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The Truth will emerge: Concerns about Paul Pierce premature

Not 10 seconds after Paul Pierce sat at the podium for his annual Media Day interview, someone told the Celtics captain, “It looks like you’ve lost weight.”

“You know, they’ve said that the last 10 years I’ve been in the NBA,” Pierce responded in late September. “I’ve heard that every year.”

After 14 seasons in a Celtics uniform, Pierce understands that some questions simply become an annual tradition: Is he in shape? How does he feel about the C’s title chances? What’s his contract status? How much longer will he play?

His shooting percentages (41.4 percent on field goals, 35.1 percent on three pointers, 81.7 percent on free throws) all reside at Kevin Garnett Era lows. In fact, the last time Pierce’s scoring numbers looked this ordinary, he started alongside Mike James, Jiri Welsch, Mark Blount and Vin Baker.

Here’s one explanation: Pierce’s struggles result from a new role with new teammates. While the number of isolation plays called for him has declined by almost 20 percent since the Celtics last reached the NBA Finals, his attempts off screens have risen steadily from 5.5 percent in 2009-10 to 20.6 percent this year.

As Pierce said, the delicate balance of staying true to the strengths that made him the second-leading scorer in Celtics history and maximizing this team’s offensive prowess “is a combination of being aggressive, learning my teammates, learning a new offense also and understanding where my shots are going to come from.”

Some argue Pierce’s new role is simply a way to preserve him for the playoffs, where knee problems last season probably cost the Celtics another trip to the finals. But that argument doesn’t hold much water when you consider: a) his 34.3 minutes per game remains consistent with his previous three years, and b) his usage rate (28.2) actually ranks higher than any season since 2006-07.

In reality, the new approach has been remarkably effective. The percentage of Pierce’s field goals coming from assists has steadily risen from 47.9 percent in 2007-08 to 61.5 percent this season, so the Celtics are creating more shots for him rather than vice versa, but that doesn’t mean his attempts are any more or less difficult.

Give or take a fraction of a field goal, Pierce averages the same number of shots per game from everywhere on the floor that he did in his previous five seasons. This year, he’s attempting 4.7 field goals per game within 9 feet, 4.7 from midrange and 4.6 from beyond the arc. From 2007-12, he averaged 4.8, 4.8 and 4.1, respectively.

Pierce is getting his shots; he’s just not making them. So, while it may be no more comforting, here’s another explanation for Pierce’s struggles: This is his M.O.

Since Garnett’s arrival, Pierce has shot significantly better after the NBA All-Star break (47.7 on field goals, 38.0 percent from beyond the arc) than before (45.5 percent on field gaols, 31.3 percent on treys), accentuated by last year’s remarkable 58.5 true shooting percentage after the All-Star Game. In related news, the C’s started last season 15-17 before the break and finished 24-10 after it.

In other words, Pierce plays himself into a rhythm over the course of a season. He admits as much. After practices: “I know what I need to do to be ready, and that’s the key.” And after games: “We’re not at where we want to be, but that’s going to come as we play more games, as the year goes along, until we reach our peak.”

Look no further than this season for evidence. Pierce shoots better on no rest (46.7 field goal percentage, 39.4 percent beyond the arc) than one, two or three-plus days of rest (37.8 percent, 30.3 percent). His numbers off the ball, including a vastly improved rebounding rate, also reflect a player in search of his rhythm rather than one on the decline.

What’s wrong with Paul Pierce? The Celtics captain has heard that question when he’s struggled for a one- or two-month stretch every winter for the past five years. Before asking it again, remember Rivers' reminder to everyone back in September: “Paul is a gym rat. Paul is a guy I’ve never really worried about.”

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