CHAPTER 1: FINDINGS

The Energy and Transportation Task Force was to develop both short- and
long-term policy Trecommendations for the Council that could help guide
the nation toward a more sustainable energy and transportation future.
Indispensable to the Task Force's deliberations was information drawn from
a wide variety of sources, and the Sustainable Energy and Transportation
Scenarios Project designed to illustrate policy implications of alternative
futures.

Although environmental objectives are only one of the three components of
sustainable development, pollution can be an important indicator of how
efficiently economic and natural resources are used. Various emissions from
energy and transportation use are related to different environmental concerns--
such as local air quality and acid rain. Carbon dioxide emissions are
of concern because of their important role in changes that are occurring in
the chemical composition of the atmosphere that influence global climate.
These changes are occurring at an accelerating rate with consequences that
are difficult to predict with certainty or precision. Moreover, they cannot
be quickly reversed after their consequences have been fully understood.

The Council heard a set of presentations concerning the science of climate
change, the risks, and the uncertainties. The Earth is kept at a life-supporting
temperature by a blanket of gases that trap some of the energy the earth
radiates. Water vapor, carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide are the
principal gases that create this natural greenhouse effect. With the
industrialization of the past 150 years, atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse
gases have increased and new greenhouse gases have been added to the atmosphere.
The most important greenhouse gas that is influenced by human activity is
carbon dioxide, the buildup of which results primarily from buming fossil
fuels and deforestation. Concentrations of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere
have increased by about 30 percent over preindustrial levels.5 (See figure 6.)

The buildup of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere is expected to lead to an enhanced
greenhouse effect, popularly referred to as global warming. Because of the enormous complexity of the Earth's climate system, it is not possible to predict with certainty
the temperature rise or other effects of global warming. The Earth has warmed
by about Io F since preindustrial carbon dioxide levels. Subsequently to the Task
Force's deliberations, the international scientific community, as represented by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, stated that the balance of evidence suggests emissions of greenhouse gases and aerosols have caused a discernible human influen
ce
on global climate. The models used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change* predict a warming of 0.8o>C to 3.5o C by the
year 2100, although the resulting effects are much less clear.6 (See figure 7.) Generally though, models predict that
it will lead to a rise in sea levels, and suggest the possibility of drought
and/or floods in some places and the possibility of more extreme precipitation
events.7

* The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change was convened by the
World Meteorological Association and the United Nations Environment Program.
Its second assessment, completed in late 1995, involved 2000 scientists and
technical experts from 130 countries as authors and reviewers.

U.S. emissions of carbon dioxide account for approximately 25 percent of global
emissions. In the future, however, carbon dioxide emissions from developing
countries will increase rapidly as their economies develop. (See figure 8.)
If current trends continue, without changes in technologies and consumption,
emissions from developing nations will surpass those from the Organization
for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), former Soviet Union, and
Eastern Europe in several decades.' Nonetheless, for decades to come the
industrial nations will be responsible for most of the carbon dioxide in the
atmosphere resulting from human activities.

It is clear that the United States cannot solve the potential problem of
climate change alone. Further, it is also clear that unless the industrialized
nations demonstrate that a different development path is possible and beneficial,
the rest of the world will be reluctant to join in efforts to resolve the
problem. Solutions and innovations developed for the United States can be
adapted to conditions and cultures in developing countries to help them achieve
their aspirations for an improved quality of life.

Figure 9Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, The Effect of
Imports of Crude Oil and Refined Petroleum Products on the National Security
(Washington, D.C., 1994), pp. ES-4 and 11-10.

Although the United States is an oil producers, increasing U.S. consumption
of petroleum products from politically unstable regions of the world is an
important economic and national security concern. U.S. imports of petroleum
products are projected to continue to rise, as are oil exports from the
Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) in the Middle East.
(See figure 9.)

Figure 10Source:Annual Energy Outlook 1995, p. 113, table B11.

The US. transportation system relies almost entirely on oil, accounting for
64 percent of the oil consumed in the United States. (See figure IO) Improved
technology continues to offer the potential for more sustainable fuels and
vehicles. However, an array of alternative domestic fuels is beginning to
appear in the marketplace along with vehicles capable of using them. Natural
gas, other alternative fuels, and electricity power three percent of the
nation's vehicles. (See figure 11.)

Figure 11Source:Annual Energy Outlook 1995, p. 100, table B2.

Major gains have been made in automobile fuel efficiency in the last 15 years,
but those gains have been overwhelmed by other market forces and demographic
changes to maintain and increase oil consumption. The real cost of driving
per mile has dropped over the same period.9
Americans are again turning to bigger cars and light trucks, and are driving more miles. Further, even today's more efficient vehicles only turn an average of 20
percent of the energy they consume into actual motion.10 All of these factors lead to increased oil imports
and continued air pollution problems in metropolitan areas.

Innovative community design that conveniently locates homes, employment,
markets, and recreation can reduce the need for motorized travel. Further,
innovations in the telecommunications industry are increasingly enabling people
to share ideas and produce goods and services with less travel.

There are important differences in the transportation challenges facing
rural areas and those found in large U.S. cities and their surrounding
suburbs, although these challenges stem from a related set of factors.
The latter part of the 20th century has been characterized by increased
concentration of the U.S. population in metropolitan areas. The number
of Americans living in metropolitan areas increased 65 percent from 1970 to
1992, a result of net migration of people to metropolitan areas as well as
overall population growth. II Despite the improvements in vehicle efficiency
of the past 20 years, transportation in many metropolitan areas is characterized
by increasing commutes for work and other activities, rising traffic congestion,
continued air quality challenges, aging inner city infrastructure, and
increased pressure on public spaces and services. All of these factors lower
the quality of life and have contributed to a nationwide flight from high-density
central cities to suburban areas. As populations and economic development
relocate to lower-density areas where homes, schools, stores, and jobs are more
spread out, more people need to travel farther to reach employment and other
important destinations. Traffic congestion, and the waste of fuel and time
increase as do their associated economic, environmental, and equity impacts.

In some rural areas, the population movement to the cities has contributed to
economic decline, and has increased the distances between people and economic
opportunities, and essential goods and services. The effects on economic
prosperity, environmental performance and social equity are
significant--particularly given lower-income individuals'ability to reach
these important places. As communities develop opportunities to revitalize
their local economies, the increased distances between people and places
becomes a critical hurdle. Productive and expanding rural industries often
find large segments of the potential unemployed workers reside more than 20
miles away. Further, segments of rural populations not only find themselves
without a means to reach prospective employers, but also necessary goods and
services such as health care.