Thomson case may see ALP safe to election

The arrest and charging of former Labor MP
Craig Thomson
will inflict further political damage on the Gillard government but not hamper its ability to stay in power until the September 14 election, Labor insiders believe.

Labor will continue to accept Mr Thomson’s vote until, if and when he is convicted and, in the meantime, the MP can argue that he has the right to appear in Parliament before court.

Under Section 14 of the Parliamentary Privileges Act, a court cannot compel an MP to appear within five days of, or on, a parliamentary sitting day, according to government advisers.

Strictly speaking, with Parliament to resume on Tuesday next week, Mr Thomson could argue against appearing at his scheduled court hearing on Monday.

Moreover, under the constitution, Mr Thomson cannot be disqualified from Parliament unless convicted of an offence which carries a jail term of a year or more. Mr Thomson intends to plead not guilty to the 150 charges against him and any trial is expected to take months, if not longer.

In the unlikely event the matter is resolved quickly, and Mr Thomson is convicted and, hence, disqualified, there would be a by-election in his NSW Central Coast seat of Dobell. The timing of a by-election is up to the Speaker of the House of Representatives and can take up to three months.

Given Julia Gillard has set the election down for September 14, a by-election caused by a quick court case would most likely be delayed until the general election, to avoid cost and inconvenience to local voters.

In all likelihood, Mr Thomson, who has been granted bail, will continue to attend Parliament for the remaining nine weeks the House of Representatives will sit before the election. The last MP to stay in the house while having been charged was Labor’s
Andrew Theophanous
. He was jailed in 2002 for bribery and fraud and served two years.

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The government can operate without the now-independent Mr Thomson but it will be on thin ice. Presently, on the floor of the House of Representatives, there are 70 Labor MPs, 72 Coalition MPs and seven crossbenchers: Mr Thomson, Tony Windsor, Rob Oakeshott, Andrew Wilkie, Adam Bandt, Bob Katter and Peter Slipper.

For the government to pass a bill, it needs five of these crossbenchers and can usually rely on Mr Windsor, Mr Slipper, Mr Bandt, Mr Oakeshott and, at times, Mr Wilkie.

If the government needs to defeat a Coalition motion, such as a censure, it needs at least four of the crossbench plus the casting vote of the speaker, Anna Burke.

If there were a byelection in Dobell, the Coalition would most certainly win and Labor’s hold on government would be untenable, but this is a remote prospect, given the proximity of the election.

The government rejected opposition suggestions that the setting of the election for September 14 was motivated by the knowledge Mr Thomson was about to be arrested and to ward off the prospect of a byelection.

Of greater concern will be the political damage when Parliament resumes next week.

Opposition leader Tony Abbott said on Thursday, after hearing of Mr Thomson’s arrest, that Ms Gillard, not Mr Thomson, would be his focus.

“The Thomson matter isn’t about what Craig Thomson may or may not have done,’’ he said.

“It’s always been about the judgment of the Prime Minister . . . who was running a protection racket for Craig Thomson for months and years, long after it was obvious that there were issues.’’

“You certainly can’t expect that there won’t be questions raised about prime ministerial judgment by the Coalition.’’

Ms Gillard declined to comment on the matter, saying it was before the police and courts.