GBP/USD – Pound Higher, Markets Eye UK Manufacturing PMI

GBP/USD has posted slight gains in Monday trade. In the North American session, the pair is trading at 1.3181, up 0.34% on the day. On the release front, British Net Lending to Individuals climbed to GBP 5.6 billion in June, above the estimate of GBP 4.9 billion. This was the highest reading since March 2016. In the US, Pending Home Sales posted a gain of 1.6% in June, beating the forecast of 0.9%. On Tuesday, the UK releases Manufacturing PMI, and the US publishes Personal Spending and the ISM Manufacturing PMI.

US Advance GDP impressed in the second quarter with a strong gain of 2.6%, beating the estimate of 2.5%. The economy was boosted by strong consumer spending and business investment, as fears of a second straight quarter of weak growth proved unfounded. Still, inflation remains weak, and wage growth fell in Q2 despite a robust labor market and unemployment at just 4.4%. Investors are skeptical that the Fed will press the rate trigger in December due to low inflation. The odds of a December increase are at 42%, compared to 50% a month ago, according to the CME Group.

The US dollar has posted broad losses in response to climbing political risk in the US, and the pound has taken full advantage. GBP/USD has touched the 1.32 line on Monday, for the first time since September 2016. There was more bad news for the White House on Friday, as President Trump’s struggling healthcare bill gasped its final breath as the bill was defeated in the Senate after three Republican lawmakers joined the Democrats and voted against the bill. This is another setback for President Trump, who has been unable to get Congress to pass any significant legislation, despite the Republicans controlling both the House and the Senate. Trump will now be able to focus on other issues such as tax reform, but investors are skeptical as to whether the President will have the support he needs in Congress to pass major legislation.

GBP/USD Fundamentals

Monday (July 31)

4:30 British Net Lending to Individuals. Estimate 4.9B. Actual 5.6B

4:30 British M4 Money Supply. Estimate 0.2%. Actual -0.2%

4:30 British Mortgage Approvals. Estimate 65K. Actual 65K

9:45 US Chicago PMI. Estimate 60.8. Actual 58.9

10:00 US Pending Home Sales. Estimate 0.9%. Actual 1.5%

Tuesday (August 1)

4:30 British Manufacturing PMI. Estimate 54.4

8:30 US Personal Spending. Estimate 0.1%

10:00 US ISM Manufacturing PMI. Estimate 56.4

*All release times are EDT

*Key events are in bold

GBP/USD for Monday, July 31, 2017

GBP/USD July 31 at 11:50 EDT

Open: 1.3137 High: 1.3200 Low: 1.3097 Close: 1.3189

GBP/USD Technical

S1

S2

S1

R1

R2

R3

1.2946

1.3058

1.3121

1.3238

1.3347

1.3480

GBP/USD edged lower in the Asian and European sessions. The pair has posted considerable gains in North American trade

1.3121 is providing support

1.3238 is the next resistance line

Further levels in both directions:

Below: 1.3121, 1.3058, 1.2946 and 1.2865

Above: 1.3238, 1.3347 and 1.3480

Current range: 1.3121 to 1.3238

OANDA’s Open Positions Ratio

In the Monday session, GBP/USD ratio is showing long positions with a majority (58%). This is indicative of trader bias towards GBP/USD continuing to post gains.

This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

Kenny Fisher joined OANDA in 2012 as a Currency Analyst. Kenny writes a daily column about current economic and political developments affecting the major currency pairs, with a focus on fundamental analysis. Kenny began his career in forex at Bendix Foreign Exchange in Toronto, where he worked as a Corporate Account Manager for over seven years.

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