000
FXUS63 KSGF 280310
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
910 PM CST Fri Feb 27 2015
.SHORT TERM...(Late this Afternoon through Tonight)
Issued at 313 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015
With a very active pattern expected over the next several days, we
are getting a bit of an appetizer this afternoon and this
evening. A shearing short wave trough tracking east across the
central and southern Plains has triggered an area of snow across
central and eastern Oklahoma. This precipitation has been fighting
dry air all day, but observations do indicate visibility as low
a half mile back towards the Oklahoma City metro.
The shearing nature of this wave and the dry air in place across
lower levels of the atmosphere will continue to eat away at this
snow as it tracks east and northeast into southern Missouri. We
are still expecting some pockets of light snow and flurries. A
dusting to perhaps as much as a half inch will be possible
primarily across far southwestern Missouri. Low temperatures
tonight will again be rather chilly as surface winds remain
easterly behind strong high pressure across the Ohio Valley. We
are generally looking at lower to middle teens area wide.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Friday)
Issued at 313 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015
A couple of weak upper level disturbances will then track out
across the region from Saturday into Saturday night. A broad and
persistent area of isentropic upglide will develop in the low and
middle levels of the atmosphere starting as early as Saturday
morning and continuing into Sunday. As that jet intensifies, a
large area of snow will spread from west to east across the
Missouri Ozarks during the day on Saturday. Models have trended
slightly faster with the onset of snow.
A warm nose will then work north through the Missouri Ozarks
starting as early as Saturday evening near the Arkansas
border...pushing north into central Missouri Sunday morning. This
will result in a transition to a wintry mix (snow and light
freezing rain) across the area. Surface temperatures are then
expected to warm above freezing over most areas by Sunday
afternoon which will result in all liquid.
As for accumulations, 1-3" is expected along and south of the
Interstate 44 corridor with the lowest amounts across south-
central Missouri. Areas north of the Interstate 44 corridor will
see amounts in the 3-5" range. We are also expecting a thin glaze
of ice across the region. Ice accretion amounts are generally
expected to remain at or below five-hundredths of an inch. With
all of this being said, we have hoisted a Winter Weather Advisory
from mid-morning Saturday into Sunday morning for all but far
south central Missouri.
One other potential fly in the ointment worth mentioning will be
the late Saturday night into Sunday time frame. The synoptic
scale pattern will favor a frontogenetic band of moderate to
possibly heavy snow as it becomes favorably aligned with an upper
level jet. Current thinking is that this band of snow should
remain north of the Missouri Ozarks closer to the Interstate 70
corridor. If this were to shift south, an increase in snow totals
may be warranted across central Missouri.
Precipitation should then end from northwest to southeast across the
area Sunday night as surface high pressure builds in from the north.
The lull in precipitation will be short-lived as the upper level
flow becomes increasingly southwesterly and amplifies. Precipitation
should spread back into the region from Monday night into Tuesday as
the first in a series of short wave troughs ejects out towards the
region. Strong warm air advection in the lower atmosphere should
result in mainly liquid for this system. Global models continue to
paint enough instability to maintain a mention of thunder as
moisture quickly advects north from the Gulf of Mexico. Temperatures
on Tuesday should warm well into the 50s, with some 60 degree
readings not out of the question.
Global models then continue to depict a strong surface low pressure
and trailing cold front coming through the area later Tuesday or
Tuesday night. Hydro may become a concern if we see multiple rounds
of rainfall like the models are advertising. Out that far, it is a
tough call as to when the precipitation will end behind that front.
Some models hold onto precipitation as colder air filters into the
region...which would paint a signal for wintry precipitation. Other
global models are more progressive with sweeping the precipitation
to our south before the brunt of the cold air arrives. This will be
worth watching as we head into early next week as models should have
a better handle by then.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 905 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015
For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: An area of snow has affected far sw
MO over the past few hours with IFR cat visibility common along
with IFR ceilings where the lower atmosphere could saturate
(mainly KBBG). Should see improvement if flight conditions as the
snow continues to taper off over the next few hours. Another
disturbance will bring a chance for widespread snow and ifr cat
conditions late in the taf period, mainly after 18z.
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 9 AM Saturday to Noon CST Sunday
FOR MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>096-098-101>104.
KS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 9 AM Saturday to Noon CST Sunday
FOR KSZ073-097-101.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Schaumann
LONG TERM...Schaumann
AVIATION...DSA