Just For Fun

Last month, President Obama's longest winning streak in job approval polling ended. For the first six months of 2016, Obama improved his monthly average job approval number each and every month. That's a longer streak than he's ever managed, to put it into perspective. His job approval rose a whopping 6.5 points during this period, while his average monthly job disapproval number fell 5.4 points. In July, however, both numbers experienced a mild correction, ending this notable streak.

[Click on graph to see larger-scale version.]

July, 2016

Obama's job approval rating fell 0.4 points, to wind up at 49.6 percent. His job disapproval rose by a half a point, to end up at 46.7 percent. That's still relatively good -- both are stronger numbers than he's seen since the first two months of his second term (in his "second honeymoon" period). But the large gains he made in June couldn't be sustained and fell back a bit for both numbers.

In the political world, July was almost exclusively centered on Cleveland and Philadelphia, where both parties held their national conventions. The vice-presidential picks were rolled out and then Republicans and Democrats both threw a four-day party to formally introduce their candidates to the American people.

Obama's approval likely went down in July because of the timing of these two events. His job approval number was in fairly good shape but then took a dive while Republicans were telling voters what a terrible job he's been doing. They started to recover when Democrats got their licks in the next week. So what is likely happening is Obama's poll numbers mirrored who had the nation's attention. Again because of the timing, this will probably help Obama in August.

Overall Trends

President Obama's overall trend lines still look pretty good, even with the dip in July figured in. He's in better shape than he's been all year, with the exception of June's numbers (which rose faster than the general trend he's seen since the beginning of the year). Here's a detail chart of the last year, where this trend can be more easily seen.

[Click on graph to see larger-scale version.]

The upward trend for Obama's approval was very strong from January to March, but then tapered off to a slower and more gradual rise. Even discounting the June data point, you can see that Obama is still on that path. While his approval fell 0.4 percent this month, it's still 0.8 points higher than it was in May.

Obama is still a comfortable 2.9 points above water, and his daily approval rate never even came close to sinking below his daily approval rate during the month. This has been true for the past three months now. His daily approval rating started the month at 50.1 percent, dropped during the GOP convention to 49.1 percent, but then rose to end the month at 50.0 percent. This shows his numbers are already recovering, heading into August. Obama's daily disapproval followed a similar path throughout the month, although the end-of-month recovery wasn't as pronounced.

The safe bet for August is that Obama will return to his gradual rise. He might not match June's high point, but he'll likely continue to improve his job approval ratings. Congress is out for the entire month, so there won't be legislative squabbles, and the general election campaign for president will get underway. The funniest shout from the crowd at the Democratic National Convention that I heard was during Barack Obama's speech, when several people yelled "Four more years!" That feeling -- that we're going to miss Obama when he's gone -- will likely only grow over the next three or four months. So I look for Obama to turn his numbers around in August, and post modest gains.

[Obama Poll Watch Data:]

Sources And Methodology

ObamaPollWatch.comis an admittedly amateur effort, but we do try to stay professional when it comes to revealing our sources and methodology. All our source data comes from RealClearPolitics.com; specifically from their daily presidential approval ratings "poll of polls" graphic page. We take their daily numbers, log them, and then average each month's data into a single number -- which is then shown on our monthly charts here (a "poll of polls of polls," if you will...). You can read a much-more detailed explanation of our source data and methodology on our"About Obama Poll Watch"page, if you're interested.

Questions or comments? Use theEmail Chrispage to drop me a private note.

To save space, the only data and statistics listed above are from Obama's second term. If you'd like to see the data and stats from Obama's first term, including a list of links to the full archives of the Obama Poll Watch column for the first term, we've set up an Obama Poll Watch First Term Data page, for those still interested.

Last month, President Obama's longest winning streak in job approval polling ended. For the first six months of 2016, Obama improved his monthly average job approval number each and every month. That's a longer streak than he's ever managed, to put it into perspective. His job approval rose a whopping 6.5 points during this period, while his average monthly job disapproval number fell 5.4 points. In July, however, both numbers experienced a mild correction, ending this notable streak.

Who could have POSSIBLY predicted that!??!!??

Oh... wait... :D

So I look for Obama to turn his numbers around in August, and post modest gains.

TOP TEN SHOWS DEMOCRATS LIKE
"Game of Thrones"
"The Haves and the Have Nots"
"Supernatural"
"The Big Bang Theory"
"Suits"
"The Walking Dead"
"How to Get Away With Murder"
"Doctor Who"
"Empire"
"Nashville"

Possibly, but I doubt it. What would the supernatural, horror and nerds have in common? Personally, I watch 5 of the shows from the Republican list on a regular basis, and only 2 from the Democratic list, yet if I had to accurately describe myself and pigeonhole me into a specific category, I would say that I am a Liberal Democrat.

Possibly, but I doubt it. What would the supernatural, horror and nerds have in common? Personally, I watch 5 of the shows from the Republican list on a regular basis, and only 2 from the Democratic list, yet if I had to accurately describe myself and pigeonhole me into a specific category, I would say that I am a Liberal Democrat.

I watch 3 shows from the DEM list (SUPERNATURAL, TBBT and SUITS.. LOVE Suits.. :D) and 5 shows from the GOP list.. We used to watch ARROW, but it just got too weird... Plus what they did to Katie Cassidy from SUPERNATURAL to ARROW is simply a crime against nature... :^/

Obama's still almost exactly where Reagan was at this point. Oh, and Dubya had sunk below 30% approval at this point, never to see above it again. Just, y'know, to put it in perspective for you.

:-)

[5] -

OK, now that is an interesting list. Particularly BBT. I love the show, but always wondered why it was so popular. The dialog skews very scientific and wonky, which usually turns people off. The actors and the characters are great, maybe that makes up for it. I also always wondered (while also loving the show) why West Wing was so popular, for almost exactly the same reasons.

John M -

I watch 3 from each list, but you're right it's a fascinating thing to contemplate. Of course, there's always a big difference between "coincidence" and "causality" -- lists like this aren't very predictive.

My main message [if I ran the world] to TV executives would be: "Bring back Craig Ferguson on late night! We miss him!"

But then, that's just me.

Michale [8] -

Well, he's a contender, that's for sure. Disappointing enough, true, but pretty minor guy. I usually only award minor guys the prize if nobody else (nobody more prominent) did anything disappointing that week. So I'll have to think about it, but thanks for the suggestion.

The ONLY show that I've seen (on either list) is Dr. Who, and that was around 1985, old UK re-runs shown on Public Broadcasting. Tom Baker mostly, who is THE Dr. WHO so far as I'm concerned.

I can't stand commercials!!!!

I'll get around to Empire and Game Of T. eventually, in binge mode on NetFliz or Amazon.

Dry humor....as in dry gin? As in gin and tonic? Gin and tonic season runs until Labor Day in my Alcohol Zone (almost the same map as frost zones) at which point I switch back to lighter beers. Always a poignant moment, coming up fast.

my guess is that obama stays stable at 50 through election day, then gets a small uptick for the last 2-3 months.

i regularly watch two republican shows, two democratic shows, and none of the shows liked by both. NCIS i used to really enjoy, but i got tired of it when it grew spin-offs. Flash and arrow are guilty pleasures, not such good shows but a call-back to my days as a comic-loving teen. suits is outstanding dramedy - serious themes with cute dialogue. doctor who is an institution - the past few seasons have been barely watchable, but after twelve doctors we can't very well quit now.