Fantasy Football Consistency: Tight Ends

Bob Lung shares the most consistent wide receivers of 2016 and his projections for 2017. Follow him @bob_lung

The tight end position has some serious depth issues heading into 2017. Tier One is fine and is made up of very consistent tight ends WHEN they’re healthy. Some of the Tier Two tight ends have solid potential to be consistent and have certainly proved it in the past, but after those players, it gets dicey! You need to get one of the Top 10 tight ends below. Trust me on this one!

Let’s look at those tight ends ranked in their projected Tier for 2017 and show you their 2016 total points and consistency and where they ranked in those categories in 2016.

So, let’s start with the top tier of tight ends.

TIER ONE

Player Name

Total Points

Pts Rank

Total CG

Total GP

CR %

2016 Rank

2017 Tier

2017 Rank

Rob Gronkowski

97.00

26

4

7

57%

11

TE1A

1

Travis Kelce

221.50

1

10

16

63%

3

TE1A

2

Greg Olsen

205.30

3

10

16

63%

4

TE1A

3

Jordan Reed

170.60

9

9

12

75%

2

TE1A

4

It appears that for the first time in years, Rob Gronkowski’s ADP is NOT in the first round! Currently, it’s hovering around pick 20. I still believe that’s way too soon, but it’s more reasonable now. This Tier of TE1A represents those tight ends that I believe will earn an Expected Clutch Rate (ECR) of 70%+. Gronkowski has certainly earned over that many times in his career when healthy as have Kelce, Olsen, and Reed. Reed can be a beast in a PPR format IF he can stay on the field. Regardless, all four of these tight ends are safe, consistent picks when healthy.

TIER TWO

Player Name

Total Points

Pts Rank

Total CG

Total GP

CR %

2016 Rank

2017 Tier

2017 Rank

Jimmy Graham

191.70

4

10

16

63%

5

TE1B

5

Kyle Rudolph

209.00

2

12

16

75%

1

TE1B

6

Tyler Eifert

98.40

25

5

8

63%

6

TE1B

7

Delanie Walker

187.00

5

9

15

60%

7

TE1B

8

Julius Thomas

82.90

32

5

9

56%

12

TE1B

9

Martellus Bennett

167.20

10

8

16

50%

14

TE1B

10

Zach Ertz

183.60

6

8

14

57%

9

TE1B

11

Jack Doyle

147.40

13

7

16

44%

21

TE1B

12

This Tier represents an ECR of 57-69%. I realize that is a big range, but for tight ends, that’s about where the second tier usually falls out. You can see above that most of the tight ends were in that range in 2016. Kyle Rudolph was the #1 most consistent tight end in 2016 and with Sam Bradford still there as his quarterback, there’s no reason to believe he can’t put up a 65% ECR in 2017. I am not sure, he’ll hit the 75% like he did last season, but with Rudolph’s current ADP of TE9/pick 90, he’s certainly great value this year.

Julius Thomas is currently greatly undervalued as his current ADP is TE18/pick 160. Let us not forget that Thomas’ best seasons were in Denver when Adam Gase was his OC. Now, Gase, is his HC and Gase went after Thomas in the offseason to bring him to Miami. I see no reason Thomas can’t hit a 60% ECR in 2017 in that offense.

TIER THREE

Player Name

Total Points

Pts Rank

Total CG

Total GP

CR %

2016 Rank

2017 Tier

2017 Rank

Hunter Henry

135.20

17

7

14

50%

15

TE2A

13

Eric Ebron

138.10

14

7

13

54%

13

TE2A

14

Yes, I realize there are only two players here, but that’s because the remaining tight ends are either rookies or risky veterans. We are looking at backup tight ends at this point anyway. Hunter Henry will be a very good tight end someday. However, I’m not ready to move him into the Top 10 this year as long as Antonio Gates is still playing in San Diego, Los Angeles, for the Chargers. Let someone else take that leap of faith. Eric Ebron is supposed to “break out” every year and every year, he doesn’t. Health and consistency are two of Ebron’s weaknesses. Stay away from both of them by not drafting Ebron.

Well, there are your Expected Clutch Rankings for 2017 with some consistency rankings for the tight ends in 2016 to support it. If you didn’t make the playoffs and you had Coby Fleener or Jason Witten on your team and can’t understand why, I hope this helped clear things up.

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