Here’s Your 2018 BAFTA Nominations and What They Mean For the Oscars

We’re in the thick of awards seasons and today brings the latest crop of nominees to scrutinize, celebrate, and whine about. The British Academy of Film and Television Arts announced their nominations this morning with plenty of notable takeaways, many of which are far from surprising. For one, the Best Director nominees are, yup, super white and super male – can we get queen Natalie Portman to present this category again please? The2018 BAFTA Awards nominations also give us a good idea of what to expect from the Oscars.

Guillermo del Toro’s The Shape of Water earned the most noms with a grand total of 12. The fish-human romance earned nominations for Best Film, Director – signalling del Toro is likely our Oscar Director frontrunner – Actress (Sally Hawkins), Supporting Actress (Octavia Spencer), Original Screenplay and a whole slew of (much-deserved) technical nominations. The next two films that scooped up the most accolades are Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri and Darkest Hour, both earning nine noms. It’s the former we should be keeping an eye on though, quickly emerging as our Oscar Best Picture frontrunner. As Kyle Buchanan over at Vulture notes, the Martin McDonagh film nabbed double BAFTA nominations in the Supporting Actor slot for Woody Harrelson and Sam Rockwell, and has been soaring high with multiple guild noms; but more on that in a minute. Another highlight is Blade Runner 2049, which scored a ton of nominations, many well-deserved in the technical categories.

Though the BAFTAs consider international films for their awards, their nominations tend to include more British productions – you’ll note Paddington 2 has three nominations, and you can definitely bet Hugh Grant won’t be getting a Supporting Actor nom at the Oscars. Yet still, it’s a shock to see Steven Spielberg’s The Post entirely shut out from the British Academy – Annette Bening made it in the Best Actress slot for British co-production Film Stars Don’t Die in Liverpool over Meryl Streep, as did Jamie Bell in place of Tom Hanks’ much-more buzzed about performance in the Pentagon Papers drama. Between this and the SAG shut-out, things aren’t looking good for The Post come Oscars. Dee Rees’ Mudbound is also nowhere to be seen on the BAFTAs list, which could have at least had a shot in the Cinematography or Supporting Actress (Mary J. Blige) categories.

Alright, we know why you’re here – what does this all mean for the Oscars? There is some overlap between Academy and BAFTA membership, roughly 500 members as of 2017 according to BBC America. And the British awards have at times been a bellwether for the Oscars Best Picture winner, with both voting bodies selecting the same winner for a six-year streak between 2008 and 2013. But it’s not just the BAFTAs that have single-handedly bumped up Three Billboards to frontrunner status. Sure, the film won the Globe on Sunday, but those awards rarely predict the Oscars. The Frances McDormand-led black comedy has been sweeping up industry nominations left, right, and sideways, which gives us significant insight into how Academy members may vote. It may very well be the film that takes home the gold come Oscar night, sure to be quite a contentious win, but should another envelope snafu go down, the 2018 Best Picture could be Lady Bird or Get Out.

Keep checking back as new awards are announced and ScreenCrush editors make their Oscar predictions throughout the next couple months. See the full list of 2018 BAFTA Awards nominees below.