Report

Towards tighter markets before peak oil demand

August 29th 2018 - 14:51

Over the last few years the oil price has experienced significant changes. From well over 100 dollars per barrel in the pre-2014 high oil price world, the price dropped to as low as 30 dollars per barrel in early 2016. Since then, it has embarked on a trajectory of gradually rising prices, reaching close to 70 (WTI) or 80 (Brent) dollars per barrel by mid 2018.

In this paper we aim to discuss the questions and uncertainties that, in our view, matter the most for the future of oil markets and the oil industry. Whilst discussing different scenarios we will not refrain from focusing on the scenario that we consider the most likely (rather than giving an extensive overview of potential scenarios). We will do so for three different timeframes:

Over the last few years the oil price has experienced significant changes. From well over 100 dollars per barrel in the pre-2014 high oil price world, the price dropped to as low as 30 dollars per barrel in early 2016. Since then, it has embarked on a trajectory of gradually rising prices, reaching close to 70 (WTI) or 80 (Brent) dollars per barrel by mid 2018.

In this paper we aim to discuss the questions and uncertainties that, in our view, matter the most for the future of oil markets and the oil industry. Whilst discussing different scenarios we will not refrain from focusing on the scenario that we consider the most likely (rather than giving an extensive overview of potential scenarios). We will do so for three different timeframes:

Lucia van Geuns is an experienced energy professional who held research positions at the Netherlands Organisation for Applied Scientific Research (TNO) and the Clingendael International Energy Programme (CIEP) after a career with Royal Dutch Shell (1980- 2002). She has a background in geoscience, petroleum engineering, economics & planning. Her research focuses on international energy market developments, energy transition issues and climate change policies. In her present role, she is a frequent speaker on (international) energy markets for various public and private stakeholders.

Lucia van Geuns is an experienced energy professional who held research positions at the Netherlands Organisation for Applied Scientific Research (TNO) and the Clingendael International Energy Programme (CIEP) after a career with Royal Dutch Shell (1980- 2002). She has a background in geoscience, petroleum engineering, economics & planning. Her research focuses on international energy market developments, energy transition issues and climate change policies. In her present role, she is a frequent speaker on (international) energy markets for various public and private stakeholders.