Bottom Right Default
State Name: New Jersey
State Name underscore: New_Jersey
State Name dash: New-Jersey
State Name lower underscore: new_jersey
State Name lower dash: new-jersey
State Name lower: new jersey
State Abbreviation: NJ
State Abbreviation Lower: nj

If you've been following the MBS Commentary, you know what a big deal this afternoon could be. Markets have been preparing for it for weeks and MBS Live members have been on top of those movements every step of the way.

This afternoon, when markets are convulsing mere milliseconds after the Fed Announcement, MBS Live members will know what's going on before anyone else. The accuracy and speed of our real-time price stream and alerts is unmatched.

Today begins with weaker economic data helping bonds move into stronger territory. Investors had been eagerly awaiting the Retail Sales and CPI data duo as the last key market mover of the week. Back on June 14th, the same two reports combined for an even bigger market reaction than the Fed Announcement. While they didn't fall quite as far from median forecasts this time around, they've nonetheless gotten things moving to start the day.

10yr yields are consequently pushing up against the 2.30% technical level that's been in varying degrees of focus all year (first as a floor, then as a ceiling, and most recently, as a floor again). If bonds are able to hold these gains, it would send a moderately strong technical signal about additional rally potential (the rightmost candlestick in the chart below is today's trading so far). If bonds are able to improve upon these gains, it would send an unequivocally strong signal.

So what would "improving upon these gains" look like? Where's the magical line in the sand between a moderate signal and a strong one? That's a bit of a moving target, but something in the neighborhood of 2.28% would be the threshold of that "strong signal" territory.

MBS Pricing Snapshot

Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom. Real time pricing is available via MBS Live.

MBS

FNMA 3.5

102-29 : +0-11

Treasuries

10 YR

2.2838 : -0.0642

Pricing as of 7/14/17 8:57AMEST

Tomorrow's Economic Calendar

Time

Event

Period

Forecast

Prior

Friday, Jul 14

8:30

Retail sales mm (%)*

Jun

0.1

-0.3

8:30

Retail sales ex-autos mm (%)

Jun

0.2

-0.3

8:30

Core CPI Year/Year (%)*

Jun

1.7

1.7

8:30

CPI mm, sa (%)*

Jun

0.1

-0.1

9:15

Capacity Utilization (%)

Jun

76.7

76.6

9:15

Industrial Production (%)*

Jun

0.3

0.0

10:00

Business inventories mm (% )

May

0.3

-0.2

10:00

Consumer Sentiment 1Yr Inf Prelim (%)

Jul

2.6

About the Author

A former originator, Matthew began writing for Mortgage News Daily in 2007, covering a wide range of topics. Seeing a need in the marketplace, his focus increasingly shifted toward relating MBS and broader financial markets for loan originators.
...
more

Founded in 2004, Mortgage News Daily has established itself as a leader in housing news, analysis and data. Our innovative social media platform combines industry leading content and data with an active community of industry professionals, to accomplish our primary goal - keeping our readers informed.