Holmes: Post-conventional wisdom

Monday

Jun 16, 2014 at 4:32 PMJun 16, 2014 at 5:48 PM

It wasn't planned that way, but Democrats will be fighting Democrats for four offices into September.

The complicated electoral contraption that culminated in last weekend’s Democratic Convention was designed to do several things. It empowers the party’s activists. It gives a voice to elected Democrats and the party organization, theoretically to help keep the activists from embracing unelectable extremists.

Mostly, the process is supposed to winnow the field, and to give the winning candidate a boost going into the primary campaign. In Worcester, Democrats did a little bit of winnowing, but not much boosting.

Instead of identifying a strong candidate who could open the general election campaign the next day – as Democrats did two years ago with Elizabeth Warren and Republicans tried to do this year with Charlie Baker - the convention produced evenly matched candidates in four races. Democrats have almost three months of hard campaigning ahead of them before they can begin to unite behind a ticket.

Take the governor’s race, far and away the most important. Don’t believe the spin about Steve Grossman being the big winner because he got more delegate votes. Nobody cares about the endorsement of the convention.

The big winner was Don Berwick, the only one of five governor candidates who exceeded expectations. For months, many observers assumed only two candidates would make it to the primary ballot, but Berwick won the hearts of the party’s progressives with promises of a single-payer health care system, the repeal of the casino laws and a full-throated assault on poverty and injustice.

Not only did Berwick, a pediatrician, health policy expert and former Medicare chief in the Obama administration, cross the 15-percent threshold, he came within a percentage point of overtaking Martha Coakley. And because two other candidates, Juliette Kayyem and Joe Avellone, finished out of the running, Berwick gets to be the fresh face in the primary race, and the sole alternative to the two familiar insiders.

The other two finalists came out of the convention weaker than when they went in.

Coakley still leads in the polls, benefitting from her higher name recognition. But the convention confirmed what has been clear since Scott Brown walked over her four years ago: two-thirds of the Democratic base just isn’t that into her.

Grossman misplayed the expectations game. His people were predicting a stronger delegate tally that would give him decisive momentum going into a one-on-one race with Coakley. Grossman has money, organization, and a pretty good record as state treasurer, but an awful lot of Democrats aren’t that into him either.

Berwick’s performance won him an opportunity to introduce himself to the broader electorate, but Saturday may prove to have been his best day. He’ll now face more intense scrutiny than he’s seen so far, and not just by Democratic opponents. Voices from the Right are painting the defeat of Avellone, along with Berwick’s surge, as proof that extremists have taken over the Democratic Party. On WCVB’s “On The Record” Sunday, Republican commentator Ginny Buckingham dropped what may the first “loony left” reference of the campaign. It won’t be long before we hear Berwick being described as the father of the botched Obamacare rollout.

There are similar stories down the ballot. Attorney general candidate Maura Healey came within a hair of beating Warren Tolman at the convention. Tolman is experienced (he’s run statewide before) and he’s plugged in (brother Steven runs the AFL-CIO). But Healey’s another attractive outsider, backed by the progressive establishment – and they often are stronger in the primary than at the convention. It promises to be an interesting campaign.

The field of lieutenant governor candidates was winnowed from four to three. Cambridge City Councilor Leland Cheung surprised many by making the primary ballot, where he’ll face Mike Lake, considered the progressive activists’ candidate, and Steve Kerrigan, who is closer to the party organization. If there was anything interesting about the lieutenant governor’s job, it could be an interesting race to watch.

The treasurer field didn’t get winnowed at all. Pre-conventional wisdom had Tom Conroy on the bubble. His opponents, Sen. Barry Finegold and Brookline activist Deb Goldberg, had stronger geographical bases, but Conroy made the most of endorsements from his fellow state reps. Goldberg ended up with 38 percent, Conroy with 34 percent and Finegold with 27 percent. That makes it an even battle, if not necessarily a riveting campaign.

So the political landscape post-convention has Democrats fighting through the summer in four contests – which will come as good news to Republicans.

Rick Holmes writes for MassPoliticalNews.com and is opinion editor for the MetroWest Daily News. He can be reached at rholmes@wickedlocal.com . Visit MPN online and follow it @masspolinews.

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