Ten Surprises for 2015 from Byron Wien. Some good and some bad. Two samples:2. Our luck runs out on cyber terrorism. Hackers invade the personal and corporate accounts of a major money center bank and the Federal Reserve orders the institution to suspend transactions for five business days while the accuracy of its balances is verified. Various government departments and agencies are mobilized to deal with the problem caused by the hackers having proved to be more skillful than our corporate cyber security efforts. 7. The drop in the price of oil finally has an impact on Iran. The country was dependent on its sale of crude to offset the impact of sanctions. The economic weakness resulting from the unexpected decline in oil finally forces a conciliatory attitude on the part of its nuclear negotiators. Pressure to cease nuclear weapons development comes from the Iranian people as well, as they seek more economic opportunity. An agreement to roll back its weapons program is greeted positively throughout the region and world equity markets rally briefly on the news. A wee bit about Byron Wien - here

Sometimes when I'm lonely I talk to myself, but I call myself "you guys" ... Saying "RELAX" is maybe the least relaxing word you can say to someone ... The two saddest consecutive sentences: "He just wants attention. Don't give it to him." ... People in cults don't call their cults cults ... You don't have to do what's expected of you ... Let's not wait for the apocalypse or an alien attack to love each other, y'all.-as excerpted from Sarah Silverman's cup

Thursday, January 8, 2015

We skipped the light fandangoturned cartwheels 'cross the floorI was feeling kinda seasickbut the crowd called out for moreThe room was humming harderas the ceiling flew awayWhen we called out for another drinkthe waiter brought a trayAnd so it was that lateras the miller told his talethat her face, at first just ghostly,turned a whiter shade of paleShe said, 'There is no reasonand the truth is plain to see.'But I wandered through my playing cardsand would not let her beone of sixteen vestal virginswho were leaving for the coastand although my eyes were openthey might have just as well've been closedAnd just because you always wanted to know:

I've been reading a bit of Charles Murray lately. In one of the books, Murray mentioned Hamlet's Mill, suggesting that, while other intellectual types had savaged the authors, he valued their work. Intrigued enough to visit Amazon, I was impressed by their asking price for the book.

When new books are fetching $216, I do what any sensible person would do. I visit the Newark Public Library. While this book did not have a place of honor on the shelves, the library's computer allowed me to request delivery from the Southeastern Ohio Regional Library Center. Four days later, voila, the book is (temporarily) in my possession. It's like magic. Now to see what the fuss was all about. As you will note on the book's cover, the authors are calling this "An Essay ...". Some essay, the book is 349 pages long, and the Appendices add another 135 pages. Hmm.

As the senior, if least deserving, of the authors, I shall open the narrative. Over many years I have searched for the point where myth and science join. It was clear to me for a long time that the origins of science had their deep roods in a particular myth, that of invariance. The Greeks, as early as the 7th century B.C., spoke of the quest of their first sages as the Problem of the One and the Many, sometimes describing the wild fecundity of nature as the way in which the Many could be deduced from the One, sometimes seeing the Many as unsubstantial variations being played on the One. The oracular sayings of Heraclitus the Obscure do nothing but illustrate with shimmering paradoxes the illusory quality of "things" in flux as they were wrung from the central intuition of unity. Before him Anaximander had announced, also oracularly, that the cause of things being born and perishing is their mutual injustice to each other in the order of time, "as is meet," he said, for they are bound to atone forever for their mutual injustice. This was enough to make of Anaximander the acknowledged father of physical science, for the accent is on the real "Many." But it was true science after a fashion.
-Giorgio de Santillana and Hertha von Dechend, from the Preface to Hamlet's Mill: An Essay On Myth & The Frame Of Time

Ποταμοῖς τοῖς αὐτοῖς ἐμβαίνομέν τε καὶ οὐκ ἐμβαίνομεν, εἶμέν τε καὶ οὐκ εἶμεν"We both step and do not step in the same rivers. We are and are not."From Anaximander: Whence things have their origin, Thence also their destruction happens, According to necessity; For they give to each other justice and recompense For their injustice In conformity with the ordinance of Time.

Original SinWell, anyhow, it preserves us from the prideof thinking we invented sin ourselvesby our originality, that famous modern power.In fact, we have it from the beginningof the world by the errors of being born,being young, being old, causing painto ourselves, to others, to the world, to Godby ignorance, by knowledge, by intention,by accident. Something is bad the matterhere, informing us of itself, handing downits old instruction. We know itwhen we see it, don’t we? Innocencewould never recognize it. We need ittoo, for without it we would not knowforgiveness, goodness, gratitude,that fund of grace by which alone we live.-Wendell Berry

“When the number of factors coming into play in a phenomenological complex is too large, scientific method in most cases fails. One need only think of the weather, in which case the prediction even for a few days ahead is impossible.”

.....................it is all about blocking and tackling - the basics. Friend Spengler believes we have lost our way, and the Chinese have found it. Full post here. A few interesting bits here:China is succeeding despite many problems (including authoritarian administration) because the Chinese are working very hard ... And they have an army of millions of highly competent people coming into the labor market. That’s what we should worry about ... The Chinese work much, much harder than we do and learn more math and science (not to mention classical music: an estimate 50 million Chinese kids learn instruments).We no longer have a tech sector: we have consumer electronics monopolies run by patent trolls whose job is to crush innovation. Don’t get me wrong: I think America is best in the world at what we do, when do we it, that is, which we aren’t doing now.

"Granny's Rule" provides another example of reward superpower, so extreme in its effects that it must be mentioned here. You can successfully manipulate your own behavior with this rule, even if you are using as rewards items you already possess! Indeed, consultant Ph.D. psychologists often urge business organizations to improve their reward systems by teaching executives to use "Granny's Rule" to govern their own daily behavior. Granny's Rule, to be specific, is the requirement that children eat their carrots before they get desert. And the business version requires that executives force themselves daily to first do their unpleasant and necessary tasks before rewarding themselves by proceeding to their pleasant tasks. Given reward superpower, this practice is nice and sound. Moreover, the rule can also be used in the nonbusiness part of life. The emphasis on daily use of this practice is not accidental. The consultants well know, after the teaching of Skinner, the prompt rewards work best.
-Charles T. Munger, as excerpted from The Psychology of Human Misjudgment

It’s easy to be pessimistic when one doesn’t understand economics or that the innovative nature of the human mind is the ultimate resource. The incentives and price system inherent in the market process ensure that innovation will continue to improve our world. But Simon wrote that two things were certain: first, “humanity's condition will improve in just about every material way”; second, “humans will continue to sit around complaining about everything getting worse.''-As excerpted from #5 on this list of Six Reasons We Don't Know How Good We Have It.One of the reasons us History majors tend to be optimistic is that the historical default condition for most of humanity is to be cold (my Eurocentric background is showing), wet, hungry, and poor. It is pretty clear that economic systems matter, and the cold, wet, hungry, and poor thing is just an option these days.thankscraig

Trying to get rid of an unwanted habit is a bit like trying not to think about an elephant (the more you try not to think about it, the more you think about it). That's because what you focus on grows. Which is why people who put a lot of energy into focusing on what they don't want, by talking about it, thinking about it, or fretting about it, usually get precisely that unwanted thing. It's tough to get rid of the habit you don't want by facing it head on. The way to accomplish is is to replace the unwanted habit with another habit you do want. And creating new and better habits, ones that empower and serve you, is something you know how to do. You do it the same way you built any habit you have: one step at a time. Baby steps.-Jeff Olson, as excerpted from The Slight Edge: Turning Simple Disciplines Into Massive Success & Happiness

Lord, thou knowest better than myself that I am growing older and will soon be old. Keep me from becoming too talkative, and especially from the unfortunate habit of thinking that I must say something on every subject and at every opportunity.

Release me from the idea that I must straighten out other peoples' affairs. With my immense treasure of experience and wisdom, it seems a pity not to let everybody partake of it. But thou knowest, Lord, that in the end I will need a few friends.

Keep me from the recital of endless details; give me wings to get to the point.

Grant me the patience to listen to the complaints of others; help me to endure them with charity. But seal my lips on my own aches and pains -- they increase with the increasing years and my inclination to recount them is also increasing.

I will not ask thee for improved memory, only for a little more humility and less self-assurance when my own memory doesn't agree with that of others. Teach me the glorious lesson that occasionally I may be wrong.

Keep me reasonably gentle. I do not have the ambition to become a saint -- it is so hard to live with some of them -- but a harsh old person is one of the devil's masterpieces.

Make me sympathetic without being sentimental, helpful but not bossy. Let me discover merits where I had not expected them, and talents in people whom I had not thought to possess any. And, Lord, give me the grace to tell them so.-Prayer of Anonymous AbbessMargot Benary-Isbert

Here's a powerful exercise: Instead of writing down what you're going to do (chances are you've been doing that your whole adult life anyway, and it doesn't make you any better at doing them), write down at the end of the day what you did do that day. What actions did you take today that made you successful? Did you read ten pages of a good book? Did you eat healthy food and get some good exercise? Did you engage in positive associations? Did you do the things you need to do to be successful in your business? Did you tell somebody, "I appreciate you"? At the end of a week, look back over your lists and take inventory. Not only will it tell you a lot about the truth of your everyday life, chances are good that the mere act of recording this daily reflection will have already started changing what you do.-Jeff Olson, as excerpted fromThe Slight Edge: Turning Simple Disciplines Into Massive Success & Happiness

Each and every incomplete thing in your life or work exerts a draining force on you, sucking the energy of accomplishment and success out of you as surely as a vampire stealing your blood. Every incomplete promise, commitment, or agreement saps your strength because it blocks your momentum and chokes off your ability to move forward, progress, or improve. Incomplete things keep calling you back to the past to take care of them.-Jeff Olson, as excerpted from The Slight Edge: Turning Simple Disciplines Into Massive Success & Happiness