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Forum polls: looking grim for OLP in the byelections

Posted by Scott Tribe on July 26, 2013, at 1:05 pm |

New polling done by Forum released today shows the OLP may only be winning 1 seat of the five byelections this August 1:

The Progressive Conservatives are well ahead in two longtime Liberal strongholds — one in Toronto and the other former premier Dalton McGuinty’s Ottawa riding, according to a Forum Research poll…According to the survey of 689 Etobicoke—Lakeshore residents, Holyday has 47 per cent, Toronto city councillor Peter Milczyn, 40 per cent, NDP’s P.C. Choo, 7 per cent, Green candidate Angela Salewsky, 5 per cent and others, 1 per cent.. In Ottawa South, where 631 people were surveyed, 48 per cent supported Young, Fraser had 34 per cent, the NDP’s Bronwyn Funiciello had 12 per cent, Green candidate Taylor Howarth had 5 per cent, and others had 1 per cent

..The poll was conducted by Interactive Voice Response and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points, 19 out of 20 times.

According to Forum, the only lead for the OLP is in the Scarborough riding. The other 2 ridings weren’t polled, but it is generally presumed from earlier polling that the NDP will likely win Windsor, and that the OLP is in big trouble in London West.

The OLP better hope that a) polling is as wrong as it has been in the past 2 provincial elections (AB, BC) or b) the OLP have good get-out-the-vote capability of their supporters in a low turnout by-election.

On the scientific side of things, the by-election results will actually be a good case study as to how accurate Forum’s polling methods are, seeing as they’re the only pollster who’s been consistently polling in these by-election races. Will small local ridings be more accurately measured then a provincial or federal election?