Monday, December 16, 2013

The Grit and Grind Grizzlies may be reaching the end of the line in Memphis, and Alex Theoharides (@Minne_Pop) examines why.

We have reached the point in the NBA season where teams can be
divided into definite playoff teams, potential playoff teams, and
definite lottery teams. The Memphis Grizzlies are one of the most
difficult teams to classify.

The Grizz had an eventful 2012
season. Last August, the team was sold to billionaire Robert J. Pera and
a team of bros headlined by Justin Timberlake (you know, this guy).
One of Pera’s first moves was to hire ESPN stat whizz John Hollinger in
December to be the team’s Vice President of Basketball Operations. A
month later, the Grizz traded Rudy Gay to Toronto in a deal that
essentially netted them Tayshaun Prince and Ed Davis. The deal was
controversial because of Rudy Gay’s unique position in the game behind
the game: stat heads hate his inefficient offensive shooting numbers,
former ballers, like then head coach Lionel Hollins, appreciate his
diverse skill set and overall talent. Despite Hollins and team
management butting heads throughout the remainder of the season, Memphis
managed to finish fifth in the Western Conference. Led by Defensive
Player of the Year, Marc Gasol,
Zach Randolph, and Mike Conley, the team won a tough series against the
LA Clippers in the first round of the playoffs, before easily beating a
depleted OKC Thunder in the second round. Then they ran into the buzz
saw offense of the San Antonio Spurs in the Western Conference Finals
and were swept in 4 games.

As a Wolves’ fan, I tend to view all
other teams through the lens of my fandom. Essentially, I want to know
if they will help or hurt the Wolves’ chances of making the playoffs.
Going into this season, it was clear that in a loaded Western Conference
at least two teams would need to slip in order for the Wolves to make
the playoffs. So far, the Grizzlies have been one of those teams.

In
the off-season, they essentially fired head coach Lionel Hollins and
replaced him with lead assistant, David Joerger. Joerger is held in high
regard in the basketball community, and he was given a great deal of
credit for the Grizzlies’ success over the previous few seasons.
However, firing a head coach after he leads the team deep into the
playoffs usually signals a changing of the guard. The insinuation was
that Memphis had reached its peak under the current regime and needed to
start planning for the future.

Going into the season, Memphis had
largely the same lineup as last year. However, their biggest issue has
been injuries. In November, Marc Gasol underwent an MRI that revealed a
MCL strain in his left knee. The MCL strain did not require surgery, but
it did require Gasol to sit out indefinitely while his knee healed.
Without Gasol in the lineup, the Grizzlies lack potency on offense and
their captain on defense. They have also dealt with an injury to Quincy Pondexter,
who is set to miss the remainder of the season with a stress fracture
in his foot. Despite possessing the geekiest name in NBA history,
Pondexter was an important piece for the Grizzlies due to his ability to
stretch the floor on offense.

Although
it’s still relatively early in the season, Memphis’ probability of
making the playoffs may have already slipped away. In fact, according to
Vice President, John Hollinger’s numbers, they only have a 2.0% chance
of making the postseason.

The NBA is a mercurial league,
particularly for small market teams. The smart teams (and Memphis is a
very smart team) know that there is little value in being average. I
have watched too many Wolves’ teams fall apart over the holidays not to
see Memphis’ fall coming. Look for the Grizzlies to go on a long and
brutal losing streak over the next few weeks, followed by team
management exploring trades for veterans such as Zach Randolph, Tony
Allen, and Jerryd Bayless. Some fans will struggle to forgive the team
for breaking up the “Grit and Grind” squads of the past two seasons, but ultimately it is in the best interest of the Grizzlies to begin to plan for next year.

Thoughts of a Wolves’ Fan:

Mike
Conley is one of the most dynamic point guards in the league. The
Grizzlies don’t need to look far in their hypothetical rebuild. Any team
built around Marc Gasol and Mike Conley will be successful.

If
I were building an NBA team, I would rather have Chris Paul than Tony
Parker as my point guard. With that being said, in San Antonio’s system
Tony Parker is a better player than Chris Paul is on the Clippers.

Marco
Belinelli was quietly one of the biggest moves in the off-season. He
was a key player for the Bulls last year, who was able to give them an
offensive threat without Derrick Rose in the lineup. This season, he has
fit seamlessly into the Spurs’ system, with an insane effective field goal percentage of 64% (credit: Basketball-Reference.com).

What’s
happening in Golden State? Earlier this year, they looked like a
legitimate contender. But ever since Andre Iguodala went down they have
struggled. In December they’ve lost 4 times, including two losses to
Houston, a loss to Charlotte, and a loss to Phoenix. Hollinger’s numbers
only give them the 8th best probability of making the playoffs in the
West. And rumor has it that David Lee might be on the trading block.

The
best player I’ve watched this past week is Kevin Love, who is keeping
the Wolves’ offense alive despite Kevin Martin’s knee injury and the
team’s overall woeful shooting numbers. He scorched the Spurs for 42 points and completely dominated Zach Randolph on Sunday night.

The
worst (good) player I’ve watched is Josh Smith. He looked lost against
the Wolves, struggling to space the floor on offense and struggling to
defend wing players on defense.