Slapshot...I talked with Cos about 3 weeks ago...he stated that his treatment was going about as well as can be expected...getting ready to start 2nd round of chemo. If I hear anything...I'll let y'all know!!!

JS

Originally Posted by SlapShot27

Does anyone have any info on how Cos is doing? Hope things are improving for him.

So, SA won't publish technical stuff if I submit it so just wanted to peek in and say "hi" and mention what I am seeing here. Keep in mind I generally do not trade SIRI but I've been very good at adding at the right points... Traded the last 3 months on short term options plays though and did quite well (long calls may and june, 3/3.50 spread july)

I was going to go with another "safe" spread for August and aim for 20% or so but decided to buy out of the money calls for the first time in years.

I'm in for 1330 $3.50's, Aug 16 with a CB of about $0.0725 average after fees. Would have bought more but I couldn't get more at 6 cents today... maybe Monday I can pick up the other 670 I want.

Obviously it's an all or nothing thing.

Anyways, inverted head and shoulders since June 18th. Textbook IHS, literally. 20 day MA support on the right with a 50 with a good slope under it, 200 slow moving resistance that is just about to bottom out, and head that hit right on a 50 / 100 cross.

I see mention of cup and handle but I'm not so sure that's the pattern to look at here. Better, IMO, to look at that IHS. Projection gives $3.70 target $3.49-$3.28+$3.49 = $3.70 General resistance area too.

That said good numbers / good call could push $3.85. And I'm expecting a good call. Large number of shares retired, second buyback waiting in the wings, SIRI Canada dividend paid to SIRI (not many will be modeling this in, IMO), good auto sales, improving economy, etc.

Whisper quiet moving into this call. No run up. I much prefer to see this as run ups end in disappointment 90% of the time. Surprise to the upside always better than meeting high expectations and way better than coming in under expectations.

So I have my long position in calls happily sitting there, but I've put a trade into an all or nothing bet on the August 16th $3.50's at about 7 cents.

I'm not nervous about this one at all. Maybe that in and of itself should give me caution?

Only scary thing I see is an INVERTED cup and handle, from last year $3 until this year $3 upside down cup then slow burn up to $3.49 handle... in a sense, 50 day has to hold or, IMHO, this gets pretty damn bad... $2.40 or so.

As one more bit of confidence... I offered this up to Facebook which I just keep as friends and family. Extremely rare I do that for obvious reasons.

Also saving grace on the inverted cup and handle is that handle is a low and slow grind... atypical... usually it is much faster if it's a true C/H like 2011 / 2012 $2.40 / $1.27 / $2.40 / $1.87 (or so). I'd say potential C/H comes out of this from last year $4.18 / $2.98 / future $4.18 area. That'll be the point to watch for it to pull back... so many people wait for recent highs to sell... just because "it's where it was." Just watch the 50

Where are all the $4, $5, $6 targets now. Was everyone told to quit talking about Siri ?

I can still see $5 *Area* by Jan op ex, though it has to continue through $4 with momentum and not pull back / drag. That means a good Q2, 3, and something exciting between Q3 release and Jan op ex.

Good Q2 move eventually to previous highs. Good Q3 up we go ... So-So Q3 it drags down ... bad Q3 I don't freakin' know. Too far out to speculate.

Also for what it is worth SIRI generally reaches max 50 cents over / under the 50 day in trends. Equates to max movement of the 50 day of a penny a day and in uptrends it moves between a half cent a day and a penny a day.

Current trend maintained is $4.00 or so January for the 50 day +$0.55, max trend +$1.30 or so or $4.75? Rough calculations. That's target for 50 day moving average, not price target specifically. If it's still in uptrend add about 15 to 20 cents for a target point.