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Fabrizio Coricelli, Professor of Economics at the Paris School of Economics, was formerly an economist with the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank, and an economic adviser to the European Commission.

Even if Brexit were reality, Fabrizio Coricelli says the rest of the EU wouldn't be able to share the slice of cake left uneaten by Britain. He says Europeans had not been seriously engaged in a debate on the consequences of Brexit only until recently. He describes the mood within the EU as a gathering around the deathbed of a "wealthy relative," with family members "mentally dividing up their inheritance even before the will is read."
The author highlights the "expectations" among Italians, who "expect a windfall from Brexit, with the strongly pro-EU Prime Minister Matteo Renzi leading the way toward a more integrated Europe, with a prosperous Appenine Peninsula at its center." But the author warns against overestimating such "benefits ... for the rest of the EU, while vastly underestimating the risks."
As Britain is a "significant importer of Italian goods, "higher costs" of doing trade with Britain would "hurt" Italy’s export industry, "at a time when the country is struggling to escape its worst recession since World War II." The author doesn't believe in reducing "trade restrictions" between Britain and the EU, "given the protectionist tendencies" embraced by Brexit supporters, "and the possibility that European policymakers will attempt to deter other member states from following the UK’s lead."
Another "risk" that many are "downplaying" is a "financial-market turmoil, like a "turbulence" which wouldn't be "short-lived." Among various scenarios the author sees "liquidity risks" go up dramatically, posing "a challenge to Britain’s financial sector," and triggering a "large financial shock."
The author dismisses the illusion of Milan expecting "substantial financial-secotr benefits" from London's "demise as the "main center for euro transactions." Perhaps it might "attract a few more clearing houses to Milan," but there are "hundreds of thousands of young Italians – often talented, educated, and hard-working – who have lately flocked to the UK looking for work benefit." They would have to return to Italy, where they could face unemployment. It shouldn't be seen as a tragedy. If managed cleverly, Italy could benefit from these valuable human resources, which possess the skills and expertise the country needs to boost growth.
Italy hardly benefits from "having marginally more influence in a disintegrating EU." However the "invigoration of populist movements, with their dangerous nationalist message," may pose a "major" threat to the country, as demagogues, "having long blamed the EU for Italy’s economic struggles, would surely try to spin the consequences of Brexit to turn citizens against Europe." But Italy "would be worse off outside the EU." It needs reforms to prosper, which had been blocked by "powerful interest groups." The EU has sought to impose "some limits on the interest groups’ power," which might support the populists to whip up popular resentment against the EU, and "the entire European project could be jeopardized."
The author urges "Europeans to start taking seriously the financial, economic, and political threats that Brexit actually poses. Otherwise, when they finally do read their departed relative’s will, they might find themselves empty-handed – and facing a legacy of liabilities."

Very appropriate article, a powerful metaphor, someone on the famiglia is departing but somehow many feel that Omerta is still the way to go, please let us not talk about the rotten family that lets the strong relative’s abuse and systematically mistreat the weak ones, the family that is unable to do what it must and persists in continuing to impose absurd rules.

I for one I’m glad that someone in the family has what it takes to break up and leave, I just hope we Portuguese can follow our big brother and leave this sick family.

People who never speculate or gamble do not understand that there is risk, they think the outcome is certain and it never is. The UK has just gambled

At the heart of the EU problem is the EZ and at the heart of the EZ is a gamble it can be forced to work, aka federalisation. Central to that gamble is Germany and it has lost that bet. Simply not everybody wants to be, or can be, German. France is 20% out on labour costs versus Germany, cannot reform quickly enough so will leave the euro in order to use FX to rebalance, it has no other route at the moment. There is a high risk for the EU now and a high risk for beneficaries such as Poland who have benefited by 100billion euros of EU assistance since joining plus ecopnomic boost through access the the EU market. You can forget Turkey joining whatever Merkel wants. Believe me this is not a good day for Europe. Too many gamblers about betting on others future, turning Europe into a casino is not sound policy

@Jose
Well it appears we are due to find out just how difficult it is to leave the EU. The chances of an integrated EU look further away than ever for the likes of Renzi. The idea EU freedom of movement into the UK will continue will not be acceptable to UK voters, that is the whole basis of the Leave campaign. Cameron has to go down in history as the worst PM ever. Its now quite likely Scotland will have its own referendum to leave the UK despite the fact a low oil prices will leave it with problems

Portugal problems are, under a theoretical base, perfectly framed by a Fixed Exchange Rate situation.
So the problem isn’t the 129% debt, that’s a symptom for the problem which is being a part of a non optimal currency zone, and being on the less competitive side.

@Jose
Portugals problem is its 129% of GDP debt and rating. There is no escape from the EZ. Sorry. Enjoy the Sun

'Portugal only qualifies for the European Central Bank's 1.7 trillion euro quantitative easing scheme because of its ranking with Canadian firm DBRS, while the three other agencies that the ECB recognises all rate the country in junk territory.' Reuters Jun 21

The imminent failure of the Brexit referendum (along with the collapse of the Populist uprising in the United States) will mark 2016 as the greatest triumph for Elite power since the process of "refeudalisation" began in the 1970s.

The EU is an undemocratic, unaccountable institution which exists to promote Elite interests against those of the subject peoples. If EU leaders were unwilling to reform it in the face of the real risk of British independence, there is no way they will be willing to reform it once that rebellion has been crushed.

It may take the politically naive a little time to understand what is going one here, but the lesson that will start sinking in from Friday is this: "If coordinated Elite threats of retribution can bring even the famously independent Britishers to heel, then there is no limit to the power which the EU can exert over disobedient member states. No-one else is anywhere near big enough or determined enough to rebel."

This is shaping up to be a monumental Elite triumph.

And Elite triumph in Europe is matched by Elite triumph in the United States. The Sanders rebellion has been crushed by the Democrat Party. If - as now seems inevitable - the Trump rebellion fails in November, then the lesson which the Republican Establishment will learn is simple: never again will the rank-and-file members of the Party be allowed to choose a nominee. As night follows day, the outcome of this year's election is that the Republicans will adopt the Democrat's system of "super-delegates" to ensure that the party's Establishment has - at the very least - a veto over candidates.

This entrenchment of Elite power may be seen in the broader context of "refeudalisation", a predictable response to the post-industrial era.

Stripped of its ephemera, human history up until the industrial era was a story of aggressively narcissistic, machiavellian psychopaths competing (sometimes collaborating) to attain positions of power, then using that power to dominate and brutalise their fellow human beings. We know from the historical record that such psychopaths felt no empathy for "their" Subjects and no remorse in wasting the lives of thousands - even millions - of them.

If that behaviour seemed to moderate in the Modern Era, it was not because homo sapiens psychology had evolved. Evolution - including evolutionary psychology - operates over a much longer time frame.

All that happened in the Modern Era was a temporary change in the environment. It was just that the demands of the industrial economy made it expedient – for a time – for the Rulers to make certain concessions to their Subjects.

The industrial state required the training of large numbers of Subjects to operate the complex – but not fully automated – machinery of industrial production. Having had so much invested in them, Subjects had value and their bargaining power relative to their Rulers improved. In the extreme, they could withdraw their labour and quickly impose greater costs on the owners of capital than they themselves suffered. Under such conditions, the optimal strategy for Rulers (only after they had tried violent suppression and found it ineffective!) was to make certain limited concession to their Subjects.

Thus we had the quintessential ideals of the 20th century:

a) egalitarianism, the ideal that all people are entitled to the same basic opportunities irrespective of their ancestry;

b) democratisation, the ideal that Subjects are entitled to have some say in how they are governed; and

c) self-determination, the ideal that self-identifying communities are allowed to choose for themselves how they will govern themselves.

But these concessions didn’t mean that the psychopaths had gone away. The snakes have been there all the time. And there was never anything to say that the conditions of industrial production must last forever.

What we are witnessing now is simply the Elite’s response to the POST-industrial world, the world of AI and robotics.

No longer are large numbers of Subjects required to run complex – but not fully automated – machinery. Now it is small numbers of very highly trained technicians required to manage the robotic workforce. Small in number, they can easily be bought off. The IT technicians are the Praetorian Guard of the new regime.

As for the rest of humanity, they are now redundant, or soon will be. Their Rulers no longer need them. The concessions made previously are “inoperative”.

To be sure, they may get employment of a kind, especially in providing personal services. But it will be employment in the "Uber Economy" of savage competition between workers with all economic rent flowing to the owners of the market platforms.

And the Elite are responding precisely as one would expect a self-serving Elite to respond. They are relentlessly winding back any concessions hitherto made, while their economic theologians are busy trying to justify it as being for the “Greater Good”.

Inequality is quickly returning to its historical norm, as Piketty has documented. We are returning to a feudal state in which property is owned by the magnates and everyone else is a defenceless serf.

Even the critical technicians are transformed into obedient indentured workers through the weapon of crippling student debt. If ever they are to get out from under, they must do as they're told.

As for democratisation, in most countries it never developed beyond "elective" government dominated by Elite parties. Moneyed interests and well-organised pressure groups have found it a trivial exercise to subvert it.

And to entrench their gains, they are taking ever more critical decisions out of the hands even of elective government: the privatisation of strategic monopolies and essential services means that elected politicians are forced negotiate with private magnates, on terms dictated by the private magnates. The alienation of taxes to private tax farms (such as road tolling monopolies) is a throwback to the Ferme Generale of the ancien regime.

And finally, self-determination has been eroded by the growth of opaque and unaccountable supranational organisations (like the EU) and so-called “trade” agreements (which actually have little to do with trade and everything to do with taking decisions out of the hands of national governments and giving them to unelected and unaccountable panels of the Elite).

With the Elite triumph of 2016, this is only going to get worse.

At some point, the Elite may even decide that the continued existence of masses of redundant human beings is a threat to their own security.

Already, we have seen the recent unveiling of weaponised robotic “security guards” with rudimentary AI. That technology isn’t going to go away.

You don’t need to be Einstein to see how this game will play itself out. The most plausible scenarios do not support a happy ending for the majority of human beings.

The Populists uprisings of Brexit in Europe and Sanders/Trump in the United States are nothing more than The People engaging in a desperate last stand to forestall the horror that is descending upon them. It is a game that must be fought on a battlefield chosen by the Elite themselves.

Realistically, the chances of success are remote. Realistically, the future is grim.

There is – perhaps – still a tiny window of opportunity to forestall this holocaust, but it is closing rapidly. As the Elite re-consolidate their power it will become ever more difficult for the Subjects to do anything about it.

The only tiny glimmer of hope for most of the human race is that they can somehow fight to introduce Democracy: true Democracy wherein the People exercise actual control over their Rulers, institutional changes which will make politicians truly accountable to the People.

But as things stand now, the chances of averting this holocaust are very, very remote.

Italy apparently has delusions of grandeur, just the measuement of 40% youth unemployment says it all, and that figure is after the ongoing Italian youth exodus. Italy, a good place to leave. A 'more integrated Europe' ROFL. If Renzi is motivated for more Europe it should perhaps be seen as more European buttressing of Italys monsterous debt rollover problem, Safety in numbers eh

As for the endless assumption of Brexit; even if Leave is the vote it still means nothing as this link explains

As for a risk from Brexit to unity in the EU. Brexit is a symptom not a cause. Brexit one way or the other changes nothing in Europe which is causing the disquiet so the quiet riot will continue and may even get noisy. My forecast is light showers of unhappiness and the odd flood risk of resentment. When the light dawns after the UK referendum I expect storms of protest

See also:

In the first year of his presidency, Donald Trump has consistently sold out the blue-collar, socially conservative whites who brought him to power, while pursuing policies to enrich his fellow plutocrats.

Sooner or later, Trump's core supporters will wake up to this fact, so it is worth asking how far he might go to keep them on his side.

A Saudi prince has been revealed to be the buyer of Leonardo da Vinci's "Salvator Mundi," for which he spent $450.3 million. Had he given the money to the poor, as the subject of the painting instructed another rich man, he could have restored eyesight to nine million people, or enabled 13 million families to grow 50% more food.

While many people believe that technological progress and job destruction are accelerating dramatically, there is no evidence of either trend. In reality, total factor productivity, the best summary measure of the pace of technical change, has been stagnating since 2005 in the US and across the advanced-country world.

The Bollywood film Padmavati has inspired heated debate, hysterical threats of violence, and a ban in four states governed by the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party – all before its release. The tolerance that once accompanied India’s remarkable diversity is wearing thin these days.

The Hungarian government has released the results of its "national consultation" on what it calls the "Soros Plan" to flood the country with Muslim migrants and refugees. But no such plan exists, only a taxpayer-funded propaganda campaign to help a corrupt administration deflect attention from its failure to fulfill Hungarians’ aspirations.

French President Emmanuel Macron wants European leaders to appoint a eurozone finance minister as a way to ensure the single currency's long-term viability. But would it work, and, more fundamentally, is it necessary?

The US decision to recognize Jerusalem as the capital of Israel comes in defiance of overwhelming global opposition. The message is clear: the Trump administration is determined to dictate the Israeli version of peace with the Palestinians, rather than to mediate an equitable agreement between the two sides.