Stateline Western Australia

Green predicts a close election in WA

REBECCA CARMODY: Finally a forensic look at the state of the parties and what's likely to happen in those crucial marginal seats. Anthony Green is the ABC's election analyst and he'll be on our panel on election night identifying the trends and hopefully picking the winner well before the concession and victory speeches. I spoke to him a short time ago.

REBECCA CARMODY: Antony Green, welcome to Stateline.

ANTHONY GREEN, ABC ELECTION ANALYST: Thank you.

REBECCA CARMODY: Geoff Gallop's been pretty quick to claim underdog status. Do you regard him as the underdog here?

ANTONY GREEN: Well, if you go by the opinion polls at the moment and the Government is clearly behind - the poll in the 'West Australian' last week shows an absolute landslide to the Opposition, so on that basis it's fair for him to claim to be the underdog.

REBECCA CARMODY: Is it possible at this early stage to say how close this election is going to be?

ANTONY GREEN: Well, if those opinion polls are right, it won't even be close. It'd be a landslide. But I have my doubts that some of those opinion polls are correct. It doesn't strike me that the Government, after one term, would be that unpopular, and that it could yet be a close election.

REBECCA CARMODY: So you think that it's possible it could come down to a handful of seats then?

ANTONY GREEN: Well, all elections in the end come down to those close marginal seats.

REBECCA CARMODY: The maths of this election have been well publicised, and that is that if Labor loses four seats, it's out of office. Have you identified four seats where Labor is in real danger of losing?

ANTONY GREEN: This election will come down to two main areas - the outer suburbs of Perth. You're looking at outer suburban seats like Mindarie, Joondalup, Wanneroo, Swan Hills. The Labor Party's been doing very badly in outer suburban seats at Federal elections in recent years and that may flow through to the State election. And of course then there's that string of regional seats that Labor won surprisingly last time - you're talking about Bunbury, Mandurah, Albany, Geraldton. Any four of those seats - that's so many marginal seats - and the Government would be out of office.

REBECCA CARMODY: As an analyst are you able to say or pinpoint why the Gallop Government seems to be so unpopular?

ANTONY GREEN: It's very difficult to measure. I think it's more a sense that at the last WA election that the vote was more of a rejection of the Court government and also, at the time, the unpopularity of the Howard Government. It wasn't so much a positive vote for the Gallop Government and I think that's one of the things it's suffered from.

REBECCA CARMODY: More broadly then, what is it that's going to determine the outcome of this election?

ANTONY GREEN: It'll be decided by how the people have viewed the Gallop Government's first term in office. It may also reflect some of the current unpopularity of Labor across the country, though I still think this election will be decided on local issues rather than national issues.

REBECCA CARMODY: What about that strong One Nation vote at the last election - they were almost getting 10% of the vote and certainly a lot higher in some seats. What do you think is going to happen to that One Nation vote, where's it going to shift to?

ANTONY GREEN: At this election, for Geoff Gallop to win re-election Labor's primary vote has to go up and the source of primary vote increase will have to be people who voted for One Nation last time.

REBECCA CARMODY: Can you see enough of those One Nation voters going back to the Coalition to get it over the line?

ANTONY GREEN: That's the tough question. You're talking about half of the One Nation vote needs to go to Labor as primary votes and I'm not exactly sure that that vote will go to Labor at this election. It's a tough election for Labor to win. It can win it, but it's got to campaign well, it's got to win the campaign and it's got to avoid having other problems with basic services between now and the election.

REBECCA CARMODY: Anthony Green, what about the upper house, cause that seems to be the silent subject so far - do you think that's going to return to conservative control?

ANTONY GREEN: The only reason the Gallop Government has some measure of control in the Legislative Council with the Greens is that the Greens, by accident, won two extra seats than they should have at the last election. They won a seat in Mining and Pastoral in the agricultural district which was caused by One Nation's preference decisions. It seems extremely unlikely that that would occur again.

REBECCA CARMODY: So there's certainly the prospect then that the Coalition will gain control of both houses.

ANTONY GREEN: The Coalition could go back to having general control of both houses if it wins government. Of course they would rely upon the National Party probably in both chambers.

REBECCA CARMODY: Just briefly, Anthony, we're very low on time, but do you think that a 5-week campaign, there's enough time there for the Premier to turn things around?

ANTONY GREEN: I think the Government can turn around their opinion polls during the campaign. As I said, Colin Barnett is a new Opposition Leader, Geoff Gallop, clearly, is preferred Premier, but in the end, I don't think it's the popularity poll between the alternative premiers that will decide this election. It's a Labor Government versus the Coalition and Labor's record in government will determine who wins.

REBECCA CARMODY: OK, Anthony, thank you. We're out of time. We'll see you back in Perth on election night. Thank you.