Home prices stagnate, but is housing in any trouble?

Home prices fall slightly, but up for the year

According to the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index released today, American home prices fell in December for the second consecutive month, but only by 0.01 percent compared to November after a similar decline the month prior. Home prices year-over-year across all nine U.S. Census divisions rose 11.3 percent, pointing to a rough winter, but overall, an improving sector.

David M. Blitzer, Chairman of the Index Committee at S&P Dow Jones Indices, said the Index ended its best year since 2005, “However, gains are slowing from month-to-month and the strongest part of the recovery in home values may be over. Year-over-year values for the two monthly Composites weakened and the quarterly National Index barely improved.”

Zillow Chief Economist Dr. Stan Humphries said in a statement, “December capped an undeniably great year in housing in 2013, though it definitely was not as strong as today’s Case-Shiller data indicates. Less distorted indices show national appreciation ending the year at roughly half the rate today’s data shows, which is still nothing to sneeze at.”

Dr. Humphries added, “But toward the end of the year, the market’s robust bounce off the bottom began to inevitably tail off, and that slowing momentum has carried over into the beginning of this year. After a long winter, the market is gearing up for a spring home shopping season that should be a bit smoother for buyers, with less investor competition and marginally more inventory. Looking further ahead, the market should continue its slow march back to normal, as annual appreciation rates fall to more sustainable levels around 3 percent, mortgage interest rates climb to levels closer to historic norms and negative equity continues to recede.”

Case-Shiller on track with other indices

The slip in home prices for December was more like stagnation than a decline, and it matches similar indices reporting a slow down, including the National Association of Realtors’ Existing Home Sales report, showing a dip in sales.

Average home prices nationally are back at mid-2004 levels, but they are still roughly 20 percent off of their peak in 2006. The top three performing cities of 2013 year-over-year were Las Vegas (25.5 percent), followed by Los Angeles (20.3 percent) and San Francisco (22.6 percent) – way to go, West Coast! Meanwhile, most of the Sun Belt experienced lower year-over-year rates in December than in November.

“Recent economic reports suggest a bleaker picture for housing,” Blitzer noted. “Some of the weakness reflects the cold
weather in much of the country. However, higher home prices and mortgage rates are taking a toll on affordability. Mortgage default rates, as shown by the S&P/Experian Consumer Credit Default Index, are back to their pre-crisis levels but bank lending standards remain strict.”

Tara Steele is the News Director at The American Genius, covering entrepreneur, real estate, technology news and everything in between. If you'd like to reach Tara with a question, comment, press release or hot news tip, simply click the link below.

Austin tops the list of best places to buy a home

Looking at the bigger picture

(REALUOSO.COM) – Let us first express that although we are completely biased about Texas (we’re headquartered here, I personally grew up here), the data is not – Texas is the best. That’s a scientific fact. There’s a running joke in Austin that if there is a list of “best places to [anything],” we’re on it, and the joke causes eye rolls instead of humility (we’re sore winners and sore losers in this town).

That said, SelfStorage.com dug into the data and determined that the top 12 places to buy a home are currently Texas and North Carolina (and Portland, I guess you’re okay too or whatever).

They examined the nerdiest of numbers from the compound annual growth rate in inflation-adjusted GDP to cost premium, affordability, taxes, job growth, and housing availability.

“Buying a house is a big decision and a big commitment,” the company notes. “Although U.S. home prices have risen in the long term, the last decade has shown that path is sometimes full of twists, turns, dizzying heights and steep, abrupt falls. Today, home prices are stabilizing and increasing in most areas of the U.S.”

The average home age is higher than ever

(REALUOSO.COM) – In a survey from the Department of Housing and Urban Development American Housing Survey (AHS), the median age of homes in the United States was 35 years old. In Texas, homes are a bit younger with the median age between 19 – 29 years. The northeast has the oldest homes, with the median age between 50 – 61 years. In 1985, the median age of a home was only 23 years.

With more houses around 40 years old, the National Association of Realtors asserts that homeowners will have to undertake remodeling and renovation projects before selling unless the home is sold as-is, in which case the buyer will be responsible to update their new residence. Even homeowners who aren’t selling will need to consider remodeling for structural and aesthetic reasons.

Prices of new homes on the rise

Newer homes cost more than they used to. The price differential between new homes and older homes has increased from 10 percent traditionally to around 37 percent in 2014. This is due to rising construction costs, scarcity of lots, and a low inventory of new homes that doesn’t meet the demand.

Are Realtors the real loser in the fight between Zillow Group and Move, Inc.?

Why Realtors are vulnerable to these rapid changes

(REALUOSO.COM) – Corporate warfare demands headlines in every industry, but in the real estate tech sector, a storm has been brewing for years, which in the last year has come to a head. Zillow Group and Move, Inc. (which is owned by News Corp. and operates ListHub, Realtor.com, TopProducer, and other brands) have been competing for a decade now, and the race has appeared to be an aggressive yet polite boxing match. Last year, the gloves came off, and now, they’ve drawn swords and appear to want blood.

Note: We’ll let you decide which company plays which role in the image above.

So how then, does any of this make Realtors the victims of this sword fight? Let’s get everyone up to speed, and then we’ll discuss.

Salt was added to the wound when Move awarded Samuelson’s job to Move veteran, Curt Beardsley, who days after Samuelson left, also defected to Zillow. This too led to a lawsuit, with allegations including breach of contract, violation of corporations code, illegal dumping of stocks, and Move has sought restitution. These charges are extremely serious, but demanded slightly less attention than the ongoing lawsuit against Samuelson.