Raghuram hits first-ball sixer; looks set to bowl mkts over

Raghuram Rajan, RBI governor emphasised that the changes proposed may be “risky” but “as India develops, not changing is even riskier. We have to keep what is good about our system, of which there is a tremendous amount, even while acting differently where warranted.”

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Raghuram hits first-ball sixer; looks set to bowl mkts over

Raghuram Rajan, RBI governor emphasised that the changes proposed may be “risky” but “as India develops, not changing is even riskier. We have to keep what is good about our system, of which there is a tremendous amount, even while acting differently where warranted.”

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R JagannathanFirstpost.com

Raghuram Rajan has started his innings with a bang. On the very first day after taking over from Duvvuri Subbarao as Governor of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), he stamped his authority on the institution by announcing several measures to modernise and liberalise the Indian banking system even while clearing the cobwebs of the past.

The announcements, if followed up with efficient and quick execution, have the potential to rejuvenate the system and erase the sense of deafeatism that characterised the last days of Subbarao, which led to unending conflicts between the central bank and the finance ministry.

Unveiling his initial agenda for change, Rajan called for steps to internationalise the rupee, liberalise branch banking, open up banking to more entrants, reduce the pre-emption of bank resources for investment in government securities, rethink and, if possible reduce, the scope and target of mandated (or priority sector) lending, allow banks to borrow more from abroad to help reduce the current account deficit, and protect the savings of the ordinary bank customer by offering consumer price-linked inflation indexed certificates by November.

He emphasised that the changes proposed may be “risky” but “as India develops, not changing is even riskier. We have to keep what is good about our system, of which there is a tremendous amount, even while acting differently where warranted.”

In a clear signal that the recent depredations of the rupee have not reduced the central bank to defensive thinking, Rajan said that the RBI will allow exporters and importers more leeway in cancelling and rebooking forward cover, effectively rolling back some of the restrictive measures introduced recently to reduce speculation in the rupee.

Given the bitterness recently seen between North Block and Mint Street in the final year of Subbarao’s tenure, Rajan starts with a clear advantage in terms of better relations with the finance ministry, of which he was the Chief Economic Advisor from August last year. His rapport with Chidambaram will help him send a strong message of positivity for the markets.

But challenges remain. Here are some of the key implications of what Rajan said, and the tensions that he will have to negotiate in the months ahead as the economy grapples with a slowdown.

The rupee: Rajan said: “The primary role of the central bank…is monetary stability, that is, to sustain confidence in the value of the country’s money. Ultimately, this means low and stable expectations of inflation, whether that inflation stems from domestic sources or from changes in the value of the currency, from supply constraints or demand pressures.”

The implication: If Rajan wants to maintain the purchasing power of the rupee, he will have to bring inflation down. To maintain the rupee’s internal value, he may have to hold rates, if not raise them. Since he said that he will fight for the rupee even if the inflation is the result of demand or supply pressures, the hint is about a strong line on interest rates.

Liberalisation of banking: Rajan said: “The Indian public would benefit from more competition between banks, and banks would benefit from more freedom in decision-making. The RBI will shortly issue the necessary circular to completely free bank branching for domestic scheduled commercial banks in every part of the country.”

Implication: The answer will lie in the fine print. While banks may be free to set up branches anywhere everywhere, Rajan also talked about more financial inclusion. One can expect all banks to rush to set up more branches in tier-2 to tier-6 towns, and also in some metros; pushing them to rural areas will be tougher. This policy is good, but the financial inclusion bit will be tough to achieve. Given the government’s commitment to direct cash transfers, some pressures will come from the finance ministry to ensure more rural penetration.

New banks and competition: Rajan said: “The RBI will give out new bank licences as soon as consistent with the highest standards of transparency and diligence…We will not stop with these licences. We will pursue creative ideas of the RBI staff and come up with a detailed roadmap of the necessary reforms and regulations for freeing entry and making the licensing process more frequent after we get comments from stakeholders.”

Implication: Rajan clearly does not want to issue licences only in dribs and drabs. In this, he will have the full support of the finance ministry even while facing some resistance from his own staff, who are wary about freeing up entry for banks, especially new banks set up by corporates. But Rajan will probably push it through, since he is so convinced about it. Over the next three to four years, competition from banks will bring better services and push banking charges down. Currently banking is a very high margin business, especially for smart private sector banks.

Freeing bank resources: Rajan said: “Our banks have a number of obligations that pre-empt lending, and in fact, allow what Dr Rakesh Mohan, an illustrious former deputy-governor, called ‘lazy banking’. One of the mandates for the RBI…is to ensure the flow of credit to the productive sectors of the economy. In this context, we need to reduce the requirement for banks to invest in government securities in a calibrated way, to what is strictly needed from a prudential perspective.”

Implication: It is possible for the RBI to cut pre-emption in the form of minimum investments in government securities (currently 23 percent of liabilities), but he can’t do it too fast given his commitment to fund government deficits and keep rates as low as possible. If banks are free to lend less to government, the latter will pay more for money. But over time companies will find cheaper loans. There will be pressure from the finmin to go slow here.

Priority sector lending: The new governor said: “We also subject our banks to a variety of priority sector lending requirements. I believe there is a role for such a mandate in a developing country it is useful to nudge banks into areas they would otherwise not venture into. But that mandate should adjust to the needs of the economy, and should be executed in the most efficient way possible. Let us remember that the goal is greater financial access in all parts of the country, rather than meeting bureaucratic norms.”

Implication: Banks will jump with joy if this happens. But politicians are unlikely to be happy with this in an election year, especially if money to favoured sectors such as exports, agriculture and small and medium enterprises is curtailed. A committee will look into this, but it will take time to implement.