#vawx A sneaky February setup

The setup for Sunday Feb 21st has potential to be sneaky. I hadn’t paid any attention until this evening and promptly found this 4 km NAM radar depiction for 1 pm:

A cold front with a developing surface low will be scooting across Virginia tomorrow afternoon and the resulting dynamics look interesting. A check of the forecast sounding at this time shows a few hundred j/kg CAPE and almost 40 kts of 0-6 km shear for the Roanoke valley and vicinity. The calculated supercell composite value is 1.5, pretty substantial for this time of year in the Old Dominion. (A quick check of the RAP output shows a bit less optimism but even it shows potential.)

I won’t be chasing tomorrow but my personal storm antenna will be in twitch mode. If there is something worth looking at perhaps I can find a local vantage point from which to observe.