CNU Poll: Virginia voters oppose Medicaid expansion

April 24, 2014|By Dave Ress, dress@dailypress.com

NEWPORT NEWS— Virginians are changing their minds about using federal Medicaid funds to expand health insurance coverage for the poor, with a majority now opposing the notion, according to a Christopher Newport University poll released Thursday.

But they also want legislators on either side of the issue to stop insisting they won't budge. Virginians want a compromise to ensure the General Assembly enacts a budget.

If they don't, voters told he student pollsters at CNU's Wason Center for Public Policy, all sides will get the blame.

The poll is the first to sound out Virginians about their concerns over whether the current impasse over the state budget and Medicaid will shut down the government, and what they think should happen if the General Assembly can't pass a budget by July 1.

The poll reported a strong mandate for Gov. Terry McAuliffe to step in with executive orders to keep state government running, the course then-Gov. Tim Kaine was planning when the state legislature came closest to failing to pass a budget on time.

With 53 percent of Virginians now saying they don't think Virginia should take federal Medicaid funds to extend health insurance coverage, it looks as if Republican arguments against the idea have swayed Virginians, said Wason Center director Quentin Kidd.

In February, when CNU students asked about expanding Medicaid, 56 percent said they supported the idea. On the other hand, that February support dropped to 41 percent when the pollsters asked how they felt about expansion if Washington did not keep its promises to fund the effort – a key part of the Republicans' argument that expansion could leave Virginians on the hook. The question in the latest poll did not refer to Medicaid expansion, as the February poll did, and the latest poll summarized arguments of both Democrats and Republicans before asking where voters stood.

"Democrats are losing the debate on expanding Medicaid in Virginia," Kidd said. "Voters seem to be moved by Republican skepticism. Significantly, even in the Democratic-friendly territory of Northern Virginia, support leads opposition by only 2 percent."

Matthew Moran, spokesman for Speaker of the House William Howell, R-Stafford County, said "The results of this poll speak for themselves. Virginia voters oppose Obamacare's Medicaid expansion and they want to see a compromise that avoids a government shutdown."

That means, he added, adopting the House Republican stand that the General Assembly should pass a budget that does not expand coverage.

"Virginians made it clear they overwhelmingly support the House and Senate working together to find a compromise on closing the coverage gap, which the Governor has urged leaders of both parties to do," said McAuliffe spokeswman Rachel Thomas.

"Compromise means coming to the table with substantive offers on how to find common ground—a bipartisan coalition in the Senate is doing just that; it's time for House Republicans to join them," she said.

The poll shows that partisan divide among voters is stark – thought not quite as stark as within the General Assembly. Some 19 percent of Democrats break with the unanimous support of state Senate Democrats for what they say is an alternative to Medicaid expansion.

On the other hand 11 percent of Republicans favor expanding coverage, while House of Delegates Republicans stand almost unanimous in opposition. Though the percentage is higher than that represented by the three GOP senators and one member of the House who support expansion, it does not show the vocal support of traditional Republican backers in chambers of commerce and hospital boards for expansion is swaying many in the GOP rank and file.

The poll found 71 percent of Virginia voters want Democratic and Republican legislators to compromise.

While 61 percent are not worried that the standoff will lead to a state government shutdown, if it does happen 65 percent of voters will blame both sides. And though the governor doesn't get a vote in the General Assembly, his strong advocacy for expansion means more than three quarters think he'd share at least some of the blame.

Still, nearly three quarters of Virginia votes think McAuliffe should step in with executive orders to keep key government functions running, the poll found.

The poll is based on 806 interviews with registered voters and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points, at the 95 percent level of confidence, which means that the same poll, conducted the same way, should come up with results within that margin 95 times out of 100.