Early Forecast: Fewer Hurricanes Likely In `86

HOUSTON — A leading hurricane researcher`s preliminary prediction calls for fewer hurricanes than average this season.

William M. Gray`s forecast calls for three or four Atlantic-Caribbean hurricanes to form this season, which begins June 1. An average season has six hurricanes.

Gray cautioned, however, that not all the factors are in to make a valid prediction.

The signal factors are:

The direction and speed of upper-level winds, which change direction every two years. Hurricanes form less frequently when these winds are from the east, which is what the forecast indicates this season.

``El Nino,`` an unusual warming of the Pacific Ocean along the equator, which creates a strong jet stream over the tropics. The presence of El Nino inhibits hurricanes. Gray says there is a ``better than 50 percent chance`` El Nino will form.

Abnormal sea level air pressures during April and May. When pressures are down, storm activity increases.

By far the most influential factor seems to be the El Nino phenomenon. And when El Nino is paired with the upper level east winds -- a combination that has occurred only three times in the past 26 years -- there are only three or four hurricanes and four or five named storms during the season.

``Even though it looks like (the season) will be below average, there could be one (hurricane, and if it`s) over someone`s house they won`t think it`s a below-average season,`` Gray said.

Gray, a professor at Colorado State University, predicts the number of storms that will form -- not whether they will hit land.

Last year, the professor forecast 10 named tropical storms, seven of them hurricanes for 1985.