China May Be Building $500 Billion Worth of Unnecessary Coal Plants

China could be throwing away as much as $490 billion building coal-fired power plants it doesn’t need, according to a new study.

Even as China had 895 gigawatts of existing coal generating capacity, by this summer only half of it was being used. Yet the country has another 205 gigawatts under construction and even more planned, says London-based Carbon Tracker Initiative, which released the study. Carbon Tracker argues that China’s slowing demand for electricity as it moves away from heavy industry should obviate the need for more coal plants.

The findings are surprising in part because China has been taking significant steps to reduce its coal consumption. This year will likely mark the third consecutive year of a reduction in coal use, according to researchers. Reducing coal use is a major way China expects to hit the carbon dioxide emissions reduction targets it agreed to under the Paris Agreement.

But local governments are behind many of the wasteful projects that the central government is having a hard time trying to control.

The National Development and Reform Commission, which helps set national policy, has already halted 17 gigawatts of coal plants under construction, Carbon Tracker points out, and is targeting more.

Coal is a killer in China. Coal burning and the secondary effects of sulfate and nitrate contribute to almost half of the dangerous air pollutants in China’s polluted cities, compared to 20% from car emissions.

Indeed, a subdued property market is expected to drag on growth in the first two quarters next year, as policymakers introduce curbs to cool home prices, which could hit profits of companies producing construction materials.

Profits in October rose 9.8% to 616.1 billion yuan ($89.1 billion), the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) said in a statement on Sunday. Profits in September rose 7.7%.

Industrial profits rose 8.6% in the first 10 months from the same period a year earlier, similar to an 8.4% growth rate in the first nine months of the year.

Profits in the coal mining sector rose 112.9% for January-October from the same period a year earlier while manufacturing profits rose 13.2%.

“Although October industrial profit growth picked up, the structure of growth was not ideal,” NBS official He Ping said in a statement accompanying the data.

Profit growth was overly reliant on rising prices, and industrial firms need organic improvement to see better results, He added.

Profits for iron and steel production and processing companies rose 310.2% in January-October.

For more on business in China, watch Fortune’s video:

China’s producer prices jumped more than expected in October as prices of coal and other raw materials surged in the midst of a supply crunch and a pick-up in the economy. The producer price index is also expected to stay positive in coming months.

Chinese industrial firms’ liabilities at the end of October were 5.1% higher than at the same point last year and rose slower than assets.

The data covers large enterprises with annual revenues of more than 20 million yuan from their main operations.

Profits at state firms rose 0.4% in the first 10 months of 2016 from a year earlier, marking the first increase in year-to-date earnings for state-owned companies this year, the finance ministry said on Friday.

China’s industrial profits have rebounded strongly this year after falling last year, boosted by a recovery in commodities prices as supply tightened due to a capacity reduction drive and an infrastructure boom.

Coal Price Surge Sets Miners Against Activists by English Seaside

In northeastern England, a battle is raging between grass roots campaigners and a company intent on digging a new open cast mine as world coal prices soar.

A year after Britain closed its last deep coal mine and pledged to phase out coal-fired power generation, the economics of mining have been transformed.

Coal prices have risen by well over 100% this year to $100 a ton. Some mining stocks have risen even more, spurred by U.S. President-elect Donald Trump’s pledges to revive coal and pull out of the Paris Agreement on climate change.

Some wonder how long the coal price surge will last, but in Northumberland, the Banks Group is pressing ahead with plans for a new mine despite opposition from local environmentalists.

Northumberland County Council agreed that Banks could extract 3 million tons of coal by cutting an open cast mine near Druridge Bay, a scenic windswept arc of white sand and grassy dunes on the North Sea coast.

The government has “called in” the application, meaning there will be a public enquiry next year.

Jeannie Kielty, who works on community relations for Banks, says open cast is part of the social fabric of the northeast, an area with a long history of coal mining.

“The benefits that come from these sites can’t be over-stated,” she says. “We are frustrated with the call-in because it delays us, but we still believe we can work the site.”

On the other side of the argument is the Save Druridge Bay campaign, which meets in the Drift Cafe, a haven for dog-walkers and bird-watchers not far from Highthorn, the site of the proposed mine.

There is a hard core of eight campaigners, led by the cafe owner Duncan Lawrence. It also has high-profile support from television personality and comedian Bill Oddie, a keen bird watcher who appreciates the pink-footed geese that winter among the dunes.

“Suddenly someone wants to turn the clock back in some really perverse way,” Oddie said at a campaigning beach party in May. “It’s sacrilege.”

Banks has overcome opposition in the past, appealing successfully against a ban on developing another site in the area at Shotton.

Situated on the Blagdon Estate owned by Matt Ridley, a peer and Conservative politician who has said climate change has done more good than harm, Shotton has been mined by Banks since 2008.

Banks says all the coal at Shotton and Highthorn can be extracted by the government’s 2025 deadline for phasing out coal-fired power generation.

But the company plans to expand. In September, Banks announced it was exporting coal to Spain and it has begun canvassing opinion on a project to extract 800,000 tons of coal at Dewley Hill near Newcastle.

British planning rules and the government’s drive to close coal-fired power stations do allow coal mining in some circumstances.

The phase-out plans apply only to so-called unabated coal, meaning a company that has the technology to reduce emissions can carry on generating power with coal.

For more on coal, watch:

Exceptions can also be made if there is a risk that supplies will be disrupted, a danger heightened by Britain’s vote to leave the European Union. That makes the country more reliant on its own resources and less sure it can tap into the European power grid.

Big banks say they have stopped funding coal in Britain, although they may consider projects in some emerging economies.

For shareholders, it made financial sense to get out of the industry a year ago, when mining stocks and coal prices were collapsing. Now the mining sector offers attractive yields at a time when interest rates are at record lows.

Shares in Glencore, the world’s biggest shipper of seaborne coal, have risen more than 200 percent since January.

Fossil Free, which campaigns against fossil fuels, says the shift towards a low carbon economy is irreversible. But while 580 international investment institutions pledged to abandon coal in 2015, the group does not know how many have kept their promise.

Northumberland County Council planning officer Frances Wilkinson, who prepared the report recommending approval for Highthorn, faced a different question.

She found the decision very difficult as the environmental impact and the benefits were “finely balanced.”

She was guided, she said, by a clause in planning regulations that permission should not be given for coal mining unless the proposal is environmentally acceptable or can be made so, or “it provides national, local or community benefits which clearly outweigh the likely impacts.”

Banks says Highthorn will employ 100 people and generate 48 million pounds ($60 million) in related contracts and other benefits to the community.

A well-connected Indonesian marine renewable energy company and OpenHydro, a unit of French state-owned naval defense company DCNS, aim to be the first to plug into the vast untapped tidal energy potential of the world’s biggest archipelago.

Renewables have so far played little part in Indonesia’s power sector, despite the country sitting on the world’s biggest geothermal reserves and being bathed in sunshine, crowded out by an abundance of cheap coal and bureaucratic bottlenecks.

But declining costs of renewable electricity and a new push by President Joko Widodo to develop renewables in the remote eastern parts of the archipelago are changing the picture.

With narrow straits straddling the Indian and Pacific oceans, Indonesia has significant tidal power potential, and PT Arus Indonesia Raya (AIR) and OpenHydro plan to build the country’s first such project.

“This project is important for Indonesia and the world so we can stop burning coal,” AIR president director Panji Adhikumoro Soeharto told Reuters.

OpenHydro, a company specializing in the design and manufacture of marine turbines to generate renewable energy from tidal streams, already has projects in Japan, Britain, France and Canada.

The AIR and OpenHydro model would appeal to renewable energy investors because it is relatively inexpensive and low in maintenance compared with other renewables, said Soeharto, grandchild of former Indonesian president Suharto.

“We’re doing the investment ourselves, with banks,” he said. He did not say how much had been invested so far.

According to the partners, Indonesia has the potential for up to 60 gigawatts of tidal power, more than Indonesia’s total electricity capacity of just over 50 gigawatts last year.

Land and permitting issues that often hold up power infrastructure projects should be no obstacle for AIR, Soeharto said, referring to plans to build a factory in Indonesia and utilize 70 percent local content in their turbines.

The turbines, which sit on the seabed, can cost up to $7 million each in Europe, a cost PT AIR plans to slash to as little as $4 million, Soeharto said.

“The only thing we can’t produce is the magnets – French technology. Maybe in future we’ll study this.”

Over the next three years, the two companies plan to develop up to 20 2-megawatt turbines in a pilot tidal array in the Bali strait, which will supply power directly to state energy company Pertamina, Soeharto said.

According to a release on the DCNS website, the Indonesian project is targeted to reach 300MW of installed capacity by 2023.

Indonesia wants renewable energy to make up around a quarter of its total by 2025 from around 5% now, though critics have questioned its seriousness in meeting its climate goals, and its overall plans to ramp up power production have got off to a slow start.

Over the past two years the cost of producing solar and onshore wind power had begun to reach a level where it was competitive with fossil fuels, below 10 cents per kilowatt hour, he said.

“It is beginning to happen.”

For more on green power, watch:

India and China, Indonesia’s two biggest coal buyers, are accelerating the global transformation from coal to cleaner energy sources. Some of Indonesia’s biggest coal miners, such as state-owned Bukit Asam and Adaro, are also diversifying into renewables.

“Renewable energy is a must. It’s no longer an option. We don’t have any choice,” recently appointed deputy energy minister Arcandra Tahar said at a forum in Jakarta last week.

While incentives will be needed to kickstart renewable developments in Indonesia, on a per-kilowatt-hour basis they may already be cheaper than the diesel that many remote islands currently rely on for power, Tahar said.

By assisting state electricity company Perusahaan Listrik Negara (PLN) to develop renewable energy, Indonesia could phase out diesel use and reduce its costly fuel subsidy bill, Tahar said, adding that his office was making this a priority over the next three years.

China’s Trade Numbers Come in Weaker Than Expected

China‘s exports and imports fell more than expected in October, with weak domestic and global demand adding to doubts that a pick-up in economic activity in the world’s largest trading nation can be sustained.

October exports fell 7.3% from a year earlier, while imports shrank 1.4%, official data showed on Tuesday, raising fears that a broader recovery seen in recent months could falter.

While recent data had suggested the world’s second-largest economy was steadying, analysts have warned that a property boom which has generated a significant share of the growth may be peaking, dampening demand for building materials from cement to steel.

Indeed, China‘s imports of iron ore, crude oil, coal and copper all fell in October, after its robust demand drove global prices of many major commodities higher this year.

Though some analysts argued the decline may be seasonal, data from industry consultancy Custeel.com suggested steel mills have been cutting output and even starting maintenance work earlier than usual as soaring costs for raw materials such as iron ore and coal squeeze profits.

Analysts polled by Reuters had expected October exports to have fallen 6% from a year earlier, compared to a 10% contraction in September. Imports had been expected to drop 1%, after falling 1.9% in September.

“Our conclusion is that external demand remains sluggish but it has not worsened significantly. Although both exports and imports have fallen short of expectations, they have improved on a year-on-year basis,” economists at ANZ said in a note, noting the rate of decline in October had moderated from September.

Still, China‘s exports in the first 10 months of the year fell 7.7% from the same period a year earlier, while imports dropped 7.5%.

Exports have dragged on economic growth this year as global demand remains stubbornly sluggish, forcing policymakers to rely on higher government spending and record bank lending to boost activity. Weak exports knocked 7.8% off the country’s GDP growth in the first three quarters of this year.

Imports fell for the second month in a row in October after rising for the first time in nearly two years in August.

That left the country with a trade surplus of $49.06 billion for the month, versus forecasts of $51.70 billion, and September’s $41.99 billion.

In yuan-denominated terms, the trade numbers weren’t as bad, indicating that the currency’s slide to six-year lows has provided some support for exporters. Yuan-denominated shipments have only fallen 2.0% this year, with imports down 1.8%.

“Yuan depreciation should be positive for exports, but it only provides some support for exporters when they convert dollar income into yuan, but cannot reverse the trend,” said Merchants Securities economist Liu Yaxin in Shenzhen.

COMMODITY IMPORTS SLOWING

China‘s October iron ore imports were the lowest since February, while imports of copper, a key material used in building construction, fell to a 21-month low.

Coal imports fell nearly 12% from September despite worries that power companies have low inventories heading into winter.

“The ongoing cyclical rebound in China‘s economy should support imports for another quarter or two but is unlikely to last much longer given that the boost to growth from earlier policy easing is set to fade before long,” Capital Economics’ China economist Julian Evans-Pritchard said in a note.

Exports to the United States fell 5.6% in October, compared to an 8.1% decline in September, while shipments to the EU fell 8.7%, a slight improvement from the previous month.

China‘s imports from Southeast Asia rose 18.4% in October, while those from Australia increased 16.3%, both significant improvements from recent months.

For more on business in China, watch Fortune’s video:

The commerce ministry said last week that China will face relatively large downward pressure on foreign trade in the fourth quarter, with uncertainties continuing into 2017.

To be sure, China factory surveys for October showed activity at two-year highs, and trends for other major Asian exporters point to positive trends in the region.

China‘s economy expanded at a steady 6.7% in the third quarter and looks set to hit Beijing’s full-year target, fueled by stronger government spending and a red-hot property market that are adding to its growing pile of debt.

BHP Just Gave Its Most Positive Assessment in 5 Years

BHP Billiton, the world’s biggest diversified miner, said on Wednesday it was finally detecting indications of a commodity market turnaround, giving its most upbeat assessment in about five years.

A recovery would be a particular boon for the global miner which has kept production humming through a multi-year collapse in commodities markets, although it cautioned that raw material supply was still outpacing demand despite stronger steel consumption in China.

“We have seen early signs of markets rebalancing,” Chief Executive Andrew Mackenzie said in releasing BHP‘s September quarter production report and guidance update.

“Fundamentals suggest both oil and gas markets will improve over the next 12 to 18 months. Iron ore and metallurgical coal prices have been stronger than expected, although we continue to expect supply to grow more quickly than demand in the near term,” he said.

BHP bhpbeat analysts’ estimates for iron ore and petroleum production and just missed projections for output of metallurgical coal – three commodities leading the resurgence.

“This is probably the most positive assessment by BHP in five years,” James Wilson, an analyst for Argonaut Securities, said.

Most forecasters earlier in the year were calling for Chinese steel production and consumption to contract as its economy recoils, prolonging the pain for mining companies like BHP.

Morgan Stanley estimates that China’s implied apparent steel consumption in September rose 12.5% from a year ago and 2.8% from the previous month. That is good news for mining companies looking to China to turn around otherwise sluggish demand.

China’s iron ore imports climbed to 93 million tonnes in September, the second highest on record. Spot iron ore last stood at $58 a tonne, the highest in over a month.

Metallurgical coal prices have more than doubled since January to around $230 a tonne, while nickel has gained 16%.

BHP said it was on track to meet its fiscal 2017 production guidance for iron ore of 265 million to 275 million tonnes versus 257 million last year after posting a modest 1% decline in output to 67 million tonnes in the September quarter.

For more market analysis, watch Fortune’s video:

Guidance for copper production was under review following a power disruption this month at the Olympic Dam mine, but otherwise BHP stuck with earlier estimates for its other businesses.

Fellow Australian miners Rio Tinto and Fortescue Metals Group are scheduled to release operations data and updated guidance on Thursday and are also expected to deliver more upbeat business outlooks.

China’s Gloomy Trade Numbers Trigger Fears of a Faltering Recovery

China’s September exports fell 10% from a year earlier, far worse than expected, while imports unexpectedly shrank after picking up in August, suggesting signs of steadying in the world’s second-largest economy may be short-lived.

The disappointing trade figures pointed to weaker demand both at home and aboard, and deepened concerns over the latest depreciation in China’s yuan currency, which hit a fresh six-year low against a firming U.S. dollar on Thursday.

“This comes on the heels of weak South Korean trade data, and it definitely make us worry about to what extent global demand is improving,” said Luis Kujis, head of Asia economics at Oxford Economics in Hong Kong.

Asian stocks tumbled to three-week lows and U.S. stock futures and Treasury yields fell after the data, while copper prices in London slipped.

China’s exports had been expected to fall 3%, slightly worse than in August as global demand for Asian goods remains stubbornly weak despite heading into what is usually the peak year-end shopping season.

Weaker demand for Chinese goods was seen in nearly all of its major markets in the U.S., Europe and much of Asia.

Imports shrank 1.9%, dashing hopes for a second rise in a row. Imports had unexpectedly grown 1.5% in August, the first expansion in nearly two years, on stronger demand for coal and commodities such as iron ore which are feeding a construction boom.

That left China with a trade surplus of $41.99 billion for the month, the lowest in six months, the General Administration of Customs said on Thursday. Analysts had expected it to expand slightly to $53 billion.

The weaker trade readings could raise concerns about the other September data and third-quarter GDP over the coming week. Economists had expected that data to show the economy was stabilizing and perhaps even slowly picking up.

The import reversal raises questions over the strength of the recent recovery in domestic demand, Julian Evans-Pritchard at Capital Economics said in a note.

“This could be an early sign that the recent recovery in economic activity is losing momentum, although we would caution against reading too much into a single data point given the volatility of the trade figures,” he said.

“The continued underwhelming performance of Chinese exports adds weight to our view that the People’s Bank will maintain its recent policy of gradual trade-weighted renminbi (yuan) depreciation in coming quarters,” he added.

Last month, the World Trade Organization cut its forecast for global trade growth this year by more than a third to 1.7%, reflecting a slowdown in China and falling levels of imports into the United States.

DOUBTS ABOUT RECOVERY

To be sure, China’s imports of crude oil rose 18% on-year to a daily record, while iron ore purchases surged to the second highest on record, suggesting its demand for global commodities is hardly falling off a cliff.

Steel mills, in particular, appear to be running hot to meet demand from a housing boom and government infrastructure projects, which are driving higher profits.

But copper, coal and soybean imports all fell from August.

“China imported too much copper in the beginning of this year,” said Chris Wu, an analyst at CRU Beijing, a metals consulting firm. “The lagging effect from the property market is still helping with some of the end use sectors for example wire and cables and white goods, but we are afraid the boom is close to the end.”

A Customs spokesperson said on Thursday rising imports of oil and other commodities showed demand is improving, adding that the government’s trade policies is having positive effects.

For more on China, watch Fortune’s video:

After a rough start to the year, China’s economy has shown signs of steadying thanks largely to the building boom, but some analysts warn the housing frenzy may be peaking as more cities impose restrictions on home buying to keep prices from overheating.

Data have also highlighted growing imbalances in China’s economy, with growth increasingly reliant on government spending as private investment falls to record lows. Larger state firms are expanding, likely thanks to Beijing’s largesse, but smaller manufacturers continue to struggle.

This Is How Political the Decline Of Coal Has Become

Showing just how political the decline of the U.S. coal industry has become, Appalachia’s infamous imprisoned coal baron just claimed he’s a “political prisoner.”

Five months ago, the former CEO of coal giant Massey Energy, Don Blankenship, headed to prison in Taft, Calif. to serve out a year-long sentence. He was convicted for conspiring to willfully violate mine safety standards following an explosion that killed 29 coal miners, the worst coal mining disaster in decades.

In the document, he refers to negative statements made by President Obama and Senator Joe Manchin before his conviction, and claims that Democrats and unions provided fuel for his prosecution. He also mentions Democratic Presidential candidate Hillary Clinton, whom he protested at an event before he headed to prison.

That Blankenship, a reviled executive and a symbol of the aging American coal industry, is equating his conviction with politics demonstrates just how political the loss of American coal jobs and the bankruptcy of coal companies has become.

It was also echoed on the country’s main stage on Tuesday night during the first and only Vice Presidential debate. Republican Vice Presidential candidate Mike Pence repeatedly referred to a supposed “war on coal” conducted by Democratic Presidential candidate Hillary Clinton. Pence’s statements follow those of his running mate, Republican Presidential candidate Donald Trump, in speeches over the last few weeks.

Through her embrace of the solar and wind industries, Clinton has acknowledged that coal workers will lose jobs as the coal industry continues to decline. Trump and Pence have used those words to say she’s anti-coal and to gain support in states with coal interests. She’s also said that her words have been taken out of context and that she misspoke. Trump has claimed that if elected he’ll bring coal jobs back to states like West Virginia.

However, much of the decline in the coal industry has been driven by private industry and an economic transformation of U.S. electricity infrastructure. Aging coal plans have been retiring while cheaper, cleaner natural gas has quickly risen up as a low cost source to replace that coal power. As wind and solar farms continue to drop in price, clean energy is being adopted rapidly as well.

For more on regulations of coal plants, watch:

Added to that transformation, the Obama administration’s policies like the Clean Power Plan—the highly controversial policy to push power plants to lower greenhouse gas emissions—will accelerate that already-occurring transition. The result is that the U.S. coal industry has gotten absolutely pummeled. Giants like Peabody Energy have declared bankruptcy, and coal workers across coal states have lost jobs.

Obama Power Plant Rules Face Key Test in Court

(Reuters) – The centerpiece of President Barack Obama’s climate change strategy faced a key test on Tuesday as conservative appeals court judges questioned whether his administration overstepped its legal authority under an air pollution law to make sweeping changes to the U.S. electric sector.

Twenty-seven states led by coal-producer West Virginia and industry groups are challenging the Environmental Protection Agency’s Clean Power Plan rules before 10 judges of the U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit.

They argue that the EPA overstepped its regulatory authority under the federal Clean Air Act when the agency issued rules to curb greenhouse emissions mainly from coal-fired power plants. The U.S. Supreme Court has put the regulations on hold while the case is litigated.

Tuesday’s highly anticipated arguments drew a crowd of hundreds at sunrise to watch the opponents face off against the EPA, 18 states and some supportive power companies. The EPA told the judges that the agency had the power under the Clean Air Act to craft the rule, and that it was cost-effective and achievable.

The challengers could face an uphill battle to win over a majority of the 10 judges, six of whom are Democratic appointees.

Judge Brett Kavanaugh, appointed by former President George W. Bush, said while he understands the political and moral obligation to address global warming and the importance of the United States to international climate action, the Clean Power Plan’s impact on the U.S. economy and on certain coal-reliant communities should require Congress to have a say.

“This is a huge case. It has huge economic consequences,” said Kavanaugh.

He added that climate change does not give the EPA a “blank check” to use the Clean Air Act flexibly.

For more about coal, watch:

Judge Thomas Griffith, another Bush appointee, questioned: “Why is this (debate) not going-on on the Congress floor but in front of a room full of unelected judges?”

The EPA argued before that the Supreme Court has already given the EPA authority in previous cases to use the section of the Clean Air Act at issue to regulate greenhouse gas emissions.

Justice Department lawyer Eric Hostetler, representing the EPA, said the agency designed the rule to be cost effective and “deepen” the shift already taking place toward cleaner energy.

“The EPA looked at what was going on in the real world,” he said, noting that most states are already shifting the make-up of their electric generation.

In comments indicating support for the government’s position, Judge Judith Rogers, appointed to the court by former President Bill Clinton, said the EPA should not close its eyes to trends in the electric sector which have seen utilities diversify their energy mix.

“You can’t survive in this market unless you do that,” she said. Some of the other Democratic appointees voiced similar sentiments indicating they did not think the regulations constituted a major shift as the challengers argue.

The Clean Power Plan was designed to lower carbon emissions from U.S. power plants by 2030 to 32 percent below 2005 levels. Power plants are the largest source of U.S. carbon emissions.

The Clean Power Plan is the main tool for the United States to meet the emissions reduction target it pledged to reach at U.N. climate talks in Paris last December.

The fate of the Clean Power Plan was thrown into question on Feb. 9 when the Supreme Court made a surprise 5-4 decision to grant a request by the challengers to put the rule on hold while the appeals court considered the matter.

The eventual appeals court ruling could decide the case, even if it goes to the Supreme Court. The Feb. 13 death of conservative Justice Antonin Scalia left the court ideologically split with four conservatives and four liberals. A 4-4 ruling by the high court would leave in place the appeals court ruling.

GARLAND STEPS ASIDE

The case is being heard by 10 judges rather than 11 because the court’s chief judge, Merrick Garland, has recused himself from the case. Garland is Obama’s nominee to replace Scalia.

A 5-5 ruling would leave the regulations in place.

A ruling is unlikely before the end of the year and possibly not until after Obama leaves office on Jan. 20.

The outcome of the Nov. 8 presidential election could be pivotal for the regulations. If Republican Donald Trump wins, the government could reverse the rules or decline to appeal to the Supreme Court should the appeals court strike them down. If Democrat Hillary Clinton is elected, the losing side in the appeals court ruling could be expected to take the case to the Supreme Court.

If the case does reach the high court, it may not make it in time for the justices to hear it during the court term that begins next Monday and ends in June.

Renewables Not Cost Competitive Until Mid-Century, Says Glencore

Renewable energy will not be cost competitive with fossil fuels until 2050, Glencore said on Tuesday, much later than energy organizations forecast and supporting the mining and trading giant’s case for continued investment in coal.

Glencore glncy has said coal is still an investment opportunity, forecasting global demand will grow by 7 percent by 2030, driven by emerging economies and industrial demand, and halting spending would halve seaborne supplies in 15 years’ time.

Glencore Chairman Tony Hayward told a conference in London on Tuesday that, like oil companies, the group would get a return on its investment.

Energy company officials attending the same conference, the Institute of Directors’ (IoD) annual convention, believe parity will come much earlier.

Wilfrid Petrie, UK and Ireland chief executive at French gas and power group Engie, said he thought it would be as early as in five years’ time, whereas David Brooks, managing director of supply at UK renewable energy supplier Good Energy, said it could happen by 2020, adding that wind was already at cost parity with fossil fuels.

India’s Coal Consumption Problem

Research by the International Energy Agency and other organizations has shown that renewable energy sources such as wind and solar can now produce electricity in some parts of the world at a price close to that generated by fossil fuels such as coal and gas.

Hayward, who is also chairman of oil explorer Genel Energy and a former boss of BP, said great technological strides would be needed for renewables to become overall as cost competitive as fossil fuels before mid-century.

“In 15 years’ time, if someone really does achieve a technological breakthrough akin to a mobile phone, an iPhone, that will change the energy picture going forward,” he said.