In 2010, the global
activity of the heavy-duty road passenger transport sector amounts to 7.2
trillion revenue passenger kilometers. This is expected to rise to more than 18
trillion revenue passenger kilometers by 2050, an increase of 157 percent. The
increase is driven by a rise in world population and the drive to avoid slow
individual travel.

In 2010, the
heavy-duty road passenger transport sector emitted 356 Mt of CO2. In
2050, this is expected to decrease to 315 Mt, a decrease of 12 percent. With an
activity increase of 157 percent, a large reduction in emission intensity is
needed to achieve these emission reductions. The potential to bring down the
emission intensity of heavy-duty passenger vehicles is large. It can be done by
technological innovation incentivized by policies like fuel-economy standards
for heavy-duty vehicles, as well as by technological development (e. g. hybrid
drive-trains, increased aerodynamics, weight reduction, fuel cell vehicles,
biofuels, eco-driving, full electric battery vehicles, etc.), improved consumer
information schemes, fuel taxation, or implementation of bus rapid transit
(BRT) systems or other mass transit schemes.

As shown in
Figure I.9, the number of 2050 revenue passenger kilometers is expected to be
more than 2.5 times the 2010 revenue passenger kilometers. Despite this growth
in activity, the reduction potential could bring down the 2050 carbon intensity
by 65 percent compared with 2010.

Figure I.9 While revenue
passenger kilometers traveled in heavy-duty road passenger vehicles will more
than double, carbon intensity is targeted to decline by 65 percent