibly fun to see Aoki strapped
up in kickboxing gear; because Kawajiri is Thomson’s strongest
opponent in years outside of Gilbert
Melendez and Gesias "JZ"
Cavalcante; because Sapp has the lungs of a coal miner after
only two minutes of activity and might need resuscitation; and
because Sengoku’s Marlon
Sandro/Hatsu Hioki
fight decides the best featherweight not in the UFC.

Hype Quote of the Show: “If everything goes well with this
fight, maybe I’ll just switch to a three-week training camp.” --
Josh Thomson, on the late-notice New Year’s tradition, to Knoxx
Gear.

Questions: K-1 Dynamite and Sengoku

Can K-1 ever repeat its past successes on New Year’s?

2009 may have been K-1’s last gasp as a viable television property
during the holiday: the promotion was able to attract a sizeable
audience based largely on interest in kickboxing legend Masato’s
retirement fight. Names like Kazushi
Sakuraba and Shinya Aoki
continue to be scheduled but appeal primarily to devoted MMA fans
and not casual viewers who were spoiled in past years by the
popularity of Sapp, actor Ken Kaneko,
and fights involving massive size disparities.

The show remains a free-for-all -- Sapp is here, along with
flexible rules -- but the Japanese public may no longer be
interested, even at that price.

Why is Thomson taking the risk against Kawajiri?

File Photo

Tatsuya Kawajiri (above)

Lack of planning is a notorious trait among
Japanese fight promoters who often cobble together cards by
measuring production in days instead of months. While foreign
fighters were content to trade prep time for sizable cash purses,
the shrinkage of the sport in Japan and reliable employment in the
States has made that deal less attractive over time.

Thomson, a former Strikeforce lightweight champion, accepted a
fight with the dangerous Kawajiri on only three week’s notice. At
this level of prizefighting, it’s unreasonable to expect a standout
performance with minimal notice. If Thomson wins, there’s no
penalty. If he loses, few will remember he entered the ring at a
disadvantage.

Is Sandro going to stick around Japan?

Sandro is Sherdog.com’s No. 5 ranked featherweight, an impressive
feat considering the majority of that division’s talent (Jose Aldo,
Michihiro
Omigawa, Mike Thomas
Brown) resides in the UFC’s newly-created division. If he can
defeat Hatsu Hioki in Sengoku’s most relevant bout Thursday, the
American promotion might be able to make him a financial offer that
would trump his obligations -- which might not even exist on paper
-- to Sengoku.

The problem? Sandro is on Team Nova Uniao, the same gym real estate
as Aldo. That friendship could prompt him to stay put, but being
the best in the country -- instead of the world -- might eventually
begin to feel like a consolation prize.

Will a weight cut finally euthanize Sakuraba?

MMA’s running joke has long been Japan’s treatment of Sakuraba, an
all-time great whose career was derailed after Pride booked him in
a series of brutal mismatches. At 41, assisted living can’t be far
off.

What better way to celebrate New Year’s than to book him against
vicious striker Marius
Zaromskis? K-1 figured it out: force him to cut to 170 pounds
for the first time in his career to make it an official Dream
welterweight fight. A dehydrated body might unfold into a televised
execution.

What would a Duffee win mean for the heavyweight
division?

It wasn’t long ago that Duffee’s promise in MMA was the subject of
magazine covers and protein-shake ads; he seemed to possess the
vaunted “big man’s athleticism” that’s normally the exclusive
property of pro football.

The upset loss to Russow shut it all down; Duffee’s idea of a
rebuild is to tackle a peaking Overeem on short notice. While
Overeem himself isn’t in prime condition -- he finished a K-1
tourney only three weeks ago -- it’s a risk that most athletes
wouldn’t be willing to take. If Duffee wins, it would have a
dramatic effect on Strikeforce’s heavyweight matchmaking into 2011:
Overeem would no longer be the top of the mountain, and big fights
with Fedor
Emelianenko or Fabricio
Werdum would be muted. If Duffee loses, the hole he started
digging with Russow only gets deeper.

One loss can be passed off as an anomaly. Two in a row is a
freefall.

Red Ink: Aoki vs. Nagashima

With nearly 50 fights on the schedule -- more than some promotions
put on in an entire year -- New Year’s in Japan is a blender of
competitive fights and sideshow attractions. At least one of the
bouts will manage to be both.

For K-1’s Dynamite program, Aoki has agreed to an alternating-rules
bout with Nagashima, an experienced kickboxer with modest skill in
MMA. A coin toss decides which round begins the fight. If a
stand-up round is needed, Aoki and Nagashima will switch to larger
kickboxing gloves. The premise was first used by K-1 for a Jerome Le
Banner/Sapp fight in 2004, an event notable for Sapp begging
his corner not to send him out for a striking round against the
kickboxer.

Is it ridiculous? Absolutely: Aoki is no great striker even by
MMA’s standards. Likewise, Nagashima has no business on the ground
with anyone. But rather than book a squash match, Nagashima is
being afforded a chance to ply his trade.

What it Means: Absolutely nothing.

Wild Card: Everything.

Who Wins: Aoki might be better able to avoid Nagashima’s
strikes than Nagashima can avoid a clinch. Still, this is a format
James
Toney would appreciate. Aoki by submission.