Astros Remain In Contact With A’s Regarding Sonny Gray

The Astros have been known to be seeking rotation upgrades for much of the offseason, and while the team’s pursuit of White Sox lefty Jose Quintanahasn’t gained much traction, FOX’s Ken Rosenthal tweets that Houston as also maintained contact with the Athletics regarding right-hander Sonny Gray.

The 27-year-old Gray is a season removed from his status as a burgeoning young ace. The 2013-15 campaigns saw the former Vanderbilt standout and first-round pick pitch to a pristine 2.88 ERA with 7.7 K/9, 2.8 BB/9 and a 54.2 percent ground-ball rate in 491 innings. Gray topped 200 innings in both 2014 and 2015, his age-24 and age-25 seasons, and finished third in AL Cy Young balloting during that ’15 campaign.

Impressive as that stretch was, a disastrous 2016 campaign has made Gray a tough asset to value. Gray had two separate DL stints — one for a right trapezius strain and one for a strained right forearm — in 2016 and was ultimately limited to 117 innings. The results in that shortened sample were hardly encouraging, either, as Gray’s ERA soared to 5.69 while his strikeout rate dipped slightly, and his BB/9 rate rose to 3.2 (up from 2.6 a year prior). Despite throwing just 56 percent of the innings he totaled in 2015, Gray allowed more home runs in 2016, setting a new career-worst with 18.

Suffice it to say, red flags abound when looking at Gray’s 2016 campaign. Yet, if that season is chalked up largely to injury and a team believes the issues won’t linger into future seasons, then Gray again becomes a wildly appealing asset. He’s controlled via arbitration for the next three seasons, and his 2016 struggles actually suppressed his salary in his first trip through the arbitration process. Gray agreed to terms with the A’s on a one-year deal worth $3.575MM last Friday, so he’d be affordable for any team and bring legitimate front-of-the-rotation upside to his new environs.

The problem, of course, is that it’s doubtful any team will overlook Gray’s calamitous 2016 season and assume he’ll experience a full rebound in 2017 and beyond. Those that have contacted the Athletics about Gray have likely done so in an effort to buy low on the talented righty, but there’s little incentive for Oakland to sell low on him. Were Gray one year away from free agency, perhaps Oakland would feel more compelled to take the best offer it received, but with another three years of club control remaining, the A’s can afford to wait for Gray to restore some value. Even if Gray is ultimately traded before he reaches free agency, the A’s could get plenty of value for him this summer, next offseason or even two offseasons from now, should his performance trend back upward.

That the Astros play in the same division as the A’s only further complicates the matter. Teams are often loath to trade anyone, especially one of the faces of their franchise, to a division rival, and that could come into play here. Oakland and Houston, of course, have matched up on a number of deals in the past. Houston GM Jeff Luhnow and Oakland president of baseball ops Billy Beane have twice lined up on trades sending Jed Lowrie from Houston to Oakland, and the Astros also acquired southpaw Scott Kazmir from the A’s in exchange for prospects Jacob Nottingham and Daniel Mengden back in July 2015 (as can be seen in MLBTR’s Transaction Tracker).

Comments

no way that the a’s trade gray to the astros , I still see sonny gray in a cubs uniform one day, I also saw the astros were looking at archer but the rays wanted bregman which I don’t blame them to ask

I still feel the Rockies could make a play for Quintana with some combo or Dahl/Blackmon and prospects like Rodgers going back…maybe even Rox getting Robertson back in the deal…as for Gray he is going to stay put for now

The White Sox might line up with the Rockies but not for Charlie Blackmon. He’s older and has far less control than what a similar player in Adam Eaton held before being dealt to the Nationals last month. David Dahl would be a possibility as a 22-year old left-handed bat who won’t even be arbitration eligible until 2020. Blackmon would have been a great target last offseason as a CF option when the White Sox were still in re-load mode and shifted Eaton to RF.

Rockies #1 prospect Brendan Rodgers (MLB.com’s #6 overall) would be the White Sox top target despite the fact that he plays SS/2B, two positions the organization actually has some immediate depth at with Tim Anderson and Yoan Moncada. The front office is still prioritizing talent above all else at this early stage of their rebuild.

There’s also no guarantee that Anderson and Moncada stay at their current positions anyway. Anderson looks like a potentially solid SS right now but could also be moved to 2B or CF down the road. Moncada will start the 2017 season at 2B in AAA Charlotte but may eventually profile better at 3B or as a corner OF as he physically matures. Rodgers is said to possess the tools to play SS in the big leagues with his soft hands and “instincts” but he may ultimately wind up at 2B with a just slightly above average arm and range. He is also projected to have the necessary power to play 3B at the MLB level..

Rodgers would be priority #1 for the White Sox. They’d probably be happy to substitute Dahl for another top tier prospect from among RHP’s Jeff Hoffman and Riley Pint.

With the Rockies need for pitching, they would be reluctant to trade either, especially Hoffman who is knocking on the Rockies rotation door as an advanced college pitching arm who made his MLB debut last August. But the White Sox do love college pitchers and were high on Hoffman prior to the 2014 draft when they selected LHP Carlos Rodon six spots ahead of him. Pint might be more realistic as a top high school arm that has an ETA of 2019 or 2020.

Beyond these two pitchers, Rodgers and Dahl, I’m not seeing a whole lot that would intrigue the White Sox in a trade for “Q” with the exception of Rockies #5 prospect German Marquez who is in the same boat as Hoffman, competing for a job in the 2017 Colorado rotation. Perhaps 3B/1B prospect Ryan McMahon would hold some appeal. Gotta love another McMahon having a chance to star in Chicago some day! lol

No. I do see a James Shields/Wil Myers type deal happening with Colorado though….they cant develop every shred of pitching they need at elevation. Id rather have a higher K rate or GB% than Quintana though in Denver.

In addition to Sonny Gray, perhaps David Price could then persuade Dave Dombrowski to trade for fellow Vanderbilt alumni like Carson Fulmer and Walker Buehler to fill out a future Red Sox rotation. Who knows, maybe he’ll even lobby for former Commodore Pedro Alvarez to fill David Ortiz’ big shoes as their next DH? lol

when Oakland has made trades within their division it’s usually when Oakland is out of the playoffs and the team is offering something decent in return. The A’s won’t be trading Gray any time before the All-star break unless it’s too good of an offer to pass imo.

I’m not counting on us making the playoffs in 2017 either. I’m super-excited for 2018 though when we start to see all these youngsters converge on Oakland to form what’s going to be our next core of franchise players.

Sounds more like a ploy by the Astros to try and get the White Sox to accept their current offer for Jose Quintana.

What are the odds that the A’s would trade Gray now when he is not at his maximum value following an unproductive/injury riddled season and that the trading partner would be a divisional foe in Houston?

Imo, the Pirates have a better chance to compete for the postseason, likely one of the wild card spots by making a deal for Quintana now. If they don’t, their playoff chances would be lessened as the deadline approaches with no “Q” on board…even with Andrew McCutchen still on their roster. In my mind, it’s more likely that “Cutch” gets dealt this summer in that event.

I just don’t see the Pirates as a serious contender with their present roster. If they are still in the running for a wild card this summer, I view them as a less likely bet trying to pry “Q” from the White Sox at the deadline with more obvious contenders (Dodgers, Cubs, Astros) possibly being in the mix, along with other teams that may be in the same “boat” as the Pirates (Rangers, Yankees, Braves).

Bottom line: If you don’t think the Pirates are going to contend with or without Quintana then they should just forget about him altogether. Apparently, the Pittsburgh front office believes they will or they wouldn’t be one of the current favorites to land him right now.

BUT, from a business perspective, the argument can be made to trade for Quintana. Their local TV deal is up in 2 years. The ratings have been very very good since 2013. But if they flounder for the next two years, it could cost them tens of millions of dollars when they go to negotiate the next deal.

So, from a business perspective, it might be better for the Pirates to be a pretender for the next few years than an actual contender in 2020.

Reportedly, Alex Bregman was off the table in the Chris Sale trade discussions and also with those currently involving Jose Quintana. If those rumors are accurate, the A’s would have no chance of landing such an elite talent for a pitcher with less accomplishment and certainty like Sonny Gray.

I would love to see Gray in a Dodger Uniform. Would a package surrounding DeLeon, Calhoun, Alex Wood and another 2ND tier prospect get it done? I know it’s a lot to give up but Gray Instantly becomes their #2 behind Kershaw. Kersh, Gray and Hill would be tough to beat in the playoffs

It seems the current Dodgers front office values their prospects too much for such a deal to happen. Their farm system is loaded but they seem more intent on signing free agents, trying to trade veterans off of their MLB roster and accumulate more Cubans than Serie Nacional. lol

Well yeah they made it clear they were going to spend big up front to let their guys develop then watch all the big contracts fall off the books and start the flow of home grown talent. In essence the same model the Cubs enacted although the Dodgers went about it a little differently in terms of positional philosophy. Then again they had to because they didn’t draft as high.