Dale Earnhardt Jr. has won twice this season: at the season-opening Daytona 500 and above at the Pocono 400 on June 8. / Matthew O'Haren, USA TODAY Sports

by Jeff Gluck, USA TODAY Sports

by Jeff Gluck, USA TODAY Sports

Dale Earnhardt Jr. is tied for the most wins in the Sprint Cup Series, and it's been a long time since anyone could say that at this point in the season.

Though he hasn't had the strongest car, Earnhardt's two victories mean he must be considered a championship contender - especially under NASCAR's revamped Chase for the Sprint Cup format, where seemingly anything could happen.

To say an Earnhardt championship would be good for NASCAR is stating the obvious. He's the 11-time winner of the Most Popular Driver award and his name carries weight outside of the NASCAR bubble.

But if there's ever a year for Earnhardt to win his first Cup title, NASCAR needs this to be it. With many fans still skeptical about the new playoff format, an Earnhardt championship would give it instant popularity no matter how he pulls it off.

The same can't be said for other drivers and circumstances.

From 2004 until this year, NASCAR reset the standings for the final 10 races. Then, whoever had the most points at the end of 10 weeks was the champion.

The new format is dramatically different. The points will be reset three times over 10 races with four drivers in the 16-member field being cut each round. At the end, a one-race finale at Homestead will determine which one of four drivers wins the title.

If that person is Earnhardt, any complaints about the format would be immediately dismissed by most of the general public. The majority of fans would be so pleased with the result that how it occurred would be irrelevant.

The format will be dissected much closer if the champion isn't Earnhardt. That's probably not fair, but it's reality. For example:

Jimmie Johnson and Kevin Harvick have the two strongest cars right now. It's reasonable to assume that may still be the case when the Chase starts. What happens if they win races early in the Chase but have one hiccup in the third round, causing them to miss the finale? If either or both of the most worthy competitors are suddenly sidelined with no shot at the title, it would seem odd.

Matt Kenseth hasn't won a race yet, but he's second in the standings. Even if he doesn't go to victory lane, Kenseth still might be consistent enough to advance to the finals. Since NASCAR tried to make a new format that emphasized winning, a winless champion could look silly.

A driver who has hovered near 10th in the standings all season could survive the first few rounds thanks to consistent top-10 finishes and attrition. He could then use a two-tire pit call during a late debris caution in the finale to get out front and win the championship. If so, it might be tough for fans to accept one strategy call winning the title.

NASCAR's argument for each of those scenarios would be: That could have already happened under the old format. But that's only partially true, because faltering like Kenseth did at Phoenix last year might mean he doesn't make the cut for Homestead.

The new format will make it harder for the fastest car to win, which is what NASCAR wants. Too many of Johnson's six championships had a feeling of inevitability that made the end of the season less suspenseful.

The new Chase could turn out to be a brilliant move that injects new life into the end of the NASCAR season and raises TV ratings. But it could also come off as a watered-down method to crown a champion, which would leave a sour taste in the mouths of longtime fans.

If it's Earnhardt who ends up holding the trophy, NASCAR would have a much easier sell.