Shot Offers Moderate Protection Against Flu

By

Timothy W. Martin

Updated Jan. 11, 2013 8:42 p.m. ET

This season's flu shots are only moderately effective at combating the strains of the virus now circulating, according to government data released Friday, meaning some people will become ill even though they were vaccinated.

ENLARGE

Damien Dancy puts masks on his children Damaya, 3, left, and Damien, 7, this week at a Virginia hospital to help stop the spread of the flu.
Associated Press

The flu vaccine was estimated to be 62% effective in a one-month survey of 1,155 children and adults that ended Jan. 2, 2013, conducted by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The findings are in line with how effective the vaccine has been in previous years. Flu shots are recommended for everyone aged 6 months or older.

"The flu vaccine is far from perfect, but it's still by far the best tool to fight the flu," said CDC Director Thomas Frieden, in a teleconference with reporters. Getting a shot means "you're 62% less likely to be treated for the flu," he said.

Flu was widespread in 47 states in the week ended Jan. 5, up from 41 the week before, the CDC said. The only states without widespread flu are California, Mississippi and Hawaii. Nationally, 20 children have died from the flu. There is no running tally of adult deaths, but the CDC estimates that the flu kills about 24,000 people in an average year.

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Flu season has arrived early and hard this year, with 41 states now reporting outbreaks. Thomas Skinner of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention joins The News Hub with the latest on the growing outbreaks. Photo: Getty Images.

Previously

Still, the rates of doctors' visits for influenza-like illnesses were falling in most regions, though CDC officials couldn't say yet if the flu season had reached its peak.

About 37% of Americans have received a flu shot, and while there have been reports of tight supply in some areas, vaccinations are still readily available, the CDC said. Drugstore chains Walgreen Co. and CVS Caremark Corp.CVS-0.42% each said flu-shot demand has risen sharply in recent weeks. "This is unprecedented traffic for flu shots for this time of year," said a CVS spokesman. Typically, most people get their flu shots in the early fall.

Sick Americans have flocked to emergency rooms in search of relief. This week, during a half-hour span at Hurley Medical Center in Flint, Mich., 10 ambulances arrived with patients who had been turned down by other area hospitals that reached maximum capacity. Ultimately, the majority of the patients weren't found to be gravely sick—and shouldn't have been in the ER at all, said Michael Jaggi, an emergency-room physician at Hurley.

ENLARGE

Flu is rampant in 47 states, and the vaccine isn't perfect—estimated at 62% effective. Alexander Dyjak, 4, gets the shot in Connecticut.
New London Day/Associated Press

"People are paranoid with the flu, but there's no doubt a good portion of this is mild stuff,' " Dr. Jaggi said.

The current flu shot—deemed to be around a 90% match with circulating strains—is about 55% effective against influenza A, the strain most commonly found this season, according to the CDC. The vaccination is 70% effective with influenza B.

Health experts are questioning whether it is the right approach to create a new flu shot every year, based on the projected circulating strains. "We need newer, better vaccines," said Michael Osterholm, the author of several studies on flu shots and director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy.

ENLARGE

Some flu shots undergoing clinical trials around the world are intended to guard against all subtypes of influenza and last for multiple years. But developing such a flu shot would take years of research and around $1 billion in investment, Dr. Osterholm estimates.

"The goal, clearly, is to find a vaccine that you don't have to give every year, works better and can work for more people," said Joseph Bresee, an epidemiologist in the CDC's influenza division.

The seasonal flu arrived about a month earlier this year than in previous years. Nationally, 4.3% of outpatient visits in the first week of 2013 were the result of influenza-like illness, according to the CDC's weekly Flu View report. Some 7.3% of all deaths were a result of pneumonia and influenza, above the epidemic threshold of 7.1% for the first week of the year, according to the CDC.

ENLARGE

While an epidemic, this year's flu season is far from being the worst in recent memory. The hospitalization rate is below the 7.7% peak observed during the height of the 2009 H1N1 pandemic and below the rates observed during recent severe flu seasons.

Dr. Bresee said the early start to this flu season reminds him of 2003-04, when about 48,600 people died from influenza. But that year, the flu shot was an inaccurate match for that year's dominant strain.

Other wintertime viruses beyond the seasonal flu have fueled illness. Public health officials have noted a rise in whooping cough and respiratory syncytial virus, a lung infection that affects young children.

The congestion in emergency rooms reflects how many patients lack a primary-care physician. Also, industry consolidation has meant fewer hospitals and left them less capable of handling sudden surges in demand. Hospital emergency departments received an average of 34,600 visits in 2011—nearly doubling since 1990, when the total was 18,300, according to an annual American Hospital Association survey.

"We're operating more and more as a Just-In-Time hospital system, so we have limited capacity even during the good times," said Andrew Pavia, an influenza expert, who serves on the Infectious Diseases Society of America's influenza advisory group.

Some hospitals are already seeing a slowdown. At Chicago's Rush University Medical Center, about 55 patients a week showed up for flu treatment at the end of December.

But for the first week of 2013, Rush University saw only 35 patients, said Yanina Purim-Shem-Tov, an emergency-room physician there.

Corrections & Amplifications The states without "widespead" outbreak are noted on the map as California, Mississippi and Hawaii. An earlier version of the map incorrectly noted Alabama instead of Mississippi.

A remedy for next year and for strengthening your immune system (the most superior defensive capability beyond any known technology):1. Less meat and dairy. Meat and dairy you eat should be organic and from producers treating animals ethically. A healthy animal is healthier for you. Start buying organic as you can afford it. The more we buy, the more profitable it becomes and volume will mean production inefficiencies and lower costs. Buy "something" ORGANIC every time you shop.2. Read the ingredients on your food. If the list is very short and you can recognize 95% of the items your in good shape, OTHERWISE beware!2. More fruit and vegetables, a wide variety, and as much as possible from your local farms. Again, organic is best because it reduces the toxins used to grow our food.3. Clean water preferably spring water from a reputable source. 4. Stop complaining about your job. Find one you like or dare I say, love! It takes time so start now! Lower stress means a stronger immune system.5. Embrace your spirituality. Just improve. All aspects of your life improve your fitness and thus your immune system. 6. Improve your relationships. If your not growing you are stressed. You know who you are. Your body suffers.7. Get moving. Park far away from the door when you shop, take a ten minute walk at work twice a day, train for tough mudder (www.toughmudder.com) or any other fitness goal that gets you moving again. You'll never be the same and you'll never turn back. Start little by little and be patient.

Every cell in your body is a function of your intake of food, water,air, and exercise right! Quality, quality, quality! Think. Remember also the healthcare system is really the illnesscare system (damage control). I am very thankful for them, but it knows nothing about prevention. THINK!

I am just getting over this nightmare of a flu. Had the shot back in November, but no protection. My doctor is guessing that the effectiveness is south of 50% given the flow of vaccinated patients through his office.

Basic hygiene and courtesy 101: I suspect that just by covering one's face when coughing or sneezing, staying home when sick, and using SOAP to frequently wash your hands would be as effective as the vaccine on a population level. With both the vaccine and common sense hygiene the lives saved and hospitalizations avoided would be even greater. Duh.

Many MDs do not understand conditional probabilities, as suggested in this article. The chance of flue decreases by the effectiveness of the vaccine* the probability of being exposed to a flue virus, not by the effectiveness of the vaccine.

This is the present abusive,unprepared medical system we have today although,most are paying near "double" what they did only a few years ago for failure!

Wait,Obama care kicks in next year when 30-50 million more will swamp the system that doesn't work now!

Of course,there will be less doctors to treat us,it will ultimately cost significantly more as Obama's promise of lower rates,higher quality,deficit lowering Obama Care is exposed for the fraud,the "fairy tale",the "Legacy" that Obama chose over the economic health of an entire country!

I’m somewhat disappointed to hear that government-recommended inoculations of formaldehyde, one of my favorite carcinogens, proffer only “moderate” effectiveness. It seems the bureaucrats are missing the mark on that hopey-changey thingamajig.

"The congestion in emergency rooms reflects how many patients lack a primary-care physician."

Not entirely true. Many times the PCPs have no available appointments for days, and from first-hand experience, there can be a wait of up to 2-3 months for a new patient appt - if the office is even taking new patients. (I have private health insurance.) I don't see how the new health insurance mandate is going to help the already overcrowded PCP / ER situation. (A bit off topic, I suppose, but it raises a good question.)

There are roughly 11,000 homicides by gun a year, including not only accidents and bad guys killing victims but also lots of bad guys killing bad guys. That is particularly true for homicides by handgun. That criminal fratracide does reduce the cost of police catching them, courts convicting them, and jails isolating them from society for years at a time (and criminals killing each other with firearms generally do go to jail for years at a time, due to involvement of the firearms).

Flu deaths on the other hand serve no useful purpose, unless you consider killing off grandma and grandpa to be "a good thing." However you view that, flue deaths run 24,000 a year, and can surge to 48,000 a year when the vaccine does not have the right mix of strains. That is well above deaths due to guns even when you add in all the suicides accomplished with the latter.

People will die of something. Deaths attributable to maintaining a well-armed population capable of keeping government a servant of the people rather than their fearful master would seem a modest price to pay, particularly in comparison to deaths attributable to the flu which has less redeeming social value. Given the casualties involved in the Revolutionary War more than 2 centuries ago, when the population of North America was a small fraction of that today, I think the Founding Forefathers would agree with that.

Notice that the writer describes the problem as "influenza like", NOT simply influenza. That distinction is not trivial. Without it, it's a recipe for mass panic. It could easily be changed to "bad colds", and it would be more accurate. Calling it influenza calls up images of REAL influenza in the early 20th century that killed perhaps 20 million world wide.

The CDC always includes the number of deaths, of course, but the fact that most (90%?) such deaths occur among the elderly is only mentioned as if it were an afterthought. There are doubts.

For example, is there an unusual spike of such deaths around the flu season? As I remember, there are less than might be expected, but this does not that mean the vaccine saved them. Among the elderly, there's a tendency for the healthier ones to be more likely to get vaccinated, precisely the ones least likely to die from the flue. Statistics have to be weighted to account for lower rates, and there are indications they aren't.

I LOVE having the option of a flu shot at a pharmacy. Approximately $29 from a registered nurse and my insurer picks up the tab. I had the flu shot this year from my doctor when I had a physical; the line item cost was $80 submitted to my insurer - what a rip-off! Most years, in September-October I walk into the nearest Walgreen's (before all of the sickly, coughing, hacking college students) and fill out my request (without an appointment) for the flu shot. A nurse examines my vitals, gives me my shot, updates my records and I am out the door. Thank you Walgreen's. This is the most efficient part of our fragmented so-called health-care system.

Really Harry. How much profit does Walgreen and CVS make on flu shots. If you have any real fact plese let us know. Perhaps we could all boycott them and make them give free shots for everyone. And the people administering the shots will give them without getting paid; after all becoming ill is no one's fault and therefore all treatment should be free. The makers of the vaccine will give it to Walgreen and CVS for nothing too. You should be able to get a free taxi ride to the place where you choose to get a flu shot. In fact, just live like the lilies of the field.

A lot of it is over-reaction to flu symptoms too. Most people who show in an ER with flu are in the wrong place. Urgent care would be a better choice for most. Doing nothing, but resting and treating symptoms at home, would be the right choice for everyone except the frail elderly and small children or those with complicating conditions.

One of the biggest ER problems in the rest of us in healthcare. I will send people to the ER instead of handling it on the phone due to one thing, I DON'T WANT TO GET SUED! Although I am 98% sure of what the patient needs. It is called CYA.

I got a flu shot, and still wound up in the hospital with "flu-like" symptoms.

Does anyone know if someone can catch the flu more than once a season? I would imagine that, having had the flu (and, in my case, a flu shot), the "antibodies" of the ailment are still with you long after the bathroom is cleaned up, and would prevent further contagion.

In 2004, I was unable to get a flu shot. I spent the Christmas season with the flu. In December 2008, I got the shot very late (I had already been exposed). I got the flu, and then pneumonia. I was in the hospital for 10 days, and I developed asthma. I now get a flu shot as early as possible, EVERY year. If you work in a school, you get exposed to influenza.

My parents, who are in their 80s, always get their flu shots. They ended up catching the flu anyway this season (possibly from their grandchildren). However, their cases were much milder - probably because they had received their shots. I believe that most people SHOULD get flu shots. Schoolchildren are most likely to spread the flu and should definitely be vaccinated. The immune response of young children also means that the flu shot will be more effective for them than it will be for elderly people.

Well of course you won't get a flu shot. And, more than likely you won't get a pneumonia shot. And, maybe you will be lucky and never get the flu.

Or, in the event that someone brings a strain of SARS over from China, or a strain of H1N1 and you have no immunity to any kind of flu, you will get very ill and die.

Further, why bother with modern medicine at all? It's all a racket. Look at people in the 1800's. They didn't have all those new fangled CAT SCANS, MRI's, vaccinations, surgeries, blood pressure pills and treatment for diabetes and the average person did pretty well without them. They died at 42 years old, but hey, look at the money they saved.

Further, I hope you don't take car manufacturers seriously when they tell you to change your oil, or have a 30,000 mile check up. What do they know? They just want to sell you services.

And, finally, don't have any mammograms and PAP smears. Think of the money that you will save the Obama adminstration. If you and several million others follow the protocal and drop dead from the flu, you will save the government hundreds of millions of dollars on Sociall Security and other medical benefits.

So, I applaud your stand. Shakespeare said it best. "If ignorance is bliss, 'tis folly to be wise!"

Funny thing, when they had the outbreak of SARS in Toronto because no one likes to get flu shots or wear seatbelts, no on in the US contracted it!

But, hey, what does the CDC know? What do the learned doctors with degrees from Harvard and Yale know? What does anyone else know?

I call this wonderful state of enlightenment that you are in, "kissing the rear end of ignorance!"

Enjoy your new found wisdom!

P.S. When Boeing gives the airlines the proper maintenance protocol to follow on their aircraft, I hope airlines don't waste the money on needless engine overhauls, airfram inspections, and such money robbing nonsense such as that.

And, when they publish the flight manuals for take off and landing procedures and require pilots to train for several hours in simulators that cost $20,000 an hour, it's all a racket, too.

I agree Maria. It's no use. If you have the shot, you might still get the flu. Perhaps not as full blown! Besides, the GPs make money out of it because the vaccines supplied to clinics and surgeries are subsidised by govt so the more patients they get to have the flu vaccine, the more subsidy they receive for administering it. Plus, the Pharmaceuticals also make money of it. Better to get the flu and become immune since the vaccine introduces the strain into the body.

By golly Maria you are right. Physicians, pharmaceuticals do make money from the flu vaccine. Car dealers make money selling you a car. Your grocery store makes money selling you food. Your utility provider makes money providing you with electricity, water, and gas. Of course, if you have a job Maria, I'm sure you work for nothing not wanting to make money for the labor or product you produce. Unless of course, you think everything in life should be free--or at least everything connected with your health.

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