It’s Not Going Awaaa-ay, contd.

To summarize the current situation, as of 6:00 AM GMT on 26 May 2009 a total of 12 954 cases and 92 deaths of influenza A (H1N1) infection have been officially reported to WHO from 46 countries, up from 12 515 confirmed cases and 91 deaths from 46 countries on 23 May 2009.

According to a later PAHO update (from 18:00 GMT-4) a total of 12 536 confirmed cases and 95 deaths are attributable to the novel influenza A (H1N1) virus infection in 15 countries in the Americas region. There is mention of a case in Chile with a history of travel to the Dominican Republic. According to newswires today (26 May 2009) and earlier (see prior ProMED-mail posts), there have been several cases in other countries with a history of travel to the Dominican Republic, even though the Dominican Republic has not officially confirmed any cases of influenza A (H1N1) as yet.

According to newswires, Singapore has confirmed its 1st case and New York City has confirmed 2 additional deaths attributable to influenza A (H1N1) infection — both in individuals with history of preexisting diseases.

For a map of reported confirmed cases, worldwide, as of 06:00 GMT 26 May 2009, see here.

Mod.MPP

So: with >10x the number of confirmed cases than there were suspected cases in Mexico at the start of the outbreak, we have 92 deaths in ~13 000 cases. This means the case fatality rate is 0.7% – compared to the accepted figure of 0.2% for normal flu. Not much different to the previous figure I calculated just 9 days ago – and it’s still spreading. 4000 more cases in that period.

We’re in for a long winter, here in the southern hemisphere…and us without a vaccine. Ah, well.

3 Responses to “It’s Not Going Awaaa-ay, contd.”

Yes, and practically 20 000 cumulative confirmed cases today. Transmission still going unchecked in the USA – about 500 new confirmed cases per day for the last week, and Australia looking like the the next big one.

I’ve been graphing the WHO data for fun for the last couple of weeks, and if things carry on like this I reckon there’ll be more than 100 000 confirmed cases by the end of June. But then again, I’m not an epidemiologist…..

So you’re also morbidly obsessive, Dorian…good to know I’m not the only one! I frightened a roomful (~200) of general practitioners the other day with stats from NORMAL flu: I reckon you’ll see a serious uptick in flu vaccine use in Cape Town soon!

But I think the next pandemic is with us: just wait for the southern hemisphere stats to start rising – IF anyone’s got the kit to look.