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Also, it's my personal theory that Maria being the first to notice the smell of Kinzo's burning body in EP1 is just a huge elaborate "The First One Who Smelt It Dealt It." Kinzo's already dead, so she didn't murder him. She just stuffed his body into an incinerator :3

Well, the randomness isn't something we thought up, it's just something we've observed over the 6 twilights. Someone has a plan to fake the twilights, but they haven't properly chosen the victims before the game starts. The end up choosing the victims on the first night around around 10pm - 12am.

As Judoh said before, it seems they choose the people loitering around in the halls. They may be able to choose small groups of people too (like Rosa + Maria), and in the event everyone in the mansion is totally busy to 3am like in EP5, they resort to the guest house.

There is some justification for the 3 groups since it aligns with the 3 conspiracies we have seen so far. The servants (as i call them the Beatrice faction), the Blackmail-Krauss faction (lead by Eva) and the Anti-Inheritance (or Pretend-Kinzo-is-Alive faction, led by Natsuhi and Krauss, maybe.)

Of course some people seem to be part of two factions (like Rosa) or have their own secret factions, etc, etc...

I don't like the random factor of the factions. Ryukishi07 would be saying, 'You want motive? MOTIVE THIS D**K!!! Yeaaaaaa boy!' I also see no need for three groups when two would do just fine. But hey, that is just my opinion.

Why are there no gunshot noises? Take the first twilight in ep 3, for instance. Someone apparently went around the mansion shooting all the servants (or tricking them, or whatever). Wouldn't the cracking of the gun be quite... noticable to anyone awake? In addition, wouldn't it wake anyone still asleep?

Same for the first FT (assuming that was done with a gun) and the entire 4th episode (wouldn't he at least hear distant shots?).

Why are there no gunshot noises? Take the first twilight in ep 3, for instance. Someone apparently went around the mansion shooting all the servants (or tricking them, or whatever). Wouldn't the cracking of the gun be quite... noticable to anyone awake? In addition, wouldn't it wake anyone still asleep?

Same for the first FT (assuming that was done with a gun) and the entire 4th episode (wouldn't he at least hear distant shots?).

We know they hear gun shots when Natsuhi is killed and I assume Battler and Eva heard it when Nanjo was killed.

The noise really has been a problem though and that's one reason why Renall suggested someone brought a pistol to the island. The winchesters are just too loud. You might be able to get away with that in some cases, but episode 4 is problematic.

There are also ways to make homemade silencers, but it's very illegal even here in America.

EDIT: Then again sawing off a winchester like that is illegal here too. It might not be too out there.

The magic circles are used for a completely different reason, and we know there are knock off circle artists from episode 5.

Side note, since Judoh brought it up: The reason the circles were crappy in EP5 is because the usual artist couldn't get away from observation, so somebody else had to take care of it. That means we can eliminate all of the people who could have drawn the crappy circles as the original artist.

So the cousins and Rosa are all out because of the guesthouse circle. I've forgotten, were there any crappy circles in the mansion?

__________________

"Something has fallen on us that falls very seldom on men; perhaps the worst thing that can fall on them. We have found the truth; and the truth makes no sense."

Well, there's also the prospect that a gun is not used in the killings where one isn't heard. I mean, there's always that possibility. Battler might theorize there's a gun involved, but he doesn't have to be right.

Side note, since Judoh brought it up: The reason the circles were crappy in EP5 is because the usual artist couldn't get away from observation, so somebody else had to take care of it. That means we can eliminate all of the people who could have drawn the crappy circles as the original artist.

So the cousins and Rosa are all out because of the guesthouse circle. I've forgotten, were there any crappy circles in the mansion?

There is also such thing as a rush job. I question how important it truly is. We have a new gamemaster for that game so one could say that the crappy circles are mirroring Lambda Delta's crappy imitation of Beatrice. If the magic circles are a hint, then I would say someone killed 'Beatrice' and took over the twilights or perhaps the motive is just different from the other games. This could also be part of Lambda Delta's trap as gamemaster to make us think this game is different from the others.

In a sense Battler "killed her" in the game before that. I don't want to go into all the stuff Bern said about that to Battler again. We know that the Beatrice Piece is not in play anymore in chiru though.

But even if it's illegal, criminal organizations are known to possess guns even automatic.

In umineko we know that all Kasumi's men possess guns. and Juuza must possess some kind of heavy weaponry as well, probably a sniper rifle. It's certainly not something that you can get easily in japan. He must have several contacts in the black market.

So maybe Kyrie has plans from outside the family, like others suggested. Like a directive from the Sumaderas? Hmm.... if this is the case then we needed to see more clues from EP1-4...

My biggest problem with the theory that Kyrie is working for the Sumadera family lies in their history.

Kyrie eloped with Rudolf and disgraced the family name. As Ange narrated they would have killed her for shaming them, but something happened (implied to be a money deal) that let her off the hook. She clearly loves Rudolf (to a scary point) and her children, plus she gets along with the rest of the family very well. I just don't see her doing something like working for a family that hates her - she only keeps contact with her father, who is also ostracized from the family.

In a sense Battler "killed her" in the game before that. I don't want to go into all the stuff Bern said about that to Battler again. We know that the Beatrice Piece is not in play anymore in chiru though.

I doubt this. I know Battler 'killed her' outside of the game board but that does not mean the human pretending to be Beatrice will stop. We do not have a big enough sample to guarantee that Beatrice's piece will not be used. Especially since the MoeBeatrice has gotten a grasp of what Meta-Beatrice was like. The lack of the similar use of Beatrice as an illusion could be contributed to other things, such as the games ending early or different gamemasters.
By the way, when I said killed 'Beatrice' I was referring to the human pretending to be Beatrice and not meta-Beatrice.

Ryuukishi: All that happened was that the piece known as Beatrice vanished from the game board. That doesn't change the fact that Battler is still trapped on the game board.

Ryuukishi: One thing I can say here is that the personality in that world which had its own tachi-e and was called Beatrice was nothing more than the queen. The game doesn't end when the queen is taken, right? Even with the queen gone, the king that Beato calls her heart still remains on the scene. Unless that king is discovered and cornered, Beatrice's riddles will not be solved.

and I know what you were referring to. What I was saying was that the piece is not active because the meta version of her isn't. She doesn't have to be dead on the game board to not be active is what I'm saying.

My biggest problem with the theory that Kyrie is working for the Sumadera family lies in their history.

Kyrie eloped with Rudolf and disgraced the family name. As Ange narrated they would have killed her for shaming them, but something happened (implied to be a money deal) that let her off the hook.

Kinzo bought his second son a lover just like he gave his first son a wife that he won as a literal trophy in a financial battle. That's nothing unusual at all anywhere a woman may be seen as a commodity, and especially for someone reported to be so misogynistic...

...and yet something feels incomplete.

There aren't any scenes telling us on what terms Rudolf was with Kinzo except the general awe and fear they all feel towards him, but it feels to me that Rudolf was getting away with a lot more stuff than Krauss ever even tried.

But Kyrie had to have been exiled from Sumadera when she got pregnant out of marriage. For twelve years after that she was still not Rudolf's wife. Which essentially means that Rudolf somehow got Kinzo to pay for his woman, a woman of good breeding and certainly fitting to be the wife of an Ushiromiya on any account, and then married a nobody anyway, and I doubt he would be able to get away with that. Even parents who spoil their children like there's no tomorrow would get seriously annoyed with their gifts being spurned.

There must be something more to that particular bit in the story.

__________________

"The only principle that does not inhibit progress is: anything goes."
— Paul K. Feyerabend, "Against Method: Outline of an Anarchistic Theory of Knowledge"

Well, there's also the prospect that a gun is not used in the killings where one isn't heard. I mean, there's always that possibility. Battler might theorize there's a gun involved, but he doesn't have to be right.

Indeed, but then we have no idea what was used. Did someone run around for the whole of ep 4 whacking people with a spade? And while the servants in ep3 could've been speared to death (if you somehow found a spear on the island?) it's pretty clear that Gohda and Kumasawa were killed by guns in ep4.

You could make a silencer, I guess... but silencers wouldn't fully drown out the sound of such a loud rifle. A silenced pistol could do the job, but then where is it? None of the guests seemed to have a chance to smuggle anything in, so it'd probably have to be in Kinzo's collection.

You could make a silencer, I guess... but silencers wouldn't fully drown out the sound of such a loud rifle. A silenced pistol could do the job, but then where is it? None of the guests seemed to have a chance to smuggle anything in, so it'd probably have to be in Kinzo's collection.

It's possible to make a crude DIY silencer that will muffle the sound enough with a sufficient guarantee that the rain will drown it out in all cases.

The problem with a silencer like that on the Winchester in particular is that it's a) hard to keep on the sawed-off gun, b) won't last more than a few shots before it starts cracking apart, to eventually blow up into your face, and, well, c) None of the Ushiromiyas or their servants show any technological aptitude to make one. Problem "a" doesn't exist in case of a .45 derringer, but the other problems remain.

Oh, and if you tried to shoot a .410 cartridge with one it would definitely blow up into your face the moment pellets would get caught on the edges.

Mind you, that does not actually preclude Ryukishi from thinking that the sound of the shots cannot be heard through walls and because of the rain, we just don't know. Unfortunately nobody ever hears a legitimate shot from a sufficient distance for us to tell if that is the case.

__________________

"The only principle that does not inhibit progress is: anything goes."
— Paul K. Feyerabend, "Against Method: Outline of an Anarchistic Theory of Knowledge"

Well, they hear the Natsuhi shot in ep1... and that's about all I can think of in terms of gunshot noises :/.

She was just in the next room though.

Come to think of it, lack of noise in general is a problem for a lot of the killings. Kumasawa's scream when she finds Kanon in the boiler room is heard quite some way away, but wouldn't you expect, say, Eva to scream when someone advances on her with a stake?