Synopsis

Fearless optimist Anna sets off on an epic journey—teaming up with rugged mountain man Kristoff and his loyal reindeer Sven—to find her sister Elsa, whose icy powers have trapped the kingdom of Arendelle in eternal winter. Encountering Everest-like conditions, mystical trolls and a hilarious snowman named Olaf, Anna and Kristoff battle the elements in a race to save the kingdom.

The home market was a disaster this week. There's really no way around that fact. Exodus: Gods and Kings and the rest of the new releases led the way, but it wasn't nearly as good as last week's number one film, Hunger Games: Mockingjay, Part 1, so that led to declines of 8.8% in terms of units and 6.7% in terms of revenue when compared to last week. Compared to last year, Blu-ray sales were down 74% in terms of units and 73% in terms of revenue. Granted, this week last year, Frozen was released, so that explains the absolute destruction in the year-over-year comparison. There is some good news, sort of. DVD sales were even worse in the week-over-week comparison, so the overall Blu-ray share rose to 44%.
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We are getting back to weekly home market analysis this weekend, but before we do that, let's have a brief look at the home market in 2014. The overall winner was Frozen, which just destroyed the competition. It sold more Blu-rays (7.23 million units for $152.93 million) than the nearest competitor, The Hunger Games: Catching Fire sold total units, and had more combined sales than the next three best-selling films. It is the second-best selling Blu-ray off all time and will soon top Avatar for first place. Additionally, the film surpassed 10 million DVDs sold by a significant margin at 11.03 million units for $185.48 million, while its overall home market sales for the year were 18.27 million units for $338.41 million in total sales.
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This Thursday is Thanksgiving, which means this is Black Friday and Cyber Monday, and a ton of shopping. It also means the first installment of our Holiday Gift Guide. Over the next month, we will talk about TV on DVD releases, independent releases, foreign language releases, classics, etc. but this week we start with Major Movie Releases. These are first run releases, franchise box sets, etc. In some ways, this is better than last year, as there were a wider number of big releases that would make great gifts. However, in other ways it is much weaker. I can't think of a single big franchise box set that came out this year. There are some smaller ones, like the HalloweenBox Set, but while the franchise has lasted ten installments and 30 years, how many can you really say are worth repeated viewing? Fortunately, there were plenty of great films to come out this year, starting with what is currently the biggest hit of the year.
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Transformers: Age of Extinction remained in first place with $100.3 million in 50 markets for totals of $543.5 million internationally and $752.3 million worldwide. This makes is the biggest worldwide hit of the year so far. Granted, half of the film's international total came from China where it has made $279.75 million so far, including $56.36 million this past week, and the studio gets a very small share of the box office revenue from that market. As for new markets, the film debuted in first place in the U.K. with $20.11 million on 533 screens, including previews. This is the biggest opening of the year in that market so far. The film also did well in Mexico with $8.26 million on 3,131 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $15.84 million.
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Transformers: Age of Extinction remained in first place with $95.8 million in 37 markets over the weekend for totals of $400.9 million internationally and $576.3 million worldwide. Its best market remains China, where it added $120.61 million for the full week giving it a total of $222.74 million after two. These numbers are important for two reasons. Firstly, revised totals in China put the film's opening there ahead of its debut in North America. Stunning. Secondly, the film is already ahead of Avatar's final figure in that market. Granted, it's barely above Avatar's pace, as that film pulled in $221.9 million after ten days of release, but that is still great news. It held up better than most films do in South Korea earning $8.05 million on 1,096 screens over the weekend for a total of $34.62 million. In Russia, the film added $7.04 million on 2,171 screens over the weekend for a total of $35.38 million after two. The last major market was Australia, where it pulled in $4.54 million on 623 screens over the weekend for a two-week total of $17.32 million.
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Transformers: Age of Extinction earned top spot on the international chart with $201.3 million on 10,015 screens in 37 markets. This includes a record $99.81 million opening in China, which is basically a rounding error away from its North American debut. It also broke the record in Russia with $21.23 million on 2,171 screens. Its opening in South Korea was nearly identical with $15.88 million on 1,597 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $21.98 million. The final major market of the weekend was Australia, where it pulled in $8.30 million on 623 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $9.56 million. The film likely cost about $300 million to make and advertise, so it still needs work to break even, but this is an amazing start.
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Maleficent rose to first place with $47.9 million in 54 markets for totals of $340.8 million internationally and $526.7 million worldwide. It became the first live-action film in Angelina Jolie's career to reach the $500 million mark. The film opened in first place in China with $22.01 million. Up next for the film is Japan and if it does well there, it could top Kung Fu Panda 2 as Angelina Jolie's biggest hit.
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There were three films that were in a virtual tie for top spot on the international top ten. Godzilla squeaked out a win with $38.4 million in 62 markets for totals of $248.7 million internationally and $440.2 million worldwide after a month of release. This includes a $37.00 million opening weekend in China. Needless to say, it earned first place in that market. The film finishes its international run in Japan at the end of July and it should jump over $500 million worldwide when it does.
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Edge of Tomorrow rose to first place with $82 million in 63 markets for a two-week total of $111 million. This includes a first-place, $25.68 million opening in China. It also opened in first place in South Korea with $10.52 million on 801 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $16.28 million. In Russia, the film opened on top spot with $7.41 million on 1,649, while in France it also earned first place, but with just $2.82 million on 585. It only managed second place in Australia with $2.88 million on 477 screens, while it could do no better than third place in Mexico with $2.88 million on 1,301 screens over the weekend for a total of $3.19 million. Its best holdover was in the U.K. where it added $2.08 million on 460 screens for a two-week total of $7.21 million.

Maleficent opened on top of the international chart with $106.1 million in 47 markets, making it the latest movie to open with more than $100 million on the international chart. The film opened in a number of major markets, but individual results were mixed. The film opened in first place in Mexico with $14.05 million on 2,892 screens and in Russia with $13.06 million on 1,733 screens. In the U.K. it pulled in $11.04 million on 486 screens. It didn't crack $10 million, but did earn first place in Italy ($5.87 million on 650 screens); in Brazil ($5.63 million on 452); and in Germany ($4.87 million on 525 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $5.26 million); and Spain ($4.29 million on 625). It had to settle for second place in Australia with $3.76 million on 530 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $3.90 million. It only managed third place in France ($5.01 million on 550 screens) and in South Korea ($3.38 million on 631 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $3.81 million). The film has yet to open in China and Japan and given this start, it should reach $500 million worldwide before it is done.
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X-Men: Days of Future Past dominated the international box office chart with $171.08 million in 71 markets for a total opening of $191.00 million. This includes China, where it earned first place with $39.35 million on 6,000 screens. It also earned first place in the U.K. with $15.39 million on 537 screens, while in South Korea it earned $11.78 million on 1,056 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $14.15 million. Mexico contributed $9.39 million on 3,034 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $11.02 million. The film's debut in Russia was very similar with $9.90 million on 2,230 screens. France was right behind with $9.29 million on 620 screens, while in Brazil it pulled in $8.38 million on 507. The film earned $7.80 million on 684 screens in Australia. It struggled a little more in Germany and Spain with $4.03 million on 579 screens and $3.19 million on 650 respectively.
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Godzilla got off to a milestone start on the international market earning $103.0 million on 16,946 screens in 64 markets during its first weekend of release. It was able to dominate the box office thanks to a string of first place finishes in most of the major markets. Its biggest market was the U.K., where the film pulled in $10.73 million on 550 screens, while Russia was close behind with $8.65 million on 1,814 screens. The film was surprisingly strong in Mexico, pulling in $7.21 million on 2,494 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $8.57 million. It was also strong in Australia with $6.34 million on 498 screens and in France with $5.73 million on 596. The film earned $4.97 million on 584 screens over the weekend in Germany for a total opening in that market of $5.50 million. Brazil was a strong market for Godzilla, as it opened with $4.07 million on 417 screens there. The film's opening in South Korea was nearly the same with $3.65 million on 610 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $4.37 million. Italy was next with $3.55 million on 692 screens. Finally, the film was soft in Spain with an opening of $1.29 million on 427 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $1.55 million, but this was still enough for first place there. Overall, it wasn't as strong internationally as it was domestically, relative to the size of the markets, but it is still on pace to break even before it reaches the home market.
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The Amazing Spider-Man 2 remained in first place, but saw its weekend box office haul fall to $71.33 million on 26,694 screens in 91 markets. Its international box office rose to $404.72 million and worldwide it has made $550.93 million. The film will need to make about $200 million to $250 million more at the worldwide box office to break even, which is doable. The film had its first full week in China pulling in $46.45 million over the week for a total of $56.38 million in that market.
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The Amazing Spider-Man 2 saw its weekend box office haul explode with $117.38 million on 30,460 screens in 41 markets for totals of $278.23 million internationally and $369.84 million worldwide. The film opened in first place in Brazil with $11.06 million on 1,139 screens and in second place in France with $11.03 million on 837. It broke the record for biggest Hollywood debut in India with $6.9 million on 1,523 screens. The film also opened in China, on Sunday, with $9.9 million on 11,031 screens, which was a record for an opening Sunday.
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The Amazing Spider-Man 2 rose to first place on the international chart with $67.34 million on 14,587 screens for a two-week total of $132.15 million. This week's new openings included South Korea, where the film dominated with $10.84 million on 1,472 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $13.85 million. This is on par with The Amazing Spider-Man. It also earned first place in Russia with $9.34 million on 1,779 screens, which is also about on par with the first film. In Japan, it only managed fourth with $4.11 million on 763 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $5.11 million, which is less than half of the opening of the first film. On the other hand, it was stronger in Italy with $5.71 million on 811 screens over the weekend for a total of $6.58 million. It added $5.66 million on 1,566 screens over the weekend for a total of $27.77 million in the U.K., which again is about on par with The Amazing Spider-Man.
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April ended with a new film on top, The Other Woman, which finally broke Captain America: The Winter Soldier's hold on the box office chart. It was a surprisingly strong hit earning $24.76 million, but the other new releases were not as strong. Brick Mansions only managed fifth place, while The Quiet Ones missed the Mendoza Line. The overall box office was $115 million, which was 13% lower than last weekend. More importantly, this is 25% more than the same weekend last year. 2014 added to its lead over 2013, which now stands at $257 million, or 9.2%. Its running tally is $3.05 billion and summer is just about to start.
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Rio 2 remained in first place, barely, with $47.1 million in 65 markets for an international total of $200.9 million and a worldwide total of $276.0 million after a month of release. This includes a second place opening in Italy where it pulled in $2.17 million on 711 screens. This is again weaker than its predecessor's opening there. The film earned $12.05 million in China, but that was for the full week, pushing its total to $25.01 million after two. The first film barely played in China, so this is a boost to its international numbers, but I don't think it will be enough to match what the original movie made.
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Rio 2 raced to first place with $63.5 million on 20,008 screens in 65 markets for a total of $125.6 million after four weeks of release. This includes a first place debut in Mexico, where it earned $8.42 million on 2,627 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $8.97 million. This is about $3 million more than the first film's debut there. It also earned first place in Australia with $2.09 million on 278 screens, although this is weaker than its predecessor. It is still too soon to tell where it will finish internationally, as it has been doing better in some markets, but worse in others, when compared to Rio. That said, I think the studio should be happy overall.
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Captain America: The Winter Soldier remained in first place on the international chart with $109.8 million in 50 markets for a two week total of $209.4 million internationally and $304.4 million worldwide. The Winter Soldier is already ahead of the first Captain America internationally, and by this time next week, it will have $500 million worldwide, about 30% more than its predecessor's final figure. This week, the film opened in first place in a trio of major markets, led by China where it earned $36.23 million, which is just over $20 million more than the first film finished with in that market. Russia was next with an opening of $7.79 million on 1,685, or $1 million lower than the first film's final tally there. Finally there was Australia, where the film opened with $5.91 million, which is about 20% more than its predecessor opened with. As far as holdovers go, the film added $4.64 million in the U.K. for a total of $18.31 million there, which is already ahead of the first film's total.
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Captain America: The Winter Soldier started its international run a week earlier than its domestic run and it started out really well. It earned first place with $75.2 million in 32 markets. This includes a number of major markets, led by the U.K. with $10.05 million on 535 screens. By comparison, the first Captain America made $14.75 million in the U.K., in total, including a $4.90 million start. It also cracked $10 million in South Korea with $8.89 million on 1,268 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $10.99 million. The first film made $3.81 million in South Korea in total. The Winter Soldier also opened in Mexico, earning $8.60 million on 2,681, which was a little bit above its predecessor opening. It is too soon to tell if it will reach $20 million, like The First Avenger did. The first film made $10.28 million in France in total, while this film opened with $6.06 million on 664 screens. In Germany, the film only managed $3.66 million on 626 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $3.99 million, compared to $4.81 million the original made in total. It had a near identical opening in Italy with $3.60 million on 648 screens over the weekend, for a total opening of $4.06 million. This is close to half of the $8.60 million the first film made in total in that market. On the other hand, the film had to settle for second place in Spain with $2.93 million in 709 screens, which is just a little bit more than the $2.54 million the original opened with. As you can tell, The Winter Soldier topped The First Avenger's opening in every major market. It topped its predecessor's total in one major market. This is an amazing start and with several major markets left ahead of it, an international total of $300 million is a reasonable goal.
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Need for Speed remained in first place on the international chart with $29.2 million in 55 markets for a two-week total of $96.1 million. This includes $10.5 million over the weekend in China, and $24.22 million for the full week. After two weeks of release, the film has $45.54 million in that one market. The film opened in first place in Germany with $2.91 million on 455 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $3.06 million. The film opens in Spain and France, among other markets, in April, while by the time it debuts in Japan, it might have covered its production budget internationally.
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Need for Speed performed a lot better internationally than it did domestically earning first place with $45.6 million in 40 markets. Unfortunately, $21.09 million was earned during its opening weekend in China. I say unfortunately, because studios only get about 20% of the box office haul in that market, compared to 40% in most other international markets and 60% domestically. It also earned first place in Russia with $5.84 million on 1,050 screens and in the U.K., with $3.35 million on 469. The surprise result came in Malaysia where it earned $1.89 million on 184 screens. On the other hand, the film had a trio of third place debuts in Australia ($1.38 million on 457 screens); Brazil ($1.29 on 335); and Italy ($1.07 million on 426). The film opens in Germany this weekend, while it doesn't open in Japan till June. It likely topped its production budget worldwide by Monday, so as long as its legs are not really short, it should break even sometime on the home market.
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The weekend box office didn't shake out as expected with the new films failing to live up to the low end of predictions. Need for Speed didn't earn first place, in fact, it only managed third place. Tyler Perry's Single Mothers Club barely managed fifth place and was the worst opening for Tyler Perry in his directing career. On the positive side, Mr. Peabody and Sherman held on better than expected allowing it to rise to first place. The overall box office sank compared to last weekend, down 21% to $114 million. This is still above last year's box office total by 6%. Year-to-date, 2014 has pulled in almost $2.00 billion, which is 11% ahead of 2013's pace.
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It's a good week / bad week on the home market. The good news is there are four films coming out this week that earned some level of Awards Season buzz. The bad news... there are four films coming out this week that earned some level of Awards Season buzz and they scared away the competition. Two of those four films are strong enough to be contenders for Pick of the Week, Frozen on DVD or Blu-ray Combo Pack and American Hustle on DVD or Blu-ray Combo Pack. Unfortunately, I'm still waiting for the screeners for both of those movies, so I'm not sure which of those two is the Pick of the Week. Fortunately, the screener for 12 Years a Slave arrived and the Blu-ray is Pick of the Week material.
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300: Rise of an Empire dominated the international box office earning first place with $87.8 million on 14,478 screens in 58 markets during its opening weekend of release. The film earned first place in Russia with $8.43 million on 1,441 screens. It only managed second place in France, but with a still strong $6.08 million on 454 screens. It also had a string of first place finishes in a number of other major markets, including South Korea where it made $5.49 million on 720 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $6.42 million. Brazil was next with an opening of $5.64 million on 869 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $5.92 million, while Mexico was close behind with $5.47 million on 2,048. Germany took in $4.75 million on 580 screens over the weekend for a very healthy debut of $5.23 million. The U.K. earned a similar result with $4.62 million on 487, but that is one of the weaker results given the size of the market. Other major markets include Spain ($3.69 million on 710 screens); Italy ($3.33 million on 580); and Australia ($2.91 million on 467). The film has yet to open in China and Japan, but given its start in these markets, it hardly matters how well in does in those.
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The box office weekend was a little stronger than expected with 300: Rise of an Empire earning $45 million while Mr. Peabody and Sherman earned $32 million. Overall the box office pulled in $143 million, which was 17% more than last weekend. It was also 2% more than the same weekend last year. Granted, that's not a lot. In fact, it is probably less than ticket price inflation. Then again, any win, even a close win, is amazing since we were up against Oz the Great and Powerful's massive opening last year. Year-to-date, 2014 has amassed $1.84 billion, putting it 11% ahead of 2013, which had earned $1.65 million by this point in the year. It won't be long till 2014 hits $2 billion and there are some pretty big hits coming out this summer to look forward to.
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There are two wide releases this week, 300: Rise of an Empire and Mr. Peabody and Sherman. Mr. Peabody and Sherman is opening in nearly 4,000 theaters and is earning better reviews, but 300: Rise of an Empire will likely open faster at the box office. The three holdovers in the top five, Non-Stop, Son of God, and The LEGO Movie, should also do well earning more than $10 million each over the weekend, so overall the box office should be strong. Unfortunately, this weekend last year, Oz the Great and Powerful earned just shy of $80 million over the weekend. There's no way either new release will match that. In fact, it is likely both new releases combined won't match that. 2014's winning streak will end, but not to panic, it still has a large lead and while March doesn't look great, April should be better.
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RoboCop debuted in China this past weekend and that helped it climb into first place internationally with $30.2 million in 75 markets for a total of $136.0 million internationally after a month of release. The film opened in top spot in China over the weekend with $20.67 million. The film also remained in first place in Brazil with $2.4 million on 756 screens over the weekend for a total of $7.3 million after two.
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The Oscars are being handed out this evening and as usual, we will be live-blogging the event. Here's the last look at the nominations with those chosen by our contest entrants as the likely winners in Bold. If I disagree with the consensus, they are in italics, and sharp-eyed readers will note there are no categories where that's true. Finally, if I am rooting for an underdog, they are underlined. There are only two categories where that is true. I want Chiwetel Ejiofor to win Best Lead Actor for his performance in 12 Years a Slave. I also want Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa to win for Best Hair and Make-up, because Dallas Buyers Club had a hair and make-up budget of $250. Yes it was effective, but the special effects make-up used in Bad Grandpa was just more difficult to pull off, even if the movie wasn't Oscar-bait. Regardless, I don't expect there to be many surprises at this year's awards.
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The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug is nearly finished its international run and this week it debuted in China where it earned first place with 33.04 million 5,500 screens. The film is also playing in nine other markets, where it earned about $100,000 for a total weekend haul of $33.1 million. This lifts its totals to $637.1 million internationally and $893.7 million worldwide. The film opens in Japan this weekend and if it does well there, it could reach $1 billion worldwide.
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The LEGO Movie completed the threepeat in a dominating fashion earning more than 3 Days to Kill and Pompeii earned combined. On the other hand, neither of those films were that impressive, so beating both of them might not seem like a real accomplishment. The overall box office took a tumble, which is expected for a post-holiday weekend, but it still fell a little more than I would like, down 37% to $111 million. This is 7% more than the same weekend last year, so 2014 continued its winning ways in the year-over-year race. In fact, 2014 extended its lead to $150 million or 11% and now leads 2013 by a $1.51 billion to $1.36 billion.
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The LEGO Movie will see off two more challengers for box office supremacy this weekend, according to studio estimates released on Sunday. 3 Days to Kill will open with $12.3 million, soft for a film that cost $28 million, while Pompeii will barely reach $10 million, disastrous for a film that cost $80 million or $100 million, depending on who you talk to. That leaves The LEGO Movie miles ahead, with a projected $31.4 million for the weekend and $183 million or so in the bank after 17 days in release. It'll be down 37% from last weekend—an impressive result considering last weekend was a holiday.
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Box office powerhouse Frozen has propelled head of Disney Animation (and Pixar) John Lasseter into 11th place in The Numbers Bankability Index for February. The Index measures the value people generate in the industry, and Lasseter certainly deserves his place towards the top of the chart, having built Pixar into an animation powerhouse, and rebuilt Disney's in-house animation studio so effectively that it's close to knocking Pixar off its perch as the industry leader.
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RoboCop rose to first place with $35 million in 37 markets for a total of $70.28 million after three weeks of release. The film's biggest opening came from Russia where it earned first place with $5.72 million in 1,153 screens. It opened in second place in Mexico with $2.90 million on 564. It earned third place in South Korea with $3.67 million on 635 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $4.31 million. It slipped to third place in the U.K. with $2.53 million on 436 screens for a two-week total of $8.16 million.
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It's looking like a healthy President's Day weekend at the box office, with one impressive debut and several movies enjoying strong second, fourth, and even thirteenth weekends. The champion opener is About Last Night, a remake of the 1986 hit, which will open with about $27 million over three days, helped by a big $13 million Valentine's Day. With the film playing in only 2,253 theaters, that represents a terrific $12,000 theater average, and continues Kevin Hart's hot streak. Handily beating About Last Night at the top of the chart, though, is The LEGO Movie, with a projected $48.8 million over three days, and around $60 million over the full four-day weekend. That's down a decent 29% from last weekend, for a theater average of almost $13,000.
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With our annual Oscar Prediction contest underway, now is the best time to look at the nominees and try and figure out who the favorites are and which films should just feel honored to be nominated. Today we look at Best Animated Feature Film, which looked like it would be competitive for most of the year, then Frozen came out and instantly became the favorite. Is it the favorite? Or is there a dark horse out there?
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Frozen continues its impressive run earning first place with $24.0 million in 47 markets for totals of $545.1 million internationally and $913.7 million worldwide. It became the 28th film to reach that level and has already overtaken Finding Nemo for 27th place. The film opened in China with $14.11 million over the weekend, which was enough for third place over the weekend, which is good, but not amazing. On the other hand, it fell just 30% in South Korea adding $8.93 million on 1,375 screens over the weekend, lifting its total to $58.04 million after four weeks of release. At this pace, it should catch up to Despicable Me 2 in a couple of weeks, and depending on how it does in Japan, it could reach $1 billion worldwide.
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The LEGO Movie didn't break the record for Biggest February Weekend, but it came close. The Monuments Men performed better than expected, but was still a very distant second place. On the other hand, Vampire Academy bombed, fully and completely. Compared to last week, even without The LEGO Movie, this week is almost better. With The LEGO Movie, this week is 76% better at $151 million. Compared to last year, The LEGO Movie opened with more than the top five made in 2013. Overall, the year-over-year growth was 46%. This is just a fantastic result no matter how you look at it. Year-to-date, 2014 has pulled in $1.12 billion, putting it 12% ahead of 2013's pace. It is obviously still too early to declare 2014 the winner, but this is still a fantastic start.
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The first weekend of February should be the biggest with The LEGO Movie looking to dominate the box office, while The Monuments Men is expected to do respectable business over the weekend. The other wide release is Vampire Academy, which wasn't screened for critics. It is not aimed at a target demographic that cares about what critics think, but they still didn't screen the film for critics. This weekend last year, there were two wide releases, Identity Thief and Side Effects. The two films earned a combined $44 million during their opening weekend. The LEGO Movie will make more than that on its own. 2014 should easily win in the year-over-year competition.
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It's Chinese New Year and the international box office was led by two Chinese films. The Monkey King earned first place with $46 million in 7 markets for a total opening of $54 million. Like most Chinese films, we don't have breakdowns of individual markets.
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Super Bowl turned into a blow-out, but still earned a record television audience. This explains why the overall box office numbers were down compared to last weekend. That said, there were some films that did well, including Ride Along, which completed the threepeat and by this time next week with be at over $100 million. On the other hand, the new releases really struggled. That Awkward Moment only managed third place, while Labor Day barely avoided the Mendoza Line. Week-over-week, the overall box office fell 26% to $86 million. Compared to last year, the box office also fell, but by only 3%. That said, 2014 is still ahead of 2013 by 6% at $943 million to $887 million, so the market is still healthy.
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With distributors aiming for counter-programming over Super Bowl weekend, Ride Along will win this weekend fairly comfortably, according to estimates released on Sunday. Universal is projecting a $12.3 million weekend, down 42% from last time, and a cume by Monday morning of nearly $93 million. That should set the film up to cross $100 million in the next week, and makes it a rare winner of 3 weekends in a row. Second place is a toss-up between Frozen and That Awkward Moment, although Disney is laying claim to the prize right now with $9.3 million projected, up 2% from last weekend thanks to a new sing-along version of Frozen introduced to theaters on Friday.
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It's the Super Bowl weekend, so needless to say, the new releases are looking rather weak. Why would any studio want to release a film against what is the largest single sporting event of the year? There are two wide releases coming out, but neither is expected to make much of an impact. That Awkward Moment is the bigger of the two wide releases, but its reviews are terrible. It should still earn first place, because there's no competition to speak of. Labor Day's reviews are slightly better and its target demographic has very little crossover appeal with the Super Bowl. Even so, most think it will miss the top five. This weekend last year, Warm Bodies earned first place with just over $20 million. If That Awkward Moment earns $20 million, I will be shocked. It might not earn too much more than half of that.
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The Wolf of Wall Street remained in first place with $35.27 million on 5,472 screens in 40 markets for an international total of $125.49 million. This is already substantially more than the film has pulled in domestically, plus it has a number of major market debuts ahead. This past weekend, the film opened in first place in Australia with $4.46 million on 325 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $4.68 million. Meanwhile, it remained in first place in the U.K. with $5.95 million on 506 screens over the weekend for a total of $17.94 million after two weeks of release. It had a very similar weekend at the box office in Germany with $5.49 million on 597 screens, while it is $14.11 million in that market, also after two weeks of release.
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I, Frankenstein died at the box office, as it missed the top five entirely. This gave Ride Along an easy road to first place over the weekend. Meanwhile, the rest of the top five all matched expectations, or came within a rounding error of doing so. This helped the overall box office somewhat. It was still a post-holiday frame and the total box office fell 34% to $117 million, but it could have been worse. Compared to last year, the overall box office was 4% higher, which is good news early in the year. 2014 has extended its lead over 2013 to 9% at $823 million to $754 million.
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After tracking poorly for months, Lionsgate's I, Frankenstein arrived in theaters this weekend with a disappointing projected $8.275 million, according to the distributor, enough for only 6th place on a box office chart that's a jumble of Oscar hopefuls and less ambitious January fare. Ride Along tops the list with $21.1 million projected for the weekend by Universal, which also lays claim to this weekend's number two spot with Lone Survivor's $12.6 million.
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After a record-breaking weekend, it's a letdown this weekend. I, Frankenstein is the only wide release of the week and there's very little chance it will be a major hit at the box office. It might overtake Ride Along for top spot, but I wouldn't bet on it. Last yearHansel & Gretel: Witch Hunters was the biggest release of the week earning $19.69 million over the weekend, while it and Mama were the only two films to earn more than $10 million. We should have four films earning more than $10 million over the weekend, so 2014 should win in the year-over-year comparison.
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The Wolf of Wall Street rocketed from fifth place to first place with $32.84 million in 4,446 screens in 36 markets for an international total of $80.86 million over four weeks of release. The film opened in first place in the U.K. with $7.65 million on 500 screens, while in Germany it earned first place with $6.66 million on 502 screens. Meanwhile, it made $3.62 million on 327 screens in Spain, earning first place in that market as well.
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It was a record-breaking weekend with Ride Along earning the biggest January opening weekend and the biggest MLK long weekend. Needless to say, it crushed expectations. Additionally, The Nut Job overcame terrible reviews to earn a solid opening, at least according to estimates. Overall, the box office pulled in $176 million over the three-day weekend, which is 26% more than the three-day weekend last week and last year. Over the four-day weekend, the box office pulled in $211 million, or 28% more than last year's MLK long weekend. That's great news, as 2014 was below 2013's pace. In fact, after this weekend, 2014 has pulled ahead of 2013 by 8% at $671 million to $621 million.
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Producers Guild of America announce the winners tonight, but it seems I forgot to upload the story when they announced their nominations. In my defense, they announced them on January 2nd. You don't make an announcement on January 2nd, not unless you are trying to bury a story. As for the actual nominations, there are very few differences between this group and others, except when it comes to documentaries. Then again, that's been the norm this year. No one seems to agree on what the best documentaries were.
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At the beginning of the month, I thought this weekend would be a close race between Jack Ryan: Shadow Recruit and Ride Along. That might still be the case, but it is increasingly unlikely, as Jack Ryan's buzz hasn't kept pace with the buzz for Ride Along. Additionally, Jack Ryan has direct competition from Lone Survivor, which nearly set the January record last weekend and should remain potent this weekend. This weekend last year, Mama won the weekend with $28.40 million and I don't think Ride Along will top that. On the other hand, last year there were only three films that topped $10 million, while this year there could be as many as seven or eight. (All four wide releases have a shot at $10 million, but it is likely not all will get there. There are two holdovers that will earn more than $10 million. Finally, American Hustle and The Wolf of Wall Street might get an Oscar bounce back to $10 million.) Even in the worst case scenario, four films will crack $10 million. 2014 should win for the first time in the week-over-week comparison.
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The Oscar nominations were announced this morning and there are some surprises mixed in with the predictable results. Gravity and American Hustle led the way with ten nominations each while 12 Years a Slave was right behind with nine. The fact that 12 Years a Slave wasn't the leader is the first of the surprises.
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After being in second place for a long time, Frozen finally scored first place with $27.8 million in 50 markets for totals of $394.6 million internationally and $711.9 million worldwide. The film had no major market openings this past weekend, but it opens this weekend in South Korea and in Japan in March.
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As expected, Lone Survivor won the race to first place on the box office this past weekend. However, it crushed predictions to an astounding degree. It wasn't enough. The overall box office was down to $140 million. Granted, that was less than 1% lower than last weekend and just over 1% lower than the same weekend last year, but it is still frustrating. Besides the number one film, there's not a lot of positive news to report. Year-to-date, 2014 is a little behind 2013 at $413 million to $436 million. Granted, it is far too soon to talk about end of year results, but you obviously would want a fast start rather than a slow start.
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Hollywood Foreign Press Association handed out the Golden Globe awards last night, and there were a few surprises in the mix. American Hustle led the way with three wins, which isn't a real surprise, but I think many thought another film would lead with three or more wins. The only other film to earn more than one award was Dallas Buyers Club at just two. That might give you a hint at what the big surprise was.
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2014 has its first bona fide hit this weekend, with Lone Survivor posting an impressive $38.5 million, according to Universal's weekend estimate. That's the fifth-best January weekend in history, and the second-best by a film that wasn't already playing wide over the holidays (Avatar holds the top three spots in the chart and Cloverfield remains the record-holding new release). Unfortunately, the success of Lone Survivor was in part to blame for a weak debut by The Legend of Hercules, which will end in 4th or 5th place for the weekend.
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There is only one truly new wide release this weekend: The Legend of Hercules. This film is earning zero positive reviews and most analysts think it will miss the top five. Fortunately, there are a couple of limited releases expanding wide this weekend that should help compensate. Lone Survivor is the most obviously mainstream hit and it has been doing surprisingly well in limited release. Meanwhile, Her is probably too out there to be a mainstream hit, but its reviews suggest it should at least do well with those looking for Oscar-quality films. This weekend last year was the weekend Zero Dark Thirty expanded wide. It pulled in $24.44 million over the weekend, which is a figure Lone Survivor might match. Unfortunately for 2014, 2013 had much better depth at the box office, so even if the Lone Survivor does get to $25 million or beyond, it still looks like the year will continue lower than last year.
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The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug began 2014 the same way it ended 2013, on top. This weekend it pulled in $58 million in 62 markets for totals of $527 million internationally and $756 million worldwide. The film had no major market openings this past weekend, but did remain in fourth place in Russia with $9.6 million on 1,378 screens for a total of $42 million after three weeks of release. It was able to remain in top spot in Germany for the fourth weekend in a row with $8.6 million on 1,40 screens for a total of $75.1 million there. Granted, the film won't match An Unexpected Journey's debut, but it will end its run with well over $800 million worldwide, possibly even $900 million worldwide. There's no way to look at that figure and not call the movie a smashing success.
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The box office wasn't as boisterous as anticipated and this is partially due to the seasonal storm that hit the east coast. This is also partially due to weaker than expected numbers for Paranormal Activity: The Marked Ones, which only managed second place in its debut. This allowed Frozen to return to top spot on the chart, even though it was a little weaker than expected. The overall box office fell 27% from last weekend down to $141 million. Compared to last year, the box office was down 4%, which isn't a good result, but it is also not terrible. Had The Marked Ones merely matched expectations, it would have been a virtual tie.
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Given the weather conditions in half the country, this weekend couldn't have a more appropriate winner at the box office. Disney's Frozen takes top honors again in its 7th weekend in release after previously topping the chart the weekend of December 6th. The film is projected to earn $20.72 million this weekend, making it only the fourth film ever to earn more than $20 million at this stage in its theatrical run. Avatar, Titanic and Home Alone are the other three (and see full list of 7th weekends here). Paranormal Activity: The Marked Ones was pushed into second spot with a decent $18.2 million opening.
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Paranormal Activity: The Marked Ones is the only wide release opening on the first weekend of the year. The long running franchise will have to battle a weaker release date, franchise fatigue, and several holdovers that are still going strong. It still has a good shot at first place, as does Frozen. Frozen could win the weekend, with the help of families going out to the movies one last time before school starts again. The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug probably won't extend its winning streak, but it should still be pull in quite a bit of money over the weekend. Last year the year started with Texas Chainsaw 3D earning more than $20 million. Django Unchained also topped $20 million over the weekend, albeit by the tiniest margin. We might have two $20 million films this weekend as well, with as many as five additional films earning more than $10 million. If 2014 doesn't win in the year-over-year comparison, it should at least be close.
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As it has the past couple of weeks, The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug topped the international chart earning $99.7 million on 15,782 screens in 61 markets for totals of $424.8 million internationally and $615.1 million worldwide. The film opened in Australia on Boxing Day, but due to the holidays earning first place with a total opening of $12.9 million on 629 screens; however, this was a little behind An Unexpected Journey's debut there. On the other hand, the film set the record for biggest total opening in Poland with $5.6 million on 425 screens.
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Some studios are still closed and won't open till this time next week, so we won't have all of the final numbers for the past two weeks till then. We do have some final numbers, as well as some studio estimates that we can look at now. As for the upcoming week, it will look a lot like last week in terms of stories. We won't have a per theater chart, we might have an international top ten, while prediction, contest, and limited releases will be mostly normal. We might even have a review this weekend. (That's assuming some of the late screeners finally arrive, because at the moment I have nothing to review.)
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It's the final weekend of the year and there are a lot of films fighting for spots in the top five, including five films that opened on Christmas Day. Unfortunately for those films, it looks like The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug will remain in first place for the third weekend in a row. The Wolf of Wall Street will likely be the biggest of the five new releases, but it is unlikely that it will have a shot at first place; it might only finish fifth. The other new releases are even weaker. Last year there were only three new releases for the final weekend of the year, but none of them bombed, so 2013 might end on a low note. 2013 should still win in the year-over-year comparison, but losing on the final weekend of the year is a bad sign for 2014's debut.
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The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug was the biggest draw on the international chart last weekend adding $97.4 million on 16,840 screens in 56 markets for totals of $278.4 million internationally and $406.0 million worldwide after just two weeks of release. This includes a first place debut in Russia where it made $16.36 million on 2,125 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $19.11 million. This is more or less the same as the first film opened with. (An Unexpected Journey didn't open on Wednesday, but made $17.89 million on 2,128 screens during its three-day opening weekend.)
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The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug opened in first place on the international chart with $135.4 million on 16,405 screens in 49 markets. This includes a trio of markets where it topped $10 million. Germany led the way with $19.00 million on 874 screens, compared to $15.01 million earned by the previous film. The U.K. contributed $15.20 million on 580 screens, but that wasn't as strong as the $18.77 million earned by the first installment. France was third with $13.38 million on 909 screens, up from $11.12 million. It also placed first in a number of other major markets with Spain bringing in $7.05 million on 859 screens. It earned $6.24 million on 809 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $7.25 million. Mexico was up next with $5.07 million on 2,615 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $5.96 million. Italy and Brazil earned nearly identical results with $4.97 million on 720 screens and $4.86 million on 1,039 respectively.
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American Hustle started its box office run in limited release with a stunning average of $123,409. This is the second best per theater average for the year, behind only Frozen. Saving Mr. Banks opened in 15 theaters earning an average of $27,558. It should do well in its upcoming expansion. Inside Llewyn Davis expanded, playing in 15 theaters over the weekend while its per theater average fell to $23,786. It will continue to expand. The overall box office leader, The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug, was the final film in the $10,000 club earning an average of $18,869.
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It's a good news / bad news weekend at the box office. The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug earned first place with ease earning the fourth biggest December opening weekend of all time. On the other hand, it was a little weaker than expected opening on the low end of predictions. Tyler Perry's A Madea Christmas also underperformed by a significant degree, which didn't help the overall box office. The overall box office rose 59% to $147 million, which seems like a huge amount, till you realize last weekend was the weekend after Thanksgiving, which is historically one of the worst weekends of the year. If there wasn't a massive jump at the box office, it would have been fatal for the month. This was also higher than the same weekend last year, albeit by a smaller margin of 6%. Year-to-date, 2013 is still ahead of 2012, but by less than 0.5% at $9.90 million to $9.85 million.
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Hollywood Foreign Press Association announced their Golden Globe nominations this week, and a clear picture is forming. 12 Years a Slave was again the recipient of the most nominations, but this time it was a tie, as it and American Hustle both grabbed seven nominations. If you look down the list of other multi-nominated films, you will find a number of familiar faces.
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There are four noteworthy releases this week, although a couple of them are opening in limited release and expanding wide over the next couple of weeks. The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug expected to be the biggest hit of the month, but not as big as An Unexpected Journey. Meanwhile Tyler Perry's A Madea Christmas should be solid as counter-programming and better legs than most Tyler Perry. This weekend last year, An Unexpected Journey opened with $84.62 million. Most expect The Desolation of Smaug to miss that figure, perhaps by more than $10 million. However, the second best film last year was Rise of the Guardians, which only made $7.14 million. 2013 likely won't be as strong at the top, but it will certainly have better depth.
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The Hunger Games: Catching Fire again earned first place on the international chart, this week pulling in $42.9 million in 83 markets for a total of $340.6 million internationally and $676.5 million worldwide. The film had no major market openings this past weekend, not unless you count India, where the film made $703,000 on 613 screens. The film has already surpassed its predecessor and it has yet to open in Japan. $800 million worldwide is the current target, which is more than enough to cover this film's combined production and P&A budgets, and possibly the combined budgets for the next next two movies as well.
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Inside Llewyn Davis had an incredible opening earning more than $400,000 in four theaters for a per theater average of $101,353. This is the third best per theater for the year behind just Frozen and Blue Jasmine. Mandela Long Walk to Freedom had a strong hold with an average of $19,413 in four theaters. The reason for this is obvious, but a little ghoulish to talk about.
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As expected, the box office was really soft this weekend with Frozen rising to the top with over $30 million. It was the only film that earned more than that amount, while The Hunger Games: Catching Fire was the only other film with significantly more than $5 million. Out of the Furnace was the only new release and while it barely topped $5 million, it still managed third place. The overall box office fell from 56% to just $92 million. As bad as that result is, it is still 15% higher than the same weekend last year. 2013 remains above 2012, albeit by a tiny margin of 0.3% at $9.75 billion to $9.72 billion. It wouldn't take much for 2013 to again lose its lead, so there's a lot to be interested in in the final few weeks of the year.
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The weekend after the Thanksgiving long weekend is nearly always a dead zone for new releases, and that is certainly the case this year. Out of the Furnace is the only wide release this week, but its reviews plummeted compared to the early buzz. It should still reach the top five, but only because it would have to make less than $4 million to earn sixth place or worse. On the positive side, Frozen and The Hunger Games: Catching Fire should finish one-two each earning $30 million or more. By comparison, this weekend last year, the two biggestfilm earned barely more than $10 million. 2013 will easily win the year-over-year comparison.
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The Hunger Games: Catching Fire remained in first place on the international chart with $90.0 million in 79 markets for a total of $272.1 million. To put this into perspective, The Hunger Games finished with $276.5 million, so it is likely the sequel has already topped its predecessor internationally. The film opened in first place in France with $12.11 million on 755 screens. In comparison, The Hunger Games made $14.51 million in total in France, including $3.80 million during its opening weekend. The film also earned top spot in Italy with $5.05 million on 651 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $5.93 million. The original did poorly in that market with $1.29 million during its opening weekend and $3.83 million in total. Holdovers were led by the U.K., where it added $9.04 million on 557 screens over the weekend for a total of $35.36 million, or less than $2 million from its predecessor's total in that market. In Germany, the film pulled in $7.57 million on 670 screens over the weekend for a total of $24.63 million after two. The film film finished with $20.30 million in that market.
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Thanksgiving long weekend set records with both The Hunger Games: Catching Fire and Frozen breaking records for biggest Thanksgiving weekend and biggest Thanksgiving opening respectively. There was also good news for Thor: The Dark World over the weekend, as it topped predictions, and even while the rest of the new releases struggled, to be polite, it was a really impressive weekend. Over the three-day portion of the weekend, the box office pulled in a total of $208 million, which was 8% lower than last weekend. This is actually a very good decline, as the midweek holiday releases took some of the demand for the weekend. This was 82% higher than the same weekend last year, but this is misleading, because this weekend last year was the weekend after Thanksgiving day. 2013 was stronger than last Thanksgiving, but by 0.0456% over the three-day portion. Over fives days, the box office earned $293 million, which was almost exactly 1% more than last Thanksgiving. 2013 has regained the lead over 2012, albeit by a tiny margin at $9.62 billion to $9.61 billion. Hopefully it can maintain this lead from now till January.
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Thanksgiving long weekend won't be remembered for the quality of the films opening wide. In fact, of the three new releases on this week's list, only one of them is truly opening wide. Homefront is debuting in 2,500 theaters, while Black Nativity is only opening in 1,500. Oldboy is only opening in 600 theaters, but it still has a reasonable shot at the top ten. If it weren't for the wide expansion of Frozen and hopefully a strong hold by The Hunger Games: Catching Fire, the weekend would be a write-off. As it is, 2013 should crush 2012... mostly because there is a misalignment and this weekend last year was the weekend after Thanksgiving. The post holiday slump meant the top five was only able to bring in a little under $75 million. I'm not saying Catching Fire will top that number, at least not over three days, but it should clear at least that much over the next five days.
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Frozen begun its short prestige release before its wide expansion on Wednesday and it was fantastic. The film pulled in $243,390 in one theater giving it the best per theater average for the year so far, topping Blue Jasmine and pushing Spring Breakers into third place. The Hunger Games: Catching Fire was in a distant second place with an average of $37,971 in more than 4,000 theaters. Philomena did very well with an average of $32,109 in four theaters. The Great Beauty remained in the $10,000 club with an average of $17,452 in three theaters. Nebraska rounded out the $10,000 club with an average of $11,634 in 28 theaters. It should continue to expand and start hitting major milestones.
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This week's list of limited releases is kind of mixed. Frozen is coming out this week for a prestige opening before expanding wide on Wednesday and it is virtually guaranteed box office success. On the other hand, most of the rest of the films are documentaries, which almost never have breakout success. Every documentary on this list looks interesting, but of the non-Frozen releases, I think Philomena has the best shot at box office success.
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There are three wide releases next week, Black Nativity, Homefront, and Oldboy. Unfortunately none of them are expected to be even midlevel hits. Fortunately, there's one other option, Frozen. Frozen opened in one theater on Friday the 22nd before expanding wide on Wednesday the 27th. Normally we don't like to use films that have already opened, but it is still the best choice for the target film for this week's box office prediction contest. In order to win, one must simply predict the opening weekend box office number for Frozen.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), regardless if they go over or not, will win a copy of Impractical Jokers: Season One on DVD.
Entries must be received by 10 a.m., Pacific Time on Friday to be eligible, so don't delay!
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October ended on a winning note, but it was the only time the entire month that 2013 topped 2012 in the year-over-year comparison. This is quite shocking, as Gravity crushed expectations with more than $200 million and counting. Even with that surprise monster hit, the month still couldn't keep pace with last year. Compared to October, November looks a lot better with three films that could be monster hits: Frozen, Thor: The Dark World, and The Hunger Games: Catching Fire. On the other hand, those are the only three movies with a 50/50 chance or better to top $100 million compared, while there were seven films that reached that milestone last November. The Hunger Games: Catching Fire should make more than last year's number one film, Skyfall, but the depth last year could prove too much to deal with. 2013 might dip below last year's pace sometime during the month, but hopefully it won't stay there too long.
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are available through our research services. For more information, please contact us at research@the-numbers.com.