UPA minority quota a peek into the heart of Indian politics

Long time readers of this blog will already know this, but what the heck. I dont think there is really much to Indian politics beyond large swathes of people voting for benefit protection and an ever shrinking free agent population wondering why price rise, rampant corruption, and all around filth are not voting issues. Of course, there is a lot of intrigue, sideshow, and drama that happens around this core. This drama is passed around as the great Indian dance of democracy.

In this light the Ranganath Mishra report is going to be a turning point. It is not about the sideshow but about the core. Just follow these news items and note where they finally end.

National Campaign to start.

Popular Front of India, (PFI), will launch a nationwide two-month long “National Campaign for Muslim Reservation” during February and March this year. The nationwide campaign will start with a grand public meeting at Pune in Maharashtra on January 31. A Parliament March will be held at New Delhi to mark the conclusion of the campaign.

MRM takes quota war to Congress bastion

In a shrewd move to turn up the heat on those who matter, Muslim pro-quota activists have zeroed in on Amethi as the next destination for airing their demands. The Muslim Reservation Movement (MRM), a conglomerate of minority outfits like Jamait-ul-Ulema, Jamait-ul-Qureshi, Milli Council, Muslim Majlis, Indian National League, etc, on Wednesday announced its decision to storm the Gandhi bastion — either Amethi or Jagdishpur — where it would host meetings and jalsa in January/February 2010.

Demanding that the government implement the Ranganath Mishra Commission report, LJP secretary-general Abdul Khaliq said any attempt to take out a portion for minorities from the 27 per cent reservation already available to OBCs will create tension. “The government should approach the Supreme Court for raising the 50 per cent limit on reservation.”

Mr. Khaliq said that Centre should provide reservation in the manner done in Tamil Nadu and recently in Rajasthan. “The Tamil Nadu government gives 67 per cent reservation to various communities in the State and the Rajasthan government recently announced an additional 15 per cent reservation in excess of 50 per cent to the economically backward class in the State.”

What he really said was, the 50% limit is silly and meaningless in a country where 85% are backward. He is correct though, there is little or no room to accommodate the muslims and christians in the OBC quota because there will be millions of new entrants. Ditto to the new claimants to the SC quota.

There appears to be three options left on the table if the UPA (Congress led) wants to action the Ranganath report

Expand the quota beyond 50% to around 71% (15% for minority OBC and 6% for minority SC) pushing out open category seats

Evaluate the BC list and move castes out and make room for the more backward keeping the 50% ceiling

Pull the great Indian rope trick again. Increase the quota to 71%, but add extra seats so that the open category has the same number of seats as today.

Any guesses which option will win?

If you push anyone on the quota issue, he will eventually seek to settle the argument using the Tamilnadu trump card. Which is where the buck really stops. The TV channels are letting off Ms Jayanthi Natarajan and P Chidambaram far too easily on this one. Please ask them if they support studying the quota system in their state next time they are on your show. You will be in for a surprise.

So the question in front of the nation is : Why cant I have what you just gave him ?

The most primordial question of justice.

If we drop the ball on this one, forget China – we cant even stand up to Bangladesh. It will only be a matter of time.

Popular Front of India, (PFI), will launch a nationwide two-month long “National Campaign for Muslim Reservation” during February and March this year. The nationwide campaign will start with a grand public meeting at Pune in Maharashtra on January 31. A Parliament March will be held at New Delhi to mark the conclusion of the campaign.

We can pretty much guess how this one will play out. Congress will actually chicken out, opting for Muslim only universities or extensions for AMU. At least for UPA 2.0, the electoral benefits are not clearcut.
Regional parties like SP, RJD etc. will make a huge issue out of it.
They will have to give some incentive to Hindu OBCs as well to support it. I foresee massive hikes in quotas, up to 85%.
Finally, UPA 3.0 will see a UPA 1.0 like mix and Muslim (and Christian) quotas will be put permanently into the constitution.

In the final form of quotas, we will likely see a 10 – 15% open competition seats. This mirrors the conventionally accepted percentage of Non-reservation Hindus.