North Korean Missile Watch: Day 14

In this Dec. 12, 2012 file photo released by Korean Central News Agency, North Korea’s Unha-3 rocket lifts off from the Sohae launch pad in Tongchang-ri, North Korea.

What’s going on with North Korea’s supposed missile launch?

It’s two weeks since the Musudan missile (or, according to some reports, two) was first reported to have been moved to North Korea’s east coast, triggering alarm across the region and further afield.

Following those April 4 reports, North Korea flagged a possible launch date of April 10 by warning diplomats in Pyongyang that war might break out on that date. But the day came and went with no launch, as did the April 15 celebrations of the 101st anniversary of the birth of Kim Il Sung.

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So is it all a charade just to spook North Korea’s neighbors and keep tensions high?

As of late Wednesday there were no signs of an imminent launch, but a spokesman for Seoul’s Defense Ministry reiterated what his minister said on Monday: “We still believe the North is ready to fire the missile any time. We’re open to all options and are prepared.”

One thing that may be keeping Pyongyang from pressing the launch button is the huge cost. The launch of a Musudan would cost the country some $18 million, according to South Korean media, although North Korea has shown before it’s more than willing to plough scarce funds into missile tests.

Even though the missile hasn’t been tested by North Korea before it may be saving it for export. According to the International Institute for Strategic Studies, North Korea has sold over the past two decades hundreds of missiles and related equipment that have probably earned it several hundred million dollars.

Another area of North Korean passive-aggressivism is the Kaesong Industrial Complex, where operations have been frozen for a week without any sign of a resolution after Pyongyang pulled out all of its staff.

North Korea on Wednesday rejected a request by a delegation of South Korean businessmen to deliver food and supplies to 200 of their staff still inside the complex.

Kim Hyung-suk, a spokesman for Seoul’s Unification Ministry, said that South Korea has no plans to pull out completely and will wait for North Korea to bring back its workers.

“The Kaesong industrial complex is significant in our long journey toward a peaceful and prosperous future of the 70 million South and North Koreans. Although the North is creating difficulty, we have been dealing with this calmly and coolly,” said Mr. Kim.

“What’s important is to normalize the Kaesong plant. And for that, we keep urging the North to change its attitude.”

That didn’t look likely Wednesday, when North Korean state media fired off another dispatch entitled “S. Korean Authorities Slammed for Driving Kaesong Industrial Zone into Crisis.”