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It is not likely that a tier one Democrat will run against Obama in 2012. But it wouldn’t surprise me if a little known House member or liberal media personality launched a challenge. The question is whether the president’s liberal base is upset enough that an obscure challenger can get 20-25 percent of the vote in a series of primary or caucus states the way Pat Buchanan did in 1992. A liberal version of Buchanan could be damaging to Obama’s reelection prospects because it sucks up media space and delays the president’s focus on his GOP challenger.

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