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The Return of the Balkan Question

The recent violence in Macedonia is a reminder that the Balkans region remains a volatile mix of nationalism and economic frustration, underpinned by disillusionment about progress toward membership in the EU. But the EU continues to be the only alternative to a future as bad as the worst of the past.

PARIS – “One must Europeanize the Balkans, in order to avoid the Balkanization of Europe.” I wrote those words with the French political scientist Jacques Rupnik in 1991, just as war was breaking out among Yugoslavia’s successor states. The fighting would last until the end of the decade, claim thousands of lives, and twice require the intervention of NATO (in Bosnia in 1995 and Serbia in 1999).

Nearly a quarter-century later, the Balkans continue to constitute a threat to European peace, just as they did on the eve of World War I and at the end of the Cold War, when Yugoslavia’s implosion led not only to Europe’s first war since 1945, but also to the return of genocidal murder. The recent fighting in Macedonia, which left eight police officers and 14 Albanian militants dead, raises the specter of renewed violence. It is difficult to know whether the bloodshed represents the festering of an old, unhealed wound or something new, a backlash against a majority-Slav government that seems bent on embracing ethnic chauvinism.

What is clear is that the region remains an explosive and confused reality, one capable of threatening Europe’s stability, already on a knife’s edge following Russia’s adventurism in Ukraine. The region is a volatile mix of rising nationalism, deep economic frustration, and disillusionment about progress toward membership in the European Union. The potential for a plunge into chaos obliges us to consider once again how best to handle the Balkan tinderbox.

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Serbia's parliament is unanimously pro EU after the last election. That is not an exageration. Serbia went to the polls and afterwards not one anti EU party got any seats. Talking about nationalists in Serbia like they have any power is ridiculous. Then during Putin's visit to Serbia Vucic said having Russia as an investor was great but top priority is EU. Serbia being desperately poor and impoverished it needs Russia's money. Until EU makes promises to replace all of Moscow's money if Serbia put sanctions on Russia of course it will not.

This article illustrates perfectly the very attitude which prevent many Europeans from understanding and dealing appropriately with problems in the Balkans. Refering to the recent clashes at Koumanovo, the author states: "It is difficult to know whether the bloodshed represents the festering of an old, unhealed wound or something new, a backlash against a majority-Slav government that seems bent on embracing ethnic chauvinism." He makes no attempt to understand this problem, which he implies is like other Balkan problems, he does not even explain which he considers it so difficult to do so, bemoans the difficulty and implies thus that perhaps it is not possible to do so. Why is it any more difficult to understand a nationalist conflict in the FYROM than in one Belgium, let us say, or in northern Spain? Each is different of course, and none can be understood without understanding the history that preceded it. If you really wanted to understand any conflict, whether in the Balkans or elsewhere, and come to grips with it, you have to be aware of the historical developments that gave rise to it, and you have to understand how the people involved see themselves and what motivates them.

If you stay on the surface, (the events of yesterday) and bemoan the fact that the people of the Balkans seem to be so different and their problems so incomprehensible, you are not really seeing understanding. You are fostering an attitude of willful ignorance and arrogant superiority, that implicitly supports the neo-colonialist program announced by M. Moisi's earlier article: "One must Europeanize the Balkans..." , and its outrageous fear mongering "or they will Balkanize us" . With such attitude expressed in our newspapers and learned journals, it is no wonder so many in the Balkans are looking to Russia for support against the neo-colonialist threat that they imply. At least, Russian brute force does not seem to be turned against the people of the Balkans but against those who bombed Belgrade, and their allies, those whose willful ignorance and arrogant assumption of superiority could very well give lead to new bombing runs: If one accepts M. Moisi's approach to the Balkans, if one accepts that Europeanizing them seems so infuriatingly unachievable (when one cannot even understand what is going on there), but if we cannot, then they will Balkanize us, is to so far from there to go to the conclusion, at the next crisis, that perhaps we had better bomb them again to stave off that threat?

"Black Lamb and Grey Falcon" Rebecca West :
Violence was indeed all I knew of the Balkans,' writes Rebecca West, 'all I knew of the South Slavs. And since there proceeds steadily from the southeastern corner of Europe a stream of events which are a danger to me, which indeed for years threatened my safety and deprived me forever of many benefits, that is to say I know nothing of my own destiny. The Balkan Peninsula was only two or three days distant, yet I had never troubled to go that short journey, which might explain to me how I shall die, and why.' So it was that in 1937 Rebecca West, with her husband, set out to explore the Balkans, and particularly Yugoslavia, to see for herself why the fate of the Continent and of England has so often been threatened by the Powderkeg of Europe. The story she brought back with her annihilates distance, and touches every thoughtful reader.
from: https://www.theatlantic.com/past/docs/unbound/flashbks/west/west1.htm and http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/1941/02/black-lamb-and-grey-falcon-part-ii/306554/
-also http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_Lamb_and_Grey_Falcon
Every time I attempt the read, I feel superficial: 'can't touch that!'

This good analysis lacks a very important segment: US influence on tremendously poor political leadership, which is additionally fully defended by EC too, and it is completely out of what is going on in economy (Macedonia, Montenegro, Serbia, and unfortunate BiH), while strengthening all kinds of corruption and cronyism.
So, as at the beginning and mid of 90-s even now the scenario is almost palpable: be tourist on Balkans although tax payers of US and EU paid you to be responsible administrative example for transferring good know how policies, who would also find courage to not support local politicians as that is the solution which is supported by narrow interests of myopic political objectives.

All roads lead to Rome - is suggested as the remedy century after century.
Despite the evidence to the contrary for 415 years.
That the cancer that has caused meltdowns repeatedly is recommended as the remedy.
Suggests nothing has changed.
Despite the emergence of The Anglosphere.
Since 1600, all roads have led to London and its New Englands.
Yet the remedy never changes - all roads lead to Rome.
For Poland, Rome is right.
For Greece, Russia is right.
But for Europe, strangely the salvation ALWAYS is The Anglosphere.
But even more strangely, the suggested remedy for salvation never changes.
Time to change the way to think, after 415 years.

The problem with 'Win-Lose' geopolitics, is that eventually, the losing side winds up costing more in lives, treasure and grief, than the 'Winning' side ever accumulated.

A perfect example of this occurred in WWI and WWII.

If we look at Germany prior to WWI, it was a thriving and burgeoning nation -- an empire and truly a great power.

The German Empire accumulated more Nobel Prizes in science than Britain, France, Russia, and the United States combined. Germany became a great power, boasting a rapidly growing rail network, the world's strongest army, and a fast-growing industrial base. In less than a decade, its navy went from being a negligible force to one which was second only to the Royal Navy. -- Wikipedia

But due to the decision to employ 'Win-Lose' thinking (the only thinking known early in the 20th century) the German Empire embarked on war to accomplish its goals.

Look how that turned out.

The Treaty of Versailles was supposed to guarantee that Germany never became powerful enough to threaten Europe again.

Yet the treaty was just another example of 'Win-Lose' thinking.

After recovering from WWI, the German public increasingly felt humiliated and angry towards other European powers, due to the punishing conditions imposed by other European powers.

Which set a course of uber-predictable political change in motion, inside the Weimar Republic, culminating in World War II and all of its unprecedented atrocities.

If WWII isn't the best example of 'Win-Lose' thinking in the history of the world, it is only 2nd to WWI.

By using the same thinking to solve our problems as we used to create our problems, more than 250 million people were killed in war, or died from starvation in the 20th century.

'Win-Lose' thinking can't be tossed into the dustbin of history quickly enough.

And yet, it appears to continue to rule the politics of Europe, or at least parts of it. Again, with an uber-predictable outcome.

It is great that the Eurozone has taken such a keen interest in making Greece a success (almost against the will of some Greek citizens, it would seem) and in courting the UK, and in making Poland such a success. Gratifying all.

Even Ukraine is getting attention from the EU (alright, mainly to bash Russian president Vlad Putin, but still) it's attention that the eastern Europeans *aren't* getting.

But history is going to repeat itself in broad terms, if the EU takes for granted that the eastern European nations will not take the same path as the Weimar Republic in 1939/40 due to the fact that many new EU nations are receiving plenty of attention, assistance, and funding -- while the eastern Europeans do not.

'How to set the seeds for conflict 101' -- right there.

Those who don't see it coming, have no business being heads of state, nor being diplomats.

And even more profoundly than the next European war, which after all, will only involve Europeans and not the whole world -- our species must advance at the same rate as our technology, which has so far, not been done -- and invest in research, teaching and learning about how to create 'Win-Win' situations from pending turmoil.

It is heretofore, our weakest suit -- and for our species to survive on this planet and not only survive, but thrive -- 'Win-Win' thinking *must* become our strongest suit.

“One must Europeanize the Balkans, in order to avoid the Balkanization of Europe,” according to Dominique Moisi. The bloody conflict in the 1990s ended with the Balkanisation of Yugoslavia. Since then its "successor states" have been seeking EU-membership. Croatia and Slovenia became members in recent years, while others are grappling with the challenges in a region beset by high unemployment, widespread corruption, weak judiciary etc.
Georgraphically the Balkans are part of Europe and had had a turbulent history. Winston Churchill had once said: "The Balkans produce more history than they can consume."
In the wake of the recent gun-battle in Macedonia, close to the border with Kosovo, in which eight policemen were killed by unidentified gunmen, Moisi raises the question of "how best to handle the Balkan tinderbox." Will the power struggle in Macedonia between its prime minister and the opposition leader escalate into a war? The government has been accused of intolerance towards dissent, vote-rigging, bribery and wiretaping.
No doubt this incident is carefully watched in the region and the Serbs don't hesitate to put the blame on "Albanian nationalists," who dream of a "Greater Albania," that would include Albania, Kosovo and the Republic of Macedonia. Kosovo broke away from the Serbs in 2008 and declared its independence.
Although Serbia under the current government is pro-Western and had begun accession talks with the EU in 2014, it looks traditionally to Russia, which - under the aegis of Pan-Slavism - had helped Serbia regain independence from the Ottoman Empire in the 19th century.
There are still a small number of Serbs, like the diplomat Moisi spoke to, who dwell on the Yugoslav era, in which they "were respected." Since Serbia has long been mired in a deep economic crisis, and faces further painful reforms as a condition of EU membership, some Serbs have become anti-Western, chauvinist, homophobic and violent.
Instead of an Europeanisation of the Balkans, there is fear of a "Putinisation" on the rise in the former republics of the Soviet Union, following claims of government authoritarianism, manipulation of independent institutions etc. Even EU members like Hungary, Romania and Bulgaria have dismissed the principles of rule of law and curbed the freedoms of press and speech. Yet, despite all woes, there are many, who still try to reach the "European ideals."

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