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понедельник, 22 сентября 2014 г.

Can India Assert Itself Against China?

By
Tridivesh Singh Maini

Provoking
border conflict may no longer be an effective tool for Beijing.

While
Chinese President Xi Jinping and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi did meet on
the sidelines of the BRICS Summit in July, Xi’s three-day trip to India last
week was the first bilateral meeting between the two leaders, and there were
high – somewhat unrealistic – expectations of the visit.

If
one were to identify some of the more interesting aspects of the visit, the
first would be that it came less than a month after Modi visited Japan. Modi
was given a warm welcome by Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, with whom he
shares a strong rapport. Modi’s trip to Japan was reasonably successful, and it
was thus expected that Xi would also make strong overtures towards India,
specifically in the economic realm.

Second,
Xi arrived in Ahmedabad (Gujarat) on September 17 and not the capital New
Delhi. The Indian premier also went against traditional protocol, and received
the Chinese president and First Lady Peng Liyuan there.

Xi’s
visit to Gujarat was perhaps aimed at striking a personal chord with the Indian
premier. Modi’s red carpet reception of Xi in Ahmedabad was also interesting.
Not only did he get a chance to showcase Gujarat’s culture and heritage, but it
was also in sync with Modi’s objective of exhibiting cities other than the
nation’s capital, as well as India’s soft power. The premier’s keenness to
utilize soft power was evident from their visit to the Sabarmati Ashram, and
the cultural performances which followed. Before departing for China, Xi also
invited Modi to visit Xian, which is the president’s hometown. The Chinese monk
Huein Tsang, who stayed in India for over 16 years to study Buddhism (629-645
AD), spent his remaining life in Xian.

Beyond
the visit to Sabarmati Ashram and the riverfront, some of the important
agreements signed in Gujarat were the setting up of a business park in
Ahmedabad, for which China will invest $5 billion. MOUs were also signed for a
sister city pact between Guangzhao City and Ahmedabad, as well as Guangdong
province in China and Gujarat.

By
the second day of the visit, September 18, the bonhomie had considerably
diminished. The main cause was the incursion by Chinese soldiers into Chumur
(Ladakh). Incursions on the eve of high-level bilateral meetings are nothing
new. Yet they did come as a surprise, especially at a time when Modi had made a
strong effort to ensure the Dalai Lama delayed his visit to India, so that Xi
did not have to face any embarrassment, even though the protests by Tibetans
outside Hyderabad House surely could not have taken place without some approval
from the top.

However,
a number of agreements were signed between the countries, including assistance
in upgrading railways, industrial parks and nuclear energy; twin city status
for Mumbai and Shanghai; as well as further progress on the Bangladesh, China,
India and Myanmar (BCIM) Corridor.

China
committed to investing $20 billion in India, far short of the $100 billion
suggested by Liu Youfa, China’s Consul General in Mumbai.

The
issue of Chinese incursions did, however, overshadow other issues. This point
is clearly manifest by the fact that during Modi’s 90-minute meeting with Xi,
as well as during the subsequent press statement, he unequivocally put forth
India’s concerns about territorial disputes. He also made it clear that before
moving ahead in other spheres such as economics, trade and increasing
connectivity, it is important to address the trust deficit between both
countries. Significantly, even former Prime Minister Manmohan Singh made it
clear to Xi that not much progress is possible in other realms without a
resolution of the territorial dispute.

It
is true that both countries need to recognize the reality that neither can
expect to have their way completely. Similarly, cooperation in the economic
sphere is desirable between both countries.

Yet,
the tactic of twisting India’s arm may no longer be appropriate for China.
While New Delhi has its share of strategic challenges, so does China – in its
own neighborhood.

With
a revival of economic growth, a focus on connectivity, and some proactive
diplomacy in South Asia and South East Asia, India is likely to enjoy many
economic and strategic opportunities. New Delhi may have faced a barrage of
problems in the past three or four years, but it would be a mistake for Beijing
to assume that India will quietly accept Chinese provocations.

Tridivesh
Singh Maini is associated with The Jindal School of International Affairs,
Sonepat. The views contained here are the author’s.

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YOUTH PEACE PLAN OF GEORGIA

This publication is produced within the framework of the project - ‘‘Support Democratic Participation of Young Women in Building Peace and Stability in Georgia’’ implemented in Georgia by International Network for Civil Development - INCD in partnership with Young Women Experts’ Network for Peace and Security (YWEPS) and with the financial support of the Embassy of Canada through Fund for Local Initiatives (CFLI).