Energy Market Analysis - 03-10-2017

Gas prices moved higher during Monday’s session, recovering from the strong losses seen on Friday. Temperatures are set to turn colder later in the week which will lift demand levels, however, reduced gas-fired power generation limited gains on the near-curve. In terms of supply, Norwegian flows showed a significant increase as scheduled maintenance ended. Meanwhile, further support was provided to contracts on the far-curve by a rebound in coal prices.

Healthy wind production helped to prompt move down yesterday as the UK’s reliance on more expensive gas-fired generation was reduced. A downward revision in temperatures as we head towards the weekend helped to limit losses on the rest of the near-curve but contracts on the far-curve were supported by stronger coal.

Market Open

Market Open

Near-curve gas contracts show minimal movement this morning as the system is oversupplied thanks to healthy Norwegian flows, while CCGT demand remains low due to healthy wind generation. However, a colder weather forecast has resulted in a bullish outlook for gas prices this week. Further out, some contracts have been pressured down by weaker oil, while coal is stable.

Increases on the French market have helped November contracts to climb to a 2-week high as nuclear availability in the country will be reduced next month due to shutdowns at Tricastin. The return of another nuclear reactor was also pushed back from the 3rd of November to the 19th of December, it is expected that exports from the UK will be required to make up the shortfall. Strong wind has helped to limit some of the near-curve gains, with little support provided by fuel markets.

Brent displays another loss this morning with some pessimism in regards to rebalancing the market in the final quarter of 2017. Prices decreased for the fifth successive session as major news outlets have reported that OPEC’s production cut compliance figures are disappointing.

1-year forward prices

Market close data has revealed that the 1-year forward price for both commercial gas & commercial electricity decreased slightly – closing at 44.93ppt and £44.58/MWh, respectively.

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