DP World Tour Championship Preview, Betting Tips & Guide to Odds

The Race to Dubai reaches its climax in Dubai this week with four golfers still in with a chance of claiming the ultimate prize on the European tour, writes Matt. Alex Noren made a significant move on Sunday as he clinched the Nedbank Challenge but while the race between Noren, Henrik Stenson, Rory McIlroy and Danny Willett is very much alive, there is an important and very lucrative tournament to be won this week.

The Favourite

Not a huge surprise at the head of the betting here: Two time winner and reigning DP World Tour Champion Rory McIlroy goes off in front of the pack at odds of 3/1 across most bookies including Bet365 and Paddy Power. Rory also recorded a second place in a three-way tie behind Henrik Stenson back in 2014 and is well rested coming into this event so is a logical option at the top of the market.

Stenson himself is also heavily backed going into Thursday’s tee off times and the Swede is currently available at odds of 6/1 with Bet365 and Boylesports. Again, there are no real surprises here as Stenson has also won this event on two previous occasions – in 2013 and 2014 – but that’s a similar run to his exploits at the Nedbank, where he was many points clear of the field ahead of last week’s renewal. The reigning Open Champion finished a commendable eighth in South Africa but having been heavily backed prior to the off, that 6/1 looks a little short.

The chasing pack

Alex Noren’s chances of lifting the Nedbank were widely written off as it was felt that he didn’t have the game to suit the Gary Player course in Sun City. We took a very modest return on the Swede in the top ten markets and form suggests that Noren is worth a look here at odds of 16/1 with Bet365 and BetVictor.

He has four wins from his last 11 starts too but his back to back record is disappointing so at best, I’d take a punt on a top five finish at 10/3 with Coral.

Slightly further back at a tempting 30/1 with BetFred is South African Louis Oosthuizen who threatened at the Nedbank in admittedly familiar conditions last week. There were hints of his best form on the first two days so don’t write off a former major winner who is also available in the top five market at 13/2 with Coral.

Outside punts

One man getting a lot of attention among the press columns is Victor Dubuisson who had been hinting at his 2014 form prior to last week’s Tied 3rd place in South Africa. The Frenchman is another man with a strong record in this tournament – his last three finishes are 3-2-13 – and is priced at an industry best of 50/1 with Boylesports and BetVictor to take the trophy.

Interestingly, although Danny Willett has showed brief signs of a return to form, the Masters winner is out at 45/1 with BetVictor and Boylesports. He is still in with a chance in terms of the Race to Dubai but fitness concerns have been among that patchy form and I would avoid him here.

The course

Since this tournament was first held in 2009, the worst winning score was Robert Karlsson’s -14 in 2010 with the average coming in at a shade above -20. Scoring may be low but previous results suggest that accuracy into the green is going to be far more important than putting itself. In fact, of all previous winners, only McIlroy in 2014 ranked inside the top ten for putting across the four days.

However, all the stats do keep pointing to a shoot out between the two favourites with the bookies and for those that can’t see any value for Stenson and McIlroy, you can bet without them in a market where Noren leads the way at 11/1 with BetVictor.

Personally, although odds of 3/1 in the win markets holds no interest, I can see Rory continuing his brilliant run here. He’s a man who often saves his best European form until the end and a third victory in this tournament is more than a possibility.

For better priced options, I would look at the Top Five finish betting where Dubuisson is the best of the bunch at 9/1 with Paddy Power and BetFred. Other picks for this particular market are Oosthuizen at 13/2 with Coral and the consistent Tyrell Hatton at 9/1 with the same bookmaker.