Harper: Why Saxby is watching his back

Saturday

Nov 24, 2012 at 12:19 AM

Charlie Harper

National pundits are falling all over themselves trying to establish who will be in the presidential horse race for 2016.

Meanwhile in Congress, those elected in 2010 are still trying to solve the fiscal cliff before the new year and the class of 2012 takes over. With much remaining to be done, Georgia Sen. Saxby Chambliss continues to try to turn his Gang of Six into a Gang of 60.

At the same time, Chambliss is watching his back. The race for 2014, when Chambliss will stand for re-election, is forming now.

Joshua Miller of Roll Call, the insider's newspaper of Capitol Hill, frames the race rather nicely in a story posted earlier this week. In it he calls Chambliss "arguably the senator most exposed to a primary challenge."

He quotes conservative activists such as the Tea Party Patriots Debbie Dooley as saying Chambliss is "not very popular among conservatives in the grass roots." Virginia Galloway was a bit more harsh. She stated "sometimes when he sees himself being a statesman, conservatives see him as being a sellout."

Those are tough words for a two-term senator who was once the darling of Republicans when he took away a Democratic U.S. Senate seat from former Sen. Max Cleland.

Chambliss was virtually anointed by George W. Bush in his first Senate Republican primary and handily defeated longtime Republican activist Bob Irvin, as Republican leaders and rank-and-file members fell in line behind the president. Now, 12 years later, many of those activists appear restless.

Sixth District Congressman Tom Price of Roswell is the subject of the most speculation as a potential challenger to Chambliss.

A medical doctor who has been at the leader of the fight against the president's health care reform law, Price recently lost his bid to become House Conference Chairman against a candidate backed by Speaker John Boehner - a close friend of Chambliss.

Price has spent several years positioning himself as an outsider in Washington, and, to some extent, in Georgia as well. He was the only Georgia congressman who backed Karen Handel over Nathan Deal in the 2010 primary. He recently hired Herman Cain's presidential press spokesperson Ellen Carmichael, who works the Tea Party crowd through social media quite handily.

He rejected an offer from Boehner to take a ceremonial leadership position if he would end his challenge for the House Conference Chair, demonstrating he will stand up to authority. This boosts his credibility with those who would consider supporting a primary challenge.

Price, however, has been mainstream enough in Congress that his candidacy would not likely be considered fringe, and thus not necessarily a threat to Republicans losing this Senate seat to a yet unidentified Democrat. But another possible Republican challenger has Democrats motivated to find an "A-team" candidate, in case this race develops along the lines of recent Senate races in Indiana and Missouri.

Congressman Paul Broun has been sending signals that he is considering a primary challenge against Chambliss. Broun recently made news for a speech at a church, where he proclaimed evolution as "lies from the pit of hell."

Broun remains popular with social conservatives and strict constitutionalists. He is the antithesis of Chambliss' efforts to work across the aisle.

The race would be a study in contrast and likely determine the future of the Republican party in Georgia, and possibly give Democrats a jump start on rebuilding their party.

Is the Broun rumor credible? Broun's own office refuses to tamp it down.

If Price or Broun chooses to run for U.S. Senate, it will be Georgia's headline political story for the next two years. If both run, it could change much of Georgia's political landscape, opening two safe GOP seats for competition.

Chambliss and the rest of Congress have a week's Thanksgiving break before returning to Washington and a four-week grind to find solutions to the fiscal cliff.

What is in that solution will likely determine if Chambliss has competition in the GOP primary, and, if so, by whom.

Charlie Harper lives in Atlanta and edits the Peach Pundit political blog.