U.S. oil production is rising much faster than expected – 2.7.18

Shale executives have gone to great lengths to convince investors that they will not drill aggressively now that oil prices have rallied into the $60s. But in a new report released on Tuesday, the EIA essentially said that those assurances are just a lot of hot air. The EIA’s Short-Term Energy Outlook predicted that U.S. oil production would top 11 million barrels per day (mb/d) this year. Last month, the agency said that the U.S. wouldn’t hit that threshold until November 2019. The revision from just a few weeks ago is dramatic. In January the EIA estimated that the U.S. would surpass 10 mb/d at some point in February. But recently published data shows that the U.S. actually hit that milestone last November, and now, the agency says the U.S. actually averaged 10.2 mb/d in January. The EIA’s latest prediction, however, assumes the shale industry throws caution to the wind. The U.S. could hit 11 mb/d in 2018, a full year earlier than previously expected.

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