Home values along the 11-mile Green Line light rail corridor continued to slide even after the official end of the recession, but average rents have trended upward — a likely reflection of new, high-end apartments constructed in downtown St. Paul and around the University of Minnesota in Minneapolis.

From 2011 to 2013, developers added one apartment, or unit, of affordable housing for every 12 units of market-rate housing, a possible early indication of future trends. Population growth along the light rail continues at a strong clip.

Those are some of the major findings of the Big Picture Project, a coalition of 18 city, county, regional and nonprofit groups from the two cities dedicated to tracking changes along the Green Line, or Central Corridor, over a 10-year period.

The Green Line’s debut is little more than a month away, but housing advocates already are dissecting its effect on housing.

Craig Helmstetter, Senior Research Manager at Wilder Research, which compiled much of the data, said that by investing in more affordable housing, the organization hopes to stabilize neighborhoods along the line and help low-income residents stay in their homes, “making sure development (isn’t) causing flight of any particular group.”

The Big Picture Project, which is spearheaded by the two cities and Twin Cities LISC — for Local Initiatives Support Corporation — is in its third year. Its 2014 Progress Report is the effort’s first-ever summary of housing changes since 2011, with some measures dating back to the height of the recession in 2008.

“I think it’s a positive report. We’re coming out of the Great Recession. There’s a high level of investment, both public and private investment,” said Eric Muschler, program officer with the McKnight Foundation, a project partner. “Obviously, there are ‘watch out’ signs with rent increasing, but rent has been increasing generally because of the low vacancy rate.”

The report is the latest entry in a growing discussion about the impact of light rail on housing and low-income communities. Studies have shown that rents around new light rail stations in Portland and Seattle increased, sometimes dramatically, as land values and real estate development picked up, displacing many minorities and longtime residents.

In anticipation, many advocates have called for an increase in subsidized housing along the 11-mile Green Line, which debuts passenger service between the downtowns of St. Paul and Minneapolis on June 14. Critics of the strategy, including the president of the St. Paul Chapter of the NAACP, have questioned whether too much low-income housing is being concentrated in poor neighborhoods, cementing inequality in place.

Some private landlords, meanwhile, are advocating for a more laissez-faire approachthat would allow the private sector to provide whatever housing the market demands with minimal government subsidy.

It’s too soon to say with confidence whether the light rail will be a magnet for gentrification, according to researchers.

“The data show increasing population and development along the line, but, at least so far, these changes do not appear to be pushing out lower-income households,” said Jane Tigan, a research associate with Wilder Research, in a written statement included with the progress report.

“The short trends that we are tracking are, however, mixed, with rents along the line increasing fairly rapidly even while homeowners saw decreases in their tax-assessed property values,” Tigan said.

The Big Picture Project foresees the cities of St. Paul and Minneapolis on track to add or preserve at least 2,500 units of affordable housing along the Green Line by the year 2020, though project members say that figure isn’t enough to keep up with future demand for housing assistance.

They’ve been advocating for a “reach” goal of adding or preserving 4,500 units, which would require adding 346 units of affordable housing per year for the next seven years up and down the Green Line.

That goal, once considered ambitious, now seems “within reach,” according to the Progress Report. Since 2011, 1,738 affordable units have been created or preserved, with 545 units in the pipeline.

Some estimates indicate the corridor could add 17,000 new housing units of all types over the next 30 years.

The Big Picture Project is funded by the Central Corridor Funders Collaborative, a coalition of foundations invested in the neighborhoods along the Green Line, and co-chaired by St. Paul City Council Member Russ Stark and Minneapolis City Council Member Cam Gordon.

Key findings include:

— For every new subsidized unit on the corridor, 12 market-rate units were added since 2011.

— Compared with Minneapolis and St. Paul in general, a higher share of households along the corridor are “cost-burdened” and putting more than 30 percent of their income toward housing.

— The residential population along the corridor is increasing, including an uptick in Asian and black residents. About 42 percent of the households along the corridor are people of color.

— From the third quarter of 2011 to the third quarter of 2013, rents for a two-bedroom apartment are up about 17 percent throughout Minneapolis and St. Paul on the whole. Some of the highest rent increases are occurring along the corridor (24 percent), but not everywhere or evenly.

Along the Green Line’s St. Paul neighborhoods, a median value two-bedroom apartment rents for $995. That compares with $1,325 in downtown St. Paul or $1,747 along the Minneapolis portion of the line.

— Despite concern about potential property tax increases, home value assessments along the corridor did not go up from 2011 to 2013. In fact, while home values decreased 12 percent in the city of St. Paul during that time, they fell 13 percent along the corridor. Assessments are one of the major components of property taxes.

Dan Hylton, a researcher with Minneapolis-based HousingLink, recently conducted a rent analysis of St. Paul based on fourth-quarter data for each of the past three years and found surprising trends.

“Average rent … is not what I necessarily expected to see,” said Hylton, “with rent increases in the whole of the city outpacing those in Frogtown and Hamline-Midway.”

He said that’s because newer housing units are commanding the highest rents, and much of that is student housing near the University of Minnesota and higher-end downtown apartments.

Heavy light rail construction along University Avenue could have defrayed some rent increases in Frogtown and Hamline-Midway, but with construction over, that could have ended.

“This likely would (have been) a hard time to increase the rents” for older housing stock along the corridor, Helmstetter said.

While it may be too soon to tell whether many long-term residents will reap the benefits of light rail or relocate as a result of tax and rent increases, it is clear that construction has picked up.

On Wednesday, officials are expected to announce a total development figure for more major projects constructed in recent years along the light-rail line or in the pipeline. Previous estimates ran in the range of $1.7 billion.

Frederick Melo was once sued by a reader for $2 million but kept on writing. He came to the Pioneer Press in 2005 and brings a testy East Coast attitude to St. Paul beat reporting. He spent nearly six years covering crime in the Dakota County courts before switching focus to the St. Paul mayor's office, city council, and all things neighborhood-related, from the city's churches to its parks and light rail. A resident of Hamline-Midway, he is married to a Frogtown woman. He Tweets with manic intensity at @FrederickMelo.

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