December 08, 2010

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An internal Republican poll out of Missouri shows why Lt. Gov. Peter Kinder thinks he has a shot at upending the relatively popular Jay Nixon in 2012.

The American Viewpoint survey, taken in late September, found that while Nixon remains personally popular in the state, his reelection bid will be competitive because of the national mood and a shift toward the GOP in the once-bellwether state.

That's based on a model where Republicans made up 31 percent, Democrats made up 27 percent and independents comprised 39 percent of the sample.

The release of the poll also virtually cements the decision of Kinder to pursue the governorship and not the U.S. Senate race, as some had suggested he might.

While Democrats are likely to take issue with the head-to-head numbers, Kinder's pollster argues that the bigger point is that Nixon will be one of the most vulnerable governors in 2012 because of a confluence of data.

Just 34 percent in the survey favor reelecting Nixon, and that number drops to just 16 percent among those "definitely" supportive of a second term. Only 38 percent of Missourians believe the state is on the "right track."

And these numbers come long before Kinder has established a narrative or taken any shots at Nixon, according to Viewpoint pollster Randy Gutermuth.

"There's not a lot of intensity behind Nixon's favorable rating and his job approval. A definite reelect of 16 percent is pretty problematic for anybody," he said.

Kinder has never lost an election and outperformed his Republican colleagues in 2008, winning by 3 percent while John McCain only edged out Barack Obama by 3,900 votes. He also outperformed McCain in St. Louis by more than 3 percent and has a strong relationship with urban Democrats, including Mayor Francis Slay.

Gutermuth continued: "And you have a governor that hasn't accomplished a whole lot."

Pressed why Nixon remains personally popular, Gutermuth argued, "Nobody's hit him. I could give you Robin Carnahan's numbers two years out and they looked very similar to Jay Nixon's."

It should be noted that this survey was taken in the heat of the 2010 fall campaign, when anti-Democratic sentiment was running at his highest. Six-hundred likely voters were called between Sept. 26-28. It has a margin of error of 4 percent.

Oddly enough, a Public Policy Polling survey found Nixon in the opposite position: Less popular, but in a better position against Kinder. PPP pegged the governor's favorable rating at 44 percent and found him leading Kinder by 8 points.