The Phillies Absolutely Shouldn’t Trade Rollins

In sports, the term ‘anchoring’ refers to when fans develop an opinion based off of a specific series of events and hold steadfastly to that opinion regardless of what subsequently transpires. Most of the time anchoring occurs at the start of a season, when a hot or cold stretch can mislead fans into under- or overvaluing certain players. When preformed opinions join anchoring at the bar, lazy narratives are often born. Jimmy Rollins is another perfect example of why anchoring to early season struggles, especially when it supposedly helps confirm a preconceived notion, is folly in the world of analysis.

Yes, Rollins started off slowly. He posted a terrible .259 wOBA in April, with a poor .283 on-base percentage that was actually higher than his even worse .271 slugging percentage. His defense remained solid, but he looked mostly lost throughout his first 85 trips to the dish. Since he hasn’t exactly been an offensive juggernaut recently, and because he is past his prime, it became very easy to assume that Rollins was done; that he was washed up; that his new contract was a joke, because the Phillies were paying $11 million per season to the shortstop formerly known as Jimmy Rollins.

Don't even think about trading him.

Though many would readily admit that, under most circumstances, 85 plate appearances is far too small a sample off of which to base definitive conclusions, the mixture of anchoring to his early struggles and the preexisting belief — or fear — that he is rapidly declining, led to unnecessary widespread panic.

But then something funny happened — Rollins started hitting again. He posted a .289 wOBA in May, which, while still very poor, was an improvement. And he followed that up with a .396 wOBA in June. It may have taken him a while to get going, but Rollins has been tearing the cover off of the ball recently, and his seasonal line is right where we would expect it, even after a very poor two months to start the season.

Even before he started proving that he still has offensive talent in the tank, it would have been foolish to consider trading Rollins. Now that he has once again proven himself capable of hitting at a relatively high level, while flashing all-sport defense at the most important infield position, the Phillies shouldn’t even think twice about trading him.

First, it’s important to remember that offense is down across the league, and that the appropriate context is tantamount to properly evaluating a player. Rollins’ seasonal .258/.314/.417 line looks low relative to the league from, say, 2002-06, but we’re in a different offensive environment right now. Back in 2006, the National League hit .265/.334/.427. In that context, Rollins’ current numbers are below average. But the offensive environment has dropped off precipitously over the last few years. Overall, the National League has a .253/.318/.400 line this year, and a .312 wOBA. Rollins has a .319 wOBA. He is an above average hitter right now, even after hitting so poorly in April and May.

And that evaluation is made relative to the league as a whole, whereas Rollins plays a premium defensive position that isn’t exactly known for offense. The average senior circuit shortstop has a .254/.307/.374 line this season and a .298 wOBA. At .258/.314/.417, and a .319 wOBA, Rollins is well above average relative to his position. He has the third-highest wOBA for a qualified National League shortstop — trailing Ian Desmond and Jed Lowrie — so not only is he an above average hitter, he is one of the best-hitting shortstops in the league.

Add to that his fine glovework, which ranks fourth among the qualifying hitters, and his baserunning, which far and away leads other NL shortstops — Rollins has a +2.7 baserunning mark per Fangraphs, and second place is Rafael Furcal at +1.8 — and Rollins has already tallied 2.6 WAR this season. It might not seem like he is having a very good season, but he is once again on pace to finish with around 4 WAR. The ZIPS projection system sees him finishing the season with a .321 wOBA, 15 home runs and 25 stolen bases, to go along with +5 fielding and top-notch baserunning.

Getting around 4 WAR for $11 million is a veritable bargain, so while it makes sense to overpay for a premium position like shortstop if it means retaining an all-star caliber player, my money is on the Phillies getting surplus value out of this deal when all is said and done. All of which is a roundabout way of saying that Rollins is too important a piece to trade.

Not only would trading him require the Phillies to find his replacement, but it would mean that a franchise-type player would be dealt in the first year of what is ostensibly a four-year, $44 million contract — it’s a three-year deal, but that fourth-year option is vesting. If this were the last year of the deal, or if Rollins had 1.5 years left, I could understand the thought process behind moving him.

But now? Even if they could get fair value in a prospect package, his current level of productivity would greatly hinder the Phillies chances of contending next season. And while it’s strange to discuss a last place team contending next year, if everyone is healthy is there really any reason to think the Phillies couldn’t vie for a playoff berth in 2013? They certainly couldn’t without Rollins, though, unless an equally productive player is brought in. At that point, the Phils would have to trade a prospect package, which would render the return on Rollins moot.

There is also the major issue that the most interested team — the Dodgers — doesn’t have what the Phillies truly need. When discussing potential Cole Hamels deals with Mike Petriello of Mike Scioscia’s Tragic Illness, the point was raised that the areas the Phillies farm system most desperately needs are areas of weakness for the Dodgers. While it’s common to toss around ‘prospects’ as a blanket generalization of how a trade could work, this is an example where the Phillies wouldn’t really get what they needed out of a deal. They aren’t getting a third baseman from the Dodgers, and they really don’t need more minor league pitching prospects, at least not through a trade of one of their top players.

A lot goes into properly evaluating a player, and Rollins is a perfect example of those analytic facets. Not letting preformed opinions fuel a current evaluation is key, as is incorporating the appropriate context. It might not seem like Rollins is having a very good season, but he is in every sense of the description. Offense is down, but his is up relative to the league, and way up relative to the position. He plays fantastic defense at the toughest position and runs the bases extremely well.

That’s worth far more than $11 million per season, and there is absolutely no reason to trade him. Unlike some other Phillies mentioned in recent rumors, Rollins is not replaceable because his production literally cannot be replaced without coughing up more value than the Phils would get in a trade sending him elsewhere. The Phillies figure to be very active over the next week or two, but trading Rollins shouldn’t even cross their minds.

1. He is not a good leadoff guy. Thats not his fault. Its the organizations fault for never getting the team a true leadoff man. He should be batting sixth.

2. Consistency. He goes into looooooonnnnnggggg spells of offensive ineptitude.

3. The reception that Jimmy cares too much about Jimmy. We know he pouts when Charlie moves him out of the leadoff spot. No one feels sorry for him. He popped off about his contract last year. I would love to hear him, one day, in earnest, say “I’ll do whatever the teams needs me to do.

I think he’s a fine shortstop and good offensively for his position. 11M over three years? No, You can keep WAR. I know what I see.

Adding to the problem.
As no other team was even bidding on this guy last off season Ruben and the fans had to have him.
So they over paid. And here he is.

But he will join with the other “anchors” the next 3 years.And not make the playoffs.

He is untradable anyway.

At some point Ruben and Charlie will lose their jobs in the duration of this contract.
A new manager will hit him in his rightful spot in the order. 7th or 8th and that combined with his glove. If it remains good. Will make him a serviceable SS and an asset.
Kind of.

I agree with the article, but Rollins is overpaid and could be a decent offensive player. I’ve said this before, he would be a 300 hitter if he could bunt like Pierre. That translates into a
“selfish” offensive player. But his overall worth to this team is high.

Eric makes great points all throughout the articles – some fans just don’t like Rollins for various reasons – like him winning a World Series here, or him being paid a reasonable amount for an above average SS

The problem of many of the fans who vastly over rate their talent.
The phillies broadcasts and this site (I assume others but I dont read) add to that problem.
The biggest problem is that the Phillies have a GM who is on a level of blog writer or poster.

Fact in real life my National and Mets fan friends laughed at this signing. And continue to.

You come here and its like hes great and they are 14 games up. Not 14 down.

So….AGAIN….the question I will ask certain people….Dipsy, AFW, others that don’t like Jimmy or don’t think he should be here for God knows whatever reason….. Just who do YOU suggest plays shortstop right now??? And it has to be someone who plays it at least as well as Jimmy does right now.

Whether the Phils consider trades for Rollins depends, at least to me, on what they can get for him. It would have to be a big package, though; something that fills a position of need NOW, someone with good offensive numbers. I don’t see that happening.

Also, I have to totally disagree with Shart here, when he says Rollins is a selfish hitter. He has a different skill set than Pierre. There’s no reason he should bunt more, because by swinging away, he can hit for extra bases and even home runs. Pierre bunts more because he’s already just a singles hitter. There’s no sense in him trying to swing away. Rollins might be be crossing the plate after one swing, while Pierre would have to beat out a bunt, then maybe steal second, then hope that someone behind him gets a hit.

So you still didn’t answer the question…. Who do you think should play SS that is at least as good as Jimmy is at the position. And please don’t say Freddy Galvis because my comeback will be stating the obvious.

I don’t like articles that use words like “absolutely”. Should they dump Rollins, no but should they trade? The right question is for what? Rollins is a solid MLB player who plays a good SS position. But would I trade him for a power hitting 3B the answer is probably. Rollins is an offensive quandry. He wants to hit HRs but he bats leadoff. He is back to his old sins of chasing high fastballs. I don’t question that he is strong enough to hit HRs but that is not the point. I don’t want those strikeouts in the leadoff position. He should probably bat sixth and will eventually be moved down the lineup if we get some speed to move to the top. Don’t tell me you don’t think Pierre should be leading off against RHP!

Bottom line is that Rollins is a good player but not great. Stuff the intangibles and give me OBP – and not for a month but for the whole year.

I don’t care whether Pierre leads off against RHP. You could make an argument that on the days he plays, Pierre should be leading off, but that’s not clearcut.

Pierre certainly has gotten on base more this year (.349 to .314), but not since early May (PIerre .324, Rollins .332). So unless you entrusted Pierre (who many didn’t even think should make the team) with the leadoff spot since opening day, you would have missed out on any advantage he might have given you.

Since the start of last year, their OBP is essentially the same (Pierre .335 vs. Rollins .329). The gap widens a bit, but is still not dramatic if you go back to 2010 (.338 vs. 326), and you would have to go back to 2009 to really see a difference between the two.

So I guess my position on this is if it’s not going to make a big difference, and until they do have somebody who’s clearly a better fit in the leadoff spot than somewhere else in the order, leave Rollins where he is most comfortable.

And my position is that Roilins at this point in his career could be a better run producer if he wasn’t always hitting behind the 8 hole hitter and the pitcher.

The Reds have interest in Pierre- you know what their stated reason is? They need a leadoff hitter.

Also, just to clarify, the difference between Pierre’s career splits v LHP and RHP are minimal. His 2012 split looks bad but is based on- only 41 AB’s, not a fair sample size when compared to a 12 year career.

With his 10 & 5 rights (10 years in the league, 5 with the current team) – Rollins would have to approve a trade …. after just signing to stay here, there’s almost no chance that he would welcome a trade anyway …

I understand the desire for a lineup change, I really do . . . but as i’ve stated 11 Million times, this team won 102 games last year!!!… it’s not like they are bad, and desperately need to shake things up

The problem to me – and not to single out my buddy Andrew (little known secret: in real life we’re BFF)- is the notion that the Phillies *SHOULD HAVE* won the WS in 2010, 2011 ……… to me, I don’t think you can ever say that in sports. . . . the Phillies *COULD HAVE* won the WS in 2010, 2011 …. which is why I stay optomistic

If you think they SHOULD win, SHOULD have won . . . you’re setting yourself up for disappointment if they aren’t the ONE team that comes out on top

Id have not resigned Rollins signed and signed Furcal for 5 million.
Used the extra 6 million on whomever. SS or any ther position.

And waited on Freddy or whomever a GM who was worth a crap would turn into the SS for the next 3 years.

But this is like saying. Id have not signed Howard way back when and we would have a better 1B at 10 million. And that added with the 6 million saved on Jimmy is 21 million to sign Cole.

What I am trying to tell you is. that the core of this line up should have been adjusted a little each year. Yes trade Utley or Rollins maybe after 09. Definately after 10.

A good GM would have freshened things up along the way.
Ours let is fester and stink into rigormortis.

I dont even not want Jimmy here. So me saying who hypotheticly else I dont want here is moot.

But with how he has run the team int the dirt the last 3 years. the very easiest and common sense thing in the world would have been to nto resign Rollins this last off season.
That simple task didnt happen.

And now here we are. I know this. If you think this same group that has regressed the last 4 years will suddenly be good in 2013 you are wrong.

I want players moved. And I dont know who replaces them or care really.
Whats the worst you could be?
Last place?

thats a 5 year progression that andrew from waldorf has been mentioning since 2009
AFW Predicted Giants result. And Cardinals down to exact score for game 5
And n a positive note I knew theyd have a huge regular season win total.

i agree with Dipsey! he goes through such long periods of doing nothing then gets hot for 2-3 weeks wooptee doo! yea i’ll agree that he’s a good SS though he’s declining in speed and range. theres not much out there SS wise to say the least. he’s a whiner a slacker and selfish to boot!

look at his rbi total that tells you something! what it tells you is that he’s been very unproductive for a vast majority of the season cept for that 2-3 week span. and i don’t get where you say eric that he’s been tearing the cover off the ball. what team are you watching? so he gor a HR the other day? lets see what he does the rest of the month. he sure doesn’t walk much. and for a guy who ripping it his 34 RBI are only 10 more that no hit freddy has! and he’s been out for what a month? and he was an 8 hole hitter. j-bag was a tree hole hitter and had plenty of oportunities to drive in runs. but that’s hard to do when you shoot the ball straight up into the air! Do we have an alternative to him? at this juncture no but if one comes along take it and shove this overpaid man out

That was funny, but seriously, running out every batted ball is important in ways that WAR can’t measure. It juices up the entire dugout, it makes young players see what the vets do, and follow suit. I don’t care if running them all out, gives him only one more base hit in 600 AB’s, it’s worth it. His manager would respect him for it, his fans, his team mates, everyone.

There is great value in a player that makes a team better through intangibles.

On the other side of the fence, if running out every ball you ever hit at maximum effort results in injuries, then it’s best to conserve your energy and use it when it’ll be most needed.

I’d rather have a guy who runs hard 80% of the time on the field for 95% of all games, rather than a guy who runs hard 100% of the time on the field for 55% of all games. Chase, for example, should probably shut it down more often than he does, if only to prolong his seasons and career.

are you asking me if i want a SS who walks more consistantly? YES in the leadoff spot. and also good offensively?YES. (if one exists? come on. do you remembe the 3 year span of 06, 07, 08, with 08 being a MVP season? i do cause that was the player he has the ability to be! he was patient and hit his pitch alot! if he does that he’ll naturally get more walks and be on base more for the big guys to drive in. what’s wrong with that? is that asking too much from a player? or to hustle on every ground ball. every time he hits a dinger he thinks he’s a home run hitter and goes into a two week funk teying to smack one out! i just wish he’d play within himself and play the game right! that’s all i ask of a player. i don’t care how much they pay him if he does that, but for how he plays , it’s too much. the answer to your question doe’s one exist. yea him he just don’t do it!

“look at his rbi total that tells you something!” — what? what do RBIs for a leadoff hitter tell you? this is where it’s helpful to know that he’s hitting .284, with a .902 OPS with runners in scoring position

“what team are you watching?” – LOL. exactly. He’s hitting .265 with a .561 slugging percentage and a .907 OPS for the last month. 8 doubles, 3 triples, 5 HRs, and 15 RBI.

“he sure doesn’t walk much” – his walks are down a bit this year (although he’s only 4 behind team leader Pence), but even with that, for the past few years he’s walked more than average (9.0% vs. league average 8.6%). He’s also walked more than the average leadoff hitter (7.4%). Would you prefer Pierre, maybe (5.9% since 2010)?

So Andrew… I didn’t ask you who you, if you were GM (God help us all!), WOULD have signed instead of Rollins. You stated Furcal which is a legit answer if I had actually asked that. What I asked was who you would want the Phillies to plug in the SS hole….RIGHT NOW…if they were to trade Rollins.

If you’re having trouble coming up with an answer it’s because of the obvious…..THERE REALLY ISN’T ANYONE!!! At least that can play as well as Jimmy can..

If you trade Jimmy, you don’t need to get a shortstop back that is as good as Jimmy. That is because the value you get back can go into other areas, like OF or 3B. Further, I wanted to sign Furcal last season and It was an easy decision for me (but I’m not the Phillies). Less money, less years, comparable talent. Then, you can use the money you save and add value to other areas and stay more flexible at the same time.

It also galls me when guys get paid for past performance and not future returns. Jimmy ain’t worth 11m this year and his value will only decline further as the contract matures.

Players are always paid for past performance, because there’s no one besides God who can tell you what their future performance is going to be.

They are sometimes rewarded, too, because they had been underpaid in the past compared to other similar players. And sometimes they’re paid a little extra because they put butts in the seats and people want T-shirts and fake jerseys with that particular name on it.

Semantics, mostly. It’s still largely a matter of past performance, because even injuries are part of a player’s past. And an ancient guy who’s been very good will always be paid more than a somewhat younger mediocrity, even when it’s obvious the old codger’s production is slipping.

Maybe players aren’t rewarded much to compensate for being underpaid in the past, but it does happen. I’ll point to the word “sometimes” in my comment; that isn’t “a whole lot of times.” I suppose I should have said “once in a while,” but is that really that much different than “sometimes?” when the point is that it has happened?

Dipsy…please. That’s one of the most ridiculous answers/ideas I have ever heard. Last I checked the Phillies are a major league baseball team…playoffs or not….so some guy off the streets won’t quite cut it.

Dipsy, I get ya. I just don’t think there is anyone out there that makes sense. Look…Jimmy’s really not having that terrible a season. Right in line, actually. I agree he shouldn’t be batting leadoff though. In a perfect world.