There’s no secret that the strength of the Edmonton Oilers prospect group can be found on the blue line. That’s good on the one hand because it’s the area where the team needs high-end help. On the other hand, an NHL team can only break in so many rookies at one position at a time, so it’s worth asking when these players will be NHL ready and in what order.

When?

The chart above shows the season I expect a player to be in a position to play 25+ games in the NHL (assuming, of course, that they make it at all). It’s based on recent Oilers’ history, which has mostly seen defencemen graduate in the 20-24 age range, with the average around age 22.

Oscar Klefbom is the prime candidate for time this year; the organization has been extremely upbeat about his progress, he has draft pedigree, and it would be unsurprising in the least if he were to graduate to Edmonton after half a season or so in the AHL. Taylor Fedun goes here, too, because he’s last year’s top right-side AHL’er and at the age of 25 he’s at the point where most players either make the jump or start looking for a second opinion.

After a strong first AHL campaign, Martin Marincin would be in the mix too except that the Oilers are loaded on defence and Klefbom is in front of him. Another year in the AHL won’t hurt and he’s likely to make the jump next year. Brandon Davidson also lands here, after two and a half AHL seasons and at the age of 23; he established himself as an AHL’er last year and this gives him a full season to push up the depth chart and then most of another to wait for an opportunity. Brad Hunt, meanwhile, is in a similar position to Fedun.

I have assumed that Darnell Nurse will be returned to junior twice to mature physically before cracking the Oilers’ roster. This timetable has him making the team at age 20 – early, yes, but given his draft position expected. Martin Gernat and David Musil are both essentially on the Marincin track here, with two seasons of AHL play before competing for NHL time at the end of their entry-level deals; a slow pro debut could push this back a year but either could start strong and challenge a year earlier, too. Dillon Simpson finishes his college career and gets a full year in the AHL before pushing for playing time at age 22. Erik Gustafsson gets one more season in Europe, one season in North America to establish himself, and is then pushing for NHL time.

Finally, Ben Betker gets penciled in at age 23; that’s at the long end for an Oilers’ defence prospect but he was a late pick so it makes sense to give him some time.

Obviously…

Obviously, things won’t work out exactly this way. Some players will be traded, some may not sign (or be signed), and others won’t develop into NHL’ers. There’s no way to know with any certainty who will make it and who won’t. Looking at Lowetide’s top-20 list from five seasons ago is instructive – of a group of four real prospects, Theo Peckham eventually made it in a depth role, Jeff Petry turned out very well, Taylor Chorney got 42 games on a terrible 2009-10 team that look to be the heart of his NHL career, and Cody Wild did nothing. Peckham and Petry and Chorney all got looks at the highest level, though.

Klefbom, Marincin and Nurse look to be the first guys in line for NHL work over the next three years, and the Oilers could conceivably rework their depth chart to include all three at the major-league level (though it’s both a squeeze and that’s an awfully young group). Gernat, Simpson and Musil are the other three guys who look like they have the best case for NHL employment, but the timeline is rough – especially if the Oilers plan to be contending for the Stanley Cup in 2015-16 (which they absolutely should be). I really wonder, just looking at this, if Simpson signs an entry-level with the Oilers.

Outside of Klefbom and Nurse (key guys the team seems to want to build around), a lot of these players look like candidates for the ‘team trades top prospect for immediate help’ kind of move good clubs make at the deadline.

Recently around the Nation Network

Brian Burke is joining the Calgary Flames hockey operations group, and at Flames Nation Book of Loob has already decided what he's looking forward to most:

If this all comes to fruition, my favourite part of his tenure will be whatever synonym for "Aggressive" he uses to coin the direction of the team (Truculent is so played out). My personal favourites are Bellicosity and (my personal favourite) Scurrilous. Damn that sounds hip.

Click the link above to read more or check out some of my recent work:

Jonathan Willis is a freelance writer.
He currently works for Oilers Nation, Sportsnet and Bleacher Report.
He's co-written three books and worked for myriad websites, including the Edmonton Journal, Grantland, ESPN, The Score, and Hockey Prospectus. He was previously the founder and managing editor of Copper & Blue.

Lets not forget either that Ference may be on a downswing by the time Nurse is ready to graduate.

I wouldn't be so sure Ference is the type to let himself go in his mid 30's and fade off into the sunset. He looks to be more like a guy who has the commitment to play into his early 40's. 6 yrs from now.

Ference is here for 4 years, J.Schultz will sign with the Oilers long term after this year (sorry Canuck fans, he's NOT signing there), and it remains to be seen if N. Schultz stays beyond this year, or even part of it. and Smid and Petry aren't a guarantee either, though you can't replace all the vets with kids, so i'd like to see Smid stay. the Oilers will make room for Klefa and Nurse, but eveyone else in the system is likely trade bait, though not all WILL be traded.

i don't know if Fedun, Simpson, Davidson, Gustafsson or Laleggia have futures here or not.

Not sure if Burke has anything the Leafs need. He does have draft picks. Surrendering a 1st and a 3rd rounder may be the bargain Brian can afford. Should be an interesting next month.

Looks like that Flames rebuild plan ended crumpled up in the garbage can. Good on them not forcing the fanbase to endure the ship we've had to go through the last 5 yrs and counting. Dare we say BOOK IT, in regards to the Flames making the post season before our Oilers.

The flames have the cap space to make an offer on kadri, I don't think the leafs have the room to match.... And the oil making the playoffs before Calgary , but could be interesting if they do pickup kadri

JW, how much of a concern is it that ALL the high end D prospects are lefties?

As the speed picks up from junior to minor pro to the NHL - the less time you have to make a subtle body turn to change an angle, or the little less mustard on a backhand pass or time it takes to reposition a puck - can bite you in the a$$.

Am I over-valuing the fact that at the next level we are going to need some "righties". One saving grace is two younger guys, Justin Schultz and Petry are righties and should be around awhile.

That's basically my view - that because Schultz and Petry look like a decent bet for the 1/2 roles on the right, the fact that all the prospect D are lefties is less of a concern.

The flames have the cap space to make an offer on kadri, I don't think the leafs have the room to match.... And the oil making the playoffs before Calgary , but could be interesting if they do pickup kadri

A 6yr 25 million dollar deal would only cost Burke a 1st and a 3rd. Not out of the picture for the Flames first line center.

This does not account for players coming off the books. I.e. Hemsky, N.Schultz etc.

Where is the problem?

Expansion and relocation revenues are not part of HRR and instead go directly into the owners' pockets thus having no impact on the cap.

With the relative drop in the value of the Canadian dollar (currently 95 cents U.S). I doubt you see the cap break $65 million next season.

It will certainly keep rising but not at the rate you're predicting.

James Mirtle of the Globe and Mail has studied the issue and made some educated projections:

2013/14 $64.3M

2014/15 $64.3M

2015/16 $66.1M

2016/17 $69.5M

2017/18 $73.1M

People tend to forget that the cap is based not only on HRR but also the player's share of HRR which has now dropped to 50% from 56%.

This season's cap is artificially higher than it would otherwise be and is only at $64.3M because the union and league negotiated that number to prevent a huge number of players being forced out of the league.

If you recall, the league wanted a cap of $60M which is likely close to what it would have been if not artificially inflated.

As for Defence, I still think it's possible to get a bonafied top flight defender in here over the next few years. A depth chart with Smid, Petry, Schultz, Klefbomb, Nurse, Ferance, and a top 2 guy looks pretty spectacular. Nurse would be pushing in as the number 7 guy in this scenario.

I fully agree about elder Schultz. It would suprise me to see him here after 2014 trade deadline. Thats when they would move Klefbom up to the Oilers. My thoughts though were who gets moved to make room for Marincin and Nurse. In 2015-16 I can fully see Ference getting moved down to third paring. I don't think thats out of line at all.

Not sure if Burke has anything the Leafs need. He does have draft picks. Surrendering a 1st and a 3rd rounder may be the bargain Brian can afford. Should be an interesting next month.

Looks like that Flames rebuild plan ended crumpled up in the garbage can. Good on them not forcing the fanbase to endure the ship we've had to go through the last 5 yrs and counting. Dare we say BOOK IT, in regards to the Flames making the post season before our Oilers.

I doubt the Leafs will move Kadri although stranger things have happened.

The Flames could certainly use Cody Franson, though, and it was Burke who acquired him.

Expansion and relocation revenues are not part of HRR and instead go directly into the owners' pockets thus having no impact on the cap.

With the relative drop in the value of the Canadian dollar (currently 95 cents U.S). I doubt you see the cap break $65 million next season.

It will certainly keep rising but not at the rate you're predicting.

James Mirtle of the Globe and Mail has studied the issue and made some educated projections:

2013/14 $64.3M

2014/15 $64.3M

2015/16 $66.1M

2016/17 $69.5M

2017/18 $73.1M

People tend to forget that the cap is based not only on HRR but also the player's share of HRR which has now dropped to 50% from 56%.

This season's cap is artificially higher than it would otherwise be and is only at $64.3M because the union and league negotiated that number to prevent a huge number of players being forced out of the league.

If you recall, the league wanted a cap of $60M which is likely close to what it would have been if not artificially inflated.

http://tinyurl.com/bc285gt

I have read from another source that even at 50% of HRR, the cap will be around 70M in 14-15 and close to 80M in 16-17. Not as rosy as 2004Z06 believes, but better than James Mirtle of the Globe and Mail.

Not sure if Burke has anything the Leafs need. He does have draft picks. Surrendering a 1st and a 3rd rounder may be the bargain Brian can afford. Should be an interesting next month.

Looks like that Flames rebuild plan ended crumpled up in the garbage can. Good on them not forcing the fanbase to endure the ship we've had to go through the last 5 yrs and counting. Dare we say BOOK IT, in regards to the Flames making the post season before our Oilers.

Off topic of this article but nowhere else to ask the question, and you would probably have the better oppourtunity to voice a suggestion.
With the news of Burke in Cowtown, the battle of Alberta probably just got a little more interesting. How about the two AB teams put some stakes on the season series? Say the team who loses the series the previous year has too fly the winning teams flag at thier HQ on EDM/CGY gamedays. Or something like that. Shame sometimes is a great motivator, good for marketing as well. Who knows?

Maybe now that there's a new chief in Calgary, all Oil/Flames history could be out the window.

Monahan probably won't be making the Flames this season now. What would the Oilers have to give up to get their hands on Monahan afterall.....Gags and N.Schultz, since we're a couple yrs from making the post season anyways.

Burke will be all about making a significant impact his first year in Calgary. He could do something silly.