Turkey at turning point?

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Not so long ago, Turkey was held up as an example of what a secular Muslim country, comfortable with modern life and looking toward the West as a most important ally, could achieve.

How things have changed.

The country's steady drift towards theocratic and authoritarian rule is being highlighted by a series of violent protests targeting Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his Islamist supporters in the Justice and Development Party.

The unrest started when protesters in Istanbul, concerned over plans to turn a small park into a commercial development, clashed with police. Momentum quickly began to build. Soon, half the country's provinces were witnessing protests, fueled by Twitter and other social media. Back in Istanbul, a core of demonstrators established themselves in nearby Taksim Square for the long haul.

Istanbul is the commercial and cultural heart of Turkey, but Erdogan's drive to Islamize the country finds its support in rural areas across the Anatolian peninsula. Many in cosmopolitan Istanbul still favor the secular state that was a central feature of the Republic of Turkey, which rose from the ashes of the Ottoman Empire after World War I.

Historically, Turkey has been an important U.S. ally in this region. However, under Erdogan, the country has become more unpredictable as his government has focused its attentions on appeasing its Islamist base. With three election victories under his belt, Erdogan's confidence has increased substantially, causing critics to claim that he is becoming increasingly autocratic. After 10 year in office, with his popularity among his core supporters still very strong, Erdogan is becoming more assertive in his Islamist beliefs, to the dismay of secular Turks.

Importantly, with the rise of more overtly Islamist governments in the Middle East and North Africa, many Muslims are now looking to Erdogan's Turkey as a model of how to best integrate strict interpretations of the Quran with the formalities of a democratic process. At the same time, many Turks are wrestling with the foundations of their national identity and how to best express their growing concerns in a democracy.

The fact that the Turkish economy has been booming under Erdogan's watch has given him tremendous cover to develop plans that appeal to the many deeply religious Turks who are in favor of expanding the role of religion in their country.

Although Erdogan has simply dismissed the protesters as looters and hooligans, the way forward for Turkey is not immediately clear nor simple. There is a significant divide between rural and urban Turkey today, and Erdogan has been very effective in navigating these conflicting viewpoints to maximum effect.

Class divisions are still very important in contemporary Turkey. Istanbul is a cosmopolitan city, the successor to Constantinople, final seat of the Roman Empire. Life in the vast Anatolian hinterland, however, is quite different from the hurly-burly of a major city. Erdogan has marshaled regional envy to his advantage.

Many secular Turks now feel under attack by Erdogan and his religious supporters. The protests over the redevelopment of a city park, which also includes the building of yet another mosque, has tapped into these frustrations. Perhaps more transparently than elsewhere in the region, Turkey allows us to see the great divergence of opinions and beliefs that rub up against each other in Muslim countries today.

Interestingly, in response to a recently adopted law restricting the sale of alcohol, many demonstrators in Taksim Square have made a point of publicly drinking beer while voicing their complaints about Erdogan's regime.

Despite the friction that his 10 years in office has generated, Erdogan is not a leader on ropes. His hold on power is still firm. His political base still lines up fervently behind him. The impact of these protests in the near term will not be a “Turkish Spring,” which results in Erdogan being driven unceremoniously from office.

Instead, Turkey will continue to struggle with its identity. Is it a secular country, populated largely by Muslims, or a Muslim country, which must make some minimal level of concessions to those who chose to live secularly?

Prime Minister Erdogan clearly has his views on the subject, committed to consolidating power in such a way as to drive the country towards a more religiously-oriented pattern of life. As a sign of his confidence in his own position and prospects, he actually left Turkey with the protests still under way to go on a diplomatic tour of neighboring countries.

The line between confidence and over-confidence, however, is a fine one. The Taksim Square protesters are a clear sign that not all Turks believe in Erdogan's shift away from secularism and toward more explicit Islamic policies.

The question now becomes how his government ultimately responds to these voices of dissent.

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