This week’s changes are mostly the nitpicky, hair splitting variety between “likely” and “certain” that some readers are far more entertained by than I am. But there will still be plenty of room to split hairs if you're so inclined.

With the Fringe renewal out of the way, I’ve upgraded both Alcatraz & The Finder to merely “likely” cancellation rather than certain cancellation. Despite this week’s lows for Touch against the NFL Draft (hey, Fan Excuse Bingo is open to all!) I think it’s still likely that it is picked up at least for a 13 episode second season.

Private Practice was upgraded to likely renewal. In recent ratings there isn’t much separating GCB and Scandal from Revenge, but the former two shows are still on the bubble and the latter is still likely to be renewed. As expected, without a new episode of Modern Family as its lead-in, Don’t Trust the B---- in Apt. 23 fell over 20%, but it’s still likely to be renewed.

With the CW pack of shows tightening, I’ve upgraded Ringer from certain cancellation to likely cancellation and Hart of Dixie from likely cancellation to “on the bubble.” If I were a Nikita fan I would certainly be worried, but as long as it’s a genre show airing on a Friday, even if it has only 2/3rds the ratings of Supernatural it will likely stay on the bubble the remainder of the season, but that’s not cause for celebration.

Based on ratings alone, The L.A. Complex debuted to “certain cancellation” but there’s plenty of room for hairsplitting & disclaiming and semantics. I’ve got it a “likely cancellation” with an asterisk and not because it’s only aired one episode. Before that episode even aired in the U.S. it was renewed for a 13 episode second season in Canada. It seems unlikely those episodes will air on the CW next season, at least during the normal September-May TV season, but we have no “sure to be canceled in the USA, but already renewed in Canada” designation.

When it comes to bubble status, like the Renew/Cancel Index we're focusing on the likelihood that a show will be renewed **for next season** (2012-13). Certain shows are toss-ups where based on the ratings, the renewal decisions could go either way and not be surprising.

Here, “canceled” is used interchangeably with “won’t be renewed for next season” and is not meant to imply a show will be yanked off the schedule in the current season though obviously the two outcomes are not mutually exclusive. The semantics police and lawyers should feel free to break out the handcuffs and plead their cases in the comments. Besides, no matter what anyone at ABC says, reasonable people know with certainty that Pan Am isn't coming back next season.

This Isn't The Renew/Cancel Index

Though the basic methodology is the same (intra-network relative ranking of shows by adults 18-49 ),unlike the Renew/Cancel Index which predicts what would happen if the season ended now, Bubble Watch prognosticates about what will happen by May. The two are still usually closely aligned, and almost certainly very closely aligned towards the end of the season.

Note: only scripted shows that have aired at least one episode this season are in the table below.

I doubt it! Only if CW is out next year! I think till the nework can survive and supernatural will survive! So 2014 will be out with all cw wich looks like bad joke!

Sid

You know what irks me so much? People here are calling for NIKITA’s cancellation when it gets a 0.5/0.4 in Fridays but in some insane delusional way, Ringer, Hart of Dixie and The Secret Circle which are freshman dramas are getting 0.5’s and they should get renewed.

If anything, CW should cancel ALL underperforming freshman dramas (along with Nikita) because NONE of them show that they have a promising future.

Dean_W

I Like ‘Ringer’ but I don’t think it’ll be Renewed because of the catastrophic Ratings and Sarah Michelle Gellar is pregnant of her Second child. She plays twins on the Show and it’ll be a Cancelation factor.

suzie

Im glad HOD has been upgraded to on the bubble, it seems only fair.

ber

I disagree and don’t understand your reasonings about FOX. Why would Fringe being renewed increase Finder/ Alcatraz’s reneweal propects? Do you think FOx will pick them up for the remaining half season on Friday after Fringe ends, despite them being miles away from syndication? I really don’t get it. Also, Touch as likely reneweal makes no sense.

I’ve said it before, but you guys refuse to pay attention to scheduling time. With Sundays out due to animation, 3 hours dedicated o X-Factor, Friays out for unscripted and Fringe, 2 hours for commedies as announced, plus Glee and Bones, there is only one hour left on Fox’s schedule. Do you really think they will spend it on Touch, who is already pulling 1s behind Idol rather than launch a new drama, which would be unheard of for a network? I think you guys reaaally need to start taking into account scheduling issues into your prediction models, I think it plays as big as a role as syndication, especially on networks with limited airing time (FOX and CW). Touch is a bubble show at this point, to say the least!

ber

Oh and the Ringer upgrade also makes zero sense to me. It’s dead…

Fake Me Out

IMHO

Fan Excuse Bingo for why Ringer didn’t get a 2nd season … “They were going to renew it but SMG went and got herself preggers so that messed with the filming schedule so they had to forgo a renewal”

YMMV

Help save Endgame and watch season 1 on Hulu and RIP Todd and the Book of Pure Evil

Tessa

@SidIf anything, CW should cancel ALL underperforming freshman dramas (along with Nikita) because NONE of them show that they have a promising future.

If the rumors of 6 new shows next season are true (which I still can’t buy because of the budget that move would require) then that might be exactly where the CW is headed.

David Howell

Should there be six new CW pickups? Very simply: yes.

* OTH is gone anyway, and it’s safe to assume The LA Complex won’t air any in-season episodes in 2012-13 in the US.
* Ringer has been a flop with heavy marketing.
* Nikita would be a flop for two more seasons if renewed because of pursuing a syndication deal it would never get.
* TSC has fallen to cancellation-worthy numbers in the best timeslot on the network.
* HOD has lacked an audience from the start.

That’s five slots that could almost certainly be improved through new shows – of those, only one is even marginal for me (and it’s HOD, not TSC). As for the sixth, that’s simple – 13-episode final season for Gossip Girl, 13-episode season for Cult.

Mark

The CW should just do a clean sweep of all it’s shows besides VD, ATNM and SN. It just seems like the CW made the mistake of letting the bar get lower and lower for what they consider passable in terms of ratings. The only thing I might do if they need to fill a spot is give a couple shows 13 episode orders and play one of them before xmas, the other after.

Tessa

@ber

Robert just likes to play around with the CW shows on his bubble watch. Most of the times the moves don’t make sense.

Dan S

I’ve been watching Touch but honestly feel the show should be downgraded to on the bubble. I feel Alcatraz is more deserving of a renewal drawing similar numbers & why Is Harry’s Law certain cancellation where TV Line at least has it at could go either way ? NBC has a show drawing over 8.5 M viewers & they need to find a way to tweak the show to improve its 18-49 demo. They could move it to Friday with lower expectations & still draw a similar audience total & still make $$$

http://tvbythenumbers.com Robert Seidman

@Ber: exactly the kind of hair splitting I’d hoped for — pondering why something is likely to be canceled! I was fairly close to knocking ‘Touch’ down, and may well do so next week. We don’t refuse to look at the scheduling, I look at it a lot. But Friday’s *isn’t* out of play for scripted next season (see Fringe).

Red Jane

Can’t believe Fox would renew Alcatraz, which was awful and a ratings disaster, to replace Fringe from mid-season – surely it makes more sense to test a brand new show that has a chance to be a hit.

The Finder’s prospects do not look great but I have a soft spot for this show and its characters.

With SMG pregnant, perhaps Ringer gets a chance to get its act together with an order for 13 episodes. I’d say with the overall CW situation, anything is possible….

Fake Me Out

@Robert Seidman “… Alcatraz and The Finder are certainly likely to be canceled … ”

If nitpicky hair splitting increases page views, you just found a 3rd category you can use to torment the feeble minded … I love it! Can we think up even more?! How many is too many?

Canceled Again, This Time We Mean It
CanceledCanceled for All Except the Delusional and Nitpicky
Certain CancellationCertain Likely Cancellation
Likely CancellationNear the BubbleLikely on the Bubble
On The BubbleOn The Bubble Unless It’s Not
…

YMMV

Help save Endgame and watch season 1 on Hulu and RIP Todd and the Book of Pure Evil

WB

1. THE VAMPIRE DIARIES should be renewed because it is obviously The CW’s #1 show, but it’s ratings are slowly dropping! I think this show should end in 2015 after six seasons.

2. SUPERNATURAL should be renewed because it is another show to stick on The CW’s Friday Night, and it is doing pretty decent (CW-standards) on Friday, but I don’t see it going pass Season 8, and Season 9 is possible and probably the final.

3. 90210 should be renewed because it will finish this season with 92 episodes, almost 100 episodes and it’s ratings has been decent (again CW-standards). I think 90210 should end in 2014 after six seasons, but Season 5 could possibly be it’s last.

4. THE SECRET CIRCLE has been doing pretty well after THE VAMPIRE DIAIRES, but now it’s ratings are extremely dropping to .5 range. It seems that it is going in NIKITA’s footstep (if renewed, maybe placed on fridays too!?). I think it should be renewed just because it has some sort of potential.

5. HART OF DIXIE is The CW’s lightest show like some of The WB Classics especially GILMORE GIRLS! I think it should be renewed because it has been able to find its own audience and it has been able to be stable especially behind low rated GOSSIP GIRL (which its ratings has dropped below the 1 million mark). I think HART OF DIXIE could do well for The CW with a little bit more promotion unlike this year, but it’s possible The CW might cancel it.

6. GOSSIP GIRL has been The CW’s favorite! and was a hit once upon a time! Even though I think Season 5 should be it’s lasts, it should be tributed and renewed for a final Season 6 like how ONE TREE HILL was treated!

7. NIKITA was a hit on Thursdays last year but again it’s ratings had declined after THE VAMPIRE DIARIES like how THE SECRET CIRCLE is doing right now! I think this show had its second chance, but didn’t quite make a difference but declined lower with a lot of .4’s, but yet Supernatural is not even that close and it’s BEHIND Nikita. Nikita, in my opinion should be cancelled.

8. Many people thought RINGER would be an instant hit! (I DONT THINK SO). RINGER was the most promoted out of any freshman show on The CW and yet it stilled flopped! This show would have been better on CBS or FOX, just like NIKITA. RINGER is the first show on my cancellation list! Sorry Sarah!

9. and lastly good ole AMERICA’s NEXT TOP MODEL! It is the only show renewed by The CW. It has been doing great for The CW, but has been suddenly affected by “””THE CW INSTANT DROP PHENOMENON!””. ANTM has gotten old and I think it’s about that time to end it after next year or maybe try something new as putting it a summer series! I also think ANTM should move to fridays. hmmmm idk!?

danny94

I dont see how ringer can come back with SMG pregnant, glad to see PP on likely renewel or though i do think that scandal derserves to be there aswell considring it has been one of the most steay shows in a long while

Alex Roggio

I think it’s odd that ABC hasn’t renewed anything. They should have renewed Grey’s Anatomy, Modern Family and Once Upon a Time by now which are coincidentally the only shows I care about on their network.

NBC needs to renew Community, 30 Rock and Parks and Recreation immediately, because if they don’t, I’m going to flip a gasket.

As for CBS, the only show I cared for their is Person of Interest and it has already been renewed. I literally care nothing for the rest of their shows. Why anyone would watch a boring CBS laugh track comedy is beyond me.

danny94

Last man standing should be on the bubble its ratings are awful i’m sure it scored a 1.6 the other week thats not much higher then courgar town

Xavier

Not sure why Alcatraz and The Finder should be Likely to be canceled, rather than Certain to be. I’d put Touch in as a toss-up too.

I’d be happy for them to give Touch or Alcatraz a second attempt — as long as the producers and writers for those shows were fired. But I can’t see why they make good business sense in their current forms.