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Comment: William Rees-Mogg: Its the economy that will put paid to Labour, stupid

If Hillary Clinton can win the presidency of the United States in November 2004, which is now only 17 months away, Iain Duncan Smith can win a general election in 2005 or perhaps in 2006.

The obvious retort is that she will not and he cannot, and that answer may well prove to be correct. But one can no longer be 100% certain that either proposition is impossible.

Hillary Clinton herself does say that it is impossible; indeed she said it again in England this weekend. She is concerned to be a good senator; she is not thinking about running for the presidency. But there are two conditions that could change her mind, and quite reasonably so. The Democrats, given a strong candidate, would need to have a real chance of winning. If George Bush cannot be beaten, Hillary Clinton will not volunteer to be the fall guy. She will