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Tuesday, June 5, 2012

The Continued Cost of Congestion

Eleven months ago I wrote about the cost of congestion.
At the time the annual cost to Toronto of traffic congestion was pegged at
about $6 billion each year. In addition, Toronto’s commute (80 minutes on
average) was the longest in the world.

Metrolinx provides different numbers here, but regardless,
it is the trend line. Metrolinx reports that the cost of Toronto’s congestion
in 2006 was $2.7 billion, and estimates it would inflate to $7.8 billion by2031.
The study likely takes into account planned transit projects. I am not entirely
sure it should.

The relatively simply light rail projects in Toronto (St.
Clair and Eglinton lines) are not expected to be complete until 2020. That’s a
long time. Toronto’s transit programmes are also delayed periodically by changes
in regime. The 1995 and 2010 elections killed established transit plans. It’s
almost as though the TTC cannot get any headway before the mood of city hall
shifts and causes a problem.

Coming out of Brampton I have seen some of the benefits
of long-term stable planning. Mayor Susan Fennell has been in office for a
number of terms and was elected first in 2000. The city’s Züm
strategy and Brampton Transit reforms were able to get going because the
leadership backed them. Admittedly it is easier to introduce bus systems than
light rail or subways. The investment in infrastructure is far less, as is the wrangling
of political support.

Toronto seems to have quite a partisan attitude to public
transit. The left and right battle over the existence of transit, much like
American politicians do for transit. It is a destructive debate that is not
common (or so I imagine) in other major cities. I sincerely doubt right-wing politicians
in Paris, London or New York see a limited role for transit. Good transit is
good for business, again, see the cost of congestion. Without eliminating cars
from the road through draconian methods the only other solution is to move
people onto trains, buses and streetcars.

Ironically, in this Toronto Star article the author warns
that Metrolinx, a provincial organization designed to aid public transit, may
be unduly interfering with Toronto’s initiatives.
The last thing Toronto’s transit network
needs it more interference. I agree with the suggestion that Metrolinx should
focus more on regional connections.

I also wonder if the provincial capital should be
experimenting more with bus rapid transit programmes. As this 2011 article lays
out it can be much more cost efficient.
BRT is also less disruptive. Though Mayor Ford is pro-car in the so-called War
Against Cars, buses may be viewed as more palatable. Regardless, the band-aid
and weak solutions will continue to hurt Toronto and the Greater Toronto Area
in the decades to come. As I’ve said before it behooves municipalities and the
citizens who live in the Golden Horseshoe to view this as a common problem.
What’s good for Toronto and other parts of the region strengthen us all. Something
must improve by 2031.