At midnight there were 10 spotted regions on the visible disk, 1 of which has not yet been numbered. A total of 12 C class flares
were recorded during the day.

Region 10218 decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 10220 decayed further and was mostly quiet.
Region 10223 was mostly unchanged and may be capable of producing a minor M class flare.
Region 10224 developed many new spots in the trailing spot section and could produce an M class flare. Flare:
C1.9 at 18:20 UTC.
Region 10225 rotated partly into view at the northeast limb on December 12 and was numbered on Dec.13.
Region 10226 developed quickly and could produce an M class flare. Flares: C1.9 at
04:38, C3.9/1F at 08:38, C2.0 at 12:01, C2.0 at 12:54 and C2.1 at 20:35 UTC.
Region 10227 developed slowly and quietly.
New region 10228 rotated into view at the southeast limb on December 13 and was numbered one day later. This unimpressive
region could soon become spotless.
New region 10229 rotated into view at the northeast limb on Dec.13 and was numbered on Dec.14. The region developed
moderately quickly and has M class flare potential. Flares: C1.1 at 06:47, C3.1 long duration
event peaking at 14:24 and C2.9 at 15:04 UTC.

Spotted regions not yet numbered by SEC:
[S57] A new region emerged southwest of region 10218 on December 14. Location at midnight: S21W15.

Coronal holes

A trans equatorial, recurrent extension of the southern polar coronal hole will rotate into a geoeffective position on December 15-16.

Processed SOHO EIT 284 image at 19:06 UTC on December 14. Any black areas on the solar disk are likely coronal holes.

Forecast

The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet to unsettled on December 15-16. A significantly stronger coronal
stream is likely to arrive on December 17 and cause unsettled to minor or event major storm conditions. Long distance medium wave (AM) band propagation along
east-west paths over high and upper middle latitudes is fair to good.

Coronal holes (1)

Coronal mass ejections (2)

M and X class flares (3)

1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth within the
next 5 days.
2) Material from a CME is likely to impact Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48
hours.

Composite image based on a SOHO/MDI continuum image and overlaid by a coronal hole image. Region numbering has been included.

Data for all numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by SEC/NOAA. Comments are my own, as is the
STAR spot count (spots observed at or just prior to midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SEC or where SEC has observed no spots.

Solar region

Date numbered

SEC
spot
count

STAR
spot
count

Location at midnight

Area

Classification

Comment

10212

2002.12.02

N13W85

plage

10213

2002.12.03

N18W66

plage

10215

2002.12.05

1

S18W48

0000

AXX

actually spotless

10217

2002.12.08

N14W22

plage

10218

2002.12.08

16

15

S18W11

0090

DAO

currently reversed
polarity region

10220

2002.12.09

16

13

S13W18

0120

EAO

10221

2002.12.09

4

N20W01

0020

CRO

spotless last 3 days!

10222

2002.12.11

S06W42

plage
see comment below on
region S54

10223

2002.12.12

5

4

N23E46

0140

DSO

10224

2002.12.12

22

30

S18E49

0290

EAI

beta-gamma

10225

2002.12.13

9

10

N17E51

0140

DAI

10226

2002.12.13

19

21

S28E39

0170

DAI

beta-gamma

10227

2002.12.13

4

4

N06E21

0030

CSO

classification was DSO
at midnight, area 0040

10228

2002.12.14

1

1

S14E65

0040

HSX

formerly region S56
area was 0020
at midnight

10229

2002.12.14

7

31

N15E65

0220

DAI

beta-gamma
formerly region S55
area was near 0350
at midnight

S49

emerged on
2002.12.09

S22W35

plage

S54

emerged on
2002.12.12

S13W40

plage
SEC has this region
as region 10222

S57

emerged on
2002.12.14

2

S21W15

0020

CSO

Total spot count:

104

131

SSN:

214

231

Monthly solar cycle data

Month

Average solar
flux at Earth

International sunspot number

Smoothed sunspot number

2000.04

184.2

125.5

120.8
cycle 23 sunspot max.

2000.07

202.3

170.1

119.8

2001.11

210.6

106.5

115.5 (+1.5)

2001.12

235.1

132.2

114.6 (-0.9)

2002.01

226.6

114.1

113.5 (-1.1)

2002.02

205.0

107.4

114.7 (+1.2)

2002.03

179.5

98.4

113.4 (-1.3)

2002.04

189.8

120.7

110.5 (-2.9)

2002.05

178.4

120.8

108.8 (-1.7)

2002.06

148.7

88.3

(106.4 predicted, -2.4)

2002.07

173.5

99.9

(102.8 predicted, -3.6)

2002.08

183.6

116.4

(99.6 predicted, -3.2)

2002.09

175.8

109.3

(96.6 predicted, -3.0)

2002.10

167.0

97.5

(93.1 predicted, -3.5)

2002.11

168.7

95.0

(87.8 predicted, -5.3)

2002.12

154.9 (1)

66.9 (2)

(83.5 predicted, -4.3)

1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UT observed solar flux value at 2800
MHz.
2) Unofficial, accumulated value based on the Boulder (SEC/NOAA) sunspot number. The official
international sunspot number is typically 25-45% less.

This report has been prepared by Jan
Alvestad. It is based partly on my own observations and interpretations, and
partly on data from sources noted in solar
links. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.