Hard part comes next for Cuomo

Casey Seiler

Published 5:00 am, Monday, April 4, 2011

Three months after taking office, is Gov. Andrew Cuomo snapping awake in the middle of the night haunted by the prospect that this is as good as it gets?

To be sure, his status is pretty good -- maybe not Cuomo in excelsis, but a long distance from Cuomo agonistes.

Buoyed by lofty poll numbers, the governor and his team ably navigated the shoals of budget season, closing things down amid predictions of a snowstorm. When last year's egregiously late budget was finally settled, the thermometer was in the 90s.

Setting aside for a moment the content of what even its framers agree is a painful budget, its timely passage vastly improves the chances that I'll see more of my son's Little League games. (But that's what I thought two years ago, before the Senate coup crisis broke out.)

It was more than an electoral mandate and high approval ratings that landed the budget. For the Legislature, the chance to bask in the reflected glow of Cuomo's velocity and popularity was the carrot; the stick was his willingness, in the event of a late budget, to pack the first emergency extender with his entire budget proposal -- a historic development in executive power that will probably stand as David Paterson's most durable legacy, like a gubernatorial superpower.

There are all sorts of superpowers, and some of them are of limited utility. Aquaman's ability to communicate with fish and other undersea creatures, for example, isn't going to do him much good in the middle of Nebraska.

While Cuomo's extender power will stay in its holster until 2012, the state budget is state government's primary responsibility. New York is perpetually either reeling from the current budget or preparing for the next. (It's the same way with elections.)

The most immediate effect of the $132.5 billion spending plan will come in the realm of education, as school districts struggle to trim about $1.2 billion statewide. Already, property owners are bracing for potentially chunky tax increases that localities will turn to in order to close the resulting gaps.

If that happens across the state, it could cut two ways for Cuomo. Voters would blame the districts, who'd blame the Legislature and the governor. He would take more heat, though, since the cuts to education would have been $272 million deeper under Cuomo's initial budget proposal. Then again, fat property tax hikes could tend to shore up the governor's argument for a 2 percent property tax cap, a mechanism that during the past two months has fallen slightly below the radar -- which is where an increasing number of jittery lawmakers hope it stays.

But if legislators are nervous over the property cap, many will be rendered basket cases by the stick Cuomo wields on ethics reform: the creation of a Moreland Commission to investigate systemic corruption in the Legislature. That body would have the power to subpoena documents and witnesses as it probes into matters such as what Senator/Assemblyman-Lawyer/Consultant X is paid to do Service Y for Private Firm Z.

It would go on for months or even longer, and would likely spill scandals and even indictments like a nasty pinata. All of which would make Cuomo look even more stalwart and the Legislature more tarnished.

Just before his election, Cuomo said the success or failure of his agenda would be clear by the end of June. By the calendar, we're halfway there.

Whether or not Cuomo is more than halfway home politically will be revealed in the weeks ahead. Hard as the budget fight was, I'll bet he'll look back on it as the easy part.