Tuesday, October 20, 2009

It's a new day in Los Angeles, the sun is shining, the birds are singing. And even thought the bitterness of last night's defeat lingers in one's mouth like cigars after a long night of scotch-drinking, already the pain is beginning to subside. And in the spirit of the eternally optimistic Jon Weisman over at Dodger Thoughts, I still hold out hope that we can pull this NLCS off.

Crazy, I know. Last night was a gut-punch (or a face punch, depending on your perspective and if you have wallabies around), but no different from the way Phillies fans must have felt after we took Game 2 with the Andre Ethier bases-loaded walk. The thing about a seven-game series is, unlike the best-of-five League Divisional Series, the best team usually wins, and fluke victories tend to balance out.

So we trade off flukes with Philly, so what? Unlike Games 2 and 3, our offense showed some signs of life last night. Unlike Games 2 and 3, we broke through against the starting Phillies pitcher. Unlike I don't know how long, Manny Ramirez came up with a fine defensive play late in the game.

This can happen. This may be the Zoloft talking, but I believe it to be true. And here are five reasons off the top of my head why we can keep hope alive:

1. Teams can come back from 3-1 deficits; 12 teams have done it to date. Boston did it in the 2007 ALCS vs. Cleveland (winning Game 5 at Jacobs before coming back to romp two games at Fenway, en route to another World Series title); and of course they dug out of an even bigger hole against the Yankees in the 2004 ALCS. In the National League, the most recent was the 2003 Marlins, who came back from a 3-1 deficit against the Chicago Cubs. The full list (please check my work on this):

2. Three wins in a row, for this Dodger team, was a common trend this season.The Dodgers have had 25 three-game win streaks this season; 28 if you count the first three games of the postseason as well. If you count discrete streaks of three games or more, the Dodgers have 11 of those, 12 if you count the postseason.

3. Three losses in a row, for this Dodger team, is relatively uncommon. Remember, we didn't get our first three-game loss streak until our 100th game, at the end of July, holding out longer than any other major league team. Until then, we had resisted the consecutive loss trifecta--just as we can by winning Game 5.

4. We need to take this one game at a time, and on the mound for us tomorrow is Vicente Padilla, who has definitely had a hot hand of late for the Dodgers. Playing like a stud since the Dodgers picked him up off the scrap heap, Padilla has been 5-0 for Los Angeles, including a postseason victory against the Cardinals (on the road, to clinch the NLDS), and hasn't had a loss yet as a Dodger. Wednesday night won't break this pattern. Furthermore, Shane Victorino won't get a chance to choose which body part Padilla will be allowed to target. All we need is to win once with Padilla to get the series back to Los Angeles, where we are 50-31 with a .617 winning percentage; 53-32 / .624 if you count the playoffs.

5. Ticket to Game 6 are still available, and I want to go. And I don't have anything else to do Friday night. I just want to see another game at the Stadium, cheering on our Dodgers. And I don't think that's too much to ask of the baseball gods.

Erin and I had that exchange yesterday regarding her (2nd) beloved BoSox (out of respect for her, I will use the proper contraction). My mistake, other than saying the 2004 Sox were down 3-0 to the Spankees, was to evoke the spirit of that club before it was appropriate. Now that the Dodgers are down 3-1, the time is right.

Mrs. Dusty's refusal to be beaten down (I mean by the series, not spousally) is growing on me. My thinking goes like this:

While it is improbable that we could come back and win three straight games, and I don't expect us to, and won't have hopes built up for (but would love to be proven wrong)...I would like to see us smash them in the mouth tomorrow night and bring the series back to LA. It would be a big boost for our boys, mentally. Forget about the series; they need a win to show themselves that the ability to win at the highest level is within them. Make the Philberts have to pack they shit up and make another cross-country flight instead of celebrating at home. That will get them grouchy. And that's when we pounce. Then all of the sudden, the series is 3-2 and coming back home, where it belongs *throws LA sign*.

And I don't mind the prospect of seeing Phiwws celebrate on our turf, if that's what happens. It means we gutted it out and brought the series back. It would be a sign more of success than failure. A seven game series, like a soccer/football table, doesn't lie; in the end, if they take the series, then they deserve it and we clap them off and start marking our calendars for the day when pitchers and catchers report.

Paul,Luckily, they don't pronounce one team better than the other until they've won 4 times. ie, however unlikely it is, depending on how we play, the Phillies may not look like the better team when it's all said and done.

I do sort of feel like that was the nadir of the Post-season. If we lose tomorrow, we lose tomorrow, but it won't be the same kind of soul-sucking loss that yesterday was. Ain't nothin' left to do but win or go home, so we might as well win.

The loss was soul-sucking. I can still feel the frigid air as the Dementors swooped down on me while I was paralyzed with despair and sucked the very life and soul out of me as I watched Phil-mes celebrate on my television screen.

Your Reds are marching down the hill, indeed. Bet you can't wait for the big clash this weekend with ManUre. Please tell me it's not the 4:45AM match and that I have to wake up and get down to the pub that early for it.

"Please keep reading my blog!!! Don't leave until next spring!!!They still have a shot!!! Here's some irrelevant stats to support a conclusion that I know instinctively doesn't have a chance in hell of coming to fruition!!!"

If you've been following this team for any more than three seconds, you know exactly what's going to happen tomorrow. The offense will be silent, Padilla will be solved, the eviscerated and shell-shocked bullpen will continue to get their collective faces kicked in, and the Phillies fans will dance on their grave.

I would recommend you not to watch the game, but for some of you, it will be an education about what it means to be a Dodger fan. Learn this pain, and get used to it. You think you're used to it already? Think again. If you choose to watch, you obviously haven't suffered enough.

All the stats and regular-season accomplishments don't erase the fact that this Dodger team is human. And scared. Scared of the Phillies. Why? Who knows. Why did Broxton pitch around Stairs? Why do the Dodgers continue to give the Phillies too much respect? Was there any Dodger fan who DIDN'T see the ending to game 4 play out before it actually did? The Dodgers were waiting the entire game for the other shoe to drop, and when it finally did, they couldn't wait to get the hell off the field and get to the safety of the clubhouse. They're spooked, intimidated, SCARED. Tomorrow, there will be expressionless Dodger players, looking for all the world like they're marching to their execution. They will do everything they can to get it over with as quickly as possible.

I, along with many fans I know, am relieved that I will not need to watch that. If you choose to watch it, don't worry -- you'll pay for it. But keep reading the blog!!! Please???

I don't really know what motivates someone to login and write something like that, but it's certainly coming from someone who doesn't know what this blog means.

Sax is a Dodger fan. Period. Take note. Maybe you've never seen a real one before. He (and the other Sons) write the blog out of love for the Dodgers. They do not write the blog so that awesome guys like you can come by and claim that they write the blog to get you to keep reading. There is no part of this post that indicates in any way that Sax just wants you to keep reading. He doesn't need to promote himself. We'll all give him page hits all winter, whether winter starts tomorrow or someday in the future.

If he, or anyone else here, preaches hope, it is simply because we want to keep watching Dodger baseball. You don't want to? Fine, then don't. But some of us like to watch baseball. And some of us like to believe. And some of us aren't assholes.

Don't know your motivation there, buddy, but you are quite off base about Sax's post and about the man himself...and about the purpose and intent of this blog. I know we're all a little upset about how the season has turned out, but it's no reason to hate on each other, disrespect the blog, or to pile on the team you (I assume, but hard to tell from your comments) support.

I couldn't pick a single blog owner or poster out of a crowd* but I can say without doubt I'd take a bullet for 'em. That's what you get around here; that's the dynamic. So maybe there's nothing here for you, and you should keep steppin'.

I was pretty down after Monday's game, but I feel optimistic for some reason. I'm not usually optimistic. I usually assume the worst (case in point, I proclaimed the series over after Ruiz's homer in game 1).

I feel that even if the Dodgers don't win it, they are different than last year. They won 11 more games for a reason and it would be a shame to lose in the exact same way. I think that this team is going to get mad and put up a fight and make things tough on the Phils rather than roll over and play dead, much like they did last year.

Erin … I’ve been here before, several times. If you don’t recall those times, this is your problem, not mine. And I disagree with you about blog promotion … what’s with an interview at the top with some kid who doesn’t know a baseball from a powdered doughnut, calling himself the “don’t stop believing” guy? As for wanting to watch the game, well, that’s cool -- I hope you learned your lesson, though? You obviously didn’t suffer enough, and so you asked to suffer more. Don’t say you weren’t warned. And the true asshole is the one who resorts to name calling, is it not, Erin?

“Dusty Baker” … This is awesome that you have online friends. I do, too. This is not an issue, and there’s no hating going on at all. I’m not “disrespecting the blog”, the blog did that on its own with their silly irrelevant stats and interviews. Why not keep it real; tell it like it is? Other Dodger sites have. You obviously have been a Dodger fan long enough to remember Dusty playing here, right? I have, too. I’ve been a fan of this team for 30 years, and suffered with this team for the last 21. You and I both know what’s up with this team, don’t we? Did you really think the Dodgers would even win one more game after Monday night, much less three in a row? Usually I respect what is said here, but I also know bullshit when I see it, and I simply called it out. ‘Tis all. There’s no need for you to hate on ME, just address what I said in my earlier post and tell me where I’m wrong? Did Padilla get solved? Did the bullpen get hit hard? Did they roll over and look like a beaten team?

There is belief, which is great for fans … but there is a reality that the team doesn’t have belief in itself. The Dodgers are intimidated by the Phillies, and it affected every measure of their game. Broxton’s fear of Stairs on Monday is not unique to him at all, it is a reflection of his team; mostly its pitching staff that gave up 36 runs in 5 games. Sorry to point out the truth of the matter and say something most don’t want to hear, but it is what it is.