Mike Gianella: Probably Martinez, definitely Martinez this year due to the park, coaching staff, and division. I think Sanchez can hang, but as we have seen with Martinez sometimes the curve to get to relevancy is longer than you would expect.

Tim (Harlan, KY): 12 team mixed auction league with 4 minor league spots. Moncada goes for 16, Gallo 8, other top guys for similar cash. I call out "Tim Anderson, 1 buck" and crickets. Am i missing something, or is it the boring name? I bet if he was Arquimedes Caminero he would go for 10 bucks, right?

Mike Gianella: It's probably the fact that some of the non-BP sites don't have him ranked as highly. If your league doesn't read us, he could slip.

Len (Jacksonville): Am I right to be resigning myself to zero return on Mat Latos in a dynasty league? Ditto Betances?

Mike Gianella: Maybe not zero, but pretty low in Latos' case. No one is going to touch him until he puts at least 3-4 good starts together. Dellin Betances is different because he was so good so recently, and it seems like he could be "fixed" at some point. However, yes, he is not going to get you a lot back at the moment.

Mike Gianella: I'd want more for Bryant in a dynasty, although maybe not a ton more. I get why you want to do it, but that seems like a lot to give up for a guy at a position where the erosion happens quicker than it does elsewhere.

Mike Gianella: Eric Stephen of True Blue LA (a great Twitter follow, btw) keeps pointing out that Juan Uribe isn't going anywhere in the short term. Guerrero seems stuck on the bench unless there is an injury. The OF is stacked too, so even if the Dodgers wanted to mix and match, there isn't room there either. I'd guess 300-350 PAs for Guerrero. Keep Hunter.

Mike Gianella: My educated guess is Farquhar, but yes I do like Medina as a sleeper candidate if Farquhar couldn't cut it.

Shawn (CT): There's been a lot of hype the past few days around Jimmy Nelson after his 1st start. What are your thoughts on him?

Mike Gianella: Nothing different from what you've probably read too: encouraging to see development of a new pitch, has always had talent, could be a solid #3 with perhaps some #2 upside if everything breaks right.

Mike Gianella: If you're going to drop Moss, go with Souza for the power/speed combo. Depends a lot on your categorical needs. Souza will be better all around, Moss's raw power will trump Souza.

wml2000 (NYC): Thoughts on Giants rotation and when/if we might see Yusmeiro Petit?

Mike Gianella: After Madison Bumgarner it looks really thin, though Jake Peavy and Tim Hudson could certainly surprise us. Chris Heston has shown some velocity improvement and could be better than we were expecting, but I still see him as a back end guy. Tim Lincecum's velo is really down and while the deception is better, I don't trust him much. Who knows when Matt Cain's coming back? I'd love to see Petit in the rotation, but it could be a while if Heston holds up. I'll guess June.

LakeRaMan (San Gabriel): Due to injuries I picked up Miley, Masterson, Dickey and Norris. It's a very deep league. I obviously wasn't pleased with the latest results. Do I move on to the next group or have patience with some of these guys and which ones?

Mike Gianella: I wouldn't, though you certainly can. I think the batting average gap is too much.

Horace (NYC): Mike,
Thanks for the chat!! You guys are the best!! What are your thoughts about Dellin Betances? Is his reduced velocity/control issue simply a mechanics thing or is it likely that there's some underlying injury issue?? Thanks for sharing your thoughts!

Mike Gianella: I suspect it's mechanical, though if he's hiding an injury I'd have no way of knowing. He has shown some signs of throwing faster, so maybe it is mechanical and he's about to turn a corner. Then again, I remember telling myself that years ago with Ubaldo Jimenez and it didn't happen.

DJ (Dallas ): Mike, Is the Rougned Odor move to the top of the lineup an endorsement of his capabilities or simply a lack of qualifications on the part of Andrus and Martin?? How high should we be on Rougy??

Mike Gianella: It's probably a little bit of both, although I think it's more that Elvis Andrus isn't an ideal leadoff guy and Leonys Martin has enough power that they want to push him down. I could see Odor being standard mixed relevant; in only he probably could earn $16-18 at the top end.

Jeremy (Cleveland): 5x5 ROS: Mujica, Medina, or Will Harris? Already have Mujica so would have to cut him and FAAB one of the other two.

Mike Gianella: I'd go with Yoervis Medina, although I wouldn't spend more than $1-2.

John (CT): It's very early but what has been the biggest surprise to you so far this season?

Mike Gianella: The biggest surprise is that I haven't seen as many articles or tweets overreacting to super slow or super fast starts. I feel like in years past people would have been wringing their hands about Giancarlo Stanton but I haven't seen too much of that.

ssauve25 (San Francisco): Whats up, Mike! 12 team deep keeper league. OBP instead of AVG. I moved Kris Bryant for Bogaerts and Polanco. Good or bad? Also, he gave me the choice of Russell or Bogaerts. Was that the right call? Thanks!

Mike Gianella: That seems like a very good deal for you. I like Bryant, but both Bogaerts and Polanco are slightly behind Bryant's ceiling in a worst case scenario. I think you did the right think by taking Bogey. Russell probably has the higher ceiling, but take the guy who can definitely help you now.

Alex (Anaheim): Can you fix my real favorite team too? Seriously though, would you rather pick up Jose Quintana or Alfredo Simon in a 12-team mixed?

Mike Gianella: I don't have enough money.

Quintana, and that's a no brainer. Simon's first two starts looks pretty but that K/9 portends that he won't keep it up.

jonraypyle (TX): AL only auction league. I got stuck near the end of the draft with too much money and not much power left on the board. Ended up getting in a bidding war for Arcia who was the last guy on the board with 20+ HR potential and spent $20 on him. when you over pay for a player who has a slow start does it make you more or less likely to want to drop and replace him?

Mike Gianella: It shouldn't really matter what you spent. Don't make a mistake in either direction because of something "bad" you did at the draft or auction.

cracker73 (Florida): Jonathan Schoop is off to a good start. What are your thoughts on him? What are the chances for a breakout year and what is his upside?

Mike Gianella: If he can make better contact, he could be a .250/20 HR guy. He was kind of rushed through the system and his defense makes him playable now so they'll run him out there unless he hits .180. I see some growth here, though, and a .240 with 15 HR isn't unrealistic.

DanDaMan (Sea Cliff): I know it's early, but given last year's workload and the very poor start this year, are you worried at all about Bumgarner?

Mike Gianella: I'm slightly concerned, but no more than I was entering the season. I suspect that if there are issues, they will manifest themselves in the long term and not just this year.

Mike Gianella: Somewhat, but it seems like you have enough depth that you can ride it out...and Corey Kluber seems like an anchor guy.

Ian (Atlanta): What's your expected home run total for Arenado?

Mike Gianella: 25-30 if he's healthy?

Wayne (Houston): Concerned about Michael Brantley's back? Should I be trying to sell in a dynasty?

Mike Gianella: Back injuries always concern me somewhat. That being said, he's not a big time power guy so the concerns aren't as high as they would be for bopper. You can try to sell but you're going to be getting 75 cents or less on your dollar.

Alan (Savannah): How predictable is RBI totals? I drafted Freddie Freeman at a decent value in a points league that values R/RBI, and I'm just trying to figure out what to expect.

Mike Gianella: What's funny about RBI is that they're somewhat predictable in that a good hitter is more likely to drive in runs than a bad hitter. We always focus on the lineup, but guys like Freeman will get their knocks. I'd bump him down about a round or two worth of value, but he should only miss 15-20 runs and RBI on the high end.

Ryan (New York): Are you buying Brian McCann in a 12-team league? He just keeps struggling.

Mike Gianella: In a one catcher league? No. I was skeptical about him entering the season and think his problems go beyond adjusting to the AL.

Mike Gianella: Castro. Ruiz is probably safer, but given his age and the lineup around him the ceiling is very low.

Joel Nickels (IN): The TINO guys talked about patience in the fantasy game. Not many players have it. What is your patience level in roto? Do you play H2H? And if you do, is your patience level different? Any best practices to teach us? Thanks FFF is a great listen!

Mike Gianella: I'm very patient, but then I play in a lot of very deep leagues where you don't have much of a choice. In standard mixed I try to balance patience with gauging any discernible changes in a player's game, which is admittedly tough.

I don't play H2H.

As far as best practices, you definitely want to try to keep up on specific changes in a player or team as opposed to just reacting to a small sample of stats. I try to keep as informed as possible.

jonraypyle (tx): Rule quesion. a league i joined last year has no waver system and lineups lock at first pitch of the first game that day. rosters are small so not many players that anyone wants to drop. 2 or 3 teams have started picking up a pitcher 1 minute before rosters lock and immediatley drom him for the same guy who was already on his roster. Allowing them to get a streamer without anyone having a chance at picking up the player they were droping. this is bush league no?

Mike Gianella: I agree that it's terrible, but if that's the rule you're probably stuck with it.

ssauve25 (Here): What missing tool concerns you the most as far as a player not reaching full development? It seems to me that the hit tool is something a player never learns. He either has it or he doesn't. Just my perception, no actual data to confirm it.

Mike Gianella: I think you hit the nail on the head. I think back to Michael Jordan trying to hit a baseball. Kenny Lofton quit baseball for awhile and started again in college. He said that if he had waited another year he doesn't think he could have done it (hit a baseball). The elites make it look so normal but it's next to impossible to do.

John (CT): Mike, Who wins the closers job in Detroit or do they trade for Papelbon?

sdsuphilip (San Diego): I like having Justin Upton on my favorite team.

Mike Gianella: I would too.

ssauve25 (San Francisco): Thanks for answering Re: Bryant for Bogey/Polanco. Follow up, your assesment on Bogey over Russell: Is that because you think Russell has the better offense or do you think Russell is more likely to stick at short? Thanks again.

Mike Gianella: I think it's more the offense for Russell, or at least the ceiling.

Eric (Chico State): Hey Mike, thank you for the Chat. Keeper league and I need power. Looking to move Altuve, Arrietta, and Josh Bell (Or DJ Peterson, but i'm going with Bell) for Donaldson and Desmond. Thoughts? How many more years we have out of Desmond at Short? Thank you!

Mike Gianella: That seems like a lot to give up for those guys. Desmond will probably stay at short until he's 29 or 30.

Sammy Kalifa (Short): What is your stance on the DH?
Does it change looking at it as just a baseball fan vs as a fantasy analyst?

Mike Gianella: I hated it when I was a kid, but now I feel like "yeah, whatever, doesn't matter" and I'm glad that it allows certain players like Edgar Martinez to keep playing.

Not really, no.

Bart Bennison (The edge): What do you think is the next evolution or phase in fantasy?
(Excluding daily stuff)
6x6, advanced metric categories, deeper or only leagues, more dynasty leagues, etc...

Mike Gianella: I think you'll see more OBP leagues. I think daily leagues will take even more of a hold and the casual standard mixed leagues will take a hit. 6x6 and advanced metric stuff will exist, but I don't ever see them becoming the norm.

Sparkles (San Francisco): I think ssauve25 is going to be quite disappointed when Bryant leads the league in HRs for the foreseeable future, hitting more than Polanco and Bogaerts combined.

Mike Gianella: Life is about nothing if not learning soul crushing disappointment.

JT Smooth (Loveboat ): Who are some deeper high K/9 relievers that could provide value in a holds league?

Jacob (Los Angeles): Two starts in: thoughts on Tanaka? His second start didn't seem to do much to alleviate concerns.

Mike Gianella: He's already working to adjust for diminished velocity and from the (admittedly limited) glimpses I have seen he doesn't look comfortable. Maybe he eventually will, but I'm not buying. I'm still guessing that he has to get the surgery 12-15 starts into this.

James (The Attic): Mike, is what we've seen out of Jon Lester so far this season the new new Lester going forward? Also, do you think Oswaldo Arcia manages to live up to some of the prospect hype this season or should I just move on in a deep keeper league?

Mike Gianella: I doubt it, although I would like to see a decent start after this dead arm period. I do think that he's more likely to be the very good starter he was with Boston as opposed to the great starter he was last year with BOS/OAK.

I think the power will come for Arcia, just don't know if the BA ever will. In a deep league, hang on.

sdsuphilip (San Diego): On the relievers question, would not be surprised if Kelley is optioned down if he doesn't turn it around soon, at the least he isn't 7th inning guy anymore, quackenbush in minors.

Mike Gianella: Possibly. Relievers are such a crapshoot.

Where the heck did that term come from anyway? Did they used to shoot crap with bows and arrows in medieval times?

John (CT): Does JJ Hardy return to full strength? Seems as if shoulder issues have changed his game. Think the O's Cabrera can stick at short?

Mike Gianella: I think he comes back but I see more 10-15 HR power than 20-25. Cabrera could stick there, but Hardy's contract obviously makes him first choice.

Drunk uncle (Duke's bar): Thoughts on the league setups (I know one expert league uses this) with a flex spot that could be a pitcher or UT?

Mike Gianella: I'm in Tout Wars and they use this. In mixed you're better off using the hitter there. In only the pitcher is probably better unless your offense is stacked. I like using it to address categorical needs in season; in my best year in Tout in 2013 I had a ton of offense and went 13 hitters and 10 pitchers for the last two months.

John (Doe): Dahl or Mazara?

Mike Gianella: A better question for the prospect folks, but predictable boring me likes Mazara at the moment. That could change in two months. They're certainly close.

EricJ (SF): Where do you see Lindor getting drafted at his peak? (single season)

Mike Gianella: Third or fourth round in a 15-team mixed.

Gabe (The quickening): The next closer to lose his job is...?
Next pitcher to get tommy-John is...?

Impossible to guess. Mat Latos would seem like the guess if he didn't already have a separate, known issue.

EricJ (SF): I know the BP prospect team is down on Jake Lamb, is his performance unsustainable? ie should I be shopping him?

Mike Gianella: I like him better than they do (I guess; I haven't read what you're referencing). He's probably not going to hit 25-30 home runs, but 20 isn't out of the question even if the BA is low. I guess if people are expecting Ryan Zimmerman 2.0 in your league you should shop him, otherwise hang on. Yasmany Tomas isn't replacing him.

Jeff King (3rd base): Projecting major league players, let alone teenagers who have yet to physically mature, is incredibly difficult. How will this evolve, and increase accuracy in the future as the sport (and all sports) get more driven by metrics and science?

Mike Gianella: My colleague Russell Carlton has written about psychological analysis and that's probably an area where teams will try to do more. I think you'll see even more technology look at swings, pitching motions, etc. that I can't even imagine now.

EricJ (Unknown): Is there anyone that's getting drafted 5th or later ADP that you expect to jump into the first round next year (not rookies, we all know Ssauve is going to gouge his eyes out next year after Bryant turns fastballs into wine)

Mike Gianella: You mean 5th round? Jason Kipnis if he's healthy. Mookie Betts if he can hold some of that power. Probably not in either case, but so hard to predict.

Jacob Brumfield (Center ): It seems in dynasty leagues (and deep leagues in general) prospect hype and general knowledge keeps increasing as data and coverage increases.
Top 100 overall and team top 10 names are much more generally known by casual baseball fans let alone fantasy players.
Should those trying to be a step ahead, scour for younger projectible players? Or just learn which expert/analyst to trust more?

Mike Gianella: You can try to analyze the analysts but even that's inexact. I think the knowledge is increasing but the accuracy not necessarily so. I analyzed this a couple of years ago for BP and there is still some scatter shot in terms of hitting the mark. The thing to do is try to figure out who will produce in Roto versus who the name is. Mookie Betts is a good example: he wasn't really viewed as a big time prospect as couple of years ago but he can play ball. Sometimes looking past the obvious offensive fantasy profile pays.

phin82 (MKE): Do you think Richards picks up where he left off last year and is again a top 20 SP?

Mike Gianella: Yes, or top 25. He's really good and that's not an arm injury. However, losing Howie Kendrick's defense hurts a little.

Mike Gianella: maybe, but this could work the other way. Stammen was really good at keeping other guys from going for long stretches, and this could stretch out the pen. Tanner Roark seems like the guy who would get a boost.

Mike Gianella: I tend to look at organizations as a whole. The Cardinals seem to do both well. Something hard here is that some teams draft well while some develop. The Pirates pitching plan I dig, the Cubs hitting plan but I don't know how much of this is the players they have and how much is the development.

Shawn (CT): What are your thoughts on Alex Wood? He's been alright but the control hasn't been great. Plus he's got the crazy delivery

Mike Gianella: Great stuff, loads of potential, the delivery as you mention gets me really nervous. I see him as a 170-180 inning guy who could put up a 3.00 or a 3.20 ERA.

Silverback38 (VA): Do you have any concern for Taijuan Walker? He is great during spring training, terrible during regular season.

Mike Gianella: Yes, but every rookie pitcher should generate concern. He could turn it around but he could spend half a year or a whole year struggling.

Craiguest (LA): Who are the sleeper pitchers this year, Greene, Nick Martinez,, ?????????

Keith Osik (Squatting): Thoughts on prospects who are in systems where the major league club is more likely to sign/trade for a vet or star than give shots to rookies unless studs?
ie- LA gives Joc a chance, but likely not A Guererro , Wsh with guys like Roark, Cole, T Jordan.
Should we de-value those prospects or just hope for trades?

Mike Gianella: You have to devalue them somewhat, yes. A guy like Aaron Judge or Greg Bird also gets knocked down given the Yankees history with young players as well.

Roger Dorn (Cleveland): Better fantasy prospect: Frazier or Meadows?

Mike Gianella: Probably Frazier for fantasy.

Jonas (Chico): Is Arismendy Alcantara worth holding onto in a deep keeper? That multi-positional is so sexy expect he hasn't yet gotten the memo to be the Latin Zobrist at the plate.

Mike Gianella: Yes. I still like him a lot, and the power/speed combo is worth your time. He'll eventually hit, even if the BA is never great.

Shelby (IN): If Melancon is hurt, who is the next in line to grab for fantasy?
Caminero?

Mike Gianella: Yes. Throwing crazy hard and looking like yet another long line in Ray Searage success stories.

Erik (Las Vegas): Castellanos has hit everywhere. Is he still find in his groove so he can take advantage of this awesome lineup?

Mike Gianella: He will. I don't see him as a big time power threat, but he'll hit for enough power and do enough of everything else t.o provide value

Kevin Polovich (Plucky white utility guy): Colorado pitchers and pitching prospects are severely down-graded in fantasy.
Some formats allow for streaming, but deep leagues can't as easily.
Thoughts on valuing Rockie young pitchers for fantasy? And in dynasty leagues do the younger pitchers get a boost due to hopefully getting traded? (Though they likely will never trade their good young pitching)
Freeland wasn't even drafted in my NL dynasty 12tm, 37man rosters.

Mike Gianella: I'm in the minority on the staff, but I really don't like them. Eddie Butler's ground ball profile makes him interesting, but pitching at altitude for half a season seems to wear these guys down. You can try to take the young guys with that rationale, but the problem is that if the Rockies are bad, they're not going to trade their young guys, and they probably need Cargo and Tulo to be healthy for 150 games to contend, which seems really unlikely.

Miguel (Virginia Beach): What is the fantasy upside and reality of Taillon when he fully returns?

Mike Gianella: #2 is probably the upside. #3-4 seems more realistic. This is an ask again later question according to my Magic 8-Ball.

James (SFO): Do you see either Raul Mondesi or Conforto being fantasy viable over the next three seasons, and if so how much upside if any? Deep dynasty OBP league. (Is it obvious I'm regretting my prospects draft already?)

Mike Gianella: Viable in deeper leagues toward the end of that time frame. I think Conforto could be a back end starter in mixed while Mondesi could be a little better. This assumes that EVERYTHING breaks for these guys.

Blas Minor (Soaking up innings): Will the NL ever adopt the DH? If so, when?
And will there ever be another 2-sport star in major sports?

Mike Gianella: At some point, I think they will, but we could be talking another 10-15 years.

I doubt it, just because there's so much money now in each sport that it doesn't make sense for the next two sport guy to risk injury in one sport and kill his earning potential in another.

Eugene (OR): I can trade for Profar but he is obviously recovering....how concerned should I be having him lock up a MiLB spot? Will he ever be his old self?

Mike Gianella: Depends on the league's depth, but I think he can still do something. That being said, he should probably spend some time in the minors and it could be 2017 until he's relevant. 20 team dynasty? Hold. 15-team mixed? Drop.

Nats fan (DC): Is Reynaldo Lopes just a dude in your mind or something more special?

Mike Gianella: Great stuff, great potential, would like to see more in terms of minor league results before I commit either way.

Stadium treats guy (At all counters): Is Heston here to stay in the rotation?

Mike Gianella: For the next month or so at least, yes.

Tony (SD): What's up with Strasburg? He's getting lit up like a Strasmas tree. Assuming that's a thing

Mike Gianella: A lot of the peripherals look the same. He's getting BABIPed to death and the second string defense behind him hasn't helped.

Mike Gianella: the latter, unless by fantasy you're talking about that game that Upton is promoting that pops up on my bleeping phone every five seconds

Warren Morris (Living off my LSU fame): I love the new BP sub-sites that are team specific.
If there was a way to leverage more local info and insights, it could be a good fantasy edge. A smart local fantasy player will always know more about his local team than the national pundit.
How else could BP use this to provide an edge?

Mike Gianella: I emphatically agree. In the early days of the SB Nation sites, I used them a lot to my advantage when there were strong writers like Jeff Sullivan writing there and no one knew who they were. I don't know what the long term game plan is, but more of these sites are coming. And you're right; a strong core of local knowledge trumps national stuff for tidbits.

John Cangelosi (Short and speedy): What is your (and others at BP) fav type of chat questions?
Short and can reply with few words?
Thought provoking?
Conversational playing off earlier questions?
Seems at BP, and other sites, non fantasy analysts really don't like fantasy questions.

Mike Gianella: I like questions that really involve tactics and strategy as opposed to player A or player B type questions. Like if you're thinking about dumping saves and going for power, that's interesting. The A/B stuff is really just my opinion and I can't teach anything. I like teaching people on these things. I know that might sound silly or corny, but it's true. That's what I did at my old blog in my pre-BP days. I want you guys to learn to fish even though I most certainly can hand you the fish.

Philips (Atlanta): T. Walker for TJ House for this year only, which side?

Mike Gianella: Still Walker for me, but House is probably safer.

Orlando Merced (Clemente's porch): Who is the next big star at 1st base, who is currently in minors?
(Doesn't matter what he plays in minors)

Mike Gianella: Josh Bell or Maikel Franco. I know Franco can play third but I think by the time the bat plays at the "star" level he's at first.

ssauve25 (San Francisco): Can you cross quantitate stats? If you're making a trade can you say X home runs is worth X quality starts and K's?

Mike Gianella: you can try. the problem is that the valuation of stats works in a broad sense; when you try to make it league specific it can fall apart quite easily. so if a save is worth X and a HR is worth Y it doesn't matter if in a context specific environment you need the saves more.

Mike Gianella: This was great guys. Almost 90 questions. You brought your A game. I'll see you next time.