Time of flight measurements (TOF) over the radio link between Uppsala (Tx: 59.9°N, 17.6°E) and Bruntingthorpe (Rx: 52.5°N, 1.1°W) have been performed every 2 min at six frequencies (4.637, 6.954, 8.008, 10.391, 11.118, and 14.364 MHz) during the period November 2006–January 2008. Such measurements have been compared with the TOF provided by three prediction methods that approximate the ray tracing technique: IRI-95, SIRM&BR_D, and ICEPAC. The root mean square deviation (rms) between TOF monthly median measurements and TOF monthly median predictions and the differences (DP) between the length of the median and predicted ray path have been calculated. The results, which are presented in terms of rms and DP for different seasons and different time periods, have indicated that the approximate methods are inadequate and that for more accurate predictions ray tracing techniques should be applied.

This is the author's final draft of the paper published as Advances in Space Research, 2009, 44 (1), pp. 64-71. The final version is available from http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/journal/02731177. Doi: 10.1016/j.asr.2009.03.007