000
FXUS64 KLUB 041110
AFDLUB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
510 AM CST Sun Dec 4 2016
.AVIATION...
Flight conditions are expected to slowly improve over the next 2-6
hours at all terminals as drier air filters into the area. There
will exist some opportunity for conditions to dip back into IFR
territory at all terminals around sunrise though any excursions
should be short lived.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 401 AM CST Sun Dec 4 2016/
SHORT TERM...
Light showers and drizzle was all that was left this morning of
yesterday`s cold mess. The center of the upper level low pressure
system was located roughly just south of Sonora, Mexico still
making a southerly trek, though a turn to the northeast is
expected today towards the Big Bend. However, thanks to how far
south the system traveled today, and as the low begins to open
slightly and weaken today moving towards us, its effect on our
weather looks to be lessening. Thus, have pulled PoPs for the
forecast area during the day, and for all but the far southwest
corner where just a slight chance remains that a few showers may
stray overnight.
A weak cold front will push through today also helping to keep much
of the area dry, though this front won`t be serving to really drag
temperatures down...that`s later in the week. It will help to clear
our skies finally, though that means the cold ahead below freezing
for the northwest half of the forecast area.
LONG TERM...
Not just a lot of change in this morning`s data as compared to the
last couple of nights. Mexican low continues to track from DRT to
TXK on Monday with a couple of trough axes passing to our north--
most notably on Wednesday which will drive arctic air into the
region. NWRLY to Zonal flow is anticipated for the remainder of the
extended though guidance becomes less consistent with the
handling of a Pacific Coastal ridge by late week.
A few showers continue to be possible Monday afternoon mainly
restricted to the southern Rolling Plains. Thereafter, the first of
two cold fronts makes its way in to the northern zones early Tuesday
morning with return flow becoming established by the middle of the
afternoon. The more significant front continues to arrival on
Wednesday. The ECM has been delaying the arrival by a good 5
hours though these arctic systems typically arrive sooner than
later. The ECM is slightly deeper with the trough to our NW as it
approaches as compared with the GFS20. This will have some effect
on highs and we will continue to favor the faster solution. Some
post-frontal drizzle is possible both Tuesday and Wednesday but
won`t make a mention of it at this point given the uncertainty. A
another lobe of energy rotates around the parent low which looks
to get southerly winds returning as soon as Thursday evening.
Thereafter, things should remain rather quiet with another front
sometime next weekend.
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
99/99/26