But he threw a chill into it by making stores contend with 60-degree temperatures when managers wanted you to be thinking of a white Christmas and spending lavishly on sweaters and boots along with toys and electronics. Now, as retailers plan for 2016, they are left with a question: How much of your hesitancy to shop came from spring-like weather, and how much is here to stay?

Analysts attribute some of the deep discounts you received during the holiday season to weather as mittens and winter coats were shunned. But that's not all. They think tough times are here to stay for department stores and specialty stores, and are warning people to be wary of owning retail stocks.

"We recommend steering clear of the apparel fray," JPMorgan analyst Matthew Boss said in a report to clients.

The major nemeses are Amazon and other online retailers, which have been devouring a good chunk of business that used to go solely to stores. In addition, analysts are blaming a season of boring fashion and other growing competition like off-price stores that sell specialty and department store brands at reduced prices.

Value is especially important to low- and middle-income shoppers with stagnant pay. And retailers like Macy's, which in the past enjoyed significant tourist business, are feeling the pressure of a weak global economy. Would-be travelers are avoiding the United States now that the dollar is strong, making U.S. visits expensive for foreigners with less valuable currencies.

During the holiday shopping season, ShopperTrak has found store traffic down week after week compared to the same time last year. Declines of 10 percent haven't been unusual.

"It could get worse before it gets better," said Morgan Stanley analyst Kimberly Greenberger.

Although the "consumer outlook for 2016 is looking good, consumers have not thrown caution to the wind," said Chris Christopher of IHS Global.

Meanwhile, analysts say retailers trying to escape the online pressure are feeling compelled to undertake the expense of offering online shopping themselves. With holiday sales estimated at $630.5 billion by the National Retail Federation, Adobe forecasts online sales of $83 billion, an increase of 11 percent over last year — a continuation of a trend that has been building each year.

While slashing prices and giving free delivery to lure customers this holiday season, retailers have also been investing in technology that will allow them to snare more of the online business themselves.

"More business going online is a fact of life, but we have to understand that this dynamic is a bad one for profits," Citigroup analyst Paul Lejuez said in a report. "Retailers have to spend a lot of money to allow this channel shift to occur because the customer demands it, and the investment is ongoing to keep up with the latest technology."

Bed Bath and Beyond, which sells mostly items not dependent on cold weather, reported sales growth of 25 percent in its digital channel, but the challenging environment both online and in stores left the company with profits far below analyst expectations. The stock has declined about 28 percent this year.

Boss notes in a report that promotional activity has been "fierce" for bricks-and-mortar retailers. And even weather might not cooperate for apparel retailers in 2016. While winter has been acting like spring, spring might be acting like winter.

Forecasts of a cold and wet spring through May, including late snow showers and deep freezes, could "reduce purchases of seasonal spring apparel," Boss said.

One area that's been a success has been athletic apparel, and analysts think it will get an extra boost from the Olympics next year. Nike has announced a 22 percent increase in profit and a 4 percent increase in revenue for the last quarter.

Analysts have been telling investors that it's best to pick a stock for a company known for its brand rather than a stock for a retail company. The logic: Nike's popular brand makes it possible for the company to sell directly to consumers online and also to operate its own stores. Nike has been the best performer in the Dow Jones industrial average this year, with the stock up about 35 percent.

Another successful retailer is Bolingbrook-based Ulta, which sells beauty products — everything from shampoos to makeup. The beauty segment in general has been considered a winner by analysts this year, but Ulta is given special praise for a strategy that combines more online sales with a store focus that also fights against online encroachment. It has hair salons in stores — and you can't get your hair cut and styled online. The company's stock is up 46 percent this year.

"Retailers that can defend against online encroachment will outperform in 2016," said Citigroup analyst Kate McShane in a report.

Home Depot and Lowe's seem resilient because they sell heavily to professional builders who go to stores for products like lumber and paint, rather than shopping online, McShane said.

Given the pressures on retailers, analysts expect to see stores closing in 2016.

Said Lejuez: "We believe a major problem in retail today is there are too many stores in too many malls, and retailers need to close stores. The problem is that even though many retailers have started closing stores, it doesn't seem to be helping those companies much."

A version of this article appeared in print on December 27, 2015, in the Business section of the Chicago Tribune with the headline "With e-commerce, contrary weather, stores left in lurch - Retailers expected to remain under pressure in 2016" —
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