But economists Barry Eichengreen of the University of California at Berkeley, Donghyun Park of the Asian Development Bank and Kwanho Shin of Korea University warn that Beijing shouldn’t start celebrating yet. China’s economy has already downshifted from more than 10% growth in 2010 to about 8% growth now – and another sharp deceleration is likely to occur in a couple of years, they say.

“Our results point to the possibility, but not the certainty, that there will be another step deceleration (in growth) in a few years,” Mr. Eichengreen says.

The three economists made a splash with a 2011 analysis that said fast-growing countries tend to slow down by at least two percentage points once they hit a median GDP per capita of around $15,000 in 2005 dollars – the so-called “middle-income trap” — using purchasing power parity adjustments. (PPP tries to account for different prices of products in different countries.) China would hit that mark in a few years, the economist said.

In a new paper published this month, the three economists refined their estimates and found that growth usually slows in two steps. The first is when a country reaches GDP per capita of around $11,000 in 2005 dollars, roughly where China is now, and at $15,000, roughly where China is likely to be in a couple of years.

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