No. 1 Pacers vs. No. 2 Heat

Sean’s take

Well, we wound up with the matchup in the East finals we all thought we’d get. It just took a very strange set of circumstances to get us here.

Let’s face it—the Pacers are a mess. Trying to predict what they’ll do next is futile. It is astonishing that they’re still alive, having sweated out the Atlanta series and squeaking by Washington in the first two rounds. They wanted to be the No. 1 seed, and it worked out well that they had it, because they probably would not be here if they did not have the postseason schedule they had.

Obviously, playing a Miami team that comes into the conference finals 8-1 and well rested in the postseason gives the Pacers a much different challenge than what they contended with in the first two rounds. The Heat have, at times, looked ripe for the plucking, but the Bobcats and Nets were hardly the teams ready to do that plucking. The question is, are the Pacers ready?

The answer is most likely no.

Even at their best, the Pacers have the same problem that they had when they faced Miami a year ago in the East finals—they rely too heavily on Paul George to be a ballhandler and scorer, and that makes the Pacers pretty easy to defend. That’s why they got Evan Turner at the trade deadline, but Turner has mostly been a nonfactor for Indy, averaging just 3.5 points in 13.3 minutes in the playoffs, sitting out two games entirely.

Miami has its own health concerns, of course, and its experiment with Greg Oden as the center hasn’t worked out. The Heat are vulnerable inside—especially if Roy Hibbert decides to play well—and the Chris Bosh-Shane Battier-Udonis Haslem frontcourt can be taken apart by Indiana.

But the problem is that Indiana lacks the ballhandlers and perimeter weapons to open the floor for their big guys. George has to do too much, and the Heat have become pretty good at clamping down on him. Big advantage for Miami, and the series should go to them.

Prediction: Heat in 6

DeAntae's take

You're right, Sean, Indiana is a mess. But this is a fact we've been aware of since February. It's amazing that they reached this point, but it's just as astonishing that they held on to the No. 1 seed over the second half of the season.

The focus of Indiana's playoff problems in series against Atlanta and Washington shifted to Roy Hibbert, who posted two scoreless games against the Hawks and another vs. Washington. But the onus on Hibbert as a scorer hasn't really been warranted until now. Against the Heat, Hibbert is often at his best offensively because there is no true rim protector or big body on the Miami roster.

Past production does not determine future success, though. And while Miami's attempt at adding Oden to contend with Hibbert failed, it has the ability to spread out Indiana's defense and make Hibbert a non-factor as a rim protector and rebounder, which is what he really is paid to be. Atlanta cracked the code, Washington emulated and Miami has just as many weapons to replicate it.

Ray Allen, James Jones and Shane Battier can also spread the floor from the wings, but Chris Bosh's increased potency from three will be the biggest weapon the Heat have, outside of the obvious tandem of LeBron James and Dwyane Wade.

Bosh has been a huge weapon from deep, even as Miami faced hybrid bigs in Charlotte's Josh McRoberts and Miami's Kevin Garnett and Mason Plumlee. His effectiveness is sure to go up against the slow feet of Hibbert.

Prediction: Heat in 5

No. 1 Spurs vs. No. 2 Thunder

Sean’s take

Even before the calf injury to Serge Ibaka that will keep him out of the rest of the postseason, the Thunder were facing a tough challenge against the Spurs here in the West finals. Sure, the Thunder have a good recent history against San Antonio—they’re 10-2 against them since 2012, playoffs included—but the Spurs were firing on all cylinders in the second round of the playoffs, trouncing Portland in five games.

Without Ibaka, the Thunder lose one of the key advantages they have over San Antonio—their defensive athleticism and ability to close out on shots from just about anywhere on the floor. Things did not exactly go smoothly against the Clippers on the defensive end for OKC, but they were one of the top defensive teams in the league during the regular season, and they’ve always done a good job stopping San Antonio. On the season, the Thunder allowed a shooting percentage of just 43.6, third-best in the NBA.

It’s hard to see how that can continue in this series without the length and shot-blocking ability of Ibaka. The Spurs depend on their ability to spread the floor and attack the basket from there, and if Ibaka is not in the lineup—he has developed into a capable midrange shooter, remember—San Antonio should be able to hammer the Thunder with small lineups. Look for Kawhi Leonard to play the power forward spot, and for Manu Ginobili to play a very big role attacking the basket.

Oklahoma City needed some luck to get past the Clippers in the second round, and there were several instances in which L.A. shot themselves in the foot and opened the door to their own demise. The Spurs, though, are masters of execution, and won’t give away games the way the Clippers did. That will spell doom for the Thunder.

Prediction: Spurs in 6

DeAntae's take

As Sean noted, the Oklahoma City Thunder have had a heavy advantage over the Spurs in their most recent meetings. I didn't take that advantage as lightly as Sean did, because certain staples of the Thunder approach helped build those 10 wins in 12 matchups. Speed, athleticism and pace were important parts of each win.

But because the Thunder rotation is so shallow, much of the production that defeated the Spurs can be allotted to three players—Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook and Serge Ibaka.

The Thunder are one of few teams to feature a starting five in which two non-threats on offense are included, but the potency of Durant and Westbrook and consistency of Ibaka have allowed the team to stick with a group that involves Kendrick Perkins and Thabo Sefolosha. So this recent calf injury that kicked Ibaka out for the remainder of the postseason challenges the very fabric of the Thunder.

The Thunder's leg up on the Spurs can be traced back to attributes found in Ibaka's game. OKC had youth, athleticism and pace on it side in previous matchups, with Ibaka providing top-level defense, running the floor and hitting timely shots from outside. Without that, it's hard to see the Thunder defeating the Spurs over the course of a series.

Yes, OKC does have the NBA's MVP and Westbrook is playing out of his mind, but the Spurs have the type of depth and efficiency that can wear a team down. Tony Parker, Tim Duncan and Co. just have too much for the Ibaka-less Thunder to contend with this time around.