2006: A Decisive Year for the Balkans

Article excerpt

Experts are forecasting a whirl of diplomatic activity in the
Balkans in the coming months, making 2006 a decisive year for the
war-torn region.

Splintered by ethnic conflicts in the 1990s, segments of the
former Yugoslavia are pushing for solutions to the legacies of those
years. Several states in the region are moving toward EU membership.

Developments may include the creation of two new countries, as
Kosovo and Montenegro look to break away from Serbia. It could also
mean a makeover for Bosnia-Herzegovina.

And many hope Serbia, like Croatia, will round up the last of its
war crimes suspects: the UN war crimes tribunal's two most-wanted
suspects are thought to be hiding in Serbia more than a decade after
being indicted for genocide during the 1992-95 Bosnian war.

What's going to happen with Kosovo?

Though the province is still technically part of Serbia, the UN
has been running it since the fighting ended in 1999. The majority
Kosovar Albanians want independence, while the minority Serbs want
to remain part of Serbia. The Serbs envision carving the province
into Serb and Albanian areas - a model tried in Bosnia, which is
still not fully sovereign more than a decade after the guns fell
silent.

In November, UN envoy Martti Ahtisaari came to the region to lay
the groundwork for talks that were supposed to start on Jan. 25. But
Kosovo President Ibrahim Rugova's death last week delayed the talks,
now expected to begin this month. Absent a strong leader like Mr.
Rugova, Kosovar Albanian politicians are again jockeying for seats
on the negotiating team.

It's likely that the majority Albanians will have to give some
power to the Serb minority, and agree to some oversight from the UN
or the European Union, giving the province conditional independence.
While Kosovo's constant power and water outages may not make it
Europe's most viable new state, independence would remove the threat
of a new war posed by any handover of Kosovo to Serbia.

Why does Montenegro want independence?

As the other Yugoslav republics broke ranks in the early 1990s,
Montenegro's 650,000 people stuck with Serbia. But while Serbia's
former president Slobodan Milosevic - now in his fourth year on
trial at the UN war crimes tribunal in The Hague - fought and lost
three wars, ruining Serbia's economy and international standing,
Montenegro adopted the euro and ran its own internal and foreign
affairs.

The republic got its own dubious reputation as a kleptocracy,
however, as media reported on Prime Minister Milo Djukanovic's
alleged involvement in the lucrative Balkan cigarette-smuggling
trade. But the EU now says that Montenegro has made some small
improvements in the rule of law and the fragile economy, and has
more of the characteristics of a country than it did even three
years ago. …