The smart money figures this time next week the ballot battle will be on.

In a week, Rachel Notley and Jason Kenney will have already fired their first rounds of political ammo. The deep thinkers will have offered up their first not-so-deep thoughts for easy digestion.

Time moves quickly.

For a lot of Albertans, it’s like the mood your scribbler found while sitting ringside at Vegas covering title fights and seeing the likes of Mike Tyson try to tear people apart.

There is a moment in some fights when the champ is still standing, still throwing punches but the final outcome becomes ever more inevitable. You feel an anticipation rise in the crowd, a feeling they are seeing something special.

They are seeing the champ go down.

Every day people who are not political insiders or party loyalists tell me the Notley NDP is done. They do not quote polls. They do not indulge in analysis.

They say it in a matter-of-fact way. It’s what they feel. It’s what they’ve heard. They do not elaborate much.

Often they not only claim the NDP will lose. They predict the NDP will lose big, perhaps in a landslide.

The NDP do not believe in this Armageddon. They know they are underdogs. They are not stupid.

But they do not believe Jason Kenney’s United Conservatives are up by 20 points in the polls.

Within the ranks of the Notley Crue, there is a feeling they’re actually closing the gap and momentum is going their way.

Let people say the United Conservatives have it in the bag. Have people write the NDP off. The NDP is nowhere near throwing in the towel.

I know what some readers will say. The NDP have lost their minds. They’re dreaming in Technicolour.

The economy is like a wet blanket over us all — the lost jobs, the empty offices, the carbon tax two out of three Albertans still oppose, the pipeline.

Numbers float around.

More folks thinking things are on the wrong track than the right track.

The economy and jobs are far more important than other issues.

A strong desire to shake up Ottawa, as Albertans feel mistreated and maligned in this arrangement we call Confederation.

An idea the provincial government could pull in spending a little without the world falling apart.

If these numbers are true, the United Conservatives are truly in the driver’s seat.

United Conservative Ric McIver has been through a few elections. He’s been on both ends, winning and losing.

He’s been on the side people thought would lose and the side won. He has also been on the side people thought would win and the side lost.

He knows what goes on before election day has made and broken the ambitions of many political parties.

UCP MLA Ric McIver endorsed Jason Kenney in the leadership race for the new party during an announcement in Calgary on Wednesday September 13, 2017. Gavin Young/PostmediaGavin Young /
Calgary Herald

McIver respects Notley very much and disagrees with her very much.

“We are going to have a fierce and spirited debate. No one should think it is going to be easy. Premier Notley proved herself to be a fierce competitor last time around and I’m sure she’ll do the same this time around,” he says.

“Premier Notley is not going to hand the reins of government over to anybody willingly and you can’t blame her for that. They haven’t even started adding up the score yet, let alone finish.”

McIver says Albertans will not be pleased with anyone who takes them for granted. He says the United Conservatives will remain vigilant and not make that mistake.

“You never know the result until people go the ballot box. There are times the opinions of people at the end of the campaign are different than at the beginning. Campaigns matter.”

And, in 2015, McIver was a key player in the Prentice PC government. That government was soundly beaten — by the NDP. It was the end of a dynasty.

In 2019, it is the Notley NDP doing the governing.

“What I make my judgment on is what I hear when I’m knocking on doors and I’ve been out knocking on doors,” says McIver.

“Four years ago, people were mad at the government and they fired that government. I really sense they’re mad at the government again but we don’t know yet whether they’re mad enough to fire this government.”

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