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For major league hitters, .280 is the new .300

Those who enjoy scouring baseball box scores to check on the progress of .300 hitters don't have to scour for long these days. As you might figure, they are another victim in this era of declining offense,

Those who enjoy scouring baseball box scores to check on the progress of .300 hitters don't have to scour for long these days.

As you might figure, they are another victim in this era of declining offense, going the way of complete games, choking up with two strikes and doubleheaders. The way this season is progressing, more players could finish with 150 strikeouts than a .300 batting average.

In the major leagues, .300 always has been regarded as a special number. Like a 20-point-a-game scorer in basketball or a 1,000-yards-a-season rusher in football, it is a benchmark for excellence. A .300 season will get you a pay raise, which is why so many players through the years have asked off on the last day of a season. They wanted to preserve their precious .300.

But as offense sags for a fifth consecutive season, the .300 hitter has become an endangered species. Only 21 players (minimum 400 plate appearances) carried a .300 batting average into the week. That is a third of the total that reached the mark in the offensive explosion of 2000.

We haven't quite reached the lows of 1968, when six players hit .300 and Carl Yastrzemski won the American League batting title at .301. But if 21 players finish at .300 this season, the figure would be the fewest since 1985 (when there were 20).

We know the mound isn't likely to be dropped lower than 10 inches, and apparently no other changes are in sight to help a hitter's chances of reaching .300. But something can be done to make today's hitter feel a little more special.

We just have to adjust, just as hitters are expected to do against pitchers. Specifically, we can adjust our expectations to reflect the times.

We need to compare the best batting averages from 2000 — when offense was at an all-time high, thanks at least in part to the prevalence of performance-enhancing drugs in the game — with the averages of today, with pitching strong and PED testing rigorous. In 2000, 30% of all major league players with 400 plate appearances finished with a .300 batting average or better. So in 2014, if a hitter ranks in the top 30% of batting averages, why shouldn't he be considered the equivalent of a .300 hitter from 15 seasons ago?

To qualify for that top 30% this season, a hitter needs to be at .283.

"It's like .280 is the new .300, right?" says San Diego Padres manager Bud Black, whose team had a .226 batting average entering the week, which would be one of the five lowest by a team since the mound was lowered following the 1968 season. "I can see that."

"Your premise sounds about right," says Chris Correa, director of baseball development for the St. Louis Cardinals. "There are those of us who grew up in the game when a .300 hitter was a good hitter. But today, a .280, .285 hitter is a good hitter. It's not that a .350 on-base (percentage) is good now, it's more like .335."

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Changing standards

You just need to look at some of the players hitting between .280 and .285 to see the validity in Correa's point: Boston Red Sox second baseman Dustin Pedroia, Cardinals third baseman Matt Carpenter, Cincinnati Reds third baseman Todd Frazier, San Francisco Giants right fielder Hunter Pence, Milwaukee Brewers center fielder Carlos Gomez and Baltimore Orioles center fielder Adam Jones qualify for the new .300. Every one of them was an All-Star this year.

And don't let them tell you they're not aware of their average.

"I'm hitting .283, .284," Frazier said last week when asked if he knew what his batting average was. "Of course I know. It's on the (score)board every game."

Told that if he finishes at .284 it could be viewed as a .300 season, Frazier shook his head. "My high school coach always said to set your goals higher than you expect to reach," he said.

Yes, but if he finishes at the new .300 - Frazier entered Friday at exactly .280 - he added, "I won't be upset."

Neither would Carpenter, one of the top leadoff men in the majors. No one expected Carpenter to duplicate his breakout 2013 when he led the majors in runs and tied for the lead in hits in his first season as an everyday player. But though his batting average has dropped from .318 to .278 entering Friday, he doesn't think his play has.

"I feel similar, but batting average is hard to equate into the way you're actually swinging the bat," he said last week. "Last night, for example, I hit the ball hard twice but right at people.

"Last year, I could hit the ball softly, but it would be away from somebody."

Good or bad luck aside, teams have changed the way they judge hitters.

Teams typically base player evaluations on what is the league average, and the league average is always changing. This year, the major league-wide ERA is 3.78. In 2000, the Baltimore Orioles' Mike Mussina posted a 3.79 ERA and was considered one of the American League's top starters, finishing sixth in Cy Young Award voting.

"Look at it like this: If you have a team with average offense, average defense, average pitching, it should get about 81 wins," Correa says. "What that average means is different, depending on the context. There are lots of theories as to why offense is down, but the reality is that somebody hitting .260 with a .320 on-base percentage and .400 slugging is actually an above-average player today.

"You put together a team with a lot of those guys, you're going to do better than 81 wins on average. That would not have been the case 15 years ago."

Or even five years ago. In 2009, the last year before batting averages began to decline annually, the major league slash line (batting average/on-base percentage/slugging percentage) was .262/.333/.418. While that line was down from the .270/.345/.437 in 2000, the 2009 season was a hitters' haven compared with this season's .252/.315/.388.

Not since 1972, the last season before the DH, has the majors finished with a lower batting average (.244). And that season featured more .300 hitters (23) than 2014.

"I don't really know about comparing all the numbers," Carpenter says. "I just know hitting is at an all-time high in terms of degree of difficulty."

Adjusting our standards won't make hitting any easier. But Carpenter should be able to find comfort in knowing that his .283 batting average really is like hitting .300 — the new .300 anyway.