Tuesday, December 02, 2008

NFC Playoff Picture - Week 13 wrap up

So now the NFC playoff picture begins to unfold. Or begins to clutter depending on your point of view. The key for many teams: just keep winning. Others like Washington, Minnesota, Philadelphia need help. Not like Detroit-Lions-help, but just a few key losses here and there.

Looking at NFL.com, they have the current playoff standings listed 1. NYG 2. TB 3. ARZ 4. MIN 5. CAR 6. ATL. Both Atlanta and Dallas have an 8-4 record, and based on the NFL tiebreaking procedures, the Falcons currently hold the sixth and final NFC playoff berth.

The tiebreaking steps as it applies to the Falcons and Cowboys thru 13 weeks (12 games) of the 2008 season:Step 1: Head-to-head (if applicable)The Cowboys and Falcons are not scheduled to play during the 2008 regular season. So we must go to...

Step 2: Best won-lost-tied percentage in game played within the conferenceSo far this year, Dallas is 6-4 in the NFC while the Falcons are 5-3. That gives Atlanta a .625 winning percentage over the Dallas' .600. It didn't take us any more than Step 2 to determine the Falcons are currently the sixth seed while the Cowboys are on the outside looking in.

Tiebreakers are always a big topic of discussion as the NFL season dwindles down. So fascinating. All the little details of who beat whom, and what their record is can make all the difference. I still remember Carolina and Green Bay each running up the score of their respective 1999 regular season finales to gain an edge in conference point rankings (in the end the Cowboys and Lions made the playoffs thanks to preliminary tiebreakers).

After the Eagles plastered the Cardinals at home on Thanksgiving night, perhaps we should include Philly in our playoff spotlight. Focusing on the top 11 NFC teams, let's see the remaining schedule for each team, who has the easiest road to the playoffs, and how this could shake out.

Because the wild card picture is the most cluttered, let's focus on breaking ties at the Wild Card level for now. Considering two divisions (East, West) are all but wrapped up and the South and North are still hotly contested, the final two spots are the one that require the most breakdown. I'll be excluding the Giants and Cardinals from this as both teams appear to be well in control of their respective divisions - and frankly it's just less math to deal with.

Here are the 11 steps for breaking a tie between two wild card contenders:

For this exercise, we'll be ignoring the head-to-head step as it takes a simple glance at the regular season to solve. We're digging deeper. First, the best W-L-T percentage in the conference.

W-L-T percentage in NFC

Team

TB

CHI

CAR

ATL

DAL

WAS

MIN

PHI

NO

NFCW-L-T

8-2

5-4

6-3

5-3

6-4

6-4

5-3

5-4

3-5

%

.800

.556

.667

.625

.600

.600

.625

.556

.375

Rank

1

T-7

2

T-3

T-5

T-5

T-3

T-7

9

The next step, best won-lost-tied percentage in common games we will skip for two reasons. First, we won't know which two teams to analyze when it comes to common opponents, and secondly because even if we had two teams, they might not have the requisite four games to apply this tiebreaker. Thus, we press onward.

Strength of VictoryThis tiebreaker is used to determine the caliber of opponents a team beat throughout the season. If a team racks up a monster record but does it against pansies, they would lose this tiebreaker to a team with the same record who beat tougher opponents. This is really where things start to get technical.

Team

TB

CHI

CAR

ATL

DAL

WAS

MIN

PHI

NO

BeatenTeams

ATLCHIGBCARSEAKCMINDETNO

INDPHIDETMINDETSTL

SDCHIATLKCNOARIOAKDETGB

DETKCGBCHIOAKNOCARSD

CLEPHIGBCINTBWASSFSEA

NOARIDALPHICLEDETSEA

CARNODETHOUGBJACCHI

STLPITSFATLSEACIN*ARI

DENSFOAKSDKCGB

BeatenTeams'Record

45-63

23-48-1

41-67

35-61

38-56-2

33-50-1

35-49

33-50-1

25-47

%

.417

.326

.380

.365

.406

.393

.417

.393

.347

Rank

T-1

9

6

7

3

T-4

T-1

T-4

8

*Ties in the NFL count as a half-win and half-loss, therefore the Eagles tie against the Bengals will be counted as half of a win and the game is counted in their strength of victory.

Strength of ScheduleThis is similar to strength of victory except it includes the records of all the teams played, not just the teams defeated. Listed are the teams played (italics indicates loss), their combined record and winning percentage, followed by the rankings of where each team falls in this particular tiebreaker.

Team

TB

CHI

CAR

ATL

DAL

WAS

MIN

PHI

NO

TeamsPlayedin2008

NOATLCHIGBDENCARSEADALKCMINDETNO

INDCARTBPHIDETATLMINDETTENGBSTLMIN

SDCHIMINATLKCTBNOARIOAKDETATLGB

DETTBKCCARGBCHIPHIOAKNODENCARSD

CLEPHIGBWASCINARISTLTBNYGWASSFSEA

NYGNOARIDALPHISTLCLEDETPITDALSEANYG

GBINDCARTENNODETCHIHOUGBTBJACCHI

STLDALPITCHIWASSFATLSEANYGCIN*BALARI

TBWASDENSFMINOAKCARSDATLKCGBTB

Opp.Record

66-78

72-71-1

65-79

66-77-1

65-77-2

74-69-1

74-60

73-70-1

74-70

%

.458

.503

.451

.462

.458

.517

.514

.510

.514

Rank

T-7

5

9

6

T-7

1

T-2

4

T-2

Strength of schedule really illuminates the road each team traveled during the regular season. It's a tiebreaker that the NFL must use every so often when teams log-jam the standings around 8-8. Usually this ends of favoring the teams in a division which plays the toughest division. This season teams in the NFC West are playing the NFC East, and because three teams in the West are severely struggling, that is reflected in the overall winning percentage of the opponents of NFC East teams.

With this formula, however, opponents that have not yet been played (Week 14-17 opponents) have not yet been factored in. A team like Washington with a .517 opponent winning percentage will likely see that number fall significantly after games against Cincinnati and San Francisco.

Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowedI know what you're thinking: what does that even mean? How could anyone ever know that? That's what I'm here for. Here's the breakdown of how these tangled up teams currently rank when it comes to putting up points and preventing teams from scoring.

Team

TB

CHI

CAR

ATL

DAL

WAS

MIN

PHI

NO

OffensivePointsScored

280

281

285

298

299

208

287

319

337

NFC Rank

11

10

9

7

6

14

8

5

3

DefensivePointsAllowed

200

268

231

242

260

222

260

249

301

NFC Rank

1

9

4

5

T-7

3

T-7

6

11

CombinedRanking

12

19

13

12

13

17

15

11

12

Who comesout ahead

T-2

9

T-5

T-2

T-5

8

7

1

T-2

Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowedAs you can see from the above tiebreaker, it's very easy for several teams to end up tied within a conference with similar combined rankings, especially when you consider that it's really the teams at the top of the conference who are being looked at. At this point, it's time to bring in the entire NFL into the mix to determine whose rankings are the best.

Team

TB

CHI

CAR

ATL

DAL

WAS

MIN

PHI

NO

OffensivePointsScored

280

281

285

298

299

208

287

319

337

NFL Rank

17

16

14

9

8

28

13

6

4

DefensivePointsAllowed

200

268

231

242

260

222

260

249

301

NFL Rank

4

18

7

8

T-15

6

T-15

10

23

CombinedRanking

21

34

21

17

23

34

28

16

27

Who comesout ahead

T-3

T-8

T-3

2

5

T-8

7

1

6

Best net points in conference games.We're getting farther and farther down the list of tiebreakers. By this points, it's extremely rare that two teams remain tied. However, this is simply an exercise to see which teams come out ahead in each category. Now it's time to check net points (Net = Offensive Pts - Defensive Pts).

Team

TB

CHI

CAR

ATL

DAL

WAS

MIN

PHI

NO

PointsScored vs.NFC

237

244

208

214

240

180

197

284

204

PointsAllowed vs.NFC

157

234

201

212

228

188

179

194

212

Net

+80

+10

+7

+2

+12

-8

+18

+90

-8

TiebreakerRank

2

5

6

7

4

T-8

3

1

T-8

Best net points in all games.It's only fair to judge a team's body of work against its conference before looking at how it did against the entire NFL. Take a team that gets to play interconference games against the other conference's weakest division (*cough* AFC West *cough*) compared to teams that must play against AFC East opponents. That's why this tiebreaker is so far down the list.

Just take a look at the point differentials of teams like Carolina, Atlanta and New Orleans who each saw their net points skyrocket when taking into account the entire NFL. That's because this season the NFC South played the AFC West. Note: the NFC West is playing the AFC East which could explain why Buffalo, New England, Miami and the Jets are all doing so well this year. It's not the only reason, but it certainly helps.

Team

TB

CHI

CAR

ATL

DAL

WAS

MIN

PHI

NO

TotalPointsScored

280

281

285

298

299

208

287

319

337

TotalPointsAllowed

200

268

231

242

260

222

260

249

301

Net

+80

+13

+54

+56

+39

-14

+27

+70

+36

TiebreakerRanking

1

8

4

3

5

9

7

2

6

Best net touchdowns in all games.This is the final tiebreaker that has anything to do with football played on the field. After this, it comes down to a coin flip. Could you imagine the whole coin flip debacle from Thanksgiving 1998 going down as the final tiebreaker for a playoff spot??? Wouldn't you have to watch? It'd be the most intense coin flip ever - until of course we see overtime in the Super Bowl.

Consider this fact about the net touchdowns tiebreaker. Lets say two teams play each other and tie in the head-to-head (are you listening, Donovan, it's possible), 21-21. Team A scores 21 by kicking seven field goals. Team B finds the end zone three times. If it got down to this tiebreaker, Team B is going to really enjoy how that tie came about. Here are the net TD numbers: