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My money continues to stack on former Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty. A Romney-Pawlenty pair-up would boost Romney’s chance of victory. It’s a dream ticket for evangelicals, and helps the nominee mitigate his biggest weakness: a lack of personal appeal.

But do number twos matter? History says no. Running mates typically win or lose about one percent of votes. Now this could be important if the election is incredibly close, but the trend has actually declined over the last few elections. Sarah Palin, despite all her shenanigans, shaved ½ percent of votes from GOP nominee John McCain’s final 2008 tally.

Pawlenty may not draw a mega herd of voters, but he does have the most potential to win the hearts and minds of kingmakers. Romney needs them his pocket during the general election campaign. Particularly social conservative leaders, some of who continue to be on the fence over Romney’s centrist credentials. Pawlenty has demonstrated his appeal to them through his heartland social conservative agenda.

Pawlenty is also a skilled surrogates. Jeff Zeleny characterized these best in his July 15 New York Times article. He wrote: “[Pawlenty] has emerged as one of the most energetic cheerleaders and forceful defenders of Mr. Romney.”

Of all the running mate potentials, Tim Pawlenty makes the perfect wingman. And if this isn’t enough to justify his selection, Republicans at least owe him for coining the term “Obamacare.”

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