The 48 wins IS from the beginning of the season, as are the 70 and 20 wins. The formula I used predicted 43 wins for the knicks this season (see the chart in the middle with the caption “words, lines, numbers and colors” for predictions for all seven teams this season). Would be a little lower after the loss last night.

If I take all the games since the carmelo trade and before last night’s debacle, I get about 43 wins again (not surprising since we haven’t been much better/worse since the trade).

I’m not sure what you’re saying though about teams continuing to win at the exact rate that they have in the past. The Knicks have been around .500. By that logic, they should follow a pattern of win/loss/win/loss/win/loss throughout the entire season. That hasn’t been the case. They’ve had two six game losing streaks along with a stretch of 13 wins in 14 games. Much of that variation had to do with the quality of their opponents. Before last night, the Knicks had a moderately favorable schedule (especially considering how they’ve fared in the past against their upcoming opponents).

That said, that advantage is only marginal. That’s why the formula only predicts 43 wins. The real reason they have a shot at the 5th seed was because Atlanta has a particularly difficult schedule against opponents that they have had real trouble with (as evidenced by their disaster against Miami last night).

]]>By: dsulzhttp://KnickerBlogger.Net/math-soup-for-the-soul-possibilities-for-eastern-conference-playoff-seeding/#comment-322724
Sat, 19 Mar 2011 19:26:43 +0000http://KnickerBlogger.Net/?p=6448#comment-322724I don’t really get how you come out with 48 wins. If we’d started with Melo from the beginning of the season, perhaps.

Overall though, I think all this analysis, great as it is, is kind of beside the point. Past behavior is the best prediction of present behavior. We were two games over .500 pre-Carmelo. With Carmelo we have a .500 winning percentage. I see no reason to believe why we will do particularly better down the stretch. We have 14 games left. Using my first grade arithmetic skills we can see that if past winning % is a predictor of future winning % we will win 7 or 8 of our final remaining 14. Which will leave us with 42-43 wins.

You could also make the argument that we’ll finish worse because we’re playing a lot of shitty teams down the stretch and we’ve made a habit of losing to shitty teams since we got Melo.

John Kenney: @21 I wasn’t saying the players should tank or have that mindset. I’m saying that as a fan, when I think about the losses we’ve been having, while frustrating, they might help the team some in the long run, given we stay at least at the 7th seed.

ha, this occurred to me in a different way the other day, which was that losing two to Indiana helped to ensure NJ misses the playoffs and cuts down the chances of Williams staying there a bit.

]]>By: John Kenneyhttp://KnickerBlogger.Net/math-soup-for-the-soul-possibilities-for-eastern-conference-playoff-seeding/#comment-322541
Fri, 18 Mar 2011 22:39:44 +0000http://KnickerBlogger.Net/?p=6448#comment-322541@21 I wasn’t saying the players should tank or have that mindset. I’m saying that as a fan, when I think about the losses we’ve been having, while frustrating, they might help the team some in the long run, given we stay at least at the 7th seed.
]]>By: nicoshttp://KnickerBlogger.Net/math-soup-for-the-soul-possibilities-for-eastern-conference-playoff-seeding/#comment-322539
Fri, 18 Mar 2011 21:58:13 +0000http://KnickerBlogger.Net/?p=6448#comment-322539Unless the Knicks go on a rampage the next 3 weeks they’re going to be an underdog no matter who they face. I think Orlando would probably give us the best chance of winning- when Jameer Nelson struggles shooting they’re very beatable. If he’s on the Knicks can probably forget it but if he struggles enough that the Knicks guards can go under the high screen at least some of the time and keep him out of the paint they have a decent chance no matter what Howard does. Their forwards are also their weak spot defensively so I think that gives the Knicks some hope as they don’t really have good match-ups for either Carmelo or Amar’e (putting Howard on Amar’e risks both foul trouble and leaving the middle wide open neither of which Orlando’s going to want to do. Barring Orlando I’d say Chicago- less playoff experience Boston/Miami and an offense that can sputter at times- I also wonder if they have that extra playoff gear or if they’re playing pretty much at maximum level right now. Unfortunately if we stay at 6/7 it’s probably going to be Boston or Miami in which case hope for injuries- or that TD and Billups can shoot 75% from three all series long!
]]>By: max fisher-cohenhttp://KnickerBlogger.Net/math-soup-for-the-soul-possibilities-for-eastern-conference-playoff-seeding/#comment-322538
Fri, 18 Mar 2011 20:47:00 +0000http://KnickerBlogger.Net/?p=6448#comment-322538fushknicken, I tried a couple of other samples to test how the formula works when you do a division like this: the Heat and the Lakers.

The Lakers project as a 44 win team vs. .500 or worse teams and a 65 win team vs. .500 or better teams.

It’s possible that many teams play down to their competition, or that I shouldn’t be adjusting linearly for SOS, or that this four team sample is just skewed. In any case, you can see that although the projections all seem to favor the “vs. better than .500″ schedule, the difference between the Knicks’ projection and these others is still huge.

A more conservative estimate (though still not totally thorough) would involve me halving the effect of SOS

Miami and Chicago will be a lot tougher, IMO – I wouldn’t put much stock in the regular season results.

]]>By: d-marhttp://KnickerBlogger.Net/math-soup-for-the-soul-possibilities-for-eastern-conference-playoff-seeding/#comment-322535
Fri, 18 Mar 2011 18:55:44 +0000http://KnickerBlogger.Net/?p=6448#comment-322535I know I’m in the minority, but I’d much rather play Orlando than Boston, Miami or Chicago. I know Dwight eats us for lunch and we can’t stop him, but if our biggest defensive challenge is a pure low post scorer who can’t shoot free throws, I’ll take it. The rest of the team just doesn’t scare me that much (I know, Nelson torched us last game, but he was Toney-esque from the outside)

This is NOT to say that we wouldn’t be pretty heavy underdogs, I just think Orlando is more flawed than the others and could be riper for an upset.

]]>By: Robert Silvermanhttp://KnickerBlogger.Net/math-soup-for-the-soul-possibilities-for-eastern-conference-playoff-seeding/#comment-322534
Fri, 18 Mar 2011 18:34:11 +0000http://KnickerBlogger.Net/?p=6448#comment-322534As long as the Knicks make the playoffs and the Rockets don’t, the Knicks will have the lower draft pick
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