November 2012

11/30/2012

Today is the last day of the Atlantic hurricane season. Early predictions from NOAA in May called for an "average" season of 9-15 named storms; 4-8 of which would become hurricanes, and about 3 of THOSE would become major hurricanes (Category 3 or greater).

We had a quick start with Alberto and Beryl before the season even began in May. Then the Atlantic went quiet through June and most of July before firing back up. By the end of October we had 19 named storms, 9 hurricanes, and no major hurricanes.

Isaac and Sandy were the most memorable, because they hit the U.S. coast and caused by far the most damage. Even though these storms can be frightening, they help balance out the water table in a time of year when rainfall is scarce. Here's an image from the National Weather Service showing the tracks of all 19 named storms.

11/12/2012

Check out the temperature differences on either side of the approaching cold front... a twenty-degree drop. Most of our fronts this fall have not featured that much of a fall over such a short distance.

11/07/2012

This is the GFS model forecast (18z run time) for Thanksgiving Day. Granted, this probably won't happen. It's a forecast a couple weeks away from a notoriously unreliable model run that far out in time, but interesting nevertheless. It shows a snowstorm for the Northeastern U.S. and New England (not Virginia).

The nor'easter is hitting areas just from north of Virginia northward to southern New England with accumulating snow today and tonight. This early season snowstorm may bring a light mix towards the Northern Neck of Va overnight, otherwise we are looking for some spotty light rain possible this evening.

11/05/2012

Most all of the computer guidance is now showing just a glancing blow from the predicted Wednesday coastal storm. The map below is the forecast from the Euro model for Wednesday afternoon, keeping the bulk of mositure confined to far eastern Virginia. Even so, these systems do tend to track closer to the coast, so I wouldn't be surprised to see some rain, maybe even some wet snow from I-95 to the east.

11/02/2012

Most of the model guidance is pointing to a coastal storm the middle of next week running up the Carolina and Virgina coast to the northeast. First we should emphasize, this is NOT a Sandy type storm. It won't have the tropical underpinnings that helped foster that superstorm. However, it could develop into a decent-sized nor'easter that might produce heavy rain over interior Virginia (mainly east of the mountains). This map is the Europeon (ECMWF) model depiction for 7pm next Wednesday, showing the storm along the Virginia coast. The GFS model shows similar.