There are two elements to Lebanese politics that these pundits forget. First, everyone, including myself, got it wrong and predicted that Hezbollah would sweep the elections and win a majority of parliamentary seats. I think I just counted campaign posters and reckoned that the Shia strongholds seemed more politically mobilised than the more apathetic (and richer) parts of East Beirut.

Second, even if Obama had read straight from the Cairo Yellow Pages in his speech, Hezbollah still probably would have lost. Obama, contrary to the gaga coverage of his Middle East trip, does not deserve credit for the victory. Lebanese moderates do.

The Lebanese I spoke to on a recent trip, mostly a mix of Christians and Sunnis sprinkled throughout Beirut, Byblos and Tripoli, have a strong aversion to Hezbollah, Syria and Iran, and rightfully so. They see Shias as un-cosmopolitan radicals and religious zealots who are in bed with Iran. They care little for their anti-Israel rhetoric and do not want to wage another senseless war.

There is also speculation that Lebanese Shias, not just Syrians, had a hand in killing their former prime minister, Rafik Hariri, a Sunni. The philosophy of these Lebanese can best be summed up: Let the good times roll, let bygones be bygones with Israel and, oh yeah, butt out of our politics (that means you too, America).

Despite the global recession, the Lebanese economy remains strong. Remittances are pouring in from rich Lebanese abroad (though that is expected to dip). Construction is everywhere. The all-night clubs in Achrafieh are packed. And credit cards are being maxed out to afford that new SUV and facelift. Politics has taken a back seat to economics, so better not disrupt the status quo.

Of course, there are some traditional Lebanese who are against this kind of in-your-face decadence. They see the son of the former prime minister, Saad Hariri, as a billionaire playboy who cannot possibly understand the wishes of average Lebanese, much less hold a candle to his popular father. Nor do they want to be seen as pawns of the west, especially Washington. When an American vice-president says "vote for X or else we'll withhold aid," that has the opposite effect and is usually the kiss of death of X.

Nothing that Obama mutters can alter that reality on the ground. In all my travels (save perhaps Georgia), I found the least enthusiasm for Obama probably in Lebanon. That is because they are taking a wait-and-see approach. Actions matter more than words, I keep hearing, and so far Obama's actions have been to cozy up to Iran and Syria and double-down on the United State's special relationship with Israel, despite its weak calls for leaders there to dismantle settlements.

But their suspicions also fall into a larger pattern: Obama, as cold and calculating a politician as any, has shown an uncanny willingness to throw smaller countries under the proverbial bus for geopolitical expediency, whether it is Armenia (his refusal to anger Turkey by wading into its dispute over the 1915 genocide) or Georgia (his backpedaling on allowing Tbilisi into Nato).

Small surprise then that Lebanese fear they may be forgotten after this week as the White House reaches out to Iran and Syria. At least Obama's predecessor squeezed Damascus to remove its forces from Lebanon.

The Lebanese deserve credit for voting against Hezbollah's coalition. But let's not credit all good news from the region to the magic wand of the White House. Similarly, if Iranians toss Mahmoud Ahmadinejad out of office this weekend, it will be because they are voting with their wallets and heads, rejecting his extremist rhetoric and failed economic policies, not because they are somehow casting a vote for Obama. That is just ridiculous and overly fawning to the powers of this president's words.