NFL Sack Props

Been doing some number collecting and crunching and may have something interesting for the NFL - O/U Sack Proposition.

I am posting here instead of NFL forum because when making plays I am looking at teams past preformances and what they contribute to a sack total, along with the range of sacks from 0 - 6+ and those totals for the season that I have recorded.

Tenn/Caro - 3.5 Sacks - Under +117 - Tenn has only had a few games get to 4 sacks

Hou/TBay - 3.5 Sacks - Over -105

Wash/Mia - 6 Sacks - Over -101 - both teams get and give a monster amount of sacks

Jac/Indy - 4 Sacks - Over -102 - hope for a push here

Den/KC - 4.5 Sacks- Under -109 - need 5 to win -it could happen?

Buff/Dal - 3.5 Sacks - Under +106 - Buffalo has one game that has 4+ sacks this year

NO/Atl - 4 Sacks - Over -104 - push or better

St. L/Cle - 5.5 Sacks - Under-127 - the numbers look like this should fly over and the juice is high - but 6 or more to win (on an over pick), it could happen - but Balt and Pitts could not get this number last week, why would the Rams and Browns?

Pit/Cin - 4.5 Sacks - Under +124 - would like the number more if it was 5 - I like the plus money it was in Pitts last game for the under and it won.

Thats it for the first games on Sunday. Will see how they go and take it from there.

Sorry I did not get Thurday games posted. Will not be added to numbers but the picks went 2-1. Was glad to see in 3rd week of this winnners are happening more often than losers. Hopefully the posted ones for Sunday's game remain with that trend.

Ari/St L - 5.5 Sacks - Under-103 - I know the Ram give up a bunch of sacks but 6 to win is a bunch

Buf/NYJ - 3.5 Sacks - Under -116 - Buf has only had more than 4 sacks once this season.

Caro/Indy - 4 Sacks - Under -116 - both teams low onthe sack numbers

Cle/Cinnci - 4 Sack - Over -103 - think 4 or more can be had in this game

Hous/Jack -4.5 Sacks - Over -104 - Both teams have a good number in the sack totals and Hous has a good defence

Min/Atl -4.5 Sacks - Under -116 - Minny is 2nd in sacks but Atl is terrible. Ponder can run away from trouble

TBay/Tenn - 3.5 Sacks - No play - juice on the Under is too high. Numbers and records say it is under but 4 sacks is not impossible - Again - No Play

Chi/Oak - 4.5 Sacks - Under -108 - Chi has been protecting the QB very well and Cutler has played well.But Cutler is out and I think more runs will be called for offence. I woud take the over if Chi had a better sacking def

NE/Phill- 4 Sacks - Over -112 - surprised this number is not higher - bith teams get after the QB well

Hope to get rest up on Sunday - not sure on the Den/SD game. Good luck with any plays you make

if the number it low go for the under because the book thinks the sacks will be lower.

if the number is higher hit the over because they think it will be higher.

not sure what that high/low number would be. for example, make4 or 4.5 could be under and 5+ hit the over or something like that.

what you think?

I was thinking of something like that before I started to break teams down week by week. I also tracked the number of sacks each game had.

4 sacks and over has hit so far at a 65% clip in 2011. 5 sacks and over is at 49% Trouble is the number set in the prop ranges from 3.5 to 6, so I am trying to see if there is a filter or something to make certain plays.

So far in 3 weeks and a number of 5.5 sacks or more it has been Under every time. It has been set at that 4 times.

One team that has been crazy in all of this is Buffalo - only once has there been 4 or more sacks in their games (10-1 for Under 4)

So, overall I'm not sure a number can be selected as a point as to which way a game is thought to go.

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