Is New Orleans’ looming sale part of David Stern’s contraction plans?

The NBA’s impending purchase of the New Orleans Hornets could trigger some moves that would shake the underpinnings of the NBA.

New Orleans owner George Shinn apparently no longer wants to own the team. And the lack of a buyer likely will lead the league to taking control of the franchise, perhaps as soon as the end of the week.

And while NBA commisioner David Stern remains committed to keeping the franchise in post-Katrina New Orleans, the harsh realities of modern sports economics might make that impossible to pull off. The New Orleans area has dropped in population since Katrina and the battle for sponsorship dollars would be difficult for the Hornets against the NFL’s New Orleans Saints coming off a Super Bowl.

The Hornets have been on shaky financial ground even before the hurricane. Fan interest has always been a question. New Orleans ranks 27th in the league in average attendance. And the team has an out clause in its contract with the New Orleans Arena and the state of Louisiana that would enable it to move if certain attendance conditions aren’t met.

The New Orleans Times-Picayune reports that the Hornets can opt out of their current lease agreement with the state of Louisiana that runs through 2014 if they average less than 14,213 fans during a 13-game stretch of home dates between Dec. 1 and Jan. 17. They have struggled to make that benchmark with crowds of 10,866 (Wednesday against Charlotte) and 14,020 (Friday against New York) since then. Their current average for the two games is 12,443.

The stability was expected to improve when minority owner Gary Chouest bought the team from Shinn. But Chouest has since backed out and Shinn says he can’t afford to continue as the team’s owner.

League ownership of a franchise isn’t unprecedented as Major League Baseball owned the Montreal/Washington franchise in the National League from 2002 until the team was purchased by the Lerner Investments Group, led by billionaire real-estate developer Ted Lerner.

The Hornets appeared to be on their way to financial stability when a deal was announced in early May that minority owner Chouest was buying the team from Shinn. Chouest has since backed out and with Shinn saying he can’t afford to continue as owner, the NBA has made plans to step in.

If the Horents can’t make it in New Orleans, several potential expansion locations exist. The only contender with an NBA-ready arena is in Kansas City, where the Sprint Center is one of the nation’s top new basketball arenas. The NBA didn’t work there in the 1980s, and there’s no indication it could thrive today with a thriving football franchise, the Kansas City Royals and a strong interest in college basketball already in place.

Other locations where the Hornets could bounce would be back to Seattle or Vancouver. Both don’t have arenas ready, but the relocation to Seattle would resuscitate that city’s strong interest that was snuffed out when the Supersonics moved to Oklahoma City last season. Imagine the excitement if the Supersonics returned to Seattle in a new building.

Moving the franchise from New Orleans to Seattle would have a ripple effect that could affect the Spurs. Moving a transplanted New Orleans into the Northwest Division would free the move of the Oklahoma City franchise to the Southwest. It would also create perhaps the NBA’s most powerful division in the Southwest with San Antonio, Dallas, Oklahoma City, Houston and Memphis. San Antonio fans would have to face the continual threat of watching Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook mature for the Thunder in the same division.

But perhaps the scariest word that might loom in the league’s acquisition of the New Orleans franchise would be the possibility of the contraction of a franchise. Stern has hinted that contraction is a real threat during his posturing for a new labor contract. The contraction of a franchise would be an unprecedented move for a major sports league in the modern era, but if the economics of the league are as flawed as Stern claims we might see something that drastic. Stern has talked about shedding $750 million to $800 million in player costs.

And if contraction came along, the Hornets would have several key players that would be attracted for the rest of the league. Chris Paul’s contract is coming up, but imagine the interest in a lottery draft where the major prize would be the New Orleans point guard.

The Spurs would have too good of a record to attract a top draft pick. But imagine if they could put together a package of picks or players for a shot at a player like Trevor Ariza. That could be their opportunity to find the defensive stopper and outside shooter they’ve been looking for since Bruce Bowen was traded.

Here’s my guess of how the New Orleans players would be ranked if there was a draft for their services.

1 – G Chris Paul – And there’s nobody else even remotely close.

2 – C Emeka Okafor – Might be picked higher than West because of his position.

3 – F David West – One of the league’s smoothest power forwards

4 – F Trevor Ariza – Provides defense and perimeter shooting.

5- G Jarrett Jack – Could flourish starting as a point guard somewhere.

It will be interesting to see how Stern handles the ticklish sale of the New Orleans franchise and if he’s able to keep the franchise intact during these challenging economic times. Accomplishing that feat might be one of Stern’s enduring legacies to the league — if he can pull it off.