The category has its established set of nominees. The Tree of Life, Hugo, and War Horse all seem like sure things. The Artist will undoubtedly ride a wave of critical support to get noticed here as well. So that leaves the final spot, which could very well go to anyone. I’m thinking Midnight in Paris takes it, especially since it has surprisingly received a handful of citations.

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Analysis

Updated: December 4, 2011

There are some certainties. The Tree of Life is a certainty. Both Hugo and The Artist seem to have etched a place as well. It becomes problematic from there. War Horse has had some divisive responses to Kaminski’s approach, though it’s very much still in the fray. Similarly, Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close and The Girl With The Dragon Tattoo obviously have the cinematographers to push them into the five. The final two spots are incredibly difficult to assess at this point. Midnight in Paris has received its fair share of early citations, and well, I can’t help but be impressed by Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy’s cold visuals. Melancholia is definitely in the thick of it though, and could be one of those surprise nomination in the same vein as The White Ribbon a few years back.

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Analysis

Updated: October 15, 2011

Definitely one of the toughest categories to predict; outside of number one of course. The Tree of Life has the nomination and at this point, win in place. What I’m most curious about is if last year’s winner, Wally Pfister could come into play; Moneyball is impressive visually, but it might be too contained and subtle to really be considered striking.