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Robots, the economy, and jobs

Many industries now use robots to do a great deal of monotonous, repetitive work. Since robots don't require health care, don't take sick leave, and don't clock in and out, they do the job much more cheaply than human beings do. As a result, many things we like to buy have come down in price.

That's good for the economy, right? Things are cheaper, which means we can buy other things with what we saved, which means more demand.

But what of the workers losing their jobs? The mantra has always been that improvements in technology that increase productivity end up creating more jobs, but is that true any longer?

"Thirty-one* states allow all qualified citizens to carry concealed weapons. In those states, homosexuals should embark on organized efforts to become comfortable with guns, learn to use them safely and carry them. They should set up Pink Pistols task forces, sponsor shooting courses and help homosexuals get licensed to carry. And they should do it in a way that gets as much publicity as possible. "

I'd say this is the same as the cars replacing horses. Yes, some professions become obsolete but new ones develop around the new technology. At our current level human beings can't be replaced, and if we actually reach a level where everything can be done by machines, we'll have achieved post-scarcity anyway.

That we are capable only of being what we are, remains our unforgivable sin.
- Gene Wolfe

Re: Robots, the economy, and jobs

Originally Posted by Rolyo85

I'd say this is the same as the cars replacing horses. Yes, some professions become obsolete but new ones develop around the new technology. At our current level human beings can't be replaced, and if we actually reach a level where everything can be done by machines, we'll have achieved post-scarcity anyway.

But it isn't like cars replacing horses -- it would be more like horses replacing litter bearers. But it's beyond that, because previously technological improvements still required a human brain to run them -- for example, working on my deck I could be using a hand saw, or a new chop saw with a laser guide so it's very hard to even make a mistake, and I can cut eight boards with precision in the time I could have cut one much less precisely. Previously, technological changes have been about enabling a human being to do more of the same, but this is taking the human being out of the equation.

And when you get to the robots that can learn, it does so even more. They showed robots that a human can teach, but work is being done with robots that don't even need a human teacher -- they can be told, "Go get the block", and the robot will work out its own way to get the block, and the more blocks it gets in more situations, the better it will become at getting blocks... or anything else.

I look at this and recall an article from last year (which I linked to on JUB somewhere), talking about how so many countries complained about losing jobs to China and similar places, but at the same time China was worried about the fact that the number of jobs was decreasing -- in other words, even as we were losing jobs to them, the number of jobs they had for their people was dropping, and that meant that the total number of jobs available (mostly in manufacturing) was dropping worldwide. And now it's not just manufacturing; a guy who works for a local lawn care outfit mentioned the other day that their business is dropping because people are getting robot lawn mowers -- and as the video showed, warehouse jobs are disappearing (to soon be followed by dock and shipping jobs).

We're facing a phase change in our economic situation, where more and more is done by robots because that benefits the cost of production, yet the number of people unable to buy any of that production will keep increasing because the jobs are taken by robots.

"Thirty-one* states allow all qualified citizens to carry concealed weapons. In those states, homosexuals should embark on organized efforts to become comfortable with guns, learn to use them safely and carry them. They should set up Pink Pistols task forces, sponsor shooting courses and help homosexuals get licensed to carry. And they should do it in a way that gets as much publicity as possible. "

Re: Robots, the economy, and jobs

I think it's premature to worry about robots right now. Our Western privilege precludes us from realizing that our economy is supported by slave labor right now. Poor workers have no value, no humanity to the corporations. When one gets sick or dies in an accident, he or she is replaced instantly. Right now these slaves are cheaper than robots, for the moment.

But it is a challenging puzzle. Someday in the distant centuries we very well may face this problem, provided we still have a planet. If that time comes, though, my prediction is that human beings will be composed of some sort of brain or artificial receptor and a television screen/computer monitor and nothing more. The relentless expanse of hyperreality is a far greater threat to us in my view. We live to consume and spend money, to be forever distracted.

Re: Robots, the economy, and jobs

Originally Posted by Kulindahr

We're facing a phase change in our economic situation, where more and more is done by robots because that benefits the cost of production, yet the number of people unable to buy any of that production will keep increasing because the jobs are taken by robots.

It is tempting to speculate that we may be approaching a manifestation of economic singularity, in which the traditional labour market will cease to exist. History informs us that the labour market will evolve, and adapt, remains the more persuasive body of evidence.

The emergence of the Industrial Revolution also postulated many similar questions despite, which the human race has continued to benefit from new technologies not only in reducing the costs of production also, increasing precision enabling us to fly around the globe in hours whereas, one hundred years ago such an enterprise took weeks, or months by ship.

Let's not neglect historical evidence as irrelevant, for otherwise we are left with a vacuum into which we can postulate any number of theories, representing our nightmares that human life will live in slavery at the mercy of artificial intelligence....Spartacus, where are you?

Forecasting the future has a habit of presenting us with a list of Utopian, and Dystopian theories calculated to invite us to debate the inevitable that human life will continue to benefit from the invention of new technologies with Ray Bradbury's sci fi theories entertaining us, and inviting us to join a fascinating debate..

Re: Robots, the economy, and jobs

This is a most interesting topic. The use of robotics is increasing rapidly and displacing various sectors of the labour market.
It's one example of capital biased technological change with distributional consequences: shifting the share of income away from workers to the owners of capital.

Re: Robots, the economy, and jobs

Originally Posted by EastMed

This is a most interesting topic. The use of robotics is increasing rapidly and displacing various sectors of the labour market.
It's one example of capital biased technological change with distributional consequences: shifting the share of income away from workers to the owners of capital.

This has been happening since the Luddite riots reacting to the invention and, growth of machinery replacing labour at the beginning of the Industrial Revolution despite, which society has adapted, and is evolving to ensure that human beings continue to participate in the labour market.....the obituary of human participation in the labour market is premature.

Re: Robots, the economy, and jobs

Computers as well are eliminating jobs. It is routine to buy your airplane ticket, get you boarding pass and shoe up at the gate without taking to airline personnel. And for most companies, customer service is a recording machibe with a series of numbers to punch. Blame the Democrats for part of it. By imposing more and more burdens on employers, they provide a compelling motive to eliminate jobs.

Re: Robots, the economy, and jobs

Originally Posted by Benvolio

Computers as well are eliminating jobs. It is routine to buy your airplane ticket, get you boarding pass and shoe up at the gate without taking to airline personnel. And for most companies, customer service is a recording machibe with a series of numbers to punch. Blame the Democrats for part of it. By imposing more and more burdens on employers, they provide a compelling motive to eliminate jobs.

You mean for outsourcing all those jobs to China, Indonesia, Vietnam, India etc. where sweat shops, near slave conditions ensures higher profits for American corporations such as Apple Inc.- and that is the result of Democrat politicians insisting that such conditions should not be suffered by American workers?

Re: Robots, the economy, and jobs

Originally Posted by kallipolis

You mean for outsourcing all those jobs to China, Indonesia, Vietnam, India etc. where sweat shops, near slave conditions ensures higher profits for American corporations such as Apple Inc.- and that is the result of Democrat politicians insisting that such conditions should not be suffered by American workers?

Of course not. Democrats have enacted an entire panoply of burdens on employers, which I have listed before. Obama care requiring employers to pay for health insurance on employees at exaggerated premiums--including adult children to age 25--is only the latest. Many companies are laying off workers to avoid the crush.
Here is one of the nation's leading hospitals, Cleveland Clinic, planning lay offs because of Obama care.http://www.wkyc.com/news/article/314...ost-reductionsHere is Vanderbilt University hospital laying off workers.http://www.tennessean.com/article/20...nclick_check=1
The employers should not be regarded as the enemy. The more burdens you impose, the more workers lose their jobs. Robots a way to avoid the burdens.

Re: Robots, the economy, and jobs

Originally Posted by Benvolio

Of course not. Democrats have enacted an entire panoply of burdens on employers, which I have listed before. Obama care requiring employers to pay for health insurance on employees at exaggerated premiums--including adult children to age 25--is only the latest. Many companies are laying off workers to avoid the crush.
Here is one of the nation's leading hospitals, Cleveland Clinic, planning lay offs because of Obama care.http://www.wkyc.com/news/article/314...ost-reductionsHere is Vanderbilt University hospital laying off workers.http://www.tennessean.com/article/20...nclick_check=1
The employers should not be regarded as the enemy. The more burdens you impose, the more workers lose their jobs. Robots a way to avoid the burdens.

No one here is suggesting that employers are the enemy...that is your proposal...

Health coverage for employees is not a luxury...rather, a human right....with Apple Inc. profits evidence that it can afford to pay health cover for its employees were it to manufacture its products in the United States.

Re: Robots, the economy, and jobs

Originally Posted by Luciant

I think it's premature to worry about robots right now. Our Western privilege precludes us from realizing that our economy is supported by slave labor right now. Poor workers have no value, no humanity to the corporations. When one gets sick or dies in an accident, he or she is replaced instantly. Right now these slaves are cheaper than robots, for the moment.

But it is a challenging puzzle. Someday in the distant centuries we very well may face this problem, provided we still have a planet. If that time comes, though, my prediction is that human beings will be composed of some sort of brain or artificial receptor and a television screen/computer monitor and nothing more. The relentless expanse of hyperreality is a far greater threat to us in my view. We live to consume and spend money, to be forever distracted.

Did you watch the piece? An industrial robot gives you labor at about the same as the "minimum wage" in China. And the robot does it with a zero error rate and no personnel issues.

"Thirty-one* states allow all qualified citizens to carry concealed weapons. In those states, homosexuals should embark on organized efforts to become comfortable with guns, learn to use them safely and carry them. They should set up Pink Pistols task forces, sponsor shooting courses and help homosexuals get licensed to carry. And they should do it in a way that gets as much publicity as possible. "

Re: Robots, the economy, and jobs

Originally Posted by kallipolis

It is tempting to speculate that we may be approaching a manifestation of economic singularity, in which the traditional labour market will cease to exist. History informs us that the labour market will evolve, and adapt, remains the more persuasive body of evidence.

The emergence of the Industrial Revolution also postulated many similar questions despite, which the human race has continued to benefit from new technologies not only in reducing the costs of production also, increasing precision enabling us to fly around the globe in hours whereas, one hundred years ago such an enterprise took weeks, or months by ship.

Let's not neglect historical evidence as irrelevant, for otherwise we are left with a vacuum into which we can postulate any number of theories, representing our nightmares that human life will live in slavery at the mercy of artificial intelligence....Spartacus, where are you?

Forecasting the future has a habit of presenting us with a list of Utopian, and Dystopian theories calculated to invite us to debate the inevitable that human life will continue to benefit from the invention of new technologies with Ray Bradbury's sci fi theories entertaining us, and inviting us to join a fascinating debate..

The Industrial Revolution experience is irrelevant, because those machines didn't think for themselves. They still required human operators, but these don't -- more and more, they barely require human supervisors. We're on the edge of a situation where the only human involved in a transaction of purchasing a new washing machine will be the customer: a computer will take the order, robots will build the machine, robots will pack and load the machine, a robot truck will deliver it and a robot unload and install it. Even once installed, a robot will pick up the dirty laundry, wash it, and put it away for the human to use.

And the same will be true for every aspect of life. Manual labor will become a thing of the past.

"Thirty-one* states allow all qualified citizens to carry concealed weapons. In those states, homosexuals should embark on organized efforts to become comfortable with guns, learn to use them safely and carry them. They should set up Pink Pistols task forces, sponsor shooting courses and help homosexuals get licensed to carry. And they should do it in a way that gets as much publicity as possible. "

Re: Robots, the economy, and jobs

Originally Posted by Kulindahr

The Industrial Revolution experience is irrelevant, because those machines didn't think for themselves. They still required human operators, but these don't -- more and more, they barely require human supervisors. We're on the edge of a situation where the only human involved in a transaction of purchasing a new washing machine will be the customer: a computer will take the order, robots will build the machine, robots will pack and load the machine, a robot truck will deliver it and a robot unload and install it. Even once installed, a robot will pick up the dirty laundry, wash it, and put it away for the human to use.

And the same will be true for every aspect of life. Manual labor will become a thing of the past.

Kulindahr since I have a number of friends in the medical field and a few of them actually do auxiliary work around robotic surgery, I can assure you these machines do NOT think for themselves, and are extremely far off from the point where anyone involved would countenance allowing them to perform unsupervised and without human hands directing and controlling them. Right now we're more or less talking about robotic arms that may have some degree of automated functions but are still told where to go and what to do and where to move by a human operator and are in many cases simply performing the tasks that would be difficult with human hands because of their size-- such as child surgeries or intravenous work. You could actually argue in some cases it's creating more jobs and more work because it's enabling surgeries on things that would have been inoperable 30 years ago.

We're very much not just around the corner from a patient going into a room and an automaton working on them without oversight like the medical bed from Prometheus. I also think that out of everywhere software technology has gone, one of its weakest areas of improvement has been AI, because it is so complex and difficult to improve. Ever talked to Siri on an i-phone? Trying to imagine her or even her much brighter cousin being able to make anticipatory decisions that would remotely resemble competence is pretty laughable today still.

I agree that in production where you can just set up an assembly line where one robotic arm or piston does the same action over and over on a line of products is a different story, but AI is not required nor on the fly decisionmaking or adaptation, and the transition to this kind of automation in production is decades old at this point.

The long story short would be, we're an extremely long way off-- decades at minimum, but I think considerably longer-- from software that anyone would trust to do something like automated medical treatment on anyone. 99-100% of all AI out there is still just a series of if this then that algorithms with no capacity to produce the same results as human analysis or judgment.

Re: Robots, the economy, and jobs

Its true technology is taking out jobs and nothing is replacing what its taking. The electric meter reader, a decent job with benefits are gone here. Replaced by auto read meters taking hundreds of middle class utility jobs with it. I have a decal on my windshield and the toll collectors, a decent state job at one point with benefits they are gone or replaced with cheap contractors where still needed.
A local plant is totally robotic and the whole side of its building glass so you can drive by and see it assembling bulk junk mail 24 hrs a day. I once had a couple friends who worked there, the place had a work force of nearly 150. The human floor staff now is less than 20.
Where I work is totally automated and our staff is down from 7 to 5, with only 2 on call at night. Its a large petroleum depot and operates 24/7/365 loading trucks and shipping bulk product through pipelines to major contracts. Only if rail or a ship or barge is due in are any employees needed at night. Used to be manned by someone 24 hrs a day.
Railroad crews used to be 3 to 5, but then the caboose is gone now a road train is a crew of 2 and not as many locomotives are needed to be built because the new locomotives are more advanced and higher hp ,so there go more jobs from building to maintaining a fleet.
Freight on the rail is all container , the boxcar is dead. There are less jobs in handling the freight from port to consignee.
Ships are massive and needing less crews and built to last longer needing less repair. The pipeline has taken many trucking transport and rail freight with it jobs in the industry along with allied jobs such as salesmen who sell fleet trucks, mechanics, and drivers.
Mining is incredible. Take the mountain off with huge machinery and haul it in a single truck with tires 4 stories high.
Agriculture is hardly immune. Citrus trees are shaped in a square form. A tractor with a large square basket lowers on the tree and shakes the fruit into the container then drops and gets another.

Think of how technology has wiped out CDs (music), DVDs, and all printed material replaced by files where no factories , manufacturing, transportation, storage is needed just a server to hold the files. Massive amounts of jobs are gone and the profit is cream to the industry because the price is the same just no warehouse full of a dud movie to pay for.

These are all examples of blue collar/white collar Industry jobs and the allied jobs that paid decent wages and benefits overall and they are going going gone. That's okay everyone can work part time at the Burger Hut or in low wage retail sector and save a decent retirement. There are millions of people that need jobs and many couldn't or wouldn't ever be destined for a college or upper management material however they are good people that should be able to have a decent living wage.

But of course Benvolio blames the Democrats or "liberals". Never once does this person blame or seem to realize its corporate profits not the "liberals" that are the driving force. He is a very simplistic, I wouldn't want to have a talk with him over the the difference of a cold core Upper Level Low and a warm core tropical low pressure system.

Re: Robots, the economy, and jobs

Originally Posted by Kulindahr

The Industrial Revolution experience is irrelevant, because those machines didn't think for themselves.
.

The Industrial Revolution is relevant to this discussion for it represented an enormous leap from a society totally agriculturally based to one that manufactured products using machines, with the resulting Luddite riots leading to the destruction of machinery.

Re: Robots, the economy, and jobs

Originally Posted by kallipolis

So called experts have been telling we peasants that for years....since the start of the Industrial Revolution.

Yet the fact remains that in places like the US, manual labor is far far far less common than it was in the 1700's and it takes far less man hours to complete tasks that were once labor intensive. This is fact, maybe not so much in Greece, but here even things like agri-business is moving to large corporate models long on mechanization and short as possible on employees.

Pseudo- skilled killed labor - like factory work building things like cars and micro-chips requires a modicum of training that ditch digging doesn't, but that market is also shrinking. What "so called" experts have been telling you is indeed happening. Sooner or later it will reach poorer countries with tech sufficiently advanced (there isn't even a need for sci-fi AIs, repetitive tasks require no innovation) that it will price even cheap labor out of the market. What do the masses do then.

It's not a matter of if, it's a matter of when, simply because it is more profitable and convenient to employ 5 techs and a factory full of non union non complaining machines, than two thousand Chinese doing it all by hand.

Re: Robots, the economy, and jobs

Originally Posted by Kulindahr

The Industrial Revolution experience is irrelevant, because those machines didn't think for themselves. They still required human operators, but these don't -- more and more, they barely require human supervisors. We're on the edge of a situation where the only human involved in a transaction of purchasing a new washing machine will be the customer: a computer will take the order, robots will build the machine, robots will pack and load the machine, a robot truck will deliver it and a robot unload and install it. Even once installed, a robot will pick up the dirty laundry, wash it, and put it away for the human to use.

And the same will be true for every aspect of life. Manual labor will become a thing of the past.

Add a highly abundant energy supply (nuclear combined with wind and solar?) and you get close to the makings for the utopias envisioned in libertarian, socialist dreams (Star Trek, Voyage from Yesteryear?) but its the transition to that state that is the killer.

“You can’t con people, at least not for long. You can create excitement, you can do wonderful promotion and get all kinds of press, and you can throw in a little hyperbole. But if you don’t deliver the goods, people will catch on.”

Re: Robots, the economy, and jobs

The Industrial Revolution isn't relevant because these machines can think, and those couldn't. Those machines merely shifted the labor done by humans from one set of tasks to another; these eliminate the need for the human at all.

While they may not think for themselves enough to work solo in the medical field, they do in others, and are becoming more versatile all the time. When flying robots can be given a set of blueprints and told to build what's sown, and all by themselves identify the proper pieces to use and set aside the ones that don't match, we aren't far from a point when a myriad of human jobs disappear. Just as examples, things I have done as a handyman that could soon be done by robots include:

cleaning gutters

removing moss from roofs and patios

trimming hedges

topping trees

building a deck

roofing a shed

All housing construction could be done by robots if someone decided to apply them that way. Highways could be built by robots, along with railroads, monorails, canals, sewers, and so on. These are all simple tasks (for robots) that still employ humans merely because no one has turned robots that direction.

And as robots improve, and especially as learning software gets better, there will be no form of manual labor where it won't be cheaper and safer and more efficient to have robots do it. Humans won't even be needed to take care of the robots -- other robots will do that.

"Thirty-one* states allow all qualified citizens to carry concealed weapons. In those states, homosexuals should embark on organized efforts to become comfortable with guns, learn to use them safely and carry them. They should set up Pink Pistols task forces, sponsor shooting courses and help homosexuals get licensed to carry. And they should do it in a way that gets as much publicity as possible. "

Re: Robots, the economy, and jobs

And as robots improve, and especially as learning software gets better, there will be no form of manual labor where it won't be cheaper and safer and more efficient to have robots do it.

I’m not sure I like that vision. One of the most magical experiences in my life was visiting The Cathedral of Saint John the Divine in New York City. I think one of the things that makes the structure magnificent is the fact that it’s construction is based primarily upon the realization of a long culmination of individual human efforts. I don’t think robots could replicate something like that.

Re: Robots, the economy, and jobs

Originally Posted by opinterph

I’m not sure I like that vision. One of the most magical experiences in my life was visiting The Cathedral of Saint John the Divine in New York City. I think one of the things that makes the structure magnificent is the fact that it’s construction is based primarily upon the realization of a long culmination of individual human efforts. I don’t think robots could replicate something like that.

That, as one of the guys in the interview said, is where humans will still have a "job": creativity.

"Thirty-one* states allow all qualified citizens to carry concealed weapons. In those states, homosexuals should embark on organized efforts to become comfortable with guns, learn to use them safely and carry them. They should set up Pink Pistols task forces, sponsor shooting courses and help homosexuals get licensed to carry. And they should do it in a way that gets as much publicity as possible. "

Re: Robots, the economy, and jobs

Originally Posted by opinterph

I’m not sure I like that vision. One of the most magical experiences in my life was visiting The Cathedral of Saint John the Divine in New York City. I think one of the things that makes the structure magnificent is the fact that it’s construction is based primarily upon the realization of a long culmination of individual human efforts. I don’t think robots could replicate something like that.

Yes they could, with sufficiently advanced tech it's actually easier to realize the visions in your head without the cost prohibitive infrastructure needed to produce it. See 3D printing (Google it) for the next wave in tech revolution.

Re: Robots, the economy, and jobs

Originally Posted by TX-Beau

Yes they could, with sufficiently advanced tech it's actually easier to realize the visions in your head without the cost prohibitive infrastructure needed to produce it. See 3D printing (Google it) for the next wave in tech revolution.

And when robots can repair themselves by printing out the part on a 3D printer....

"Thirty-one* states allow all qualified citizens to carry concealed weapons. In those states, homosexuals should embark on organized efforts to become comfortable with guns, learn to use them safely and carry them. They should set up Pink Pistols task forces, sponsor shooting courses and help homosexuals get licensed to carry. And they should do it in a way that gets as much publicity as possible. "

Re: Robots, the economy, and jobs

Originally Posted by TX-Beau

Yes they could, with sufficiently advanced tech it's actually easier to realize the visions in your head without the cost prohibitive infrastructure needed to produce it. See 3D printing (Google it) for the next wave in tech revolution.

Re: Robots, the economy, and jobs

I also don't think that digital processes (which for the moment are fundamentally different from how your brain functions) are anywhere close to creativity. That is sci-fi AI stuff we simply have no idea how to reproduce yet.

Re: Robots, the economy, and jobs

Originally Posted by opinterph

That would require a really, really BIG printer.

Not if you broke it down into component parts it's composed of. Cathedrals (even actual Gothic ones) are built of relatively small stones shaped to order - it would be much harder to get a printer large enough to produce something like the Roman Baths of Caracalla which is actually a cast in place concrete structure and was essentially one big rock. Things like that and modern concrete structures are actually far far far more technically sophisticated than your cathedral whose construction technique is essentially no more sophisticated than the pyramids.

Re: Robots, the economy, and jobs

Originally Posted by TX-Beau

I also don't think that digital processes (which for the moment are fundamentally different from how your brain functions) are anywhere close to creativity. That is sci-fi AI stuff we simply have no idea how to reproduce yet.

Agreed. I think when we do not even fully understand how the brain functions it's safe to say that getting software to sufficiently reproduce the process is pretty far off.

Re: Robots, the economy, and jobs

Oh man Kuli they already have a printer that can reproduce itself. It's part of their business model.

I know. But that has nothing to do with my point.

Though to relate the two -- the printer can "reproduce itself" only with the action of a human. My reference was to robots realizing they need a part, printing it out, and repairing themselves.

"Thirty-one* states allow all qualified citizens to carry concealed weapons. In those states, homosexuals should embark on organized efforts to become comfortable with guns, learn to use them safely and carry them. They should set up Pink Pistols task forces, sponsor shooting courses and help homosexuals get licensed to carry. And they should do it in a way that gets as much publicity as possible. "

Re: Robots, the economy, and jobs

Because he posted in another thread and I have to go to bed and don't want to rejoin the fray......

Imagine Rolyo - being able to scan a Stradivarius and reproduce it endlessly - sure some snotty elitists might object, but the gain?

It might not be the energy to matter creation of Star Trek, but it's effectively the same.

Not sure we're anywhere close to that. The sound of a Strad depends greatly on the wood grain and its quality, and those can't be printed.

"Thirty-one* states allow all qualified citizens to carry concealed weapons. In those states, homosexuals should embark on organized efforts to become comfortable with guns, learn to use them safely and carry them. They should set up Pink Pistols task forces, sponsor shooting courses and help homosexuals get licensed to carry. And they should do it in a way that gets as much publicity as possible. "