Econocasts

Sunday, July 19, 2015

For new readers, please note that the previous DJIA cycle model failed, so all the usual caveats apply. The previous iteration suggested slight upward pressure on the index, which has now resolved. Going forward, the model suggests increasing downward pressure on the index going into Fall, 2015. For this model on a historical basis, the absolute value of the Z-score >3 has been a good predictor of a reversal. A previous iteration of the model is shown below and here on the blog.