Thursday, April 26, 2007

2007 NFL Draft Preview: The Big Questions/Storylines

Every year I find a player to be obsessed about. (Most notably, there was the Harvard QB Ryan Fitzpatrick, who reportedly scored a 100* on his Wonderlic, with enough time to spare that he could leave the testing room and tutor a couple other players, too. * - Hyperbole.)

Though I tend to favor late-round/UFA candidates from small Northeast schools (like New Hampshire WR David Ball), there's room for one more budding obsession: Amobi Okoye, the 19-year-old D-lineman from Louisville who will not just be a first-round pick, but will be unlikely to slip out of the top half of the first round.

Now, consider the implications: Forget his eligibility; the fact that he is rated as first-round material as a 19-year-old completely shatters the myth of an NFL age limit as anything more than arbitrary bullshit meant to stifle natural market forces and prop up the free talent pipeline.

Why aren't more people talking about this particular angle of the amazing (and hyper-covered) Okoye story? Sure, his age is a novelty. Sure, the kid is an academic genius and appears to be a genuinely nice guy.

But, more than any of those other things, he single-handedly obliterates the argument that age is a precondition for NFL draft-worthiness. Remember: We're not talking about him being drafted AT ALL; we're talking about him being a Top 10-15 pick.

(Most amazingly, his uniquely young age has come up again and again as a draft PLUS. Because it is! Scouts can tout that factor because he's draft-eligible; god forbid they make a similar case about a draft-worthy college player who isn't age-eligible yet.)

36 comments:

This is 2 days in a row that you have brought up age in pro sports as such a big issue. I think that Okoye may be a good pro, and will certainly be a very high draft pick. But, let's wait a year or two before we talk about him shattering any kind of glass ceiling. First, he may be a once in a generation type of player. He has the intelligence and maturity to match his physical ability, which makes him draft worthy. Second, there have been as many top 10 draft picks that are busts as are pro stars, so where he is drafted doesn't determine the age limit worthiness, how he plays does. Third, the two players who made the most serious run at challenging the age restrictions didn't even turn out to be good once they got to the NFL. One is in jail, after getting cut, after being a very shocking 4th round choice. The other is a total bust, even with first round draft status.

Best - Calvin JohnsonImpact - PSU Linebacker Paul PosluznyUnderrated - Troy Smith (he's the next Drew Brees who also wasn't a first rounder)Overrated - JaMarcus Russell (the next Akili Smith)Cliche - "This is just an honor to be here and to be drafted"

Sadly, my first (and probably last) round of golf of 2007 is already scheduled for 9AM Saturday, so by the time I finish hacking we should be well in to Round 2 of the NFL Draft. I would like nothing more than to cackle endlessly when the fans begin the "Fire Millen" chant.

Actually, thought of something that I can absolutely see happening (well, I can only see it happening if Millen isn't involved). There's a lot of talk about the Lions trading out of the #2 spot, and even more talk about the Falcons being infatuated with CJ.

So, how's this for a scenario that benefits all teams involved:

The Lions deal their #2 overall to Atlanta for the #9 and the Falcons' 3rd and 6th rounds.

New England (hot for LaRon Landry and/or Reggie Nelson) moves some combination of their two first rounders or the late first rounder and a 4th rounder to Detroit for the #9 pick to grab Landry (and if they get lucky, they still have the earlier of the first round choices to try for Nelson).

Essentially, the Lions pick up four picks for the #2 overall spot - a pick that they don't want to waste anyway - even if they move way down in the first round, they still are in prime position to get some good help on both lines. Atlanta gets the reciever they are desperate for, and New England parlays Deion Branch and a middle-round pick into the big-time, #1 safety they will need once Rodney Harrison hangs 'em up.

Any shot of this happening? Or am I just rambling on like a lunatic (what's new?)...

Next year's ROY: Adrian Peterson, OK. Big time running back that could have gone #1 overall in ust about any season if he'd been able to declare. Naturally, the scouts are dropping him like a Seahawks' receiver going over the middle.

Biggest cliche: "First, I'd just like to thank God/Jesus/Allah/Buddah/Moses/Nobody at all because I'm an Athiest/My Hands (a la FredEx)..."

Best - Calvin Johnson (partially because of my GT connection, but mainly due to just watching the guy and having my jaw drop on every other play)

Impact - A few names: Marshawn Lynch, Laron Landry, Patrick Willis

Underrated - Steve Smith

Overrated - Jamarcus Russell (Consider that if he came out last year he wouldn't even be a first round pick. His #1 status is based solely on the Sugar Bowl this year. I'm not saying he's a bad player but he's in no way worth the #1 pick.)

Cliche - "Upside" (that word is just another way of saying they haven't done anything yet)

Guy we'll be talking about in 5 years - Jared Zabransky (Call me crazy, but the guy only wins every game. There's gotta be something there. If he played at a BCS school we would probobly be talking about him as a 2nd round pick)

Overrated - all of the Florida players. Landry will get arrested in an elaborate drug bust. Chris Leak will go surprisingly high (in the 4th round), and will subsequently sit the bench behind Brett Farve and Aaron Rodgers, having the career equivalent of Koy Detmer.

How about this for the biggest impact player: Colorado kicker Mason Crosby. Sure he doesn't play a skill position, but special teams always play an important role (just ask Vanderjagt). He has made a 60 yarder in his career (albeit at home in the thin air), but also holds the record for longest kick at sea level without a tee (a 58 yarder at Miami). In the same game that he kicked the 60 yarder in 2004, he had to kickoff from the 20 due to a penalty. All he did was send the kickoff EIGHT YARDS DEEP into the end zone. That's 88 yards. I don't care if it WAS at home, that's a monster leg. ALso, 127 of his career 184 kickoffs (69%) went for touchbacks. He only made 19-28 field goals last year, but his average MISS was from over 49 yards (including 3 from beyond 60 where most teams send in the punt team). I'm privileged enough to have been at CU for all four of his years, and at every game we would call for Crosby as soon as we passed midfield. We honestly would have been happier with Crosby attempting 60+ yard field goals than touchdowns. Now we all learned from the Janikowski incident that no kicker is worther taking in the first round, but some team will be extremely happy when they draft Crosby later on the first day.

Cliche: "The guy is a football player."@ Natsfan74Overrated - all of the Florida players. Landry will get arrested in an elaborate drug bust. Chris Leak will go surprisingly high (in the 4th round), and will subsequently sit the bench behind Brett Farve and Aaron Rodgers, having the career equivalent of Koy Detmer.

I have to agree with you about Chris Leak. I think he'll have a sub-Danny Wuerffel (who didn't deserve the Heisman) career.

I'm still undecided about the merits of UF's other draft prospects, though I was always impressed by Reggie "The Eraser" Nelson.

Best overall - Joe ThomasBest this year - Adam CarrikerUnderrated - Jared ZabranskyOverrated - JaMarcus Russell (he reminds me of Daunte Culpepper but not the UCF/Vikings Daunte) - he'll still be better than Brady Quinn (Aaron Rodgers soulmate), for what that's worthCliche - I hate them all so much...

big d- The first round takes at least 6 hours, 8 if every team uses the entire 15 mins. If your still golfing for that long make sure you pack the sunscreen.

Best- Calvin JohnsonImpact- Adrian Peterson or Willis. I think a RB will always have a greater impact than a WR. Easier for a LB to have a larger impact. Underrated- Steve Smith USC. Better than Jarrett.Overrate- Jamarcus Russell.Cliche- "great motor" is the worst. "Temendous upside" is another bad one.

Sorry to post twice, but I didn't read the other comments before I posted. Richard K. - funny how we have the same Overrated and expectations for Zabransky but I have to point out, in JaMarcus' defense - Carson Palmer was projected as a 3rd Rounder before his senior year. I doubt anyone in the Bengals organization has any regrets about him at #1.

Going back to your age issue, this is a man that went through college. He has done what it takes most people into their twenties to do. If I had a choice between someone with a bit more seasoning and a kid out of high school with lots of potential I take the seasoning. It gives me more of a view of what he might do as a player. There will always be people who may be ready, but they are the exceptions. It's a good rule making you wait it till your junior year. Without it in a few years the NFL would be a different, and less enjoyable product.

Good point about Carson Palmer. My point about Russell is that he's not nearly as good a prospect as Young, Leinart, or Cutler were last year. Logic would then dictate that he shouldn't go higher than #12 overall right?

I just hope for Al Davis's sake that there's a reason to draft him other than being able to throw 85 yards. We will NEVER see a receiver that can run 85 yards before the QB is leveled. It's also necessary to remember that there have been great QB's (like Brady, Peyton, and that Montana guy) that couldnt throw 50 yards if their life depended on it.

Big D,The word going around Atlanta is that Arthur Blank wants to do everything he can to move up to get Calvin Johnson. I'm not sure about the rest of the scenario, but the first part is probable.

My favorite part of the draft is seeing where all the UGA players are drafted.

Best - Calvin JohnsonImpact - Patrick Willis - LBs and ends usually have an easier time as rookiesUnderrated - Charles Johnson - fast DE with a nose for the QBOverrated - first round QB this year. Russell and Quinn.Cliche - anything Berman says.

Personally, I'm not buying into the whole Calvin Johnson to Atlanta bullshit. It would most likely cost Atlanta a #1, both #2's from the Shaub trade and a #3. It's not a good idea to invest all those picks when the Falcons have so many holes on both lines and the secondary. Especially since a WR isn't a big need (QB is a much bigger need).

There are 2 teams I think should trade up to get Calvin: San Francisco and Minnessota. Both teams have an abundance of picks and both have a glaring WR need. Problem is it would prorobly cost them too much. Tampa shouldn't move up because there's a decent chance they could stay put and get him anyway (its not a stretch to think that the GM's of the Raiders, Lions and Browns are going to do something stupid on draft day like picking a QB at #1 that has the proven ability to overthrow receivers).

If you want a better move for Atlanta, it would be to trade those Shaub picks to get into the mid to late first round and grab either Joe Staley, Cedric Griffin or Jamall Anderson depending on what happens with the #8 pick.

By the way, there are rumors of the Broncos pulling trades to move all the way up to the #2 spot to grab CJ. Do I think they can pull it off? Of course not. However, Shanahan manipulates the draft like his own personal bitch. He's like the Pat Riley of the NFL when it comes to trades (he gets everything and everyone else seems to get nothing). Once again, I don't think they can do it, but I wouldn't be that shocked if Denver managed to make it happen.

(2) IMPACT: Ted Ginn. He'll be a very good #2 quickly, but more importantly he'll be the next Devin Hester- instantly turning around his team's return game.

(3) UNDERRATED: Zak DeOssie- sure, he "only" played at an Ivy League school (Brown), but the kid is perfect LB/DE hybrid size 6'4", 240lbs. and has the pedigree (dad is former Giant/Patriot LB Steve DeOssie).

I just wanted to say that Paul Posluszny is one of the more underrated players. Everybody finds other linebackers to talk about (A.J. Hawk last year for example) and they forget that Poslusnzy usually out plays them. He has a nose for the ball and is a very intelligent and instinctive player. He's also a stand up guy and a hell of a leader. He was the unquestioned leader of a very good Penn State defense the past two years. Whomever drafts him in the latter half of the first round is going to get a hell of a player

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DanShanoff.com is a sports-blog spin-off of my long-time ESPN.com column, "The Daily Quickie." Anchored by an early-morning post of must-know topics, the blog is updated frequently throughout the day with new posts and user comments.