Monday, February 18, 2008

Wisconsin Poll: Obama, McCain with double digit leads

Barack Obama 53Hillary Clinton 40

Obama has expanded his lead in Wisconsin since the survey PPP did a week ago.

Obama is leading with every meaningful constituency except senior citizens. Whites and women, weak points for him in some states, are not in Wisconsin. He leads 50-43 with both of those groups, and has his typical large leads among African Americans (76-21) and men (57-36.)

PPP projects that if the Wisconsin primary had a standard turnout, Obama would lead just 47-44. But assuming the disproportionately high turnout of blacks and young people that other early primary states have experienced occurs in Wisconsin as well, that should be worth an extra ten points of margin for Obama.

One trend continuing from last week's poll is that many more Wisconsin Democrats list the war as their top issue than in other states. That's a big part of Obama's success, as he leads 58-37 with that constituency.

John McCain 50Mike Huckabee 39Ron Paul 6

As has happened in recent primaries in places like Virginia, Tennessee, and Georgia Huckabee is closing in on McCain as election day gets closer. McCain's 11 point lead is down from 21 points in a poll conducted last week.

One thing Wisconsin has in common with other states where the primary has broken Huckabee's way in the closing days is a high percentage of Republican voters who say that moral and family values is the issue they take into account most when deciding who to vote for. It's the second biggest issue in the state for GOP voters, right behind the economy, and Huckabee leads 70-18 with people who say it's their top concern.

The Republican race for the nomination is at a similar point to where the Democrats were four years ago when they came to Wisconsin. The race is all but over, but not all of the viable challengers have dropped out. That year John Edwards came surprisingly close to beating John Kerry in the state, and if the race continues to move in the direction it's been heading Huckabee could put a scare into McCain tomorrow night.

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