My definition as to what I consider a scoring chance is narrow by design – I am only looking to log quality scoring chances, not every shot directed at net. I look for a shot taken in the wedge shape pattern whose point is at the goal, extending outward through the faceoff dots and around the top of the circles. There is some great work being done on the topic of shot quality and as you’ll see in the diagram below, which has the latest 2009-10 Shot Quality data from Ken Krzywicki (including how shot type is not as significant as shot angle – neat stuff), there is a method to my madness.

I superimposed the heat map from Krzywicki’s analysis onto an NHL rink diagram. A shot taken from the red area has a VERY slight chance (~3%) of being a goal scored. The green area gets a little better with ~12% going in the net, dark blue ~22% and the light blue area converting ~31% of the time. Clearly not all shots are created equal, nor are all shots directed to the net a realistic scoring chance. The best type of scoring chance? A rebound:

The goal rate for rebound shots of 32.8% is 3.7 times higher than the overall goal rate of 8.9%, indicating their high quality. Rebounds constituted 4% of all shots taken.

2009-10 NHL Shot Quality Heat Map By Ken Krzywicki

Speaking of heat, Matty Perreault was brought up from Hershey and got things going in a hurry, making his NHL debut with a +7 scoring differential and not on the ice for any of Atlanta’s goals against. I read somewhere that while Perreault may not be a future second line center he may be a better fit at this point in his career than Marcus Johansonn for a Cup run. Can’t remember where tho. I do know that one of the Original Gangstas of the MP85 Mafia will be difficult to live with for a few days. I’ll remind her one game does not a make a career, but it was a much needed spark for this Caps team.

Matt Hendricks continues to be a pleasant surprise. He is even on the scoring chance differential, does a decent job on the PK and got rewarded with some 2nd unit PP time vs. Atlanta.

Jason Chimera cannot seem to buy an offensive zone start from Bodreau. A 20 goal season was a long shot – with 1 offensive zone start every two games it is going to be downright impossible.

Tyler Sloan gets 63% of his starts in the offensive zone but is still has a negative scoring differential at 5v5. I may never understand why the Caps kept him – let alone sign him to contract extension through 2012 – but the AHL, NHL and possibly KMart are filled with replacement blueliners that would be an upgrade.

Player

5v5 TOI

SC +/- Per 15min

PP TOI

PP SCF/2min

PK TOI

PK SCA/2min

Mattheiu Perreault

11.8

8.9

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Brooks Laich

93.8

1.3

30.7

1.8

19.2

4.8

Jeff Schultz

140.8

1.3

2.1

0.0

29.1

8.3

Alexander Semin

104.9

1.0

29.3

2.3

14.4

7.2

Nicklas Backstrom

123.6

1.0

35.7

1.5

13.4

8.9

Alex Ovechkin

135.3

0.7

48.0

1.6

0.3

0.0

Boyd Gordon

36.6

0.4

1.5

1.3

13.2

8.8

Karl Alzner

114.3

0.4

3.6

0.0

13.7

5.5

Mike Knuble

116.6

0.4

26.7

0.8

5.7

5.7

John Carlson

134.2

0.0

18.2

1.5

22.2

4.4

Matt Hendricks

60.4

0.0

2.2

2.7

16.5

5.5

DJ King

15.1

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Tomas Fleischmann

88.8

(0.2)

23.5

0.9

4.6

4.6

Tom Poti

62.5

(0.2)

9.8

1.0

10.6

5.3

Tyler Sloan

79.1

(0.4)

0.0

0.0

5.7

3.8

Eric Fehr

83.8

(0.5)

19.5

1.4

0.0

0.0

Mike Green

72.5

(0.6)

28.5

1.5

13.4

8.9

Marcus Johansson

62.8

(0.7)

2.7

0.7

6.0

6.0

John Erskine

119.1

(1.3)

2.5

0.8

24.5

4.9

David Steckel

45.0

(1.7)

0.4

0.0

14.4

4.1

Jason Chimera

91.6

(2.5)

3.5

0.0

12.5

5.0

Matt Bradley

24.1

(3.1)

0.1

0.0

0.0

0.0

Brian Fahey

8.3

(3.6)

1.5

1.3

0.0

0.0

Jay Beagle

5.2

(14.5)

0.1

0.0

1.3

0.0

TOI = time on ice
SC+/- = Scoring chances for minus scoring chances against while the player is on the ice.
SCF = Scoring chance for
SCA = Scoring chance against