Disclaimer:
This Blog,its owner,creator & contributor is neither a research analyst nor an Investment Advisor and expressing opinion only as an Investor in Indian equities.He/She is not responsible for any loss arising out of any information,post or opinion appearing on this blog.Investors are advised to do own due diligence and/or consult financial consultant before acting on any such information.Author of this blog not providing any paid service and not sending bulk mails/SMS to anyone.

Thursday, July 31, 2014

This stock recommended earlier @ Rs.12 declared its result today . More than the published result ,company decided to write off an amount of Rs.16 Cr on account of expired goods due to termination of its joint venture with Simplot . ( Read the details of Board decision HERE ) .Frankly speaking , quantum of this amount is beyond my expectation . Stock is currently trading around Rs 15.80 .Recommending to book Profit /Loss and considering this factor, a re-entry may consider only at a lower level .

Tuesday, July 29, 2014

This stock earlier recommended @ Rs.50, which hits its life time high today @ Rs.138 .Now company reported its June quarter numbers where the top line is Rs.119 Cr and bottom line is Rs.30 Cr . Company reported a quarterly EPS of Rs.19 in Q1 of 2014-15 against Rs.14 for the same period of last year.Still recommending to HOLD it for long term.

Saturday, July 26, 2014

As I mentioned last week , new stock suggestions will be posted only on First and Third Saturday's of every month .Meanwhile , in recent times receiving lot of mails from new entrants in stock market who are still confused about many basic terms and words using here.The below posting is only for such newbies and most of them even may cut and paste from various sources ,but I think it is helpful for them.

Investing and trading are two very different methods of attempting
to profit in the financial markets. The goal of investing is to
gradually build wealth over an extended period of time through the buying and holding
of a portfolio of stocks, baskets of stocks, mutual funds, bonds and
other investment instruments. Investors often enhance their profits
through compounding ,
or reinvesting any profits and dividends into additional shares of
stock. Investments are often held for a period of years, or even
decades, taking advantage of perks like interest, dividends and stock splits
along the way. While markets inevitably fluctuate, investors will "ride
out" the downtrends with the expectation that prices will rebound and
any losses will eventually be recovered. Investors are typically more
concerned with market fundamentals, such as Price Earning Ratios( P/E) and management forecasts.

Trading, on the other hand, involves the more frequent buying and selling of stock, commodities, or other instruments, with the goal of generating returns that
outperform buy-and-hold investing. While investors may be content with a
10 to 15% annual return, traders might seek a 10% return each month.
Trading profits are generated through buying at a lower price and
selling at a higher price within a relatively short period of time. The
reverse is also true: trading profits are made by selling at a higher
price and buying to cover at a lower price (known as "Selling Short")
to profit in falling markets. Where buy-and-hold investors wait out
less profitable positions, traders must make profits (or take losses)
within a specified period of time, and often use a protective stop loss
order to automatically close out losing positions at a predetermined
price level. Traders often employ technical analysis tools, such as moving averages and stochastic oscillators, to find high-probability trading setups.

A trader's "style" refers to the time frame or holding period in
which stocks, commodities or other trading instruments are bought and
sold. Traders generally fall into one of four categories:

Position Trader – positions are held from months to years

Swing Trader – positions are held from days to weeks

Day Trader – positions are held throughout the day only with no overnight positions

Scalp Trader – positions are held for seconds to minutes with no overnight positions

Traders
often choose their trading style based on factors including: account
size, amount of time that can be dedicated to trading, level of trading
experience, personality and risk tolerance. Both investors and traders
seek profits through market participation. In general, investors seek
larger returns over an extended period through buying and holding.
Traders, by contrast, take advantage of both rising and falling markets
to enter and exit positions over a shorter time frame, taking smaller,
more frequent profits.

Thursday, July 24, 2014

APAR INDUSTRIES This stock recommended @ Rs.145 which hits its 52 week high today @ Rs.402 .Yesterday ,HDFC Mutual Fund bought 4 lakhs shares of this company at an average price of Rs.365.Recommendation LinkHERE

CENTUM ELECTRONICS recommended @ Rs.88 currently trading around its life time high of Rs.412 .On 22/07/2014 ,HDFC Mutual Fund bought 3.71 lakhs shares of this company at an average price of Rs.360.Still recommending to HOLD itRecommendation LinkHERE

Tuesday, July 22, 2014

CAPLIN POINT LABORATORIES - This pharma stock recommended about 6 months back @ Rs.86 which hits its lifetime high today @ Rs.339 and closed in upper circuit.Stock already turned as a 4 bagger during this short period .Those with some risk appetite can still HOLD it .

Saturday, July 19, 2014

In the past 4 years ,through this blog I suggested more than 250 companies from small and midcap space.Since the number of IPO's are very small and due to recessionary situation during this period ,number of quality companies eligible to suggest is limited now. Hence from now onwards , new stocks will be suggested only on first and third Saturday's ( only 2 stocks in a month). Updates will be done on already recommended stocks as and when necessary. Received lot of mails in my new mail id but replies may be delayed to some per-occupation.--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

In the past I recommended many pharma stocks like Caplin Point Lab,SMS Pharma,Granules India,Biocon..etc. KOPRAN LTD itself is one one of my old recommendations @ Rs.27 (HERE) .Now this stock is trading around Rs.42 .Considering the bright prospects and increasing interest of management ,repeating this stock again.Once this Parijat Group company was among the largest manufacturer of Amoxycillin and share price was at par with today's biggies like Dr.Reddy's Lab ..etc . But due to some change in business environment including cheap Chinese import of Company's product , some mismanagement and their inability to cope with changed business scenario ,this stock came down drastically from a price level of Rs.830 in 1994 to single digit in Rs.2008.After a long gap, now the management seems taking active steps to revive the company .From March 2013 to March 2014 ,promoters hiked their stake by 5 % ( The maximum permissible limit through creeping acquisition route in a Financial year). Company recently recruited lot of people to strengthen its marketing channels .One notable point is its receipt of approval from UKMHRA for its Khapoli facility which produces Finished Dosages.This is one important trigger and company is expected to start gaining business from the next quarter of this Financial Year. Apart from Pharma , company planning to launch few FMCG products too ( Details available in Company Website HERE).In financial side,Kopran reporting steady improvement in past few years .I hope this will accelerate going forward once the export to UK and EU starts in near future.

Click on the image for a better viewIn addition to this ,Kopran is now taking efforts to concentrate in high margin segments like Oncology ..etc I hope ,company's new efforts will pay off and still there is room for substantial appreciation going forward.Suggesting this stocks for investors with enough patience which is currently trading around Rs.42 .Stock listed in both exchanges .Disc: It is safe to assume that I have vested interest in all stocks I am suggesting .

Friday, July 18, 2014

PLEASE NOTE THAT MY PREVIOUS EMAIL ID ( valuepick@rediffmail.com) HAS CHANGED to valuepick100@gmail.com .PLEASE DO NOT SEND ANY EMAILS TO MY OLD ID AND I AM IN NO WAY RESPONSIBLE TO ANY SUGGESTIONS/INSTRUCTIONS RECEIVED FROM MY OLD ID.

Thursday, July 17, 2014

PERSISTENT SYSTEMSrecommended @ Rs.430 ,hits its life time high today @ Rs.1344 .Those with below average risk appetite may sell 35% of your holdings to make the remaining cost free . Others can still HOLD it for long term Link to Original recommendation HERE

Saturday, July 12, 2014

If we prepare an industry wise list of listed companies ,no
doubt Financial Service Sector will be at the top by number .At the same time if the list
is based on quality of promoters the same sector will be always at the
bottom.Lot of bogus paper companies without any business operations are listed
in our stock exchanges especially in BSE from this sector.So selecting a
quality company from this sector warrant a close screening of its promoters
integrity,executives qualityand the
standard and professionalismof its
governing board etc ...

So far I recommended very rarely from this sector and
the onlyrecommended stock from money
lending business ( excluding housing finance) – Cholamandalam Finance – already turned as a five bagger (
Recommended @ Rs.82 , touched a high of Rs.445 and currently trading @ Rs.405 Rec. Link HERE) . After a long gap ,recommending one
stock from this sector which I believe as a stock with immense potential and
led by quality management by all means .

Capital First limited – ( formerly known as Future capital
Holdings) came out with an IPO in 2008 and allotted shares at a price of Rs.765
per share.This company was originally promoted by Future group of Biyani’s
.Later future group had lot of debt related issues mainly in their flagship –
Pantaloon retail business.Due to this ,future group decided to exit from this
company and same acquired by US based private equity investment firm Warburg Pincus.Since thiscompany’s
business is simple and similar in line with other NBFC’s , I don’t think much
explanation is needed about its business side .Why this company is special to
me and what distinguishing it from other companies from thesame sector is –the people behind it.Before
looking into this important factor ,just
few lines about its business. Company is an NBFC offering personal loan,Loan
for consumer durables,gold loan,two wheeler loan,loan against property and
distributing various insurance products.CAPF is present in 40 cities through
its 164 branches . As on 31 March 2014 , assets under management (AUM) of
company increased toRs.97 billion from
Rs. 75.10 billion compared with just previous year and capital adequacy
ratiois healthy at 24 %. Due to
management’s prudent decision to concentrate in retail lending , its gross NPA
is just 0.45 %and net NPA is only 0.08
% .This is one of the best among any listed NBFC’s. CAPF recently received license to start housing finance business through its subsidiary Capital First
Home Finance Private Limited and it is expected to contribute from this year
itself .

The real
Differentiators

As I mentioned at the beginning itself , while selecting a stock from
NBFC sector for investment purpose there is lot of options in this space.But if
we look in detail ,many of them are only for name sake and quality wise very
few companies deserves a serious look .Quality of people behind any company
will surely reflect in quality of business.So let us look behind the curtain to
get an idea about the people behind it .

First of all , For a business like NBFC , promoters ability to infuse
funds is core point for business growth . CAPF is currently owned by one of world’s largest and most reputed US based private equity investment firm
Warburg Pincus through its affiliate Cloverdell Investment Ltd. Warburg
Pincus’ AUM is about $48 billion and invested in more than700 companies in 35 countries.I think ,with
sucha strong hand behind it , fund
raising for expansion is not at all an issue for CAPF. Promoters currently
holding about 72 % stake in CAPF . In addition to this ,recently HDFC Standard
Life Insurance Company Ltd infused Rs.50 Cr by subscribing a 4% stake in this
company.

In a business concentrating in financing retail clents ,
experience and expertise of leader is another important factor.MD of CAPF Mr V.
Vaidyanathan is the best choice for this position.Mr .Vaidyanathan need no introduction to banking and finance circles in India
.He started his career with Citibank India Consumer Banking Division in 1990
and worked there till 2000 .Later he moved to ICICI Bank and appointed as
Executive Director on the Board of ICICI Bank at the age of 38. He was also the
Chairman of ICICI Home Finance Co. Ltd., and served on the Board of ICICI
Lombard General Insurance Company and CIBIL.During his tenure with ICICI Bank
he played key role in Senior Management responsible for transition of ICICI
from a Domestic Financial Institution to a Universal Bank. He launched the
Retail Banking Business for ICICI , and transformed itinto a large retail bankin the country. He also built the SME
business and Rural Banking Business for ICICI Bank.During his tenure ICICI received
many awards including "Best Retail bank in Asia 2001",
"Excellence in Retail Banking Award" 2002, "Best Retail Bank in
India 2003, 2004, and 2005 from the Asian Banker", "Most Innovative
Bank" 2007, and was nominated "Retail Banker of the Year" by EFMA
Europe for 2008 and 2009. Whoever take the credit ,I believe ,Vaidyanathan is the master brain who make ICICI bank as one of the top retail bank in the country . From May 2009 to August 2010 he served as the Chief Executive Officer and Managing Director of ICICI Prudential Life Insurance Company.The then promoter of CAPF Mr,Kishore Biyani brought Vaidyanathan into CAPF in 2010 .Leadership of such an experienced retail banker is one of the biggest asset of CAPF .

After some difficult period under the Future group ,CAPF is now moving
to the high growth path .Company reported an income from operations of Rs.1067
Cr and a net profit of Rs.53 Cr in FY 2014.In a recent interview MD of the
company mentioned that the company's profit will expand substantially in FY 2015
compared with what it achieved in FY 2014. . In nut
shell – there is everything in this company to emerge as one of the most successful
NBFC in future and Capital First is my
top pick and a must buy from NBFC sector for any small/mid cap portfolio.Stock is listed in both exchanges and trading around Rs.204.

Saturday, July 5, 2014

Many of my readers may be
aware about the unfortunate incidents happened in once famous ‘ Financial
Technologies Ltd ‘ and to its promoter .If we look back ,the success of
this company in the past was mainly due to its cutting edge
offerings in Risk management,Exchange management and various solutions for
broking related business.At a time ,this company is going through a rough
patch, let us look into another small and unknown company which slowly showing
improved business in the same space.Dion Global Solutions is a company owned by
the former promoters of one of India’s largest pharma firm Ranbaxy.Dion Global is
a leading provider of software for Banking ,Financial Service and Insurance
(BFSI) sector and also providing research and information services to financial
institutions, media and publication entities.Company offering various products
to verticals like Trading and settlement,Risk
Management,Research,compliance..etc . Commercial Banks,Stock Broking
firms,Insurance companies,Finance companies,stock exchanges,Depositories and
custodians,Asset management companies and hedge funds ..etc are the target
customers of Dion.

At
present company’s presence in India is limited but it is gaining ground
overseas .Through its various subsidiaries and associate companies Dion
operating in more than 60 countries across the globe.As part of its expansion
strategy company acquired strategic stakes in many foreign companies .In 2010
Dion took 44 % stake in the holding company of Chase Cooper ,a leading London
based provider of technology and solutions for BFSI segment with presence
in more than 85 countries.In 2011 Company acquired UK based Investmaster group
which is also in the same line of business. In 2012 ,Company acquired Germany
based Swissrisk Financial Systems.After
the Lehman crisis financial institutions,especially large overseas banks and
financial institutions taking every steps to ensure better fraud management and
stringent verifications and validation processes.In additions to this ,all
internationals banks should comply with Basel III norms by 31 December 2018 and
all Indian Banks by 31 March 2018.This will offer good opportunities for
companies like Dion which specialising in Risk Management field.Last year company introduced
FATCATRAC - a software solution to assist Financial Institutions in meeting the
US Foreign Account Tax Compliance Act which is getting overwhelming response
from overseas private banks.

The Tech Mahindra Link

Spotting the capabilities of
Dion and opportunities ahead,One of India’s largest Software firm Tech Mahindra
took a 16 % stake in Dion in last Financial year by subscribing shares
worth Rs.35 Cr. This strategic partnership is expected to bring good results
going forward . Mr. C P Gurnani, CEO and MD of Tech Mahindra stated
about this acquisition as “We are extremely
impressed by Dion’s products and solutions , its ability to truly partner
with its clients, and most of all, its top-class management team. We are
convinced that in time to come, Dion will become one of the foremost software
solutions providers to capital markets globally and are keen on participating
in Dion’s promising future.”

After few years of slump, Global
financial industry is looking up now .Dion is now taking various efforts to tap
the emerging opportunities and taking business as serious . At a time its close
rival Financial Technologies is facing multiple issues Dion is now actively
planning to tap local market too . In this effort ,financial and technical
support from a company like Tech Mahindra will be an added advantage for Dion
.Last week company empaneled with BSE for providing IML
(Intermediate Message Layer ) Based
trading services to BSE trading members in the Currency Derivatives
Segment .BSE circular Link HERE

Read Dion's recent
order winsHEREFinancials
and ConclusionOn a consolidated basis
,company’s top line spurted from Rs.90 Cr in 2010 to Rs.223 Cr in 2014 . Its
bottom line is still in loss on an yearly basis .In last financial year , to write of its entire
accumulated loss Dion reduced its equity capital by half .Promoters are holding
53 % stake and other FI’s and Tech Mahindra together holding another 34 %
stake. Because of low floating stock ,liquidity is low in this counter.If you
are a risk averse investor and considering conventional valuation
parameters for investment decisions ,it is not a stock for you .I believe, due
to various reasons ,company is at an inflection point and the better days are
just coming.But it is a long term story and a stock only for those with enough
patience.Remember ,this is not a 'valuepick' but a stock suggestion based on the anticipated future growth of company .Dion is listed only in BSE and currently trading around Rs.66