ODL Evaluation Thread. Natenoy vs Vancem Topic

I have completed the groupings and will work on providing my reasoning tonight with final eval write-ups. As a preview here is where each team landed, (note that teams are sorted within each group by team number and NOT where I would rank each team within each group.)

Also, on my first pass I had the following totals:
Group #1: 6
Group #2: 7
Group #3: 7
Group #4: 4

98 was dropped from group #2 to number 3 because I decided that the other 12 were stronger than his
malone and skypilots were dropped from #3 to #4 because someone had to be moved down and I saw these two teams as being the weakest of the teams in the group

Sly, there is at least a 50-50 chance I'll end up picking you as a playoff team once I can see all reserves and drop all of the advanced stats into my spreadsheets. Odds are the conferences won't end up with 6 each from groups 1 and 2, almost as likely to end up 7-5 or even 8-4, if it's 7-5 and you are in the 5 group then it's very likely you'll be one of the teams I'll predict for the playoffs. There is a fine line between the teams in group 2 and the ones in group 3, IMO your squad fell just past the line.

I want to share that I am planning to use Bol and Evans in a VERY unique way. This team will give us insight on some of my FGA/m and individual player penalty theories in the sim. Howard/Granger/Allen will be surrounded by 9 guys that are a mix of .5 and 1-point tier usage players, when the three are on the court together they should be taking in excess of 80% of my shots. I’ll be using Granger for 8-9 mpg at C (95%), and Allen and Granger will split the entire 48 available minutes at either SF or SG, meaning all 3 will be together for 10-12 mpg and 2 of the 3 will be on the court for the other 36-38 mpg, thus unless one of the three fouls out, I’ll never be exposed to the team usage penalty.

I’ll start with Bol:

I’ve been looking at blk% lately and IMO it has an impact in the sim that is an independent variable from the D rankings. There are exactly 5 different players with a combined total of 13 seasons that offer more than 300 minutes and a blk% over 8.0% in the sim.

PG: Guess how many different players in the sim have a blk% of at least 6% if started in this position? ONE: Bol at 60% PG effectiveness in any one of his three blk% of 10% or above seasons, that’s it.

SG: What about a 7% block rate from the SG position you ask? Again, only ONE GUY and that’s Bol again at 70% effectiveness.

SF: Do I hear 8% at SF? Well in a close race, Bol actually loses out to another guy who is at 8.06% and gives you less than 50% of Bol’s 2000+ minutes at 8.0% and 80% effectiveness.

PF: Do we have any players with a 9.0% block rate from the PF position in the sim? Yea, ONE, Bol who has each and every one of the top 5 season’s all-time, there are EXACTLY six total seasons at a block rate of 9.0% or above and the guy in 6th is only 90% effective at PF.

C: I have Shaq and need usage from his backup, so Bol won’t be able to give me any of those top-5 all-time seasons in blk% from that position.

No he really won’t give me much beyond his blk% except a ton of fouls, but I can put him at ANY position including PG or SG and he still offers a dominate blk% for over ½ of the game. I plan to use him a lot at SF if I stick with his 2090 min season.

When you start with a D ranking of 29 at PF and you are the only guy on a team that has a sub-50 D it doesn’t really hurt your squad if you use that guy and his 24 D at SF, or even 19 D at SG, (PG does not matter because you need assists there but in case you are wondering he is a 12 there.)

So, when you draft Evans you have to ask yourself where is the least painful place to take the hit your team takes from him on D for 24mpg and balance it with what kind of rebounding advantage does he bring to that position?

For his natural PF position his numbers are (orb-dreb-combined): 14.6-35.7-50.3

At 90% SF he brings: 13.14-32.13-45.27, IMO 45.3 SF is a far more dominant advantage than 50.3 from PF.

And believe it or not, his 82% effectiveness at SG may offer more of an advantage than anything else: 11.97-29.27-41.25.

There is a good chance that Evans will see most of his minutes at SG/SF for my team since the weak D can only get so weak, he never shoots the ball anyway, and it appears that he becomes even more dominant on the boards as he moves to the smaller positions, even though his effectiveness drops.

I may even have a Bol/Evans combo for 48mpg at SF, just wish I could take their stats, combine them, divide by two, and play their average for 48mpg. I may also try to keep them both on the court together most of the time at different positions, but that is more difficult when only three players on your squad are responsible for over 80% of your usage and they are not in that group of three.

Could blow up in my face altogether, but I expect to see some crazy numbers from these guys, at least once in a while.

Nate I really think you overvalue defense. Bol, while he turns shots away does nothing else. Rebounding may hurt you in this league. I think the fact that you are putting yourself in tier 2 is confusing. Because if defense matters as much as you think who on your team stops Wade on my lowly ranked tier 4 squad, or defense isn't as important and you get to watch the weaknesses of Bol and Evans cost you possessions. Bol with no rebounding and both of them with the gross proliferation of fouls.

I am not trying to say I didn't draft a foul monster, because I did (it is my number one fault when drafting always), but you have nothing to stop anyone in the backcourt. Trust me Darrell Walker isn't frightening anyone.

So which is it? Defense is super important and your backcourt is going to be killed, or defense is as important as I think it is and Bol is a tall piece of nothingness running around the court.

Bol is 80% at SF, so he gives you 4.9-13.7-18.6 on the boards (not exactly a blank spot) with a block rate of 8%, so he should see 65-70 possessions and give you at least 5 blocks a game at SF. Does not shoot and I don't want him to with Shaq and Allen on this team.

Granger is 74D and will likely start for me at SG. Chandler is 90, Shaq is 80, all of my non-exclusive guys also play D. I'm leaning heavily towards the 50D Allen also.So Evans is my only horrible player on D and he rebounds better than anyone else in the sim.

My D is not elite and I never made any claims that is was, but I expect to see my big-3 putting up 70+ shots a game at a very nice efg%, and they all three have RL tov% under 12, so while I will see the individual usage penalty at times it won't hut me as much as teams with higher tov%'s from their usage guys that hit the penalty.