Hillary will win by 8 percentage points.

Hillary Clinton is well ahead in the polls. Opinion polls show her ahead by between 5% and 15% of the vote. Let’s go for the median average. That is 10%. I am rating her at a a bit below this.

Obama won by 6% last time. Hillary will have the advantages of peace since the USA does not have troops in Afghanistan or Iraq. Yes, the US Air Force is bombing enemy targets in Iraq and Syria but there are no soldiers or marines engaged in ground operations. There is prosperity. Despite the doomsayers on the Republican side the US economy is quite healthy. There economy is growing and unemployment is low. These redound to her favour since she is a Democrat like President Obama. She has not served in government for the past 4 years but there is no doubt that her reputation is to some extent linked to that of Obama. There is also incumbency as she would be one Democrat following another.

Hillary Clinton has other advantages. President Obama has very high approval ratings and can campaign for her. Her husband can also drum up support for her.

Who do the Republicans have? George W Bush ended his presidency with some of the lowest approval ratings of all time. He was not able to help his brother much in Jeb’s bid for the Republican nomination. George H W Bush is 92 and too frail to campaign.

Hillary’s running mate Kaine is blandness personified. There are no skeletons in his cupboard. He is at least presentable. He adds nothing to the ticket. I am mystified that she chose him. She should have picked an African American or a Hispanic to galvanise ethnic minority voters. They mostly vote for her anyway.

This blog is not a type writer for Hillary Rodham Clinton. She is forked tongued. She was stupidly irresponsible with her emails while she was Secretary of State. She has consistently defended the mass murder of civilians in Palestine. She calls the bombing of a UN school ”self defence.” She has advocated funding the Israeli Defence Force and providing it weapons for free as well as intelligence. She knows precisely what will be done with these weapons. Amnesty International, Human Rights Watch, Medicins San Frontieres the UN and so forth all tell the world what is occurring. Hillary Clinton like most of the US political establishment is an accessory to these crimes against humanity.

When asked a question by Wolf Blitzer as to whether some of the IDF’s actions had been excessive Hillary said that Israel was entitled to defend itself. She never uttered a peep of criticism of Tel Aviv. Then Bernie Sanders answered in more measured tones. He is Jewish so probably has some fellow feeling for the Jewish State.

Yet I still want Hillary to win. The only other person who stands any chance of being elected is Donald Trump. His is a narcissistic, loudmouth, Mammon worshipping, war mongering Islamophobic, ignorant, pathological liar. Only half of these things are true of Mrs Clinton.

Trump is such a woeful candidate that he is helping Mrs CLinton. Everyone changes their mind sometimes but he changes his mind continually. He will then not admit to having changed his mind. He mused about leaving NATO. The next day he said he was all for NATO. He said he opposed the liberation of Iraq in 2003 but he did the opposite. He has told so many provable lies. He has incited violent crime. These crimes occurred and he persists in urging his acolytes to beat up their opponents. How long before someone commits murder at his behest? He hinted that Hillary should be shot. He is so unhinged, so vile and vicious that he deters moderate voters. Many Republican elder statesmen refuse to give him their imprimatur. I would that John McCain would say that as Trump insulted the family of a soldier who gave his life for the USA that people should not vote for Trump. McCain stopped short of that.

Trump is liberal on social issues. This discomfits the Christian extremists. His claim to be against the liberation of Iraq and Afghanistan will irk those who idolise George W. Ted Cruz has said people should not vote for Trump. Trump is ripping the party apart. His running mate Mike Pence is uninspiring but not woeful.

It is August. Early days yet some say. Some electors change their minds between now and polling day. The way things are headed Hillary has a handsome lead. In recent times such a good lead has not evaporated. Of course the rules of psephology change from time to time.

There are some general factors that will work to the advantage of the Democrats whoever the candidates may be. The demography of the USA is changing. Among whites Republicans have a narrow majority. However, whites as a % of the US population are decreasing. African-Americans are 90% Democrat and their proportion of the population is stable. Hispanics are 20% of the people and their % is increasingly rapidly. They tend towards the Democrats by about 60% – not as much as they once did. Asian-Americans are a small % of the population but they are very strongly pro Democrat. There are other factors. Religiosity is on the decrease. The most religious people tend to be Republicans. Younger voters tend towards the Donkeys not the Elephants. People are moving from the red states to the blue states more than the other way around.

People are increasingly liberal on gay issues. This means the Democrats are more attune to public opinion that the GOP is. There are continuous gun massacres. The Dems are amenable to gun control. Republicans have a tin ear for such concerns and simply want to allow anyone to carry a gun almost anywhere – even a military grade one.

The Republicans will probably rue the day that Trump was nominated. It is true that they establishment tried to stop him. Their man, Cruz, was little better in his opinions. Cruz is at least sane, intelligent and consistent.

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About Calers

Born Belfast 1971. I read history at Edinburgh. I did a Master's at UCL. I have semi-libertarian right wing opinions. I am married with a daughter and a son. I am allergic to cats. I am the falling hope of the not so stern and somewhat bending Tories. I am a legal beagle rather than and eagle. Big up the Commonwealth of Nations.