Well, here we are: the Alabama/Notre Dame matchup we predicted back in week eight. The SEC title game was a bit closer than we projected, but weird plays like a FG blocked and returned for a touchdown -- along with the ensuing 10-point swing -- can do that. While previous years have been the Year of Non-BCS Teams, this was clearly the Year of the SEC. The SEC holds four of the top six spots in the TFG rankings, and two more in the top 15. The numbers point pretty heavily to yet another Alabama championship, so let's look at some of the other teams.

Notre Dame improved 2.1 PPH on offense, but 3.9 PPH on defense. Even small improvements on defense can yield big results in your win-loss record, and 3.9 PPH is big. Even if Notre Dame hadn't improved their offense at all from last year, they'd be ranked fifth in our top 25 right now.

This year's Oregon team is a slight improvement over last year's model; their offensive efficiency went up 1.9 PPH, and their defense only slipped by 0.3 PPH. Another year of progress along those lines, and they'll be the clear #2 team in the country.

Stanford experienced a huge drop-off on offense -- a full 7.7 PPH -- but actually picked it up on defense by 2.4 PPH. That was enough to offset the loss of Andrew Luck, and resulted in only a 0.026 drop in expected win percentage.

Wisconsin has been erratic, winning big against "meh" teams, and losing by a field goal to good teams. Seriously, four of their five losses have been by three points (the fifth was by a touchdown to Ohio State). They're another team that had a big drop-off on offense (6.6 PPH) but clawed some of it back on defense (1.0 PPH).

Boise State entered a rebuilding year, and managed to do pretty well for themselves. They had two losses -- one on the road at Michigan State, and a freak loss to SDSU where the Aztecs got 14 of their 21 points off a kickoff return for a TD and an 8-yard drive off a turnover -- and blew through the rest of their schedule. The Broncos will be moving to the Big East next year, and considering the top Big East team in the TFG rankings is (22) Cincinnati, look for Boise to establish themselves as early favorites.

As for the coming bowl season, watch for our annual bowl previews starting in a few weeks.

We arrive at the "end" of the regular season (only Army-Navy remaining) with few surprises. Alabama finishes the regular season in the top spot thanks to the #1 defense and #2 offense. Oregon and Notre Dame finish tied for second thanks to the #1 offense and #2 defense, respectively. Looking forward to the national championship game, RBA will favor the Crimson Tide; the only question is how much.

SEC runner-up Georgia finishes tied with Texas A&M for #6 behind #4 Florida and #5 LSU. Georgia fans should thank their lucky stars that SEC schedule makers continue to push the easy button for the Bulldogs. They cakewalked through Auburn and Ole Miss from the west as the Gators played LSU and Texas A&M and the Gamecocks played LSU and Arkansas without a healthy Marcus Lattimore. You have to wonder if the Bulldogs were really the best team in the SEC East.

Personally, I'm most surprised by Stanford finishing the regular season in the top 10. There's no way I would have expected a team to lose Andrew Luck, beat Oregon, nearly beat Notre Dame on the road, and find their way into the Rose Bowl. Much like Texas A&M beating Alabama, that's why they play the games.

Our mid-major of the year remains Boise State, but kudos to Utah State finishing the season at #22.

Where's the SEC title game? GUGS shades towards close games, and TFG thinks the Dawgs are going to get blown out (no offense, Georgia fans). This, however, should be closer. The last time they played this year it was at Nebraska, and the Cornhuskers eeked out a 3-point victory; that kind of loss seems to be Wisconsin's MO this year, with four losses by exactly a field goal (their other loss was to Ohio State by a touchdown). Wisconsin's lost a lot of offense from last year, but has still been (opponent-and-pace-adjusted) very efficient. Nebraska hasn't been a slouch, either, and with both defenses in the "good" but not "outstanding" category, this looks to be a close, relatively high-scoring affair between two top-20 teams. The Badgers will try and slow things down, while the Huskers will pick up the pace a bit. It'll be a good game with no clear favorite, but since Nebraska doesn't have home field advantage this time, look for the Badgers to eek out a close win in the end. The predicted margin is, fittingly, a field goal. Wisconsin 37, Nebraska 34 (55.5%); 161 plays.

Eddie

Team

WinPct

SoS

Off.

Def.

Pace

19

Nebraska

0.863

0.533

45

18.7

35

11.5

23

167.1

65

16

Wisconsin

0.882

0.531

47

20.8

22

11.0

16

161.6

112

What? No Alabama-Georgia? If you must know, it's because RBA doesn't think that game is going to be very competitive (31-17, Alabama). On the other hand, Nebraska-Wisconsin should be a pretty good game, even if not matching two teams in the BCS top three. The formerly unstoppable Badger offense has proven itself inconsistent in 2012, notching a 32.6 +/- 23.6 PPH performance. Their defense isn't Alabama or Notre Dame, but a 4.8 +/- 12.4 PPH very respectable. The Huskers sport a similarly effective defense at 3.6 +/- 16.0 PPH. The key in this game is the Nebraska offensive consistency. They haven't always been flashy, but the Cornhuskers 21.9 +/- 6.3 PPH demonstrates a predictability that RBA likes. RBA says that Nebraska wins the Big Ten, 28-24, with 58.8% confidence.

Coin Toss Game of the Week

UCF Knights at Tulsa Golden Hurricane

GUGS Score: 58.5

Eddie

Team

WinPct

SoS

Off.

Def.

Pace

50

Tulsa

0.609

0.466

92

16.1

66

14.1

43

171.9

16

36

UCF

0.713

0.461

97

18.4

38

14.1

40

163.5

104

For what it's worth, history is on my side. Tulsa beat UCF three weeks ago, 23-21. UCF's offense simply isn't consistent. A 30.7 +/- 24.6 PPH performance will only look good because Tulsa isn't very good on defense at 11.2 +/- 5.8 PPH. The only reason why Tulsa will win this game is because UCF's 10.0 +/- 8.3 PPH defense is even worse. It will be ugly, but expect a 27-24 Tulsa victory with 54.4% confidence.

Justin

Team

WinPct

SoS

Off.

Def.

Pace

44

Tulsa

0.598

0.421

81

20.0

70

17.1

28

178.3

10

33

UCF

0.636

0.354

114

24.9

27

19.9

50

156.9

108

I'm not sure a two-point victory at home is really having history on your side, but whatever. This game is a tale of two teams with opposing strengths and weaknesses: Tulsa has no offense, but a relatively solid D, while UCF has a good offense, but a middling defense. These teams are also on opposite ends of the tempo spectrum; Tulsa will want to go-go-go, while UCF is a more patient team. This will be close, but TFG thinks the Knights will get revenge for their loss a few weeks ago. UCF 35, Tulsa 33 (54.0%); 167 plays.