(Adds data, tables)
By Dion Rabouin
Nov 17 (Reuters) - Speculators cut their bearish bets on the
U.S. dollar for the seventh straight week, with the net negative
value of positions against the greenback falling to a four-month
low.
Calculations by Reuters of data from the Commodity Futures
Trading Commission (CFTC) showed bets on the dollar totaled
negative $643 million, the lowest since mid-July when
speculators held a net-positive position in the dollar.
Short bets against the dollar have extended their decline as
the year has progressed and bets on another U.S. interest rate
increase from the Federal Reserve have been almost entirely
priced into the dollar.
Fed funds futures rates show market investors see a 91.5
percent chance of a rate hike at the Fed's next meeting in
December, raising the U.S. overnight interest rate to 1.25-1.50
percent, while 8.5 percent see an increase to 1.50-1.75 percent
and zero percent of investors see the rate remaining at its
current 1.00-1.25 percent level.
Speculators' net short position in the Japanese yen grew to
its largest since December 2013 as traders continued to bet that
the yen would fall.
Investors' preference for borrowing at low rates in one
currency to invest in another with higher returns creates
selling pressure on low-yielding currencies such as the yen.
To be long a currency means making a bet that the currency
will appreciate, while to be short a currency means betting that
it will depreciate in value.
The Reuters calculation for the aggregate U.S. dollar
position is derived from net positions of International Monetary
Market speculators in the yen, euro, British pound, Swiss franc
and Canadian and Australian dollars.
In a wider measure of dollar positioning that
includes net contracts on the New Zealand dollar, Mexican peso,
Brazilian real and Russian ruble, the U.S. dollar posted a net
short position valued at negative $2.41 billion, compared with
negative $3.69 billion a week earlier.
That is the closest speculators' bets on the dollar have
been to even in that metric since they were net-positive on June
30.
Japanese Yen (Contracts of 12,500,000 yen)
$14.986 billion
Nov. 14, 2017 Prior week
week
Long 49,347 54,336
Short 185,346 182,184
Net -135,999 -127,848
EURO (Contracts of 125,000 euros)
$-12.472 billion
Nov. 14, 2017 Prior week
week
Long 200,023 181,335
Short 115,437 95,880
Net 84,586 85,455
POUND STERLING (Contracts of 62,500 pounds sterling)
$0.373 billion
Nov. 14, 2017 Prior week
week
Long 53,147 50,403
Short 57,680 59,601
Net -4,533 -9,198
SWISS FRANC (Contracts of 125,000 Swiss francs)
$3.536 billion
Nov. 14, 2017 Prior week
week
Long 19,470 19,568
Short 47,453 44,678
Net -27,983 -25,110
CANADIAN DOLLAR (Contracts of 100,000 Canadian dollars)
$-3.719 billion
Nov. 14, 2017 Prior week
week
Long 70,473 75,460
Short 23,138 24,571
Net 47,335 50,889
AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR (Contracts of 100,000 Aussie dollars)
$-3.359 billion
Nov. 14, 2017 Prior week
week
Long 73,155 75,144
Short 29,123 29,707
Net 44,032 45,437
MEXICAN PESO (Contracts of 500,000 pesos)
$-1.632 billion
Nov. 14, 2017 Prior week
week
Long 92,961 88,731
Short 30,428 31,756
Net 62,533 56,975
NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR (Contracts of 100,000 New Zealand dollars)
$0.817 billion
Nov. 14, 2017 Prior week
week
Long 18,146 18,943
Short 30,037 30,130
Net -11,891 -11,187
(Reporting by Dion Rabouin, editing by G Crosse)