Tropical Storm FRANKLIN

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TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 26
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT WED JUL 27 2005
DEEP CONVECTION...WITH TOPS COLDER THAN -80C...HAVE DEVELOPED UP THE
WEST SIDE OF AND VERY NEAR THE NOW PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL
CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WAS INCREASED TO 45 KT BASED ON A
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T3.0/45 KT FROM TAFB AT 18Z.
HOWEVER...SINCE THAT TIME...OBJECTIVE DVORAK T-NUMBERS HAVE BEEN
RUNNING CLOSE TO T3.3/51 KT. THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS SLOWLY
IMPROVING IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE...BUT IS RESTRICTED ELSEWHERE.
THROUGH 18Z...FRANKLIN HAD BEEN MOVING AT 340/05...BUT OVER THE LAST
COUPLE OF HOURS THE MOTION APPEARS TO BE 360/06...AND THAT IS WHAT
WAS USED FOR THIS ADVISORY. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK OR REASONING. FRANKLIN SHOULD MOVE
NORTHWARD FOR THE NEXT 6-12 HOURS BEFORE TURNING NORTHEASTWARD BY
24 HOURS AS A SHARP MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
FRONTAL SYSTEM REACH THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. COAST BY 48 HOURS. THE
DEEP-LAYER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD GRADUALLY
ACCELERATE FRANKLIN TO THE NORTHEAST OVER COLDER WATER WHERE THE
CYCLONE WILL WEAKEN AND EVENTUALLY BECOME ABSORBED BY THE FRONTAL
SYSTEM. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY AND IS CLOSE TO THE NHC MODEL CONSENSUS NOW THAT THE UKMET
HAS COME BACK INTO THE FOLD.
THE UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR VECTOR HAS BEEN GRADUALLY VEERING FROM
NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST TODAY...AND MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT VEERING OF THE SHEAR VECTOR WILL CONTINUE FOR
ANOTHER 24 HOURS OR SO. THIS PATTERN...COUPLED WITH DECREASING WIND
SHEAR VALUES AS LOW AS 5 KT...SHOULD RESULT INC CONVECTION
GRADUALLY DEVELOPING OVER THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
FOR AT LEAST SOME MODEST INTENSIFICATION...AND PERHAPS EVEN ALLOW
FRANKLIN TO BRIEFLY REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH BY ABOUT 24 HOURS.
AFTER THAT...FRANKLIN IS EXPECTED TO REACH MUCH COLDER SSTS BY 48
HOURS...WHICH SHOULD HELP TO BRING ABOUT RAPID WEAKENING. THE
OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE SHIPS MODEL
AND MUCH HIGHER...MORE THAN 25 KT...THAN THE GFDL MODEL.
FORECASTER STEWART
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 27/2100Z 33.9N 69.3W 45 KT
12HR VT 28/0600Z 35.2N 68.6W 50 KT
24HR VT 28/1800Z 37.0N 67.1W 55 KT
36HR VT 29/0600Z 38.8N 64.8W 45 KT
48HR VT 29/1800Z 40.9N 61.5W 35 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 30/1800Z 45.0N 53.0W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 31/1800Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL SYSTEM
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