Posts from July 2009

30 July 2009

First an admission.“Elijah” has always ranked very, very high on my list of favorite names.Unlike Freud and according to tradition, Elijah reconciles father with son and mother with daughter.And as some unique Americans, the Satmar Rabbis, will tell you, the appearance of Elijah portends very good things to come, much like watching the sun breaking through and then rising above the ocean on a beautiful early morning.

So Elijah comes across as the anti-Freud and let’s face it, at least a few of the intelligentsia, among others, tend to view as a guru Sigmund and his (perhaps misunderstood) mantra of you too can think like an angry 4 year-old all your life. And while I am not graced with either theological virtues or insights, much less the life that such would entail, I am inclined to prefer Elijah and his approach to that of Freud.

A critical component of Obama’s Afghan strategy – separating local Afghans from Taliban insurgents and then building social and economic programs that create local loyalty to the central government – is being nullified because of inadequate numbers of Afghan police who are illiterate, untrained and deserting in droves, congressional and other experts say.

Speaking of the current Marine assault into the southern province of Helmand, an administration official said: “Material support and strong and continuous aid are essential to our progress.” Adding, “The Taliban are counting on the United States and its allies to be unable to sustain a costly and interminable war.”

26 July 2009

What dictators like Serbia’s SlobodanMilosevic and Ayatollah Khomeini had in common was their grasp of the blunt truth that whoever controls the streets controls the government and the country. As students of mob dynamics the late Mr.Milosevic and the Ayatollah Khomeini had few equals.

Khomeini knew the power of crowds from the 1979 revolution. As French sociologist GustavLeBon noted, a member of a crowd descends to a very low degree of civilization. Like Milosevic, Khomeini was aware that crowds were inflammable, mindless, imbued with violent feeling but incapable of thought, acting with the elation and excitement of “blind men who are blindest when they suddenly think they can see,” as AdamLeBor, a Milosevic biographer so neatly said.

"... how to talk about Iraq. Aspirations of a "quick political fix" and a speedy U.S. departure should be superseded by more realistic ambitions for a plodding but upward trajectory, buttressed by American political assistance and an expanding bilateral nonmilitary relationship. In private talks, the Obama administration should support the emergence of issues-based politics and electoral alliances -- and the public message should not relegate Iraqis and their challenges to simple sectarian or ethnic actors." O'Sullivan

The essence of the neocon delusion in the ME has always been the political science driven drivel that pronounces the old culture of the region to be dead or dying and the peoples of the Islamic World to be eagerly awaiting a "brave new world" in which Islamicate civilization and their age old national rivalries are a distant memory. The local politicians have been skilled in convincing the neocons that, they too, share this vision and ambition for themselves.

It was always hokum. It remains hokum. Having waited us out, the factional religious and ethnic politicans of Iraq are now taking advantage of our coming departure to figuratively go down to the Tigris to wash off the dye that has obscured the leopard's spots for a time.

The Iraqi Shia are not grateful for our having transfered power to them from the Sunni Arabs. Why should they be? We were eager to do it, and none more so than Meghan O'Sullivan, now ensconced at Harvard and awaiting a return to the West Wing. pl

Administration officials see a sinister new shift in Taliban strategy in the latest attacks on Pakistani nuclear scientists and engineers, key players in developing Islamabad’s strategic weaponry.

One of Pakistan’s most dangerous terrorist groups, the Tehrik-e-Taliban, has claimed responsibility for a July 2 assault when Pakistani engineers and scientists in a bus traveling on the Rawalpindi-Peshawar Road were rammed by a lone suicide bomber on a motor bike, killing six and wounding 36 others, according to press accounts confirmed by U.S. officials.

Former U.S. intelligence officials believe the Tehrik-e-Taliban were also responsible for a May 27 attack on a Lahore police station and the local office of Pakistan’s ISI intelligence service, killing 15 police officers, one ISI lt. colonel and 10 other persons.

Other Tehrik-e-Taliban targets include the Kahuta Research Laboratories which built Pakistan’s nuclear bombs, weapons grade uranium and long-range missiles, along with the Army-run Mechanical Complex at Taxila, both built with Chinese assistance.

“The terrorists are sending a clear message: they can strike where they want, what they want, and when they want,” said an administration official.

18 July 2009

"If extremists realize "some of the limitations that we have, that's a vulnerability they could use against us," a senior U.S. military intelligence official said. "The fact is that some of these are very politically sensitive targets" thought to be close to the Shiite-dominated Iraqi government of Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki.

The new guidelines are a reflection of rising tensions between the two governments. Iraqi leaders increasingly see the agreement as an opportunity to show their citizens that they are now unequivocally in charge and that their dependence on the U.S. military is minimal and waning. " WaPo

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The US generals do not seem to understand yet that their presence and the presence of our forces are not desired in Iraq. And this from the Shia dominated government that we "purple fingered" into existence and defended against the Sunni Arab insurgents that we later brought over to our side and are now gradually abandoning.

Let's see---

They don't want our forces in the country. They don't want to be "allied" to us an any meaningful way.

They still loathe the Israelis and would never, NEVER accept the idea of the US cooperating with Israel against Iran in any way that invloves their territory or facilities.

They pursue their age old pursuit of private gain at public expense. Reform? Sure, "why not?" they would say.

The OIL? We can buy it at market prices like everyone else.

What did we gain in Iraq? Tell me. I am reminded of all the clever, self-serving people who told me six months or a year into this fiasco that whatever had been the narrative leading to the Iraq War, we were "in it now." All you geniuses who said that, how do you feel about the narrative in Afghanistan?

"The former official said Ross's move to the NSC was in discussion before the Riyadh summit. "But the meeting may have been 'the final straw,' he said. "People at the NSC will obviously strenuously dispute that, but Dennis Ross is saying it to everybody. That's his narrative about the NSC and I have heard it from a number of people."" FP

"Former official?" Is there anyone out there who can't figure out who that is?

Very amusing... As I have said, the battle of the narratives is on. The neocon crowd with their love of propaganda and deception know that to dominate and win in the battle of the narratives is to win all.

So... Who set Obama up for a failure in the Saudi visit? Was it the proprietors of the "Saudi Arabia and the other Arabs agree with Israel about Iran crowd?" Or was it the "Let's be careful about this crowd?"

Is Dennis Ross the newly appointed and anointed "tsar" of US Middle East policy or is he positioned for the "high jump" based on a miserable performance in this and other distortions of US policy? We shall see... pl

17 July 2009

"June is never a good month on the plains. It was 46ºC in Fortress Islamabad a fortnight ago. The hundreds of security guards manning roadblocks and barriers were wilting, sweat pouring down their faces as they waved cars and motorbikes through. The evening breeze brought no respite. It, too, was unpleasantly warm, and it was difficult not to sympathise with those who, defying the law, jumped into the Rawal Lake, the city’s main reservoir, in an attempt to cool down. Further south in Lahore it was even hotter, and there were demonstrations when the generator at Mangla that sporadically supplies the city with electricity collapsed completely." Tariq Ali

16 July 2009

The CIA, "the Christians In Action," the Klingons," or whatever nickname you prefer for them. I'm not one of them, never was, and I like to make jokes about having caught the odd DO man making a truthful statement from time to time, but the weirdness over the "ASSASINATION PROGRAM" is silly.

A few points:

- CIA thought up this plan AFTER 9/11. That means that they were not set up to kill people before that cataclysmic date. Did you follow that? Forget the movies. CIA is a civilian agency of government that spies on foreign governments using people. Spying is not killing. The law also charters them for a wide variety of covert political actions, but killing is not one of them. The same set of laws require the president of the United States to specifically authorize them to do anything like that in each instance. This is called a "finding" in the law and the law requires the notification of the intelligence oversight committees of the House and Senate BEFORE the finding is acted on.

- The CIA never got the plan past the Power Point stage. There was no "project." Bob Baer is reported to have commented that "the project" was simply nothing more than an idea that Bush approved. There was no training conducted. There was no target planning. There was "no nothing" except a nocturnal emission on the part of a few people who "dreamt the impossible dream." This concept would have required extensive support from the armed forces. Most CIA ventures into what they call the "paramilitary" field have required A LOT of military support and this one would have been no different. "The Bourne ______," this was not.

- So, it seems that Cheney ordered the CIA to abstain from properly briefing Congress on a plan that was just BS. How dumb is that? This was especially weird because at that time the Congress was pathetically eager to approve anything that might demonstrate that, they too, were brimming over with testosterone.

- Why did "the project" never happen? I suspect that it was because there was a great deal of internal resistance at CIA to the idea. "Who, us?" This would have been the reaction. "Get the military to do it..." As usual. If forced to do this, CIA would probably have "borrowed" a lot of people from General McChrystal's former empire, given them the task covered by the "finding" and then stood back as far from the killing as they could manage. There are bones abandoned on far off hilltops that could tell you how this works if only they could speak again.

There is so much nonsense being said about this that it is hard to listen. pl

14 July 2009

11 July 2009

"Several officials said McChrystal's assessment of shortfalls in Afghanistan will be outlined in broad terms, citing the need to expand and train the Afghan force along with proposed solutions to make that happen.

In addition to trainers and advisers, he is also expected to outline organizational changes for U.S. troops and the need for enhanced language, intelligence and other skills.

McChrystal, who has spent most of his career in special operations units, is backing a proposal by Adm. Eric T. Olson, head of the U.S. Special Operations Command, to replace the current Navy and Air Force commanders of at least half of the 12 U.S. provincial reconstruction teams (PRTs) in Afghanistan with Special Operations officers who served previous tours in Afghanistan and have training in at least one of its two languages, Dari and Pashto. " Washpost

"Counterinsurgency" as a developed modern doctrine of warfare was created in the aftermath of World War II as a system of defense against "Wars of National Liberation" that erupted across the world as various peoples rose against European colonialism. The French in Indochina and Algeria, the British in Malaya, Cyprus, Palestine/Israel, etc. were among the foremost developers of this doctrine. In its fullest form the doctrine can be reduced to three basic elements; 1-Political warfare designed to eliminate the symbolic causes of revolt. This would include such efforts as a reduction of public corruption, adequate representation in government for all parts of the population, etc. 2- Economic development that provides incomes sufficiently large for the masses so that they are not inclined to risk the hazards of support for insurgents. 3- Counterguerrilla operations. Such operations must be a hazard for the insurgents and NOT for the population. We have not been doing well at that in Afghanistan. These counterguerrilla operations are conducted so as to provide a protective "screen" behind which "1" and "2" can occur.

Basically what is attempted in this doctrine is the construction of a society that is more attractive and viable than that promised by the insurgents. This is a big job, especially in a country like Afghanistan where much of what has to be done has not been done before. "Education" alone, "education" in the Western sense will be a massive long term project. IMO, the whole counterinsurgency thing, if applied successfully in Afghanistan will require a commitment of a century of effort by dedicated civilian and military personnel and many, many billions of dollars. A perhaps minor (not to me) effect of such efforts is that generations of very specialized officers and civilian officials are always produced to man such programs. These people inevitably come to empathize with "the natives" to some extent and are likely to find that the better they are at their work, the more suspicious their own side will be of them.

"Counterinsurgency" made some sense for the European colonial empires. They "owned" the places where they tried this method. They were fighting to retain what they saw as their property. Whatever "investments" they made in the colony seemed worthwhile because they would be retained in the empire. The US tried applying these methods in various post-colonial settings with varying success. In Latin America, there was a good deal of success in the '60s. In Vietnam one can argue endlessly over the results. In all the American attempts, one thing was universally true. The US had no intention of retaining control of the area under contention. The Left will argue that this is untrue, but they are wrong.

In Iraq, the US has gained nothing of economic value and is rapidly surrendering control of the governance of Iraq to a government that is not truly friendly. The outcome of last week's oil service contract auction should be instructive to those who think the US (as opposed to the looters granted no-bid contracts to batten on US money) has gained anything of value in Iraq. And how much have we spent there to date? How high is the butcher's bill as of today?

It is the same in Afghanistan. Fantasize all you like... There is nothing in Aghanistan that the US wants or needs other than the ability to disrupt Al-Qa'ida's further plotting against our own soil.

As I wrote earlier this week, there is a massive subterranean fire burning in the US government between two factions. These are; those generals who have now embraced "Counterinsurgency" and nation building as an acceptable and "clever" think to do, the neocons (still seeking the path to revolution in the Islamic World), and various pseudo-academic "experts on counterinsurgency." On the other hand there are those who think a US Counterinsurgency War in Afghanistan makes no sense at all. Why? Too much money! Too long! Too much blood! We are now too poor for such foolishness. And for what? So that American can further beggar itself?

President Obama should think long and hard about General McChrystal's conversion to nation building.

It would be sad to see Obama leave office as a one term president. As the man said "Look homeward angel." Look homeward. pl

10 July 2009

"Derivatives are financial instruments whose value derives from something else, such as a mortgage-backed security or a commodity like oil. The allure of the over-the-counter derivative, as opposed to those swapped on exchanges, is that it can be individually negotiated and tailored to meet the specific needs of the buyer.

Geithner said the ease with which derivatives were bought and sold in an era of easy credit encouraged financial institutions and investors to take on too much risk. At the same time, government regulators weren't given the proper tools to mitigate those risks and protect the American consumer, he said.

"The complexity of the instruments overwhelmed the checks and balances of risk management and supervision," he said.

The administration's proposal, part of a broader overhaul package, has run up against much of the financial industry, which says it would raise costs and squash innovation." Yahoo News

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For me, the best were the Credit Default Swaps that were sold by financial houses to people who did not own the underlying asset. These "insurance" intruments allowed the same asset to be insured as many times as desired. As a result, the same asset could be "insured" fifty or a hundred times. An analogy would be that everyone on your block might insure your life if they wished, and without informing you as well.

Monte Carlo? Las Vegas? The Mississippi coast casinos in the pre-Katrina days? This whirlwind of fraud was ridden by people so arrogant or foolish as to believe that they could "time" the collapse and escape. Some of them managed to do that. "Into the valley of death rode the six hundred..." Madness. pl

"The 15 percent drop in oil prices since the end of June was the longest and steepest decline so far in 2009. Prices had been rising since February, more than doubling from lows hit near $33,as traders started to price in an eventual recovery.

But many analysts cautioned prices had risen ahead of the real economy, with unemployment still climbing and global oil inventories mounting up.

The fragile state of the global economy dominated the annual G8 summit, with the United States, Japan, Germany, France, Britain, Italy, Canada and Russia acknowledging there were still significant risks to financial stability.

OPEC's 2009 World Oil Outlook has added to the gloom as it said world demand for oil may take years to recover from the slump in 2009 because of economic weakness and demand destruction." Reuters

07 July 2009

Michael Oren, Israel's ambassador to the US is a dual Israeli/US national. I am curious to know if people think there is a conflict of interest inherent in that. I first met him when he was a young IDF General Staff intelligence captain working in the IDF headquarters in Tel Aviv. He was from upstate New York and had emigrated to Israel after finishing college in the States.

He has continued to serve as an IDF reserve intelligence officer while pursuing an academic and writing career. He is clearly an "America" specialist for them.

06 July 2009

I used to see him in the Army and Navy Club in Washington, the one on Farragut Square. He lunched there until he was well into his eighties. I was always surprised at the emotion that the sight of him brought to me. Overwhelming sadness, grief, a desire to avert my eyes from someone who was complicit in so much heartless cruel foolishness, these feelings always welled up.

I understand that he felt remorse, remorse for the Japanese cities that he helped Lemay destroy with the firestorms the B-29s were so good at creating. The Japanese were despicable in much of their conduct in that war, but no population deserves what they got.

And then there was our war. You know who you are. This mathmatical prodigy had it all figured out. He and his systems analysis and operations research "children" worked it all out on blackboards and primitive mainframe computers. If there were enough "inputs," then by a date certain, the "output" would be North Vietnamese surrender. I have been told many times that the date certain produced as prediction by these methods arrived sometime in 1967 or 1968. I forget which. I was told that before I left for Vietnam the first time. The problem in his reasoning was that those little NVA buggers in green fatigues and fiber helmets were not calculating the costs and the benefits. They gave it all, all they had, as many of us did.

"Vice President Joe Biden signaled that the Obama administration would not stand in the way if Israel chose to attack Iran's nuclear facilities, even as the top U.S. military officer said any attack on Iran would be destabilizing.

Biden's remarks suggested a tougher U.S. stance against Iran's nuclear ambitions, but administration officials denied that. Instead, White House officials said, his televised remarks Sunday simply reflected the U.S. view that Israel had a right to defend itself and make its own decisions on national security." LA Times

Is Biden warning the Iranians that US patience is coming to an end? That is the only way his statements make sense to me.

Only the truly egregious and ignorant think that an Israeli/Iranian air war would not involve the United States. The presence of US forces in the countries adjoining Iran ensures that such a war would affect the US profoundly. That being the case, it follows that Israel, as a junior partner of the US and recipient of a mountain of American money and materiel CAN NOT be given a free hand to start such a war without US consent.

Without large scale US operational and logistical assistance Israel can put a hundred planes over Natanz once, maybe twice in smaller numbers. It's a long way out there. Is the US going to give the Israelis overflight clearance for Iraq? What would our "good buddy" Maliki say about that? In Biden's words, Iraq is also a "sovereign country." What about Search Air Rescue support for aircraft that experience mechanical failure or battle damage? The US will let them recover on Iraqi air bases?

Either Joe Biden was a messenger or they need to find a big enough gag for him. pl

05 July 2009

- The ongoing hagiology developing around the death of Michael Jackson threatens to engulf the earth. What's next, a national holiday, a state funeral with Jackson's flag draped casket carried up the stairs into the capitol rotunda by soldiers just back from the wars? The 24/7 news are whirling like dervishes in their role as national mourners. Is NAMBLA going to have a memorial "float" in the Los Angeles spectacular for Jackson?

- Then there is Sarah Palin... William Kristol can spin as hard as he will but she just plain quit. The whole thing was too tough an experience for her. On "Fox News sunday" (FNS) today, Kristol's "familiar" Stephen Hayes, parted company with Kristol over Palin. Hayes pronounced her dead meat (paraphrasing) on the political stage. The Country Wing of the Republican Party respects strength. Contrary to much opinion on the Left and Right coasts of the United States, the people in "flyover" America (Palin country) are quite willing to vote for a woman. They are as willing to do that as many of them were to vote for Barack Obama. This does not mean that they are prepared to vote for for a weakling.

- Just beneath the surface there is a turf fire smouldering in Washington over strategy in the two wars. On the one hand the neoconistas in exile are log rolling for acceptance by Obama of their continuing vision of onrushing (their view) social revolution in the Islamic World brought on by the use of massive American military force, first in Iraq and now in the war yet to be in Afghanistan. They clearly think, or wish to think, that they were right all the time and that the "Surge" in numbers of American troops in Iraq and the resurrection of the old, old doctrine of counterinsurgency re-established their "timeline" for triumphal change. Ah CHANGE! Oh blessed word! In truth, the main factor in bringing about a reduction in Sunni zealot violence in Iraq was American success in splitting off most of the Sunni Arab insurgents from support of Al-Qa'ida in Iraq. Money, money and more money as well as a sympathetic attitude resulted in a successful rental of many of these groups. THEY shut down al-Qa'ida in Iraq. Now, our rentals know that we are leaving. They know that their paychecks are increasingly going to be in the hands of the Shia dominated government that the US is leaving behind. That government is sending the Sunni Arabs mixed signals as to what its attitudes and policies will be. So, the Sunni Arabs are sending the Shia government signals as well. That is how things are done in the Middle East. Are our rentals participating in the recent attacks? Probably not, not yet. What they are doing, thus far, is looking the other way. In Afghanistan, the neocon types want a war that reproduces what they imagine happend in Iraq. They want a lot more US troops. They want a combined military/civilian presence that reaches all significant population centers in the country. They want an open ended commitment to nation building in a country that possesses very little human or physical infrastructure. They want to create an Afghanistan so prosperous, unified and "progressive" that it will automatically reject violent Islamic zealotry. Could such a thing be done? Maybe, but the bill both at the butcher shop and at the treasury would be stunning, perhaps lethal for the United States. On the other hand, Obama's actual policy in Afghanistan seems to be true to his public statements. According to those statements there will not be many more troops for Afghanistan than the 70,000. Our focus will be on disruption of our real enemies and the goal will be to withdraw from Afghanistan by the end of Obama's term leaving behind USAID and a military training group. No nation building will occur except as part of an international consortium. Will there be more "rentals," this time in Afghniatan? I cetainly hope there will be more rentals. This strategy is not welcome to the more agressive generals and is anathema to the neocons. In response the neocons are seeking to establish their version of "what Obama said" as reality. They are doing it in all the media. The man in the middle in all this is General Jones, the national security adviser. It has been decided by the neocons that Jones is a problem and that he must go. To that end he is being portrayed by them in the media as a loser who should be removed. I doubt if Obama is dumb enough to accept that judgment.

- Admiral Mullen the Chairman of the JCS was on the Sunday Newsies today. He has problems. He does not seem to accept the fact that he is not in the chain of command. Under the Goldwater-Nichols Law the chain of command runs from the President of the United States to the Secretary of Defense to the combatant commanders and other unified or specified comanders. The Chairman of the JCS is an adviser and staff offcer. The troops are not "his troops" as he often says. They are the president's troops. HE is commander in chief. Nevertheless, Admiral Mullen holds a grand office and is the most senior officer of the armed forces. On both FNS and on CNN today he was badgerd with questions that were altogether policy questions involving national strategy nd policy. Deciding such matters is not his job. It is the president's job. The president should be battered in the search for answers, not Admiral Mullen. On CNN, John King stood Admiral Mullen in front of an electronic map like a second lieutenant giving a briefing while King grilled him from some distant place. Is this not disrespect to the armed forces? Is there no one left in this country who has any sense of what "appropriate" means?

- The head of the Statue of Liberty re-opened yesterday for visitors. Good. pl

04 July 2009

03 July 2009

Dennis Ross: Goodbye and Good riddance. After much fussing around, and consulting with a wide range of Washington types, I am now convinced that we can lift our glasses and toast Dennis Ross' departure from his desk outside the principal's office at the State Department. I am told, by several people, whose access to the corridors of power at Foggy Bottom are unasailable, that Ross was, to put it in straightforward lingo, dumped, fired, kicked the hell out. He did something that clearly crossed the line, and was working at cross-purposes to Secretary of State Clinton and special envoy Mitchell. Maybe he also crossed Richard Holbrooke. I hope to get more of the inside details soon, but for now, I am convinced by these sources, that Ross was dumped, and that it was the AIPAC/WINEP crowd that had to be somewhat appeased, by giving Ross a desk at the National Security Council, somewhat equivalent to a cell with a view at one of those old Soviet gulags.

02 July 2009

"Lo and behold, it was not the Egyptians attacking Liberty. It was our allies, the Israelis. Liberty was flying the largest American flag I had ever seen in my 26 years of service and her name was clearly visible on the stern.

As the flight leader, I flew over the burning ship at less than 100 feet and observed many wounded or dead sailors on the decks. There were many holes throughout the ship as a result of the attack.

Our attack was aborted because Israel transmitted to American authorities that they thought Liberty was an Egyptian ship. They had made a mistake. This was not a mistake. The unarmed Liberty was monitoring electronic signals and steaming in international waters. This was an attempt to curtail information on Six Day War progress to our leadership.

The day following the dastardly attack on Liberty, America pulled alongside, extinguished fires, provided aid to the wounded and recovered 37 American bodies for proper disposition." Gordon L. Murray, Captain, USN, (Ret.)

01 July 2009

"National security adviser James L. Jones told U.S. military commanders here last week that the Obama administration wants to hold troop levels here flat for now, and focus instead on carrying out the previously approved strategy of increased economic development, improved governance and participation by the Afghan military and civilians in the conflict."

"The day before in Kabul, Jones delivered the same message to Gen. Stanley A. McChrystal, the new overall commander in Afghanistan. McChrystal has undertaken a 60-day review designed to address all the issues in the war. In addition, Jones has told Secretary of Defense Robert M. Gates and Adm. Michael Mullen, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, that they should focus on implementing the current strategy, completing the review and getting more Afghan forces involved in the fight before requesting additional U.S. troops for Afghanistan.

The question of the force level for Afghanistan, however, is not settled and will probably be hotly debated over the next year. One senior military officer said privately that the United States would have to deploy a force of more than 100,000 to execute the counterinsurgency strategy of holding areas and towns after clearing out the Taliban insurgents. That is at least 32,000 more than the 68,000 currently authorized. " Woodward

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Jones appears to be the "flavor of the week." He was on the "Newshour" a few nights ago for a major interview. Now he appears in this story by Woodward highlighting his role. Some of this "attention" is defensive and intended to fend off "log-rolling" by the usual people seeking to cause his departure from the NSC. He is suspected of insufficient devotion to Israel and so we have had stories planted here and there about a lack of warmth between him and the president, etc. This is a bit of a corrective.

At the same time, Jones (in Woodward's story) gives firm guidance to the military chain of command in the matter of Afghanistan. The message is clear. Afghanistan will be an "economy of force" theater of operations. McChrystal will not get a lot more troops than his 70,000 odd. He is to concentrate on disruption of groups actually hostile to the US. Obama (and Jones) do not want to reproduce Iraq/Vietnam in Afghanistan. The wondrous wonderfulness of Counterinsurgency (COIN) as a panacea appeals greatly to today's officers. Military officers are always looking to get promoted. They climb onto any "bandwagon" rolling in the right direction. Today the "bandwagon" has "COIN" painted on the side. Tomorrow? Who knows what fell beast of brooding is slouching toward the dawn of some new doctrinal "revolution." While McChrystal is occupied with this limited task, an emphasis will be placed on economic development under the aegis of an international consortium of donors. The theory is that properity will reduce the attractiveness of Islamic zealotry. Will it? Perhaps..

In any event, I think that the policy in Afghanistan reiterated by Jones is the wisest available. Will it be possible to resist the temptation to increase the size of the force there? Perhaps. The generals will make endless pleas for more people. They always do. pl