Morgan Stanley nearly triples US confirmed case forecast

Morgan Stanley said its base case scenario for the outbreak of the COVID-19 virus in the US points to a peak in about 20 days.

The firm's forecast suggests cumulative infections of about 570,000 with daily new infection growth to slow in late April. Its data model previously pointed to about 200,000 case.

"We continue to see the largest risk for the US as a second wave of infections emanating from the central region of the country after the coasts have peaked in mid-April."

The firm also said "importantly" that its new forecast continues to assume more social distancing and a continued rapid increase in testing.

"We would highlight that the biggest risk to this forecast is that while we have reasonable confidence the East and West coasts will reach peak cases in the next 2-3 weeks, the interior of the country is now exhibiting signs of new outbreaks.

Advertisement

"With these outbreaks delayed from the coasts by 2 weeks or more, there is risk that these new outbreaks will delay the US peak or cause recontamination of the coastal cities."

The US now has more global cases than any other country, the firm also said, adding that the growth rate of US cases is now the highest among all countries it follows and is accelerating faster than Italy when adjusted for the start of the respective outbreaks.

As for the death toll, the growth rate in the US is rising. "Mortality is increasing at an exponential rate in the US at a slightly lower slope than Italy prior its lockdown. While mortality will lag new cases, other countries have been able to slow from exponential growth after lockdowns."

Testing continues to lag the need for them in the US, the firm also said.

Morgan Stanley sees cumulative infections in New York city reaching about 100,000.

While the situation in the US is set to worse, there is some optimism for Italy.

"In Italy, trends continue to be positive, in our view. Overall testing positivity rates have dropped and new cases are no longer growing. We expect new cases to start to decrease consistently later this week."

The model suggests a peak of about 150,000 cumulative infections.

Morgan Stanley said France, Germany and Spain continue to track Italy more than China.

More than 10,000 people poured into the nation's capital on the ninth day of protests over police brutality, but what awaited them was a city that no longer felt as if it was being occupied by its own country's military.

More than 10,000 people poured into the nation's capital on the ninth day of protests over police brutality, but what awaited them was a city that no longer felt as if it was being occupied by its own country's military.