Ben- haven't heard much on David Wright lately. How soon is he expected back and what do you expect from him in the 2nd half? Thanks,
Dan(DanDaMan from SeaCliff)

Near as I can tell, Wright will start a rehab assignment this Friday. Terry Collins said he'd need 30 or 40 bush-league at-bats before he's ready to return, so you do the math. I'd expect the usual good things from Wright in the second half, but the Mets should heed Corey Dawkins' warning that the inflammation could return and force another trip to the disabled list, and give him plenty of rest. (Ben Lindbergh)

Every player's a five tool player although some tools are better than others.
That said, let's try for established players, CarGo, Shin-Soo, David Wright, and Nelson Cruz. David Wright, Colby Rasmus, and Chase Utley might qualify.(Bob from Seattle)

Yes siree, Bob! I'll keep that in mind, but mostly I just wanted to say that to someone actually named Bob. (Ben Lindbergh)

I've got an outfield heavy team in an 11 team, standard 5x5 league with 5 keepers (boring, I know). I'm currently thinking David Wright, Matt Kemp, Justin Upton, Justin Verlander and Matt Latos. But I also have Jay Bruce, Colby Rasmus and Cole Hamels as options. I've recently had the skill of kicking ass drafting starting pitching in the 9th-15th rounds, but who knows if that continues... Am I keeping the worst OF in Upton just because of hype? Which five of those eight do you keep?(Adam from Philly)

I would see what you can get in a trade for Upton--I think he turns into something great, but you might find someone who buys him on the hype of his turning into even more. I would keep Bruce over Kemp though. Verlander/Latos is the right call for the SP, thanks to their respective parks. (Marc Normandin)

The Mets should really move their fences in about 10', right? Otherwise, that Jason Bay contract is REALLY gonna smell come 2012 or so.(dianagramr from NYC)

Considering their inability to identify pitchers that can help them out, I would say the fences should be pushed even further back. David Wright can still draw a walk whether the fences are 400 or 500 feet back! (Marc Normandin)

I'm a little more concerned with the number of times I've seen Alex Cora batting second. I follow a lot of Mets fans on Twitter, so when lineups are announced you see a flood of hatred daily. (Marc Normandin)

Wright's "decline" last year was almost entirely the result of his home games, where he went from having a .350ish TAv in 2008-08 to .295 in 2009. I don't think his home numbers are ever going to be that favorable again, so probably not. (Clay Davenport)

How easy is it for you to run queries? For instance, on how players who saw a dramatic drop in HRs after 3 good years fared in Year 5, and how young players who saw a dramatic drop in HRs after 2 years fared in Year 4?(Richie from Washington)

Running an actual query takes no effort as it's a simple Ctrl+Enter or click of the Execute button, but deriving them can be time-consuming and frustrating. Then again, I'm self taught and haven't been an SQLer my entire life. As far as your question regarding other similar drops comparable to what was discussed in my David Wright article, look for a blog post this weekend from me that deals with this very subject. But, to get it out of the way here and now, no, I do not consider Gary Gaetti's TWO years and dropoff to be similar to Wright. A commenter brought up Bobby Murcer, which is a good comp, but the issue with that one is that Murcer fell to -0.11 SDs from the mean in his 5th year whereas Wright was -0.60 SDs; the raw tallies are similar but with context they are far apart. (Eric Seidman)

I will be picking up my BP2010 at the Yogi this Sunday, so forgive this question. David Wright: back on the superstar track in 2010? He certainly looks like a Brick S. House in those NY Post photos.(Tex Premium Lager from NJ)

Thanks for bringing up the Yogi! I'd be remiss if I didn't mention that our tour activities kick off this Sunday. Kevin, Christina, Jay Jaffe, a fat guy with a beard... Who could ask anything more? We're going to be video-ing the activities, too, so bring your best questions, wear funny hats, bring a friend... We'll be in Manhattan the following evening. Check the events page for specific details.

I expect a rebound from Wright, whose problems seemed kind of reminiscent of the aforementioned Bobby Murcer's problems at Shea Stadium -- the park effects got him to think too much, change his swing, with subpar results. Murcer never quite got over it, something he talked about for the rest of his life. Wright has some advantages that Murcer didn't, like easy access to video -- I think he'll bounce back. (Steven Goldman)

Mark- BP is my bible and I took your rankings last year as the Gospel of Marc. After throwing away a keeper slot on Lastings Milledge and trading for David Wright, I picked Corey Hart, Elijah Dukes, Nalasco, Matt Weiters and several other disappointments. Needless to say it wasn't a great season for me. Why should I be more believing this year? Help me restore my faith. Thanks,
Dan
ps feel free to answer this privately if you felt it came across too critical.(dandaman from Sea Cliff)

Nope, this is exactly why I did that review of my rankings, because I felt like you. It seemed like I drafted every major mistake I made, so I wanted to learn from my mistakes to keep it from happening again. I think the 2010 rankings will be better for it. (Marc Normandin)

Eric-thanks for the chat. Alot of people/experts are making David Wright a first round pick in fantasy drafts, but I just don't believe the power will return. Are you still in the Wright camp and why/why not?(raygu1 from burlington, nj)

I'm torn on Wright. I mean, it's fairly unprecedented for such a power decline. Looking in my database, I queried for all hitters with 500+ PA in 5 straight seasons where in the first four 25+ dingers were socked and in the fifth the hitter jacked 20 or fewer homers. Only 10 rows returned, but all of those players sans-Wright managed 15 or more home runs in that fifth year. Alter the minimum and we see that only 2 players--Wright and Frank Thomas from 1995-99--managed 15 or fewer home runs in the final year of the span in this sample. So, yeah, what happened to him was unprecedented. If for no reason other than this I'd expect his power to return. Maybe not to the 30-35 HR range but he should certainly clear 20. (Eric Seidman)

Do you see David Wright bouncing back to pre-'09 form? Could Citi have affected him to the point where he took his troubles on the road (5hr)? (Drew from NY NY)

I'm open to the idea that this was an extreme case where the player was so much better than the team around him that it affected his performance. "Protection" is a myth, but there are extreme cases, and the '09 Mets lost all their good hitters save Wright. That may have had an impact on how he was pitched and how he handled the change, and spiraled from there. That's a guess, maybe one you won't like, but I'm open to the idea. (Joe Sheehan)

Can you believe what I did? I can't believe I offered David Wright to the Jays for Jose Cruz Jr. in 2002 and they declined.
Will I ever be a GM in MLB again?(Steve Phillips from Clinic)

Yes, I can believe you did it again. Like strikeout rate, plate discipline and health, the ability to operate one's zipper appropriately is a skill - adjusted for context, performance in that category correlates from one year to the next as opposed to fluctuating randomly. Let's just say your track record didn't offer much hope.

And let's face it: you're done in MLB. Younger and smarter GMs are coming along every day. (Jay Jaffe)

Should the Mets consider trading David Wright if they're not going to move the fences in (or lower)?(Candide from New York, NY)

No, they shouldn't. The other team has to play on the same field, and why wouldn't you want the advantage of employing Wright in your own lineup? Maybe it's my experiences as a young fan rooting for the A's and their power-laden lineups in a pitcher's park, but having power that yields runs in every environment is something you don't just give up because it doesn't get a boost from your home park. (Christina Kahrl)

Can we officially crown Ryan Zimmerman as the best 3B in baseball yet? (Johnny from Florida)

No, we can't. A-Rod's still great, and this is an era when we have Evan Longoria and David Wright both going strong. As much as I really love watching Zimmerman, especially afield, it's just not a cut-and-dried proposition. (Christina Kahrl)

So I'm going to the Mets game on Thursday and I don't think I own a jersey of a single healthy current player, so guess I will be the guy in the stands in the Edgardo Alfonzo jersey. I don't really have a question.(J.P. from Hartford)

I'm not the type that wears living player jerseys (I do have a Casey Stengel #37 T-shirt), but if I were, I would think that a David Wright garment would be worth having. Given that he's only 26, it should be good for another ten years... I don't suppose you can get an Alex Cora model, can you? Tim Redding?

I do want to get an Ebbets Field Flannel 1948 Oakland Oaks jersey (Casey again, this time #1), but those suckers are pricey! I just can't bring myself to spend almost $200 on a shirt, even if I think said shirt would dramatically elevate my mood whenever I wore it. (Steven Goldman)

Yeah, that Lastings Milledge t-shirt didn't work out too well. Though I still wear it to bed sometimes. When I was at the Mets store in Manhattan a few years back they actually had a Jason Phillips one. It was marked down to like forty bucks, should have bought it. Also flirted with a Kaz Matsui jersey for a while. There is always the chance, too, that Omar will trade David Wright so we can get more grittier. (or that he will get fired and replaced by Mike Francesca, same result), so I am leery. Maybe I will wear the Piazza one and recall a time where we had someone who could hit twenty home runs.(J.P. from Hartford)

Maybe you can get a Wayne Garrett #11 jersey... David Wright might not hit 20 HRs this year, but he could win a batting title, something that hasn't happened too often in the history of the Mets. In fact, using the standard of 400 PAs, the Mets have had just 35 .300 seasons, and only 19 of .310 or better. (Steven Goldman)

Thanks for the chat! Is the new ballpark affecting him that much, or is David Wright ever going to start hitting homeruns again?(Ameer from B-town)

I think he should start hitting homers on the road again, but I think he's very aware of the fences at Citi Field. It may be forcing him to change his approach a bit, as far as what kinds of hits he tries for. His line is going to come down a bit--his success rate on flyballs and grounders is otherwordly--so I hope he starts to pick it up outside of Citi. (Marc Normandin)

Your answer to Lost is a common sentiment, but reminds me of the New York media or radio callers over reactions to David Wright. I don't want to spoil but they answered a bunch of questions last night. They just opened a few new ones.(chuckstein17 from Long Beach, NY)

Is there ever a way you could see the Phillies ranking ahead of the Mets using any system out there? No matter what the Phillies do, the Mets are better, despite the glaring holes at 2B, the outfield corners, and the shaky starting rotation, yet the Mets are a 92-95 win team, year in and year out. (Brian from Philly)

Relax, Phillies fans. Seriously, chill out. Are you really the bunch of pantywaist crybabies so many of you seem to be when we at BP criticize various aspects of your team (Ryan Howard's defense and failings against lefties, for example). I thought you were supposed to be the toughest fans in sports. Your team has a flag that will fly forever, so does it really matter that PECOTA is giving the Mets a few games in the preseason standings?

It's no secret that the Mets underachieved over the last two years, but PECOTA loves loves loves David Wright, Jose Reyes and Carlos Beltran in particular, and it has a few more suspicions about the Phillies' staff, particularly the back ends of the rotation and the bullpen, enough to edge the Mets ahead. I wouldn't lose much sleep over it during the first week of March; PECOTA says both teams will be contenders, and you really ought to be able to live with that. (Jay Jaffe)

That's a great question, if only because my point of reference for explaining how good Evan Longoria is going to be is David Wright. Longoria's younger, and has a better contract, so I'll go with him. David Wright is sooooooo 2007. (Marc Normandin)

Is the Mets enormous run differential in inning #1 (especially compared to the rest of their innings) exclusively a product of good starting pitching and the guarantee that both Jose Reyes and David Wright will have a turn at the dish? (Meddler from Brooklyn, NY)

I would say it's having two premier hitters liek Reyes and Wright at the plate. (John Perrotto)

This preseason you made the infamous proclamation that Zimmerman could be better than David Wright this season. With the time missed to the labrum tear, the possibility of that happening this year from a production standpoint has obviously gone by the wayside. If Zim doesn't have to have surgery on his shoulder, do you think he makes good on your prediction next year?(Connor from Chicago, IL)

It's not just the injuries--Zimmerman didn't make the progress as a hitter I expected to see from him at 23, so even a full, healthy season would likely have left me wrong. At this point, I would say that I'm wrong about him passing Wright in the future, although he's young enough to still be very good. (Joe Sheehan)

Hanley, David Wright, or A-Rod with the 2nd overall pick tonight (1st overall will be Jose Reyes; don't ask). (Wilson from DC)

Rodriguez. I'd take Hanley if I didn't have questions about his shoulder. It surprises me that people are willing to completely overlook his surgery while panicking over Pujols' elbow. Yes, Ramirez has looked solid this spring, so my concern could be over nothing, but it's still there. (Will Carroll)

Well, if the Cards aren't going to have a good year anyway, what's the harm in sending him down for a while to delay the start of his arbitration clock? 72 wins is just as good as 73, really, right? Is there any developmental advantage to getting an extra month or two in the majors?(Andy from New York, NY)

Getting back to Rasmus for a moment...It's not to get more wins, it's to get him big league experience when the pressure is off. I've always felt that high-level players like Rasmus should be in the bigs by 22. If you look at history, that's usually the case. There have been some late entries, like Wade Boggs, but the greats are usually there early unless their path was blocked by another great. (Boggs was blocked, in part, because Yaz was still hanging around.) Andy makes a good point about arbitration clocks, but the Cards can always do what the Mets did with David Wright and Jose Reyes, lock him up early and long. (Jim Baker)

I'm expecting big, big things from Ryan Zimmerman this season, like David Wright without the speed, your thoughts.(Mike from Chicago)

David Wright without the speed, but with better defense, which is more relevant from a non-fantasy perspective. That's certainly a reasonable interpretation of his upside, and Wright is Zimmerman's #11 comparable. (Nate Silver)

Stephen, yes, true. You need to put guys who have good OBP in front of David Wright. Since the Mets didn't really have any of those guys, they might as well have pushed Wright up I guess (though I don't know if that's as true even in the NL with the pitcher being even worse at getting on base). (Matt Swartz)

Matt, that's absolutely right, but there are all kinds of situations -- look at the Mets during their injury phase this year. If your batting order is Cheese, Cheesy Cheese, David Wright, and Rancid Cheese, you might as well move David Wright up, no? (Steven Goldman)

"Taylor (Toronto): Hey, I warned you. While we're having a Evan Longoria lovefest who would you rather have for the next five years, him or David Wright? Are there any other third basemen remotely as good over the same period of time? "

That Rodriguez guy will hang.

I'll take Wright, but it's really close. I suspect Wright will be a slightly better OBP and speed guy, with a bit less power.(Joe Sheehan)

Sticking with the Mets: "chuckstein17 (Long Beach, NY): A certain local talk show host is saying the Mets should trade David Wright and that he'll never be a great player. Why does the NY media always blame the solutions and never the problems? BULLPEN!!!"

The phenomenon of a team's best player or players taking an inordinate amount of the blame for their failures is one that Bill James noted back in the Abstract years, and it's even truer today in a more hypercompetitive media. Good Lord, on ESPN Insider today Buster Olney is suggesting that David Wright needs to see a sports psychiatrist to "work through his apparent anxiety in high-pressure situations." Wright certainly deserves his share of the blame given his part in a lineup that managed only five runs over their last three games, but he did go 4-for-9 and hit .340/.416/.577 in September, including .462/.559/.769 in the seven games prior to the Marlins series. Carlos Delgado went 2-for-11, where's his Rx for a shrink, Buster? Sheesh.

This is the state of the art for mainstream analysis, folks. (Jay Jaffe)