and yes topps does have to insure collation, not just legally but due to contracts

but none of that matters

point is if you open any amount of cards you know how it works... i hit 10-16 of every mini INCLUDING the SP 301-350, no strasburg

it's fine though, nothing i can do

It would be interesting if we could find out how many cases total of the product were sent out, with approx 3 weeks to design/print/insert/pack out the strasburg rookie in A&G it just seems like a very short period of time, I would assume when they were announcing the introduction of this new card, some cases..if not quite a good chunk of the cases were already packed out. Hell if they make 5,000 cases of this stuff, the first 100-200 cases of it printed only accounts for 2% of the total run, which in numbers terms is very small in their minds. In ours it sucks if this really did happen.

No, not sue. But customer service is important. I'm the EVP for a major sports incentive firm -- customer service is what distinguishes us. We take 500+ people to the Super Bowl and about the same to the Masters each year. We deal with over 150 of the Fortune 500 companies.... if I did this to one of my valued clients, and at least didn't try and make it right, I'd not only lose the contract, but other clients would hear about it... and start to get notions in their mind about my level of service and my integrity.

To wit, just look at what has happened to Upper Deck. For almost two decades they were the STANDARD in high end collecting and service...

No, not sue. But customer service is important. I'm the EVP for a major sports incentive firm -- customer service is what distinguishes us. We take 500+ people to the Super Bowl and about the same to the Masters each year. We deal with over 150 of the Fortune 500 companies.... if I did this to one of my valued clients, and at least didn't try and make it right, I'd not only lose the contract, but other clients would hear about it... and start to get notions in their mind about my level of service and my integrity.

To wit, just look at what has happened to Upper Deck. For almost two decades they were the STANDARD in high end collecting and service...

I still keep going back to Brents comment to topps on Twitter "bumped up to 25 cases of Allen & ginter. Never thought I'd go more than 20 but u got me this time. Lol" sadly they did get you Brent...and it sucks!

after reading this it does appear that way..makes me not want any part of A & G, after breaking 4 boxes from early shipment with no stras of course ,and being in a blowout case break tonight, doesn't give me much hope (even though I dont have nationals tonight) LCS just got his shipment in..ugh....almost makes me want to try my luck with the later shipments....

after reading this it does appear that way..makes me not want any part of A & G, after breaking 4 boxes from early shipment with no stras of course ,and being in a blowout case break tonight, doesn't give me much hope (even though I dont have nationals tonight) LCS just got his shipment in..ugh....almost makes me want to try my luck with the later shipments....

Just keep in mind, short printed or not, Its still at best a 1 per 3-4 case hit. LCS that is direct with Topps looks like the place to go if you want a shot at hitting one. But even then, its going to be tough to hit. And thats with it NOT being short printed.

Just keep in mind, short printed or not, Its still at best a 1 per 3-4 case hit. LCS that is direct with Topps looks like the place to go if you want a shot at hitting one. But even then, its going to be tough to hit. And thats with it NOT being short printed.

If Brent got 10 sets (and some extras) out of 25 cases, then it's more like a 1Strasburg per 2 to 2.5 case hit if it was seeding normally. I'm thinking just from the big case breakers and other folks who get it early, there are probably at least 500 hobby cases broken already so there should be about 200 Strasburgs. Since those case breakers and group breakers usually sell everything of value, I would've expected at least 150 of the 200 to hit the bay or be heard from on some forum. I've been on all the major card forums and my guess is that there's about 25-30 out there right now. We'll know for sure by Monday because the local card shops will get there's yesterday and today in most cases but there better be hundreds and hundreds listed this weekend or the bull$hit most people are smelling will be vindicated. What I smell is a rat (Topps) who either doesn't know what the heck they're doing or, more likely, thinks we're really stupid and I don't like either scenario. And for those who say nothing's guaranteed and they don't have to tell us anything, that would have been ok if they hadn't opened their mouth at all but they did on Twitter in personal e-mails etc.. The only true statement I've heard from them was the first one - "Strasburg is in Allen & Ginter". Everything since has been shady half-truths and outright lies. I always wondered what happened to the people laid off from Upper Deck and now i know where they went.

Always looking to buy Game Used or Autographs for $1-$2 each!
Do you know anyone that has 2011 Topps Gypsy Queen Queens Autographs #12, #15, or
2012 Topps Gypsy Queen Kings Autographs? I am building these sets!

I'm seeing about 3 or 4 listed every day and that's nothing for the volume of stuff opened since Thursday. It would be nice if they came out with a new statement with the truth (seems like they weren't in the LCS cases either in any real numbers) but I guess I rather have them be silent than lie again. They could be virtually all in retail but if that's the case, that would really suck for the people who crack hobby and would be against their LCS "initiative" that may or may not exist.

i guess the first thing to decide is how many independent randon variables there are........ but i think that a simple gamma distribution might be enough to get a good enough picture that shows how the Stras' aren't evenly distributed.

Quote:

Originally Posted by topherkris1

Fun with numbers:
If Stras is once every 3 cases, you're odds of not pulling one in any particular case are 66%.

i guess the first thing to decide is how many independent randon variables there are........ but i think that a simple gamma distribution might be enough to get a good enough picture that shows how the Stras' aren't evenly distributed.

Usually within the first two weeks, you'll see about 1/3rd - 1/2 of the entire print run of any given card. Based on the recent Strasburg-Mania, it's fair to assume that this product is being opened at a hasty rate and people are listing them rather than holding them.

There's a margin of error of about 25-30 cards but based on early returns, this card is numbered to about 100 (with a high-end of about 150). Obviously that has no baring on distribution and whether or not it was in LCS/DIST cases.

If there are 4200 cases of this stuff, a Strasburg should fall right about once every 42 cases which makes your "lack of luck" not all that unlucky at all.

Even the Hundred cases that you've seen without a strasburg still isn't a statistical anomaly -- it's just bad luck. At that point, you're pretty much looking at a little over 40% shot of pulling a Strasburg.

basically you only get 5 or 6 regular mini's per box including sps 301-350.
so you are only getting 60-70 regular minis per case. that makes 5 or 6 cases to make a set therefore producing a Strasburg around 1 in 5-6 cases.

i have actually seen 3-4 base minis and 2 sp minis (301-350) come out of most boxes. if this is the case, then you would be only getting 36-48 base minis per case, taking more like 7-8 cases to make a set and therefore 1 Strasburg in every 7-8 cases which seems more likely.

basically you only get 5 or 6 regular mini's per box including sps 301-350.
so you are only getting 60-70 regular minis per case. that makes 5 or 6 cases to make a set therefore producing a Strasburg around 1 in 5-6 cases.

i have actually seen 3-4 base minis and 2 sp minis (301-350) come out of most boxes. if this is the case, then you would be only getting 36-48 base minis per case, taking more like 7-8 cases to make a set and therefore 1 Strasburg in every 7-8 cases which seems more likely.

just my observations from my boxes and boxes from my LCS.

I don't know the exact numbers and obviously couldn't do precise math until I did, but anytime you get 15? sets of the Mini-set yet are missing one card, something is up.

You don't even need the box odds to know that we're not dealing with random collation.