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Re: Team Hero: Oct. 3 vs Oakland in the Wild Card Game

Voit's number is hurt by the fact that the Yanks' win probability was already at 95.5% before his at-bat.

For the curious: When Khris Davis hit that home run to make the score 6-2, the impact on win probability was negligible (from 99.1% down to 97.6%).

I would ask, though, what the win probably for Oakland would be had Voit's triple not happened. If he doesn't get that hit and then subsequently score the 6th run, Davis's homerun makes it 3-2. Of course, you can't assume that everything will happen exactly the same way but 3-2 is a VERY different game. Pitchers change their approach. The A's suddenly feel a jolt of confidence. Maybe Boone panics and brings in Chapman. A whole host of other things could happen. I don't put a lot of stock in those percentages.

That said, Betances played the biggest role in last night's win. Judge would be a close second as he really set the tone. (IMO)

Re: Team Hero: Oct. 3 vs Oakland in the Wild Card Game

Originally Posted by KayForPresident

I would ask, though, what the win probably for Oakland would be had Voit's triple not happened. If he doesn't get that hit and then subsequently score the 6th run, Davis's homerun makes it 3-2. Of course, you can't assume that everything will happen exactly the same way but 3-2 is a VERY different game. Pitchers change their approach. The A's suddenly feel a jolt of confidence. Maybe Boone panics and brings in Chapman. A whole host of other things could happen. I don't put a lot of stock in those percentages.

That is a great point. I love Sweet Lou's stats, always interesting and often surprising, and I know all about the fallacy of the predetermined outcome (i.e. can't assume Davis hits the HR if we didn't extend the lead), but its more than fair to say "WHAT IF" cause we're talking about the leagues leading HR hitter this year, so it very well could have happened ... and then, yes, its 3-2, not 6-2, and nail-biting time.

That said, I'm a big believer that tack-on runs are all important, you can't have a big enough lead to make me feel comfortable. I've lived long enough to see big leads implode and those are the most devastating losses of them all. Heck, even at 6-0 I was not yet popping any corks. :-)

But I'll tell you this, Voit's 2R Triple followed by Didi's Sac Fly Run gave me the first chance of the night to slightly exhale.

"Owning the Yankees is like owning the Mona Lisa." -- George M. Steinbrenner III