California: A voter lab for pols, polls and pundits

CHRISTOPHER MATTHEWS, CHIEF OF THE EXAMINER'S WASHINGTON BUREAU

Published 4:00 am, Sunday, June 14, 1998

1998-06-14 04:00:00 PDT CALIFORNIA -- TO POLITICAL America, California is a giant focus group. When voters of the Golden State speak, as they did in the big June 2 primary, pundits and professionals listen.

What would count was the count itself: The bigger the wad, the bigger the TV ad buy; the bigger the buy, the bigger the vote.

Fortunately for our collective morale, it didn't turn out that way. Californians will take part this November in a contest that money couldn't buy - an evenly matched struggle between a classic Democrat and a classic Republican.

Whoever wins becomes not just the largest state's governor but the electoral '98 poster boy.

If it's Democrat Gray Davis, 55, his victory will be heralded as a boisterous endorsement of President Clinton and a boost for Al Gore in 2000. It will become the rallying banner for Democrats nationwide, vivid evidence that a rising economic tide carries all boats, that Bill Clinton's personal business is his alone.

If it's Republican Dan Lungren, 51, he will share the national stage with the Fabulous Bush Boys, George and Jeb, governors of Texas and Florida respectively. Before he even accepts victory, the national press will be mentioning the Notre Dame grad as George's likely vice presidential running mate in 2000.

Each outcome will produce a new message as well as a new California governor. Democrats will celebrate a Davis win as a victory for a stronger commitment to public education and other social priorities. Republicans will cheer a Lungren win as proof that the sunny self-reliance of Ronald Reagan still shines in the West.

Fighters in the abortion wars will also have a say: If Davis breaks the 16-year GOP hold on Sacramento, supporters of abortion rights will demand the decisive credit; if Lungren holds on to win, the religious right will claim bragging rights.

The results of the '98 California governor's race are less predictable than what will be said of it.

Davis will win if he energizes the Democratic base: labor, committed Democrats, African Americans, Latinos, feminists. To do that, he will stir fears that a Lungren victory will threaten a parent's chance at quality public education, a woman's right to an abortion, an immigrant family's access to health and social services, a minority kid's chance to get ahead.

Lungren will win by aping the two-step campaign another Republican candidate used last fall to win the Virginia governorship. He will make a vote for him a vote to abolish the vehicle license tax. He will target his "pro-life" cause to the case for parental consent, which sells in the polls, and the evils of late-term abortion.

Again, gender will be a decisive factor. Lungren needs to excite the male voter on those issues, especially taxes, that motivate him while not raising the heat level on the issue of abortion, which could drive many women away.

"Davis will attempt to raise its salience," says pollster Mark Camillo. "Lungren could say that parental consent is the issue. The side that controls the agenda, decides which issue becomes salient, usually wins. It will be interesting to see how the issue of abortion is framed."