(Matthew
is predicted to track along the Eastern Seaboard from Central Florida
through Georgia as a major hurricane on Friday and Saturday. After
this first predicted strike as a major hurricane, long range model
guidance is indicating that Matthew could re-curve. Such a path would
bring Matthew repeatedly over the near record warm waters of the Gulf
Stream and possibly produce a second landfall in Florida by Wednesday
of next week. Image source:The
National Hurricane Center.)

Matthew
— A Record-Breaking Storm in a Record Hot World

This
powerful hurricane has consistently fed on sea surface temperatures
in the range of 29 to 30 degrees Celsius (84 to 86 Fahrenheit). These
waters are 1-3 degrees Celsius above 20th Century averages and are at
or near record hot levels. Furthermore, added heat at the ocean
surface has led to greater evaporation which has contributed to 75
percent relative humidity readings at the middle levels of the
atmosphere.

Such
high levels of heat and atmospheric moisture are not normal. They
provide an excessive amount of fuel for powering intense hurricanes
like Matthew. And all this heat and moisture is now made more readily
available by a record hot global environment resulting from the
ever-rising levels of greenhouse gasses in the Earth’s atmosphere
due to fossil fuel burning.

Maintaining
Major Hurricane Intensity Despite Making Landfall Twice

Yesterday
this heat-fueled storm vented its fury first on Haiti and then on
Cuba. But as the rains fell at rates of up to 5 inches per hour and
as the winds howled in at 145 mph, the mountainous terrain of these
two islands took its toll on Matthew’s circulation. According
to Dr. Jeff Masters,
Matthew’s eye wall was disrupted and partially collapsed as the
storm tracked over rugged eastern Cuba. As a result, its peak
intensity dropped off from 145 mph early Tuesday to around 115 mph or
a minimal category 3 storm during the morning on Wednesday.

(Near
record warm surface waters in the Caribbean Sea and in the Atlantic
Ocean off the US East Coast in the range of 1-3 degrees Celsius above
average combined with very high atmospheric moisture levels to fuel
Matthew’s unprecedented intensity. Such conditions are consistent
with those produced by human-caused climate change. Factors that
provide more energy for storms to feed on when they do form. Note
that the readings depicted in the map are departures from average —
with red through orange, yellow and white representing above-normal
temperatures. Image source: Earth
Nullschool.)

Matthew
Restrengthening

But
Matthew has since re-emerged as a major hurricane over very warm
waters near the Bahamas and it is again drawing on a nearly
unprecedented supply of ocean heat and atmospheric moisture. As a
result, the storm is rapidly re-strengthening. Thunderstorms around
the center are rising again to towering heights. Pressures are
dropping and peak wind speeds are starting to pick up. By tomorrow
morning, it’s entirely possible that Matthew will have returned to
Category 4 status — boasting a very large circulation and sustained
winds in excess of 130 mph as it starts to threaten the Florida
coast.

As
of 5 PM EST on Wednesday the storm had already regained some
intensity — hitting 120 mph maximum sustained winds. Model guidance
puts the storm near or over the Coast of Central and Northern Florida
by Friday morning with some models (ECMWF) showing a minimum central
pressure near 940 to 945 mb by that time — representing a very
powerful storm with winds possibly again exceeding 145 mph.

(Rapid
bombification? Matthew re-intensifies as it tracks toward the Bahamas
and Florida. Very dangerous situation emerging with swift,
significant increases in strength possible. Image source:
the National
Hurricane Center.)

Matthew’s
Predicted Track Could Bring Major Hurricane Conditions to Numerous
East Coast Communities

Matthew
is predicted to run parallel to the coast, with part of its
circulation remaining over water. As a result, the storm could
maintain intensity even as it drives hurricane force winds and strong
storm surges into multiple cities and towns along the coast.

The
subtropical ridge over the western Atlantic is still strong, and the
flow pattern around this ridge should continue to steer the hurricane
toward the northwest during the next day or two with no significant
change in forward speed. After that time, the ridge will shift
eastward, allowing Matthew to move northward very near or over the
north Florida east coast, and then near or to the east of the Georgia
and South Carolina coasts.

Such
a path would tend to keep Matthew strong for a longer period of time.
In addition, movement along the coastline could result in severe
impacts ranging over a very large region — not just focusing on a
particular section of the shore, but running along the oceanfront for
hundreds of miles. In the worst case scenario for Matthew, diverse
regions from Cape Canaveral to Jacksonville to Savannah all
experience significant hurricane impacts including major hurricane
winds and
severe storm surge flooding.

(Hurricane
Matthew has the potential to put multiple communities from Florida
through Georgia under severe storm surge flooding. The above map
shows a worst case scenario (1 in 10 probability) where most of St.
Augustine, FL — a city of about 120,000 people — is under 1-9
feet of water. This potential is repeated in the NHS model on up and
down the Florida and Georgia coastlines. Image source: The
National Hurricane Center.)

Matthew
Could Hit Florida Twice

But
if the current forecast isn’t rough enough, the long range looks
even worse. Model guidance is now starting to form a consensus that
Matthew may not immediately head out to sea following its first
encounter with the US East Coast. In fact, models like GFS, ECMWF and
CMC are indicating that Matthew may loop back, possibly even striking
Florida a second time by Wednesday (GFS). Though highly uncertain,
the possibility of Matthew returning to the warm water environment
that so greatly added to its strength initially, before hitting
Florida a second time, was enough to draw some pretty
strong words from experts like Dr. Jeff Masters over at Weather
Underground earlier today.

Dr.
Masters noted:

Thanks
to my advancing years and a low-stress lifestyle that features daily
meditation, there’s not much that can move me to profanity—except
the occasional low-skill driver who endangers my life on the road.
But this morning while looking at the latest weather model runs,
multiple very bad words escaped my lips. I’ve been a meteorologist
for 35 years, and am not easily startled by a fresh set of model
results: situations in 2005 and 1992 are the only ones that come to
mind. However, this morning’s depiction by our top models—the
GFS, European, and UKMET—of Matthew missing getting picked up by
the trough to its north this weekend and looping back to potentially
punish The Bahamas and Florida next week was worthy of profuse
profanity.

Such
a loop back and second hit to Florida and the Bahamas is highly
uncertain at this time. However, given all the heat and moisture
available, there’s a possibility that Matthew could re-strengthen
along such a path afterthe
significant wind shear predicted Sunday and Monday subsides
— bringing forward the possibility, however unlikely, of the same
storm striking Florida and the Bahamas twice as a major hurricane
over the course of 5-7 days.

It
would be a very odd and unfortunate event if it did happen. One that
would have been fueled by all the climate change related hot water
and near record moisture readings sitting at the ocean surface and
rising on up into the middle levels of the atmosphere. But given the
storm now blowing up over the Bahamas this evening, a possible first
strike is already looking rough enough.

UPDATES
TO FOLLOW

Links/Statements:

Note:
This is a potentially highly dangerous developing weather situation.
Coastal interests from the Bahamas through Florida, Georgia and the
Carolinas should stay abreast of forecasts provided by the National
Hurricane Center and
stay tuned to local weather statements and/or possible
evacuation/emergency storm shelter information.