1

Apple, Inc. Delivers a Very Weak Earnings Beat

Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) beat analysts' earnings estimates on Monday afternoon, with EPS of $14.50, compared to the average estimate of $14.09. However, this accomplishment didn't sit well with investors.

First of all, Apple's revenue growth slowed to less than 6% -- in line with analyst estimates, but still not very impressive. Second, Apple's revenue guidance for the March quarter was worse than expected. In fact, the midpoint of the guidance implies a year-over-year sales decline! Third, iPhone sales growth appears to be slowing to a crawl: Apple sold just 51 million iPhones last quarter, well below what I and most other Apple followers had expected.

As a result of these disappointments, Apple stock fell as much as 9% on Tuesday morning to hover just above the $500 mark. Yet this negative reaction is overblown. While Apple's results were certainly nothing to celebrate, they weren't terrible either. Most importantly, the company's valuation remains very compelling, especially after its recent drop.

What workedIn several respects, Apple's quarter was actually stronger than expected. (After all, how else could it have beaten analysts' earnings estimates?) Most notably, gross margin was 37.9%, which exceeded the 36.5%-37.5% guidance range. This was still below Apple's 38.6% gross margin from the prior-year quarter -- however, a change in Apple's revenue deferral policy completely accounts for the drop.

Therefore Apple investors can stop worrying about a spiral of declining profit margins. For next quarter, Apple expects its gross margin to remain roughly flat with the prior-year figure of 37.5%, despite the continuing impact of the revenue deferral. As a result, Apple is on track to post stable or improving margins for the full year.

iPad and Mac sales were also bright spots last quarter. While my projection that Apple would sell 28 million iPads turned out to be too optimistic, the company still grew iPad unit sales 14% year over year to 26 million, coming in ahead of what most Wall Street analysts expected.

Meanwhile, the Mac product line rebounded from a weak quarter a year ago when iMac supply constraints caused a big sales decline. Market research firms IDC and Gartner (NYSE: IT) had produced wildly different projections of Apple's December quarter Mac sales, and Gartner's bullish view was accurate, as Mac unit sales grew 19% year over year.

Is the iPhone done growing?If there's one reason why investors are panicking about Apple's latest quarterly earnings report, it's the fear that the iPhone -- Apple's main engine -- is done growing. The iPhone represented more than 56% of Apple's revenue last quarter. Moreover, it carries higher margins than other Apple products, so it could easily account for two-thirds to three-quarters of Apple's earnings.

Investors seem to be worried that iPhone demand is eroding. Source: Apple.

Thus, if iPhone sales are really stagnating, it will be tough for Apple to generate any future earnings growth. However, iPhone sales growth is likely to strengthen later this year for two reasons.

First, U.S. iPhone sales fell last quarter. Some people have blamed this on the growth of no-contract/no-subsidy plans pushed by T-Mobile (NYSE: TMUS) and others, but there may be a more banal explanation. Verizon (NYSE: VZ) and AT&T (NYSE: T) changed their upgrade policies last year to make postpaid customers wait a full 24 months, rather than just 20 months. The timing of those changes is delaying some upgrades from last quarter and the current quarter until the spring. However, after that, the effect will be relatively small.

Second, Apple recently began selling the iPhone through China Mobile (NYSE: CHL) , which is the world's largest wireless carrier with around 750 million subscribers. However, it will take a while for this new massive sales channel to ramp up, something that some Apple bulls previously overlooked.

Tim Cook noted on Apple's earnings call that China Mobile has only rolled out 4G service in 16 cities so far, but it plans to grow that to 300 cities by the end of the year. This will greatly expand Apple's reach within China. The biggest opportunity will come with the launch of Apple's next-generation iPhones later this year. Apple may release a larger-screened phone, attracting a new high-end clientele, and it will also probably drop the iPhone 5C to a more affordable price point then.

Foolish bottom lineApple turned in a mixed performance in its December quarter. iPad and Mac sales grew nicely, and the company's gross margin is now stabilizing around 38%. Combined with Apple's ongoing share repurchase program, this was enough to drive a 5% jump in EPS, to $14.50 -- beating the average analyst estimate.

However, investors are currently ignoring these positives because of the fear that the iPhone is about to crash and burn. That's not likely to happen. The China Mobile iPhone rollout will continue to gain steam over the next several quarters as the carrier adds new 4G cities, and particularly after Apple refreshes its product portfolio. Meanwhile, Apple's U.S. iPhone sales should bounce back this spring when the impact of the Verizon and AT&T upgrade policy changes will moderate.

In short, Apple still has a clear path to steady (if not rapid) profit growth -- without even looking at the potential impact of new product categories. Yet the company trades for less than 10 times trailing earnings, after deducting Apple's massive cash pile from its stock price. Investors should therefore consider Apple's recent drop as a potential buying opportunity rather than a sell signal.

Apple's next growth opportunityIf you thought the iPod, the iPhone, and the iPad were amazing, just wait until you see this. 100 of Apple's top engineers are busy building one in a secret lab. And an ABI Research report predicts 485 million of them could be sold over the next decade. But you can invest in it right now... for just a fraction of the price of AAPL stock. Click here to get the full story in this eye-opening new report.

Comments from our Foolish Readers

Help us keep this a respectfully Foolish area! This is a place for our readers to discuss, debate, and learn more about the Foolish investing topic you read about above. Help us keep it clean and safe. If you believe a comment is abusive or otherwise violates our Fool's Rules, please report it via the Report this Comment icon found on every comment.

I find myself, once more, commenting in one of your articles and although once more I do not agree in it's entirety I must recommend it because I find it full of useful information. Keep the good work!

This is one of the most ridiculous articles I've read yet on Apple. You call their numbers "weak earnings" ?? They netted over $13 billion in profit and that is after paying a dividend, buying back $8 billion of their stock, funding acquisitions and paying R&D, MKT and G&A expenses. They went from $146 billion in cash to $159 billion and you completely ignore that. Wake up from the ether.

You Motley authors are truly amateurs and clowns. Thanks for wasting my time.

It is clear that the fall is not about the quarter results which beat most projections, but a clear sinal that no one trusts Tim Cook will be able to launch products that will keep apple growing in the future.

I think everybody should recognize that I'm calling Apple's earnings a "very weak beat"... not very weak earnings. As I made clear in the article, Apple's earnings report was fairly good.

However, once you get beyond the bottom line EPS figure, which was above consensus, the report looks a lot worse. iPhone sales barely grew at all, and most of the growth was due to Apple increasing channel inventory, not actual sales to customers. I will delve further into the iPhone numbers today.

In any case, I still think that Apple is a great buy. That's because I'm pretty confident iPhone growth will accelerate later this year. However, if you think this week's earnings report was the most wonderful thing ever you are just burying your head in the sand... which is never a good idea as an investor.

The author overlooks the fact that Apple's guidance was really quite accurate, arguably better than the average analyst. This will become an important trend in my opinion. Apple may not tell us what it spends its money on on a line-by-line basis (which would give away competitive advantage information), but it tells us quite well how much. I think the market will eventually adjust to trust and respect Apple's guidance and stability. And I can say that for me, personally, the dividend is quite nice. I cant wait to see it grow. But that may take a (literal) act of Congress.

Sending report...

Adam Levine-Weinberg is a senior Industrials/Consumer Goods specialist with The Motley Fool. He is an avid stock-market watcher and a value investor at heart. He primarily covers airline, auto, retail, and tech stocks. Follow him on Twitter for the latest news and commentary on the airline industry! Follow @AdamLLW