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What the Leafs have left to play for in the final six games

With the end of the regular season in sight and a firm grasp on 27th place overall, each player has something to aim for in the final two weeks.

Toronto Maple Leafs centre Nazem Kadri (43) itakes part in the pre-game skate prior to the first period of NHL action against the Vancouver Canucks in Vancouver, B.C. on March 14, 2015. (JONATHAN HAYWARD / THE CANADIAN PRESS)

There appears to be two guiding philosophies for the Maple Leafs as they wind down the final six games of their season.

One — don’t worry about losses.

In fact, lose them all if it will improve the team’s chances at landing the first overall pick, which would bring Connor McDavid to Toronto to tee up a rebuild.

Two — draft schmaft (thanks Cliff Fletcher).

Compete as hard as possible and use any positive player showcases as building blocks for next season.

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The NHL draft lottery announcement is scheduled for April 18, and it will touch off probably the most frenzied media pursuit of a junior-aged player since Eric Lindros and Sidney Crosby. McDavid is that good; a generational talent.

So until then, here’s a look at what the Leafs have left to play for:

Nazem Kadri

Kadri has been issued possibly the biggest challenge of his five years in Toronto: take these final games and prove yourself as a team leader. Kadri has been asked to deliver a verdict on that leadership question not only by his play on the ice, but also through his overall behaviour. Could that be the lead up to consideration for the captaincy or alternate captaincy, depending on which way the Leafs go with their “C” for next season? Either way, Kadri has a significant future in Toronto, or another slippery slope toward trade bait talk he’s heard for the past two years.

Spoilers

As the Senators found out Saturday, Toronto indeed has enough compete level to slam a thorn into the side of a club fighting for the playoffs. At least two of the final six games are against teams in must-win situations: Boston and Ottawa.

The final game of the year, against Montreal, could also have an affect on Montreal’s home-ice advantage throughout the Eastern Conference playoffs, since they’re fighting with the Rangers and Tampa Bay for first overall bragging rights.

Leafs coach Peter Horachek has stressed all along that he and the organization expect the players to give everything they have against these teams fighting for the post-season. And that maps over onto the other three games against Tampa Bay, Buffalo and Columbus. That Buffalo game is a road game April 1, and will certainly have a McDavid theme to it.

Overall record

Right now, the Leafs sport a 28-42-6 record; if they finish below 30 wins, it will mark the fewest wins by the franchise in a full regular season since 1990-91. In addition, Toronto has 62 points and are on pace to finish second-last in the Eastern Conference, and 27th overall in the league.

It looks like Buffalo will finish last overall and have the best odds to land the first pick in the lottery. Tanking is a highly debated and contested term, but should the Leafs lose all six remaining games, they could drop one more spot into 28th overall; Edmonton sits five points behind the Leafs in 28th now, but could vault over the Leafs if they continue with the solid hockey they’ve been playing the past week or so. At 27th overall, the Leafs have a 9.5 per cent shot at the first overall pick; at 28th, their odds go up to 11 per cent.

Playing for pride

Here’s a look at every player on the roster and what he’s playing for over the final six games:

Phil Kessel: Repair his awful plus-minus and glaring War on Ice stats showing massive differential in chances for versus chances for opposition while on the ice; entering Saturday’s game, Kessel had been on the ice for 30 goals against since Jan. 1 and only seven for; his assists Saturday marked his first even-strength assist in 38 games. He’s almost a certainty to finish below 30 goals for the first time in his career, unless he scores at least a goal in every one of the remaining six games. Kessel’s better than that; whether he remains a Leaf or is dealt away, he has a lot to make up for.

Tyler Bozak: He had established himself as a core player here, but that’s eroded now to the point where he’s considered a part of the problem and not the solution. He’s also better than that, and he needs to show it.

James van Riemsdyk: He needs to get his mojo back as a big winger who can take D outside and cut to the net, and also an effective down low player. He’s a big part of the rebuild.

Nazem Kadri: Is he a leader? That’s up to him.

Joffrey Lupul: Hard to say, and harder to believe, but his fate may be sealed as a goner if another NHL team is interested in taking on his contract.

Dion Phaneuf: Future is a much-debated topic — but he’s been a solid leader of late. That’s a too little, too late scenario, but he’s fighting and hammering foes with his customary huge open-ice hits — keep that up and see where the cards fall in the off season.

Morgan Rielly-Jake Gardiner: Power play leaders and second defensive pairing down the stretch, all good developments for the two young defenceman. Rielly had 26 minutes against Ottawa on Saturday and is showing he will be a leader through the coming rebuild.

Eric Brewer: Classy veteran should have another year in the NHL, either here or elsewhere.

David Booth: Hardest worker most nights, and that will pay off in a contract here or somewhere else — he’s earning it now and setting a good example to the younger players.

Leo Komarov: Can’t complain about what he’s shown as the team plays out the string; maybe a goal or two and setting a further example with his hitting and penalty kill smarts.

Zach Sill: He’s about the only Leaf who can handle the toughest customers in the league. He is angling himself into a fourth-line job for next season.

Sam Carrick: Coach’s like his work ethic and attempts to establish himself physically. He’s fighting for a fourth-line centre job for next season.

Joakim Lindstrom, Tim Erixon: Playing for a contract.

Casey Bailey: Has a future here, but likely through the Marlies first.

TJ Brennan: Sent back to the Marlies to help them fight for a playoff spot. As always, he’s playing for an NHL job next season.

Andrew MacWilliam: Has done well with his first, long look at the NHL level. He’s back with the Marlies, but has worked his way into top seven consideration for next year.

Trevor Smith: Has a real dogfight now for the fourth-line pivot job, but he’s done quite well this season and has earned “inside track” status for next year.

Peter Holland: Comes back from injury this week and keeps up his fight for that third- or fourth-line centre job next season.

Brandon Kozun: Needs to score, even in the tiny ice time minutes he gets. One of several players dog fighting for jobs.

Richard Panik: Coaching staff love his skill level and hockey smarts, but want him to limit his turnovers — that’s his work detail for the rest of this season.

Roman Polak, Stephane Robidas: Both are on the books for $3-million plus next season; they’re injured now and out of the picture until next September, unless they factor into an off-season trade.

Jonathan Bernier: Has to shore up his glove hand, which was excellent earlier this season, but has weakened noticeably in March. He’s been pulled three times this month, and he needs to have a monster game before the season is done.

James Reimer: Always a battler, and he has to keep that up.

Contracts

RFA’s: Kadri, Panik, Kozun, Carrick, Erixon, Bernier, MacWilliam

UFA’s: Booth, Smith, Brewer, Sill

Kadri and Bernier are pivotal priorities over the summer.

What to expect

The Leafs should win at least two of their six remaining games, depending on goaltending. They have played a much tighter defensive game their past four contests, and will be a handful for any team if they continue with that. A 27th-place finish seems likely.

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