As Violence Surges, What Will Happen to Iran?

Violence and protests in Iran, which have surged repeatedly since the fraud-ridden June 2009 elections,
are reaching new heights. The most recent demonstrations has already
seen 15 killed and 300 arrested. This unverified, widely-distributed and very graphic video appears to show several prisoners
saved from the gallows by protesters. Meanwhile, Iranian forces have arrested
top aides to opposition leader Mir-Hussein Moussavi, a 2009
presidential candidate who has come to be the face of the Iranian "green"
movement. Moussavi's nephew was recently killed, sparking further
unrest.

No
one is certain what will happen
next or how Iran's leadership, Grand Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and
President Mahmoud Ahmedinejad, will respond, but analysts are debating
where the demonstrations could lead.

'Khamenei Is The New Shah' The Washington Note's Steve Clemons says
the political situation is dangerous for all sides. "Ayatollah Khamenei
has become the new Shah -- hated by so many within
the country that it seems implausible that Iranian elites will ever be
able to operate without much distrust and fear of each other," he
writes. "There is no easy way now for the opposition to back down and
wait for a
more appropriate time to move their advocates and followers into the
street. [...] This phase in Iran's next revolution could subside again
before an even
larger explosion by embedded protesters. It's just too hard to tell at
this moment."

Protests' Religious UndertonesSpencer Ackerman thinks they bode poorly for the Iranian government, citing "violence against the Greens
during street demonstrations yesterday commemorating the Shiite holiday
of Ashura, which remembers the climactic battle between the martyred
saint Hussein and his persecutor Yazid. Protesters, amazingly, chanted 'Death to Khamenei,'
the supreme leader of Iran, and compared him to the hated Yazid. That
could be the death knell for a regime that claims its legitimacy from
fidelity to Shiite religious precepts." Ackerman adds, "I don’t know how long it’ll take, but a theocracy that the faithful
equate with the man whose iniquity ultimately prompted the creation of
Shiism is doomed."

Not a Recipe for Revolution Analyst Juan Cole explains. "[F]or the movement to go further and become truly revolutionary, it
would have to have a leader who wanted to overthrow the old regime and
who could attract the loyalty of both the people and elements of the
armed forces. So far this key revolutionary element, of dual
sovereignty, has been lacking, insofar as opposition leaders Mir Hosain
Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi have tried to stay inside the Khomeinist
framework while arguing that it is Khamenei who violated it by making
it too authoritarian. Saying you want slightly less autocracy within a
clerical theocracy is not a recipe for revolution."

Regime Undermines Itself PBS Frontline's Meir Javedanfar blasts
Khamenei for "creating the nucleus of an ideology that is legitimizing
opposition, not just in cities, but throughout Iran. However, ideology
is not enough. To succeed, what is needed is to
increase the frequency of opposition to the point where the morale of
the regime and its forces are sufficiently eroded and they can no
longer afford to carry on with their current policies, or their ability
to function." He adds, "In fact, if developments continue in their
current form, they can
result in significant changes to the structure of his regime, or more
drastically, lead to its total demise."

Why Green Movement Turned Violent The Daily Nite Owl's Josh Shahryar approves. "What went on in Iran yesterday was anything but peaceful. Protesters
fought back and they fought back hard. The level of violence against
protesters may have been high, but it was answered – maybe not as
violently, but clearly it was.
This prompted many of my friends and colleagues to question their
support for the Green Movement. After all, we were expecting a
non-violent revolution – one spurred by peaceful protests. But let us
not forget. There is a difference between unprovoked acts of violence
against individuals and self-defense. Did we really expect the Iranian
people to just sit back and allow the government to kill, maim and
arrest people ad infinitum?"

The Coverage and the Reality Foreign Policy's Marc Lynch urges skepticism towards the often-passion filled commentary in Western media. "Following Iran closely but fear that internet coverage again racing ahead of reality." Journalist Tom Watson scoffs, "Am I the only one who thinks the 'keyboard brigade' trying to 'support' Iran street protests is lame, both left and right?"