The 2010 MLB Quarter-Pole Report, Part 2: What We Know, What We Don't

For anyone else just waking up from a six-week nap, we’ve got you covered. We’ve even paid close enough attention to make a few keen observations, which we will relate to you now in a segment we’re calling "What We Know, What We Don’t Know, and Dear Ken Griffey Jr., We’re Just Kidding You—You Are The Best. Sincerely, GQ." Enjoy.

What We Know

Great men will always be remembered. When Hall of Fame pitcher Robin Roberts passed away earlier this month, the Phillies decided to honor him with a No. 36 patch on their uniforms. The Tigers are doing the same with an "EH" patch—and an "EH" flag—for legendary broadcaster Ernie Harwell. (They also brought Harwell’s casket to the ballpark for a semi-creepy viewing. Alas, no word from the Red Sox on when they plan unveil a patch to honor the memory of David Ortiz.

The Rays will not be trading Rafael Soriano at the All-Star Break. In the off-season, the always-frugal Rays splurged on a one-year deal (worth $7.25 million) for closer Rafael Soriano. With free agency looming at season’s end for Carl Crawford and Carlos Pena, many speculated that the Rays would become big-time sellers in July, should they fall out of contention. Not gonna happen. At 28-11, they’re holding down first place in the AL East, and the only thing they’ll be selling off this summer are Joe Maddon’s formerly game-used hoodies.

You don’t have to be a starter to rack up wins. Take, for instance, Washington Nationals reliever Tyler Clippard, who’s proving that you just have to enter the game at opportune times, maybe allow the tying run to score, and then vulture a ’W’ when your offense plates the go-ahead run. Clippard is tied for the league-lead in wins, with a 7-3 record, and yet he has blown saves in four of his last seven outings, and picked up losses in two of the others.

Zack Greinke is going to have a hell of a time trying to win back-to-back Cy Young awards. He’s actually pitched beautifully in 2010, with a 2.72 ERA and a WHIP of 1.07 so far. Alas, he doesn’t have Tyler Clippard’s luck. Or a bullpen. Which is why the Royals’ ace didn’t win his first game until last week. And that tends to be a problem for Cy Young voters, whose mentality goes something like this: "Me like wins. Me like wins now!"

Stephen Strasburg is no minor leaguer. The most hyped MLB pitching prospect in decades is living up to the billing so far. In 34 innings at AA and AAA, Strasburg has fanned 40 batters while walking only eight. In his last start, he pitched six innings of no-hit ball. Ironically, his success presents something of a dilemma for the Nats, who have been the NL East’s surprise team so far. Will they bring the kid up to fortify their smoke-and-mirrors rotation (and risk speeding up his arbitration eligibility) or will they leave him to dominate the nether-leagues and let their 2010 playoff hopes fizzle out? That part we don’t know. What we do know: if the Nats called up Strasburg tomorrow, he’d be their best pitcher.

The hottest divisional race will be in the NL West. At most, you can write off one team—the Diamondbacks. The surprising first-place Padres have been the beneficiaries of some pitching luck (Jon Garland’s ERA is 1.88 while his FIP stands at 4.34, for example) but the team’s young hurlers are almost as impressive as San Francisco’s, which might have the best rotation the majors, with a rejuvenated—and totally legit—Barry Zito plus an emerging Jonathan Sanchez. Meanwhile, the Dodgers have finally started playing to their potential, and the Rockies (most experts’ preseason pick) are creeping right around .500, despite having a positive run differential for most of the season. Look for these teams to jockey for position all summer long.

In the AL, Baltimore, Kansas City, Cleveland, and Chicago are already playing only for pride (and it’s not going well). It’s not the Orioles’ fault that they share a division with the two best teams in the AL, the Yankees and the Rays, but they do, and their young stars—Brian Matusz, Matt Weiters, Adam Jones, Nick Markakis, and co.—aren’t quite ready to run with the big boys. Similarly, Detroit and Minnesota have already distanced themselves as the class of the Central. Of these teams, Chicago is the most likely to prove us wrong, if Jake Peavy can lead the staff as an ace and Gavin Floyd can lower his ERA from 7.00 (which we won’t completely rule out; his FIP is 3.92).

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What We Don’t Know

How much longer Livan Hernandez’s sell-your-soul-type luck can keep up. The crafty Cuban veteran is third in the National League with a 1.46 ERA. His FIP, on the other hand, is an irreconcilable 4.90. FIP, which represent a gauge of everything a pitcher is directly responsible for, like walks, strikeouts, and homeruns, is believed to be the direction an ERA will ultimately trend. Two telling stats about Hernandez, whose K/9 is a meager 3.10, are the BABIP (or batting average on balls in play) of opposing hitters—an unheard-of .197—and the rate at which he is currently leaving men on base: 98.6 percent. His career average? 72.3 percent.

When Jamie Moyer will throw his last pitch. Moyer—the oldest active player in baseball—became the oldest pitcher ever to throw a complete game shutout when he blanked the Braves on May 7. The soft-tossing 47-year-old is keeping batters just off-balance enough to string together another solid year. His ERA won’t impress the ladies at 4.57, but his WHIP is a surprising 1.10, and he’s pitched at least six innings each time he’s taken the mound. After seven starts, his record stands at 5-2. Zach Greinke, eat your heart out.

How Mets fans put up with Carlos Beltran. After missing more than two months of the 2009 season, Carlos Beltran opted for knee surgery in January, about a month before Spring Training, with an eye on an early May return. After lingering pain and missing target date after target date, Beltran finally began limited baseball activities last week. Will he be back by June? By the All-Star Break? By Labor Day? God only knows. Are Mets fans still pleased with his seven-year, $119 million contract? Nu-uh. Am I glad I drafted him in the 12th round of my fantasy draft? God no.

How long two converted relievers can lead the American League in ERA. Well, to be fair, Phil Hughes, the current ERA king (1.38), spent most of his baseball life as a starter before serving in the Yankees bullpen last season. C.J. Wilson (1.48), on the other hand, hadn’t started a game for the Rangers at any level since 2005. Both men have FIPs above their ERAs, which is to be expected, but well within the realm of respectability: 2.51 for Hughes and 3.12 for Wilson. Of the two, Wilson seems more likely to drop from the league leaders. He strikes out fewer batters than Hughes, and is yet to serve up an ERA-inflating long ball.

Whether any major league club can afford the services of Albert Pujols. At the end of April, Ryan Howard signed a five-year, $125 million dollar extension with the Phillies. And despite some laughable trade rumors weeks earlier, no one believes the two first basemen are equally valuable. According to Braves manager Bobby Cox, if Howard’s worth $25 million, Pujols is worth $50 million. According to FanGraphs.com, which translates WAR (or wins over replacement) into monetary value, Pujols has been worth $138.3 million since 2006 while Howard has been worth $79.1 million—a ratio of 1.75:1 that would put Pujols at $43.7 million a year. At least Cardinals fans can thank the good lord that Scott Boras won’t be involved in the negotiations.

Who will win the NL Wild Card. Maybe that sounds obvious, but the truth is, every single NL team is still in the running (save for the Pirates). The Phillies seem destined for the NL East crown, but the other four clubs in the division are within two games of each other and poised to remain competitive (assuming the Mets can get off their current snide). The other cellar-dwellers are the Diamondbacks—who are scoring a ton of runs—and the Astros, who have the opposite problem as Arizona: they need to score. They’re certainly not favorites, but getting Lance Berkman back in the lineup should go a long way in turning around a team-wide, early-season slump.

What kind of magic beans the Nationals, Reds, and Pirates are buying. As we mentioned above, the Pirates are the only team we’re willing to write off from playoff contention. Their record stands at 17-22, but they’ve actually played much, much worse than that, with a -102 run differential—by far the worst in the majors. The Nationals and the Reds are each at .500 or above but have similarly deceptive records, with run differentials that imply a significant drop-off as summer approaches. We’ll label this a hard hat area—watch out for falling teams!

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