Dani: In 2004, Pres. Bush proposed to return astronauts to the moon in 16
years. That's twice as long as from Kennedy's speech to the 1969 moon
landing, and (more important) we now know how to do it! Of course, you
could respond that with some streamlining of the NASA bureaucracy, a clear
vision, and lots of money, NASA could perform miracles again. But that's
the point -- it's not a matter of when. We aren't exponentially collapsing
the time it takes to do things. When all the obstacles are out of the way,
impressive things can happen (1969 moon landing, 1940s Manhattan Project).
When they aren't, things slow down (your example of the Space Station).

Good example on the videophone. Nevertheless, the videophone predictions of
the 1960s were wrong, wouldn't you agree?

> failed predictions as well as I do -- moon bases, videophones, and so
> on.

Moon Bases: Speaking as a former rocket scientist, I worked on studies of
the "next generation"
replacements
for the Space Shuttle that NASA is now starting to work on. I worked on the
studies _over 20 years ago_.
NASA
is just incredibly slow at getting anything done these days. Another
example: I started working on the Space Station project in 1988, when the
development contracts were awarded. It's still only half built,
18 years later. We could have had Moon Bases if a competent organization
was in charge. I give it even odds that will beat NASA to a Moon base:
http://www.bigelowaerospace.com/index.htm