Special Topics

German Retail Sales Rise But Amass
No Momentumby Robert
Brusca December 1, 2009

German retail sales rose in October, reversing a drop in
September, but sales continue to show negative momentum. The sequential
nominal rates of growth from 12-months to 6-months to 3-months all are
clustered around a minus 3% growth rate. For real retail sales the
sequential growth rates show a move to more weakness despite the bump
up in sales in October. Real retail sales sequential growth rates are
getting to be more severe negative numbers.

Only clothing and footwear sales are showing any kind of
strength. Footwear and clothing sales are now up Yr/Yr along with car
registrations. Government programs have skewed spending toward car
purchases by offering incentives. Clothing and footwear are just
beginning to pick up. Still there is nothing upbeat about the German
consumer in this report. The rise in spending in October sure beats a
drop. But trends are not reversed or even blunted by this rise after
two months of steep drops.