I'll toss in my annual statement - if BP picked the Sox to win the division every year for the past 20 years, regardless of how ridiculously wrong they would be, at least several of the usual group of posters who dismiss their projections would think they were the greatest thing since sliced bread.

I feel this is evidenced by the immediate "no respect" attitude. It is far from a question of respect. In fact, respect has basically nothing to do with it.

You might be right, but most of us would have no doubt their methodology was a joke. I question it because it seems the Sox are always doing better than their BP projecion. Last year they were projected to lose nearly a hundred games. I looked at the roster and I couldn't fathom why that would be, they had good pitching. When's it's off that badly every year I have no choice but the question it's validity.

Yeah, it's the chip on the shoulder mentality. It worked for the 2005 sox, but that was a really good team. The notion that any projection that doesn't have us outright in the thick of things (despite reality) is an affront....is kind of embarrassing, IMO.

so you don't think the Sox above average pitching will at least make them competitive? You don't sound real positive about the season. I think they will be in it at least long enough to make the season and summer interesting. With some health and breaks maybe compete for the wild card . Let's remember the Sox almost always do something to improve the team at the deadline. But this is a new GM .

Come now. It isnt' so much that any individual pitcher on our staff has injury concerns as it is that all of them do and there's no one waiting to step in effectively. At the same time, the pitching is the ONLY strength on the team.

Pitching was our only strength despite us scoring more runs than the Tigers' and our defense being lightyears better than the Tigers'. Right.

Quote:

Originally Posted by blandman

Victor Martinez has been preparing to return for more than a year. The Tigers were smart and didn't rush him. In the meantime, Danks had a procedure in the offseason and is rushing to be ready for opening day. If you can't see the difference there, there's no helping you.

False. August 5th isn't the offseason. And from all accounts, although rare, it was a relatively routine surgery with no complications. Other than a few message-boarders saying he will never be the same just because, I haven't read anything suggesting the surgery could be career altering or anything speculating that six months recovery time before spring training is "rushing it."

Quote:

Originally Posted by blandman

The Sox were 4th in runs scored mainly because:

1. Konerko and Dunn had tremendous first halfs. Injury and reality set in.
2. Rios had a tremendous year, but seems to always follow that up with a terrible year. Betting on him to not hit .240 next year is a risky proposition, at best. He's been just as horrible as good two of the last four years.
3. AJ. Yeah, he wouldn't bring that same production again. But we've replaced our best offensive season last year with a guy that's going to be an offensive black hole.

Not reality, just injuries. Sure, nobody expected Konerko to hit .400, but he shouldn't have fallen off the face of the earth as he did. And Dunn was having a very good season until he injured his oblique. Sure, those guys could get injured again, but so could Victor Martinez. Cabrera had a historic year last season, which nobody would be likely to reproduce. Add into that the fact that he is a drunken fatass. I'd say there's a good chance he will have a few too many Beefeaters and Italian Beefs and either will impact his performance. Prince Fielder's gotta be about 325lbs and his numbers were down noticably from the year before. He's not getting any younger or skinnier. And you can think Flowers' offense will be terrible, that's fine. In another thread you stated he was only hyped because of numbers he put up before a PEDs suspension, despite the fact that he put up those numbers after his suspension at age 20. Flowers has hit well in the majors when he got playing time. Of course, another huge addition is Keppinger. 3B gave us terrible production last year. Even if he puts up a career-average year for him (.288/.337/.396), it will be a gigantic improvement over last season. And that doesn't account for the idea that any of our players could actually improve.

Again, nobody, myself included, cares what you PERSONALLY think about their work. If you think NUMBERS R 4 NERDZ N VIRGINS or that they suck at their job, that's fine, that's a personal opinion that I cannot sway. I am only challenging the notion that BP isn't a relevant entity, which is, again, complete bull****.

If they make irrelevant projections for ****s and giggles, yeah...

Don't get up in arms about people not taking them seriously for being consistently wrong by a wide margin about the Sox, then claim that the projections don't mean anything anyway and others are dumb if they read too much into them. Good models turn out bad results, sure. But if the model is consistently turning out results which are off, even if it's just one team the model underestimates every year, maybe the model sucks.

Pitching was our only strength despite us scoring more runs than the Tigers' and our defense being lightyears better than the Tigers'. Right.

False. August 5th isn't the offseason. And from all accounts, although rare, it was a relatively routine surgery with no complications. Other than a few message-boarders saying he will never be the same just because, I haven't read anything suggesting the surgery could be career altering or anything speculating that six months recovery time before spring training is "rushing it."

Not reality, just injuries. Sure, nobody expected Konerko to hit .400, but he shouldn't have fallen off the face of the earth as he did. And Dunn was having a very good season until he injured his oblique. Sure, those guys could get injured again, but so could Victor Martinez. Cabrera had a historic year last season, which nobody would be likely to reproduce. Add into that the fact that he is a drunken fatass. I'd say there's a good chance he will have a few too many Beefeaters and Italian Beefs and either will impact his performance. Prince Fielder's gotta be about 325lbs and his numbers were down noticably from the year before. He's not getting any younger or skinnier. And you can think Flowers' offense will be terrible, that's fine. In another thread you stated he was only hyped because of numbers he put up before a PEDs suspension, despite the fact that he put up those numbers after his suspension at age 20. Flowers has hit well in the majors when he got playing time. Of course, another huge addition is Keppinger. 3B gave us terrible production last year. Even if he puts up a career-average year for him (.288/.337/.396), it will be a gigantic improvement over last season. And that doesn't account for the idea that any of our players could actually improve.

Paulie's wrist or whatever it was was killing him, and the power went out the window because of it I think . He was being what he is ,a real team player . I like what you said about Flowers, he started doing pretty well with the bat in the power department at the end of the year when he was finally playing somewhat regularly ,like for more than a day or so. Most players are going to underperform when they don't get regular playing time.

Pitching was our only strength despite us scoring more runs than the Tigers' and our defense being lightyears better than the Tigers'. Right.

False. August 5th isn't the offseason. And from all accounts, although rare, it was a relatively routine surgery with no complications. Other than a few message-boarders saying he will never be the same just because, I haven't read anything suggesting the surgery could be career altering or anything speculating that six months recovery time before spring training is "rushing it."

Not reality, just injuries. Sure, nobody expected Konerko to hit .400, but he shouldn't have fallen off the face of the earth as he did. And Dunn was having a very good season until he injured his oblique. Sure, those guys could get injured again, but so could Victor Martinez. Cabrera had a historic year last season, which nobody would be likely to reproduce. Add into that the fact that he is a drunken fatass. I'd say there's a good chance he will have a few too many Beefeaters and Italian Beefs and either will impact his performance. Prince Fielder's gotta be about 325lbs and his numbers were down noticably from the year before. He's not getting any younger or skinnier. And you can think Flowers' offense will be terrible, that's fine. In another thread you stated he was only hyped because of numbers he put up before a PEDs suspension, despite the fact that he put up those numbers after his suspension at age 20. Flowers has hit well in the majors when he got playing time. Of course, another huge addition is Keppinger. 3B gave us terrible production last year. Even if he puts up a career-average year for him (.288/.337/.396), it will be a gigantic improvement over last season. And that doesn't account for the idea that any of our players could actually improve.

Oi. I think Danks will be fine. But recovery from his type of injury, in general, takes more than 365 days before a pitcher is as effective.

Injury is a reality for Konerko.

Your fat argument seems to be based on nothing but your opinion of fat people. Plenty of fat people produce with no trouble. And Cabrera's "historic" season isn't really different from his last few. He's just that good. He's the best right handed hitter in baseball the last few years.

Quote:

Originally Posted by mahagga73

so you don't think the Sox above average pitching will at least make them competitive? You don't sound real positive about the season. I think they will be in it at least long enough to make the season and summer interesting. With some health and breaks maybe compete for the wild card . Let's remember the Sox almost always do something to improve the team at the deadline. But this is a new GM .

It isn't about being positive or negative. We have slightly above average pitching. Our pitching is not as good as the Tigers. Our 1-4 starters all have injury concerns. We have ZERO minor league depth to weather injuries to the rotation. We'd have to have all guys healthy and pitching well all year to be over .500. It's possible. But I'm not going to act like it's likely. That it happens shouldn't be the expectation, because it's pretty darn unlikely. I'm mad at the team, because this is an obvious flaw in their team design. And I get even angrier that people think this is a negative view. It's a damn realistic view. And it sucks.

I'll grant you everything you said about BP and PECOTA projections, but my main objection to them with regard to the Sox is that while realizing that their PECOTA model consistently misses the mark in projecting the Sox' performance, they don't seem to be able (or willing) to adjust accordingly. I think they know what they are doing generally, but I don't think they get how the Sox roster is specifically constructed and managed. At least their consistently-wrong Sox projections indicate such.

I don't think their 2013 projection is anything to get worked up about. They're probably underestimating what the Sox are likely to do, but they're not all that far off the mark. They say 77 wins and this team looks like a .500 team to me.

What I do find interesting, though, is that they've been so wrong about the Sox in so many years going back to 2005. Only twice in the last 8 seasons did they overestimate the Sox win total and those times it was only by a small amount.

Don't get up in arms about people not taking them seriously for being consistently wrong by a wide margin about the Sox, then claim that the projections don't mean anything anyway and others are dumb if they read too much into them. Good models turn out bad results, sure. But if the model is consistently turning out results which are off, even if it's just one team the model underestimates every year, maybe the model sucks.

PECOTA doesn't project in wins and losses so comparing the Sox's record to their PECOTA projection is pointless.

They've been wrong so often in the past (and not by just a game or two but by a relative lot) that I suspect they'll be wrong by a lot again this year.

Not losing any sleep over this anymore.

Let the 'debate' continue on this thread. Am waiting to see Daver chime in.

Lip

What exactly are they 'wrong' about? They are making a prediction based on a lineup that has yet to play a game. They are not stating a fact. If you are taking their projection as the final say as to how the White Sox will perform this season then that's your fault, not theirs.

Their projections are nothing more than opinions using statistical evidence to reach their conclusion.

Actually, despite what you think you know, and your past indicates that it is far less than you believe, playing the games does matter. 2 teams BP projected to finish in last place in their respective divisions in the AL last year made the playoffs. Washington was projected to finish 4th, St.Louis 3rd, SF was projected to finish 2nd. BP had the White Sox finishing behind Cleveland, and these were projections that came out at the end of spring training. And I'm no BP hater. I buy it every year.