2013 Oscar predictions

THE Oscars are on Monday our time, and while many people will be quoting Gone
With The Wind's most famous line in response, movie fans will be glued to the
results.

Why so fascinated? The Oscars, for all the criticisms and
controversies, are a pretty good summary of the year that was in cinema -
especially when you combine them with their antithesis, The Razzies, which take
place on the day before the Academy Awards.

We can probably rule out most of
the nominees through the process of elimination. Beasts Of The Southern Wild -
too indie and arty. Zero Dark Thirty and Silver Linings Playbook - too
underwhelming. Amour - too foreign. Les Miserables - too divisive. Django
Unchained - too violent, which isn't a good thing for Hollywood to endorse amid
the gun debate. So that leaves Argo, Life Of Pi and Lincoln. It would be great
to see Argo win, but with Ben Affleck not nominated for best director it seems
unlikely - only twice in the past decade have the best film and best director
gongs been won by two different films. The last time it happened was in 2005,
when Crash won best film but Ang Lee won best director for Brokeback Mountain.
Lee looks the goods this year for best director for managing to film the
unfilmable novel Life Of Pi, so put your money on him and Life Of Pi for best
director and best film.

Best actor

Daniel Day-Lewis (Lincoln) and
Denzel Washington (Flight) have won before, Joaquin Phoenix (The Master) has
been nominated before, and Bradley Cooper (Silver Linings Playbook) and Hugh
Jackman (Les Misérables) are the newcomers. Washington seems least likely -
there haven't been raves about his performance like the others. Silver Linings
Playbook is the first film since Reds (1981) to be nominated in all four acting
categories, but will probably get beaten in all of them. This one's most likely
got Day-Lewis's name on it - Phoenix and Jackman are in with a shot, but they'd
be getting in the way of Day Lewis making history and becoming the first man to
win three best actor Oscars.

Best actress

Compared to previous
years, this is a pleasingly low-key list of actresses. None of the big guns of
previous years are present but there is plenty of opportunity to make history.
If Emmanuelle Riva (Amour) wins, she'll be the oldest best actress winner ever.
If Quvenzhané Wallis (Beasts Of The Southern Wild) wins, she'll be the youngest
best actress winner ever. But Australia's Naomi Watts (The Impossible) is the big gun here -
she's the only one who's been nominated in this category before and she would be
a thoroughly deserving winner. She looks like she went through hell to make The
Impossible, and deserves the win. Jessica Chastain (Zero Dark Thirty) and
Jennifer Lawrence (Silver Linings Playbook) give good performances but neither
are as daring or edgy as Watts's turn. The dark horse is Wallis, the plucky
nine-year-old who pretty much carries the entirety of Beasts Of The Southern
Wild with skill beyond her years. If Watts doesn't win, I hope it's
Wallis.

Best supporting actor

This could be renamed the
"veteran actor award" this year. Phillip Seymour Hoffman (The Master) is the
youngest nominee at 45, and all five nominees have won Oscars before. It's
probably the closest race out of any of the awards, so you have to look for
excuses as to why each one won't win. Alan Arkin (Argo) is great, but his role
is small and essentially comic relief. Robert De Niro (Silver Linings Playbook)
does his best work in years but it still feels well short of his glory years.
Tommy Lee Jones (Lincoln) and Hoffman have been praised for their performances
but have tended to be overshadowed by the praise of their co-stars Day-Lewis and
Phoenix respectively. That leaves the inimitable Christoph Waltz (Django
Unchained), who steals the show from star Jamie Foxx and deserves the win here.
The great injustice is that his co-star Leonardo DiCaprio wasn't nominated - it
would have been a real two-horse race between DiCaprio and Waltz.

Best
supporting actress

This category looks the closest to being a dead cert. Amy
Adams (The Master), Sally Field (Lincoln), Helen Hunt (The Sessions) and Jacki
Weaver (Silver Linings Playbook) are all nominated, but this will be Anne
Hathaway's night for her perfomance in Les Misérables. She's already won more
than 40 awards for the turn so you can pretty much lock the Oscar in. If she
doesn't win, it will launch conspiracy theories to rival Marisa Tomei's win in
this category in 1992 (apparently Jack Palance read out the wrong
name).

And the rest....

Best original screenplay will probably go
to Django Unchained and it will be the only award it wins, Life Of Pi is best
bet for adapted screenplay, best animated feature is wide open but I wouldn't
begrudge Wreck-It Ralph the win, Amour will win best foreign film by default,
and expect Life Of Pi to dominate a lot of the other category.