US-Russia tensions not likely to affect treaty

Despite growing tensions between Russia and the United States, there are no current indications that the reductions required under the strategic nuclear arms treaty between the two nations will be stalled.

"I think both sides have an interest in continuing to implement the New START treaty," Steven Pifer said Thursday in an interview with the Tribune.

Pifer is the director of the Brookings Arms Control and Non-Proliferation Initiative and a senior fellow with the Center for 21st Century Security and Intelligence and Center on United States and Europe. He's also a former ambassador to Ukraine.

The U.S government said earlier this week that Russia violated the 1987 Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty, or INF, which eliminated nuclear and conventional ground-launched ballistic missiles and cruise missiles with a range of 300-3,400 miles.

Russia stands accused of testing an intermediate range cruise missile. A cruise missile is not a intercontinental ballistic missile like those at Malmstrom Air Force Base.

Some have said recent Russian actions and the increased sanctions from the U.S. and European nations are indicators that the countries are moving toward another Cold War, but Pifer said he doesn't think tensions have reached those levels.

"This is the most difficult point in U.S.-Russia relations since 1991," he said. "There's still areas where U.S.-Russia cooperation makes sense."

Complying with New START is one of those areas, he said.

Other areas include preventing Iran from developing nuclear weapons since it's possible Iran could make a weapon capable of reaching Russia, but not the U.S., Pifer said.

Meeting the treaty limits on strategic nuclear weapons provides stability and predictability for both countries.

"They know the max of strategic weapons," Pifer said. "And I think it's of value to them if we're headed toward a more confrontational relationship."

Pifer said the broader challenge will be finding ways to work with Russia on areas of mutual concern while also pushing back on INF non-compliance.

New START, as ratified in 2001, limits non-deployed missile launchers to 800. Deployed launchers are limited to 700.

In April, the Pentagon announced plans to remove 50 missiles from their silos across the nation's three ICBM bases, including Malmstrom. Those empty silos would remain in warm status, meaning they could be outfitted with a missile at any time.

Air Force officials have said the empty silos would rotate throughout all three missile fields to accommodate operations and maintenance needs.

The office of Sen. Jon Tester, D-Mont., said the Air Force decision to maintain all 450 silos would allow the military to ready the empty 50 within a few days if necessary, acting as a continued deterrent.

New START also allows for inspections between Russia and the U.S. to ensure both countries are complying with the treaty and allowing U.S. access to the Russian nuclear stockpile.

The determination of which missiles will be removed hasn't been made yet and there's currently no timeline for that decision other than the New START deadline of February 2018.

The empty silos will count toward the non-deployed launcher limit.

The Montana congressional delegation has pushed to retain all 450 ICBM silos, requiring some reduction in bomber and submarine launchers.

Rep. Steve Daines, R-Mont., has concerns about Russia's commitment to uphold New START, according to staffers, and added language to the House defense funding bill that states no funding can be used to implement New START unless the Defense and State departments can certify Russia is respecting Ukrainian sovereignty and abiding by their nuclear, missile and military treaty commitments.

Sen. John Walsh, D-Mont., said that Russia's recent actions reaffirm Malmstrom and the nuclear triad's importance and earlier this year pressed the White House to hold Russia accountable for violating the INF treaty.