FOR DELIVERY: 9:30 A.M., E.D.T.
FRIDAY, APRIL 7, 2000
Advance copies of this statement are made available to the
press under lock-up conditions with the explicit
understanding that the data are embargoed until 8:30 a.m.
Eastern Daylight Time.
Statement of
Katharine G. Abraham
Commissioner
Bureau of Labor Statistics
Friday, April 7, 2000
Good morning. I am pleased to have this opportunity to
comment on the labor market data that we released this
morning.
The unemployment rate was unchanged in March at 4.1
percent. Nonfarm payroll employment, as measured by our
establishment survey, expanded by 416,000 over the month, but
there are several special factors that must be taken into
consideration when interpreting this large increase:
- March job growth included an estimated 117,000 temporary
workers hired by the Federal government to help conduct the
census.
- It also is likely that part of the large March gain in
nonfarm employment resulted from a calendar anomaly. This
year, there were 5 weeks between the February and March
survey reference periods instead of the usual 4 weeks. The
last time this happened was 28 years ago, in 1972, and the
next time it will happen is 2028. (A 5-week interval occurs
only in leap years when the March reference week is the
latest possible--the 12th of the month through the 18th.) As
a result of this calendar effect, we likely picked up extra
job growth in March that more typically would be counted in
April. Although we seasonally adjust these data and have had
procedures in place since 1996 to account for whether there
are 4 or 5 weeks between surveys, the rarity of a 5-week
period between the February and March surveys precludes such
an adjustment for March. We would expect the effect of an
extra week on this month’s employment growth to be in the
range of 50,000 to 100,000, but it is impossible to quantify
the effect precisely.
- Part of the March increase reflects the return to work
of some 15,000 workers in aircraft manufacturing who had been
on strike (and therefore off payrolls) in February.
Taking all of this into account, the increase in nonfarm
payroll employment in March is probably roughly in line with
the average monthly gain for 1999.
Moving on to some of the industry employment
developments in March, mining employment rose by 4,000 over
the month, as oil and gas extraction continued its recent
upward trend. In construction, employment rose by 89,000 in
March, although this large gain almost certainly was
bolstered by the extra week of hiring between the February
and March surveys. It has been difficult to determine the
underlying trend in construction employment in recent months.
An exceptionally large gain in January associated with
unusually mild winter weather was followed by a small decline
in February; the large March gain likely reflects some of the
seasonal hiring that normally is picked up in April.
Manufacturing employment edged down by 5,000 in March;
this follows several months of modest improvement in factory
employment. The March decline would have been greater had it
not been for the return of 15,000 workers in the aircraft
industry who had been on strike in February. Industrial
machinery lost 6,000 jobs in March, and there were smaller
declines in several other manufacturing industries. In
contrast, fabricated metals continued its recent pattern of
job growth with a gain of 3,000. The factory workweek and
overtime hours each fell by 0.2 hour in March, to 41.6 and
4.6 hours, respectively.
In the service-producing sector of the economy, the
services industry added 150,000 jobs in March, following
little growth in February. Average monthly growth in
services for the first quarter of this year (106,000) was
slightly behind the average monthly gain for all of 1999
(121,000). Job growth in services was widespread in March.
Employment in business services rose by 48,000, and
educational services added 21,000 jobs. Sizable gains in
agricultural services (18,000) and hotels (15,000), two
industries that typically experience seasonal hiring in March
and April, must be viewed in the context of the extended
interval between the February and March surveys.
The transportation industry added 24,000 jobs in March,
mostly in trucking and air transportation. There was a gain
of 17,000 in wholesale trade employment. In contrast,
employment at the retail trade level was about unchanged in
March for the second month in a row. March employment
declines in general merchandise stores and eating and
drinking places were offset by increases in building
materials, auto dealers and service stations, and furniture
stores.
Employment in the finance industry declined slightly in
March. Mortgage banking, which has been adversely affected
by the recent rise in home mortgage rates, lost 12,000 jobs
over the month, bringing the total losses in the industry to
35,000 since last May. In contrast, job growth continued in
March in security brokerages.
Federal government employment surged by 106,000 in
March, as the long-term downward drift in Federal employment
was swamped by an estimated 117,000 temporary workers hired
to help conduct the decennial census. Local government
employment rose by 34,000 over the month.
Average weekly hours of production or nonsupervisory
workers on private nonfarm payrolls held steady at 34.5 hours
in March. Average hourly earnings of private production or
nonsupervisory workers rose by 5 cents over the month to
$13.60. Over the year, hourly earnings rose by 3.7 percent.
Turning now to the data from our survey of households,
the unemployment rate was unchanged in March at 4.1 percent,
and has been below 4.2 percent since last October. The rates
for all of the major demographic groups (adult men, adult
women, teenagers, whites, blacks, and Hispanics) showed
little or no change in March and have been fairly stable in
recent months.
Civilian employment was essentially unchanged in March
and the proportion of the working age population that was
employed, 64.7 percent, also was little changed. The number
of persons who held more than one job totaled 7.7 million in
March (not seasonally adjusted). These multiple jobholders
made up 5.7 percent of the total employed, down from 6.1
percent a year earlier.
In summary, the unemployment rate was unchanged in March
at 4.1 percent. Payroll employment rose markedly, although
job growth was elevated both by the hiring of census workers
and by the effects of a calendar quirk.
My colleagues and I now would be glad to answer your
questions.