11/13 Update: Some of the 18-49 Network averages originally used in the calculations were incorrect, they have been fixed.

It's getting to be that time of the season when TV networks announce their mid-season January schedules. Don't look for Lipstick Jungle, Pushing Daisies, Eli Stone or Dirty Sexy Money to be on them. Add to those 4 shows *maybe* Life (completely dependent on its future Wednesday results) and You have the 4 or 5 additional shows waiting to get cancelled by mid-season. I think every other show survives past January.

Recapping last weeks show news: 'Til Death was pulled from the Fox lineup. King of the Hill wasn't renewed by Fox, but there are shows enough to last until sometime in the 2009-10 season. Folks wondered how it could be in the "renewal" zone. It's likely that some non-economic event/terms trumped the advertising revenue implied by its ratings.

Lipstick Jungle moved to Friday, predictably crashed, and the smoking ruin will be swept away soon enough. It still remains to be seen how Life's move to Wednesday goes. It's definitely not out of the woods yet. Unfortunately, Nielsen doesn't seem to be breaking down the season to date numbers for the different day/timeslots. I'll do my best to calculate the Wednesday average for Life separately starting next week.

Kath & Kim was given an order filling its first season of shows. Some fans were surprised that could happen, but shouldn't be. It's an *average* scripted show for NBC, and nobody cancels their average shows.

The Indexes for Fox shows continue to be distorted downward by the World Series which has temporarily boosted Fox's 18-49 average, but that will sort itself out over the coming weeks. No need to panic *yet* for Fox shows with scary low numbers.

I seem to write this every week in the comments, so let me include it up top from now on. Except for the shows in the most danger (at the top of the list), plenty can change before the end of the season. The list is presented in a (and has to be, since I cannot predict future ratings) “what would happen if the season ended today” mode. The renewal line last season was 0.92. Could it be 0.86 this season? Possibly. It might also be 0.95. Might it be 0.70? No chance.

While the Renew / Cancel index is most geared toward predicting potential renewal for *next* season, my color coding of the shows are guesses on what might happen this season: Cancellation by January, Cancellation by May, orRenewal Likely for 2009-10.

-
The Renew/Cancel Index is a show's Season To Date adults 18-49 viewership divided by its networks Season to Date average 18-49 viewership. Note: Only shows that have premiered during the 2008-9 broadcast season are on this list.

(1) CW MRC Sunday - The CW has leased its entire Sunday night to Media Rights Capital (MRC). Easy Money and Valentine have been cancelled. It is reported that MRC has the right (obligation?) to program Sunday nights throughout 2008-9 on the CW. What will they do next? Stay tuned.

(2) Friday night - Friday is quickly becoming an 18-49 wasteland, so these shows may be allowed a lower threshold for success than shows on other nights. My grading technique on shows with histories on Friday (only Numb3rs and Ghost Whisperer) is that until they reach their Index values from last season they still are at risk of non-renewal.

(3) New Advs of Old Christine: Perhaps CBS is willing to accept low numbers in its new timeslot indefinitely to build a new "comedy block". Perhaps CBS will return Christine to the warmth and safety of Monday night and cut Worst Week or Gary Unmarried loose. And perhaps not.

How did we come up with our list? We found that last season, the future of a show was nearly directly related to its adults 18-49 average viewers divided by its networks 18-49 average viewers. Many other factors may matter, but they all seemed to boil down to that one number. Because American Idol so skewed Fox's 18-49 average, and would make nearly all Fox shows fall into the "cancel" range, for Fox, I used the last STD 18-49 average *before* Idol. Last season, if a show had better than 92% of its network's average 18-49 viewership (0.92 in our index) it was pretty safe, below that level it was in danger. We're not sure what the magic number will be this season, but I'm very confident that our index will still indicate the shows most likely to be cancelled compared to those less likely to be cancelled.

----------------------------------------------------------------

For unscripted shows, the results from last season were far less cut and dried. A similar relationship did seem to hold between 18-49 averages, but some unscripted shows survived with very low numbers. My conclusion was that some unscripted shows must be so cheap that they are expected to do little more than fill air time and produce little in the way of viewership. However The Closer a show is to the top of the list the more danger it's in of being cancelled or not returning when it's run is completed. Other shows can be judged by their relative position on our list ranked from most likely to be cancelled to least likely to be cancelled.