Oscars 2016

Michael Fassbender, left, congratulates Alicia Vikander after she won the award for best supporting actress for her role in �The Danish Girl� at the Oscars on Sunday, Feb. 28, 2016, at the Dolby Theatre in Los Angeles. (Photo by Chris Pizzello/Invision/AP)

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Spotlight was the front-runner at the beginning of awards season, but it seems now The Revenant is the one to beat. Bruce Kirkland and Liz Braun weigh in.

The 88th Academy Awards are just a day away. In the final instalment of our look at the major categories, we predict the best picture winner.

BRUCE SAYS...

When the New Year dawned, a bit bleary-eyed but still happy with the finest films of 2015, Spotlight was the odds-on favourite to win the Academy Award as best picture.

As the actual 88th edition of the awards gear up Sunday for Hollywood’s annual orgy of interminable acceptance speeches, Spotlight has faded in the estimation of the self-appointed Oscarologists who predict such things. Spotlight is still the same great film, a traditional drama about a searing true-life story, but its impact has waned.

So now, in the final hours, the best picture race seems to be down to three candidates: The Revenant is apparently the favourite, with The Big Short slightly behind and Spotlight running third.

But Spotlight remains my pick for best picture partly for selfish reasons. Tom McCarthy’s unadorned yet highly effective drama showcases a once-proud tradition of investigative journalism. As print media goes through a period of profound and unsettling change, it is healthy to be reminded about the success stories. In the case of Spotlight, it is the saga of how a team of reporters at the Boston Globe ripped open the Roman Catholic Church scandal involving pedophilia by priests and a massive coverup by church officials.

Interestingly, both of Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu’s The Revenant (a survival and revenge tale set in the 1820s) and Adam McKay’s The Big Short (an expose of financial skullduggery during the economic crises of the 2000s) are based on real stories, too.

The twist in this year’s Oscars is whether the Academy voters want to reward the same filmmaker two years in a row. At last year’s Oscar celebration, Inarritu’s eccentric and kinetic Birdman won four Oscars. This year, The Revenant is up for 12 noms. It might dominate the proceedings, with Spotlight turned right off for the night, by taking best picture and a clutch of other awards, including best director for Inarritu.

The very last Oscar handed over every year is — drumroll, please — the prize for best picture, so this year’s neck and neck competition between The Revenant and Spotlight means watching the Academy Awards until the bitter end.

Could there be an upset for best picture?

Indeed there could. Unlike all the other organizations that vote on these matters, the Academy uses a preferential ballot to pick the best movie. That means members rank all the nominated movies in order of preference.

If, by some miracle, one of the films gets more than half of the votes right out of the box, it’s the winner.

Failing that, the votes then shift like a game of musical chairs. The movie with the least number of first place votes gets chucked. Those ballots move to choice #2. The elimination game continues until one movie or another gets 50% (plus one) of the votes.

Confusing? You betcha, and we remind you that the Academy membership is heavy with direct descendants of the Dust Bowl.

All that aside, it looks now as if The Revenant will win best picture. It has a track record on the awards circuit that suggests momentum, and that may be enough to push it ahead of the crowd once and for all. As movies go, it also packs a wallop. Leonardo DiCaprio’s fight to survive as a frontiersman in the wilds of America some 200 years ago is thrilling to watch.

Tom McCarthy’s Spotlight, currently in first or second place in the race depending upon who you ask, is a more cerebral picture. It’s also brilliantly put together.

We’ll all find out Sunday who the winner is. Both films are deserving.

If The Revenant does win, as expected, maybe the good xenophobes of Hollywood will finally learn how to pronounce director Alejandro Inarritu’s name.

Spotlight was the front-runner at the beginning of awards season, but it seems now The Revenant is the one to beat. Bruce Kirkland and Liz Braun weigh in.

The 88th Academy Awards are just a day away. In the final instalment of our look at the major categories, we predict the best picture winner.

BRUCE SAYS...

When the New Year dawned, a bit bleary-eyed but still happy with the finest films of 2015, Spotlight was the odds-on favourite to win the Academy Award as best picture.

As the actual 88th edition of the awards gear up Sunday for Hollywood’s annual orgy of interminable acceptance speeches, Spotlight has faded in the estimation of the self-appointed Oscarologists who predict such things. Spotlight is still the same great film, a traditional drama about a searing true-life story, but its impact has waned.

So now, in the final hours, the best picture race seems to be down to three candidates: The Revenant is apparently the favourite, w