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I was wondering about the closed room with Hideyoshi and Natsuhi for a bit and I was thinking about how Hideyoshi came in, it could have been set up by the Killer. While Natsuhi was in the closet, she occasionally opened the door only to check her watch, I think so she couldnt have seen the killer, so with careful planning the killer unlocked the chain "quietly" while in the room with Natsuhi and hid under the bed. When Hideyoshi came into the room he was crying so I was thinking he was lured into there by a message pertaining to his son George. The killer did his thing as Natsuhi hid in the closet unable to do anything since she had to stay in there in ensure Krauss's supposed safety. After the killing, the killer re-chained the door and remained hidden under the bed....unless they put in that they checked under the bed in which case this theory just crashed and burned on it's own lol. Also the killer in my mind knew of Natsuhi's loyalty to Krauss as well as Kinzo so he would count on Natsuhi staying put if not the killer's plan was foiled. Of course this is just a theory....PS Ericka was probably a part of the killer's plan to put the sole blame on Natsuhi so this person has to be incredibly adept at making plans on the spot.

I was wondering about the closed room with Hideyoshi and Natsuhi for a bit and I was thinking about how Hideyoshi came in, it could have been set up by the Killer. While Natsuhi was in the closet, she occasionally opened the door only to check her watch, I think so she couldnt have seen the killer, so with careful planning the killer unlocked the chain "quietly" while in the room with Natsuhi and hid under the bed. When Hideyoshi came into the room he was crying so I was thinking he was lured into there by a message pertaining to his son George. The killer did his thing as Natsuhi hid in the closet unable to do anything since she had to stay in there in ensure Krauss's supposed safety. After the killing, the killer re-chained the door and remained hidden under the bed....unless they put in that they checked under the bed in which case this theory just crashed and burned on it's own lol. Also the killer in my mind knew of Natsuhi's loyalty to Krauss as well as Kinzo so he would count on Natsuhi staying put if not the killer's plan was foiled. Of course this is just a theory....PS Ericka was probably a part of the killer's plan to put the sole blame on Natsuhi so this person has to be incredibly adept at making plans on the spot.

Of course feel free to shoot it down.

I've been thinking about this possibility but there's a problem

Spoiler for ep5:

With the exception of Natsuhi and Hieyoshi, everyone else should have been in the same group. If it isn't so how would Natsuhi be the only suspect? At any rate when they arrived in the room, everyone is accounted for, so who is under the bed?
The X person theory at this point is impossible, it goes against the red truth and the knox rules.
There might be a solution to this if you claim one of the people that were supposed to be dead is the culprit. However this means you need to use a twisted theory about the red truth claiming their deaths, in the same way Battler did in the end, "you have said they are dead but you didn't say when". But Virgilia confirmed the deaths herself and she has no reason to trick anyone. Well except Genji.
The culprit is the butler? I hope not...

Well unlike Natsuhi, the killer had a solid alibi in this case, the killer possibly blackmailed Eva.
Threatening her with blame of the crimes, if she didn't help with giving the killer an alibi. Of course there is also the chance of Eva not knowing Hideyoshi was going to get killed, so in that case Eva was forced into a tight spot if she spilled her guts the killer would have found a way to have either killed her or placed blame solely on her. Eva also values her on safety and life above all else so the killer knew this and took advantage of the situation. As for the identity of the killer.
I remember Hideyoshi screaming something along the lines of "Who are you?" This person, mystery person X is disguised as a member of the Ushiromiya household.
Regardless of servant status or not, a mystery person X exists unless the Mystery Person X was a member of the Ushiromiya in disguise, in which case a whole new theory can be created, So I won't dwell into it that much lol.

Before anyone say anything:
Yes, I know about the red texts. Yes, I know about Knox #1&7. Yes, I know ura-tea party heavily hints that Battler is the one did it.

Spoiler for Intro:

Furudo Erika, new character of ep5. Mysterious, suspicious, with a dash of cuteness on the side. Berun's piece, an "intellectual rapist". A guest and detective of Rokkenjima, managed to help solve the epitaph, pinned Natushi into a corner, gamemaster of the board for a very short while.

Spoiler for Suspicious nature:

1. Furudo Erika showed up out of no where; could've been parachuted in by family memeber/servants.

2. Seems to know when and where the murders would happen. I know it's "natural" for murders to occur near the detective, but you don't read one where the detective pinpoints and eliminate possibilities of outside influences. Furude Erika pratically camped in the guest house waiting for the murder, why not camp in the main building?

3. Seems to pinpoint Natushi and branded her as the culprit, which reflected in some of her actions throughout the story. Either she was there to pin the crime on Natushi, or that "impersonation killing" theory is really in place.

Spoiler for red text defence:

First let's look at the red text defending her position.

古戸ヱリカは、これまでのベアトのゲームに影響を与えない。
これまでの世界には存在しないし、影響も与えないわ。

by Berun.

Basically states that Furudo Erika did not exist, and did not influence Beato's game so far (ep1~4). Fair enough, a person who never showed up shouldn't be the culprit anyway (using Knox's rules) So it's impossible for her to be responsible for ep1-4. However, what about ep5? Who said she can't do something? Just look at how shady Berun and LD is together. Ah yes, another limitation on ep5:

Dlanor's red text basically recites the same thing as No.1, that detectives are forbiddened to be the culprit. Rule #1 states that culprits cannot be someone who's new to the story.

Spoiler for serious analysis and speculation of the possibility:

First, I have to say that, there isn't alot of solid proof. You aren't going to see things like "Erika killed Krauss becuase Krauss owed Erika lots of money". Most of the counter arguements are just " it's possible that, considering all other elements, that Erika...". In other words, alot are just probatio diabolica.

Intent and conduct.

Intent: The obvious "perhaps she's the 'man from 19 years ago'". No one ever stated that the baby that fell down the cliff is male or female. Or perhaps it's just Berun's way of finishing the game early: kill off a bunch of people, frame Natushi, get it over with.

Conduct: Erika actually have the weakest alibi of them all: she has no alibi what-so-ever, beside the "detective cannot be culprit" thing. So if there's a way around that, then she would be the most suspious of the cast of ep5.

1. The statement stating that Erika is not a factor in the Beato's games.
Ep5 isn't Beato's game. It's LD's. That means, there's no guarantee that she's not a factor in ep5.

2. Knox rule #1, newcomers cannot be culprits.
The arugments are heavily based on the events happened on Rokkenjima, not meta. Therefore, it's the same arugment as no.1. First, it's LD's story. Second, all episodes are unique on its own: they start and end on as its own epsiode. It's actually strange to think that the whole ep1~5 (except the meta part) is one giant story in continuation. Therefore, nothing strange for Erika, who was introduced early in the story (at least well before the murders), to be the culprit.

3. The statement stating that detective cannot be culprits.
Knox rule #7 also states the same thing. However, no one ever said that the culprit cannot disguise as the detective (which is heavily hinted for ep1~4 battler also), and fooled the rest of the cast.

4. Most troublesome of them all: Furudo Erika is not the culprit.
Couple of possibilties and arugements exists:

#1 Furudo Erika is not the culprit "right now". Similar to Ronove's arugument in ura-tea party, just reverse the timing. Again, red text is often not limited by the time. Furudo Erika isn't the culprit when she just showed up makes sense: she hasn't killed anyone yet.

#2 Furudo Erika and the "Erika" who showed up on Rokkenjima are not the same person.

As argued, Erika isn't complete off the hook. Perhaps no one is ever off the hook unless they died before the game happened (then you get the whole legacy-murder possiblity).

#2 Furudo Erika and the "Erika" who showed up on Rokkenjima are not the same person.

Furudo Erika only increased the head count by one
And I'll admit that I don't like the idea and would view it as mostly a cop-out to label her. The two witches do seem to view everything as one giant game, with appropriate moves like bringing in Ange and Erika between the various games. Due to that, I do in fact view Erika as a newcomer and hence count her out.

That said, a question I have about her:

Spoiler for Erika and Shkanon:

Does Erika ever see the two of them at the same time? I just wanted to confirm it for good so that theory can be completely killed off.

Furudo Erika only increased the head count by one
And I'll admit that I don't like the idea and would view it as mostly a cop-out to label her. The two witches do seem to view everything as one giant game, with appropriate moves like bringing in Ange and Erika between the various games. Due to that, I do in fact view Erika as a newcomer and hence count her out.

That said, a question I have about her:

Spoiler for Erika and Shkanon:

Does Erika ever see the two of them at the same time? I just wanted to confirm it for good so that theory can be completely killed off.

I think there's a scene in Ep. 5 with everyone in the same room. None is missing.

Also Antera Caramichael, aout what you said on the chapel key...

Spoiler for Episode 2:

Like you said, the key had to be given before a certain time. However, this doesn't change the fact that as long as the real key is given before the time, the red truth isn't violated.

As for what is entrusted... Who said a second letter with the real key wasn't given later? As I said before, the time when the real key was given was never specified. When Battler asked her if what was given Maria was the real key, he also asked to specify midday in red. But Beatrice never said that word in red.

And now, about the murder itself... Aren't the killing blows strange? There's no way the six were together awake when it happened. Since there's no other visible wound, the killer had to open them one by one. And since there's no sign of struggle either (6 vs 1? One would have escaped for sure if it was the case) in the chapel, they had to be drugged at the very least.

And let's not forget all six have been declared in red to be real victims.

__________________

I hate sad and bittersweet endings. Why? Because I think the real world is sad enough as it is. Must our stories be sad too?

Before anyone say anything:
Yes, I know about the red texts. Yes, I know about Knox #1&7. Yes, I know ura-tea party heavily hints that Battler is the one did it.

Spoiler for Intro:

Furudo Erika, new character of ep5. Mysterious, suspicious, with a dash of cuteness on the side. Berun's piece, an "intellectual rapist". A guest and detective of Rokkenjima, managed to help solve the epitaph, pinned Natushi into a corner, gamemaster of the board for a very short while.

Spoiler for Suspicious nature:

1. Furudo Erika showed up out of no where; could've been parachuted in by family memeber/servants.

2. Seems to know when and where the murders would happen. I know it's "natural" for murders to occur near the detective, but you don't read one where the detective pinpoints and eliminate possibilities of outside influences. Furude Erika pratically camped in the guest house waiting for the murder, why not camp in the main building?

3. Seems to pinpoint Natushi and branded her as the culprit, which reflected in some of her actions throughout the story. Either she was there to pin the crime on Natushi, or that "impersonation killing" theory is really in place.

Spoiler for red text defence:

First let's look at the red text defending her position.

古戸ヱリカは、これまでのベアトのゲームに影響を与えない。
これまでの世界には存在しないし、影響も与えないわ。

by Berun.

Basically states that Furudo Erika did not exist, and did not influence Beato's game so far (ep1~4). Fair enough, a person who never showed up shouldn't be the culprit anyway (using Knox's rules) So it's impossible for her to be responsible for ep1-4. However, what about ep5? Who said she can't do something? Just look at how shady Berun and LD is together. Ah yes, another limitation on ep5:

Dlanor's red text basically recites the same thing as No.1, that detectives are forbiddened to be the culprit. Rule #1 states that culprits cannot be someone who's new to the story.

Spoiler for serious analysis and speculation of the possibility:

First, I have to say that, there isn't alot of solid proof. You aren't going to see things like "Erika killed Krauss becuase Krauss owed Erika lots of money". Most of the counter arguements are just " it's possible that, considering all other elements, that Erika...". In other words, alot are just probatio diabolica.

Intent and conduct.

Intent: The obvious "perhaps she's the 'man from 19 years ago'". No one ever stated that the baby that fell down the cliff is male or female. Or perhaps it's just Berun's way of finishing the game early: kill off a bunch of people, frame Natushi, get it over with.

Conduct: Erika actually have the weakest alibi of them all: she has no alibi what-so-ever, beside the "detective cannot be culprit" thing. So if there's a way around that, then she would be the most suspious of the cast of ep5.

1. The statement stating that Erika is not a factor in the Beato's games.
Ep5 isn't Beato's game. It's LD's. That means, there's no guarantee that she's not a factor in ep5.

2. Knox rule #1, newcomers cannot be culprits.
The arugments are heavily based on the events happened on Rokkenjima, not meta. Therefore, it's the same arugment as no.1. First, it's LD's story. Second, all episodes are unique on its own: they start and end on as its own epsiode. It's actually strange to think that the whole ep1~5 (except the meta part) is one giant story in continuation. Therefore, nothing strange for Erika, who was introduced early in the story (at least well before the murders), to be the culprit.

3. The statement stating that detective cannot be culprits.
Knox rule #7 also states the same thing. However, no one ever said that the culprit cannot disguise as the detective (which is heavily hinted for ep1~4 battler also), and fooled the rest of the cast.

4. Most troublesome of them all: Furudo Erika is not the culprit.
Couple of possibilties and arugements exists:

#1 Furudo Erika is not the culprit "right now". Similar to Ronove's arugument in ura-tea party, just reverse the timing. Again, red text is often not limited by the time. Furudo Erika isn't the culprit when she just showed up makes sense: she hasn't killed anyone yet.

#2 Furudo Erika and the "Erika" who showed up on Rokkenjima are not the same person.

As argued, Erika isn't complete off the hook. Perhaps no one is ever off the hook unless they died before the game happened (then you get the whole legacy-murder possiblity).

Spoiler for episode5:

Frankly if it wasn't for that "Erika isn't the culprit" I wouldn't think twice: Erika is the culprit. This would be the only way to explain realistically her behavior. However that still wouldn't explain everyone else's behavior. Why didn't player Battler objected that the assassin could be Erika? Why didn't he objected that the assassin could be Krauss? Why didn't he objected that the assassin could be Kinzo? There's no way to logically explain the preposterous game created by Lambda. The game pieces act as if they are aware of the metaworld or as if they are manipulated by a superior force (like when Battler tries to stop Erika from examining the corpses).
This ep5 left me with 2 possibilities:

1) The game board is completely fake
2) Magic can work on the real world

Furudo Erika only increased the head count by one
And I'll admit that I don't like the idea and would view it as mostly a cop-out to label her. The two witches do seem to view everything as one giant game, with appropriate moves like bringing in Ange and Erika between the various games. Due to that, I do in fact view Erika as a newcomer and hence count her out.

That said, a question I have about her:

Spoiler for Erika and Shkanon:

Does Erika ever see the two of them at the same time? I just wanted to confirm it for good so that theory can be completely killed off.

1. Like I said, while meta is one giant game, the "real life" portion isn't. Just as the deaths and order aren't related to each other. Besides, it's the first time LD set up as the gamemaster of the board.

2. Furudo Erika increasing count doesn't matter. Furudo Erika (meta) doesn't have to be the same as Furudo Erika (real world). Just like meta-Battler doesn't necessary equal to real life Battler, even in ep1~4.

Side: Shannon=Kanon theory is still alive. I've already aruged it about 10 pages back. It even got a bit bigger becuase of the analysis of the red text regarding Shannon and autumn.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Jan-Poo

Spoiler for episode5:

Frankly if it wasn't for that "Erika isn't the culprit" I wouldn't think twice: Erika is the culprit. This would be the only way to explain realistically her behavior. However that still wouldn't explain everyone else's behavior. Why didn't player Battler objected that the assassin could be Erika? Why didn't he objected that the assassin could be Krauss? Why didn't he objected that the assassin could be Kinzo? There's no way to logically explain the preposterous game created by Lambda. The game pieces act as if they are aware of the metaworld or as if they are manipulated by a superior force (like when Battler tries to stop Erika from examining the corpses).
This ep5 left me with 2 possibilities:

1) The game board is completely fake
2) Magic can work on the real world

Any other interpretation isn't rational.

Because Berun is in control of piece-Battler from time to time (smart comments and support of Erika), and LD also controls piece-Battler from time to time (Kinzo's study)

If "Shannon=Kanon " theory is real, what does it affect the story? (Number of people change??)

P.S. You can give me a link to this theory's detail (I'm never read about this theory)

Well, it's a crack theory from Umineko's early days, (aka around EP2) that pretty much argues Shannon and Kanon are the same person. It didn't become popular until EP3 when the person limit was introduced.

Not only do Shannon and Kanon look oddly alike, (same facial structure) until EP5, Battler had never seen them in the same room. Since Erika's POV is the only one to be trusted in EP5, though, Ryukishi did a thing with them in the same room from Battler's POV as a red herring xDDD

Basically, the theory is Shannon\Kanon doesn't exist or died so Kanon\Shannon dresses up as them. It would lower the person limit and give way for a Person X, but it would also ruin our canon ships. xDD

Because Berun is in control of piece-Battler from time to time (smart comments and support of Erika), and LD also controls piece-Battler from time to time (Kinzo's study)

Yeah, and how that isn't magic? How do you explain people being controlled by supernatural entities from an anti-fantasy perspective?
From an anti-fantasy perspective you can't say that, you need to imagine they did all those things by their own will, but those behaviors are completely at odd with rationality.

Yeah, and how that isn't magic? How do you explain people being controlled by supernatural entities from an anti-fantasy perspective?
From an anti-fantasy perspective you can't say that, you need to imagine they did all those things by their own will, but those behaviors are completely at odd with rationality.

Not necessarily.
Let's say that a nearly infinite number of kakera exist, each with a different possibility. If the witches have some leeway to choose which kakera the games take place in, then they can "control" certain actions as long as those actions could possibly be logically consistent. Though the characters' behaviors might not seem consistent at a glance, there could be hidden factors and missing scenes that explain most of them.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Jan-Poo

Spoiler for episode5:

Frankly if it wasn't for that "Erika isn't the culprit" I wouldn't think twice: Erika is the culprit. This would be the only way to explain realistically her behavior. However that still wouldn't explain everyone else's behavior. Why didn't player Battler objected that the assassin could be Erika? Why didn't he objected that the assassin could be Krauss? Why didn't he objected that the assassin could be Kinzo? There's no way to logically explain the preposterous game created by Lambda. The game pieces act as if they are aware of the metaworld or as if they are manipulated by a superior force (like when Battler tries to stop Erika from examining the corpses).
This ep5 left me with 2 possibilities:

1) The game board is completely fake
2) Magic can work on the real world

Any other interpretation isn't rational.

Well, I don't think it's quite that simple. Again, remember what Ronove said at the beginning about this game "having no love".
Put that together with my meta world theory. There's a chance that Ronove was referring to the large number of "falsehoods" in EP5. That means there's likely to be several scenes that are simply not true (probably every scene where pieces talk to the Meta World). However, I'm pretty sure that a huge part of the game is at least close to the truth, or Ryuukishi wouldn't have made a core arc out of it.

Here's a bit of my crazy theory to try and explain Erika's actions in EP5. Again, just a theory. (Sorry it's a bit rushed, busy with translation stuff)

Spoiler for Erika is the 'culprit' theory:

"Frankly if it wasn't for that "Erika isn't the culprit" I wouldn't think twice: Erika is the culprit. This would be the only way to explain realistically her behavior."

I think you're exactly right. Erika planned to kill four people and use her getup as a detective to pin the murders on Battler.
She probably knew the answer to the riddle before coming to the island, but realized that the odds of an outsider getting the gold by solving the epitaph were about zero. Kinzo's supposed 'will' where he left the inheritance and the gold to the discoverer was never written down, so Kinzo's children would almost certainly never let an outsider get their hands on those. With the other siblings' money crisis, Erika could probably get their support, but Krauss would almost certainly win the legal battle (this is Erika assuming Kinzo is alive).

Solve the riddle along with Battler. Kill some people and frame Battler with an elaborate closed room, then spectacularly solve the case. Then claim the gold since Battler is no longer a worthy candidate. (And maybe she's tried to kill Krauss by now)

By this point, the siblings have practically decided that Battler should be the next head. With Battler removed from the equation, it all goes into limbo. Since everyone is confused, in debt to Erika, and has already agreed that the gold's discoverer should be head, she's in a much, much better position than she was before.

Or, for all we know, she plans to kill everyone and tries to frame Battler and then Natsuhi to confuse everyone.

Spoiler for how to beat the red:

Erika is the detective. The detective cannot be the culprit. So Erika isn't the culprit.

In other words, Erika didn't commit any of the murders...but that doesn't mean she didn't try. She either tried and failed, perhaps by cutting the throats on the 4 fake guesthouse corpses, or was working with the real culprit. I prefer the former, since the latter might technically make her an accomplice.

__________________

"The only moral it is possible to draw from this story is that one should never throw the letter 'q' into a privet bush. But, unfortunately, there are times when it is unavoidable."
--Hitchhikers

Not necessarily.
Let's say that a nearly infinite number of kakera exist, each with a different possibility. If the witches have some leeway to choose which kakera the games take place in, then they can "control" certain actions as long as those actions could possibly be logically consistent. Though the characters' behaviors might not seem consistent at a glance, there could be hidden factors and missing scenes that explain most of them.

I understand the theory, if there is an infinite number of kakera you can find one where something very odd happens. However we already have a very unusual kakera where a 12 years old girl survives after falling from a leisure boat, and even though there was a typhoon, she managed to swim to Rokkenjima. Considering that Kawabata thinks that is absolutely insane to try to sail with a boat in such conditions I can't imagine what would he say about swimming in the same scenario with the body of a middle school girl. There is only one word to describe this: miracle. Of course it's Bernkastel behind all this, so a miracle (when the definition of miracle is something with an incredibly low percentage to happen) can happen.

But low probabilities multiply themselves, so if you add to this miracle another miracle, it goes way beyond the "miracle" itself. I't like one quadrillionth * one quadrillionth * one quadrillionth * one quadrillionth. Too many miracles.

It is more probable that we have been shown a lot of fake things, even when Battler was present. I wouldn't exclude that Erika didn't fall from a leisure boat at all, and she's been on the island for a while waiting for the right opportunity.

however the problem at this point is: is there a pow that is reliable in ep5? If there isn't any it is nor far from saying that the whole gameboard is fake.

I am seriously starting to think that the gameboards while they are bound to some rules that tie them to the reality, aren't real themselves. there's only one real scenario which is the one shown in ep1, all the rest is just Beato's world, the red truths work as long as they match with the scenario of the gameboards, which by rules forbids to create murders done via magic.

It is more probable that we have been shown a lot of fake things, even when Battler was present. I wouldn't exclude that Erika didn't fall from a leisure boat at all, and she's been on the island for a while waiting for the right opportunity.

however the problem at this point is: is there a pow that is reliable in ep5? If there isn't any it is nor far from saying that the whole gameboard is fake.

I am seriously starting to think that the gameboards while they are bound to some rules that tie them to the reality, aren't real themselves. there's only one real scenario which is the one shown in ep1, all the rest is just Beato's world, the red truths work as long as they match with the scenario of the gameboards, which by rules forbids to create murders done via magic.

Spoiler for chessboard theory:

I disagree, for the most part, although everything you've said is perfectly reasonable.

Remember back after EP2, when Ryuukishi said he figured EP2 turned out to be too "hard" for most people? I think the reason a lot of people stop trying to find theories when they reach that game is because they don't use chessboard thinking, and Ryuukishi was hoping that they would.

The question is why did Ryuukishi show us this game? If we're willing to take a leap of faith and assume that since Ryuukishi is a good author, he won't make a game where reasoning is completely pointless (especially when he says that he's extremely satisfied with how the game turned out), then where does that lead us?

Thinking about it that way, it is almost impossible for EP5 to be completely and arbitrarily fake. As we know from Higurashi, there's a reason behind almost every little thing Ryuukishi does. Even when he shows fake scenes, there is usually a hint that comes along with it.

Because of this, I think the number of fake things we've been shown is relatively small, even in EP5. In fact, my guess is that there are only 2 or 3 reoccurring falsehoods outside of the Meta scenes.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Jan-Poo

Spoiler for episode5:

I understand the theory, if there is an infinite number of kakera you can find one where something very odd happens. However we already have a very unusual kakera where a 12 years old girl survives after falling from a leisure boat, and even though there was a typhoon, she managed to swim to Rokkenjima. Considering that Kawabata thinks that is absolutely insane to try to sail with a boat in such conditions I can't imagine what would he say about swimming in the same scenario with the body of a middle school girl. There is only one word to describe this: miracle. Of course it's Bernkastel behind all this, so a miracle (when the definition of miracle is something with an incredibly low percentage to happen) can happen.

But low probabilities multiply themselves, so if you add to this miracle another miracle, it goes way beyond the "miracle" itself. I't like one quadrillionth * one quadrillionth * one quadrillionth * one quadrillionth. Too many miracles.

Spoiler for like in the tanabata tip...:

First off, if you're really choosing at will among infinite kakera, then you could "choose" something with a 1/10 probability just as easily as something with a 1/10^100 probability, assuming you can find it. This is probably what Bernkastel's ability is all about. Remember how they say she can make any miracle occur, but she also says "miracles won't occur, that's why they're miracles"? I think what this means is that she can find a kakera where the miracle does occur, but she's unable to change existing kakera. Therefore, she can pick the right kakera to grant any miracle, but can't help someone stuck in a normal kakera.

If this is the case, then there's no such thing as "too much of a miracle".

Spoiler for is it really that unlikely?:

I think it's possible to make an argument that very few of the events in EP5 are actually astronomically unlikely. If you follow my "Erika=fail culprit" theory, then she was planning to land on the island that day anyways. Since the only confirmation we really had that Erika fell off a leisure boat comes from a somewhat vague Coast Guard report, and one which was delivered by Genji, the most accomplished liar on the island, for all we know, she just walked onto the island beforehand and waited for the rain to start pouring. She or someone else could easily have bribed Genji or the people he talked to.

__________________

"The only moral it is possible to draw from this story is that one should never throw the letter 'q' into a privet bush. But, unfortunately, there are times when it is unavoidable."
--Hitchhikers

I disagree, for the most part, although everything you've said is perfectly reasonable.

Remember back after EP2, when Ryuukishi said he figured EP2 turned out to be too "hard" for most people? I think the reason a lot of people stop trying to find theories when they reach that game is because they don't use chessboard thinking, and Ryuukishi was hoping that they would.

The question is why did Ryuukishi show us this game? If we're willing to take a leap of faith and assume that since Ryuukishi is a good author, he won't make a game where reasoning is completely pointless (especially when he says that he's extremely satisfied with how the game turned out), then where does that lead us?

Thinking about it that way, it is almost impossible for EP5 to be completely and arbitrarily fake. As we know from Higurashi, there's a reason behind almost every little thing Ryuukishi does. Even when he shows fake scenes, there is usually a hint that comes along with it.

Because of this, I think the number of fake things we've been shown is relatively small, even in EP5. In fact, my guess is that there are only 2 or 3 reoccurring falsehoods outside of the Meta scenes.

Spoiler for Episode5:

Well I can't debate on the fact that Ryukishi really gave a strong message with ep5: "this story is solvable", "reasoning is possible". And he also added a not so subtle message: "refrain from devising crazy theories". He went as far as to say "(This is not Higurashi), there isn't any "hinamizawa syndrome" there isn't any "yamainu special corp".

In fact you could say that in Higurashi Ryukishi broke several Knox rules, and because of that people thought it was quite possible that Ryukishi would do the same for Umineko, even I thought that.

It is funny how ep5 focuses on something that was foretold on the very introduction of Umineko

However what I'm saying is not that this game is completely misleading. This game was created by Beatrice, and Beatrice's purpose is not to make Battler believe in witches, it was designed to make Battler get to the truth. In other words there are rules that make it so the gameboard must be solvable in the same way the first story was solvable. When Lambda took over, she couldn't broke the rules set by Beatrice, but she could manipulate some elements in a way the solution was almost impossible to be found. Kinda like the same way Bern warped the red truth to get to a completely false statement.

There is also what Dlanor said: "You can't make a piece do something that it can't do". Frankly I trust Dlanor more than Bernkastel. So when Bern said that piece Battler solved the riddle only because she was playing him, it's not true. According to Dlanor Battler does have the potential to solve the riddle.

With such premises it isn't really important that the gameboard is in the real world or in a magic world. As long as it helps Battler (and us) to get to the truth.

Anyway clearly if you think the gameboards are in the real world, then you need to accept a certain degree of "magic", because traveling between kakera and or resetting time is not possible. But if you think the gameboards are in a fantasy/metaphysical world, then it isn't magic at all.

Beside, everyone is assuming that the "time loop" in Umineko is the same as in Higurashi. But is it really so? Traveling through kakera is Bern's ability, was it ever said that Beatrice has that power? Beatrice is witch of endless, but at this point I'm almost certain that Beatrice's power is the power of imagination. In her world, what is imagined get materialized. However if the means to imagine are destroyed in the real world, they get destroyed even in her world. Maria couldn't imagine Sakutaro was still alive, because of the trauma she experienced. With the imagination you can get everything you want, you can get all the friends you want, you can have happyness. But imagination can also be used to "kill" someone you hate, and then kill him again again and again until you are satisfied. When certain conditions are recreated, the imagination can become delusion, it crosses the boundary of a single person and spreads to other people. That is what happened with Kinzo, and also the legend of the witch.
Virigilia called magic a "white lie", Dlanor said this "magic" isn't necessarily bad, but it can be used for evil purposes.

Now if this is really Beatrice's power, then the time reset doesn't really happen, it's just Beatrice's imagination, there's no way for her to reset time or travel kakera.

There is also what Dlanor said: "You can't make a piece do something that it can't do". Frankly I trust Dlanor more than Bernkastel. So when Bern said that piece Battler solved the riddle only because she was playing him, it's not true. According to Dlanor Battler does have the potential to solve the riddle.

Spoiler for .:

Unless this "Battler" isn't the normal "Battler".
Also, let's say that the real Battler had a 1/10^10 chance of solving the riddle. In that case, Bern would be right in saying that she caused him to solve it (or at least almost infinitely close to right) by choosing the correct kakera instead of leaving it to chance. In other words, she's stretching the truth by only the slightest of margins, and in a way that isn't measurable by human means.

Also, it's possible that Battler only solved the riddle because of Erika's help, and if we assume that Bern threw Erika into the game, then she can take a little more credit. (although there was always a possibility of Erika landing on the island by chance)

Quote:

Originally Posted by Jan-Poo

Spoiler for Episode5:

Anyway clearly if you think the gameboards are in the real world, then you need to accept a certain degree of "magic", because traveling between kakera and or resetting time is not possible. But if you think the gameboards are in a fantasy/metaphysical world, then it isn't magic at all.

Spoiler for .:

I don't think you need to accept magic necessarily.
This goes back to what Virgilia said, about technology of the future seeming like magic. For example, some properties of quantum physics seemed so fantastical that even Einstein didn't want to believe in them. For anyone before the last couple centuries, the thought of considering the effects of quantum physics as a rational "science" would be laughable.

Also, if our real universe were a single kakera among many, then it would be almost impossible to prove that fact by definition. For all we know, and will ever know, the existence of "multiple universes" is a simple fact of reality. Also, if these multiple kakera exist, it's a very reasonable Devil's Proof to suggest that "there is some way of traveling between them". Unlike most Devil's Proofs, there's probably a greater likelihood of this statement being correct, judging by the size and complexity of the universe.

In short, simple kakera-switching can fall outside the realm of fantasy and into standard science fiction. The only reason Battler started fighting against fantasy is because he believes that "reason exists in this world". Well, good sci-fi always follows the laws of reason and logic, at least to the limits that they are known at the time of writing.

Edit: Of course, if you subscribe to certain other Kakera theories, you can get a different explanation. It's not necessarily true that each kakera is a different universe.

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"The only moral it is possible to draw from this story is that one should never throw the letter 'q' into a privet bush. But, unfortunately, there are times when it is unavoidable."
--Hitchhikers