Russia need 2 bombs to get their 3 spots, I'd say it's more likely than not.

Murakami has the potential to have lots of jump issues without truly bombing and getting a quite low score. Asada could possibly bomb her very ambitious program, if she has 3axel problems it could all be downhill from there. Wagner has also been hit or miss lately. So it is possible still.

Wagner just needs to put in a somewhat credible performance and the U.S has 3 spots. She can be beaten by every other skater in the final flight and it will still be enough. To drop below the Russians she is going to have to deliver a real stinker. Basically if the U.S doesnt regain 3 spots Wagner totally blew it, and probably landed only 1 or 2 jumps.