With the exception of Pakistan, publics in the Asia-Pacific region are either mixed or negative in their assessments of Iran. Unfavorable views of the Islamic Republic are especially widespread in Japan and Australia (73% and 67%, respectively). Even in Pakistan, opinion of Iran has somewhat soured, with negative ratings increasing from 8% to 16% over the past year.

Iran’s image also suffers in Latin America, where a median of 61% across six countries express unfavorable views. Publics in Africa, while negative on balance, are more mixed in their assessments of Iran. A median of 39% in nine African nations surveyed view Iran in a negative light, 32% view the nation positively, and a quarter do not offer any opinion. In Nigeria, attitudes differ among the predominant religious groups: 43% of Muslims express favorable views of Iran while only 23% of Christians hold that view.

These are among the key findings from two surveys by the Pew Research Center, one conducted from October 30, 2013 to March 4, 2014, among 14,564 respondents in nine Latin American countries, and another from March 17 to June 5, 2014, among 36,430 respondents in 34 countries.

It is worth noting that these gaps in favorability do not necessarily mean that non-Catholics view Francis unfavorably. In fact, in most countries with sizable differences, non-Catholics are more likely to have no set opinion of the pope than a negative one.

The biggest differences among favorable views of Francis appear in Latin American countries. While the pope receives extremely positive marks from Catholics throughout the region, wide gaps exist between Catholics and non-Catholics in Mexico (-63 percentage points), Nicaragua (-58), El Salvador (-56), Venezuela (-52), Peru (-47), Colombia (-46) and Brazil (-45). However, non-Catholics in these countries generally give no rating for Pope Francis, rather than say they do not like him.

In the U.S. and Europe, the favorability gap is less substantial. Spain (-25), the U.S. (-19), Poland (-17), Germany (-17) and France (-12) show smaller differences in support for the pope across the denominational divide. Both Catholics and non-Catholics in all of these countries overwhelmingly voice favorable attitudes towards Francis.

A Popular Pope

Majorities or pluralities of the general public in 28 of the 43 countries surveyed say they have a positive view of Pope Francis. Europe and Latin America give the pope particularly high ratings – majorities in almost every country in these two regions view the pope favorably.

Eight-in-ten or more also express support for the pope in Poland (92%), Italy (91%), France (88%), Spain (84%) and Germany (82%). A smaller portion, yet still a majority, in the United Kingdom (65%) view Francis favorably. Roughly half the Greeks (49%) agree, though nearly a quarter (24%) have an unfavorable view and about three-in-ten (28%) do not rate him.

His favorability is lower in other regions, though many say they cannot rate him, have never heard of him or do not have an opinion. In Asia, broad majorities in the Philippines (88%) and South Korea (86%) express positive views of Francis. At least four-in-ten give favorable views in Thailand (49%), Bangladesh (47%), Vietnam (41%) and Japan (40%). But majorities in Indonesia (57%), India (61%), Malaysia (76%) and Pakistan (85%) do not have an opinion of the pope at all.

A similar pattern arises in Africa. Majorities in Uganda (70%), Tanzania (70%) and Kenya (56%) – countries with the highest percentages of Catholics in the African nations surveyed – give the pope a favorable rating. However, four-in-ten or more in Ghana (40%), Nigeria (46%), South Africa (52%) and Senegal (55%), where more people tend to be Protestant or Muslim, offer no opinion.

Many in the Middle East do not offer a rating of the pope. But of those who have an opinion, there are interesting differences between countries. Francis is most popular in Lebanon (62% favorable), where more than a quarter of the population is Catholic. And half in Israel give the pope favorable marks. (Pope Francis visited Israel and the Palestinian territories about two weeks after the survey was conducted.) However, the pope receives his most negative ratings in Egypt (35% unfavorable), Jordan (34%) and Turkey (32%). Like many other countries with small Catholic populations, the pope is relatively unknown in Tunisia (71% no rating) and the Palestinian territories (63%).

For more on religion in Latin America, see the Pew Research Center’s report, “Religion in Latin America” released by the center’s Religion & Public Life Project on November 13, 2014. Information on methodology for these countries can be found here and topline results can be found here. ↩

These are among the findings of a recent survey by the Pew Research Center, conducted in 44 countries among 48,643 respondents from March 17 to June 5, 2014.

Greatest Danger to the World

Across the nations surveyed, opinions on which of the five dangers is the top threat to the world vary greatly by region and country, and in many places there is no clear consensus.

Around a quarter of Americans say the growing gap between the rich and the poor (27%) is the greatest threat to the world today, with 24% saying this about religious and ethnic hatred and 23% expressing concern about the spread of nuclear weapons. Fewer say pollution and other environmental problems (15%) or AIDS and other infectious diseases (7%) are the world’s top problems.

Inequality is cited as the top problem by 54% in Spain and 43% in Greece, countries where the effects of the Eurocrisis have been especially severe. Somewhat fewer in Germany (34%), Italy (32%), Poland (32%) and France (32%) name the growing rich-poor gap. In the United Kingdom, ethnic and religious hatred (39%) is considered the greatest threat, followed by inequality (25%).

In Russia and Ukraine, both surveyed after the Russian annexation of Crimea but before months of fighting in eastern Ukraine between Ukrainian and pro-Russian forces, nuclear proliferation is the number one danger. More than three-in-ten say this in Ukraine (36%), while 29% hold that view in Russia.

In Lebanon, 58% identify religious and ethnic hatred as the top threat, the highest level of concern in any surveyed country. Religious hatred is the top concern among Lebanese Christians (56%), Shia Muslims (62%) and Sunni Muslims (58%) alike. But concern about this threat is also prevalent in the Palestinian territories, Tunisia, Egypt and Israel.

In Japan, which remains to this day the only population to experience a nuclear attack, 49% say the spread of nuclear weapons is the world’s greatest threat, the highest rating for this issue across the 44 countries surveyed. Three-in-ten in Pakistan, which borders nuclear rival India, say the spread of those weapons is of paramount danger, garnering the highest spot. In South Korea, the gap between the rich and the poor is the largest issue (32%), mirroring findings from many of the other advanced economies surveyed.

Africans are generally united in the view that AIDS and other infectious diseases are the top threat to the globe. Africa has the highest rates of HIV/AIDS prevalence in the world and the recent Ebola outbreak has spread in the continent’s west. Ugandans are the most worried about AIDS (44%), followed by Tanzanians (41%), South Africans (35%), Kenyans (29%) and Senegalese (29%). In Nigeria, where Boko Haram terrorists in the restive north of the country are creating havoc, 38% say religious and ethnic hatred is the biggest problem for the world.

Overall, in the 28 countries surveyed in 2007 and 2014, religious and ethnic hatred, along with inequality, are seen as the most pressing issues for the world, with the spread of nuclear weapons not far behind. Fewer people within these countries say pollution and AIDS are the biggest threat.

However, there have been substantial changes in the top choice within some countries over the last decade. For example, in the U.S., when the question was first asked in 2002 just months after the 9/11 attacks and discussion of the spread of WMDs in the lead up to the Iraq War, a third of Americans said nuclear proliferation was the greatest threat to the world. In 2007, after years of fighting in Iraq and Afghanistan, religious and ethnic hatred became the top concern (28%). And now, six years after the Great Recession, with abundant debates about the growing gap between the rich and the poor, inequality is considered the greatest danger.

Meanwhile, Middle Easterners have become more worried about religious hatred. In 2007, a regional median of 24% across six countries named religious prejudice as the greatest danger. By 2014, a median of 32% across those same Middle Eastern countries said this. And in Lebanon, the percentage choosing ethnic hatred jumped 19 points since 2007, while concern has more than doubled in Egypt.

Age and Ideological Differences

Generally, there is little variation by age in views about the top global danger.

But in Japan, 18-29 year olds are less concerned about the spread of nuclear weapons than those 50 and older, possibly due to the fact that people under 30 were born at least four decades after nuclear bombs were dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki in 1945. Meanwhile, young people in Kenya and South Africa are more concerned about AIDS & disease compared with their elders.

The survey was administered before the Islamic State (“ISIS” or “ISIL”) took over large swathes of Iraq and Syria and posted prisoner executions online and before the Ebola outbreak in West Africa became a high-profile international story. ↩

Overall, optimism is linked with recent national economic performance. Countries that have enjoyed relatively high levels of growth in recent years also register some of the highest levels of confidence in their children’s economic futures.

Looking ahead, people in the emerging and developing world see better opportunities at home than abroad. Majorities or pluralities in 30 of the 34 emerging and developing nations surveyed say they would tell young people in their country to stay at home in order to lead a good life, instead of moving to another country.

A good education and hard work are most often seen as the keys to getting ahead in life. This view is especially prevalent in emerging and developing nations, where most see economic opportunity expanding. Still, many also believe success can be determined by things outside a person’s control, such as luck or having a wealthy family.

Despite the long-term optimism that exists in many countries, there are widespread concerns about inequality. Majorities in all of the 44 nations polled say the gap between rich and poor is a big problem facing their countries, and majorities in 28 nations identify this as a very big problem. More than seven-in-ten hold this view in Greece, Spain and Italy – countries that faced significant economic challenges during the last several years. But even in the emerging and developing nations that have enjoyed tremendous growth over the last couple of decades, there is a consensus that those at the top are reaping the gains while others are being left behind.1

These are among the key findings of a survey by the Pew Research Center, conducted in 44 countries among 48,643 respondents from March 17 to June 5, 2014. While this report focuses largely on differences and similarities between economically advanced, emerging and developing nations, the survey also finds significant differences by region.

For instance, Asians are particularly optimistic about the next generation’s financial prospects. Fully 94% of Vietnamese, 85% of Chinese, 71% of Bangladeshis, and 67% of Indians think today’s children will be better off than their parents. Africans and Latin Americans are also on balance optimistic, while Middle Easterners tend to be pessimistic. And in Europe and the United States, pessimism is pervasive.

The survey also highlights how Americans are different from many others around the world on questions related to individualism, a value often associated with American exceptionalism. Fifty-seven percent of Americans disagree with the statement “Success in life is pretty much determined by forces outside our control,” a considerably higher percentage than the global median of 38%. Similarly, Americans place an especially strong emphasis on the value of hard work – 73% think it is very important to work hard in order to get ahead in life, compared with a global median of 50%.

Emerging and Developing Economies See Brighter Future

People in emerging and developing nations are more optimistic for the next generation than publics in advanced economies. Still, there is a wide range of attitudes within each group.

About half or more in 16 of the 25 emerging markets surveyed say children in their nation will be better off financially than their parents, including at least seven-in-ten in Vietnam, China, Chile and Brazil. People in Middle Eastern emerging economies, however, are much more skeptical. In Jordan, Turkey, Egypt and Lebanon, roughly a third or fewer say the nation’s children will be better off financially than their parents. Poles are also considerably pessimistic about the next generation’s opportunities, an outlook which may be influenced by the economic crisis in the European Union.

Developing economies are divided on this question. Roughly half or more in Bangladesh, Nicaragua, Senegal, Ghana and Uganda say their children will be more successful than the older generation. Fewer than four-in-ten agree in Tanzania, Kenya, El Salvador and the Palestinian territories.

In some countries, optimism for the next generation has changed significantly in just the past year and these shifts in attitudes appear to be related in part to changing views about the country’s economy. Today, 51% of Ugandans say children will be better off financially than their parents, compared with 39% last year. Over the same time period, Ugandans also became significantly more positive about the current economy (+18 percentage points). Optimism for young people improved since 2013 as well in Senegal (+12), South Africa (+11), Germany (+10), Pakistan (+8), Egypt (+7) and the UK (+6). At the opposite end, hope for the nation’s youth in Venezuela declined by 18 points in the past year as positive ratings of the economy also fell by 15 points. Optimism about the children’s future also decreased over the past 12 months in Kenya (-19), Malaysia (-14), the Philippines (-11), El Salvador (-8) and .

Perhaps because most publics see a bright future for their nation’s youth, people in emerging and developing nations generally believe that it is better for young people who want to have a good life to stay in their home country, rather than move to another country.

Majorities or pluralities in 30 of the 34 emerging and developing nations surveyed say young people should stay at home to be successful, including more than eight-in-ten in Thailand, Indonesia, Vietnam, Malaysia and Tanzania.

In just seven countries do at least four-in-ten say the next generation has more opportunities abroad. This includes publics that have recently witnessed massive political and economic upheaval, such as the Egyptians, worsening ethnic conflict, such as the Lebanese, and severe gang violence, such as the Salvadorans. Poles are also more inclined than most publics to say that young people should move abroad to have a good life. This may reflect the open borders between Poland and other EU countries as well as dissatisfaction with economic conditions at home.

Success May Be Out of Our Control

Majorities or pluralities in 28 of the 44 countries surveyed agree that success in life is pretty much determined by forces outside our control. People in developing and emerging markets (medians of 56%) are somewhat more likely to believe their fate is out of their hands than those in advanced economies (51%).

In most developing economies, majorities say success is determined by outside forces, including 74% in Bangladesh and 67% in Ghana. Nicaraguans are the least likely to agree among developing countries.

Majorities in 15 of the 25 emerging markets surveyed also think their fate is out of their hands, including six-in-ten or more in Turkey, Vietnam, South Africa, Malaysia, Poland, Lebanon and Nigeria. Latin American countries are generally the least likely among emerging markets to agree their future is determined by outside forces, including fewer than four-in-ten in Colombia, Mexico and Venezuela.

Meanwhile, in advanced economies, roughly half or fewer in six of the 10 countries surveyed agree that success is out of our control. Americans are the least likely to say they are not the masters of their fate (40%), one of the lowest percentages among the 44 countries surveyed.

In eight of the nine developing countries surveyed, having a good education tops the list of keys to success. About seven-in-ten or more in Nicaragua (78% rate as 10), El Salvador (72%), Senegal (72%) and Ghana (69%) say education is very important to advancing in life. Only in Uganda is luck seen as roughly equal to education in determining one’s future (67% luck vs. 64% education).

Similarly, the dominant opinion among emerging markets is that having a good education is very important to being successful, a view held by more than eight-in-ten Venezuelans (86% rate as 10), Colombians (85%), Chileans (85%) and Argentines (84%). Working hard is the second most common response in most countries. Poland, Jordan and Egypt are exceptions among the emerging markets – these publics say luck is at least as important, if not more so, as education or hard work for getting ahead in life.

Advanced economies are a bit more divided between education and hard work as the keys to success. Education is the top response among five of the 10 countries – Spain (71% rate as 10), Germany (61%), Israel (41%), Italy (39%) and Greece (31%) – and work ethic is the top in four – the U.S. (73%), UK (60%), Japan (42%) and France (25%). The percentage of Americans who say hard work is very important to getting ahead in life is among the highest across all 44 countries. South Koreans are the only public where knowing the right people is the most commonly cited key to success (rated at the top of the scale by 39%).

Even though few rank knowing the right people, being lucky, being from a wealthy family, or being male as a 10 on the 0-10 importance scale, many people do rate these items highly with a score of seven or more. For example, while a global median of just 33% rank being lucky at 10, 75% rate it at seven or higher. In general, emerging and developing publics are somewhat more likely than advanced economies to believe that all of these items are important for getting ahead.

Being a male does not top the list of keys to success, but there is a large gender gap on the question. In 32 of the 44 countries surveyed, men are significantly more likely than women to say gender is very important to getting ahead. The gender gap on this issue tends to be larger in the emerging and developing economies surveyed.

Inequality a Major Problem

A global median of 60% say that the gap between rich and poor is a very big problem in their country. Concern is somewhat higher among developing economies and emerging markets (median of 60% in each), but is also shared by people in advanced economies (56%).

Nonetheless, despite this high level of worry about inequality, the issue only ties or tops the list of economic problems in four of the 44 countries surveyed. In general, people in advanced economies tend to worry more about public debt and unemployment than inequality, while those in emerging markets and developing economies are more concerned about inflation and jobs. (For more on views about economic issues, see this September Pew Research report)

Publics Fault Government Policies

The top culprit for income inequality cited by publics around the world is their national government’s economic policies. A global median of 29% say their government’s policies are to blame for the gap between the rich and the poor, while the amount workers are paid is a close second at 23%. Globally, people place less blame on the educational system (11%), a lack of individual hard work (10%), trade between countries (8%) and the structure of the tax system (8%).

Advanced economies in particular lean toward the notion that their governments are to blame for inequality (median of 32%). The Greeks (54%), Spanish (52%) and South Koreans (46%) are government’s harshest critics. Significant percentages among advanced economies also fault workers’ wages for the gap between the rich and the poor, including 29% in Japan and 26% each in France and Germany. The Americans and British are two of the few publics to blame individuals’ lack of hard work (24%) about as much as they do their government’s policies (24% in U.S., 23% in UK).

Emerging markets are more divided. Pluralities in nine of the 25 countries surveyed blame their government for inequality in their country, including roughly four-in-ten or more in Ukraine (45%), India (45%), Lebanon (43%), China (43%), Tunisia (43%), Turkey (42%) and Nigeria (39%). Meanwhile, pluralities in another six countries say workers’ wages are the primary scapegoat. Latin American publics – such as Brazilians (44%), Chileans (39%) and Colombians (39%) – are particularly likely to blame inadequate take-home pay for the gap between the rich and poor.

People in developing economies are also split between blaming the government for income inequality in their country and faulting workers’ wages. Pluralities in Kenya (36%), Ghana (29%) and Tanzania (29%) say inequality is their government’s fault, while Salvadorans (32%) tend to blame the amount workers are paid. Nearly equal percentages in the Palestinian territories, Bangladesh, Senegal and Uganda say both the government and wages are the culprits. Nicaragua (31%) is the country with the highest percentage who say a lack of individual hard work is the problem.

Many Say Low Taxes Are the Answer

Pluralities or majorities in 22 of the 44 countries surveyed say to reduce inequality it is more effective to have low taxes on the wealthy and corporations to encourage investment and economic growth rather than high taxes on the wealthy and corporations to fund programs that help the poor. Publics in 13 countries prefer the high tax option.

In most advanced economies, people who say they are very concerned about inequality are particularly supportive of income redistribution to reduce the gap between the rich and poor. There is also a large ideological divide over taxes in Europe and the U.S. In general, individuals on the left are much more likely than those on the right to prefer high taxes on the wealthy and corporations. For example, 71% of those on the left in Spain support redistribution, compared with 45% of people on the right. In the U.S., 70% of liberals say high taxes are more effective to combat inequality while just 33% of conservatives agree.

The prevailing view in most emerging markets surveyed is that low taxes on the rich and businesses to stimulate growth are a better way to address inequality. Roughly six-in-ten or more express this opinion in Brazil (77%), Argentina (60%), Vietnam (60%) and the Philippines (59%). In just five of the 25 emerging countries do pluralities or majorities pick high taxes as the preferred means of reducing the gap between the rich and poor, including 57% in Jordan, 53% each in Egypt and Chile, 48% in Ukraine and 42% in China.

Developing economies also lean more toward low taxes on the wealthy and corporations to encourage investment rather than high taxes for redistribution. At least half prefer low taxes in Uganda (64%), Ghana (57%), Kenya (52%) and Nicaragua (52%). El Salvador is the only developing economy where a majority (58%) chooses high taxes.

Free Market Seen as Best, Despite Inequality

Despite the fact that most people are very concerned about the gap between the rich and the poor in their country, majorities across the globe are willing to accept some inequality to have a free market system. A global median of 66% say most people are better off under capitalism, even if some people are rich and some are poor.

Publics in emerging markets also generally support the free market. More than half in 21 of the 25 countries surveyed agree that most people are better off in a free market system even if there is some inequality, including roughly three-quarters or more in Vietnam, China, Nigeria, Turkey, Malaysia and the Philippines. Support is much lower in Colombia, Jordan, Mexico and Argentina. Argentines are the least likely to see the benefits of capitalism among all 44 countries surveyed.

Advanced economies are somewhat more divided over the free market. At least seven-in-ten in South Korea, Germany and the U.S. say most people are better off under capitalism, but fewer than half in Greece, Japan and Spain agree. In most advanced economies, people who say the gap between the rich and poor is a very big problem are much less supportive of the free market than those who worry less about inequality.

In some countries, lower income and less educated individuals are less likely to express support for capitalism than higher income and more highly educated people. The gap between lower and higher income people on this question is particularly large in Peru (-23 percentage points), Greece (-20) and France (-17). And the education differences are especially wide in Peru (-20), Pakistan (-18) and Nigeria (-16).

]]>Faith and Skepticism about Trade, Foreign Investmenthttp://www.pewglobal.org/2014/09/16/faith-and-skepticism-about-trade-foreign-investment/
Tue, 16 Sep 2014 21:45:22 +0000http://www.pewglobal.org/?p=31335Trade and foreign investment engender both faith and skepticism around the world, according to a new Pew Research Center survey of 44 nations.

Global publics generally agree that international commercial activity is a good thing, particularly people in developing and emerging economies.

Publics across a diverse range of advanced, emerging and developing economies overwhelmingly say that international trade and global business ties are good for their country.1 A global median of 81% among the nations surveyed hold such views. People also generally voice the opinion (a median of 74%) that it is beneficial for their economy when foreign companies build new factories in their country.

Developing countries provide the strongest support across the board for foreign investment, trade and the benefits to be derived from globalization. A median of 87% of those surveyed in the developing world say trade is good for the economy, including 47% who say it is very good. Fully 85% see foreign companies building plants in their country as beneficial. In addition, 66% say growing international business ties create jobs and 57% say foreign companies buying domestic companies is good. And 55% voice the view that trade increases wages.

A median of 78% in emerging markets see trade as beneficial, including 25% who say it is very good. And 52% say trade creates jobs, while a plurality believes it leads to higher wages (45%). Such emerging market sentiment may reflect the experience in China and elsewhere, where growing international business ties have been associated with more employment opportunities and higher incomes.

However, overall support for trade in emerging markets has waned slightly in recent years. Among the 13 emerging market countries surveyed in both 2010 and 2014, the median view that international trade and business ties are good has dipped from 84% four years ago to 77% today. This may, in part, be due to the fact that the annual rate of export growth by the emerging markets surveyed slowed from an average of 14% in 2010 to 3% in 2013, according to the World Bank.

Views of the impact of trade on prices are among the most striking findings from this new survey. Most economists contend that trade lowers prices for consumers. But half of those in developing countries (a median of 50%) and a plurality (42%) in emerging markets say trade actually increases the prices of products sold. Publics in advanced economies are divided on the topic.

These are the results of a Pew Research Center survey conducted among 48,643 respondents from March 17 to June 5, 2014.

The Champions of Trade

The benefits of trade are strongly appreciated in developing and emerging markets.

Among all countries surveyed, Tunisians (87%), Ugandans (82%) and Vietnamese (78%) are the most likely to say trade creates new employment. Just 5% of Tunisians and Vietnamese fear that trade destroys jobs.

Ugandans (79%), Bangladeshis (78%) and Lebanese (77%) have the greatest faith that trade leads to higher wages. Only 12% of Ugandans, 14% of Bangladeshis and 7% of Lebanese voice the view that growing international business ties undermine domestic incomes.

Roughly six-in-ten Chinese (61%) also see growing international business ties as a way to improve local incomes. Such sentiment may be rooted in China’s recent experience. Wages have grown by an average of more than 10% annually for more than a decade at a time when the country’s merchandise exports were rising an average of 15% per year.

People in emerging and developing countries such as Bangladesh (69%), Tanzania (68%), the Philippines (66%) and Kenya (66%) are also the most open to foreigners buying their local companies. Roughly a third or less in those nations see such foreign investment as a bad thing.

The Trade Doubters

Some of the greatest public skepticism about trade and foreign investment is found in the United States. In 2002, 78% of Americans held the view that growing trade and business ties with other countries was a good thing. This sentiment was roughly comparable to that voiced at the time in the other 14 nations surveyed every year between 2002 and 2014.

But then Americans’ mood began to change. By 2007, before the Great Recession hit, the U.S. public’s belief in the benefit of growing international business ties had fallen 19 percentage points to 59% and would tumble further to 53%, in 2008. Faith in the value of trade remained fairly steady worldwide during this time period. By 2010, global belief in the efficacy of trade was at 84%, while the U.S. number recovered to only 66%. Since then, the global median has slid to 76%, pulled down by eroding confidence in trade in some emerging markets, while views in the U.S. have remained relatively stable at 68% in 2014.

But Americans are not alone in voicing doubts about trade and foreign investment. Publics in a number of other advanced economies – in particular France, Italy and Japan – stand out for their skepticism. These nations matter because the four account for nearly a quarter (24%) of world merchandise imports and around a fifth (21%) of world services imports. Protectionist sentiments in any of these societies, if acted upon, can reverberate around the world.

A global median, excluding those four countries, of just 19% hold the view that trade destroys jobs. But 59% of Italians, 50% of Americans, 49% of French and 38% of Japanese see trade as destructive of employment. Just 21% of the global public in the survey hold the view that trade lowers wages. But 52% of Italians, 47% of the French, 45% of Americans and 37% of Japanese say trade undermines domestic incomes. And 46% of the world public voices the view that foreign companies buying domestic firms is bad for their country. Fully 76% of Japanese, 73% of Italians, 68% of French and 67% of Americans judge foreign-led M&A harshly.

Notably, the French and Americans manifest some of the only demographic differences on trade and investment-related concerns. Women more than men express the opinion that trade hurts employment in the U.S. (55% to 46%) and in France (54% to 45%). In both countries, older people, those ages 50 and above, are less enthusiastic about trade in general than younger people, those ages 18 to 29. Older people in the U.S. and France are also more likely than younger people to say trade destroys jobs. Similarly, lower income Americans and French are more fearful trade will decrease employment than are their fellow countrymen with upper incomes.

Implications for Major Trade Deals

The U.S., Japan and France are the first, third and fifth largest economies in the world. Japan and the United States are the two principal protagonists in efforts to negotiate the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) among a dozen countries from Asia, North America and South America that border on the Pacific Ocean. France and the United States are negotiating the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) along with 27 other European Union members. Governments’ objective in doing these deals is to spur economic growth and job creation and to boost incomes.

American, French, Italian and Japanese views are out of step with those of their TPP and TTIP counterparts on a number of trade and investment issues. Americans and Japanese are far less likely than publics in other TPP countries (a median of 55%) to hold the view that growing international business ties will create new employment, a politically sensitive issue in each country. And French (24%), Americans (20%) and Italians (13%) are less likely than their TTIP negotiating partners (a median of 50%) to agree that trade leads to more jobs. Americans, French, Italians and Japanese are also more skeptical than others in the two sets of trade talks about the impact of trade on wages and the value of foreigners buying local companies.

1. Trade Broadly Viewed as Beneficial

There is a widely shared public consensus around the world that growing trade and business ties between one’s own country and other nations are a good thing. This view is held by men and women, by rich and poor, by young and old, by those who are well educated and by less educated people and by people across the political spectrum. A majority in each of the 44 countries surveyed — in most cases an overwhelming majority — voice the view that such globalization is good for their nation.

Among those African economies surveyed, a median of 87% say trade is good, including 47% who voice the view that it is very good for their country. The African countries most enamored of trade are Uganda (70% very good), Tanzania (54%) and Nigeria (53%).

In Asia, a median of 86% express the opinion that such business ties are beneficial, including 24% who say it is very good. The Vietnamese (53% very good) are particularly taken by trade.

In Latin America, 80% see trade as a good thing. In the region, Nicaraguans (64% very good) are the most enthusiastic about the benefit of international commerce. In the Middle East, 77% view trade as good, including Tunisians (77% very good) and Lebanese (50%) who voice the strongest backing.

The weakest overall support for trade is in Turkey (57% good), but even there over half the public accepts the proposition that international commerce is good for the society. Notably, enthusiasm for trade has eroded significantly in Italy. In 2002, 80% of Italians said trade was good for the country. That backing fell to 68% in 2007 and to 59% by 2014.

2. Trade Creates Jobs

One reason global publics may believe that trade is good for their country is that, by medians of nearly three-to-one, they hold the view that trade with other nations leads to job creation in their country rather than job loss.

Education plays a role in such views. In 17 nations better educated people are significantly more likely than less educated ones to think trade creates employment opportunities. This is particularly the case in Peru, the UK, Mexico, Pakistan and Spain. But in only five societies – including France, Spain and the UK – are less educated people more likely to say trade destroys jobs.2

3. Trade Raises Wages

Publics in developing countries are most likely to voice this view. A median of more than half (55%) say such commerce raises incomes, while just 20% hold that it decreases wages. Emerging market opinion is similar: 45% say trade boosts take home pay, 20% contend that it undermines wages.

Those who are most likely to hold the view that trade hurts wages are Italians (52%), Greeks (49%), French (47%), Americans (45%) and Colombians (43%).

There is a strong relationship between the recent performance of the economy and views on the impact of trade on wages. The faster an economy grew on average between 2008 and 2013, the greater likelihood that the public holds the view that trade boosts wages.

4. Trade and Prices

It is a fundamental principle of modern free market economics that trade enhances competition and thus enables consumers to enjoy lower prices than they would otherwise have to pay if they depended solely on domestic production of the goods and services that they consume.

In only one country, Israel (58%), does a majority accept economists’ proposition that trade leads to price cuts. In 13 nations – including major economies such as China (58%), Indonesia (58%) and Brazil (55%) – at least half the public voices the view that trade contributes to price rises.

Publics in Africa (median of 50%) and Asia (48%) are the most likely to say trade raises price levels. Europeans (35%), people in the Middle East (33%) and Americans (32%) are among the least likely to blame trade.

It would appear that economic literacy has little to do with public views on the relationship between trade and prices, at least to the extent that an understanding of economic theory is related to educational attainment. In just 10 nations do better educated people buy the argument that trade lowers prices. Notably, in a number of emerging and developing countries – Pakistan, Peru, the Palestinian territories, India, Vietnam, Indonesia, El Salvador, Malaysia and Mexico – it is better educated people who are of the opinion that trade leads to higher prices.

5. Build Here, Don’t Buy Here

Foreign investment has long been considered by many economists to be more important economically than trade. Foreign direct investment, either through the construction of new plants or through the acquisition of existing companies (as opposed to the purchase of stocks and bonds abroad), is fairly long lasting, while trade volumes can change from year to year. Much trade is between divisions of the same company, so foreign investment often drives international trade as firms exchange components and services between their affiliates. And foreign investment leads to the broad dissemination of technologies and production practices, benefiting the recipients of such investment in intangible ways.

Publics are of two minds about foreign direct investment. A global median of 74% approve of foreign firms building new factories in their country, sometimes referred to as greenfield investments, because these can mean new jobs and greater economic activity. But they are divided (45% good, 47% bad) about foreign companies buying local enterprises, which can mean new management, a new business culture and possible company consolidation with attendant job losses.

The differences in preferences are quite striking. A median of more than eight-in-ten in developing economies (85%) see greenfield investment as positive, but only 57% give a thumbs up to foreign-led mergers and acquisitions (M&A), a 28 percentage point difference.

Among developing nations, African countries are the most supportive of foreigners investing in their economies. Overwhelming majorities in all five African developing economies say foreign greenfield investment is good. And roughly half or more hold the view that foreign acquisitions of domestic firms is beneficial. Among these African publics, Kenyans (66% foreign M&A is good, 88% foreign greenfield is good) and Tanzanians (68%, 84%) are particularly supportive of both types of foreign capital inflows.

In emerging markets, a median of 70% backs foreigners building new plants in their country, but just 44% say foreigners buying local firms is a good thing, a 26 point difference. The emerging market BRICS economies –Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa– are generally supportive of foreign investment with two exceptions: only 38% of Russians and 39% of Chinese say foreign acquisitions are good for their country. Notably, Indians back both forms of foreign investment (68% greenfield, 56% foreign M&A), despite the fact that their government has long limited foreign investors’ access to the Indian economy.

American sentiment toward foreign investment is mixed: 75% say foreign investment in new plants in the United States is a good thing for the U.S. economy, but just 28% believe that foreign acquisition of firms in the U.S. is beneficial.

6. Implications for TPP and TTIP

Major trading nations are currently involved in negotiating two mega-regional trade agreements: The Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) and the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP).

TPP involves the United States, Japan and ten other nations on both sides of the Pacific Ocean, which account for nearly two-fifths of world GDP and one-third of world trade.

TTIP involves the United States and the 28 nations of the European Union. Together they account for about half of the global economy and nearly a third of world trade flows.

The 2014 Pew Research survey polled seven of the 12 TPP participants. In each of these nations, robust majorities say trade is good for their countries. Public backing for foreign companies building factories in their nations is nearly as strong. But there is far less faith in other purported benefits of trade. A median of just 52% say trade generates new jobs and only 50% support foreign-led mergers and acquisitions of domestic firms. Just 27% accept economists’ argument that trade lowers prices. And a median of only 31% say international commerce leads to increased wages.

The Vietnamese are the most enthusiastic backers of both trade and investment among the TPP nations surveyed, followed by Malaysians.

Notably, some of the weakest support for both trade and foreign investment, and some of the greatest skepticism about its impact, exists in Japan and the United States, the two pivotal TPP nations that together account for the lion’s share of both the economic activity and trade between the dozen countries involved. Just 10% of Japanese and 17% of Americans say trade increases wages. Only 15% of Japanese and 20% of Americans say it grows jobs. And just 17% of Japanese and 28% of Americans favor foreign acquisition of domestic firms. In each of these cases, Japanese and American support is the lowest among the TPP nations surveyed.

The survey also polled eight countries negotiating the TTIP. As with the TPP nations, overwhelming majorities in both Europe and the U.S. hold the view that trade is good for their economy. But, just as with TPP, there is far less faith in the purported benefits of trade. A median of 44% in the TTIP countries surveyed say international commerce creates jobs. A median of only 26% hold the view that it lowers prices. And a median of just 25% believe it increases wages.

The “I” in TTIP stands for investment. The U.S. and Europe are each other’s primary source and destination for foreign direct investment. And boosting that trans-Atlantic investment further is one of the main objectives of the negotiation. Publics on both sides of the Atlantic are of two minds about such a goal, however. A median of 75% say foreign investment is a good thing if it leads to construction of new plants in their country. But just 32% voice the view that foreigners buying companies in their country is good.

Among the TTIP countries, the Italians are the most wary of the benefits of both international commerce and foreign investment. Only 13% say trade creates jobs, just 7% see it increasing wages and 23% voice the view that foreign firms buying Italian companies is a good thing.

Notably, 79% of Germans say foreign-led M&A is bad for the country and 33% even view foreigners building plants in Germany in a negative light. Such opposition to foreign investment is the highest among the TTIP countries surveyed.

Such doubts about the specific benefits of trade and foreign investment do not, necessarily, translate into public opposition to TPP and TTIP. An April 2014 Pew Research survey found that 75% of Germans said increasing trade with the United States would be a good thing and 72% of Americans believed that growing commerce with the European Union would be good. Over half of Germans (55%) and Americans (53%) thought TTIP would be good for their country. With regard to TPP, 74% of Americans said boosting trade with Japan, the principal other economy in the TPP negotiation, would be beneficial. And 55% of Americans favored TPP.

Correction: The original report incorrectly stated that less educated people are more likely to say trade destroys jobs in only two societies – Nigeria and Egypt. The report was corrected on October 1, 2014. ↩

]]>Global Public Downbeat about Economyhttp://www.pewglobal.org/2014/09/09/global-public-downbeat-about-economy/
Tue, 09 Sep 2014 13:55:04 +0000http://www.pewglobal.org/?p=31266Six years after the beginning of the Great Recession, amid an uneven global economic recovery, publics around the world remain glum. In most nations, people say their country is heading in the wrong direction and most voice the view that economic conditions are bad, according to a new 44 country survey by the Pew Research Center conducted among 48,643 respondents from March 17 to June 5, 2014.

This is the first in a series of Pew Research Center reports based on the Spring 2014 global survey that will look at public views of major economic changes in advanced, emerging and developing nations.

Those most positive about their national economic conditions are the Chinese (89%), Vietnamese (87%) and Germans (85%).

In a half dozen countries, economic attitudes have soured in the last year. In 2013, a majority of Brazilians (59%) said their economy was doing well. Today only 32% hold this view, a 27 percentage point drop in economic confidence. There has also been a 15 point decline in positive views of the economy in Venezuela and 13 point drop-offs in Argentina and Malaysia.

However, over the last year, the economic mood has brightened in a number of nations. In 2013 in the United Kingdom and Pakistan, only 15% and 17% of the public, respectively, thought the economy was doing well. British assessments of their economic conditions are now up 28 points. Pakistanis’ economic frame of mind has improved by 20 points. Double digit improvements in economic mood are also found in Uganda, Israel, Indonesia, South Korea, Russia, Chile and Germany.

Expectations for the future of national economies are a bit more positive overall. A global median of 46% sees their economy picking up over the next year. This includes 45% in the UK — a 23 point rise in public economic optimism about the future since 2013. A majority of Indonesians (55%) and Ugandans (57%) also expect their economy to perform better over the next year, with such confidence up 18 points and 15 points, respectively, since last year.

At the same time, optimism about the economy over the next 12 months has nosedived in Japan, where just 15% foresee their economy improving, down from 40% who were hopeful a year ago. More than six-in-ten Malaysians (64%) were upbeat about their economic prospects in 2013; now, less than half (47%) see a brighter economic future. Notably, U.S. optimism about the trajectory of the economy is down nine points, from 44% in 2013 to 35% in 2014.

Concern about the economy manifests itself in widespread and overwhelming worry about a range of economic challenges. A global median of 77% says both rising prices and a lack of employment opportunities are very big problems in their country. A median of 60% holds the view that the gap between the rich and the poor is a very big concern. And 59% assert that public debt is similarly a very big challenge.

In advanced economies, the greatest concern is about debt, with a median of 64% saying public debt is a major worry. In emerging markets, inflation (77%) is seen to be the gravest challenge, followed by a lack of employment opportunities (72%). And in developing societies, both jobs (86%) and inflation (84%) are the subject of intense public worry.

1. National Conditions Not Good

Most national publics around the world – a global median of 69% – are dissatisfied with the way things are going in their country. By this broad measure of national unease, which may encompass public perception of economic, political, social and security conditions, half or more of the publics in 36 of the 44 nations surveyed say conditions in their society are not good.

This displeasure is shared across advanced economies (a median of 66% unhappy), emerging markets (69%) and developing economies (69%). Regionally, the greatest unease is in Europe (77%), Latin America (74%) and the Middle East (72%). The least dissatisfaction is in Asia (60%). But it is hardly a sign of well-being that six-in-ten Asians are discontented with the way things are going.

At a national level, the most dissatisfied are the Greeks (95%), the Lebanese (93%), the Spanish (91%) and the Italians (90%). About six-in-ten Americans (62%) are also unhappy with the way things are going in the U.S. The most content with their country’s direction are the Chinese (87%), the Vietnamese (86%) and the Malaysians (77%).

Notably, Russian satisfaction with their nation’s direction has improved 19 percentage points, from 37% to 56%, in the last year, possibly a byproduct of public backing for Russia’s newly assertive foreign policy. British contentment has grown 14 points, from 26% to 40%, likely the consequence of the pickup in the economy.

2. Widespread Economic Gloom

The global public is generally downbeat about the economic situation in their countries, except in Asia.

Their mood reflects recent economic conditions. Global growth slowed in the first quarter of 2014, immediately prior to the survey. At 2.75%, it was down a full percentage point from the growth experienced in the second half of 2013, according to the International Monetary Fund. Some nations, especially advanced economies, such as Japan, Germany, Spain, and the UK, performed better than expected. But their success was outweighed by disappointing growth in China and the U.S. And weak demand in those economies sapped economic growth in emerging markets, where success is often driven by exports to the U.S. and China.

In advanced economies, a median of just 34% say their economy is in good shape, and only 39% in emerging economies share similar positive views. In developing economies, publics are divided: 51% say their economy is doing well and 47% see it performing poorly. These views are relatively unchanged in the emerging markets that were surveyed in both 2013 and 2014. But in the 10 advanced economies surveyed in both years, the median who hold the view that their economy is good has actually improved by 16 percentage points, a sign that even the modest economic recovery experienced in parts of Europe, Japan and the U.S. is resonating with the public.

Seen through a regional lens, a median of 88% of Europeans say their economies are doing poorly, as do 76% in the Middle East and 60% in Latin America. Africans are divided: 51% express the view that their economies are doing well, 47% say their performance is bad. Asians, however, are generally upbeat: 63% say their economies are in good shape, just 37% see them performing poorly.

The Chinese (89%), Vietnamese (87%) and Germans (85%) feel the best about their country’s economic situation. And they have reason to feel positive. China’s economy is expected to grow by 7.4% this year and Vietnam’s by 5.6%, according to the IMF. The Greeks (2%) and Italians (3%) are the most downbeat about current economic conditions. Again, this is hardly surprising. Italy fell back into recession in the first half of 2014 and Greece’s economy continued to shrink.

3. Mixed Views on Next 12 Months

The IMF expects the world economy to pick up a bit, growing at 3.4% in 2014, slightly faster than in 2013, and expand by 4% in 2015.

A median of 57% of those in developing economies hold the view that the economy is likely to improve. Just 17% say it will worsen. A plurality (48%) in emerging markets expect economic conditions to be better, while only 18% see them worsening. And a plurality (41%) in advanced economies anticipate that the economic situation in their country will remain the same, with the rest of the public evenly divided between those who say it will improve and those who fear it will deteriorate.

The most optimistic nation is China (80%), where the IMF expects growth to be 7.1% in 2015. But there are also high expectations in the Latin American nations of Peru (77%) and Colombia (70%), where the IMF foresees growth of 5.8% and 4.5% respectively. The same is true in the Asian economies of Vietnam (74%) and India (71%), where the IMF forecasts growth of 5.7% and 6.4% respectively; and in the African countries Senegal (73%) and Nigeria (72%), where the IMF expects growth of 4.8% and 7.0%.

The greatest pessimists can be found in Greece (53% worsen), France (48%), Lebanon (46%) and the Palestinian territories (44%).

4. Multiple Economic Problems

Publics concerned about the economy generally see problems wherever they look, and their anxiety is often quite intense. Across a range of economic problems, including inflation, unemployment, income inequality and public debt, strong majorities in most countries not only see each as a concern, they voice the view that these are very big problems facing their country.

In six of the 10 advanced economies surveyed, the lack of employment opportunities is considered the top economic challenge. Almost every Greek (98%) in the survey says joblessness is a major issue. This finding is hardly surprising in a country where the official unemployment rate for 2013 was 27%. More than nine-in-ten Italians and Spanish agree that the lack of employment opportunities in their own nations is a top problem. The least troubled about unemployment are the Germans (24%), where the joblessness rate was 5.2% in 2013.

Public debt is the major worry in Japan (67%) and the U.S. (63%), where indebtedness is equal to 243.5% and 105.7% of the GDP respectively. But the greatest concern is in Greece (89%), Italy (79%) and Spain (75%). The Israelis (33%) are the least concerned.

The Germans (23%) are the least anxious about inflation, possibly because Germany has recently been experiencing its lowest inflation in years.

And only in Germany (39%) is the gap between the rich and the poor viewed as the principal economic problem facing the country. The greatest worry about inequality is again in Greece

In 18 of 25 emerging markets rising prices are among the gravest economic concerns. Nearly all Pakistanis (97%) complain that inflation is a very big problem, as do 95% of Tunisians and 92% of Lebanese. The least concerned about inflation are the Chinese (38%).

In seven emerging economies joblessness is seen as among the most important economic problems, with the greatest concern in Tunisia (95%), Colombia (92%) and Nigeria (90%). The Chinese are again the least worried (30%).

Notably, Turks (74%), and Chileans (74%) cite income inequality as among the leading economic challenges facing their country. But the greatest concern about the gap between the rich and the poor is in Lebanon (84%). In emerging markets, the least concern about inequality is found in Vietnam (34%).

Nowhere in the emerging markets surveyed is public debt seen as the most important economic challenge facing the nation. Nevertheless, it is considered a major problem in Lebanon (90%), the Philippines (79%) and Tunisia (78%). Only 12% of the Chinese see such debt as a very important issue.

Rising prices are viewed as the most pressing economic challenge in six of nine developing countries. Inflation most troubles the public in Ghana (93%), Kenya (89%) and Senegal (88%). Joblessness is seen as a very big problem in Uganda (93%) in particular. Both unemployment and inflation are judged major problems by at least seven-in-ten in all developing countries surveyed.

Income inequality is a particular worry in Tanzania (77%) and Ghana (76%), but a relatively low concern in Bangladesh (34%).

Public debt especially worries Ghanaians (75%) and Nicaraguans (72%). It is again the least of Bangladeshi economic anxieties.

Despite their high level of distress about various economic problems, public views of these challenges have not changed much since 2013 except in a few societies.

The greatest movement in public economic concerns involves declining worry about public debt. The proportion of the public that sees this as a major problem is down 33 points in Senegal, 24 points in Pakistan, 20 points in the Palestinian territories, 19 points in Russia, 16 points in Chile, 15 points in Brazil and 13 points in Israel, Indonesia and Kenya.

The perception that joblessness is a very big problem has gone down 15 percentage points in Chile and El Salvador since 2013, 13 points in Japan, 12 points in the UK and 11 points in South Korea. Intense concern about inflation is down 21 percentage points in China in the last year, 13 points in Poland, 12 points in Israel and South Korea and 10 points in Chile. Serious worry about the gap between the rich and the poor is down by double digits in a number of nations: by 18 points in Senegal, 12 points in Germany and India, 11 points in South Korea and 10 points in China and Poland.

Moreover, ratings for Iran in several Middle Eastern nations have declined significantly in recent years. Iranian President Hassan Rouhani, who was elected just over one year ago, also receives poor marks in the region. In Turkey, Tunisia, Jordan and Egypt, Rouhani is even less popular than his predecessor, the controversial former president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.

These are among the major findings of a new survey by the Pew Research Center conducted in 40 countries among 44,628 respondents from March 17 to May 25, 2014. The survey also finds that Lebanese views toward Iran continue to reflect Lebanon’s deep religious divisions. Big majorities of Lebanese Shia Muslims express a positive opinion about predominantly Shia Iran and its president, while most Sunni Muslims and Christians see Iran and Rouhani in a negative light.

Iran Unpopular around the World

Attitudes toward Iran are mostly negative worldwide. In 29 of 40 countries, a majority or plurality say they have an unfavorable opinion of the Islamic Republic. The only nations in which at least half express a favorable view are Bangladesh (63%), Pakistan (63%) and Indonesia (51%).

Ratings for Iran are low in the Middle East, and have been dropping steadily in recent years. In 2006, roughly half or more in Egypt, Jordan and Turkey had a positive opinion of Iran; today, fewer than one-in-five in all three countries hold this view. Similarly, Iran’s favorability rating among Palestinians has dropped from 55% in 2007 to 33% now.

In Lebanon, an overwhelming majority of Shia Muslims (86%) have a favorable opinion of Iran, compared with just 13% of Sunni Muslims and 31% of the country’s Christians. About nine-in-ten Israelis give Iran a negative rating, including 97% of Jews and 57% of Israeli Arabs.

Among the P5+1 nations (the five permanent members of the UN Security Council plus Germany) that are engaged in ongoing nuclear talks with Tehran, public attitudes are mostly critical of Iran. Majorities in Germany, France, the United States, the United Kingdom and China give Iran an unfavorable rating. Russians are more divided, although, on balance, still mostly negative (44% favorable, 35% unfavorable).

Iran’s image is largely negative throughout Europe and Latin America. Opinions are more mixed in Asia and sub-Saharan Africa, although in several nations in those regions a significant number of people offer no opinion.

Rouhani Unpopular

Iranian President Hassan Rouhani is often described as less hardline than other leaders of the Iranian regime, but a year into his tenure, Rouhani receives poor marks throughout the Middle Eastern countries surveyed.

Majorities in six nations express an unfavorable opinion of Rouhani, including roughly eight-in-ten in Jordan and Egypt and about nine-in-ten in Israel. In Tunisia, a 44%-plurality gives him a negative rating.

When Pew Research asked the same question about then-President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad in 2012, the controversial Ahmadinejad received better ratings than Rouhani does today in Turkey, Tunisia, Jordan and Egypt.

In Lebanon, opinions about Rouhani once again reflect the country’s religious divisions: 87% of Shia Muslims give him a positive rating, compared with just 10% of Sunni Muslims and 31% of Christians.

]]>Syria’s Neighbors Want Assad to Step Down, But No Appetite for Aid to Rebelshttp://www.pewglobal.org/2014/06/16/syrias-neighbors-want-assad-to-step-down-but-no-appetite-for-aid-to-rebels/
Mon, 16 Jun 2014 18:58:48 +0000http://www.pewglobal.org/?p=30689After three years of civil war, Syria’s neighbors fear that al Qaeda or other extremist groups could take control of that war-torn land, according to a new survey by the Pew Research Center. Regional publics widely disapprove of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and they want him to step down. Nevertheless, there is mounting opposition in the Middle East to the West or Arab nations supplying arms and military supplies to anti-government groups in Syria.

Strong majorities in most of Syria’s neighboring countries, especially in Lebanon and Israel, fear an extremist takeover in Damascus.1 The least concern is in Turkey, despite a number of terrorist incidents on the Turkish-Syrian border.

Half or more of the publics in the nations surveyed also voice unfavorable views of Assad and want him out of office, including strong majorities in Egypt and Jordan.

Yet half or more of the same publics also oppose outsiders getting involved in the conflict, with the greatest resistance being toward Western aid. Notably, Jordanians, who in 2013 backed foreign arms for the rebels, are now against both Western and Arab assistance to the insurgents.

These are some of the findings of a Pew Research Center survey of 7,001 people in seven Middle Eastern nations conducted April 10 to May 16, 2014.

Fear of Extremism

Concern that extremist groups could take control of Syria is pervasive. Nearly seven-in-ten or more Egyptians (69%), Jordanians (76%), Israelis (82%) and Lebanese (86%) are somewhat or very concerned. Fully 58% of Lebanese and roughly four-in-ten Tunisians (42%), Jordanians (41%) and Israelis (41%) are very concerned.

In Lebanon, Christians are the most worried about extremism next door. Roughly two-thirds of Lebanese Christians (65%) but only about half of Sunnis (51%) and Shias (50%) are very concerned about al Qaeda or similar groups gaining control in Syria.

The Lebanese are more concerned about the potential for sectarian strife closer to home. Nine-in-ten Christians (93%) and Shias (90%) and more than eight-in-ten Sunnis (85%) voice concern that tensions between Sunnis and Shias in Lebanon are a very big problem in their country.

In Israel, as might be expected, Jews are somewhat more worried about extremists in Syria than are Arabs (84% to 75%). Nevertheless, the three-in-four Israeli Arabs who voice concern about an al Qaeda-type takeover in Syria point to a greater unease than that expressed by Turks, Palestinians or Egyptians.

Opposition to Aiding Syrian Rebels

In last year’s survey, there was little public support for aid to anti-government forces battling the Damascus regime, and there is even less backing in 2014.

More than seven-in-ten Lebanese (78%), Tunisians (77%) and Turks (73%) are against Western nations sending arms and military supplies to the insurgents. And about two-thirds of Palestinians (68%), Egyptians (67%) and Jordanians (66%) agree.

Even half of Israelis do not want the West to get involved. But these national survey findings mask ethnic and generational divides within Israeli society. Roughly eight-in-ten Israeli Arabs oppose aid to the rebels, but only 44% of Israeli Jews are against Western help. And in terms of the generation gap, more than half (53%) of Israelis 50 years of age and older oppose Western assistance to anti-government groups in Syria, compared with 43% of Israelis age 18 to 29.

There is only slightly less regional opposition to Arab nations aiding the anti-government forces. Nearly three-quarters of the public in Turkey (73%) and in Tunisia (73%) disagree with such help, as do roughly six-in-ten in the Palestinian territories (61%) and Egypt (60%). About half or more in Lebanon (56%), Jordan (52%) and Israel (51%) also are against such aid.

Opposition to supplying the Syrian insurgents with arms and supplies is on the rise throughout the region. Jordanian opposition to both the West and other Arab states providing military assistance is up 22 percentage points since 2013. Tunisian disapproval of Arab aid is up 18 points and of Western aid is up 17 points.

Assisting the Syrian opposition is a particularly divisive issue in Lebanon, splitting the public along sectarian lines. Fully 89% of Lebanese Shias are against other Arab nations sending arms and military supplies to the rebels (many of whom are Sunni). Over half of Lebanese Sunnis (55%) back aid to the insurgents. Christians are divided on such assistance.

Assad Widely Opposed

Syrian President Bashar al-Assad has little support in the region. Strong majorities in all neighboring countries have an unfavorable opinion of him. In most countries such sentiment is fairly intense and growing. Fully 78% of Jordanians say they have a very unfavorable attitude toward Assad, a rise of 11 percentage points since 2012. Similarly, 71% of Turks hold a very unfavorable view of the Syrian president, an increase of 17 percentage points in negative sentiment since 2012. And nearly two-thirds of Egyptians (66%) see Assad in a very negative light, up 18 points in the last three years. Only in Tunisia has public sentiment toward Assad mellowed a bit.

Strong majorities in most of Syria’s neighboring countries would also prefer Assad to step down, including roughly nine-in-ten Egyptians and more than eight-in-ten Jordanians. About seven-in-ten Palestinians (72%) and Turks (70%) also want Assad to leave. Nearly two-thirds (65%) of Tunisians would like to see Assad go, but that is down from 88% who held that view in 2012. Notably, more than half of Israeli Arabs (53%) voice a desire for Assad to step down.

Only in Lebanon, where Syrian refugees now make up almost a quarter of Lebanon’s population, is the public divided over Assad. While half have a very unfavorable view of the Syrian leader, three-in-ten hold a very favorable opinion. These overall numbers reflect a deep sectarian division of opinion within Lebanese society about the Syrian leader. Almost three-quarters (74%) of the Sunni population voice a very negative view of Assad, as do 62% of the Christian community. But 76% of Shias have a very favorable opinion of the Syrian leader, who is a member of the Alawite sect of Shia Islam. Similarly, 81% of Lebanese Sunnis want Assad to step down, while 92% of Shias would prefer for him to stay.

The survey was conducted prior to the recent takeover of Mosul and other areas of Iraq by the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS). ↩

There is widespread opposition to internet censorship in emerging and developing nations. Majorities in 22 of 24 countries surveyed say it is important that people have access to the internet without government censorship. In 12 nations, at least seven-in-ten hold this view.

Support for internet freedom is especially strong in countries where a large percentage of the population is online. And, in most of the countries polled, young people are particularly likely to consider internet freedom a priority.

These are among the main findings of a Pew Research Center survey conducted among 21,847 people in 24 emerging and developing economies from March 3, 2013 to May 1, 2013. All interviews were conducted face-to-face.

Opposition to government restrictions on the internet is especially common in several of the Latin American nations surveyed, including Venezuela, Chile, Argentina, Brazil, Mexico and Bolivia. It is also widespread in the Middle Eastern nations of Lebanon and Egypt.

Support for internet freedom tends to be strong in nations with high rates of internet penetration, such as Chile and Argentina, where roughly two-thirds of the population is online. It is less common in nations with lower penetration rates, like Indonesia and Uganda.

Some nations, such as Venezuela and Egypt, have higher levels of support for internet freedom than might be anticipated, given the degree of online penetration in the country. Meanwhile, support is lower than might be expected in Russia and Pakistan, given the percentage of people who use the internet in those two nations. Other Pew Research surveys have also found relatively low support for democratic rights and institutions in Russia and Pakistan.1 Another caveat in interpreting the results for Pakistan is that a large percentage of respondents (62%) offer no opinion on this question.

Opinions are also strongly related to age. In 14 nations, people ages 18-29 are more likely than those 50 or older to believe an uncensored internet is important. Age gaps of 20 percentage points or more are found in Russia, Lebanon, Tunisia, Bolivia and Senegal. These age differences suggest that support for internet freedom will only become more widespread with the passage of time.

Nonetheless, people ages 50 and older do tend to support internet freedom. In most countries surveyed, a majority of this age group says having internet access without government interference is important.

In several countries, internet freedom has especially strong backing among the well-educated. For example, 73% of Tunisian college graduates say it is important to have internet access without government censorship, compared with 54% of those without a college degree. Double-digit gaps are also found in six other countries.

And in several nations, those with higher incomes are particularly likely to consider this a priority. For instance, 71% of high-income Kenyans say internet freedom is important, compared with 44% of people in the low-income category. Nearly eight-in-ten Russians in the high-income category (78%) believe it is important, while only 52% of those with low incomes hold this view.

In a remarkably short period of time, internet and mobile technology have become a part of everyday life for some in the emerging and developing world. Cell phones, in particular, are almost omnipresent in many nations. The internet has also made tremendous inroads, although most people in the 24 nations surveyed are still offline.

Meanwhile, smartphones are still relatively rare, although significant minorities own these devices in countries such as Lebanon, Chile, Jordan and China.

People around the world are using their cell phones for a variety of purposes, especially for texting and taking pictures, while smaller numbers also use their phones to get political, consumer and health information. Mobile technology is also changing economic life in parts of Africa, where many are using cell phones to make or receive payments.

While the internet still has a limited reach in the emerging and developing world, once people do gain access to the internet, they quickly begin to integrate it into their lives. A significant number of people in these nations say they use the internet on a daily basis, including roughly half of those polled in Lebanon, Russia and Argentina. At least 20% use the internet daily in 15 of the 24 nations surveyed.

In 21 of 24 nations, a majority of internet users also participate in sites like Facebook and Twitter (see here for a country by country list of social networking sites).

People are using social networking sites to stay in touch with family and friends and to share their views on an array of topics, including popular culture, religion and politics.

These are among the main findings of a Pew Research Center survey conducted among 24,263 people in 24 emerging and developing economies from March 2, 2013 to May 1, 2013. All interviews were conducted face-to-face.

The survey also finds that using the internet – like many other forms of communication technology – is significantly more common among young people (see here for data on age differences for several key technology usage questions). In 14 of 24 nations, at least half of 18-29 year-olds say they are online. Internet use is also correlated with national income, as richer nations tend to have a higher percentage of internet users.

Similarly, smartphone ownership is more common in countries with higher levels of per capita income. Traditional cell phones still outnumber smartphones, although roughly three-in-ten or more Lebanese, Chileans, Jordanians, Chinese, Argentines, South Africans, Malaysians and Venezuelans now own a smartphone.

People use their cell phones for many things, but texting is especially popular. In 22 of 24 countries, most cell phone owners send text messages. Mobile phones are also widely used for taking pictures or video – at least half of cell phone owners use their devices for this in 15 nations.

While making or receiving payments is one of the least common cell phone activities, it is much more common in the region where mobile money is a phenomenon – Africa, and more specifically, Kenya and its neighbor Uganda. Nearly seven-in-ten Kenyans (68%) who own a cell phone say they regularly use their mobile device to make or receive payments. Half in Uganda say this as well. Meanwhile, even though only 29% of mobile owners in South Africa and 24% in Senegal say they use their phones for monetary transactions, these are still among the highest percentages across all the countries surveyed. Only in Russia (24%) do as many cell owners use their device for such purposes. In the 18 countries surveyed outside of sub-Saharan Africa, a median of only 8% use their cell phones for making and receiving payments.

Cell Phone and Smartphone Ownership

More than half of the population in each of the nations surveyed say they own a cell phone. Roughly nine-in-ten or more own mobile phones in Jordan (95%), China (95%), Russia (94%), Chile (91%) and South Africa (91%).

Cell phone ownership rates have skyrocketed in the last decade in most of the nations where data on trends is available. The pervasiveness of cell phone ownership in these nations is in part due to a lack of landline connections. Across the 24 countries, a median of only 23% say they have a working landline telephone in their house, including as few as 1% in Ghana and Kenya. Instead, many emerging and developing nations have skipped landlines and moved straight to mobile technology.

Smartphone ownership pales by contrast – there is no country in the study where even half of the population owns a smartphone. Still, this relatively new technology is gaining a foothold in many emerging and developing nations. At least 20% have a smartphone in 11 countries.

In every country polled, there is a significant age gap on smartphone ownership, with people under age 30 much more likely than others to own an iPhone, BlackBerry, or Android device. For instance, 69% of 18- 29 year-olds in China have a smartphone, as do half or more in Lebanon (62%), Chile (55%), Jordan (53%) and Argentina (50%).

Education is also associated with smartphone ownership. In 10 nations, those with a college degree are significantly more likely to own a smartphone than are those who have not graduated from college. This is especially true in the Middle East – in Egypt, for example, 72% of college graduates have a smartphone, compared with only 13% of Egyptians without a college degree. A huge gap is also found in China, where 83% of college graduates say they own a smartphone, while just 37% of those without a college degree say the same.

Texting Most Popular Use of Cell Phones

Cell phone owners describe a wide variety of uses for their devices. Large majorities in most countries say that they regularly send text messages. Overall, a median of 78% of mobile phone users across the 24 countries send texts, making it the most popular cell phone activity (other than making calls) included on the survey.

Taking pictures and video is also a popular activity among cell phone owners, with a median of 54% saying they do this regularly. Compared with text messaging, though, there are a wider variety of responses to this question across the countries. Cell phone owners in Latin America generally are more likely than those in other countries to use mobile phones for this purpose. For instance, two-thirds or more of cell phone owners in Venezuela (77%) and Chile (67%) say they regularly snap pictures or shoot video with their phones. But less than four-in-ten mobile owners in Tunisia (36%), Lebanon (35%), Uganda (27%) and Pakistan (19%) say the same.

A median of only one-in-four cell phone users across the countries surveyed say they access a social networking site regularly on their phone, although a third or more do so in Chile (37%), Venezuela (37%), Lebanon (36%) and Nigeria (34%). This is less popular elsewhere, with as little as 3% in Pakistan and 10% of cell phone owners in Uganda saying they regularly use social networking sites (SNS) on their mobile device such as Facebook, Twitter, and other country-specific examples (see here for full list). Generally, this activity is more popular in Latin America and the Middle East than in Asia and Africa.

Other activities that are less popular across regions include getting political news and information (a median of 16%), getting consumer information such as the prices and availability of products (16%), getting information about health and medicine (15%) and making or receiving payments (11%).

However, there are certain countries and regions where using cell phones to get political and other information is more widespread. For instance, getting political news and information is relatively popular among cell phone owners in Venezuela (39%) and China (31%).

Getting consumer information, such as prices or availability of products, is not a very common activity among cell phone owners in any of the countries surveyed. Still, a quarter or more in Venezuela (29%), Russia (28%) and Chile (25%) say they do this regularly. Similar numbers of mobile users in Venezuela (30%) and Nigeria (28%) say they get information about health and medicine for themselves or their family.

Making or receiving payments is one of the least-used cell phone activities among the countries surveyed, but it is much more common in Africa, especially Kenya (68% of cell phone owners) and Uganda (50%). In the 18 countries surveyed outside of sub-Saharan Africa, a median of only 8% say they use their cell phones for making and receiving payments.

Internet Usage and Social Networking

Across the 24 emerging and developing nations surveyed, the percentage of people who are online varies widely. In six nations, half or more use the internet, at least occasionally. In contrast, 25% or less go online in Indonesia (23%), Uganda (12%) and Pakistan (8%).

People who do go online tend to become avid users. Half or more of internet users in most of the countries surveyed say they use it daily.

Consistently, internet usage rates are higher among young people. In every nation surveyed, there are double digit age gaps between adults under age 30 and those 50 and older. And in 19 countries, the gap is more than 30 percentage points.

Internet usage is also strongly correlated with income. Generally, the higher a country’s GDP per capita, the higher its percentage of internet users. The three nations with the highest per capita incomes in this survey – Chile, Argentina and Russia – also have the highest internet usage rates. Meanwhile, these rates are especially low in two of the poorest countries surveyed, Pakistan and Uganda, where roughly nine-in-ten never go online. Some nations, such as Kenya, Jordan, Egypt and Bolivia have more people online than might be anticipated, given their per capita income.
Once people have access to the internet, they tend to engage in social networking. The most popular way in which people use social networking is staying in touch with family and friends. A near-universal median of 96% among social networking users across the 22 countries analyzed say they use SNS for this purpose (Pakistan and Uganda are excluded due to insufficient sample size). Sharing views about pop culture is also common, with a median of 73% saying they use social networks to post opinions on music and movies.Across 22 countries, a median of 38% among social networkers say they share views about politics using social media sites. While not as popular as staying in touch with friends or sharing music and movies, political discourse online is particularly popular in the Middle East and sub-Saharan Africa. In Lebanon, 72% of social networkers say they share views about politics. Six-in-ten or more in Egypt (64%), Jordan (63%) and Tunisia (60%) say they talk about politics on social networks. This activity is also popular in Kenya (68%) and Nigeria (62%).

Religion, like politics, is not at the top of the list of topics for social network users in emerging and developing nations. A median of 43% say they share views about religion on websites like Facebook and Twitter. But again, this activity is more popular in the Middle East and sub-Saharan Africa. Six-in-ten or more social networkers in Nigeria (69%), Jordan (64%), Egypt (60%), and Kenya (60%) share views about religion online. Elsewhere in Asia and Latin America, the practice is less common.

For many in emerging and developing nations, online political dialogue leads to discoveries about the political leanings of people they know. In nine countries, half or more of social networkers say they have learned that someone’s political beliefs were different than they thought, based on something that person posted on a site like Facebook or Twitter. This type of discovery is particularly common in sub-Saharan Africa and Latin America. It happens less often in Egypt, China, Jordan and Turkey.