Friday, June 19, 2015

The
election results in Wales were dire! The swing to the Tories was greater in
Wales (1.1%) than that to Labour (0.6%), unlike in England where it was 1.4% to
3.6%, but seven out of nine English regions swung to Labour, leaving Wales
alongside only two English regions that swung to the Tories, East Midlands and
South West.The swing to UKIP in Wales (11.2%) was greater than that in England
(10.7%), and there were huge votes for UKIP in most of the old mining valleys
seats which must have mainly derived from Labour as there was only a limited
Tory vote in most of these seats.

The two Welsh Labour seats lost to the Tories,
Gower and Vale of Clwyd, were the worst losses in the UK, excepting
Scotland, in terms of swing required,
and compare to seven such losses in England, where Labour gained ten seats from
the Tories but none in Wales, including the highly marginal Cardiff North which
should have fallen but actually swung back to the Tories, as did the other two
Labour targets, Carmarthen South and Vale of Glamorgan.

Plaid
only marginally increased their vote,from 11% to 12%, and failed to take Ceredigion or Ynys Mon, but
achieved a large swing in Rhondda and more modest swings in other valleys
seats, but failed in Llanelli where there was a swing to Labour. But this was one of the few positive
signs for Labour. Apart from the predictable swings against the Lib-Dems in
Swansea West and hugely in Cardiff Central, Labour’s only gain in Wales, there
were only five seats which registered a swing from Tory to Labour, only two of
these, both in Cardiff, with swings of over about 2%. But elsewhere, shockingly, there were
swings from Labour to Tory in 16 seats, six of them above 2%, and from Labour
to UKIP in six traditional, mainly valleys seats in South Wales.

The
Greens did relatively poorly, gaining only 2.6% of the vote against 4.2% in
England, although this is still a huge increase on their previous vote.

The
far left got their usual miniscule vote, with TUSC getting an average of 0.4%
in 12 seats, worse than the UK average of 0.6%. However, the SLP (the Arthur
Scargill Fan Club) scored relatively well, gaining an average of 1.3% in seven
seats, the only seats, curiously, that they contested in the whole UK.

It
is difficult to pinpoint why Labour did so badly in Wales. Poor organisation at
some levels could undoubtedly have been a factor, but there is no clear proof
that Wales was significantly worse than England in this respect, or the Tories
better. In two seats that I have some detailed knowledge of and where we did
badly, local organisation was good, although so was that of the Tories. There
are two factors that do not apply in England, the Welsh Government and a
nationalist party, but the vote for the latter was only marginally up, although
Tory attacks on the Welsh Government’s record on health and education may have
had some effect. Perhaps a general complacency, a feeling that Wales was
essentially a Labour country, was to blame. If so, then it is misplaced. While
the South Wales valleys remain predominantly Labour, despite the rise of Plaid
and UKIP there, there has always been significant support for the Tories and
Lib-Dems elsewhere, and while that is no longer so for the latter, at least for the moment, the Tory threat in Wales must be taken very
seriously.

It is an immediate threat, because of next
year’s Welsh Assembly elections, when on the basis of the recent results Labour
would lose four seats to the Tories and probably be seeking a coalition again
with Plaid, although the precedent was not an altogether happy one as some would point out. However, it could be
dependent on Plaid continuing on its left wing path. If the election proves unfruitful for them next year there
could be a reversion to a more centrist, cultural nationalist orientation where
a ’rainbow coalition’ with other parties is no longer seen as a less acceptable
option than one with Labour. That would in part depend on how many seats UKIP
gain, which will probably be at least four, all regional seats, at the expense
of the Lib-Dems who on present showing stand to be completely obliterated. Plaid would probably balk at any coalition
which included UKIP, and it is unlikely that a majority could otherwise be
realised, However, to forestall such a
possibility Labour must concentrate on shoring up its defences against a Tory
party in Wales that is hungry for more blood.

In a recent paper on the election in Wales, Nick suggested that a positive approach to Plaid
could be to call for Labour’s regional vote, which is largely wasted, to go to
Plaid to boost their chances against the
Tories and UKIP, as part of a ‘left front’ against the right.

For those
on the left the idea is superficially attractive, but in practice it would be
difficult to deliver, at least in most constituencies.

The key
reason is that Plaid are direct competitors, in three types of seats (figures refer to the 2011 Assembly election):

A) Seats
held by Labour where Plaid is second (8)

B) Seats
held by Plaid where Labour is second (3)

C) Seats
held by the Tories where Labour and Plaid are about equal second.(3)

It would be
difficult, to say the least, to call for a vote for a party which is the main
competitor, but this is the case in 14 seats, over one third of the total.

It is also
the case that in one region, Wales Mid and West, Labour has two regional seats,
so obviously would want to maximise its regional vote here, ruling out all
other seats in this region not included in A to C above (5).

There are
also Labour held seats where Plaid is third but are marginal and could fall on
an increased Plaid vote (7).

There is
also a marginal seat where Plaid is fourth and a seat where Plaid has a large
vote (2).

This leaves
fewer than a third of seats where Plaid poses no real threat to Labour and
where it might be feasible to call for a regional vote for Plaid, but even here
it would provoke strong opposition (12).

I therefore
cannot see that the policy, although worthy in its motivation, is deliverable,
except perhaps in such limited quantities as to render it not worth the effort
in terms of the divisions it would cause.

PS If the
results next year are similar to the recent election, the probable result would
be Labour on 26, the Tories 17, Plaid 12 and UKIP 5, with the Lib-Dems wiped
out. Let us hope that the Tory lead has declined by then.