Monday, August 31, 2015

There’s no question that the world economy has been shaky at best since the crash of 2008. Yet, politicians, central banks, et al., have, since then, regularly announced that “things are picking up.” One year, we hear an announcement of “green shoots.” The next year, we hear an announcement of “shovel-ready jobs.” And yet, year after year, we witness the continued economic slump. Few dare call it a depression, but, if a depression can be defined as “a period of time in which most people’s standard of living drops significantly,” a depression it is.

The State of Illinois is dead broke. They cannot pay the pension of state employees. The lottery purchases obviously are used by the state for whatever they desire. Now that they are broke, they can’t even pay the winners of their lottery. And people trust government? The government is incapable of managing anything because they exempt themselves from the law. Nobody cares about right and wrong. You go to prison for five years if you LIE to a government agent, but they can LIE to you with no liability. And people wonder why Trump & Bernie Sanders are rising in the polls?

So far, the markets are generally positioning themselves for a turn at the end of September. The Dow has traded sideways since Thursday, trying to cling to the rebound. We need a closing today ABOVE 17007 to firm up the market, and a closing below 16632 will warn that the Dow is weak going into September.

Gold fizzled out quickly for we are in the middle of a flight to quality and that means people TRUST government debt. There is no fundamental safe-haven status for gold to rally under the current conditions. Here we would nee a closing above 1225, whereas a closing below 1168 keeps gold bearish.

The euro closing resistance stands at 11240. Here too, we are not in a position to take off to the moon.

It looks like this is the peak in government. Even Bernie Sanders is closing the gap with Hillary in Iowa. The Democrats hope for a landslide if Trump goes 3rd Party and the established Republicans fear Trump because he will not allow Boehner to control the party or Congress. So this time it appears our model is correct so far that this is the peak in government for this ECM turning point.

Because of the civil asset forfeiture laws I think I understand why you say own only gold coins before 1947 not bullion they can call cash. Am I correct?

HP

ANSWER: Absolutely. Even that will not be a guarantee againstgovernment who hasgone totally criminal. However, if you have circulated common date $20, $10, or $5 gold coins, at least you can argue it is a collection rather than bullion. It may not prevent 100% against confiscation for you still have crazy stupid government employees, but it is at least an arguing point.

When we first tried to mail ancient roman coins made into necklaces, the post office refused to accept them because it isILLEGALto mail money. We tried to explain that these are coins from the Roman Empire. They interpreted“coin”as money and therefore we could not mail them. We have to insure them asantiquities, not coins. It just does not help one’s blood pressure dealing with total stupidity in government agencies.

Hence, buying U.S. common date gold coins is at least a hedge. Some think that they will be fine since the Mint sells gold — well, the European government prints €500 notes and will confiscate them if you have them. You cannot reason with outright criminals, so why bother to even try?

“The Forecaster” will be shown in Switzerland for a limited time from September 2—9, 2015. We all know who is behind trying to prevent this film from airing in the USA and Switzerland. They interpret free speech as their ability to freely suppress whatever makes them look bad.

Over the weekend, The Financial Times reported that Beijing would abandon its large-scale share purchases. This story sparked declines in China’s A-listed shares, although the Shanghai Composite pared losses to close 0.8 percent down. Then there is Jackson Hole and how amazingly stupid people are who do not understand what the Fed has been saying that they must get back to “normalization” of interest rates. These people, who pretend to be pundits in the know, continue to talk about unemployment, jobs, and inflation as if the Fed was still guided by Keynesian economics. The Fed is trapped and has lost all ability to return to Keynesian economics unless it raises interest rates to “normal” levels. We have a massive debt crisis coming from the state, municipalities, and pension funds. They all needed “normal” interest rates to survive.

Federal Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer regarding the likelihood of a U.S. interest rate hike in September commented on CNBC on Friday from the Jackson Hole symposium that it was too early to determine whether last week’s market turmoil would impact the likelihood of a rate hike next month. The Fed is not going say, “Look, we have a real crisis on the horizon unless we raise rates.” This is the code word they use — NORMALIZATION.

While we need some form of rule of law and independent body to appeal to for complaints, there is no question that government is by far the evilest invention ever created by humankind. When you actually look at how government begins, it allows us to see that the heart of the problem is always greed and power. Today, police officers can find numerous excuses to charge you with something simply because they personally dislike you. The Fed is fighting hard to keep $167,000 that they simply stole from an individual after a traffic stop who was never charged with any crime whatsoever. This is outright criminal activity on the part of government. Judges are hopelessly corrupt in their judgment for they are appointed by government, and therefore are expected to do the government’s bidding. My father took a judgeship in a local town when I was a kid. The politicians complained that he did not impose the maximum fine on everyone who appeared in court. He quit because he would not do as they commanded. Guess it was in the genes.

King Solomon was renowned for his wisdom, yet this story from the Bible illustrates the origin of government and the role of the king they play. At this point in time, the king was the benevolent father of his country. He was there as the independent judge for private disputes since he did not benefit either way from any decision. There were no fines to collect, as this gives the government incentive to ensure you are guilty. He fulfilled his obligation as king — to be there FOR THE PEOPLE — not against them for personal exploitation.

Even in ancient Greece, something like murder was never a state crime. To be prosecuted by the state, such as Socrates, required theft from the state or offending the gods, which was Socrates’ crime. If someone killed anyone in your family, it became your DUTY to bring a prosecution — not the state’s. This separation between public and private acts restrained the state and is the reason why there were family feuds, largely in Eastern European culture. If someone in my family killed someone in your family, then your family was within its right to retaliate against ANYONE within my family. So the act was not personally punishable but rather one family against another. This was the origin of the concept of the feuds.

There was also the ancient practice of “deodand” whereby the object that caused the death of another was donated (forfeited) and sold to pay for the funeral of the victim. Under this doctrine, the chattel (property) involved in the accidental death was forfeited to the crown and sold to pay for prayers to the departed. It was not for the personal benefit of the crown, as is the case today. Our modern governments have usurped religious power as far as having the ability to seize property, but it no longer has anything to do with its origins. Government has replaced God and the money is simply theirs. Today, civil asset forfeiture is an out crime against the people by a greedy totalitarian state as judges reach back to claim an ancient power torn from its origins to benefit government. There is no longer an accidental death doctrine in which the proceeds are donated for prayers. This is just grabbing the money, which no longer serves any moral purpose besides filling the pockets of government and police pensions.

The United States Supreme Court in J. W. Goldsmith Jr., Grant Co. v. The United States, 254 U.S. 505 (1922), noted the origins of government forfeiture power in the historical practice of deodand. The court cited Sir William Blackstone (1723–1780), in his “Commentaries of the Laws of England”, which noted that this practice extended back to the times of Ancient Greece. Deodand was abolished in England in 1846 and it is not practiced in the United States, yet it has been transformed into the government’s right to seize your property even if you have done NOTHING wrong for it is the object that commits the offense, not you.

The U.S. Supreme Court relying on deodand to justify the confiscation of property to enrich the coffers of government is no different than being robbed on the street at gunpoint. Under this ancient practice, the object is guilty, not the owner. This is really an example of how judges are owned by government and do not defend the Constitution or the people. They can claim someone sold drugs from your home and seize it for the house committed the crime, not you. The Constitution means nothing; it is just a scrap of paper as long as we have pretend judges appointed by politicians to rule in favor of government. How else do you achieve a virtually 99% conviction rate with court-appointed lawyers who are experts at losing cases?

Several state constitutions in the USA explicitly prohibit deodand or equivalent practices, most often in the context of property left behind by one who commits suicide. These states are Missouri (Art. 1, §30), New Hampshire (Pt. 2, Art. 89), Tennessee (Art. 1, §12), and Vermont (Ch. II, §65). What is now happening throughout Europe, including England, is that everyone is following the lead of the USA thanks to the Supreme Court by confiscating any property the state desires from people who need not be criminals. Just the mere possession of wealth today is justification for what has become armed robbery. There is no difference from a thug on the street holding a gun to your face demanding all of your money and jewelry from a police officer doing the exact same thing. Try leaving Italy with a lot of gold jewelry. They take you aside and weigh it. If it is too much in the OPINION of police officer, say goodbye to your property.

The goldbugs should stop the nonsense about market manipulations and wake up. You will not be able to have gold since storing it in a safe deposit box is now money laundering. If you try to travel with gold, well here comes civil asset forfeiture; the government does not need to prove anything for it is the gold that commits the crime by its sheer existence. Welcome to the age of the Sovereign Debt Crisis and DEFLATION. If you have been waiting for hyperinflation, well you will not see that before you die. They are hunting money like a blood sport. This is all about them not honoring their promises. When it comes time to have to honor any unfunded promise, they will simply default. Historically, government always defaults for they are the most evil invention of society.

And people wonder why Trump is soaring in the polls? Hey, we will not change anything with an establishment career politician whether they are a Democrat or Republican. We are reaching the point of insanity and society will need to go through the classic control-alt-delete reboot just to survive.

We need peace officers, not pinkertons

Americans got a glimpse of what policing is like in a more humane and civilized society last year when four young Swedish cops, on vacation in New York City and riding on a subway, found themselves faced with a bloody fight in the aisle by two angry black men.

"You know what's funny? If we owed the state money, they'd come take it and they don't care whether we have a roof over our head. Our budget wouldn't be a factor. You can't say (to the state), 'Can you wait until I get my budget under control?'"

If we want our children and grandchildren to live, we had better use the “minutes” before midnight to get our act in better shape, rather than just sitting back and relaxing. We have much to do and now is the time to get started.

On Friday, an appeals court overturned a U.S. District Court decision last May that had declared that the National Security Agency’s bulk collection of Americans’ phone records was beyond the authorization of the law. The three-judge panel of the U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit kicked the matter back to the lower court for additional deliberation.

The decision did not declare the NSA’s program, which was revealed by whistleblower Edward Snowden in 2013, to have been legal or constitutional. Rather, it focused on a technicality: a majority opinion that the plaintiffs in the case could not actually prove that the metadata program swept up their own phone records. Therefore, the plaintiffs, the court declared, did not have standing to sue.

Although I am not that knowledgeable in Economics, I have been following your blog for some time now. I am intrigued by the patterns Socrates unearthed regarding human behavior. I can appreciate a good puzzle. We keep repeating everything we do, but it grows more devastating as our technical knowledge improves, or so it seems. Does Socrates think the human race is doomed to be a failed species in the end because of this? Or would he not even consider this? (I am thinking Darwin) It does not look too good.

Appreciative,

L.

ANSWER: I have been fortunate insofar as I did not inherit money, I inherited a talent for trading, logic, and reason intermixed with curiosity and imagination. The key to creating such a computer system was data. Literally, I put together perhaps the most comprehensive collection of the monetary instruments of every society on a global scale to map out the trends. You will find much of the monetary history of the world on this site for reference. You will also find the history of interest rates, not to mentionfinancial panics, along side the history of economic theory. We have included nature, storms, earthquakes, climate changes (cyclical), and the rise and fall of populations as well as war.

Bringing together so much data that cost far more than most of the NY bank’s research budgets combined for decades, has enable us to see that we do reach period of tremendous concentration of trends – the rogue wave that appears out of nowhere.

This is what we face about once every 300 years. Society can make it to the next step in our evolution if we at least understand what we are dealing with. Government is collapsing. They will fight fiercely to retain that power. That is what they want everything. This is exactly like Stalin – paranoid. They live in fear of revolution and are preparing for the worst. If we prevail, we can graduate to the next step.Yet so many people keep trying to drag us down condemning us to relive the past unable to see the future.

Whatever do now do in Australia, every site you look at from porn to whatever, will be recorded by the government and will be accessible by more than 20 agencies without a warrant. This complete elimination of any privacy takes place October 13th.

The polls show that the public distrust mainstream press. That is onepoll they do not report because it is about them. The media generally dismiss any poll on themselves chalking it up to “shoot the messenger” for reporting. But the question of Trump at the debate has a lot of people really writing off the press as having any credibility. The tone is shifting very negative about the press and that is something they will not report.

What our computer has been forecasting for 2016 is unfolding right before our eyes. It is a product of the trend within the economy.Many Republicans I know are saying the last thing they want is another Bush. The establishment just do not get it. They have been assuming Trump is just another Ross Perot who will fade quickly. But they are wrong. Many people, Democrat and Republican, will vote for Trump BECAUSE he is not own by someone and speaks his mind. They do not fear him taking office for the job will restrain anyone who is there.

But Jeb Bush has lost his top three fund raisers. This is a very bad omen for Bush. We may be looking at an internal revolution within the Republican Party. Our turning point on the ECM, October 1st, may see the government shut down because Boehner cannot deliver the Republican votes when many are part of the Tea Party. So 2016 is shaping up to be very interesting indeed.

The Country-Club Republicans are in a state of PANIC when it comes to Trump. Politicians are just no longer trusted. They do not grasp what to do any more.

Saturday, August 29, 2015

An assistant professor in the law department of the US Military Academy at West Point has argued that legal scholars critical of the war on terrorism represent a “treasonous” fifth column that should be attacked as enemy combatants.

The training works by jolting cops with painful electrical shocks when they hesitate to shoot.The justification for inculcating trigger-happiness is that the alternative is the “dire consequence” that the hesitation required for the cop to comprehend the situation could result in the cop’s death. The training assumes that there is no “dire consequence” to the cop murdering an unarmed innocent citizen.