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Can we get a Ted Lilly projection please? He appears in the career projections but nowhere else. I want to see if ZiPS thinks that my favourite presidential pitcher has a shot at a better year than 2011.

Since this is a nitpicky comment, I feel the need to preface it with this: awesome work as always, Dan.

I'm wondering, though, are ZiPs' predictions for Runs glitching this season? I ask because there's a guy with a .297 projected OBP and 4 steals (i.e., not likely a great baserunner) projected to score 100 runs in ~600 AB's. Last year's Dodgers had exactly 1 guy score more than 67 runs, and the guy with 67 had a .368 OBP in 487 AB's (Ethier). I noticed Liddi (.292 projected OBP) projected to score 110 in the Mariners ZiPs and assumed it was a typo that would get fixed in the final release, but after seeing Songco's projection here I thought I'd ask. If there's been discussion of this in previous threads and I'm just behind, I apologize. Just trying to do my part to keep ZiPs the best projection system out there!

Kemp's BA looks awful low.
From the outside looking in, it looks like 2010 is getting weighted too heavily. But of course you don't change the weights for any one player. Up through and including 2010 he had a .285 career BA. His .324 last year brought his career avg up to .294. He's heading into his age 28 season and still running well.

I am sure ZIPS is taking into account many factors regarding balls in play type, BABIP on those balls in play, etc. His BABIP on GB was .316, career .294, and he actually had a higher GB BABIP in 2008. His FB BABIP was .174, and thats right in line with his .179 career avg and well below his career high in 2009. His LD BABIP is the one that looks a little out of whack....809 vs .739 for career...but there are a lot less LD of course, 90-100 per year, so we are only talking about 3-4 hits there. I guess if you whack off a few homers too, than you might get the avg under .285....

It just seems for a guy that hits the ball that hard all the time, and has a career .352 BABIP, the B.A. is over regressed by ZIPS.

OTOH....you have him about a .332 BABIP above, vs his career .352. 7 Hits difference, which if you gave back to him puts him at .292 vs. the .280 you project. The only time Kemp has had a BABIP lower than .345 was 2010. But .332 is not an unreasonable BABIP conclusion either.