What are the odds that two adjacent posts would both use the word "fustian"?
April 20, 2006 7:44 AMSubscribe

This is not a complaint, a bug report, a callout, or a pony-request. It's just funny. Since the two posts apparently were made within a minute of each other, it somehow seems unlikely that Plutor would have seen Splatta's use of the word and said "oh cool, 'fustian,' that's perfect."posted by adamrice at 7:46 AM on April 20, 2006

Three, and it was probably planned in order to get a MeTa thread about it, but maybe I am just being cynical.posted by ND¢ at 7:46 AM on April 20, 2006

They don't really even make sense contextually.posted by joegester at 7:48 AM on April 20, 2006

Cunning, after I posted it occured to me I wasn't completely making sense. Yes, that's more evidence.

What I initially meant (and thought) was that one poster saw the word used and then intentionally used it in their post and the third person thought that funny and did so as well. Time-stamping eliminated that possibility, but makes it pretty clear it was planned. :)posted by dobbs at 8:05 AM on April 20, 2006

1 in 51050.

I don't know what the odds actually are, but I know that's wrong. To figure the odds, I think we'd need to know the frequency in which the word appears in general and the number of words posted to the average post. But I think it's safe to say they are much lower than 1 in 51050.posted by scottreynen at 8:05 AM on April 20, 2006

Except Metafilter is a self-selecting community of users who visit many of the same places on the net (by design), so it's not out of the question. Words get popular for a few months on the web, just like in sixth grade.posted by yerfatma at 8:10 AM on April 20, 2006

All three users appear on the others' contact lists, so this was probably a stunt. Well played.posted by brain_drain at 8:11 AM on April 20, 2006

Back in college, when I was tending bar, whenever somebody would order some time-intensive, froo-froo-ey cocktail like a pink squirrel or a pina colada, I'd end up making three dozen of them that night because everyone else would see it and say, "Hey, that looks good! I think I'll try one of those myself."

My point is that "fustian" is the verbal equivalent of a frothy pina colada.posted by Gamblor at 8:42 AM on April 20, 2006

Community weblog as performance art. Delicious.posted by boo_radley at 8:43 AM on April 20, 2006

- I don't know what the odds actually are, but I know that's wrong. To figure the odds, I think we'd need to know the frequency in which the word appears in general and the number of words posted to the average post. But I think it's safe to say they are much lower than 1 in 51050.

It is pretty common (at least in statistical signal processing) to use any measured data you can find as a model for the distribution of a random variable. As in, a good estimate for the expected value of a signal, in the absence of any other information, is the signal itself.

Of course there are some differences in signal processing that make that approach a little more valid..posted by Chuckles at 9:35 AM on April 20, 2006

So, we've delineated exactly what happened here?posted by interrobang at 10:45 AM on April 20, 2006

Yes, this was done deliberately.

We came up with the seed for this idea almost a year ago. Our first ideas were far more elaborate, and involved puzzles or encryption (which inspired my encrypted FPP) or some sort of inter-linked hints. Since none of us have ever really created a puzzle on this scale before, nor is FPPing any of our full-time jobs, these ideas really didn't get anywhere in particular. We also wanted the posts to all be valid, decent posts in their own rights, too. We didn't want them to get deleted because they were inter-related junk. The other day, all of a sudden, we all seemed to have post topics in mind. Randomly searching for something that could a simple "keyphrase", we came across this word. Not only was it only used once before on all of MetaFilter (is anyone surprised that it was languagehat?), but its autologicality made it seem that much more appropriate.

To answer the original question, I've found these word-frequency lists that indicate that indicates the word should appear once every 769,230th word (1.30 times per million words). The chances that any random 50-word (our average wordcount) FPP would use the word would be roughly 1/15,385. That makes the probability that three consecutive posts would be so fustian-rich by chance 1 in 3,641,602,191,625.posted by Plutor at 10:52 AM on April 20, 2006 [1 favorite]

So it's Fustian Day? Do we exchange gifts? Or beat each other with clubs? There should be some kind of ceremony...

We celebrate with lots of fusting. Be gentle.posted by Gamblor at 11:00 AM on April 20, 2006

A good story, Plutor, and your link to lh's comment lead me on to this letter from Samuel Johnson to James McPherson which was linked in that FPP, and which in tone, if not in substance, fits so well into MeTa that I quote the entirety here (it doesn't really matter what it's about, but you can go to the FPP above to figure it out):

Mr. James Macpherson, ---

I received your foolish and impudent letter. Any violence offered me I shall do my best to repel and what I cannot do for myself, the law shall do for me. I hope I shall not be deterred from detecting what I think a cheat by the menaces of a ruffian.

What would you have me retract? I thought your book an imposture; I think it an imposture still. For this opinion I have given my reasons to the public, which I here dare you to refute. Your rage I defy. Your abilities, since your Homer, are not so formidable: and what I hear of your morals inclines me to pay regard, not to what you shall say, but to what you shall prove. You may print this if you will.

The frequentist approach would use the frequency of the event to calculate its probability. In this case, assuming no prior posts ("samples"), the probability of this happening on the following third post would have been 2/2, or 100%. Since Metafilter is up to 50K posts, and very probably "fustian" does not make it into front page posts all that often, that number will be somewhat smaller.

Let's assume that the last two posts used "fustian" but no one has precise information about its usage frequency prior to that. A Bayesian approach would consider an assumed (if hopefully reasonable) prior expectation of this event, in calculating the probability that a third usage of "fustian" would occur.

For example, if no one can remember seeing "fustian" before, it might be reasonable from prior experience to assume that the distribution of probabilities of double usage should have a very narrow peak at, say, 2 in 51050, trailing off to zero sharply in both directions. With this prior "model", along with your observations, you can calculate a posterior probability that gives you the likelihood of three consecutive fustians.

The process of choosing this prior assumption has lead to a "frequentist-Bayesian" philosophical divide among some statisticians. On this matter, Brad Efron has a number of interesting papers on using empirical data to make Bayesian analysis "more objective".posted by Blazecock Pileon at 11:03 AM on April 20, 2006

*evangelizes Zorofustianism*posted by cortex at 12:21 PM on April 20, 2006

The way to win a battle is to be the fustian with the mostian.posted by George_Spiggott at 12:27 PM on April 20, 2006

Ha. (And I learned something new: I only knew fustian as a cloth.)posted by hattifattener at 12:43 PM on April 20, 2006

Oconomowoc! I went to camp there! Or nearby, at least, at Icaghowan!posted by Astro Zombie at 12:48 PM on April 20, 2006

That's one of those Wisconsin town names that whenever you say it, people accuse you of just making it up on the spot: Oconomowoc, Wonewoc, Menasha, Kaukauna, Wauwatosa, etc.posted by Gamblor at 1:06 PM on April 20, 2006

orders a Run Fustian...

Holy hell, that's not a drink, it's a bad dare.

"If you drank this, it was reported that you didn't need sobering up, you needed resuscitation."

To answer the original question, I've found these word-frequency lists that indicate that indicates the word should appear once every 769,230th word (1.30 times per million words). The chances that any random 50-word (our average wordcount) FPP would use the word would be roughly 1/15,385. That makes the probability that three consecutive posts would be so fustian-rich by chance 1 in 3,641,602,191,625.

I'm probably the only one who was actually waiting for someone to answer that more accurately, so thanks.posted by scottreynen at 1:50 PM on April 20, 2006

The joke is that it was named for an Indian chief, who, after marching hundreds of miles, chose to settle there. When asked why, he replied, "Oconomowoc!" ("I can no more walk.")

And, at our camp, he is said to have added, "Icaghowan." ("I can't go on.")

Having learned that Oconomowoc is a real place, I had to look up the pronunciation; in case anybody else is wondering, the accent is on the second syllable (oh-CON-a-ma-wok). Which is not at all how I was saying it in my head. That postcard makes it look kind of fustian.posted by languagehat at 2:50 PM on April 20, 2006

Metafilter: at least two posts with the word "fustian."posted by maxreax at 5:05 PM on April 20, 2006

Which is not at all how I was saying it in my head.

Oh man! I wuz saying ( OH-Koh-Noh-Moh-Woh-ick.) Much more fun to say it that way, although it is hard to stop on the "Ck."

I'm fussy about how I celebrate Fustian Day; the cupcakes have to be iced with a particular shade of beige. Also, I don't wear a bustle.posted by Secret Life of Gravy at 5:11 PM on April 20, 2006

Hold the perimeter, reinforcements are coming. If only you had all held off on your posts until 13th July.posted by tellurian at 5:35 PM on April 20, 2006

Oconomowoc makes me crave okonomiyaki but not in a fustian way.posted by shoepal at 5:41 PM on April 20, 2006

I'm going to have to remember the amazing derailing power of the word Oconomowoc. But I promise to only use it for good. In a moral relativist kind of way.posted by PinkStainlessTail at 5:42 PM on April 20, 2006

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