Sunday, February 13, 2011

Braun came from behind in 1992, it's true. But she wasn't this far behind

The story that Carol Moseley Braun is telling supporters (and perhaps even herself) is that being far behind in the polls isn’t necessarily predictive of failure on election day.

Yes, the new Tribune poll shows her trailing Rahm Emanuel 49 percent to 10 percent with Gery Chico at 19 percent, and last week's ABC7 poll showed her trailing Emanuel 54 percent to 6 percent, with Chico at 14 percent.

But in the days and weeks leading up to the March 17, 1992, Democratic U.S. Senate primary, she's been saying, polls showed her badly trailing two, better-funded white opponents.

The story told by the news archives is somewhat different, however. Though it does show Braun coming from well behind in the polls in the final month, it reminds us that nearly every poll showed Braun running second and closing a much narrower gap.

January 31, 1992 (Sun-Times)--- An early poll shows Sen. Alan Dixon with a substantial lead over Al Hofeld and Carol Moseley Braun in the race for the Democratic nomination. Dixon got 40 percent, with Hofeld and Braun at 20 percent.

February 3, 1992 (Sun-Times) --Braun is urging political newcomer Hofeld to withdraw from the primary, which would give her a one-on-one race with Dixon. Polls taken for Dixon and Hofeld have shown Braun as the runner-up.

February 7, 1992 (Sun-Times) -- A poll taken for Sen. Alan J. Dixon (D-Ill.) about a week ago shows he has dropped to 45 percent; attorney Albert F. Hofeld's saturation television campaign raised him to 14 percent; Braun was at 25.

March 8, 1992 (Tribune) -- Two-term incumbent (Alan Dixon) now has the support of 38 percent of the likely voters in the March 17 Democratic primary. But 28 percent say they will vote for Braun, 18 percent are backing Hofeld, and 16 percent are still undecided.

March 9, 1992 (Sun-Times)-- A Chicago Sun-Times/Fox News Chicago poll puts Sen. Alan J. Dixon ahead as the March 17 Democratic primary approaches. According to the poll conducted by the Gallup Organization: 44 percent would vote for Dixon. 23 percent would support Hofeld. 22 percent would back Braun.

March 15, 1992 (Tribune) Hofeld soldiered on, even though campaign aides privately worried that polls showing him mired in a distant third place had become a self-fulfilling prophecy.

RESULT: Braun, 38, Dixon 35, Hofeld 28

Posted at 12:30:48 PM

Comments

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A month ago I was certain of a runoff. Today, I am willing to wager that Rahm wins outright with about 58%.

Zorn and Schmidt and others it appears are only repeating foolish numbers and statements because they work for the paper which pick Rahm as the one it endorsed, foolishly. Newspapers have made many an error over the years. It's a shame that reporters are cowered into who to favorably report on due to the bosses pick. That's sad and depressing. Chico is and always has been the best candidate running for mayor. He has the best plans, he is inspirational, he is a coalition builder and he has loads of city experience by being a native Chicagoan who worked hard to become the successful lawyer he is, who has worked in key city management positions, the all around good guy, which is in his genes, the smartest, and the most qualified for the nitty gritty work of being mayor. "Mayor Chico of Chicago," has a great ring to it. Chico, Chico, Chico!

ZORN REPLY -- What's sad and depressing is that you think the editorial board "bosses" around the political reporting staff -- over which they have no control whatsoever -- or even hints to me what to write about or what stances to take.You'll note -- or maybe you won't -- that I wrote columns supporting Pat Quinn AND Alexi Giannoulias in the runup to last November's election in contravention of the choices of the editorial board.
Our editorial board and I certainly agree on the idea that Gery Chico would be a good mayor -- he seems to have the experience and the temperament to do the job. Our editorial board has decided that Emanuel would nevertheless be the better choice. I, honestly, haven't made up my mind as a voter yet.

Blacks and Hispanics are still being underpolled, and Hispanics are no longer afraid to vote. There is a great deal of support for Chico that the Anglo media is just not tapped into. Rahm will still get a plurality, but it'll be closer to 40% than 50%.

ZORN REPLY -- Blacks are going better than 2 to 1 for Emanuel over Braun, 7 to1 for Emanuel over Chico.

I think this election may be the last test of union power. Can they deliver enough of the vote for Chico? Will the teacher's union get behind any of these candidates? Does anti-union sentiment help Emanuel? I won't make a prediction, yet, I'll wait to see how it's going by the end of the week. Right now, I think it's too close to call on the runoff question.

Maggie, I agree that Chico is probably the best qualified in terms of managerial experience and Chicago knowledge. But, the next mayor needs to be able to stand up to the public employees' unions, and, given his endorsements, it doesn't seem likely that Chco is the man to do that.

DaveB, I'd encourage you to meet him or at least check out his website. Better to meet him, you will be pleasantly surprised. I'd guess you have never met him. I get this impression because you think he would not stand up to unions. Re: the matter of "stand up to the public employees' unions." The matter worth mentioning is being able to be tough, which Chico is, and to clearly negotiate. Chico has that all over Rahm. Chico is actually tougher than Rahm, in all the best ways. You don't see that? Do you think bullies are really tough too? I think the Trib should be hiding itself under the bridge by the river for not endorsing Chico. They may have visions of dollar bills with Rahm. Or believe Rahm's false sense of power. An illusion for certain. As much as I like Rahm, I like Chico 100x more to be the mayor of Chicago because he will, no doubt, make the better mayor. Rahm hasn't earned the title mayor of Chicago. Let him at least live amongst us for 4 years. Chico has earned the job promotion to the top. The polls slanted reporting has been harped upon by the confused reporters. Chico is the most innovative and the man with ideas. Rahm waited in the dark and outside of early debates to see what Chico was proposing and then proceeded to parrot him, just as the other candidates did. Gery Chico is a solid guy. He's the real deal. Chico supports schools excelling and students really learning. He's proposed the best plan which makes the most sense for the students of the public schools and for our society and for the lowest cost. Gery Chico is the best candidate.

Rahm Emanuel has lived in Chicago for well over four years, and he was a Congressman from Chicago for six of those years. I don't need to meet the candidates so they can tell me what I want to hear. I need facts, and most of the candidates have provided precious few. Emanuel has the most comprehensive web site of the bunch.

Pay to play, and the beat goes on, Red, White, and Blue, Chicago style.
A sad story in the middle of the heartland, the stink of a political sewer.
Just think, opportunistic Obamanistic started of his linguistic political schtick just down the street. Be proud Chicago, go cubs!

ZORN REPLY: "Blacks are going better than 2 to 1 for Emanuel over Braun, 7 to1 for Emanuel over Chico."

Of course. The ones that are being polled are. It would be a mistake to assume that the ones that are not being polled are going for Rahm. Delve a bit into the local Spanish press if you don't believe me.

Agreed. It's the most comprehensive bunch of BS of all the candidates. If the corporate press was doing their job, everyone would know about it, but then, they wouldn't be the corporate press, would they?

About "Change of Subject."

"Change of Subject" by Chicago Tribune op-ed columnist Eric Zorn contains observations, reports, tips, referrals and tirades, though not necessarily in that order. Links will tend to expire, so seize the day. For an archive of Zorn's latest Tribune columns click here. An explanation of the title of this blog is here. If you have other questions, suggestions or comments, send e-mail to ericzorn at gmail.com.
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Contributing editor Jessica Reynolds is a 2012 graduate of Loyola University Chicago and is the coordinator of the Tribune's editorial board. She can be reached at jreynolds at tribune.com.