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NFL NEED TO KNOW WEEK 2

he odds for Week 2 of the NFL season are steady for the most part. But there are a few games in which action is forcing bookmakers to move the numbers.

Covers.com talked to Jay Rood, sportsbook manager at the MGM Mirage in Las Vegas, about some of the biggest moves on the Week 2 board:

Cleveland Browns at Indianapolis Colts – Open: Colts +3, Current: +1

Without Peyton Manning and following a disastrous opener versus Houston, oddsmakers have no choice but to set Indianapolis as a home underdog. However, bettors think there’s more fight left in the Colts.

“If Indy was respectable in that opener and kept it close, this would no doubt be a different game,” says Rood.

The majority of straight bets (ATS) are on the Browns, but there is a ton of parlay action tied to the Colts as home underdogs.

After an embarrassing loss to the Bills in Week 1, the Chiefs head to the Motor City to face everyone’s betting darling, the Detroit Lions. Rood says that 90 percent of wagers are on Detroit and that his book has no problem taking all those bets at more than a touchdown.

“It’s a little early to declare (Detroit) a Super Bowl contender,” says Rood.

Just two weeks ago, the Bengals were the most-faded team in football. But after a surprise win in Week 1, bettors are shrinking the spread with action on Cincy. Rood says 80 percent of bets are on the Bengals.

“We’ve taken a few sharp bets on the Bengals, but there are a lot of parlays tied to the Broncos,” he says.

Two of the top QBs in the NFL equal plenty of offense, right? Bettors seem to think so, driving this number upwards. The Mirage opened this total at 52.5 and went to 53.5 points after action poured in on the over. However, bettors began to buy back the under once the number went to 54.5.

THE STORY: Michael Vick will make a second homecoming trip to Atlanta and, naturally, will be the center of attention – but for all the right reasons this time. Vick and the Dream Team otherwise known as the Philadelphia Eagles will visit the Georgia Dome for a high-profile, prime-time clash with the Atlanta Falcons on Sunday night.

Vick, the No. 1 overall pick in 2001, was a huge fan favorite in his six seasons in Atlanta, earning three Pro Bowl berths before he was jailed for nearly two years on federal dogfighting charges. His replacement, Matt Ryan, has gone 20-2 at home in his first three seasons and is in need of win No. 21 to prevent the Falcons from falling to 0-2 after a lopsided 30-12 loss at Chicago last week.

TV: NBC, 8:20 p.m. ET

LINE MOVEMENT: Depending on where you shop, the Falcons are anywhere from +3 to +1 home underdogs for Sunday night’s contest. Most Las Vegas books are dealing Atlanta +2.5. The total opened at 49.5 and has moved to 50 at only a few shops.

ABOUT THE FALCONS (0-1): Atlanta posted the NFC’s best record with a 13-3 mark in 2010, but that proved to be ancient history as the Falcons were humbled by the Bears in their season opener. Atlanta failed to score an offensive touchdown and committed three turnovers, including a fumble by Ryan that was returned for a touchdown. Ryan also threw a first-quarter interception that led to a TD. RB Michael Turner rushed for 100 yards but it came on only 10 carries as Ryan went to the air 47 times. Rookie Julio Jones had five receptions for 71 yards in his NFL debut.

ABOUT THE EAGLES (1-0): Philadelphia started slowly before turning on the jets and pulling away for a 31-13 win at St. Louis in its opener. Vick was not especially sharp passing (14 of 32, 187 yards) but he threw for a pair of touchdowns and rushed for 97 yards. DeSean Jackson ignored his contract squabble to haul in six receptions for 102 yards and a TD while LeSean McCoy piled up 122 yards rushing and a TD on only 15 carries. He also caught a scoring pass. Philly’s defense racked up five sacks, including two by Jason Babin, but did surrender 156 yards rushing.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. The Eagles have dominated the Falcons in their last two meetings, winning 31-17 in Philadelphia last season and 34-9 in Atlanta in 2009. The Eagles have beaten the Falcons four straight times and are 8-1 against them under coach Andy Reid.

2. Ryan has thrown for 32 TDs and 12 interceptions in 22 home games. When he compiles a quarterback rating of 100 or higher, the Falcons are a perfect 16-0.

3. “That’s not my house. That’s Matt Ryan’s house. I’m just a visitor.” – Vick on returning to the Georgia Dome, where he played his first six seasons.

TRENDS:

* Under is 5-0 in the last five meetings in Atlanta.
* Under is 6-1-1 in the last eight meetings.
* Eagles are 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 meetings.
* Eagles are 4-1-1 ATS in their last six meetings in Atlanta.
* Favorite is 7-2 ATS in their last nine meetings.

It’s no secret that the Achilles’ heel of Chicago is the offensive line. But this week’s opponent may not have the personnel to exploit that weakness.

Shaun Rogers and Aubrayo Franklin were supposed to improve a Saints pass rush that ranked in the bottom half of the NFL last year in sacks. They were non-factors during the Week 1 loss to Green Bay. Overall, the pressure from a thin front four was weak and prevented them from getting off the field on third downs.

“As a defense…we just need to get better at some things,” defensive tackle Sedrick Ellis told reporters.

New Orleans’ best pass rusher, Will Smith, will be sidelined again this week while finishing a two-game suspension for the StarCaps incident. The Bears offensive line is certainly vulnerable, but the offense as a whole looks worlds improved in its second year under Mike Martz.

Cleveland Browns at Indianapolis Colts (+1.5, 40)

Browns rushing offense vs. Colts rushing defense

It wasn’t Arian Foster racking up 231 rushing yards this time, but it was the same old story for the Colts run defense.

Ben Tate, Derrick Ward and Steve Slaton combined for 167 yards and two scores against Indianapolis in Week 1. The run defense could be even worse this week with middle linebacker Gary Brackett and reserve linebacker Ernie Sims sidelined.

Cleveland’s mammoth offensive line that carries an average weight of 314 pounds will be able to push around the Colts defense. Petyon Hillis and Monterio Hardesty should have big outings Sunday.

Seattle Seahawks at Pittsburgh Steelers (-14, 40)

Steelers pass rush vs. Seahawks offensive line

Vic Fangio threw the kitchen sink at Seattle’s offensive line last week and Tarvaris Jackson danced around the field like Michael Jackson. The 49ers recorded five sacks, eight quarterback hits and nine tackles for loss against the young Seahawks line.

With Robert Gallery sidelined, rookies James Carpenter and John Moffitt started at the guard positions. Those two, a pair of second-year players and Breno Giacomini comprised the youngest offensive line fielded by a team in 16 years.

Pittsburgh led the league in sacks last season (48) but they only got one in Week 1, and weren’t happy about it. Gallery is expected to return Sunday but this line will struggle again as it learns new schemes under Tom Cable.

Baltimore Ravens at Tennessee Titans (+5.5, 38)

Ray Rice vs. Titans rushing defense

It only took one week, but questions about Baltimore’s revamped offensive line have been put to rest.

Bryant McKinnie and Michael Oher will have little trouble sealing off holes for Ray Rice against a thin group of Tennessee defensive ends. Rice and Ricky Williams ran for 170 yards against arguably the league’s best run defense last week.

The Titans had issues defending the run in their opener, yielding 153 total yards on the ground, including 97 from Maurice Jones-Drew. Derrick Morgan and Jason Jones are expected to return for Tennessee but William Hayes has a shoulder injury. And the loss of Stephen Tulloch may have more of an impact on linebacker depth than originally envisioned.

It’s no secret that the Achilles’ heel of Chicago is the offensive line. But this week’s opponent may not have the personnel to exploit that weakness.

Shaun Rogers and Aubrayo Franklin were supposed to improve a Saints pass rush that ranked in the bottom half of the NFL last year in sacks. They were non-factors during the Week 1 loss to Green Bay. Overall, the pressure from a thin front four was weak and prevented them from getting off the field on third downs.

“As a defense…we just need to get better at some things,” defensive tackle Sedrick Ellis told reporters.

New Orleans’ best pass rusher, Will Smith, will be sidelined again this week while finishing a two-game suspension for the StarCaps incident. The Bears offensive line is certainly vulnerable, but the offense as a whole looks worlds improved in its second year under Mike Martz.

Cleveland Browns at Indianapolis Colts (+1.5, 40)

Browns rushing offense vs. Colts rushing defense

It wasn’t Arian Foster racking up 231 rushing yards this time, but it was the same old story for the Colts run defense.

Ben Tate, Derrick Ward and Steve Slaton combined for 167 yards and two scores against Indianapolis in Week 1. The run defense could be even worse this week with middle linebacker Gary Brackett and reserve linebacker Ernie Sims sidelined.

Cleveland’s mammoth offensive line that carries an average weight of 314 pounds will be able to push around the Colts defense. Petyon Hillis and Monterio Hardesty should have big outings Sunday.

Seattle Seahawks at Pittsburgh Steelers (-14, 40)

Steelers pass rush vs. Seahawks offensive line

Vic Fangio threw the kitchen sink at Seattle’s offensive line last week and Tarvaris Jackson danced around the field like Michael Jackson. The 49ers recorded five sacks, eight quarterback hits and nine tackles for loss against the young Seahawks line.

With Robert Gallery sidelined, rookies James Carpenter and John Moffitt started at the guard positions. Those two, a pair of second-year players and Breno Giacomini comprised the youngest offensive line fielded by a team in 16 years.

Pittsburgh led the league in sacks last season (48) but they only got one in Week 1, and weren’t happy about it. Gallery is expected to return Sunday but this line will struggle again as it learns new schemes under Tom Cable.

Baltimore Ravens at Tennessee Titans (+5.5, 38)

Ray Rice vs. Titans rushing defense

It only took one week, but questions about Baltimore’s revamped offensive line have been put to rest.

Bryant McKinnie and Michael Oher will have little trouble sealing off holes for Ray Rice against a thin group of Tennessee defensive ends. Rice and Ricky Williams ran for 170 yards against arguably the league’s best run defense last week.

The Titans had issues defending the run in their opener, yielding 153 total yards on the ground, including 97 from Maurice Jones-Drew. Derrick Morgan and Jason Jones are expected to return for Tennessee but William Hayes has a shoulder injury. And the loss of Stephen Tulloch may have more of an impact on linebacker depth than originally envisioned.

NFL: The Redskins are 4-0-1 ATS in their last five overall dating back to last season.

NFL: The under is 5-0 in Buffalo’s last five home games.

MLB: The Royals are 6-0 in their last six overall and 4-0 in their last four home games.

MLB: The Giants are 6-0 in their last six overall and 5-1 in their last six road games.

WNBA: Atlanta is 5-0 ATS in its last five overall and 4-0 ATS in its last four against the Eastern Conference.

Who’s not

NFL: The Browns are 0-5 ATS in their last five overall dating back to last season.

NFL: The Vikings are 1-4 ATS in their last five home games.

MLB: The Mets are 1-6 in their last seven overall.

MLB: The Twins are 0-6 in their last six overall.

WNBA: The over is 1-5 in San Antonio’s last six home games.

Key stat

419 – Drew Brees’ passing yards in New Orleans’ Week 1 shootout loss to the Packers. Dating back to last season’s playoff game at Seattle, Brees now has two straight 400-yard passing games. Something will have to give, though, against a Chicago defense that is expected to have Brian Urlacher on Sunday. The Bears were the only team that did not allow an offensive touchdown in Week 1 as they manhandled Atlanta 30-12.

Injuries that shouldn’t be overlooked

The Jets will be looking to make a stronger statement at home after just barely making out with a gift-wrapped win over the Cowboys in Week 1. However, they may be without several key players in their attempt to do that on Sunday against Jacksonville. Linebacker David Harris (toe), wideout Santonio Holmes (knee), and safety Eric Smith (ankle) are all listed as questionable for New York. Head coach Rex Ryan said he likes Harris’ chances of playing, but it sounds like Holmes and Smith are 50-50.

Biggest games on the slate

San Diego Chargers at New England Patriots (-7, 53.5)

Philadelphia Eagles at Atlanta Falcons (1.5, 49.5)

Notable quotable

“The last time I lost a game was Navarro Junior College. What do you want me to say, it feels great? It is not a comfortable feeling for me.”– Carolina Panthers’ quarterback Cam Newton after losing last week at Arizona despite his 422-yard passing performance. Newton may have to get used to the feeling, though, because Carolina is a 10-point underdog against Green Bay on Sunday.

Tips and notes

Justin Verlander can become the first 24-game winner since Bob Welch won 27 games for the Athletics in 1990 when he takes the mound on Sunday at Oakland. Verlander has picked up the win in 11 straight starts and he has not taken a loss since July 15. The righty is coming off seven innings of a shutout ball in a victory over the White Sox on Tuesday.

Reggie Bush saw the field for 75 offensive snaps during Miami’s Week 1 Monday night loss to New England. Don’t expect that to happen on Sunday at Houston—or ever again. “I have to do a little better job of play counts of a few guys during the course of the game,” Dolphins’ head coach Tony Sporano told the South Florida Sun Sentinel. Bush had 11 rushes and nine receptions last week, including one catch for a touchdown. The Texans, meanwhile, held a Peyton Manning-less Indy team to 236 total yards last Sunday.

The Atlanta Dream went into Connecticut on Friday and stole Game 1 of their WNBA Conference Semifinals series. If recent history is any indication, that could be all she wrote for the Sun. In the last 10 meetings between the two teams, the road team has only won twice—and both times that was Atlanta. Connecticut is 0-5 (2-3 ATS) in its last five trips to Atlanta heading into Game 2 on Sunday. Conference semifinal history also isn’t good for the Sun, who are 0-6 ATS in their last six at this stage of the playoffs.

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