Operation: Abominable Snowman

The first snow-threat of the season continues
School Forecast for:
Thursday October 27th
Last Updated: 8:00PM Tuesday October 25, 2016

Two Hour Delay No School Early Dismissal
30% 10% 0%

Tuesday October 25, 2016

Highlights:

A storm will impact the region on Thursday.
Temperatures will be cold enough in the morning to support snow.
Kingston is likely to see its first snowflakes of the season.
There is uncertainty in the timing and intensity of the early morning precipitation; these factors will determine exactly how much snow we see.
All rain is expected from the late morning though the evening.

Overall, the big picture has not changed much since yesterday.
Cold air will be in place over the region Wednesday night and Thursday morning. An approaching storm system will move into this cooler air Thursday morning, potentially resulting in a period of frozen precipitation. Temperatures will then rise throughout the day, resulting in rain. The critical aspect in this picture remains the exact timing of when the storm begins to impact the region — this will determine how long we are exposed to any frozen precipitation.

The main change over the past 24 hours has been for a delay in the onset of precipitation. Current timing suggests a chance of light precipitation after about 3am, with a much higher probability of steadier precipitation arriving around 11am. Any snow that falls will likely do so in the 3am to 11am time frame. Temperatures during this time will likely be in the 28 - 36 degree range, which can support light snow accumulations. Current expectations are for a light coating of snow that sticks to most surfaces, however, the possibility still exists for anything from non-accumulating snow showers to around an inch. A steady rain is likely throughout the rest of the day.

Kingstonsnows is currently monitoring the potential for light snow Thursday morning. Trends over the past day have been for the Thursday night/Friday storm to begin impacting the area Thursday morning with rain throughout the day. However, there will be enough cold air in place during the early morning that if precipitation moves in early enough, it could fall as snow before changing over to rain. At this time, it appears that IF any snow falls and IF it sticks, it could generally accumulate on the order of a coating to half inch in the immediate Kingston area.

A full update is planned for
Tuesday afternoon… stay tuned!

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Sunday October 23, 2016

The week ahead looks to be mainly cool and calm. High pressure will begin to move in on Monday, allowing for generally clear conditions to persist through Wednesday. This will also allow for cooler air to seep into the region, which should keep afternoon high temperatures in the 50s. Overnight temperatures will likely drop well below freezing by mid-week, which could lead to widespread frost. Clouds ahead of an approaching storm system keep temperatures cooler on Thursday, before a potential storm system approaches for the end of the week.

A couple weeks ago, Kingstonsnows did a 2016 Summer Weather Summary [Link] outlining notable warmth and dry conditions that had been gripping the region. New York State issued its first "drought watch" [Link] since 2002 back in July, however, Kingston's water reserves were near normal at the time. Since then, the conditions have continued to deteriorate leading Kingston officials to issue a "drought alert" this week [Link]. The alert advises residents to voluntarily conserve water, and is the first advisory issued since 2012.

So how bad is the drought?

Parts of New York have been in severe drought conditions for quite some time now, however, the developments across the Hudson Valley are fairly recent. Back on July 21st, it was reported that the main Kingston water source was 93% full, which is normal for this time of year. As of this weekend the water levels have fallen to 75%. This indicates that something happened over the past 12 weeks.

In the six weeks leading up to September 1st, precipitation across the Hudson Valley was slightly above normal at Mohonk Lake, and roughly 90% of normal at Poughkeepsie. In the six weeks between September 1st and today, both locations saw these percentages drop significantly - Mohonk Lake has seen 30% of its normal rainfall, while Poughkeepsie received a mere 15%. And if we just look at the first half of October, the picture gets even worse with Monhonk remaining near 30%, but with Poughkeepsie having received just one percent of its normal 2.4 inches! The graph below divides these percentages by month at both locations.

Caption: While July saw above normal precipitation for both Poughkeepsie (blue) and Mohonk (orange), rainfall amounts have steadily fallen well below normal at a significant rate since then. Both locations were well below average in September, and remained so into October.
Click image for larger version

The following provides a historical context for the lack of rainfall.

Poughkeepsie
Records go back 67 years

Time Period Rank
September 6th driest on record
September 1st to October 15th Driest on record
October 1st to 15th 3rd driest on record

Mohonk Lake
Records go back 120 years

Time Period Rank
September 19th driest on record
September 1st to October 15th 7th driest on record
October 1st to 15th 21st driest on record

In short, the drought has become rather substantial in just a few weeks. The current forecast notes the possibility of rain showers late in the week, however, it seems unlikely that there will be much improvement in the dry conditions within the next two weeks. Please do your part to conserve water.

Kingstonsnows will be updating every Sunday through the end of October, unless conditions warrant more frequent updates. As we head into November and the snow season, regular updates will become more frequent and detailed.