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The 21 year old pitcher

Despite what Cincinnati Reds manager Jerry Narron or most baseball experts say, Joe Nuxhall predicted last Thursday night the Reds’ starting rotation could well include Homer Bailey at the start of the 2007 season. Nuxhall was master of ceremonies at the 28th annual Knights of Columbus Sports Stag, held at the Father Butler Council in Hamilton.

“I’m saying right now, I think he’s going to be in the starting rotation,”

Nuxhall said of the 20-year-old Bailey, the Reds’ most promising prospect who was almost untouchable at Class AA Chattanooga last season.

I’m not going to waste time challenging that assertion, running stats or conversions for Bailey. But I will note that his 1.19 whip and 1.59 era in AA look good. I’ll also have to note that the praise comes from Joe Nuxhall a man who toed the mound of Crosley at the age of 15.

That lead me to ponder two things, one what kind of 16 year old gets to play major league ball, and two what does history tell us about 21 year old pitchers and the Reds?

I’ll break up the eras as thus

1876-1899. An era marked by really volatile player and franchise movement, when the game is unstable and weak Bill James said that there is usually a larger amount of younger players and ones that achieve success. It’s no big surprise that all but two of the players who have played major league ball at the ripe age of 16 or younger arrived during three distinct eras:

1. Pre-1900 - An era of multiple unsteady leagues and teams, youngest player is Fred Chapman a 14 year old who pitches for the Philadelphia A’s in 1887, at a distance of 50 feet, before the mound was installed.

2. World War 2 - Shortage of talent

3. Bonus Era - Era of bonus baby rules

The two dissenters were Jim Curry and Coonie Bank who each appeared in one game at the age of 16 in 1909.

Also note that the batters are often skill position players (catcher Coonie Blank) and shortstop (Alex George), in fact since the 19th century all the players who appeared in the game at the age of 16 or younger were either a pitcher of a skill position player.

Alex George was the last 16 year old to get an at bat in MLB, he was a shortstop called up by the A’s in 1955, their first year in Kansas City, a year that saw them lose 91 games, when you lose 91 games your roster often has some weird appearances her and there. Jim Darrington is the last 16 years old to get an at bat in MLB. He was a bonus baby signing by the White Sox and had to spend the first two years of his career on the ML roster. He was out of the league by the age of 18.

As for the Reds they too have a long history of young pitchers flaming out and some doing well. Let’s look at the Reds 21 and under and see what their history looks like. We’ll keep it simple, innings pitched and RSAA (RSAA–Runs saved against average. It’s the amount of runs that a pitcher saved vs. what an average pitcher would have allowed.)

The Reds prove to have their largest group of pitchers under the age of 21 in the years prior to 1900, almost 70&#37; of them pitched before the current distance of 60′ 6″ was instituted.

The next group is from 1900-1941, a pure pitching era in Cincinnati (aside from some brief years in the early 1900’s)

This group is mostly highlighted with a couple of Pete’s (Donahue and Schnieder) and Sea Lion Hall, one of the earlier relief type of pitcher. Born Carlos Clolo, “Charley” Hall was a thick-lipped man who resembled a sea lion I suppose.

The next group is what I like to view as the Bonus Era, this era is when scouting was king and the goal was to bring home the best players, both the cheap and the rich. Baseball worried about the rich stocking up their farm systems with too many prospects, therefore they instituted a rule that the player would have to be carried on the major league roster for two tears. This is what Koufax did, as well as Harmon Killebrew. It worked for them others like Jim Darrington flamed out quick in the face of all that talent.

Maloney and O’Toole were two of the larger Reds signings in the late 50’s. Osteen a local Cincinnati boy (Reading) was too nervous in Cincinnati and eventually was traded to Washington, who later used him to get the Adam Dunn of the 1960’s, Frank Howard. Osteen and Dave Skaugstad appeared at the age of 17 for the Reds in 1957, Skaugstad would never make it back.

Once again the appearance of 21 and younger doesn’t produce a star at that stage, nor any RSAA numbers that really help the team.

The next group will comprise the second deadball era, the 60’s and the 70’s were low scoring eras and with that usually comes young pitching.

If any group of young pitchers the Reds ever had stands out it’s this group, a perfect mix of the Bobby Mattick signings and the draft work of both Jim McGlothian and later Bob Howsam. The above list tells me one thing for sure. Gary Nolan was a stud, if Homer could throw a season like Nolan’s 1967 (or even Wayne Simpson’s 1970) then the Reds could exceed expectations pitching wise again this season.

Of course the above list also is a laundry list of broken wings and broken dreams, the game eats young pitching and sometimes it doesn’t spit it back up.

Once Howsam left and the game slowly morphed into the style we see today the young 21 year old pitcher stopped showing up in Cincinnati and from 1981-2006 we’ve probably seen them less then any other time in the teams history.

Again the above is a collection of relievers and failed starters, with Jeff Russell representing the cream of the crop.

Regardless of the talent Homer has and regardless of the need for him to carry the Reds (someday), he’s likely going to have a very tough road ahead in the major leagues, it’s not an easy place to play and it’s not any easier for younger guys as the record shows. They tend to get overwhelmed and well, who can blame them.

Remember in this game there have been more Dave Skaugstad’s then Gary Nolan’s.

Re: The 21 year old pitcher

Re: The 21 year old pitcher

Of course the above list also is a laundry list of broken wings and broken dreams, the game eats young pitching and sometimes it doesn’t spit it back up.

It's the chance you take. I'm wondering what might have been if both Nolan and Simpson had the advantage of the advances in arm surgery that is
available now. It will be interesting to see when Homer gets the call.

Talent is God Given: be humble.
Fame is man given: be thankful.
Conceit is self given: be careful.

Re: The 21 year old pitcher

Regardless of the talent Homer has and regardless of the need for him to carry the Reds (someday), he’s likely going to have a very tough road ahead in the major leagues, it’s not an easy place to play and it’s not any easier for younger guys as the record shows. They tend to get overwhelmed and well, who can blame them.

Remember in this game there have been more Dave Skaugstad’s then Gary Nolan’s.

I think this is why, Nuxhall's prediction notwithstanding, that Bailey starts in AAA. I've said it repeatedly, WK seems to be a firm believer in all levels of minor league play and progressing accordingly. I continue to think we'll be a better organization for it.

Re: The 21 year old pitcher

WOY, you missed this part where Nuxhall added this

"The big thing that has to happen, he has to show consistency with his breaking ball and off-speed pitches," said the 78-year-old Nuxhall, former Reds pitcher and radio broadcaster, probably the most beloved sports celebrity in Southwest Ohio.

Re: The 21 year old pitcher

Thats true....
I went and looked into the 2000-2005 seasons for pitchers 21 or under who threw 80 or more innings. I went with 80 or more, becuase at 21 I figure 160 innings for that age is a full season, so 80 would roughly be half a season in the bigs at the age. Here is the data I came up with:

Now while there were releivers in there (Johan Santana, Francisco Rodriguez), if you look at the starters only, which there were 21 starters in the bunch. There were 5 starters of the 21 with ERAs over 5.00. That leaves 16 with ERAs under 5.00. 76&#37; of starters in that time period produced well enough to be considered a good #5 starter for their team. 57% of the starters had ERAs under 4.00. Last year had some success as well, but I dont have the full data for that, so I left it all out. I would be plenty happy if Homer came up next year and had a 4.00-4.50 ERA as long as he was growing as a pitcher.

Re: The 21 year old pitcher

Homer's not going to be 21 till the first part of May. If they must bring him up, I hope they wait till then since 21 is the legal drinking age. That way, he can socialize with his teammates. But even that is somewhat of a caution. Homer wouldn't be the first nor would he be the last young player to go out and get wasted every night - or at the least stay out till all hours. We're talking about a 21 year old kid who is making 6 figures and has been anointed as an All Star in the making. It's enough to turn anyone's head. Reaching the legal drinking age is a rite of passage. Many people celebrate this by partying all the time. However, most of those people aren't big league pitchers making $300K a year. Now Homer can get blitzed just as easily in Columbus as he can in Chicago. But the big league lifestyle is a little different even from AAA. Whitey Herzog said that David Clyde wasn't ruined by getting called up too early, he was ruined because he partied too much. No one says Homer can't go out after games and have a few drinks and chase some skirts. But he - and the Reds - need to remember that the temptation is very great for a young man in his circumstances.

What the fans also have to remember is that it's highly unlikely that when Homer comes up he's going to be the second coming of Kerry Wood. He may be, and that will be great. But as dougdirt's chart shows, it's pretty unlikely. I'm afraid that fans are going to be disappointed in Homer if and when he doesn't immediately meet expectations.

Re: The 21 year old pitcher

Originally Posted by Chip R

Homer's not going to be 21 till the first part of May. If they must bring him up, I hope they wait till then since 21 is the legal drinking age. That way, he can socialize with his teammates. But even that is somewhat of a caution. Homer wouldn't be the first nor would he be the last young player to go out and get wasted every night - or at the least stay out till all hours. We're talking about a 21 year old kid who is making 6 figures and has been anointed as an All Star in the making. It's enough to turn anyone's head. Reaching the legal drinking age is a rite of passage. Many people celebrate this by partying all the time. However, most of those people aren't big league pitchers making $300K a year. Now Homer can get blitzed just as easily in Columbus as he can in Chicago. But the big league lifestyle is a little different even from AAA. Whitey Herzog said that David Clyde wasn't ruined by getting called up too early, he was ruined because he partied too much. No one says Homer can't go out after games and have a few drinks and chase some skirts. But he - and the Reds - need to remember that the temptation is very great for a young man in his circumstances.

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