FSU and Russia Oil Supply – March 2012

Source: OPEC 3/31/2012, Location: Asia

Total FSU oil supply is forecast to grow by 0.12 mb/d in 2012 to average 13.37 mb/d in 2012, indicating a downward revision of 35 tb/d from the previous month. The downward revision has had an impact on Azerbaijan’s and Kazakhstan’s production outlooks in 2012. The FSU’s expected supply growth in 2012 is supported by an anticipated increase in Russia’s oil production, while Azerbaijan’s and Kazakhstan’s supply is seen to remain relatively steady. The risk and uncertainty associated with the FSU supply forecast are high, with regard to the share of total non-OPEC supply, on technical, political, decline and price related issues. On a quarterly basis, total oil supply from the FSU is expected to stand at 13.37 mb/d, 13.33 mb/d, 13.36 mb/d and 13.44 mb/d respectively. Other Europe’s oil output is expected to experience minor growth of 10 tb/d in 2012 and average 0.15 mb/d. China’s oil supply is forecast to increase by 40 tb/d in 2012 and average 4.17 mb/d.

Russian oil production is projected to increase by 70 tb/d in 2012 to average 10.34 mb/d in 2012, unchanged from the previous MOMR. There are limited major new developments in Russia that will come on stream in 2012. The Prirazlom oil project is anticipated to be the only major project that will start up during the year and support output. Russia’s oil supply will depend largely on operators’ ability to maintain output at mature producing areas. Capex is anticipated to remain strong in 2012 and support operators’ efforts to stabilize production. Furthermore, the ramp-ups of recently started projects are seen to support Russia’s oil supply in 2012. The Vankor, Verkhnechonskoye, and Korchagina oil fields are expected to add healthy volumes in 2012. According to preliminary data, Russia’s oil supply remained at a record high of 10.35 mb/d in February, indicating an increase of 125 tb/d over the same month a year ago. The risk to the forecast remains on the high side on technical, political, geological, economical and taxation issues. On a quarterly basis, Russian oil supply is seen to average 10.33 mb/d, 10.32 mb/d, 10.35 mb/d and 10.37 mb/d respectively.