Tropical Depression LANE (Text)

ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION LANE DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122012
200 AM PDT WED SEP 19 2012
LANE STOPPED PRODUCING DEEP CONVECTION DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...
AND IT HAS BEEN DOWNGRADED TO A 30-KT DEPRESSION BASED ON A BLEND
OF DVORAK FINAL-T AND CI NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB. SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION IS NOT EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP SINCE THE CENTER IS NOW
OVER 21-22C WATER...AND LANE IS LIKELY TO DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT
LOW LATER THIS MORNING. THE LOW SHOULD BECOME AN OPEN TROUGH BY 48
HOURS...ALTHOUGH ALL THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THIS COULD
OCCUR EVEN SOONER.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 290/8. LANE SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD TODAY AND THEN TURN WESTWARD TONIGHT DUE TO THE LOW-
LEVEL TRADE WINDS. THE NEW NHC TRACK FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO
THE PREVIOUS ONE AND REMAINS NEAR A CONSENSUS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF
MODELS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 19/0900Z 20.8N 130.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 19/1800Z 21.1N 131.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 20/0600Z 21.0N 133.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 20/1800Z 20.8N 135.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 21/0600Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER BERG
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