MONTHLY SITUATION REPORT FOR ETHIOPIA , 12/97

UNDP-EUE

Consolidated UN report prepared by the Information Section of the
UNDP Emergencies Unit for Ethiopia from information and reports provided
by specialised UN agencies, media sources, the Government and NGOs

HIGHLIGHTS

* The US Secretary of State, Madeleine Albright, paid a brief visit
to Ethiopia at the start of a seven nation tour of Africa. She met with
Prime Minister Meles Zenawi and gave an address to the OAU and local diplomatic
community outlining US policy towards the region;

* Also visiting Ethiopia, the International Monetary Fund deputy director,
Alassane Ouattara, pressed for the further liberalisation of the economy
with more private investment allowed in the financial sector and telecommunications;

* As floods recede in the east of the country, fears rise concerning
possible major outbreaks of malaria and dysentery;

* FAO and WFP release the final report of the 1997 Crop and Food Supply
Mission concluding that total production is 26 percent down on 1996 at
just under 8.8 million tons. Meanwhile, grain markets show unseasonal fluctuations
while overall prices remain 30 percent higher than the same time last year;

* US acts quickly in response to the 1998 Government of Ethiopia appeal
by pledging 75,000 tons of food relief assistance; meanwhile, the European
Union has confirmed a pledge of 23,500 tons in response to an earlier appeal;

* The DPPC considers post-harvest assessments in selected areas to determine
the impact of the unseasonable heavy rains in October/November.

GENERAL EVENTS AND DEVELOPMENTS

US Secretary of State visits Ethiopia: Madeleine K. Albright,
the United States Foreign Minister, paid a short visit to Ethiopia from
8 to 10 December, on the start of a tour of seven African nations to open
a dialogue with people from all parts of Africa. In Addis Ababa, Mrs. Albright
met, among others, Ethiopian Prime Minister Meles Zenawi, OAU Secretary
General Salim Ahmed Salim and the Executive Secretary of the United Nations
Economic Commission for Africa (UNECA), Mr. K. Y. Amoako. She also met
with a group of students to discuss issues of civic education and democracy.

The US Secretary of State expressed her government's commitment to increase
support for Ethiopia's development endeavours. During talks with Prime
Minister Meles on a wide range of issues, Mrs. Albright confirmed that
the US government will continue to assist the efforts being made to implement
the development strategy of the country. Addressing African diplomats at
Africa Hall, she also confirmed her government's commitment to the region:
"Africa matters. And right now, no place matters more in Africa than
the Great Lakes."

More high-ranking US visitors: Shortly prior to Mrs's
Albrights visit, a US Presidential trade delegation led by Congressman,
Charles B. Rangel, met with President Negasso Gidada and Prime Minister
Meles Zenawi to have talks on the existing relations between Ethiopia and
the United States and developments on the African continent at large. While
highlighting the growing US commitment to Africa, Congressman Rangel said
the on-going economic reform in Ethiopia could be exemplary to other African
countries. Furthermore he stated, that the United States will support and
stand by Ethiopia in promoting trade and investment between the two countries.
The delegation comprised representatives from the legislative and executive
branches of the US government as well as business executives and entrepreneurs.

Earlier in December, yet another US delegation, four congressmen led
by Tom Campbell of California, visited the country to focus on bilateral
relations, the situation in the Horn of Africa and Ethiopia's relations
with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the African Development
Bank. After visiting different parts of the country, the delegates expressed
American support to Ethiopia's right to utilise her share from the Abay
River (Blue Nile).

Shortly after Mrs's Albrights visit two members of the US Senate Foreign
Relations Committee, Chris Walker and Michael Westphal, arrived in Addis
Ababa to meet with senior Ethiopian government officials to discuss regional
security issues.

French to increase co-operation and aid: During a visit
to Addis Ababa, the French Minister for Co-operation and Francophonie,
Charles Josselin, commended Ethiopia's effort in the sphere of development
and peace. At an Ethio-French Joint Commission meeting it was noted that
Ethiopia and France will in the future expand and broaden their long standing
relationship and co-operation covering also new and different areas such
as political dialogue and economic and commercial relations. During his
visit from 6 to 8 December, Minister Josselin also pledged a substantial
increase in French food aid to Ethiopia during 1998.

Co-operation with Sweden also to intensify: In order to
further deepen the long-standing relations between Ethiopia and Sweden,
Pierre Schori, the Swedish Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs and Minister
for International Development, Migration and Asylum Policy visited Addis
Ababa in mid-December. The Swedish delegation also visited Bahar Dar, the
capital of Amhara Region, where a Swedish long-term programme for rural
development has started with the aim to improve living standards of the
population by a sustainable increase in agriculture production. The broader
partnership relation between Ethiopia and Sweden will, among others, be
reflected in an Ethio-Swedish Trade Fair scheduled to be held in Addis
Ababa from 26 to 30 January 1998.

Symposium on Human Rights: In conjunction with the third
anniversary of the adoption of the Ethiopian Federal Constitution, President
Negasso Gidada said on the 8 December opening a Human Rights Symposium
that the people of Ethiopia are currently undertaking various political,
economic and social activities by taking advantage of the different rights
the Federal Constitution provided them. "On the whole, our constitution
is a supreme law of the country which ensures respect for basic human rights
of individuals and peoples", the president said.

IMF advocates liberalisation of Ethiopia's economy: Meeting
Prime Minister Meles Zenawi, the Deputy Managing Director of the International
Monetary Fund (IMF), Alassane D. Ouattara, expressed his strong belief
in reform and liberalisation of the economy. Ouattara, accompanied by three
senior officials, visited Addis Ababa in mid-December at the invitation
of Prime Minister Meles to negotiate US $20 million of extended structural
adjustment programme (ESAP) assistance suspended last October due to failure
of agreement between the two parties which led to a souring of relations.
The opening of the banking sector to more local and foreign competition,
the restructuring of the financial sector in order to allow the interest
rate to be determined by the market and more participation of the private
sector in telecommunications, power and land ownership were among the controversial
issues highlighted by the IMF Deputy Managing Director.

World Bank lends Ethiopia 200 million dollars: A 200 million
dollar credit for Ethiopia's energy sector development was approved by
the World Bank on 11 December. According to a WB statement, the loan will
be used to "improve the efficiency and sustainability of Ethiopia's
power sector through institutional capacity building, rural energy development,
and the construction of a hydroelectric power plant along the Gilgel Gibe
River".

Japanese grant of 12.7 million dollars: Japan is to grant
Ethiopia 12.7 million dollars to finance food production and power reinforcement
projects following two agreements signed in the capital on 18 December.
Under the first agreement, 6.4 million dollars are to be used to purchase
and transport agricultural chemicals, machinery and equipment to help strengthen
and improve development of agriculture and increase food production. Under
the second, 6.3 million dollars are designed to help implement power reinforcement
network projects in Addis Ababa.

Ethiopia and Turkey to strengthen ties: Ethiopia and Turkey
have signed a memorandum of understanding calling for joint ministerial
meetings to strengthen their economic and trade ties. The agreement was
signed by Ethiopian Trade and Industry Minister Kassahun Ayele and visiting
Turkish Minister of State Mehamet Batalli.

Terrorists on trial in Addis: Fourteen people, including
eleven Somali Moslem radicals, are on trial in the Ethiopian Federal High
Court on charges of terrorism, the official Ethiopian News Agency (ENA)
reported on Christmas Eve. Charges filed against the accused include being
members of a Somali terrorist group, Al-Itihad Al-Islam, and having
carried out terrorist acts such as hotel bombings (Ghion and Wabi Shebelle
in Addis Ababa, Ras Hotel in Dire Dawa), planting explosives in a passenger
bus heading for Mekele, killing a Dutch national in Dire Dawa and trying
to assassinate Transport and Communications Minister, Abdulmejid Hussein.

Earlier, at the beginning of December, 31 alleged members and supporters
of the banned Oromo Liberation Front (OLF) were charged with terrorism
and involvement in a series of grenade and bomb attacks in the capital
and the east of the country. According to a statement released by the Ethiopian
Prosecution Office the 31 people were also charged "with arms stockpiling,
destroying property as well as killings".

Five million desperate children: Close to five million
children in Ethiopia live in an extremely difficult condition owing to
pressing socio-economic problems. This was revealed in a study, presented
recently by the Ministry of Labour and Socials Affairs. The paper stated,
that thousands of children were left to live without proper care due to
famine, drought and displacement, being forced to live in poverty in streets
and orphanages. According to estimates, there are about one million street
children in Ethiopia.

Digging for gold: An agreement was signed in early December
between the government and the private company JCI Ethiopia for the exploration
of gold, base metals and associated minerals in Borena Zone, Oromyia Regional
State. The exclusive exploration rights cover the next three years while
the company's estimated spending during this period will be 10 million
dollars.

AGRICULTURE AND WEATHER REPORTS

Crop pests

The Crop Pest Division of the Ministry of Agriculture, in co-operation
with the Desert Locust Control Organisation, conducted surveys throughout
December in East Hararghe (Oromyia Region) and Jijiga (Somali Region) Zones
to locate grain-eating birds (mainly Quelea quelea) and taking control
measures if necessary. Army worm infestations affecting teff crops was
reported from two weredas (Burji and Amaro) in Southern Region and affecting
teff, wheat and barley in four weredas (Shakiso, Liban, Adola, Wadera)
of Borena Zone in Oromyia Region. Action was taken by spraying insecticides.

According to media reports, the Borena Zone Agriculture Department also
sprayed 1,880 hectares of land with insecticides to prevent the infestation
of hairy caterpillars which started to occur in early December.

Grain markets

While cereal wholesale prices in the Addis Ababa market showed little
change in the first half of December, a price decline was quite evident
in the third week of December. Between the second and the third week, cereal
prices fell rather sharply: teff 10.7 percent, barley 9 percent, sorghum
4.8 percent and wheat 2.7 percent. Only maize did not (in the third week)
follow the declining trend, showing a price increase of more than 16 percent
in Addis Ababa. However, the general wholesale price decline observed in
the third week of December did not continue to prevail in the fourth week.
In Addis Ababa market, the price situation reversed with all cereals but
sorghum, which decreased sharply by 15.4 percent, mainly due to a 25 percent
increase in market volumes, increasing in price. The real surprise of the
week, according to the Weekly Market Information Flash of the Grain Market
Research Project, was, however, the increase of the teff price by 12.8
percent. The reasons could be flow decline by some 27 percent and the onset
of Ramadan and the approaching of the Ethiopian Christmas. Furthermore,
market anticipation that there will be supply shortage ahead due to unseasonal
rains might be another reason for the teff price increase. Another surprise
was that the maize price started to decline. Overall, cereal prices at
the end of 1997 were about 30 percent higher than during the same period
in 1996.

The first dekad of December saw a significant decrease in rainfall activity
across the country, compared to the last dekad of the previous month. Satellite
data indicated rainfall for early December limited to few areas over southern
and south-western parts of Ethiopia (as is normal for the time of year),
with relatively high rainfall over the southern tip of the Southern Region.
This trend continued throughout the second dekad of the month with further
significant decreases, limiting rainfall activity only to Gambella and
Southern Region. In the last dekad, rainfall ranging from 15 mm to 90 mm
was registered mainly over some parts of Southern and Somali Regions, while
the rest of the country was dry. Precipitation over Gambella decreased
while it slightly increased over Somali Region.

The generally dry weather conditions favoured harvest and post-harvest
activities. In pastoral areas, the weather patterns of December allowed
the further regeneration of grazing lands and improved availability of
drinking water.

FOOD AID AND LOGISTICS

Emergency Food Security Reserve

The Emergency Food Security Reserve, which was critical to the success
of relief operations in 1997, had a physical balance of 125,772 tons as
of 8 January 1998. Although this is well below the Reserve's total notional
stock of 307,000 tons, there are already repayments in the ports waiting
for delivery to the EFSR and the major portion of emergency food arrivals
over the next three months will be for repayments to the Reserve.

1997 Food Aid Pledges and Carry-overs into 1998

By the end of 1997 total grain and pulse pledges against the various
1997 appeals amounted to 204,965 tons, excluding the very recent European
Union pledge of 23,500 tons against the DPPC belg appeal.

Although there were fairly substantial food aid stocks in Djibouti and
Assab at the end of the month, most of these shipments were repayments
to the Emergency Food Security Reserve and will not be counted as carry-over
stocks. Up-country carry-over stocks will also probably be limited as the
DPPC feels that the November/December distributions will have utilised
most in-country stocks. However, the European Union pledge of 23,500 tons,
because it was announced in late December, will be an additional carry-over
into 1998.

The tentative shipping schedule of emergency grain shipments for early
1998 is given below. However, as with the current port stocks, most of
the arrivals listed below are destined for the Emergency Food Reserve and
can not be considered carry-over stocks.

Month

Donor

Commodity

Assab

Djibouti

January

Euronaid

Wheat

6,446

2,000

January

WFP

Wheat

6,824

February

Euronaid

Wheat

8,000

February

WFP

Wheat

3,000

March

CIDA

Wheat

12,500

March

WFP

Wheat

13,546

2nd Quarter `98

Various

Wheat

30,788

8,000

Source: WFP Food Aid Status, 23 December 1997

1998 Food Aid Pledges

In the 28 November Government appeal for 1998 the DPPC requested 572,835
tons of food to meet urgent relief needs for the coming year. On 11 December
the United States government announced a pledge of 75,000 tons of wheat
and sorghum in response to this appeal. In the same press release the US
government congratulated the government of Ethiopia on "... its strenuous
efforts to reduce the food deficit..." and stated that the US would
continue to assist Ethiopia's efforts to become food self-sufficient. Other
donors have also indicated their support for the DPPC appeal but as of
the end of December the 75,000 tons from the US is the only confirmed pledge.
As the DPPC estimates a food requirement of over 300,000 tons from December
to the end of May, donors are urged to announce pledges as early as possible.

Assessments

As part of the on-going effort to refine and enhance the Early Warning
System, the DPPC called together the Early Warning Working Group (comprising
representatives of UN agencies, donors and NGOs) on 22 December to discuss
plans for reviewing three draft early warning manuals, the first components
of a series of five covering food security, crops, livestock, agro-meteorology
and markets. Also discussed was the annual needs assessment of pastoral
areas (Somali region, Borena zone of Oromiya and South Omo zone of the
Southern region) that will take place in late December/early January and
the possibility of doing a post-harvest needs assessment in selected highland
areas. Although post-harvest needs assessments are not normally part of
the DPPC assessment schedule, the peculiar rains in October and November
had both negative and positive impacts in some areas which could mean increased
relief needs where crops were damaged by the late rains but perhaps reduced
needs in the agro-pastoral areas where livestock forms an important part
of the household income.

FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission Report

The FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment Report, which was issued
at the end of December, highlighted the problems faced by Ethiopia because
of the erratic weather in 1997 and estimated 1997 meher cereal and
pulse production at 8,786,000 tons, 25.6 percent less the bumper year of
1996. The poor 1997 belg rains affected land preparation for the
main season while the erratic rains during the main meher season
affected production in many of the traditionally food deficit areas. The
unusual rains in October/November, while extremely important to the recovery
of livestock throughout the drought affected areas, was a mixed blessing
in many of the cropping areas. Some long-cycle crops benefited from the
extension of the rainy season but crops like teff were adversely affected
and in some areas post-harvest losses increased.

In addition to erratic rains the other major factor contributing to
the decrease in production was a 20 percent reduction in fertiliser use
in 1997 and a 9 percent decrease in area planted, down to 10.98 million
hectares. At least in part the decrease in area planted was due to the
poor belg season which hampered land preparation for the main season
crops. A combination of factors seems to have led to the decrease in fertiliser
use in 16 zones of Amhara, Oromia and SNPPR:

* the removal of the fertiliser subsidy in 1997, which resulted in a
roughly 30 percent increase in the cost of fertiliser;

* lack of access to fertiliser because of a rigid application of credit
repayment policies;

* distribution problems and delays in the fertiliser for long-cycle
crops in the more inaccessible areas;

* distorted prices in some areas; and,

* uncertainty on the part of some farmers on the probable return on
their investment because of both the poor rains and low grain prices in
the early part of 1997.

Because of the drop in production, total grains deficit in 1998 was
estimated by the mission at 530,000 tons. Of this total deficit 420,000
tons was listed as the relief requirement for approximately 5.3 million
rural people while it was anticipated that balance of 110,000 tons would
be covered by commercial imports.

Although there is still a difference of opinion between WFP and the
DPPC regarding the relief needs for 1998, there is agreement that at
least 420,000 tons is needed and donors should not delay pledges because
of this difference in numbers.

Other issues noted in the report which will need addressed in the coming
year include much closer harmonisation of assessment methodologies, agreement
on whether the Central Statistical Agency or Ministry of Agriculture will
provide the crop production data and estimates and an agreement of the
overall population of Ethiopia.

FLOODS

The serious flooding that affected lower reaches of the Shebelle, Ganale
and Weib rivers in eastern Ethiopia in October/November abated significantly
during the course of December. However, many thousands of people remain
displaced and unable to return home due to roads that are cut and difficulties
in accessing some areas which are still very marshy.

While a joint Government, Red Cross, DPPC Task Force in Gode has been
successful--despite severe logistical constraints--in co-ordinating the
delivery of food and shelter materials to the affected population, concerns
are now rising over the threat posed by diseases such as malaria and severe
dysentery. Animals are also said to be suffering from afflictions such
as "food rot" arising from prolonged exposure to wet, muddy soil
conditions.

After the French army concluded their ten day helicopter airlift operation
(25 November - 5 December), which gave the initial relief operation out
of Gode a much appreciated boost, two helicopters from the Ethiopia defence
force continued the work of shuttling supplies to communities still cut-off
by the floods. Since the departure of these helicopters on 18 December,
the Task Force has been obliged to seek funding for the hire of local trucks
able to negotiate the very difficult road conditions. By the beginning
of the new year, it was reported that access was again possible by road
from Gode via Kelafo and Mustahil all the way down to Belet Weyne, across
the border in Somalia and an important trading centre for the Shebelle
river axis.

Looking forward to the rehabilitation of the flood-affected area, the
red Cross have concluded an agreement to purchase approximately 60 tons
of a variety of maize seed known as "Kelafo" which is well adapted
to local conditions. This will be distributed to farmers along the Shebelle
river in time for them to take advantage of the current planting season.
At the request of the Somali regional administration, the NGO "Ogaden
Welfare Society" is also working with local officials to draw up a
comprehensive plan for the rehabilitation of the affected areas in Gode,
Afder and Liban zones, prioritising assistance to farmers, road repairs,
health facilities and water supplies.

HEALTH, NUTRITION AND WATER

Iodine deficiency a serious risk: Over 35 million Ethiopians
are at risk of iodine deficiency diseases, recent reports by the Ministry
of Health and the United Nations Children's Fund (UNICEF) disclosed. At
the Ethiopia launching of the 1998 UNICEF Report on The State of the World's
Children which focuses particularly on malnutrition, Dr. Adem Ibrahim,
the Minister of Health, said about 50,000 pre-natal deaths occur annually
due to severe iodine deficiency in pregnant women. Also some 26 persons
in every 100 people in Ethiopia are found to have goitre (swelling of the
thyroid gland in the neck) due to the deficiency. The Minister of Health
also stated that malnutrition rates in Ethiopia are the highest in Africa
and the third highest in the world. Dr. Adem said over 4.5 million Ethiopian
children are underweight and over 6 million are stunted from chronic exposure
to malnutrition. At the Ethiopia launching of the 1998 UNICEF Report on
16 December, the new UNICEF Representative to Ethiopia, Per Engebak, reiterated
the agency's determination to continue working hand-in-hand with the Government
in its nutrition interventions.

Successful polio campaign: As of early December, about
six million children across the country have been vaccinated against polio
through the campaign launched at national level, the Ministry of Health
has stated. According to reports reaching the capital, about 70 per cent
of the 8.6 million children intended to be given polio vaccination have
so far been vaccinated. Campaigns have been particularly successful in
urban areas, while in remote areas, especially in those affected by floods,
it became difficult to apply the programme. The polio vaccination campaign
will continue until the year 2000.

Malaria spreading in arid areas: Some 20 per cent of the
2.5 million people in West Shoa Zone (Oromyia Regional State) are malaria-affected,
the zonal health department disclosed in early December ending a three-day
training on the prevention of malaria. Most of the people affected reside
in arid areas of the zone. While in 1993 the whole of Oromyia Region had
73,800 people infected with malaria the number has risen to 221,200 in
1996/97.

Cholera Task Force for East Africa: The World Health Organisation
(WHO), with the support of the British government, is to set up a task
force in January 1998 in Addis Ababa to help curb the spread of cholera
in East Africa, the Ethiopian Ministry of Health announced on 28 December.
Strategies in the three year action plan to battle the disease include
enhancing procurement and storage of drugs as well as building laboratories
in cholera-hit countries in the region.

Health assessment in Somali Region: WHO, in co-operation
with the Somali Regional Health Bureau, has participated in a joint mission
to Somali Region to assess the health situation and the possible need for
further health interventions following the floods which occurred in October/November.
The WHO consultant focussed primarily on the situation in the Gode area
while a second team from the regional health bureau visited Afdher and
Liban zones along the Weib and Ganale rivers. The WHO report is currently
being finalised and findings will be made available soon.

REFUGEES AND RETURNEE OPERATIONS

Refugees

There was a revalidation of the refugee ration cards between 8 and 16
November 1997 in the Somali refugee camps in eastern Ethiopia. According
to the interim results of the exercise there was an overall reduction of
12 percent in the total refugee population.

A joint WFP/UNHCR/ARRA Food Assessment Mission (JFAM) took place from
24 November to 5 December 1997. The mission recommended inter-alia,
the need for a modified food distribution system which should be able to
weed-out excess ration cards in the system and at the same time ensure
the food reaches those refugees who need assistance most.

658 Southern Sudanese refugees arrived in three western camps (Bonga,
Fugnido and Shirkole) during the month of November. Most of the new arrivals
claimed they were fleeing due to lack of food and ethnic fighting between
the Topoza and Dinka tribes.

Repatriation

During November, consultations and preparatory activities progressed
in readiness for the resumption of voluntary repatriation movements. The
two voluntary repatriation operations currently in-hand--of Ethiopians
returning from Sudan and that of Somali refugees from Ethiopia--were planned
to begin simultaneously on 15 December.

As a follow up to the Tripartite meeting held in Geneva in October between
the Governments of Sudan, Ethiopia and UNHCR, a technical tripartite committee
meeting was held in Humera on 26 November, to discuss and finalise all
operational matters in advance of the movements. In that meeting, agreement
was reached on, among other operational issues, dates for the information
campaign in Sudan, the participants from Ethiopia to the information campaign,
and the cut-off dates for registration as well as for the repatriation
programme itself i.e. 18 February and 31 May 1998 respectively.

In the local media it was reported that the first group of returnees
participating in the resumed operation arrived in Gondar from Sudan at
the end of December. The Organisation for Rehabilitation and Development
in Amhara (ORDA), a partner in the repatriation programme, confirmed that
the 139 Ethiopian refugees in this first group would spend a few days in
a makeshift shelter close to Gondar town before leaving to their places
of origin. At the transit shelter, each returnee is provided with 970 Birr
(approximately US $140) in cash, 150 kgs of food rations (part of a nine
month package of food assistance), plastic sheeting, blankets and various
household utensils. The Government will also allocate land to those returnees
wishing to farm and rent payments to those who choose to live in urban
areas. With funds provided by UNHCR, ORDA expects to assist in organising
the repatriation of close to 20,000 Ethiopian refugees by the time the
current operation end in May. As of 12 January, ARRA confirmed that a total
of 828 refugees had been transported from Kessala in Sudan to the transit
shelter near Gondar.

Statistics (as of 31 November 1997)

WestEast

Bonga 11,867 Hartisheik A 39,948

Fugnido 18,126 Hartisheik B 11,369

Dimma 7,575 Kebribeyah 11,097

Shirkole 17,965 Teferiber 45,665

Derwanaji 39,762

Sub-total 55,533 Camaboker 28,065

Rabasso 16,818

South-east Daror 34,150

Aisha 15,282

Dolo Odo 3,000

Dolo Bay 1,200 Sub-total 242,156

Suftu 1,800

South

Sub-total 6,000

Moyale/Dokisso 8,671

North-eastAddis Ababa

Afar Region 8,000 Urban refugees 756

GRAND TOTAL 321,116

Administrative Map of Ethiopia

DISCLAIMER

The designations employed and the presentation of material in this document
do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever of the UN concerning
the legal status of any country, territory, city or area of its authorities,
or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.