A predominantly one-topic blog: how is it that the most imminent and lethal implication for humankind - the fact that the doctrine of "Mutually Assured Destruction" will not work with Iran - is not being discussed in our media? Until it is recognized that MAD is dead, the Iranian threat will be treated as a threat only to Israel and not as the global threat which it in fact is.
A blog by Mladen Andrijasevic

Monday, July 25, 2016

A civilization that believes in nothing
will ultimately submit to anything.

La Promenade des Anglais in Nice, France, the day
after the attack

ByBRET STEPHENS

At last count, members of the European Union spent more
than $200 billion a year on defense, fielded more than 2,000 jet fighters and
500 naval ships, and employed some 1.4 million military personnel. More than a
million police officers also walk Europe’s streets. Yet in the face of an
Islamist menace the Continent seems helpless. Is it?

Was France helpless in May 1940?

Let’s stipulate that a van barreling down a seaside
promenade isn’t a Panzer division, and that a few thousand ISIS fighters
scattered from Mosul to Marseilles aren’t another Wehrmacht. But as in France
in 1940, Europe today displays the same combination of doctrinal rigidity and
loss of will that allowed an Allied army of 144 divisions to be routed by the
Germans in six weeks. The Maginot Line of “European values” won’t prevail over
people who recognize none of those values.

So much was made clear by French Prime MinisterManuel
Valls,who
remarked after the Nice attack that “France is going to have to live with
terrorism.” This may have been intended as a statement of fact but it came
across as an admission that his government isn’t about to rally the public to a
campaign of blood, toil, tears and sweat against ISIS—another premature
capitulation in a country that has known them before.

Mr. Valls was later booed at a memorial service for the
Nice victims. It would be heartening to think this was because he and his boss,
PresidentFrançois
Hollande,have
failed to forge a strategy to destroy ISIS. But the public’s objection was that
there hadn’t been enough cops along the Promenade des Anglais to stop the
attack. In soccer terms, it’s a complaint about the failure of defense, not the
lack of a proper offense.

Then there is Germany, site of three terror attacks in a week. It seems almost
like a past epoch that Germans welcomed a million Middle Eastern migrants in an
ecstasy of moral self-congratulation, led byAngela
Merkel’s chant of “We can do it!” Last summer’s slogan now sounds as
dated and hollow asBarack
Obama’s “Yes we can!”

Now Germany will have to confront a terror threat that
will make the Baader-Meinhof gang of the 1970s seem trivial. The German state
is stronger and smarter than the French one, but it also surrenders more easily
to moral intimidation. The idea of national self-preservation at all costs will
always be debatable in a country seeking to expiate an inexpiatable sin.

Thus the question of whether Europe is helpless. At its
1980s peak, underFrançois
MitterrandandHelmut
Kohl,the
European project combined German economic strength and French confidence in
power politics. Today, it mixes French political weakness with German moral
solipsism. This is a formula for rapid civilizational decline, however many
economic or military resources the EU may have at its disposal.

Can the decline be stopped? Yes, but that would require a
great unlearning of the political mythologies on which modern Europe was built.

Among those mythologies: that the European Union is the
result of a postwar moral commitment to peace; that Christianity is of merely
historical importance to European identity; that there’s no such thing as a
military solution; that one’s country isn’t worth fighting for; that honor is
atavistic and tolerance is the supreme value. People who believe in nothing,
including themselves, will ultimately submit to anything.

The alternative is a recognition that Europe’s long peace
depended on the presence of American military power, and that the retreat of
that power will require Europeans to defend themselves. Europe will also have
to figure out how to apply power not symbolically, as it now does, but
strategically, in pursuit of difficult objectives. That could start with the
destruction of ISIS in Libya.

More important, Europeans will have to learn that
powerlessness can be as corrupting as power—and much more dangerous. The storm
of terror that is descending on Europe will not end in some new politics of
inclusion, community outreach, more foreign aid or one of Mrs. Merkel’s
diplomaticRube
Goldbergs.It
will end in rivers of blood. Theirs or yours?

In all this, the best guide to how Europe can find its
way to safety is the country it has spent the best part of the last 50 years
lecturing and vilifying: Israel. For now, it’s the only country in the West
that refuses to risk the safety of its citizens on someone else’s notion of
human rights or altar of peace.

Europeans will no doubt look to Israel for tactical tips
in the battle against terrorism—crowd management techniques and so on—but what
they really need to learn from the Jewish state is the moral lesson. Namely,
that identity can be a great preserver of liberty, and that free societies
cannot survive through progressive accommodations to barbarians.

Friday, July 22, 2016

This
time in Munich.

The
events unfolded in predictable fashion: a youngIranian Muslimopened fire at a shopping mall in
Munichwhile screaming “Allahu akbar,” and initial mainstream
media reports were that the gunman was a “right-wing extremist,” lashing out on
the fifth anniversary of the Norwegian madman Anders Breivik’s massacre, while
screaming out his hatred for foreigners.

As it happened, it
was someone else screaming his hatred for foreigners at the jihad murderer, not
the other way around, but once again, the lie had gotten halfway around the
world before the truth had a chance to put on its shoes.

And the same old
comedy, the familiar one that plays out every week now in modern, multicultural
Europe and North America, duly played out again, to an increasingly bored and
indifferent crowd. Munich police chief Hubertus Andraeinformed the worldthat
the young jihadi had no known links to jihad terror groups, and added: “The
motive or explanation for this crime is completely unclear.”

Unclear? Really? What
is it about “Allahu akbar” and the gunning-down of innocent civilians that you
don’t understand, Herr Andrae? And the answer, of course, is: everything.
Hubertus Andrae, and Angela Merkel, and Theresa May, and Manuel Valls, and John
Kerry, and Barack Obama, and every last one of the other Western leaders are
resolutely and determinedly ignorant about what it means when a young Iranian
Muslim screaming “Allahu akbar” opens fire in a shopping mall.

What, after all,
could it possibly mean? This young man must have come from a troubled home, no?
He must have grown up in poverty and been denied access to all sorts of
economic opportunities that were open to native Germans of his age, right? He
must have been “radicalized on the Internet” by shadowy forces that somehow
possess the magic power to turn benign, peaceful Muslims who are a benefit and
asset to every Western nation into misunderstanders of their own religion who
suddenly and inexplicably discard the peaceful Islamic teachings they have
imbibed from youth in their Western mosques, in favor of a twisted and hijacked
version of their religion that leads them to think that treason and mass murder
are not only commendable, but blessed by the Almighty – isn’t that the case?

The
Munich shooter’s motive is completely unclear, because we don’t yet know if he
was teased in school or on the job, or if he had trouble getting a job in the
first place, or if he had psychological problems, or if he was a brooding loner
who always left his moderate Muslim friends disquieted – the only thing we do
know is that he couldn’t possibly have been motivated by a religion that
exhorts its adherents to “slay them wherever you find them” (cf. Qur’an 2:191,
4:89, 9:5).

No, none of that is
true, and one wonders if even the European and North American political and
media elites believe in their own nonsense anymore. The Munich mass murderer
was motivated by Islam, pure and simple – by its teachings of warfare against
unbelievers and the necessity to subjugate them. His war cry of “Allahu akbar,”
revered by jihadis for its power to “strike terror in the hearts of the enemies
of Allah” (Qur’an 8:60), demonstrates that.

The Islamic State’s
repeated calls for the mass murder of civilians in Western countries also
demonstrate that. Hubertus Andrae, and Angela Merkel, and Theresa May, and
Manuel Valls, and John Kerry, and Barack Obama, and every last one of the other
Western leaders persist in pretending that incidents such as the mass murder in
Munich on Friday, and the mass murders in Nice, Orlando, Brussels, Paris, San
Bernardino, Chattanooga, and elsewhere recently are all separate, discrete
criminal acts, unrelated to one another and all requiring extensive
investigation to determine the motives of the perpetrators.

That proposition is
not only false; it’s a Goebbelsian Big Lie. These are not criminal acts. These
are not the acts of the psychopathic or the disenfranchised. These are acts of
war, battles in a larger war that has been going on for 1,400 years and is
picking up speed in our own age, courtesy of our willfully myopic and feckless
leaders. Unless and until Western authorities begin to treat each of these
incidents as part of a larger war, they will continue to misdiagnose the
problem and apply the wrong solutions.

And
that is the one thing they are certain to do. And so there will be many, many
more Munichs. Watch this space next week for my comments on the next jihad
massacre and the next flurry of predictable denials and obfuscations. My
comments next week will be much like my comments here, because the actions of
the elites after the next jihad attack will be much like what they have been
today. What is it going to take to get leaders who are in touch with reality?
Seriously, is that really too much to ask?

Tuesday, July 19, 2016

Yossi Melman wants to know
how to stop a terrorist operating on his own (“How to stop a lone wolf,”
Analysis, July 18). The answer? You have to be winning a war, not losing it, so
that the lone wolf sees he is on the losing side.

Commentator Alexis Brezet
wrote in Le Figaro after last week’s terror attack in Nice: “Merah, Charlie,
Bataclan, Magnanville and now Nice. How long before our eyes are opened? How
many wild attacks, indiscriminate massacres before our leaders admit that Islamist
fanaticism has initiated a fight to the death against our country and our
civilization? We are at war!” After much procrastination, the words are now on
everyone’s lips: “To arms, citizens!” we shout lustily. But really, who
believes it? Our weapons are those of peace candles, hashtags, processions and
subtleties of our Code of Criminal Procedure.

Monday, July 18, 2016

Sunday, July 17, 2016

Below is an improved google translate of the editorial in Le Figaro by Alexis Brézet followed by the original text in French:

Merah, Charlie, Bataclan ,
Magnanville , and now Nice. How long before our eyes are opened ? How
many wild attacks , indiscriminate massacres before our leaders admit that
Islamist fanaticism initiated a fight to the death against our country and our
civilization? How many innocent victims - men , women and children - before our
leaders finally decide to take ruthless measures called for by the
barbarity of these madmen of Allah?

Merah, Charlie, Bataclan Magnanville and now Nice ... More than two hundred names
engraved in the memory of our country, and always the same surprise reactions ,
the same solemn declarations , the same quavering voice. After that? Some
additional soldiers in the streets , some legislative patches, some distant
bombing, and then nothing ...

" We are at war !
" Now it is said. After much procrastination , the term is now on
everyone's lips . But really, who really believes it ? " To arms, citizens," we shout lustily , but our weapons are those of peace candles,
hashtags , processions and subtleties of our Code of Criminal Procedure.

Phoney war , indeed! We
leave our borders ( our lines, say the soldiers ) open to our enemies. The
jihad recruiters preach their ideology of hatred with impunity in
mosques financed by the enemy. "Traitors" who went to fight in Syria
are subjected to a single stage of " de-radicalization ". As for the " S file," that could "form a fifth
column ", they gambol in the wild on the grounds that they " have not
yet committed any crime " ...

War, what war ? But we
live as if we were in peace! The state of emergency does not prevent either the
trade union demonstrations or the festive gatherings , which some claim without
laughing that they are " the best response to the Islamic State " ...
The president himself does not seem to believe in it and so he has
calmly announced , on 14 July, the end of the state of emergency and relief device "
Sentinel", before turning back at night,
when the tragic reality caught up.

For the soldiers of the
Caliphate, they do not wage wars half way . They
come right into our arms " To cut the throats of our sons, our women! ,"and we
offer them protection of our laws - to the very people who want to destroy us!
Never in history has an enemy received
so much complacency on the part of the one he fights.

This willful blindness has
lasted too long . To win the war , we must lead without half measures or cowardice
. And to give to those whose mission it is a chance to win , we must rearm. .
Military and police rearmament, of course. Legislative reset wherever
necessary. Moral rearmament especially , to collectively overcome
this perverse syllogism draped in the trappings of "living together "
which claims to disqualify , in France , any action against strong roots
of radical Islam on the grounds that "it would help the terrorists.
" As if we were fighting the best by offering our neck to their knife!As if the surest
path to communal clashes was not exactly the resignation of the state, the only
holder of legitimate force , and the only guarantor of civil peace ...

Obviously, to overcome the Islamist hydra
there is no miracle weapon. We will never escape the risk of attack. Is that a
reason not to try everything ? Of course, this war that has been declared we
will be long and difficult. We will probably suffer other defeats. All the more
reason not to lose more time . Merah , Charlie , Bataclan , Magnanville , Nice
... Now is the time to act if.we are ever to stop the sinister litany .

Note.
the text in dark red is a modified quote from " La Marseillaise"

Tuesday, July 12, 2016

What diplomats call the Joint Comprehensive Plan of
Action—known to the rest of us as the Disastrous Iran Deal—was agreed in Vienna
a year ago this week. Now comes a status update, courtesy of our friends at theBundesamt für Verfassungsschutz, or BfV.

In its fascinating 2015annual report, published late last month, the
German domestic intelligence service reports a “particularly strong increase”
in the number of Salafists, describes the reach of Russian and Chinese
espionage efforts in Germany, and notes a growing number of right-wing
extremists.

Then there’s this:

“The illegal proliferation-sensitive procurement
activities [by Iran] in Germany registered by the Federal Office for the
Protection of the Constitution persisted in 2015 at what is, even by
international standards, a quantitatively high level. This holds true in
particular with regard to items which can be used in the field of nuclear
technology.”

The report also notes “a further increase in the already
considerable procurement efforts in connection with Iran’s ambitious missile
technology program which could among other things potentially serve to deliver
nuclear weapons. Against this backdrop it is safe to expect that Iran will
continue its intensive procurement activities in Germany using clandestine
methods to achieve its objectives.”

The BfV report arrived days before Germany arrested a Pakistani national,
identified asSyed MustufaH., accused of spying for Iran. It
also corroborates another German intelligencereport, this one from the intelligence
service of North Rhine-Westphalia, that Iran’s nuclear procurement efforts have
increased dramatically in recent years, from 48 known attempts in 2010 to 141
in 2015. Seven other German states have reportedsimilarIranian procurement efforts. This
violates Iran’s explicit commitment to go through an official “procurement
channel” to purchase nuclear- and missile-related materials.

All this was enough to promptAngela Merkelto
warn the Bundestag last week that Iran “continued to develop its rocket program
in conflict with relevant provisions of the U.N. Security Council.” Don’t
expect German sanctions, but at least the chancellor is living in the reality
zone.

As for the Obama administration, not so much. For the
past year it has developed a narrative—spoon-fed to the reporters and editorial
writersBen
Rhodespublicly mocksas
dopes and dupes—that Iran has met all its obligations under the deal, and now
deserves extra cookies in the form ofaccess to U.S. dollars,Boeingjets, U.S.purchasesof
Iranian heavy water (thereby subsidizing its nuclear program), and other
concessions the administration last year promised Congress it would never
grant.

“We still have sanctions on Iran for its violations of
human rights, for its support for terrorism, and for its ballistic-missile
program, and we will continue to enforce those sanctions vigorously,” Mr. Obamasaidin
January. Whatever.

The administration is nowweighingwhether
to support Iran’s membership in the World Trade Organization. That would
neutralize a future president’s ability to impose sanctions on Iran, since WTO
rules would allow Tehran to sue Washington for interfering with trade. The
administration has also pushed the Financial Action Task Force, an
international body that enforces anti-money-laundering standards, to ease
pressure on Iran, which FATFdidlast
month by suspending some restrictions for the next year.

And then there’s the Boeing deal to sell $17.6 billion
worth of jets to Iran, which congressional Republicans led by Illinois’sPete
Roskamare
trying to stop. Iran uses its civilian fleet to ferry weapons and fighters to
its terrorist clients in Syria and Lebanon.

“The administration is trying to lock in the Iran deal
and prevent a future president from doing anything, including pushing back on
Iran’s malign behavior,” says the Foundation for Defense of Democracies’ Mark
Dubowitz, who knows more about Iran sanctions than anyone in Washington.
“Instead of curbing Iran’s worst behavior, the administration effectively
facilitates it.”

One last detail: In June, the Journal’s Jay Solomonreportedthat the International Atomic
Energy Agency had discovered “traces of man-made uranium” at Iran’s military
facility at Parchin. The agency reported this finding in a footnote to a report
in December, but the administration made no comment then and now dismisses it
as old news. The IAEA is no longer allowed to inspect Parchin, or any other
military installation, under the deal.

So let’s recap. Mr. Obama says Iran is honoring the
nuclear deal, but German intelligence tells us Tehran is violating it more
aggressively than ever. He promised “snapback” sanctions in the event of such
violations, but the U.S. is operating as Iran’s trade-promotion agent. He
promised “unprecedented” inspections, but we’re not permitted to inspect sites
where uranium was found. He promised an eight-year ban on Iran’s testing of
ballistic missiles, but Tehran violated that ban immediately and repeatedly
with only mild pushback from the West. He promised that the nuclear deal was
not about “normalizing” relations with a rogue regime. But he wants it in the
WTO.

Is Mr. Obama rationalizing a failed agreement or did he
mean to mislead the American public? Either way, truth is catching up with the
Iran deal.