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Economic Impact of International Education in Canada - An Update

Appendix 2 Scenario Analysis

In this appendix, we provide an assessment of how total expenditure will change for four different scenarios of increase in the number of international students in the province at the post-secondary level.

For the purposes of this analysis, we focus on assessing how total expenditure changes:

when a portion of students as represented by CIC data may not be actively pursuing formal training;

when a portion of post-secondary students pursue part-time study; or

when living expenses are higher or lower.

In the rest of this appendix, we will show total expenditure will change as a result of changes in international student enrollment or spending patterns.

Before we proceed, we reproduce Table 13 in the report for comparison purposes.Estimated Total Expenditure of International Students in Canada by Level of Study, by Province and Territory, 2010

Estimated Total Expenditure of International Students in Canada by Level of Study, by Province and Territory, 2010

Secondary or less

Trade

University

Other post-secondary

Other

Total Expenditure

Newfoundland and Labrador

$1,700,000

$702,000

$35,927,000

$2,107,000

$234,000

$40,670,000

Prince Edward Island

$1,440,000

$577,000

$22,856,000

$2,502,000

$ 385,000

$17,760,000

Nova Scotia

$16,720,000

$7,023,000

$173,340,000

$15,730,000

$4,354,000

$217,167,000

New Brunswick

$7,951,000

$1,731,000

$72,975,000

$6,658,000

$4,261,000

$93,576,000

Quebec

$29,437,000

$30,870,000

$829,654,000

$98,194,000

$26,371,000

$1,014,526,000

Ontario

$291,984,000

$316,504,000

$1,441,146,000

$673,685,000

$179,289,000

$2,902,608,000

Manitoba

$15,210,000

$5,364,000

$116,154,000

$14,718,000

$2,338,000

$153,784,000

Saskatchewan

$14,455,000

$1,565,000

$96,516,000

$6,687,000

$1,280,000

$230,503,000

Alberta

$66,152,000

$59,747,000

$288,052,000

$60,705,000

$11,981,000

$486,637,000

British Columbia

$317,998,000

$247,979,000

$878,807,000

$347,814,000

$71,495,000

$1,864,093,000

Yukon, NorthwestTerritories and Nunavut

-

$205,000

$213,000

$205,000

-

$623,000

Total

$763,047,000

$672,267,000

$3,955,640,000

$1,229,005,000

$301,988,000

$6,921,947,000

Source: RKA Estimates

Scenario 1. Assuming 5% of CIC students are not in fact actively pursuing study

Estimated Total Expenditure of International Students in Canada by Level of Study, Assuming 5% Students Not in Training

Estimated Total Expenditure of International Students in Canada by Level of Study, Assuming 5/6 of CIC Post Secondary students paid full tuition and fees and 1/6 CIC Post Secondary students paid half tuition and fees

Secondary or less

Trade

University

Other Post-Secondary

Other

Total Expenditure

Newfoundlandand Labrador

$1,700,000

$675,000

$34,456,000

$2,025,000

$234,000

$39,090,000

Prince Edward Island

$1,440,000

$549,000

$21,688,000

$2,379,000

$385,000

$26,441,000

Nova Scotia

$16,720,000

$6,752,000

$166,332,000

$15,124,000

$4,354,000

$209,282,000

New Brunswick

$7,951,000

$1,665,000

$70,063,000

$6,405,000

$4,261,000

$90,345,000

Quebec

$29,437,000

$29,525,000

$791,890,000

$93,916,000

$26,371,000

$971,139,000

Ontario

$291,984,000

$302,031,000

$1,372,432,000

$642,877,000

$179,289,000

$2,788,613,000

Manitoba

$15,210,000

$5,166,000

$111,642,000

$14,174,000

$2,338,000

$148,530,000

Saskatchewan

$14,455,000

$1,500,000

$92,348,000

$6,411,000

$1,280,000

$115,994,000

Alberta

$66,152,000

$56,957,000

$274,052,000

$57,871,000

$11,981,000

$467,013,000

British Columbia

$317,998,000

$237,141,000

$838,673,000

$332,613,000

$71,495,000

$1,797,920,000

Yukon, NorthwestTerritories and Nunavut

$0

$198,000

$205,000

$198,000

$0

$601,000

Total

$763,047,000

$642,159,000

$3,773,781,000

$1,173,993,000

$301,988,000

$6,654,968,000

Total expenditure was reduced by 4%.

Scenario 3. Assuming Living Expenses are 10% Higher

Estimated Total Expenditure of International Students in Canada by Level of Study, Assuming 10% Higher Living Expenses

Secondary or less

Trade

University

Other Post-Secondary

Other

Total Expenditure

Newfoundlandand Labrador

$1,780,000

$740,000

$37,754,000

$2,219,000

$247,000

$42,740,000

Prince Edward Island

$1,504,000

$601,000

$23,740,000

$2,604,000

$401,000

$28,850,000

Nova Scotia

$17,556,000

$7,400,000

$182,264,000

$16,576,000

$4,588,000

$228,384,000

New Brunswick

$8,283,000

$1,825,000

$76,779,000

$7,020,000

$4,493,000

$98,400,000

Quebec

$30,958,000

$32,343,000

$867,303,000

$102,880,000

$27,630,000

$1,061,114,000

Ontario

$304,434,000

$330,786,000

$1,502,804,000

$704,084,000

$187,379,000

$3,029,487,000

Manitoba

$15,886,000

$5,663,000

$122,355,000

$15,537,000

$2,468,000

$161,909,000

Saskatchewan

$15,074,000

$1,644,000

$101,167,000

$7,025,000

$1,345,000

$126,255,000

Alberta

$69,223,000

$62,374,000

$300,058,000

$63,375,000

$12,508,000

$507,538,000

British Columbia

$331,238,000

$259,771,000

$918,527,000

$364,354,000

$74,895,000

$1,948,785,000

Yukon, NorthwestTerritories and Nunavut

$0

$218,000

$225,000

$218,000

$0

$661,000

Total

$795,936,000

$703,365,000

$4,132,976,000

$1,285,892,000

$315,954,000

$7,234,123,000

Total expenditure would increase by 4.5%.

Scenario 4. Assuming Living Expenses are 10% Lower

Estimated Total Expenditure of International Students in Canada by Level of Study, Assuming 10% Lower Living Expenses