How to bet the 2017 AFC East

byJohn Ewing

The AFC East has belonged to the Patriots during the Tom Brady and Bill Belichick era. New England is down Pro Bowl receiver Julian Edelman but this is arguably the team’s best roster since the 2007 squad that started the year 16-0. The reigning champs are the favorites to win everything in 2017 and that starts with the division. Here is how to bet the 2017 AFC East.

Our projections are based on 10,000 simulations of the 2017 NFL season using team statistics and adjusting for Strength of Schedule.

Division Odds

It’s not if but when the Patriots will clinch the division. Tom Terrific has helped New England win the AFC East eight straight years and 13 of the last 14. The lone exception was when he tore his ACL in 2008. Brady would likely need to miss the season again for the Dolphins, Bills or Jets to have a chance.

No team is more likely to win its division than the Pats. With a 95.9% chance of winning there is value on New England -1400.

Team

Win Division

Odds (BetOnline)

Buffalo Bills

1.9%

+1600

Miami Dolphins

2.0%

+900

New England Patriots

95.9%

-1400

New York Jets

0.2%

+10000

Season Win Total

If I told you only one team was projected to go OVER its season win total you’d probably guess it was the Patriots but that’s not the case. Believe it or not but the Jets OVER 4 (+152) has great value. This is a great contrarian bet, hence the value.

The Bills and Dolphins each are greater than 60% likely to go UNDER their win total and there is value placing a bet. The only team not worth placing a win total bet on is New England. The Patriots have won 12 or more games seven straight years.

Team

Over

Under

Over%

Under%

Buffalo Bills

6.5 (+106)

6.5 (-128)

32.2

67.8

Miami Dolphins

7.5 (+112)

7.5 (-135)

34.3

65.7

New England Patriots

12.5 (-110)

12.5 (-133)

46.6

53.4

New York Jets

4 (+152)

4 (-187)

68.4

31.6

Make the Playoffs

New England is the definition of a lock to make the playoffs (-1500). The Patriots are 98.2% likely to reach the postseason once again and there is value to do so.

Jay Cutler is in South Beach in hopes of getting Miami back to the playoffs. Yet, after a 10-win season there are a number of underlying statistics that point to regression for the Fins in 2017. There is nearly a 90% chance the Dolphins don’t make the playoffs.

Team

Playoff Probabilities

Make Playoffs

Miss Playoffs

Buffalo Bills

12.3%

+520

-740

Miami Dolphins

13.7%

+375

-470

New England Patriots

98.2%

-1500

+1000

New York Jets

2.1%

+1900

-3800

Win the Super Bowl

The Pats have won two of the last three Lombardi Trophy’s and are +385 favorites to repeat. New England is 32.8% likely to win the Super Bowl, better than the Packers, Seahawks and Steelers – teams with the next best betting odds – combined. Even getting less than 4-to-1 odds there is value betting Brady to bring another ring to Foxborough.