June 03, 2017

India and China as an alibi for America to withdraw from Paris accord

It is not everyday—if ever at all—that India figures in official U.S. pronouncements so frequently. However, in the past couple of days it has been given a dubious distinction by no less a personage than President Donald Trump. Along with China, India has emerged as an alibi, a justification and even an extenuating circumstance to withdraw from the Paris climate accord.

Apart from Trump, Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) administrator Scott Pruitt and even Senator Ben Sasse (Republican of Nebraska) have mentioned India as one of the major polluters which get away lightly under the Paris accord. In fact, Pruitt went to the extent of saying, “It [the Paris Accord] was an America second, third, or fourth kind of approach. China and India had no obligations under the agreement until 2030.” He insisted that China and India “are polluting far more than we are.”

It is an assertion that is manifestly wrong. The idea that China and India produce more carbon dioxide than the United States is highly misleading. While India clearly does not produce more CO2 than America, in China’s case too it has to be seen in proportion its population of 1.4 billion as against 325 million in America. As pointed out by Glenn Kessler in The Washington Post, with that as the basis, in 2015 America produced “more than double the carbon dioxide emissions of China — and eight times more than India.”

“While some small countries have higher per capita pollution rates than the United States, the United States is by far the largest emitter of carbon dioxide among the 10 most populous countries,” Kessler writes.

In terms of a broader picture, given the determined push for solar power by both India and China, there appears to be some leveling of CO2 emissions. According to the International Energy Agency, which tracks such trends, “Global energy-related carbon dioxide emissions were flat for a third straight year in 2016 even as the global economy grew, according to the International Energy Agency, signaling a continuing decoupling of emissions and economic activity. This was the result of growing renewable power generation, switches from coal to natural gas, improvements in energy efficiency, as well as structural changes in the global economy.

Global emissions from the energy sector stood at 32.1 gigatonnes last year, the same as the previous two years, while the global economy grew 3.1%, according to estimates from the IEA. Carbon dioxide emissions declined in the United States and China, the world’s two-largest energy users and emitters, and were stable in Europe, offsetting increases in most of the rest of the world.”

If the CO2 emissions have been flat for a third straight year, one can attribute at least some of that leveling to the way India and China have managed their pollutants. Apart from China’s well-known push for solar energy, India too has in recent years become a remarkable example of tapping solar power. As reported by Geeta Anand in The New York Times yesterday, “But now, even as President Trump pulls the United States out of the (Paris climate) pact, India has undergone an astonishing turnaround, driven in great part by a steep fall in the cost of solar power.”

When the world’s two most populous countries, trying to lift hundreds of millions of people out of poverty in a peaceful way and in India’s case democratically, choose non-carbon sources of energy with such national determination, the least Washington can do is not use them as a false alibi in its opt out of the Paris accord. It is true that India and China have had a poor record but that can be explained by a combination of factors, including a generally peaceful transition to a relative prosperity over the past four decades or so. Of course, they have a considerable task on their hands to clean up their air but they have demonstrated enough willingness to achieve that. The trends in both countries are clearly very encouraging.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who is scheduled to visit Washington later this month, should make it a point educate President Trump about how India despite its formidable existential challenges is forging ahead with solar and other renewable sources of energy. He should directly let it be known how India has has always deeply respected the science and culture of climate unlike some of the grandees in his own administration, including the president himself.

Trump’s assertion that New Delhi has made participation in the Paris accord contingent on extracting “billions and billions and billions” of dollars in foreign aid has to be honestly contextualized rather than using it as an incendiary line meant to excite his base. I would be the first to support Prime Minister Modi if he makes climate change and India’s extraordinarily responsible conduct a key talking point in his meeting with President Trump.

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India and China as an alibi for America to withdraw from Paris accord

It is not everyday—if ever at all—that India figures in official U.S. pronouncements so frequently. However, in the past couple of days it has been given a dubious distinction by no less a personage than President Donald Trump. Along with China, India has emerged as an alibi, a justification and even an extenuating circumstance to withdraw from the Paris climate accord.

Apart from Trump, Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) administrator Scott Pruitt and even Senator Ben Sasse (Republican of Nebraska) have mentioned India as one of the major polluters which get away lightly under the Paris accord. In fact, Pruitt went to the extent of saying, “It [the Paris Accord] was an America second, third, or fourth kind of approach. China and India had no obligations under the agreement until 2030.” He insisted that China and India “are polluting far more than we are.”

It is an assertion that is manifestly wrong. The idea that China and India produce more carbon dioxide than the United States is highly misleading. While India clearly does not produce more CO2 than America, in China’s case too it has to be seen in proportion its population of 1.4 billion as against 325 million in America. As pointed out by Glenn Kessler in The Washington Post, with that as the basis, in 2015 America produced “more than double the carbon dioxide emissions of China — and eight times more than India.”

“While some small countries have higher per capita pollution rates than the United States, the United States is by far the largest emitter of carbon dioxide among the 10 most populous countries,” Kessler writes.

In terms of a broader picture, given the determined push for solar power by both India and China, there appears to be some leveling of CO2 emissions. According to the International Energy Agency, which tracks such trends, “Global energy-related carbon dioxide emissions were flat for a third straight year in 2016 even as the global economy grew, according to the International Energy Agency, signaling a continuing decoupling of emissions and economic activity. This was the result of growing renewable power generation, switches from coal to natural gas, improvements in energy efficiency, as well as structural changes in the global economy.

Global emissions from the energy sector stood at 32.1 gigatonnes last year, the same as the previous two years, while the global economy grew 3.1%, according to estimates from the IEA. Carbon dioxide emissions declined in the United States and China, the world’s two-largest energy users and emitters, and were stable in Europe, offsetting increases in most of the rest of the world.”

If the CO2 emissions have been flat for a third straight year, one can attribute at least some of that leveling to the way India and China have managed their pollutants. Apart from China’s well-known push for solar energy, India too has in recent years become a remarkable example of tapping solar power. As reported by Geeta Anand in The New York Times yesterday, “But now, even as President Trump pulls the United States out of the (Paris climate) pact, India has undergone an astonishing turnaround, driven in great part by a steep fall in the cost of solar power.”

When the world’s two most populous countries, trying to lift hundreds of millions of people out of poverty in a peaceful way and in India’s case democratically, choose non-carbon sources of energy with such national determination, the least Washington can do is not use them as a false alibi in its opt out of the Paris accord. It is true that India and China have had a poor record but that can be explained by a combination of factors, including a generally peaceful transition to a relative prosperity over the past four decades or so. Of course, they have a considerable task on their hands to clean up their air but they have demonstrated enough willingness to achieve that. The trends in both countries are clearly very encouraging.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who is scheduled to visit Washington later this month, should make it a point educate President Trump about how India despite its formidable existential challenges is forging ahead with solar and other renewable sources of energy. He should directly let it be known how India has has always deeply respected the science and culture of climate unlike some of the grandees in his own administration, including the president himself.

Trump’s assertion that New Delhi has made participation in the Paris accord contingent on extracting “billions and billions and billions” of dollars in foreign aid has to be honestly contextualized rather than using it as an incendiary line meant to excite his base. I would be the first to support Prime Minister Modi if he makes climate change and India’s extraordinarily responsible conduct a key talking point in his meeting with President Trump.