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Monday, March 19, 2012

In Sit-Down Restaurants, an Economic Indicator

HAVE you been eating more at restaurants with waiters rather than fast-food joints?

If so, you are not alone, and that in fact is an indication that the American economy is improving.

Over the 12 months through January, sales at what the government calls full-service restaurants were 8.7 percent higher than in the previous 12 months. That was the fastest pace of growth since the late 1990s, when the economy was booming. Moreover, as is seen in the accompanying charts, that rate was much greater than the rate of growth in sales at limited-service restaurants.

Since those numbers became available 20 years ago, that difference has been a reliable indicator of how the economy is going. When times get tough, people may still eat out, but they cut back.

Full-service restaurants may or may not be expensive. Le Bernardin in Manhattan qualifies, but so does Red Lobster. The range at limited service places is not nearly as wide. Read more.......

It means that Americans are once again burying themselves in credit card debt because the industry is throwing credit to everyone including subprime. People never stop wanting to borrow. It's always the lenders that cut them off, as happened the last several years. The problem with this is that consumers really never delevered to any real degree and there is zero pricing power for wages in this environment. U6 is still at 15+%, and consumer borrowing is up because of student debt which stands at the doorstep of $1 Trillion!