2018 SEC Win Totals

Much like the early Week 1 game predictions, here’s how this annual exercise works. First, the May prediction of what the SEC win totals should be – without looking at where the line is set – and then the real line from the South Point Hotel & Casino will be added.

Where’s the possible value? Where are the lines likely to be off?

Of course, this can and will change by the time this is done for real in August. But for now …

SEC East

Florida Gators

The Gators will get more offense under Dan Mullen and the defense will be every bit up to the task. They’ll win at least three of their first four games – beating Charleston Southern, Kentucky and Colorado State – and they’ll likely take down Vanderbilt on the road, beat Idaho, and split at home against Missouri and South Carolina. They’re good enough to win two more.What The Early Win Total Should Be: 8Early Win Total: 7.52017 Record: 4-7
– Schedule Breakdown & Analysis

Georgia Bulldogs

Where’s the sure-thing loss? There isn’t one, but watch out for the road trip at LSU, and be really, really scared of the SEC opener at South Carolina. The Dawgs will be fantastic, but in an improved East, and with Auburn to deal with, there are just enough dangerous showdowns to think they could lose at least twice.What The Early Win Total Should Be: 10Early Win Total: 10.52017 Record: 13-2
– Schedule Breakdown & Analysis

Kentucky Wildcats

Central Michigan, Murray State, Vanderbilt and Middle Tennessee. The Wildcats have the defense to win all four of those, but they need the offense to rise up to push for a winning season. That will be a fight – there are way too many tough road games – and with South Carolina, Mississippi State and Georgia, getting to six wins will be a fight.What The Early Win Total Should Be: 6Early Win Total: 5.52017 Record: 7-6
– Schedule Breakdown & Analysis

Missouri Tigers

The Tigers should be able to get to five wins without an issue – as long as they don’t whiff any 50/50 home games. But they’ll need to come up with a few road victories over a Purdue here, or a Tennessee there, or even against a Florida to get past seven wins.What The Early Win Total Should Be: 7Early Win Total: 7.52017 Record: 7-6
– Schedule Breakdown & Analysis

Related

South Carolina Gamecocks

Go ahead and love yourself some Gamecocks – they’re about to be one of the East’s bigger players. They get Georgia at home, don’t have to face Alabama, LSU or Auburn from the West, and have a slew of winnable road games. There will be a clunker along the way, but even if you give them losses at Clemson, at Florida, and against Georgia, this is still at least an eight-win team.What The Early Win Total Should Be: 8Early Win Total: 72017 Record: 9-4
– Schedule Breakdown & Analysis

Tennessee Volunteers

All it will take is a little bit of an offense, and the coaching change to Jeremy Pruitt, to be a few wins better. The Vols will beat ETSU, UTEP and Charlotte, and they’ll likely get by Kentucky at home, and they’ll at least split against Missouri and at Vanderbilt. They’ll be good enough to come up with another win or two along the way, too, against one of the decent teams on the slate.What The Early Win Total Should Be: 6.5Early Win Total: 5.52017 Record: 4-8
– Schedule Breakdown & Analysis

Vanderbilt Commodores

The Commodores will be okay, but there can’t be losses to either Middle Tennessee or Nevada – two dangerous games – or there will be a big problem. They’ll beat Tennessee State, and they’ll be good enough to upset Ole Miss or Tennessee at home, but it’ll be a struggle to get anywhere near six wins.What The Early Win Total Should Be: 4.5Early Win Total: 42017 Record: 5-7
– Schedule Breakdown & Analysis