The Ravens attempted a field goal on a 4th-and-15 on the Bills’ 32.
The NYT 4th Down Bot would have done the same thing.

If you disagree

The coach and I agree that attempting a field goal is the thing to do here, but you may be thinking it makes sense to punt. That would be the right call if you think the Ravens’ chances of making a field goal are less than 65 percent. But based on my analysis of over 13,000 field goal attempts since 2001, I give the average kicker a 81 percent chance to make a kick from this distance in a outdoor stadium.

Here's the full breakdown of my calculations:

Option

Chance of converting

Chance of winning

Before play

After play

Change

Field goal try49 yard kick (est.)

81%

62%

63%

+1%

Punt

62%

61%

–1%

Go for it4th and 15, opp. 32

10%

62%

58%

–4%

My decision in context

Along with some circuitry to come up with a win probability for every game situation, all you need to figure out what you should do next is an estimate of how likely you are to make a field goal or convert a first down.

My estimates for these are based on the results of thousands of similar plays, but you may think you're smarter than I am. This chart shows you how changing those estimates would change my recommendation.

What to do on 4th-and-15 on opp. 32

Tied with 0:41 remaining in the 1st quarter

What coaches usually do

Field goal try

69% of the time

Punt

28% of the time

Go for it

3% of the time

Based on about 1,385 fourth downs in similar situations since 2001.

What happened

Justin Tucker 50 yard field goal attempt is GOOD.

Where did these numbers come from?

To estimate a team’s chances of winning, I use a mathematical model that accounts for a whole lot of variables — including the difference in score, the time remaining in the game, and the number of timeouts each team has left. On top of that, I have models for the likelihood that a team makes a field goal and the likelihood that it will convert a first down.

By combining all of this information, I can come up with the best decision a team can make, according to math.

If you want even more details about the numbers behind my decisions, my full model is available on GitHub. Help make me better!