100% Renewable Energy – The Only Way Forward

It is a fact that non-renewable energies will, by definition, run out. It is also a fact that in the meantime, dependence on these energy sources is causing multiple existential global crises. If human beings are to preserve modernity and planetary habitability, we must soon shift to 100% renewable energy in all sectors. A fossil-free energy system is the only way forward as it results in socio-economic development and regional value creation.

The world’s leading scientists have issued a mandate that we must change our energy system to a sustainable one based on conservation, efficiency and renewable energy in the near future or risk losing planetary habitability. The energy transition is not a lifestyle choice; it is an essential way to combat climate change and save our planet. Fukushima and BP’s Deepwater Horizon catastrophe are only the most recent reminders of the hazards of our current energy system. Energy infrastructure is outdated and much of the world’s power generation capacity is nearing the end of its life. Major investment decisions to modernize the world’s energy system are unavoidable. Now is the time for the energy transformation.

There are many people who would consider themselves supporters of renewables but doubt the feasibility of 100% in the near future. Indeed, it is one of the biggest challenges humanity has ever faced. In times of economic crisis and budget cuts in most parliaments people are mainly concerned about jobs and price increases in their daily lives. However, the evidence shows that investments in renewable energies actually tackle these issues. Energy is a cross-cutting issue.

Looking at countries like Germany and Denmark that are successfully moving towards 100% renewable energy, we see that high citizen participation and regional value creation from decentralised renewable energy production are the key success factors.

In Germany renewable energy deployment has already resulted in more than 380,000 jobs. Especially in 2008 – the year of the global economic crisis – the sector proved its importance for growth and employment with an increase of more than 10%. By reducing costs for energy imports by € 6 billion in 2011, renewables enabled politicians to spend the limited resources on local development.[1] A study from the German Renewable Energy Agency (2010) calculates that German municipalities can expect at least € 1.2 billion a year in tax revenue from the use of renewable energies by 2020.[2] The more job-intensive a system technology or a value creation chain is, the more tax revenue municipalities can expect from their shares of the income tax.

The successful development of renewable energies has been a decentralised phenomenon in Germany. In almost every municipality in the country, a wide variety of stakeholders have in recent years brought many thousands of renewable energy systems into operation. Currently, over 80,000 citizens hold shares in collectively run systems for the generation of regenerative electricity and heat. Over 500 of the energy cooperatives founded in recent years have already invested a total of around € 800 million in renewable energy sources.[3]

Across the country there are over 100 regions that have understood the enormous potential of renewables and therefore implemented – and even, in some cases, already achieved – a 100% renewable energy (RE) target. These so-called 100 RE regions encompass about a quarter of the country’s population.

In a number of ways, municipalities have played an important part in the development of renewable energies in Germany and will continue to do so in future. They have far-reaching instruments of control with regard to the authorisation and installation of systems. They partially fund the installation of renewable energy systems and may even be involved in their operation as lessors through their municipal departments of public works. Increasingly, they are adopting their own renewable energies development goals and trying to attract companies active in the renewable energy industry to invest in them.

One may wonder how this is linked to the problem of empty coffers. The fact is that municipalities profit from positive regional economic development generated by the use of renewable energies by: – saving fossil fuel costs – creating jobs – obtaining tax and lease revenues

Germany has undoubtedly raised the bar in terms of strategising energy sourcing, and setting the pace for renewable energy policies. Feed-in tariffs (FiTs) brought the country on this track as it acts as a connecting policy, linking people, policy, energy and economy.

However, Denmark is the only European country that has committed itself to 100% renewable energy in the electricity, heat and transport sector. Since the first oil crisis in 1973, the main objectives of Danish energy policy have been the security of energy supply, diversification in use of energy sources, environmental and climate aspects of the use of energy as well as cost effectiveness of energy supplies. The Danes obviously understood even back then that renewable energy technology can drive local development. In 2002, the Liberal-Conservative government tried to cut the renewable energy programs. However, renewable energy is so deeply rooted in the Danish population as the only realistic long term solution, six years later the prime minister declared the fossil-free society – meaning 100% RE – by 2050.

In this small Nordic country, € 16 million from local residents are being invested in renewable energies. Over 100 wind turbine cooperatives have a combined ownership of three-quarters of the country’s turbines. The price per kWh for electricity from community-owned wind parks is not only competitive with conventional power production, but is actually half the price of electricity from off-shore wind parks. As electricity and heat are by law non-profitable goods, this enabled local community-based cooperatives to lead the energy transition.

Moreover, Denmark has also found an answer to the key challenge of integrating wind energy fluctuations: its solution is to combine heat and electricity generation (CHP) and implement decentralised district heating infrastructure, thus tripling energy efficiency and achieving decentralised storage. Solar and wind therefore do not stand alone. The Danes have managed to combine and integrate district heating and cooling, CHP and renewables to create truly autonomous systems.

Local CHP creates the basis for a decentralised energy structure. In many countries this infrastructure is already in place. With modest investments its fuel can easily be changed from fossil fuel to local renewable energy sources. With high total efficiency and two energy products from the same fuel source, cost of power and heat can be reduced. As an example, in 2007 Denmark had the fourth lowest power prices (before tax) for GWh-consumers in Europe according to Eurostat, trailing only Sweden, Norway, France and Finland being lower.[4]

The town of Hvide Sande on the Danish west coast shows how investments in renewables result in an immense development process on the local level. In December 2011 three wind turbines at the Hvide Sande harbour were set up. By Danish law, 80% of the turbines is owned by the Holmsland Klit Tourist Association foundation, a local business fund which initiated and financed the project. Hvide Sande’s North Harbour Turbine Society I/S pay an annual rent of €644,000 to the local harbour. The other 20% is owned by local residents living within a 4.5 km radius, as per the guidelines set out by the Danish Renewable Energy Act. This wind co-operative has 400 local stakeholders, and with an annual return of 9 to 11% the turbines are expected to pay for themselves in 7 to 10 years. The fund is used to initiate new business initiatives for the benefit of the harbour and local municipality.

Winds of change are blowing through the European energy sector. As we observe in Denmark, Germany and other countries, the cooperative enterprise model is highly successful, allowing people, local communities and regions to be the driving force of the biggest transformational process in Europe since the industrial revolution. In order to see these developments elsewhere in Europe, we need national political frameworks that enable citizens and municipalities to profit from this transition.

Powering a region with 100% renewable energy has been technically and economically feasible for a long time and is becoming reality all across Europe today. Feed-in tariffs kick started this development. Our task now is to adapt policy frameworks on all governance levels to this reality and to further develop best policies, like the feed-in tariff, because enabling policy frameworks on the national level trigger citizen participation and action on the local level. In order to set the scene for 100% renewables, the following policy principles are needed:

– provide market access for newcomers like citizens – provide investment security to enable people to put their money on the right technology – ensure direct benefits to communities – increase efficiency of the energy system by combining heat and power – create a level playing field between the renewable energies sector and fossil fuel industry

To that end, knowledge transfer and exchange between policy makers are vital. Networks between trailblazing countries must be established all over the continent to realize the implementation of a European energy transition to 100% renewable energies. Despite numerous good practices and successful policy instruments, this message does not always get through to policy makers in governments. We need to facilitate dialogue so that countries can learn from the invaluable experiences of other countries in order to avoid wasting scarce resources.

You state “However, Denmark is the only European country that has committed itself to 100% renewable energy in the electricity, heat and transport sector.”

Using an acceptable definition of renewable energy, can you categorically state that when plans are completed, Denmark will be able to do away with all energy imports and be sef-sufficient on renewables? What happens when the wind don’t blow and the sun don’t shine?

Increasingly, and Germany is an example, it seems that some European countris are performing deliberate experiments on how do bring a country to its economic knees.

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Kent Otho Doering

January 11, 2013 04:12

Thanks Anna. To the other engineers here, I have just filed a patent for all aqueous fuel systems.

Germany is exiting both nuclear and fossil. It already obtains 25% of its energy needs from renewables- hydro-, wind, and solar- However, these cause some fluctuations in grid capacity- which must be rapidly accounted for. Germany has to build out- VHDC lines to carry power from North to South- and east to west through France and Spain- to North Africa where the big Desertec wind and concentrated solar 400 billion Euro Franco German project is building out. (carried by a consortium lead by Munich Re and Allianz insurance.) Munich Ultities are participating in sun rich area- Andasol concentrated solar power projects in Spain, shipping the power via the low transmission loss HVDC lines to Munich.

Munich swapped nuclear participation for hydro- at a loss back in 92. The policy pays off in spades now. By repowering hydro- i.e. upgrading the inefficient generators to A +++ rated generators, it nearly doubles hydro-capacity. Munich utilities participate in Andasol concentrated solar in Spain, and in some large coastal and offshore – wind- with Siemens variable pitch blade turbines- which keep power output constant in varying wind conditions. (And a new development by Siemens wind- are curved blades like Saracen swords- and a trailing edge that is saw shaped like Dragons teeth- improves torque- and new magnets and generator construction enable more power- i.e. big coastal and offshore wind turbines generating 25% more power for the money – i.e. 8 megawatts each instead of 6. Cool advance. Now, as part of the 400 billion Desertec program, Siemens will be putting up 7.500 of these on the wind rich, wind constant, Atlantic coastline of Morocco- and shipping the power via H.V.D.C. under the straights of Gilbraltar and through Spain to the French and German grids. (putting up 60.000 GW of wind power capacity – operating at least 90% of the time.) Munich utilities are participating in big on shore coastal- wind parks on the wind rich- Baltic sea island of Rugen-

But let us not forget the other “hidden renewables” that people rarely talk or write about. Munich Utilities has a sewage sludge methane recapture plant, and another “cellulose composting methane recapture plant – that feeds into the gas (and the sludge) into a big, dual furnace Rankine cycle garbage incineration plant. (which neatly eliminates greenhouse gas methane by eliminating garbage dumps.)

Those two waste incineration furnaces pump out – 400 megawatts of power- and add heat into the extensively built outl coupled co-generative heat power system- also geothermically fed- which slashes heating oil consumption in the region by an estimated 5 million barrels p.a. (Building out all over Germany, these urban waste incinerationsystems will eventually put out 16 GW of power by 2025. No bad from poop and garbage while eliminating “anthropogenic methane.” emissions)

Some “greens” advocate doing without meat to cut agrarian methane emissions from cattle, pork and poultry operations. 5000 of Germany´s 200.000 farms, 2.5% have already installed some efficient, and some not so efficient manure methane- septic tank sludge methane recapture systems, already generating 800 megawatts. When built out, and firing the methane on hybrid fuel-cell- striling motordriving generator units- we will achieve an average of 220 kw /24/7 output per farm- for all 200.000 farming units just off manure methane recapture alone /and slashing their heating oil consumption)- i.e. that is another 44 GW of power from bio-waste systems. Both bio-waste systems will account for ovr 20% of German power needs by 2025.i.e.: 60 GW of actual producing power, SMART GRID coordinatable. (Add increasingly efficient rooftop solar, and farmer co-operative wind co-ops- we get agrarian regions (such as Wildpoldsried) generating an average of 3 times more power than they consume onto the grid. (Distributed Grid- p.g. systems.)

Munich Utility engineers have been keeping a close eye on “bakken field” oil drilling operations, especially horizontal drilling- with an eye to applying deep horizontal drilling to deep, dual pipe, dry hot rock power Generation from South Germany´s “molasse” hot rock field – which produces so many health spas such as Wiesbaden, Baden-Baden, the famed Czech Karlsbad, Bad Wiesee, Bad Tolz, etc. A lot of citie and towns are drilling “dry hot rock” systems for power, and long distance heat hot water systems.

Several Munich suburbs have drilled such plants- and are providing their comkjunities with power, and and heat, and feeding heat into Munich´s extensive long distance heat- hot water grid.. still expanding and hooking up buildings to it.) .Munich Utilities are themselve now drilling horizontal drills- with dual piping for “dry hot rock geothermal” combined Rankine cycle-Stirling heat engine cycle p.g..

That will add another 500 mw to the city´s “green p.g.” program. (And Munich Utilties not only purchase locally produced, private solar power- they also operate Europe´s largest single solar voltaic installation, installed on the rooftops of the New Munich Trade Fair center out in the Trudering District on the oldairport site.(more on that just little later.) Studies are also being conducted for “pad drilling” horizontal drill dry hot rock systems around the shut down Isar I nuclear plant… saving its rankine cycle steam capacities, transformer capacities- and transmission lines. If that works out, 80% of Germany´s nuclear fleet- once producing 25% of Germany´s powe needs (with several plants already shut down) can be shifted to “dry hot rock”- i.e. producing another 20% of German base line power.

Scale model “tri-maran” anchored on stream hydroelectric systems are now being hull optimized – for one- deflecting larger marine life- while still getting good pressure water flow – onto “water turbines suspended below winter river ice levels.) Then, these drive two lightweight generators adapted from wind turbine technology on deck. i.e. we can get between 6 to 16 – mw- per unit of anchored on – stream hydro- a new form of hydro. Two on each shore- per kilometer- on the Inn and Danube rivers- from Innsbruck- and Ulm down to the Austrian German border at Passau- will put an additional 5 GW onto the Tyrolean and Bavarian grids to displace the phasing out nuclear. or complementing the converted to dry hot rock nuclear.

Now, as to buffering. Munich utilties are already buffering excess nightime hydro- slowed down “ait state conventional GAS system and bio-waste generation- with submerged fuel cell hydrogen generation. (They already run many of their utility sevice vehicles with compressed hydrogen.) Newer advances from the altenative energy “brown´s gas scene. now has them experimenting with inverters pulsing currents at 40 khz- with additinal piezo- ultrasonic waving- to boost output- on closely space titanium plate fuel cells. Plans are for two big 400 mw submerged fuel cell hydrogen generators- and reconverting the power going through.-) enough to fire one GaS system hooked up to the long distance heat- hot water grid. Plans are for Munich to be totally off fossil fuel p.g. by 2025 at the latest.

Now, people often point to the higher utility costs here, without realizing a strange quirk in the E.E.C.. Namely, back in the days of Margit Thatcher, a conservative Tory, Director General of the E.U. arbitrarilly ruled that European municipalities cannot directly subsidize their urban transit systems. The ruling was hauled before the European courts in Brussels, but was upheld. (Again by a majority of 1 , a British tory judge.) Now, cities like Munich reacted by fusing their urban transit systems with their city owned utilities. After all, there was no ruling that stated cities could not subsidize their utilities. So, the higher prices to ordinary customers are not due to all the build out in “sustainability- but to the use of utilities to subsidize the massive urban transit systems. (And Munich saves enough on fossil fuel purchases through its massive hydro-massive waste incineration, and massive long distance heat hot-water, massive wind- to build out and operate one of the world´s most advanced and energy efficient urbn transit systems. (I ride regularly with a Sr. Card subsrcription- giving me unlimited city and some suburban use- for only €410 Euros a year. My combined heat-hot water, gas and power utility bill comes to €1400. (my appliances were upgraded to A +++ efficiencies) The building i live in was upgraded to LEED class A- with hook ups to the long distance heat-hot water lines, re-windowing- i.e. putting in 1 inch wide vacuum insulation windows, three inch facade insulation, and ten inch roof insulation. (and next year- new 70% efficient solar p.v. is going up on the roof- so the building, like so many others in Munich, will really be LEED gold standard. (I.E. my total energy bill- heat, hot water, power, and unlimited urban transportation (which I use at least 4 times a day) is only €1810 p.a.. (appr. $2.265 U.S.D.) which is really not bad.

But there are even more surprises in clean tech coming out of Germany. Part of the Energy Transition- renewable energy program is to replace eventual, conventional heating oil and gas heat alone units- with eiher hook up to a long distance heat hot water system, or a switch over to nat gas fired combined heat power systems. (Mandated on all new buildings, and subsidized in replacement on older buildings)

For example, VW-Lichtblick Utities are building out 100.000 multi-family housing units with gas powered ICE Golf Engines driving A +++ rated generators- SMART GRID coordinated, as base line back up power for solar and wind while providing heat and hot water. This creates a DG- distributed grid- SWARM, SMART GRID coordinated virtual power plant – generating- 2 GW of power, with no real estate costs, only nominal annual rents of 12 million p.a. for the entire installation. Vaillant AG is selling smaller Sony ICE chp units. The Whispergen system uses Australian made Stirling motors,in CHP mode, and the Buderous A.G. makes various sized, proprietory patented fuel cell- CHP systems finding a wide variety of CHP applications… not just in CHP, but in bakeries, commercial laundries, industrial applications like cement factories, and even even silicon manufacturing (lowering the price of silicon going into solar cells. )´We´ll get back to CHP in a moment, but lets dwell on solar p.v.

Germany installed another record 6.5 GW of conventional 15% efficiency solar p.v. last year. Now, new breakthroughs in solar cell construction – radically boost efficiencies to 70%. while not raising costs that much. i.e. at the current rooftop build out rates, but with lowered costs and boosted efficiencies- we can expect the build out rate to go up triple by the beginning of 2015-19.5 GW installed p.a. and Germany will have 150 GW of built out domestic solar capacity by the end of 2025. (and we haven´t even counted the concentrated solar build out in Spain or the massive Desertec project in Morocco.)

I have heard that a Professor at the Republic of South Africa University of Stellenbusch – where prof Gerard pioneered heart transplants decades ago, developed an even more efficient form of solar- which appears to go “overunity”- where something the size of a tablet p.c. puts out the power of up to ten square meters of conventinal solar p.v.. He is reported to have sold it to Siemens for a hefty seven figure down payment for exclusive rights- but that development is still under wraps as to technical details. If they can get the production prices down, and I have no doubt that they will, then we can look forward to even higher rates of solar build out in Germany, perhaps up to 30 GW or more per annum, or for use in the Desertec build out in Morocco. I am not about to 2nd guess what they intend to do with that purchase.

Now, that all needs back up baseline power at night. This is where we get back to the fast ramp up, in building CHP systems. The next generation of CHP will be even more efficient- by combined cycle CHP- ie. either ICE – Stirling CHP, or fuel cell stirling CHP. So a future multi-family build out with ICE – Stirling will put out 30 kw of power in fast ramp up operation at night.

And if Munich utilities can store energy with hydrogen fuel cells, Brown´s gas systems- plus another form of “aqueous fuels technologies” will enable all the CHP systems replacing heating oil and natural gas heating systems- to run “overunity-all aqueous, off nothing more than rooftop runoff rainwater.

When all ten million heating oil units are displaced by “overunity” “aqueous fuel CHP, Germany will have another 200 GW, 2/3rds of its total power needs- also covered by fast ramp up baseline power “aqeuous CHP- surprise.

This gets us back to transportation. Germany already covers much of its transportation needs by efficient, state owned, state run rail (which actually turns a profit, fancy that.) and urban transit systems.. another reason – Germany uses so much less fossil fuels than the U.S.. Ditto urban transit. However, there is a conglomerate of European automotive suppliers building up and developing “all aqueous fuel systems” that can actually run either diesel or otto engines of nothing more than simple tap water going into the tank. That, and plug in electric, or plug in electric- aqueous hybrids will displace the fossil fuel use on terrestrial and maritime applications. So the only area still using fossil fuels by 2035 will be aerospace, and even there fuel consumption will be reduced.

Summing it up, Germany already slashed its fossil fuel consumption by 50% under 1992 levels by a broad synergy of energy efficiency and renewable energy measures, thus giving it the margins it needed for continuing, accelerating build out of “sustainability measures.”. Sustainability passed the automotive sector as the biggest sector in the German G.D.P. last year, and will be over 20% by 2020. In regions where the sustainability build out is the fastest, such as around Stuttgart and Munich, the unemployment rates are way below global average, namely under 3%. The Munich region is close to 2.5% unemployment- with only the long term unemployed still being on the dole. (Factual full employment- meaning asouth Gemany has to import workers from places like Greece and Spain, lowering their unemplyoment rates.

Thus, everything the authoress described about the positive benefits of aiming towards a 100% rewewable economy is more than coming true for Germany. 2.5 % unemployment and steady growth in the sustainability sector speaks for itself. Energy efficiency technology, such as new Siemens production lines, using both power management systems and A +++ rated motors- which use 55% less energy – on a fully automated automotive producion line, also enjoy a high export rate to countries like China, Japan, and Korea. I am confident that all future breakthroughs such as aqueous fuels technologies in CHP and automotive areas, increased efficiency solar voltaic and wind, efficient urban transit and high speed rail systems, will also continue to enjoy a high export popularity, helping to cut global greenhouse gas emissions.

The 100% energy efficiency and renewable energy goal can be realized, and is being realized in Germany although many people scoff.

Oh, I forgot one thing, the group that developed the aqueous fuel systems for ICE- and fuel cell systems is also working to develop “all aqueous fuel” gas turbines, meaning any coal plant will soon be able to be upgraded to aqueous fuel, combined cycle GaS operation using “overunity” magnetic resonance steam ignition which liteally violates both the 19th century Helmholtz 1st two laws of thermodynamics, and the dictum he used to illustrate them- “you cannot run an engine off its own steam.”

Now, Gemany can do this, because as one ex-minister of environmental protection put it- “We don´t have the Koch brothers.” LOL.

Kent, ROFL when you claim that burning animal waste or biowaste generally saves GHG emissions. It might by human definitions, but not in Nature. That organic material is labile and will put CO2/GHG into the air, whether you do it fast by burning or slow by normal decay.

You’ve made the classical error of doing near-static, short term analyses instead of long term dynamic analyses. If you use hot dry rocks for energy, they become cold dry rocks. And so on. Just give it time.

“In Germany renewable energy deployment has already resulted in more than 380,000 jobs. Especially in 2008 – the year of the global economic crisis – the sector proved its importance for growth and employment with an increase of more than 10%.”

This is a one-sided statement frequently made by RE promoters.

Because of subsidies, RE sectors, such as wind and solar, are gaining investment and jobs while producing energy at about 3 – 5 times the levelized cost (on an unsubsidized basis) of existing energy production.

According to Economics 101, whenever one introduces a more expensive way of generating energy at much greater levelized costs than existing, it will, all things being equal,

– raise the prices of goods and services for all households and businesses,

– increase energy expenditures for all household and business, except the few with PV solar systems.

– reduce expenditures on the now more expensive goods and services in non-RE sectors, which will reduce the revenues and profits of businesses and incomes of households in these sectors, thereby decreasing investment and decreasing job creation in these sectors below what they would have been.

The net result is RE sectors gain investment and jobs, non-RE sectors have investment and jobs below what they would have been.

Due to the RE economic inefficiencies,i.e., expensive energy generation, the non-RE job loss is greater than the RE job gain, for a net LOSS of jobs.

That loss may reduced by on-going increased efficiency measures in the non-RE sectors, thereby masking the real job loss.

In stagnant economies, as in Europe,, such masking is minimal, hence the social unrest, anxiety, etc., in the population about the high unemployment, income security, etc.

Anna, most of these anti-sustainable experts in the US were commenting while parked in their car during rush hour on a busy freeway with the engine running. They will dump numbers to prove nothing will provide enough energy for everybody to drive one ton cars from mall parking lot to mall parking lot, and shop in over-lit climate controlled environments for products shipped from the other side of the planet. And of course, they are right; in a perverse way.

The US is headed for a lifestyle adjustment one way or another. In my tourist area I’ve already seen tourists change from hauling 4 snowmobiles on their trailer to more modest 2 snowmobiles. And far more modest cars and motorboats hauled behind city bus sized motor home campers. Insanity is not a legitimate goal.

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Kent Otho Doering

January 14, 2013 13:06

Good to have you back on board with your usual, miscalculated anti-renewable rants Williem.

The economic disorders of the PIIGS – Portugal, Italy, Ireland, Greece, and Spain did not result from “renewable energy programs” as such. (Greece hardly has any of that at all, and imports a lot of fossil fuel generated energy from both Turkey and Bulgaria for your information.) Stop claiming investment in renewables caused those problems- they were based on the hysterical “boom” in real estate inflation speculative housing, vacation housing programs- a real estate inflation bubble heated up by U.S. banks doing ‘”global collateral rents at a point a month” – and “credit derivate swaps” with the naive Europeans- before the bubble burst in 2008, plunging America and Europe into depression. You get your economics straight.

(Where´s you learn yours, from Glenn Beck when he was still spouting Hayeck on Faux News?)

Now, your comments about Germany are off base as usual. Your claims about producing energy at 4 to 5 times the levelized costs is utter nonsense. The difference between “fossil fuel based” systems and renewables – lies in the fact that with renewables – calculated over a 20 year amortization period, 80 of the costs are up front, while 20% of the costs are in upkeep and maintenance. (And that does not mean that after the 20 year amortization period, the installations keep on operating and producing given the proper maintenance.)

(Goodness, an aquaintance of mine, industrial film maker Jochen Richter, built a passive heat recapture solar house, with vacuum tube – reflector aided solar heating, and not too efficient and exorbitantly expensive solar cells- (Carter era) – back in the late seventies- early 80s- including, now get this- a wood burning- cellulose waste burning stove hooked up to Stirling motors driving generators for deep winter, and an intersting small vortical wind turbine system. (Built back in 1982- and, fancy that Jochen´s house is still more than energy autonomous and still feeding energy back into the grid- forty years later.)

So, Germany has a reducing feed tariff for solar. Efficiencies for producing and installing solar have increased, and the feed in tariffs are dropping. Germany just installed another 6.5 GW of rooftop and field solar last year- boosting installed capacity from 29 GW at the end of 2011 to 35 GW at the end of 2012, with no slow down expected. The C.D.U.-C.S.U. /F.D.P. coalition government put a build out cap on rooftop and field solar F.I.T. tariff programs – of 60 MW, after which it only becomes a deductable energy upgrade expense. That will occur sometime around mid-2017 at the present build out rate if not earlier.

However, even after the F:I.T. expires Germany will still be massively building out on building and parking lot solar, for the simple reason that heat recapture and other technologies are sinking the costs of materials on the one hand,.and several cost effective breakthroughs are boosting light to power conversion efficiencies from- 15% to well over 70% – with not much added net price to the installation, i.e. after the funded “infancy”- solar is reaching “grid parity”.

So, by 2025 – we can expect that Germany will have an installed solar capacity of 150 GW- or the daytime equivalent of 150 nukes – or 750 big 200 mw, coal fired power plants. (saving an awful lot of coal purchases over the decades, don´t you think?

Apart from the locally developed boosts in solar voltaic p.v. efficiency, I understand that the German sponsor of this site just inked a patent contract with a Professor at the South African University of Stellenbusch where Christian Barnard pioneed the art of heart transplants decades ago. From what I hear, they paid him a very handsome 8 figure down payment in Euros- to secure the rights to an “ultra-efficient form of solar p.v. with absolute record breaking, thought to be impossible efficiencies- namely, a small unit with a surface area barely bigger than a tablet computer- putting out the power comparable to quite a a few square meters of conventional 15% efficient solar p.v.. I heard this from an energy consultant to the Association of S.W. African States, but I know no further details than the Prof´s name and the sum of money he received. What the German company does with it, and when it will bring that “super solar” to market is something I know nothing further about. Perhaps they could be getting it ready for “below grid parity mass production and marketing” when the feed in tariffs expire. Solar can be compared to the p.c. industry growth- both are silicon related, and the p.c. industry enjoyed steady increases in computing power with steady decreases in costs. (My first “I.B.M.” compatible 82086 with all of a 20 mb hard disc and a five inch floppy cost me- about 3500 DM in 84. My latest laptop- dual core i7 was considerably less some 28 years later.) So what makes you think that Moore´s law is not also applicable to Solar and Wind energy? That is awfully ignorant of you to assume that. Jochens solar installed in 82, was not nearly efficient as today´s panels, and cost about 5 times more than today´s installations.(His was a partially subsidized “demonstration” installation co-sponsored by Siemens, Deutsche Flachglass, Thyssen-Krupp, Kloeckner, et al. )

Let´s ,keep rolling down the list of other renewables, some of which you have never even heard of Willem Post, and which you certainly never consider in any of your comments.

None of your bizarre projections are coming true for a number of different reasons. Here in South Germany, the cities and industrial companies have a full 67 year year history of “energy efficient” reconstruction and build out after W.W. II. People learned how to improvise and find “new forms” of energy…For example, “illegal, improvised, small dam p..g. went up in the Alpine foothills and the Alps- some of which are still up and running.

But there are two other art forms of energy efficiency besides hydro that the German´s cultivated after WW II – which the American´s sadly neglected and let decline.

1. This is the 1 you have to look at very carefully. It is something that was practiced in all east coast American cities, still is, but not much built out or improved since the fifties. This is coupled co-generative, long distance heat and power. You´ll find it in places like Boston, New York, Newark, Trenton, Philadelphia, Baltimore Washington and other older U.S. east coast and rust belt towns.

But it was not much built out after W.W. II. and often then badly maintained as heating oil and natural gas units were perceived to be cheaper than building out long distance heat and hot water grids. Germany really didn´t have the luxury of either much heating oil or much natural gas– and people didn´t want to freeze…. and as the economy slowly got rolling again, even coal was rare… so they started building out, and re-building their connected-to-coal utility long distance heat – hot water grids… and connecting as many buildings up to them as possible.

Then, in Communist East Germany, they were building out Soviet style apartment buildings all over the place to replace the bombed out, shelled out, and burnt out housing in cities like Dresden, Erfurt, and Berlin. Of course, these “socialist worker´s paradises” were supposed to be healthy and clean- with the cleanest possible air-

Some east German engineers recalled how they hit hot rocks instead of oil in the desperate days to keep the Wehrmacht supplied with fuel..and that started a spree of “dry hot rock” geothermal – long distance heat and hot water- in addition to the build out from the coal fired plants. Those systems are still in place.And they are still saving Germans there an awful lot of money – by slashing the need to purchase oil or gas – for heating. That is a reliable renewable that saved and saves money over decades… and enables amortizing other forms of renewable installations along with it.

Let us take Munich for example. it is an urban region comparable in size and population to its partner city of Cincinatti,Ohio. It started rebuilding and building out its long distance heat and hot water system as its war widows were collecting the bricks and rubble from bombed out buildings and putting them on special built small narrow gauge railroads hauling it all to dumps just north of the city. (now hills around the Olympic Park.) The rebuilding Munich utilities kept building out the heat hot water lines, often tearing them out later, rebuilding with better insulation efficiency and re-covered. Most new postwar – replacement buildings going up in the late forties, fifties, sixties and seventies in many sections of town where the lines were aviqalbe were hooked up. These long distance heat and hot water lines are still being expanded and built out.

And today, those grids (hooked up to insulated, energy upgraded buildings-)now save Munich- the equivalent of over 5 million barrels of heating oil every year, that is close to 800.000.000 liters of heating oil saved every year. People using that service still pay for heat, but not as much as for heating oil by comparison. And, consider today´s price for heating oil- 88 Euro cents per liter. So, at the current state of long distance heat hot water, combined heat power build out- Munich utilities are already saving the Munich region the equivalent purchase price of heating oil of about €700 million per annum. Anna was writing about combined heat power in her article, and you unfortunately overlooked that massive savings factor in your overzealous, compulsive obsessive, Sancho Panza- tilting at windmill desire to portray the German “Energiewende” – “energy transition” as as something which will lead to bankruptcy.

That energy efficiency measure savings of over € 700 million lets the city invest in other energy efficiency and renewable measures, does it not?

And, besides combined heat power, the German´s hav another excellent energy efficiency measure where the Americans now lag far behind, a massive efficiency measure that Mr Willem Posts most conveniently ignores in his ignorant criticisms of the German Energiewende

€ 700 million saved every year on heating oil there lets the city invest in other things does it not. And these savings on fossil fuel energy enable even more savings on fossil fuel energy that come from other areas in “sustainability” that Mr. Willem Post most conveniently ignores in his specios and stupid calculations about the Germn “energiewende”.because he´s missed a lot of key factors involved in the economy.

Now lets take another look at Munich energy efficiency. Way back the 60s, towns and other cities downriver from Munich, on the Isar River and the Danube got tired of the sewage coming from this large city, and told the town to clean up its act. It first responded by channeling the stuff into a series of special bio- filtereing holding basins and letting the sludge settle. It partially worked. And the city was facing another massive problem that many American cities and cities around the globe often face- it was simply running out of garbage dump space. The dumps north of the city were literally turning into ugly stinky mountains of trash, and something had to be done about i.

Two methane generators were built in the Freimann section of town – west of the Isar River… one handled sewage sludge in “paddle methane generators”- – piping both the gas and the remaining sludge under the Isar to a big- garbage waste incineration plant – in Oberföhring.-with the gas firing two big waste incineration chambers- driving two – Rankine steam cycle generators. The other plant in Freimanning a special cellulose- to peat composting system- which again genereates bi-waste gas… for more power and heat. Before re-greening- the old garbage dump mountains- received plastic sheeting and concrete- and plastic “methane” recapture – to keep the greehnhouse gas methane- still being generated in the old dump– from escaping into the atmosphere. (methane has a greenhouse global warming reffect 25 times highr than co²… so it makes sense to caüpture and burn anthropogenic methane.).

But let us return to the Oberföhring garbge incineration plant – a waste to power and heat system. It burns all of the trash from Munich and surrounding suburbs- an urban region of about 2.000.000 people feed garbage into the trash- and obtains- 400.000 mw- of power from poop and garbage, and feeds into the extensively build out- building out – long distance heat hot water- combined heat power system Anna Reidleiter was writing about here, There´s another coal burning Rankine cycle unit between the two trash units- generating – 400 mw- also feeding into the extensive and building out – long distance CHP system.. (Fancy that, Munich Utilities returns everything I flush down the toilet and throw into the trash back to me in the form of power and long distance heat and hot water!)

Now, let´s take a look at another “huge” energy saver that grew up in Germany after WW II. Now, my late father was a Lehigh trained engineer, who went on to study law and became a railroad lawyer with the Baltimore and Ohio. And, he raised me with one true-ism… “There is no more energy efficient way to move people or freight than a steel wheel on a steel rail.”

I shall return to the energy saving- post WW II German build out of urban transit and rail systems in my next follow up comment. These energy efficiency systems also ensure that Germany will stay profitable and booming in the coming years despite Mr. Posts most dire and pessimistic predictions which have no basis in the actual macro-economic reality of modern Germany.

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daCarso

January 17, 2013 19:25

Well, people have the choice to believe people like you on the internet, or they can believe real experts and the unfolding reality that shows renewable energy growing globall at an exponential rate as costs fall further and further.

I’m inclined to believe reality.

P.S. Contrary to your flawed claims, renewable energy is driving down energy costs in Germany and avoiding increasing bills for fossil fuels. That avoided cost is only going to keep going up as more renewables are deployed.

Nonsense. Germany’s electrical rates are the highest in Europe – because of renewables, predominantly wind. I don’t where you are getting your information but I might suggest that you check with the German utilities to verify. Wind energy always drives cost up.

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daCarso

January 17, 2013 20:57

The nonsense comes consistently from the anti-renewable energy gang who ignore all inconvenient facts and make up what they want to be true.

As a result of the existing RE build-outs, Germany has the 2nd highest household electric rates in Europe, about 24.06 eurocent/kWh, including taxes, fees, surcharges, etc; Denmark has the highest at about 25.62 eurocent/kWh; France has on of the lowest.

You are looking at GRID prices that have liilte to do with household electric rates which have risen much faster than inflation or utility energy prices. Apples and oranges.

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daCarso

January 17, 2013 21:10

Without the huge, 60 years of subsidies nukes would not exist.

Without the huge subsidies of production subsidies, consumption subsidies, not paying external pollution costs, avoiding the military bill, fossil fuels would not exist.

Your ideological opposition to renewables is preventing rational thought which requires looking at all costs.

Your claim about the electricity costs of Germany and Denmark are false – http://www.energy.eu/ – although both countries do choose to levy high taxes to allow for investment in clean energy and promote efficiency. Some people refer to this as ‘grown-up thinking’.

Xcel Energy has asked for an across the board 9% rate increase to offset the expense of being forced to buy wind power while electrical demand continues to go down. In some regions of Minnesota citizens have experienced rate increases of up to 22% since the mandate to buy wind was passed by the legislature. Enron established the framework for industrial wind here and elsewhere. Doesn’t that give you a warm fuzzy feeling?

The international community has called for attention to the plight of bats dying by the thousands at the base of Germany’s wind turbines. Researchers following bats have found that many of them had migrated over 1000 miles before hemorrhaging to death when they flew near Germany’s industrial wind facilities. Bats are a Keystone species, which means that ecosystems collapse without them. Reports on two Minnesota wind facilities show 20 bats per MW and 40+ per MW dying per year. Bats are slow to reproduce so this wil lhave a detrimental effect on their populations…..which are necessary to maintain balance in an ecosystem.

USFWS reports a 47% loss of raptors where industrial wind is installed. (No, they don’t all collide with turbines.) Loss of habitat and habitat fragmentation are the leading cause of species extinction. Clearly they are losing their habitat, which is being fragmented where birds spend most of their time – in the air. Why is it that “greenies” ignore these obvious environmental issues, focusing on only the successes instead of learning anything from the failures all around them?

It appears that you, deCarso are the one only looking at one side of the ledger on this issue. I am not opposed to renewable energy and am, in fact, a fan. However, industrial wind cannot deliver the goods and is, as a matter of fact, environmentally destructive.

Germany’s grid provider has said that wind can only reasonably provide about 10% of their electricity, which is why they are building 23 coal-fired plants. I’m digging for the link to post their comments. I’m not opposed to industrial wind but think people need to be realistic about what it can and cannot do. There is a difference between what it can do and what we hope it can do. After 40 years of working with it, we have a mature technology and have found it’s limits. It’s time to accept this fact and put our noses to the grindstone to find something that really works.

You are almost right for once. Fossil-nuke corporations are struggling because renewables are rapidly eating in to their profits, so they are begging for handouts from the government to help them.

Your concern for bats is touching but misplaced. Unmitigated climate change is far, far worse for bats and the planet. Wind power is a key solution according to every credible source and is delivering growing quantities of clean, sustainable energy.

Your confusion, and denial of science and facts will not slow down the exponential growth of renewables.

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daCarso

January 18, 2013 04:06

You need to read some credible sources to understand why your beliefs are so flawed. Start here:

Germany’s plan: switch from coal and nuclear to renewables. – note that this is a very conservative projection and will most likely be beaten as previous targets have been beaten

Despite people like you claiming it can’t be done and it’s a failure, renewable energy keeps on being deployed and keeps bringing the benefits you claim are impossible. Reality trumps your evidence-free claims.

Your belief that wind power has reached a “limit” is simply ignorance on your part. If anything technology advances are accelerating as costs fall.

Typical, calling someone a “science denier” because they do not agree with your point of view. It is a scientific fact that loss of habitat and habitat fragmentation are the greatest cause of species extinction. It is a fact that the USFWS has noted a 47% loss of raptors where industrial wind is installed – loss of habitat. It is a fact that Altamont Pass is one of the deadliest wind energy facilities in the US. The cause of high mortality of golden eagles is due to habitat fragmentation in their air, where raptors spend time foraging for food. It is a scientific fact that bats are a keystone species and without them, ecosystems collapse. It is a scientific fact that industrial wind turbines kill bats at a rate of 3 – 50 MW per turbine per year. It is a fact that the number of whooping cranes is rapidly declining after the installation of industrial wind in their migratory flyway and over-wintering habitat. It is a scientific fact that low-frequency noise is deployed as a military weapons system and that the symptoms caused by this weapon are the same as those reported by citizens who have industrial wind sited too close to their homes. It is a fact that low-frequency noise can be measured, and has been measured inside homes that have been abandonned by citizens suffering from the effects. It is a fact that those calling others science deniers continue to deny all of the above scientifically proven facts because it does not suit their agenda. According to Westwood Professional Services, a wind industry survey company, permitting of industrial wind is political so science is not important. The job is to influence the perceptions of decision makers. Green tags, traded and sold, are “perceived benefits”. I am SO tired of wind energy advocates calling names and defending industrial wind while denying the science that tells us it is an industry driven by perceptions, not science. There are 0 studies done to tell us how much elasticity there is in the environment, how much devastation it can tolerate as a result of industrial wind, before it collapses. The only “studies” done related to economics and technology. You cannot have informed, environmentally responsible implementation of any policy if you do not include the environment in the assessments.

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daCarso

January 18, 2013 05:00

Now that you try to defend a climate science denier and a creationist it shows that you must also be a science denier which explains why you are so confused and misinformed on energy, and that you repeat very flawed and stupid anti-renewable memes that have been debunked thousands of times.

Renewables continue to grow exponentially as costs continue to fall and the technology continues to advance. Wind power is reducing CO2 and other pollutants, and providing growing amounts of sustainable energy. Your denial of science and facts don’t change them.

I didn’t defend anyone, but there you go again, making assumptions and jumping to conclusions. No wonder you are so misinformed. Political science and actual science are two completely different things. Wind power isn’t “reducing CO2 emissions and other pollutants”. Denmark and Germany have both deduced that. I suppose you still believe in the hockey stick theory! Which science do I supposedly deny?

I suppose you also believe wind power will reduce our dependence upon foreign oil, daCarso? Wind power is far more expensive than conventional sources of electrical generation but the costs are buried in the capital expenditures and O&M. The amount of power produced is no where near name plate capacity, which is substituted for actual capacity numbers, which are Trade Secret. You clearly only read the rags that support your misguided conclusion instead of reading from all sources and making an independent determination. But, you’re far from alone.

This is why Minnesota Rural Electrical Association lost 70 million dollars? Mandates force utilities to purchase wind energy when it can’t be used and it can’t be sold to consumers. The utilities off-load it to MISO at a loss. The losses rise with the installation of more wind. If our government was really interested in reducing CO2 emissions they would work more diligently on electric automobiles. Automobiles release more pollutants than coal fired plants, but you would know that if you were actually dealing with reality. Wind can never be a baseload provider of electricity. Never. Ever. It is simply not possible.

“You state “However, Denmark is the only European country that has committed itself to 100% renewable energy in the electricity, heat and transport sector. Using an acceptable definition of renewable energy, can you categorically state that when plans are completed, Denmark will be able to do away with all energy imports and be self-sufficient on renewables? What happens when the wind don’t blow and the sun don’t shine?”

Why the deadly silence? Only a fool would imagine that a country the size of Denmark or larger can be run entirely on the (artificially defined) renewable energy basis. Think aeroplanes powered by windmills that turn propellors on the wings as you drift off to the pleasant smell of whatever you are smoking.

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daCarso

January 18, 2013 15:12

Yes, wind power will reduce reliance on oil as transport systems are electrified.

You really should try to learn the basics of this subject before trying to argue about it.

The excuse for installing industrial wind is that it will reduce our dependence upon foreign oil and reduce CO2 emissions. We’re doing both already. If we were serious about it we would sink our money into the transport sector, improving on electric cars as we do not have the population base to economically sustain mass electric transit in most US states. You’re trying to sound intelligent and are trying to be condescending, which is very common to far-left liberals and right-sinded Repugnicans. It’s not working and diminishes anything and everything you have to say. You clearly think you are the best informed and smartest poster on this site, but you are far from correct.

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Kent Otho Doering

January 18, 2013 16:24

You know Geoff, you keep asking the same questions other renewable sceptics ask. Munich Utilities have the stated goal of having the region entirely off fossil by 2025. I won´t get into detail here, but it entails other energy forms.

If you have ever followed “Browns gas” on the net, you will notice all kinds of advances have been made in that area. The same is true of very tightly packed normal hydrogen fuel cell technology.

Munich Utilities get a lot of energy from hydro- and now are upgrading its hydro by re-powering, i.e. upgrading the old, inefficient generators to A +++ with corresponding changes in their transformers as well. Wow- instant renewable just by repowering. 100% more energy from hydro by generator upgrades from the older, inefficient generators.!

Now, Munich has several “under the radar renewables” also being applied in Denmark. Munich utilities use methane recapture on a “composting” cellulose bio-digester- turning separately collected “compost” wastes (leaves, grass, vegetable garbage-) into peat and methane-. They also have another plant which takes sewage sludge and “digests” it to methane- feeding both generated gasses to two big 200 mw – high temperature waste incineration plants. (poop and garbage power – 400 mw – aint bad. especially when you consider it all excess heat flows right into the extensive, modernized insulated, long distance heat and hot water system. Copenhagen is building out a similar urban bio-waste system which puts a full 400 mw on the grid. Sweden is also building out those “urban bio waste systems like mad as well.) Reason- sewage and garbage dumps emit methane- which has a greenhouse warming effect 25 times higher than co². So it makes sense to recapture the methane and use it to incienerate garbage in high temperature waste incineration plants – and utiliize the cooling system steam condensor- for long distance heat hot water.

(Munich´s system displaces over 5 million barrels of heating oil every year..) Very effective.

The other hidden renewable is deep geothermal. The city is building out a capacity of 400 mw on that, and also putting the extra heat into the long distance heat hot water lines.

The other “energy efficiency measure- on those lines- is simply putting up huge- heat exchange Alpha Stirling motors on the lines- driving A +++ generators. (which makes everything at least bi-cycle or even tri-cycle power generation.) And excess energy from solar and wind also goes into big, tightly packed plate, high pulse frequency “hydrogen” fuel cell buffering systems. (that is “the battery” taking excess daytime solar, wind, hydro- and converting that to hydrogen as the back up baseline power source- going into big combined cycle- gas and Steam power plants (feeding the heat hot water lines, and the Stirling generation) and the fuel cell- steam combined cycle power plants.

Now lets talk about farm manure methane recapture and on site- hydrogen buffering. Germany and Denmark are building out farm septic tank sludge- and manure methane digester systems (from cattle, pork, and poultry operations.) Of course, solar is on the farm rooftops, and farmers also have their wind co-operatives. (Now, excess power from wind and solar also goes into hydrogen fuel cell- buffering.)

So does the manure methane recapture… and all that goes onto advanced, hybrid, fuel cell- stirling motor combined heat power (CHP) systems. (The build out of that will put out an additional 44 gigawatts of power in Germany- and these systems have extra fuel cells to pick up the buffered hydrogen- needed when the sun goes down not powering- the solar, or the wind does not blow.)

That is, the agrarian regions always produce enough energy to be self sufficient, and when all systems are working- they genrate up to 4 times more power than they use… and urban utilities use the excess power to generate hydrogen for buffering.

Of course, there is another hidden renewable building out, namely in building combined heat power systems displacing heating oil units. The most efficient systems are hybrid – internal combustion engine driving generator- with Stirling motors.. on the back end after the heat exchanger putting out additional power, or fuel cells – with Stirling motors on the back end after the heat exchanger putting out additional power. Now, here is the kicker. The additional Stirling cycle is being applied in new kinds of tightly packed, high pulse d.c. hydrogen generators (with filtered roof top runoff rainwater- to avoid scale formation) for buffering… (that is rooftopl solar in and in house- CHP also generates hydrogen going into buffering tanks/ and additional- “Browns gas” fuel cells.

i.e. these systems replacing all 10 million heating oil units- will be “overunity” running off the hydrogen and browns gas they generate – from the additional Stirling cycle.i.e. all aqeuous micro-CHP- Diversified SMART GRID coordinated- will provide an additional 200 GW of power 2/3rds of Gemany´s basic power needs- that are fast ramping- and can be installed at a system price of about 1.200 Euros per producing KW… (no real estate costs involved – except for “nominal rents”.) saves on heating oil on the one side, and coal for firing power plants on the other side- thus- rapidly self amortizing inside of four years.

(aqueous micro-chp is the ultimate back up base line power for both wind and solar. One hundred thousand multi-family housing units converted that way form a virtual power plant- putting out 2 GW, the equivalent of two nuclear power plants.)

Aqueous fuel CHP- systems- are the clean tech buffer for the massive wind and solar build out in Europe.

German nuclear capacities are being shifted to deep geothermal.

Heavy industry will also be applying heat recapture, – aqueous CHP on all the thermodynamic processes… (For example, a fuel cell under a brewing vat- and Stirling motors over the vats on the exhausts- driving “Browns gas” generation. (and banks of ICE engines- powered by browns gas- driving generators- with additional Stirling motors on the exhausts driving DC generators-

On the energy efficiency side- automated production lines use 55% less energy than they used in the 90s. And let us not forget all the excellent German mass transit and German rail which takes traffic off the road. And those light rail streetcars, subway systems, commuter rail, regional rail, and 180 mph ICE high speed rail are all brake energy recycling systems these days (Germany and France are a good 60 years ahead of the U.S. in the build out of state of the art- high speed rail.) Saves a lot of oil imports.

Of course, the next thing coming in the German automtive industry- also affecting micro-chp, are hybrid brown´s gas- Magnetic resonance steam ignition- all aqueous fuel systems for diesel and otto engines.. and all operators have to put in the tanks of their winterproofed, all aqueous cars will be plain, ordinary tap water. Cars will run off that or be all electric. The state makes up for lost fuel taxes by installing cell monitored mileage driven toll collection billed off one´s account at the end of every month.

Wind- solar – deep geothermal – bio waste systems- aqueous fuel systems- re-powering of gnereators and motors by upgrades to a+++ rated systems, power management systems, building insulation systems, heat management systems etc. will enable countries like Germany and Denmark to take their buildings, power systems, manufacturing, food processing 100% off nuclear and fossil by the end of 2030 at the latest.

Americans usually don´t notice, but Germany managed to slash its fossil fuel consumption by 50% since 1992 through the end of 2012 by a broad synergy of energy efficiency and renewable energy measures. And with a lot of new technologies in the arsenal of “renewable and energy efficiency” measures- they will do the rest by the end of 2030.

Solar on the rooftops and aqueous fuel powered mícro-CHP in the cellars assures a 24/7/365 renewable heat power supply.

I was recently out in an “all aquous experimental vehicle. Lightweight carbon fibre mid-engined GT.. with a racing tuned 7 liter Ford V8 in the back… putting out a phenomenal 900 BHP to power the 900 kg car. 0-60 in 2.5 seconds. Top end speed … 400 kmh. (250 m.p.h) I was out in another “slower” car– an aluminum bodied diesel station wagon– with “only” 350 BHP, also converted to run “all aqueous”..

These things are the wave of the future. (Aqueous micro-chp in buildings to supplement solar and wind and hydro- etc. is a game changer.)

I don´t mind clean tech sceptics scoffing. Goodness, 20 years ago, when I told Americans that Germany would rapidly build out solar and wind, and apply “energy efficiency” to slash fossil fuel consumption by at least 50% by 2012, I was ridiculed as “marijuana smoking visionary”. Today, that is a fact. i was and am aware of all the developments going on here in Europe, and delightedly watch as the country keeps going off nuclear and fossil with a broad synergy of sustainability measures at rates close to 5% per annum.

Goodness, in 93, I read about the experiment of a German physicist with “microwave sonoluminensce” of diesel fuel in diesels which had the potential of cutting consumption by 50%. When I wrote about that in an American journal, i was ridiculed. Today, that is S.O.P. in all diesels made around the world in common rail, fuel injection engines which are 60% more efficient than 80s style carburreted engines.

Really. The Inn River and the Danube have high flows through Tyrol and Bavaria. Floating, anchored on stream- with water turbines suspended below the freezing ice level- and with “wind turbine” gnerators on deck – will provide an extra – 5.100 MW of power to the region. Then, with massive Browns gas generators – pumping out up to 50.000 cubic meters an hour of browns gas- we will smelt iron- to pig iron- (cute) with additional heat recycling – p.g. on the system… and the pig goes into special electo-kilns which smelt inside an hour (also with heat recycling p.g. to drive the rolling mills.)

We re doing the same with silicon, copper and glass. That means, we are slashing the raw material prices for silicon solar cells. And by adding two layers of glass voltaic, one layer of plastic encased glass voltaic, and a fresnel lense system on top- we boost the efficiency of solar to 70%. i.e. Germany is currently installing about 6.5 GW of rooftop solar p.a.. By boosting efficiency for times, while cutting the price of raw materials, we give it “grid parity” lowering manufacturing costs- while boosting efficiency- – pushing the installed producing watt price under 50 euro cents per producing watt. That transltes into about 20 GW of solar being installed on German rooftops every year. So we can expect at least 150 GW installed by 2025.

That and in building, aqueous CHP systems- are the game changers.

Please be sceptical and scoff. But do keep your eyes out for all aqueous cars on the European racing circuit this year. All aqueous cars also mean all aqueous CHP. Imagine replacing heating oil units with rooftop runoff rainwater powered CHP systems.

All kinds of interesting developments are happening. Is it not wonderful that German engineers also asked what do you do when the sun isn´t shining (at night) and the wind is not blowing- so they could come up with cost effecive solutions for back up baseline power systems, installed for less than1.200 per producing kilowatt- including the tear out and disposal of the old heating oil units.)

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Kent Otho Doering

January 18, 2013 16:39

Yes, but Paloma- not just natural gas, but bio-waste systems like garbage incineration and manure methane recapture. And then there are the aqueous fuel systems in small hybrid CHP displacing heating oil- at very cost effective prices. Put solar on the roof, and aqueous chp in the cellar and what do you have.. 24/7 renewable!

Check out Wildpoldsried as an example village using wind, solar, and manure methane recapture-with hydrogen buffering to feed extra fuel cells- consistantly putting out 3 times as much energy as it consumes.

Do check out VW-Lichtblick nat gas CHP systems for back up baseline power systems. Building out 100.000 of those puts 2 GW of smart grid coordinated baseline power on the grid.

Now, check out- Korean B.E.S.T. Browns gas generators. The small units- attached to the Lichtblick CHP mean – 100 % all aqueous back up CHP – using nothing more than rooftop runoff rainwater.

Goeff: I live in a country that is a little bit larger than Denmark, and lies to its south. Since 1992 through 2012, it managed to reduce its fossil fuel consumption by over 50% by a broad synergy energy efficiency measures and building out renewable energy, i.e. cutting its consumption at a rate 2.5% per annum.

And goodness gracious, some cities already have a per capita fossil fuel consumption of less than 30% than any comparatively sized city in the U.S.. And, the city i happen to live in has announced that it ´s energy generation and building heating will be entirely off of fossisl fuels – by the end of 2025.

The city is the headquarters of a few major global companies such as M.A.N:, Siemens, and B.M.W. and none of their executive officers have reason to believe that the head of its utilities are pulling our legs.

I happen to be very familiar with all of the energy efficiency and renewable energy measures reduced its fosssil fuel consumption by 50%, and am intimately familiar with the broad synergy of technologies it will use to exit- nuclear and fossil by the end of 2025.

The countries “sustainability sector” outpaced its booming automotive industry in 2012 and the country´s largest sector in the G.D.P. over 12% , and is expected to be 20% by 2012.

And people from all over the world line up with their checkbooks to buy things like “automated assembly lines, or assembly line upgrades that reduce consumption by at least 55%, or things like HVDC line transmission transformers which cut power loss during transmission, or computer systems for distributed smart grid management.

Others buy consultancy as to how build a building that not only cuts heat and air conditioning energy needs by 90%, but how to build one whe it constantly generates power onto the smart grid using only the energy sources around it.

It is a city which upgrades its buildings, and hooks them up to long distance heat hot water lines, and uses things like sewage and garbage to generate power, in addition to other things like wind, solar, hydro-electric re-powering, and deep geothermal long combined heat power systems..

So everything I throw in the garbage and flush down the toilet is liteally returned to me in the form of heat and power.

And farmers in the region not only have solar cells on their farm buildings, and participate in wind co-ops, but utilize cattle, pig, and poultry manure- putting it manure methane generators- powering hybrid fuel cell – Stirling motor power generation while heating the buildings. (Areas built out like that generate three times as much energy as they need. And when the manure methane recapture systems are totally built out- they alone will generate 44 GW – the equivalent of 44 nukes – fancy that- poop power.

The country is converting all of its nukes to a new form of deep geothermal dry hot rock-with additional heat recapture- Stirling motors on the cooling lines. (efficiency) as well as building out new, big geothermal power plants.

I could go down the list. It´s exports exceeded over 1 trillion Euros last year, and over 130 billion of that were in Energy efficient and renewable energy systems.

Sustainability is so good that the unemployment rate is under 2.5 % in the region where I live. (And because we spend 70% less money on purchasing fossil fuels- that money can be invested elsewhere to futher build out sustainability. Fancy that.

It is a city which saves commuters a lot of money with 8 commuter train lines extanding out in 15 different directions, 6 subway lines that wind through town all the way out into the country, 20 streetcar lines, and quite a few ultra efficient common rail diesel hybrid busses. (going aqueous diesel later on.)

The country is a bit larger than Denmark, and many of its city utilities have the announced goal of being entirely off both fossil and nuclear by a broad synergy of energy efficiency and renewable energy measures. (For example it is 60 years ahead of the U.S. in the build out and operation of brake energy recycling high speed rail- travelling at 180 mph which takes a lot of fossil fuel automobiles off the road and airplanes out of the air. (currently running nuclear, later to run off nuclear converted to deep geothermal.)

You know, I was just out in a very interesting experimental car. The body is lightweight carbon fibre, the same carbon fibre used in the Championship Red Bull Formula 1 car. It´s a mid engined couple, weighing only 900 kilograms. The engine is a race tuned, Ford 7 liter V8 putting out 900 horsepower onto the axels. Now, the engineers use a special form of browns gas- combined with Magnetic Resonance steam ignition. And other systems- demineralize normal tap water right in the vehicle. It goes from 0 – 60 in 2.8 seconds, and has a top end of of 250 m.p.h. (When I had it out, on the no speed limit on Sunday Munich-Salzburg autobahn-. I didn´t have the guts to take it above 180 m.p.h.. But the joke is, it runs off water.

And that is another secret as to how Germany will be off nuclear and fossil by the end of 2025.

Scoff if you will. But do consider that the fossil fuel consumption in the Munich region is already 70% lower than any comparative U.S. region. The Upper Bavarian region will be off nuclear in toto by the end of 2022, and off fossil by the end of 2025 by doing everything Miss Leitreiter suggested and much more than she ever even heard about.

Ro learn more- google “Siemens – The Crystal” and check in to see what future sustainable cities will be all about.

(Funny, Siemens claims it is exiting “concentrated solar”- however, I got the word that a prof of physics at the University of Stellenbusch in South Africa developed a brand new type of solar p.v. where a unit the size of a tablet p.c. generates the equivalent of of over 10 square meters of conventional 15% efficiency – solar p.v. currently going up on German roofs at the rate of 6.5 GW per annum. I heard he sold the exclusive rights to the sponsor of this site- for a juicy – 8 figure sum in Euros as a down payment on his patent fees.)

I also got the word that its competitors G.E. and Lockheed received some very lucrative 15 year contracts out of Africa to build out a total of 98.800 wind turbines… by 2030- to help bring power to the 700 million Africans who still do not have electricity. Isn´t that nice? Scoff at wind and solar, the rest of the world is not making fun of either. As part of the Desertec program, Siemens is putting up 7.500 wind turbines on the constant, trade wind rich Atlantic coastline of Morocco to serve Moroccan, French and German needs. French Alstom is also putting up 7.500 in the same power class. Now, 15.000 turbines-on that desert coastline- each generating 6 mw– will put out 90 GW, the equivalent of 90 nukes or 450 big 200 megawatt coal burning power plants.

Europe passed the 100 GW mark in installed wind capacity last year. And at the present build out rates- capacity will be way over 500 GW by 2025. That is the equivalent of 500 nukes or 2500 big coal burning power plants.

So what you are looking at, is the world´s leading per capita industrial country with a population of 80 million people- going entirely off nuclear and fossil fuel by 2025.

You are perfectly free to be skeptical, but first inform yourself as to some of the measures. I could recommend the e-book from Kindle- “Clean Break” by Oshe Grey Davidson- which will give you an approximate vaque idea as to how the country is moving off both fossil and nuclear although he doens´t pay much attention to things like brake energy recycling high speed rail, or the production line upgrades using 55% less energy in German car factories, but it does begin to describe how rural gerions are getting very advanced, and produce 3 times more energy than they consume.

I live in “future energy” already. 80% of my heat, hot water and power is renewable in an upgraded, insulated building- connected to the long distance heat hot water- system returning everything I flush down in the toilet and throw into the trash back to me in the form of heat and hot water. i step out the door, and can hop on a brake energy recycling new Siemens subway train, or go to the other end of the quaint-,tree lined cobble stone street and across the tree planted square to the intersection of the subway- with two Siemens built- brake energy streetcar lines, and two Daimler- or M.A.N. common rail diesel bus lines on a short- consolated line stretch. And during rush hours, they all pulse every 5 minutesö. I really don´t need a car do I. And I just hop on a subway.. and in five minutes, I am at the energy saving Munich central station, and can hop 180 MPH high speed rail to all German, French and Austrian destimations. (You won´t have that in either California or the East coast- until 2030. (O8ur ICE system has been up and operating since 92! 48 years ahead of you.)

And that 900 ,kg -900 hp carbon fibre race car – running all aqueous was fun to ride in “once” at 180 M.P.H. (I get nervous at anything over 120 if I am not behind the wheel.) (Early Sunday mornings at Sunup – on the Munich to Salzburg autobahn- the “speed freaks” go out in their Turbo-Porsche`s Lamborghinis- Mercedes AMG, BMWs, Turbo Porsches and put their foots to the floor. Whoosh!)

But now we won´t have to worrry about Global warming when European cars shift to all aqueous in the next decade and a half. – so let them speed. I vastly prefer no sane speed limits to no sane gun control.

I`ve been out in an all electric Tesslan and now was in the all aqueous “m” car. 0-60 in 2.8 seconds. running off water!

Can a country the size of Denmark close its borders and exist purely on renewables? Yes or No?

Clue. Imagine you are at Honolulu and think.

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Kent Otho Doering

January 19, 2013 14:14

Denmark is well on its way- with open borders to German, Norwegian, and Swedish renewable systems.

For example, it sells “wind power” to Norway in exchange for Norwegian “hydroelectric”.

You are really not too bright. Denmark is also building out sewage methane recapture – firing waste incineration plants- (400 MW for Copenhagen alone thank you.)

It has extensive dairy farming, poulty and pig farmng. That is building out- with manure methane digesters- and the methane goes onto hybrid fuel cell- Stirling motor generators and heat exchangers- for farmhouse, heat, and hot water. Combined with rooftop solar, local farmer wind cooperatives- these regions generally produce 3 times more power than they consume. (Google – Wildpoldsried to see how a German village is doing it. There are Swediish islands on the Baltic Sea- doing the same thing that are “now energy independent” for heat, hot water and power, thank you.)

Now, check out “LIchtblick Utilities”. ‘Anna wrote about “combined heat power. VW teamed up with Lichtblick to build out Norwegian nat gas powered combined heat power systems… String together 100..000 such units and you get a SMART GRID co-ordinated virtual power plant gnereating the euqivalent of 2 nuclear power plants. Google “Lichtblick” and they have an English language presentation.

Now, the funny thing is, you can hook those “Lichtblick” CHP units up to a “Brown´s Gas Generator”- and get them to literally run off- rooftop run off rainwater- to avoid scale formation. And where do you get those “Brown´s gas generators” which can power those “Lichtblick” CHP units. Well, Google- “Korean B:E.S.T. brown´s gas generators” and you will find they make them in all sizes.

You asked the dumb question “what do you do when the sun don´t shine and the wind ain´t blowing. And you just got the answer as to how the Germans and the Danes, among others, are doing it.

Goodness, if you put the wind turbines way out in the ocean- you get to exploit the constant ocean high sea winds. Siemens, the sponsor of this site- just completed and delivered two big offshore inverter platforms for the first traunch of the North Sea Helgoland- Offshore wind project- 3.500 MW- with the full build out being 5.100 MW.

The answer is – yes Denmark is heading for full 100% renewable power. Munich utilities are also aiming for 100% renewable power by 2025. – getting renewable from as far away as Andasol solar in Spain, and coastline obnshore wind on the Island of Rugen- from 6 mw turbines built by Siemens.

So that answers your question. Denmark is well on its way to 100% renewable heat and power systems.

Yes, by the end of 2025, Denmark will b 100% renewable for power, heat, and hot water.

So will Germany. Do take a look at that VW-Lichblick CHP system, and take a look at Korean B.E.S.T. brown´s gas. Solar on the roof, and that in the cellar- turns any building into a 24/7 power plant no matter what the season.

(I was just out in a 100% “aqueous fuel car- a lightweight, carbon fibre GT- made from the same carbon fibre that is used in the world championship Redbull F1 car driven by Sebastian Vettel and Button.

Now, the fun part was- that 900 kg lightweight- has a 7 liter Ford V8 tuned to 900 HP. It does 0-60 in 2.8 seconds. Top end end 250 m..p.h. (I was only up to 180 m.p.h. on the German autobahn with it.)

The neat thing is- the car runs entirely off tap water. Now, that same system is going onto CHP units in cellars. Shit, we will be able to generate power and heat with that in winter at the South Pole with that system alone. Anything else? Take a look at the Siemens smart grid trailer here. They have solutions ou don´t know about or want to know about in your “heartlands institue” rejection of renewables.

Kent, great post, thanks. I made some comments earlier in this thread. Can you please read them and comment and also go to my report and have a look. My design is a green grid for sustainables energy shipment and storage. All your systems seem to be moving forward. I will need to learn about the aqueous.

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Kent Otho Doering

January 20, 2013 03:32

I recall the Fraunhofer was experimenting with buried “Very High Direct Tension”- using a similar concept- namely reducing the already low resistance of Very High Direcct Tension (VHDC) and cutting random “signal noise”, but burying the lines… in well insulated, vacuum evacuated copper tubing.” (The current flows faster through the vacuum- with zero resistance.” ) But by and large, the German energy equipment suppliers like Siemens and A.E.G., or French Alstom, are committed to building out overland HVDC lines to meet future German transmission needs, such as carrying North and South Baltic sea coastline and offshore wind power into and around the country.

The big- public private- over regional power and transmission utiliteis are involved in that buildout as well as German rail which maintains its own 7.500 km long power grid. (All it needs to go HVDC is string extra HVDC lines on its high tension towers.) 6 major North South, and about 7 East West HVDC lines are projected and being built out.

The systems I mentioned are not “my” systems Other people developed them and are moving. My only contribution to the turmoil of the German “energy transmission” has been aqueous fuel systems.

Transmission is changing. Instead of a few big central power plants feeding into the grid… we are literally getting millions of small power sources feeding in- The trick is in coordinating the p.g. – and balancing them to avoid radical fluctuations – especially when supply more than meets demand or when demand exceeds supply. (Rooftop solar does not work well in the early evening when demnd is hightest.)= Every roof top solar unit feeds power onto the grid. Every mid sized Combined Heat power unit feeds power onto the grid. Every farm equipped with manure methane recapture- fuel cell Stirling combined heat powr system feeds between 150 to 220 kw onto the grid. (When built out, German farms will generate a full 44 GW of manure methane power. That´s a lot of power from cow manure, bull shit, pig poop.and chicken shit. the equivalent of 44 nukes- or 220 big coal burning power plants.

(Thanks to that build out, we will not have to build an extra 80 coal burning power plants. They are only being discussed, and are far from being approved.)

The point I am trying to make here is that the nature of the grid in Germany has changed. Instead of being one way from the central power stations, they are two way streets- in a DG formation.

The trick lies in coordinating all the different feed ins… and in something called fast ramp up”. When the solar is running- the Gas and Steam pwer generation is “turned down”. Wind parks have variable pitch blades, and have a range of leeway in ramping their power generation up or down to match both wind conditions and demand on the other side.

This is all new technology created by the new demands being placed on the grid. Now Germany talks about “Distributed Smart Grid” power generation. If building owners cooperate with utilities in replacing their old heating oil units with “Combined hea power”- these are not just thermostadt controlled, but centrally managed via “SMART GRID” – and coordinated into SWARM virtual power plants-

That is, if you have 100.000 VW Lichtblick Utility – Combined Heat Power units in multi-family or residential commerical buildings- replacing heating oil- they form a “back up base line power” source for solar when the sun is not shining, and when there are variations in wind gneration. They can be centrally ramped up or ramped down. Add a Stirling heat exchange motor- driving brown´s gas genrators- and these are “all aqeuous systems”. running off rooftop run-off rainwater. And 200.000 thousand Distributed Smart Grid units in the state of Lower Saxony mean – the equivalent of 2 nuclear or ten big coal fired power plants that have to be SMART GRID – coordinated.

Consider a normal big commercial bakery. Buderus corporation holds patents on fuel cell combined heat power systems. Big commercial bakeries- use a lot of gas in their ovens. However, many are now upgrading to the Buderous system- adding fuel cells to their ovens- for combined heat power… and more-

Smart ‘Grid also means intelligent metering- which moniitors “prosumer” feed in- (via solar and combined headt power) and prosumer- consumötion… so the utiltiies can do accurate short term forecasts as to just how much power will be needed… or how much power will be fed in that has to be buffered by fuel cell hydrogen production.

Internet- plus the grid = “smart grid”.

Now, if you would just tak a look at the trailer here on the site by the Sponsor Siemens. “Constant Energy in a World of Constant Change”. Just click on “Siemens Smart Grid” trailer to the right.

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Kent Otho Doering

January 20, 2013 16:30

Sure it can. A village like Wildpoldsried- in South East Bavaria establlishes that any any area in Europe, large or small, can go 100% renewable, if you allow manure methane recapture driving fuel cells to be included a part of the “renewable mix” (bio-waste system)

But the game changer is what Anna pointed out above- COMBINED HEAT POWER -CHP The stuff is mandated on all new German buildings, and gets tax deductions, and direct subsidies from the eco-tax funds- for retrofits. Instead of separately burning fuel for heat and then more fuel for power, you combine them- saying a lot of fuel expenditure.

Community- city utilities like Munich do CHP . Munich´s long distance heat power system saves the equivvalent of 5000 million barrels of heating oil a year. Fancy that.

Now, it costs about €25.000 to come in to a multi family dwelling unit, tear out the old heating oil unit, and replace it .withan “all aqueous” water as fuel- combined heat power system. The price includes cleaning and electro-insulating the old oil tanks- and c.n.c. controled “rooftop runoff rainwater” collectors which channel rainwater into the tanks (filtered and electro-sterilized to suppress mould.)

The price includes a four cylinder VW Golf engine – dirving a 20 KW generator- and a 2 KW “brown´s gas generator from KOREAN BEST Browns Gas company. (So there isa real output of 18 kilowatts per hour when the thing is running in baseline back up mode at night for rooftop solar!

Now, the average multiä-family unit uses about 5000 liters of heating oil a year, delivered at a cost of about € 88 Euro cents per liter. That shift elminates those E4.400 in heating oil costs, and the installing city utility only charges half the heating rate to building owner- cutting heat hot water costs to the end consumer by 50%. It generates a “heat” revenue for the utility of €2.200 for the utility while saving the customer €2.200.

Used as backup baseline power- for all the solar going in, the installing city utility will SMART GRID coordinated operate that CHP unit- about 12 hours a day.- i.e. generate power from a Brown´s gas -water-as-fuel system – selling it on, and reducing the price of delivered power, dilluting the solar feed in tariffs with this “aqueous fuel system”. – and say it earns a profit for the ulity of 10 Euro cents per generated kWh. And assume it operates 12 hours a day- averaged out throughout the yer.

That is, the unit generates € 2 Euros worth of power every hour. Multiply that by an average 12 hours. That is, the installation- “earns” the utility – €24 per day. That is, the unit generates a power revenue of 8760 accrueing to the city owned utility which it puts into its averaged cost mix. Combine that with the €2.200 heat revenue- and it generates a combined heat-power revenue of €11.000.that accrus to the utilities evey year.and which they also pay taxes on.

A leveraged eco-tax program through the parallel public banks provides less than 1% interest on the loan .and while the real amotisation takes place in only three years, they repay over a period of 10.

String 100.000 multi family units with CHP, each one generating 20 kw- and you have a virtual power plant generating – 2 GW – literally runnong off water. So we can classify that as “rnewable. And it provides both power and heat.

When all ten mjillionn heating oil units in Germany are displaced by that – they will provide a baseline backup power- average 20 kw per unit- of 200 GW – the equivalent of 200 nukes- or 1000 big coal burning power plants.

Now, Germany is exiting nuclear power which currently produces about 25% of German power needs. However, the cost effective alternative to simply tearing these down- is to leave them up, and convert them to deep geothermal, which turns them into “renewable.”. Add that to the incrweasing build out off geotheremal in Germany, and geotheremal will provide 40% of German power needs by 2030. (We get iinto renwable redundancies here.)

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Kent Otho Doering

January 20, 2013 16:52

The Island of Oahu has an abundance of sunshine, wind, and geothermic potentials. it could go totally off fossil for power, air conditioning – hot water It could be totally renewable in 10 years.

By the way, check out the “Constant Energy in a World of Constant Change – to see how Siemens organizes and bundles different renewable energy sources on the Diversified Smart Grid to assurre constant power supplies. Brilliant electrical engineering. it is the box to the right here.

“Goodness, in 93, I read about the experiment of a German physicist with “microwave sonoluminensce” of diesel fuel in diesels which had the potential of cutting consumption by 50%. When I wrote about that in an American journal, i was ridiculed. Today, that is S.O.P. in all diesels”

Say what? I actually have worked on making diesel on an inudstrial scale from a frac tower. Also

“We re doing the same with silicon, copper and glass. That means, we are slashing the raw material prices for silicon solar cells. And by adding two layers of glass voltaic, one layer of plastic encased glass voltaic, and a fresnel lense system on top- we boost the efficiency of solar to 70%.”

NREL must be doing something wrong then as they quote the highest efficiency is in the mid 40’s from Sharp.

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audreygreenwood

November 28, 2014 03:25

This article sounds so good in theory, but honestly, short of discovering a new type of storage for renewable energy, it’s going to be quite difficult to actually implement the idea of 100% renewable power. What would you think if we could just have moving boxes packed to the brim with glorious energy that magically channels the stuff into homes? Hahaha!