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Week 3 CFB Best Bets

Before we get going this week, I wanted to mention that Rotoworld now has a college football podcast dedicated to betting against the spread. Every week, my co-host Mark Lindquist and I pick our five favorite sides of the week. Last week, in the first ever episode, we went 7-3 ATS. The newest episode dropped Wednesday afternoon. Check us out on iTunes here. If you leave a review, I'll shout you out on the next episode!

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Baylor -6.5 vs. Duke

When this number was released on Sunday, it was between Baylor pick’em and Baylor -2. I called my podcast co-host Mark all giddy. The books I'm with, however, had not released a line. By Monday morning, they had — with Baylor now a 6.5-point favorite. I lament the lost points, and the subsequent drop of my win expectancy percentage, but I’m going to take the plunge here anyway.

This is such a bad situation and spot for Duke. Last week, the Blue Devils went on the road and beat Northwestern at its own game in a physical, defense-oriented fistfight (21-7). But Duke suffered two catastrophic injuries in that game, with QB Daniel Jones breaking his clavicle (out indefinitely) and CB Mark Gilbert sustaining a season-ending hip injury.

Both losses are brutal. Jones, a prime NFL prospect with prototypical size, a strong arm and plus mobility, is vital to everything Duke does offensively. Low key Jones is one of the most valuable players to his team in the country. This scheme was built to cater to his strengths.

So not only do you lose your best offensive player, but David Cutcliffe must greatly amend the attack itself to accommodate Jones' understudy Quentin Harris, who has more rushing yards than throwing yards in his career. Without Jones, Duke no longer has a passing attack to keep defenses honest. It also hurts that WR Aaron Young, the leading receiver in the opener, is out with a hamstring issue. RB Brittain Brown may have to get used to safeties cheating up to stack the box over the next month.

As for Gilbert, you’re talking a top-five NFL cornerback prospect. A lock-down collegiate corner coming off a First-Team All-ACC season. Duke had a top-20 defense with him. Without him, it gets downgraded. Just how much, we’ll have to see. The loss hurts all the more with S Jeremy McDuffie (Third-Team All-ACC) still out. McDuffie suffered a knee injury last November, played sparingly in the opener, and didn’t travel with the team last week. With Gilbert and McDuffie, this was one of the country’s best secondaries. Without them, it’s a big question mark.

And that is a big problem against Baylor, a team with two prime NFL prospects at receiver (Jalen Hurd and Denzel Mims) and a third who’ll get a long look as well (Chris Platt). Baylor’s gameplan is pretty simple here: Stress Duke’s inexperienced secondary as much as possible. Get those young defensive backs on islands with Hurd and Mims, two huge genetic freaks, and force them to make plays in space.

Baylor is averaging over 350 passing yards per game on more than 10.3 ypa. The opponents haven’t been strong, but that’s still plenty encouraging. I'm a fan of underrated QB Charlie Brewer.

For Baylor, this is an enormous game. HC Matt Rhule is coming off a 1-11 debut season and desperately wants to return Baylor to the postseason. After this game, the nine-game Big 12 schedule begins. Head into it 3-0, and Baylor has a really strong shot to go bowling, needing only a 3-6 Big 12 record to punch its ticket. Losing this game to head in 2-1 would greatly complicates things, as Baylor would need to not only hold serve against Kansas, K-State and Texas Tech at home to go bowling, but also upset a team like Iowa State or West Virginia on the road. The odds of all four happening are below 50-percent.

Rhule knows all this quite well. So do the home fans, who’ll pack the house for the afternoon kick knowing that a win over a compromised ACC opponent drastically improves the Bears' odds of reaching the postseason.

As for Duke, you’re in a comedown spot off the physical Northwestern game with your emotional sails deflated by the injuries. And with home games to come against against FCS NC Central, Virginia, UNC and Wake Forest, this isn’t the must-win spot for Duke that it is for Baylor. Cutcliffe will have his troops ready, he always does, but it would take a herculean coaching effort to coax an upset win out of his squad after the week it just had.

Buffalo -3 vs. Eastern Michigan

A few computer models I looked at this week disagree with my play here. But I’m going to go with my gut and back Buffalo again one week after they cashed big for me by beating Temple outright as 4.5-point dogs.

To me, it seems like the computer models, the bookmakers and the public at large hasn’t caught up to just how good the Bulls are quite yet. And I guess that makes sense. I think folks tuned out after last year’s team started 3-6. Tyree Jackson was mediocre before going down with an injury in Week 4 (733 yards, 3/1 TD/INT, 55.4% completions). After an injury to the backup, Buffalo eventually had to use a third-stringer for a short spell before Jackson returned for the final four games. Jackson reemerged as a new quarterback, a dual-threat stud (1,363 yards, 9/2 TD/INT rate, 63.4% completions), and his progress further helped along WR Anthony Johnson, already one of college football’s best receivers.

Buffalo won their last three games last season to finish 6-6. Perhaps if they’d pasted some Conference USA team in the bowl game, or upset a low-tier Big 10 team, they would have entered this year with some respect. Instead, the Bulls were one of the few teams that wasn't selected and they were forced to stay home. And that just kind of rubbed me the wrong way: Four of Buffalo's six losses last year were by four points or less, two were by a single point, and it was clear by the end of the year that Buffalo was one of the MAC’s better teams. Heck, they upset MAC blueblood Ohio in the finale.

But the snub conspired to give the Bulls great betting value for one more year — or at least the beginning of it. I don’t see EMU as Buffalo’s equal, which is what this line insinuates. EMU is coming off a wild walk-off win against a down Purdue outfit, an ever-rare win over a Power 5 opponent for the boys from Ypsilanti. That outcome deflated this line in our favor, and the Eagles are due for a letdown spot. The ascending Bulls will be happy to accommodate them.

Kent State +35 at Penn State

If you’re into value shopping, come grab some free points with me. The issue with this line is that it’s treating Penn State and Kent State as if this was 2016 or 2017. But the Nittany Lions aren’t that team anymore. Maybe they will turn into an approximation later this season. But they’re not there yet. You don’t lose 11 of your 21 starters and one of the sport’s best offensive coordinators (Joe Moorhead) and come back better for it the following September. Growing pains were to be expected, and that’s why I backed Appy State in the opener at PSU, an easy winner.

Here’s another spot to fade the new-look Nittany Lions at a nice price. Because just as Penn State isn’t the team they were the past two years, neither is Kent State. If you follow me on Twitter, you may have seen me suggesting a play on Kent State -9.5 against Howard on Saturday. KSU won that game 54-14. This came one week after the Golden Flash gave Illinois everything it could handle in a 31-24 loss. This team is much improved. The lines just don’t reflect that yet.

Kent State was incompetent in the final years of the previous regime. The program appears revitalized under new HC Sean Lewis, formerly the OC at Syracuse. Lewis’ uptempo spread system gives KSU the offensive teeth they haven’t had in forever. KSU is nowhere near being a good team, and it’s likely that they’ll finish 3-9 or 4-8 in the MAC. But there’s a huge difference between a listless, offense-bereft 2-10 team and an exciting, offense-first` 4-8 squad on the upswing.

For one, Kent State isn’t likely to roll over in Happy Valley. They’ll spread Penn State out and hope that some of the Nittany Lions’ inexperienced defenders make a few mental mistakes that will lead to explosive plays. Kent State won’t win this game, but their relentless style is going to annoy the hell out of the Nits.

Penn State showed its age by struggling mightily with Appy State in the opener. This number seems to put a lot of stock in last week’s blowout win over Pitt, which perhaps suggested to people that the Nittany Lions of old were back. Not so fast. The final score may have been 51-6, but in reality the game was a lot closer than that. PSU only outgunned Pitt by 90 yards, and Pitt controlled six more minutes of the gameclock. The Panthers spent the afternoon unloading the clip with a revolver pointed at their feet.

Tennessee -30.5 vs. UTEP

I can’t believe I’m going to lay 30-plus points with the Tennessee Volunteers, but here we are.

Here’s the deal. UTEP is the worst team in the FBS, and I’m not sure it’s particularly close (S&P+ certainly concurs, listing UTEP 130 out of 130 and a full two-plus points below No. 129). The Miners opened the season by losing to FCS Northern Arizona by 20 points. Last week, they lost by four touchdowns to UNLV.

This is a weekly thing with them. UTEP hasn’t covered a spread since last Oct 7 (!!!). They haven’t won a game outright since 2016 (!!!). This year’s defense is particularly lousy, and the passing attack completes only 43% of its attempts. I have tentatively made a personal agreement with myself to bet against UTEP every week until they cover. If I'd made that blood pact last October, I'd be retired in Barbados right now.

Tennessee is an extremely flawed team. But they retain a high talent level, and HC Jeremy Pruitt could certainly use one more blowout win heading into the meat of the schedule. The Vols beat ETSU last week by 56. UTEP is listed a little ahead of ETSU on the Sagarin rankings, but I had to scroll into the 180s to find out for sure.

S&P+ suggests this line should be around -40, and I tend to agree.

Miami (OH) +13.5 at Minnesota

I live in Minneapolis. My father is a Minnesota grad, as are a handful of my friends. I grew up with Gopher football. Meanwhile, I have made good money since the start of last year betting against RedHawks HC Chuck Martin. Miami went 4-8 ATS last year, and is 0-2 ATS to start 2018. I opposed Miami in both spots in this space.

So why am I suddenly supporting Martin as he tangos with the team of my youth? Because this isn’t a good spot for the Gophers.

Minnesota improved to 2-0 last weekend by knocking off Fresno State in an extremely impressive Saturday night showing. Minnesota is a top-heavy team with a few stars and a bunch of nondescript veterans and inexperienced youngsters surrounding them. The stars — WR Tyler Johnson, LB Blake Cashman and S Antoine Winfield, to name three — showed out against the Bulldogs, and the rest of the ragtag squad avoided mistakes in a 21-14 nail biting win that was sealed on an insane Winfield interception.

But instead of this being a good-vibe week around Minneapolis, a decidedly somber tone fell upon the program when it was announced that Johnson’s fellow offensive star, RB Rodney Smith, would miss the rest of the season with a knee injury.

Smith’s loss is devastating on multiple fronts. From a morale perspective, the young Gophers are losing one of their true veteran leaders. From a philosophical standpoint, a team with a true freshman walk-on starting quarterback has lost a security blanket. From an overall offensive perspective, an attack with few playmakers just lost a guy who had a decent shot to get drafted in the spring. And from a depth perspective, this one stings — the run-heavy Gophers lost Smith’s co-starting RB Shannon Brooks before the season.

Now the Gophers will platoon a pair of freshman RBs next to their true freshman QB. The WR2 is also a true freshman. Tyler Johnson must feel like he woke up inside a senior prom with all the babies around him. And for the Gophers, who were already potentially looking at a letdown/lookahead spot with a big win over Fresno last week and the Big 10 slate kicking off next week, everything just got stickier.

Meanwhile, for Miami, this is a carefree spot. The team entered the fall with big expectations coming off an injury ravaged season and got upset as short favorites in the opener against Marshall. Last week, again as short favorites, Miami got shut out by Cincy in the Bengals’ stadium. But that game isn’t the best datapoint, as it was played in a downpour.

The reason I’ve made so much money against Martin in his last 14 games is that Martin’s abominable record in close games (5-18 in one possession games, 5-19 in single-digits games) makes him a fade in games where the matchup appears close. I trust in Martin’s ability to hand the opposing team the game, and thereby hand me a winning ticket.

This is a different kind of spot. Nobody expects the RedHawks to win. All Miami has to do is hang around. And that shouldn't be a problem here, because Minny didn't have a lot of offensive talent even before Smith went down. The Gophers simply aren't equipped to be laying this kind of number against a team with a pulse. And despite my pessimism about Martin, I think Miami retains one of those. I think the RedHawks recognize that this is a real opportunity to steal a game against a Big 10 opponent, much like EMU did last week at Purdue.

Before we get going this week, I wanted to mention that Rotoworld now has a college football podcast dedicated to betting against the spread. Every week, my co-host Mark Lindquist and I pick our five favorite sides of the week. Last week, in the first ever episode, we went 7-3 ATS. The newest episode dropped Wednesday afternoon. Check us out on iTunes here. If you leave a review, I'll shout you out on the next episode!

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Baylor -6.5 vs. Duke

When this number was released on Sunday, it was between Baylor pick’em and Baylor -2. I called my podcast co-host Mark all giddy. The books I'm with, however, had not released a line. By Monday morning, they had — with Baylor now a 6.5-point favorite. I lament the lost points, and the subsequent drop of my win expectancy percentage, but I’m going to take the plunge here anyway.

This is such a bad situation and spot for Duke. Last week, the Blue Devils went on the road and beat Northwestern at its own game in a physical, defense-oriented fistfight (21-7). But Duke suffered two catastrophic injuries in that game, with QB Daniel Jones breaking his clavicle (out indefinitely) and CB Mark Gilbert sustaining a season-ending hip injury.

Both losses are brutal. Jones, a prime NFL prospect with prototypical size, a strong arm and plus mobility, is vital to everything Duke does offensively. Low key Jones is one of the most valuable players to his team in the country. This scheme was built to cater to his strengths.

So not only do you lose your best offensive player, but David Cutcliffe must greatly amend the attack itself to accommodate Jones' understudy Quentin Harris, who has more rushing yards than throwing yards in his career. Without Jones, Duke no longer has a passing attack to keep defenses honest. It also hurts that WR Aaron Young, the leading receiver in the opener, is out with a hamstring issue. RB Brittain Brown may have to get used to safeties cheating up to stack the box over the next month.

As for Gilbert, you’re talking a top-five NFL cornerback prospect. A lock-down collegiate corner coming off a First-Team All-ACC season. Duke had a top-20 defense with him. Without him, it gets downgraded. Just how much, we’ll have to see. The loss hurts all the more with S Jeremy McDuffie (Third-Team All-ACC) still out. McDuffie suffered a knee injury last November, played sparingly in the opener, and didn’t travel with the team last week. With Gilbert and McDuffie, this was one of the country’s best secondaries. Without them, it’s a big question mark.

And that is a big problem against Baylor, a team with two prime NFL prospects at receiver (Jalen Hurd and Denzel Mims) and a third who’ll get a long look as well (Chris Platt). Baylor’s gameplan is pretty simple here: Stress Duke’s inexperienced secondary as much as possible. Get those young defensive backs on islands with Hurd and Mims, two huge genetic freaks, and force them to make plays in space.

Baylor is averaging over 350 passing yards per game on more than 10.3 ypa. The opponents haven’t been strong, but that’s still plenty encouraging. I'm a fan of underrated QB Charlie Brewer.

For Baylor, this is an enormous game. HC Matt Rhule is coming off a 1-11 debut season and desperately wants to return Baylor to the postseason. After this game, the nine-game Big 12 schedule begins. Head into it 3-0, and Baylor has a really strong shot to go bowling, needing only a 3-6 Big 12 record to punch its ticket. Losing this game to head in 2-1 would greatly complicates things, as Baylor would need to not only hold serve against Kansas, K-State and Texas Tech at home to go bowling, but also upset a team like Iowa State or West Virginia on the road. The odds of all four happening are below 50-percent.

Rhule knows all this quite well. So do the home fans, who’ll pack the house for the afternoon kick knowing that a win over a compromised ACC opponent drastically improves the Bears' odds of reaching the postseason.

As for Duke, you’re in a comedown spot off the physical Northwestern game with your emotional sails deflated by the injuries. And with home games to come against against FCS NC Central, Virginia, UNC and Wake Forest, this isn’t the must-win spot for Duke that it is for Baylor. Cutcliffe will have his troops ready, he always does, but it would take a herculean coaching effort to coax an upset win out of his squad after the week it just had.

Buffalo -3 vs. Eastern Michigan

A few computer models I looked at this week disagree with my play here. But I’m going to go with my gut and back Buffalo again one week after they cashed big for me by beating Temple outright as 4.5-point dogs.

To me, it seems like the computer models, the bookmakers and the public at large hasn’t caught up to just how good the Bulls are quite yet. And I guess that makes sense. I think folks tuned out after last year’s team started 3-6. Tyree Jackson was mediocre before going down with an injury in Week 4 (733 yards, 3/1 TD/INT, 55.4% completions). After an injury to the backup, Buffalo eventually had to use a third-stringer for a short spell before Jackson returned for the final four games. Jackson reemerged as a new quarterback, a dual-threat stud (1,363 yards, 9/2 TD/INT rate, 63.4% completions), and his progress further helped along WR Anthony Johnson, already one of college football’s best receivers.

Buffalo won their last three games last season to finish 6-6. Perhaps if they’d pasted some Conference USA team in the bowl game, or upset a low-tier Big 10 team, they would have entered this year with some respect. Instead, the Bulls were one of the few teams that wasn't selected and they were forced to stay home. And that just kind of rubbed me the wrong way: Four of Buffalo's six losses last year were by four points or less, two were by a single point, and it was clear by the end of the year that Buffalo was one of the MAC’s better teams. Heck, they upset MAC blueblood Ohio in the finale.

But the snub conspired to give the Bulls great betting value for one more year — or at least the beginning of it. I don’t see EMU as Buffalo’s equal, which is what this line insinuates. EMU is coming off a wild walk-off win against a down Purdue outfit, an ever-rare win over a Power 5 opponent for the boys from Ypsilanti. That outcome deflated this line in our favor, and the Eagles are due for a letdown spot. The ascending Bulls will be happy to accommodate them.

Kent State +35 at Penn State

If you’re into value shopping, come grab some free points with me. The issue with this line is that it’s treating Penn State and Kent State as if this was 2016 or 2017. But the Nittany Lions aren’t that team anymore. Maybe they will turn into an approximation later this season. But they’re not there yet. You don’t lose 11 of your 21 starters and one of the sport’s best offensive coordinators (Joe Moorhead) and come back better for it the following September. Growing pains were to be expected, and that’s why I backed Appy State in the opener at PSU, an easy winner.

Here’s another spot to fade the new-look Nittany Lions at a nice price. Because just as Penn State isn’t the team they were the past two years, neither is Kent State. If you follow me on Twitter, you may have seen me suggesting a play on Kent State -9.5 against Howard on Saturday. KSU won that game 54-14. This came one week after the Golden Flash gave Illinois everything it could handle in a 31-24 loss. This team is much improved. The lines just don’t reflect that yet.

Kent State was incompetent in the final years of the previous regime. The program appears revitalized under new HC Sean Lewis, formerly the OC at Syracuse. Lewis’ uptempo spread system gives KSU the offensive teeth they haven’t had in forever. KSU is nowhere near being a good team, and it’s likely that they’ll finish 3-9 or 4-8 in the MAC. But there’s a huge difference between a listless, offense-bereft 2-10 team and an exciting, offense-first` 4-8 squad on the upswing.

For one, Kent State isn’t likely to roll over in Happy Valley. They’ll spread Penn State out and hope that some of the Nittany Lions’ inexperienced defenders make a few mental mistakes that will lead to explosive plays. Kent State won’t win this game, but their relentless style is going to annoy the hell out of the Nits.

Penn State showed its age by struggling mightily with Appy State in the opener. This number seems to put a lot of stock in last week’s blowout win over Pitt, which perhaps suggested to people that the Nittany Lions of old were back. Not so fast. The final score may have been 51-6, but in reality the game was a lot closer than that. PSU only outgunned Pitt by 90 yards, and Pitt controlled six more minutes of the gameclock. The Panthers spent the afternoon unloading the clip with a revolver pointed at their feet.

Tennessee -30.5 vs. UTEP

I can’t believe I’m going to lay 30-plus points with the Tennessee Volunteers, but here we are.

Here’s the deal. UTEP is the worst team in the FBS, and I’m not sure it’s particularly close (S&P+ certainly concurs, listing UTEP 130 out of 130 and a full two-plus points below No. 129). The Miners opened the season by losing to FCS Northern Arizona by 20 points. Last week, they lost by four touchdowns to UNLV.

This is a weekly thing with them. UTEP hasn’t covered a spread since last Oct 7 (!!!). They haven’t won a game outright since 2016 (!!!). This year’s defense is particularly lousy, and the passing attack completes only 43% of its attempts. I have tentatively made a personal agreement with myself to bet against UTEP every week until they cover. If I'd made that blood pact last October, I'd be retired in Barbados right now.

Tennessee is an extremely flawed team. But they retain a high talent level, and HC Jeremy Pruitt could certainly use one more blowout win heading into the meat of the schedule. The Vols beat ETSU last week by 56. UTEP is listed a little ahead of ETSU on the Sagarin rankings, but I had to scroll into the 180s to find out for sure.

S&P+ suggests this line should be around -40, and I tend to agree.

Miami (OH) +13.5 at Minnesota

I live in Minneapolis. My father is a Minnesota grad, as are a handful of my friends. I grew up with Gopher football. Meanwhile, I have made good money since the start of last year betting against RedHawks HC Chuck Martin. Miami went 4-8 ATS last year, and is 0-2 ATS to start 2018. I opposed Miami in both spots in this space.

So why am I suddenly supporting Martin as he tangos with the team of my youth? Because this isn’t a good spot for the Gophers.

Minnesota improved to 2-0 last weekend by knocking off Fresno State in an extremely impressive Saturday night showing. Minnesota is a top-heavy team with a few stars and a bunch of nondescript veterans and inexperienced youngsters surrounding them. The stars — WR Tyler Johnson, LB Blake Cashman and S Antoine Winfield, to name three — showed out against the Bulldogs, and the rest of the ragtag squad avoided mistakes in a 21-14 nail biting win that was sealed on an insane Winfield interception.

But instead of this being a good-vibe week around Minneapolis, a decidedly somber tone fell upon the program when it was announced that Johnson’s fellow offensive star, RB Rodney Smith, would miss the rest of the season with a knee injury.

Smith’s loss is devastating on multiple fronts. From a morale perspective, the young Gophers are losing one of their true veteran leaders. From a philosophical standpoint, a team with a true freshman walk-on starting quarterback has lost a security blanket. From an overall offensive perspective, an attack with few playmakers just lost a guy who had a decent shot to get drafted in the spring. And from a depth perspective, this one stings — the run-heavy Gophers lost Smith’s co-starting RB Shannon Brooks before the season.

Now the Gophers will platoon a pair of freshman RBs next to their true freshman QB. The WR2 is also a true freshman. Tyler Johnson must feel like he woke up inside a senior prom with all the babies around him. And for the Gophers, who were already potentially looking at a letdown/lookahead spot with a big win over Fresno last week and the Big 10 slate kicking off next week, everything just got stickier.

Meanwhile, for Miami, this is a carefree spot. The team entered the fall with big expectations coming off an injury ravaged season and got upset as short favorites in the opener against Marshall. Last week, again as short favorites, Miami got shut out by Cincy in the Bengals’ stadium. But that game isn’t the best datapoint, as it was played in a downpour.

The reason I’ve made so much money against Martin in his last 14 games is that Martin’s abominable record in close games (5-18 in one possession games, 5-19 in single-digits games) makes him a fade in games where the matchup appears close. I trust in Martin’s ability to hand the opposing team the game, and thereby hand me a winning ticket.

This is a different kind of spot. Nobody expects the RedHawks to win. All Miami has to do is hang around. And that shouldn't be a problem here, because Minny didn't have a lot of offensive talent even before Smith went down. The Gophers simply aren't equipped to be laying this kind of number against a team with a pulse. And despite my pessimism about Martin, I think Miami retains one of those. I think the RedHawks recognize that this is a real opportunity to steal a game against a Big 10 opponent, much like EMU did last week at Purdue.

Syracuse +3.5 vs. Florida State

I did a double-take when this line came out — wait, Vegas was really installing Syracuse as home dogs to this dog of a Florida State team? Wait, really? And that was when Syracuse was -2. A day later, the number had surged over a field goal. Apparently the public is even more gung-ho on the Seminoles than bookmakers’ antiquated power rankings are. Great! Let's fade them, shall we?

To support FSU in this spot, you’re basically saying that you see the Seminoles as a touchdown better on a neutral site. And to me, that’s an absurd take if you’ve watched these teams play this year. Syracuse is better than FSU. At least right now, they are. (ESPN’s FPI, for one, agrees with me).

There isn’t much to like about this Florida State team. The offensive line was abominable even before it got hit with injuries. The running game, which I expected to be stellar, has been rendered toothless by the OL’s inability to keep opposing defenders out of the backfield. FSU has allowed 20 TFL over two games — and half of those games were against an FCS opponent!

QB Deondre Francois has been inconsistent as a passer and disinterested as a runner, the latter issue perhaps having to do with not wanting to get hit coming off a knee injury — either way, it makes reads pretty easy for defenders on option plays. FSU is regularly putting itself into the third-and-long scenarios it was maybe going to struggle with anyway, and on the occasions when the offense does start to click, red zone issues have cropped up, taking points off the board.

FSU’s pass rush isn’t getting to the quarterback, the linebacker play has been utterly ghastly (similar to the OL), and the secondary just gave up 475 passing yards at home to an FCS team one week after getting sliced up by Josh Jackson, a decent player who isn’t a star. Since the beleaguered defense isn't doing anything well at this point, it regularly gets stranded on the field. And once FSU gets the ball back, HC Willie Taggart is liable to run three plays in the blink of an eye and punt the ball on 4th-and-8 before you've returned from a bathroom break, putting the frazzled defense right back out there.

Last week, Samford torched Florida State for 525 yards of offense. That was no fluke, as almost all of Samford’s yards and points came in the first half. Per SB Nation’s Bill Connelly, Samford gained 348 yards on 10.5 per play and scored 23 points over their first six drives, while they managed a mere field goal and 177 yards (3.8) over their last 11.

If you get ripped by Samford’s offense at home, what happens when you take on Syracuse on the road? We’re about to find out. Syracuse has scored at least 55 points in each of its first two games. QB Eric Dungey, the tough-as-nails senior, looks prepared to leave college on his shield. He’s thrown for 402 yards and run for 244 with eight total TD so far. So long as he stays healthy, this offense will be flammable.

Under Babers, Syracuse has been way better at home (8-7) than on the road (3-8), and they’ve also been good for one upset over an ACC blueblood per year. In 2016, Babers’ first in New York, the Orange upset Virginia Tech at home. Last year, Syracuse famously knocked off Clemson in the Carrier Dome. I know that I’m supposed to say that Babers will bag his third big ACC scalp on Saturday. But I can’t exactly word it that way. This might be an upset in Vegas, but it won’t be in reality.

Army -5.5 vs. Hawaii

The 3-0 Rainbow Warriors are due for a comedown game. If you were writing the prescription for a classic comedown game, it would look something like this:

1.) Team vastly overachieves relative to expectation for multiple games to start out the season (CHECK!)2.) Team does so by ambushing teams with an unexpected system or a new star (CHECK!)3.) Team travels nearly 5,000 miles to play a game that kicks off at 7 a.m. local time (CHECK!)4.) Team is finesse in nature and playing a smashmouth squad (CHECK! CHECK!)5.) Team historically struggles in spot in question (Hawaii is 2-8 in games played in eastern time zone all-time -- CHECK!)6.) Team was already showing signs of slowing down heading into game (Hawaii was trying to ice the Rice game up 36-29 when it busted a long TD run — the Rainbow Warriors still didn't cover... CHECK!)

Nobody loves this Hawaii team more than me. I start working at 9 a.m. on Saturday mornings, and Hawaii has me staying up until 2:30 a.m. to catch the endings of their games. But this is the spot from hell. You either fade them or you stay away.

New Mexico State +4.5 vs. New Mexico

Listen: New Mexico State may be one of the FBS’ five-worst teams. They’ve lost by at least three touchdowns in all three games (Wyoming, Minnesota and Utah State). Laughably, the offense averages only 4.28 yards per pass attempt and 1.7 yards per carry. The defense is allowing 45.7 points per game.

This isn’t a team you should ever want to back. But when betting on sports, you have to bet the spot, not the team. And this is a pretty good spot for NMSU.

Firstly, to be clear: New Mexico is also one of the FBS’ worst teams. It might not be bottom-five bad. But it may be bottom-10 bad. Certainly bottom-20. On offense, the exciting shotgun-based triple-option attack was scrapped over the offseason in favor of a spread offense run by Calvin Magee, imported from Arizona.

The cynic in me thinks that was done as a sort of Hail Mary from HC Bob Davie, who probably shouldn't have a job right now (he served a 30-day suspension over the winter following accusations that he mistreated players and interfered with criminal/misconduct cases involving players). Losing this game would torpedo his odds of being around next year at this time.

Fading teams who have undergone big scheme changes is something I try to do early in the season when the spot warrants it. And this one does. Starting New Mexico QB Tevaka Tuioti is out with a concussion suffered last week against Wisconsin. It's hard to believe that this stinky Lobos squad is laying 4.5 points on the road against their archival despite starting their backup (QB Sheriron Jones). But dear reader, they are. And we must act.

The Albuquerque Journal referred to Tuioti as New Mexico’s “best player” on Monday. For his part, Jones turned the ball over three times after he came on in relief of Tuioti against Wisconsin. The score was 10-7 UW when Tuioti left. The Badgers went on a 35-7 run from there.

New Mexico State is four-for-four ATS in its last four against New Mexico — they were the underdog in each — with two outright wins. Three of those games were decided by three points or less. This is a game NMSU HC Doug Martin prioritizes, and the results speak for themselves.

Houston -1 at Texas Tech

Vegas opening Tech as three-point favorites was another line that made me scoff — make no mistake, Houston is the better of these two teams. And once again, the Cougars appear to be one of the Group of 5’s best teams.

OC Kendal Briles was brought in to put a jolt into the Cougs' offense. So far, so good — the Cougars have scored 45 points in each of their first two games, blowouts of Rice and Arizona. QB D’Eriq King is averaging nearly 10 yards per attempt with a 7/0 TD/INT rate, the ground attack is averaging 277 yards per game, and Houston has myriad outside options for Briles’ hyper-spread scheme.

On defense, Houston has arguably college football’s best player in DT Ed Oliver. The Cougars also have a few NFL defenders in their secondary. And that’ll help against Tech’s pass-happy offense. You can bet Oliver is licking his chops at the opportunity to take aim at Tech’s true freshman QB Alan Bowman. (Houston's QB King, by the way, has been so good that Oliver told the media that they should support his Heisman candidacy over his own).

Tech is coming off an irrelevant 77-0 win over FCS Lamar. The week before, we got a better indication of the quality level of this team, when Tech was blasted 47-27 by Ole Miss. I don’t like the direction this program is going, and that shows up in the numbers. Tech is 3-7 ATS over their last 10 and 1-4 ATS in their last five home games.

Houston, meanwhile, is 15-6 ATS in their last 21 September games and 13-6 ATS in their last 19 non-conference tilts. And here, in a spot they’ve performed well in over the past several years, they’re in a prime position to exact revenge in Oliver’s last year on campus: The Red Raiders have won seven of their last eight against the Cougars, including 27-24 last year.

Troy +12 at Nebraska

As this column went to press late Wednesday afternoon, it sure appeared as though Nebraska sophomore walk-on QB Andrew Bunch would be making his first career start for the Huskers on Saturday. True freshman starter Adrian Martinez suffered an injury last week against Colorado when a Buffaloes defender appeared to twist his ankle under a scrum. Through Wednesday, Martinez had yet to return to practice.

If Martinez’s injury is at all serious, it puts the Huskers in a really, really, really bad spot. Behind the walk-on Bunch is another walk-on, freshman Matt Masker. How did Scott Frost’s first team so quickly get into this kind of pickle? Because Tristan Gebbia, a former ESPN300 recruit, promptly left the program (for Oregon State) in late August after he’d been told Martinez won the job. Gebbia’s decision reportedly stunned the coaching staff. "We want guys who want to be here," Frost said afterward in a tone I assume was dripping in bitterness.

So let’s recap: Former starter Tanner Lee leaves early for the NFL last winter. Martinez is imported as a recruit. Former UCF QB Noah Vedral follows Frost and transfers in, but is ineligible to play in 2018 due to NCAA rules. Gebbia leaves for Oregon State. Martinez gets hurts in the opener. Add it all up and Nebraska somehow, only one game into the Scott Frost era, has zero healthy scholarship quarterbacks. And behind the two walk-ons? "We're having open tryouts after practice," OC Troy Walters joked (but was he?).

The good news for Nebraska is that its defense looks improved over last year’s abomination. That unit generated seven sacks and 12 TFL in the loss to Colorado. The running game also should be a plus this year. Heralded JUCO RB Greg Bell rushed for over 100 yards against the Buffs on a mere 13 carries.

But Martinez’s injury, and the assumed ascension of former QB3 Bunch to the starting role, makes Troy a live ‘dog on Saturday. Troy struggled defending the pass in the opener against Boise State, but the run defense has been outstanding, as it was last year. If Troy can slow Nebraska’s running game, it’s going to put Bunch in a bunch of third-and-long scenarios that you simply cannot project he’ll have success in.

I’m not really sure what we have in Troy’s offense yet — Kaleb Barker has looked fine in his first two games since replacing Brandon Silvers, but one of those games was against an FCS opponent, and Troy has used a committee to address Jordan Chunn’s loss in the early going — but I trust HC Neal Brown. Last year, Troy stunned LSU 24-21 in Death Valley in late September, and that LSU team was quite a bit better than this Nebraska team.

Troy finished 11-2 last year and has now won double-digit games in consecutive years. They’re no joke, and they’re a real threat to knock off the Huskers on Saturday.

Thor Nystrom is a former MLB.com associate reporter whose writing has been honored by Rolling Stone magazine and The Best American Essays series. Say hi to Rotoworld's college football writer on Twitter @thorku.Email :Thor Nystrom

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