Filner recall gearing up for petition drive

Embattled Mayor Bob Filner faces a deadline Monday to submit a statement to organizers of a recall drive saying why he should not be voted out of office in the face of claims that he sexually harassed women and made numerous unwanted advances.

If he does respond by midnight, organizers are required to publish his statement, limiting it to 300 words or less.

Regardless of any response, the petition drive is expected to begin in full force next Sunday, the first day signatures can be collected, said recall spokeswoman, Rachel Laing.

“We know how enthusiastic San Diegans are about signing the petition just based on the number of people who have volunteered to circulate them and have donated money,” Laing said.

Yes
29% (331)

No
71% (811)

1142 total votes.

Recall organizers are hoping to raise at least $500,000 for the effort. They already have some money in the bank, but recall treasurer April Boling would not say how much.

A U-T San Diego/10News Poll released Sunday showed that only 21 percent of San Diegans want Filner to remain in office. Seventy-two percent want him to resign, and 65 percent said they would support a recall if he does not step down.

Amid constant accusations by women and ongoing federal, state and local investigations, the mayor has remained out of sight and unavailable for comment.

In addition to claims about his behavior toward women, the federal investigators are looking into payments to the city by developers that were engineered by the Filner administration. There’s also a call for the county grand jury to start proceedings that could remove the mayor for malfeasance.

A law firm representing Filner in a lawsuit filed by his former communications chief said the mayor completed two weeks of intensive behavioral therapy on Saturday. That came as a surprise because Filner said he had planned to begin the program six days earlier. The law firm said Filner was expected to take this week off for personal time.

The latest call for his resignation came over the weekend from another former ally, John Lee Evans, president of the San Diego Unified School District Board of Trustees.

“He is entitled to due process in any legal proceedings, but at this point he has lost any credibility to be the leader of our city and needs to resign” Evans said in a statement.

Organized labor is the only remaining major political group not to call the 70-year-old mayor’s resignation. The head of the San Diego and Imperial Counties Labor Council, Richard Barrera, is a member of the San Diego Unified school board but has not called for Filner to step down.

As the drama at City Hall plays out, the people seen with the best chances of replacing Filner under a resignation or successful recall are quietly assessing their options, talking to supporters and gauging support.

Among the potential Democratic candidates are City Council President Todd Gloria, former Assemblyman Nathan Fletcher, former state Sen. Christine Kehoe and, more recently, Assemblywoman Toni Atkins.

The most talked about Republicans are Councilman Kevin Faulconer and former Councilman Carl DeMaio, who is currently running for Congress.

The election dynamics would be considerably different depending on whether a recall election is held, or a special election following a Filner resignation.

A recall election would include a separate question to voters about a replacement for Filner if he is removed from office. All candidates would be on that one ballot and the one with the most votes would win, which means a candidate could become mayor with a plurality.

A special election requires a candidate to win a majority, and if that doesn’t happen the top two vote-getters would go to a runoff.

Much depends on who runs. But some handicappers suggest the Republicans’ best chance is with a recall election because the large Democratic voter registration advantage would make gaining a majority difficult for a GOP candidate.

Fletcher has gained a lot of attention from political analysts in part because he built a bipartisan coalition during his third-place finish in last year’s mayoral primary. He's also shown past prowess in raising campaign funds and has wealthy backers ready to fund a mayoral campaign.

Fletcher's a former Republican who switched to independent shortly before the mayoral primary, and then switched again and became a Democrat earlier this year. He’s working in government relations at Qualcomm and lecturing college students. He has said he would be consider running if there’s a vacancy, but the potential candidates generally have been reluctant to talk publicly about their prospects.

Faulconer is seen as having inside track on the Republican side. He’s favored by business-oriented The Lincoln Club and the county Republican Party.

The big unknown is whether DeMaio would suspend his ongoing campaign against freshman Democratic Rep. Scott Peters in the 52nd Congressional District to run for mayor.

DeMaio lost to Democrat Filner last November but has refused to definitively rule out running for mayor again in private discussions with those in Republican circles. Another mayoral bid risks alienating congressional district voters should voters reject him a second time and then he resumes his 2014 race against Peters.

DeMaio has the flexibility under campaign finance laws to transfer a sizable chunk of his roughly $500,000 raised for his congressional bid to a mayoral campaign.

San Diego Mesa College political science professor Carl Luna said he believes Fletcher is in an enviable spot.

“He has the best chances because he will get a lot of support from independents,” Luna said.

DeMaio has also polled well in recent weeks in surveys conducted by U-T San Diego and 10/News, including one showing a virtual dead heat in a head-to-head match-up against Fletcher.

Meanwhile, a Filner resignation would see Gloria installed as the acting mayor until an election was conducted. Barring legal challenges, a recall election probably wouldn’t take place until early next year, according to Laing.

Recall organizers have 39 days from Sunday, Aug. 18, to gather the required 101,597 signatures. That would mean obtaining an average of 2,605 signatures of registered city voters a day. A 30-day extension is allowed if some of the signatures originally submitted are invalid.

Laing said the petition backers anticipate they’ll need the extension.

“We are presuming we are going to need it,” Laing said. “So that would take us to roughly the end of October and then we’d have to get the signatures verified and then the City Council has to schedule an election in 60 to 90 days.”

The local Democratic and the Republican parties and the business-oriented Lincoln Club have said they would not help finance a recall.