Around this time last year, many conduit lenders were getting pretty excited.

The CMBS industry appeared to be back in full force, quoting rates that were competitive with Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac for the first time in years. Borrowers suddenly had more options, agency and balance-sheet lenders suddenly had more competition, and the industry as a whole was enticed by the prospect of more liquidity.

Yet, as soon as it came, it disappeared—rates came down too far, too fast, and investors pushed back. Then, capital markets shocks like the debt ceiling standoff and the Greek debt crisis continued to derail the CMBS industry’s momentum.

But now, through the first few months of 2012, CMBS pricing continues to fall.

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Will that momentum build to a point where conduits are again giving the GSEs a run for their money? “I’m not even sure if that’s the right way to look at it because the rates being offered by the GSEs right now are so good,” says Ben Thypin, a senior market analyst for New York-based Real Capital Analytics. “CMBS is lending on product the GSEs wouldn’t lend on—it may be pre-stabilized properties, or deals in secondary or tertiary markets.”

Ben Carlos Thypin

I am currently the co-founder of Quantierra, the world's first data driven real estate brokerage and investment manager. In my former life as Director of Market Analysis at Real Capital Analytics, I worked with press outlets large and small to provide them with great data and insightful commentary. Here are some of the results of this collaboration. For the rest, please check out the News Archive.