Piper Jaffray: 30M iPhones Sold During Holiday Qtr

Piper Jaffray’s Gene Munster has weighed in on Apple’s Q1 FY12 results, that is the holiday quarter of calendar 2011. His estimate is that Apple may have sold 30 million iPhones, more than previous expectations. But there is a much bigger story.

Mr. Munster went on to tell investors about the larger implications. “If Apple sells 30 million plus iPhones in Dec, with no new form factor, up from 17.1 million in [quarter ending] Sep, it would be evidence supporting our survey work indicating that 94 percent of iPhone users plan to upgrade to a new iPhone. This theme suggests iPhone 5, which we are expecting in Aug, with a new form factor will be a monster upgrade.” The iPhone now accounts for 48 percent of Apple revenue.

The estimate for the iPad sales is 13.5 million units, slightly above Street estimates. Sales would be up 68 percent year over year at this rate. The iPad 3 is expected in April. The iPad accounts for 21 percent of Apple’s revenue.

Macintosh sales, 17 percent of revenue, are projected to be about 4.8 million units, but could be slightly more based on the latest sales data from late December.

Mr. Munster continued to project an Apple Television to be launched in late 2012.

In his note to investors, obtained by TMO , Mr Munster wrote: “Margin upside driven by an unchanged iPhone 4S form-factor could lead results to come in ahead of the Street [which is] at $9.88 [EPS] on US$38.361B (we are now at $10.50 on $40.19B).

The projection for the March quarter revenue is $30.9B, and the estimate for FY12 total revenue is US140B.

Mr. Munster’s target share price is now at $607 with a FY2012 EPS of $35.09.

Apple stock [AAPL] closed today at $422.55, down 69 cents.

Apple will announce its December quarter sales on January 24, 2012, at 5 PM Eastern time. TMO will provide live coverage.