State of the Left: Sweden shows northern Europe’s political volatility

12 December 2014

Next year voters in Britain, Denmark, Canada, Sweden, Finland
and – depending on the outcome of a parliamentary vote on 29 December – Greece
will go to the polls.

In none of these countries is a victory for the centre-left a certainty; a
reflection less of the strength of traditional centre-right opponents, but more
of the shifting electoral landscapes – apparent in the rise of populist parties
and the decline of traditional attachments – in each of them and, indeed, many
other democracies. And, as the reports in this month’s State of the Left
demonstrate, while the likes of Podemos and Syriza attract considerable media
attention, political volatility is not simply the preserve of southern Europe.

That was most dramatically shown earlier this month in Sweden. From there, Katrine Marçal details
the collapse after only two months in office of its Social Democratic
government, the result, in part, of the substantial gains made by the
xenophobic Sweden Democrats in September’s general election. A defeat over his
budget found the normally patient and cautious Stefan Löfven calling a snap
election for March following political chaos the likes of which has not been
seen in the country since 1958.

As John McTernan suggests, Britain’s general
election in May resembles “a game of four-dimensional chess” as populist
parties of the right and left – the UK Independence party, Greens and Scottish
National party – threaten to deny either Labour or the Conservatives, both
stuck way below 40 per cent in the opinion polls, a parliamentary majority.
That those chess pieces are in constant motion is evident in Italy where, as Mattia Guidi argues,
the principal challenge to the still-popular Matteo Renzi comes not from the
previously headline-grabbing Five Star Movement of Beppe Grillo, but the new
Northern League leader, Matteo Salvini, who was the star guest at the recent
French National Front conference.

Both of Finland’s governing
parties – the Social Democrats and the centre-right National Coalition party –
have experienced “internal turmoil and soul-searching”, reports Mikko Majander. But it
is not the populist True Finns – whose strong third-place finish in 2011 forced
the two parties into an uneasy coalition government – who have been the
beneficiary, but the centrist Agrarian party. This somewhat unusual development
stands in stark contrast to Greece, where, finds Yannis Palaiologos, the
prospects of a general election in late January or early February producing a
government led by the left-populist Syriza party remain strong.

There is better news from Denmark where, after
three years languishing in the polls, Denmark’s Social Democrats at last have
something to cheer, says Kristian Weise: signs of
an economic recovery and a “red budget” which has united the sometimes
fractious centre-left parties which make-up Helle Thorning-Schmidt’s
government.

As we look to the new year, the one certainty is that these elections will
continue to provide plenty of evidence that long-familiar party systems are now
in a deep state of flux – and that Greece will be back with a vengeance.

Progressives face a
tough fight in next year’s Canadian election. Even as their support outstrips
the Conservatives’, the Harper government’s changes to the electoral rules
will likely suppress voter turnout and leave the door open to more electoral
fraud