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Sunday, April 28, 2013

recently rainless... (pm.28.apr.13)>

*Update @ 9:12pm... My temp is 66F (19.5C), which is very mild for this hour of the night. Humidity is only 44%, but there is an area of thickening clouds just to our west which could start to produce some showers later tonight, as this atmosphere continues to slowly destabilize. I think any rain we might get during the overnight hours would be very light.

We have mostly cloudy skies this evening, but sunshine was in control for the vast majority of the day, boosting my high temp at the top of McLeod Ganj very close to the warmest of the season (which was 76.8F/24.9C on 19 & 20 April). Humidity has remained low -- right around 40% -- and there has been no rainfall (not even a drop) for the second day in a row.

A large area of cloudiness has been expanding and thickening today across Pakistan, and is now spreading into most of Himachal and Jammu/Kashmir. This is happening in advance of an intensifying upper-level disturbance over central Asia which is expected to drop southeastward and eventually sweep across Kashmir during the middle of the week. Although we've been enjoying dry weather since early Friday afternoon, it looks like the chance of showers and thunderstorms will be gradually on the increase once again, especially between Monday and Wednesday. If I had to pinpoint the best chance of rain, I'd say Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday afternoon -- but just be prepared for rapid changes during the next few days and plan accordingly.

The good news is that there is more and more evidence with each run of the computer model data suggesting that significantly drier air will settle into northern India on Thursday, and stick around for at least a few days. Although April 2013 hasn't been anywhere close to intolerable, it would be nice to see some extended periods of sunshine and summer-like temperatures in our near future...