Tuesday, July 06, 2010

The Twins have developed a reputation for being a team that
hustles all over the base paths, implementing an aggressive approach, and
taking an extra 90 feet or more when the opportunity presents itself. More than
that, they’ve often been lauded as doing so intelligently. According to an
audit of the team’s baserunning on BillJamesOnline.net, the Twins’ results on
the bases have radically changed from the prior two seasons.

In 2009, the Twins scampered around the bases fairly liberally.
Through their efforts, the team netted 42 additional bases going first to
third, second to home and first to home while avoiding outs. Factoring in the
72% success rate of their stolen bases and the 2009 team gained approximately
63 bases above average. The year prior to that, the Twins netted 49 additional
bases through hustle and another 18 by way of theft. This gave the Twins a
positive 67 bases. This was good enough for sixth and third in the American
League in those consecutive seasons. This season, the Twins have posted a -20
mark, the second-lowest total in the AL and their worst since the disappointing
2005 season.

Minnesota Twins

1st
to 3rd

2nd
to Home

1st
to Home

DP

Bases

BR

BR

SB

Net

Year

Adv

Opp

Adv

Opp

Adv

Opp

Opp

GIDP

Taken

Outs

Gain

Gain

Gain

2002

72

222

105

186

25

68

1148

121

175

21

+33

-45

-12

2003

81

238

128

208

25

59

1273

139

186

28

+31

+6

+37

2004

63

218

105

172

25

65

1157

130

168

44

-6

+24

+18

2005

59

243

109

195

18

62

1089

154

153

46

-65

+14

-51

2006

87

275

131

218

24

58

1193

163

186

47

-10

+17

+7

2007

89

240

119

198

26

64

1159

148

154

60

-55

+52

-3

2008

82

245

139

233

28

66

1254

144

211

47

+49

+18

+67

2009

94

328

130

208

33

72

1265

146

197

41

+42

+21

+63

2010

48

161

68

113

20

49

625

95

90

26

-32

+12

-20

Totals

675

2170

1034

1731

224

563

10163

1240

1520

360

-13

+119

+106

31%

60%

40%

12%

(via
billjamesonline.net)

What’s more is that this drop in production on the bases
could correlate with the depressed scoring totals overall. Consider this, in
2008 and 2009, the Twins plated more than 5 runs per game. This year, the
scoring total has dropped to roughly league average at 4.6 runs per game. If
you look over the past several years, a pattern emerges:

Twins on the Bases:

Net
Gain on Bases

Runs
Scored Per Game

2004

+18

4.8

2005

-51

4.3

2006

+7

4.9

2007

-3

4.4

2008

+67

5.1

2009

+63

5.0

2010

-20

4.6

The explanation for such a downturn in the 2010 Twins’ Net Gain involves the higher volume of Twin-killings. While averaging a 12% double play rate from 2002 to 2010, the team is currently posting a 15% rate this season. These two-for-ones have erased numerous runners and muted potential rallies. The simple solution to this problem is to actually get more aggressive, such as starting runners when groundball-prone hitters like Joe Mauer are batting in double play situations.

Likewise, the Twins coaching staff have failed on several occasions to realize the limitations of their players. Jason Kubel leads the team with six outs on the bases, two of which were the results of Kubel getting burned at home plate.

While aggressiveness on the bases is still very much a part
of this year’s team’s DNA, the outs on the bases has adversely affected the scoring.
Part of the blame goes towards not altering their approach in double play
situations and not understanding their personnel’s limitations (a few of Kubel’s
six outs on the bases is due because of poor decisions to send him). Once
again, it goes back to being intelligent on the bases. Improving the efficiency
by avoiding outs would greatly assist in bolstering the bottom-line.

About OtB

"Parker Hageman is the Michael Cuddyer of Twins bloggers -- not the flashiest guy out there, but a solid everyday player. Hageman produces spot-on analysis ... relying on in-depth stats and lots of charts. He takes a sober, performance-based view of players, letting others fall for a player's heart or his leadership skills in the clubhouse. Hageman is one of the four pillars holding up the Star Tribune's TwinsCentric blog."