Hyde's Advanced Analytics

Here at numberFire, we use an advanced metric called Net Expected Points (NEP), which relies on historical down-and-distance data to determine what is expected of a player on each individual play. NEP isn't a fantasy football metric, but it can be utilized to tell us whether or not a player is #GoodAtFootball.

In 2016, 19 running backs had more than 200 carries, and in 2017, 18 went over 200 carries. Rushing NEP can often be negative because rushing is not an efficient way to move the ball down the field and generate positive expected points. The league average Rushing NEP per carry in 2016 was -0.02, and in 2017, it was -0.05.

Carlos Hyde

Rushing NEP

Rushing NEP per Play

Success Rate

2016

-2.95

-0.01

40.55%

2017

-15.84

-0.07

35.83%

In 2017, Hyde ranked 14th among 18 qualified running backs in Rushing NEP per carry while running primarily from under center. In 2016, running primarily out of shotgun, Hyde was a much more efficient runner, and his Rushing NEP per carry bested the league average.

Similarly, Hyde's 35.83% Success Rate in 2017 was well shy of the collective 42.37% from the other running backs on the 49ers' roster. Matt Breida, Kyle Juszczyk, and Raheem Mostert combined for a Rushing NEP per carry of -0.01, as well.

In 2016, when Hyde recorded a -0.01 Rushing NEP per carry and a Success Rate greater than 40.00%, other 49ers running backs put up marks of -0.22 and 34.85%.

If Hyde can run from the shotgun, he should be able to regain his rushing efficiency.

2018 Outlook

Going to the Browns and their new offensive coordinator, Todd Haley, has the potential to be big for Hyde.

Additionally, the Browns -- despite ranking 32nd in Adjusted Passing NEP per play in 2017 -- owned the 4th-most efficient rushing offense by our metrics. Even with the retirement of Hall of Famer Joe Thomas, the Browns should still field a solid offensive line.

Overall, with a dual threat at quarterback in Tyrod Taylor, an improvement in offensive line, and a game plan suited for him, Hyde is positioned for success in Cleveland, which could include a third-straight top-20 fantasy running back season with upside for a second-straight top-12 finish.