But who's the tea party's candidate?

You can’t a win horse race without a horse. That looks like a problem for tea party Republicans.

The tea party is the most dynamic movement the Republican Party has seen since Ronald Reagan. This movement has always taken pride in the fact that it has no acknowledged national leader or spokesperson.

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Former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin may be the closest thing the tea party has to a potential presidential candidate, but the odds are growing that she won’t run. Two thirds of registered voters said they did not consider Palin qualified to be president, according to a Washington Post-ABC News poll taken just before the 2010 midterm. Even Republicans were split. Palin may want to take her time making up her mind. The minute she announces she’s not running, a lot of the attention and money will dry up.

If Palin doesn’t run, another tea party favorite, Rep. Michele Bachmann (R-Minn.), has been signaling an interest. She has a following on the right because of her colorful, sometimes inflammatory statements: “I want people in Minnesota armed and dangerous on this issue of the energy tax,” Bachmann said, “because we need to fight back.” A fringe candidate, perhaps, but not likely to be a serious contender.

The first Republican debate is less than eight weeks away — May 2 at the Reagan Library in California (co-sponsored by NBC and POLITICO). So far, no Republican candidate has declared.

Five contenders appear to be gearing up to run: former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty, Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour and former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum.

Four others, in addition to Palin and Bachmann, are reported to be considering a run: Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels, former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, Texas Rep. Ron Paul and former Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman, now Obama’s ambassador to China.

Republicans tend to divide by class — just like Democrats. Democratic primaries usually end up with a progressive, who appeals to upper-middle-class liberals, facing off against a populist with working-class support. Barack Obama won the progressive vote in the 2008 Democratic primaries, while Hillary Clinton took the populists.

The class split among Republicans is between country-club conservatives and “values voters,” who have ties to the religious right. Reagan drew strong support from both wings of the party. So did George W. Bush. Both got elected to two terms.

Where does the tea party fit in? Demographically, tea party supporters look like values voters — that is, right-wing populists. Palin would probably have trouble getting into a country club in Greenwich, Conn.

In fact, there’s a lot of overlap between the tea party and the religious right. A survey last year by the Public Religion Research Institute found that nearly half (47 percent) of tea party supporters also consider themselves part of the Christian conservative movement. But the tea party gives higher priority to fiscal issues than to social issues.

The tea party is really a populist expression of country-club conservatism. They share the same fixation on spending, taxes and deficits. But the tea party has a moralistic approach to politics that refuses to play by the rules of the political establishment. No deal-making, no compromises.