Sunday, March 11, 2012

The table below gives an alphabetical list of each team in the NCAA and how many bracket lines on which you may want to put each team. I will be on an ESPN station discussing the bracket starting at 6 p.m. EST/5 p.m. CST Monday, and you can listen here and you can call 334-321-1390 to ask questions.

While most were shocked to see Louisville, Florida State and Vanderbilt win their conference tournaments this weekend, the Value Add system had them (and Big East surprise runner-up Cincinnati) all in the Sweet 16 posted more than nine months ago. I continue to believe the three, respectively, have the suffocating pressure defense, half-court defense, and three dominant NBA-level offensive players to make potential runs. Certainly all eight teams who received a No. 1 or 2 seed can make a run, and finally I do believe Marquette is the other team that can make a run because they are so dominant in 7 of 8 areas that unless a team can dominate their one weakness (defensive rebounding), MU can get on a roll past anyone. Sports Illustrated also noted this summer that Value Add had Michigan State as a surprise team in the mix since they were unranked in either preseason poll but in the Value Add Sweet 16 - and the Spartans just took their first Big Ten title in 12 years. Andrew Nicholson, ranked as the 47th best player by Value Add this season, just had the best performance of any player this weekend to lead St. Bonaventure to an upset of Xavier and NCAA appearance.

So if Value Add can identify 15 of the top teams 9 months out (Pitt was the only dud on the list), why not brackets? Simply put, statistics are very accurate over a season or even five or six games, but any statistician will tell you the swings are too wild when looking at one particular game – and one bad match-up or poor performance anywhere in the tournament ends the run.

Therefore, the most likely championship game is Kentucky vs. UNC – but there is only a 4% chance that will be the game and a 96% chance it will be one of the other 2,311 possible match-ups.

While I believe the 12 teams mentioned are the most likely to be in the title game, there is a 52% chance the title game will include two of those 12 teams, and a 48% chance at least one of the teams will be one of the other 56 teams.

So you can use these tables one of three ways:

1. If you just want to get a bracket off your desk you can just write down a team once for every “W” you see by them – with a capital "W" meaning they have a pretty clear edge, a small “w” meaning a slight edge, a small “l” meaning slightly more likely to be a loss, and a big “L” meaning they really shouldn’t win that game.

2. If you want to spend a few more minutes on your bracket, I’ve rated each team on four big things that seem to lead to tourney runs; a, how well the team was based this year based on their ratings in Pomeroy, b, whether or not the team has the three NBA-level or elite players it usually takes for a Final Four run; c, how experienced their guards are (particularly point guard); and d, how hot the team has been the last 10 to 12 games.

3. Finally, if you want to actually look at the key players on any team you are considering, the last table lists the top 3 players for each of the 68 teams and where they ranked among all players (Anthony Davis of Kentucky was first). The only two top 25 players not in the tournament are 11th ranked TJ McConnell of Duquesne and 16th ranked Damian Lillard of Weber State. (you can find all players here)

As for an absolute dark horse out there, I believe Belmont may be the greatest No. 14 seed in the history of the tournament. While I have Georgetown as a very slight favorite against Belmont, if Belmont does win that game they may well shoot into the Sweet 16 or Elite 8, and if they had been seated any higher than 14 I believe they would have been a shoe-in for a first round victory - but Georgetown is good.

Team Table (W = likely Win, L = likely Loss)

The four ratings go in descending order of importance; 1) "Sea" is the season rating, 2) "Tal" is the NBA- or Elite-level play of at least three top players; 3) "Exp" equals experience-level of guards; and 4, "Hot" equals how hot the team has been in moving up or down in Pomeroy the last 10 or 12 games and/or if they have any injuries or have gotten healthier (e.g. SH = shorthanded with one of their top 7 players missing, while teams like Louisville that have Peyton Siva back at full strength are now better:

Team

Conf

Sea

Tal

Exp

Hot

Ovr

Scale

20

15

10

10

9

Alabama (SH)

SEC

15

5

4

2

26

l

L

L

L

L

L

3

Baylor

B12

17

9

8

3

37

W

w

l

l

L

L

14

Belmont

ASun

16

4

10

8

38

l

w

l

L

L

L

14

Brigham Young

WCC

12

3

5

2

22

L

L

L

L

L

L

12

California

P12

16

8

5

4

33

l

l

L

L

L

L

6

Cincinnati

BE

15

5

7

10

37

w

l

l

l

L

L

11

Colorado

P12

9

5

9

5

28

l

l

L

L

L

L

11

Colorado St.

MWC

10

4

6

8

28

l

L

L

L

L

L

9

Connecticut

BE

14

10

2

6

32

l

L

L

L

L

L

8

Creighton

MVC

14

6

10

3

33

w

L

L

L

L

L

13

Davidson

SC

11

4

6

5

26

L

L

L

L

L

L

15

Detroit

Horz

6

6

5

9

26

L

L

L

L

L

L

2

Duke

ACC

17

10

4

7

38

W

w

w

l

L

L

7

Florida (SH)

SEC

16

10

8

2

36

w

l

l

L

L

L

3

Florida St.

ACC

15

9

10

10

44

W

w

w

w

l

L

3

Georgetown

BE

17

9

8

7

41

w

w

l

l

L

L

7

Gonzaga

WCC

15

7

5

4

31

w

l

L

L

L

L

12

Harvard

Ivy

13

4

10

3

30

L

L

L

L

L

L

4

Indiana (SH)

B10

18

8

10

4

40

w

l

l

l

L

L

14

Iona

MAAC

12

6

8

6

32

l

L

l

L

L

L

8

Iowa St. (SH)

B12

15

6

6

6

33

w

L

L

L

L

L

2

Kansas

B12

19

11

10

5

45

W

w

w

l

l

L

8

Kansas St.

B12

16

5

4

5

30

w

L

L

L

L

L

1

Kentucky

SEC

20

15

1

8

44

W

W

w

w

l

L

16

Lamar

Slnd

7

4

9

5

25

L

L

L

L

L

L

15

Lehigh

Pat

9

4

6

6

25

l

L

L

L

L

L

12

Long Beach St.

BW

14

5

9

5

33

l

l

L

L

L

L

16

Long Island

NEC

3

5

7

5

20

L

L

L

L

L

L

4

Louisville

BE

15

7

7

10

39

W

w

l

l

L

L

15

Loyola MD

MAAC

5

4

3

5

17

L

L

L

L

L

L

3

Marquette

BE

16

8

7

7

38

w

w

w

l

L

L

8

Memphis (SH)

CUSA

17

8

4

6

35

l

L

L

L

L

L

4

Michigan

B10

16

7

6

8

37

w

w

l

L

L

L

1

Michigan St.

B10

19

10

9

9

47

W

W

w

w

w

w

16

Mississippi Val St.

SWAC

1

1

9

4

15

L

L

L

L

L

L

2

Missouri

B12

18

8

6

4

36

W

w

l

L

L

L

13

Montana

BSky

9

4

7

7

27

l

L

L

L

L

L

6

Murray St.

OVC

13

6

7

5

31

w

l

l

L

L

L

16

NC Asheville

BSth

5

4

10

7

26

L

L

L

L

L

L

5

New Mexico

MWC

17

6

5

9

37

w

l

L

L

L

L

13

New Mexico St.

WAC

11

4

8

8

31

l

l

L

L

L

L

15

Norfolk St.

MEAC

2

3

7

3

15

L

L

L

L

L

L

11

North Carolina St.

ACC

13

9

8

8

38

W

l

L

L

L

L

7

Notre Dame

BE

14

6

4

10

34

w

l

l

L

L

L

13

Ohio

MAC

10

4

6

7

27

l

L

L

L

L

L

2

Ohio St.

B10

19

10

2

6

37

W

w

l

l

L

L

10

Purdue

B10

16

9

9

7

41

W

l

l

l

L

L

12

S. Florida (SH)

BE

11

3

4

8

26

L

L

L

L

L

L

9

S. Mississippi

CUSA

11

3

5

4

23

l

L

L

L

L

L

6

San Diego St.

MWC

12

4

4

5

25

L

L

L

L

L

L

14

South Dakota St.

Sum

12

1

7

5

25

L

L

L

L

L

L

14

St. Bonaventure

A10

12

5

4

9

25

L

L

L

L

L

L

9

St. Louis

A10

17

5

7

7

36

w

L

L

L

L

L

7

St. Mary's (SH)

WCC

13

5

6

1

25

L

L

L

L

L

L

1

Syracuse

BE

18

13

7

5

43

W

W

l

l

l

L

5

Temple

A10

14

5

9

8

36

w

l

L

L

L

L

11

Texas

B12

15

8

4

5

32

l

l

L

L

L

L

1

UNC (SH)

ACC

19

15

5

7

46

W

W

w

w

w

l

6

UNLV

MWC

15

8

10

2

35

w

l

l

l

L

L

5

Vanderbilt

SEC

16

12

9

7

44

W

w

w

l

l

L

12

VCU

CAA

13

6

4

6

29

L

L

L

L

L

L

16

Vermont

AE

5

3

4

7

19

L

L

L

L

L

L

10

Virginia (SH)

ACC

16

5

7

2

30

l

l

l

L

L

L

16

Western Kentucky

SB

3

1

7

7

18

L

L

L

L

L

L

5

Wichita St.

MVC

18

5

10

7

40

W

w

l

l

L

L

4

Wisconsin

B10

18

7

7

5

37

w

l

l

l

L

L

10

WVU (SH)

BE

13

6

3

2

24

l

L

L

L

L

L

10

Xavier

A10

12

5

9

4

30

l

l

l

L

L

L

Top 3 players for all tournament teams

In addition to noting their overall Rnk among the 4,000 Division I players, I noted if each player is projected to go in the 1st round or 2nd round of the NBA Draft this year, or in the 2013 draft.

Yes, a very good question. It is Value Add based, and as awesome as Rivers is - he still plays a bit like a freshman.

The average team scores 1 pt per trip down the court, and based on the calculations from Basketball on paper and presented on www.kenpom.com, a team of Rivers would only average 1.047 - so he has been barely above average. He is clearly one of the few best players long term, but the only categories in which he is in the top 500 in www.kenpom.com are % of minutes played, percent of shots taken, and getting to the foul line. He barely shoots the national average on two pointers at 47.9%, and is just above average on treys at 36.8%. Even though he is a guard he is below average at steals (1.8% per opponents trip down the court), never blocks a shot, and for a guard has a low assist rate - less than half the assist rate of guard Quinn Cook who plays when he isn't in, and lower than Seth Curry or Tyler Thornton.

In short, Rivers shoots way too much and passes way too little to be a truly great player yet, but as he matures in his decision making, he will certainly become one of the most dominant players in the country. Duke can only hope he chooses to hit that level as a sophomore rather than as a NBA rookie next year.