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John Fay has been the Reds beat writer for the Enquirer since 2001. Prior to that, he served in a variety of roles for the Enquirer: backup Reds writer, UC beat writer, backup Bengals writer and as a general assignment reporter. He is a Cincinnati native and a graduate of Elder High School and the University of Dayton.

Monday, July 30, 2007

Your guess is as good . . .

as mine, as to whether the Reds will trade Adam Dunn before the deadline. Things have been quiet, which isn't unusual with the way Wayne Krivsky operates.

So would you trade Dunn?

How much would you need in return to do it?I think fans are split about 50-50 on Dunn. But sending him out for prospects would not be popular.

mlb.com reports Texas is sending first baseman Mark Teixeira and lefty reliever Ron Mahay to Atlanta for catcher/first baseman Jarrod Saltalamacchia, plus Minor Leaguers Neftali Feliz and Elvis Andrus along with a player to be named. That will affect the market for Dunn. I think if the Reds could have gotten Saltalamacchia for Dunn, they would have made the trade.

Forget what's popular, let's improve this team. Give me an above average bull-pen guy and a prospect for Dunn and it's a good trade. This team hits plenty of homeruns, even without Dunn. We need pitching help and more contact hitters - trading Dunn would be a step in the right direction. Keeping Dunn would be maintaining the status quo - how's that working out?

Popular or not, it has to be done. He will not be around next year with a pricetag of $13mil. So am I correct in believing that they can either get whatever they can now or get additional draft picks if he leaves via free agency?

I think the key to the Adam Dunn situation is whether or not the Reds are willing to pick up his option for next season. I think this is the best plan. That way they could trade him in the off season (the same way the Yankees did with Sheffield). That way Dunn would be able to stay with the team he is traded to for more value.

The bottom line for me is when do you think Jay Bruce will arrive in Cincinnati. He sure seems to be holding his own right now at AAA. I really hope he is in the Reds starting lineup on opening day next season. If Bruce is ready the Reds will have to move either Dunn or Griffey to make that happen. I can't see how the Reds can keep Bruce at AAA beyond this point next year so the Reds need a plan for this.

Also Jay where do you think Joey Votto fits in with Cincinnati? If you think he's a firstbasemen then the Reds need to move Hatteberg too don't they? If he is a leftfielder then that clogs the outfield up even more and almost requires a Dunn trade.

Bruce is a factor in all this. But given how slowly the Reds moved on Homer Bailey and the fact that Votto is in Triple-A, I'd be surprised if they went to spring training counting on Bruce being the everyday left fielder.

I'm surprised Votto hasn't gotten a short stint in the big leagues given all the roster moves.

Unless the Reds plan on upping their budget to, say, 90 million, it will be fruitless to bring back Dunn for 13.5 million. Teams with lopsided payrolls rarely go to the postseason. The notion that he could be signed and traded in the off-season also makes little sense as most teams don't see Dunn as being worth that kind of cash. The Reds may just better off letting him go and taking the compensatory draft picks.

DO NOT TRADE DUNN! Last year he pepresented 1/5 of the Cincy offense. An above average bulpen guy for him is good? No way. He is too good offensivly. and the other Homeruns? they are coming from guys like Gonzalex and Philips. Philips might hit 20 homeruns every year, but Gonzalez won't he's only done it one time in his career. And lets not forget if you trade Dunn then Hopper, Freel, and Griffy will have to all play better and hit more, i don't see 3 guys al deciding to hit the ball a lot better. especialy Griffy who is old. and if you trade Dunn then to have a 90 win team (without him) and have the same output from everyone else would mean the team would need to drop their ERA by .90. That's not so easy, besides he is walked a lot making him a good no. 2 hitter. If you want to Deal someone the deal Griffy and Hatteburg, and Coinine. Griffy's value has never been higher so get rid of him. Hamilton is better in right than center. and the platoon at first is good but combined they are 78 years old. They are done this year or the next year so dump them to a contender, they deserve it. and tha'll open up a spot for Votto to come to the bigs, or kepppingger. Oh and get rid of Stanton...Cut him if no one will take him he's old and useless. i wanna see guys like Salmon and McBeth in the bullpen. this is a team in transition let some youngsters play.

Given that Dunn's contract expires after this season, there has been talk that if Dunn would be traded he would most likely need to talk to the other teams to come up with an contract extension before the deal would get done. Given that we are only about 25 hours from the deadline, do you think there is still time for such a situation to occur?

Why not trade Dunn? While I agree pitching has been the main reason the Reds have been terrible for so long, Dunn doesn't do much for the team. He hits for power and walks. Period. Other than pitching, they need some guys that hit for average with speed and defense. The Reds have absolutely no one that hits for average, save for Hatteberg who isn't an everyday player and who may be traded as well.

I disagree. Dunn's numbers will continue to make him a lot of money. For what he provides, $13 mil is not outrageous for many. We are overly sensitive to his faults, while others see his virtues. He is in the top five in the NL in 2-out RBI, clutch hitting stat. He hits 40+ HR and scores and knocks in 100+ runs. Those are huge numbers and tough to fill. He does have limited no-trade clause when the option is picked up.

That was indeed my theory. And I could be wrong. When you write about what you think the Reds are going to do, you've got to speculate because Krivsky simply won't given you a clue of what he's trying to do other than "trying to improve the team."

I don't have a problem with this particular salary dump, as long as it is spent on a good starter (number 1 or 2) and some good bullpen help for next year. This team will score runs. It will next year. I like the pick-up of Cantu. Nobody has mentioned that. This guy can hit. It's time that lumbering giants make way for some speed. Bob Howsam had it right, even if that team was built for Astroturf. Pitching, defense, and timely hitting. Save the 3-run homers for the AL.

The Phillies have reportedly acquired Kyle Lohse from the Reds for left-hander Matt Maloney. That's just not particularly impressive for either side. Maloney ranked behind fellow lefties Josh Outman and J.A. Happ and was probably no better than the team's eighth or ninth best pitching prospect.

With teh potential good trades by Krisky for Cantu and moving Lohse, maybe we are seeing the good Krisky at work (read, not dealing w/ leather pants). If Dunn is traded, I would feel fairly confident we would get at least equal value.If Dunn isn't traded, expect the Reds to use some of Milton's money and Dunn's option to be picked up. Maybe they trade Dunn or maybe they don't. Remember that Griffey's contract is almost up too. Next year, I think you would move Griffey to make room for Bruce, and that is if the Reds are not in a playoff push. This team with 2-4 guys is a legit playoff team (in the NL). It is all about the closer and 1-2 set up guys you can trust.

So the Bengals win the Super Bowl and the Reds make the playoffs in 2008. I can live with that.

I would not trade Dunn unless big-time quality were received, or unless it was impossible to afford re-signing him. Saltamacchia is a big-time prospect giving hints about his potential but he's no Braun or Pence or Zimmerman in that he hasn't yet shown any big sustained offensive production in the majors, so I'm glad the Reds didn't give Dunn away for just Saltamacchia. Now for Salty and a pitching prospect or two, okay, try it. But they have to be big time pitching prospects that have some reasonable probability of making the club out of Spring Training in 2008 and STAYING.

Dunn is better than Teixeira. Why the push to get rid of Dunn? You people are crazy. Its not just pitching thats hurting this team. Dunn adds a lot to our lineup and his power production puts him elite air. You don't give up a historically good young power hitter in his prime for pennies on the dollar. They should just pick up his option next year and go from there.

I've been hearing a lot about Arroyo heading to Atlanta and some BIG time prospects coming our way (some potential power-maybe a Dunn replacement 2 year down the road). Have you been hearing anything about this today? Sounds very likely to happen.

I like Arroyo and feel like we have him signed at a very good price for a few years. Not sure it's the right thing for the team to do. I guess the biggest problem I see is that the moves that appear to be taking place or at least being tossed around are not going to help the team for another 2 year at least which means we go through another losing season next year for sure. Just hard to accept I guess.

The sad, but true facts are these. The Reds are a very poor team because, first and foremost, their hitters, though gifted, don't: (a) hit well with runners in scoring position; (b) don't give you a professional at bat by: (i) bunting successfully; (ii) moving runners over by hitting to the right side; or (iii) hitting sac flies. Dunn, Griffey and Ross are the main culprits here. They strike out a lot, can't bunt, and have no particularly interest in learning how to hit the ball to the right side to move runners over. All three should be sent packing for pitching prospects. Even if all you get for this sorry lot is 2-3 AA pitching prospects with high ceilings, you'd free up significant dollars which Krivsky or more likely (and hopefully) Walt Jocketty could use to sign players in the off-season such as Torii Hunter or Jermaine Dye who: play the game the right way and even when they're slumping, can bunt, move runners over, and steal a base. I'd prefer Grady Sizemore, but last time I checked he wasn't on the market.

The second reason the Reds are horrible is their D up the middle continues to be sub-par. Simple solutions here. Move Phillips to SS, his natural position, and A-Gonz to 2B. Next, sign or trade for a real catcher (read: a guy who hits for average, has a strong arm, and is a team leader). David Ross doesn't hit for average, is a poor catcher (in terms of catching pitches) and is simply not a team leader. Even if you can't find the guy immediately, at least sign Bench to coach the catchers. Bench had a rocket arm, caught pitches off the plate with such ease it was sick, hit for power, and played the game the right way. The fact that Bench is not coaching Reds' catchers is simply inexplicable.

The third reason the Reds are horrible is, of course, because their bullpen is awful. When was the last time the Reds' bullpen was brilliant? Nasty boys, right? What did all the Nasty boys have in common? They were ALL power pitchers. Who is in the Reds' bullpen? A 43 year-old (Mike Stanton) going on 60 who couldn't break a plane of glass. A closer who tops out in the high 80's and has no "out pitch," and various and sundry other guys who don't relieve very often because they are so unreliable.

Net net? Trade Dunn? For gosh sake yes, trade him. Even if all you get back is some single or double A prospects, you'd free up salary. And trade Stanton, Belisle, Hatteberg, Conine, and any one else on this team you can (except Harang and Arroyo) for the same reason, and start from scratch.

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