Tuesday, January 22, 2013

CFNAI back to Yellow Alert

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index is a composite index built from 85 monthly indicators. A reading of zero is historical trend growth, a reading above zero is faster and below zero is slower growth.

The composite for December was 0.02 and the three month moving average was -0.11. The last two months have shown some improvement back toward long term trend growth, but the three month moving average posted a 10th consecutive negative reading. It has moved out of the red alert zone back into yellow alert.