Gaming Guru

Knowing What to Expect - The Third Leg of Basic Video Poker Strategy

Over the past few weeks, we've introduced the concept of the
three legged stool for Video Poker. Each leg being an important part of becoming
an Expert Player and enhancing your time playing. The first leg is knowing what
games to play. The second leg is playing the right strategy. The last leg is
knowing what to expect.

How does knowing what to expect enhance our Video Poker experience? If you
were a robot, it wouldn't. However, we are all human and prone to human emotions.
If we let these emotions distract us when playing, there's a good chance we're
going to forget or at least partially ignore legs one and/or two.

By knowing what to expect, we can begin to realize that the hot and cold streaks
we go through are actually normal random swings of a machine. With this, we
can stay focused on the strategy we have learned and realize that while hot
and cold streaks exist, we DO NOT want to alter from our Expert Strategy.

So, what can we expect? Where does one start to answer this question? Because
Video Poker uses a known Random Deck (okay 'Pseudo' Random Deck), and uses a
known and disclosed paytable, virtually EVERYTHING about the game can be analyzed.
Of course, all this analysis is 'over the long run', so we have no way of knowing
what the next hand holds for us, or whether or not we'll catch the Royal when
we hold Four to a Royal. It can, however, give us some idea of what we can expect
when we sit down at a particular game.

The problem is, there is SO MUCH information available, that trying to figure
out what's important can actually be the tricky part. I've dug up some numbers
that I hope you will find enlightening.

Assuming a Jacks or Better Full-Pay (9/6) machine, the following table shows
the frequency of post-draw hands:

HAND

FREQUENCY

Royal
Flush

Once
Every

40,120 Hands

Straight
Flush

Once
Every

9,610 Hands

4
of a Kind

Once
Every

423 Hands

Full
House

Once
Every

87 Hands

Flush

Once
Every

92 Hands

Straight

Once
Every

90 Hands

3
of a Kind

Once
Every

13 Hands

Two
Pairs

13
Times Every

100 Hands

High
Pair

43
Times Every

200 Hands

Non-Winners

54%
of All Hands

Looking at this table, we can see how often we expect to wind
up with certain hands. Also key in this table is the fact that more than half
our hands will be losers. Roughly 1 in 5 hands will wind up as a High Pair.
Straights, Flushes and Full Houses all occur at about the same rate, despite
their different payouts. It should be noted that this table applies ONLY to
9/6 Jacks or Better. Every change in the paytable causes changes in the strategy
table which in turn changes the frequency table.

As stated earlier, with all the computer programs out there,
Video Poker can be analyzed in so many ways. There is no one answer to which
numbers are the most important. Whichever figures give you a sense of what
to expect and will keep you focused on your strategy are the ones you should
strive to find. There are a couple of sets of numbers that I, personally,
find helpful to keep me focused, besides the one listed above.

One is the frequency of Pre-Draw hands. This is an extension
of the full Strategy Table. It lists how often you can expect each type of
hand in a Strategy Table to occur. From this, you can get a sense of how often
to expect each hand. For me, most importantly, you get a sense of what are
the most common hands to expect. You can also tell how often to expect a Razgu
(Draw 5), which of course can be an exasperating hand. Frequency tables can
often be found in books and programs that list Strategy Tables.

The second set of numbers, less frequently found published,
is the frequency of final hands given a particular pre-draw hand. In other
words, how often will a Low Pair turn into a Three of a Kind? A Full House?
The numbers are relatively easy to calculate using computers. Of course, listing
all the Post-Draw hands for each Pre-Draw hand would take page after page
if published. I've put together a few key statistics below. In Jacks or Better,
these 2 Pre-Draw Hands make up about 40% of all hands.

Starting
with: Low Pair (EV = .82)

Starting
with: 1 Jack (HON1) (EV = .47)

Final Hand

Occurs

%

Final Hand

Occurs

%

-
Four of a Kind

45

.28

-
Royal Flush

1

.00056

-
Full House

165

1.02

-
Straight Flush

3

.00168

-
Three of a Kind

1854

11.43

- Four
of a Kind

52

.03

-
Two Pair

2592

15.99

-
Full House

288

.16

-
Losing Hand

11559

71.29

-
Flush

326

.18

Total

16215

100.00

-
Straight

780

.44

-
Three of a Kind

4102

2.30

-
Two Pair

8874

4.98

-
Jacks or Better

45456

25.48

-
Losing Hand

118483

66.43

Total

178365

100.00

What can we learn from looking at these tables? First of all, each will result
in roughly the same percentage of losing hands. More than half of your non-losing
hands with the '1 Jack' will result in a Jacks or Better, returning your bet.
A third of all hands starting with a Low-Pair will result in Two Pairs or Three
of a Kind. The longer we review these tables, the more numbers we can come up
with, and these are just TWO tables! It should be noted that the numbers above
are just AVERAGES. It's not uncommon for something that occurs 5% of the time
(i.e. 1 in 20) to not occur for 30 or 40 times in a row, or perhaps you'll hit
it twice or even three times in a row!

The key to knowing what to expect is to realize that most everything that occurs
while you're playing Video Poker is well within 'the norm'. Machines will have
'hot streaks' and 'cold streaks' and these are just the normal ups and downs
of random numbers. Once you realize this, you'll realize that the only thing
you can do is to keep playing using the Expert Strategy that you have learned,
which will maximize your chances to walk away a winner.

Over the past month, we've covered the three key components that my father,
Lenny Frome, introduced more than a decade ago, that make up the 'three-legged
stool' of Video Poker. I added my own 'comfy cushion' on top, suggesting that
you make sure to play games that you enjoy playing as well. All that's left
to do is to remember the three keys to mastering Expert Strategy:

Elliot Frome is a 2nd generation gaming author and analyst. His father, Lenny Frome was considered one of the premier authors of Video Poker books. Titles include, Expert Video Poker for Las Vegas and Winning Strategies for Video Poker, which includes the strategy tables for 61 of the country’s most popular versions of Video Poker. Check out Compu-Flyers website at www.vpheaven.com, or drop Elliot an e-mail at compuflyers@prodigy.net.

Elliot Frome Websites:

Books by Elliot Frome:

Elliot Frome is a 2nd generation gaming author and analyst. His father, Lenny Frome was considered one of the premier authors of Video Poker books. Titles include, Expert Video Poker for Las Vegas and Winning Strategies for Video Poker, which includes the strategy tables for 61 of the country’s most popular versions of Video Poker. Check out Compu-Flyers website at www.vpheaven.com, or drop Elliot an e-mail at compuflyers@prodigy.net.

Books by Elliot Frome:

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