Crude oil and spreads beginning to normalise as US energy flows resume

Supply disruption from Kurdistan (550kbp) still a risk following independence vote

By Clemens Bomsdorf

The big topic today is the US tax plan presented by president Donald Trump. It affects all markets including forex, commodities, fixed income and equities. "Trump’s tax reform is very comprehensive,“ judges John J Hardy, head of FX strategy at Saxo Bank. He underlines the "very generous“ increase of deductibles for families and individuals as well as the 25% flax rate for business. Democrats will surely oppose this latter element as it is valid for small business with 100,000 USD income as well as for those with 100 million USD.

Trump's suggestions fuelled US stocks, notes Peter Garnry, Saxo's head of equity strategy. US small caps were up 2%. If it gets through, the "US tax plan would be a major boost for equities,“ says Garnry, who expects positive effects not only in the US, but also in Europe. Looking at sectors and individual stocks he points out the good performance of Micron and says he would be long in US stocks. Talking about stocks, Saxo Bank's Asia macro strategist Kay Van-Petersen points at ZhongAn, a major fintech, which just got listed in HongKong and is up 12% now.

Gold got headwind from Trump’s tax plan and more than half of the rally from July has been retraced, says Ole Hansen, Saxo's head of commodity strategy, adding that it might only need a couple of headlines to increase demand again. Platinum is reaching a record discount to gold while being topped by palladium for the first time in 16 years.

Yesterday’s inventory report showed the US energy market is returning to normal after the recent turmoils triggered by hurricanes. Crude oil and spreads beginning to normalise as US energy flows resume. US reports a record WTI export (+563kbd) bringing down the discount to Brent. Increased import of products (+861kbd) helps rebuild stocks and bring down refinery margins to pre-Harvey level. US production is close to record while Libya wants to add 350kbd before the end of the year. Supply disruption from Kurdistan (550kbp) is still a risk following the independence vote with 93% in favor. Turkey, Iraq and Iran, the surrounding neighbours, all strongly oppose the independence move.

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