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Drought Stricken California Will See Rain, Drier in Mid West

US - California’s devastating four year drought is due to come to a long awaited end, ranchers heard at the Cattle Industry Convention this week.

This is welcome news to the state's beef industry, which has reduced its cow herd by 40 per cent.

Rain is expected this weekend, and further ahead, pressure systems are going to allow moisture in, with Texas and the South West region in general expecting relief by May.

This is according to Cattlefax which says a major change in Pacific Ocean temperature will return systems back to where they were in the mid 1990’s.

Cattlefax weather analyst Dr Art Douglas - California is going to get precipitation over the coming weeks and months.

“Sea temperatures are about to change from the current cycle,” said Dr Art Douglas, long range forecaster for Cattlefax. “The Pacific got cold in 1998 but now we have finally seen this reverse and are back in the climate regime seen in 1976 to 1997.”

His message to the Cattlefax Outlook audience was California will get rain and the Mid West will be cooler and drier.

Cattlemen hope precipitation will end a “ripple effect” which has seen ranches and packing plants shrink or sell-up. A year ago a National Beef Packing Company plant closure devastated a southern California community, cutting 1300 jobs.

However, Dr Douglas remained tentative about the wider implications for temperature, admitting that a “fickle” El Nino system had left the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) “a bit confused”.

US Department of Agriculture charts show 40 per cent of California in “exceptional drought” to start the year after one of the driest Januarys in history.

Last year the state fire department was called out to 1000 more wildfires than the five year average and many major reservoirs are below half capacity, one is at six per cent.

California Rancher Kevin Kester said that, after seeing many neighbours struggle, California’s ranchers are “more than ready” for rain.

* "We’ve had to halve our cow herd over the past three years"

Rancher, Kevin Kester

He operates a commercial cow-calf and stocker ranch in central western California, the area hardest hit by the drought.

“This drought has been devastating for a number of cattle ranchers,” Mr Kester told TheCattleSite.

“We’ve had to halve our own cow herd over the past three years, purely due to drought."

The state's herd reduction has largely been in the form of higher slaughtering rates and relocating cattle out of state to more reliable precipitation, he added.

Pasture deterioration has meant a costly feed bill, said Mr Kester, made worse by competing over forage with the country’s leading dairy herd. Prior to the drought, California produced more than 20 per cent of US milk from its almost 1.8 million strong herd.

Mr Kester’s last alfalfa hay purchase cost $240 per ton delivered. The furthest he has had to look for alfalfa hay has been Idaho, around 1100 miles away.