EMERGING THREAT ASSESSMENTGLOBAL STRIKE MEDIA.COM NORTH AMERICA

The Kremlin, increasingly convinced that President Trump will not fundamentally change relations with Russia, is instead seeking to bolster its global influence by exploiting what it considers weakness in Washington, according to political advisers, diplomats, journalists and other analysts. – New York Times

Russia is moving aggressively on another traditional patron of U.S. arms exports: the United Arab Emirates. Rather than cheap small arms and land-based platforms, Russian companies appear to have identified a market opportunity: relatively cost-effective alternatives to Western fifth-generation fighters. – Defense NewsAriel Cohen writes: As Gen. H.R. McMaster takes over President Donald Trump’s National Security Council, conducting a bottom-up review and developing a Russia policy at the NSC, Pentagon, and State Department should be a top priority for the administration. – Atlantic CouncilStephen Blank writes: No real agreement with Moscow is possible as long as it arrogates to itself the right to attack and seize its neighbors’ territory, behave autocratically in world affairs, and demand special treatment and unbridled sovereignty at home. To quote the statesman A. M. Gorchakov, for Russia, “the difficulty lies in knowing where to stop.” But history has already shown that Putin’s autocracy, like its predecessors, can neither stop nor wants to. Therefore we must jointly forge new ways to conduct the old missions of deterrence and reassurance. The alternative is unacceptable. – Atlantic Council

The Kremlin’s growing embrace of Gen. Khalifa Haftar, a rival of the United Nations-backed coalition government in Tripoli, signals Moscow’s desire to extend its influence in the Middle East and North Africa after intervening in Syria’s civil war. Now the Russian government is courting the Trump administration to get its support for the controversial general, according to people familiar with the Kremlin’s thinking. – Wall Street Journal (subscription required)

Christopher Kozak writes: There is nothing unnatural, artificial, or inherently temporary about the coalition between Russia and Iran. Their relationship rests on a deep foundation of common strategic objectives and interests. The two countries are building a military coalition that can operate across the region – including a potential anti-access, area-denial zone stretching from the Mediterranean Sea to the Persian Gulf. Meaningful divisions between Moscow and Tehran will only materialize under extreme conditions when either or both are on the verge of victory or collapse, forcing the other to make hard choices about its long-term regional interests. – American Enterprise Institute/Institute for the Study of War

In Defense Budget, Trump Declares War on DiplomacyFrom Paul D. Shinkman, U.S. News & World Report: “If enacted, the defense budget increase would be funded by targeting programs that currently cost the U.S. roughly $50 billion, including relevant initiatives within the State Department as well as the entirety of the budget for USAID, the government agency that dispenses humanitarian assistance. Officials did not specify programs or agencies, but Trump and other Republicans have suggested that dismantling institutions like the Environmental Protection Agency could also be possible. Spreading cuts across other institutions like the EPA, NASA or the Department of Transportation would likely cripple those smaller budgets.”

Trump and the "Arc of Instability"From Harlan Ullman & Arnaud deBorchgrave, UPI: “Even with President Donald J. Trump asserting that his White House is "running like a fine-tuned machine," the rest of the world is not. As U.S. Secretary of Defense Jim Mattis sees it, an "arc of instability" runs from the Western Mediterranean to the Eastern Bay of Bengal. Not a scintilla of evidence suggests that any resolution of the conflicts and civil wars in Syria, Iraq, Libya and Yemen is within light years of occurring. Europe is still grappling with the wave of refugees and immigrants. And Ukraine remains a battleground in its eastern provinces.”

A Strategy for China’s Imperial OverstretchFrom Daniel Blumenthal, The American Interest: “Notwithstanding the facile talk of China’s “gains” from Donald Trump’s imagined withdrawal from the world, Beijing is no position to lead the world. Instead it is very close to imperial overstretch. A new U.S. strategic approach should hasten a Chinese reckoning with its geopolitical troubles.” More Questions Than Answers in the South China SeaFrom Stratfor: "The competition over the disputed waters of the South China Sea has heated up over the past few months. China accelerated its defense buildup in the area, installing weapons on its artificial islands in the Spratly archipelago and enhancing its presence on the Paracels. Vietnam followed suit and upgraded its defense in the Spratlys, while the Philippines considered taking steps to shore up its own claims in the island group, including Thitu Island. Adding to the tension, China seized a U.S. Navy drone and intercepted a U.S. P-3C Orion surveillance aircraft flying over the disputed areas."

“…Why should I challenge the powerful words of Bryan Wright or the extensive reporting of Adam Kredo? The political assassination of General Mike Flynn was carried out by a cabal of CIA officials and Obama loyalists, in tandem with allies in the media. It’s an ugly spectacle, damaging to our national interests, and perhaps unique in our history, as Senator Cruz has said.

Flynn's phone calls with Russian officials, which took place before he officially entered the White House, do not appear to violate any law. Yet the release of classified information about them certainly is a crime. As Wright says, "The spies who are plotting against President Trump are breaking U.S. laws. They’re violating their oaths. And they’re committing treason to remedy (perceived) treason."

If I had to guess, I’d bet that Wright’s correct: the spooks, in league with the Obama remnant in the bureaucracy and the press, killed Mike Flynn. That’s the logic of the event. Cui bono? Who gains?
The vicious attack on Flynn is not a new development. There are many in the Intelligence Community who have been out to get Flynn for years, because he exposed their failures in the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. In an article in 2010 he said:…”
​https://www.forbes.com/sites/michaelledeen/2017/02/26/the-flynn-assassination/#1aa2287c1f03

America’s Iraq legacy: The present ruin of Iraq and Syria is the direct result of the militarizing policies of previous US administrations that bought a temporary peace in Mesopotamia at the price of arming a Sunni resistance that eventually backed ISIS. Asia Times’ columnist Spengler predicted this exact situation in 2007 and here we republish his original article, that is as relevant today as it was ten years ago.

Myanmar’s democratic failings: Many expected miracles when Aung San Suu Kyi’s elected government took office after decades of military misrule but the political reality has been more prosaic. Bertil Lintner reports that if Suu Kyi fails to achieve more with democratic reform, economic progress and national unity, it is possible that her long awaited rule in Myanmar will be fleeting. READ THE STORY HERE

Secretary of State Rex Tillerson is under pressure to chronicle war crimes committed by Russia and Syria, from a bipartisan group of lawmakers that is pushing for "accountability" at the end of the Syrian civil war. – Washington Examiner

Editorial: Mr. Kelly, who as a Marine led U.S. Southern Command, said in his confirmation hearing that partnerships “as far south as Peru” are more important to U.S. border security than building a wall. Along with Secretary of State Rex Tillerson, he headed to Mexico on Wednesday, just after the Department of Homeland Security released its new deportation guidelines. If the goal was to widen bilateral cooperation and soothe the harsh feelings Mr. Trump has engendered with our neighbor and ally, the timing was pitiable. – Washington Post

[A]s Secretary of State Rex W. Tillerson arrived in Mexico on Wednesday, twin threats hung over the frayed relationship between the two nations: President Trump’s new orders to round up and deport immigrants who are in the United States illegally, and a separate effort to take a hard look at all American aid to Mexico, possibly using it to pay for a border wall instead. – New York Times

The Trump administration in its first month has largely benched the State Department from its long-standing role as the pre­eminent voice of U.S. foreign policy, curtailing public engagement and official travel and relegating Secretary of State Rex Tillerson to a mostly offstage role. – Washington PostSecretary of State Rex Tillerson has asked his aides to find ways to improve his media profile, a request that comes as U.S. diplomats increasingly worry about the direction of the State Department and whether their new boss has enough influence with President Donald Trump. - PoliticoAaron David Miller and Richard Sokolsky write: Tillerson looks and acts like a tough secretary of state. He has negotiating experience and a strong understanding of the way the world works beyond America’s shores. And clearly this White House needs all the help it can get. Given Tillerson’s capabilities and the wealth of talent he can draw on at State, his smart and timely engagement could even mean the difference between foreign policy success and failure. Let’s hope he can find a way to get into the game. - Politico

Bart Marcois writes: These are not the policy positions of a Russian puppet; they suggest that Putin is only posturing, hovering around Trump, pretending to be in control. Instead, it’s quite the reverse: Trump's actions are undermining Putin abroad and at home, where he has ordered media coverage of Trump to cease. Look at the results, and not the noise: Trump is forcing NATO to its greatest defense spending in decades and is demanding the return of Crimea. The bubble has burst in Russia, and Putin already is on the defensive. – The Hill

Frederic Wehrey and Wolfram Lacher write: The worsening tensions in Libya could present the Trump administration with a significant test of its capacity for containing escalating crises, reconciling conflicting interests among its allies, and checking Russia’s ambitions. Expectations that the new administration will back one side in the conflict have raised the risk of an escalation that could lead to an open-ended war. To prevent such an outcome, the United States must send strong signals to forces on all sides of the conflict, as well as their foreign patrons, and make clear that a political settlement presents the only viable path out of the chaos. – Foreign Affairs

Today’s Bombers Rely on America’s Weakest Nuclear LinksFrom Elaine Grossman, War Is Boring: “The risk of losing connectivity with the bombers is so profound that one nuclear expert — among several who requested anonymity to discuss sensitive nuclear operations — called it “reckless” for any president to assume the bombers could be recalled after giving them a nuclear go-ahead. In a word, any presidential execution order conveyed to the bombers may effectively be the same as for ballistic missiles. Irreversible..” ​

CHINA: China Building Missile Silohs in South China SeaFrom Idrees Ali, Reuters: “China, in an early test of U.S. President Donald Trump, has nearly finished building almost two dozen structures on artificial islands in the South China Sea that appear designed to house long-range surface-to-air missiles, two U.S. officials told Reuters.”

How America Can Avoid a War with ChinaFrom Joe Renouard, The National Interest: “Sino-American relations seem to be at a crossroads, though exactly where the relationship is headed is anyone’s guess. President Trump’s scattershot approach to public diplomacy and policymaking has thus far sparked more questions than answers. Is he acting irresponsibly and provoking unnecessary conflicts, or is he shrewdly testing Beijing’s resolve before he challenges it on trade and security matters? Will he successfully maintain America’s leading regional role, or will his nationalism encourage the other Asia-Pacific nations to make their own deals with China? Will these nations be gradually drawn into a China-led regional order?” ​

Fixing the Navy's Carrier GapFrom Rick Berger, RealClearDefense: “For almost two months, the United States Navy has operated without its required aircraft carrier in the Middle East and Europe. These continual carrier “presence gaps” should not surprise us; they represent a voluntary choice by a Navy asked to do too much with too little for too long. And while Pentagon leadership and combatant commanders have agreed for years that the Navy requires at least twelve carriers to keep three deployed at any one time, appropriators long ago failed to fund a carrier fleet of that size. Today, President Trump and the Republican Congress have signaled their intent to repair the U.S. military, but no easy or quick fixes exist for America’s aircraft carrier fleet. Reconstituting a healthy carrier force requires an understanding of the real problem, followed by several short-term actions and a generational commitment to America’s premier power projection force.” ​

Trump and Russia: Confusion at the TopFrom John E. Herbst, The American Interest: “The Trump Administration’s Russia policy is already working against U.S. interests. It’s time to show Putin that he can’t revise the international order.”

Security footage has emerged of the killing of Kim Jong Nam last week, showing two attackers took less than three seconds to carry out the assault on the half-brother of North Korean dictator Kim Jong Un. – Wall Street Journal (subscription required)

U.S. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson told China’s foreign minister that his country should “use all available tools” to confront North Korea’s provocations, a State Department spokesman said, as Beijing and Washington held their highest-level meeting since President Donald Trump took office. – Wall Street Journal (subscription required)[B]ehind the scenes, there is a sense of shock and dismay in Beijing, officials and experts say: If indeed Kim Jong Nam was assassinated on the orders of the North Korean leader, it would be seen as an affront to the country that has afforded him protection for many years. – Washington PostChinese officials in the western region of Xinjiang, an area troubled by occasional acts of ethnic violence and domestic terrorism, ordered paramilitary units and police officers to attend large rallies in the past week as a show of force. – New York TimesChinese authorities have ordered all motor vehicles in Bayingol prefecture in far-western Xinjiang to be installed with mandatory satellite tracking devices, the latest tough anti-terror measure targeting the ethnically divided region. - ReutersChina will suspend all imports of coal from North Korea until the end of the year, the Commerce Ministry announced Saturday, in a surprise move that would cut off a major financial lifeline for Pyongyang and significantly enhance the effectiveness of U.N. sanctions. – Washington Post

LtGen McMaster's Reading List for LeadersFrom Kira Bindrim, Quartz: “In 2012, while commander of the US Army Maneuver Center of Excellence at Fort Benning, Georgia, McMaster did an interview with the management consulting firm McKinsey in which he talked about the evolution of the army, as well as “what competencies our leaders need and…how, where, and at what point in their careers we train and educate them.” One of those strategies, McMaster said, was “to cultivate within our leaders a desire for lifelong learning and to provide them with the tools necessary for informal self-study and collaborative study across their careers.””

Roiled by antigovernment protests, revived insurgencies and its worst recession in three decades, Africa’s most populous nation is now fretting about the health of its president. – Wall Street Journal (subscription required)Nigeria’s Ministry of Petroleum Resources has drawn up initiatives and investment plans that it hopes will finally end armed militancy in the Niger Delta, the West African state’s main oil-producing region, according to the country’s oil minister. – Wall Street Journal (subscription required)

Carl Gershman and Ivana Cvetkovic Bajrovic write: Western silence and inaction only increase the possibility that the situation in the Western Balkans will continue to deteriorate. Given the growing crises and dangers that Western governments already face, the last thing they need is a new outbreak of conflict in the Balkans. To prevent that from happening will take more than complacency and wishful thinking. – World Affairs Journal

The existence of the SSC-8 missile is not new. Reports indicate that the nuclear-capable missile was first tested in early 2008. In 2014, after several years of watching the development of the missile program, the Obama administration announced that Russia had violated the INF treaty. – Washington Post’s Checkpoint

Matthew Costlow writes: Well-intentioned if naïve analysts and officials may say the United States should continue making nuclear reductions in the hopes of Russian reciprocity, but as the famed economist Milton Friedman once said, “One of the great mistakes is to judge policies and programs by their intentions rather than their results.” Instead, the United States should form its nuclear policies based on a realistic assessment of the security environment and its own goals, not a vain attempt to gain an international following. – National Institute for Public Policy

Four Russian military aircraft conducted low passes against a U.S. destroyer in the Black Sea last week, the first such military provocation since the new Trump administration took office. – Washington Free Beacon

A Russian spy ship was spotted patrolling off the East Coast of the United States on Tuesday morning, the first such instance during the Trump administration – Fox News

U.S. lawmakers from both sides of the political aisle reacted with concern to reports Tuesday that Russia deployed a new type of nuclear cruise missile. – DOD Buzz

Julia Ioffe writes: A little more turmoil in the White House only serves to underscore the point the Kremlin and its faithful media messengers have emphasized for years: Western democracy is a circus, an inefficient mess at best. Do you really want your country run in such a sloppy fashion? And even if the bet on Trump doesn’t pay off and he turns into an enemy, he will continue to serve as the traditional foil of the evil Western leader bent on humiliating the Motherland. – Atlantic Council

The Russians aren’t just deploying new treaty-breaking, nuclear-capable cruise missiles. They’re also fielding sophisticated cyber and electronic warfare systems that can hack or jam our defenses against such missiles. In fact, no military mission is more dependent on high-speed data networks than air and missile defense — but no military system is more vulnerable than those networks. It’s a dilemma the Army is just starting to wrestle with, even as its air and missile defense force stakes its future on a complex new network called IBCS. – Breaking Defense