Our previous poll, conducted Monday through Thursday of last week, found the race tied at 48 percent. Although Romney and Obama have each led at times, the two candidates have stayed within the margin of error since the spring.

Independents break for Romney by 15 points, 47 percent to 32 percent.

Across the 10 states identified by POLITICO as competitive, Obama leads 49 percent to 43 percent.

On the generic congressional ballot, Republicans edge Democrats by 47 percent to 46 percent. It was tied last week.

An identical number of voters approve of the president’s job performance, 49 percent, as disapprove.

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But there is a solution: Don’t bother helping them; let them jump off the bridges,

Monkey Wrench

If you believe in polls, then Obama has a small but persistent lead in enough states to get more than 270 electorial college votes. I thought the general consensus on this site is that polls are not accurate.

J

I remember the night of the 2000 election when the press asked President Bush what would happen to him if he was not elected. He replied, with surprise, “I have a life, I’m Governor of Texas and a great family, I’ll be fine. I have a life.”.
Hopefully, Romney will win, but just as President Bush, Romney has a wonderful life.

Noovuss

#2 Monkey Wrench

Polls with 11+ Dem sample? Those polls?

Tighterlines64

I can honestly say it felt so good to do my duty and vote this morning. I just wish there would have been a NBP at the door. It would have been even more rewarding to let it know I would be voting for Romney.

NeoKong

The final sack of lies before their big parade of tears.
For the last three months all these leftie pundits have been doing is talking to themselves to try and reassure themselves Obama will win.
When reality slaps them in the face tonight around midnight they will be in shock.
Shock and awwwwwwww…

Monkey Wrench

Everyone should post their prediction on the final electorial college count. Not what you want to happen, but what will happen.

I tend to believe the polls, so i predict Obama will get 306. Much less than he got in 2008.

Monkey Wrench

#4

Yes. Those polls are included in the average of all the polls.

Blythe

Scroll through the cross-tabs. The sample appears to be D+7.5 (R400/I170/D430).

If the 2012 electorate is, in fact, D+7.5 then Obama will probably win. If I recall correctly, the 2008 electorate was D+7. So this poll projects that the the Democrats have actually increased their proportion of the electorate since 2008. Possible, but not likely. And certainly inconsistent with all other data indicating increased Republican turnout.

Listening to some of the dem pundits this morning, it struck me that a lot of these people actually have no idea how bad Obama has been. I guess that’s what happens when everything you see/hear is filtered through the main stream media.

As for a prediction – impossible for 2 reasons:
– skewed, unreliable polling
– no way to calculate “the margin of corruption” (as Pat Caddell called it last night on O’Reilly)

Monkey Wrench

#12

Oh come on. Give us a prediction. Surely there is some polling data that is not skewed. What about Rasmussen or Fox News polls?

What everyone seems to be assuming, is that the +7.5 (or however many) dems turning out to vote is going to automatically help obama.

This assumes that ALL dems are voting for o, and that’s just crazy.

They have been just as “hammered” (as Fauxcohantas likes to say) as everyone else by o’s policies.

That and the fact that o acts like a horse’s ass most of the time will turn many reasonable dems (and there are one or two out there) into Romney voters for at least one day.

Tom

Actually if you go to the poll results Romney is up in the Politico poll 48-47. The story says 47-47 but the actual poll results indicate Romney us up +1. Here it is copied directly from their poll on pg 5

7. If the Presidential election were held today and you had to make a choice, for whom would you vote…
(ROTATE NAMES)
–Mitt Romney, the Republican,
or
— Barack Obama, the Democrat?
Romney/definitely ……………………….. 44%
IF “UNDECIDED”, ASK: Romney /probably …………………………. 4%
And which candidate do you Romney/lean …………………………………….. *
lean toward slightly?
UNDECIDED (DNR) …………………….. 6%
IF CHOICE MADE, ASK:
Would you say that you are Obama/lean …………………………………… 1%
definitely going to vote Obama/probably ……………………………. 2%
for him, or probably Obama/definitely …………………………. 44%
going to vote for him?

Add it up yourself. 48 for Romney (44+4) and 47 for Obama (44+2+1). Another misleading story from Politico

Sandy

I believe the Republican Internal Polls. Romney is gonna win this and Media has made certain that there will be violence by oversampling Dems to give the appearance of an Obama victory.

Jane

Spider: I just voted in Poughkeepsie, New York. Voted for Romney, Wendy Long ( she was much better than Kirsten Gillibrand in the debate) Nan Hayworth, Neil Decarlo for State Senate.

I predict if Romney wins your mom will kick you out of her basement. If zippy wins you’ll never grow the f up!

Granny

#18 – Ever hear the saying that “there are three kinds of lies – lies, damned lies and statistics”?

Well, polls are statistics. You can make them say pretty much anything you want them to say.

What the answers to the Politico poll – or any other – are isn’t anywhere near as important as what was asked, how it was asked and who it was asked of.

Two things are of paramount importance – the Dem/Independent/Republican breakdown and the margin of error. The higher the margin of error, the smaller the sample was and the less reliable the poll. Nearly all of the polls are using the D/I/R percentages from 2008, ignoring both the D/I/R from 2010, which was drastically different, and the surveys that show a current D/I/R that is closer to 33/33/33.

Ohio Paul

Ohio Early voting – Romney has 75,000 lead where McCain lost the early voting by 365,000 votes – Still not even close to having all the precincts reporting in, especially rural ones and my county of Butler (55 of 318 reporting ) that went for McCain by 44,000 in 2008 Cuyahoga county huge Democrat base, has only 745 of 1063 reportinghttp://news.cincinnati.com/article/20121106/NEWS010601/311060015/Ohio-presidential-vote-by-counties

Monkey Wrench

#23

You really live up to your name. You might want to consider counseling. Doesn’t take much to push you over the edge. Given the adolescent nature of your insult, your comment looks like a classic case of projection.

I predict a Romney win with Romney taking FL, NC, VA, OH, IA, and CO. I believe that is 281 EVs. If the electorate is R+5 or R+6 as Rasmussen and Gallup suggested then it will be a blowout for Romney with 300+ EVs. I think Obama needs a D+5 electorate to compensate for his deficiencies with the independent vote. He does not have D+5 this year.

FWIW, I am in Colorado which was D+9 in 2008. Romney is winning comfortably in early voting and all indications are that Romney will win the final election by a large margin in CO in 2012. CO is split almost evenly between D/R/I, and independents are voting for Romney by almost a 2-1 margin. It will likely be a 12-15 point swing from 2008 to 2012.

RCP average shows Obama up 1.5 in CO, which is horribly out of synch with voter registration and early voting results. Either the polls massively oversampled Democrats to obtain their preferred result or Republicans were massively overrepresented in early voting in 2012. I suspect the former.

Riddle me this: if Colorado swings by 12-15 points from 2008 to 2012, why should we not expect similar swings in the other swing states?

George

Vote and wait

Tom

#24 I understand your point and agree 100%. Point I was trying to make is Politico has a story that their poll shows a tie. The sense on the ground is polls are tied or going toward Obama with exception of Rasmussen and Gallup that have had Romney up for a while. This Politico poll should have destroyed that narrative. Problem is the story dominates that actual poll results.

I have written the author (email and tweet) and he will not reply. Makes me believe that James Hohmann (email address [email protected]) has an agenda.

Romney is an idiot. It should not be this close. Close means recounts, no senate and eventual theft of the election, but hey it’s better to wear the nice loser label afterwards.

Forget you have obvious truths against your opponent that makes him detestable. make certain there is an alligator arms, hands off on all issues bringing up these truths, effectively leaving the election a popularity contest so that the MSM can craft its FUD about Malibu.

Dumb campaigner, doesn’t Romney understand that it was a rare situation, he was the only way these things would get communicated? That he’s fighting large scale voter theft?

Strangely I have hopes that he won’t be the Rino in chief, we feared but he did do what we all feared, he played not to lose and timid.

Get out and vote!!! RYAN in 2020.
Melt down Christi for lard and give his family thirty pieces of silver. If we lose, he is the second biggest reason lose after Romney’s inability to identify what enemies he’s fighting/stupid campaign.

Hatey Hateman

You really live up to your name. You might want to consider counseling. Doesn’t take much to push you over the edge. Given the adolescent nature of your insult, your comment looks like a classic case of projection.

Lighten up, Francis! I was trying to add a little levity since you seem to want to stir up some sh!t on this blog.