Monday, April 21, 2014

Here is our continuation to yesterday's article that discussed final power & performance ratings by team. In this 2nd part we are going to break down each of the first round series using our metrics & data to try and give you that critical edge when you commence your handicapping process.

First let’s dissect the Western Conference:

ACTUAL

REGRESS

VARIANCE

WEST

Wins

Wins

Wins

San Antonio

62.0

56.8

5.2

Oklahoma City

59.0

54.3

4.7

L.A. Clippers

57.0

59.4

(2.4)

Houston

54.0

48.4

5.6

Portland

54.0

43.5

10.5

Golden State

51.0

55.0

(4.0)

Memphis

50.0

48.2

1.8

Dallas

49.0

51.4

(2.4)

First Round matchups

#1 San Antonio vs.
#8 Dallas: according to this matrix (and many of the other metrics
& statistics throughout this analysis also support this thought) Dallas and
San Antonio only had a 5.4 game difference in projected record (Spurs were 2nd
in NBA while Dallas was 6th in projected record) – significantly
less than the actual 13 games difference their records indicate.With the Spurs, similar to the Heat, we do
have to mentally/qualitatively adjust their statistical performance based on
the fact they often rest players during the season, and typically start each
year off slower than others teams since they are an aging team and winning
another championship is of the utmost importance to their franchise.Despite this smaller than expected variance
the Spurs are a MUCH better team defensively, especially EFG% as they check in
at #2 in the NBA while the Mavericks are just #24.Unless Dallas significantly ups their
defensive performance – which would lead to exposing some of the weaknesses of
the Spurs like offensive rebounding – San Antonio should not have much of a
problem disposing of Dallas – but the opening lines on these games might be a
touch high even though the Spurs are much like the Patriots in the NFL – seems
a good idea to either play on them or pass; fading them is very tough.

#2 Oklahoma City
vs. #7 Memphis: the Grizzlies have been one of the hottest teams in the
NBA since the calendar turned to 2014, and did beat the Thunder in last year’s
Western Conference semifinal round – but do they have a decent shot at pulling
of the upset in back to back years?Remember Russell Westbrook was injured in the first round of the 2013
playoffs and did not play in these teams meeting last May.Both teams overachieved record wise compared
to what their regression based record suggested – especially the Thunder
checking in at +4.7 despite Westbrook missing extended action this winter.Both of these teams are strong defensively
checking in at 5th & 8th respectively – but there is
a big discrepancy between offensive EFG% with OKC having the edge as the 6th
best in the league vs. Memphis rating 18th.Since Memphis is one of the worst teams in
the league at getting to the FT line, and because the Thunder have revenge on
their minds in this series, I do not see many ways the Grizzlies take this
series deep despite their recent hot run – and despite what some media analysts
believe.They just are not efficient
enough offensively, and OKC’s defense is underrated.

#3 LA Clippers vs.
#6 Golden State: this heated rivalry features a pair of underachieving
teams as our model projected 59.4 wins for the Clippers (57 actual) & 55.0
wins for the Warriors (51 actual) which would have checked them in at 1st
and 4th in the entire NBA respectively.Many certainly do not realize how solid the
Warriors play defense as they are ranked 3rd in the NBA in EFG% defensively,
while the Clippers are also a solid 5th.Both offenses also have top 8 EFG%’s,
however, their defense in that metric is better than their offense – suggesting
unders may be solid plays here especially with the higher totals posted &
the public generally backing the over between these two teams.The biggest edge between these teams and the
possible deciding factor may be the frequency each team reaches the FT line:
LAC are 2nd in the league while GS is a miserable 28th –
which puts more pressure on the Warriors shooting, which often isn’t a good
thing especially how perimeter based they are.In Game One LA shot 10 more FT’s (and almost hit that well known mark of
making more FT’s than your opponent attempts 23 to 25 yesterday) but still took
the loss.It’s likely the lines on these
games are too inflated on the Clippers side – look for a closely contested
series between two of the better teams in the NBA.

#4 Houston vs. #5
Portland: this is a meeting between the two most overachieving clubs in
the Western Conference as the 4th seeded Rockets won 5.6 more games
than my model suggests & the 5th seeded Blazers won an
incredible 10.5 more games than their statistical performance suggested!Truly amazing how many “extra” games these
teams managed to win despite numerous injuries during the season to key players
like Dwight Howard & Lamarcus Aldridge.These teams are very identical in many of the statistical areas I track
and use for my ratings, but like many of the matchups discussed above one team
has the significant edge offensively – and that is Houston.Not only is Houston 3rd in
offensive EFG% they also get to the line the most of any team in the league –
which gives them flexibility in scoring points if they are having an off night
from the field.Their only weakness is
turnovers where they rate worst in the NBA – but unfortunately for Portland
they rate worst in the NBA defensively in forcing turnovers – so this seems to
be a bad matchup for the Blazers.Considering how poor Portland plays in the playoffs annually, how they
should have been closer to a .500 team vs. winning 50+, and how the statistics
matchup between these two squads, I see a significant edge for the Rockets here
– and barring injuries do not see many scenarios where they would lose this
series.

Now let’s take a look at the Eastern Conference:

ACTUAL

REGRESS

VARIANCE

EAST

Wins

Wins

Wins

Indiana

56.0

47.1

8.9

Miami

54.0

56.4

(2.4)

Toronto

48.0

49.6

(1.6)

Chicago

48.0

42.3

5.7

Washington

44.0

48.7

(4.7)

Brooklyn

44.0

40.4

3.6

Charlotte

43.0

42.4

0.6

Atlanta

38.0

36.2

1.8

First Round Matchups

#1 Indiana vs. #8
Atlanta: right off the bat the number that sticks out in the entire
Eastern Conference is the Pacers winning 8.9 more games than my model suggests
their statistics say they earned – big red flag there, as if they needed
another big red flag against them with how poor they have played down the
stretch.According to the regression
model the Pacers were the 4th best team in the East, and their play
over their last 30 games or so certainly supports that thesis.The only positive for the Pacers is they are
facing a Hawks team that posted a terrible 38-44 regular season mark, which
should have been 36-46 according to my model – one of the worst team’s record
wise to ever reach the playoffs.This
matchup will likely come down to can the Hawks score consistently enough
against the #1 EFG% defense in the NBA?The Pacers are solid across the board defensively – which may be enough
to get them past the Hawks, but any further there will be significant
resistance.Expect a lot of low scoring
games between these squads in a series that is likely to go deeper and be more
competitive than any Pacers fan thought was possible earlier this season.

#2 Miami vs. #7
Charlotte: Miami was just 2.4 wins short of their expected total, while
the Bobcats were right on their number – keep in mind like the Spurs above the
Heat routinely sat players during the season to give them rest as their aging
stars look to win their third straight championship.Charlotte is one of the worst shooting teams
in the NBA amongst playoff teams, while Miami is the best – having such
extremes in such a critical statistic doesn’t bode well the for the
Bobcats.And that is really the
determining factor in this series – not only do the Heat own the Bobcats since
Lebron James came to South Beach, but they also have all the playoff experience
and can score much easier than the Bobcats can.I have been riding the Charlotte train a lot this season, and would have
given them a shot against any other team in the Eastern Conference besides
Miami.The Heat, again like the Spurs,
know how valuable time off can be, so look for them to make short work of
Charlotte – 5 games max.

#3 Toronto vs. #6
Brooklyn: in actuality there is only a 4 win difference between these
two squads, but my regression model suggests their records were closer to 10
games difference according to their performance in my statistical package.Like many of the other aging, veteran teams
discussed above, the Nets certainly lost a TON of starter games due to injury
or rest – which should be accounted for – as should their dearth of playoff
experience, especially when compared to the Raptors.That certainly slims the record margin down a
lot – but statistically speaking the Raptors played better this season, and
were another team we cashed with early & often this NBA year.Almost the entire variance between these two
teams projected wins was driven by their rebounding numbers – with the Raptors
enjoying a clear edge, especially since the Nets lost Lopez for the season due
to injury.Despite that statistical edge
for the Raptors they will have to up their game more than that if they hope to
beat this veteran squad looking to make a deep run in the playoffs.Unless Toronto absolutely dominates the
glass, especially on the offensive end – which they didn’t accomplish in Game
One leading to a loss – Brooklyn is definitely the favorite here.

#4 Chicago vs. #5
Washington: this matchup features teams that are almost a mirror image
of each other according to the projected wins model – Chicago won 5.7 more
games than projected (48 vs. 42.3) while Washington won 4.7 fewer games than
projected (44 vs. 48.7) – so what does that mean?Well I think most have recognized the Bulls
have certainly overachieved this season – to my eye they struggled right after
losing Rose for the 2nd straight season because of the sheer shock
of another injury to their star player – but once they got over that, and
adjusted their playing style, they excelled.Washington on the other hand surprisingly won 44 games this season, and
probably to the surprise of many people should have won closer to 49 according
to my model – which was actually a higher projection than Indiana.Many of the stats I track in my model are
very close between these teams as their net EFG% is almost 0.00 for both teams
(although Washington shoots a higher % they also allow a higher %), but the
biggest difference is turnovers.Washington, with John Wall has a big edge at the PG spot and taking care
of the basketball compared to the Derrick Rose-less Bulls.This series will likely go deep and come down
to can Chicago take care of the basketball AND get to the FT line enough to
support their weakness from the field.

Similar to my NFL Performance Ratings these break each team
down using the metrics & statistics I have tested and found to be of the
highest correlation to team success.One
aspect to keep in mind is the ratings above are best when lower compared to NFL
ratings that are best when higher.We
can use these ratings numerous ways, identifying teams that may be over or
under valued, or also for total players identifying which matchups could
produce more or less points.Last key
item of note is these ratings weight each stat equally, where below in my
projected wins & power ratings they are properly weighted to their impact
based on statistical testing.Using an
equal weight for each statistic can add a lot of value to your handicapping
efforts when properly applied.

For this final version let’s add a matrix that shows where
each team ranked in the above non-weighted performance ratings throughout
different points of the season:

ASB

19-Dec

26-Dec

2-Jan

9-Jan

15-Jan

23-Jan

27-Jan

2-Feb

9-Feb

13-Feb

5-Mar

20-Mar

FINAL

Atlanta

12

12

9

16

15

10

14

15

17

17

17

21

20

Boston

25

26

26

27

28

27

27

27

27

26

26

26

26

Brooklyn

23

24

24

21

24

22

22

22

22

22

23

23

25

Charlotte

7

5

9

9

10

9

10

10

11

12

10

11

9

Chicago

16

15

11

13

10

12

13

11

10

8

9

11

10

Cleveland

26

22

22

20

21

19

18

20

21

21

15

13

15

Dallas

21

20

20

24

22

23

23

20

20

18

22

20

18

Denver

10

12

17

10

9

13

11

14

14

15

19

18

19

Detroit

13

10

16

22

19

16

20

18

15

13

16

16

22

Golden State

18

19

12

13

12

13

15

12

12

10

10

8

11

Houston

9

9

8

7

8

7

7

6

4

6

3

5

5

Indiana

1

1

2

2

2

3

5

7

7

7

6

8

12

LA Clippers

8

7

4

5

6

6

5

5

5

5

3

2

3

LA Lakers

27

27

28

26

26

26

26

26

26

26

28

27

27

Memphis

19

18

13

11

12

10

9

9

9

10

12

8

7

Miami

16

11

14

13

18

19

17

19

22

22

19

19

17

Milwaukee

29

29

29

30

30

30

30

30

30

29

29

29

29

Minnesota

2

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

New Orleans

11

17

15

19

19

21

18

17

17

16

21

22

21

New York

22

24

25

24

23

25

24

24

24

24

25

24

23

Okla City

4

3

7

5

3

4

4

2

3

4

2

3

2

Orlando

25

23

23

23

25

24

25

25

25

25

24

24

24

Philadelphia

28

27

27

28

27

28

29

29

29

30

30

30

30

Phoenix

20

20

18

18

16

13

12

13

13

14

13

13

12

Portland

7

6

5

4

3

4

3

4

2

2

5

3

3

Sacramento

14

12

18

11

12

17

21

23

19

20

18

13

16

San Antonio

7

3

6

8

7

8

8

8

8

9

8

6

6

Toronto

4

8

3

3

3

2

2

2

5

2

6

6

8

Utah

30

30

30

29

29

29

28

28

28

28

27

28

28

Washington

17

15

21

16

17

18

16

16

15

18

13

16

14

Next up let’s take a closer look at the above matrices, and
provide some color behind a few teams that “stand out” for seemingly rating
higher or lower than their final record.

Minnesota:
the Timberwolves have been ranked #1 for 12 of the 13 editions we published
including each of the last 12 since Christmas.Why did a mere 40-42 team rate so highly?The answer is very simple – Minnesota was
very solid in all categories that comprise this analysis besides the biggest
one on each side of the ball: Effective FG%.The Wolves were ranked 21st offensively & 27th
defensively in that area, which is the most heavily weighted statistic when
using linear regression as I do below.

Portland &
Houston: these teams are matching up in the opening round of the
Western Conference playoffs, and were ranked tied for 3rd & 5th
respectively in these ratings – very solid obviously.Both teams had Top 4 offenses and mid ranked
defenses – look for a lot of points, with turnovers (especially for Houston
both sides of the floor) & offensive rebounding being key drivers to the
winner of this series.

Western
Conference: of the 15 teams in the conference 7 rated #1 thru #7 here,
and just 2 rated amongst the bottom 9 teams – shows how strong that conference
is.

Toronto, Charlotte
& Chicago: here is a trio of teams we made a lot of cash backing
this season, and they check in at #8, #9 & #10 overall – the top 3 teams in
the Eastern Conference.Although they
are the top 3 teams in the conference using the equally weighted method they
slip in the linear weighted model because of average to poor EFG%, especially
offensively.These teams, especially the
latter two, are best known for their work on the defensive end – which is where
they will no question need to excel in order to advance in the playoffs.

Brooklyn:
the Nets check in at #25, easily the lowest rated team in the playoffs this
season – even the lowly Hawks are ranked #20!What does it all mean?Brooklyn
is very much a middle of the road team AT BEST when using full regular season
statistics as even their EFG% numbers are middle of the pack – and they frankly
do not excel in any one area besides possibly defensive pressure/forcing
turnovers (which was assisted by the Livingston addition to the starting lineup
in early calendar year 2014) and getting to the FT line offensively – both
areas they leveraged to pick up a win in Toronto in Game One.

Next let’s dive into the Power Ratings which use the
Performance Rankings as a base:

HOME

ROAD

Power Rating

Power Rating

L.A. Clippers

117.0

113.0

San Antonio

116.2

112.7

Miami

116.0

112.5

Golden State

115.5

112.5

Oklahoma City

116.2

112.2

Dallas

114.7

111.7

Toronto

114.3

111.3

Phoenix

114.2

111.2

Washington

113.3

110.8

Houston

114.5

110.5

Memphis

113.1

110.1

Indiana

113.7

109.7

Minnesota

112.2

109.7

New York

111.6

109.6

Portland

112.7

109.2

Charlotte

111.9

108.9

Chicago

111.8

108.8

Brooklyn

110.9

107.9

New Orleans

110.3

107.8

Detroit

109.5

107.5

Atlanta

109.6

107.1

Denver

109.4

106.9

Cleveland

108.8

106.8

Sacramento

108.6

106.6

Boston

108.5

106.5

Orlando

106.5

104.5

L.A. Lakers

105.6

103.6

Utah

105.4

103.4

Milwaukee

105.2

103.2

Philadelphia

102.0

100.0

These are actually Power Ratings that can be used when
handicapping nightly matchups.

Keep in mind however that when the playoffs commence ratings
become more hyper-sensitive to variance in performance, and are adjusted
slightly from what you see above.But
these can still be used as a solid estimate – let’s take a look at projected
lines for Game One of each series versus the actual line posted in Vegas:

[#1] PACERS -6.5
[#8] hawksVegas line: -8Variance: 1.5 points

[#2] HEAT -7
[#7] bobcatsVegas line: -9.5Variance: 2.5 points

[#3] RAPTORS -6.5 [#6] netsVegas
line: -3.5Variance: (3.0)
points

[#4] BULLS -1 [#5] wizardsVegas line: -4.5Variance: 3.5 points

[#1] SPURS-4.5[#8] mavericksVegas line: -9.5Variance:
5.0 points

[#2] THUNDER-6[#7] grizzliesVegas line: -8Variance: 2.0 points

[#3] CLIPPERS-4.5[#6] warriorsVegas line: -7.5Variance: 3.0 points

[#4] ROCKETS -5.5[#5] blazersVegas line: -5Variance: (0.5) points

What initially really jumps off the page is the fact 6 of the 8 lines (and another is just 0.5 points below & may still move on Sunday to positive territory) are HIGHER on the favorite in Vegas compared to my ratings - which makes perfect sense since Vegas routinely adjusts odds on favorites up based on the public typically backing the favorites. For Saturday’s games my ratings suggested plays on Hawks,
Raptors, Grizzlies & Warriors – 3 of 4 underdogs; the pair of 3pt variances
split while the two smaller variance plays also split.However, remember, line value is only one
small piece of the handicapping puzzle – and unlike the regular season there
are small adjustments made to these ratings in the playoffs designed to further
accentuate the performance fluctuation by team.

Lastly let’s take a look at wins by team in three critical
buckets: ATS Win %, Final Wins, Regression Wins.Also we will examine the variance between
actual & regression wins:

ATS WIN %

FINAL ACTUAL WINS

REGRESS WINS

ACTUAL - REGRESS WINS

Wins

RANK

Wins

RANK

Wins

RANK

Wins

RANK

L.A. Clippers

0.568

4

57.0

3

59.4

1

(2.4)

21

San Antonio

0.549

5

62.0

1

56.8

2

5.2

9

Miami

0.463

24

54.0

5

56.4

3

(2.4)

20

Golden State

0.519

10

51.0

8

55.0

4

(4.0)

15

Oklahoma City

0.538

6

59.0

2

54.3

5

4.7

11

Dallas

0.537

7

49.0

10

51.4

6

(2.4)

22

Toronto

0.582

3

48.0

11

49.6

7

(1.6)

25

Phoenix

0.642

1

48.0

11

49.0

8

(1.0)

27

Washington

0.531

9

44.0

14

48.7

9

(4.7)

12

Houston

0.500

13

54.0

5

48.4

10

5.6

6

Memphis

0.456

25

50.0

9

48.2

11

1.8

24

Indiana

0.469

20

56.0

4

47.1

12

8.9

2

Minnesota

0.476

18

40.0

17

45.4

13

(5.4)

7

New York

0.463

23

37.0

19

43.9

14

(6.9)

4

Portland

0.537

7

54.0

5

43.5

15

10.5

1

Charlotte

0.595

2

43.0

16

42.4

16

0.6

28

Chicago

0.506

12

48.0

11

42.3

17

5.7

5

Brooklyn

0.512

11

44.0

14

40.4

18

3.6

17

New Orleans

0.487

17

34.0

21

37.7

19

(3.7)

16

Detroit

0.432

29

29.0

23

37.6

20

(8.6)

3

Atlanta

0.469

20

38.0

18

36.2

21

1.8

23

Denver

0.476

18

36.0

20

35.4

22

0.6

29

Cleveland

0.488

15

33.0

22

34.3

23

(1.3)

26

Sacramento

0.468

22

28.0

24

30.7

24

(2.7)

19

Boston

0.488

16

25.0

26

28.1

25

(3.1)

18

Orlando

0.430

30

23.0

28

27.5

26

(4.5)

14

L.A. Lakers

0.500

13

27.0

25

21.8

27

5.2

10

Utah

0.434

28

25.0

26

20.4

28

4.6

13

Milwaukee

0.444

26

15.0

30

20.3

29

(5.3)

8

Philadelphia

0.439

27

19.0

29

19.5

30

(0.5)

30

The first column ATS Win % is not only impacted by actual
team performance but also certainly by other factors that are tough to measure
but we know they exist such as expectations & public teams.Team expectations at the beginning of the
season certainly plays a critical role in ATS performance because perceived
“good” teams people will continually wait on if they start slow (New York),
while perceived “bad” teams people will continually wait and/or bet on to
flounder after a hot start which sometimes doesn’t occur (Phoenix).We also see teams such as Miami who checks in
at #24 in ATS performance largely driven by the fact they are more actively
managing the regular season grind compared to most other teams, with a clear
eye on winning another championship.Understanding these largely unmeasurable variables is absolutely
critical to having success betting on the NBA because the season is such a long
grind, and emotional levels, lineups, injuries, motivation and other human
behaviors are key in the NBA compared to say the NFL where every team plays
once per week and is typically motivated equally.

Perhaps the most critical piece of this final NBA analysis
entry of the season is the far right column.As a reminder let’s define regression wins: this figure represents how
many games a team is projected to win based on their performance in specific
statistical categories I have defined (with help from many other books &
intelligent NBA executives) as having the greatest impact on winning games,
properly weighted using linear regression.The statistics & weights will remain for my eyes only as that is
proprietary, but we can discuss the results in some detail that will provide
insight into my process to the astute reader.One item of note is the rank column for the actual minus regression wins
metric uses absolute values of the variances to better represent which teams
were furthest or closest to actual wins.Based on this metric let’s take a closer look at the playoff teams from
each conference, and possibly identify teams that are over or under valued
based on their true statistical performance this season.In total of the 16 playoff teams 10 posted a
record better than their true performance suggested (5 in each conference) –
but who has the biggest variances?

The SportsBoss is a handicapping "broker" that offers NFL, NBA, NCAA football, NCAA basketball, NHL and MLB picks. The Sports Boss leverages his background which includes both a BS and MBA in Finance to build robust, analytical models which aid in predicting outcomes of games in every sport.