There's also sampling error issues ... that is, Obama might actually be up 8 points on Hillary in the population demograph breakdown Strat Vision uses ... but that might be a bad approx. of the population that will show up on caucus night.

Or maybe, Kefa, it has to do with the huge population of Independent voters in New Hampshire, a demograph needed to win any election there (including the general), and a demograph in which Obama absolutely destroys pretty much any other politician in the country, save maybe John McCain.

In a recent national survey, Obama had something like 80% approval rating among Dems, similarly high among Indies (and was best-rated of any politician polled in that demograph), and a stunning 54% approval rating among Republicans.