Vettel at the age of 25 already has 3 WDC titles in his name and the only thing that may stop him from winning any more titles is if he makes a bad choice of car if he decides to choose another said the legendary commentator Murray Walker.

That Vettel WILL beat Schumacher's record is a prediction I made midway through 2009. Whether I'm right or wrong, I'll wait and see. More often than not over the last decade my predictions have come true though.

_________________"We can not drive slower, just to make the races more exciting." Alain Prost

In fairness that could be said for any of them Perez for instance, bottas no one can know what the future holds, so bit of an obvious statement by mw really

Could be said for any of them how? On what basis has Perez shown he can be a 8xWDC?

At least with Vettel he has shown he can do it winning 3 titles in a row and is still young.

The person who loses most if Vettel beats his records is not Schumi. Vettel is a good friend and something of a protege of his, he would be happy for Vettel. The person who loses the most is Hamilton and everyone else in the current generation of drivers!

Vettel not only has the age, he has the talent. The races at Abu Dhabi and Brazil show that the guy is the whole package, can come from behind, can overtake, can overcome adversity, and appears to have a will of steel. Younger 3xWDC in history, not even close to his peak yet, and already regarded as one of the greatest of all time, one of the fastest ever in qualifying, and one of the more consistent ever in race pace... If he continues to develop in the next few years at a comparable rate as he has done since 2009/2010, he will be unbeatable. Unlike the other top drivers (Jenson, Lewis, Alonso), Vettel does not make the same mistake twice... That, on itself, is a HUGE competitive advantage.

That Vettel WILL beat Schumacher's record is a prediction I made midway through 2009. Whether I'm right or wrong, I'll wait and see. More often than not over the last decade my predictions have come true though.

Under the 10/6/4/3/2/1 system, Schumi would've scored 1335 points across his career; Vettel would be on 415 so far. 10/8/6/5/4/3/2/1 would've seen Schumi finish his career on 1575 points; Seb would currently be on 505. And using the current system, Michael would've amassed a pretty astonishing 3890 points; Seb wouldn't even have a third of that total yet, with just 1244.

Or to put it another way, using just only one scoring system, Seb has scored about 30% of the points Michael would've. I don't think he'll quite get there, but I think it'll be close. Depends how long he races for, and if there are any more seasons like 2011 where he scores a massive haul of points.

As for the rest: wins, I think he'll end up with around 70. Poles, he's already halfway there, so I suspect he'll beat Schumi in that reagrd. Fastest laps? He has 15 to Schumi's 77, and with the competitive nature of the field, the tyres, etc., he may not even reach #2 on that table (currently Prost on 41, but Kimi already has 37, so that may be a moving target). And this, of course, is assuming he stays in a car that at least contends for the WDC each season, that he races for at least another ten years, etc. I do reckon he'll at least equal Schumi's 7 WDC, though.

That Vettel WILL beat Schumacher's record is a prediction I made midway through 2009. Whether I'm right or wrong, I'll wait and see. More often than not over the last decade my predictions have come true though.

Oh wow you said it first?!?!?

We must make you our leader.

Thanks, but I'm pretty certain others will have predicted it before me (I look to Helmet Marko as one). I wanted him to take Hamilton's youngest WDC record in 2009, but 2010 was still enough.

You have to admit though he showed promise in 2007 and 2008 and as 2009 developed it was starting to become clear this kid would dominate given the right kit in his early career, I'd also expect him to with inferior kit as he continues to develop (as all eventually great drivers have done). He's nicely following Schumi's career and that his protege overtakes his records would be an honour to him I'd think.

_________________"We can not drive slower, just to make the races more exciting." Alain Prost

Reminds me of the multiple choice questions you get in tests. If a question is worded "True or False - is it possible...", the answer is always True. But Vettel is undoubtedly off to a great start. Best placed among current crop of drivers. Reminds of McIlroy following Tiger and Federer following Sampras.

Titles. Maybe. I certainly think he'll be one of the closest to that record. Provided he doesn't make a bad career choice or RB looses competitiveness.

I don't think he's going to beat 91 wins. 91 is a stupidly high number and if anyone beats that, I'll be stunned.

Points is a given on this points system. A fair way of comparing will be to work out Schumacher's score on 2010 points system. But that'd be a hell of alot of work.

I don't know on any front. The current era Vettel finds himself in is almost a dead ringer for how the Senna, Prost, Mansell, an older Piquet, and a bunch of other talented guys all on the grid together on good teams, and while Vettel is off to an unbelievable first 5.5 years, he has to hope none of the other teams put it all together and commit no errors for him to continue on this path. This year McLaren looked to have the better car for the duration of the season and Lewis was IMHO equally the best driver along with Alonso and would have won the Drivers title were it not for a handful of mistakes by the team. Vettel however kept his focus and composure and pressed on to take advantage of every opportunity that presented itself to come out on top. Now with Lewis moving onto the uncertainty that defines Mercedes' last 3 seasons, Ferrari and Renault will have to continue to improve to afford their drivers the chance to win races. With Fernando and Massa at Ferrari in a really good car, Kimi and a more mature Grosjean in a good Renault, Button and Perez in a McLaren that's at least as good as this year's car, and then Williams and possibly Sauber and Force India closing the gap with a crop of really good drivers, It will be tough to be the best consistently to eclipse all of Michael's records.

If any drivers have the talent to do it I'd put it between just 3, Vettel, Hamilton and Alonso but it depends what teams they are with and right now Vettel has the best chance unless Ferrari finally figure out how to build one of the best cars again, in which case I'd put it on Alonso getting closer to the records. The perplexing one is Lewis… I think he's the best of them, but for at least the next 3 seasons, Mercedes needs to build a car that's just competitive enough to be top 3 or 4 on the grid and then Lewis' talent and skills would put it/them over the top to take wins from everyone else. I don't know how good Nico is, but from what I've seen, I'm inclined to think Hamilton has the ability to wipe the floor with him. I know they were matched pretty well before as teammates, but since making it to F1 Lewis has seemingly been on another level outside of his tumultuous 2011, though Nico has been in some cars that were lacking a bit.

the incubus - I think Jenson is in the best car next season and his tire woes behind him, and IMO is better placed than Alonso or Hamilton to take the fight to Vettel. I will go so far as to say he is likely to be WDC.

He is equipped to do it as of now - from a personal standpoint, not from a technical one. He's showing he's got the mind game and all that goes with it. Anything can happen on the technical side though and there's no telling how his competitiveness will change with regulation changes and the growth of other drivers on the grid. Even if all that remained pretty static (which is unlikely) he could still stumble personally. Home life falls apart, desire to start a family creeps in, motivation wanes, or the want of a different challenge grows. So could he? Yeah. Will he? There's no telling, but the odds are stacked against him.

I *think* Pirelli is attempting to make the tires simpler to use but degrade more quickly, to make more stops. They will also be heavier, and directional. That last bit is really interesting, and I can't wait to learn why it matters and why its changed.

Johnston has it right. And given such, Hamilton might have a real shot at wins with the Mercedes and Raikkonen, Alonso, Massa, Perez and even Webber whom all have a slightly more aggressive style might all have a much better chance of pushing all the time which would even things out a bit. This year was all about how to get the cars to be as easy as possible on the tires which usually meant that drivers pushed only so hard in the hopes their tires would have a bit more life left compared to everyone else so they can then turn it up a bit and charge their way as far up through the field as the tires would allow.

Iowa'sOnlyF1Viewer wrote:

the incubus - I think Jenson is in the best car next season and his tire woes behind him, and IMO is better placed than Alonso or Hamilton to take the fight to Vettel. I will go so far as to say he is likely to be WDC.

Jenson was in the best car this year and he wasn't able to capitalize on it. In contrast Lewis drove superbly and did an amazing job regardless of the tires usually. If the McLaren is as good next year and the tires have a longer performance window, I think there's a real chance Perez can beat Button if he can exercise patience to not cost himself big in the way of accidents or forcing himself off track. And this is in no way meant to disparage Button. I just think Perez might really surprise people very much the way Hamilton did in 2007.

The last bit if it's what I think it is , is the difference in acceleration and braking.

ATM I think they reckon they are working better in acceleration and the idea is next years will start to work under braking a bit better and the transition in between.

Pirelli did say they are going to make tires that are more durable with a greater performance window to afford drivers who might have a more aggressive style to challenge others without suffering the dire consequences doing so this your brought about.

The last bit if it's what I think it is , is the difference in acceleration and braking.

ATM I think they reckon they are working better in acceleration and the idea is next years will start to work under braking a bit better and the transition in between.

Pirelli did say they are going to make tires that are more durable with a greater performance window to afford drivers who might have a more aggressive style to challenge others without suffering the dire consequences doing so this your brought about.

I don't know if it will help the more aggressive drivers. The aggressive drivers were able to switch them on quicker and keep them in the window. The likes of Button couldn't at times keep both axles in the window and had trouble switching them on. Some drivers were losing the heat which then kicked in the wear.

Going on Practice in Brazil and Hembreys comments next years will be easier turned on and with the wider window easier kept in it. But with the softer compounds and the ease of getting them to the window I would think they could be easier pushed over it too. Look at Hamilton, something like 6 laps and he was complaining they were going off and that was with the current hard compound, next years will be a lot softer.

Button in 2012 is a case of being too smooth to generate the amount of resistance required to get them up to temperature, but last year he had less problems with the tires. Tires can be softer yet more durable and softness does not have to coincide with level of durability. For instance, I had Pirellis on my car that were H rated and offered good grip for a bit but tended to get overcooked easily lose a bit of their bite and then they'd wear down quite rapidly. Now I have W rated Firehawks on the same car, but I can pound the hell out of them and they simply don't wear out as quickly while offering superior grip compared to the Pirellis across the board even though they are indeed softer. So Softer doesn't necessarily mean less durable. The molecular structure of the Rubber Pirelli comes up with is what will designate their rate of wear in relation to how they are being driven rather than their inherent level of softness alone.

Johnston has it right. And given such, Hamilton might have a real shot at wins with the Mercedes and Raikkonen, Alonso, Massa, Perez and even Webber whom all have a slightly more aggressive style might all have a much better chance of pushing all the time which would even things out a bit. This year was all about how to get the cars to be as easy as possible on the tires which usually meant that drivers pushed only so hard in the hopes their tires would have a bit more life left compared to everyone else so they can then turn it up a bit and charge their way as far up through the field as the tires would allow.

What do you mean "no"? What I said doesn't contradict what Johnston said. Wider operating window = simpler to use, because its easier to get in the window. Being as "easy as possible on the tires" this year didn't work for everyone - it was easy for the tire to drop below the optimum temperature if you didn't work them. Some drivers had trouble getting them to that temp initially too, nevermind later in a stint. To be good on its tires a car must have a balance between the ability to "switch" them on without then overheating them, damaging them, or letting them get cold. Lots of people think for the last two years the Ferrari was slow to get to the performance window but good at staying in it once they got there, explaining their often poor qualifying performance and strong race pace.

That Vettel WILL beat Schumacher's record is a prediction I made midway through 2009. Whether I'm right or wrong, I'll wait and see. More often than not over the last decade my predictions have come true though.

Well the good thing about predictions are; if it doesn't happen then your prediction will lost amongst some old dusty (never-to-be-cast-up-again) hard drive somewhere, but if it does then I'm sure you'll be able to find it somewhere (just joking)

Under the 10/6/4/3/2/1 system, Schumi would've scored 1335 points across his career; Vettel would be on 415 so far. 10/8/6/5/4/3/2/1 would've seen Schumi finish his career on 1575 points; Seb would currently be on 505. And using the current system, Michael would've amassed a pretty astonishing 3890 points; Seb wouldn't even have a third of that total yet, with just 1244.

Or to put it another way, using just only one scoring system, Seb has scored about 30% of the points Michael would've. I don't think he'll quite get there, but I think it'll be close. Depends how long he races for, and if there are any more seasons like 2011 where he scores a massive haul of points.

As for the rest: wins, I think he'll end up with around 70. Poles, he's already halfway there, so I suspect he'll beat Schumi in that reagrd. Fastest laps? He has 15 to Schumi's 77, and with the competitive nature of the field, the tyres, etc., he may not even reach #2 on that table (currently Prost on 41, but Kimi already has 37, so that may be a moving target). And this, of course, is assuming he stays in a car that at least contends for the WDC each season, that he races for at least another ten years, etc. I do reckon he'll at least equal Schumi's 7 WDC, though.

In fairness that could be said for any of them Perez for instance, bottas no one can know what the future holds, so bit of an obvious statement by mw really

The same CAN be said of any coming driver, however, realistically, Vettel is the only one in position to do it if he so chooses to continue racing. He has quite the headstart already of 3 titles in 5 years. It's always a possibility the new drivers may only get 1 title (if any) in that same time. Which is a huge change in odds.

Seanie wrote:

scuderia_stevie wrote:

That Vettel WILL beat Schumacher's record is a prediction I made midway through 2009. Whether I'm right or wrong, I'll wait and see. More often than not over the last decade my predictions have come true though.

Oh wow you said it first?!?!?

We must make you our leader.

What on earth was the basis for your post?! Completely uncalled for. And people wonder why everyone fights. LOL

Never once did this gentleman say "first" nor insinuate that he's better than any of us for making the prediction that he had. He simply stated he made that prediction then. And that many of his predictions have come true. It's quite a bold prediction I might add. But I see no reason to mock the man.

Vettel is the only triple world champion in the field, like it or not, he has been the best driver of the last three years. Winning a single WDC is tough.

So, yes he currently in the best position to beat MS's record.

Will he beat it? not sure.... very long way to go. MS won two in a row then had a lean patch for the best part of half a decade before being completely unbeatable. If Seb can stay fit and quick over time (a big accident like MS's broken leg could throw up a raft of issues)

I think there will probably be a team change or two in there for Vettel between now and winning an 8th WDC. How he goes about navigating this will decide whether he beats Michael's record or not. The way he manages himself make me think that he's not going to do a Hamilton and try to 'build a team up'. Instead, he'll be like drivers from the 80's early 90's and driving for whoever is the fastest team at the time.

To those saying this is true of any driver, well yes it is. But is unlikely, and Murray is suggesting he seems like it wouldn't be overly unlikely for it to happen.

Let's be honest, Vettel has won 3 of the 4 WDC he's had a fair shout at. If the Vettel-Newey partnership keeps on rocking like it has, he does stand a pretty solid chance at matching 7 WDCs. With the slightly longer seasons, he has better chance of hitting the magic 92 wins.

I don't see it happening though. Be interesting to be proven wrong though.