City of Modesto housing element : 2003-2008

City of Modesto
Housing Element
( 2003- 2008)
Adopted by Modesto City Council
Resolution No. 2004- 233
April 27, 2004
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City of Modesto
Housing Element
( 2003- 2008)
City of Modesto
Community and Economic Development Department
Planning Division
Suite 3300
1010 Tenth Street
Modesto, CA 95354
( 209) 577- 5267
www. ci. modesto. ca. us
City of Modesto Housing Element April 27, 2004
i
City of Modesto
2003- 2008 Housing Element
Table of Contents
Section Page
1. INTRODUCTION
A. Community Context .................................................................................................. 1- 1
B. State Policy and Authorization.................................................................................. 1- 2
C. Role of the Housing Element .................................................................................... 1- 2
D. Data Sources.............................................................................................................. 1- 4
E. Relationship to the Modesto Urban Area General Plan ............................................ 1- 4
F. Community Involvement........................................................................................... 1- 9
2. HOUSING NEEDS ASSESSMENT
A. Purpose ...................................................................................................................... 2- 1
B. Community Context .................................................................................................. 2- 2
C. Regional Population and Economic Context........................................................... 2- 11
D. Local Population and Economic Characteristics..................................................... 2- 20
E. Future Housing Needs ............................................................................................. 2- 57
F. Summary of Issues .................................................................................................. 2- 58
3. CONSTRAINTS ANALYSIS
A. Market Constraints .................................................................................................... 3- 1
B. Governmental Constraints......................................................................................... 3- 7
C. Environmental and Infrastructure Constraints......................................................... 3- 24
4. RESOURCES ANALYSIS
A. Availability of Sites................................................................................................... 4- 1
B. Financial Resources................................................................................................. 4- 12
C. Administrative Resources........................................................................................ 4- 18
D. Opportunities for Energy Conservation .................................................................. 4- 21
5. REVIEW OF 1992 HOUSING ELEMENT PERFORMANCE
A. Purpose ...................................................................................................................... 5- 1
B. Assessment of Goals ................................................................................................. 5- 2
C. Assessment of Programs ........................................................................................... 5- 7
6. HOUSING PLAN
A. Housing Goals and Policies....................................................................................... 6- 2
B. Implementing Programs ............................................................................................ 6- 5
C. Quantified Objectives.............................................................................................. 6- 30
Table of Contents
City of Modesto Housing Element April 27, 2004
ii
APPENDICES
Map A- 1 City of Modesto Vacant and Underdeveloped Commercial and Professional Office
Zoned Properties within the Incorporated Area.
Map A- 2 City of Modesto Potential Emergency Shelter Sites based on Underdeveloped and
Vacant Industrial Zoned Properties within the Incorporated Area.
Map A- 3 City of Modesto Vacant and Underdeveloped Residential Zoned Properties within the
Incorporated Area
Map A- 4 City of Modesto General Plan Areas
Map A- 5 City of Modesto Residential Specific Plan Areas
Map A- 6 City of Modesto Residential CPD’s and Areas with a Positive Measure A/ M Vote
Map A- 7 City of Modesto Sewer Trunk and Water Transmission Lines
Table A- 1 Summary Table of Residential Sites Inventory within the Modesto City Limits.
Table A- 2 Measure M Area Development Assumptions Table
TABLES
Table Page
1- 1 General Plan Consistency Analysis........................................................................................ 1- 5
2- 1 Population Percentage Change, 1990 and 2000 ..................................................................... 2- 2
2- 2 Median Home Value in 1990 and 2000 –
East Bay Counties and Stanislaus County.............................................................................. 2- 8
2- 3 San Joaquin Valley Counties, 2000 Projection .................................................................... 2- 11
2- 4 Housing Tenure in San Joaquin Valley, Modesto, and California ....................................... 2- 13
2- 5 1999 Household Incomes: California, San Joaquin Valley, and Modesto ........................... 2- 13
2- 6 Median Household Income in Bay Area Counties and San Joaquin Valley Region............ 2- 14
2- 7 Occupational Distribution in Modesto, Region, California.................................................. 2- 14
2- 8 Commuting in California, San Joaquin Valley Region, Modesto ........................................ 2- 16
2- 9 Modesto Average Commute Time, 1990 and 2000.............................................................. 2- 16
2- 10 Regional Population Growth ................................................................................................ 2- 17
2- 11 Modesto Growth Capacity.................................................................................................... 2- 17
2- 12 Employment Growth in Stan COG Region, 1990- 2025....................................................... 2- 18
2- 13 Stanislaus County Occupations with Job Growth, 1999- 2006 ............................................. 2- 19
2- 14 Modesto and Surrounding Communities Populations: 1980- 2020....................................... 2- 21
2- 15 Race and Ethnicity in Modesto and California, 1990 and 2000........................................... 2- 21
2- 16 Household Types.................................................................................................................. 2- 24
2- 17 Modesto 2002 Estimates ...................................................................................................... 2- 25
2- 18 Tenure by Age .................................................................................................................... 2- 25
2- 19 Housing Costs as Percentage of Household Income ............................................................ 2- 26
2- 20 Income in Modesto, Region, State ....................................................................................... 2- 27
2- 21 Income Level by Tenure....................................................................................................... 2- 28
2- 22 Occupation of Modesto Residents, 1990 and 2000 .............................................................. 2- 30
2- 23 Major Employers in Modesto............................................................................................... 2- 30
2- 24 Modesto Annual Salaries, Selected Occupations, 2000 ....................................................... 2- 31
2- 25 Households and Employment, Modesto and Stanislaus County .......................................... 2- 32
2- 26 Households and Employment, Modesto, 1990- 2000............................................................ 2- 33
2- 27 Relevant Economic Development Action Plan Policies and Actions .................................. 2- 34
Table of Contents
City of Modesto Housing Element April 27, 2004
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Tables ( cont.)
Table Page
2- 28 Special Needs Groups, 1990- 2000 ....................................................................................... 2- 36
2- 29 Disability and Employment Status of Modesto Residents Aged 5+ .................................... 2- 37
2- 30 Disability Type by Age ........................................................................................................ 2- 38
2- 31 Licensed Care Community Facilities ................................................................................... 2- 39
2- 32 Housing Issues of Special Importance to Seniors ................................................................ 2- 39
2- 33 Senior Population ................................................................................................................. 2- 40
2- 34 Housing Cost Burden among Senior Households ................................................................ 2- 40
2- 35 Large Family Income Levels................................................................................................ 2- 42
2- 36 Types of Homeless ............................................................................................................... 2- 43
2- 37 Emergency Shelters in Modesto........................................................................................... 2- 44
2- 38 City- Supported Transitional Housing................................................................................... 2- 44
2- 39 Housing Stock, 1990 and 2000............................................................................................. 2- 46
2- 40 Age of Housing Stock .......................................................................................................... 2- 47
2- 41 City- Supported Multi- Family Affordable Housing.............................................................. 2- 49
2- 42 Modesto Affordable Housing Developed, 1993- 2000 ......................................................... 2- 49
2- 43 Modesto Federally- Assisted Multi- Family Housing Inventory............................................ 2- 50
2- 44 Rent Subsidies Required ...................................................................................................... 2- 51
2- 45 Housing Affordability Matrix............................................................................................... 2- 53
2- 46 Home Sales Prices, 1997- 2002............................................................................................. 2- 54
2- 47 Single- Family Sales Prices by Number of Bedrooms, January – October 2002.................. 2- 54
2- 48 Condominium Sales Prices, January through November 2002 ............................................ 2- 55
2- 49 Increase in Owner and Renter Costs, Modesto and Bay Area.............................................. 2- 56
3- 1 Disposition of Home Loans, Conventional v. Government- Insured...................................... 3- 3
3- 2 Disposition of Conventional Home Improvement Loans....................................................... 3- 5
3- 3 Land Use Categories Permitting Residential Use .................................................................. 3- 7
3- 4 Conventional Housing Types Permitted by Zone .................................................................. 3- 8
3- 5 Special Needs Housing Types Permitted by Zone ............................................................... 3- 11
3- 6 Vacant and Underdeveloped Commercial and Industrial Properties.................................... 3- 12
3- 7 Residential Development Standards..................................................................................... 3- 13
3- 8 Parking Requirements .......................................................................................................... 3- 15
4- 1 Share of Regional Housing Needs.......................................................................................... 4- 2
4- 2 Remaining Allocation: RHNA............................................................................................... 4- 3
4- 3 Residential Sites Inventory within City Limits ...................................................................... 4- 4
4- 4 Residential Sites Inventory with City Sphere of Influence .................................................... 4- 9
4- 5 Sites Inventory and Share of Regional Housing Needs........................................................ 4- 11
4- 6 Financial Resources for Housing Activities ......................................................................... 4- 15
5- 1 Housing Production from 1992- 2000..................................................................................... 5- 3
5- 2 Housing Accomplishments since 1992 .................................................................................. 5- 7
6- 1 Summary of Five- Year Quantified Housing Objectives ...................................................... 6- 31
Table of Contents
City of Modesto Housing Element April 27, 2004
iv
Figures
Figure Page
2- 1 Regional and Local Vicinity Map .......................................................................................... 2- 3
2- 2 Population of Modesto, 1970- 2020 ........................................................................................ 2- 4
2- 3 Housing Units Constructed, 1990- 2001 ................................................................................. 2- 4
2- 4 Stanislaus County Prime Farmland Converted to Urban Use, 1992- 2000 ............................. 2- 6
2- 5 Median Home Value, California Counties, 2000 ................................................................... 2- 9
2- 6 Median Rent, California Counties, 2000.............................................................................. 2- 10
2- 7 Farming Share of Total Employment, Stanislaus County and California ............................ 2- 15
2- 8 Concentration of Minority Households ................................................................................ 2- 23
2- 9 Low- Income Target Areas.................................................................................................... 2- 29
2- 10 Median Age of Housing Stock ............................................................................................. 2- 48
2- 11 Index of Central Valley Home Prices, 1995- 2002 ............................................................... 2- 55
City of Modesto Housing Element April 27, 2004
1- 1
INTRODUCTION
A. COMMUNITY CONTEXT
The City of Modesto faces a critical need to plan for
and provide sufficient housing units, resources, and
programs for our residents. Rising housing costs, a
large anticipated population growth, and changing
demographics all illustrate the need to develop an
approach and strategy to producing housing that
matches the needs of the people of Modesto. Based
on the most up- to- date data, resources, and
knowledge available, the City has undertaken the task
of planning to meet housing needs for the period of
2003- 2008. The result of this effort is the Housing
Element of the General Plan.
Since the late 1990s, Modesto has experienced a substantial rise in housing costs for both
rental and ownership housing. Despite a relatively high rate of housing production from
2000- 2002, housing costs have continued to rise and threaten to make the average home
unaffordable to the average working family in the City. Diminishing housing affordability in
Bay Area jurisdictions has increased the demand for housing in Modesto, resulting in
increased housing prices, housing cost burden, and lack of affordable housing production in
Modesto. Meanwhile, the City also faces a need to continue upgrading housing and
reinvesting in neighborhoods.
Within this broad context, Modesto must address key housing challenges over the 2003- 2008
planning period. These challenges include:
1) Providing sites for additional housing;
2) Providing for a range in types and prices of housing;
3) Continuing to address the need to improve and rehabilitate housing and
neighborhoods;
4) Providing for those with special housing needs; and
5) Maintaining and improving the local environment and quality of life in Modesto.
The 2003- 2008 Housing Element addresses these issues through a comprehensive housing
strategy.
Creating a suitable and effective housing strategy is a complex process, but one defined by
the needs of those living and working within the community. The diverse population of
Modesto requires an approach that can produce an equally diverse range of housing choices,
including single- family homes, apartments, condominiums, housing for special needs groups
Introduction
City of Modesto Housing Element April 27, 2004
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( including the homeless), and many others. While the content of the Housing Element is
based on community needs, the format and organization of the document is also largely
determined by State law. The sections below provide an overview of the content and format
of the Housing Element, describe the input into the Plan by Modesto residents and interested
parties, defines the relationship of the Housing Element to the General Plan, and discusses
how the Housing Element will be used by the City to encourage housing production in a pace
and manner consistent with community goals.
B. STATE POLICY AND AUTHORIZATION
The California Legislature has identified the attainment of a decent home and suitable living
environment for every resident as the State’s major housing goal. Recognizing the important
role of local planning programs in pursuing this goal, the Legislature has mandated that all
cities and counties prepare a housing element as part of their comprehensive general plan.
Section 65302( c) of the Government Code sets forth the specific components to be contained
in a community’s housing element.
State law requires housing elements to be updated at least every five years to reflect a
community’s changing housing needs. The 1992 Modesto Housing Element covered the
five- year period spanning 1992 through 1997. However, due to an economic downturn in the
mid- 1990s and a shortfall in State funds, the Legislature extended the planning period for the
1992 Housing Element through June 30, 2003. Thus, this Housing Element covers the
planning period of July 1, 2003 to June 30, 2008. Special legislation was later adopted to
provide an extension for completing the Housing Element update to December 31, 2003.
A critical measure of compliance with the State Housing Element law is the ability of a
jurisdiction to accommodate its share of the regional housing needs – Regional Housing
Needs Allocation ( RHNA). For Stanislaus County, the regional growth projected by the
State was for the period between January 1, 2001 and June 30, 2008. Therefore, while the
Housing Element is a five- year document covering July 1, 2003 to June 30, 2008, the City
has seven and one- half years ( January 1, 2001 to June 30, 2008) to fulfill the RHNA.
C. ROLE OF HOUSING ELEMENT
The Housing Element of the General Plan is designed to provide the City with a coordinated
and comprehensive strategy for promoting the production of safe, decent, and affordable
housing within the community. A priority of both State and local governments, Government
Code Section 65580 states the intent of creating housing elements:
The availability of housing is of vital statewide importance, and the early
attainment of decent housing and a suitable living environment for every
California family is a priority of the highest order.
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Per State law, the Housing Element has two main purposes:
( 1) To provide an assessment of both current and future housing needs and constraints in
meeting these needs; and
( 2) To provide a strategy that establishes housing goals, policies, and programs.
Beyond State law requirements, Modesto has areas of special priority that provide additional
purpose to the Housing Element. The unique conditions and market forces in play in
Modesto require that the Housing Element focus on additional concerns, such as the
influence of San Francisco Bay Area workers have on the local housing market and the
pursuit of a jobs/ housing balance for the economic well- being of the community. The State-mandated
concerns and the local concerns combine to set the foundation upon which this
Housing Element is built.
The Housing Element is a five- year plan for the 2003- 2008 period, unlike other General Plan
elements that typically cover a 10- to 30- year planning horizon. The Modesto Urban Area
General Plan, for instance, encompasses goals and policies intended to guide growth and
development through the year 2025. This Housing Element identifies strategies and
programs that focus on:
1) Matching housing supply with need;
2) Maximizing housing choice throughout the community;
3) Assisting in the provision of affordable housing;
4) Removing governmental and other constraints to housing investment; and
5) Promoting fair and equal housing opportunities.
The Housing Element consists of the following major components:
An analysis of the City's demographics, housing characteristics, and existing and
future housing needs ( Section 2).
A review of potential market, governmental, and environmental constraints to
meeting the City's identified housing needs ( Section 3).
An evaluation of the land, financial, and organizational resources available to address
the City’s identified housing needs ( Section 4).
A review of the City’s accomplishments from the previous 1992 Housing Element,
including quantified results of programs ( Section 5).
A statement of the Housing Plan to address the City's identified housing needs,
including housing goals, policies and programs ( Section 6).
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D. DATA SOURCES
In preparing the Housing Element, various sources of information were used. Wherever
possible, Census 2000 data provided the baseline for all demographic information.
Additional sources provided reliable updates to the 2000 Census. These include housing
market data from Dataquick, employment data from the Employment Development
Department, lending data from financial institutions provided under the Home Mortgage
Disclosure Act ( HMDA), and the most recent data available from service agencies and other
governmental agencies. In addition, the City’s 2003- 2008 Housing Element implements the
most recent changes to State Housing Element law, including those affecting the
development, maintenance, and improvement of housing for persons with disabilities.
E. RELATIONSHIP TO THE MODESTO URBAN
AREA GENERAL PLAN
The Housing Element is a component of the Modesto Urban Area General Plan, which
provides guiding policy for all growth and development within the community. The General
Plan consists of seven chapters that address both the State- mandated planning issues plus
optional subjects that are of particular concern to the City. These chapters are:
Community Growth Strategy
Community Development
Housing
Community Services and Facilities
Public Safety
Environmental Resources and Open Space
General Plan Implementation
State law requires consistency among sections of the General Plan. As such, goals and
policies contained within the Housing Element should be interpreted and implemented
consistent with the goals and policies of the rest of the General Plan. To ensure that the
contents of the 2003- 2008 Housing Element maintain consistency with the adopted General
Plan, an analysis of the two documents was conducted. Table 1- 1 provides the goals and
policies of the Housing Element and other General Plan policies that support them.
The City will ensure consistency between the Housing Element and other General Plan
elements so that policies introduced in one element are consistent with other elements. At
this time, the Housing Element does not propose significant changes to any other element of
the City’s General Plan. However, if it becomes apparent that over time that changes to any
element are needed for internal consistency, such changes will be proposed for consideration
by the Planning Commission and City Council.
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City of Modesto Housing Element April 27, 2004
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Table 1- 1
General Plan Consistency Analysis
Housing Element General Plan Supporting Policies
# Policy Element Topic Issue Policy
1.1 Support housing for all
income groups.
Community
Development
Neo-
Traditional
Principles
C Neighborhoods should contain
a diversity of housing types to
enable citizens from a wide
range of economic levels to
live within its boundaries.
1.2 Promote the
development of
affordable housing
throughout the
community.
Community
Development
Neo-
Traditional
Principles
C Neighborhoods should contain
a diversity of housing types to
enable citizens from a wide
range of economic levels to
live within its boundaries.
1.2 Facilitate development
of housing for special
needs groups.
No specific policies in General Plan that either support or contradict this
housing element policy
1.4 Facilitate the
development of entry-level
and step- up
housing.
Community
Development
Neighborhood
Plan Prototype
A Neighborhoods should contain
a variety of housing types, as
allowed by the R- 1, R- 2, R- 3,
and P- D zones of the Modesto
Zoning Code.
2.1 Promote equal
opportunity for all
residents to reside in the
housing of their choice.
Community
Development
Neo-
Traditional
Principles
C Neighborhoods should contain
a diversity of housing types to
enable citizens from a wide
range of economic levels to
live within its boundaries.
2.2 Continue to make a
strong commitment to
the issue of fair housing
practices.
Community
Development
Neo-
Traditional
Principles
C Neighborhoods should contain
a diversity of housing types to
enable citizens from a wide
range of economic levels to
live within its boundaries.
2.3 Encourage a range of
housing types to be
constructed in
subdivisions and large
developments.
Community
Development
Neighborhood
Plan Prototype
A Neighborhoods should contain
a variety of housing types, as
allowed by the R- 1, R- 2, R- 3,
and P- D zones of the Modesto
Zoning Code.
2.4 Facilitate the
development of second
units as an affordable
housing alternative.
Community
Development
Neighborhood
Plan Prototype
A Neighborhoods should contain
a variety of housing types, as
allowed by the R- 1, R- 2, R- 3,
and P- D zones of the Modesto
Zoning Code.
2.5 Encourage the
development and
rehabilitation of housing
that is accessible to
persons with disabilities.
No specific policies in General Plan that either support or contradict this
housing element policy.
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Table 1- 1
General Plan Consistency Analysis
Housing Element General Plan Supporting Policies
# Policy Element Topic Issue Policy
3.1 Maintain the supply of
safe, decent and sound
affordable housing in the
City of Modesto through
conservation and
rehabilitation.
No specific policies in General Plan that either support or contradict this
housing element policy.
3.2 Focus City resources for
housing rehabilitation
and assisted housing on
those having the greatest
need for assistance.
No specific policies in General Plan that either support or contradict this
housing element policy.
3.3 Make a maximum effort
to preserve the units in
assisted housing
developments eligible to
change to non- lower-income
uses.
No specific policies in General Plan that either support or contradict this
housing element policy.
3.4 Assist non- profit
housing providers in
acquisition,
rehabilitation, and
maintenance of older
homes as long- term
affordable housing.
No specific policies in General Plan that either support or contradict this
housing element policy.
3.5 Promote energy
conservation activities in
all residential
neighborhoods.
No specific policies in General Plan that either support or contradict this
housing element policy.
4.1 Track changes in
Housing Law to ensure
that land use regulations
are consistent with and
supportive of State and
federal laws.
No specific policies in General Plan that either support or contradict this
housing element policy.
4.2 Review local regulations
periodically for the
ability to accommodate
projected housing
demands.
No specific policies in General Plan that either support or contradict this
housing element policy.
4.3 Maintain an up- to- date
inventory of the amount,
type, and size of vacant
and underused land.
No specific policies in General Plan that either support or contradict this
housing element policy.
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Table 1- 1
General Plan Consistency Analysis
Housing Element General Plan Supporting Policies
# Policy Element Topic Issue Policy
4.4 Maintain an adequate
supply of appropriately
designated land for
special needs housing.
No specific policies in General Plan that either support or contradict this
housing element policy.
5.1 Establish and maintain
development standards
that support housing
production while
protecting quality of life
goals.
No specific policies in General Plan that either support or contradict this
housing element policy.
5.2 Continue to provide
financial incentives such
as fee deferrals and
exemptions for
affordable and special
housing projects.
No specific policies in General Plan that either support or contradict this
housing element policy.
5.3 Continue to provide for
timely and coordinated
processing of residential
development projects.
No specific policies in General Plan that either support or contradict this
housing element policy.
5.4 Review the City's fee
structure to ensure that
fees do not unduly
constrain the production
of housing.
No specific policies in General Plan that either support or contradict this
housing element policy.
6.1 Promote coordination
between infrastructure
master plans, service
area boundaries, and
housing plans.
Community
Facilities
Water Policies
Baseline Area
B The City of Modesto will
encourage the optimum
beneficial use of water
resources within the City. The
City shall strive to maintain an
adequate supply of high
quality water for urban uses.
6.2 Direct housing to areas
where infrastructure and
utilities can be provided.
Community
Facilities
Water Policies
Planned
Urbanizing
Area
B The City of Modesto shall
coordinate land development
projects with the expansion of
water treatment and supply
facilities.
6.3 Promote infill
development.
No specific policies in General Plan that either support or contradict this
housing element policy
6.4 Support policies and
regulations to ensure
implementation of
Federal and State laws
regarding stormwater
pollution prevention.
Community
Facilities
Water Policies
Baseline Area
B The City of Modesto will
encourage the optimum
beneficial use of water
resources within the City. The
City shall strive to maintain an
adequate supply of high
quality water for urban uses.
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City of Modesto Housing Element April 27, 2004
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Table 1- 1
General Plan Consistency Analysis
Housing Element General Plan Supporting Policies
# Policy Element Topic Issue Policy
7.1 Encourage the
development of
workforce housing.
No specific policies in General Plan that either support or contradict this
housing element policy.
7.2 Promote economic
development efforts that
create employment
opportunities for City
residents.
No specific policies in General Plan that either support or contradict this
housing element policy.
7.3 Work with Stanislaus
County and neighboring
jurisdictions to improve
the jobs- housing balance
in the region.
No specific policies in General Plan that either support or contradict this
housing element policy.
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F. COMMUNITY INVOLVEMENT
Public input on housing needs and strategies is critical to developing appropriate and
effective City housing programs. As part of the Housing Element update, the City undertook
a three- phase effort to involve residents, policy makers, and service providers. In the first
phase, the City conducted a series of community workshops to solicit information on housing
needs in the community. The second phase involved a series of meetings before the Housing
Element Advisory Committee ( HEAC). Seven HEAC meetings were held over a six- month
period to provide information to the public about the purpose, mandate, and contents of the
Element, and to provide opportunities for public input. The third and final community
involvement component is the public hearing process associated with the Planning
Commission and City Council consideration of the Housing Element.
Neighborhood Meetings
The City conducted neighborhood meetings on September 25, 26, and 30, 2002 for the
Housing Element. The purpose of the meetings was to introduce the public to the Housing
Element and to obtain feedback and direction on major housing issues facing the City. The
meetings were held in various locations and were advertised to generate interest through
direct mailing and local newspapers. The events were advertised at City Hall and various
City locations.
Housing Element Advisory Committee ( HEAC) Meetings
The City held seven public HEAC meetings between October, 2002 and May, 2003 to
discuss the housing element mandate, obtain input on community housing needs, and receive
policy direction from the HEAC. The HEAC meetings were open to the public, with special
invitations issued to service providers, stakeholders, and concerned residents. Of the groups
invited or noticed by mail, regular attendees included:
California Rural Legal Assistance
Community Housing and Shelter Services
Disability Resource Agency for Independent Living ( DRAIL)
Habitat for Humanity
League of Women Voters
Project Sentinel
Residents from the community
Stanislaus County Housing Authority
Stanislaus County Planning Department
Throughout the plan development process, interim products were prepared to assist the
HEAC and the public in formulating policies and programs. The Draft Housing Element was
a collaborative effort by the HEAC, service providers, stakeholders, concerned residents, and
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City of Modesto Housing Element April 27, 2004
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staff. The Draft Element was available for public review between May 7 and June 4 and was
presented before the Planning Commission and City Council on June 4.
Public Hearings
A joint study session and public hearing was
conducted on June 4, 2003 before the Planning
Commission and City Council to discuss the
Draft Housing Element prior to submittal of the
Element for review by the State Department of
Housing and Community Development ( HCD).
The meeting was attended by residents, public
agencies, and community groups, including:
California Rural Legal Assistance
Habitat for Humanity
League of Women Voters
Stanislaus County Housing Authority
In response to comments by the Planning Commission, City Council, and the public, the
Draft Housing Element was modified to strengthen the City’s commitment to several housing
programs.
Additional public hearings were conducted by the Planning Commission on February 18,
2004 and by the City Council on March 9 and April 27, 2004.
City of Modesto Housing Element April 27, 2004
2- 1
HOUSING NEEDS
ASSESSMENT
A. PURPOSE
Development of an appropriate and effective
housing strategy relies on an accurate and
dynamic characterization of the nature and
extent of existing housing needs, as well as a
projection of how those needs will change in
the future. Housing needs are affected by
local, regional, and to some extent, global
economic and financial conditions. However,
many variables that impact the supply and
demand of housing can be assessed and
addressed at the local level. Such variables
include employment and population growth, demographic composition, condition of the local
housing stock, relative housing affordability, and the availability of housing- related services.
The following presentation of existing and future housing needs is structured to assist
development of programs and policies in the Housing Element.
Community Context presents the primary characteristics of Modesto that influence
housing needs and housing policy. A summary of local and regional issues
introduces the more detailed sections that follow.
Regional Population and Economic Context presents the demographic and
employment characteristics and trends of the San Joaquin Valley and Stanislaus
County communities, with a focus on the regional and interregional issues that could
affect housing in Modesto.
Local Population and Economic Characteristics distinguishes Modesto from the
region, and presents detailed information on the population, household types and
incomes, occupations held by residents, housing stock, special needs populations,
inventory of affordable housing, and affordability gaps in the City.
Future Housing Needs details the City’s share of projected regional housing needs.
Housing Needs Assessment
City of Modesto Housing Element April 27, 2004
2- 2
B. COMMUNITY CONTEXT
Modesto is located in the northern part of the San Joaquin Valley in Stanislaus County along
State Route 99 and between the Stanislaus and Tuolumne rivers ( Figure 2- 1). Modesto is the
largest incorporated city in Stanislaus County and accounts for approximately 42 percent of
the County’s population ( as of 2000). The estimated 2002 population is 199,000.1
Population growth in Modesto is projected by the Stanislaus Council of Governments ( Stan
COG) to accelerate between 2000 and 2020, with the City population increasing to 418,000
by 2020 ( refer to Table 2- 1 and Figure 2- 2). The population increase anticipated by the
City’s Urban Area General Plan Master Environmental Impact Report is 390,000 by 2025,
while the estimated holding capacity of the planning area is 400,000.
As the largest city in the County, Modesto serves as Stanislaus County’s retail, government,
medical, and employment center. Surrounded by small cities and farmland, Modesto is
located approximately 90 miles east of San Francisco, 80 miles south of Sacramento, 110
miles west of Yosemite National Park, and 95 miles northwest of Fresno.
Table 2- 1
Modesto Percentage Population Change, 1990- 2020
1990 - 2000 2000 - 2010 2000 - 2020
15% 60% 122%
Sources: U. S. Census, 1990, 2000; Stan COG, 2002.
The housing stock in Modesto expanded during the past decade, with a relatively large
number of single- family homes added, especially in the northern and western portions of the
community. Between 1990 and 2001, multi- family housing construction accounted for only
10 percent of all housing units constructed ( see Figure 2- 3).
According to the Building Department, more housing units were built in 2000 than in any
other year between 1990 and 2001. Multi- family units, which never comprised more than 22
percent of the total units built in any year, were built at the highest rate in 1990 and have
decreased since then.
1 City of Modesto. Urban Area General Plan Draft Environmental Impact Report. November 2002; California Department
of Finance web site, 2002.
108
132
99
99
Claus Rd
Tully Rd
Claribel Rd
Coffee Rd
Sylvan Ave
Oakdale Rd
Mitchell Rd
219
Bangs Ave
Carpenter Rd
Rumble Rd
Woodland Ave
Sisk Rd
Standiford Ave
PARADISE RD
9th St
Floyd Ave
Dale Rd
Whitmore Ave
Crows Landing Rd
Milnes Rd
Parker Rd
Terminal Ave
Snyder Ave
Whitmore Ave
La Loma Ave.
Briggsmore Ave
El Vista Ave
Hatch Rd
Pelandale Ave
Rumble Rd
Mitchell Rd.
Central Ave
Bodem St
Paradise Rd
Ceres
Empire
Salida
Riverbank
4.02
15
31
5.08
20.02
5.01
30.01
6.01
21
9.12
13
22
14
19
24
18
5.04
4.04 4.03
6.02
5.05 5.06
8.01
25.01
23.01
11
5.07
12
9.05
20.04
9.06
5.03
28.02
17
8.05
16.03
10.01
8.03
9.07
9.08
9.10
25.02
27.02
9.09
28.03
20.03
27.01
23.02
10.02
8.06
26.04
8.07
9.11
26.02
26.05
16.01
26.03
3.03 3.04
16.04
City of Modesto Housing Element
Regional and Local
Vicinity Map
GIS maps prepared by: Cotton/ Bridges/ Associates
Source: City of Modesto and 2000 Census ( SF- 1 and SF- 3)
Figure 2- 1
2- 3
City of Modesto
Census Tracts ( 2000)
City Boundary
9.10
0 0.5 1 2 3 4
Miles
Regional Map
Stanislaus
County
Merced
County
San Joaquin
County Tuolumne
County
Turlock
Ceres
Oakdale
Keyes
Grayson
Riverbank
Patterson
Westley
Waterford
Hughson
5
Modesto
99
99
5
580
Housing Needs Assessment
City of Modesto Housing Element April 27, 2004
2- 4
Figure 2- 2
Population of Modesto, 1970- 2020
61,712
106,963
164,730 188,856
302,546
418,562
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
450,000
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
Source: U. S. Census, 1990, 2000; Stan COG, 2002.
Figure 2- 3
Housing Units Constructed, 1990- 2001
Source: Modesto Building Department, 2002.
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2,000
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
Units Constructed
Single- Family
Mult i- Family
Housing Needs Assessment
City of Modesto Housing Element April 27, 2004
2- 5
Employment growth has not been commensurate with population growth during the last 10
years; the total number of employed residents increased by only 10 percent as population
grew 15 percent. The run- away housing market in the Bay Area has resulted in an influx of
people who work in the Silicon Valley, San Francisco, and East Bay in search of affordable
housing eastward. Locally, this increase in long- distance commuting and imbalance of jobs
and housing is an important issue to be addressed through housing policy, economic
development initiatives, and land use planning.
Local Issues
Given its location, rapid growth spurred by regional
needs, and the desire to maintain and improve the
quality of life it offers, the City strives to manage
growth, encourage redevelopment of the downtown
areas, ensure provision of infrastructure, and
establish village- scale planning. Air quality, traffic
congestion, neighborhood character and integrity,
provision of adequate infrastructure and services, and
farmland preservation are some of the primary issues
the City considers in its attempt to appropriately
manage growth.
Several roadway segments in Modesto operate at congested levels of service, especially in
the central and northern portions of the City. Under buildout conditions specified in the 2003
General Plan Master EIR, 38 arterial segments would operate in excess of Level of Service
D, which is below City roadway standards. Air quality and noise impacts of additional
traffic caused by future growth are a concern.
In the San Joaquin Valley Air Basin, which
the City of Modesto is located within, the
primary air pollutants of concern are ozone
and particulate matter. The Basin was
reclassified from serious to severe
nonattainment in 1999 by the federal
Environmental Protection Agency, and is
in severe nonattainment for State ozone
standards and in nonattainment for State
and federal particulate matter standards. Activities associated with population growth such
as automobile traffic and construction further contribute to formation of ozone and emission
of particulate matter.
City water comes from approximately 120 groundwater wells and from surface water
delivered via the Modesto Regional Treatment Plant. Historically, overdraft of groundwater
wells has been a problem in the area. With current surface treatment capacity and safe use of
Housing Needs Assessment
City of Modesto Housing Element April 27, 2004
2- 6
groundwater, water capacity can support up to 213,000 residents. 2 The available potable
surface and groundwater supplies would be short of water demand by about 56 million
gallons per day, assuming a 2025 population of 400,000 residents.
Agriculture is the leading industry in Stanislaus County and the San Joaquin Valley in terms
of overall value of commodities produced. According to the State Department of
Conservation, almost 2,000 acres of important farmland in Stanislaus County were converted
to urban use between 1996 and 1998, and another 822 acres were converted between 1998
and 2000, primarily due to development of housing in Modesto, Ceres, Turlock, and
Riverbank ( Figure 2- 4). 3 Much of the land immediately outside the current sphere of
influence, especially west of the City, is subject to Williamson Act farmland contracts. 4
Figure 2- 4
Stanislaus County Prime Farmland Converted to Urban Use, 1992- 2000
695 703
1,648
588
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
92- 94 94- 96 96- 98 98- 00
Acres Converted
Source: California Department of Conservation web site, 2002.
2 City of Modesto. Final General Plan Master Environmental Impact Report. March, 2003.
3 California Department of Conservation. Farmland Mapping and Monitoring Program. 2000 Field Report: Stanislaus
County ( East and West). August, 2001.
4 City of Modesto. Final General Plan Master Environmental Impact Report. March, 2003.
Housing Needs Assessment
City of Modesto Housing Element April 27, 2004
2- 7
Visions for the Future
In response to these critical local issues, the Modesto Urban Area General Plan is structured
to guide growth without taxing infrastructure, to consider environmental impacts, and to
provide for economic growth and development. The overriding mission statement of the
Modesto Urban Area General Plan states:
The Modesto Urban Area General Plan addresses the collective challenges of
the future. The Urban Area General Plan presents a blueprint for the
preservation of Modesto’s quality of life while providing direction for the
growth of business and industry to meet the needs of the future generations in
the Modesto community.
In addition, the General Plan focuses on the following critical issues: 5
Employment opportunities
More comprehensive planning
Defining Modesto’s character
Reducing automobile traffic impacts
Maintaining older neighborhoods and upgrading unsafe neighborhoods
Integrating new neighborhoods into the urban pattern
Agricultural land preservation
Environmental concerns
Local issues are also addressed by goals identified in the City’s Consolidated Plan and
Annual Action Plan that guide the use of federal entitlement grants for housing and
community development purposes. 6
City Council Goals
Promote economic development, including job training
Provide capital improvements in low- and moderate- income neighborhoods
Encourage Welfare to work initiatives including child care, transportation,
emergency food provision, and homeless prevention
Community priorities ( developed in community meetings throughout Modesto)
Promote economic development and jobs
Provide street improvements
Ensure traffic safety
Facilitate neighborhood revitalization and clean up
Assist and promote neighborhood- based non- profit organizations
5 City of Modesto. Urban Area General Plan. April, 1997.
6 Goals are included in the City of Modesto Parks, Recreation, and Neighborhoods Department’s Consolidated Annual
Performance and Evaluation Report for Fiscal Year 2000- 2001, September 2001.
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City of Modesto Housing Element April 27, 2004
2- 8
Regional Issues
Cities in Stanislaus County and the unincorporated areas are expected to experience lower
population growth rates compared to Modesto. The lower growth rates anticipated for the
County and smaller cities are partly a function of regional economic forecasts and partly a
function of growth management policy.
Population growth is limited by the County to protect agricultural resources threatened by
expanding cities and to maintain the small- town, rural character of unincorporated
communities. 7 Growth projections recently adopted by Stan COG reflect this desire to direct
growth into the urbanized communities. Growth projections are higher for Modesto ( 5.32
percent annually) 8 than for the County ( 3.49 percent) and are much higher than for the
unincorporated portions of the County ( 0.35 percent). Directing growth to appropriate
geographic areas within Stanislaus County is made more difficult by the evolving residential
and employment relationships with Bay Area communities.
Bay Area Housing Crisis
The San Francisco Bay Area is adjacent to Stanislaus County to the west. The expansion of
the Bay Area economy during the 1990s attracted workers from all over the country and
around the world, creating a high demand for housing. The internet business expansion and
high- tech sector created a generation of sudden wealth that pushed the housing prices to new
heights.
Over the last several years, housing prices have increased dramatically in the Bay Area,
while the cost of housing in Stanislaus County has remained relatively affordable ( Figures 2-
5 and 2- 6). As shown in Table 2- 2, median home prices in East Bay counties increased
dramatically between 1990 and 2000 ( in constant dollars), while the median home price in
Stanislaus County increased by only one percent.
Table 2- 2
Median Home Values in 1990 and 2000 - East Bay Counties and Stanislaus County
Median Home Value
County
1990 2000 % Change
1990 – 2000
Alameda County $ 227,200 $ 303,100 33%
Contra Costa County $ 219,400 $ 267,800 22%
San Francisco County $ 298,900 $ 396,400 33%
San Mateo $ 343,900 $ 469,200 36%
Santa Clara County $ 289,400 $ 446,400 54%
Stanislaus County $ 124,300 $ 125,300 1%
Source: U. S. Census, 1990 and 2000.
7 Sellers, Chip. Stanislaus County Council of Governments. Personal communications, October 1, 2002.
8 The Modesto General Plan Master EIR presents a significantly lower growth projection than Stan COG. See discussion
on page 2- 21.
Housing Needs Assessment
City of Modesto Housing Element April 27, 2004
2- 9
As Bay Area workers continue to seek affordable housing in the San Joaquin Valley region,
housing prices in Stanislaus County have soared. Since 2000, the median home price in
Stanislaus County has increased by 35 percent and the median home price in Modesto by 37
percent, while the median price in San Francisco County increased by 10 percent and in
Santa Clara County by 7 percent. 9 Essentially, the housing crisis that originated in the
Silicon Valley and Bay Area has shifted eastward to the San Joaquin Valley.
Figure 2- 5
Median Home Value, California Counties, 2000
9 Data from the California Association of Realtors generated using real estate database services. Data includes a mixture of
new and existing sales and both condos and single- family units.
Housing Needs Assessment
City of Modesto Housing Element April 27, 2004
2- 10
Figure 2- 6
Median Rent, California Counties, 2000
Average wages for Bay Area workers have increased in tandem with the cost of living,
making Stanislaus County homes inexpensive to those with jobs in Silicon Valley and other
Bay Area employment centers. Many who seek affordable housing are willing to make the
long commute between the Bay Area and Stanislaus County. The California Department of
Transportation estimates that approximately 23,000 Stanislaus County residents make this
long distance commute. 10 Trips over the Altamont Pass ( the principal roadway between the
San Joaquin Valley and the Bay Area) have increased by 400 percent since 1971, from
29,000 to 117,000.11
The rising demand for housing in Modesto is driven in part by commuters from the Bay
Area. With higher wages, Bay Area workers have the purchasing power to pay higher rents
and high prices for homes, pushing the cost of housing in Modesto to levels beyond the reach
of many existing Modesto residents. 12 The City intends, through the housing element
process, the HCD- administered five- county Inter Regional Partnership, and other policy
planning and implementation, to accommodate a more balanced allocation of local jobs and
local housing.
10 Stan COG. Regional Housing Needs Assessment. 2002. Page 22.
11 Ibid.
12 Nancy Cook, Executive Director of Community Housing and Shelter Services. Personal Communications, October 28,
2002; Dee Smith, Fair Housing Specialist. Personal Communications, October 28, 2002.
Data Source: U. S. Census, 2000.
Housing Needs Assessment
City of Modesto Housing Element April 27, 2004
2- 11
C. REGIONAL POPULATION AND ECONOMIC
CONTEXT
Modesto generally is considered part of the San Joaquin Valley, which follows the San
Joaquin River from Kern County in the south to San Joaquin County in the north, also
including the counties of Tulare, Kings, Fresno, Madera, Merced, and Stanislaus. With
approximately 3.3 million residents as of 2000, the major economic activity in the region is
agriculture, though in some parts of the valley, areas of job growth are not in farming. 13
Stanislaus County had 447,000 residents as of 2000, and the population is projected by Stan
COG to grow to over 826,000 by 2025, an increase of approximately 84 percent ( Table 2- 3).
Nearly all of this growth ( 97 percent) is to be directed to the County’s incorporated cities in
efforts to preserve the rich agricultural resources.
Table 2- 3
San Joaquin Valley Counties, 2000 Population
County 2000 Population
Madera 123,109
Kings 129,461
Merced 210,554
Tulare 368,021
Stanislaus 446,997
San Joaquin 563,598
Kern 661,645
Fresno 799,407
Total 3,302,792
Source: 2000 U. S. Census.
In the 2000 Cities/ County Visioning Project conducted by Stanislaus County and its
incorporated cities, several visions, goals, and actions were articulated in meetings with city
and County leaders. The Countywide Visioning Project involved government officials, local
business leaders, and educators in a three- year visioning process. The purpose of the process
was to create a vision for the future of Stanislaus County based on collaboration and
cooperation among local government bodies. 14 The first vision statement and set of actions
in that report deals with protecting agricultural land from unnecessary low- density sprawl:
Actions: The cities and County of Stanislaus will adopt general plans, policies and
agreements that will achieve the following:
1. More compact and clearly defined urban boundaries that avoid unnecessary
conversion of farmlands.
13 City of Modesto. Analysis of Impediments to Fair Housing. May 1996. Page 10.
14 County of Stanislaus web site. http:// www. co. stanislaus. ca. us/ visionproject. pdf. 2002.
Housing Needs Assessment
City of Modesto Housing Element April 27, 2004
2- 12
2. Protection of farmland outside the urban boundaries.
3. Expansion of city limits to include urbanized unincorporated areas that are
substantially surrounded by a city.
4. Compact urban development which encourages redevelopment of blighted areas,
“ in- fill” development of vacant and underutilized land, and a variety of affordable
housing.
5. Urban limit lines, providing for areas of open space, agriculture, very low density,
rural development, or green belts in which urban development cannot occur.
6. Tax and revenue policies that will support and encourage good land use decisions.
7. Transportation policies that support and implement the land use vision.
Housing, Households, and Household Types
Overall, the region is similar to California relative to the distribution of household types.
However, the San Joaquin Valley’s proportion of Hispanic persons is approximately 7
percentage points higher than the proportion of Hispanics in California, and the region has a
proportion of persons under age 18 that is approximately 7 percentage points higher than the
State as a whole. 15 Corresponding to the proportion of children, the representation of family
households, as a proportion of total households, is approximately 7 percentage points higher
in the region compared to California as a whole.
Different household types have different housing needs and different homeownership rates.
According to the State Department of Housing and Community Development ( HCD), the
demographic characteristics of the San Joaquin Valley region will result in an incremental
demand for homeownership in the region that will exceed the incremental demand for rental
housing by more than 50 percent between 1997 and 2020.16 The share of owner- occupied
housing in the region is greater by 1.4 percentage points than Modesto, and is greater than
that in California by 3.2 percentage points ( Table 2- 4). Among counties in the region, the
demand for homeownership will be strongest in Madera and Stanislaus counties and weakest
in Kings and Merced counties, according to HCD.
15 U. S. Census, 2000.
16 Department of Housing and Community Development. Housing Production Needs, 1997- 2020. 2000.
Housing Needs Assessment
City of Modesto Housing Element April 27, 2004
2- 13
Table 2- 4
Housing Tenure in San Joaquin Valley, Modesto, and California
San Joaquin Valley
Tenure Number
Regional
Percentage
Modesto
Percentage California
Owner- occupied housing units 620,540 60.1% 58.7% 57%
Renter- occupied housing units 412,600 39.9% 41.3% 43%
Source: U. S. Census, 2000.
Household Income
The San Joaquin Valley has lower median incomes than does California as a whole, but also
has a much lower cost of living than many regions in the State. Modesto’s median household
income is approximately 10 percent more than the San Joaquin Valley region but 15 percent
lower than the State’s. Of the income categories summarized in Table 2- 5, the region lags
behind California most significantly in the $ 100,000 – $ 149,000 range. More importantly, as
shown in Table 2- 6, compared to the East Bay counties, median income in the San Joaquin
Valley is approximately 35 percent lower than Alameda County ($ 55,946), 51 percent lower
than Santa Clara County ($ 74,335), 48 percent lower than San Mateo County ($ 70,819), 34
percent lower than San Francisco County ($ 55,221), and 42 percent lower than Contra Costa
County ($ 63,675). These disparities in income affect local residents’ ability to compete with
East Bay workers for housing in the region.
Table 2- 5
1999 Household Incomes: California, San Joaquin Valley, and Modesto
Income in 1999 Regional
%
Modesto
% California
Less than $ 10,000 11.1% 8.9% 8%
$ 10,000 to $ 14,999 7.6% 7.2% 6%
$ 15,000 to $ 24,999 15.2% 13.6% 12%
$ 25,000 to $ 34,999 13.8% 13.5% 11%
$ 35,000 to $ 49,999 16.6% 17.6% 15%
$ 50,000 to $ 74,999 18.1% 19.7% 19%
$ 75,000 to $ 99,999 8.9% 9.9% 12%
$ 100,000 to $ 149,999 5.9% 6.8% 10%
$ 150,000 to $ 199,999 1.4% 1.4% 3%
Median Household Income ($) $ 36,638 $ 40,394 $ 47,493
Source: U. S. Census, 2000.
Housing Needs Assessment
City of Modesto Housing Element April 27, 2004
2- 14
Table 2- 6
Median Household Income in Bay Area Counties
and San Joaquin Valley Region
County Median Household
Income
Compare with San
Joaquin Valley
Alameda $ 55,946 35% higher
Santa Clara $ 74,335 51% higher
San Mateo $ 70,819 48% higher
San Francisco $ 55,221 34% higher
Contra Costa $ 63,675 42% higher
Source: U. S. Census, 2000.
Employment
Current Employment Characteristics
As one of the most productive agricultural areas in the world, the central valley of California
produces more fruits, vegetables, and nuts than any region of comparable size in the United
States ( with more than 7 million acres under irrigation). Most of the central valley’s
agricultural activity is located in the San Joaquin Valley, where agriculture accounts for
approximately 32 percent of the total income and 37 percent of the employment. 17
Employment in the San Joaquin Valley has less representation in management and
professional occupations than California, and more representation in farming, fishing, and
fishing industries ( Table 2- 7). Dairy production, fruit and nut harvest, poultry, and cattle
production are the most prevalent types of agriculture in the County. 18 Except for fruit and
nut harvest that may have some influence on seasonal employment, dairy production,
poultry, and cattle production are year- round operations that typically do not rely on migrant
farm labor.
Table 2- 7
Occupational Distribution in Modesto, Region, California
Occupation Regional % Modesto % California %
Management, Professional 27.2% 28.4% 36%
Service 16.2% 15.9% 15%
Sales, Office 25.0% 27.7% 27%
Farming, fishing, forestry 6.8% 1.3% 1%
Construction, extraction 9.9% 10.6% 8%
Production, transportation 15.0% 16.1% 13%
Source: U. S. Census, 2000.
17 Employment Development Department. San Joaquin Valley Employment, 1998.
18 Employment Development Department County Snapshots, 2001.
Housing Needs Assessment
City of Modesto Housing Element April 27, 2004
2- 15
Stanislaus County has a higher share of agricultural related employment compared to the
State as a whole. According to the State Employment Development Department, in
Stanislaus County, the share of farm services jobs has increased while the share of farm
production jobs has decreased over the past ten years ( Figure 2- 7). Farm production jobs as a
total of all California employment has also decreased over the same period. Farm services
are those that support farming, and tend to be less seasonal and higher paying than farm
production jobs.
Figure 2- 7
Farming Share of Total Employment, Stanislaus County and California
0.00%
1.00%
2.00%
3.00%
4.00%
5.00%
6.00%
7.00%
8.00%
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
Stanislaus County Farm
Services
Stanislaus County Farm
Production Employment
California Farm Services
Employment
California Farm Production
Source: California Employment Development Department web site, 2002.
Regional Jobs- Housing Balance
Assessing the spatial relationship between jobs and housing is not normally relevant at the
regional level, where jobs- housing balance is often assumed. However, given the relatively
high cost of housing and the concentration of jobs ( especially new jobs) in the Bay Area
relative to the surrounding regions, the regional distribution of jobs and housing has
important planning and quality of life implications. An imbalance of jobs and housing
creates issues with traffic congestion, air quality, water quality, fiscal disparity, and housing
affordability.
Both Modesto and Stanislaus counties have a higher percentage of residents working in
another county compared with California overall, with correspondingly high average
commute times ( Table 2- 8). The counties of San Joaquin, Merced, Madera, and Kings also
have a high percentage of out- of- county commuters. As shown in Table 2- 9, commute times
in Modesto have increased between 1990 and 2000, with drastic increases in the number of
Housing Needs Assessment
City of Modesto Housing Element April 27, 2004
2- 16
people commuting 20 minutes or more to work ( 47 percent increase). However, the number
of people commuting less than 5 minutes to work also increased by 13 percent.
Table 2- 8
Commuting in California, San Joaquin Valley Region, Modesto
Workers 16 years and over
Geographic Area
Mean
Commute
Time
( minutes)
% Worked
Outside
County of
Residence
Modesto 25.7 19.5
Stanislaus 26.8 20.9
California 27.7 17.1
Fresno 22.2 7.4
Kern 23.2 6.4
Kings 20.8 20.7
Madera 26.3 31.2
Merced 26.0 25.0
Tulare 21.9 11.8
San Joaquin 29.2 23.5
Source: U. S. Census, 2000.
Table 2- 9
Modesto Average Commute Times, 1990 and 2000
Travel Time to Work 1990 % 2000 %
% Change
1990- 2000
Less than 5 Minutes 1,953 3% 2,208 3% 13%
5 to 9 Minutes 9,216 15% 9,283 13% 1%
10 to 19 Minutes 29,789 47% 28,960 40% - 3%
20 Minutes or More 21,886 35% 32,268 44% 47%
Total 62,844 100% 72,719 100% 16%
Source: U. S. Census, 2000.
Employment and Population Projections
The region is expected to grow significantly in the future, and Modesto is expected to be one
of the leaders in both population and employment growth. Based on figures provided by
Stan COG, only the city of Tracy, located just northwest of Modesto between Stockton and
the Bay Area, is expected to have a higher average annual growth rate between 2000 and
2025, compared to Modesto. Of San Joaquin, Merced, and Stanislaus counties, Stanislaus
County is expected to have the highest annual growth, as shown in Table 2- 10.
Housing Needs Assessment
City of Modesto Housing Element April 27, 2004
2- 17
Table 2- 10
Regional Population Growth
City 2000 2010 2020
Average Annual
Growth
2000- 2025
% Change,
2000- 2025
Modesto 188,856 302,546 418,562 5.31% 133%
Ceres 34,609 47,645 60,053 3.47% 87%
Turlock 55,810 73,707 90,911 2.98% 75%
Unincorp. Stanislaus Co. 110,269 113,427 115,574 0.28% 7%
Total Stanislaus County 446,997 611,510 785,008 3.39% 85%
Merced 63,893 92,014 108,505 3.22% 81%
Unincorp. Merced Co. 70,620 84,182 106,585 2.85% 71%
Total Merced County 215,256 273,923 337,935 2.93% 73%
Lodi 57,900 63,787 69,156 1.02% 25%
Manteca 49,500 64,248 77,699 2.98% 74%
Stockton 247,400 311,033 374,631 2.57% 64%
Tracy 54,200 87,456 117,788 6.14% 153%
Unincorp. San Joaquin Co. 131,400 134,881 138,056 0.26% 7%
Total San Joaquin County 566,600 700,095 821,851 2.36% 59%
Source: Stanislaus COG, San Joaquin COG, Merced CAG.
Note: Stanislaus COG population information was amended to eliminate the projections for the years 2001- 2019. The
projections above use the average annual growth for the cities and Stanislaus County to estimate the 2005, 2010, and
2015 populations. Annual average growth for cities and counties outside of Stanislaus County were estimated using
2025 population estimates compared to 2000 populations.
The population increase anticipated by the City’s Urban Area General Plan Master
Environmental Impact Report is 390,000 by 2025, while the estimated holding capacity of
the planning area is 400,000 ( Table 2- 11).
Table 2- 11
Modesto Growth Capacity
Area Population Employment Housing
Units
Single- Family
Units
Multi- Family
Units
Planned Urbanizing
Area
148,625 147,898 50,385 39,317 11,068
Baseline Development
Area
245,627 111,384 85,839 63,990 21,849
Redevelopment Area 5,772 44,638 2,105 193 1,912
Total 400,024 303,920 138,329 103,500 ( 75%) 34,829 ( 25%)
Source: City of Modesto, 2002.
Within the Stan COG region, employment growth is also focused on Modesto, which Stan
COG anticipates will add more jobs than the rest of the region combined. The average
annual employment growth mirrors that of population growth, as shown in Table 2- 12. The
population projections from Stan COG reflect the desire to accommodate a more balanced
geographic match between jobs and population growth. The County’s total employment in
2020 is projected to be 306,698, which represents an 80 percent increase over the current
Housing Needs Assessment
City of Modesto Housing Element April 27, 2004
2- 18
level. Not including Modesto, the County is expected to have just a 43 percent increase
between 2000 and 2020, according to Stan COG figures.
Table 2- 12
Employment Growth in Stan COG Region, 1990- 2025
Employment 1990 1999 2020 2025
Target
% Annual
Increase,
1999- 2025
Ceres 9,900 12,128 22,479 24,233 3.84%
Hughson 1,228 1,670 3,067 3,264 3.67%
Modesto 65,325 75,645 171,517 180,377 5.33%
Newman 1,397 1,883 3,337 3,531 3.37%
Oakdale 4,519 4,923 8,863 9,341 3.45%
Patterson 3,087 3,846 6,839 7,314 3.47%
Riverbank 2,944 4,334 7,722 8,305 3.52%
Turlock 16,714 19,766 34,623 37,185 3.39%
Waterford 1,503 1,849 3,343 3,559 3.56%
Unincorporated 34,993 42,082 44,908 45,901 0.35%
Total County 141,610 170,125 306,698 323,010 3.46%
Source: Stan COG, 2002.
Regional Economic Development Trends and Initiatives
The economic conditions in the region are tied to national trends and policy, statewide
economic events and legislation, and many other factors. However, some characteristics of
the region set it apart economically from the rest of California and the nation, and these
economic characteristics have important implications for housing policy.
The cost of living in the Valley is lower than the Bay Area and other parts of metropolitan
California. Agriculture remains the highest valued sector of the economy, and agricultural
trends can have ripple effects through the rest of the economy. Due in part to the disparity in
cost of living between the Valley and the nearby Bay Area, traffic congestion is worsening,
especially during peak hours, and is impacting the ability of many regional agencies to
provide adequate transportation infrastructure for this expanding demand. This traffic
condition is viewed as adversely impacting economic development.
In the Central Valley, some of the key economic trends include: 19
Job growth that has eclipsed that of California as a whole, but is slower than labor
force growth20
19 Great Valley Center. Assessing the Region Via Indicators. May, 1999.
20 Job growth and labor force growth are similar, but not identical. The labor force may grow, for example, as large
numbers of young people enter the labor force, or as men or women that were previously full- time homemakers, seek
employment. This would not necessarily be associated with job growth.
Housing Needs Assessment
City of Modesto Housing Element April 27, 2004
2- 19
Unemployment that is consistently higher than the rest of the State due to seasonal
labor
Job growth led by addition of service jobs
In Stanislaus County, some of the key economic trends include:
Decline in agricultural production jobs
Job growth in service sector ( Table 2- 13)
Table 2- 13
Stanislaus County Occupations with Job Growth, 1999- 2006
Annual Averages
Occupation 1999 2006
Absolute
Change
Percent
Change
Retail Sales 5,280 6,420 1,140 21.6
Cashiers 3,870 4,810 940 24.3
Clerks 3,200 3,810 610 19.1
Food Service 2,580 3,110 530 20.5
Managers, Executives 3,320 3,830 510 15.4
Truck Drivers, Light 2,160 2,620 460 21.3
Teacher Aides 1,550 1,960 410 26.5
Waiters and Waitresses 1,910 2,310 400 20.9
Truck Drivers, Heavy 2,350 2,730 380 16.2
Elementary School Teachers 3,220 3,580 360 11.2
Assembly Workers 1,130 1,430 300 26.5
Source: Employment Development Department, 2002.
The Stanislaus County Board of Supervisors established the Stanislaus County Workforce
Investment Board ( WIB), charged with strategic planning and policy oversight of a system
for workforce development. Stanislaus County provides access to Workforce Development
Services to employers, job and information seekers, serving an average of 5000 customers a
month per center. Partners are Stanislaus County ( represented by the Community Service
Agency and Department of Employment and Training), the Stanislaus County Economic
Development Corporation ( SCEDCO), and the local office of the California Employment
Development Department.
Housing Needs Assessment
City of Modesto Housing Element April 27, 2004
2- 20
D. LOCAL POPULATION AND ECONOMIC
CHARACTERISTICS
Population
As of 2000, Modesto’s total population was 188,856, representing an average annual increase
of 3.8 percent between 1980 and 2000 and 1.5 percent between 1990 and 2000.21 Modesto’s
15 percent increase in population between 1990 and 2000 nearly mirrored the 14 percent
population increase in California during the same period. The 2002 population is estimated
at 199,000, a 5.4 percent increase over the 2000 population.
According to the most recent population projections adopted by Stan COG, population
growth is expected to increase dramatically over the next 20 years, compared to the last 20
years. Population growth in Modesto is also anticipated to be relatively greater than
surrounding communities, as shown in Table 2- 14. Between 1950 and 1990, Modesto’s
share of the County population increased from 14 percent to 45 percent. 22 As of 2000, the
Modesto population was approximately 42 percent of the County total and according to Stan
COG is expected to increase to more than 53 percent of the County total by 2025. Overall,
Modesto is projected by Stan COG to account for more than 66 percent of the County
population growth between 2000 and 2025. However, the City’s General Plan Master
Environmental Impact Report ( MEIR) projects a more realistic outlook of growth given the
City’s infrastructure and resource constraints and the desire to maintain and enhance the
quality of life for the community. According to the MEIR, population in Modesto may reach
400,000 by 2025, as compared to the Stan COG’s projection of 418,562 by 2020.
In general, Modesto became more ethnically diverse between 1990 and 2000 ( see Table 2-
15). The White population decreased as a share of the City population from 73 percent to 60
percent during the census period. While the African American population increased by
approximately 66 percent, compared to only 4 percent increase for California as a whole, the
overall representation of African Americans in Modesto is low. The Hispanic population
increased significantly by 79 percent, while for California the increase was approximately 43
percent. The number of Asians and Pacific Islanders, however, decreased in Modesto despite
a 39 percent increase statewide.
Cultural practices, which are often related to ethnic backgrounds, have implications for
housing policy. It is important, as Modesto becomes more diverse, for the evolving set of
housing programs and policies to be attuned to any special needs of different populations,
and for the City to take necessary steps to involve residents of different backgrounds in the
Housing Element planning process. The large Hispanic increase highlights a special need to
ensure that housing services are accessible to Spanish- speaking individuals.
21 U. S. Census, 1980, 1990, and 2000.
22 City of Modesto. Analysis of Impediments to Fair Housing. May 1996. Page 10.
Housing Needs Assessment
City of Modesto Housing Element April 27, 2004
2- 21
Table 2- 14
Modesto and Surrounding Communities Populations, 1980- 2020
Jurisdiction 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
#
Change
1990-
2000
%
Change
1990-
2000
%
Change
2000-
2010
%
Change
2000-
2020
Modesto 106,963 164,730 188,856 302,546 418,562 24,126 15% 60% 122%
Turlock 26,287 42,224 55,810 73,707 90,911 13,586 32% 32% 63%
Ceres 13,281 26,413 34,609 47,645 60,053 8,196 31% 38% 74%
Stockton 149,779 210,943 243,771 311,033 374,631 32,828 16% 28% 54%
Merced 36,499 56,155 63,893 92,014 108,505 7,738 14% 44% 70%
Lodi 35,221 51,874 56,999 63,787 69,156 5,125 10% 12% 21%
Source: Stanislaus COG, San Joaquin COG, Merced CAG.
Note: Stanislaus COG population information was amended to eliminate the projections for the years 2001- 2019. The
projections above use the adopted annual increases for the cities and Stanislaus County to estimate the 2005, 2010,
and 2015 populations. Annual increases for communities outside of Stanislaus County were estimated using 2025
population estimates compared to 2000 populations.
Table 2- 15
Race and Ethnicity in Modesto and California, 1900 and 2000
Modesto California
1990 2000
Change
’ 90-‘ 00
Change
’ 90-‘ 00
Race/ Ethnicity # % # % # % %
White 119,529 73% 112,466 60% - 7,063 - 6% - 7%
African American 4,234 3% 7,013 4% 2,779 66% 4%
Native American 1,416 1% 1,435 1% 19 1% - 3%
Asian or Pacific Islander 12,384 8% 11,956 6% - 428 - 3% 39%
Hispanic 26,920 16% 48,310 26% 21,390 79% 43%
Other 247 0% 7,676 4% 7,429 N/ A 28%
Total 164,730 100% 188,856 100% 24,126 15% 14%
Source: U. S. Census, 2000.
Note: Other in 2000 includes those that cite two or more races. N/ A = not applicable.
Housing Needs Assessment
City of Modesto Housing Element April 27, 2004
2- 22
Concentration of Minority Population
Census data is used to identify portions of the City where, due to large numbers of people
with particular ethnic backgrounds, certain services may be necessary to ensure an adequate
provision of housing. In areas where the City’s minority population is concentrated,
provision of housing information and services in different languages may be necessary, and
housing discrimination issues may be particularly important.
In Modesto, areas southwest of Downtown and in general southwest of the Highway 99
corridor have higher concentrations of minority households ( Figure 2- 8). The area northwest
of Paradise Road and southwest of Highway 99 has minority concentrations of more than 60
percent, and is an area with older housing stock, lower home values, lower rental costs, and
lower median incomes. In the eastern part of the City, east of El Vista Avenue and near the
southern City boundary is another area of relatively high minority concentration. Most of the
northern and northeastern portions of the City have low minority concentrations – 30 percent
or less.
Household Types
A “ household” is any group of people occupying a housing unit. Though most people think
of a household as a family, there are many other types of households, including single
persons living alone, families living together, or unrelated persons who share living quarters.
Persons living in retirement or convalescent homes, dormitories, or other group living
situations are not considered households. Both household size and household type are
important to consider when planning for housing since different types and sizes of
households require different types of housing and potentially different community services.
Modesto had approximately 58,000 households in 1990 and 65,000 households in 2000,
representing an increase of 12 percent, close to California’s 11 percent increase ( Table 2- 16).
Surprisingly, Modesto had a fairly large increase in married couples with no children ( 11
percent), but numeric and proportional decreases in married couples with children ( 739, 4
percent). This pattern is somewhat unusual since California had a 13 percent increase in
families with children during the same period. Married couples without children generally
have different housing needs compared to those families with children.
108
132
99
99
Claus Rd
Tully Rd
Claribel Rd
Coffee Rd
Sylvan Ave
Oakdale Rd
Mitchell Rd
219
Bangs Ave
Carpenter Rd
Rumble Rd
Woodland Ave
Sisk Rd
Standiford Ave
PARADISE RD
9th St
Floyd Ave
Dale Rd
Whitmore Ave
Crows Landing Rd
Milnes Rd
Parker Rd
Terminal Ave
Snyder Ave
Whitmore Ave
La Loma Ave.
Briggsmore Ave
El Vista Ave
Hatch Rd
Pelandale Ave
Rumble Rd
Mitchell Rd.
Central Ave
Bodem St
Paradise Rd
Ceres
Empire
Salida
Riverbank
4.02
15
31
5.08
20.02
5.01
30.01
6.01
21
9.12
13
22
14
19
24
18
5.04
4.04 4.03
6.02
5.05 5.06
8.01
25.01
23.01
11
5.07
12
9.05
20.04
9.06
5.03
28.02
17
8.05
16.03
10.01
8.03
9.07
9.08
9.10
25.02
27.02
9.09
28.03
20.03
27.01
23.02
10.02
8.06
26.04
8.07
9.11
26.02
26.05
16.01
26.03
3.03 3.04
16.04
City of Modesto Housing Element
Concentration of Minority
Households
GIS maps prepared by: Cotton/ Bridges/ Associates
Source: City of Modesto and 2000 Census ( SF- 1 and SF- 3)
Figure 2- 8
2- 23
Ethnic and Racial Concentrations ( Block Group)
0 0.5 1 2 3 4
Miles
9.10 Census Tracts ( 2000)
County Islands
City Boundary
City of Modesto Ethnic and Racial Average is 30.4%.
Ethnic and Racial Composition includes Hispanic, African- American,
Asian, Pacific Islander, American Indian, and Two or More Races.
0.0% - 30.4% Concentration
30.5% - 60.8% Moderate Concentration
60.9% - 100% High Concentration
Housing Needs Assessment
City of Modesto Housing Element April 27, 2004
2- 24
Table 2- 16
Household Types
Modesto California
1990 2000
Change
’ 90 – ‘ 00
Change
’ 90 – ‘ 00
Household Type # % # % # % %
Families 41,894 72% 46,642 72% 4,748 11% 11%
Married w/ Children 17,758 31% 17,019 26% - 739 - 4% 13%
Married No Children 14,829 26% 16,432 25% 1,603 11% 3%
Other Families 9,307 16% 13,191 20% 3,884 42% N/ A
Non- Families 16,064 28% 18,317 28% 2,253 14% 11%
Singles 12,789 22% 14,633 23% 1,844 14% 12%
Other Non- Families 3,275 6% 3,684 6% 409 12% N/ A
Total Households 57,958 100% 64,959 100% 7,001 12% 11%
Avg. Household Size 2.84 2.86 0.02 1% 3%
Avg. Family Size 3.29 3.36 0.07 2% 3%
Source: U. S. Census 1990 and 2000.
Note: N/ A = not available
The group that experienced the most significant growth is “ other” families, comprising of
various combination of family members living together such as single- parent households,
with or without extended family members, and unrelated persons. Single- parent households
comprised 13 percent of the Modesto households in 2000, an increase from 9 percent in
1990, and represented approximately two- thirds of the “ other families” in 2000. Specifically,
among the single- parent households, 74 percent are female- headed households. In general,
the income- earning ability and per- capita income of single- parent households, and
particularly for female- headed households, are lower than other family types. A community
with a large proportion of single- parent households would need increased attention to
affordable housing and child care services.
These trends and patterns that occurred in the 1990s resulted in only a slight increase in
average family size ( by 2 percent) and a slight increase in average household size ( by 1
percent). Overall, Modesto’s average household and average family size experienced smaller
increases and were still smaller than those of the County ( 3.03 and 3.47, respectively) and
those of California ( 2.87 and 3.43, respectively) in 2000. The 2002 average household size is
estimated by the California Department of Finance to be approximately 2.9 persons per
household ( Table 2- 17). The prevalence of smaller households in Modesto suggests that the
City‘ s housing needs would be skewed toward smaller single- family homes, condominiums,
townhomes, and rental housing, compared to the County and California as a whole.
Housing Needs Assessment
City of Modesto Housing Element April 27, 2004
2- 25
Table 2- 17
Modesto 2002 Estimates
Total Total Households Vacancy Rate Average Household Size
198,633 69,848 3.30 2.9
Source: California Department of Finance, 2001.
Tenure
Modesto is a family- oriented community, where most prefer owning their own homes to
renting. Homeownership rates in Modesto and Stanislaus County were higher than
California as a whole, especially for the 25- to 34- year- old range ( Table 2- 18). 23 People in
this age range are usually first- time homebuyers with smaller household size. In 2000,
homeownership rates continue to be higher for Modesto and Stanislaus County residents, but
the differences compared to California are less pronounced than in 1990.
Table 2- 18
Tenure by Age
Modesto
Age of Householder Number
Rate of Tenure
by
Householder
Age
California
Rate of Tenure
by
Householder
Age
Stanislaus
County Rate of
Tenure by
Householder
Age
Total: 65,103 100% 100% 100%
Owner occupied: 38,316 59% 57% 62%
Householder 15 to 24 years 455 14% 11% 17%
Householder 25 to 34 years 4,266 39% 31% 43%
Householder 35 to 44 years 8,968 57% 54% 60%
Householder 45 to 54 years 9,322 66% 66% 69%
Householder 55 to 59 years 3,453 74% 72% 76%
Householder 60 to 64 years 2,783 76% 74% 76%
Householder 65 to 74 years 4,804 74% 76% 77%
Householder 75 to 84 years 3,480 72% 75% 75%
Householder 85 years and over 785 56% 66% 66%
Renter occupied: 26,787 41% 43% 38%
Householder 15 to 24 years 2,803 86% 89% 83%
Householder 25 to 34 years 6,725 61% 69% 57%
Householder 35 to 44 years 6,754 43% 46% 40%
Householder 45 to 54 years 4,727 34% 34% 31%
Householder 55 to 59 years 1,222 26% 28% 24%
Householder 60 to 64 years 896 24% 26% 24%
Householder 65 to 74 years 1,710 26% 24% 23%
Householder 75 to 84 years 1,339 28% 25% 25%
Householder 85 years and over 611 44% 34% 34%
Source: U. S. Census, 2000.
23 Department of Housing and Community Development, Statewide Housing Plan, 1997.
Housing Needs Assessment
City of Modesto Housing Element April 27, 2004
2- 26
One way to determine demand for different types of housing relative to the supply is to look
at prices and affordability. Table 2- 19 shows housing costs as a percentage of income ( which
effectively controls for different costs of living) for Modesto, the San Joaquin Valley region,
and California as a whole. Overall, a higher proportion of households in Modesto pay more
than 30 percent of their income on housing than those in San Joaquin Valley. Specifically,
Modesto has a higher percentage of renter- households using more than 35 percent of their
household income for housing, while the share of owner- households paying more than 35
percent of their income for housing is lower than for California as a whole. This suggests
that, as of 2000, affordable rental housing was more difficult to find than for- sale housing in
the City.
Compared to East Bay counties such as Alameda, the proportions of households paying more
than 30 percent of income on housing is higher for renter- households ( 45 percent) and lower
for owner- households ( 28 percent) in Modesto. For example, the proportion of households
expending more than 30 percent of household income on housing is 31 percent for owners
and 41 percent for renters in Alameda County, and 30 percent for owners in Contra Costa
County. In 1990, 46 percent of renters and 26 percent of owners paid more than 30 percent
of their incomes on housing in Modesto. The increase in owner housing cost burden and
persistence in rental housing cost burden may be due to an influx of commuting households
with higher household incomes, pushing up the housing prices.
Table 2- 19
Housing Costs as Percentage of Household Income
Percentage of Household Income
Spent on Housing Modesto San Joaquin
Valley California
Rental Housing
Less than 15 percent 13.9% 15.0% 14.6%
15 to 19 percent 14.5% 13.3% 13.6%
20 to 24 percent 12.4% 12.0% 13.1%
25 to 29 percent 11.3% 9.9% 11.1%
30 to 34 percent 8.0% 7.7% 8.2%
35 percent or more 36.6% 34.8% 34.1%
Owner- Occupied Housing
Less than 15 percent 29.1% 29.0% 28.0%
15 to 19 percent 16.2% 15.7% 14.6%
20 to 24 percent 14.4% 15.6% 14.1%
25 to 29 percent 11.2% 11.9% 11.3%
30 to 34 percent 7.6% 7.1% 8.0%
35 percent or more 20.7% 20.1% 23.2%
Source: U. S. Census, 2000.
Housing Needs Assessment
City of Modesto Housing Element April 27, 2004
2- 27
Household Incomes
Among the many factors influencing housing opportunity, household income is one of the
most important. With limited household income, trade- offs among basic life needs can
constrain housing choice and opportunity. Income levels are highly variable among
households and affect choices such as tenure, housing type, and location.
Modesto’s income levels tend to be higher than in the region and lower than in the State,
while poverty levels tend to be higher than statewide levels and lower than the region ( Table
2- 20). The region’s higher proportion of lower- income households and households living in
poverty may be an indicator of the high level of agricultural employment in the region.
Overall, female- headed families are more impacted by poverty than other family types. As
discussed before, the group experiencing the largest growth in Modesto is “ other families,”
which is comprised primarily with single- parent households, particularly female- headed
households. The need for housing and services for female- headed households with children
in Modesto is on the rise.
Table 2- 20
Income in Modesto, Region, State
Geographic
Area
Median
Household
Income
Median
Family
Income
Per Capita
Income
% below
Poverty
Level
( Families)
% below
Poverty
Level
( Female-
Headed
Families)
% below
Poverty
Level
( Individuals)
Modesto $ 40,394 $ 45,681 $ 17,797 12.2% 29.6% 15.7%
Region $ 36,638 $ 40,140 $ 15,541 16.0% 36.5% 20.5%
California $ 47,493 $ 53,025 $ 22,711 10.6% 25.0% 14.2%
Source: U. S. Census, 2000.
As shown in Table 2- 21, owner- households are better represented in the higher income
categories than are renter- households. Elderly renter- households and large family renters are
particularly concentrated in the extremely low and low- income categories ( less than 50
percent of Area Median Income). Without adequate rental housing choice and affordability,
lower- income households may experience overcrowding or have to assume a housing cost
burden, among other problems.
Housing Needs Assessment
City of Modesto Housing Element April 27, 2004
2- 28
Table 2- 21
Income Level by Tenure
Income Level ( as % of Area Household Type Median Income)
0- 30% 31- 50% 51- 80% 81- 95% 95%+ Total
Renter
Total Households 14% 20% 22% 8% 36% 100%
Elderly 19% 38% 23% 7% 12% 100%
Small Family 16% 14% 20% 9% 40% 100%
Large Family 13% 26% 27% 7% 27% 100%
Other 9% 14% 20% 8% 48% 100%
Owner
Total Households 4% 6% 11% 7% 72% 100%
Elderly 9% 15% 23% 11% 43% 100%
Small Family 2% 2% 6% 5% 85% 100%
Large Family 2% 4% 9% 9% 76% 100%
Other 4% 4% 10% 7% 75% 100%
Total 8% 11% 15% 8% 58% 100%
Source: HUD CHAS, 1993.
Low Income Target Areas
The previous information deals with income at the household level for the City as a whole.
Planning for the City’s housing needs also requires some understanding of the variability of
household incomes, housing stock, and other information at the neighborhood level. In some
cities, neighborhoods with higher concentrations of lower income households experience
deferred maintenance and instability, which can create problems related to adequate housing.
Lower- income households are more common near Modesto’s downtown and along the
Highway 99 corridor, as well as the airport area and along the Tuolumne River. Figure 2- 9
shows low- income areas of the City by Census block group, as determined by HUD. 24 These
are many of the same areas of the City that have relatively older housing stock and lower
median gross rental rates.
24 Low- Income Target Areas include block groups with more than 51 percent of the population earning no more than 80
percent of the County Median Family Income.
108
132
99
99
Claus Rd
Tully Rd
Claribel Rd
Coffee Rd
Sylvan Ave
Oakdale Rd
Mitchell Rd
219
Bangs Ave
Carpenter Rd
Rumble Rd
Woodland Ave
Sisk Rd
Standiford Ave
PARADISE RD
9th St
Floyd Ave
Dale Rd
Whitmore Ave
Crows Landing Rd
Milnes Rd
Parker Rd
Terminal Ave
Snyder Ave
Whitmore Ave
La Loma Ave.
Briggsmore Ave
El Vista Ave
Hatch Rd
Pelandale Ave
Rumble Rd
Mitchell Rd.
Central Ave
Bodem St
Paradise Rd
Ceres
Empire
Salida
Riverbank
4.02
15
31
5.08
20.02
5.01
30.01
6.01
21
9.12
13
22
14
19
24
18
5.04
4.04 4.03
6.02
5.05 5.06
8.01
25.01
23.01
11
5.07
12
9.05
20.04
9.06
5.03
28.02
17
8.05
16.03
10.01
8.03
9.07
9.08
9.10
25.02
27.02
9.09
28.03
20.03
27.01
23.02
10.02
8.06
26.04
8.07
9.11
26.02
26.05
16.01
26.03
3.03 3.04
16.04
City of Modesto Housing Element
Low- Income Target
Areas
GIS maps prepared by: Cotton/ Bridges/ Associates
Source: City of Modesto, 2000 Census ( SF- 1 and SF- 3) and
U. S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, 2000.
Figure 2- 9
2- 29
Low- Income Target Areas
Census Tracts ( 2000)
County Islands
City Boundary
9.10
0 0.5 1 2 3 4
Miles
Low- Income Target
Groups defined by
census block groups
with 51% or more low
and moderate income
population
Housing Needs Assessment
City of Modesto Housing Element April 27, 2004
2- 30
Employment
The types of jobs held by Modesto residents, as mentioned earlier, mirror those of the region
and California as a whole. During the census period ( between 1990 and 2000), service
occupations had the largest increase for Modesto residents, which is typical of the time
period for most cities in California. The proportion of Modesto residents employed in
farming and as machine operators/ laborers decreased. Overall, Modesto’s employed
population increased by 10 percent, while the overall population increased by 15 percent
( Table 2- 22). Major employers in Modesto include those associated with agriculture, health
care, and government ( Table 2- 23). These industries typically offer a large proportion of
lower- paying jobs.
Table 2- 22
Occupations of Modesto Residents, 1990 and 2000
1990 Occupation 2000 % Change
# % # % 1990 – 2000
Managerial/ Professional 16,729 24% 21,760 28% 30%
Sales, Technical, Admin. 23,274 33% 21,200 28% - 9%
Service Occupations 8,684 12% 12,206 16% 41%
Production, Craft & Repair 9,103 13% 12,349 16% 36%
Operators/ Fabricators/ Laborers 10,511 15% 8,079 11% - 23%
Farming, Forestry, and Fishery 1,362 2% 973 1% - 29%
Total Employed Residents 69,663 100% 76,567 100% 10%
Source: U. S. Census, 1990, 2000.
Note: Occupation categories changed slightly between the 1990 and 2000 Censuses.
Table 2- 23
Major Employers in Modesto
Employer Type of Services
County of Stanislaus Individual and Family Services
Doctor's Medical Center Hospitals
JM Equipment Machinery, Equipment, and Supplies
Memorial Medical Center Hospitals
Modesto Bee Newspapers
Modesto Junior College Colleges and Universities
Prompt Care- Memorial Hospital Hospitals
Raycor Division General Industrial Machinery
Save Mart Supermarkets Inc Grocery Stores
Stanislaus Food Products Preserved Fruits and Vegetables
Sysco Food Svc of Modesto Inc Groceries and Related Products
Tri Valley Growers Preserved Fruits and Vegetables
Source: Data from the California Employment Development Department.
Housing Needs Assessment
City of Modesto Housing Element April 27, 2004
2- 31
While some Modesto residents work in higher- paying occupations, many others work in the
service sector, providing essential services to residents and businesses in the community.
These residents may not be able to afford adequate housing in the City. Table 2- 24 shows
the average salary of selected jobs in Modesto. Many of these are low- paying jobs that fall
within the lower- income categories. The City is expected to see the addition of an estimated
106,000 jobs by 2020, many of which, particularly those in the service sector, will be lower
paying. Housing costs, as estimated by the median home price, have increased dramatically
– by 37 percent in Modesto between 2000 and 2002.25 As a result, homeownership is
becoming increasingly difficult to achieve for moderate- income working professionals, and
is almost out of reach for lower- income households.
Table 2- 24
Modesto Annual Salaries, Selected Occupations, 2000
Occupation
Mean
Annual Wage
% of County
Average Income
Social and Community Service Managers $ 44,140 101%
Community and Social Services Occupations $ 36,863 84%
Child, Family, and School Social Workers $ 35,377 81%
Medical and Public Health Social Workers $ 50,531 115%
Health Educators $ 23,029 52%
Social and Human Service Assistants $ 27,015 62%
Clergy $ 16,657 38%
Preschool Teachers, Except Special Education $ 22,636 52%
Special Education Teachers, Middle School $ 54,796 125%
Emergency Medical Technicians and Paramedics $ 21,345 49%
Healthcare Support Occupations $ 23,344 53%
Home Health Aides $ 19,412 44%
Nursing Aides, Orderlies, and Attendants $ 18,721 43%
Dental Assistants $ 23,403 53%
Medical Assistants $ 27,956 64%
Child Care Workers $ 17,160 39%
Total all occupations $ 30,977 71%
Source: California Employment Development Department
Note: County Median Income in 2000 was $ 43,900.
Unemployment rates in 2000 were slightly lower in Stanislaus County ( 10.4 percent) and
Modesto ( 9.3 percent) than in 1990 – 11.8 percent and 10.5 percent, respectively. As of
October 2002, the unemployment rate in Modesto ( 9.2 percent) continued to be lower than
Stanislaus County ( 10.3 percent), but higher than that for California ( 6.2 percent), though the
California data is seasonally adjusted, while the County and City data are not. 26
25 According to second quarter median home sales price data from the California Association of Realtors.
26 Employment Development Department web site, 2002.
Housing Needs Assessment
City of Modesto Housing Element April 27, 2004
2- 32
Jobs- to- Housing Ratio
Modesto’s jobs- to- households ratio is higher than that of San Joaquin County, at 1.1,
according to Stan COG estimates, though it is unclear to what extent the jobs are
geographically matched with the population ( Table 2- 25). 27 The Census identifies 76,567
employed persons in Modesto, averaging 1.12 wage- earners per household. A jobs- housing
ratio of 1.1 seems to indicate that the City does offer an adequate number of jobs. The jobs-housing
issues confronting the City seem to relate more to the spatial mismatch between the
jobs located in Modesto and the people working those jobs, as evidenced by the large number
of commuters crossing the Altamont Pass daily. Of equal concern is the mismatch between
the types of jobs offered and associated pay scales, and the costs of housing in the City.
Table 2- 25
Households and Employment, Modesto and Stanislaus County
Geographic Area Households Employment
Jobs to
Households
Ceres 10,967 12,128 1.1
Hughson 1,263 1,670 1.3
Modesto 67,959 75,645 1.1
Newman 2,047 1,883 0.9
Oakdale 5,778 4,923 0.9
Patterson 3,147 3,846 1.2
Riverbank 3,907 4,334 1.1
Turlock 18,658 19,766 1.1
Waterford 1,873 1,849 0.9
Unincorporated County 39,328 42,082 1.1
Total County 154,927 168,126 1.1
Source: Stan COG, 2002; U. S. Census, 2000.
According to Census and Stan COG figures, the number of jobs in Modesto increased more
than the housing stock or number of employed residents. The jobs- housing ratio increased
by 5 percent between 1990 and 2000 ( Table 2- 26). The City also experienced a greater
growth in residents employed in service and production/ craft/ repair occupations that tend to
pay lower wages ( refer to Table 2- 24). On one hand, the City is facing the difficult issue of
addressing the need for housing affordable to residents at these pay scales; on the other hand,
the City must diversify its employment base to offer well- paid jobs to residents and to reduce
the need for commuting to the East Bay for employment opportunities. As a community
striving to achieve a balance in housing and job opportunities, improve quality of life, and
become a more sustainable community, the City must devise and implement an economic
development strategy that works hand- in- hand with the housing strategy.
27 Stan COG. Regional Housing Needs Assessment. Appendix III. October 2002. The Stan COG estimates are for 1999
and the figures shown do not reflect the 2000 Census, but are useful in comparing jobs to household balances.
Housing Needs Assessment
City of Modesto Housing Element April 27, 2004
2- 33
Table 2- 26
Households and Employment, Modesto 1990- 2000
Year
Total
Housing
Units
Jobs in
Modesto
Jobs to
Housing
Ratio
Modesto Employed
Residents
1990 60,878 65,325 1.07 69,663
2000 67,179 75,645 1.12 76,567
Percent Change, 1990- 2000 10% 16% 5% 10%
Source: U. S. Census, 2000; Stan COG, 2002.
Local Economic Development Trends and Initiatives
As discussed above, the jobs- to- housing ratio in Modesto is improving and is better on the
aggregate level than in many other cities in the region. However, because of an increasing
number of residents who work out of the City and County, and an increasing number of
workers in Modesto who live elsewhere, traffic congestion is becoming worse, impacting the
City’s ability to provide adequate transportation infrastructure and expand economic
opportunities. The Inter- Regional Partnership ( IRP), a partnership formed in 1998 consisting
of 15 selected officials from 5 counties — Alameda, Contra Costa, San Joaquin, Santa Clara,
and Stanislaus – indicates that the most effective incentives for economic development in
job- poor areas would be those that:
1. Improve their competitive position in the marketplace by reducing the cost of off-site
improvements;
2. Improve the quality of the workforce; and/ or,
3. Reduce the time for processing local development proposals. 28
In the City, though plenty of land may be zoned to allow economic development, the cost of
providing infrastructure to this land, especially transportation infrastructure, is seen as a
constraint to development. 29 Adaptive reuse of redevelopment areas and existing buildings is
a potential mechanism for economic development with less- burdening infrastructure costs.
Modesto’s Community and Economic Development Department has several programs
intended to encourage economic activity that will benefit current and future residents:
Modesto Redevelopment Project Area Incentives
Economic Development Revolving Loan Program
Economic Development Revenue Bonds
Enterprise Designation Areas
28 King, James R. Managing the Consequences of Prosperity: A Report for the Inter- regional Partnership. January 10,
2001.
29 Linda Boston, City of Modesto Business Development Manager, personal correspondence, December 13, 2002; and, Bill
Bassett, CEO of Stanislaus Economic Development and Workforce Alliance, personal correspondence, December 12,
2002; King, James R., page i- ii.
Housing Needs Assessment
City of Modesto Housing Element April 27, 2004
2- 34
In the interest of promoting a vibrant economy, the City has prepared an Economic
Development Action Plan as a component of an overall Strategic Plan. The Action Plan
includes goals, strategies, and actions that are largely focused on public utility and service
provision. Some of the actions and policies are relevant for consideration in development of
the Housing Element update ( Table 2- 27).
Table 2- 27
Relevant Economic Development Action Plan Policies and Actions
Section of Action
Plan
Relevance for
Housing Goals,
Programs, and
Policies
Relevant Action Plan Policies and Actions
Infrastructure Moderate Conduct annual rate reviews/ cost- of- service analyses for water, sewer,
and storm drainage.
Benchmark against other similar utilities to provide comparable costs.
Provide dependable service delivery at rates comparable to or less than
elsewhere in the state.
Develop internal strategies to focus key resources on preventive and/ or
proactive infrastructure maintenance.
Water and
Wastewater
Moderate Develop Water and Wastewater Master Plan that includes: water and
wastewater quality; water supply/ quantity and wastewater; treatment
capacity; water source identification; growth impacts analysis;
opportunities for regional facilities; conservation strategies ( water
meters, variable water rates, etc.); infrastructure needs ( business parks,
etc.)
Seek rate increases adequate to fund water/ wastewater master plan
strategies.
Develop a comprehensive water and wastewater strategy.
Update and adopt the Urban Water Management Plan Update to
addresses water supply issues related to growth and water quality.
Solid Waste Low N/ A
Transportation Moderate Orient new development toward multi- modal and non- motorized
modes.
Communications
and Technology
Low N/ A
Land Use High Mix land uses within neighborhoods.
Create development incentives to encourage compact development and
ensure planning/ zoning codes facilitate this development.
Prepare comprehensive General Plan Housing Element that includes a
Housing Overlay for the General Plan.
Create housing opportunities and choices for a range of household
types, family sizes and incomes.
Increase multi- family residential and affordable housing inventory.
Establish aesthetic criteria for evaluation of projects.
Identify and prioritize farmland/ open space areas for preservation as
community buffers.
Preserve open space, farmland, natural beauty, historic buildings, and
critical environmental areas.
Identify ultimate urban limit lines based on logic, economy of scale,
and agricultural land use ( including soil quality).
Reinvest in and strengthen existing communities and achieve more
balanced regional development.
Upgrade infrastructure and target infill areas for development.
Perform a comprehensive revision of the City’s Zoning Code, to
include developing set criteria for evaluating projects that apply to all
Housing Needs Assessment
City of Modesto Housing Element April 27, 2004
2- 35
Table 2- 27
Relevant Economic Development Action Plan Policies and Actions
Section of Action
Plan
Relevance for
Housing Goals,
Programs, and
Policies
Relevant Action Plan Policies and Actions
development proposals.
Encourage citizen and stakeholder participation in development
decisions.
Establish project review method that includes public participation and
community meetings.
Increase the efficiency of the permit process to ensure it is customer
friendly and informative.
Achieve an equitable jobs- housing balance and avoid fiscal strains of
leapfrog development.
Conduct a study to determine the optimal mix of land uses for a healthy
economy and recommend changes to development proposals.
Establish annexation policy based upon the City’s ability to assimilate
new development and on the desire of residents to join the City,
combined with the willingness of the County to provide infrastructure
upgrades.
Scrap the 5- year inventory policy in favor of growth by ability to
provide infrastructure and maintenance of service delivery standards.
Regional
Cooperation
Moderate N/ A
City Finances High Review and update fees and charges ( CFF, etc.) on a regular basis to
ensure that fees are adequate.
Education and
Workforce
Development
Low Explore partnering with the County to develop child care programs that
meet the needs of downtown workers.
Downtown Vibrancy High Encourage infill and revitalization by revising fee structure for
development within downtown core.
Adopt developer incentives for high- density housing.
Construct a flagship housing development in downtown.
Business Low
Open Space,
Agriculture, and
Environment
Moderate Increase the General Plan open space standard.
Design and construct community infrastructure and amenities during
the initial phases of new development.
Redevelopment High Use state- required 20% housing set- aside funds to improve and increase
the amount of low to moderate- income housing.
Focus housing set- aside funds within the redevelopment area.
Encourage expansion of the Redevelopment Area to include
declining/ underdeveloped portions of the City ( i. e. Yosemite Corridor).
Look at opportunities to encourage people to develop vacant buildings.
Marketing Moderate N/ A
Housing Needs Assessment
City of Modesto Housing Element April 27, 2004
2- 36
Special Needs Groups
Certain groups have greater difficulty in finding acceptable, affordable housing due to special
circumstances relating to employment and income, household characteristics, and disabilities.
Special needs groups, for the purposes of this analysis include:
Seniors
Persons with disabilities
Large households
Single- parent households ( female- headed households with children, in particular)
Homeless persons
Agricultural workers
Each special needs group has particular housing needs. Table 2- 28 identifies the special
needs populations. While single mothers with children continue to outnumber single fathers
with children, single- father households experienced the largest increase of the special needs
populations, at 78 percent. Single mothers with children increased in the City by 40 percent
and represented 74 percent of the single- parent households with children in 2000.
Farmworkers in Modesto decreased in population, with a migration toward unincorporated
areas of the County.
Table 2- 28
Special Needs Groups, 1990 – 2000
Special Needs Group 1990 2000
Persons Households Persons Households
% Change,
1990- 2000
Seniors ( 65+) 17,268 -- 20,962 -- 21%
Senior Households -- 12,067 -- 12,773 6%
Single Parents with Children -- 5,485 -- 8,122 48%
Mothers w/ Child -- 4,295 -- 5,998 40%
Fathers w/ Child -- 1,190 -- 2,124 78%
Large Households* -- 7,749 -- 10,054 31%
Farmworkers 1,362 -- 1,351 -- - 29%
Source: U. S. Census 1990, 2000.
* Five or more household members
Housing Needs Assessment
City of Modesto Housing Element April 27, 2004
2- 37
Persons with Disabilities
Physical, mental, and/ or developmental disabilities may prevent a person from working,
restrict one’s mobility, or otherwise make caring for oneself difficult. Individuals with
physical and mental disabilities often have special needs related to housing that go unmet by
the private housing market. Special issues relate to inability to earn a sufficient income for
market rate housing, the lack of accessible and affordable housing, and the need for
supportive services.
The 2000 Census documented the following disabilities: sensory, physical, mental, self- care,
going- outside- home, and employment. Due to the large range of disabilities recorded, the
proportion of residents with one or more disabilities reported by the 2000 Census generally is
larger than that reported in the 1990 Census. According to the 2000 Census, more than
38,000 residents in Modesto had one or more disabilities, representing approximately 22
percent of the total population ( Table 2- 29). However, almost half of the non- senior adults
with disabilities are employed.
Table 2- 29
Disability and Employment Status of Modesto Residents Aged 5+
Disability Status Total Male Female
Age 5 to 15 36,734 18,667 18,067
With a Disability 2,285 1,485 800
No Disability 34,449 17,182 17,267
Age 16 to 20 14,567 7,105 7,462
With a Disability 2,229 1,124 1,105
Employed 42% 47% 37%
Not Employed 58% 53% 63%
No Disability 12,338 5,981 6,357
Age 21 to 64 102,510 49,370 53,140
With a Disability 24,593 12,408 12,185
Employed 50% 58% 41%
Not Employed 50% 42% 59%
No Disability 77,917 36,962 40,955
Age 65+ 19,727 7,975 11,752
With a Disability 9,250 3,574 5,676
No Disability 10,477 4,401 6,076
Source: U. S. Census 2000.
Note: Totals may deviate slightly from 100% count of population.
Figures in this table are based on Census sample data.
Housing Needs Assessment
City of Modesto Housing Element April 27, 2004
2- 38
Among the Modesto children with disabilities, most are inflicted with mental disabilities,
which include development disabilities ( Table 2- 30). Among the disabled persons age 16 to
64, physical disabilities, going- outside- home disabilities, and employment disabilities are
most common. Seniors age 65 or above are more impacted by physical and going- outside-home
disabilities than other types of disabilities. To accommodate the housing needs for
persons with disabilities, housing designs must be particularly sensitive to the constraints
caused by physical and sensory disabilities. Modesto has a number of State- licensed
community care facilities to meet the needs of persons with special needs, including those
related to physical and mental disabilities, as summarized in Table 2- 31.
Table 2- 30
Disability Type by Age
Disability Type % of Total
Age 5 to 15 with Disabilities 2,285
Sensory Disability 18%
Physical Disability 13%
Mental Disability 61%
Self- Care Disability 9%
Age 16 to 64 with Disabilities 26,822
Sensory Disability 7%
Physical Disability 20%
Mental Disability 14%
Self- Care Disability 6%
Going- Outside- Home Disability 20%
Employment Disability 35%
Age 65+ with Disabilities 9,250
Sensory Disability 16%
Physical Disability 33%
Mental Disability 15%
Self- Care Disability 12%
Going- Outside- Home Disability 24%
Source: U. S. Census 2000.
Note: A person may report multiple disabilities.
Housing Needs Assessment
City of Modesto Housing Element April 27, 2004
2- 39
Table 2- 31
Licensed Community Care Facilities
Facility Type # of Facilities
Capacity of
Facility
Small Family Home 2 8
Group Home 7 44
Adult Residential 23 299
Residential- Elderly 40 1,096
Social Rehabilitation Facility 1 6
Adult Day Care 5 546
Total 78 1,999
Source: State of California Department of Social Services, Community Care
Licensing Division, 2001.
Senior Households
Senior persons often have special housing needs for three key reasons: income, health care
costs, and physical disabilities. Some of the most important issues for seniors are presented
in Table 2- 32. Among the senior population in Modesto, 27 percent of all seniors live alone
( Table 2- 33). This proportion is significantly higher than in California and indicates a need
for housing options designed to meet senior needs.
Table 2- 32
Housing Issues of Special Importance to Seniors
Senior Issues Description Incidence in Modesto
Fixed/ Limited
Income
Many seniors have a limited, and/ or fixed income from
which they pay for health care, housing, and other expenses.
Approximately 33 percent of
senior households in Modesto
have low or very low
incomes.
Disabilities Seniors have physical disabilities at a higher rate than does
the general population. Senior homeowners, particularly
elderly women, may require assistance in performing regular
home maintenance or repair activities due to physical
limitations or disabilities.
Out of the senior population
in the City, 37 percent have a
disability.
Cost Burden Limited income and a lack of affordable housing leads to a
cost burden ( more than 30 percent of one’s income spent on
housing).
61 percent of renter senior
households in the City
experience a housing cost
burden.
Housing Needs Assessment
City of Modesto Housing Element April 27, 2004
2- 40
Table 2- 33
Senior Population
Modesto
Category Number of Persons % of Senior Persons
California % of
Senior Persons
Total: 20,962 100% 100%
In households: 19,325 92% 95%
In family households: 13,146 63% 67%
Householder: 6,867 33% 34%
In nonfamily households: 6,179 30% 28%
Living alone 5,574 27% 7%
In group quarters: 1,637 8% 5%
Institutionalized population 1,144 5% 3%
Noninstitutionalized population 493 2% 1%
Source: U. S. Census, 2000.
Many senior households in Modesto pay more than 30 percent of their often- limited and
small incomes on housing. According to the 2000 Census, 26 percent of the senior owner
households and 59 percent of the senior renter households assumed a housing cost burden of
more than 30 percent of their incomes ( Table 2- 34). Affordable housing opportunities for
seniors, particularly those who rent, are needed in Modesto. Several housing developments
in the City offer affordable housing for seniors. These include the Sherwood Manor and
Conant Place.
Table 2- 34
Housing Cost Burden among Senior Households
Senior Households Owner Renter Total
Total Households 9,069 3,660 12,729
Paying More than 30% of Income on Housing 26% 59% 35%
Source: U. S. Census, 2000
The special needs of seniors can be met through:
Congregate care
Other senior housing with supportive services
Transportation services
Architecture to accommodate disabilities
Rent subsidies
Shared housing programs
Housing rehabilitation assistance
Social and supportive services are available from the City’s Parks, Recreation and
Neighborhoods Department, as well as the Stanislaus County Department of Social Services.
The City’s Senior Citizens Center offers recreational and social activities, driving courses,
tax consulting, health exams, immunizations, lunch program, and a resource and referral
service. Several retirement communities throughout Modesto offer assisted living in for- rent
and for- purchase units. The Salvation Army’s Senior Information and Referral Program
Housing Needs Assessment
City of Modesto Housing Element April 27, 2004
2- 41
helps seniors with issues related to financial planning, health, and housing assistance. The
Stanislaus County Area Agency on Aging, which provides information and referral services,
as well as advocating for senior needs locally, is located in Modesto.
Single- Parent Families
Single- parent households, particularly female- headed households often face difficulty in
finding adequate and affordable housing, due to their single incomes. Female- headed
households also tend to earn lower incomes. Compared to two- parent households, single
parents also must dedicate a larger portion of their limited incomes to child care, food, and
health care expenses.
According to the 2000 Census, Modesto had 8,122 single- parents with children under the age
of 18 ( see Table 28). Specifically, 5,998 ( 74 percent) were female- headed families and 2,124
( 26 percent) were male- headed families. Provision of affordable family housing near transit
centers and child care and other supportive services helps address the housing needs of this
special group.
Large Families
Large households, defined as those with five or more persons, have a need for larger
dwelling units, which are often in limited supply and more expensive. To save money for
other basic necessities, many lower- income large households live in overcrowded apartments
or homes.
According to the Census, 10,054 large households resided in Modesto, representing
approximately 16 percent of all households in the City. Among the large households, 5,760
( 57 percent) were owner- households and 4,294 ( 43 percent) were renter- households.
Generally, these households require dwelling units with three or more bedrooms for adequate
housing. Approximately 76 percent of owner- occupied units have 3 or more bedrooms, but
only 27 percent of renter- occupied units have 3 or more bedrooms. Availability of rental
housing may be a problem for large families.
Updated 2000 Census data detailing the housing problems confronted by large households is
not yet available. According to the 1990 Census, only 15 percent of large families that
owned their home had lower incomes, but 66 percent of large families that rented had lower
incomes, which was much higher than the overall percentage of households ( 34 percent) that
had lower incomes ( Table 2- 35). As a result, 48 percent of the large renter- households paid
more than 30 percent of their income on housing, and 58 percent of large renter- households
experienced overcrowding in 1990. Given the recent escalation of housing prices in
Modesto, the extent of housing problems faced by large households, especially those that
rent, is expected to have become worse.
Housing Needs Assessment
City of Modesto Housing Element April 27, 2004
2- 42
Table 2- 35
Large Family Income Levels
Income Level (% of Median Household Type Family Income)
0- 30% 31- 50% 51- 80% 81- 95% 95%+
All Households 8% 11% 15% 8% 58%
Large Families that Own 2% 4% 9% 9% 76%
Large Families that Rent 13% 26% 27% 7% 27%
Source: HUD CHAS, 1993
To address overcrowding, communities can provide incentives for developers to build larger
apartments with three or more bedrooms that can accommodate larger households. Often,
the shortage of large rental units can also be alleviated through the provision of affordable
ownership housing, such as condominiums coupled with homeownership assistance.
However, since 1990, only 10 percent of housing built since 1990 was multi- family housing.
The threat of litigation over construction defects has been a major constraint to multi- family
condominium housing construction. Recent legislative changes allow developers to
negotiate and mitigate construction defects before going to court, which may relieve some of
the concerns for builders, freeing up the for- sale multi- family housing market.
Homeless
Due to the transient nature of the homeless population, estimating the precise number of
homeless persons in a community is a difficult, if not impossible challenge. As part of the
St

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City of Modesto
Housing Element
( 2003- 2008)
Adopted by Modesto City Council
Resolution No. 2004- 233
April 27, 2004
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City of Modesto
Housing Element
( 2003- 2008)
City of Modesto
Community and Economic Development Department
Planning Division
Suite 3300
1010 Tenth Street
Modesto, CA 95354
( 209) 577- 5267
www. ci. modesto. ca. us
City of Modesto Housing Element April 27, 2004
i
City of Modesto
2003- 2008 Housing Element
Table of Contents
Section Page
1. INTRODUCTION
A. Community Context .................................................................................................. 1- 1
B. State Policy and Authorization.................................................................................. 1- 2
C. Role of the Housing Element .................................................................................... 1- 2
D. Data Sources.............................................................................................................. 1- 4
E. Relationship to the Modesto Urban Area General Plan ............................................ 1- 4
F. Community Involvement........................................................................................... 1- 9
2. HOUSING NEEDS ASSESSMENT
A. Purpose ...................................................................................................................... 2- 1
B. Community Context .................................................................................................. 2- 2
C. Regional Population and Economic Context........................................................... 2- 11
D. Local Population and Economic Characteristics..................................................... 2- 20
E. Future Housing Needs ............................................................................................. 2- 57
F. Summary of Issues .................................................................................................. 2- 58
3. CONSTRAINTS ANALYSIS
A. Market Constraints .................................................................................................... 3- 1
B. Governmental Constraints......................................................................................... 3- 7
C. Environmental and Infrastructure Constraints......................................................... 3- 24
4. RESOURCES ANALYSIS
A. Availability of Sites................................................................................................... 4- 1
B. Financial Resources................................................................................................. 4- 12
C. Administrative Resources........................................................................................ 4- 18
D. Opportunities for Energy Conservation .................................................................. 4- 21
5. REVIEW OF 1992 HOUSING ELEMENT PERFORMANCE
A. Purpose ...................................................................................................................... 5- 1
B. Assessment of Goals ................................................................................................. 5- 2
C. Assessment of Programs ........................................................................................... 5- 7
6. HOUSING PLAN
A. Housing Goals and Policies....................................................................................... 6- 2
B. Implementing Programs ............................................................................................ 6- 5
C. Quantified Objectives.............................................................................................. 6- 30
Table of Contents
City of Modesto Housing Element April 27, 2004
ii
APPENDICES
Map A- 1 City of Modesto Vacant and Underdeveloped Commercial and Professional Office
Zoned Properties within the Incorporated Area.
Map A- 2 City of Modesto Potential Emergency Shelter Sites based on Underdeveloped and
Vacant Industrial Zoned Properties within the Incorporated Area.
Map A- 3 City of Modesto Vacant and Underdeveloped Residential Zoned Properties within the
Incorporated Area
Map A- 4 City of Modesto General Plan Areas
Map A- 5 City of Modesto Residential Specific Plan Areas
Map A- 6 City of Modesto Residential CPD’s and Areas with a Positive Measure A/ M Vote
Map A- 7 City of Modesto Sewer Trunk and Water Transmission Lines
Table A- 1 Summary Table of Residential Sites Inventory within the Modesto City Limits.
Table A- 2 Measure M Area Development Assumptions Table
TABLES
Table Page
1- 1 General Plan Consistency Analysis........................................................................................ 1- 5
2- 1 Population Percentage Change, 1990 and 2000 ..................................................................... 2- 2
2- 2 Median Home Value in 1990 and 2000 –
East Bay Counties and Stanislaus County.............................................................................. 2- 8
2- 3 San Joaquin Valley Counties, 2000 Projection .................................................................... 2- 11
2- 4 Housing Tenure in San Joaquin Valley, Modesto, and California ....................................... 2- 13
2- 5 1999 Household Incomes: California, San Joaquin Valley, and Modesto ........................... 2- 13
2- 6 Median Household Income in Bay Area Counties and San Joaquin Valley Region............ 2- 14
2- 7 Occupational Distribution in Modesto, Region, California.................................................. 2- 14
2- 8 Commuting in California, San Joaquin Valley Region, Modesto ........................................ 2- 16
2- 9 Modesto Average Commute Time, 1990 and 2000.............................................................. 2- 16
2- 10 Regional Population Growth ................................................................................................ 2- 17
2- 11 Modesto Growth Capacity.................................................................................................... 2- 17
2- 12 Employment Growth in Stan COG Region, 1990- 2025....................................................... 2- 18
2- 13 Stanislaus County Occupations with Job Growth, 1999- 2006 ............................................. 2- 19
2- 14 Modesto and Surrounding Communities Populations: 1980- 2020....................................... 2- 21
2- 15 Race and Ethnicity in Modesto and California, 1990 and 2000........................................... 2- 21
2- 16 Household Types.................................................................................................................. 2- 24
2- 17 Modesto 2002 Estimates ...................................................................................................... 2- 25
2- 18 Tenure by Age .................................................................................................................... 2- 25
2- 19 Housing Costs as Percentage of Household Income ............................................................ 2- 26
2- 20 Income in Modesto, Region, State ....................................................................................... 2- 27
2- 21 Income Level by Tenure....................................................................................................... 2- 28
2- 22 Occupation of Modesto Residents, 1990 and 2000 .............................................................. 2- 30
2- 23 Major Employers in Modesto............................................................................................... 2- 30
2- 24 Modesto Annual Salaries, Selected Occupations, 2000 ....................................................... 2- 31
2- 25 Households and Employment, Modesto and Stanislaus County .......................................... 2- 32
2- 26 Households and Employment, Modesto, 1990- 2000............................................................ 2- 33
2- 27 Relevant Economic Development Action Plan Policies and Actions .................................. 2- 34
Table of Contents
City of Modesto Housing Element April 27, 2004
iii
Tables ( cont.)
Table Page
2- 28 Special Needs Groups, 1990- 2000 ....................................................................................... 2- 36
2- 29 Disability and Employment Status of Modesto Residents Aged 5+ .................................... 2- 37
2- 30 Disability Type by Age ........................................................................................................ 2- 38
2- 31 Licensed Care Community Facilities ................................................................................... 2- 39
2- 32 Housing Issues of Special Importance to Seniors ................................................................ 2- 39
2- 33 Senior Population ................................................................................................................. 2- 40
2- 34 Housing Cost Burden among Senior Households ................................................................ 2- 40
2- 35 Large Family Income Levels................................................................................................ 2- 42
2- 36 Types of Homeless ............................................................................................................... 2- 43
2- 37 Emergency Shelters in Modesto........................................................................................... 2- 44
2- 38 City- Supported Transitional Housing................................................................................... 2- 44
2- 39 Housing Stock, 1990 and 2000............................................................................................. 2- 46
2- 40 Age of Housing Stock .......................................................................................................... 2- 47
2- 41 City- Supported Multi- Family Affordable Housing.............................................................. 2- 49
2- 42 Modesto Affordable Housing Developed, 1993- 2000 ......................................................... 2- 49
2- 43 Modesto Federally- Assisted Multi- Family Housing Inventory............................................ 2- 50
2- 44 Rent Subsidies Required ...................................................................................................... 2- 51
2- 45 Housing Affordability Matrix............................................................................................... 2- 53
2- 46 Home Sales Prices, 1997- 2002............................................................................................. 2- 54
2- 47 Single- Family Sales Prices by Number of Bedrooms, January – October 2002.................. 2- 54
2- 48 Condominium Sales Prices, January through November 2002 ............................................ 2- 55
2- 49 Increase in Owner and Renter Costs, Modesto and Bay Area.............................................. 2- 56
3- 1 Disposition of Home Loans, Conventional v. Government- Insured...................................... 3- 3
3- 2 Disposition of Conventional Home Improvement Loans....................................................... 3- 5
3- 3 Land Use Categories Permitting Residential Use .................................................................. 3- 7
3- 4 Conventional Housing Types Permitted by Zone .................................................................. 3- 8
3- 5 Special Needs Housing Types Permitted by Zone ............................................................... 3- 11
3- 6 Vacant and Underdeveloped Commercial and Industrial Properties.................................... 3- 12
3- 7 Residential Development Standards..................................................................................... 3- 13
3- 8 Parking Requirements .......................................................................................................... 3- 15
4- 1 Share of Regional Housing Needs.......................................................................................... 4- 2
4- 2 Remaining Allocation: RHNA............................................................................................... 4- 3
4- 3 Residential Sites Inventory within City Limits ...................................................................... 4- 4
4- 4 Residential Sites Inventory with City Sphere of Influence .................................................... 4- 9
4- 5 Sites Inventory and Share of Regional Housing Needs........................................................ 4- 11
4- 6 Financial Resources for Housing Activities ......................................................................... 4- 15
5- 1 Housing Production from 1992- 2000..................................................................................... 5- 3
5- 2 Housing Accomplishments since 1992 .................................................................................. 5- 7
6- 1 Summary of Five- Year Quantified Housing Objectives ...................................................... 6- 31
Table of Contents
City of Modesto Housing Element April 27, 2004
iv
Figures
Figure Page
2- 1 Regional and Local Vicinity Map .......................................................................................... 2- 3
2- 2 Population of Modesto, 1970- 2020 ........................................................................................ 2- 4
2- 3 Housing Units Constructed, 1990- 2001 ................................................................................. 2- 4
2- 4 Stanislaus County Prime Farmland Converted to Urban Use, 1992- 2000 ............................. 2- 6
2- 5 Median Home Value, California Counties, 2000 ................................................................... 2- 9
2- 6 Median Rent, California Counties, 2000.............................................................................. 2- 10
2- 7 Farming Share of Total Employment, Stanislaus County and California ............................ 2- 15
2- 8 Concentration of Minority Households ................................................................................ 2- 23
2- 9 Low- Income Target Areas.................................................................................................... 2- 29
2- 10 Median Age of Housing Stock ............................................................................................. 2- 48
2- 11 Index of Central Valley Home Prices, 1995- 2002 ............................................................... 2- 55
City of Modesto Housing Element April 27, 2004
1- 1
INTRODUCTION
A. COMMUNITY CONTEXT
The City of Modesto faces a critical need to plan for
and provide sufficient housing units, resources, and
programs for our residents. Rising housing costs, a
large anticipated population growth, and changing
demographics all illustrate the need to develop an
approach and strategy to producing housing that
matches the needs of the people of Modesto. Based
on the most up- to- date data, resources, and
knowledge available, the City has undertaken the task
of planning to meet housing needs for the period of
2003- 2008. The result of this effort is the Housing
Element of the General Plan.
Since the late 1990s, Modesto has experienced a substantial rise in housing costs for both
rental and ownership housing. Despite a relatively high rate of housing production from
2000- 2002, housing costs have continued to rise and threaten to make the average home
unaffordable to the average working family in the City. Diminishing housing affordability in
Bay Area jurisdictions has increased the demand for housing in Modesto, resulting in
increased housing prices, housing cost burden, and lack of affordable housing production in
Modesto. Meanwhile, the City also faces a need to continue upgrading housing and
reinvesting in neighborhoods.
Within this broad context, Modesto must address key housing challenges over the 2003- 2008
planning period. These challenges include:
1) Providing sites for additional housing;
2) Providing for a range in types and prices of housing;
3) Continuing to address the need to improve and rehabilitate housing and
neighborhoods;
4) Providing for those with special housing needs; and
5) Maintaining and improving the local environment and quality of life in Modesto.
The 2003- 2008 Housing Element addresses these issues through a comprehensive housing
strategy.
Creating a suitable and effective housing strategy is a complex process, but one defined by
the needs of those living and working within the community. The diverse population of
Modesto requires an approach that can produce an equally diverse range of housing choices,
including single- family homes, apartments, condominiums, housing for special needs groups
Introduction
City of Modesto Housing Element April 27, 2004
1- 2
( including the homeless), and many others. While the content of the Housing Element is
based on community needs, the format and organization of the document is also largely
determined by State law. The sections below provide an overview of the content and format
of the Housing Element, describe the input into the Plan by Modesto residents and interested
parties, defines the relationship of the Housing Element to the General Plan, and discusses
how the Housing Element will be used by the City to encourage housing production in a pace
and manner consistent with community goals.
B. STATE POLICY AND AUTHORIZATION
The California Legislature has identified the attainment of a decent home and suitable living
environment for every resident as the State’s major housing goal. Recognizing the important
role of local planning programs in pursuing this goal, the Legislature has mandated that all
cities and counties prepare a housing element as part of their comprehensive general plan.
Section 65302( c) of the Government Code sets forth the specific components to be contained
in a community’s housing element.
State law requires housing elements to be updated at least every five years to reflect a
community’s changing housing needs. The 1992 Modesto Housing Element covered the
five- year period spanning 1992 through 1997. However, due to an economic downturn in the
mid- 1990s and a shortfall in State funds, the Legislature extended the planning period for the
1992 Housing Element through June 30, 2003. Thus, this Housing Element covers the
planning period of July 1, 2003 to June 30, 2008. Special legislation was later adopted to
provide an extension for completing the Housing Element update to December 31, 2003.
A critical measure of compliance with the State Housing Element law is the ability of a
jurisdiction to accommodate its share of the regional housing needs – Regional Housing
Needs Allocation ( RHNA). For Stanislaus County, the regional growth projected by the
State was for the period between January 1, 2001 and June 30, 2008. Therefore, while the
Housing Element is a five- year document covering July 1, 2003 to June 30, 2008, the City
has seven and one- half years ( January 1, 2001 to June 30, 2008) to fulfill the RHNA.
C. ROLE OF HOUSING ELEMENT
The Housing Element of the General Plan is designed to provide the City with a coordinated
and comprehensive strategy for promoting the production of safe, decent, and affordable
housing within the community. A priority of both State and local governments, Government
Code Section 65580 states the intent of creating housing elements:
The availability of housing is of vital statewide importance, and the early
attainment of decent housing and a suitable living environment for every
California family is a priority of the highest order.
Introduction
City of Modesto Housing Element April 27, 2004
1- 3
Per State law, the Housing Element has two main purposes:
( 1) To provide an assessment of both current and future housing needs and constraints in
meeting these needs; and
( 2) To provide a strategy that establishes housing goals, policies, and programs.
Beyond State law requirements, Modesto has areas of special priority that provide additional
purpose to the Housing Element. The unique conditions and market forces in play in
Modesto require that the Housing Element focus on additional concerns, such as the
influence of San Francisco Bay Area workers have on the local housing market and the
pursuit of a jobs/ housing balance for the economic well- being of the community. The State-mandated
concerns and the local concerns combine to set the foundation upon which this
Housing Element is built.
The Housing Element is a five- year plan for the 2003- 2008 period, unlike other General Plan
elements that typically cover a 10- to 30- year planning horizon. The Modesto Urban Area
General Plan, for instance, encompasses goals and policies intended to guide growth and
development through the year 2025. This Housing Element identifies strategies and
programs that focus on:
1) Matching housing supply with need;
2) Maximizing housing choice throughout the community;
3) Assisting in the provision of affordable housing;
4) Removing governmental and other constraints to housing investment; and
5) Promoting fair and equal housing opportunities.
The Housing Element consists of the following major components:
An analysis of the City's demographics, housing characteristics, and existing and
future housing needs ( Section 2).
A review of potential market, governmental, and environmental constraints to
meeting the City's identified housing needs ( Section 3).
An evaluation of the land, financial, and organizational resources available to address
the City’s identified housing needs ( Section 4).
A review of the City’s accomplishments from the previous 1992 Housing Element,
including quantified results of programs ( Section 5).
A statement of the Housing Plan to address the City's identified housing needs,
including housing goals, policies and programs ( Section 6).
Introduction
City of Modesto Housing Element April 27, 2004
1- 4
D. DATA SOURCES
In preparing the Housing Element, various sources of information were used. Wherever
possible, Census 2000 data provided the baseline for all demographic information.
Additional sources provided reliable updates to the 2000 Census. These include housing
market data from Dataquick, employment data from the Employment Development
Department, lending data from financial institutions provided under the Home Mortgage
Disclosure Act ( HMDA), and the most recent data available from service agencies and other
governmental agencies. In addition, the City’s 2003- 2008 Housing Element implements the
most recent changes to State Housing Element law, including those affecting the
development, maintenance, and improvement of housing for persons with disabilities.
E. RELATIONSHIP TO THE MODESTO URBAN
AREA GENERAL PLAN
The Housing Element is a component of the Modesto Urban Area General Plan, which
provides guiding policy for all growth and development within the community. The General
Plan consists of seven chapters that address both the State- mandated planning issues plus
optional subjects that are of particular concern to the City. These chapters are:
Community Growth Strategy
Community Development
Housing
Community Services and Facilities
Public Safety
Environmental Resources and Open Space
General Plan Implementation
State law requires consistency among sections of the General Plan. As such, goals and
policies contained within the Housing Element should be interpreted and implemented
consistent with the goals and policies of the rest of the General Plan. To ensure that the
contents of the 2003- 2008 Housing Element maintain consistency with the adopted General
Plan, an analysis of the two documents was conducted. Table 1- 1 provides the goals and
policies of the Housing Element and other General Plan policies that support them.
The City will ensure consistency between the Housing Element and other General Plan
elements so that policies introduced in one element are consistent with other elements. At
this time, the Housing Element does not propose significant changes to any other element of
the City’s General Plan. However, if it becomes apparent that over time that changes to any
element are needed for internal consistency, such changes will be proposed for consideration
by the Planning Commission and City Council.
Introduction
City of Modesto Housing Element April 27, 2004
1- 5
Table 1- 1
General Plan Consistency Analysis
Housing Element General Plan Supporting Policies
# Policy Element Topic Issue Policy
1.1 Support housing for all
income groups.
Community
Development
Neo-
Traditional
Principles
C Neighborhoods should contain
a diversity of housing types to
enable citizens from a wide
range of economic levels to
live within its boundaries.
1.2 Promote the
development of
affordable housing
throughout the
community.
Community
Development
Neo-
Traditional
Principles
C Neighborhoods should contain
a diversity of housing types to
enable citizens from a wide
range of economic levels to
live within its boundaries.
1.2 Facilitate development
of housing for special
needs groups.
No specific policies in General Plan that either support or contradict this
housing element policy
1.4 Facilitate the
development of entry-level
and step- up
housing.
Community
Development
Neighborhood
Plan Prototype
A Neighborhoods should contain
a variety of housing types, as
allowed by the R- 1, R- 2, R- 3,
and P- D zones of the Modesto
Zoning Code.
2.1 Promote equal
opportunity for all
residents to reside in the
housing of their choice.
Community
Development
Neo-
Traditional
Principles
C Neighborhoods should contain
a diversity of housing types to
enable citizens from a wide
range of economic levels to
live within its boundaries.
2.2 Continue to make a
strong commitment to
the issue of fair housing
practices.
Community
Development
Neo-
Traditional
Principles
C Neighborhoods should contain
a diversity of housing types to
enable citizens from a wide
range of economic levels to
live within its boundaries.
2.3 Encourage a range of
housing types to be
constructed in
subdivisions and large
developments.
Community
Development
Neighborhood
Plan Prototype
A Neighborhoods should contain
a variety of housing types, as
allowed by the R- 1, R- 2, R- 3,
and P- D zones of the Modesto
Zoning Code.
2.4 Facilitate the
development of second
units as an affordable
housing alternative.
Community
Development
Neighborhood
Plan Prototype
A Neighborhoods should contain
a variety of housing types, as
allowed by the R- 1, R- 2, R- 3,
and P- D zones of the Modesto
Zoning Code.
2.5 Encourage the
development and
rehabilitation of housing
that is accessible to
persons with disabilities.
No specific policies in General Plan that either support or contradict this
housing element policy.
Introduction
City of Modesto Housing Element April 27, 2004
1- 6
Table 1- 1
General Plan Consistency Analysis
Housing Element General Plan Supporting Policies
# Policy Element Topic Issue Policy
3.1 Maintain the supply of
safe, decent and sound
affordable housing in the
City of Modesto through
conservation and
rehabilitation.
No specific policies in General Plan that either support or contradict this
housing element policy.
3.2 Focus City resources for
housing rehabilitation
and assisted housing on
those having the greatest
need for assistance.
No specific policies in General Plan that either support or contradict this
housing element policy.
3.3 Make a maximum effort
to preserve the units in
assisted housing
developments eligible to
change to non- lower-income
uses.
No specific policies in General Plan that either support or contradict this
housing element policy.
3.4 Assist non- profit
housing providers in
acquisition,
rehabilitation, and
maintenance of older
homes as long- term
affordable housing.
No specific policies in General Plan that either support or contradict this
housing element policy.
3.5 Promote energy
conservation activities in
all residential
neighborhoods.
No specific policies in General Plan that either support or contradict this
housing element policy.
4.1 Track changes in
Housing Law to ensure
that land use regulations
are consistent with and
supportive of State and
federal laws.
No specific policies in General Plan that either support or contradict this
housing element policy.
4.2 Review local regulations
periodically for the
ability to accommodate
projected housing
demands.
No specific policies in General Plan that either support or contradict this
housing element policy.
4.3 Maintain an up- to- date
inventory of the amount,
type, and size of vacant
and underused land.
No specific policies in General Plan that either support or contradict this
housing element policy.
Introduction
City of Modesto Housing Element April 27, 2004
1- 7
Table 1- 1
General Plan Consistency Analysis
Housing Element General Plan Supporting Policies
# Policy Element Topic Issue Policy
4.4 Maintain an adequate
supply of appropriately
designated land for
special needs housing.
No specific policies in General Plan that either support or contradict this
housing element policy.
5.1 Establish and maintain
development standards
that support housing
production while
protecting quality of life
goals.
No specific policies in General Plan that either support or contradict this
housing element policy.
5.2 Continue to provide
financial incentives such
as fee deferrals and
exemptions for
affordable and special
housing projects.
No specific policies in General Plan that either support or contradict this
housing element policy.
5.3 Continue to provide for
timely and coordinated
processing of residential
development projects.
No specific policies in General Plan that either support or contradict this
housing element policy.
5.4 Review the City's fee
structure to ensure that
fees do not unduly
constrain the production
of housing.
No specific policies in General Plan that either support or contradict this
housing element policy.
6.1 Promote coordination
between infrastructure
master plans, service
area boundaries, and
housing plans.
Community
Facilities
Water Policies
Baseline Area
B The City of Modesto will
encourage the optimum
beneficial use of water
resources within the City. The
City shall strive to maintain an
adequate supply of high
quality water for urban uses.
6.2 Direct housing to areas
where infrastructure and
utilities can be provided.
Community
Facilities
Water Policies
Planned
Urbanizing
Area
B The City of Modesto shall
coordinate land development
projects with the expansion of
water treatment and supply
facilities.
6.3 Promote infill
development.
No specific policies in General Plan that either support or contradict this
housing element policy
6.4 Support policies and
regulations to ensure
implementation of
Federal and State laws
regarding stormwater
pollution prevention.
Community
Facilities
Water Policies
Baseline Area
B The City of Modesto will
encourage the optimum
beneficial use of water
resources within the City. The
City shall strive to maintain an
adequate supply of high
quality water for urban uses.
Introduction
City of Modesto Housing Element April 27, 2004
1- 8
Table 1- 1
General Plan Consistency Analysis
Housing Element General Plan Supporting Policies
# Policy Element Topic Issue Policy
7.1 Encourage the
development of
workforce housing.
No specific policies in General Plan that either support or contradict this
housing element policy.
7.2 Promote economic
development efforts that
create employment
opportunities for City
residents.
No specific policies in General Plan that either support or contradict this
housing element policy.
7.3 Work with Stanislaus
County and neighboring
jurisdictions to improve
the jobs- housing balance
in the region.
No specific policies in General Plan that either support or contradict this
housing element policy.
Introduction
City of Modesto Housing Element April 27, 2004
1- 9
F. COMMUNITY INVOLVEMENT
Public input on housing needs and strategies is critical to developing appropriate and
effective City housing programs. As part of the Housing Element update, the City undertook
a three- phase effort to involve residents, policy makers, and service providers. In the first
phase, the City conducted a series of community workshops to solicit information on housing
needs in the community. The second phase involved a series of meetings before the Housing
Element Advisory Committee ( HEAC). Seven HEAC meetings were held over a six- month
period to provide information to the public about the purpose, mandate, and contents of the
Element, and to provide opportunities for public input. The third and final community
involvement component is the public hearing process associated with the Planning
Commission and City Council consideration of the Housing Element.
Neighborhood Meetings
The City conducted neighborhood meetings on September 25, 26, and 30, 2002 for the
Housing Element. The purpose of the meetings was to introduce the public to the Housing
Element and to obtain feedback and direction on major housing issues facing the City. The
meetings were held in various locations and were advertised to generate interest through
direct mailing and local newspapers. The events were advertised at City Hall and various
City locations.
Housing Element Advisory Committee ( HEAC) Meetings
The City held seven public HEAC meetings between October, 2002 and May, 2003 to
discuss the housing element mandate, obtain input on community housing needs, and receive
policy direction from the HEAC. The HEAC meetings were open to the public, with special
invitations issued to service providers, stakeholders, and concerned residents. Of the groups
invited or noticed by mail, regular attendees included:
California Rural Legal Assistance
Community Housing and Shelter Services
Disability Resource Agency for Independent Living ( DRAIL)
Habitat for Humanity
League of Women Voters
Project Sentinel
Residents from the community
Stanislaus County Housing Authority
Stanislaus County Planning Department
Throughout the plan development process, interim products were prepared to assist the
HEAC and the public in formulating policies and programs. The Draft Housing Element was
a collaborative effort by the HEAC, service providers, stakeholders, concerned residents, and
Introduction
City of Modesto Housing Element April 27, 2004
1- 10
staff. The Draft Element was available for public review between May 7 and June 4 and was
presented before the Planning Commission and City Council on June 4.
Public Hearings
A joint study session and public hearing was
conducted on June 4, 2003 before the Planning
Commission and City Council to discuss the
Draft Housing Element prior to submittal of the
Element for review by the State Department of
Housing and Community Development ( HCD).
The meeting was attended by residents, public
agencies, and community groups, including:
California Rural Legal Assistance
Habitat for Humanity
League of Women Voters
Stanislaus County Housing Authority
In response to comments by the Planning Commission, City Council, and the public, the
Draft Housing Element was modified to strengthen the City’s commitment to several housing
programs.
Additional public hearings were conducted by the Planning Commission on February 18,
2004 and by the City Council on March 9 and April 27, 2004.
City of Modesto Housing Element April 27, 2004
2- 1
HOUSING NEEDS
ASSESSMENT
A. PURPOSE
Development of an appropriate and effective
housing strategy relies on an accurate and
dynamic characterization of the nature and
extent of existing housing needs, as well as a
projection of how those needs will change in
the future. Housing needs are affected by
local, regional, and to some extent, global
economic and financial conditions. However,
many variables that impact the supply and
demand of housing can be assessed and
addressed at the local level. Such variables
include employment and population growth, demographic composition, condition of the local
housing stock, relative housing affordability, and the availability of housing- related services.
The following presentation of existing and future housing needs is structured to assist
development of programs and policies in the Housing Element.
Community Context presents the primary characteristics of Modesto that influence
housing needs and housing policy. A summary of local and regional issues
introduces the more detailed sections that follow.
Regional Population and Economic Context presents the demographic and
employment characteristics and trends of the San Joaquin Valley and Stanislaus
County communities, with a focus on the regional and interregional issues that could
affect housing in Modesto.
Local Population and Economic Characteristics distinguishes Modesto from the
region, and presents detailed information on the population, household types and
incomes, occupations held by residents, housing stock, special needs populations,
inventory of affordable housing, and affordability gaps in the City.
Future Housing Needs details the City’s share of projected regional housing needs.
Housing Needs Assessment
City of Modesto Housing Element April 27, 2004
2- 2
B. COMMUNITY CONTEXT
Modesto is located in the northern part of the San Joaquin Valley in Stanislaus County along
State Route 99 and between the Stanislaus and Tuolumne rivers ( Figure 2- 1). Modesto is the
largest incorporated city in Stanislaus County and accounts for approximately 42 percent of
the County’s population ( as of 2000). The estimated 2002 population is 199,000.1
Population growth in Modesto is projected by the Stanislaus Council of Governments ( Stan
COG) to accelerate between 2000 and 2020, with the City population increasing to 418,000
by 2020 ( refer to Table 2- 1 and Figure 2- 2). The population increase anticipated by the
City’s Urban Area General Plan Master Environmental Impact Report is 390,000 by 2025,
while the estimated holding capacity of the planning area is 400,000.
As the largest city in the County, Modesto serves as Stanislaus County’s retail, government,
medical, and employment center. Surrounded by small cities and farmland, Modesto is
located approximately 90 miles east of San Francisco, 80 miles south of Sacramento, 110
miles west of Yosemite National Park, and 95 miles northwest of Fresno.
Table 2- 1
Modesto Percentage Population Change, 1990- 2020
1990 - 2000 2000 - 2010 2000 - 2020
15% 60% 122%
Sources: U. S. Census, 1990, 2000; Stan COG, 2002.
The housing stock in Modesto expanded during the past decade, with a relatively large
number of single- family homes added, especially in the northern and western portions of the
community. Between 1990 and 2001, multi- family housing construction accounted for only
10 percent of all housing units constructed ( see Figure 2- 3).
According to the Building Department, more housing units were built in 2000 than in any
other year between 1990 and 2001. Multi- family units, which never comprised more than 22
percent of the total units built in any year, were built at the highest rate in 1990 and have
decreased since then.
1 City of Modesto. Urban Area General Plan Draft Environmental Impact Report. November 2002; California Department
of Finance web site, 2002.
108
132
99
99
Claus Rd
Tully Rd
Claribel Rd
Coffee Rd
Sylvan Ave
Oakdale Rd
Mitchell Rd
219
Bangs Ave
Carpenter Rd
Rumble Rd
Woodland Ave
Sisk Rd
Standiford Ave
PARADISE RD
9th St
Floyd Ave
Dale Rd
Whitmore Ave
Crows Landing Rd
Milnes Rd
Parker Rd
Terminal Ave
Snyder Ave
Whitmore Ave
La Loma Ave.
Briggsmore Ave
El Vista Ave
Hatch Rd
Pelandale Ave
Rumble Rd
Mitchell Rd.
Central Ave
Bodem St
Paradise Rd
Ceres
Empire
Salida
Riverbank
4.02
15
31
5.08
20.02
5.01
30.01
6.01
21
9.12
13
22
14
19
24
18
5.04
4.04 4.03
6.02
5.05 5.06
8.01
25.01
23.01
11
5.07
12
9.05
20.04
9.06
5.03
28.02
17
8.05
16.03
10.01
8.03
9.07
9.08
9.10
25.02
27.02
9.09
28.03
20.03
27.01
23.02
10.02
8.06
26.04
8.07
9.11
26.02
26.05
16.01
26.03
3.03 3.04
16.04
City of Modesto Housing Element
Regional and Local
Vicinity Map
GIS maps prepared by: Cotton/ Bridges/ Associates
Source: City of Modesto and 2000 Census ( SF- 1 and SF- 3)
Figure 2- 1
2- 3
City of Modesto
Census Tracts ( 2000)
City Boundary
9.10
0 0.5 1 2 3 4
Miles
Regional Map
Stanislaus
County
Merced
County
San Joaquin
County Tuolumne
County
Turlock
Ceres
Oakdale
Keyes
Grayson
Riverbank
Patterson
Westley
Waterford
Hughson
5
Modesto
99
99
5
580
Housing Needs Assessment
City of Modesto Housing Element April 27, 2004
2- 4
Figure 2- 2
Population of Modesto, 1970- 2020
61,712
106,963
164,730 188,856
302,546
418,562
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
450,000
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
Source: U. S. Census, 1990, 2000; Stan COG, 2002.
Figure 2- 3
Housing Units Constructed, 1990- 2001
Source: Modesto Building Department, 2002.
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2,000
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
Units Constructed
Single- Family
Mult i- Family
Housing Needs Assessment
City of Modesto Housing Element April 27, 2004
2- 5
Employment growth has not been commensurate with population growth during the last 10
years; the total number of employed residents increased by only 10 percent as population
grew 15 percent. The run- away housing market in the Bay Area has resulted in an influx of
people who work in the Silicon Valley, San Francisco, and East Bay in search of affordable
housing eastward. Locally, this increase in long- distance commuting and imbalance of jobs
and housing is an important issue to be addressed through housing policy, economic
development initiatives, and land use planning.
Local Issues
Given its location, rapid growth spurred by regional
needs, and the desire to maintain and improve the
quality of life it offers, the City strives to manage
growth, encourage redevelopment of the downtown
areas, ensure provision of infrastructure, and
establish village- scale planning. Air quality, traffic
congestion, neighborhood character and integrity,
provision of adequate infrastructure and services, and
farmland preservation are some of the primary issues
the City considers in its attempt to appropriately
manage growth.
Several roadway segments in Modesto operate at congested levels of service, especially in
the central and northern portions of the City. Under buildout conditions specified in the 2003
General Plan Master EIR, 38 arterial segments would operate in excess of Level of Service
D, which is below City roadway standards. Air quality and noise impacts of additional
traffic caused by future growth are a concern.
In the San Joaquin Valley Air Basin, which
the City of Modesto is located within, the
primary air pollutants of concern are ozone
and particulate matter. The Basin was
reclassified from serious to severe
nonattainment in 1999 by the federal
Environmental Protection Agency, and is
in severe nonattainment for State ozone
standards and in nonattainment for State
and federal particulate matter standards. Activities associated with population growth such
as automobile traffic and construction further contribute to formation of ozone and emission
of particulate matter.
City water comes from approximately 120 groundwater wells and from surface water
delivered via the Modesto Regional Treatment Plant. Historically, overdraft of groundwater
wells has been a problem in the area. With current surface treatment capacity and safe use of
Housing Needs Assessment
City of Modesto Housing Element April 27, 2004
2- 6
groundwater, water capacity can support up to 213,000 residents. 2 The available potable
surface and groundwater supplies would be short of water demand by about 56 million
gallons per day, assuming a 2025 population of 400,000 residents.
Agriculture is the leading industry in Stanislaus County and the San Joaquin Valley in terms
of overall value of commodities produced. According to the State Department of
Conservation, almost 2,000 acres of important farmland in Stanislaus County were converted
to urban use between 1996 and 1998, and another 822 acres were converted between 1998
and 2000, primarily due to development of housing in Modesto, Ceres, Turlock, and
Riverbank ( Figure 2- 4). 3 Much of the land immediately outside the current sphere of
influence, especially west of the City, is subject to Williamson Act farmland contracts. 4
Figure 2- 4
Stanislaus County Prime Farmland Converted to Urban Use, 1992- 2000
695 703
1,648
588
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
92- 94 94- 96 96- 98 98- 00
Acres Converted
Source: California Department of Conservation web site, 2002.
2 City of Modesto. Final General Plan Master Environmental Impact Report. March, 2003.
3 California Department of Conservation. Farmland Mapping and Monitoring Program. 2000 Field Report: Stanislaus
County ( East and West). August, 2001.
4 City of Modesto. Final General Plan Master Environmental Impact Report. March, 2003.
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Visions for the Future
In response to these critical local issues, the Modesto Urban Area General Plan is structured
to guide growth without taxing infrastructure, to consider environmental impacts, and to
provide for economic growth and development. The overriding mission statement of the
Modesto Urban Area General Plan states:
The Modesto Urban Area General Plan addresses the collective challenges of
the future. The Urban Area General Plan presents a blueprint for the
preservation of Modesto’s quality of life while providing direction for the
growth of business and industry to meet the needs of the future generations in
the Modesto community.
In addition, the General Plan focuses on the following critical issues: 5
Employment opportunities
More comprehensive planning
Defining Modesto’s character
Reducing automobile traffic impacts
Maintaining older neighborhoods and upgrading unsafe neighborhoods
Integrating new neighborhoods into the urban pattern
Agricultural land preservation
Environmental concerns
Local issues are also addressed by goals identified in the City’s Consolidated Plan and
Annual Action Plan that guide the use of federal entitlement grants for housing and
community development purposes. 6
City Council Goals
Promote economic development, including job training
Provide capital improvements in low- and moderate- income neighborhoods
Encourage Welfare to work initiatives including child care, transportation,
emergency food provision, and homeless prevention
Community priorities ( developed in community meetings throughout Modesto)
Promote economic development and jobs
Provide street improvements
Ensure traffic safety
Facilitate neighborhood revitalization and clean up
Assist and promote neighborhood- based non- profit organizations
5 City of Modesto. Urban Area General Plan. April, 1997.
6 Goals are included in the City of Modesto Parks, Recreation, and Neighborhoods Department’s Consolidated Annual
Performance and Evaluation Report for Fiscal Year 2000- 2001, September 2001.
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Regional Issues
Cities in Stanislaus County and the unincorporated areas are expected to experience lower
population growth rates compared to Modesto. The lower growth rates anticipated for the
County and smaller cities are partly a function of regional economic forecasts and partly a
function of growth management policy.
Population growth is limited by the County to protect agricultural resources threatened by
expanding cities and to maintain the small- town, rural character of unincorporated
communities. 7 Growth projections recently adopted by Stan COG reflect this desire to direct
growth into the urbanized communities. Growth projections are higher for Modesto ( 5.32
percent annually) 8 than for the County ( 3.49 percent) and are much higher than for the
unincorporated portions of the County ( 0.35 percent). Directing growth to appropriate
geographic areas within Stanislaus County is made more difficult by the evolving residential
and employment relationships with Bay Area communities.
Bay Area Housing Crisis
The San Francisco Bay Area is adjacent to Stanislaus County to the west. The expansion of
the Bay Area economy during the 1990s attracted workers from all over the country and
around the world, creating a high demand for housing. The internet business expansion and
high- tech sector created a generation of sudden wealth that pushed the housing prices to new
heights.
Over the last several years, housing prices have increased dramatically in the Bay Area,
while the cost of housing in Stanislaus County has remained relatively affordable ( Figures 2-
5 and 2- 6). As shown in Table 2- 2, median home prices in East Bay counties increased
dramatically between 1990 and 2000 ( in constant dollars), while the median home price in
Stanislaus County increased by only one percent.
Table 2- 2
Median Home Values in 1990 and 2000 - East Bay Counties and Stanislaus County
Median Home Value
County
1990 2000 % Change
1990 – 2000
Alameda County $ 227,200 $ 303,100 33%
Contra Costa County $ 219,400 $ 267,800 22%
San Francisco County $ 298,900 $ 396,400 33%
San Mateo $ 343,900 $ 469,200 36%
Santa Clara County $ 289,400 $ 446,400 54%
Stanislaus County $ 124,300 $ 125,300 1%
Source: U. S. Census, 1990 and 2000.
7 Sellers, Chip. Stanislaus County Council of Governments. Personal communications, October 1, 2002.
8 The Modesto General Plan Master EIR presents a significantly lower growth projection than Stan COG. See discussion
on page 2- 21.
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2- 9
As Bay Area workers continue to seek affordable housing in the San Joaquin Valley region,
housing prices in Stanislaus County have soared. Since 2000, the median home price in
Stanislaus County has increased by 35 percent and the median home price in Modesto by 37
percent, while the median price in San Francisco County increased by 10 percent and in
Santa Clara County by 7 percent. 9 Essentially, the housing crisis that originated in the
Silicon Valley and Bay Area has shifted eastward to the San Joaquin Valley.
Figure 2- 5
Median Home Value, California Counties, 2000
9 Data from the California Association of Realtors generated using real estate database services. Data includes a mixture of
new and existing sales and both condos and single- family units.
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Figure 2- 6
Median Rent, California Counties, 2000
Average wages for Bay Area workers have increased in tandem with the cost of living,
making Stanislaus County homes inexpensive to those with jobs in Silicon Valley and other
Bay Area employment centers. Many who seek affordable housing are willing to make the
long commute between the Bay Area and Stanislaus County. The California Department of
Transportation estimates that approximately 23,000 Stanislaus County residents make this
long distance commute. 10 Trips over the Altamont Pass ( the principal roadway between the
San Joaquin Valley and the Bay Area) have increased by 400 percent since 1971, from
29,000 to 117,000.11
The rising demand for housing in Modesto is driven in part by commuters from the Bay
Area. With higher wages, Bay Area workers have the purchasing power to pay higher rents
and high prices for homes, pushing the cost of housing in Modesto to levels beyond the reach
of many existing Modesto residents. 12 The City intends, through the housing element
process, the HCD- administered five- county Inter Regional Partnership, and other policy
planning and implementation, to accommodate a more balanced allocation of local jobs and
local housing.
10 Stan COG. Regional Housing Needs Assessment. 2002. Page 22.
11 Ibid.
12 Nancy Cook, Executive Director of Community Housing and Shelter Services. Personal Communications, October 28,
2002; Dee Smith, Fair Housing Specialist. Personal Communications, October 28, 2002.
Data Source: U. S. Census, 2000.
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C. REGIONAL POPULATION AND ECONOMIC
CONTEXT
Modesto generally is considered part of the San Joaquin Valley, which follows the San
Joaquin River from Kern County in the south to San Joaquin County in the north, also
including the counties of Tulare, Kings, Fresno, Madera, Merced, and Stanislaus. With
approximately 3.3 million residents as of 2000, the major economic activity in the region is
agriculture, though in some parts of the valley, areas of job growth are not in farming. 13
Stanislaus County had 447,000 residents as of 2000, and the population is projected by Stan
COG to grow to over 826,000 by 2025, an increase of approximately 84 percent ( Table 2- 3).
Nearly all of this growth ( 97 percent) is to be directed to the County’s incorporated cities in
efforts to preserve the rich agricultural resources.
Table 2- 3
San Joaquin Valley Counties, 2000 Population
County 2000 Population
Madera 123,109
Kings 129,461
Merced 210,554
Tulare 368,021
Stanislaus 446,997
San Joaquin 563,598
Kern 661,645
Fresno 799,407
Total 3,302,792
Source: 2000 U. S. Census.
In the 2000 Cities/ County Visioning Project conducted by Stanislaus County and its
incorporated cities, several visions, goals, and actions were articulated in meetings with city
and County leaders. The Countywide Visioning Project involved government officials, local
business leaders, and educators in a three- year visioning process. The purpose of the process
was to create a vision for the future of Stanislaus County based on collaboration and
cooperation among local government bodies. 14 The first vision statement and set of actions
in that report deals with protecting agricultural land from unnecessary low- density sprawl:
Actions: The cities and County of Stanislaus will adopt general plans, policies and
agreements that will achieve the following:
1. More compact and clearly defined urban boundaries that avoid unnecessary
conversion of farmlands.
13 City of Modesto. Analysis of Impediments to Fair Housing. May 1996. Page 10.
14 County of Stanislaus web site. http:// www. co. stanislaus. ca. us/ visionproject. pdf. 2002.
Housing Needs Assessment
City of Modesto Housing Element April 27, 2004
2- 12
2. Protection of farmland outside the urban boundaries.
3. Expansion of city limits to include urbanized unincorporated areas that are
substantially surrounded by a city.
4. Compact urban development which encourages redevelopment of blighted areas,
“ in- fill” development of vacant and underutilized land, and a variety of affordable
housing.
5. Urban limit lines, providing for areas of open space, agriculture, very low density,
rural development, or green belts in which urban development cannot occur.
6. Tax and revenue policies that will support and encourage good land use decisions.
7. Transportation policies that support and implement the land use vision.
Housing, Households, and Household Types
Overall, the region is similar to California relative to the distribution of household types.
However, the San Joaquin Valley’s proportion of Hispanic persons is approximately 7
percentage points higher than the proportion of Hispanics in California, and the region has a
proportion of persons under age 18 that is approximately 7 percentage points higher than the
State as a whole. 15 Corresponding to the proportion of children, the representation of family
households, as a proportion of total households, is approximately 7 percentage points higher
in the region compared to California as a whole.
Different household types have different housing needs and different homeownership rates.
According to the State Department of Housing and Community Development ( HCD), the
demographic characteristics of the San Joaquin Valley region will result in an incremental
demand for homeownership in the region that will exceed the incremental demand for rental
housing by more than 50 percent between 1997 and 2020.16 The share of owner- occupied
housing in the region is greater by 1.4 percentage points than Modesto, and is greater than
that in California by 3.2 percentage points ( Table 2- 4). Among counties in the region, the
demand for homeownership will be strongest in Madera and Stanislaus counties and weakest
in Kings and Merced counties, according to HCD.
15 U. S. Census, 2000.
16 Department of Housing and Community Development. Housing Production Needs, 1997- 2020. 2000.
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Table 2- 4
Housing Tenure in San Joaquin Valley, Modesto, and California
San Joaquin Valley
Tenure Number
Regional
Percentage
Modesto
Percentage California
Owner- occupied housing units 620,540 60.1% 58.7% 57%
Renter- occupied housing units 412,600 39.9% 41.3% 43%
Source: U. S. Census, 2000.
Household Income
The San Joaquin Valley has lower median incomes than does California as a whole, but also
has a much lower cost of living than many regions in the State. Modesto’s median household
income is approximately 10 percent more than the San Joaquin Valley region but 15 percent
lower than the State’s. Of the income categories summarized in Table 2- 5, the region lags
behind California most significantly in the $ 100,000 – $ 149,000 range. More importantly, as
shown in Table 2- 6, compared to the East Bay counties, median income in the San Joaquin
Valley is approximately 35 percent lower than Alameda County ($ 55,946), 51 percent lower
than Santa Clara County ($ 74,335), 48 percent lower than San Mateo County ($ 70,819), 34
percent lower than San Francisco County ($ 55,221), and 42 percent lower than Contra Costa
County ($ 63,675). These disparities in income affect local residents’ ability to compete with
East Bay workers for housing in the region.
Table 2- 5
1999 Household Incomes: California, San Joaquin Valley, and Modesto
Income in 1999 Regional
%
Modesto
% California
Less than $ 10,000 11.1% 8.9% 8%
$ 10,000 to $ 14,999 7.6% 7.2% 6%
$ 15,000 to $ 24,999 15.2% 13.6% 12%
$ 25,000 to $ 34,999 13.8% 13.5% 11%
$ 35,000 to $ 49,999 16.6% 17.6% 15%
$ 50,000 to $ 74,999 18.1% 19.7% 19%
$ 75,000 to $ 99,999 8.9% 9.9% 12%
$ 100,000 to $ 149,999 5.9% 6.8% 10%
$ 150,000 to $ 199,999 1.4% 1.4% 3%
Median Household Income ($) $ 36,638 $ 40,394 $ 47,493
Source: U. S. Census, 2000.
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Table 2- 6
Median Household Income in Bay Area Counties
and San Joaquin Valley Region
County Median Household
Income
Compare with San
Joaquin Valley
Alameda $ 55,946 35% higher
Santa Clara $ 74,335 51% higher
San Mateo $ 70,819 48% higher
San Francisco $ 55,221 34% higher
Contra Costa $ 63,675 42% higher
Source: U. S. Census, 2000.
Employment
Current Employment Characteristics
As one of the most productive agricultural areas in the world, the central valley of California
produces more fruits, vegetables, and nuts than any region of comparable size in the United
States ( with more than 7 million acres under irrigation). Most of the central valley’s
agricultural activity is located in the San Joaquin Valley, where agriculture accounts for
approximately 32 percent of the total income and 37 percent of the employment. 17
Employment in the San Joaquin Valley has less representation in management and
professional occupations than California, and more representation in farming, fishing, and
fishing industries ( Table 2- 7). Dairy production, fruit and nut harvest, poultry, and cattle
production are the most prevalent types of agriculture in the County. 18 Except for fruit and
nut harvest that may have some influence on seasonal employment, dairy production,
poultry, and cattle production are year- round operations that typically do not rely on migrant
farm labor.
Table 2- 7
Occupational Distribution in Modesto, Region, California
Occupation Regional % Modesto % California %
Management, Professional 27.2% 28.4% 36%
Service 16.2% 15.9% 15%
Sales, Office 25.0% 27.7% 27%
Farming, fishing, forestry 6.8% 1.3% 1%
Construction, extraction 9.9% 10.6% 8%
Production, transportation 15.0% 16.1% 13%
Source: U. S. Census, 2000.
17 Employment Development Department. San Joaquin Valley Employment, 1998.
18 Employment Development Department County Snapshots, 2001.
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Stanislaus County has a higher share of agricultural related employment compared to the
State as a whole. According to the State Employment Development Department, in
Stanislaus County, the share of farm services jobs has increased while the share of farm
production jobs has decreased over the past ten years ( Figure 2- 7). Farm production jobs as a
total of all California employment has also decreased over the same period. Farm services
are those that support farming, and tend to be less seasonal and higher paying than farm
production jobs.
Figure 2- 7
Farming Share of Total Employment, Stanislaus County and California
0.00%
1.00%
2.00%
3.00%
4.00%
5.00%
6.00%
7.00%
8.00%
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
Stanislaus County Farm
Services
Stanislaus County Farm
Production Employment
California Farm Services
Employment
California Farm Production
Source: California Employment Development Department web site, 2002.
Regional Jobs- Housing Balance
Assessing the spatial relationship between jobs and housing is not normally relevant at the
regional level, where jobs- housing balance is often assumed. However, given the relatively
high cost of housing and the concentration of jobs ( especially new jobs) in the Bay Area
relative to the surrounding regions, the regional distribution of jobs and housing has
important planning and quality of life implications. An imbalance of jobs and housing
creates issues with traffic congestion, air quality, water quality, fiscal disparity, and housing
affordability.
Both Modesto and Stanislaus counties have a higher percentage of residents working in
another county compared with California overall, with correspondingly high average
commute times ( Table 2- 8). The counties of San Joaquin, Merced, Madera, and Kings also
have a high percentage of out- of- county commuters. As shown in Table 2- 9, commute times
in Modesto have increased between 1990 and 2000, with drastic increases in the number of
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City of Modesto Housing Element April 27, 2004
2- 16
people commuting 20 minutes or more to work ( 47 percent increase). However, the number
of people commuting less than 5 minutes to work also increased by 13 percent.
Table 2- 8
Commuting in California, San Joaquin Valley Region, Modesto
Workers 16 years and over
Geographic Area
Mean
Commute
Time
( minutes)
% Worked
Outside
County of
Residence
Modesto 25.7 19.5
Stanislaus 26.8 20.9
California 27.7 17.1
Fresno 22.2 7.4
Kern 23.2 6.4
Kings 20.8 20.7
Madera 26.3 31.2
Merced 26.0 25.0
Tulare 21.9 11.8
San Joaquin 29.2 23.5
Source: U. S. Census, 2000.
Table 2- 9
Modesto Average Commute Times, 1990 and 2000
Travel Time to Work 1990 % 2000 %
% Change
1990- 2000
Less than 5 Minutes 1,953 3% 2,208 3% 13%
5 to 9 Minutes 9,216 15% 9,283 13% 1%
10 to 19 Minutes 29,789 47% 28,960 40% - 3%
20 Minutes or More 21,886 35% 32,268 44% 47%
Total 62,844 100% 72,719 100% 16%
Source: U. S. Census, 2000.
Employment and Population Projections
The region is expected to grow significantly in the future, and Modesto is expected to be one
of the leaders in both population and employment growth. Based on figures provided by
Stan COG, only the city of Tracy, located just northwest of Modesto between Stockton and
the Bay Area, is expected to have a higher average annual growth rate between 2000 and
2025, compared to Modesto. Of San Joaquin, Merced, and Stanislaus counties, Stanislaus
County is expected to have the highest annual growth, as shown in Table 2- 10.
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Table 2- 10
Regional Population Growth
City 2000 2010 2020
Average Annual
Growth
2000- 2025
% Change,
2000- 2025
Modesto 188,856 302,546 418,562 5.31% 133%
Ceres 34,609 47,645 60,053 3.47% 87%
Turlock 55,810 73,707 90,911 2.98% 75%
Unincorp. Stanislaus Co. 110,269 113,427 115,574 0.28% 7%
Total Stanislaus County 446,997 611,510 785,008 3.39% 85%
Merced 63,893 92,014 108,505 3.22% 81%
Unincorp. Merced Co. 70,620 84,182 106,585 2.85% 71%
Total Merced County 215,256 273,923 337,935 2.93% 73%
Lodi 57,900 63,787 69,156 1.02% 25%
Manteca 49,500 64,248 77,699 2.98% 74%
Stockton 247,400 311,033 374,631 2.57% 64%
Tracy 54,200 87,456 117,788 6.14% 153%
Unincorp. San Joaquin Co. 131,400 134,881 138,056 0.26% 7%
Total San Joaquin County 566,600 700,095 821,851 2.36% 59%
Source: Stanislaus COG, San Joaquin COG, Merced CAG.
Note: Stanislaus COG population information was amended to eliminate the projections for the years 2001- 2019. The
projections above use the average annual growth for the cities and Stanislaus County to estimate the 2005, 2010, and
2015 populations. Annual average growth for cities and counties outside of Stanislaus County were estimated using
2025 population estimates compared to 2000 populations.
The population increase anticipated by the City’s Urban Area General Plan Master
Environmental Impact Report is 390,000 by 2025, while the estimated holding capacity of
the planning area is 400,000 ( Table 2- 11).
Table 2- 11
Modesto Growth Capacity
Area Population Employment Housing
Units
Single- Family
Units
Multi- Family
Units
Planned Urbanizing
Area
148,625 147,898 50,385 39,317 11,068
Baseline Development
Area
245,627 111,384 85,839 63,990 21,849
Redevelopment Area 5,772 44,638 2,105 193 1,912
Total 400,024 303,920 138,329 103,500 ( 75%) 34,829 ( 25%)
Source: City of Modesto, 2002.
Within the Stan COG region, employment growth is also focused on Modesto, which Stan
COG anticipates will add more jobs than the rest of the region combined. The average
annual employment growth mirrors that of population growth, as shown in Table 2- 12. The
population projections from Stan COG reflect the desire to accommodate a more balanced
geographic match between jobs and population growth. The County’s total employment in
2020 is projected to be 306,698, which represents an 80 percent increase over the current
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City of Modesto Housing Element April 27, 2004
2- 18
level. Not including Modesto, the County is expected to have just a 43 percent increase
between 2000 and 2020, according to Stan COG figures.
Table 2- 12
Employment Growth in Stan COG Region, 1990- 2025
Employment 1990 1999 2020 2025
Target
% Annual
Increase,
1999- 2025
Ceres 9,900 12,128 22,479 24,233 3.84%
Hughson 1,228 1,670 3,067 3,264 3.67%
Modesto 65,325 75,645 171,517 180,377 5.33%
Newman 1,397 1,883 3,337 3,531 3.37%
Oakdale 4,519 4,923 8,863 9,341 3.45%
Patterson 3,087 3,846 6,839 7,314 3.47%
Riverbank 2,944 4,334 7,722 8,305 3.52%
Turlock 16,714 19,766 34,623 37,185 3.39%
Waterford 1,503 1,849 3,343 3,559 3.56%
Unincorporated 34,993 42,082 44,908 45,901 0.35%
Total County 141,610 170,125 306,698 323,010 3.46%
Source: Stan COG, 2002.
Regional Economic Development Trends and Initiatives
The economic conditions in the region are tied to national trends and policy, statewide
economic events and legislation, and many other factors. However, some characteristics of
the region set it apart economically from the rest of California and the nation, and these
economic characteristics have important implications for housing policy.
The cost of living in the Valley is lower than the Bay Area and other parts of metropolitan
California. Agriculture remains the highest valued sector of the economy, and agricultural
trends can have ripple effects through the rest of the economy. Due in part to the disparity in
cost of living between the Valley and the nearby Bay Area, traffic congestion is worsening,
especially during peak hours, and is impacting the ability of many regional agencies to
provide adequate transportation infrastructure for this expanding demand. This traffic
condition is viewed as adversely impacting economic development.
In the Central Valley, some of the key economic trends include: 19
Job growth that has eclipsed that of California as a whole, but is slower than labor
force growth20
19 Great Valley Center. Assessing the Region Via Indicators. May, 1999.
20 Job growth and labor force growth are similar, but not identical. The labor force may grow, for example, as large
numbers of young people enter the labor force, or as men or women that were previously full- time homemakers, seek
employment. This would not necessarily be associated with job growth.
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Unemployment that is consistently higher than the rest of the State due to seasonal
labor
Job growth led by addition of service jobs
In Stanislaus County, some of the key economic trends include:
Decline in agricultural production jobs
Job growth in service sector ( Table 2- 13)
Table 2- 13
Stanislaus County Occupations with Job Growth, 1999- 2006
Annual Averages
Occupation 1999 2006
Absolute
Change
Percent
Change
Retail Sales 5,280 6,420 1,140 21.6
Cashiers 3,870 4,810 940 24.3
Clerks 3,200 3,810 610 19.1
Food Service 2,580 3,110 530 20.5
Managers, Executives 3,320 3,830 510 15.4
Truck Drivers, Light 2,160 2,620 460 21.3
Teacher Aides 1,550 1,960 410 26.5
Waiters and Waitresses 1,910 2,310 400 20.9
Truck Drivers, Heavy 2,350 2,730 380 16.2
Elementary School Teachers 3,220 3,580 360 11.2
Assembly Workers 1,130 1,430 300 26.5
Source: Employment Development Department, 2002.
The Stanislaus County Board of Supervisors established the Stanislaus County Workforce
Investment Board ( WIB), charged with strategic planning and policy oversight of a system
for workforce development. Stanislaus County provides access to Workforce Development
Services to employers, job and information seekers, serving an average of 5000 customers a
month per center. Partners are Stanislaus County ( represented by the Community Service
Agency and Department of Employment and Training), the Stanislaus County Economic
Development Corporation ( SCEDCO), and the local office of the California Employment
Development Department.
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D. LOCAL POPULATION AND ECONOMIC
CHARACTERISTICS
Population
As of 2000, Modesto’s total population was 188,856, representing an average annual increase
of 3.8 percent between 1980 and 2000 and 1.5 percent between 1990 and 2000.21 Modesto’s
15 percent increase in population between 1990 and 2000 nearly mirrored the 14 percent
population increase in California during the same period. The 2002 population is estimated
at 199,000, a 5.4 percent increase over the 2000 population.
According to the most recent population projections adopted by Stan COG, population
growth is expected to increase dramatically over the next 20 years, compared to the last 20
years. Population growth in Modesto is also anticipated to be relatively greater than
surrounding communities, as shown in Table 2- 14. Between 1950 and 1990, Modesto’s
share of the County population increased from 14 percent to 45 percent. 22 As of 2000, the
Modesto population was approximately 42 percent of the County total and according to Stan
COG is expected to increase to more than 53 percent of the County total by 2025. Overall,
Modesto is projected by Stan COG to account for more than 66 percent of the County
population growth between 2000 and 2025. However, the City’s General Plan Master
Environmental Impact Report ( MEIR) projects a more realistic outlook of growth given the
City’s infrastructure and resource constraints and the desire to maintain and enhance the
quality of life for the community. According to the MEIR, population in Modesto may reach
400,000 by 2025, as compared to the Stan COG’s projection of 418,562 by 2020.
In general, Modesto became more ethnically diverse between 1990 and 2000 ( see Table 2-
15). The White population decreased as a share of the City population from 73 percent to 60
percent during the census period. While the African American population increased by
approximately 66 percent, compared to only 4 percent increase for California as a whole, the
overall representation of African Americans in Modesto is low. The Hispanic population
increased significantly by 79 percent, while for California the increase was approximately 43
percent. The number of Asians and Pacific Islanders, however, decreased in Modesto despite
a 39 percent increase statewide.
Cultural practices, which are often related to ethnic backgrounds, have implications for
housing policy. It is important, as Modesto becomes more diverse, for the evolving set of
housing programs and policies to be attuned to any special needs of different populations,
and for the City to take necessary steps to involve residents of different backgrounds in the
Housing Element planning process. The large Hispanic increase highlights a special need to
ensure that housing services are accessible to Spanish- speaking individuals.
21 U. S. Census, 1980, 1990, and 2000.
22 City of Modesto. Analysis of Impediments to Fair Housing. May 1996. Page 10.
Housing Needs Assessment
City of Modesto Housing Element April 27, 2004
2- 21
Table 2- 14
Modesto and Surrounding Communities Populations, 1980- 2020
Jurisdiction 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
#
Change
1990-
2000
%
Change
1990-
2000
%
Change
2000-
2010
%
Change
2000-
2020
Modesto 106,963 164,730 188,856 302,546 418,562 24,126 15% 60% 122%
Turlock 26,287 42,224 55,810 73,707 90,911 13,586 32% 32% 63%
Ceres 13,281 26,413 34,609 47,645 60,053 8,196 31% 38% 74%
Stockton 149,779 210,943 243,771 311,033 374,631 32,828 16% 28% 54%
Merced 36,499 56,155 63,893 92,014 108,505 7,738 14% 44% 70%
Lodi 35,221 51,874 56,999 63,787 69,156 5,125 10% 12% 21%
Source: Stanislaus COG, San Joaquin COG, Merced CAG.
Note: Stanislaus COG population information was amended to eliminate the projections for the years 2001- 2019. The
projections above use the adopted annual increases for the cities and Stanislaus County to estimate the 2005, 2010,
and 2015 populations. Annual increases for communities outside of Stanislaus County were estimated using 2025
population estimates compared to 2000 populations.
Table 2- 15
Race and Ethnicity in Modesto and California, 1900 and 2000
Modesto California
1990 2000
Change
’ 90-‘ 00
Change
’ 90-‘ 00
Race/ Ethnicity # % # % # % %
White 119,529 73% 112,466 60% - 7,063 - 6% - 7%
African American 4,234 3% 7,013 4% 2,779 66% 4%
Native American 1,416 1% 1,435 1% 19 1% - 3%
Asian or Pacific Islander 12,384 8% 11,956 6% - 428 - 3% 39%
Hispanic 26,920 16% 48,310 26% 21,390 79% 43%
Other 247 0% 7,676 4% 7,429 N/ A 28%
Total 164,730 100% 188,856 100% 24,126 15% 14%
Source: U. S. Census, 2000.
Note: Other in 2000 includes those that cite two or more races. N/ A = not applicable.
Housing Needs Assessment
City of Modesto Housing Element April 27, 2004
2- 22
Concentration of Minority Population
Census data is used to identify portions of the City where, due to large numbers of people
with particular ethnic backgrounds, certain services may be necessary to ensure an adequate
provision of housing. In areas where the City’s minority population is concentrated,
provision of housing information and services in different languages may be necessary, and
housing discrimination issues may be particularly important.
In Modesto, areas southwest of Downtown and in general southwest of the Highway 99
corridor have higher concentrations of minority households ( Figure 2- 8). The area northwest
of Paradise Road and southwest of Highway 99 has minority concentrations of more than 60
percent, and is an area with older housing stock, lower home values, lower rental costs, and
lower median incomes. In the eastern part of the City, east of El Vista Avenue and near the
southern City boundary is another area of relatively high minority concentration. Most of the
northern and northeastern portions of the City have low minority concentrations – 30 percent
or less.
Household Types
A “ household” is any group of people occupying a housing unit. Though most people think
of a household as a family, there are many other types of households, including single
persons living alone, families living together, or unrelated persons who share living quarters.
Persons living in retirement or convalescent homes, dormitories, or other group living
situations are not considered households. Both household size and household type are
important to consider when planning for housing since different types and sizes of
households require different types of housing and potentially different community services.
Modesto had approximately 58,000 households in 1990 and 65,000 households in 2000,
representing an increase of 12 percent, close to California’s 11 percent increase ( Table 2- 16).
Surprisingly, Modesto had a fairly large increase in married couples with no children ( 11
percent), but numeric and proportional decreases in married couples with children ( 739, 4
percent). This pattern is somewhat unusual since California had a 13 percent increase in
families with children during the same period. Married couples without children generally
have different housing needs compared to those families with children.
108
132
99
99
Claus Rd
Tully Rd
Claribel Rd
Coffee Rd
Sylvan Ave
Oakdale Rd
Mitchell Rd
219
Bangs Ave
Carpenter Rd
Rumble Rd
Woodland Ave
Sisk Rd
Standiford Ave
PARADISE RD
9th St
Floyd Ave
Dale Rd
Whitmore Ave
Crows Landing Rd
Milnes Rd
Parker Rd
Terminal Ave
Snyder Ave
Whitmore Ave
La Loma Ave.
Briggsmore Ave
El Vista Ave
Hatch Rd
Pelandale Ave
Rumble Rd
Mitchell Rd.
Central Ave
Bodem St
Paradise Rd
Ceres
Empire
Salida
Riverbank
4.02
15
31
5.08
20.02
5.01
30.01
6.01
21
9.12
13
22
14
19
24
18
5.04
4.04 4.03
6.02
5.05 5.06
8.01
25.01
23.01
11
5.07
12
9.05
20.04
9.06
5.03
28.02
17
8.05
16.03
10.01
8.03
9.07
9.08
9.10
25.02
27.02
9.09
28.03
20.03
27.01
23.02
10.02
8.06
26.04
8.07
9.11
26.02
26.05
16.01
26.03
3.03 3.04
16.04
City of Modesto Housing Element
Concentration of Minority
Households
GIS maps prepared by: Cotton/ Bridges/ Associates
Source: City of Modesto and 2000 Census ( SF- 1 and SF- 3)
Figure 2- 8
2- 23
Ethnic and Racial Concentrations ( Block Group)
0 0.5 1 2 3 4
Miles
9.10 Census Tracts ( 2000)
County Islands
City Boundary
City of Modesto Ethnic and Racial Average is 30.4%.
Ethnic and Racial Composition includes Hispanic, African- American,
Asian, Pacific Islander, American Indian, and Two or More Races.
0.0% - 30.4% Concentration
30.5% - 60.8% Moderate Concentration
60.9% - 100% High Concentration
Housing Needs Assessment
City of Modesto Housing Element April 27, 2004
2- 24
Table 2- 16
Household Types
Modesto California
1990 2000
Change
’ 90 – ‘ 00
Change
’ 90 – ‘ 00
Household Type # % # % # % %
Families 41,894 72% 46,642 72% 4,748 11% 11%
Married w/ Children 17,758 31% 17,019 26% - 739 - 4% 13%
Married No Children 14,829 26% 16,432 25% 1,603 11% 3%
Other Families 9,307 16% 13,191 20% 3,884 42% N/ A
Non- Families 16,064 28% 18,317 28% 2,253 14% 11%
Singles 12,789 22% 14,633 23% 1,844 14% 12%
Other Non- Families 3,275 6% 3,684 6% 409 12% N/ A
Total Households 57,958 100% 64,959 100% 7,001 12% 11%
Avg. Household Size 2.84 2.86 0.02 1% 3%
Avg. Family Size 3.29 3.36 0.07 2% 3%
Source: U. S. Census 1990 and 2000.
Note: N/ A = not available
The group that experienced the most significant growth is “ other” families, comprising of
various combination of family members living together such as single- parent households,
with or without extended family members, and unrelated persons. Single- parent households
comprised 13 percent of the Modesto households in 2000, an increase from 9 percent in
1990, and represented approximately two- thirds of the “ other families” in 2000. Specifically,
among the single- parent households, 74 percent are female- headed households. In general,
the income- earning ability and per- capita income of single- parent households, and
particularly for female- headed households, are lower than other family types. A community
with a large proportion of single- parent households would need increased attention to
affordable housing and child care services.
These trends and patterns that occurred in the 1990s resulted in only a slight increase in
average family size ( by 2 percent) and a slight increase in average household size ( by 1
percent). Overall, Modesto’s average household and average family size experienced smaller
increases and were still smaller than those of the County ( 3.03 and 3.47, respectively) and
those of California ( 2.87 and 3.43, respectively) in 2000. The 2002 average household size is
estimated by the California Department of Finance to be approximately 2.9 persons per
household ( Table 2- 17). The prevalence of smaller households in Modesto suggests that the
City‘ s housing needs would be skewed toward smaller single- family homes, condominiums,
townhomes, and rental housing, compared to the County and California as a whole.
Housing Needs Assessment
City of Modesto Housing Element April 27, 2004
2- 25
Table 2- 17
Modesto 2002 Estimates
Total Total Households Vacancy Rate Average Household Size
198,633 69,848 3.30 2.9
Source: California Department of Finance, 2001.
Tenure
Modesto is a family- oriented community, where most prefer owning their own homes to
renting. Homeownership rates in Modesto and Stanislaus County were higher than
California as a whole, especially for the 25- to 34- year- old range ( Table 2- 18). 23 People in
this age range are usually first- time homebuyers with smaller household size. In 2000,
homeownership rates continue to be higher for Modesto and Stanislaus County residents, but
the differences compared to California are less pronounced than in 1990.
Table 2- 18
Tenure by Age
Modesto
Age of Householder Number
Rate of Tenure
by
Householder
Age
California
Rate of Tenure
by
Householder
Age
Stanislaus
County Rate of
Tenure by
Householder
Age
Total: 65,103 100% 100% 100%
Owner occupied: 38,316 59% 57% 62%
Householder 15 to 24 years 455 14% 11% 17%
Householder 25 to 34 years 4,266 39% 31% 43%
Householder 35 to 44 years 8,968 57% 54% 60%
Householder 45 to 54 years 9,322 66% 66% 69%
Householder 55 to 59 years 3,453 74% 72% 76%
Householder 60 to 64 years 2,783 76% 74% 76%
Householder 65 to 74 years 4,804 74% 76% 77%
Householder 75 to 84 years 3,480 72% 75% 75%
Householder 85 years and over 785 56% 66% 66%
Renter occupied: 26,787 41% 43% 38%
Householder 15 to 24 years 2,803 86% 89% 83%
Householder 25 to 34 years 6,725 61% 69% 57%
Householder 35 to 44 years 6,754 43% 46% 40%
Householder 45 to 54 years 4,727 34% 34% 31%
Householder 55 to 59 years 1,222 26% 28% 24%
Householder 60 to 64 years 896 24% 26% 24%
Householder 65 to 74 years 1,710 26% 24% 23%
Householder 75 to 84 years 1,339 28% 25% 25%
Householder 85 years and over 611 44% 34% 34%
Source: U. S. Census, 2000.
23 Department of Housing and Community Development, Statewide Housing Plan, 1997.
Housing Needs Assessment
City of Modesto Housing Element April 27, 2004
2- 26
One way to determine demand for different types of housing relative to the supply is to look
at prices and affordability. Table 2- 19 shows housing costs as a percentage of income ( which
effectively controls for different costs of living) for Modesto, the San Joaquin Valley region,
and California as a whole. Overall, a higher proportion of households in Modesto pay more
than 30 percent of their income on housing than those in San Joaquin Valley. Specifically,
Modesto has a higher percentage of renter- households using more than 35 percent of their
household income for housing, while the share of owner- households paying more than 35
percent of their income for housing is lower than for California as a whole. This suggests
that, as of 2000, affordable rental housing was more difficult to find than for- sale housing in
the City.
Compared to East Bay counties such as Alameda, the proportions of households paying more
than 30 percent of income on housing is higher for renter- households ( 45 percent) and lower
for owner- households ( 28 percent) in Modesto. For example, the proportion of households
expending more than 30 percent of household income on housing is 31 percent for owners
and 41 percent for renters in Alameda County, and 30 percent for owners in Contra Costa
County. In 1990, 46 percent of renters and 26 percent of owners paid more than 30 percent
of their incomes on housing in Modesto. The increase in owner housing cost burden and
persistence in rental housing cost burden may be due to an influx of commuting households
with higher household incomes, pushing up the housing prices.
Table 2- 19
Housing Costs as Percentage of Household Income
Percentage of Household Income
Spent on Housing Modesto San Joaquin
Valley California
Rental Housing
Less than 15 percent 13.9% 15.0% 14.6%
15 to 19 percent 14.5% 13.3% 13.6%
20 to 24 percent 12.4% 12.0% 13.1%
25 to 29 percent 11.3% 9.9% 11.1%
30 to 34 percent 8.0% 7.7% 8.2%
35 percent or more 36.6% 34.8% 34.1%
Owner- Occupied Housing
Less than 15 percent 29.1% 29.0% 28.0%
15 to 19 percent 16.2% 15.7% 14.6%
20 to 24 percent 14.4% 15.6% 14.1%
25 to 29 percent 11.2% 11.9% 11.3%
30 to 34 percent 7.6% 7.1% 8.0%
35 percent or more 20.7% 20.1% 23.2%
Source: U. S. Census, 2000.
Housing Needs Assessment
City of Modesto Housing Element April 27, 2004
2- 27
Household Incomes
Among the many factors influencing housing opportunity, household income is one of the
most important. With limited household income, trade- offs among basic life needs can
constrain housing choice and opportunity. Income levels are highly variable among
households and affect choices such as tenure, housing type, and location.
Modesto’s income levels tend to be higher than in the region and lower than in the State,
while poverty levels tend to be higher than statewide levels and lower than the region ( Table
2- 20). The region’s higher proportion of lower- income households and households living in
poverty may be an indicator of the high level of agricultural employment in the region.
Overall, female- headed families are more impacted by poverty than other family types. As
discussed before, the group experiencing the largest growth in Modesto is “ other families,”
which is comprised primarily with single- parent households, particularly female- headed
households. The need for housing and services for female- headed households with children
in Modesto is on the rise.
Table 2- 20
Income in Modesto, Region, State
Geographic
Area
Median
Household
Income
Median
Family
Income
Per Capita
Income
% below
Poverty
Level
( Families)
% below
Poverty
Level
( Female-
Headed
Families)
% below
Poverty
Level
( Individuals)
Modesto $ 40,394 $ 45,681 $ 17,797 12.2% 29.6% 15.7%
Region $ 36,638 $ 40,140 $ 15,541 16.0% 36.5% 20.5%
California $ 47,493 $ 53,025 $ 22,711 10.6% 25.0% 14.2%
Source: U. S. Census, 2000.
As shown in Table 2- 21, owner- households are better represented in the higher income
categories than are renter- households. Elderly renter- households and large family renters are
particularly concentrated in the extremely low and low- income categories ( less than 50
percent of Area Median Income). Without adequate rental housing choice and affordability,
lower- income households may experience overcrowding or have to assume a housing cost
burden, among other problems.
Housing Needs Assessment
City of Modesto Housing Element April 27, 2004
2- 28
Table 2- 21
Income Level by Tenure
Income Level ( as % of Area Household Type Median Income)
0- 30% 31- 50% 51- 80% 81- 95% 95%+ Total
Renter
Total Households 14% 20% 22% 8% 36% 100%
Elderly 19% 38% 23% 7% 12% 100%
Small Family 16% 14% 20% 9% 40% 100%
Large Family 13% 26% 27% 7% 27% 100%
Other 9% 14% 20% 8% 48% 100%
Owner
Total Households 4% 6% 11% 7% 72% 100%
Elderly 9% 15% 23% 11% 43% 100%
Small Family 2% 2% 6% 5% 85% 100%
Large Family 2% 4% 9% 9% 76% 100%
Other 4% 4% 10% 7% 75% 100%
Total 8% 11% 15% 8% 58% 100%
Source: HUD CHAS, 1993.
Low Income Target Areas
The previous information deals with income at the household level for the City as a whole.
Planning for the City’s housing needs also requires some understanding of the variability of
household incomes, housing stock, and other information at the neighborhood level. In some
cities, neighborhoods with higher concentrations of lower income households experience
deferred maintenance and instability, which can create problems related to adequate housing.
Lower- income households are more common near Modesto’s downtown and along the
Highway 99 corridor, as well as the airport area and along the Tuolumne River. Figure 2- 9
shows low- income areas of the City by Census block group, as determined by HUD. 24 These
are many of the same areas of the City that have relatively older housing stock and lower
median gross rental rates.
24 Low- Income Target Areas include block groups with more than 51 percent of the population earning no more than 80
percent of the County Median Family Income.
108
132
99
99
Claus Rd
Tully Rd
Claribel Rd
Coffee Rd
Sylvan Ave
Oakdale Rd
Mitchell Rd
219
Bangs Ave
Carpenter Rd
Rumble Rd
Woodland Ave
Sisk Rd
Standiford Ave
PARADISE RD
9th St
Floyd Ave
Dale Rd
Whitmore Ave
Crows Landing Rd
Milnes Rd
Parker Rd
Terminal Ave
Snyder Ave
Whitmore Ave
La Loma Ave.
Briggsmore Ave
El Vista Ave
Hatch Rd
Pelandale Ave
Rumble Rd
Mitchell Rd.
Central Ave
Bodem St
Paradise Rd
Ceres
Empire
Salida
Riverbank
4.02
15
31
5.08
20.02
5.01
30.01
6.01
21
9.12
13
22
14
19
24
18
5.04
4.04 4.03
6.02
5.05 5.06
8.01
25.01
23.01
11
5.07
12
9.05
20.04
9.06
5.03
28.02
17
8.05
16.03
10.01
8.03
9.07
9.08
9.10
25.02
27.02
9.09
28.03
20.03
27.01
23.02
10.02
8.06
26.04
8.07
9.11
26.02
26.05
16.01
26.03
3.03 3.04
16.04
City of Modesto Housing Element
Low- Income Target
Areas
GIS maps prepared by: Cotton/ Bridges/ Associates
Source: City of Modesto, 2000 Census ( SF- 1 and SF- 3) and
U. S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, 2000.
Figure 2- 9
2- 29
Low- Income Target Areas
Census Tracts ( 2000)
County Islands
City Boundary
9.10
0 0.5 1 2 3 4
Miles
Low- Income Target
Groups defined by
census block groups
with 51% or more low
and moderate income
population
Housing Needs Assessment
City of Modesto Housing Element April 27, 2004
2- 30
Employment
The types of jobs held by Modesto residents, as mentioned earlier, mirror those of the region
and California as a whole. During the census period ( between 1990 and 2000), service
occupations had the largest increase for Modesto residents, which is typical of the time
period for most cities in California. The proportion of Modesto residents employed in
farming and as machine operators/ laborers decreased. Overall, Modesto’s employed
population increased by 10 percent, while the overall population increased by 15 percent
( Table 2- 22). Major employers in Modesto include those associated with agriculture, health
care, and government ( Table 2- 23). These industries typically offer a large proportion of
lower- paying jobs.
Table 2- 22
Occupations of Modesto Residents, 1990 and 2000
1990 Occupation 2000 % Change
# % # % 1990 – 2000
Managerial/ Professional 16,729 24% 21,760 28% 30%
Sales, Technical, Admin. 23,274 33% 21,200 28% - 9%
Service Occupations 8,684 12% 12,206 16% 41%
Production, Craft & Repair 9,103 13% 12,349 16% 36%
Operators/ Fabricators/ Laborers 10,511 15% 8,079 11% - 23%
Farming, Forestry, and Fishery 1,362 2% 973 1% - 29%
Total Employed Residents 69,663 100% 76,567 100% 10%
Source: U. S. Census, 1990, 2000.
Note: Occupation categories changed slightly between the 1990 and 2000 Censuses.
Table 2- 23
Major Employers in Modesto
Employer Type of Services
County of Stanislaus Individual and Family Services
Doctor's Medical Center Hospitals
JM Equipment Machinery, Equipment, and Supplies
Memorial Medical Center Hospitals
Modesto Bee Newspapers
Modesto Junior College Colleges and Universities
Prompt Care- Memorial Hospital Hospitals
Raycor Division General Industrial Machinery
Save Mart Supermarkets Inc Grocery Stores
Stanislaus Food Products Preserved Fruits and Vegetables
Sysco Food Svc of Modesto Inc Groceries and Related Products
Tri Valley Growers Preserved Fruits and Vegetables
Source: Data from the California Employment Development Department.
Housing Needs Assessment
City of Modesto Housing Element April 27, 2004
2- 31
While some Modesto residents work in higher- paying occupations, many others work in the
service sector, providing essential services to residents and businesses in the community.
These residents may not be able to afford adequate housing in the City. Table 2- 24 shows
the average salary of selected jobs in Modesto. Many of these are low- paying jobs that fall
within the lower- income categories. The City is expected to see the addition of an estimated
106,000 jobs by 2020, many of which, particularly those in the service sector, will be lower
paying. Housing costs, as estimated by the median home price, have increased dramatically
– by 37 percent in Modesto between 2000 and 2002.25 As a result, homeownership is
becoming increasingly difficult to achieve for moderate- income working professionals, and
is almost out of reach for lower- income households.
Table 2- 24
Modesto Annual Salaries, Selected Occupations, 2000
Occupation
Mean
Annual Wage
% of County
Average Income
Social and Community Service Managers $ 44,140 101%
Community and Social Services Occupations $ 36,863 84%
Child, Family, and School Social Workers $ 35,377 81%
Medical and Public Health Social Workers $ 50,531 115%
Health Educators $ 23,029 52%
Social and Human Service Assistants $ 27,015 62%
Clergy $ 16,657 38%
Preschool Teachers, Except Special Education $ 22,636 52%
Special Education Teachers, Middle School $ 54,796 125%
Emergency Medical Technicians and Paramedics $ 21,345 49%
Healthcare Support Occupations $ 23,344 53%
Home Health Aides $ 19,412 44%
Nursing Aides, Orderlies, and Attendants $ 18,721 43%
Dental Assistants $ 23,403 53%
Medical Assistants $ 27,956 64%
Child Care Workers $ 17,160 39%
Total all occupations $ 30,977 71%
Source: California Employment Development Department
Note: County Median Income in 2000 was $ 43,900.
Unemployment rates in 2000 were slightly lower in Stanislaus County ( 10.4 percent) and
Modesto ( 9.3 percent) than in 1990 – 11.8 percent and 10.5 percent, respectively. As of
October 2002, the unemployment rate in Modesto ( 9.2 percent) continued to be lower than
Stanislaus County ( 10.3 percent), but higher than that for California ( 6.2 percent), though the
California data is seasonally adjusted, while the County and City data are not. 26
25 According to second quarter median home sales price data from the California Association of Realtors.
26 Employment Development Department web site, 2002.
Housing Needs Assessment
City of Modesto Housing Element April 27, 2004
2- 32
Jobs- to- Housing Ratio
Modesto’s jobs- to- households ratio is higher than that of San Joaquin County, at 1.1,
according to Stan COG estimates, though it is unclear to what extent the jobs are
geographically matched with the population ( Table 2- 25). 27 The Census identifies 76,567
employed persons in Modesto, averaging 1.12 wage- earners per household. A jobs- housing
ratio of 1.1 seems to indicate that the City does offer an adequate number of jobs. The jobs-housing
issues confronting the City seem to relate more to the spatial mismatch between the
jobs located in Modesto and the people working those jobs, as evidenced by the large number
of commuters crossing the Altamont Pass daily. Of equal concern is the mismatch between
the types of jobs offered and associated pay scales, and the costs of housing in the City.
Table 2- 25
Households and Employment, Modesto and Stanislaus County
Geographic Area Households Employment
Jobs to
Households
Ceres 10,967 12,128 1.1
Hughson 1,263 1,670 1.3
Modesto 67,959 75,645 1.1
Newman 2,047 1,883 0.9
Oakdale 5,778 4,923 0.9
Patterson 3,147 3,846 1.2
Riverbank 3,907 4,334 1.1
Turlock 18,658 19,766 1.1
Waterford 1,873 1,849 0.9
Unincorporated County 39,328 42,082 1.1
Total County 154,927 168,126 1.1
Source: Stan COG, 2002; U. S. Census, 2000.
According to Census and Stan COG figures, the number of jobs in Modesto increased more
than the housing stock or number of employed residents. The jobs- housing ratio increased
by 5 percent between 1990 and 2000 ( Table 2- 26). The City also experienced a greater
growth in residents employed in service and production/ craft/ repair occupations that tend to
pay lower wages ( refer to Table 2- 24). On one hand, the City is facing the difficult issue of
addressing the need for housing affordable to residents at these pay scales; on the other hand,
the City must diversify its employment base to offer well- paid jobs to residents and to reduce
the need for commuting to the East Bay for employment opportunities. As a community
striving to achieve a balance in housing and job opportunities, improve quality of life, and
become a more sustainable community, the City must devise and implement an economic
development strategy that works hand- in- hand with the housing strategy.
27 Stan COG. Regional Housing Needs Assessment. Appendix III. October 2002. The Stan COG estimates are for 1999
and the figures shown do not reflect the 2000 Census, but are useful in comparing jobs to household balances.
Housing Needs Assessment
City of Modesto Housing Element April 27, 2004
2- 33
Table 2- 26
Households and Employment, Modesto 1990- 2000
Year
Total
Housing
Units
Jobs in
Modesto
Jobs to
Housing
Ratio
Modesto Employed
Residents
1990 60,878 65,325 1.07 69,663
2000 67,179 75,645 1.12 76,567
Percent Change, 1990- 2000 10% 16% 5% 10%
Source: U. S. Census, 2000; Stan COG, 2002.
Local Economic Development Trends and Initiatives
As discussed above, the jobs- to- housing ratio in Modesto is improving and is better on the
aggregate level than in many other cities in the region. However, because of an increasing
number of residents who work out of the City and County, and an increasing number of
workers in Modesto who live elsewhere, traffic congestion is becoming worse, impacting the
City’s ability to provide adequate transportation infrastructure and expand economic
opportunities. The Inter- Regional Partnership ( IRP), a partnership formed in 1998 consisting
of 15 selected officials from 5 counties — Alameda, Contra Costa, San Joaquin, Santa Clara,
and Stanislaus – indicates that the most effective incentives for economic development in
job- poor areas would be those that:
1. Improve their competitive position in the marketplace by reducing the cost of off-site
improvements;
2. Improve the quality of the workforce; and/ or,
3. Reduce the time for processing local development proposals. 28
In the City, though plenty of land may be zoned to allow economic development, the cost of
providing infrastructure to this land, especially transportation infrastructure, is seen as a
constraint to development. 29 Adaptive reuse of redevelopment areas and existing buildings is
a potential mechanism for economic development with less- burdening infrastructure costs.
Modesto’s Community and Economic Development Department has several programs
intended to encourage economic activity that will benefit current and future residents:
Modesto Redevelopment Project Area Incentives
Economic Development Revolving Loan Program
Economic Development Revenue Bonds
Enterprise Designation Areas
28 King, James R. Managing the Consequences of Prosperity: A Report for the Inter- regional Partnership. January 10,
2001.
29 Linda Boston, City of Modesto Business Development Manager, personal correspondence, December 13, 2002; and, Bill
Bassett, CEO of Stanislaus Economic Development and Workforce Alliance, personal correspondence, December 12,
2002; King, James R., page i- ii.
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City of Modesto Housing Element April 27, 2004
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In the interest of promoting a vibrant economy, the City has prepared an Economic
Development Action Plan as a component of an overall Strategic Plan. The Action Plan
includes goals, strategies, and actions that are largely focused on public utility and service
provision. Some of the actions and policies are relevant for consideration in development of
the Housing Element update ( Table 2- 27).
Table 2- 27
Relevant Economic Development Action Plan Policies and Actions
Section of Action
Plan
Relevance for
Housing Goals,
Programs, and
Policies
Relevant Action Plan Policies and Actions
Infrastructure Moderate Conduct annual rate reviews/ cost- of- service analyses for water, sewer,
and storm drainage.
Benchmark against other similar utilities to provide comparable costs.
Provide dependable service delivery at rates comparable to or less than
elsewhere in the state.
Develop internal strategies to focus key resources on preventive and/ or
proactive infrastructure maintenance.
Water and
Wastewater
Moderate Develop Water and Wastewater Master Plan that includes: water and
wastewater quality; water supply/ quantity and wastewater; treatment
capacity; water source identification; growth impacts analysis;
opportunities for regional facilities; conservation strategies ( water
meters, variable water rates, etc.); infrastructure needs ( business parks,
etc.)
Seek rate increases adequate to fund water/ wastewater master plan
strategies.
Develop a comprehensive water and wastewater strategy.
Update and adopt the Urban Water Management Plan Update to
addresses water supply issues related to growth and water quality.
Solid Waste Low N/ A
Transportation Moderate Orient new development toward multi- modal and non- motorized
modes.
Communications
and Technology
Low N/ A
Land Use High Mix land uses within neighborhoods.
Create development incentives to encourage compact development and
ensure planning/ zoning codes facilitate this development.
Prepare comprehensive General Plan Housing Element that includes a
Housing Overlay for the General Plan.
Create housing opportunities and choices for a range of household
types, family sizes and incomes.
Increase multi- family residential and affordable housing inventory.
Establish aesthetic criteria for evaluation of projects.
Identify and prioritize farmland/ open space areas for preservation as
community buffers.
Preserve open space, farmland, natural beauty, historic buildings, and
critical environmental areas.
Identify ultimate urban limit lines based on logic, economy of scale,
and agricultural land use ( including soil quality).
Reinvest in and strengthen existing communities and achieve more
balanced regional development.
Upgrade infrastructure and target infill areas for development.
Perform a comprehensive revision of the City’s Zoning Code, to
include developing set criteria for evaluating projects that apply to all
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City of Modesto Housing Element April 27, 2004
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Table 2- 27
Relevant Economic Development Action Plan Policies and Actions
Section of Action
Plan
Relevance for
Housing Goals,
Programs, and
Policies
Relevant Action Plan Policies and Actions
development proposals.
Encourage citizen and stakeholder participation in development
decisions.
Establish project review method that includes public participation and
community meetings.
Increase the efficiency of the permit process to ensure it is customer
friendly and informative.
Achieve an equitable jobs- housing balance and avoid fiscal strains of
leapfrog development.
Conduct a study to determine the optimal mix of land uses for a healthy
economy and recommend changes to development proposals.
Establish annexation policy based upon the City’s ability to assimilate
new development and on the desire of residents to join the City,
combined with the willingness of the County to provide infrastructure
upgrades.
Scrap the 5- year inventory policy in favor of growth by ability to
provide infrastructure and maintenance of service delivery standards.
Regional
Cooperation
Moderate N/ A
City Finances High Review and update fees and charges ( CFF, etc.) on a regular basis to
ensure that fees are adequate.
Education and
Workforce
Development
Low Explore partnering with the County to develop child care programs that
meet the needs of downtown workers.
Downtown Vibrancy High Encourage infill and revitalization by revising fee structure for
development within downtown core.
Adopt developer incentives for high- density housing.
Construct a flagship housing development in downtown.
Business Low
Open Space,
Agriculture, and
Environment
Moderate Increase the General Plan open space standard.
Design and construct community infrastructure and amenities during
the initial phases of new development.
Redevelopment High Use state- required 20% housing set- aside funds to improve and increase
the amount of low to moderate- income housing.
Focus housing set- aside funds within the redevelopment area.
Encourage expansion of the Redevelopment Area to include
declining/ underdeveloped portions of the City ( i. e. Yosemite Corridor).
Look at opportunities to encourage people to develop vacant buildings.
Marketing Moderate N/ A
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Special Needs Groups
Certain groups have greater difficulty in finding acceptable, affordable housing due to special
circumstances relating to employment and income, household characteristics, and disabilities.
Special needs groups, for the purposes of this analysis include:
Seniors
Persons with disabilities
Large households
Single- parent households ( female- headed households with children, in particular)
Homeless persons
Agricultural workers
Each special needs group has particular housing needs. Table 2- 28 identifies the special
needs populations. While single mothers with children continue to outnumber single fathers
with children, single- father households experienced the largest increase of the special needs
populations, at 78 percent. Single mothers with children increased in the City by 40 percent
and represented 74 percent of the single- parent households with children in 2000.
Farmworkers in Modesto decreased in population, with a migration toward unincorporated
areas of the County.
Table 2- 28
Special Needs Groups, 1990 – 2000
Special Needs Group 1990 2000
Persons Households Persons Households
% Change,
1990- 2000
Seniors ( 65+) 17,268 -- 20,962 -- 21%
Senior Households -- 12,067 -- 12,773 6%
Single Parents with Children -- 5,485 -- 8,122 48%
Mothers w/ Child -- 4,295 -- 5,998 40%
Fathers w/ Child -- 1,190 -- 2,124 78%
Large Households* -- 7,749 -- 10,054 31%
Farmworkers 1,362 -- 1,351 -- - 29%
Source: U. S. Census 1990, 2000.
* Five or more household members
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Persons with Disabilities
Physical, mental, and/ or developmental disabilities may prevent a person from working,
restrict one’s mobility, or otherwise make caring for oneself difficult. Individuals with
physical and mental disabilities often have special needs related to housing that go unmet by
the private housing market. Special issues relate to inability to earn a sufficient income for
market rate housing, the lack of accessible and affordable housing, and the need for
supportive services.
The 2000 Census documented the following disabilities: sensory, physical, mental, self- care,
going- outside- home, and employment. Due to the large range of disabilities recorded, the
proportion of residents with one or more disabilities reported by the 2000 Census generally is
larger than that reported in the 1990 Census. According to the 2000 Census, more than
38,000 residents in Modesto had one or more disabilities, representing approximately 22
percent of the total population ( Table 2- 29). However, almost half of the non- senior adults
with disabilities are employed.
Table 2- 29
Disability and Employment Status of Modesto Residents Aged 5+
Disability Status Total Male Female
Age 5 to 15 36,734 18,667 18,067
With a Disability 2,285 1,485 800
No Disability 34,449 17,182 17,267
Age 16 to 20 14,567 7,105 7,462
With a Disability 2,229 1,124 1,105
Employed 42% 47% 37%
Not Employed 58% 53% 63%
No Disability 12,338 5,981 6,357
Age 21 to 64 102,510 49,370 53,140
With a Disability 24,593 12,408 12,185
Employed 50% 58% 41%
Not Employed 50% 42% 59%
No Disability 77,917 36,962 40,955
Age 65+ 19,727 7,975 11,752
With a Disability 9,250 3,574 5,676
No Disability 10,477 4,401 6,076
Source: U. S. Census 2000.
Note: Totals may deviate slightly from 100% count of population.
Figures in this table are based on Census sample data.
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Among the Modesto children with disabilities, most are inflicted with mental disabilities,
which include development disabilities ( Table 2- 30). Among the disabled persons age 16 to
64, physical disabilities, going- outside- home disabilities, and employment disabilities are
most common. Seniors age 65 or above are more impacted by physical and going- outside-home
disabilities than other types of disabilities. To accommodate the housing needs for
persons with disabilities, housing designs must be particularly sensitive to the constraints
caused by physical and sensory disabilities. Modesto has a number of State- licensed
community care facilities to meet the needs of persons with special needs, including those
related to physical and mental disabilities, as summarized in Table 2- 31.
Table 2- 30
Disability Type by Age
Disability Type % of Total
Age 5 to 15 with Disabilities 2,285
Sensory Disability 18%
Physical Disability 13%
Mental Disability 61%
Self- Care Disability 9%
Age 16 to 64 with Disabilities 26,822
Sensory Disability 7%
Physical Disability 20%
Mental Disability 14%
Self- Care Disability 6%
Going- Outside- Home Disability 20%
Employment Disability 35%
Age 65+ with Disabilities 9,250
Sensory Disability 16%
Physical Disability 33%
Mental Disability 15%
Self- Care Disability 12%
Going- Outside- Home Disability 24%
Source: U. S. Census 2000.
Note: A person may report multiple disabilities.
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Table 2- 31
Licensed Community Care Facilities
Facility Type # of Facilities
Capacity of
Facility
Small Family Home 2 8
Group Home 7 44
Adult Residential 23 299
Residential- Elderly 40 1,096
Social Rehabilitation Facility 1 6
Adult Day Care 5 546
Total 78 1,999
Source: State of California Department of Social Services, Community Care
Licensing Division, 2001.
Senior Households
Senior persons often have special housing needs for three key reasons: income, health care
costs, and physical disabilities. Some of the most important issues for seniors are presented
in Table 2- 32. Among the senior population in Modesto, 27 percent of all seniors live alone
( Table 2- 33). This proportion is significantly higher than in California and indicates a need
for housing options designed to meet senior needs.
Table 2- 32
Housing Issues of Special Importance to Seniors
Senior Issues Description Incidence in Modesto
Fixed/ Limited
Income
Many seniors have a limited, and/ or fixed income from
which they pay for health care, housing, and other expenses.
Approximately 33 percent of
senior households in Modesto
have low or very low
incomes.
Disabilities Seniors have physical disabilities at a higher rate than does
the general population. Senior homeowners, particularly
elderly women, may require assistance in performing regular
home maintenance or repair activities due to physical
limitations or disabilities.
Out of the senior population
in the City, 37 percent have a
disability.
Cost Burden Limited income and a lack of affordable housing leads to a
cost burden ( more than 30 percent of one’s income spent on
housing).
61 percent of renter senior
households in the City
experience a housing cost
burden.
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City of Modesto Housing Element April 27, 2004
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Table 2- 33
Senior Population
Modesto
Category Number of Persons % of Senior Persons
California % of
Senior Persons
Total: 20,962 100% 100%
In households: 19,325 92% 95%
In family households: 13,146 63% 67%
Householder: 6,867 33% 34%
In nonfamily households: 6,179 30% 28%
Living alone 5,574 27% 7%
In group quarters: 1,637 8% 5%
Institutionalized population 1,144 5% 3%
Noninstitutionalized population 493 2% 1%
Source: U. S. Census, 2000.
Many senior households in Modesto pay more than 30 percent of their often- limited and
small incomes on housing. According to the 2000 Census, 26 percent of the senior owner
households and 59 percent of the senior renter households assumed a housing cost burden of
more than 30 percent of their incomes ( Table 2- 34). Affordable housing opportunities for
seniors, particularly those who rent, are needed in Modesto. Several housing developments
in the City offer affordable housing for seniors. These include the Sherwood Manor and
Conant Place.
Table 2- 34
Housing Cost Burden among Senior Households
Senior Households Owner Renter Total
Total Households 9,069 3,660 12,729
Paying More than 30% of Income on Housing 26% 59% 35%
Source: U. S. Census, 2000
The special needs of seniors can be met through:
Congregate care
Other senior housing with supportive services
Transportation services
Architecture to accommodate disabilities
Rent subsidies
Shared housing programs
Housing rehabilitation assistance
Social and supportive services are available from the City’s Parks, Recreation and
Neighborhoods Department, as well as the Stanislaus County Department of Social Services.
The City’s Senior Citizens Center offers recreational and social activities, driving courses,
tax consulting, health exams, immunizations, lunch program, and a resource and referral
service. Several retirement communities throughout Modesto offer assisted living in for- rent
and for- purchase units. The Salvation Army’s Senior Information and Referral Program
Housing Needs Assessment
City of Modesto Housing Element April 27, 2004
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helps seniors with issues related to financial planning, health, and housing assistance. The
Stanislaus County Area Agency on Aging, which provides information and referral services,
as well as advocating for senior needs locally, is located in Modesto.
Single- Parent Families
Single- parent households, particularly female- headed households often face difficulty in
finding adequate and affordable housing, due to their single incomes. Female- headed
households also tend to earn lower incomes. Compared to two- parent households, single
parents also must dedicate a larger portion of their limited incomes to child care, food, and
health care expenses.
According to the 2000 Census, Modesto had 8,122 single- parents with children under the age
of 18 ( see Table 28). Specifically, 5,998 ( 74 percent) were female- headed families and 2,124
( 26 percent) were male- headed families. Provision of affordable family housing near transit
centers and child care and other supportive services helps address the housing needs of this
special group.
Large Families
Large households, defined as those with five or more persons, have a need for larger
dwelling units, which are often in limited supply and more expensive. To save money for
other basic necessities, many lower- income large households live in overcrowded apartments
or homes.
According to the Census, 10,054 large households resided in Modesto, representing
approximately 16 percent of all households in the City. Among the large households, 5,760
( 57 percent) were owner- households and 4,294 ( 43 percent) were renter- households.
Generally, these households require dwelling units with three or more bedrooms for adequate
housing. Approximately 76 percent of owner- occupied units have 3 or more bedrooms, but
only 27 percent of renter- occupied units have 3 or more bedrooms. Availability of rental
housing may be a problem for large families.
Updated 2000 Census data detailing the housing problems confronted by large households is
not yet available. According to the 1990 Census, only 15 percent of large families that
owned their home had lower incomes, but 66 percent of large families that rented had lower
incomes, which was much higher than the overall percentage of households ( 34 percent) that
had lower incomes ( Table 2- 35). As a result, 48 percent of the large renter- households paid
more than 30 percent of their income on housing, and 58 percent of large renter- households
experienced overcrowding in 1990. Given the recent escalation of housing prices in
Modesto, the extent of housing problems faced by large households, especially those that
rent, is expected to have become worse.
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City of Modesto Housing Element April 27, 2004
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Table 2- 35
Large Family Income Levels
Income Level (% of Median Household Type Family Income)
0- 30% 31- 50% 51- 80% 81- 95% 95%+
All Households 8% 11% 15% 8% 58%
Large Families that Own 2% 4% 9% 9% 76%
Large Families that Rent 13% 26% 27% 7% 27%
Source: HUD CHAS, 1993
To address overcrowding, communities can provide incentives for developers to build larger
apartments with three or more bedrooms that can accommodate larger households. Often,
the shortage of large rental units can also be alleviated through the provision of affordable
ownership housing, such as condominiums coupled with homeownership assistance.
However, since 1990, only 10 percent of housing built since 1990 was multi- family housing.
The threat of litigation over construction defects has been a major constraint to multi- family
condominium housing construction. Recent legislative changes allow developers to
negotiate and mitigate construction defects before going to court, which may relieve some of
the concerns for builders, freeing up the for- sale multi- family housing market.
Homeless
Due to the transient nature of the homeless population, estimating the precise number of
homeless persons in a community is a difficult, if not impossible challenge. As part of the
St