Right Angle began as a column in the now-defunct Sunday magazine in November 1991. The column allowed me the luxury of presenting an alternative to the prevailing left-liberal consensus in India. It has become the implicit signature tune for all my subsequent writings.

Friday, July 27, 2012

Which way will the President swing?

By Swapan Dasgupta

The victory of Pranab Mukherjee in last Sunday’s
presidential election has triggered a bout of speculation over how he will
handle his new responsibilities. Unlike the distant past when the occupant of
Rashtrapati Bhavan was condemned to a largely ceremonial role owing to the
presence of a strong Prime Minister with a commanding majority in Parliament,
there is intense interest about how the President will conduct himself in the
event no single party or pre-election formation secures a majority in the next
general election.

The speculation is warranted. Despite the fact that
President Mukherjee has been a Congress loyalist for most of his political
life—apart from a two-year stint as the unsuccessful leader of a breakaway
formation, his selection as the UPA candidate was mired in some confusion and
uncertainty. There are grounds to believe that the selection of Mukherjee was
forced by the brief rebellion of Mulayam Singh Yadav and Mamata Banerjee. It is
entirely possible that had the threat of former President APJ Abdul Kalam also
jumping into the fray not been there, either Hamid Ansari or Meira Kumar may
have ended up as the Congress’ choice. It is fair to assume that Mukherjee,
despite his high standing, suffered from a trust deficit with the UPA
Chairperson.

The reason for this wariness is said to be located
in the stand Mukherjee took in the immediate aftermath of Indira Gandhi’s
assassination in 1984. At that time Mukherjee proffered the view, based
entirely on his understanding of precedents, that President Zail Singh should
swear-in the senior-most member of the Cabinet as the interim Prime Minister.
In both 1964 and 1966, after the deaths of Jawaharlal Nehru, President
Radhakrishnan had administered the oath of office to Gulzari Lal Nanda. It was
after the funerals that the Congress Parliamentary Party met to elect their
leader.

To say that Mukherjee was guided by personal ambition
is a conjecture. Judging by his personality, particularly his obsessive
fascination with history and precedents, it is equally fair to argue that he
was merely trying to be correct. Looking back, it seems outrageous that an
ordinary General Secretary of the Congress, a person with no administrative
experience, was sworn-in as Prime Minister. Regardless of the fact that Rajiv
Gandhi was unanimously endorsed by the CLP subsequently, the question arises:
on what basis did Giani Zail Singh take his decision? By that logic, President
Mukherjee will be within his rights to appoint Congress General Secretary
Digvijay Singh as interim Prime Minister in the event of an unexpected vacancy
in Race Course Road. If that sounds preposterous, how can the President’s
decision in 1984 be justified? A break from convention cannot, after all, be
justified because the beneficiary is a member of a particular family.

What is clear from the extraordinary events of 1984—never
adequately scrutinised because of the extraordinary circumstances of Indira
Gandhi’s death—is that there are discretionary powers available in the hands of
the President to shape the course of politics. Because of special
circumstances, it is unlikely that there would have been a challenger to Rajiv
Gandhi for the top job. Nevertheless, the President’s decision presented the
CLP with a fait accompli. The MPs were left with just no other choice in the
matter.

In 1984, Pranab Mukherjee was extremely courageous
by putting propriety over reckless innovation. For this miscalculation he paid
a very heavy price. Yet, now that he no longer has to answer to the Congress’
first family, are his priorities going to be shaped by this sense of
correctness? The fear that President Mukherjee will not allow his personal
preferences to allow any Constitutional subterfuge has been uppermost in the
minds of those who see politics as the quest for power at all costs.

The problem, however, is that there are just too
many conflicting precedents. In 1989, 1991 and 1996, the President invited the
leader of the single-party to form the Government. In 1989, Rajiv Gandhi turned
down the offer because he did not command a majority. However, in 1996, Atal
Behari Vajpayee formed a Government despite not having a majority. The BJP
failed to muster the additional numbers in 13 days of office and the Government
fell.

As a result of the 1996 experience, President K.R.
Narayanan demanded to see letters of support from potential allies when he
invited Vajpayee (who was head of both the largest party and the largest
pre-poll alliance) in 1998. The President wanted to satisfy himself that the
new government was in a position to secure a majority. However, it was this
same principle that came in the way of Sonia Gandhi becoming Prime Minister in
1999. There is little doubt that had the Congress formed the government, its
natural resourcefulness would have enabled it to cobble together a majority.
Indeed, President Narayanan went beyond the call of office and actually tried
to persuade Mulayam to extend support—an
act which can be justified by the desire to avoid a second election a year
after the previous one. But it didn’t quite work out.

Of course, the
ultimate test of majority is in Parliament. But the President has a range of
options to choose from to determine who will have the first throw of the dice.
The next two years will witness endless star gazing to determine what he deems will
be most appropriate. The President’s discretionary powers are adding to the nervousness
in the political class.

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About Me

The Right is an endangered community in India's English-language media. I happen to be one of the few to have retained a precarious toehold in the mainstream media. I intend this blog as a sounding board of ideas and concerns.
You can read the details of my education, professional experience and political inclinations on Wikipedia (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Swapan_Dasgupta).
RIGHT ANGLE is an archive of my published articles. USUAL SUSPECTS is my blog.