Things are picking up. The wind is strengthening and it's raining pretty hard. Apparently the nasty part of the storm is about an hour away. As far as missing the game goes, losing power might be an attractive alternative to what I'm seeing so far!!!

Ed said it...all over the place! I can't find a good global to plot. I think Mary is speaking of LBAR that comes south of Aplach. Morning will bring more info. Who do you think has it made on this board? Hands down.... HankFrank! Enjoy my man...enjoy!

i don't know what to make of it. looks like it's drifting north, for what it's worth. unless it runs much further north or sits still of the yucatan.. such a feature moving slowly over water under those atmospheric conditions should be a go.
of course, the bay of campeche has some interesting convection going as well. there ought to be a system out of this, but still far too diffuse to make any solid predictions.
juan landfalling near halifax, kate losing ground to shear. bastardi's culprit wave for the week following the upcoming one is low in latitude and looking nifty near 45w.
HF 0318z29september

Just wanted to add that its really amazing how Juan retained the look of a tropical cyclone..a real hurricane for so long up north...at such a high lat.. rarely do you see a system look so tropical...so much a hurricane when at same lat as Long Island.

And.............as for the Carib...well has anyone waited so long for anything to happen or anything to appear?

huh? juan's look isn't that rare at that latitude. sometimes they go by newfoundland still looking tropical. alberto about three years ago was a good example of that.. it still looked tropical at 50N.
90L seems to be drifting nnw.. or at least an mlc is. surface obs are hard to interpret, they suggest a low at any given time, but a very confused one. whatever is there seems to be near cozumel now. or something. movement is slow, very slow. just like the evolution.
HF 0532z29september

90L still not wanting to do much. It seems to have drifted a bit north overnite and looks to have a weak center pretty much over cozumel. Pressure at 1006 there and winds ESE. Maybe the proximaty to land is slowing development.

A lot of rain coming up from the tropics into Florida and here on the Treasure Coast we have a flood watch.

The area in Bay of Campeche looks better this morning. I wonder if it is helping to keep 90L from spinning up.

We are getting on of those slow drenching rains here in Central Florida that are reminiscent of those warm lows that hang around for days and days. There does not appear to be a speck of breeze with the rain here in the center of Florida Peninsula. HF thanks for the correction on the model. I tend to not do too well without my glasses on. Who ever heard of wearing glasses while you read???

Think its more likely than not for something to form a closed center at some point down the road.

There seems to be an area hovering on the coast around Cozumel that continues to spin and blow up intense convection. Looks stronger on all loops now than it did the last few days.

The area is broad and I can't decide whether upper level winds are stopping it from congealing or if there are two areas within the broad area of low pressure that inhibit the other from exploding.

But, exploding it might do..down the line.

I'm not into the shear charts and SOI sio star war form of meterology that some of you more professional types are into.. more detailed oriented than me ... it all distracts me from my basic love of just watching the darn thing loop.

Enjoy reading your thoughts and will see what happens but right now going with climo and tenacity and synoptics and think its more than a 50/50 chance that something will form some sort of low. Note pressures in Cozumel are low though don't see any strong winds. Imagine a system like this could be very "Irene-like" in that flooding rains could be far east of the actual low pressure center that develops.

Par for the tropical course in the month of October and we are almost in October.

The weather and atmosphere here is getting darker and heavier at 10:00 Am EDT. I have a lot of critters here such as 4 cats, 2 squirrels, 4 birds, and two tanks of fish. All of them are in their something is gonna happen mode. I wish they could tell me what they think. But, weatherwise, It is spooky.

hard to pick a center out from SFC obs other than to say the lowest reported pressure has been near cozumel.. but those obs are only updating intermittently. upper ridging has been suppressed to the north by some impressive shear over the gulf... SFC N/NE winds have dived down into the bay of campeche/central gulf in a frontal wake (with all the upper energy shifting east with the leading shortwave).
the low near cozumel is in a naturally comfy place.. or at least should be if neither the NE flow or tropical flow from the east infringe on its weak circulation. otherwise this bottleneck should act to tighten it.
the convective pattern is lopsided NE and bursting convection near the assumed center.. over land. over water it would be a shoe-in.. over land and nudging the periphery of the upper support its slightly questionable.. but there should still be a system forming down there, in spite of models failing to register much.
kate still moving NE, banding-type eyespot flashing as it did yesterday. really way the hell out in the middle of nowhere. juan gone, the subtropical low behind it gone, both to canada.
bay of campeche system looking less defined than yesterday afternoon.. probably nothing at the surface, just a mid level disturbance.
HF 1442z29september

LOL jl (and hang onto that action HF).
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I watched JB's tropical update this morning and I'll give you what I got from the discussion. He sees a center somewhere between Cancun and Cozumel. He disagrees with almost all the models. UKMET/GFS rush it off into Mexico. The European moves it north to the UT coast. His problem wtih the European is that he believes the high over the western caribbean will pulse west then back east and there won't be a mechanism for 90L to keep moving west. He likes the idea of something in the south central Gulf vs. something near Mexico/Texas. They he offered divergent forecast problems and just said that this is a situation that the Gulf Coast should be on alert for. He hasn't come out and said "major hurricane threat" but you can see that he's leaning that way utilizing the assumption that it doesn't just head off into Mexico. He thinks it sits in the BOC/Southern Gulf for 4 or 5 days south of the NE flow and cranks. He drew a parallel to Opal but hasn't suggested this will be an Opal. Of note, his hurricane intensity/landfall forecast still needs a hit in the Al/MS and SFL zones to score a coup de'grace for him.
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My take now makes sense to me. Much of the energy will in fact be moving in on FL south of Tampa. It's just that the system as a whole will not be.
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For the SIO SOI Star Wars crew, the SOI remains negative for the 11th day. Flattening/zonal flow should follow the 15 day lag period begun 9/19/03. That means amplification should be more or less busted by Sunday or Monday with the set of tropical problems that goes along with it.

heh... not my action man. don't believe in cutting in on anyone. do unto others as.. ya know. i'm not exactly hurting for options, as college campuses these days have that higher ratio of females. fine by me guys, go to tech school, leave me here in the castle anthrax.
think that whatever low pressure is near cozumel will probably jump the yucatan over into the lower BOC. just like the NHC official yesterday evening.. think it will refocus over there. just needs a big spot of convection to get it happening over that way. the upper high 'shelter' seems to be shifting over that way, and though there may be a max on the low near cancun, it's still a broad area of turning that can skip its focal point around as needed.
of course this is a very complex problem.. there are plenty of potential outcomes. one that needs not be forgotten is that it could never get organized.. but i don't think that will be the case this time around.
dang, better get to work.
HF 1656z29september

Well, Juan is finally gone, having done some damage to Halifax; Kate is forecasted to begin a loop-de-loop and could be hanging around for some time; 90L will be investigated tomorrow...right now, two models are showing west coast strikes: LBAR just south of Panama City & BAMD between Sarasota & Tampa/St. Pete...will need to be watched.

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