Sell High, Buy Low: Trade ideas for Week 6 2008

Last week, I suggested selling high on Kurt Warner (who clearly saved his job for at least one more week by tearing up a dejected Bills defense) and Earnest Graham (who perfectly illustrated my point about his lack of carries being a problem by rushing for just 59 yards on ten carries – a nice average, but a crappy fantasy performance). I advised you to buy low on Calvin Johnson (who remains a buy-low candidate after a very weak day, though the Lions are apparently even worse than I thought they were) and Peyton Manning (who put up respectable numbers – mostly thanks to Sage “Will Never, Ever Be Trusted Again” Rosenfels).

The general consensus on the value of the following players is just plain wrong, which makes them ripe to trade away (if they’re overvalued) or try to pick up (if they’re undervalued).

Sell High

LaDainian Tomlinson – I’d been holding out hope, but it’s officially time to stop the bleeding and trade him away. The clincher for me came in an interview he gave yesterday in which he talked about his injured toe: “You can’t get it better in one week. There is no such thing; nobody can. If you are injured, you are injured. One week is not going to help. If you take one week off, you might as well take three weeks off.” Translation: Expect plenty of subpar games over the rest of the season. Trade him before memory of his two recent multi-TD games fades; I don’t expect a whole lot more of those the rest of the way. The LT name alone should fetch some nice value in return.

Brandon Jacobs – After this week’s matchup with Cleveland, the Giants’ schedule gets a lot tougher and Jacobs won’t be able to squeeze nearly as much production out of the 15 carries per game he gets. Start looking into trading him and either deal him this week (when your prospective trading victim partner will be wooed by the Cleveland matchup), or wait until next week, when he’ll likely have two big weeks in a row to his name and the talking heads on ESPN will be all abuzz about him.

DeAngelo Williams – Week 5’s highest fantasy point scorer in most formats won’t be replicating those stellar stats very often. His backfield buddy Jonathan Stewart had been consistently outplaying him before last week, and the status quo isn’t likely to change after one big week. But those eye-popping numbers might be worth shopping around while they’re fresh.

Steve Slaton – Three very nice fantasy weeks in a row. Will it last? Probably not. Ahman Green is healthy again, and the committee is therefore back in full force. Slaton will likely remain the starter, but a 50-50 split seems likely. He’ll continue to be a decent RB2, but there’s no way he keeps up the pace he’s been at.

Buy Low

Calvin Johnson – If you took my advice and traded for him last week, you’re probably pretty pissed at me right now. Feel free to berate me in the comments, but give it time. I still think we’re in for big things from CJ this year. Remember that the only aspect of the game of football that the Lions know how to do is throw the ball, and they’re capable of going on an offensive tear. They’ll also be playing from behind… always… so a pass-happy offense is a guarantee. Two bad weeks in a row from him is an absolute freak occurrence, and you should take advantage of it pronto.

Marion Barber – Chances are, your league’s Marion Barber owner is feeling depressed. For the first three weeks of the season, Barber was looking likely to wind up as 2008’s premiere fantasy rusher. Now he’s had two crappy weeks in a row, and backup Felix Jones is getting all the accolades. They might be ready to cut their losses and trade Barber while he’s still one of the top scorers through five weeks. Find out if this is the case, and pry Barber away from them if you possibly can. Even if he loses a few carries to Jones, who cares? He’s still unquestionably the starter – and, crucially, the goal-line back – on one of the most potent offenses in the NFL.

I have Jacobs and I would like to trade him. What do you think about a trade for Turner? He gets more carries than Jacobs. If not turner what other RBs do you think I could get for Jacobs at his level?

@Ali: You might try to pawn Jacobs for Steven Jackson at this point. While Jackson was probably taken a round ahead of Jacobs in the draft, Jackson only has one touchdown this year and is underperforming. He’s gotten plenty of carries over the past two games though and is used in the passing game too so there should be greener pastures ahead for him.

sorry didn’t give you the full picture. I have Addai, Jacobs, Forte, Fargas, McClain, and Sproles. I have a guy who might be open to pulling the trigger on Jacobs for Turner, would you do it? or would you rather go with Jacobs for Jackson?

If he’s going to give you Turner for Jacobs, I’d do it in a heartbeat. Turner’s an elite RB so far and I see no reason to believe he won’t finish in the top 5 overall at the position. Jacobs’ carries in the past three games: 15, 14, 15. Chances are, that’s what the Giants will continue to give him. That’s not enough to be an elite back, especially when he’s a non-entity as a receiver (3 total so far this season).

Just reading this post now and Matt you mentioned my 2 RBs (Jacobs and LT). This is a deeper league (14 teams) where some teams have gaping wholes to fill and my team just so happens to need some quality WR. I agree Turner is emerging into a top 5 monster back, but I’m trying to propose a trade where I get a top tier WR and maybe a RB2/RB3 in return for LT – what players would be good candidates for this trade?