Wednesday, December 30, 2015

Putin Alienating Even Armenia, Kirillova Says

Paul
Goble

Staunton, December 29 – One of the
supposed constants in Eurasia is that Yerevan will support Moscow regardless of
what it does because of Armenia’s geopolitical situation, but now there are
growing indications that even Yerevan is being alienated by Vladimir Putin’s
aggressive and unpredictable policies, according to Kseniya Kirillova.

Exactly what this means, of course,
is uncertain. The fact that Armenian criticism is indirect, pointed at Moscow’s
regional projects rather than at Moscow itself, may mean that it is simply an
effort by Yerevan to attract Russian attention to its problems and get Moscow
to do more for Armenia than it has so far.

But it may point to something far
more serious for the geopolitics of the region, the growing interest in Russia
of building ties with Azerbaijan and Iran even at Armenia’s expense and
consequently the possibility that Armenia too like so many other post-Soviet
states is ever more unhappy with Putin’s policies and wants at least as
insurance better ties with the West.

In an article for RFE/RL, the San
Francisco-based Russian journalist reports her conversation with David
Shakhnazaryan of the Yerevan Center for Regional Research about the critical
comments Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan delivered at the recent meeting of
the Organization of the Collective Security Treaty (ru.krymr.com/content/article/27453419.html).

In remarks posted on the Armenian
president’s official website, Sargsyan not only criticized that Moscow-led
organization for its failure to defend Armenia against Azerbaijan but also cast
doubt on whether such a structure was needed at all given its inability to
fulfill its mission.

Shakhnazaryan, an opposition
politician as well as an analyst, tells Kirillova that “undoubtedly, in his
appeal, [Sargsyan] has in mind not all the Organization member states but
rather Russia” given Moscow’s dominant role in that institution and thus
implicitly raises the question “What is Armenia doing in such an ineffective
structure?” given its security needs.

He continues: the Organization of
the Collective Security Treaty “was never an organization in the full sense of
the word and represents only a group of countries connected with Russia by security
agreements.”By attacking it, he says,
Sargsyan is showing that Yerevan is capable of “independent moves” and that its
policies “are not defined entirely and completely by Moscow.”

“As we see,” Shakhnazaryan says,
“both in the Organization of the Collective Security Treaty and in Eurasian
formats, no one wants to connect his fate with collapsing structures and with
the already appearing irreversible decline of Russia.”

That is all the more so for Armenia
now given that the US has become both increasingly active in promoting a
resolution of the Karabakh conflict, something Yerevan is more interested in
than Moscow is, and increasingly critical of Baku, something Armenia sees as an
indication of a shift in Washington’s position away from Azerbaijan.

Moscow in contrast has opposed US
efforts on Karabakh and even has officially declared, as Kirillova says, that
“in all international institutions, it intends to speak in defense of
Azerbaijan.”That leaves Moscow and
Yerevan at odds and means, Shakhnazaryan says, that Moscow is “not capable” of
responding adequately from Armenia’s point of view.

Immediately after the meeting of the
Organization of the Collective Security Treaty, Russian media outlets reported
that Sargsyan had attempted to raise the Karabakh issue at that session but was
not able to do so. “In fact,” Shakhnazaryan says, “”Armenian has never raised”
that issue in the Organization, an indication that Sargsyan doesn’t want it
involved in Karabakh.

Given that Putin wants that Eurasian
structures to play the predominant role in such conflicts – or at least wants the
member states to give lip service to that idea – Sargsyan’s new position is
striking. Yerevan isn’t ready or able to break with Moscow entirely, but the
Armenian president’s words underscore his country’s increasing unhappiness with
the Kremlin.