Most Canvey Island Independent voters are white working-class small-c conservatives, who mostly vote Tory in general elections but would probably back Ukip if they were challenging for the seat. Virtually a dead heat between the Conservatives and Ukip on May 2nd.

Rayleigh & Wickford
Con 7936
UKIP 6719
LD 2141
Lab 2169

Another seat closer than it looks. Ukip’s vote in Rayleigh North was hit by an English Democrat standing and polling 660. In Rochford West a Green candidate won with 1615 votes. As in Hythe, these are unlikely to transfer to a Green parliamentary candidate.

The neighbouring seat of Basildon South & East Thurrock could be interesting, but as most of it is within Thurrock unitary authority, only two wards were contested this time round.

With the Independents strong and one division where Ukip didn’t stand, that could go any one of three ways!

All of which chimes with Lord Ashcroft’s polling from last December, as analysed by Anthony Wells’ UK Polling Report here (and still relevant 6 months’ later):

… UKIP support is not particularly connected with Europe, it is an anti-immigration vote and protest vote against some aspects of modern Britain, a general reactionary vote in support of taking Britain back to a status quo ante.

The fact that UKIP support is not primarily driven by attitudes to Europe suggests that a referendum on EU membership is not the sort of elixir that some people seem to consider it to be. That’s not to say it wouldn’t shift votes, or appeal to people with the sort of values that lead them to support UKIP… just don’t expect it to magically lure all those votes back to the Conservatives overnight. More pertinent is the degree to which UKIP sympathisers who prefer Cameron and the Conservatives to Miliband and Labour will end up returning to the Conservatives once an actual election arrives, and the degree to which UKIP has replaced the Liberal Democrats as a vehicle for mid-term protest votes from people unhappy with both the government and the opposition. Right now there is no good way of measuring that.

My naked run down Whitehall…

He promised on a past DP to run naked along Whitehall if Lib Dem numbers were slashed in the general election. We have reminded him of the pledge before, but did blogger Stephen Tall deliver? Here's his film on Wednesday's DP.