Monday, April 30, 2007

The "Supersize Me" era of home building might be coming to an end after a three-decade run.

The size of the average new home swelled by about 50 per cent from 1973 to 2006, but this trend toward expansion will probably be ending in the next decade, according to an elite panel of 135 builders, architects and designers surveyed by the National Association of Home Builders.

In a report released last month, these residential-construction experts said the downsizing tendencies of aging baby boomers, soaring home prices in much of the country and a fundamental change in consumer tastes will dampen future demand for ever-larger homes.

"People kept getting more and more and more space, but felt dissatisfied because the space was not filling a void," said Sarah Susanka, co-author of Inside the Not So Big House.

"The `moreness' they were looking for had nothing to do with size" but rather with the craving for more intimate spaces they could use in more practical ways, she said.

The average size of a new single-family home in the first three months of 2006 was 2,459 square feet, up from 1,660 in 1973.

The size grew even as the average family size shrank, said Gopal Ahluwalia, staff vice-president for research at the builders' association. "So it's not as if people were buying bigger homes for functional use of space. It was about lifestyle. They were buying for the same reasons people buy expensive cars: because they could afford it.''

But a new single-family home will most likely average 2,300 to 2,500 square feet in 2015, as it has since 2001.

Instead of focusing on space, homeowners will turn their attention to what makes that space special.

"People are not necessarily looking for square footage but for a home with a higher level of finish and detail," said Barry Glantz, an architect in St. Louis. "They want granite countertops, Sub-Zero refrigerators, Viking ranges, ceiling treatments, floor treatments. They want all the bells and whistles.''

Not everyone agrees that there is a trend or, if there is, that it's here to stay.

Among them is Kira McCarron, chief marketing officer for Toll Brothers, one of the nation's largest home builders.

McCarron said that during her 21-year tenure with the company, she's heard similar predictions about shrinking home sizes, particularly when consumers get spooked by rising energy costs. But these forecasts have not panned out in the past, she said.

"I don't believe the fundamental dream of bigger, better, more is going to end any time soon," McCarron said. "I think people do like nesting spaces, but I think they like them in their 4,000-square-foot houses. They like the idea of reading areas, where they can curl up in the morning and read the newspaper. But they want one for him, for her, for the kids.''