"Let us concentrate on explaining to human beings what we want a computer to do"

Saturday, 6 February 2010

Deconstructing The Savoy

The software industry has long looked to the construction industry for inspiration.

We appropriate its vocabulary - programmers "build" software designed by "architects". We draw on its ideas - the seminal Gang of Fourbook adapted architect Christopher Alexander's concept of design patterns for use in software construction. And the discipline of software engineering was founded on a desire to employ civil engineering practices to help us build complex software systems.

For me, the most striking similarity between the two industries is the frequency of budget blowouts and schedule overruns. The great thing about this for software developers is that it gives us a tangible way of describing our otherwise inexplicable travails and catastrophes to ordinary people.

When The Savoy closed on 15 December 2007 for a planned 16-month, £100 million makeover, it was hoped the hotel would quickly resume its status, buffed and restored to its former glory.

In the planning stages, optimism rules. The project is so large and complex that we can't possibly plan accurately, so in the absence of evidence one way or the other we assume the best.

The original £100 million estimate for the work has been ripped up and although operators Fairmont Hotels and Resorts will not disclose the actual figure, the 15 months of work suggests it could be close to double that sum.

Once work begins, the fragility of the initial estimates is exposed. Often, the 'estimate' of how much a project will cost is as much based on the depth of the client's pockets as the actual effort required to get the job done (which of course no one knows in advance anyway).

Part of the problem was The Savoy's unplanned, organic growth.

We have to live with the sins of those who came before us. In my experience, the quality of a system's legacy code base has more impact on a project than the inherent difficulty of the project in question.

Although we had done two years of planning and tried to assess the level of issues behind the walls, it's only when you close the doors and open it up that you realise the amount of work is much more serious and extensive than first envisaged.

Unsurprisingly, once you are up to your elbows in a system's viscera, you have a much better idea about what you're in for. Exploratory surgery is the only way to be certain of how long changes will take.

"What was an open courtyard suddenly became a room, with a mix of internal and external walls."

A system accrues idiosyncrasies because it is inevitably patched, hacked and enhanced. Modules that were designed with one use-case in mind are re-purposed as business needs change. And scar tissue accumulates.

Digging up the roadway in Savoy Place, off the Strand entrance - still the only place in the UK where one must legally drive on the right - he found a huge gulley running around the perimeter, instead of a solid foundation. "We don't even know what it's for."

But much more frightening are the dull, blank blocks of obsolete code that loom like monoliths erected by a vanished civilisation. No one remembers what they were originally intended to do, and you can never be quite sure that the earth won't mysteriously stop turning if they are ever removed.

The huge expense and loss of revenue mean The Savoy has to "hit the ground running" when it reopens if the money is ever to be recouped.

Counter intuitively, the level of optimism rises as the schedule slips. It's very tempting to think that although we fell behind in phase 1, we can make up the time in phase 2. However, it's much more likely that if one part of a project runs into trouble, the rest will too.

As a manager at one said: "Hotel travellers are very promiscuous, they will, as it were, sleep around. While you are off the scene many will have happily moved on and it could take years to get them back."

Software users are even more promiscuous, especially on the web. They will cheerfully see your competitors behind your back, even in the good times. They will not tolerate a prolonged outage and they will complain loudly if your service is unavailable even for an hour.

But I am not entirely pessemistic about the software development process. There is one important attribute that software has that buildings don't - malleability.

We are able to follow agile methodologies and incrementally improve our programs. We don't have to follow The Savoy's example and attempt to implement an enormous modification in one go. We can embrace change and use the information we gather along the way to improve the end product. And if we refactor as we develop, we can reduce the amount of technical debt we bequeath to our successors.