No end in sight to 'war on women' attacks

Hardly a commercial break went by in October in which Virginia voters weren’t reminded of Ken Cuccinelli’s far-right views on abortion and other social issues.

How much of a difference the deluge ultimately made after Cuccinelli’s surprisingly narrow loss to Democrat Terry McAuliffe is open for debate. What isn’t in dispute is that Democrats and women’s groups believe their “war on women” playbook worked. And they have every intention of using it again in 2014 even as Republicans and some political observers argue that Virginia didn’t provide a mandate on the issue.

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“I think we’re going to get to a point where how many times do voters across the country need to send the tea party and the Republican Party a message?” Democratic National Committee Chairwoman Debbie Wasserman Schultz told POLITICO at McAuliffe’s victory party. “Stop the divisiveness; stop the polarization; stop the obsessive focus on women’s reproductive health.”

Whether that line of argument can be replicated in the 2014 midterms may hinge on who the GOP candidates are and how they respond. Republicans note that many politicians on the ballot next year haven’t prioritized social issues the way Cuccinelli has throughout his career in Virginia politics — and they vow that their candidates won’t be defined by the subject.

“Being pro-life is a majority position in this country or at least close to it,” said National Republican Senatorial Committee spokesman Brad Dayspring. “Candidates have to explain their positions without getting stuck getting nitpicked to death. … We fully expect the ‘war on women’ politics to be used and exploited by Democrats, [and] we fully expect our candidates to be fully prepared for it.”

Democrats took to the Virginia airwaves and the campaign trail this fall to note Cuccinelli’s opposition to abortion, even in cases of rape or incest, and to say he backed legislation that would have effectively banned certain kinds of birth control, drawing on his record in the statehouse and as attorney general.

“Really, given that God does judge nations, it’s amazing that abortion has run as far and foully as it has,” Cuccinelli once said, one of his many comments seized on for campaign ad fodder.

That messaging came on the heels of the 2012 flood of TV ads bashing GOP nominee Mitt Romney on social issues.

To be sure, there are numerous factors that contributed to Cuccinelli’s narrow loss Tuesday night. But exit polling data showing McAuliffe’s overwhelming strength among unmarried women — he won that demographic by 42 percentage points — suggests that the “war on women” message hit home with many female voters.

“It was the most pronounced I’ve ever seen it,” Dawn Laguens, executive director of Planned Parenthood Action Fund, said, speaking on a panel Thursday about the emphasis on women’s health issues in the Virginia race.

McAuliffe won the overall female vote by 9 percentage points, 51 percent to 42 percent — slightly below President Barack Obama’s margin and far below what polls ahead of the election suggested but 5 percentage points higher than Democratic gubernatorial nominee Creigh Deeds’s support among women in 2009. Cuccinelli won among married women, 51 percent to 42 percent, according to exit poll data.

Republicans say the closer-than-expected race proves that the “war on women” narrative isn’t nearly as potent as Democrats suggest.

“The Democrats tried focusing completely on social issues in Virginia and won by just” under 3 percentage points, said Republican National Committee spokeswoman Kirsten Kukowski, who said Republicans are emphasizing Obamacare.

Charlie Black, a longtime Republican strategist, said the opportunity to hammer away at social issues was fairly specific to Cuccinelli.

“Ken earlier in his career had some things to say about abortion and some other issues that were pretty severe,” Black said, adding that “not very many” GOP candidates share the same views.

There’s also the issue of tone. Some politicians up for reelection in 2014, especially Govs. John Kasich of Ohio and Scott Walker of Wisconsin, have avoided the kind of remarks — like Todd Akin’s discussion of “legitimate rape” — that have sunk other Republican candidates.

New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie’s 22-percentage-point victory Tuesday night provides a compelling counterpoint to the Virginia results. Christie opposes abortion rights but, unlike Cuccinelli, allows for more exceptions and doesn’t stress the subject on the trail. Despite Democratic efforts to paint him as “extreme,” Christie won 57 percent of the female vote.