GIS data: .shp
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALLTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMMTROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL800 PM EDT THU OCT 14 2010FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICALSTORM PAULA...LOCATED ABOUT 25 MILES EAST OF HAVANA CUBA AND ABOUT45 MILES WEST OF VERADERO CUBA.1. AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERNCARIBBEAN SEA. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE ONLY MARGINALLYFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...BUTCONDITIONS MAY BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE AFTERWARDS. THERE IS A LOWCHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONEDURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES LITTLE.ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THENEXT 48 HOURS.$$FORECASTER STEWARTNNNN

I will be closely monitoring a tropical disturbance located over the extreme southwest Caribbean. This disturbed weather is in association with a weak trough of low pressure. As of this morning, there are no signs of organization, so development is unlikely for at least the next 36 to 48 hours or so. After that, development may become more likely as environmental conditions will become more favorable as we get into next week.
Most of the model guidance members are now forecasting tropical cyclone development in this area. The latest GFS and Canadian models forecast that this system will eventually track into Central America late next week. The European model forecasts that this will track inland into Belize or Guatemala next weekend. It’s interesting to note that the GFS ensemble model forecasts a track that keeps this over the water in the western Caribbean. The NOGAPS model forecasts that this system will develop into a tropical cyclone early next week and forecasts a much more north and northeastward track taking it over western Jamaica on Wednesday and then nearing eastern Cuba next Friday.
I think we should take individual track forecasts from the various models with a huge grain of salt. If you remember, many of the early model runs with Paula forecast a track that took it over Central America. In fact, the 06Z run of the GFS model which is coming out as I write this forecasts that tropical cyclone genesis may occur early next week and this run of the GFS model forecasts a track that is quite similar to the NOGAPS model. So, what should be more important is that most of the model guidance is now forecasting tropical cyclone development in the southwest Caribbean early next week.
In addition, the GFS model forecasts an upper level ridge that isn’t particularly strong overhead as this system is developing. So, if this system develops quickly, it seems more likely we will see a track that takes this northward out of the southwest Caribbean. This is exactly what we just saw with Paula with the GFS model insisting on a track that took Paula inland into Central America, when in reality it was able to develop fast enough to prevent the ridge from pushing it westward.
So, my thinking is that we wont see tropical cyclone development this weekend in the southwest Caribbean and this development will wait until Monday or at the latest Tuesday. Given the model agreement and the forecast for favorable conditions in the western and southwestern Caribbean, I think it’s fairly likely that we will see “Richard” develop in the southwest Caribbean early next week. It should be noted that a ridge of high pressure that will extend westward into Mexico is forecast to start to break down by Monday as a trough of low pressure digs into the eastern United States. So, a track like the NOGAPS model suggests may not be too far off and if this comes true, then the Cayman Islands, Jamaica and Cuba would be at risk from Richard.
So, for now, it is something to watch for over this weekend into next week and I will be monitoring this potential closely and will keep you all updated.

"The ultimate judge of your swing is the flight of the ball." - Ben Hogan

Posted on October 15, 2010 by palmharborforecastcenter
Good Friday all!TROPICAL DEPRESSION PAULA:
Tropical Storm Paula was downgraded to a depression earlier. Based on satellite loop imagery and current wind shear product from CIMSS, Paula is under some pretty strong shear, and the center has been decoupled from any convection that was associated with her.
Based on the current satellite loop imagery, and forecast steering layers maps, I agree with the NHC forecast track, in that Paula will continue east, for at least the next 18-24 hours, before high pressure that is building in to the north, forces her to take a more southerly track.
Based on wind shear, I believe she could become a remnant a little sooner than forecast, before crossing into Cuba on her southward trek. This will be my last synopsis on Paula.
Elsewhere in the Tropics, Global models are still pretty much in agreement of development in the SW Caribbean as early as the beginning of next week. In fact, surprisingly, the GFS has been showing this for the past 3-4 days, and has been very consistent with this on every run, and has done a fairly good job since mid season of forecasting cyclogenesis in the mid range.
Based on the current wind shear maps, upper level winds are not conducive at the moment. However, the current wind shear forecast maps indicates that upper level winds will become very conducive for development over the next 42-48 hours, and remain very favorable for development out to at least 120 hours in the period from the 06Z run. Based on the this, and the still very warm sst’s in the Caribbean, I do believe, if conditions do not deviate from the forecast, that we will see the development of “Richard” during next week.
I will continue to monitor the Caribbean closely over the next 96 hours.

"The ultimate judge of your swing is the flight of the ball." - Ben Hogan

Quote:New Caribbean disturbance
Heavy thunderstorm activity is currently limited over the southern Caribbean waters just north of Panama, but the latest 2am EDT (6Z) NOGAPS and GFS model runs continue to predict the formation of a tropical depression in the region 4 - 5 days from now. The storm is predicted to move northwest or northwards towards the Cayman Islands and Jamaica once it forms. The GFS model has been pretty reliable in forecasting the genesis of new tropical depressions this year, and the fact that we have two major models predicting the formation of a new Caribbean tropical depression next week is worth paying attention to.