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TVO Market Barometer 6/24/16

On Friday the market plummeted after a triumphant rise, and even though we all heard the boy who cried “brexit” many times over, many folks just didn’t seem to take heed. With a +116% increase in overall volume, though, it seems the message is now loud and clear. Just how significant is that kind of volume boost? Here’s a list of every session (according to TVO) over the last 10 years where volume rose more than 100% in a single session.

Over 100% volume rise:

11/30/2015

183%

10/15/2014

123%

6/4/2012

152%

11/28/2011

131%

11/10/2011

694%

11/2/2011

127%

10/19/2011

455%

10/7/2011

328%

10/3/2011

158%

9/22/2011

227%

9/12/2011

535%

8/22/2011

192%

8/9/2011

196%

8/3/2011

269%

5/31/2011

266%

11/29/2010

144%

12/28/2009

108%

11/30/2009

106%

8/21/2008

137%

5/30/2008

113%

5/27/2008

110%

5/16/2008

113%

5/13/2008

145%

11/27/2006

197%

5/24/2006

109%

9/16/2005

158%

After the last occurence on 11/30/15, the market promptly sold off in a big way until February of this year. The time before that was the now famous “V” bottom (when TVO first came on the scene) that started a multi-month rally which led to a SPY all-time high. If you’re game to do a further in-depth study, you’ll soon find there are just about as many similarities as differences among the events (both technically and fundamentally), making a quantitative study quite the challenge. Without even getting into that, one thing is fairly certain to be seen… a big move is in the works. As far as direction, only time (and volume) will tell. -MD

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