A closely-watched economic forecast has raised the growth rate for the Scottish economy by 0.1 per cent to 0.8 per cent this year.

The Ernst & Young Scottish ITEM Club has raised the forecast based on an improvement in the economy in the fourth quarter and what it sees as an overall improvement in the global economy.

However, E&Y stress its overall economic forecast is dependent upon sustained growth in both the US economy and wider global economy and the Eurozone remaining intact.

E&Y predict Scotland's economy will grow by 1.4 per cent and return to growth of two per cent in 2015, on a par with pre-recession growth levels.

However, the projected growth rate of 0.8 per cent for Scotland in 2013 is behind the forecast one per cent growth estimated for the UK this year.

This was put down to the sectors predicted to be most in decline – construction and accommodation, mining and food services – accounting for 14 per cent of Scotland's economy compared with 12 per cent for the UK.

Scotland is also reported to have a smaller share of the sectors predicted to grow at the fastest rate – professional and administrative services, transport, storage and communication and retail and wholesale – accounting for just under 28 per cent of the Scottish economy compared with 33 per cent for the UK.

Overall, E&Y said Scottish business is performing largely in line with the UK, though is lagging the UK in retail and wholesale and transport and storage and communication.

Dougie Adams, senior economic adviser to the Ernst & Young Scottish ITEM Club, said: "The hope is that the recovery will really take hold as we move into 2014, but it can't be taken for granted.

"Forecasts on exports and investment remain hostage to developments in Europe where the spectre of widespread defaults still loom.

"Domestically, it still remains to be seen whether a 'wait-and-see' attitude will develop towards Scotland while the country's constitutional future is decided."

E&Y added: "Next year's referendum will put Scotland in the global news. On the grounds that no publicity is bad publicity this could be positive in terms of inward investment.

"However, it must be equally likely that a 'wait and see' mind-set will develop over the next 15 months that will see key decisions by domestic investors postponed and a greater, if temporary, challenge in attracting highly-skilled people to come to work in Scotland."

The ITEM Club report warns Scotland has to expand an export base which has grwon too reliant upon the whisky industry, which now accounts for 28 per cent of total exports compared with 18 per cent a decade ago.

E&Y also warns as a result of slower growth in the Scottish economy the gains in employment will be small at best until the predicted recovery in 2015, adding it would be the end of the decade before before the employment rate returns to pre-recession levels.

A separate study published by KPMG today suggests “majority” of Scottish businesses are more confident about the year ahead.

KPMG's first Scotland Business Instinct Survey of “some of Scotland's largest companies” found 74 per cent of those surveyed expect to report an increase in turnover this year, 73 per cent an increase in profitability, and 46 per cent expect to take on more staff.

The survey, based on responses from 90 of Scotland's largest companies, suggests two thirds (67 per cent) reported a rise in profits last year and around half (51 per cent) added more staff.

KPMG's survey also suggests a higher number of businesses in Scotland expect to see a decrease in sales and profits compared to the rest of the UK, “highlighting the fact some companies are still struggling in their chosen markets” KPMG said.