John Fox said he was “playing the percentages” in Broncos loss. But are his numbers right?

Peyton Manning took a knee to run out the clock on both the first half and regulation against the Ravens on Saturday. (Joe Amon, The Denver Post)

Broncos coach John Fox on Monday said he was “playing the percentages” in a loss to Baltimore, including a decision to kneel down at the end of regulation. He said: “I’d do it again 10 times if it presented itself 10 times in that situation.”

According to Keith Goldner at the excellent Advanced NFL Stats, since the 2000 NFL season there have been 21 games similar to the Broncos’ situation against the Ravens (a drive that starts with between 20-40 seconds remaining; the offense has two or more timeouts; the offense has either a deficit of 3-or-fewer points or the game is tied).

In those 21 situations, the offense scored a field goal four times. Not a lot. But only one offense turned the ball over and eventually lost the game (Donovan McNabb’s INT for Philadelphia against Washington in 2009). In 16 games, the offense missed a field goal or didn’t get a kick off.

In other words, the chance of success is slim. But the chance of losing is even slimmer. So it’s statistically wise to attempt to move the ball down the field. (You’d have to surmise, too, that the chance of success is even greater with a Hall of Fame quarterback, someone like Peyton Manning).

The most common result in that situation is a zero sum, no points for or against (76 percent). But there’s a 19 percent chance of winning. And only a 5 percent chance of losing. Kneeling down results in a 100 percent chance of zero sum. So John Fox gave away a 19 percent chance of winning.

“These results would suggest that if a team decided to go for the win, it would result in about a 57% chance of winning the game. Add Peyton Manning into the mix and that number certainly increases. Last game of the season, can’t hold anything back.”

“It’s undeniably risky (to go for it), but the odds are strongly in the offense’s favor there. Yes, the chances of scoring to win in regulation are small, but they significantly exceed the probability of a meaningful turnover.”

What about Atlanta?

Fox also talked about Atlanta’s late drive to defeat Seattle on Sunday. The Falcons had :31 seconds and two timeouts to work with, and they used three plays to get into field-goal range for the game-winning kick.

“The Atlanta game is not close to the situation (the Broncos faced) because you’re going to lose the game if you don’t score. Ours is completely different.”

He’s right that Atlanta had a score-or-go-home situation (and they were playing indoors). But it doesn’t change the percentages. The Falcons still had as good a chance to score as the Broncos did. The Falcons’ win probability (their chance of winning the game) was lower, but the percentage chance of them turning the late drive into points was the same as the Broncos’.

Fox is to Conservative to win in play offs ,he proved it all day sat day !!! retire him!!

Joe Blowe

Anyone else Remember this from another coach? “Hello, you play to WIN THE GAME!!!”

Well put an AND SO Relevent, Herm!!!!

Zach

Great points! As an economist, understanding and examining statistics like this is a big part of what I do.
The chance of losing should be less, since Baltimore had no timeouts and Denver had two. I would guess that this would increase the chance of winning by maybe a percentage point, but these statistics don’t take account for the fact that Manning is our quarterback (or the fact that it was cold, or against the Ravens defense, or at home to be completely fair).
My point is that these statistics can be biased, but still it’s obvious if you play to win, you’re more likely to win. Coach Fox chose to play not to lose and left it to a 50-50 coin toss.

Dave Watkins

Yup. Smart people understand.

Al Davis

That 19% margin does not factor in that you have one of the best QB’s of all time. I’m a Pat’s fan, and I will tell you that Manning with the ball in that situation would scare me to death. I don’t care what “shock” he was in – give that man the ball. When Brady had that chance in the SB we took it , and we won (even thogh John Madden was saying “kill the call the clock)

Out on the plains

You should play to win. What about the hall of fame guy, no confidence in him?

NFL Football is ALL about MOMENTUM, and if you have a chance to deny the opponent the football with 3:10 on the clock, you do everything possible to get the one additional first down that will obtain victory. FOX coached “to not lose” rather than “to win” [something that irked Elway win Reeves coached the Broncos!] and deferred momentum to the visitors.

Gary

If John Elway hired a coach that is going to continue to coach his players NOT TO LOSE, then we will never

win a super bowl with Peyton Manning as long as John Fox is our coach. Fox is afraid to PLAY TO WIN. Sad

takeaway from Saturdays playoff game. I thought Elway was smarter….

schunt7

What I couldnt figure out was why we didn’t run a play action on the third down, Peyton can throw to a wide open player or just slide down and let them touch him for a loss if no one was open. Worse case scenario is an incomplete pass that stops the clock giving them just a few more seconds to defend. (Yes, I know how that worked out anyway)

elbee

What about the 36 seconds and 3 time outs they had at the end of the first half. Again, the knee. That’s 1:07 and 5 time outs that they just wasted. Love the Bronco’s, but all things equal I root for the team that plays their heart out. The Bronco’s didn’t try as hard as they could–hands down. Don’t know if they would have won if they’d used all the chances they had to score, but the loss wouldn’t have been as disappointing. The fact that Fox (and Elway) are defending the decision bothers me almost as much as the loss.

There should be no surprises whatsoever about Fox’s decision: he came in as a conservative coach, he’s a conservative coach now, and he’ll be a conservative coach when he leaves. Which doesn’t explain why he rolled the dice with Tebow! I guess he had to cause he was a high Bronco draft pick. Though Fox wasn’t coach when Tebow was selected, so he did roll the dice. Anyhow, clock management didn’t lose this game — having not a single competitive game since early October lost this game. And the Tebow karma. Maybe Elway can work with Manning this off-season like he worked with Tebow last offseason.

Armchair Coach

I think John Fox has a .05% chance of convincing anyone that his gutless decision was the right one to make when your quarterback is Peyton Manning.

meldasue

You’re forgetting one big stat: Prater’s field goal percentage over the past month and a half. He’s been awful, and had already missed one field goal. If you’ve got Elam, no question, the stats are in your favor. With Prater, you’ve got to score a touchdown. (I don’t think he’s even had a high-pressure kick all season – I don’t think he’s had to come in at the end of a game to win or tie.)

Jason

Excellent article, it’s nice to have research backing everyone who sees the situation with common sense. And I’d have to think that when giving consideration to all possible outcomes and weighing your odds in that scenario, the fact that you have one of the greatest Quarterbacks to ever have played casts those “percentages” even more in your favor. As this article states, trying very rarely equates to immediate loss.

Nothing ventured, nothing gained. History exalts men who have been and conquered, not those who have whimpered and conceded. John Fox has always struck me as a little dim when he speaks, but he well and truly confirmed it this weekend.

dp_blogger

But, wait a minute! Wasnt’ it John Fox who “made Tim Tebow successful” last year? The man was in the running for NFL Coach of the Year, after “overhauling” the entire offense to suit a less than adequate QB. At least that’s what all of the geniuses in the media and at ESPN told us; and they can’t possibly be wrong.

You can’t be speaking of the same coach. Impossible! This can’t possibly be the same person who was responsible for the Broncos success last year. It must be an impostor who made those bone-headed decisions. John Fox was taking a leak(old guy, old bladder and cold weather are a bad mix) during the last three minutes of regulation.

On second thought, I now recall how Fox dissed Timmy by saying: “…he’d be SCREWED if he were asked to run a conventional NFL offense”, while laughing heartily.

Hmmmm….maybe Broncos Nation is finally learning that John Fox “will be SCREWED when pressed to make conventional NFL coaching decisions.”

cyril

I think the mistake that Denver made was going too conservative on their possession before Baltimore tied the game. They should have played their natural game and converted that to a first down. I believe that is where Denver lost the game.

JL47

But if they went for it, that would mean they would have to let Peyton Manning pass the ball… I do not understand why they spent all that money to bring in Peyton Manning after that game. When the Broncos were ahead at the end, and all they had to do was get a first down to win, I could not understand why they did the run-run-run-punt thing. Are you serious? We may have well have had Tebow back there at QB. And then to take a knee at the end, it just felt like they were giving up.

teebs

Foxy’s only mistake was having an anemic rushing attack and a non-mobile QB in that game. Foxy wanted Tebow all along and Tebow would have delivered a victory in this game. Tebow would have busted off 40 yard runs against the gaping holes in the Raven pass defense…Shouldn’t have even been close. Elway the dictator. Hang it all on him.

Travis N

So in any of those 16 games with a missed or no-attempt FG, did any other coach take a knee? This blog post implies that in 21 of 21 times the offense at least tried to get in FG position and Fox is the first coach since at least 2000 to sit. Is that true?

Travis N

I followed the link and answered my own question. The 21 samples do not include times when coaches took a knee. So now the question is: How many times did teams flop over and wait for overtime? 21 teams “played to win”, how many played “not to lose”?

1998- Pittsburgh – Denver AFC Championship. 3rd and 7. You don’t get the first down you have to punt the ball to a Steeler team that is moving the ball and only needs a FG. What does Elway do? He throws the ball to Sharpe. First down. End of game. I can’t believe that Elway said he would have done the exact same thing as Fox in this game. I’d be feeling a lot better to hear Fox take the responsiblity for the loss – like Shanahan did every time there was a loss – instead of brushing it off and saying he would do the same again. There were young men crying and taking complete responsibility in that locker room – and he takes none. Get him out of here.

dan

Agree with you 100 percent!

The Mad Bomber

Fox is either a liar or the dumbest coach in the NFL…..or maybe both…..and then Elway swears to it ? Elway would NEVER have taken a knee to end the game with time and timeouts left. NEVER. Good luck with Fox, you’ll never gwt to the Super Bowl with him at the helm…..big game choke job for Fox……took a knee at the ned of both halfs !! What are you paying Manning all that money for ??? I feel bad for you Bronco fans…..

FrankW

Good luck with Johnny Fox … he was a disaster in Carolina! Everyone called him “The Clapper” because when the Panthers were down by 37 points in the 4th quarter, he would clap, clap clap and smile like everything was just fine and OK!!! What a joke he was … and still is!!! Glad that he went west … good luck with that joke of a coach!!!

Kenneth Mahieu

I don’t have any problems with the decision not to go for it in the last 30 seconds. There had just been a stunning, totally unexpected turn-around that no one was expecting. It would have been impossible to get the Bronco’s offense focus and concentration together for a 30 second drive. But the decision I am most upset with was the run v pass call on 3rd and seven(?) before turning the ball over to the Ravens. I understand the clock argument, but you gotta dance with the horse what brung ya, or whatever the saying is, and the Broncos turned their back on Manning’s arm and sealed their fate with that call.

Adam

It would be interesting statistically to see the times that Peyton Manning has been in a situation like this before, and what the percentages were.

cedric floyd

isn’t that what Mitt Romney did or said AND WE ALL KNOW HOW THAT TURN OUT…is anybody gonna get fired for this Blunder of not even trying..he has the NERVE to say he was playing the percentages.. let’s c all primary running backs r down except 185lb Hillman, we got Decker, Tamme, Thomas, Strokely,Dressen , Green 3rd & 7 & the best regular QB in the Game having one of his best year ever and u can still go on 4th down.. really NOOOOOOOOOOOOO u John FOX elected to run Hillman in between the tackles u could have had him swing out of the backfield…NOPE took the ball out of PM hands and the REST is HISTORY…

Pacodog

pacodog

Frogman812

I’m not a stats guru, but I understand winning and loosing. These athletes are our modern-day gladiators. They have prepared themsels since pee-wee football for situations like this. I belive kneeling down is a sign of weekness. I hate the prevent defense whch has resulted in high nlood pressure over the years. The playoffs are no place for conservative play calling. I’d be perfectly fine with a loss accompanied by agressive play calling; however, a conservative game plan resulting in a loss is unacceptable. Next season the Mile High attendees should bring white towels that can be held up every time Fox and company goes conservative. White flags are for the French not the Denver Broncos. Do you understand that statement Elway? In your playing days you would not have been as accepting of surrender as you are now.

Charlie

Might as well have saved $100 million and kept Tebow if that’s how you were gonna play

Nicki Jhabvala is a Broncos beat writer for The Denver Post. She was previously the digital news editor for sports. Before arriving in Denver, she spent five years at Sports Illustrated working primarily as its online NBA editor. She also spent two years as a home page editor at the New York Times.