A hypothesis

I put together a small hypothesis while I was trying to predict when the coronavirus upbreak is going to let up.

Let's suppose that the data published by China on the number of cases in Hubei (the first and larger epicentre) has a certain degree of validity.

The number of cases in Italy (red line) has followed the same growth rate that Hubei (blue line) had about 6 weeks earlier for the last 3 weeks or so.

If Italy continues to follow Hubei's growth rate adjusted for a slightly larger population (green line), on around 25 March the number of new cases in Italy should start to decline (yellow circle) and level up in the following month. Other countries may follow the same pattern with a few weeks delay. For instance Belgium has followed the same pattern of cases per million inhabitants as Italy but with a delay of 9 days. The UK and US have a longer delay.

Please be warned that this is only a hypothesis with many assumptions and there is no guarantee that this is what is going to happen.

Interesting. Although Hubei and even Italy were taken by surprise. The rest of us have been able to prepare. I for one have been working from home for a week.
Being prepared means a lower slope which at best means that the healthcare can help a larger number of people. It also buys us valuable time: The last one in line will have better treatment and the next ones will probably have a vaccination. Let's hope for the best.

The Italian data does not distinguish those that had multiple other diseases and then died when COVID19 was added. Children have very little problem with this mild virus as they are usually otherwise healthy.

"The Rome-based institute has examined medical records of about 18% of the country’s coronavirus fatalities, finding that just three victims, or 0.8% of the total, had no previous pathology. Almost half of the victims suffered from at least three prior illnesses and about a fourth had either one or two previous conditions.More than 75% had high blood pressure, about 35% had diabetes and a third suffered from heart disease."https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...-died-from-virus-had-other-illness-italy-says

What a nonsense it is to close down much of the global economy for a mild virus. Many casual workers losing shifts and often employment will soon be facing homelessness. That has a much higher death rate.

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