2020 Poll: Biden's Lead Narrows as Warren Surges into Second

Former Vice President Joe Biden (D) could be losing his secure footing as the Democrat primary’s solid frontrunner, an Economist/YouGov Poll released Wednesday revealed.

The survey, conducted July 7 – 9, 2019 among 1500 U.S. adult citizens (1140 registered voters) asked likely Democrat primary voters: “If the Democratic presidential primary or caucus in your state were held today, who would you vote for?”

While Biden continued to lead the pack with 22 percent support, Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) landed firmly in second place with 18 percent support. Sen. Kamala Harris (D-CA) followed in a close third, garnering 15 percent support.

Interestingly, Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT), who has effectively lost his solid second place status after a lackluster debate performance last month, is in fourth place with 12 percent support and tied with the “not sure” option, which 12 percent of respondents chose.

The survey shows Mayor Pete Buttigieg (D) maintaining his status as a second-tier candidate with six percent support. He is followed by Rep. Tulsi Gabbard (D-HI) with three percent support, and Sen. Cory Booker (D-NJ) and Julián Castro (D), who both secured two percent support. The remaining candidates garnered one percent support or less.

Eight-three percent of polled Democrats say they are satisfied with the 20+ choices, while 17 percent said they would like more.

Respondents were also asked, “Are there any presidential candidates that you would be disappointed if they became the Democratic nominee?”

Marianne Williamson (D) topped the list with 29 percent, followed by Mayor Bill de Blasio (D) with 22 percent, Andrew Yang (D), with 21 percent, Sanders with 20 percent, and Biden with 19 percent. Only nine percent said they would be disappointed if Harris secured the nomination, and seven percent said they would be disappointed if Warren did.

The latest survey confirms a shakeup in the Democrat presidential primary. Sanders has failed to hold on to second place, Biden’s lead continues to narrow, and Warren and Harris are experiencing a parallel surge. Harris, undoubtedly, has experienced the most significant post-debate spike. The Economist/YouGov poll taken prior to the first Democrat debate showed Harris with seven percent support.

The margin of error for the survey is +/- 2.6 percentage points when adjusted for weighting and +/-3 percent for registered voters.