Airlines Are Likely to Match Southwest’s Fare Increase

THE fourth quarter, when leisure travel sags until the holidays, is one of the busiest times of the year for business travel. Here are some trends for the rest of the year.

First, good news, frequent fliers! Your 13-B seat on American Airlines is no longer likely to inadvertently become Seat 27-D in flight. American has now completed mechanical work that more securely bolts down seats on its fleet of 48 Boeing 757s. The planes were temporarily grounded after some seats came loose on recent flights. The airline is now putting extra locking devices on seats on 49 of its 767s used on international flights, and that work will be completed next weekend.

And next, airfares are stable — or they were last week, when an effort by domestic airlines to raise fares across the board failed when some carriers got cold feet and backed out on Thursday. But on Friday, hours after the expiration of its 40 percent off fare, Southwest Airlines unexpectedly revived the initiative, raising its fares and “virtually assuring this will be the seventh successful hike of the year” by domestic carriers, said Rick Seaney of FareCompare.com.

Photo

Credit
Chris Gash

Incidentally, my advice is always to disregard any fare tips from any reporter who claims to understand fares because, as the screenwriter William Goldman famously said about Hollywood, “Nobody knows anything.” But do consider this in the airlines’ defense: The average round-trip domestic fare has fallen steadily since airlines were deregulated in 1978. In inflation-adjusted 2011 dollars, the average fare, while it has risen since 2010, is still about half what it was in 1979, according to Airlines for America, the airline industry trade group.

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Bad news for fliers, good news for airlines: The airlines continue to reduce seat capacity, grounding many small jets and cutting flights in regional markets that don’t provide sufficient per-passenger revenue. Delta, for example, flew 4.1 percent fewer seats on regional domestic routes in September compared with September 2011 and, in a sign of sagging trans-Atlantic demand, 20 percent fewer seats across the Atlantic. United flew 1.7 percent fewer domestic regional seats and 2.5 percent fewer trans-Atlantic seats in September. Nevertheless, the percentage of seats on United planes, for example, filled by paying customers remained at near-record levels — 85.4 percent domestic and 80.3 percent trans-Atlantic.

Class disparity among passengers is growing. Ignore all talk about the so-called Golden Age of travel in the 1960s. The golden age is now — at least for first- and premium-class passengers on international and even a few domestic long-haul flights. An enclosed personal compartment with a lie-flat bed, in a first-class cabin with bathrooms that have showers? Try Emirates fleet of A380s. Singapore and other airlines also offer trainlike private compartments in first class. The latest premium perk? On Monday, American Airlines announced the gradual introduction of an “entree reservations program” in which first- and business-class customers will be able to review menus and reserve their entree choice before a flight. Of course, passengers traveling in domestic coach on any airline can ensure their own food choices, because they have to bring their own. Call it the brown bag option.

* As more Americans carry guns in general, record numbers of guns are turning up at airport security, carried by passengers who often say they simply forgot they had them. During the seven-day period of Oct. 5 to 11, the Transportation Security Administration reported finding 39 guns, 34 of them loaded, in passengers’ carry-on bags. A few local details: At Kennedy International Airport, screeners found in one passenger’s carry-on bag “a variety of firecrackers, brass knuckles, a large knife, and while we were in the bag, we saw his baggie of marijuana,” according to Bob Burns, one of the officers who writes the T.S.A. Blog. Screeners call the local police when they find guns or drugs. At the Tampa, Fla., airport, screeners found “a knife, a fully loaded magazine, a Kubatan with a spike attachment, and a stun gun designed to appear as a smartphone,” Mr. Burns reported. A Kubatan, for those like me who never heard the word until I looked it up, is a martial arts weapon that can be disguised as a key fob.

As to me, my main personal travel trend is that I’m driving a lot more these days when it’s feasible to avoid airports. I’m also planning a train trip soon from San Diego to San Francisco. And yes, I know that also involves bus rides, because the train doesn’t actually go all the way. A full report shall follow, rest assured.

E-mail: jsharkey@nytimes.com

A version of this article appears in print on October 16, 2012, on page B7 of the New York edition with the headline: Airlines Are Likely to Match Southwest’s Fare Increase. Order Reprints|Today's Paper|Subscribe