September 25, 2018

New Brunswick will have a minority government

For the first time since 1920, New Brunswick will have a minority government. Currently, Blaine Higgs and his Progressive Conservatives have 22 seats as compared to Brian Gallant and the Liberals with 21 seats in the 49-seat legislative assembly. Tradition offers up that the current government, run by Gallant, will have the first opportunity to form government in New Brunswick.

The wild card is particularly wild with 3 seats each for the Green Party and the People's Alliance. David Coon was the only Green Party member of the government elected in 2014. This was the first time in 3 elections that the People's Alliance placed members in the legislative assembly. The New Democratic Party once again gained 0 seats.

The Liberals did have 38.7% of the vote, beating the PCs by 6 percentage points.

Liberals + Greens = 24 seats. PCs + PAs = 25 seats. While there are similarities in constituencies for the latter 2 parties, that coalition might not last for long. The Liberals are the stronghold for the Francophone sections of the province. The People's Alliance is considered by most neutral observers to be anti-Francophone.

For those who remember the concerns with the British Columbia election last year, that seems very normal compared to the New Brunswick scenario.

The Progressive Conservatives may form government despite having the same number of seats going into the election. The Liberals won 27 seats in the 2014 election, had 24 seats going into the government, and now has 21 seats.

People's Alliance leader Kris Austin mentioned common sense, language fairness, and tax reform in his speech last night. New Brunswick is the only officially bilingual province in Canada. The traditional Acadians live mostly in the northern part of the province. Moncton is also fairly bilingual; Fredericton is bilingual being the provincial capital; Saint John is less bilingual by comparison.

"Language fairness" is in the eye of the beholder. Austin didn't speak in French in his speech. Higgs, who was criticized during the campaign for not knowing French, did speak some French during his speech.

Dominic Cardy was cast perfectly for a key player in the new government. Cardy was elected in the Fredericton West-Hanwell riding as a PC candidate. Yet Cardy was the NDP leader in 2011 and ran 3 times overall as a NDP candidate before winning with the PCs. Cardy will have more individual power in this government.

New Brunswick will have a record 11 women in the legislative assembly: 5 Liberals, 4 PCs, and 1 each for the Greens and People's Alliance.

The CBC debate accommodated all 5 people on stage, including NDP leader Jennifer McKenzie.