During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

ECRI uses a highly nuanced “many-cycles” view to understand the complex dynamics of the global economy.

To monitor the U.S. economy alone, we use an array of more than a dozen specialized leading indexes in the context of the ECRI framework for incorporating various sectors and aspects of the economy.

The ECRI framework covers 21 economies, incorporating well over 100 proprietary indexes designed to be comparable across borders.

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What Lies Ahead for the U.S. Economy?

With some of the coincident indicators used to determine official recession dates rising above their mid-2012 highs, there is a popular perception that the U.S. economy avoided recession in 2012, and is poised to improve in the months ahead. Furthermore, growth in ECRI’s Weekly Leading Index has climbed to a three-month high. Does any of this negate ECRI’s recession call?

ECRI’s latest report analyzes the implications of the recent data releases, including the rise in the WLI and our recession call.

Indeed, it is also notable that, in the face of unprecedented quantitative easing by the Fed and other central banks, the Fed’s own measure of the economy’s “stall speed” plunged below its recessionary threshold in the second quarter of 2012 and then kept falling. Combining such indicators with a detailed analysis of ECRI’s large array of leading indexes, ECRI’s latest report provides unique insights into the U.S. economic outlook.