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Comparison of the dynamic behavior of compartmental models for lead distribution in the human body.

Authors

Liu-WV; Landaw-EM; Froines-JR

Source

Occup Hyg 1995 Jan; 1(4):293-304

Link

NIOSHTIC No.

00226603

Abstract

A comparison study of the ability of compartment models to predict lead (7439921) distribution in the human body was conducted. The Doberne, Peterson, Rabinowitz, Bernard, Marcus, Ashford and Hattis (A/H), and Bert models describing lead disposition in adults were evaluated. The dynamic behavior, decay response after reaching a steady state, and approximated body burden of the models were assessed by using them to predict the rate of disappearance of lead from the blood pool following injection of an impulse bolus of 1 unit mass (UM) of lead into the blood compartment, the lead accumulation in the compartment over 10 years after continuous step intakes of 1UM of lead, and the total lead body burdens resulting from a daily intake of 0.048 milligram (mg) lead for 100 years. The Rabinowitz model was the simplest, using only three compartments. The Peterson, which utilized 12 compartments, was the most complex model. Following injection of the impulse bolus, the Doberne and Peterson models predicted the fastest rate of blood lead clearance; only 60% of the lead was left in the blood after 1 day and 10% remained after 10 days. The Bernard and A/H models predicted that 85% of the lead would be left on day one and 23% after 10 days. The Rabinowitz, Marcus, and Bert models predicted the slowest clearance, with 95% of the lead being left after the first day and 72% on the tenth day. Following step increases of 1UM of lead over 10 years, the Rabinowitz, Marcus, and Bert models predicted that 34 to 36UM of lead would be present in the blood compartment after 10 years. The Bernard model predicted that only 10UM would be present after 10 years. The A/H model predicted a slow increase for 3 years, followed by an increase to 36UM by the end of year ten. The Peterson and Doberne models were excluded from this analysis since they had predicted extremely fast rates of clearance in the impulse bolus simulation. The lead body burdens following daily ingestion of 0.048mg lead for 100 years predicted by the seven models ranged from 29 to 384mg. When compared with existing experimental data, the Marcus, Bert, and A-and-H model predictions were more consistent with the experimental findings on the dynamics of lead in the human body than the other models.