I think Anderson Dos Santos is going to be super chalky with that line movement and I really don’t think he scores very well even in a win. He’s not a good wrestler and even if he is able to get Ewell down a couple times, I don’t think he finishes him. So I get that play as a bet at the original dog odds, but for DK I see him only scoring in the high 60s/low 70s if he wins. So while I’ll have some exposure, I don’t think he compares to recent line value plays like Grant Dawson or Frank Camacho. I really don’t like this fight at all. Reminds me of Chookagian/JoJo from last card.

I actually think Wiman, Meatball, and Randy Brown are all kind of sneaky punt plays here. Like 1 of those 3 wins outright.

I don’t get why Lipski is such a big fav – she was mediocre against Calderwood and is really a one trick pony (striker). I see this fight being similar to her first. The UFC is clearly trying to push her as another pretty face like Van Zant – but like VanZant shes not that great of a fighter either.

Yeah that was my initial read on Lipski. But I think it was more like her cardio drained really quickly once she had to grapple more than her grappling was just bad. She seems like she’s stronger, faster, more explosive than McCann … though I could see her gassing out in the 3rd with McCann stealing a decision.

I’m actually starting to build more lineups with Lipski just because I think she will be the lowest owned of the 9k fighters and has an opportunity to land a lot of strikes and possibly end up with top position at points in the fight.

I really appreciate any information/analysis I can get for UFCDFS… cause it seems hard to find compared to NBA/MLB/NFL. Props to someclevername for posting early. So here’s kind of a gameplay theory:

Doesn’t it seem like every contest there’s one fighter between 7.9k-8.3k that was must own for the optimal? Andrade, RDA, Camacho, Wineland (& Cejudo) are all recent examples. Yeah, when it’s a main event at that price range it’s a no-brainer that you’re going to need exposure… but if this was a thing… who do yinz think is the fighter in that range for this card?

Had anyone heard of PrizePicks? It’s parlays for fantasy points (over/unders). They have MMA and it seems more cash likely apart from DraftKings since you aren’t going head to head and you don’t have to pick 6 fighters. $10>$100 $20>$200 etc if you get 4 correct. (2 minimum picks 4 max) if you try it use my promo code :) 0119985

-Not a fan of this card but above all else Zombie leaps out as a must play, probably chalk? Worth a few lineups to go Moicano just on theory.
-Agree heavily with Molly/Lipski fight analysis here and have a hard time seeing this not go to a decision. More because how tough Molly is than the skills of the Violence Q. Gas tank is an issue. – Gonna be hard for me not to play Winn. Don’t mind seeing Spicely back yet again, with his sneaky control game. Not here, yuck. Think this is priced right. – How rusty is Wiman? 5 years ago this would’ve been the pick in every lineup. Can he handle the athleticism and angles of Pena?
He has him huge in fight iq and was once tough as hell but feels too risky to take here. I probably will anyways dammit. – Like Bam Bam but too expensive for someone who mentally retired then mentally unretired. Don’t trust the heart of a guy who is hugely heart (has underappreciated skill too but heart first). Staying away. – Holland/Alessio little hard to read. Everything says Holland by overpowering but the Italian enigma could keep the powerful ground hater at distance. – Ewell should lose but this could easily go to dec. – Ige never scores high for me when I pick him – Most of the other fights are meh

It’s embarrassing to admit, but the thought to post this earlier in the week has never crossed my mind lol. I’ve always wondered why the MMA threads don’t get a lot of love and then I go post it 20 minutes before the fights start lol. So, good idea vogaman! I’ll put it up Tues/Wed from here on out.

I’ve seen those videos that Brett Appley posts about them but haven’t tried. Making money with it?

Hit a nice 4 man parlay in the finals a couple of times but Morales screwed my parlays last week. They usually post MMA points on Thursday and adjust it as it gets closer. Once you submit though u can’t edit so if you get a nice line you’re chilling. Shevchenko/Suarez opened at 75/85 for over under which was cash. They later bumped up to 110/115 something like that on the day of the fight

Had anyone heard of PrizePicks? It’s parlays for fantasy points (over/unders). They have MMA and it seems more cash likely apart from DraftKings since you aren’t going head to head and you don’t have to pick 6 fighters. $10>$100 $20>$200 etc if you get 4 correct. (2 minimum picks 4 max) if you try it use my promo code :) 0119985

I get cold sweats whenever I see the word “parlay” but this sounds interesting. If I end up joining I’ll use your code – I respect the hustle lol.

I love KZ but I’m trying to find a way he wins this. Didn’t Moicano piece up Kattar? KZ is going to want a brawl and I see Moicano being too disciplined and technical to allow that to happen. He will stay on the outside, he will do work going backwards, he will counter – now the later rounds could get interesting but I won’t hang my hat on that. I can’t hold the Aldo fight against Moicano – a variety of reasons could have kept him from his A game that night, not the least of which being he was fighting Jose Aldo.

Also worth noting – KZ was on the receiving end of an absolutely devastating KO against Yair in November. I remember this well, life is so cruel. An up elbow with like a second* to go. Last guy on my team, winning the fight and gets demolished with a second left. Sadness. That’s the fight biz though. Will it affect KZ going forward? Maybe 0% and maybe a lot %. Just don’t know but it tilts the scale, for me, towards Moicano a lil bit more.

Yeah, the only way I see Zombie winning is with Moicano really slowing down in the last two rounds. Moicano’s pretty much on his bike the entire fight so maybe he’s a lot more stationary come round 4? I just see him piecing KZ up to the tune of 150 sig strikes by the end; I mean Zombie will eat jabs and leg kicks to counter… and that’s basically all Moicano wants to do.

The fight no one talked about so far (that I think is important to get right for this card) is Aguilar/Ige. Initially I was all in on Ige, but man Aguilar is really solid. He seems like he’ll be physically stronger and hit way harder. I’ve seen people bring up the Arce/Ige fight, but I don’t think Aguilar is all that similar to someone like Arce.

Where I’m at now, I think Ige WILL get the takedown and if he does, he can get the sub; and if he can’t Aguilar wins a UD. Probably have like 15% Aguilar and 30% Ige. Aguilar is going to be higher owned, but have a way lower ceiling, though he probably has a greater chance of winning.

Only 11 fights… hoping we don’t end with a log jam at the top like that Cerrone/Iaquinta card.

I wouldn’t be surprised if very few underdogs win (period) on this card. I was mostly off of Lineker and Font, both, but having to redo those lineups makes me feel better. Feel like McCann has probably the same floor and upside as Font so could see a lot of people going down to her (or up to Di Chirico). I want to think Crowder has a chance to grapple his way to a boring decision, but he’s really awkward and stiff, and I really have no clue what to expect from Rozenstruik’s TDD. Heavyweight fights usually aren’t DFS gold like we’d like to think. It could be two gassed guys clinching against the fence and circling for 3 rounds.

At least this gives me a chance to hedge off of some fighters that I have too much exposure to.

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