Looking Ahead: 2014 Salary Cap Estimates

With the 2013 season effectively over for many teams I thought it would be a good time to take a look ahead at salary cap space in 2014. I think at this point we have a pretty good idea about cap carryover and can base the salary cap in 2014 on an estimated $125 million.

While these estimates should provide a pretty good guide there are a few things to take into account. First of all remember that these are OTC’s salary estimates (which are usually pretty accurate) and not a confirmed report. Second, the 2014 salary commitments will rise due to the earning of contract escalators for performance. For teams with 2010 draft picks on the roster these can reduce cap space by millions. Third, while we estimate carryover figures we do not have any adjustments yet. Adjustments can be positive (such as accounting for bonus money forfeited due to drug suspensions) or negative (NLTBEs actually earned). These adjustments can apply on both a teamwide and an individual basis. In many cases these are huge amounts that essentially lead to double counting. Imagine if a player has a NLTBE bonus in 2013 and 2014 for $2 million and he earns that bonus in 2013. What happens is that the teams cap space will be reduced in 2014 by $2 million to account for the earning of the NLTBE and the individuals cap charge will increase in 2014 by another $2 million to reflect the change in status from NLTBE to LTBE. Just like that a team has lost $4 million in projected cap space.

In the cap table you will notice two estimates. The first estimate is the cap space estimated by the current size of the roster. The second estimate is a teams’ “effective cap space” which is the amount of cap room that a team will have once its roster reaches 51 players. Usually teams sign players to futures contracts in January and February to flesh out their roster. The minimum salary for these players will be $420,000. Some receive small bonuses but for the most part $420,000 is a good cap charge estimate.

By our estimates the average cap space next year should be just under $18 million per team with $14.7 million being the effective cap space. The teams with big spending allowances will be the Raiders ($70.8M/$62.8M), Jaguars (57.0M/54.9M), Browns ($48.5M/$48.5M), Bears ($45.6M/$36.4M), Colts ($37.7M/$34.3M), Dolphins ($37.7M/$33M), and Bills ($35.1M/$32.2M).

Featured Contract

Drew Brees signed a one year contract extension worth $24.25 million, all of which is guaranteed, on September 7, 2016 with the Saints. Brees, who had been scheduled to earn $20 million in 2016 will now earn $31.25 million, including a $30 million signing bonus per Andrew Brandt. The contract contains three voidable contract years to prorate the signing bonus. The new contract reduces Brees cap number from $30 million to $17.25 million in 2016. Brees has a no trade clause and can not be franchise tagged when his contract voids. If the contract voids and Brees is not extended the Saints will carry a dead money charge of $18 million in 2019 for Brees. The deadline for the void is the final day of the 2017 league year.