Farming publications

Weekly Economic Commentary

Monday July 1, 2019

As hard as it is to believe, we're already halfway through 2019. In some ways it feels like the year has barely started, at least until you look at financial market pricing and realise just how far many of them have moved. Let’s just recap on what has happened this year to date:

All eyes will be on this week’s RBA board meeting to see whether the RBA delivers another monetary policy easing to bring the official cash rate to an historic low of 1.00%. The announcement will be at 2.30pm eastern time Tuesday afternoon.

Expectations are high that the RBA will cut again following some very open comments from the RBA Governor. In a speech earlier this month, the Governor was asked the question, "are interest rate going to be reduced further?" He responded by stating that the RBA’s "latest set of forecasts were prepared on the assumption that the cash rate would follow the path implied by market pricing, which was for the cash rate to be around 1% by the end of the year."

The probability of a cut this week in financial market is currently 70% which increases to 100% for an August cut.

Disclaimer: Whilst all care has been taken in compiling the information, the information should not be relied upon as substitute for professional advice where necessary. Rural Bank accepts no responsibility for the accuracy, completeness or timeliness of the information and disclaims all liability in relation to any loss or damage suffered by the use of or reliance upon any information contained herein or in any attachment or annexure hereto by any person. Rural Bank – A Division of Bendigo and Adelaide Bank Limited ABN 11 068 049 178 AFSL 237879