Poll Shows Allen Ahead Of Robb In Crucial Hampton Roads

RICHMOND — Hampton Roads will be a key battleground in the race between George Allen and Charles Robb for the U.S. Senate, a new statewide poll shows.

And right now, Allen is winning it - as well as the rest of the state.

If the election were held today, Allen would win 49 percent of the vote and Robb would win 39 percent, according to Mason-Dixon Polling and Research Inc. Another 12 percent remain undecided. Allen was Virginia's governor from 1994 to 1998. Robb, also a former governor, is the incumbent senator.

Allen is leading in all regions of the state, but the race is closest in Hampton Roads, where he is ahead 46 to 44 percent, and in Northern Virginia, where he leads 44 to 41 percent. The poll shows Allen doing well across the state among whites and among men, and splitting the difference with women voters. Robb has a big lead with African-Americans.

The telephone survey of 620 registered voters, conducted last week for the Daily Press and other media, has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.

The numbers offer a stark contrast to two previous polls - one in December 1999 and one in May - which showed the two men running neck-and-neck. Virginia Commonwealth University conducted the May poll. The one in December came from the Richmond Times-Dispatch.

Allen, on the campaign trail at the Virginia Cantaloupe Festival in Halifax County, took heart from the numbers.

"My opponent's record is more consistent with the people of Vermont than the people of Virginia," he said. "People are seeing those differences."

Robb spokesman Mo Elleithee saw it as an aberration.

"This poll is the only one that doesn't show that this race is in a dead heat," he said. "This race is going to be close to the end."

Behind the numbers:

* While the race is close in Hampton Roads and Northern Virginia, it is no contest in the Shenandoah/Piedmont region, where Allen leads 56 to 35 percent, and in the Richmond metro area, where he leads 52 to 37 percent. Both areas include parts of Allen's old congressional district.

J. Bradford Coker, managing director of Mason- Dixon, said Hampton Roads and Northern Virginia have more transient residents - people who are new to the state and may not know either candidate. And Hampton Roads has a significant African-American base. Coker said Robb must win Hampton Roads and Northern Virginia to keep his seat.

* The two candidates are running even among women, 43 to 43 percent, but Allen holds an impressive 20-point advantage among men, 55 to 35 percent.

* Robb holds a wide 76 to 9 percent lead among African-American voters statewide, but Allen more than offsets this with a 57 to 32 percent lead among whites.

The surprise behind the numbers is that Robb is not doing better among women, said Robert Holsworth, a political scientist who heads VCU's Center for Public Policy.

And because Robb traditionally does well with independents, it suggests Allen is stealing some of those votes as well.

If Allen is truly scoring well among women and independents, "he'll win the election, no doubt about that," Holsworth said.

Having said that, he cautioned it's way too early to be calling the race.

Political analyst Larry Sabato of the University of Virginia said he doubts Allen is as far ahead as the poll suggests, although he said Mason-Dixon polls have an excellent record.

The numbers should tell Robb he must do better with white voters and with women.

If there is any negative for Allen in this poll, it could be that the news is too good.

"He's always had to worry about overconfidence," said Sabato. "This kind of poll can really be a drug for his partisans and activists, and that can be deadly."

Allen spokesman Tim Murtaugh said overconfidence will not be a problem.

"Polls will show us ahead. Polls will show us behind," he said. "We expect this race to eventually be close."

Staff writer David Lerman contributed to this story.

Hugh Lessig can be reached at 804-644-7123 or by e-mail at hlessig@dailypress.com.