Sunday, September 20, 2015

Economy: The Party Begins

(Drivebycuriosity) - Pessimism rules. The Fed postponed the expected interest rate hike and the website Business Insider provokes with the headline "The party is over" and claims that the global economy is so bad that there is a chance that stocks could crash 50% from here (businessinsider).

I disagree. I believe that the party will begin soon. I assume that the global economy is at an inflection point and that economic growth rates will pick up worldwide.

The reason: Oil & and other commodities are much cheaper than in the recent years and interest rates are still close to zero. This situation reminds me of the period 1985 through 2000. Then cheap oil and other commodities combined with falling interest rates created a decade with strong economic growth and the Dow Jones climbed from 1,000 point to 10,000 points ( ritholtz).

Today oil costs around 60% less than at its peak last year, US gasoline prices are around one dollar cheaper than one year ago (fuelgauge) and other commodities are much cheaper as well (bloomberg). Consumers have more money to spend, they are also benefitting from a tightening job market: Weekly jobless claims are on a historical low level, the job openings are on a record high (stlouisfed), the unemployment rate dropped to 5.1% (economics) and wages started to climb (marketwatch).

Fortunate Combination

I think that a fortunate combination of job growth, climbing wages, low interest rates (mortgages) and much cheaper commodities will stimulate the US retail sales & demand for services - the consumer spending, which is the engine of the economy. The consumers in Europe, Japan and in China are benefitting from the collapse of the commodity prices as well. Therefore I expect stronger consumer spending in all important regions of the world. More consumer spending translates into a stronger demand for manufactured goods & services and should be the trigger to rekindle the sluggish global economy.