What is something you were just plain wrong about?

Jan 10, 2013 4:21 PM

I was once told that hot water would freeze faster than cold water. I don't know why I believed it but I just commiteted it to my knowlege bank. Then one day, something came up in a coversation where I was able to use that fun fact... not only did I get a bunch of people looking at me like I was an idiot, but we proceeded to try the experience because I was convinced I was right. I wasn't.

If you were given the opportunity to win a car that is behind one of 3 doors but the other two doors have a goat behind them. You pick door number #1. The host then opens door #2 to show you that it has a goat and gives you the option to keep your choice of door #1 or switch to door #3. It was mentioned that you should switch because it does make a difference statistically. I didn't believe it and was very vocal against it.

So then I did a computer simulation of this and it's true. It really does make a difference if you switch. The chances are in your favor to select the other door that you didn't initially pick.

If you were given the opportunity to win a car that is behind one of 3 doors but the other two doors have a goat behind them. You pick door number #1. The host then opens door #2 to show you that it has a goat and gives you the option to keep your choice of door #1 or switch to door #3. It was mentioned that you should switch because it does make a difference statistically. I didn't believe it and was very vocal against it.

So then I did a computer simulation of this and it's true. It really does make a difference if you switch. The chances are in your favor to select the other door that you didn't initially pick.

The pronunciation of the word "renovate." Before I saw it in writing (or, at least, before I PAID ATTENTION to the word in writing), I said "re-innovate." I seriously thought that this was the word.

Having said that, I'm sure I've been wrong on any number of occasions. I have managed to raise two kids who still live at home in their 20's, so that is proof of something I've done wrong, at least. On the other hand, neither is in jail, so there's that.

@cengland0: I was the same way in one of my informatics courses. The short version explination:

When you initially make your choice your probability of making the correct choice is 0.33 (1 in 3). And (this is the hard part to wrap your head around): that probability does not change moving forward.

So, then Monte reveals one of the wrong choices. The probability of the door you didn't choose having the car is now 0.5. But the probability of you being correct initially remains at 0.33

Of course, IRL it isn't so easy. This assumes that Monty will always play the same game regardless if you were right or wrong initially. If you know that the contestant knows this is the preferred strategy, you would only offer it if he guessed right correctly, knowing he would jump to the wrong door, and not offer if he was wrong initially.

@wilfbrim: Actually, the way it works is that the door you first picked has a 1/3rd chance of having the car.

The other two doors combined have a 2/3rd chance of having the car.

You open one of the doors that you didn't pick causing the remaining door to have the full 2/3rd chance of having the car.

And you are right about the consistency. For example, if you picked door #1 and it contained a goat, the host might immediately open door #1 and say, oops, you didn't win the car. But, if they always reveal a door that you did not open and let you decide to keep the door you originally picked or change to the remaining unopened door, the statistics are in your favor if you switch doors.

If you do not switch doors, you will win 33.3% of the time. If you do switch doors, you will win 66.6% of the time.

Lots of things. Sometimes on purpose. Even though I know you are not supposed to, I pronounce the "l" in salmon. Saying "sammin" sounds childish to me, like saying "basketti" instead of spaghetti. I used to argue that if you were in a plane traveling faster than the speed of sound you couldn't talk to the person in the seat in front of you, just to watch my science-inclined friends' eyes bug out. I like to speculate that we all see different colors, but we have all been taught to call that color in the sky blue so that's the name we assign to whatever different thing we are all seeing. My grandmother touted the hot water freezing faster thing and I treated it like I treat a lot of stuff (including religion), I allowed for the possibility without believing it myself. I am wrong often enough and am sufficiently comfortable with it that I don't recall the times I have been wrong.

@moondrake: I've been trying to convince DH of the color thing for years. It's not that he doesn't believe me, it's that he doesn't seem to comprehend what I'm saying. I also believe that the same thing applies to taste and smell. What I call "sweet" might not taste the same to you, but since you've been taught that candy is sweet, you call it sweet regardless of how you experience that taste. I took an undergrad course in sensation and perception many years ago. We hashed over my theory in class back then, but, of course, there was no resolution.

I'm wrong on a regular basis. Just ask anyone who lives with me, especially if I married or gave birth to them. (sigh)

For me, when I was little, the pronunciation of the word "naked". At some point in my very early life, either me or my brother mispronounced it as "bacon." And before bath time (we were probably 2 and 4 yrs old) we would run around inside the house yelling "running bacon! running bacon!" After I realized that we meant "naked", I started yelling that, but it just wasn't the same.

The lyrics to "Margaritaville". In my youth, I decided warm front was the two syllable w word in the line: "Some people claim that there's a woman to blame." Weather seemed more likely to be trouble at the time.

@ripwave: But it's now considered standard because so many people got it wrong that the word just surrendered. That's how "alright" got into the dictionary. There's an interesting tension between proper English and English as a living language.

Yeah, Blue Bloods has lost a lot of it's drive, but it was never one of my favorites. Usually it's my favorites that get canceled, so I expect it will keep chugging away. Tom Selleck is still a force to be reckoned with, if the show is canceled I hope we see him again in a meaty role.

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