Sunday, February 2, 2014

Denver Broncos (-2 1/2) over Seattle Seahawks
This point spread has been shockingly stable, which is surprising considering I think it's low. The truth is this has been a fairy tale season for Peyton Manning, and I don't see the fairy tale ending. The big knock on his career - his lack of substantial playoff success - should be obliterated with a victory today. The weather is looking extremely pro-Manning, but even if it was freezing, I would expect him to respond to that secondary knock that he isn't good in cold weather. Yes, Seattle is a formidable team, but I don't think they have what it takes to defeat one of the greatest QBs of all time in peak form. And they lived happily ever after...

Sunday, January 19, 2014

New England Patriots (+6) over Denver Broncos
It looks pretty good for Peyton Manning and the Broncos. The weather isn't too bad (which helps, as his record is dubious in cold weather) and they have the home field advantage, plus Tom Brady is reportedly slightly sick and injured. Might as well notch this one a big W for Denver, right? Well, maybe. But keep in mind, the point spread has been as high as six points at the MGM (like when I jumped on it on Thursday evening.) And even if the rumors are true, a second-best Brady is still better in the playoffs than ninety percent of all QBs. Then remember this: Tom Brady is 10-4 lifetime in games against Peyton Manning. Only two of Manning's four victories were above six points. Betting on Manning would defy history, and I'm not going to defy history here.

San Francisco 49ers (+3 1/2) over Seattle Seahawks

The last two times the 49ers went into Seattle, they got blown out. Bad. But then, so have many other teams. And the Seattle Seahawks that blew them out aren't the same team they are now. Seattle, like many number one seeds over the past decade, seem highly uncomfortable in that role. It is a team with only three playoff games under its belt. This will be SF's eighth in the Harbaugh era. They are the playoff-rich team with a battle tested defense and an offense that finally seems in sync. Expect the Niners to go to their second straight Super Bowl.

Saturday, January 11, 2014

New Orleans Saint (+8 1/2) over Seattle Seahawks
Yes, Seattle is a great home team and the Saints are a bad road team. But this point spread is just too huge, and the Seahawks are relatively inexperienced in the playoffs.

Indianapolis Colts (+7 1/2) over New England Patriots
Again, the high point spread is the key here. With little pressure on Andrew Luck in expectations, I imagine he'll play well and at the least keep it close.

San Francisco 49ers (+1) over Carolina Panthers
At one point this week the 49ers actually were the dog and I jumped on it. Most spreads have SF a slight favorite, but I don't expect it to be close. The 49ers have underperformed most the season, and they're still one of the top four teams in the NFL. They'll prove it against Cam Newton.

San Diego Chargers (+10) over Denver Broncos
Yes, Peyton Manning has had an incredible season, but he has a stunning history of underperforming in the playoffs. And which team has he consistently had the worst history of underperforming against in big games? Look it up: it's the Chargers, who he lost to earlier this season. And then let's factor in the colder weather he'll be playing in, which is another Manning liability. So add it up and: is ten points too much? Yes.

Saturday, January 4, 2014

Kansas City Chiefs (+2 1/2) over Indianapolis Colts
The Colts seem happy to have just won their division. The Chiefs, on the other hand, seem ready to prove more, feeling disrespected after an 11-5 season.

Philadelphia Eagles (-2 1/2) over New Orleans Saints
The Saints are a great team, but the rip on them is true: they just aren't as good of a team on the road as home. Playing in freezing Philly will not help them at all.

San Diego Chargers (+7) over Cincinnati Bengals
The Chargers, like the Chiefs, are an underrated team. They could easily outright win, and if not, I expect a close one.

San Francisco 49ers (-2 1/2) over Green Bay Packers
I love Aaron Rodgers guts in a season-extending win last week. But the 49ers are a more complete team, and their greatest strength, a dominating defense, is actually the big winner in the freezing temps they'll be playing through in Lambeau Field.

Wednesday, January 1, 2014

It's time for The Konformist 2014 simulation of a college football playoff, and this is a special milestone year in our push for a playoff. It is the final year of the BCS championship, which the NCAA now concedes has failed to do its job. And while the new system will begin with only four teams, it seems that sooner rather than later the NCAA will realize the benefits (including more money) of expanding the playoffs to an opening round of four games that will lead to the semifinals. In short, the plan that we are advocating looks like the solution the NCAA will embrace sooner rather than later.

This year, the choice for the eight finalists is a pretty simple one: the 5 major conference champs, the highest ranked champ among the non-major conferences (UCF) and the two top ranked teams that didn't win a conference (Alabama and Ohio State.) Here are the teams, and their rankings according to the AP:

The five conference winners will be represented in the four major bowls they are linked to, with the Big 12 champ going to the Cotton Bowl rather than the Fiesta Bowl. The other three spots will fill in the seedings, with Alabama facing the lowest ranked champion available (Baylor) and UCF facing the highest ranked champ (Florida State) leaving Ohio State to face Auburn.

In addition there are three consolation games. The Fiesta Bowl will have the two top champions from the non-major conferences face off: 18th-ranked Louisville will represent the American Athletic, since the actual AA champ (UCF) is in the final eight and Louisville is still the top ranked non-major team left, and they will face 21st-ranked Fresno State. The Peach Bowl will have the two top-ranked teams left, which will be eigth-ranked South Carolina against tenth-ranked Oregon. Finally, the Florida Citrus Bowl will round out the Playoff Bowl series, featuring the top two teams left available, ninth ranked Missouri against 11th-ranked Oklahoma.

So the final four are Florida State, Auburn, Alabama and Michigan State. As teams from the same conference can't play each other in a bowl game unless it's the NCAA championship, Florida State will face Alabama in the Gator Bowl and Auburn will face Michigan State in the Sun Bowl. These games would be played on January 13-14, or starting on the second Monday in Janary. Here are the results of those games: