Romania

Strong economic growth in the first quarter of 2019 came as a surprise and has prompted an upward revision of the wiiw forecast to 4.1% for the current year. The government has eased the rules of extra taxes on the financial sector which improved economic expectations. But manufacturing production and exports are losing steam due to sluggish foreign demand and increasing unit labour costs. Fiscal and current account deficits are rising but manageable with an expected consolidation in 2020 at the latest.

FORECAST*

Main Economic Indicators

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

Population, 1000 persons

19702

19587

19500

.

.

.

GDP, real change in %

4.8

7.0

4.1

4.1

3.6

3.3

GDP per capita (EUR at PPP)

17400

18800

19900

.

.

.

Gross industrial production, real change in %

3.1

7.9

3.5

.

.

.

Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average

5.9

4.9

4.2

3.8

3.8

4.0

Average gross monthly wages, EUR

626

705

964

.

.

.

Consumer prices, % p.a.

-1.1

1.1

4.1

4.0

3.0

3.0

Fiscal balance in % of GDP

-2.7

-2.7

-3.0

.

.

.

Public debt in % of GDP

37.3

35.2

35.0

.

.

.

Current account in % of GDP

-2.1

-3.2

-4.5

-4.8

-4.6

-4.7

FDI inflow, EUR mn

5656

5225

5801

.

.

.

Gross external debt in % of GDP

54.5

51.9

49.0

.

.

.

Basic data are continuously updated.

* Forecasts are changed beginning of March, July and November. See Press Conferences.

ROMANIA: Who pays the bill for fiscal loosening?

Strong economic growth in the first quarter of 2019 came as a surprise and has prompted an upward revision of the wiiw forecast to 4.1% for the current year. The government has eased the rules of extra taxes on the financial sector which improved economic expectations. But manufacturing production and exports are losing steam due to sluggish foreign demand and increasing unit labour costs. Fiscal and current account deficits are rising but manageable with an expected consolidation in 2020 at the latest.