n
just this past week, conservative legend William F. Buckley Jr. and
neoconservative icon Francis Fukuyama have joined the swelling ranks of
Americans judging George W. Bushs invasion of Iraq a disaster.

One cant doubt that the American objective in
Iraq has failed, Buckley wrote at
National Review Online on Feb. 24, adding that the challenge now
facing Bush and his top advisers is how to cope with the reality of that
failure.

Within their own counsels, different plans have to be
made, Buckley wrote after a week of bloody sectarian violence in Iraq. And the
kernel here is the acknowledgement of defeat.

Fukuyama, a leading neoconservative theorist, went further
citing not just the disaster in Iraq but the catastrophe enveloping Bushs
broader strategy of preemptive military American interventions, waged
unilaterally when necessary.

The so-called Bush Doctrine that set the framework for the
administrations first term is now in shambles, Fukuyama wrote Feb. 19 in The
New York Times Magazine.

Successful preemption depends on the ability to predict
the future accurately and on good intelligence, which was not forthcoming, while
Americas perceived unilateralism has isolated it as never before, Fukuyama
wrote.

While those Americans who always opposed the Iraq War may
see this unseemly scramble of Bushs former allies as a classic case of rats
deserting a sinking ship, the loss of these two prominent thinkers of the Right
mark a turning point in the political battle over the U.S. occupation of Iraq.

If Bush cant hold William F. Buckley Jr.  and if even the
ranks of the neocons are starting to crack  Bush may soon be confronted with a
hard choice of either acknowledging his errors or tightening his authoritarian
control of the United States.

Bushs foundering Iraq policy also raises the stakes in the
November elections. Prospects have brightened for those who want Bush held
accountable for his reckless deeds and his violation of laws, both domestic and
international.

Fortune Reversal

This reversal of fortune is stunning when compared to
Bushs seeming omnipotence in 2002, when he unveiled the Bush Doctrine, and even
a year ago when leading U.S. pundits were hailing the President as
a visionary leader.

Bush picked his belligerent course in the days after the
Sept. 11, 2001, terror attacks on New York and Washington. Though the world had
rallied to Americas side  offering both sympathy and cooperation in fighting
terrorism  Bush chose to issue ultimatums.

Bush famously told other nations that they were either
with us, or you are with the terrorists. Vowing to
rid the world of evil, he made clear he would brush aside any
restrictions on his actions, including the United Nations Charter and the
Geneva Conventions.

Europeans were soon protesting
Bushs treatment of detainees at Guantanamo Bay and Muslims were voicing growing
hatred for the United States. Though Bush's tough actions were popular with his
base, they played poorly abroad.

It annoys your allies in the war
against terrorism, and it creates problems for our Muslim allies, too, one West
European ambassador said in 2002. It puts at stake the moral credibility of the
war against terrorism. [See Consortiumnews.coms Bushs
Return to Unilateralism.]

Bush spelled out his broader strategy in a speech at West
Point on June 1, 2002. He asserted a unilateral U.S. right to overthrow any
government in the world that is deemed a threat to American security, a position
so sweeping it lacked historical precedent.

If we wait for threats to fully materialize, we will have
waited too long, Bush said in describing what soon became known as the Bush
Doctrine.

Shortly after Bushs West Point speech, an article at
Consortiumnews.com observed that Bushs grim vision is of a modern crusade,
as he once put it, with American military forces striking preemptively
at evil-doers wherever they live, while U.S. citizens live under a redefined
Constitution with rights that can be suspended selectively by one man.

Beyond the enormous sacrifices of blood, money and freedom
that this plan entails, there is another problem: the strategy offers no
guarantee of greater security for Americans and runs the risk of deepening the
pool of hatred against the United States.

With his cavalier tough talk, Bush continues to show no sign that he grasps how
treacherous his course is, nor how much more difficult it will be if the U.S.
alienates large segments of the world's population. [See Bushs
Grim Vision]

Iraq War

On March 19, 2003, Bush took another fateful step, ordering
the invasion of Iraq despite being denied authority from the U.N. Security
Council.

After ousting Saddam Husseins regime three weeks later,
Bush basked in popular acclaim from many Americans. He even donned a flight suit
for a Mission Accomplished aircraft-carrier celebration on May 1, 2003.

During those heady days, Bush and his neoconservative
advisers dreamed of remaking the entire Middle East with pro-U.S. leaders chosen
through elections and Arab nations ending their hostility toward Israel.

But Bushs wishful thinking began to run into trouble. A
fierce resistance emerged in Iraq, claiming the lives of hundreds  and then
thousands  of U.S. soldiers who couldnt quell the violence. Instead of
contributing to peace, the Iraqi elections deepened the countrys sectarian
divisions  empowering the Shiite majority while alienating the Sunni minority.

Surging anti-Americanism caused other Middle East elections
to have the opposite results from what Bushs neoconservatives predicted.
Instead of breeding moderation, elections in Pakistan, Egypt, Iran and the
Palestinian Authority saw gains by Islamic extremists, including a surprise
victory by the militant group Hamas in Palestine.

The United States also has seen its international
reputation devastated by reports of abuse and torture in U.S.-run detention
centers. Rather than the all-powerful nation that the neocons wanted to project,
the United States revealed the limitations of its military might and the
incompetence of its administrative follow-through.

This string of catastrophes has now led even prominent
conservatives to conclude that Bushs stay the course strategy must be
rethought. They see Iraq spiraling toward a civil war with 138,000 U.S. troops
caught in the middle

The latest defectors  Buckley and Fukuyama  threaten to
pull away even members of Bushs political base. Buckley is the godfather of
conservative punditry, while Fukuyama has been a bright light among neocon
theorists.

Now, Bush must decide what to do  admit mistakes and heed
the advice of critics  or circle the wagons even tighter and lash out at the
growing majority of Americans who think the war in Iraq was a deadly mistake.

Robert Parry broke many of the Iran-Contra
stories in the 1980s for the Associated Press and Newsweek. His latest book, Secrecy & Privilege: Rise of the Bush Dynasty from
Watergate to Iraq, can be ordered at
secrecyandprivilege.com. It's also available at
Amazon.com, as is his 1999 book, Lost History: Contras, Cocaine,
the Press & 'Project Truth.'