Saturday, June 30, 2012

Many of the European-Asian Internet connections cross
the Middle East both land and sea cables. The more these two continents are
financially connected with each other the more valuable are the cable
connections. There are still American-Asian and European-American connections, but
their capability will take a huge hit if for instance TAE-network gets
disconnected. And there are satellites, but how much there will be capacity
left if a full spectrum war breaks out in the Middle East.

I bring some aspects for you:

Egypt

Sea
cables through Egypt

(C)
http://www.cablemap.

If this map is even close accurate, the European-Asian
sea cable connections rely on Egypt. Egypt finally got their president, but the
situation is not stabilized yet. During the Arab-spring's censorship, Egyptian
government stated that they would leave international interconnections
untouched. The uprising did not disturb the connections or did it? But what if
the election result does not calm the situation but takes a step towards a
civil war?

Iran

Trans Asia-Europe Optical Fiber Cable crosses
some stormy areas like Georgia (remember the conflict in 2008) or northern
Iran. What happens to the connections if Iranian situation escalates? Will
TAE-network be a hostage to get ransom in exchange for support? In such
situation, does the connection benefit more than disconnection? Which side of
the front would a disconnection serve more? Both sides have to consider pros and cons.

TAE-network
in Middle East

(C)
http://taeint.net/en/network/middle

Syria

If Syrian civil war breaks out to a full-scale conflict,
then the TAE could get hit in several places even it does not cross Syrian
borders. One part of TAE-network goes through Kurdistan in South East Turkey and Northern Iraq.
It is obvious that the Kurds will take the opportunity towards sovereignty
during an escalated conflict. As well, Turkey could use the moment for
defeating Kurds rebellions inside Turkey, Syria and Northern Iraq. Sabotage,
collateral damage and strategically disconnection are more likely options what come
to the consequences of conflict escalation.