AFC EAST

Published 4:00 am, Thursday, September 9, 2004

The Patriots, who have won two of the last three Super Bowls and finished last year with 15 consecutive victories, look even stronger. They have to fill a significant hole at nose tackle, but the running game appears improved with Corey Dillon, and cornerback Ty Law has mostly gotten over his anger about the team's refusal to re-negotiate his rich contract.

Their plan: New England is the NFL's pre-eminent organization. The Patriots have a gleaming new stadium, a top-notch coaching staff that stayed intact after a championship, the game's best clutch quarterback, a deep roster with a solid mental approach, and an excellent personnel department. The Patriots vary their game plans between running and passing from week to week and change up on defense better than any other team in the league.

Can win if: Dillon fits into the team as well as Bill Belichick expects he will. He doesn't need to carry the load because that's QB Tom Brady's role. The unheralded offensive line has to play well again, and PK Adam Vinatieri, great in the clutch, has to regain his consistency.

Will lose if: They are not able to replace NT Ted Washington. Keith Traylor, who once lined up alongside Washington with Chicago, was brought in to try to fill the hole. If Traylor doesn't do the job, and it's not a given that he will, first-round pick Vince Wilfork, who also is being tried at end, could find himself in the lineup very early.

Transition: Dillon, of course, is the most significant addition. Damien Woody, who has started at both guard and center, signed with Detroit, and Washington is with the Raiders. LB Rosevelt Colvin, last year's key free-agent signing, is counted on to help, too; he missed all but the first two games a year ago due to injury.

Outlook: New England appears the most solid choice to repeat since Denver won back-to-back titles in the '90s.

Buffalo ranked 30th in the NFL on offense last year and second on defense. The Bills hope their defense can maintain its strength while the offense improves under new coach Mike Mularkey, who will bring variants of the West Coast offense with some innovations. Last season went down the drain in November when Buffalo lost three straight games in which it allowed a total of 39 points.

Their plan: The Bills are convinced they can win with Drew Bledsoe at quarterback. Bledsoe's arm is strong but his legs are not, so they are concentrating on improving his protection and strengthening the running game with Travis Henry and, hopefully, Willis McGahee. The defense again has very strong veteran leadership and Mularkey wisely retained defensive coordinator Jerry Gray.

Can win if: They are right about Bledsoe, but that is uncertain. Also, Buffalo must get better play out of its wide receivers; a year ago, Josh Reed was expected to take the slack for Peerless Price, who was traded, but did not, and Eric Moulds' production fell off, too. McGahee, who did not play as a rookie, must prove that his surgically repaired knee can stand up to an NFL pounding.

Will lose if: The offense does not improve as hoped, if Bledsoe again is sacked at last year's rate (more than one sack for every 10 passes thrown), if the attempt to force playing time for McGahee messes up a running game that Henry has handled very well.

One significant explanation for the Jets' first losing season since 1996 was the training camp hand injury to quarterback Chad Pennington, which caused him to miss seven games. The Jets started 0-4 and never recovered. Ironically, once Pennington got healthy, the defense, which played OK in his absence, fell apart.

Their plan: Coach Herman Edwards has adopted a new get-tough approach and hired a new defensive coordinator. Problem is that Edwards might be trying to change his own personality, and that rarely works. But a tougher defensive approach might help, and new coordinator Donnie Henderson believes more in an aggressive scheme than his predecessor, Ted Cottrell.

Can win if: Pennington recaptures the 2002 season, in which he was the NFL's top-rated passer. The Jets have tried to give him a little more receiving help than just Santana Moss, but that was only one of the issues last year. Coordinator Paul Hackett must do a better job of calling plays, too. On defense, improvement from tackle Dewayne Robertson, last year's first- round pick, is needed.

Will lose if: Running back Curtis Martin, now 31, continues his slow slide. Martin's 1,308-yard total last year was a little deceiving because he ran for only two touchdowns, none in the first 11 games. The Jets also need improved play from the offensive line and the secondary.

It was a tumultuous offseason for the Dolphins, who shook up their front office, went through two offensive coordinators, lost running back Ricky Williams on the eve of training camp and wide receiver David Boston early in camp, then traded away Adewale Ogunleye, the AFC sack leader. Dave Wannstedt has had four consecutive winning seasons, but is under pressure to produce postseason success.

Their plan: The Dolphins' formula of trying to win with defense and the running game is not likely to change, although they have a real weakness in the backfield with Travis Minor and Sammy Morris. On the other hand, they failed to reach the playoffs the two years they had Williams.

Can win if: A.J. Feeley can emerge and play a full season at the level he showed when he took over for an injured Donovan McNabb late in the 2002 season with the Eagles. First, however, Feeley has to win the job against Jay Fiedler, who ran the run-first offense efficiently. The defense declined as the year went on last season, and it must improve.

Will lose if: No runner or combination of runners is able to make up for the yards that Williams used to gain and no top-shelf wideout emerges. Miami thinks it will have a better passing game but it's not clear whether either holdover Fiedler or Feeley is good enough to operate a passing game that would carry the team. DE Jason Taylor must have a huge year as a pass-rusher to carry a secondary that has shown signs of slippage.

Transition: Feeley, S Antuan Edwards and CB Reggie Howard are the most significant additions. The offensive line has been largely rebuilt, perhaps not for the better, with the loss of OT Todd Wade, among others. And, of course, Williams and Onunleye are gone. Miami never really had Boston, who signed as a free agent and is out for the year with a knee injury.

Outlook: They have failed to live up to expectations for years. Expectations are not a problem this year.

10-6

Offense

Rush...17

Pass...26

Total...24

Defense

Rush...5

Pass...19

Total...10

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