Leadership: France’s chance to restore hope

Game changer? Emmanuel Macron appears to stand strongly for everything the right-wing populists are against.

March 27, 2017

Geoff Kitney poses the question: could a Macron presidency in France do what the Obama presidency in the US failed to do?

France may be about to embrace a political insurgent of an utterly unexpected kind.

If the French presidential election results in victory for Emmanuel Macron, it will be a victory for an outsider, but with a political agenda that is the antithesis of the “outsider” movement which has caused such chaos in the United States (US), Britain and elsewhere.

If Macron becomes French president in May, France will have a leader in whom much of the western democratic world will see hope for the future, a leader who embraces the modernism and optimism that the populist insurgents have rejected and from which they have promised to retreat.

It would be a remarkable victory, so starkly against the tide of anger, resentment, fear and loss of faith that Brexit and Donald Trump turned into stunning, anti-establishment political triumphs.

There was a hint in the Dutch election result two weeks ago that the so-called “sensible middle” ground of the political spectrum (where most non-partisan voters resided through the golden years of western democracy in the second half of the 20th century) was stirring to stand against right-wing, populist demagoguery.

Could a Macron presidency in France do what Obama failed to do?

A Macron victory would show that there is still a constituency to be won by leaders with the courage to stand against the cheap politics of populists who trade in ignorance, grievance and fear.

Of course, a loss for Macron to Marine Le Pen would smash this optimistic vision to rubble. Even a surprise last minute revival and victory for the right-wing social conservatism of François Fillon would be a rejection of the “sensible middle”.

Yet there is encouraging evidence that resistance to the politics of the extremes is under way.

Support for membership of the European Union has risen across Europe since the Brexit vote (including in Britain), according to a poll of 10,000 people conducted at the end of last year by the Bertelsmann Foundation. It found more than 60 per cent of those polled wanted a future inside the EU.

A separate and more recent Bertelsmann poll of the attitudes of young people in six central and eastern countries (Germany, Austria, Poland, Hungary, Czech Republic and Slovakia) found 70 per cent support for membership of the EU.

Taken together the polls confirm that, for the people to whom the longer term future is most important – young people – the idea of a collective European identity is very important. To a politician willing to stand for this future, there are potentially significant electoral rewards among younger voters.

The thing about Macron is that he appears to stand strongly for everything that the right-wing populists are against – a more integrated, more tolerant, more liberal Europe building on what has already been achieved rather than tearing it down.

A “future of Europe” coalition of young voters and pro-Europe older voters is clearly Macron’s target constituency. But he is proposing a new approach to the European project, rejuvenating the ideals of Europe by shaking up and re-energising the political system.

Macron talks in ambitious terms.

He lambasts the existing political system as corrupted by decadence and conformism. He says there has been a severe decline in the public morality, the sense of history and the human quality of leaders, as a result of the dominance of an out-of-touch professional political class.

In some ways Macron echoes the story of Barack Obama’s rapid rise to the US presidency by harnessing the power of groups who had become disillusioned with the political system and felt ignored by it, wanting change and reasons to hope for a better future.

But the tragedy of Obama’s failure to meet the expectations of those who invested their hope in him by failing to be sufficiently assertive against the vested interests that stood to lose from a bolder, braver and more confident reforming leader is a salutory lesson for those who have their hopes raised by an insurgent from the progressive side of politics.

For a young, idealistic and politically inexperienced candidate such as Macron, the challenge is to persuade and win over the “lost” young people of France who have been drawn to Marine Le Pen’s siren calls for a sort of revenge, a brutal assault on the elites by whom they feel betrayed.

But, should he win, the challenge becomes much greater for an Obama-style leader offering hope.

The parallels between the American under-classes – the poor, unemployed, futureless (and mostly black) – to whom Obama offered the promise of change and the French under-classes in desperate need of leadership which breaks from that which has failed them in France are obvious.

Whether Macron can convince enough French voters that he really does represent, not only hope, but change in a political system which has been incapable of changing for a generation will be the key.

Could a Macron presidency in France do what Obama failed to do?

His undertaking to voters is that he will reconnect politics and policy to the “dynamic sectors” of French society that are currently poorly represented in the decisions – and the decision making – of governments. These, he says, are women, workers, young people, entrepreneurs and ethnic minorities.

The polls say that French voters find this undertaking appealing – but not yet convincing.

One good definition of leadership is that it comes from those who can inspire people to believe in themselves

Conviction will only come with the offer of a persuasive case based on real policies and on convincing voters that Macron has the passion and strength to bring about real change.

The thing about the right-wing populists who have bludgeoned their way to political power and influence is that they project strength. They echo the concerns of ordinary people with the promise to represent them with the force necessary to take on the elites and the vested interests that have governed only for themselves and their own interests.

But, in every instance where it has been tried, populism that trades on the fears and prejudices of disillusioned electorates has only ended in deeper disillusionment and division.

Studies of the attributes of the most successful leaders has shown that great leaders are driven by visions of inclusion, cohesion and empathy – and the courage to stand up for their ideals and to make the change (even when it is unpopular) to achieve them.

Popularity should be the result of strong and wise leadership, not the guiding force of it.

One good definition of leadership is that it comes from those who can inspire people to believe in themselves.

This was what Trump promised – but already it is becoming obvious that his populist agenda is fake news that is selling out those who bought the promise.

After a dismal decade, the French need a revival of belief.

If Macron wins, that will be his challenge and how he responds to it will have big implications not only for France, nor even for Europe, but for western democracy.

News Bites

May to hold talks with Merkel in Berlin
Theresa May is due to hold talks with German Chancellor Angela Merkel as she seeks to make progress on negotiating Brexit. The PM will travel to Berlin for the meeting at the Chancellery. It comes a day ahead of a speech on Saturday in which she is expected to set out the “security partnership” she wants to maintain with the EU. The UK is under pressure to reveal more detail about the final relationship it wants with the EU. Mrs May and her ministers are setting out what has been dubbed “the road to Brexit” in a series of speeches. BBC news, February 16

UK aims to keep financial rules close to EU
The UK is ready to set out its vision for how it wants financial services to operate after Brexit and favours an ambitious “mutual recognition” of regulations to preserve the City of London’s access to the EU. Under Britain’s proposal, the UK and the EU would recognise each other’s regulatory and supervisory regimes and would have aligned rules at the point of Brexit, with a mechanism that would monitor any divergence. Three senior figures briefed on Brexit discussions in the cabinet said that the government will back the proposal, which is also favoured by Mark Carney, the Bank of England governor. Financial Times, February 16

Business leader warns May against harsh immigration policy
British companies are facing a recruitment crisis, with labour shortages hitting critical levels in some sectors, according to a business leader who has urged the government to produce details on a post-Brexit immigration system. Adam Marshall, the director general of the British Chambers of Commerce, said the lack of candidates for some jobs was biting hard, and he warned ministers against bringing forward a “draconian and damaging” visa or work permit system. Surveys by the BCC showed that nearly three-quarters of firms trying to recruit had been experiencing difficulties “at or near the highest levels since [BCC] records began over 25 years ago”, he said. The Guardian, February 16

Lecturers want ‘radical’ tuition fee review
University staff are calling for a “radical” overhaul of tuition fees and higher education funding in England in a review of student finance. Sally Hunt, leader of the University and College Union, says the review must be more than “tinkering at the edges”. The review, expected to be formally announced in the near future, follows a promise by the prime minister to examine the cost of university. Theresa May said the review would show “we have listened and we have learned”. Ms Hunt, whose members are threatening strike action next week in a pensions dispute, says there needs to be a “fundamental look at university funding”. BBC news, February 16

Shampoo ‘as bad a health risk as car fumes’
Shampoo, oven cleaner, deodorant and other household products are as significant a source of the most dangerous form of air pollution as cars, research has found. Scientists studying air pollution in Los Angeles found that up to half of particles known as volatile organic compounds (VOCs) came from domestic products, which also include paint, pesticides, bleach and perfumes. These compounds degrade into particles known as PM2.5, which cause respiratory problems and are implicated in 29,000 premature deaths each year in the UK. Traffic had been assumed to be the biggest source of air pollution. The new findings, published in the journal Science, led to warnings that countries may struggle to hit pollution targets, with most tackling vehicle emissions. The Times, February 16

US rejects China bid for Chicago Stock Exchange
The US has rejected a proposed merger between the Chicago Stock Exchange and a Chinese-linked investor group. The decision comes after more than two years of reviews by officials. The tie-up was initially approved by the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States, pending further approval by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). But US politicians, including President Trump, have said letting a Chinese firm invest in a US exchange was a bad idea. Under the proposal, the Chinese-led North America Casin Holdings group would have bought a minority share of the privately owned Chicago Stock Exchange. BBC news, February 16

Labour gets 16,000 emails in five days urging it to consult on Brexit
More than 16,000 people have emailed Labour over the past five days, urging the party to consult members on Brexit after MPs said the topic was being ignored by its most senior policy body. The emails from party members will be examined by the party’s national policy forum (NPF), which meets this weekend in Leeds, and whose members include the shadow cabinet and trade union leaders. Labour has set up eight policy commissions since last year’s general election, to consult members and develop policy, but none focus on Brexit. The party has said Brexit is covered under the international policy commission, involving Keir Starmer, the shadow Brexit secretary, but that commission is not at the moment accepting submissions on Brexit. The Guardian, February 15