Let’s just stick to the theories

When Voyager 1 thundered away from Cape Canaveral on Sept. 5, 1977, its primary mission was to explore the solar system, but the extras were what engaged the public imagination. In a utopian anticipation of its discovery by extraterrestrial intelligence somewhere Out There, the NASA probe — and its Voyager 2 twin — was fitted with a gold-plated disc featuring samples of 115 languages, music, photos and the natural sounds of life on Earth.

Both spacecraft flashed past Pluto way back in 1990, and scientists are debating whether or not the vehicles have actually departed our solar system. Either way, nearly 36 years later, at more than 18 billion kilometers from Earth, Voyager 1 is the farthest flung hardware our species has ever created.

Three years after the Voyagers left home, nanotechnologist Robert Freitas leaped many generations ahead and co-authored a NASA feasibility study on self-replicating probes (SRPs). He contemplated what it would take for advanced space-faring technology not only to repair and perpetuate itself during missions, but also to improvise on destination targeting as it forged the cosmic oceans. Among the motivations for this exercise was a theoretical test of the Fermi Paradox, in which physicist Enrico Fermi alleged, in 1950, that if ET civilizations existed, we would’ve known it by now. “Where are they?” he wondered.

In 1983, Freitas confronted the Paradox in the International Journal of the British Interplanetary Society by suggesting that ET probes — not quite as naive as our little Voyagers — might be more discerning before initiating contact. He hypothesized that ET engineers would be too smart to dispatch scout vessels capable of breaking down into derelict shells subject to recovery by inferior societies. Freitas envisioned a scenario in which these auto-repair SRPs might also camouflage their presence and maintain communications blackouts until the “recipient species” could pass a “threshold test” for native intelligence or technological prowess. He suggested SRPs could be exploring our neighborhood even as we speak.

This provocative notion was challenged in the July edition of The International Journal of Astrobiology by Scottish mathematicians Arwen Nicholson and Duncan H. Forgan at the University of Edinburgh. Nicholson and Forgan proposed that, without goring the sacred cow of light speed, ET engineers from older civilizations could design Voyager-sized SRPs and, using stars for gravitational velocity assists, “slingshot” them across the void up to 100 times faster than the Voyagers.

It’s a far-out idea, literally and figuratively. The authors assume that these SRPs, approaching no closer than 10 percent the speed of light, could produce, in transit, multiple, time-saving duplications of themselves, which could then be dispatched to plow, in coordinated fashion, distant corners of the Milky Way Galaxy for signs of intelligent life. Bottom line: SRP fleets using the Nicholson-Forgan algorithms could have surveyed our star system in the relatively short span of 10 million years — plenty of time to have discovered Earth. Lacking evidence of such surveillance, the authors conclude “the question underlying the Fermi Paradox is well posed.”

“This is a serious argument against ETI. Since we don’t see them here, they don’t exist,” he surmised in an email. “Maybe there is no interstellar travel because it’s too expensive, physically impossible, too hazardous, or ETI’s aren’t interested. Or they are here but undetected. Or they just don’t exist. Given these possibilities, most astronomers continue to argue we will only know for sure by looking for them with radio searches, etc. UFO reports are another matter …

“There are indeed a very few percent of UFO reports that remain unexplained. But as (Carl) Sagan always said, ‘extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence,’ and extraordinary evidence is not available (or you would have heard of it!). I conclude there may be something unexplained going on with those few percent, whether something physical, psychological, or sociological, but to jump to the ‘extraterrestrial hypothesis’ is unwarranted at this time.”

During our exchange three years ago, Dick informed De Void he had not reviewed MUFON’s radar analysis of the 2008 Stephenville Incident, nor had he read Leslie Kean’s UFOs: Generals, Pilots and Government Officials Go On the Record, which earned the endorsements of blue-chip astronomers Michio Kaku and Derrick Pitts. Significantly, both declined to paste an extraterrestrial label on the phenomenon; they simply advocated serious UFO research.

Might the furtive and transient nature of most UFO encounters — combined with the stealth/cloaking behaviors reported in so many instances — be a manifestation of Freitas’ hypothesized SRP “threshold tests” for gauging intelligence? Why not subject the data to our own rigorous tests? De Void posed the question to Dick in a followup, and also asked if he was familiar with any of the compelling studies published by his former NASA colleague, Richard Haines, at the National Aviation Reporting Center on Anomalous Phenomena.

Duff:
Reexamine your definition and understanding of the word “evidence”, then ask yourself if you apply the same criteria to this blog’s topic as you do to more mainstream scientific topics. The odds are pretty good that you do not. Oddly, most skeptics of “true UFOs” accept as reality things for which there’s much less evidence.

Random musing- Are the theories of geniuses who deny the possibility of visitation any more valid than the musings of a high school graduate who believes, if neither’s thoughts have been proven? Are they even more worthy of the more respectful titles of “theory” or “contemplation” that they respectfully receive for their assertions, whereas the less educated may receive a veritable bucketful of snarky insults for thinking there may just be something to this UFO thing?

Yo Duff — My “stupid query,” by extension of your logic, makes Dick’s theory “stupid” as well. Please keep in mind that the goal of De Void’s comments section is to offend as many people as possible. Thanks!

My recollection of the origin of this Fermi’s famous remark may be flawed, but here’s my take on the whole thing. While visiting White Sands, NM in 1950, he voiced the paradox to some White Sands colleagues at lunch. By 1950, White Sands had experienced many UFO sightings starting even before Roswell. These colleagues of his had probably heard of many of these sightings and knew that they looked like metallic structured craft. Plus being close in time to the war effort, they undoubtedly had an idea as to the state of Russian weaponry at that time. If these assumptions are true, certainly at least a couple of them strongly suspected that these craft were of alien origin, speed of light be damned. Another guess of mine is that they kept silent at lunch because of Fermi’s towering reputation, and did not want to challenge his remark. Fermi himself should have known of the sightings and suspected alien origin at the time too. Now, here we are 63 years later, and are still debating the paradox. Here’s my point: How could he have said, “Where are they?” given that they may have been flying around over his head even as he spoke? Once someone becomes a believer in nuts and bolts ufology, the Fermi paradox really looks ignorant, and is not worth the time of day to talk about it.

the arrogance of some humans is beyond believe I just can not believe peoples thinking even if it is from a earth bound species in which the media is controlled with a truth censorship (which there is now overwhelming proof)thousands of airline pilots and regular pilots have seen first hand these ufos and/or a metallic disks flying thousands of craft seen every year doing things no other aircraft can do and they are not even heard they make no noise,thousands of sightings even on radar flying over military bases even nucleur missile sites in which they turn off the missiles and thousands of people who remember being abducted since childhood over 400 witnesses and 50 of them testified having first hand witnessed these aliens and/or craft and our govt. is covering it up up(citizens disclosure)and they convinced all of the senators congressmembers it was true I could go on and on with (proof) that even in a back woods courtroom there would be a overwhelming evidents.and what are govt. does not care about any of this ha,ha,heh,heh rriigghhhttt and we have not been back to the moon in over 60 years but want to go to mars which is 6 months away and the moon is three days,ha,ha,rriggghht even a 10 year old can see a pattern there and more but well ddduuuhhhh it will take a lot of chemical fuel to go to another planet and if big strong earthman does not know or invented it can not exist right,wow people can not be that dumb and why would aliens be in a hurry to see humans we are extremely greedy,evil,will kill anybody over anything ect,ect,wake up.

Maybe Dick didn’t answer because he is sick and tired of stupid queries about space craft for which there is absolutely no evidence. There is no shortage of videos, but a complete absence of actual evidence.

“I conclude there may be something unexplained going on with those few percent, whether something physical, psychological, or sociological, but to jump to the ‘extraterrestrial hypothesis’ is unwarranted at this time.”
The above statement by Steven Dick is valid until he throws in his “but to jump” at the end of the sentence. One “jumps” to a conclusion but not to a hypothesis. A hypothesis is a theory based on limited evidence that potentially explains a phenomenon but requires additional data collection in order to prove or disprove the hypothesis. An ET hypothesis does not mean that ET is the cause of the UFO phenomenon. It means that is one “potential” explanation. The UFO phenomenon has been ongoing since World War II. It has not gone away. Whether one wants to argue that people have become influenced by some type of UFO craze since WWII and for some reason this craze maintained itself across four generations or one wants to argue that military craft are the cause or one wants to argue a possible ET origin, the phenomenon has been in existence for so long that various hypotheses should be examined and work done to either prove or disprove them.

Speculating on the motivations of possible ETIs isn’t easy, but there are some additional questions that should be considered: As civilizations tend to increase in diversity and complexity in time, through knowledge, technology and even culture then don’t we need to factor in the relative complexity of older, more advanced civilizations? For instance, would ETIs visiting Earth be representatives of a ‘State’ only, or special interest groups, or even individuals? Should we include possible AI’s?
If intelligent life is common in this galaxy, then we merely represent the latest incarnation of intelligence. Other civilizations would have seen the rise of younger civilizations, perhaps many, many times over. A ‘First Contact’ playbook could exist.
If interaction with alien species is possible and potentially widespread, then do any ‘galactic’ rules exist and how are they policed?
As the number of intelligent species in a galaxy increases, what are the synergistic effects of multispecies interaction, if any?