In 1998, Speed Still Didn't Kill

The Steering Column

It's been almost four years since the Republican Congress took Washington Out of the speed-limit business, ending 22 years of federal meddling that began with the notorious 55-mph national speed limit established during the fuel crisis of 1973. With this return of their sovereignty in 1995, many states rushed to increase their speed limits amid predictions of highway mayhem and carnage from the safety lobbies, insurance trade groups, and their fellow travelers.

With three years of accident statistics available since the law was changed (1998 data are preliminary), we can examine what has happened. The chart below shows the total number of annual traffic deaths and the traffic death rate for the years from 1990 to 1998 (NHTSA data):

The most obvious feature on this chart is the dip in traffic deaths in 1992, coinciding with the recession that cost George Bush his presidency. This low point reflects a correlation between the economy and highway deaths that Patrick Bedard had uncovered some years back ("The 55-mph Speed Limit," C/D, July 1983).

However, since the total number of miles Americans drive is constantly increasing (from 2144 billion in 1990 to more than 2600 billion last year), the fatality rate per 100 million vehicle-miles (1000 vehicle-miles, for example, is one car driving 1000 miles or two cars driving 500 miles each) is the key statistic. This figure has been falling continually since the '20s, when it stood at more than 22 deaths per 100 million vehicle-miles. During the current decade, it has dropped from 2.08 in 1990 to 1.58 last year.

Now look at the curves again, and notice what happened between 1995 and 1996, when the states raised their speed limits. Where is the promised carnage? Joan Claybrook, the Nader acolyte and former head of the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, predicted 6400 additional deaths per year if the feds permitted higher speeds.

An additional 6400 fatalities would have produced a sharp spike in the annual deaths graph. And it would have raised the fatality rate to 1.89, 20 percent more than the actual 1998 figure. Yet while eight states raised their limits in late 1995, followed by 26 more in 1996, three more in 1997, and one in 1998, not only have fatalities been unaffected, but injury and accident rates have continued their downward trend as well. Both have dropped about 18 percent between 1990 and 1998.

Despite a complete lack of statistical evidence that raising the speed limit has had any effect on traffic safety, the safety lobbyists continue to shout, "Speed kills!" just as they have for more than 40 years. In fact, earlier this year, the Insurance Institute for Highway Safety released a report claiming that motor-vehicle deaths on highways with increased speed limits rose by 15 percent. "It's clear from this study that the current round of speed-limit increases is costing hundreds of lives per year," scolds IIHS president Brian O'Neill.

But why haven't the additional deaths that O'Neill bemoans shown up in the overall fatality statistics? The answer to that question is revealed in another study, this one by the libertarian Cato Institute, released last May.