Documents & Reports

Afghanistan - Pathways to inclusive growth : Overview (Dari)

Abstract

In the first quarter of 2014, Afghanistan finds itself locked in a difficult political, security, and economic transition with outcomes uncertain. The objective of this report is to present Afghanistan's growth dynamics and challenges, analyze patterns... See More +In the first quarter of 2014, Afghanistan finds itself locked in a difficult political, security, and economic transition with outcomes uncertain. The objective of this report is to present Afghanistan's growth dynamics and challenges, analyze patterns of social inclusion, and discuss opportunities for sustained and shared growth and prosperity in the post-transition phase. This report is intended to serve as a foundation stone in the preparation of policy notes for the new government that is expected to take office in late spring of 2014. It builds on a large body of work produced by the World Bank country team in Afghanistan over the past couple of years. This report uses all available data sets for household level, fiscal, monetary, and national accounts, drawn from official Afghan sources. Data availability and reliability in these data sets have improved greatly over time which has allowed for much deeper economic analysis, but as with many post-conflict countries, data collection and aggregation is still hampered by many security-related challenges and institutional weaknesses. Whenever possible, the team has cross-tabulated data and made adjustments based on technical judgments. Still, in light of the data challenges, the robustness and accuracy of the findings should be treated with a degree of caution and discretion. Finally, a few topics relevant for growth and development in this report did not receive the in-depth treatment they probably deserve, due mainly to the attempt to keep the report concise and readerfriendly and because a discussion of these issues will require a much larger research effort. The authors highlight the following areas for future analysis and research to complement this report: (i) the magnitude and role of international migration and remittances, (ii) the optimal degree of regional integration beyond infrastructure cooperation, (iii) the role of cities and urban growth, (iv) job-creation in the informal sector, and (iv) deep determinants of governance and state building.
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