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Don’t Bet Against the Fed’s Rate Forecast

Minneapolis Federal Reserve President Neel Kashkari and other prominent officials have argued that the central bank should come well short of the 75 basis points of rate hikes anticipated by the median policy maker in the institution’s survey known as dot plots.

But what about the other side of the story? There were four dots above the median rate expectation in the most recent Summary of Economic Projections. Although these hawkish policy makers will make some noise — for instance, Boston Federal Reserve President Eric Rosengren recently reiterated his expectation of more than three rate hikes this year — they probably won’t get much traction in policy debates without even stronger data.