Lions 2013: Romain Poite will be the most important man on the pitch

Romain Poite has sent eight players to the sinbin in his last seven Tests. Photograph: AFP/Getty Images

THE MAN IN THE MIDDLE

It would be fitting if a series that has been far higher on drama than quality came down to the final play for the third match in a row.

A best of British and Irish rugby lunch was held at the Star complex in Darling Harbour on Friday. There have been concerns in recent years about the decline in popularity of rugby union in New South Wales, but there was not a spare seat at the corporate bash, with some 700 diners listening to the thoughts of Jason Leonard, Phil Kearns and Stephen Larkham before an entertaining post-meal address by Scott Quinnell.

A big screen showed a rerun of the 2001 series decider between the teams in Sydney. A case of hoping that history would repeat itself, certainly, but it was also a reminder of how fluid the Lions were that year: Jason Robinson found himself on the end of passing moves rather than chasing kicks, the task of his positional successor, George North.

And the game contained breakdowns which were contested and did not prompt the referee – Paddy O'Brien – to blow his whistle all the time; and the ball came out of scrums. Players generally understood what they were being blown for and there was little need for clarification. It had flow and instilled a dangerous yearning for yesteryear.

There is usually no going back but if there was a feeling on one table of diners that the calibre of players on both sides was lower, and not marginally so, than 2001, the change in the way the game is refereed at the top level has had a strait-jacketing effect: while the Lions have gone for the Welsh power game here on Saturday, they know that the team who are awarded the most penalties are highly likely to win. In the past lies the future.

Every media conference in the two camps this week has contained at least one question about Saturday's match official, Romain Poite, not that anyone is going to come out and wave a yellow card in his direction. The replies have been deferential and respectful: oh to be a fly on the wall in the respective team rooms.

Poite refereed two of Wales's matches in the Six Nations, at home to Ireland and away to Italy, and he was in Cardiff for the opening of their autumn campaign last year, when Argentina won comfortably. He was so unimpressed with the home side's scrummaging in Rome that he gave Martin Castrogiovanni time off in the sinbin. He controlled Australia's 20-14 victory at Twickenham last November, a day when the Wallabies enjoyed so much supremacy at the breakdown that Michael Hooper was named the man of the match; only five of that starting line-up will take the field on Saturday, but they include the two props, Benn Robinson and Ben Alexander, while Stephen Moore came on at half-time at hooker.

Jonathan Sexton and Sean O'Brien will not take it as a third Test augury that Poite had the whistle when Ireland ended last year's tour of New Zealand with a 60-point defeat. There has not been a yellow card this series, but Poite has sent eight players to the sinbin in his last seven Tests. A former policeman, he does not welcome interrogation or transgression.

He will be a central figure, as is the way in modern Test rugby. He will allow more of a hit in the scrum than Craig Joubert last week and it was an area that helped Wales overcome England in Cardiff last March, a match which is being taken as the template for the Lions' approach at ANZ Stadium. They won all bar one of the penalties and free-kicks at the set-piece, allowing them to achieve position and build up a lead, and they were similarly rewarded at the breakdown that day.

The Lions do not have a plan B on the bench, but it is to be hoped that Sexton will be given licence to use Jamie Roberts as a decoy at times, ready if Australia pay the Welshman too much attention. Although it is a surprise, given that Wales like to use him off lineout ball, that Tom Croft has been left out. Who would go with Sexton is another matter, but Australia are a side used to defending against New Zealand and South Africa.

Roberts is no more difficult to bring down than Ma'a Nonu, but stopping Nonu marks only the beginning against the All Blacks. Australia have picked George Smith not just to offer a more physical presence at the breakdown than Hooper but to help deal with the threat of the Lions' beefed up midfield. The recalled veteran of 2001 may not last 80 minutes, but the Wallabies have gone for a 6-2 split and they have finished the first two Tests the stronger; they will bank on being in the game on the hour.

If there has been little in the series, three tries to two in Australia's favour while the Lions have landed eight penalties to six, there has been a difference in approach. Australia have tried to put the ball through hands, but James O'Connor has not proved the ideal launchpad at outside-half. Their 10, 12, 13 combination was new this series and only spent a few seconds together in Brisbane, but given the Lions' shortcomings at the set-pieces, they have not made anywhere near the most of an unexpected bounty of possession.

Australia have few stand-out players, but they are resourceful and generally hang on when they are being outplayed. Israel Folau has given them potency out wide and what has marked them out against home union sides in recent years is their ability to manufacture a try when they need to, as they showed in Melbourne.

The Lions, in contrast, have one successful move to show for all their hours on the training field, Alex Cuthbert's bust into midfield immediately after Australia had been forced to deploy a flanker in midfield, along with an individual try by George North. They showed early in the tour, against inferior opposition, that they had a lighter touch, but risk will be avoided unless they are playing catch-up.

It may well come down to the boot of the two goalkickers. Australians know all about Leigh Halfpenny's prowess, but unless they watch the RaboDirect Pro 12, they will not be aware of his pace and the threat he can pose on the counter-attack.

The motto of the 2013 Lions should not be who dares sins. There is a series to be won and they have nothing to fear except their own inhibition.