Osborne’s recovery might not last until 2015

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Reforms that deliver lasting growth, including tax simplification, have not been made

Napoleon cited luck as the quality he most desired in his generals. Prime ministers desire the same quality in chancellors. Indeed, that quality is even more valuable in a world of fixed-term parliaments, when PMs have less scope to call elections at a time when the economy seems strongest. So will George Osborne be a lucky chancellor? Will recovery help deliver a Tory triumph in 2015?

The first and most obvious response is that economic growth doesn’t necessarily produce electoral success. “It’s the economy, stupid” entered political folklore with Bill Clinton’s victory in 1992, but it didn’t help his Vice-President,