All posts tagged Argentina

The major legal defeat Argentina suffered Monday in its decade-long fight against holdout bondholders could ricochet around the world’s sovereign debt markets, the International Monetary Fund warned Monday.

“We are concerned about possible broader systemic implications,” the IMF said in a statement. “The Fund is considering very carefully this decision.” Read More »

The president of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco told reporters after an appearance in Dallas that he expects the Fed to keep short-term interest rates near zero until the second half of 2015. This is what he has been saying since March. Mr. Williams said the Fed should wait given the state of the job market and inflation and risks to the outlook. His latest forecast comes even though the U.S. unemployment rate fell to 6.3% in April from 6.7% early in the year and the government’s latest consumer price index reading showed some upward pressure on inflation.

John Williams, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, told reporters after an appearance in Dallas that he expects the Fed to keep short-term interest rates near zero until the second half of 2015. This is what he has been saying since March. Mr. Williams said the Fed should wait given the state of the job market and inflation and risks to the outlook. Read More »

Although the high court could announce Tuesday that it will consider the case — one that could have dramatic consequences for how governments deal with their creditors — it may take longer for the justices to decide their course of action.

Argentina in June petitioned the Supreme Court to review a case related to a long-running and rancorous dispute with hedge funds, asking the court to overturn a lower court ruling against the country.

If past Supreme Court practice is any guide, chances are good that the justices will ask the U.S. Solicitor General to submit a brief expressing the Obama administration’s views on whether the court should hear the case. That process could take months. Read More »

Argentine President Cristina Kirchner may have to impose further U.S. dollar rationing on her citizens in coming months as the slide in the hard currency reserves that Argentina uses to pay its import bill and creditors shows no sign of abating, analysts say.

Argentina faces significant dollar outflows at a time when the foreign currency provided by trade, the South American nation’s only significant source of the U.S. currency, is shrinking due to surging fuel imports.

The trade surplus accumulated between January and August narrowed by 32% on the year to $6.29 billion, the government said Monday. With the last few months of the year a seasonally slack period for exports, the Kirchner administration may struggle to reach its latest target of a $10.6 billion surplus in 2013.

If the government’s past behavior is any indicator of future behavior then more belt tightening could fall on tourism and imports. Net dollar outflows from tourism rose to $4.53 billion in the first half as Argentines continued to travel and shop abroad even after the government slapped a special 20% tax on those activities. Read More »

The International Monetary Fund Thursday tried to clear up why it reversed course on filing a brief at the U.S. Supreme Court on the Argentine debt case, saying that the institution’s political neutrality was at stake.

But it did little to elucidate the real unanswered question: why the fund’s most powerful shareholder, the U.S., did its own about-face on the matter.

The IMF and the U.S. Treasury Department faced a battery of questions about why the U.S. originally told the IMF it would support the fund filing, but then suddenly changed its mind, forcing the fund to abandon its plans. IMF managing director Christine Lagarde wants to warn the high court that a lower-court ruling, if it stands, could have dramatic consequences for how governments around the world deal with their creditors.

IMF spokesman William Murray told reporters Thursday that it wouldn’t have been appropriate “at this stage” to file a brief without U.S. support for two reasons. (Around minute seven:). Read More »

“Argentina’s courts, in a welcome moment of sanity, have overruled attempts by Argentina’s government to prevent anyone who isn’t the government from publishing a figure for inflation that isn’t what the government says it is.”

That’s how a post from Quartz put the Monday ruling to overturn heavy fines that the government of President Cristina Kirchner had slapped on economists who published their own inflation data, which the government criticized as “inaccurate.”

Never mind that official inflation data was widely viewed as badly understating the real level of inflation. Even the International Monetary Fund has censured Argentina for dubious inflation and growth statistics, and set a Sept. 29 deadline to fix the “inaccuracy” of its data, or face sanctions.

Until then, Argentines will no doubt continue to operate assuming that annual real inflation by all private accounts is running around 25%, more than double the official rate. Read More »

About Real Time Economics

Real Time Economics offers exclusive news, analysis and commentary on the U.S. and global economy, central bank policy and economics. Send news items, comments and questions to the editors and reporters below or email realtimeeconomics@wsj.com.