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Why Barack Obama is winning

The 2012 election is proving politics is not always about numbers. | AP Photo

A Democratic landscape

The state-by-state polls this fall make it clear: The 2008 presidential election was no anomaly. The Upper South and interior West are now competitive terrain and will be in future White House races. That means Democrats have more margin for error than Republicans when it comes to cobbling together 270 electoral votes.

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“The map has changed to give any Democrat the better grip on the electorate,” said van Lohuizen.

As more voters, both transients from other states and immigrants, have poured into states like Nevada, Colorado, Virginia and North Carolina, political demographics in these places have been transformed. It’s the new Democratic coalition there and in traditional swing states that is bolstering Obama.

“Despite a high unemployment rate, anemic economy, and upside-down right track/wrong track, Obama is being kept afloat by a solid base of support among African-Americans, Hispanics, liberals, single and college-educated women, and union households,” said longtime Christian conservative strategist Ralph Reed. “Those groups alone add up to about 46 percent of the electorate.”

Plus, Republicans have their own firm conservative base that doesn’t move based on exterior conditions. So in this polarized era, there are just more entrenched voters — individuals who don’t split their tickets and move from their party loyalties as they did in the past.

“The number of people we’re trying to win over is very small,” said longtime Republican Don Fierce. “That’s what’s different from 1980 or other campaigns in the past — there’s such a small number that are there to move.”

What helps Democrats is that the country’s changing face has let them play offense on traditionally Republican turf without having to worry about liberal bulwarks. The population-heavy coastal states Democrats have had a lock on for two decades remain out of reach for Republicans.

Former Democratic Florida governor and Sen. Bob Graham, who held statewide office for 26 years, recalled that in 1980, the number of electoral votes that were considered solidly Democratic and Republican were about equal.

“Now, that number is noticeably tilted toward Democrats,” Graham said.

The problem for the right is that what Democrats have steadily lost with lower middle-class whites over the years, they’ve made up for with middle-class and wealthy women — creating a yawning gender gap that puts Republicans at a disadvantage in the very states that now make up the presidential battlegrounds.

“We lost Bubba a long time ago; he’s done,” said Democrat James Carville of working-class white males. “But what we didn’t realize at the time is that we picked up all the post-college white women by the same amount. You walk into any grad school class today, the women are all our voters.”

And, Carville added, it’s both racial minorities and such working women who are uneasy about some of the nostalgic language Republicans use when it comes to taking back the White House.

“They keep saying they want to restore America — but to a vast number of Americans, they weren’t part of that America,” he said.

What frustrates Republicans the most, and will surely be Topic A for many in the party if Romney loses, is the party’s apparent structural problem with Hispanics — something that is hampering the nominee in Florida and the West.

“Republicans, including Romney, hurt themselves among Hispanic votes in the primary this year,” said former Mississippi governor and Republican National Committee Chairman Haley Barbour, alluding to the hard line GOP candidates took on immigration. “And you add to that Obama has totally politicized the issue of immigration to the point that he preferred having the issue to having a bill.”

Looking past November, Barbour added: “In the future, and not distant future, Republicans have to come to grips with the right policy on immigration.”

The incumbent’s staying power

In 2008, Obama marketed himself as a global phenomenon, and his political skills were widely described as something almost unworldly in origin. Hardly anyone — not even hard-core Obama loyalists — believes this any longer, after a first term of repeated setbacks and dwindling popularity.

Answer: because the most corrupt liberal/progressive institution in America, our MSM Super Wolf Pac Press is lying and misleading the American people on every story and poll they conduct?

The Fact is Barack Obama isn't winning he is losing and losing badly even though our MSM wolfpack has censored much of important news of the day like the fact that Ambassor Chris Stevens and three other Americans are dead today because the Obama Administration failed to protect them on September 11th, 9/11

Obama's Domestic Policy = Failure and he has no Plans or Ideas for a second term let alone "specifics"

Obama's Foreign Policy = Failure and the Middle East burns, a slow Rwanda II continues in Syria, and Ambassor Chris Stevens and three other Americans are dead becasue the Obama Administration didn't protect them on September 11th ........ 9/11

America no longer has a Free Press.........yes you are living in Nazi America........

Well Obama's MSM Super Wolf Pac press is pulling out all the stops in their efforts to Re-Install Barack Obama in November, its not going to work............

September 17th, 2012

For the last two weeks we have been treated to the narrative that Barack Obama is surging at the polls, Mitt Romney is in trouble and unless there is a massive change in direction it is all over.

Simply put this is a lie.

Of all the polls you have seen, there is one poll that has gotten no attention, it is a poll that has been taken monthly, it is a poll that Doug Ross spotted and promoted on his site. It is the Rasmussen Poll of party identification.

They have party identification results online dating back to 2004. Here are the 2012 numbers through August

This is required reading...............................and exposes the lying and misleading Obama's MSM wolfpack is enaging in.......constantly now....

Ben Stein's Diary

Mr. President, Mitt Romney Is Not the Enemy

By Ben Stein on 9.13.12 @ 8:00AM

Al Qaeda is. Please inform your Ministry of Truth.

So, let me get this straight:

It is September 11, 2012. An Al Qaeda sponsored mob is marching, running, screaming towards the U.S. Embassy in Cairo. Supposedly they are angry about an e-mail cartoon about the Islamic figure, Mohammed. It is known right away that the organizers of the march are the same entity that did the mass murder of Americans on 9.11.01.

The Embassy issues an apology for an American using his free speech rights about a matter of deep concern. They attempt to appease the mob. It doesn't work. The mobs acts violently and disrespectfully towards the U.S. Embassy. They are al Qaeda. This is what they do.

No comment or almost none from Mr. Obama.

Then an al Qaeda mob attacks the U.S. Mission in Benghazi, Libya, burns it, kills the U.S. Ambassador and three other heroic American diplomats. Again, in a classic al Qaeda move, it is all timed perfectly to infuriate the USA. It isn't spontaneous. It was 9/11, for Pete's sake.

No comment from Mr. Obama except terse condolences.

Then along comes Governor Romney, who rightly says, "Hey, why are we appeasing an al Qaeda mob? Why aren't we calling these guys the vicious killers that they are? Why are we back in this apology to bad guys mode?"

Then, and only then, the Obama White House goes into hyper drive. It turns out that the real problem is not al Qaeda. No, and it's not Mr. Obama's appeasement. No, the real threat to America is (wait for it), Mitt Romney. Yes!!! According to White House uber-pal, MSNBC's Rachel Maddow, Romney is working with the terrorists against the U.S. government by calling for criticism of the al Qaeda!

Yes, Romney is the enemy for pointing out that Mr. Obama is ass kissing the terrorists!

This is terrifying. The media line up to get their marching orders from the Obama Ministry of Truth and suddenly it's Gospel: the problem is not al Qaeda. It is Romney. With a "more in sorrow than in anger…" look and tone, Mr. Obama pities Romney's naïveté.

This is disgusting. It is nauseating. This is what happens when you have a one-party media. The lie becomes the truth. George Orwell saw it coming. In 1984, his MiniTrue had up its mission.

Who controls the present, controls the past. Who controls the past controls the future.

It has happened. The MSM and the White House have outlawed truth. Some of us old ones can remember when it was legal and the media worked to keep it alive. Now, like the firemen inFahrenheit 451, the MSM press exists to obliterate truth -- not to preserve it.

Meanwhile, Mr. Netanyahu begs the U.S. to do something to protect it and the world from the Iranian bomb. Mr. Obama bobs and weaves to avoid contact with reality and responsibility. No one even mentions that if we had allowed Ronald Reagan or George W. Bush to build ABM defense, the whole world would be a safer place, and we race towards war or an Islamic control of our expression or both, and the master politician gets ready for his turn on Letterman.

God help us."

.........I second that God help us...............more like God Bless US with Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan on November 6th, 2012

“Despite a high unemployment rate, anemic economy, and upside-down right track/wrong track, Obama is being kept afloat by a solid base of support among African-Americans, Hispanics, liberals, single and college-educated women, and union households,” said longtime Christian conservative strategist Ralph Reed. “Those groups alone add up to about 46 percent of the electorate.”

An Obama win is a loss for the country. Romney is right about the 47% who suckle off the backs of those who are over taxed to support these lazy azzes. 4 more years of Obama means 4 more years of record unemployment,record welfare benefits, record food stamps, and record spending to keep the sheeple on the democrat plantation.

The Right Is Wrong to Pin Obama’s Edge on Welfare State By Ramesh Ponnuru Sep 17, 2012 3:30 PM MT

More recently, many conservatives have expressed worry that the growth in the percentage of Americans who pay no federal income tax will make the electorate more supportive of big government.

As an explanation for electoral trends, though, this theory doesn’t hold up.

One major reason for the growth of the federal government in recent years has been that entitlement spending per beneficiary has increased, and so has the number of beneficiaries as people have retired. Yet senior citizens -- who benefit from federal programs, on average, far more than younger people -- have become more Republican over that same period. They actually voted for John McCain over Obama in 2008 by a slightly higher margin than they did for George W. Bush over John Kerry in 2004.

In 2010, their Republican margin increased even more, to a whopping 21 points. Pollster Scott Rasmussen told me that in his latest poll, Romney still leads among seniors by 19 points.

It’s true that Americans with low incomes -- more and more of whom now receive food stamps and federally subsidized health insurance -- have generally voted for Democrats over Republicans. But in 2010, these voters shifted toward Republicans even as food stamps, unemployment benefits and the like continued to increase.

Here is the next "story" Obama's MSM Super Wolf Pac press will be "milking" for a while.............lol

The left is making hay over a recent statement attributed to Mitt Romney; A statement that resonates as being true and consistent with most reasonable and rational thinkers. A similar statement is also attributed to Alexander Tyler [Tytler], a Scottish lawyer and history professor at the University of Edinburgh in the late 1700's- "A democracy will continue to exist up until the time that voters discover they can vote themselves generous gifts from the public treasury." The statement has also been attributed to Alexis de Tocqueville, although Tyler precedes him in attribution. The fact remains, A democracy will continue to exist up until the time that voters discover they can vote themselves generous gifts from the public treasury. History proves the point! These issues are further described in the preamble of, On The Brink, America's Choice 2012.

Obama is winning in the same sense that Carter was "winning" in 1980. CARTER VS. REAGAN POLLING

Some wingnuts attempt to stave off depression by falsely claiming that Carter led Reagan in the polls until the 1st and only debate. This is another wingnut lie, as Nate Cohn found out:

The voters that flocked toward Reagan already demonstrated their willingness to vote for him, never indicated any intention of voting for Carter following the DNC, and uniformly disapproved of the president’s performance. Check out this chart from John Sides: