Washington at Baltimore MLB Betting Spread Analysis

The All-Star Game provides the ultimate in interleague play, but there is a pretty good match-up coming before the festivities get under way in Cincinnati over the weekend. The Washington Nationals will travel to Baltimore to face the Orioles in a 3-game series, safe in the knowledge that their lead atop the NL East will be intact when the first half of the season comes to a close. The second game is set for Saturday night, with the Orioles going in as favorites in the sports betting odds.

It took a major portion of the first half for it to happen, but the Washington Nationals (46-38) are finally getting the performances they expected from their starting rotation. They have now jumped out to a 3-game lead atop the division, but not all is totally rosy at the moment. The hitters don’t always hold up their end of the bargain, which is why they are just 5-5 in the last 10 games. Other than a 9-run outburst versus the Giants, Washington has only managed more than 2 runs once in their last 6 games. Were it not for the fact that their pitching was so good right now, that lead might not be quite so good. The Nats will be looking to break out of a small 2-game losing streak that could have turned into a sweep had the final game of the series versus the Reds not been postponed. Jordan Zimmermann (7-5, 3.04 ERA) will get the start on Saturday as he goes in search of his 3rd straight win.

The Baltimore Orioles (43-42) are having some problems of their own right now, and are in a particularly poor run of form. They are just 2-8 in their last 10 games, and have given up their lead in the AL East to the New York Yankees. The Orioles are coming off sweep at the hands of the Minnesota Twins, and have now lost 3 consecutive series. If there is a bright side to this sudden slump, it’s that the AL East has been very forgiving this season. None of the 5 teams have been able to really take control, and a mere 5.5 games separates first from last. The worst of the recent slump came on the road, where the O’s have had issues all year. They will play this series at home, where they are a very healthy 26-16 this season. Miguel Gonzalez (7-5, 3.57 ERA) will start, and will be looking to build on the great performance he put in last time out.

Key Betting Trends

Baltimore is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games Baltimore is 11-4 SU in its last 15 games at home The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Baltimore’s last 7 games at home Baltimore is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Washington Baltimore is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Washington Washington is 12-5 SU in its last 17 games The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Washington’s last 7 games Washington is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing Baltimore Washington is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Baltimore The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Washington’s last 8 games when playing on the road against Baltimore

My Betting Prediction

This has all the makings of a low-scoring affair, and one where the edge has to go to the Orioles, thanks to their solid home record.

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