A Forum for discussing emerging smart discoveries and emerging technologies with built-in intelligence or embedded smarts, as well as the new cognitive skills needed to succeed in the smart economy. The Smart Future is already here, just the last page hasn't been written yet! Every advance brings benefits as well as intrusions.
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December 28, 2010

ARMONK, NY - 27 Dec 2010: Today IBM (NYSE: IBM) formally unveiled the fifth annual "Next Five in Five" – a list of innovations that have the potential to change the way people work, live and play over the next five years:

The Next Five in Five is based on market and societal trends expected to transform our lives, as well as emerging technologies from IBM’s Labs around the world that can make these innovations possible.

In the next five years, technology innovations will change people’s lives in the following ways:

You'll beam up your friends in 3-D with holography chat

In the next five years, 3-D interfaces – like those in the movies – will let you interact with 3-D holograms of your friends in real time. Movies and TVs are already moving to 3-D, and as 3-D and holographic cameras get more sophisticated and miniaturized to fit into cell phones, you will be able to interact with photos, browse the Web and chat with your friends in entirely new ways.

Scientists are working to improve video chat to become holography chat - or "3-D telepresence." The technique uses light beams scattered from objects and reconstructs them a picture of that object, a similar technique to the one human eyes use to visualize our surroundings.

You'll be able to see more than your friends in 3-D too. Just as a flat map of the earth has distortion at the poles that makes flight patterns look indirect, there is also distortion of data – which is becoming greater as digital information becomes “smarter” – like your digital photo album. Photos are now geo-tagged, the Web is capable of synching information across devices and computer interfaces are becoming more natural.

Scientists at IBM Research are working on new ways to visualize 3-D data, working on technology that would allow engineers to step inside of a designs of everything from buildings to software programs, running simulations of how diseases spread across an interactive 3-D globes, and visualizing trends happening around the world on Twitter – all in real time and with little to no distortion.

Batteries will breathe air to power our devices

Ever wish you could make your lap top battery last all day without needing a charge? Or what about a cell phone that powers up by being carried in your pocket?

In the next five years, scientific advances in transistors and battery technology will allow your devices last about 10 times longer than they do today. And better yet, in some cases, batteries may disappear altogether in smaller devices.

Instead of the heavy lithium-ion batteries used today, scientists are working on batteries that use the air we breath to react with energy-dense metal, eliminating a key inhibitor to longer lasting batteries. If successful, the result will be a lightweight, powerful and rechargeable battery capable of powering for everything from electric cars to consumer devices.

But what if we could eliminate batteries all together?

By rethinking the basic building block of electronic devices, the transistor, IBM is aiming to reduce the amount of energy per transistor to less than 0.5 volts. With energy demands this low, we might be able to lose the battery altogether in some devices like mobile phones or e-readers.

The result would be battery-free electronic devices that can be charged using a technique called energy scavenging. Some wrist watches use this today – they require no winding and charge based on the movement of your arm. The same concept could be used to charge mobile phones for example – just shake and dial.

You won’t need to be a scientist to save the planet

While you may not be a physicist, you are a walking sensor. In five years, sensors in your phone, your car, your wallet and even your tweets will collect data that will give scientists a real-time picture of your environment. You'll be able to contribute this data to fight global warming, save endangered species or track invasive plants or animals that threaten ecosystems around the world. In the next five years, a whole class of "citizen scientists" will emerge, using simple sensors that already exist to create massive data sets for research.

Simple observations such as when the first thaw occurs in your town, when the mosquitoes first appear, if there’s no water running where a stream should be - all this is valuable data that scientists don’t have in large sets today. Even your laptop can be used as a sensor to detect seismic activity. If properly employed and connected to a network of other computers, your laptop can help map out the aftermath of earthquake quickly, speeding up the work of emergency responders and potentially saving lives.

IBM recently patented a technique that enables a system to accurately and precisely conduct post-event analysis of seismic events, such as earthquakes, as well as provide early warnings for tsunamis, which can follow earthquakes. The invention also provides the ability to rapidly measure and analyze the damage zone of an earthquake to help prioritize emergency response needed following an earthquake.

The company is also contributing mobile phone "apps" that allow typical citizens to contribute invaluable data to causes, like improving the quality of drinking water or reporting noise pollution. Already, an app called Creek Watch allows citizens to take a snapshot of a creek or stream, answer three simple questions about it and the data is automatically accessible by the local water authority.

Your commute will be personalized

Imagine your commute with no jam-packed highways, no crowded subways, no construction delays and not having to worry about late for work. In the next five years, advanced analytics technologies will provide personalized recommendations that get commuters where they need to go in the fastest time. Adaptive traffic systems will intuitively learn traveler patterns and behavior to provide more dynamic travel safety and route information to travelers than is available today.

IBM researchers are developing new models that will predict the outcomes of varying transportation routes to provide information that goes well beyond traditional traffic reports, after-the fact devices that only indicate where you are already located in a traffic jam, and web-based applications that give estimated travel time in traffic.

Using new mathematical models and IBM’s predictive analytics technologies, the researchers will analyze and combine multiple possible scenarios that can affect commuters to deliver the best routes for daily travel, including many factors, such as traffic accidents, commuter's location, current and planned road construction, most traveled days of the week, expected work start times, local events that may impact traffic, alternate options of transportation such as rail or ferries, parking availability and weather.

For example, combining predictive analytics with real-time information about current travel congestion from sensors and other data, the system could recommend better ways to get to a destination, such as how to get to a nearby mass transit hub, whether the train is predicted to be on time, and whether parking is predicted to be available at the train station. New systems can learn from regular travel patterns where you are likely to go and then integrate all available data and prediction models to pinpoint the best route.

Computers will help energize your city

Innovations in computers and data centers are enabling the excessive heat and energy that they give off to do things like heat buildings in the winter and power air conditioning in the summer. Can you imagine if the energy poured into the world's data centers could in turn be recycled for a city's use.

Up to 50 percent of the energy consumed by a modern data center goes toward air cooling. Most of the heat is then wasted because it is just dumped into the atmosphere. New technologies, such as novel on-chip water-cooling systems developed by IBM, the thermal energy from a cluster of computer processors can be efficiently recycled to provide hot water for an office or houses.

A pilot project in Switzerland involving a computer system fitted with the technology is expected to save up to 30 tons of carbon dioxide emissions per year the equivalent of an 85 percent carbon footprint reduction. A novel network of microfluidic capillaries inside a heat sink is attached to the surface of each chip in the computer cluster, which allows water to be piped to within microns of the semiconductor material itself. By having water flow so close to each chip, heat can be removed more efficiently. Water heated to 60 °C is then passed through a heat exchanger to provide heat that is delivered elsewhere.

July 10, 2010

Don't be surprised if one day your refrigerator nags you to lose weight, your phone blocks calls it figures you're too stressed to handle, and your wisecracking car entertains you with pun-filled one liners. Within a decade or two, researchers at Silicon Valley companies and elsewhere predict, consumer gadgets will be functioning like hyper-attentive butlers, anticipating and fulfilling peoples' needs without having to be told. Life would not only be more convenient, it might even last longer: Devices could monitor people's health and step in when needed to help them get better.

"I think it's inevitable," said Michael Freed, an artificial intelligence specialist and program director at Menlo Park, Calif., think tank SRI International, which has been studying the concept for the military. Noting that some of these gadgets already are being developed, he added, "I expect we'll see more soon -- a trickle and then a flood.''

The technology propelling this new generation of personal assistants is a combination of sophisticated sensors and carefully tailored computer software. As envisioned, the machines would adjust their own actions to the preferences and needs of an individual, by analyzing data on the person's past actions and monitoring current behavior with cameras, audio recorders, and other sensors.

Santa Clara, Calif., chipmaker Intel, which has been studying the technology for several years, believes that one day soon the gadgets will have the ability to read their owner's emotions.

While some experts have proposed that face and voice recognition gear be used to detect a person's disposition, Intel has been experimenting with heart monitors and galvanic skin-response sensors. A study it did last year envisioned the gadgets detecting mood swings "while people are driving, singing, chatting with friends, attending a boring meeting and even while going to the dentist."

Others expect household appliances eventually will be designed with human-like personalities. In a study this year that was partly financed by Nissan, researchers at Japan's Hokkaido University experimented with cheery-sounding devices that they imagined one day could serve as "artificial companions for elderly and lonely people" or as pun-spouting car navigation equipment that could "entertain drivers by talking and possibly by joking." Although some gadgets already make assumptions about what people want, such as word processing software that automatically corrects grammar, the devices contemplated by Intel, HP and other companies would be capable of much more sophisticated judgments about a broader array of human needs. That's a complex task -- so difficult that some experts are skeptical the technology will be ready in the near future.

"My guess is that we will get there in time, but it's a little further off than the most ambitious nnouncements from a lot of companies have indicated," said Bob Sloan, who heads the computer science department at the University of Illinois at Chicago. "There are a lot of hard problems to solve."

But other experts say the idea recently has become more practical because of the proliferation of computerized devices, from universal remote controls, MP3 players, air conditioning equipment and microwave ovens to security systems, lawn-sprinkler controllers, exercise equipment and toys. Because many of these devices come with cameras, global positioning systems and other sensors to monitor what's around them, these experts say, it's not hard to imagine them gathering enough data about people to act autonomously on their behalf, assuming the individuals let the gizmos have that authority.

One product that already claims to partly think for its owner is a "personal assistant" app for the iPhone and iPod developed by Siri, a San Jose company Apple bought in April.

Besides being able to recommend a good play, book a taxi and offer helpful reminders, the app -- which responds to verbal queries -- "adapts to your preferences over time," Siri claims. For example, ask it about a good place to eat nearby and it might suggest a certain type of restaurant you have picked before, a company spokesman said. He added that the app also can learn to recognize a person's voice and speaking style, which might make it easier for it to understand what the person is saying on a noisy street. Other products could be on the way soon, said Diane Cook, a researcher at Washington State University, which has an experimental smart house filled with such devices.

"We have companies large and small and in-between visiting us monthly -- IBM, Bosch, Qualcomm -- all wanting to commercialize it, all trying to decide what that first step is, that first niche," she said.

Stanford University operates a similar research lab. When it hosted a workshop on the technology three weeks ago, it attracted interest from Facebook, Google, Honda, Intel, Microsoft, Nokia, Panasonic, Sony and Hewlett-Packard, according to the lab's website.

Hamid Aghajan, who supervises the lab, foresees gadgets knowing enough about their human housemates to select appropriate lighting and music when the people are eating or reading, coaching them on their speaking skills during meetings and connecting them via social networking sites with people the gadgets determine share their interests.

Peter Harwell, a senior researcher at HP, believes such devices could be built into new homes within a decade or so, though he cautions they must operate "in a way that doesn't annoy the user."

One initial application of the technology is expected to be monitoring the elderly in their homes.

Oregon Health & Science University researchers say they have detected the onset of dementia in older people by using smart pill containers that record whether the person takes their medicine and motion sensors that can tell if their walking and dressing slowed, potential early signs of the disease.

Some experts believe it will be possible for a refrigerator with the right sensors to keep track of how much a person eats and to urge them verbally to adjust their calorie intake. And if the person gets seriously sick, these experts say, other gadgets might be able to detect the illness and alert authorities.

Even the military is interested. The Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency hopes to develop computerized assistants for commanders that "can reason, learn from experience, be told what to do, explain what they are doing, reflect on their experience and respond robustly to surprise."

All this raises concerns for Eric Goldman, who directs Santa Clara University's High Tech Law Institute. One issue is how to protect the privacy of the information the gadgets accumulate on people. "The more data we gather the more the government is going to want to get its paws on it," he said, adding that lawyers in court cases may try to obtain it, too. There also is no guarantee such a device "will do exactly what we want it to," he warned. "There is always the possibility that the smart agent will go rogue."

But others consider the potential benefits worth pursuing. That includes using the technology to rescue people from uncomfortable situations.

If a person gets a call from someone who stresses them out, according to Intel officials, their savvy phone might automatically switch the caller into a voice message. Another intriguing possibility could arise if the phone notices its owner is extremely tense in a meeting, added Lama Nachman, a researcher at the chipmaker. In that case, it might respond with what she termed an "exit phone call," a bogus ring that gives the person a convenient excuse to leave.

December 13, 2008

Both US president elect Obama and Canadian Prime Minister Steven Harper have promised "New Deal" like infrastructure programs for the USA and Canada to spend their way out of a depression / recession (pick one). A new term is needed to describe this type of new intelligence-infused infrastructure. I call it the cognistructure-an infrastructure that thinks for itself.

Here's my list of top 10 smart technologies that both Olbama and Harper should have their eye on and on their planning radar screens; (Niche applications 10-6, more ubiquitous applications 5-1)

I’d like to plant an idea with you – after speaking with a number of designers and vendors, I’m exploring the idea for a sustainability showcase that would feature theme based exhibits with smart technologies from Canadian and international sources-the best from Ontario, nationally and from around the world.

The launch would be 2010, The timing for this seems right. The target audience would be Canadian business, consumers and school children

I’m writing a book on smart technologies and this would be a logical extension of the concept.

Two years ago I talked to Samantha Sannella and Poala Polletto at the Design Exchange (DX) in Toronto and with several people at the Ont Science Center. Both groups expressed interest but said that we would need to find sponsors for the project

My business model for this would be three pronged -vendor based revenue, corporate based sponsor revenue and municipality based sponsorship ie city of Toronto or Mississauga and possibly the province of Ontario who may wish to promote sustainable manufacturing.

This concept would be a Canadian, in fact a North American first.

I have a list of 150 potential vendors, and designers from around the world who are working on smart technologies that we can start to approach.

The exhibits would be theme based, --the sustainable kitchen, the sustainable office, the sustainable retail shelf, the sustainable workspace, the sustainable community, the sustainable city etc and would be updated with new technologies every 3-5 years and have a 1-5 year forward focus. (what's commercially available now or in the very near future.

For other exhibits, there can be a regional or national focus ie smart sustainable technology from the UK, Finland, Germany (Fraunhofer Inst), China, Ukraine, Russia, or Singapore, Hong Kong etc

The Sustainability Showcase could be housed in a physical location, or it could tour from location to location around the city or province or be mobile ( on a bus the way the Japanese and Korean do- a display bus turned into a demo center that tours from school to school or to fairs and exhibitions.

OCAD students and staff and Beal senior fellows could play a hand in designing exhibit spaces and sourcing new vendors and sustainable technologies.

For anyone who is interested in exploring the idea of a Smart Sustainability Showcase for Toronto, we are having a meeting on Tuesday July 22 at 11 am at the Ontario College of Art & Design (OCAD), Beal Institute for Strategic Creativity, room 600, 6th floor , 100 McCaul St, Toronto just south of the Ont Art Gallery.

Please RSVP, so we know how many people are coming

I have had some positive feedback from several organizations, & I’d like to push the concept forward

I'm sending this nationally and internationally in case you are aware of any designers, vendors, manufacturers or research centers who have interesting cutting edge smart sustainable technology to showcase.

From the above study and from some of my own insights with clients, some of the common sources of technology foresight errors and miscalculations include:

The early hype error. In the stort term, marketers, promoters and eager inventors seem to overestimate the impacts of any new technology and in the long term underestimate such impacts and consequences (see the Gartner Hype curves)

The replacement hype error-the belief that new technology will replace the existing incumbent technology & that this will happen relatively fast. In reality competing technologies often coexist over a long period of time (i.e. Radio & TV)

The enhancement error-The belief that new technology will only solve old problems & supplement existing technological systems. Instead new technologies, especially platform or core technologies often lay the groundwork for entirely new systems and new resulting systemic problems. (ie the electric motor for the railway, the car for the roadway infrastructure, the PC for the Internet, nanotech & biotech for our bodies "intra-structure" (the Human Genome project, the HapMap & SNP's), the impacts of which we do not fully understand yet.

The panacea error-The mistaken belief that new technology will function as a panacea for various social problems

The patterning and sense-making error-The difficulty of seeing new important links between seemingly unrelated and different fields of technology, especially in cases where this novel combination of fields is precisely what will offer major accelerated development opportunities

The social impacts error-Often people who have tried to predict the future have become bogged down in the actual technology and neglected the economic and social aspects.

The prisoners of our times error-That without realizing it, people tend to be prisoners of the spirit of their times ( Zeitgeist), erroneously believing that the big issues of today will also be the big issues of tomorrow

The decision criteria error-The belief that only rational economic considerations are the only factors behind that choice of one technology over another. However, for many people, seemingly irrational considerations determine such choices

The information gap error-The information on which science and technology (S&T) foresight studies are based on is often insufficient. Technology development is not linear, transparent or fully predictable, with surprise development coming out of left field such as the secret work that is done in the military or a new startup working in stealth mode before it goes public with a breakthrough. Entrepreneurs have to deal with many unknowns -complexity, uncertainty, equivocality, ambiguity, the trap of dichotomous thinking or dichotomy, contradiction or paradox and infoglut.

From the above, the only thing we can predict for sure is that unexected things will happen

Marshal McLuhan was the "master" in predicting the social impacts of new technologogy (in his case the media) with deadly accuracy. Marshal would ask himself 4 simple questions, which he called the tetrad, to explore the impacts and consequences of any new technology, that he didn't fully understand yet. 1) What does the technology enhance? 2) What does the technology make obsolete? 3) What does the technology retrieve that had been obsolesced earlier? 4) What does the technology flip into when pushed to extremes?

Entrepreneurs can learn how to use this 'tetrad" tool and as well as many other tools that help develop entrepreneurial and S&T insight and foresight.

Source: Certificate in Innovation and Entrepreneurship, University of Toronto, SCS see here

June 06, 2007

Governments around the world promise many items during elections or at key international events, but these are quickly forgotten by voters.

According to a Press Release issued by the G8 Research Group:

THE VERDICT IS IN ON ST. PETERSBURG: G8 HAS A LONG WAY TO GO

Researchers Release Comprehensive Review of G8 Performance

KÜHLUNGSBORN, GERMANY - As German Chancellor Angela Merkel opens the 2007 G8 Summit in Heiligendamm, a new report suggests that G8 countries have a long way to go to meet their 2006 commitments made at St. Petersburg. The G8 has complied with only 46% of its priority promises since the summit last July. While this is an average performance for the G8 over the past 10 years, the G8 has not scored this poorly since the 2002 Kananaskis Summit, with its 33% score. The G8 Research Group's annual Compliance Report, released today on the G8 Information Centre website , assesses G8 members' compliance with selected priority commitments from the 2006 St. Petersburg Summit, including energy security and support for African peacekeeping. The report is the product of analysis conducted by the G8 Research Group at the University of Toronto and Moscow's State University Higher School of Economics.

The environment and Africa are set to top the G8 agenda at Heiligendamm and the G8's record on these issues over the past year has been mixed.

The G8 fulfilled fewer than half of its commitments to develop national energy efficiency action plans and clean public transport. While the St. Petersburg Summit offered little in the way of ambitious climate change initiatives, G8 countries easily complied with 89% of the promises they did make. At the same time, compliance was high with St. Petersburg commitments on debt relief for Africa and support for renewable energy technologies in developing countries, both of which had 89% compliance scores.

The United States, the United Kingdom and Canada have the highest compliance at 60%.

Current Host Germany is slightly behind at 55%,

Former Host Russia achieved only 45%, despite all the grandiose promises from Putin.

France and Japan scored 40%, and

Italy again came in last place at only 5%.

All G8 countries kept fewer of their promises than they did after the 2005 Gleneagles Summit, except for the Russian Federation, which, as host of its first regular summit in 2006, improved its average compliance score by about 25%, (....starting from a low compliance baseline however)

"In the three areas of focus at the St. Petersburg Summit -- energy security, health and education -- the G8 countries only register 69%, 41% and 33% compliance, respectively," said Laura Sunderland, senior researcher with the G8 Research Group. "Particularly since Germany assumed the G8 presidency in January, G8 members have increased compliance with half of their commitments."

The G8 Research Group's mission is to serve as the world's leading independent source of information and research on the G8 and its institutions. Founded in 1987 and based at the University of Toronto, it is an international network of scholars, professionals and students interested in the activities of the G8. For more information, please visit here.

Expert, Consultant and Keynote Speaker on Emerging Smart Technologies, Innovation, Strategic Foresight, Business Development, Lateral Creative Thinking and author of an upcoming book on the Smart Economy "

December 18, 2006

The Horizon Scanning Centre has commissioned two complementary scans looking ahead up to 50 years : the Sigma Scan and the Delta Scan.

Initial versions of both scans have been published by the contractors who developed them : Sigma Scan by Outsights - Ipsos MORI and Delta Scan by the Institute for the Future (IFTF).

The Sigma Scan is a broad synthesis of some of the world's best Horizon Scanning sources. It covers future issues and trends across the full public policy agenda. It is drawn from a range of sources including think tanks, academic publications, mainstream media, corporate foresight, expert/strategic thinkers, government sources, alternative journals, charities/NGOs, blogs, minority communities, and futurists.

The Delta Scan is an overview of future science and technology issues and trends, with contributions by over 200 science and technology experts from the worlds of government, business, academia and communication in the UKand US.

Develeped over 2005 and 2006 by a team of consultants and futurists, the Scanning Framework has some novel methodologies and catagories. Each main issue is described as an Issue paper.

The main text of the Issue Papers themselves is divided into a number of different sections:

Headline: Headlines provide a brief description of the future eventuality discussed a pithy note on the main themes contained within the paper.

Keywords: Keywords summarise the coverage of the issue and suggest related issues, domains or topics.

Summary: The summary provides first an Abstract of the Issue (delimited by asterisks) for a quick overview of the whole paper, followed by a description of the trend, event or theme and the debates it raises. This is generally a presentation of the data/evidence in this field, linked where necessary to sources (with no fixed view on likely outcomes).

Implications: this contains a range of possible outcomes that could flow from the Issue as described in the Summary. These incorporate a number of factors where appropriate, including social values, habitat/environment, new technologies, knock-on and perverse effects. Early Indicators: This aspect of the Paper suggests possible early warning signs and precursors that should be looked for to indicate that the Issue may indeed be developing as described in the Paper.

Drivers and Inhibitors: Factors, people, institutions or events which will either fuel (Drivers) or act as a barrier (Inhibitors) to the emergence of this Issue.

Parallels and Precedents: Historical, international or cross-cultural examples of somewhat similar instances which may shed some light either on the evolution of the Issue or the likely success of different strategies in response.

Sources: The list of sources consulted in writing the Paper, with web links, documents and location information where applicable.

Related links: a list of websites that may be of further interest to the reader relating to the topic

Sigma Scan basics: Issue Markers

Each issue has been further labelled with a number of Markers, which provide highly indicative (i.e. not predictive) information about the possible likelihood, impact, distribution, severity and development time of each Issue:

Impact: This marker is designed to reflect the potential of this issue to create pervasive and/or serious change in the world at large: a development which in cultural, technological, environmental, economic or political terms alters the way we live or perceive the world. Impact is divided into:

****Extreme: Intense, deep-seated, pervasive or long-lasting in its effects. An event/development which profoundly affects the planet for example, an asteroid strike.

***High: A great event in human history, something that shapes human history and leaves longstanding cultural residues for example, the moon landings, the establishment of the United Nations, a major pandemic.

**Medium: A defining aspect of a particular generation or nation's experience of the world. An important footnote in world history, such as the implementation of the Euro, the fall of the Berlin Wall.

*Low: A development whose scope to instigate change is subtle or in some way restrained by conditions, medium, force, locality or likely responses. Something that captures the news agenda for months or years, but eventually fades into the cultural memory for example, the cultural changes of the 1960s.

?Unknown: There is no consensus within the literature about how best to interpret this issue.

Likelihood: The likelihood that this issue will evolve to become a central theme/development - in some way - in future society within its projected life span. The likelihood markers are:

***High: 75+% confidence that the events discussed will come to pass.

**Medium: An equivocal 50/50 call.

*Low: 25% or less probability.

?Unknown: No consensus about the likelihood.

Controversy: The level of consensus amongst experts, commentators and other observers holds that the Issue will unfold in the way described in the Paper and/or assume a greater significance in acting as an instigator of change. The controversy markers are:

***High: Very few experts pay the issue serious attention, and there is very little consensus about the extent to which this issue is likely to emerge. There is very little known evidence for this issue, and what there is highly unconventional, or propounded by alternative sources.

**Medium: Whilst there is some kind of conventional consensus, futurists and/or alternative sources dispute whether this issue is likely to be a central development in future. Evidence is somewhat equivocal or open to scrutiny, even within expert audiences.

*Low: The majority of experts, as well as a large volume of authoritative evidence, point to this issue emerging as a central theme over the next 50 years.

?Unknown: No known consensus on how to apply this marker.

When: The expected timeframe for this issue to influence C.21st life to the degree ascribed to it under "Impact". Divided into:

0-2 years: This impact of this issue is already being felt or will be in the immediate future

3-10 years: Likely to be under way but perhaps not well distributed. Wider effects felt over the near horizon

11-20 years: Mid horizon effects

21-50 years: Mid to far horizon effects

50+ years: Far horizon effects ?Unknown: High level of uncertainty as to when this impact could be felt

Global Potential to be experienced anywhere/everywhere on a global scale

?Unknown

How fast: How quickly the events and potential impacts described in the Paper could be experienced:

Instant in a matter of moments

Days over the course of days

Months over months

Years over years

Unknown

Sigma Scan basics: Issue Genres

As well as the markers, each paper is also classified into a number of different Genres. This is identified at the start of the Summary in capital letters and is supplied as an at-a-glance way for users to decide what sort of critical thinking they should apply to their reading of the paper. (e.g. in the same way that we would apply different critical faculties for reading a work of science fiction than we would for reading todays newspaper).

Weak signal: A primarily descriptive Paper attempting to shed light on a relatively little known, weakly felt or poorly distributed phenomenon a possible baby trend at the relative margins of current knowledge. The Implications of this style of paper tend to be limited to explaining what is already starting to happen, and the Drivers / Inhibitors are important in deciding whether it will grow into a Key Driver or dwindle into nothing. The aim of Weak Signal papers is to inform readers about trends or potential events that might slip under the radar.

Forecast: An Issue for which there is a relatively high degree of certainty, at least in terms of its likely presence as a force for change, based as it is on robust quantitative data and relatively stable variables. Forecast papers are based upon well-grounded and authoritative sources, drawing on models or statistics to draw conclusions.

Key driver: These Papers describe a relatively more mainstream and better-known trend or development. Something that would probably on the radar of most policymakers or strategy thinkers. Key Driver papers provide a top-level review of the trend for the uninitiated, and aim to stretch the more informed reader with some wider Implications Parallels / Precedents beyond the usual inferences and certainties.

Scenario: A Paper which takes as its evidence base published scenario work from other sources. It therefore discusses the range of uncertainties and drivers that have been discussed in developing these scenarios and compares the assumptions in them. Rather than describing a possible driver of future change, it therefore examines the feasibility and possible implications of a particular hypothetical future.

Wildcard: An Issue with the potential to emerge unexpectedly but with potentially major impacts. Often, these papers deal with a radical discontinuity, as compared to other, more continuous and/or gradual trends.

September 15, 2006

Today marks the 1st anniversary of the Smart Economy Blog. We've received many encouraging feedback & emails from our readers over the past year and good suggestions from positive-focused critics for future improvements.

According to Pingpoat, The Smart Economy Blog is worth is $1011.17! per day

Inbound links: 1085

Technorati rank: 34,021

So today, I'm announcing a series of new "smart" initiatives that we will be kicking off in October 2006.

The Smart Economy is growing exponentially and so are we, right along with it.

Smart Economy Learning Series-monthly workshops in Toronto

Starting in October 2006, we will be launching a monthly series of one-day workshops on topics that our blog readers say interest them. These include:

Building a Busines Case for Smart Devices, objects and services (Date TBA)

Designing winning business modles for Smart Technologies (Date TBA)

Register today, since space will be limited. Past workshops have sold out quickly.

The Smart Economy Web Page

We are finally in the last stages of planning and constructing our new web site for the Smart Economy. Watch out for launch date soon.

The Smart Economy Webinar Series.

Also starting in October 2006, we will host a monthly opportunity for our blog readers to phone in and participate in a "live seminar" which will include power-point slides and a Q&A session, all from the comfort of your PC or laptop. It will be on some current topic related to the smart economy and some rising smart technology that will be coming into prominence soon. This will be a subscription based series.... We will try to keep the price reasonable so that everyone can participate. Subscription information & schedule will be out soon. Watch for announcements.

Expert, Consultant and Keynote Speaker on Emerging Smart Technologies, Innovation, Strategic Foresight,, Business Development, Lateral Creative Thinking and author of an upcoming book on the Smart Economy "

September 12, 2006

Today is a bit of an anniversary for the Smart Economy. Since I started on this blog last Fall (Sept 15th, 2005 to be exact), I've posted 500 entries (this is # 501). We've received over 100 comments online and many more private direct emails. Our daily traffic is growing steadily month by month, as word spreads about The Smart Economy. Many other influential and popular web sites, trend syndication services and blogs now link back to us.

According to Pingpoat, The Smart Economy Blog is worth is $1011.17! Per day

Inbound links: 1085

Technorati rank: 34,021

I'd like to hear feedback from you --- our blog readers. How can we improve this site?

what do you enjoy reading about smart technologies?

what else would you like to see?

what don't you like? what annoys you?

what suggestions do you have for future topics?

what would you like to see more coverage of?

do you use RSS? would you subscribe to a Smart Economy RSS news feed?

would you like to hear news about the smart economy on your Mp3 player?

would you like a one-stop-shop to purchase smart technologies?

would you find road maps for smart technologies useful for your worK?

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Enjoy the rest of 2006 and 2007 and I hope to see you back here on a regular basis.

August 17, 2006

Ray Kurzweil presented his vision of rapidly accelerating technological developments in a keynote speech at the WFS conference in Toronto two weeks ago. His talk was a recap of his most recent book, The Singularity Is Near: When Humans Transcend Biology.

Here are some of the highlights that I noted:

Re Innovation

Paraphrasing

….The key to success is timing….Most inventors will build exactly what they say they will build, but most of those projects will fail because of timing. Not all the enabling factors will be in place to be successful."

Re Technology S-Curves

Kursweil's Technology S Curves for 2010 or 2015 follow predictable trajectories, due to the dynamics of complex systems.

"If we can't predict a single project, how can be predict the overall impact of a technology? These kinds of measurements of IT follow very predictable trajectories. And you might wonder? How can that be, when they are really dependent on millions of people, thousands of projects, each of which is completely unpredictable."

We see that a lot in the dynamics of complex systems. Complex systems are made up of lots of chaotic elements, each element is completely random and unpredictable, yet the properties of the overall system take on certain properties that are highly predictable."

Specific projects are hard to predict, but ask me what the cost of MIPS of computing might be in 2010, or what the cost to sequence a DNA base pair in 2012 will be or the spatial resolution of brain scanning in 2014, I can give you a figure that's likely to be accurate. A side benefit of these models is that we can anticipate not just 2 ,3 4 years from now, but 10 years from now, 20 years from now. And we can actually build technology with the capabilities of 2020 and 2030, not in actuality, but we can imagine what the world will be like and what the impact will be, by envisioning what's feasible in those future technologies."

Kursweil makes a good case in how pervasive this exponential growth is, how predictable it is, and how smooth it is in so many different fields and surprisingly, uninterrupted and undisturbed by world events, such as world wars or other calamities etc ( shows a number of S-Curves from his book)

re Technology and Biological evolution

-Paradigm shifts are doubling in frequency

-IT evolution is accelerating and so is Biological evolution --Law of accelerated Returns

....By 2013

-Computers with the power to simulate the human brain should arrive around 2013.

-Simulations will eventually surpass animal models (i.e. lab mice, etc.) for medical research and drug discovery.

-You will be able to download instructions from the Internet to reprogram artificial white blood cells in your body to combat specific diseases.

And by 2029:

-$1,000 dollars worth of computing power will equal 1,000 times the power of the human brain.

-We will have reverse engineered the brain.

-A computer will pass the Turing test. (Robo-sapien? --Walter Derzko)

-Nanobots will provide nonsurgical neural implants that will expand human intelligence and allow for full-immersion virtual reality from inside the nervous system.

Two Key Points

Immortality? Probably not; Life Span extension..... More than Likely

With the expected rapid advances in intelligence and stunning medical breakthroughs by 2020 — Kurzweil predicts, our lives will be lengthened by more than a year for every year we live.

Kurzweil does suggest that if baby boomers just hold on for another fifteen years or so (eat right, excerise, lead healthy lifestyle etc) , they’re looking at a lot more lifespan than we previously could predict.

Re Perils of Technology

Kursweil asked the audience for their ideas: how can we solve the perils of emerging technologies --the downside of technology ..more of my thoughts on that in a future post (see Perils of Emerging Technologies)

Expert, Consultant and Keynote Speaker on Emerging Smart Technologies, Innovation, Strategic Foresight,, Business Development, Lateral Creative Thinking and author of an upcoming book on the Smart Economy "