A Model for Social Change

Generations: The History of America's Future, 1584 to 2069. By
William Strauss and Neil Howe. New York: Morrow, 1991.

The Fourth Turning: An American Prophecy. By
William Strauss and Neil Howe. New York: Broadway Books, 1997.

Millennials Rising: The Next Great Generation. By
Neil Howe and Bill Strauss. New York: Vintage Books, 2000.

Achieving fundamental social change seems to be both difficult and
slow. How many decades have we worked for painfully minute changes in
human treatment of animals? But there may be good news for vegetarians,
radical environmental activists, and other advocates of fundamental
social change. We could be entering a dramatic new phase of history, in
which in a relatively short period of time about twenty to twenty-five
years, we could see enormous world-wide social changes which would
dwarf anything we’ve seen in our lifetimes.

According to William Strauss and Neil Howe, the decisive engine for
social change is not the objective conditions forcing us to change --
whether it is war, economic distress, technological opportunity, or
something similar. Rather, it is the sociological and psychological
conditions caused by the interplay of different generations. Each
generation -- whether it be the Baby Boomers, Generation X, or the older
so-called "silent" generation -- has a unique character, and
it is in the relationships between the generations that movements for
change gather force and finally transform society, whether for better or
worse.

Strauss and Howe do not take sides on the nature of this crisis; they
are not (as far as I know) vegetarians, environmental activists,
advocates of simple living, or anything like that. What they do
talk about is the fact -- and timing -- of social crises, and that is
what makes their books so interesting.

The Character of Generations

According to Strauss and Howe, each generation has a unique
character, reflecting the majority viewpoint its members, which it
retains throughout its lifetime. Each generation is different
because, basically, each generation becomes more and more
individualistic and less and less civic-minded. Those of us who are
"baby boomers" remember very well all the talk about the
so-called "generation gap" -- so many of those who were young
adults during the Vietnam War saw the world so very differently from our
parents. But the same thing applies to "Generation X," which
followed the baby boomers.

Strauss and Howe identify four different generational types.
(Confusingly, they give different names to these types in their
different books, but I will use the terminology in Generations.)

-- The Civic generation is a generation which experiences
their youth in a time of major crisis, such as the Great Depression and
World War II, or the American Revolution. As young adults, surrounded by
unprecedented challenges, they rally around a common cause and struggle
to overcome the obstacles thrown at them. The most recent example is the
"G. I. Generation" who were in their 20's and 30's while the
Second World War was being fought.

-- The Adaptive generation experiences their childhood
in a time of crisis. They grow up in a frightening world in which, as
children, they are fairly helpless, though when they grow up the crisis
is resolved. The most recent example is the "Silent
Generation" who were children during the Second World War, and
experienced young adulthood during the 1950's and early 1960's.

-- The Idealist generation is a generation which has never
experienced a crisis in their younger years. They are raised in a
relaxing climate after a crisis, and these children are treated more
indulgently, so they become idealists. They are often caught up in
religious revivals -- or, in the 1960's and 1970's, a
"consciousness revolution" -- and start to challenge the
social ideals of their parents. The most recent example is the
"Baby Boom" generation who were young adults during the 1960's
and 1970's.

-- The Reactive generation is a generation which also has
never experienced a crisis in their younger years. But they do have to
cope with increasing individualism in society, and an increasingly
uncertain world due to the fact that the idealistic generation which
preceded them has set society adrift in its social moorings. They learn
to protect themselves and become pragmatic and results-focused. The most
recent example is the "Generation X" which experienced young
adulthood in the 1980's and 1990's.

And what’s the next generation after a reactive generation? It’s
another civic generation. This theory is a cyclic theory. What starts
the cycle over again is a social crisis in which society is reorganized
around a new value system. Suddenly civic virtue (based on the newly
formed value system) is more important than individualism. Each
generation is born during a period of about 20 or 25 years, and an
entire cycle takes about 80 to 100 years to complete, with a major
social crisis marking the beginning of the repetition of the cycle. (The
American Civil War crisis was the exception: it was so catastrophic that
it shortened the cycle by almost a generation.)

Strauss and Howe identify several "crisis periods" in American
history: the American Revolution, the Civil War, and the Great
Depression and Second World War. (They go all the way back to 1584!) The
aftermath of these crisis periods saw fundamental social changes:
independence from Great Britain; abolition of slavery; social security;
a dramatic increase in the role of government in the economy, and in the
American presence in the international sphere.

Their theory does not predict when "big events" like wars
or depressions will happen, but how we will react to these
events. The First and Second World Wars both featured catastrophic
European wars in which millions died, and into which the U. S. was
ultimately drawn. But America’s reaction to the First World War and
its reaction to the Second World War were completely different. America
only got in at the very end of the First World War, after much
hesitation, and when it ended America immediately reverted to
isolationism. But in the Second World War, America fought during the
brunt of the war and remained internationally involved for generations
afterwards. In other words, our reaction to a catastrophic
European war is what defined it as a social crisis in which
things would fundamentally change, as opposed to a disaster that we have
to cope with as best we can.

Strauss and Howe are also careful not to draw value judgments as to
the relative merits of individualism versus teamwork, and careful to
point out that crises often have very different endings. Individualism
can manifest itself as crime and drug use; it can also manifest itself
as technological inventiveness and the computer revolution. Teamwork can
mean the Civilian Conservation Corps in the 1930's; it can also mean the
Hitler youth of the same period. The resolution of a crisis can be a
triumph, like America in 1945; or it can mean devastation and disaster,
like Germany in 1945.

Implications for Us

Generations and its companion books offer us several lessons. To
begin with, it offers a useful primer on generations learning to get
along with one another in a common cause. But most critically, these
ideas signify that we are about to enter a crisis era
just like the Second World War, the Civil War, or the American
Revolution. During this crisis period, everything may be changed, just
as the aftermath of the Second World War, the Civil War, and the
American Revolution left society in a very different situation than it
was previously.

Thus the implications for our movement are that a unique
opportunity for dramatic social change is about to unfold. These
crises unfold about every 80 years; 80 years ago, it was 1923. In 1923
we were in the middle of an economic panic, profoundly frustrated with
our international involvement, and in the middle of culture wars over
drugs (prohibition), teaching evolution (the Scopes Trial!), and the
role of women. Sound familiar? We were just a few short years away from
the Great Depression. And lest this be seen as "the-end-is-near"
grandstanding to pump up book sales, it should be pointed out that Generations
was first published in 1991.

Still not convinced? Think about September 11, the unraveling war in
Iraq, the never-ending debates with the fundamentalist Christian right,
the polarization of the country -- these incidents, which have
remarkable parallels to the 1920's, the 1850's, and the late 1760's, are
merely preludes to the social consciousness that we require a
fundamental rethinking of our economy and our way of life.

Reading Generations, The Fourth Turning, or Millennials
Rising should be required for all activists in this or any related
movement. You may not agree with their views on social change; but the
views in this book cannot be ignored. We need to be prepared for the
possibility that a period of social turmoil in which, suddenly,
everything will be up for grabs, is at hand.