Talk about being in real trouble, a new DailyKos/Research 2000 poll in Illinois shows Republican Mark Kirk leading Democrat Alexi Giannoulias (D) in the U.S. Senate race, 41% to 38%. In February, Giannoulias has a 7 point lead. This Senate race is for Obama former US Senate seat. What an embarrassing loss this would be election eve.

Not a good couple of months for the Democrats. Giannoulias has clearly taken a hit from the collapse of his family bank. In the previous poll, Independents basically split their vote 36-35, with the slight (statistically insignificant) edge to Giannoulias. This week, Kirk leads 39-31 among indies, though 30 percent remain undecided.

It’s pretty telling when a Democrat is trailing in a liberal leaning poll. So how does the LEFT find a silver lining?

Kos finds a silver lining in this question: “Would you be more likely to vote for a candidate who supports and will work to improve the new health care reform law, or a candidate who will work to repeal it completely?”

Here the answer is support 51%, repeal 35% — suggesting that a Democrat ought to naturally have the upper hand in this race.

Rasmussen has Republican Kirk ahead of Democrat Giannoulias by a 46% to 38% margin in April 2010 polling. Prior to that Kirk has a 41% to 37% lead and in March Giannoulias lead Kirk 44% – 41%. It can obviously be seen which way the trending is headed.

Unlike the Obamacare support of 51% to repeal 35% from the KOS poll, Rasmussen has it much closer, with 50% in favor of Obamacare and 47% in favor of repealing it.

Support for the national health care plan is higher in the president’s home state than it is nationally. Forty-seven percent (47%) of Illinois voters favor repealing the health care bill, including 35% who Strongly Favor repeal. But 50% are opposed to repeal, including 37% who are Strongly Opposed.

Thus, it’s more of a break even which should be troubling for any Democrat candidate in a state where Obama was the former US and state Senator. What will the race ultimately come down to … the independent vote. The problem for Democrats is that across the country, those not affiliated with any major party have been breaking Republican.

If the next Rasmussen poll shows a continued trend for Kirk, Democrats could be in for a long and embarrassing midterm election eve.

Comments

Republican glee about winning Obama’s former Senate seat could be short lived if Mr. Kirk goes to the Senate and votes as he did as a Republican in the House. He’s pretty moderate and actually, Liberal as Republicans go.

If anything, having Mark Kirk in the Senate will probably aid the President in forging some sort of bi-partisan consensus on a number of issues. He’s very likely to cross over on a number of things.

Which is why this John Chaffee/John Heinz Republican will be voting for Mr. Kirk in the general. It will perhap be the beginning of the removal of the stink of the doctrinaire righties from the party of Lincoln and TR..