I was always going to implement new signals, but the $NYAD/$NYUD issues I talked about yesterday has forced me to make this a higher priority. It will take a bit of time as I am coding indicators from scratch though have some ideas in mind already.

Daily

Today’s candle was a spinning top, indicating indecision is at play. While both bulls and bears made a run today, the market closed near the open.

SPX is at the top of the 20 day Bollinger Band. The daily SPX Bollinger band remains quite narrow narrow, the tightest since 19 August (!!!). This suggests the upmove is not the big move we were looking for!

The descending trend in volume since early Feb is another warning sign for bulls (the black crosses are the 20 dma of volume).

Price remains well above the 20 dma. Blue 20dma is still well above the orange 50 dma and we remain above the 100 (red) and 200 (purple) dma. The orange 50 dma is close to crossing the red 100 dma.

15-min

SPX continue to test the 2085 pivot and it has not cleared it as of yet.

VIX (Hourly)

VIX was slightly lower today, but what is interesting is that is has not made a new low while the market has made a new high during the past few weeks. We continue to see %Bollinger Band continuing its uptrend though it may be testing that. The 140hr $VIX Bollinger Bands have narrowed significantly since early March, which suggests a large move is coming, and not in the current direction of the market. Interestingly, there was an uptick in width an hour or two before the close.

Note: I want you to know that although I have taken the steps to start the subscription business, I will continue to offer the free service through May 2016. I want there to be a good record of (hopefully) accomplishment. Plus I don’t want to spring anything on anyone unfairly. I thought 3 months was enough lead time. I also want to present something nice, and well worth your visit (and subscription).

Instead of topping the market decided it was consolidating instead, really quite remarkable. It was pointed out to me in an email the other day that this options expiration is the most bullish typically of any.

A couple of changes today. First, you’ll notice I am showing the Total Market A-D line performance and cumulative volume. This is in reaction to a conversation I had on Twitter with one of the readers last evening. I had pointed out that $NYAD/$NYUD include ETFs and are not reliable as in the past. I use the stock only for the Hindenburg Omens that I track, so why use $NYAD and $NYUD here? Well, the reason was that its available at all trading intervals so I could have indicators set to the hourly chart. But seeing the difference in $NYAD and !ADLINENYA yesterday highlighted to me that I should stop using $NYAD and $NYUD. So now that I’m stuck with a daily index, might as well use the Total Market, right?

Daily

Ignore the last candle as its from after hours trading.

SPX has breached the upper Daily Bollinger Band today by the most since 9/18/2014. The next day in 2014 was a top and the market went from 2021 to 1819 in the next 19 trading days! The daily SPX Bollinger band continues to narrow, the tightest since 19 August (!!!). This suggests the upmove is not the big move we were looking for!

Despite the market ramp, volume was still quite low compared to the down days this year. The descending trend in volume since early Feb is another warning sign for bulls (the black crosses are the 20 dma of volume).

Price jumped well above the 20 dma today. Blue 20dma is still well above the orange 50 dma and we remain above the 100 (red) and 200 (purple) dma. The orange 50 dma is about to cross the red 100 dma.

15-min

The other change today is I decided I am no longer going to display Elliott Wave counts in the short term. Doing a blog everyday has highlighted to me that they just dont work in real time. I knew it was a low percentage shot, that’s why I had been doing my EW last after technicals. Yet I continued to struggle of late as 5-waves turned from impulsive to just an A wave, etc. Just too many possibilities. I want to eliminate showing any bias here.

We cleared the 2070 pivot once again and are now testing the 2085 pivot.

VIX (Hourly)

VIX continued the downtrend in the short term, but what is interesting is that is has not made a new low while the market has made a new high during the past few weeks. We continue to see values in the upper half of the Bollinger Band, with %Bollinger Band continuing its uptrend. The 140hr $VIX Bollinger Bands are still narrowing, which suggests a large move is coming, and not in the current direction of the market.

Note: I want you to know that although I have taken the steps to start the subscription business, I will continue to offer the free service through May 2016. I want there to be a good record of (hopefully) accomplishment. Plus I don’t want to spring anything on anyone unfairly. I thought 3 months was enough lead time. I also want to present something nice, and well worth your visit (and subscription).

Note: I want you to know that although I have taken the steps to start the subscription business, I will continue to offer the free service through May 2016. I want there to be a good record of (hopefully) accomplishment. Plus I don’t want to spring anything on anyone unfairly. I thought 3 months was enough lead time. I also want to present something nice, and well worth your visit (and subscription).

Another solid day higher with the internals, but did the tide turn late day? I believe the W2 top is in for the move since 11 Feb. Nothing right now looks bullish.

Daily

Ignore the last candle as afterhours trading has begun.

For the thrid day in a row, price dipped below the blue 20dma for a time, then ended the day right at the ma at 2043. Like yesterday, the body of the candle was almost entirely below the 20 dma. Also note the long wick atop the red candle, not a good sign for the bulls (second day in a row). The upper band is trending lower so without a significant move higher it will continue to do so. Blue 20dma is still well above the orange 50 dma and we remain above the 100 (red) and 200 (purple) dma.

The descending trend in volume since early Feb is another warning sign for bulls (the black crosses are the 20 dma of volume). Meanwhile you can see the BB tightening up now, in fact they are the tightest since 19 August (!!!!!). This all lines up with the big picture count of a 3 of 3 lower coming!

Some targets would be 2019 (bottom of the daily BB), 2011 (200 dma), 1990 (100 dma). The last 2 targets are trending lower while the first is trending higher.

15-min

Several more bounces off the 2043 pivot. I am wondering if we are finally going to lose the 2043 pivot?

5-min

Today we made a new high at 2063.6, but then quickly reversed. This is an excellent spot for w2 after an a-b-c move higher.

VIX (Hourly)

VIX had a nice positive day mainly due to the selling toward the close. We are already nearing the top BB on the 140-hr chart. Notice below we are at the highest position in the BB since the second week of Feb. The tide has turned.

Note: I want you to know that although I have taken the steps to start the subscription business, I will continue to offer the free service through May 2016. I want there to be a good record of (hopefully) accomplishment. Plus I don’t want to spring anything on anyone unfairly. I thought 3 months was enough lead time. I also want to present something nice, and well worth your visit (and subscription).

Even though the market slid lower through the day, it was really an up day looking at the internals. Since today is Friday I am including Crude Oil and the Weekly SPX chart.

Crude Oil

Crude oil was the story of the day, ending the day up 5.68% settling at 39.66. But instead of this one day performance being the story, the real story should have been told since the recent high in mid March, as you can see above which was more than 14%! Such a huge upward day is only really seen as a bear market counter rally. So has crude oil and SPX really decoupled? Well, maybe. But my money is on no. Yes in the last few weeks they have gone their seperate ways. However, there is a possibility that crude and SPX are now perfectly aligned to start a nasty downturn, both now poentially ending wave 2’s higher of different degrees.

Weekly

On this new site I will be presenting the Weekly chart on Friday’s and the monthly chart at the end of each month. If I forget, remind me! It’s really not valid to look at these charts in between, similar to avoiding looking at the daily chart during the middle of the trading day. The red MACD signal line is back postitive, but the dark blue histogram tick highlights that this week’s histogram is lower than last week. A big warning sign in the mid term is how the red signal line was significantly lower with the late winter SPX low compared to the late summer 2015 SPX low. So no positive divergence there. The histogram recently was slightly higher low than late last summer. This could be viewed as positive divergence. But remember, divergences are only valid at similar wave degrees. My big picture count has the 2016 low as a 2 of a nested degree of the one that took place in late 2015.

The blue 10-week ma is below the orange 20-week ma. Price remains above the red 50-week ma and the purple 100-week ma. The moving averages look in worse shape compared to 2011. The market ATH took place 46 weeks ago, or 322 days ago. Uh-oh!

Daily

For the second day in a row, price dipped below the blue 20dma for a time, then ended the day right at the ma at 2043. The body of the candle was almost entirely below the 20 dma compared to above yesterday. Also note the long wick atop the green candle, not a good sign for the bulls. The upper band is curving lower so without a significant move higher it will continue to do so. Blue 20dma is still well above the orange 50 dma and we remain above the 100 (red) and 200 (purple) dma.

The descending trend in volume since mid Feb is another warning sign for bulls (the black crosses are the 20 dma of volume). Meanwhile you can see the BB tightening up now, in fact they are the tightest since 20 August (!!!!!). This all lines up with the big picture count of a 3 of 3 lower coming!

15-min

Another bounce off the 2043 pivot. I am wondering if this is the last bounce off that pivot higher?

5-min

Yesterday I said “Once 1 of 3 finishes we expect 2 of 3 higher to unfold. If 1 of 3 is complete or nearly so, I expect 2 of 3 to retrace between 0.382 (2046.9) and 0.618 (2055.5) with a shot of seeing 0.764 (2060.8) again.” The bounce ended at 2061.4 at 1415 UTC.

Today I placed a lower degree 1 and 2 label, though green 2 may extend a bit longer in terms of time and price, we’ll see Sunday evening.

VIX (Hourly)

VIX lost some ground today just like the internals were strong. We remain above the middle of the 140-hr BB and well above the descending yellow trendline. I still expect to clear the top of the BB (was 17.92 now 17.28) next week, if not higher.

Note: I want you to know that although I have taken the steps to start the subscription business, I will continue to offer the free service through May 2016. I want there to be a good record of (hopefully) accomplishment. Plus I don’t want to spring anything on anyone unfairly. I thought 3 months was enough lead time. I also want to present something nice, and well worth your visit (and subscription).

Finally a broad sell-off! This is close to confirming the change-in-trend that we have been looking for. I want to lose the 2043 pivot with conviction before doing a victory lap, but the evidence sure is mounting!

Daily

Price dipped below the blue 20dma for a time today, then ended the day right at the ma at 2043. The upper band is curving lower so without a significant move higher it will continue to do so. Blue 20dma is still well above the orange 50 dma and we remain above the 100 (red) and 200 (purple) dma.

15-min

After reaching the 2070 pivot yesterday, we bolted for (and slightly past for a time) the 2043 pivot.

5-min

Price made a steep decline today, allowing the final label for 2 higher to be placed. This wave down is 1 of 3 lower. I’m not sure that we are done with it yet based on some technicals, but any further dip will likely be realized overnight. Once 1 of 3 finishes we expect 2 of 3 higher to unfold. If 1 of 3 is complete or nearly so, I expect 2 of 3 to retrace between 0.382 (2046.9) and 0.618 (2055.5) with a shot of seeing 0.764 (2060.8) again.

VIX (Hourly)

Nice healthy ramp up in VIX today, great to see! We are decidely above the middle of the 140-hr BB for the first time since the second week of Feb (after retesting the yellow descending line yesterday). To me, this is clear evidence that the uptrend is complete. I expect to clear the top of the BB (currently 17.92) next week, if not higher.

Note: I want you to know that although I have taken the steps to start the subscription business, I will continue to offer the free service through May 2016. I want there to be a good record of (hopefully) accomplishment. Plus I don’t want to spring anything on anyone unfairly. I thought 3 months was enough lead time. I also want to present something nice, and well worth your visit (and subscription).

Price remains above all major moving averages and is in the upper half of the BB. The upper band is curving lower so without a significant move higher it will continue to do so. Blue 20dma is still well above the orange 50 dma.

15-min

We rocketed back to 2070 as forecast off the 2043 pivot earlier today.

5-min

Price has alsmost retraced to 2071.1 0.764 Fib retrace of W1 lower. Also remember that 2070 pivot! I can’t rule out a few more sideways/positive hours, but if my count is on track tomorrow has to be a red day.

VIX (Hourly)

With the up day for the market VIX retraced lower, retesting the yellow downtrend line. Notice how much higher the %BB is today compared to the beginning of the month when VIX was at the same level.