Blake Bortles Is The Tom Brady Of Garbage Time

Blake Bortles thrives when the Jaguars are losing by more than one score and the game is almost over.

Stacy Revere / Getty Images

If the Pro Football Hall of Fame had a special wing for Garbage Time, they’d already be sculpting Blake Bortles’s bust.

On the surface, the Jacksonville Jaguars’ signal-caller fits the profile of a perfectly mediocre NFL quarterback. But the traditional stats don’t show the true Bortles: He is the NFL’s best when the game is basically over. In garbage time — which we define as the last five minutes of the fourth quarter, when a team is down multiple scores (9 or more points) — Bortles transforms into the franchise quarterback Jacksonville envisioned when they made him the No. 3 overall pick in the 2014 NFL Draft. In these scenarios in the past two seasons, Bortles has completed 78 of 118 for 964 yards with 12 touchdowns. He’s tossed only four picks. His passer rating in these instances is 111. To get a sense of how good that is, Tom Brady’s rating across all of last season was 112.

Since 2015, 20.7 percent of Bortles’s total touchdown passes have come when the fans are heading for the exits. That’s nearly four times the average for the rest of the league. It’s done little to help the fortunes of the Jags, who have won eight games in the last two seasons and failed to come back in any of the 15 where they were trailing big late. So his body of garbage-time work has been meaningless to everyone except his fantasy owners.

Bortles is at his best when it matters least …

Projected 2017 starters based on their performance in garbage time (GT) compared to non-garbage time, 2015-2016

RATING

TOUCHDOWNS

PLAYER

CUR. TEAM

ATT.

GT

NON-GT

% DIFF.

GT*

TOTAL*

% IN GT*

B. Bortles

Jaguars

118

111.0

80.5

37.9%

12

58

20.7%

B. Osweiler

Browns

45

103.8

75.5

37.5

4

25

16.0

S. Bradford

Vikings

58

111.1

91.9

20.9

5

39

12.8

A. Luck

Colts

60

100.6

88.0

14.3

5

46

10.9

M. Stafford

Lions

83

91.2

95.4

-4.4

5

56

8.9

D. Brees

Saints

73

98.3

101.6

-3.2

6

69

8.7

T. Taylor

Bills

51

105.4

93.4

12.8

3

37

8.1

B. Hoyer

49ers

41

80.0

94.8

-15.6

2

25

8.0

J. Winston

Bucs

84

82.4

85.4

-3.5

4

50

8.0

J. Cutler

Dolphins

30

115.1

87.8

31.1

2

25

8.0

A. Dalton

Bengals

25

125.6

96.9

29.6

3

43

7.0

C. Wentz

Eagles

31

78.7

79.3

-0.8

1

16

6.3

A. Smith

Chiefs

40

104.2

92.8

12.3

2

35

5.7

J. McCown

Jets

35

65.7

87.3

-24.7

1

18

5.6

K. Cousins

Redskins

53

94.8

99.5

-4.7

3

54

5.6

C. Palmer

Cardinals

39

64.5

97.0

-33.5

3

61

4.9

P. Rivers

Chargers

36

103.4

90.7

14.0

3

62

4.8

B. Roethlisberger

Steelers

42

86.3

95.3

-9.4

2

50

4.0

R. Wilson

Seahawks

32

109.4

100.6

8.7

2

55

3.6

M. Ryan

Falcons

20

110.6

101.9

8.5

2

59

3.4

D. Carr

Raiders

57

75.6

94.9

-20.3

2

60

3.3

E. Manning

Giants

20

120.0

89.3

34.4

2

61

3.3

J. Flacco

Ravens

15

115.0

82.9

38.7

1

34

2.9

A. Rodgers

Packers

20

134.8

98.0

37.6

2

71

2.8

M. Mariota

Titans

51

85.8

94.3

-9.0

1

45

2.2

C. Newton

Panthers

19

57.6

88.0

-34.5

0

54

0.0

D. Prescott

Cowboys

0

0.0

104.9

—

0

23

0.0

T. Brady

Patriots

6

88.2

106.4

-17.1

0

64

0.0

T. Siemian

Broncos

27

38.2

87.3

-56.2

0

18

0.0

Garbage time defined as the last five minutes of the fourth quarter, when the passer’s team is down multiple scores (9 points or more). Minimum of 450 pass attempts, so doesn’t include data for the projected starters on the Bears, Texans and Rams.
* Includes passing touchdowns only.

Source: NFL Tru Media

The only thing Bortles is as good at as posting garbage-time numbers is creating garbage time with his lackluster play in meaningful time. According to ESPN data, last year when a team was within one score (8 or fewer points) in the first half of games — one of the situations in which the game’s outcome is most uncertain — Bortles was the worst quarterback in football. He completed 96 of 158 passes (60.8 percent) last year for 963 yards and just five touchdowns versus eight picks. His rating in these situations was just 67.6. What’s more, in the past two years, Bortles has thrown only half as many touchdown passes in the first quarter of all games (six) as he threw in the last five minutes of games he had already lost.

And he’s at his worst when the game is undecided

How 2016 quarterbacks fared when the game was within 8 points in the first half

QB

TEAM

RAT.

Matt Ryan

Falcons

124.1

Tom Brady

Patriots

113.1

Philip Rivers

Chargers

109.9

Aaron Rodgers

Packers

108.6

Colin Kaepernick

49ers

106.3

Dak Prescott

Cowboys

105.7

Russell Wilson

Seahawks

101.4

Ben Roethlisberger

Steelers

99.4

Marcus Mariota

Titans

98.9

Sam Bradford

Vikings

97.3

Ryan Fitzpatrick

Jets

96.2

Derek Carr

Raiders

96.0

Joe Flacco

Ravens

95.5

Case Keenum

Rams

95.4

Ryan Tannehill

Dolphins

95.2

Andy Dalton

Bengals

94.1

Alex Smith

49ers

93.8

Drew Brees

Saints

93.7

Tyrod Taylor

Bills

92.0

Eli Manning

Giants

91.7

Matthew Stafford

Lions

91.1

Kirk Cousins

Redskins

89.7

Cam Newton

Panthers

83.8

Trevor Siemian

Broncos

83.5

Carson Palmer

Cardinals

76.9

Carson Wentz

Eagles

75.2

Jameis Winston

Bucs

75.1

Brock Osweiler

Texans

69.4

Andrew Luck

Colts

67.7

Blake Bortles

Jaguars

67.6

Minimum of 224 attempts.

Source: NFL Tru Media

Bortles throws more garbage-time passes than anyone, partly as a result of his own crummy play earlier in games. By comparison, Brady has only thrown six garbage-time passes in the last two seasons — or 112 fewer than Bortles — because the Patriots are never losing.

It may seem like any quarterback would be more productive when opponents are easing into a prevent defense and beginning to daydream about their next game. But in the last two seasons, the average non-Bortles QB saw his rating increase only marginally in these scenarios, 2.4 percent. Bortles’s rating jumps 37.9 percent.

Despite Bortles’s ability to excel only when the chips are off the table, the Jaguars picked up his fifth-year option in May, meaning they will pay him $19 million in 2018. The move mystified many NFL observers, but general manager Dave Caldwell and new executive vice president Tom Coughlin rationalized that Bortles’s salary over this year and next will still be below average — two words that Bortles is familiar with.