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Ryf and Hoffman Headline IRONMAN African Championship

A long IRONMAN championship drought is about to come to screeching halt in Port Elizabeth, South Africa this weekend.

by Michael Lovato

Our women's and men's pro fields for this year's Standard Bank IRONMAN African Championship include incredibly talented athletes with resumes rich with championship victories—from Kona to Africa to Europe to North America. And each field sees numerous top level athletes toeing the line, in an effort to establish themselves with early season victories, valuable KPR points, and a share of the $100,000 on offer for the first of five IRONMAN regional championship races.

Daniela Ryf is in the midst of a most impressive hot streak. Coupled with the disappointment of an IRONMAN European Championship DNF last year, the dominant Swiss athlete has only tasted defeat once, at the 2016 IRONMAN 70.3 World Championship. She comes to Nelson Mandela Bay as a clear favorite to take the win, and even to factor into the top ten times overall within the men's race. She has no weakness, and proved that with race best bike and run splits in Kona last year, after exiting the water only three seconds out of first. In short, she comes to this race in a class of her own, and her fellow competitors will have to work especially hard to unseat her highness from the thrown.

On the men's side, last year's champion, Ben Hoffman, returns to Port Elizabeth in an effort to duplicate the success he enjoyed in 2016, highlighted by that win and a fourth-place finish in Kona. His determination over the off season, and focus on this event puts the well-rounded American as a favorite to take home another title.

Looking deeper at the fields who have assembled to take down these favorites, and to make pundits and predictors look bad, we see a host of international talent on hand.

Ryf comes in strong

Last year's winner, Kaisa Lehtonen is back to defend her title. She is well rounded, has the experience of a top-five Kona finish to her credit (2016), and will face less pressure than Ryf. Last year she was able to break away from her competitors with a sub-5-hour bike, then ran a solid 3:02; if she duplicates that performance, she'll be very near the front all day.

Third in 2015 and second in 2016, Britain's Susie Cheetham looks to take one more step up the podium. She's one of the quickest runners in the race, and has been based in South Africa since January. If minimizes time lost on the bike, she is one of the few women who could feasibly run down Ryf.

Other contenders include Germany's Julia Gajer, last year's IRONMAN North American champion, and three-time IRONMAN champion, Danielle Mack from the United States. On the right day, these two athletes have what it takes to upset the favorites, and to surprise the world with their blinding speed across the bike and run.

I expect to see Daniela Ryf lead out of the water, and post another sub-4:50 bike split, a powerful run under 3 hours, and another notice served to the world that she means to go even faster this year in Kona. A three-way battle for second place will be underway from the late stages of the bike. I predict Cheetham, Lehtonen, and Mack to go toe to toe to toe throughout the marathon. It will come down to a familiarity of course, and Cheetham will take second, Mack third, and Lehtonen fourth. Gurutze Frades will come from off the radar with a stellar run to grab fifth place.

Hoffman poised to repeat

In the men's race, we’ll see a very competitive front-back dynamic throughout the course of this event—from swim through bike to run. Not unlike the dynamic we see year after year in Kona, I predict that the winner will come from a solid ten-person pack of cyclists who spend much of the 180km riding together.

I expect to see Frederick Van Lierde, Ben Hoffman, Eneko Llanos, Boris Stein, and Nils Frommhold be the main drivers in the multi-athlete pack that exits the water together. Others who will pay the price of the early pace out of the water and onto the bike will include the incredibly talented South African duo of James Cunnama and Kyle Buckingham. Spain's Victor Del Corral, one of the sport's quickest runners, will lose major time across the course of the bike leg, and will be left to chase all day long.

Two athletes who are highly capable dark horses in the race are Britain's Joe Skipper and Australia's Josh Amberger. Each athlete has an affinity for racing off the front. Each athlete has the cycling power to deliver and absolutely devastating bike split. The question that remains will be whether or not their run legs will show up to plan against the more balanced approach of Hoffman and Van Lierde.

Motivated by his 2:45 run split last year, I believe that Hoffman will have the legs to retain his title. Knowing his goal is clinching the Kona crown, another low 2:40s run in South Africa will give him the confidence that he can finally stay in front of the Germans come October.

A close second place will go to Boris Stein from Germany. He will make a late break off the front of the main bike group, and his slight advantage at T2 will allow him to stay away from the 2013 IRONMAN world champion, Van Lierde, who will grab third place. After and up-and-down marathon, the young Brit Joe Skipper will rally late to find his way to the finish line in fourth place ahead of a charging James Cunnama in fifth.