Wednesday, October 21, 2015

Cut Off Prediction - Four Races In

Steamtown's results were nearly identical to last year, just slightly down. Unlike the other three races which had qualification numbers/rates that were down, overall. Even though Steamtown is one of the smallest top 25 feeders, it actually had more impact that I was expecting (likely due to the fact that the performances were on par with 2014 vs the downtrend of the others).

Age Group Totals:

AG

2014 Qualifiers

2014 AG Total

% Qualifiers

2015 Qualifiers

2015 AG Total

% Qualifiers

F18-34

466

4722

9.87%

425

4370

9.73%

F35-39

264

2001

13.19%

255

1841

13.85%

F40-44

224

1645

13.62%

206

1501

13.72%

F45-49

212

1111

19.08%

210

1075

19.53%

F50-54

112

748

14.97%

136

722

18.84%

F55-59

68

438

15.53%

65

396

16.41%

F60-64

37

188

19.68%

27

189

14.29%

F65-69

13

59

22.03%

14

78

17.95%

F70-74

3

20

15.00%

2

23

8.70%

F75-79

0

8

0.00%

0

6

0.00%

F80+

0

0

0.00%

0

1

0.00%

M18-34

355

3967

8.95%

285

3654

7.80%

M35-39

182

1877

9.70%

188

1870

10.05%

M40-44

180

1814

9.92%

175

1783

9.81%

M45-49

251

1559

16.10%

210

1423

14.76%

M50-54

205

1258

16.30%

191

1196

15.97%

M55-59

146

890

16.40%

130

871

14.93%

M60-64

98

483

20.29%

85

486

17.49%

M65-59

13

75

17.33%

8

80

10.00%

M65-69

32

143

22.38%

28

129

21.71%

M70-74

22

102

21.57%

9

84

10.71%

M75-79

3

25

12.00%

7

29

24.14%

M80+

0

5

0.00%

1

10

10.00%

Totals

2886

23138

12.47%

2657

21817

12.18%

So, as you can see, we are a bit down overall in both finishers and qualifiers. Down 1321 qualifiers so far, which is 5.7% of last year's total.

Here are the margin totals, year over year:

Margin

2014

Percentage

2015

Percentage

<1 minute

181

6.27%

140

5.27%

1-2 minutes

165

5.72%

148

5.57%

2-3 minutes

171

5.93%

133

5.01%

3-4 minutes

144

4.99%

167

6.29%

4-5 minutes

147

5.09%

105

3.95%

5-10 minutes

630

21.83%

541

20.36%

10-20 minutes

736

25.50%

716

26.95%

20> minutes

712

24.67%

707

26.61%

Totals

2886

2657

The Squeaker Pack (under 5 minutes) is 26.1% in 2015 vs 2014, it was 28%. So we are still seeing a shift to more runners with qualification of 5 minutes or more.

For the 2014 race results compiled, the number of runners with the 2016 cutoff margin of 147 was 2457.

Taking the 2015 qualifirs, sorting qualifiers by margin descending, the 2457th runner has a margin of...

81 seconds or 1:21

Initially I was surprised by this, but then again, Steamtown performances were similar to last year (and we saw how big the cut was for 2016), so it makes sense that we are seeing a bump up of 11 seconds to the cutoff prediction.

We'll see how Chicago affects the numbers - it was warmer than normal and that could be a factor.