Greek voters will go to the polls Sunday to render a verdict on the demands of its international creditors. Unfortunately, the outcome might not offer a crystal-clear solution to the long-running crisis.

“If Greeks vote ‘no’ on Sunday, the result likely will be interpreted as a vote for eurozone exit. However, if they vote ‘yes,’ things will be more complicated,” said Pierre Lapointe, head of global strategy and markets at Pavilion, in a note to clients.

Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras shocked creditors and investors Friday, calling a referendum for July 5 on the terms demanded by the country’s creditors in return for extending Greece’s bailout. The Greek government declared a bank holiday until after the referendum to halt deposit flight after the European Central Bank capped emergency liquidity support for the country’s banking system. Global stock markets sold off.

It calls on Greek voters to declare yay or nay on the terms laid out in a June 25 proposal by its fellow eurozone countries, the International Monetary Fund and the European Central Bank. The rub is that the creditors have since withdrawn that proposal in response to Tsipras’s decision to break off talks and pursue the referendum.

What’s more, Tsipras’s government is calling on Greeks to vote “no.” So if the referendum passes, Tsipras could have little choice but to step down.

Consequences of a ‘no’ vote

Officials of the governing party told a number of Greek newspapers that a “no” vote will just be “another tool in the hands of the Greek government in negotiations with its creditors.” These officials made it clear that a negative vote “in no way means an exit from the eurozone.”

That was in contrast to comments by European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker, who said a “no” vote would be the equivalent of saying “no” to Europe.

From a legal perspective, there is no formal process that dictates how a country would leave the eurozone.

But if Greece votes “no” and its creditors refuse to release further aid, the country might find itself with little choice but to head for the door, said Jay Bryson, global economist at Wells Fargo Securities, in a note.

In that scenario, Greece’s late payment would turn into an outright default. And while the Greek government could continue to protect its banking system through capital controls, the country’s economy would collapse even further if citizens remain limited in their ability to withdraw deposits from banks and overseas transfers of cash are prohibited, Bryson said, in a note.

“In reality, Greece would have few options other than to leave the eurozone and reinstate its own currency (the drachma), which would fall sharply in value vis-à-vis the euro,” he said.

Consequences of a ‘yes’ vote

While Greece’s creditors withdrew their offer, officials have made it clear they would welcome a “yes” vote. Juncker pleaded with Greeks to vote in favor. IMF chief Christine Lagarde told the BBC that creditors would be willing to try to come to terms with Greece if there is a resounding vote in favor.

If Greeks do vote “yes”, the Greek government is legally bound by the constitution to accept the proposal by the creditors. There would be no obligation for Tsipras to step down, but observers see little prospect he would be able to continue.

Under the Greek constitution, the center-right New Democracy party—the second-highest vote-getter in the last parliamentary election—would be called upon to attempt to form a coalition.

Moderate members of Tsipras’s Syriza party could then join other moderate parties, including New Democracy, in a “national unity coalition,” which could then reopen talks with Greece’s creditors, wrote economists at Barclays, in a research note. Snap elections would also be a possibility, but probably not until later in the summer, they said.

But even in a best-case scenario, relief may be short-lived, said John Higgins, market economist at Capital Economics, in a note.

“The can will simply be kicked further down the road—in the absence of significant debt relief and strong economic growth, the risk of a Grexit will not go away,” he said.

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