Philippines Trade September 2016

Philippines: Exports rebound in September to almost two-year high

November 10, 2016

Philippine exports grew for the first time in September after seventeen consecutive months of decline, mainly due to stronger demand from China, Singapore and Japan. Exports expanded an annual 5.5%, which contrasted August’s 4.4% decrease and marked the best result since November 2014. September’s growth mainly reflected the swing from contraction to the strongest expansion in over twenty months in exports of manufactured goods (September: +4.9% year-on-year; August: -4.6% yoy).

Exports of electronic products—classified as a sub-category of manufactured goods—decelerated significantly, expanding 3.6% on an annual basis, which followed the 11.7% growth seen in the previous month. According to the Philippine Statistics Authority, electronic products account for the largest share of total export revenues. Other positive news came from exports of agro-based products, which grew 30.0%, the fastest rate in over two years, following August’s milder 1.1% expansion.

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists see exports falling 0.8% in 2016 and expanding 6.0% in 2017. Panelists expect a trade deficit of USD 17.4 billion in 2016 and see it shrinking to USD 16.2 billion in 2017.

According to data released by Nikkei and IHS Markit, the manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) edged up to 54.2 points in November from 54.0 points in October, climbing further above the critical 50-point threshold that separates expansion from contraction in the manufacturing sector.
Business conditions continued improving in November, largely thanks to a sharp acceleration in output growth, which rose at the fastest rate in nearly two years, and a strong uptick in new orders.

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