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NYFCC Announces Winners: ‘American Hustle’ Shifts the Race

The New York Film Critics Circle announced its full list of winners for the 2013 calendar year, pushing the awards season floodgates wide open. The NYFCC tends to influence major categories at the Oscars, including Best Picture, where its crowning of American Hustle as the year’s best film throws a speed bump onto the road we all thought had been laid out in front of 12 Years a Slave.

Influencing SAG voters seems likely as well for the NYFCC, as SAG ballots aren’t due until December 9th. With Redford’s win only complicating the Best Actor race (Bruce Dern has one major win at Cannes, Redford takes the crown here) even further, it primarily functions as blow to Chiwetel Ejiofor’s chances at the Oscars. Either a larger push from the SAG will happen as a result of Redford’s win, or Redford will steamroll through to the SAG Awards and conquer the field.

Ejiofor needs as much steam as he can get, as 12 Years a Slave‘s predicted domination of the Oscar precursors seems less likely now that the NYFCC has declared a clear affinity for American Hustle, giving the film wins for Best Picture, Jennifer Lawrence, and for Screenplay. That’s not a fluke win here or there; these are formidable wins in huge categories. This push means something more so than the Spirit, Gotham, and Satellite awards do.

Underestimating David O. Russell’s ability to play the Oscar game was a dangerous thing for the pundits to do. Even without the Weinstein push, American Hustle has gone from questionable outsider to a solid third or fourth place in the race for Best Picture, possibly even nudging Gravity out of the way for second place.

Gravity needs to start winning at the precursors if its Best Picture chances are to remain alive. Not winning for Cinematography here (it lost to Inside Llewyn Davis, a formidable and worthy competitor in the category) could be huge, as the film’s best chances outside of the major categories were thought to have been in the techs. It’s a film people largely remember for three things: Bullock’s performance, the visual effects, and Emmanuel Lubezki’s camerawork. Its Best Picture chances merely resulted from its overwhelming success with critics and audiences. Perhaps the precursor awards are merely pulling us back to earth, as the film’s script is somewhat weaker than the rest of this year’s offerings. It’ll still rank among the year’s best films in the Best Picture race, and I fully expect the HFPA to eat it up.

It’s a shame that the tide from the Hustle wave seems to be turning so quickly away from Lupita Nyong’o and Oprah Winfrey for their terrific performances in 12 Years a Slave and The Butler, but–as with Sandra Bullock and her win for The Blind Side–Jennifer Lawrence’s bankability, likeability, and unstoppable star-power have catapulted her into a career position most actors don’t attain after a few decades let alone after only two years. I’m afraid that peaking this early could spell trouble for Lawrence’s later career, however, as two Oscars in a row might start to precede the quality of her work, leading to astronomical expectations for an actress whose appeal largely thrives on her unpredictable, unhinged nature both in interviews and within her films. It seems that the film’s other performances aren’t getting as much recognition as Lawrence, however, as Silver Linings Playbook‘s appeal was deeply rooted in its cast. Without the Weinsteins on board to push for Oscar nominations in each category, the film’s success could be determined by the SAG and if it recognizes the entire cast (or just Lawrence and Amy Adams). If that happens, it could mean lights out for 12 Years a Slave as a whole.

Cate Blanchett continues on the path to Best Actress glory, and Sarah Polley also collects a nice little push for Stories We Tell in the documentary category (the shortlist was revealed today, and the film is on it), as does Steve McQueen for his win for directing 12 Years a Slave. He becomes the first black filmmaker to win Best Director at the NYFCC Awards, and it seems unlikely that the Oscar story will be any different. The only question remains is whether or not American Hustle is simply finding a one-time home with the New York Film Critics Circle, or if this is a much broader portent of glory to come for David O. Russell.

‘According to our critic David Edelstein, who is one of the NYFCC’s members, the final vote for Best Picture resulted in a rare tie-breaker. NYFCC by-laws prevent the actual numbers from being released, but Edelstein said there was a strong American Hustle camp and a strong 12 Years a Slave camp (reflected in McQueen’s best director win), and that the vote was remarkably close, with some members expressing “visible dismay” when the final number was tallied.’

If this is true now–this early in the race–the push for American Hustle is only going to get stronger. I think this year is heading into Brokeback Mountain/Crash territory between AmericanHustle and 12 Years a Slave. This just proves that there’s immediate passion and urgency behind Russell’s work, and that’s ever-powerful in today’s Oscar races. I just had a discussion with Sasha Stone on Twitter about it, and she seems to think AH exists “within a vacuum,” because there’s no reviews and such, which is an entirely valid point. People’s affections for Russell are clear, though, and he’sl has proven that people feel immediate affection that lasts in short, powerful bursts year after year. It pushed Silver Linings Playbook to Oscar glory, and it could do the same for American Hustle.