EIA’s Annual Energy Outlook 2016 addresses bioenergy

The U.S. Energy Information Administration recently released its Annual Energy Outlook 2016, which includes projections through 2040. The outlook features forecasts for renewable energy, including bioenergy.

According to the EIA, projections in the AEO16 focus on factors expected to shape U.S. energy markets through 2040. The administration said these projections provide a basis for examination and serve as starting point for analysis of potential changes in energy policy, rules, and regulations, as well as the potential role of advanced technologies.

The report focuses largely on the AEO16 reference case, which reflects new legislation and regulations enacted since 2015, along with model changes and data updates. The AEO16 also presents 17 alternative cases that address several key uncertainties in the AEO16 projections.

The reference case predicts net summer capacity in the electric power sector for wood and other biomass sources will increase from 3.4 GW in 2014 to 4.1 GW in 2040, an annual growth rate of 0.7 percent. Municipal waste capacity is expected to remain relatively flat, increasing from 3.7 GW in 2014 to 3.9 GW in 2040.

In the electric power sector, generation from wood and other biomass is expected to increase from 15.1 billion kWh in 2014 to 17.7 billion kWh in 2040, an annual growth rate of 4.3 percent. The majority of the increase is expected to come from dedicated plants, with generation increasing from 14 billion kWh in 2014 to 17 kWh in 2040, a 4.7 percent annual growth rate. Under the reference case, generation from cofiring falls from 1.1 billion kWh in 2014 to 0.7 kWh in 2040, an annual growth rate of -0.3 percent. Generation from biogenic municipal waste is expected to increase from 17.6 billion kWh in 2014 to 21.9 kWh in 2040, an annual growth rate of 0.5 percent.

Across all U.S. sectors, net summer capacity for wood and other biomass is expected to increase from 8.1 GW in 2014 to 9.1 GW by 2040, an annual growth rate of 0.5 percent. Capacity from municipal waste is expected to remain relatively flat, growing from 4.3 GW in 2014 to 4.4 GW in 2040.

Across all sectors, generation from wood and other biomass is expected to increase from 41.2 billion kWh in 2014 to 45.2 billion kWh in 2040, a 1.4 percent annual growth rate. Generation from municipal waste is expected to increase from 21.7 billion kWh in 2014 to 26 billion kWh in 2040, an annual growth rate of 0.4 percent.