Lebanese Government Falls, Consultations to Select New PM Begin Monday

I’ll have a fuller discussion of the political situation at Foreign Policy‘s Mideast channel later today. In the meantime, here are some brief updates and links to good pieces of commentary and analysis.

President Michel Suleiman has said that he will begin consultations to select a new Prime Minister on Monday. Hizbullah MP Mohammed Raad has already thrown down the gauntlet, as it were, by saying that Hizbullah will be pushing for a premier with a pro-resistance record (figures such as Salim al-Hoss and Omar Karami come to mind, although it is unlikely that they would cross Hariri in this instance.) Have a look here at the Orange Room’s amusing discussion of potential March 8 prime ministers.

The consultations will obviously be complicated by the issue of where Jumblatt decides to hang his hat. Because of Jumblatt’s defection from March 14th, Hariri only has 60 MPs in Parliament, which falls short of a 65-vote majority. This does not mean that Jumblatt will line up with the opposition, but he may elect to play some kind of a mediating role: supporting Hariri while going along with some of the opposition’s conditions.

Here are some links to further reading material (these will be updated throughout the day):

Like this:

Related

Discussion

70 thoughts on “Lebanese Government Falls, Consultations to Select New PM Begin Monday”

Speaking of the Orange room, funny thing just happened. They had a poll to vote for favorite next PM, with a link on the main news tracker on Tayyar.org. I clicked on it and to my surprise Hariri was leading Layla Solh by far. He had around 50% and Solh around 35%.

I checked the link 2 hours later and now the results are different!! Admnistrator closed the poll and changed the numbers to have Solh at number one claiming “people were cheating”.

Just posted this on the last post but it would be more appropriate here.

Well it would be interesting to analyze what HA and Hariri want in order to predict what will happen next.

Hariri wants the STL to procede all the way until at least the verdict stage, and wants nothing internally in Lebanon to stifle that, and in addition he want NO civil strife. However, he and HA know that any actions in Lebanon will have a very minimal effect on stifling the actual work of the STL.

As for HA, they want, in order of importance, Hariri to disavow the STL and they want the government to take any and all actions that will not only cast doubt on the STL’s findings but also any action that will stifle and paralyze the STL.

So, Harir will not disavow the STL, and he will be happy to sit on the sidelines and not be the next PM. However, he will want M14 to participate in the government and act as a counter force to any efforts by HA that will stifle the STL. I think the only concession HA gave Hariri in the S-S deal was to keep him a s PM. He, rightfully so, gave them the proverbial middle finger and told them No Deal. So in that light, he expects, and cares less, for not being the next PM.

HA probably wants to be in the government to do whatever little it can do now to stifle the STL and, more importantly, gain some legitimacy as part of the Lebanese governments when the indictments are handed down.

So the only way out is a government headed by Mikati with the approval of Hariri and with equal representation by M8 and M14. Jumblatt will make sure that this is what happens as a hedge and a compromise amongst M8 and M14.

QN, could you give us a tally as to how many members of parliament each party has. I don’t think that M8 has the majority now, assuming Jumblatt is with M8 because Jumblatt has power only on 3 or 4 of the parliamentarians in his 10 member bloc.

Thanassis Cambanis who? The one who does not speak Arabic and who spent a few months in Lebanon and came up with an ignorant book (he exhibits more ignorance in the NY Times article) on Hizbullah and Muslim Shiites with a racist cover on its front-page?

Nr’s usual bravado not withstanding, I do believe that Mr. Cambanis has a very clear crystal ball that is not limited only to the present but that does see into the foreseeable future , as a good crystal ball must. Lebanon has witnessed the climax of HA power and hegemony. This does not mean that it will be a precipitous drop but a diminution it will be.

Mikati made it clear he is not in the game. Omar and Hoss dare not take up the challenge. QN forgot to mention another name, abd rahim Mrad, that the HA camp is floating – a Syrian dream that will come true when hell freezes

Speaking of crystal balls, mine is telling me next PM is either Hariri or Seniora.

I concur. However, the reason is because HA has seen its halo or whatever the divine equivalent is in Shiite sect blown off its head after May 2008. HA is bullying its way to get what it wants. There’s nothing democratic in the way Lebanon has been governed or controlled in the past years.
HA is at crossroads. They cannot hide behind their divinity of a resistance movement. They are being morphed into a new existence. An organized and quasi legal terrorist entity. There is no other way to describe them; as the way they have behaved and threatened everyone with barbarism of cutting tongues and limbs of their dissenters!

Again; my conviction is that no other Sunni person has a chance of being nominated for the post of PM. This stalemate will last at least till the next elections or another HA staged coup of some sort!

QN; again please understand that WJ does NOT control the “gathering”‘s decisions when it comes to this issue. Only PSP MPs will follow him…and if i am not wrong they are only six (even then Hamadeh will go M14)…

If the MPs don’t stick with Jumblatt, they will be compromising their political careers. But let’s say you’re right and Hariri manages to hold on to a majority in Parliament. What then? He gets re-nominated as PM through a brute force vote. Then he has to form a government, which Hizbullah and AMAL will refuse to join, which takes us back to 2006.

As for those MP’s, they will actually be compromising their political career if they STICK with Jumblatt if he chooses to oppose Hariri. They know well enough they are voted in with Hariri constituents. Check demographics.

QN,
Do you think that the Wikileaks information is paying a roll in this? i haven’t been following, but i would guess that the two things at play are the tribunal and the wikileaks info. and hizbullah sees this as an opportunity to address both.

Where does Syria stand in all of this. Were they behind the M8 walkout or they simply lost any leverage over HA? Syria’s forte is double talk irrespective of what’s they’ve been feeding the Saudis or the French.

You are posing a question if Amal & HA refuse to join? Here’s one for you: What if FM refuses to join any government led by a “sunni” “puppet” who does not represent that sect? You seem to be answering your question (it works both ways)!
As for Hariri; once nominated he will endlessly say he is trying to form a new government based on national coexistence (blah blah)…while he acts as a caretaker…

Now as for WJ; I think he has lost faith with a lot of the Druse. He will NOT try to antagonise the types of Hamadeh as in “election” time WJ might end up being the loser (of MPs at least)!

This is an excellent analysis by Rajeh Al-Khouri. He considers almost all the scenarios as well as the events that led to the current situation. He presents it in concise point by point form. Please notice his seventh point in which he clearly shows that M8 reneged on its word it made in Doha,

We do not really have politicians who can deliver on their own promises. So, why do we have to listen to Aoun, Bassil, Raad and others blaming outsiders?

A question to Prophett,

From the above article, it is clear M8 reneged on its word. So your whole theory about Suleiman not being able to play neutral falls to pieces. Let me also put things in perspective. M8 DEMANDED a meeting of the government from Suleiman or else. According to the constitution only the PM has the authority to call such meetings. In effect, M8 not only reneged on its word in Doha but also challenged the prerogatives of the PM. And FYI, Suleiman did relay that request to Hariri and the answer was that has to wait until he’s back in Beirut.

So M8 did not respect its own word and it did not respect the constitution. It looks like they would have to answer to quite few charges when the blame game is played.

Another quetsion also to Prophett: Why should anyone believe HNA or any other member of M8 from now on? HNA reneged in 2006, in 2008, on the STL, and on Doha.

QN #12 says “But let’s say you’re right and Hariri manages to hold on to a majority in Parliament. What then? He gets re-nominated as PM through a brute force vote. Then he has to form a government, which Hizbullah and AMAL will refuse to join, which takes us back to 2006.”

DING DING DING! We have a winner.
This is precisely what I am predicting. 2006-2008 all over again until the next “Doha”.

I don’t quite think that exactly accurate really, Gabriel.
“Trying to figure out who would butter your bread” implies a degree of cynicism and a bit of playing both sides against the middle.
I think the Christian community in Lebanon has been (and still is) far too wrapped up in their delusions of grandeur and past glories. I think it’s a community who is now utterly reactive, rather than proactive or “playing” anyone. It’s a community who’s every action is guided by fear and paranoia. Look no further at how easy it was to convince so many Christians that the real danger is now the Sunnis (as opposed to pre 1990s fears of Palestinians and Shia). Look no further than the extremely short-sighted Boutros Harb apartheid proposal. And so on.
It’s a community adrift, with practically no will of its own, buffeted back and forth between much bigger forces than it can control or guide and reacting out of fear and close-mindedness to every damn little thing.

I didn’t think the title selected by the editors fit the oped I wrote. Hezbollah is acting in a shrewd and Machiavellian manner to protect its interests and positions — and in no way like it’s willing to blow itself up. They might have made a more fitting wordplay on the idea of “holding the government hostage.”

anon #22,
Would you rather have March 8 abide by the unconstitutional Doha agreement in order to preserve an ineffective cabinet? I , for one, never had any use or respect for Doha. No self respecting democracy would take away from its cabinet members the right to resign, that would be similar to all these labour unions that give up their right to strike. It is simply undemocratic and unconstitutional. If the result of this crisis is a one colour government then that by itself, irrespective of which group prevails, is a step in the right direction. If , on the other hand, we are to end up with an equally unworkable solution then that would be folly. Old wine in new glasses anyone?

Anon,22
I was put out a possible scenario, not defending or blaming anyone.
As far as who to blame for the current situation, it’s everyone. I’m not getting into that now though. So if you’re looking for a showdown with me, I hate to disappoint you, you‘re not getting one.lol
The article by Rajeh Al-Khouri confirms the points I made in my scenario; Where the calculated move by M8 to bring down the cabinet was designed to leave the country in a political vacuum
,Where Hariri can’t form a government, no other Sunni leader can, and No M8
government to take the heat either.
So you are dealing with a situation where Lebanon has no government to answer to the UN or the STL. Again, this is not what I’m advocating at all, it is simply my reading of what will happen.
WHEN I said that SHN Will speak, in the coming days, I was not suggesting that you believe or not believe what He says. I imply said that,because when He speak, He most likely will talk about specific steps that HA and M8 will take. Basically it will be news. People have the right to evaluate what he says as they wish.

I do not think Rajeh was defending Doha, neither was I in favour of that arrangement. The point that he made which I highlighted is the fact that we have a group incapable of keeping its promises while blaming that failure on outsiders. Your argument that the right to resign should not be taken away is well taken. But that is not the only promise that M8 reneged on. They used every opportunity to make the cabinet dysfunctional unless their demands are met, even in contradiction with the constitution itself. They could have resigned long ago and at least kept their word on that promise without attempts at obstruction.

Prophett 31,

I am not seeking a showdown with you. Do you see, however, that your accusations of Suleiman have no basis? Also, if HNA speaks in the next couple days and accuses Suleiman as you did would you stamp with all ten fingures to HNA or would you question him?

anon,
I never accused President Suleiman of any thing. Please, show me where I DID?
I was simply assessing the situation,and where I thought He stood…
Sorry if my assessment of president Suleiman didn’t please you.
I won’t stamp to any one; I do question anyone who publicly makes a statement.No one is immune to my criticism.
You made think now, maybe SHN is reading my posts, and claiming my thoughts,and then throwing his own accusations.lol
Get real anon.

this may be completely insane, but is there any way the ‘pre-STL findings’ opposition withdrawal is the deal between Hariri and Hizballah?

Works for both sides. There’s no government in place to embrace the findings, which suits Hizb. And, Hariri saves face because he isn’t in a position where he’s forced to disavow the findings as PM, because his government has collapsed.

Then, a couple months after the findings are released a deal is struck, and roughly the same government comes back. The new Hariri government doesn’t pursue the STL indictments as part of the deal for the government, so Hizb wins. But, it’s still a face saver for Hariri…?

“I don’t doubt that how either side is acting is precisely on account of what they perceive to be “best for the community”.

Please tell me that you were being sarcastic:-) None of these power hungry selfish individuals knows the term community or what it means. Communal good often rests on personal sacrifice and resiprocity two alien concepts to megalomaniac political feudal lords with a tremendous sense of entitlement. I have been saying this ad nauseum and I will say it again; No meaningful change will take place, in Lebanon, based on development from within the current system. None. Salvation rests in transcending both and acting as if community matters.

Ghassan,#30
Unfortunately, we will end up with another worked out arrangement named after some city. But this time, it will take longer to get there, and the damage might be greater than anyone can anticipate.

Anon,
First, I do think that He is a good human being.
He really had no stand. He tried to play both sides of the fence. The poor guy had no authority to do anything. I doubt He has any vision for the country either.
They simply brought him is, as ‘independent, unifier, and peace maker”. He could not be any of those.
He never accomplished anything, except meeting dignitaries, and ex officials.
I’m sure you remember when He invited the world’s richest man, Mexico’s Carlos Slim; The guy left without paying his hotel bill. Poor president Suleiman was so embarrassed, The presidential palace had to pay those bills.

I think we should call him the lost president. Now you should know why I think that He won’t finish his term.

You are so right Gabie. Christan community has always had different views,and political stands. It’s a blessing, I think.
But Patriarch Sfeir isn’t pleased with this though; HE sees it as division among the community.
One question;Are you not talking to me because I named you Mutanabbi?lol

On a more serious note, I’m not following up on the news, and I find everyone here so much more versed as to the happenings. QN has become my news source. Especially with all those links to articles contained in one place.

But I don’t know most of those politicians most of you keep referring to, so I’d rather sit back and read.

QN is a good forum to be part of…
I follow many other sites for daily news and analysis. Sooner or later, you will know who those leaders are, but I doubt you would want to meet most of them.
Now you know why I called you a Wannabe Nabi, instead of Nabi .LOL
COULD NOT RESIST,LOL JK

Translation: Jumblatt’s exact words , during a dinner, were ” In the final analysis …I will do whatever is asked of me” ( by the Syrians.

In ant country the above statement would have resulted in efforts to recall the politician in question, to denounce him and to demand his/her resignation. But not in Lebanon. No one has made an issue out of this simply because it has become the normal state of affairs. Foreign governments own themost the the Lebanese media, foreign governments own most of the Lebanese politicians and foreign governments have the final say about whapolicy in Lebanon. Until and unless we the ordinary Lebanese citizens show outrage and disgust about such behaviour the charade goes on.

Cabriel #42,
I think that is very healthy. But yet the Christians are just as sectarian as anybody else in Lebanon. What we need , and I do not want to sound as if I am lecturing again :-), is to self identify as Lebanese who happen to practice this religion or the other. Once we do that then we will be driven by what is good for the community and not a sub group within it. The last thing that I want to see when I look into the mirror is the image of a Sunni, A Maronite< a Druz… I see a human being whio is a fathger, a professor, a husband, a jogger, an environmentalist…

Lebanese could stand to learn a thing or two from the Tunisian. Despite 23 years of “no freedom” and tight controls (and much longer if one takes into account the Burquiba years), they have found their voice and have decided to rise up against corruption and autocracy, something we, in Lebanon have never figured out how to do (or rather, have never been willing to do).

Prophett, As I might have said before I am rooting for the Tunisian opposition not only because I feel that they ought to make major advances but because if they succedd then that might be the spark to blow up the whole powder ofkeg of the Middle east. Tunisia could easily travel to Libya and Egypt and then hopefully the gulf states Syria Jordan and LebanonSo far I have been saying it without deep conviction but wouldn’t it be great if 2011 turns out to be the annus mirabulus of the Arab world. God, wherever she is, knows that we deserve better than what we have.

Thanks Ghassan for the link. I think that may deserve an impeachment. But seriously, Jumblatt is writing his own death sentence if Syria decides to do as Wahhab (the ex-minister dining with Jumblatt) wishes him to do and force it up Jumblatt’s throat. If QN’s count of 60 MP’s are Hariri bloc, which seems to be a consensus, then we can say at least 4 more from the gathering bloc of Jumblatt are definitely M14 and will disobey their leader.

AIG’s analysis of Lebanon from an Israeli point of view is the closest thing to Israeli academia. You can tell he has a keen understanding of the personalities, the sects, and the political dynamics.

I would take his POV over any Tel-Aviv professor; handsdown.

My vantage point is that of an pro-Israel, American Jew with just a basic understanding.

My simplistic view is that HA is indicative of the growing Islamization of the ME, and another in a long series of ME states is falling like a domino. Another victory for Iran.

And who will pay? The usual people: Arabs and muslims. The cheerleaders are mostly those that don’t live under the thumb of these thugs.

Unfortunately for those that will suffer under these governments, the world powers will not intervene. Certainly not Obama.
HA will grab more power within Lebanon, but they won’t free the Palestinians.