Regional planners cut job, housing projections in Marin

When it comes to regional planning, it apparently pays to be the squeaky wheel.

After Marin officials questioned what they said were inflated figures, regional planners have cut the county's projected job growth by more than 40 percent in the latest draft of 30-year Bay Area growth plan. And three communities — Novato, Corte Madera and Larkspur — saw dramatic cuts to their housing figures after raising similar objections earlier this year.

The figures were released Friday by the Association of Bay Area Governments, an agency that is helping to coordinate the 30-year planning process known as One Bay Area.

"It is constantly getting more and more accurate though this consultative process, this collaborative process," said Ezra Rapport, executive director for the agency known as ABAG, which is leading One Bay Area together with the Metropolitan Transportation Commission.

Under a state mandate to cut greenhouse gas emissions through land use, the two agencies are developing a plan to concentrate development near transit and jobs. Communities that plan for denser development could be rewarded with more transportation funding, and the One Bay Area process also will be linked to state housing mandates.

A preliminary report released in August 2011 projected an increase of about 32,000 to 36,000 jobs in Marin over 30 years, figures Transportation Authority of Marin Chairwoman Alice Fredericks called "inflated" in a letter to Rapport in January.

The county's chief planner, Brian Crawford, drew a similar conclusion in a separate letter in February.

In the latest draft, Marin's job growth was cut dramatically, to about 19,000 jobs, despite an increase in the Bay Area-wide figure from 995,000 jobs to 1.2 million jobs.

Rapport said much of Marin's reduction resulted from a newer methodology that accounted for the presence of growth industries.

"Areas where economy growth is going to occur generally in the Bay Area are not present in Marin," Rapport said.

In the new draft, Marin's countywide housing projections were roughly unchanged from the previous figures. But within the county, several cities and towns that criticized the earlier numbers — such as Larkspur, Novato, and Corte Madera — saw dramatic drops, while many others had increases.

In Novato, for example, 30-year housing growth was cut by nearly half, from about 1,600 households in August 2011 to about 900 in the new draft.

"I'm really appreciative that ABAG did hear from the city as well as the community," Novato Councilwoman Pat Eklund said, adding she was only "cautiously optimistic" because the numbers may change again, and that she still questions many of the details of the plan.

In Corte Madera, ABAG cut the housing projection by nearly 50 percent to 270 units after the city criticized earlier figures, but Councilwoman Diane Furst had little to praise about the new draft. Frustrated with mandates that helped pave the way for a planned 180 apartments at the former WinCup plant, Furst and her colleagues recently voted unanimously to end the town's ABAG membership, effective July 2013.

"My question for ABAG is, 'Why are these numbers so much different?" Furst wrote of the latest figures. "While these new numbers may be more realistic for Corte Madera, some of our neighbors saw dramatic increases."

In Ross, where officials did not contact ABAG, the 30-year housing growth projection nearly doubled, from 70 households to 130.

"I'm willing to take one for the team and take some of the units," Ross Senior Planner Elise Semonian said.

But actually building the units in the 1.6-square-mile town, where one-acre lots have fetched as much as $10 million, is not likely, she said.

"The units just won't realistically be developed here," Semonian said.

ABAG will consult with local planners and a new draft plan will be released in May, after which city councils will be asked for comments, Rapport said.