Monthly Archives - July 2016

The 2016-2017 NFL season is here! The NFL over/under season win totals for the 2016 season are out. So are the NFL betting spreads for all 32 teams for weeks 1 to 16. Which NFL team season win totals should you bet on? What are the best NFL spreads of the season to bet on? Keep reading for a full 32 team NFL betting preview including odds, analysis and some early betting picks.

The Cardinals are hoping that number one draft pick Robert Nkemdiche can help them get to the quarterback on defense. Too often last season the secondary was hung out to dry. Pay attention to RB David Johnson. Johnson led Arizona with 13 touchdowns as a rookie. He also caught 36 passes and had a total of 1,636 yards. If he can take pressure off of Carson Palmer and the passing game and Nkemdiche comes through, Arizona could be Super Bowl bound.

In Dan Quinn’s second season, the onus will be on pressuring the quarterback. Like Arizona, Atlanta didn’t do enough on defense last season in order to disrupt opposing QBs. Someone on the offense has to step it up. The problem with the Falcons is that QB Matt Ryan depends way too much on wide receiver Julio Jones. Also, RB Devonta Freeman must prove that last season wasn’t an anomaly. If Atlanta can do that, they might surprise in the NFC South. Then again, the schedule is brutal. Okay, 6 wins is fair.

Everybody is in love with the Ravens this season. Some NFL analysts favor them to win the NFC North. Two keys: keep QB Joe Flacco from hitting the grass and health on defense. OT Ronnie Stanley, the Ravens’ first round draft pick, should help keep Flacco from getting hurt. As far as the defense goes, that’s a tough one. The best player on the defense is DE Terrell Suggs. Not only does he go into the season off of an injury, he’s getting up there in age.

Are the Bills ready to go to the playoffs? The defense should be rock solid. This is especially true since Rex Ryan got lucky when ILB Reggie Ragland fell to Buffalo in the second round of the draft. The Bills’ defense could be good enough for a playoff run. But the offense has issues. RB LeSean McCoy appeared to take a step back last season. RB Karlos Williams showed up to mini-camp overweight. QB Tyrod Taylor might be without his best weapon, Sammy Watkins. Tough to see the Bills being better than 7 and 9.

I don’t think that Josh Norman moving to Washington hurts this team all that much. The anchor on the defense is LB Luke Kuechely. He’s back. I also don’t feel that Cam Newton is the type of guy to not improve. The Panthers faced one of the best defenses in history in Super Bowl 50. If Cam improves, I think he will, it’s hard to see the Panthers not only winning the NFC South but making another possible Super Bowl run. Cam gets WR Kelvin Benjamin back. Wow.

John Fox won’t turn the Bears into a contender this season. Chicago will scare a lot of teams, though. The Bears’ defense is where Fox needs to do his magic. He could with OLB Leonard Floyd from Georgia. Floyd has the skills to be that every down disrupting LB that Fox craves. The offense took a huge step forward last season. But Chicago faces a daunting schedule. They play Houston, Philly, Dallas, Detroit, Jacksonville and Green Bay in their first 6 games. It’s hard for me to see them winning more than 2 of those games. They could lose all 6.

If Andy Dalton hadn’t gotten hurt in the AFC Playoffs last season, the Bengals may have gone to the Super Bowl. This season, both the offense and defense will be set. In particular, the offense should be money with Dalton not only throwing the football to A.J. Green but also underrated second round pick Tyler Boyd. RB Giovanni Bernard figures to be an every down back now that offensive coordinator Hue Jackson has moved on to Cleveland. This could be the Bengals’ season.

Hue Jackson is going to improve this team. The Browns could make more waves than anyone believes that they will. The problem is that they play in the ultra-competitive AFC North. The rest of the schedule isn’t a cakewalk, either. RGIII could be a decent QB while rookie WR Corey Coleman is a special player. The defense still isn’t very good. I don’t see the Browns winning more than 3 games this season…and that’s stretching it.

I question spending the 4th pick in the NFL Draft on RB Ezekiel Elliott. I have to question that. What I can’t question is Elliott’s effectiveness. Jerry Jones is making up for letting former league-leading rusher DeMarco go. Offensively, Dallas should be one of the better if not the best team in the NFL this season. QB Tony Romo and WR Dez Bryant will be healthy. Elliott has Adrian Peterson type skills but is a better pass-catcher than AP. The offensive line is the best in the league. Defensively, the Boys could flounder. They’re going to have to outscore teams to win games. Ask the Saints how well that worked out.

John Elway’s strategy paid dividends last season when Denver won the Super Bowl. The strategy is good, find a QB to run a somewhat vanilla offense and rely on a great defense. The problem that Denver is going to have this season is that the QB to run the vanilla offense will either be Mark Sanchez or Trevor Siemian. Another problem is that the vaunted defense is without DE Malik Jackson and LB Danny Trevathan. Plus, CB Aqib Talib might be suspended. But good news, Super Bowl MVP Von Miller signed. Denver goes backwards this season.

Losing WR Calvin Johnson is a huge, massive blow to the Detroit Lions’ chances of making it to the playoffs this season. The Lions’ offense had sort of become stagnant anyhow. But losing one of the best wide receivers to ever play in the NFL is disastrous. The problem for Detroit is that Megatron was QB Matthew Stafford’s security blanket. Stafford hasn’t improved as much during the years as he should have improved. I don’t see the Lions making much headway in the NFC North. Not with the very good Minnesota Vikings and Green Bay Packers in the division. Unless the defense turns into the 2016 version of the ’85 Chicago Bears, Detroit will be hard pressed to win 3 games.

The Cheeseheads were disappointed with last season’s performance. Don’t worry, Cheeseheads! Green Bay should bounce back big time in 2016. Bouncing back for Green Bay means a deep run in the playoffs and a possible Super Bowl win. QB Aaron Rodgers gets WR Jordy Nelson back. RB Eddie Lacey lost a lot of weight. The Packers beefed up their defense via the draft. There’s a lot to like about Green Bay’s chances of being one of the Super Bowl favorites from the NFC. That’s the way I see it.

I love what this team did during free agency. They went all in with QB Brock Osweiler. But instead of just signing Osweiler, they picked up the best running back on the free agent market in Lamar Miller. Then, during the draft, the Texans got WR Will Fuller from Notre Dame in Round 1. Fuller runs a 4.3 40-yard dash. He should help DeAndre Hopkins’ numbers, not hurt them. Unless Osweiler is an absolute failure, the Texans offense will be much better this season than it was last season. An improved offense to go along with one of the best defenses in the NFL means that the Texans could make it to the Lombardi Trophy game.

Like Baltimore, there are a lot of NFL Analysts picking the Colts to win their division. How much has Indianapolis improved over the other teams in the division? That’s the problem that I have with it. The problem for the Colts last season is keeping QB Andrew Luck healthy. The Colts should have better luck doing that. They drafted center Ryan Kelly and offensive tackle Le’Raven Clark this past April. Kelly and Clark won’t help the defense. That’s where my issue is. The Colts allowed 379 total yards per game last season. Opponents rushed for 122 yards per game last season. How did the Colts fix that?

I love what Jacksonville did during free agency. The Jags spent money to grab DE Malik Jackson from Denver. During the draft corner Jalen Ramsey landed in their laps. Then, the guy that everyone thought they’d draft, LB Myles Jack, they ended up getting in the second round anyhow. The offense is set. QB Blake Bortles has arguably the best WR duo in all of the NFL in Allen Hurns and Allen Robinson. The Jags also signed RB Chris Ivory away from the New York Jets. I think the Jags could win 10 games this season.

The Chiefs are the team to back to win the AFC West. Although San Diego and Oakland have improved, Kansas City should pick up right where they left off last season. WR Jeremy Maclin and TE Travis Kelce have a great relationship with QB Alex Smith. The return of Jamal Charles should only bolster a rushing attack that was just fine with Spencer Ware and Charcandrick West. Losing Sean Smith at one of the corner positions, and offensive coordinator Doug Pederson, is tough. But head coach Andy Reid is as good as it gets. He’ll have the Chiefs in a position to go to the playoffs again.

It all depends on rookie QB Jared Goff. Goff has to play well in order for Los Angeles to win football games this season. RB Todd Gurley will be counted on to anchor the offense. Since we know it, so does every single defensive coordinator and linebacker in the NFL. Gurley could have a short career if Goff doesn’t come out playing like a 3-year NFL pro right away. I don’t think it happens. I also don’t feel that the City of Los Angeles cares so much about the Rams returning. I don’t know. It could be a tough slog for a few years in Angel City for the Rams even with the tough defense.

New coach Adam Gase will make the offense much more effective than it ever has been. Gase turned Jay Cutler into a viable starting NFL quarterback when he was the offensive coordinator in Chicago. He’ll make Ryan Tannehill a decent signal-caller. But the problem that the Dolphins have is on the defensive side where the secondary is a mess. Not only that, but Ndamukong Suh hasn’t been nearly as effective in Dolphin teal as he was in Lion baby blue. I also don’t know if RB Jay Ajayi is really the answer.

At first, I was worried about the Vikings’ offensive line. Then, Minnesota made some moves to shore it up. What Minnesota also did was draft wide receiver Laquon Treadwell, one of the toughest WRs I’ve seen come out of college in a long time, to work opposite Stefon Diggs. QB Teddy Bridgewater should improve with Treadwell in the fold. The Vikings also have that guy named Adrian Peterson still. The defense is solid. Minnesota will be in the hunt for the NFC North Division.

Season Record Prediction: 10-6

New England Patriots

2015 record: 12-4 (O/U 10.5, over total by 1.5 games)2016 O/U season win total: 10.5 (over -120/under EVEN)Week 1: New England at Arizona Cardinals (-4.5)Week 2: Miami Dolphins at New England (-6)Week 3: Houston Texas at New England (-3)Week 4: Buffalo Bills at New England (-3)Week 5: New England (-7) at ClevelandWeek 6: Cincinnati Bengals at New England (-4)Week 7: New England at Pittsburgh Steelers (TBD)Week 8: New England (-3) at BuffaloWeek 9: Seattle Seahawks at New England (-2)Week 10: BYEWeek 11: New England (-11) at San Francisco 49ersWeek 12: New England Patriots (-2.5) at New York JetsWeek 13: Los Angeles Rams at New England Patriots (-9)Week 14: Baltimore Ravens at New England (-9)Week 15: New England (-1) at Denver BroncosWeek 16: New York Jets at New England (-6.5)

The odds on the Patriots winning the Super Bowl have gone all the way to 6 to 1. They’re even higher in some sportsbooks. Why? Deflategate. Can you believe that we’re still talking about that? In any case, the Patriots are going to have one of the best offenses in the NFL after Week 4. The defense may not be as good as advertised, though. For that, I do believe that the Pats take a step back. I think New England wins 11 games.

The Saints did a lot of work on its awful defense during the off-season. They signed terrific MLB James Laurinaitis. They drafted Sheldon Rankins, the top-rated defensive tackle in the draft, and safety Vonn Bell. The offense is going to be a blur. So, if the defense comes together, the Saints could be a team to reckon with in the NFC South.

Season Record Prediction: 10-6

New York Giants

2015 record: 6-10 (O/U 8, under total by 2 games)2016 O/U: 8 (over -110/under -110)Week 1: New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys (-4, 50)Week 2: New Orleans Saints at New York Giants (-4.5)Week 3: Washington Redskins at New York Giants (-3)Week 4: New York Giants at Minnesota Vikings (-6)Week 5: New York Giants at Green Bay Packers (-8)Week 6: Baltimore Ravens at New York Giants (-3)Week 7: New York Giants at Los Angeles Rams (PK)Week 8: BYEWeek 9: Philadelphia Eagles at New York Giants (-3)Week 10: Cincinnati Bengals (-2) at New York GiantsWeek 11: Chicago Bears at New York Giants (-4)Week 12: New York Giants (-3.5) at Cleveland BrownsWeek 13: New York Giants at Pittsburgh Steelers (-7.5)Week 14: Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants (-1)Week 15: Detroit Lions at New York Giants (-3)Week 16: New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles (-2.5)

It’s hard to understand why the Giants would spend so much money on corner Janorius Jenkins. Drafting safety Eli Apple helps, but the secondary might still not be up to snuff. The Giants’ offense is counting on Victor Cruz to come back healthy. Or, rookie Sterling Shepard to not play like a rookie. One thing that bothers me is that the G-Men still haven’t figured out their running back situation. I don’t see much happening with the Giants in 2016.

Season Record Prediction: 8-8

New York Jets

2015 record: 10-6 (O/U 7.5, over total by 2.5 games)2016 O/U: 8 (over +105/under -125)Week 1: Cincinnati Bengals (-1, 43) at New York JetsWeek 2: New York Jets at Buffalo Bills (-2)Week 3: New York Jets at Kansas City Chiefs (-3.5)Week 4: Seattle Seahawks (-2) at New York JetsWeek 5: New York Jets at Pittsburgh Steelers (-6)Week 6: New York Jets at Arizona Cardinals (-4)Week 7: Baltimore Ravens at New York Jets (-4)Week 8: New York Jets (-5) at ClevelandWeek 9: New York Jets at Miami Dolphins (PK)Week 10: Los Angeles Rams at New York Jets (-4)Week 11: BYEWeek 12: New England Patriots (-2.5) at New York JetsWeek 13: Indianapolis Colts at New York Jets (-2)Week 14: New York Jets at San Francisco 49ers (PK)Week 15: Miami Dolphins at New York (-5)Week 16: New York Jets at New England Patriots (-6.5)

The Jets’ front office continues to play hard ball with QB Ryan Fitzpatrick. In the words of Donald Trump in regards to Ted Cruz, “Well, he started it.” That’s true, Fitzpatrick did start it. But the Jets are living in a dream world if they believe that they can make a run to the playoffs without Fitz. They won’t be a bad team without him. They just won’t be as good. With Fitz, I think they win 10 games. Without him, the best they’ll do is 7 wins.

The Raiders have a great shot of winning the AFC West. I believe it will come down to Oakland and Kansas City. I think that KC wins the division at the end of the day, but Oakland has a good team. QB Derek Carr has the year under his belt throwing to WR Amari Cooper. Expect Carr to Cooper to be huge this season. The defense will be better with safety Karl Joseph backing up unreal linebacker DE Kahlil Mack. I can easily see this team winning 10 games this season.

At first I thought that the Eagles would be terrible in 2016. Then, I started to think about it. Philadelphia hired one of the great coaches of the NFL in Doug Pederson. Pederson is going to get more out of QB Sam Bradford than any coach has ever gotten out of him. Draft pick Wendell Smallwood is the perfect running back for Pederson’s offensive system. The defense will be better because Jim Schwartz is a great defensive coordinator. I’m not saying that Philly makes the playoffs this season. What I am saying is that they win at least 8 games.

It’s hard to see Pittsburgh’s offense not putting up at least 30 points per game. But, here’s the problem: Martavis Bryant is suspended for the season. Without Bryant, teams are going to key on Antonio Brown. That’s not necessarily a horrible thing if Le’Veon Bell is healthy. But what if Bell isn’t healthy? What happens then? I think Pittsburgh is tough, but not 12 and 4 tough. Let’s try 10 and 6 tough.

The Chargers are going to win some games this season. The key will be keeping QB Phillip Rivers healthy and putting pressure on opposing quarterbacks. So far, things haven’t worked out as planned with DE Joey Bosa. Bosa skipped the non-mandatory mini-camp. That’s not a good thing when you’re a rookie looking to impress your peers. Although San Diego will be better, they play in a tough division. I don’t see more than 9 wins.

San Francisco needs help all over the place. I do think that RB Carlos Hyde could have a big season in Chip Kelly’s offensive system. But neither Blaine Gabbert nor Colin Kaepernick is the answer at QB. I also think that defensive coordinators in the NFL are on to Kelly’s offensive system. He had better players in Philadelphia and look what happened there. The 49’ers’ defense is a mess. I don’t see SF winning more than 2 games in 2016.

This could be a watershed season for the Seattle Seahawks. The Hawks sure looked like a dynasty 2 years ago when the brilliant Russell Wilson led them to a second straight Super Bowl. Since that time, a lot of things have changed. The biggest change is along the offensive line. If the line can block, RB Thomas Rawls will fill in nicely for the retired Marshawn Lynch. But if the line can’t block, the season is going to be bad. I’m not sure if the line can block. I’m also not convinced that the defense is as good as it has been in the past after losing LB Bruce Irvin to Oakland. I think Seattle is a .500 team.

The Bucs promoted offensive coordinator Dirk Koetter to head coach. That by itself was a good move considering that Koetter is the man in charge of QB Jameis Winston’s development. If Winston gets better, and there’s no reason to believe that he won’t, the Bucs should be a much improved team in 2016. They might even have a shot at a playoff berth. I like how the defense is shaping up with Vernon Hargreaves III at corner and Noah Spence at DE. But, what was up with drafting a kicker with the 28th pick draft? That’s a sign that the front office might not be as smart as we all thought that they were. Oh, well, 8 and 8 it is.

Like Winston at Tampa, QB Marcus Mariota at Tennessee should also improve. The Titans did the right thing by drafting an offensive tackle that is better at run blocking in Jake Conklin than pass blocking. Conklin isn’t a bad pass blocker. He’s just a much better run blocker. That’s a good thing for the Titans. Mariota is going to be at his best when the Titans have a solid rushing attack. With DeMarco Murray and Heisman Trophy winner Derrick Henry carrying the football, Mariota’s progress should excel in 2016. The defense should be tough as well. I’ll give Mariota a win over Winston.

I don’t see this team taking a step back. From my POV, the DC’ers have everything in place to defend their NFC East Division Championship from this past season. QB Kirk Cousins is firmly entrenched as the starter. WR Josh Docston is the perfect complement to WR Desean Jackson. The defense could be an issue even with Josh Norman at QB. Luckily for Washington fans, no team in the NFC East has a better defense than the DC’ers.

There are certain NFL betting trends that can be used to your advantage. One of those the most popular NFL betting trends to track is known as going with sharp money. But what exactly is sharp money? And, when it comes to the NFL, what does sharp money really mean? Keep reading as I delve into NFL sharp money betting trends and how they can benefit your sports betting bankroll.

NFL Betting Sharp Money Explained

It’s true that sportsbooks don’t mind about getting 50% on both sides of a wager. If sportsbooks can do that, they can pay one side off with the bets from the other side. But this isn’t a golden rule. A lot of times, sportsbooks prefer receiving large wagers that move the line. This is true for one main reason.

There are way more public, casual, bettors than professional bettors. Something like 80% of wagers, wagers from non-professional bettors, goes to the favorite. What it means is that sharp money, money from professional bettors that move the line, often times goes to the underdog. This is true because sharp money only goes to what pro bettors see as value bets.

Think about it this way, public money can drive a line either way depending on how much of that money is bet through the sportsbook. There is no rule that says odds makers have to change the line. The reason that odds makers change lines, especially why they change lines early, is so that they can see where the sharp money is coming from.

Why is it important to know where the sharp money is coming from – Sportsbooks have records on wales, the big dogs that place large enough sharp money wagers to change a line. Let’s take an example game and analyze it for sharp money trends.

Oakland +9.5

Kansas City -9.5

Let’s say that as soon as the line open, the sportsbook starts receiving wagers on Kansas City. They receive enough wagers where they feel it’s necessary to send the line up to KC -10. At this point, a couple of things are likely to happen depending on what sharp players believe is value.

If a sharp believes that -10 on KC constitutes value, a large bet will be placed on the Chiefs. Depending on the sportsbook, the line may move. It may not. Usually, if only one sportsbook, say the sportsbook at the Bellagio, receives a huge enough wager to move the line, the other sportsbook in Vegas will move the line as well. If the line goes up to KC -10.5, I call it a sharps favorite trend.

If the sharps bet on Oakland, and the line moves down to 9.5 again, I call it a sharpdogtrend. Most of the time, this is what will happen. Think about Super Bowl 50 when the line moved all the way to Carolina -5.5 before sharp money pushed it to Carolina -3.5. There comes a point where the sportsbook has to move the line.

It’s to the sportsbook’s advantage to know where the sharp money is going. Sharps, the pros, will always be more right than the public. Sportsbooks use this knowledge to their advantage.

After a large enough sharp money bet, a sportsbook could decide to change a line so that more public money goes the other way. In this case, the sportsbook might just want to make a killing because they believe that the sharps are correct. If they don’t believe that the sharps are correct, they could change the line to work towards a 50%-50% split. Either way, knowing who the sharps like on either side of a spread bet is significant knowledge to the sportsbook.

A real important trend for sports bettors that has to do with sharp money is the follow the money trend. It comes from horse racing. There are a lot of horseplayers who wait until they see a huge move in the odds of a horse. If the odds move holds, they bet on that horse.

The same is true for sports betting. If 80% of the wagers are on the favorite, and a big money wager changes the line so that the favorite is even more of a favorite, sports bettors should wait until the last moment to make their bet. Pros are always looking for value. If the line changes by a point, say, 10 minutes before kick-off in any NFL game, casual sports bettors can rest assured that the line they get at that time is most likely a value line. Pros wait to bet after all of the dumb money has driven a line up. This is why so many line changes occur within an hour before a game starts.

Injuries play a big part in NFL betting spread movements for every single game. If a major player is injured, the line could move a half a point to a point. If that major injury occurs to the quarterback, the line could move much more than that. But how much, exactly, is an NFL starting quarterback worth to the point spread? The question is much harder to answer than many might believe.

Sure, it’s easy to come up with an answer for quarterbacks at San Francisco, Blaine Gabbert and Colin Kaepernick. Neither one of those guys being out should change a point spread more than 0 to 1 point. But what about players like Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady, Cam Newton and Drew Brees? By looking at these 4 quarterbacks, I might be able to come up with a rough answer to the question.

Analyzing The QB Stats Applied To NFL Spread Betting Tips

Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay

Rodgers is worth 6 to 7 points on the spread on his own. Rodgers played in every single game and Green Bay went 9 and 7 against the spread. The only time that Green Bay was a double-digit favorite was in 2 home games, versus San Diego and versus Detroit.

Tom Brady, New England

The Patriots went 7-7-2 against the spread last season. Brady played in every game. The Patriots were only dogs in 1 game last season. It was Week 2 versus the Buffalo Bills on the road where New England was a +2 point underdog. Brady is supposed to be worth 6 to 7 points.

Cam Newton, Carolina

The Panthers went 11-5 ATS last season with Newton playing in every regular season game. What’s interesting is that Carolina went 9 and 2 ATS before going 2 and 3 ATS in their final 5 games. Cam is supposed to be worth 6 to 7 points.

Drew Brees, New Orleans

The Saints went 8-7-1 ATS last season. Brees is supposed to be worth a 5 to 6-point line change. The Saints were only favored in 7 games last season.

The NFL QBs Who Are Worth 6-7 Points Against The Spread

PLAYER

TEAM

RECORD (ATS)

Aaron Rodgers

Green Bay Packers

78-51

Andrew Luck

Indianapolis Colts

37-23

Ben Roethlisberger

Pittsburgh Steelers

94-87

Cam Newton

Carolina Panthers

48-35

Tom Brady

New England Patriots

123-90

The NFL QBs Who Are Worth 5-6 Points Against The Spread

PLAYER

TEAM

RECORD (ATS)

Carson Palmer

Arizona Cardinals

77-82

Drew Brees

New Orleans Saints

110-94

Eli Manning

New York Giants

101-87

Joe Flacco

Baltimore Ravens

68-62

Russell Wilson

Seattle Seahawks

44-28

Tony Romo

Dallas Cowboys

63-67

The NFL QBs Who Are Worth 3-5 Points Against The Spread

PLAYER

TEAM

RECORD (ATS)

Andy Dalton

Cincinnati Bengals

44-30

Blake Bortles

Jacksonville Jaguars

13-14

Kirk Cousins

Washington Redskins

13-13

Matt Ryan

Atlanta Falcons

66-62

Matthew Stafford

Detroit Lions

39-53

Philip Rivers

San Diego Chargers

87-78

The NFL QBs Who Are Worth 2-4 Points Against The Spread

PLAYER

TEAM

RECORD (ATS)

Derek Carr

Oakland Raiders

16-16

Jameis Winston

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

7-9

Marcus Mariota

Tennessee Titans

3-8

Ryan Tannehill

Miami Dolphins

28-35

Teddy Bridgewater

Minnesota Vikings

23-6

Tyrod Taylor

Buffalo Bills

8-5

The NFL QBs Who Are Worth 1-3 Points Against The Spread

PLAYER

TEAM

RECORD (ATS)

Brock Osweiler

Houston Texans

3-4

Alex Smith

Kansas City Chiefs

68-61

Jay Cutler

Chicago Bears

54-79

The NFL QBs Who Are Worth 0-1 Points Against The Spread

TEAM

STARTER

BACKUP

Cleveland Browns

Josh McCown

Robert Griffin III

Denver Broncos

Mark Sanchez

Trevor Siemian

Los Angeles Rams

Case Keenum

Jared Goff

New York Jets

Geno Smith

Ryan Fitzpatrick?

Philadelphia Eagles

Sam Bradford

Chase Daniel

San Francisco 49ers

Blaine Gabbert

Colin Kaepernick

One thing I know for sure is that when it comes to NFL spread betting, QB stats do mean something. For example, Green Bay, New England and Carolina all made the playoffs last season. Once odds makers got wind that Cam Newton and Carolina were tearing it up ATS, they started making Cam and the Panthers cover larger and larger spreads.

Then again, all 3 of those teams are good teams. A bad team, New Orleans, with a great QB in Drew Brees went 8-7-1 ATS. What it comes down to, I think, is continuing to look for value. Carolina may be a value play at -3 in one game with Cam Newton out. Or, they might be a non-value play at -6 against a bad team like the Cleveland Browns with Cam Newton in.

I definitely believe that odds makers take into account the quarterback for each team in every single NFL game. But, I think that most of what odds makers are thinking about has to do with perception. Odds makers know that pro bettors will only make value wagers. So, if the public perception, as an example, is that the Patriots will be great because of Tom Brady, odds makers might create a line that has the Patriots as bigger favorites than they normally would be. Odds makers, like all of us, know that 80% of betting money goes on the favorites. Why risk that by over thinking it? Brady and the Patriots are a popular favorite.

There are some cool tips that we can gather from all of this. First, realize that the public is going to bet on popular teams with popular quarterbacks. Odds makers know this. That’s why popular teams with popular quarterbacks often times don’t offer value. Second, the public is almost always going to lean towards betting on favorites. Third, if you want to make money like a pro sports bettor, you have to think like one. Wait until some of the public money has been bet on the favorite before deciding if the line is a value play on the dog or the favorite ATS.