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Scott plans $100M campaign vs. Crist

Scott's campaign calculations call for $100 million in the campaign to defeat Crist. | AP Photo

Several Scott strategists declined to comment on the governor’s plans. But Scott pollster and strategist Tony Fabrizio didn’t deny that the campaigns calculations call for a $100 million effort against Crist.

That anticipated spending could make the 2014 governor’s race one of the costliest gubernatorial races in U.S. history. The most expensive nonpresidential election to date is the 2010 California governor’s race, in which former eBay CEO Meg Whitman spent more than $143 million of her own money only to lose to Democrat Jerry Brown.

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Crist, who currently leads in Democratic primary polling, has not said definitively that he will run for governor again in 2014. At least a handful of other Democrats are considering the race, including former Miami Mayor Manny Diaz, state Sen. Nan Rich and former Florida Chief Financial Officer Alex Sink, the 2010 Democratic nominee.

Of all the races looming in the 2014 midterms, Scott’s may be the most important prize for both parties. Republicans have held a lock on Florida’s statewide offices since 2010 and maintained a comfortable grip on the Legislature even as Obama won the state in November.

Now, Scott is the most endangered incumbent governor leading a presidential mega-swing state and Democrats are determined to take him down.

Polls show Scott is in a dangerous predicament: a Quinnipiac University poll in December pegged his approval rating at just 36 percent. Last month, the Democratic firm Public Policy Polling put that number slightly lower, at 33 percent. PPP found Scott trailing Crist by 14 percentage points in a general election.

That leaves little room for error for even the most sophisticated Scott operation heading into the midterms.

Curry, the party chairman, argued Scott has an opening to shore up his position now that the presidential election is over. Florida voters may have more bandwidth to consider an argument from Scott focused on the improving economy and specific policy achievements during his tenure.

“If you talk about what’s happened under his term thus far and you talk about his policies, Floridians react positively to that,” Curry said. “He was so viciously attacked in 2010 and then when Florida began to turn around during his term, the presidential campaigns and all the negativity surrounding both sides just drowned out our message in Florida. Now we have an opportunity to tell our story.”

Scott’s critics in both parties are skeptical. After all, it’s not as if this is the first time Scott has tried to regain political traction in Florida. But his personal favorability numbers have been grim ever since he took office; when the RPOF ran TV ads last year touting Scott’s accomplishments, it made little difference in public polling.

And over the past few weeks, Scott has charted a jagged course on the state budget issues that will define much of 2013. After pushing deep spending cuts during his first two years in office, he now proposes to increase teacher salaries and give bonuses to other public employees — a move that has perplexed both embittered Democratic constituencies and small-government Republicans.