Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2011-12 season in May, 2012. (includes results from January 2- April 29, 2012):

Program

Status

Renew/ Cancel Index

Pan Am*

canceled

0.42

Charlie's Angels *

canceled

0.48

Work It! *

canceled

0.61

Cougar Town

0.65

Missing

0.65

Body Of Proof*

0.66

Man Up *

canceled

0.66

The River*

0.66

GCB

0.80

Scandal

0.83

Castle

0.89

Last Man Standing

0.90

Private Practice

0.93

Revenge

0.99

Suburgatory

1.00

Happy Endings

1.01

The Middle

1.03

Don't Trust the B in Apt 23

1.04

Desperate Housewives

final season

1.04

Once Upon A Time

1.29

Grey's Anatomy

1.44

Modern Family

2.01

-
After two years of what seemed like face saving renewals of marginally rated dramas (V, Body Of Proof), ABC finds itself in a completely different position this season with several rookie dramas with reasonably good ratings.

From Revenge which I have predicted as "certain to be renewed" for quite some time, now to Scandal, which after a string of 2.0 adults 18-49 ratings I am moving up to "likely to be renewed", to GCB not far behind, but still a "toss up" for renewal or cancellation.

This is the last "regular" ABC Renew/Cancel Index post of the 2011-12 season. Next week Robert and I combine for our annual "Oddsmakers" final predictions for the season.

Why is Cougar Town just a "toss up" with its dreadful ratings instead of "likely to be canceled" or worse? Because of past (negative) experience, I'm keeping shows in their third seasons (even shortened ones) no lower than a "toss up" because of potential syndication related benefits.

*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

Notes:

- certain to be cancelled by May, 2012

:cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2012

- toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2012

- more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2012

- certain to be renewed by May, 2012

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

@Nick: Your typo would actually work on a comedy somewhere, I’d bet. Not LMS perhaps, too family-friendly. Raising Hope would be a great place to use it, though.

Rebecca

lol Yeah, I could picture Virginia Chance saying ondicators.

CASTLE – 58 (+3) Season Finale this Monday night!
THE MIDDLE – 50 (+2)
ONCE UPON A TIME – 20 (-2)
MODERN FAMILY – 39 (-3)

quote from CT [2.2]:
Ellie: I want to tell people about every moment with Stan…how he blows kisses in his sleep, and he scares himself when he sneezes. Do you remember the time he pooped in your mom’s purse? I mean, I had to hold it for him, but still….

chicc_o

ABC needs to renew:
1- Once Upon a Time : Best New Series no comparison
2- Revenge : Extremely HOT and can go where ever they want .
3- GCB : They can put it Thursday @ 8 and it will survive there

Sunday :
8: Once Upon a Time
9: The Beauty & The Beast (Best lead in )
10 : Castle (already established)

Wednesday :
8: The Middle
8:30 : Last Man Standing (Needs a push and if failed can be replaced by a Sabergatory and a new Comedy will Launch after Modern Family)
9: Modern Family
9:30 : Sabergatory / New Comedy Mid Season Replacment
10 : 666 Park Avenue (Can Success here , Revenge made it possible)

Scandal – Revenge – The Good Wife – OUAT – Grimm – If they can have those shows stay on then my week will be quite satisfied. For they go full circle in thoughtful entertainment.

asdf

Castle: Will be renewed, certainly, but for 13 episodes, or a full season?

Rebecca

CASTLE – 64 (+3)
THE MIDDLE – 46 (-2)
ONCE UPON A TIME – 19 (+3)
MODERN FAMILY – 38 (-3)

quote from CT [2.5]:
Laurie: Sad is when your foster brother loses an eye in a backyard wrestling match. True story. Pow! Sprinkler head.
Andy: Is that the one they call Cyclops?
Laurie: Weirdly, a different brother.

J

How in the world do the executives on TV make their decisions. Every time they produce a good show they just cancel it before it has a chance. I LOVE LOVE LOVE MISSING and like Body of Proof and they are canceling both of them and keeping stupid shows like Suburgatory, Cougar Town and possibly GCB?? I just don’t understand. Do they care what people want to watch ?? I think we’ve had enough reality TV to dumb down America. I mean can we please have only a small portion of the shows fall in to the reality category. I guess they want us to just turn our TV’s to the cable shows.

Gustavo

ABC is a very unusual network.So far didnt renewed anything.

Nick

CASTLE – 61 (-3)
THE MIDDLE – 44 (-2)
ONCE UPON A TIME – 22 (+3)
MODERN FAMILY – 40 (+2)

@Rebecca wrote +3 next to both OUAT and Castle, but only raised Ouat 2 so her vote is acceptable

PP would be a final season; Scandal and GCB would both be on the bench, with one of them replacing PP. Between DWTS cycles, The Batchelor takes the slot on Monday night, Malibu Country could move to 8pm, with maybe a Modern Family rerun at 8:30.

ABC shouldn’t even be trying to compete on Thursday at 8 against two of the three biggest shows on television when Wipeout costs almost nothing and does as well as anything else they could put in the slot. That means TGIF for comedy expansion, something we know ABC is open to; if you must renew LMS (I wouldn’t) it leads off Friday night.

Not sure which new drama would go best on Tuesday, nor which would fit the post-MF slot.