Pac-10 football: Five reasons Stanford beats Oregon

Admittedly, I’m not quite as convinced of a Stanford victory as I was last year, which explains why there are only five reasons instead of 10.

But the bottom line is that Stanford dominated the ’09 game (51-42) and I don’t think much has changed.

Yes, this one is in Autzen, which may make a difference. No, Toby Gerhart isn’t around to torment the Ducks (223 yards, 3 TDs last year). And no, Oregon isn’t coming off an emotional victory over USC, Stanford’s not coming off a bye, and the Cardinal’s isn’t playing on soft, slow grass.

But the basics remain the same:

Oregon is not built to stop Stanford, and Stanford is built to overpower Oregon.

I don’t expect Stanford to control the game the way it did last year. But I expect Stanford to control the fourth quarter and leave Autzen Stadium as the early Rose Bowl frontrunner.

(Remember: In addition to the beat-down Stanford administered last November, it was six seconds away from winning in Eugene two years ago.)

Final score: Stanford 38, Oregon 34 … and here are five reasons why.

No. 5: Belief. Stanford won’t be intimidated, rattled, whatever, by the Autzen atmosphere. The noise can be an issue in regards to communication at the line of scrimmage, but Andrew Luck knows what he’s doing and, really, how much communicating is necessary when you’re running the ball down somebody’s throat every play.

No. 4. The blueprints. Stanford defensive coordinator Vic Fangio has plenty of premium material from which to build his gameplan — not only ASU’s defensive effort against the Ducks last week (Oregon scored just four offensive touchdowns) but also the schemes Fangio put in place for the option/spread attacks used by UCLA and Wake Forest. As ASU defensive coordinator Craig Bray told me earlier this week: “Everything they’ve worked against will help them.”

No. 3. The quarterbacks. Stanford has the better player at the most important position. The guess here is that Luck regroups from the first two-INT game of his career and plays well — very, very well. The key will be accuracy, hitting short- and middle-distance passes to keep drives alive, but don’t be surprised if Stanford goes downfield early to soften the hard-charging Duck defense the way it did on the opening possession last year in Corvallis (although this time Chris Owusu catches the ball). And look for Luck to tuck-and-run to counter Oregon’s pass rush. He can make defenders miss in the open field and knows exactly where that first-down stick is.

No. 2. The defense. Oregon’s is better than it wasa year ago, but Stanford’s is much better thanks to a change in coordinators and schemes and a shuffling of some personnel. Granted, the injury to safety Michael Thomas — the guess here is that he doesn’t play because of a leg injury suffered at Notre Dame — doesn’t help matters. And there’s no question that Oregon’s offense is by far the best Stanford has faced, the first one capable of exploiting Stanford’s vulnerability (perimeter speed). But Stanford doesn’t have to stop the Ducks every time they have the ball, only a few times. And it will be tough enough and well-prepared enough … look for Stanford to make Darron Thomas win the game with his arm … to do that.

No. 1. The power game. Stanford will use the same approach it has the past two years, when it rushed for 441 combined yards: Using its talented OL, multiple-TE sets and FB Owen Marecic, the Cardinal will pound Oregon … and pound Oregon … churning out first down after first down … mixing play-action passes … pounding Oregon … keeping LaMichael James off the field. Stanford held the ball for 37 minutes last year and Oregon still scored 41 points. But the longer Stanford has the ball, the more the Duck defense wears down, until it becomes incapable of stopping the power game. And the longer Stanford has the ball, the less margin for error Oregon has offensively — not a good spot for Thomas, a first-year starter, in a game of this magnitude — especially in the fourth quarter.

Jon Wilner

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John,
Good article. I remember reading your same article from last year and, as a Duck fan, getting a bad feeling in my stomach. You made lot’s of scary points about how the game would turn out and you were mostly right on the money.
I think the 5 reasons you brought up this time around are similarly insightful, except I’m talking about the five reasons you listed in the 3rd paragraph.
The fifth most important reason Oregon has the advantage this year is no Gerhart. He was a beast, but the offensive line will still be able to open up running room for this years committee of rbs too.
Fourth, is crowd noise. Has to be somewhat of a factor, but has become an overrated advantage, used by the fans and experts. Especially against this disciplined Cardinal team.
Third, Stanford not only had two weeks to prepare ’09, but also had to travel back east before this year’s game. That’s a pretty big difference from last year.
Second, Oregon’s emotional letdown after a big win over USC. History shows that this is a huge factor when you look at upsets in college football. You could combine that with the revenge factor and say the Ducks are in a completely different place this year from a motivational standpoint.
I think, by far, the most important factor to the game on Saturday is the turf. I hadn’t thought about that until you brought it up in this article, but after reading it I got a really good feeling about the outcome of the game.
From what I can tell Stanford has yet to play on artificial turf this year. This Saturday probably isn’t a good time to start getting a feel for it.
No other writers (that I have read this week) seemed to have considered that as a major factor. I’m guessing Vegas has. That has to be why Oregon is favored by a touchdown, despite struggling against teams built like Stanford.
Sorry for the long post. I just got fired up when I read that part about the turf. In the same way that you made me real nervous prior to last year’s game, you have made me very confident about this year’s game.
Should be a great one. Hopefully next year we play the rubber match on a neutral field in the inaugural Pac-12 championship game.
Buenos suerte arboles.

UO2000

@CardinalGlory #84 — Hilarious! Fortunately, I’m a more of a Windows & Dell guy. The QB who shall never be mentioned again stole a Mac Book Pro.

@elPalo-I’m not here to get into a mano y mano debate between the academic merits of both schools and the prowess of its athlete-students. Oregon is a Tier 1 AAU university, but it will never be Stanford. If I were Lindsay Yamasaki and Owen Marecic, I’d leave Oregon’s higher education system for Stanford as well. Stanford, Duke, Vanderbilt, Northwestern, and the service academies are in a league of their own and if a young adult is qualified and capable to academically and athletically succeed at the aforementioned, then I’m all for it.

@Typical Oregon Fan-I agree to a certain extent. If you go over to OregonLive.com, there is a constant running pitched-battle between juvenile OSU and UO fans. This blog is more civil. I’m sure most of the Oregon fans here remember the pre-1989 era Oregon football program’s mediocrity. Not speaking for the rest of the alumni base, but you’re not going to see me flaming and trolling on another opponent’s blog. I didn’t hang around here prior to last year’s game. However, Wilner’s site is usually linked to DuckSportsNews.com, OregonLive.com, and the Eugene Register-Guard, so the trolls follow. Legitimate Oregon fans do their best to stamp out the trolls because it’s embarrassing and paints us all in a negative light, especially in respect to the rest of the conference fan bases.

StanTheMan

I think it comes down to TOP because if the Oregon defense sees too much of Stanford’s overpowering O-line/TEs, they are gonna be on their heels come the fourth quarter. By contrast, if Oregon is even or leads in TOP, it means that Stanford’s defensive front 7 isn’t controlling the running game and that bodes well for the Ducks.

Regardless, I think it’s gonna be a great game, and I’m not going to bother scrolling up but whoever said they’re happy that this is even a discussion after the past decade of Stanford football is spot on. Now the team needs to go out and justify the discussion.

I’m sticking by my prediction: Stanford 35, Oregon 27. Back & forth until 5-10 mins left when Stanford’s dominance on both lines shows its impact.

Oh Stan, so naive. If there are any sure things about Saturday’s game, it’s that Oregon will not crack 25 minutes in TOP, and the TOP number will be completely irrelevant to the game’s outcome.

Also, when have you seen Oregon wear down? The Ducks are the deepest team – and the best conditioned – in the league. If Stanford wins this game, it is because Oregon came out flat in the first half, not because Stanford pulled away late.

FarmSkeptic

@GB! – sure, as though you won’t reserve the right to mock JW the rest of the season even Stanford pulls off the upset…or are you actually going to put your money (ie, right to criticize JW) where your mouth is?

elPalo

@Drivethruduck– Brian Kelly also said that he didn’t care about TOP. The Bearcats were one of the worst in TOP in the FBS last year. However, he realized that TOP was a factor in the Stanford v. ND game. Stanford runs the ball, controls the tempo, and eats time off the clock. The last thing Stanford wants to do is allow a fast moving spread type offense to play their style of game. I am sure that Chip Kelly would rather have Stanford speed up their play rather than wait 8 mins to get the ball back. Think abou it: it limits the number of times that the Ducks can get their hands on the ball. If the Ducks go 3 and out as many times as they did last week, their chances to score will be really limited.

FarmSkeptic

I also like how Oregon fans feel comfortable tossing out Stanford’s early season performance by saying we’ve played weak competition. The reality is that Sagarin rates Stanford schedule as 54th and Oregon’s 90th. So whose stats are inflated based on competition? Seems that Saturday will be the first test for BOTH teams.

DriveThruDuck

@elpalo “If the Ducks go 3 and out as many times as they did last week, their chances to score will be really limited.”

Thanks, Capt. Obvious.

Trust me, I’m aware that the best way to slow the Ducks down is with long, sustained drives. But to claim that TOP will be a tell-tale sign of how the game goes is ignorant. Whether the Ducks play well or don’t, their TOP will be between 16-25 minutes. TOP is not tied to how well Oregon plays, at all.

StanTheMan: “By contrast, if Oregon is even or leads in TOP, it means that Stanford’s defensive front 7 isn’t controlling the running game and that bodes well for the Ducks.”

DTD may be the naive one. I like Stanford’s chances if they can control the line of scrimmage, dictate style of play and decisively control the Time of Possession.

As for the best conditioned team in America – all of that and $3.50 will by you coffee at Starbucks. There were quite a few Oregon D-Linemen that looked winded and a bit bruised last year when Gearhart ran for 223 yards.

So many of you seem to have forgotten that game. As a public service reminder here’s what your D-Line looked like last year…..

I should have expanded on my point. TOP is usually an indicator of how things went. For Stanford, TOP is a goal.

DriveThruDuck

Stanford will almost assuredly reach whatever time of possession goal they have set. That doesn’t mean they will win the game.

The situation is extremely different than it was a year ago. Oregon is not coming off a huge win and Stanford is not coming off a bye.

As far as I’m concerned, throw away whatever stats these two teams have accumulated this season. It’s not going to tell you a whole lot anyway, and the stats are fairly even.

Whoever makes more plays in special teams and wins the turnover battle will take this game. I’ll take Oregon’s special teams and turnover margin over anyone else’s in the nation, and so I’ll take Oregon in this game, but close.

37-31, Ducks.

Donald Q Duck

We’re going to run up the score on you guys and rub your prissy noses in it. We’ll be waiting with chainsaws to chew the “Tree” into sawdust and send it home in hurt bags.

Basically, Stanford has an artificial turf field to practice on. However, I do think the field and the Autzen noise give Oregon very good advantages that you really can’t deal with in practice.

Bored

i think Stanford shows up and surprises the overly confident Autzen crowd.

Go Bears!
(the first weekend I won’t have nightmares of a Riley int/pick 6… phew!)

Go Bears!

My opinion of Stanford has not changed since the start of the season:

1) Stanford has not been tested yet and I completely expected them to win all of their first four games.

2) They have played well enough for them to have the inside track on the Gator Bowl at this point in the season.

3) The next 2 weeks are basically the whole season for Stanford in a nutshell, it’s a huge test and our first chance to see what they’re made of.

4) If they beat both Oregon and USC I will gladly install them as the odds on favorite to go to the Rose Bowl.

5) If they lose both then they’re reeling and doing a lot of soul searching.

6) If they win one and lose one then my opinion of them doesn’t change, they’re still Gator Bowl material, ceterus paribus.

7) I posted right after the Colorado blowout that Kevin Riley is not the answer, so yeah I agree, he’s not the answer. But the Bears are still in the muddled middle with Arizona, USC, Oregon State, Arizona State and Washington. None of those teams have really shown me that they’re better than Cal.

8) And yes, I do reserve the right to mock JW because even Stanford supporters have to agree, he’s the biggest homer on the planet. If we agree that this is a biased personal blog and his opinions are not unlike some pimple faced 18 year old freshman sitting in front of his dorm room computer spouting out nonsense then that’s fine. But let’s not mistake this for real journalism. Please.

Leftcoast

GB – We must have very, very different definitions of the word, “Homer”.

Telrod

Leftcoast—Pretty puny pickings compared to last year huh? The Quax are much cagier, more mature(?), not easily decoyed at all. Not one tiny peep out of Sweet Home Duck. The post is half as high and not a single keeper. They’re definitely wise to hubris—not a good sign.

elPalo

Losing is the antidote to hubris. Something both sides should keep in mind.

Leftcoast

You’re right Telrod. Their over-the-top comments last year were flying across the blogosphere, giving me plenty to skewer them with the next day. Bushels of comments, really. By comparison this year’s juicy posts would barely fill a pencil case. But I bet we could still find a few keepers!

Stanford will have their hands full tomorrow. The Ducks are for real and I’m sure Stanford will need to weather a ferocious start of the game. If we’re still standing after the first quarter we’ve got a good chance of making it interesting and I like Stanford as the game wears on. If we don’t weather the first quarter it could be a long, long afternoon in Duckland. (And a miserable next week on this Blog – I’m sure we’ll see some true Donalds should Stanford lose!)

StoneCOLD

How can you say Oregon’s defense is better than it was a year ago but Stanford’s is better when Oregon had the best defense in the Pac-10 last year?

You are the biggest homer writer in the Pac-10.

StoneCOLD

Batch

mike

i think he has some points…remember what osu did to oregon in the rose bowl with a better defense, power game and quarterback? oregon was built to win the pac-10 but can’t play with good (read: top 10, not tennessee) teams from other conferences..and stanford reminds me more of a big ten team than a pac 10 team

elPalo

I’m going to be way off on my over/under. The most blogs last year came just before the game. Guess the Duckers are out at Autzen and tailgating.

Just read the NYT article about the speed of Oregon’s offense. If the Stanford D can play the same high-level game that they have for the past 4 weeks, they should be able to keep up. I’m hoping that Luck has a real breakout day– that would make the difference in a Stanford win. In any case, may both sides have an injury free game, play their best and let talent decide the victor.

Kevin

Less than two hours…. Getting anxious

FarmSkeptic

elPalo – a loss (or even a win) would be hard to stomach with any significant injuries.

I know everyone’s talking about how losing Thomas would be a big deal, but I’m more concerned about Whalen. He’s such a fantastic posession receiver. When Luck needs an outlet, he always seems to be johnny on the spot. it sounds like he’s warming up, but with a big wrap on his arm. we shall see.

18 minutes…

tyler

bahahaha you failed with that prediction ^^^^

PintailDrake

How about those Ducks?! Hahahahahahahahahahahahahahah

Mike in PDX

If there ever was a come to Jesus moment for Wilner….

Tool

As a blowhard, Harbaugh’s pompous words must have tasted bitter as he swallowed them tonight. He will have to retreat to his golden throne, sit in contemplation as “The Thinker” and come up with some new spray for the “Blue Collar” masses at Stanford. I have just two words, Jimbo: GO DUCKS!!!!

cardduck

Pretty quiet on this board now that the game is over. I was at the game with both my green and red coats (Oregon resident who graduated from Stanford). Exciting game that looked like it would end up 70-65 after the first half but Stanford really wore down in the second half and Thomas and James were amazing. Seemed like Harbaugh moved away from his effective short passing game and tried to go long too much with mixed results. Speed kills and in this game speed on offense and defense overcame power. Stanford was getting so tired on one drive in the second half that Stanford’s number 44 faked an injury to stop play. ASU and Tennesse did the same thing. It is hard to prepare for a full game of Oregon’s up tempo offense which is why Oregon has dominated the second half in all of its games.

pDuck

This is one to savor. Sorry, out of Duck, how about roast Luck with wanton sweet & sour?

El Pato Loco

Let’s see….

Stanford is built to over power Oregon and Oregon is not built to stop Stanford. Wrong. Zero Stanford points in 2nd half.

The blueprints to stop Oregon. Wrong. Unless you think 52 points and 626 yards is considered stopping.

Stanford has the better QB. Luck is great. Thomas came up big.

Stanford will make Thomas beat them. They did and Thomas did.

Stanford’s power game. Didn’t show up in the 2nd.

Jim

Might as well change your name to Jon Dumbass, dumbass. See, if you had assembled your poll as thought it reflected the actual performances of teams so far this year, instead of how you hoped teams would perform, you wouldn’t have to deal with getting embarrassed when your dumbassery turns out to be just that- dumbassery.

Kelsey

That’s a lot of talk for a team that just bumped to number 16 … Go Ducks

Charles Oliver

Would you please email me your voting for Sat games. Thank you

duncan

at least you were consistent in your five reasons for a Stanford win over Oregon – they were all wrong.

Oregon threw a shutout in the second half simply because they were a better conditioned team. Cardinal just ran out of gas on both sides of the ball.

James Norman

Spot on Jon 😉

Ducked-Up

What a game . . .

You can bet Duck nation is thrilled, but really, this Stanford team is very good.

Andrew Luck is the real deal, and it looks like he is going to be all-Pro NFL for sure.

I was amazed at Stanford’s size, and if they hadn’t lost to Oregon I would still expect them to contend for the Roses as it ought never be expected to get out of the Pac undefeated.

For those with eyes on Oregon’s history you really could see that because he first ‘showed up’ three years ago, when as a freshman he came off the bench and almost erased a 28 point deficit against Boise. What we’ve seen prior to this game this year is his other side, playing conservatively, within his game. A QB that can play ‘both ways’ within our offense is the ideal, not to conservative, but not a yahoo either.

I must say I’m at a loss to account for the differential once the Cardinal was up 21-3, because Stanford looked good. At the end of the day, the game really came down to Thomas, then James, and our defense’s ability to adapt to the power run game, which is exactly what we did against Ohio State, when we beat them over the last 3 quarters (by one point), held them to one TD, but only after spotting them 10 points.

Anyway Stanford, my very best wishes. An amazing game. I am stunned that my Ducks came back after it looked like they were playing the 85 Bears, but that’s college football!