By Dingli Shen

North Korea’s Nuclear Calculus

North Korea has
much hastened its nuclear and missile development this year. It conducted its
5th nuclear weapons test on September 9, after its 4th nuclear test on January
6 this year.

As expected, the
following cycle is being put in motion now. First, the UN Security Council (UNSC)
will have its closed door consultation to engineer a new punitive resolution. The
US and China will likely fight on what to, or not to, include in the new sanctions
list. After the sanctions are approved for a while, probably just for few months,
North Korea will set up another nuclear or missile test. Then China and the US
will accuse each other again, with China saying that it is US hostility that
has led to North Korea’s latest test, and the US charging China for not fully
honoring previous UNSC resolutions.

North Korea knows
that the world is unfair, as all the five permanent (P5) members on the UNSC have
nuclear weapons, while the rest of the world cannot. Or wait a minute, a few
others can also have. See, the US has accepted Israel to have nuclear weapons. America
has also allowed India to have nuclear weapons. And China may have tolerated
Pakistan for having nuclear weapons. Given these, why can’t North Korea also
have nukes?

North Korea is properly
informed of the fact that China and the US don’t get along well, so there is
room for it to tap into. Look, the US knew that India would not bend on
unilateral nuclear sanctions, as pushing too much pressure on India would only
benefit China. Then the US waived India from being sanctioned by the Nuclear
Suppliers Group (NSG), a US-led nuclear technology cartel, for cooperation on
civilian nuclear power. Lately the US has even supported India to join the NSG
as a full member. By partnering a non-NPT (Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of
Nuclear Weapons) country that has acquired nuclear weapons, the US supports India
to boost its international standing, which is helpful for India in its power juggling
with Beijing.

Therefore, there
is no such thing that one cannot develop nuclear weapons. What matters is that if
one has a value in power politics, things could be different. North Korea
believes that it has such a value.

Pyongyang believes that
American realism will eventually accommodate a nuclear North Korea.

Because North
Korea has been armed with nuclear weapons, it will be more or less free from military
threats. It has acquired its own nuclear deterrent. Pyongyang believes that
American realism will eventually accommodate a nuclear North Korea. President Barack
Obama has compromised with Cuba after the US placed sanctions on Havana for
half a century. In terms of nuclear development, the US has also compromised
with India, Pakistan, and recently Iran. It is very unlikely that the US would
never accept the reality of a nuclear North Korea. The question is when such a
change of US policy will happen. A probable bet is after President Trump is sworn
into the White House.

North Korea
understands that as long as the US adjusts its position, China will quickly
follow suit, as it did vis-à-vis India. China used to join the US and other P5
members in denouncing India for its nuclear weapons tests in 1998. However,
after the 9/11 attack, the US lifted its sanctions on India and Pakistan over
their nuclear testing, without consulting with China. The US needs both New
Delhi and Islamabad to shape its global anti-terror coalition. Given the US
change, China has no other choice but to downplay the nuclear issue for its relations
with India. It is likely that China will not push North Korea towards the US if
the latter moderates its relations with Pyongyang.

At this stage, it
is already too late to reverse North Korea’s nuclear trajectory, even if China
and the US would best cooperate to stop Pyongyang’s will. Nevertheless, the
rift between Beijing and Washington is increasing, given the US’ Asia Pacific rebalancing
in general, and the deployment of THAAD in South Korea in particular. Seeing
that the UNSC took two months to make Resolution 2270, the leadership in North
Korea must conclude that this is the perfect time to conduct more tests.