Using data collected from purchase loan applications on residential real estate transactions, the ATTOM Data Solutions Pre-Mover Housing Index is based on the ratio of homes with a “pre-mover” flag during a quarter to total homes in a given geography, indexed off the national average. An index above 100 is above the national average and indicates an above-average ratio of homes that will likely be sold in the next 30 to 90 days in a given market (see full methodology below).

The top five markets — among 122 total metro areas analyzed for the report — all posted a pre-mover index above 200, or twice the national average. Other markets in the top 10 for highest pre-mover index in the second quarter were Tampa-St. Petersburg, Florida (198); Kingsport-Bristol, Tennessee (195); Lancaster, Pennsylvania (191); Jacksonville, Florida (189); and Charleston, South Carolina (188).

Among the same 122 metro areas analyzed for the report, those with the lowest pre-mover indices in the second quarter were San Francisco, California (31); Rochester, New York (32); Honolulu, Hawaii (36); Providence, Rhode Island (44); and Grand Rapids, Michigan (46).

“Markets with a healthy mix of access to good jobs and relatively affordable housing attracted the most interest from pre-movers in the second quarter, a harbinger of strong home sales activity in the third quarter,” said Daren Blomquist, senior vice president at ATTOM Data Solutions. “Meanwhile in some of the nation’s hottest housing markets, there was more pre-mover interest in outlying counties further away from jobs but with more affordable homes to purchase. We see this pattern playing out in places like Denver, New York, Seattle, and Southern California.”

Top pre-mover counties more affordable, have lower unemployment rates

Out of 309 U.S. counties analyzed for the report, 189 posted a pre-mover index above the national average in the second quarter. The average June unemployment rate in those 189 counties was 4.2 percent, compared to an average unemployment rate of 4.5 percent in the 120 counties that posted a pre-mover index below the national average in the second quarter.

The average percentage of wages needed to buy a median priced home in the 189 counties with an above-average pre-mover index was 38.0 percent compared to 42.0 percent of wages on average needed to buy a median-priced home in the 120 counties with a pre-mover index below the national average.

“We have noticed an increasing phenomena of the use of reverse mortgages, as well as increasing inventory of single family home rentals, indicating that more homeowners are holding on to their current homes rather than moving up or downsizing,” said Michael Mahon, president at First Team Real Estate, covering the Southern California housing market, where the most affordable county (Riverside) posted the highest pre-mover index and the least affordable county (Orange) posted the lowest pre-mover index in the second quarter. “Consumers are leveraging home equity into cash for retirement, as well as into purchases of single family home rentals — often in other parts of the state or country where home prices are less expensive and the investment returns are better.”

The average home value of homes pursued by pre-movers in the 189 counties with an above-average pre-mover index was $279,863 compared to an average home value of $306,802 in the 120 counties with a pre-mover index below the national average.

“The modest increase in the pre-mover index for the Seattle-area counties is unsurprising given the robust demand for housing in the area; that said, the data shows greater growth in the index for Snohomish and Pierce Counties relative to the central King County market,” said Matthew Gardner, chief economist at Windermere Real Estate, covering the Seattle market. “I believe this offers further affirmation that home prices close to Seattle are getting beyond the reach of many would-be buyers who are now being forced to look further afield to find suitable housing.”

Counties with highest and lowest pre-mover indices in Q2 2017

Among 309 U.S. counties analyzed for the report with at least 50,000 single family homes and condos and sufficient pre-mover data, those with the highest pre-mover indices in the second quarter of 2017 were led by two counties in the Washington, D.C. metro area: Loudon County, Virginia (369); and Prince William County, Virginia (358); followed by Forsyth County, Georgia, in the Atlanta metro area (317); and two suburban “collar” counties in the Chicago metro area: Will County, Illinois (311); and Du Page County, Illinois (277).

“The larger markets in Ohio, such as the Columbus market and greater Cincinnati market, are seeing higher-than-normal sales,” said Matthew Watercutter, senior regional vice president and broker of record for HER Realtors, covering the Dayton, Columbus and Cincinnati markets in Ohio, all of which posted pre-mover indices above the national average in the second quarter even though the state as a whole posted a pre-mover index below the national average. “These markets are more urban in nature, and are attracting many millennials as the job markets are improving throughout these areas.”

Among the 309 counties analyzed in the report, those with the lowest pre-mover indices in the second quarter were Queens County, New York (30); Wayne County, Michigan in the Detroit metro area (30); Honolulu County, Hawaii (36); Monroe County, New York in the Rochester metro area (39); and Kings County (Brooklyn), New York (41).

Highest share of second home pre-movers in Ocean City and Naples

Among the 309 counties analyzed for the report, those with the highest share of pre-movers interested in purchasing second homes were Cape May County, New Jersey in the Ocean City metro area (44.7 percent); Collier County, Florida in the Naples metro area (32.2 percent); Brunswick County, North Carolina in the Myrtle Beach metro area (30.7 percent); Sussex County, Delaware in the Salisbury metro area (23.2 percent); and Beaufort County, South Carolina in the Hilton Head metro area (22.9 percent).

Highest share of investment home pre-movers in Memphis and Kansas City

Among the 309 counties analyzed for the report, those with the highest share of pre-movers interested in purchasing investment homes were Shelby County, Tennessee in the Memphis metro area (46.4 percent); Jackson County, Missouri in the Kansas City metro area (20.2 percent); Hudson County, New Jersey in the New York metro area (16.4 percent); Jefferson County, Alabama in the Birmingham metro area (16.4 percent); and Marion County, Indiana in the Indianapolis metro area 15.7 percent).

Report methodology
Using data collected from purchase loan applications on residential real estate transactions, the ATTOM Data Solutions Pre-Mover Housing Index is based on the ratio of homes with a “pre-mover” flag to total homes in a given geography, indexed off the national average. Any index above 100 is above the national average and indicates an above-average ratio of homes that will likely be sold in the next 30 to 90 days in a given market. Historical pre-mover data going back to Q1 2014 shows that 59 percent of homes with a pre-mover flag sell within 30 days of the estimated loan settlement date that is provided in the pre-mover data, and 76 percent sell within 90 days of that settlement date.

About ATTOM Data SolutionsATTOM Data Solutions is the curator of the ATTOM Data Warehouse, a multi-sourced national property database that blends property tax, deed, mortgage, foreclosure, environmental risk, natural hazard, health hazards, neighborhood characteristics and other property characteristic data for more than 150 million U.S. residential and commercial properties. The ATTOM Data Warehouse delivers actionable data to businesses, consumers, government agencies, universities, policymakers and the media in multiple ways, including bulk file licenses, APIs and customized reports.

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ATTOM Data Solutions is a leading provider of publicly recorded tax, deed, mortgage and foreclosure data along with proprietary neighborhood and parcel-level risk data for more than 155 million U.S. properties.