Mike is a retired stock broker, and now published author of Gold Rush!. In addition, he is a freelance writer specializing in real estate, personal finance and home decor now writing from San Miguel, Mexico.

I was a stockbroker from 1969 to 1995. In all those years we were interested in whether the FED reported net-free or net-borrowed reserves. For the period 1969 to 1982, the DJIA traded under 1000 and broke above finally in 1982-4:

Notice, after the market broke out, net-borrowed reserves were really never an issue again until 2008! Hat Tip to the Big Picture.

Tis latest chart shows Net-borrowed reserves massively negative, unlike anything in the 1970s and I’m wondering if it isn’t understated because of the change in the way the figures are calculated.

By definition, nonborrowed reserves are equal to total reserves minus borrowed reserves. Borrowed reserves are equal to credit extended through the Federal Reserve’s regular discount window programs as well as credit extended through the TAF.

It is worth noting that the Federal Reserve Bank of St.Louis changed it’s way of calculating net-free or borrowed reserves, again, at the end of 2007.

In December 2007, Econbrowser wrote “…the Federal Reserve injected $27.75 billion dollars in reserves in the form of traditional open market operations, a number that exceeds last week’s average daily borrowing by two orders of magnitude.” Now the FED is upping the ante:

The Fed said it will conduct three auctions in June; each will offer $75 billion in short-term cash loans. It would mark the latest round in a program that the Fed launched in December to help banks overcome credit problems so they will keep lending to customers.

IMO, we may be looking at a market that is much like those years from 1969 to 1982. It doesn’t mean you can’t make money in that kind of market. It just means it is deceptive and treacherous.

The NY Times names Portland, Oregon as one of the 31 places to visit this summer:

Michael Rubenstein for The New York Times

A chef prepares a smoked duck breast Paleyâ€™s Place in Portland.

As far as foodie havens go, Portland has been better known for its vegan cafes and eco-hippie cooperatives than for restaurants with gastronomic ambitions. But an emerging locavore movement has changed that. Drawn by the cityâ€™s low rents and artsy vibe, young chefs are breaking the culinary mold and tapping into the Northwestern bounty of local fisheries, small meat purveyors and artisanal farms. Sample the heat at places like Clyde Common (Southwest 10th and Stark; 503-228-3333; www.clydecommon.com), which serves novel dishes like crispy pork belly with blood orange marmalade.

In March I posted about Ex-Pats In Mexico. No one knows how many citizens of the U.S. have moved to Mexico, “howerver, combining host-country with US census information, it is clear that citizens over 50 are a growing number in the exodus.”

Many of the factors credited with the accelerated exodus of US citizens to Mexico and the Panama include rising taxes, reduced reliability on pensions, increased medical costs, and the desire for a more active lifestyle at a lower cost.

Recently, according to a report written by Tom Kelly in The Concrete Producer Online, housing sales in Mexico as in the United States are down, but Mexican developers are making it very attractive and easy to buy condos in tourist areas. For example,

a Puerto Vallarta-based marketing company operated by Mexico City native Benjamin Beja offers affordable, well-located, attractive condominiums starting at $145,000 along with elegant waterfront residences with price tags well over $1 million on the Bay of Banderas, one of Mexico’s most popular tourist destinations.

The downpayment programs at two developments are extremely flexible, especially for investors. While the minimum downpayment is 20 percent, MexicoAlive will accept $9,000 at signing and then the difference in monthly payments, interest free, until the buildings open. For example, if a buyer decides on a $140,000 unit, the 20- percent downpayment would equal $28,000. After the $9,000 at signing, the buyer would make payments of about $1,000 for 17 months.

Then just a mortgage of 112,000 and it’s all yours.

I’m one of those who could pack up and move, especially after the cold and wet spring we’ve experienced in Portland, Oregon.

SUSAN SARANDON, who appeared in three films last year and won kudos for her TV movie “Bernard and Doris,” is still not a contented soul. She says if John McCain gets elected, she will move to Italy or Canada. She adds, “It’s a critical time, but I have faith in the American people.”

Susan, your faith is misplaced. If either McCain or Obama wins, will you take me with you?

The email starts “Dear Friend”: The National Republican Congressional Committee is concerned about the rising price of gasoline and urges you to sign a petition to tell Congress to:

Suspend the Federal 18.4-cents-per-gallon gasoline tax for the high-demand summer months. I think this is the wrong solution. New York suspends its sale tax once a year because it wants consumers to realize the savings and spend more money. Is that what the NRCC wants, to INCREASE demand and cause prices to go higher yet?

Suspend all earmarks for one year and use the money to fund highways, bridges and other important infrastructure around the country. I don’t know about this. Earmarks are a small part of the budget and many projects are infrastructure related.

Increase American oil production, and cut our reliance on foreign imports from unstable nations. Finally, something I can agree with. Really, why are we funding our enemies? Now, how about also cutting tariffs on Brazilian bio-fuels.

Allow U.S. refineries to expand and create more energy. Nobody wants a refinery in their backyard, but we haven’t built a new refinery in the U.S. for at least 30 years. If we don’t build more, we will be importing it and sending the money out of the country.

In the last 90 or so days, the Reno, Nevada area has seen a great number of earthquakes. There has been speculation about the cause, but nothing official. Here’s a chart of the activity:

Ken Smith, seismologist at the University of Nevada Reno, responded to a question from Robert Somerville, Geophysicist in Canadian oil industry in Calgary Alberta.

Bob’s question: “I was wondering if the current swarm just north west of Reno is also magmatic in nature, as was the swarm at Slide Mountain ???

Ken answered:

We’ve seen no evidence to suggest that this is volcanically related.
It’s shallow in nature, the Slide Mtn. volcanic activity was in
the lower crust, and we’d expect to see volcanics migrating
from deeper in the crust. We’d not expect volcanics at such
shallow depths. This does not rule out a deeper deformation
event associated with aseismic volcanic movement, at possibly
lower crustal depths. The b-value is more consistent with
tectonic earthquakes and there is no observations of low frequency
earthquakes. Everything suggests a shallow tectonic sequence, so
far.

It’s conceivable that 10 year yields in the US will hit well over 5% plus over the next 12-18 months,

While agreeing that yields look like they are going to move higher, you have to be puzzled by the market’s action today. U.S. 10-Year Treasury now at 4.10 up 0.10, supposedly because of inflation fears, but Oil is down $3.50, Gold is down $21.70, the USD is up and the CRB is down.

trading

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