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AUD/CAD Awaiting Range Breakout

In the last couple of weeks, AUD/CAD fell from a high in July of 0.9637 to 0.9450 as we can see in the 1H chart. Then the market started to consolidate at the end of last week between 0.9450 and 0.9528.

AUD/CAD 1H Chart 7/28(click to enlarge)

The 1H chart shows a slightly bearish market as price trades under the 200-, 100-, and 50-hour simple moving averages (SMAs). The 1H RSI has also tagged 30 and is staying under 60. This puts pressure on the 0.9450 low.

Now, in the medium-term, AUD/CAD is essentially neutral-bearish as we can see in the daily chart.

NZD/USD Daily Chart 7/28(click to enlarge)

The daily chart shows price holding under the 200-day SMA while the RSI holds below 60. However, we can see that price action has been choppy. Nonetheless because of the bearish bias, we should look fro the bearish breakout from the current range and we can expect more of a bearish outlook from a bearish breakout than a bullish outlook from a bullish breakout. For example, the range in the 1H chart is around 70 pips. A break below 0.9450 projected 70 pips lower targets 0.9380, which is near the July and 2015 low of 0.9373. In fact, the bearish outlook has a chance of extending even lower let's say towards 0.9350. On a bullish breakout above 0.9528 however, we have to worry about resistance around 0.9560-0.9580.