January 2018 Plug-In Electric Vehicle Sales Report Card

Positive news for the EV segment as usual. January proves sales just keep getting better and better.

January marks 28th month of consecutive year-over-year sales gains* for plug-in vehicles. This was yet another impressive run, albeit close. Though many models were down in sales, the month turned out to pull ahead of last year’s figures. The new year will only bring more positive news, along with some new models to make it all a bit more interesting.

We expected the potential for a slight gain this January over last year’s numbers, at some 13,000 plug-ins sold. Sadly, our estimates didn’t quite pan out. However, January 2018 still exceeded 2017’s numbers with an estimated total of ~12,049 plug-ins sold.

Plug-in sales for 2017 fell just shy of the 200,000 mark, though that’s not to say that it wasn’t an extremely impressive year as a whole. Hitting that number for 2018 will still happen well before the end of the year. However, there are a huge amount of variables involved in determining where we might be by the end of this year. Will we see 300,000?

One of the biggest variables is the Tesla Model 3. According to Tesla, the automaker could clear the “multiple hundreds of thousands” mark on its own, but that potential has yet to be proven. This month, Model 3 sales were up again and should continue to be, taking the total to an estimated 1,875 deliveries, which sets a new all-time record for January. We should be able to validate this estimate next week when Tesla discloses earnings.

The arrival of new models didn’t show strong sales yet, but that should change moving forward. We expect stronger sales from the Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV, Honda Clarity PHEV, Kia Niro PHEV, and Hyundai IONIQ PHEV in the near future.

The all-new second-generation 2018 Nissan LEAF got off to somewhat of a late start. Unfortunately, only 150 LEAFs were delivered this month. While February may still see low LEAF numbers, the ball should be rolling by March and stronger sales should commence.

Then, there’s the case of GM’s plug-ins. The Volt was down again, as expected. In terms of year-over-year sales, however, Chevrolet Bolt sales were up, but only marginally. Chevy sold 15 more Bolts than last January, mostly due to the model-year changeover. We shall see what the coming months bring for the Bolt.

All-in-all, not the best January by any means, but numbers are up and new models have surfaced. It should still be a very impressive year for the segment.

Questions entering January (with answers in parentheses as they come in)

The Chevrolet Volt has struggled to maintain sales now that the 238-mile Bolt EV has arrived. It has seen deliveries drop year-over-year for nine months in a row. Will strong sales in January end the streak? (Nope.)

On the other side of the coin, the Chevrolet Bolt EV is on a 10-month sales growth streak, will it continue into the new year? (Year-over-year gains are up, but just barely. As far as month-to-month gains, the Bolt didn’t pull it off.)

Will the Tesla Model 3 prove “huge” numbers yet, or will we have to wait another month or more? (Not huge, but definite progress. Tesla reports again in a few days, so we should be able to get a more solid handle on the situation.)

Will Tesla Model S and Model X sales be impacted by the rise in Model 3 deliveries? (Yes. Model S and X sales are low this month while Model 3 sales are up. However, keep in mind that this is simply an observation based on a correlation. There are many other variables to consider (See Tesla recaps). Last January, Tesla’s U.S. sales weren’t much better for the S and X. Adding the 3 this year brings the estimated total to 3,375, which is more than double last year’s total (1,650).

Has the Nissan LEAF actually arrived, and, if so, in what kind of volume? (It has arrived in low volume. 150 LEAFs were moved in January)

How will the Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV fare in its second month (first full month) of sales? (300 deliveries, up from 99 in December 2017 )

Willthe Toyota Prius Prime continue to impress after its strong year-end push? (Yes. Toyota delivered 1,496 Primes for the month of January, up 5.1% from last January’s figures)

In the continuing battle of “new 2018 offerings that disappointingly aren’t stocked so well”, who will manage to sell more – the Hyundai Ioniq Electric,Volvo XC60 PHEV, Volvo S90 T8 PHEV or the new Mini Countryman Plug-In? (The Mini takes this one home with 127 sales)

Will Honda manage to keep up with newfound demand for the Clarity PHEV and secure another significant sales boost, meaning it will find a new home in our recaps for next month? (Sorta. The Clarity PHEV passed 500 once again, but it was close [594]. We may wait another month or two before securing it a spot in our recaps.)

The above question can also be asked about the Honda Clarity BEV. Will it eclipse 500 again? (No. The BEV only had 203 deliveries.)

We’ve removed the VW e-Golf from our recaps due to weak sales. Will deliveries continue to tank? (Yes. e-Golf sales are down another 46.4% at 178 for January.)

Will BMW be able to continue its aggressive surge after its major butt-kicking in November and December? (BMW fared okay for January with over 1,000 plug-ins delivered, but nothing like the last few months.)

How will the Kia Niro PHEV and Hyundai IONIQ PHEV fare in their initial (partial) month of U.S. sales? (Kia proved much better than Hyundai with 155 Niro PHEVs delivered to Hyundai’s 22.)

Also of note: Toyota sold 213 Mirai in January (up 146.4% from last January’s 83)

Last update: February 5, 2018 at 5:55 PM

*Regarding “year of monthly sales” improvements: We know someone is going to look at the chart and say, “hey, only ~11,467 sales were made in May of 2016, when 11,540 were logged in 2015! What gives InsideEVs?” What gives is – through an odd scheduling quirk, only 24 selling days were reported in May 2016 (versus 26 in 2015)

Below Chart: An individual run-down of each vehicle’s monthly result and some analysis behind the numbers. (Previous year’s monthly results can be found on our fixed Scorecard page here)

Individual Plug-In Model Sales Recap For Major Models:

(Limited to vehicles with ~500 sales/or potential for 500 sales in a given month)

Next Generation, 2017 Chevrolet Volt

Chevrolet Volt:

The Chevrolet Volt entering January found itself continuing an unfortunate streak of nine consecutive months of year-over-year losses.

2017 fourth-quarter sales alone were down some 3,000 units from the previous year.

With January sales in, we can now make it ten in a row, as 713 were sold, some 55.7% lower than a year ago (1,611).

It has become more than obvious that the Volt’s stablemate, the Chevy Bolt EV, is stealing the Volt’s thunder. For as many months as the Volt has been down and dropping, the Bolt has been up and gaining. Keep in mind, this is definitely not a bad thing, it’s just different … and, in all honesty … better. It means less gas burned!

Additionally, the Toyota Prius Prime is a substantial and successful contender, the Honda Clarity PHEV has arrived and is selling very well, and this month, the Kia Niro PHEV and Hyundai IONIQ PHEV join the club.

Chevrolet Bolt EV – looking to make its mark for yet another year

Chevrolet Bolt EV:

The Chevrolet Bolt EV was technically available nationwide in August, but few copies landed in those 30-odd new states during that month.

This began to change in September. More evenly spread inventory led to rapid Bolt EV sales growth, notching 2,632 sales during that month.

October brought 2,781 deliveries, but November took that number even higher, as 2,987 sales were made. For December, GM eclipsed the 3K threshold by moving 3,227 Chevrolet Bolts, finishing 2017 with a 10-month streak of sales gains.

January continues to impress, with 1,177 Bolts delivered. However, this is only a 1.3% gain over last January’s 1,162.

2018 Nissan LEAF gets a new look, more range!

Nissan LEAF:

The Nissan LEAF entered January as the oldest offering on the U.S. market – going on 86 months now.

And as everyone knows by now, it has been replaced by the updated 2018 Nissan LEAF, which debuted in September (full details here).

Is the new LEAF better?

Yes, in every way, including ~43 more miles range (up to 150 miles from 107) for $700 less. Not enough? A ~225 mile, higher performance trim level arrives later in 2018 (as a 2019 MY car).

Unfortunately, Nissan USA is apparently not as capable as Nissan Japan, which managed to launch the new LEAF as planned in October (to some very impressive results), while the U.S. (and Europe) had to wait until January. This wouldn’t be a problem if the wind-down of the first-gen 2017 model wasn’t pre-planned to be defunct by October.

The resulting gap between the ‘new’ and ‘old’ left Nissan with almost no remaining inventory, which caused sales in October to drop to just 213 deliveries, ending an impressive eight-month run of four-digit results. In November, that number dropped further, to 175 sales. December, the best-selling month for EVs, saw only 102 LEAFs delivered. We’re pretty sure Nissan is wishing it had done things differently, as the LEAF closed out 2017 down some 20% overall.

Fast forward to today, when the LEAF was supposed to have been rolling off of lots last month, and that’s not quite how it worked out. Cars didn’t begin arriving until recently in small numbers and they were pegged for reservation holders. Nissan told us it could be mid-February before another shipment of LEAFs become available at dealers for new buyers. Hopefully, by March, we’ll be able to report healthy sales figures for the all-new LEAF.

In January, Nissan delivered 150 LEAFs, down 80.6% from last January’s 772.

After setting a new high of 1,908 in May, it was expected that with deeper inventory the Prime would be headed much higher.

Unfortunately, that didn’t happen, and a ‘doubling’ of stock (to around 2,000 units), only resulted in 1,899 sales in September. An additional 50% gain in inventory for October (up to ~3,000) actually resulted in a lower number – 1,626 sales.

For November, inventory levels stayed fairly strong, averaging slightly more than October, which translated into better sales, but still a relatively disappointing 1,834 deliveries, given the higher expectations for the year’s end.

For December, the Prime saw a record sales month, with 2,420 sold. This put the 2017 total at 20,936, landing Toyota’s plug-in the fourth place spot overall for the year as a whole.

Toyota delivered 1,496 Primes for the month of January, up 5.1% from last January’s figures.

The Toyota Prius Prime not only features its own unique look, but 25 miles of all-electric range.

How has the Toyota found a selling range of ~2,000 units a month? The plug-in Toyota is priced right – from $27,950, which after the $4,500 federal credit gives the Prime a selling price of $23,450. This price-point comes in at over $1,000 cheaper than the base hybrid Prius, which should translate into long-term sales success if the EV can remain well stocked.

BMW i3

BMW i3:

The BMW i3 entered the U.S. market with a bang in 2014, but it’s too bad that the initial fireworks display of sales back then was the peak – we just didn’t know it at the time.

For 2017, BMW i3 sales were a mixed bag.

Sales got off to a rough start, with just 182 moved in January, and 318 in February. The tune changed drastically in March (which given the i3’s track record is not all that surprising) with 703 sales made, a 118% gain over March of 2016. However, for several months after March, sales hovered around 500-600 units, until October when almost 700 were yet again moved.

For November…trashbags, as the company recalled all of its i3 vehicles due to a safety issue (for people who chose to NOT wear their seat belts if you can believe that) and put a ‘stop sale’ on the model for a time. Just 283 i3 vehicles were sold during a month that is historically one of the best in terms of EV sales.

Quite frankly (and notwithstanding this recall), the i3 as it stands today is likely too expensive for plug-in vehicle buyers. So, if BMW wants to sell the EV in volumes like it did in the past, it’s going to have to sharpen its pencil considerably.

In late August, BMW proved it still really didn’t understand the issue behind lackluster sales or the i3 itself, by releasing a new, slightly sportier trim level – the i3s (full details here). The car gets some new styling details, some wider tires and some extra performance (+10 kW), but what the public really wants is a longer range option and a price cut (the new i3s is ~10% more expensive in most markets).

To come to an estimated monthly number, we don’t simply take the quarterly estimate given by Tesla and divide it by 3and hope it all works out. This is surely not how it works in the real world. We simply report from the data we accumulate ourselves, including first-hand accounts available from the factory and from the community itself, and the number is what it is (see below).

Revisions/disclaimer to the accuracy of prior estimates: The 2016 Model S chart has been adjusted (via U.S. Q3 data leaked directly from Tesla) by 469 units in Q3, and 525 units in Q4. The 2015 chart was adjusted (one time) by 498 units to compensate for confirmed full-year numbers. The 2014 sales chart was adjusted (one time – again after the end of the full year of estimates) 611 units to compensate for full-year numbers. While past success is no guarantee of future results, InsideEVs is quite proud of its sales tracking for the Model S over the years.

That being said, we only estimate this number because Tesla does not, and to not put a number on Model S sales would be to paint an even more inaccurate overall picture of EV sales. Despite our fairly accurate track record, we’re not analysts or portfolio managers and we don’t own any positions in Tesla the company.

While Tesla continues to conform to a familiar quarterly pattern of prioritizing international production early in the quarter before transitioning to domestic output, there has been somewhat of a change/reshuffling of priorities we have seen this time around.

The name of that priority is Model 3.

As we mentioned in 2017, it appeared Tesla knew fairly early that volume production would not be close to guidance by the end of Q3, and quickly refocused in an attempt to make that a reality by the end of Q4 (investors need to be kept happy we suppose).

The end result is that production energies and skilled labor normally assigned to Tesla’s original EVs are being diverted from the Model S and X to getting the Model 3 back on course.

This past month it appears that little Model S and X production has been completed as of yet and inventory is very low. Even orders for North America (for the S and X) seem to be down, which makes sense with the focus being on the Model 3. Much of the S and X production we do see started mid-month, so this doesn’t impact January sales. It looks like most people that ordered and S or X in past mid-December are looking at March deliveries.

This could be due in part to the Model 3 as stated above (Tesla could be focused more on net sales than setting a specific S and X target), but international deliveries also play a role. All-in-all, we may see Model S and X sales flat or even lower over the course of 2018.

With all of this considered, it’s becoming increasingly clear Tesla is picking and choosing how it will skillfully hit its delivery targets. This means that sales figures for the Model S for this December were down a touch from last year’s number. For January, we estimate that Tesla delivered 800 Model S vehicles in the U.S. last month, compared to last January’s 900.

Tesla Model X

Tesla Model X:

Like the Model S, Tesla does not report Model X sales, so we do our best to estimate monthly results for North America using all the data at our disposal (For more info on that, check out our disclaimer for the Model S)

Historical accuracy/Sales Update (Oct 11th):

Tesla’s recently leaked U.S. sales data for Q3 2016 put U.S. deliveries at 5,428. Our own Q3 estimate was 5,800 for North America, which includes Canada (which ended Q3 with 389 registrations for the quarter), meaning 5,787 were actually sold. Though we don’t attest to being experts, we were only off by 13 units in Q3.

Previously in Q2 2016, Tesla reported 4,625 Model X deliveries. Our estimated scorecard got within about ~55 units of the actual number (accounting for just a handful of international Model X deliveries). In Q1 we were within ~200 units.

Since we don’t want to bore you by explaining the same thing twice, have a look at the Tesla Model S recap (above) and then come back here.

All done? Good … welcome back.

Like the Model S, Model X production was sacrificed late in the quarter as Tesla attempted to prove itself more capable of building the Model 3. Tesla directed to some 10% less production of the Model S & X in Q4. Keep in mind, however, that all cars and regions are not created equal.

While the Tesla Model S has proven itself to be the more “in demand” offering of the two, the Model X is definitely the higher margin EV. Thus, as Tesla finds itself (unfortunately) not likely to be able to satisfy all demand for the year-end rush, it will be satisfying its demand for higher margin cars.

Nutshell: If you live in the U.S. and ordered a top-of-the-line Model X P100D in September and also a base Model S 75D, your Model X likely went into production early in November, and it’s now sitting in your driveway, whereas that Model S (or base Model X) was still waiting for production, or just entered Tesla’s production queue with a delivery ETA just before Christmas.

For this reason, and this reason only, we estimated the Model X outsold the Model S in November with some 1,875 deliveries.

For the month of December, it looked as though the situation was back to normal, aside from the addition of ramped up Model 3 production.

January seems to be back on track as well (despite the long-winded explanation above), although deliveries appear to be down a bit from last year’s numbers (750). We estimate last month’s Model X sales at 700.

This is the first Tesla Model 3 (#001), naturally, it arrived in black – lord of all colors. Want to buy it any other way? $1,000 premium fine for bad taste.

Tesla Model 3:

Just ~16 months after orders opened, and ~10 years since it was first announced (then known as the “Bluestar”), the first Model 3s were delivered on July 28, 2017! One can check out the full delivery ceremony and all the newly released specs (220-310 miles range, 0-60 mph in 5.1-5.6 seconds) on our full recap here.

As with Model S & X sales, Tesla is not planning to release monthly Model 3 sales in the U.S. at this point in time. Until then, we’ll do our best to estimate monthly results for North America using all the data at our disposal (For more info on that, check out our Model S disclaimer).

Thankfully, in the early days (Q3 2017), pegging Model 3 sales in the U.S. was a pretty easy task, as the complete delivery volume for July took place live at the July 28th delivery event in Fremont, California. The first 30 cars were delivered to Tesla employees/stakeholders in the U.S., and one could almost count the individual cars as they left Tesla’s Fremont factory in August.

For September, we had Tesla’s quarterly disclosure that put deliveries at 222 cumulatively for the quarter, meaning about 117 were delivered. Truthfully, the monthly numbers were meaningless in Q3. Instead, all eyes were on production. While the company guided to some 1,630+ to be produced, just 260 were built.

Of course, much chatter arose as to why. Tesla generically blamed “production bottlenecks.” The company, looking to re-assure, said at the time:

“We understand what needs to be fixed and we are confident of addressing the manufacturing bottleneck issues in the near-term.”

From our perspective, Tesla realized fairly early in July that the September goals would not be met. Following the future ‘S-Curve’ goal into year’s end was going to be problematic. It appears from that moment on, rather than working on”near-term” production and deliveries, Tesla has been working more proactively with the main goal of simply being able to show volume production by year’s end – something originally targeted for the end of September.

While this thought process was never officially confirmed by the company, a quasi-confirmation came with the admission that Model S and X production would be off 10% in Q4 2017. Additionally, we are now seeing the effects of manpower being transferred into transitioning the Model 3 production from “burst” output (or start and stop if you will) to a more consistent, ordered structure.

While it’s only speculation on our part (as it has been for the past three to four months while watching the happenings around the car), we felt Tesla was desperate to provide confirmation of a “decent” sustained production level for the Model 3 by end out the year … and we were right.

To that end, progress to a certain degree was definitely made in November, as more cars than ever did actually find employee driveways (and orders also opened to the public mid-month … well at least to the first batch of locals anyway). Though Tesla only delivered an estimated 345 Model 3s in November, this number was a notable jump from prior months.

Tesla publicly reported delivering 1,060 Model 3s in December, for a grand total of 1,772 on the year. Additionally, Tesla dialed down the target of 5K a week, to 2.5K now, and set the 5K production level back to June (essentially a six-month delay at this point).

While Model S and X sales were both down a handful for January, based on our estimations, Model 3 sales were up again compared to last month’s numbers (one would sure hope so!) However, they’re not up as high as projected or expected.

We’re pegging January Model 3 sales at an estimated 1,875.

Of course, Tesla could have easily manufactured 3,000 or more Model 3s last month, but deliveries may tell a different story.

Chrysler Pacific Hybrid (plug-in)

Chrysler Pacifica Hybrid:

Editor’s note: FCA does not split out sales data for the plug-in Pacifica, so we try our best to estimate that number from month-to-month until hard/verifiable data is gleaned.

The much-anticipated plug-in extended range passenger van arrived in January, albeit in stealth, stuttered, and very limited in fashion.

Due to some odd quirks with production timing and plant scheduling, we had an on/off/on/off/quasi-on start for the Pacifica Hybrid as it relates to deliveries. Then there was QC holds, then launch delays.

Finally, the Pacifica Hybrid officially arrived on “Earth Day” April 22, 2017, and customers enjoyed a good three to four weeks of arriving inventory … until the wheels fell off (not literally).

By June 10, 2017, a nationwide recall was announced, and all 1,677 Pacificas sold in the U.S. and Canada had to head back to Chrysler to get a faulty diode replaced that could cause loss of power when in operation. We won’t get into all the details from there (check out our June sales report for more info).

Thankfully, by September, the kinks appeared to have been worked out just in time to see its Windsor, Ontario assembly plant go down for the entire month of October for pre-scheduled updating of the facility to comply with U.S. regulatory/safety tooling on the Grand Caravan.

Nonetheless, customer orders and dealer stock are once again flowing and the 2018 model has arrived. For December, we estimated720 deliveries, up 150 units from November’s estimates.

With January being a low-volume month, we put Chrysler Pacifica Hybrid sales estimates at 375.

2017 BMW 330e – Like All Plug-Ins Sold In The U.S., It Wisely Is Offered In Black

BMW 330e:

Arriving on the U.S. market nearly two years ago was the BMW 330e, which is theplug-in hybrid version of the company’s quintessential 3 Series offering.

While the 330e (from $44,695 including DST), physically arrived in March 2016 in a token amount, it took BMW almost a year to stock the plug-in very robustly.

Like almost all iPerformance offerings last November, the BMW 330e reached a near 2017 high during the month, selling 477 copies. December’s total hit 363 sales.

For January, we report 101 33oe’s sold.

Given the still relatively limited inventory of the 330e on BMW lots, there is a lot of upward sales potential for the car. However, as it has now been on offer for 22 months in the U.S., maybe BMW really doesn’t care to displace any more petrol 3 Series transactions.

As for the specs, the final EPA ‘real world’ range rating of just 14 all-electric miles (via a 7.6 kWh battery – 5.7 usable) was a disappointment for some hoping for a number closer to 20, but with a 75 mph top speed in “Max eDrive” it’s a capable offering (featuring a 2-liter inline turbo-four), which should satisfy the traditional BMW crowd and see strong sales.

The electric motor delivers 87 horsepower with a maximum of 184 pound-feet of torque. When combined with the petrol engine, the total output jumps to 248 horsepower, with a peak torque of 310 pound-feet. This all allows for a 5.9-second zero-to-60-mph sprint and a top speed of 140 mph.

Audi A3 Sportback e-tron

Audi A3 Sportback e-tron:

After selling ~400 copies a month in Q1 2017 (387, 400, and 414), Audi slipped in Q2 and Q3.

The reason for the failure to stock and sell?

VW Group likes to allocate a certain number of model year plug-in vehicles to the U.S., and if they run out … oh well. This was exactly the case for the Audi over the summer and into the fall of 2017.

How bad did it get?

We could only find 17 examples of the A3 e-tron at dealers nationwide when we did an inventory in October 2017. Leading us to say, “Hey Audi, make with the 2018s already!”

Fortunately, they seem to have heard us, as the first handful did indeed arrive in November, but that was a literal handful.

For December, sales improved significantly, to 270 deliveries, from November’s puny 38. However, this is less than half of the 589 delivered in December of 2016, and down to 2,877 for 2017 as a whole, compared to 2016’s 4,280.

Unfortunately, A3 Sportback e-tron sales dropped in January to 145 total deliveries, down 63% from last January’s 387.

The A3 e-tron has a low price inside Audi’s lineup. $38,900 gets you the Audi badge, 8.8 kWh of battery – good for 17-odd miles of real-world driving … and a federal credit of $4,158, which is significant because this brings the e-tron package down to within $3,500 of the base MSRP of the A3.

Another reason for decent sales numbers on the A3 e-tron; you can’t get the “Sportback” version of the Audi in any other trim level in the U.S.

Ford Fusion Energi

Ford Fusion Energi:

The refreshed 2017 Ford Fusion Energi (details) was a fairly big hit in 2016, showing marked improvements throughout the year.

Heading into 2017, the Fusion Energi crossed back into “four-digit land” in March, as 1,002 Energis were moved … joining a club of just five others at that level. The month of May showed a repeat of such numbers, but sales have stayed in the 700s ever since.

For November, that number was 731. December sales were up a touch, with 875 sold, for 9,632 deliveries in 2017. Fusion Energi sales are down from the last few months, at 640 for January.

Looking at the inventory in the past, it was easy to see why (and how) so many of the new Fusion plug-ins have been sold. The Fusion Energi often won the crown for the “most stocked” EV in the U.S., until Chevy got crazy with the Volt and Bolt EV.

With that said, Ford had been struggling to keep production on pace with demand (or rather managing inventory lower). After having almost 3,000 in stock in mid-June 2017, that number fell below 2,000 units by the start of September, as the industry-wide summer shutdown/changeover to MY 2018 was underway. This inventory level flatlined through the end of 2017.

2018 BMW 530e

BMW 530e:

Welcome to the “big time” BMW 5 Series! By “big time” we mean selling more than 500 copies and getting an individual recap on our sales scorecard.

Originally, we had expected that the BMW X5 40e would be dropping off the list near the end of 2017, but the SUV surprised us with strong November and December sales (more on that below), keeping itself on the list for another season.

Back to the 530e.

The plug-in hybrid’s $52,400 starting price point makes it the cheapest of the 5 Series to own, and thus a strong seller. After crossing 500 sales in both September and October, an amazing 872 were moved in November, followed by 706 in December – shooting the plug-in BMW up our sales chart.

For January, deliveries slide down significantly to 224.

x5 xDrive40e

BMW X5 xDrive40e:

The BMW X5 plug-in had an unexpectedly strong debut in the U.S. in 2016, which only got stronger over the year.

In fact, the electrified BMW SUV had seen sales as high as 876 units in 2016 (August 2016).

Then 2017 happened, and sales disappointed. During the first 10 months, numbers ranged from the 260s to the 480s.

With just 329 sales in October, and 333 in September, we confidently predicted the X5 plug-in would be leaving our recap list in 2018 … then November happened. The month brought an all-time best 929 deliveries, which made the BMW the sixth best selling plug-in for the November! In December, sales were down, but still strong at 832, pushing the just out of the top ten for the year as a whole.

BMW X5 plug-in sales plummet in January to 261.

While inventory is still low, we’re happy to be able to report that the 2018s are now steadily arriving in volume. Hopefully, enough plug-in SUVs will eventually arrive that BMW can once again make a push to achieve the four-digit mark!

Why do you expect little demand for the Model 3? Please share your rationale. With all of the pre-orders, and with the full $7500 tax credit likely in effect through at least 3Q 2018 for Tesla, I don’t see any demand issues.

Volt sales that low, in year-3 of gen-2 with a $7,500 tax-credit, makes being profitable a moot point.

As for making a claim of Prime not being profitable, without providing an proof whatsoever, is clearly an attempt to change the topic. Augmentation of Prius to add a plug and larger battery-pack for that MSRP is feasible. There’s no reason to believe the FUD.

Toyota’s first year for Prime resulted in 50,000 worldwide sales, despite a large chunk of the United States not having any inventory. The second should show strong growth as rollout expands to reach more potential customers.

Hi Stephen, Per “We’re pegging January Model 3 sales at an estimated 1,875.” – I am curious about that Peg on the Wall you stuck in there! What kind of Math, Data, collection, and Estimating Processes you used, would be nice to hear about.

If we are to believe Elon, when he said some 800 Model 3’s were in the category of Produced, but on their way to Customers, at December 31st, 2017, and that they made nearly 800 in their last Week of December, it seems that if they only made them in the last week of December and missed getting them to customers, the ‘Shipping Paperwork, and Delivery Process was likely around a week long after production. January should be mostly the same, with possibilities of up to 10 days.

So – It should be possible to deliver those ‘In Transit’ Vehicles by January 14th, one would likely think. So – it seems you are thinking they only made and delivered another 1,015 beyond that?

Let’s work that math – my way for a second:
500 in 2018 Week 1, Plus 600 in Week 2, and 700 in Week 3 Produced = 1,800 More Produced in the first 3 weeks of January (Pretty Small Numbers – compared to the Last full 7 Working Days of December – at “793” Model 3’s Produced).

Is it so unlikely that it would take more than the next 7-10 Days to deliver those Model 3’s that were produced in the first 3 weeks of the month, as well as the ones ‘In Transit’ in December (860) – For a Total of 1,800 + 860 = 2,660?

I Think that should be a pretty Starvation Minimum, for Production completed in Deliveries at the moment!

Sure – a Bit Optimistic, but if they are pushing for 2,500 Per week by 12 Weeks in, and Ended the year at nearly 800 per week, even if you drop back to a start of 600 per week, over 12 Weeks, there should be a regular increased capacity figured into the mix.

From 600 to 2,500 – is 1,900; Which over 12 Weeks is an increase of 150 per week. Over 13 weeks = 146 Per Week.

Sure – it is not linear, precisely, but The Workers won’t likely be able to do anything in a Sudden Burst, to jump from one week at 600 – to another at 1,200, like Robots Might Be able to do, so I figure a moderate, but steady increasing rate, of an extra 140-150 Per week.

In my Math shown, above, I only counted for about 65% of that increased Production Rate, so – I don’t think it was overly optimistic, either.

We continue to want to be optimistic, though Tesla hasn’t proven such potential. We should have a better idea when they report next week. Had we been as optimistic as many for the last several months, we would have looked like fools. Tesla was supposed to be at 5,000/week in December and clearly, nothing has gone as planned. It’s merely an estimate based on plenty of factors, including the automaker’s ability to get the vehicles in customers hands. We shall see next week.

Not speaking for Steven, but I came to similar estimates based on the delays that lasted into December and the estimated delivery times many people were receiving after configuring their model 3. From what I typed in another post:

I am basing my estimates on posts I am seeing by future owners around the net, such as on Tesla Motors club.

A lot of people received their configuration invitation in mid-January. And are getting delivery estimates for 4-6 weeks after that.

There were a lot of delays in December as we know. So if the delivery takes 4+ weeks from the start of production, the December delays would have continued to hamper January deliveries.

Tesla did hit some higher rates of production at the end of December, but they were brief.

But! Based on the large number of people who received configuration invitations this month, I think February or march is where sales really take off.

Agreed Wade. Much the same perspective here. Much of what was being produced in January likely won’t be in driveways until February or even March, aside from perhaps the first week or so, if Tesla pulls it off. We’re excited to hear what the automaker has to share next week.

It seems strange to estimate Model 3 sales that low. There were around 800 left over from December, plus 1 week off, but production was another, say, 3,000, but 1.5 weeks of inventory in transport. Seems the estimate should be closer to 2,500.

It’s a combination of stocking their stores and the last production week being ineligible for delivery (transit and waiting for customers to schedule delivery appointments). Id say that adds up to about 1200.

There is virtually no stocking of stores for the Model 3… they have around 5 display models. Transport is the wild card as they use slower and much cheaper rail for east of the Mississippi deliveries, but still, the estimate seems low.

“…it’s a mixture of incompetence, hubris, inexperience and desperation…”

Oh, for a minute there I thought you were explaining why nearly everything you post is so completely wrong. I mean, one would think you’d occasionally get something right just by accident. That is, if you were not trolling.

So – It should be possible to deliver those ‘In Transit’ Vehicles by January 14th, one would likely think. So – it seems you are thinking they only made and delivered another 1,015 beyond that?

Let’s work that math – my way for a second:
500 in 2018 Week 1, Plus 600 in Week 2, and 700 in Week 3 Produced = 1,800 More Produced in the first 3 weeks of January (Pretty Small Numbers – compared to the Last full 7 Working Days of December – at “793” Model 3’s Produced).

Is it so unlikely that it would take more than the next 7-10 Days to deliver those Model 3’s that were produced in the first 3 weeks of the month, as well as the ones ‘In Transit’ in December (860) – For a Total of 1,800 + 860 = 2,660?

I Think that should be a pretty Starvation Minimum, for Production completed in Deliveries at the moment!”

It’s been possible to find 2018s in searches on places like cars.com for a week now, including with real pictures over the last few days. That means that as mentioned above, reservation holders should be getting their cars now, even if sales to the wider general public haven’t started yet.

Sad to see the Volt numbers dropping so much. It would fine if all of the losses were added to Bolt sales but it seems that the customer base for GM’s electric vehicles isn’t growing much but rather is just shifting.

It was fairly predictable that the Prius Prime would begin to outsell the Volt even with less range, less performance and only 4 seats to the Volt’s 4 1/2 seats. The Prius brand is strong.

I would bet the bank on it that if Toyota would have come out with a 200+ mile range all-electric Prius EV it would also draw most of the Prime customers away as well as many regular Prius customers just like the Bolt seems to be doing to the Volt.

I wouldn’t be at all surprised if GMs lackluster commitment to EVs, them failing to help build the market, is causing folks to look elsewhere. I know it’s having that effect on me. I love my Gen1 Volt, but I get disgusted every time I see GM announce a new diesel where the could have and should have used that opportunity to deploy their Voltec platform (Malibu, Equinox, Colorado, Cruze). And to see them fail to put Voltec into the new Regal TourX equally causes me distress. GM just does not care about building the EV market, content to hedge and attempt to be a fast follower. So much potential squandered. GM will not retain EV market share if they are content to let others lead.

Also, same could be said about F or FCA let alone toyota or honda. The big ol’ carmakers should be (wallet)punished by potential customers for this, it’s not only cowardice but also detrimental to our health.

philip d:
Toyota will “come out with a 200+ mile
range all-electric Prius EV” as soon as they’ll finish developing dense enough Lithum metal solid state batteries, and bring down cell production costs to the point to make it both technically and economically possible without relying on some giga-subsidies.

So, you’re saying that Toyota is going to wait until ~2028, when they can fully compete with and even undercut the price of Tesla cars… of 2018. 😉

I believe a similar “we own the market, so we don’t need to worry about this upstart using newer tech” strategy was tried by Blackberry when the iPhone entered the market, and that worked so well for them.

Warren – “Model S, and Model X are now first generation plugins with falling sales.” Are you also so new to thsi website and the Monthly reports that you have not seen – Tesla Shipps out much of their production overseas for the 1st 2 months of each Quarter, so thos Markets can Also Get their Deliveries completed by the End of the Quarter?

This website Tally – is US Sales only, so it always lists low sales for each Quarters Model S & Model X 1st & 2nd Months, then – Bounces on Month 3! that is their Routine!

Yeah, I agree, this is PR spin. I believe Model S & X market is nearing saturation. How many people really have $100k to spend on a car? Sales are dropping so they move 10% of employees to Model 3 production. and don’t want to admit MS & MX sales are softening.

Production != deliveries. There’s a lag time between production and deliveries. For S and X, it’s about regional allocation. Almost all of the production in the beginning of a quarter for the S and the X are for overseas deliveries, so January is almost all whatever is left over from Q4. With the record deliveries in Q4 and lower in-transit numbers, the slightly lower January numbers makes sense.

Again, it is foolhardy to read too much into early monthly sales of the S/X which is why Tesla doesn’t release them.

Tesla has a single production line for the S and the X. The body in white is separate, but there is a single general assembly line. Therefore, an X made is a S that cannot be made. The overall number is therefore what really matters there, and they are limiting production because they took some of their 3rd shift and moved them to 3 production. The product mix has moved towards more balance between the S and the X. We don’t really know the depths of demand, but certainly as the federal tax credit starts to wind down for Tesla this year, demand will ramp up significantly.

As usual, serial anti-Tesla troll Some Troll Out There desperately tries to downplay Tesla’s many achievements through his whiney, repetitive FUD.

Since he didn’t do any research on the matter let me enlighten him that Musk already announced that numbers would be down for the S/X this quarter due to the emphasis on ramping up the Model 3.

Now you may be bitter that the Model 3 and Tesla will now start to dominate EV sales going forward I expect every increasingly desperate posts here from the shills, shorters and haters trying to wish it away.

I’m not bitter at all. You however seem extremely bitter when people post facts you don’t like, coming up with nothing but abuse against anyone not toeing the fanboi line.

That Tesla would wind down their most profitable line of cars to produce their “cheap” cars makes sense to no one except a Tesla kool-aid drinker who believe anything Saint Elon says. Reality is that the model S is getting a lot tougher to sell and that is the real reason why production is turned down.

It’s certainly true that Tesla appears to have about reached market saturation for the Models S and X, as the various promotional schemes it has done over the past year show. Schemes like selling MS75 and MX75 units as electronically limited 60 kWh cars, as a sales promotion.

But, “Some Troll out there”, you kinda lost track of which Big Lie you were trying to promote. (Sure gets confusing keeping track of all your lies, doesn’t it?) The saturation of the market for the MS and MX is precisely why Tesla has reassigned some of its work force to ramping up production for the Model 3. That is directly contrary to one of the Big Lies you parroted in your earlier comment.

Since Tesla’s goal is disrupt a technologically stagnant industry wedded to fossil fuels and compel the movement to sustainable transportation they have wisely decided to branch out beyond the large luxury class that they have so thoroughly disrupted to your dismay.

“That Tesla would wind down their most profitable line of cars to produce their ‘cheap’ cars makes sense to no one except a Tesla kool-aid drinker who believe anything Saint Elon says.”

That Tesla would concentrate on ramping up production of its new model, one for which there is enormously greater demand than Tesla can currently satisfy, rather than on the two older models for which demand is already being met or possibly even exceeded, is something that every person who’s not insane can understand, and only hard-core Tesla Hater cultists will pretend not to understand.

When Tesla makes a material statement in its Q3 2017 Earnings Report such as:

“…we plan to produce about 10% fewer Model S and Model X in Q4 compared to Q3 because of the reallocation of some of the manufacturing workforce towards Model 3 production.“

…then everyone who’s not a Tesla Hater cultist will certainly have almost infinitely greater reason to believe that’s true than to believe yet another Tesla Hater cultist FUD comment.

Heck! Even a Pessimist could see that Tesla Made 1,800 in the – FIRST 3 WEEKS of January (500 + 600 + 700 = 1,800) + the 860 ‘In Transit’ in December! ( I think Steven Missed counting those, at least!)

Are we really taking longer that 7-10 Days (From Jan. 21st, to Jan. 31st) to get these Model 3’s Delivered? Sure – Ease Coast Deliveries – might be slower, but – they would not likely be the ones delivered from the Week 3 Production!

“Looks like Model 3 is going to take the pole position in January. It just may be the leader for the rest of the year.”

It’s hard to see how the Tesla Model 3 could avoid being the best-seller for every month of this year, and likely next year too.

There was previously a question that it would achieve the #1 position as early as this month; some people thought that wouldn’t happen until February or even March. But going forward, there should not be any real competition until 2020 at the earliest.

However, let’s not forget that most of the competition for the various models of plug-in EVs is not other EVs. Most of the market for EVs is being “stolen” from gasmobiles.

If you want to read about production, then read the individual reports for each model. But we’re not going to get accurate monthly production reports about Tesla cars, since Tesla hides that info as trade secrets.

Can we get some inventory analysis on the Bolt? By my ‘back of a napkin’ math, it hit peak inventory last summer when everyone was howling about lack of demand. Then inventory went down every single month after that. i.e. they were selling more than they were stocking in the US. Given a few hundred each month in Canada/Europe my guesstimate is that they were pumping out about 3000 per month out of the factory with maybe less than 2500 staying in the US. So here in Jan when there’s an expected dropoff in demand, was that also coupled with a lack of inventory recovery? i.e. if inventory did not rise by at least 1000 then it would seem they redirected more to Korea/Canada/Europe. This would then in turn delay the magic 200,000 in the US.

Note: I’m not saying any of that is true. I’m suggesting a topic of an article/update picking that apart.

The 5,000 2018 Bolt allocations in South Korea sold out in THREE HOURS last month. I’m not 100% sure how GM handles overseas allocations (cranks them out as quickly as possible, or strings them out over the year), but if the Bolt factory is still pumping out around 3k a month, that’s almost 2 months of production right there destined for South Korea.

Then you still have the small number of Canadian orders to take care of, and whatever scraps GM still needs to send to Europe for Ampera-E sales.

Perhaps the number of comments I’ve seen about unmet demand for the Bolt EV in Canada gives me a distorted view (since I’m much less likely to read comments from S. Koreans), but I have to wonder if demand there is all that much lower than it is in S. Korea.

Estimated 2017 populations, for comparison:

Canada 35,151,728
S. Korea 50,982,212

Of course, the fact that the entire LG powertrain is made in S. Korea will help demand there, but “green” activism in Canada is pretty high, and there are a lot of Canadians eager to drive plug-in EVs.

LOL! That is todays stupid comment of the day. Bolt sales have been rising month over month for 8 months. They have one down month over month, even thought that month is higher than the January before, and you say that the Bolt isn’t selling well.
Stupid comment.
I don’t like the look of the Bolt, it has moderately uncomfortable front seats and it should be able to charge faster, but is an impressive car.

Model 3 will probably lead the pack for sales. Though a little over 1,800 is pretty disappointing. I mean according to Elon, Tesla was supposed to be building 5k 3’s a WEEK by the end of last year. Now we see that the actual number is barely even 500/week.

Production hell is tough, yo! Especially when you gotta glue together batteries packs by hand!

I guess serial Tesla basher and GM apologist MadBro is still talking about mostly imaginary fit-and-finish issues with the Tesla Model 3, in order to distract from all the very real fit-and-finish issues with the Bolt EV! (Not to mention those front seats — OUCH!)

Haven’t you heard, dude? People who live in glass houses shouldn’t throw stones!

As I see that many fanbois are having a bit of a meltdown because of the low Model 3 delivery estimation so feeling the need to give moral support as it breaks my heart to read this, so:

1/ As written above, Tesla is probably busy stocking their stores and I have no doubt we will see huge sales figures for at least March if not February.
2/ So I am sure their current production numbers are way above this figure.
3/ As Steven said, we will have more info next week so maybe better news.
4/ Likely some very close attention is given to current production as regards quality control . This may delay delivery, right now quality is way more important than quantity.

Also a bit of perspective: even at “low” numbers compared to expectations, Model 3 has already taken over the top of the charts. It would take a huge upset for any model to overtake TM3 for any month from this point forward.

Because most prospective car buyers would like to at least sit in a car, and preferably give it a test drive, before “pulling the trigger” on a buying decision. You can see that reflected in many, many comments from TM3 reservation holders who are putting off converting their reservation to an order until they have at least been able to touch and sit in the car.

It’s all very well to say that Tesla shouldn’t worry about supporting demand for TM3, because they can’t possibly meet existing demand for at least two years. But if Tesla wants people to put off buying a different car in anticipation of buying a TM3, then they need to make demo models available for prospective customers to look at, sit in, and eventually test drive.

“Likely some very close attention is given to current production as regards quality control . This may delay delivery, right now quality is way more important than quantity.”

Even if I wasn’t particularly a fan of Tesla, I would certainly notice how overwhelmingly positive the vast majority of Tesla Model 3 reviews have been, including all of the high-profile reviews we’ve seen so far, about fit-and-finish (F&F) on the car. Tesla really needed to “up its game” for quality control on early production units, after the way the Tesla Hater cultists used a relatively few anecdotal examples of F&F problems with early production Model X’s for a smear campaign against Tesla all across the internet.

This time, the Tesla Hater cultists have far less ammunition for a new smear campaign. Sucks to be a Tesla hater troll! 😀

I agree with you entirely Bill, both about Cadillac and the idea of diesels being clean. Given all of the issues with the diesels, why GM thinks they can make that successful now is beyond me. I mean I am sure part of it is trying to recover sunk development costs, but it’s still dumb. The pushing of dirty diesels is really turning me off to GM as a company. And all of the money deployed in ramping up production of these diesels could have been used to expand the voltec drivetrain to new platforms. Stupid Stupid Stupid GM.

Yeah, my point is they basically burned all the Caddy dealers who took a chance on training their people for EV’s, and then Johann pulled the rug out from under them. The nearest dealer in the states to me selling the PHEV CT6 is 380 miles away, WHICH IS FURTHER THAN THE NEAREST TESLA service center even.

Even if the CT6 Phev was available in my area, I still wouldn’t like it. Although advertised as 30 miles electric range, no one actually testing it has gotten a bit more than 21 miles. This with the same capacity battery as a VOLT which more than a few users have reported getting 70 miles in good weather. Of course its because the car has a Rube Goldberg arrangement of THREE planetary gear boxes, Multitudinous Clutches, and a 3 horsepower electric oil pump to operate them all. What a complicated mess.

And the proof of the putting is that the car is so incredibly inefficient.

All Johann cares about is something that will ‘sorta’ compete with Mercedes’ 0-100 km/h numbers. As if buyers in the states cared about that.

He’s hanging his hat on China sales, but those aren’t even as good as the ELR was in the states.

After the dip in July (92,835) from June (102,130), Worldwide sales started setting records each month from August (104,225), September (124,197), October (125,447), November (148,903) and December’s whooping 176,618.

All this excludes the plugin heavy vehicles which are selling at a very high # especially in China.

Whether December’s record will stay for few months or will it be overtaken in January. Tesla may not sell much this month, but other automakers have offered new models and China may increase a lot because of 8% plugin requirement this year. It gets interesting, lets see.

Team insideevs.
After the line showing Worldwide sales, can you please add another line for plugin heavy vehicle sales for which the numbers are available from China which controls 90% of the sales.
Since the # for other countries is not known, a + sign can be added to indicate it.

Last month the mainstream media crowed that Bolt beat Model-3 with 3:1 ratio in sales. And this month, Model-3 has beaten Bolt 3:2. What a quick reversal in just 1 month.
Yes January is not a good sales month, still the Bolt falling nearly 60% in 1 month is not acceptable. Lets hope it recovers slowly in the coming months.

Ioniq EV sold 17,241 units in 2017 despite battery shortages. Hope this year Hyundai will increase the sales of all 3 versions; Hybrid, Plugin, Electric of this model.

I guess you must be talking about worldwide sales, because the Ioniq EV only sold 432 units in the USA last year. Which is pitiful. It seems like a great car, I bet it could sell more if they’d make more!

Good to see the Tesla Model 3 already topping the chart in January! Some thought that wouldn’t happen until February or even March. 🙂

On the other hand, if we pretend that deliveries equals production (which of course it doesn’t), then 1875 deliveries in a month indicates a weekly production rate of only 423. Rather far from the weekly run rate of 1000 which Tesla tried to claim (altho with multiple qualifiers) for the end of 2017! I knew of course the actual run rate would be lower this month, but to see the implied (but not actual) run rate drop that far is rather disappointing. 🙁

So I regard this as a “good news / bad news” month regarding Model 3 production.

The 1875 number isnt “disappointing”. The average production to deliverty time is 30 days. So only cars build in dec 2017, could be delivered in jan 2017. And as there were only around 2000 build in dec 2017, 1875 is a perfecty normal number. And yes some cars build in jan 2018, will end up being delivered in jan 2018, but these are the odd one out.

I cannot help think that the January sales decrease (from 2017 to 2018) is at least in part due to the GOP Tax Bill drama – in which they initially proposed eliminating the $7500 EV tax credit by the end of 2017. That ‘scare’ probably lit a fire under some potential EV buyers to complete their purchase in CY2017 rather than wait until 2018.

” Toyota sold 213 Mirai in January (up 146.4% from last January’s 83)”

I really wish this was zero. Tax dollars being diverted to promote FCVs is a total waste as BEVs will eventually win the market.

Does anyone know if the fabulous $350/mth +free fuel lease is still available? Seems to me that is the only reason to buy one, but if this is not then Toyota found 213 people willing to spend $50k and be willing to pay the most expensive auto fuel on the market.

Tracking the 1 used Mirai for sale at cars.com and see it has been reduced $500 to $32k. I expect to see it reduced $500 every week or two until it is sold. This car was traded in Dec 7, 2017.

An increase of 900 units YoY despite the presence of so many new models. Could it be the decline in Leaf followed by C-Max. Sad slow start, hope the coming months will see some increase led by both Leaf and Model-3.

If not for Model-3, sales would have gone down to 9,000. My goodness.
Still the 8 % increase in plugin sales is better than the overall 1% increase in total sales.

In another 2 weeks, plugin sales from China will come and we can see a 9 – 12 fold increase in sales compared to last year’s China sales and this year’s USA sales. At least in the critical World #1 market, plugin sector in increasing.

BTW, B250e sold 40 units. And overall Smart sales has gone down to 105 units from 324 units.

C-Max Plugin was the 6th best selling plugin in 2016 and 8th in 2017. Ford could have taken the European version, apply the hybrid and plugin system without adding excessive weight and achieved 52 MPG in hybrid and 50 MPG with 30 mile AER (using bigger batteries) and sold it. They missed it.

Toyota has come up with the new concept of classifying hybrids, plugins, electric and fucell vehicles as electrified vehicles.

As per a latest news, Toyota has sold 11.5 million electrified vehicles. Almost 98.5% are hybrids with only 1.4% being plugins (Prius Plugin – 128,900) and the rest of them being fucell (Mirai – 5,300 sold) and the electric (RAV4-EV – 1,800 and IQ-EV).

That’s not new. GM called their BAS and eAssist systems “electrified”.

Don’t overlook how upgrade-ready Toyota’s system actually is. Going from Prius to Prius Prime was basically just the addition of a one-way clutch and a charger, then swapping battery-pack. It doesn’t take much to realistically see any of the other hybrids getting the same upgrade treatment… Camry, RAV4, Corolla, C-HR, Avalon, or Highlander. Don’t forget there’s that new CUV on the way too, the replacement for Prius v.

I hope they engineer the Prius V replacement to be ready for a better integration of a plug-in size battery than we see in the Prius Prime, which gave up a lot of trunk space as well as it’s 5th passenger seat.