'How To Train Your Dragon' Doesn't Fly As High As 'Monsters v Aliens'; 'Alice' Still Hot; 'Hot Tub Time Machine' Only Lukewarm

SATURDAY PM/SUNDAY AM: Here are updated weekend box office figures from my sources. But the real story is that, for months now, Hollywood studios have been waging war behind the scenes to book North American 3D theaters for runs starting March 26th and continuing through Easter Sunday on April 4th. Yes, there are more 3D theaters than ever. But the recession slowed down the growth of 3D screens just as Hollywood picked up the pace for 3D films.

For instance, Warner Bros’ Clash Of The Titans was supposed to open this weekend in 2D. Instead, it’s opening next weekend in 3D, putting it on a collision course with Disney’s Alice in Wonderland 3D, still playing strong, and this weekend’s newcomer How To Train Your Dragon 3D from DreamWorks Animation and distributed by Paramount, and even Avatar is still in cinemas. “It’s unprecedented to have 3 wide release 3D films in 5 weeks. So everyone is fighting for their share,” one studio mogul observed to me. “It’s nasty. There’s just one too many 3D films in the marketplace,” another exec said to me. Paramount and Disney really went mano a mano for this weekend’s 3D plays, and Dragon ended up with 2,178 3D locations, including 185 IMAX theaters, or about the same number that Disney had opening Alice four weekends ago when it was only up against Avatar. That’s miraculous. In turn, Warner Bros, despite fighting hard, will end up with several hundred less 3D screens for Titans over Easter.

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With Easter coming up, Dragon should do alright for a few more weeks

Even rival studios readily acknowledge that DreamWorks Animation’s Jeffrey Katzenberg had one of his best films in years coming out this weekend. “It’s exciting, adventurous, emotional,” one competitor gushed. “But it’s been tracking badly.” That’s because the pic lacked comedy, unlike DA’s previous hits Kung Fu Panda and Monsters v Aliens. (Those often annoying wisecracks written into so many DA movies are real crowd pleasers.)

So Dragon finished its opening weekend with a $16M drop from Monsters v Aliens which debuted the same time last year. This, even though both pics commanded higher 3D ticket prices, and Paramount distributed Dragon to more 3D theaters. (Dragon‘s studios kept wanting to compare the pic not to its own MvA but to Sony’s 3D Cloudy With A Chance Of Meatballs, which opened with $30M in September also to great reviews. It’s the box office game of managing expectations.) Still, with 97% positive reviews and an “A” Cinemascore, moviegoers liked the product, which heads into 2 weeks of school holidays and should play to good multiples.

The culprit hurting Dragon is clearly Tim Burton’s Alice since it’s still playing in 75% of its 3D theaters and still showing box office strength even after its 4th weekend in release. Its total estimated international gross to date is now $363M for a worldwide total of $656M so far.

Right now this comedy from beleaguered MGM, which is on the auction block, is hanging on to #3 even though it underperformed. Hollywood expected the John Cusack starrer to open to at least $20M. Nope. Even though 30 Rock even wrote the pic into last week’s episode. (Tina Fey’s character pretends to be headed to a Truffaut retrospective only to be seen buying tickets to Hot Tub Time Machine — which is one of the best or worst titled movies in recent Hollywood history. You tell me which.) Though the pic didn’t cost much, near-bankrupt MGM did get permission from creditors to earmark $45M for P&A expense, but I’m assured the studio didn’t spend all that. Still, I wonder if it was a mistake to focus only on advertising the pic to men and not to women.

120 Comments

$44 million with those even more inflated IMAX and 3-D ticket prices this weekend. Those numbers stink.

G • on Mar 26, 2010 9:59 pm

Um, am I missing something here? Since when is $45 million (not $44) bad? Sure 3D prices are inflated, but last time I checked $45 million was still $45 million.

You’re obviously not an accountant.

jnw • on Mar 26, 2010 9:59 pm

I know tons of people who want to see Hot Tub Time Machine… but not in the theater. Don’t be surprised if it becomes a stoner classic on DVD. Something to think about…

No One of Consequence • on Mar 26, 2010 9:59 pm

I think we can safely put to rest the theory that Hot Tub Time Machine will “save” MGM.

Rough week for the Lion, by all accounts.

What? • on Mar 26, 2010 9:59 pm

Nikke also forgot to mention that The Bounty Hunter made as much on it’s 8th day (Friday) as Hot Tub Time Machine made on it’s first day. And that Whimpy Kid film pretty much whimped out after one weekend. Once the Bounty Hunter opens in Europe it will cross the $100 million mark. With the film already turning in a profit now after production and marketing costs have all been paid for I guess Jennifer Aniston isn’t so embarrassed afterall.

Are you kidding me. That pantload of a movie of Aniston’s is only 9% fresh on Rottentomatoes, that means 91% of critics thought it was rancid toe jam. Get a clue.

Not embarrassed, she’s humiliated! Especially after the publicity stunt Butler pulled today on her stupid asss.

I hear in a photo-op Butler has taken fingering Aniston’s jean-covered bunghole overseas — just to squeeze some kind of blood out of that dry ass’d turnip of a rom-com. Talk about your no-class, low-class, manipulative famewh*res – that is pretty disgusting and mortifying…and all to sell this time suck of a movie called ‘Bounty.’

Killy69 • on Mar 26, 2010 9:59 pm

what a flop! Dragon

Anonymous • on Mar 26, 2010 9:59 pm

Dragon will soar once word hits the streets! It is the best movie ever! I am a grown woman and absolutely love this movie and have 2 dates to go back and see it already!

Bob • on Mar 26, 2010 9:59 pm

Why didn’t Hot Tub Time Machine do better? It’s had good buzz. Then again, some of the commercials have been unfunny.

It looks like it might be the “Snakes on a Plane” situation. It had a really stupid title and silly premise that made people talk about it but when it came down to it, nobody actually went to go see it. Also, a lot of the guy audience probably stayed in to watch the NCAA tournament.

paul • on Mar 26, 2010 9:59 pm

Why didn’t Hot Tub Time Machine do better?????? Because people have better things to do with $10, but I could have told you that back in February of last year when I read the logline in Variety. It is hard to make movies that appeal to an audience that you condescend to.

Nikki — girl, i predicted here on this site a resounding $250m cap for “Alice” … it disheartens my cold withered heart to see this TimboButonovich trip-pic continue on in its plodding path above $300m. COME ON! Really?! Ugh … I stand oh so corrected.

Bill • on Mar 26, 2010 9:59 pm

Do you mean Tim “I’m probably the most consistently bankable film director outside of Steven Spielberg and oh, by the way my college buddies John Lasseter, Joe Ranft, Henry Sellick and Brad Bird has done pretty good by the industry as well” Burton. That Tim Burton.

Jealously is a really bad thing. But being clueless about one of the few people who pay the bills for the industry is even more annoying. Considering 65% of Hollywood films fail, you should probably send a portion of your check to Tim if you work in the industry. Thank goodness for the few people who actually make movies audiences want to see. If it wasn’t for them we’d all be speaking Hindi.

JarlerGuy • on Mar 26, 2010 9:59 pm

I’m surprised they would open HTT Machine the same weekend as “Dragon.” Not sure that was a smart move.

tom • on Mar 26, 2010 9:59 pm

they don’t appeal to the same audiences, if they opened two R rated comedies at the same time, that would be a bad move. I hope all of you who haven’t seen She’s Out of my League goes out and sees it — its one of the best.

npr • on Mar 26, 2010 9:59 pm

that makes no sense. one is family targeted, the other is raunchy r.

EJP • on Mar 26, 2010 9:59 pm

You can’t seriously be suggesting that Hot Tub and Dragon are going after the same audience. Hot Tub is an R-rated raunchy comedy, and Dragon is a PG-rated family friendly film. Hot Tub is not exactly the kind of film you want to take your kids to.

Dawn A. • on Mar 26, 2010 9:59 pm

Nikki-you need to check your % drops.They are not calculated correctly for The Bounty Hunter and Diary of A Wimpy Kid.I didn’t check Alice.It might be off too.

The Bounty Hunter is looking good! Less than a 40% drop is great!It was a fun movie.The critics are off on this one.

AnistonsEmployeePalsPleaseSTOP • on Mar 26, 2010 9:59 pm

100% of critics say Bounty Hunter is a pile of steaming monkey poo. Rottentomatoes gives it 9%. Add in the fact, how very LOW the bar is always set for Aniston ANYWAY, and you have a nightmare experience that is unparallelled.
.
THAT stinker wouldn’t be ‘fun’ even if it starred Angelina Jolie & Brad Pitt. I’ll go one further, if you resurrected Gable & Lombard, and infused them with the comic stylings of Richard Pryor and Madeline Kahn, it would STILL be a time/joy suck on par with a House Appropriation meeting, so imagine then what it is, with Aniston & Butler; if you guessed on par with a triple root canal performed by a meercat, you are EXACTLY right.
.
The audience that is built-in for this caca, is the same one that gets heart palpitations, and sweaty palms when the craploids link Aniston with Pitt, or, make that with anything with a penis. In other words, YES – there are a LOT of lame over 40s and 50s who want to see ‘Jen’ with someone they deem ‘hot,’ hence Butler (though he’s not), and hence the residual tix that are being purchased now.
.
It’s also why her movies FLOP worse than this when the male co-star is unknown. Afterall, if they can’t ‘up’ Aniston’s profile/image, the fanistons don’t care.
.
She can thank Butler for the crumb she’s getting now. But that’s not saying much.
.
Hollywood GIVE IT A REST. Give Jen a FORCED vacation.

What? • on Mar 26, 2010 9:59 pm

Good god the Jen Aniston haters need to get a life already. Despite the reviews this movie did exactly what was expected last week. And had a small drop-off this week, much less than expected, which means it’s holding up do to word of mouth. Remember the critics liked Titantic and that movie SUCKED. Nikke is not always right. And the haters should go join a tea party or something.

armand • on Mar 26, 2010 9:59 pm

Dawn…you said it mate.

Saw the movie and love it. Nothing too complicated, no CGI, no 3D nadah. Simple plot with good acting. That’s Jen and Gerard for you

But don’t tell Nikki, She doesn’t like her own kind and shows no support for them. I

james • on Mar 26, 2010 9:59 pm

The critics are NOT wrong about the bounty hunter — i would love for it to do well because i love the stars and director but this is just a poorly written script that is not fun at all.

Surprised that Hot Tub — after all the buzz didn’t do better — although I was surprised it was supposed to do well at all….

Dragon is superb and 97 percent Fresh on Rotten tomatoes.

bobby the saint • on Mar 26, 2010 9:59 pm

Was the “Hot Tub” script any good? Or was the failure here because of the director and actors?

An inquiring mind wants to know….

Walter 'Gib' Gibson • on Mar 26, 2010 9:59 pm

I read the original script and it was kind of fun but very hit and miss to say the least. Nobly trying to be a smart-dumb comedy — rather than just plain dumb — but still very ramshackle.

Obviously with a cast of comedians, there was plenty of improv during filming, but as Variety says, the movie was edited “with duct-tape”, so the end result is a torrent of gags but no rhythm, no narrative confidence, no surprising pockets of emotion — all the other good stuff that makes smash hits out of things like There’s Something About Mary.

I’m just amazed that MGM went so balls-out selling the film like it was the Hangover. I bet the only test screenings they did were filled with drunk college males!

paul • on Mar 26, 2010 9:59 pm

They went balls-out selling the film because they are desperate. It really is a statement to their creative management that they would choose to go out with this film as the first of their new regime. It is appallingly bad. They kept comparing it to The Hangover; I guess because they both had four guys in them.

There will be a lot of apologists that will say that nobody wants to sell anything to MGM because they are afraid of their projects never getting made or being tied up in the court system, but still this is what they decided to go out with first.

They shouldn’t look down on their audience, but this film says it all. How can you sell films to people that live in states that you view as: “Fly-Over” states?

Not Drunk, Not College Kid • on Mar 26, 2010 9:59 pm

I’m neither drunk nor am I in college– I saw the movie in Charlotte, NC today and laughed my ass off. It’s dumb, it’s goofy, it’s really, really funny. The crowd I saw it with laughed as much as I did. I don’t know what movie you saw, but it wasn’t trying to be Noah Baumbach’s GREENBERG. It was trying to make me laugh. And it succeeded in spades.

Bill • on Mar 26, 2010 9:59 pm

Yeah, it wasn’t a bad movie. It just wasn’t a great one. Much closer to Harold and Kumar than to the Hangover. It had no third act and the resolution wasn’t earned at all. It will be a staple on Comedy Central for years to come, however.

It’s the Better Off Dead of 2010.

Sam • on Mar 26, 2010 9:59 pm

HOW TO TRAIN A DRAGON IS BETTER THAN AVATAR — it’s got a beautiful moving story.

TruthBTold • on Mar 26, 2010 9:59 pm

@Dawn A. The Bounty Hunter IS NOT looking good. It’s not the critics that matter. It’s moviegoers. Most moviegoers don’t base their decision to see a new release because of critics. Give yourself/us more credit. Plus the title sucked for a Rom Com.

armand • on Mar 26, 2010 9:59 pm

Many was predicting huge drop for the Bounty Hunter and the opp for Wimpy Kid for their sophomore weekend
Then you see BT dropping less than 50% and Wimpy in its 60s. So do your math you and yr homework. Critics may not like the movies cause they want everything to be arty-farty and Avaturdy.

BT is a pure rom com and audiences love it. See the B.O cum if you need further proof

Both will make profit since both are low budget.

Anonymous • on Mar 26, 2010 9:59 pm

Both new releases are flops considering how much they were both being hyped. I personally had no desire to see either, but I didn’t realize so many others felt the same way.

Next week will be interesting. Another 3-D blockbuster(Clash), and two movies from guys who have each carved a surprisingly loyal niche(Sparks, Perry). Even if we can predict the order they’ll finish, predicting the exact numbers would be a challenge.

Alice • on Mar 26, 2010 9:59 pm

They also just raised this weekend 3D and imax prices in some places by 26 percent. IN my area it’s still an upcharge of 2.25 for real 3D and Imax is 15.50 — how much in your place?

People also just spent a load on Alice. I wonder how Dragon will fare when it will lose 3D screens next week to Clash of the titans — i don’t understand why they are all crammed together, with the next 3D movie not coming out until Mid May. It’s unfair to dragon, which is superb.

lever • on Mar 26, 2010 9:59 pm

Both new releases are flops considering how much they were both being hyped. I personally had no desire to see either, but I didn’t realize so many others felt the same way.

Next week will be interesting. Another 3-D blockbuster(Clash), and two movies from guys who have each carved a surprisingly loyal niche(Sparks, Perry). Even if we can predict the order they’ll finish, predicting the exact numbers would be a challenge.

james • on Mar 26, 2010 9:59 pm

The bounty hunter is NOT a great movie and the critics are not wrong on this one — I was so excited to see this one but the script is just awful — and it didn’t need to be. I love the stars, the director and glad that it will do well but disappointed.

Surprised that Hot Tub didn’t do better after all the buzz — although I was surprised it was gonna do well at all

Dragon is great!

Wrong • on Mar 26, 2010 9:59 pm

Bounty Hunter is doing good … But Bounty Hunter is number three and not Hot Tub (Bounty Hunter estimated weekend 13 M and Hot Tub estimated weekend 12 M) and also a 40 % drop and not 46 %)

NOyouAREwrong • on Mar 26, 2010 9:59 pm

What are you talking about? Bounty Hunter is in about 1000 more theaters than Hot Tub and it’s STILL 4th – which doesn’t surprise me given the savage reviews — actually, I should say it does surprise me that there are sad pathetic ‘team aniston,’ cows out there still willing to indulge in an Aniston fantasy with a hot guy. I guess they’re the ones buying the tabloids and weeklies she covers too.

Ryan • on Mar 26, 2010 9:59 pm

Maybe too many people saw Hot Tub Time Machine (sorry, I’m not abbreviating this title because it’s just too fun to type out) for free, haha. But seriously, this opening is much more in line with films of the ilk. I bought into the $20Mish OW due to all the hype, but hype doesn’t always translate into $$$ (ie. Watchmen, Snakes on a Plane).

DRAGON opened better than expected, but nothing awe-inspiring, however this should have terrific legs over spring break and it runs the gamut on IMAX screens until IRON MAN 2 and 3D screens because CLASH will take all of ALICE’s that are left over until SHREK 3D (another Dreamworks creation).

Otherwise everything is a bit all over the place inbetween drops. Odd week. I’ll give my full breakdown tomorrow once more numbers roll in.

ChrisH • on Mar 26, 2010 9:59 pm

An article on USA Today yesterday on the makers of Dragon said they were hoping for 65 million for a great weekend, 61 for a good weekend, and 55 was “cause for concern” esp in light of losing theaters when Titans comes out next week. I suppose 45 mil is enough to induce panic.

gena • on Mar 26, 2010 9:59 pm

Muahaha, a ‘root canal done by a meercat.’ lmao There is nothing I want to see that’s out right now. The Runaways maybe, but it’s not in my area yet.

Anonymous • on Mar 26, 2010 9:59 pm

Hot Tub is an unfunny, sloppily made movie. It’s not even close to being in THE HANGOVER’S league. If 90 minutes of juvenile dick jokes is your idea of great comedy, than by all means, spend your hard earned money on this loser.

Dick Darlington • on Mar 26, 2010 9:59 pm

The drops are from the previous Friday, not the weekend; so Nikki is correct in that regard.

Bounty Hunter is horrendous • on Mar 26, 2010 9:59 pm

The Bounty Hunter was god-awful.
Shocked that the drop-off wasn’t 60+, it was THAT bad.
That anyone thinks this was a fun movie is disturbing.
Everyone involved should be in seclusion until it’s pulled from the theaters.

Chris • on Mar 26, 2010 9:59 pm

LOL. Bounty Hunter still a financial embarrassment, Nikki?

FAIL.

whoRyou • on Mar 26, 2010 9:59 pm

Put down the curling iron and pick up a reputable industry read, or better yet just come here – you don’t know what you’re talking about. The EMBARRASSMENT is that WITH BUTLER, Aniston only accrued a 20 mil opening weekend. Don’t pretend you don’t know what she’s talking about. That’s close to 8 million LESS than Butler’s Ugly Truth with Heigl. THAT was the embarrassment.

When it hits DVD, it should make it’s money back and then some, Butler’s rabid fandom will make that happen, as will Jen’s dwindling team aniston supporters — it should be in the black in the end.

But that’s not the point is it.

It’s really NOT about making money in the END. If it was, Eric Robert’s old ‘Best of the Best,’ Grade C Martial Arts movies would land him on the cover of Vanity Fair, since they all end up in the black. Ditto, soft core porn titles – which make their money BACK.

Hollywood is not in the business of spending millions in superbowl, Oscar broadcast, and other A-list marketing venues on shite that only becomes EVENTUALLY successful due to niche.

lac • on Mar 26, 2010 9:59 pm

Yes TBH is an embarrassment based on the amount of promotion Sony did. Once again this movie was not promoted like a regular rom com but like a major action comedy. Heck the stars even hosted shows on ESPN.

michael • on Mar 26, 2010 9:59 pm

DRAGON is five times the movie ALICE is and so is the 3-D, the reviews are great, and still it’s not doing the huge business it should. Did all the news stories on Friday about 3-D ticket prices being jacked up hurt its grosses? If so, the theaters have no one but themselves to blame for gouging audiences.

And I haven’t seen BOUNTY HUNTER, don’t know if it actually sucks or not, but it is nice to see the Jen-bashers proven wrong by BH’s better hold than WIMPY KID.

Jackson • on Mar 26, 2010 9:59 pm

How are you coming to the conclusion that BH has a better hold than Wimpy Kid. Wimpy Kid has Alice, and now Dragon competing against it. In case you hadn’t noticed, there are 3 kids movies in the TOP 4. Bounty Hunter conversely, as rank and sh*tty as it is, has the chick-flick woman demographic floor ALL to itself. It’s the only comedy aimed at women for miles around. Where do you think Bounty Hunter would be if there was even 1 OTHER movie out there that could be remotely described as a ‘chick flick’ — that’s why the numbers for it are soooo embarrassing. It’s all alone and STILL 4th, and still is seeing it’s 20 mil, sliced in half.

Franklin • on Mar 26, 2010 9:59 pm

Hot Tub is going to do less than one third of The Hangover’s opening. Pretty surprising.

Teamster X • on Mar 26, 2010 9:59 pm

I’m thrilled when any American movie filmed in Canada, such as “Hot Tub Time Machine,” flops. The best example was “Cinderella Man,” but this one is good too. Film in the U.S.!