BREAKING -- AFP/London: “China's greenhouse gas emissions will peak between 2030 and 2040, the country's science and technology minister said Monday …Wan Gang said the precise timing of the level would depend on China's economic growth, rate of urbanisation and level of scientific development.”

By Tim Grieve, Lisa Lerer and Mike Allen

COPENHAGEN -- Good Monday morning. It’s Day 1 of the U.N. Climate Change Conference -- and Day 1 of Copenhagen Connection, your early-morning blast of news from POLITICO’s reporters in Copenhagen and Washington. Here we go:

FULL-COURT PRESS: 56 newspapers around the world publish the same editorial (in languages that include English, Chinese, Arabic, Russian), calling for agreement in Copenhagen on “the essential elements of a fair and effective deal,” coupled with a “firm timetable” for “turning it into a treaty” by next June’s U.N. meeting in Bonn. Only two U.S. papers sign on: The Miami Herald and its Spanish-language sister, El Nuevo Herald. In Britain, The Guardian turns over its whole Monday front page, with the banner headline: “Fourteen days to seal history’s judgment on this generation.” The paper says that the text “was drafted by a Guardian team during more than a month of consultations with editors from more than 20 of the papers involved. Like the Guardian most of the newspapers have taken the unusual step of featuring the editorial on their front page.” Guardian text. Behind the scenes of the editorial project.

EXCLUSIVE -- A WHITE HOUSE OFFICIAL, on President Obama’s trip next week, and Cabinet members’ appearances this week: “The primary reason for the President's visit is to participate in the negotiations and work to advance the accord, and the U.S. negotiating position, during the window in which reaching an agreement will be possible. In advance of the President's visit, members of the Cabinet whose agencies have been working throughout the year to support the transition to a clean energy economy will tell the story about the strong action the U.S. has taken this year, both domestically and internationally, to combat climate change. … In addition to many side events, there will be a keynote event featuring an administration official each day at the U.S. Center [starting Tuesday]. In addition, Envoy Todd Stern and Deputy Envoy Jonathan Pershing will hold press briefings as there are developments in the negotiations.”

FORMER VICE PRESIDENT AL GORE will speak on Tuesday, Dec. 15, at the Bella Center. In addition, he’ll have private meetings with government, business and NGO representatives in an effort to secure a strong agreement.

THIS MORNING’S HEADLINES -- The (British) Independent: “The world arrives in Copenhagen.” The (London) Times, banner: “The world comes together to love the planet.” International Herald Tribune: “Copenhagen forum to battle divisions: Major fault lines lie in the way of securing even an interim accord.”

** Use Clean Skies News to connect you with Copenhagen — Capitol Hill — and the global climate change debate. Stay informed of the most critical energy news of the day. Visit www.cleanskies.com. **

1) Can they cut it? A draft text of the pact circulated by Danish officials would have nations agreeing to cut emissions in half by 2050, but China and India say they oppose that target. Brazil, South Africa, India, China and Sudan plan to submit their own draft — one that rejects legally binding emissions cuts.

2) Is there enough money on the table? The World Bank estimates developing countries will need $75 billion to $100 billion per year over the next 40 years to adapt to climate change. Developed countries are expected to propose jump-start financing closer to $10 billion per year through 2012.

3) Who’s seeing red? China’s word isn’t enough for many developing nations, who want to put in place strict systems to measure, report and validate the Chinese emissions cuts.

4) What will Congress say? Without congressional action, or at least the promise that a Senate bill will come soon, foreign nations may be unwilling to make their own reductions. But unless international negotiators make movement toward a global agreement, U.S. lawmakers will resist making cuts at home, fearing that new regulations will drive manufacturing jobs to cheaper markets such as China and India.

5) Is there O-mentum? For Obama’s in-the-thick-of-things visit to have much of an effect, he will have to make a serious commitment to getting a climate bill passed and signed this spring. At the same time, Obama must be careful not to overpromise: Administration officials know that a repeat of Kyoto would be a major defeat for the White House — and for efforts to slow global warming overall.

PLAN B: Rajendra Pachauri, chairman of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, told the AP Sunday that Barack Obama can bypass Congress and make stiffer reductions in greenhouse gas emissions via executive order. "There is scope for going above what is going to be legislated,” he said, although he added that the “first challenge” for the United States remains the Senate and getting a cap-and-trade bill through it.

TOP TALKER -- N.Y. Times, “Before Climate Meeting, a Revival of Skepticism,” by Andrew C. Revkin and John M. Broder: “Just two years ago, a United Nations panel that synthesizes the work of hundreds of climatologists around the world called the evidence for global warming ‘unequivocal.’ But as representatives of about 200 nations converge in Copenhagen on Monday to begin talks on a new international climate accord, they do so against a background of renewed attacks on the basic science of climate change. The debate, set off by the circulation of several thousand files and e-mail messages stolen from one of the world’s foremost climate research institutes, has led some who oppose limits on greenhouse gas emissions, and at least one influential country, Saudi Arabia, to question the scientific basis for the Copenhagen talks. … To skeptics, the purloined files suggest a conspiracy to foist an expensive policy agenda on the nations of the world … Many scientists, however, deny that any important data was held back and say that the e-mail messages and documents will in the end prove merely another manufactured controversy.”

BULLISH OR JUST B.S.? Yvo de Boer – the U.N.’s top climate official -- says it’s all over but the shouting anyway. “Two weeks after Copenhagen begins, I expect to be at home with my family, content that the governments of the world have set in place a strong agreement to act against the common threat of climate change.”

BUT: Kim Carstensen, leader of the WWF’s global climate initiative, tells Reuters: “It’s clear he hasn’t got all the big players on board but I don’t think he could have. Countries haven’t delivered what they’re supposed to in terms of clarity, commitments and proposals.”

BACK TO YOU, SIR: De Boer concedes that there are those “who have not yet put their full hand of cards on the table,” but he insists that they should feel comfortable doing so now – like South Africa did Sunday when it announced it would, over the next 10 years, reduce emissions 34 percent from what they’d otherwise be over that time period.

JUST ONE MORE THING: De Boer says developed nations should expect to provide at least $10 billion a year to help their less developed brethren build clean technologies and deal with the impacts of climate change .

NO PROBLEM! The parties start hashing it all out for real after this morning’s 10 a.m. plenary session – assuming, of course, that they can get inside the Bella Center by then. We picked up our credentials Sunday afternoon and evening, and the job took an average of two hours per person. Take a warm coat and a snack – the line started in the biting cold outdoors yesterday, and the only food we saw was inside the security perimeter.

MEMO TO ORGANIZERS: When you’ve got hundreds of people stuck in slow-moving lines, how about opening more than three of the 23 security lanes inside the Bella Center?

MEMO TO YOU-KNOW-WHO-YOU-ARE: With all those people waiting, did you really have to spend several minutes on the whole hair-brush-and-mirror routine before getting your ID photo taken?

MEMO TO INDIVIDUAL WORKERS: You couldn’t be nicer – and must be exhausted even before it begins.

NICE TOUCH: Laptops scattered through the Bella Center, complete with headsets and webcams so participants can Skype their news back home.

IF YOU’RE ON YOUR WAY: Take the organizers’ advice and ride the Copenhagen Metro in from the airport. Totally intuitive for anyone familiar with Washington’s version, except it’s hard to imagine an honor system working as well there as it seems to here.

YOU’LL THANK US LATER: Skip the line at the ticket booth in Terminal 3 and go for the short lines at the ticket machines instead – there’s an English option, and if you’ve got Danish coins, it will go much faster.

SPOTTED, from the window of the flight in from Zurich: A giant “Stop Climate Change Here” banner flying from the mast of the Greenpeace ship Beluga in Copenhagen harbor.

PUTTING THE “COP” IN COP-15: AFP says there 6,000 police are being deployed for the conference, and the English-language Copenhagen Post notes that they’re authorized to make “preemptive arrests” – holding for 12 hours anyone who’s likely to be engage in acts of civil disobedience.

COPENHAGEN WEATHER: High of about 46 today with light rain in the morning and cold winds in the afternoon.

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Reader's Comments (3)

The cost to countries is estimated at a conservative 6 billion a year. The US being the number two polluter puts us in the position of being one main thing to the rest, The check book. A French news reporter put it this way. "President Obama better not try to get away with the money he has in his pocket, because they are expecting him to bring suitcases full" Not brilliant but it makes the point. They want us to buy carbon credits to pay for developing countries growth in clean energy. Didn't anyone tell them that we were broke? If this link works it will give you an interesting perspective. http://www.france24.com/en/aef...

Global warming is the biggest scam to hit the world, esp America. It is a way to scam America out of trillions of dollars for some conceived wrong doing to other countries..we built ourselves out of nothing..time they did the same. I am tired of our money being shipped out to other countries that are in no better shape today than when we sent the first dollar. Wake up people! Only a few will benefit while our taxes goes sky high. The truth is coming out about how the funny numbers were used to misinform the world. Take off the green colored glasses and see it for what it is.

Global warming is the biggest scam to hit the world, esp America. It is a way to scam America out of trillions of dollars for some conceived wrong doing to other countries..we built ourselves out of nothing..time they did the same. I am tired of our money being shipped out to other countries that are in no better shape today than when we sent the first dollar. Wake up people! Only a few will benefit while our taxes goes sky high. The truth is coming out about how the funny numbers were used to misinform the world. Take off the green colored glasses and see it for what it is.Al Gore laughed all the way to the bank muttering to himself..I can't believe they bought it hook, line and sinker.