An Examination of Multiple Bubbles: A Case Study of Iranian Housing Marketسعیدراسخیauthorمیلادشهرازیauthortextarticle2014perÂ Since the housing sector has a wide relationship with other economic sectors, fluctuations due to price bubbles of this asset can lead to heavy costs. So, detection of the housing price bubbles must be examined to provide a primary alarming system for the prevention of economic adverse consequences. For this purpose, we have examined whether or not the Iranian housing price has been bubbled during the time period 2002:03-2014:09. To answer the question, we have employed the right-tailed unit root tests suggested by Phillips, et al. (2012). The results based on this new method show that Iranian housing market has experienced the explosive behavior and multiple bubbles during the time period.Journal of Economic Modelingدانشگاه سمنان2345-654X1

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2014114http://jem.journals.semnan.ac.ir/article_1501_9fc6ad449027dcadf695aa9c3440888b.pdfdx.doi.org/10.22075/jem.2017.1501Household Participation in Pollution: Case study CO2زهرانصراللهیauthorسمیهنوری زادهauthorشهراموصفی اسفستانیauthortextarticle2014perÂ The experiences of developed countries showed that economic development with emphasis on irregular use of environment would make serious problems on sustainable development. Increasing energy consumption is one of the main factors contributing in emissions of greenhouse gas. One of the main sectors of energy demand and thus contributing to greenhouse gas emissions is household sector, so this paper examines the share of households in Yazd province to CO2 emissions. Â Using the extended input-output data tables with 20 parts, the analysis results are discussed. The results show that the Carbon dioxide emissions from household natural gas consumption with a share of 70 percent is in the first and kerosene with 20% share is in the second place. It has been observed that the amount of direct propagation coefficient in carbon emissions is equal to 0/121826664 Million Rails which mean that for every million rails demand in the household sector 0/121826664 Carbon dioxide gas is released.Journal of Economic Modelingدانشگاه سمنان2345-654X1

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20141534http://jem.journals.semnan.ac.ir/article_1502_f4dda2c39a829395b214628639a90f4a.pdfdx.doi.org/10.22075/jem.2017.1502Estimation of Confidence Intervals for the Threshold Level of Income Inequality in Iranخسروپیراییauthorمحمدعلیزادهauthorهادیرضاییauthorمریمبرزگر مروستیauthortextarticle2014perÂ The overall aim of this study is to construct confidence interval for the optimal size of income inequality, i.e., that size of income inequality which is embodying optimal economic growth in Iran concerning 1353-1391. This size is called to the threshold limit. i.e., the size of income inequality more this limit, has a negative effect on economic growth. Using Hansen two - regime threshold regression model, a relationship was obtained between the effects of income inequality threshold level and economic growth. Then, bootstrap test was done to test linear hypothesis at problems of existence of threshold method. Finally, likelihood ratio was used to obtain the confidence interval for threshold. The results show that income inequality in Iran follow up threshold two regime methods that was 0.417. Also, likelihood ratio test result indicates that the threshold level of income inequality is within the confidence interval .Journal of Economic Modelingدانشگاه سمنان2345-654X1

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20143552http://jem.journals.semnan.ac.ir/article_1503_3510ca888940c9d09a1545361909e287.pdfdx.doi.org/10.22075/jem.2017.1503Simulating Environmental Kuznets Curve in Iran using Genetic Algorithm (GA) and Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) Algorithmحسینصادقیauthorامیدستاریauthortextarticle2014perAccording to the Environmental Kuznets curve hypothesis, the relationship between per-capita GDP and per-capita Pollutants has an inverted U-shape. Most studies on this subject are based on estimating fully parametric quadratic or cubic regression models. The purpose of this paper is to simulate the relationship between per-capita carbon dioxide (CO2) emission and per capita income in Iran using genetic algorithm and Particle swarm optimization algorithm concerning three functional forms (linear, quadratic and exponential). Investigating the forecasting accuracy criteria the most subtle model is used to forecast per-capita Co2 emission up to 2025 concerning five scenarios. More minuteness of GA, choosing exponential form as the most subtle functional form, positive effect of Fossil fuel energy consumption and negative effect of economic growth on Co2 emission are the main results.Journal of Economic Modelingدانشگاه سمنان2345-654X1

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20145380http://jem.journals.semnan.ac.ir/article_1504_d77e612e8ef437e9320000551871667b.pdfdx.doi.org/10.22075/jem.2017.1504The Structural Factors Affecting Income Distribution emphasizing on Corruptionابراهیمرضاییauthorآیساعلیزاده حصارauthorزهراصالحیان صالحی نژادauthortextarticle2014perÂ Using panel data structure and GMM estimation method, this study, investigates the possible effects of Corruption on income distribution of selected MENA countries concerning the period 1996-2010. The Corruption Perceptions Index and Gini Coefficient are employed to indicate the level of corruption and income inequality, respectively. In addition, some other variables are used as potential control measures affecting income distribution. Â The results show that corruption along with population growth rate and enrollment level increases the income inequality, significantly. The openness of economy has no significant effect on income distribution. So, the conclusion indicates that the corruption and population growth have the greatest effect on income distribution. This implies the importance of these variables (e.g. demographic transition and corruption controls) concerning policyÂ­ debates.Journal of Economic Modelingدانشگاه سمنان2345-654X1

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20148198http://jem.journals.semnan.ac.ir/article_1505_066ff616e03a592ad754a88f42ab94ad.pdfdx.doi.org/10.22075/jem.2017.1505The Effect of Gas Price Increase on Household Consumption in Semnan after the First Stage Implementation of Targeted Subsidiesآزادهمحرابیانauthorساجدکاشفیauthortextarticle2014perÂ Government subsidies are one of the most important challenges in Iranâs economy, especially concerning the field of energy. The main objective of this paper is to examine the impact of natural gas price shocks on consumption of Semnan household Gas subscribers. Thus , the function o f household consumption of natural gas customers in Semnan city was estimated by Generalized Moments Method (GMM), during April 1385 and March 1391. Variables consisted are natural gas prices, lag of per capita consumption, temperature, lag of per capita income, the price of electricity. According to the estimated price and income elasticity, consumers have significant sensitivity to changes in natural Gas prices however structural break has not been observed in the pattern of natural Gas consumption.Journal of Economic Modelingدانشگاه سمنان2345-654X1

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201499122http://jem.journals.semnan.ac.ir/article_1506_6ded3006806752e2dfd886a40d86e40c.pdfdx.doi.org/10.22075/jem.2017.1506Oil and Non-oil Export, Non-export Sector and Economic Growth: New Approach to Feder Economic Growth Modelهمایونرنجبرauthorسعیددایی کریم زادهauthorصابرمعتقدauthortextarticle2014perÂ The income produced from oil export has a considerable role in the economic sectors of Iran such as non-oil export, non-export sector and economic growth. This article used an extended version of Feder model (1982) to estimate the effects of oil and non-oil export in non-export sector and economic growth process in Iran since 1978-2011. The results suggest that oil export and non-oil export have a positive significant effect on the economic growth. Further, it shows that oil export has a positive significant externality effect on non-oil exports and non-export sectors. Also, non-oil export has a positive significant externality effect on non-exports sector.Journal of Economic Modelingدانشگاه سمنان2345-654X1