Crop models and climate change

A rapid inventory and meta-analysis of crop models in relation to climate change impact studies

Background

To be effective, CCAFS needs to identify and align key partners in the international agricultural impact modelling community to work together for shared purposes. Given that there is a large number of efforts in the area of climate change impact modelling, there is a need to identify current gaps in the global toolbox of crop models as related to food security, evaluate the importance of these gaps, and then identify opportunities and set in motion activities to plug the key ones, where this is feasible. In this way, it should be possible to avoid duplication of effort. One step in this process is to take stock of current crop modelling activities, particularly in relation to impacts work, as a means of identifying where future emphasis should be placed.

Objectives

The objective was to carry out a rapid meta-analysis of existing crop models that have been and are being used for climate change impact studies, through designing and running an on-line survey of model developers and users, and to write up a report of the results with recommendations for further work.

Activities

The work involved the development of a meta-analysis template, allowing crop models to be described in relation to the processes simulated, inputs, outputs, level of detail of key processes, evaluation, uses, published literature, known limitations, strengths, weaknesses, ease of use of the model and the skills required to run it, and planned development work. A distribution list of model keepers and model developers was assembled, and these people were contacted with a request to fill in the template. The information was then assembled and a short synthesis written up.

Outputs

Final Report:

Report on the Meta-Analysis of Crop Modelling for Climate Change and Food Security Survey, by Mike Rivington (Macaulay Land Use Research Institute) and Jawoo Koo (International Food Policy Research Institute). December 2010. Download (PDF)