Hear the one about NH health insurance rates going up 90 percent?

Here is a funny story about some funny stories you may have read this week. Maybe this will provide some insight on how the Republican Party message machine works. Of course, Democrats attempt to do the same thing. You, a casual follower of politics, may not know any better.

It starts with a national report from Morgan Stanley on expected health insurance rates changes in different states next year. What it said about New Hampshire was rather alarming: Rates for health insurance on individuals went up 90 percent.

A blogger for Forbes.com wrote up the report. On Monday, seeing an opportunity, the New Hampshire Republican Party sent out a press release blaming Democratic politicians and the Affordable Care Act for the huge rate increase.

Then a local Republican blogger followed the press release by tweeting a link to the Forbes story. Within minutes, the state Republican Party then retweets the blogger. The story is then gaining interest to other media outlets. The next day, The Union Leader made it a front page story with the headline "Survey: NH health premiums up 90%."

WMUR-TV did not air a story about it.

Here's why: it's all based on one anonymous person's opinion.

You see, Morgan Stanley conducted a survey of insurance agents in 34 different states. On page six of their report it details how many people they talked to in each state. In New Hampshire, they said they talked to one person, who they don't name. Interestingly they also only got one response in nine other states. They got the most responses (31) from Idaho. For those keeping track, 21 percent of all survey respondents were from Idaho.

Morgan Stanley never promised that this survey was based on actual insurance rate data in each state. But if you are interested in that the state Insurance Department hired an outside firm to do that analysis. They found that, after you factor in subsidies in the new health care law, the average premium would actually decrease eight percent this year.