Liberal Democrats give Dean lead in Field Poll / Vermont's former governor has surged since spring

Liberal Democrats give Dean lead in Field Poll / Vermont's former governor has surged since spring

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Former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean, buoyed by liberal, white and college- educated voters, has surged to the head of the pack in California's crowded Democratic presidential primary, according to a Field Poll released today.

"The wind is at (Dean's) back across the country and especially here in California," said Mark DiCamillo, director of the Field Poll. "Every time we've done a poll, his numbers have been up by a substantial margin."

A poll last April had Dean with only 7 percent support among California Democrats, compared with 22 percent for Connecticut Sen. Joe Lieberman and 16 percent for Sen. John Kerry of Massachusetts. By July, the three candidates were in a virtual dead heat with about 15 percent each.

The new survey puts Dean on top in the March 2004 primary at 23 percent, with Lieberman at 15 percent, Kerry at 11 percent, Missouri Rep. Dick Gephardt at 8 percent and the rest of the Democratic field at 4 percent or less.

Showing up in the polling for the first time, at 4 percent, is former Gen. Wesley Clark, who is expected to formally announce his candidacy today.

Given the margin of error, the poll also showed the top four Democratic candidates all fare similarly in head-to-head matchups with President Bush.

The survey showed Lieberman as the choice of the more moderate wing of California Democrats, with backing from 20 percent of those who describe themselves as moderate or conservative.

"Lieberman is holding his ground as the center-right candidate, which can allow him to hold himself up as a more electable alternative to a more liberal candidate," DiCamillo said.

The poll was especially bad news for Kerry, who has spent an enormous amount of time in California, working to raise money and to cultivate high- tech industry sources and state Democratic leaders. But his appeal to liberal voters has been swamped by Dean's growing popularity.

Liberal voters "have migrated from Kerry and are going right into the back pocket of Dean," DiCamillo said.

Kerry's campaign in the state got a boost Tuesday when California Sen. Dianne Feinstein endorsed him. Kerry has the "strength, experience, leadership and judgment to be an excellent president," the former San Francisco mayor said in a prepared statement.

Dean's increasing strength has been fueled by a narrow mix of supporters. He is backed by 36 percent of Democratic liberals, 37 percent of college graduates, 35 percent of white voters and 34 percent of males. Only 6 percent of California's minority Democrats backed Dean in the survey, compared with 16 percent who supported Lieberman.

"It's a very unusual pattern for a Democratic candidate, one that's very targeted," DiCamillo said. "There are certain subgroups he's appealing to."

There's still plenty of room for change in the California primary race, with almost 3 in 10 enrolled Democratic voters remaining undecided. That number climbs to 36 percent among women, 35 percent among voters 18 to 49, 40 percent among minority voters and 42 percent among voters who didn't graduate from college.

"There is no heir apparent, no incumbent and no vice president looking to move up," DiCamillo said. "It's a wide-open year."

Dean's narrow appeal shows up in the head-to-head match-up with Bush, where he appears weaker than the other leading Democrats, losing to Bush by 45 percent to 40 percent. Lieberman, Kerry and Gephardt are locked in statistical dead heats with Bush.

The results, which show Bush with about 45 percent of the vote against any of the leading Democrats, isn't encouraging for Republicans, DiCamillo said.

"The stability of the Bush vote has to be worrisome for the president's supporters," he said.

The poll is based on a telephone survey of 649 registered voters, including 285 Democrats, taken Sept. 3-7. Margin of error is plus or minus 4 percentage points among registered voters and plus or minus 5.9 percentage points among the Democratic sample.