Questions Remain as China Prepares for Shenzhou 6

China's first manned spacecraft Shenzhou 5 lifts off from Jiuquan Satellite Launch Center in northwest China's Gansu Province Wednesday, Oct. 15, 2003. China became the third country to send an astronaut toward orbit, four decades after the Soviet Union and the United Sates. (AP Photo/Xinhua, Li Gang)Credit:

While some
details of China's
second manned spaceflight have emerged, still others remain a mystery as the
clock ticks down toward an Oct. 13 launch.

Two Chinese
astronauts are expected to rocket into space aboard their Shenzhou
6 spacecraft when their Long March 2F rocket lifts off, but who those pilots
will be is unclear.

"We still
don't have a good sense as to who this new crop of astronauts are," said China space specialist Dean Cheng, with the CNA
Corp. in Arlington, Virginia, in an interview. "That is the
basis for Shenzhou 6's crew."

China has reportedly trained 14 fighter
pilots, split into two-person teams, to serve as astronauts, though at least
one will not be making the next space trip.

"I will not
take this mission," said Chinese astronaut Yang Liwei - who flew aboard the country's first manned
spaceflight Shenzhou 5 - during a space exhibition in
Nanjing this month, China's Xinhua news agency reported.

Yang
reportedly explained that he wanted to allow China's other astronauts - also
known as 'taikonauts' from the Chinese word 'taikong' - an opportunity to gain experience, but the
public admission was not surprising, experts said.

"I think we
knew for awhile that Yang Liwei will not be a part of
the next mission," Cheng said.

Yang launched
into space, and into China
history books, on Oct. 15, 2003. Riding aboard Shenzhou
5, Yang orbited the Earth 14 times in 21 ? hours
before returning safely. The astronaut - then a lieutenant colonel in China's
People's Liberation Army- was promoted
to full colonel after his flight and is set to appear in a charity movie to
raise funds for children in need.

The Shenzhou 6 mission is slated to last five days, or 119
hours, and mark the first time Chinese astronauts leave their Shenzhou craft's flight module and enter its
experiment-filled orbital module, state media has reported. According to the
Chinese newspaper People's Daily Online,
Shenzhou 6 will launch between Oct. 13 and Oct. 17
and the spacecraft has already arrived at China's
Jiuquan Launch
Center in the Gobi Desert.

While Yang
will not ride aboard that flight, whether or not his two Shenzhou
5 alternates - Zhai Zhigang
and Nie Haisheng, according
to a Associated Press report
- are still in the running is unclear. Days before Yang's launch aboard Shenzhou 5, Chinese space officials had winnowed the flight
pool down to the three astronauts.

"When they
tell us, as a matter of course, who's in the [astronaut] class, with a little
more than a headshot and the comment that their ex-fighter pilots, that'll be a
sign of loosening up," Cheng said.

Yang said Shenzhou 6's flight will be noticeably more comfortable
than his, featuring heated food, sleeping bags and sanitary equipment to meet
all crew needs.

"One of my
questions is how do they go to the bathroom [aboard Shenzhou
craft] and whether or not the Chinese came up with a different solutions than
the Russians," Cheng said.

As more
details of Shenzhou 6's flight are released, the
flight's importance to the country and its China National Space Agency (CNSA)
come to light.

According to
earlier state media reports, Shenzhou 6 will launch
in mid-October after China's
National Day festivities which run from Oct.1-7. The flight's proximity to a
national holiday highlights its importance, but CNSA limits the potential
damage that a failure could inflict by waiting until after the festivities,
Cheng said, adding that space officials would likely wait until after Oct. 10 -
which is Taiwan's
National Day - to launch Shenzhou 6.

"Launching and
recovering in and around National Day has some political potential, though
there is both an upside and a downside," he added. "This is a very prominent
event and is going to have lots of media coverage."

Last week,
state news media reported that China Central Television (CCTV) will carry Shenzhou 6's launch live and was soliciting advertisers for
the upcoming space shot.

Commercial
costs for the new advertisement spots range from $316,420 (2.56 million yuan) for five-second slots up to $1.05 million (8.56
million yuan) for a 30-second
slot, according to the Beijing Modern Commercial Daily.

China officials initially refused
to broadcast Shenzhou 5's launch live, though it was replayed
after liftoff.

"I hope
they do broadcast it live," Cheng said of the upcoming launch, adding that he
expects there will likely be a 15-second delay in the broadcast.

Meanwhile,
reports of China's
construction of a new Shanghai
space center, lunar exploration plans and space station goals - Shenzhou orbital modules can remain in space for longer
periods than the flight modules - give shape to the country's future
exploration plans.

"I think
the larger program has become less tight-lipped," Cheng said. "We're actually
getting a sense of a 10-year plan."

Chinese
state media reported this month that the country's first female astronaut
candidates - 35 women between 17 and 20-years-old in age - have begun a
four-year university program coupled with science and flight instruction to
prepare them for spaceflight.

There have
also been some hints from Chinese space officials that by Shenzhou
7, Chinese astronauts will conduct the country's first spacewalk, with a
docking test slated for Shenzhou 8, Chen said.

"I think
that is a sign of willingness on the part of the CNSA to take a little bit of
risk," Cheng said. "To say, 'Okay, we do need to build up a little of an
expectation here.'"