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2015 Copper River Projections

ADF&G King projections:

The 2015 total run forecast point estimate of 35,500 is ~28,800 less than the 16-year average total run size (1999–2014 average = 64,400). If realized, the 2015 forecast total run would rank 33 of the 36 annual runs since 1980.

The 2015 total run forecast (3.19 million) is similar to the recent 4-year average total run (3.18 million). If realized, the 2015 forecast total run would be the 5th largest in the last 36 years (since 1980). The 2.75 million natural run would be similar to the recent 4-year average (2.68 million), and a 0.45 million Gulkana Hatchery run would be below the recent 4-year average (0.49 million). The natural run forecast is driven by the large 4-year-old (age-1.2) fish estimate in 2014 (696,000; largest since 1965) and the subsequent prediction for 5-year-old (age-1.3) fish in 2015. There have been 8 additional years with run estimates of age-1.2 fish greater than ~400,000. The return of age-1.3 fish the following year has been significantly larger than expected in 5 of the 8 years. The enhanced run forecast is driven by moderate smolt outmigration numbers from both Crosswind and Summit lakes that have had good survivals in recent years. Returns of salmon that entered the ocean in 2012 have had excellent survival so far, but the significantly warmer North Pacific waters in 2014 will increase the uncertainty in the 2015 run projection. However, the main factor in the uncertainty of this forecast is that the number of age 1.2 fish used as input to the model to predict the age-1.3 return is outside the range of our historical data.