The chart above demonstrate that CFA registrations are continuing to decline, but recently TICA's growth is starting to compensate, stabilizing the total number of US kitten registrations. ACFA registrations account for a small percentage of US kitten registrations. The cat fancy in England, in contrast, appears to be keeping fairly stable in numbers. Within a few years, if current trends continue, CFA will have to relinquish its title of "The World's Largest Registry of Pedigreed Cats" to GCCF.

Could looking into the breed distribution of kitten registration in different cat registries help us identify what is behind these trends?

Which Breeds Dominate?

To get an idea of which breeds dominate in each registry, we will look at the breed breakdown for each to try to determine which breeds contribute most to the size and growth of the registry.

For the purpose of this comparison, Persian+ includes Persians, Himalayans and Exotics. Oriental+ includes Orientals Shorthairs, Siamese, and Colorpoint Shorthairs.

The chart below was constructed by including the top ten breeds in CFA, looking at the statistics for these breeds in the other registries, and then adding a selection of other significant breeds for the other associations.

So... does the fact that different breeds dominate in different registries explain the differences in their yearly registrations? Lets look closer at the breakdown of registrations by breed for the year 2004 - the last year for which we have statistics for each registry.

CFA

In CFA, Persians represent 50% of registrations, with the next most popular breed, the Maine Coon, lagging far behind at only 10%.

Selected CFA Breeds

Breeds/Year

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

Persian/Exotic

27618

25683

24425

23151

21014

Maine Coon

4599

4485

4604

4385

4162

Siamese

2131

1986

2036

1921

1621

Oriental

1085

988

1016

952

854

Abyssinian

1683

1609

1507

1417

1462

Birman

998

878

954

1057

945

American SH

885

968

874

874

846

Tonkinese

998

878

874

864

717

Burmese

846

933

839

772

667

Ragdoll

-

-

761

765

981

Cornish Rex

-

-

771

726

715

Scottish Fold

-

-

785

723

580

NFC

-

-

656

681

592

Sphynx

-

-

120

430

568

Total of top ten breeds

40843

38408

37129

35393

32288

All Others

8708

8727

9414

9381

9318

CFA's registrations rely heavily on a single breed, the Persian.

The decline in popularity of this breed has had a drastic effect on overall registrations in this association.

Although a single genetic disease prevalent in the breed, polycystic kidney disease, has taken a great deal of the blame, I feel that this attribution is unwarranted, as the precipitous decline pre-dates widespread testing, especially at the level of the casual breeder.

A more probable reason for this decline is that the high maintenance of this breed does not fit in well with the increasingly busy and stressful lifestyle of the 21st century

Although most CFA breeds are experiencing a decline in numbers, the Ragdoll and the Sphynx stand out as breeds that are both significant in number and experiencing a rise in popularity.

The Abyssinian also appears to be potentially recovering from an earlier trend towards declining numbers.

GCCF

In contrast, the diversity of GCCF's registrations leaves their registry in a much stronger position for the future.

A decline in popularity of their largest breed (the British Shorthair) would only affect 20% of their registrations, with the next most popular breed, the Oriental/Siamese family at 16%.

Other breeds remain prominent, such as the Persian (14%) and Bengal (9%).

Top GCCF Breeds

Breeds/Years

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

British Shorthair

4705

5380

5365

6057

6602

Siamese

3788

3946

3546

3985

4240

Persian

5463

5067

4264

3908

3625

Bengal

1699

1942

2126

2384

2926

Burmese

2737

2655

2624

2591

2525

Birman

2101

2223

1958

2023

2006

Maine Coon

1251

1382

1392

1729

1985

Ragdoll

1462

1398

1608

1376

1635

Exotic

652

793

815

983

1152

Oriental

1223

1310

1241

1300

1149

NFC

257

312

388

938

1071

TICA

TICA's level of diversity falls between that of CFA and GCCF, with Bengals representing 26% of their registrations, Ragdolls 23%, then falling off to a position similar to CFA's level of diversity. Diversification of breeds allows a registry to handle unpredictable changes in popularity without significant fluctuations in its income level.

The decline in popularity of the Persian is also reflected in TICA's numbers, but other breeds are experiencing significant levels of growth which compensate for this loss, in particular the Bengal and Ragdoll breeds.

The popularity of Ragdolls in TICA is most probably due to the fact that they allow all Ragdoll colors to be shown, unlike CFA which limits the colors in which this breed can be shown. Surprisingly, however, CFA's acceptance of all the Tonkinese colors for show purposes has not resulted in an increased popularity of that breed.

Selected TICA Breeds

Breed/Year

2001

2002

2003

2004

Bengal

3835

4347

4530

4766

Ragdoll

3223

3571

4044

4234

Maine Coon

1971

1936

2000

1973

Sphynx

669

685

812

882

Persian+

1043

837

778

798

Oriental+

415

386

391

423

Siberian

294

352

381

474

NFC

403

470

492

449

Pixie-Bob

395

421

379

401

Munchkin

413

363

307

362

Abyssinian

252

278

275

319

In Conclusion

In conclusion, CFA's precipitous decline in registrations is due to the overwhelming dominance of a single breed in this registry, one which is declining in popularity. Support of a more diversified array of breeds, such as that seen in GCCF, would better allow an association to weather the waxing and waning of breed popularity with breeders and the public. TICA's acceptance of newer and increasingly popular breeds is contributing to their growth, in contrast to CFA's decline in registrations. GCCF's diversity in breed popularity seems to be contributing to their overall strength and stability.

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