Complex weather pattern over eastern US remainder of the week

A complex weather pattern is evolving across the eastern US that could bring flooding and strong thunderstorms to some areas into the weekend.

A stalled out frontal boundary. A couple of cold fronts. The remains of a tropical storm. All of these features will make for a complex weather pattern over the eastern United States for the remainder of this week and into the weekend.

The Finger Lakes will certainly be impacted by this busy and complicated weather set up. Hopefully though, our impacts will be slight and the worst of the weather will stay to our south.

That will likely be the case on Wednesday, as high pressure north of Lake Ontario helps keep rain from the Ohio Valley from reaching too far north. Acting as a big atmospheric road block, this high should push low pressure over Illinois this morning towards the east. While a few showers cannot be ruled out this afternoon, especially across the Southern Tier, the steady rain should stay south of our region.

We probably will not get as lucky Thursday during the late afternoon and evening hours as a cold front from southern Canada drops into the neighborhood. Showers and thunderstorms are likely with the front, especially Thursday evening. While a few storms may be a bit strong, widespread severe weather is not anticipated at this time, with most of the action coming well after the peak in daytime heating. Still, some locally heavy rain will be possible, which is a high concern after Sunday’s flooding.

It is looking like Friday and Saturday will end up mostly nice and dry behind the cold front. However, the remains of Tropical Storm Bill, which came onshore in eastern Texas on Tuesday, will be moving up through the Ohio Valley. At the same time, another cold front will be dropping towards us from Canada by Sunday. How exactly these two systems interact will be a big question mark heading into the weekend, and I do not trust the computer models to do a good job handling this interaction. Confidence on Sunday’s forecast is therefore low and this situation will have to be watched closely.

The last thing our region needs is heavy rain from a one-time tropical storm.

Meteorologist Drew Montreuil has been forecasting the weather in the Finger Lakes region since 2006 and has degrees in meteorology from SUNY Oswego (B.S. with Honors) and Cornell (M.S.).
Drew and his wife have three young boys and also run a goat milk soap business, Ye Olde Goat Cart. When not working or playing with the boys, he is probably out for a run through the countryside.