Andrea Shorter, City and County of San Francisco Commission on the Status of Women commissioner, speaks in a conference room at the Department on the Status of Women on Monday, February 13, 2012 in San Francisco, Calif.

Photo: Lea Suzuki, The Chronicle

Andrea Shorter, City and County of San Francisco Commission on the...

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Suspended Sheriff Ross Mirkarimi and his attorney David Waggoner arrive at an Ethics Commission meeting on Tuesday, Sept. 11, 2012, in San Francisco.

Photo: Noah Berger, Special To The Chronicle

Suspended Sheriff Ross Mirkarimi and his attorney David Waggoner...

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Sheriff Ross Mirkarimi leaves City Hall Wednesday, Oct. 10, 2012, a day after he was reinstated to his position by the board of supervisors.

Buoyed by the outcome of two San Francisco supervisor races that defied conventional wisdom, a group of women with major financial backing said it is preparing the groundwork for a recall of Sheriff Ross Mirkarimi and plans to make it official next week.

"It's looking like yes," said political consultant Andrea Shorter, who is leading the effort. "The outcry is definitely loud and clear. We just cannot have a sheriff who was convicted of domestic violence."

Last month Shorter and political consultant Joyce Newstat formed an independent expenditure committee, San Francisco Women for Accountability, designed to defeat Supervisor Christina Olague in District Five for her controversial vote to reinstate Mirkarimi.

Mirkarimi pleaded guilty in March to a misdemeanor count of false imprisonment related to a New Year's Eve argument in which he grabbed and bruised his wife's arm. Mayor Ed Lee suspended him, but failed last month to get the nine of 11 votes he needed at the Board of Supervisors to make the removal permanent. In addition to Olague, Supervisors John Avalos, David Campos and Jane Kim voted to give Mirkarimi his job back.

Shorter said her group's work was instrumental in what appears to be Olague's resounding and somewhat surprising defeat by challenger London Breed. Nearly 90,000 votes still need to be counted citywide.

Decisive win

Supervisor Eric Mar won decisively over challenger David Lee in District One despite being outspent and the frequent target of independent expenditure committees working to get Lee elected. Mar voted to remove Mirkarimi permanently from office, which Shorter said likely contributed to his win and also helped convince her group to mount a recall.

"The results last night were definitely indicative of the people's will, and they were encouraging," she said of Olague's defeat and Mar's win.

Mirkarimi didn't respond to requests for comment, but David Waggoner, an attorney who represented the sheriff in his successful effort to get reinstated, condemned the idea of a recall.

"Sheriff Mirkarimi is focused on making the San Francisco Sheriff's Department the best in the nation," Waggoner said. "A divisive recall effort is the last thing San Francisco needs to heal and move forward."

Shorter's group knows it has a daunting challenge, one that is likely to cost at least $500,000 and take up to a year. A June 2013 special election would be the earliest date for a recall election. It also could be part of the regular ballot in November 2013.

In the interim, recall proponents would need to get their petition approved by the Department of Elections, elections chief John Arntz said. Once the petition is approved, recall proponents would have 160 days to gather more than 50,000 valid signatures - 10 percent of the city's 503,258 registered voters.

Under the City Charter, if Mirkarimi is recalled, the mayor would appoint his replacement. That person would serve until a successor is picked in the next election that is at least 120 days after the office was vacated.

Recalls hard to mount

Recall elections are rarely successful because they're expensive and take a lot of work to qualify for the ballot. But political analysts said recall organizers already have the big advantages of deep pockets, manpower and a lot of public awareness about the Mirkarimi saga.

"Clearly that's not a problem here," said Corey Cook, a political science professor at the University of San Francisco. "It wouldn't be a difficult case to make to the voters about why he should be recalled."

The women's group also has some prominent supporters. Kim has said she would support a recall effort despite voting to reinstate Mirkarimi. Supervisor Malia Cohen, who voted to remove him, also said she would support a recall.

A voice in favor

Kathy Black is the director of La Casa de Las Madres, a domestic violence shelter, and has been an outspoken critic of Mirkarimi's throughout the past year. Black said she would not be officially involved in the campaign, but would speak out on its behalf.

"The city and county of San Francisco and its citizens deserve a sheriff who's not currently on probation for a domestic violence-related conviction and going to batterers intervention," she said.

However, Mayor Ed Lee kept his distance from a recall effort.

"I have always felt that the discussion about a recall was something I could not get involved in because it is distractive," he said.

It doesn't appear Mirkarimi would have much support from Campos or Avalos. They said they'd probably stay neutral.

"I've already spent months of my life anxiously awaiting a vote that I knew would upset everyone in San Francisco, and I'm not really looking forward to going through that again," Avalos said. "I would probably stay out of it."

Success predicted

Political consultant David Latterman said he thinks that if a Mirkarimi recall qualifies for the ballot and has a strong campaign behind it, it would be successful with voters - partly because progressives may not continue to back the sheriff after Olague's defeat.

"Is the left really going to go to bat for this guy?" Latterman asked. "They just did, and they got pounded. They got vilified."

Supervisor Sean Elsbernd, who is termed out in January, won't be around to weather more Mirkarimi drama. But he said Mirkarimi should be "very, very concerned."

"A recall is one hell of an uphill climb," he said. "But my gut tells me I wouldn't want to be Ross right now."