Archive for March, 2012

Well, it is still March, so while surprising given our recent temps in the 70s-80, we have a little light snow coming for Friday night. It will probably start for an hour or two as light rain (starting ‘tween 8-10pm), but by Midnight, should have converted over to snow, and fall lightly until mid-Saturday morning. I’d say a half inch north of the Thruway, around an inch near the Thruway, and 2″ Waterville south. Lows tonight should bottom out near 28F, and after the snow ends mid morning Saturday, very slow clearing is expected in the afternoon, with highs only near 44F. Already by Sunday, clouds will return, and light rain is forecast from late morning until evening, with highs in the upper 40s. Monday should be partly sunny, highs near the average of 50F.

No April Fools joke, a small storm will run a close call to our south Friday night, but close enough that flurries could get as far north as Waterville with it’s passage. In addition, there is a chance for light snow in a week as well! So clearly, Mother Nature is quite confused this past Winter and now Spring! Tonight, just clouds…maybe some spotty drizzle, lows near 28F. Friday is a tough call, because I feel clouds from today will still be departing before that small storm increase the clouds later in the day, so is there even time between them for skies to get even partly sunny? I’m not so sure. I’ll say partly sunny, but keep expectations low. Highs tomorrow should be between 40-45. Saturday, gradually clearing skies…and the speed of which determines if we hit upper 40s or if we touch 50F. Sunday, yet another (weak) storm likely brings us occasional light rain, but temps should be able to reach the lower 50s.

A couple weak storms are moving through, having dragged in some noticeably milder air today, but behind them, colder air tomorrow and Friday. A few more light rainshowers are to be expected tonight, perhaps until 7 or 8am Thursday morning. Thursday continues to look like a transitional day, where it may take all day to completely clear up, after a gray start. Lows tonight in the upper 30s, highs tomorrow in the middle 40s. Another storm looks like it will make a close pass to our south Friday night, and could be close enough for some flurries for Otsego County, but I’ll only call for increasing clouds north of there for Friday PM, then decreasing clouds Saturday morning and afternoon. Highs Friday? Lower 40s. Saturday? Upper 40s to 50, depending on how quickly skies clear. Sunday is another mild one, highs mid 50s, but some rain could arrive in the afternoon or evening. The trend is for mild weather Sunday through Tuesday…

As for March, we are still on pace (less than 4 days to go) for the warmest on record, and daylight is nearly at 12.5 hours, and climbing. Seasonal snowfall is still stuck at 33 inches, well below the 60+ year record of 45.6 inches. And that concludes my meteorological housekeeping for today!

No, I’m not referring to the Jazz artist. The weather pattern. When you see muddy waters, you cannot see far into the water (depth) because of the heavy brown color. Ditto with weather. When there are many competing “disturbances” in the flow, it becomes difficult to time them all, determine how they will interact, strengthen, weaken, and any error in your judgment multiplies over time. That’s the issue for me, this week. First things firt, a high pressure area out of Canada will leave us tonight, allowing skies to cloud up and temps to rise after Midnight. A storm in the western Lakes States will bring some light rain Wednesday, from just before sunrise on and off until overnight into early Thursday…the risk for light rain exists. Temps should break 50F, but not by much. Thursday is a transitional day, with colder air coming in to offset the breaks of developing sunshine. A storm that looked like it will get here Saturday, NOW appears as if it not only gets here Friday evening, but may now move too far south to do more than add clouds to our skies at night into Saturday morning. However, computer models now indicate that another storm will form right behind it, and bring us light rain on Sunday! Regardless of the timing of all of this, warmer weather is coming, early next week.

Spring being what it is, we are in a transitional time in general. Days getting long, but weather still coming out of Canada, puts us in transitional times this week. Today turned out exactly as expected, sunny but brisk, and those winds will stay brisk this evening, but will calm down overnight. Skies will be totally clear, and will remain so through the daylight portion of tomorrow. Lows tonight? How about mid teens! Highs Tuesday? maybe 45. Maybe. Not as cold tomorrow night, as temps will fall off quickly early on into the 20s, but then clouds out west filling our skies will cause temps to climb overnight! Wednesday, damp with occasional light rain, highs just above 50F. Thursday looks like a transitional day behind Wednesday’s storm, but Friday looks very nice, as a bubble of high pressure builds in. But Tonight/Tuesday’s high pressure is right out of Canada, still a cold source region for our weather, so bundle up tonight!

Colder weather is moving back in. First because of clouds and rain from a storm moving through this weekend. Then behind that, a cold front out of Canada is going to rip through early Monday, and bring a real chill back to the air. That will last through Tuesday. Don’t expect these kind of warm readings any further. As for skies, clouds will predominate tonight through early Monday now, and raindrops will arrive later Saturday afternoon, on and off through the night and Sunday morning. Might rain kinda heavy Saturday night. Lows tonight should fall towards 40F, highs Saturday in the mid to upper 50s, and only lower 50s for Sudnay. In fact, for Monday, highs will struggle to reach 40!!! The pattern for next week is definitely cooler, and will persist awhile.

As for March, we are on record pace, averaging some 12 degrees above average for the month, which is a huge amount. That number will come down a bit after next week, but still, it will likely be a record March.

Daylight is at 12 hrs and 20 minutes, and climbing…

And Astronomically, things are very quiet. They always are from early January to early April…

Cooler air is sinking in from the north overnight tonight, and it will only get cooler over the weekend with a storm moving through. And after that, a change in the jet stream (the river current of wind at 20 to 50,000 feet that steers large-scale weather around), will allow cooler air from Canada to return…and Monday, a second cold front will sweep through early, bringing a bit of a chill to the air, believe it or not. So, next week…no more 70s and 80 degree readings. We may have to wait till it’s more normal for it to occur, before it returns. Meanwhile, lows tonight should settle near 50F again. Highs Friday near 65F, and Saturday closer to 55, maybe only 50F for Sunday. And if that second cool front does get here Monday, maybe only 40s for Monday. But the pattern is changing, and will allow for cooler Canadian air to be able to break back in from time to time. So it was nice for temps to get as high as gas prices for this week, but the temps (if not the gas) will tumble now…