Porter Airlines is announcing expansion plans on Wednesday, two days after a report said it will become Bombardier’s first Canadian customer for the CSeries aircraft, allowing Porter to go beyond regional flying.

It is unclear whether Porter plans to expand flights out of the Toronto island airport. But if it wants to fly the new CSeries jets there, it would face a series of hurdles that could spark a political firestorm.

The issues it would face include the existing tripartite agreement, signed in 1983 by all three levels of governments, which runs until 2033. That agreement prohibits the use of jet aircraft at the island except in certain circumstances such as medical evacuation flights or during the CNE.

The airport has 202 daily slots controlling takeoffs and landings, of which Porter controls the vast majority. Air Canada holds only 30 that it uses on its Toronto-Montreal route.

If the island airport is headed for jets, the biggest challenge will be whether the runway, which stands just shy of 4,000 feet, can be extended. The CSeries plane needs a minimum runway length of 4,000 feet to takeoff and 4,400 feet to land. However, at its maximum weight, it needs 4,800 feet for take off, and 4,400 feet to land.

Regulations could be changed as they were when the Toronto Port Authority, which oversees the airport, moved to build a pedestrian tunnel from the mainland to the airport, as an alternative to the ferry.

Construction is under way, and the tunnel is scheduled to open in spring 2014.

A Transport Canada spokeswoman said the department has not been approached by the other governments or anyone else to amend the tripartite agreement to allow jet aircraft to operate there.

According to the Wall St. Journal, citing two unnamed sources, Porter Airlines has signed a letter of intent for 12 CSeries 100 planes, seating 100 to 125 passengers, with options to buy another 18.

A Bombardier spokeswoman said, “We don’t comment on industry speculation or rumours.” A Porter spokesman refused to elaborate on a news conference scheduled for Wednesday.

Given the size of the CSeries plane, Porter could easily fly to the west coast of Canada or the United States, as well as Florida and sun destinations in the Caribbean.

Porter began operations in 2006 with flights to Ottawa and Montreal with Bombardier’s Q400 turboprops. It now flies to 18 U.S. and Canadian destinations.

When asked whether he would support a runway extension for Porter, Toronto Mayor Rob Ford told reporters: “I support Porter Airlines. I think Bob Deluce (Porter’s president and CEO) is doing a fantastic job.

“That’s a real success story so I’d like to sit down and find out,” Ford said.

“I think they were talking about it has to be extended by about 400 feet — I’m not quite sure what the specifics are but I’d have to look into it and, like I said, I’m in favour of Billy Bishop Airport and Porter Airlines and the job that Bob Deluce is doing.”

Councillor Denzil Minnan-Wong, who chairs the works committee, said the potential development was not anticipated. “I think that there is going to be very vigorous debate that is going to be akin to the debate of the bridge that we had about 10 years ago,” he said.

Back in 2003, island residents vehemently opposed construction of a bridge to the island, over fears that it would lead to airport expansion. Stopping the bridge became a central theme of the municipal election campaign, propelling David Miller into the mayor’s office.

“We are concerned. Obviously, we don’t know what’s going on the background,” said Community AIR spokesman Bill Freeman. “We do continue to oppose the island airport. We would like to see it shut down.”

Olivia Chow, who is the NDP transport critic and MP for the area near airport, questioned any effort to bring jets to Billy Bishop.

“I hope Porter Airlines would respect the law, and if they wish to change the tripartite agreement, there should be a business plan and formal application to all levels of government to change the agreement,” she said.

For Bombardier, if Porter signs on to the CSeries, it would help to build momentum as the aircraft manufacturer prepares for the plane’s first flight scheduled to take place by the end of June.

Bombardier workers are in the final stages of putting together the all-new jet. Deliveries of the CSeries aircraft are expected to begin in mid-2014.

Analysts were cautious about Porter’s move, given the unknowns at the island airport.

“The city centre airport is a non-starter for the jet,” said Robert Kokonis, an analyst with AirTrav research firm. “You would want that aircraft to fly into any city in your network.”

Kokonis also questioned Porter’s financial strength given its load factors, which measure how many passengers are on flights, have been falling in recent months, while both Air Canada and WestJet are on the rise.

In March, Porter reported a load factor of 58.1 per cent, compared with 59.8 per cent in March 2012. Air Canada had a load factor of 83.5 per cent, while WestJet had 86.1 per cent in March.

He added that setting up operations out of Toronto’s Pearson airport wouldn’t make sense due to the cost of two hubs, as well as undercutting Porter’s convenience advantage for those who prefer to fly from downtown.

Rotman School of Management professor Joseph D’Cruz called a CSeries purchase a risky move.

“I can’t see the logic of doing it, except that it opens up expansion possibilities,” D’Cruz said.

“Moving from a single aircraft to two aircraft is always risky. It drives up complexity and cost,” he said, adding more training, staff, mechanics and even spare parts are needed.

While Porter might want to compete on longer routes in Canada and to the U.S., bigger rivals Air Canada and WestJet Airlines would slash fares.

“It would trigger retaliation. They will fight him by discounting,” said D’Cruz. While consumers could win in the short term, “in the long term, Porter may not survive that competition,” he said, rhyming off a list of failed Canadian airlines.

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