HOUSING STARTS CRUSH EXPECTATIONS, SURGING 12.1%http://www.businessinsider.com/housing-starts-and-building-permits-december-2013-1/comments
en-usWed, 31 Dec 1969 19:00:00 -0500Fri, 09 Dec 2016 10:53:13 -0500Matthew Boesler and Sam Rohttp://www.businessinsider.com/c/50f80fda6bb3f7e67e000009Homer SimpsonThu, 17 Jan 2013 09:51:06 -0500http://www.businessinsider.com/c/50f80fda6bb3f7e67e000009
So... if "housing recovery" means a return to previously inflated prices, how is an increase to housing supply going to further bolster house prices?
To me, it seems as if a sudden influx of new inventory will depress prices further. If home prices fall wouldn't that be opposite of the "housing recovery" narrative? ... Especially if homeowners may be contemplating a sale, but are waiting for prices to rise, they may decide to sell quickly if prices begin to trend downward because of the sudden inventory increase. This will further trigger a deflationary spiral. Falling prices could take marginally-positive equity situations underwater, which would trigger defaults, foreclosures and a further exacerbation of inventory.
I'd say that a robust "housing recovery" has quite a few headwinds to overcome, the fundamentals of supply and demand representing the greatest.
The jig is up. Home prices are no longer seen as infallible, constantly appreciating assets.http://www.businessinsider.com/c/50f80c9aecad04df11000007Partisan whinoThu, 17 Jan 2013 09:37:14 -0500http://www.businessinsider.com/c/50f80c9aecad04df11000007
Thanks a lot, Obama.http://www.businessinsider.com/c/50f801b1eab8ea405b000001black swanThu, 17 Jan 2013 08:50:41 -0500http://www.businessinsider.com/c/50f801b1eab8ea405b000001
We'll just have to wait and see how the newly passed Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) rules affect future home buyers.
Ben Bernanke has already come out and said, "The pendulum has swung too far the other way...overly tight lending standards may now be preventing creditworthy borrowers from buying homes."
"'One of the greatest risks we face is lenders leaving the credit markets. The impact of over regulating, uncontrolled litigation, and policy and repurchase confusion will not only affect lenders, but consumers. I've been saying for two years now that the victims of this current tight-credit environment will be first time buyers and lower to middle-income families. The wealthy will always get loans."
If even Ben can't rig the mortgage market, then going long on home building stocks might be a bit premature.