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EURUSD: With EUR reversing almost all of its three-week gains to close lower the past week ,it faces the risk of declining further in the new week. This will open the door for more weakness towards the 1.3003 level, its Mar 15'2012 low. This is coming on the back of a violation of the 1.3134 level. On further weakness, the 1.2975 level will be aimed at followed by the 1.2879 level, its Jan 23’2011 low. Its weekly RSI is bearish and pointing lower suggesting further weakness. On the other hand, to annul its present downside pressure, the pair will have to break and hold above the 1.3387 level. This will leave the pair targeting the 1.3484 level with a cut through here pushing the pair further higher towards its Dec 02’2011 high at 1.3547. Further out, price extension if seen will aim at its weekly 200 ema at 1.3642. All in all, EUR remains biased to the downside having continued to maintain a nearer term bearish tone.

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EURJPY- Having broken and held below its key supports at the 107.75 level, its medium term trendline and the 106.79 level,its 200 daily ema, the risk is for EURJPY to weaken further in the days ahead. This development will leave the cross targeting the 105.63 level, its Mar 06’2012 low. A breach of here will pave the way for a push further lower towards the 104.49 level, its Dec 09’2011 high and then the 103.27 level. Its daily and weekly RSI are bearish and pointing lower supporting this view. The alternative scenario will be for the cross to break and hold above the 111.42/52 levels. If this occurs, further bullish offensive is expected towards the 112.34 level with a violation of there extending more gains towards the 113.00 and then the 114.14 level, its July 31’2011 high. All in all, EURJPY continues to hold on to its downside vulnerability as it looks to weaken further possibly towards its key support.

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US Dollar Index: Although the Index is backing off higher prices and vulnerable to the downside, it continues to hold on to its broader medium term upside. As long as it continues to trade and hold above its medium term rising trendline(blue)presently at the 78.52 level, its outlook remains higher with eyes on the 80.73 level. A violation of here will call for a run at the 81.78 level, its Jan 2012 high. A breather may occur here but if that level breaks, further upside offensive should build up towards the 83.55 level, its Aug’2011 high and possibly higher towards the 84.55 level. Alternatively, on any pullbacks, its rising trendline currently seen at 78.70 level will be targeted followed by its Feb 06’2012 low at 78.36 level with a breach turning attention to the 77.97 level and then the 76.71 level. All in all, the Index continues to retain its medium term upside bias though vulnerable.

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GBPUSD: The pair may be hesitating and threatened by the bears but continues to trade and hold above its trendline support (at 1.5803 ).As long as this continues to hold, GBP is likely to return to its key resistance at 1.6059 level. A break will resume its medium term uptrend and then target the 1.6091 level, its Nov 11’2011 high. A breach of here will turn focus to its Oct 31’2011 high at 1.6161. The alternative scenario will be a break and hold below the mentioned trendline. This will turn focus to the 1.5772 level, its Mar 22’2012 low where a breach will aim at the 1.5601 level. This zone may hold on retests but if violated, further lower prices will shape up towards the 1.5497 level, its Jan 10’2012 high. On the whole, the pair continues to hold on to its broader medium term uptrend but faces price hesitation.

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USDCAD: As referenced in our earlier analysis, unless we see USDCAD break and hold above the 1.0048 level, our bias remains lower. This will leave the pair targeting the 0.9840 level, its Mar 01’2011 low. A decisive violation of here will aim at the 0.9804 level, its Sept 19’2011 low. Further down, on continued weakness support lies at the 0.9779 level, its Sept 16’2011 low. Its daily RSI is bearish and pointing lower supporting this view. On the upside, the pair will have to climb above the 1.0033/48 levels to annul its present bearishness and then bring further gains towards the 1.0146 level. Further out, resistance resides at the 1.0250 level and then the.0317 level followed by the 1.0423 level, its Dec 14’2011 high. All in all, the pair remains vulnerable to the downside in the short term.

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EURUSD: With EUR selling off and reversing its Thursday gains, the risk is for the pair to decline further towards the 1.3033/03 levels. We may see price hesitation at this level but if taken out, further declines should target the 1.2975 level where a violation will call for a run at the 1.2879 level, its Jan 23’2011 low. Its daily RSI is bearish and pointing lower supporting this view. On the other hand, to annul its present downside pressure, EUR will have to break and hold above the 1.3210 level and the 1.3387 level. This if see will leave the pair targeting the 1.3484 level with a cut through here pushing it further higher towards its Dec 02’2011 high at 1.3547. Further out, price extension if seen will aim at its weekly 200 ema at 1.3642. All in all, EUR remains biased to the downside having continued to maintain a nearer term bearish tone.

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USDCHF: We continue to hold on to our broader downside bias on USDCHF although it is seen attempting a recovery higher. As long as the 0.9331 level remains as resistance, the pair’s weakness started from the 0.9591 level remains intact. This leaves the 0.8929 level, its Feb 24’2012 low as the next downside target on ending its price recovery. Further down, support comes in at the 0.8890 level, its Nov 03’2011 low where a breach will call for further declines towards the 0.8700 level, its psycho level. On the upside, the pair will have to return above the 0.9331 level to resume its recovery. This will open the door for a run at the 0.9504 level, its Jan 13’2012 low and then the 0.9591 level. On the whole, the pair remains biased to the downside below its key resistance.

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GBPJPY – With GBPJPY selling off and following through lower on the back of its Friday losses, the risk is for it to weaken further towards its key support located at the 126.53 level. Further down, support lies at the 125.45 level followed by the 124.50 level and then the 122.02 level, its Jan 25’2012 high. Its daily RSI is bearish and pointing lower suggesting further declines. Alternatively, the cross will have to break and hold above the 133.46 level to put on hold its present downside and trigger further gains. A cut through there will call for a run at the 135.09 level. Further upside offensive above here will call for a run at 136.97 level and subsequently its April’2011 high at 139.99. All in all, the cross remains biased to the downside as it looks to weaken further.

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USDCHF: With USDCHF failing at higher level prices and declining to close on Monday, the risk is for it to weaken further. As long as the 0.9331 level remains as resistance, the pair’s weakness started from the 0.9591 level remains intact. This leaves the 0.8929 level, its Feb 24’2012 low as the next downside target. Further down, support comes in at the 0.8890 level, its Nov 03’2011 low where a breach will call for further declines towards the 0.8700 level, its psycho level. On the upside, the pair will have to return above the 0.9331 level to resume its recovery. This will open the door for a run at the 0.9504 level, its Jan 13’2012 low and then the 0.9591 level. On the whole, the pair remains biased to the downside below its key resistance.

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EURUSD: Weakens, Broadly Biased To The Downside Short Term (Daily Technical Strategis

EURUSD: Our outlook on EUR remains lower for a likely return to the 1.3003/the 1.2975 levels. This view remains valid as long as the pair continues to hold and trade below the 1.3387 level and its long term falling trendline. This suggests that a decisive break and hold below the mentioned support could see the pair weakening further towards the 1.2879 level, its Jan 23’2011 low. On the other hand, to annul its downside pressure, the pair will have to break and hold above the 1.3387 level. This will leave it targeting the 1.3484 level with a cut through here pushing the pair further higher towards its Dec 02’2011 high at 1.3547. Further out, price extension if seen will aim at its weekly 200 ema at 1.3642. All in all, EUR remains biased to the downside short term.

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GBPUSD: With a strong rally seeing GBP extending its upside offensive on Wednesday, the risk of returning to its key resistance residing at the 1.6059 level is likely. Above here will trigger its medium term uptrend resumption towards its Oct 31’2011 high at 1.6161. Its daily RSI is bearish and pointing higher supporting this view. On the downside, below its mentioned trendline and the 1.5642/53 levels, its Feb 14/15’2012 lows, the pair should weaken further towards the 1.5497 level, its Jan 10’2012 high. On the upside, the pair will have to break and hold above the 1.6059 level to trigger its medium term uptrend resumption towards its Oct 31’2011 high at 1.6161. On the whole, the pair continues to hold on to its medium term uptrend as it looks to strengthen further.

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GBPUSD: With the pair continuing to hold on to its bullish tone and trading above its key resistance at the 1.6059 level, there is risk of further strength in the days ahead. This will call for a move further higher towards its Oct 31’2011 high at 1.6161. Its daily RSI is bullish and pointing higher supporting this view. On the downside, below its trendline and the 1.5642/53 levels, its Feb 14/15’2012 lows will have to occur to reverse its present bull the pair should weaken further towards the 1.5497 level, its Jan 10’2012 high. On the upside, the pair will have to break and hold above the 1.6059 level to trigger its medium term uptrend resumption towards its Oct 31’2011 high at 1.6161. On the whole, the pair continues to hold on to its medium term uptrend as it looks to strengthen further.

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USDCAD: With USDCAD reversing its previous week gains to close lower on Friday, the risk is for further declines to shape up towards the 0.9840 level. A decisive violation of the 0.9840 level will pave the way for further declines towards the 0.9804 level, its Sept 19’2011 low. Further down, support lies at the 0.9779 level, its Sept 16’2011 low with a breach targeting the 0.9724 level, its Aug 31'2011 low. Its weekly RSI is bearish and pointing lower supporting this view. On the upside, the pair will have to climb above the 1.0033/48 levels to annul its present bearishness and bring further gains towards the 1.0146 level. Further out, resistance resides at the 1.0250 level and then the 1.0317 level followed by the 1.0423 level, its Dec 14’2011 high. All in all, the pair remains vulnerable to the downside as it looks to weaken further.

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EURUSD: Stages A Recovery, Sets Up For The 1.3387 Level (Weekly Technical Outlook)

EURUSD: Although EUR closed higher the past week on correction, it continues to look vulnerable. While its recovery is capped by the 1.3387 level, our outlook on EUR remains lower with eyes on 1.2993 level. Below here will open the door for a run at the 1.2879 level, its Jan 23’2011 low. On the other hand, the pair will have to break and hold above the 1.3387 level to set the stage for further correction. This will leave the pair targeting the 1.3484 level with a cut through here pushing the pair further higher towards its Dec 02’2011 high at 1.3547. Further out, price extension if seen will aim at its weekly 200 ema at 1.3642. All in all, EUR remains biased to the downside though attempting a recovery.