Zimbabwean rumours

Reading tea leaves by candlelight

Is Robert Mugabe really planning to retire?

WORKERS arrived at a factory in Harare at 7am, donned their protective goggles and overalls, and started the production line humming. Three hours later, without warning, the electricity was cut off, and every cog and motor clunked to a halt. The power stayed off for four hours. By the standards of say, Nigeria, a four-hour blackout is no big deal. But Zimbabweans are used to uninterrupted electricity, so they find such things disconcerting. Also, unlike Nigerian industrialists, they rarely have back-up generators.

It is as good a symbol as any of Zimbabwe's decline. In the past five years, as President Robert Mugabe has pursued ever-more radical economic policies, such as seizing private property, printing stacks of money and seeking to dictate prices, Zimbabwe has steadily de-industrialised. Shortages are common, of everything from bread to car parts, so it was only a matter of time before electricity joined the list. The state power company, ZESA, has not paid for the power it imports, so suppliers in neighbouring countries are finally cutting off the juice.

The more optimistic Zimbabweans are wondering, however, if the increasingly frequent blackouts might have a silver lining. Zimbabwe imports 35% of its power from Mozambique, Congo and South Africa. The first two countries are much too poor to subsidise Mr Mugabe, and have responded to Zimbabwe's non-payment of its bills by reducing the amount they supply. South Africa, however, is richer, and has a president, Thabo Mbeki, who is anxious to not to precipitate chaos in Zimbabwe. So the South African state electricity firm, which supplies 15% of Zimbabwe's requirements, has so far kept on supplying, despite an unpaid bill of $115m. But what if South Africa were to use electricity as a tool to persuade Mr Mugabe to give up the other sort of power?

Mr Mbeki could probably topple Mr Mugabe with the flick of a switch, but he prefers diplomacy. Next week, with the presidents of Nigeria and Malawi, he is to pay Mr Mugabe a visit, in the hope of “encouraging dialogue” between Zimbabwe's ruling party, ZANU-PF, and the main opposition party, the Movement for Democratic Change (MDC). The MDC hopes that the visiting heads of state will discuss Mr Mugabe's retirement, and the holding of a fresh, internationally-supervised election to supersede last year's rigged one.

Mr Mbeki's spokesman denied it, telling Reuters, a news agency, that “It is not for the president of South Africa to go to another sovereign country and tell the leader to step down.” But many Zimbabweans think that something is afoot. Mr Mugabe encouraged such speculation this week with a cryptic remark on state television. He seemed to say that now that he had redistributed white-owned farm land to blacks, his work was done. His exact words were: “It was mainly the land issue actually that needed to be addressed before getting to a stage where we say fine, we have settled this matter and people can retire.” His information minister insisted, however, that Mr Mugabe had every intention of staying in office until his term expires in 2008.

The MDC says it is ready for talks with the government, although it is wary of being co-opted, as the last serious opposition movement was. Morgan Tsvangirai, the MDC leader, said he was willing to give the visiting presidents a chance to mediate, so long as they remain impartial. In the past, they have tended to side with the regime and scorn the MDC, so neither Mr Tsvangirai nor his supporters trust them.

In recent weeks, Mr Mugabe has faced increased pressure at home. A three-day strike last week brought cities to a halt. A two-day strike last month was equally avidly observed. The MDC's latest campaign of newspaper advertisements shows photographs of torture victims' gruesome injuries and the slogan “Change demands action”, which is also scrawled on township walls. But there have been no large demonstrations, because potential demonstrators fear ending up with their picture in the papers.