WASHINGTON
- The pessimistic scenario: It is 2025 and the Jewish people's very
existence is threatened - the number of Jews worldwide has dropped to
10 million, 6 million of which live in Israel; the intermarriage rate
is climbing and most children of mixed marriages have no links to
Judaism. In Israel, society is choosing "normalcy" over Jewish
existence, the security situation is deteriorating and social unity is
disintegrating; in the Diaspora, the strength of Jewish communities and
of Jewish education is ebbing, the bonds between the Diaspora and
Israel are particularly weak and Jewish financial fortunes are in
decline; anti-Semitism is rising, as is the Muslim world's hostility
toward the Jews. This is the pessimistic scenario, which is described
as a "realistic nightmare."

There is also a reverse scenario for
2025, one described as the "realistic vision," in which the Jewish
people is flourishing with about 18 million Jews, two-thirds of whom
live in Israel; Jewish identity in Israel is gaining strength, along
with the securing of regional stability and economic growth; in the
Diaspora, most Jewish children are enrolled in Jewish educational
institutions, the connection with Israel is getting stronger and
economic and political might of the Jews is on the upswing; the Jewish
nation is leading the way in "tikkun olam" (repairing the world) and is
enjoying a period of prosperity in its relations with Christians and
Muslims.

Both of these extreme scenarios, practically polar
opposites of one another, were presented two weeks ago to a group of
about 20 contemporary Jewish social leaders in an attempt to formulate
a plan to navigate the way of the Jewish people through the decades to
come, to realize the optimistic vision and avoid the nightmare
scenario. The group convened far from the media spotlight and almost in
secret, at the Wye Plantation, near Washington, D.C. Wye is familiar to
Israeli history buffs as the place where Israelis and Palestinians
secluded themselves and worked out the famous "Wye Agreement."

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However,
this time it was not statesmen and politicians around the table, but
rather an assortment of the most prominent names in the contemporary
Jewish gallery, including attorney Alan Dershowitz, former deputy
treasury secretary Stuart Eizenstat, Natan Sharansky, Rabbi Samuel
Sirat, the former chief rabbi of France, Michael Steinhardt, one of the
leading Jewish philanthropists in the U.S., Dennis Ross, Prof. Yehezkel
Dror, Jacques Attali, Rabbi Yuval Cherlow and others. Incidentally,
some participants asked to keep their attendance a secret. Steven
Spielberg was compelled to cancel at the last minute, but promised to
come to the next event.

Members of the group spent 24 hours
together at the site, which is relatively isolated and distant from the
hustle bustle of Washington, in an attempt to consider what needs to be
done to ensure a better future for the Jewish people. "Our object is to
understand what should be done now to make the future of the Jewish
people better," says Avi Gil, the former Foreign Ministry director
general who chaired the project. It was organized by the Jewish People
Policy Planning Institute (JPPPI), an independent think tank set up by
the Jewish Agency that studies issues related to the Jewish people.

The biggest threat

The Wye Plantation gathering, described as a brainstorming session, is
the end-stage of a project entitled "Alternate Futures for the Jewish
People." Over the past few months, various experts drafted papers that
plumbed the options available to Israeli and world Jewry in spheres
such as demography, geopolitics, Jewish identity, economy, technology
and Israel-Diaspora relations. Each sub-section attempted to gauge
current trends and determine where they might lead two decades from
now. The experts tried to identify the points of possible intervention,
in order to divert these trends toward a positive direction.

"This
group is the Jules Verne of the Jewish world," says Avinoam Bar-Yosef,
who heads the Jewish People Policy Planning Institute, referring to the
group that gathered at Wye to discuss scenarios. But unlike Jules
Verne, they made no attempt to predict the future, only to influence it.

"When
I left I was definitely worried, but also a bit optimistic," says Prof.
Jehuda Reinharz, president of Brandeis University, a participant in the
group. Like most of the others, Reinharz believes there are genuine
concerns about the loss of Jewish identity and decline in the size of
the Jewish people, so much so that it would make it hard for Judaism to
continue functioning. The only reason he finds for optimism is that 20
very busy Jews took the time to consider how it can save the Jewish
people, and tried to devise solutions to the situation. It may be the
indication of a positive shift in the approach to dealing with the
problems of the Jewish people.

Most participants agreed that the
biggest threat to the Jewish people in the next few decades is
weakening Jewish identity. In the modern world, Jewish identity
competes in a big market of ideas and ideologies that are open to every
individual. The difficulty of linking Jews, primarily younger Jews, to
their Jewish identity eventually leads to estrangement from Jewish
communal life, distancing from the State of Israel, and rise in
intermarriage, which in the second generation causes a quantitative
loss of Jews.

The American Jewish community lost between 300,000
and 500,000 members in the past decade, a number that concerns anyone
engaged in the subject. "In the past few years, colossal efforts have
been made to maintain Jewish identity, to find Jews and see to it that
they remain in the community, but these efforts have been only
partially successful," says Reinharz.

Incidentally, the Jewish
identity crisis does not only exist among Diaspora Jews. A document
prepared by the JPPPI reveals the concerns about a major weakening of
Jewish identity in Israel, particularly in light of calls for turning
Israel into a "normal" country in which the Jewish identity component
would be downplayed in favor of an Israeli identity.

Not all
participants in the gathering agreed that the greatest danger facing
the Jewish people is internal. Prof. Alan Dershowitz held the minority
opinion. He considers the external threat to be the most significant.
He feels that anti-Semitism is mounting, and that attempts to
delegitimize Israel and the possibility of Iranian nuclear arms are
what truly endanger the future of the Jewish people. "As long as Jews
are free to choose their identity, I am confident the Jewish people
will continue to flourish, despite the decline in numbers," Dershowitz
said.

Stuart Eizenstat, who aside from his position in the
American administration also coordinated the issue of Jewish property
claims from the Holocaust era, refers to the demographic crisis
threatening the Jewish people. In the Diaspora, it is an absolute
demographic crisis stemming from intermarriage, low birth rates and
aging of the community, whereas in Israel the crisis is relative - in
comparison to the Palestinian population. Participants in the gathering
concurred that the cliche about quality and quantity is no longer
relevant to the Jewish people, and that if there is significant
quantitative loss, any possible quality that the community might
germinate would still fail to maintain true Jewish life, especially in
the Diaspora.

A visit to Israel helps

How do you
contend with the loss of identity and thinning out of the Jewish
people? Most participants in the brainstorming session agreed that the
key lies in opening up the gates of the Jewish people and extending a
hand to those now on the margins. "We need to lower the entry level of
participation in Jewish organizational and religious life," says
Eizenstat. "We need to work with those who are less connected to the
community, those who traditionally were not part of the community."
These "marginal Jews" include non-Jewish spouses in mixed marriages,
children of mixed marriages who were not raised in a Jewish home,
immigrants from the former Soviet Union who never received Jewish
education or whose Jewish lineage is in doubt.

Until now, the
Jewish community has pushed away such groups, and imposed demands on
those wishing to join in Jewish life. As a result, these "marginal
Jews" distanced themselves from Jewish life, and their children grew up
without one iota of Jewish identity. "It isn't a matter of conscious
desire to leave the Jewish community; it just happens at the everyday
level, drop by drop," adds Reinharz.

Even the brainstorming at
the Wye Plantation could not find a magic elixir for bringing back into
the fold those Jews who have slipped away from the community. But it is
clear where these solutions may be found. One, in the realm of Jewish
leadership. "The Jewish people lacks spiritual leadership capable of
formulating new inspirational content for Jewish identity that will
inspire, provide meaning and gain relevance," stated the press release
issued after the gathering. Another solution lies in hands-on contact
with Israel. To date, the only solution that has proved itself in
reinforcing Jewish identity among Diaspora Jews (primarily from North
America) is spending time in Israel. Even short visits like the 10-day
birthright israel experience have shown that they can bring
participants much closer to their Jewish identity.

Does this
mean that a young person taking part in the program will not marry the
non-Jewish love of his or her life because of a newly discovered Jewish
identity? The answer is no, but the chances are definitely greater that
after intermarriage this young person will aspire to have a Jewish home
and raise the children as Jews.

Participants in the gathering
noted, as a special mention of sorts, the Orthodox community, which
maintains full Jewish identity - 100 percent Jewish education, 0
percent intermarriage, and high birthrates. But in the same breath they
explained that because it is a closed society, it cannot serve as a
model for Jewish life in the current era.

The buzzword at the
gathering was "aggressiveness" - the need to act immediately and
resolutely, enlisting all available forces to halt the skid of the
Jewish people. At present, Jewish activity is not characterized by any
sense of panic or urgency. Birthright, for example, which earns
approbations from all quarters, suffers from budgetary constraints that
prevent all of the young Jews wanting to visit Israel from being able
to do so. Meanwhile, 80 percent of funds contributed by American Jews
are directed to non-Jewish objectives.

It is clear that if the
Jewish community believed it faced an emergency, much could be changed;
both in areas requiring significant monetary input and areas requiring
a firm stand against the organizational and religious establishment, in
a demand to open the gates of Judaism to assimilated and
disenfranchised Jews.

"There is a lot of Jewish energy and
thinking in the world that is not being exploited for the benefit of
the Jewish people," says Avinoam Bar-Yosef, who hopes the institute he
heads will succeed in enlisting these Jewish energies. But Jehuda
Reinharz feels the community is complacent. "American Jews are so
pleased with themselves, due to the illusion that they have a lot of
political and economic power here," says Reinharz, who warns that the
community has only a "window of another few years" before the American
political reality shifts and the political power of the Jewish
community is lost, in favor of the large Hispanic minority and the
American Muslim community.

Is anyone listening to these warning
shots? Avi Gil, the head of the project, feels there is greater
willingness now to hear ideas from the outside, and is therefore acting
to present practical recommendations for the future. The conclusions of
the team of experts that gathered at the Wye Plantation were presented
last week to the Conference of Presidents of Major American Jewish
Organizations, and a special Knesset session will be devoted to them in
the near future.