The Updated Exodus Theory and its Corollaries

Recommended Posts

I posted this on reddit yesterday, but I would like to open the discussion here as well. It is an up to date, consolidated form of the Exodus Theory and other ideas I derived from it. Any input would be greatly appreciated!

1. The Core Theory: Jon Snow and the Flight to Essos

The original concept is simple: Following the fall of the Wall and Stannis's failure to fulfill the Azor Ahai prophecy, a newly resurrectedJon Snow realizes the North is no longer able to stop the Others and instead decides to lead his people to Essos on the Manderly Fleet. Once there, he will use a loan from the Iron Bank of Braavos to buy food for his people while they look for a place to settle in Andalos.

How did I come to this conclusion? Easy - by breaking down the narrative structure of the series and trying to work out the most efficient way for all outstanding plot lines to fit within the remaining two volumes. You see, for the first three books, the series follows three largely independent stories:

The threat from beyond the Wall (the Ice story)

The war for Westeros (the so-called "central" story)

Dany's rise to power (the Fire story)

Individual characters (such as Stannis, Tyrion, Arya, etc.) can sometimes weave from one story to another and even hang on the side for a while, but sooner or later each of them gravitates towards one of these three.

The principles of good writing dictate that these stories must eventually converge, or at least intersect in a meaningful way, in order to justify being part of the same series. Furthermore, since Jon and Dany are the main characters of the titular "Ice" and "Fire" stories, it would seem that their convergence is the most important.

The commonly accepted scenario is that this convergence will be achieved once Dany arrives in Westeros, This is why the vast majority of the fan base is convinced that this is an absolutely mandatory plot point, in spite of the fact that ADwD goes out of its way to delay her departure. After all, George's hard work throughout the series managed to create some deeply rooted subconscious expectations:

Dany is on the move throughout most of her story, so it stands to reason that she will keep moving until she eventually reaches Westeros.

By comparison, Jon is relatively static; his story revolves around defending the Wall and the North, so we all expect him to stay there and do that until the end.

The war for Westeros seems to be central to the series. So far, it had the most characters, the most chapters, the most complex story, and it left the largest impact on the world. It is central even geographically, set in between the Ice story to the north and the Fire story to the east. It is easy to assume that the other two stories will just blend into this one, and even that the Iron Throne is the endgame of the series.

However, one should be careful with deeply rooted expectations. After all, George likes nothing more than building them up only to subvert them:

I’ve said in many interviews that I like my fiction to be unpredictable. I like there to be considerable suspense. [...] I killed Ned because everybody thinks he’s the hero and that, sure, he’s going to get into trouble, but then he’ll somehow get out of it. The next predictable thing is to think his eldest son is going to rise up and avenge his father. And everybody is going to expect that. So immediately [killing Robb] became the next thing I had to do.

G.R.R.M

Although it might seem to be the most obvious choice, as of ADwD, Dany's arrival in Westeros is a very problematic path to convergence. She simply has too many plot points ahead of her to make this work in an organic way; things would need to be cut or sped up way beyond the series's usual pace in order to fit the remaining narrative space.

Many of George's critics blamed him for creating this "mess" in Dance, but what if that was his plan all along? What if Dany has no reason to hurry, because Jon is set to meet her half-way? When you remove the veil from your eyes and reduce everything to the very simple puzzle of making the 3 main story lines converge, taking Jon to Dany instead of the other way around removes all the pressure of trying to fit all her supposed plot lines in two books.

And the result would be the ultimate triumvirate of subversions:

Dany will never set foot on Westeros.

Jon won't get to heroically defend the North, let alone get Winterfell.

The war for the Iron Throne won't be a game to be won by any main character, but a dire cautionary tale for everyone.

You might be asking yourselves: "Sure, this might work if you strip everything down to 3 generic stories, but does it still make sense if you start adding all the details back?" And the answer is YES! If we look back at ADwD, the required set up to make Jon's exodus to Essos feel planned and organic is there:

A lot of focus is placed on White Harbor and the Three Sisters, which would be the perfect points of departure for the Exodus. The Manderly fleet gets a few nods, to make sure the readers know it's there.

The loan agreement with Tycho Nestoris creates a link between Jon Snow and Braavos. Stannis's decision to send Justin Massey to Braavos with fArya does the same.

Mother Mole's prophecy speaks of "a fleet to take the free folk to safety across the narrow sea". We are led to believe that this refers either to the two Lyseni slave ships or the fleet from Eastwatch, but neither of them seems appropriate. It would be an epic twist if Mother Mole saw a vision of White Harbor but simply didn't know what to make of it and took it for Hardhome...

The wildling slaves freed by the Braavosi could serve as foreshadowing for an even greater number of refugees arriving there, as well as a source of information for the Sealord, ensuring he would somewhat understand the situation in the North when Jon comes to treat with him.

The book ended with Jon assassinated, Castle Black in shambles and no handy means to deal with an imminent attack from the Others. If they prove to be unstoppable and end pushing the survivors off the continent, it wouldn't feel forced in the slightest.

The two main PoV characters we are expected to have in the North, Asha and Davos, just so happen to be ship captains. They would fit right in describing the voyage at sea, and either one of them could easily be dispatched to a new location (Pentos, the Vale, etc.) once Jon's people get to Braavos.

The Exodus also fits thematically, on multiple levels:

A parallel between Jon and Mance.

A parallel between Jon and Nymeria.

A parallel between Jon and the original Targaryens, who left Valyria before the Doom.

A parallel between the refugees from the North (and later from other kingdoms) and the invasions of the Andals and the First Men.

It can be compared with the Manderlys' original flight from the Reach.

It underlines the differences between Jon and Stannis, since abandoning the realm to save the people would be the ultimate "bending so as not to break", and the opposite of what Stannis would do.

It adds weight to Jon's original refusal to accept the Stark castle from Stannis. "Winterfell belongs to the old gods" indeed...

But the truly beautiful thing about this theory is that once you take it seriously, everything else starts to fall into place. Essos gains purpose and Westeros is freed of a great deal of characters and plot lines (instead of being choked with them), so it becomes much easier to tell where most of the others are headed. This is why I must complete this post with a number of corollaries:

2. The First Corollary: Dany and the Conquest of Essos

Since the Exodus Theory removes the narrative need for Dany to reach Westeros, we can assume that we will be following her Conquest of Essos for the rest of the series. This is in line with her desire to eradicate slavery, as well as the foreshadowed fact that the Free Cities have grown complacent towards the Dothraki and might be vulnerable to them should they ever unite under a Khal(eesi) who is not so easily swayed by gifts.

Note that this doesn't necessarily mean that Dany the character will give up on her plans to eventually reclaim Westeros as well, just that freeing the slaves from the rest of Essos will be a priority. From her perspective, there would be no hurry to get to the ultimate prize; the character wouldn't know that the series is ending or that Westeros is facing impending doom, not until it is too late.

It might be also that the loyalty of the Dothraki depends on her ability to maintain the Stallion Who Mounts the World image, which would require the conquest of Essos (the one continent they are familiar with and desire) first and foremost. The Greyjoy story line in AFFC has established that even someone like Euron must give his people the low hanging fruit they want before he can push them towards greater goals. If it applies to the ironborn, why wouldn't it apply to the Dothraki as well?

Another argument in favor of staying is... fAegon. Many expect him to be an antagonist for Dany, but I believe she is just as likely to see him as her ticket out of some family obligations. If Dany wants to take Westeros, that is in part for the sake of her family: to avenge her gallant brother Rhaegar, Viserys who was a lesser man but nevertheless protected her while she was a child, the mother whose crown they had to sell for food, the father whose enemies called him mad and the Targaryen legacy as a whole.

If her gallant brother's son seemingly shows up to fulfill that role, and he is confident enough not to ask for her help, wouldn't she consider herself free of this obligation? Why butt in at all? After all, she is barren and wouldn't be able to continue the Targaryen line, either with her nephew or a husband of her own choice. And she has her own thing on in Essos...

That being settled, on to her plot.

In an interview from a few years ago, George said that Dany and Tyrion will intersect, but will spend most of the book apart. That leads me to believe that Dany will split her forces in two in order to take at least one of the Free Cities by surprise: She will take the bulk of her Dothraki north to Qohor, while another army, including Tyrion as a PoV, will take the Demon Road (now supplied by the subdued Ghiscari) to deal with Volantis.

Qohor is not important enough to warrant more than a post-sacking chapter, however, so Dany's arc in TWoW will focus on a different foe, more surprising, yet better set up in the previous books:Mellario Martell, seeking vengeance for her slain son, and, through her influence, Norvos.

Mellario Martell knows about Quentin's mission from Andrey Dalt, who was sent by Doran to convince her to help Dany and their son to return to Westeros (*to be explained in a future post). For that reason, she is likely to start as a potential ally, who will quickly become her prophesied "treason for blood" once she learns of Quentin's fate.

Without going into details,I predict that this whole arc will end with Dany in tears and Norvos in flames,and the whole disaster will resonate through Essos and influence the elections for the position of Sealord (soon to be opened up due to Ferrego Antaryon's failing health),setting up Braavos as Dany's main opponent in ADoS. This is where Arya's arc will converge with the rest of the story, as she is sent by the Faceless Men to act against Daenerys.

3. The Second Corollary: Other Waves of Refugees - fAegon, Arianne and Sansa

These three characters are the only ones whose plot lines are a bit harder to pinpoint under the Exodus premise (not because they don't fit, but because there are multiple viable options).In TWoW,fAegon's primaryrole is to start a major conflict in the South, ensuring that the rest of Westeros will be as incapable as the North to deal with the Others.

Whether he will survive the war is hard to tell, but whoever ends up leading his people in ADoS, be it him or Arianne, will be in a very similar position Jon was in a volume earlier... except now crossing the narrow sea will be a much greater challenge, and you will soon understand why.

Sansa will be in a similar situation in the Vale, unless she crosses earlier to reinforce Jon (this depends on how quickly her current arc unfolds and she manages to gain a position of power).

Rescuing either one or both of these groups will raise the emotional stakes for ADoS, and will be Jon and Dany's true mission.

4. The Third Corollary: The Role of the Villain(s)

For those who read the Forsaken sample chapter, it is clear that Euron Greyjoy is setting up to be an endgame level villain. Storms, visions, blood magic, sacrifice, and a knowledge few seem to accept or understand:

"Crow's Eye, you call me. Well, who has a keener eye than the crow? After every battle the crows come in their hundreds and their thousands to feast upon the fallen. A crow can espy death from afar.And I say that all of Westeros is dying.Those who follow me will feast until the end of their days."

His cool factor is high, but most people working with more conventional theories used to have a hard time understanding his role in the story. A foil for Dany's crossing seems a little insignificant, and a devil on her shoulder wouldn't last much longer either, since she eventually needs to ally with Jon.

The ironborn's power is at sea. Even with a dragon (which he will surely get), it would be hard to imagine Euron Greyjoy being a major threat inland.

Against people who are unarmed, hungry and desperate to escape the living dead, someone like Euron, flying on his dragon at the head of his terrible fleet of butchers, would be absolutely terrifying. And this is the role assigned to him under the Exodus Theory:a foil to all those who attempt to cross the narrow sea after Jon.

One possibility is that he will capture Sansa at sea, prompting a rescue attempt from Jon and Dany. Imagine a climactic battle in the middle of the Narrow Sea, with dragons wheeling in the stormy sky while Davos attempts to infiltrate the Silence and smuggle Sansa out... but these are ADoS ideas.

Before he can get to that, in TWoW, Euron will likely woo and marry Cersei. He is in a position to capture Doran Martell (those Water Gardens seem exposed!) and Aurane Waters to bring them to her as gifts, and judging by the Forsaken, he seems to have the perfect solution for the sparrow problem. There are even snippets in AFFC foreshadowing this alliance (as well as Euron sinking rag-tag fleets!).

Why would Euron try to marry Cersei in TWoW, when he should be waiting for Daenerys? Two simple reasons:

To keep his ironborn confident and entertained - and what better way to do that than to effectively offer them King's Landing on a platter, with no hard siege enough sparrow butchery to make them feel like they paid the iron price, and the honor of calling himself the "lawful" regent.

To make sure that he is in control of King's Landing when Daenerys arrives. With his own men infiltrated throughout the city, as soon as Dany enters port he could make Cersei and Tommen disappear down some dark shaft and give her the capital as a wedding gift. Cersei wouldn't be the main prize for Euron, but she is dumb enough to be another Falia Flowers.

Of course, since Victarion will end up returning without Dany, Cersei might live long enough to see Tommen killed in one of her new husband's dark moods and die at the hands of Euron's not so little valonqar... but not before revealing the secret of the wildfire caches and making sure (directly or indirectly) that King's Landing burns before Aegon takes it.

5. The Fourth Corollary: Who Takes Care of the Others?

Under the Exodus Theory, since neither Jon nor Dany will do it, someone else must fulfill the Azor Ahai role and ensure, if not that Westeros is saved, at least that the Long Night won't last forever.

I predict that this role will fall to Brienne of Tarth, and this the reason is why George gave her 8 seemingly redundant chapters of character development in AFFC. Her and Jaime fall in the unique position of not fitting in smoothly with any of the groups of future refugees.

They do fit, however, with a reenactment of the Last Hero story, as the two of them take the BwB North, through lands covered in snow and walking corpses, initially to find and rescue Bran, and in the end to save the dawn. This would work well with Jaime's prophetic dream in ASoS, and would be a nice end to his arc, since it was attempt to kill Bran that caused much of the troubles in the series.

Oathkeeper is also uniquely suitable to be the Last Hero's sword:

It was imbued with an unknown magic by Tobho Mott - ostensibly to make it ripple red, but who knows what other effects it may have?

Brienne might soon be in a position to kill LSH. Not only is her blood potentially special, since she is a fire wight, but killing her with Oathkeeper would mean killing Ned's wife with Ned's valyrian steel, an eerie parallel to Nissa Nissa.

Killing LSH would have a great symbolic value for Brienne, since her honor is what she values most.

Oathkeeper was already playfully called a "magic sword". Perhaps it is one for real.

Share this post

Link to post

Share on other sites

Interesting. Norvos seems like a bit of a stretch though; it's barely a ghost of a name in the books. Volantis is clearly being built up as on the verge of a slave revolt, making it a better fit for conquest-by-Mhysa. Braavos as an end boss still makes sense.

Share this post

Link to post

Share on other sites

It is interesting, but all the female characters ends up as ineffectual losers, so I can't feel enthusiastic about this version of events.

I agree that the two sides of the story need weaving together, and I do seriously wonder if Dany will ever leave Essos. She seems trapped in a mirror world, going south when she wants to go north, east when she wants to go west. Maybe her actions in the south and the east will ultimately reflect on the north and the west.

Share this post

Link to post

Share on other sites

Norvos seems like a bit of a stretch though; it's barely a ghost of a ﻿name in the books﻿﻿.﻿

I see Mellario as a currently absent character who is bound to get a bigger role, just like Stannis was in AGoT.

Norvos can easily go under the radar at the moment, but if Dany truly remains in Essos, this is the perfect place for Quentin's death to pay off. Also, ask yourself why Areo Hotah had to be from Norvos if the city is not going to appear in the story. Areo seemingly only exists to provide us with Doran's words without revealing Doran's thoughts, so his identity shouldn't matter. A Dornish character would have been more interesting, but he is a boring unsullied-like former slave who used to be Mellario's guardian. Why? It could be that George just wanted to do some unnecessary world building, sure. But there's also a chance that this was a very deliberate choice, and Areo serves the secondary purpose of setting up a future location through his memories.

45 minutes ago, Springwatch said:

It is interesting, but all the female characters ends up as ineffectual losers, so I can't feel enthusiastic about this version of events.

I don't really get that impression!

Dany conquers all or most of a continent, while Jon gets kicked out of his and has to come to her as a refugee seeking protection rather as any sort of equal. Arya becomes a master assassin and the face of the future world will probably hinge on her moral choice to either assassinate Dany or not. Sansa and Arienne will become leaders of refugees, ensuring the survival of southern Westerosi cultures... so what if they might need help, their role will also be crucial... Brienne is freaking Azor Ahai and saves the world from darkness! Were you being sarcastic?

Share this post

Link to post

Share on other sites

Personally, I think dani has learned her lesson with meereen, she might cross essos and leave a string of burning cities in her wake, but she will no longer attempt to rule them, this could still work for your theory though.

Share this post

Link to post

Share on other sites

Dany conquers all or most of a continent, while Jon gets kicked out of his and has to come to her as a refugee seeking protection rather as any sort of equal. Arya becomes a master assassin and the face of the future world will probably hinge on her moral choice to either assassinate Dany or not. Sansa and Arienne will become leaders of refugees, ensuring the survival of southern Westerosi cultures... so what if they might need help, their role will also be crucial... Brienne is freaking Azor Ahai and saves the world from darkness! Were you being sarcastic?

No, no sarcasm. Just an entirely personal response to some of the scenarios you've sketched out.

Arya. I know the hero-assassin is an established thing in fantasy, but I never caught up with that. And the child-assassin - oh gods. The House of Black and White - simply evil, from my perspective. Political assassination as a method for creating lasting peace just sounds unlikely to me (and it didn't work for Stannis' shadow babies, and it didn't work in Astapor). So a big fail from me for Arya in Essos.

Dany. It's what you said here: 'Without going into details, I predict that this whole arc will end with Dany in tears and Norvos in flames, and the whole disaster will resonate through Essos....' So Dany continues her path of creative destruction, but fails to create - leaving rich cities poor, fat cities starving etc. And Dany in tears, you say. Well, no doubt she can cry on Jon's shoulder while he sorts things out with his usual political savvy (woops, definitely slipping into sarcasm here; couldn't resist - will try to keep a lid on that).

The thing is, the special skills of both Arya and Dany are indeed in the realm of violence and classic heroic derring-do. If they're to reach their potential at all they need a justified war. There is such a war, in Westeros.

Sansa & Arianne. Take on the fleeing, supplicating and nurturing tasks arising from taking refugees to a new country. Very important and necessary work, no doubt, but.., I just don't... feel excited about it. (I don't include Jon here because in Essos I think he would hook up with Dany and ride a dragon.)

Cersei. Now we're talking! I'd love Cersei to replay Queen Whore of Astapor. But who would be her Cutthroat King? I disagree that she is 'dumb enough' to see Euron as Falia Flowers does. She wants power for herself. She is very alert to danger to her remaining children. So something's got to happen before that marriage takes place.

Brienne. Nope, can't see that one at all. She's part of the solution, not all of it.

Share this post

Link to post

Share on other sites

This fiction tries too hard to not only build up Jon into a greater role but places him in too good of a situation. One of the few ideas that I can buy into is the eventual need for the Westerosi to migrate to Essos. But to make this migration possible, the slavery machine will have to be removed. All of the slaving states will have to be forced to change. And a mass migration does not have to have one leader. A more realistic scenario is a disorganized migration characterized by widespread panic and chaos.

Share this post

Link to post

Share on other sites

Arya. I know the hero-assassin is an established thing in fantasy, but I never caught up with that. And the child-assassin - oh gods. The House of Black and White - simply evil, from my perspective. Political assassination as a method for creating lasting peace just sounds unlikely to me (and it didn't work for Stannis' shadow babies, and it didn't work in Astapor). So a big fail from me for Arya in Essos.

I don't think we will necessarily be rooting for the Faceless Men, or that Arya will go through with the assassination. More likely she will poison the dragons and that will lead to a political peace.

I expect the entire conflict with Braavos to be morally grey on all sides, with several characters having split loyalties and hard choices to make. That's where most of the drama will come from. Here's what I have in mind:

Dany has a certain fondness for Braavos due to the years it sheltered her in the house with the red door. She doesn't truly want to conquer it, but if the Braavosi don't kneel to her, the Dothraki will stop believing that she is the Stallion Who Mounts the World and won't follow her across the sea to save Westeros (an ultimately futile hope, since the dragons will be killed, but one that I think will motivate the character)

Tyrion is likely to betray Dany once he finds out that Tysha and his daughter Lana are in Braavos. He wouldn't want the city burned or sacked by the Dothraki because that would threaten them. Treason for love is written all over him.

Jon is going to owe a debt to Braavos as well. A moral one for helping his people on their initial landing, but also a financial one, the loan given to him by the Iron Bank to buy food from the other Free Cities. Jon is too honorable to forget about that debt, and if he lets Braavos fall he might never be able to payit back... Jon may be Dany's treason "for gold" in this context. And it will be kind of funny if it turns out that in the end the Starks pay their debts better than the Lannisters!

Arya throws away Needle and fully embraces the Faceless Men in Winds because, not knowing all the details of the assassination, resurrection and wight invasion, she will believe that Jon betrayed the Watch and Winterfell for a crown, and that breaks what little is left of her heart. But later, when she infiltrate's Dany's court to kill her, Jon, who came back with a heightened animal instinct after his time spent in Ghost, is able to see through her magical disguise (just like Casso, King of Seals). Once they talk, all her emotions and feelings of loyalty towards her family come flooding back, and they work a compromise together to spare Dany and kill the dragons instead. Is Dany going to allow Jon to live after that? We'll have to see.

4 hours ago, Springwatch said:

Dany. It's what you said here: 'Without going into details, I predict that this whole arc will end with Dany in tears and Norvos in flames, and the whole disaster will resonate through Essos....' So Dany continues her path of creative destruction, but fails to create - leaving rich cities poor, fat cities starving etc. And Dany in tears, you say. Well, no doubt she can cry on Jon's shoulder while he sorts things out with his usual political savvy (woops, definitely slipping into sarcasm here; couldn't resist - will try to keep a lid on that).

What, you want her story to be a triumphal march for the rest of the series just because she's a woman?

Social change in a medieval world is going to be hard and bloody, and Dany is a human being with a terrible weight on her shoulders and some even more terrible weapons at her disposal that she may not be able to fully control (the dragons and the Dothraki). The male characters aren't perfect either. Robb botched his war, Tyrion is an amoral mess and Jon's "political savvy" got him assassinated the last time!

Of course she will leave a deal of grief behind her, that theme was obvious since Astapor. Norvos burning is necessary for setting up the conflict with Braavos, and a heart wrenching loss due to Mellario's betrayal (maybe Missandei?) is necessary to stoke the fires of her wrath. The prophecies promised her a treason for blood, after all.

In the end, whether we can palate the human cost or not, her anti-slavery war will ensure that the Westerosi refugees are able to build a new for themselves in Essos. Without it, the refugees, mostly women and children I expect, would have been butchered by the Dothraki or put in chains and sent to Slaver's Bay. So they will have every reason to rally around her.

4 hours ago, Springwatch said:

The thing is, the special skills of both Arya and Dany are indeed in the realm of violence and classic heroic derring-do. If they're to reach their potential at all they need a justified war. There is such a war, in Westeros.

All fights will be bloody, but what goal is nobler - An end to slavery, or a crown? Political freedom in the face of tyranny, or a bloody path of personal vengeance? The war in Westeros is hardly justified, unless you mean the Others, but that won't be Dany's reason because she doesn't know about them. If she abandons her freedmen for a kingdom now, that will stain her character anyway.

5 hours ago, Springwatch said:

Sansa & Arianne. Take on the fleeing, supplicating and nurturing tasks arising from taking refugees to a new country. Very important and necessary work, no doubt, but.., I just don't... feel excited about it. (I don't include Jon here because in Essos I think he would hook up with Dany and ride a dragon.)

I think the reason you don't feel excited about it is that I wasn't able to get into more details. Their final arcs, as well as fAegon's, are "screened" by the ones they are going through currently.

Before she can do anything else, Sansa needs to gain some political power in the Vale, and that can take as long as the entirety of Winds. What she does next depends on the position she will be in the end. Will she cross over early and get involved in Jon and Dany's story? Will she attempt to reason with Euron for safe passage? Will she be a player, or a victim to be rescued, that's hard to tell.

It's similar with Arianne, we don't know yet what her interactions with fAegon will lead to and where she will be at at the end of Winds, when presumably the war for the South will reach its conclusion and the Others will cross the Trident.

5 hours ago, Springwatch said:

Cersei. Now we're talking! I'd love Cersei to replay Queen Whore of Astapor. But who would be her Cutthroat King? I disagree that she is 'dumb enough' to see Euron as Falia Flowers does. She wants power for herself. She is very alert to danger to her remaining children. So something's got to happen before that marriage takes place.

I think it's pretty obvious that Cersei and Euron will form an alliance. The reasons I mentioned, coupled with silence from Jaime and the fAegon's impending attack on King's Landing should be enough to sway her. I don't know if she will understand how dangerous Euron is before it is too late. Maybe with all the experiences she had lately she might, but I think Littlefinger's assessment that she doesn't realize pieces sometimes have wills of their own will remain true. Euron is very good at making himself liked when he wants to.

5 hours ago, Springwatch said:

Brienne. Nope, can't see that one at all. She's part of the solution, not all of it.

Well, Jaime will help as well, and the Hound will be with them, and maybe Theon, and Bran will tell them what to do... But the last time the Long Night came, it wasn't a hidden prince or a dragon rider who won back what the armies of men had lost, it was one hero who set out with a sword, a horse, a dog and a dozen companions, and in the end had to bring back the dawn alone. Who says there needs to be a battle? Maybe the Long Night started because of... an oath that wasn't kept?

Share this post

Link to post

Share on other sites

This fiction tries too hard to not only build up Jon into a greater role but places him in too good of a situation. One of the few ideas that I can buy into is the eventual need for the Westerosi to migrate to Essos. But to make this migration possible, the slavery machine will have to be removed. All of the slaving states will have to be forced to change. And a mass migration does not have to have one leader. A more realistic scenario is a disorganized migration characterized by widespread panic and chaos.

I'm sure there will be a lot of that (and Euron will hunt down and drown most of them)! Jon will only lead the refugees from the north, and maybe the Vale if Sansa discovers his true identity and swears her people to him, the rest will come in separate waves.

Share this post

Link to post

Share on other sites

Jon leading this exodus, disagree. Jon is more north than any other northman we've met. He's more ice than any of the Starks. He stays put in the north. He continues to live as the lone wolf inside Ghost or he leads the Stark pack. The Starks will stay put in the north and live as a pack of direwolves. They will have their very own Winter Kingdom and Jon, the Alpha Direwolf, will be the King of Winter.

The man to lead the surviving people to the east is somebody who already has connections to Essos. Aegon Griffin or whatever the hell his real name is.

Daenerys and the ex-slavers will have ended their military conflict but there will remain a hard core group of evil Ghiscari who will be socially active in trying to bring back the slave trade. Think of the KKK, ku klux klan and the other hate groups. The slave trade will have formally ended but the task to build a new society is first on Dany's task list.

Daenerys will visit Westeros and realize it's hopeless to turn the weather. She will iron out her differences with Aegon Griffin and they can work together to open the way for the refugees to move to Essos to places like Vaes Tolorro.

Cersei will be dead, but Tyrion and Jaime will probably still be living when the exodus happens. Martin likes Jaime and I can predict the author will keep him alive. Gendry will be the lone Baratheon remaining.

Share this post

Link to post

Share on other sites

A parallel between the refugees from the North (and later from other kingdoms) and the invasions of the Andals and the First Men

Percentagewise how much of Westeros regions will die? Same goes for Essos.

Over 50% in Westeros. Like maybe less than 30% might somehow make it out. The combination of winter starvation, death from the cold, war between Roose vs. Stannis/Jon, greyscale, war between Euron and the reach will cause over 70% or more to die.

Essos will fare a bit better because of its sheer size. The majority are slaves and the master class only make up about 20-30% And some of those slave masters will see the light and buy into the new way. I mean they won't do it because they have a moral change of heart but because they will have no choice. They will be forced to free their slaves. The ones who continue to resist will deservedly die and the ones who comply get to live.

4 hours ago, Sire de Maletroit said:

Exodus to Essos, agree. This is pretty much guaranteed to happen.

Jon leading this exodus, disagree. Jon is more north than any other northman we've met. He's more ice than any of the Starks. He stays put in the north. He continues to live as the lone wolf inside Ghost or he leads the Stark pack. The Starks will stay put in the north and live as a pack of direwolves. They will have their very own Winter Kingdom and Jon, the Alpha Direwolf, will be the King of Winter.

The man to lead the surviving people to the east is somebody who already has connections to Essos. Aegon Griffin or whatever the hell his real name is.

Daenerys and the ex-slavers will have ended their military conflict but there will remain a hard core group of evil Ghiscari who will be socially active in trying to bring back the slave trade. Think of the KKK, ku klux klan and the other hate groups. The slave trade will have formally ended but the task to build a new society is first on Dany's task list.

Daenerys will visit Westeros and realize it's hopeless to turn the weather. She will iron out her differences with Aegon Griffin and they can work together to open the way for the refugees to move to Essos to places like Vaes Tolorro.

Cersei will be dead, but Tyrion and Jaime will probably still be living when the exodus happens. Martin likes Jaime and I can predict the author will keep him alive. Gendry will be the lone Baratheon remaining.

The Starks will remain in the north. I fully believe this too. The Targaryen side (Daenerys) will stay in Essos.

Share this post

Link to post

Share on other sites

Percentagewise how much of Westeros regions will die? Same goes for Essos.

Like Euron foretold, "all of Westeros is dying". The Seven Kingdoms will become the new Land of Always Winter. Maybe Dorne will manage to hang on, to become the future version of wildlings beyond the Narrow Sea.

In Essos there will be more survivors. Dany's conquest will bring a lot of death, but not complete destruction. Norvos will be ruined, but other places (e.g. Lorath) will bow to her without contest, and others might be won politically or through intimidation.

9 hours ago, Sire de Maletroit said:

Jon leading this exodus, disagree.

Jon has to lead the first wave of refugees, that's the only way for the three story arcs to properly converge in two books. Otherwise you're still pacing the entire series after Dany.

5 hours ago, chrisdaw said:

Any Exodus will be lead by Arya as per her Nymeria association. Stuff like Dany never getting to Westeros is nonsense.﻿

What if Arya is sent to apprentice with one of the courtesans, giving us a window in the upper class of Braavos while the city is preparing for elections in Winds? Then Arya will be a Lady and Sansa will be the Nymeria figure. You never heard of inversion before?

Share this post

Link to post

Share on other sites

What if Arya is sent to apprentice with one of the courtesans, giving us a window in the upper class of Braavos while the city is preparing for elections in Winds? Then Arya will be a Lady and Sansa will be the Nymeria figure. You never heard of inversion before?

Sure thing. Anytime now Sansa will be picking up a sword and becoming a warrior. It's inversion.

Share this post

Link to post

Share on other sites

Sure thing. Anytime now Sansa will be picking up a sword and becoming a warrior. It's inversion.

Nymeria never wielded a sword, she only commanded her armies when she had to. She was a political leader, not a fighter, and used a marriage alliance to consolidate her power in Dorne. Sounds a lot more like Sansa than Arya...

Share this post

Link to post

Share on other sites

Nymeria never wielded a sword, she only commanded her armies when she had to. She was a political leader, not a fighter, and used a marriage alliance to consolidate her power in Dorne. Sounds a lot more like Sansa than Arya...

Yeah, commanding armies on the battlefield sounds just like Sansa.

Share this post

Link to post

Share on other sites

You think Arya would be better at that? Sansa is more likely to end up leading the Vale forces than Arya is to be leading anyone, at least within the scope of this series. And if she leads the Vale, she will command its army too, just like Arianne will presumably command the Dornish hosts after she joins fAegon.

Link to post

Share on other sites

Arya will be that. From Queen Nymeria to Black Aly to Wenda the White Fawn her foreshadowing is consistent and clear.

Nymeria is Arya's hero, the namesake she takes for herself and name of her wolf. The only time Nymeria is ever mentioned in a Sansa chapter is only in her first and only in reference to Arya's wolf. To conclude from this inverse foreshadowing is just whatever. You do you, just don't say you weren't told.

Share this post

Link to post

Share on other sites

Arya will be that. From Queen Nymeria to Black Aly to Wenda the White Fawn her foreshadowing is consistent and clear.

Nymeria is Arya's hero, the namesake she takes for herself and name of her wolf. The only time Nymeria is ever mentioned in a Sansa chapter is only in her first and only in reference to Arya's wolf. To conclude from this inverse foreshadowing is just whatever. You do you, just don't say you weren't told.

I would appreciate a solid argument to "being told" I've been told too many things that made no sense.

What exactly in Arya's arc leads you to believe that she will lead any group larger than 2 people, let alone an exodus? How will that work out over the two remaining books?