000
FXUS63 KABR 031011
AFDABR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
411 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 408 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015
THINGS ARE EVOLVING VERY CLOSE TO FORECAST AND DID NOT MAKE
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. ONLY CHANGES WERE TO CANCEL
THE VERY NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE WINTER WX ADVISORY ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL SD AND MAKE IT INTO A WIND ADVISORY INSTEAD. ALSO MOVED UP
START TIME OF EASTERN CWA HEADLINES TO RIGHT NOW AS LIGHT TO
MODERATE SNOW HAS BEGUN FALLING. STRONG WINDS ARE AFFECTING
CENTRAL SD WITH THESE WINDS KNOCKING AT THE DOOR OF THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY. THEY WILL REACH THE I-29 CORRIDOR AROUND 12Z OR 13Z.
AS FOR SNOWFALL...THE BAND OF HEAVIEST SNOW IS CURRENTLY OVER THE
EASTERN CWA. STILL EXPECTING A BAND OF 2 TO 4 INCHES FROM AROUND
THE PIERRE AREA UP THROUGH THE EASTERN CWA AND INTO WEST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA. GIVEN THE STRONGER NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING UP
TO 45 MPH LATER THIS MORNING...STILL EXPECTING BLIZZARD CONDITIONS
AT TIMES SO WILL GO AHEAD AND CONTINUE THE BLIZZARD WARNINGS.
ALTHOUGH...HEAVIEST SNOWFALL WILL NOT COINCIDE WITH STRONGEST
WINDS SO WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE JUST HOW LOW AND WIDESPREAD
VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS WILL BE. STILL EXPECT IMPACTS THOUGH FROM
THE FRESHLY FALLEN SNOW BEING BLOWN AROUND.
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL REMAIN STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL FOR MOST
AREAS AS COLDER AIR CONTINUES TO POUR IN BEHIND THE PASSING COLD
FRONT. ACTUAL AIR TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
BELOW ZERO TONIGHT AS A NORTHWEST WIND REMAINS. WIND CHILL VALUES
ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO FALL TO 25 BELOW TO 30 BELOW ZERO FOR A
GOOD PORTION OF THE CWA. WILL HAVE TO EXPLORE POSSIBILITY FOR A
WIND CHILL ADVISORY OVERNIGHT. ARCTIC AIR REMAINS IN PLACE
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT LIKELY
IN THE TEENS BELOW ZERO FOR THE EASTERN CWA. MODERATING TEMPS
BEGIN ON THURSDAY...WHICH WILL THEN PERSIST INTO THE EXTENDED
PERIOD.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015
NORTHWEST MID LEVEL FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
LONG TERM. THIS SHOULD SPELL A MOSTLY DRY PATTERN. HOWEVER...THAT
SAID...BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF DO HAVE A FAIRLY HEALTHY WAVE COMING
THROUGH FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLEPOPS REMAIN LOW...BUT THIS FEATURE WILL BEAR WATCHING. FOR NOW
WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST. MEANWHILE...A RELATIVELY MILD AIR
MASS WILL BE IN PLACE DURING MOST OF THE PERIOD...SUPPORTING NEAR
TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015
A STRONG AND FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH ALONG
WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING IN...WILL BRING SNOW TO ALL TERMINALS
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THE SNOW WILL SPREAD FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. EXPECT THE LOWEST
VISIBILITIES/HEAVIEST SNOW FROM PIR TO ATY. ALONG WITH THE SNOW
WILL COME STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO
35 TO 40 KNOTS BRINGING VISIBILITIES DOWN TO A QUARTER MILE OR LESS
AT TIMES. MBG SHOULD ESCAPE MUCH OF THE WORST CONDITIONS. THE SYSTEM
WILL QUICKLY MOVE EAST LATE TUESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON TAKING
THE SNOW WITH IT. ALTHOUGH...BLOWING SNOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS REMAIN.
&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST /11 AM MST/ TODAY FOR SDZ009-
015-016.
BLIZZARDWARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR SDZ007-008-011-
018>023.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST /11 AM MST/ TODAY FOR SDZ003>005.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR SDZ006-010-
017.
BLIZZARDWARNING UNTIL NOON CST /11 AM MST/ TODAY FOR SDZ033>037-
045-048-051.
MN...BLIZZARDWARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR MNZ039-046.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...MOHR