Defence ministers from the Association of South-East Asian Nations (ASEAN) gathered in Singapore on October 18th‑20th for the 12th ASEAN Defence Ministers' Meeting (ADMM). The meeting, which was also attended by ASEAN's eight "Plus" partners—namely Australia, China, India, Japan, New Zealand, Russia, South Korea and the US—came amid a spike in tensions in contested areas of the South China Sea. The most important outcome was the adoption of a set of non-binding guidelines to manage unexpected encounters between military aircraft. Singapore's defence minister, Ng Eng Hen, called on ASEAN's international partners to adopt the measures to reduce the risk of mishaps.

ASEAN's adoption on October 19th of the non-binding Guidelines on Air Military Encounters, which follow similar guidelines already in place to prevent naval vessels from unintended mishaps, is aimed at de-escalating tensions during unplanned encounters between different countries' military aircraft. The guidelines set norms of behaviour for pilots, including always keeping their two-way communications open and adhering to existing aviation conventions.

The adoption of the guidelines comes amid another periodic spike in tensions in the South China Sea. China claims the majority of the energy-rich waterway, putting it into direct conflict with four ASEAN states—Vietnam, the Philippines, Malaysia and Brunei—and also indirectly with the US, traditionally the dominant naval power in the western Pacific. In particular, the run-up to the ADMM summit saw a rise in tensions between China and the US in the South China Sea, against the backdrop of the escalating trade war between the two nations and a ratcheting-up of anti-China rhetoric by the US administration led by Donald Trump.

US relations with China dominate

Since taking office, Mr Trump and his administration have taken a hawkish line on China, and increased the frequency of the US navy's freedom-of-navigation operations in the strategic waterway, drawing strong protests from China. In September a Chinese warship came within 42 metres of a US naval destroyer, USS Decatur, as it conducted a patrol in the South China Sea. At a lunch meeting with his ASEAN counterparts during the ADMM, the US secretary of defence, James Mattis, said that the US wanted a "constructive relationship" with China but remained concerned by its breakneck militarisation of islands and other features in the South China Sea.

A day after the adoption of the aviation guidelines by ASEAN, the eight "Plus" nations expressed their in-principle agreement to signing on, saying in a joint statement that they would explore the application of these guidelines, as they could enhance safety in the aviation sphere. In a similar vein, the ASEAN nations also agreed to push forward the "Our Eyes" intelligence-sharing initiative, initially established in Indonesia in January 2018, as a platform to exchange information on "terrorism, radicalism and violent extremism, and other non-traditional threats". They also agreed to set up a "virtual" network of chemical, biological and radiological defence experts to improve the response during a potential crisis.

In addition, the ADMM also saw sideline talks between Mr Mattis and his Chinese counterpart, Wei Fenghe. The meeting came after previous talks planned between the two were cancelled by China in September, apparently in retaliation for the US government imposing sanctions on a unit of China's military for buying Russian fighter jets and missiles. During the 90‑minute meeting, Mr Mattis reportedly attempted to soften the administration's strong rhetoric, and the two ministers agreed to talk through their military differences in order to avoid armed confrontations. Mr Mattis also reportedly extended an invitation for Mr Wei to visit Washington, DC.

Containing conflict potential

Given the number of countries involved, and the nature of their competing claims, there is a pressing need to prevent one of the periodic skirmish that takes place in the South China Sea from spiralling into a wider armed conflict. Coming in the aftermath of ASEAN and China's decision to adopt a negotiating framework for a broader Code of Conduct in the South China Sea, ASEAN's establishment of aviation guidelines is an important, albeit partial, step towards heading off unintended clashes, and thickening the layer of multilateral institutions and agreements to cushion the region against an outbreak of conflict.

Perhaps unavoidably, pledges of military co-operation and increased communication still leave unclear the underlying question of how maritime disputes might eventually be resolved. Given the incompatibility of Chinese and US interests in the region, in addition to the claims of the ASEAN states involved, this suggests that the best that can be achieved in the short term is for disputes to be managed, rather than concluded. Nonetheless, The Economist Intelligence Unit believes that although skirmishes will occur in the South China Sea during the forecast period (2019‑23), we do not expect these to break out into a military conflict. With Chinese-US relations deteriorating amid the bilateral trade war, we expect that China will be reluctant to antagonise countries in the region that could offer it some political and economic support.