This latest Croatia Oil & Gas Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for 1.68% of Central and Eastern European (CEE) regional oil demand by 2015, while contributing just 0.13% to regional supply. CEE regional oil use of 5.42mn barrels per day (b/d) in 2001 is forecast to rise to 6.05mn b/d in 2010 and increase to around 6.89mn b/d by 2015. Regional oil production was 8.89mn b/d in 2001 and is expected to average 13.82mn b/d in 2010 and 15.08mn b/d by 2015. Oil exports are growing steadily, because demand growth is lagging the pace of supply expansion. In 2001, the region was exporting an average of 3.47mn b/d. This total is forecast to rise to 7.76mn b/d in 2010 and 8.19mn b/d by 2015. Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan have the greatest production growth potential, although Russia will remain the key exporter.

In terms of natural gas, the region is forecast to consume an
estimated 636.3bn cubic metres (bcm) in 2010, with demand of 747.7bcm targeted for 2015, representing 17.5% growth. Production of an estimated 787.9bcm in 2010 should reach 954.2bcm in 2015, which implies net exports rising from an estimated 151.6bcm in 2010 to 206.5bcm by the end of the period. Croatia’s share of gas consumption in 2010 is expected to be around 0.47%, while its share of production is put at 0.25%. By 2015, its share of demand is forecast to be 0.60%, with the country accounting for 0.31% of supply.

For 2010 as a whole, we assume an average OPEC basket price of US$77.00/bbl (+26.5% year-on-year (y-o-y)). The 2010 US WTI price is now put at US$79.16/bbl. BMI is assuming an OPEC basket price of US$80.00/bbl in 2011, with WTI averaging US$82.25/bbl, Brent at US$82.46/bbl, Urals delivering around US$81.21/bbl and the Dubai average being US$80.74/bbl. Our central assumption for 2012 is an OPEC price averaging US$85.00/bbl, delivering WTI at approximately US$87.40 and Brent at US$87.60/bbl. From 2013 onwards, we are using an average OPEC price of US$90.00/bbl.

For the whole of 2010, the BMI assumption for the global gasoline price is an average US$87.49/bbl, representing a y-o-y rise of 24.7%. The global gasoil forecast is for an average price of US$88.00/bbl, probably peaking in December 2010 at more than US$95/bbl. The full-year outturn represents a 27.6% increase from the 2009 level. For 2010, the annual jet price level is forecast to be US$89.50/bbl, compared with US$70.66/bbl in 2009. The 2010 average naphtha price is put by BMI at US$77.65/bbl, up almost 31% from the previous year’s level.

BMI forecasts Croatian real GDP falling by 0.4% in 2010 and average annual growth of 2.4% from 2010- 2015. Consumption of oil is set to grow more slowly than the underlying economy, increasing by less than 1.5% per annum over the forecast period and reaching 115,000b/d by 2015. Imports are therefore set to rise from an estimated 82,000b/d in 2010 to no more than 95,000b/d by the end of the forecast period. Former state oil group INA is attempting to raise local supply in partnership with major shareholder MOL, but we expect to see a steady decline in oil and liquids production, from the estimated 2010 level of 24,000b/d to no more than 20,000b/d by 2015. We expect gas output of an estimated 2.0bcm in 2010 to have reached 3.0bcm by 2015. Consumption is forecast to rise from an estimated 3.0bcm in 2010 to 4.5bcm by 2015, requiring imports of 1.5bcm.

Between 2010 and 2020, we are forecasting an increase in Croatian oil consumption of 17.2%, with crude import volumes rising steadily from an estimated 82,000b/d to 108,000b/d by the end of the 10-year forecast period. Gas production is expected to fall from an estimated 2.0bcm in 2010 to a peak of 3.0bcm before easing to 2.3bcm by 2020. Import dependency therefore increases to 3.2bcm during the period. Details of BMI’s 10-year forecasts can be found in the appendix to this report.

Croatia now holds 13th place in BMI’s composite Business Environment Ratings (BERs) table, which combines upstream and downstream scores. It shares eighth place with Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan in BMI’s updated upstream ratings. The minimal oil and gas reserves and poor production outlook work against the country, but are offset somewhat by privatisation progress and reasonable country risk factors.

There is limited long-term scope for Croatia to pull away from its low-scoring rivals, given their greater hydrocarbons potential. Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan are much more likely to leave Croatia behind.

Croatia occupies last place in BMI’s downstream BERs, with few particularly high scores and no reason to expect near-term progress up the rankings. Oil and gas demand are among the region’s lowest, as is the oil demand growth outlook. Population, nominal GDP and growth in GDP per capita are also low-scoring areas.
SHOW LESS
READ MORE >

MAKING A DIFFERENCE

CHARITY PARTNERS

KEEP UP TO DATE

ON ALL THE LATEST PRODUCTS

Enter your email address:

TESTIMONIALS

The report was highly insightful covering both the big picture and diving into detail in a very easy to read story with plenty of graphics and examples of best practice. This report is valuable for anyone looking to help shape their mobile health strategy.Andy SquireDirectorGlobal Integrated Insights - Ophthalmology Franchise - Novartis