Real Money

Oil, Forex And the Chinese Wall

Tumbling oil prices strengthen U.S. dollar.

NEW YORK ( TheLFB-Forex.com ) -- Oil prices are tumbling after U.S. crude inventory numbers came in positive at 5 million barrels, instead of the priced-in number of negative 1 million barrels.

The price appreciation had gotten ahead of itself compared to global demand, and to add 6 million barrels over the expected inventory read justifies the 2.5% haircut that August crude prices have just had. The impact is for the U.S. dollar to strengthen, and by default that will add to the move to bonds, which in turn will pressure equity valuations in the near-term.

Regional currency values are dropping against the dollar, to the delight of the regional central banks that have been seeing Treasury reserve values dropping at the same time that regional currencies have been gaining in value; not something that many would want to see in the current economic recovery cycle. Wednesday brings with it a read that the markets have fair value of the dollar, after a run by the major pairs recently that got them to the outer ranges of the four-hour charts.

The reversal from main resistance areas this week has taken some froth off the dollar selling, but interestingly, has still left the major currencies in long mode against the greenback. It all points to possible reversals, of the reversal seen this week, which maybe now will offer the time to look to buy the test of support on the major currencies, if global equity markets hold steady, and oil holds above $63.50 a barrel.