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Introducing the CVI - Punch Card Portfolio Newsletter

I write a weekly investment newsletter. This newsletter involves the development of a focused portfolio of undervalued securities. The subscription price is $12 per month (cancel any time). Every investment idea I recommend will be one I purchase for my own portfolio. If you have questions prior to subscribing shoot me an e-mail (Swizzledxxx@gmail.com)

Please note I'm running a low-tech operation and that the newsletter is sent by me via e-mail. There will be a delay between when you pay and when you receive your first e-mail (usually a couple of hours).

HOUSTON—America will halve its reliance on Middle East oil by the end of this decade and could end it completely by 2035 due to declining demand and the rapid growth of new petroleum sources in the Western Hemisphere, energy analysts now anticipate.

The shift, a result of technological advances that are unlocking new sources of oil in shale-rock formations, oil sands and deep beneath the ocean floor, carries profound consequences for the U.S. economy and energy security. A good portion of this surprising bounty comes from the widespread use of hydraulic fracturing, or fracking, a technique perfected during the last decade in U.S. fields previously deemed not worth tampering with.

Jeremy Grantham, who has consistently identified overpricing in the US equity markets – he flagged both the Dot Com bubble and the irrational pricing that preceded the financial crisis, for instance – said last week that US stocks are “a little expensive” and bonds are “disgusting.” But his sternest warning to investors concerned the longer-term threat posed by global resource constraints.

Abnormally high corporate profits are the primary reason for Grantham’s contention that stocks are overvalued. Reversion to the mean is the core expectation that undergirds his firm’s investment philosophy, and when profit margins revert to their historical averages, he argued, investors will suffer weak returns.

Grantham is the co-founder and chief investment strategist of Grantham Mayo van Otterloo (GMO), the Boston-based asset manager. His was one of the keynote presentations at last week’s Morningstar Investment Conference, held in Chicago.

LONDON – At their meeting in Rome last Thursday, the leaders of the eurozone’s four largest economies agreed on steps towards a banking union and a modest stimulus package to complement the European Union’s new “fiscal compact.” Those steps are not enough.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel resisted all proposals to provide relief to Spain and Italy from the excessive risk premiums that both countries are now confronting. As a result, the EU’s upcoming summit could turn into a fiasco, which may well prove lethal, because it would leave the rest of the eurozone without a strong enough financial firewall to protect it from the possibility of a Greek exit.

Speaking at a Brussels conference back in April 2011, Eurogroup President Jean Claude Juncker notably stated during a panel discussion that "when it becomes serious, you have to lie." He was referring to situations where the act of "pre-indicating" decisions on eurozone policy could fuel speculation that could harm the markets and undermine their policies' effectiveness.1 Everyone understands that the authorities sometimes lie in order to promote calm in the markets, but it was unexpected to hear such a high-level official actually admit to doing so. They're not supposed to admit that they lie. It is also somewhat disconcerting given the fact that virtually every economic event we have lived through since that time can very easily be described as "serious". Bank runs in Spain and Greece are indeed "serious", as is the weak economic data now emanating from Europe, the US and China. Should we assume that the authorities have been lying more frequently than usual over the past year?

When former Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan denied and down-played the US housing bubble back in 2004 and 2005, the market didn't realize how wrong he was until the bubble burst in 2007-2008. The same applies to the current Fed Chairman, Ben Bernanke, when he famously told US Congress in March of 2007 that "At this juncture… the impact on the broader economy and financial markets of the problems in the subprime markets seems likely to be contained."2 They weren't necessarily lying, per se, they just underestimated the seriousness of the problem. At this point in the crisis, however, we are hard pressed to believe anything uttered by a central planner or financial authority figure. How many times have we heard that the eurozone crisis has been solved? And how many times have we heard officials flat out lie while the roof is burning over their heads?

Thursday, June 21, 2012

CHICAGO (Reuters) - Depressed shares of Chesapeake Energy Corp are worth more than $50 a piece, and will eventually top $100, the head of Southeastern Asset Management, its top shareholder, said on Thursday.

OKLAHOMA CITY--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Jun. 21, 2012-- Chesapeake Energy Corporation (NYSE:CHK) today announced the appointment of five new independent directors to its reconstituted nine-member Board of Directors.

Archie W. Dunham, former Chairman of ConocoPhillips and former Chief Executive Officer of Conoco, has been appointed by the Board as Chesapeake’s new independent Non-Executive Chairman. Mr. Dunham has had no previous relationship with Chesapeake. Aubrey K. McClendon has relinquished the position of Chairman but remains a Director and will continue to serve as Chesapeake’s Chief Executive Officer and as President.

Chesapeake’s Board also appointed four other new independent directors: three proposed by Southeastern Asset Management (SAM), its largest shareholder with a 13.9% ownership stake, and one proposed by Carl C. Icahn, its second largest shareholder with a 7.6% stake. The new directors proposed by SAM are Bob G. Alexander, R. Brad Martin and Frederic M. Poses. The new director proposed by Mr. Icahn is Vincent J. Intrieri.

These five new directors replace Richard K. Davidson, Kathleen M. Eisbrenner, Frank Keating and Don Nickles who have resigned and Charles T. Maxwell who retired at the annual meeting on June 8, 2012. Following the annual meeting, Mr. Davidson and V. Burns Hargis submitted their resignations when they did not receive support of a majority of the shares voted. The Board accepted Mr. Davidson’s resignation, but given Mr. Hargis’ current role as Chairman of the Audit Committee, and reflecting input from SAM and Mr. Icahn, the Board has declined to accept his resignation, at this time, to permit completion of the previously announced review of the financing arrangements between Mr. McClendon (and the entities through which he participates in the Founder Well Participation Program) and any third party that has had or may have a relationship with the company in any capacity. Mr. Hargis will continue to lead the review, but is not expected to remain Chairman of the Audit Committee. Upon completion of the review, the Board will revisit his resignation.

The other directors remaining on the Chesapeake Board are Mr. McClendon, Louis A. Simpson, who was proposed by SAM in 2011 and will now become Chairman of the Nominating and Governance Committee, and Merrill A. (“Pete”) Miller who was serving as Lead Independent Director. With the appointment of an independent Non-Executive Chairman, the role of Lead Independent Director has been eliminated and Mr. Miller will become Chairman of the Compensation Committee. Final Board Committee assignments will be made by the reconstituted Board. As previously announced, the Board will also take the necessary actions to enable shareholders to elect the entire Board of Directors at the 2013 annual meeting of shareholders.

Pete Miller said, “On behalf of the Board, I would like to thank Dick, Kathleen, Frank and Don for their substantial contributions to Chesapeake. I also want to welcome Archie Dunham as Non-Executive Chairman. During the search process, it became readily apparent to the entire Board, and to SAM and the other shareholders with whom we consulted, that Archie is the right leader for this Board based on his deep knowledge of the energy industry, experience as an outside director of major natural resources companies and, most importantly, his reputation for integrity, independence, strong leadership and a focus on shareholder value. We look forward to working with Archie and our four other new Board members, all of whom have the right blend of broad experience and sound judgment to guide Chesapeake and provide strong accountability going forward.”

Archie W. Dunham said, “I am honored to join the Chesapeake Board in the new role of independent Non-Executive Chairman and I am excited about the exceptional opportunities ahead for this high-potential company. Under Aubrey’s leadership, Chesapeake has built an extraordinary portfolio of natural gas and oil assets in creating one of the world’s leading energy companies. As I evaluated this opportunity, I was attracted by the clear mandate to provide strong oversight while working closely with the company’s exceptional management team, talented employees, and reconstituted Board in a situation where we have the opportunity to create substantial value for all shareholders in the years ahead.”

Aubrey K. McClendon, Chesapeake’s Chief Executive Officer, said, “I am pleased to welcome Archie Dunham to Chesapeake’s Board and look forward to working with him, our continuing Board members and our new Board members, Bob Alexander, Brad Martin, Fred Poses and Vince Intrieri, in our common mission to deliver to our shareholders the substantial net asset value we have created in the past seven years as Chesapeake has helped lead the unconventional resource revolution in the energy industry. Archie is extraordinarily well regarded both inside and outside of the industry, and we are confident he is the right person to lead our Board as we complete the transition from the asset identification and capture phase of Chesapeake’s history to now harvesting those assets. I also want to express my deep appreciation to Dick, Kathleen, Frank and Don for their professionalism and dedication while serving on our Board - they have made substantial contributions to Chesapeake’s development and we will miss them.”

O. Mason Hawkins, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of Southeastern Asset Management, the Company’s largest shareholder, said, “Chesapeake has the assets and the opportunity to become the U.S.'s pre-eminent, low cost energy producer and to significantly grow its value per share. We believe this board will prudently guide, assist and complement management's efforts to capture its potential.”

Carl C. Icahn, Chesapeake’s second largest shareholder, said, “We believe Chesapeake is now heading in the right direction. With the Board providing strong oversight, the management team will be sharply focused on realizing the value of its assets and the company will be well positioned to create substantial value for shareholders going forward.”

Biographies of New Directors

Archie W. Dunham, 73, is the retired Chairman of ConocoPhillips. He was Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer of Conoco Inc. from 1999-2002, after being elected President and CEO in 1996. He became Chairman of ConocoPhillips Company in 2002. He was instrumental in orchestrating Conoco’s IPO separation from DuPont in 1998, the largest in US history, and in negotiating the merger of equals between Conoco Inc. and Phillips Petroleum Company in 2002. Mr. Dunham currently serves on the Board of Directors of Union Pacific Corp and Louisiana-Pacific Corp, where he is the Chair of the Finance and Audit Committees. He is also a member of Deutsche Bank’s Americas Advisory Board. Previously, Mr. Dunham served on the boards of DuPont, Conoco, ConocoPhillips, Phelps Dodge and Pride International where he chaired essentially all the major board Committees. He has continuously served on major corporate boards for nearly 30 years. Mr. Dunham currently serves on the Commission on National Energy Policy and is a Board member of the CEO Forum. He is the past Chairman of the National Association of Manufacturers, the United States Energy Association and the National Petroleum Council. In 2005, he was appointed by President Bush to the President’s Commission on White House Fellowships. In 2002, he was appointed by President Bush to the President’s Commission on Critical Infrastructure. He served in the US Marine Corps from 1960-64 and currently serves as a member of the Marine Corps Heritage Foundation. Mr. Dunham holds a Bachelor’s degree in geological engineering and a Master’s degree in Business Administration from the University of Oklahoma.

Bob G.Alexander, 78, is the founder of Alexander Energy Corporation and served as its Chairman and Chief Executive Officer from 1980 until its sale to National Energy Group in 1996, at which time he became a Director of National Energy Group. He later served as Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of National Energy Group from 1998 until its sale in 2006 to SandRidge Energy. Earlier in his career, Mr. Alexander was Vice President and General Manager of the Northern Division of Reserve Oil, Inc. and President of Basin Drilling Corp., subsidiaries of Reserve Oil and Gas Company. He currently serves on the Board of Directors of Transatlantic Petroleum Corporation and CVR Energy, Inc. Mr. Alexander received a Bachelor of Science degree in Geological Engineering from the University of Oklahoma.

Vincent J. Intrieri, 55, has been employed by Icahn related entities since October 1998 in various investment related capacities. Since January 1, 2008, he has served as Senior Managing Director of Icahn Capital L.P., the entity through which Carl C. Icahn manages investment funds, and since October 1, 2011, he has served as Senior Vice President of Icahn Enterprises G.P. Inc., the general partner of Icahn Enterprises L.P. He has been a director of Icahn Enterprises G.P. Inc. since 2006. In addition, since November 2004, he has been a Senior Managing Director of Icahn Onshore LP, the general partner of Icahn Partners, and Icahn Offshore, the general partner of Icahn Master, Icahn Master II and Icahn Master III, entities through which Mr. Icahn invests in securities. He is currently the chairman of CVR Energy, Inc., and also serves on the boards of Federal−Mogul Corporation, and Dynegy Inc. He is also chairman of the board and a director of PSC Metals, Inc., (a privately held, non-listed company). He is a former director of Motorola Solutions, Inc., Lear Corporation, WCI Communities, Inc., WestPoint International, Inc., National Energy Group, Inc., XO Holdings LLC, American Railcar Industries, Inc. and Viskase Companies, Inc. Mr. Intrieri received his Bachelor’s degree in Accounting from The Pennsylvania State University and was a certified public accountant.

R. Brad Martin, 60, is former Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of Saks Incorporated, a position he held from 1989 to 2007. Mr. Martin currently serves on the Boards of Directors of FedEx Corporation, First Horizon National Corporation and Dillard’s Inc, where he is Chairman of the Audit Committee. He is a former Director of lululemon athletica, Gaylord Entertainment, Inc. and Ruby Tuesday, Inc. Mr. Martin received his Bachelor of Science in Political Science from the University of Memphis and an MBA from Vanderbilt University.

Frederic M. Poses, 69, is the Chief Executive Officer of Ascend Performance Materials, a private company. Previously, he was Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of Trane Inc. (formerly American Standard Companies, Inc.) from 1999 until its acquisition by Ingersoll Rand in 2008. He previously spent 30 years at AlliedSignal, Inc. and predecessor companies from 1969 to 1999, most recently as President and Chief Operating Officer. He is Non-Executive Chairman of the Board of Directors of TE Connectivity Ltd. and a Director of Raytheon Company. He is a former director of Centex Corporation and WABCO Holdings Inc. Mr. Poses received his Bachelor's degree in Business Administration from New York University.

When it comes to industries like tobacco, beer, and spirits, few investors are better versed than Thomas Russo.

A partner at Gardner Russo & Gardner in Lancaster, Pa., Russo manages $5 billion, including the $500 million Semper Vic partnership that has generated a compound annual return of 12.3% since 1992, versus 8.3% for the S&P 500 index.

Mistakes are a frequent topic of discussion in our world. It’s not unusual to see investors criticized for errors that resulted in poor performance. But rarely do we hear about mistakes as an indispensible component of the investment process. I’m writing now to point out that mistakes are all that superior investing is about. In short, in order for one side of a transaction to turn out to be a major success, the other side has to have been a big mistake.

There’s an old saying in poker that there’s a “fish” (a sucker, or an unskilled player who’s likely to lose) in every game, and if you’ve played for an hour without having figured out who the fish is, then it’s you. Likewise, in every investment transaction you’re part of, it’s likely that someone’s making a mistake. The key to success is to not have it be you.

Sinopec, the Chinese oil and gas group, is considering bidding for billions of dollars worth of assets owned by Chesapeake Energy, the US gas producer.

Fu Chengyu, head of Sinopec, was in Oklahoma in the US this week in connection with the company’s due diligence on the Chesapeake assets, according to people familiar with the move.

By buying assets rather than making a bid for the company itself Sinopec hopes to minimise the sort of political backlash that forced Cnooc to drop its $18.5bn bid for Unocal in 2005, bankers and oil executives say.

MIDLAND, Tex. — The desolate stretch of West Texas desert known as the Permian Basin is still the lonely domain of scurrying roadrunners by day and howling coyotes by night. But the roar of scores of new oil rigs and the distinctive acrid fumes of drilling equipment are unmistakable signs that crude is gushing again.

And not just here. Across the country, the oil and gas industry is vastly increasing production, reversing two decades of decline. Using new technology and spurred by rising oil prices since the mid-2000s, the industry is extracting millions of barrels more a week, from the deepest waters of the Gulf of Mexico to the prairies of North Dakota.

At the same time, Americans are pumping significantly less gasoline. While that is partly a result of the recession and higher gasoline prices, people are also driving fewer miles and replacing older cars with more fuel-efficient vehicles at a greater clip, federal data show.

Tuesday, June 19, 2012

Russia launched a desperate bid today to save nuclear talks between six world powers and Iran from collapse and lessen the chances of a Middle East conflict that could draw in the United States.

Failure to reach an agreement that limits Iran's nuclear activities would increase the chances that Israel, already skeptical of diplomatic efforts to prevent Iran from building a nuclear weapon, could launch an attack, a scenario that potentially could pull in the U.S. and spread chaos throughout the Middle East.

It only makes sense that a great place to look for investment ideas is in the portfolios of market beating investors. Without question, Bill Ackman of Pershing Square is one of those great investors.

What makes Ackman's stock holdings an exceptionally great place to look for ideas is that he runs a very concentrated portfolio. That means that when Ackman takes a position he is risking a big percentage of his investor's capital. Therefore every idea has to be both exceptionally good, and pretty low risk and is likely being analyzed more thoroughly than stocks in the portfolio of a more diversified investor.

"Shorting is not a criminal trial. It doesn't have to be beyond a reasonable doubt. There just has to be a preponderance of evidence." -- James Chanos, February 2011 interview

China's Coming Crisis

"We certainly weren't the first on this idea," Chanos tells me at his offices in April of 2011 about the biggest short position of his life: The People's Republic of China. Chanos first spoke publicly about his grand stake in China over a year and a half ago on CNBC's Squawk Box in December 2009. "Right now, we're as bearish on China as we've ever been," he says. He followed that with a presentation at St. Hilda's College, Oxford in January 2010, "The China Syndrome: Warning signs ahead for the global economy."

Chanos argued that China, fearing a sharp slowdown from the financial crisis, pumped credit into asset growth -- mainly real estate but new roads and high-speed rail, too. There were "classic pockets of overheating, of overindulgence" he said in his presentation. Fixed asset investments as a percentage of China's gross domestic product (GDP) were exceeding 50 percent -- a "sh-a chén bào" (sandstorm) of money, he said. The stimulus was massive: $586 billion, or 14 percent of GDP (the U.S. package was $787 billion, or 6 percent of GDP). With state-owned enterprises controlling 50 percent of industrial assets, and not being driven by the need to make profits, and local party officials dictating the real estate development process, large-scale capital projects were growing "sillier by the day," including rising industrial and manufacturing overcapacity. There were empty cities, such as Ordos, and lonely malls, such as the New South China Mall. News reports showed new buildings toppling from shoddy construction. It was the latest chapter in China's history of credit-fueled booms and busts. China was "letting a thousand Dubais bloom," he quipped. "Go to Dubai and see what happened. It was... what I call the 'Edifice complex.'"

There is an unconventional revolution going on in the oil business. BP recently released its 2011 statistical review of world energy and had this to say about global oil production:

Annual global oil production increased by 1.1 million b/d, or 1.3%. Virtually all of the net growth was in OPEC, with large increases in Saudi Arabia (+1.2 million b/d), the UAE, Kuwait and Iraq more than offsetting a loss of Libyan supply (-1.2 million b/d). Output reached record levels in Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Qatar. Non-OPEC output was broadly ﬂat, with increases in the US, Canada, Russia and Colombia offsetting continued declines in mature provinces such as the UK and Norway, as well as unexpected outages in a number of other countries. The US (+285,000 b/d) had the largest increase among non-OPEC producers for the third consecutive year. Driven by continued strong growth in onshore production of shale liquids, US output reached the highest level since 1998.

Yes, the United States had the largest increase in production year on year again. Five years ago with American oil production in a thirty year decline trend, very few people could have imagined that we would now be on the upswing or the third consecutive year.

BUFFALO — Over the years, newspaper owners have built monuments to themselves in the form of giant buildings, statues and plaques commemorating their roles in their communities and the country at large. At the headquarters of The Buffalo News here, a sand-colored office building across the river from a fragrant Cheerios factory, the only visible sign of the owner is a small photograph hanging in the office of the publisher, Stanford Lipsey, signed, “To the best in the business, Warren.”

Warren is, of course, the billionaireWarren E. Buffett, but the modesty of his physical presence at the paper — he has not visited the paper in the last eight years — understates his interest in the paper, which a unit of his company, Berkshire Hathaway, bought in 1977.

Mr. Buffett’s views on newspapers have been a hot topic of late. Three years after telling his shareholders that he would not buy a newspaper at any price, Mr. Buffett has moved aggressively into the business, buying 63 papers and revealing a 3 percent stake in Lee Enterprises, a chain of mostly small dailies based in Iowa.

This was the argument for shale and natural gas prices as well though......

The price of Brent crude fell to five-month lows last week, as fears rose about the health of the global economy and the world's largest oil exporter, Saudi Arabia, said it would overproduce in order to drive prices lower.

There are solid grounds to believe this trend will continue as the crisis in the euro zone deepens and tensions between Iran and the West ease, particularly after the International Atomic Energy Agency confirmed Tuesday that an accord had been reached over nuclear inspections.

However, many industry observers say the price of oil is unlikely to fall far below current levels for long, because the cost of producing every last barrel of oil needed to meet demand has risen so high.

"Costs are still at a very high level because of the complexity of marginal fields," said Pierre Sigonney, chief economist at French oil company Total SA. "We don't expect oil prices to go much below $100 a barrel."

The marginal cost of oil production, defined as the cost of pumping the last and most expensive barrel required to satisfy demand, is fundamentally linked to long-term oil prices. If the oil price falls below the marginal cost, there is no incentive to produce that last barrel of oil, so demand will remain unsatisfied until consumers are willing to pay more.

The close relationship between the two was demonstrated from 2001 to 2010, when the average annual price of international oil benchmark Brent crude rose 228%, while analysts at Bernstein Research estimate the marginal production cost of the world's 50 largest listed oil companies increased 229%.

In 2011, the marginal cost of oil production was $92.26 a barrel for the 50 largest listed oil and gas companies and will reach $100 a barrel next year if it continues to follow the long-term trend, said Bernstein in a research note.

FORTUNE -- David Herro seems awfully relaxed for a man who has more than $1 billion invested in European banks. It's a sunny morning in late May, and I'm sitting across from the boyish 51-year-old fund manager in his downtown Chicago office. He's giving me his full attention, but I can't stop glancing at the headlines blinking on the Bloomberg terminal behind him. The euro is about to hit a two-year low. Greece is on the brink of disaster. Spain's real estate market is in shambles, and Italian sovereign debt is as fragile as stained glass. The global economy is roiling, and Herro is positively beatific.

"Eventually they're going to get these problems solved," he says. "If you look at the economic history of the world, problems come and problems go. There are problems, and they do have to be dealt with. And our view is that all these problems are manageable."

One of three companies planning a $4.5-billion liquefied natural gas terminal at Kitimat on Thursday announced an "outstanding" new shale gas discovery in British Columbia's remote and largely unexplored Liard Basin.

The find by Apache Corp. is estimated to contain enough gas in itself to justify doubling the size of the Kitimat terminal it's proposing with partners Encana Corp. and EOG Resources. The company is calling it the best and highest quality shale gas reservoir in North America, based on the volume of gas three test wells are producing.