"Love ya!" "You're special!" "Hey, Sweet Thing!" What, you actuallythought The Cup would send you such saccharin little (belated) Valentinesillies? You should know by now that The Cup would never pull itselfabove the joyful revelry of slander, gossip, and venomous "slips" of thetongue. It's not our job to be nice; it's our job to keep you snapping atthe heels in front of you, eyeing each other's totals, bickering,snickering, tickering (okay, for your Karl...) and Northern Flickering.Not only do we take our jobs seriously, but we take them with disdain anddisgruntlement; any sweet greetings from us gruff and grumpy Cup stafferswould be purely accidental and should in no way be held against us.

WELCOME TO THE DAVID CUP CLAN: Will anyone be able to one-upKevin McGowan's thrust for this year's Family Time Prize? Highly unlikely,considering he's successfully recruited HIS ENTIRE FAMILY for the 1998David Cup race! Says Kevin, "Oh, it's so exciting around theMcGowan-Kline household this month!! I've got totals for all fourCuppers!! [Kevin and Jay, of course; wife Kim Kline of News, Cues, andBlues fame in 2.11, and daughter Peri, age 6.] Jay wants to enter Swift[their cat!] into the competition too, as she became very interested inbirds after we got the stick-on window feeder for Christmas. We don'tthink she got Hoary Redpoll yet, but definitely she has Common." Don'tsuppose that means you've got "catbird" on your list now? There's Cup-reader-cum-Cupper Ben Taft who has already caught ontothe best way to be a serious Cup contender: "I am a sophomore in theCollege of Arts and Sciences at Cornell U, and I hope to sharpen mymediocre but (hopefully) ever-increasing birding skills by participatingin the David Cup and drafting all of the outstanding birders in thearea." Forget it, Ben, you sound too nice to be a real threat. And this Jon Kloppel guy who's been posting to Cayugabirds of late.Is he related to our own Geo Kloppel? According to Jon, he's Geo'sbrother. Isn't it obvious? He signed up for the David Cup! "Iguess I am a novice birder who just got started this January when Isubscribed to Cayugabirds-L and found exciting hot tips and scintillatinginfo and banter! However, as a child I did a great deal of birding inSchuyler County with some expert birders, and so I have a global base ofunderstanding about what's what. Anyway, it sounds inspiring and fun." Speaking of family, Pat Ria could give hubby Geo Kloppel a Cup for hismoney. Well, maybe not, but then again, who could? By the looks of it,though, she's heading for the Top Ten! "I watch the birds that come to ourfeeders," Pat said at the Cupper Supper. "And I go birding quite a bitwith Geo. I may as well just start counting what I see." We're rootingfor you, Pat! Well, we hope you beat Matt Medler, at least. "I would like to sign up for the Cup, although I don't spend thesummer here." Spoken like a true Cupper: always ready with an excuse for apoor showing. Cornell student Matt Sarver already fits right in. Goodluck, Matt, but now that you're in the David Cup, don't plan on graduatingfor at least another ten years. Garry Chapin, you were the guy who came to the Cupper Supper withMeena, right? If not, oops! But it doesn't really matter, because you'lldefinitely be coming to Cupper Supper '98, right? Now that you'reofficially a Cupper. Just don't let Meena lead you on any wildWhite-fronted Goose chases--unless she actually finds one and calls theeditors, of course. If we've said it once, we've said it a dozen times: Once a Cupper,always a Cupper. This year, it's Scott Mardis turn to prove us right:"Why don't you guys count me in for this year's David Cup? I have nochance at winning the competition, but I'd like to throw down the gauntletfor all the other out-of-state Cuppers. Tell Ralph he is going to have todo better than 52 in '98! Margaret of Mansfield probably has the bestpositioning, but I'll give all I can for my fewer than 10 visits to theBasin. Save some good birds for me!" Welcome home, Scott! And don't worry,the starlings and Rock Doves aren't going anywhere. Finally, not to be outdone by Swift McGowan, the Wells are pushing theenvelop on pet labor laws by signing up kitties Teddy and Mimi. "It's notfair," says Mimi (the bold one). "Swift gets to go outside. Our onlychance at seeing birds is through the kitty tv, which is always tuned intothe Fire Escape Channel." "Meow," agrees Teddy (the scaredy cat). Swift,you didn't actually see the white rump on that "Common" Redpoll, did you?

LIVING THE HIGHLIGHTS: Due to insubordinance ("No! I won't refuseto make you another stinkin', lousy, cup of tea!" he said on more than oneoccasion), we've been forced to fire Tom Nix from the Highlights Column.Are you crazy? Of course, we're kidding! Tom's columns were nothingshort of inspiring. But, sadly, his current responsibilities with "thatother job" (building inspector for the city of Ithaca) have precluded hisstaying on another year as The Cup's Highlights writer. Tom's brilliantwriting, hawk-eyed attention to Cayugabirds posts, and, especially,occasional jabs at fellow Cuppers will be greatly missed. Our only consolation is that stepping into the Highlights spotlightwill be Geo Kloppel. That's right! Geo was this year's winner of theThoreau Award, in the Cupper's Choice Awards. And seeing as 99.9% of allpostings to Cayugabirds are his, he should have an easy job keeping trackof what's been seen each month in the Basin. Geo, all of Cupland awaitsyour column with great anticipation, and we here at Cup Headquarterswelcome you to the staff ! (Ha, ha, ha!)

LEADER LISTS: In anticipation for his upcoming move from the Basin(in other words, he needs as much time as possible to get his totals upthere before moving away) in June, Karl David has stepped down from histour of duty as Leader's List and Composite Deposit compiler. Father Karldid a eagle-eyed job knit-picking through the lists of our monthly fearlessleaders; he won considerable admiration in particular for catching SteveKelling in his desperate attempt to cheat his way to David Cup victory inDecember. Karl, we'll miss your hovering over that Composite Deposit likea mama hawk guarding her young. But in true Cupper spirit, Kevin and Jay McGowan have picked upwhere Karl has left off. Of course, Kevin's ahead this month, and Jay wonfor "most likely to succeed as David Cup Champ in 1998." So hard can itbe for them? Plenty. Just wait, you'll see. Thanks, boys!

IN THE KNICKS OF TIME: The editors at The Cup give our Number 2pro basketball team (Number One, of course, is the Celtics) a little facetime, and what do we get in return, from our own staffer Matt Medler?"I let it slide the first time, but as the brother of a big Knicks fan, Ihad to let you know that it's Knicks, not Nicks. If you're going to livein New York, you've got to know a little bit about New York State history.A Knickerbocker was a name for a Dutch settler in the New Netherlands(New York) colony in the 1600s. The arena in Albany was called theKnickerbocker Arena (quite the cool name, I think), until they sold outrecently and allowed Pepsi to buy the rights to the name. Pepsi Arena isthe new (lame) name." Matt, what are doing wasting your time writing forThe Cup? With knowledge like that, you could be writing for somethingreally exciting, like "Dutch Settlers' Weekly".

MATTING MISTAKES: To ensure he would in fact receive a healthydose of public humiliation, courtesy of The Cup , Matt Medler not only sentin the above insubordinate remark (remember what happened to TomNix, Matt? By the way, that's "Nix," not "Knicks") but also committed theultimate David Cup faux pas: he messed up a total, and an end-of-year totalat that! "By the way," wrote Geo Kloppel when sending in January's tally,"my total for 1997 was 211, not 207." "Do you want us to draw and quarterMatt? Or worse, we could run a correction," we wrote to Geo. "Nah, don'tbother! It doesn't even bring me _near_the 1997 Top Ten, and I don't careanything about _previous_ years' standings anyway, I'm focused _entirely_on 1998 (but be sure to give Matt a private roasting--it'll be good forhim!" Consider this your private roasting, Matt.

COUNT YOURSELF IN: Be part of birdwatching history! Join the rest ofthe nation on February 20, 21, and 22 as we all count birds for the Great 98 Backyard Bird Count! Great '98, the first of its kind, invites everyfamily and individual in the country to count the birds they see at theirbird feeders, backyards, local parks or other outdoor locations, as a wayto help scientists learn more about North American birds. Key to thishistory-making event is that participants contribute their sightingsonline, through a revolutionary Web site, BirdSource<http://birdsource.cornell.edu>, a joint project of Audubon and CLO. Inturn, BirdSource will provide almost instantaneous feedback to participantsthrough graphics, animated maps, and regularly updated informationsummaries. "Watching the count results will be like watching electionreturns from all across the country, right on your own computer screen,"says CLO's Director (and Cupper!) John Fitzpatrick. "It's fun, it's easy toparticipate in, and it's good for science. All you need is a love of theoutdoors and access to an online computer." Mark your calendars, and keepthose feeders full!

BIRD CUP BLUES AND ALL THAT JAZZ: Guess who came to Syracuseand went with nary a word about it. B.B. King! Were Cuppers notified?Were they told of this legend's awesome approach to Cupland and howCuppers had darned sure better get their tails up there to his concert?(BB's no spring chicken, you know, he may not have many cock-a-doodle-doosleft in him.) Who's responsible, huh? Who's to blame for thisunforgivable oversight? Oh. Um, we are. Er, sorry.

1998 began with a harsh challenge from Mother Nature: deep snowand frigid temperatures made birding on January 1st more difficult thanhad been the case a couple of days earlier or would be again just a fewdays later. But bold counters headed out anyway, with four-wheel drives,snowshoes, skis, plenty of warm clothing, and clean slates for the new year. During the following days the two-foot snow pack melted completelyaway, and so much muddy water flowed into the lake that summerwater-level was restored, illustrating the engineers' rationale for theannual winter drain down. But the waterfowl seemed to desert the south endof Cayuga Lake in response. Pieces of driftwood and rubbish floatedeverywhere, bobbing up and down on the chop to tease the viewer withimagined heads of the absconded ducks. I slogged out to Myers Pointthrough deep slush a day or two after the Xmas count, walking in the tracksleft by the counters' snowshoes, but found no birds at all on the water formy effort. The geese, marsh ducks, gulls, and even swans were out gleaningin the newly bared and sometimes submerged fields. Those who scanned gulls at the north end of the lake had good luck,beginning with Catherine Sandell's appropriately "champagne-colored"Kumlien's ICELAND GULL on the first day of the new year. More Icelandsturned up in the Seneca Falls area. A few MUTE SWANS continued theoverwintering trend that began in 1996, along with many Tundra Swans.Later in the month one or more ICELAND GULLS shared TompkinsCounty shores with an adult LESSER BLACK-BACKED GULL. Among the less-numerous waterfowl species, PIED-BILLED GREBEand DOUBLE-CRESTED CORMORANT, which were both missed by the IthacaChristmas Count, turned up during the early stages of the thaw.There were also WOOD DUCK, GREEN-WINGED TEAL, GADWALL, NORTHERN PINTAIL,AMERICAN WIGEON and RING-NECKED DUCK, as well as COMMON LOON, HORNED GREBE,BRANT, SNOW GOOSE, WHITE-WINGED SCOTER, all three MERGANSER species...in fact, it might be better to list the few misses: neither RED-NECKEDGREBE, OLDSQUAW, BLACK nor SURF SCOTERS, nor RUDDY DUCK were reported inthe Basin via Cayugabirds-l in January. Those hoped-for long-shots BARROW'SGOLDENEYE and KING EIDER didn't show. BALD EAGLES were seen at Tschache Marsh and along the lake. John Bowerfound a MERLIN in the vicinity of lower Robert Treman State Park.ROUGH-LEGGED HAWKS were not hard to find, but NORTHERN HARRIERS werescarce. A SNOWY OWL was found again at the Savannah Mucklands, as was aLONG-EARED OWL at Union Springs, by the McGowan team. A SNOWY OWL wasreported at Montezuma near the end of the month, leaving us to wonder ifthe individual that was first found standing in the Mucklands duringDecember might have been in the Greater Montezuma area continuously sincethen. Only one SHORT-EARED OWL was reported to Cayugabirds, a lakesidefly-by seen by Tom Nix at Aurora. Then ,in the final minutes of the lastday of January, N SAW-WHET OWLS began to be heard in West Danby. NORTHERN SHRIKES were seen east of the Tompkins County Airportand west of Trumbulls Corners. LAPLAND LONGSPURS were foundamong the Snow Buntings in several locations. COMMON REDPOLLS werewidespread, and began descending to the feeders in the early days ofJanuary, often joining the EVENING GROSBEAKS already there. WHITE-WINGEDCROSSBILLS were found at Summerhill State Forest, and PINE GROSBEAKScontinued there as well, also making an appearance near Mecklenburg. REDCROSSBILLS and PINE SISKINS were reported from the Hammond Hill area. CRAVENS showed up on Hammond Hill, at Hogs' Hole, and in Danby. SandyPodulka had a visit from RUSTY BLACKBIRDS. Half-hardy passerines foundduring the month included E. BLUEBIRDS, A ROBINS, HERMIT THRUSH, CAROLINAWREN, SONG SPARROWS, E. MEADOWLARKS, COMMON YELLOWTHROAT.

(Geo Kloppel makes and repairs violin bows. This may or may not explainhis "knack" for attracting unusual sounding birds--Whip-poor-will,N Saw-whet Owl around his house.)

Since Kevin and Jay were late on the Composite Deposit scene,Father Karl has generously agreed to put together this month's CD.Be a sport, will you? Help us play "Yes, This Was (or Was Not) Seenin January" by responding to the questions marks accordingly.

What better way to prove that being a cowinner in the David Cup wasn'tjust a fluke by being featured in an interview exclusively for The Cup?"Kickin' Tail" brings well deserved honor and recognition to the Cupperwho has glassed, scoped, scanned, driven, climbed, dug, or family-timedhis/her way to the top of the David Cup list.

THE CUP: Hey, Big Guy, Mr.,er, Dr. David Cup 1997. Did you expect tobe on top at the beginning of '98?

McGOWAN: No, not really. I'm always a threat to be a contender for a topspot, I guess, but usually only if no one is trying really hard. The bigdifference this year might be that I stayed in the country for the firstJanuary of a David Cup competition.

THE CUP: Yes, but we hear you'll be leaving for a spot in February, andthat your son Jay is already scheming to plow ahead of you. What a shame.(Jay, where shall we bird first?) How hard did you have to work to get 79?

McGOWAN: I didn't try all that hard.

THE CUP: Righhht.

McGOWAN: We didn't target any species that were hanging around thatwe could get easily later (1's or 2's in my rankings), only 3's or higher,the seasonals and rarities. You know, stuff like Snowy Owl, Iceland Gull,Lapland Longspur, Pine Grosbeak (which we missed).

THE CUP: Pity. Have you seen our totals, by the way?

McGOWAN: We didn't even think to go after the Common Yellowthroator Gray Catbird. We did, however, pick up a few unusual winter 1's and2's. Green-winged Teal and Ruddy Duck come to mind.

THE CUP: How much harder would you have had to have worked in orderto make the Big 100?

McGOWAN: It's a long way to 100. It would have taken quite a bit ofeffort.

THE CUP: You mean like actually leaving your house?

McGOWAN: Looking back at it, this might have been the year. Wehad a bunch of half-hearties around and all the winter finches and somegood ducks. Sigh, I suppose it was a missed opportunity.

THE CUP: Aw, don't be so hard on yourself, Kev, you've got your family tothink about. Wait a minute! That's no excuse, since you forced them allto enroll in the David Cup! Speaking of which, has this yielded some goodfortune yet in your quest for a repeat victory?

McGOWAN: I guess the Hoary Redpoll at the feeder could qualify. We allgot killer looks at it. Which was good, because Kim and Jay were mybiggest skeptics about that identification before they got to confirm it.(Jay: "Well, IF it really WAS a Hoary Redpoll, then we had 26 species inthe yard this month." Kim: "It seems awfully convenient that you foundthis rare bird right at our own feeders.")

THE CUP: And then you paid them off with promises of a big "familyvacation" around the lake, right?

McGOWAN: We haven't made a big family outing to pad our lists yet, butI'm hoping that will come later.

THE CUP: Why isn't "Big Kitty", a.k.a., Skeezix, signed up for the DC?

McGOWAN: Although Skeezix is the big hunter, he showed littleinterest in looking out the window after we began his confinement.

THE CUP: What you need is a good ol' fashioned fire escape, the kind thatgives a solid, resonating "BOOM" whenever the squirrels miss their target(the sunflower feeder) and crash down onto the metal platform. This'llkeep Skeezix on his paws.

McGOWAN: He had a little too much enthusiasm for hanging around thefeeders. Swift, though, who has never caught a bird but is similarlyconfined, really took a big interest in the stick-on window feeder I gotJay for Christmas. (I don't know when she will learn that she can't breakthrough the window and get those pesky birds. First she tried the directapproach, trying to smash her way through, then she thought that perhapsbeing sneaky would work better. Of course, it didn't.) After we put thewindow feeder up Swift seemed to realize that a whole BUNCH of birdswere coming into the yard to visit the other feeders. For a couple of daysshe stayed pretty much in the kitchen watching out the window. That'swhen we realized she could compete against Mira in the non-humancategory (as long as John Bower and Bill Evans don't think to join).

THE CUP: We hear John Bower is wimping out all together, but don't tellanyone.

McGOWAN: Skeezix still doesn't pay all that much attention to thefeeders, although the redpolls got him going a little. The chickadees atthe window didn't interest him, but he really seemed to want a redpoll.

THE CUP: Mimi and Teddy say they hear redpolls taste more like chocolate.Good, quality chocolate, not that cheap stuff. Right now your sharedvictory resides with cowinner Stephen Davies. Come June, it'll be yours.Can you describe for us the spot in your home where it will proudly sit?

McGOWAN: Well, the glass-fronted, lighted (UV shielded, of course)display case is still on order. I expect it will go in the living room sothat it will be the first thing guests notice when they walk in the door.

THE CUP: Just don't let Jay use it for target practice with those dangerousNerf darts. By the way, Teddy found one under the couch the other day. Atleast, we think that's what it is. It could be a really, really old ear ofcorn. At this stage, who are you most concerned about?

McGOWAN: Well, despite the Cuppers' Choice victory by my son Jay, himI don't worry about. When he can drive, then I'll worry.

THE CUP: (Jay, what were those "free" dates again, in February?)

McGOWAN: Stephen Davies would be my biggest concern, but we knowhe's leaving part way through the year. Same with Karl. So, no problem.(I'll be calling them first with all my rare sightings.) I'm not sureabout Steve Kelling. Two years at the runner-up position could either havefirmed up his resolve not to let anyone even near him this year, or itcould have killed his competitive spirit all together. It's hard to judgeright now.

THE CUP: Um, have you seen his totals this month?

McGOWAN: I'll have to take a look at him after the big BirdSourceopening when he'll be a bit more human and see which way he's leaning. ButI have to say that my biggest concern at the moment is GeoKloppel. He hasthe lean and hungry look. And he's turning up at all the right placesseeing all the right birds. He could be dangerous.

THE CUP: And watch those young upstarts, too. Newcomer Matt Sarverobviously has too much time on his hands, despite being a Cornell student.Or is it *because* he's a Cornell student?

McGOWAN: I don't expect to repeat on top in 1998. I have a bit too muchtime planned out of the Basin this year.

THE CUP: Oh, we hear that lame excuse from you every year. C'mon, fessup, you know you want to.

McGOWAN: I can be dangerous, too, so time will tell.

THE CUP: Now, that's better. But watch your back...

JJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJ BIRDBITS By Jay McGowanJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJWelcome to Birdbits! Here is a chance to test your knowledge of theworld of birds. This month is Gull Month, because there are hardly anyother birds to look at! Answers next month.

1. What is the largest gull in the world?2. What is the smallest gull in the world?3. Which gulls have dark heads in breeding plumage?4. Which gulls have white heads and dark bodies in breeding plumage?5. Which gulls have dark hoods and white bodies in non-breeding plumage?6. Which gull besides Sabine's Gull has a black hood, forked tail, yellowtip to the bill, a gray back, white triangles in the wings, and blackwingtips?7. What is the scientific name of the Sooty Gull?8. Which gulls have black backs in breeding plumage?9. What is the common name for Larus fuliginosus?10. Which two gulls in North America sometimes are pink?

ANSWERS TO NOVEMBER'S BIRDBITS:1. Which North American hawks are sexually dimorphic in plumage(males and females look different)? Hook-billed Kite, Northern Harrier,Rough-legged Hawk, Osprey, American Kestrel, and Merlin.2. Which North American owls are sexually dimorphic in plumage?Snowy Owl.3. Which North American hawks have only one word in their names?Osprey, Merlin, and Gyrfalcon.4. Which North American hawks are also found in Europe? Golden Eagle,Northern Harrier, Northern Goshawk, Rough-legged Hawk, Osprey, Merlin,Peregrine Falcon, and Gyrfalcon.5. Which North American hawk has a yellow bill? Bald Eagle.6. Which North American forest hawk is becoming a common breeder incities and towns in North America, including Ithaca? Cooper's Hawk.7. What is the largest hawk in the world? Harpy Eagle.8. What is the "Mexican Eagle" on the Mexican flag? Crested Caracara.9. Which North American raptor has spiny processes on its feet to help ithold its prey? Osprey, which eats slippery fish.10. Which North American hawk is a cooperative breeder? Harris's Hawk.Mississippi Kites occasionally have helpers at the nest.

Jay McGowan, age eleven, is home-schooled. Can't you tell? He actuallyknow something about birds!)

How big does a mixed Horned Lark/Snow Bunting flock have to befor you to have a fifty-fifty chance of finding a Lapland Longspur in it?Hurray, you say, after several months of columns of more anecdotal thanstatistical content, the Father of the Madness finally returns to hard-corenumber crunching! This is why you subscribed to The Cup in the firstplace! [Editors make snide remarks in the background.] So hang on forthe ride. My question was motivated by the fact that the lark/bunting flockhanging out near the Triangle Diner in King [not King's!] Ferry twicefailed to cough up a longspur for me in January. It's a good-sized flock of50-75 birds. But, the only thing I got for my troubles was a "Was that youstanding by the side of the road staring our over the field?" from a coupleof Aurora acquaintances when I next saw them. That and some chilledfingers and toes [cf. "Best-dressed Cupper Award," The Cup 2.12]. The answer to my question depends, of course, on the relativefrequency of longspurs in such flocks (from here on in, "bird" refers onlyto any of the three mentioned species). On an otherwise disappointing tripto Point Peninsula once in search of wintering raptors, I remember runninginto a pure longspur flock (about a dozen). I remember it because it's sounusual. More typically, we have to scan a large flock carefully and hopethere's one or two mixed in. I have no idea what the true figure is, solet's pretend one bird in a hundred is a longspur, and start calculating. First, if you find a 100-bird flock, are you guaranteed to find alongspur? After all, 100 * 1/100 = 1, right? If you believe that, you alsobelieve you must get a head if you flip a coin twice [2 * = 1]. The birdsdon't travel around in flocks of exactly 100 with exactly 1 longspur ineach, just as heads and tails don't alternate when flipping coins.Nevertheless, you would probably guess that in a flock this size, yourchances are better than even...and you'd be right. But, exactly how wouldyou calculate the odds? As usual, simplify the problem first: what if it's a 1-bird "flock"?Duh, then the probability it's a longspur is 1/100. Okay, that'ssimplifying it too much. How about a 2-bird flock? Now, we get a littlemore insight in how to proceed. The trick is to pretend the birds are linedup in a row and don't move (this is theory, not practice). Longspur"success" is: Bird #1 is a longspur, Bird #2 is notor Bird #1 is not a longspur, Bird #2 isor Bird #1 is a longspur, Bird #2 is also

(Surely when you said you wanted a longspur, you didn't mean one andONLY one!). The corresponding probabilities are

and since these are three mutually exclusive events {only one can happen],you add them up to get 199/10000 = .0199, i.e. a 1.99% chance of findinga longspur in a 2-bird flock. Note that's already ever-so-slightly buttellingly less than the "naive" guess of 2% obtained by just doubling theprobability on a single bird. That gap widens as flock size goes up. Perhaps you noticed something here: the omitted scenario is

Bird #1 is not a longspur, Bird #2 is also not

which has probability 99/100 * 99/100 = 9801/10000. And now the "greypoupon" insight hits you: this is the longspur "failure" scenario, andsince either success or failure is assured, and they're mutually exclusive,

199/10000 + 9801/10000 = 1.

That is, you could have found the answer more simply as 1 - (99/100)^2."But of course!" [for TV ad familiarity, see "Contest Award Winners,"op. cit.]. Believe it or not, the leap from 2 to 100 is nothing: the probabilityof finding (at least) one longspur in a 100-bird flock is, by (correct)analogy, 1 - (99/100)^100 = 0.6340

i.e. about 63%.

So, we know the flock size for a 50% chance of a longspur will be lessthan 100. Finding the exact size amounts to solving

1 - (99/100)^x = 0.5

for x; this is what logarithms were born for. Sparing you the details, itcomes out x = 68.9676. That is, a flock size of about 69 gives you a 50%chance of finding a longspur ... always keeping in mind this is under theassumption that 1% of the birds are longspurs. This is all too easy, you say ... what about the probability, alludedto earlier, of there being one and ONLY one longspur in the flock? This inturn leads me to the happy realization that I can get another column out ofthis next month! You may say on the other hand, who would ever careabout one but only one longspur in the flock? Well, it's an intellectualchallenge, and it shouldn't be too hard to figure out other scenarios whereknowing the probability of an exact number might be important. I'll leavethat to your imagination, until next month.

(Karl David is a mathematics professor at Wells College in Aurora, NewYork, currently on sabbatical at Cornell. He is still trying to count thevulture puppet he was given at the Cupper Supper on his 1998 DC list)

This month's Coach has no excuses: no newborns, no out-of-Basin businesstrips. Nothing but Cayuga Lake stretching out before him like the promiseof coming spring...

COACH WELLS: In some ways, the strategy for remaining competitivein the David Cup/McIlroy competitions is the simplest in the first twomonths. That's because there are only a few species around that will behard to get later in the year. The most obvious birds in this category arethe winter finches--Evening Grosbeaks, Common Redpolls, Pine Grosbeaks,both crossbills. Since these species generally show a two-year periodicityto their invasions, more than likely you won't even be able to find thesespecies in the waning winter days of 1998. Next time you see a postingabout their whereabouts, go out and get them! Allison and I checkedSummerhill recently with no success--it looked as though there was not muchavailable for natural food in the area. With luck, there may be an influxof finches in our area again March and April, as they return north to theirbreeding grounds though, so heads up! Other birds in the "see now" category include Northern Shrike, thoughit seems as though everyone has already gone to see the now-famous NiemiRoad individual. If you haven't, get out there! You'll probably be able tfind it just by watching for its flock of human admirers parked along theroadway. It not, watch for a robin-sized bird perched horizontally at thetippy-top of a tree or post. The various saw-whet owls tooting around the Basin will likely beharder to get as the season progresses. Get in touch with Geo Kloppel orthe Cup editors if you want more info on where and when to listen for theirwhistles. Rounding out those "hard to find" birds are one of my favorite groups,the gulls. Gulls regularly roost in the late afternoon, on the ice infront of Stewart Park. Bring your scope and search through the manygrey-backed Herring and Ring-billeds for the tan or creamy white of anIceland or Glaucous. Several immature Icelands have been noted thererecently. Look for the more gracefully rounded, pigeon-headed look of theIceland and hope for a massive, large-billed Glaucous Gull. Remember thatin first-winter plumage, the Iceland will have an all-black bill and theGlaucous' will be two-toned pink a the base and dark at the tip. Also checkthe dark-backed gulls for a Lesser Black-backed. It you spot a dark-backedadult gull that appears lighter than a Great Black-backed Gull, check itshead. Lesser Black-backed in winter plumage have heavily streaked head andneck. Adult Great Black-backeds typically have only a little streaking onthe top of the head, with the head appearing otherwise very white. Ofcourse, the yellow legs, when visible, on a Lesser Black-backed versus thepink legs of a Great Black-backed are also an easy field mark. Of course, if you'd rather chase those first Killdeer and Red-wingedBlackbirds just to remind yourself that spring is on the way, don't le mestop you!

(Jeff Wells is Director of Bird Conservation for National Audubon NewYork. Lately, he can be seen whistling at trees, especially clusters ofevergreens.)

mmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm McILROY MUSINGS mmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm mmmmm

Guess who's back! (But is he better than ever?)

THE CUP: Why, it's Bill! Bill Evans! What took you so long to get backhere?

EVANS: Is that all the acknowledgment I get for smashing the JanuaryMcIlroy record?

THE CUP: Speaking of which, does John Bower know you're here? Howshould we break it to him?

EVANS: Bower is like one of those cheap light bulbs that burns bright forfew months then spits and sputters as it fades out of the picture. In afew years no one will remember him for his McIlroy total in 1997, but rumorhas it, the echos of his snoring during a 1987 night flight call outing atMount Pleasant can still be heard murmuring through the wooded hollows ofTompkins County.

THE CUP: Is that what that noise is? We thought it was the planes takingoff at the airport.

EVANS: In this regard, the DEC will be disappointed if Bower leaves theBasin as it was their one chance for attracting moose back into the area.

THE CUP: So, is this just a big tease, or are you really going for it thisyear?

EVANS: Hey, from what I can tell, everyone is moving out of town. Atthe rate things are going, even if I'm only in town for a few months Istill might win it!

THE CUP: Ah, but not the one person you need to keep your eye onthe most: this year's repeat winner, Allison Wells! Say, we want to thankyou for that "special award" you presented us with at the Cupper Supper.We were so moved that we thought it would be nice if you shared with theone-hundred thirty-odd Cup readers what it was the store clerk said toyou when you made your, er, "little" purchase on which to stick thestatuette [see The Cup 2.12].

EVANS: Yes, but maybe the Cup audience would rather hear about how[this portion of response censored. Bill, The Cup is rated G!)

THE CUP: What do you expect to see in February, and how far will you goto keep others (well, Allison and Davies, at least) from seeing the same?

THE CUP: Davies has left the competition mentally as he is moving toSan Francisco at the end of the summer. Allison is looking pretty old andhaggard recently under the stress of her new job at the Lab and generalexhaustion after two years of editing The Cup.

THE CUP: At least when *you're* being interviewed!

EVANS: I'm not worried about either of these has-beens. However,Jeff Wells is another story. Having been pummeled by his wife the last fewyears, the boys down at the gym are starting to talk. I wouldn't besurprised if he makes a push for the title.

THE CUP: Will you in fact be leaving town, Bill? In other words, when canwe expect your totals to drop off the face of the earth like they alwaysdo? Really, it takes a lot of guts to step foot into the Basin again, afterblowing the comfy McLeads you've held in the past.

EVANS: I plan on keeping the lead through February and possibly evenMarch.

THE CUP: Ooo! Scarey!

EVANS: I have applied for a job as a groundskeeper at the City Golf Course.If I get the job, I expect I'll rain terror on McLand in 1998.

THE CUP: Haven't you heard? They gave that job to Tom Nix. That'sanother reason why he's not doing the Highlights column this year. On theother hand, we know of the perfect job for you, Bill, over on Seneca Lake...

==================================================== BIRD BRAIN OF THE MONTH By Caissa Willmer====================================================

This month's Bird Brain, a native down-easter, maintains that she has beenfascinated with birds for as long as she can remember. She certainlycompels the list waves with her enthusiasm and fascination, and it's abouttime that she was featured in this column. She is, of course, Allison CupCo-editor Wells. "My earliest memories are of my nana's 'wild canaries' in Cooper'sMills, Maine. There were always lots of relatives at her house when we werethere, and things were joyfully hectic, but when her 'wild canaries' cameto her bird feeders, right outside her kitchen window, she'd point them outto everyone. The look on her face when she was watching them was magical.Any guesses what those 'wild canaries' were? Hint: In breeding plumage,the males are a glowing yellow with black wings and little black berets. "I was fortunate that in high school, my biology teacher, Mr. Miller,offered (and still does--despite what Matt Medler would like to think, itwasn't all *that* long ago!), an eco-ornithology class. In addition tolearning the biology of birds, we had to keep lists with dates, notes onhabitats, descriptions--if we reported unlikely birds like Gull-billed Ternand Western Grebe, we had to write details of our sightings. Mr. Millerwas the NYSARC of Winthrop High School! He rejected my report ofGull-billed Tern, and rightly so. On the other hand, he also rejected myWestern Grebe, even though he admitted my details were precise. That birdwas later confirmed by every birder with a vehicle that could handle themud road down to Indian Point in winter! It reappeared every season forabout twelve years. "Mr. Miller also encouraged his students to go on the Augusta (Maine)Christmas Bird Count, which a classmate of mine and I did and loved.And we didn't even get extra credit." Allison won't admit to any great birding expertise, but sheexplains, "Iestablished good habits from that eco-ornithology class. I love to readfield guides and species accounts, particularly when I'm driving (justkidding). And I've learned from Jeff. The first time I went birding withhim (our first date was a birding trip), I was blown away. He's one of thebest birders I know, and I'm not just saying that so he'll do the laundrynext time! My favorite way to learn is just by watching birds, the way mygrandmother watched them, with respect and wonder." Asked how she managed to snag so appropriate a mate, Allison wasquick to respond, "I set up a mist-net in my parents' backyard, and lo andbehold, a Black-bearded Trumpeter flew into it! Actually, we were both inmusic school at the time. I had a job in the evening monitoring the musicbuilding, which basically meant sitting by the doors to make sure no onewalked out with a piano on their shoulders. The concession machines werethere, so Jeff would wait until everyone else had taken their breaks andwander out to strike up conversation with me. It didn't take long forbirds to come up. I couldn't believe another person (around!) my age wasinto birds, so when he said he had a telescope in his car, I said, 'Oh, areyou into astronomy?' Next thing I knew, we were on the Misery (Maine)Christmas Bird Count, which is way up in northern Maine. "Talk about an adventure! The heater boxes in his little yellowvolkswagon bug were rusted out, so if you turned on the heaters, you gotcarbon monoxide poisoning. I questioned my sanity the moment I saw himlean towards the windshield and breathe a peep hole in the frost so hecould 'see'--it was like cruising down the highway in a big, yellow birdhouse! Fortunately, it was predawn, so we didn't cause any accidents. Iwrote an essay about this that appeared in the Christian Science Monitor afew years back. Our birding adventures have given me much inspiration,to say the least." It's also very interesting to find that Allison and Jeff are currentlyworking at the same place, too. I wondered what a basic 9-5 job might bedoing to her identity as a freelance writer and poet. "Nine-to-five? I wish! My therapist said that I now sufferfrom an acutecase of Labofornithology syndrome, symptoms of which include frequentrelapses into trailerphobia. Steve Kelling is having a particularly badattack of this right now. He may not pull through. His hallucinations areso real that he sterilizes his coffee mug every morning, convinced thatthose little black beads at the bottom really are mouse droppings. "Seriously, I've always seen myself as a writer--of poetry, fiction,and creative nonfiction (essays as well as articles). As long as I'mwriting about something I find compelling, I'm blissful. I'm enjoyingwriting about birds and birding for BirdSource, at the Lab; my'assignments' are interesting and vary from press releases to a whole rangeof materials for the Web site. Working at the Lab has also given me theopportunity to do some writing/editing for some of the othercitizen-science projects, too--Project FeederWatch, Birds of ForestedLandscapes, Cornell Nest Box Network, and Classroom FeederWatch. So Istill feel like a freelancer, only I'm not currently scrambling for thenext project. But for the record, let me tell you I have a story atBirders' World right now (centered around gull-watching at Niagara,co-authored with the most knowledgable gull-lover I know, Jeff), I'm do myIthaca Child stuff, and I just had a poem come out in a literary journal.So my checks and balances continue to add up nicely." Then I asked my inevitable question: "How does birding affect/coloryour day-to-day routine?" And she answered: "As for work, almost all of my writing projects arecentered around birds, even if I'm concentrating on poetry--birds are veryprevalent in my poems. As for my 'free' time, Jeff and I go around the lakea couple of times each month, more when things are really promising. Thisdoesn't seem like nearly enough to me. And despite what some might think,we're don't do this because we're list-crazy. When my parents were raisingmy (four) brothers and me, we often went on drives along the coast oraround the countryside. They didn't go to look at birds specifically, theyenjoyed it, that's all. Both my parents were working full-time, too.Yankee ingenuity? Maybe, but the point is, if you enjoy something, you finda way to make it work, even if you have five kids. I love to go around thelake for the same reasons my parents took us on those rides--for the simplepleasure of visiting familiar places and discovering new ones, for thegreat conversations we always have along the way, and because I love tolook at birds. "Also, we live near Sapsucker Woods. This means that what to some isa family outing is a walk to work for us. Then there's our fire escape..." Since she's in the David Cup, McIlroy, and Yard competitions, Iof course asked her about her various lists: "Despite what my David Cup persona (my evil twin?) would haveyou think, I'm really not much of a lister.' I love to keep lists, butmostly so that I can have the satisfaction of crossing things off them.Bird lists don't work that way. I keep a life list, which was(pathetically) out of date until last December, when I finally caved underMatt Medler's relentless harassment to update it--I guess he thought he hadmore lifers than I do. Ha! For many years, my life list and my NorthAmerican list were one and the same, until I became the vocalist for theAgeless Jazz Band a few years back. Since the band goes to Aruba everyyear (this year, Jeff and I skipped over to Bonaire, too!), I've beenforced to add a new list to distinguish them, using high-tech,state-of-the-art birding equipment: a pen, marking 'x' for lifer, acheckmark for North America only. "I never kept a Basin list until this crazy David Cup thing, which, IFYOU'D BEEN AT THE CUPPER SUPPER THIS YEAR, [That, I'm afraid,was a jab at this columnist!] [yes, but a friendly one--you saw me smile,didn't you, Caissa?] you'd know was the brain child of Bill Evans,Karl David, Steve Kelling, Ken Rosenberg, and I think I can safelyimplicate Kevin McGowan as well. I got a taste for it when Steve Kellingand I had a friendly contest to see who could see more birds on ourbirthdays (a week a part in September). After that, I was hooked into theDavid Cup. Jeff and I figured if we were all going to go that far, thereshould be some vehicle for comparing our monthly totals (preferably in someformat that would allow me to change other Cuppers' scores according to mywhims), and The Cup was born. "Now, Kevin, er, certain of my pals enjoy calling me a 'chaser.'Well, I am, but not necessarily for the 'tick.' If I haven't seen a shrikethis year, say, (by the way, Kevin, I have!), of course I'm going to try tosee it. If you really love birds, how can you not? I did that long beforethe David Cup was a twinkle in Steve Kelling's eye, and will continue to.By the way, I don't keep a New York list." Allison balked at the idea of recounting some particularlymemorable birding adventures. "Thanks, Caissa. You set me up nicely! But...I guess you're right. "This is too big a question for me. Honestly, it overwhelms me.There are so many 'big' birding times in my life, yet so many 'little'birding moments, too. If I told you about one, I'd have to wonder why Ididn't tell you about this one and the next, and so on. I love expoundingabout them in context, though, so when the next Swallow-tailed Kite sweepsinto the Basin, remind me to tell you about the time on Monhegan Island(Maine) that had Jeff leaping over a table the size of a small car . . .

Because birders suffer so many unique trials and tribulations, The Cup hasgraciously provided Cuppers with a kind, sensitive and intuitive columnist,Dear Tick, to answer even the most profound questions, like these...

DEAR TICK:

I've been curious, but afraid to ask: What is up with the Mc-prefix onsome of the [Cayugabirds] posts? - Inquisitive in Ithaca

Dear Inquisitive:

Being an new comer, you obviously don't know about the McBeast.The "Mc" prefix is given to tip off birders that the species posted wasseen in McIlroy territory (town of Ithaca) and therefore any efforts to seesaid bird could result in a "pummeling" by this McBeast. This mysteriouscreature is said to roam the woods of Ithaca, commanded by the voices ofhis masters (they sound a lot like night-migrating thrushes and warblers)and has supposedly been spotted on the lighthouse jetty on foggy eveningsin spring and fall. He looks a lot like Bill Evans, but don't worry, he'sreally not dangerous.

(Send your questions for Dear Tick to The Cup at jw32@cornell.edu)

""""""""" CUP QUOTES """"""""

"Sign me up for another year of fun!" --Anne Kendall

"I have no experience with anything but GH Owls, so my ear should beconsidered untrained, but I heard something owl-like: It was a somewhathigh-pitched -- at or above middle C." --Ben Taft

"Yep, the brother thing is true. But don't worry, we have no similaritiesat all." --Jon Kloppel

"The Northern Shrike was still on Niemi Rd west of Hanshaw this morning."

--Kevin McGowan

"Made my very first "search drive" for a bird - the N. shrike. No luck..."

--Ann Mathieson

"Morning. Fourth visit to Neimi Rd. Sunny, beautiful. Grim: glassedwhole pond area, no luck...Proceed east to Hanshaw. Nothing. Go south...Return once more to intersection. Dot in treetop 300 yards east of Hanshawalong Neimi. Rather horizontal...big head...HEAVY bill!!! Zoom over, getthree-second confirming look before shrike dives down out of sight."

"I guess I paid my shrike dues. This morning I had a long look as theShrike hunted the ponds, using bird boxes for lookout perches."

--John Greenly

"Having just returned from my own 4th unrewarded trip to that locationI really guffawed at John's message! All I've seen are cars of otherbirders asking - have you seen it? no. Surely tomorrow..."

--Marie McRae

"Patricia and I found the Northern Shrike again this morning (Thursday)just north-west of the experimental ponds, but no second Shrike alongHanshaw Road. This afternoon I spoke with Matt Young, who lives veryclose to Shrike's Corners'." --Geo Kloppel

"I couldn't find the meadowlark, but I did have a starling imitating one."