Is Coby Fleener a lock for TE1 production?

There’s been a lot of debate over new Saints TE Coby Fleener lately. Namely, should he be drafted inside the ten rounds of your fantasy draft? This fantasy pundit says yes.

After reading this article, you’re likely to go out and buy more Fleener stock, so consider yourself warned. Yes, it’s that good.

But before the good, we have to address the bad. Fleener’s performance with the Colts from 2012-2015 was mediocre at best. While I’m not here to debate that, he was ascending every year (before he had Matt Hasselbeck throwing him the ball) and finished as the No. 6 tight end in 2014.

Tight end is notoriously difficult to predict, because it’s typically very touchdown dependent. But with the Saints, it’s really not.

Mike Tagliere is a Lead Writer for PFF Fantasy. He's ranked as a top-six fantasy football expert twice over the last four years by FantasyPros.com. Follow @MikeTagliereNFL

aj

I guess we can predict to some extent how Payton will use Fleener based on Graham in the past, but how do we know Fleener will actually produce given the opportunity? The buzzword in fantasy has always been “talent plus opportunity”. Well, Fleener is getting his opportunity. Of course, other than Graham in 2011-2014, no Saint receiver to TE has really dominated targets, as Payton is always looking for matchup advantages, and the ball has generally been spread around. I expect Fleener will be productive in leagues with a TE position, based on the Saints O, and Fleener’s improvement as noted here, but Graham’s real value when he was healthy was that he not only was a dominant TE, he put up legitimate WR1 numbers.

Eric

In response to AJ’s question, I watched a couple of interviews with Sean Payton and he remarked how it was “okay” for Fleener to not be a dominant blocker and that he found his speed down the seam, “impressive”. He plans to use him like a WR in matchup situations. I’d bet for Fleener success rather than against. This is my 22nd year of dynasty fantasy football for what that’s worth.