Mysteries in race for the House

As the 2014 House election enters its final hours, this much is certain: Republicans will retain control of the chamber, and perhaps win their largest majority since the 1940s.

After that, there are all sorts of wild cards.

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Will this election season — which already saw House Majority Leader Eric Cantor lose his primary — produce any more upsets? Will Republicans succeed in adding diversity to their ranks? Will a GOP-friendly environment enable the party to make inroads in the Northeast?

And what will happen to the “kissing congressman” and other scandal-plagued pols?

Here are seven story lines to watch in the House as the returns roll in:

Sleeper central

Voters across the country are disillusioned and deeply unhappy with both parties — a recipe, pollsters say, for an election night full of surprises. Even some candidates long seen as safe could lose.

Over the past few weeks, national Democrats have directed resources toward protecting seats in reliably liberal areas such as Honolulu and Santa Barbara. They’re also investing in a Las Vegas district that Republicans are suddenly becoming excited about winning, even though it favors Democrats.

Republicans are also fretting they could fall victim to some upsets. Among the potential losers are New Jersey Rep. Scott Garrett and Michigan Rep. Fred Upton, both of whom are accustomed to easy reelection wins in conservative districts. Upton, the House Energy and Commerce Committee chairman, launched a late batch of TV ads, an indication that he’s taking his race seriously.

Will any of these seats fall? Probably not. But just a few months after Cantor’s shocking defeat, paranoia from both parties is running high — and neither is taking chances.

The underachievers

They have everything going for them: a favorable national environment, an unpopular president to run against and vulnerable opponents. But some Republicans have undermined themselves by running lackluster campaigns.

Keep an eye on Arizona Republican Andy Tobin, whose tepid fundraising has frustrated GOP strategists. Tobin, a state House speaker, has raised only about $1 million — about one-third of his opponent, Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick, one of the most endangered Democratic incumbents in the country. Republican groups have had to bail Tobin out, spending over $6.3 million on his behalf.

Nebraska Rep. Lee Terry, meanwhile, has been damaged by comments he made during the government shutdown, when he said he would continue receiving a federal salary because he had a “nice house” to pay for.

Florida Rep. Steve Southerland should be skating to reelection in a conservative Panhandle-area seat. But he took a hit when it was revealed that he held a men-only fundraiser and then defended it by asking rhetorically whether his Democratic opponent, Gwen Graham, had ever been to a “lingerie shower.”

The Southern Dems

Even as President Barack Obama drags down his party’s candidates, Democrats are mounting surprisingly strong campaigns in the region where he’s most unpopular: the South.

The party’s best hope for a pickup may be in Florida, where polls show Graham, a Leon County schools official and a daughter of former Sen. Bob Graham, in a tight race with Southerland. There are other opportunities: In central Arkansas, Patrick Henry Hays, the former mayor of North Little Rock, is waging a competitive bid; so is West Virginia Democrat Nick Casey, a former state party chairman.

There’s even optimism among some Democrats that James Lee Witt, a former Clinton administration official, is gaining momentum in a deeply conservative southern Arkansas district.

In each race, the Democrats have combated GOP attempts to tie them to the Obama White House by casting themselves as bipartisan and willing to buck their party.

While Democrats attempt to make inroads in the South, Republicans are trying to win races in a region that’s been largely elusive for them: the Northeast.

Republicans could knock off up to three incumbents in New York, where they are waging serious challenges to Democratic Reps. Tim Bishop, Sean Patrick Maloney, and Dan Maffei. The GOP also is making a play for two seats in New Hampshire and one seat each in Maine and Massachusetts.

The Northeastern Republicans are casting themselves as moderate and independent of the tea party. One of the New York hopefuls, former Rep. Nan Hayworth, is running a TV commercial spotlighting a testimonial from her openly gay son, Will.

“Nan Hayworth is no extremist,” he says in the ad, which ends with a mom-to-son kiss. “She’s my mom. She’s kind, compassionate. She’s always been there for me.”