October 2003 was the month that
the National Weather Service issued its winter outlook. For most of the country,
it was "we don't know." The weather across the country did little
to generate any confidence in any long-range forecast since the major flow
pattern switched three times, twice in the last 10 days of the month. In Saint
Cloud, these major shifts changed from a near-record warm and dry pattern
to a cold and dry pattern and finished the past three days in a cold and wet
pattern.

Since the warm pattern dominated
the first 24 days of the month, the monthly statistics from the Saint Cloud
Municipal Airport showed a warm and dry October. The mean
temperature for the month was 48.2°F, nearly three degrees above normal.
The October 2003 temperature only tied 2003 for the 37th mildest October out
of the 124 Octobers in Saint Cloud weather records. The warm weather came
in two streaks: between October 4 and 12 when 2 record temperature were broken
and another 3 records were tied (see daily
October records), and between October 18 and 20, all with highs in the
middle to upper 70's. The first 24 days of October had an average high of
65.7°F and a mean temperature of 51.9°F, which would have ranked as
the 11th warmest October on record. However, one major pattern shift allowed
much colder air into Minnesota. The average high temperature of October's
final week was 40.3°F, typical of November 10th. Last week's mean temperature
was 35.7°F, more than 16 degrees colder than the average for the first
24 days of October (see
daily October statistics).

The growing season came to an
abrupt end on October 2nd with a low temperature of 19°F. According to
the median frost
date data from the Minnesota State Climatologist Office, this hard freeze
came 15 days earlier than normal.

The dry weather that began in
mid-summer continued through most of October. Saint Cloud's total precipitation
for October 2003 was 1.10 inch, more than an inch below normal. This total
tied 1947 and 1992 for the 39th driest October out of 115 years on record.
However, the October rainfall was also very changeable. For the first 23 days
of October, there were only two days with measurable rainfall. The dry weather
was during the warm period, leading to many grass and brush fires, especially
during the last warm period of October 18-20. When Saint Cloud changed to
a colder pattern, more rain, sleet, and snow fell. In fact, Saint Cloud picked
up measurable precipitation during 6 of the final 8 days of the month, including
every day during October 26-30. This was only the fifth such streak in October
in the past 32 years. The longest October streak of consecutive precipitation
days is 8 days, first set on 20-27 October 1908 and tied on 11-18 October
1928 and 5-12 October 1982 (see list
of longest precipitation streaks). While the late October precipitation
more than doubled the amount of precipitation for the month, it only accounted
for .50 inch. Thus, Saint Cloud rainfall since July 15 is now nearly 4.5 inches
below normal (see October and Growing Season Rainfall).
While conditions have eased somewhat since October 20th, the Minnesota State
Climatologist Office has issued a
report on the dry conditions since July 15. Some parts of the state have
precipitation deficits of 8-9 inches with nearly 6 inches deficits reported
on the Kandiyohi/Stearns County border. The dry conditions continue to be
the most severe in southeast Minnesota, which has been rated in third stage
or extreme drought in this
week's drought monitor from National Drought Mitigation Center. Central
Minnesota is rated as being in a moderate drought. These conditions have been
eased by this week's precipitation, falling at a time when the ground isn't
frozen and the use by vegetation is much reduced from a month ago.

There is one more daily
October record to discuss, and believe it or not, it's in the snowfall category.
The first snowflakes of the cold season fell on October 26th as rain mixed
with wet snow and sleet at times. For about three hours Tuesday evening, some
of the wet snow actually stuck to the ground. A total of 0.1 inch did briefly
accumulation in Saint Cloud that evening before melting, and that
tied a record! In Saint Cloud, the only previous measurable snowfall
on October 29th had been in 1967 (Note that the earliest snowfall in Saint
Cloud history was on September 21, 1995 when 0.2 inch fell). This was a far
cry from last October when 6.4 inches fell, only 0.4 inch away from the October
record (see ten snowiest Octobers
in Saint Cloud).

OK, I've put it off, hoping
you'd forget. Besides dirty looks during the raw, cloudy weather of the past
week, the most frequent remark I heard this past month was, "What's the
weather going to be like this winter?" Given that the steering winds
have changed twice in the past week, you can probably guess my answer, "I
don't know and anyone who says he/she does is fooling him/herself at best."
The current weather pattern, which has brought cooler and wetter weather to
fire-scorched southern California, will continue to produce cool weather and
frequent storm passages to Minnesota well into the next week. Will this pattern
persist? Don't ask!