Ryan has tough 2016 path if Mitt loses

TAMPA, Fla. — Paul Ryan has vaulted to the top of the list of GOP future stars, ahead of Marco Rubio, Chris Christie and Rob Portman as the favorite to be the next Republican presidential candidate if Mitt Romney loses.

But he’ll face tough choices about his next steps if he doesn’t win the vice presidency.

He would return to the House with a higher profile, a better fundraising network and more grass-roots support than any other congressional Republican in modern times. But he would be going back to a political morass: The Republican House is deeply unpopular, every tough vote would be scrutinized and history isn’t on his side: James Garfield, in 1880, was the only man ever elected to the presidency directly from the House.

Ryan is also bumping up against the six-year term limit as Budget Committee chairman, and the job he’s always wanted — chairman of the tax-writing Ways and Means Committee — won’t come free for some time.

Republicans inside and outside Congress have long wanted Ryan to run for a leadership job, and he would certainly have significant support for speaker if Ohio’s John Boehner stepped aside, which his allies expect he’ll do within the next four years. But Ryan has shown no real interest in becoming speaker.

What Ryan would be left with is four years between presidential elections as the highest profile star of a gridlocked and unpopular Congress.

Ryan’s friends say these are all good problems to have.

“Those aren’t tough choices, they’re choices every elected leader dreams about having to make,” a GOP lawmaker close to Ryan said, speaking anonymously to freely speculate about Romney losing. “He’ll be the front-runner for 2016, or if Mitt’s elected, 2020. Either way, he’s the next generation of national leader.”

Rep. Devin Nunes, a California Republican who has long been close with Ryan, doesn’t want to entertain the hypothetical but admits that his friend is already the 2016 front-runner.