Labor wins Federal election

It is clear to me (at 9-05pm EAT) that the Labor Party has won the Federal election. A disappointing outcome for the Coalition and some particular disappointments for me are the probable loss of seats by Mal Brough and, of course, John Howard. Bright spots? I cannot see many. Julia Gillard has intelligence and will be a valuable part of the new government as Deputy Prime Minister. Nicole Cornes for Labor didn’t make it which was some sort of relief.

But the cheering yobbos in the Tally Room supporting Maxine McKew kinda said it all.

Good result for libs. Within striking distance for next time and kept the core of talent that far outweighs the labor front bench (except of course for Brough). If Rudd’s speech is anything to go by, there’ll be a few stuff ups from those that haven’t tasted govt for 11 years.

Costello’s announced he won’t stand for leadership. They should go for Julie Bishop, but we’ll probably cop Turnbull. I never thought Costello had much guts. John Howard’s distrust of him is totally vindicated.

I’ve always admired Howard, even back in the days when he soldiered on under the despicable Fraser’s domination. He’s never spat the dummy, always looked ahead, a man of determination and character, true to himself despite vilification and being lied about on a scale unprecedented in Australian political history. He’s done Australia proud. I give him credit over Costello for Australia’s present excellent health, yet he’s never claimed credit over his team.

Costello isn’t in anywhere like the same league. Expecting the highest office in the land without having earned it, he spits the dummy as soon as he finds out he has a lot of real work to do.

Examining my own attitudes today admittedly in a state of depression – not clinical – I realise that I’ve been a Howard fan rather than a Liberal party fan. I certainly can’t get enthusiastic about Turnbull, Nelson, Abbott or Downer as leaders, although I have immense respect for the last two in their roles in the Howard government.

I do think Julie Bishop should be viewed as a future leader, although she’d probably be eaten up by Turnbull now if they were rivals.

Unfortunately we’ll have to remain victims of a rampant union movement via wall-to-wall Labor governments for several terms until the conservative forces get their acts together eventually. The wheel will turn back one day, just as it’s turned against us in the last year. Human progress has always been three steps forward two steps backwards. Let’s only hope that ratio is not the other way around this time.

Whyisitso, me-too, a big supporter of Howard. In fact I reread the post I made on his biography here and most of it seems apt today.

Howard showed exceptional loyalty toward one of the biggest flops in post-war Liberal politics Malcolm Fraser. Fraser did nothing and has distinguished himself in his retirement by attacking Howard from the sidelines. An awful man.

I am a bit depressed this morning. The Liberals have lost two of their strongest performers (Howard, Costello) and one of the best younger members of parliament (Mal Brough. John Quiggin is saying that the Liberals will never rule Federally again. This is an uncharacteristically foolish claim by John that stems from his triumphalism. But the Liberal Party does face problems.

Its a time for getting the troops together and thinking about strategies for getting rid of the Labor rabble. The Labor Party will certainly make serious mistakes as a consequence of the limited capacities of its key people and its inexperience. This needs to be targetted.

The leadership issue will need to be resolved and this will involve an inconsequential bun fight. I think Turnbull or Abbott are the best batch of potential new leaders with Julie Bishop as Deputy.

The ‘Yobbos’ were not in the ‘ABC tally room’ – they were in the ‘Tally Room’ a central point where all the major media organisations covering the election had a presence. Much of the noise belonged to the ‘yobbos’ thronging the Channel 7 stage – Kerry O’Brien of the ABC even addressed sharp remarks in their direction when the noise got too loud.

The good things that Howard did: GST, the first tranche of IR reform, job network, RBA independence, resolving relations with Indonesia, gun control, a more honest relationship with Indonesia, involvements in East Timor and Afghanistan, sale of Telstra (although the execution left a lot to be desired).

The bad: second trache of IR reform, Iraq involvement, AWB, lack of action on climate change, belated action on aboriginal problems (and aspects of its execution).

Howard, unlike Costello, was a fighter for what he believed in and you had to admire him for that, even if you didn’t always like his policies.

As for Costello’s departure, I am not surprised that he has shown so little stomach for a tough fight. But I was hoping for better from him than this tame form of “resignation”. I think he would have been the best option for keeping the Coalition together in the critical period over the next couple of years – even if they ultimately decided he was unelectable and went for someone else as leader at the next election. He would have been very good at targetting and capitalising on any idiocy that emerged from a Rudd government.

In respect of IR reform I’d have liked to see more thorough deregulation of the labour market, in which Australia has been abysmally deficient, but you can only do what you can do in a particular legislative environment, in a country that seems to believe intrinsically in government regulation as a way of life.

Contrary to what the commentariat was continually spouting, Howard has never had control of the Senate. He’s had to negotiate with primitives right throughout his 11 and a half years (including the last three), resulting in unsatisfactory compromises, but moving towards his ultimate goals, however imperceptibly. In my view he played the “art of the possible” extraordinarily well.

No he did not. The responsible ministers, Vaille and Downer, were (on a most generous interpretation of events) “asleep at the wheel”. He should have demanded the resignation of at least one of these two.