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The dangers that can arise from mismanaged proliferation are profound and numerous. There is the danger that the proliferation process itself could give one of the existing nuclear powers a strong incentive to stop a non-nuclear neighbor from joining the nuclear club. For example, Israel (an undeclared Nuclear Power) used force to stop Iraq from acquiring a nuclear capability. There is also the danger that an unstable nuclear competition could emerge among some of the new nuclear states like India and Pakistan; moreover, other the danger could emerge among unstable countries such as Iraq, which is developing own nuclear weapons.

Iraq might lack the resources to make the nuclear forces invulnerable, which could create first-strike incentives. Also, there is the danger that proliferation would increase the risk that nuclear weapons could be fired by accident, captured by terrorists, or change possession because of shaky governments. In addition to random mistakes governments could make, the threat of nuclear proliferation and the United States reluctance to heed the problem has only given the world more reason to argue over the problem. Article VI of the Nuclear Proliferation Treaty links nonproliferation and disarmament by committing the parties to pursue negotiations in good faith to end the nuclear-arms race and to achieve nuclear disarmament. Top U. S.

officials (and British, French, and Russian officials) acknowledge in private that they view Article VI as an inconvenience to which they must pay occasional lip service. They argue that their nuclear weapons do not threaten countries such as India, Pakistan, or Iran. Consequently, any attempt to tie nonproliferation to nuclear disarmament is merely a political pretext to cover regional and domestic motivations for seeking nuclear weapons. This argument has merit, but not so much as defenders of the nuclear status quo think. Nations can readily claim a chain of security threats that lead back to the five declared nuclear-weapons states: For instance, Pakistan's nuclear ambitions stem from Indias, which stem from Chinas, which stem from those of Russia and the United States. Meanwhile, Iran says it is threatened by American and Israeli nuclear weapons.

The nuclear powers can and should marshal strong arguments that in fact Iran and Iraq would derive less security from building adequate nuclear forces to counter their putative threats than from pursuing bilateral, regional, and international diplomacy to reduce tensions. Easing tensions will only come from a commitment of the destruction of all nuclear weapons. The high military value that the nuclear-weapon states put on their arsenals throughout the Cold War and unwillingness of these states to devalue them significantly since 1991 has undoubtedly influenced other countries, especially in the Middle East, where the situation is not stable because of clash of interests between western powers and Middle East countries. In the 1970 s Iraq began a systematic buildup of its armed forces; at the end of the Iran-Iraq War in 1988, there were more than one million men under arms. By 1990 Iraq had the most powerful army of any Arab state and the fourth or fifth largest in the world. The army had a plentiful supply of modern Soviet weapons, and it has gained battle experience against Israel (in Syria in 1973), in operations against the Kurds, and in a large-scale war against Iran.

Iraq's technologies were purchased from the Soviet Union. Nowadays, Iraq continues to utilize scientists from the former Soviet Union countries to improve its armed forces and it is very likely that Iraq is working on the nuclear weapon development program, since the country currently has almost all capabilities to do so.

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