Morning Brief – April 19, 2011

About Harper’s future — An urgent message from Raffi — Fanning flames in Quebec — New numbers from EKOS — Hard news, short skirts — Layton in prime-time — Rumblings on the left coast — The state of health care in Alberta.

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Good Tuesday morning to you.

So where were we? Two weeks to go, but really just nine or so “actual” campaign days, or approximately 130 or so “real” hours.

Could there be a better time to start speculating about Stephen Harper’s future? (For the record, we think yes.) That’s what analyst Michael Taube was up to in a recent edition of the Ottawa Citizen.“There is no Conservative on the inside, or small-c conservative on the outside, who has the ability to take out Harper,” he wrote. Consider the options:

Peter MacKay: “Please,” says the former Harper speechwriter.

Jim Prentice: “Highly unlikely.”

Bernard Lord: “Too many negatives.”

So what does it all mean? Nothing, as it turns out. Taube concludes: “Harper is in total command of his political destiny.”

So if it’s too early for premature speculation, how about a sing-song? Perhaps inspired by the vote mobs, Tweetups and etc. of the 2011 season, Raffi, a.k.a. Mr. Bananaphone, has recorded an urgent appeal to Beluga Grads. (If you have to ask, you’re probably not one.) “On May 2 we have a really important election,” Raffi says from his kitchen via YouTube. “Come out and vote.” Only why speak, when you can hum? “Grown up beluga, grown up beluga,” Raffi sings. “Come and rock the boat. Please get out and vote.” Still not feeling it? Or, worse, want more? Go here … around the 50-second mark.

You can’t blame us for trying to lighten the mood what with all the renewed fretting over sovereignty. And since Harper has suggested a strong national Conservative majority is the best weapon against separatists, theNational Post has picked up his cause. “The last thing we need is a minority government, headed by either Stephen Harper or Michael Ignatieff, that survives at the pleasure of Gilles Duceppe’s Bloc Québécois,” the editorial board said. NDP Leader Jack Layton — high on a surge — accuses his rivals of “fuelling the flames of discord.” Observers tell iPolitics.ca’s Kathleen Harris they truly wish the issue had been left to the backburner so leaders could address “real problems” such as health care, maybe?

If the Harper government’s claims of strong economic stewardship are to be tested, it might come from this morning’s release of inflation figures by Statistics Canada. At the same time, leading indicators and wholesale trade numbers will also be released.

It is true that new EKOS polling in Quebec shows the NDP steadily gaining. It’s now in second place in the province at 25.4 per cent support, only 6.5 percentage points behind the Bloc Québécois. The Conservatives were at 19.5 per cent and the Liberals trailed at 16.5 per cent. Senior writer Elizabeth Thompson talked to Thomas Mulcair, the party’s Quebec lieutenant, about what it’s like to be on the ground in the province right now.

Follow the Leaders:

CONSERVATIVES — Harper starts his day in Thunder Bay, then moves on to Val D’or, Quebec.

LIBERALS — Ignatieff opens his day in Winnipeg, then heads to Toronto for an interview with Peter Mansbridge at 3PM. He then has two evening events in Brampton.

NEW DEMOCRATS — Layton returns to Ontario today, with events in Toronto in the morning and then moving on to Welland.

BLOC QUEBECOIS — Gilles Duceppe campaigns in and around Montreal.

GREEN PARTY — Elizabeth May campaigns in Calgary.

In case you missed it, Sun News launched yesterday afternoon with a half-hour “pregame show” — filled with football analogies, short skirts and shorter skirts. At one point, viewers were treated to the profound revelation from one Sun personality that “people in the West think different than people in Toronto and Ottawa.”

At 5 p.m. ET, the switch was thrown and the network unveiled its daily lineup of “Straight Talk” hosts, led by Charles Adler. There was surprisingly little talk about the federal election. Instead, Ezra Levant — described by another Sun host as the network’s “godfather” — segued from a two-week-old story about the CRTC to a five-year-old story about Danish cartoons, all while standing at a lectern and musing about how long it would be before the “censors” came knocking down his door. They never came, which seemed to disappoint him.

Speaking of prime-time viewing, Question No. 1 in Peter Mansbridge’s interview with NDP leader Jack Layton? “Who gave you the “hashtag fail” line? Answer? While Layton confessed it was not his own, he would like it know that he totally knew what it meant.

Layton also talked to Mansbridge about coalition discussions in 2004 and accused Harper of “fabricating things.” “We were called together by Stephen Harper to send a letter to the governor general to make it clear that if Paul Martin was defeated by the speech from the throne, she should turn to the other parties to govern,” he said. “There was no question about it that the ultimate goal here was for Stephen Harper to become prime minister.”

Out on the left coast, provincial election rumblings will have to take a backseat to the HST referendum. The day after Adrian Dix won the leadership of the B.C. NDP, he and newly minted Liberal leader Christy Clark seemed to be of the same mind: Dix said the HST was his first priority, while Clark obliged, ruling out a snap election before the June referendum.

In Alberta, health minister Gene Zwozdesky wants to assure Albertans that doctor intimidation was a thing of the past. Meanwhile, premier Ed Stelmach wants to assure Albertans that maverick MLA Raj Sherman’s claim that Stelmach’s office tried to put a muzzle on health care reporting is “a load of crap.”

Happy Tuesday. And, well, sorry if Raffi is now lodged in your brain. Here are the morning’s top headlines.