Road death trend in the United States: implied effects of prevention

Abstract

This study estimates road deaths prevented by U.S. vehicle safety regulations, state laws, and other efforts based on comparison of actual deaths to those predicted from temperature and precipitation effects on exposure, migration to warmer areas, population growth, median age of the population, and vehicle mix. Logistic regression of risk factors predictive of road deaths in 1961, prior to the adoption of federal vehicle safety regulations, state behavioral change laws, and other preventive efforts were used to predict deaths in subsequent years given the changing prevalence of the risk factors from 1962 to 2015. The included risk factors are strong predictors of road death risk. Without the preventive efforts, an additional 5.8 million road deaths would likely have occurred in the U.S. from the initiation of federal safety standards for new vehicles in 1968 through 2015.

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