Our Man in Iowa: A Scramble to Turn Out Voters After the Debate

DES MOINES — Good morning from Iowa, where the day after the Republican debate candidates are flooding the state, with nine Republicans and three Democrats holding 41 public events. You can tell a lot about their last-minute strategies by looking at where they are going.

Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders are shadowing each other in the Mississippi River cities that are vote-rich Democratic strongholds. But Marco Rubio is making some of the same stops (Burlington, Muscatine, Dubuque) to pick up support from independents and moderate Republicans. Ted Cruz is visiting rural towns in the state’s conservative northwest.

The visits are calibrated to bolster a candidate’s support in strategically important regions, and at this point the conversation among insiders has turned almost obsessively to turnout.

Big Turnout Could Aid Trump and Sanders

The widely shared view is that a large number of caucus participants favors Donald J. Trump and Mr. Sanders, because both appeal to Iowans who are not conventional caucusgoers.

But what is a large turnout, and will it happen? The topic is shrouded in mystery to those of us who do not have access to the campaigns’ detailed voter data. On Thursday, Iowa’s secretary of state released figures for new voter registrations in January, reporting an increase of 2,100 Democrats and 2,954 Republicans.

The numbers do not sound like a coming wave. But keep in mind that Iowa already has one of the highest levels of voter registration in the land, with 68 percent of eligible voters enrolled. Campaigns are now scrambling to get supporters to show up, and they are no longer focused on registering newbies (who can sign up at their caucus sites).

Anecdotally, I have met many people at Trump and Sanders rallies who have never caucused before and are enthusiastic about turning out. For a better view, I reached out to operatives in both parties. Kevin Geiken, a former deputy director of the Iowa Democratic Party, estimated a Democratic turnout of around 120,000. That suggests a good night for Mrs. Clinton, because the figure is close to the 2004 participation and far below the record-shattering 2008 turnout of 240,000, when Barack Obama swamped her.

A former top Republican state official told me that a turnout around 130,000 would reflect a traditional caucus electorate, good news for Mr. Cruz. “The closer we get to 140,000, the more I think Cruz doesn’t have the ability to grow his vote,” the insider said. “Once we got to 150,000 or higher, it’s an awfully good night for Donald Trump.”

Gearing Up for Higher Turnout

Charlie Szold, a spokesman for the state Republican Party, had this to say: “Predicting caucus turnout is very, very difficult. We are prepared for substantially higher turnout and have worked with county chairs to make sure we have venues with additional capacity. That does not mean we expect more people, just that we want to be prepared.”

And then there is the weather. A major winter storm is forecast for late Monday and could keep many voters home, depending on when the flakes start falling (caucuses begin at 7 p.m.).

“We’re represented by Congressman Steve King,” Cody Hoefert, the co-chairman of the state Republican Party, who lives in the Fourth District in the northwest, told me. Mr. King endorsed Mr. Cruz.

Finally, there is this, just an anecdote, nothing more, but still: Jamie Johnson, a former chairman of the Webster County Republican Party, told of receiving a call from an elderly Fort Dodge shut-in who was prone to anxiety attacks in crowds. She asked how to register so she could caucus for Mr. Trump. “I asked, Aren’t you concerned you’ll have another anxiety attack?” Mr. Johnson said. “She said, ‘It’s worth it to vote for Donald Trump.’ ”

Trip Gabriel, a 21-year veteran of The New York Times, has lived in Iowa for the past year, covering the state’s unique role in presidential politics. Mr. Gabriel, previously known for his invention of the Modern Love column at The Times, has been recognized for his expertise on Iowa’s intricate caucus system. He lives in Des Moines and has a regular seat at Eatery A, the pizza parlor that once served as campaign offices for Barack Obama, and later for Mitt Romney._____