Let me start with an excerpt from what I wrote supporting a bet against the Nationals earlier this week:

“I understand that Max Scherzer is a better starting pitcher than Miles Mikolas – all the stats and advanced metrics make that very clear (not to mention Scherzer’s Cy Young awards on his mantelpiece). But – and it’s a big BUT – that’s about the only edge the Nationals have in this game. Despite Scherzer’s strong stats, Washington is just 1-5 in his six trips to the hill. The betting markets don’t offer a Scherzer discount – each of the Nats last four losses with him on the hill have come at -170 or higher. Washington isn’t hitting. Three of their four starting infielders are on the DL. Their bullpen is in shambles. Manager Dave Martinez seems to have lost the locker room. With just three wins in their last eleven games, the Nationals are clearly headed in the wrong direction; a ‘bet against’ squad tonight.”

Washington lost that game. They lost the opener of this series last night; another bullpen disaster; just 4-10 in their last 14 games. Embattled manager Dave Martinez just fired longtime pitching coach Derek Lillequist (if you want, watch the local news video report interviewing players following the firing – spoiler alert – they were NOT happy). Lillequist’s replacement Paul Menhart: “I have a unique way of doing things which is very difficult to explain. I’m a big believer in getting guys out as quickly as possible.” Simple – he’s management’s guy, not the players guy. This is NOT a happy locker room right now, and the Nats ‘five games under .500’ record is no accident.

The Phillies, on the other hand, are heating up, winners of five of their last six. Jake Arrieta has been eating up innings; the lineup has pounded out 29 runs in their last five contests and the bullpen is in solid current form. Short chalk worth laying….. Take the Phillies.