How did it come to this? By the end of today – when five states vote in primaries – we will know whether Donald Trump is certain of the Republican presidential nomination, or whether he will have to fight all the way to the party convention in the summer.

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Trump's history of encouraging violence

A look at how Donald Trump has appealed to the raw anger of voters and encouraged crowds at rallies to use force against protesters who are disruptive.

If you were standing in the atrium of Trump Tower last June - as I was - and watched a billionaire glide down a golden escalator before announcing his White House run by declaring Mexican immigrants to be rapists and drug smugglers, it is tempting to assume the American people have lost their marbles.

Bernie Sanders is lying when he says his disruptors aren't told to go to my events. Be careful Bernie, or my supporters will go to yours!

Surely no sane person could choose to elect to the very highest office a candidate that boasted of his penis size during a televised campaign debate. Or one who thinks nothing of whipping his supporters into a violent frenzy.

That is roughly what the Republican hierarchy has been thinking for the past six months.

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Time and again, however, they have been proved wrong.

Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump gestures as he speaks at a rally at Lenoir-Rhyne University in Hickory, N.C. Photo: Chuck Burton

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Mr Trump is not just the candidate of klansmen and kooks. He has picked up millions of (primary) votes from across the South to the industrial North. His message is resonating among hardworking people across America.

Study the economic and polling data, and it paints a picture of a country that is hurting – one that is ready for a populist, protectionist demagogue:

Name recognition

You don't need me to tell you that The Donald has profited from years on television and in the celebrity pages. At the start of the campaign, a whopping 92 per cent of Americans surveyed by Gallup said they had heard with him, compared with ratings a little over 60 per cent for Messrs Rubio and Cruz. He has only become more ubiquitous since then.

A supporter holds a Trump sign during a Donald Trump rally in Hickory, North Carolina. Photo: Ben Earp

For many people, the culprit for some of these problems can be found in stores across America. Between 1991 and 2007 the overall value of cheap Chinese imports increased by well over 1000 per cent, fuelled in part by Beijing joining the WTO. The received wisdom had long been that increased trade was good for the importing economy – and workers who lost their jobs in manufacturing would ultimately find better work elsewhere. No more. There is an increasing body of research showing the shock from such a rapid rise of Chinese goods is holding down wages and pushing up unemployment.

Rejection of conservative economics

The Republican Party, moving further to the Right with its low-tax, small-government orthodoxy, is out of touch with its own supporters. The University of Virginia last week found that more than two thirds of Republican voters opposed cutting social security spending to reduce the deficit, almost as many as favoured raising taxes on households earning more than $US250,000. Those are the people attracted by Trumpism, who has centrist – if not a Leftist – stance on government spending.

Cynicism about politicians

Perhaps paradoxically anger at government has not risen in recent years. In fact it has declined since the partial government shutdown of 2013. But Mr Trump hits the mark in a country with a growing suspicion that elected officials are more interested in themselves than the country – a view shared by a full 74 per cent of the population. Good news for an outsider who frequently points out he could be making more money by staying out of politics.

Political scientists have found that the two main parties have polarised into an authoritarian party and a non-authoritarian party. Republican America wants a strongman, according to the latest research by Matthew MacWilliams.

Fear of The Other

Whether it's the wall or banning Muslims from entering, Trump is part of the typical response to trouble: blaming it on outsiders. He is not new in this. Candidates are united in demanding a secure Southern border. And the State Department has already tightened entry for nationals of several Muslim countries. Trump takes it to its logical conclusion, so while he can be accused of impractical promises, there is not a whole amount of outrage directed at him by Republican rivals.

Quite how Mr Trump managed to find this groove is anyone's guess. Did he get lucky? Or was it years of careful calculation?

Either way, a brash New York billionaire has become the natural choice of millions intent on sticking it to the man.