Rasmussen: McAuliffe maintains his lead over Cuccinelli… by 17 points?

posted at 1:21 pm on October 23, 2013 by Erika Johnsen

Yesterday, I mentioned Team McAuliffe’s kind of puzzling move to court the support of Michael Bloomberg and his well-monied gun-control ilk, given that major gun-control issues and Bloomberg’s interference haven’t played too well with Virginians lately and that doing so will only undergird his image as a national and not a Virginia Democrat, but that he must think the potential for any Republican backlash against the move is worth the risk.

Democrat Terry McAuliffe has jumped to a 17-point lead over Republican Ken Cuccinelli in the Virginia gubernatorial race following the federal government shutdown that hit Northern Virginia hard and Hillary Clinton’s weekend visit to the state.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Virginia Voters finds McAuliffe with 50% support to Cuccinelli’s 33%. Libertarian candidate Robert Sarvis is a distant third with eight percent (8%) of the vote. Three percent (3%) like some other candidate, while five percent (5%) remain undecided.

The poll was conducted on October 20th, and Rasmussen’s pre-shutdown poll showed only a 6-point gap between the two candidates, so some lessons there would seem to be that A) the shutdown was really not a helpful development for Cuccinelli, and B) that Hillary Clinton is a mighty useful ally to have on your team.

The 17-point gap is rather a suspiciously huge outlier compared to other recent polls, however, especially with the Quinnipiac poll out today that showed McAuliffe with the more regular gap of 7 points. The pollsters argue that the new numbers closely align with their mid-shutdown numbers, and that ergo, the shutdown didn’t have quite the effect many are prepared to think it did:

Virginia gubernatorial candidate Terry McAuliffe leads Republican Ken Cuccinelli 46 to 39 percent in a new Quinnipiac poll, numbers that remain virtually unchanged from the government shutdown even though 47 percent of likely Virginia voters say it affected their state “a great deal.” …

“The double-digit presence of Libertarian Robert Sarvis on the ballot creates a major uncertainty,” said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling institute. “The big question about Sarvis is whether his voters will stick with him to the end, or wind up voting for McAuliffe or Republican State Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli.”

“Generally over the past decades, especially in southern states like Virginia, Republicans win when they have strong party allegiance among their base. One reason McAuliffe is ahead is that he wins 92 percent of Democrats while Cuccinelli has only 81 percent of Republicans. If Cuccinelli can’t bring more Republicans home, he is likely to be toast,” Brown said.

Both the new Quinnipiac and the Rasmussen polls bring the RCP average at McAuliffe +9.6 points, and a PPP poll of early voting says that McAuliffe is running away with the early votes so far:

The survey, conducted by the Democratic firm Public Policy Polling for the League of Conservation Voters, a liberal environmental advocacy group, found McAuliffe taking 57 percent of early voters, compared with 39 percent for GOP Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli.

That margin is similar to current GOP Gov. Bob McDonnell’s early vote leads in 2009: four years ago, according to figures from the state Board of Elections cited by PPP, he led among early voters by 18 points as well, 59 percent to 41 percent.

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Wasn’t the shutdown effectively a two-week vacation with pay that doesn’t count against your vacation allocation, for the 28% of federal employees affected? If I’m a greedy-union federal type, I’m hoping for a couple more of those.

I don’t buy 17 points. But you can’t turn on the television without seeing an ad for Terry McAuliffe. Not so much for Cuccinelli. I’m hoping there is a different story downstate where he is apt to have a more favorable audience.

I don’t buy 17 points. But you can’t turn on the television without seeing an ad for Terry McAuliffe. Not so much for Cuccinelli. I’m hoping there is a different story downstate where he is apt to have a more favorable audience.

Happy Nomad on October 23, 2013 at 1:31 PM

And McAuliffe is running ads that say Cuccinelli will ban birth control pills. I mean I know Repubs think we should be above the “fray” but there should at least be ads out there disputing this and telling the voters that McAuliffes lies and thinks you are stupid.

I am dumbfounded. I guess that Northern Virginians who work in Washington for the federal government are heavily Democrats. They all need to be rounded up and sent to live in the District of Columbia. I understand that the crime and school systems are excellent in the District.

Within 5 years, there will be split in VA. Mark my words. There also will be other states that split, the most prominent being Oregon and the few sane parts of Cali. – nobar on October 23, 2013 at 1:38 PM

And, where is this allowed in the constitution? West Virginia was only allowed to split off from Virginia because of the War Between the States. When Texas did join the Union, it was joined with the conditional agreement it that could be split into five states. I don’t even think that would be conditional agreement would be honored today.

I know Repubs think we should be above the “fray” but there should at least be ads out there disputing this and telling the voters that McAuliffes lies and thinks you are stupid.

melle1228 on October 23, 2013 at 1:33 PM

My biggest complaint about the Cuccinelli campaign. I think he and his surrogates should get out there and call out these lies for what they are. Only the most stupid of women would think that Ken is looking to ban birth control.

How can virginia be so open to Terry? Those ads the cooch is running are awesome, about how unserious Terry is. ugh.

joeindc44 on October 23, 2013 at 1:58 PM

I’ve seen it on HA but not once on the airwaves here in NoVa. Which is my point. I know that he doesn’t have all that outside money coming into his campaign but he seems to have disappeared off the planet. I can only hope he’s cultivating votes in more fertile ground.

Whenever a candidate goes to the head of his party to convince the bosses that he doesn’t need to go through a Primary here is a hint: that candidate badly needs to be in a Primary.

Cuccinelli needed name recognition that a State-wide primary would have brought, even if he only had a lackluster opponent the actual going around the State gets exposure. Instead he convinced the bosses to give him a ‘get out of Primary free’ pass and now he pays for it. If someone wants to avoid a Primary there is something wrong with them and what is wrong with Cuccinelli is lack of media skills at the State level. His anti-Obamacare exposure is not enough to gain traction on other issues and he left the field open so he could be painted as ANYTHING by McAuliffe and the D’s. That has happened because Cuccinelli has no central message, no theme and no media savvy.

How can virginia be so open to Terry? Those ads the cooch is running are awesome, about how unserious Terry is. ugh.

joeindc44 on October 23, 2013 at 1:58 PM

Most voters in Virginia hate both candidates. Turnout is likely to be historically low. Basically, folks in the Commonwealth see the choice as being between a thief and a nut, and people are choosing the thief.

If Sarvis had run any sort of campaign at all, he could’ve won. In fact, I expect even write-in candidates to have a good election day.

Wow, I had no idea Virginians could be so influenced by a pasty-white fat geriatric woman whose major accomplishments consist of standing by while her old man kept chubby chicks under the desk and “What difference does it make!” Whatever. Virginia, you’re dead to me.

This. The main reason Cuch got elected in thei first place was riding the McDonnell/Bolling train in the last election.

Why should the central committee of the VA GOP decide who the nominee is? It was nothing more than payback to Bolling for not toeing the line. A primary is a damn good testing ground for a candidate. If they’re good, they’ll get the nomination.

Now, it’s blowing up in their faces due to 1) Ken being a crappy campaigner, 2) Ken having less than 1/2 the money McAuliffe does, 3) Ladyparts, 4) The VA GOP losing complete control of the convention they engineered, 5) Northern Virginia and 6)McDonnell’s scandals.

Like we did in the last election, the Dem’s will sweep the Governor, Lt. Governor and Atty. General offices this year.

Ha! I thought Bolling was the RINO? Oh, I get it. Because Cuccinelli is losing in a landslide, now he’s the RINO.

GOPRanknFile on October 23, 2013 at 1:35 PM

Interesting how conservatives always owe their votes to the GOP statists when they get the nominations, but when the conservatives get the nominations, not only do the GOP statists now owe them their votes, but it is, evidently, their duty to to campaign and work against the conservatives.

As Early Grayce once said, “I was wondering how come. See what I’m getting at? It’s like ‘Hmm?’.”

Now, it’s blowing up in their faces due to 1) Ken being a crappy campaigner, 2) Ken having less than 1/2 the money McAuliffe does, 3) Ladyparts, 4) The VA GOP losing complete control of the convention they engineered, 5) Northern Virginia and 6)McDonnell’s scandals.

BacaDog on October 23, 2013 at 2:53 PM

It’s due primarily to two things: (1) McDonnell scandals, and (2) statist GOP actively fighting against Cuccinelli so they can say “told you so.” And, the first would be just as big a problem for Bolling as Cuccinelli, if not more so.

Within 5 years, there will be split in VA. Mark my words. There also will be other states that split, the most prominent being Oregon and the few sane parts of Cali. –

nobar on October 23, 2013 at 1:38 PM

And, where is this allowed in the constitution? West Virginia was only allowed to split off from Virginia because of the War Between the States. When Texas did join the Union, it was joined with the conditional agreement it that could be split into five states. I don’t even think that would be conditional agreement would be honored today.

SC.Charlie on October 23, 2013 at 1:44 PM

Creating a new state is very difficult, but mostly that’s not what’s being proposed. It’s relatively easier to move a border of a state, so that counties that want to leave Virginia, or Colorado, can join an adjoining state.

Interesting how conservatives always owe their votes to the GOP statists when they get the nominations, but when the conservatives get the nominations, not only do the GOP statists now owe them their votes, but it is, evidently, their duty to to campaign and work against the conservatives.

As Early Grayce once said, “I was wondering how come. See what I’m getting at? It’s like ‘Hmm?’.”

besser tot als rot on October 23, 2013 at 2:58 PM

Meh. The converse is also true. McCain and Romney presidential campaigns anyone?

If what I said is taken as true, it is, as a matter of logic, impossible for the converse to also be true.

besser tot als rot on October 23, 2013 at 3:17 PM

I didn’t agree with your whole statement, just because I quoted your whole statement. You can find plenty of people who post on here who not only did not vote for Romney, but actively campaigned against him because he was a “RINO.”

I’ve heard this a thousand times and every time it sounds more short sighted ad foolish.

The simple math is you have to elect one of them. That is unfortunately the choice Virginian’s have.

This is really about what type of future Virginia wants.

Given the evidence around our country what people of McAuliffe’s party and political beliefs has done, it is pretty clear how he will govern- and that’s not a good story for Virginia.
So you can sit home and not show up. But when the hammer falls on Virginia in the form of following lock step on the Obama agenda and a loss of Second Amendment rights- Virginians will have nobody to blame but themselves.

You can find plenty of people who post on here who not only did not vote for Romney, but actively campaigned against him because he was a “RINO.”

GOPRanknFile on October 23, 2013 at 3:20 PM

And, this generally doesn’t do anything to rebut my argument – it is entirely consistent with what I said.

Those people were told to vote for and support Romney. And if they didn’t they were treated as worse than scum. Because their vote was owed to the statist GOP candidate. And when that statist lost, they were blamed for the loss. It was their fault that he lost – because they didn’t vote for him and actively support him – not the statist candidate’s fault for failing to motivate the people to support him.

But, here, it is obviously Cuccinelli’s fault for losing, right? It’s not the citizen’s fault anymore is it? WHy not? You see what I’m getting at? It’s like, ‘Hmm.’ In cases like this, you actually have a good portion of the GOP apparatchik going against Cuccinelli. So they can tell everyone “we told you so!!” Same thing with Lugar, etc. Who did that with Romney? Heck, even Rand Paul endorsed and campaigned for Romney! You even had Ann Coulter destroying her reputation going out there saying, “Three Cheers for Romneycare!!”

But, here, it is obviously Cuccinelli’s fault for losing, right? It’s not the citizen’s fault anymore is it? WHy not? You see what I’m getting at? It’s like, ‘Hmm.’ In cases like this, you actually have a good portion of the GOP apparatchik going against Cuccinelli. So they can tell everyone “we told you so!!” Same thing with Lugar, etc. Who did that with Romney? Heck, even Rand Paul endorsed and campaigned for Romney! You even had Ann Coulter destroying her reputation going out there saying, “Three Cheers for Romneycare!!”

besser tot als rot on October 23, 2013 at 3:34 PM

Lol let’s get real. My point is both sides do the same thing. If you nominate a RINO and he/she loses, the establishment blames the base for not supporting the RINO and the base blames the RINO and establishment for offering up a terrible candidate. If you nominate a Tea Partier, same thing applies. The establishment will blame the base and the candidate for putting up a terrible candidate and the base will blame the establishment for not supporting the candidate 100%. I support the TP candidate occasionally (Haley, Rubio, Cruz, Paul, Lee, etc.) and sometimes I’ll support the establishment candidate (Lowden, Norton, Castle, Steelman, etc.). I look at the candidates and see who the best choice is.

I knew from the start as soon as Cuccinelli was nominated, we were doomed. Cuccinelli had favorable dynamics: A Dem just won the presidential election, which in VA, bodes well for the candidate of the opposite party, Obama is growing more and more unpopular, and he’s running against TERRY McAULIFFE. Instead of running away with this thing, he’s getting dominated. Romney only lost VA by about 4 points last year. Bolling would have won this thing going away. This nominating convention business is nonsense. We should have had a primary.

Cuccinelli has not lost yet. There are enough republican voters to overwhelm the democrat likely voters, if everyone that voted for Romney gets out to vote for Cuccinelli. Romney got tons more voters in VA for president than the republicans that turned out for McDonnell, the previous dem gubernatorial election, and the dems did not turn out for their candidate last time. That is the unknown, they may have liked the appearance of the newly energized Hilary this weekend, complete with campaign hair instead of whatever that was she wore as Secretary of State.

If the Obama identity voters do not get to the polls, McCaulliffe cannot get the numbers in the Obama vote. I don’t know how many that is, that don’t vote unless Obama is on the ballot. ( Virginia 2012 1,971,820 votes.)

To quote Mme Sebelius, if the republicans “bring their A game” they can get enough votes to win, especially if the counties that went for Romney energize, plus we hear “republicans stayed home because Romney wasn’t conservative enough,” but that is not true of Cuccinelli. It would behoove people who say republicans are not running conservative enough candidates to get out and help with this and show us how it is done.

The likely voters in the polls are a problem, they might be right on the mark, or it could be way off. The recent poll was taken while the newly improved Hilary, wearing a wig? no black glasses was plastered all over TV and democrats were wishing they had elected her the last time…a longing for those happy years of Irrational $ exuberance.

My point is both sides do the same thing. If you nominate a RINO and he/she loses, the establishment blames the base for not supporting the RINO and the base blames the RINO and establishment for offering up a terrible candidate. If you nominate a Tea Partier, same thing applies. The establishment will blame the base and the candidate for putting up a terrible candidate and the base will blame the establishment for not supporting the candidate 100%.

GOPRanknFile on October 23, 2013 at 3:47 PM

You actually just agreed with everything that I wrote. Thank you. When the statist GOP candidates don’t win, they blame the voters because they own our votes. When a conservative candidate gets the nomination, the statist GOP apparatchik work against him because they’d rather lose than have a conservative win so they can tell everyone “we told you so” and hope to keep their favored position in the big government, statist spoils system of governance that we currently have.

i’m sorry to see the VAGOP fade into oblivion. Looks like and IL type death spiral. I knew, from a long way away, that george allen was going to lose in 12…that was easy.

i didn’t know that the current Guv was crooked. I did know the the AG was on ever leftists love to hate list because of the Michael Mann stuff.

besides, there’s enough DC outflow (boomtown) to yield great benes for the left.

my basic concern…a deep blue VA means the margin that the gop has at the prezy level is thin…very thin. Welcome to 40 years of left wing rule…and barry has sketched out the way FWD for leftists prezies…do things administratively…no need for congress

You actually just agreed with everything that I wrote. Thank you. When the statist GOP candidates don’t win, they blame the voters because they own our votes. When a conservative candidate gets the nomination, the statist GOP apparatchik work against him because they’d rather lose than have a conservative win so they can tell everyone “we told you so” and hope to keep their favored position in the big government, statist spoils system of governance that we currently have.

besser tot als rot on October 23, 2013 at 4:03 PM

I agreed that the establishment does do that. But then I also pointed out that the base does the very same thing when a RINO or establishment gets the nomination.The two are not mutually exclusive. You stated that when a conservative candidate gets the nomination… And then you also pointed out when the establishment candidate gets the nomination and loses…You conveniently left out when the conservative candidate gets the nomination and loses…and also if the establishment candidate gets the nomination and wins. Once again, nice try.

I wish someone could offer me a rational explanation for why the general public leans right in its philosophical & policy preferences, yet consistently votes for the far left?

I really just don’t get it.

SAMinVA on October 23, 2013 at 2:10 PM

It’s simple. A lot of people generally identify as conservative in philosophy and say they don’t want a big government that spends lots of money on things except for the things that benefit them. If you grow government enough to the point you’re giving everybody something (including things like Social Security and Medicare) their conservative philosophy gets liberal on the specifics. That’s what’s happened over the last century or so and why conservatives are basically reduced to holding the line where the liberals last moved it. There are still some good people out there who stand for the reduction of government even if it’s going to negatively affect them but that group stopped being an electoral majority years ago. It’s very sad but true.

If that’s the attitude then how are we ever going to get 270 electoral votes ever again? If we’re writing off Virginia then we could win all the states Romney did in 2012 plus Florida, Ohio, Iowa and Colorado and we would still lose the election.

But then I also pointed out that the base does the very same thing when a RINO or establishment gets the nomination.

GOPRanknFile on October 23, 2013 at 4:07 PM

You realize that “the base” is made up of “voters” or at least “a good chunk of voters” right? I mean – we’ve clearly established that your English language skills are lacking, so maybe you don’t. I don’t know. But, it’s impossible to have a reasoned debate with someone who doesn’t even understand basic vocabulary.

If that’s the attitude then how are we ever going to get 270 electoral votes ever again? If we’re writing off Virginia then we could win all the states Romney did in 2012 plus Florida, Ohio, Iowa and Colorado and we would still lose the election.

alchemist19 on October 23, 2013 at 4:18 PM

Winning an election isn’t the end. It is supposed to be a means to an end. If it is going to be treated as the end itself, I don’t really see the point.

You realize that “the base” is made up of “voters” or at least “a good chunk of voters” right? I mean – we’ve clearly established that your English language skills are lacking, so maybe you don’t. I don’t know. But, it’s impossible to have a reasoned debate with someone who doesn’t even understand basic vocabulary.

besser tot als rot on October 23, 2013 at 4:19 PM

Good job stating the obvious that “the base” is composed of voters. Your reading comprehension skills could use a tune-up. I hope you’ll consider doing that soon.

Something has been funky with Rasmussen polling for some time now since Scott Rasmussen left the company he founded. I’m not saying that Cucinelli isn’t behind by at least 7 points, but 17? Come on.

Also, they consistently show Obama’s approval rating at around 50% when Gallup and other polls are far lower day to day. Strange.

conservativemusician on October 23, 2013 at 4:23 PM

I think there was actually another poll showing Cuccinelli behind by about the same amount. Cuccinelli would have been a great candidate in a red state, but he doesn’t play well in a purple/trending blue state like VA.

I think there was actually another poll showing Cuccinelli behind by about the same amount. Cuccinelli would have been a great candidate in a red state, but he doesn’t play well in a purple/trending blue state like VA.

GOPRanknFile on October 23, 2013 at 4:31 PM

Pfffffft! The reason Virginia is purple/trending blue is because Teh Establishment keeps on nominating a bunch of RINO squish wuss candidates who don’t stand for anything so the base stays home and the Democrats win. Cuccinelli though is exactly the kind of bright, articulate, unabashed conservative candidate we’ve been waiting for and for whom the base will turn out for in droves. Just keep watching and don’t believe the polls; Cuccinelli has got this one in the bag.

Pfffffft! The reason Virginia is purple/trending blue is because Teh Establishment keeps on nominating a bunch of RINO squish wuss candidates who don’t stand for anything so the base stays home and the Democrats win. Cuccinelli though is exactly the kind of bright, articulate, unabashed conservative candidate we’ve been waiting for and for whom the base will turn out for in droves. Just keep watching and don’t believe the polls; Cuccinelli has got this one in the bag.

WTF is Cuccinelli doing? I don’t see his ads ANYWHERE? And I can’t go ANYWHERE without avoiding that putz McAuliffe’s ads. This is very distressing. Mr Cucc…..get out of the bunker! McAuliffe is a fatally flawed candidate….EXPLOIT THAT!

Actually I have the same hope. I can’t believe Cuccinelli is having this much trouble. He is a person that the base could and has voted for in the past. He is the answer for them getting out and voting in a couple of weeks. Actually the entire ticket is the same. These three men are exactly what Virginia has needed. These are the three that the Republican base has been asking for.

I do know that our particular Republican Party in the city and the county have been totally and unabashedly lazy about getting out the vote. There are plenty of Republican votes to be had, but the so-called Victory Office has been purposefully dragging their collective feet for the past 5 months. No signs out in front of the office and little enthusiasm because they perceive these guys as tea party. The tea party is not popular in our area because we have caught the Republican leaders lying to us and also being somewhat criminal in the way they do business. Naturally people are fed up with the leadership. Democrats do not exist in this part of the world, but it’s no problem because these so-called leaders probably used to be Democrats in another time. They turned Republican all of a sudden when they decided to run for office.

The few Republicans I have talked to just feed back the newspaper talking points about the candidates. Listening to the media Cuccinelli is a goner, but he is the candidate that should win. He’s not ULTRA Conservative. I do not even pretend to know what that means. He is pro-life. Actually he is pro-Constitution, including the VA Constitution. If he loses there is only the Elitist Republican Party to blame. They have not helped him on the local level at all. Obama and Reid are not the enemy in this case, it is the RINOS who will not compete, just like Obama, they are entitled.

There is not alot to say, ‘cept hang on in the Old Dominion.
That anyone of any party would even consider this scurrilous idiot
TMac is beyond me. That my fellow Virginians that are Dems
would even nominate him is so damn depressing its going to take a few more Coors Lights to go to sleep. I’m blaming Northern Virginiastan.

What will be
interesting is the precinct and county
breakdowns compared to the last Presidential.

Just remember, Hillbeech waited until the very last
minute to endorse the flimflam man who nevertheless
raised $400M for the Clitons. Only if:

1. Sure he would win
2. He Brings Va.

Her endorsement was the beginning of Hillbeech 2016.
Thats what this Va Gooberntorial Election is about.

As long as the Dems play the war on women card and women believe their lies…GOP is a goner. And unfortunately, the msm plays the dem drum

If we lose VA by double digits to a very flawed Dem candidate, we don’t stand a chance next year and certainly not in 2016

Redford on October 23, 2013 at 7:05 PM

Virginia doesn’t necessarily portend disaster in 2014 and 2016. Even if it goes badly there’s still time to analyze and learn from the results in advance of the midterms and the next presidential election.