Population forecast

Explore your future population with the REGINA Demographic Foresight Model

Large industrial projects can have significant impact on the population and workforce in small communities, often requiring them to revisit local plans and adapt their services, such as healthcare and education, to match the changing needs. The REGINA Demographic Foresight Model (DFM) allows local planners to explore the different population scenarios that may arise in relation to resource-based industrial development projects.

Turning the tide in Storuman

The REGINA DFM shows the long-term impacts of socio-economic change in small communities, for instance the opening of a mine or new aquaculture projects. It allows local planners to predict how many people will relocate to the community for new jobs,or leave if an industry closes down, and then visualises the impact on the size and composition of the local population.

In Storuman in Swedish Lapland, the REGINA DFM has been used to study the impacts of a large gold mining project, which is currently undergoing a feasibility study. Situated just outside Storuman, the mine is expected to attract around 140 people to the municipality, which has a population of 6,000. This is a noteworthy increase, especially in light of the fact that the population decreased by 56 people in 2015-2016, but grew by one person in 2014 and another three people in 2017.

“Before that, our population decreased by around 50 people per year," says Jimmy Lindberg, Strategist at Storuman Municipality. “The DFM has enabled us to visualise what needs to be done to change the trend and stabilise or increase the population. While the new mine would be a big boost, we would need several similar scenarios to reverse the trend.”

Proactive planning for demographic change

Storuman has been involved in the planning of various large-scale industrial development projects, including mining, hydroelectric power plants and wind farms, but is nevertheless facing many of the challenges that are common to rural towns all around the world. Young people are leaving to find education and jobs, and there is a shortage of attractive housing for new residents as building costs exceed the market value of property in the area.

“The REGINA DFM has helped us identify the most important demographic issues which need to be addressed,” says Karina Umander, local project manager for the REGINA project. “Initiatives to stimulate the local business environment have been launched and an in-migration service has been established to make it easier to move to the municipality and find housing, employment and leisure activities.”

"The DFM has enabled us to visualise what needs to be done to change the trend and stabilise or increase the population."

“A big mine is not only labour intensive, it also affects the municipality in many ways,” Umander continues. “The REGINA DFM helps ensure that everyone; the municipality, the planning department and various community groups and organisations, have correct information to base further actions on.”

In addition, Lindberg stresses the value of being proactive when planning for new industrial activity.

“With the REGINA tools, this doesn’t have to be costly, but it can certainly be of great value at a later stage,” he says. “Timely planning of areas for housing, infrastructure and industry allows us to react faster when we succeed in attracting large projects to the area.”

"The DFM has enabled us to visualise what needs to be done to change the trend and stabilise or increase the population."

Diving into the wider impact on the community

In Scotland, the REGINA DFM has been used to address a different situation, namely the closure of the nuclear power complex in Dounreay, which was established in the 1950’s. It has since been the largest single employer in the area, employing around 1,500 people.

“The closure of the Douenray nuclear power plant will have a profound impact on the local economy,” says Magnus Davidson, researcher at the University of Highlands and Islands Environmental Research Institute.

The decommissioning process, including the dismantling of three nuclear reactors, is scheduled for completion by the early 2030’s, but according to Davidson the process is likely to stretch past the early 2030’s to later in the decade. The REGINA DFM has provided a clear visual overview of the different scenarios.

“Using the Demographic Foresight Model has allowed us to model the official line, in which the decommission is finished by 2030. Using local knowledge and data, we then went on to explore the scenarios that we consider more realistic in terms of when these labour changes will occur.”

According to Davidson, it is important to keep in mind that the much-reduced employment numbers are only part of the full story. The workers also have families and children, which magnifies the impact on the community.

“The REGINA DFM enables you to make assumptions about issues such as school numbers and whether or not the healthcare system can maintain the same level of service. It provides the data necessary to explain the full story about the wider impact on the community.”

The REGINA DFM is one of three key planning resources that were developed as part of the REGINA Local Smart Specialisation Strategy – LS3. The aim is to empower small and remote communities by giving them planning tools to better deal with the introduction of large-scale resource-based industrial projects or for that matter with the socio-economic change following the closure of an important local industry.