Friday, September 29, 2017

South Asian Climate Outlook Forum (SASCOF-11)Malé, Maldives, 25-27 September 2017Consensus Statement on the Forecast for the 2017 October to December (OND) Season Rainfall and Temperatures over South AsiaSummaryBelow normal rainfall is most likely during the 2017 OND Season over some parts of SE Peninsular India, north Sri Lanka and some northeastern areas of the region. Above normal is most likely over southeastern part of the region and along the coastal areas adjacent to the north Bay of Bengal. Over remaining areas of the region including northwest and central areas that generally receivevery little rain during the season, rainfall is most likely to be Normal.Normal to slightly above normal temperatures are likely during the 2017 OND Season over most parts of the region.Currently cool neutral ENSO conditions prevail in the Pacific Ocean and these conditions are likely to continue and turn to border line/ weak La Nina conditions in the early next year. It is also recognized that during the 2017 OND season, in the absence of SST forcings from Pacific and Indian oceans, strongintra seasonal features will have larger influence on the climate variability overthe region leading to increased uncertainty in predictions of seasonally averaged rainfall and temperature patterns.The consensus forecast outlook presented here has been developedthrough an expert assessment of the prevailing global climate conditions and forecasts from different climate models from around the world.For more information and further updates on the northeast monsoonoutlook on national scale, the respective National Meteorological andHydrological Services (NMHSs) may be consulted.A separate consensus statement for the winter season (December 2017 toFebruary 2018) will be issued in November 2017.Full Statement in www.vagaries.in