Falling rates of global trade growth have attracted much comment by analysts and officials, giving rise to a literature on the ‘global trade slowdown’ (Hoekman 2015, Constantinescu et al. 2016). The term ‘slowdown’ gives the impression of world trade losing momentum, but growing nonetheless. The sense of the global pie getting larger has the soothing implication that one nation’s export gains don’t come at the expense of another’s. But are we right to be so sanguine? World trade volume plateaued around January 2015 Using what is widely regarded as the best available data on global trade dynamics, namely, theWorld Trade...

Over the past year we have regularly contended that a far greater threat to the global economy than either corporate earnings, currency devaluations, rate cuts (or hikes), reserve outflow, or even the stock market, is the sudden, global trade crunch which has been deteriorating rapidly since late 2014 and has seen an even more dramatic drop off as 2015 is winding down. Actually, that is incorrect: global trade is merely a manifestation of the true state of the above listed items. ... We have in the past joked that the only thing that could possibly save the world from what...

The evidence continues to mount..."Most since Lehman" has become the new meme for macro-economic data in the US as day after day brings another lacklustre superlative to be dismissed with some excuse by the cognoscenti of sell-side economists... Of course, that is aside from anything related to aggregate jobs that is spewed by the government's official ministries of truth... (do not look at this chart)* * *So here are seven charts that scream "recession" is here...Retail Sales are weak - extremely weak. Retail Sales have not dropped this much YoY outside of a recession... And if Retail Sales are weak, then...

Most people that discuss the "economic collapse" focus on what is coming in the future. And without a doubt, we are on the verge of some incredibly hard times. But what often gets neglected is the immense permanent damage that has been done to the U.S. economy by the long-term economic collapse that we are already experiencing. In this article I am going to share with you 12 economic charts that show that we are in much, much worse shape than we were five or ten years ago. The long-term problems that are eating away at the foundations of our...

I hate to sound like a broken record, but the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) is once again pushing for bigger and more intrusive in the United States. The international bureaucracy’s “Economic Survey” of the United States reads like it was produced by some interns at the Democratic National Committee.Since the OECD is based in Paris, I suppose it’s not very surprising that it has a statist agenda. But it’s still offensive because American taxpayers finance the biggest portion of the bureaucracy’s budget.In other words, I’m subsidizing the people who are interfering with America’s domestic policy in hopes...

Here's What Economic Growth Looks Like, in 3 Charts: There's no doubt that the government shutdown caused unnecessary damage to the economy in October. But there's still a good story to tell: The economy is growing steadily. Here's what that looks like. 7.8 million private sector jobs have been added to the economy in just 44 months (see chart 1)! http://www.whitehouse.gov/sites/default/files/longform_economy_111213_816_0.jpg Real economic growth averaging 2.3%! (see chart 2) http://www.whitehouse.gov/sites/default/files/longform_economy_111213_816_0.jpg The 2013 deficit is just half of what Obama inherited from Bush! (see chart 3) http://www.whitehouse.gov/sites/default/files/longform_economy_111213_816_0.jpg http://www.whitehouse.gov/share/economic-growth-in-three-charts?utm_source=email&utm_medium=email&utm_content=email259-graphic&utm_campaign=econ

WASHINGTON (AP) — Starting in about a decade, Kingston, Jamaica, will probably be off-the-charts hot — permanently. Other places will soon follow. Singapore in 2028. Mexico City in 2031. Cairo in 2036. Phoenix and Honolulu in 2043. And eventually the whole world in 2047. A new study on global warming pinpoints the probable dates for when cities and ecosystems around the world will regularly experience hotter environments the likes of which they have never seen before. And for dozens of cities, mostly in the tropics, those dates are a generation or less away. "This paper is both innovative and sobering,"...

At this point, even Ezra Klein is conceding that the â€śrecoveryâ€ť growth rate of 1.7 percent is a â€śhorrificâ€ť new normal, so I can be accused of no partisan quest driving me to point out these depressing facts about our current economy, but a desire that we harness the good sense to abandon whatâ€™s not working and get the heck out of this mess. 1. Workforce participation: 2008-20132. Workforce participation 2008-2013, compared with 2000-2008:Fed charts via @bdomenech, who writes a great morning newsletter, The Transom, which you can sign up for, here.3. The surge of part-time employment:4. â€ś[O]f the 953K...

From the moment Bernanke spoke, Gold and Silver began to accelerate to the downside. Gold legged lower into the NYMEX pit close and faded further in search of the $1200 round number (trading at $1199.90). Down around 12% from the FOMC (gold is now -38% from its highs in 2011). Silver is following (down over 14% from FOMC) as the Gold-to-Silver ratio test 65x (double its lows in April 2011 around 32x) and back to the ratio that existed as Lehman failed. As we noted yesterday, somewhat oddly, as goes gold so goes AAPL... The other interesting on-again-off-again relationship of interest...

Gold And Silver - The End Is Near; Just Not In Sight Commodities / Gold and Silver 2013 June 22, 2013 - 04:00 PM GMT By: Michael Noonan Whatever expectation[s] you may have, expect the unexpected and unlike what you may expect. So far, that has been playing out quite nicely, and one of our expectations is that it will continue to unfold in the same manner, and to the ongoing surprise of most. "Gold will be at/above $2,000 by the end of the year." "Gold will reach $3,000 [$5,000, $10,000, etc] and silver $100, [$250, $500, etc]" "The central...

Has the Great Financial Crisis Finally Arrived? Stock-Markets / Credit Crisis 2013 June 23, 2013 - 05:33 AM GMT By: Graham Summers The technical damage from yesterday’s bloodbath was severe. Spain, which lead the “Europe is saved” party from the lows last year has just taken out its trendline. So much for the “crisis is over” proclamations. We’re heading back down in a big way. The S&P 500 has also taken out its trendline. QE Forever is dead and buried. What will hold the market up now? Copper is indicating that the entire post-2009 “recovery” is ending. We’re moving back...

A former staff member at the Kermit Gosnell abortion clinic testified today during his murder trial about the horrific conditions she saw at the abortion facility. Latosha Lewis, who worked a “medical assistant” despite a lack of former medical training, worked for eight years at the Gosnell abortion center and she testified that patients were frequently given too much medication and that record-keeping was substandard. She handled the chart related to Karnamaya Mongar, the woman Gosnell killed in an abortion, and testified that no weight was on her chart because the scale had broken one month prior to her abortion....

The Two Ugliest Charts In The World Sam RoMarch 29, 2013, 12:05 PMThe S&P 500 closed at an all-time high yesterday. However, the jaw-dropping world-wide bull market belies the expectations for growth in global GDP and stock market earnings. "The 25% rally in global equities from last June seems to be driven by a growing conviction that the worst is over and tail risks are fading," wrote Morgan Stanley's Gerard Minack in a research note last week. "This, so far, is not about pricing in a notably stronger economic or earnings outlook." In other words, the likelihood of worst-case scenarios...

You work hard, stretch every penny, but chances are you pay a higher tax rate than him: Mitt Romney made $20 million dollars in 2010, but paid only 14% in taxes—probably less than you. Now he has a plan that will give millionaires another tax break and raises taxes on middle class families by up to $2000 dollars a year. Mitt Romney's middle class tax increase: he pays less, you pay more.

Mitt Romney's latest campaign setback is a leaked video that shows him slagging the 47 percent of the population who, he says, will always vote for Barack Obama, because they want everything for free from the government.The 47 percent number presumably refers to the percent of the population who don't pay Federal Income Taxes, which of course is just one kind of tax.From the Tax Policy Center, these three pie charts show who those people are.Kevin Roose at NYMag puts the data into words: But back to the 47 percent. There are two primary ways to pay no (or negative)...

In a column on Tuesday, Rex Nutting of MarketWatch ran some budget numbers and concluded the following: "Almost everyone believes that Obama has presided over a massive increase in federal spending, an “inferno” of spending that threatens our jobs, our businesses and our children’s future. Even Democrats seem to think it’s true. But it didn’t happen...." The shocking, contrarian piece was widely circulated in liberal circles and was even cited on Wednesday by White House spokesman Jay Carney. But there were a few problems with Nutting’s numbers....

Pew is out with a new study (.pdf) about the long-term unemployed in America. The long-tern unemployed are people who have been unemployed at least a year, and as you can see (and as you should know by know), the scale of the problem these days is way bigger than it has been during any other period over the last half a century. Click the chart to enlarge. What's interesting is that the population that makes up the long-term unemployed is very different than the unemployed population as a whole. Check out this breakdown of the unemployed and long-term unemployed...

Quick Notes About the Unemployment Rate US Unemployment Rate dropped .01 to 8.2% In the last year, the civilian population rose by 3,604,000. Yet the labor force only rose by 1,315,000. Those not in the labor force rose by 2,289,000. The Civilian Labor Force fell by 164,000. Those "Not in Labor Force" increased by 310,000. If you are not in the labor force, you are not counted as unemployed. Those "Not in Labor Force" is at a new record high of 87,897,000. By the Household Survey, the number of people employed fell by 31,000. By the Household...

Quick Notes About the Unemployment Rate In the last year, the civilian population rose by 3,584,000. Yet the labor force only rose by 1,569,000. Those not in the labor force rose by 2,014,000. In February, the Civilian Labor Force rose by 476,000. In February, those "Not in Labor Force" decreased by 310,000. If you are not in the labor force, you are not counted as unemployed. Participation Rate rose .2 to 63.9% Were it not for people dropping out of the labor force, the unemployment rate would be well over 11%. Over the past several years people have...