These threads always seem fated for a poor end, so maybe one specifically devoted to the latest Statistics Canada reports would be more successful.

I got an e-mail from Statistics Canada letting me know about a session of Chat with an Expert occurring this Friday from 12:30pm to 1:30pm EDT where they will be discussing the latest population projections for the provinces and territories which were released today. I thought there might be a few people on this site who would be interested. Unfortunately I won't be available myself.

There's something I've always wondered about these estimates. I imagine one of the sources of data are provincial health card records.

Legally, when you move you have to change your address on file with your provincial ministry within 6 days in Ontario (not sure about the time frame in other provinces), and if you move provinces you have to change your health card to your new province. But lots of people fail to do so. My ex, as of three months ago, has an Alberta health card even though he moved from Alberta to Ontario in 2008. I wonder if situations like this result in StatsCan putting people in the wrong province/city in these estimates.

interesting that even in the 1920s to 30s, Ontario has only been a bit larger than the west. plenty might have thought that the West would surpass Ontario by 1940 or 50!...but then Ontario started to grow much faster.

Its regions more so than provinces. Canada has 4 main "regions" (with more subregions, obviously), West, English Central, French Central, and East. Comparing them is only natural as they hold more relevance at that level instead of Saskatchewan vs. Ontario or something, Saskatoon or Regina are Saskatchewans largest cities but they are on the small side in terms of cities in Ontario. Comparing those cities to Toronto, Ottawa, Montreal, Quebec City, etc. is simply absurd as they are fundamentally on different scales.

These numbers really do highlight the westward movement of Canada's population. I say that not to confuse it with the move to the West but the slow steady movement westward. So growth of Ontario which slowly overtook the population of the provinces to the east and now the growth of the western provinces of Canada overtaking those east of Ontario and maybe overtaking Ontario in the future.

__________________
SHOFEAR- "The other goalie should have to turn in his man card. What a sorry display that was." - March 24, 2008

It's fascinating that when I was born, Quebec and Atlantic Canada (which makes no sense as a region other than as a representation of the "old Canada" for this analysis) had more population than Ontario.

I would have thought QC-Atl would have been overtaken by Ontario long before my birth.

I'm not sure what to make of PEI. Growing faster than Nova Scotia last quarter. Its population growth rate, if extrapolated to a province of Alberta's size, would be about 14,000 new people. If extrapolated to Ontario's size, it'd be about 46,000. (To put it another way, Ontario's population gain last quarter amounted to 1/348th of its population. PEI's was 1/293rd.)

Obviously the vast difference in scale means statistical anomalies are more likely in PEI's case, but the province posted consistently robust numbers like this until late 2012 (with the occasional weak quarter) when all of the Maritimes started flagging in a more serious way. Maybe they're picking up again; in any case, the numbers are so small that the the trend is lost—PEI is often among the fastest growing provinces, even as its Atlantic neighbours are the slowest.

1.
Postcensal estimates are based on the 2011 Census counts adjusted for census net undercoverage (CNU) (including adjustment for incompletely enumerated Indian reserves (IEIR)) and the components of demographic growth that occurred since that census. Intercensal estimates are produced using counts from two consecutive censuses adjusted for CNU (including (IEIR) and postcensal estimates.
2.
Quarterly population estimates: Quarter I = January 1; Quarter II = April 1; Quarter III = July 1; Quarter IV = October 1.
3.
Estimates are final intercensal and unadjusted for census net undercoverage prior to July 1, 1971. Estimates are final intercensal from July 1, 1971 to April 1, 2011, final postcensal for July 1, 2011, updated postcensal from October 1, 2011 to April 1, 2014 and preliminary postcensal from July 1, 2014.
4.
Population estimates for Northwest Territories and Nunavut are presented separately from July 1, 1991.
5.
Prior to July 1, 1991, only population estimates for Northwest Territories and Nunavut combined are available.
6.
The population growth, which is used to calculate population estimates, is comprised of the natural growth (CANSIM 53-0001), international migration (CANSIM 51-0037) and interprovincial migration (CANSIM 51-0017 and 51-0045).