News from the Votemaster

In a maneuver similar to but different from Sarah Palin's, Sen. Mel Martinez (R-FL) has
resigned
from the U.S. Senate a year before his term is up. Palin did it to make big-time money and
possibly to prepare herself for a presidential run in 2012. Martinez can't command $50,000
speaking fees as Palin can and he is not running for anything anymore. Why he really resigned
hasn't become clear yet.

His abrupt departure shakes up the Florida Senate race unexpectedly. It is very unlikely that
Gov. Charlie Crist (R-FL) had anything to do with it. When you are the odds-on favorite, you
don't rock the boat. Now Crist has to appoint a successor to Martinez. He could appoint himself,
but that could easily backfire with the voters, who like him but probably would consider this a
sneaky way to get an edge on his primary and general election competitors. Besides, then he would
have to vote on bills like health care insurance reform, climate change, and immigration, all of
which are hot potatoes in Florida.

More likely than not, he will appoint a placeholder, similar to Sen. Ted Kaufman (D-DE), an elderly
person who will toe the party line, avoid making waves, and cheerfully retire in Jan. 2011.
Nevertheless, Crist has to be careful. If he picks a moderate, like himself, this will give fuel
to his primary opponent, Marco Rubio, who will paint him as insufficiently conservative. On the
other hand, if he picks a fire-breathing conservative, while this will shut up Rubio, it could
hurt him in the general election. Best bet is to pick an relative unknown
who would be indebted to him.
One name that has
surfaced
is Jim Smith, Chairman of the Board of Trustees of Florida State University and former
Florida Secretary of State and also Florida Attorney General.

Rep. Carolyn Maloney has given in to the immense pressure on her
not run for the Senate.
In a statement Maloney said: "The right decision for me and the people I represent is to stay
in the House of Representatives" (English translation: That #@$%$#@!! Schumer twisted the arms
of all my potential financial backers and told them not to donate to me or else).
President Obama didn't want her to run, but Sen. Chuck Schumer (D-NY) is the real state
powerhouse and no doubt he pulled out all stops to protect his protege Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY).
Maloney's withdrawal--and the avoidance of a bloody primary--changes the calculus for New York
completely. If, as many observers expect, the top of the ticket ends up as Andrew Cuomo and
Gillibrand, it is unlikely that serious Republicans will want to tackle either one of them.
This means former mayor Rudy Giuliani (R) will be content to rake in big money advising
companies how to avoid 9/11 and former governor George Pataki will stay former. A Maloney-Gillibrand
fight might have induced one of them to run for the Senate. Gillibrand is a prodigious
fundraiser and now that she can spend every one of the many dollars she collects on the
general election, the prospect of outraising her will probably discourage most serious
challengers.

The Senate Ethics Committee has
cleared
Sen. Chris Dodd (D-CT) and Sen. Kent Conrad (D-ND)
of charges that used their positions to profit from cheap mortgages with Countrywide
Financial Corp. This is good news to Dodd, who has already drawn a serious Republican
challenger in next year's Senate race: former representative Rob Simmons. It will now be
harder for Simmons to say Dodd is corrupt and make it stick. However, Dodd has another
problem that the Ethics Committee can't make go away: prostate cancer. Depending how his
treatment goes, he might decide to retire after this term, opening the way for a much
cleaner Democrat to run in his place. An open-seat race between Simmons and one of
Connecticut's representatives would favor the Democrat, just because Connecticut is so blue.

NRSC chairman Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX) has
promised
a well-funded challenger for majority leader Sen. Harry Reid (D-NV).
It is empty boasts like this that make people so cynical about politics.
The Nevada governor, Jim Gibbons, had a illegal alien as a housekeeper, has been accused
of sexual assault, and has been involved in a possibly fraudulent land deal, all of which
has driven his popularity to a number lower than even George Bush managed. The lieutenant
governor, Brian Krolicki, is actually under indictment for four felony counts of misusing
his office for private gain.
The state's other senator, John Ensign (R-NV), is embroiled in a sex scandal and the state's
lone Republican representative, Dean Heller, doesn't want to run for the Senate.
Despite Reid's lack of popularity in the state, Cornyn can't find any challenger at all,
let alone a well-financed one. Yet he is acting like knocking off Reid is a done deal.
Both sides do this, of course, but it is just hot air, something Nevada has in great supply.

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