Why the great She-Moose is great for Barack Obama

We carried a graphic in today's Telegraph that showed how different presidents scored in the polls at the time of the mid-terms in their first term. The good news for Barack Obama seems to be that however bad things look for him, they were a lot worse for Ronald Reagan in '82 and Bill Clinton in '94, yet both went on to cruise to a second term. If the Republican/Tea Party combine does as well as expected tomorrow, and if Sarah Palin presses home her advantage to take the Republican nomination for president, then think Goldwater and put your money on Mr Obama in 2012. That must be why the Republican leadership has declared open season on the great She-Moose.

First shot came via my colleague Alex Spillius' interview with Karl Rove last week that took America by storm (and the Ethiopian Review apparently). George W Bush's political brain concluded: “There are high standards that the American people have for it [the presidency] and they require a certain level of gravitas, and they want to look at the candidate and say 'that candidate is doing things that gives me confidence that they are up to the most demanding job in the world’.” And that ain't the S-M. Second salvo comes today in a fascinating piece by the indefatigable Mike Allen of Politico. Under the headline 'Next stop for GOP leaders: Stopping Palin'. Here's the gist:

"Interviews with advisers to the main presidential contenders and with other veteran Republican operatives make clear they see themselves on a common, if uncoordinated, mission of halting the momentum and credibility Palin gained with conservative activists by plunging so aggressively into this year’s midterm campaigns.

"There is rising expectation among GOP elites that Palin will probably run for president in 2012 and could win the Republican nomination, a prospect many of them regard as a disaster in waiting.

"Many of these establishment figures argue in not-for-attribution comments that Palin’s nomination would ensure President Barack Obama’s reelection, as the deficiencies that marked her 2008 debut as a vice presidential nominee — an intensely polarizing political style and often halting and superficial answers when pressed on policy — have shown little sign of abating in the past two years."