Fears of civil war in South Sudan

Updated
December 18, 2013 19:08:00

Western embassies, the UN and the EU are pulling out all but essential personnel from South Sudan after another night of fighting. The United Nations quotes local sources saying between 500 and 800 people have been killed and up to 800 wounded.

MARK COLVIN: Western embassies, the UN and the EU are pulling out all but essential personnel from South Sudan after more fighting.

The United Nations quotes local sources saying between 400 and 500 people had been killed and up to 800 wounded.

The president, Salva Kiir, has been on television, wearing military fatigues instead of his usual suit, to tell people the situation was under control.

But in reality there are few signs that forces loyal to the sacked vice president, Riek Machar, have ended their rebellion.

Virginia Moncrieff is a former ABC journalist who's been working in South Sudan. She spoke to me from the capital Juba.

VIRGINIA MONCRIEFF: After the president said that the situation was in control, the following day which was yesterday, there was an incredibly vicious and bloody gun battle about 10 kilometres from where I am now, which is based around the presidential compound. And that is also an area where Riek Machar has his house.

MARK COLVIN: We've heard that the casualty toll is up to 500. Do you think that's a credible number?

VIRGINIA MONCRIEFF: Yes, I do. I've spoken to South Sudanese friends. I spoke to a very distressed friend yesterday who had called his brother who is an SPLA (Sudanese People's Liberation Army) soldier to come and get him out of his neighbourhood because he'd just seen his two neighbours dragged out of their house and shot dead. I have no reason to disbelieve his account of events.

Another friend of mine's uncle was shot dead for seemingly no reason than being in the wrong place at the wrong time. So I think that those accounts are probably pretty accurate, Mark.

MARK COLVIN: So the dead are not just armed soldiers and insurgents. There are civilians getting caught in the middle?

VIRGINIA MONCRIEFF: Yes, that's right. The president has said for everyone to continue going about their daily business. Obviously a lot of people are reluctant to do that.

But still, this caught everybody unawares and South Sudan is the kind of place where you live day by day. So you do your marketing every day, you buy your water every day. A lot of people eat on the roadsides. And so a lot of people were caught unprepared so had to go and get supplies for the family and water and what have you.

So even though there was a little cause for alarm - well, more than a little cause for alarm - people were actually having to venture out. So I'm sure people were caught in the crossfire.

MARK COLVIN: And when the president says that everything is under control, you think it's not right?

VIRGINIA MONCRIEFF: Yeah. I would say that's not the case, Mark. And people that I was speaking to yesterday, who have got, you know... diplomats and expat security people were saying that obviously, if last night there was going to be continuing violence, that that looked fairly bad.

It's also got to be said that the US embassy and UK embassy, the EU and many other organisations including the UN are pulling out all of their non-essential staff. At the moment they're just saying, you know, "Get out. We'll help you get out but you have to get out."

MARK COLVIN: So what's likely to happen in the next few days or weeks? It sounds as though everybody seems prepared for it to descend into anarchy or civil war?

VIRGINIA MONCRIEFF: Look, it could go into civil war. The officials and the ministers and the state governors that are talking on behalf of the government are at pains to stress that this is not tribal.

Because, as you probably know, South Sudan has extremely strong tribal influences and is often called a whole bunch of tribes rather than one country. And this has been of great concern that once the sort of tribal "bogeyman" if you like is unleashed, then it is going to get incredibly violent and that there's going to be revenge attacks.

But everybody has been emphasising that this is a military, political coup. It's a naked grab for power by people who were thrown out of the cabinet and that this is not tribal. I would hate to think of the consequences of it spiralling into that situation. It could get extremely nasty.

MARK COLVIN: This is the world's youngest nation. How did it come to this so fast?

VIRGINIA MONCRIEFF: You know, several South Sudanese I've spoken to in the last few days and the friends that I work with here have all said that, you know, that South Sudan hasn't quite gotten off the war footing that it had for...

It was Africa's longest war, as you probably know: the civil war that went on in Sudan which ended up with South Sudan becoming independent in 2011. And so there is a constant war footing.

There is extremely large amounts of young, unemployed men. There are enormous amounts of guns. Guns are just everywhere and, you know, people are suggestible.

A man who was thrown out as vice president went back to his state and, as they do in many African countries all through this continent, started getting a rebel army up. You know, he wasn't going to go quietly.

And when there are people who are suggestible, who are desperate, who are not educated, you know, a cause is a good thing to attach yourself to. And so there's the element of that as well.

MARK COLVIN: Virginia Moncrieff, long-time ABC journalist now working in South Sudan, on the phone from Juba.