000
FXUS63 KABR 192328 AAA
AFDABR
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
628 PM CDT Mon Mar 19 2018
.UPDATE...
Issued at 623 PM CDT Mon Mar 19 2018
With ongoing snow along the Missouri River increased pops for the
next couple of hours before the precip moves east. Otherwise,
the forecast is on track this evening. Snow totals are still a bit
uncertain as temps remain above freezing and snow continues to
melt as it falls. However, expect snow to start accumulating after
sunset.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 332 PM CDT Mon Mar 19 2018
Main challenges through next 24 hours or so will be snowfall/pcpn.
Latest models still maintain a baroclinic zone across the CWA that
moves slowly east overnight, just a head of advancing mid level
trof. Generally speaking various progs dealing with UVM aren`t
showing much lift through the night, so the relatively minor amounts
of forecasted pcpn look good. The favored areas of the coteau and
Sisseton Hills will probably receive a bit more vs surrounding areas
as is typical. After perusing model soundings, decided to leave out
any dz/fzdz on the tail end of the system. The depth of
LLM/saturation wanes behind the main band and omega looks pretty
weak so will for go mention for now. Another wave may bring some
light snow to the region on Tuesday, but again amounts look fairly
light. Temperatures overnight will be relatively mild given the vast
cloud cover. Tuesday should feature temperatures similar to today,
maybe add few degrees out west if sun is able to break through the
clouds.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 332 PM CDT Mon Mar 19 2018
Expect warm to seasonal normal highs in the 40s, and lows in the 20s
to low 30s. Low pop/low qpf, but still the potential for light
freezing drizzle or freezing rain Tuesday night as we lose the
moisture in the DGZ between 600 and 700mb, and are left with just
moisture below 800mb. Few, if any impacts are expected, as there is
little to no qpf. The 500mb trough will finally edge to our east
late Tuesday afternoon, with the large ridge sliding in from the
western U.S.
Expect the apex of the ridge to be across the Plains States from 00Z
Friday through 00Z Saturday, with bookend lows over just off the
Pacific Northwest, and over the northeast. Still looking for an
elongated trough to set up from southern Alberta through eastern CO
Friday morning. They look to split SD, with the southern low moving
from CO and across KS Friday night into Saturday morning. Expect
breezy south-southeast winds to develop over our cwa for the daytime
hours Friday with 850mb winds of 40-45kts. With plenty of warm air
overhead, much of the precipitation looks to fall as rain. However,
we still have the potential for light snow early Friday morning and
Friday night. Winds look to be the main threat at this point. The
12Z ECMWF is more robust with the moisture sliding in Saturday
morning over our northeastern counties. There is still plenty of
uncertainty in the models for this weekend and early next week. As a
result, will keep a general blended solution going for this time.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 623 PM CDT Mon Mar 19 2018
IFR conditions are prevalent as snow falls across the region. As
snow moves east, IFRvsby will remain as fog/stratus develops.
KMBG/KPIR will improve to MVFR on Tuesday as stratus lifts a
little.
&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Wise
SHORT TERM...TDK
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...Wise