By Neel Kashkari, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis

Today, policymakers are paying increased attention to the so-called flattening yield curve — the difference in yields between long-term and short-term Treasury bonds. For the past 50 years, an inverted yield curve, where short rates are higher than long rates, has been an excellent predictor of a U.S. recession. In fact, during this half-century period, each time the yield curve has inverted, a recession has followed.

Some say, “No. This time is different,” and that the flattening yield curve is not a concern. The truth is we don’t know for sure.

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About Radnor Reports

Ken Feltman is past-president of the International Association of Political Consultants and the American League of Lobbyists. He is retired chairman of Radnor Inc., an international political consulting and government relations firm in Washington, D.C.
Know as a coalition builder, he has participated in election campaigns and legislative efforts in the United States and several other countries.