Short the Greed, Buy the Panic

NVDA watch

Been long since I traded options, but every now and then there are some high “R” plays out there. Bought puts in NVDA ahead of earnings.

A rare play on crypto and auto, as I believe the stock is overpriced due to crypto traders. Good company, but also believe guidance is priced in, so I’ll ignore the analyst upgrades ahead of earnings (310).

Weak floor at 242.66 with trickle up from 7/31 to date. This run-up is easier to take out (-6%).

6-month chart shows true floor at 213.70 (-20%) so 225 (-15%) is the natural hedge for longs, so I’ll take it as the spec short play with a target. Subtracting the ask price gives us 223.14 as expected target post-earnings.