BANJA LUKA, Bosnia-Herzegovina — A potentially explosive referendum on independence will not be held in Bosnia-Herzegovina’s Serb Republic next year as its ruling party had proposed, President Milorad Dodik told POLITICO.

But Dodik described Bosnia-Herzegovina as a whole as a “failing state” on a path to further fragmentation. He also criticized the European Union, which he said was “fading away,” and praised Russia and China for offering the Balkans friendship without attaching political conditions.

Many politicians, diplomats and analysts believe an independence declaration by the Serb Republic would trigger a new conflict in Bosnia-Herzegovina and more violence elsewhere in the Balkans as other ethnic groups attempt to redraw national borders. International officials have repeatedly warned Serb Republic leaders against secession, making clear it would be regarded as illegal and would not be recognized by Western powers.

The Serb Republic, populated mainly by ethnic Serbs, is one of Bosnia-Herzegovina’s two autonomous regions, known as “entities,” established under the Dayton peace agreement that ended the 1992-1995 Bosnian war, in which 100,000 people died. The other region is the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina, which is home mainly to Bosniak Muslims and Croats.

Some critics of the Dayton accord see the Serb Republic as the product of mass ethnic cleansing, while many Bosnian Serbs believe it preserves their rights and identity in a country that would otherwise be hostile to them.

“We won’t organize a referendum on secession in 2018,” Dodik said in a plush reception room of the art deco presidency building in Banja Luka, the Serb Republic’s de facto capital. “We understand the circumstances, the context. A referendum in 2018 would cause many reactions, and we still want to build up the momentum to have it legitimized as our right.”

Dodik made clear, however, that he was not taking the prospect of secession off the table. “Whether some of the forthcoming years will raise that issue, we’ll see, I don’t know,” he said. “But I’m sure that we are following that path — the path to independence.”

Dodik has said on several occasions that the Serb Republic could declare independence, and last year his Alliance of Independent Social Democrats (SNSD) adopted a policy of holding a referendum in 2018 if the entity was not granted greater autonomy. However, senior diplomats have said that secession would be unconstitutional and lead to Dodik’s removal by international officials, who still have significant powers in Bosnia-Herzegovina.

Bosnian Serbs gather to attend a police parade on January 9, 2017, as part of “The Day of Republika Srpska” in Banja Luka | STR/AFP via Getty Images

In January, the United States imposed sanctions on Dodik, claiming that he “violated the rule of law and poses a significant risk of obstructing the implementation of the Dayton accords,” following a controversial referendum on marking the Serb Republic’s national day. That vote was seen by many as a dry run for a potential referendum on secession.

Stability challenges

The possibility of the Serb Republic seceding is one of several challenges to stability in the Balkans, along with continued disputes between Kosovo’s ethnic Albanian majority and Serb leaders in Belgrade, disputes over the rights of Albanians in Macedonia, and allegations of Russian attempts to foment trouble in Montenegro.

Dodik argues that the state of Bosnia-Herzegovina is artificial and failing — and that the country’s Serbs should have the same right to go their own way as the ethnic Albanians of Kosovo, who declared independence in 2008. (Serbia, however, regards Kosovo as a rebel province. Bosnia-Herzegovina has also not recognized Kosovo, due to opposition from its Serb leaders.)

“I’d like this to be part of Serbia, because this is a Serbian city, and it could be better” — Natalia Radić, 16-year-old student

“Maybe there is no sense, no logic, to living in a state that has almost failed,” Dodik said. “Why is Bosnia and Herzegovina a guaranteed political category, why does it have to exist?”

Serbs now make up around 33 percent of Bosnia’s population, according to the 2013 census, the first held since the end of the war, with most living in the Serb Republic.

Surveys suggest that the majority of the entity’s population favors independence, which some see as a precursor to union with Serbia.

Banja Luka already has the feel of the capital city of a small country, with public institutions lining boulevards, monuments to war dead in the parks, and the Serb Republic’s flag — similar in appearance to Serbia’s — widely on display. Bosnian national flags and symbols are far less common.

“This [referendum] is something that needs to happen,” said Mladen Ignjatić, a 54-year-old driver who once lived in the U.K., as he strolled in the sunshine past the Serb Republic’s national theater, with its engravings of traditional instruments and pistols. “I’m overcome with emotion by this question. Without the Serb Republic, the Serbs aren’t able to survive. This place is a Serb place.”

Natalia Radić, a 16-year-old student walking down the pedestrianized main street near the towering Orthodox cathedral — rebuilt after it was destroyed by Croatian fascists during World War II — voiced similar sentiments.

“I’d like this to be part of Serbia, because this is a Serbian city, and it could be better,” she said, dismissing talk that changing borders could lead to war. “Anything could lead to war, the politicians are always seeking war.”

‘Dangerous guy’

But for many, it is precisely the talk of secession that threatens renewed conflict. Senad Bratić, vice president of the Serb Republic’s parliament and a member of the opposition Bosniak Party of Democratic Action, said that a breakaway would inevitably lead to bloodshed.

“The question about separating or joining Serbia should be followed by another question: Are you ready to pay the cost?” Bratić said in an interview in the parliament building. “You can only imagine how many deaths, injuries, lost lives there would be. Are you willing to pay that price? There is another side that will defend these borders.”

“I don’t think Dodik has a real plan to go forward with a referendum” — Aleksandar Savanović, political scientist

Like many critics of Dodik — and other politicians who rely heavily on appeals to ethnic identity — Bratić argues that the Serb Republic’s leaders use talk of independence to distract from grave economic problems. Bosnia has one of the world’s highest youth unemployment rates, at over 50 percent, while the average net wage is only about €440.

“Certain politicians use subjects like this to influence people in a negative but effective way,” Bratić said.

Bratić said that he sees this effect fading, however, as citizens become aware of the hopelessness of nationalist politics, and says that he doubts a referendum on the Serb Republic’s status will ever be called.

Aleksandar Savanović, a political scientist and expert in secessionist movements at the University of Banja Luka, agreed that Dodik uses the threat of secession as a way to boost his popularity.

“I don’t think Dodik has a real plan to go forward with a referendum,” said Savanović, who fought in the Serb army during the war and advises a senior member of the opposition Serb Democratic Party. “If there was a good economic situation here, I’m sure he wouldn’t use extreme nationalist rhetoric. But there is a risk — Dodik is a dangerous guy for all of us, not just Bosnia but all the Western Balkans.”

A potentially explosive referendum on independence will not be held in Bosnia-Herzegovina’s Serb Republic next year as its ruling party had proposed, says President Milorad Dodik | Elvis Barukcic/ AFP via Getty

However, Dodik insisted that a move toward independence would not lead to bloodshed in the region unless there is international intervention.

He was scathing about the international community’s role in the Balkans, particularly that of the Obama administration and the European Union. Dodik said it is uncertain whether the EU will survive, although he asserted that the Serb Republic still wishes to join the bloc “if it gets stabilized.”

“The European Union is fading away,” he said. “The very fact that Britain is going out, that any elections are observed traumatically, it tells a lot about the whole story of the situation of the EU. And it shows that the EU image now is not the same as it was 10 years ago.”

Dodik said that, on the other hand, China’s influence is “much, much stronger — they are offering economic solutions without political interference.”

Despite Western allegations that Moscow is stirring Serb separatism and using Dodik as a cat’s paw in the Balkans, the Serb Republic president asserted that he had never discussed secession with Vladimir Putin, focusing instead on economic development. But he contrasted Putin’s approach with that of the EU and past U.S. administrations.

“They [Russia] haven’t asked anything from me, to do anything impossible. But when I go to Brussels, when I went to Washington previously, pressure was put on me and on many other politicians from here as well. So what’s natural? Is it natural that you go somewhere where you are welcome, or to go somewhere where the pressure is put on you?”

Related stories on these topics:

Giuseppe Marrosu

In my humble opinion governments and borders should be established for the happiness of the people. Instead the borders in the former Yugoslavia were established to end the conflicts quickly and with minimal short-term costs. Territorial gains obtained by use of force were ratified with the Dayton Agreement which is terrible because it basically rewards ethnic cleansing! On the other hand traditionally Croatian and Serbian territories became trapped in Bosnia and Kosovo just because they were not inside the borders of Croatia or Serbia, respectively, in the map of the late Yugoslavia. All those people cannot help experiencing a feeling of injustice. On the long term it will not pay.

Posted on 6/29/17 | 12:40 PM CEST

dave

Croatia is independent, they accomplished it by commiting genocide on Serbs in WWII and further expulsion of what was left of Serbs in the 90s.

Posted on 6/29/17 | 1:28 PM CEST

Brian.

Time to try some options. Abolish Serb republic. See what happens. If bad things happen abolish Bosnia.

Posted on 6/29/17 | 7:54 PM CEST

Earle

So Serbia acknowledges and supports the identity of BiH and is willing to maintain and foster regional stability and development- so where does this drive come from to splinter and subdivide this sovereign recognized state into a patchwork of unsustainable regions… consider a map of BiH now ..and see where is the separated zone of RS and ask how can such a variegated region be connected? How can it sustain economic and regional development?
The question arising from ‘Maybe there is no sense, no logic, to living in a state that has almost failed,’ is more directed to RS than to the Federation. Further consider the murky past of the drivers of such a division; war criminals, corrupt business men, bankers who have bled the tills dry, officials who either turned a blind eye or smiled with reddened eyes the eviction in one form or another of any who did not conform with their vision of an acceptable social construct. In an age of acceptance of diversity one must question those who deny such a reality. Personally I see RS as a product of ignorance and pitiful violence, politically I see it as a fabrication of isolationists and chauvinists.. not that I am biased.. just a humanist.

Posted on 6/30/17 | 11:12 AM CEST

Brian.

Serbia supports Bosnia through Dayton! Dayton accords allowed for The creation of republika Srpska and the Croat Muslim federation! No RS maybe no more support from Serbia for Dayton or Bosnia. RS is more successful than CMF! If Kosovo can be a country with almost no industry so can RS! Kosovo has enormous unemployment, corruption , crime, mafia, organ trafficking, human trafficking, etc!