mweir145 wrote:James Loney in the top 100? Why don't we throw Lyle Overbay and Casey Kotchman in there while we're at it?

Not any more ridiculous that having soon to be 35 year old Jeter with declining power and declining speed. I'd rather have the young guy who still has upside. Loney will have a much better career that Overbay or Kotchman.

Martin still needs to be lower, and McCann should be the first catcher taken.

I would drop Johan and Peavy a few spots with the depth of pitching next year. also I would drop Berkman to the Carlos Lee range while bumping up Fielder and Howard a few spots.

I would consider dropping Carlos Guillen off altogether because most of his value was tied into his SS eligibility. His line of .286 68 R 54 RBI 10 HR 9 SB is not impressive for the corner IF spots.

Pence also need to go much lower. He has actually regressed this year, and while he still has solid potential, I would take Bruce over him.

I would also drop off Kendrick, Chris Young (OF), Jeter, Loney. I would add Upton, Ian Stewart, Joey Votto, and Lastings Milledge. I would take Stewart over Kendrick, Votto over Loney, Upton over Young, and Milledge over Jeter.

I guess I'm confused... why should he Pence down because he's regressed in his second season but move Howard up because he's regressed each of the last two years? I guess I still can't believe people are willing to turn the blind eye to just how overvalued Ryan Howard is. He is Adam Dunn, except he's drafted like 7 rounds earlier.

I believe that it is based on the fact that Howard's ceiling is much much higher than that of Pence. I think Pence at best would be Corey Hart, while Howard's we saw in 2006. And while the comparison to Adam Dunn is merited, Dunn has never hit over .300 like Howard and his highest average .266 is still lower than Howard's 2007 or .268. So while they both rack up tons or ks, Howard's potential is higher than Dunn's, and thus the higher ranking is acceptable. I would take Fielder over Howard, especially in a keeper with Fielder being 5 years younger.

Well if we are simply looking back at two years ago and ignoring his complete regression and increasing gap between his BB's and K's then why don't we move Liriano up to the top pitcher spot? We've seen what his ceiling is, and he hasn't regressed, simply suffered an injury. I appologize that this probably comes as a personal attack against you oddmanout (though it's not meant to be, and I'm glad you are responding civily and clarifying your take... this is more of an attack against those who value Howard as a top 25 let alone 50 player ). I mean, if we are going to play the game of ceiling and seeing what people have done, why not have B.J. Upton ahead of him, I mean he's stealing more bases this year, we saw he's capable of hitting around .300 with 20+ HR's, add those statistics and you are talking about a much better player then Howard... we can play this game of ceilings, but I'd rather weigh more heavily trends and what players have done lately. A players potential and ceiling are certainly important, but it's also important to know that a player can simply have a career year in a certain stat.

I just don't think Howard has done anything over the last two years to illustrate he's capable of hitting anywhere within the vacinity of .300. I believe his .300 season will be an outlier when looking back at his career. I think his ceiling is in the .270's with his unbelievable k rate, and I think that will be incredibly tough to attain. That means his value is solely derived from his power numbers (HR's and RBI's). And as I've stated before, RBI's are a bit of a lucky stat, and can be quite deceiving (much like wins are for pitchers I think). Howard has never contributed in the stolen base category, so that means he's a guy that is a relatively safe bet to finish in the top 50 in runs scored, top 5-10 in HR's, and because he plays in a good ballpark for a good team we'll say he has a better than average chance at posting solid RBI numbers, but nothing else. I won't totally dismiss RBI's as being a useful stat, but I think it is more useful to realize that he's a player that will sabotage a roto (or even H2H for that matter) roster's batting average and contribute 0 in SB's. Personally, I am not a fan of taking a guy who you have to draft so carefully around. Not everyone can be a 5 category player, I'll admit that, but I'd still rather have guys who are 4 cat players who don't contribute in SB's or HR's. Or even 3 category players who don't single handidly kill stats like batting average (a 3 cat guy that comes to mind would be Brian Roberts, a guy who will score runs, steals bases, and contributes in batting average but does not bring much in terms of power numbers to the table. Carlos Guillen is another example, a good batting average guy with solid runs scored and rbi totals but not much in terms of HR's and SB's.).

And to clarify, I am not a fan of another NL East team who is blinded by team loyalty (I'm a Giants fan actually ). Please someone tell me I'm not the only one who sees Ryan Howard as an overrated fantasy player and keeper?

B-Chad wrote:I just don't think Howard has done anything over the last two years to illustrate he's capable of hitting anywhere within the vacinity of .300. I believe his .300 season will be an outlier when looking back at his career. I think his ceiling is in the .270's with his unbelievable k rate, and I think that will be incredibly tough to attain. That means his value is solely derived from his power numbers (HR's and RBI's).

True, I do think the .300+ average Howard finished with probably won't be the norm. The reason why Howard is drafted much higher than Dunn is because of his HR rate. If Jose Reyes' value lies in 60-70 SB, then Howard's lies in the potential for 50 HR, despite the fact that SB is markedly more scarce than HR. The thing that's most disappointing is that Howard's K rate this year has almost canceled out what he can make up for in contact rate while potentially seeing that his average doesn't become a huge liability. That was the main reason for his '06 MVP campaign and the big second half surge last season to see off a disappointing beginning. In contrast, a guy like Ryan Braun hasn't done a massive improvement to his K/BB rate but yet makes great contact enough to cancel it and post a solid HR rate. Despite RBI being a fluky byproduct, his penchant for homeruns still puts him in good position to put 100 in runs and RBI, supported by a very good Phillies offense that has been hit-and-miss more so this year than any other in recent memory.

That said, I do see Howard being justified as a high pick but I can't see him as an early 2nd rounder given that his position is fairly deep and the likes of Carlos Pena has been a greater value despite being an average killer and the slow start.

B-Chad wrote:Not everyone can be a 5 category player, I'll admit that, but I'd still rather have guys who are 4 cat players who don't contribute in SB's or HR's. Or even 3 category players who don't single handidly kill stats like batting average (a 3 cat guy that comes to mind would be Brian Roberts, a guy who will score runs, steals bases, and contributes in batting average but does not bring much in terms of power numbers to the table. Carlos Guillen is another example, a good batting average guy with solid runs scored and rbi totals but not much in terms of HR's and SB's.).

The problem with that is you're still paying a high pick on a Roberts or Guillen which could be used on a player who is more likely to exceed his round and production value. Depends on how comfortable you are in taking on greater reward for X amount of risk.