“At CES we believe that we will see many players attempt to mimic Apple’s model, with promises of content integration, battery life and software that will ultimately fall short,” Reitzes writes. “Outside of Apple, we believe many tablets will not meet bullish sales expectations. Like MP3 players, we believe some investors may learn the hard way that Apple’s ability to marry content, software, hardware design and style is unmatched in the tech sector. We believe that the evolution of the tablet market will look more like the iPod market than the phone market-–with Apple set to dominate.”

That seems a relatively safe prediction given what we’ve seen of the market to date–more so given the next-generation iPad will likely arrive at market around the same time as a lot of these new first-generation tablets. Reitzes figures the iPad 2 will be announced in the next six weeks, along with an April ship date. And he also expects it to feature front- and rear-facing cameras, a USB port and a higher-resolution display.

As far as 2011 tablet sales go, Reitzes is looking for upward of 38 million units, with the iPad accounting for about 60 percent. That’s about 23 million, which Reitzes says is likely quite conservative.

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