There's No Formula For Drafting Success

Fantastic Friday - NFL Draft

The Right Pick In The Nfl Draft Can Make A Franchise, And The Wrong Selection Can Break It.

April 18, 1997|By Mike Dame of The Sentinel Staff

When it comes to the NFL draft, beauty, as the saying goes, is in the eye of the beholder. Often it blossoms. Sometimes it keeps sleeping.

That's the unknown 30 teams grapple with today as they wrap up their draft preparations. One last mock draft is on many agendas. Others will readjust in light of the St. Louis Rams' trade Thursday for the New York Jets' No. 1 pick. All, however, approach the final hour with one thought:

Draft weekend holds the key to their franchise's future.

''It'll make you or break you in the long run,'' said Joel Buchsbaum of Pro Football Weekly, who has been analyzing drafts since 1971. ''You win or lose in this league because of the draft. Period.''

Consider:

- Dallas trades up to get Emmitt Smith with the 17th pick in 1990, the last of a string of drafts that brings them Troy Aikman, Michael Irvin and Daryl Johnston. The Cowboys win three Super Bowl rings.

- Seattle trades the No. 2 pick in 1977 to Dallas, which gets Tony Dorsett. The Seahawks don't post a winning season until 1983.

See what Buchsbaum means?

The draft game can get complicated, particularly when it comes to the first round. Jacksonville coach and general manager Tom Coughlin has studied past NFL drafts intensely, looking at trends, strategies, results - any element that could give him a blueprint as he builds the Jaguars.

Coughlin's discovery: That winning formula doesn't exist.

''It's not necessarily whether you draft for one side of the ball or the other,'' Coughlin said. ''It always ends up being the individual that gives you success. Last year, we drafted for defense early on, and we were fortunate in that those three players (linebacker Kevin Hardy, defensive end Tony Brackens and cornerback Aaron Beasley) made a huge impact on our team (the Jags made it to the AFC Championship Game). But I don't think that necessarily was (because of) the fact that we drafted for defensive players.''

In the first round of the past 10 drafts, the split between offensive and defense players was almost even - 150 to 133. Need is the overriding factor in draft choices.

The Rams traded up from the No. 6 position to address their most pressing need: offensive tackle. They are expected to take Orlando Pace, a 334-pounder from Ohio State considered the top prospect in the draft. The Jets have greater needs on defense. They could afford to trade down to No. 6, where a marquee defensive player still will be available.

It's hard to say if each made the right decision. After all, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers have been lauded for successful drafts in the past 10 years, getting the likes of Bo Jackson, Vinny Testaverde, Broderick Thomas and Charles McRae, all tabbed as future Pro Bowl stalwarts.

Lo, but Tampa Bay hasn't hit the .500 mark since 1982.

''It's not always bad drafts,'' Buchsbaum said of the Bucs' woes. ''It's because they had coaching staffs that wanted one thing. They draft that thing, and then they get a new coaching staff a year later that didn't want that thing. So they never worked to develop their players.''

In today's NFL, another option also exists: unrestricted free agency, which began in 1993. And many teams have used it to build winners.