Texans Patriots playoffs: Bring on Star Wars, A New Hope

I don’t mean to offend Patriots fans if I refer to your team as the Evil Empire. I am certainly not the first. It begs for the Star Wars treatment from all fanbases. C’mon, it’s the hoodie. And the ruthless way that the Patriots dispatch their opponents as quickly as destroying the planet of Alderaan. The rest of the universe is sick of you and your evil dominant ways.

That might gross you out because it is also a New York Yankees thing, but too bad. I think it fits the Patriots even more than the Yankees.

Gary Kubiak is a much more credible Han Solo. And maybe Wade Phillips the teacherly Obi-Wan Kenobi, last year called, “Obi-Wade Kenobi.” You photoshop people, get on this.

I am not suggesting to re-watch the regular season matchup between the Texans and Patriots because that game was peculiar and causes dark thoughts. Each game is it’s own thing. If you are tempted, save time and watch this:

In my last game preview, I suggested that “For MNF, we just don’t know which episode we’re watching yet.” I’m hoping we at the end of “Star Wars Episode IV: A New Hope”–the original Star Wars which is really the first one but ugh George Lucas stuff. Our early years of the Texans franchise suffered from too much Jar Jar Binks in it. Bygones.

Can the Death Star Be Blown Up?

Of course, it can. You just have to precisely hit it in the thermal exhaust port. This was thought impossible given all the defenses of the Death Star and size of the port, but young, eager, semi-annoying Luke Skywalker wearing his letter jacket was optimistic, enthusing that he used to bullseye womp rats in his T-16. Seriously? Because you can kill womp rats, you think you can destroy the Death Star that blew up Alderaan with a cool sound thingy? Well yeah, because The Force is strong in that one.

At this point, it would be easy to analogize Luke Skywalker to J.J. Watt given that they are both prone to doing things that were thought could never be done and saving stuff and the arm issue, etc. But I think J.J. Watt has more going on than Luke Skywalker, so that might be unfair.

A more pertinent question for a digressive Texans blog: Can the Texans blow up the Patriots Death Star?

“Evacuate in our moment of triumph? I think you overestimate their chances.”

Kerry J. Byrne is the founder of ColdHardFootballFacts.com and has a weekly CHFF radio show on Patriots.com. He is as familiar with the Patriots’ Death Star as master tactician General Jan Dodonna knew Vader’s. General Dodonna was the guy who actually discovered the vulnerability of the Death Star, created the tactics for attacking it, but who wasn’t given a medal along with Luke and Han Solo, or at least at the same time.

In any event, I asked Kerry who answered my pregame Q&A last time, what information could you give me that might give Texans fans a new hope. I will not give him a medal but rather my thanks for his help.

Kerry J. Byrne on Two Reasons for Hope for Texans Fans:

“Many Patriots fans are treating this game as a cakewalk, based upon the December meeting. And obviously some stories in the media have caught the attention of Houston fans and players themselves. By the way, the story that got the most attention in Houston, the one that Arian Foster Tweeted, was written by a guy largely known as a contrarian flame-throwing hack. So that’s his bag.

In any case, Patriots fans or Boston reporters should all know better and to count wins before they happen.

The reality is that there are plenty reasons for Patriots fans to be cautious about this rematch or, put another way, there are plenty of reasons for Texans fans to be optimistic.

Here are two:

First reason for Texans fans to feel optimistic – rematches have not been kind to New England in the postseason.

The Patriots are 16-6 in the playoffs in the Belichick-Brady Era. In fact, with a win over Houston, Tom Brady will surpass Joe Montana for the most postseason wins by any QB in history. Actually, if the Patriots win the Super Bowl, Belichick and Brady will own or share every single postseason or Super Bowl victory record by coach or QB in NFL history. So we’re talking elite level.

But all six losses in that time have come in rematch games. Here’s the list.

Regular season

Postseason

2005

Broncos 28, Patriots 200

Broncos 27, Patriots 13

2006

Colts 27, Patriots 20

Colts 38, Patriots 34

2007

Patriots 38, Giants 35

Giants 17, Patriots 14

2009

Patriots 27, Ravens 21

Ravens 33, Patriots 14

2010

Patriots 45, Jets 3

Jets 28, Patriots 21

2011

Giants 24, Patriots 20

Giants 21, Patriots 17

The 2010 playoff loss to the Jets should be of most interest to Texans fans. Here’s why:

The 2010 Patriots went 14-2 and closed out the season with eight utterly dominating wins, outscoring the opposition by an incredible 309-125. It was one of the greatest stretches of football not just by the Patriots, but by any team in NFL history.

The biggest win of the bunch came in early December on Monday Night Football, when the Patriots embarrassed the N.Y. Jets 45-3 – much like the Patriots embarrassed the Texans on Monday Night Football this season, also in early December.

That 2010 Patriots team was actually quite a bit more impressive than this 2012 Patriots team. Then came the rematch with the Jets in the divisional round. Football fans here in New England and around the country assumed another blow out.

It didn’t quite work out that way.

Gang Green, so miserable in December, was a different team in January. The beat the Patriots, 28-21, ending New England’s dominating regular season with a winless whimper in the postseason. Mark Sanchez had a career day, with 3 TD passes and a 127.3 passer rating, the second best mark of his career.

So a recovery like Houston would need has actually unfolded in recent history.

Second reason for Texans fans to feel optimistic – These teams are actually quite close statistically in what we call “the Mother of All Stats”

Passer Rating Differential is one of the Quality Stats we use at Cold, Hard Football Facts to size up NFL teams. It is the closest thing we have to a perfect stat in football, and maybe in all of sports.

Other than final score, which is all that really matters at the end, no stat does a better job than PRD of separating winners from losers.

Basically, if you post a better passer rating, you’ve won more than 90 percent of NFL games over the past four weeks of action and you won all four games last weekend. That’s pretty damn good.

By the way, 36 percent of all NFL champion since 1940 finished the year No. 1 in Passer Rating Differential. If you looked only at PRD and nothing else, you could name more than 1 in 3 of all NFL champions since the start of World War II. So it’s worked throughout history.

The top of the PRD list is a near perfect representation of the final eight teams still alive today. The only team in the Top 8 not on the list is Washington (No. 6), and they had the misfortune of facing No. 2 Seattle in the wildcard round.

So here’s the good part for Texans fans: in every other game this weekend, one team is clearly superior to the other. The Texans and Patriots are near statistical equals: Houston is +10.6 (including the wildcard game); New England is +10.7.

If Passer Rating Differential has predictive value, Texans-Patriots should be the tightest, most evenly contested battle of the divisional round. They are virtual statistical equals right now – despite the big win by New England back in December.

But we all know, and the Patriots have proven in their history, that beatings at one point in the season do not usually lead to beatings again later in the season or in the postseason. Expect a much closer game this time around.”

I get asked all the time for score and winner predictions, and I’ll reluctantly do them but don’t believe in them. There are many alternative futures for this game that don’t lock in until they happen. The outcomes determined by a mixture of effort, energy, strategy, matchups, injuries and just plain old luck. I can’t say I like the location of this game nor some of the matchups for the Texans, but there are no outcomes to this game that would surprise.

Ultimately, I’m still where I was at before the Bengals playoff game and all games. I know what the chances are. They are much better than trying the avoid the Death Star’s defenses, Darth Vader’s TIE fighter and shooting into a small thermal exhaust port without the aid of a computer. So there’s that.

Numbers and opinions and matchups aside, the best part of fandom involves Believe It! or The Force. The energy that comes from unreservedly supporting your team and wanting the best for them and wanting to see them at their best. I would like this win for so many people, but in particular Andre Johnson because he didn’t abandon Houston when he could have.