Wednesday, October 05, 2016

This morning was Walk to School Day for my Kindergartener. So I dutifully hustled him out the door at 6:45 AM to make it to the meeting spot on time. As soon as my son walks out the door, he declares that it must-be-1-degree-outside-it's-so-cold-and-where-is-the-snow. This is not the case at all, it's 63 degrees. So I'm amused and raising a true southerner it seems. Anyway, in getting out the door so quickly and just the two of us, we incurred the wrath of our 3-year-old, who my husband was holding in a full-body embrace to keep him from sprinting out the door after our car since he so desperately wanted to go, too. Sorry neighbors. He flailed about for awhile (and apparently did indeed manage to break free and chase us in the end) and was only calmed by the promise of a trip to the donut store when I got back home, which meant my husband and I were ridiculously late to work today. So it's been that kind of morning - just rushed and full of negotiations and the path of least resistance. I'm feeling off my game and I opened my e-mail to realize I completely just forgot to post Bob's streaming defense article last night. My apologies. So here he is in all his glory - enjoy!

Back to the streaming grind this week and we have some
interesting matchups but first my mea culpa. I was negligent last week on
missing the Bengals. I had a reader ask me about it prior to the waivers, and
when I looked again, I just blew it. Call it my prejudice against Thursday
Night matchups, but I simply missed the data. I did recommend CIN to the reader
but did not update my article. So in the future if this happens again, you can
bet I’ll update my article. (I feel better now.)

Now let’s look at the results from last week. Even though I
missed CIN we still had a pretty good week on the streams. Note that the highly
owned only managed a one point advantage this week. As I have said before, the
highly owned will perform about the same as recommended streams as the season
goes along. And this week was proof of that. Called the KC demise but was
shocked how bad they were. They just gave up. Projected and actual of the
highly owned were pretty close otherwise. BAL fell short, as the Raiders are
starting to look like a contender. If their Def picks up, they will have
something special going forward.

Week
4 Highly Owned

Team

Opp

Proj
Pts

%
Owned

Actual

DEN

@TB

16

100%

19

CAR

@ATL

9

100%

11

SEA

@NYJ

12

100%

14

ARI

LAR

12

99%

16

HOU

TEN

14

96%

13

NE

BUF

10

90%

5

MIN

NYG

12

85%

9

KC

@PIT

8

81%

2

Average

11.125

Streams
for Week 4

WAS

CLE

10

7%

10

LAR

@ARI

10

78%

16

SD

NO

10

1%

9

BAL

OAK

8

23%

5

Average

10

Now on to this week. The highly owned look to do well with
the exception of HOU. The recommended streams are interesting this week, with
the Eagles only owned in 52% leagues, and some new targets. Also pay attention
to my warnings on CIN and OAK.

Week
5 Highly Owned

Team

Opp

Owned

Proj Pts

Comments

DEN

ATL

100%

12

ATL has been stingy giving up Def pts so far this year, but have
faced three lowly Defs. Last week they gave up 11 pts to CAR, a better
functioning Def than prior weeks. This week watch what happens to a top Def. DEN
is a must start.

ARI

@SF

99%

12

While SF is no longer a target, ARI will be head hunting being
down in the standings. This is ARI's comeback on defense. (Even though it's a
Thurs night game.) Start them with confidence.

CAR

TB

99%

14

TB is not good against good defenses. CAR is a good defense in
spite of their record. This will be a big day for CAR on Def, start them with
confidence.

MIN

HOU

95%

14

Another day at the office for MIN, and another great week for
their Def. Start with confidence.

NEP

@CLE

94%

13

NE gets the number one target and with a renewed energy with
Brady returning, this one will get ugly. Expect big points out of the NE Def.

HOU

@MIN

92%

8

Tough week for HOU as MIN has played great ball control, and
Bradford is experienced enough to avoid sacks and ints. You have to start HOU
but temper your expectations.

Streams
for Week 5

PHI

@DET

52%

14

The Eagles return after a bye and will continue their Def
dominance against a team that hasn't met a good defense yet. This is the
number 1 stream this week due to low ownership.

BUF

@LAR

44%

12

The Rams are a decent target and the Bills are a good defense. Expect
a bump from BUF after a good win last week, and make them your number 2
stream.

PIT

NYJ

56%

10

Has the PIT defense been resurrected? It will look like it after
this week. Jets have given up big points to Defs last two weeks and it looks
like that may continue. This is a good stream probably number 3.

MIA

TEN

12%

9

Even though MIA's defense has been terrible, TEN has been a
reliable target. Number 4 stream this week just because TEN is so generous to
Defs.

CIN

@DAL

71%

6.66

Some will recommend CIN this week, but beware. DAL has been very
stingy giving up Def pts, but have not met a good defense yet. So the jury is
out on this one. CIN had a good week last week against a good target; will
they be able to upset DAL? Be vewy, vewy careful hunting Pwescott. (Elmer
Fudd hunting wabbits.)

OAK

SD

47%

7.5

Oakland has been mentioned as a good stream this week, and maybe
so. But I'm not buying it. SD has given up points just recently due to
injuries, but OAK is averaging a measly 5.3 pts per outing. Until OAK shows me
more on Def I can't recommend them.

That’s the way I see it this week. And remember, I’m not
perfect. If you see an opportunity I missed don’t hesitate to include some
comments, so I can respond and possibly update my results.

Thanx for the questions. I had to take the Rams on one of my leagues due to lack of teams available. The only reason I like Mia this week is due to Ten giving up so many points to Defs. They average giving up 14.5 pts per game! But I'm not sold on the Mia defense this year. The Rams are a better defense, but Buf has only given up 7 points a game, with 11 points to 2 top defenses. Rams are on the cusp of being a top 10 def. So if I had to choose between them, I'd take the Rams.

About Me

So why Fantasy Football Librarian? I have been playing fantasy football now for 12 years. I'm also a librarian at a museum in New York City (though my family and I now live in Knoxville, Tennessee) and I love to research stuff. What could be better than combining my love for football and research? So in September 2006, I launched FFLibrarian to try and create one place for fantasy football fans to find the info they need to succeed in their leagues.
From 2007-2013, I conducted an accuracy analysis of the experts' rankings with support from the Fantasy Sports Trade Association, and have written columns for The New York Times' Fifth Down blog and the Bruno Boys.
Please feel free to contact me if you have any questions or suggestions. Here's to the 2016 season!