GOP makes gains on Senate scoreboard

After a raucous February, Republican Senate candidates were on the rise in March, making gains in Nevada, Missouri, Ohio and Florida in POLITICO’s Senate Monthly 10, a roundup of the most competitive contests in the country.

Angus King’s independent candidacy in Maine is complicating the GOP’s march to the Senate majority, but developments in the two states where Republicans are on defense — Massachusetts and Nevada — have buttressed the party’s confidence.

Most polls since the new year have continued to show a virtual tie between George Allen and Tim Kaine for the seat of retiring Democratic Sen. Jim Webb in this swing state. That’s why it’s not surprising that outside groups are chomping at the bit to dive into what’s consistently been the most competitive Senate contest in the country. A day after a super PAC supporting Allen announced its formation, a group of Democratic consultants rushed to the aid of Kaine to organize their own. Kaine had attempted a move to ban “secret money,” but trailing in fundraising, Allen demurred.

Even after setting aside the fickle polling in this race, the momentum this month turned in GOP Sen. Scott Brown’s favor. Democrats are openly acknowledging that the freshman has cemented himself as a moderate and centrist, while cracks are showing in Democrat Elizabeth Warren’s “insular” coalition.

“Local Democrats feel they’re totally cut off from the campaign,” one Democratic strategist complained to the Boston Herald. Even powerhouse Democratic Boston Mayor Tom Menino — and his machinery — is still neutral. “I’m not with anybody at this time,” he told a local TV station.

The revelation of an ethics investigation of Rep. Shelley Berkley led Silver State political columnist Jon Ralston to opine that her chances of taking Sen. Dean Heller’s seat might be “eclipsed” if the issue isn’t resolved.

The allegations — which center on whether the seven-term Democrat inappropriately used her influence in the Capitol to aid her husband’s medical practice — hand Republicans a sledgehammer to use in their fall advertising. Berkley also took ample blowback for aggressively petitioning to get Rush Limbaugh yanked off the airwaves, a wholeheartedly political move perceived back home as beneath her.

An early March Sunday front-page story in newspapers across the state that detailed Sen. Jon Tester’s votes with President Barack Obama is just the type of narrative GOP Rep. Denny Rehberg wants, especially with the president’s approval rating in the state mired in the 30s. The Tester campaign launched its first TV spot, portraying the first-term Democrat as a gun-toting, fiscally conservative farmer. Rehberg points to the liberal sources of Tester’s war chest to tarnish that country-boy image.

Who Won March: Draw

Latest poll: No recent public polling

5. Missouri (down 2 spots)

With Republican State Auditor Tom Schweich finally ending speculation about a late entry into the race against Sen. Claire McCaskill, the fluid three-way GOP primary is finally beginning to jell. Businessman John Brunner and former State Treasurer Sarah Steelman assailed Rep. Todd Akin for supporting the 2003 Medicare prescription drug program. Akin accused Steelman of championing the same pet projects as a state senator that she now decries. And Steelman’s endorsement from the California-based Tea Party Express rankled some local activists who remain divided. Yet there is sunshine for the hobbled Missouri Republican Party: a poll showing all three now besting McCaskill, with Steelman holding the largest lead.

The article loses all credibility when it even mentions a Rasmussen "so called poll." You add 4-6 points to the late Raspublican's polls. The early ones are completely made up to keep up the Republican's spirits, and bear no relation to reality.

I really love how all the liberals on Politico, (Which includes Politico itself), dump on the Rasmussen Poll. First off, Rasmussen polls likely voters where most other polls poll Registered Voters. If you look back into the history of polls in the 2008 cycle and 2010 cycle you will see that Rasmussen was by far the most accurate. Living in Maine, and a fan of Angus King when Governor, I am a little disappointed in what has happened. First off, losing Olympia Snowe hurts not only Maine, but the country! Secondly, Angus has already swallowed the partisan pill and is in the hip pocket of Harry Reid. That is disappointing.....because, the Independent Angus King was awesome. But, it is very well known in this state, that Harry Reid and Angus King have made a deal.....talking all three Democrats out of running if Angus King agreed to caucus with the Democrats and support Reid for leadership. So, Representative Chellie Pingree, Representative Mike Michaud and former Governor John Baldacci......like the good little foot soldiers they are, withdrew their desire to become Senator. Angus hasn't even started to serve and he has already made back room deals. Independent???? Sad.

Rasmussen is one of the most accurate polls there is. They consisently get it right once the votes are in.

Liberals are only interested in polls that bolster their position. Did you liberals not witness the blowout that Rasmussen predicted in 2010 when the polls you favor predicated the losses would be much less than what actually happened?

This election won't be a complete rout like 2010 but it is a fantasy to think the Dems are going to take back the house and the odds are the Repubs gain control of the Senate.

THE DAVID SENATE RACES MAKES NO MENTION OF NEBRASKER WHERE MY SPIRITS GOT A LARGE BOOST GODEMS.

PPP: Kerrey makes things worse in Nebraska for Democrats Defending the open seat.

Surprise!

PPP’s newest Nebraska Senate poll finds that Democrats are in a much worse position with Bob Kerrey as their candidate than they would have been with Ben Nelson, and that Jon Bruning is now a strong favorite in both the primary and general elections.

Kerrey’s campaign rollout has not been a success. In October his favorability rating in the state was a +5 spread at 39/34. Since then it’s dropped 20 points on the margin to -15 at 36/51. Kerrey’s stayed steady with Democrats but has seen large drops with independents (from 47/24 to 36/38) and with Republicans (from 23/47 to 16/74).

Kerrey trails the top 3 Republican contenders by double digits. He’s down 17 to Jon Bruning at 54-37, 14 to Don Stenberg at 52-38, and 10 to Deb Fischer at 48-38. In PPP’s last poll before he announced his retirement Ben Nelson trailed Bruning by only 4, Stenberg by 3, and actually led Fischer by 2. This does not appear to be one of those instances where a retirement left the party better off.

The early ones are completely made up to keep up the Republican's spirits, and bear no relation to reality

CHECK THIS GODEMS. IT ALSO LIFTS MY SPIRIT!

Of note, Walker has both a better job-approval rating than Obama (50%-47% versus 48%-47%) and a positive personal favorability rating (50%-45%

Walker up between 2 and 4 on major recall rivals! In the general election against Walker, slated for June 5 not even the aforementioned heavy partisan split favoring the Democrats helped them in this poll.

Bobsyouruncle Party: Independent Reply #4 Mar. 29, 2012 - 8:04 AM EST Should be but almost certainly won't be. It's almost a 50/50 proposition that Republicans lose the House and don't win the Senate. Still a long ways out though.

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LOL! The House was never in play and the Senate is going over to the Republicans period. The last hope of the left to retain some sort of power (remember, you guys got smoked in the redistricting battles too) in Washington is (chuckle chuckle) obama's re-election.

You poor slobs are on the threshold of a string of crushing defeats that will make your Wisconsin debacle seem pretty d*mned mild by comparison.

obamacare getting flushed down the toilet is only the begining. Sucks to be you but it's great to be an American.

Maybe I am just living in a bubble or something. But how do you with any intellectual senserity Vote republican. I mean the people in the party are telling you to your face that their priority is big business. They have tanked this economy over the past 30 plus years. They tell you to your face that the safety nets you pay into by paying taxes they are going to cut but they are going to give those benefits in the form of subsidies and big tax cuts to the wealthiest. They tell you to your face that big business can do what every they want to you ( credit cards, banks, ) because its the free market. They tell you they want to do away with the EPA and FDA and the market will make sure people aren't eating contaminated food. Basically they are saying well don't worry about the fact that your kid gets from solmanila, because next time you'll just buy a different brand. And then they say if your child get's sick you can just pay for it yourself becuase if you are poor your just lazy and should not get health insurance, or if your health insurance won't cover the sickness or partially covers it... well just buy something diffrent. Then they tell you that maybe one day your can be as rich as they are and then your will be able to benefit from their policy... so vote for them now .. just in case.. This is the essence of the right and trickle down economics.. ...

I don't understand why people over and over again vote against their best interest. and then wine and vote a democrat to clean it up then vote against their best interest again.

By the way, do you have any idea what the term "trickle down" refers to? Any at all? Of course not. You're using it because you heard someone else use it. You have no clue.

Here's a hint: It doesn't refer to to the attitudes of rich evil white guys as Carville would have you believe. It's an economic term that's been misused for years because undereducated people like you would get riled up by it.

In a recent debate all three candidates for the Republican nomination opposed the federal minimum wage and want it abolished. Not one, when asked during the debate, including Congressman Aiken, knew what the federal minimum wage was.

If the Pubs hold their own and win 4 seats, they get the Senate. It is important that Obama lose too. If the Pubs win both houses and the WH,many of the socialist plans will go by the wayside, Obamacare will have to be torn up by the roots even if SCOTUS rules it Un, and conservs will have to really put pressure on their own Prez ,Mitt or someone, to keep at it and make sure none of the failed policies that BHO proposed in his 4 yrs., make a comeback.