Threat to GDP may be offset by US growth, poll spending –Barclays

Analysts from a UK-based investment bank pointed out that overall exports were still down 8.3 percent in the second quarter, compared with a 0.3 percent fall in the preceding quarter, despite the month-on-month improvement in June from May.

“Combined with softness in remittances, poor weather conditions and slow government disbursement, we see downside risk to our 6.5 percent growth forecast for 2015, following the weak first-quarter gross domestic product print,” analysts at the Barclays said in a note.

Going forward, however, an ongoing improvement in the US manufacturing index, which suggests strengthening external demand, could support Philippine export activity during the second half of 2015, the analysts said.

“And as we approach the [Philippine] election season, campaign-related spending should also have a positive impact on private consumption,” the Barclays note added.