2014 AL and NL Cy Young Odds

2014 AL and NL Cy Young Odds

After the varied degrees of success for Japanese pitchers like Daisuke Matsuzaka, Key Igawa and Yu Darvish, fans and analysts alike wondered aloud how Masahiro Tanaka would translate to the big league game. After posting a 24-0 record with a 1.27 ERA last season for the Tohoku Rakuten Golden Eagles, the New York Yankees took a massive risk by rewarding the 25-year old right-hander with a 7-year contract worth $155 million.

That hefty investment was looking great early in the season with Tanaka posting a 12-4 record with a 2.51 ERA and 135 strikeouts in 129.1 innings. These numbers left Tanaka as the early front runner to win this year’s Cy Young and Rookie of the Year Award, however, the 6’2″ righty was diagnosed with a partially torn ulnar collateral ligament (UCL) and subsequently placed on the disabled list. This caused Tanaka’s odds to drop from +400 to +900.

The table below compares the current Cy Young odds at BetOnline and Bovada:

Originally posted 6/16/14, Last updated 7/22/14

Player

Team

Sportsbk (7/22)

Greek (7/22)

Bovada (7/17)

Bovada (6/4)

BetOnline (6/4)

Felix Hernandez

Seattle Mariners

-250

-250

+100

+500

+500

Chris Sale

Chicago White Sox

+300

+500

+500

+750

+750

Sonny Gray

Oakland Athletics

+500

+500

+1500

+800

+800

Scott Kazmir

Oakland Athletics

+700

+1000

+900

+1500

+1500

Garrett Richards

Los Angeles Angels

+900

+500

+1400

N/A

N/A

Max Scherzer

Detroit Tigers

+1000

+800

+1500

+750

+750

Masahiro Tanaka

New York Yankees

+2000

N/A

+900

+400

+350

Mark Buehrle

Toronto Blue Jays

+2000

+3000

+3300

+650

+650

Yu Darvish

Texas Rangers

+2500

+3000

+900

+650

+650

Rick Porcello

Detroit Tigers

+2500

+2500

+3300

N/A

N/A

James Shields

Kansas City Royals

+2500

N/A

N/A

+1600

+1600

David Price

Tampa Bay Rays

N/A

N/A

+1200

N/A

N/A

Jon Lester

Boston Red Sox

N/A

N/A

+3300

+3300

+3300

Corey Kluber

Cleveland Indians

N/A

N/A

+4000

+1400

+1400

Justin Verlander

Detroit Tigers

N/A

N/A

N/A

+1200

+1100

Jesse Chavez

Oakland Athletics

N/A

N/A

N/A

+3300

+3300

The current AL favorite, Felix Hernandez, is currently on a historic run. The 2010 AL Cy Young winner has thrown ten consecutive games with at least seven innings pitches and no more than two earned runs allowed. On the season Hernandez has gone 11-2 with a league-leading 2.12 ERA.

In the National League, Cardinals ace Adam Wainwright (8-3, 2.32 ERA) was listed as the favorite back when we first posted these odds back in early June. Although Wainwright has continued his dominance with a 1.83 ERA, Clayton Kershaw has been superhuman since his return from the disabled list on May 11th. On the year Kershaw has posted an 11-2 record with a 1.78 ERA and 126 strikeouts in just 96.1 innings pitched. That translates to an out-of-this-world 11.8 K/9.

Player

Team

Sportsbk (7/22)

Greek (7/22)

Bovada (7/17)

Bovada (6/4)

BetOnline (6/4)

Clayton Kershaw

Los Angeles Dodgers

-250

-175

-175

+700

+650

Adam Wainwright

St. Louis Cardinals

+150

+150

+175

+300

+300

Johnny Cueto

Cincinnati Reds

+500

+650

+1200

+500

+500

Zack Greinke

Los Angeles Dodgers

+700

+1500

+1200

+700

+700

Kyle Lohse

Milwaukee Brewers

+800

N/A

N/A

+900

+900

Julio Teheran

Atlanta Braves

+1200

+2000

N/A

+1200

+1200

Alfredo Simon

Cincinnati Reds

+2000

+3000

+3300

N/A

N/A

Tim Hudson

San Francisco Giants

+2500

N/A

N/A

+1200

+1200

Josh Beckett

Los Angeles Dodgers

+3000

N/A

N/A

+1600

+1600

Hyun-Jun Ryu

Los Angeles Dodgers

+3000

N/A

N/A

+2000

+2000

Stephen Strasburg

Washington Nationals

N/A

N/A

+2500

+1200

+1200

Madison Bumgarner

San Francisco Giants

N/A

N/A

+3300

+1000

+1000

Cliff Lee

Philadelphia Phillies

N/A

N/A

N/A

+2500

+2500

Craig Kimbrel

Atlanta Braves

N/A

+2000

N/A

N/A

N/A

Francisco Rodriguez

Milwaukee Brewers

N/A

+5000

N/A

N/A

N/A

Michael Wacha

St. Louis Cardinals

N/A

N/A

N/A

+1200

+1200

Hot early starters like Tim Hudson and Julio Teheran have seen their numbers trail off and have been removed as a betting option. However, 33-year old Reds pitcher Alfredo Simon has emerged from nowhere and continues to perplex baseball fans across the nation.

Prior to this year, Simon had never thrown more than 115.2 innings in a season and has already set a new career high with 116.2. His last turn as a starter was in 2011 when he posted a 4.90 ERA for the Baltimore Orioles. Despite this lack of pedigree and a notoriously hitter-friendly home stadium, Simon currently boasts a 12-3 record, a 2.70 ERA, and 33/1 odds to win the 2014 Cy Young Award.

For those that are interested, ESPN does offer a Cy Young Predictor which lists Felix Hernandez and Adam Wainwright as the current Cy Young favorites.

As always, we’re interested in your take. Are there any players that should be added to this list? Which pitchers are offering value MLB to bettors? Can Kershaw win his third Cy Young in four years? Leave your thoughts and comments in the section below.