Fourth-warmest November at PBIA; winter may raise drought concerns

Palm Beach International Airport had the fourth warmest November on record, according to the official November analysis published today by the National Weather Service in Miami. The average high was 83 and the average low was 70.

Miami also had the fourth warmest November on record while Fort Lauderdale had slightly below average temperatures for the month. Naples had the 11th warmest November on record.

Rainfall amounts varied widely throughout South Florida. With just 2.78 inches of rain for the month, PBIA had its third-driest November on the books, with records going all the way back to 1888. Hialeah, in Miami-Dade County, had its third wettest November with 8.55 inches of rain. Fort Lauderdale had its fourth wettest November (10.92), a significant mark since records at the airport there go back to 1912.

Miami International had its 15th wettest with 5.73 inches. Records at that location began in 1911.

Forecasters said the chances are increasing for a drier than normal winter in South Florida, at least through February. “A drier than normal winter could lead to developing drought conditions early in 2014 across parts of south Florida, especially in areas which haven’t received much rain since September,” meteorologists said in their report.

“The other potential threat is for freezing temperatures, particularly in the sensitive agricultural areas around Lake Okeechobee and interior sections of southern Florida. Regardless of the overall temperature outlook, most winters have at least one or two light to moderate freezes ….”

The latest analysis from the U.S. Drought Monitor shows pre-drought conditions (Abnormally Dry) in South-Central Florida, along the East-Central Coast and in the northeastern corner of the state around Jacksonville. The seasonal drought forecast through Feb. 28, released Nov. 21, projects drought development likely in most of Florida — including Palm Beach — with the exception of parts of West-Central Florida, Northwest Florida and parts of the panhandle.

It can’t hurt that rainfall totals in and around Palm Beach started December out with a bang — with a one-day record 2.70 inches falling at the airport on Sunday and another 0.31 falling on Monday. That total of 3.01 inches is 89 percent of the total we normally receive for the entire month, with 28 days left to go.

Temperatures, though, have remained stubbornly cool in the mornings since Thanksgiving, when the low on the island and at the airport was 47 degrees. Monday’s low at the airport was 61 degrees, and this morning the low was 64 at the airport, 62 degrees on the island.

Forecasters insist warmer days are coming. The expected low through Sunday morning is 70, with highs near 80. Mostly sunny skies are expected.

Temperatures in South Florida are predicted to be well above average through the middle of the month. But if you have travel plans take note: The entire country could be in the grip of unusually cool to cold temperatures through Dec. 16, with the only exception being the Florida peninsula and Southwest Georgia.

The latest AccuWeather forecast for Christmas Day is sunshine with a high of 77 and a low of 64. The forecast for New Year’s Eve us a chilly high of 69 degrees and a low of 54.

About the Author

John Nelander is a freelance writer, book editor and publisher in West Palm Beach. Weather Matters features news and observations about the weather with a focus on what's happening in South Florida. The blog also looks at the latest studies on climate change as well as what's happening in the weather forecasting biz. His website is www.pbeditorialservices.com.