4/11/09

Tough loss today, but the Twins are still in first place (albeit in a 3-way tie) in the AL Central. Tomorrow's game looks promising because the Twins are hitting a collective .317/.349/.466 of Chicago's projected starter, Mark Buehrle. Some notable performers against Buehrle:

Based on this, I expect Redmond to start at catcher, Gomez and Span to be on the field as one of Cuddyer and Young, while the other is the DH, with Kubel sitting. I suspect that Crede will start at 3B, but I will not be surprised if Harris takes his spot.

It is a somewhat accepted myth that knuckleball pitchers are doing better in domes (part of the Twins' intrigue by R.A. Dickey.) What is driving this argument is the theory that the lack of wind in a dome would not affect a knuckleball, allowing it to have its fluttering motion that makes it difficult for the catchers to catch and hitters to hit.

So, would it have been better for the Twins to start Dickey in the dome and give someone like Blackburn, Dickey's Cellular Field start tonight?

The answer is no.

There is another physical factor that affects a knuckleball more than the wind: Air density. The colder the temperature, the denser the air, the less the spin. And throwing a knuckleball with no spin, is like throwing a brick to the batters. I am not going to in depth on the physics of a knuckleball, other than try to explain in basic terms what makes it flutter and then I will go into the temperature stuff:

Here is a knuckleball grip (Hoyt Wilhelm):

It is very similar to that of a fastball, but instead of running the middle and index fingers along the seams and trying to hold onto the ball only by the fingertips and thumb tip, the nails of the index and middle fingers dig into the seams, the first knuckles are close on the seams (thus the misnomer; a "nailball" would be more appropriate), which also has the effect of placing the ball closer to the palm, making it more of a change up grip.

the above image shows a knuckleball grip in the manner of a two-seam fastball (sinker), Dickey's grip is across the seams, in the manner of a four-seam fastball:

Both grips have the same effect, with Dickey's resulting to a slightly faster ball towards the plate (low 70s). Dickey, also throws the traditional, two-seam variation that results in a ball thrown about 5 mph slower. So tonight, when you see knuckleballs in the high 60s, low 70s, he is using the 4-seam variation, and when you see knuckleballs in the mid to low 60s, he is using the 2-seam variation.

Why the motion: ideally, a knuckleball from the pitcher to the plate will do only one half spin, moving the seams that held them into the side (90 degrees). The drag (air resistance) of the seams (which increases relatively by the lower velocity of the ball towards the plate than traditional pitches) will cause the ball to have an increased sideways movement, thus "flutter". The argument against the wind is that a lateral (side to side) wind, would exaggerate the natural lateral movement of the knuckleball, making it more "wild".

That's what throwing a knuckleball is all about. How about the temperature effects? Higher temperature decreases the density of air molecules and low temperature increases their density. When it is cold and the air molecules are denser, this has two effects: a. it slows the velocity of the ball which, in turn, b. decreases the spin of the ball, thus making a knuckleball, flutter better. Here is an extreme example to make it clearer: Cold increases water molecule density. Is it easier to push your finger through liquid water, or through ice? The same principle applies to the air.

If you are not yet convinced:

Here is a New York Times article, where Mike Marshall, the former Cy Young winner, explains why a knuckleball is aided by the cold

As a further support, Dickey's ERA last season in the open was more than 2 points lower than in a dome (4.48 vs. 6.52), opponents had a .751 OPS in the open vs .952 in the dome, his ERA was 3.66 in night games vs. 8.50 in day games, and opponents had a .715 OPS in day games vs. .980 in night games

4/9/09

In the previous post, I listed all the current Twins' minor league position players with their former and current affiliations. Here is a list of all the 98 pitchers in the system, including whether they are left handed (*), their age in the middle of the 2009 season, the team they played for 2008 (if they played in other organizations, the level is included instead.), and the team they are playing for in 2009. The ones with no 2009 team assigned are either in extended spring training or in the Dominican Republic. I will try to keep it up to date and please let me know whether I have listed anyone wrongly or omitted anyone.

In order to keep up with the different developments in the Twins' minor league system, I created a database of all the minor league players in the organization. Here is a list of all the 102 position players in the system, including whether they are batting left handed (*) or are switch hitters (#), their age in the middle of the 2009 season, the team they played for 2008 (if they played in other organizations, the level is included instead.), and the team they are playing for in 2009. The ones with no 2009 team assigned are either in extended spring training or in the Dominican Republic. I will try to keep it up to date and please let me know whether I have listed anyone wrongly or omitted anyone. Pitchers to follow.

The first series of the year is over. The Twins tied 2-2 with the Seattle Mariners and are in second place in the AL Central, half a game behind the Kansas City Royals, half a game a head of the Chicago White Sox, a game ahead of the Detroit Tigers and a game and a half ahead of the win-less Cleveland Indians.

This series concluded with a classic pitcher's duo in which Jarrod Washburn, outlasted Glen Perkins to lead his Mariners to a 2-0 matinee victory. A few observations from this series, in a random order:

The Mariners are not as bad as they look on paper. The addition of Guterriez and Chavez in the outfield will help them win several games (one could argue that today's was one of them) with the glove. With the Angel's rotation a huge question mark and the Rangers and A's unpredictable, it could be possible that the Mariners might contend this season, if they get the right bounces like they did in this series. A split with the Mariners at home might sound discouraging, but lets not forget that the Twins last season spit a home series with the Rays and we all know what happened to the Rays...

There were a lot of nerves at the starting rotation, but Perkins and Liriano performed very well pitching 8 and 7 innings of 0.88 and 0.57 WHIP, respectively. As a matter of fact, that was Perkins' best start with the Twins.

Having Crede at third base will be a huge factor for the Twins, even if his bat is slow to wake up. Just in this series Crede made at least 5 plays that Buscher could not make in his dreams.

The biggest surprise as far as the bats go, was Denard Span who followed an awful spring with a .308/.438/.538 performance, one home run, a team leading 4 RBI and 1 SB. Other than Span, Morneau, Kubel and Harris (who owns Washburn) had good series with the bat.

Nathan was perfect in his single save opportunity and Guerrier, who gave only one hit in 2.1 innings (0.43 WHIP), showed promise that last season might have just been a fluke

First Series MVP:

Denard Span

First Series Best Pitcher:

Glen Perkins

Next series: 3 games against the White Sox in Chicago. Probable Starters:

4/8/09

There were a lot written about last night's game. It was indeed a game for the ages. I am sure that there is not a single Twins' blog or newspaper site that does not have a myriad of descriptions for the game, so I will not add to them. What I will add is the following, because a picture is worth more than 1000 words:

This is the win probability graph from fangraphs.com that shows the swing in the game in the 9th inning. Fangraphs has a live scoreboard that gives live graphs like the one above with win probability updated with each at bat. If you are not familiar with the site, it is a very enriching way to follow the game!

The third game of the series is tonight and Kevin Slowey is facing Twins' alum Carlos Silva.

Last winter, after the Fargo gaffe, Ron Gardenhire gave an interview to scout.com. Among other things he was asked about who he will start in the outfield. Here is his response:

Gardenhire: Well, they have to earn it. In the course of spring training next year, they will decide who is going to be out there playing. Either they get it done or they don’t. I don’t have to decide stuff like that, unless they all hit .500 in spring training and that makes it a little more difficult. But they have to decide who is going to go out there and play.

4/5/09

On Saturday, La Velle Neal III, penned 5 questions about the Twins entering this season. Here, not in a direct response, I am listing 10 reasons why the Twins' fans should be optimistic about 2009:

Carlos Gomez spent the off-season working specifically on his plate discipline both in the Dominican Winter League and in Spring Training and the results show that all that work paid dividends. In addition, he worked out on his physique, translated to a bigger lower body. That also paid dividends, since he was the co-leader in Spring Training with 3 home runs and led the team with 5 stolen bases

Delmon Young is beginning to show some power. Like Gomez, he also had 3 home runs to co-lead the team in Spring Training.

The quest for quality set up may be over. Jesse Crain, another year removed from shoulder surgery and with a newly found sharpness in his curveball had a fantastic spring both with the Twins and team Canada in the WBC. Louis Ayala was not scored upon with the Twins this spring training and Craig Breslow led all relievers with 10.77 K/9

Joe Mauer is getting better. Friday, he took swings off a tee and caught R.A. Dickey on the side.

R.A. Dickey was probably the surprise of the spring. He showed both great control (4.5 K/BB) and excellent strike out ability (9.5 K/9), a rare feat for a knuckleball pitcher, suggesting that his performance as a reliever last season was not a fluke and that he can be an integral part of this team in 2009

Justin Morneau and Jason Kubel had great springs. They led the Twins in power numbers last season and they are set to be even better this season. Morneau's slight back issues are a thing of the past, since he played with no pain

Mike Cuddyer's performance is suggesting that he is set to put 2008 in the rear view mirror and have a very good season in 2009 (a contract season for him, which will determine whether the Twins will pick his option for 2010.)

Joe Crede had 53 AB and there was no pain in his back

The rotation, including its newest temporary appointee, R.A. Dickey, and excluding the injured Scott Baker, was nothing short of excellent, led by Kevin Slowey who continued to build on his 2008 by posting the following otherworldly numbers: 11 K/BB, 7.83 K/9, 0.87 WHIP. Kevin will be a Cy Young candidate this year

Last but not least, the Twins finished the spring with a 19-13 record and a .594 winning performance, tying in second with the 2003 team, behind the .625 2006 team, in the Gardenhire era. As I showed earlier the spring training record for these Twins, does translate to season success, and based on Spring 2009, 2009 will be a very successful season for the Twins.

The season starts tomorrow. Twins fans should enjoy the run to the fourth world championship of the franchise and the third in the Metrodome, so appropriate in its last year of hosting the team.

The rosters for the Rochester Red Wings, New Britain Rock Cats and Beloit Snappers are up at their respective official sites and starting to shape up. A few surprises, mainly the Delaney/Slama duo in New Britain and Tolleson in New Britain. Also, I was hoping that Ben Revere will be in New Britain... There are a few too many older players (esp. pitchers + Watkins) for my taste, who are blocking talent like Delaney, Tolleson and Valencia from AAA. And this has a domino effect, like Slama is blocked from being the closer in New Britain and Deibinson Romero, with one more year in the 40-roster before he has to be added to the 25-man roster or being lost, is stuck in Ft. Myers. In addition, Joe Gaetti and Toby G. are in New Britain at ages (27 and 26, respectively) that they should be able to play in AAA or be released. Another surprise: Eli Tindor, an outfielder with the Ft. Myers Miracle in 2008 is repositioned as a catcher and will be playing with the Beloit Snappers in 2009. Also, there are a three players that are not included in the rosters: Steven Tolleson, Oswaldo Sosa and Daniel Berg. I do not expect them to get a demotion... There are a still few days left at the minor league spring training camp and by then these rosters might change a bit.

The rosters are listed below. Rosters for the Ft. Myers Miracle and the Elizabethton Twins are not yet final. The short season rookie GCL-Twins' players will be in extended spring training until GCL games commence. I will update the other teams' rosters as soon as they finalize. Reading between the lines, based on who is on Beloit (and about two thirds of the 2009 Beloit roster were in Elizabethton last season) and in New Britain, expect Aaron Hicks and Ben Revere to man the outfield in Ft. Myers. And this is worth a trip to Florida.

About Me

This blog contains eclectic musings about baseball, mainly centering on the Minnesota Twins and are mainly numbers-driven. I anticipate a few Vikings tidbits here and there, a bunch of historical statistical analysis, some emphasis on minor leagues and prediction of prospect development and production in the majors... just a place to place some thoughts.
I am a Twin Cities expat and SABR member, living on the right coast and have good access to both Twins' AAA and AA teams, albeit not necessarily their home fields.
Feel free to commend in the blog or email me at thetenthinningstretch at gmail.com