Rangers Won Darvish Bidding Easily

The Rangers won the rights to Japanese right-hander Yu Darvish with a $51.7MM bid this week and though the Toronto Star reported yesterday that the Blue Jays weren't far behind, reports today indicate the Rangers outbid rival teams by a significant margin.

Jeff Blair said this morning on Sportsnet 590 the FAN that the Blue Jays "did not bid $50MM, as the Toronto Star is reporting. That's totally, absolutely false and inaccurate" (hat tip Drunk Jays Fans). Buster Olney of ESPN.com believes the Blue Jays were in, but not close and suggests “nobody, including Toronto, was within country miles” of the Rangers’ bid (Twitterlinks). Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com agrees that no one else was close. The Rangers easily out-bid the Blue Jays and the Yankees bid in the $15-17MM range, according to Heyman.

Darvish posted a 1.44 ERA with 10.7 K/9 and 1.4 BB/9 in 232 innings this past season and he hasn't posted an ERA above 2.00 since 2007. The Rangers have until January 18th to work out a deal with him. If the sides don't agree to a deal by next month's deadline, Darvish will stay in Japan and the Nippon Ham Fighters won't obtain any cash from the Rangers.

Leave it to the media to again post false accusations like they always do. NO ONE has a clue except AA what the Jays bid and for so-called reporters to post anything different shows their stupidity. It is all speculation on their part, with absolutely nothing to back up their claims. The only thing that is factual is the Rangers won with a bid of 51.7 million. If it was a fifty million overbid, who cares, since teams aren’t going to disclose how much they bid. Why, because greedy and ruthless agents will use that information against the teams when it comes to free agents or players that want to sign extensions.

Leave it to these clowns (I would say journalists, but everyone knows they aren’t) to stir the pot, when they have nothing else to write about. These are the same idiots that wrote for days that the Jays had the top bid and no one else was close. This is just another way to try to save their reputations, which are now zero in the eyes of fans everywhere. No one believes journalists like Blair, Gray, Olney, or Heyman if they say good morning. People will rush to the windows to see if it is or not, showing how irrelevant their opinions are now.

AA isn’t the only person to know. There are plenty of rumors around what teams bid for Dice-K. Will the general public ever “know” for sure? Probably not.

However, it’s a pretty fair assumption that the Rangers overbid by at least $15m … and probably a lot more than that. It will be very interesting if Darvish commands an $18m or so salary on top of his posting fee.Contrary to your opinion reporters (with incredibly rare exception) do NOT make up stuff. They may use bad sources. They may have bad information passed to them. There are all sorts of reasons why “rumors” may later turn out to be false. Making stuff up … that’s way down the list of reasons why reporting is later proven to be wrong.

Fair enough. Show me the books from every team in baseball and the amounts bid. If you can’t provide that and neither can any of the journalists that posted their speculation opinions, that makes everything they said “Made up” and not valid. Texas may have won with a bid that was 100,000 dollars more than the next team and since not one team in baseball will confirm or deny it, no one can say anything contrary to opinion.

That is like saying the Dodgers are paying Kemp 20 billion dollars a season, but until the actual team comes out and says 20 million, the journalists posting 20 billion will look like fools for printing garbage in the media. If a GM says something, fine, print it. If the first cousin of the friend, of the friend of the wife of an usher that formerly worked as a vendor at the stadium is the source, journalists shouldn’t post anything to deceive the public.

That is exactly what they are doing and gullible fans eat it up, with absolutely zero credibility, hence rumours – not fact. That is how this site thrives on speculation. Idiots invent things with nothing concrete to go on and fans comment on it, as if they are replying to facts. The only facts that appear come from the actual teams themselves, not from the journalists. I will agree that things do get leaked to the journalists from agents, players, etc, but those are the exceptions, not the rule.

Your first point is just wrong. If a journalist has a source in the mlb who tells the journalist what he is hearing about the bids, then that is not “made up.” It is not fully substantiated, but it is not made up (as in “out of thin air”).

Also, that is not the correct use of “valid.” Validity has to do with the inferential move between two claims. It regards logical structure.

Can you really say that they overbid by 15mm? It was a sealed bid and the Rangers bid what they thought it would take. Very easy to say after the fact and numbers are getting reported that the bid won by 15mm so they overbid. In a silent and blind auction like this the goal is to win with an amount that you feel comfortable. The Rangers were comfortable with investing almost 52mm so it is not an overbid to them.

He’s a has-been drunk who drives the whole town crazy when he whines and moans how great the Expos were, just because they would load him up with Molsons when he was on that beat. You really can tell when he is completely loaded, his column is even worse than usual, when he spews out what he believes is writing. He has something on somebody, or pays them so he can work there.
Useless.

“sources” are almost always the players’ agents or team executives. Folks like Heyman, Rosenthal, Nightengale, etc…are known to have credible sources which is why you always see the same people breaking stories. These guys aren’t just some suckers from a blog with no connections.

I agree. I think they came close, but it’s a lot easier to say, “haha stupid Rangers! No one but you thought he was worth that much!” As opposed to “sorry fans, we were only $50K away and just couldn’t do it.”

How are they trying to save face? The only thing anyone in the organization has said is Anthopoulos saying they wouldn’t comment if they bid or not, which is exactly what they did before the fans whipped themselves up into a frenzy.

The hilarious part is that Stoeten got into a big argument with a guy on the boards who was saying exactly what’s in this post. Stoeten was steadfastly believing Griffin’s nonsense even after Blair’s comments, and now he’s getting credit on MLBTR for a post saying the opposite.

“The Blue Jays’ exact bid isn’t known, but word is that Texas easily won. The Yankees’ bid is believed to have been somewehere in the range of $15-to-17 million but isn’t exactly know, either. Reports suggested the Cubs also bid, and perhaps other teams did, too. “

So Bobby Scales (Ex-Cubs, now with Nippon Ham Fighters) said that Darvish wanted to help the Fighters out, and by being posted, makes the team a lot of money. Not totally buying it, but just a thought.

Well, the Fighters couldn’t really afford to keep him and according to some things I’ve read from Japan they wanted to post him last year and had to scramble to afford him. Sapporo isn’t the biggest market for baseball in Japan (isolated from the rest of the country, relatively new team/sport to the region, more rural than much of Japan…) so it looks like a mutually beneficial situation. Typically the team and the player agree to go forward with posting. Players aren’t posted against thier will but once the process starts they have very little leverage.

The possibility that Darvish signs this offseason is 50/50 IMO. If reports are true, Darvish could have gone for a bid of 25M. Darvish is going to want 5 years/75M, at least. I think teams knew that Darvish would want that type of money, and the only way that was happening is if 25M won the bidding (100M Total Investment). I get your point, but I think this will ultimately hurt Yu Darvish.

Also, his Japanese agent, Don Nomura, is a complete loony toon. The A’s (Beane and Co.) attempted to deal with this clown last year. Get ready for some ridiculous statements coming from Japan via Twitter Account – link to twitter.com – They are saying all the right things right now, but a statement like“The Rangers are an extraordinary franchise in an exceptional city with equally exceptional fans. Yu is honored to be prized so highly and recognized as a once-in-a-generation pitcher. We look forward to getting negotiations under way,”… This is gonna get ugly.

So we fix the posting system this way:
The high bidder gets a 20 day exclusive negotiating window, but if they cant reach an agreement, the next highest bidding team gets to join and the two teams get to go head to head in signing the player.

In the event that the 2nd highest bidding team is already set for the offseason, they may allow the 3rd highest bidding team negotiate with the player with the stipulation that the 3rd team would pay a 5% “passing the baton” fee if the player signs. This fee would be 5% of the 3rd team’s posting bid.

This would allow for a higher likelihood of a player signing, and the NPB team would be given the 3 highest bids for consideration.

I can see some merits in what you are saying but also some holes that I doubt the Japanese league would agree with. First, most players usually sign so the Japanese team gets the high bid amount. Last year with Oakland was the anomaly. So take this year for instance and these numbers for sake of this argument and that these are the 1-3 high bidders. Texas – 52mm, Tor – 40mm, and NYY – 20mm. So Texas doesn’t get it done in the 20 days and now Toronto gets on the clock. Tor decides to pass so now NYY has the rights and gets a deal done. Suddenly Nippon Ham is getting 20mm instead of 52? They accepted the winning bid of 52 and now that is getting cut by 62%. No way they accept that anymore.

You would also now get teams bidding unrealistic amounts just to try to keep other teams out of it. So Tampa doesn’t want Darvish coming to the East so they submit a bid of 75mm just so they are first on the books. It now gets passed down to Texas who signs him because they will not pass the baton as you say.

As I said, I see some merits and agree that something needs to change but I don’t think your initial idea is the answer. Also, Japan has to agree and right now they make a lot of money for their teams with the current posting system.

Your idea of bidding to block is ridiculous just because the system currently allows for that ENTIRELY.

If the Rangers and Toronto had bid 30M and 25M respectively, do you think Nippon Ham would have said “no”? The point was that the NPB team would be given the top 3 bids and be given the opportunity to decide if the lowest $$ would be acceptable, knowing that they very well could be stuck with that figure well before… no bait and switch here.

But the system is also set that the person with the commodity (Japanese baseball team) gets to sell their commodity to the highest bidder, in essence a free market. This is not free agency for this player. It is a trade of sorts very similar to any trade that happens in MLB with players under team control but the currency is prospects and not the cold hard cash Japan seeks. Gio Gonzalez has no choice on who he gets traded to right now just like Darvish has no choice as to who gets his rights. If the system you proposed, I did say it does have merit, you have good points, were to be instilled then it is basically a controlled free agency. If I was the GM for the 2nd or third team I would get to pay less to the Japanese team and would be leaking in the media who much money I was gonna pay this guy. The first team would never win and never sign the guy in the first 20 days as the player would want that competition for his services so he could make more money. Now you have a free agent battle between two clubs for a guy who has not yet earned that right to free agency, even though he will be paid by the winning club like he is a free agent.

People have often said that they need an international draft but the Japanese leagues will never agree to this because they will not make the huge amounts for the players they control and that would keep players like Darvish in Japan for another 2 years (I think).

It was also a closed bid. You have no idea what somebody else is bidding. They put forth a budget and went after it with what they felt they were comfortable with. If they had bid 10mm less and lost knowing they were comfortable going to 52mm then they would be pissed.

I doubt it’s true. Reports I saw said Darvish would be insulted if the winning bid was less than Dice-K. So if teams were serious on Darvish (which Toronto definitely seemed to be) then they would’ve bid at least in the 45 mill range.

I don’t blame Rogers or AA for my disappointment, I blame the media for always trying to make a story out of nothing (I do understand it’s their job) when the Jays GM is as close-lipped as you can find. But I have never seen so many reports and reporters flip-flop in the past week than I have with this whole story.

This is all unsubstantiated. People are just reporting that they think the Jays weren’t close, but nobody from the Jays have released anything yet, so they might have bid $51.6MM, they might have bid $25MM, they might not have bid at all.

None of this matters. The only people who should be concerned with their Yu Darvish bid is the Texas brass who now have to ensure he signs a contract.

Alex Anthopolous bid what he felt Darvish was worth, whether it was 51.6 million or 35 million it doesn’t matter because it wasn’t the 1st place bid.

Everyone who’s been involved in this whole process, from the various bloggers and reporters suggesting the jays won, to those who thought they broke the story before everyone else should all be ashamed. Hopefully Jays fans remember this and choose their media outlets more carefully, if you are going to read blair, griffin, or the rest of these joke bloggers, you are just asking to be misinformed by ‘their sources’ that are never named.

Griffin has to be among the worst, for being the baseball writer for an alleged major Toronto paper. No direction in his analysis, just writes whatever the wind blows — reminiscing Expos stories is all he’s good for.

MLB is completely missing a great opp to create off-season excitement in their sport in holding the auction result behind closed doors. Imagine what kind of bang they could have made if they had held the unveiling like the NBA/NHL draft, or even the lottery of the draft? I suspect they’d need to get the Japan side on side with it, but the years where there was a big star available, it would create such incredible buzz… The way teams are kept hidden and their bids unknown also gives some concern about manipulation — Not to say the ‘behind-the-curtain’ manner they do things now creates anything more than suspicion, but the way its operated now just leaves too many questions.
If all Japan/international players were posted for the same day, the event could be an incredible showcase globally. Teams would also have to take stock on which players they truly want — I think Aori was a huge steal and the Mariners, Cardinals and Tigers specifically missed a great chance at finding a perfect leadoff/complementary hitter for their lineup at a reasonable rate.

The problem is you would never get Japan on Board with this. Take the pitcher the A’s tried to get last year. They bid 18mm and the next team bid 2 (I am taking this from what somebody posted earlier so I may be wrong). Now you go into a live bidding process and maybe the 2mm team goes a bit higher to 4mm or so but I highly doubt they get to 18mm. Japan loses. Same with Darvish this year. Let’s say that Toronto’s high bid and absolute ceiling was 45mm so now the Rangers only have to go to 46mm or so. Once again, Japan loses. Would have happened with Dice-K, Ichiro, and so on. Great for MLB, bad for Japan.

I don’t know if Japan would be the problem under your interpretation of my suggestion – that Japan team never saw the 18m because it was in effect a block move. However, someone like Aoika this year would not have gone so cheaply. Plus you have the fever-pitch of the moment, when other teams tend to get caught up.
However, I agree that a ‘live auction’ would not work. My suggestion was just to have the ‘reveal’ telecasted, complete with naming teams who placed bids (this would work great in a year where the international players up for ‘sale’ were like this year’s fairly attractive) on the podium. You’d fill the program with interviews, short bios, film clips of them playing etc. There would be no more ‘super secrecy’ amongst bidders, which may or may not alter people’s bidding habits; however, teams would then be honest with their fanbase on whether or not they had serious interest in these players. In cases where many teams placed a bid, you’d reduce it to a ‘Final 3’ for dramatic purposes. If there is to be no international draft this would seem to be the way to go and create international interest at the same time.

It is hard to take any of this seriously when many of these guys were running with “sources” that said TOR won the Darvish bidding all last year and were also floating the $50M figure as the posting fee. More than anything else, this screams to me that nobody really knows and know people are just out to try and protect their sources.

I wonder how long it will be until teams use the posting system to block other teams from acquiring players. If the Angels wanted to make sure the Rangers didn’t get Darvish, they could have posted a $75 million fee, with no intention of negotiating a contract with Darvish. Then they get their $75 million back, and Darvish is blocked from playing in MLB this year.

Player’s union would flip if that happened and file all sorts of lawsuits and appeals. I am sure there is language about just this in the collective bargaining to keep it from happening. I will dig around and see if I can find something regarding that.

I think the key would be that to place a bid, the eventual winning team must pay a minimum amount — 10 % of the bid — to the Japanese team, whether the player is signed or not. Oakland’s bid last year was possibly a block bid, much higher than any other. The negotiation for contract seemed like a quick circus. I think if there was a service fee that became guaranteed in the bidding process, MLB teams would then bid more sanely and Japanese teams would be more willing to post their better players earlier.