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Wednesday, April 19, 2017

The Coming Left-Wing Crack Up

What's going to happen when Sanders guys figure out that Democrats still don't really want Bernie? For, well, decades, The Left has run on the theory that when things got bad enough they'd be the clear and obvious answer. That was the theory behind opposing Obama. That was the theory behind hating Clinton's triangulation.

Now it's happened--the right has gotten "everything they want" (virtually full control of government, Good SCOTUS picks, a solid political-correctness back-lash) and it's a disaster. Trump can't pass his agenda--heck, we don't even know what "Trump's agenda" really is.

If everyone projected their hopes-and-dreams onto the empty slate of Obama, it's 10x worse with Trump: Coal Miners with Black Lung are about to see their health care funding run out years before they can get Medicare while, at the same time, the companies they work for got some tax-breaks they're going to use to build solar farms or some shit.

Russia is buzzing us with nuke-capable bombers for some damn reason and Trump seems to have lost a carrier group during his Show of Strength.

Forget about Tax Reform--we might not keep the government open.

So now? NOW IS THE AGE OF BERNIE.

Right?

Wrong. Bernie Won't Be The 2020 Choice

Sanders Supporters (Bernie Bros?) think that since he polls decently well (55% favorable, 32% unfavorable)--better than almost every other active politician in the presidential arena--that he's the Choice of the New Generation.

Well, he is--the kids like him--but the grown-ups aren't going to pick someone who, essentially, ran as an insurgent and cost them the election. Sorry guys: Sanders didn't acquit himself nearly well enough to be an honorary Democrat.

In fact, it's possible, they won't even let him run as a Democrat again (The Omnivore is unclear on how, precisely, he would be stopped in all cases--but is pretty sure it could be done). Sander's unique popularity isn't entirely unfounded on his persona--which reasonably authentic--or his positions--which appeal to kids who want free college and angered 99%'ers--but it is very importantly a factor of:

Republicans loving him because they think they could beat him more easily than Hillary. If you're laughing about this, you don't know much about politics.

No one actually "running against him." Hillary went easy on him. R's propped him up.

Sanders not being Hillary. Hillary is not, in fact, "likable enough." Vast swaths of the country--GOP and Dem, hate her. Much of this is due to partisanship. A lot is due to believing decades of heavily investigated lies that have relentlessly been proven unfounded. Some of it is due to sexism. Some of it is due to Hillary herself. How much is in each category is up for discussion--but she was not (and is not) a popular or charismatic candidate. Being !Hillary in that area is a huge bonus (also being !Trump, which Sanders had the advantage of also being).

The end-game here is Sanders-Supporters who will never accept anything but that it's proven he would have won coming face-to-face with the fact that Sanders has a large number of negatives. One of the key negatives is that he was a spoiler in 2016.

BUT NONE OF THAT IS TRUE!!

The Omnivore can hear you now--red faced and angry--claiming you're laughing. Trust The Omnivore: it's all true. That's why it makes you angry. But let's break it down just a little:

In case anyone isn't aware, let's keep in mind that last night there was a special election and some rando Dem and Independent candidates got 1% of the vote. That wouldn't quite have been enough to win for Ossoff--but it would have put him within 1% of outright victory. If you are wondering if Democrats are auditioning for the title of "The Stupid Party," well, there you go.

What Happens When This Comes To A Head?

Immediately? Probably very little. This will come to "a head" in 2018 and then 2020 (Sanders is not going to run for every House Seat and he probably won't run for president)--but the fallout will remain: Bernie Bros will still feel not only entitled to the Democratic party apparatus but also vindicated by Trump (rather than "responsible for")--and Democrats will, wisely, view them with distrust (if not outright scorn). So there will be a reckoning. The only question is if it's big or little.