A system for ranking teams based only one wins and losses and strength of schedule. See BPR for an explanation.

EPA (Expected Points Added)

Expected points are the points a team can "expect" to score based on the distance to the end zone and down and distance needed for a first down, with an adjustment for the amount of time remaining in some situations. Expected points for every situation is estimated using seven years of historical data. The expected points considers both the average points the offense scores in each scenario and the average number of points the other team scores on their ensuing possession. The Expected Points Added is the change in expected points before and after a play.

EP3 (Effective Points Per Possession)

Effective Points Per Possession is based on the same logic as the EPA, except it focuses on the expected points added at the beginning and end of an offensive drive. In other words, the EP3 for a single drive is equal to the sum of the expected points added for every offensive play in a drive (EP3 does not include punts and field goal attempts). We can also think of the EP3 as points scored+expected points from a field goal+the value of field position change on the opponent's next possession.

Adjusted for Competition

We attempt to adjust some statistics to compensate for differences in strength of schedule. While the exact approach varies some from stat to stat the basic concept is the same. We use an algorithm to estimate scores for all teams on both sides of the ball (e.g., offense and defense) that best predict real results. For example, we give every team an offensive and defensive yards per carry score. Subtracting the offensive score from the defensive score for two opposing teams will estimate the yards per carry if the two teams were to play. Generally, the defensive scores average to zero while offensive scores average to the national average, e.g., yards per carry, so we call the offensive score "adjusted for competition" and roughly reflects what the team would do against average competition

Impact

see Adjusted for Competition. Impact scores are generally used to evaluate defenses. The value roughly reflects how much better or worse a team can expect to do against this opponent than against the average opponent.

Standardized completion % for
down and distance. Completion % by down and distance are weighted by
the national average of pass plays by down and distance.

Pass <=0

Percent of pass plays that are negative or no gain

Pass >=10

Percent of pass plays that gain 10 or more yards

Pass >=25

Percent of pass plays that gain 25 or more yards

10 to 0

Ratio of Pass >=10 to Pass<=0

%Sacks

Ratio of sacks to pass plays

Bad INTs

Interceptions on 1st or 2nd down
early before the last minute of the half

Includes the top 240 players by carries

YPC1stD

Yards per carry on 1st down

CPCs

Conversions (1st down/TD) per
carry in short yardage situations - the team 3 or fewer yards for a 1st
down or touchdown

%Team Run

Player's carries as a percent of team's carries

%Team RunS

Player's carries as a percent of team's carries in short
yardage situations

Run <=0

Percent of running plays that
are negative or no gain

Run >=10

Percent of running plays that
gain 10 or more yards

Run >=25

Percent of running plays that gain 25 or more yards

10 to 0

Ratio of Run >=10 to Run <=0

Includes the top 300 players by targets

Conv/T 3rd

Conversions per target on 3rd Downs

Conv/T PZ

Touchdowns per target inside the 10 yardline

%Team PZ

Percent of team's targets inside the 10 yardline

Rec <=0

Percent of targets that go for negative yards or no net gain

Rec >=10

Percent of targets that go for 10+ yards

Rec >=25

Percent of targets that go for 25+ yards

10 to 0

Ratio of Rec>=0 to Rec<=0

Includes the top 300 players by targets

xxxx

xxxx

...

Includes players with a significant number of attempts

NEPA

"Net Expected Points Added": (expected points after play - expected points before play)-(opponent's expected points after play - opponent's expected points before play). Uses the expected points for the current possession and the opponent's next possession based on down, distance and spot

NEPA/PP

Average NEPA per play

Max/Min

Single game high and low

Includes players with a significant number of attempts

NEPA

"Net Expected Points Added": (expected points after play - expected points before play)-(opponent's expected points after play - opponent's expected points before play). Uses the expected points for the current possession and the opponent's next possession based on down, distance and spot

NEPA/PP

Average NEPA per play

Max/Min

Single game high and low

Adjusted

Reports the per game EPA adjusted for the strength of schedule.

Defensive Possession Stats

Points/Poss

Offensive points per possession

EP3

Effective Points per Possession

EP3+

Effective Points per Possession impact

Plays/Poss

Plays per possession

Yards/Poss

Yards per possession

Start Spot

Average starting field position

Time of Poss

Average time of possession (in seconds)

TD/Poss

Touchdowns per possession

TO/Poss

Turnovers per possession

FGA/Poss

Attempted field goals per possession

%RZ

Red zone trips per possession

Points/RZ

Average points per red zone trip. Field Goals are included using expected points, not actual points.

TD/RZ

Touchdowns per red zone trip

FGA/RZ

Field goal attempt per red zone trip

Downs/RZ

Turnover on downs per red zone trip

Defensive Play-by-Play Stats

EPA/Pass

Expected Points Added per pass attempt

EPA/Rush

Expected Points Added per rush attempt

EPA/Pass+

Expected Points Added per pass attempt impact

EPA/Rush+

Expected Points Added per rush attempt impact

Yards/Pass

Yards per pass

Yards/Rush

Yards per rush

Yards/Pass+

Yards per pass impact

Yards/Rush+

Yards per rush impact

Exp/Pass

Explosive plays (25+ yards) per pass

Exp/Rush

Explosive plays (25+ yards) per rush

Exp/Pass+

Explosive plays (25+ yards) per pass impact

Exp/Rush+

Explosive plays (25+ yards) per rush impact

Comp%

Completion percentage

Comp%+

Completion percentage impact

Yards/Comp

Yards per completion

Sack/Pass

Sacks per pass

Sack/Pass+

Sacks per pass impact

Sack/Pass*

Sacks per pass on passing downs

INT/Pass

Interceptions per pass

Neg/Rush

Negative plays (<=0) per rush

Neg/Run+

Negative plays (<=0) per rush impact

Run Short

% Runs in short yardage situations

Convert%

3rd/4th down conversions

Conv%*

3rd/4th down conversions versus average by distance

Conv%+

3rd/4th down conversions versus average by distance impact

Offensive Play-by-Play Stats

Plays

Number of offensive plays

%Pass

Percent pass plays

EPA/Pass

Expected Points Added per pass attempt

EPA/Rush

Expected Points Added per rush attempt

EPA/Pass+

Expected Points Added per pass attempt adjusted for competition

EPA/Rush+

Expected Points Added per rush attempt adjusted for competition

Yards/Pass

Yards per pass

Yards/Rush

Yards per rush

Yards/Pass+

Yards per pass adjusted for competition

Yards/Rush+

Yards per rush adjusted for competition

Exp Pass

Explosive plays (25+ yards) per pass

Exp Run

Explosive plays (25+ yards) per rush

Exp Pass+

Explosive plays (25+ yards) per pass adjusted for competition

Exp Run+

Explosive plays (25+ yards) per rush adjusted for competition

Comp%

Completion percentage

Comp%+

Completion percentage adjusted for competition

Sack/Pass

Sacks per pass

Sack/Pass+

Sacks per pass adjusted for competition

Sack/Pass*

Sacks per pass on passing downs

Int/Pass

Interceptions per pass

Neg/Run

Negative plays (<=0) per rush

Neg/Run+

Negative plays (<=0) per rush adjusted for competition

Run Short

% Runs in short yardage situations

Convert%

3rd/4th down conversions

Conv%*

3rd/4th down conversions versus average by distance

Conv%+

3rd/4th down conversions versus average by distance adjusted for competition

Offensive Possession Stats

Points/Poss

Offensive points per possession

EP3

Effective Points per Possession

EP3+

Effective Points per Possession adjusted for competition

Plays/Poss

Plays per possession

Yards/Poss

Yards per possession

Start Spot

Average starting field position

Time of Poss

Average time of possession (in seconds)

TD/Poss

Touchdowns per possession

TO/Poss

Turnovers per possession

FGA/Poss

Attempted field goals per possession

Poss/Game

Possessions per game

%RZ

Red zone trips per possession

Points/RZ

Average points per red zone trip. Field Goals are included using expected points, not actual points.

TD/RZ

Touchdowns per red zone trip

FGA/RZ

Field goal attempt per red zone trip

Downs/RZ

Turnover on downs per red zone trip

PPP

Points per Possession

aPPP

Points per Possession allowed

PPE

Points per Exchange (PPP-aPPP)

EP3+

Expected Points per Possession

aEP3+

Expected Points per Possession allowed

EP2E+

Expected Points per Exchange

EPA/Pass+

Expected Points Added per Pass

EPA/Rush+

Expected Points Added per Rush

aEPA/Pass+

Expected Points Allowed per Pass

aEPA/Rush+

Expected Points Allowed per Rush

Exp/Pass

Explosive Plays per Pass

Exp/Rush

Explosive Plays per Rush

aExp/Pass

Explosive Plays per Pass allowed

aExp/Rush

Explosive Plays per Rush allowed

BPR

A method for ranking conferences based only on their wins and losses and the strength of schedule. See BPR for an explanation.

Power

A composite measure that is the best predictor of future game outcomes, averaged across all teams in the conference

P-Top

The power ranking of the top teams in the conference

P-Mid

The power ranking of the middling teams in the conference

P-Bot

The power ranking of the worst teams in the conference

SOS-Und

Strength of Schedule - Undefeated. Focuses on the difficulty of going undefeated, averaged across teams in the conference

SOS-BE

Strength of Schedule - Bowl Eligible. Focuses on the difficulty of becoming bowl eligible, averaged across teams in the conference

Hybrid

A composite measure that quantifies human polls, applied to converences

Player Game LogUse the yellow, red and green cells to filter values. Yellow cells filter for exact matches, green cells for greater values and red cells for lesser values. By default, the table is filtered to only the top 200 defense-independent performances (oEPA). The table includes the 5,000 most important performances (positive and negative) by EPA.

EPA

Expected points added (see glossary)

oEPA

Defense-independent performance

Team Game LogUse the yellow, red and green cells to filter values. Yellow cells filter for exact matches, green cells for greater values and red cells for lesser values.

Sunday, November 4, 2012

The SEC West gets Johnny Footballed, a win is a win is a loss, mere mortals, and the battle for Louisiana's soul

218, 290, 134, 352, 361
716, 481, 410, 671, 693Texas A&M
"If we didn't think it could work, we wouldn't run it." So said Kevin Sumlin about the Aggie's up-tempo, not boring offense in the SEC. In five games against SEC West opponents, Texas A&M has been held under 670 yards twice, against Ole Miss and LSU. In those two games they still managed over 400 yards despite losing 6 and 5 possessions to turnovers. Only LSU held A&M under 200 yards rushing. The Aggies have averaged 3.19 points per possession in possessions that were not cut short by the end of the half; they have averaged 4 points per possession when not stopped by turnovers.

What does it all mean? When the Aggies avoid turnovers they are as good as anyone in the country (e.g., Alabama). Good offenses avoid turnovers and good defenses create turnovers, but the timing of turnovers is much more random than other events in football (e.g., long pass plays). In other words, this next weekend the football gods will be playing dice with the college football universe.Louisiana Tech
Texas A&M has looked vulnerable in four games this season. They lost their opener with a freshman quarterback and new coaching staff to Florida by 3. They turned it over five times against LSU and lost by 5 points. They came from behind to beat Ole Miss despite six turnovers. And they beat Louisiana Tech by 2. Despite facing six SEC opponents, two top ten teams, three recent national champions, etc., the most impressive performance against Texas A&M this season, in my mind, came from Sonny Dykes and company. Louisiana Tech is 8-1. Only once this season have the Bulldogs been held under 44 points. Patton is a legitimate player at any level. But ultimately this team will stay well beneath the national radar, which is too bad because they were 2 points short of making some real noise.

Notre Dame
Ultimately, when it comes to choosing a team to play for the national championship, I believe that we should evaluate teams based on wins, losses and strength of schedule. It doesn't matter how a team wins but that they do win. There is one exception to this rule: the team must actually WIN the game. Notre Dame lost to Pitt. Pitt was faced with a single play to win the game and a very high probability of success. The game was essentially out of Notre Dame's hands, and they had lost. It is important that Pitt failed to convert, but it is also important that PITT, not Notre Dame, decided the outcome of this game. In my mind, Notre Dame has now officially suffered half a loss, and that blemish drops them below the other (legitimate) undefeated teams.

Alabama, Oregon and Kansas State
The best thing West Virginia did this season was allow Baylor to score 63 points. This 1) allowed them to keep scoring against one of the nation's worst defenses and 2) focused the national spotlight on the game and Geno Smith's gaudy numbers. Down the road, though, an inability to tackle caught up with the Mountaineers. Oregon, you've been warned. But at least Oregon's offense was running on all cylinders.

CFBTN projected Kansas State to a 45-31 win before the game, but somehow the Wildcat's performance was still disappointing (probably because Oregon was busy racking up 62). Then again, Kansas State was probably on pace to more than 62 until Klein went down. And Alabama pulled off an upset in Baton Rouge last night. Sure they were favored. Sure they are undefeated. Sure they are #1 in the country. But LSU was the better team. My gut tells me the football gods are going to correct this oversight next weekend.

The Atlantic Coast Conference
Maryland played yesterday with a linebacker at quarterback. Turns out Randy Edsall didn't have the foresight to keep a half dozen full-time quarterbacks on scholarship. But Maryland lost because they couldn't stop Georgia Tech from running up and down the field. NC State lost because they allowed a hopeless Virginia offense to score 33 while they scored only 6. Miami took the Coastal lead by beating Virginia Tech, which would make perfect sense if both teams were good, but they aren't; Duke could gain control of its own fate in the Coastal Division, despite allowing over 100 points in the last two games, if only North Carolina were to lose to Maryland, Virginia, or Georgia Tech, but there is only a 45% chance of that happening You gotta love the ACC . . . as long as no one forces you to actually watch it.

Football in Louisiana
Tulane has now scored 55 and 47 in consecutive games, this after it took them half a season (6 games) to score 47 total points. Unfortunately they allowed Rice to score more than 47 in one game as well. And, having already discussed the other three teams in the state of Louisiana, it seems only fitting to close with the LaLaLaMo. ULM was 6-2 with a win against Arkansas and an overtime loss to Auburn (A&M beat those two by a combined 121-31, but only beat LaTech by 2), but was overwhelmed by the Ragin' Cajuns on Saturday. Louisiana will have four bowl eligible teams and the best kicker in the country. Yeah Louisiana!