Sharon looks like a winner

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On Thursday, Israel will choose its next leader. After months of internecine warfare, political instability and high drama, the new
guy is likely to be the same as the old guy.

The choice will be made not in a national election, but in the Likud Party primary. The contenders are Prime Minister Ariel (Arik)
Sharon and Benjamin (Bibi) Netanyahu.

The winner faces off in what promises to be an anticlimactic contest in January against an opponent with no nickname, the newly
elected Labor Party leader, Amram Mitzna. A former general, he is a Sabra cross between Michael Dukakis and John Kerry. Polls
show he would probably do better running for office in Massachusetts.

Mitzna has become the leader of Labor pretty much by default. His predecessor, Binyamin (Fuad) Ben-Eliezer, was too crude for
his elite-leaning party. Mitzna is, in contrast, fastidious. He kicked off his campaign by announcing that A) He does not believe in
God; and B) He will negotiate with terrorists as he unilaterally withdraws from Gaza. He can expect the political reward that awaits
all brutally honest atheist-appeasement wartime candidates.

Neither Sharon nor Netanyahu suffers from a similar excess of candor. Sharon, for the sake of American good will, swears
strenuously that he favors the Bush administration's plan to create a Palestinian state in the West Bank and Gaza. Netanyahu,
with equal vehemence, says he'll tell Washington to forget about it.

As every Likudnik knows, both candidates are lying.

While America is engaged in reshaping the Middle East, no sane Israeli prime minister will get into a fight with Washington. If
elected, Netanyahu will play along with Bush's (not too sincere) Palestinian policy, just as Sharon has.

In the absence of a real ideological or policy difference between the contenders, the Likud primary will be decided mostly on
emotion. Polls show Sharon leading Netanyahu 56% to 38%.

This is unsurprising. Sharon is an incumbent father figure who generally is thought to have done a good job in difficult
circumstances. He also has the support of the Bush administration --- a not inconsiderable asset. Back in the days of Bush I, Arik
was persona non grata in Washington; now he is Dubya's ally and confidant.

Last week, U.S. officials began telling reporters that
the President looks favorably on Sharon's request for $10 billion in loan guarantees.

Netanyahu would love a good word from Bush, but he won't get it. His problem is his personality, not his politics. Bibi visits
Washington often, and he hasn't managed to hide his belief that he, not Bush, is best qualified to lead the Free World. This
undistilled self-regard also causes him problems at home. If he had his own Israeli sitcom, it would be called, "Nobody Loves Bibi."

Netanyahu's only real hope is Hamas. In 1996, an election eve wave of bus bombings helped discredit dovish Shimon Peres and
put Bibi in the prime minister's chair for three scandal-ridden, competence-free years.

History may be repeating itself. In the past two weeks, terrorists have staged a series of attacks. In Israeli politics, the murder of
civilians, especially children, arouses sufficient public anger and frustration to deliver a short-term, cathartic bump to the toughest
talker. Another bombing would amount to a Netanyahu campaign rally.

Still, Sharon isn't Peres, and not many Likud primary voters will be convinced that the old warrior is soft on terrorism - especially
now that he has dropped the army back into Bethlehem and Hebron with a resounding thud.

11/18/02: It's the war, stupid11/14/02: The Dems don't have a prayer11/07/02: Watch for Dubya to give Arik political hug 10/31/02: Sharpton the patriot10/22/02: Rabin, gone but not missed10/17/02: Israelis bracing for US' punch at Iraq 10/14/02: Geriatric war resisters09/27/02: Al Gore: The Lost Boy of American politics09/05/02: The intifadeh's over, and the Israelis won 08/29/02: At the world summit, just anger & hypocrisy08/21/02: No time for weak knees on Iraq 08/16/02: A pro-Arab pol may get the beating she deserves 08/13/02: Fight it out now 08/02/02: Memo to The Council on Foreign Relations: U.S. values won't sell in Arab world 07/31/02: Israel's nutty neighbors