We keep "our age in FI". Conservative allocation. 40/60. We can withstand a bad bear market and lose 15% of port. My problem is that I'll want to seriously over-rebalance to 60/40 if that happens. I'll resist the temptation.

I remember that before the crash in 2000 everybody was aware of how nuts the market was, but they were making so much money every day that nobody wanted to get out. Then they all got creamed. This time, everybody is aware of how nuts the market is and making more noise about getting out. But I'm not sure how many are actually doing it. Mr. Market is a tricky b******d and is sure to mislead as many people as possible before hammer-time.

May you have the hindsight to know where you've been, The foresight to know where you're going, And the insight to know when you've gone too far. ~ Irish Blessing

I remember that before the crash in 2000 everybody was aware of how nuts the market was, but they were making so much money every day that nobody wanted to get out. Then they all got creamed. This time, everybody is aware of how nuts the market is and making more noise about getting out. But I'm not sure how many are actually doing it. Mr. Market is a tricky b******d and is sure to mislead as many people as possible before hammer-time.

If it makes you feel better, I rebalanced two days ago to bring my AA back in line. Does that count as getting out?

I’ve been expecting a crash for years. I was obviously wrong. It’s really unpredictable so it’s best to hold stocks and bonds and rebalance at highs and lows. Your savings rate is really all you have to worry about. The market is out of our control.

The crash is delayed yet one more day but when it comes hopefully it is one step backward after 3 steps forward.
A couple weeks ago $10,000. was sitting around doing nothing,I stuck it with an "invest by mail" slip in the post paid envelop and to my consternation the market kept jumping up before the transaction posted but it's still going up!

I'm curious as to why so many investors seem more worried about an outright crash than a grinding, prolonged 20+% decline. Money seems to just vaporize in a sharp drop and that has a significant emotional aspect to it. But a slow and demoralizing decline doesn't seem to capture the imagination. After all the market has had a slow, steady incline this year, so maybe slow and steady is the era we're in for whatever reason (in both directions).

Perhaps with a more gradual decline there is the illusion that the investor will have time to recognize and adjust to the drop and get out while the getting's relatively good? But how do you know when it has started and when it will end, especially if it is so gradual? The declining market will come to seem like the new normal and lots of investors may sour on stocks. Our pessimistic views will continue to be confirmed week in and week out, imprinting on our brains the expectation of further disheartening declines. I think that's an even scarier scenario than a crash, yet so many posts here are about crashes. Under which scenario are investors more likely to deviate from the course: the crash or the slow decline?

A Boglehead can stay the course longer than the market can stay irrational. It's impossible to have a bubble in common sense.

If you put your mind to it there are a lot of reasons to think a crash may be coming soon. That wall of worry is always tall and I could have easily talked myself into the next crash many times over the last 25 years of my investing experience but I'm glad I just kept plugging along and hoping for the best.

Of course there is a crash coming... the problem is no one knows when nor its magnitude.

In 1996, Alan Greenspan warned about "Irrational exuberance" because signs of a market bubble were already evident. Had you gotten out of the market at that time, you would have missed a 140% rise in your stock portfolio (US Total Market) before the ensuing crash in early 2000. If you had stayed put and held on through the dot com bubble crash and subsequent 3-year US market decline, you would still have been up 50% at the end of 2002 relative to what your portfolio was worth in 1996. There is a penalty for getting out too early.

The key is to have enough high quality bonds (US treasury) to allow you to sleep well even if there is a crash. Then let your portfolio ride it out.

These "market crash" threads are getting more and more annoying in my personal experience when they become unbearable they market will be ripe for a crash.
We could probably create a fear index out of these threads..
BTW OP checkout the "US stocks in free fall" thread.