Examining the NCAA Tournament picture and bubble prospects one week until Selection Sunday

Chris Lee/St. Louis Post-Dispatch/MCTIllinois State guard Tyler Brown celebrates after hitting a 3-pointer in the Redbirds' upset win in the Missouri Valley semifinals over top-seeded Wichita State. The win moves the school one win away from stealing an NCAA Tournament bid.

Any bubble team that's worth its weight in salt, will have woken up sore this morning from doing dancing and rituals all night long to keep the bubble-bursting spirits away. So far, in the early-goings of the conference tournaments, there haven't been many surprises. Murray State almost was one, but the Racers pulled it out at the gun. So far, bubble teams have been lucky.

So far.

All eyes will be on St. Louis for the championship of the Missouri Valley Conference. Everything was going swimmingly until Saturday afternoon, when Illinois State (20-12) pulled off the upset over No. 1-seed, Wichita State. The Redbirds will play second-seeded Creighton for the title. Both the Bluejays and Shockers are assured of spots in the field. But Illinois State? Their only ticket is to beat Creighton.

Do that and someone will hear their bubble burst. And to think: It's only Sunday. Still one week left to go. With Championship Week officially underway, Star-Ledger college basketball writer Brendan Prunty is breaking down all of the possible scenarios for the NCAA Tournament bubble picture.

SHIPPING UP TO BOSTON?
Right now, we're projecting Syracuse as the top seed in the East Regional in Boston, where The Star-Ledger will be on March 22 and 24 at the TD Garden. But who will join them? Here are our top four seeds for the regional as of today:

BUBBLE TEAMSIn For Now - They're in, but losing would be a bad idea
Drexel
South Florida
Mississippi State
BYU

Last Four In - Making the field ... but just barely
Washington
Northwestern
Xavier
Seton Hall

Last Four Out - A win here, a loss there...
Texas
Oregon
N.C. State
Miami

Next Four Out - In need of wins and a lot of help
Central Florida
Saint Joseph's
Dayton
Tennessee

BIG EAST BUBBLE PICTURESeton Hall (19-11, 8-10)RPI: 60; SOS: 48

The Pirates had the perfect setup: Win at last-place DePaul and the bid to the NCAA Tournament would pretty much be sewn up. Instead, the Pirates blew it. Read our analysis from this morning to see where Seton Hall stacks up.

South Florida (19-12, 12-6)RPI: 45; SOS: 23

You'd have to consider the Bulls in the field right now, even with Saturday's loss to West Virginia at home. Much like Seton Hall, South Florida is benefitting from a soft bubble. Even though the Bulls have really only two solid conference wins of their 12 (at Louisville last week and against Seton Hall in January), they do have those 12 wins. And while the Selection Committee throws conferences records out the window during the selection process, getting into the top eight in the Big East might be enough to sneak them in. Losing in their first Big East Tournament game (USF gets the Rutgers-Villanova winner) would not be a good idea though.

West Virginia (19-12, 9-9)RPI: 49; SOS: 13

Beating South Florida Saturday was big, because it allowed the Mountaineers to claim that final first-round bye, thanks to the Seton Hall loss to DePaul. Yes, West Virginia hasn't been consistent this year and has to losses to teams outside of the RPI top-100 (Kent State at home and St. John's on the road), but their resume and overall body of work puts them as one of the best 68 teams in the country.