The Chargers have tied a franchise tag to receiver Vincent Jackson’s toe, so it’s settled, right here in February. They are going to the Super Bowl — if the NFL’s labor dust pile is swept somewhere but under the rug and there is a Super Bowl.

Of course there’s a manure-load of presumption there, and this is how many of us feel — not just here, but nationally — every year around this time, only to have the Chargers flatten like a bad souffle.

And we also are presuming there will be a season, with the collective bargaining agreement between owners and players set to expire March 3. I believe there will be a season, but I don’t know if there will be much of a preseason and there’s no denying experienced teams with exceptional quarterbacks are going to have an advantage. The Chargers have both.

Teams with new coaches implementing new systems could be mired in gobs of trouble if players aren’t around for months (entirely possible; probably probable). And players — including those drafted in April — will be totally shut down in case of a lockout, with no access to anything, including doctors, trainers and weight rooms.

So let’s look at it a couple of ways.

The Chargers certainly are talented enough in a league with no great teams. Good, but not great. Green Bay? Good. Pittsburgh? Good. Both probably will be good again. I expect neither to return to the Super Bowl — if there is one.

They have a much better chance of winning the AFC West and advancing to the playoffs with Jackson than without him. He’s one of football’s best receivers, and his presence can do nothing but help tight end Antonio Gates, the most exceptional player in the game. With everything on the shelf, this will be the best offense in the sport.

And we’ve got to at least be a bit realistic. The chances of the Chargers running through the gauntlet of injuries that hit them in 2010 can’t be good. And it’s almost impossible to believe a repeat of the worst special teams play in the history of football can occur — even if they try.

If General Manager A.J. Smith can retain the important unrestricted and restricted free agents — and we probably won’t know much about that until a new CBA is written — and keep most of his players healthy, this will be among the very best teams in football.

Even the Las Vegas oddsboys, true geniuses that they are, continue to be big Chargers fans. The number on San Diego winning the next Super Bowl has opened at 12-1, behind Green Bay (7-1), New England (7-1) and Pittsburgh (11-1). I’m nowhere near as smart as those guys, but they usually know something most of us do not.

“I don’t pay much attention to that stuff, but it tells you some people think we’re going to bounce back fast,” Smith says. “It says if we don’t get hurt and have gaffes on special teams, we’ll be improved. They have to think special teams can’t be that bad — at least a rational guy has to look at it that way. And then you throw (quarterback) Philip Rivers into the equation.

“There are some disappointed people out there, and I’m one of them. We’re not an elite team; we’ve lost that. We were second in our division last year and out of it. We have to earn back that status we had. Because it’s gone; it really is. I deal in facts, man.”

One fact is that Jackson has been tagged. There are no guarantees franchise tags are going to stick to the new CBA’s wall, but chances are they will. If Jackson signs the tender, he’ll make $10 million or so this year, which is about a $10 million raise.

As for a long-term deal, Smith prefers to wait and see how Jackson, who can’t afford another slip after getting hit with two DUIs, performs on and off the lawn.

“Vincent’s a good player and he’s always been a good player, which I’ve said repeatedly,” Smith says. “I’m comfortable with not giving him a long-term deal right now and we are not negotiating a long-term deal. We’ll see how the year goes, but not at the present time.”

Would the Chargers have made the playoffs with Jackson playing most of last year? Due to his holdout and eventual suspension for that second DUI, he didn’t catch a pass until Week 14, so it’s impossible to say. He doesn’t play special teams.

But when you lose a Pro Bowl player, it’s significant. Put the blame on both sides for last year’s mess, but Jackson’s turning down a $2.5 million raise sure didn’t make any sense then and it makes even less sense now. He still has to sign a tender. If he doesn’t, there are some screws loose.

“I like our team,” Smith says. “Absolutely, I think we’ll be better. If you don’t like your football team, something terrible has happened; the bottom has fallen out. It hasn’t here. I want us to rebound.

“I do love the chase. But we’ve won our division five times in the last (seven) years and done nothing with it. I want that opportunity again.”