Caulfield Race 7: William Hill Sprint Series Heat 2 Stakes 1200m

18/09/2015: This is a really interesting race as there are several ways of assessing the race. Eventually I chose Hazard simply because she is the best mare in the race and I have to use that factor as my guide. The win by the mighty mare Catkins last Saturday franks the form from Queensland when Hazard won the Group 2 Dane Ripper. I had to take a chance against Vezalay for two reasons: the seven day back up after a hard run and the actual drop back in distance which could also be a positive. However, both reasons, could mean "zippo" so I kept her for the B selection. Tycoon Tara ran a terrific first up race against the mighty Chautauqua and the drop back to a more sedate own sex race gives her a strong chance in this event. Wawail is unbeaten first up from three attempts however those wins were against weaker company and at 1100m or shorter and the last 100m is a concern. Where the pendulum can swing is that Wawail is a very classy mare and that type overcomes obstacles. Politeness figures as a stronger chance if the rain arrives and Girl Guide, even though a non winner for several runs, is a dead set trier and at the odds has to go in.

There are some races where the confidence level is high that the pace will solid for all runners and this is one of them. It’s a beautiful spread amongst the fifteen candidates as I have four leaders and three on pacers ensuring the mid fielders and back markers will get their chance.