As a former European Automotive correspondent for Reuters, I’ve a spent a few years writing about the industry. I will penetrate the corporate hype and bluster and find out how these gigantic enterprises are really doing. I also love to drive their magnificent machines, and their more modest ones. I’ll be telling you if the technology works, too.

GENEVA, Switzerland – Stagnation beats decline, so leaders of Europe’s auto industry gathering here this week for the first big car show of the year will have some reason for optimism.

Most experts reckon Western Europe car sales will recover from the long slump with perhaps a two or three per cent gain in 2014. But the torrid period since the global financial crash has seen the disappearance of more than 2-1/2 million sales every year in Western Europe. Nobody expects those glory days to return any time soon, not least because Europe has not been able to repeat the incisive but brutal action by the U.S. government which oversaw the bankruptcy of General MotorsGeneral Motors and Chrysler. The U.S. overcapacity problem was addressed and sales there have accelerated back towards glory day levels.

McLaren 650 S coupe will debut in Geneva

Europe’s (or rather the non-German Europeans) chronic overcapacity remains, with news of the recent humiliating bailout of PeugeotPeugeot-Citroen by France and a Chinese company, a reminder that governments are unwilling to countenance incisive action to shut excess production, even if it means long-term failure to make profits. German manufacturers like Europe’s market leader Volkswagen underwent painful reform in the mid-noughties to tackle over-manning, excess production, and inefficiency.

The stabilizing of sales in Western Europe hasn’t impressed Bernstein Research analyst Max Warburton.

“There’s not much compelling evidence that demand is really recovering,” Warburton said.

Warburton does though see some small grounds for optimism.

“The data suggests many markets are near a trough and contain some encouraging signs to support the view that demand can recover. We are currently forecasting only a minor improvement in car sales in 2014 of three per cent. But the evidence is building that this may prove too conservative,” Warburton said.

The new cars making their debuts at the annual Geneva show reflect this lack of dynamism, as most seem to be developments of old models with little in the way of exciting new technology.

Germany luxury manufacturer BMW will be showing its first front-wheel drive car, the 2-series minivan. RenaultRenault of France’s new little Twingo, developed jointly with Daimler’s Mercedes to replace its Smart city-car, will unusually for a small car have rear-wheel drive. The joint venture between Peugeot-Citroen of France and Japan’s Toyota will unveil new versions of its city cars in the form of the Peugeot 108, Citroen C1, and Toyota Aygo. There will be new supercars from McLaren, Lamborghini and Ferrari. AudiAudi will show off its new A3 plug-in hybrid, and its redesigned TT sports car. Over-priced electric cars with unpredictable range will be everywhere but represent more of a token gesture, as manufacturers struggle to sell these cars to an unwilling public awaiting more range and lower costs.

Dr Peter Wells of the Centre of Automotive Industry Research at the Cardiff Business School shares the view that Europe is a long way from restoring the good old days.

“Europe remains in a difficult place, and there’s no real sign of a resurgence. I don’t see (pre-recession) conditions returning maybe ever. We might have peaked in a market like Europe,” Wells said.

Wells said this wasn’t surprising when you consider how many European governments have been trying to make car usage less attractive, with restrictions on use in cities, higher tax on cars and gasoline.

The threadbare European economy doesn’t help, with huge youth unemployment making car ownership look like a luxury rather than necessity to potential young buyers.

Wells said in the European market mainstream mass car makers like Peugeot, Renault, Ford and GM Europe, and Fiat – were being attacked from below by Koreans and low cost brands like Dacia (owned by Renault), while the premium Germans like BMW, Mercedes and VW’s Audi were being forced by E.U. fuel efficiency rules to make smaller cars, which brought pressure to bear from above.

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