Sunday, December 30, 2012

But the main reason I won’t write off the Yankees: the pitching staff. I still like the quality and depth of the starting rotation:
CC Sabathia—He did have surgery to remove a small bone spur from his elbow but is expected to be ready for spring training. Otherwise, he was arguably better than ever in 2012, with a league-leading strikeout-walk ratio and .238 batting average allowed.
Hiroki Kuroda—Pitched a career-high 219 innings while winning 16 games with a 3.32 ERA, adapting without a problem to the AL.
Phil Hughes—Had a solid season other than the 35 home runs allowed. Walked just 46 batters in 32 starts, so if he can cut off 10 home runs, he’ll look more like a No. 3 than a 4 or 5.
Andy Pettitte—Made just 12 starts but was very effective with a 2.87 ERA. He hasn’t lost much in stuff—in fact, his strikeout percentage matched the highest of his career. If the Yankees can get 25 starts out of him, they’ll likely be good ones.
David Phelps—Sleeper breakout candidate for 2013. Fastball in the 90-92 mph range, good cutter, a curveball and an improving changeup. Good minor league numbers, good numbers as a rookie as a reliever/spot starter.
Ivan Nova—Good rebound candidate, despite the ERA spike from 2011. His strikeout rate was much higher than in 2011 and his walk rate was slightly better, but he suffered a .331 average on balls in play, third highest among all qualified starting pitchers. There are reasons that happened but the stuff is there to suggest improvement is possible if he adjusts.
Michael Pineda—The wild card if he can bounce back from shoulder problems.

When I look at the strengths of teams entering a season, I place a huge emphasis on the depth of rotations. Few teams make it through the season with just five starters. Few make it through with six. So you need that depth. The Yankees have it—certainly more depth than the other AL East teams. Yes, Toronto’s rotation could be outstanding if Josh Johnson makes 30 starts (good luck) and if R.A. Dickey has another Cy Young-caliber season (I do like his chances) and if Brandon Morrow can pitch more than 179 innings for the first time and if Ricky Romero can bounce back. The Tampa rotation could be terrific again, but the Rays have to replace James Shields’ 33 starts and 227 innings.

Before the new year begins, I figured it would be nice to throw in a little optimism into our offseason.

“I was opening my boxes,” Churchill wrote in his war memoirs,[1] “when the telephone at my bedside rang. It was the First Sea Lord [Admiral Sir Dudley Pound]. His voice sounded odd. He gave a sort of cough and gulp, and at first I could not hear quite clearly. ‘Prime Minister, I have to report to you that the Prince of Wales and the Repulse have both been sunk by the Japanese—we think by aircraft. [Vice Admiral] Tom Phillips is drowned.’ ‘Are you sure it’s true?’ ‘There is no doubt at all.’ So I put the telephone down. I was thankful to be alone. In all the war I never received a more direct shock.

Are the Yankees aware that with a limited payrol they should stop using the rule not to extend players until they reach FA? Because when money is an issue, you have to be a little be creative and take some risks here and there.

[12] I think the Yankees’s first priority is to try to extend Cano. What (and if) they can extend him for, will determine a lot of other things. Including how much money is in the budget, and if they need to budget for replacing Cano. Also, they probably want to get further in the off-season before talking about extending anyone. If Cashman is working on any trades, that could greatly change who he has available both for depth, and also for future trade-chips.

I agree that extending Hughes is smart. But there are also limits and how knows what he and his agent are looking for? If they can get a 3/24 extension (starting in 2014) I think it’s a no-brainer. Even if Hughes is “only” a 150-175IP, 1.5 WAR type of pitcher, it’s still probably fair-value, and gives the Yankees some certainity in the rotation. And it’s still cheap enough that even with the payroll restrictions isn’t a killer if Hughes is less than that. However, if he wants 4/48 - thinking he can build on last year and eclipse 200IP w/ an ERA under 4 (supporting peripherals)...well I can see why the Yankees would want to wait.

The more I think about it, the more I understand waiting on extending Hughes. The Yankees probably want to see if Nova can bounce back and if Pineda can come back reasonably healthy. If both of those things happen (however unlikely they may be) Hughes is probably expendable.

I don’t have a lot of reason to be, but I’m still bullish on Nova. Pineda I fear is done as a viable MLB starting pitcher.

I am bullish on Phelps and Nova. But if they extend Hughes to a friendly contract (I do think is likely that he could take a 4 year 35 million contract) they could trade him easily after this season or after 2014 when you are confident that 2 of Pineda, Phelps, Nova and Banuelos are efective MLB pitchers. But by extending him now you buy some insurance against a very difficult 2013 offseason.

[14, 15] Seems like there are going to be a lot of free agents pitchers in 2014 - Garza, Johnson, Lincecum, Wainwright, Volquez, Haren, Floyd, Hammel and some interesting but older options like Carpenter, Halladay (not sure if his recent injury/ineffectiveness affects his 2014 vesting option), and Hudson. Jimenez I think has an option, too.

Is that a saturated market? If it is, does that help the Yankees if Hughes takes a step forward and gets into the 3-4 WAR tier? The thing is, with the exception of maybe Wainwright and Garza, I could see Hughes, if he’s coming off a 3-4 WAR year, being the most desirable option of all of them. He’ll only be 28 - 2 years younger than Garza and Lincecum and 4 years younger than Wainwright.

This is where the lack of financial might really hurts. They should try to extend him and self insure against his ineffectiveness. The reward might be one of the most desirable, though not so flashy assets in MLB - a 3-4 war pitcher signed at like a 50% discount for his peak years.

I think that, even if Pineda and Nova have a good 2013, it will not have been a mistake to extend Hughes (unless it’s for dollars significantly higher than those we’ve been contemplating here.
If you wait, you probably lose the option of a reasonably priced Hughes for 2014 unless he’s terrible. In the old days, that would mean avoiding a risk because you could pay the price to keep him if he were good. Now it looks more like it’s worth taking a smaller-priced risk to increase your ability to fill out the rotation with at-least-decent, still-with-upside options for 2014.

Pineda I fear is done as a viable MLB starting pitcher.

It’s not that I think the opposite, but do we have compelling reason to expect one thing rather than another from Pineda? Is this an operation with which we have extensive experience showing that post-op velocity is consistently and significantly lower than previously? Or do we just not know?

Of the 67 pitchers I identified, 20 didn’t return to the majors at all, though that count includes two (Jon Garland and Peter Moylan) who underwent surgery too recently to be counted out. Six of the remaining 18 (Matt Clement, Dirk Hayhurst, Eric Hurley, Prior, Brandon Webb, and Paul Wilson) pitched in the minors but were unable to pitch well enough to return to the majors; Hayhurst, Hurley, Prior, and Webb were active last year, and may yet write happier endings to their tales of woe. Nineteen others pitched less than 50 major-league innings following surgery, a count that includes the still-active Jose Ascanio, Travis Blackley, Boof Bonser, Brandon Lyon, Dustin McGowan, Troy Patton, and Clayton Richard; those 19 have totaled exactly 0.0 WARP in their post-surgical careers. So that’s 58 percent with little to no return thus far. Fifty-seven percent of our “notable” list, mind you; doubtless there are dozens (hundreds?) of minor leaguers who aren’t included here.

[20] Most of them, I’d bet. That’s not a list of some stud pitchers that should be FA’s in 3, 4, or 5 years - if that was the case, it’d be foolish to assume that all or even most would make it to FA. Those guys are all 1 year away from FA. I really doubt the pitchers who haven’t signed deals that bought out FA years would give up getting into the market in their age 30, 31 and 32 seasons to give a team friendly extension, especially since they’ve come this far (Garza and Lincecum). Then there’s guys like Wainwright and Jimenez, who are nearing the end of their extremely team friendly deals and are a year away from hitting the market - they likely won’t extend either. Some could, sure, but I’d say it’s safe to be that there will be a glut of starting pitchers available next offseason.

[21] Of course further down in Jaffe’s column, he notes when you dig a little deeper he could only find 3 pitchers that he thinks had really comparable surgery. Wade Miller, Jose Valverde, and Annibel Sanchez, with Sanchez being the most like. I’ll take Sanchez’s career-arc, thanks.

But realistically, we have no idea what to expect of Pineda. He could come back in June better than ever, or he could never pitch again.

I agree with [15] however; between Nova, Pineda, Phelps, Marshall, and Turley, they have 5 pitchers who will all be cheap in 2014 (and still fairly cheap in 2015/16), all of whom could show they belong in a big-league rotation in 2014. Or all of whom could fail miserably. I still think extending Hughes for the right price is smart - as dak notes he’s tradeable - but it has to be the right price.

Isn’t “at the right price” kind of assumed? Unless he’s a killer or something I think I’d like just about any player in baseball on my team if the price is right. For example Adrian Gonzalez Josh Beckett and Carl Crawford would all be nice additions to the 2013 Yankees if they were super cheap.

In terms of extending Hughes and trading him, is it possible to re-negotiate this year’s contract? Best case (IMO) would be to pull a Marlins and front-load the deal so the Yankees are paying the bulk of the dollars and then another team can absorb the AAV but not have to pay as much. I believe I understand the system properly, but it is very difficult.

My idea would be to do something like 4 years, $32 million (or something similar), but have the first year payout being $15MM. Teams like the Dodgers, Angels, et al. might be worried about the AAV, but teams like the Royals and A’s are worried about how much they have to pay, not the AAV.

It’s probably a pipe dream, but I’d hate to see Hughes leave and then find success elsewhere considering how much we (the fans) have gone through and have invested in him. I know that’s irrational, but I don’t care. We’ve seen him suck for years. We’ve earned success.

ААV for another team, for luxury tax purposes, surely would be AAV for the part of the contract that team absorbs, no?
Front-loading wouldn’t help NYY for luxury tax purposes, but should certainly help make him more tradeable, I think.

[32] In terms of extending Hughes and trading him, is it possible to re-negotiate this year’s contract?

This year, meaning 2013? He doesn’t have a 2013 contract. They work the arbitration eligible players in January. But, it would seem logical that if they were at all interested in extending him, that a contract that went beyond this year would be on the table. We should find out soon what they are going to do.

[32 and others] The AAV for luxury tax purposes is the same regardless, but if there were a trade IDK what it would do. I’d wager if anything, the Yankees would be hit with the “excess” AAV. That is, if it’s 4/32 w/ 14MM in the first year (easiery math), I imagine the new team would get dinged for the actual value ($6MM per year) while Yankees would get dinged for the difference between AAV of the full deal and the remaining ($2MM). However, I think about any team would be OK taking Hughes on at 3/24 after 2013, unless he completely crashes.

FWIW, Hughes doesn’t currently have a contract. He’s arb-eligible, he and the Yankees have not yet signed a 2013 contract, and won’t exchange figures until sometime next month. So they could very well sign him to a multi-year contract covering 2013. They may just be waiting to hear what his agent thinks Hughes is worth in 2013…say the agent submits $6MM (may be low but for argument’s sake). Offer Hughes 3/27 (same payments each year), would be like signing a 2/21 after 2013, but he’s getting $3MM of that a year early, and would still be a FA before turning 30.

[40] Good move yes. But IDK if it will be easy to do. I think you could look at some of the contracts thrown around this year and Hughes’s agent could make the case (to him) that Phil could easily get 4/52 after 2013, maybe as high as 5/75 if he has a strong year. How much of that would he be willing to give up for the certaintity of getting the $$‘s secured now? Would he do 4/40 (includes 2013) now? Maybe, maybe not. But IDK if anyone is willing to go higher than that right now.

I kept reading “extension” thinking he is under contract already similar to the way Cano was (i.e., team bought out his arbitration years already). After I submitted I realized that they had been going year to year with Hughes, so the proposed situation works a lot better.

If the Yankees have to “pay” the difference in terms of AAV to a team that Hughes is traded to, the scenario is not so great. The simplicity of the idea was to give a team like the Marlins or the A’s an AAV of $12MM per year but they are only actually paying $5MM per year which is really all they care about, right?

I could be totally off base in thinking that teams that are not even close to the luxury tax threshold worry more about actual dollars paid than AAV.

I remember when the Yankees traded Ron Hassey and Joe Cowley for Britt Burns after 1985. Burns was a 26 yr old pitcher coming off an 18 win season, who never pitched another inning. For some reason every time I hear ‘Pineda’ I think of that.

[42] If they extend Hughes (sort of a misnomer, as you say - it’s really buying out his arb and some FA years), then he’s obviously eminently tradeable depending on how much money they send in the deal. One of these posts said something like “at the right price” - well, if they extend Hughes and he stinks, I’m sure they can send him and 95% of his salary to any MLB team. The acquiring team gets the AAV hit for only what they are paying - AAV isn’t like Friedman’s ‘carbon credits.’

The issue I think is the Yankees and their ability to self insure their mistakes. As an example, Carl Pavano was more of a punchline than anything. Teams with budgets likely would have been screwed for the duration of that contract because he became a total dud. If the Yankees really are going to stick to a budget, they have to limit (or eliminate) those deals that require and receive self-insurance. I’m thinking of Pavano, Wright, Burnett, etc.

So, because they need to know if Hughes will actually be worth it, they may not want to gamble. That said, I don’t think they’re going to have a problem keeping him if they want to. I’ve mentioned a few times this offseason - they are going to have a hard time giving out money in 2014 to fill out a 25 man. Hughes coming off a 3 WAR year should be the 1st candidate to get it.

[48] Yes, I disagree with that premise. I made a post about the 2014 payroll situation probably a few weeks ago, and they’ve since committed to Suzuki for 2014, so here’s how I have it right now, using AAV’s. First I put the roster together then I figure out how much money we have to address needs, glaring or otherwise:

IF (4): Teixiera, Cano, Jeter, Rodriguez. $82.6M. I gave Cano $18M AAV - I think that’s a reasonable estimate.
C (1): Romine. $0.5M.
OF (2) : Ichiro, Gardner. $11M. I gave Gardner $4.5M for his Arb 3 year.
Rotation (5) : Sabathia, Hughes, Nova, Phelps, Pineda. $41.9M. I gave Hughes a $13M AAV, Nova $2.5M for his Arb 1 year, and Pineda $1.5M for his Arb 1 year. Pineda could flop, in which case you replace him with Banuelos or Marshall making $0.5M.
Bullpen (4): Robertson, Rapada, Eppley and Montgomery. $5.8M. D-Rob gets $4M AAV in his Arb 3 year.
Bench (4): Dickerson, Nunez, Adams, Stewart. $2.5M. All make the min or close to it as arb 1’s.

That’s 20 players making $144M. The $189M luxury tax is based on the 40 man roster and includes benefits, so I add $7.5M for those 15 other players and $11M for the benefits and I’m up to ~$163M.

This team needs a starting corner OF, a DH (or a more legit bench option so guys Teixeira or Rodriguez can DH), probably a SP, and 3 bullpen pitchers and has $26M to work with.

Keep in mind, also, that I kept Hughes and gave him $13M because I assumed he made the next step in 2013 - so he’s a 3-4 WAR pitcher slotting in at #2 behind Sabathia. If you look at that rotation and say ‘meh’ because of how you feel about Hughes, and if he’s still that kind of pitcher, then you just walk away from him and free up that money.

I’ll give Cashman the credit he deserves and say he can round out the bullpen with $3M.

We know about the internal OF options - Heaathcott, Williams, Austin. Interesting FA’s are Ellsbury, Cruz, Pence, Choo, Morse, Granderson, maybe Murphy. If you wanted a straight up DH, there’s Morales. Chase Utley is also an intersting guy - he’ll be 35. Brian Roberts is out there coming off injury. Youkilis will also be a FA, and he may be an option again.

I discussed the wide range of SP’s available in 2014 - guys like Wainwright, Garza and Lincecum who are on the wrong side of 30 figure to get the premier contracts, but it looks like there are some bargains out there too (Carpenter, maybe Halladay, Hudson, Santana figures to be bought out, Haren.)

So, with $23M AAV to work with (plus a little more depending on which SP of my 5 you are replacing), you need three guys from that list to round out your rotation and your starting 9. That doesn’t seem too difficult to me. $10M-$12M to one of those pitchers on a short deal. $11M-$13M AAV for a legit LF or maybe split that in half and go with a platoon. Or maybe an internal option works out and you can use that money to upgrade somewhere else.

I understand this team has an older Rodriguez, Teixiera and Jeter. But it should also have players like Hughes, Gardner, and Nova getting better, Cano maintainig his peak.

Also, this is why I (and I think Mike K.) were pissed when they didn’t get Melky Cabrera at $8M AAV. Even if non-steroid Melky is just who we remember him (league average offensively, above average defensively), that leaves you with $15M to make upgrades to the bench and/or rotation.

$18 million is not a reasonable estimate for Cano at all. There is absolutely no way he signs for less than $22 million, and I think odds are that it is closer to $25 million. How would Cano not get Josh Hamilton money? He’s a better player than Hamilton at a premier position and the last Yankee star in his prime to sign a longterm deal with the Yankees for less than market was….uhmmm…was there such a player?

Then you get to M-Cab, at just under $20M AAV, then Jeter at just under $19M for that big contract. There’s no 2B on the list, and basically there’s no non-1B/DH/OF except for three special cases: Rodriguez’s first deal with Texas, Rodriguez’s post-opt out deal, and Mauer’s deal that kept him in Minnesota.

The highest AAV for a 2B in history is Ian Kinsler ($15M), then Dan Uggla and Chase Utley at `$12M. History is littered with 2B who could no longer play the position into their mid 30s. Granted, Utley and Kinsler had arb and FA years bought out, so the situation isn’t exactly the same. But these are the next best 2B in the game and that’s what they’re making.

I can certainly see $20M AAV, but an $18M AAV is definitely reasonable, especially if you consider an option year dragging down the AAV. The sticking point is going to be the length of the contract. $25M AAV is not going to happen.

There hasn’t been a 2B as good as Cano to hit the open market, especially not in the last two-three years when the free agent market has exploded, money-wise (as the other teams in the Majors suddenly had enough money to bid against the top teams).

Outside of Cano, who is the best free agent position player available next season?

Ellsbury
Grandy
Choo
Prado

Not exactly an awe-inspiring list. Cano will be the best position player on the open market and he’s not going to get $22 million? I don’t buy it.

Heck, I’d love it if it wasn’t the case. I’d love it if they could get Cano for $20 million AAV. I don’t see it happening.

Both the Red Sox and the Yankees did a good job buying up the arbitration years of their stud second basemen. The Red Sox, of course, got him at a major discount, though (6 years/$40 million - and he signed that AFTER he won the MVP!).

The Cano case will be fascinating. Sure he’s the best 2B to ever hit the modern FA market. But he’ll also be 31, and we’ve yet to see massive salary inflation in the 2B market. I think they’ll probably sign Cano to a somewhat overpriced contract that we can definitely complain about, but they won’t meet any price to keep him.

[61] Remember though, it’s $18M AAV as counted by the CBA rules. I came up with $18M by figuring $140M/7 plus a $9M player option for the 8th year. That’s just over $18.5M AAV. Even if you add another full year at $20M, it doesn’t push the AAV up that much.

10/$250? Rodriguez and Pujols got that when they were clearly considered the best MLB players by most. That’s not Cano, at least not today. And Boras’s starting points are always ludicrous.

There’s no way in hell Cano will accept making less per year than Mark Teixeira.

I think a realistic contract that the Yankees would accept would be slightly more than Teix, so roughly $23 million AAV. I could live with that. I mean, this is one of the very best players in the game, ya know? I’d even be willing to go past $23 million if the contract length wasn’t too long.

[64-5] But . . . Human error is part of the game! Human error is part of the game! Human error is part of the game! Human error is part of the game! Human error is part of the game! Human error is part of the game! Human error is part of the game! Human error is part of the game! Human error is part of the game! Human error is part of the game! Human error is part of the game!

[63] Well, this conversation was about the 2014 payroll, right? So if my estimate of $18M AAV goes up to $23M AAV, that leaves you with $18M to get address DH, LF and SP. $18M seems like two players and not three, but it’s still not as grim as I feel that’s it being made out to be.

[50] I think Clay was more ticked off than I was. I definitely think they should have been in on that, or even for a bit more. However, w/o knowing if it was even possible - e.g. if Melky just wasn’t going to sign with Yankees - I’m not getting too worked up.

[69] Yeah, it’s definitely doable to field a competitive team for $189M in 2014. The issues are, we don’t know what kind of players Teix, ARod, and Jeter will be. They could all be projected to be 3-4 WAR players in 2014…or 1 WAR players. If they’re 1 WAR players, not having the salary flexibility to spend big on 4+ WAR corner outfielders, or a new 3B (move ARod to DH or whereever) hampers the team.

Well, this conversation was about the 2014 payroll, right? So if my estimate of $18M AAV goes up to $23M AAV, that leaves you with $18M to get address DH, LF and SP. $18M seems like two players and not three, but it’s still not as grim as I feel that’s it being made out to be.

Oh yeah, it’s definitely doable. I just think that if we’re going to figure out how it could work, we should use the most accurate numbers. $5 million isn’t a huge difference, but it’s definitely a noticeable difference.