OTTAWA—Jack Layton’s death leaves Prime Minister Stephen Harper with an unfettered hold on power and plunges Canadian federal politics into the unknown.

While the focus Monday was on mourning, thoughts also turned to the impact the loss of the NDP leader will have on public affairs and on the realignment of Canada’s political landscape.

One thing was certain: Layton’s death will make it easier for Harper to dominate the national political agenda. Not only did the federal Conservatives win a majority government on May 2 but none of Harper’s chief opponents in the campaign are now leading their parties. The Liberals’ Michael Ignatieff and the Bloc Québécois’ Gilles Duceppe quit right after the election.

Despite Harper’s majority control of Parliament, there had been speculation that Layton could draw on his personal popularity to harness public opinion to exert some influence on the ruling Conservatives. Sadly, that is now a moot point, observers said.

“It’s quite tragic, but in terms of the larger political reality, Harper’s luck of the Irish strikes again,” said University of Ottawa historian Michael Behiels. “It’s sad to say that, but Harper was the beneficiary of Ignatieff’s prompt departure and now he is going to be the beneficiary, politically speaking, of the demise of Jack Layton.”

Behiels said Layton turned the NDP “into his party in a very, very overt way and most NDPers seemed to enjoy that reality.”

“And they made the (election) breakthrough based, really, on his personality and his breakthrough in Quebec.”

He said this will have enormous political consequences over the next few years, as the NDP is in disarray and the Liberals are marginalized.

“Harper has virtually no opposition now in the House of Commons,” Behiels said.

Analysts were debating whether the NDP would be able to hold its new-found popularity, particularly in Quebec.

“He was such a unique force on the Canadian political scene,” said Ekos pollster Frank Graves. “The NDP surge never would have happened in his absence. So it’s difficult to estimate how many of his party’s achievements are stable or how many are in jeopardy given his premature demise.”

Others were talking Monday about how Layton’s loss would affect Canada’s left. After May 2, some had speculated that the majority election victory by Harper would force the surging NDP to merge with the Liberals.

“I really think the question on the table is, who is going to represent the left?” said Darrell Bricker of Ipsos Public Affairs.

He said it was Layton’s success that raised the possibility of a merger of the left.

“The question now is, who is going to pick up the mantle and continue the consolidation?”

The NDP’s leadership issues have been underscored by the difficulties encountered by interim leader Nycole Turmel, who sparked a national uproar because of her past affiliations with organizations favouring Quebec separation.

Senior NDP staffers acknowledge that Layton was the party’s “brand” and its key to electoral success, which means finding someone to replace him will be difficult.

But Karl Bélanger, Layton’s press secretary, said he is confident the party will field a number of candidates able to lead in Layton’s tradition.

“Jack Layton has built a modern party with the best and biggest team of New Democrats ever assembled,” Bélanger said. “That team has been put together with one objective in mind for Jack Layton — for the NDP to form its first government after the next election. The objective remains even though Jack Layton won’t be able to achieve it himself.”

The opposition vacuum in Parliament is also lending importance to provincial politics, as the premiers may become the main political actors left who are capable standing up to the federal Conservative government. Whether Liberal Premier Dalton McGuinty stays in office or cedes power to the Ontario Conservatives in October’s election will be of major significance as Canadians sort out the patterns of power in the next few years.

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