Granted all issues with oil come to an end (yes!...wishful thinking!). What is going to happen with coverage to Souh America? I bet we will see CO/UA codeshare, but would there be any expansion? Places like SCL, MVD, are not covered by either carrier anymore. Will CO push harder this time to open more cities in the area?

United, in South America, serves (not including Central American and Carribean destinations):

From ORD:
Sao Paulo / Rio de Janeiro

From IAD:
Sao Paulo / Rio de Janeiro
Buenos Aires

In my opinion, I believe the new UA/CO alliance will allow both carriers to more efficiently coordinate their South American schedules. Continental is probably more poised for any future increases in frequencies on existing routes and/or any new destinations to be opened such as Santiago de Chile and Montevideo - UA taking the back seat in terms of S.American expansion. Continental is the better choice because of its already existing extensive network into South America (relative to that of UA), as well as the geographical location of the IAH hub, which would serve as a more logical transfer point from all points in the USA and into South America.

On UA's side would be any streamlining or expansion into the Far East due to its LAX and SFO hubs which are the logical transfer points from all points in mainland USA.

Furthermore, CO's EWR hub, would allow the new alliance to capitalize on the New York area population for additional frequencies into South America - making IAH the primary South American gateway of the new alliance, with EWR the secondary one, followed by IAD and ORD (which would connect well into the EWR hub - therefore making them a bit of a stretch for potential future developments).

Also, with the arrival of TAM into the Star Alliance soon (it's not official, but let's face it - it's probably in the bag already), Sao Paulo becomes the prime gateway to Rio de Janeiro, Buenos Aires, Montevideo, Santiago de Chile, and all other Brazilian, Argentinian, Uruguayan and Chilean destinations... Consequently, Sao Paulo can technically be justified as the new alliance's only destination in the Southern part of South America - using TAM as a feeder/connector to all other markets. As a matter of fact, I see Rio de Janeiro disappearing off the networks of CO and UA - eventually served as a codeshare by TAM aircraft.

Quoting Qazar (Reply 2):
Also, with the arrival of TAM into the Star Alliance soon (it's not official, but let's face it - it's probably in the bag already), Sao Paulo becomes the prime gateway to Rio de Janeiro, Buenos Aires, Montevideo, Santiago de Chile, and all other Brazilian, Argentinian, Uruguayan and Chilean destinations... Consequently, Sao Paulo can technically be justified as the new alliance's only destination in the Southern part of South America - using TAM as a feeder/connector to all other markets. As a matter of fact, I see Rio de Janeiro disappearing off the networks of CO and UA - eventually served as a codeshare by TAM aircraft.

You must be out of your mind! If Star Alliance carriers ever tried such a suicidal move, OneWorld and Skyteam would divide and conquer South America in no time and more than they already do. GRU is in no shape to receive expansion of any kind and it will grow very slowly from now on. CO's market at IAH is very dependable on GIG. If CO ever pulled out of GIG, it would have to quickly look for alternatives, since passengers would migrate to DL and connect at ATL like many already do.
TAM has extensive problems in offering connections at GRU. They have to learn how to cater to partners. It's become very common for passengers to purchase two tickets, one for the domestic flight and another for the international one, when the trip involves carriers other than TAM. People think that connecting at GRU is seamless, but it really isn't.

Quoting Qazar (Reply 2):Continental is probably more poised for any future increases in frequencies on existing routes and/or any new destinations to be opened such as Santiago de Chile and Montevideo - UA taking the back seat in terms of S.American expansion.

I agree that CO is better-positioned to expand in South America, but I'm not sure either SCL or MVD is in the cards. SCL seems pretty saturated. DL's experiment with additional weekly frequencies in the high season wasn't exactly a rousing success (and oil cost 1/3 of what it does now), and DFW-SCL is only a fair performer. MVD has less service, but it's not a large market. If DL can't make MVD-ATL work, I can't see UA or CO doing it from one of their hubs.

I think this analysis shouldn't stop merely at CO and UA. From the CO/UA/Star press release:

"Antitrust Immunized Joint Ventures

Joint ventures are also planned for the Latin America and Asia/Pacific regions, involving Continental, United and other members of the Star Alliance. Both antitrust immunity and code-sharing are subject to receipt of approvals from applicable national authorities."

I can easily see a Latin America joint venture including CO, UA, AC, US (if still around), TP, JK, and even LH.

Quoting PU752 (Reply 8):what I could expect and could work is a MVD-ATL seasonal.

It might, though MVD is a tough market for a carrier like DL because they'd have to devote 2 aircraft to the route to have a competitive schedule. UA had the EZE-MVD tag for a while, and I wonder if DL might try a tag to MVD after they start JFK-EZE (I suspect ATL-EZE performs well enough that a tag would be foolish right now).

Quoting Qazar (Reply 2):Continental, in South America, serves (not including Central American and Caribbean destinations):

From IAH:
Sao Paulo
Rio de Janeiro
Buenos Aires
Lima
Quito
Guayaquil

COIAH-GYE will be dropped on September 02nd.

.

Quoting Qazar (Reply 2):Sao Paulo can technically be justified as the new alliance's only destination in the Southern part of South America - using TAM as a feeder/connector to all other markets. As a matter of fact, I see Rio de Janeiro disappearing off the networks of CO and UA - eventually served as a codeshare by TAM aircraft.

JJ currently code-shares with UA their flights from Brazil to the US bound.

.

Quoting Cubsrule (Reply 5):CO is better-positioned to expand in South America

CO has expanded its code-share coverage with CM into South America.
As a matter of fact, CMPTY-SCL, CMPTY-EZE, CMPTY-LIM and CMPTY-COR -among others- sustain cooperation with CO.

AA loads out of MVD are good but any reduction in numbers by splitting the market between two carriers would not work. AA also has the support of its EZE operation... crew base, cargo, and maintenance.
Eg: Last week MIA-MVD was not able to land and diverted to EZE, when they arrived another 763 had been fueled and staffed with a new crew. They transferred passengers and cargo and hoped over to MVD.

UA had a very loyal following and they couldn't make it work.

I dont see any other carrier being able to make it work without killing off the other. With AA's brand recognition it just wouldn't work. Unless of course Pluna was able to give it a whirl.

United needs to fly to GRU and EZE from at least IAD because these are the type of Metro areas world wide demand exists for from their premuim FF. UA and Coninental should be able to do GRu from EWR, IAH and IAD & EZE from IAH and one east coast point. Brazil and Argentina are the two biggest markets in Deep South America.

Quoting Jfk777 (Reply 14):United needs to fly to GRU and EZE from at least IAD because these are the type of Metro areas world wide demand exists for from their premuim FF. UA and Coninental should be able to do GRu from EWR, IAH and IAD & EZE from IAH and one east coast point. Brazil and Argentina are the two biggest markets in Deep South America.

AA seems to be the only one the only one to do montevideo from the USA. This works with the big EZE operations next door for support. Delta or Continenal to IAH or ATL seems a stretch. Its like Air France or Lufthansa flying to CDG or FRA, there is a reason only IB flies from MVD to Europe.

Quoting Jfk777 (Reply 18):AA seems to be the only one the only one to do montevideo from the USA. This works with the big EZE operations next door for support. Delta or Continenal to IAH or ATL seems a stretch. Its like Air France or Lufthansa flying to CDG or FRA, there is a reason only IB flies from MVD to Europe

American Airlines Buenos Aires flight have only a little to do with American Airlines Montevideo flights for the most part. Montevideo is flown nonstop from Miami with a 767-300 3x per week. Aside from the existing 1 stop service via Buenos Aires.