Perspectives

A collection of our quarterly publication

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Download PDF→Can the economic expansion and the associated uptrend in corporate earnings again prove resilient? We believe the answer is “yes”. To be clear, we are not saying the issues of today are not of concern, or that everything is fine and dandy. Recent events and market mayhem churn our guts too. But a dispassionate assessment of the current situation and the underlying fundamentals...

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Third Quarter 2018

Download PDF→In just a few months the present economic expansion will likely go down in the record books as the longest in U.S. history so far. Like the proverbial annoying question during family travel—Are we there yet?—this business cycle expansion has been hounded nearly every inch of the way by repeated prognostications that its end is just ahead...

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Second Quarter 2018

Download PDF→In his book, Enlightenment Now: The Case for Reason, Science, Humanism, and Progress, Harvard psychologist Steven Pinker argues that the nature of the media and the way people process information may result in distorted views of the world around us. He points out that the media’s primary objective is attracting viewer attention. Their “if it bleeds, it leads” mode certainly attracts attention...

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First Quarter 2018

Download PDF→Each day Wall Street tallies the number and dollar value of investment securities traded on the financial exchanges. But what Wall Street is really good at is trading insecurities. “How many insecurities traded today?” From Election Day 2016 through the first few weeks of this year, the U.S. stock market displayed very little downside volatility. There were numerous “insecurities” traded along the way, but the market climbed the wall of worries and...

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Fourth Quarter 2017

Download PDF→Ring out the old, ring in the new. While we hope 2018 will ring in a “happy news year” as suggested in the following cartoon, investors would rather not ring out 2017’s rewarding return environment. The contrast last year between headline news and stock market news is fascinating and, for some, hard to reconcile...

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Third Quarter 2017

Download PDF→Over the past several months major U.S. stock market price indices have climbed to record highs. Yet this has been occurring even as North Korea’s “Rocket-Man” threatens the U.S. with nuclear weapons, the Federal Reserve (Fed) continues to raise short-term interest rates and...

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Second Quarter 2017

A U.S. President (Andrew Jackson) once did it. Another almost did so (Abe Lincoln). A Vice President (Aaron Burr) and a Secretary of the Treasury (Alexander Hamilton) did it, and it cost the latter his life. (Hamilton’s son also did it and suffered the same grave outcome). Legislators did it as well …

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First Quarter 2017

Download PDF→The stock market is like an excitable dog on a very long leash darting randomly in every direction. At any one moment, there is no predicting which way the pooch will lurch. But ultimately the dog is following a path determined...

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Fourth Quarter 2016

Download PDF→Since the November elections, stock prices have risen while bond prices have slumped. Are these market moves simply the noise of short-term trading? Are they a head fake? Or are they signals of what lies ahead?

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Third Quarter 2016

Download PDF→Enjoy “who-dun-it?” mysteries? If so you have good company. Two of the longer running TV shows, CSI: Crime Scene Investigation and Forensic Files are who-dun-its. Adding to these shows’ intrigues are the fascinating forensic detection techniques that are used to uncover evidence crucial...