Trans-Pacific Partnership could be worth almost nothing to Australia

Over the five years it was negotiated, the potential economic impact of the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), set to become one of the biggest free trade deals of all time, has been condemned and praised with equal ferocity.

As few knew what was actually detailed in the agreement until it concluded in October 2015 — besides hints delivered via drafts released on WikiLeaks — it has been difficult for anyone to quantify its future effect on the economies of the 12 negotiating nations, including Australia, the U.S., Malaysia, Mexico and New Zealand.

Hailing the deal last year, a statement from Australian Trade Minister Andrew Robb claimed the TPP would deliver "enormous benefits" to Australia, including lowering tariffs on some Australian exports and creating a more stable investment environment.

Now the World Bank has looked into the matter, and as it turns out, all that secrecy has added up to very little for Australia.

The World Bank's report, found the TPP would boost the Australian economy by a mere 0.7% by the year 2030. In other words, not much.

According to Fairfax Media's calculations, nations like Vietnam and Malaysia will see the biggest benefit, with gains in GDP of 10% and 8%, respectively. Along with Australia, the U.S. would see the least benefit at 0.4% by 2030.

For some critics, that small gain could potentially come at too great a cost for Australia once the fine detail of the agreement is considered. When the text of the deal was released, for example, the Australian Free Trade and Investment Network (AFTINET) condemned the inclusion of terms that would allow corporations to sue governments if they considered domestic laws to have damaged their interests.

While the ability for the tobacco industry to take certain legal action — like the case of tobacco company Philip Morris, which in December 2015, lost its legal case against the Australian government for cigarette plain packaging regulations — have been specifically excluded from the TPP, AFTINET fears safeguards will not be sufficient to protect other laws passed in the name of public health or the environment.

In a statement emailed to Mashable Australia Tuesday, the office of the minister for trade said the World Bank report demonstrated that the 12 TPP member countries would experience "economic growth and increased exports under the agreement."

"The historic Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement (TPP) will deliver enormous benefits to Australia by enhancing our competitiveness, and promoting job creation, growth and higher living standards," it said. "As well as slashing tariff barriers, it will drive Australia’s integration in the fast-growing Asia-Pacific."

To ratify the treaty, Australia will have to table it in parliament. The opposition Labor party has not yet indicated whether it will support the deal.

Consumer advocacy groups, including Choice, have previously called for a "full cost-benefit analysis" of the TPP to be conducted by the Productivity Commission.

"This agreement has the potential to impact every aspect of the Australian economy. It's too big to ignore the fine print which is why we need a full and transparent assessment of its impact before signature," Choice said in a statement.

Mashable
is a global, multi-platform media and entertainment company. Powered by its own proprietary technology, Mashable is the go-to source for tech, digital culture and entertainment content for its dedicated and influential audience around the globe.