26 Jan 2012: Report

For the Electric Car, A Slow Road to Success

The big electric car launches of 2011 failed to generate the consumer excitement that some had predicted. But as new battery technologies emerge and tougher mileage standards kick in, automakers and analysts still believe that electric vehicles have a bright future.

by jim motavalli

At the Detroit Auto Show early this month, I sat down with some Nissan executives who were celebrating the sale of the 10,000th Leaf battery car in the U.S. (and 20,000th worldwide). Behind them on the company’s stand was the eNV200, a plug-in version of one of Nissan’s minivans and one of three new electric cars Nissan will have on the road by 2015. Brendan Jones, a Nissan marketing and sales strategist, told me, “From a Leaf perspective, 2011 was a great year, and very positive for the company.” He said that Nissan’s EV sales had topped those of any other automaker in history.

By traditional auto standards, 10,000 sales of a much-hyped model in a full calendar year are disappointing. The Chevrolet Volt plug-in hybrid, equally celebrated, did slightly worse, with sales of 7,671 in 2011. By contrast, Nissan sold 114,991 Sentras and 268,981 Altimas last year, and Chevrolet sold 204,808 Malibus.

View a gallery of electric vehicles unveiled at the Detroit Auto Show, including the 2012 Chevy Volt, above.

Since the Obama administration offered subsidies to ease the EVs way forward, the early sales performance became the target of political attacks, particularly after a Volt caught fire following a government crash test. (The car was later exonerated by federal regulators.) The Republican Party’s website headlined an article “Failed Promise: Obama’s Million Electric Cars ‘Overly Optimistic.’” Mitt Romney, the son of an auto company president, described the Volt “an idea whose time has not come,” and Rush Limbaugh said bluntly, “Nobody wants to buy any.”

But much of the reporting on the subject, and the attacks, failed to tell the full story. Neither the Volt nor Leaf were available nationwide in 2011, and both were plagued by supply problems. Leaf customers on the East Coast, who put down early deposits, should be getting their cars in the coming months, and Nissan hopes to double production and delivery in 2012. The EV technology is still a novelty for prospective buyers, but the necessary charging networks, though still embryonic, are growing rapidly.

Yet while the big electric car launches of 2011 failed to find as many buyers as hoped, automakers and analysts still see increasing success for electric vehicles in the U.S. and in global markets, including China, which will soon be the world’s largest. The future, they say, lies in new battery technologies that will lower the cost and increase the range of EVs. And tougher mileage standards for U.S. auto fleets, set to kick in over the next decade, will give the cars a big boost.

Felix Kramer, who founded CalCars.org to promote plug-in hybrids, is optimistic. “In spite of press reports of disappointing sales, we don’t hear about unsold cars stuck on dealer lots or buyers’ remorse. We do hear current and prospective owners talking about the features they want in the next cars that come to market.” He points out that Ford, Honda, Toyota, Mitsubishi, BMW, and most other carmakers will be rolling out new EV models over the next two years.

I think we created too much hype and conversation about EVs and plug-in hybrids,’ an analyst says.

America who doubles as a Leaf salesman in the Los Angeles area, says electric cars are doing great. “Instead of a few hundred EV drivers, we now have almost 20,000. A high percentage of these are vocal advocates of the technology... As long as the external costs of dirty energy are not in the price, we’ll be at a disadvantage, but the gap will close eventually, one way or the other, and EVs will dominate in every way.”

But clearly, there were unreasonable expectations for electric car liftoff. “I think we, particularly the government, created too much hype and conversation about both pure EVs and plug-in hybrids,” David Cole, chairman emeritus of the Center for Automotive Research in Michigan, told me. “The fact is that the economics are not here yet... The problem was that they invested in commercialization before it was ready for prime time. The fact is that just because you want something to happen doesn’t make it happen.”

The U.S. Advanced Battery Consortium has set a cost goal of $250 per kilowatt-hour stored, but many packs today come in at three times that. A $7,500 federal income tax credit (and some state subsidies) helps take the sting out of high prices, but the cars (which currently start at more than $30,000) are still expensive.

Does this mean that EVs are doomed? Not at all, but it does mean that early numbers are likely to be relatively low. Cole is siding with many in Detroit when he says that plug-in hybrid technology (which, as in the Volt,

Some predict that battery pack costs will be cut in half within five years.

combines an electric motor and batteries with a gas engine acting as a generator) “will be the long-term winner” because it solves the “range anxiety” issue presented by battery cars that travel 100 miles on a charge. Even with that advantage, however, GM’s sales goal of 45,000 for the Volt in 2012 may be overly optimistic. “I want some of whatever they’re smoking,” said Eric Evarts, associate autos editor at Consumer Reports.

But cars running solely on batteries will get cheaper and offer increased range. Automakers are pouring billions into battery research, and some predict that pack costs will be cut in half within five years. “All of the manufacturers are working very hard on the technology, as they should, so they are prepared when the economics work to launch product in high volume,” Cole said.

Bob Lutz, who famously dismissed global warming as “a crock of [expletive]” when he was vice chairman of General Motors, nevertheless earned the title “Father of the Chevrolet Volt” for shepherding the car to production. Lutz told me that, by 2025, 20 to 25 percent of new car sales will be hybrid, plug-in hybrid, or battery electric “merely because of government regulations — by 2025, American auto fleets will have to achieve 54.5 mpg.” And he added that European regulations are similarly

One report finds electric vehicles will have a penetration of 26 percent in the global market by 2020.

demanding. “No one knows how to meet these regulations without massive hybridization and electrification,” he said. In the film Revenge of the Electric Car, Lutz says that “the electrification of the automobile is inevitable.”

Aside from government regulation, other factors likely to boost plug-in cars are the quest for energy independence — since electricity, especially when it’s generated from renewable fuels, is domestic — and state efforts, especially in California, to combat global warming and cut local pollution from tailpipes.

Lutz’ predictions are in line with the industry and the analysts who follow it. According to the Boston Consulting Group in a 2010 report, all forms of electrics will have “a likely overall penetration of 26 percent” in the global market by 2020. And that explains why — despite the slow sales — the stands at the Detroit Auto Show, both foreign and domestic, were crowded with electric cars and plug-in hybrids. “For the next 20 years, the internal-combustion engine will be the leading powertrain, but increasingly the electric cars will dominate,” I was told by Peter Marks, then the CEO of major auto supplier Bosch. “My grandchildren will drive electric cars, I’m convinced of it. It’s inevitable that cars will become electric.”

The pace of EV adoption in Europe and China — which has the potential to develop a market far outstripping that of the U.S.— has also been slow in the early days, despite subsidies that in some cases dwarf those in the U.S. John Gartner, an auto analyst with Pike Research, attributes the sluggish sales pace around the world to “a combination of the automakers making the vehicles available later than intended, the twin natural disasters in Japan, and the sluggish global economy.”

According to a survey from JATO Dynamics, by last September only 5,222 EVs were registered in Europe, with Germany (1,020 cars) in the lead,

China now has 55 companies building electric vehicles or launching development programs.

despite the lowest subsidy ($491) on the continent. Denmark, with very lucrative $26,000 tax credits possible on EVs, registered only 283 of them in the first half of 2011. JATO concluded that perks associated with EVs — such as free city-center parking in Oslo, Norway and access to bus lanes —mattered more than price as a determining factor. In Norway, despite lower subsidies, EV sales were three times those of Denmark.

But price is still a problem for many European buyers, despite the EV’s significantly lower operating costs. Even with a $7,700 government subsidy, the Leaf in Great Britain (where it costs $44,000) is $10,900 more than the very fuel-efficient VW Golf Bluemotion. The Leaf is 10 cents a mile cheaper to run, but it takes a lot of dimes to total $10,900.

Pike Research predicts that China, with the world’s largest auto market, will also have the leading EV market by 2015. China, with 150 automakers, has no less than 55 companies now building electrified vehicles or launching development programs. Some EV builders, such as BYD (with a 10 percent investment by financier Warren Buffett), are also major battery makers. Chinese government subsidies are among the most generous in the world. In five major cities, consumers can tap into $9,474 in rebates (paid to automakers rather than car buyers) for battery electrics and $7,895 for plug-in hybrids. Pike’s Gartner, who calls China’s electric sales so far “disappointing,” also points out that, beginning January 1, all electrified vehicles were exempted from vehicle usage taxes, “which is likely to boost sales there.”

China set a government goal of enabling production of 500,000 electric cars and buses a year by the end of 2011, but its actual rollout is at this point considerably smaller, only a few thousand annually. BYD’s plan to start selling electric cars in the U.S. has stalled. A China Business News count identified only 10 registered electric cars in Shanghai (which has 23 million people) last fall, and 25 in Hangzhou.

Electric cars are finally coming to market in the U.S., but what is the future potential for this much-touted technology? A good way to find out would be to launch demonstration projects in selected U.S. cities to determine if the public will truly embrace plug-in vehicles.READ MORE

But Chinese central planning could dictate that the industry will ramp up quickly. Prime Minister Wen Jiabao has called for a new “road map” for green cars, and the EV effort is heavily supported by China’s state-run electric companies. As the New York Times reported, “With China expected to surpass the United States in the number of all vehicles on the road by as early as 2020, the government-run utilities see it as their job to provide an alternative to imported oil as a way to power several hundred million cars, trucks, and buses.”

China is a sleeping giant when it comes to electric cars, and that’s a pretty good analogy for the rest of the global industry, too. If you judge by the cars on the road today, EVs aren’t impressive — but it’s the potential just around the corner that has gotten automakers and governments excited. Consumers aren’t yet on board in large numbers, but if the cars continue to improve and get cheaper, they will be.

COMMENTS

"Since the Obama administration offered subsidies to ease the EVs way forward, the early sales performance became the target of political attacks,"

The subsidies were put in place by the Bush administration. The Obama administration was attacked because that's just what the conservatives and the media seem to do in this country.

Posted by
Buzz
on 26 Jan 2012

Federal and state governments give electric car owners tax breaks and credits to buy their vehicles as well as special freeway lanes even though there’s no evidence they’ve done anything positive for the environment in return. In fact, the mining, heavy metals, and other side effects of electric car production and operation are likely worse for the environment when compared to traditional gasoline-powered vehicles, and will be for some time, at least according to a National Academies report.

Electric vehicle subsidies act to reinforce the suburban sprawl model and the car-culture that accompanies it. Electric vehicles are hardly worthy of environmental praise when bicycling, walking and transit are the real solutions.

-- Ozzie Zehner, author of Green Illusions

Posted by
Ozzie Zehner
on 26 Jan 2012

One million electric cars will require about 55 million more pounds of copper than the same number of standard vehicles. Care to do the math for how much copper will be needed for a quarter of the Earth's cars? I'm not against EV's, but folks can't keep taking the candy that allows them to protest mining, while simultaneously agitating for green vehicles!

Posted by
Greg Durocher
on 26 Jan 2012

Are the comments aimed at shooting down electric cars based on fantasy? Let's simplify Greg's claim of 55 million more pounds of copper for a million EVs... 55 pounds per car. Total world production of copper is presently 15 million TONS per year. That is 30,000,000,000 (30 billion pounds per YEAR). Presently total world production of EVs is less than 100,000 vehicles per year... taking the 55 pounds as true that means those vehicles are using a whopping 0.00018% of the annual copper produced over the same number of gas cars. Under this premise, we need to stop using up our copper for computers and other modern devices or else... what or else what? Copper is recycled at a level exceeding 80%.

This premise is almost as bad as the one that electric cars just change burning fossil fuels in
the tank to at the dirty power plant. That argument ignores that it takes a lot more electricity from those same power plants to make a gallon of gasoline (about 8KW hours) than is takes to propel an electric car the same distance as a gas car that burns that gallon of gas making another layer of pollution.

EV vehicles do not encourage urban sprawl. Range issues encourage ownership by those that live close to work/shopping etc. My NEV works perfect for my 3 mile commute (yeah, I could bike it and do weather permitting) and my chores around town that rarely mean traveling over 15 miles in a day. Hybrids continue the ability to sustain sprawl... affordable pure EV cars don't.

Posted by
Scott McElhiney
on 26 Jan 2012

From my quote in the article, "As long as the external costs of dirty energy are not in the price, we’ll be at a disadvantage... "

And then from David Cole, chairman emeritus of the Center for Automotive Research in Michigan, “The fact is that the economics are not here yet... The problem was that they invested in commercialization before it was ready for prime time."

Clearly, the easiest solution is to internalize the externalities of dirty oil, and I insist that these
include all the military, health and environmental costs. Unless or until this is done, we're fighting a tough battle. There are carrots and sticks, the carrots are plentiful with the $7,500 federal tax credit and various state incentives, but the sticks are no where to be found. Make those who use oil pay the full cost and then the market will take care of the rest.

Posted by
Paul Scott
on 27 Jan 2012

Ozzie Zehner's comment on EVs that "there’s no evidence they’ve done anything positive for the environment... " is absurd. We sold close to 20,000 EVs last year in the U.S. and none of those cars emits pollution when running on electricity. If that's not doing something for the environment, I'd like to know how Mr. Zehner defines the term.

I have been driving an EV for over 9 years and powering it, and my house, on solar energy. For 101,000 miles, I've been driving 100 percent pollution-free. I personally know a few hundred people doing the same thing. A recent study found that 30% of LEAF buyers were using solar energy to power their homes and cars. Many of the rest are signed up with their utility's renewable energy program, so they were using wind, solar and geothermal to run their homes and cars. This means their driving is 100 percent pollution-free "well-to-wheels."

I can only surmise that Mr. Zehner does not power his home with renewable energy and therefore thinks running an EV on the grid mix his utility provides is equally as dirty as an internal combustion car. If he were to read the list of over 40 studies that have researched the pollution generated from EVs and ICE on a well-to-wheel basis, he'd know that EVs are always cleaner than gas cars even when coal makes up to 90 percent of the local grid mix.

http://images.pluginamerica.org/EmissionsSummary.pdf

If my assumption that Mr. Zehner does not power his home with renewable electricity is correct, then I question his credibility to write a book called "Green Illusions".

Posted by
Paul Scott
on 27 Jan 2012

The electric car is a step backward.

There is no surprise that they are advocated by a global warming denier.

To produce electricity you waste 50 percent of the total energy in heat. This is why electric cars are worse than today's car, this without including material issue (mining and so on).

Electric car, just like biofuel is one more PR trick to sustain business as usual. But it even for business as usual, it is meant to fail: no energy source, especially the "super clean super safe" nuclear energy will ever be able to scale up to meet the needs as oil is getting more expensive.

So forget about cars, buy a good bike.

Posted by
kervennic
on 28 Jan 2012

EVs are great in theory but at moment they're largely fossil/nuclear vehicles: built by fossil/nuclear baseload power throughout supply chains and factories, and dependent largely on fossil/nuclear baseload for re-charging. US power system, eg, is around 80% fossil. You cannot scale enough wind and power--i wish we could--and, eg, build it next to the factories that are building EVs

Posted by
Spencer Swartz
on 31 Jan 2012

"Only the Super-Rich Can Save Us!" is the title of Ralph Nader's latest book. And he's right. They're doing it by becoming first adopters and spending their wealth on electric cars like the Tesla, absorbing the cost of R&D which will ultimately, hopefully, make EVs one day affordable for the rest of us. There is no technical reason why the economics of scale can't bring the cost of the Tesla Roadster down to a mere $20.000 within the next few years, then we can all zip around from 0 to 60 in under 4 seconds and play bumper cars.

Posted by
Remy Chevalier
on 31 Jan 2012

I just shared this article, thanks for posting!

Posted by
Abogados Peru
on 14 Feb 2012

nice share

Posted by
Rickcase Mitsubishi
on 17 Feb 2012

I don't know the answer but that's why they are making hybrid cars now same difference but it just uses water.. That's smart it will keep the air clean and cheap on fuel.

Posted by
Jonas
on 18 Feb 2012

Automakers have yet to produce a green car that is not a weeniemobile. They're flimsy, fragile, black-boxed machines that scream "I'm a nerd!" The current crop of cars is designed for and by committees of car-haters, and it shows.

Want electric technology to take off? Build stripped-down, infinitely modifiable cars aimed at gearheads. Sell a raw platform, not a "here's how you'll take it, and you'll like it" finished product. Establish a set of open standards, then stand back and let the maker/hacker/gearhead community do the final engineering. The market will ignite if it's done right, providing attractive options to the millions of people who find the current offerings repulsive.

Or continue pursuing the path of righteous dogma, and remain puzzled about why the market is so sluggish.

Posted by
Scott McCullough
on 20 Feb 2012

I hope we see the day when electric cars rule the day. I know it's coming...I mean 'we' as in people living today!

We just wrote a story about the factors involved in driving to work, and how much more sense it makes to live near work. That's when electric cars would make the most sense.

ABOUT THE AUTHORJim Motavalli is a contributor to the New York Times, Car Talk on National Public Radio, Mother Nature Network and PlugInCars.com. His most recent book is High Voltage: The Fast Track to Plug in the Auto Industry (Rodale). In a previous article for Yale Environment 360, he wrote about efforts to build a network of charging stations for electric vehicles.MORE BY THIS AUTHOR

In a Troubled African Park, A Battle Over Oil Exploration Congo's Virunga National Park has long been known for its mountain gorillas and for the lawless militias that operate there. But the recent shooting of the park warden and plans to begin oil exploration in the park have sparked concern about the future of this iconic World Heritage Site. READ MORE

De-Extinction Debate: Should We Bring Back the Woolly Mammoth? A group led by futurist Stewart Brand is spearheading a movement to try to use genetic technology to revive extinct species, such as the woolly mammoth and the passenger pigeon. In a Yale Environment 360 debate, Brand makes the case for trying to bring back long-gone species, while biologist Paul R. Ehrlich argues that the idea is ill conceived and morally wrong. READ MORE

Designing Wetlands to Remove Drugs and Chemical Pollutants by carina storrsDrinking water supplies around the world often contain trace amounts of pharmaceuticals and synthetic compounds that may be harmful to human health. One solution being tried in the U.S. and Europe is to construct man-made wetlands that naturally degrade these contaminants.READ MORE

On the River Nile, a Move to Avert a Conflict Over Water by fred pearceEthiopia’s plans to build Africa’s largest hydroelectric dam on the Nile have sparked tensions with Egypt, which depends on the river to irrigate its arid land. But after years of tensions, an international agreement to share the Nile’s waters may be in sight.READ MORE

Perennial Rice: In Search of a Greener, Hardier Staple Crop by winifred birdScientists have long sought to create a perennial rice that would avoid the damage to the land caused by the necessity of planting annually. Now, Chinese researchers appear close to developing this new breed of rice, an achievement that could have major environmental benefits.
READ MORE

In Kenya’s Mountain Forests, A New Path to Conservationby fred pearceKenya’s high-elevation forests are the source for most of the water on which the drought-plagued nation depends. Now, after decades of government-abetted abuse of these regions, a new conservation strategy of working with local communities is showing signs of success.READ MORE

Will New Obstacles Dim Hawaii’s Solar Power Surge?by erica giesBlessed with lots of sun and keen to cut its reliance on imported oil, Hawaii has moved to the forefront of residential solar installations in the U.S. But financial and technical hurdles are slowing the state’s drive to generate 40 percent of its electricity from renewable energy by 2030.READ MORE

Agricultural Movement Tackles Challenges of a Warming Worldby lisa palmerWith temperatures rising and extreme weather becoming more frequent, the “climate-smart agriculture” campaign is using a host of measures — from new planting practices to improved water management — to keep farmers ahead of the disruptive impacts of climate change.READ MORE

Natural Gas Boom Brings Major Growth for U.S. Chemical Plantsby rachel cernanskyThe surge in U.S. production of shale gas is leading to the rapid expansion of chemical and manufacturing plants that use the gas as feedstock. But environmentalists worry these new facilities will bring further harm to industrialized regions already bearing a heavy pollution burden.READ MORE

How Technology Is Protecting World’s Richest Marine Reserveby christopher palaAfter years of fitful starts, the Pacific island nation of Kiribati this month banned all commercial fishing inside its huge marine reserve. New satellite transponder technology is now helping ensure that the ban succeeds in keeping out the big fishing fleets.READ MORE

e360 MOBILE

e360 VIDEO

The Warriors of Qiugang, a Yale Environment 360 video, chronicles a Chinese village’s fight against a polluting chemical plant. It was nominated for a 2011 Academy Award for Best Documentary Short.
Watch the video.