What would the NCAA Tournament field look like if the powers that be had decided a 96-team tournament was better than the current 68-team field?

For one thing, with 28 extra at-large spots to fill, we wouldn’t be talking about whether Illinois was still worthy of a berth. That imploding squad—which has lost eight of its past nine games (and didn’t make this week’s Field of 68, by the way)—would be an absolute stone-cold lock for the expanded bracket.

Want more locks for the 96-team field? Using the RPI as a guide, these teams would be clearing their schedules for the third weekend in March: Arizona, Arkansas, Colorado, Colorado State, Dayton, George Mason, La Salle, LSU, Marshall, Massachusetts, Minnesota, New Mexico State, N.C. State, Northern Iowa, Ohio, Ole Miss, Oregon, South Florida, South Dakota State, St. Joseph’s, VCU, Wagner and Wyoming.

That’s 24 at-large squads, along with Illinois, which means there would be four at-large berths left for the selection committee to hand out. These would be the eight most likely bubble candidates at that point of the process: Buffalo, Cleveland State, Loyola Marymount, Oklahoma State, Pittsburgh, Stanford and—you guessed it—Virginia Tech, which has an RPI of 102.

Barely missing the cut on Selection Sunday with a 96-team field seems like it would be slightly more painful than missing the cut of a 68-team tournament.

Note: As always, this is a projection of what the selection committee would do based on what’s happened so far this season. All RPI numbers are from collegeRPI.com, through Monday morning. Note, part 2: Automatic bids, listed in parenthesis, are given to the team with the fewest conference losses, with RPI rankings used to break ties.

1. Kentucky (SEC), Syracuse (Big East), Missouri, Duke (ACC)

If the season ended after Sunday night, the selection committee would have a fascinating decision for the fourth No. 1 seed. Watching games, Duke feels like a much more vulnerable team than Michigan State right now, but the Blue Devils have a better resume. The strength of schedule category is a wash (Michigan State is 2, Duke is 3). Michigan State has seven victories over RPI top 25 teams, but Duke has four against RPI top 15 squads, including a head-to-head win against the Spartans. Plus, the Blue Devils are 11-2 away from home (6-2 in true road games, 5-0 on neutral court games), and the Spartans are just 6-5 (6-3/0-2). Would Michigan State be favored in a rematch? Almost certainly, but the Blue Devils are the more deserving No. 1 seed right now.

It’s been a rough couple of days for Ohio State. On the past two Saturdays, the Buckeyes have lost to both Michigan State and Michigan, and they scored a whopping total of 99 points in the two contests. They’re dangerously close to falling out of the race for a No. 1 seed; they’re eighth overall this week, just barely ahead of Marquette.

3. Marquette, Michigan, Baylor, Georgetown

Last year, Baylor lost six of its final seven Division I games (the Bears played a random game against Wayland Baptist on February 15) and was left out of the NCAA Tournament. Heading into this week, the Bears have lost three of four. Obviously, these Bears are much more talented and are in zero danger of missing the NCAA Tournament, but they’ve shown some of the same characteristics that led to last season’s collapse. Games at Texas and Iowa State are going to be difficult.

4. Louisville, Florida, Wisconsin, Wichita State (Missouri Valley)

Forget about that under-the-radar stuff. The country had a chance to see how good Wichita State really is when the Shockers shot 80 percent from the field in the second half of their BracketBuster game at Davidson. They are the best mid-major team in the country.

5. Indiana, Temple (Atlantic 10), Florida State, Vanderbilt

Just when it seemed like Indiana was hitting its stride—a win at Purdue, home victories against Illinois and Northwestern—the Hoosiers were dominated for more than 27 minutes of their game at Iowa on Saturday, a contest they wound up losing by a dozen points. Two of their final Big Ten games are at home, though, and the lone road contest is against a struggling Minnesota team.

Forget about that under-the-radar stuff. New Mexico served notice that it was the team to beat in the Mountain West Conference with back-to-back wins against league front-runners San Diego State and UNLV. All of a sudden, the Lobos own a two-game lead in the conference standings and are realistically looking at a seed in the 4-5-6-7 range.

7. Creighton, Gonzaga, San Diego State, St. Mary’s (West Coast)

This was not a good week for St. Mary’s. The Gaels lost twice—by 15 at home to Loyola Marymount and by 14 in a prime-time BracketBuster game at Murray State—and also found out that shooting guard Stephen Holt will be out a couple of weeks with an injured knee. St. Mary’s has road games left at Portland and at San Francisco.

8. Saint Louis, Virginia, Kansas State, Southern Miss (C-USA)

Southern Miss had a surprising road hiccup this week, losing at Houston (which also owns a win against Arkansas this season). The Golden Eagles are still in a first-place tie atop the Conference USA standings, though, because …

9. Iowa State, Harvard (Ivy), West Virginia, Memphis

Memphis lost, at home, to UTEP this week. Any other year, that might have erased the Tigers’ margin for error. For now, though, they’re still safe.

10. Mississippi State, California (Pac-12), Purdue, Xavier

The NCAA selection committee treats player suspensions like it treats player injuries. That’s great news for Xavier, which tanked mid-season when dealing with multiple suspensions after the brawl with Cincinnati.

11. Alabama, Connecticut, Seton Hall, Middle Tennessee (Sun Belt)

Speaking of suspensions, Alabama announced Monday afternoon that forward Tony Mitchell, who was averaging 13.1 points and 7.0 rebounds, will be suspended for the rest of the season. He had already missed four games while on “indefinite” suspension, and his permanent absence will hurt the Tide’s standing with the committee.

12. BYU, Cincinnati, Texas, Oral Roberts (Summit), Drexel (Colonial)

What is the committee going to do with Cincinnati? The Bearcats’ non-conference SOS is awful (320th), but they have four wins against RPI top 40 teams. Their RPI was hovering down near 100 at the end of January, but was back up to 82 on Monday morning. That at least brings them back into the discussion.

13. Miami, Northwestern, Washington, UCF, Long Beach (Big West)

Northwestern has four games left in the regular season—winnable road contests at Penn State and Iowa, and home dates with Michigan and Ohio State. Going 3-1 in that stretch won’t be easy, but would go a long way toward locking up the school’s first NCAA berth.