The Treaty settlement process is moving along nicely under
Chris Finlayson (and was moving well under Michael Cullen too). The total value
of all Treaty settlements to date exceeds $1 billion – or by my estimation at
least. This is hardly a revelation, but consider this:

As part of their settlement agreements Ngai Tahu and Tainui
have a relativity clause. A relativity clause is a “special top up mechanism”
designed to ensure Ngai Tahu and Tainui maintain their high position relative
to other Iwi. The relativity clause comes into effect when the sum total of
treaty settlements exceeds $1 billion in 1994 dollars (the clause has effect
from 1994 to 2044).

Unfortunately, I can’t find the text for the full Ngai Tahu
and Tainui settlement agreements, but it is my understanding that Ngai Tahu and
Tainui can invoke the relativity clause and that gives them the right to return
to the negotiating table. I believe they can only negotiate a top up cash payment as
opposed to the return of more land, management agreements or anything else.

An extra payout will have interesting political
consequences. Many New Zealanders will be baffled that the already rich, and
that is a subjective term, Ngai Tahu and Tainui can double dip. Non-Maori New
Zealanders will ask aren’t settlements meant to be full and final. What I’m
getting at is that a redneck backlash will occur. Maoris this Maoris that sort
of stuff. The sort of stuff that will give the Tories, and the Labour Party too,
the shivers.

No government wants to be perceived to be pandering to
Maori. As a result the government has engaged in some creative accounting in an
effort to avoid exceeding $1 billion and, consequently, avoid reopening a
political can of worms. However, the government, no matter how they twist it,
cannot avoid exceeding the very low threshold that is $1 billion – especially with
the looming and large Nga Puhi and Tuhoe settlements.

I hope the Ngai Tahu and Tainui return to the negotiating
table soon. Both Iwi accepted paltry sums ($170m), then again they couldn’t be
expected to squeeze out much more in the circumstances. Hopefully a top up
payment gives the two Iwi the financial power they need to form the buying
consortium that Tuku Morgan is pushing. Tuku is looking to form a sort of Maori
conglomerate in response to assets sales. The plan is that Iwi will combine
their purchasing power in an effort to acquire sizable chunks of New Zealand’s
strategic resources. I must admit, this is one of Tuku’s better ideas (not
saying I agree with asset sales because I don’t). Ngai Tahu will also need a
cash injection if they want to play a lead role as a private investor in the Christchurch rebuild.

The rise and rise of Iwi is inevitable. Tainui and Ngai Tahu
are already the economic powerhouses of their regions (Waikato and the South
Island respectively) it is only a matter of time before Iwi like Nga Puhi,
Tuhoe and Ngati Porou become the driving forces behind their regional economies. Makes
you wonder when all Maori will benefit from the strength of Iwi.

Oct 17, 2011

John Moore has done some great work analysing the Mana
Movement. His latest post at Liberation is a must read. This from the post
itself:

Guest
bloggerJohn Mooreargues that the selection
of Kereama Pene represents the marginalisation of the left within the Mana
Party. For although the party appears radical on paper, in reality a number of
Mana’s leaders aim to cut deals and form alliances with parties that would have
little interest in Mana’s ‘socialist’ policies. Therefore, the selection of
Karema Pene sends a signal that Mana is both ideologically flexible and that
the party’s socialists are being kept on a tight leach. All of this amounts to
the attempt by a section of Mana’s leadership to present the party as
respectable and non-threatening. So, is the game up for Mana’s left?

What
needs to be understood is that the left in Mana is a minority, albeit an
influential minority. The party’s rank and file, or the flaxroot if you will,
consists almost exclusively of ex-Maori Party members and young Maori with a
tino rangatiratanga bent. There is a scattering of socialists and political
newbies (mainly Maori). The left do not have the strength of numbers at the
base of the party to exercise any influence on decisions like candidate
selection, policy remits etc.

As
Matt McCarten takes a step back Gerard Hehir is taking a step forward. Gerard’s
presence and prominence in the party ensures that the left punch above their
weight in the party. Hone has a great deal of respect for Gerard and the work
he does for Mana.

The
marriage between Hone and Matt, read Maori nationalism and socialism, is one of
convenience. Mana Movement satisfies both men’s ambitions. Matt serves to
extend Hone’s electoral base while Hone provides the genesis for Matt’s dream
of building a working class movement. However, both men share a similar
political outlook. Hone is the product of a Maori nationalist upbringing, but
he is intuitively left-wing (as are most Maori nationalists). Matt is the
product of an underclass upbringing, but he maintains an intuitive Maori
nationalist streak.

Hone
knows that he will not build the movement he dreams of without extending his
base beyond hardcore Maori nationalists. Therefore, he will not allow the left
to be marginalised. I think the decision was made not to veto Pene’s selection
because Hone, and his advisers like Hehir and McCarten, felt that it did not pose a serious threat to the role of the left in the party.

An
examination of Mana’s policy reveals a leftist bent. As I’ve said before the
party’s policy platform is almost devoid of any tino rangatiratanga type
policy.

I
can almost guarantee that Hone will not enter a coalition government in the
medium term. I say this because Hone has told me as much. Of course,
circumstances change and so do a person’s intentions, but at this stage Hone
appears unlikely to even consider lending support on a coalition or confidence
and supply basis to any government. Mana is aiming in the short term to renter
Parliament with, hopefully, two extra MPs - Annette Sykes and John Minto (and if
things go better than expected Sue Bradford). In the medium term the party
hopes to build a sustainable movement. Building a sustainable movement includes
extending the party membership and implementing a succession plan. As an aside
Maori politics specialist Veronica Tawhai is leading the party’s succession
plan. In the long term the party will, inevitably, enter government. Forcing
change from the streets is a nice concept, but a far fetched one in my opinion
and Hone and co. know this. There are so many variables and the opposition
(capitalism) is so overwhelming. Furthermore, Mana does not have the
intellectual grunt at the moment to put forward a viable alternative to the
current system.

Mana
has a long way to go yet. The contradictions, nuances and ultimate direction of
the party are yet to be settled. This is the nature of a new movement. In the
mean time we can analyse and predict where the party is and will head, but,
ultimately, we just don’t know enough yet.

Oct 14, 2011

I've no time for polls that attempt to gauge the Maori
electorate. Why? Well, because they tend to miss the mark. Think the Native Affairs/Baseline poll. That poll held that only one percentage point separated
Hone and Kelvin in Tai Tokerau. In reality over nine percentage points
separated the two. Shannon Taurua points out that the last two election year Marae
Digipolls were predicting that the Maori Party would sweep all of the Maori
seats. In reality the Maori Party won four seats in 05 and five in 08 – not all
seven.

My instincts tell me the Marae Digipoll is wrong. The
results are absolutely and utterly out of whack with what I have gauged over
the past year. The Maori vote is fragmented and fluid at the moment, for sure,
but I cannot accept, for example, that Kelvin is ahead of Hone in Tai Tokerau.
That finding runs contrary to all I, and other Maori commentators, have
observed.

As you can probably tell, I’m going to attack the poll in
this post. Firstly, the poll was conducted via landline. 14.6% of workers in
the primary sector do not have access to landlines. By my reckoning that figure
will rise for Maori primary sector workers. Also 19.6% of 18 to 24 year olds do
not have access to a landline phone. As you can imagine, this group will include
a disproportionate number of Maori voters. For low income homes 12.5% do not
own a landline and, again, I expect that figure to rise when considering poor
Maori households only. With this in mind, a landline only poll is going to
bypass a significant bloc of the Maori population. Maori, especially low-income
Maori, are transient too. Often moving from rented home to rented home. As
such, these Maori have never had access to a landline telephone and, if they
do, they are extremely difficult to reach because they tend to avoid listing
their numbers in the White Pages. The time calls are made will also affect who
is reached. I figure a disproportionate number of Maori are shift workers and
these workers will be missed because, from my experience and the pollsters call
my family every time, the poll is conducted late afternoon early evening when
shift workers are beginning their shift/still sleeping. Again, a large bloc is
missed. The poll also worked from a low base, only 655 voters from the Maori
role were surveyed, and the margin of error was quite high at 3.9% for voters
on the Maori roll and a whopping 10.4% for electorate results. Another
significant flaw is that not all the Mana electorate candidates had been
announced when the poll was conducted. Furthermore, respondents were not given
the names or respective parties of the candidates they could vote for.

These problems are difficult to correct, or some of them. It
is too expensive to call cellphones (and get cellphone numbers in the first
place) and it is doubly difficult to target a particular demographic (i.e.
Maori) even under normal conditions. The poll could adjust for age, sex and
income sampling error, but this was not done which, again, takes away from the
validity of the results.

To be fair, the poll is not worthless. Polls are a snapshot
at a particular moment in time. In this case the poll was conducted between
July and September. A time when the Mana Movement was gaining traction, the
Maori Party continuing to decline and Labour struggling to make headway.
However, this is not reflected in the poll results.

Party vote:

Labour
38.4%

Maori
Party 22.2%

National
16.4%

Mana
8.5%

Green
6.5%

NZ
First 5.1%

A landline poll will tend to reach nine to five conservative
Maori so it’s unsurprising to see a leaning towards Labour, National and, arguably,
New Zealand First. Support for National is well overstated, having said that I expect
the general support for National to flow onto Maori voters. Support for the
Maori Party also seems overstated I, quite honestly, know of no more Maori
Party supporters and know of only one and two by extension. Support for the
Greens is also overstated, among Maori voters the Greens tend to do poorly on
the day (under 5%). Labour and Mana should expect to poll better. Mana will
ride the momentum, albeit slowing momentum, they are building and Labour can
expect to bring in more votes out of Maori habits and the “two ticks” work of
MPs like Parekura Horomia, Nanaia Mahuta and Rino Tirikatene.

Te Tai Tokerau:

Labour 30.2%

Mana 28.6%

Maori 22.2%

This
cannot be correct. This result runs contrary to everything I have perceived. I
know others feel the same (even commentators from the right like David Farrar).
Hone is an unmovable object in Te Tai Tokerau. Kelvin has done nothing to
justify such a high result nor has Hone done anything that would turn the tides
against him. This result is a rogue. Hone will win by over 10%. If he doesn’t,
well, then I’ll renounce my reputation as a decent Maori political commentator
and probably never wirte again out of embarrassment.

Tamaki Makaurau:

Maori 46.1%

Labour 30.4%

Mana 15.7%

This
result appears more accurate. I think Mana’s support will drop with the
announcement of Kereama Pene as the party’s candidate. This drop in support
will, naturally I think, flow back to Pita Sharples. I expect Shane to rise as
the campaign heats up and he goes head to head with Pita. Pita has already
experienced a reflex backlash and I doubt Shane has the ability to exacerbate
that backlash in a significant way.

Waiariki:

Maori 59.3%

Mana 18.7%

Labour 8.8%

If
the pollsters had put forward Annette Sykes name I expect that the result for
Mana would be much higher. Annette enjoys huge support in the Eastern Bay,
for example the Ruatoki Valley where landlines are near non-existent,
moderate support in Te Arawa and a few strong factions of support in the Western Bay. Te Ururoa has no functional
branches left and can only rely on his whanaunga in Te Arawa and possibly
Tuwharetoa, but I tend to think Tuwharetoa, who are staunch in the Tuhoe sense,
will back Annette. Labour’s candidate, Louis Te Kani, will do well in his
native Tauranga, but will struggle in Tuwharetoa and the Eastern Bay.

Te Tai Tonga:

Labour 41.4%%

Maori 34.5%

Mana 3.4%

This
sounds about right. Expect Rahui Katene to snatch Christchurch,
but lose Wellington
and the rest of the South. This will be a close battle, but I expect Rino Tirikatene
to prevail.

Tainui:

Labour 58.8%%

Maori 12.9%

Mana 17.6%

Nanaia
is safe – no doubt about that. Expect to see Angeline Greensil poll much higher
than 17.6%. However, Nanaia is not threatened. Voters will consider her good
form as their MP over the past decade and her extensive whakapapa connections.
Angeline brings some much needed theatre and fire to the race, but her brand of
tino rangatiratanga is more attractive in places like Tuhoe, Nga Puhi and the
East Coast as opposed to Tainui.

Te Tai Hauauru:

Labour 40.3%%

Maori 48.6%%

Mana 1.4%

Well
out of whack with feeling on the ground. Tariana is well ahead. The Labour
candidate, Soraya Peke-Mason is well connected in the Ratana Church,
and the Church is very influential in Te Tai Hauauru, but so too is Tariana.
Tariana can stand on her form over the past decade as well and her mana as a
Maori leader and leader of the Maori Party.

Ikaroa Rawhiti:

Labour 40.5%%

Maori 31.6%

NZ First 10.1%

Mana 8.9%

Parekura is safe too. His style of campaigning is old, but
effective – wildly effective. I’m not even joking when I say Parekura knows almost
all of his voters by name. This sort of closeness to his constituents does not
go unnoticed. Parekura is an institution, much like Hone, even his opponents
refuse to bag him. As a former Minister of Maori Affairs and dedicated
electorate MP Parekura has the record and the mana to carry him through this
election. The Maori Party candidate is strong, but I doubt he is strong enough
to come within 10% of Parekura. Expect Mana’s Tawhai McClutchie to dig into the
Maori Party vote as well.

I’m not going to bother with the other results. Most are
rogues, in my opinion at least, and I don’t have time to continue with this
post. Again, if you are curious for my thoughts just flick me an email and I’ll
get back to you in good time. My email address is at the bottom of the page.

Oct 13, 2011

I've added the brilliant Turangawaewae to the Maori blog list. Turangawaewae is considered, relevant and indigenous. The writer comes from the left and her postings are unmistakably Maori in outlook. Check it out here.

It appears that my whenua in the Eastern Bay of Plenty will eventually be affected by the Rena spill. Dr James Holborow of the Department of Conservation is quoted in the Gisborne Herald as saying that a strong westerly will push oil as far east as the East Cape. Rick Pollock of Whakatane is quoted in the Whakatane Beacon as saying that a westerly wind (which is forecast tomorrow) will push oil towards Matata, the Raurima Islands, Whakaari (White Island), Whakatane, Ohope and Te Kaha. This puts many of the taonga of Ngati Awa, Ngati Rangitihi, Whakatohea, Te Whanau a Apanui and other Eastern Bay Iwi at risk. Perhaps most significantly Te Paepae a Aotea (Volkner Rocks) may become contaminated. Te Paepae o Aotea is said to be the place where the spirits of Ngati Awa depart for Hawaiki.

The Rena disaster goes to show New Zealand
does not have the capacity to respond to even the most minor of oil spills. New Zealand
does not have the policy mechanisms or the capacity to deal with an actual spill and the
consequences thereof - not even a minor spill. Hekia Parata should take
note. If she approves oil extraction in the Raukumara this could end up
happening to her moana and her whenua in Ngati Porou, but to the power of x1000.

The response from the authorities has been typical New Zealand -
casual as anything. The hope for the best approach. The authorities have sat
around twiddling their thumbs waiting for someone to tell them what to do, but
that someone, read John Key, has taken the same hands off approach he takes to
dealing with his Cabinet and his Governments policy. The Prime Minister needed
to provide the impetus in the immediate wake of the disaster because the
backwater hicks at Maritime NZ had no idea how bad this could get nor any power
to do anything substantial. A state of emergency should be declared immediately
and the resources we do have should be deployed now. Or even better the
resources should have been deployed straight after the fact. It blows my mind
that the Government declined the offer from Lancer Industries to pump oil from
the ship. WTF.

The effect the disaster will have on the moana and the
whenua will be devastating. Not only will the oil affect the health of the
moana and whenua, but the toxic, and ineffective may I add, dispersant the
authorities have used will also damage the moana and whenua. The dispersant used
is four times more toxic than the oil itself. The disaster is going to severely
affect customary and recreational activities. Most worryingly the disaster is
going to affect the spiritual health of the Iwi of Tauranga Moana. When the
land is healthy the people are healthy, when the land weeps the people weep.
The spill is going to devastate kaimoana as well as the spiritual guardians of
Tauranga Moana. I am not sure what the spiritual guardians, kaitiaki etc, of Tauranga Moana are, but I know some Iwi hold, for example, the Stingray as a prominent
spiritual guardian.

Local Iwi should be given a more prominent role in
determining the response, who should be held to account and how the
consequences will be dealt with. Naturally, given we have a National Government
at the helm, Maori have been sidelined. Only today have Maori been given a place
on the response team.

If New
Zealand doesn’t have the capacity to respond
to a minor oil spill from a container ship, how the hell will we deal with a
spill, either minor or major, from an oil rig? This is the deathblow against
the Government’s dream of oil extraction. Hekia cannot now, as a woman immersed
in her culture and well aware of the effects of a disaster on Papatuanuku, push
ahead in her role as Minister for Energy and Resources. There will be immense
pressure coming from her Iwi Ngati Porou and her whanaunga in Te Whanau a
Apanui, but there will also be pressure coming from Cabinet. It’s going to be
interesting to see whose interests she prioritises, I’m leaning towards
Cabinet.

Of course, not only are Maori furious, but so is the rest of
New Zealand – especially the people of the Bay of Plenty who have had their
backyard ruined, meaning their summer is down the drain too. Last night
Minister for the Environment Nick Smith got an ear bashing, and rightly so,
from angry Tauranga residents. And what about compensation for the
businesspeople who have lost their livelihoods? John Key is deflecting the
issue in typical fashion; he doesn’t want to front the hard issues.

Mana whenua will
therefore dictate the outcomes in at least six electorates, this time
supporting the candidates they think best represent their interests, regardless
of which party they come from.

Tribes will also
back their own among those who fought out the Mana-Maori Party split. Both
factors should see the sitting MPs - Parekura Horomia, Nanaia Mahuta, Tariana
Turia, Te Ururoa Flavell and Harawira - return to Parliament.

As I’ve
always said the vote in the Maori electorates is a personality vote, but also,
and this is the first time I’ve put this forward, a loyalty vote. Loyalty
includes tribal loyalty and loyalty built up over the years of the MPs service
to the electorate.

The wild card is
that the Digipoll survey has preceded the announcing of several Mana
candidates. Maori voters prefer names and faces. Expect some figures to change
as candidates are confirmed.

Mana's Annette
Sykes faces an uphill battle overhauling a 40-point gap to Flavell sitting on
59.3 per cent in Waiariki.

Sykes is highly
intelligent and hugely experienced in litigation and Waitangi Tribunal
proceedings. Iwi politics may be against her.

She is also
assertive, which conservative traditionalists might rail against.

Sykes would have
been a better selection in Auckland.
Sharples has significant support; however, there is potential volatility.

Urban Maori make
up 80 per cent of the population so mana whenua will be less influential. Sykes
would also be a point of difference against two high-profile male candidates
and would pull in more Maori women votes.

Mana may have got it wrong in selecting Pene, but the party
does get it right in calling for the voting age to be lowered to 16. The best
way to engage young people in the political process is to include them. Say
you’re an employed sixteen year old and contributing to the economy, shouldn’t
you have a say in how the economy is managed? I think so. For a nice summary on
the pro’s of lowering the age see this post at Political Dumpground.

----------

In an attempt to distance herself from the Nat’s Tariana
Turia has come out against asset sales. This will annoy her Iwi backers who
have vigorously supported asset sales, but placate her disgruntled left-wing
supporters and serve as a point of difference between her party and the Nat’s. I wonder if the Iwi Leaders will be thinking twice about opening their pockets to the Maori Party.

Oct 10, 2011

Blogging will be light to non-existent in the coming weeks. I have an exam next week and then another the following week. Given that I have yet to really start studying I thought I had best give blogging a break and focus my energies elsewhere. Of course, should an important issue pop up, I might give my thoughts. In the mean time if you're looking for my opinion on anything feel free to email me at morgan dot godfery at gmail dot com. I'll be blogging furiously in November in the run up to the election though, so hang tight.

Oct 5, 2011

On Monday night Native Affairs
ran a panel discussion with Dr Hone Kaa and Matt McCarten. The panel discussed
the upcoming election as well as the Maori seats. Julian Wilcox, the host,
suggested to Hone Kaa that Waiariki could go either way (to Te Ururoa or
Annette), however Dr Kaa disagreed. He held that Waiariki is Te Ururoa’s
because it is a “Wahine voice versus a Tane voice”. Dr Kaa then went onto say “given
that tribal area (meaning Te Arawa)… how
many women do you see speaking on a Marae there?” What he was implying is that
Te Arawa is, and I wish there was a less offensive term for this, sexist. Although
he did not come out and say so in certain terms, the implications of his statements
are clear.

It's sometimes said that Te Arawa is, to quote a very prominent Maori leader who
shall remain nameless, “chauvinist”. Women are accorded a subordinate place on
the Marae and the social hierarchy. I think Dr Kaa poses a valid question.

We know that on the arrival of
Europeans, or more specifically missionaries, our Tikanga was warped to better
reflect Christian notions of the place of women (i.e. as secondary to men) and
we have yet to reclaim our original ideas about the role of women and their
place in our world. Or, alternatively, we have yet to respond to and
incorporate modern notions of the place of women. But is this a justification? Or
is this really the case? I don’t really know.

Having said that, I doubt any perceived
or real chauvinism on the part of Te Arawa will have much bearing on the
result. The tribes of the Mataatua (Ngati Awa, Tuhoe, Whakatohea, Te Whanau a
Apanui, Ngai Te Rangi and Ngati Pukenga – as well as Nga Puhi of course) accord
women a special place as a result of two tipuna – Wairaka and Muriwai.
Depending on whom you ask, Wairaka or Muriwai saved the Mataatua Waka on
arrival in Whakatane. As a result of this women have always and continue to
occupy a central role in the life of the aforementioned tribes. With this in
mind, the perceived or real chauvinism of Te Arawa will not have much, if any,
affect on the election as the tribes of the Mataatua Waka outnumber
those of the Te Arawa Waka.

(In no way is what I write a slur against Te
Arawa. I'm probably woefully wrong).

Oct 4, 2011

Today’s post is the first in a series analysing each Maori
electorate. Over the next few weeks I’ll be exploring each electorate. I’ll
assess the candidates, gauge the voters, lay out the issues and, most
importantly, forecast the result. I thought about endorsing candidates, but
then I thought most of you probably don’t care and, for the ones that do care,
it’ll be fairly obvious where my preferences lay.

I’ll preface this post and say that each post in the series
will be horrendously long. Unless you’re a political junkie, you’re probably
going to find this series horrifically dry. But don’t let that stop you. I like
to think this series will be important and useful as far as Maori political
discourse goes.

As far as I know, no one has offered an in depth analysis of
any of the Maori electorates – ever. With that in mind, I thought I’d give it a
go. Commentary and analysis on the Maori electorates, and Maori politics in
general, is thin.

The Stats

Te Tai Tonga is the most under analysed electorate and the
most homogenous. Ngai Tahu exercises rangatiratanga (authority) over most of
the South Island alongside Waitahi, Ngati
Mamoe and a small number of other Iwi. Te Ati Awa exercise rangatiratanga over
the Wellington section of Te Tai Tonga as well
as parts of the upper South Island. Today,
Maori from the East Coast, for example Ngati Porou, are prominent in Wellington while Maori from the North Island, for example
Nga Puhi, are prominent in Christchurch.
Maori from other Iwi outnumber Te Ati Awa in Wellington. Ngai Tahu is the most populous
Iwi in the South.

The Maori population in Te Tai Tonga is overwhelmingly young,
59.8% of Maori are 29 or under. In comparison with other Maori electorates Te
Tai Tonga is, for want of a better term, more well off. For example, 13.3% of
Te Tai Tonga households earn over $100,000 while only 8.1% of households in
neighbouring Ikaroa-Rawhiti earn over $100,000. Te Tai Tonga is also,
relatively speaking, more educated than most other Maori electorates. 9.2% of
Maori in Te Tai Tonga hold a Bachelors Degree or higher compared with only 5.6%
of Maori in bordering Te Tai Hauaru.

In the 2008 election Rahui Katene won, rather easily, with a
majority of over 1000. Labour’s Mahara Okeroa was the second placed candidate
gaining almost 42% of the vote while the Green candidate polled at almost 11%.
In 2005 Okeroa secured 47% of the vote (in 2008 the situation reversed with
Katene winning 47%). The Maori Party candidate won 34% of the vote while the
Green candidate, Metiria Turei no less, gathered 12% of the vote.

In both the 2005 and 2008 election Labour cleaned up in the
party vote stakes with 57% of the vote in 2005 and 49% in 2008. The Maori
Party, Nats and Greens polled second, third and fourth respectively. The Maori
Party increased their share of the vote from 17% in 2005 to 22% in 2008.
National increased their vote from 7% to 11% while the Greens remained largely
static rising less than a percentage point from 2005 to 2008. In the 2002 election Okeroa annihilated his competitors and the Greens and New Zealand
First outpolled National.

The Candidates

Ok, hopefully you managed to make it through that. Political
forecasting, if you will, combines a number of factors including historical
trends, the contemporary situation and a little bit of intuition. To make an
informed judgement you need to lay out the facts. Hence the above.

Four candidates will contest Te Tai Tonga. The incumbent,
Rahui Katene of the Maori Party, Labour’s Rino Tirikatene, Clinton Dearlove of
the Mana Movement and Dora Langsbury from the Greens.

Rahui has held the seat since 2008. Rahui is a qualified
lawyer and a former policy analyst and nurse. She is a member of a number of
select committees and connects to Iwi across the entire South
Island.

Rino Tirikatene is, for want of a better description, a
political pedigree. His Koro, Eruera Tirikatene, held the Southern Maori seat
(aka Te Tai Tonga) for a number of years as did his Aunty Whetu
Tirikatene-Sullivan. Rino has worked for top law firm Simpson Grierson as well
as Maori development organisations for 12 years. Rino stood for Te Tai Tonga Te Puku O Te Whenua in 1996:

“This is not my first
time representing the Labour Party. At the tender age of 23 my father passed
away, he was to stand for Labour in the Southern Maori seat. I took up his
mantel in 1996 and carried on his journey”.

Clinton Dearlove is, in Wellington political circles at least, an
unknown quantity. I had never heard of him nor had anyone I’d spoken to. Dearlove
affiliates to Waitaha and Nga Puhi (the second most populous Iwi in the South).
Dearlove holds an honours degree in Science from the University of Otago
(very few Maori hold any sort of science qualification) and his primary
interest appears to be education (he is a secondary school teacher of 10
years).

Dora Langsbury stood for the Greens at the last election.
Langsbury is of Ngai Tahu, Waitaha and Ngati Mamoe descent and works for Te
Wananga o Aotearoa. According to the Greens website Langsbury policy interests are:

Rahui Katene is the invisible Maori Party MP. Sharples and
Turia are the leaders, Flavell is the workhorse and Hone was the principled
voice (or the big mouth). Rahui, however, was not known for much beyond being
Turia’s lapdog. She breathlessly followed her leaders despite pressure from
within, read from Hone and his supporters, and pressure from without, read from
Maori generally (think the foreshore and seabed hikoi etc).

The vote in the Maori electorates is a personality vote.
Most Maori don’t vote along party lines. However, Rahui is one of the few Maori
MP’s to ride off of the success of her party. In 2008 the Maori Party had built
enough momentum to launch an assault on Te Tai Tonga without having to stand a
moneyed or widely known candidate. The party’s credibility peaked in 2008 and
so to did their support among voters and their support from politically
minded Maori (i.e. campaigners etc).

Another factor that played into Rahui’s hands was Mahara
Okeroa’s age and perceived uselessness (or actual uselessness is how I see it). Maori snubbed Labour in 2008 - their share of the party vote dropped and only two Labour MP's managed to hold their seats.

Having said all of that, one factor will benefit Rahui’s
chances – the Christchurch
earthquake. Rahui has received, and rightly so, kudos for her work in Christchurch. From day
one Rahui has moved across the city lending a hand or a sympathetic ear to her
constituents. As the MP for Te Tai Tonga this is her job and she has, by all
accounts, performed it with distinction.

However, Christchurch
is not where the electorate will be won. Support in the South
Island is, for the most part, evenly split between the Maori Party
and Labour. Labour cleaned up the candidate vote in Bluff and the party holds
an acceptable lead in Invercargill and Timaru. It is fairly even in Dunedin and Christchurch
with the Maori Party enjoying the most slender of leads.

Wellington
is where the electorate will be won. Rahui thrashed Mahara Okeroa across Wellington. From Rongotai
to Petone to Wellington
Central Rahui cleaned up. So, assuming Rino Tirikatene holds Mahara Okeroa’s
support in the South, Wellington will become
the key battle ground.

My money is on Rino Tirikatene to win in the South and peel
back Rahui’s lead in Wellington.
Petone and Rongotai, and most other Wellington
suburbs, are traditional Labour strongholds and will follow a strong Labour
candidate. Wellington Central Maori, many of whom are public servants, will also
punish the Maori Party for their alliance with the public service bashing
National Party. Then again, the only Maori I know who ever voted or vote
National are public servants. I still can’t figure out why this is, but that’s
for another post.

Tirikatene has run a clean campaign across the entire
electorate. Nothing flashy, nothing nasty, just an old fashioned campaign
focussing on the issues and exploring the solutions. Rino will benefit from a
reflex backlash against the Maori Party and, according to the latest Marae
digipoll, he already enjoys a healthy lead. However, as a qualification I must
add that I do not place too much faith in the results of that poll and will
tell you why in my next post.

Ultimately I think the vote will follow whoever is perceived
to be the strongest and most effective candidate. In my mind, and from what I have
ascertained from living in Te Tai Tonga, the strongest candidate is Rino Tirikatene. Rino
comes from an illustrious line of Maori politicians and demonstrated out in the
traps that he is the smartest and most promising candidate. His experience in
the corporate world and in Maori development roles gives him the experience he
needs to cut in the throat slitting world of Parliament and the challenging
world that is contemporary Maoridom.

Rahui is perceived as nice, but weak. She followed her
leaders like a puppy, despite numerous protestations from her constituents (especially
Ngai Tahu re the MCA Act).

I doubt the Mana candidate, Clinton Dearlove, win a significant amount of votes, but he will, despite this, make an impact. Only a well known and moneyed
candidate could gain a large number of votes this late in the game. Clinton Dearlove
is largely unknown and Mana is perhaps weakest in the South so he cannot fall
back on the party branches in the South. Mana is, however, strong in Wellington. I tend to
think Dearlove (cool name eh) will steal more than a few votes from Rahui in Wellington and, thus, hand the city to Rino and,
consequently, the electorate (as I said the winner must win Wellington). The natural transition for
disgruntled Maori Party voters is to Mana. Mana also enjoys a strong set up in Wellington so despite
Dearlove’s low profile he can rely on strong party support to push his name and
message in the city. Given the makeup of Te Tai Tonga (i.e. the young age
profile of the electorate) Dearlove is likely to pick up a few votes in the
South thus handing Rino a slight advantage in the South too. Dearlove is also
of Nga Puhi descent and Nga Puhi is the second most populous Iwi in the South.
Having whakapapa to the most populous Iwi will work in Dearlove’s favour.

I haven’t heard anything from the Green candidate and as a
result I doubt she will impact the race in a big way. The Greens are focussing
on the party vote – not the candidate vote.

Conculsion

The key battleground is Wellington. As I said, the Mana candidate
will snatch enough votes from Rahui in Wellington
to allow Rino to charge up the middle and win the city and the electorate. Rahui
has not done enough in the past term nor enough in the last few months to fend
off the strong challenge Labour is mounting.

Should the Maori Party lose Te Tai Tonga the National Party
has reason to worry. Given the pathetic state of the Act Party and the
unprecedented possibility of the governing party obtaining an outright
majority, a strong Maori Party increases the chances of a second term National
Government.

The next post in this series will examine the other marginal
electorate – Waiariki. The next post will examine Te Tai Tokerau in the wake of
the results from the Marae Digipoll. At this point I’m unsure whether or not I will
have time to finish this series and examine the other electorates. Exams are
approaching for me. Hopefully I can find the time.