But USDJPY recovered some ground after Dow bounced back dramatically on hopes of Fed hikes pause after Dec:

USDJPY recovered to some extent in late hour trade Thursday and early Friday as Dow bounced back dramatically from almost -800 points plunge to close marginally lower by around -80 points on hopes of Fed hikes pause after December. Dow recovered from a deep slump after Fed’s Bostic said that the Fed is “within shouting distance” of neutral rates.

On late Thursday, Dow accelerated more after another report suggested that restrained (subdued) inflation reduces Fed's urgency for quarterly rate-increase pattern from 2019 (as it approaching its mean neutral target of 3.00%).

As per the report: “Fed officials are considering whether to signal a new wait-and-see (watch) mentality after a likely interest-rate increase at their meeting in December, which could slow down the pace of rate increases next year. FOMC officials still think the broad direction of short-term interest rates will be higher in 2019, according to recent interviews and public statements. But as they push up their benchmark, they are becoming less sure how fast they will need to act or how far they will need to go and want to assess how the economy is holding up under moves they’ve already made”.

Talking about growing US-China cold war tensions, the arrest of the Huawei CFO is on the allegation that Huawei violated the US sanctions against Iran by selling telecommunications equipment and actively engaged in suspicious transactions with Iran linked entities through HSBC. There is a report alleging closer ties to between Huawei and a company that sold HP equipment in Iran. As a reminder, Huawei has frequently been the focus of US intelligence for trying to gain access to the 5G network. The company is the world's 2nd-largest maker of telecommunications equipment.

The arrest of Meng, a daughter of the company’s founder, is likely to escalate tensions between the US and China over technology and trade truce issues, just as the two countries appeared to have reached a trade ceasefire.

Now, if the US decides to prosecute Meng further rather than releasing her, the issue could be a serious blow in US-China diplomatic as-well-as trade relation as Huawei is a strategically important tech company for China and Meng is the face of the company, an influential figure in China and also the would be CEO. For Trump, even if he is “sympathetic” for the Chinese cause for greater “national interest” of a trade truce, it will be difficult for him to interfere in the US judicial system.

As Huawei has been widely recognized as one of the most successful technology companies in China, the arrest of its popular CFO may push Chinese leadership into an awkward political position back home. Public opinion in China will likely become more negative with respect to the trade war, and potentially against US companies. The Chinese government may find it difficult to tell the public that they have offered significant concessions to the US.

The US-China trade talk has just been resumed at the G20 meeting, but now the prospect of reaching a trade deal by 1st March’2019 (90-days from 1st Dec’2018) is also looking difficult and the US business interests in China could also face a higher risk than earlier.

It’s also very strange about Trump’s silence on the issue despite that fact that the arrest occurred on the same day with his dinner meeting with China’s president Xi. For a country like Canada, It's extremely rare to arrest and extradite someone for something like an allegation of violation of US sanctions. In Canada, the extradition is generally reserved for drug dealers and terrorists. Canada extradites about 100 people a year on the request of foreign countries; so this is also extremely unusual for Canada.

The Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said his government had "a few days advanced notice" that the Chinese executive would be arrested. He added that the arrest was carried out without political considerations - but ducked a question about why Canada has continued to use Huawei products despite warnings from the US about their susceptibility to infiltration by the Chinese government.

Trudeau said: "We are a country of an independent judiciary and the appropriate authorities took the decisions in this case without any political involvement or interference. We were advised by them with a few days’ notices that this was in the works”.

As per the report, the WH national Security Advisor Bolton, who was also present in the Trump-Xi dinner meeting, said he had been aware of the Huawei CFO arrest on last Saturday (1st Dec), though he said he didn't know if Trump had been informed ahead of time. The White House later denied that Trump has any prior knowledge of the arrest incident. But such high profile Chinese CFO arrest was not possible without Trump’s personal knowledge and approval, although he may point out that the US judicial system is free of any political interference, even by a sitting President.

But the fact that Bolton was aware of the Huawei CFO arrest, will convince Xi that Trump has also knowledge of the same when he sat down with Xi for the dinner diplomacy. This would likely anger the Chinese leader Xi and there will be a sense of trust deficit in all future trade negotiations.

As per the report, the White House officials knew about Meng's impending arrest ahead of time - though it's still unclear what President Trump knew and when. China will think that it was done deliberately and that the whole thing is extralegal and it’s part of US policy or the hidden agenda of “cold war” with China to prevent it to become another “global superpower”.

China has been outraged by Meng's arrest and said “neither the US nor Canadian authorities had clarified their reasoning for arresting Meng. Beijing will ask the US and Canada to release her. And detaining such prominent executive risks being interpreted as a direct attack by Beijing. Detaining the person involved with no explicit reason certainly harms her human rights. In addition, neither the US nor Canada has made any clarification on the reason for the detention so far”.

As per Canada’s DOJ, a bail hearing for Meng is set for Friday; however, any extradition requests between Canada and the US are virtually automatic - unless a suspect faces the possibility of the death penalty (which is not applicable in Meng's case).

Amid all these US-China cold/trade war narrative, subsequent plunge in US stocks and risk-aversion flow to the safety of bonds, the US bond yield tumbled The benchmark 10Y US bond yield plunged below 2.85%, while the 2Y yield also stumbled below 2.70%.

Although, the bond yield spread between 10s and 2s has steepened to around +15 bps from +10 bps a few days ago, the market is now even dialing back the probability of the December rate hike from 80% to below 70%, considering the stock market plunge, recent spate of subdued economic data, specially US core PCE inflation at +1.8% and increasing concern of an economic slowdown as bond yield on the verge of an imminent inversion.

Subsequently, USD doomed, although it’s now almost certain that the Fed is going to hike on 19th Dec. Overall, rising interest rates/borrowing costs, muted business investment/private capex and ongoing trade tensions with China have sparked fresh worries about an economic slowdown in the coming days.

Meanwhile, Fed’s Beige book released late Wednesday shows the US economy is still solid and workers are gaining greater bargaining power for their wage growth. Most of the Fed’s 12 districts saw modest to moderate growth from mid-October through late November. Overall, Fed’s November Beige book is upbeat in general but also noted some headwinds.

On the positive side, consumer spending is solid, tourism surging, and Trump tariffs not affected the US manufacturing sector until now in a big way. On the negative side, new home construction and existing home sales are subdued and Trump tariffs, meanwhile, have affected the US agricultural sector (as China boycotted US soybeans) coupled with an excessive rainfall this year.

Summary of Fed’s November Beige Book:

Overall Economic Activity:

“Most of the twelve Federal Reserve Districts reported that their economies expanded at a modest or moderate pace from mid-October through late November, though both Dallas and Philadelphia noted slower growth compared with the prior Beige Book period. St. Louis and Kansas City noted just slight growth. On balance, consumer spending held steady – District reports on the growth of non-auto retail sales appeared somewhat weaker while auto sales tended to improve, particularly for used cars. Tourism reports varied but generally kept pace with the economy”.

“Tariffs remained a concern for manufacturers, but a majority of Districts continued to report moderate growth in the sector. All Districts reported growth in nonfinancial services – ranging from slight to strong. New home construction and existing home sales tended to decline or hold steady, while construction and leasing of nonresidential structures tended to rise or remain flat”.

“Overall, lending volumes grew modestly, although a few Districts noted some slowing. Agricultural conditions and farm incomes were mixed; some Districts noted impacts from excessive rainfall and from tariffs, which have constrained demand. Most energy sectors saw little change or modest growth. Most Districts reported that firms remained positive; however, optimism has waned in some as contacts cited increased uncertainty from impacts of tariffs, rising interest rates, and labor market constraints.

Employment and Wages:

As per the Fed’s Beige Book, the US Labor markets tightened:

“Labor markets tightened further across a broad range of occupations. Over half of the Districts cited firms for which employment, production, and sometimes capacity expansion had been constrained by an inability to attract and retain qualified workers. In fact, several Chicago firms reported that some employees have simply quit – with no notice, nor means of contact”.

“Partly as a consequence of labor shortages, most Districts reported that employment growth leaned to the slower side of a modest to moderate pace. Conversely, most Districts reported that wage growth tended to the higher side of a modest to moderate pace. In addition to raising wages, most Districts noted examples of firms enhancing nonwage benefits, including health benefits, profit-sharing, bonuses, and paid vacation days”.

Prices:

On prices (inflation), Beige book is quite dovish more generally, and it suggests of narrowing margins, as input costs rose faster than final goods prices; i.e. the manufacturers still lack pricing power, negative for US inflation.

“On balance, prices rose at a modest pace in most Districts, although a few noted moderate increases. Nearly all reported that input costs rose faster than final goods prices. Reports of tariff-induced cost increases have spread more broadly from manufacturers and contractors to retailers and restaurants. Local growing conditions caused prices to vary across farm products and among Districts, but reported soybean prices were typically lower. Several Districts noted falling oil and fuel prices, as well as rising freight costs. House prices continued to rise in a majority of markets”.

Overall the Fed’s November Beige Book is consistent with expectations that the Fed will go for gradual rate hikes in 2019 too.

Talking about whether the Fed will go for gradual rate hikes in 2019, Fed’s Williams the so-called “neutral guru” and one of the most influential FOMC policymakers sounds quite hawkish on Tuesdayas he said strong US economic outlook for 2019 warrants for continued gradual rate hikes and he doesn’t expect economy to overheat, while expressing expressed no concern that market participants have dialed back expectations for further gradual hikes in 2019 to only one against Fed’s latest dot-plots of three after Powell’s “just below” neutral (range) comments last week.

On Tuesday, the NY Fed President Williams said: “The U. economy will stay strong in 2019 and inflation will tick up above 2% and so the US central bank should continue to raise interest rates gradually. Given this outlook of strong growth, strong labor market and inflation near our goal and taking account all the various risks around the outlook, I do expect further gradual increases in interest rates will best sponsor a sustained economic expansion. The Fed’s last policy statement used the word ‘strong’ five times in describing the US economy and it accurately represents where we are”.

Williams added: “The US growth will slow in 2019, but only a bit, to a 2.5% annual rate from near 3% this year as the Trump tax cut will continue to provide a ‘tailwind’ to activity. We expect the unemployment rate to edge slightly below 3.5% rate over the next year. The US Inflation will move only a little above the Fed’s 2% target, but importantly I don’t see any sign of greater inflationary pressures on the horizon”.

Williams said: “I am alert to signs that the economy may slow faster than one expects, but my baseline forecast is still very positive, although there are risks on the horizon. But then, not all risks are on the downside. There was a 50% chance that the economy performs faster, inflation picks up at a little bit than we expect and I think we’re positioned to adjust to that. The Fed is in a good place to react to whatever the economic news is and we’re well-positioned to adjust our path of interest rates if the economic data disappoint”.

Williams added: “My own view is -- I think completely consistent with what Chairman Powell said -- is that the US economy is strong, but there are definitely some risks on the horizon. I expect with the economy continuing to grow nicely above-trend, we’ll see further job gains, further declines in the unemployment rate, and unemployment will edge slightly below 3.5% over the next year or so. I do continue to expect that further gradual increases in interest rates will best foster a sustained economic expansion and sustained achievement of our dual mandate goals”.

Williams explained that going forward, gradual hikes forward guidance by the Fed will be less predictable: “As the economy improves, the Fed will need to reconsider how much guidance it’s providing. The central bank will get to a situation where it’s not as obvious that we are going to be raising interest rates at a gradual pace over time. Then it will be appropriate to further step back on how much explicit forward guidance we give in statements. But the dot plot and press conferences will continue to provide a transparent and comprehensive view of the Fed’s outlook”.

On US unemployment and inflation, Williams clarified: “One open question is how low unemployment can remain without stoking hotter inflation. Unemployment is currently at 3.7%, well under the 4.5% that Fed officials have penciled in as the long-run sustainable rate. Right now I think we’re in a great position to allow the unemployment rate to be below 4% for the next few years without really having (inflation pressure) -- I don’t have much concern about inflation pressures picking up”.

Against this goldilocks economic backdrop, Williams suggested it’s okay to continue testing the limits without disturbing price stability: “Over the next couple of years we’re going to continue to learn whether maybe a lower unemployment rate is sustainable without creating inflationary pressures”. Finally, Williams clarified his comments are consistent with Powell’s recent remark that the Fed’s policy rate was “just below neutral range”.

Talking about Powell, on Tuesday the Fed Chair also looked hawkish as he said: “The Fed has made a great deal of progress towards a strong economy and sound financial system”. Like Williams, Powell also pointed to unemployment rate at 3.7% and strong job creation and others signs of strength beyond the labor market. Powell also noted the decline in financial hardship, wage gains, increased household wealth, and elevated consumer confidence and solid consumer spending.

Powell said: “However, the benefits of this strong economy and sound financial system have not reached all Americans. The aggregate statistics tend to mask important disparities by income, race, and geography”.

Powell pointed to some longer-term challenges like slow growth in wages for lower-income workers and doubt about whether the recent pick up in productivity is a sustainable trend as the aging population (unfavorable demography) is limiting labor supply growth and potential growth. Powell also noted that the decline in the US economic mobility also reflects the difficulty faced by lower-income Americans in moving up the economic ladder.

On late Thursday, the Atlanta Fed President Bostic said: “The Fed is within 'shouting distance' of neutral rates and it’s hard to judge the risk of overheating in real time but it feels like the loss of control on inflation is something the Fed shouldn't risk. I feel the policy should head to neutral and the Fed should consider that unemployment below normal for an extended period is a symptom of overheating”.

Bostic said the central bank may not have to go much further with interest rates to achieve a proper balance between an economic slowing and overheating. On Thursday, while addressing the key concept of where a "neutral" rate is for the economy, Bostic said the exact rate is hard to determine, but signs are indicating that it's close.

Bostic said: "I currently think we're within shouting distance of neutral, and I do think neutral is where we want to be. I'm not seeing clear signs of overheating, nor am I seeing any indications of a material weakening in the macroeconomic data at the moment”.

Without much elaborating about the schedule of future Fed hikes, Bostic pointed out: “The Fed ought to be taking a more neutral position — one that neither provides policy accommodation nor hinders growth. On one hand, inflation, if anything has softened slightly over the past three months, while the 3.7% unemployment rate is pointing to the type of economy that has posed problems in past years”.

Bostic warned: "Dating back to 1960, every high-pressure period ended in a recession. And all but one recession was preceded by a high-pressure period”.

On the economy broadly, Bostic pointed out that "there is a lot to like" about current conditions, though he acknowledged threats from trade tensions, a global slowdown, and volatility in financial markets.

Bostic also said he wouldn’t predict the outcome of the Fed’s December meeting, now less than two weeks away: “I’ll leave that to you”. Bostic said he expects the US GDP to slow over the next few years as the effects of Trump tax cuts begin to wane. By the end of 2020, he expects GDP will be growing modestly below a 2% annual rate. The trajectory of capital spending makes him skeptical that this year’s 3% growth rate can be sustained. Bostic said: “The Fed must balance the risks of being too timid with the risk of being too muscular. The best way to do this was to proceed cautiously, with a keen eye on the data”.

Fed’s Bostic is a known dove at least on neutral range than some of his FOMC colleagues as his researched range of neutral lies between +2.75% to +3.25%, although it’s effectively no different from the mean neutral rate of +3.00% (2.50-3.50%) being advocated by the Fed right now for the foreseeable future. Overall, Bostic said the Fed rate is still below neutral (range) and the (mean/average) “neutral”, where we want to be.

On late Thursday, Williams again popped up and said “Tariff is a negative for jobs. Although Trump’s tariff war with other countries has a relatively small effect on the economy, they created higher uncertainty for businesses”.

Williams pointed out “At least so far the tariffs that have been put in place, by the United States and other countries, when you roll that up into a $20-trillion economy it doesn’t have a big effect overall on economic growth or inflation. And, the much more important and larger effect is higher uncertainty for businesses. As companies put off investments due to the uncertainties, that’s a negative for jobs in the short run…and a factor that slows the economy relative to what it could be”.

Thus, Williams virtually blamed Trump’s trade war rhetorics for the subdued private/business capex and subsequent slowdown in the US economy and not Fed’s rate hikes/hawkish policy. At the same time, he also pointed out that Trump’s tariffs will not have any significant impact on the Fed’s monetary policy.

On late Thursday, Fed’s Chair Powell said in a community housing conference: “The US labor market is very strong by many measures as the job creation is strong, wages are gradually rising and the economy is performing very well overall with unemployment at the lowest rate since 1969. The higher labor participation is another positive development, but some communities yet to feel full benefits of a strong economy”. Powell sounds quite optimistic and hawkish for the US economic prospect.

Overall US economic data was subdued except PMI:

There was a deluge of economic data on Thursday in the US as Wednesday was closed. The ADP Nonfarm employment change for November plunged to 179K from 225K (revised downwards), lower than expectations of 196K. The US economy added 179K private-sector jobs in November as per ADP, which is indicating although the US economy remains strong in terms of employment for labor/skill shortages, the underlying details suggest some weakness as large-scale manufacturing jobs are in stress amid Trump tariff and trade war.

The US initial jobless claims edged down to 231K from prior 235K (revised higher) but were also higher than the expectations of 226K. Although the US jobless claims dropped after Thanksgiving holiday, it remains near 5-months high. The more reliable 4-monthly average of new jobless claims, meanwhile, surged to 228.00K from prior 223.75K (revised higher), also at the highest level in almost 8-months.

Although a spike in new jobless claims in November appeared odd with the US unemployment rate at a 49-year low and job openings near a record high, it may be due to an earlier than usual Thanksgiving which affected the government’s effort to adjust claims for seasonal variations; i.e. it may be seasonal.

But still, new claims did not decline nearly as much as expected in the week after Thanksgiving, a potential source of worry. Overall, any initial jobless claims numbers below 300K is an indication of a strong economy and thus even the latest figure of 231K, at below 250K is often considered as “exceptional”.

The US trade deficit for October soared to a 10-year high and touched -55.50B from prior -54.60B (revised upwards), and higher than the expectations of -55.20B. The higher trade deficit report could make Trump more “angry” as China soybean boycott cited, while US consumers/importers stepped up buying of Chinese goods to front run any higher import tariffs in the coming days ahead of the X-mas shopping season. It also shows that Trump’s China trade war policy is not working at all to reduce the huge trade deficit.

Trade deficit details showed that the US imports rose 0.2% to a record $266.5 billion in October as the US consumers/importers imported more autos, drugs and other consumer goods. And part of the October surge in imports reflects the US importers stocking up on Chinese goods ahead of the X-mas holiday/shopping season to get ahead (front run) of another increase in the US tariffs that was supposed to be kicked in on from 1st January’2019 as per earlier rhetoric from Trump (10% to 25% on $200B Chinese goods).

The US exports to China slipped 0.1% to $211 billion, largely because of a big drop in soybean shipments as retaliatory tariffs by China virtually stopped the US exports of soybean and other agri products.

Overall, the US trade deficit added up to almost $503 billion in the first 10 months of 2018 against about $451 billion in the same time period in 2017; i.e. an annual growth of around 11.5%. One reason the US runs large trade deficits is that the economy is doing better compared to other countries due to Trump’s fiscal stimulus and tax cuts. Now Americans simply can afford to buy more partially boosted by a steady wage growth and Trump tax cuts.

But there are also some structural factors like the US has stopped producing many consumer goods such as clothes and computers and it has to import them. China is one of the largest suppliers for the US for its cost-benefit, quality assurances, and large scale. And China is likely to remain so for years even if the country can’t strike a trade deal with Trump, who referred to himself as “Tariff Man” in a tweet this week and caused a plunge in risk-on trade.

But the big worries are that lingering trade tensions will raise costs for Americans businesses and consumers and damage the US economy. Also, the widening gap in the trade deficit was mainly driven by a further plunge in exports to China and suggests that negative net trade could once again be a drag on GDP growth in the Q4-2018.

The US Markit service PMI for November edged up to 54.7 from prior 54.4 sequentially, stronger than expectations of no change at 54.4, but the with new-order growth was at a 13-month low. The Markit composite PMI for November edged down to 54.7 from prior 54.9 sequentially (revised upwards from 54.4) and was higher than the expectations of 54.4.

Commenting on the US Service PMI data, Markit said: “The PMI surveys paint a picture of an economy growing at a solid annual rate of 2.5% so far in the fourth quarter, and continuing to add jobs in impressive numbers. Although some cooling in the rate of job creation was seen in November, the surveys are still pointing to payrolls growing at a monthly rate of around 185,000. The surveys, therefore, add to evidence that the domestic economy remains in good health, generating balanced growth across both manufacturing and services and increasingly outperforming other major economies”.

But Markit also warned: “However, while new business growth remained encouragingly resilient, it has eased to the lowest in over a year as demand showed some signs of softening, linked partly to growing concerns over trade wars,slower global demand growth, rising political uncertainty, and tighter financial conditions. Such concerns have also dampened business expectations about the year ahead, adding to signs that growth may have peaked, though any slowing in growth looks likely to be only modest”.

The November ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI surged to 60.7 from prior 60.3 sequentially, higher than expectations of 59.2 and the 2nd-strongest reading in 13 years. Overall, the production, new orders, inventories, prices paid and order backlog components of the ISM index rose in November, while employment, supplier deliveries and new export orders were among the decliners and 16 industries saw improvements, but agriculture was affected due to a trade war.

Commenting on the data, ISM said: “November continues our busy season, at a higher rate than we anticipated. Both internal and supplier resources have had success gaining some ground back on the backlog of orders. The business is preparing for the later phases of tariffs by slowing down growth and capital investment until the future becomes clearer. We are starting to pull months of inventory in before the next round of tariffs hit, so there is a lot of activity on our logistics side”.

Overall, the US business community is clearly worried about Trump trade war politics and the resultant uncertainty. Although the market is now discounting at least one hike in 2019 after the December’18 hike, the Fed may go for at least two hikes in 2019 and that could be done in an alternate quarter (like Q2/Q4) to go for at least 3.00% median neutral rate.

The Fed could pause after the Dec’18 hike for a quarter to assess the actual impact of four consecutive quarterly hikes in 2018 and the actual trajectory of oil, Trump trade war and its effect on the US core PCE inflation expectations and will move (hike) again in Q2-2019 and Q4-2019 to stay at a “safe neutral” level of +3.00%, for a Goldilocks US economy and Trump’s whim and fancies for his China trade/cold war.

The Fed will like to be ahead of the Trumpflation (inflation) curve and will maintain its symmetrical inflation target range at around average 2%; i.e. the Fed will tolerate the US core PCE inflation reading within a range between +1.75% to +2.25% and will maintain the neutral range (real rate of interest) at +0.50% to +1.50%; i.e. 1% in average for neutral rate, which would be 3.00% Fed/US nominal rate in the coming days. The Fed could revise its December dot-plots to project two rate hikes in Q2 and Q4-2019 instead of an earlier three rate hikes.

But the Fed will continue its B/S tapering in the present auto-pilot mode till 2021 to shrink its B/S by around 50% from around $4.3T, which would support the USD along with Trump trade/cold war rhetoric (negative for EM and commodity currencies) and Fed’s divergent monetary policy with other major central banks (BOJ/ECB/BOE).

Technical view: USDJPY

Technically, whatever may be the Fed’s neutral and Trump’s trade/cold war narrative, USDJPY now has to sustain over 113.35 for a further rally to 113.85/114.25*-114.55/114.75* and 115.50*/115.85-116.25/117.50 in the near term (under bullish case scenario).

On the flip side, sustaining below 113.10-113.00, USDJPY could further fall to 112.20*/111.80-111.30/110.90 and 110.55/110.30-109.70*/109.20 in the near term (under bear case scenario).

USD/JPY

Pivot:113.35

Support:112.2111.8111.3

Resistance:113.85114.25114.75

Scenario 1:USDJPY now has to sustain over 113.35 for a further rally to 113.85/114.25*-114.55/114.75* and 115.50*/115.85-116.25/117.50 in the near term (under bullish case scenario).

Scenario 2:On the flip side, sustaining below 113.10-112.95, USDJPY could further fall to 112.20*/111.80-111.30/110.90 and 110.55/110.30-109.70*/109.20 in the near term (under bear case scenario).

Comment:NEAR TERM RANGE: 111.30-114.75

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