With
28 new shows debuting on the five major networks in fall 2013, there's a
lot to choose from. While a few will go on to very long lives, others
are destined to be short-lived. Figuring out which shows will get the
early axe is no easy feat, but I'll do my best.

Last season I chose three shows, and while none were the actual first cancellation (Made in Jersey), all three were cancelled after one season and two died fairly quickly. Before I get to this year's predictions, here's a look at the first shows to get cancelled over the past five years.

As you can see, it shouldn't take very long for us to get our first casualty of the fall season, so here are my top three contenders to take home that honor this year.

Dads (FOX, Tuesdays at 8pm starting September 17)

This Seth MacFarlane-produced show starring Seth Green and Giovanni Ribisi has all of the tell-tale signs of being first to get cancelled. The early reviews are astoundingly negative. It's one of the very first new shows to premiere (FOX's Sleepy Hollow is the first to begin, premiering the day before Dads). And it's in a terrible time slot, competing against TV's most-watched show (NCIS) and the most highly-anticipated new show of the season (Marvel's Agents of S.H.I.E.L.D.).

FOX has given it a six-episode order, but I'll be shocked if all six air before it gets axed. Odds are it will resemble the last time MacFarlane produced a live-action sitcom for FOX, 2007's The Winner. That show only lasted six episodes aired over three weeks.

Lucky 7 (ABC, Tuesdays at 10pm starting September 24)

The premise of a group of people winning the lottery and having their lives changed is nothing new. NBC tried it in 2006 with Windfall, and the fact that you probably have no idea what that show is bodes poorly for Lucky 7.

The time slot is also a problem, as it will go up against two of the strongest new dramas from the past two seasons: Chicago Fire and Person of Interest. And having two not-so-great comedies as a lead-in won't help.

Finally, the show's leading man is Matt Long, who last tried to lead ABC's short-lived mid-season legal drama The Deep End. Who could've guessed that he would become the least bankable actor to emerge from the WB's Jack and Bobby, which also starred Bradley Cooper, Mad Men's John Slattery and Jessica Pare (as father and daughter) and Percy Jackson's Logan Lerman.

We Are Men (CBS, Mondays at 8:30pm starting September 30)

Taking over the time slot Partners had last season, We Are Men is one of those awkward, generic male sitcoms that just doesn't really seem to fit next to How I Met Your Mother and 2 Broke Girls. Also, Jerry O'Connell sitcoms never work out, just look back at ABC's Carpoolers and FOX's Do Not Disturb.