Predictive winner: This category is murderously rough, with everyone so deserving. It’s a really tight race between Sam Rockwell (so likable! such a good dancer!) and veteran Willem Dafoe. Who knows with the sneaky Hollywood Foreign Press Association — they could shake things up just enough that Christopher Plummer will win for his amazing turn in Ridley Scott’s All the Money in the World. But with money on the line we’re betting on Sam Rockwell.

Best Supporting Actress

Neon

Mary J. Blige, Mudbound

Hong Chau, Downsizing

Allison Janney, I, Tonya

Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird

Octavia Spencer, The Shape of Water

Predictive Winner: A neck-and-neck race between two wonderful veteran performers in Allison Janney and Laurie Metcalf. This one is so close! So close! Can’t we please have a tie? No? In that case I’ll go for Allison Janney (and that bird!) for I, Tonya.

Best Actor in a Drama

Jack English/Focus Features

Timothée Chalamet, Call Me By Your Name

Daniel Day-Lewis, Phantom Thread

Tom Hanks, The Post

Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour

Denzel Washington, Roman J Israel, Esq

Predictive winner: One could make an argument that there’s no man in the world more well-liked than Tom Hanks; or that Daniel Day-Lewis — a.k.a. the greatest actor of all time — deserves a proper sendoff into his supposed retirement; or that the mangenue of the moment, Timothée Chalamet, could clinch this. But I am sticking with Gary Oldmanand his amazing transformation into Winston Churchill to clinch the win.

Best Actress in a Drama

Niko Tavernise/Twentieth Century Fox

Jessica Chastain, Molly’s Game

Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water

Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Meryl Streep, The Post

Michelle Williams, All the Money in the World

Predictive winner: Remember Meryl Streep‘s powerful speech last year at the Golden Globes? Yes, she was incredible in The Post, but don’t you think the HFPA might also want to give her another chance to do the same?

Best Actor in a Comedy or Musical

Justina Mintz/A24

Steve Carrell, Battle of the Sexes

Ansel Elgort, Baby Driver

James Franco, The Disaster Artist

Hugh Jackman, The Greatest Showman

Daniel Kaluuya, Get Out

Predictive winner: To my mind, it’s hard to not just give Hugh Jackman — the hardest and nicest working man in show business — anything that he wants. Circus movie, you say? You got it! However, I do think in the end it will be James Franco, who managed to direct and star in one of the funniest movies of the year, who will be making what will surely be a very weird acceptance speech.

Best Actress in a Comedy or Musical

Merie Wallace/A24

Judi Dench, Victoria & Abdul

Helen Mirren, The Leisure Seekers

Margot Robbie, I, Tonya

Saorise Ronan, Lady Bird

Emma Stone, Battle of the Sexes

Predictive winner: I will be very surprised (and a little dismayed) if anyone but the lovely Saorise Ronan walks away with this one.

Best Director

Kerry Hayes/Fox Searchlight

Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water

Martin McDonagh, Three Billboards Outside of Ebbing, Missouri

Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk

Ridley Scott, All the Money in the World

Steven Spielberg, The Post

Predictive winner: A write-in campaign for either Greta Gerwig or Jordan Peele! No? In that case I think this one will probably come down to either the cool elegance of Nolan’s direction in Dunkirk or the wonderfully romantic heart beating at the center of The Shape of Water courtesy of Guillermo del Toro. In a pinch I think love will win the day, so let’s go with del Toro.

Best Picture, Drama

Fox Searchlight

Call Me By Your Name

Dunkirk

The Post

Three Billboards Outside of Ebbing. Missouri

The Shape of Water

Predictive winner: In these troubled times, I choose The Shape of Waterwith its story of love among outsiders will prevail.

Best Picture, Comedy or Musical

Merie Wallace/A24

Get Out

I, Tonya

Lady Bird

The Disaster Artist

The Greatest Showman

Predictive winner: They may have denied its writer and director any recognition and yet I still think it’s going to be Lady Birdall the way.