Comments on: Curtis Granderson Hitting in the Bronxhttp://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/curtis-granderson-hitting-in-the-bronx/
Daily baseball statistical analysis and commentarySun, 02 Aug 2015 22:32:09 +0000hourly1http://wordpress.org/?v=4.1.1By: noseeumhttp://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/curtis-granderson-hitting-in-the-bronx/#comment-113379
Sat, 12 Dec 2009 05:44:56 +0000http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=12777#comment-113379OK, here, Royalplug, why don’t I just tear your statements down 1 by 1 for the heck of it?:
1. “But thats assuming he regresses…and that he doesn’t get injured…and that he doesn’t perform WORSE than he did last year(like someone said, what happens if he gets enamored of that short porch and hits 35 HRs…with a .220 AVG?)”

Injured – Any player can get injured. Granderson has not shown himself to be especially brittle. Neither have the others in this deal. You can’t use Granderson as an injury risk against him in analyzing the deal. He’s not Erik Bedard. Austin Jackson could get hit by a car tomorrow. Does that mean the Tigers are dumb?

Performing worse – Who’s more likely to perform worse?
-A rookie, moving up from AAA to a new ballpark that’s not hitter friendly, who hit 4 homer runs last year. Total. This guy has no shot of sniffing the Yankees starting lineup next year, and you’re predicting 3 WAR? Gimme a break. Melky Cabrera had 1.6 WAR in 2009, and you’re predicting 3 WAR in 2010 for Jackson? Pshaw.
-A minor league pitcher recovering from aneurysm surgery who’s never had success in the bigs and whose fastball averages below 90.
-A 29 year old all star who had a slightly subpar year for himself in 2009, moving from one of the worst hitters parks in baseball to one of the better for a lefty, and moving to a studly lineup where he’s not depended on to make everything happen.

The only guy of these three with a track record is Granderson. He’s the one that MUST be most trusted. The others are a crap shoot. You’re predicting the worst for Granderson and better than the best for these guys.

“Its also assuming that Kennedy doesnt break out, that jackson doesn’t break out (not that jackson really has to break out, from what I understand he is likely an above average CF, so if he was -10 batting and + 10 fielding…thats still about a ~3 win player)”

From what you understand? Really? Well, take a look at all the previous rookie center fielders for the last 50 years and tell me how may contribute 3 WAR? I’m not going to bother looking. You do it. Ridiculous statement.

Of course it’s assuming Kennedy doesn’t break out. Break out from what? His ceiling is a #3 starter. You expect that to happen in his first full season?

“They could have gone after Mike Cameron…”

Mike Cameron is a free agent. His salary will be much higher next year than Granderson’s. If they got Cameron, guess where Jackson would be? In AAA, adding 0 value. Now they have the money, and they have Granderson. They can use that money to sign Damon or whoever.

“So essentially the yankees paid 3 prospects and about $25 million for 3 total WAR over the next 3 years. Thats a prospect and ~$9 million PER WIN.”

They paid $8 million per year for Granderson. Which, if you haven’t noticed, is a bargain for an above average center fielder.. You wrote this as if the Yankees threw away $25 million yesterday, as opposed to over the next three years. Whoever else plays center has to get paid to you know.

“Crisp would likely be >4War if he was”

So Crisp, who in his last 5 years has gone over 120 games once and is currently recovering from a torn labrum which ended his season, is a safer risk than Granderson? You’re talking about the Yankees’ starting center fielder. I don’t even think the Royals want to have to depend on Crisp at this point.

Dude, you are putting rose colored glasses for every guy you bring up and painting the worst possible scenario for Granderson.

You would have been better off just leaving my original statement alone. Your post was moronic.

]]>By: Joserhttp://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/curtis-granderson-hitting-in-the-bronx/#comment-113377
Sat, 12 Dec 2009 05:31:57 +0000http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=12777#comment-113377Royalpug you were doing great there right up to the last word. Then you undid it all with an ad hominem. I know it’s hard to resist temptation, but we should all try to be better than our critics, not worse (he said we shouldn’t take you seriously, but didn’t actually descend into name-calling — and indeed, it is hard to take seriously someone who does). It’s sad to see a good argument ruined.
]]>By: royalpughttp://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/curtis-granderson-hitting-in-the-bronx/#comment-113369
Sat, 12 Dec 2009 02:56:51 +0000http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=12777#comment-113369Um do you have something to change what i said? do you disagree with my analysis? Then back it up. Don’t just say, well I disagree, thusfore you’re wrong.

And if you are going to criticize, then please do so correctly.

I specifically stated that Granderson was likely worth 4 WAR…I also specifically stated that the yankees have a FREE player under control for the next 3 years that would be basically worth 3 WAR.

Thus by trading for Granderson the Yankees added 1 WAR a year that they did not have. I’m just saying that to aquire that extra WAR, the yankees paid too much.

Now please if you disagree with that(either because you think Granderson is better than that, or if Jackson would be below average all around, or if you have some REAL problem with what I said, then say it and stop being an idiot

]]>By: noseeumhttp://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/curtis-granderson-hitting-in-the-bronx/#comment-113225
Fri, 11 Dec 2009 14:32:16 +0000http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=12777#comment-113225I like how Royalplug just turned Granderson into a 1 WAR per year player, and somehow we’re supposed to read the rest of his comment.
]]>By: CircleChange11http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/curtis-granderson-hitting-in-the-bronx/#comment-113137
Fri, 11 Dec 2009 02:31:19 +0000http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=12777#comment-113137I agree, and you guys have made some good additional comments.

I simply said I’d rather him his “closer” to .300 than try to add 5+ HRs. That is, of course, assuming (even if just for conversation sake) that he gets “power happy”.

It may be very possible for him to just keep his regular swing, and hit 35 HRs and bat somewhere between .270-.280

If he does that, stays healthy, and plays decent defense, this is just an incredible bargain for the NYY. Not so much because the NYY are so smart, but because DET is in such a crappy situation (much of which is their own doing).

]]>By: Royalpughttp://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/curtis-granderson-hitting-in-the-bronx/#comment-113017
Thu, 10 Dec 2009 20:02:18 +0000http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=12777#comment-113017But thats assuming he regresses…and that he doesn’t get injured…and that he doesn’t perform WORSE than he did last year(like someone said, what happens if he gets enamored of that short porch and hits 35 HRs…with a .220 AVG?)

Its also assuming that Kennedy doesnt break out, that jackson doesn’t break out (not that jackson really has to break out, from what I understand he is likely an above average CF, so if he was -10 batting and + 10 fielding…thats still about a ~3 win player)

So essentially the yankees paid 3 prospects and about $25 million for 3 total WAR over the next 3 years. Thats a prospect and ~$9 million PER WIN.

Another thing to consider is whether there were better options? did the yankees simply go after granderson because of his star power?
They could have gone after Mike Cameron, likely available for less monetarily and no prospects. Cameron put up 4.3 WAR last year…Granderson put up 3.8.
Or they could have gone with Coco Crisp, sure its a gamble assuming hes healthy, but Crisp would likely be >4War if he was.

My point is the yankees gave up too much for a guy who they didn’t really need and a guy who is likely worse than several other available alternatives.
I just don’t see how this is a good trade unless you like “Star Power”

]]>By: Royalpughttp://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/curtis-granderson-hitting-in-the-bronx/#comment-113008
Thu, 10 Dec 2009 19:52:57 +0000http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=12777#comment-113008The sense that he had one huge year of spectacular offense and defense and has declined and shown little indication of being able to do that again.
]]>By: BA Baracushttp://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/curtis-granderson-hitting-in-the-bronx/#comment-113005
Thu, 10 Dec 2009 19:47:23 +0000http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=12777#comment-113005Was somebody passing around the wacky red when saying the Yankees are going out on a limb to pickup Grandy? Are you kidding me?

A close to elite player in his prime with reasonable finances for the next four years for an avg/speed guy with NO POWER, a pitching prospect who would be at best a #4 in the AL East ( he does project higher now in the NL), and a middle reliever that you can pickup anywhere.

I know some of you are Austin Jackson/Ian Kennedy fans but lets be real.

And now you can tell Blubbering Boras to go kiss himself when he tries to sell his throw-like-a-girl, cant throw anyone out, love that jetstream in Yankee Stadium client. No thanks.

]]>By: David MVP Ecksteinhttp://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/curtis-granderson-hitting-in-the-bronx/#comment-112939
Thu, 10 Dec 2009 17:21:36 +0000http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=12777#comment-112939There is no reason to use a weighted HR average for Granderson. His ISO away from comerica .232 easily shows 30+ HR power and a move to Yankee stadium exaggerated HRs in general by 21.6%. That number may decline, but there is no reason to expect anything short of a disproportionate amount of exaggerating applying to lefty pull hitters. Even in his AB shortened season, Granderson was on pace for an upper 20’s HR thing. 30-35 jack is very reasonable for Granderson at Yankee Stadium. A lot more of grandersons lazy right field popuups will go yard in 2010
]]>By: Stevehttp://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/curtis-granderson-hitting-in-the-bronx/#comment-112924
Thu, 10 Dec 2009 16:33:27 +0000http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=12777#comment-112924“If we assume his average regresses to the mean that makes him something like a .280/.360/480, which when combined with his current defense makes him about a ~4 win player.”