DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Harvey was
located near latitude 28.0 North, longitude 97.0 West. Harvey has
just made landfall on the Texas coast over the northern end of San
Jose Island about 4 miles (6 km) east of Rockport. Harvey is
moving toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). The hurricane is
expected to slow its forward motion and move slowly over
southeastern Texas during the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher
gusts. Harvey is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Weakening is forecast during the next 48
hours while the center of Harvey is over southeastern Texas.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles
(220 km). A Texas Coastal Ocean Observing Network station at
Aransas Pass recently reported sustained winds of 111 mph (178 km/h)
and a wind gust of 131 mph (211 km/h).

The minimum central pressure just reported by an Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 938 mb (27.70 inches).

The standard has been for a long time, determined/analyzed as opposed to directly measured when the latter is lower, a determination of highest wind “sustained”/averaged for 60 seconds in the windiest part of the storm, and the official altitude for determining this is 10 meters above the surface.

Harvey had actual Cat-3 surface wind measurement reported by the National Hurricane Center when it was landfalling. I would redirect the question to Harvey having achieved Cat-4 status, because Harvey did so as a result of a 2012 change of the definition of Cat-4 by 1 MPH (and the definition change considered usual practice being rounding to the nearest 5 km/h, MPH and knots). Harvey had a Cat-3 qualifying (barely) actual wind measurement, not merely an analysis that such qualifying wind existed with 10 meters of the surface in the qualifying region of the storm, reported in the #23 Public Advisory on Harvey.

@osqsss
Under the old standard that included barometric pressure and storm surge, you are correct that Harvey would be a Category 4. However, barometric pressure and storm surge were removed from the Saffir-Simpson Wind (renamed) Scale in 2009. I have not found a wind speed measurement of 130mph. I’d like to see where that was measured.

My understanding is that the Air Force hurricane hunters take their measurements in the higher winds at the altitude they are flying at then interpolates what the winds should be down lower and that is how they declared this a CAT IV. The sensors they drop cannot give sustained wind speeds at a given altitude simply because they are descending too quickly.

Has anyone found data from a land based station that shows 1 minute sustained winds of 130 mph (113 kt) or higher that meets the following conditions as per the following NOAA statement: “The maximum sustained surface wind speed (peak 1-minute wind at the standard meteorological observation height of 10 m [33 ft] over unobstructed exposure) associated with the cyclone is the determining factor in the scale.”

My state of the art on the Air Force Hurricane Hunters is 30 years out of date, but in the 80s we dropped sensors through the wall to measure wind speed, temperature, pressure, and dew point all the way to the surface by parachute. The sensor radioed back the readings to the dropsonde operator until impact. That may have changed, but it was a good way to study the vertical components of the eye wall.

Owen in GA says:
August 26, 2017 at 9:25 am
RAH,
My state of the art on the Air Force Hurricane Hunters is 30 years out of date, but in the 80s we dropped sensors through the wall to measure wind speed, temperature, pressure, and dew point all the way to the surface by parachute. The sensor radioed back the readings to the dropsonde operator until impact. That may have changed, but it was a good way to study the vertical components of the eye wall.
———————————————————————————————————————————-
Owen in GA

I was referring to the standards for Saffir-Simpson classification as per NOAA. They say:
“The maximum sustained surface wind speed (peak 1-minute wind at the standard meteorological observation height of 10 m [33 ft] over unobstructed exposure) associated with the cyclone is the determining factor in the scale. ”http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pdf/sshws.pdf

So unless the sensors dropped hung 10 meters off the surface for 1 full minute recording the wind speed, they cannot be used for Saffir-Simpson classification. Also, a hurricane of even Cat III strength can easily generate waves higher than 10 meters. Thus any readings from any sensor or anemometer on or over the water surface should be viewed with that in mind.

As a practical matter the difference between a strong Cat III and a weak Cat IV means little or nothing to those in the path. But in science I have noticed that temperatures, sea levels, etc are often written by the highest authorities are expressed right down to 10ths or even 100ths of the unit or measurement. It seems to this layman that precision in applying the standard as stipulated for Saffir-Simpson classification by the NHC, NOAA, Air Force, and all of the press, is sorely lacking in this case. And I will have that impression until someone can show the raw data taken as per the standards stated above that show Harvey had 130 mph winds or higher sustained for one minute ANYWHERE it was measured after, at, or very near the time of land fall.

Phil: As for a 130 MPH actual measurement: The National Hurricane Center’s #23 Forecast Discussion mentions multiple 110-115 knot indications from the stepped frequency microwave radiometer aboard a Hurricane Hunter plane. Although that discussion refers to those as estimates, the SFMR results are effectively indirect measurements of surface wind.

I am searching the gulf for a buoy with high ind speed – 9:01 eastern time, I see buoy Station 42020 (LLNR 1330) – CORPUS CHRISTI, TX with wind speed of 35 knots, gusts of 43 knots – it should be hellacious right there at this moment.

Officially, hurricane speeds are supposed to be reckoned at 10 meters – because that is the elevation where flying debris is going to hurt us. Who cares if the wind speed is 100MPH a quarter of a mile up – the wind is always way faster far above the ground!

From this webpage for Harvey, there are 993 observations from 08/26/2017 0100 GMT to 08/26/2017 0424 GMT. The highest sustained winds were from Station ANPT2 at 8:42 PM. 96 knots is barely Category 3. The claimed maximum sustained speed of 130 mph or 113 knots is not shown in these 993 observations. Where the 113 knots measurement was taken is not shown here that I can see. If anyone know where this measurement was taken, it would be interesting to know. From all the other measurements on this weppage, the claimed 113 knots don’t seem to be credible.

Mosher: I have always respected you, but you are just trolling. It is not unreasonable to wonder where a particular number comes from. There does not seem to be any credible claim for Harvey to be classified as more than a Category 2. There is only one single measurement at the lowest limit for a Category 3. There is no support for a Category 4 rating based on the 993 measurements referenced.

Harvey has continued to slowly strengthen since the last advisory.
Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft data earlier indicated
700-mb flight-level winds near 130 kt, and there have been multiple
estimates from the Stepped Frequency Microwave Radiometer of winds
of 110-115 kt. In addition, there have been winds of 135-150 kt
observed at 2500-3000 ft in the north eyewall by the Corpus Christi
WSR-88D. Based on these, Harvey is making landfall at this time as
a category 4 hurricane with winds near 115 kt.”

Mr. Mosher:
Who cares?
CO2 has been high before.
CO2 is good.
noaa lies.
models suck.
Ignore the warnings to reduce CO2. No one can predict the future.
Gee, it’s like poetry! Iambic pentameter and all!! And we agree 50% of the time.

Absolutely not…..and it’s the most dangerous irresponsible thing they could do.
Hyping a storm, and then when people see how little actual damage was done…..
…they will think “it’s a cat 4, we should have stayed home”

Because of your agenda…you are blaming models suck….NOAA lies
Well you’re half right….

Surface-based observing sites can’t be used to verify hurricane category. Reason being is that the Saffir-Simpson scale uses a 1-minute average to determine sustained winds, but observing sites use a 2-minute average to report sustained winds.

Regarding Philip Klotzbach’s tweet that Katrina had wind speed less than Cat-4 at landfall: At 8 AM CDT Mon Aug 29 2005, Public Advisory 26b gave a position of 29.7 N 89.6 W which Google Maps shows as having made landfall, and the reported maximum sustained wind determination was 135 MPH.

However at least there were pretty pictures in your long post. Alas, exactly ZERO new information and nothing cogent to finding a ground based wind speed reading confirming Cat 4 ground winds.
When you find that, let us know.

Is it not clear to you that say wind speed ratings like for Carla in the 60s were less likely to capture the highest wind, and comparisons should be made via the same methodology?

Because 2016 was the “hottest year ever” (by .05 degrees or something equally phenomenal) and now it proves warming causes a Cat 4 hurricane every 12 years or so, compared to whatever number in the past makes this look scary. I think I understand now.

Gosh, you’re right. Just think; there were no US landfall hurricanes during the 8 years Baroque Obama was in office. And now, less than 8 months after Trump was sworn in we get our first landfall hurricane!

I think I better put a sarc/ tag here just in case someone from CNN reads my comment; takes it seriously; promotes the idea; and a new round of PR firm hired $25/hr protesters take to the streets against Trump … and I get blamed for it.

Technically, they may have had reason to predict in the direction of “fizzling out” since for 12 years hurricanes did change course or fizzle out. It’s what one would tend to predict when a straight trend line is used. The past cannot predict the future, but people just don’t get that.

Actually a couple of days ago it had ‘fizzled out’ and they were predicting that it would it would redevelop:

“Ex-Harvey Poised to Threaten Texas

Dr. Jeff Masters · August 22, 2017, 1:56 PM

Above: The remains of Harvey as seen by the GOES-16 satellite at 9:15 am EDT Tuesday, August 22, 2017. Image credit: NOAA/CIRA/RAMMB. NOAA’s GOES-16 satellite has not been declared operational and its data are preliminary and undergoing testing.

All eyes are on the hurricane-friendly waters of the Gulf of Mexico’s Bay of Campeche, where the remains of Tropical Storm Harvey are expected to organize into a tropical storm or hurricane that will threaten Texas and Mexico late this week.”

” Who are “they”? Can you show us these predictions? Dr Masters says “all eyes” were on the hurricane friendly waters. That suggests a common expectation that it would re-establish, but it would be good to see the predictions of fizzling out so we can see for ourselves.

The MSM have been getting ready for this – how to report it without mentioning the hurricane drought. So the narrative is: Very few landfall hurricanes are cat 3+ (implication – this is a big one thanks to AGW); This is the strongest in 12 years (implication – AGW is making hurricanes stronger); etc, etc. They have no shame.

Too funny gloatus. lloks like your eyeballing is not the BEST way to do things.
funny that you trust nullschool.
1.3C Warmer than it is normally at this time of the year.

Ideally WE wont subsizing the the rebuilding of the area..

Folk have been warned.
1. The area is prone to flood risk
2. The best science says that risk will INCREASE not decrease in the future.
3. Folks who choose to live in risky areas should do so at their own peril and not depend on bailouts
simply because they choose to doubt the science.

Misuse of “normal” again! Normal means conforming to an established norm, such as 98.6F for human body temperature while alive, or 20/20 vision. Such norms are established by long-term observations and are specific figures, not averages. For humans, deviations of two or three degrees above or below 98.6 are cause for concern; deviations of ten degrees are cause of death.

Sea surface temperature has no norm. It has a history, known or not; it has mean or average temperature for a specific time period and location; it has fluctuations from minute to minute, hour to hour, day to night, season to season, year to year, etc. No norm. Perhaps SST is slightly above some long-term average for the site and the date; perhaps not; perhaps there is a cause/effect relation between above-average SST and wind speed; perhaps not. Surely there are other areas in the world’s oceans that are currently showing fluctuations above the long-term average for the site and the date. Why are no Cat-4 hurricanes occurring at all those places?

Steven Mosher- if you’re trying to make a point, it would be nice if you’d state it directly instead of your snarky little comments.

Are you trying to blame Harvey on human activity? There is NO measurable connection between hurricanes and human activity. To imply that Hurricane Harvey is “our fault” is no better than Pat Robertson saying it’s “God’s punishment.” Even worse is to tell people we know how to prevent or control hurricanes. Absolutely false. That’s beyond misleading- it’s FRAUD.

“The 1886 Indianola Hurricane destroyed the town of Indianola, Texas and as such had a significant impact on the history and economic development of Texas.[1] It was the fifth hurricane of the 1886 Atlantic hurricane season and one of the most intense hurricanes ever to hit the United States”

MSM/ABC in Australia is already marketing this as the largest hurricane to ever hit Texas and will leave huge areas of Texas uninhabitable. Soon it will be touted as the biggest in recorded history and category 6 at least. It is all exactly as they predicted and it is all Trump’s fault for leaving the Paris agreement. Send money now…… Ho Hum.

I was afraid my grandkids wouldn’t know what a hurricane is. Thought maybe CAGCC might have been real and ended strong hurricane landfalls in the US forever. Looks like at least this weather phenomena is back to normal. Hope all those in Harvey’s path make it through OK.

It is obvious that while Harvey is right on the edge of Cat/Cat 3 that the media will push it over into Cat 3 regardless of the data. The double eyewall condition is not stable and contact with land may just collapse the structure. Still a lot of rain and flooding and dangerous but watch the MSM for impact inflation.

Dawg: by the accepted definitions of hurricane categories (10-meter altitude sustained wind, as in Wikipedia and other obvious places), data show Harvey to barely be Cat2, if you squint and look at it sideways.

Observing sites report sustained winds using a 2-minute average. For some reason the hurricane folks use a 1-minute average for sustained wind. Thus, it’s not entirely accurate to determine hurricane category from surface observations, the latter will always come in lower by definition.

Actually the average for Atlantic hurricane numbers and intensity since 2005 has been running pretty much right along the historical record mean. It’s the lack of them hitting the lower 48 that has been quite unusual.

If the Hurricane Hunter planes say is now Cat 3, probably is. If it stalls like Joe Bastardi at WeatherBell and increasingly the NHC says, is NOT good. This could become another Katrina flooding disaster. Spun many ways. But no matter how spun, still a genuine disaster. Lets hope the vulnerable have evacuated.

SM, do not appreciate your sarcasm. I was stating a simple hurricane hunter fact, not generally accepted by many skeptics here–perhaps for good reason.
What you did not know is that my father, buried at Arlington with the second (peacetime) neck order and a 21 gun salute, was commander of the 409th typhoon chasers back in 1948-1950. His contributions (including an Air Force patent in his name) and personal observations from command piloting converted B-29s into Pacific typhoons with early drop sondes are the stuff upon which NHC is built today, I absorbed it all at the dinner table. You got nothing except bile.

With Katrina I waited until Sunday AM to leave due to having
evacuated so many times when the hurricane changed its path
and not much happened in the city. I was supposed to start
teaching at my university the next day and two of my kids were
having the first day of class for their senior and freshman years
in high school and were vehement about not leaving for a false
alarm.

Since Katrina hit on the other side of Florida, it seemed natural to
think it would slow down and dissipate once it hit land or at least
be less powerful. Instead, it crossed Florida into the Gulf and at
least the way I remember it, went from a Cat. 1 to a Cat. 5 overnight
and was projected to land near N.O. 24 hours later. So, that was a
big reason people waited – it hit on the Atlantic side of Florida first.

Later, they realized it had crossed a super-heated patch of water
that allowed it to intensify so rapidly.

It’s certainly NOT the people’s fault for rebuilding in an area that has been decimated so many times before by storms of this magnitude, or rebuilding to the same standards that allowed similar damages as prior storms.
My suggestion would be to either allow nature to keep the islands as a buffer zone and/or rebuild the areas to withstand these storms.

A century ago my family vacationed in Rockport, my wife graduated from highschool there, and we currently live and evacuated from there in the late morning of the day it struck. I have been in and run from several hurricanes since 1960, including Celia (1970). Recently I went to a talk at the Rockport Historical Society about the damage Celia did to the Jackson Seafood Company. This time it will be to the sports fishing industry and all those trailers we knew were temporary. We were going to stay in a probable secure place, apparently still so, with daughter and son-in-law but made the decision with others to leave for Austin where I write this high above the hill overlooking the city with quite a wind outside. Part of the reason for leaving was the information provided by the brave hurricane intruding fliers.

Will let you know in a week or so how it should be classified, to the nearest decimal.

There are three issues concerning wind uncertainty. 1. The SS scsle is defined by sustained 1 minute winds. What about gusts? 2. Altitude. Hurricane hunters must remsin far above the turbulent deck ( whether 2.5 or 10 meters), so project slower winds down toward surface based on friction. Inherent observational uncertainty. 3. Storm organization can rapidly change, for example eith eye wall replacement. So this hour is not ewual to next hour.
I see ‘cat 3’ less a precise measurement and more a meteorologist informed judgement. No hyped conspiracy, just a tough call. And, like with tornados, verifiable after the fact from wind damage. Hence my conclusion that 2916 Hermine was a TS and not a Cat 1.

I do know that they use a generalized wind profile to convert flight level winds to surface winds, but I don’t know what the criteria is for calling it a specific category. Any observed winds or just surface winds.

Lurking: no. The wind speed has to be sustained for a minute, and has to be at 10 meters.
A quarter mile up is irrelevant. The wind is always fast way above us. But, up there, there is no aluminum siding to fly through your windows. So, 10 meters it is; yes, about two stories up, where things are relevant to us on planet earth.

Just noting that the new Goes16 satellite has been “operational” for the past month.

Much higher resolution. Eyewall is bigger now (signalling some weakening) but it is more defined. Outer-banks landfall in a few minutes. Moved a little east now, so Corpus Christi misses the more damaging east-side winds.

Joe Bastardi at Weatherbell called Harvey a Cat 3 this afternoon and said that it will weaken and loop back out to sea, travel up the coast and then hit Northeast on the Texas coast later this week, after strengthening into a Cat 3 again.

They also estimate wind speed by pressure. Certain wind speeds are associated with certain pressures. Also, just looking at the latest satellite pics with a most impressive eye formed, the wind is strong with this one.

Now that the eye is on land, I am not seeing any surface sustained windspeeds higher than 80 MPH. Please chime in if you see one reported. Not from an airplane, and not a pressure proxy. Measured, sustained windspeed at 10metres elevation is what I want to see.

Why problem? Although severe flooding is to be expected in the short term, Texas had an almost 15-year period of severe drought, meaning that the long-term effects of major rains would be beneficial to the water reserves of the state. Each medal has two sides, hurricanes are, at least for nature, also long-term for humans helpfull.

Soon, environmental activists and reporters began to ask whether “drought”—a temporary weather pattern—was really the right term for what was happening in the state, or whether “desertification” was more appropriate. “We’re on our fourth year of drought,” Katharine Hayhoe, director of the climate science center at Texas Tech University in Lubbock, told the industry magazine Meatingplace. “In order to replenish depleted reservoirs and soil moisture, we don’t need just a normal year or just a single rainfall. We need an unusually wet year to get back to normal conditions.” But the early months of 2015 have seen less than 1.4 inches of total precipitation—not even a third of what is considered normal rainfall, much less enough to replenish surface water and groundwater resources.

Here’s the problem. If NOAA is calling this a Cat-4 and it’s not on the ground and people are hanging around and doing selfies. What happens when a “real” Cat-4 comes ashore? This is where their alarmism will kick them in a$$.

NOAA wants it to be a CAT4 since they totally committed the the AGW BS.
They need to be challenged.
Fortunately, thanks to Al Gore’s internet, observers around the world can see the deceit.
Time for a congressional over site committee to look into this scam.
Joe Bastardi needs to help us.

I am calling NOAA out on the Category 4 rating. There does not seem to be but one observation out of more than 900 to support a Category 3 rating. If this one single observation from Station ANPT2 at 8:42 PM at the bare minimum for the rating (96 knots) is disregarded, only a Category 2 rating would be justified for Hurricane Harvey. Observations are at http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/radial_search.php?storm=at4. Where is the justification for a Category 4 rating? I am not pretending to minimize the danger or harm that a Hurricane like Harvey can/will cause to human beings and/or property. Otherwise, the Category ratings become meaningless.

Harvey has continued to slowly strengthen since the last advisory.
Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft data earlier indicated
700-mb flight-level winds near 130 kt, and there have been multiple
estimates from the Stepped Frequency Microwave Radiometer of winds
of 110-115 kt. In addition, there have been winds of 135-150 kt
observed at 2500-3000 ft in the north eyewall by the Corpus Christi
WSR-88D. Based on these, Harvey is making landfall at this time as
a category 4 hurricane with winds near 115 kt.

Extreme weather events like this one are part of the current climate so stopping climate change will not stop extreme weather events from happening. There is no know climate to change to that will put an end to extreme weather events. Maybe if we could just get rid of all of Earth’s atmosphere, high wind evernt would never happen but droughts would go on for ever and life on Earth would no longer exist.

In all technical seriousness, assuming that hurricanes arive every 5-10 years, how long does the sampling period need to be for the average to converge to its “steady state” level?

Failure to adopt a proper averaging period and failure to keep track of the complete distributions of variable data leads to inappropriate attribution of causes. One such might be looking at Houston rainfall data to conclude that “recent extremes are greater”. This is particularly ironic if even more extreme events had destroyed their recording stations.

If rainfall tallies are anything like what is being predicted – as much as 35 inches in some places, then the cries of “climate change” and “extreme weather” will reach epic proportions. Of course, drought, as in the 2011 drought, are also “climate change”. Funny that.

“As the water rose, the National Weather Service issued another ominous forecast: Before the storm that arrived Friday as a Category 4 hurricane is gone, some parts of Houston and its suburbs could get as much as 50 inches (1.3 meters) of rain. That would be the highest amount ever recorded in Texas.”

At 3am central time. Beeville Texas should be in the worst of it all.
They report wind at 43 mph, gusts to 47 mph.
Stick a fork in it. Earlier this evening, the weather guys were saying this was going to take a tour of th eGulf Coast with wind speeds of 75MPH and higher. Nope, not gonna happen.

Five hours after Hurricane Harvey made landfall in Texas around 10 p.m. as a Category 4 storm, it was downgraded to a Category 2 storm, with maximum sustained winds of 110 mph, a decrease from 130 mph when it made landfall.

And Harvey was downgraded to a Category 3 storm around 1 a.m., after winds decreased to 125 mph.

Harvey also made a second landfall on the northeastern shore of Copano Bay around the time it was downgraded to Category 3.

Copano bay is a beautiful remote area, very lowlying and lightly populated. Refugio is the largest town, off the bay on a relatively high area. All the houses on the bay are built for heavy weather. I may be passing through their on the way to Corpus Christi this coming weekend.
If I do, I will be certain to report what I see.

A lovely small town built where it is due to the wisdom of the Spanish in noting where the Indians stayed for safety during heavy weather. Fishing and hunting in the area is marvellous.
In a separate note there is a large windmill installation on the northeast shore of Corpus Christi bay. They are huge and hideous, visible from across the large bay. I can only wonder how they have fared through this storm….

I’m waiting for Gore to now claim that the number of hurricanes has increased 10,000% with the arrival of Harvey. Gore’s camera crew is now deployed to film footage for his next epic – “Inconvenient Death Storms”
I thought fat slobs were supposed to die young. So why is Gore still waddling around?

You forgot the cry of adaption not mitigation
If you live in an area prone to environmental danger adapt or move on. The Somerset levels have the same problem in UK the population will pay £200m to save 600 properties from flooding. Why am I paying to protect people who needed to consider the risks when they purchased properties.

Most tropical weather is not tgat bad.
All of it is natural.
The vast majority of people are merely inconvenienced by storms.
It is long past time to back off the overwrought emotional responses.
Storms have and will be with us always.
The focus needs to be on those relative few impacted seriously.

11 years and 10 months without a major striking the shores of the lower 48 was just luck! But a major striking anywhere in the lower 48 is confirmation of AGW/Climate change.

During the so called “Hurricane drought” the “scientists” decided that the “relationship” between Tropical Cyclone intensity and AGW/Climate change was very “complex”. But as soon as a couple more majors strike US shores that “relationship” will no doubt become simpler, like it was before, immediately after Katrina.

Hugo was pretty bad north of its track. Pine forests flattened with tree trunks snapped like match sticks. The National Guard wouldn’t let me drive all that far south of Myrtle Beach, so I walked and saw beachfront houses that had been up on twelve foot poles smashed two or three blocks inland, when I got down towards Surfside and Murrells Inlet. I sure was impressed.

Current radar indicates it has moved pretty far inland and has not yet stalled.
With the eye so far inland it must be weakening quite a bit.
My friends in Corpus Christi had windsvwell under 100 mph.
We in Houston are having strong but not flooding rains so far.
Streets in my flood prone area are still open and safely passable.
The winds are definitely tropical storm level, blustering, wet and extremely humid.
Our power went out for a few hours when a local transformer blew. Our wonderful neighbors let us tap into their generator and we kept the refrigerator going, but the power was back on in a few hours.
The storm bands, now that the eye is inland, are coming at such an angle that the rains tend to train long ways across our area, dumping rain with fewer breaks. This increases flood risks for Houston metro area.
So if the storm does stall in its current position we may see some of the flooding start.

Headed for the San Antonio Austin area it looks like now. I was in training at Ft. Sam Houston in San Antonio when Hurricane Allen came ashore near Brownsville in 1980 and came up our way as it dissipated. Some genius opened the fire escape door at the end of our barracks bay which was about 4 stories above the ground to get a better look. It took three of us pulling on the bar with all our strength to get that damned door closed.

I think they mean that, so far, no fatality has been confirmed [but, unhappily, could be in the coming hours/days].

And – ‘unprecedented’: – here it is: –

“Recovery efforts and the clean-up in the wake of Hurricane Harvey will take “years”, officials say.
“This is going to be an unprecedented, long and frustrating event for the state of Texas,” the head of the US Federal Emergency Management Agency, Brock Long, told MSNBC.
“The recovery from this disaster is going to be years,” Mr Long added.
The storm has destroyed homes, severed power lines and forced tens of thousands of people to flee.”
From http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-us-canada-41060671 downloaded at 1830z/26 August 2017.

I have a friend who was very concerned because her parents live in Papalote, Texas (a few miles northwest of Corpus Christi). They were unable to evacuate and forecasts called for as much as 40 inches of rain to fall during the storm period.

When I awoke this morning about 6:00, the first thing I did was check the NOAA accumulated radar. It appears that the worst has passed them and they had a total of…..drum roll……2 inches of rain!!!!

It is sometimes difficult to accurately forecast weather events which are only a few hours away.

It is always difficult to forecast the climate100 years from now, especially if you use the wrong assumptions.

But somehow, it is always “worse than we thought” when it comes to catastrophic anthropologic climate change.

When it comes to catastrophic anthropologic climate change, the science is simply not there, but the agendas are.

I am at a loss to understand how this Storm was ranked as a Category 4 Hurricane at landfall. I downloaded the data overnight from stations up the coast from Corpus Christi, and there were only 4 values for sustained windspeed at 90kts or above. The highest, 1 instance, was 96. The next 3 descending were 93, 91 and 90. It looks like the height of it was between 8:24p and 9:00.

I am very interested to know where the higher readings came from. The claim that the Hurricane-force winds extended out 30 miles from the Eye seems spurious to me, as well.

Steve, hurricane folks use a 1-minute average as their definition of sustained wind. However, observing sites use a 2-minute average in reporting sustained wind. Thus, it’s nearly an apples to oranges comparison, and looking at the actual surface observations will always be lower than the hurricane category reported.

Does the dropsonde from the aircraft spend a minute at an altitude of 30 feet ? If not can it be used to establish true wind speed ?

Also if you have 20 weather stations in close proximity, and only 2 show hurricane wind forces and the rest are well below that threshold it seems data averaging should come into play. Or can 1 station along be used to justify determining the category of a storm?

DrMOS, if we’re talking about sustained winds why should a one minute average be different from a two minute average? The storm isn’t moving that fast. Is that because a gust, which shouldn’t be part of the sustained calculation, makes a bigger error in the one minute average?

ScarletMacaw … A very strong wind (say 130 mph) has a better chance of sustaining itself over a 1-minute time interval than over a two minute time interval, much in the same way a gust to 150mph has a better chance of surviving a 10-second interval than a 1-minute interval. So when looking to find the highest sustained wind among many stations over time to justify a hurricane category, there’s simply a better chance of finding a higher 1-minute sustained wind somewhere than a 2-minute sustained wind. That’s why they can’t really be compared, though I’ve seen estimates that would suggest a peak 1-minute wind would be about 15% higher than a peak 2-minute wind. If all the 1-minute & 2-minute sustained winds were to be averaged over time and at many stations they would likely come out to be the same, but the 1-minute winds would have a higher variance.

Perhaps someone needs to ask NHC formally for an explanation of the disconnect between their rating as CAT 4 and land based wind speed measurements. The divergence seems to be much more than it should be.

My condo is on the beach in padre island corpus christi….im receiving reports of minimal damage with no flooding. This was about 10 miles south of the eyewall. I’m counting my blessings right now….however they are predicting major rainfall and flooding. ..this report seems contrary to a cat 4 hurricane. Storm surge was predicted to be 5 to 7 feet above grade…..

And so many global warming enthusiasts are trying so very hard not to claim this hurricane was caused by global warming. But the way they talk around it makes it quite clear. In their hearts they blame global warming, but they know how stupid it would be to make the claim. It’s very funny.

And yet, they won’t be able to help themselves. Once one starts, then comes the deluge of inanities, as each tries to outdo the others in their Alarmism. So, who’s first I wonder? Gore would be a good candidate.

Drudge has been running a headline predicting 40 inches of rain. I realize that is over a period of days and we will not know the results until sometime next week. But right now I’m not seeing it. Looking on radar it appears Harvey has moved further inland and faster than expected. This will lower accumulated rainfalls, spreading it out over a larger area.

Both for the sake of those in Harvey’s path, and because I’d love to see the hype deflated in the end, I hope these dire predictions do not come to pass.

Any advice on the best way to monitor rainfall totals going forward? There’s this, which I think only gets updated every 24 hours:

Hurricane Harvey is now downgraded from Cat4 to Cat1. Is it normal to go from Cat4 to Cat 1, or was the Cat4 rating somewhat exaggerated?

If Harvey stalls, much flooding will result – many cities in Texas are so flat that flooding is a common occurrence.

When I lived in Houston, we had several floods in the year, just from normal seasonal rainstorms. The news reports described 800-pound women being rescued when they deliberately drove their cars into flooded underpasses. The rescuers had to remove the tops of the cars to extract these behemoths.

Just a while ago on the weather channel I saw a weather lady reporting from a site of flooding in Texas .explaining how the river seen in the background was out of its banks. But wait , out of this scene of disaster emerged a lone woman jogging comfortably along the river walk . Immediately the camera was shifted to exclude the jogger from view. before she could be recorded traversing the area , Clearly the camera man knew what was necessary to “accurately” report the weather.

The eye, while not a pinhole, was pretty small (20-25 miles), so the maximum winds only covered a relatively narrow line. The beginnings of a concentric eyewall didn’t initially reduce wind speeds as per HH reports, but may have by landfall, which would’ve made Harvey Cat3 at landfall. However, air pressure in the eye had dropped to 938MB from 941MB. No way was this lower than Cat3, but Cat4 winds may not have mixed their way down to the surface by landfall. Further recordings collated after the event may confirm one way or the other, but either way, this was a major at landfall.

Fortunately, there wasn’t time for the eyewall replacement to complete by landfall, as this would’ve broadened the path of maximum winds greatly and allowed for strengthening. That’s not the ongoing problem though…

More fortune is needed to propel Harvey away, but it’s almost slowed to a stop now, with a painfully slow counterclockwise loop looking likely. Those currently on the west of Harvey, e.g. Corpus Christi, haven’t escaped the rains. Even if Harvey goes far enough inland for its winds to weaken, and half an hour ago it was just holding onto hurricane status (small eyes spin up quickly and can spin down just as quickly, never mind when over land), all that rain still has to go somewhere.

If you’re in the area, now would be the time to get out of your basement shelters and, depending on the topography where you live, take your prized possessions upstairs.

Windfinder shows the Copano Bay airport, where Harvey came ashore, readings topped out with gusts to 110mph with sustained at 74mph. All the nearby airports are in the same neighborhood. Once again NOT a Cat 3-4.

indfinder shows the Copano Bay airport, where Harvey came ashore, readings topped out with gusts to 110mph with sustained at 74mph. All the nearby airports are in the same neighborhood. Once again NOT a Cat 3-4.

Confirmed by NDBC station CPNT2 at Copano Bay at 0224 on August 26. Maximum sustained winds recorded as the Harvey eye wall passed over the anemometer recorded 37.1 meters per second (72 knots)
That’s Category 1.
Photos of surface damage over most areas are consistent with a Category 1 storm. Recorded time plots of the data from this station clearly show the response of the wind speeds as the eye passed directly over this station.

There is one NDBC station (ANPT2 at Aransas Pass) with anemometer height of 14 meters above sea level that shows winds at Category 2.
Sustained wind speeds were over 40 meters per second for several hours with maximum of 49.4 meters per second at 0142. This station data is unusual in that no other NDBC stations show anything similar during the storm. There may have been a single storm band that did satisfy Category 2 criteria. So far I am unable to confirm any photos of surface damage near this station.

At any rate, there is no surface wind data or land based damage photos that support the claims of Harvey being anything more than a very small Cat 2 hurricane. Widespread real time videos at the time of the storm show palm tree flagging consistent with Category 1 winds. Obviously, some photos of damaged structures are cherry picked to give the impression that there was wider damage from sustained winds.
History should show that the media hype and NHC models claiming Category 4 status are not verified by authentic surface data and observations.
Hurricane Harvey of 2017 was certainly NOT a major hurricane at landfall.

“It’s over” These are also the words of a Houston area NPR reporter this morning wrt the worst of the storm from Harvey. This was definitely NOT the message “Weekend Edition” host Scott Simon wanted to hear. So he kept fishing.

When, exactly, was Harvey downgraded from “3” to “1”? If before landfall, the “drought” is not over, right? (Don’t want to minimize the flooding threat, but…) isn’t the massive flooding primarily a result of the storm surge which keeps the inland rains from draining out to sea? Last report of winds were 80 mph and fading.

The forecaster made a call based on three measuement systems you neglected.
Its not a LIE to say : I base my call on radar.
its not too much to allow people to do their job in real time and not accuse them of lying as you did.

Of course after the dust settles they can look at all the records and revise their estimate.

dont be a clown just because you didnt check the same data the forecaster beven did

There is a big difference between questioning the characterization or rating of a storm and accusing someone outright of lying. The first is an academic/scientific disagreement – at worst. The latter is an attack on someone’s character. It is a falsehood to state my comments as an attack on anyone’s character. That is your, inaccurate, characterization. Then, when I juxtapose your apparently contradictory comments, you engage in an ad hominem attack by intentionally insulting me. The academic/scientific issue of the classification of a storm has now become a test of manhood, apparently, on your part.

Your first unjustified accusation that “noaa lies” was in response to an innocuous comment I made on August 25, 2017 at 8:00 pm in which I was merely reporting the data from station ANPT2 as the hurricane was making landfall. What started as an academic exercise, you quickly turned into a personal attack.

I won’t go any further, due to the severity of the storm. I will repeat, however, what I said before: I am not pretending to minimize the danger or harm that a Hurricane like Harvey can/will cause to human beings and/or property. Let’s just leave it at that.

I closely followed Irene and Sandy on the east coast. Wind speeds (not predictions) reported were waay higher than anything I could find from NWS stations and independent stations yet there was a lot of chatter claiming I was wrong. I just followed the data/readings. Seemed I was all alone in simply looking at the recorded readings at the 10 meter standard level and 1 minute time criteria. Nice to see many others doing what I was doing. I haven’t had time to follow Harvey but would not be surprised to see the same thing happen.

Rain/flooding is a major issue with these big storms and the topography of the areas effected. In a flat region like E. Texas everyone will get some basically static flooding, a real pain in the ass. But in a more hilly region those in the lower areas get higher water levels with the associated destruction of the velocity pressure of the flowing water and pile driving debris. The areas effected are not proportionally clobbered. Texas does not discriminate with regards to its water distribution! (Please don’t hop on the flooding wagon with regards to Katrina unless you first justify a submarine with screen doors and windows.)

Anyway, I doubt that any of the buildings with a hip roof suffered a collapse from wind. With the possible hyping of a Cat 4 storm and if the final observations in the direct hit of the eye shows relatively little wind damage I doubt that many will be very concerned with the next approach of a Cat 4 or less. If that occurs and it is a true Cat 4 with Andrew-like destruction, then it would suggest that hype kills. An honest assessment of the storms rating and the proven flooding would show a storms potential for damage at a lower classification. Leave the hype out. We have enough of that in other areas of reporting.

Cherry picked photos of weak structures do not make Harvey a major hurricane. There was a narrow band of sustained winds in the area of Aransas that were at Category 2 for about 4 hours. Many real time videos at different places around the storm show palm tree flagging generally consistent with Category 1 winds

It amazes me that people in the hurricane and tornado areas of the USA continue to build with wood-frame construction, which is so easily destroyed by high winds and flooding.

In the mid-1990’s, I designed and patented an Insulating Concrete Form (ICF) System called Advantage Wallsystems. http://www.advantageicf.com/

I no longer have any interest, financial or otherwise, in this product or company, but want to point out the advantages of ICF Systems. An ICF structure can be built with concrete floor and ceiling decks and steel shutters to survive most natural disasters. The polystyrene foam is closed-cell, so it will also survive a flood – interior finishing materials such as drywall must of course be replaced. Moving valued possessions to the second floor should preserve them in most flood situations – if your second floor floods, you are building in the wrong location.

The primary benefit of this particular ICF system is that it is stronger and can sustain much higher concrete pour heights than most other ICF products – it also has features than enable ease of use.

When Texas rebuilds, will they simply use stick-built construction that will be destroyed by the next natural disaster, or will they employ ICF construction that can survive floods, hurricanes and tornadoes?

Sustained winds recorded by NDBC shore stations and photos of land damage show that Harvey was NOT a major hurricane. History should show that Harvey of 2017 was a Category 1 hurricane with one narrow band of Category 2 winds that lasted about 4 hours at landfall on August 26