National legislation requires that at least 50% of the electorate must turn out for the referendum to be automatically validated (if a ‘Yes ‘majority is obtained with less than that threshold, then both houses of the Polish parliament will have to vote in favour of EU entry for it to become a reality).

However, two recent surveys suggest that the 50% limit will be exceeded.

One poll, by the OBOP agency, finds that 57% of registered voters are planning to mark their ballot papers. Of those, 74% are inclined to vote ‘Yes’, 16% ‘No’, with 10% still undecided.

The poll by the BPH PBK institute predicts an even more comfortable win for the ‘Yes’ side. Indicating that turnout will be around 65%, it foresees an 80% ‘Yes’ vote.

But its survey also finds Poles expecting the EU to make their wallets lighter.

Some 75% of respondents said they expected prices to rise after accession, with only 2% expecting price decreases.

Still, a significant number of Poles appear to be optimistic that membership will be positive for their jobs – 45% said they think unemployment will fall, compared to 42% who think it will increase.

At the moment, three million Poles are jobless.

Political heavyweights from both sides of the Atlantic have appealed for a ‘Yes’ vote over the past week. During his 15-hour spell in Poland, George W. Bush laid emphasis on the perceived commercial benefits of joining. “EU membership will provide the United States and Poland with new trade and investment opportunities,” the American president said.

In a short visit to Warsaw last Thursday (29 May), British premier Tony Blair warned that his own country’s history of lukewarm links with the EU demonstrated it was a mistake to keep a distance from the Union.

“Breaking ties with Europe is like self-mutilation,” he said.

“Great nations, such as ours, do not avoid responsibility but adopt the leading role.”

Probably, though, the most emphatic message came from Sweden’s Göran Persson, who said that “Poland needs the EU and the EU needs Poland”.

Persson’s message followed a comment by Belgian premier Guy Verhofstadt that EU enlargement without Poland, the largest of the ten states due to join next year, would be unthinkable.

In the Czech Republic (polling days: 13-14 June), Prague-based news agency CTK has reported that 90% of the €6.4 million which the government earmarked for its referendum campaign has already been spent.

Most of it has been used to send extracts from the accession treaty to every household, as well as having been spent on information leaflets, media advertising and letters to pensioners.

While few expect that the Czech referendum will fail to be carried, there has been a slight setback for the pro-EU side through the announcement, by Ivan Langer, the vice-speaker in the lower house of parliament, that he intends to cast a ‘No’ vote.

Meanwhile, Latvian Prime Minister Einars Repse said there is no more pressing matter for the Baltic state than securing a ‘Yes’ vote in its 20 September referendum.

“It is important to emphasize that, once we become members of the European Union, we will delegate a part of our sovereignty to Europe to a certain extent.

“But Latvia’s influence in Europe will expand at the same time,” he commented.

“The victor is the one who finds those who think alike, the one who can convince others that he is right.

“The ones who become isolated, however, are the losers, ” warned Repse.