Good morning, POLITICO Pro Morning Energy readers. Mixed feelings around the world about Pope Francis’s call for a climate change revolution. Meanwhile, the European Commission looks at what ails the refinery industry, one Russian oligarch bets the sun will shine, and Energy Sustainability Week gets underway — where we hear participants are in for a lively discussion in the opening event.

— WHAT’S HAPPENING

A LEAK IN THE VATICAN: Pope Francis’s widely-awaited encyclical on climate change is out three days early, leaked by Italy’s L’Espresso yesterday. Sara and her Italian compatriot Jacopo Barigazzi had a read of the 192-page document. “We know that the technology based on very polluting fossil fuels — especially coal, but also oil and, to a lesser extent, gas — must be progressively and without delay replaced,” it says. “Waiting for a full development of renewable energies that should have already started, it is justified to pursue the lesser evil or to turn to temporary solutions. However the international community has not reached suitable deals on the responsibilities of those who should bear the higher costs of the energy transition.” Cutting fossil fuels and carbon emissions is therefore “urgent and pressing,” it adds. Here’s the document: http://bit.ly/1HLBCcy, and Jacopo’s article: http://politi.co/1fdyISG.

— IS COAL REALLY THAT EVIL? Poland is one of Europe’s most Catholic countries, but also one of its leading coal users. That is creating an economic and spiritual dilemma as the country digests the Pope’s anti-coal message. One paper dubs the encyclical “anti-Polish.” Here’s the take (in Polish) at Rzeczpospolita: http://bit.ly/1L9QOCb while otherwise religious Republicans in the U.S. aren’t much keener, says the Guardian: http://bit.ly/1IaKjsJ

MAKE HASTE, WORLD: Time is running out to prepare for the global climate talks in Paris, Latvia’s Environment Minister Kaspar Gerhards said yesterday in Luxembourg. Strictly counting, there are only 10 days of negotiations left. EU ministers want to see a binding agreement for the December summit that ensures global warming is limited to less than 2 degrees Celsius.

DON’T PUT OFF TO SEPTEMBER WHAT YOU CAN DO TODAY: Especially when it comes to reforming the EU’s oversupplied emission trading scheme (ETS), three groups have said in a letter to the bloc’s climate chief Miguel Arias Cañete. The reform is a “pillar” in the EU’s plan to cut emissions and decarbonize the global economy, they say, urging the commissioner to put forward a plan before the summer (following rumors it could be delayed till autumn). The groups are the Prince of Wales’s Corporate Leaders Group, Eurelectric and the International Emissions Trading Association. In case you missed it, here’s a look and what to expect from the ETS reform: http://politi.co/1GnCH8e.

AUGUST IT IS: Arias Cañete gets the message. Following today’s environment ministers’ meeting he said: “Now we will focus on the upcoming proposal of the ETS revision and the commission is working very hard to have the ETS proposal before the summer break.”

ON THE RIGHT TRACK, WITH EMISSIONS: The EU’s CO2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion fell by 5 percent in 2014, compared with 2013, according to Eurostat. Maroš Šefčovič, vice president of the energy union, and Arias Cañete were thrilled, and keen to get the message across that it is possible to decouple emissions from economic growth. “So yes, you can grow while protecting the climate,” Arias Cañete tweeted, pointing out that GDP was up by 1.3 percent in 2014. Get the report here: http://bit.ly/1FiOb91.

— SAVE THE PLANET, CONTINUE GROWING: The EU’s emissions stats coincided with Monday’s publication of the International Energy Agency’s special report on energy and climate change according to which a peak in global energy-related emissions is possible as early as 2020 at no net economic cost. It also found that the link between economic growth and emissions is weakening significantly. If you missed its launch in London, you’ll have a chance today at the launch of the Commission’s sustainable energy week. Read the report: http://bit.ly/1GInK3N, and Kalina’s story on the report’s finding that saving the planet doesn’t have to break the bank: http://politi.co/1FXiXWs.

I DREAMED A DREAM (OF SOARING SOLAR): Fifty percent of global power generation by 2050, with investments to the tune of $14 trillion. That’s the ‘dream scenario’ German bank UBS lays out in a report on how far solar energy could soar in the next 35 years. In that picture, there would be no limit to the number of silicon-based solar panels around the world, although there could be on thin-film modules. And it would cost taxpayers nothing, because subsidies would be phased out from 2025, after peaking at €70 billion. Clean Technica explains: http://bit.ly/1TnJ7e9.

SUB-ZERO POWER PRICES: In the UK, by 2020, thanks to solar and wind. That’s according to the National Grid, which says that as renewables in the country are set to soar, its electricity prices may slip below zero. Germany and Nordic countries already enjoy negative prices at times when supply outstrips demand. To avoid wasting energy generation, National Grid says the UK’s biggest users should reduce their consumption during peak hours and instead take advantage when green power surges. Bloomberg has the story: http://bloom.bg/1C8emze.

THE SUN SHINES IN RUSSIA TOO: At least that’s what Russian oligarch Viktor Vekselberg is betting on. He’s investing some 22.5 billion rubles (€364 million) to build solar energy projects in the country between now and 2018. The schemes are being developed by the Hevel Solor, a joint venture between Vekselberg’s conglomerate Renova and state-run nanotechnology group Rusnano. The idea isn’t to compete with oil and gas in Russia, but to take advantage of the country’s sunniest areas (such as in the south, near the border with Kazakhstan). More from Clean Technica: http://bit.ly/1KS6l8I.

EUROPE’S SICK MAN GETS A FITNESS CHECK: The sick man would be the bloc’s refining industry, which is struggling to remain competitive in Europe while being burdened with carbon pricing and gasoline taxes, the industry says. All the while, Americans are reaping the benefits of a shale bonanza, and Middle Easterners and Asians are boosted by subsidies. The European Commission’s Joint Research Center on Monday gave a sneak peek of the refining industry fitness check it has carried out over the last two years. The findings? Yes, overall, European regulations cost — about $0.50 per barrel, to be exact. The full report should be out in a few days.

— DEPENDS HOW YOU LOOK AT IT: That cost is not sole source of the European industry’s troubles, and refineries with higher margins can “easily” absorb it, said Jesus Barreiro-Hurle, from the Commission’s DG Grow. The industry, however, sees it as more than a negligible cost. “Overall I would say that even half a dollar per barrel is quite significant for a business that in recent years has had some $2-3 per barrel margins,” Gianni Murano, CEO of ExxonMobil subsidiary Esso Italia, tells POLITICO. “When you have high margins, OK, half a dollar may be absorbed by the industry, but especially now, when up to the end of 2013 and 2014 refining margins were very, very low, half a dollar had a substantial impact on the competitiveness of refining in Europe.”

— GOODBYE EUROPE: The global refining industry’s capacity is expected to grow by 6.4 million barrels per day by 2020, but the lion’s share will be outside the OECD, said Barreiro-Hurle. At the same time, products such as biofuels and LPGs are now bypassing refineries on their way to market, leaving the facilities with an overcapacity of 3 million b/d last year, which is likely to reach 5 m/d in 2020, he added.”So a lot of capacity, as a result, is likely to be at risk of closure and most of the threatened plans will be in Europe.”

SLEEPING MONSTER (OFFSHORE ISRAEL): Israel’s offshore Leviathan gas field was once hailed as a savior for the country, providing a source for domestic energy and LNG export revenues. But the need for a brand new regulatory framework has gotten in the way, and controversial policies such as a 40 percent limit on the gas that can be exported, has put its viability into doubt. Natural Gas Europe gives an overview: http://bit.ly/1MWaibF.

WIN SOME, LOSE SOME (IN UK FRACKING): The Lancashire County Council has recommended that the UK’s Cuadrilla get planning approval for fracking at its Preston New Road shale gas project, but not at Roseacre Wood. Despite this, Greenpeace believes there is enough evidence on the damage fracking could to do water supply and air quality to convince Lancashire councillors to reject both projects when they decide next week. Here’s Cuadrilla’s statement: http://bit.ly/1G7df3r, and more from The FT (beyond the paywall): http://on.ft.com/1QyHrQ6.

— WHAT THE FRACK HAPPENED IN POLAND? Shale was supposed to turn Poland into a new Norway. It didn’t work out like that thanks to a difficult geology, terrible regulations and low prices. Andrew Kureth dissects what went wrong: http://politi.co/1Ga6xtt.

— WHAT’S COMING

MORE RENEWABLES: According to Greens MEP Claude Turmes, the Commission is six months behind its own schedule, but today sees the bloc’s executive presenting its renewable energy progress report, a mid-term check list of who’s doing well and who’s doing badly in implementing the 2020 binding 20 percent renewable energy target. Arias Cañete will present the findings that the EU is on track to meet the target during Sustainable Energy Week’s launch event. In short, the bloc is doing pretty well, with 26 percent of the EU’s power being already generated from renewables and final energy consumption in 2014 having a projected share of 15.3 percent of renewable energy. While some countries have gone as far as exceeding their interim targets, some are lagging behind. Luxembourg, Netherlands and the UK, here’s looking at you. Read the report here: http://bit.ly/1GobqCG.

ON THE ROAD WITH MAROŠ: The energy union tour continues to Hungary today, after a visit to Slovakia Monday. Šefčovič will meet with Prime Minister Viktor Orbán and sit in on a meeting with the Hungarian National Assembly’s European Affairs, Economic Affairs and Sustainable Development committees.

BIG WEEK (FOR SUSTAINABLE ENERGY): Energy Sustainability Week kicks off with a keynote speech from Arias Cañete today, and runs until Thursday. The focus is clearly on energy efficiency, and today’s agenda includes a presentation of the International Energy Agency’s (IEA’s) special report on energy and climate (released yesterday), as well as a look at the difficulty of integrating Europe’s energy system and an award ceremony for renewable energy, energy efficiency and cities, and communities and regions. Here’s the program: http://bit.ly/1BdxO2z.

PARIS ON THE AGENDA: The EP also has something to say about Paris. That’s why the Environment Committee will today consider its draft report, “Towards a new international climate agreement in Paris.” Gilles Pargneaux (French, S&D group), the EP’s rapporteur on the file, calls for an EU 50 percent GHG emission reduction target, a 45 percent target for renewable energies and a 40 percent energy efficiency target by 2030 in comparison to 1990.

**A message from FuelsEurope: EU Refining is an important contributor to Europe’s Energy Security The European refining industry plays essential roles in transport and the downstream value chain including the petrochemical industry. Refined oil products supply 90% of the energy used for transport in the EU and close to 70% of the feedstock for the petrochemical industry. These are vital components of the European economy, and a healthy domestic refining sector is therefore indispensable for European energy security in an era of geopolitical upheaval: http://bit.ly/1JTpUg3**