In original terms, the January balance on goods and services was a deficit of $2,349m, an increase of $264m on the deficit in December. Goods and services credits fell $1,354m (10%) and goods and services debits fell $1,090m (7%).

In the seven months to January, exports of non-rural and other goods were up $7.6b (15%) and rural goods were up $2.1b (16%) on the corresponding period in 2003-04.

NOTES

REVISIONS

Revisions were made to rectify reporting errors in 2003 - 04. In original terms, these revisions have increased the deficit on goods and services for 2003-04 by $44m.

INQUIRIES

For further information about these and related statistics, contact the National Information and Referral Service on 1300 135 070 or Artur Andrysiak on Canberra (02) 6252 6792.

ANALYSIS AND COMMENTS

BALANCE ON GOODS AND SERVICES

The trend estimate of the balance on goods and services in January 2005 was a deficit of $2,612m, an increase of $56m on the deficit in December.

In seasonally adjusted terms, the balance on goods and services in January 2005 was a deficit of $2,721m, an increase of $307m on the deficit in December.

EXPORTS OF GOODS AND SERVICES

The trend estimate of goods and services credits rose $25m between December and January to $13,010m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, goods and services credits fell $47m between December and January to $13,023m. Rural goods fell $104m (5%), while non-rural and other goods rose $6m and services credits rose $51m (2%).

In original terms, exports of rural goods fell $516m (24%) to $1,646m.

Movements in the original series contributing to the fall in seasonally adjusted terms were:

other rural, down $233m (25%), compared with an average December to January fall of 11% over the previous three years

meat and meat preparations, down $254m (43%), compared with an average December to January fall of 37% over the previous three years

wool and sheepskins, down $128m (48%), compared with an average December to January fall of 38% over the previous three years.

Partly offsetting these effects were cereal grains and cereal preparations, up $99m (26%), compared with an average December to January rise of 18% over the previous three years.

Contributing to the offset by about 1 percentage point was an adjustment made as part of the regular seasonal adjustment process to take into account different trading day patterns in December and January.

Exports of goods continued

Non-rural and other goods

The trend estimate of non-rural and other goods exports rose $66m (1%) to $8,205m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, exports of non-rural and other goods rose $6m to $8,209m.

In original terms, exports of non-rural and other goods fell $1,317m (15%) to $7,213m.

Movements in the original series contributing to the rise in seasonally adjusted terms were:

metal ores and minerals, down $175m (11%), compared with an average December to January fall of 20% over the previous three years

other mineral fuels, up $32m (4%), in contrast to an average December to January fall of 5% over the previous three years

metals (excluding gold), up $10m (1%), in contrast to an average December to January fall of 7% over the previous three years

other non-rural, down $76m (9%), compared with an average December to January fall of 13% over the previous three years.

Largely offsetting these effects were:

other goods, down $35m (5%), in contrast to an average December to January rise of 32% over the previous three years

other manufactures, down $447m (35%), compared with an average December to January fall of 22% over the previous three years

machinery, down $346m (46%), compared with an average December to January fall of 37% over the previous three years.

Exports of services

SERVICES CREDITS

In trend terms, services credits rose $10m to $2,841m.

Seasonally adjusted, services credits rose $51m (2%) to $2,885m.

Movements in the seasonally adjusted components contributing to this rise were:

In original terms, imports of consumption goods fell $83m (2%) to $3,721m.

Movements in the original series contributing to the rise in seasonally adjusted terms were:

non-industrial transport equipment, up $47m (4%), in contrast to an average December to January fall of 17% over the previous three years

textiles, clothing and footwear, up $210m (58%), compared with an average December to January rise of 34% over the previous three years.

Contributing to the rise by about 6 percentage points was an adjustment made as part of the regular seasonal adjustment process to take into account different trading day patterns in December and January.

Partly offsetting these effects were:

consumption goods n.e.s., down $135m (11%), in contrast to an average December to January rise of 1% over the previous three years

household electrical items, down $107m (30%), compared with an average December to January fall of 18% over the previous three years

toys, books and leisure goods, down $47m (17%), compared with an average December to January fall of 5% over the previous three years.

Capital goods

The trend estimate of imports of capital goods fell $37m (1%) to $2,836m.

In original terms, imports of capital goods fell $593m (20%) to $2,416m.

Movements in the original series contributing to the fall in seasonally adjusted terms were:

civil aircraft, down $131m (99%), in contrast to large December to January rises over the previous three years

machinery and industrial equipment, down $222m (18%), compared with an average December to January fall of 3% over the previous three years

capital goods n.e.s., down $71m (18%), compared with an average December to January fall of 13% over the previous three years.

Partly offsetting these effects were:

telecommunications equipment, down $99m (25%), compared with an average December to January fall of 41% over the previous three years

industrial transport equipment n.e.s., up $34m (9%), in contrast to an average December to January fall of 3% over the previous three years.

Contributing to the offset by about 8 percentage points was an adjustment made as part of the regular seasonal adjustment process to take into account different trading day patterns in December and January.

Intermediate and Other Goods

The trend estimate of imports of intermediate and other goods rose $20m to $5,646m.

In original terms, imports of intermediate and other goods fell $567m (10%) to $5,162m.

Movements in the original series contributing to the fall in seasonally adjusted terms were:

fuels and lubricants, down $367m (27%), compared with an average December to January fall of 2% over the previous three years (crude petroleum volumes fell 26.6% and prices fell 8.5% between December and January)

processed industrial supplies n.e.s., down $26m (2%), in contrast to an average December to January rise of 9% over the previous three years

other parts for capital goods, down $98m (12%), compared with an average December to January fall of 1% over the previous three years

other goods, down $79m (18%), in contrast to an average December to January rise of 1% over the previous three years.

Partly offsetting these effects were:

parts for transport equipment, up $9m (2%), in contrast to an average December to January fall of 2% over the previous three years

other merchandise goods, steady, compared with an average December to January fall of 10% over the previous three years.

Contributing to the offset by about 6 percentage points was an adjustment made as part of the regular seasonal adjustment process to take into account different trading day patterns in December and January.

Imports of services

SERVICES DEBITS

In trend terms, services debits rose $29m (1%) to $3,106m.

Seasonally adjusted, services debits rose $53m (2%) to $3,135m.

Movements in the seasonally adjusted components contributing to this rise were:

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