Headlines

Dylan Matthews

How redistricting could keep the House red for a decade

Before the election, I highlighted a report arguing that Republican control of state legislatures would end up earning them about 11 seats because of redistricting. The fact that the House total barely budged in a very good year for Democrats nationally — and in which House Democrats won the popular vote — suggests that this probably played a role.

This is especially clear if you take a look at the share of House seats won by Democrats in states where Republican-controlled legislatures redistricted in 2011 and 2012, and compare that to the share of the vote President Obama won. …

This isn’t as true for Democratic-controlled redistricting, and not just because Democrats ran redistricting in only six states. Democrats are just worse at gerrymandering when they get the chance. While Democrats outperformed their presidential vote in House races in Rhode Island, Maryland, Massachusetts and Illinois, they underperformed in Arkansas and West Virginia.

Blowback

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Yeah, that seems about obvious at this point. The exit polling showed the breakdown in House votes almost identical to the presidential race – 50% voted for the democrats and 48% voted for republicans, and yet the GOP maintains a sizable majority.

So the GOP only controls the House because of cheating? Hope you’re proud.

libfreeordie on November 9, 2012 at 7:45 AM

By ‘cheating,’ of course, you mean ‘operating completely within the bounds of the Constitution.’ At least according to Democrats.

I’ll direct you to Article 1, Section 4, which states that the times, places and manner of holding elections for senators and representatives shall be prescribed in each state by the legislature thereof. So it was the states that were given the authority to decide how those representatives would be elected.