It's a conundrum, since much of our highway system is maintained through taxes placed on gasoline and diesel. It's a use-tax scheme. The less gas/diesel fuel used, the less taxes for maintenance and improvements. In order to support our present system of roads, new taxes would need to be levied on non-fossil fuel burning transportation. A post Peak Oil world would then either have to do with less roads, or work out some new tax structure which has the possibility of penalizing those who might use or need less transportation.

The things that will destroy America are prosperity-at-any-price, peace-at-any-price, safety-first instead of duty-first, the love of soft living, and the get-rich-quick theory of life.
... Theodore Roosevelt

Lore wrote:It's a conundrum, since much of our highway system is maintained through taxes placed on gasoline and diesel. It's a use-tax scheme. The less gas/diesel fuel used, the less taxes for maintenance and improvements. In order to support our present system of roads, new taxes would need to be levied on non-fossil fuel burning transportation. A post Peak Oil world would then either have to do with less roads, or work out some new tax structure which has the possibility of penalizing those who might use or need less transportation.

A tax based on vehicle axle weight would be the fairest due to the simple fact that a fully loaded lorry axle would easily place a load of 6 tonnes onto the road, a car axle would be about 3/4 of a tonne.One lorry will do more damage to a weak road surface that about 100 cars!

Ronald Coase, Nobel Economic Sciences, said in 1991 “If we torture the data long enough, it will confess.”

Lore wrote:It's a conundrum, since much of our highway system is maintained through taxes placed on gasoline and diesel. It's a use-tax scheme. The less gas/diesel fuel used, the less taxes for maintenance and improvements. In order to support our present system of roads, new taxes would need to be levied on non-fossil fuel burning transportation. A post Peak Oil world would then either have to do with less roads, or work out some new tax structure which has the possibility of penalizing those who might use or need less transportation.

A tax based on vehicle axle weight would be the fairest due to the simple fact that a fully loaded lorry axle would easily place a load of 6 tonnes onto the road, a car axle would be about 3/4 of a tonne.One lorry will do more damage to a weak road surface that about 100 cars!

We're talking about a "post peak world". We already charge higher taxes using this formula. Most likely vehicles, like the bicycle, would be charged a yearly license fee that would include a stout tax to be applied towards roads.

The things that will destroy America are prosperity-at-any-price, peace-at-any-price, safety-first instead of duty-first, the love of soft living, and the get-rich-quick theory of life.
... Theodore Roosevelt

dolanbaker wrote:Post peak means less oil than today not none, ICE vehicles will be around for several decades more, just in ever decreasing numbers.

This is true, just less of them to pay for the roads they use.

The things that will destroy America are prosperity-at-any-price, peace-at-any-price, safety-first instead of duty-first, the love of soft living, and the get-rich-quick theory of life.
... Theodore Roosevelt

We've only had one oil shock since then. The truth hasn't had much chance to really hit the markets yet. Give it time. We probably need a couple more oil bubbles and busts before the market catches on.

Anyway, I've never believed that cars will be a thing of the past. There will always be a few people able to afford gasoline and a few more will find alternative fueled vehicles affordable. Some others will keep cars purely for occasional long journeys. But when gasoline is the equivalent of $10+/gallon in today's money, we'll see quite a change: people will stop using their cars for frivolous commutes and they'll switch to the bicycle for short journeys and/or move closer to work. Local farming will become profitable. But people are not likely to go out and buy a horse and start living as we did in the 1600s, despite what some folks here are saying.

One thing is certain - unless a big meteor strikes the Earth, a post apocalyptic wasteland is not in my future. Probably not in my daughter's future either. Those hoping for the end of age of oil to come with a major downgrade in lifestyle within the next century are living in la-la-land.

Beery wrote:But people are not likely to go out and buy a horse and start living as we did in the 1600s, despite what some folks here are saying.

correct because there isn't enough land per person for people to live like we did in the 1600's. we will have over 10x the population competing for depleted resources compared to the 1600's.

Beery wrote:One thing is certain - unless a big meteor strikes the Earth, a post apocalyptic wasteland is not in my future. Probably not in my daughter's future either.

Won't need to go back far for it to feel like a post apocalyptic wasteland, relative to expectations. we are used to perpetual progress for as long as we can remember. even just stabilizing would come as a shock.

and there are places on earth which are already being turned into post apocalyptic wastelands, just because it isn't your backyard yet doesn't mean it won't catch up with you. One city at a time, one country at a time...

Beery wrote: Those hoping for the end of age of oil to come with a major downgrade in lifestyle within the next century are living in la-la-land.

we aren't hoping for it, we know it will.americans (only 4.5% of the worlds population) have a lot of "low hanging fruit" in oil efficiency but in the rest of the world it's about basic survival much sooner. food & water are the problems, not adapting to life without private cars (thats' easy)

One thing is certain, whatever happens, the greatest change in our transportation regime will be the increasing use of the mode of transport built right in. Our Feet.

The conclusion that everyone will own horses "like the 1600s" is flawed because not everyone owned them in the 1600's. A horse was an asset that a small fraction of people owned.

When people needed to move things long distances they would generally hire a horse or cart.

Far flung farmers had to own horses and mules just like industrial farmers need tractors, that doesnt mean that everyone owned one.

Towns were and will again be compact dense places, where everyone must access all daily needs on foot. Consequently the amount of road actually required to service is much reduced, as the blocks get smaller and the buildings close together.

anador wrote:One thing is certain, whatever happens, the greatest change in our transportation regime will be the increasing use of the mode of transport built right in. Our Feet.

The conclusion that everyone will own horses "like the 1600s" is flawed because not everyone owned them in the 1600's. A horse was an asset that a small fraction of people owned.

When people needed to move things long distances they would generally hire a horse or cart.

Far flung farmers had to own horses and mules just like industrial farmers need tractors, that doesnt mean that everyone owned one.

Towns were and will again be compact dense places, where everyone must access all daily needs on foot. Consequently the amount of road actually required to service is much reduced, as the blocks get smaller and the buildings close together.

Good assessment and prognostication.

As infrastructure fails, your own two feet will be once more in vogue. Great news for Nike! Other modes of transport, many and varied, where available and practical.

On long trips It will be rather difficult to traverse a road in a wheeled vehicle, getting from point A to point B, where the bridge has collapsed in between.

We're talking about a process in time though and not an event as we atrophy into a post peak world that will be more use to scavenging from its past then building or buying new.

The things that will destroy America are prosperity-at-any-price, peace-at-any-price, safety-first instead of duty-first, the love of soft living, and the get-rich-quick theory of life.
... Theodore Roosevelt

anador wrote:Towns were and will again be compact dense places, where everyone must access all daily needs on foot. Consequently the amount of road actually required to service is much reduced, as the blocks get smaller and the buildings close together.

I keep seeing this, as if it currently doesn't exist. I don't live in a major city (though I once did), and I don't live in a suburb. I live, in what can only be called a "town". Now, I do have a van&truck, and *can* go a long distance for specialty things, if I want them right away; however, everything I *need* is within easy bicycling range.

What's more, as far as I can tell, this place has never been anything other that what it is right now, at least for as long as I've been alive. A few name changes, shipping from Sears instead of Amazon, paper catalogs instead of the net, same game just different wrapping. (kinda a shame Sears didn't recognize the opportunity of the .net as infinite catalog... they really could have taken it and ran with it.)

When I lived inside the city core, all of the above was also true, though the pavement and air quality were suckier.

As to the "on-foot" part. Not a chance. Bikes aren't going away, even if we end up on nasty ole fixies, we'll still have bikes. I'd bet good money though that relatively high tech bikes and parts will remain available for as long as people buy and sell with currency. Might get pricier with shipping, but then again, frames could be locally made, and the important components shipped; so there's really little reason to suspect quality components to disappear.

AgentR11 wrote:As to the "on-foot" part. Not a chance. Bikes aren't going away, even if we end up on nasty ole fixies, we'll still have bikes. I'd bet good money though that relatively high tech bikes and parts will remain available for as long as people buy and sell with currency. Might get pricier with shipping, but then again, frames could be locally made, and the important components shipped; so there's really little reason to suspect quality components to disappear.

You must be thinking of a very robust after structure post peak. Most all bicycle parts are made in Asia. What use to be a $60 Derailleur may cost you 4 or 5 times that to import in real dollars, but guess what, you don't have that kind of money because the job you use to have has been gone now for many years. As for making it locally, those factories that have energy to manufacture, are busy making solar powered pumps by government mandate.

The things that will destroy America are prosperity-at-any-price, peace-at-any-price, safety-first instead of duty-first, the love of soft living, and the get-rich-quick theory of life.
... Theodore Roosevelt

we will not be running out of these any time soon, and even if we did, they are not exactly rocket science to manufacture.

All the heavy lifting in derailleur design was done before 1970. the last real innovation was when suntour invented the slant parallelogram in 1964 (not incorporated on shimano model shown, as the design predates the expiry of the suntour patent).

If there is a market for basic, functional bike parts, I see no reason they will not be able to be produced affordably. Keep in mind, "affordably" as related to the cost of maintaining bikes in the future could be, as a percentage of income, similar to the cost of running a car these days. (hopefully less but probably not as cheap as now)(edit: forgot pic.)

The sophistication of manufactured goods in a post peak oil environment really depends on how you view that world to exist. As the slope steapens downwards, so do the limits on choices and priorities.

Paved roads become dirt roads, dirt roads become paths. Some roads will just no longer exist at all. Mechanicals will follow in kind.

A skilled metal craftsman with a good example could probably make a lot of things, that is if he has the equipment, electrical power and the right raw material. Which may be a challenge in a world on limited allocation.

Last edited by Lore on Sat 31 Dec 2011, 19:35:25, edited 1 time in total.

The things that will destroy America are prosperity-at-any-price, peace-at-any-price, safety-first instead of duty-first, the love of soft living, and the get-rich-quick theory of life.
... Theodore Roosevelt

Lore wrote:You must be thinking of a very robust after structure post peak. Most all bicycle parts are made in Asia. What use to be a $60 Derailleur may cost you 4 or 5 times that to import in real dollars, but guess what, you don't have that kind of money because the job you use to have has been gone now for many years. As for making it locally, those factories that have energy to manufacture, are busy making solar powered pumps by government mandate.

They are made in Asia because of cheap labor; there's nothing magical about the parts in a derailleur, freehub, bottom bracket, or wheelset. There are a half dozen machine shops within 15 miles of my home that could manufacture those parts, if it were profitable to do so. If the fancy tech is not available, then fixies will rule. There's no getting around the fact that people know how to make the parts to a fixed gear bike. There's no getting around tens of millions of serviceable frames already in existence.

That said, the chance of me not being able to afford shipping a small part from Asia in my lifetime is somewhere between miniscule and zero.

As to mandated manufacture of solar powered pumps????? Could you possibly pick a more inherently inefficient product to build? If so, I can't see it. If you need a pump, and can't drag grid electricity to it, you use wind to lift and gravity to feed. If we build solar, it'll be massive deployments in uninhabited zones, or scattered rooftop types feeding into the grid in urban zones. But using solar to specifically drive a pump???? Ultimate mismatch of capability.

Now, if you are suggesting there will be no international commerce, no shipping, no rail transport; we then are well into the 90%+ horrific die-off zone, zombies and all. NYC is closing in on 10 million people. Without rail and shipping, they die, no ifs, ands, or buts. If they die, walkable towns, bicycles, and building density will be so far down the list of priorities that people will forget the concept. Not to mention, that if the jobs are all gone, then there will be no currency based commerce, and no reason to even walk in town, because, you won't be buying anything or selling anything anyway.

nb... If no one else is making bike parts, and there exists commerce to the extent that towns are walkable and have a reason to exist, *I* will make them and sell them!! WOOT! POST PEAK PROFESSION! (somehow, I doubt we get that bad off, but if we do, there ya go!)

Will these places have the resources in workers, power and material to do so is the question? It's not that they can't, but if they could.

You don't have to go to the extreme you're talking about to get to that place. In fact just a little over 65 years ago we had that same rationing here in the US and even more so in Western Europe.

Oh, and the solar powered pump was just an offhand analogy.

The things that will destroy America are prosperity-at-any-price, peace-at-any-price, safety-first instead of duty-first, the love of soft living, and the get-rich-quick theory of life.
... Theodore Roosevelt

Lore wrote:Will these places have the resources in workers, power and material to do so is the question? It's not that they can't, but if they could.

How much resources do you think it takes to melt some aluminum, cast it, grind it, cut some threaded holes and screw it to a bike frame?This isn't even advanced machine work here.

You bring up rationing back in WWII; you know what was the hardest thing to get? TIRES. It wasn't the crafted metal in anything, the screws, the car, the motor; it was the dang TIRES. Fortunately, bike tires, ridden on gently, last for a long time, and tubes can be patched over and over.