Nor’easter: How much snow, tidal flooding in NJ?

It looks like Monmouth and Ocean counties may get a glancing blow from the upcoming “supercyclone” off the East Coast, but uncertainty remains, according to government forecasters.

A briefing by Larry Nierenberg,[2] a meteorologist in the National Service Mount Holly Office, says “a large and powerful nor’easter will develop off the southeastern states on Tuesday and strengthen as it moves northeastward off the Atlantic coast towards New England by Wednesday morning.”

“At this time, it appears that the storm will be far enough off the coast so that most areas (in our region) will only receive minor impacts,” the briefing says.

An initial snowfall forecast map[4] shows Monmouth and Ocean counties getting as much as 1 to 2 inches of snow by 2 p.m. Wednesday, with 2 to 4 inches falling in parts of North Jersey.

According to the briefing, any slight changes in the storm track or intensity will impact snowfall amounts one way or the other.

Forecast models agree, for the most part, that the storm will track well offshore, intensifying and moving northeast on Tuesday, according to a Mount Holly forecast discussion[5]. But it’s uncertain how far offshore the storm will be.

If the storm tracks farther west, the risk of coastal flooding will increase, with the Tuesday night high tide the main concern, the discussion says.

A hazardous weather outlook[6] says “there remains uncertainty regarding the track of the storm and intensity as it slides by to our east Tuesday night. As a result, there is uncertainty with the details. It does, however, appear that at least some wintry mix to snow occurs in our area Tuesday and Tuesday night. In addition, strong northerly winds will be possible Tuesday night and Wednesday, with the potential for some coastal flooding.”

Other points in Nierenberg’s briefing:

– Precipitation should begin during Tuesday and continue into early Tuesday night before tapering off from southwest to northeast. Initially, the precipitation will begin as rain or a mix of rain and snow over most areas (except the Poconos) during the day on Tuesday. The precipitation will transition back to all snow Tuesday evening.

– The higher sun angle in late March and temperatures above freezing on Tuesday (except in the Poconos and extreme northern New Jersey) should help prevent significant daytime snow accumulations on normally warmer and paved surfaces, unless there is heavy snow.

– Both the Tuesday evening and Wednesday morning commutes could be affected, even though the snow should be over by Wednesday morning.

– Freezing rain is not expected, but a brief period of freezing drizzle is possible across higher terrain.

– Northeast winds of 10 to 20 mph, with gusts to 30 mph, can be expected late Tuesday night through Wednesday. Gusts exceeding 40 mph are possible near the Atlantic coast. Expect blowing snow.

– Localized minor tidal flooding is possible along the Atlantic coast, given the onshore flow. The high tides to watch are on Tuesday night into Wednesday. The best chance for minor tidal flooding is the farther north you go.