ROILO GOLEZ, Philippine National Security Adviser (2001-2004). The world and the Philippines as Roilo Golez sees it. With focus on national security, geopolitics, geo-security, economics, science and government.

Thursday, May 4, 2017

Is Donald Trump giving up on the South China Sea? The National Interest

Last April 18, I blogged an article stating: "I agree that it is worrisome to see the US appearing to make a deal with China to rein in or discipline North Korea expressed in possible trade concessions in favor of China. Worrisome because the next question is what other items were on the table in making the deal? Taiwan? Senkakus? South China Sea? It could lead to dangerous speculation by the allies of the US. It could also lead to China's renewed aggressiveness in other fronts, now that they may have a US IOU in their pockets."

Looks like my sixth sense is accurate based on this The National Interest article entitled: "Is Donald Trump Giving Up on the South China Sea?

I quote from this article:

"The Trump administration is reportedly giving China a pass on its questionable activities in the South China Sea.

"U.S. Pacific Command requested permission a few weeks ago to conduct a freedom-of-navigation operation within 12 nautical miles of the disputed Scarborough Shoal, territory claimed by both Manila and Beijing. The Pentagon turned down the request, just as it did to earlier Navy requests in February, reports the New York Times.

"The requests were denied before they ever reached the White House.

"Throughout much of the Obama administration, the president was hesitant to conduct freedom-of-navigation operations for fear of angering China. Despite clear signs of Chinese expansionism and militarization in the South China Sea for years prior, former President Barack Obama did not authorize any freedom-of-navigation operations in the South China Sea until Sept. 2015.

"The U.S. has sent ships to challenge Chinese claims in the South China Sea four times, yet during the first 100 days of the Trump administration, the U.S. has yet to pressure China at sea.

"Secretary of Defense James Mattis reportedly expressed a strong desire for regular freedom-of-navigation operations during his trip to Japan in February, in order to counter Chinese expansionism through the development of artificial islands and the construction of military outposts.

"The Navy Times reported in mid-February that the Navy and PACOM wanted to increase the frequency of freedom-of-navigation operations in the South China Sea.

“All of the language, combined with the fact that the Republican foreign policy establishment had been critical of Obama for not carrying out enough [freedom-of-navigation operations], means there was a wide expectation that Trump would put down a marker early. And that has not happened,” Robert Daly, director of the Kissinger Institute on China and the US at the Wilson Center, told The New York Times.

"U.S. officials told CNN that the decision to hold off on freedom-of-navigation operations stems from the Trump administration’s desire to see China rein in North Korea. President Donald Trump has backed away from his earlier claims to punish China for its unfair trading practices to persuade the country to cooperate.

"Trump accused China in March of last year of building “a military fortress” in the South China Sea, “the likes of which perhaps the world has not seen.” He added, “They do that at will because they have no respect for our president, and they have no respect for our country.” That rhetoric has faded though.

"The Trump administration argues that “North Korea represents the most serious security threat in the world,” suggesting that past issues, such as the South China Sea, can be shifted to the back burner.

"The Pentagon told CNN that the U.S. will continue to conduct freedom-of-navigation operations, but the “operations will be released publicly in the annual FONOPs report, and not sooner.”

"Since December, analysts have detected extensive militarization in the Paracel Islands and the Spratly Islands, strengthening China’s military presence in contested waters."

The full article:

Is Donald Trump Giving Up on the South China Sea?

The Trump administration is reportedly giving China a pass on its questionable activities in the South China Sea.

U.S. Pacific Command requested permission a few weeks ago to conduct a freedom-of-navigation operation within 12 nautical miles of the disputed Scarborough Shoal, territory claimed by both Manila and Beijing. The Pentagon turned down the request, just as it did to earlier Navy requests in February, reports the New York Times.

The requests were denied before they ever reached the White House.

Throughout much of the Obama administration, the president was hesitant to conduct freedom-of-navigation operations for fear of angering China. Despite clear signs of Chinese expansionism and militarization in the South China Sea for years prior, former President Barack Obama did not authorize any freedom-of-navigation operations in the South China Sea until Sept. 2015.

The U.S. has sent ships to challenge Chinese claims in the South China Sea four times, yet during the first 100 days of the Trump administration, the U.S. has yet to pressure China at sea.

Secretary of Defense James Mattis reportedly expressed a strong desire for regular freedom-of-navigation operations during his trip to Japan in February, in order to counter Chinese expansionism through the development of artificial islands and the construction of military outposts.

The Navy Times reported in mid-February that the Navy and PACOM wanted to increase the frequency of freedom-of-navigation operations in the South China Sea.

“All of the language, combined with the fact that the Republican foreign policy establishment had been critical of Obama for not carrying out enough [freedom-of-navigation operations], means there was a wide expectation that Trump would put down a marker early. And that has not happened,” Robert Daly, director of the Kissinger Institute on China and the US at the Wilson Center, told The New York Times.

U.S. officials told CNN that the decision to hold off on freedom-of-navigation operations stems from the Trump administration’s desire to see China rein in North Korea. President Donald Trump has backed away from his earlier claims to punish China for its unfair trading practices to persuade the country to cooperate.

Trump accused China in March of last year of building “a military fortress” in the South China Sea, “the likes of which perhaps the world has not seen.” He added, “They do that at will because they have no respect for our president, and they have no respect for our country.” That rhetoric has faded though.

The Trump administration argues that “North Korea represents the most serious security threat in the world,” suggesting that past issues, such as the South China Sea, can be shifted to the back burner.

The Pentagon told CNN that the U.S. will continue to conduct freedom-of-navigation operations, but the “operations will be released publicly in the annual FONOPs report, and not sooner.”

Since December, analysts have detected extensive militarization in the Paracel Islands and the Spratly Islands, strengthening China’s military presence in contested waters.

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Golez: I agree that it is worrisome to see the US appearing to make a deal with China to rein in or discipline North Korea expressed in possible trade concessions in favor of China.

Golez: I agree that it is worrisome to see the US appearing to make a deal with China to rein in or discipline North Korea expressed in possible trade concessions in favor of China. Worrisome because the next question is what other items were on the table in making the deal? Taiwan? Senkakus? South China Sea? It could lead to dangerous speculation by the allies of the US. It could also lead to China's renewed aggressiveness in other fronts, now that they may have a US IOU in their pockets. I note the following valid observations:

"Then again, Trump also tweeted that if China fails to “deal” with the North, “the U.S., with its allies, will.”

"As a result, Beijing is starting to play ball with Trump. China canceled North Korean coal shipments and pointedly declined last week to join Russia in vetoing a US-sponsored resolution on Syria at the United Nations Security Council. That signaled its diplomatic alliance with Moscow against us is no longer automatic.

"Most important, some of Beijing’s tightly controlled state-owned media are now warning Pyongyang that a nuclear test would be a no-no.

"Yes, Beijing is angry with the current Pyongyang top man — the craziest, most unpredictable of the three Kims it has dealt with. But the young Trump presidency can also claim credit for the Chinese finally starting to acknowledge the reality that North Korea endangers everyone.