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Copyright 2014, Mansueto Ventureshttp://blogs.law.harvard.edu/tech/rssen-usSun, 02 Aug 2015 20:23 +0000slabarre@fastcompany.com (Suzanne LaBarre)Sun, 02 Aug 2015 20:23 +0000faster@fastcompany.com (Fast Company)TXJP (0.0.1)innovationethonomicsgoodworld changing ideas/asset_files/static/logos/fastcodesign/design-fb-icon_big.pngCo.Design//www.fastcodesign.com
Inspiring stories about innovation and business, seen through the lens of design.484815 Tech Trends That Will Define 2014, Selected By Frog<p>Through a pessimistic lens, 2013 looked like the dystopian future we've been warned about. We learned the <a href="http://www.fastcompany.com/3012652/tracking/tracking-the-nsas-secret-surveillance-programs" target="_self">NSA can spy on our every word</a>, right as Google <a href="http://www.fastcodesign.com/1669474/what-googles-glasses-need-to-succeed-prada-and-gucci" target="_self">shared a breakthrough product</a> that could put a camera and microphone on everyone's face. Amazon wanted to <a href="http://www.fastcompany.com/3022510/fast-feed/faster-than-a-speeding-drone-uk-bookseller-has-a-competitor-to-amazons-unmanned-de" target="_self">replace UPS</a> with autonomous drones, but the humans who weren't downsized would soon be driven door to door by an <a href="http://www.fastcoexist.com/1682395/imagining-a-future-city-filled-with-driverless-cars-and-without-any-parking-spaces" target="_self">emasculating robot chauffeur</a>. So what will 2014 bring? Frog design expects that this is the year of technological kickback, when privacy goes mainstream and we take the reins on our own quantified self, when artists tame 3-D printers and we learn to unplug. And yes...when drones, <a href="http://www.fastcompany.com/3022489/innovation-agents/self-driving-cars-let-go-of-the-wheel" target="_self">driverless cars</a>, and the digital dragon that is China rise to change our economy, and our lives, forever.</p>
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<h4><a name="Anonymity_Will_Go_Mainstream">Anonymity Will Go Mainstream</a></h4></p>
<p>The age of indiscriminate sharing on social networks is rapidly changing. In 2013 we learned of NSA leaks, privacy debacles, and massive inquiries into our digital lives. Simultaneously, a social platform based on transmitting communications with minimal digital tracks was valued at $4 billion. This isn't a coincidence; scrutiny is playing an important role in how we sculpt our digital personas. In 2014 we'll see an influx of platforms catering to a digital experience grounded in anonymity. The rise of "The Snapchats" is going mainstream.—<em>John Leonard, Adam Silver, and Carlos Elena-Lenz</em></p>
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<h4><a name="Drones_Everywhere_And_Rapidly_Evolving">Drones. Everywhere. And Rapidly Evolving.</a></h4></p>
<p>Autonomous, miniature flying machines are nothing new. But they are more common than ever before. Soon, advancements in drone technology will make the sky a place ripe for innovation, leading to a proliferation of airborne applications. The design implications are huge, from the drones themselves down to the ecosystems that support them.—<em>Adam Pruden, Eric Boam, and Carlos Elena-Lenz</em></p>
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<h4><a name="Disconnecting_in_the_Modern_Digital_World">Disconnecting in the Modern, Digital World</a></h4></p>
<p>You will step into a library and disconnect. The theater will hush and your GPS will shut off. The dark zone in your home will allow you to sink into a chair, web-free, and muse. Faraday Zones, as frog strategist Timothy Morey calls them, will become a ubiquity in 2014. From these dodgy origins, they will find mainstream acceptance on trains, planes, and automobiles, as well as certain public spaces such as libraries and cinemas. Back-to-nature resorts and vacation spots will pile on, offering the opportunity to be "beyond reach."—<em>Timothy Morey</em></p>
<h4><a name="Rise_of_the_Chinese_Internet_Giants">Rise of the Chinese Internet Giants</a></h4>
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<p>In 2014, the world will discover WeChat. With its user base of 300 million and an innovative offering, including instant messaging, group chat, content sharing, payments, and e-commerce, WeChat has evolved from a messaging application to a truly integrated mobile Internet platform. Not only will they unseat Facebook, WeChat will also disrupt the enterprise communications, financial services, and retail industries on a large scale. —<em>Steve Boswell</em></p>
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<h4><a name="Mind_Control">Mind Control!</a></h4></p>
<p>If someone from the 1500s came to us now and looked at what technology has enabled us to do, they'd think we were superhuman. In 2014, we'll make even greater advancements. Our ability to control objects with our minds will be within reach as more companies look toward experiences that directly harness electrical signals from our brain. —<em>Kenji Huang</em></p>
<h4><a name="Augmented_Reality">Augmented Reality</a></h4>
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<p>Technology has always helped us solve problems and extend our potential. Until now our technological tools were external add-ons, largely separate from our bodies. Today they are evolving on a new path integrating with our physiology; we are "hacking" the human body and the senses. Wearable technology, such as Google Glass, is an example of the first generation of consumer products that is changing the way we think about technology extending our potential. But it's only the beginning: system-powered exoskeletons, and bionic arms, feet, and eyes, are the next phase. —<em>Antonio De Pasquale</em></p>
<h4><a name="SelfDriving_Cars">Self-Driving Cars</a></h4>
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<p>Our cars will tuck themselves into a driveway or garage with precision, leading to the convenience of being able to begin the ritual exit of the vehicle—gathering belongings, checking smartphones, looking for sunglasses—early. Self-driving cars are on the horizon in 2014, with practical elements like self-parking paving the way.</p>
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<h4><a name="The_Internet_of_Things_Goes_To_Art_School">The Internet of Things Goes To Art School</a></h4></p>
<p>Everything around us is getting smarter. As the Internet of Things becomes ubiquitous, smart technology will move beyond "practical" uses (medical, fitness, security, etc.) and into more subjective, artistic scenarios. Riding the wave of connecting sensors, devices, and people, digitally augmenting live music performances will enhance the audience experience and deliver more entertainment value. —<em>Robert Tuttle</em></p>
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<h4><a name="Data_Rich_and_Full_of_Value">Data, Rich and Full of Value</a></h4></p>
<p>The technology we use creates an abundance of data. That "digital exhaust" can take myriad forms, from descriptive data to data about product use and compatibility. In 2014, the quality and richness of this data will be the most refined and top-notch it has ever been. —<em>Patrick Kalaher</em></p>
<p><br />
<h4><a name="The_Reinterpretation_of_Craft">The Re-interpretation of Craft</a></h4></p>
<p>At a time when every new piece of tech or service seems to be an app or digital entity, we're craving the tangible. Nike is a leader in reviving craft and skill, by combining advanced materials and 3-D printing. Next year will fundamentally change the way we think of mass-produced objects, with the rise of emotionally driven customizations and stylized "imperfections." —<em>Mark Wheedon</em></p>
<p><br />
<h4><a name="Bucking_the_Price_Norm">Bucking the Price Norm</a></h4></p>
<p>For years it was a common industry belief that very few people would shell out more than $100 for a pair of headphones. Then Beats by Dre dropped in and recalibrated an industry. They showed the world that people were willing to pay for a premium design and bass heavy sound all wrapped in an outstanding aspirational brand. Industries are waking up to the fact that people are eager to purchase products at prices never before considered, provided those products deliver excellent design and user experience. Good design involves envisioning a product and user experience from the ground up. For disruptive companies that can do that effectively, the sky's the limit. —<em>Cormac Eubanks</em></p>
<aside class="pullquote"><q>Next year will fundamentally change the way we think of mass-produced objects.</q></aside>
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<h4><a name="The_Uberfication_of_Services">The Uber-fication of Services</a></h4></p>
<p>San Francisco startup Uber has led the revolution of personal transportation: Click to order, and minutes later your personal, quality-checked driver arrives, with the payment taken care of behind the scenes. 2014 will see this "on-demand" model extend across other personal services, from home maintenance to dog walking. Appliance repair person? Your device says they're only three minutes away. —<em>Michael Robertson</em></p>
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<h4><a name="The_Consumer_Will_Own_Data">The Consumer Will Own Data</a></h4></p>
<p>With companies like Google, Facebook, and Twitter making billions of dollars from what is essentially aggregated and analyzed user data, there will be a counter-movement of user-controlled data ownership (and even user-controlled data monetization) growing stronger over time. To quote a colleague here, ''If you're not paying for it, you're not the customer—you're the product being sold." 2014 will be the year of data reclamation! —<em>Annie Hsu</em></p>
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<h4><a name="Quantified_Self_at_the_Office">Quantified Self at the Office</a></h4></p>
<p>How long you slept and how fast you ran won't be the only quantified elements of your life. Quantifying your time at work will become the norm: How, when, and where you spend your time at work will be automatically captured and translated into timesheets, project management software, and analytics dashboards. Expect debates about privacy rights and coercive versus caring uses of the technology—<em>Clint Rule</em></p>
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<h4><a name="Reinvention_of_the_PC_as_productivity_tool">Reinvention of the PC as productivity tool</a></h4></p>
<p>Device manufacturers are primarily focusing their innovation on the high-volume mobile device market and the booming sales numbers of smartphones and tablets. But these consumption/communication-optimized devices aren't a good replacement for the PC when it comes to creation and productivity tasks. And yet no one is investing in its future. A reinvigorated interest in computing tools to make things will be news in 2014. —<em>Tjeerd Hoek</em></p>Froghttp://www.fastcodesign.com/3024464http://www.fastcodesign.com/3024464/15-tech-trends-that-will-define-2014-selected-by-frog?partner=rss
http://www.fastcodesign.com/3024464/15-tech-trends-that-will-define-2014-selected-by-frog?partner=rss#commentsWed, 08 Jan 2014 12:30 +0000delivery dronesFrog Designnikeself-driving carsnapchatsUberWhat's The Roadmap For Innovation In China?<p>China's Four Great Inventions—papermaking, the compass, gunpowder, and printing—were innovations from bygone eras. When looking at China's history over the past 50 years, it's very difficult to find a single innovation that has made a significant impact on the world. Instead, the "Chinese version of something Western" phenomenon has characterized much of China's recent product launches. For example, Taobao.com is essentially the Chinese version of eBay, and Youku.com is the Chinese version of YouTube.</p>
<p>Whether China can shed its copycat reputation and become a source of global innovation has become a constant source of debate. While the country's economy has been growing at an astonishing rate, with an increasingly sophisticated domestic market, the country's highly centralized government and weak intellectual property system have severely hampered China's standing as a global innovator. It may be too simplistic to assume that the notion of innovation is understood, standardized, and commonly defined across the world. China is considered the world's largest developing market, displaying characteristics of other emerging markets as well as its own wholly unique notions of success. The simple concept of innovation is very nuanced in China and can be deeply understood only by listening to Chinese consumers and analyzing what has and hasn't worked in the marketplace thus far.</p>
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<p><strong><h2><a name="Chinese_consumers_now_set_new_standards">Chinese consumers now set new standards</a></h2></strong></p>
<p>While the macro-economic view of China's innovation is well covered, the point of view of the Chinese consumer is less known. The following are some of the more common characteristics that Chinese consumers give when asked to define innovation, based on frog's design research interviews and consumer insights survey.</p>
<h2><a name="b1_A_different_definition_of_being_firstb"><strong>1. A different definition of being "first"</strong></a></h2>
<p>When you ask a white-collar, mass-affluent Chinese consumer what characteristics signify an innovative company, the first thing that will come to mind is whether the company is first to market. If you probe a little deeper on what this means, you soon realize that this is not about being a "pioneer" in terms of new technology or design, or being the first to do something no other company has done before. Instead, being innovative is more about being the first to achieve commercial success. To innovate is to win. Take China's most active social networking site (SNS) Sina Weibo, for example. "No SNS has reached the scale that Sina Weibo has reached," says Bella, a Beijing-based editor in her late 20s.</p>
<p>Many Chinese consumers view Sina Weibo as the most innovative Chinese-branded product, not because it is the first SNS to combine the functionality of Twitter and Facebook seamlessly, but for being the first SNS to achieve popularity among the Chinese white-collar segment. The popular sentiment regarding Weibo, or any other company for that matter, is that if everyone seems to be using and loving it, the product must be innovative—and cool.</p>
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<p><strong><h2><a name="2_Constant_updates_to_keep_a_product_or_service_fresh">2. Constant updates to keep a product or service fresh</a></h2></strong></p>
<p>The second characteristic that, according to popular Chinese consumer sentiment, makes a company innovative is how often it launches new features. Chinese consumers associate companies that are good at doing so with continuous improvement and change, which is reflected in the booming economic development in Tier 1 cities. Dianping, one of China's leading restaurant review sites with more than 40 million active users to date, launched in early 2003, almost two years before Yelp in the United States, and has since expanded the site to offer a range of related products that piggyback on users' love of dining out. For instance, users can earn VIP cards or a retail coupon book for discounts at certain restaurants. Dianping has also recently extended its reach to offer discounts to entertainment and daily service venues. Last year, the company launched its mobile application that included a group-buy offering (similar to Groupon). Chinese consumers feel that there is always some new enhancement to look forward to from Dianping, unlike its competitor Taobao, whose product offering and "look and feel" haven't changed since it was launched in the same year as Dianping, nearly a decade ago.</p>
<p>"I don't think Taobao is innovative even though I can find anything that I want on their site," says 28-year-old Jodi, a project manager from Shanghai. "Its business model and the look and feel of its Web site haven't changed at all since I started to use it when I was in university." Taobao is likely to continue to dominate the market because it's become a basic necessity as an easy-to-use, one-stop online shopping site and it's considered a commodity, albeit a step behind smaller, foreign rivals such as Amazon. This position potentially leaves Taobao more vulnerable and slower to respond to outside competition.</p>
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<h2><a name="b3_Customer_service_rulesb"><strong>3. Customer service rules</strong></a></h2>
<p>Last but not least, mass-affluent Chinese consumers also believe that companies that can provide exceptional customer experiences are innovative. Extraordinary services are still rare in China, so companies that do it well leave a strong, lasting impression on their customers. Haidilao, a popular Chinese hot-pot restaurant chain provides thoughtful service for its customers waiting for a table, including free manicures, games, shoe shines, and Internet TV. Wait staff are trained to interact with customers warmly, attentively, and with a high level of enthusiasm.</p>
<p>Another example of standout service in China is 360buy, China's biggest 3C (Computer, Communication, and Consumer electronics) online retailer. It is famous throughout the country for its efficient customer service and after-sales support. "I buy almost everything on 360buy," says 23-year-old Andy, a consultant currently working in Beijing. "The whole buying experience, especially their after-sales support is thoughtful and so is their attention to detail." 360buy guarantees that customers ordering before 11 a.m. will receive their products by 6 p.m. the same day. Similarly, orders placed before 11 p.m. are fulfilled by 9 a.m. the next morning. Each delivery person is equipped with a smartphone-sized point-of-sale terminal to allow customers to pay with a bank debit card upon receipt of their orders. Furthermore, the company has a "100-minute" policy wherein all product complaints receive a response within an hour and 40 minutes of the complaints being lodged.</p>
<p><strong><h2><a name="Opportunities_for_companies_trying_to_innovate_in_China">Opportunities for companies trying to innovate in China</a></h2></strong></p>
<p>Domestic competition within China is among the fiercest anywhere in the world. With foreign companies already having success on the vast mainland, understanding their strategies for success has become increasingly critical for Chinese companies. The types of innovation we see working have varying degrees of success across industries. Whether they are appropriate depends on so many variables—whether you're a modern Chinese private company, a state-owned enterprise (SOE) or former SOE, a foreign multinational, or a startup. Here we'll outline a few of the key innovation strategies that have proven to succeed in China.</p>
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<p><strong><h2><a name="Innovation_through_acquisition">Innovation through acquisition</a></h2></strong></p>
<p>Understandably the most common type of innovation seen in China, acquisition presupposes that it's better in the long run to gain new ideas, processes, customers, and market potential by investing in those who have already achieved innovation (or proven they know how to innovate), rather than spending the time and resources to do it internally. In recent years, scores of Chinese companies have swallowed up major ailing Western brands such as PC-maker Lenovo, which had previously bought IBM and currently sponsors the NFL in the U.S., in the hopes of acquiring not only Western innovation and IP but also the mind of the Western consumer. The best approach seems to be to buy low, optimize ailing parts of the business, and leave the core experts alone to make great products and services (e.g., Volvo being acquired by Geely in 2010). Acquisition is not mutually exclusive to other strategies, and companies that put all their eggs in one basket run the risk of having their innovations not translate from their Western organizations to their Chinese counterparts (or vice versa).</p>
<h2><a name="bMicroinnovation_is_changing_China_stepbystepb"><strong>Micro-innovation is changing China step-by-step</strong></a></h2>
<p><em>"It is better to take many small steps in the right direction<br />
than to make a great leap forward only to stumble<br />
backward." —Old Chinese Proverb</em></p>
<p>Micro-innovation is the strategy of competing not by offering larger, completely new products and services but by gradually improving existing ideas. Micro-innovation also allows for a cheaper and more efficient process of launching new products, or new ideas—compared to launching fresh R&amp;D projects and hoping that they result in viable products. The prescription for micro-innovation is simple: Start with what works and slowly tweak it. The downside of a micro-innovation strategy is that it can be extremely risk-averse, to the point where wrong situations lead to stagnation instead of real improvement.</p>
<p>This is a common approach to innovation among Chinese firms because many executives believe that planning for product launches too far in advance in the face of rapidly changing market preferences can be strategically disastrous. As a product manager of Tencent, a leading Chinese ISP, told frog, "Chinese consumers' technology preferences change every month. We have to launch products incrementally to get the latest market reaction. We would lose our competitive edge if we tried to launch a perfect product one year from now. We would be really out of touch with the market."</p>
<p>In recent history, in other markets around the world (and namely in the United States), companies have looked to celebrate the grandiose idea, the disruptive new product or service. In China, disruption is sometimes rejected as being imprudent.</p>
<p><strong><h2><a name="Remixing_is_the_healthiest_form_of_competition">Remixing is the healthiest form of competition</a></h2></strong></p>
<p>Remixing is the acceptance that "co-option" is not only OK but crucial to the spread of ideas and making products better. More and more, Chinese companies are willing to co-opt a marketing slogan, an idea, a way of distribution, or a product feature (whether foreign or domestic) and make it their own—with lightning-fast results. This is often referred to broadly as Shanzhai, a very powerful force to be reckoned with. But it's more than just Shanzhai; remixing is the mindset that both business and consumers have come to expect from some of their favorite domestic brands. If a company can only create one good product and not improve on it, in a fierce competitive market, they're as good as dead in the water. That's why any startup in China that wants to get funding needs to have a six-month release strategy that anticipates being copied, and a strategy of how to stay ahead. Remixing is about judging the competition and co-opting their ideas, but without pushing boundaries. Taken too far, a brand can instantly cease to be trustworthy in the minds of fickle Chinese consumers and be perceived of as more reflective of last year's fad than as currently "hip."</p>
<p><strong><h2><a name="Masscraft_is_driving_a_new_soul_of_engineering">Mass-craft is driving a new soul of engineering</a></h2></strong></p>
<p>Mass-craft is a form of engineering-driven design collaboration that requires companies to be acutely aware of their capabilities to create beyond just the superficial, and use that awareness to drive creation. It's about understanding the materials, the code, the moving parts, the pixels and plastics, and what's feasible versus what's merely paper-ware (i.e., just a great concept). The greatest benefit of a mass-craft approach is that it encourages design and engineering teams to make decisions first and foremost based on practical, real-world possibilities.</p>
<p>The best Chinese companies at the heart of this movement are not only creating their products faster, but they're doing it while starting to understand what consumers truly need. Many leading Internet companies in China, such as Alipay, Tencent, and Baidu, have hundreds of designers cranking out nearly every permutation of a possible design before quantitatively testing out what works with consumers. This is considered too risky by some executives because it could potentially lead to an over-reliance on consumer feedback, lack of internal responsibility, and failure to judge accurately what's going to be successful in the market. But at its core, mass-craft is at the soul of modern industrial and software design—a process dictated by understanding the materiality of what's being made while still making it inexpensively for hundreds of millions—if not billions—of customers who have expressed the need or desire for a certain type of product.</p>
<p>Chinese innovation is discovering its voice, but not without significant influence from both outside market forces and listening to consumer demands. The smartest organizations already realize this, and are undergoing a kind of cultural change that internalizes these forces.</p>
<p><em><strong>—Written by Brandon Berry Edwards, Lilian Tse, and Vivian Weng</strong></em></p>
<p><em>Brandon Berry Edwards (Executive Creative Director), Lilian Tse (Program Manager) and Vivian Weng (Senior Strategist) are responsible for designing meaningful strategies, products and services for frog's clients in Asia. All three are based in Shanghai, China.</em></p>
<p><em>This article is from frog's publication <a href="http://www.frogdesign.com/insights" target="_blank">Insights_China</a>, a new report that offers direct, in-the-field discoveries of consumers' habits and aspirations, combined with deep, data-driven analyses of contemporary trends in China. To find out more about the Little Emperor survey, click <a href="http://www.frogdesign.com/insights" target="_blank">here</a>.</em></p>Froghttp://www.fastcodesign.com/1672078http://www.fastcodesign.com/1672078/whats-the-roadmap-for-innovation-in-china?partner=rss
http://www.fastcodesign.com/1672078/whats-the-roadmap-for-innovation-in-china?partner=rss#commentsFri, 08 Mar 2013 16:45 +0000ChinaconsumersFrog DesignSurveyDesignInnovation Engine20 Tech Trends That Will Define 2013, Selected By Frog<p>Yes, it's already that transitional time when our current year ends and another begins, and today and tomorrow are quickly changing hands. Rather than look back at significant trends of the past 366 days (2012 was a leap year, remember?), we asked a wide variety of technologists, designers, and strategists across Frog's studios around the world to take a look to the future. The near future, that is. "Near" in that 2013 is not only upon us, but also "near" in that these technologies are highly feasible, commercially viable, and are bubbling up to the surface of the global zeitgeist. We believe you'll be hearing a lot more about these trends within the next 12 months, and possibly be experiencing them in some form, too.</p>
<h3><a name="Smartphone_accessories_become_smarter">Smartphone accessories become smarter</a></h3>
<p><strong>Assistant Vice President of Strategy Timothy Morey, San Francisco</strong></p>
<p>I recently interviewed a doctor who had used <a href="http://www.fastcodesign.com/1671371/this-200-iphone-case-is-an-fda-approved-ekg-machine" target="_self">AliveCor</a>'s iPhone ECG on a flight to diagnose a fellow traveler with a heart attack. The device is an iPhone cover with sensors, and the doctor's diagnosis led to an emergency landing to get the passenger to the hospital. (Yes, he lived.) The iPhone ECG is a dramatic example of a plethora of devices I expect to see come to market through 2013—smart accessories for smartphones.</p>
<p>Smartphones have always had a thriving accessory market, from covers to keyboards, but smart accessories are more than just accessories with sensors. They herald the establishment of smartphones as the primary computing and connectivity hub linking people to the network. Beyond 2013, our phones will be the center of a sensor network around our bodies, offices, homes, and cars, and eventually the very cities and spaces we live in. But in 2013, we will take the first step in this journey with smart accessories.</p>
<h3><a name="We_lose_control_of_our_cars">We lose control of our cars</a></h3>
<p><strong>Creative Director Katie Dill, San Francisco </strong></p>
<p>Our cars are becoming ever more automated. They are parallel parking themselves, monitoring our speed while in cruise control, and now they're even helping us steer. With cameras, sensors, and robust computer intelligence, the car is getting smarter and more self-sufficient.</p>
<p>Americans have long looked at the road and the ability to drive as a sign of freedom and control. Yet in the U.S., fewer 20- and 30-year-olds are getting their driver's licenses than in previous years. This is a trend seen across wealthy nations with high Internet usage. Could our Internet connection be our new driver's license—the conduit to connect, explore, and socialize? Perhaps the car isn't what it once was; now it is merely a way from point A to point B, not a symbol of freedom that a smartphone is. Marry this new reality with safety and energy concerns, and automated vehicles get more attractive. Google's Sergey Brin claims that in 2017, "Google's self-driving cars will be available for everyone." This may seem bold, but it's not science fiction either. According to a survey from J.D. Power and Associates, of 17,400 vehicle owners, more than a third (37%) of all respondents said they would be interested in purchasing a fully autonomous car (if price weren't a factor).</p>
<p>Meanwhile, many car companies are getting into the automated vehicle race (including BMW, GM, Volvo, Volkswagen, Mercedes-Benz, Cadillac), and as infrastructure increases to support them, the trend is likely to accelerate.</p>
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<h3><a name="We_embrace_a_new_type_of_patina">We embrace a new type of patina</a></h3>
<p><strong>Vice President of Creative and Software Innovation Paul Pugh, Austin</strong></p>
<p>A key aspect missing from the mobile experience today is the concept of patina, or the wearing that comes with regular use. In the physical world, this might be the dog-eared pages of a favorite book or the small scratch on an LP that occurred at a rocking party. This slight degradation in quality is actually part of the story and part of our culture. The miniaturized and regenerated versions of our legacy are more often sanitized pointers. The next advance in mobile comes not from further miniaturization of our lives into a smaller package but rather the unpacking of those experiences into the environments around us. Mobile becomes a halo that surrounds us and travels with us wherever we go.</p>
<p>Devices on our bodies will multiply. Sensors, cameras, input methods, and displays will work their way into our clothing. They'll listen for commands and whisper in our ears. Our environment will respond to us in new and interesting ways. The proliferation of large displays and projection technologies will relegate the small display on our phone to private or a constrained set of tasks. A new layered interaction model of touch, voice, and gesture will emerge as important as consumption: the continuous exchange of what we are doing, where we are, and who we are with. This will again work into the collective memory, attaching to our legacy—bringing in a new type of patina effect. It won't be the same as physical degradation yet will offer fresh stimuli that allow for more meaningful navigation and recall.</p>
<h3><a name="Humancomputer_interaction_gets_more_humanistic">Human-computer interaction gets more humanistic</a></h3>
<p><strong>Chief Creative Officer Mark Rolston, Austin</strong></p>
<p>In 2013, we will come to the conclusion that the technology industry is overdue to create the next model for human-computer interaction. The old PC model has peaked. The world yawns at the introduction of yet another iPad, Android handset, Windows release, or super-thin laptop.</p>
<h3><a name="Apps_become_invisible">Apps become invisible</a></h3>
<p><strong>Executive Creative Director Thomas Sutton, Milan </strong></p>
<p>Some recent popular visions of the future focus on making every available surface into a computing interface, and every moment or action of the day into a computing interaction. But pundits who prescribe such visions also ignore what's really happening. Computers are dissolving in three directions—into the cloud, into the environment, and into our bodies—but as they do so they are reducing or losing altogether what we would traditionally call an "interface."</p>
<p>Metaphorically, if a laptop browser is a window on the web, a smartphone application is a keyhole, then the next generation of smart devices, applications, and services will be pinpricks.</p>
<p>Services like the Nest learning thermostat and Siri show some early indications of what this can mean. Sound, voice, body sensors, location, and movement can be used as explicit or implicit input/output mechanisms. Vast amounts of cloud-based computing power can resolve ambiguous instructions, understand behavioral patterns over time, and reduce "answers" to their simplest and most digestible form: a couple of words (Siri) or a single numerical value (Nest). Our hands, eyes, and minds are free to engage with the real world and real people around us.</p>
<p>In 2013, I expect to see an increasing number of services that follow this paradigm while exploiting today's mobile phones. I call these "invisible apps," because they shun flashy infographics and rich GUIs in favor of minimal, timely, personal, and humanized content. They represent first steps toward a future of technologically supported simplicity.</p>
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<h3><a name="We_face_more_tech_disruptionby_nature">We face more tech disruption—by nature</a></h3>
<p><strong>Principal Designer Michael McDaniel, Austin</strong></p>
<p>In 2013, I believe Mother Nature will be a major disruptor and will have profound, far-reaching impacts on technology in general. Hurricane Sandy impacted the densely populated northeastern United States with a painful punch in late 2012, but with a few months of recovery, in 2013 we will start harvesting ideas that promise to help people and communities become more resilient when facing such a large-scale tragedy, when lives, homes, and livelihoods were deeply affected—or even destroyed.</p>
<p>The reaction to the widespread and sustained loss of power in the New York City area after Sandy will start spurring tech innovation in energy and storage. I think that the next titan of industry, along the lines of Gates or Rockefeller, will be the person who invents better power storage, not a new form of power generation. Better power storage not only keeps things humming when all else fails but allows all sorts of things to become practical, from electric cars to green energy sources such as solar and wind.</p>
<p>Hurricane Sandy painfully illustrated how fragile a centralized power grid is. Hopefully, one positive after-effect of the storm's impact will be the emergence of new forms of power storage to rival the energy density found in a single tank of gasoline.</p>
<h3><a name="Data_ecology_becomes_more_diverse">Data ecology becomes more diverse</a></h3>
<p><strong>Creative Director Scott Nazarian, Seattle </strong></p>
<p>Data is becoming a critical material in the sustainable success of cities. The flow of information, if analyzed wisely, will help the strongest cities of the future survive natural disasters and population spikes, among other challenges.</p>
<p>Data production and consumption continues at an inexorable pace, creating ever-more symbiotic feedback loops across both data types and physical experience. There is not just one stream of "data" waiting to be sifted through, across cities, nations, and the globe—although in many ways we tend to speak of data currently as one enormous, abstract entity.</p>
<p>One example of a coming interweaving of various data flows and physicality is the UID project now in motion throughout India, which seeks to provide biometric identification for Indian citizens. This initiative, in the world's second-most populous nation, will likely introduce unprecedented (biometric-to-digital) data-scale thresholds in the very near future. This new scale promises to trigger emergent experience and interaction needs. The accretion of "new data" (personal/contextual) will begin to intersect over time with "big data" (archival) structures, yielding unprecedented "tertiary data"—it begs us to wonder, what will we do with this information? What are the business implications? The civic ones? Will we create new types of urban experiences that reflect our analyses of data foremost, versus our creative or philosophical visions? An incredibly diverse data ecology will set the stage in 2013 for the next generation of municipal and private sector innovations.</p>
<h3><a name="Our_relationships_with_our_smartphones_get_more_physical">Our relationships with our smartphones get more physical</a></h3>
<p><strong>Technology Director Matteo Penzo, Milan </strong></p>
<p>In 2013, the combination of 20-nanometer processors (ARM, Intel, and Apple are planning launches for Q2/Q3) and 4G networks becoming available in most countries will alter how we use our smartphones. Higher computational power, reduced energy consumption, and faster data communication in our hands will accelerate the development of biometric applications, such as the authentication of the eye or fingerprints through a hand-held device's camera.</p>
<p>This will play a big role in sensitive applications such as mobile banking or payments. Pairing biometric authentication with voice-based logins will start becoming the norm, granting us faster and more secure access to information. As a result, private databases storing bio-information will arise, fueling startup and funding action in this area.</p>
<p>We can look forward to a time when the authentication layer won't be based on our human memory anymore. In 2013, we'll move closer to a time when we won't be forced to rely on easily forgettable (and not very secure) passwords because each of us, with our biological individuality, will become our own password.</p>
<h3><a name="Faces_become_interfaces">Faces become interfaces</a></h3>
<p><strong>Executive Creative Director of Global Insights Jan Chipchase, San Francisco </strong></p>
<p>Starting in 2012, the cues to signal recognition (and the social literacy around those cues) are set to change. Currently, personalized greetings are commoditized: Restaurant workers ask your name and then shout it when your order is ready; we receive customized spam messages and automated birthday wishes. Increasingly, this trend toward the value of commoditized recognition will be supplemented by the use of facial recognition software.</p>
<p>Ubiquitous cameras in retail displays, in hotels, in the palms of our hands via our smartphones, point toward our faces. Soon, algorithms will match them with photos, and then connect us with related personal and professional information on us available online. In 2013, as faces increasingly become interfaces, we will begin dealing with new questions around the loss of physical anonymity. And some professions—researchers, undercover cops, spies, journalists—whose livelihoods depends on not being recognizable, are in for a bumpy ride. While such careers will be destroyed by real-time recognition, others will be enabled, as there will be new legions of people that will become the true "faces" of brands.</p>
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<h3><a name="Automated_intelligence_aids_our_digital_doppelgngers">Automated intelligence aids our digital doppelgängers</a></h3>
<p><strong>Executive Technology Director Robert Tuttle, Austin </strong></p>
<p>Monitoring and responding to the ever-increasing volume and complexity of the various feeds, threads, walls, streams, notifications, updates, and requests that permeate our digital lives has long become a full-time job. Current personal, professional, and commercial social-networking services offer relatively crude aggregation and classification interaction models for managing and directing our online personas. In 2013, we'll be able to find more qualified hired help.</p>
<p>Emerging tools and services will help translate our needs and desires into cloud-based automation. They will proactively work on our behalf, guided by our permission and divining our intent. Existing services such as <a href="https://developers.google.com/prediction/" target="_blank">Google's Prediction API</a>, which offers pattern-matching and trainable machine learning capabilities to developers, and <a href="https://ifttt.com/wtf" target="_blank">IFTTT</a>, which offers intuitive, user-friendly, and cloud-based rules engine expressed in simple "if this, then that" terms, are representative of the trend toward empowering more automated, if not quite yet artificial, intelligence for our digital alter-egos.</p>
<h3><a name="We_reach_the_tablet_tipping_point">We reach the tablet tipping point</a></h3>
<p><strong>Creative Director Mario van der Meulen, Shanghai </strong></p>
<p>Crystal-balling next year's trends is never far off from what we see now, but nothing happens overnight. One solution that could make its long promised impact in 2013: the dropping price point of tablets. This will start to bring a shift from tablets being mini-computers to their role as the widespread replacement of printed media, from payment receipts to newspapers to textbooks. Lower prices will prompt people to buy numerous tablets, each optimized for different purposes. Lower prices will also make tablets a game-changing device in emerging economies in Africa, South America, and Asia, and will bring new challenges to the interaction model worldwide.</p>
<p>There has been a documented reduction in the media industry's paper usage because of the adoption of tablets. These devices also use less energy compared to PCs, and could work well with renewable solutions, such as the solar energy grid. These factors, combined with less of a reliance on a physical transportation and distribution model, where combustion engines still rule, will also help push forward tablets as the timely, earth-friendly, and cost-saving alternative to paper.</p>
<h3><a name="USSD_is_the_future_of_financial_inclusion">USSD is the future of financial inclusion</a></h3>
<p><strong>Executive Strategy Director Ravi Chhatpar, Johannesburg</strong></p>
<p>Although the promise of low-cost smartphones has the potential to fundamentally revolutionize emerging markets, the quotidian reality for many people in Africa, India, China, Southeast Asia, and South America is the simple and functional feature phone.</p>
<p>For most consumers in these markets, the sophistication of mobile interaction is defined by the familiarity with which cumbersome Unstructured Supplementary Service Data, or USSD, codes (keypad commands, e.g. *141*12-digit-number#dial) are used for any service outside of voice and SMS (e.g., adding airtime). For mobile innovators, this is arguably the lowest of the lowest common denominators in technology, but it in fact is the most compelling.</p>
<p>Financial institutions are realizing that attempting to replicate a service borne out of unique and aged local conditions is a losing proposition. For several years, Kenya's M-Pesa has been touted as the seminal example of emerging-market innovation, but the reality is that it was a brilliant example of being at the right place at the right time, at that perfect intersection of hyper-connectivity (mobile) and non-connectivity (infrastructure) in a country that needed a remittance solution more than anything. It does not neatly translate into other scenarios; it is not a one-size-fits-all solution, and neither should it be.</p>
<p>Since M-Pesa's debut, entrepreneurs and institutions have tried to replicate it in many countries over the years and have consistently failed. Real financial services disruption that acknowledges the role of the informal sector, the importance of community, the need for alternative assessments of risk, and the blending of traditional financial product categories is what will define truly meaningful innovation. And all of these will still be delivered through that most simple, basest, crudest of mobile technologies—USSD. In 2013, an aspiring innovator will define success with this approach.</p>
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<h3><a name="The_experience_economy_comes_of_age">The experience economy comes of age</a></h3>
<p><strong>Interaction Designer Kalle Buschmann, Munich </strong></p>
<p>For a long time Apple has been the poster child for the product and business development of experience-driven technology—and its success. But in the last two to three years we have seen new players, such as Square and Dropbox, enter the market. As a result, established companies are being pressed to change their game. Specifically, the big ecosystem players: Google with Android, Microsoft with Windows 8 and Surface, and Amazon with the Kindle, have done their homework, redesigned their websites, applications, operating systems, services, and added self- developed hardware. They all have one common goal, no matter how different their businesses: to optimize and differentiate the customer experience. In 2012 many of these efforts saw the light of day, but it will be in 2013 that the recent developments will reach their climax as customers start to respond to the new product landscape.</p>
<p>One thing that these product ecosystems have in common is that they don't focus on the technology as a key differentiator anymore. Customer experience has become the only source of long-term competitive advantages, and today the main barrier to great experiences isn't the tech. It's business cases, company cultures, and the capabilities to deliver and orchestrate the intended experience through all touchpoints over time. Likely there will be more chief experience officers named in 2013. Such CXOs do exist: McCann-Erickson, the ad agency, appointed one in late 2012—with a graduate degree in interaction design.</p>
<h3><a name="Rip_mix_burn_gets_physical">Rip, mix, burn gets physical</a></h3>
<p><strong>Senior Strategist Annie Hsu, San Francisco </strong></p>
<p>The notion of taking existing content, remixing it, and giving it new life in an instant is one that's lived primarily in the digital world thus far, due to the relatively low cost and nearly instantaneous access to content and workable assets.</p>
<p>The notion of remixing is on the cusp of entering the realm of physical objects. One key driver is the precipitous decline in prices of 3-D printers. Six years ago, the cheapest machine was $30,000, and today you can find one for $550. A second driver is consumers' ever-increasing expectations of fast shipping, as currently delivered by Amazon Prime and eBay, priming us for the next generation of instant gratification.</p>
<p>The killer app is going to put the power of ultimate customization in consumers' hands in 2013, unleashing the new standard for creativity plus utility.</p>
<h3><a name="Virtual_manufacturing_starts_small">Virtual manufacturing starts small</a></h3>
<p><strong>Assistant Vice President of Strategy Patrick Kalaher, Boston </strong></p>
<p>While 3-D modeling and 3-D printing have been with us for a while now, this year we'll see the rise of virtual manufacturing. Services like Shapeways, Ponoko, Sculpteo and i.materialise, which operate as shared factories for hire, will become a common back end for small-scale (10-1,000) unit manufacturing. Think of this as analogous to the hosting of virtual servers in a distributed data center, except in this case, the virtual servers are CNC (Computer Numerically Controlled) manufacturing equipment and the distributed data centers are virtual factories, spread around the world. Amateur as well as professional designers and makers will essentially be able to print objects to specification any time, without having to buy printers and factory space.</p>
<h3><a name="The_dawn_of_robotic_handicraft_and_the_artisanal_handset_arrives">The dawn of robotic handicraft (and the artisanal handset) arrives</a></h3>
<p><strong>Creative Director Jonas Damon, New York </strong></p>
<p>As smartphones continue to become the connective tissue of our everyday lives, their build quality will finally begin to reflect this significant role. Smartphones are the conduit to the musical scores of our lives; the vessel of friends', families', and strangers' every moment caught in pixels; and the bearer of written words to just about everyone we know (and don't know). They are the holders of every significant artifact that identifies us as one out of 7 billion other humans. But until now, these devices have been largely made of plastic parts cheaply molded, painted, and snapped together.</p>
<p>Thanks to advancing manufacturing innovations and investments, we will see an unprecedented boost in handset build quality. Smartphones will approach and surpass the fine craft and quality traditionally reserved for Swiss watches and heirloom jewelry.</p>
<p>Original Device Manufacturers' (ODM, such as Foxconn) investments in robotic assembly lines are enabling handset housings to be carved out of single blocks of material: The HTC One and the Nokia Lumia series have pioneered unibody enclosures, setting the table stakes. Like watch cases, unibody construction leads to thinner, stronger, and stiffer devices. Robots will enable components to fit together so closely, every component in a pair will look and feel custom made for its partner. The iPhone 5's inlaid glass and ceramic panels are the first out of this gate. Glass-forming technology will allow handset screens to be less a cutout shard than a finely ground lens. The Nokia Lumia 920, with its rolled screen edges, will be the first of many artisanal handsets bearing this detail, and others.</p>
<h3><a name="Interaction_choreography_goes_shopping">Interaction choreography goes shopping</a></h3>
<p><strong>Frog Fellow Jared Ficklin, Austin</strong></p>
<p>Gesture will quickly become the new technology driving shopping experiences at the mall. The proliferation of high-dollar marketing experiences will quickly yield to many more gesture-based, brochureware kiosks—where the person-as-controller will find life beyond living room dancing games.</p>
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<h3><a name="The_art_of_innovation_gets_even_more_artful">The art of innovation gets even more artful</a></h3>
<p><strong>Executive Editor Reena Jana, New York</strong></p>
<p>In 2013, we'll see more of the world's engineers, scientists, and business people look to art—yes, to sculpture, architecture, fiction, film—for creative inspiration.</p>
<p>Of course, there's been a long history of well-rounded innovation dating back decades (IBM hiring sculptor Isamu Noguchi and designers Charles and Ray Eames in the 1950s) and centuries (the Italian Renaissance). More recently, a few wide-ranging examples of a growing trend include the <em>New York Times'</em> hiring of an artist-in-residence to experiment with compelling data visualization as a competitive advantage; Intel naming musician will.i.am as director of creative innovation, to share his deep awareness of popular culture; and robotics startup Willow Garage collaborating with a Pixar animator to develop more attractive machines.</p>
<p>Academically, Rhode Island School of Design President John Maeda—himself a media artist—has spoken before Congress on the importance of adding arts education to science, math, and engineering curricula in the United States to promote inventive thinking. And arts education does have its proof of success in the $1 billion valuation of Airbnb, founded by two RISD graduates.</p>
<p>Companies focused on traditionally "left-brain" tech fields, from health care equipment to enterprise software, will be wise to experiment with crossing over into right-brain territory. Doing so could enhance their methods of finding fresh ideas and then, more important, adding emotional appeal and details to potential products. In this way, consulting with artists could complement design beautifully: Imagine a world with not only more usable and relevant, but also more poetic and resonant, objects and experiences.</p>
<h3><a name="Sensors_social_networks_change_health_behavior_on_a_large_scale">Sensors, social networks change health behavior, on a large scale</a></h3>
<p><strong>Associate Creative Director Montana Cherney, San Francisco</strong></p>
<p>Why just prompt behavior change on an individual level, when we can do so much more? Behavior evolution—or behavior change at scale and over time—is the new frontier. Ubiquitous connectivity, real-time remote monitoring, and social networking are three of the most prevalent factors revolutionizing health care. We'll see more and more people connect to devices, share their data, and reach out to others. Doing so will allow them to enhance their care experiences by relating with others with similar symptoms, receiving social support for achieving goals, and "crowdsourcing" treatments and cures.</p>
<p>In addition to patients receiving more personalized guidance, individual health data that is collected will increasingly be used to provide more proactive care at the population level. Yes, many connected care solutions that collect individual data exist today, from Patients Like Me, a data-centric social networking site; Cure Together, a health-tracking site; and Asthmapolis, a system that allows patients to connect to a mobile app via a sensor-enabled inhaler. In 2013, expect more services such as these to emerge and grow. They synthesize information to make it more relevant to providers and patients alike, and therefore actionable; then these services broadcast their analyses to improve the quality of life for not just one, but for all.</p>
<h3><a name="Micronetworks_rise">Micro-networks rise</a></h3>
<p><strong>Principal Designer David Sherwin, San Francisco </strong></p>
<p>Micro-networks are intimate communication networks that people form around subjects of interest to them, whether as simple as their love of chocolate or as complicated as a shared passion for creating change in a local community. Most of these micro-networks are private, and rarely visible to the designer or trend-spotter.</p>
<p>These micro-networks have been fostered in local communities via face-to-face conversation or via email and phone, but just-in-time communication tools have allowed the content of these conversations to persist—and store what people are sharing over time. They encourage connection with people that had previously not been able to join those conversations.</p>
<p>Social platforms such as Quora and Facebook have exploited the budding micro-network trend, allowing knowledge to surface from these communities. Platforms such as Neighborland, Frog's Collective Action Toolkit, and Change.org allow micro-networks to gain momentum and grow around desired political and community change.</p>
<p>Identifying micro-networks and ethically researching how people participate in them will be an important part of how we design any product or service that's meant to collect and share knowledge in 2013. By combining ethnography with an awareness of what people are doing through their micro-networks, we can gain visibility into trends that are happening, but aren't always in public view. It can also point us to new and growing private communities that help illuminate for us emerging shifts in customer behavior.</p>Froghttp://www.fastcodesign.com/1671397http://www.fastcodesign.com/1671397/20-tech-trends-that-will-define-2013-selected-by-frog?partner=rss
http://www.fastcodesign.com/1671397/20-tech-trends-that-will-define-2013-selected-by-frog?partner=rss#commentsThu, 13 Dec 2012 12:45 +00002013frogInnovationtech trendsDesignInnovation Engine12 Tech Trends That Will Define 2012, Selected By Frog's Design Minds<p>According to the Mayan calendar, 2012 will spell the end of the world. But while the Internet is playing host to various survival strategies, we at frog are thinking of other things that will shape culture this year. We surveyed frogs from across the globe and across disciplines to share their favorite tech trends that'll crop up this year and what their impact would be on design, business, entertainment, and our daily routines. Without a doubt, this is shaping up to be a year of hyper-connected, highly personal, ultrasmart computing that, well, might just skip the computer altogether.</p>
<p>Here, our tech forecasters, drawing from their expertise in everything from strategy to engineering, make their predictions for 2012. Among them: moving beyond the computer interface toward voice and gesture recognition, building more intimacy into social networks, and the continued exploration of biomimicry.</p>
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<h2><a name="Connected_Cities">Connected Cities</a></h2>
<p><strong>Chief Creative Officer Mark Rolston</strong></p>
<p>In major cities today, cameras, sensors, and networks provide literal and statistical pictures of where people are and what they are doing at any given moment. Homes and buildings are represented not just by white and yellow page entries but by a growing mountain of data in online maps, social networks, merchant reviews, location services, Wikipedia, private websites, and more. People can learn about and even experience a place before ever setting foot in it. Our Austin studio recently hired a creative director from Brooklyn who used the fly-through experience in Google maps to get a feel for a neighborhood where he was home shopping. As this mountain of data becomes more accessible, we will find ourselves more connected with information, with each other, and with the city that surrounds us.</p>
<h2><a name="Taking_Computers_Out_of_Computing">Taking Computers Out of Computing</a></h2>
<p><strong>Senior Principal Design Technologist Jared Ficklin, Executive Technology Director Robert Tuttle, and Assistant Vice President Marketing Adam Richardson</strong></p>
<aside class="pullquote"><q>Voice recognition technology has finally hit its tipping point.</q></aside>
<p>Interactions with technology are becoming conversational: We literally talk to them and they to us. Voice recognition is a key enabler of this. Apple's Siri is the headliner, of course, but Ford has been employing Microsoft Sync—which also uses voice control extensively—in its cars for a few years. It's being smart about offering it not just in its high–end models or Lincoln premium brand but in less expensive cars that appeal to younger buyers. It's a great way to get a new generation engaged with the Ford brand.</p>
<p>Voice recognition technology has finally hit its tipping point of capability, and the stage is being set for a generation of users to start assuming voice control, just as touch control is now assumed for any screen. But the spoken word is only a fragment of any conversation. Computer vision—especially depth-sensing cameras—will be able to pick up nonverbal cues such as gesturing or body language that complete human communication. When voice and gesture comprehension are paired, humans will be able to address technology naturally, without command jargon. The tactical steps being taken in 2012 are to "design the human" as the primary interface device in support of that.</p>
<h2><a name="The_Reductive_Social_Network_Technology_Finally_Gets_Personal">The Reductive Social Network: Technology Finally Gets Personal</a></h2>
<p><strong>Vice President of Business Development Nathan Weyer</strong></p>
<p>Today's technologies, products, and services do not adequately serve the human need for intimacy and personal connections. Although Facebook might have initially felt personal, it's become one of the many social networks swamping us with digital data that we can't possibly process. Our Internet personalities have evolved into amplified personas that aren't truly us. The current fervor around cloud computing only exacerbates the problem: Now, my 10,000 digital photos are in the ether, but am I any more emotionally connected with them and sharing them with my three closest friends in a meaningful way? This is about culling from the terabytes and sharing with the single digits. In 2012, product companies will deliver new products that begin narrowing the social circle and capturing intimacy and authenticity.</p>
<h2><a name="Gadget_Convergence_Will_Lead_to_Specialization">Gadget Convergence Will Lead to Specialization</a></h2>
<p><strong>Creative Director Michael DiTullo</strong></p>
<p>For the past decade we have been seeing a convergence of multiple pieces of hardware into fewer generalist devices. The smartphone is the almost perfect example of the convergent digital device as Swiss Army knife. It has absorbed much of the features of portable devices, like music and video consumption, digital photo and video capturing, email and calendar, and simple things like time keeping. I read countless blog posts proclaiming that dedicated devices, like the camera and the watch, will rapidly shrivel and die. Instead, I think new technologies will provide opportunities for them to get better. When users purchase a dedicated device, they are gravitating towards products with higher quality and better design to elevate their experience. It turns out that the convergent device is killing the commodity digital product while forcing everything else to improve. This is presenting companies and brands with an opportunity to do what designers love: Make things better!</p>
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<h2><a name="Rein_in_the_Clouds">Rein in the Clouds!</a></h2>
<p><strong>Senior Vice President, Engineering Mark VandenBrink and Executive Strategy Director Abby Godee</strong></p>
<p>We're rapidly moving into a technology space where mobility is becoming less about a set of devices and more about the pervasive mist of data that we all generate with every interaction on the Internet. Managing, securing, and understanding this data will play a huge part in technology over the next few years. Moreover, making that data comprehensible to the consumer is key. The question has never really been, <em>Is this possible?</em> but rather, <em>When will we have an ecosystem of compelling and useful devices and services that will integrate seamlessly into people's lives?</em> We think that time is finally arriving in 2012.</p>
<h2><a name="ReputationEnhanced_Lending_and_Trading_Goes_Mainstream_">Reputation-Enhanced Lending and Trading Goes Mainstream </a></h2>
<p><strong>Assistant Vice President, Strategy Tim Morey</strong></p>
<p>The recession, coupled with the rise of the so-called sharing economy, has the early-adopter community abuzz with notions about the end of consumption. Companies like Airbnb and Zimride, which allow people to open their homes or cars to sharing or loaning for a fee, are cited as examples of new ways of using and exchanging goods and services. But the really interesting trend here is that new forms of trust are being enabled by social networking technology. We all joined Facebook and LinkedIn to stay in touch with colleagues and friends, but the upshot of mass adoption is that we can check up on virtually everyone we come across. Individuals who have never met or interacted are using social networks to validate one another. If I'm just selling something to you on Craigslist, it doesn't really matter to me whether you're a good or bad person: I take the cash, you take goods, and that's it. But if I'm renting something to you, trust becomes critical. I want to know that you are not a crook, a thief, or just a generally unpleasant person.</p>
<aside class="pullquote"><q>New forms of trust are being enabled by social networking.</q></aside>
<p>By linking person-to-person transactions to social networks, we are reducing the need for cash deposits and other financial remedies to the bad-egg problem. While logging in to third-party websites using your Facebook identity is now commonplace, we are beginning to see person-to-person exchanges making use of social networks to broker trust. For example, before you stay at someone's spare bedroom via Airbnb, you have to sign in with your profile. I recently rented someone's house in Toronto for a few days, and between our respective social networks, we found enough friends, relatives, and colleagues in common for him to lend me the property with confidence. In 2012, this reputation-enhanced lending and trading will become mainstream. We will lease, barter, and trade with relative strangers, banking on their reputations and connections.</p>
<h2><a name="LowEnd_Mobile_Innovation">Low-End Mobile Innovation</a></h2>
<p><strong>Strategy Director Ravi Chhatpar</strong></p>
<p>Smartphones will make significant inroads into an entirely new segment: the lower end of the mass market and the "base of the pyramid." Huawei's sub-$100 Android smartphone has already had significant success in Kenya, and major manufacturers are quickly following suit across Africa, India, Southeast Asia, and South America. These cellphones will not be notable for hardware innovations, as they're stripped-down versions of their more expensive and feature-packed brethren. However, they'll be notable for the fact that an eager population will be discovering the world of mobile technology and apps for the first time. This population is filled with experimenters, tinkerers, and developers who will unleash a new world of apps that address their own needs and pain points—those that have gone ignored by the companies catering to the top end of the market.</p>
<figure class="inline-large inline"><img src="//a.fastcompany.net/multisite_files/codesign/imagecache/inline-large/post-inline/inline-hand-gestures_0.jpg" alt=""/></figure>
<h2><a name="Interaction_Becomes_Gestural">Interaction Becomes Gestural</a></h2>
<p><strong>Senior Principal Design Technologist Jared Ficklin</strong></p>
<p>User interaction with technology is going above the glass. You no longer need an explicit tool or even direct manipulation to drive a user interface. With the ability of technology, like Microsoft Kinect, to see users' movements in space, gestures are being added to traditional methods in new layers of interaction. Designing with this in mind requires new thinking about dexterity, ergonomics, and whether someone might feel silly or offensive with certain gestures. We are so involved in this space right now that we've had to move our design technologists' desks to create enough room for all the hand-waving movements.</p>
<h2><a name="Flourishing_Commerce_in_the_PostPC_Era">Flourishing Commerce in the Post-PC Era</a></h2>
<p><strong>Assistant Vice President of Financial Services, Innovation Strategy Group Toshi Mogi</strong></p>
<p>The post-PC channels for commerce have come of age, and consumers will continue to migrate over to mobile, tablet, smart TVs, and game console platforms to conduct their business. Financial-services firms would be wise to ready themselves for this dramatic change in customer behavior and expectations. We will likely see firms convert their successful web experience to a more streamlined mobile and tablet capability. But as consumers' experiences with these rapidly evolving post-PC platforms mature, they will expect much more. The post-PC platform affords mobility, portability, payment capabilities, video and collaboration, location awareness, natural language processing, gestures, and so on. Clever firms will wield this fresh and evolving palette to craft engaging experiences in the real and virtual worlds. The aim will be to drive customer delight, loyalty, and engagement.</p>
<h2><a name="Remote_Collaboration">Remote Collaboration</a></h2>
<p><strong>Executive Creative Director Holger Hampf</strong></p>
<p>If you do business between multiple locations via phone and video, you may have experienced your fair share of frustrations: dropped calls, poor reception, and interrupted video streams are standard. Given the demand for more connectivity between both people and places, it feels like technology is far behind in addressing the need to work efficiently and with the same "directness" of talking to a person in the same room. We are so far away from a high-def experience that we may want to reconsider sending a smoke signal. Make no mistake, technology is moving fast, as shown by the popularity of Skyping with friends and family across continents. Unfortunately, the truth is that most of our conversations across distances are far from perfect and no fun at all. We need creative collaboration between design and technology to rethink these experiences so that they are more fulfilling and "direct" activities in our lives.</p>
<figure class="inline-large inline"><img src="//h.fastcompany.net/multisite_files/codesign/imagecache/inline-large/post-inline/inline-biomimicry-birds_0.jpg" alt=""/></figure>
<h2><a name="Biomimicry">Biomimicry</a></h2>
<p><strong>Consulting Editor Reena Jana</strong></p>
<p>We'll see increasing numbers of scientists, technologists, architects, corporations, and even governments looking to biomimicry—designing objects and systems based on or inspired by patterns in nature—as an efficient innovation strategy. Why? Often, nature can provide examples of energy-saving, environmentally friendly solutions to a variety of technological challenges. These solutions have also been "tested" via billions of years of informal R&amp;D—by animals, plants, insects, and other participants in the natural world who have come up with ways of harvesting water from fog, for example, or possess sleek forms that are more aerodynamic than traditional man-made ones. While biomimicry has been an emerging field for some time, in 2012 influential thinkers will begin to apply biomimetic principles on a larger scale, including the planning of new cities and the updating of urban infrastructures. In addition, since more case studies are now available, experts will also begin exploring the pitfalls of biomimicry and share best practices.</p>
<h2><a name="Reshape_Humans_Are_Analogue">Reshape: Humans Are Analogue</a></h2>
<p><strong>Frog Founder Hartmut Esslinger</strong></p>
<p>The way of design is only achievable via creative model-making and prototyping by the designer. Tools, both real and virtual, connect our mind with the real world. However, tools also define how we shape things: Tools' limitations enhance our deep involvement with them and the materials, and honing our skills ultimately leads to mastership. The curse of "easy" digital tools is to become complacent after relative early "successes." This can lead to mediocrity and a loss of creative excellence. Like the new "polystyrene slates" of many new electronic products, where excellence is defined by how well the corners are shaped (a re-run of 1950s boxy design), our modern-day digital design software is the cause for zillions of repetitive and bland products. Charlie Chaplin's classic film of mechanized dehumanization, <em>Modern Times</em>, is a déjà vu of our current state.</p>
[The above is adapted from frog's <a href="http://designmind.frogdesign.com/" target="_blank">Design Mind</a>; Images: <a href="http://www.shutterstock.com/pic-90662785/stock-photo-new-year-on-yellow-panel-in-the-desert-landscape.html?src=7d1f707e50598033ff28b5f8e2e1f598-15-1" target="_blank">Marino Bocelli</a>, <a href="http://www.shutterstock.com/cat.mhtml?lang=en&amp;search_source=search_form&amp;version=llv1&amp;anyorall=all&amp;safesearch=1&amp;searchterm=flock+birds&amp;photos=on&amp;search_group=&amp;horizontal=on&amp;orient=&amp;search_cat=&amp;searchtermx=&amp;photographer_name=&amp;people_gender=&amp;people_age=&amp;people_ethnicity=&amp;people_number=&amp;commercial_ok=&amp;color=&amp;show_color_wheel=1&amp;secondary_submit=Search#id=88385905" target="_blank">Pictureguy</a>, <a href="http://www.shutterstock.com/cat.mhtml?lang=en&amp;search_source=search_form&amp;version=llv1&amp;anyorall=all&amp;safesearch=1&amp;searchterm=future+city&amp;photos=on&amp;search_group=&amp;horizontal=on&amp;orient=&amp;search_cat=&amp;searchtermx=&amp;photographer_name=&amp;people_gender=&amp;people_age=&amp;people_ethnicity=&amp;people_number=&amp;commercial_ok=&amp;color=&amp;show_color_wheel=1&amp;secondary_submit=Search#id=55195138" target="_blank">Fedor Selivanov</a>, <a href="http://www.shutterstock.com/cat.mhtml?lang=en&amp;search_source=search_form&amp;version=llv1&amp;anyorall=all&amp;safesearch=1&amp;searchterm=gesture+hands+&amp;search_group=&amp;orient=&amp;search_cat=&amp;searchtermx=&amp;photographer_name=&amp;people_gender=&amp;people_age=&amp;people_ethnicity=&amp;people_number=&amp;commercial_ok=&amp;color=&amp;show_color_wheel=1#id=84703114" target="_blank">Ruslav Semichev</a>, and <a href="http://www.shutterstock.com/pic-63742021/stock-photo-from-above-it-is-not-so-terrible-the-stormy-clouds-shined-from-above-with-the-sun-view-from.html" target="_blank">Mikhail hoboton Popov</a> via Shutterstock]Froghttp://www.fastcodesign.com/1668912http://www.fastcodesign.com/1668912/12-tech-trends-that-will-define-2012-selected-by-frogs-design-minds?partner=rss
http://www.fastcodesign.com/1668912/12-tech-trends-that-will-define-2012-selected-by-frogs-design-minds?partner=rss#commentsFri, 27 Jan 2012 21:47 +00002012Biomimicryexpert expertsFrog Designmobile technologytech trendsTechnologyUI designDesign