But the group remained divided over its production ceiling, and
failed to reach an agreement.

And that's pretty grim news for about half of the cartel's
members, who are already struggling with low prices amid a supply
glut.

"[The] OPEC meeting ended without a decision, putting on full
display the vast divide between OPEC
members," wrote RBC Capital Markets global head
of commodity strategy Helima Croft. "We
believe that the current OPEC strategy — or non-strategy — leaves
a significant portion of the cartel at risk for a significant
crisis in 2016."

Notably, there are two camps within OPEC: one that definitely
can't handle the stress of lower oil for longer and one that says
it can. The crisis-prone, high-risk "fragile five" — Libya, Iraq,
Nigeria, Algeria, and Venezuela — want higher prices ASAP as they
risk plunging into deeper economic and political chaos, while the
relatively better-off Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) members —
Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Kuwait, and the UAE — can sort of weather
the lower prices for now.

"This chasm ... was on fully display at the initial morning press
conference. Qatar's energy minister ... stated that the
non-interference strategy is working [and] predicted the market
would balance in 2016," noted Croft. While on the flip side,
"Venezuela's energy minister ... warned that the price situation
was extremely critical and that prices would drop to $20/bbl
without OPEC action."

However, this wasn't the only major stress-point for OPEC
last Friday.

While de facto OPEC leader Saudi Arabia adopted a more
conciliatory posture in the days leading up to Friday's
meeting, Iran decided to play hardball.

"If anything, it was the Iranians who were
publicly displaying a lack of flexibility in the runup to the
meeting," wrote Croft. "The Iranian energy minister, Bijan
Namdar Zangeneh, ruled out Iran accepting any output restrictions
until the country's exports returned to pre-sanctions
levels."

That's not exactly surprising, as Iran is on the cusp of
reaping serious economic benefits if/when sanctions will be
suspended. Still, its "refusal to abide by any output
restrictions likely contributed to the lack of any real decision
from the cartel," noted Croft.

And, although Croft doesn't mention this point exactly,
it's also worth reiterating that Iran and the Saudis vie for
regional hegemony — and it's interesting to see
the reversal of fortunes. The former,
which is poised to win big after years of incapacitating
sanctions, took a tougher stance, while the latter, struggling
with budget pressures and rumored internal divisions, took the
more "conciliatory" route.

In short, OPEC's lack of real decision betrays the deep divide
within the cartel, and that could mean pain for some of its
members going in the upcoming year.