Nearly everyone feels that they don't deserve to be rich. They feel deep down that there is something inside them that is defective. They feel that they aren't fully formed. They feel that they are small inside. They are afraid that people will finally realize that they are a fraud on some level.

Is that the psychology of a rich person?

So many of us are still children deep inside. We were told over and over again that we were doing something wrong as children. Of course, we never lived up to our parents' expectations. We failed.

Then we went to school and repeated the same feelings of inadequacy.

Then we got a job and repeated the same feelings of inadequacy.

Not everyone goes through this but the vast majority do.

It is often only when we become adults and attain competency in a job that we start to feel that we are worth something inside. This is the beginning of feeling that we deserve to be rich.

It is impossible to get rich and stay rich without feeling you deserve it.

You will always sabotage yourself before you get rich. You don't ask for a raise to a level you deserve. You don't invest in stocks because you are afraid you will lose money.

But you do deserve to be rich!

You are a human being and, as such, have value. Real value. Are you perfect. Of course not. But you don't have to have perfection to be worth something. Perhaps even a lot.

You need to stop focusing on your faults and focus on your values. You are a good person. You do a good job at work. And so on.

You become what you focus on so stop focusing on your faults! Of course you should acknowledge them and try to correct them. But don't obsess over them. Heck, don't focus on them much.

Instead, focus on what you do well.

Dwell on your competencies, on the things you do well. You should be living your life here.

I know that I'm a poor proofreader. But I know I'm a pretty good writer. I could obsess over my poor skill. I could take courses in proof reading. I could study it til I get it right. But going through all that focuses my mind on the fact that I am a failure at proofreading. I will begin to think I don't deserve success. I will begin to think I don't deserve to be rich.

Instead, I should just hire someone to proofread and instead focus on the area where I am successful, writing. Then, I will have people compliment me. I gain some measure of importance in society. More importantly, I will revel in my competence. My self esteem will grow. I will feel that I deserve to be rich!

You can't get rich if you don't believe you deserve it. Change your mind by changing your focus.

July 20, 2017

I’ve put together two things to help you overcome that and become truly rich. Rich in money and rich in spirit.

The first is my amazing course The Psychology of Massive Wealth. This is an online course where you receive training every single week for months so that you can truly understand and actualize the content without getting overwhelmed.

The second is that I have put together a live weekend seminar with Adam Markel, truly one of the masters of a wealth mentality. He has literally trained tens of thousands of people on how to actually get rich without selling out. He is one of the best trainers in the world today.

The live seminar will literally change your mind! Change it to where you want it to be!

July 18, 2017

One of the keys to your trading success is understanding that your techniques are assets of your trading business.

Our trading business has really just three assets:

1. Money

2. Our brains

3. Our techniques

So our techniques are one of our key assets.

A profitable technique is like a business with a successful line of shoes. That line of shoes should continue to make us money for years.

Yet most people take that incredible asset and trash it. They don’t follow the rules. They don’t trade every day. They cherry pick instruments and trades.

In other words, they actively try to destroy that asset rather than nurture or grow that asset!

Amazing!

I’ll talk in other posts why I think that is but it never ceases to amaze me how little thought is given to this asset.

They would really pay attention to it if it was a regular business but they trash it in their trading business.

Your goal as a trader is to accumulate assets, all three of the ones listed above.

One of the amazing things is that you can create a legacy for your children with these trading assets. You can turn over your profitable technique to your children and let them build even more wealth!

You might say that your kids will never trade. They don’t have to! Turn over the trading to your broker and let them do it!

Stop and look at your trading business as a real business. You techniques are one of the key critical assets of that business.

We have an amazing course that really can turbo charge your trading business. It’s called How To Quit Your Job Trading Stocks and Options. This online course is created to give you all the info you need to create a trading business trading stocks and options.

I know you would profit tremendously from the course. Click here to learn more. I’ve created a 4 part free video training that explains it and actually reveals a super cool technique.

July 17, 2017

I use a group of powerful techniques for short term trading of stocks. I find them to be very powerful so I use them just about every day. It is a great series of techniques if you want to make a living as a trader or make a nice second income.

This group of techniques are called Mean Reversion. What does it mean?

It simply means that the price of a stock will go back to its average. Let me give you an example that happened to me last week.

The chart show FXI which is an ETF which mimics the Chinese stock market. You can see that the price was coming down early in the period. Now look down and you will see a single black bar. That is a buy signal from my technique ETF Ecstasy (EE).

EE is telling me to buy on the close that day. So I did.

The market then took off, skyrocketing much higher.

The first profit taking point is the five day moving average which is the thin red line. You can see that the price closed above that right away. But I kept the position because it closed near the high of the day, thus showing a lot of strength.

Great trade! Lots of profits!

So why buy at that point?

Mean Reversion simply states that a market that has moved away from the average will bounce back to that average. You can see that happened perfectly here.

But it is important to only trade in the direction of the trend. EE uses the 200 day moving average to determine the trend.

So we had a bull market. Check.

The market moved sharply against the trend. Check.

Buy and look for the market to move back in the direction of the trend at least a little bit. Check.

I'm going to explain this Mean Reversion concept in futures emails to you because I think it is amazingly profitable.

I also just launched a brand new service called Smith's Stock Swing Trader (SSST). I'm really proud of this service because it is so easy to use and, so far, incredibly profitable.

July 15, 2017

You need a computer. But that computer doesn’t need to be very sophisticated. I often trade on computers that are years old. The computer I am typing this on is almost four years old and it is my main computer.

In fact, you can trade on your phone or tablet so you don’t even need a computer anymore!

You need an internet connection. I like a fast connection but you don’t really need one. You need a stable connection that doesn’t cut you off all the time. I’ve traded in third world countries where the internet went in and out. I could run my trading operations but it was frustrating.

You need a charting program. There are many great charting programs that are free. I use ProRealTime.com and Stockcharts.com. They both have great services that are free. Real time prices cost money on both of them but position traders don’t need that.

In addition, your broker is almost certainly going to give you free charting. It’s usually OK but I prefer the two above because I can program them with my super tricky indicators.

So the bottom line is that you need to pay for internet and that’s it!

July 7, 2017

There is a potential massive rally in gold coming up. The potential is so huge that I wanted to share it with you right away.

I co-wrote my first book in 1980 on seasonal price tendencies. Seasonals are repetitive price patterns that occur at the same time every year.

We are now coming up to the most important time of the year for gold. Prices rally about 90% of the time in August!

Take look at the chart. The blue line shows what the price of gold has done so far this year. The black line shows the expected seasonal price movement. As you can see, the price has followed the seasonal pretty well.

But the killer is the how the black line shoots up in just a few short weeks. That shows that the price of gold normally shoots up strongly.

You can invest in gold through stocks, options, futures, and CFDs.

I’m going to be looking for any sign of strength starting in about a week as a buy signal.

June 16, 2017

Amazon announced today that they are buying Whole Foods (otherwise known as Whole Paychecks). This is powerful for several perspectives.

Amazon is moving more and more into the real world. I’m in Beverly Hills right now. I can order from Amazon and two local grocery chains and have the food or products delivered to me in less than two hours! Now I’ll be able to have my Whole Foods delivered to me as quickly.

In addition, AMZN has been opening bookstores over the last year to experiment with different business models from traditional book stores.

What this also means is that the prices in Whole Foods stores are about to be slashed. Amazon knows how to run lean, better than Whole Foods. So we can now expect Whole Foods to compete on price with the big grocery chains which means Whole Foods revenues are about to explode.

It is also setting up a collision with Walmart. Walmart is now the country’s biggest grocer and they do an amazing job at it. Amazon is taking the high end with Whole Foods but you can bet that Amazon will find a way to dive even deeper into Walmart’s territory as the same time Walmart is trying to revive their online presence to attack Amazon.

These are two great companies but Amazon has been online longer. In addition, Amazon has made themselves a platform for all sellers so they are a bigger footprint. I never want to count out Walmart but I give the edge to Amazon.

I’m really bullish on AMZN stock! I think today’s announcement is a great opportunity for both swing traders and position traders to buy AMZN.

The best place to keep up with my specific stock trades is my weekly video newsletter, TradeSmith. Please check it out here.

June 12, 2017

Friday’s tech savaging continues today. The NASDAQ has already dropped almost 5% from high to low in just two days.

The size of the move on Friday combined with the heavy volume suggest that this is a major high for the index. We are seeing other sectors, such as consumer staples and utilities rallying sharply as investors move from tech to safe havens.

I liquidated nearly all my tech position by Monday and will wait until I think of investing in this sector soon from a position perspective.

But, as a swing trader, I’ll be buying Facebook (FB) if it closes higher on the day. Right now, as I write this, we are seeing an initial plunge but now FB is rallying sharply. This type of price action usually leads to a pop to the upside that is very traceable and I look to make some money. I’ll be taking profits of about $4 per share at about 151.00.

June 7, 2017

I have gone around the world and asked a simple question: Are you overpaid? I’ve probably asked that question to 10,000 people. I’ve only had one person answer yes.

That means that 9999 people were working for less pay than they deserve. You are probably in that group.

I often think about what it is like to work at a job where you are underpaid. What does it do to your psyche and self -esteem?

What does it do to you when you constantly feel under-appreciated? I think it must slowly degrade your self-esteem and self-worth. How is it possible to get rich with that gnawing at you?

I think few people have a job which allows them to get paid fairly and help them grow as a person. And that is a major problem in the world! It’s hard to have world peace when people are cranky about their job!

How can you become the person you should be when you spend 10 hours every day in work and commutation? And then you are tired when you get home?

You NEED to take control of your job! What do you want out of life? Will your job be the tool to get you there?

We offer a super cool online course called How To Quit Your Job Trading Stocks and Options. You can find out more info by clicking here now.

Trading stocks and options is not for everyone but it may be just perfect for you.Check it out here.

March 15, 2017

Free video training, I show you the elements of Holistic Trading and how you can make money trading with these concepts.

I show you specific techniques from the Holistic Trading arsenal. Take them and make money with them!

CourtneySmith.com/Second-part-of-your-Training/

Holistic Trading is a way of investing that takes a 360 degree look at the market so you get a very deep understanding of the current market. Very little will surprise you. You will feel a sense of ease as you will know what's going to happen before it happens. You will understand who is controlling the market and how to trade profitably with that information.

I explain it in this free video training which you can see by clicking here.

October 20, 2016

For the first time in over 100 years, we will have two candidates who are not in favor of free trade.

Both Hillary and the Donald believe that other countries are taking advantage of the US. They both want to through up high tariffs and duties.

The Donald will renegotiate with everyone and, of course, it will be beautiful and great after he is through negotiating.

Hillary will just hit a giant reset button. Oh wait, that didn’t work in Russia.

This is hurting the stock market right now. The market believes that free trade is good for the global economy. Shutting down global trade means a slower economy if not a recession/depression.

The last time we had a trade war was back in the 1930’s when just about every country went to war in trade. This was a major cause of the Great Depression. Suppressing trade means less sales for companies and therefore less profits and therefore laying people off.

But some people say, like Donald and Hillary, that the US is being taken advantage of. That other countries are using their currencies to take business from us. That they can export to us but we can’t export to them.

That is certainly true.

But we need to weigh that against having a Great Depression. I’ll take the small problems.

I doubt that Congress will back wholesale changes to the trade agreements in place so I don’t expect a lot of change when the new President comes in. But Presidents have a lot of power and can cause a trade war on their own if they want. Just not as extensive.

Look for the markets to keep suffering while the election is going on. This election will not cause a bear market but it will keep a cap on any big bull market.

P.S. Check out my free podcast on iTunes to keep abreast of these issues and their effect on the market. Search for Wealthbuilder.

September 22, 2013

Sept. 22, 2013 (Allthingsforex.com)
– Following the Fed’s decision to abstain from reducing the size of
monthly asset purchases, in the week ahead traders will shift their
focus from the U.S. dollar to the euro as the outcome of the German
elections and economic data from the euro-zone offer more insights on
the future policies of the leader of the union and the state of the
17-nation economy.

In preparation for the new trading week, here is the outlook for the
Top 10 spotlight economic events that will move the markets around the
globe.

1. EUR- Germany Federal Elections, Sun., Sept. 22, all day event.

At the time of writing of this article, the latest polls pointed to a
clear win for Chancellor Angela Merkel- the country’s first female
chancellor and only the fourth chancellor since World War II to win a
third term. Ms. Merkel’s Christian Democratic bloc is set to take about
42.5% of the vote and that would give her a one-seat majority in the
lower house of the Bundestag, just enough to govern without trying to
find a coalition partner (although a coalition to assure more
significant majority would likely be formed in upcoming weeks). A third
term for Chancellor Merkel should be euro-positive as German policies
remain unchanged. Germany is the biggest contributor in the 496 billion
euro bailout fund and the current programs of austerity in exchange for
financial aid will probably continue to be the blueprint of choice for
German participation in future bailouts. The euro could extend its
recent rally towards the 2013 high around $1.37.

The chronic contraction in the euro-zone’s manufacturing and services
sectors finally ended a couple of months ago and both indexes are
expected to continue to improve. The Manufacturing PMI is forecast to
register another positive month with a reading of 51.8 in September from
51.4 in August, while the Services PMI also heads higher with a
preliminary estimate of 51.1 in September from 50.7 in the previous
month. Solid PMI reports should keep the EUR supported.

This could be yet another report that might give the euro a boost
next week. The business outlook in the euro-zone’s largest economy is
forecast to be more optimistic with the Ifo index forecast to rise to
108.4 in September from 107.5 in August.

In the first quarter of the year, the U.K. economy managed to avoid
an unprecedented triple-dip recession and expanded by 0.3% q/q. The
economy grew at an even faster pace by 0.7% q/q in the second quarter
and this number is expected to be confirmed as the final Q2 2013
reading. The report could serve as a reminder that the U.K. recovery is
on the right track and could keep the GBP rally intact.

7. USD- U.S. GDP- Gross Domestic Product, the main measure of economic activity and growth in the world’s largest economy, Thurs., Sept. 26, 8:30 am, ET.

There might be another upward revision on the horizon with the final
Q2 GDP reading forecast to show the economy growing faster by 2.7% q/a
in the second quarter, compared with the previous estimate of 2.5% q/a.
The USD could benefit from accelerating U.S. economic growth which could
raise the odds that, despite of the decision to sit on the sidelines in
September, the Fed might announce the tapering of asset purchases
before the end of the year.

Inflationary pressures in Japan have been on the rise in recent
months and could stay that way with the National core inflation gauge
forecast to remain at 0.7% y/y in August, same as the reading in July.
With the index exiting deflation territory and heading towards the Bank
of Japan’s 2% inflation target, the report could reduce expectations
that the Japanese central bank will need to step up its QE campaign,
which could mean less pressure on the yen.

10. USD- U.S. Consumer Sentiment, the University
of Michigan’s monthly survey of 500 households on their financial
conditions and outlook of the economy, Fri., Sept. 27, 9:55 am, ET.

After the disappointing drop in the preliminary estimate, the U.S.
consumer sentiment index is forecast to be revised slightly higher to
78.2 in September, but still down from 82.1 in the previous month. The
USD will continue to feel the pressure if the U.S. economic data weakens
and eliminates the chance of a Fed taper in 2013.

September 1, 2013

Sept. 1, 2013 (Allthingsforex.com)
– Although shortened by the Labor Day holiday, the week ahead promises
to deliver a busy start to the month of September as traders watch the
monetary policy decisions by five major central banks and dissect the
results of the U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls report to gauge the odds of a
taper announcement at the Fed’s upcoming September 17-18 meeting.

In preparation for the new trading week, here is the outlook for the
Top 10 spotlight economic events that will move the markets around the
globe.

After reducing the benchmark rate by 25 bps last month, the Reserve
Bank of Australia will not be in a hurry to cut rates again in
September. But this doesn’t mean that the central bank is completely
done with the rate cuts going forward, especially if the “two-speed”
Australian economy continues to underperform because of slowing demand
from China and other big trading partners. If this is the case in the
months ahead, the Reserve Bank of Australia could be forced to announce
another 25 bps rate cut by the end of the year. The Aussie dollar has
fallen significantly in recent months and could stay under pressure if
the central bank makes it clear that policy makers are keeping the door
open to further monetary policy easing.

Manufacturing activity in the U.S. has regained traction after the
index unexpectedly dropped in contraction territory with a reading of
49.0 in May, but we could see a small pullback to 54.2 in August from
55.4 in July.

In the second quarter of the year, the euro-zone economy finally
ended the six quarters long recession. The revised estimate is expected
to confirm that the economy returned to growth and expanded by 0.3% q/q
in Q2 after contracting by 0.2% q/q in the first quarter. The end of the
recessionary period and the expansion of the manufacturing and services
sectors have managed to instill optimism that the economy might be
turning a corner. The EUR could continue to benefit from such
expectations until the Fed begins to reduce the size of its monthly
asset purchases.

The Bank of Canada will not be an exception from all other major
central banks that are not in a rush to call the end of the easy
monetary policy cycle. Policy makers will be likely to leave the
benchmark rate at the current 1.0% level. Compared with the rest of the
major central banks, the Bank of Canada and the Reserve Bank of New
Zealand still remain as the most likely candidates to hike rates.
However, such decisions would probably be pushed further into 2014,
maybe even 2015.

Economic conditions have improved and inflationary pressures have
risen in the last couple of months, creating an environment in which the
Bank of Japan wouldn’t need to get more aggressive for the time being.
However, the central bank will be likely to reaffirm its commitment to
open-ended QE until the 2% inflation target is in sight. As the monetary
policies of the Fed and the Bank of Japan diverge in the months ahead,
the U.S. dollar should be able to resume its bullish trend against the
yen.

With the U.K. economy and its largest trading partner the euro-zone
improving, the Bank of England has no urgency to ease monetary policy
further and will maintain the benchmark rate and the size of the Asset
Purchase Program unchanged in September and maybe into the final quarter
of the year. The bank’s forward guidance will keep the pound’s future
direction closely linked to the results of upcoming economic data, with
the GBP strengthening on good reports and facing weakness if the data
disappoints.

Activity in the euro-area has been picking up, ending the chronic
contraction in euro-zone’s manufacturing and services sectors. But the
17-nation economy is still struggling with record high unemployment and
such economic backdrop will not be supportive of the European Central
Bank tightening monetary policy anytime soon. The USD should be able to
regain its strength against the EUR as the Fed gets ready to take the
first step towards monetary policy tightening while the European Central
Bank remains stuck in an easing mode.

8. USD- U.S. ADP Employment Report, a measure of job creation in the private sector of the U.S. economy, Thurs., Sept. 5, 8:15 am, ET.

Following the increase to 200K in July, job creation in the U.S.
private sector is forecast to slow to 180K in August. A better than
expected data should set an optimistic mood going into the non-farm
payrolls report on Friday and could give the USD a boost.

After a weaker than expected reading for July and the downward
revisions for May and June, we could see stronger job creation in August
with the economy forecast to add up to 180K jobs compared with 162K in
the previous month, while the unemployment rate stays at 7.4%. An upbeat
NFP report could trigger a U.S. dollar rally on expectations that
tapering of monthly asset purchases may be announced right after the
Fed’s two-day meeting on September 17-18.

August 11, 2013

Aug. 11, 2013 (Allthingsforex.com)
– The euro will take the center stage in the week ahead as traders
anticipate the GDP estimate from the euro-zone to confirm expectations
that the 17-nation economy has finally returned to growth in the second
quarter of the year.

In preparation for the new trading week, here is the outlook for the
Top 10 spotlight economic events that will move the markets around the
globe.

Abenomics is expected to continue to make a positive impact in Japan
with the GDP estimate forecast to show that the world’s third-largest
economy stayed on a growth path, expanding by 0.9% q/q in the second
quarter of 2013 after ending the recession and growing by 1.0% q/q in
the first quarter of the year. The JPY strength could continue as
positive economic data from Japan reduces expectations of the need for
additional easing measures by the Bank of Japan.

Inflationary pressures in the U.K. are expected to pull back to 2.8%
y/y in July from the 2.9% y/y reading in June. Subdued inflation and
upbeat economic data from the U.K. have significantly reduced the odds
of more easing by the Bank of England, fueling a GBP rally that could
extend if the economy strengthens further.

The trend of improvement in the economic outlook is expected to
continue with the ZEW index forecast to show a reading of 40.3 in August
compared with 36.3 in the previous month. A more optimistic outlook
should keep the euro supported.

Consumer spending in the U.S. is forecast to increase but at a slower
pace by 0.2% m/m in July compared with 0.4% m/m in the previous month.
The pressure on the USD could increase if economic data from the U.S.
begins to soften.

As the new Governor Mark Carney stated last week, the Bank of England
has designated 7% unemployment as the threshold level to signal the end
of easy monetary policy. Similar to the July meeting, a 9-0 vote
against more QE will not be a surprise and will make it clear that
policy makers are not in a hurry to do more easing. The GBP should
remain well bid if the minutes reveal that expansion of the Asset
Purchase Program is off the table for the time being.

In the first quarter of the year, the euro-zone economy failed to
return to growth and contracted by 0.2% q/q. However, the prolonged
recession may have ended in the second quarter with the 17-nation
economy forecast to grow by 0.2% q/q. With the recessionary period of
three consecutive quarters finally coming to an end, the EUR rally could
extend further on optimism that the euro-area might be turning a
corner.

U.K. consumers are expected to keep their wallets open with retail
sales forecast to register a larger increase by 0.7% m/m in July
compared with the 0.2% m/m in June. A strong retail sales report could
give the GBP a boost.

Another month of expansion in the U.S. industrial sector is forecast
to bring the overall industrial production gauge higher with a 0.5% m/m
increase in July, after growing by 0.3% m/m in the previous month.

Housing starts are expected to maintain their upward momentum with an
increase by 910K in July from 840K in June, while building permits inch
closer to the one million mark. The USD could benefit from a report
that confirms that the housing market recovery is still intact.

10. USD- U.S. Consumer Sentiment, the University
of Michigan’s monthly survey of 500 households on their financial
conditions and outlook of the economy, Fri., Aug. 16, 9:55 am, ET.

The preliminary estimate of the U.S. consumer sentiment index for the
month of August is forecast to show a reading of 85.6, slightly higher
than 85.1in July. A weekly sequence of decent U.S. economic data should
keep the expectations of a Fed tapering in September unchanged.

August 4, 2013

Aug. 4, 2013 (Allthingsforex.com)
– In the week ahead, traders will watch closely the monetary policy
decisions of the Reserve Bank of Australia and the Bank of Japan, as
well as the Bank of England inflation report, while also keeping an eye
on a sequence of data that should offer more insights on the
sustainability of the recovery in the U.K. and the euro-zone.

In preparation for the new trading week, here is the outlook for the
Top 10 spotlight economic events that will move the markets around the
globe.

The final reading is expected to be in line with the preliminary
estimate which showed activity in the euro-zone services sector inching
higher to 49.6 in July from 48.3 in June. With the manufacturing sector
finally expanding after a year and a half of contraction, the EUR could
stay supported as the services index gets closer to the 50 boom/bust
line.

Another strong report is expected from the U.K. services sector with
the index forecast to jump to 57.4 in July from 49.6 in June. The GBP
could attract more bids if the report is as good as anticipated which
will reduce the odds of more easing by the Bank of England.

Consumer spending in the euro-area is forecast to drop by 0.6% m/m in
July compared with the 1.0% m/m increase in the previous month. A weak
retail sales data could weigh on the EUR on expectations that the
European Central Bank would be stuck in an easing mode longer than the
Federal Reserve and other central banks.

Activity in the U.S. services sector is expected to pick up the pace
with the ISM Non-Manufacturing Index forecast to increase to 53.2 in
July from 52.2 in June. Despite of the Fed’s assurance that monetary
policy will remain accommodative for the “foreseeable future”, further
improvement in U.S. economic data could give the USD a boost on
expectations that tapering of asset purchases may be still on track for
September or October.

The inconsistency of the Australian economic reports in recent months
and signs of a slowdown in China, Australia’s largest trading partner,
have increased the odds of a rate cut by the Reserve Bank of Australia.
This is why a 0.25% reduction at this meeting would not be a surprise.
The Australian dollar could see pressures rising if the Reserve Bank of
Australia cuts the benchmark rate or hints of an impending rate cut in
the near future.

Months of consistent improvement in the services and the
manufacturing indexes have shown promising signs that the U.K. is on a
path to recovery. The report is expected to be in line with this trend
as industrial production grows by 0.7% m/m in June after a flat reading
in May. The GBP should be able to maintain its bullish stance if the
U.K. economic data continues to boost optimism.

After rising by 0.1% m/m in June, the Swiss inflation gauge is
forecast to return back in deflation territory with a drop by 0.3% m/m
in July. Should deflation continue to be an issue, the Swiss National
Bank will be in no hurry to let go of the franc ceiling which was set at
1.20 per euro in September, 2011.

While the CPI remains above the Bank of England’s 2% target at 2.9%
y/y, inflation in the U.K. has subsided from record highs above 5% last
year. If policy makers expect this trend to continue and forecast a
“nascent recovery” in the months ahead, the report will reduce the
probability of more QE by the Bank of England and could boost the GBP as
an alternative to currencies whose central banks are committed to
monetary policy easing.

With economic conditions beginning to improve, the Bank of Japan
wouldn’t need to get more aggressive at this point but will be likely to
reaffirm its commitment to open-ended QE until the 2% inflation target
is in sight. As the monetary policies of the Fed and the Bank of Japan
diverge in the months ahead, the U.S. dollar should be able to resume
its bullish trend against the yen.

In the aftermath of last week’s four-year low reading of 326K, the
U.S. jobless claims are forecast to stay within range, rising slightly
to 335K. Although the non-farm payrolls were weaker than expected, the
USD should continue to benefit from improving labor market conditions in
the United States.

July 21, 2013

Jul. 21, 2013 (Allthingsforex.com)
– After several days of trying to gauge the odds of tightening of the
Fed’s monetary policy, in the week ahead traders will be back to
watching a combination of economic data that will offer more details on
the state of the world’s largest economies.

In preparation for the new trading week, here is the outlook for the
Top 10 spotlight economic events that will move the markets around the
globe.

1. USD- U.S. Existing Home Sales, the main gauge
of the condition of the U.S. housing market measuring the number of
closed sales of previously constructed homes, condominiums and co-ops,
Mon., Jul. 22, 10:00 am, ET.

The report could confirm that the housing market recovery is still on
the right track with sales of existing homes forecast to increase to
5.27 million in June, compared with 5.18 million in May.

Voters in Japan gave their support to Abenomics this weekend and the
weaker yen should contribute to the trend of improvement in the Japanese
economy, including the balance of trade which is forecast to show a
shrinking deficit of 150 billion yen in June compared with 996 billion
yen trade deficit in May. Signs that the economy is getting better could
lend some support to the yen on reduced expectations that the
government and the Bank of Japan would step up their efforts to devalue
the currency and to spur economic growth.

Although the indexes have been inching higher in recent months, the
chronic contraction in the euro-zone’s manufacturing and services
sectors is expected to continue. The Manufacturing PMI is forecast to
stay in contraction territory below the 50 boom/bust line for another
month with a reading of 49.1 in July from 48.8 in June, while the
Services PMI also heads a bit higher but still below 50 with a
preliminary estimate of 48.9 in July from 48.3 in the previous month. A
weaker than expected data should weigh on the EUR by confirming
expectations that the European Central Bank will remain stuck in an
easing mode.

With the kiwi dollar pushed lower in recent months and all other
central banks assuring the markets that monetary policy will stay
accommodative, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand would not be likely to
deviate from the current course. The NZD could weaken further if the
Reserve Bank of New Zealand still sees its currency as too strong and
hints that tightening policy will not be in the cards for the
foreseeable future.

Three consecutive quarters of contraction in the U.K. were followed
by a quarter of growth in Q3 2012 only to see the economy contracting
again by 0.3% q/q in the final quarter of last year. As a result, fears
of unprecedented triple-dip recession in the U.K. escalated.
Fortunately, in the first quarter of the year, the U.K. economy managed
to avoid another recession expanding by 0.3% q/q and is expected to grow
even stronger by 0.6% q/q in Q2 2013. The GBP could stage a rally as a
result of a better GDP report which coupled with the 9-0 vote against
more QE should reduce significantly the odds of more easing by the Bank
of England.

The U.S. jobless claims are forecast to reach 339K, staying close to
last week’s new record low of 334K. Another positive report from the
U.S. labor market should keep the USD supported on expectations of a Fed
tightening sooner rather than later.

Two months of rising inflationary pressures could push the Japanese
national core inflation gauge to 0.3% y/y in June from 0% y/y in May and
-0.4% y/y in April. With the index exiting deflation territory and
heading towards the Bank of Japan’s 2% inflation target, the report
could reduce expectations that the Japanese central bank will need to
step up its QE campaign, which could mean less pressure on the yen.

10. USD- U.S. Consumer Sentiment, the University
of Michigan’s monthly survey of 500 households on their financial
conditions and outlook of the economy, Fri., Jul. 26, 9:55 am, ET.

The U.S. consumer sentiment index is forecast to be revised slightly
higher to 84.0 in July from a preliminary estimate of 83.9. Another week
of decent U.S. economic data could keep the markets pricing the start
of the Fed tapering of monthly asset purchases in September/October.