Senate News & Analysis

January 4, 2019 · 2:27 PM EST

North Carolina. Thom Tillis (R), elected 2014 (49%). The Republican defeated Democratic Sen. Kay Hagan in one of the closest races of the 2014 cycle. Tillis will be a target this cycle considering Barack Obama won the state in 2008 and Democrats won the governorship in 2016. But the party…

by Ryan MatsumotoDecember 14, 2018 · 2:29 PM EST

Last month, Inside Elections revealed two of our new statistics: Baseline and Vote Above Replacement (VAR).

Baseline captures a state or congressional district’s political performance by combining all federal and state election results over the last four election cycles into a single average. VAR measures the relative strength of political…

by Stuart RothenbergNovember 29, 2018 · 9:15 AM EST

Midterm elections and presidential cycles have such different dynamics that the two should almost never be discussed together. That will not prevent people from doing so, but they should resist the temptation.

Midterms tend to be referendums on the incumbent president, while each presidential election is a choice between nominees.

by Nathan L. GonzalesNovember 28, 2018 · 12:46 PM EST

Even though it looks like California will be counting votes until Christmas, I’m ready to close the book on the 2018 midterm elections now that the Mississippi Senate race is over. Yes, I know there are runoffs in Georgia and Louisiana for state races, but the marquee matchups are complete.