Arthur I. Cyr: Tense Korea border heats up

Wednesday

Aug 24, 2016 at 11:32 AMAug 24, 2016 at 11:32 AM

South Korea and the United States, on Aug. 22, began regular annual joint military exercises, including operations near the North Korea border.

The communist dictatorship has responded with characteristically bellicose threats. Broadcasts promise to turn the U.S., including Washington D.C., into a “heap of ashes” by means of a “preemptive nuclear strike” if North Korea sovereignty is threatened. The regime also has tested a submarine launched missile.

China has joined in denouncing the exercises. State news agency Xinhua declared “muscle-flexing” threatens “peace and stability in Northeast Asia.” This occurs in the context of an escalating arms race throughout Asia, while Beijing’s relatively hardline government pursues territorial expansion.

In July, a panel of five judges at the Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague, Netherlands, ruled unanimously against China and in favor of the Philippines. The case was brought by the Philippines in 2013, regarding maritime authority of nations and Beijing’s expanding claims in the South China Sea. China’s government has bitterly condemned the decision.

In early May, North Korea held a noteworthy communist party congress. Tight total control of the choreographed show was self-evident. The last such party congress was held in 1980. Dictator Kim Jong-un wore a business suit for the political production, a departure from the usual uniform.

Kim publicly acknowledged economic challenges, a remarkable understatement which nonetheless was long overdue. North Korea by any reasonable measure is a failed state, the economy on life support from China, Russia and global black market income, held together by the military and the brutal clique at the top.

North Korea has been acting erratically for years. In 2013, the regime announced a “state of war” with South Korea and threatened nuclear attack. Pyongyang abruptly abrogated the 1953 armistice agreement ending the Korean War, and cut the military “hot line” communications link with the south.

During this same period, Pyongyang temporarily prevented South Korean workers from entering the Kaesong Industrial Region, located six miles north of the DMZ separating the two nations. In February, South Korea shut down the operation, to protest Pyongyang provocations. The region had been an important source of hard currency.

In March 2010, a North Korea torpedo sank the South Korean ship Cheonan. In the same vicinity in November of that year, North Korean artillery bombarded South Korea’s Yeonpyeong Island.

In late February 2012, North Korea agreed yet again to cease their on-again, off-again nuclear program in joint announcements coordinated with the U.S. That accord was soon abandoned.

North Korea has conducted rudimentary nuclear weapons along with missile tests. Two intermediate range missiles were fired in June. One failed, the other flew a limited trajectory. Pyongyang has carried out at least four other missile tests this year. There is no evidence of capacity to strike the U.S. directly, but the effort is threatening to Japan as well as South Korea.

The activity clearly violates United Nations resolutions. In early March, the United Nations Security Council passed Resolution 2270, which significantly strengthens sanctions on North Korea. These include bans on importing coal and minerals, and restrictions on cargo ships and financial transactions.

In July, the U.S. and South Korea decided jointly to deploy the THAAD anti-ballistic missile system, resulting in strong protests from China. Beijing, which has supported UN sanctions, may move somewhat closer to traditional communist ally Pyongyang.

North Korea’s moribund economy is the fundamental, unavoidable strategic challenge. The days of Korea communism are numbered.

— Arthur I. Cyr is Clausen Distinguished Professor at Carthage College and author of “After the Cold War.” Contact acyr@carthage.edu

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