Top 10 Fantasy Prospects

I've played in a variety of leagues and know the ins and outs of most all of them. This past season I played in 15 different leagues this past season on ESPN, my fantasy baseball program of choice. The leagues had different settings, different amounts of members, different amounts of players, but I finished with an average of 3.4th place. The only leagues I don't like are rotisserie leagues that are based on percentages and a good combination of power, speed, average, ERA, WHIP, and saves. They are more difficult to master because a team needs to be very balanced. I prefer point value leagues that quantify every statistic. In my opinion the way to win leagues is to draft with insight and potential in mind.

The DraftOverview: Drafting creates a core of players that can either carry your team to victory. Some of it is luck, some is skill. The first couple of picks should be conservative and based on consistency. I advise waiting on pitching; good pitching is available when good and consistent batting is not. Hiroki Kuroda and Jon Lester were still available when players like Jose Altuve and Angel Pagan were left. A batter can provide consistent points every day but an unfavorable matchup can be unpredictable once or twice a week. The first ten picks should be seven batters and three pitchers. The middle of the draft are usually boring picks that will serve as decent players.

Bad Seasons and Free Agency: A bad season was a bad season for a reason: players do not just change upon switching teams or having another season under their belts. Players will not suddenly fulfill their potential upon switching teams or play like the ghost of their former self. Albert Pujols had a bad 2012 season for a reason and I knew to avoid him at all costs in the early rounds. A similar example was Dan Haren; do not view him as the pitcher he used to be, view him as he played last season. Free agency also can be disastrous for drafters because it always overhypes free agents that go to new teams. B.J. Upton and Justin Upton were seen as potential greats just because they changed location. In fact, most of the time, switching teams often leads to worse play (see Josh Hamilton, Albert Pujols). A tiger cannot change its stripes as is true for MLB players. Very rarely will a player suddenly get much better or much worse. Potential and Insight: The end of the draft is probably the most important part of the draft despite what people may think. This is where the insight and potential comes into play. Knowing more about baseball than your opponents can lead to better picks. For example, I watched the spring training game where Patrick Corbin pitched extremely well against the Reds. I recognized his potential and solid arsenal and drafted him in certain leagues with some of the last picks of the draft. Most will spring training statistics don't matter-this is true for veterans and those with an assured role. Players that are working for a spot will give it their all in spring training just to play. Another bargain this past season was Matt Harvey, a player who dominated in his short time in the MLB in 2012, but went largely unnoticed. I took advantage of the ignorance of others to pick up Harvey in the late rounds as well. The last notable insight was gained in learning about Justin Masterson's new pitching mechanic that he worked in spring training. The little switch helped him improve by over an entire run on his ERA this season. In super deep leagues, potential also pays off. Picking Wil Myers, a call-up who could be excellent, over a player who may guarantee you forty RBI and forty runs over a season will help lead to a championship. Average: Another good drafting strategy is batting average. Average is more important than power or speed or production. Hits will account for more of a player's value than RBIs or runs. The Team: Take into account that a player playing on a team that won't score many runs will not have as many RBIs or Rs as you may want. Don't make the mistake of drafting a player like Giancarlo Stanton because he can hit well - the Marlins lineup around him is weak and will allow for less run scoring opportunities. The other side to this is that a Detroit Tigers lineup will have great effects on what Omar Infante can produce outside of Detroit.

Free AgencyOutside Knowledge: Following MLB analysts and keeping up to date on major transactions on Twitter is not a bad idea. It can help you to have outside knowledge on a certain player's development and even recommend some players to pick up.Not Overreacting: A player of yours is having a cold streak; he hasn't gotten a hit in a week. Do not overreact and dump the player unless it is the last week of the season. Unless the player continues to underperform for a month, do not drop him. Stash him on the bench or hope for a breakthrough. The worst feeling in the world is dropping a player that goes on a hot streak and is picked up by an opponent. Don't Be Afraid to Pick Up/Drop a Player: I know it seems like I am contradicting myself here from what I said before, the difference is that you should be able to realize when a player won't come out of a slump. Downward trending or extreme slumps are usually season ending. Therefore, players like B.J. Upton should have been dropped by early May. Also, if a player has been dropped that pertains to the rule above then pick him up and gloat when he turns around and produces. I found scattered players all over my fantasy leagues that had been dropped by overreacting owners and picked them up. Not falling for a single game: Dioner Navarro had a three homer game this season... as a backup Cubs catcher. Phillip Humber threw a perfect game last year... and finished with a 6.44 ERA. Your star pitcher lets up eight runs in three innings.... but finishes with a 3.00 ERA and 200 strikeouts. Don't let these fool you.Pay Attention: Not paying attention to your league is probably the biggest reason for failure. Even if it is just for a minute every day, in that minute you can set your lineup and browse the free agents you may need. Buy Low and Sell High: Take advantage of monster games that players had that were already on your team. Most people won't fall for a player that was just picked up a day ago and offered the next day. Players that are going on the DL are a perfect time to buy low. As long as you have a decent fill-in for the time being, make an offer on the injured David Price or Troy Tulowitzki. But also remember to sell high. If a normally bad player manages to string three great starts together, don't be afraid to offer him up for a more consistent player. Gerrardo Parra and James Loney both went on hot streaks for a while in 2013 but were not usually that good for fantasy purposes; that is when you should sell high.

Super-Deep LeaguesI played in two super-deep leagues this past season. For me, super-deep leagues qualify as maximum leagues only. Unfortunately, both leagues were slightly flawed in point values or restrictions as I will explain later. The two leagues I played for on ESPN was for 20 people to fill 40 roster spots each. Twenty people times forty roster spots means 800 players. Only 750 players are in the major leagues at one point or another. These types of leagues are really fun for someone with a huge baseball knowledge and help to inform you on the players that are on the fringe of the MLB and bounce between the majors and the minors. The first league used an enormously high scoring system that was based around batting. Batters produced on average what pitchers could produce in one start, essentially making batters seven times as valuable than pitchers. I realized this and did not draft a single pitcher until the fifteenth round, picking consistently in the lineup batters. After getting some starters scattered throughout the draft, my attention turned to prospects. Players that could provide potentially much higher points than anyone who was left otherwise could. Players such as Wil Myers, Tony Cingrani, and Chris Archer were picked up and stashed on my small bench until they were called up. The second league I was in was also focused around batting but had an awful restriction. Only five starting pitchers were allowed out of 20 pitching spots. 15 relief pitchers had to be on your team, which led to there being only about five usable relief pitcher in free agency at any point in time. Relief pitchers only even received about three points an appearance versus a batter that earns about ten points a game. When playing in super-deep leagues like these, be sure to check the restrictions and point values before entering the draft because it can help create your draft strategy.