Governor opens campaign to pass ballot measures

SPECIAL ELECTION

Matthew Yi, Chronicle Sacramento Bureau

Published 4:00 am, Friday, February 27, 2009

Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger kicked off on Thursday what promises to be a mad dash of a campaign to persuade California voters to approve a slate of ballot measures needed to help fund the state budget he signed less than a week ago to close a $41 billion gap.

The governor has less than three months to make his case for five measures in the May 19 special election. The measures would place limits on future spending, allow the state to borrow against future state lottery sales, change education funding and shift funds approved by voters in the past.

Failure of all the new measures, which require a majority vote, would blow a hole of nearly $6 billion in the budget the governor signed last week. The defeat of the spending-cap measure would end temporary tax increases in two years rather than four, cutting revenue for future state budgets.

Schwarzenegger, speaking at a news conference at a preschool in Sacramento, said he won't even entertain a Plan B if voters reject the measures.

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"I will always talk about how we will win," he said, adding that California voters have stepped up in past times of need. "You have both Democrats and Republicans saying this is the right way to go. People will vote yes on stability for education, health care ... law enforcement and all of those things."

Legislative leaders from both parties, who brokered the budget deal with the governor, joined Schwarzenegger on Thursday in announcing the campaign along with representatives of influential and deep-pocketed business groups such as the California Chamber of Commerce.

"I think once voters understand how badly they were deceived, it won't take a lot to defeat this," said Jon Coupal, president of the Howard Jarvis Taxpayers Association. "We will run a vigorous, successful campaign."

Coupal said he plans to campaign against the spending-cap measure because its approval would extend temporary increases in taxes on consumer sales and personal income.

Representatives of labor unions said Thursday that they are studying the ballot measures and have not decided on whether to support or oppose them.

While it's not unprecedented for California to ask its voters to weigh in on measures to help solve state budget crises, it is rare for the budget to hinge on so many ballot measures.

In 2004, voters approved Proposition 57, a $15 billion economic recovery bond to help close the state's deficit. In 1993, voters approved Proposition 172, which made permanent a temporary half-cent sales tax increase and directed the funds to local governments for public safety programs such as law enforcement.

Political experts say it's difficult to gauge how voters will respond on May 19.

"It'll be a challenge to get the voters needed to pass these measures, and even more of a challenge because of the (dismal) approval ratings of both the governor and the Legislature," said Mark Baldassare, president of the Public Policy Institute of California.

Schwarzenegger's approval rating has dropped to 33 percent - nearly half of what it was in his first term - while the Legislature's approval rating remained at a record-low 21 percent, according to a poll released Wednesday by Baldassare.

The political capital the governor enjoyed in previous years dissipated during the past year's state budget debacle, said Larry Gerston, a political science professor at San Jose State University.

"Special elections are breeds unto themselves," Gerston said. "The turnout can vary dramatically depending upon not only the issues, but the public's motivation at the time. And the public is upset once again and you just don't know how that's going to unfold at the ballot."

In the past, Schwarzenegger had success when he had Democratic legislative leaders on his side, such as in 2006 when voters were asked to approve more than $40 billion in infrastructure bonds, and in 2004 when voters approved an economic-recovery bond and a separate measure to create a rainy day fund for the state.

But Schwarzenegger also enjoyed much higher approval ratings in those years, Baldassare said.

"The question is whether he can get out of Sacramento, change his image and get people to support him," Baldassare said. "He does have the Democratic leadership support, but he doesn't have support of Democratic voters, which he will need."

While the state averted an economic catastrophe last week in passing the budget, "much of that work would be for naught if we don't pass (these) measures," Senate President Pro Tem Darrell Steinberg, D-Sacramento, said Thursday as he stood at the governor's side.

Budget hinges on the ballot box

On May 19, a majority of California voters must approve five ballot measures to fully fund the new state budget.

Prop. 1A: Caps spending by calculating budgets based on revenues from the previous 10 years. Passage allows temporary tax increases (1-cent sales tax, vehicle license fee and personal income tax) to last longer before expiring.

Prop. 1B: Provides extra funds for schools and community colleges starting in 2011 to compensate for cuts in the current budget.

Prop. 1C: Allows the state to borrow $5 billion against future state lottery sales; allows the state to change the lottery system to generate more revenue and use funds for programs other than education.

Prop. 1D: Allows the state to divert $608 million from Proposition 10 (tobacco tax for children's health care) to general-fund costs of children's health care in the fiscal year beginning July 1. The amount drops to $268 million a year from July 1, 2010, to June 30, 2014.

Prop. 1E: Allows the state to divert $230 million a year from Proposition 63 (taxes the wealthy to fund mental health programs) to offset general fund costs of other mental health programs for two years beginning July 1.