Scott Brown, man of mystery

Scott Brown performed with the band Cheap Trick at a concert in Massachusetts last weekend, strumming his guitar along as they played “Surrender.” Two weeks earlier, a shirtless picture of him at a polar bear swim appeared on the cover of New Hampshire’s largest newspaper. On Thursday, a conservative blog reported that the former senator will keynote an April GOP fundraiser … in Iowa.

If Brown plans to challenge Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D-N.H.), something he’s flirted with for the better part of a year now, the former Massachusetts senator has chosen a very unusual way to lay the groundwork. But those who know the 54-year-old Republican say it doesn’t mean he won’t. He’s just a one-man band who will do it on his own terms and timetable.

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PHOTOS: Scott Brown's career

Scott Brown on Twitter

Half a dozen people who have spoken with Brown recently about his future say he is genuinely conflicted about whether to run. Several of them said Brown thinks he has until April to make up his mind, or possibly even closer to the June 13 filing deadline. But another person familiar with his thinking cautioned an announcement might come as early as the first week of March.

“He’s an enigma, this guy,” said one person in touch with Brown. “He doesn’t feel pressure … Scott’s a unique person. That’s why he thinks he can wait until April. He’s pretty much holding the cards.”

Unique, detached, aloof — call it what you like.

“Doing what I said I would do,” Brown emailed POLITICO nonchalantly last week, in response to the latest query about what he’s up to. “I’m settling in, adjusting, introducing myself and helping … Keep you posted.”

National Republicans are salivating over the possibility of a Brown candidacy. His name ID and fundraising prowess would instantly put a safe Democratic seat in play, and tilt a fall election map that already favors the GOP even more in the party’s direction. The GOP needs to pick up six seats to win a majority.

The will-he-or-won’t-he conjecture has become the biggest parlor game in New Hampshire politics since Brown packed up a U-Haul in December and moved from Wrentham, Mass., to his longtime vacation home in Rye, N.H.

The conflicting clues can be perplexing — and sometimes strange. One day, he changes his Twitter handle to remove the reference to Massachusetts (must be running). Then an email blast to his supporters warns of “5 Signs You’ll Get Alzheimer’s Disease” (maybe not). One hour, Fox News says Brown is no longer under contract (looks like he’s in); later in the day it turns out he’s renewed his on-air analyst deal (never mind).

Since the start of the year on Twitter, Brown has posted a picture of himself hanging out at D.C.’s Café Milano, announced he signed up for a charity bike ride this summer in Massachusetts and accidentally tweeted out gibberish during a morning jog. At 11:45 p.m. Friday, he posted that he’s heading to Taiwan for a speech.

Adding to his seat-of-the-pants operating style is the fact that Brown has no formal advisers. He fields his own press inquiries, sometimes texting directly with reporters and sending late-night missives that have not been spell-checked.

Meanwhile, Brown has made some calls to prominent New Hampshire GOP politicians, but many rings remain unkissed.

“He’s just freelancing,” said a top Granite State operative. “This is all coming from him … He’s acting like a lone ranger.”

Allies say Brown’s rawness and accessibility speak to his authenticity. A hardscrabble upbringing toughened him up and gave him an independent streak that he has long carried; it’s just more pronounced now because he has no handlers.

“He’s not a stuffed suit in D.C. who walks around and sounds like a politician,” said a Republican strategist who has worked for Brown in the past and remains in touch. “He drinks beers, roots for the Red Sox and drives a real truck.”

But Democrats call him an unserious attention seeker and predict he won’t actually go through with it.

“It’s beginning to look like Brown is playing a cheap trick on New Hampshire Republicans,” said the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee’s Matt Canter.

Those who have spoken with Brown say he has entered a new phase of his deliberations — from whether he can win to whether he really wants to run.

In December, he was exploring whether Shaheen could be defeated. He asked the National Republican Senatorial Committee to hold off on running an internal poll until after the holidays, once he had officially relocated from Massachusetts and a conservative super PAC finished running a six-figure TV buy attacking the incumbent over her support for Obamacare.