'We're looking into the abyss': Conservative MPs are on the brink of bringing down Theresa May

Prime Minister Theresa May has suffered the most
perilous week of her premiership.

After suffering numerous resignations and a
parliamentary defeat, May's party remains on the brink of a
challenge against her.

Conservative MPs are under pressure not to risk a
Jeremy Corbyn government.

But as May heads towards Brexit, her grip on power is
at its most fragile yet.

LONDON - "We've looked into the abyss in the last few days and
we've all got a decision about what to do."

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They're the words of Conservative MP, Simon Clarke, who was
standing in a wood-lined corridor inside the UK Houses of
Parliament on Wednesday evening. He was surrounded by about 20
political journalists, after having just confronted Prime
Minister Theresa May.

Just moments before, May emerged from a private meeting with
Clarke and dozens of other Conservative MPs having sought to
reassure them that she is still fit to lead them after what has
been the most chaotic and perilous week of her leadership so far.

We have looked into the abyss over the last few days.

In recent days the prime minister has lost two senior members of
her Cabinet plus multiple ministers and junior government aides,
who all resigned in protest over her handling of Brexit.

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In the hour before the meeting, her former foreign secretary had
also
delivered a withering assessment of her leadership to the
House of Commons, accusing her of pursuing "Brexit in Name Only"
and suggesting a "fog of uncertainty" has descended over her
premiership.

The darkest moment for May came on Tuesday night when her
government lost one vote on Brexit legislation and
only narrowly defeated another amendment on staying in a
customs union with the EU, which had it passed, would have almost
certainly triggered a vote of no confidence in her leadership and
ultimately a general election.

For Clarke, it has been a painful and emotional few days.

"Breaking point"

caption

Theresa May alongside her Chancellor Philip Hammond and the former Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson.

source

Getty

"It has brought the Conservative party to breaking
point frankly," he told assembled journalists.

"And we have looked into the abyss over the last few days. I
looked around the chamber after we lost that vote and it is a
horrible feeling. It's a blow in the stomach for all of us."

Clarke is one of around 40 Conservative MPs who had submitted a
letter calling for a no-confidence vote in May. This number is
perilously close to the 48 that is required to trigger a
leadership challenge and in recent days government whips have
been pressuring MPs such as Clarke to withdraw their letters.

Among the tactics used by whips has been to warn MPs that any
threat to May would lead to a general election. After suffering
what was a truly disastrous campaign in 2017 when May lost her
parliamentary majority and came perilously close to allowing
Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn into Downing Street, many
Conservative MPs are understandably reluctant to risk another
election so soon.

"The threat of a Corbyn government or of no Brexit at all has to
be borne in mind," Clarke explains.

The threat of a Corbyn government or of no Brexit at all has to
be borne in mind.

"A Conservative civil war is not where we want to be at this
time."

For Clarke, the Corbyn threat has worked. After May addressed her
MPs, Clarke stood up and told the prime minister that he had
decided to withdraw his letter calling for a vote of no
confidence in her.

Afterwards, he told journalists that while he continues to have
"grave concerns" about May's leadership he is willing to give her
one last chance.

"The mood in the parliamentary party is very clear: 'thus far and
no further' and that is a widespread sentiment among colleagues."

He added: "I don't want to go into the summer feeling like I have
done over the past few days, which is that the party is at war
with itself...

"There will be a moment of truth... but it's is not for me to
force that [moment] by the distraction of a leadership
challenge."

"Moment of truth"

caption

Theresa May alongside Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn and former prime minister Tony Blair and John Major.

source

Getty

For May, that "moment of truth" is likely to come in
the autumn when she finalises whatever deal she is able to secure
from the EU.

If and when she manages that, she will then have to convince her
own MPs that the deal is worth signing up to. The evidence from
this week is that this will be a phenomenally hard task for her
to achieve.

The UK government has taken the best part of two years to come to
an agreed position on Brexit and only at the expense of a series
of resignations and rebellions from Conservative MPs.

And yet even after that painful process has concluded, the agreed
position is still highly unlikely to be acceptable either to the
EU, or ultimately the UK parliament. So while May appears to have
passed this week's moment of maximum threat to her leadership, it
still feels only like a stay of execution, rather than a full
reprieve.

May remains on the brink

source

Reuters / Toby Melville

After leaving the
meeting, May returned to Downing Street where she hosted a summer
drinks reception for around 100 political journalists in the back
garden of Number 10.

She seemed relatively relaxed as she chatted about the World Cup,
Wimbledon and the recent visit of Donald Trump. Her aides too,
seem relieved that they have reached the end of what one of the
worst periods of her premiership.

[Boris] had an opportunity to prove he was a serious politician
and he f***ed it up.

It could have all ended very differently, however. Defeat on the
customs union vote would have undoubtedly triggered a full-scale
challenge against May and Boris Johnson's speech, instead of
being a parting shot at May, could have been the opening fire in
a full-scale leadership challenge.

Thankfully for May, Boris' appeal appears to have waned with his
party. Following his speech yesterday, one Brexiteer Conservative
MP told Business Insider that Johnson's chaotic period in charge
at the Foreign Office, during which time he became embroiled in a
series of gaffes and scandals, had fatally damaged his chances.

"He had an opportunity to prove he was a serious politician and
he f***ed it up," the MP said curtly.

This combination of a lack of credible rivals and the threat of a
Corbyn government have been enough to stave off a challenge to
May. Indeed, it is this combination of her own weakness and the
weakness of her party, that is some senses her greatest strength.

Yet as the evening draws to a close in Westminster there is a
lasting sense that May is living on borrowed time in Downing
Street.

While her party may have stepped back from pushing May into "the
abyss" this week, that has only been because they are worried
about being dragged into it with her.

And as the government heads ever closer to it's final "moment of
truth" on Brexit, that calculation could rapidly change.