Sometimes, I come across info I want to share to you but am afraid to because I think it will be a big fat jinx. Jinxes are ridiculous, but I bet you know how I feel. Today, with trepidation, I err on the site of full disclosure.

The other day, I noticed that Brian Burke’s very interesting website Advanced NFL Stats has had the Texans ranked #1 for the last two weeks with their “advanced” statistical method. “Advanced” defined by the site means, “real statistical methods–regression, tests of significance, game theory, simulation and other advanced techniques.” You might say well, how can these numbers be advanced if they rank the Texans #1 despite losing three games? He’s focusing on factors that predict winning FUTURE games.

I found the #1 Texans ranking over let’s say the Packers curious, so I asked Brian about it, and this was his response:

The reason the Texans are rated ahead of the Packers is primarily due to their respective defense. Their net defensive pass efficiency is 5.3 Net YPA, 4th best in the league behind BAL, DET, and PIT. GB’s is 7.0 net YPA, 8th worst in the league. Yes, GB’s offense is scorching hot, but the differences in the two team’s respective defenses is larger than the differences between their offenses.

Also, HOU has so far had a slightly tougher strength of schedule than GB.

The numbers liked HOU’s offensive performance against JAX last week. JAX has a very good and underrated pass defense. HOU has been able to sustain solid offensive output without Andre Johnson in the lineup, except against BAL.

We’ve got HOU winning the AFC South with a 92% probability right now. They’ve got a 95% chance of making the playoffs overall and a 57% chance of getting a 1st round bye. They’re finally going to do it.

I put these numbers up today because who knows if they stay this way after the game. Will say that they are similar to what a lot of what the number people are saying. That’s what happens when you have credible offense, defense and special teams. But like most NFL teams, the wins are precarious. The Texans, like other teams, have already lost playmakers to injury, which starts challenging depth and reduces your margin for error.*

If you want to complain about Brian’s numbers, I suggest poking around his site a bit and learning more about them before commenting. Very interesting posts there.

Game Day Comment Post.

I will be at the game today, so with traffic it makes it challenging to put up a timely post. That and I’m tired after games, already know what I think of it, and am curious as to your thoughts. So I like commenting on your comments–like the world’s biggest fun sports bar.

It’s been my experience that the best game day blog posts are driven by comments. Tell me what your questions are. Things you thought were interesting. Things that might have only shown up on the TV version that I might not have seen. Things that you saw at the stadium of note to others. Or just use the comments to vent or enthuse. Blog posts are time capsules of thoughts and events of a particular day. Sometimes it is interesting to look back at them.

Today the Texans will be honoring service members in a variety of activities related to their “Salute to the Military Day.” In the meantime, for those who can’t be at the game, here’s front row of the Bull Pen video of the Texans Cheerleaders of 2010 on SttM Day.

* You see what I did there. I can’t even write without trying to write protecting against jinx. I will pretend jinxes do not apply to this post because: 1. These are just numbers that would exist whether or not I shared them. This isn’t some sort of subjective observation that is a certain jinx. 2. I put the appropriate caveat with this as it relates to significant injuries; 3. By acknowledging a jinx, it takes away its power. Yes I know that thinking this way is very odd, but I’m a Houston sports fan, so I’m guessing you understand.