The first frame of the animation shows where the bird can find a suitable climate today (based on data from 2000). The next three frames predict where this bird’s suitable climate may shift in the future—one frame each for 2020, 2050, and 2080.

Encounters with Royal Terns are typically coastal: a tightly bunched group roosting on a barrier beach, a noisy foraging flock just beyond the breakers, or a few patrolling the back bays. Long threatened by coastal development and increasingly at risk from major storms, the Royal Tern now has to contend with climate change. Audubon's climate model, focusing only on climate space in winter, shows both an overall decline of favorable environments and a substantial range shift. Heavy losses of climatically favorable areas along the Gulf Coast may be partially offset by newly created winter environments in the Desert Southwest—but only if this coastal species can quickly adapt to new habitats inland.

Species Range Change from 2000 to 2080

The size of the circles roughly indicates the species’ range size in 2000 (left) and 2080 (right).

The amount of overlap between the 2000 circle and the 2080 circle indicates how stable the range will be geographically. Lots of overlap means the bird’s range doesn’t shift much. No overlap means the species will leave its current range entirely.