January 13, 2016

Imea Lowered Soybean Estimate for Mato Grosso

Author: Michael Cordonnier/Soybean & Corn Advisor, Inc.

In their latest assessment of the 2015/16 soybean crop in Mato Grosso, the Mato Grosso Institute of Agricultural Economics (Imea) lowered the production estimate for the state to 27.82 million tons, which is now 0.268 million tons lower than the 2014/15 soybean crop. This is the first year-on-year decline in soybean production in the state since the 2008/09 growing season.

The problem of course was the hot and dry weather during November and December that impacted the early maturing soybeans that were filling pods at the time. Imea lowered the average yield in Mato Grosso to 50.4 sacks per hectare (3,024 kg/ha or 43.8 bu/ac), which is down 0.4 sacks per hectare from their December estimate. Imea left the acreage in the state unchanged at 9.2 million hectares,

The rainfall in the state has improved since late December and that is reflected in an improvement in the crop rating for the state. Imea is now rating the soybean crop at 30% poor to very poor, 39% average, and 32% good to very good. In December, they estimated that 43% of the crop in the state was rated as poor to very poor. The criteria for what is considered poor to very poor are soybeans that are expected to yield below 50 sacks per hectare or 43.5 bu/ac.

In their latest assessment of the Brazilian soybean crop, Conab also lowered the production estimate slightly. They now estimate the 2015/16 Brazilian soybean crop at 102.1 million tons down from 102.45 million estimated a month ago. They also stated that the soybean yields in the state of Parana might decline going forward, but it was too early to say for sure. Their concern for the crop in the state was the high incidences of soybean rust being reported and the persistent wet weather and saturated soils.