Indianapolis Colts corner back Josh Gordy comes in for a tackle on Kansas City Chiefs wide receiver Donnie Avery during the first half, Sunday, December 22, 2013, at Arrowhead Stadium. / Star photo

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In a little over a week, it will be the Indianapolis Colts hosting the Kansas City Chiefs.

At least that’s what the odds suggest. According to makeNFLplayoffs.com, the Colts have a 62 percent chance of earning the fourth seed by the end of Sunday’s games, with a 25 percent chance of sneaking into the second spot and a 13 percent chance of being third.

The Chiefs are shoehorned in at No. 5 no matter how the games play out.

You wonder, what’s the best first-round matchup for the Colts?

• We’ll start with the obvious one: nobody.

A week off, a bye, courtesy of earning the second seed.

There’s a 25 percent chance the Colts will beat Jacksonville and New England will lose to Buffalo. There’s also a chance I’ll drop those 15 pounds before I leave for Sochi, Russia, in February. That sounds like an awfully high probability to me, but as someone who can’t even balance a checkbook, I’m not going to argue with the math. I just don’t see New England gagging on a chance to earn the No. 2 spot and a bye against the likes of the Buffalo Bills.

Give the Colts a week off and we might even recognize the offensive line again.

• The next most favorable option is the most likely one, and it should happen when the Colts beat the Jaguars and the Patriots beat the Bills.

Colts-Chiefs, one more time.

I know it’s tough to beat any team twice, but this is a good matchup for the Colts. If they can keep Jamaal Charles under control, as they did in the first game, a 23-7 victory, they will make the Chiefs play left-handed. The Colts also did a marvelous job of taking away K.C.’s very average receivers, which bothered Alex Smith in the short-passing West Coast offense. There’s no reason to think they can’t do that again, especially with a healthy Greg Toler back in the starting lineup at cornerback.

Will they turn it over again four times? Unlikely, but even in a clean game, I see the Colts winning at home.

The only mild hesitation is that the Chiefs will have a bit of a bye week this Sunday. With the Chiefs locked in as the No. 5 seed, Andy Reid already has said he’s resting several starters. That means healthier bodies and fresher legs for the Colts rematch.

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Reid has had success in Philadelphia resting players in meaningless games down the stretch. He did it four times in Philly, and three times he won his first playoff game.

“If you look at the history of it, it’s been a 50-50 shot over the last three or four years by people who have done it,’’ Reid said. “It’s what you feel most comfortable with as a coach. The obvious benefit is to rest your guys and get them back to feeling a little bit fresher than what they are at the end of the season.

“You take the risk of the timing part of it. Sometimes that’s there, sometimes it’s not. Those are things you evaluate.’’

I won’t bother Colts fans with a recitation of the team’s history when resting starters in regular-season games. You’ve lived it. Many times, you’ve lived it. At least you won’t have to live it again this year.

• The worst of the three options?

The No. 3 seed and a home date with whichever team finagles its way into the No. 6 spot. Right now, it’s a race — a slow one — between Miami (which beat the Colts), San Diego (which always beats the Colts), Baltimore (which always wins at least one playoff game) and Pittsburgh (which needs a miracle of biblical proportions to sneak into that final spot).

According to the website, there are 16 possible outcomes in the four games involving the four teams.

Seven outcomes (43.8 percent) have Baltimore earning that sixth seed. Anybody really want to see the defending champions roll into Lucas Oil Stadium? And do we really want to deal with another week’s worth of Mayflower moving van stories? I do not.

Six outcomes (37.5 percent) result in the Dolphins getting the sixth seed. That wouldn’t be a bad matchup for the Colts, even though the Dolphins won in Lucas Oil earlier this year. This is the same team that got shut out at Buffalo one week ago. Of the four possible 3-vs.-6 matchups, this is the most favorable.

There are two scenarios (12.6 percent) where the Chargers get the sixth spot — NOOOOO, NOT THE CHARGERS!!! — and just one outcome, a 6.2 percent probability, of the earth rotating off its axis and the Pittsburgh Steelers getting that sixth spot. You really want to risk a one-and-done against Ben Roethlisberger?

Teams that must win in the final weekend to get into the playoffs always scare me. We’ve seen too many 9-7 late-season juggernauts roll on to the Super Bowl in recent years.