EconoMeter: Panelists see little immediate impact from Japan's woes

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American Red Cross

The American Red Cross is in contact with the Japanese Red Cross to see how it can help. Meanwhile, donations that will support American disaster relief efforts in Japan and throughout the Pacific can be made at redcross.org to Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami. A $10 donation also may be made by texting REDCROSS on your cell phone to 90999.

Salvation Army

The Salvation Army has opened a section of their Tokyo headquarters to provide shelter and meals for those who could not get home. A Salvation Army team in Tokyo is sending an assessment team to Sendai Friday night to assess damage and soon will begin providing basic necessities. Donations can be made by calling (800) SAL-ARMY; online at salvationarmy.usawest.org; or by post to The Salvation Army World Service Office, International Relief Fund, P.o. Box 630728, Baltimore, MD 21263--728. Please make a note that your gift go to Japan Earthquake/Tsunamis. A $10 donation also may be made by texting the words Japan or Quake to 80888.

UNICEF

UNICEF is monitoring the situation in Japan. The relief agency has staff and emergency supplies already posted throughout the region to assist vulnerable children and families if needed. To donate through UNICEF.

The San Diego Foundation

The San Diego Foundation has created a Global Disaster Relief Fund to provide disaster support to Japan. The fund will help address the most pressing needs of victims. Checks made out to TSDF Global Disaster Relief Fund may be mailed to The San Diego Foundation Global Disaster Relief Fund, 2508 Historic Decatur Road, No. 200, San Diego, CA 92106. Write Japan on the check to ensure funds go to that effort. Donations can also be made on the foundation's website.

How to contact relatives/friends in Japan:

The U.S. State Department advises U.S. citizens, both in Japan and in the United States to contact the Department of State at JapanEmergencyUSC@state.gov or by phone. For those in United States or Canada, call (888) 407-4747. For those outside those areas, call (202) 501-4444. For updates, State Department officials recommend the following websites: japan.usembassy.gov/ (U.S. Embassy in Japan) ; travel.state.gov/travel/cis_pa_tw/pa/pa_5378.html (Consular Affairs Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami Page); travel.state.gov/travel/cis_pa_tw/pa/pa_5377.html (Travel Alert). The State Department has strongly urged Americans to avoid tourism and non-essential travel to Japan through April 1.

Continuous coverage from Japan:

Cox Communications has opened TV Japan Feed to all customers so they may watch live continuous news coverage from Japan. The premium channel is available free now on Cox Channel 400.

Our panel of local economists, like the rest of us, watched the triple-whammy calamity in Japan -- the earthquake, tsunami and nuclear plant breakdowns. But they don't think the economic impact on San Diego will be severe.

Q: Will Japan's economy, hobbled by the earthquake, affect San Diego's recovery in the coming months?

Marney Cox, San Diego Association of Governments

Yes. Though Japan is not as robust as it once was, it is still the world’s third largest economy and the fourth largest exporter, accounting, for example, for 14% of automobile products and 60% of the silicon used to make semiconductor chips. Japan is also a major trading partner of both California and San Diego. Expect mostly short-term disruptions, illustrated by the less than favorable response in the financial markets, providing insights on expected short-run impacts to global supply chains. However, these impacts will likely be concentrated in select areas and short lived; the flexibility and strength of the global marketplace will assert itself providing the necessary adjustments.

Kelly Cunningham, National University System

No, not significantly.

There will probably be some indirect impacts, and some direct with major Japanese employers in San Diego, including Sony, Sanyo, and Kyocera. Japan is San Diego’s second largest trade partner (far behind Mexico) primarily because of the large number of motor vehicles transported through the port of San Diego. San Diego exports to Japan, however, are relatively minor. Military personnel based in San Diego are already involved and other rescue and rebuilding efforts may involve local businesses, but Japan will likely rebuild and recover faster than most after such a devastating catastrophe.

Alan Gin, University of San Diego

Yes.

But the impact could go either way. On the downside, if the Japanese economy is severely affected, it could put a damper on the global economic recovery, which would eventually affect San Diego. Trade could be adversely affected; in 2010, more than $22 million worth of goods were exported to Japan through the Port of San Diego, second only to Ecuador in terms of destination country for exports. On the other hand, the global economy could be boosted as Japan ramps up expenditures for the recovery and rebuilding process. It’s uncertain which of these impacts is going to be larger.

James Hamilton, UC San Diego

Yes

This is a significant shock to one of the world’s most important economies. One concern is the lasting damage to Japan’s infrastructure, including electricity generation, ports, and possible radioactive contamination. We will see in the months to come how this impacts the rest of the world economically. Among the concerns are losses of critical electronic components, manufactured goods, and possible implications for financial markets of factors such as insurance losses and disrupted credit flows. But of course above all this is the staggering dimension of the human tragedy that we have watched unfold.

Gary London, The London Group

No

Here I am more concerned about perception than reality. While we immediately think about San Onofre, there are no current problems there, and Japan is just too far away. There are some tech companies in San Diego tied to the Japanese supply chain, but once they turn their electric grid back on, production will resume as most plants weren’t physically damaged. Japanese investment in San Diego is not as significant, as it was in the 1980’s when they invested here in real estate and businesses. Many lost money in the 1990’s recession and never returned because the Japanese economy has remained mired in an economic winter. As I write this the world stock markets have tanked, presumably due to “uncertainty”. The markets like to be ahead of the news, but the nuclear reactor problem has been handled in a vacuum of information which could have a long standing economic impact. But I intuitively believe that the panic period will pass quickly and the economy will not be impacted. The rebuilding process that is ahead of them could actually create a better economy in the long run.

Norm Miller, CoStar Group

No

Neither food nor oil nor the Japan tragedy by themselves will significantly derail the U.S., California or San Diego recovery. However, cumulatively all of this hurts and will dampen our recovery. Japan is the #3 export destination from California after Mexico and Canada and our #2 import nation after China. As a percent of global GDP, Japan represented 8.7 percent in 2010, about one-third of the U.S., and Japan will be hurt by this. But keep in mind that Japan was actually declining in economic growth for much of the last decade and this tragedy will force a lot of rebuilding like an unplanned private sector stimulus to the economy.

Lynn Reaser, Point Loma Nazarene University

No

Following an initial sharp economic decline, unless nuclear contamination causes widespread problems, rebuilding will push Japan’s output higher as 2011 proceeds. As a result, over two or three quarters, world economic growth is likely to see little impact. San Diego is not positioned to replace some of the auto and semiconductor production disrupted from the earthquake. Some of our region’s firms could benefit from engineering, consulting, or other work contracted in the rebuilding process. Japan’s additional borrowing costs could put some additional pressure on interest rates in the second half of 2011 but not by enough to derail San Diego’s recovery.

Dan Seiver, SDSU

Yes

But not too much. One effect might be a reduction in sales to Japan for Callaway Golf (Carlsbad), and a second effect might be reduced Japanese tourism in San Diego, affecting the entire local hospitality industry. Otherwise, the San Diego economy should continue in slow recovery mode, held back mainly by weakness in housing and construction.