Thursday, August 2, 2012

Perak's Black Flags and Vendetta

If Datuk Sak / Ariff's projections for the next Parliament-level GE elections Perak should prove to be right, then Barisan Nasional has identified 11 more parliamentary spots designated as black flags.

This means that Barisan Nasional in Perak could be booted out and trashed in retaliation in the form of votes. This also means that certain state UMNO warlords could be trashed out. The projections were also factored in after certain veteran politicians from UMNO either have been asked or by free will decided not to contest in the next round and make way for other faces to contest. This also assumes that if there's a level playing field in the election game. However some may want to contest there again but could lose this round. The notable black flag spots includes:

1. Larut - Hamzah Zainuddin - former Felcra head

2. Padang Rengas - Nazri Aziz (Minister, PM Dept)

3. Tambun - Ahmad Husni Hanadziah (2nd Finance Minister)

4. Kuala Kangsar - Rafidah Aziz

5. Parit - Mohd. Nizar Zakaria

6. Kampar - Lee Chee Leong (Dep. Home Minister)

7. Pasir Salak - Tajuddin Abdul Rahman (notable UMNO Warlord)

8. Lumut - Kong Cho Ha (Transport Minister)

9. Bagan Datoh - Zahid Hamidi (Defense Minister)

10. Tanjung Malim - Ong Ka Chuan

11. Tapah - M. Saravanan (Deputy, F.T Minister)

There are 3 ministers and 2 deputies that could lose their seats next round. Again this is minus Rafidah and Nazri (Nazri was previously quoted that he is willing to make way if required) ; Rafidah is fulltime in Airasia board - she might not.; Hamzah is also Najib's proxy, Anwar's rival and known as The Man Who Bought Perak (remember the two PKR jumps?)

Note that the projections on parliamentary alone is not enough. Many people within the radius of Ipoh are very angry of how Najib's staged coup in retaking Perak via illegal means. Someone said:

"Perak is a different animal altogether. This is where any amount of
analysis and theories will be good on paper. The simple fact is that the
people of Perak are just waiting for the elections to throw out BN. You
wont be able to see this UNLESS you are on the ground daily in Perak.
The Perakians have fortunately, experienced, different administrations,
however short the opposition's administration was. The way UMNO used
THAT woman to screw Perak of their legitimately voted govt, is still
fresh on the minds of all Perakians. "

However, in order run the state without having the repeat of the same case before, you need to have at around 36-37 Pakatan assemblyman (that's 1-2 ppl short of a 2/3 majority). You also need to throw out some of the BN incumbent assemblymen that are considered scum or who won by a small majority (approximately 1000 votes or below). Examples considered in that scenario include the Pengkalan state seat (skin of teeth majority) and of course for instance Sungai Rapat's Hamidah Osman (remember between the snake and Indian quote?)

An issue that I feel it is being put to question is the attitude of the cousins Ngeh and Nga. One of the reasons of why the PR state government fell was pointed to how the two of them called the shots. Sometimes, their antics have been equated by some people under the BTN influence to say PAS has become a mule by the DAP. It was also said that their antics have also caused some inconvenience to some of the members of the state association. This has also been illustrated in their cold reaction towards the offer by Haris to debate with PSM's Saraswathy on whether who is the better person to contest against BN and Hee Yit Foong (if she decides to recontest) in Jelapang. It's something that also raised some concerns by some NGOs.

The two parliamentary seats considered safety seats are those in the northern parts - Lenggong and Grik. Anyone who don't really like BN would definitely say that those people's attitude there is unwilling to change - with the Malay-majority Aunties and Uncles will say PR who?!

If BN still goes for play dirty - which at this point of time, they are unlikely to reform from top to bottom of the election game, then the seats considered to be 50/50 chance by both sides would be:

Should PR have the 7% reserve, they can win all of those back, with deception and cheating factored. Arguably, the one to look for is Parit Buntar no doubt then Tanjung Malim. The Bagan Datoh entry also piqued me: why would people keep supporting a Minister - who is found and known to commit a battery on an innocent person , talks trash matters including Ketuanan Melayu but yet cows when he's faced with international-level pressure like the French subpoena?

One last thing noted is about campaign money. Assuming that BN's election war chest is at the maximum of RM1.7 billion, approximately RM 121.4 million will be allocated to each state in equal proportions. By rule, the maximum amount of money permitted to campaign in a Parliamentary seat is twice of the state seat, we say that RM 80 million will be contested on the 24 parliamentary seats in Perak.

Based on the projections, Casino UMNO will stand to lose approximately RM 73 million in Parliament-level elections, while they would lose approximately RM 26 million in state elections, equivalent to 81.5% of the total money allotted. It could be that the silent majority is hell bent on vendetta since the courts have denied them the right of letting the government of their choice complete the service and the mandate entrusted to them. 3.5 years taken away by force so far.