'Experts' NBA Fantasy DRAFT League

by Roland Beech, 82games.com

The day before the start of the NBA 2007-08 season saw an event of historic proportions!
Earth shattering revelations! World changing decisions being made!
...well, the first annual 82games.com 'experts' fantasy draft.

Most fantasy leagues are set up to make the participants sweat through the season on a daily basis -- start/bench decision, scanning the free agents for worthy pickups, wondering when to give up and drop the draft day disappointment, evaluating trades, and so on. Not at 82games! We're too busy for that, and have elected to go with the most PURE league you could imagine:

Standard 8-cat Roto league

Draft 12 players

All 12 players start the entire season

no pickups/drops/trades or roster changes of any kind

We sent out invitations to notable NBA minds, and while some were too cowardly to accept the challenge of pitting their wits against the cream of the crop (and you know who you are..), there were eventually twelve brave souls who stepped forward. Draft order was randomly set as follows:

Now to entice the troops to be a tad serious about this endeavor, 82games.com has thrown into the pot...

ONE THOUSAND DOLLARS!

...um, yeah okay, not a big incentive admittedly, but what the heck, the winner does get a grand (or in Jon Loomer's case along with some others giving it to charity...also note this league is in no way endorsed or affiliated with the NBA itself).

So the draft played out yesterday (thanks to Jon for taking the reins) and the tension was palpable as the team owners tried to construct a team that could contend for the title. Given the particulars of the setup (no replacements, all players drafted start all year) there was some aversion perhaps to 'injury risk' types compared to the usual fantasy league 'average draft placement' ratings.

Eric will no doubt be providing his thoughts on the draft over in the 82games Fantasy Section, but being the numbers oriented guy I am, I've gone ahead and projected out the standings for the various rosters using the NBA.com player projections which kindly provide a games played estimate and minutes per game estimate.

This last part is big -- a guy may be a star but if he only plays 50 games, that's 32 games in this league where he's giving you zeroes across the board...and he may not be as valuable as a journeyman off the bench playing 20 minutes a game, but all 82 games! That's the key to this league, guys who produce, and guys who produce over the full schedule!

So throwing the projections into the computer, and letting it whirl to add up the expected stats (including the zeroes for predicted games missed), reveals the following results:

Predicted Standings (by NBA.com player projections)

82games.com DRAFT SUPERSTARS League

Category Points

Pick

Team Owner

Fg%

Ft%

Pts

Reb

Ast

Stl

Blk

3Fg

Fg

Ft

Pts

Reb

Ast

Stl

Blk

3Fg

Total

10

Roland Beech - 82games

0.472

0.773

14838

5474

2898

1002

595

989

8

6

10

8

5

9

4

11

61

11

Andre' Snellings - Rotowire

0.451

0.790

14834

5203

2992

920

785

1016

1

10

9

4

7

5

12

12

60

4

Matt Berry - ESPN

0.475

0.771

14801

5026

3425

949

623

815

10

5

8

2

12

6

6

8

57

7

Justin Kubatko - Bask-Ref.

0.470

0.764

15012

5335

3315

840

676

871

5

3

11

7

11

3

8

9

57

2

Jeff Ma - Protrade

0.466

0.792

14673

6046

2471

1001

754

705

4

11

6

11

1

8

10

5

56

6

Rick Kamla - NBA TV

0.490

0.715

15575

6188

2878

833

724

609

12

1

12

12

4

2

9

3

55

1

Henry Abbott - TrueHoop

0.463

0.732

14282

5089

3242

1106

782

760

3

2

5

3

10

11

11

7

52

3

Brandon Funston - Yahoo!

0.472

0.766

13938

5638

2950

1108

672

575

7

4

2

9

6

12

7

2

49

5

Jon Loomer - NBA.com

0.461

0.777

14081

5734

3045

1074

582

648

2

7

3

10

9

10

3

4

48

8

Tommy Craggs - Writer

0.471

0.808

14105

5259

3023

816

495

915

6

12

4

5

8

1

1

10

47

9

Eric Wong - 82games

0.479

0.779

13011

5260

2871

906

601

747

11

8

1

6

3

4

5

6

44

12

Chris Liss - Rotowire

0.473

0.779

14728

4990

2560

954

514

571

9

9

7

1

2

7

2

1

38

And once again this just goes to show how smart computers are, picking me to win.

A balanced team is seen to edge out dominators like Snellings (king of blocks and 3fgm but last in fg%) and Kamla (tops in fg%, Pts and Reb but last in ft%).

Ah, but of course the standings are super tight based on the projections, and this league could dissolve into a last man standing affair when injuries and Artest-quality suspensions start taking their toll. Expecting the actual results to be anything close to the above is foolish.

Indeed if you ignore the games played projections and just pencil in every player for the full 82 games, the prediction looks quite different:

66 - Snellings
61 - Berry
55 - Ma, Kamla, Beech

If you were to use a different source for player projections (Rotowire, Eric's own RotoEvil #'s, etc) it would again shuffle up the rankings dramatically.

Still, since Andre' places in the top two in both looks, he is duly installed as the favorite.

We'll keep tabs on how the league unfolds through the year and if you're thinking you could take down this field, work on your qualifications and maybe we'll open it up to some more folks for 2008-09!