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Sunday, 13 November 2011

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The Liberal Democrats pulled back another Council seat that they lost in May as they defeated the Conservatives in Ipswich on Thursday. That was not the only gain of the night as Labour put another nail in Respect's coffin by winning the by-election in Sparkbrook, Birmingham. Labour also enjoyed comfortable holds in the London Boroughs of Redbridge and Islington.

I'll start in Ipswich where the St Margaret's ward was up for grabs following the resignation of Conservative Councillor Sarah Stokes, barely four months after her election. The Tories have fallen short of winning this marginal ward in recent years but in the midst of a terrible night for the Liberal Democrats in May they managed to finally gain a seat here. The implication is that Stokes was not expecting her victory and her subsequent resignation left the Conservatives with a difficult defence against the recovering Lib Dems.

As has been the case a number of times during the last few months the Liberal Democrats managed to regain a seat lost on May 5th as Cathy French won the by-election with a majority of 71. She enjoyed a 2.5% Con>LD swing to ensure that the Lib Dems hold all three seats in St Margarets again.

It would seem the Liberal Democrats benefited from the lack of Green candidate, although as is usually the case in by-elections the low turnout meant all the parties received fewer votes than they did in May. Despite a reportedly strong campaign in the ward Labour actually slipped back relative to their May performance and may well have suffered from squeeze tactics from the two front runners.

An interesting aspect of next May's local elections will be to see if the Liberal Democrats make these gains stick amidst a more national campaign. Opinion polling has not really registered the sort of recovery we are observing in by-elections and so we'll have to wait and see if the Lib Dems have touched their low water or whether there is still worse to come for the junior coalition partner.

St Margaret's (Ipswich)

By-Election Candidate

Votes

Vote %

+/-

Cathy French (E)

942

41.8%

+6.8%

Stephen Ion

871

38.7%

+1.7%

Glen Chisholm

439

19.5%

-1.8%

Although the Ipswich vacancy was top the billing last Thursday the night really belonged to Labour as they celebrated three victories across the country's two biggest cities. Their win in Sparkbrook, Birmingham was the most notable, especially as the result raises doubts about how much longer Respect will last in its current form.

The by-election was taking place because Respect's Leader Salma Yaqoob resigned due to ill-health and Labour would have immediately fancied their chances of gaining the seat having gained one of Respects three seats in the ward in May. Respect would also be without the personal vote of their Leader, who came a respectable second in Hall Green constituency in 2010 on the same day as she held her Council seat. Victoria Quinn managed to better Labour's performance in the spring and secured a 6.2% swing to easily win this by-election.

This loss leaves Respect with just one Councillor in Birmingham and a couple in the London Borough of Tower Hamlets, where George Galloway sensationally became the party's first and only Member of Parliament in 2005. However, although the Respect group in Tower Hamlets has been reduced to a rump a new grouping in support of the elected Mayor of the Borough Lutfur Rahman has a significant presence on the Council and it will be interesting to see if that survives through an election, or can be transferred beyond Tower Hamlets.

Birmingham City Council

Lab

Con

LD

Res

56

+1

39

-

24

-

1

-1

Sparkbrook

By-Election Candidate

Votes

Vote %

+/-

Victoria Quinn (E)

3932

56.7%

+6.9%

Mohammed Ishtiaq

2301

33.2%

-5.6%

Adil Rashid

395

5.7%

-0.8%

Peter Tinsley

179

2.6%

+0.4%

Sahar Rezazadeh

133

1.9%

-0.8%

In London Labour successfully defended two marginal wards against the Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats respectively. The more difficult defence was in Redbridge where Labour's sole Councillor in the Aldborough ward had resigned because he couldn't keep up with the workload. They need not have worried as Debbie Thiara enjoyed a comfortable victory with a 7.7% swing from the 2010 result.

In Islington Labour were defending the St Mary's ward against the Liberal Democrats and so a hold seemed likely given differing electoral fortunes of the two parties since the ward was last contested. Despite the somewhat controversial circumstances surrounding the vacancy Labour secured an easy victory, with Gary Poole's win representng a 9.7% swing from the Lib Dems to Labour compared to the 2010 result.

"Alea Jacta Est" announced Caesar as he led his troops across the Rubicon river near Rimini in 49BC. The phrase which roughly translates as "The die is cast" was a reference to the fact that Caesar was marching into an area controlled by Pompey and led to the formal establishment of the classical Roman empire and has come to mean in times since an action that means crossing a point of no return.

The 2008 local elections in Wales were seen at the time as a point of no return for Labour. Going into the elections with control of eight councils and 478 councillors, Labour came out of the elections losing control of all but two of the councils (losing their heartlands of Blaenau Gwent to NOC, Flintshire to NOC, Torfaen to NOC and Wrexham to NOC) and at the same time losing 130 councillors (27% of their defending councillors). The ward of Ruabon in Wrexham was a perfect demonstration of this.

In 2004, Nicholas Colbourne won the ward for Labour with a majority of 2 over Cyril Edwards (Independent) with Leon Price polling 140 votes for Plaid Cymru and ending up in third some 10% behind in a five cornered contest. Lab 29.56% Ind 29.27% Plaid 19.80% Lib Dem 10.74% Forward Wales 10.60%

In 2008 (having regained the Assembly constituency of Wrexham from John Marek of Forward Wales), Labour should have expected to hold on to wards like Ruabon, but the electorate had other ideas as on a swing of 15% from Labour to Plaid Cymru, Plaid gained the ward polling 44% of the vote (against Labour's 24% and a Non Party Independent candidate who polled 32%).

Cllr. Leon Price became deputy leader of the Plaid Cymru grouping on the council and also served as Co-Chair of the Finance and Performance Scrutiny Committee but died in the middle of September. Plaid will seek to hold on to a ward that it gained at the height of Labour's unpopularity and have selected Pol Wong (a former martial arts champion) as their candidate. Labour (seeking to regain the seat) have chosen Dana Louise-Davies with the Conservatives selecting Adam Prescot Owen. Andy Kendrick is also standing again as a non party Independent and will hope to improve on his 32% vote share last time and perhaps gain the seat himself from Plaid. Polling opens at 7.00am and closes at 10.00pm with the polling station being located in the village hall of Ruabon.

Wednesday, 9 November 2011

There are four local council by-elections taking place tomorrow, all in marginal wards in urban England.

Aldborough, Redbridge LBC; caused by the resignation of Labour Councillor Mike Figg, allegedly because he couldn't keep up with the workload.

One of the few wards in Greater London that contains any kind of rural area, this is the largest ward in Redbridge, running along the north side of the A12 Eastern Avenue up to the Barking/Dagenham border, and including the Fairlop Waters Country Park. The population of the ward is almost entirely squeezed into the south-west corner in the Aldborough Hatch area and the eastern part of Barkingside. It is served by Newbury Park and Barkingside underground stations on the Hainault Loop of the Central Line.

The ward's census areas are mostly in the middle or slightly below the middle of the deprivation indices; an interesting indicator from the 2001 census is a high Jewish population (12.6%).

In 2010 this was a split ward with Labour gaining one seat from the Conservatives who held the other two. At the 2008 GLA elections the Conservatives led Labour 38.5%-31.9% in the list vote and Boris led Ken by 45.3%-37.6%. With this ward being in the traditionally marginal constituency of Ilford North, and the Coalition currently running the hung Redbridge council, this by-election could be an interesting pointer. Candidates for the by-election are the three main parties plus the Greens, the BNP and UKIP.

This ward covers the north of the town, running from the edge of the town centre around Christchurch Park to the northern edge of the town. Mostly it is a well-off area with the exception of the area around Christchurch Park which is much more working-class.

The ward consistently voted Lib Dem from 2002 to 2010 but was normally marginal, and there were some very close battles with the Conservatives, particularly in 2007 (majority 43) and 2008 (majority 45). After years of trying, the Conservatives finally made a gain in May by just 60 votes, but the Conservative councillor has now resigned after just four months in office. The Lib Dems will be looking to gain the seat back.

St Margaret's (Ipswich)

By-Election Candidate

2011

2010

2008

Stephen Ion (Con)

37.0%

32.9%

40.0%

Cathy French (LD)

35.1%

48.6%

41.7%

Glen Chisholm (Lab)

21.3%

14.2%

11.2%

N/C (Grn)

6.7%

4.3%

7.2%

St Mary's, Islington LBC; caused by the disqualification of a dissident Labour councillor who failed to attend any meetings of the council or its committees in six months.

The heart of Islington, this ward stretches north along the A1 Upper Street from the Angel to the Highbury Corner roundabout and then north-west along the southern edge of the Holloway Road. It is served by Highbury and Islington station, a major interchange for the North London Line, the newly-extended East London Line, the Victoria Line and the Moorgate branch of the mainline rail network; the Moorgate branch's Essex Road station is also in the ward.

Islington has a trendy reputation (Boris Johnson lives in the ward St Peter's ward, where there was recently a by-election), but this is not yet reflected in the census figures; four of the ward's seven census areas are in the 20% most deprived in England, and the other three aren't much better off.

This ward elected three Lib Dem councillors when it was created in 2002, but one of the Lib Dem councillors defected to Labour in 2005 (the one whose disqualification caused this by-election). She held her seat in her new colours in 2006 and Labour gained a second seat in the ward in 2010, when the Lib Dems generally performed poorly in a parliamentary constituency they were targeting. In 2008 Ken beat Boris here by 42.7%-37.0%. It will be interesting to see whether any Labour gain from not being in national government any longer is offset by them now running Islington council. Candidates for the by-election are the three main parties plus the Greens and the BNP.

St Mary's (Islington)

By-Election Candidate

2010

Gary Poole (Lab)

32.9%

Emily Fieran-Reed (LD)

32.0%

Oriel Hutchinson (Con)

20.1%

Caroline Russell (Grn)

11.9%

N/C (Ind)

3.2%

Walter Barfoot (BNP)

-

Sparkbrook, Birmingham MBC; caused by the resignation of high-profile Respect Councillor and Party Leader Salma Yaqoob, due to ill-health.

Where do I start when describing Sparkbrook? It's an extremely depressed inner-city ward in southern Birmingham, including the Sparkbrook and Balsall Heath areas just outside the middle ring road. It is one of the largest wards in England by electorate, with 19,661 people eligible to vote in May's election. It has about twenty census areas, every single one of which is in the most deprived 20% in England. It is the home of the Balti Triangle, Birmingham's equivalent of Manchester's Curry Mile or London's Brick Lane. But there's one thing above all that defines its politics: the 59% of the population who (on slightly different boundaries) gave their religion in the 2001 census as Muslim.

That fact has made Sparkbrook the only stronghold of the Respect party outside London, starting in 2006 when Yaqoob gained a seat from Labour on an enormous swing from the Lib Dems, who topped the poll here in 2004 and won two out of three seats. Respect gained the two Lib Dem seats in 2007 and 2008 and held a by-election in September 2009 after one of their councillors went bankrupt.

Yaqoob was re-elected in 2010, polling more than 5,000 votes, and on the same day came a creditable second in the general election in Birmingham Hall Green, polling 25.1% to 32.9% for Labour; she could have cause to curse the boundary changes which abolished the much more strongly Muslim seat of Birmingham Sparkbrook & Small Heath. However, a change came in May when Labour gained a seat. Labour now have a chance to gain a second seat, and have selected a high-profile candidate in the shape of Victoria Quinn, partner of the veteran Labour group leader Sir Albert Bore, while Respect have selected their former councillor who lost his seat in May. With the ward's large Kashmiri population, Pakistan-style biraderi politics could be crucial in deciding the result.

Tuesday, 8 November 2011

David Cameron has been on the chase for gay votes after successfully scaring all of the women away.

At the Conservative Party conference in Manchester last month he was urging his party to support his proposals to legalise gay marriage. More recently he angered some African leaders by suggesting that the UK would reduce the amount of aid it gives to countries which fail to respect gay rights.

At the conference Cameron said: "Conservatives believe in the ties that bind us; that society is stronger when we make vows to each other and support each other. I don't support gay marriage despite being a Conservative. I support gay marriage because I'm a Conservative."

None of this has anything to do with his ongoing and increasingly uphill (now bordering on vertical) battle to win back the lady's. Vote, that is.

It would be hard to suggest that Cameron has a 'way with women', unless of course that 'way' involves sending them running in the opposite direction. Whilst, worryingly, he's grown on me a bit since becoming Prime Minister, the same cannot be said across the female spectrum.

According to a recent YouGov poll one in three women think that David Cameron is a male chauvinistic pig.

Ok, that's not strictly true but he was voted as the most 'male chauvinist ' , although out of a pool of himself, Nick Clegg and Ed Miliband is that really saying a lot? Even Pingu, a little animated penguin, would probably beat Nick Clegg and Ed Miliband in a chauvinisticity contest.

And this is fine, actually, because that's what we want in our modern day politicians. We've moved away a bit from the aggressive, macho power hungry politics.

We like our politicians to be clean shaven and well dressed, intelligent and thoughtful. Preferably not getting drunk or having affairs and all of that dirty business. The likes of Cameron are well advised in ensuring that they are perceived in the right way, ie. not menacing to children, looking interested when women are talking and so on.

Despite this he has managed to do enough to make all of the women in the country hate him (see 'Calm Down Dear-Gate for more).

Obviously we don't all hate him. But his commons slip-ups, along with widespread reports that Tory policy disproportionally affects women, haven't done much to help him. This is of course largely referring to the cuts made to try and get the country's finances back on track which are said to affect women more than any other social group.

Not much has changed since the last update, but as that was only five days ago I'm sure that has something to do with it!

We knew about the Kingston-upon-Thames vacancy last week but since then a date has been set and another Councillor in the ward has resigned.

The vacancy in Waveney has an interesting back story; the Conservative Councillor Andrew Draper was caught drink driving and made matters worse by assaulting a police officer as they tried to handcuff him. This all happened in August and Draper had already resigned from the cabinet and left the Conservatives before finally vacating his Council seat today.

(I think) Tomorrow is an important date for Council by-elections as the 'six-month' rule comes into force. Any vacancy in a seat up for election in 2012 will be left empty until May's elections. In practice, even if the term does not end next year vacant seats in wards which will be voting anyway may well be left until the big polling day anyway.

We have four by-elections on Thursday, and they're in more interesting wards than last week's batch; the usual coverage will be provided.