The Kevin Love extension is a feel-good story that could end badly for Cavs

Kevin Love is shown in happier times — the Cavs' championship parade on June 22, 2016.

It's possible Love's game will age gracefully, since he doesn't rely on speed and gravity-defying hops. It's also risky to commit long term to a big man who has missed 22 and 23 games, respectively, in the last two seasons. The five-time All-Star will make a combined $92 million in the final three seasons of the deal.

Two years after the Cavs ended the city's championship drought, Love — the target of LeBron James' infamous "FIT-IN" tweet, the undeserving recipient of some teammates' ire during a 2018 team meeting and the Cavalier most frequently mentioned in trade rumors — is the lone remaining member of the Big Three. Kyrie Irving couldn't wait to leave, and James followed him out the door once his contract expired this summer.

It's a feel-good story. A five-time All-Star who is eager to lead the Cavs as they again try to emerge from the post-LeBron rubble. A championship organization that has no desire to tank, instead believing that building around Love, Collin Sexton, promising players such as Larry Nance Jr. and draft picks to be named later can be the path back to contention.

Love is now on the books for $145 million the next five seasons. In 2020-21 and '21-22, he'll make a projected $31.26 million each year. In 2022-23, the final year of his four-year, $120 million extension, his salary reportedly will drop to $29.42 million. His respective ages in those seasons: 32, 33 and 34.

It's possible Love's game will age gracefully, since he doesn't rely on speed and gravity-defying hops. He's an excellent rebounder and 3-point shooter — traits that can remain strong at 32, 33 and 34.

It's also risky to commit long term to a big man who has missed 22 and 23 games, respectively, in the last two seasons. In his 10-year career, Love has played 60 or fewer games four times. (That total doesn't include his 55 appearances in the 66-game lockout season of 2011-12.)

In his Cavs career, Love has missed time with a fractured hand, a knee injury that required surgery and a shoulder that was dislocated by Kelly Olynyk. During his six seasons in Minnesota, he fractured both hands and had a groin injury.

FiveThirtyEight gives the soon-to-be 30-year-old a projected value of $17 million in 2020-21, $12.6 million in 2021-22 and $8.2 million in '22-23 — seasons in which Love will be paid a combined $92 million. The site's list of the 10 players who are the most comparable to Love begins with Jack Sikma and Troy Murphy.

The risk, though, goes well beyond injuries.

The Cavs only keep their first-round pick if they're one of the league's 10 worst teams this season. And if they retain the choice, the same parameters are in play for 2019-20.

Granted, they might be so bad that keeping Love won't stop them from falling into the bottom 10. But the current state of the LeBron-less Eastern Conference is such that the worst-case scenarios seem realistic.

The Cavs can stink, miss the playoffs and hand the Atlanta Hawks their 2019 first-round pick in the 11-14 range. They could also stink, get the eighth seed, get bounced in the first round by Boston, Toronto or Philadelphia, and give the Hawks the 15th or 16th pick in the draft.

Yes, the draft is a crapshoot. There's also quite a bit to admire about trying to reload, rather than bottom out — especially with The Q under construction, and season-ticket holders and corporate partners locked in for at least the next couple seasons.

Heck, there's even a chance this could all work to perfection, that Sexton will be an All-Star, that Love will stay healthy and productive, that the Cavs will hit on a high pick in 2019 and/or 2020.

There's also the chance that Love will be really good without LeBron (he was in limited minutes last season), become an attractive trade asset and be dealt to a contender in the next couple years. Plus, it's not as if the extension is a salary-cap killer, since the Cavs could have about $25 million in space next summer and as much as $70 million in 2020. Love also didn't get the full max, which in the final year of the deal could have called for a salary of almost $44 million.

This is a nuanced discussion that has too many variables for a hot take, and points that extend well beyond metrics.

Still, there are a few factors we can't escape.

Love is maybe the third-best player on a championship team. It's possible he can be the No. 2 option on a contender, as he was last season — though that club had the world's best player operating at the peak of his powers.

He's limited, to put it kindly, defensively, and getting 65 games out of him would seem fortunate.

Most importantly, the Cavs' best chance is to develop Sexton into an All-Star, hope a few of the other young guys emerge into solid rotation players and hit home runs in the next couple drafts.

You can do that with Kevin Love, though your draft odds likely would be more favorable without him.

But the Cavs don't want to tank. We respect that.

They also want you to feel good about a post-LeBron world. That's admirable, too.

Yet there's a fine line between gracious and impractical. In this case, it extends to 2023.

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