Rebecca Wilder: Of course bank lending is stalling

This post is a guest contribution by Rebecca Wilder*, author of the of the News N Economics blog.

The Wall Street Journal ran a story about reduced bank lending originating from those banks that received TARP monies. Frankly, I don’t know what kind of response the WSJ was going for, but I know what mine was: of course bank lending is stalling. Amid the precipitous economic decline, loan origination would likely be much worse had the banks not received capital injections. And in looking at the data, I noticed that another shoe might drop on consumer spending: home equity lines of credit are surging.

The credit crunch is now very evident in the data.

The chart above illustrates total commercial bank lending growth since 1950. Lending has stalled at a 2.2% annual growth rate in March 2009, falling 2.3% since its peak in October 2008. The unemployment rate is at 8.5% and expected to rise further, GDP is about to post its third consecutive decline, and the health of the banking system is still in question. It is very likely that annual lending growth would be negative by now and probably well below growth rates seen in previous credit crunch (circles in chart).

“According to a Wall Street Journal analysis of Treasury Department data, the biggest recipients of taxpayer aid made or refinanced 23% less in new loans in February, the latest available data, than in October, the month the Treasury kicked off the Troubled Asset Relief Program.

“The total dollar amount of new loans declined in three of the four months the government has reported this data. All but three of the 19 largest TARP recipients with comparable data originated fewer loans in February than they did at the time they received federal infusions.

“The Journal’s analysis paints a starker picture of the lending environment than the monthly snapshots released by the government and is a reminder of the severity of the credit contraction. One reason for the disparity: The Treasury crunches the data in a way that some experts say understates the lending decline.”

“Lending levels increased from January primarily in residential mortgage lending which was driven by attractive mortgage rates.”

The Treasury data is outdated. Since the shadow banking system is all but dead right now, any loan origination is likely going through the commercial banking system, which is reported by the Fed here through March. The Fed’s data tells a similar story as the Treasury report, that loan origination is down.

However, there is one exception: as of March, real estate lending is still rising slightly, but only because households are drawing on existing home equity lines of credit. I see this as another shoe to drop on consumer spending.

Credit crunch: firm lending is down.

The chart illustrates monthly commercial and industrial lending by the commercial banks. Loan origination has decreased, and the annual growth rate slowed, substantially.

Next shoe to drop: households are increasingly drawing on revolving home equity lines of credit.

The chart illustrates lending on revolving home equity lines of credit (HELOC). Lending (blue line) is still rising through March at a 20% annual rate. Households are using these lines of credit (presumably) to finance consumption needs, and a 20% annual growth rate is likely unsustainable.

Eventually, the lines of credit will run dry; and households will be forced to cut back on spending, taking another leg down. Not shown here is non-revolving real estate lending, which is down 1.3% in March since its peak in January 2008.

The credit crunch is in full swing, and the TARP monies no doubt kept lending in positive territory for a while. Amid surging unemployment, ongoing economic uncertainty, and a banking crisis that has yet to be resolved, the growth in bank lending is, in my opinion, rather remarkable.