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Too many executives think risk management is strictly for technical specialists. In Risk Intelligence: Learning to Manage What We Don't Know, David Apgar challenges this misconception. The author explains how to raise the quality of your risk analysis, thus enhancing your "risk IQ," by applying four simple rules: First, recognize which risks are learnable and reduce their uncertainty by discovering more about them. Second, identify risks you can learn about the fastest. The higher your learning speed, the more a project is worth pursuing. Third, take on risky projects one at a time--learning about the risks underlying each before moving to the next. Fourth, build networks of business partners, suppliers, and customers who can collectively manage new ventures' risks by playing distinct roles. The book provides two tools for improving your risk IQ--the Risk Intelligence Audit and the Risk Scorecard--and concludes with a 10-step action plan for systematically raising your managerial and organizational risk IQ. Your reward? Smarter business decisions over time.

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One of the primary myths about risk is that there's no pattern to how risks evolve. The author argues, however, that nonrandom, or learnable risks, have natural life cycles, which has a big impact on how we should select risky projects and activities. This chapter reveals where your major risks are in their life cycles. The result is a picture of your risk pipeline that highlights where you have taken on too many risks that require intensive learning and where you may be developing too few risk skills to stay competitive. The risk strategy audits provide a practical way to implement one of the rules of risk intelligence: Sequence risky projects in a "learning pipeline." This chapter is excerpted from "Risk Intelligence: Learning to Manage What We Don't Know."

learning objective:

To argue that portfolios are inadequate tools for managing nonrandom learnable risks and to present the risk pipeline as an alternative framework.

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It's a popular myth that business partners get the same results no matter how they allocate risk. But how should your business and personal networks affect the way you think about risk? Part of the solution is to recognize which learnable risks you are likely to understand and track better over time than others can. This chapter proposes a tool, the risk-role matrix, for identifying the ideal role you should play in your risk networks for each of your major risks. Differences in business and personal networks for absorbing certain risks can create lasting advantages and allow you to execute one of the rules of risk intelligence: Keep networks of partners to manage all risks. This chapter is excerpted from "Risk Intelligence: Learning to Manage What We Don't Know."

learning objective:

To demonstrate how networks can help you not only assess risks, but also manage and absorb them in more effective ways.

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One of the primary myths about risk? All risks are random. It turns out that there are two kinds of risks: random and nonrandom risks. This chapter makes the case that if we want to manage the risks underlying most parts of a modern business or its growth opportunities, we must separate what the author calls learnable risks (of the nonrandom variety) from the truly random ones. This, in fact is the first rule of risk intelligence: Recognize which risks are learnable. These can be made less uncertain if we have the time and resources to learn more about them. This chapter is excerpted from "Risk Intelligence: Learning to Manage What We Don't Know."

learning objective:

To explain why the distinction between random and nonrandom, learnable risks matters for understanding when our relative risk assessment skills may affect results.

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It's a great myth about risk-taking that since risks average out, they rarely create persistent winners and losers. In fact, as the author points out, nonrandom, or learnable risks do create winners and losers, which means risk is no excuse. No one can guarantee risky results, but wise choices could lead us to risks we are good at evaluating, and unwise choices could lead us to risks we are bad at evaluating. So we must choose well. This chapter provides a simple method for assessing whether you are more likely to win or lose with the various learnable risks of your potential projects. This chapter is excerpted from "Risk Intelligence: Learning to Manage What We Don't Know."

learning objective:

To propose a measure of the ability to learn about nonrandom risk in order to implement one of the rules of risk intelligence: identify risks you can learn about fastest.

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Our risk intelligence directly affects the success of our plans and strategies. But the fit or gaps between our goals and risk skills is also a product of those plans and strategies. It's a major consequence of what we decide to do with our time and resources, and where and how we try to compete. Risk intelligence is not really an innate talent or intellectual aptitude--it is essentially a core competency that can be developed by individuals, teams, and organizations with ongoing observation, exploration, and learning. This chapter summarizes ten steps to employing risk intelligence in your decision making processes. This chapter is excerpted from "Risk Intelligence: Learning to Manage What We Don't Know."

learning objective:

To suggest that there may be no such thing as innate talent when it comes to dealing with risk and that following certain practices and frameworks will help you achieve greater risk intelligence.

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Our lives are fraught with risk. In the competitive and unforgiving realm of business, companies cannot afford to be too bold or too cautious. So the question becomes, how can our businesses succeed despite the risks that abound in smarter, faster, and more competitive markets? How can we determine when to be cautious and when to be bold? How can we get smarter about evaluating our personal risks? According to the author, gaps between risk learning skills could explain why so few people seem to be beating the odds in the risks they are taking. This chapter outlines a practical way to think about risk learning gaps, exposing the myths about risk and the rules of risk intelligence that explode them. This chapter is excerpted from "Risk Intelligence: Learning to Manage What We Don't Know."

learning objective:

To describe the inadequacies of current approaches to risk management and explain why developing your risk intelligence is the best alternative.

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