Monday, April 13, 2015

Weekend rainfall amounts & a preview of what's to come

Smith county rope tornado - courtesy Virgil Christmann

Storms Sunday evening produced at least one very brief tornado in eastern Smith county. It didn't last more than a minute, and there are some questions as to whether or not it even touched down. This new week will hopefully be a productive one for rainfall in Kansas. We've been missed by so many storms lately and now, the setup is looking better and better for much of the state to get soaking moisture.

First, let's go over what happens for the start of the week. We had some spotty severe storms Sunday evening, but the rain will stay in Oklahoma for Monday afternoon and most of Tuesday. There is a weakening low pressure that will come right over Wichita Tuesday, and it could stir up a few showers. Won't be anything more than that and the amounts will likely end up under .10"

So the main focus throughout the week will be on the one coming in for the middle and end of the week. All of the forecast models we study suggest it will slow down and produce a couple of days (at least) of some much needed, perhaps widespread rainfall. It's unclear whether there will be severe storms, but Thursday and Friday have at least chances for some hail and wind. It will be something to analyze as time draws closer. I'm posting the forecast rainfall, but don't focus on the numbers too much. Things will change in the next few days, but it offers up some hope as to what could be on the horizon in just about 4 days. It wouldn't end the drought, but sure would put us in better condition.