Week 10 Final Thoughts & Investment Advice

It’s November, which means the silly season has arrived.

There’s more of a sense of urgency for bowl games, College Football Playoff positioning, and for coaches, jobs, jobs, jobs.

In September we try to figure out what we’ve got, and then October we get into a groove. In November, we just try to survive and advance as teams get 1) weary and banged up, 2) slightly desperate, and 3) focused or unfocused depending on the carrot that’s at the end of the stick.

And now, there’s also the weather factor.

Western Michigan is absolutely 6.5 points better than Central Michigan, but in 35 degrees and driving rain, the Bronco passing game stopped on Wednesday night and the Chippewas pulled off the upset.

Meanwhile, the weather caused the point total to sink like a stone – and then the two teams combined to blast out 63 points to blow it away.

So good luck with all of this. I’m here to try to help.

This is all just for spits, giggles, and entertainment purposes only, however, just in case you dabble …

Lane Kiffin did it. He took a mediocre Florida Atlantic program and turned into a bowl team and a likely Conference USA champion. If you don’t think he sees the big gig that’s coming, you’re crazy. Marshall just lost at home to FIU by 11, and FAU is much, much better than the Butchers.

Memphis might put up 60 on Tulsa. That’s not trying to make a little joke, that’s yes, Memphis might score 60 on a Tulsa defense that’s been better over the last month, but still isn’t all that great. I know the 79 point total is a lot, but again, the Tigers might take care of most of that by themselves.

After a total dud against Oregon, there’s no way the Utah defense doesn’t come out and rock at home against UCLA. It doesn’t matter what Josh Rosen’s status is, UCLA can’t stop the run, it can’t run the ball at all, and Utah is desperate for a good performance. | Utah vs, UCLA Preview

Oh yes, you burned me, Kansas. All of a sudden the offense that couldn’t do a thing right found a passing game to cover against Kansas State. Never, ever, EVER chase a past miss and pick for spite.

The Clemson defense is just too good. NC State’s proud and talented defensive front bounces back from the Notre Dame nightmare, but the O will blow its chances early, and the Tigers will take over late. | Clemson vs. NC State Preview

Mommmmmm, do I have to pick Purdue-Illinois? The Illini might be awful, but they tend to keep games close partially because teams don’t feel the need to take too many chances (cough, Wisconsin, COUGH). Purdue’s offense isn’t there yet – take the chance that this isn’t the breakout week. | Illinois vs. Purdue Preview

It doesn’t make any sense, but I keep falling for Ole Miss. This Kentucky team seems to win games by the skin of its teeth, but this week it gets tagged by a Rebel team with a wee bit more offense. | Ole Miss vs. UK Preview

Ohhhhhh, no you don’t, Florida State. I know you have a signed document, but it’s not signed by a Notary Public. You’re going to pull the ball away from me again after I assumed pride would kick in and you’d show up against Boston College. Syracuse and the points – until FSU proves it wants to play football again. | SU vs. FSU Preview

Pick For Spite No. 2 this week … Northwestern hosed me the last few weeks – how did you beat Michigan State after getting hit for a bajillion passing yards? But this time, I’ve got it. At home, Nebraska is still trying, and Tanner Lee can throw. The Huskers stay alive for a bowl bid. | NU vs. Neb Preview

If you can figure out how Iowa is going to score more than a few points on Ohio State, I might buy into the idea that this isn’t going to be a brutal blowout. OSU will have to biblical flood-like wet the bed to lose this game. The Iowa O just isn’t good enough. | OSU vs. Iowa Preview

If you can figure out what Iowa State does well, I might buy into the idea that West Virginia isn’t going to bounce back from its disaster against Oklahoma State. I know the Cyclones find a way, and I know this is a magical year. I also know that Will Grier is better than he was last week. | ISU vs. WVU Preview

I HATE that Miami is getting points at home. I hate you, I hate you, I hate you, I hate you, I hate you, and yet, I find myself strangely attracted to you, Virginia Tech. If I like you to win, I don’t care about the 2.5. | VT vs. Miami Preview

I spent way too much time this week trying to figure out whether or not the Rutgers of a few weeks ago was going to rear its ugly head again and pull off shocking wins. Maryland’s defense is just too awful, and it’s on the road, so … take the Terps anyway. No, Rutgers. No, wait, Maryland. Definitely Maryland. | Maryland vs. Rutgers Preview

What is that saying, if someone tells you who they are, believe them? Virginia, if you’re going to keep playing like that, then I’m just going to assume that Georgia Tech will beat you by a few touchdowns. | GT vs. UVa Preview

This is so painful. Boise State is so much better than Nevada, but the Wolf Pack are keeping everything close lately. Last week against Utah State was the first time Boise State beat anyone by more than 20, but through gritted teeth … Nevada getting the 21.5.

It’s a freshman college class exercise in argumentation and persuasion. Take one thing you believe to your very core to be true, and then write the case for the other side. I think Colorado sort of stinks, and I think Arizona State is pretty good. But Colorado has an offense, and, shockingly, ASU doesn’t. Give me the points. | ASU vs. Colorado Preview

Pick For Spite No. 3 this week … Actually, I should’ve known better. Who takes Coastal Carolina -8 points against air? Texas State rolled by the Chanticleers, so I should learn my lesson, but … New Mexico State -10 on the road vs. a bad Bobcat team?! Well pour me another.

Never mess with a rivalry game with a close spread, and never mess with an in-state Group of Five rivalry game with a close spread – Central Michigan vs. Western Michigan should’ve taught you that. Georgia State is by far, the better team and should blow past the -4 with ease – if this wasn’t an in-state Group of Five rivalry game. Or, screw it, and take the better team with the low spread over a miserable Georgia Southern squad.

ULM, I’m done with my weekly problem of always thinking you’re going to get the job done. Oh, who am I kidding. I’m sorry, ULM. I could never stay mad at you. If I can pick UMass to beat Appalachian State, I can take ULM with the points at home. Give me those 9.5.

If you really, really, really have to … Old Dominion. It might have lost six straight, but it should’ve. North Carolina won’t go bowling, but the other five teams the Monarchs lost to will. Charlotte will very, very much not go bowling.

Don’t ask me to tell you what my rationale is, because I don’t have any. I just think Tennessee is somehow going to slink through this finishing kick, go bowling, and Butch Jones will keep his gig. John Kelly will run wild in the win over Southern Miss. | USM vs. Tennessee Preview

Mississippi State game, schmississippi state game. Put it this way – if someone is giving a decent Texas A&M team more than two touchdowns at home in November, it would be rude to ignore them. | A&M vs. Auburn Preview

Very, very quietly, Air Force is on a roll with a three-game winning streak. The offense has put up 45 points in three of the last four games, and now it’s about to do just that against Army. The 55.5 point total is like handing you Christmas and a tax break.

Everyone keeps waiting for Wisconsin to whiff, and if it does, it’s not going to happen this week. Indiana’s defense will be fine for a while, but the Hoosier offense might get shut down to a stop. The Hoosiers will throw well, but they’ll also turn it over several times. | UW vs. IU Preview

I keep thinking Cincinnati is good, and it’s really, really not. I keep thinking Tulane is good, and it’s really, really not. I get that UC has lost more, and the Green Wave are overdue to bust out the option again, but … fine. I’ll hold my nose and go with Tulane -5.5 at home.

Georgia is going to score 31 points. The question is whether or not you think South Carolina can score the eight to cover. This Gamecock team has a weird way of mucking things up and bringing good teams down to its level. USC vs. UGA Preview

UMass been so good to mee-ya … UMass been so good to mee-ya … You know you make me want to PICK! … against Miss State, baby … PICK! .. throw my hands up and .. PICK! … not to cover though … PICK! … but getting 32 … PICK! …. WHOOOOOOO. Heyyyyyay Heyyyyay. | UMass vs. Miss State Preview

What did I tell you about UCF? No, really, we’re not going to go through this again. WHAT DID I TELL YOU ABOUT UCF? Until you’re told otherwise, you take them and give up the points. Now, give me that Kit Kat.

Western Kentucky is bad this year at the playing college football thing. So is Vanderbilt, but it’s bad at a better level. The Commodores roll at home. | Vanderbilt vs. WKU Preview

Not only will Texas Tech beat Kansas State, it’s going to do it easily. The Wildcats can’t stop good passing games. No, really, they just gave up close to 500 yards to Kansas. | TT vs. K-State Preview

Warning: I have been very, very hit or miss on Texas this year. I just can’t get a correct read on this team, but I think TCU will win by more than touchdown, and I think it’ll be low scoring. If I’m right, I’ll accept your basket of mini-muffins and scones. If I’m wrong, I wasn’t here. | TCU vs. Texas Preview

North Texas has won four of its last five games and it’s getting points against a flaky Louisiana Tech team that struggled against Rice. No one struggles against Rice. Rice’s mom doesn’t struggle against Rice.

OHHHHHHH, no you don’t, Oregon. I don’t even believe you for a second. Washington. Big. I don’t care about the Duck pass rush, I don’t care that the Dawgs haven’t faced anyone who can run. Washington hates Oregon, and that’s about to come through in the stomping. | UW vs. OU Preview

Normally, you’d assume that the SEC team would take it easy on the Sun Belt squad on paycheck day. Arkansas is about to unload on Coastal Carolina and get its money’s worth. | Arkansas vs. CCU Preview

Minnesota is overdue for one of those stupid Minnesota games when it plays out of its butt – but that might not come until the very end vs. Wisconsin. The problem is the Michigan defense that’s not going to let that happen – at least to a Gopher offense that can’t throw. | Michigan vs. Minnesota Preview

76, 86, 214. I don’t care what you’re putting the Oklahoma-Oklahoma State total at, I want over, and I’ll push it past ten. The line is 76, and these two quarterbacks and offenses will have few problems getting there in a fantastic shootout. | OU vs. OSU Preview

Notre Dame just doesn’t seem like the type of team that’s going to look ahead. Miami might be coming up, but it’ll first take care of Wake Forest without a problem. The Demon Deacons can get into the backfield, but that might not matter too much against a ground game that gets past the line so fast. | Wake Forest vs. ND Preview

The mere fact that you’re considering taking UAB -10.5 over anyone should be a signal that you need to drastically alter your belief system, life choices, and pretty much everything you’re about. But considering it’s against Rice, it also means you’re probably right.

Take a guess that the South Alabama that beat ULM and Troy is closer to the truth than the one that lost to Idaho and Georgia State. ULM beat Louisiana at Louisiana – USA -5.5 vs. the Ragin’ Cajuns has gone up, but it still seems fine.

Yeah, Utah State just got blown up by Boise State, but New Mexico has been awful. Both teams need this, and I know +4 isn’t much, but it’s a sweetener for an Aggie team that should win this outright.

No, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no. UNLV is way too flaky to assume anything, even after shocking Fresno State on the road. If I have to, I’ll go with the Rebels -7.5 over Hawaii, but no, no, no, no, no, no, stay away, no, no, no.

Colorado State hasn’t beaten anyone who can play. Wyoming might not be all that great, and it’s not going to come up with the 416 takeaways it generated in the blowout win over New Mexico last week, but at home getting 3.5, ride on you crazy cowboy.

It’s the right pick, even if it doesn’t work. FIU has won five of its last six games and has rolled at home. Now it’s getting points in Miami against UTSA? Again, even if you miss the shot, you’re getting a great look at the rim. Speaking of the Roadrunners …

UTSA just beat a winless and sad UTEP by 17. Now Middle Tennessee is giving away 17.5 to Middle Tennessee. Just … be careful. UTEP can’t score a lick, but it covered that number in three of the last four games, and the Blue Raiders have lost three of their last four.

You might be selling, Mizzou, but I ain’t buyin’. Randy Shannon and Malik Zaire will be a spark for a weird and depressing Florida team getting a field goal on the road. | Florida vs. Mizzou Preview

It’s just not in my DNA to give LSU three touchdowns. I don’t care that Alabama is better, and I don’t care that there’s a chance LSU doesn’t score. LSU doesn’t get three touchdowns. Period. End of story. No question, Now let’s go take a steam.

But … this Bama team seems to jump all over any chance it gets to feel disrespected. If Alabama was No. 1, I’m taking LSU and sleeping well. Alabama is No. 2, so … | Bama vs. LSU Preview

Okay, Penn Staters, here you go. I might have picked Ohio State to win, and I might have gotten the Iowa pick right ATS a few weeks ago, but for all of you who seem to enjoy pointing out that I always pick against Penn State … you win. The Nittany Lions bounce back without a problem against a Michigan State team that can’t seem to run. | PSU vs. MSU Preview

San Jose State just gave up 41 to a horrendous BYU offense. San Jose State just lost by 21 to a horrendous BYU team. San Jose State is giving San Diego State 24. You know what to do with this.

Cal doesn’t have much of a defense outside of that one performance against Washington State, but nope … Oregon State isn’t going to start rolling now. The Bears are only giving away seven? And they’re at home? Lordy, Lordy we’re eatin’ biscuits tonight!!! | Cal vs. OSU Preview

Stanford just isn’t that good. That doesn’t mean it can’t rise up and rock with K.J. Costello taking over the quarterbacking duties, but there isn’t enough of a pass rush to slow down Wazzu in Pullman. Bryce Love, no Bryce Love, Wazzu wins and stays alive in the Pac-12 race. | Wazzu vs. Stanford Preview

USC is a different team at home. The one big concern against Arizona, though, besides Khalil Tate and his pace to run for over 2,500 yards – if he had done this from the start of the season, of course – is a secondary that picks off a whole lot of passes. It’ll be a fun shootout, but Mr. Darnold has to be extra-super careful with the ball. | USC vs. Arizona Preview

BTW, that 73 total? Like it’s not even there.

UConn giving away 23 points to a wounded USF team coming off a loss. That’s a lot to be giving away considering the Bulls are going on the road and haven’t scored more than 34 in any of the last three games. The UConn run D isn’t that bad. Long-winded way of saying take the double-digit home dog, but you don’t have to love it.

And Finally …

Yeah, East Carolina might have beaten BYU, and yeah, Houston doesn’t score a lot, but the Pirates lost their previous three games before the Cougar win by 42, 24 and 30. Houston might have just beaten USF, but it doesn’t blowout anyone. the 24.5 seems like it should be easy, but this Houston team is challenged when it comes to scoring.