39th Congressional District race gets nasty

Jay Chen is the Democratic challenger in the race for the 39th Congressional District, where Rep. Ed Royce, R-Fullerton is seeking reelection. COURTESY OF CHEN FOR CONGRESS

Nasty ads are flooding the 39th Congressional District with such ferocity that you'd think Rep. Ed Royce, R-Fullerton, has a serious fight on his hands. He's an incumbent in a district where the GOP has an 8-point advantage and his Democratic opponent's highest elected office is Hacienda-La Puente School Board trustee. Could it really be a contest?

The attack ads are vicious but standard fare, at least for a tightly fought race. The Democrat, Jay Chen, is accused, among other things, of supporting a tax on wheelchairs used by seniors. The logic? The Affordable Care Act includes a new tax for medical device manufacturers and Chen supports the act. Chen responds that the act requires insurers to cover the cost of wheelchairs, so there's no direct cost to patients.

The attacks on Royce include, among other things, the claim that he wants to charge seniors $6,400 more for Medicare. The unexplained logic? Royce has backed Paul Ryan's proposed Medicare reform and some analysts say it could cost seniors around $6,400 more – beginning in 2022. Republicans say competition will lower costs, not raise them.

As of Friday, America Shining, the group attacking Royce and backing Chen, had spent $406,000 in independent expenditures on ads in English and Chinese. And Royce is dipping deep into his $2 million-plus war chest to return fire, attacking both Chen and America Shining.

"We don't know where the (America Shining) money is coming from or how much there is," said Dave Gilliard, Royce's longtime consultant. "So we're taking this seriously. How does Jay Chen win? He won't, but Ed Royce is famous for not taking campaigns for granted, so we're campaigning aggressively."

ASIAN AMERICAN VOTE

The newly formed, San Francisco-based America Shining is indeed a bit mysterious: None of its donors has been disclosed and the only campaign it's involved with is the Royce-Chen contest. Its website has no content, simply linking to a Facebook page with a brief, largely generic description and postings of ads it has run. Phone calls to the listed number were not returned.

One telling bit of information on the Facebook page is that the group has "a particular interest in Asian American candidates." Gilliard said his analysis showed that America Shining mailings were going to about 65,000 households in the district, which straddles Orange, Los Angeles and San Bernardino counties. Of those homes, 35,000 have registered voters who are Asian American, he said.

The potential Asian vote is significant – 24 percent of the voting-age citizens in the district are Asian, about half of them Chinese American. Could that carry the day for Chen, the Harvard-educated son of Taiwanese immigrants?

Unlikely, says Scott Lay, who tracks election data. He points to Democratic state Controller John Chiang's successful re-election bid against Republican Tony Strickland in 2010. Chiang is also the son of Taiwanese immigrants. In what is now the 39th Congressional District, Chiang lost to the Republican by 9 points.

"In other words, there was no discernable bump for Chiang from the large Asian-American population," Lay wrote in one of his The Nooner newsletters recently. (Sign up for the free daily emails at his Around the Capitol website.)

DEMOGRAPHIC SHIFT

But Lay also makes the point that demographics are likely to build Democrats' momentum in the district. That was likely on Royce's mind as he prepared to move to Orange during the 2011 redistricting process, when it appeared that an incumbent-less, more Republican inland Orange County district would be created. However, the final maps included no such district and Royce stayed put.

As immigrant communities become more established in the area, their voter participation will increase. Democrat-leaning Latinos, who are one-third of the population but just 22 percent of the voting-age citizens, will gain more political power as the minors reach age 18 – and if there is immigration reform to legalize those in the country illegally.

"Nevertheless, I don't see the district in play this year," Lay wrote.

Jay Chen is the Democratic challenger in the race for the 39th Congressional District, where Rep. Ed Royce, R-Fullerton is seeking reelection. COURTESY OF CHEN FOR CONGRESS
Rep. Ed Royce, R-Fullerton, is the incumbent in the 39th Congressional District. REGISTER FILE PHOTO

1 of

User Agreement

Keep it civil and stay on topic. No profanity, vulgarity, racial
slurs or personal attacks. People who harass others or joke about
tragedies will be blocked. By posting your comment, you agree to
allow Orange County Register Communications, Inc. the right to
republish your name and comment in additional Register publications
without any notification or payment.