Rogue states threaten GOP calendar

In the final days before states submit their primary and caucus plans to the Republican National Committee, the GOP is sweating bullets over the possibility that a gang of rogue states could still wreak havoc on the 2012 presidential nominating process.

One state, Arizona, has already announced that it will violate RNC rules and hold its primary on February 28 – a full week before joint RNC-Democratic National Committee rules permit states to do so. Michigan’s legislature is also moving toward scheduling its vote for the same date.

Story Continued Below

Then there’s Florida, a repeat offender when it comes to calendar mischief, which has empaneled a committee to choose an election date that’s expected to fall before the RNC-sanctioned date of March 6.

The RNC cutoff for states to schedule their elections is October 1—and some states may even blow that deadline.

“Florida and perhaps other states feel with their size that they should have greater impact than they’ve had in the past,” said former Florida Gov. Bob Martinez, who was named to the state’s primary commission Friday. “To have greater impact, you have to go earlier.”

Georgia Secretary of State Brian Kemp, who has the power to select a date for his state’s primary, said Georgia may also decide to join the small throng crowding the early end of the 2012 calendar.

“I’ve been following what Arizona did and I’m still following what other states like Michigan and Florida may do. That certainly could have an influence on us,” Kemp told POLITICO. “It’s important for everybody to know we have all options still on the table and we’re going to continue to watch what everyone else does.”

The order of states in the 2012 calendar is more than an arcane procedural issue. Every time a state leapfrogs the calendar, it scrambles the strategic calculus for presidential candidates who have largely focused on a small band of officially sanctioned early primaries.

According to RNC and DNC rules, only four states are permitted to vote before the “Super Tuesday” date of March 6: Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina.

States that schedule elections before that point risk having their delegations to the Republican National Convention cut in half, raising the prospect of a summer fight over whose delegates get seated and whose don’t.

Another response is that traditional early states such as South Carolina may move their primaries even earlier to avoid sharing election dates with brazen newcomers like Arizona.

Presidential candidates then have to decide whether to compete in potentially messy, unsanctioned contests.

The candidates’ response to Arizona was telling: Even though the state is openly defying the RNC, Mitt Romney and Michele Bachmann both visited within days of Gov. Jan Brewer’s decision to hold a primary in late February.

That could effectively send a signal to the other undecided states that, whatever the RNC says, candidates are prepared to reward their bad behavior.

Michigan Republican National Committeeman Saul Anuzis, a Romney supporter, predicted that a few more states may schedule their elections for the end of February and then “beg for mercy” from the RNC when it comes time to hand out delegates.

“If they go February 28 or later, I think we will at least have succeeded at moving the calendar out of the holidays,” said Anuzis, who pointed to Florida as the state still most likely to tear up the process. “If Florida goes early and forces the others to move, we could very easily be back to the 2008 calendar.”

In addition to the states that are all but explicitly daring the party to penalize them, several others are likely to hold early, non-binding caucuses that would start the process of choosing delegates near the beginning of February.