"It's going to be a while" before ultra HD takes hold, says Steve Koenig, an analyst with the Consumer Electronics Association. "It will probably be the back half of this decade."

By then, prices will fall to levels consumers find reasonable and there will be content being produced in the new standard, he says. Today there is no ultra HD content available, but the sets make today's high-definition video look even sharper.

Another reason why ultra HDTVs are primed for takeoff latter this decade is because consumers don't want to buy new TVs now. They feel like they just upgraded to high-definition TVs and will need a few more years to elapse before they're ready to go ultra, Koenig says.

Industry officials refer to the new sets as 4K TV, but consumers find that technical term confusing. Many people say 4K sounds like a foot race or a computer term, Koenig says.

In mid-October, the CEA announced that it would now call 4K TVs "ultra high-definition" or "ultra HD" sets.

Ultra HDTVs have more than 8 million pixels, four times the resolution of today's 1080p sets. These next-generation TVs will be featured prominently at the annual International Consumer Electronics Show in Las Vegas Jan. 8-11, Koenig says.

Shipments of ultra HDTVs will be tiny this year and next, says Riddhi Patel, an analyst with NPD DisplaySearch. Most early models will be shipped to consumer electronics stores as demonstration units to show off the cutting-edge TVs, she says.

DisplaySearch estimates that just 4,000 ultra HD sets will ship worldwide this year and 154,000 in 2013. In 2014, companies will ship 1 million ultra HDTVs, but they will still account for just 5% of global TV shipments, she says. Patel sees 4K TVs being built in 50-inch-and-larger sizes.

By 2016, ultra HDTVs could account for 18% of the TV market, with 4.8 million units shipped, she says.

First came high-definition TV, then "full HD." Now TV makers are beginning the march toward "ultra high-definition" sets that have four times the picture resolution of today's HDTVs.

But don't chuck your current TV just yet. It will take a few years for the new sets to reach mainstream pricing and for content to emerge that takes advantage of the higher-resolution screens.

"It's going to be a while" before ultra HD takes hold, says Steve Koenig, an analyst with the Consumer Electronics Association. "It will probably be the back half of this decade."

By then, prices will fall to levels consumers find reasonable and there will be content being produced in the new standard, he says. Today there is no ultra HD content available, but the sets make today's high-definition video look even sharper.

Another reason why ultra HDTVs are primed for takeoff latter this decade is because consumers don't want to buy new TVs now. They feel like they just upgraded to high-definition TVs and will need a few more years to elapse before they're ready to go ultra, Koenig says.

Industry officials refer to the new sets as 4K TV, but consumers find that technical term confusing. Many people say 4K sounds like a foot race or a computer term, Koenig says.

In mid-October, the CEA announced that it would now call 4K TVs "ultra high-definition" or "ultra HD" sets.

Ultra HDTVs have more than 8 million pixels, four times the resolution of today's 1080p sets. These next-generation TVs will be featured prominently at the annual International Consumer Electronics Show in Las Vegas Jan. 8-11, Koenig says.

Shipments of ultra HDTVs will be tiny this year and next, says Riddhi Patel, an analyst with NPD DisplaySearch. Most early models will be shipped to consumer electronics stores as demonstration units to show off the cutting-edge TVs, she says.

DisplaySearch estimates that just 4,000 ultra HD sets will ship worldwide this year and 154,000 in 2013. In 2014, companies will ship 1 million ultra HDTVs, but they will still account for just 5% of global TV shipments, she says. Patel sees 4K TVs being built in 50-inch-and-larger sizes.

By 2016, ultra HDTVs could account for 18% of the TV market, with 4.8 million units shipped, she says.

The CEA predicts that wholesale ultra HDTV prices in the U.S. will fall from $7,000-$10,000 in 2013 to $2,000-$2,500 in 2015 and below $2,000 in 2016.

U.S. consumers are very price sensitive when buying TV sets, Patel says. Price is more important to shoppers than features, she says.

A lot of moving parts have to fall into place for ultra HDTV to become mainstream, says Michelle Abraham, an analyst with Multimedia Research Group. A big part is making content that takes full advantage of the super-sharp displays.

A newspaper is displayed on a Sony 4K LCD TV set at the CEATEC Japan 2012 trade show last month. View Enlarged Image

The technology is ready on the display side and professional video-capture side. But the editing and production gear for 4K TV programming is not ready.

A new video compression standard poised for approval next year also is critical, she says. That standard, High Efficiency Video Coding (HEVC), will be necessary before the Blu-ray Disc format can be updated for ultra HD, she says. Consumers will need new Blu-ray Disc players to take advantage of the format change, Abraham says.

TV makers are looking to ultra HD sets as a way to generate profit in the television business again. TV makers such as Sony, Panasonic (PC) and Sharp are struggling because LCD TVs, the bulk of the industry today, have become commodity items.

Ultra HD likely will be a premium feature for "super jumbo displays," 65 inches and larger, Koenig says. But few "households can accommodate or want to accommodate that large a display," he said.

Koenig says ultra HD could converge with a new display technology called organic light-emitting diode. OLED displays have been seen as a future TV technology because they are energy-efficient and superthin. But manufacturers are still learning how to build large OLED displays.

Even though ultra HDTVs are a few years away from being mainstream, you're going to hear more about them next year, starting with the CES show. Hardware makers will be looking to position themselves as leaders in the new display standard.

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