Leading into Saturday’s games, Sporting News’ Matt Hayes takes a look at that matchup, as well as four more things to watch this weekend, including how Texas will respond to getting punched in the mouth and how Nebraska and UCLA are honoring Nick Pasquale.

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Warning flag

Let’s get something straight before we go any further: that Texas A&M defense you’ve watched play patty-cake the last two weeks? It’s nothing close to what Virginia Tech put on the field in the season opener against Alabama.

That defense that couldn’t stop Rice—that gave up a combined 59 points to the Owls and FCS Sam Houston State—isn’t going to magically get better because the biggest game of the season has arrived.

Here’s all you need to know about the SEC showdown between Alabama and Texas A&M: the Aggies gave up a combined 546 rushing yards to Rice and Sammy State.

Five-flipping-hundred-forty-six.

Take a wild stab in the dark what Alabama does best? Since 2008, the Tide is 51-0 when rushing for more than 140 yards. They may reach that early in the second quarter.

Don’t buy that narrative that the Alabama offensive line is “struggling” to replace three stars from last fall. Or that the Tide can’t run with consistency, which means it can’t throw play action, which means Alabama can’t possibly win a big game.

By the end of this season, Virginia Tech will have a top 10 in the nation defense; a unit that legendary defensive coordinator Bud Foster said this offseason could be one of his best. So all of a sudden, after the Tide find a way to grind out a 25-point win in the first game with a rebuilt offensive line, warning flags are flying.

One thing to consider: those three return touchdowns (punt, kick, interception) prevented the Alabama offense from getting three more possessions and potentially wearing down the Virginia Tech defense with—wait for it—a power run game.

Way too many people are way over-thinking this. Just look at the tape from the Rice and SHS games. That, ladies and gentlemen, is a warning flag. The Tide will win and get revenge from last year’s loss in Tuscaloosa, because they will physically maul the Aggies at the point of attack.

Why no Johnny Manziel in the aforementioned argument, you ask? Because despite all that Manziel can do—and he’ll be even better this fall—he can’t tackle. He can’t get big on the defensive interior and take up space.

At some point in Saturday’s game, Alabama coach Nick Saban’s 240-something days of preparing for the one player that made his defense look silly like no one ever has, is going to pay off. The Tide defense may give up a few big plays early, but they’ll eventually figure it out.

And when they do, it will be up to the Texas A&M defense to get the Alabama offense off the field and get the ball back to Manziel to try to counter. And that, everyone, will not be a good look.

It’s easy to jump on Texas now, easy to proclaim the end of Mack Brown in Austin after Ole Miss rolls into town and puts a burnt orange knot on the Longhorns’ head.

But understand this: Is the Ole Miss defense really 35 points better from last season?

The last time these two played, the Rebels gave up 66 points and lost by five touchdowns. Now, all of a sudden, we’re supposed to think the Ole Miss defense is that much better because of one player—freshman DE Robert Nkemdiche?

If Texas loses this game it won’t be because Ole Miss suddenly got that much better on defense. It will be because the Longhorns—after three previous seasons of mediocrity under Brown; after one horrifically emasculating loss to BYU last week cost their defensive coordinator his job—will have mentally tapped out.

That’s the danger right now at Texas. There’s plenty of talent—even with Case McCoy playing QB for the injured David Ash—to beat Ole Miss and a majority of the teams remaining on the schedule. The Longhorns have the players, they have to ability.

Then again, as the wonderfully eloquent Mike Tyson once said, “everyone has a plan until they get punched in the mouth.”

I’m just going to warn everyone right now. Thomas Tyner played last week for Oregon.

Why is this significant, you ask? Because the freshman tailback is the most explosive player on the Oregon roster next to some guy named De’Anthony Thomas. In fact, many on the Oregon staff feel Tyner could be the best running back the Ducks have had in the Blur Ball era.

He had four carries for 51 yards last week against Virginia, and you better believe his carries will increase this week against Tennessee and as the season progresses. You don’t sit a dynamic player like that; you get him the ball every possible way you can.