Madison - Gov. Scott Walker's administration released improved budget projections Thursday that would leave the state with a $154.5 million surplus a year from now.

Coming less than four weeks before Walker's June 5 recall election, the projections take the state from a previously estimated $143 million budget deficit in its main account through June 2013 to the surplus.

A large chunk of the surplus is realized by delaying payments that will ultimately cost taxpayers more in interest.

The budget numbers released Thursday do not account for a sizable shortfall in the state's health programs for the poor that Walker's administration says it will deal with through increased efficiencies and spending cuts.

"This is a great example of how honest budgeting pays off," said Rep. Robin Vos (R-Rochester), co-chairman of the Legislature's Joint Finance Committee.

But a spokesman for Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett, the Democrat running against Walker, said the numbers were "built on sand." Spokesman Phil Walzak said if Barrett were governor, he would direct some of the money toward foreclosure victims and reverse changes that resulted in higher taxes on some low-income people.

The new numbers came out just hours after Vos called on Barrett to tell voters how he would have budgeted differently than Walker.

Barrett has been sharply critical of Walker's cuts to schools and local governments as the two of them head into a sprint toward a historic recall election.

But the GOP heads of the Legislature's budget committee said the Milwaukee mayor hasn't said enough about how much more money he would have provided to schools and how he would have paid for that.

The state had a roughly $3 billion budget deficit over two years when Walker took office, and the Republican governor fixed it mainly through spending cuts rather than tax increases.

"Even with the abbreviated election cycle, Wisconsin voters deserve to know your financial plans for our state. This next election is about more than rhetoric; it's about the fiscal future of Wisconsin," Vos and Sen. Alberta Darling (R-River Hills) wrote to Barrett in a letter Thursday.

Barrett spokesman Phil Walzak said Walker had explaining to do as well.

"Walker and his right-wing allies need to explain to the people of Wisconsin why they pushed a budget that gave big tax breaks to corporations and the super rich, raised taxes on seniors, and made the deepest cuts to education in our state's history," Walzak said.

Barrett has declined to say how much more he would give to schools and how.

"We don't know the dollar amount. What we're going to do between June and January is create jobs in the state, and it's our hope in January we'll have a much better handle on what to do to reverse (Walker's) cuts to education" and health programs, Barrett said last month.

Barrett has said that he would keep in place higher payments by public workers in the state for health care and pensions. Those provisions were at the heart of Walker's budgeting because they helped schools and local governments offset part of the cuts in state aid.

Boosting rainy day fund

The new budget projections were released Thursday by Walker's administration secretary, Mike Huebsch. He said the state would close out the two-year budget period on June 30, 2013, with a $154.5 million surplus. In addition, the state is expected to contribute an additional $45.4 million to its rainy-day fund that would add to the state's budget cushion, he wrote in a memo to Walker.

The improved projections come in part from recent data showing employment in the third quarter of 2011 was better than originally reported, Revenue Secretary Richard Chandler said in another memo released Thursday.

Democrats questioned the timing of the report.

"The timing of this announcement from Gov. Walker's partisan budget office is highly suspect given the fact that the governor is in the middle of a campaign and that the nonpartisan Legislative Fiscal Bureau is not likely to release its projections until early next year," Assembly Minority Leader Peter Barca (D-Kenosha) said in a statement.

The report did come after the Department of Revenue reviewed income and other tax collections in April, an important gauge of the state's fiscal health.

The projected surplus includes $78 million that was acquired by restructuring debt. A small amount of that comes from getting lower interest rates, but most of it comes from pushing off payments and allowing long-term interest costs to rise, according to the Legislative Fiscal Bureau.

Also Thursday, a new poll by Rasmussen Reports showed Walker leading Barrett 50% to 45%.

The results were inside the poll's margin of error of plus or minus 4.5 percentage points.

The telephone survey of 500 likely voters said 2% preferred another candidate and another 2% were undecided. The survey by the Republican-leaning firm was taken on Wednesday, a day after both Walker and Barrett won primaries.

Walker performed better in the poll than in one last week by Marquette University Law School, which showed Walker and Barrett in a dead heat. In that poll, Barrett led Walker 47% to 46% among registered voters. But Walker led Barrett 48% to 47% among likely voters.

Don Walker of the Journal Sentinel staff contributed to this report from Milwaukee.

About Jason Stein

Jason Stein covers the state Capitol and is the author with his colleague Patrick Marley of "More than They Bargained For: Scott Walker, Unions and the Fight for Wisconsin." His work has been recognized by journalism groups such as the American Society of News Editors, the Society of American Business Editors and Writers, and the Association of Capitol Reporters and Editors.

About Patrick Marley

Patrick Marley covers state government and state politics. He is the author, with Journal Sentinel reporter Jason Stein, of "More Than They Bargained For: Scott Walker, Unions and the Fight for Wisconsin.”