UFC Fight Night 11 Preview and Predictions

Today we preview for UFC Fight Night 11, which airs tomorrow night on Spike TV at 9 p.m. ET/PT. The event takes place at The Palms Las Vegas and features a main event between Kenny Florian and Din Thomas.

Main Event: Kenny Florian (6-3) vs. Din Thomas (20-6) — Originally scheduled to be Thomas vs. Spencer Fisher, Florian was added as a late replacement when Fisher came down with staph infection. Florian is seemingly always in training, so I don’t think fighting on short notice will be an issue.

There are major implications in regard to the outcome of this fight because the winner could be in line for a future shot at the lightweight title. If Sean Sherk’s appeal in October is upheld, then he’ll be stripped of the lightweight title and B.J. Penn in all likelihood will fight Joe Stevenson for the vacant championship at UFC 78 in Newark, N.J. It would not be a surprise to see the winner of Thomas vs. Florian face the winner of a potential Penn vs. Stevenson match.

Thomas, training out of American Top Team in Florida, has a tremendous ground game with 11 of his 20 wins coming via submission. He’s also 3-0 since returning to the UFC following an appearance on the fourth installment of “The Ultimate Fighter.”

He’ll have his hands full though with Florian, who ranks as a black belt in Jiu-Jitsu, so I see the ground game being a stalemate. Florian is one of the hardest working fighters in MMA and has improved in almost every facet of MMA since debuting with the UFC in 2005. Known primarily as a submission specialist, he worked his ass off and started showing excellent Muay Thai skills with some vicious leg kicks.

The knock against Florian at that point was that he didn’t have much ground and pound. Well, he went back to the gym and worked on that and took out Alvin Robinson with G ‘N’ P at UFC 73. He has also upped his nutrition and conditioning and came in shredded for his past fight. If there’s something broke in Florian’s game, he goes out and fixes it. What was a weakness in one fight suddenly becomes a strength in his next.

Final Prediction: I don’t see either guy finishing the other. I see this going to a decision, and I’m picking Florian because he has more offense in his arsenal.

Terry Martin (16-2) vs. Chris Leben (16-4) — This is a nice little semi-main event. Both are sluggers with one-punch knockout power. With both having similar styles, this match will be brief, but exciting nonetheless.

Martin is on a four-fight win streak and is 2-0 since returning to the UFC and dropping from light heavyweight to middleweight. It is a weight class that suits him well in spite of the fact that he’s still small for middleweight. For all of his punching power, Leben still might not have as much power as Martin, with 10 of Martin’s 16 wins coming via TKO or KO.

A win for Martin could put him in the picture for a future middleweight title shot in a division that is in a drought when it comes to viable challengers. For Leben, it’s a chance for him to get back on the winning track. He’s lost two straight fights and has just one win in his last four fights. The UFC likes his aggressive style and the notoriety he gained from “The Ultimate Fighter,” but he still needs to make a strong accounting for himself.

Leben actually has some wrestling ability, but his ground game is not technical enough for him to rely on it as a way to win. There are also questions about his conditioning. Leben says he’s in the best condition of his career. but we’ll have to wait and see. He trains hard, but he also parties hard. Leben has acknowledged to being a big drinker, and you can see he retains a lot of water as a result. If he cut out drinking, he could probably fight at 170 pounds.

Final Prediction: Leben will have the reach advantage, but Martin is fearless and won’t be afraid to fight inside. The two will likely trade in the pocket, but I predict Martin will win because he has the power advantage. Look for Martin to take it with a first-round TKO.

Nate Diaz (6-2) vs. Junior Assuncao (5-2) — Assuncao is no joke, but I think his brother, Raphael, might be the best fighter in the family. We all know that Diaz has a brother who fights as well, so this is an interesting matchup. This should be a good fight, and it will be interesting to see if Diaz’s striking has improved. His ground game is legit, but he still has some areas for improvement. He’s worked with boxing coaches in the past and he’s still very young, so the Nate Diaz we see Wednesday night won’t be the same one we saw at The Ultimate Fighter 5 Finale vs. Manny Gamburyan, who looked very beatable.

Final Prediction: Diaz by third-round submission.

Pete Sell (7-3) vs. Nate Quarry (8-2) — This match got bumped up to the TV portion after Mike Swick pulled out of his match vs. Jonathan Goulet due to injury. Sell vs. Quarry is an interesting match because both guys bring the heat. They also haven’t always shown the best chins in the world. In fact, the last time we saw Quarry, he was doing a Ric Flair dead fall onto the mat after getting blasted by Rich Franklin at UFC 56.

Since the loss to Franklin, Quarry has been idle recovering from a neck injury and reevaluating his career options. I’m not really sure where he’s at in his career right now because rumor has it that Team Quest gave him the boot. I have no idea where he’s been training, who he’s been training with, or how motivated he is. Is he coming back from the long layoff because he misses the competition? Or is this some sort of cash grab? I hope “The Rock” is 100 percent committed to MMA because if he’s not, he’s going to get hurt by Sell.

Final Prediction: There are just so many unknowns with Quarry. As such, I can’t pick him to win and have to go with Sell via second-round TKO.

Preliminary Matches:

Thiago Alves (11-3) vs. Kuniyoshi Hironaka (11-3) — Sell vs. Quarry interests me, but I’d rather see the Alves vs. Hironaka match televised because I think it has a chance to be great. Before getting suspended, “The Pitbull” was starting to gain some traction, which is not easy to do in the UFC’s crowded welterweight division. A product of ATT, Alves is a fighter to watch, and if he was in another promotion, he’d be getting a lot more attention. Hironaka is no joke with wins over Charuto, Nick Diaz and Ryan Schultz, but I’m going to go with Alves winning via unanimous decision.

Dustin Hazelett (9-3) vs. Jonathan Goulet (19-8) — I’ve never been the biggest Goulet fan in the world. It seems like he got back into the UFC by talking his way back into the mix. Hazelett, a product of Team Jorge Gurgel in Ohio, is my pick here.

Leonard Garcia (10-2) vs. Cole Miller (12-2) — Is the UFC trying to make Garcia the “TUF 5″ killer? He took out “Monsta Lobsta” at The Ultimate Fighter 5 Finale and now they are putting him up against Miller. Miller spent some time recently at Cesar Gracie’s Jiu-Jitsu Academy to get ready for this match, so hopefully working with top training partners helped him get prepared for this match. I really like Garcia as he impressed me vs. Roger Huerta, and I think he might be too tough for Miller. I’m going with Garcia.

Luke Cummo (5-4) vs. Edilberto de Oliveira (8-1-1) — This could be a match that really thrills the live crowd because both are skilled. This is a very even match. Cummo doesn’t have the best record in the world, but the UFC has never done him any favors. They never give the kid a layup. A Matt Serra product, Cummo is similar to Florian in the sense that he improves rapidly each time out. He also has a kid on the way, and he needs the money. I’m thinking he comes out like a ball of fire and takes the win.

Gray Maynard (2-0) vs. Joe Veres (4-1) — Veres is a UFC newcomer that I don’t know much about, other than the fact that he fought for the Cage Fury Fighting Championships in Atlantic City once. Obviously, we know a lot more about Maynard. He’s a great wrestler but still needs to become a more versatile mixed-martial artist. Working with Randy Couture at Xtreme Couture in Vegas is a damn good place to try to expand your game. I think the UFC holds Maynard in high esteem, and my gut instinct says they wouldn’t put him in a position where they didn’t think he would succeed. As such, Maynard is my pick. I apologize for the lack of scientific analysis on this one.

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