There are years in which the data changes enough between early November and early December that a decent-size revision to the winter forecast is warranted. Last year was one of those years. This year? I like the forecast!

This is the original December forecast:

Here’s the new map:

As you can see I am still expecting December to come out in the wash as pretty average. BUT it will be an up-and-down month, perhaps we can divide it into 3 parts.

A cold stretch from today through next Sunday/Monday

A mild stretch from around the 13th to the 20th

A stretch that’s colder to average from the 20th-31st

That’s generally the idea that the latest run of the long-range European modeling has. This animation actually continues into mid-January and the model shows a fair amount of cold (compared to average) in the pattern during the first couple of weeks of the year.

WHAT ABOUT SNOW?

Unless we get a decent-sized storm late in the month, I suspect December is going to be lacking in the snow department. The pattern looks too warm for snow in the middle of the month and while the latter part of the month looks more seasonable, most modeling suggests the primary storm track may be to our south.

European mode precipitation anomalies through Christmas Eve:

I still think a much colder pattern will develop as we get into the new year and I have no changes to the idea that the winter overall will be colder-than-average, despite the average December. Again, check out the original forecast HERE