TJ Hockenson Lands In Strong Fantasy Spot With Matt Patricia’s Lions

Now that Rob Gronkowski has retired, we’re going to have to hear every year about which guy is the “next Gronk.” Truthfully, nobody will ever really be the next Gronk, but in the 2019 draft class, TJ Hockenson is the safest bet. In a season in which he took home the Mackey Award for the nation’s top tight end, Hockenson caught 49 passes for 760 yards and 6 TDs, all on an Iowa team that ran the ball on almost 53% of their snaps in the defense-happy Big 10. The Gronk comparisons don’t just stem from Hockenson’s superb athleticism and great hands — he’s also a fantastic blocker with the ability to physically overpower defensive players at the line of scrimmage. He should step in immediately on a Detroit team that can certainly use a weapon of his caliber.

The Lions did just sign Jesse James to a 4-year, $25 million (11M guaranteed) deal this offseason, which could theoretically interfere with Hockenson’s development. However, Hockenson’s Iowa team used the 12 personnel (1 RB, 2 TE) on 20% of their snaps in 2018 and in the majority of their medium-to-long yardage situations, utilizing the formation as a way to get Hockenson and Noah Fant on the field at the same time. The same formation with James and Hockenson could be a great way to get both guys some reps while integrating the rookie into the pro game, especially early in the 2019 season.

Matt Patricia clearly missed his boy Gronk, as he tried to trade for him last offseason and now used the 8th overall pick to take a guy he hopes will be Gronk 2.0. Patricia has remarked in the days following the draft that the NFL is “always moving towards the tight end position,” adding, “That’s the mismatch everyone’s trying to figure out.” Hockenson may not be the next Gronk right away, but his head coach clearly plans on giving him the opportunity to be the weapon that the Lions — and fantasy owners — think he can be.

Bottom Line: Pass-catching specialist, who? Christian McCaffrey returned to his college workhorse roots under new OC Norv Turner, and quickly put up Fantasy MVP-worthy numbers. He continued to flash his otherworldly receiving abilities, hauling in an NFL record 106 catches for 875 yards and 6 TDs. Yet where the usage really rose was the carries, as McCaffrey nearly doubled his 2017 total for 215 carries, 1080 yards, and 7 scores. These 321 total touches ranked third behind only Ezekiel Elliott and Saquon Barkley, and this newfound volume created the ultimate ceiling / floor combination. In the process, McCaffrey flashed both the elusiveness, breakaway ability, and most shockingly underrated power to redefine the workhorse model.

​New OC Norv Turner deserves immense credit for this outburst. His previous work with LaDanian Tomlinson proved he wasn't afraid to ride a smaller-back, as he's able to scheme his guys in space and in creative outside gaps versus just blasting them up the gut... but even still, never before had an NFL back played nearly 97% of the team's snaps. Yes, this number inevitably will fall in 2019, but McCaffrey should still hover around 85-90%, especially with Turner returning. Expect a similar buffet of weekly volume with the upside for even more efficiency should the Panthers beef up their line while their explosive young wideouts take a next step forward.

Ceiling Projection: 320 touches (100 rec.), 2,000 Tot. Yds, 13 TDs

Floor Projection*: 270 touches (70 rec.), 1600 Tot. Yds, 7 TDs

Actual Projection: 310 touches (90 rec), 1900 Tot. Yds, 12 TDs

*Note - Floors are done without injuries in mind. Of course the lowest floor is torn ACL first play of scrimmage. This assumes 16 games