2235Professor John Curtice of Strathclyde University says: On the results declared so far, there is one clear story - Labour's vote is well down on 2004 and it seems highly likely that they will get considerably less than 20% of the vote. They are in a tight battle with UKIP in order to obtain second place. Meanwhile, the Conservatives are struggling to maintain their share of the vote last time, while we still cannot rule out the possibility of the BNP winning a seat.

Labour has won the most votes in the North-East of England at the European Elections, but its share of the vote is down 9% on 2004.

It comes as Labour braces itself for what Welsh Secretary Peter Hain predicts will be a "terrible" night.

If the 9% decline in votes is repeated elsewhere, it will add to the pressure on Gordon Brown who has vowed to stay in office despite calls to go.

Counting of votes is nearing completion with more results expected shortly.

Speaking to the BBC earlier the Labour former minister Nick Raynsford said the county council elections had been "disastrous" and he expected the European elections to be "even worse".

On the basis of the limited number of council declarations so far, the Conservative vote will be down a little, UKIP will be up, Labour will slip into third place and may be struggling to hold that against the Lib Dems whose vote seems to be holding up

There are rumours sweeping the parliament - and I stress only rumours at this stage - that eurosceptic UKIP has done stunningly well. One suggestion is that they have come second, with 18 seats. If true, Mr Farage will have a very big smile on his face tonight.

That's 25% of the seats for the UKIP, and a few more for the Tories. With well over 50% of the seats going to Eurosceptic parties (Cameron wants to take the Tories out of the EPP), and with an impending Tory government less than a year away, will the UK leave the EU?

The results don't show a Libertas seat - they're fourth behind the sitting independent with only Labour and Sinn Fein votes left to redistribute, and I'd guess most of those will go to the Independent rather than Ganley, though weirder things have happened. See here. So it's possible, but I don't think it's likely right now.

Chancellor Angela Merkel's conservatives emerge as the strongest party in first exit polls. According to exit polls, the CDU takes 38.2 percent. The Social Democrats SPD come in second with 21.3 percent.

The conservative Christian Democrats CDU and their Bavarian sister party CSU have won the EU elections in Germany.

Chancellor Merkel's party came in first with 38.2 percent of the votes, suffering substantial losses compared to their 2004 result of 44.5 percent.

The Social Democrats SPD fell to 21.3 percent from 21.5 percent in 2004 according to first forecasts released by Germany's public television at 18 pm.

The fact that the Germans are only marginally interested in the European elections was predictable. That the Germans will simultaneously use this opportunity to demonstrate their massive disinterest in social democracy, surprises even the pessimists in the SPD today.

Although the miserable performance of the Social Democrats was well in the European trend, this can hardly console the party leadership. On the contrary, the SPD has not only a mobilization problem, it has above all a problem with their leading candidate [in the upcoming national elections], who apparently failed completely with his attempts in recent months to win a domestic political profile.

LOL. So perhaps you shouldn't have supported the return of and takeover by the Schröderite Old Guard... (Müntefering, Steimeier)

As for who is that "you": this was written by SPIEGEL's resident neocon, Claus Christian Malzahn, whom we highlighted on ET a fewtimesbefore. I refrain from quoting how he tries to spin it all against campaigning on the left again. Nevermind that overall, left-wing parties gained and right-wing parties lost (vs 2004).

Turnout down just over a point. But I bet, proportionally, Swedish speaking voters have been more active this time. The SPP was not predicted to get a seat before voting. If SPP do get one tonight then my close colleagues will be congratulating themselves on their marketing ideas and execution ;-)

Live report from a colleague at the SPP election HQ. It's still tight. SPP needs over 6%. Now at 6.1%. The only relief is that there are still votes to be counted from the Helsinki region which has a higher % of swedish speakers.

I voted SFP for the first time in my life. Not very happy with that vote, but there it is (although Nils Torvalds wasn't too far from winning, hah). I would have voted Green League otherwise.
Anyway, really smart move on the SFP's part to nominate a popular politican from Åland as part of their list, they managed to get the Ålanders to turn out in droves. If they hadn't, they would have lost the seat.

I voted for one of the HBL leader writers, Björn Månsson. I've met him and discussed with him - he seems well informed (as he should be) about a wide variety of issues. He also has a sense of humour and a command of languages. The Vaalikone profiler put us in fairly close approximation on what I think are the key issues. I'd rather have Nils or Björn on the seat than young Carl, but SFP's problems are not going to be solved in less than 5 dedicated years of change, so perhaps a younger generation rep is a good idea.

And "my" party (The Left Wing Alliance) lost again. I don't know how many elections in a row they have now lost; I've lost count a while ago. The Greens say they aim to take votes from the right wing parties and the Social Democrats but it seems that they end up taking the Left votes instead...

(And also, in previous European elections the Left Wing Alliance had an Eurocritic as a strong candidate. This time he was not there anymore so the critical votes went to Soini's Ugly Party instead. The Left campaign this time was about "your conscience and Europe", not so much about "who needs the EU anyway", and it seems that it did not really attract voters. Which is a shame.)

The Socilaist's fall is spectacular, and the doubling of the Green vote did not take it up all... even if it seems the Greens and NPA captured all their losses. 44.9% for all left-of-centre parties, hm.

The PS is being cut down to size, and will need to enter real discussions with others. Watching Cohn-Bendit (big personal winner after Bayrou's smear campaign FAIL) with Melenchon and intelligent PS people in the France2 studio, there's a feeling of a beginning of a reconstruction of the left that must now give up productivism and adopt political ecology as mainstream. A distinctly positive buzz.

The parties of the Left are in a heated battle with the Libs for fourth place, while the Greens have almost clipped the Socialists. Meanwhile the center-Right seems to have fractured in Germany, although they still hold the strongest position by far.

Final results indicate that the right-win aprties do not get any mroe significant votes from other european elections,.
However, PSOE got a very low turnout in some regions whcih traditionally support them with huge amount of votes, specially catalonia, where 200 kvotes stayed home (from 900 kvotes to 700 kvotes) having a vey low participation.

This can be also indicatiosn that recent internal political questions in Spain ahd an influence in the electiosn, int his case the lack of an agreement for the finantial arrangement between the Spanish State and Catalonia.

At least, our TV are showing report from all capitals... if only we would ahve selected a head of the comission .. I would bet that voting total would raise significatively only if some "Head" would be selected by the european parliament.

If not..everything is local.

A pleasure

I therefore claim to show, not how men think in myths, but how myths operate in men's minds without their being aware of the fact.
Levi-Strauss, Claude

In the Poster Spotting diary, I expressed my bad feelings about the liberal SzDSz's campaign slogans asking whether there are 200,001 Free Democrats. A rather damaging campaign in end effect: with SzDSz getting just 62,419 votes, the far-right can now crow (and they do) that the answer is a resounding NO...

In 1989, on the road towards consenting to multi-party democracy, the ruling party then called the Hungarian Socialist Workers' Party held a congress, on which the majority voted to re-form the party as today's Hungarian Socialist Party. However, a minority of diehards chose to go on under the old name. (Since then, there have been a few name changes, but what the Socialists dropped, "Worker", was always part of it.)

While this party adopted some Eurocommunist and progressive rhetoric through the years, it still concerns itself mostly with guarding the good memory of Kádár. (I.e. they get into the news most often when protesting on his birthday or at his grave or defend his 1956 record and such.)

Worse, the party looks like the personal fiefdom of its leader (in office ever since 1989), who gained some quite bad reputation by cozying up to dictators: so for example, during the coup against Gorbachev, he flew to Moscow to be the first to pledge loyalty to the coup leaders; and he got along with ol' Saddam (he was in reality what all other anti-war people were only in the accusations of the warbots).

In recent years, the party had one positive (from my viewpoint positive) campaign of note: that for a referendum against healthcare privatisation a few years ago. However, back then, right-populist Fidesz hijacked that campaign, ultimately leading to a failure of the referendum on turnout. Yet, later on, the Workers' Party did not go out of the way of tactical cooperation with Fidesz and even the far-right on more social-themed campaigns.

In the current elections, the one Workers' Party TV spot I saw was against my liking: they talked about tackling the economic crisis by way of protectionism, and that in nationalist tones -- were they trying to steal votes from Jobbik?...

It's an internal problem. The PD is more a chimera than a party with a strong leftist identity. It has a strong pata-leftist Catholic component that refuses any concession to secular and socialist values.

Were it to join the PSE, it could provoke a break-up. At the same time Word from Above might order to stay in, thus contaminating the PSE with pata-leftist Catholicism, that is when the vote comes on crucial issues, the PD in Europe might break ranks in order to keep its chimeric identity.

The projections on that site are based on a 39% vote for the Pdl. The latest projections have it at 35%.

Of the uncommitted parties there is one left party (2 seats), one orthodox christian party (2 seats) and one green party (1 seat). I guess the left party will end up sitting either with the Greens-EFA or GUE/NGL and that the green party will join the Greens-EFA. The christians could end up joining IND-DEM.

I've been around campaigning and missed all the fun here but yes, SYRIZA is the mainstream GUE/NGL party and it looks now that it will only elect 1 member of parliament, KKE which is kind of sui generis, pretty much a soviet type stalinist party, yet includes itself in GUE/NGL, will elect two, and the Green Party will elect one. So its GUE 3, Greens 1 from Greece, and 8 for PES and the Conservatives. The triumphant LAOS, extreme rightists I have no clue where they might be heading, but I wouldn't be surprised if they headed where Fini is, he seems to be a role model for bringing the party into respectability - but it's more the Lega Norde type.

Abstention here reached record levels, around 38%, (officially it's close to 50% but that's artificial), since the elections fell on a three-day weekend, sunny and hot, the first chance for a decent summer break. The numbers aren't out yet but probably less than half of the 18-35 age group showed up to vote. This age group's no-show was a disaster for SYRIZA and the Greens, both of which expected better results (and being immersed over the past few weeks in the SYRIZA campaign, I can tell you that despite the small increase from 2004, the mood was desolate).

The Far-right thing is really worrying, there is a huge anti-immigrant backlash in the country, especially in Athens and this result turns the whole thing into a major issue. LAOS was the biggest far-right party, but if you add them, wit various small nationalist and fascist groups, they add up to 9%. 0.5% went to a nazi group. These are real nazis with funny salutes and deadly violent, showing up in various neighbourhoods and playing police: basically beating up immigrants.

The socialists were 4,5 points ahead of New Democracy, the ruling conservatives, which is decent for them and might possibly lead to early elections in October, or certainly March. I hope the weather is uninspiring when this happens.

These estimates exclude representation of the cluster of leftist parties that have fragmented since the last general elections. It's sad to see some valid politicians such as Claudio Fava or Nichi Vendola excluded but it simply repeats a secular problem within the left: protaganism.

The latest projections indicate a strong erosion of preferences for Berluconi's personal political entity, approximately 35%. He had announced practically everyday during the campaign that he expected to carry the absolute majority together with the Lega Nord. He saw his win at 42-43% with the Lega at 10%. Recent polls placed his populist political entity at 39%.

The main opposition party, the Democratic Party, appears to hold grounds at 27%.

Comparisons are difficult to make with the previous European elections as the Left was united under a large coalition. 7 to 8% of the votes have been dispersed this time in small asteroid parties on the left.

As for Italy, there are local realities that have penalized Berlusconi's personal political entity, the Pdl. In Sicily the tactics of Governor Lombardo have caused a strong showing of the autonomists- over 12%. However on the national level this is not enough to gain a seat in Strasbourg. While the Pdl is penalized, the vote nevertheless shows an unequivocal rightwing turn not only in the islands but throughout Southern Italy. There the Pdl has a showing from 42 to 48% with the traditional exception of the Basilicata. The strong showing there is due to the insignificance of autonomist movements that characterize Northern Italy and the islands. One may not exclude a certain macho vote that identifies itself with Woody's sexual philandering.

The Pd has held its position, perhaps a sign that its collapse under Veltroni has stopped. It is however in a difficult situation to form alliances on a national level with two small but significant parties on either side- Di Pietro's Idv against Casini's Christian Democrat remake. The asteroid parties on the Left have disappeared from any elective role yet persist in presenting themselves with a fiefdom mentality rather than form a pragmatic coalition. Their insistence on disunity is a major voter drain for the left- on the order of 8%.

While the far left torments itself over indistinguishable nuances, arcane for almost all voters, the right wing has no problem kissing up to a demagogic blob of a party, a probable symptom of their intellectual maturity. The only real problem on the right is represented by autonomist movements. But Berlusconi has demonstrated that he can metabolize them quite well when not outright compete with them in racist demagogy.

The Democratic Party may be the first party in the Northeast. Other than the expected drain on its right with the Lega Nord (18%), the Pdl (Ppoppolo! della Libbertàà) may have lost many votes over the Lechergate scandal. For the past two hours the Pd has been one point ahead of the Pdl. Strange is the alchemy of voting.

The Pirate Party has won a huge victory in the Swedish elections and is marching on to Brussels. After months of campaigning against well established parties, the Pirate Party has gathered enough votes to be guaranteed a seat in the European Parliament.

Any idiot can face a crisis - it's day to day living that wears you out.

Romania exit polls: PSD comes first in European elections, slightly overcoming PD-L. Far-rightist Greater Romania Party leader CV Tudor joins European Parliament de V.O. HotNews.ro Duminică, 7 iunie 2009, 21:12 English | Top News Exit polls in Romania's European Parliament elections on Sunday showed the Social Democrats (PSD) and Liberal Democrats (PD-L) in the lead, with an advantage within error margins for PSD. According to a poll by Insomar institute, PSD won 31% of the votes, followed by PD-L with 30.4%, Liberals (PNL) with 16.6%, Hungarian Democrats (UDMR) with 9.1%, Greater Romania Party (PRM, far right) with 7.2%, President Basescu's daughter Elena Basescu (independent) with 3.6%.

Another poll by CCSB showed PSD in the lead with 30.7%, followed by PD-L with 30.4%. According to the CCSB exit poll, the following party received:

PNL - 15.4%

UDMR - 10.4%

PRM - 6.8%

Elena Basescu - 3.4%

According to the CCSB results:

PSD would win 10 seats in the EP

PD-L - 10 seats

PNL - 5 seats

UDMR - 4 seats

PRM - 2 seats

Elena Basescu, President Basescu's daughter who ran as an independent candidate, is also in the books for 1 seat

The two people leading the populist, far-right group Greater Romania Party are veteran far-right leader Corneliu Vadim Tudor and businessman-politician Gigi Becali.

As noted in the update of the diary, it remains to be seen what happens on the far-right:

the ID (18 MEP-elects) now looks to be below the 25 seat limit, thus poised for dissolution;

UEN (32 MEP-elects) may fall below the threshold too, with further departures (in particular the 15 of PiS from Poland may join the EC);

though Euronat parties collected only 17 MEP-elects, they may yet manage to cobble together a far-right faction with UEN and ID dropouts.

By my count, there are altogether 37 far-right MEP-elects (23 Non-Inscrits, among them 17 associated with Euronat and/or the late ITS faction; 2 in the ID; 12 in the UEN), which would place them between Greens and GUE/NGL in size. However, they won't all suffer each other in the same faction. Not even all Euronat parties are compatible: above all Jobbik/Hungary and PRM/Romania (both with 3 MEP-elects).

I meant the groups that may not reach the threshold for group status. When would for example I/D need to have recruited their extra members? When the parliament opens? Or does the parliament have a forming period of some sort?

For those of you who are curious to learn more about the various larger European parties, I suggest you check out Luis de Souza's articles. Here is the link to his latest one, and on that article there are links to his discussions on other parties:

Hi all from from a noisy sports bar in sunny Spain! I'm trying to do a results post for Ireland but really need to be able to import spreadsheet tables to do justice to the subtletess of votes transferring between candidates as candidates are eliminated from the count. Anyone know a simple way of publishing a table in scoop without losing all the formatting? I've tried saving the excel table as an xml and htm file but still lose the formating without which the numbers really aren't intelligible. Many thanks if someone has a solution.

The main reason for the divergence appears to be counting the Italian PD among the PES group (which may or may not happen, see de Gondi above).

The European Parliament website also displays the share of the total number of seats as a percentage. This shows that all parties except the greens lose share (the PES the most).

However, a lot could change after the remaining non-inscrits get divided up into parties. In this context, the tories will form their own party with ~ 26 of their seats, 9 of the Czech ODS seats and possibly the ~ 12 Polish PiS seats (now in the UEN, and which would probably destroy that group).

That leaves 32-35 seats of various parties that will largely remain isolated, although a few might join some other party.