Jon Couture: Three long years since Sox had something to celebrate

Tuesday

Sep 25, 2012 at 12:01 AMSep 25, 2012 at 9:04 AM

Sunday will mark the three-year anniversary of the last Red Sox postseason celebration. Three hours after losing a fifth straight game, Texas lost in California, backing Boston into its sixth playoff berth in seven years.

JON COUTURE

Sunday will mark the three-year anniversary of the last Red Sox postseason celebration. Three hours after losing a fifth straight game, Texas lost in California, backing Boston into its sixth playoff berth in seven years.

The clubhouse long since closed to media, the players celebrated away from prying eyes. They'll similarly do so this Sunday, when the annual tradition of costuming up the rookies on the year's final road trip will happen for the train ride from Baltimore to New York. (We'll probably at least get some Twitpics this time.)

It will be a moment of needed levity, until of course Jose Iglesias is brutally maimed by a safety pin or Mauro Gomez accidentally puts his fist through a window. Been that kind of year.

With eight games left, there's no real need to rehash "last time" stats that all seem to connect 2012 to either 1997 (the last sub-.500 year) or 1966 (the last 90-loss Sox team). It's been a time to look ahead since GM Ben Cherington sent all those payroll obligations west, hopefully fast-tracking a return to those times when the playoffs felt assured.

Maybe it won't be so bad. After all, look at the standings. Baltimore, 93-game losers a year ago, is days from its first postseason spot since 1997. Oakland, 74-88 last season, figures to join them. The White Sox are in danger of a late collapse, but have turned mightily from 79-83 in 2011. Washington was 80-81 last year. Cincinnati was 79-83, albeit that coming off a 2010 division title.

This being the first year of a system where one-third of baseball makes the postseason, seeing as much as half the playoff field be teams that were just sub-.500 may not signify a trend. At the least, it offers hope for these Sox, who feel not three years, but a million miles away from relevance.

What can these five teams teach us? Consider the conventional wisdom about them from the spring:

— Baltimore's young pitching would probably take a step forward, but the AL East would prove too tough for them to make significant headway.

— Oakland's young pitching had promise, as did Yoenis Cespedes, but their ballpark continues to be an albatross.

— Chicago was weighed down by the underperforming Adam Dunn, Alex Rios and Jake Peavy, though Chris Sale offered some promise in the rotation.

— Washington had a stacked, young rotation, but probably needed another guy or two offensively to really contend.

— Cincinnati underachieved in 2011, but solidified its pitching by adding Mat Latos and Sean Marshall and appeared the best team in a bad group.

Each seems a story of surprise emergences and returns to form. Pedro Strop helped turn the Baltimore bullpen into the only plausible non-luck reason the O's are 27-9 in one-run games, making another strong year from Jim Johnson override that young pitching again spinning its wheels. Oakland's pitching was as advertised and Cespedes was a 20-homer guy, but Josh Reddick (29 HR) and Brandon Moss (19) overachieved too. Washington got its extra contributors in Ian Desmond and Adam LaRoche, about as unlikely a 56-homer combo as you'll find.

In Chicago, all those big names performed more in line with their contracts, with Paul Konerko and A.J. Pierzynski big too. (And Sale "» he's been great, to put it lightly.) Cincinnati? They don't really fit in the surprise category, but going from 12th to 2nd in their league in ERA speaks volumes.

What's that mean for Boston? They certainly aren't lacking for underperformers. Jacoby Ellsbury never got off the ground, thanks in large part to his three months lost to a shoulder injury. Andrew Bailey, same story. Dustin Pedroia's been smoldering since Aug. 1, but this remains among the worst full seasons of his career. By his standard, Jon Lester's been disastrous. Clay Buchholz regressed. Daniel Bard imploded. (Unlike Alfredo Aceves, who by press time may have exploded.)

Intriguing young talent? Will Middlebrooks was well on his way until a broken wrist. Junichi Tazawa has had perhaps one bad outing in three dozen games, leaving him to fight Scott Atchison for MVP among the pitchers. Then, well "» Pedro Ciriaco? Ryan Lavarnway? Iglesias?

Some leaps of faith are required in this exercise. David Ortiz will come back and not look like the 37-year-old he'll be in 2013. Cody Ross will come back, period. Jarrod Saltalamacchia will be more of the 24-homer guy you remember and less of the .303 on-base, high-strikeout guy who had a fluky power year he remains. John Lackey will pitch healthy the way we remember him pitching for the Angels.

And Cherington will orchestrate the big offseason acquisition this franchise has continually missed on since they partied behind closed doors three years ago.

The offense is unquestionably lacking for the first time in a long time. Bobby Valentine — an issue unto himself we'll save for another day — shuffled nine guys through the middle three lineup spots since the megadeal, with the Sox averaging nearly a run and a half less per game than they did before it.

That trade is obviously Cherington's mark on the organization as GM. It wouldn't be fair to think it alone will be the catalyst for a 2013 playoff run, but such thinking shouldn't be out of the question.

Pessimism didn't slow Baltimore, Oakland and the others any. And Cherington has what every teambuilder wants: resources and a largely blank slate. Time for the man the brass entrusted to show he's worthy of the title.

Jon Couture covers the Red Sox for The Standard-Times. Contact him at jon.couture@bostonherald.com, or through 'Better Red Than Dead' at Blogs.SouthCoastToday.com/red-sox