Pope, Again, Heads Home And, Again, Rumors Fly

By FRANK BRUNI

Published: August 15, 2002

ROME, Aug. 14—
There are simple, sensible explanations for the trip Pope John Paul II has scheduled to Poland this weekend. It gives him another glimpse of his homeland, and allows him to dedicate a new sanctuary outside Cracow that he holds dear.

Then there is the wild, rampant speculation.

Is the 82-year-old pope on the verge of retirement, with a covert plan to announce it among his beloved countrymen? Will he steal away to a Polish villa, and never return to the Vatican?

Those tenacious rumors made a splashy return this week when a French publication presented them as genuine possibilities. Vatican officials issued the requisite denials, just as they did in response to similar accounts weeks earlier and related guesswork before that.

But the constant conjecture, no matter how idle or fanciful, touches on one of the stranger realities of John Paul's astonishingly durable reign. Day in and day out, whether bound for foreign lands or resting here, he commands the keen and sometimes restless attention of newspaper reporters, television producers, book editors and even many lay Catholics who are essentially watching, and waiting, for the curtain to fall.

It is a function of his age and ailments, and it has been going on for an awfully long time. When he traveled to Poland in 1997, some chroniclers cast it as a farewell tour. When he traveled there again in 1999, it was really, surely to be the last time.

''For at least the past 10 years, I've covered innumerable papal trips where a good number of commentators and, for that matter, spectators waved goodbye for what they were sure was the last time, and lots of emotional scripting followed,'' said William Blakemore, a veteran correspondent for ABC News who covers the Vatican.

''After a while, we began to recognize it as yet another kind of John Paul phenomenon,'' Mr. Blakemore said, referring to himself and other journalists.

They were already taking steps to be ready for that final farewell. More than five years ago, television networks began a fierce, secretive competition to lease prime real estate near the Vatican for coverage of the conclave of cardinals that will choose the next pope.

Wanted: Roman rooftops, terraces or other elevated perches that will frame St. Peter's perfectly in the backdrop, with its dome just over Peter Jennings's or Dan Rather's shoulder. Budget: hundreds of thousands of dollars, even if some of it needs to be paid each year, conclave or no conclave, just to be safe.

Although most of the major networks have devised their plan, there are still lingering recriminations over how a given piece of property was obtained, and many television producers remain in the grip of what can only be called roof envy.

For at least a decade, publishing industry executives have been lining up books about the old pope or the new pope or the process by which the Roman Catholic Church makes the transition from one to the other.

When Robert Blair Kaiser, who covers the Vatican for Newsweek, got his advance from executives at Alfred Knopf three years ago, all of the parties involved were satisfied that the money would be more than enough to tide him over until the big event.

''I thought and they thought he would be gone by now,'' said Mr. Kaiser, referring to the pope.

But, he added, ''I've pretty much used up my advance, and now my editors are hoping that I'll outlive the pope.'' Mr. Kaiser is 71.

The field of expected books is so crowded that the title that Mr. Kaiser chose for his, ''The Making of a Pope,'' is virtually identical to the one that the Rev. Andrew Greeley, a prominent Catholic sociologist, chose for his.

Father Greeley's is to be called ''The Making of the Pope,'' followed by a reference to whichever year that new pope ends up being made. He said he struck his deal with Little, Brown 10 years ago.

The authors of post-conclave books may have a tough time meeting contractual obligations to have their manuscripts ready within weeks or months of the big event. Most of these experts have also signed with one of the major American television networks to provide on-air commentary when the conclave happens.

ABC News has exclusive rights during that period to the Rev. Richard McBrien, a Notre Dame University professor, who said he sealed his deal with the network five years ago. ABC News also has dibs on Father Greeley, while Mr. Kaiser will be analyzing the proceedings for CBS News.

In many cases, experts on the Catholic Church have already given interviews for ready-made retrospectives on John Paul's life, and they continue to give new ones every few months.

The Rev. Thomas Reese, editor of the Jesuit journal America, said he began doing that 10 years ago, not just for television correspondents but also for newspaper writers working on obituaries of John Paul.

''They've got these things in the file, in the can,'' said Father Reese, who said he will probably be an expert commentator on CNN. ''The TV ones -- you'll see me with no gray hair and with gray hair and with various hair styles and different glasses on. You'll be able to date the interviews by counting the wrinkles.''

This is, to some extent, a familiar ritual. Newspapers and television networks have always prepared obituaries of important public figures well ahead of time, even if the person is young and seemingly healthy.

But the watch over the pope presents a special case. For starters, the Vatican is famously secretive, disclosing little to no information about the pope's medical regimen or any contingency plans if he winds up incapacitated, and that void only encourages speculation and worry. Journalists abhor a vacuum.

In addition, John Paul, who became pope in 1978, continues to travel and make public appearances as he struggles visibly against Parkinson's disease. For that reason, news executives catch fresh glimpses of his deterioration, which reliably prompt new reviews of coverage strategies and concerned calls to correspondents.

''Just set your clocks,'' said John L. Allen Jr., who wrote the recently published book ''Conclave'' about the coming papal election and is under contract to write -- quickly -- a book about the next pope.

''Oct. 16 is going to be the anniversary of this pope's election, and there will be another round of rumors,'' Mr. Allen said. ''Next May is his birthday -- another round of rumors. He's old, and he's been around a long time. It's good copy.''