Long Range Tracking: Crawl, Stuber, & More Summer Updates

This week’s report welcomes a couple of new additions to the two-month industry outlook, slated to release on Friday, July 12.

PROS:

Crawlwill hope to rally fans of producer/horror veteran Sam Raimi and director Alexandre Aja with a well-timed, midsummer alligator creature feature. Early trailer reactions are largely positive, and this could attract a healthy teen/date night audience in the vein of films like Don’t Breathe, The Shallows, and 47 Meters Down.

Stuberpairs together one of comedy’s biggest rising stars in Kumail Nanjiani (The Big Sick, Silicon Valley) and another Marvel staple, Dave Bautista (Guardians of the Galaxy, Spectre). Positive trailer reactions and the lack of direct comedy competition in July make this a strong sleeper contender.

CONS:

The horror/thriller market is fairly crowded this summer, notably with Crawlopening just over two weeks after Annabelle Comes Home and two weeks before Brahms: The Boy 2. As is typical with original films in the genre, tracking visibility will improve significantly close to release.

Early social media trends for Stuber are unsurprisingly modest for the original pic, but initial comparisons include the likes of last summer’s Tag.

Opening Weekend Ranges

Crawl ($13 – 22 million)

Stuber ($12 – 21 million)

8-Week Tracking

Release Date

Title

3-Day Wide Release Tracking

% Chg from Last Week

Domestic Total Forecast

% Chg from Last Week

Estimated Location Count

Distributor

5/24/2019

Aladdin

$68,500,000

2%

$192,000,000

2%

4,300

Disney

5/24/2019

Booksmart

$7,000,000

n/a

2,300

United Artists Releasing

5/24/2019

BrightBurn

$9,000,000

-10%

$23,000,000

2,600

Sony / Columbia

5/31/2019

Godzilla: King of the Monsters

$54,000,000

$144,000,000

3,900

Warner Bros.

5/31/2019

Ma

$23,000,000

$60,000,000

3,100

Universal

5/31/2019

Rocketman

$40,000,000

$165,000,000

3,500

Paramount

6/7/2019

Dark Phoenix

$50,000,000

6%

$118,000,000

4%

Fox

6/7/2019

Late Night

n/a

n/a

Amazon Studios

6/7/2019

The Secret Life of Pets 2

$70,000,000

-13%

$245,000,000

-7%

Universal

6/14/2019

Men In Black International

$39,000,000

$107,000,000

Sony / Columbia

6/14/2019

Shaft (2019)

$31,000,000

$100,000,000

Warner Bros.

6/21/2019

Anna

$9,000,000

$26,000,000

Lionsgate / Summit

6/21/2019

Child’s Play (2019)

$17,000,000

$42,500,000

Orion Pictures

6/21/2019

Toy Story 4

$117,000,000

4%

$390,000,000

Disney / Pixar

6/26/2019

Annabelle Comes Home

$31,000,000

$101,000,000

Warner Bros. / New Line

6/28/2019

Yesterday

n/a

n/a

Universal

7/2/2019

Spider-Man: Far from Home

$120,000,000

$405,000,000

Sony / Columbia / Marvel Studios

7/3/2019

Midsommar

n/a

n/a

A24

7/12/2019

Crawl

$18,000,000

NEW

$47,000,000

NEW

Paramount

7/12/2019

Stuber

$17,500,000

NEW

$65,000,000

NEW

Fox

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