Increasing Risks of State-Led Mass Killing in The Gambia

Jun 23, 2016

Guest Post by Jeffrey Smith. Smith is executive director of the Vanguard Africa Movement and an international human rights consultant. Follow him on Twitter at @Smith_JeffreyT .

via Getty Images

The West African nation of The Gambia has made a quite habit of generating
headlines for all the
wrong reasons. The country’s moniker as the “Smiling Coast of Africa”
belies a tragic and brutal reality on the ground. Located in a region that has
made tremendous advancements in terms of deepening democracy and expanding both
political and economic rights, The Gambia has been mired under the patently
dangerous leadership of Yahya Jammeh, who came to power in 1994 by means of a
military coup and has since vowed to rule for “one
billion years.”

Several factors indicate that the risk of state-led mass killing is
increasing: a steady
deterioration of the Gambian economy due to mismanagement and rampant
corruption; the
death and disappearances of several prominent opposition leaders; and a
recent uptick of inflammatory rhetoric and political
violence . Additionally, The Gambia will hold elections this December,
which have always proved to be a persistent
trigger for violent repression in the country.

Adding fuel to the fire, popular protests have been a fixture in the country
since mid-April, when citizens mobilized to demand electoral reforms and later
intensified when leaders of the country’s main opposition party werearrested
(and to this day
remain jailed) for “unlawful assembly.” The government’s heavy-handed
response – which has included police violence, mass arrests, and the
deaths of at least three opposition members in state custody – might be due
in part to residual anxiety from an
attempted coup in December 2014. All told, Jammeh has allegedly repelled at
least eight coup attempts and related plots since coming to power in 1994.

Many entrenched regimes intimidate opposing political parties, going so far
as to arrest and persecute political leaders, but recent rhetoric on the part
of the Jammeh regime adds a sense of urgency. Top Gambian officials in recent
weeks have espoused highly incendiary rhetoric that amounts to hate speech and
incitement to violence. Most recently, President Jammeh himself has added his
voice to the verbal assault on Gambian citizens, namely the country’s Mandinka
ethnic group, which makes up about 42% of the population, and whom Jammeh has
chosen as an expedient scapegoat for the country’s ills. At a public gathering
several weeks ago, Jammeh labeled The Gambia’s nearly one million Mandinka
residents as “vermin” and went on to exclaim:

“I will kill you like ants and nothing will come out of it … I swear to God,
there will be no Mandinka government in The Gambia. Never! If that fails, let
me go to hell if I die.”

Furthermore, last month The Gambia’s deputy ambassador to the United
Nations, Samsudeen Sarr, was caught on
tape endorsing a tactic of shooting civilians. Ambassador Sarr later
expanded on his comments in a blog post that was published in
one of the government’s propaganda outlets, writing in part:

“…if I am in charge of any military or police operation in a country where a
bunch of useless thugs are released in the streets to render the society
ungovernable without their consideration of how many people could lose their
lives in the process, using deadly force will not be ruled out in my masterplan
(sic).”

Similarly, The Gambia’s Interior Minister, Ousman Sonko, a longtime steward
and
active participant in the country’s brutal repression, was
quoted in the state-run Observer newspaper as saying: “We will not
compromise 21 years of huge development to be destroyed by a few minorities.”
Further commenting on the (
entirely peaceful) protests that have been taking place in the country
since April: “Demonstration of any kind will not be compromised here. If anyone
does it, that person would regret it.” This threat surely resonates with
Gambian citizens. Indeed, Jammeh’s security forces have long been encouraged to
use violence on perceived critics, including the use of live
ammunition as recently as last month. The country’s Indemnity Law, signed
by Jammeh in 2001, provides the president with sweeping authority to prevent
security forces from being prosecuted for quelling “unlawful assembly.” There
are now credible fears that the upcoming elections will provide additional
impetus for Jammeh’s security forces to brutalize Gambian citizens under the
dubious guise of the rule of law and public order.

President Jammeh’s shocking remarks earned swift rebuke from the
U.N. Special Adviser on the Prevention of Genocide, Adama Dieng. The timely
statement from the U.N. referenced Jammeh’s “increasing vitriolic rhetoric” and
pointed out that hate speech, as in this particular case, can be both a warning
sign and a powerful trigger for atrocity crimes. The brash comments also
received attention
in one of Rwanda’s state-run newspapers, a country that to this day is the
preeminent poster child of genocide and a prescient reminder of the need to be
proactive to prevent wide-scale violence.

Prior to these recent events in The Gambia, the Early Warning Project, which
identifies countries most at risk of state-led mass killing, cited the country
as having the fourth biggest
statistical increase in risk over the past year. While The Gambia is ranked
45th among countries at risk or most likely to experience an episode
of state-led mass killing, recent events in the country should engender
increased vigilance. Indeed, urgency on the part of the international community
is required now more than ever.

With elections taking place on December 1 of this year, and having already
contributed to elevated insecurity, the
U.S. government in particular should consider tasking its intelligence services
for an assessment of the real potential for mass violence in The Gambia. This
would entail elevating the Gambian issue to the president’s Atrocity Prevention
Board, which can address the early warning indicators of mass atrocities that
currently prevail in the country. Just as important, President Yahya Jammeh and
his coterie must be made aware that world is watching and that there will be
real, substantive consequences (which I have outlined elsewhere). Preventative
steps must be taken now by engaging West African regional leaders, the African
Union, as well as the United Nations Security Council to dissuade the Jammeh
regime from continuing down this tragic and distinctly disastrous path.

This is a dangerous moment for the citizens of The Gambia. Many warning
signs are present indicating an evident and increasing risk of state-led mass
killing. As such, we cannot in good conscience continue to remain silent.

About the Expert Warning Project Blog

The Early Warning Project blog provides regular analysis of at-risk countries and evolving situations around the world.

The Early Warning Project blog features posts in several categories, including our annual Statistical Risk Assessments and occasional updates to them; alerts about, and analysis of, forecasts from our Expert Opinion Pool; reactions to relevant news from specific countries and regions; pointers to interesting new research on mass killing and prevention; and interviews with members of the genocide prevention community.