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Re: RCP Electoral Map Thread

Originally Posted by kojo

Right and Nate doesn't weigh all Polls the same, so how he decides which individual poll is debatable. He has an article called "house effects" where he explains and ranks which polls are more biased and then says that he reduces/increases their effect in his calculations so yes, PPP won't have the same influence as say Susquehanna since it is blatantly left leaning. If you guys think mitt is going to eek this one out you may want to put some money up on intrade, the returns on there look crazy. Last I checked Obama was a 64% favorite. Other gambling sites, especially the euro ones have him in the high 70s...

Silver slightly varying the polls weights doesn't address the issue of (or odds of) systematic failure or bias. Which is exactly the point.

As for Intrade, no thanks. It is liking betting on a 2 to 1 moneyline favorite in the NFL, which can be done any week. And as I said, I don't think "mitt" is going to "eek" it out, I actually think he loses Ohio and hence the election, but we aren't really talking about what will happen, we are talking about people pretending that pseudoscience is science. When you appeal to the results of the pseudoscience as evidence of its scientific nature you are begging the question.

Re: RCP Electoral Map Thread

Nate Silver BTW is a former Daily Kos blogger. The word on the street is that the reason he nailed 2008 is that because of this stature with the Democrat party he had access to the Obama campaign's internal polling. It did not, by the way, take a genius to figure out that Obama was going to beat John McCain.

Tomorrow is going to be all about turnout. My sources on Twitter are still saying that early voting on the Democrat side is still well short of 2008, and in Ohio Republicans may have completely wiped out not only the early voting advantage, but the actual total number of votes the President won the state by. That's not polling, that's raw numbers from the state.

Ok, early voting turnout is not what it was for the Dems in 2008. They are still beating the GOP in turnout, even with their numbers down, in many key states.

This was and still is my main criticism with the Romney campaign. He had three chances to hit Obama hard and early and whiffed on all three. Now he's reaping what he has sowed -- a close race when it had the very real potential to be a blow out.

He still may win. No doubt about that. But it did not need to be this close.

WARNING: This post may contain material offensive to those who lack wit, humor, common sense and/or supporting factual or anecdotal evidence. All statements and assertions contained herein may be subject to literary devices not limited to: irony, metaphor, allusion and dripping sarcasm.

Re: RCP Electoral Map Thread

Ok, early voting turnout is not what it was for the Dems in 2008. They are still beating the GOP in turnout, even with their numbers down, in many key states.

This was and still is my main criticism with the Romney campaign. He had three chances to hit Obama hard and early and whiffed on all three. Now he's reaping what he has sowed -- a close race when it had the very real potential to be a blow out.

He still may win. No doubt about that. But it did not need to be this close.

If the GOP has increased it's early voting numbers from 08, did they really whiff? Or did they just bunt?

We are all born ignorant, but one must work hard to remain stupid. - Benjamin Franklin

If the GOP has increased it's early voting numbers from 08, did they really whiff? Or did they just bunt?

The GOP bunted. Yes, that's more accurate.

But in terms of Mitt seizing on the Obama gaffes, no, I stand by whiff.

WARNING: This post may contain material offensive to those who lack wit, humor, common sense and/or supporting factual or anecdotal evidence. All statements and assertions contained herein may be subject to literary devices not limited to: irony, metaphor, allusion and dripping sarcasm.

Re: RCP Electoral Map Thread

Ok, early voting turnout is not what it was for the Dems in 2008. They are still beating the GOP in turnout, even with their numbers down, in many key states.

This was and still is my main criticism with the Romney campaign. He had three chances to hit Obama hard and early and whiffed on all three. Now he's reaping what he has sowed -- a close race when it had the very real potential to be a blow out.

He still may win. No doubt about that. But it did not need to be this close.

Just FYI the Ohio numbers are not anecdotal. They come from the SoS's official numbers. They don't show who voted for who, but it does show party breakdown.

Re: RCP Electoral Map Thread

Originally Posted by NCRAVEN

I'm gonna go with bunt on that too. Hard to take advantage of the missteps gaffes and failed policies etc. when no media will cover that. Ya know?

And this is the problem. While Romney should have gone after Obama more on Benghazi and did during the debate, the media has completely covered his ass on it. The media has done everything they could to tear Romney down and not report on a single gaffe Obama or Biden have made.

I'm gonna go with bunt on that too. Hard to take advantage of the missteps gaffes and failed policies etc. when no media will cover that. Ya know?

Agreed. But he could have a done the Reagan-esqe media blitz, bypassing the MSM. Mitt and his surrogates seem to be taking the McCain approach. You and I both agreed a while back he needed to not be so reliant on the MSM.

WARNING: This post may contain material offensive to those who lack wit, humor, common sense and/or supporting factual or anecdotal evidence. All statements and assertions contained herein may be subject to literary devices not limited to: irony, metaphor, allusion and dripping sarcasm.