Sunday, December 30, 2012

Baseball Hall of Fame Class of 2013: Part I

This is the first of a 4 part look at the Baseball Hall of Fame Ballot for the Class of 2013, in which we attempt to predict the order the candidates will finish.

By Dan Trammel
@HighwaytoHall

At the Highway to Hall, we try to assess a player’s chances of being inducted into the Hall of Fame. We are less concerned with the “Should he?” than the “Will he?” With the Major League Baseball’s release of the Hall of Fame ballot for the Class of 2013, let’s assess the chances of each player’s induction (into this year’s class), presented in the order in which we expect them to finish.

Before we begin, it’s important to note a player needs 75% of the vote for induction. As Joe Posnanski recently opined, “[T]o get 75% of the voters to agree on his Hall of Fame worth, he must win any number of arguments. If 6% don’t vote for a player because of his defensive deficiencies, 9% because of his base running flaws, 7% because he did not hit with enough power, 4% because he wasn’t good enough in the postseason…he doesn’t have enough votes. It isn’t just one reason. It’s never just one reason.”[i]

In order to accurately predict how the voters will vote, one must first consider the (potential) arguments against each player as well as certain ideologies voters carry with them.

All voters (presumably) consider enshrinement into the Hall of Fame to be an honor. A select few believe that there is a higher honor within the Hall itself: a First-ballot Hall of Famer. These voters believe this honor is reserved for the likes of Hank Aaron, Willie Mays, and Mike Schmidt. If you are not in that class of player, certain voters will not vote for you on the first ballot. See Roberto Alomar.

Other voters believe that since no player has received 100% of the vote, no player should. This argument has come up in recent years when Rickey Henderson, Cal Ripken, Jr. and Tony Gwynn were on the ballot. As such, a handful of voters withhold their vote. This typically does not make a difference with the overwhelming obvious choices like the aforementioned three players, but combined with reason number 1, it can make a difference. It will be interesting to see Greg Maddux’s vote total in 2014. Can anyone really think of a reason not to vote for Maddux?

Some voters will not vote for PED users or suspected PED users. This is self-explanatory.

Some voters will not vote for anyone from the “Steroid Era.” This is a more significant factor than the previous one. This is the one that impacts players like Craig Biggio. Voters are waiting to see the fallout from the era. Once a player is inducted into the Hall, the voters are unable to change their minds and have him removed if it is later revealed that he used performance enhancing drugs. Some voters would rather wait and see if any additional information will come out.

With this backdrop, which modern era candidates will make up the Class of 2013? Our prediction: No one.

It only takes 25.1% of the voters to find something wrong with a player’s candidacy for him not to be elected. With the combination of the above factors, we believe everyone will fall short. Mind you, this is not our belief on what should happen, but what will happen. Here is our predicted order of finish:

Craig Biggio

Biggio will be a Hall of Famer in the near future. In fact, he will come very close this year, finishing with approximately 70% of the vote. As stated previously, some voters will punish him for being part of the “steroid era.” Others will punish him for not being Ted Williams or Joe Morgan. He collected 3,060 hits, but his .281 batting average is the third lowest among members of the “3000 Hit Club.” He ranks 5th All-time in doubles and 15th All-time in runs scored, but he never finished higher than 4th in MVP voting. For the fans of WAR[ii], he is 129th all-time, behind Graig Nettles, Kevin Brown, and Lou Whitaker. In fact, his WAR places him 11th among players on this year’s Hall of Fame ballot, behind, among others, Kenny Lofton, who will struggle to receive the necessary 5% of the vote to remain on the ballot. Ultimately, Biggio will be inducted. But not this year (my guess is as part of the Class of 2015).

Jack Morris

3.90. That is the number keeping Morris out of the Hall of Fame. His career ERA would be the highest among all Hall of Fame pitchers. His supporters argue he was a “workhorse.” And there were few pitchers to whom you would rather give the ball in a Game 7. Slowly, his supporters have gained ground. In his 13 years on the ballot, Morris has seen his vote total rise from 19.6% in year two to 66.7% last year. No player has ever reached that total and not been elected (Gil Hodges peaked at 63.4%), although several players needed the help of the Veterans Committee to gain entrance.[iii] It would seem to be inevitable that Morris will be inducted. But with only 2 years remaining on the ballot, time is running out to gain entrance via the Writers’ vote. The additions of Tom Glavine, Greg Maddux, and Mike Mussina to the ballot next year (Morris’ final year on the ballot) make Morris’ chances even shakier. Ultimately, that 3.90 ERA will continue to shine like a beacon. His vote total will increase to 68%, with time for one final push next year.

Mike Piazza

Piazza is a 12-time All-Star with a .308 career batting average, good for 4th All-Time among catchers with at least 1,000 games played (Joe Mauer, Mickey Cochrane, and Bill Dickey). He leads all catchers in home runs, slugging percentage, and OPS. Although he is a no-brainer selection, so was Gary Carter, who had to wait 6 years for induction. Piazza probably won’t have to wait that long. But he played during the “Steroid Era.” Though no evidence has ever linked Piazza to PED use, he is guilty by association, which will delay his induction by a few years. He will come in just under 60% this year.

Jeff Bagwell

Similar to Piazza, Bagwell is guilty of playing during the “Steroid Era,” which has certainly hindered his vote totals his first two years on the ballot. Additionally, playing in Houston, Bagwell’s career seemingly flew under the radar. He was named to only 4 All-Star teams and his teams lost in the Division Series 4 of the 6 seasons he appeared in the playoffs. National audiences missed seeing him play. As a result, it has taken a couple of years for the voters to really appreciate how impressive Bagwell’s numbers are. He will receive 58% or so and will probably join Biggio as part of the Class of 2015.

Tim Raines

With Bert Blyleven’s induction, the sabermetric crowd will likely now turn its attention to Tim Raines, who, as we have probably all heard, reached base more times in his career than Tony Gwynn. What usually is not said is that Rusty Staub reached base more often than both of them. In fact, of the 42 players who reached base more than Staub, all those eligible for the Hall have been inducted, excepting Pete Rose and Rafael Palmeiro. But Staub spent only 7 years on the ballot, reaching a high of 7.9% in 1994, and falling off in 1997 after only receiving 3.8%, so no one can campaign for him anymore. So let’s talk about Raines.

A 7-time All-Star, Raines won a batting title and received MVP votes 7 times. He led the National League in stolen bases 4 consecutive times and runs scored twice. His 808 career stolen bases rank 5th all-time, while his 84.7% success rate ranks only behind Carlos Beltran among all players with a minimum of 300 stolen base attempts. He is widely regarded as the second greatest leadoff hitter in history, behind only contemporary Rickey Henderson. This is his 6th year on the ballot and he made a significant jump last year, moving from 37.5% in 2011 to 48.7% in 2012. The voters are starting to take a closer look at his numbers and he should make another sizable leap this year.

Lee Smith

We’ve discussed Smith’s candidacy at length in a previous post. He made a pretty significant jump last year, finally breaking the 50% barrier. His vote total will continue to increase and he will receive about 53% of the vote, with 4 years remaining on the ballot.

Roger Clemens

Under normal circumstances, Clemens, a 7-time Cy Young Award winner with 354 career wins, would be a first-ballot Hall of Famer. Suspected PED-use will certainly keep him out for now. But his alleged steroid use began in 1998, meaning he totaled 213 wins and won 4 Cy Young Awards prior to performance enhancing drugs. As such, he will receive considerably more support than a typical PED-user from voters who believe he would have been a Hall of Famer without enhancements. He will receive approximately 45% of the vote.

Barry Bonds

Similar to Clemens, Bonds is a no-doubt inner-circle Hall of Famer. Similarly, alleged steroid use will keep him out. But 411 home runs and 445 stolen bases before his alleged steroid use began will sway many of the voters. He also will receive approximately 45% of the vote.

Curt Schilling

Like Bagwell, Schilling was underappreciated for much of his career, with his best seasons wasted on bad Phillies teams. Fortunately for Schilling, his career was resurrected in Arizona, whom he helped lead to a World Series Championship in 2001. He followed that up by helping the Red Sox break the Curse of the Bambino in 2004. Nonetheless, he won’t be elected this year. Voters are going to spend too much time staring at his 216 career wins, a total that places him in a tie for 82nd with Wilbur Cooper and Charlie Hough. Over the next couple of years, the sabermetricians will take up his case and explain to the voters how dominant Schilling was. He struck out 3,116 batters in his career. He is one of 4 pitchers to have 3 or more 300+ strikeout seasons, along with Sandy Koufax (3), Nolan Ryan (6), and Randy Johnson (6). His strikeout to walk ratio is 2nd all-time to Tommy Bond, a pitcher from the 1870s when more than 4 balls were required for a walk. And he is one of the great postseason pitchers of all-time, going 11-2 with a 2.23 ERA in 19 career starts. He will get in. The voters will just need to be reminded a couple of times that he deserves to be there. He will receive about 40% of the vote.

Alan Trammell

In 1973, the starting shortstops for each of the American League teams produced these numbers:

Name

Team

AB

R

H

2B

HR

RBI

SB

BA

OBP

SLG

Mark Belanger

BAL

470

60

106

15

0

27

13

.226

.302

.262

Luis Aparicio

BOS

499

56

135

17

0

49

13

.271

.324

.309

Rudy Meoli

CAL

305

36

68

12

2

23

2

.223

.290

.289

Eddie Leon

CHW

399

37

91

10

3

30

1

.228

.291

.291

Frank Duffy

CLE

361

34

95

16

8

50

6

.263

.312

.396

Ed Brinkman

DET

515

55

122

16

7

40

0

.237

.284

.324

Freddie Patek

KC

501

82

117

19

5

45

36

.234

.311

.321

Tim Johnson

MIL

465

39

99

10

0

32

6

.213

.259

.243

Danny Thompson

MIN

347

29

78

13

1

36

1

.225

.259

.282

Gene Michael

NYY

418

30

94

11

3

47

1

.225

.270

.278

Bert Campaneris

OAK

601

89

150

17

4

46

34

.250

.308

.318

Toby Harrah

TEX

461

64

120

16

10

50

10

.260

.328

.364

In 1983, the starting shortstops produced these numbers:

Name

Team

AB

R

H

2B

HR

RBI

SB

BA

OBP

SLG

Cal Ripken, Jr.

BAL

663

121

211

47

27

102

0

.318

.371

.517

Glenn Hoffman

BOS

473

56

123

24

4

41

1

.260

.306

.340

Tim Foli

CAL

330

29

83

10

2

29

2

.252

.263

.300

Jerry Dybzinski

CHW

256

30

59

10

1

32

11

.230

.283

.289

Julio Franco

CLE

560

68

153

24

8

80

32

.273

.306

.388

Alan Trammel

DET

505

83

161

31

14

66

30

.319

.385

.471

UL Washington

KC

547

76

129

19

5

41

40

.236

.298

.320

Robin Yount

MIL

578

102

178

42

17

80

12

.308

.383

.503

Ron Washington

MIN

317

28

78

7

4

26

10

.246

.296

.325

Roy Smalley

NYY

451

70

124

24

18

62

3

.275

.357

.452

Tony Phillips

OAK

412

54

102

12

4

35

16

.248

.327

.320

Spike Owen

SEA

306

36

60

11

2

21

10

.196

.257

.271

Bucky Dent

TEX

417

36

99

15

2

34

3

.237

.278

.297

Alfredo Griffin

TOR

528

62

132

22

4

47

8

.250

.289

.348

Whereas in 1973 only one shortstop had double digit home runs, in 1983 four did. In 1973, no shortstop had a slugging percentage over .400 and only two had slugging percentages over .325 (which is a terrible slugging percentage). In 1983, four slugged over .400 and eight slugged over .325 (albeit with 2 additional teams in the League).

Name

Team

AB

R

H

2B

HR

RBI

SB

BA

OBP

SLG

David Eckstein

ANA

452

59

114

22

3

31

16

.252

.325

.325

Deivi Cruz

BAL

548

61

137

24

14

65

1

.250

.269

.378

Nomar Garciaparra

BOS

658

120

198

37

28

105

19

.301

.345

.524

Jose Valentin

CHW

503

79

119

26

28

74

8

.237

.313

.463

Jhonny Peralta

CLE

242

24

55

10

4

21

1

.227

.295

.326

Ramon Santiago

DET

444

41

100

18

2

29

10

.225

.292

.284

Angel Berroa

KC

567

92

163

28

17

73

21

.287

.338

.451

Christian Guzman

MIN

534

78

143

15

3

53

18

.268

.311

.365

Derek Jeter

NYY

482

87

156

25

10

52

11

.324

.393

.450

Miguel Tejada

OAK

636

98

177

42

27

106

10

.278

.336

.472

Carlos Guillen

SEA

388

63

107

19

7

52

4

.276

.359

.394

Julio Lugo

TBD

433

58

119

13

15

53

10

.275

.333

.427

Alex Rodriguez

TEX

607

124

181

30

47

118

17

.298

.396

.600

Chris Woodward

TOR

349

49

91

22

7

45

1

.261

.316

.395

In 2003, eight shortstops reached double digits in home runs, and all but one slugged over .325, with seven of them slugging over .400. Alex Rodriguez hit more home runs in 2003 then the shortstops from table 1 hit combined in 1973. In the late 1970s and early 1980s, Robin Yount, Cal Ripken, Jr., Alan Trammell, and Roy Smalley changed the perception of the shortstop. They showed the shortstop position could be played by a man who could produce offensively. They passed the torch to Alex Rodriguez, Derek Jeter, Nomar Garciaparra, and Miguel Tejada, who produced even better numbers.

Here is the list of 24 shortstops with 150 or more career home runs, minimum 40 percent of their games played at the shortstop position:

HR

Player

Years Active

647

Alex Rodriguez

1994-Present

512

Ernie Banks

1953-71

431

Cal Ripken, Jr.

1981-2001

304

Miguel Tejada

1997-2011

255

Derek Jeter

1995-Present

251

Robin Yount

1974-93

249

John Valentin

1992-2007

247

Vern Stephens

1941-55

229

Nomar Garciaparra

1996-2009

210

Rico Petrocelli

1963-76

198

Barry Larkin

1986-2004

195

Jay Bell

1986-2003

193

Jimmy Rollins

2000-Present

186

Rich Aurilia

1995-2009

185

Alan Trammell

1977-96

177

Michael Young

2000-Present

170

Joe Cronin

1926-45

168

Jose Hernandez

1991-2006

163

Roy Smalley

1975-87

158

Hanley Ramirez

2005-Present

157

Juan Uribe

2001-Present

156

Alex Gonzalez

1998-Present

151

Jim Fregosi

1961-78

150

Shawon Dunston

1985-2002

Only 4 of the players listed were active prior to 1970, and 12 of the players’ careers began after 1990. By the time Trammell became eligible for Cooperstown, the shortstop position had changed that it became more difficult to appreciate how great he was. He didn’t reach 3,000 hits or win an MVP Award like Ripken or Yount so his name is largely forgotten.But his candidacy took a sizeable leap last year when his vote total increased from 24.3% to 36.8%. He should gain a few more votes this year to get him around 40%.

Continue to Part 2 of our series on the Baseball Hall of Fame Class of 2013.

[iii]Enos Slaughterpeaked at 68.9 percent in 1978, and received 68.8 percent of the vote in his final year on the ballot in 1979. He was elected by the Veterans Committee in 1985. Jim Bunning received 74.2 percent of the vote in 1988, a total that fell to 63.7 percent in his final year on the ballot in 1991. The Veterans Committee elected him in 1996. Orlando Cepeda peaked at 73.6 percent in his final year in 1994. The Veterans Committee tabbed him in 1999.