Friday, January 18, 2008

Nevada Whiskey Caucus

Nevada is tomorrow, and the Silver State is the center of attention. If Obama can pull off a win here and in South Carolina, Super Tuesday becomes very interesting while Clinton can create some breathing room by winning with a bit of a margin. On the Republican side, all I know is that I will continue to root for Ron Paul to beat Rudy Guiliani on general principal. I wonder what the Irish bookies are offering on the prospect of a first time winner on either or both sides. Low odds, I am sure, but not impossible odds.

I'll take my winnings, if any, in Makers Mark

Democrats:

Obama by a nose

Clinton pushing hard but beaten by union support

Edwards will start to fade as electability is a concern for his supporters and they start distributing themselves to one of the two front running camps

Kucinich crushes Gravel

Republicans:

Romney as he has had the time and money to organize everywhere

McCain trails by more than a field goal but less than a touchdown

Huckabee

Thompson wakes up and nips at Huckabee's heels

Paul

Guiliani where after his fifth consecutive fourth place finish or worse has the field exactly where he wants them; ahead, better funded, better liked, and overconfident [/snark]

shamanic jumps in with an uh-oh:

My booze is on Fester's list. That's how I'd stack 'em too. What do we do now?

I will note: the day before the NH primary, I made an alcohol-inspired $50 bet with a friend who works nearby that Obama would beat Clinton. He wanted Obama to win, but just believed his gut's insight that Clinton would pull it out. I was very happy all day Tuesday, believing that I had picked up a midget prince's sum of cash, then obviously felt dumb and poor at the end of the night.

I saw him the other evening at his job and told him we needed to talk payment plans, and he balked and told me he couldn't accept money from a friend. That was a damn nice thing of him to do. And his obviously inspired gut tells him that the general will be McCain-Clinton, which caused everyone in the discussion (all liberals) to ponder the relative merits of voting for McCain. It's interesting how that happens when we imagine Clinton as the nominee.

Cernig I think the Ayatollah From Arkansas still has more God-fearing, constitution-amending supporters out there than the conservative establishment and blogs are giving him credit for. This is the big one the Dominionists have been after for decades after all, the promise to end any separation of church and state - they're going to mobilise the troops. My gut feeling (hey, it's good enough for Chertoff on national security matters) is that the GOP primary will end: Huck, Romney, McCain, Fred. On the donk side, I think Clinton will edge it this time (mind you, I said the same about Obama in NH) followed by Obama then Edwards. The rest don't matter now except as gadlfies to the frontrunners and Fred is rapidly heading for the same status.

Libby Picks:I don't really have a read on Nevada. I base my predictions mainly on anectodal sociological observations and I don't know much about the southwest, so I'm in wild guess territory on this one. I'm going to take Clinton again in a close contest with Obama second and Edwards a distant but decent third.

On the GOP side, I have to agree with the consensus here. Romney, but maybe with not as wide a win as Fester and Sha are predicting. Huckabee and McCain will be closely contested in second and I'm conflicted on this one. I'm inclined to call it for Huck just to be a contrarian but I do want to win that booze, so I'm calling it for McCain by a hair. I'm also conflicted on Thompson and Paul for fourth but I have to call it for Fred and again, I think it will be razor close. The only prediction I'm confident in making is that Rudy will come in under Ron Paul again. Meanwhile, I'm sticking to Bushmills for my prize.