One of the Prime Minister’s first moves has been to reclaim from
Julia Gillard
the leader’s traditional prerogative of being the only person in the game who knows the election date.

Keeping everyone guessing until the last minute is a long-standing strategic tool for wrong-footing opposition ­campaign teams and keeping their logistical preparations on tenterhooks.

Kevin Rudd
, who has signalled he may not stick to Ms Gillard’s September 14 date, is weighing up whether to seize the advantage from any potential poll bounce and go earlier than that date, or delay an election as late as possible to build his political momentum.

His choices cover the 18 Saturdays between August 3 and November 30, the latest date an election can be held.

Kevin Rudd has good memories of a late November election, having defeated John Howard in one in 2007. But this time he needs to decide the date, and the risks of waiting are greater.
Photo: AP

But five big factors mean the real range of options available to Mr Rudd is far narrower. Those considerations are the local government referendum; the Group of 20 leaders summit in Russia; Jewish Yom Kippur; the AFL grand final; and the prospect of forcing MPs back to federal Parliament before the election.

The first issue, that of a local government referendum, dictates that an election would most likely fall no earlier than September 14. Legislation for the referendum was passed on Monday, and the constitution requires that a vote cannot be held until two months after that date – at first glance, clearing the way for an August 24 vote.

September 14 still the earliest realistic date

However, the Electoral Commission has advice from the Solicitor-General that means a joint referendum and general election require an extra 18 days – in addition to the two months – to allow for pre-polling. That pushes the vote to September 14.

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Of course, Mr Rudd could opt to junk or delay the referendum and go as early as August 3 – which would require him to call on the Governor-General no later than Monday to issue the writs. Most strategists argue such a move is highly unlikely given Mr Rudd is still embroiled in the task of appointing staff and rebuilding his administration.

The Prime Minister on Thursday noted other considerations that may push the date beyond September 14. These include Yom Kippur, the holiest day on the Jewish calendar, which clashes with Ms Gillard’s date, and the G20 meetings on September 5 and 6.

Like John Howard in 2007, when he chose to delay an election until November 24 to host a summit of the Asia-Pacific Economic Co-operation forum in Sydney, Mr Rudd is likely to be very eager to attend the meeting in Russia.

In that case, September 21 might be his preferred choice – not least because it falls before the September 28 AFL grand final and the October long weekend when the ARL final is held. But being in Russia would mean a disruptive and risky few days away as the campaign entered its final stretch.

Risks and rewards of delaying beyond September

An election later than September 21 would force Mr Rudd to either return to Parliament in the second half of August, or have it prorogued.

Mr Rudd may choose to delay an election until as late as possible, into late October or November, to maximise the opportunity to rebuild Labor’s case for re-election. But this risks enraging the business community, which Mr Rudd has pledged to work with, and would shatter widespread community expectations created by Ms Gillard for a mid-September vote.

It could also be unpopular with some MPs, particularly in the opposition, who would be suspicious about what legislation he would try to squeeze through before an election without a new mandate. Mr Rudd would need to weigh the benefits such legislation would bring him at the polls against providing the Coalition and business with ammunition to attack him for failing to provide certainty.