Philadelphia Phillies catcher prospect Jorge Alfaro had a mostly successful season in the minor leagues in 2016. Here is my analysis of Mr. Alfaro that looks closely at his 2016 performance. I will not be looking at the 17 plate appearances that he had in major league baseball in 2016 though, because of the small sample size. I will finish with a look towards the future. Stats courtesy of FanGraphs.com.

Traditional 5 x 5 Roto Stats:

In AA ball Mr. Alfaro had 435 plate appearances. He hit for a .285 average with 15 home runs, 68 runs and 67 RBI’s. He had 3 steals in 5 attempts.

Power Sabermetric Stats:

2016 saw an AA ball isolated power (ISO) of .173. Anyone at or under .200 I consider a majority singles hitter. ISO tends to stabilize at about 160 at-bats. So, if a player is hitting for power through his first 160 at-bats then he has a good chance of maintaining his high ISO going forward. We do need to keep in mind with prospects that as they age they will in general grow into more power. Some will grow into a lot more power, and some just a little more. Mr. Alfaro has displayed decent power over his minor league career.

I like using wOBA instead of batting average in my player analysis because wOBA gives home runs the most value followed by triples, doubles, singles and finishing with walks getting the least value. Not all hits are created equal. Batting average assumes they are, wOBA gives weight to the better hits.

A wOBA of .350 in AA ball by Mr. Alfaro is average.

wRC+ is similar to the more mainstream OPS+ statistic. 100 is league average. Anything above that is above league average and below that is, naturally, below league average. This sabermetric statistic basically shows what hitters are better at producing runs and it is adjusted for park and league effects.

Given Mr. Alfaro’s wOBA it should not be a surprise to find out that he was 15% better than league average (115 wRC+) in AA ball.

I think it is helpful to take a quick look at these plate discipline sabermetric statistics. When looking at these two statistics some star players will grade out as below average or worse in these areas. Many power hitters will have this issue. Be careful to realize the type of player we are talking about and factor that in when reading.

Mr. Alfaro had a K% of 24.1% at AA ball in 2016. This receives a grade of poor from me. In 207 AA ball plate appearances in 2015 it was 29.5%, so, at least he made an improvement. He’s always been a high K% guy though. The real question is will he be able to keep it under control enough (or make adjustments to reduce it) at the major league level to be able to post a batting average worthy of a major league baseball player, and quite frankly, a fantasy baseball player. It should be noted here also that he had a 5.9% BB% in AA ball (poor).

What This All Means For 2017:

This will be a big season for Mr. Alfaro, although, in reality they all are big seasons for minor league players trying to establish themselves or keeping their prospect stock as high as possible. He will be tested once again in the major leagues I would expect, this time with more plate appearances to draw statistical analysis from. He needs to keep that K% under control to post a high enough batting average to succeed at the big league level in 2017. I am not in the business of predicting runs and RBI’s for hitters as they vary based upon where the manager chooses to hit them in the batting order and other various factors make them a bit unpredictable. Assuming Mr. Alfaro has a full healthy 2017 I would project 10 home runs to go along with a .235 batting average with 1 stolen base when you combine his stats from all levels of baseball.

If you enjoyed this article and are looking for a fresh perspective please CLICK HERE and get The Fantasy Baseball Draft Kit (sold during the off-season) or order a DFS baseball lineup! The Fantasy Baseball Addict 2017 Top 100 MLB Prospects are just one click away as well! Check out the list and as the 2016-17 off-season moves along every player on this list will have an analysis article done on him. So, be sure to bookmark that page as over time it will be a reference complete with links to easily get to these player specific analysis articles!

Coming Soon!

Jesse Winker 2016-17 Off-Season Analysis

Cincinnati Reds outfield prospect Jesse Winker, the 2012 June Amateur Draft 49th overall pick, had a successful season in the minor leagues in 2016. Here is my analysis of Mr. Winker that looks closely at his 2016 performance and touches on past years performances as well. I will finish with a look towards the future. Stats courtesy of FanGraphs.com.

Traditional 5 x 5 Roto Stats:

In AAA ball Mr. Winker had 448 plate appearances. He hit for a .303 average with 3 home runs, 39 runs and 45 RBI’s. He had 0 steals in 0 attempts. He also had 15 plate appearances in Rookie ball, but we won’t be analyzing those due to the small sample size.

Power Sabermetric Stats:

2016 saw an AAA ball isolated power (ISO) of .082. Anyone at or under .200 I consider a majority singles hitter. ISO tends to stabilize at about 160 at-bats. So, if a player is hitting for power through his first 160 at-bats then he has a good chance of maintaining his high ISO going forward. We do need to keep in mind with prospects that as they age they will in general grow into more power. Some will grow into a lot more power, and some just a little more. All these stats, from traditional ones (HR, R, RBI, Avg, SB) to various levels of advanced sabermetric statistics (that I look at in these prospect analysis articles), have value. Lots of value. However, like anything else, they don’t tell the whole story sometimes. Such is the case with Mr. Winker in 2016.

In 2015, while in AA ball with 526 plate appearances there, he had a .151 ISO. Then in 2016 in AAA ball it was almost cut in half. Just by looking at the statistic in a vacuum one would think maybe his 2015 power won’t translate to AAA ball and major league ball. However, once we leave that vacuum and look for a possible reason why his power was almost cut in half, we realize that he had a strained wrist in 2016. Sometimes injuries keep you from playing. Sometimes they aren’t bad enough to keep you off the field, but do keep you from producing the way you had produced while dealing with them.

I like using wOBA instead of batting average in my player analysis because wOBA gives home runs the most value followed by triples, doubles, singles and finishing with walks getting the least value. Not all hits are created equal. Batting average assumes they are, wOBA gives weight to the better hits.

Even while dealing with a nagging injury Mr. Winker posted a .356 wOBA in AAA ball (average).

wRC+ is similar to the more mainstream OPS+ statistic. 100 is league average. Anything above that is above league average and below that is, naturally, below league average. This sabermetric statistic basically shows what hitters are better at producing runs and it is adjusted for park and league effects.

Given Mr. Winker’s wOBA it should not be a big surprise to find out that he was 28% better than league average (128 wRC+) in AAA ball.

I think it is helpful to take a quick look at these plate discipline sabermetric statistics. When looking at these two statistics some star players will grade out as below average or worse in these areas. Many power hitters will have this issue. Be careful to realize the type of player we are talking about and factor that in when reading.

Mr. Winker had a K% of 13.2% at AAA ball in 2016. This receives a grade of above average from me. His BB% was also 13.2%, and this receives a grade of great. This guy has amazing plate discipline.

A Look Back At What I Wrote About Him Last Off-Season:

“This will be a big season for Mr. Winker. He must prove himself at a higher level of play over an extended period of time. I am not in the business of predicting runs and RBI’s for hitters as they vary based upon where the manager chooses to hit them in the batting order and other various factors make them a bit unpredictable. Assuming Mr. Winker has a full healthy 2016 I would project 15 home runs to go along with a .275 batting average with 6 stolen bases when you combine his stats from all levels of baseball.”– December 17, 2015.For the entire article CLICK HERE.

What This All Means For 2017:

Who knows how many home runs Mr. Winker would have hit if it wasn’t for his injury issue. Maybe he would have hit 15 like I had projected. Certainly he would have hit more than the 5 he did in 2016. This is why in my projections each season for prospects I always include the words “assuming he has a fully healthy 2017 I would project.” He outperformed my batting average projection of .275 with a .308 batting average. He also didn’t attempt a stolen base, so, the 6 stolen base projections was off.

This will be a big season for Mr. Winker, although, in reality they all are big seasons for minor league players trying to establish themselves or keeping their prospect stock as high as possible. He will be tested once again in the minor leagues and should get at least some playing time at the major league level. I am not in the business of predicting runs and RBI’s for hitters as they vary based upon where the manager chooses to hit them in the batting order and other various factors make them a bit unpredictable. Assuming Mr. Winker has a full healthy 2017 I would project 10 home runs to go along with a .295 batting average with 2 stolen bases when you combine his stats from all levels of baseball.

If you enjoyed this article and are looking for a fresh perspective please CLICK HERE and get The Fantasy Baseball Draft Kit (sold during the off-season) or order a DFS baseball lineup! The Fantasy Baseball Addict 2017 Top 100 MLB Prospects are just one click away as well! Check out the list and as the 2016-17 off-season moves along every player on this list will have an analysis article done on him. So, be sure to bookmark that page as over time it will be a reference complete with links to easily get to these player specific analysis articles!

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About Daniel Hilsgen

I'm a fantasy baseball addict and a paid writer at dynastysportsempire.com. I have a BS in Print Journalism from the University Of Wisconsin - River Falls. While in college I wrote briefly for the Associated Press. I have a deep love for sports, writing, baseball and fantasy baseball. You will find that I also love advanced statistics. I use these statistics and other information to form educated projections on baseball players future performance levels. Follow me on Twitter @FanBallAddict for easy access to my articles. In the off-season I have a fantasy baseball cheat sheet available for purchase. To purchase the fantasy baseball cheat sheet product or simply get on the contact list for it please email me at daniel.hilsgen@outlook.com

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