Why has Democratic enthusiasm dropped since February?

posted at 6:01 pm on July 25, 2012 by Allahpundit

Erika touched on this earlier but I’m less interested in the four-year trends (enthusiasm overall is down this year compared to 2004 and 2008) than in the monthly trends. The last time Gallup asked voters if they’re more or less enthusiastic to vote than usual was February, when the GOP led 53/45. Fast forward to this month’s poll and the split is … 51/39, with both parties’ numbers having dipped but the Dems’ down more sharply. How come? Is it a seasonal thing in election years? Maybe, maybe not:

Enthusiasm built steadily throughout the campaign in 2004 but it fell off a cliff in 2008 during the summer months before rebounding in the fall. The difference in those two years, I assume, is the epic Democratic primary between Obama and Hillary. Kerry had a relatively easy time of things in the primary so Democratic voters could focus on the general election from the outset. Not so in the death struggle of ’08; what you’re seeing in those numbers, in all likelihood, is a massive letdown among Hillary fans over the summer after she lost, with the predictable rebound in the fall as Democrats “came home.” Santorum tested Romney briefly in February and March but this year’s GOP primary was a lot more like the Democratic one in 2004 than in 2008 — and yet enthusiasm is still down a few points over the summer. In fact, although it’s Democrats who have slipped most since February, it’s actually Republicans who have slipped most since September 2011. Back then, Dems split 45/44 on the question of more/less enthusiasm while the GOP split 58/30. We’ve lost seven points over the last 10 months while Democrats have lost six. Why is that? Is it an artifact of the somewhat-contested primary or conservative tepidness towards Romney?

More from Gallup on the GOP’s overall advantage:

The voting enthusiasm measure gives a sense of Americans’ motivation to turn out and vote but probably also their expectations of their preferred party’s chances of winning. Thus, the Republican advantage may indicate a greater likelihood of voting among Republicans but also greater optimism about a Republican victory than was the case in 2008. In turn, Democrats are probably less optimistic about their chances of winning than they were in 2008.

Gallup has found a relationship between voting enthusiasm and the outcome of midterm congressional elections, with the party that has the advantage generally faring better in the elections. That pattern also held in the 2008 presidential election, with Democrats reporting greater enthusiasm throughout the year and Barack Obama winning the election.

All well and good, but don’t read too much into the GOP’s advantage here. Democrats led Republicans by 17 points in enthusiasm at this point in 2004 and we all know how the incumbent fared that time. But never mind that. Again, I’m wondering: Why has Democratic enthusiasm slid more over the past five months than the GOP’s? The most striking thing about Obama’s campaign strategy this year is how he’s scaled back his outreach to white working-class voters and other groups outside his base to focus on pandering to true-blue Dems in hopes of boosting turnout. That’s what his gay marriage “evolution” and his DREAM Act gambit were all about. And yet, if Gallup is to be believed, he’s eating a big ol’ shinola burger for it in terms of liberal enthusiasm. That doesn’t mean much yet — note how the 2008 numbers enthusiasm soared in September — but it’s still hard for me to explain. Are liberals just bored with the election? (Aren’t we all?) Depressed about the forever elusive economic recovery? (Surely.) Sick of The One’s face on TV every five minutes? (Possibly.) Okay, but still — the man’s delivering Grade A prime class resentment day after day with those Bain attack ads to try to get them excited. What more do they want?

Here’s Krauthammer insisting that, contrary to popular belief, he does in fact think Romney will win in November.

Okay, but still — the man’s delivering Grade A prime class resentment day after day with those Bain attack ads to try to get them excited. What more do they want?

well, since you asked

A Unicorn with a purple saddle and a tail i can braid
Peace in Tibet
Free Doobies, healthcare, housing, a new easil for my artwork, a puppy
a farmer’s market every day on every block
to preside over Mitt Romney’s public stoning
a new skateboard
George Bush on a pike
a Volt in Green color with “You can’t hug a child with nuclear arms” bumper sticker
a new maroon beret
condoms, lotsa condoms
a new messenger satchel
some new dreds
a starbucks card with 3 gajillion dollars on it
a new organic garden with compost heap
all republicans banished to Wyoming where they can be mertalized with drone strikes aaaand………
world peace

I’m having a down day, I am very pessimistic. It didn’t help that I saw former Mayor Koch, who seems relatively sane, on Cauvoto’s show. He said he is enthusiastic about Obama’s reelection because Obama has done a good job. What? What qualifies as a bad job?

That pattern also held in the 2008 presidential election, with Democrats reporting greater enthusiasm throughout the year and Barack Obama winning the election.

Given the GOP insisted on running John McCain, I can tell you that I was one Republican less than thrilled to be voting in 2008.

OT but important-

Local news is reporting about a four-year-old that accidentially shot himself with a handgun while sitting in a car. He subsequently died. It is a sad story made the worse by the stupid reporting that declares a four-year-old can accidentially shot himself. Sorry but there is an adult out there that is responsible for this death because there should have never been a point that the child was near that gun.

I find it hard to believe that any truth gets out with such lazy reporting.

um, the answer is really simple. The president has gone hard leftist, as in hard core GLBi friendly, San Francisco loving, Church hating leftie. The core of the DNC is not San Francisco but the black community. TBC may be leftist but they are somewhat socially conservative, especially when it comes to gays and the church.

Maybe the 2 things O has done over the last months are not so wildly received by the Dems: gay marriage and virtual amnesty. This hints that, contrary to some tepid pundits, we need to make hay out of these 2 issues.
Trumpet it! Trumpet that we won’t let them take gay marriage and open borders to extremes. Say it: we will stand for at least the middle ground. At least we won’t retreat all the way, at least we won’t lay down and say whatever. Independents and many Dems want a party like ours that will stand up for principle!

anotherjoe, you are correct. Hang gay marriage around their necks, and amnesty too (including the insane H1B1 program for engineers that hurt US college grads). Let the black community know that Obama is full on gay.

I’m having a down day, I am very pessimistic. It didn’t help that I saw former Mayor Koch, who seems relatively sane, on Cauvoto’s show. He said he is enthusiastic about Obama’s reelection because Obama has done a good job. What? What qualifies as a bad job?

It was actually the first Romney speech I’ve ever watched all the way through, even though I’m already resigned to voting for him. After watching that speech though, I’m there. He’s gonna win, and things are going to change for the better. How much I don’t know, but what else is there to hope for?

nailed it right there, after watching Europe fall apart since Obama came on the scene with his plan to embrace their form of socialism, he’s not going to get that past them again. And to think the thirty year push in education to set us up for it. Timing can be a bitch sometimes.

anotherjoe, you are correct. Hang gay marriage around their necks, and amnesty too (including the insane H1B1 program for engineers that hurt US college grads). Let the black community know that Obama is full on gay.

joeindc44 on July 25, 2012 at 6:24 PM

Hey Joe! Nice to see someone agreeing with me.
Darn right I’m correct! People are fuming about both issues. GET IT INTO THE MIX! And then even many Dems will vote our way. It’s just insane that these issues are being treated like they’re some kind of Leprosy. Staunch advocates of the leftist position on this aren’t going to vote for Romney anyway.
These 2 issues, like you imply, have the potential to not only gain tons of independents, but dispirit their base. Don’t be stupid: it’s not just about the economy.

All well and good, but don’t read too much into the GOP’s advantage here. Democrats led Republicans by 17 points in enthusiasm at this point in 2004 and we all know how the incumbent fared that time. But never mind that. Again, I’m wondering: Why has Democratic enthusiasm slid more over the past five months than the GOP’s?

So, it took 48 hours for your Eeyorism to come back full force after 2 weeks of vacation.

The Democratic enthusiasm has never been as high as it has been reported this year.

The polling expenses are obscene because they have been trying to sort out an enigma they cannot comprehend,

“Why are we not seeing enthusiastic support and high projected turnout with MORE people than ever dependent on government?”

The answer is simple. Dependency does not bring forth gratitude from the dependents. Anyone who has ever dealt with a child over 16 and, in many cases, all the way through college and beyond has direct experience with the dependent not being overwhelmed with gratitude.

In point of fact, anyone expecting this to be the result would themself be someone who is very comortable with the idea of being dependent on someone else.

The most striking thing about Obama’s campaign strategy this year is how he’s scaled back his outreach to white working-class voters and other groups outside his base to focus on pandering to true-blue Dems in hopes of boosting turnout.

.
Their polling has shown them they are not going to get enough white NON-working class voters to amount to a hill of beans. Their polling has also shown them the actual Democratic base voter enthusiasm is SO LOW they are going to be facing a Jimmy Carter level election debacle.

That’s what his gay marriage “evolution” and his DREAM Act gambit were all about. And yet, if Gallup is to be believed, he’s eating a big ol’ shinola burger for it in terms of liberal enthusiasm.

.
The gay marriage evolution has cost him big time in the African American community. By itself, it is enough to cost him the election on an electoral vote basis. The DREAM gambit is not universally popular with the immigrant coummunity either. Many of those who have been here for 20+ years have expressed opinions the illegal immigrant situation has gotten completely out of hand.

That doesn’t mean much yet — note how the 2008 numbers enthusiasm soared in September — but it’s still hard for me to explain. Are liberals just bored with the election? (Aren’t we all?) Depressed about the forever elusive economic recovery? (Surely.) Sick of The One’s face on TV every five minutes? (Possibly.) Okay, but still — the man’s delivering Grade A prime class resentment day after day with those Bain attack ads to try to get them excited. What more do they want?

.
Forest … trees … you fill in the blanks.

The lack of enthusiasm means EVERYTHING now. We are a little more than a month away from Labor Day.

The normal course of an election is for Obama to come out of the convention and pivot to the center.

Right now, the SCOAMF would come out, pivot and be met by a deathly silence … because without a base he can count on to be at the polls, he is going to look just a stupid as he really is trying to portray himself as a middle-of-the-roader this time around.

Their polling has already documented this fact.

I LOVE being invisible. It has been ingrained into every fiber of my being longer than many of you have been alive.

I AM a political agnostic by choice and experience. The big up side to being one? It makes it very easy to apply skills learned along the way to do objective analysis.

I have pointed out before – knowing who the ads are targeted at and where & how much your political opponent is spending of their ad money is a HUGE knowledge advantage.

Knowing they are spending OBSCENE amounts of money on polling/focus groups and their ads are having virtually no effect?
PRICELESS

I’m having a down day, I am very pessimistic. It didn’t help that I saw former Mayor Koch, who seems relatively sane, on Cauvoto’s show. He said he is enthusiastic about Obama’s reelection because Obama has done a good job. What? What qualifies as a bad job?

Cindy Munford on July 25, 2012 at 6:13 PM

..buck up, Cynthia! You’re doing fine! Koch is entitled to his opinion and — just maybe — he’s a little off this time. Visit QOTD tonight and blow off a little steam! I find this works for me.

$3.25 gas is the new low, 8% unemployment is the new low, and Egyptians are throwing tomatoes at Hillary… which is the new entertainment… Obama’s a shoe in for the dumb-ass vote.
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This on topic comment paid for by an “I made that” American.Romney 2012!

At some point Romney will have to give the voters a reason to vote for him. So far he is just asking voters to vote Obama out. He has won that argument. People want Obama out. Now on to the second part why to vote for Romney.

Romney has a huge problem with this one. Romney is very comfortable around Democrats. He makes friends with them and works well with them but not so with Republicans. In 2002 he said “I do not know or like a single Republican”. Thus the problem.

If he goes with his gut he will argue from a Democrat point of view why people should vote for Mitt Romney. He could probably build a convincing argument. However this will simply confuse the public who will say if he really feels that way why is he not running against Obama in the Primary? I can not feel good about someone who is not at least true to the ticket they are on. Thus he loses the Democrats, Independents and Republicans especially who would then hate him.

But he simply has no Republican story that even begins to ring true. He was a great Governor if you count great as getting Democrat policies into law. But that is now a Republican story. So he is left with no story.

If he tries a fake story people will examine who Mitt really is and wake up to the fact he is actually a Democrat in all important ways. Then he losses.

We might actually have a country afterall once we send Obama back to Chicago in January.

karenhasfreedom on July 25, 2012 at 7:27 PM

Can we put that on the ballot too?

Chicago is too much like letting Obama stay in the United States. I suggest we deport the bastard and his angry wife to one of the places he might have really been born. My choice would be Indonesia simply because it would be far easier for Mooch to get her lobster fix than Kenya.

Chicago is too much like letting Obama stay in the United States. I suggest we deport the bastard and his angry wife to one of the places he might have really been born. My choice would be Indonesia simply because it would be far easier for Mooch to get her lobster fix than Kenya.

Now tell me why should I vote for Mitt. Give me a good reason to vote for him. I do not like Obama. But why should I vote for Mitt? What will he do drastically different than Obama?

Because if he is going to be mostly the same I will stay with Obama. Better the crook I know than the one I do not know.

Steveangell on July 25, 2012 at 8:42 PM

You must vote your own conscience, but here are the reasons for the way I will vote:

1) Nothing will deprive me of the sheer pleasure of voting OUT this incumbent. Nothing. And now is the time to do it. It’s what you do with devils. I don’t even care if the next one is a worse devil (which is unlikely in any event), but you deal with the devil you got at the time you get to deal with him– and you dispose of him. You do that one. devil. at. a. time. Until you’re dealing with something besides a devil. It’s that simple, really.

Do you really need more reasons? Really? And I’m not being snide when I ask you that. You’re a sincere and passionate guy, no question about that. And mine is a question only you can answer for yourself.

Do you really need more reasons? Really? And I’m not being snide when I ask you that. You’re a sincere and passionate guy, no question about that. And mine is a question only you can answer for yourself.

de rigueur on July 25, 2012 at 9:51 PM

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No disrespect to you intended … but you are replying to a despicable moby who made statements on here saying the Soviet Union treated its people better than the United States treats it citizens.

Without the lies and deceptions of the mainstream media, Obama wouldn’t be a factor. Throw in the bias of the “polls” and Romney brings home the prize. The biggest reverse voting in the 2010 election in 70 years will look like a walk in the park.