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Friday, March 7, 2014

The DOW: Long-Term Elliott Wave Analysis Brief

It’s hard to believe
that the rally in stocks from the 2009 bear market low is now 5-years in the
making.Given that the last downturn
lasted just 2-years, and that numerous equity markets have recently printed
fresh historic highs, the argument that the ongoing bull market run is nothing
but a bear market rally, is a rather weak one. However,
considering the pressing challenges within the real economy (X-Wall Street),
the rather fragile geopolitical climate, and the slew of intractable budgetary
troubles around the globe, it is rather surprising that we have witnessed this
type of persistent and aggressive bull market continuing to evolve amid such
quantified uncertainties. Clearly, there
is a grand disconnect at play.By now, we suspect it is obvious to most, that state
sponsored central banks have been aggressively propping up (rigging) all financial
markets by whatever means necessary. In
case you had not noticed, free market capitalism has been absent for several
decades now. What we have instead, is a
growing police state of global fascism. Ultimately,
in due course, the ongoing desperate measures of such corrupt forces will
result in another catastrophic failure far worse than the last. Until that final-tick passes across the tape,
there is no limit to the contrived market extremes occurring on many exchanges.

The
following is our current read of the Elliott Wave tealeaves for the Dow
Industrials.Before we endeavor to briefly
articulate the wave count for the Dow, let us first define four upside price
targets that have established themselves via simple chart pattern breakouts.

As
noted on chart at the green up-arrows, the 18721 and 19725 targets shall remain
defended so long as the market trades above the falling green trendlines from
which each of these targets has spawned.
In addition, we have derived noted targets of 17796 and 18151 via
Fibonacci price extensions calculated from key pivots within this long-term
monthly chart.

Technically,
having no choice other than to ignore the fascist rigging of what should have
otherwise been a complete collapse in the financial system circa 2008-2009; we
are observing the 6469.95 bottom as an A-wave of Cycle dimension. The five-year miracle that follows, is
tracing out a larger three-wave advance as defined by the primary degree red
labels of A, B, and an eventual wave C, which remains in progress. Plausible turn months of interest on the
chart above come to fore in March 2015, and August 2016.

The
opposing tan trendlines represent a large expanding wedge pattern of which the
Dow is presently breaking above in bullish form. The lower falling boundary to this expanding
wedge registers south of Dow 6000 in the years 2015 and beyond.

In closing, the chart
above takes a closer look at some prospective turn months remaining for the
current calendar year. The present month
of March 2014 marks the first of three nearby turn-months followed by August
and October of 2014. Also noted on this chart is an additional
upside price target of 16600.