Tag: trends

Thursday, December 20, 2018

Daily Writing

Housekeeping

As I mentioned in a previous post I will be in China from December 25th to January 15th. My intent is to continue updating the blog while I am there, but I cannot guarantee that I will be able to post every day. One factor I cannot control is the quality of the internet connection. I don’t plan on using a VPN, so if WordPress doesn’t function well in China, I’m going to be forced to deal with the consequences of that. Even if I can’t post while I’m away I will continue writing and I’m sure I will have many stories to share by January 15th when I return.

Things I was thinking about yesterday

The empty promises of Xi Jinping. What promises specifically? “Reform”?

The Federal reserve is scheduled to raise interest rates 0.25% today. How will the market respond?

Where can we find opportunities in this environment?

What is ‘open interest’?

Why is it significant if LIBOR moves higher (or lower)?

How to improve my technical analysis?

How can I improve the structure of my days?

Trading Log

9:48 AM

Today I spent most of the day casually observing the market and listening to an audiobook by George Magnus titled Red Flags: Why Xi’s China is in Jeopardy. It is an interesting book focused on understanding China’s current problems in 2018 while also examining the historical context behind China’s interests as a modern superpower.

Market Observations

I find it quite interesting how briefly the yield on the US 10-year stayed above 3.00%. The idea that the Chinese were actively selling US treasuries in October and November doesn’t really seem that ridiculous. I don’t understand bonds quite as well as I would like, but I’m having trouble understanding most asset classes in this market environment.

I’m also drawn to the rapidly declining yields of the Brazilian Government Bond. What is the reason behind this? In October the yield on the BGB was almost 11.00%, now it sits at 9.41% as accelerating downward.

How much intellectual property is China accused of taking from the United States per year?

What are the core topics currently?

Eurozone slowdown

US-China trade war tensions

Yesterday I received advice from two very wise people I know. They told me it isn’t necessary to trade every pattern. Often times it is better to wait for a pattern you understand to to ride it. The world consists of large trends which are consisted to even smaller trends.