Tropical Storm Emily degraded into an open tropical wave yesterday afternoon, after Hurricane Hunters could no longer locate a center of circulation at the surface. Through the morning yesterday, the storm appeared to lose most of its strong thunderstorm activity on the north side, and mid-level circulation was broad (tropical cyclones need a tight, coherent circulation to maintain themselves). Soon after the Hurricane Hunters took a pass through the storm, the National Hurricane Center demoted Emily from a tropical storm to a remnant low, while continuing to stress the rainfall threat to Hispaniola and eastern Cuba. Today it appears the center of the remnants are located just north of eastern Cuba in the southern Bahamas, although thunderstorm activity continues across eastern Cuba. Hispaniola probably saw rain and thunderstorms again early this morning, the strongest of which were on the eastern side of the island. New thunderstorm activity is starting to develop in the southeast Bahamas. Given Wednesday's rain gauge analysis from CPC, Hispaniola probably saw at least an additional 5 inches of rain yesterday.

Environmental conditions remain pretty much the same as yesterday, but are expected to become more favorable for Emily's remnants, and redevelopment of the storm is possible. Circulation from the low to mid-levels is still broad and tilting to the east with height due to the lingering moderate westerly wind shear. However, this shear is expected to dissipate some over the next 24 hours, and signs of this are already present to the west of the remnants. The dry air that has been following the storm since its inception has dissipated, as well.

Figure 1. Satellite imagery of the remnants of Tropical Storm Emily as they move northwest away from Cuba and Hispaniola and into the Bahamas.

Forecast for Emily's RemnantsInterestingly, the models have come into better agreement on the forecast for former Emily now that it has lost its surface circulation and degenerated into a tropical wave. The ECMWF, which has come out ahead in this forecasting game so far, is optimistic today that Emily will redevelop. Other global models—GFS, CMC, and FIM—also redevelop the storm. Consensus on timing of redevelopment seems to be when the wave reaches the northern Bahamas in 24 to 48 hours. At 12Z (8am EDT), the high-resolution HWRF model run forecasted a track that was furthest to the west of all the models, scraping eastern Florida as it travels northwest. The most probable track and intensity forecast that I see at this point is north-northwest movement over the next 24 to 36 hours, at which point the system will take a fairly sharp turn to the northeast and out to sea. Without an already established, coherent circulation, it appears unlikely that if Emily is reborn it will intensify into anything more than a moderate tropical storm. However, there is some potential as the system moves out to see that it could gain some strength and develop hurricane-force winds before it transitions into an extra-tropical cyclone.

Typhoon Muifa passes to the south of Okinawa, heads into East China Sea

The center of Typhoon Muifa passed to the south of Okinawa earlier this morning (Eastern time) and it continues to batter the islands with high winds and torrential rain. Local radar estimate rainfall rates as high as 80 mm/hour (approx. 3 inches/hour) in the strongest rain bands. Kadena Air Force Base near the city of Okinawa has been reporting sustained winds of 47 mph with gusts up to 72 mph. Muifa is expected to turn northwest today as it enters the East China Sea as a category 1 on the Saffir-Simpson scale, and then intensify into a category 2 as it passes close to eastern China. This morning, the forecast is that Muifa will probably not make landfall anywhere as a typhoon.

Figure 2. Radar imagery from the Japan Meteorological Agency around 1am JST. Scale is in millimeters. Highest rainfall rates appear to be approximately 3 inches/hour.

South-Central U.S. continues to bake

The extreme heat continues again today after 269 high maximum and 250 high minimum temperature records were set yesterday, 19 and 29 of which were all-time records, respectively. 206 of yesterday's records were 110°F or higher. Yesterday, Reuters was reporting that Texas was one power plant shutdown away from rolling blackouts. The forecast today doesn't look any better. Heat index values up to 125° are forecast in eastern Texas and the Lower Mississippi Valley.

Good evening wunderbloggers. Can someone give me the buoys link. Thank you in advance.Emily is looking better. Convergence and divergence have'd improved since this afternoon and sheer is almost nil. The environment around it have been moistened.Emily is getting ready for diurnal max. Remember weak systems act by this cycles most of the time.

Quoting Daniel101:I live in Fort Lauderdale Beach and my thought is that Emily will continue to regenerate through out the night and start moving in a northwesterly direction. She may become a medium tropical storm (50-60 mph)and will get close enough to the east coast of Florida to give us plenty of rain possibly tropical storm winds or at least gusts. If she remains stationary for a longer time then my thought is she will move more north than west and be more of a threat to the NW Bahamas late Sat and Sunday before heading NE out to sea.

I live in Fort Lauderdale Beach and my thought is that Emily will continue to regenerate through out the night and start moving in a northwesterly direction. She may become a medium tropical storm (50-60 mph)and will get close enough to the east coast of Florida to give us plenty of rain possibly tropical storm winds or at least gusts. If she remains stationary for a longer time then my thought is she will move more north than west and be more of a threat to the NW Bahamas late Sat and Sunday before heading NE out to sea.

Troll or not is irrelevant based on your reasoning behind being a troll. Simply because someone misspells a word does not make them a troll especially if they represent themselves as a foreigner. As someone who just jumped on to look at the latest chatter about the remnants of Emily, I took exception to your reasoning simply based on the fact that a non-English word of origin was misspelled.

If I reacted to quickly based on what I saw then shame on me for an apparent misinterpretation but I find there is a lot of ignorance and hypocrisy out there regarding the fact that English isn't necessarily the universal language across all cultures.

You missed the post where I explained my other reasoning and comments, I suppose? I import from China. The broken English, when it is even apparent in emails and other correspondence is not television style broken English. these were what raised my suspicions as well as his not knowing how to spell Shanghai which is still a good reason to me. He is using the internet, isn't he? I hardly am ignorant nor am I being hypocritical for pointing these things out.

Quoting nymore:KP index of 7 may go to 8 a lot of you people may be able to see the aurora or northern lights. go the the geophysical institute click on the interpreting the aurora then click select a view then select north america and look at kp 7 and see if you will be able to see them. with the index this high it should be quite a show

Thanks for the heads up, I don't think I will get to see it though since I live in FL:(...How is everyone tonight?

Quoting HurricaneDean07:Jrweatherman,glad you have a dream to improve an organization that needs some work(LOL)!

If i were to get in a hurricane forecasting job a would pinpoint toward a NHC job more than a weather channel

Have already looked into CSU,have been commended by Duke university(NC) to take a pre-SAT, i denied it though, i have gotten a commended performance on all my state testings last year... just want to be treated normally... looking into Universities(for the future) and pinpointing some colleges that i would like to look into...

Along sat loop lines (wv loop), the dry air issue present earlier today is retreating as well and it is really moistening up so that is not an issue.....I think it is going to boil down to how well she stacks up tomorrow and wind sheer issues.

Quoting JupiterFL:Every single year the wolf in sheeps clothing routine? Really? Can't you think of something else. You didn't even bother to make your avatar some really hot chinese girl. Getting lazy I guess.

Oh come on. It was a troll. And apparently a good one because he got the board into a frenzy about it which is exactly what a good troll can do.

Troll or not is irrelevant based on your reasoning behind being a troll. Simply because someone misspells a word does not make them a troll especially if they represent themselves as a foreigner. As someone who just jumped on to look at the latest chatter about the remnants of Emily, I took exception to your reasoning simply based on the fact that a non-English word of origin was misspelled.

If I reacted to quickly based on what I saw then shame on me for an apparent misinterpretation but I find there is a lot of ignorance and hypocrisy out there regarding the fact that English isn't necessarily the universal language across all cultures.

Pat, you my friend have been in this blog along with many others on here through thick and thin. from Major hurricanes hitting the US, to dormant hurricane seasons, through all of my time that ive lurked in this Blog(2006-2007).

Quoting HurricaneDean07:Jrweatherman,glad you have a dream to improve an organization that needs some work(LOL)!

If i were to get in a hurricane forecasting job a would pinpoint toward a NHC job more than a weather channel

Have already looked into CSU,have been commended by Duke university(NC) to take a pre-SAT, i denied it though, i have gotten a commended performance on all my state testings last year... just want to be treated normally... looking into Universities(for the future) and pinpointing some colleges that i would like to look into...

Jrweatherman,glad you have a dream to improve an organization that needs some work(LOL)!

If i were to get in a hurricane forecasting job a would pinpoint toward a NHC job more than a weather channel

Have already looked into CSU,have been commended by Duke university(NC) to take a pre-SAT, i denied it though, i have gotten a commended performance on all my state testings last year... just want to be treated normally... looking into Universities(for the future) and pinpointing some colleges that i would like to look into...

Not if they're use to spelling it in Chinese!!! I love the ignorance of some people who think that someone who lives in a different country, with a different language than English, should somehow know exactly how to spell the English translation of words in their language. Oh and let's not mention the possibility of a typo!