Cycles are a tool and should not be used to the exclusion of other tools. There is always the possibility (high probability long term) that the data will be misinterpreted or a relevant fact over looked. So use cycles to check your analysis, not as the only reason to make a decision. Interpretation is the opinion of the author and may be incorrect and should be viewed in that light.

Sunday, November 24, 2013

Looking for clues

As we follow the cycles we look for other clues (context) as to what the market may do over the next few months. Saw a chart of G7 industrial output and leading indicators. Noted the similarity between 2005-07 and 2011-13. So I placed the 2005-07 results underneath the 2011-13 results so you could observe what I saw. Does this mean we see another 2009? not necessarily, but then maybe we see that or worse.

Inlet Happy Thanksgiving to you and yours. I've been catching up on some readings of the market and everyone is seeing a melt up into the end of the year. I believe you are seeing a decline. Looking forward to your update.

c88 - I try to interpret what the cycles are saying. I don't always hit the mark. I think we are due a correction, then possibly a rally in the spring. What we are sure of without reservation is that each day that passes we are one day closer to a major correction and need to be watchful for that.

Cycle Dawg

Followers

Old as dirt

I have long been a proponent of TA. I have looked at a lot of different methods. In the 70s I maintained about 50 P&F charts manually (pre Web). Some TA approaches work better than others.
In the end I decided that cycles were as good as any, much simplier than most to use and required less time to do.
You may have your own TA and I encourage you to use it and only use my post/opinions as a check on your TA.