Martin O'Neill was holding court in a hotel in Marbella before a ball had been kicked this season and, as he considered Manchester City's spending power, talked about a "reinvented" Premier League with a "genuine top five". O'Neill was trying to work out where City's emergence left Aston Villa in the pecking order and nine months later he has his answer: one point and place ahead of City with eight days of the season remaining.

The two clubs meet at Eastlands today in a pivotal match full of intriguing sub-plots as both sides chase the victory needed to keep alive hopes of overhauling Tottenham Hotspur and finishing fourth. It is certainly not the scenario O'Neill envisaged in July, when he felt that City, because of their financial muscle, were "stepping over" Villa, and claimed that the world's richest club "should be favourites to win the league".

Yet by unlikely coincidence a couple of City's transfer deals last summer played a part in helping Villa to compete this season. Villa fans lamented Gareth Barry's switch to Eastlands but, ultimately, his exit allowed James Milner to move inside and excel, while City's decision to spend £24m on Joleon Lescott and allow Richard Dunne to leave for £5m must rank as the most ridiculous piece of business last summer.

Milner and Dunne have been outstanding for Villa, their contributions recognised by their peers when they were named in the Professional Footballers' Association Premier League team of the year. Barry, meanwhile, has gone from being an influential player at Villa to a peripheral one at City, raising questions about his place in the England team, and Lescott's season has been hampered by inconsistent form and injuries.

All of which explains why City have identified Milner as a transfer target and, in the case of Dunne, makes their chief executive, Garry Cook, look a little foolish. Dunne claimed he would "happily have stayed and fought for my place" at City but Cook, whom the defender accused of "trying to sell me behind my back", seemed to have made up his mind a year earlier when he said: "Richard Dunne doesn't roll off the tongue in Beijing."

O'Neill was more interested in what Dunne would bring to Villa's defence than how many shirts he might sell and his impact has been there for all to see. The manager said yesterday: "I have always said that if things had been different, and he had stayed at Manchester City, he would have eventually worked his way back into the team. But whatever turmoil he was in he recovered from that. He has been sensational for us.

"For us to replace Martin Laursen, you could search high and low and not be able to do it, not just for a player, but for everything; his leadership, the quiet way he went about things – and in many aspects Dunne is exactly the same. Laursen gave us a great desire and great will, and many an experienced player here depended on Laursen and getting that from him. Dunne has done exactly that."

Milner's form has been even more impressive, with John Carew claiming his performances have not just softened the blow of Barry leaving but actually made Villa a better side. "I think he filled the gap after Gareth, maybe even more. We haven't really noticed [Gareth's departure] and the team has got stronger," Carew said. "James can play for any team in the world with the way that he's playing."

O'Neill hopes that team will be Villa next season but much could depend on today's result and whether either club can qualify for the Champions League. "I actually think our performances this season, and what we've done in the cups, means we deserve this two-game crack at it," O'Neill said. "To give ourselves a chance we need to put maximum points on the board and that won't be easy, particularly under this sort of pressure."