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In his presentation on "Fear of Liftoff: Uncertainty, Rules and Discretion in Monetary Policy Normalization," Athanasios Orphanides reviews the four most recent U.S. recessions and the Federal Reserve's corresponding monetary policy actions. He then explores some of the reasons why the Federal Reserve has not begun to remove the historic levels of monetary policy accommodation implemented during and after the Great Recession of 2007-2009. He explains the importance of having an independent central bank with a clear mandate and concludes with making a case for the Federal Reserve to design and apply a simple policy rule to help achieve optimal economic outcomes.

The Homer Jones Memorial Lecture Series honors those who exemplify the highest qualities of leadership in economics and public policy. As research director, and later as senior vice president at the St. Louis Fed, Homer Jones (1906-1986) played a major role in developing the Bank as a leader in monetary research and statistics.