Abstract

Risk assessment studies of potential CO 2 sequestration projects consider many factors, including the possibility of brine and/or CO 2 leakage from the storage reservoir. Detailed multiphase reactive transport simulations have been developed to predict the impact of such leaks on shallow groundwater quality; however, these simulations are computationally expensive and thus difficult to directly embed in a probabilistic risk assessment analysis. Here we present a process for developing computationally fast reduced-order models which emulate key features of the more detailed reactive transport simulations. A large ensemble of simulations that take into account uncertainty in aquifer characteristics and CO 2/brine leakage scenarios were performed. Twelve simulation outputs of interest were used to develop response surfaces (RSs) using a MARS (multivariate adaptive regression splines) algorithm (Milborrow, 2015). A key part of this study is to compare different measures of ROM accuracy. We then show that for some computed outputs, MARS performs very well in matching the simulation data. The capability of the RS to predict simulation outputs for parameter combinations not used in RS development was tested using cross-validation. Again, for some outputs, these results were quite good. For other outputs, however, the method performs relatively poorly. Performance was best formore » predicting the volume of depressed-pH-plumes, and was relatively poor for predicting organic and trace metal plume volumes. We believe several factors, including the non-linearity of the problem, complexity of the geochemistry, and granularity in the simulation results, contribute to this varied performance. The reduced order models were developed principally to be used in probabilistic performance analysis where a large range of scenarios are considered and ensemble performance is calculated. We demonstrate that they effectively predict the ensemble behavior. But, the performance of the RSs is much less accurate when used to predict time-varying outputs from a single simulation. If an analysis requires only a small number of scenarios to be investigated, computationally expensive physics-based simulations would likely provide more reliable results. Finally, if the aggregate behavior of a large number of realizations is the focus, as will be the case in probabilistic quantitative risk assessment, the methodology presented here is relatively robust.« less

@article{osti_1396144,
title = {Reduced order models for assessing CO 2 impacts in shallow unconfined aquifers},
author = {Keating, Elizabeth H. and Harp, Dylan H. and Dai, Zhenxue and Pawar, Rajesh J.},
abstractNote = {Risk assessment studies of potential CO2 sequestration projects consider many factors, including the possibility of brine and/or CO2 leakage from the storage reservoir. Detailed multiphase reactive transport simulations have been developed to predict the impact of such leaks on shallow groundwater quality; however, these simulations are computationally expensive and thus difficult to directly embed in a probabilistic risk assessment analysis. Here we present a process for developing computationally fast reduced-order models which emulate key features of the more detailed reactive transport simulations. A large ensemble of simulations that take into account uncertainty in aquifer characteristics and CO2/brine leakage scenarios were performed. Twelve simulation outputs of interest were used to develop response surfaces (RSs) using a MARS (multivariate adaptive regression splines) algorithm (Milborrow, 2015). A key part of this study is to compare different measures of ROM accuracy. We then show that for some computed outputs, MARS performs very well in matching the simulation data. The capability of the RS to predict simulation outputs for parameter combinations not used in RS development was tested using cross-validation. Again, for some outputs, these results were quite good. For other outputs, however, the method performs relatively poorly. Performance was best for predicting the volume of depressed-pH-plumes, and was relatively poor for predicting organic and trace metal plume volumes. We believe several factors, including the non-linearity of the problem, complexity of the geochemistry, and granularity in the simulation results, contribute to this varied performance. The reduced order models were developed principally to be used in probabilistic performance analysis where a large range of scenarios are considered and ensemble performance is calculated. We demonstrate that they effectively predict the ensemble behavior. But, the performance of the RSs is much less accurate when used to predict time-varying outputs from a single simulation. If an analysis requires only a small number of scenarios to be investigated, computationally expensive physics-based simulations would likely provide more reliable results. Finally, if the aggregate behavior of a large number of realizations is the focus, as will be the case in probabilistic quantitative risk assessment, the methodology presented here is relatively robust.},
doi = {10.1016/j.ijggc.2016.01.008},
journal = {International Journal of Greenhouse Gas Control},
number = C,
volume = 46,
place = {United States},
year = {2016},
month = {1}
}

The physicochemical processes associated with CO 2 leakage into shallow aquifer systems are complex and span multiple spatial and time scales. Continuum-scale numerical models that faithfully represent the underlying pore-scale physics are required to predict the long-term behavior and aid in risk analysis regarding regulatory and management decisions. This study focuses on benchmarking the numerical simulator, FEHM, with intermediate-scale column experiments of CO 2 gas evolution in homogeneous and heterogeneous sand configurations. Inverse modeling was conducted to calibrate model parameters and determine model sensitivity to the observed steady-state saturation profiles. It is shown that FEHM is a powerful tool thatmore » is capable of capturing the experimentally observed out ow rates and saturation profiles. Moreover, FEHM captures the transition from single- to multi-phase flow and CO 2 gas accumulation at interfaces separating sands. We also derive a simple expression, based on Darcy's law, for the pressure at which CO 2 free phase gas is observed and show that it reliably predicts the location at which single-phase flow transitions to multi-phase flow.« less

We developed an integrated framework of combined batch experiments and reactive transport simulations to quantify water-rock-CO 2 interactions and arsenic (As) mobilization responses to CO 2 and/or saline water leakage into USDWs. Experimental and simulation results suggest that when CO 2 is introduced, pH drops immediately that initiates release of As from clay minerals. Calcite dissolution can increase pH slightly and cause As re-adsorption. Thus, the mineralogy of the USDW is ultimately a determining factor of arsenic fate and transport. Salient results suggest that: (1) As desorption/adsorption from/onto clay minerals is the major reaction controlling its mobilization, and clay mineralsmore » could mitigate As mobilization with surface complexation reactions; (2) dissolution of available calcite plays a critical role in buffering pH; (3) high salinity in general hinders As release from minerals; and (4) the magnitude and quantitative uncertainty of As mobilization are predicated on the values of reaction rates and surface area of calcite, adsorption surface areas and equilibrium constants of clay minerals, and cation exchange capacity. Results of this study are intended to improve ability to quantify risks associated with potential leakage of reservoir fluids into shallow aquifers, in particular the possible environmental impacts of As mobilization at carbon sequestration sites.« less

In order to assess the risks of Geologic Carbon Sequestration (GCS), it is crucial to understand the fundamental physicochemical processes that may occur if and when stored CO 2 leaks upward from a deep storage reservoir into the shallow subsurface. Intermediate-scale experiments allow for improved understanding of the multiphase evolution processes that control CO 2 migration behaviour in the subsurface, because the boundary conditions, initial conditions, and porous media parameters can be better controlled and monitored in the laboratory than in field settings. For this study, a large experimental test bed was designed to mimic a cross-section of a shallowmore » aquifer with layered geologic heterogeneity. As water with aqueous CO 2 was injected into the system to mimic a CO 2-charged water leakage scenario, the spatiotemporal evolution of the multiphase CO 2 plume was monitored. Similar experiments were performed with two different sand combinations to assess the relative effects of different types of geologic facies transitions on the CO 2 evolution processes. Significant CO 2 attenuation was observed in both scenarios, but by fundamentally different mechanisms. When the porous media layers had very different permeabilities, attenuation was caused by local accumulation (structural trapping) and slow re-dissolution of gas phase CO 2. When the permeability difference between the layers was relatively small, on the other hand, gas phase continually evolved over widespread areas near the leading edge of the aqueous plume, which also attenuated CO 2 migration. In conclusion, this improved process understanding will aid in the development of models that could be used for effective risk assessment and monitoring programs for GCS projects.« less

Complex fluid-rock interactions can occur during the injection of carbon dioxide (CO 2) into saline aquifers for sequestration, which may affect CO 2 injectivity and storage capacity. A comprehensive reactive transport model is established to analyze salt precipitation, CO 2-water-rock geochemical reactions, and their effects on reservoir physical properties and injectivity. In addition, sensitivity analyses are conducted to investigate the main factors that affect fluid-rock interactions and injectivity with relevance for site selection for CO 2 storage. Results show that the back flow of formation water not only affects the salt precipitation but also affects the CO 2-water-rock geochemical reactions,more » resulting in salt and calcite precipitations mainly occurring in the dry-out zone. However, most of the mineral dissolution/precipitation caused by CO 2-water-rock reaction occurs in the two-phase and aqueous-phase zones, and their effect on reservoir porosity and permeability are small. A considerable amount of sodium chloride precipitates in the dry-out zone as brine is drawn by capillary action into this zone, with significant consequences for porosity, permeability and injectivity. The injection rate, salinity, capillary pressure–saturation relationships, and reservoir permeability strongly affect the distribution of salt precipitation. Finally, moderate injection rates, salinities, capillary pressures, and permeabilities all lead to favorable CO 2 injectivity.« less