The EIU view

The president, Adama Barrow, will remain in power in 2019-20, albeit amid an increasingly fractious political landscape. The political and social situation will remain broadly stable in 2019-20. As policymaking gathers pace under the new administration, we expect economic growth to gradually pick-up. This will be driven by higher agricultural output, recovery in trade and tourism, strengthening investor interest and sustained aid inflows.

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President to serve full five-year term
The president's decision is in line with the constitution, but it is likely to dent his popularity among certain sections of the public, and cause greater political fragmentation in 2019-20.

IMF approves new staff-monitored programme
Although progress on reducing the debt stock will be gradual, we think the government will remain committed to the Funds's reform proposals to secure prospective future funding.

Variable: Good Friday, Easter Monday. In addition, all Muslim holidays are observed in accordance with the Islamic or hijri calendar, based on the lunar year, which is about 11 days shorter than the Gregorian year. Ramadan will fall in May-June in 2018. Eid al-Fitr (marking the end of Ramadan; June 14th) and Eid al-Adha (Feast of the SacrificeˇŞthe tenth day of the haj, or pilgrimage; August 20th) are public holidays