3D Printing Stock Bubble? $10.8 Billion By 2021

3D printing and related fields in scanning, modeling have seen a phenomenal rise in 2013. There are big questions about 3D printing and if we are witnessing a stock bubble that is soon to burst. Most of these questions and forecasts focus on consumer adoption, or prototyping alone, but the big value in 3D is in printing final parts.

According to Wohlers Associates, one of the leading firms studying 3D printing (additive manufacturing) and its impact, “the production of parts for final products is expected to far surpass prototyping applications for 3D-printed parts,” according to Tim Caffrey, senior consultant at the company.

Caffrey added that this is because the ratio of prototypes to production parts is often 1:1,000 or greater. “The money is in manufacturing, not prototyping. The opportunity for more commercial production activity from additive manufacturing is immense.”

In four years, Wohlers Associates believes that the sale of 3D printing products and services will approach $6 billion worldwide. By 2021, Wohlers Associates forecasts the industry to reach $10.8 billion. It took the 3D printing industry 20 years to reach $1 billion in size. In five additional years, the industry generated its second $1 billion. It is expected to double again, to $4 billion, in 2015. A good example of services is Shapeways, listed at the end of this post in a gallery.

Autodesk: 3D printing is amazing, but you can’t print if you don’t have a digital file, a computer modeled version that communicates with the printer itself. That’s where AutoCAD software from Autodesk comes into play. The company supports major industries, inventors, entrepreneurs, and even consumers with its apps and full suite of software. It has seen a 40 percent gain in the last 12 months. 63 percent over 24 months.

Stratasys: With its acquisition of MakerBot, the company leaped into the consumer market, or at least the professional amateur (pro-am) market. Already a dominant player in large scale, high end 3D printers, they have seen a 60 percent increase this year. 324 percent over the last two years.

3D Systems: This company has captured the attention of many Wall Street analysts due to its product mix (mostly high end industrial 3D printers, but also a growing consumer line), strong patents, and its sales of high margin materials. It has seen a 155 percent gain in the last 12 months and an astounding 845 percent over two years. You can read more from my Forbes colleagues with posts in the left nav column.

Dassault Systemes: (DASTY) With its SolidWorks software, France-based Dassault Systemes has one of the best known software packages for 3D designers and creators. Their stock only shows a 10 percent growth over the last 12 months, but over two years it is closer to 55 percent.

While there’s talk of a bubble, and no doubt that will be true for some companies in the 3D printing industry, there is also fundamental and healthy future growth by industrial users in medicine, manufacturing, and military, just to mention a few. Do not get lost in the consumer frenzy portion of this still-growing industry – look at the makers and manufacturers who are building functional components for everyday things.

At press time, I do not own any of these stocks, but am seriously evaluating these and others in the space. Enjoy this gallery of cool 3D printed items and products (from individual artisans and makers) from one of my favorite companies: Shapeways. They are not public, but if and when they go, it would be one to buy. The eBay of individually-created products.

I write about new technology, often hardware, gear, and 3D tech, but sometimes mobile and the cloud. I like to help small and midsize business owners and execs figure out how to use these tools to grow their businesses.