The 2009 offseason has had its share of big moves, but what do those moves mean to fantasy owners in 2009? Are we getting Randy Moss to Oakland, or Randy Moss to New England? While most marquee trades and free agent signings are hyped by team media personnel as an “excellent addition” or “a perfect fit”, they don’t always end up as successful transactions. Here we play Buy or Sell on the biggest moves of the 2009 fantasy football offseason:

Buy

T.J. Houshmandzadeh (Bengals to Seahawks) – Housh had nearly 1,000 yards receiving last season with the unproven and unimpressive Ryan Fitzpatrick as his QB. In Seattle, if Hasselback is healthy, Housh becomes the immediate #1 target for the more than capable Seahawks signal caller. 1,000+ yards and 6+ TDs should be the floor for T.J. “Who’s Your Mama”.

Tony Gonzalez (Chiefs to Falcons) – Future Hall of Famer, Tony Gonzalez, might be changing teams, but his consistent production probably won’t falter. Gonzalez should quickly become the security blanket for young gunslinger Matt Ryan, and in the excellently balanced Falcons offense, Gonzalez could develop into a TD machine for Ryan near the Goal Line.

Laverneus Coles (Jets to Bengals) – A healthy Carson Palmer could throw for 3,500 to 4,000 yards this season, expect Coles and OchoCinco to thrive if the Bengals can protect Palmer. Coles is sure handed and not afraid to go across the middle, much like the WR he was brought in to replace, Houshmandzadeh.

Sell

Jay Cutler (Broncos to Bears) – Much of Jay “Livebetes” Cutler’s success can be derived from the outstanding offensive line that protected him in Denver. In Chicago, the addition of Orlando Pace at Left Tackle won’t be enough to correct the Bears’ problems with protecting the QB. Cutler also goes from having a plethora of playmaking weapons to having a marginal corp of receiving talent. A regression from last season’s 4,000+ yard performance is likely.

Terrell Owens (Cowboys to Bills) – For the past 3 seasons, Romo to Owens was one of the most productive tandems in fantasy football. This season however, Terrible Owens finds a new team to disrupt, but without the on field success. Trent Edwards is a notable decline in talent and ability from Dallas’ Romo, and the Bills’ offense is definitely more run focused. Look for the other Bills WR, Lee Evans, to have better year than T.O. as defenses will key on 81.

Matt Cassel (Patriots to Chiefs) – Before last season Cassel was a career backup (college and pros), likely for a reason; just look at what the Chiefs gave up to acquire him: the aging Mike Vrabel and a 2nd round pick. To put the trade in perspective, Jay Cutler was traded shortly after for two 1st round picks, Kyle Orton, and a 3rd round pick. The talent level around Cassel has precipitously declined in KC and the organization as whole is reorganizing, don’t expect 2008 numbers from Cassel.

Hold

Brandon Marshall (Broncos to Unknown) – Recent news out of Denver is talented and troubled WR Brandon Marshall has requested a trade and rumors are flying about where he’ll land. Depending on where Marshall ends up his fantasy value will vary, but only moderately. On a team with a developed offense and above average QB (i.e. Cardinals), Marshall should flourish and return late 1st round, early 2nd round fantasy value. On an offensively challenged (Ravens) or developing squad Marshall should still return top 10 WR value. However, all value is dependent on Marshall staying out of trouble and avoiding suspension.

I drink more hateraid than anybody on the planet. I know I’m biased but the Cutler situation is much better than people are forecasting. I think Cutler makes the receiver and not the other way around. I believe while there will be a regression in Cutler’s numbers this year, there will also be a dramatic regression in Marshall’s, Scheffler’s, and Royal’s stats too.

After the trade I read a lot of Denver media outlets indicating that Marshall isn’t that crazy good just the Jay could pin the ball to him anywhere on the field. And then Marshall’s size, speed, and leverage would win out. But, those characteristics are predicated on getting the ball there first. Which is why orton sucked. he couldn’t even run a classic screen correctly.

Imagine Forte being screened properly. Especially with the offensive line additions. I think Kreutz sucks now but they won’t ask him to break down the field in the zone or pull him out too much anymore.

So, with that I think Cutler, Olsen, and the rag tag WRs will be OK. Competitive to say the least in the NFC North. Maybe not fantasy wise. But, most of the NFC North secondaries blow too. Now if only there was a cortisone shot to give Hester a braiN. He can’t learn OR retain much of the playbook at all. Booh!

I have been so busy with fantasy baseball, I didn’t realize most of those moves have occurred. Falcons offense should approach awesome this year – Ryan, roddy White, Turner, Gonzo for starters. Coles was a big dissapointment for me last year with the Jets. I would be wary of anyone on the Bengwads. Housh should have a fine season. Agree with all of the sells. Hope the Giants get Edwards; we thrive with a troubled receiver! Speaking of troubled wide-outs, heard a rumor several weeks ago that Plexi-Glass may go to the Jets. But his court situation makes his situation muddled.

@cws05nuts: Definitely agree that Cutler will make the Bears’ receivers better, plus Olsen and Forte are legit talents, however our caveat is that expectations can easily get out of whack for him and the Bears.

Seems like people are either too down on Livebetes b/c of the Bears’ receivers or too high because of his laser, rocket arm and an outstanding 08 performance, my take looks at a couple of main points:

The Bears’ D is significantly better than the Broncos’ D and therefore Cutler won’t be called upon to bring the team from behind or to score a ton to erase deficits created by a porous D. Secondly, the Bears will have a much more balanced attack with the threat of Forte in the backfield. Lastly, Hester is for all we know is a one route receiver (streak), so someone else will need to step up in the WR corp to be a possession guy, a la Marshall. Maybe that’s Olsen, he definitely has the tools.

The over arching point is that while I don’t expect regression to Orton level numbers, expecting 08 Cutler in 09 isn’t advisable.

@cws05nuts: its a catch 22,,number one in order to put up great qb numbers you need your recievers to be able to improvise,they have to be able to catch the tough ball, and know how and when to just make sure the ball isnt intercepted,talent helps a bunch but great coaching(not just the head coach)shows up on the stat sheet.NOW none of this matters if the line cant protect(coaching and skill)or if the qb cant ovoid sack and preasure(coaching and skill) or put the ball where it needs to be(skill mainly,then you have talent like calvin johnson(no coaching or qb talent

@cws05nuts: @Hank: @AL KOHOLIC: All of you have made good points. No doubt that Cutler is talented, but as you said originally, he likely will be better for the Bears then he will be for fantasy. One thing that no one has mentioned yet is the weather. The Bears, like the Giants, will likely not have a QB who puts up Drew Brees numbers because of the cold weather and swirling winds. Truthfully, the last decent Bears QB was Jim McMahon, and his passing numbers were never outrageus as; from late November on the Bears will play ball control; Cutler actually is likely to make Forte more effective then vice versa. Cutler will likely have numbers that approximate someone like Eli Manning; good, but not good enough to win you a championship.

@Corey: sept.3rd is the last preeason game with the season starting a week 10 days later,id say drafting after the 3rd preseason game sunday the 23rd of august. would be a good draft date,getting leagues up and going this early might leave a lot of people (most people wont start getting into football untill the 1st of august .that just a thought of mine the RAZZ F.F. minds will decide

@Paulie Allnuts: I usually factor the weather into my fantasy decisions as well, but looking at Brady’s and Rodger’s numbers while playing in northern climates it is hard to knock Cutler too much. So much depends on luck of the forecast and schedule.

@Doc: The difference between Soldier Field/the Meadowlands, and Lambeau Field/ Patriot home field is not the cold weather – it is the swirling winds. The three most difficult stadiums to pass in during the late fall/winter months are Soldier Field, the Meadowlands, and the Bills home field. Cold weather presents difficulties for footing, but as we saw in the Giant/Packer NFL Championship two years ago, neither Eli nor Favre had any trouble passing, even though this was the third coldest game in league history. But put Eli into the Meadowlands when the wind is swirling, and no can do. I think that Cutler will have the same problems at home late in the year.

I see what you are all saying. However, the Bears D is no longer good. I’m sure I’ll rant in the not so distant future as to why. But as a unit they are as flawed as they come. That said, they still might be better than the other D’s in the North other than the Vikings.

I don’t think you can only look at ’08 Cutler. This isn’t all fantasy related but the past three years have been rather historic for a young quarterback. Also, the reason for optimism is building on Olsen and receiver ‘x’ in the future seeing as he will be in Chicago for a long time.

Weather in the North is annoying. But most of these kids got some playing time either in college or in the pros up north so they have to be somewhat accustomed to it. And it is typically a factor in only a 1-3 games.

@cws05nuts: It is really going to be interesting to see how he does. I think Olsen, Forte and Hester will benefit from his presence for sure. Can he have better numbers than he had in Denver? It will be tough.

@Doc: No it is going to be tough to beat the Denver numbers. Any ’08 Cutler owner can attest to heavy shoulders from Cutler carrying their squad through the first 10-11 weeks.

What I think we can agree on is that there will be a harsh regression for Marshall, Royal, and Scheffler. Anyone think Royal and Scheffler would break out?

I’m still down on Hester because his cognitive abilities are so far below the average NFL player/receiver he simply can’t remember more than a play or two. They know where he is at. I think Lovie is very intelligent. But, keeper league wise, I think his value is extremely high depending on where he will fall in a given draft because of the length of time to build an offensive juggernaut around him. The O-line and RB are already there. 2 year window. Not this year. But, Angelo has to make a splash this offseason on a receiver for this to come to fruition. After that he has to start rebuilding the line and RB.

@Doc: O.K. IT or ill unleash the drunkin idiot i used to be ,,to get screwed means cornholed=corngoaled,give me one or ill start telling stories that only hippo(he was there)would believe,,,i used to be a drinkin man,,6 days a week,(sunday was and is(besides football time)a gallon of milk and 2 med pizzas),now my boy EVAN THOMAS BADGETT,,RULES MY ROOST,,I never had kids of my own,,married a knock out bitch,she was a bitch and luckily couldnt have kids,now i was here when EVAN was born1 pound 10 ounces,yes thats right,mother had preclimpsia,,(she would have died if full term)watched this boy grow in a incabator for 3 months now he is 100 percent healthy and my boy,im on an off night so im getting hammered