As for "living through history", sorry steel but that is one of the dumbest things you have said here!

Maybe that's the way he feels. Who are you to say that's a stupid way to feel? Would you say the same about the countless numbers of war correspondents and photographers who have lost their lives over the years?. They thrived on the danger too in the same way and it was their choice to stay.

There have always been four scenarios for major conflict restarting on the peninsula:

1. N Korean leadership thinks it has an advantage and can win.
* almost all discount this as a realistic possibility

2. N Korean leadership thinks its survival is a lost cause.
* China to this point has maintained the status quo

3. Small boarder incident leads to a spiraling escalation.
* CFC policy in the past has prevented this from happening

4. The U.S. decides that it has a tactical necessity to instigate change
* to this point the U.S. like China has chosen the status quo

The 'DMZ War in the late sixties which included the USS Pueblo capture and the shooting down of a U.S. surveillance aircraft in international airspace, the axe murder in '76, and the '94 tensions all ranked higher than the current situation on terms of tension, rhetoric, and posturing. So if all things were equal I'd say 'nothing to worry about.'

What does all this mean? Are we heading toward a conflict? I doubt it. I really do. But there are too many factors in a dynamic situation to laugh off the possibility. I'll continue with my life as normal, but I do have contingency plans, am prepared, and am vigilant.

Final word, those that leave early if there is a conflict are smart, those that leave and there is no conflict are able to return, those that leave late are neither.

Last edited by T-J on Thu Apr 11, 2013 3:28 pm; edited 1 time in total

There really is no reason to stay unless you have immediate family here. A fluent Korean speaker might be able to contribute something, but as a foreigner that can't communicate properly we would be nothing but a burden. I think the majority of locals here would feel much better knowing no one has to check in and make sure we are ok. I know significant others would probably prefer to know that their partner is safe than continuously think about whether or not you are lost or in the wrong place at the wrong time. I honestly wouldn't want to leave, but if the embassy calls for an evacuation I will do what is most convenient for everyone and get out. Be honest with yourselves, we wouldn't have much to offer.

The 'DMZ War in the late sixties which included the USS Pueblo capture and the shooting down of a U.S. surveillance aircraft in international airspace, the axe murder in '76, and the '94 tensions all ranked higher than the current situation on terms of tension, rhetoric, and posturing. So if all things were equal I'd say 'nothing to worry about.'

That's your opinion, man. Here's someone else's:

Quote:

The Commander of U.S. Pacific Command also said that he cannot recollect a more tense time between the U.S., South Korea, and North Korea since the end of the Korean War.

Responding to Sen. John McCain's statement that he doesn't know a time of greater tension in the decades since the war, Admiral Sam Locklear said that "I would agree that in my recollection I don't know a greater time."

^^
You're taking me slightly out of context. My point is that during those periods there were actual shooting incidents and U.S. servicemen were killed and captured. People point to these and say 'nothing happened then so...'

I went on to say that one or more of the underlying reasons for avoiding escalation during those periods has changed so any comparison is apples to oranges.

On the surface the current tensions have not reached the levels of the past, but taking into account the underlying changes, I think dismissing the current situation as 'more of the same' is a mistake.

As for "living through history", sorry steel but that is one of the dumbest things you have said here!

Maybe that's the way he feels. Who are you to say that's a stupid way to feel? Would you say the same about the countless numbers of war correspondents and photographers who have lost their lives over the years?. They thrived on the danger too in the same way and it was their choice to stay.

I have to agree with TJ on this one. Just because the US commander says he can't recall a more tense time than this, doesn't mean there wasn't one (or more).

North Korea actually attacked South Korea not too long ago. I bet the people of Yeongpyeong Island are less tense right now than they were then (that's not to say they are relaxed right now either).

Also, look up Operation Paul Bunyon.

Forces

Operation Paul Bunyan was carried out on August 21 at 7 AM, three days after the [axe murders]. A convoy of 23 American and South Korean vehicles ("Task Force Vierra", named for Lieutenant Colonel Victor S. Vierra, commander of the United States Army Support Group) drove into the JSA without warning to the North Koreans, who had one observation post manned at that hour. In the vehicles were two eight-man teams of military engineers (from the 2nd Engineer Battalion, 2nd Infantry Division) equipped with chain-saws to cut down the tree.

These teams were accompanied by two 30-man security platoons from the Joint Security Force, who were armed with pistols and axe handles. The 2nd Platoon would secure the northern entrance to the JSA via the Bridge of No Return, while the 3rd Platoon would secure the southern edge of the area.

Concurrently, a team from B Company, commanded by Captain Walter Seifried, had activated the detonation systems for the charges on Freedom Bridge and had the 165mm main gun of the M728 Combat Engineer Vehicle aimed mid-span to ensure that the bridge would fall should the order be given for its destruction. Also B Company, supporting E Company (Bridge), were building M4T6 rafts on the Imjin River should the situation require emergency evacuation by that route.

In addition, a 64-man South Korean special forces company accompanied them, armed with clubs and trained in Tae Kwon Do, supposedly without firearms. However, once they parked their trucks near the Bridge of No Return, they started throwing out the sandbags that lined the truck bottoms, and handing out M-16 rifles and M-79 grenade launchers that had been concealed below.[2] Several of the special forces men also had Claymore mines strapped to their chests with the firing mechanism in their hands, and were shouting at the North Koreans to cross the bridge.[14][15]

A U.S. infantry company in 20 utility helicopters and 7 Cobra attack helicopters circled behind them. Behind these helicopters, B-52 Stratofortresses escorted by U.S. F-4 Phantom IIs from Kunsan Air Base and South Korean F-5 Freedom Fighters were visible flying across the sky at high altitude. At Taegu Air Base, F-111 bombers of the 430th Tactical Fighter Squadron out of Mountain Home Air Force Base, were stationed. The aircraft carrier Midway task force had also been moved to a station just offshore.[6]

In addition, near the edges of the DMZ, many more heavily armed U.S. and South Korean infantry, artillery including the Second Battalion, 71st Air Defense Regiment armed with HAWK missiles, and armor were waiting to back up the special operations team. Bases near the DMZ were prepared for demolition in the case of a military response. The defense condition (DEFCON) was elevated on order of Gen. Stillwell, as recounted in Colonel De LaTeur's research paper later. In addition, 12,000 additional troops were ordered to Korea, including 1,800 Marines from Okinawa.[6] During the operation, nuclear-capable strategic bombers circled over the JSA.[16] According to an intelligence analyst monitoring the North Korea tactical radio net, the accumulation of force "blew their... minds".[17]

Altogether, Task Force Vierra consisted of 813 men: almost all of the men of the United States Army Support Group, of which the Joint Security Force was a part; a South Korean reconnaissance company; a South Korean Special Forces company which had infiltrated the river area by the bridge the night before; and members of a reinforced composite rifle company from the 9th Infantry Regiment. In addition to this force, every UNC force in the rest of South Korea was on battle alert.

Back in the 90s we had North Korean commandos running around in South Korea and a few people got killed (police officers, ROK soldiers, and a few civilians).

As for "living through history", sorry steel but that is one of the dumbest things you have said here!

Maybe that's the way he feels. Who are you to say that's a stupid way to feel? Would you say the same about the countless numbers of war correspondents and photographers who have lost their lives over the years?. They thrived on the danger too in the same way and it was their choice to stay.

Thanks for missing the point in your hurry to take a pot shot Ed...habits die hard eh?

I do think someone CAN choose to stay, no worries. I think someone who stays in a war zone in order not to "miss out on history being made" is making an odd choice.

Internal politics in the north are also critically different as before you had a rather stable dictator. Now you have KJU who, according to many experts, is caught in a power struggle with the hawkish older generals and is trying to cement his hold on the the country.

Threat dynamic has changed with the nuke test and with the declared intent to re-start a nuke reactor. The rethoric has also changed somewhat with warnings from NK to various embassies to evacuate after a certain date, the closing of the Kaesong industrial area an so on. The nuclear factor should also not be dismissed as it is (as TJ said) one of the critical lines in the sand for the US.

Combined to that you have a very different response and pushback from Japan and the US/SK. Assets being deployed to the area (missile defence system, ships, some planes).

This does not mean war is imminent or will occur. It does mean there is a lot of hardware and tension in a very confined space with previous non-escalation policies having been largely removed.

The good news is that the US has declared it will not try to shoot down the missile NK intends to test.

At this point, the main difference is that an incident like the Cheonan could spark something bigger.

As for "living through history", sorry steel but that is one of the dumbest things you have said here!

Maybe that's the way he feels. Who are you to say that's a stupid way to feel? Would you say the same about the countless numbers of war correspondents and photographers who have lost their lives over the years?. They thrived on the danger too in the same way and it was their choice to stay.

lordy! havent you people seen jurassic park!

I'm confused. What's the lesson?

Life, uh life, uh, finds a way?
Hold on to your butts?
Must go faster?
Not into the long grass?

Maybe its just...Nuh uh uh. You didn't say the magic word.

Actually, all of those might apply, right down to the pudgy chaos sower.

Quote:

I think someone who stays in a war zone in order not to "miss out on history being made" is making an odd choice.

At one point in life you have to go through the great adventure through which you may not return.