WMU football at Toledo: 5 elements of impact

John A. Lacko / Special to the GazetteWestern Michigan quarterback Alex Carder passes near the end of last week's 45-35 win over Ball State, during which the Broncos' offense got back on track, tallying 610 total yards, including 404 passing from Carder.

1. Will WMU’s offense be at full throttle this week?Anyone who watched last week’s 63-60 Northern Illinois win at Toledo knows the Rockets aren’t ever likely to be embroiled in a LSU-Alabama type of defensive struggle. And anyone who’s seen the Broncos’ defense this season realizes WMU isn’t going to win that sort of game, either.

The question for the Broncos is simply, will they be able keep pace with Toledo? They’re capable of doing so — of beating anybody on their schedule, really, on a given day — behind a sometimes dizzying passing attack. Just this month, Carder threw for 479 yards one week, the team rushed for 351 yards another and, last week, WMU tallied 610 yards of total offense.

But there are weeks (two weeks actually) when, for whatever reason, the Broncos don’t have their usual offensive zest. WMU needs quarterback Alex Carder and his receivers to be as they were in October games against Connecticut, Bowling Green and Ball State, and not as they played in season-deflating losses at Northern Illinois and Eastern Michigan.

2. Forcing turnovers — and “turnovers” is plural.No matter what WMU’s offense does Tuesday night, the Broncos aren’t likely to leave the Glass Bowl with a victory if Toledo plays a turnover-free football game. WMU’s defense will give up plenty of yards, several long drives and probably a couple of quick scores to the Rockets. That much is all but certain.

But, at times, the Bronco ‘D’ has also shown a knack for coming up with a critical turnover or fourth-down stop just when it looked like it was being trampled. In last week’s 45-35 win over Ball State, WMU’s defense came up with two interceptions and three stops on fourth down. That’s essentially five turnovers. The Broncos need a minimum of three at Toledo to give their offense a chance.

3. Catching Toledo nursing a hangover.There’s no way last week’s 63-60 nationally televised, division race-altering loss to Northern Illinois didn’t take something out of the Rockets — physically, emotionally or perhaps both. Toledo is no longer in control of the MAC’s West Division and likely no longer feels as good about its defense, which, until last week, had been very un-MAC-like most of this season.

Meanwhile, Western Michigan is coming off a season-saving win over Ball State and an additional three days rest. When the Broncos’ offense is fresh, there’s a difference, mostly seen in the legs of its wideouts. If WMU jumps on the Rockets early as NIU did, this’ll be a game deep into the fourth quarter. NIU isn’t a better team than Toledo, but they were better on special teams and better coached that night. WMU doesn’t have to be the better team, either. Like NIU, it just needs to have the better evening.

Lon Horwedel / Special to the Kalamazoo GazetteToledo wideout Eric Page, shown here last season against Eastern Michigan, has 75 catches this fall.

4. Taking away Eric Page.Teams have struggled to keep Toledo’s stud wideout from torching them this season, just as WMU’s opponents have failed in covering Jordan White, even when they know he’ll be the Broncos’ featured target. Page, who is second in the MAC to White (95 catches) with 75 receptions, caught five touchdown passes last week against Northern Illinois.

The Rockets move him around, like the Broncos do with White, making it difficult to tailor your coverage to him. The last team to really limit Page was Bowling Green, which held Page to six catches and 37 yards while nearly upsetting Toledo in mid-October, falling 28-21. Whatever the formula that day, the Broncos should adopt it.

5. The kicking game.If it wasn’t for Toledo’s somewhat-founded fear of Northern Illinois’ return game — and vice versa — last week’s 63-60 game probably finishes with 40 fewer points. Both teams spent almost the entire night playing with a short field after pop-up kickoffs. The Broncos insist they won’t do this, that they’ll let kicker John Potter boot it and try for the touchback and, if it doesn’t happen, they’ll trust in their coverage unit against Toledo’s Eric Page. It’s probably the right move.

It can’t get much worse than giving up 60 points. Potter also needs to be on target with any field goals from 45 yards and in. This is not a game in which WMU can leave points off the board and win.

PredictionThe mystique of the Glass Bowl is no longer an issue for the Broncos, which recently have had a much more difficult time at Northern Illinois’ Huskie Stadium. Even in the midst of a rough 2009 season, WMU whacked Toledo 58-26 in its aging stadium. The Broncos did so as well in 2007, meaning no player on WMU’s roster has been a part of anything but a victory at Toledo (WMU didn't win their between 1988-2007). It could happen again Tuesday night — this Bronco offense is dangerous enough to beat anyone on its schedule. But it would be an upset.