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May 26, 2009

G46: Twins 5, Red Sox 2

Lester (6-6-5-3-4, 100) faltered in the fifth inning, with Justin Morneau's three-run line drive home run to right being the big blow. Lester's ERA rose to 6.07.

Jacoby Ellsbury scored both Red Sox runs. He also singled to begin the game, and extend his hit streak to 21 games. He stole two bases and made a tremendous diving catch in deep right-center in the fifth inning, before the Twins did their damage. He scored on Dustin Pedroia's double in the fifth and on an infield error in the seventh.

David Ortiz doubled to right center in his first time up and walked in the fourth. He finished his night with a strikeout and pop out to left.

Lester and Blackburn hooked up back on July 8, 2008; Boston won the game 6-5. It was the last appearance each pitcher had against the opposing team.

Jacoby Ellsbury's hitting streak has reached 20 games, but he's not having a good year at the plate. His slash stats since the streak began on May 2: .330/.365/.418 for a .782 OPS -- which is below what Nick Green has done this season (.794). LBJ has collected only one hit in nine of his last 11 games: .275/.310/.350.

Ellsbury has drawn five walks during the streak (96 PA). He has walked only 10 times all year, in 201 PA. In five fewer trips to the plate, Jason Bay has walked 24 more times (34 in 196).

Ellsbury's season stats are .300/.333/.374 for a paltry 79 OPS+. (For reference: Jeff Bailey is at 86 and Julio Lugo is at 73.) Lyndon has led off in all but three of Boston's 45 games and the Red Sox are 9th in the AL in leadoff batter OBP.

Finally, in his 12 stolen base attempts during the streak, he has been caught four times.

And we have talked about the little things with Ellsbury, particularly his baserunning, that gets him into trouble. If anything this 20-game hitting streak is a mask. Be patient at the plate and be a smarter baserunner - and talk to FY about sliding!

If Ellsbury didn't have the hitting streak going - let's say he had a 15 game hitting streak and hit in 20 of his last 21 you might be more apt to looking at more of his flaws. Not that we really NEED to be but these are things with Ellsbury that he can improve on and I hope he does. But you look at the OPS+ and it tells you all you need to know. Yes he's getting a hit each game but doesn't seem to be doing much more than that.

People get so enamoured in name-calling. Hitting streaks. No-hitters. Perfect games.

For instance, I think a game where you give up a single and nothing else is more impressive than if you throw a 3-walk no-hitter.

I don't buy that--he's not supposed to hit home runs. If the guy hits .350 with a .400 OBP and 60 SB, but all his hits are singles, his OPS+ would still be below 100 but that would be an incredible year.

Man, Lugo on that play was kind of waiting and seeing with the runner before going back to cover, instead of assuming he'd go for it and get right to the bag. He really could've screwed us twice on that play.

Here's another one for you all: You know how people used to want Papi to bunt or do a little check swing to hit one toward third when the shift was on? And the response was, "that's what the other team wants." (Meaning, for Papi to get ONLY a single.) Well, since he's lost power, why not have him do that against the shift, if only occasionally? (One reason not to would be that he's not gonna get the power stroke back by doing that--but don't we just want him to get on base at this point?)

That helps, Patrick. I appreciate it. I find all these stats baffling and can never quite remember what half of them mean. After ERA, BA, and the other old traditional ones, I am always going back and looking them up.

I have to say when I look at some of these formulas (VORP, BABIP, ERA+), I think, "What kind of nut sat around figuring out THAT?" But I guess they must have some value. I just can't keep it all straight. TMI. I am happy with ERA, BA, and W and L. :)

Or maybe they will! There was one umpire who reverse a call after Gardenhire argued vehemently about a ball that hit Joe Mauer on the hands. Call was it hit the bat. Then the umpire randomly overturned the call.

Nick--thanks. Maybe it's just because Fenway has the "normal" bullpens, I'm just not often thinking of those weird side ones in general. Then again, I thought numbers on the fronts of uniforms was the rare way to do it, and I was wrong on that. And the 3rd base dugout being the home dugout isn't as rare as I thought either. So maybe those side pens are more common than I realize. Not that this helps at all with your question...

I used to think all home dugouts were on the first base side because that's where the three parks I knew best had them (Fenway, Shea and YS). I was surprised the first time I realized a home team was on the third base side. It still feels "wrong."