X Factor 2015: Judges’ Houses ‘Overs’ – French Kiss or French Toast?

Posted by Daniel

Cowell managed first and second place with his Overs in 2014, hot on the heels of Sam Bailey’s win the previous year. He didn’t seem so enthusiastic about their prospects this time – cursing when initially told the public had decreed they were to be his responsibility again. He’d apologised long before taking the final six to a haunted French Chateau.

As with the girls, boys and groups, treatment so far has suggested to us a clear top two in producers’ minds. Guessing on the gamma who also makes the live shows feels like a three-horse race. However, we’re prepared for at least the occasional surprise at judges’ houses this weekend. Here’s how we read the Overs up till now.

Suggested Alpha: Anton Stephans
Current Odds: 16/1

We were highly encouraged by Anton’s arena audition, which showcased an extrovert personality we felt viewers would relate to. That was given particular prominence at the six chair challenge, when the Londoner was given a whole segment between ad breaks to himself. No one else was granted greater coverage during this phase.

Before he started singing, Anton was setup to give an extended “botox” joke at Cowell’s expense. He had also come out with a pre-song gag at boot camp, comparing Simon to God. These moments not only show us Anton’s good humour, but signal a joshing relationship between mentor and mentee that we think will become a feature of this category.

Every time Simon continues on a theme of Anton “pulling silly faces” and going “crazy”, he allows the session singer to come back with a heartfelt plea of how much it all means to him. Most contestants offer this spiel, but no one wears their heart on their sleeve more effectively than Anton – he’s tailor-made for an initially prominent role in the live shows.

Suggested Beta: Jennifer Phillips
Current Odds: 25/1

Jennifer looks like another clear choice for the lives based on her treatment so far. Her excellent, powerful vocals have been given a chance to shine at each stage of the process. Like Anton, she’s fun and full of personality. Cowell said of her on last Sunday’s Xtra Factor: “I think she could be my favourite. She is a diva and we love divas.”

On singing ability alone, she could go far in the competition, and thus take over the alpha role in this category. Our one concern, and the reason why we’ve placed her behind Anton at this stage, is the sense that producers haven’t given her a USP for the live shows that Anton’s more voluble character brings.

Suggested Gamma: Bupsi
Current Odds: 150/1

The race to be gamma over is very much open to debate. We think Bupsi may bely her outsider status and make it to the lives for the following reasons: Simon has never hidden his love for her; and the show is in need of a few fun acts to provide variety. Bupsi first showed her ability to go along with such a role when declaring “I’ll show you nasty” in the Saturday pimp slot for the second weekend of arena auditions.

Bupsi’s main selling point is the energy she brings to the stage. She upstaged Jennifer Phillips and Bekln with her moves during their group boot camp performance, and her backward “running man” delighted the audience at the six chair challenge. If there’s a sense of her sexy/fun dance moves wearing a little thin already, that’s no problem for a gamma over, only intended to be in the live shows for a week or two to provide the occasional laugh.

Suggested Delta: Ebru Ellis
Current Odds: 100/1

Ebru got just over a minute of screentime for her arena audition – more than Mason Noise’s notorious 47 seconds – but hardly a ringing endorsement. Ebru was also part of a quickfire set of clips for her individual bootcamp performance, where she suffered from nerves like those aired around her, in a segment intended to provide a contrast for the far more confident Mason Noise.

But just as her captioned surname had changed from Gursoy to Ellis, so her treatment was transformed in the six chair challenge. Having performed ‘If I Were A Boy’ in the pimp slot, Rita said she could listen to a “whole album” of hers, and Cheryl praised her “star quality”. Simon dampened the mood by explaining he didn’t like the first part of the song, but like his comment about Anton being “crazy”, this was setting up the suspense of whether she’d be offered a seat. It’s hard to tell if that was Ebru’s moment in the sun, or if producers have decided her face fits for the lives.

Suggested Omega: Kerrie-Anne Phillips
Current Odds: 80/1

Kerrie-Anne is the shortest price of the gamma candidates in the outright market. That doesn’t reflect her treatment up till now which has been pretty cursory: her arena audition got a similar amount of screentime as Ebru; she was barely sighted at boot camp; and whilst she had her Nan present and a short VT intro for the six chair challenge, it still didn’t compare to that afforded most of her rivals.

“She’s good … she’s classy,” Simon said at the end of her rendition of ‘Help’. One thing we will say in her favour is that she potentially looks the part. Which could be apt, because a Fleur East-style breakout at judges’ houses may be what it takes to make the live shows. That, or a decision by producers to give a place to someone afforded very little airtime as a way of making them easily disposed of in the first week or two.

Suggested Zeta: Max Stone
Current Odds: 100/1

We like Max’s voice. And he could potentially be the only White Guy With Guitar in the whole competition. But Simon made such a big play of Max’s apparent lack of personality at the six chair challenge, that we’d be surprised if the Svengali did a volte face and decided to take him to the live shows. The redemption of being brought back at audience insistence there will probably be his finest moment of the competition.

How are you reading the overs, and what else are you anticipating from the unprecedented live studio reveals of the final three in each category? Will Sunday’s show end with the girls, and all attention on Louisa Johnson – or with the boys, and Simon Cowell theatrically storming off set after Grimmy controversially puts Mason Noise through? Do let us know your theories before all is revealed.

I reckon both Anton and Jennifer are going to come storming out of the blocks in the week 1 voting, both comfortably in the Top 5. They are both the type of act who are known to have done well with the voting public, especially in the early weeks. Remember Tesco Mary topping the vote in week 1 of 2010?

I’m not sure Simon is bothered, at this stage, which one of them will progress further, just as long as neither of them end up winning. Having said that, I think Jennifer will end up being a great back-to-lay, and her odds on Betfair have looked big for a while. I think her price should be much closer to Anton’s. Simon’s ego will probably allow both of them a pimp slot in the lives, at some point. Never underestimate the Overs.

To be honest I think that I’ve probably got about as much chance of winning this as Anton or Jennifer. That’s bearing in mind that 1 I can’t sing and 2 I’m not actually in the competition. They are probably the best singers, and the most professional – which is probably the benefit of twenty odd years in the music industry – but to cut to the chase neither offer any proposition of commercial success on a scale that would be attractive to Simon. The best possible outcome should one of them win would probably be one album with low sales and then being bombed out. Of course it’s possible that the same might happen if Louisa or 4th Impact were to win but at least they offer the possibility of long term commercial success if they can get it right. After the last couple of years I think this is what Simon will be aiming for even if it means being complicit in scuppering his own acts to get the result.
I’m in agreement with Tim B that they may start well, and with Jennifer as a possible back to lay proposition, but I don’t think they’ll be bothering the finalists.

Agreed – both are vote magnets. They’ll probably get average comments to keep them rolling along but to keep their vote under control. If we see them getting bad treatment its probably as hes doing too well in the voting and needs a de-ramp.

I think, of Anton and Jennifer, Anton will be more of a Maloney – ride the wave and have to be dragged down, wheras Jennifer may be more lower down the scale. As the weeks go by, her vote will tail off naturally.

Is there any merit to the idea that Jennifer and Kerri-Anne won’t both get through because they won’t want two black women called Phillips in the same category? Or indeed, in the same show.

It’s part of the reason I can see Ebru going in over Bupsi – or, I could, if she didn’t look so much like Louisa – they tend to like diversity in a category.

Although having said that, there is precedent for casting contestants with the same USP for the live shows that you’d think would split the vote – Sam Bailey’s year, when Sharon’s overs were all curvy, big-voiced ‘diva’ ladies. As long as they work hard to nobble the less favoured one – probably Ebru, if she were to go through – they shouldn’t have a problem on their hands. They could even try and build up a personality for Louisa that way, or a story of sorts – by showing her off as ‘better than Ebru’ for the first few shows by sticking Ebru in unflattering clothes and giving her bad song choices.

All in all I’m pretty excited about this series, the cast seems stronger than in the last few years and I’m not sure there’s a clear cut winner yet, even though there’s a few clear frontrunners.

I think you have a point with the Ebru/Louisa theory. Last year both Overload Generation and Stereo Kicks sang Katy Perry songs in week 1 and OG were criticised while SK were praised. The same strategy could be done with Ebru and Louisa.

I also agree that the cast this year is the strongest since 2011 in my opinion. There’s a lot of diversity and I can see it being a lot more open this year in terms of who will win since the most favoured ones this year are all risks regarding how the public will take to them (4th Impact, Seann, Louisa). There also doesn’t seem to be a “traditional winner” type although I think Kiera could be a dark horse in that sense.

I’m expecting Ebru as well.
Name change to sound more anglicised – tick.
Pimp slot on 6 chair challenge – tick.
Secret weapon (sometime member of London Community Gospel Choir – damn they’ve been fishing in a small pool this year eh?) – tick.

It has been a long drawn out process to get to the next two nights. Some of it was borderline watching paint dry and very predictable, no wonder viewing figures low.

Bupsi is worth an ew at the odds and for what it worth 4th Power or whatever they called now could go a long long way so current odds could seem very generous on Monday. Chloe Paige if got through could be a dark horse so worth a small bet pre show tonight.

Girls likely last tomorrow night but could easily be the boys and Sean!

Jennifer gets really positive treatment then. She’s a really difficult contestant to gauge because while she’s incredibly talented you know that she simply will not have a career in pop, and Simon and the producers will know that too.

No conscience, no empathy, no remorse. A liar and deceiver. It uses people and it loves of things (it should be the other way around). Setting people up for destruction and taking pleasure in it. If the x factor was a person (and it or the entity which owns it is probably a person in law) it would be a psychopath.

Haha, yes, let’s all feel sorry for Simon Cowell. In reality, didn’t you think this was a really easy way out for the judges tonight? Breaking the news one-on-one seems much harder – and makes better TV too in my opinion!

Quite surprised they didn’t alternate it – name an act going through, name an act not going through, till you’re left with two on the stage for the final place. Would have spun it out for longer and given the losers at least a bit of dignity with a closing few words with Olly and Caroline.

That would have been better. Without them actually performing the live element was pointless and a negative rather than a positive. I get that they’re trying something new to revitalise the show but they don’t seem to have thought this through.

Yeah Andrew, I agree with that. For example, sending Jennifer home was clearly meant to be a big shock, but because Simon didn’t directly send her home, and also there was no interview after, it just didn’t feel like a big moment in the same way other shock judge’s house rejections have been in the past.

I think it’s a little unacceptable that we’re sitting here telling Simon Cowell and the X Factor producers how TV is supposed to be done! They’re way off their game!

Anyone remember the “passion test” they used to have in Masterchef quarter-finals years ago, where the contestants had to persuade John and Gregg how much they wanted it? That was excruciatingly demeaning, this was even worse!

Yes and like this it had zero bearing on an outcome that was decided before it took place. They definitely lost some of the dramatic impact of the decisions but we’ve seen the usual JH scenario played out so many times that I quite enjoyed the change. At least we didn’t have to suffer the “I’ve got bad news…(pause)…. you’re coming to the lives” type comments that they never get tired of delivering.

Cowell clearly has no intention of diversifying into the gospel market with all of the acts associated dumped from the lives. Sticking to the middle of the road tut that has made him his fortune. Felt sorry for Jennifer. Not my cup of tea musically at all but her 6 chair performance was amazing and losing out to Bupsi must have been a choker. More proof than ever that it’s a light entertainment show rather than a singing competition. The only problem for us punters is trying to guess to how brazen about this the producers are willing to be.

The begging was very distasteful. We were spared the close-up “this is the moment his heart actually breaks” shot which normally comes with one to one announcements but tbh I would have preferred that.

I was surprised Jennier didn’t go through but others have expressed doubts. Is Max planned to be early fodder? I’m not sure who his audience is. Bob Marley and Coolio are not current. If he was doing tracks like Mason in his Max style he might appeal to tptb more but as it is I don’t think he’ll be around long.

Re Jennifer, could it be as simple as Cowell’s comment to Louis after she’d performed, “I’ve never seen her so nervous and that worries me”? Ultimately they want people they can rely on to keep it together on live TV.

Max does offer a feelgood underdog narrative, at least for the early weeks.

It seems like there has been one “shock” per category so far: Max going through instead of Jennifer and the less-exposed Reggie N Bollie(?) going through over the two gospel groups – especially BEKLN.

I think the Boys category is the most difficult to call. I’d say Seann is a dead cert. Ben seems the least likely to go through but may be easy fodder in the early weeks. Che and Simon are threatening in regards to the public vote yet are traditional XF powerhouse vocalists… If I was Nick, I’d put through Seann, Mason and Josh but I really can’t call it. I’d say Seann and Mason are most likely through. Will Mason be called third and be treated as a “shock” or will that be somebody else? I’m so confused!!

Funny. I thought Reggie and Bolliee were the obvious choice. I think Sean, Che and Mason are the obvious choices for the boys. I thought Simon was poor while Ben and Josh were a boring and forgettable.

Think you’re right and it gives a nice balance to the acts. Max going through for me puts Ben and Simon out. My only question would be about Che. Could he suffer the same fate as Jennifer? It wouldn’t surprise me. Get rid of him as a threat to Louisa. Josh going through would also give a nice balance to the acts and I think could be managed out of the competition easier.

I glance at DS from time to time but it’s very quiet over there now. I think a lot of their posters must have gone to twitter or just quit. We have the odd row over here but DS used to be a total bear pit. I started my trolling career in the Big Brother and X Factor forums at DS. I found a link to sofabet posted there and followed it here. Probably just in time. If they could have found me they’d probably have come to my house with torches and pitchforks.

Well that’s another 21/2 hours we’re not going to get back. Whoever thought up this format needs to go back to the drawing board – or maybe just back to the old format. Far too long and barely enough in it to maintain interest, the live portion was a complete waste and got to agree that begging for the places was just painful.
The only conclusion is that Simon’s scuppered his category before the live shows have even begun. I get that Max is quite good at what he does, but he’s got absolutely no commercial potential whatsoever. It doesn’t help that he always looks like he’s in pain (or constipated). As for Bupsi, words defy me.

He’s got a bunch of potentially commercial acts in the show. I suspect he’ll be happy to see Bupsi and Max go early. Wouldn’t be surprised to see at least one of Monica or Havva get through in the girls as well.

Imo they will want to protect Alien and Mason first and foremost. They’re the acts with clear, immediate commercial potential. They don’t need to win but a top 6 and ideally a final place will be very beneficial.

Agree that the new format of the show was pretty shit. If I was in the audience I’d wonder why I bothered.

I’ve got tickets for Sunday’s show. After watching tonight’s show (I was out, so have only just seen it), I can’t see any point in being in the audience. No live performances, no entertainment, no reason to waste my time.

Interesting that the consistent theme about Alien is that their vocals are their weak point. Jess Glynne made a point about them being better with a specific lead vocalist (anyome for the new Pussycat Dolls). Are we about to see a journey? Could well be a plan.

I don’t like the lead vocalist thing for groups, unless they play instruments, which is not XF. I think Alien are fine. They all sing as well as Katy Perry or Rihanna or Taylor Swift… These mega stars can be quite painful live…
And to relate to successful groups, even Cheryl and Louis got their parts to sing as Girls Aloud and 1D always shared vocals.

Wow, what a shower of absolute shit. The only good thing to come out of last night is that Reggie and Bollie actually did go through – wasn’t expecting it and I’m pleased.

Did anyone get the impression Simon did legit change his mind? I do think Jennifer was supposed to go through all along, but for some reason decided to put Max through. I actually think Max is Simon’s best chance at getting to the final – Bupsi was hilarious last night and I hope we get at least a few weeks from her, but obviously her days are numbered. Anton is good but dated and I think his performance style is far too creepy. He’s a good voice, but self indulgent and has zero commercial prospect. If they do decide to get behind Max, i do think he’d do well. His voice is interesting, he’s creative with song choice and arrangement and he could get a good journey story if they let him. Either way he’s lucky to have landed Simon as his mentor, none of the others are at liberty to make a snap decision like he did.

The boys I actually thought all did really well. So refreshing to see actual decent song choices for once. Seann was phenomenal, that song was great for him and ‘a woman’s work’ is Nick’s favourite song of all time. I loved Simon for singing ‘Too Lost In You’. It seemed like they killed Mason a bit – all his spark was gone, but I suppose to viewers he seemed humbled and appreciative to be there and actually did justify it with his performance. I don’t think there’d be outrage if he went through. Che isn’t for me – good but didn’t blow me away, Josh probably won’t go as he’s been overshadowed by Mason now and I think Ben stands as much chance of going through as I do. Seann/Che/Mason for me, with Simon an unlikely third if they don’t have the guts to go Mason.

I don’t think Simon changed his mind. I think that was smoke and mirrors to give the impression something was happening (and make it seem like Jenny nearly got there to diffuse potential criticism). Cheryl did similar when she made some comment about having seen some new things and was struggling to make up her mind. It was as scripted as a bomb countdown in a movie imo.

I agree about Anton. He doesn’t seem to know when to shut up. It would be very easy to present him as annoying or, as you say, a bit creepy and weird.

Alien’s first couple of phone votes will determine their fate I think. If they have potential the comments will suddenly start to be about how their vocals have become really good through hard work and how they appear to have become tighter as a group. Weak votes and they’ll get thrown under the bus.

That was a NASTY decision by “Simon” last night. Max through instead of Bupsi, yeah whatever, fair enough. But both Max and Bupsi through over Jennifer is just plain harsh. It’s effectively Simon nobbling his own category, which he clearly doesn’t mind doing. It would’ve taken a lot to bring down both Anton and Jennifer, and now they only have Anton to worry about. Bupsi will be out next week and they can just “Jack Walton” Max at any point during the lives.

If you add Jen to the 3 who made it she’d be my second biggest green among the 4 and yet I don’t care that she was dropped. Her dreadful sense of styling with the mini skirt and clown make-up and her dreadful choice of song. Of course they would style her and chose her songs but I just thought for the first time yesterday that she wasn’t an attractive prospect for Saturday nights.

I think Simon might well have decided to drop her “last minute”. Not yesterday as he might have said but on the day of her JH.

Agree the styling was horrendous but they will have had make up artists and stylists on site. It would have been a small thing to fix that. I was amazed they allowed her to go on looking the way she did at 6 chair.

Looking at Facebook likes (I know it’s not scientific but it’s a good indicator of where the support is) the post saying 4th Impact are through to the lives seems to have the most from the groups.

For the overs, the posts of who went through are all pretty low, but with Bupsi the lowest. The post following Max’s performance got more than the rest of the overs’ (which could well be behind the ‘change of mind’).

Interestingly, of the boys’ performance posts, Josh has the most likes by miles. Currently 4.9k, vs 2.3k for Che and 2k for Seann. Simon has the lowest.

Are they? You have a fair point regarding the Overs (although there wasn’t really a “current” act in the final 6 Overs) but with the Groups, 4th Impact, Alien and RnB are the three groups that cater the most to the younger generation. If they wanted to give Louisa the best chance of picking up the young vote, surely they’d opt for the two gospel groups and a “dated” boyband? 😉

I’m going by the assumption that at this point if louisa don’t poll well in the opening few shows that they would be happy for seann or 4th impact to win. And my assumption also sees alien as being disposed of in the first few weeks. It wouldn’t take much to get them out at all

I don’t understand why the producers would want to dispose of Alien? I doubt that they’d be a threat in the public vote, they’re dancers so will provide a lot of typical Saturday Night Entertainment and, most importantly, they are commercially viable. If it came down to them and either Louisa, 4th Power or Seann in the bottom two one week, I’d assume they’d be reluctantly disposed of then but other than a situation like that, I think the producers will try to support them as much as they can.

Does anyone else think we could be in for a 2011-style “shock” with the Girls tonight? This JH format is reminiscent of the week 1 live show in 2011 where bookies’ favourite Amelia Lily got the boot from Kelly. The Girls were conveniently the last category to be decided on that year and they will be the last category again this year. Although, having said that, the lack of one-on-one decisions with this format (unlike when Amelia and Sophie were the last remaining girls on stage) will mean there’s less emotional impact (as has been mentioned already on here). Plus 5 of the 6 girls have been given extensive airtime so there are bound to be shocks regardless. I’m thinking it will be Louisa, Kiera and Monica going through (Monica isn’t a threat to Louisa and her hard image could provide a lot of entertainment). There is the argument that Monica is being set up for an emotional second rejection but that pushes the question – “do we care?” If we were supposed to, surely she’d be getting a far more emotional edit than she’s gotten so far?

On a different note, if Max has been chosen with the intention to be disposed of early – surely one judge will have to play the role of “not getting” him much like Cheryl did last year with Jay James. Simon can’t blatantly take down his own act. Nick was backing Max for the final place in Simon’s category. I can’t remember Cheryl or Rita’s opinions on him to be honest. But with him being a typical vote-getting act (white guy with guitar, solid voice, back story about being insecure, getting a hard time from Simon at bootcamp which would have encouraged a substantial amount of sympathy from viewers), for his vote to be kept under control, there will need to be a mouthpiece on the panel spouting all sorts of negativity about him.

I wouldn’t hesitate at putting him as top over. With simon’s liking for an act in the final, I think Max is the most likely to fly with voters.

My prediction depends on tonight. If Simon Lynch is allowed through, I think he’ll do well but it doesn’t seem likely at this point. After the shit show of last night I can’t begin to predict who the third girl will be, I’m gonna hold off until tomorrow.

I’m in two minds – surely Max would be the last contestant the producers would want to win the show and surely the producers know after 10 years worth of mistakes about how to take down an undesirable contestant? But then, with possibly no other act filling that very popular niche, and with all of the points I made in my previous post, could he run away with the vote or at least be a comfortable and consistent top 3 placer? Also, as I’ve discussed on here before, will Simon want to participate in yet another final with one of his own acts still competing? Bupsi will be early-week fodder and would they really want to go the Sam Bailey route with Anton i.e. let him surge in the vote and have him as a “feel good” winner despite next to no commercial prospects? Surely it is a case of either letting him fly or making him sink?

Edit: Obviously my last point is based on the assumption that Anton does very well in the vote due to his emotional editing thus far.

On the basis of those performances I can’t see Louisa winning. If I were choosing the three to go through on those performances I’d have Chloe, Lauren and Louisa but Louisa would be the gamma. The others have so much more personality and passion and it shows. Seventeen is very young. I have to question song choice. What idiot thought a privileged 17 year old white girl would really connect and shine performing a song that is essentially a response to racial oppression?

Don’t look to far into it, performancewise she nailed it and the bookies odds are moving fast. Dunno but I think she may do it. Especially as Simon isn’t going through. The way I see it is there isn’t much in the way of acts whos votes could spiral out of control and if they can get her off to a good start she would be easier to see over the line than Tamera who it was obvious from day one would not appeal to the masses

One potential difficulty I see arising is she isn’t ‘cute’. Cute goes far in a young female; see Janet Devlin, Diana Vickers, and for a contrast, Tamera. Janet and Diana could also turn their hand to ‘cool’ when needed or to spice things up, but it wasn;t their primary USP.

If Louisa is ‘cool’ from the off, fine. But making a cool person cute and unthreatening is, I think, more difficult than showing that a ‘cute’, unthreatening character actually has a surprising bit of style, edge, versatility.

That is to say, if you start cool, you have to keep it up. Will she be able to, given that she’s only 17 and doesn’t – can’t, in fact, what experience can she have of life? – have much of a further backstory apart from her stage school and her school and her friends.

I think the potential is there. She’s come across as quite cool so far, but never in a threatening way. She’s always dressed relatively casually, never heavily done up in make up or anything but still looks great. I think her personality is quite vulnerable and endearing – to say she’s not the sharpest pencil in the case would be quite polite and I think that can be played upon where “cute” in concerned.

I think she’s a decent prospect to be honest. Her audience reaction was strong last night, all the contestants looked happy for her to be through and she was running all over the place hugging people and whatnot. It shows that’s she’s genuinely kind and supportive, something not many of the other contestants were doing.

I don’t dislike her. She’s very pretty and quite possibly very shy offstage (a combination which can easily be misinterpreted as arrogance). At the moment I find her a bit dull and her singing good but not great. She definitely needs a standout moment but the competition is fierce. Fifth Element will make every week a stand out moment and Alien will always be visually impressive unless they’re made to sit on bar stools and sing Frank Sinatra. Che’s vocals are also likely to be exceptional every week. The main reason she’s favourite, in my opinion, is tptb support. I suppose the question is whether or not you believe that’s enough to get her over the line.

There isn’t really a default winner in the line up this year. One of these twelve is going to win, and whoever it is will need a good degree of producer support to get that across the line. I think that there are a few acts whoare in with a chance, but equally I think that TPTB could stop any of these acts if they wanted to do so. At the moment it’s not clear how they’re going to play it, but so far Louisa seems to be most favored.

There were three things I saw last night which make me question Louisa and support Lauren (apart from the jumper comment which was so very human).

1. She rehearsed her first line to herself before performing. She knew she had a flaw and found a way to overcome it on her own. Shows she’s doing the work and has more to give. Huge plus to tptb as a future artist and also means she is unlikely to fluff it because of nerves.

2. Her reaction when announced as going through. Caroline asked the 3 girls how they felt. She asked Louisa first (no surprise – show wants to establish her as primary) and she beamed and said something. Asked Lauren next and Lauren beamed more broadly than Louisa and screamed “Mum I did it”. Keira then copied Lauren when she screamed ” Grandma I did it”. I have no recollection of what Louisa said.

3. On xtra factor the 3 girls came in for an interview with Rochelle. Louisa led them in (quelle surprise) and Lauren and Keira were meant to follow. Lauren waited until Louisa was ahead of her before she followed so it looked like a separate entrance. Louisa looked behind her and turned her attention on Lauren, she also sort of bent over and looked awkward. It looked like Lauren was the star and that Louisa had made a mistake. She also looked fab in her jumpsuit and heels and was by far the most relaxed and appeared to be the alpha of the three during the interview.

It’s not beyond the realms of possibility. I know I’ve not taken her seriously up to now, I do think her commercial prospects are pretty poor outside of the show, but she could be quite popular with the voters, purely because she’s naturally Quite Nice.

We’ve been comparing her to Laura White/Lola etc. but could she be more of a Stacy Solomon? Apart from the obvious Essex thing, they’re quite similar in that they have powerful voices but not much identity, they’re endearing personality and they have a similar rags-to-riches/doing good for the family story. Lauren was pimp slotted last night. I think she’ll outlast Keira at least.

Well it was a bit of a fan girl post, I admit, but the reality is that none of the 3 girls has a particular musical identity or style. I’ve got no idea why ppl are tipping Louisa as having great commercial potential. I’d bet a kidney she doesn’t write her own songs. There’s no USP.

Mason, Alien, FI, to a lesser extent Che; they all have a clearly identifiable uniqueness. Louisa’s a pretty girl who can do a good job with karaoke classics but in now way wishing to be rude, so what? She might go down a storm at the Stoke Poges Bonfire Night After Party or at your cousin’s second wedding but right now I really can’t see her going beyond the first album. Alexandra Burke is making a great living and probably having a great time touring with The Bodyguard but that aint a pop star.

Lauren has now come in from 7-1 for top girl to 9-2. Interesting that last night Keira was 18-1 to win while Lauren was 10-1 but Keira was lower odds than Lauren for top girl. That has now changed and Keira is highest price as top girl and to win.

The thing I noticed with Louisa is that everybody – crowd and contestants, seemed a lot happier with her going through than anyone else across this weekend. Suggests she’s nice, if nothing else I suppose.

Her performance was my favourite tonight. I’m gobsmacked Lauren Murray got through – i never once considered that she’d end up on the live shows.

I know. I’ve committed the cardinal sin. I’ve become a fan. But then again if she’s done that to me…. Of course there are issues with her. She seems vulnerable to pressure but it was noteable that she found a way to help with that when she mentally rehearsed her first line before performing in LA.

Her biggest problem, imo, will be lack of tptb support and likely deramping. I think she’s as good a singer as, and on her best best day better than, the other two.

I think joke acts are for when the others are only singers. This year with Fifth Element, Alien, Reggie and Bollie and maybe Mason too you have some all round performers. Bupsi is there too, albeit probably not for very long.

Anyway

*stamps foot*

I don’t care. I love her and love is not logical. In my mind we are already hanging out, going for coffee and wearing matching friendship bands.

Ah Jess, you poor soul. To be fair, I’d be the same if Simon Lynch was through – love is blind (or deaf in my case, anyway).

I think Lauren is endearing, but as has been mentioned, she is literally what would happen if Lola Saunders and Laura White were blended together. Looks and sound-wise. I’m amazed she got through because there isn’t really anything there apart from a nice voice. She always looks a bit frumpy, like she’s been awake for about 6 days straight and doesn’t quite know what’s happening. Her jumper comment was cute though, and I imagine you’ll get a few more weeks with her than you did with Blonde Electra last year.

Yeah. Blonde Electra…. What might have been. Mind you, as soon as they got the new haircuts things started to go wrong between us.

Imagine that. You’ve spent years trying to make it. You reach the live shows of the biggest talent show in the country. They turn you into a laughing stock, make you look ridiculous and you get booted off first show with 1% of the vote. And all you have to take away from it is a bad haircut.

Did anyone pick up on Monica’s reaction and comments? She said something like “I’m headed to the studio to write some songs”… She looked quite cheerful as well. Publishing deal in the works??? I hope so…

That lost me money tonight. I piled in based on the backstory but I think the commentary on ITV2 was on the pulse… She isn’t built to sing other people’s material. I think she’ll make a decent living from writing rather than singing. (I’d love her to get picked up by Guy Freeman’s Eurovision team though, she could be what we’re looking for in Stockholm next Spring.)

I’m having deja vu with the top 3 Girls this year. It’s 2008 – there’s a black girl who has done ballads so far up until JH but a performer is soon to emerge from her. There’s a blonde cutesy teenager who goes into the live shows as the Plan A. Then there’s a dark-haired curvy girl who has one hell of a belting voice. The dark-haired belter will meet a premature fate – shockingly exiting half way through the lives, the blonde will burn out and the public will get bored and the black singer-turned-performer will be the last Girl standing.

If its a double elim next week he could be first out with no option for a save. A lot of people were crying “fix” as soon as it was announced. In fact a lot of people were crying “fix I bet they bring Mason Noise back” as soon as Tom’s exit was announced.

I fancy Mason to have a few fans after what he did, but he sold his soul by coming back so yeah probably a good chance he could go straight away. I think he may hang around a few controversial weeks though

This series looks set for Louisa to go on and win this at her short price. I thought out of the girls who could threaten Louisa, Chloe had a similar style and looks to match, but has not gone through. No real squeaky clean boys or chaps who could Cardle their way to the win. The groups are ok, but not really threatening a victory for me and the Overs are the worst bunch for some time.

So who can really challenge Louisa? For me Che has the best chance to do so, but he is hardly going to James Arthur this competition and set his stamp on it.

We have been wrong before on faves, but it seems they cast this show all around her to give her the best possible chance.

Beware the curse of the girls category favourite. It rarely has a happy ending. A girl hasn’t won this thing since Alexandra Burke 7 years ago. The girls category has year-after-year been considered the strong category that everyone wants, and yet year-after-year it fails. The last finalist they delivered was Amelia Lily 4 years ago, and even she had to be resurrected from the dead to get there.

To be fair that is quite a simplistic way of looking at things. Janet Devlin stormed the vote in the first half of the live shows back in 2011. Without an extensive assassination, she would have most probably won. With Amelia, she was actually the favourite (with some of the bookies) to win before her original elimination. There’s not really been a curse with the girls category, it’s just that none have been particularly good or consistent over the past however many years.

That said, I remain sceptical about Louisa’s chances of winning the competition. If you’re a young female act wanting to win, I think you need to secure a “moment” in the live shows. Leona had Summertime, Alexandra had Listen in week 8 and Little Mix had Don’t Let Go (and E.T. to a lesser extent). I feel like Louisa has already peaked. I may be very wrong though. I’ve been wrong about Ebru and Josh so far!!

They tried to make Louisa have a bit of a moment yesterday with Meghan Trainor saying she felt something just happened (or words to that effect) after her performance. It didn’t though.

Personally I’m amazed they gave her that song. Aretha’s performance is so well-known and so incredible that unless you change the arrangment to John Lewis, EDM or AC/DC you’re going to invite comparisons and the greatest singers will sound mediocre by comparison. I don’t think even Whitney Houston recorded that song. It’s the musical equivalent of Michael Jordan’s basketball shirt number. Retire it.

I think Louisa is going to become very boring very quickly. She’s sung songs that aren’t original choices – Who’s Loving You, And I’m Telling You, Respect… One of the main criticisms of XF these days is that the same old songs are performed year after year. Louisa’s presence on the show doesn’t change that. Unless Rita reinvents Louisa, I can’t see her being the favourite seven weeks down the line.

The point remains – it’s usually a girl who’s the favourite, and they haven’t won for 7 years (and that was the least favoured girl in that category that year!). The reasons why that has happened are almost irrelevant – I mean maybe they’ll pull a Janet Devlin on Louisa too.

Besides, I don’t think Louisa can storm the vote in the way Janet did. She doesn’t have the assets Janet had, namely being shy, a soft singer, and Irish.

The reasons why that has happened are relevant though. You’re suggesting that the public rarely take to young female solo acts, but the likes of Janet and Rebecca contradict that. And the judges may hype the Girls category up year after year (in the same way they hyped up the incredibly dire Stereo Kicks last year) because they want a Girl to do well despite the category lacking consistency and excitement year after year. On the show, since Alex won, we had the 2009 Girls who weren’t the favoured category that year, in 2010 we had Cher and Katie who were very polarising and inconsistant (Treyc was never favoured), in 2011 Amelia’s chances suffered from being eliminated and then “unfairly” reinstated, Misha B had bully-gate and Janet was thrown under the bus multiple times. 2012 had Lucy who withdrew, Ella who was too dull and John Lewis’d every song and Jade who was also dull. 2013 had Tamera as the only favoured girl but negative press and inconsistent performances meant she rightfully got the boot. Last year was a poor show for the girls – inconsistent Lola, invisible Steph, divisive and novelty Chloe and “Omg I have to do one dance move” Lauren who lacked the wow factor. My point is, if there was a girl who was favoured who actually delivered the goods week-in-week-out (like Leona and Alexandra) then there is no reason for her not to win.

No complaints about tonight’s choices. Okay Mason looks like a fix, but the three who missed out, Simon, Ben and Josh were pretty dull and didn’t really offer anything.
Based on performances I think Louisa and Lauren were fully deserved. I’ve been impressed by Lauren, but for once credit to TPTB for making the right decision in putting her through – I half expected them to drop her just to favor Louisa. Keira deseved the third space IMO – so overall I think they got it right.

Agree about the Cardles. Because Matt Cardle was in many ways dull – he certainly wasn’t original or unique – it’s easy to forget that he is a very good singer. Much better than the three you mentioned.

There is every chance Louisa will be nuked if needs be. I look at Abi, Andrea, Janet and they’ve secured some pretty clean hits over the years. All she has to do is be sent out second with a weak song, red and black staging, the right VT and the right judges comments and she’ll be walking.

They could have even nuked Leona if they wanted. Remember Little Mix weren’t Plan A until the bus went in Janet’s direction…

They could – but why would they want to. Okay she’s not there yet, but of all the acts she is the one who might have the most commercial potential. Simon probably looks at her and sees pound signs. If they think they can get her across the line I think they’ll try as hard as they can to achieve it.

I fear for Reggie & Bollie. Twist and Shout was the wrong song for them. It was the wrong pace – not slow enough to be a grinding song (although they didn’t have any women there so it probably wouldn’t have worked unless they are more than just friends) and not fast enough to really get you moving. Cheerleader was perfect for them.

I hope Cheryl chooses their songs carefully. They will not be around for long otherwise. It’s interesting – Bupsi, Keira, Mason and R&B are probably the acts in most danger. Having said that I don’t know how much of a following Alien or Max are likely to have.

It will be useful to get some song information and have it confirmed whether or not it is a double elimination this week as well as the theme.

Oh there’s a wealth of songs Reggie & Bollie could do – I hope they stick around long enough to murder ‘Turn Me On’ by Kevin Lyttle. I bet they end up being fobbed off with ‘Tease Me’ in week one and being eliminated.

I’m really struggling with the top 12. I’d like to guess at one of R&B, Bupsi and Mason being kept around for headlines and the other two probably out first week – but with reduced live shows and double eliminations it’s so hard to predict. I think they’d be better off doing a single for the first week personally but I can’t see that happening.

I think Alien and Max could both have their fanbases as you say, but both could just as easily be disposed of. Personally I’d keep Alien round as long as possible and get rid of the disposable acts like Keira, Lauren and Anton. I think Seann will have a tough road and have to be multi-saved as far as they can get him.

Cheryl picking the songs? Aren’t we all signed up to the idea that the production team choose the songs? You’ll be suggesting that the mentors actually try to impart some wisdom onto their acts next. As if.

So the theme is “This Is Me” for Saturday, each artist performing a song (or a 2 minute edit of a song) that they feel showcases who they are as an artist (whatever the feck that means).

Is there anyone who doesn’t think Bupsi will be first out? There’s no information as to whether it will be a double or single elimination yet which is not helpful. I wish they’d just bloody announce it and have done. It’s irritating not just from a betting perspective but also as someone who enjoys the show. I want to know what’s going on, not for everything to be left till the last minute as if the daft buggers are making it all up as they go along (I know they are but couldn’t they pretend to have a clue).

On reflection I’m not sure Bupsi will be first out. If I was a casting director the person I’d want out first would be Max. I think he’s the dullest of the lot. I know he’s the WGWG but “This is me” could involve him sat there with his guitar doing a Redemption Song with bland comments in position two (following Fourth Impact singing and dancing like banshees) and memory-holed with a long advert followed by an upbeat Reggie & Bollie doing an upbeat reggae or soca number. Bupsi’s “nasty” may be a bit cringey but I find it more entertaining than Max’s schtick. He’s about 20 years too late with that.

Personally I think you’re right I’d love to see Max out on the first show and make way for the more entertaining acts, but there are still people out there who somehow still think this is a singing competition. A double elimination would bring some sort of excitement for the first show – if so I reckon two of Reggie N Bollie, Bupsi and Mason in the bottom three and one of them out finishing bottom. Treatment dependent, I wouldn’t be surprised to see one of Keira or Alien down there and out over the other “novelty” act.

I like that the theme is different but it’s still a load of old shit really. It does Max a favour really – is it a coincidence that it’s pretty much just the entire girls category who we don’t really know what their album would sound like?

It very much depends on position in the running order and treatment in terms of VT, song choice / production and judges comments. They can make or break a whole lot of acts with that. In terms of current fanbase I think Max, Alien, Reggie & Bollie and Bupsi are probably the acts in most danger. I think Keira has some fans. Her early auditions were enough to win a couple of people over. Even Mason has a bit of following, probably enough to escape being first out. With the others I’m not so sure.

Also, given the line up with a lot of potentially popular acts and a theme where we’re supposed to get a glimpse of what they will offer for the rest of the season (which should give a good indication of popularity), if I was tptb I’d be tempted to make this first one a single elimination.

The reason I’m looking at Max is because he wasn’t on anyone’s radar until the 6 chair challenge and even then Simon called him boring. The others have had a while to build up a bit of a following. I suspect Alien are very marmite but I think tptb will want to keep them and give them a chance to get some momentum.

I’m going to hold off until we see the performances though. At the moment it’s all just speculation. If they have a target (and if they do I’m presuming it won’t be one of the acts who up until now have been favoured) I think it will be pretty clear when we see the show, and at this stage of the season they will probably get them.

Yeah you’re right – in terms of having ground to make up in TV minutes, Max has the most ground to make up (followed by Reggie and Bollie) – also at two stages now it’s been made to look like Max is only there because the audience wanted him, and then by the skin of his teeth over the popular Jennifer. On the flip side it could be a nice underdog story but as you say, they’re likely to have their targets and most of the others have had at least enough coverage to see them through week one.

As a side – part of the timings this week is because Ben Haenow is performing his single on Saturday, with another two guests Sunday.

Yeah Bupsi is probably more likeable than some of the other “novelty” acts that have made it well into the competition in the past. She reminds me of Rowetta from Series 1 who practically made it to the end.

I tend to think it’s the blandest acts that will struggle so Lauren, Max and Keira would all be on my radar. Nice but dull Keira will probably cost me a fortune as I can see me backing her to be eliminated every week at good odds and she’ll no doubt stick around just to prove me wrong. I just don’t see who will like her really (like her enough to vote that is) and can see TPTB using her as a contrast to the far more commercial and favoured Louisa.

What is commercial about Louisa? I don’t see it. I can see that she’s favoured but I don’t see anything about her that suggests she’s a ready made pop star. Leona disappeared without support and Alexandra Burke is currently doing “The Bodyguard”, not releasing records. How is Louisa any different?

She’s no different to those two. That’s the point. They were both commercial too. Not so much any more but how many pop acts sustain a long career? Very few. Record companies and managers can still make a fortune out of them though.

My reasoning for calling her commercial is entirely down to her image. Im not even sure I’ve heard her sing. But she looks like she could easily replace the poster of Rita Ora thats on my 8 yr old daughters wall. Same as Tamera looked the part and was for a time the chosen one. The fact she is a talented singer is the icing on the cake.

She’s thin, she’s attractive, she will look hot cavorting with some guys in a video. Girls will want to be her, boys will want to….well you get the idea.

Spend any length of time watching the music video channels and you’ll see why Louisa is the most commercial proposition in the competition. Cowell is all over this like a rash.

I don’t think they will dump her either. I don’t think she’ll get bad treatment I think she’ll get average treatment but will just struggle to pick up votes. I wont be touching her unless she’s upwards of 10-1 to go out. I don’t necessarily think she’ll go I just think she’ll be over-priced and on that basis will be worth a small punt.

I’m looking forward to seeing which acts have had a makeover. I’m betting now that they’ll do something with Kiera’s hair if Fleur East is meant to be performing on the first live show…unless she really is completely disposable.

I think the makeovers are often a good clue to who’s favoured and who’s not – and the ‘introduction videos’ before they perform where they pose with their name. Those tell a lot about the ‘role’ each act is meant to occupy. I’m particularly looking forward to how they style each of the girls and the overs for those – I’m remembering Storm Lee here…

Che loses the baseball cap and glasses (and in a shocking twist, actually looks alright). Alien look more friendly and approachable. Max appears to be wearing exactly the same as what he was on Sunday night, and developed even more of a wonky eye.

I think Kiera is really mature looking for her age. She’s an attractive girl but she doesn’t scream pop star to me. Lauren has always looked ridiculously old to me, even before the makeover. She’s had cruise ship crooner written all over her from day 1 in my opinion and I think she’s lucky to have made it to the lives. Chloe was a much better proposition but TPTB probably felt she would dilute Louisa’s vote and didn’t want to risk it.

Anton looks a bit demonic. Or maybe all the pills he’s admitted to necking have just taken their toll.