It's time once again for my annual division previews using Established Win Shares Levels, which are explained here. Before we get to rolling out the 2009 EWSLs, I have to update the age adjustments and rookie values I use. These are based on the data I have gathered over the past five seasons, and so with each passing year, one would hope they become progressively more stable and useful (how accurate EWSL was in 2008 is another day's story, but of course as I always remind my readers, EWSL doesn't predict the future, it just provides a rough count of the talent on hand).

First up is the age adjustments; I've reformatted the table a bit from past years (see my writeups on the age adjustments following the 2004 season - also here - 2005, 2006 and 2007.

2008

Non-P

Total

Non-P

Age

#

WS

EWSL

%

#

WS

EWSL

%

21-

0

0

0

0

4

33

34

0.971

22

4

46

33

1.394

24

378

194.9

1.940

23

11

93

100

0.930

46

595

462.5

1.286

24

23

353

262

1.347

83

1129

873.3

1.293

25

27

371

330

1.124

115

1348

1098

1.227

26

27

280

257

1.089

145

1580

1393

1.135

27

39

351

322

1.090

163

1790

1711

1.046

28

38

426

428

0.995

175

2118

2059

1.029

29

24

330

315

1.048

155

1862

1986

0.937

30

28

296

309

0.958

174

1888

2156

0.876

31

26

228

307

0.743

154

1606

1941

0.827

32

39

404

524

0.771

148

1514

1841

0.822

33

20

147

223

0.659

115

1170

1402

0.835

34

23

241

317

0.760

101

1031

1201

0.858

35

5

47

55

0.855

89

678

975.7

0.695

36

19

211

252

0.837

71

673

879.8

0.765

37

7

72

87

0.828

48

390

594.3

0.656

38

7

43

65

0.662

33

274

380.5

0.720

39

2

13

23

0.565

26

273

347.8

0.785

40+

6

36

89

0.404

30

228

423.7

0.538

All NP

375

3988

4298

0.928

1899

20558

21955

0.936

As you can see, there were the usual annual variations from historic norms, but the overall 5-year results are still pretty stable, showing that non-pitchers as a group improve rapidly in their early 20s, more slowly in their mid-20s, and begin a remorseless downward slide starting at age 29, with ages 35 and 37 being the worst culprits on the south side of 40 for one-year decline (if anything, the aggregate numbers conceal the extent of the decline because of people dropping out of the sample - note that a third of the guys who have jobs at age 30 are gone from the preseason depth charts by age 33). The interesting question is whether these trends have been skewed by steroid use; I note that in 2008, the decline rates for hitters in the age 31-34 bracket and the age 38-and-up bracket were unusually steep by historic standards. (The 35-year-old cohort was extremely small this year due to a lot of guys hitting the wall early). It was also a rough year for 23-year-olds, but that seems more like random noise.

I've included, for the first time, a total line for all ages at the bottom, and you can see that the average non-pitcher comes up 6.4% short of established levels in any given year. When you think about it, that's not really surprising.

2008

P

Total

P

Age

#

WS

EWSL

%

#

WS

EWSL

%

21-

0

0

0

0

8

56

38

1.474

22

6

37

35

1.057

26

192

166.6

1.152

23

10

73

54

1.352

47

342

327.8

1.043

24

22

222

137

1.620

80

565

498.4

1.134

25

23

139

134

1.037

108

741

669.4

1.107

26

31

181

187

0.968

135

898

839.2

1.070

27

25

194

225

0.862

127

899

944.6

0.952

28

14

73

112

0.652

137

943

956.3

0.986

29

31

259

260

0.996

138

914

1036

0.882

30

30

151

191

0.791

128

742

870.4

0.852

31

25

181

175

1.034

109

715

836.5

0.855

32

15

94

113

0.832

84

495

676.5

0.732

33

14

76

122

0.623

71

380

544.3

0.698

34

6

14

32

0.438

56

262

386.6

0.678

35

6

35

39

0.897

44

206

314.2

0.656

36

9

50

68

0.735

39

219

254.2

0.862

37

8

31

51

0.608

33

223

264.3

0.844

38

6

45

55

0.818

34

234

293

0.799

39

2

23

15

1.533

21

164

177.3

0.925

40+

13

68

119

0.571

55

398

539.3

0.738

All P

296

1946

2124

0.916

1480

9588

10633

0.902

The pitchers are by nature more volatile - you will notice that the average pitcher is apt to be off closer to 10% over the 5-year period. It was a freakishly good year for 23-24-year-old pitchers, as well as age 31 and age 39 (the latter being basically Mike Mussina), and crummy for everyone else; the age 28 and 34 groups, already smaller than their surrounding age cohorts, got slaughtered. The overall 5-year pattern remains one of decline for pitchers in every age group above 26, with brutal attrition rates beyond age 32. Pitching is rough business.

Type of Player

# in 2008

WS in 2008

# 2004-08

WS 2004-08

Rate

Everyday Players

10

104

52

585

11.25

Bench Players (Under 30)

4

4

44

159

3.61

Bench Players (Age 30+)

1

0

3

2

0.67

Rotation Starters

4

16

18

77

4.28

Relief Pitchers

0

0

11

65

5.91

TOTAL

19

124

128

888

6.94

The rookie adjustments remain, along with the ad hoc fudge factor, the most glaringly unscientific part of this enterprise, but I need some less than wholly random way to plug in the rookies, and at least for everyday players the rough guideline that has them around 11 Win Shares a year for rookies with everyday jobs mostly holds up. Rookie starting pitchers, of course, will break your heart.