The world sorghum and millet economies: facts, trends and outlook. (1996)

Part II. Millet

Introduction

Production trends

Utilization

International trade, market prices and stocks

Internal marketing and domestic policies

Technological change, environmental issues and focus of research

Medium-term outlook5

Summary and Conclusions

Annex I: Types of millet

Annex II: Relative importance of millet species, 1992-94.

Summary and Conclusions

Pearl millet is grown largely for its ability to produce grain
under hot, dry conditions on infertile soils of low water-holding capacity,
where other crops generally fail completely. Correspondingly, it is produced
mainly in outlying areas peripheral to the major production and population
centres of the developing world. Yields are low, averaging only three-quarters
of sorghum yields in Africa and Asia. Most farmers who rely on this crop are
quite poor and frequently experience food shortfalls. Little of the millet
production enters the commercial market; most never leaves the farm on which it
is grown. Rather, many millet farmers are more likely to be food buyers than
sellers.

The combination of poverty and severe environmental conditions
makes it difficult to improve productivity in pearl millet. While yields are
growing in Asia, many African producers are unable to raise yields because of
the continuing expansion into even drier and harsher agroecologies and poor
adoption of "improved" technologies in these environments. A major reason for
poor adoption is that some of these technologies are expensive or otherwise
inappropriate for these harsh environments.

The growth of pearl millet yields in Asia is due to the adoption
of improved cultivars (both hybrid and open-pollinated) and at least limited
investments in fertility maintenance. Farmers are also expanding investments in
water conservation technologies as land constraints become more severe. Yield
improvements would be greater if the move to more remunerative oilseed crops
(e.g., groundnut, sesame and castor) were not so prevalent in the more
favourable pearl millet production areas in Asia.

In Africa, by contrast, most farmers continue to plant
traditional landrace cultivars. While there are signs of interest in new
open-pollinated cultivars, private seed companies do not believe this area is
profitable, and public sector investments in seed production are limited. The
widespread promotion of hybrids in Asia has encouraged private investment in
seed production, but the prospects for hybrid adoption in Africa remain unknown.
The costs of distributing hybrid seed are higher than in Asia (because
population densities are lower), and the willingness of the often poorer African
farmer to purchase hybrid seed remains untested. However, given the low seed
requirement and the low production costs (because of high multiplication rates),
even poor pearl millet producers in Africa, similar to their counterparts in
Asia, may find it worthwhile to invest in improved seed, either hybrid or
open-pollinated.

There are strong justifications for more government investment
in millet seed production and distribution as a means of reducing the costs of
relief during droughts. Care must be taken to ensure that certification
regulations for improved seed are reasonable and enforceable. Previous
experience has shown that unreasonably stringent regulations serve only to
restrict competition in the seed industry, resulting in seed shortages and
unnecessarily high seed prices.

Prospects for the adoption of improved management technologies
in both Africa and Asia are limited, for several reasons. Firstly, the high
variability in annual rainfall, especially in Africa, makes it difficult for
farmers to judge potential investment returns. Secondly, labour constraints
restrict the adoption of improved soil and water conservation systems as
households send children to school and adults to urban areas in search of
employment. And thirdly, farmers judge the returns to cash investment in inputs,
such as fertilizer, against the gains obtained by saving to buy food or
livestock or education for their children.

Such factors require scientists and extension workers to be more
imaginative in developing technologies suited to these difficult production
environments. Breeders need to consider more carefully the trade-offs that
farmers calculate between grain and fodder, between yield and yield stability,
and between input responsiveness and productivity under low-input conditions.
Resource management scientists must assume that farmers' decisions will change
depending on rainfall levels over the course of the season, and target narrow
opportunities for even marginal improvements in water-use efficiency and soil
fertility. These may include aiming for a small investment in chemical
fertilizer to complement the use of manure, or a legume rotation rather than a
short-run profit-maximizing investment entailing higher production risk.

The prospects for expanding commercial trade in Africa are
limited. The biggest opportunity lies in the expansion of trade between surplus
and deficit rural households. This is made difficult by the variability of
year-to-year production and the long distances between households in areas of
relatively low population density. Traders face difficulties in identifying
surplus and deficit areas, and the costs of grain collection and transport are
high. However, there may be scope for improvements in market information systems
and investment incentives to encourage private investment in grain trade. These
have proven beneficial in India where there is greater, but still limited,
commercial trade in millet grain. These investments can be justified as a
component of national and regional drought relief strategies. In areas where
inter-seasonal and inter-annual millet prices are highly variable, drought
relief programmes could also seek to strengthen household and village grain
stocks, for which millet is well adapted.

Small quantities of millet grain are traded for use as flour and
beer malt in both Africa and Asia. In Africa, low productivity and high
transport costs will restrict this trade to a high-priced premium market. In
Asia, higher productivity and lower marketing costs (associated with higher
population densities and better market infrastructure) offer better prospects
for expanding millet sales. However, it will still be difficult for millet to
compete with other cereals grown on substantially more productive land in
regions with higher rainfall. In areas where millet is competitive in terms of
price and feed value, demand for millet grain for fish and poultry feed may
grow. Pearl millet has the advantage of superior adaptation to high temperatures
and infertile soils with low water-holding capacity. In specific areas where
these constraints are important, millet grain will compete effectively as a
livestock feed against other cereals that must be transported across long
distances at considerable expense. Further, there will remain a market niche for
millet trade as bird seed.

There are indications that pearl millet is becoming increasingly
important as a forage crop and as a cover crop or mulch for intensive legumes
production on tropical acid soils. Further, it appears that pearl millet will
soon become a regionally important alternative feed grain in subtropical areas
in several countries. However, these new uses are relatively minor compared to
the importance of millets as food crops of the rural poor, primarily in the
tropics.

In sum, millet will remain largely associated with the food
security of drought-prone human populations. Productivity has lagged,
particularly in Africa, because of the severity of this environment and the
pressure of human population growth on traditional land-extensive fallow
systems. Correspondingly, productivity improvements will contribute most
directly to the alleviation of poverty and food insecurity. The prospects for
the expansion of market flows are reasonable if targeted within food-deficit
areas. However, the prospects for commercial trade are limited, except in small
specialty markets for flour, malt, feed grain and bird
seed.