Echo244 wrote:This is why I'm more suspicious of those who voted username, to lynch the power role first, than I am of those who could have but didn't.

Do you believe that faubiguy is town?

So, Echo, the reason I asked you this question is because of the now bolded part of your quoted sentence. I think you slipped. If you believe faubiguy is scum, this should read, "to lynch town first". The wording you used looks like you know faubiguy and username were both town, that the only difference between them was that username was a power role. Right?

Lynching username - the only town power role - was a golden opportunity for scum, whether or not faubiguy was town. Either they protect scum!faubiguy, or they pass up a chance to mislynch town!faubiguy, but killing the power role, as early as possible, with no chance of them getting any kind of night action, is very much one of scum's objectives. And a lynch is better than a night kill, because the lynch prevented username using his power.

No power roles means less information for town, means muddier waters to hide in.

Killing the rest of us has a slightly lower priority for scum. Not much, true, but a little.

Hence "lynch the power role first" is something scum want to do regardless of whether the alternative is their scumbuddy or another town player. I'm considering both town!faubiguy and scum!faubiguy scenarios when I look at this angle.

And I maintain that the votes on username are where we need to be looking hardest for scum.

Unstoppable force of nature. That means she/her/hers.Has committed an act of treason.

I apologize for not getting back to this last night. I will be free tonight so I will have time to make a nice long post, and I will answer any questions. I’m not ignoring SDK’s question, I just didn’t have time to think about it carefully and point to reasons I think he is scummy or townie.

adnapemit wrote:Again faubiguy is still the most suspicious because unless he is the bulletproof townie he made the wrong move against town winning. He might have really thought username was scum but we lost the only town player with an active ability.

I don’t think faubiguy is the bulletproof townie. If he is, he made the wrong move anyway.

Echo244 wrote:Lynching username - the only town power role - was a golden opportunity for scum, whether or not faubiguy was town.

(So we could be in #1 but with the scum roleblocker having nothing to block, and the bulletproofness not giving us that much info, I don't particularly think it makes a difference, we just have to hunt scum the old fashioned way)

(Like watching the votes)

Unstoppable force of nature. That means she/her/hers.Has committed an act of treason.

Band practice was canceled and I didn’t have as much husband-free time as I thought I would have, so this list is a little disjointed and incomplete. But I should have a lot of time this weekend to to finish my reads and if anyone wants to ask me any questions.

adnapemit – I like all her observations on setup and gameplay. Her analysis of anything having to do with game mechanics is usually solid. And she has been encouraging discussion. On D1 I was suspicious of adnapemit for trying to swing votes away from username and on to his attackers (note that this is before he claimed jailkeeper). With his flip, it appears she may have been justified, but username was acting scummy, and I already made a post on why I believe it benefits scum to keep a scummy-townie in the game. Also note that if scum!adnapemit knew username was telling the truth about being the jailkeeper, it is possible she or her partner is the mafia roleblocker so she knew he wasn’t a threat to mafia and could afford to keep him alive. I don’t agree with many of her player reads in her last post, but just because we don’t agree doesn’t mean I think she’s scummy for it. So I still got my eye on you adnapemit.

Echo244 – Townie read on D1 for asking questions and encouraging discussion. What I don’t like is her defense of username because he’s-playing-like-he-played-in-two-previous-games-and-he-was-town-in-both-those-games (I should mention that she’s not the only one doing this and she’s not even the worst offender). It’s actually a terrible defense, and you’re using it to try to cast suspicion on SDK and me for it.

Echo244 wrote:"Piled on" was perhaps the wrong phrase, it implies a sudden flurry rather than the slower accumulation we had. But you started with a random vote, and bessie stacked up on top - solid votes with reasoning based on objective analysis of username's behaviour, but without deviating when others (Yablo and myself, largely) sounded notes of caution based on his previous behaviour.

I made a late decision not to read the previous newbie games (although I thought about it). My read of username was based entirely on his actions in this game only, and I struggled to try to hold myself to that and not let previous games or anything that was happening in other parts of the forum affect my analysis of him (I don't think we need to discuss this last point further).

faubiguy – Let’s see, light on content, reads are mostly neutral, and his self-defense vote on claimed-jailer-username. The self defense vote is scummy because if faubiguy is vanilla town his job is to protect power town. If he is the bulletproof townie it is scummier because he lynched someone that he had good reason to believe was the jailer. But username was acting scummy so I think this is inconclusive. I find this exchange interesting (I misread it earlier because the quote tags are messed up, I think I have it correct but let me know if I'm wrong).

SDK wrote:In general, faubiguy, how would you expect a scum player to play mafia? Not in this game, but in general. What would you look for in a post to determine if the person posting it is scum or town?

faubiguy wrote:Scum are going to be playing more defensively, trying to avoid getting themself of their partners lynched and to throw town off track. I'd look for suggesting a lot of reasons other players might be scum (and therefore be worth lynching) and trying to avoid giving away too much information themselves. And since they're arguing against the hidden facts, their posts would be more likely to contain information that contradicts or at least fits less well with that is known, and avoiding details that would place suspicion on them more than other details.

SDK wrote:Okay, that's fair enough. Who fits that description?

faubiguy, please respond to SDK’s follow up question.

Opus_723 – Solid townie read D1, hasn’t posted on D2. Skipping for now so I can get through this tonight. I will have something after he posts today.

SDK – I quickly skimmed his posts and agree with most of his content, and moody had a townie read on him. I need more time on SDK and will come back to him tomorrow.

Yablo – I was suspicious of him D1 because he defended username for what I believe were the wrong reasons (refer to my above read of Echo). Hmm, and he’s also trying to cast doubt on on the username voters (again refer to Echo read). Yablo, can I get an answer to this question?

bessie wrote:

Yablo wrote:As for username being unhelpful, he's avoided questions (or overlooked them), and demanded answers to his own questions. That's not helpful behavior, but I don't consider it unhelpful either, really. Unhelpful behavior would be like derailing the conversation or misdirecting it to focus on irrelevant or nit-picky details.

This is an interesting observation. How can you know what is irrelevant until you’ve analyzed it?

And I disagree with your analysis of the current setup.

Yablo wrote:Well, that could have been better. username was the Jailkeeper, so we have either two mafia goons or a mafia roleblocker and a bulletproof townie left. With no town power role, the mafia roleblocker really isn't anything more than another goon, so I'm hoping we got Setup 1 instead of Setup 4. Bulletproof won't be a big advantage, but it's the best we can get. From here on out, I'm looking at this as a straight up 5 vs. 2.

A bulletproof townie would be a substantial advantage to us at this point, because they can’t be roleblocked. It would have been nice to have a jailkeeper, but even if username was alive, he could be roleblocked so if we are in setup #1 he would have been worthless anyway (at least while the roleblocker was alive).

I didn't actually realise I put bessie in almost every pairing of scum I did until she pointed out that she didn't agree with my analysis...I seem to be more suspicious of her than I even realised. The pairing weren't base on who seemed most scum but who would be a likely partner, as it was mostly based on Day 1, I'm not sure it was a useful activity but I still think it's better should post everything I'm thinking in case someone else sees something that might help reveal the scum players.

Echo244 wrote:(Like watching the votes)

I am watching, and you didn't vote. If town is quite willing to lynch one of their own then scum might not feel the need to make an obvious move against town, instead they just let us destroy ourselves.

SDK wrote:

SDK wrote:

Echo244 wrote:This is why I'm more suspicious of those who voted username, to lynch the power role first, than I am of those who could have but didn't.

Do you believe that faubiguy is town?

So, Echo, the reason I asked you this question is because of the now bolded part of your quoted sentence. I think you slipped. If you believe faubiguy is scum, this should read, "to lynch town first". The wording you used looks like you know faubiguy and username were both town, that the only difference between them was that username was a power role. Right?

I'm not so sure that's was a slip. But this:

Echo244 wrote:Lynching username - the only town power role - was a golden opportunity for scum, whether or not faubiguy was town.

I am watching, and you didn't vote. If town is quite willing to lynch one of their own then scum might not feel the need to make an obvious move against town, instead they just let us destroy ourselves.

Avoiding wagons is a thing that scum do, yeah. I didn't really get the impression that Echo was avoiding getting on a wagon though. I should reread that.

adnapemit wrote:I'm not so sure that's was a slip. But this:

Echo244 wrote:Lynching username - the only town power role - was a golden opportunity for scum, whether or not faubiguy was town.

probably was.

You're probably right. Even that's not a slam-dunk kind of slip, but it's a little stronger than the other. Taken together makes them pretty legitimate. Thing is, I think it's pretty unlikely that faubiguy and Echo are scum together, so it's just a question of who to lynch. I think if faubiguy flips town, Echo is almost certainly scum. Where is that guy anyway...

Suzaku, can we get prods on faubiguy and Opus please? Deadline in four days...

Yablo wrote:As for username being unhelpful, he's avoided questions (or overlooked them), and demanded answers to his own questions. That's not helpful behavior, but I don't consider it unhelpful either, really. Unhelpful behavior would be like derailing the conversation or misdirecting it to focus on irrelevant or nit-picky details.

This is an interesting observation. How can you know what is irrelevant until you’ve analyzed it?

Of course, and I apologize. I could have sworn I'd done that already. You can't know what's irrelevant until you've analyzed it, and so I suppose I chose the wrong word. Also, I do agree that nit-picky details can help catch scum. I guess what I meant was that those details can be misleading, and if scum were to see someone being misled by those details, they might encourage that focus.

bessie wrote:And I disagree with your analysis of the current setup.

Yablo wrote:Well, that could have been better. username was the Jailkeeper, so we have either two mafia goons or a mafia roleblocker and a bulletproof townie left. With no town power role, the mafia roleblocker really isn't anything more than another goon, so I'm hoping we got Setup 1 instead of Setup 4. Bulletproof won't be a big advantage, but it's the best we can get. From here on out, I'm looking at this as a straight up 5 vs. 2.

A bulletproof townie would be a substantial advantage to us at this point, because they can’t be roleblocked. It would have been nice to have a jailkeeper, but even if username was alive, he could be roleblocked so if we are in setup #1 he would have been worthless anyway (at least while the roleblocker was alive).

You're certainly free to disagree, and it may be good that you do. You have more experience with this game than I do, so maybe I'm misunderstanding or overlooking something. The way I see it, a bulletproof townie just has a get-out-of-a-night-kill-free card with a single use, right? That's definitely an advantage, but it's useless if the bulletproof townie isn't attacked at night, and if he is, the Mafia know they can kill him the next night.

The more I talk about it, the better it seems, but I still don't really see it as much more than vanilla town with a neat trick.

If you like Call of Cthulhu and modern government conspiracy, check out my Delta Green thread.Please feel free to ask questions or leave comments.

For the record, we're at 7 alive right now with 2 scum. Mislynch plus kill puts us at 3v2, in lylo (lynch or lose). Mislynch with no kill (thanks to the bulletproof) puts us at 4v2, in mylo (mislynch and lose), an only very slightly better position because we have the option of no lynching (whoopdeedoo). What that means is a 9 player setup with 2 scum kinda makes protective roles less powerful because they need to stop two kills in order to buy us another lynch.

Just checking out Echo a bit here... She did pretty much disappear at the end of Day 1 (very active, then suddenly off for two days), and hasn't really come back. Her posts Day 2 are generally very empty in comparison to Day 1, even avoiding naming names when it comes to me and bessie.

Echo244 wrote:Anyway. I'd like to hear from SDK and particularly bessie.

You've heard from us now. Besides the votes on username, any thoughts?

Hey everyone. I'm really sorry about my absence from the game the past few days! I had a houseguest who ended up staying longer than expected due to an emergency, and everything's just been really hectic since Halloween. I hate that I just dropped out like that, but it couldn't really be helped.

Everything is back to normal now though, so I should be able to continue the game as before. I haven't reviewed the thread yet, but I'll do so as soon as I can and check back in.

bessie wrote:I haven’t played a lot of games but an example of one game where we lynched a claimed power town D1 because he was perceived as acting in an anti-town manner is Newbie Game Bird7P . (Disclaimer: this is in no way whatsoever meant to been seen as a comparison between Vytron and username, it is just an example of a similar situation. Vytron always plays in a manner that he believes is the best for his team and I have the utmost respect for him as a player.) And I guess you can argue it was successful. Scum never even made a kill in that game.

OK, I read this. Interesting game. Different from this one, as the lynch of Vytron took out one of the active power roles, leaving a Doctor, whose successful night action plus uncontested claim left scum with pretty much nowhere to hide. We don't have that here. I'd also like to note there's a post in here where bessie defends Vytron based on behaviour in a previous game, so in that context I hope those who defended username D1 aren't judged too harshly. Also, there was a lot more analysis of voting patterns than anyone is doing here. I think we have to learn more from that.

SDK wrote:Just checking out Echo a bit here... She did pretty much disappear at the end of Day 1 (very active, then suddenly off for two days), and hasn't really come back. Her posts Day 2 are generally very empty in comparison to Day 1, even avoiding naming names when it comes to me and bessie.

Echo244 wrote:Anyway. I'd like to hear from SDK and particularly bessie.

You've heard from us now. Besides the votes on username, any thoughts?

Yup. I think you're mafia. Pushed the username lynch D1, didn't back off when others expressed caution, nor when he claimed, you asked for others to contest that claim, and nothing happened. Ignoring his meta and voting on present behaviour is one thing, but when you asked for counterclaims, received none, and didn't shift, that's quite another. D2 you've been lining up faubiguy for the lynch right from the start, and you've not been looking for a scumbuddy, you've been lining me up for D3 lynch "if faubiguy flips town".

This is not the behaviour of a scum hunter. This is lining up a list of townies to lynch. That's why you're pushing faubiguy today while not bothering to look at a possible scumbuddy, while pointing at me for tomorrow with "If faubiguy flips town" laid as a basis for the argument tomorrow.

Yeah, this may read like an advance OMGUS. But I'm uncertain of my ability to convince many of your scumminess, SDK, particularly when you've already been an influential opinion-former, so my best chance to convince everyone is by putting up a you-or-me argument and flipping town when I lose. So obviously, this needs to happen before LYLO.

It's true, scum might be lurking, posting little while town destroy themselves (town!SDK seems remarkably unconcerned by a potential mislynch, in fact he's planning for it in advance). But I don't see that. We've got a strong voice from SDK pushing lynches; thus far, with a town victim only, and lining up all the lynches scum would need between here and victory.

When it comes to potential SDK scumbuddies, I'm mostly looking at bessie for having stacked her vote on username D1. adnapemit as a less likely possibility, some good analysis but also playing spot-the-Echo-scumslips alongside SDK, I think that's either distraction or being distracted.

So I think today needs to come down to being between SDK and me. faubiguy's too easy a target to pick on. I think SDK is scum, if I can't convince enough people to lynch him today, then I need to be out of the way D3 so he doesn't have his pre-stated primary target for LYLO.

Vote: SDK

Unstoppable force of nature. That means she/her/hers.Has committed an act of treason.

Followup post to address SDK's point about me going quiet: I went quiet because I was being undermined with the scumslip accusations, and fully took bessie's point about lynching townies who are getting all the attention, so didn't want my actions to dominate discussion while others either uncontestedly directed the lynches, or stayed silent in the shadows.

I wasn't sure how I could respond to that and change things, especially with my credibility called into question. Heck, it's still questionable. That's why I'm essentially playing to flip; I need my credibility back to voice anything, and following the course SDK has plotted out, I'd have none D3.

So let's play a different game. SDK or me today, and then we (probably meaning, everyone except me, plus the night kill victim) can have some real information to learn from D3 rather than nit-picking.

Unstoppable force of nature. That means she/her/hers.Has committed an act of treason.

SDK wrote:I'm not lining up lynches, I'm calling the game as I see it and pointing things out so people can see it after I'm dead.

Right. But you're quite a strong voice in the thread, analysing people's posts, asking pointy questions, coming up with reasons that they need lynching. So far, you've managed to get username lynched, carrying right on after he claimed Jailkeeper and nobody counterclaimed. The most you had to say about this was "Wow, what a loose cannon" or words to that effect.

Except, you're one of the ones who blasted username away. He was Town. And I don't see anyone else challenging you, not D2 at least.

The thing about town!loose cannons is that scum need to cast some doubt on them. Yeah, if town!you is just misreading things, scum players can lurk in the shadows and watch as towny after towny gets lynched. Right up to the point where town!you actually starts pointing at scum, and suddenly they need to challenge you. Since nobody's particularly challenged you, either the mafia are intensely relaxed about your proposed programme of lynches... or you are the mafia.

Yup, now I'm challenging you on this, and that's exactly what I was expecting mafia to have done if you were town. In a "who would you believe?" contest, I've had more fingers pointed at me so far, so I'd very much expect to lose. That's why I need to say something now, before LYLO, so that I can flip town and restore credibility to what I say before town lose this game ("lose teh game", correctly spelled, seems to be on a wordfilter; some of these are funny, that one's annoying).

Yeah, I'm kind of pinning everything on you being scum. But I've been called out on a couple of alleged scumslips already, by you and others, and you laid the foundations for me having no credibility left on D3 with the "If faubiguy flips town" comment. We're not at LYLO but by that point, I'm target #1 and I'll lose any argument with you, so I have to say something now and get mislynched. You're more certain than anyone else about who you want to lynch (apart from me, now), and it's all from jumping on people and nitpicking reactions, self-defensive voting, or newbie behaviour that doesn't fit into the designated town pattern here. You're not looking at voting patterns, to see who jumped on or stayed on to lynch an uncontested power role claim D1, it's all just... fog.

SDK wrote:You seemed pretty sold on faubiguy as scum. If I'm scum, is he town?

If you're scum, then yes, he's town. You've voted for him and been lining him up for a lynch all day, and you don't bus a scumbuddy like that right from the outset when there are plenty of lurkers to point at, and a couple of alleged scumslips to jump on. Nobody's really challenged this, and while he's an easy target and has done some scummy things, they were more self-defensive or newbie-who-doesn't-know-who-to-believe than anything. So either scum are intensely relaxed about a faubiguy lynch, or they're pushing it.

Yes, suddenly I'm sticking up for faubiguy, and that's exactly the behaviour I'm describing as "potential scumbuddy material!". Heck, it's what I did in 101. That's kind of why I'm aiming at being mislynched now; flipping town is about the only way I have of shaking off the 0MG SCUMSLIP and 0MG SHE DIDN'T VOTE accusations.

(And yes, yes, I'm very good at long-winded posts full of nothing but treachery; that's why I'm pushing the issue up the timetable, so when I flip town, it can't be waved away, and it doesn't come too late).

Unstoppable force of nature. That means she/her/hers.Has committed an act of treason.

Opus_723, real life issues come first, and I have found most people understand; just keep the mod informed if you are unable to play.

SDK wrote:For the record, we're at 7 alive right now with 2 scum. Mislynch plus kill puts us at 3v2, in lylo (lynch or lose). Mislynch with no kill (thanks to the bulletproof) puts us at 4v2, in mylo (mislynch and lose), an only very slightly better position because we have the option of no lynching (whoopdeedoo). What that means is a 9 player setup with 2 scum kinda makes protective roles less powerful because they need to stop two kills in order to buy us another lynch.

OK, SDK (and Yablo too) is right. For some reason I thought that if we had at least one successful lynch we could get another lynch when I worked it out in my head. I wrote it out and I see the best we could do is an extra day. So just crunching the numbers, the BP townie is not a big advantage. But it does give us the benefit of the BP townie’s input for an additional day, and that is an advantage.

Echo, the reference to the Bird7P game is an example where an unorthodox player that claimed power town was lynched D1 so he wouldn’t be the center of attention for the rest of the game, and derail scumhunting efforts. It was successful partially because we didn’t spend all of D2 rehashing D1 arguments about said player and deciding whether or not to let him live again.

Echo244 wrote: Different from this one, as the lynch of Vytron took out one of the active power roles, leaving a Doctor, whose successful night action plus uncontested claim left scum with pretty much nowhere to hide. We don't have that here.

Irrelevant to my argument.

Echo244 wrote: I'd also like to note there's a post in here where bessie defends Vytron based on behaviour in a previous game, so in that context I hope those who defended username D1 aren't judged too harshly.

This meta argument doesn’t hold. Almost all my analysis in that game was based on content from that game. I don’t want this to turn into a discussion of another game or another player that isn’t even involved with this game so I will leave it there. And instead I will say this.

SDK wrote:Note to self: username really is a loose cannon. That guy wasn't even playing the same game as us...

Agree completely. He wasn’t. Username wasn’t playing as part of a team, town or mafia. I believe he was playing his own game to amuse himself. And I’ve said as much before. See this post and this post. He was town, his behavior was anti-town, and therefore his lynch justified. And I don’t believe I’m judging those who defended username because they defended username. I am suspicious of those who continue to defend a player in the game for what I believe are the wrong reasons, and attack those who voted for a player in the game for what I believe are valid reasons.

I was hoping to hear from faubiguy by now, but oh well. I still need to do a read of SDK and Opus (if he posts), and analyze moody’s posts for a hint as to why he was killed. And I should read Echo’s new content closely, I just did a skim. I should have another post in a few hours.

Okay, I've caught up now. Lots to take in! Two threads of discussion jump out at me:

1. Username voters vs. Non-voters

I feel like following this trail doesn't help us a lot, but that might just be due to my particular position: Unlike Echo and Yablo, I had a strong scum read on username, and I was well on my way to voting for him until he claimed jailkeeper. That made my stomach turn, and I was afraid to lynch him, so I delayed. I didn't have time for a discussion post on Halloween, but I did see that there was a tie between username and faubiguy, and I wasn't confident enough to break it either way. Those two were my two scummiest reads (and for the record, my scum read on faubiguy hasn't changed, but given my own delay in returning after D1 I want to give him more time to post before I pursue that further). So I sympathize with those who voted for username and those who stayed out of it. That might sound like a hollow position now, but there you go. Anyway, it looks like we have something more fruitful going on now...

2. Echo vs. SDK

This is an aggressive move by Echo. I wasn't really reading SDK as town (I've had him a bit on the scummy side of neutral based on our D1 interactions) but Echo seems suddenly and unfalteringly confident that SDK is scum. There's no power role left that could know something like that for sure. He cast a bit of suspicion on her, but it seems like the usual fare around here. She then challenged him to a showdown and is now practically daring us to lynch her. I have a hard time understanding her motivations. No one has even voted for her.

On that note, I have a question for adnapemit:

adnapemit wrote:I'm not so sure that's was a slip. But this:

Echo244 wrote:Lynching username - the only town power role - was a golden opportunity for scum, whether or not faubiguy was town.

probably was.

Could you clarify why you think this looks bad? I'm not quite following what's wrong with it.

Since I was absent for a lot of discussion, I would also like to invite everyone to ask for my input on anything in particular that I missed.

Echo has made it her vs SDK. This is an interesting development. I hope they are not both town...I don't think they could both be scum though not if there is a chance that one of them does get lynched.Well I was starting to doubt faubiguy and since I said I'd wait for a post from them I guess I shall look elsewhere.

SDK appears to be reading every sentence very closely looking for anything scummy rather than going on votes. He could be looking as a town player or just trying to find someone to deflect suspicion from him. His original suggestion that Echo slipped up just appeared to be something almost taken out of context. But Echo's reaction was greater than I expected. She then became quite defensive and certain that those who voted were the most suspicious.

SDK wrote:Avoiding wagons is a thing that scum do, yeah. I didn't really get the impression that Echo was avoiding getting on a wagon though. I should reread that.

I didn't get the impression she was either but she is ignoring the possibility that it was an option instead insisting that those who voted were the only ones with suspicion.

@Opus_723: That post looks bad because it suggests that username was the only power role, implying we have set-up #4 where there is no bulletproof townie. Only mafia could know this. She corrected herself in her next post saying *active* role.

I've said it before but SDK is always going to look suspicious to me and but it does feel like Echo is daring people to vote for her. If this she is town this is a very bad thing to do.Current rankings:

This is an aggressive move by Echo. I wasn't really reading SDK as town (I've had him a bit on the scummy side of neutral based on our D1 interactions) but Echo seems suddenly and unfalteringly confident that SDK is scum. There's no power role left that could know something like that for sure. He cast a bit of suspicion on her, but it seems like the usual fare around here. She then challenged him to a showdown and is now practically daring us to lynch her. I have a hard time understanding her motivations. No one has even voted for her.

Yup, it's an aggressive move. I've been called on alleged scumslips; I'm targeted for a D3 lynch by SDK if faubiguy is lynched and flips town; when I try and defend myself, it gets picked apart as further evidence. Unfortunately, I'm unprovably town, and as a new player I'm not very good at defending myself, so as someone on the list of "people we should lynch", I need to get my thoughts down and then my scummy-appearing self out of the way before LYLO.

Essentially, I think that SDK is not only mafia, but *very good* mafia. He's picking on things and making plausible behavioural arguments for lynches, prodding people, picking them apart, but not particularly changing his mind at responses. It feels more like looking for a weak townie than scumhunting. I probably wouldn't have picked up on it, apart from his early targeting of me for tomorrow. He seems to be regarded as "doing the right things" and looking townier than most other people. I find it very difficult to challenge him. And yet, we were drifting towards a faubiguy lynch, nobody really challenging this, and he had me lined up for D3. Certainly, if faubiguy flipped town and I raised these suspicions D3, I'd have much less credibility, and would be likely to be railroaded into a mislynch at LYLO.

I don't want that to happen.

So, early strong call, and if I'm on the list, let's get me out of the way. I'm not particularly credible with the alleged scumslips; I doubt many people will listen to me, so when I flip town, I'm hoping that you'll all listen to <reverb>THE ECHO FROM BEYOND THE GRAVE!</reverb>

(Yeah, it's not Draculafia, but hey, I couldn't *not* use it once I'd thought of it)

bessie's post, I... mostly agree with, the bits I'd debate are more for a post-game discussion of D1 than anything else. As a result, my arguments against SDK, shorn of D1 analysis:

*Has been pushing - voting even - for faubiguy all day, dead certain, not lurking nor alleged scumslip by anyone else has changed his mind;*Nobody's really stood up to this, so I think scum are comfortable with his lynch;*Has lined me up for D3 if faubiguy flips town, and I'm town with only one way to prove that.

Nobody else has seemed like they've been pushing much. This is the strongest narrative I see, and I suspect it.

Yeah, it's not much. He's good. But I'm feeling backed into a corner by the scumslip accusations, and on D3 this will all be just a load of OMGUS that gets me mislynched. The more I look at it, the more sense it makes. It's a bit of a wild theory, and I've been called into question so that I don't have much credibility, but hopefully between that and a whole pile of nothing, it'll turn out to be a pretty cool hand. ;-D

Unstoppable force of nature. That means she/her/hers.Has committed an act of treason.

Echo244 wrote:So, early strong call, and if I'm on the list, let's get me out of the way. I'm not particularly credible with the alleged scumslips; I doubt many people will listen to me, so when I flip town, I'm hoping that you'll all listen to <reverb>THE ECHO FROM BEYOND THE GRAVE!</reverb>

(Yeah, it's not Draculafia, but hey, I couldn't *not* use it once I'd thought of it)

Clarification: the reference to Draculafia was absolutely *not* trying to bring in other games; to do so would be very poor form, the "ECHO FROM BEYOND THE GRAVE" bit is just flavour - a line I came up with that matched my username, from watching too much Hammer Horror, and fits very much my current "I'm low on a few people's scum lists, called on scumslips, and have only one way to clear my name" tactic.

Unstoppable force of nature. That means she/her/hers.Has committed an act of treason.

I have Faubiguy as my strongest scum read, but Echo244's making herself out to be a better fight promoter than Don King. She definitely took the spotlight and shined it on herself and SDK. Let's look at that matchup.

I've got SDK as only slightly less-scummy than Faubiguy, and the only person I read as more townie than Echo244 is Opus_723. I happen to agree with Echo244 that SDK seems to be giving town a sort of Mislynch Shopping List, but if I had a strong townie read on him, I'd probably see it the other way.

Echo244 made a pretty bold move by picking a fight with SDK, and it seems desperate. Either she's actually worried that SDK will convince people to vote her off the island, or she's redirecting attention from faubiguy. I read her posts as genuine, which I'll admit can be dangerous in a game like this. I'm going to try to re-read D2 posts today if I can. Football is starting up in about 5 minutes, and I haven't had coffee yet.

Echo244 wrote:Yup, it's an aggressive move. I've been called on alleged scumslips; I'm targeted for a D3 lynch by SDK if faubiguy is lynched and flips town; when I try and defend myself, it gets picked apart as further evidence. Unfortunately, I'm unprovably town, and as a new player I'm not very good at defending myself, so as someone on the list of "people we should lynch", I need to get my thoughts down and then my scummy-appearing self out of the way before LYLO.

This just seems so backwards to me. I honestly had you as a solid townie, while SDK was more suspicious to me. It looks like at least Yablo thought similarly. On D1 you had townie reads from just about everyone. I'm just not seeing that you were in danger of being lynched. You seem to be playing the victim when all you got were a few sideways glances, which pretty much everyone is getting. There is a long way to go between SDK's suggestion, whatever his motives, and a lynch on you for D3. So much can change in that timespan that I don't understand why you're so certain that you were doomed. It makes me think you know something we don't, and that smells like scum to me.

And if you are town, then your plan makes no sense. I'm not going to suddenly agree with everything you said because you flipped town, I'm just going to see it as weird, possibly unhelpful town play. We're not looking back at username's posts as sage proclamations of truth just because he turned out to be the jailkeeper, because he didn't know any more than we did.

Echo244 wrote:*Has been pushing - voting even - for faubiguy all day, dead certain, not lurking nor alleged scumslip by anyone else has changed his mind;*Nobody's really stood up to this, so I think scum are comfortable with his lynch...

To be fair, you're challenging a faubiguy lynch. Maybe scum isn't so okay with it after all.

I don't have much of a defence. My logic was that it's better to lynch a player who might be scum than myself who I know is town, but that obviously doesn't translate to anyone else's perspective, and I can clearly see how I ended up helping scum with the wrong vote.

SDK wrote:Okay, that's fair enough. Who fits that description?

My initial impression is SDK and Echo more than other players, but going back and looking though their posts nothing particularly stands out to me. I still think those two are most likely to each be scum, though.

Adnapemit and Opus are looking the most town to me, followed by bessie and Yablo in the middle. I'm not sure on the Echo vs SDK thing, but I'm leaning towards Echo being town and SDK scum (its possible both or neither are scum, but I'm reasonably sure one is town and the other scum)

If SDK is scum, I think bessie likely is too, because I'm fairly confident Opus and adnapemit are town, and I don't think SDK and Echo are both scum. They also both voted for username, though that fact alone probably doesn't point very strongly either way.

SDK is seeming the most likely to me to be scum at this point.[b[Vote: SDK[/b]

Let’s see, 22 hours to deadline, and faubiguy hasn’t posted on D2. He may have a RL issue so I feel uncomfortable about attacking him for not posting. I’ll wait and see if he responds to the prod.

Finishing up my reads.

Opus_723 – Late start on D2, but has made up for it with some good contributions. I just don’t have anything to say about Opus today except that I have him pretty firmly as town. And a want to say that this is probably the wisest thing I have seen in this thread.

Opus_723 wrote:And if you are town, then your plan makes no sense. I'm not going to suddenly agree with everything you said because you flipped town, I'm just going to see it as weird, possibly unhelpful town play. We're not looking back at username's posts as sage proclamations of truth just because he turned out to be the jailkeeper, because he didn't know any more than we did.

SDK – I agree with most of what he has said in this game. I don’t see anything suspicious in his vote for faubiguy. It was very early on D2, and based on faubiguy’s scummy D1 behavior. And I don’t see any reason for him to remove his vote on faubiguy just because faubiguy hasn’t posted. So I don’t agree with Echo’s accusation that he is lining up the lynch.

New content.

Echo vs SDK – I don’t agree with Echo’s attack on SDK, but I think it is a remarkably bold move to turn this into a “him or me” argument (for a player of any experience level). Makes me wonder if this is really a town vs town situation. But I think that Echo’s main arguments against SDK are flawed: that he “has been lining up faubiguy for the lynch right from the start” and that he “managed to get username lynched, carrying right on after he claimed Jailkeeper”.

So it’s not like SDK picked a player that everyone read as town and decided to try to get him lynched today. faubiguy was under heavy suspicion at the start of D2 and probably the only reason he hasn’t been lynched is that some players, myself included, want to give him an opportunity to post before he is hammered. And I don’t think the accusation that SDK managed to get username lynched is fair, because username’s scummy behavior helped with that.

Finally, my thoughts on the moody kill. Why moody? Unfortunately moody didn’t have a lot of content. His scum reads were username and faubiguy, and he was voting for faubiguy. So based on his reads faubiguy had the best reason for killing him. I tried looking at content about moody, and nothing really stands out. There was a remark by me that his style was very consistent and that I couldn’t tell his scum game from his town game. So maybe moody was killed because scum thought that he wouldn’t do anything scummy and they wouldn’t be able to get him lynched. Hmm. Well, I guess my conclusion is that I can see a reason for faubiguy to kill moody.

faubiguy, I really don’t like your post. It feels scummy to me. I’m thinking of voting for you.

faubiguy wrote:I can clearly see how I ended up helping scum with the wrong vote.

This is a very pointed statement. OK, let me ask you, what do you think was the right vote?

faubiguy wrote:My initial impression is SDK and Echo more than other players, but going back and looking though their posts nothing particularly stands out to me. I still think those two are most likely to each be scum, though.

In this same post you also say that you're leaning town on Echo and scum on SDK, and even later you say that you don't think Echo and SDK are both scum. Can you please point to some examples as to why you think either is scum? Or town? And can you give some reasons for your vote on SDK? Or are you just voting for him because Echo is voting for him?

I was pretty sure I was coming in here to vote for Echo anyway, but thought I'd give the game a quick read before I did so to confirm. This one quote sealed it for me:

Echo244 wrote:I didn't vote because I didn't see anyone particularly to vote *for*.

This was the very first thing Echo said Day 2, and was in response to exactly no one. Not a single person had mentioned the fact that Echo didn't vote (and disappeared at end of Day). This confirms to me that this absence was intentional. 100%.

Vote Echo.

At this point I'm actually thinking that faubiguy is a likely buddy here, despite what I said earlier. Echo talked about fauibiguy a lot, but everytime was hedging against me and bessie. She never even voted for the guy in the end, so I'm pretty sure this is distancing leading up to an act of deperation with her attack on me. The way faubiguy came in here to vote me feels like buddying as well.

Alright, let's start with the scum slips. The first is here, "to lynch the power role first", implying that username and faubiguy were both town with the fact that username was a PR being the distinguishing factor. Admittedly weak, but worth a prod. Following that prod, we get the second more impressive slip here, calling username "the only town power role", implying that we are in setup 4 instead of 6. Only scum could have known that. After this is brought up, Echo revises to "*Active* power role", which is within the realm of possible town responses, but I think town would very rarely make that mistake in the first place. The setup being an unknown, town are careful not to talk in absolutes, you know? As I said before, not a slam-dunk, but it's good.

The next two major points sort of go together, but I'll address them individually. Echo didn't have much of an opinion on faubiguy in Day 1, though she had him second place on the sliders without much reason early on (he could have just as easily been a neutral read, but Opus had already brought up the scummy bits of faubiguy's only post, so at this point I think we've got a follow-the-townie thing going on). Day 2 starts and faubiguy tops her scum list, though bessie and I get much more attention in that post. This is what I meant by "double-speak regarding the faubiguy lynch". She's saying one thing, but pushing another. ***I guess we can also add here the fact that her top two lynch choices, username and faubiguy, were the two wagons Day 1, but she's still inclined to blame everyone else for actually being on the wagons. This response to Yablo basically spells that out, where she's implying that Yablo's vote could have saved the Day, when the same is obviously true of her own vote.***But back to faubiguy, it's just another post where she talks about nothing but bessie and me, with a throw-away sentence devoted to faubiguy: "Behaviourally, faubiguy has been scummiest, and voted username, after the uncontested Jailkeeper claim" is again the double-speak, where she wants to be perceived as wanting to lynch faubiguy, probably because she still thinks the Day is going to go that way, but super-extra wants to get the wagon to shift to me or bessie. She talks about how scummy faubiguy is a couple more times, but you get the idea - it's actions vs. words here.

As for that, the faubiguy wagon goes nowhere for a time. I guess Echo took that as an invitation to try to overtly get something started against me. This was very confusing to me initially since I couldn't really reconcile that move in a scumEcho, townfaubiguy world. Therefore, maybe Echo's town? But no, it makes good sense in an Echo/faubiguy scumteam to make this move (especially if the sentiment that they couldn't be scum buddies held), and is a big part of the reason I think those two are scum buddies. Her pushes against faubiguy (which I took to mean they were opposite alignment) were not pushes at all, they look like nothing but distancing.

Anyway! The point of this third bit is overconfidence, and a willingness to apparently throw the game away if she's wrong. For that reason, dichotomies like this are VERY atypical from town. Dichotomies are just about the sole province of desperate scum, her desperation apparently coming from the fact that I'd caught two slips from her. Speaking as townEcho, this narrative she's drawn up doesn't come close to the confidence she's showing. Her entire case revolves around one line from me, "I think if faubiguy flips town, Echo is almost certainly scum" which she calls "planning for a mislynch in advance" when it's really just me talking through the fact that I had two scumreads that (at the time) seemed mutually exclusive. That's it, it's weak, and she knows it's weak ("Yeah, it's not much. He's good."). So why does she even believe it in the face of what was apparently a strong scum read on faubiguy? She shouldn't. Town wouldn't, and certainly wouldn't frame it as a dichotomy to hand the mafia the game in the event that she's wrong.

tl;dr1) I caught some weak scum slips... 2) ... which scared Echo into pushing a dichotomy against me in the face of her apparent faubiguy scum read...3) ... that she never acted on and was always very happy to pay only the smallest lip service to in case the wagon actually ever started.

I suppose I could respond to Echo's three points here too...

Echo244 wrote:*Has been pushing - voting even - for faubiguy all day, dead certain, not lurking nor alleged scumslip by anyone else has changed his mind;

This is flatly not true. faubiguy was a good place to start based on moody's death and his rather poor responses to my questions Day 1. I asked him some follow up questions along with my vote to give them credit. If I was dead certain, I'd have done a case and let that speak for itself.

You claim I was pushing for his lynch. Can you link even one place where I pushed the lynch? I only mentioned him on two occasions as far as I can tell: to ask bessie's opinion (mainly to help with reading her), and on his relationship to you. That's it. Almost this entire Day has been devoted to my developing scum read on you.

Echo244 wrote:*Nobody's really stood up to this, so I think scum are comfortable with his lynch;

You're using this as proof that faubiguy is town, presumably because scum would stand up for their buddies. Besides the fact that scum will usually NOT defend their buddies*, this is no proof at all since town players will sometimes defend others too, whether they are town or scum. Look at username.

*They will usually do one of two things: 1) Try to move conversation elsewhere, often paying lip service to their buddy's wagon just in case they aren't successful at shifting the direction (basically, exactly what I see in your Day 2 interaction with faubiguy), or 2) Go hard against the buddy in order to clear themselves as town when they are lynched (also known as "bussing", ie: throwing their buddy under the bus).

Echo244 wrote:*Has lined me up for D3 if faubiguy flips town, and I'm town with only one way to prove that.

I said this above, but yes, in the absence of other information I probably would have pushed you if we'd lynched townfaubiguy toDay. At this point that's not going to happen for several reasons, hopefully one of them being that you're both scum.

My two strongest town reads are adnapemit and Opus_723, and they are both currently voting Echo244. My two strongest scum reads are faubiguy and SDK. faubiguy is voting SDK, and SDK is not only voting, but also pushing hard, for Echo244. With no votes on faubiguy, my vote would likely be a throwaway if I were to vote him, so it'll likely come down to Echo244 vs, SDK.

Based on my previous reads, my vote should go to SDK, but Echo244 is seeming desperate while SDK is making well-thought-out points. I don't particularly agree that Echo244's alleged scumslips are as obvious as he says, but when you see something, you should examine it. The point he makes that I do find interesting is about a potential Echo244/faubiguy scumteam. Given my strong scum read on faubiguy, this idea definitely deserves attention. They are the only two voting for SDK at the moment.

If I'm reading the votals right, there are three votes on Echo244, and two votes on SDK with only bessie and myself not yet voting. With seven players, a fourth vote is the hammer, right? That means I can either hammer Echo244 now; tie up the vote and leave chance or bessie as tie-breaker; or abstain, and leave it to bessie to hammer or let the clock run out on Echo244.

My prediction is that bessie will vote Echo244 no matter how I vote, and I'm not 100% confident, so I'm apprehensive regarding taking up the hammer. Still, I didn't vote Day 1. Echo244 is almost certainly getting lynched today, and if she flips town, I'm still looking at faubiguy as scum. I just don't get a faubiguy/SDK scumteam vibe, so my reads might be off. If she flips scum, I doubt I'll hesitate to throw a vote at faubiguy on D3.

We have about seven and a half hours before the deadline, so I'll take a little time to think about hammers.

If you like Call of Cthulhu and modern government conspiracy, check out my Delta Green thread.Please feel free to ask questions or leave comments.

I didn’t want to vote this morning because I wanted to give everyone an opportunity to reply. I think everyone has had enough time and deadline is in an hour and a half anyway.

I think faubiguy is scum. His post last night just makes me more certain. He gives some weak reads with no analysis to support those reads, and he gives no reasons for voting SDK. I was less certain about Echo although I have expressed my doubts about her in my posts. But faubiguy’s vote for SDK with no reason makes me strongly suspect he is just following her vote (also some of the wording in that post also makes me think he is following her in trying to push the SDK or Echo thing too). SDK’s long post on Echo presents a strong case and I can’t really find any fault in his analysis. I’ll probably find something I want to ask him about after I think about it overnight (I just got home from work so I just read it now) but I’m pretty sure one of us will be dead tomorrow.