July 2015

PIOMAS October 2013

It took a bit longer because of the shutdown, but here is the updated Arctic sea ice volume graph as calculated by the Pan-Arctic Ice Ocean Modeling and Assimilation System (PIOMAS) at the Polar Science Center:

Mind you, I expect another update with October date soon as well.

Here's Wipneus'
version with the calculated "expected" 2013 values (dotted
lines), based on the same date values of 1979-2011 and an exponential
trend.A caveat from Wipneus: "Note that the statistical error bars are quite large."

Comments

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My gut feeling is that PIOMAS is going to bottom out earlier than usual this year. Northern ocean areas are very warm, the ice is weak and vulnerable. There's been a significant increase in pollution carried from continental Asia up north and the jet stream is wobbling :(

A little of topic, but I'd like to make you aware of an iPad app called MeteoEarth HD (0,99€ this weekend, I have no financial or other relationship with them). This app shows you amongst others winds/pressure systems in real time projected on a globe, polar projection is very well. I had this "seeing Google Earth for the first time" experience.

This is the first time I've seen the cold air actually flow of of Greenland. The Philippine Typhoon was also spectacular. I think it'll help me better understand next years ice movements on the Pole. Highly recommended.

After some more ice is left , we are currently seeing a faster freezing of the East Siberian Sea and the Kara Sea . This does not automatically mean that we have to expect there next year thicker ice because rapid freezing may also have the effect that the underlying water is previously isolated before it can cool down the cold winds up at greater depths . As we saw in the previous year despite late freezing surprisingly thick ice in the Kara Sea . Similarly, it was also in the Hudson Bay . I am of the opinion it
could mean a negative feedback effect this isolation . This
would mean a 2 year cycle with the minimum cover , which also seems quite logical to me .
The Bouforth Lake got by the strong winds in the summer much MYI
( multi-year ice ) was inserted , which is still the direction Tschukschensee
drifts . I expect from mid- November, a rapid decrease in the drift velocity .
Worries me the thin ice of Greenland north of Morris Yessup to Fram Str . . It is currently only half as thick as in October 2012. What will mean that there will not be far to the south in the coming melt season . Also the Jöklbucht is already occupied with fresh thin ice , so no MYI can drift to the coast to spend the winter there . This will have a rapid warming of Greenland's east coast next summer to follow . Be particularly felt that the East Greenland glacier as
Zachariah , 79, and Storstossen Bistrup . Above all, the melt of the basal
Kalbungsfronten will not miss its effect . Whether there is a large increase in the flow rate when Zachariah remains to be seen .
He is in my opinion a sleeping giant .
Now to the Barents Sea . The ice cover there is a distinct question of wind patterns and can lead to very large differences in coverage.
Currently, we have very strong winds from the Arctic basin towards the Barents Sea will continue for one week. That is why on the atlantic side of the Arctic ice are more advanced than the previous year , although this year it is melted over there , 2012.
The Bering Sea , I expect this year not as fast as ice-covered last year ,
because the temperatures are relatively warm layers of water up to 30m deep and are therefore not adapt with certain inertia changing winds. In the next summer, it will be interesting to see how quickly the Bering Sea
is ice-free and the Tschukschensee opens. But anyway , I think that is the Achilles heel of the Arctic Barents Sea .

Larsboelen, thanks for the tip about MeteoEarth. Best weather app I have ever seen, and also for the Droid people too. Amazing coverage in the arctic and everywhere else. Only thing it does not do (yet) is a sea ice layer, waves, sea temperature and take out the trash.