Stephen Maher

Sunday, May 13, 2012

Well, I thought it might be time for a change so I've spent the week working on www.GamblerFalls.com

Nothing will change from here to the website, I just fancied a change, now that I have more space I can do a few previews and that, like I used to when I started here, I'm looking forward to that and sure its just something different and new to do.

I apologise to long time readers in advance for a bit of the jargon I had to use to fill up space on the homepage at the website - sure what are you supposed to say to fill up space, at least I picked a few nice looking photos.

As I said, absolutely nothing will change from here just now I have GamblerFalls the website instead of GamblerFalls the blog, no subscriptions or any other of that nonsense.

Hopefully at least a few of you will keep reading :) All the Betfair P&L posts will be under €100 - €100,000 Challenge.

Monday, May 7, 2012

Finally took the plunge and downloaded the new Firefox, so its a bit better writing posts now its compatible with the new blogger layout - it also means a different look on the Betfair screen shots but its not overly different. Although one problem I had this week was clicking that bloody "try Betfair BETA" link placed RIGHT over the refresh button, annoying when you click on it during an in-play market..! I use Gruss for trading but I do like to have the main site open at the same time, probably a case of habit.

Anyway, a better week this week and steadily getting better with the IPL, it gave us a reminder why you dont lay big prices this week - 400 matched down to 3ish.. that would have been scary for the layers.

The markets have been getting better for me too, my stakes have been a lot smaller than they would be normally, but because I'm getting involved later than usual, I dont have the time to turn over as much as I would usually do. Its not too bad though and I've been aiming for €40 - €50 a game which seems the best way for me to go, and keep liability a bit lower than usual - just because its so bloody mad.

I had been looking forward to the start of the English season but I made a right bollocks of that on Friday night, shouldnt have even got involved after it was such a high score first innings, discipline slip there. But it was a good week over all and happy enough with the plays. I managed to fluke the 1000G winner yesterday too, although it was my Girlfriends idea because Homecoming Queen won the day we were in Leopardstown so thats where I got it from - dont mind taking the credit though you know, ha!

I think with the trouble at the start, if you ran the race again you'd probably get a different result but sure its hard to know, she was quite impressive. I thought she'd make the running for Maybe and then because she was so tough in Leopardstown stay on for a place, wasnt expecting her to have it wrapped up by 3F out. Nice to see Camelot win the 2000G too, hopefully he goes onto The Derby now and we have a few big clashes over the season with whoever comes out from the pack, I wonder will Frankel possibly take him on at some stage, hopefully.

Monday, April 30, 2012

Well, still in slow progress mode carrying on from last week, but with Punchestown on (and I'm amazed it went ahead for the five days!) I was limited with my online time. Real shame about the weather but Tuesday and Saturday were lovely days, I didnt know we'd get to see Moscow Flyer, he looks great, nice to see the old fella doing well and having a happy retirement.

Anyway onto the trading, I thought it was shaping up to be a bigger week than it was in the end after my first market on Wednesday, only to give back €60 of it on the completed match market on the next game.. they took off the covers and the market went from 1.2ish to 1.8+, was just about to flip so I was carrying a bit of red when it started to drizzle again and we went straight to 1.01 more or less, argh. Happy enough with the play though all the same. And in the match odds markets I seem to be doing much better the later I leave it to get involved, even going to as late as two overs left - although it does leave an awful lot of 'no plays' but I'm not overly bothered about that. Yesterdays games werent on TV but Mumbai were 1.09 by the innings break, those type of games are never any good for me you know (unless it gets gubbed).

Then, carrying on the theme of this years IPL, I'm just on the wrong team, its OK because I'm not finishing red though, but I suppose I should be greening out a little more too. The English domestic season is back on Friday, I think my style is probably more suited to games like that and Internationals than the IPL these days.

The great news of the week though is Kildare won the NFL division 2 final in Croker yesterday, still a second half team IMO and I'm looking forward to making a few quid from that during the summer when we get more liquidity in the GAA markets. Cork were very impressive winning the division 1 final later on and pulled right away after going into HT at odds against. Gutted Real Madrid didnt go through in the Champions League though because I wanted to use this:

Also from the Champions League, what a typo this is..! Amazing.

And I'm really looking forward to City v United tonight, should be a cracker!

Monday, April 23, 2012

Well first things first, it may seem like a silly complaint but Blogger has completely changed this week! Its not even compatible with my version of Firefox anymore, I have to say writing a post isnt as enjoyable using the new layout but sure it is what it is and we'll get on with it.

Anyway onto the week, its been slow going the last two weeks - last week was +€115 and this week is +€124, but after the bad, frustrating and annoying start to the IPL I dont mind going slowly along for a bit just to get a bit of confidence back and get back into the grove of trading fast T20s. Maybe theres a case towards the start of this week that my stakes were too small - but after the first few games when I did something the opposite happened next ball so I was keen enough to keep staking low, of course when things go right its only in hindsight you think I should have just done that staking normally. I have to say though again bringing the Betfair balance down to €300 and going from there has helped yet again, I dont think its failed me yet (I've just gone and jinxed it saying that but anyway!) and its good to just get back to basics every once and while I suppose.
Obviously I would like to be hitting €100+ green each IPL game but, again you know, I said last year the markets have become an awful lot smarter since it started and youre not getting the low odds lays like before, but I'm happy enough getting between €30 and €40 a game atm - theres so many games on its just a case of taking things a bit slowly and not getting into trouble. I suppose its good in a way I had a few mares the first week and was still finishing only -€10 or whatever, so it could have been worse. And its my own fault for thinking "IPL = easy money" in the first place.
We had the 2nd Test match between Windies and Aus this week too but it really wasnt a runner with all the rain, I was happy enough building up a book of result green trading the draw when we nearly lost a whole day and the draw crashed to odds on.

There wasnt much really I could with it after that, changed around a bit and leveled the book completely at €65 - then threw away a few quid backing The Windies at big prices to chase down the score Aus set them - only for them to come into 5ish and then go off for rain again, and sure they never came back out. Test matches would be my biggest form of income lately but I dont mind finishing with a low profit or small loss when its a draw - especially on 'result' pitches like that, bloody rain.

Anyway, onwards to next week, we have Punchestown on this week so I'm not sure how much online time I'll have but I cant wait to head down there for a few days, I have free tickets for tomorrow but just looking at the card there theres plenty of short prices favourites, still it'll be nice to see Sizing Europe I suppose, and Hurricane Fly on Friday. I'll do bits of the 3rd test and try eek a few quid out of the IPL again.

EDIT - I apologise for the lack of paragraphs between the photos - I'm actually putting them there but Blogger isnt showing them, so it might read a bit odd.

Sunday, April 15, 2012

Well, the IPL is still somewhat a frustration, but it did get better on Thursday and I havent traded it since (wasnt on TV today) so I'm feeling a bit more positive about it from last week. I was royally fed up with it on Tuesday though - Monday was a struggle and I was sat looking at -€60 Deccan and €0 Mumbai and ended up finishing with €0 through some miracle, then on Tuesday RCB were 1.8ish to chase down 166 at The Chinnaswamy, which is IMO one of the best chasing grounds in the world (par is usually nearer 200, its also where Ireland beat England in the WC after Kevin O'Brien set the fastest 100). 1.8 to chase 166, great I think, after 9 overs they were 33/5 - luckily I hit the equal red button in between all the wickets, if someone told me that score without me seeing it I'd have never believed it.

So I was fairly depressed Tuesday evening thinking nothing is going right at all after that. But the Test match has perked up my spirit, really and truly I should be focusing on Test matches and not doing the IPL but its hard to change from what I've been used to over the last few years.

Ironically enough the only IPL game I've been green on bigger than €6, 1.01 got busted! €500k at 1.02 must have hurt a few out there.

Hopefully things will continue to pick up next week, €115 may seem a bit small in the grand scheme of things but I'm delighted to just get out of that little bit of an IPL lull from last week and just get back in the black.

Took the opportunity to head to Leopardstown today for the Guineas trial day, the nice weather made it a lovely day out, not sure if any of them will go in on the big day but Furners Green quickened up well from where we were standing and he had strong form ties with the winner of the Ballysax later. The horse racing loss online was from the Grand National, even backing five I still couldnt pick the winner!

Sunday, April 8, 2012

One of the most frustrating weeks I've ever had on Betfair this week. The IPL leaves your head spinning at the best of times, but I really cant get anything going on it at all so far. I was saying on twitter earlier in the week that I couldnt get a strong hold/opinion on any of the games so far, but even today when I was happy to have a fairly strong opinion I was miles off, one of those weeks!

So far theyve been very one sided games though, and the market is hitting sub 1.2s pretty early on, if it hasnt reached 1.2s near to the end of the 1st innings, its going quickly in the 2nd innings - but there has been loads of early wickets. From Monday on I wont be getting involved at the break at all - and just judge things on how the chase is going rather than forming it during the break.

I've also withdrawn a fair few quid from the account too so I cant have any big liabilities, I know theres loads of opinions on bank size but it never really bothered me you know, I've always thought you only really need what your using at the time in the market rather than be sat there looking at €10,000.. when theres no chance of putting that in the market, I've always thought it only opens the door to a miss click really, but each to their own of course. Anyway, I usually have around about €1k, I'm going into tomorrow with €300 - purely to keep IPL trades a bit lower than usual, confidence is pretty low after that battering of a week. I think I did really well to only be down only €80 really.

I was heavy on England too in the Test, without getting up at 5-30AM so I cant really complain, but I traded out of that (was carrying red) just before they went odds against towards the end of day four, then a few minutes later Swanny took two wickets in an over and they won easily on day five. Happy they won to keep the number 1 spot for the summer, not happy with my timing, or patience - patience is (IMO) number one key for test cricket trading.

That probably sums up this week though, bad timing and bad patience, but sure next week we'll have another go and thats what its all about. Just have to relax a bit, losing never bothered me at all once I know I've done the best I could - just need to find that bit of patience again for the IPL - I forgot how crazy it is.

Sunday, April 1, 2012

Well, nice to be busy again and maybe find a bit of form. Although probably cocked up a little Friday night getting into a good position and still losing €50, not a big sum but no need for it at the same time. Old me probably would have lost more though, and I suppose its nice to be more risk adverse these days, it was a half throwback to the old days at the same time where I get an idea in my head and a certain team/player "cant" or shouldnt lose and take a pigheaded approach to viewing the market - really couldnt see Aus not getting 161 after Windies finished so poorly, but shit happens I suppose.

I've always thought that if something has gone wrong that it was always my fault, rather than blame players (or more popularly jockeys!), there are certain situation where you can get fecked over quickly but very rarely, and it tends to happen (to me anyway) it low liquidity markets. Things were going grand until Wade got on strike and buggered it up - but I dont blame him, more so me for not reacting to it.

I thought it was bit like I'd gone back a few years by not reacting and thinking 'ah, it'll work out' in hope rather than confidence - I used to do that ages ago but not now, and consequently had a lot more €300+ losses. Its 'only' 50 quid at the end of the day but its daft behaviour not using my experience you know, its a perfect prep for the IPL on Wednesday though and getting rid of red when I can (or should) because the swings in that will be unreal!

Tuesday was better and ideally I'd love to have every book like this..!

As I mentioned Monday I wasnt getting up at 5AM for the SL v Eng test but what drama - I was just looking on for the most part.. I really wanted Eng to win but that 2/1 to chase their highest ever chase was (IMO as said on twitter) a terrible price really.. but they went down to sub 1.6 before ending up getting beaten. SL at 1.5 was a "walk the dog" price if ever there was one, and thats four tests losing in a row for Eng!

I forgot to mention Monday I'm no longer a horse owner, Kitty Dillons last run was shocking to say the least and sure there wasnt much point carrying on with her, positive is it didnt cost that much at all given it was a lease, exactly like our last one SeeSea. Thats three weve had now and have ended up having to be retired through injury or whatever (put down in Marshal Dillons case) and I think that will be that for my ownership venture - we have to be one of the most unluckiest bunch going.

Better news is though I broke 80 at Citywest on Thursday, managed to get it over the water on the last this time! I downloaded a few apps there the weekend and they put the idea in my head to maybe change my grip but I'm not sure if it'll be a terrible idea or not. My trading shocks course is going alright too, although I'm not sure if its for me yet or not, a lot of it so far is to do with chart analysis and I cant put my finger on it but I think its just all happening a bit slow for me - maybe when I get a go in the markets it'll pick up.

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I must have really low self esteem because I cant think of anything good or interesting to say about myself, I never even won a medal, got most improved footballer once but that just means ya were shite anyway. The blog was started to do the €100 to €100,000 Challenge, started on the 1st of March 2009 and still going, hopefully complete it some day but sure look I'll never run out of time. Hope you enjoy reading and feel free to comment etc, its all only a bit of craic at the end of the day anyway. Dont take anything I say too serious, even though I am the daddy..