Artificial Intelligence Is Software Firm`s Aim

Marketers of personal computer software, stalled by a glut of look-alike programs, seem poised for a breakthrough that could transform the $2.6 billion business into a truly mass market.

Small, entrepreneurial software developers, hoping to survive the current shakeout, are counting on the personal computer`s evolution into a high-power ``intuitive`` machine that can solve problems, as well as do word processing and spreadsheet programs.

For these weaker players -- many of whom were asking ``What`s next?`` at the recent Softcon industry trade show in Atlanta -- the answer may be programs based on artificial intelligence technology. The aim of the emerging software category is to make a desktop computer mimic human thought and help users make tough decisions.

``The magic has died -- it`s shocking how fast the industry has matured,`` said Ted Leonsis, editor-publisher of List, a leading business software directory. Artificial intelligence, or AI, ``is probably the last-gasp chance for a lot of small software companies. The world isn`t waiting for another generic word-processing package.``

Because the new breed of software targets top decision-makers in business -- not the clerks and accountants who use word processors and spreadsheets -- marketers are particularly upbeat about its profit potential.

Top executives of small companies and middle-management types at big companies are currently the largest untapped market for personal computer software, developers say.

Advocates of AI software point out that the current generation of popular integrated packages (such as Lotus 1-2-3) spits out ``decisions`` based principally on numbers, but few high-level corporate decisions are made on financial considerations alone.

Executives responsible for such areas as strategic planning, acquisitions, new-product development and advertising deserve more help than they get from the numbers-based software programs now on the market, AI developers say.

Industry watchers expect the first big wave of AI-based microcomputer programs to be ``expert systems`` -- packages that store huge amounts of knowledge fed in by experts in a particular discipline.

With these packages, a non-expert manager trying to make choices about sales strategies, for instance, offers a set of factors and the software figures out the best choice, based on a vast data bank entered by the user`s predecessors. Or the system`s knowledge can come from generic ``experts`` outside the company.

The programs combine research in psychology and business to come up with customized reports on how to behave in certain situations.

Until recently, AI programs ran only on large mini or mainframe computers. But the technology is reaching out to the broad arena of personal computer users because the newest personal computers, particularly IBM Corp.`s PC AT, have the faster microprocessors and hard disc-drives needed to run artificial intelligence.

Another recent advancement: No longer does ``computerese`` have to be used to gain access to AI-based programs.

The expert systems AI-based software amounts to a sophisticated, electronic version of the management ``success`` titles that have flooded bookstores in the last few years.

At Softcon, Human Edge Software Corp., a pioneer in the expert systems AI segment, unveiled Expert Edge, a $795 business package that one reviewer claims packs the power of $10,000 systems that run on mainframes.