tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-141496282018-03-06T15:24:33.714-08:00The CognoscentiPolitical CommentaryGrahamhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00663396461467208587noreply@blogger.comBlogger117125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-14149628.post-78563287811236678942008-11-09T02:49:00.000-08:002008-11-09T06:13:07.695-08:00The Better Angels Of This Generation<a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_-CAp_DWPFlc/SRbY5NNHXwI/AAAAAAAAAPc/rJtZLRR_qh8/s1600-h/Obama+2008_McAu(2).JPG"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 400px; height: 176px;" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_-CAp_DWPFlc/SRbY5NNHXwI/AAAAAAAAAPc/rJtZLRR_qh8/s400/Obama+2008_McAu(2).JPG" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5266635291565186818" /></a><span style="font-weight:bold;"><span style="font-style:italic;">"Though passion may have strained it must not break our bonds of affection. The mystic chords of memory, stretching from every battlefield and patriot grave to every living heart and hearthstone all over this broad land, will yet swell the chorus of the Union, when again touched, as surely they will be, by the better angels of our nature."</span>- Abraham Lincoln: First Inaugural Address</span><br /><br />Bill Clinton, for a very long time, represented the best of what Democrats could aspire to. In many ways he was a reflection of his time, and, perhaps, a level of egocentric survivalism that was inherent to his generation. <br /><br />Bill Clinton was like a reality show contestant; plotting, triangulating, and emerging victorious, admirably. He defeated vicious foes that had employed <a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Io9KMSSEZ0Y">loathsome attacks</a> in 1988, eviscerating Dukakis. Those foes were prepared to do the same to the Democratic nominee in 1992 and Bill Clinton was a byproduct of this political reality. He was an antidote to Reagan's Republican national majority that was earned partly through bitter cultural divisions. Those divisions were cleverly exacerbated by George H. W. Bush in his race with Dukakis after Reagan had served two successive terms, winning two dramatic landslides. Many didn't believe it was possible for a Democrat to get elected President in 1992. <br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_-CAp_DWPFlc/SRbbJl9644I/AAAAAAAAAPk/VBs24IVYjb4/s1600-h/UM+protests_clip_image002.jpg"><img style="float:right; margin:0 0 10px 10px;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 132px; height: 200px;" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_-CAp_DWPFlc/SRbbJl9644I/AAAAAAAAAPk/VBs24IVYjb4/s200/UM+protests_clip_image002.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5266637772113503106" /></a> However, much to chagrin of Republicans, in sync with popular culture and compassionately engaged with the economic downturn, Bill Clinton charismatically resonated with an electorate that was redefining itself. The Vietnam era was finally slipping into the recesses of the nation's subconscious, (lying dormant, ready to emerge a decade later after September 11th and the lead up to the Iraq war). <br /><br />Bill Clinton was a good President. He was a smart and practical man, who understood complex policy issues. In power, with the assistance of Dick Morris, he learned how to market himself to the center right. "The era of big government is over," he proudly announced, and slowly, but surely, he lost his compass, if it ever existed in the first place. As he scrambled in his final months to instigate a middle east peace process to cement his legacy it became apparent to me the extent of Bill Clinton's selfishness. He achieved everything he ever strived for, winning two successive terms and retaining the approval of large sways of the American people. But, in doing so, sound economic governance aside, no great strides were made. The success of his re-branding of the Democratic party with notions like the "third way" complemented a society where rampant commercialism was augmenting itself at the root of the national culture. Democrats admired Bill Clinton because he could win. Democrats admired Bill Clinton because of the proficient manner in which he played the game. His campaign staff called him "the secretariat," the ultimate political thoroughbred. If I'm honest with myself, that is why I admired him so deeply, too.<br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_-CAp_DWPFlc/SRbc9yfFqSI/AAAAAAAAAPs/zKn9FHiFEgQ/s1600-h/billclinton-caucus.jpg"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 400px; height: 272px;" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_-CAp_DWPFlc/SRbc9yfFqSI/AAAAAAAAAPs/zKn9FHiFEgQ/s400/billclinton-caucus.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5266639768338671906" /></a>In Newsweek's <a href="http://www.newsweek.com/id/167582?tid=relatedcl">outstanding journalistic opus</a> charting the behind the scenes story from this year's Presidential campaign, the following passage stood out to me:<br /><br /><span style="font-weight:bold;"><span style="font-style:italic;">"Obama was upset with his own campaign after a low-level staffer referred in a press release to Hillary Clinton as "(D-Punjab)" because of her ties to supporters of India. "I don't want you guys freelancing and, quote, protecting me from what you're doing," he lectured his staff. "I'm saying this loud and clear—no winks, no nods here," he said, irritated to take the heat for a clumsy dirty trick he had not known about and would never have authorized. "I'm looking at every one of you. If you think you're close to the line, the answer isn't to protect me—the answer is to ask me."</span></span><br /><br />It's so refreshing to think we have a President who truly understands the meaning of responsibility. After the disastrous last eight years, and the apparent state of denial of the Bush Administration, it is especially satisfying to consider the example this sets for all of us to take control of our lives, stand up for our mistakes, and not allow circumstances to control us or excuse us. A moment like this is the very definition of leadership and an expectation that we no longer have of our public officials in the excess of our growing cynicism and distrust. <br /><br />Like John McCain, and to a lesser degree Sarah Palin and Joe Biden, Barack Obama's success can be directly attributed to his authenticity. He is a good man who has campaigned with integrity, and to me that aspect of his election speaks just as loudly as the fact that we have just elected the first African-American President. While Barack Obama has many parallels with Bill Clinton, and arguably represents a continuation of his policies to a greater extent than Hillary did, Obama also embodies many qualities that are quite absent from the former President. Part of that could be his youth and inexperience, but after being tested so dramatically in this campaign, and never faltering, I'm inclined to believe it is much more than that.<br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_-CAp_DWPFlc/SRbpbEeQCiI/AAAAAAAAAP8/5tRyuwZP2zg/s1600-h/abraham_lincoln.jpg"><img style="float:right; margin:0 0 10px 10px;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 144px; height: 200px;" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_-CAp_DWPFlc/SRbpbEeQCiI/AAAAAAAAAP8/5tRyuwZP2zg/s200/abraham_lincoln.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5266653465522735650" /></a>As Lincoln evoked so eloquently in his 1st inaugural address, national divisions, like those we have experienced these last eight years, can be assuaged by the "better angels of our nature . . . swelling the chorus of our union." And so Barack Obama has uplifted large sways of this country. There is an optimism surging nationwide that many have been longing for, founded on Obama's idealism, intelligence, hopefullness, and integrity. <br /><br />In any democracy a President is a product of his or her era. Like Bill, Barack is a product of his. What inspired him to run for the office in early 2007 was an intuitive sense that people were ready for change. But, in reality that yearning he sensed was about much more than just change. We are in the midst of this new era, and as a result, it is impossible to say, with any degree of certainty, why Obama is so quintessentially of this time. Yes, his election counters the Bush Adminstration failures, and yes, it was a Democratic year. But, like with Bush, Clinton, Reagan, Carter, and Kennedy, Obama's victory says much more than that about who we have become as a nation now.<br /><br />In my opinion, the internet has transformed the consciousness of my generation and that explains the largest part of it. We are no longer an apathetic mass of marijuana bongs, beer pitchers, partying, and ecstasy pills. We are no longer an aimless mass with restricted avenues of self expression. Through the internet we are fully engaged with each other, charting out our own territory in the midst of an enthralling political discourse that is blossoming from youtube, to blogs, to message forums, and chat rooms. We have friends thousands of miles across the globe, from every continent, and country. As a result, we are less parochial, and much more internationally aware. We are environmentally conscious, and economically conscious. We are all activists now in our own way.<br /><br />In addition, this new form of media is creating a powerful context for accountability that dismantles populist concepts like "Joe The Plumber" and counters unfair and dishonest negative attacks with the irrefutable truth of good humor, sarcasm and wit. We are a different nation than we were during the Clinton years, and while Obama has, to a certain extent, led us in this direction over the past twelve months, in many ways, this new generation has led him, too. <br /><br />It is yet to be seen whether Obama will be a good President. It's quite possible that he won't be. But, he has already demonstrated that he is a much greater man than Bill Clinton ever was. To the extent that our leaders are a reflection of society at large I believe this says very good things about where we are heading over the coming decades. Suddenly, the prospect of great progress worldwide within my lifetime on matters of war, poverty, disease, the environment, economic opportunity, and social justice, do not seem so out of reach. <br /><br />November 4th was the day that Barack Obama was elected the 44th President of the United States, but, November 4th was not the day that change came to America. Instead, it was the day that a changed nation, and a new generation, stood up, went to vote, and made sure its voice was finally heard.<br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_-CAp_DWPFlc/SRbrz5nuaQI/AAAAAAAAAQE/QZWQN26dGbI/s1600-h/425.obamafamily.lc.110508.jpg"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 400px; height: 296px;" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_-CAp_DWPFlc/SRbrz5nuaQI/AAAAAAAAAQE/QZWQN26dGbI/s400/425.obamafamily.lc.110508.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5266656091129669890" /></a>Grahamhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00663396461467208587noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-14149628.post-74981289171960248812008-11-02T01:20:00.000-07:002008-11-02T02:24:23.975-08:00My Favorite Moments Of The Greatest Ever CampaignEnjoy.<br /><br />Obama Announces...<br /><object width="425" height="344"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/8WJsuM19-8c&hl=en&fs=1"></param><param name="allowFullScreen" value="true"></param><param name="allowscriptaccess" value="always"></param><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/8WJsuM19-8c&hl=en&fs=1" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowscriptaccess="always" allowfullscreen="true" width="425" height="344"></embed></object><br /><br />The moment Hillary lost the Democratic nomination:<br /><object width="425" height="344"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/MB767W3w594&hl=en&fs=1"></param><param name="allowFullScreen" value="true"></param><param name="allowscriptaccess" value="always"></param><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/MB767W3w594&hl=en&fs=1" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowscriptaccess="always" allowfullscreen="true" width="425" height="344"></embed></object><br /><br />Obama shows that he's got chops in Iowa:<br /><object width="425" height="344"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/rhPxSm9Es0w&hl=en&fs=1"></param><param name="allowFullScreen" value="true"></param><param name="allowscriptaccess" value="always"></param><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/rhPxSm9Es0w&hl=en&fs=1" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowscriptaccess="always" allowfullscreen="true" width="425" height="344"></embed></object><br /><br />Yes We Can:<br /><object width="425" height="344"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/jjXyqcx-mYY&hl=en&fs=1"></param><param name="allowFullScreen" value="true"></param><param name="allowscriptaccess" value="always"></param><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/jjXyqcx-mYY&hl=en&fs=1" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowscriptaccess="always" allowfullscreen="true" width="425" height="344"></embed></object><br /><br />Obama compares Hillary Clinton to Annie Oakley:<br /><object width="425" height="344"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/bzQxFtM9cfk&hl=en&fs=1"></param><param name="allowFullScreen" value="true"></param><param name="allowscriptaccess" value="always"></param><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/bzQxFtM9cfk&hl=en&fs=1" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowscriptaccess="always" allowfullscreen="true" width="425" height="344"></embed></object><br /><br />Obama's comments on Edwards and Clinton's "Biggest Weakness" Debate Answers:<br /><object width="425" height="344"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/1Sfa-tFYLTY&hl=en&fs=1"></param><param name="allowFullScreen" value="true"></param><param name="allowscriptaccess" value="always"></param><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/1Sfa-tFYLTY&hl=en&fs=1" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowscriptaccess="always" allowfullscreen="true" width="425" height="344"></embed></object><br /><br />Obama dismisses the Farakhan issue and Hillary's parsing with ease:<br /><object width="425" height="344"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/OTK_WsgxHJQ&hl=en&fs=1"></param><param name="allowFullScreen" value="true"></param><param name="allowscriptaccess" value="always"></param><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/OTK_WsgxHJQ&hl=en&fs=1" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowscriptaccess="always" allowfullscreen="true" width="425" height="344"></embed></object><br /><br />Obama hits back hard as Hillary plays politics on Bill Ayers:<br /><object width="425" height="344"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/ltSORlXvv50&hl=en&fs=1"></param><param name="allowFullScreen" value="true"></param><param name="allowscriptaccess" value="always"></param><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/ltSORlXvv50&hl=en&fs=1" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowscriptaccess="always" allowfullscreen="true" width="425" height="344"></embed></object><br /><br />Obama's Speech On Race: "A More Perfect Union":<br /><object width="425" height="344"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/pWe7wTVbLUU&hl=en&fs=1"></param><param name="allowFullScreen" value="true"></param><param name="allowscriptaccess" value="always"></param><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/pWe7wTVbLUU&hl=en&fs=1" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowscriptaccess="always" allowfullscreen="true" width="425" height="344"></embed></object><br /><br />Obama Convention Speech:<br /><object width="425" height="344"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/cZ0gxF869NE&hl=en&fs=1"></param><param name="allowFullScreen" value="true"></param><param name="allowscriptaccess" value="always"></param><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/cZ0gxF869NE&hl=en&fs=1" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowscriptaccess="always" allowfullscreen="true" width="425" height="344"></embed></object><br /><br />Pat Buchanan on Obama's Convention Speech:<br /><object width="425" height="344"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/j0Fru4dZLGA&hl=en&fs=1"></param><param name="allowFullScreen" value="true"></param><param name="allowscriptaccess" value="always"></param><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/j0Fru4dZLGA&hl=en&fs=1" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowscriptaccess="always" allowfullscreen="true" width="425" height="344"></embed></object><br /><br />Palin Defends The Bailout:<br /><object width="425" height="344"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/npUMUASwaec&hl=en&fs=1"></param><param name="allowFullScreen" value="true"></param><param name="allowscriptaccess" value="always"></param><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/npUMUASwaec&hl=en&fs=1" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowscriptaccess="always" allowfullscreen="true" width="425" height="344"></embed></object><br /><br />Palin clueless on Supreme Court:<br /><object width="425" height="344"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/0rXmuhWrlj4&hl=en&fs=1"></param><param name="allowFullScreen" value="true"></param><param name="allowscriptaccess" value="always"></param><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/0rXmuhWrlj4&hl=en&fs=1" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowscriptaccess="always" allowfullscreen="true" width="425" height="344"></embed></object><br /><br />Matt Damon on Sarah Palin:<br /><object width="425" height="344"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/C6urw_PWHYk&hl=en&fs=1"></param><param name="allowFullScreen" value="true"></param><param name="allowscriptaccess" value="always"></param><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/C6urw_PWHYk&hl=en&fs=1" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowscriptaccess="always" allowfullscreen="true" width="425" height="344"></embed></object><br /><br />Christopher Hitchens on McCain and Palin:<br /><object width="425" height="344"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/AD8uHW0hbiA&hl=en&fs=1"></param><param name="allowFullScreen" value="true"></param><param name="allowscriptaccess" value="always"></param><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/AD8uHW0hbiA&hl=en&fs=1" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowscriptaccess="always" allowfullscreen="true" width="425" height="344"></embed></object><br /><br />Colin Powel on McCain and Palin:<br /><object width="425" height="344"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/T_NMZv6Vfh8&hl=en&fs=1"></param><param name="allowFullScreen" value="true"></param><param name="allowscriptaccess" value="always"></param><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/T_NMZv6Vfh8&hl=en&fs=1" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowscriptaccess="always" allowfullscreen="true" width="425" height="344"></embed></object><br /><br />Ken Adleman on McCain and Palin<br /><object width="425" height="344"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/NrWwYJoJy3w&hl=en&fs=1"></param><param name="allowFullScreen" value="true"></param><param name="allowscriptaccess" value="always"></param><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/NrWwYJoJy3w&hl=en&fs=1" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowscriptaccess="always" allowfullscreen="true" width="425" height="344"></embed></object><br /><br />David Letterman Eviscerates John McCain:<br /><object width="425" height="344"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/XjkCrfylq-E&hl=en&fs=1"></param><param name="allowFullScreen" value="true"></param><param name="allowscriptaccess" value="always"></param><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/XjkCrfylq-E&hl=en&fs=1" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowscriptaccess="always" allowfullscreen="true" width="425" height="344"></embed></object><br /><br />Obama Knocks McCain Down (if not out) in the Town Hall debate:<br /><object width="425" height="344"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/Qxax48S8S7g&hl=en&fs=1"></param><param name="allowFullScreen" value="true"></param><param name="allowscriptaccess" value="always"></param><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/Qxax48S8S7g&hl=en&fs=1" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowscriptaccess="always" allowfullscreen="true" width="425" height="344"></embed></object><br /><br />Obama Calls Out McCain "He Doesn't Say It To My Face":<br /><object width="425" height="344"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/IDz7iJYJXmE&hl=en&fs=1"></param><param name="allowFullScreen" value="true"></param><param name="allowscriptaccess" value="always"></param><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/IDz7iJYJXmE&hl=en&fs=1" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowscriptaccess="always" allowfullscreen="true" width="425" height="344"></embed></object><br /><br />McCain doesn't do his research:<br /><object width="425" height="344"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/ao5V66m5FaA&hl=en&fs=1"></param><param name="allowFullScreen" value="true"></param><param name="allowscriptaccess" value="always"></param><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/ao5V66m5FaA&hl=en&fs=1" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowscriptaccess="always" allowfullscreen="true" width="425" height="344"></embed></object><br /><br />McCain Inadvertently Insults Pennsylvania:<br /><object width="425" height="344"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/QnE-YJ---GI&hl=en&fs=1"></param><param name="allowFullScreen" value="true"></param><param name="allowscriptaccess" value="always"></param><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/QnE-YJ---GI&hl=en&fs=1" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowscriptaccess="always" allowfullscreen="true" width="425" height="344"></embed></object><br /><br />Sarah Palin Rap on SNL:<br /><object width="425" height="344"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/jgrqsGx56Rs&hl=en&fs=1"></param><param name="allowFullScreen" value="true"></param><param name="allowscriptaccess" value="always"></param><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/jgrqsGx56Rs&hl=en&fs=1" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowscriptaccess="always" allowfullscreen="true" width="425" height="344"></embed></object>Grahamhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00663396461467208587noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-14149628.post-11306271951369001482008-11-01T18:13:00.000-07:002008-11-06T20:40:50.859-08:00Not Again I Hope<object width="425" height="344"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/hvt-HQHqPpY&hl=en&fs=1"></param><param name="allowFullScreen" value="true"></param><param name="allowscriptaccess" value="always"></param><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/hvt-HQHqPpY&hl=en&fs=1" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowscriptaccess="always" allowfullscreen="true" width="425" height="344"></embed></object><br /><br />The dramatic surge against the Labour Party in the UK 1992 General Election, against all opinion poll data, was actually used as inspiration by the Clinton campaign later that year to avert the same occurrence. However, Labour's policies, especially on taxation, were far more left wing than anything Obama is even close to proposing in his platform. Also, Labour's previous stint in power in the UK, from 1975 to 1979 had coincided with a national economic meltdown. For this reason I don't see the same thing happening this Tuesday, as Clinton's time in office is much more re-assuring to voters in Obama's favor. <br /><br />However, I can remember nothing more nationally traumatizing than the Labour defeat in 1992. It was against all expectations and extended the Conservative term in power from 12 to 17 years. The nation had to wait another 5 years until a triumphant 1997 and a Tony Blair victory. But, it was well worth the wait.<br /><br /><object width="425" height="344"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/TQHMUHKCy88&hl=en&fs=1"></param><param name="allowFullScreen" value="true"></param><param name="allowscriptaccess" value="always"></param><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/TQHMUHKCy88&hl=en&fs=1" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowscriptaccess="always" allowfullscreen="true" width="425" height="344"></embed></object>Grahamhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00663396461467208587noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-14149628.post-56734827104494179302008-10-29T18:01:00.000-07:002008-11-09T06:26:42.272-08:00Don't Lose This Opportunity<object width="425" height="344"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/GtREqAmLsoA&hl=en&fs=1"></param><param name="allowFullScreen" value="true"></param><param name="allowscriptaccess" value="always"></param><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/GtREqAmLsoA&hl=en&fs=1" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowscriptaccess="always" allowfullscreen="true" width="425" height="344"></embed></object><br /><br />This election isn't about Paris Hilton, Britney Spears, William Ayers, Islam, Socialism, or any of the other nasty and hypocritical tenets of the McCain campaign. It's about you. The opportunities for you and your family. Your healthcare. The Schools and Colleges that your children will attend. It's about your country and its noble place in the world as the greatest nation on earth.<br /><br />Don't lose this opportunity. Don't let the Republican's manipulate you.<br /><br />Are you better off than you were 8 years ago? Do you have more money in the bank? If you run a small business do you have more customers or less? Does your healthcare cost much more or less? Do you feel more or less optimistic about the future of your children?<br /><br />This election is a choice between change, or more of the same. I understand that people are cynical, but there comes a time when if you're unwilling to take a chance then there is no hope for any of us. Things cannot get any worse than a collapsing economy, national debt that has more than doubled, a deficit that is skyrocketing, unemployment that is on the rise, and housing prices plummeting. Things can only get better... if we have the courage to change.Grahamhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00663396461467208587noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-14149628.post-71519165048137804132008-10-29T02:07:00.000-07:002008-10-29T10:08:41.106-07:006 Days<a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_-CAp_DWPFlc/SQgoKTViuMI/AAAAAAAAAPM/ArO6H1WNjzU/s1600-h/29obama.600.jpg"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 400px; height: 233px;" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_-CAp_DWPFlc/SQgoKTViuMI/AAAAAAAAAPM/ArO6H1WNjzU/s400/29obama.600.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5262500322036857026" /></a>Zogby trends Obama by a small margin, Rassmussen trends McCain down to only +3, Gallup trends Obama... I wish this damn election were over. I dreamt that McCain had won the election last night. A couple days ago I said Obama had to win by a large margin to guarantee his mandate. Right now I'd take any type of victory.Grahamhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00663396461467208587noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-14149628.post-34269510662010881392008-10-28T20:43:00.000-07:002008-10-28T22:13:22.321-07:00Contrasting polling in 2008 to 2004 and 2006Here is an interesting graph showing the RCP tracking poll average from 2004. <br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_-CAp_DWPFlc/SQfc_rzlB6I/AAAAAAAAAPE/fKaLKaNocd8/s1600-h/3waybig.jpg"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 400px; height: 281px;" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_-CAp_DWPFlc/SQfc_rzlB6I/AAAAAAAAAPE/fKaLKaNocd8/s400/3waybig.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5262417676254644130" /></a>For those like me, who are stressing out <span style="font-style:italic;">big</span> time with the election only a week away, it's reassuring to see that Bush's lead against Kerry was consistently smaller than the lead Obama is sustaining over McCain. I haven't seen McCain ahead in a single poll since September. <a href="http://www.realclearpolitics.com/bush_vs_kerry.html">Here is a list of the actual poll numbers</a> leading up to the election in 2004.<br /><br />With so much divergence from pollsters trying to assess the make up of electorate this year it's also fascinating to take a look at the projections for the 2006 senate races, compared to the final results. <a href="http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/writeup/2006_senate_realclearpolitics_poll_averages-63.html">Here are the numbers.</a><br /><br />In the 2006 election in Arizona the Republican performed 0.4% better than the RCP average. In Maryland the Democrat performed 5.3% better. In Michigan 1.5% to the Democrat, Minnesotta 3.4% to the Democrat, Missouri 0.5% to the Democrat, in Montana 2.4% to the Republican, New Jersey 1.6% to the Dem, Ohio 2% to the Dem, Pennsylvania 5.5% to the Dem, Rhode Island 5% to the Dem, Tennessee 3% to the Dem, Virginia 1.2% to the Republican, and Washington State 5.7% to the Dem.<br /><br />It seems as though in the traditionally Democratic states, Democratic turnout considerably exceeded expectations. I think we're going to see something very similar this election. I live in California, and even though this state isn't competitive everyone I've been in contact with is extremely enthusiastic about casting their vote as if it was potentially decisive. One wonders whether the same can be said in traditional red states like Texas, Utah, Oklahoma, etc, where Obama doesn't have a shot. For that reason, based on the numbers above you could safely argue that Obama will poll at least 1-2% better in the nationwide popular vote. Of course undecideds are probably going to break narrowly for McCain so this might end up being a wash.<br /><br />Additionally, it's good to see that in Ohio and Pennsylvania, Democrats also out performed their polling in 2006. I think this bodes well for Obama in both of those states, but especially Pennsylvania where he currently has a double digit lead in the polls.<br /><br />The bad news is that in the competitive red states, Montana, Virginia, and Arizona, the swing went in the opposite direction. As Republican's rallied towards the end of that election it was noticeable just how close both Democrat, Jon Tester in Montana (who had been widely favored to beat Conrad Burns) and Jim Webb (who had opened up a decent lead in some polls against George Allen) came to losing their races. From this you could argue that Republican turnout in Virginia, North Carolina, Indiana, Montana, North Dakota, Colorado, New Mexico, and Arizona might be much higher than is expected. Florida is anyone's guess.<br /><br />The geographic diversity of these trends is what I think has to be taken into account with the current polling. For example Pew has Obama up by 15, Gallup by 7 in their expanded model, Hotline by 8, and Research 2000 by 7, nationally. By comparison Gallup's traditional polling model has Obama up by only 2, and TIPP, Zogby, and Battleground have him up by 3-4 points. Their turnout models are probably all correct, but geographically relative. This is a big country, some parts of which have been harder hit by the economy. I think it's fair to assume we're going to see different things happen in different parts the nation come November 4th.<br /><br />Obama had a magnificent week by any estimation last week. From Colin Powell's endorsement, to the $150,000 spent on clothes for Palin, the infighting between McCain and Palin, it helped Obama reverse a trend that was heading in McCain's favor. State polling is a lagging indicator of the national mood and I think the extent of the leads you're currently seeing for Obama in Ohio, Florida, Virginia, Colorado, etc, are as a result of his successes last week.<br /><br />By contrast, Obama had a poor weekend, and a terrible Monday this week, in my opinion. His campaign have a habit of losing their focus and reverting back to the very general bi-partisan optimism that doesn't translate well into soundbites on the evening news, and it doesn't come close to controlling the national conversation. Obama needs to be on the offense in making focused attacks on McCain. Right now the McCain campaign has free reign to throw their ridiculous bombs at Obama because he doesn't have to compensate for any of Obama's attacks. As far as I'm concerned every sentence that comes out of Obama's mouth from now until election day should include the words Bush and McCain. Obama has earned 50% + support, but now he has to ensure that the right wing attack machine doesn't have the leverage to re-brand Obama as a Marxist, terrorist, muslim, manchurian candidate that is only going to make the economy worse (as if that were possible).<br /><br />However, today the right were unable to sustain that momentum. A McCain campaign source calling Palin a "whackjob" certainly didn't help. That is a good sign for Obama. Zogby's latest tracking poll will be out very shortly and while this should generally reflect Monday's narrative, if there is no trend for McCain that will be a good sign for Obama. Likewise, watch Gallup tomorrow, the most consistent indicator of the direction of the national mood, in my opinion, this campaign season. McCain's only hope is day in, day out, incessant negativity against Obama. Hopefully Bill Clinton campaigning with Obama in Florida tomorrow and the 30 minute prime time advertisement that airs tomorrow evening will assist Obama in preventing that from occuring.<br /><br /><span style="font-weight:bold;">UPDATE:</span> Zogby shows Obama gaining 0.4%.Grahamhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00663396461467208587noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-14149628.post-46643936675322962102008-10-27T20:10:00.001-07:002008-10-27T20:10:55.598-07:00Almost There<object width="425" height="344"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/jVLronKrErY&color1=0xb1b1b1&color2=0xcfcfcf&hl=en&fs=1"></param><param name="allowFullScreen" value="true"></param><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/jVLronKrErY&color1=0xb1b1b1&color2=0xcfcfcf&hl=en&fs=1" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowfullscreen="true" width="425" height="344"></embed></object><br /><br />VOTE.Grahamhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00663396461467208587noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-14149628.post-48277665190501546862008-10-27T14:56:00.001-07:002008-10-27T16:07:15.595-07:00Palin Ally, Senator Stevens Is Guilty!<a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_-CAp_DWPFlc/SQY5THY7dKI/AAAAAAAAAO8/y-58yT3N4-A/s1600-h/guilty.jpg"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 400px; height: 249px;" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_-CAp_DWPFlc/SQY5THY7dKI/AAAAAAAAAO8/y-58yT3N4-A/s400/guilty.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5261956215192908962" /></a> Alaskan, Republican Senator, Ted Stevens, close colleague of Alaskan Governor, Sarah Palin, has been found guilty on seven counts of making false statements for not reporting gifts. Great timing :).<br /><br />"I have a great deal of respect for him," - Sarah Palin on Ted Stevens:<br /><br /><object width="425" height="344"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/YptTFDsktVQ&hl=en&fs=1"></param><param name="allowFullScreen" value="true"></param><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/YptTFDsktVQ&hl=en&fs=1" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowfullscreen="true" width="425" height="344"></embed></object><br /><br /><span style="font-weight:bold;">UPDATE</span> <a href="http://breaktheterror.wordpress.com/2008/09/02/maverickette-sarah-palin-ran-criminal-ted-stevens-527/">It gets better:</a> <span style="font-style:italic;">"Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin began building clout in her state’s political circles in part by serving as a director of an independent political group organized by the now embattled Alaska Sen. Ted Stevens.<br /><br />Palin’s name is listed on 2003 incorporation papers of the “Ted Stevens Excellence in Public Service, Inc.,” a 527 group that could raise unlimited funds from corporate donors. The group was designed to serve as a political boot camp for Republican women in the state. She served as one of three directors until June 2005, when her name was replaced on state filings."</span><br /><br /><span style="font-weight:bold;">UPDATE</span> There's more: <embed src="http://blip.tv/play/Acrwf4eFGg" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" width="423" height="302" allowscriptaccess="always" allowfullscreen="true"></embed><br /><br /><span style="font-weight:bold;">UPDATE</span> It gets better: <span style="font-style:italic;">From Sarah Palin's comments today on Senator Stevens' guilty verdict:</span> <span style="font-weight:bold;">"I'm confident that Senator Stevens from this point on will do the right thing for the people of Alaska."</span>Grahamhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00663396461467208587noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-14149628.post-84538894868015747802008-10-27T13:17:00.001-07:002008-10-27T20:14:07.862-07:00Democrats Are Getting Ahead Of Themselves<a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_-CAp_DWPFlc/SQY1wkdojTI/AAAAAAAAAO0/3KzP9TpM798/s1600-h/whitehouse_back.jpg"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 400px; height: 256px;" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_-CAp_DWPFlc/SQY1wkdojTI/AAAAAAAAAO0/3KzP9TpM798/s400/whitehouse_back.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5261952323166965042" /></a>I am a terrible pessimist and even I can see that Obama is very, very, very close to winning the Whitehouse on November 4th. But, to read most left leaning blogs, or listen to pundits on cable news, you'd think this race was over and November 4th was merely a formality. It's not. Obama leads by an average of 6 points, with a few polls like Battleground and TIPP having him ahead by only 3. We've been here before, with Hillary Clinton in the primaries, and I'm very concerned we're heading for a similar end result this election day with John McCain.<br /><br />The truth is, yes, Obama has all but wrapped up victory. Just as, during the primaries in Texas and Ohio he'd essentially already won the Democratic nomination. <br /><br />The reason he has wrapped up victory is simple: Pennsylvania and Virgina. Currently Pollster.com puts Obama up by almost 13 points in Pennsylvania, and by almost 9 points in Virginia. These results constitute insurmountable leads in the last week of a Presidential campaign. Combined with the fact that in the Virginia Senatorial race Democrat, Mark Warner, is running 30 points ahead of his Republican rival, I just don't see how John McCain can overcome his deficit in the state.<br /><br />With Obama set to hold onto all the states that Kerry won in 2004, with the possible exception of New Hampshire, he is also set to win Iowa and New Mexico (where he has led throughout this election season). <span style="font-weight:bold;">If Obama wins Pennsylvania, Iowa, Virgina, and New Mexico then there is no realistic route via which McCain can get to 270 in the electoral college and Obama is President. </span><br /><br />McCain's team would do well to spend the rest of this week in Virginia because make no mistake, it is the only state that truly constitutes a bellwether battleground this election. It is the be all and end all of victory for McCain.<br /><br />So why I am fretting? Simple. If Obama wins the election by barely a percentage point in the popular vote, and narrowly loses Florida, Ohio, North Carolina, Missouri, Colorado, Montana, North Dakota, Arizona, and Indiana then, just as Hillary's comeback ultimately served as a rebuke, so will McCain's performance exceeding expectations. Obama will be President and everyone will celebrate, but change, even after George Bush's disastrous eight years in office, will be a struggle when his Administration begins in 2009, as George Bush quickly found out in 2005 following his narrow victory against Kerry.<br /><br />If Obama simply stumbles across the finish line late in the morning, waiting for results back from New Mexico, the symbolism of this victory will be mitigated and the right wing attack machine will be energized. They will know that, even in these circumstances, with everything working against them, their ideas discredited, and their Presidential campaign run poorly, the Democratic candidate, wholeheartedly loved by his base, could only muster a closely fought victory. They will rightly see 2010 and 2012 as an opportunity to emphatically set the record straight.<br /><br />The opportunity of this election is to not only win, but to earn a decisive mandate for governance, and to leave the Republican party fractured and in tatters, fighting amongst each other for the right to control their party's identity. If Obama can win by at least 5 percentage points in the popular vote, and win Ohio, Florida, and a host of other states, the message of change will be an earthquake that permanently transforms the political landscape in this country. By contrast, the far right, the religious right, the fiscal conservatives, and the moderate Republicans will be at war for the next two years trying to wrestle control over their own party. If this kind of margin fails to materialize, Obama could be on the back foot from day one.Grahamhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00663396461467208587noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-14149628.post-84332227271236256892008-10-24T14:54:00.000-07:002008-10-24T18:18:40.675-07:00"Wassuppp..." Change<div><object width="420" height="257"><param name="movie" value="http://www.dailymotion.com/swf/k7IynbiZdiD8FvOAj9&related=0"></param><param name="allowFullScreen" value="true"></param><param name="allowScriptAccess" value="always"></param><embed src="http://www.dailymotion.com/swf/k7IynbiZdiD8FvOAj9&related=0" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" width="420" height="257" allowFullScreen="true" allowScriptAccess="always"></embed></object><br /><b><a href="http://www.dailymotion.com/video/x76eg3_wassup-2008_fun">Wassup 2008</a></b><br /></div>Grahamhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00663396461467208587noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-14149628.post-23521368799638619692008-10-24T12:37:00.001-07:002008-10-24T13:55:32.759-07:00A Sense Of Entitlement Runs In The McCain FamilyJoe McCain, John McCain's brother, calls 911 to complain about traffic:<br /><br /><object width="425" height="344"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/_Y6_s3O5Bj0&hl=en&fs=1"></param><param name="allowFullScreen" value="true"></param><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/_Y6_s3O5Bj0&hl=en&fs=1" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowfullscreen="true" width="425" height="344"></embed></object>Grahamhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00663396461467208587noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-14149628.post-51495932558022724892008-10-22T17:25:00.000-07:002008-10-22T23:25:06.592-07:00What McCain Really Thinks About Joe The PlummerFrom his position on the Bush tax cuts, to his negative campaigning flip flop, and his selection of Sarah Palin, undermining all the central tenets of his candidacy, John McCain has made John Kerry look like the model of consistency this campaign season. However, this example below is the worst demonstration of his electioneering yet, in my opinion. Watch as John McCain goes much further than Barack Obama in a response to a questioner posing an identical inquiry to that of Joe The Plummer. Enjoy:<br /><br /><object width="425" height="344"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/YNke6ad0t6g&hl=en&fs=1"></param><param name="allowFullScreen" value="true"></param><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/YNke6ad0t6g&hl=en&fs=1" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowfullscreen="true" width="425" height="344"></embed></object><br /><br />Keep in mind, McCain is justifying a tax code in this video that is far more progressive than the comparitively conservative tax code that Obama is proposing.<br /><br />John McCain = Socialist?Grahamhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00663396461467208587noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-14149628.post-42344390421020034922008-10-20T16:28:00.000-07:002008-10-20T22:42:42.112-07:00The State Of The Race<a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_-CAp_DWPFlc/SP0YJooAReI/AAAAAAAAAOM/lfZsksQlkUk/s1600-h/15debatestatic2_600.jpg"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_-CAp_DWPFlc/SP0YJooAReI/AAAAAAAAAOM/lfZsksQlkUk/s400/15debatestatic2_600.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5259386493641704930" /></a>This is my assessment of the Presidential race as it stands today. Below are the latest numbers from the daily tracking polls (yesterday's numbers are in parentheses):<br /><br />Research 2000 (10/17-10/19): <span style="font-weight:bold;">Obama 50 - McCain 42</span> <span style="font-style:italic;">(Obama 50 - McCain 43)</span> <br />Rasmussen Reports (10/17-10/19): <span style="font-weight:bold;">Obama 50 - McCain 46</span> <span style="font-style:italic;">(Obama 51 - McCain 45)</span><br />Zogby (10/17-10/19): <span style="font-weight:bold;">Obama 50 - McCain 44</span> <span style="font-style:italic;">(Obama 48 - McCain 45)</span><br />Hotline (10/17-10/19): <span style="font-weight:bold;">Obama 47 - McCain 42</span> <span style="font-style:italic;">(Obama 48 - McCain 41)</span><br />Gallup - Traditional (10/17-10/19): <span style="font-weight:bold;">Obama 50 - McCain 45</span> <span style="font-style:italic;">(Obama 49 - McCain 46)</span><br />Gallup - Expanded (10/17-10/19): <span style="font-weight:bold;">Obama 52 - McCain 43 </span><span style="font-style:italic;">(Obama 51 - McCain 44)</span><br />Tipp (10/15-10/19): <span style="font-weight:bold;">Obama 47 - McCain 41</span> <span style="font-style:italic;">(Obama 47 - McCain 42)</span><br />Battleground (10/13-10/19): <span style="font-weight:bold;">Obama 49 - McCain 45 </span><span style="font-style:italic;">(Obama 49 - McCain 45)</span><br /><br />There are many divergent opinions from pollsters about party identification and that explains the disparity you are seeing in some of the results. For example, some pollsters are using conservative models like Zogby, employing party identification percentages from 2004 that favor Republicans. Others, like the Daily Kos/Research 2000 tracking poll, are optimistically projecting a huge Democratic turnout, as has been predicted in some quarters. <br /><br /><span style="font-weight:bold;">Today's average of all the tracking polls is: Obama 49.375 - McCain 43.5. Yesterday's average was Obama 49.125 - McCain 43.875. </span><br /><br />The 2004 Election Map:<br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_-CAp_DWPFlc/SP033sv8hQI/AAAAAAAAAOk/k-fkC6va5-A/s1600-h/mapnader.gif"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_-CAp_DWPFlc/SP033sv8hQI/AAAAAAAAAOk/k-fkC6va5-A/s400/mapnader.gif" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5259421369883198722" /></a><br /><br />With just two weeks left, and McCain running approximately 6 points behind in the national polls, Obama is also enjoying very significant leads in all the states he must win: New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Iowa, Virgina, and New Mexico. Right now, state polls are lagging indicators of the momentum shifts in the race and that won't change until the daily tracking polls begin in the battleground states closer to the election. But, what we can discern is that for McCain to emerge victorious he will need all of the momentum to be running his favor from now until election day. Any day in which Obama is able to stabilize his lead, or expand upon it, makes it much less likely that John McCain will follow George Bush as the forty fourth President of the United States.<br /><br />Based on my average, McCain needs to recover 5.875 points against Obama's lead if he is to level the race and stand any chance of emerging victorious. With the race that close it's likely that undecideds will break for McCain and he will take Florida, Ohio, Missouri, North Carolina, Nevada, and Colorado. That will put him within striking distance of the blue states where, presuming New Mexico and Iowa are out of reach, he'll have to win one of Michigan, Pennsylvania, Minnesota, or Wisconsin. <br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_-CAp_DWPFlc/SP0ojdGAm7I/AAAAAAAAAOU/ZiiXELcHd9s/s1600-h/markwarner.jpg"><img style="float:right; margin:0 0 10px 10px;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_-CAp_DWPFlc/SP0ojdGAm7I/AAAAAAAAAOU/ZiiXELcHd9s/s200/markwarner.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5259404529408973746" /></a>For me, the first problem with this unlikely scenario is Virginia. I think the Democratic candidate for Senate, Mark Warner (pictured right), a very popular former governor, is making this an incredibly difficult state for McCain to win. Warner currently leads his Republican opponent by 20+ points and I can't imagine a scenario where Obama doesn't benefit from this tremendously on election day. Secondly, Obama's leads in those critical blue states that he must hold are very big. <a href="http://pollster.com/">Pollster.com</a> puts Obama's average lead in Pennsylvania at 14 points, Michigan 10 points, Wisconsin 8 points, and Minnesota 7 points. Those are big leads for McCain to overcome in the space of two weeks. Obama's lead in the 2004 George Bush states Iowa and New Mexico are 12 and 7 points respectively, and those spreads have been too stable throughout this election season to change now. That means McCain must win one of those four blue states to get to the magic 270 number in the electoral college.<br /><br />14 days of polling remains. That means that McCain must recover an average gain on Obama's lead of 0.42 points a day. McCain actually lost ground today, ceding 0.625 in the spread towards Obama. Anymore polling days like this will make it next to impossible for anything other than an Obama victory.<br /><br />However, there are some caveats to take into consideration. Firstly, Obama's support is notoriously soft. We saw that against Hillary in Texas, Ohio, and Pennsyvania, where the electorate actually moved away from Obama and towards Hillary in the final days of polling. We also saw it post Republican convention where his lead went from +8 against McCain to -6 in the space of a weekend. Additionally, throughout this entire Presidential race up until the economic crisis began in September, Obama's leads have fluctuated wildly from +15 to -6. The electorate's trust of Obama is subject to a rapid erosion of support given the right set of circumstances.<br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_-CAp_DWPFlc/SP04uAnI_hI/AAAAAAAAAOs/L_OZk0L0aUA/s1600-h/78599745SO086_OBAMA_CONTINU.jpg"><img style="float:right; margin:0 0 10px 10px;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_-CAp_DWPFlc/SP04uAnI_hI/AAAAAAAAAOs/L_OZk0L0aUA/s200/78599745SO086_OBAMA_CONTINU.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5259422302927912466" /></a>Secondly, undecideds typically broke against Obama in the primaries. We saw this in New Hampshire, and in many other states throughout the battle with Hillary. If voters still have reservations at this point about siding with Obama then the probability is that they will resort to their fears and concerns, as opposed to their hope and desire for change, even in this political climate. Also in the 2006 mid-term elections, we saw a similar trend in favor of Republicans and against the Democrats. It has been forgotten, because of the innumerable tight victories Democrats were able to eventually win, but the Democratic lead going into that election should have, in reality, resulted in far more emphatic margins. The United States, ultimately, is a center right nation and these natural proclivities amongst the electorate will always work against Democrats in the closing days of most political races, in my opinion.<br /><br />Taking this into account I think it's fair to estimate that undecideds in the last 3 days will predominantly break to McCain by a margin of 65% to 35%. What this means is that if Obama is leading 50-46 heading into the weekend before election day, we will probably be looking at a final result of something like 51.4 - 48.6 in favor of Obama. The difference undecideds can make is negligible unless McCain is able to draw level.<br /><br />The Intrade Predication Market gives McCain a 15% chance of victory and I think this sounds about right. However, news cycles like yesterday or today are crushing for McCain. The Colin Powell endorsement not only elevated Obama's standing on national security issues, but Powell also launched into a stinging attack on the McCain campaign, the selection of Palin as a candidate for VP, and on the Republican party for its conduct in general (video below). In actual fact, Powell went much further than endorsing Obama as was expected. Instead, he turned into a fully fledged advocate providing some of the most effective arguments for Obama's candidacy that we have heard this election season.<br /><br /><object width="425" height="344"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/T_NMZv6Vfh8&hl=en&fs=1"></param><param name="allowFullScreen" value="true"></param><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/T_NMZv6Vfh8&hl=en&fs=1" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowfullscreen="true" width="425" height="344"></embed></object><br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_-CAp_DWPFlc/SP0z-q2ZDqI/AAAAAAAAAOc/TZ64nSSMMfA/s1600-h/George_Bush_Biography.jpg"><img style="float:right; margin:0 0 10px 10px;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_-CAp_DWPFlc/SP0z-q2ZDqI/AAAAAAAAAOc/TZ64nSSMMfA/s200/George_Bush_Biography.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5259417091585937058" /></a>McCain has only one chance, and that is to pivot away from the negative campaigning, to positively evoke a sense of America's greatness being founded in Conservative ideals. He has to acknowledge that George Bush has failed, but explain that the failure is as a result of George Bush, and not conservatism. This is his only hope.<br /><br />Bush ran a brutally negative and effective campaign against Kerry in 2004, but he did two things differently than McCain. <br /><br />Firstly, he started early. When McCain was running ads about Paris Hilton and Britney Spears, Republicans had already defined Kerry as a flip flopper and a politician with no integrity. McCain simply started the "guilt by association" attacks too late, after Obama had already been introduced and defined positively in the minds of too many. <br /><br />Secondly, Bush did hardly any of the dirty work himself. He came very close to publicly condemning the swift boat ads while surreptitiously co-ordinating their smears. George Bush pivoted from the attacks of surrogates by simply presenting a positive message about the greatness and strength of America . McCain, by contrast, has become defined by the Ayers attacks, or the lipstick on a pig reference that Obama made. He has taken too much responsibility for the work of his campaign.<br /><br />Ultimately, the momentum is with Obama right now and not with McCain. The Powell endorsement, preceded by center right endorsements from newspapers nationwide, have provided the platform for an Obama landslide. Victory for Obama can be guaranteed, not by playing it safe, but by truly winning the hearts and minds of the American center ground, offering himself as a President for all, and not just a President of the few. <br /><br />My final suggestion for following the race over the next fourteen days is to follow the Gallup tracking polls. They have been the greatest early indicator of momentum shifts throughout this political season, with Rasmussen, Zogby, and Battleground always playing catch up. The margin might be greater or smaller, but right now it's all about the trend. No trend for McCain equals no hope for his campaign. Over the past two days Obama has improved his spread by 4 points in the Gallup poll. If this isn't halted within the next couple of days then we will be heading for a landslide of Reagan-esque proportions.Grahamhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00663396461467208587noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-14149628.post-77800940253365442822008-10-18T12:59:00.001-07:002008-10-18T19:40:29.722-07:00100,000 in Missouri<a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_-CAp_DWPFlc/SPqeEInf9bI/AAAAAAAAAOE/hdMaWUByeXE/s1600-h/capt.b0d7184f38d840ae8040d5ab4f6ec120.obama_2008_mojh117.jpg"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_-CAp_DWPFlc/SPqeEInf9bI/AAAAAAAAAOE/hdMaWUByeXE/s400/capt.b0d7184f38d840ae8040d5ab4f6ec120.obama_2008_mojh117.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5258689308778296754" /></a>This is what change looks like.Grahamhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00663396461467208587noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-14149628.post-65779908818770340792008-10-15T20:11:00.000-07:002008-10-16T00:55:50.936-07:00Right Wing Elites Are Out Of Touch<a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_-CAp_DWPFlc/SPayS9Q_FWI/AAAAAAAAAN8/VeBlnyNbrg8/s1600-h/drudge.jpg"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_-CAp_DWPFlc/SPayS9Q_FWI/AAAAAAAAAN8/VeBlnyNbrg8/s400/drudge.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5257585653754828130" /></a>This is not the election of "Joe the $250,000+ earning Plummer" as Drudge has suggested on his website post debate. This is the one year when right wing media elites have been chronically out of touch with the real sentiments of the people. O'Reilly, Drudge, Hannity, Limbaugh... it's not about Ayers, Wright, Acorn, Barney Frank, or a plummer worried that the economy will tank if we revert to a tax code much more conservative than that under the Clinton Administration. I say this as somebody who manages a business that earns considerably more than $250,000 a year. The future of small businesses and our economy as a whole is not threatened by Obama's tax policy. It's threatened by a continuation of the failed Bush economic policies that McCain proposes to continue.Grahamhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00663396461467208587noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-14149628.post-69118334177749969342008-10-10T22:27:00.001-07:002008-10-10T22:59:35.402-07:00She Lied And She Broke The Law<a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_-CAp_DWPFlc/SPA5wf_jgfI/AAAAAAAAAN0/Dzy5SVQwJLc/s1600-h/large_mpgop.JPG"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_-CAp_DWPFlc/SPA5wf_jgfI/AAAAAAAAAN0/Dzy5SVQwJLc/s400/large_mpgop.JPG" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5255764270525940210" /></a><span style="font-weight:bold;">An Unlawful Abuse Of Power.</span> That was the unanimous 12-0 conclusion of a bi-partisan state investigation into Sarah Palin's troopergate scandal. <br /><br />Money quote from the report that was released late today: "Gov. Palin knowingly permitted a situation to continue where impermissible pressure was placed on several subordinates in order to advance a personal agenda." The report goes on to say that Sarah Palin broke a state ethics law that bars public officials from pursuing personal interest through official action.<br /><br /><a href="http://media.adn.com/smedia/2008/10/10/16/Branchflowerreport.source.prod_affiliate.7.pdf">Read the report in full here</a><br /><br />Here is an overview of the scandal from September 3rd, including excerpts of Sarah Palin's emphatic denials:<br /><br /><object width="425" height="344"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/Yi2zGSXIxwU&hl=en&fs=1"></param><param name="allowFullScreen" value="true"></param><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/Yi2zGSXIxwU&hl=en&fs=1" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowfullscreen="true" width="425" height="344"></embed></object>Grahamhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00663396461467208587noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-14149628.post-22883371911945785402008-10-10T16:57:00.000-07:002008-10-10T22:59:57.551-07:00"Demand McCain Stop The Sissy Talk!"<a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_-CAp_DWPFlc/SO_si54d6tI/AAAAAAAAANs/orXdZV3ykw0/s1600-h/36109828.jpg"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_-CAp_DWPFlc/SO_si54d6tI/AAAAAAAAANs/orXdZV3ykw0/s400/36109828.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5255679374562028242" /></a>Those are the cries from the Conservative base tonight. An example from the <a href="http://www.freerepublic.com">Free Republic Message Board:</a><br /><br />"I'm SICK AND TIRED OF THIS HORSE**** and I hope the rest of you guys are too!! BARACK OBAMA IS NOT A DECENT GUY! HE IS FRIENDS WITH A TERRORIST!! HE IS UP TO HIS NECK IN CORRUPTION FROM ILLINOIS STATE POLITICS TO ACORN TO FUNDRAISING TO THIS CURRENT ECONOMIC CRISIS!!CALLING OBAMA A DECENT GUY IS HORSE****! It completely legitimizes this fraudulant terrorist lover! JOHN MCCAIN CROSSED THE F***ING LINE WITH ME TODAY! I’VE NEVER BEEN SO MAD IN MY ENTIRE LIFE! WE HAVE AN ADMITTED SOCIALIST TERRORIST SYMPATHIZER ABOUT TO WIN THE MOST POWERFUL POSITION IN THE WORLD AND JOHN MCCAIN SITS IDLE AND PRAISES HIM AS A DECENT GUY!" <a href="http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2102684/posts">More Here.</a><br /><br />Why? Because McCain made these comments earlier today, trying to control the anger his campaign has fueled over the past few weeks:<br /><br /><object width="425" height="344"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/Kf6YKOkfFsE&hl=en&fs=1"></param><param name="allowFullScreen" value="true"></param><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/Kf6YKOkfFsE&hl=en&fs=1" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowfullscreen="true" width="425" height="344"></embed></object>Grahamhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00663396461467208587noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-14149628.post-39591240598293385742008-10-06T22:49:00.000-07:002008-10-06T22:59:25.931-07:00Guilt By Association? Sarah Palin and the AIP<a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_-CAp_DWPFlc/SOr6NGE2gUI/AAAAAAAAANc/biQd7kMgwZY/s1600-h/100308palin.jpg"><img style="float:left; margin:0 10px 10px 0;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_-CAp_DWPFlc/SOr6NGE2gUI/AAAAAAAAANc/biQd7kMgwZY/s200/100308palin.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5254287018157310274" /></a>Why does Sarah Palin get a free pass? From my <a href="http://thecognoscenti.blogspot.com/2008/09/reverend-wright-re-visited.html">September 2nd post</a>:<blockquote>"I'm an Alaskan, not an American. I've got no use for America or her damned institutions." </blockquote><blockquote>"And I won’t be buried under their damn flag. I’ll be buried in Dawson. And when Alaska is an independent nation they can bring my bones home.” </blockquote><blockquote> - <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joe_Vogler">Joe Vogler, </a> Founder of The Alaska Independence Party (the former quote is still on their website).</blockquote><span style="font-weight:bold;">Sarah Palin's association with the AIP:</span><br />1) According to Lynette Clark, the chairman of the AIP, Sarah Palin and her husband Todd were members in the 1990's and attended statewide conventions. <br /><br />2) From the AIP website: "Our current governor who I mentioned at the last conference, the one we were hoping would get elected, Sarah Palin, did get elected . . . .and there was a lot of talk about her moving up. She was an AIP member before she got the job as mayor . . . " <a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QHFY1otOWjQ&eurl=http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/9/1/4231/18477/878/581881">(Video Evidence)</a><br /><br />3) Her husband, Todd Palin, <a href="http://tpmmuckraker.talkingpointsmemo.com/2008/09/todd_palin_was_registered_memb.php">was a member until 2002</a>.<br /><br />4) <a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZwvPNXYrIyI">And finally, here</a> is Sarah Palin's address to the AIP convention this year.<br /><br />McCain's campaign slogan is "Country First." By contrast, the AIP campaign slogan is "Alaska First -- Alaska Always." <br /><br />Would you be associated for decades with a political organization that professes hatred towards America? Or does hatred of America only matter if its espoused by your pastor, as opposed to your political party?<br /><br />Here is an ad expressing the same sentiment:<br /><br /><object width="425" height="344"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/6eu9Z2hXky0&hl=en&fs=1"></param><param name="allowFullScreen" value="true"></param><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/6eu9Z2hXky0&hl=en&fs=1" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowfullscreen="true" width="425" height="344"></embed></object>Grahamhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00663396461467208587noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-14149628.post-80495496007823901012008-10-05T23:00:00.000-07:002008-10-06T00:10:57.682-07:00John McCain and the Keating Five<a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_-CAp_DWPFlc/SOm3Ev3roOI/AAAAAAAAANU/fpjRn5Z6HII/s1600-h/mccain_keating.jpg"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_-CAp_DWPFlc/SOm3Ev3roOI/AAAAAAAAANU/fpjRn5Z6HII/s400/mccain_keating.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5253931732501766370" /></a>From<a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Keating_Five"> Wiki:</a><span style="font-style:italic;">The Keating Five were five United States Senators accused of corruption in 1989, igniting a major political scandal as part of the larger Savings and Loan crisis of the late 1980s and early 1990s. The five senators, Alan Cranston (D-CA), Dennis DeConcini (D-AZ), John Glenn (D-OH), John McCain (R-AZ), and Donald W. Riegle (D-MI), were accused of improperly aiding Charles H. Keating, Jr., chairman of the failed Lincoln Savings and Loan Association, which was the target of an investigation by the Federal Home Loan Bank Board (FHLBB).</span><br /><br />The core allegation of the Keating Five scandal is that Charles Keating, who eventually served five years in jail for his mishandling of a saving and loan association (eerily similar to our current economic crisis), made contributions to senators and then called on them to resist the passage of regulation. As a result there was a slowdown in the finance industry and the real estate market that many consider a contributing cause of the economic recession in the 1990's. From 1982 to 1987 John McCain received $112,000.00 in contributions from Keating. In addition, McCain's wife and father in law, had invested over $350,000.00 in a Keating owned shopping center. McCain, his family and their babysitter had made nine trips at Keating's expense, sometimes aboard his private jet. Three of the trips were to Keating's luxurious retreat in the Bahamas. McCain did not pay anything for the trips until years after they were taken and the insinuation of impropriety first arose. Keating established similar relationships with four other senators.<br /><br />The facts:<br />Regulators were concerned in the mid 1980's that risky investment practices were potentially exposing government insurance funds to huge losses. Charles Keating's savings and loan association, Lincoln, had become burdened with bad debt as a result of its past aggressiveness. As a result its investment practices were being investigated. For a time it seemed as though the government might seize Lincoln for being insolvent. Keating wanted five senators to intervene on his behalf.<br /><br />On April 2nd, 1987, a meeting with the chairman of the FHLBB (Independent Federal Regulatory Body) and four of the Keating Five senators took place, including John McCain. The senators requested that no staff be present. One of the senators started the meeting with mention of "our friend at Lincoln" referring to Charles Keating. The chairman said he was unfamiliar with the details of that case, but offered to set up a meeting with the regulators in San Francisco that had oversight jurisdiction over Lincoln.<br /><br />On April 9th, 1987, the Keating Five, including McCain met with three members of the San Francisco regulators. The regulators felt that the meeting was very unusual and that they were being pressured by a "united front." At this point the regulators explained Lincoln was under criminal investigation for many serious charges.<br /><br />Lincoln was seized by the government in 1989. More than 21,000 elderly investors lost their life savings. A criminal investigation of Charles Keating followed that was expanded to include the five Senators, including John McCain.<br /><br />John McCain was cleared of any criminal impropriety, but the Senate Ethics committee criticized him for poor judgment for when he met with regulators on behalf of Charles Keating. In 2002, John McCain said these two meetings were "the worst mistake of my life." The Senate Ethics committee did not pursue, for lack of jurisdiction, McCain's delayed re-imbursments to Keating for trips at the latter's expense. One of the San Francisco bank regulators felt that McCain had gotten off too lightly, saying that Keating's business involvement with Cindy McCain was an obvious conflict of interest.<br /><br />There is more: <br /><a href="http://www.keatingeconomics.com/pdf/Letter%20to%20Baker.pdf">John McCain's first letter on behalf of Keating</a><br /><a href="http://www.keatingeconomics.com/pdf/Letter%20to%20Gray.pdf">John McCain's second letter on behalf of Keating</a><br /><a href="http://www.keatingeconomics.com/pdf/Second%20Letter%20to%20Gray.pdf">John McCain's third letter on behalf of Keating</a><br /><a href="http://www.keatingeconomics.com/pdf/Third%20Letter%20to%20Gray.pdf">John McCain's fourth letter on behalf of Keating</a><br /><a href="http://www.keatingeconomics.com/pdf/Letter%20to%20Regan.pdf">John McCain's fifth letter on behalf of Keating</a><br /><br />In conclusion, can the American people really believe that John McCain, who admitted his judgment was compromised during the Keating Five scandal, is the man to clean up the current financial mess on Wall Street? Can we trust John McCain to implement the regulation we need? <br /><br />The same John McCain who opposed Bush's tax cuts for the wealthiest Americans in 2000, because he felt they threatened the government surplus, and in 2008 supports them in spite of defecits and national debt that is spiraling out of control. The same John McCain who promised an honorable and positive campaign and then launched into attack advertisements about Britney Spears, Paris Hilton, and Moses, not to mention saying Obama called Sarah Palin a pig and wanted to teach sex education to Kindergarten children. The same John McCain who chose a clearly uninformed and unqualified Vice Presidential candidate at the age of 72 for purely political purposes. The same John McCain who, now down in the polls, is preparing to "change the conversation" away from the issues that matter to launch a nasty smear campaign against his opponent.<br /><br />Can you trust John McCain?<br /><br />Obama's pre-emptive strike against the smears:<br /><object width="425" height="344"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/qsI_0bV2CZo&hl=en&fs=1"></param><param name="allowFullScreen" value="true"></param><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/qsI_0bV2CZo&hl=en&fs=1" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowfullscreen="true" width="425" height="344"></embed></object><br />The full documentary will be available at 12:00 EST tomorrow here at <a href="http://www.keatingeconomics.com/">www.KeatingEconomics.com</a>Grahamhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00663396461467208587noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-14149628.post-34319827955494513702008-10-04T22:25:00.000-07:002008-10-05T11:34:40.689-07:00Palin Made Things Worse<a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_-CAp_DWPFlc/SOhUx2qRQaI/AAAAAAAAANE/2olQq1ELKSQ/s1600-h/100308palin.jpg"><img style="float:left; margin:0 10px 10px 0;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_-CAp_DWPFlc/SOhUx2qRQaI/AAAAAAAAANE/2olQq1ELKSQ/s200/100308palin.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5253542180790813090" /></a>Daily tracking polls including, for the first time, a full day's polling after the Vice Presidential debate, all show Obama either sustaining or increasing his lead in the Presidential race against McCain. The electorate are thankfully looking for more than a wink and an anecdotal aside from their next VP. However, having failed to win the argument on any of the issues, John McCain, who promised an honorable and positive campaign after winning the Republican nomination, is flip-flopping, planning to pursue an aggressive smear campaign to get back into the race. Expect plenty of McCain/Palin personal attacks against Obama over the next four weeks. McCain will probably justify these unscrupulous and unethical attacks once again on the fact that he didn't get all the town hall meetings he wanted. It's good to know his integrity is so unwavering.<br /><br />John McCain = The change we need.<br /><br /><span style="font-weight:bold;">Sunday Update:</span> Here are today's numbers with 2 full days of polling post VP debate:<br /><br />Diageo/Hotline <span style="font-weight:bold;">OBAMA 48 McCAIN41</span><br />Gallup <span style="font-weight:bold;">OBAMA 50 McCAIN 43</span><br />Rasmussen Reports <span style="font-weight:bold;">OBAMA 51 McCAIN 44</span><br />Research 2000/dKos <span style="font-weight:bold;">OBAMA 52 McCAIN 40</span><br /><br />Also, here is the Obama campaign's preemptive strike against the upcoming desperate personal attacks from John McCain and Sarah Palin:<br /><object width="425" height="344"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/Y42RErUjfAc&hl=en&fs=1"></param><param name="allowFullScreen" value="true"></param><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/Y42RErUjfAc&hl=en&fs=1" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowfullscreen="true" width="425" height="344"></embed></object>Grahamhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00663396461467208587noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-14149628.post-78764966462527892372008-10-02T22:29:00.000-07:002008-10-02T22:43:09.096-07:00Vice Presidential Debate Reaction<a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_-CAp_DWPFlc/SOWw20_FWtI/AAAAAAAAAM8/10ALKSr3JZ8/s1600-h/slide_387_10361_large.jpg"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_-CAp_DWPFlc/SOWw20_FWtI/AAAAAAAAAM8/10ALKSr3JZ8/s400/slide_387_10361_large.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5252798996380211922" /></a>I feel that my predication was right on the money. Palin started forcefully, but slowed as the issues caught up with her memorized talking points. Biden was sincere and authentic at his best, and thoughtless at his worst. She did herself a world of good, and most importantly re-energized the dispirited Conservative base, but she didn't do it as effectively as she did in the convention speech. This won't have the same lasting effect. <br /><br />Post convention polls state that it was an emphatic victory for Biden, but, I think that's yet to be seen. However, while Palin was charming, I think pundits are mistaking that for the type of resonance and informed caring people are looking for. Her tone was just off for me. Overall I think Biden edged it. For reasons I described below, that is actually a big victory for Obama as this is one less game-changing opportunity left on the schedule for the McCain campaign.<br /><br />The best analogy I can think of to describe Palin is a rookie boxer with naturally good technique and a couple of hard hitting punches. But, as they say in boxing, she is chinny. She is extremely vulnerable to a knockout blow, even when she appears in full control. Where Bush could ride with his mistakes and misstatements as if they were irrelevant (quite masterfully looking back) Palin by comparison is completely exposed. Unlike some of the pundits on cable news tonight I do not think the narrative has been transformed about Palin being unqualified for the Presidency. As John McCain would say "There will be more gaffes, I'm sorry to say. There will be more gaffes." Those gaffes will continue to haunt McCain's ability to control the national conversation.<br /><br />Finally, Obama had the best possible candidate on his ticket for tonight (and maybe tonight only) because his authenticity negated an area where Palin could have destroyed an overly political Kerry, Hillary, Gore, or Bayh (who I supported as V.P.) with her "realness." Independent and undecided voters in the country tonight will be talking as much about their positive feelings for Joe Biden as they will be about Palin's charm. <br /><br />Before, the debate I said Obama was essentially up 2 touchdowns approaching the end of the third quarter. I'd say tonight we're heading into the final quarter with McCain/Palin, at best, having to settle for a field goal with their previous possession. The main task of the Obama campaign tonight is to do whatever it takes to disrupt the national conversation being dominated tomorrow by the fact that Palin exceeded expectations. Although, it is quite possible House Republicans will do him a favor on this by voting against the bailout plan again. If the bill fails again, Obama scores, and we head into Tuesday's debate with McCain clearly incapable of leading his own party, let alone the country. Maybe this is just wishful thinking on my part, but we will see.Grahamhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00663396461467208587noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-14149628.post-35393248167859995012008-10-01T23:15:00.000-07:002008-10-02T04:10:17.000-07:00What Biden Must Do To Win The Debate<a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_-CAp_DWPFlc/SORnXpC1RII/AAAAAAAAAMs/6bfMuKVRVbQ/s1600-h/NALEO+-+Senator+Joe+Biden_exlarge_39767087.JPG"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_-CAp_DWPFlc/SORnXpC1RII/AAAAAAAAAMs/6bfMuKVRVbQ/s400/NALEO+-+Senator+Joe+Biden_exlarge_39767087.JPG" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5252436721273226370" /></a>While everyone enthusiastically awaits the Vice Presidential debate, expecting gaffe's, misstatements, and further embarrassment for Sarah Palin, insufficient emphasis is being placed on tomorrow night's importance. There are two major reasons why I believe this debate could hugely contribute towards the eventual victor in this race: <br /><br /><span style="font-weight:bold;">1. John McCain was outstanding in the Presidential debate.</span> He may have lost in every poll and dial meter, but last Friday John McCain was at his best. He brought his extensive assessment of policy issues on the subjects that suit him best politically. He savaged Obama on the issue of Iran and negotiating without pre-condition. He pivoted off the economic crisis and controlled the conversation on earmarks and spending. He emotively reached out to the American people with the substantive promise of victory in Iraq.<br /><br />And, it didn't work. For the same reason John Kerry managed to win all 3 debates in 2004 and lose that election to President Bush. He wasn't likeable, and on all the issues that mattered, Obama more than held his own. McCain appeared mean, angry, and disrespectful to Obama. He repeatedly derided Obama's lack of understanding and naivety when it was patently clear that Obama had demonstrated an extensive understanding of the issues, and that the differences between him and McCain were a matter of perspective. <br /><br />The next two Presidential debates will be focused on domestic policy and John McCain can either attempt to learn from his mistakes, being more cordial and respectful to Obama to compensate for his off-putting crankiness (potentially undermining his narrative that Obama is an inexperienced danger to America), or he can continue the attack orientated posture he staked out last Friday, undermining his independent and bi-partisan appeal. Either way, the chances of any game-changing debate moments for McCain have significantly receded. Barring a Reverend Wright style controversy that dramatically puts Obama on the defensive, I just don't see how McCain's debate performances can improve over the coming weeks. <br /><br /><span style="font-weight:bold;">2. Obama is now in a very strong position.</span> It's the equivalent of being up 2 touchdowns, with possession of the football approaching the end of the 3rd quarter. Another touchdown now can leave the opposition with just too much to do. Likewise, failure to score and conceding a touchdown allows the opposition back into the game and turns all the momentum against you. We saw that with Obama and Hillary in Texas, Ohio, and Pennsylvania.<br /><br />Obama has a national lead average of <a href="http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/general_election_mccain_vs_obama-225.html">5.3% according to RCP</a>, and critically he is hitting 50% in many of the polls that are being released. Make no mistake, this is a significant national lead, and while Obama's support is notoriously soft, time is running out for game-changers like the Republican National Convention. Obama is also now ahead in Ohio, Florida, North Carolina, Virginia, Colorado, Nevada, and he is extremely competitive in Missouri and Indiana. Do you know how many of these states Obama needs to win to be victorious on November 4th? If he can hold onto New Hampshire, Michigan, and Wisconsin, Obama needs to win only one of these states. That is how up against it the McCain campaign is right now.<br /><br /><span style="font-weight:bold;">If Biden wins emphatically, and Palin struggles, then an additional boost in the polls for Obama could essentially put this race out of McCain's reach. Likewise, short on opportunities for game-changers, this is a huge chance for the McCain campaign to get themselves back in the game. After all, debate expectations for Palin are about as low as they were before her outstanding speech at the Republican convention in August.</span><br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_-CAp_DWPFlc/SOR5tBY2bPI/AAAAAAAAAM0/FtI2dsYcUBw/s1600-h/04-22-HILLARY-OBAMA.jpg"><img style="float:left; margin:0 10px 10px 0;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_-CAp_DWPFlc/SOR5tBY2bPI/AAAAAAAAAM0/FtI2dsYcUBw/s200/04-22-HILLARY-OBAMA.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5252456879794580722" /></a>The Obama campaign, ahead of the curve as ever, has brilliantly insisted upon standing lecterns for the debate. This will dramatically inhibit Palin's ability to get folksy and colloqial with Biden and the moderators. The spotlight will be sharper, and there will be a greater requirement for stature. <br /><br />Biden must be cautious, but authentic. Biden's strength is also his weakness. He has a big heart, he's rhetorically ambitious, and he's very sincere. As a result, sometimes he isn't particularly thoughtful. But, Biden really does care about the issues involved, plus real people and their suffering. That should be his objective, to demonstrate to the electorate his comparative experience and expertise, but to also show middle class Americans that he's on their side. He must not pro-actively engage with Palin, however, if she hits him hard, and at times she will, he can't take it lying down either. He must also leave Sarah Palin to make her own mistakes, rather than forcing them, just like Gore shouldn't have forced the issue with Bush in 2000 making himself look petty and un-presidential while Bush hovered above the fray with his wafer thin populist jargons. <br /><br />But, as an aggressive tactic I think Biden should take the debate into tangential areas that Palin won't have done her homework on. On foreign policy he should talk about the tensions between India and Pakistan, or the role of Ukraine in the current tensions with Russia (as McCain tried to against Obama). On economics he should talk about the role of China as a burgeoning economic superpower. On healthcare he should talk about people who already have coverage, but can't afford the deductables, prescription drugs, and don't go to the doctor, potentially making their ailments much more severe. On women's issues he should talk about the reality of criminalizing abortion, and the way in which prior to Roe vs. Wade poor women across America risked and lost their lives getting back street abortions. Should a woman who has been raped and chooses to have an abortion be criminalized? That is the reality of Sarah Palin's position and that's the context within which the issue should be framed.<br /><br />Finally, here are some examples of how effective Sarah Palin can be as a debater.<br /><object width="425" height="344"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/UYaJkWUBP3s&hl=en&fs=1"></param><param name="allowFullScreen" value="true"></param><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/UYaJkWUBP3s&hl=en&fs=1" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowfullscreen="true" width="425" height="344"></embed></object><br /><br />Here are some examples of how little she knows about national and international issues:<br /><object width="425" height="344"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/zndVaZ89hU0&hl=en&fs=1"></param><param name="allowFullScreen" value="true"></param><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/zndVaZ89hU0&hl=en&fs=1" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowfullscreen="true" width="425" height="344"></embed></object><br /><object width="425" height="344"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/xRkWebP2Q0Y&hl=en&fs=1"></param><param name="allowFullScreen" value="true"></param><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/xRkWebP2Q0Y&hl=en&fs=1" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowfullscreen="true" width="425" height="344"></embed></object><br /><object width="425" height="344"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/MJ6jxEjlwA4&hl=en&fs=1"></param><param name="allowFullScreen" value="true"></param><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/MJ6jxEjlwA4&hl=en&fs=1" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowfullscreen="true" width="425" height="344"></embed></object><br /><br />My prediction is that the Obama campaign will have trained Joe well, and after an aggressive start Palin will slow down to be undone by policy issues beyond her breadth of knowledge. George Bush was the great misunderestimated debater, whose political skills and breadth of general policy and world knowledge was actually much more expansive than he was given credit for. This time tomorrow we'll know how well Sarah Palin crammed for this test, and if she has also been underestimated by Democrats. <br /><br />Of course, a completely different point would be to ask whether any potential President should need to cram for these basic issues at all. Especially, at such a time of national crisis and war.Grahamhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00663396461467208587noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-14149628.post-57172757884163263972008-09-29T18:17:00.000-07:002008-09-29T20:08:56.127-07:00House Republicans Throw A Tantrum...<a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_-CAp_DWPFlc/SOGGok7zMXI/AAAAAAAAAMk/AcwP9V_X--8/s1600-h/babies_crying.jpg"><img style="float:left; margin:0 10px 10px 0;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_-CAp_DWPFlc/SOGGok7zMXI/AAAAAAAAAMk/AcwP9V_X--8/s200/babies_crying.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5251626672158093682" /></a>The House of Representatives defeated the bailout plan for the economy today 228 votes to 205. House Republicans voted 133 against and 65 for the plan, dooming its passage to failure in spite of President Bush and John McCain's efforts to the contrary. Was this a principled stand by Republicans against government intervention in a free market society? Were they worried about your tax dollars being wasted on Wall Street welfare? Don't be silly. Nancy Pelosi hurt their feelings in a speech so they bailed on the American people. See here:<br /><br /><object width="425" height="344"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/aJXWBt89qRc&hl=en&fs=1"></param><param name="allowFullScreen" value="true"></param><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/aJXWBt89qRc&hl=en&fs=1" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowfullscreen="true" width="425" height="344"></embed></object><br /><br />It's nice to know that such profound judgment on these matters is executed on behalf of the American people when House Republicans vote. <br /><br />And our would be President: <br /><span style="font-style:italic;">"I am confident that before the markets open on Monday we can achieve consensus on legislation that will stabilize our financial markets, protect taxpayers and homeowners, and earn the confidence of the American people. All we must do to achieve this is temporarily set politics aside, and I am committed to doing so."</span> <span style="font-weight:bold;">- John McCain, Wednesday, September 24th, on suspending his campaign and trying to delay the debate.</span><br /><br />His senior campaign advisor:<br /><span style="font-style:italic;"> "What Senator McCain was able to do was to help bring all of the parties to the table, including the House Republicans, whose votes were needed to pass this."</span> <span style="font-weight:bold;">- Steve Schmidt, Meet the Press, Sunday, September 28th.</span><br /><br />His campaign spokeswoman: <br /><span style="font-style:italic;">"We're optimistic that Senator McCain will bring House Republicans on board without driving other parties away, resulting in a successful deal for the American taxpayer."</span> - <span style="font-weight:bold;">Kimmie Lipscomb, Friday, September 26th.</span><br /><br />John McCain = The change we need.Grahamhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00663396461467208587noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-14149628.post-41055685430733224062008-09-27T16:20:00.000-07:002008-09-27T17:38:42.051-07:00Proud<a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_-CAp_DWPFlc/SN6_2gBNKZI/AAAAAAAAAMU/uZtCILinmG0/s1600-h/BARACK-hope-POSTER.jpg"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_-CAp_DWPFlc/SN6_2gBNKZI/AAAAAAAAAMU/uZtCILinmG0/s400/BARACK-hope-POSTER.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5250845158589409682" /></a>In last night's debate John McCain really brought it on everything from earmarks, to Iraq, Iran, Russia, and the United States' responsibility in the world. Obama stood toe to toe with him on every issue, demonstrated his fundamental concern for middle class Americans, and explained why our predominant focus on Iraq is having a detrimental affect elsewhere. He demonstrated a breadth of knowledge and understanding, as did McCain, that has been sorely lacking in the White House for eight years.<br /><br />The moment regarding two bracelets from mothers expressing different sentiments on Iraq was a powerful, culturally significant moment that really said so much about our divisions as a nation. <br /><br />Only in America can a candidate like Barack Obama be possible. There was no question last night that Democrats made the right decision in making him our nominee.Grahamhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00663396461467208587noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-14149628.post-16317907751171208522008-09-26T03:00:00.000-07:002008-09-26T08:37:20.039-07:00Unstable<a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_-CAp_DWPFlc/SNyy3qdRjuI/AAAAAAAAAMM/JIzS2HTf-_E/s1600-h/AP060919011423.jpg"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_-CAp_DWPFlc/SNyy3qdRjuI/AAAAAAAAAMM/JIzS2HTf-_E/s400/AP060919011423.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5250267934966779618" /></a>The country faces a terrible financial crisis. That much is certain. <br /><br />As a result of Treasury Secretary Paulson's dire warnings, echoed last night by President Bush in his televised address, there is panic cascading through families and businesses nationwide. While the fear mongering maybe a political calculation on the part of the administration to force through their proposal in congress, that doesn't the change the fact that we should be very, very afraid about our economic future: Unemployment is rising, the economy is on the precipice of recession, we have gone from 4 trillion dollars of national debt, to almost 10 trillion dollars during the span of the Bush administration. The deficit is literally exploding and now our financial institutions are in disarray. <br /><br />We the people need a solution from our leaders. The marketplace requires immediate action and re-assurance. We cannot try to solve all our problems with this current bill. That requires extensive study, debate and leadership and should follow the bailout, in my opinion, along with Hillary Clinton's proposal of a moratorium on housing foreclosures.<br /><br />What's lacking in our economy is confidence in the fundamentals. There is no confidence in the President, in the treasury, and in Ben Bernanke. The economy is inflating and deflating on nothing but hot air. We need a more solid and less dramatic approach to economics akin to the financial management of Robert Rubin in the 1990's, the informed leadership of President Clinton, and also, to be fair, the fiscal discipline of the Republican congress (before they evolved into closet socialists expanding the role of government and spending beyond record levels).<br /><br />So given the crisis, and the urgent requirement for a speedy and surefooted solution, what does John McCain do? He panics. <br /><br />At first he suggests the fundamentals of our economy our strong. Then he opposes the bailout plan, before supporting it. Then after supporting the plan he tries to scupper it in today's meeting with Bush and Obama, so he can come up with a new proposal that he can take credit for. He says that as President he would fire the SEC chairman Christopher Cox, even though a President doesn't have the power to do that. <br /><br />And, now, as his poll numbers plummet in critical battleground states in Michigan, Florida, North Carolina, Indiana, Colorado, and Wisconsin, he decides that what the delicate negotiations between Democrats and Republicans on the hill require is an infusion of Presidential politics. Now instead of focusing on what can be agreed upon by all parties, we are going to have a drawn out procession of political posturing on both sides, jeopardizing the economy even further. McCain says he's suspending his campaign, but the reality is that he's continuing to run ads, send out surrogates, and give interviews to network news. <br /><br />Ironically, after spending the entire campaign suggesting that Obama puts politics before country, it's McCain that has put his political ambitions above his integrity and the nation at every turn. He opposed the Bush tax cuts for the wealthiest Americans precisely because of the exponentially growing national debt, and yet, running for the Republican Presidential nomination he changed his position for political expediency. He promised an honorable campaign without any negative advertising, and then proceeded to run ads about Britney Spears and Paris Hilton at a time of national crisis. He flat out lied about Obama's desire to teach sex education to kindergarten children, while also suggesting, disingenuously, that Obama had called Vice Presidential candidate, Sarah Palin a pig, when McCain had said exactly the same words about Hillary Clinton. <br /><br />The truth is that Democrats have to do what's in the best interest of the country. If the Republican's won't agree to this urgent deal to assist our financial institutions then I believe they should press ahead and pass the bill without their support. It may not be politically beneficial for Obama, but right now, it's what the country needs.Grahamhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00663396461467208587noreply@blogger.com