House leadership races will give clues to GOP mood – Six years in, Obama still has ‘Bush hangover’ -- Valerie Jarrett: ‘We've all been through a cold and bitter winter and the bear has cabin fever’

DATA JU JOUR – Gallup.com: “congressional job approval, … at 16%, is on pace to be the lowest in a midterm election year since Gallup first measured it in 1974.” http://goo.gl/jE5YSU

POOL REPORT: It was a Clinton White House reunion in the Bahamas on Saturday, attended by the former President himself, as Jon Orszag -- former Clinton economic-policy adviser, and brother of Obama’s former budget director -- to on-air personality Mary Kitchen. The ceremony was officiated by James Carville, and attendees included Sean Rad, CEO and founder of Tinder, along with his girlfriend, Alexa Dell; Michael Peterson, son of philanthropist Peter Peterson; former Clinton counselor Doug Band and former Clinton foundation hand Justin Cooper; former Bill Clinton advisor Sara Latham; and former White House aide David Beaubaire. Clinton played a few holes of golf with some of the attendees.

Story Continued Below

WIDE-OPEN RACE FOR #3 in HOUSE GOP -- “The battle to become whip,” by John Bresnahan and Jake Sherman: “Candidates for whip … worked through the weekend to build support, but it’s not clear if the current leader — Louisiana Rep. Steve Scalise — has the votes to win it outright on the first ballot. Rep. Peter Roskam of Illinois is close behind, while Rep. Marlin Stutzman of Indiana is trying to cash in on unhappiness with the other two. … [The] wide-open three-way contest … pits conservatives against not only the establishment — but other conservatives [and] highlights some of the broader splits in the party. … Rep. Kevin McCarthy, the current majority whip, is running on Thursday to succeed Cantor and has virtually locked up that race. That leaves this week’s drama focused on the whip race, a powerful position in the House responsible for counting, rounding up and even strong-arming votes …

“If Republicans choose Scalise, it would demonstrate hunger for a conservative red-state Southern lawmaker atop the party. Scalise has locked up the support of at least 100 colleagues. … Reps. Aaron Schock of Illinois, Ann Wagner of Missouri and Patrick McHenry of North Carolina are all key in the Scalise operation. The party will maintain the status quo of leadership hailing from blue states if Roskam becomes the next whip. … But the race could be decided by Stutzman … Stutzman is tapping into unhappiness with Roskam, who is aligned with the GOP establishment, and Scalise, who some deem as insufficiently conservative. …

“Contests like this are hard to predict. … Lawmakers often lie during the whipping process, saying they will support multiple candidates. And because the vote is conducted by a secret ballot, there’s no way to call them out. … Leadership slots don’t open very often, which explains the intensity surrounding the whip race. … Scalise has a 48-member-strong whip team, with most of his strength coming from the South, and the huge Texas delegation. But he has support from some chairmen and leadership. … Roskam’s strength comes from the Midwest and older members.” http://goo.gl/XD1WxA

--WashPost col. 1, “In whip race, tea party has its best shot at leadership: Ideology and geography are in play amid angling for key House position,” by Robert Costa: “Rep. Jim Jordan (Ohio), a tea party leader, is with Stutzman. … Rep. Raúl R. Labrador (Idaho), a hard-charging sophomore, announced Friday that he would make a bid for majority leader, but with little organization and little time, his insurgent candidacy is considered an unviable expression of frustration about the rise of McCarthy … Labrador[‘s] case for being an able manager of the House floor was dealt a blow Saturday when he presided over Idaho’s state GOP convention and saw it fall into disarray amid infighting and procedural challenges” http://goo.gl/rD0ndb

--PLAYBOOK PREDICTION: McCarthy on first ballot … Scalise on second ballot. A House GOP insider emails: “Scalise may win outright on the first ballot, but second ballots are tough to game out and Roskam is playing hard for second-ballot votes. When Boehner ran against Blunt, Blunt almost won on the first ballot, … but Boehner had wrapped up all the second-ballot commitments and beat Blunt in round two. … Scalise is out in front, but Roskam is putting up a tough fight and Stutzman is making the whole thing hard to call.”

--“What Democrats Can Learn From Cantor's Loss,” by Howard Dean in POLITICO Magazine: “Cantor’s brutal comeuppance yields five even more important lessons for Democrats heading into November’s elections: First, competing in every state and every district is still vital. … Second, Americans are so fed up with Congress that even the tea party wants to kick it out. … Third, organization and shoe leather can beat big money. … Fourth, base support wins elections — unless it drives you outside the mainstream. … Lastly, and perhaps most important, Democrats need to learn from Cantor’s loss that anything can happen in 2014.” http://goo.gl/X357uh

TREASURY ARRIVAL: Casey Hernandez has joined the public affairs team at the Treasury Department as senior adviser. Casey was Deputy Director of Public Affairs at the Transportation Department, and was Associate Creative Director on the Presidential Inaugural Committee. She was a member of the 2012 Obama media team in Chicago, overseeing advertising for the Western and Northeastern regions, and supervising creative and strategy for all Spanish-language ads. Before the campaign, Casey was press secretary for L.A. Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa and worked at the Strategy Group in L.A. She is a graduate of USC and the Kennedy School.

POTUS HAS CABIN FEVER -- “On Vacation: Obama longs to break out of White House bubble,” by AP’s Nedra Pickler in Rancho Mirage, Calif.: “The restless president, who has compared himself to a caged animal on recent wanderings by declaring the ‘bear is loose,’ took a long Father's Day weekend away with his wife and older daughter. … ‘I think frankly we've all been through a cold and bitter winter and the bear has cabin fever,’ said … Valerie Jarrett. ‘His cabin is a little bit bigger and harder to escape than most.’ … Obama has worked out mornings at a gym near the Rancho Mirage home where the first family is staying with White House decorator Michael Smith and his partner, James Costos, the American ambassador to Spain.

“The hilltop home has sweeping views, a private tennis court and trapezoid swimming pool. Despite temperatures above 100 degrees, Obama [golfed] at two nearby courses -- Saturday at the Sunnylands estate and Sunday at the Porcupine Creek Estate owned by software billionaire Larry Ellison. … ‘Sometimes when all of the brown stuff is hitting the rotating blades, a vacation is not the best thing to go on,’ said Dana Perino, who was President George W. Bush's press secretary. .. ‘There were times the president wanted to go on a bike ride … but I'd have to say, ‘Mr. President, there was a bombing in Iraq,’ or ‘The markets are tanking.’

“Obama has taken three weekends away in a golf-friendly place this year … The Obama family also is planning a … vacation to Martha's Vineyard for two weeks in August … Obama has golfed every weekend since Washington's weather got clear enough to allow it in April, save a week when he was in Asia. Those close to Obama say his frequent golf outings are less about a love of the game than a desire to take a long walk outside. Obama also has been seen walking the darkened White House grounds, late into the evening, sometime with one of his dogs.

“Last week Obama … walk[ed] … 350 yards … to Starbucks. He told reporters who rushed to catch up with him to give him some space. The next day … he took Education Secretary Arne Duncan out for a burger. He … stopped by a Little League game and walked to an event at the Interior Department, … shaking hands with surprised tourists along the way. ‘I might walk up to the Lincoln Memorial, sit on there,’ Obama said when asked on … ‘Live with Kelly and Michael’ … what he would choose if he could do anything unrecognized.” http://goo.gl/llOmQx

--“Biden to visit Brazil, Caribbean, Central America”: “Vice President Biden begins a four-country trip across Latin America on Monday that starts with a stop in Brazil to cheer the US team as they face Ghana in the World Cup. Biden will fly directly to Natal, where his country's side face Ghana's Black Stars in a key Group G clash” today.

--“Obama’s Bush hangover,” by Edward-Isaac Dovere: “[T]he ripples from the Bush years go well beyond the Islamic militants marching toward Baghdad, larger foreign policy and the economy. There’s the detention facility in Guantanamo Bay … There’s the NSA surveillance apparatus he inherited (and bulked up significantly). And with two-and-a-half years left, that shows little sign of changing.” http://goo.gl/oxPuaD

BERGDAHL BACKWASH -- “Obama-Congress intelligence pipeline broken,” by Burgess Everett: “Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine) said the relationship is at an all-time nadir. … Senators in both parties describe persistent difficulty in drawing information out of administration officials before and after controversial events — though some of the same members have skipped briefings or leaked information after a classified meeting, reinforcing the White House’s concerns over loose-lipped lawmakers. … Feinstein and others reported improved communications with White House officials as Iraq descended into chaos.” http://goo.gl/R3D8sl

LIVE NOW: Katie Couric interviews Secretary of State John Kerry at Yahoo.com.

--N.Y. Times B4, “For Katie Couric, Shift to Web From TV Is Complete,” by Bill Carter: “After three decades of continuous work in television, Katie Couric has now officially moved on to what she is calling ‘my new chapter.’ That means closing production on the now-canceled syndicated talk show that has carried Ms. Couric’s name since 2012 and shifting full time to Yahoo, which late last year named her its ‘global anchor.’ … Marissa Mayer, chief executive of Yahoo, said she was already pleased with Ms. Couric’s work for the company. ‘And we are all excited to have even more of her innovation and leadership at Yahoo as we continue to reimagine how news is reported and delivered.’” http://goo.gl/i9jFpM

** A message from Chevron: More than 500 influential voices in energy. One platform. Chevron is proud to be the originating sponsor of the #EnergyInsider TweetHub. Visit the Tweet Hub now to get the latest insights on energy http://bit.ly/1lfved **

DEEP DIVE – New Republic cover, “The Unelectable Whiteness of [Wisconsin Gov.] Scott Walker: A journey through the poisonous, racially divided world that produced a Republican star,” by Alec MacGillis: “[His] accomplishment—effectively eliminating collective bargaining for most public employees in the state, facing down the angry protests that followed, surviving a rancorous recall election—has vaulted Walker into the top tier of Republican presidential contenders for 2016. … Walker has implemented an impeccably conservative agenda in a state that has gone Democratic in seven straight presidential elections. Unlike Mitt Romney, or, for that matter, John McCain, he is beloved by the conservative base, but he has the mien of a mainstream candidate, not a favorite of the fringe.” http://goo.gl/pGSsp6

-- NYT Book Review, “Hillary Rodham Clinton: By the Book” – “ Who are your favorite contemporary writers? Are there any writers whose books you automatically read when they come out? [HRC:] I will read anything by Laura Hillenbrand, Walter Isaacson, Barbara Kingsolver, John le Carré, John Grisham, Hilary Mantel, Toni Morrison, Anna Quindlen and Alice Walker. And I love series that follow particular characters over time and through their experiences, so I automatically read the latest installments from Alex Berenson, Linda Fairstein, Sue Grafton, Donna Leon, Katherine Hall Page, Louise Penny, Daniel Silva, Alexander McCall Smith, Charles Todd and Jacqueline Winspear.

“What are your favorite novels? Your favorite short stories? Poems you hold especially dear? [HRC:] ‘The Brothers Karamazov’ made a lasting impression on me when I read it as a young woman; I intend to reread it this summer to see what I now think about it. My favorite short stories are by Alice Munro, especially her collections ‘Carried Away’ and ‘Runaway.’ That’s an easy choice for me compared with the many poets I’ve appreciated over time. Included in that list are E.E. Cummings, T.S. Eliot, Seamus Heaney, Pablo Neruda, Mary Oliver and W.B. Yeats.” http://goo.gl/BoCwSP

-- “Hillary Clinton and Lissa Muscatine: From first lady and speechwriter to author and bookseller,” by WashPost’s Roxanne Roberts: “Muscatine, 59, is one of the core members of Hillaryland, the group of trusted female advisers who have surrounded Clinton for years. … In their eyes, her success is every woman’s success: the abstract promises of the feminist movement made concrete … It was something that Muscatine — then a Harvard graduate, Rhodes Scholar, writer, wife and soon-to be-mother — felt even before she met the first lady in 1993. … After more than a decade as a reporter and editor for the Washington Star and The Washington Post, she decided writing objectively about issues wasn’t enough. As the daughter of Berkeley activists, she wanted to do something.” http://goo.gl/ZJ342G

TOP TALKER -- “Arlington approves residential, office project that will also replace ‘Deep Throat garage’,” by WashPost’s Patricia Sullivan: “One of the most historic journalism sites … will soon vanish, following a decision by the Arlington County Board on Saturday to demolish the building and parking garage where FBI official Mark Felt secretly met with … Bob Woodward [at parking spot 32D] … The County Board unanimously agreed to allow Monday Properties to replace its two 12-story, 1960s-era buildings at 1401 Wilson Blvd. in Rosslyn with a 28-story residential tower and a 24-story commercial building.

“The parking garage … will be razed, although the county will save the historical marker it erected in 2011, and the landowner has pledged to create a commemorative memorial to the events … [D]emolition [will be] no earlier than January 2017.” http://goo.gl/0a18Rj

DE BLASIO NAMES COMMUNICATIONS DIRECTOR – Capital’s Sally Goldenberg: “Mayor Bill de Blasio plans to announce a new communications director on Monday morning: P.R. professional Andrea Hagelgans, who once worked for the city Campaign Finance Board and advised Planned Parenthood on its media strategy. Hagelgans has been working with individual city agencies on crafting the mayor's public image. … [Her] title is director of agency communications, was most recently a vice president of strategic communications and media at Camino Public Relations before going to City Hall in May.” http://goo.gl/tq3tMY

--“de Blasio’s Plan to Take Brooklyn Progressivism National,” by New York mag’s Chris Smith: “De Blasio, after six months in office, has managed to shift the political polarity of the city and the state. So why stop there? The mayor has always aspired to lead not just a city but a progressive movement, and de Blasio’s bid to bring the 2016 Democratic National Convention to New York is a signal of his ambitions. … De Blasio is as much realist as lefty idealist. Hillary Clinton is not Andrew Cuomo. But they share an instinctual preference for the pragmatic political center and a coziness with big-money interests—traits that produce a common tension with the increasingly leftish Democratic Party base.” http://goo.gl/evA2BS

--Lead of WSJ “Greater New York” section, “For Business, Uneasy Peace With Mayor,” by Michael Howard Saul: “Mayor Bill de Blasio has tried to forge better ties with New York City's corporate elite in his first six months in office, but he still encounters deep skepticism in the business world, from small firms to Wall Street.” http://goo.gl/dkPnNH

MEDIAWATCH -- “MailOnline hires ex-BuzzFeed boss as new North America Chief Executive Officer” -- DailyMail: “Jon [Steinberg] is a world-leading, senior digital media executive who joins the MailOnline North America from BuzzFeed where he was President & Chief Operating Officer for the past four years. … Jon is a CNBC contributor to Squawk Alley … He is a graduate of Columbia Business School and Princeton.” http://goo.gl/5Sy8ZN

BUSINESS BURST – “From barista to bachelor’s degree,” by Nirvi Shah: “Starbucks soon will be helping college kids with more than pulling all-nighters. The company … will pay a huge chunk of college tuition for its baristas and the rest of its 135,000 U.S. employees through a new partnership with Arizona State University. … The Starbucks College Achievement Plan will fully reimburse employees enrolled as college juniors and seniors in one of more than 40 of ASU’s online degree programs. Starbucks will pay partial tuition and provide need-based scholarships if students are enrolled as freshmen or sophomores.” http://goo.gl/0G7k4r

--Education Department release: “Secretary of Education Arne Duncan will join Starbucks CEO Howard Schultz, Arizona State University President Michael Crow, and 350 New York area Starbucks employees and their families for a discussion regarding the unique role business can play in addressing the issue of college affordability and access at 10:45 a.m. [today] at the Times Center in New York City.”

SPORTS BLINK – ESPN coverage begins at 5:30 p.m.: “2014 FIFA World Cup - Ghana vs. United States.” … Reuters: “Previous Meetings: The teams have played twice, at the last two World Cups, with Ghana winning both matches 2-1.” http://goo.gl/oGRKyc

BIRTHWEEK (was yesterday): Marie Harf, who celebrated en route to Vienna for the next round of P5+1 talks (h/t Rubin) … Dana Bash, who got up at 4 a.m. on her birthday to interview Eric Cantor and Lindsey Graham. The end of day finished with the love her life, Jonah, at Fiola Mare. (h/t Marc Adelman) … Alexandra Veitch, DHS Deputy Assistant Secretary for Legislative Affairs and former Pelosi speechwriter, turned 34 this weekend and as always shared her birthday with Flag Day.

** A message from Chevron: More than 500 influential voices in energy. One platform. Chevron is proud to be the originating sponsor of the #EnergyInsider TweetHub. Visit the Tweet Hub now to get the latest insights on energy http://bit.ly/1ls1hLB **

****** A message from UnitedHealth Group: What does it take to create a modern, high-performing, simpler health care system? Expanding access to care through proven state-based coverage and employer-sponsored insurance. Making health care more affordable with consumer-directed care and value-based payments. Supporting and modernizing Medicare to meet the complex health challenges of America’s seniors. And reinvesting in health to support research and innovation. Learn more about these ideas at http://www.unitedhealthgroup.com ******

Authors:

About The Author

Mike Allen is the chief White House correspondent for POLITICO. He comes to us from Time magazine where he was their White House correspondent. Prior to that, Allen spent six years at The Washington Post, where he covered President Bush's first term, Capitol Hill, campaign finance, and the Bush, Gore and Bradley campaigns of 2000. Before turning to national politics, he covered schools and local governments in rural counties outside Fredericksburg, Va., for The Free Lance-Star, then wrote about Doug Wilder, Oliver North, Chuck Robb and the Bobbitts for the Richmond Times-Dispatch, where he nurtured police sources on overnight ride-alongs through housing projects. Allen also covered Mayor Giuliani, the Connecticut statehouse and the wacky rich of Greenwich for The New York Times. Before moving to The Times, he did stints in the Richmond and Alexandria bureaus of The Washington Post. Allen grew up in Orange County, Calif., and has a B.A. from Washington and Lee University, where he majored in politics and journalism.