Tim Dunne, director of global automotive industry analysis at J.D. Power, discusses some of the changes in the powertrains and architecture of future vehicles that are in process and are projected in the future as part of a global automotive industry paper that has been published in several Standard & Poor’s publications. Continue reading ›

The global auto industry is in flux with dramatic changes and growth in emerging markets—especially in the Asia-Pacific region, according to J.D. Power’s Tim Dunne, director of global automotive industry analysis.

In a recent paper that has been published in several Standard & Poor’s publications, including CreditWeek®, Dunne discusses some of these changes and provides future forecasts and an outlook for the industry in terms of auto production, changes in technology and engineering, and the impact of these changes on the environment and the economy.

Customer satisfaction with the new-vehicle sales experience in Japan has improved as delivery times are nine days shorter on average than in 2012 when there were longer delays in delivery due to the initiation of an eco-car subsidy program, according to our 2013 Japan Sales Satisfaction Index (SSI) Study.

This year, the average time for delivery to buyers of non-hybrid vehicles declines to 28 days from 34 days in 2012, and the delivery time for hybrids drops by 23 days and averages 50 days instead of 73 days. Among Japan’s domestic brands, Toyota—the largest seller of hybrid vehicles in Japan—and Honda, which had its production in 2012 negatively affected by flooding in Thailand, achieve notable reductions in delivery times. Continue reading ›

The current reduction in diesels in Europe may be mainly due to new regulations that have been passed by the EU and/or are being considered in individual European countries.

As recently as 2012, the diesel share in the European market was 46.0%, according to Mike Omotoso, senior manager of global powertrain at LMC Automotive, J.D. Power’s strategic partner. In 2013, LMC Automotive projects the diesel share to edge down by slightly more than 1 percentage point to 44.9%, and the outlook for 2014 is for a 44.0% diesel share in Europe—down 2 points from 2012. Continue reading ›

During the past five years, there has been a rise in demand in the U.S. market for compact- and even midsize-segment car and light-truck models to be equipped with more efficient, powerful and eco-friendly 4-cylinder engines. In fact, more than one-half of new vehicles purchased or leased in the first five and one-half months of 2013 were equipped with a 4-cylinder, according to data provided by our Power Information Network® (PIN) division.

One reason behind the larger percentage of smaller engines (PIN defines small engines as 3-, 4- and 5-cylinders) in the sales mix is that more brands in the U.S. market now offer these more fuel-efficient powertrains than they did five years ago. Some of the noticeable changes in powertrain penetration that PIN has tracked between 2008 and 2013 are summarized:

• In 2008, 10 nameplates in the U.S. market did not even have engine options smaller than 6-cylinders. Today, there are only three brands without small (below 6-cylinders) engines in their sales mix.

• In 2008, there were only five nameplates with over 90% small-engine penetration. Today, there are 11 brands with greater than 90% penetration.

In recent months, several China-based electric vehicle makers have been making headlines with announcements of new EV contracts in the U.S. market, while several U.S. EV makers, based in California, have been facing new challenges.

Additionally, in May, Tesla Motors made an offer to raise capital and also paid off its government loan, while Fisker Automotive may have another chance to survive with news of a possible purchase bid from several suitors.

Meanwhile, Chinese vehicle maker BYD Automotive Co., which boasts Warren Buffet as a major investor, recently signed a contract in the United States with the city of Long Beach in California to build 10 electric buses at a former RV facility in nearby Lancaster, CA. This arrangement allows BYD (Build Your Dreams) to take advantage of buy-American subsidies for electric vehicles and public transportation. BYD reportedly has made 1,000 electric buses, most of which operate in China, and has completed a pilot program with Hertz, according to the company. Continue reading ›

In looking at the future of alternative fuel vehicles—principally electric vehicles (EVs)—in the Thai market, it appears that the only push for promoting EVs is coming from the Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand (EGAT). In fact, the only comprehensive study on EV use in Thailand has been conducted by EGAT, which suggests that shifting electricity generation at power plants for use in electric vehicles would improve plant efficiency. However, can this alone be the driving force for consumers to move to purchasing EVs? The answer is an emphatic ‘No.’

Thailand’s Future Energy Plans Focus on Biofuel

A major obstacle in transitioning to EV use in Thailand comes in the form of the government’s Alternative Energy Development Plan (2008‐2023), which clearly shows that planned energy output to serve the transport sector for the next decade will be provided by biofuels, not electricity.

Thailand has an abundant supply of sugar cane, which can be processed into ethanol. Ethanol is an alcohol-based fuel made by distilling and fermenting crops, such as sugar cane, and more experimental sources such as cassava and molasses. Continue reading ›

Three years ago, Toyota Group began producing and selling the first hybrid model—a Camry—in Thailand. Since then, sales of hybrid cars in that country have grown significantly. In 2012, hybrid sales in Thailand were 19,000 units. Sales of hybrids in Thailand have been growing at an average rate of almost 60% during this time frame. Now, there are at least four hybrid models being sold in the Thai market, and this year hybrid vehicle sales are projected to surpass 20,000 units.

Despite strong and stable growth, a volume of 20,000 unit sales is miniscule in a country where projected sales volume in 2013 is 1.2 million light vehicles. The hybrid vehicle sector accounts for only a 1% share of the entire domestic market (3% of passenger-vehicle volumes). This is very small compared with an 18% hybrid share in Japan, the home market of the key OEMs that have sales operations in Thailand. To be fair, the ratio of hybrid vehicles in Malaysia, a key competitor for regional production of hybrids, amounted to just 2%, or sales of 15,000 units, last year.

Currently, we expect the market share of hybrid cars in Thailand to be under 5% for the foreseeable future. Our projection for hybrid sales in 2020 is slightly over 30,000. In comparison, hybrid vehicle sales in Malaysia are likely to nearly reach 50,000 units by 2020, and will account for almost 10% of that country’s passenger-vehicle market. Continue reading ›

By 2025, it is likely that more than one-third (36%) of new passenger vehicles in the world market will be equipped with alternative powertrains, according to a forecast from J.D. Power’s strategic partner LMC Automotive. That means that some 30 million of about 110 million passenger vehicles forecast to be sold in 2025 will rely on alternative powertrains and alternative fuels.

A majority of this group of fuel-efficient powertrains (17.5%) are expected to be hybrids—those passenger vehicles incorporating hybrid gasoline/electric powertrains (HEVs) such as the Toyota Prius and plug-in hybrids (PHEVs), which rely on both electric batteries and a gasoline engine, such as the Chevrolet Volt. Plug-in electric hybrids will account for a 5% share and gasoline/electric hybrids will make up 12.5% of the product mix. Only 2.5% of the world’s passenger-vehicle mix will be electric vehicles (EVs), such as the pure electric Nissan LEAF, in 2025. Continue reading ›

Although U.S. drivers may see a drop in the average price of gas at the pump in the next few months vs. the same time frame a year ago*, new-vehicle owners have fuel economy on their minds when it comes to their interest in advanced features and emerging technologies to consider when they purchase their next vehicle, according to our 2013 U.S. Automotive Emerging Technologies Study.

Two of 22 features evaluated in the study with the highest percentages of vehicle owners who “definitely would” and “probably would” want a certain feature enhance fuel economy. Higher interest among owners this year may be because these technologies are already available in many non-premium vehicles; they are lower-priced than some technologies and owners are already familiar with them.

Energy Feature: Highest Interest among 22 Emerging Technologies

The fuel economy indicatorfeature has the highest overall interest before a suggested price is provided (79%) and also after an estimated market price of $50 is introduced (72%). In addition, the percentage of vehicle owners who “definitely would” want the feature in their next vehicle actually edges up from 28% to 30% after a price is revealed. Also, as expected, non-premium brand vehicle owners are even more interested in this feature than are premium vehicle owners. Continue reading ›