JPM near $13B settlement — More changes at roundtable — More on Geithner

HOW POLITICS HURTS THE ECONOMY: ASIA EDITION — Per a Wall Streeter just back from a lengthy tour of Asia: “I am struck by ‎by the disconnect over TPP. In Asia it is seen as an elixir and crucial to the US ‘pivot.’ Here, the trade promotion authority necessary to get an agreement through Congress seems to be on life support. Piled on top of the President's cancelled trips, it just shows how domestic politics is impairing our standing in Asia.”

JPM (FINALLY) REACHES $13B SETTLEMENT — POLITICO’s Josh Gerstein and Jon Prior: “The Justice Department is expected to announce on Tuesday that it has reached a roughly $13 billion deal with JPMorgan Chase to settle civil investigations into faulty mortgage bonds sold in the lead-up to the 2008 financial crisis … It would be the largest settlement ever between Justice and a single company.

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“A key stumbling block was overcome in recent days, according to the source, when JPMorgan agreed it would not seek to recoup from the [FDIC] the part of the settlement related to bonds sold by Washington Mutual, which the bank bought in September 2008. … The deal would mark a victory for the Obama administration, which has been criticized for not being more aggressive in pressing cases against Wall Street” http://politi.co/1bKWQq4

MORE CHANGES AT THE FINANCIAL SERVICES ROUNDTABLE — M.M. hears that another lobbyist for the Financial Services Roundtable, Brian Tate, is on the way out. Tate, VP for Banking, follows top lobbyist Scott Talbott, in leaving the Roundtable. … Indeed, the Roundtable posted several openings last night including head of government affairs and senior gov’t affairs leader for asset management. Said spokeswoman Alison Hawkins: “Gov. Pawlenty is looking to bring in top talent.” Postings: http://bit.ly/17HbCic

GEITHNER ADDENDUM — TNR’s Noam Scheiber notes that former Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner did tell New York Magazine that it was “highly unlikely” that he would eventually work in the “finance” industry. A person familiar with Geithner’s thinking notes that he told multiple news outlets when leaving Treasury in January that he wanted to take some real time to figure out what he wanted to do next — which is what he did last nine months, while at CFR, writing his book, doing his university seminar series and speaking.

Geithner, this person said, never ruled out working in finance and always contemplated work for an investment firm separate and apart from positions with banks or investment banks, which were never on the table in his view. It's a distinction Geithner believes not everyone appreciates but was important to him in making his decision.

SORKIN ON GEITHNER — NYT’s Andrew Ross Sorkin: “[T]he idea that he’s selling out to the world he regulated doesn’t quite fit either. Maybe this is splitting hairs, but Warburg Pincus, a relatively obscure yet well-respected private equity firm has little to do with the big institutions Mr. Geithner once oversaw. Had Mr. Geithner gone to a large bank like Goldman Sachs, there would rightly be a steady stream of negative headlines, as there would be had he gone to BlackRock, one of the largest buyers of United States Treasuries … Is he trading on his relationships and his role in government? Yes and no. In his role as a fund-raiser for the firm, he will, of course, lean on relationships he has built up over many years.

“His reputation should help him get meetings and close deals. But he won’t be lobbying his former colleagues in Washington on bank regulations. One question that invariably will come up is his position on taxing carried interest, the share of private equity firms’ profits from deals. He has long been an advocate in the Obama administration of raising the current rate of 15 percent. (I have taken the same position in many columns.) If he changes course now that he is in industry, he deserves a drubbing. … While his hands may not appear squeaky clean, it hardly seems fair to call them dirty. http://nyti.ms/I0woOp

BARTRIOMO TO FOX — POLITICO’s Dylan Byers: “Fox Business News has hired Maria Bartiromo away from CNBC — a big get for Roger Ailes and a major loss for NBC Universal. Bartiromo, who worked under Ailes in her early days at CNBC, will bring much-needed life to Fox Business, which has languished in the ratings race and failed to make a name for itself on Wall Street. She may also have a role on Fox News …

‘After 20 years of groundbreaking work at CNBC, Maria Bartiromo will be leaving the company as her contract expires on November 24,’ a CNBC spokesperson said in a statement.

“Her contributions to CNBC are too numerous to list but we thank her for all of her hard work over the years and wish her the best.’ … In a statement to POLITICO, Bartiromo said she was ‘incredibly proud’ of what the CNBC had accomplished over the last two decades. ‘I want to thank all the people at CNBC who have been with me on this journey, and of course the viewers and investors everywhere for making me love every minute of it,’ she said.”

EVENS ON THE RISE — BI’s Julia La Roche: “We're going to go ahead and declare Kelly Evans the winner in the whole Maria Bartiromo leaving CNBC thing. Evans is the most obvious choice at the financial news network to replace Bartiromo. … She's insanely knowledgeable about markets and economics, putting her a cut above a lot of the talent that appears on TV. According to a network statement, Evans will be the host on an ‘interim basis’ with Bill Griffeth of ‘Closing Bell’ at 3 p.m. ET.” http://read.bi/18jK5Sp

THIS MORNING ON POLITICO PRO FINANCIAL SERVICES— Zachary Warmbrodt on the Bitcoin Senate hearing [ http://politico.pro/18KBqoE] … To learn more about Pro's subscriber-only coverage — and to get Morning Money every day before 6 a.m. — please contact Pro Services at (703) 341-4600 or info@politicopro.com.

GOOD TUESDAY MORNING — Quite a Monday Night Football game last night as the Panthers edged the Patriots 24-20 following a controversial non-call (or a call that was then turned into a non-call) on Tom Brady’s last ditch throw into the end zone. Pretty clear the refs blew the call. http://es.pn/1dcSL1c

DRIVING THE DAY — President Obama speaks this afternoon to the WSJ CEO Council meeting in DC around 3pm … Treasury Secretary Jack Lew speaks at the meeting at 8:45 a.m. … Senate Banking could vote on Janet Yellen nomination before a 10:00 a.m. housing finance reform hearing or it could wait until Thursday … Fed Chair Ben Bernanke speaks at 7:00 p.m. on “Communication and Monetary Policy” at the National Economists Club … Senate Banking has a “virtual currency” AKA bitcoin hearing at 3:30 pm

COMING FRIDAY: STATE OF AMERICANS’ FINANCES — National Journal’s Nancy Cook and Ron Brownstein are moderating an event on Friday at the Newseum, featuring Sheila Bair and others (and original polling) to talk about the state of Americans' finances right now.” http://bit.ly/1fQQc2j

WALKER MAKES NYC PLAY — POLITICO’s Elizabeth Titus: “Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker told a crowd of New York donors and activists on Monday that he’s not ruling out his congressional colleagues for the Republican nomination for president in 2016, only that a governor would be ‘ideal.’ Walker, himself a potential 2016 contender, repeated comments he made in an interview airing Sunday that the next Republican nominee should be someone voters see as a Washington outside …

“Walker also took a shot at the last Republican nominee, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, when a panelist asked how Republicans could win if an economic message like Romney’s wasn’t enough in 2012. Walker said that Romney “would have been a spectacular president’ but that his message failed to break through. http://politi.co/1gZnbVc

**A Message from the Campaign to Fix the Debt: As the budget conference committee works to reconcile the differences between the House and Senate budget resolutions passed earlier this year, we urge them to use this opportunity to improve our long-term fiscal situation. To learn more, please visit: http://bit.ly/HTIvgz

JEB BUSH DOES TOO — POLITICO’s Maggie Haberman: “Jeb Bush swore by his own conservative credentials and said that he’s a ‘practicing’ conservative who would put his record ‘up against anybody that’s in Congress right now’ in a question-and-answer session in New York City Monday night. Bush also told the crowd at the 92nd St. Y that he hasn’t yet had a family conversation about whether he’ll run for president in 2016. ‘I have not gotten advice and I have not sought it yet. There’s a time to make a decision and you shouldn’t make it too early. This is not the time for me. This is the time for me to show a little self-restraint” http://bit.ly/184QnYh

RUBIO ON HEALTH CARE “BAILOUTS” — Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) in a WSJ op-ed: “As the people's representatives, the U.S. Congress should completely eliminate the possibility of a bailout of insurance companies. On Tuesday I am introducing legislation that would eliminate the risk corridor provision, ensuring that no taxpayer-funded bailout of the health insurance industry will ever occur under ObamaCare. ... Americans are sick and tired of Washington politicians picking winners and losers — and nowhere is this practice more grotesquely evident than taxpayer-funded bailouts.” http://on.wsj.com/1hTJjBJ

FOREIGN POLICY BLAST: KERRY BLASTS THE “BABBLE” – POLITICO’s Magazine editor Susan B. Glasser interview Secretary of State John Kerry: “[H]e is consulted by the White House — recent evidence of his exclusion from major decisions and policy reviews to the contrary. ‘I can call the president anytime and see him anytime I need to,’ he told me in what amounted to his first extensive comments on the latest outbreak of second-guessing that has greeted his wide-ranging diplomatic forays. The secretary of state went on to dismiss the ‘Washingtonian… political babble’ that he is permanently cut out of the Obama loop, protested that ‘I’m inured to all of that by now’ and just generally told his critics in polite but insistent terms to pipe down” http://politi.co/17iSxAx

CHRISTIE SAYS GOP MUST BROADEN REACH — WSJ’s Patrick O’Connor and Heather Haddon: “New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie … challenged fellow Republicans on Monday to expand their base of support beyond traditional constituencies. ‘We have to reach out to other constituencies that have not voted for us in the past,’ Mr. Christie told a crowd of chief executives at the annual Wall Street Journal CEO Council. ‘We can't get the percentage of the Hispanic and the African-American vote that we got nationally and continue to think we can be a successful national party. We have to do better.’ … New Jersey Governor Chris Christie spared little in attacking Obamacare calling it ‘failure’ but refused to offer a replacement, suggesting both sides come together for a ‘robust debate’ http://on.wsj.com/1anXkSC

OBAMA TO INUSRERS: FIX MIGHT COST YOU — POLITICO’s Kyle Cheney and Jennifer Haberkorn: “Obama had some bad news for the insurance company CEOs who met him at the White House: his ‘fix’ might cost them. Obama asked the CEOs to reinstate millions of Americans’ health insurance plans that were cancelled because they fell short of coverage requirements under the law …

“The president offered the execs some sweeteners, but admitted they won’t necessarily add up to enough to cover the full brunt of added costs that the changes to the insurance market could create. … Obama’s frank talk with the CEOs raises the stakes for the short-term solution and is a reminder that as much as the health care law is the president’s signature achievement, he still needs industry buy-in for it to succeed in the long run.” http://bit.ly/1iqdCxN

NUMBERS IMPROPVE (STILL BAD) — NYT’s Sharon LaFraniere and Eric Lipton: “The latest evidence detailing the troubled startup of the website came as Obama administration officials said that as of mid-November, the number of people who had selected a marketplace plan was more than 50,000 — up from 27,000 in the entire month of October. That is still a fraction of the number the administration once hoped for.

Despite the progress, specialists are worried about whether they can meet the administration’s goal of enabling four in five users to enroll through the online federal exchange, HealthCare.gov, by the end of the month.

“One person familiar with the effort said a more realistic goal was that four out of five people ‘have a positive experience,’ which could include being redirected to customer service agents. … But specialists involved in the repair effort said technical issues may frustrate more users than administration officials suggest. And it is unclear how many fixes remain to be made, because the list keeps changing. White House officials and some computer experts say much of the criticism is overblown, designed more to scare would-be enrollees away from the insurance exchanges. But the concern is bipartisan http://nyti.ms/1hTEoRp

OBAMA HITS NEW LOW — WP’s Dan Balz and Peyton M. Craighill: “The flawed rollout of the Affordable Care Act has pushed President Obama to the lowest point of his presidency, with dwindling faith in his competence and in many of the personal attributes that have buoyed him … according to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll.

Opposition to the new health-care law also hit a record high in the survey, with 57 percent saying they oppose the president’s most significant domestic initiative

… [Obama’s] overall approval rating has fallen to 42 percent, having dropped six percentage points in a month, and equals his record low in Post-ABC polls. His disapproval rating stands at 55 percent, which is the worst of his presidency.” http://wapo.st/I0wQMr

MORE ON THE JPM SETTLEMENT — WSJ’s Devlin Barrett and Dan Fitzpatrick:

“ J.P. Morgan Chase … and the Justice Department Monday agreed to a landmark $13 billion settlement that resolves a number of legal headaches for the largest U.S. bank …

They added that the final piece holding up the deal — terms of $4 billion worth of aid to distressed homeowners — was completed Monday. … The consumer-relief component was the most complex part of the pact, and the Justice Department asked [HUD] for assistance in the final negotiations, according to the people familiar with the talks. They added that over the weekend, Attorney General Eric Holder and the Justice Department's lead negotiator, Associate Attorney General Tony West, held lengthy discussions with HUD Secretary Shaun Donovan as they put the finishing touches on the terms. http://on.wsj.com/184UbZJ

“The ESI shows that nationwide in 2012, 17.8 percent of Americans faced financial insecurity — a 1.1 percentage-point decline from 2011, and the lowest level since 2004. Despite the improvement, the number is high by historical levels.” http://bit.ly/1b4zVHM

FIRST LOOK II: RATE COALITION ON LOOPHOLES — Corporate-funded group The RATE Coalition in a statement going out this morning: “As talks on tax reform progress it is important that negotiators understand that closing loopholes is key to fundamental reform, though they should be included only as part of a tax reform agreement. Revenue directed at anything else will imperil a future agreement and impede America’s ability to compete in the international marketplace.”

MORE ON WARREN IN THE SENATE – American Banker’s Victoria Finkle: “There was little question about the extent of Sen. Elizabeth Warren's star power when she took office in January — it was just a matter of what she would do with it. After 10 months on the job, the Massachusetts Democrat seems to have embraced a dual approach to her work, using her national following to bring attention to issues like ‘too big to fail’ while also digging down into the weeds on illegal foreclosures, insurance licensing and other lower-profile topics …

“‘Get me wound up on pensions alone, and we could talk for the rest of the afternoon,’ she quipped in a sit-down interview late last month with American Banker. … What I care about is trying to be effective. So this first year has been about learning as many tools in the toolbox as I possibly can,’ she said” http://bit.ly/I20tNH

MERKEL SAYS SPYING HURTS TRADE DEAL – FT’s Stefan Wagstyl in Berlin:

“German chancellor Angela Merkel on Monday warned that the NSA spying scandal was putting pressure on talks to forge an EU-US trade pact, in the clearest sign yet of the affair’s impact on economic ties. Speaking before the German parliament, Ms Merkel urged Washington to provide ‘a clarification’ of its alleged mass surveillance as ‘a basis for building new transatlantic trust’. …

“In her toughest words on the scandal so far, the chancellor said: ‘The relationship with the US and the negotiation of a transatlantic free trade agreement are currently, without doubt, being put to the test by the accusations that have been aired against the US about the gathering of millions of bits of data.’” http://on.ft.com/17GyXeH

**A Message from the Campaign to Fix the Debt: As the budget conference committee works to reconcile the differences between the House and Senate budget resolutions passed earlier this year, we urge them to use this opportunity to improve our long-term fiscal situation. Under current projections, debt levels will exceed the size of the economy by 2035 and continue to grow indefinitely. While any final report from the conference committee cannot solve all of our fiscal problems, it could represent a critical first step. The Campaign to Fix the Debt urges that the committee report do the following: 1.) Put the debt on a downward path as a share of the economy. 2.) Fully offset any changes to the sequester cuts with better-targeted permanent savings and 3.) Include an expedited process for tax and spending reforms. To learn more, please visit: http://bit.ly/HTIvgz

** A message from Morgan Stanley: The Morgan Stanley Institute for Sustainable Investing, with The Economist Intelligence Unit, indexed 20 emerging and developed countries to examine the risks and opportunities of inclusive growth for investors. One pillar of the study focused on technology that can promote access to financial services. Opportunities to enhance inclusion through financial technologies are of particular note in Rwanda and Bangladesh. Rwanda's large financial inclusion needs are complemented by supportive policy, a fast-developing high-tech sector and a business environment that punches above the low-income country's weight. The need for financial inclusion remains strong in Bangladesh despite the country's pioneering role in microfinance. For more risk-averse investors, attractive markets for financial-inclusion solutions can be found in advanced economies, such as the U.K., the Netherlands and the U.S. Read more from Morgan Stanley. **

About The Author

Ben White is POLITICO Pro's chief economic correspondent and author of the “Morning Money” column covering the nexus of finance and public policy.

Prior to joining POLITICO in the fall of 2009, Mr. White served as a Wall Street reporter for the New York Times, where he shared a Society of Business Editors and Writers award for breaking news coverage of the financial crisis.

From 2005 to 2007, White was Wall Street correspondent and U.S. Banking Editor at the Financial Times.

White worked at the Washington Post for nine years before joining the FT. He served as national political researcher and research assistant to columnist David S. Broder and later as Wall Street correspondent.

White, a 1994 graduate of Kenyon College, has two sons and lives in New York City.