SimonSays Handicapping Challenge

Perhaps people following this contest have noticed I have yet to pick a challenge-winning wager in three weeks (the first week was a trial week). I can assure you I've noticed, as I bet most of my selections if I thought I was getting fair value. Some might opine I should start drinking to forget, but instead I'm going to try a whole new venue and play the Friday Night races at Sam Houston to see if I can find some success. The weather report is excellent, and the grass races should go.

All selections at Sam Houston Race Park (2/11/11):

Race 120 units to WIN on 1-Where's Mimi.

Rationale: I think Where's Mimi's last race was too poor to be believed, and at Oaklawn going one mile there is a large advantage to be drawn inside - note “Mimi” was in post 9 of 9. Connections are optimistic enough to raise her in claiming price and I expect underrated speed jock Larry Taylor to put her on the engine. All Aboard?

Rationale: The 3, 8, and 10 appear to be the best in here, although these kind of horses usually do not turf sprint. Soft Shoe has a decent record, a solid win on the dirt last out, and is a gelding by Smart Strike out of a Danzig mare. That says "grass" to me. Also, Soft Shoe is 5-2-2-1 in dirt sprints since adding front wraps, so they must be helping out somehow.

Race 510 units WIN on 6-Neon Bullet.7 unit EXACTA 6/4.3 unit EXACTA 4/6.1 unit PICK THREE 6 with 3,8 with 1,3,5.Rationale: Neon Bullet's last race is stronger than most of these can handle, and he has some back class too, along with a "jockey upgrade" to Chris Landeros.

Race 61 unit PICK THREE on 3,8 with 3,5 with 9

Race 810 units to WIN on 9-Most Darling.

Rationale: Most Darling had a good record in 2010 at Remington Park running against Oklahoma Breds, has a nice sprinter's pedigree and is training very well in the mornings for her comeback. 10/1 ML in this spot appears to be very generous.

José D. De León Alejandro

Gulfstream Park (2/12/11)Race 1 * 6F * Dirt

5-Champ Dimare

COMMENTS: She won her debut race easy, being heavily favored. She switches to high % trainer (33% with 1st timers) and jhigh % jockey at the current meeting (61% combo is a plus). Her trainer has 39% with the +46-90-days-away angle. She is training consistently well.

BETS: $20 WIN on 5.

Gulfstream Park (2/12/11)Race 4 * 1 Mile * Turf

6-Bim Bam3-Thunder Brew7-Baltimore Bob8-Never on Sunday

COMMENTS: Tough race, suggesting a big payoff. Bim Bam is coming from some key races in his last 3-4 starts. With a perfect trip, he figures forwardly throughout with this group. Thunder Brew is dropping out of better company and this is his best distance. He is in good form for this race. The class of the field is Never on Sunday (blinkers on), but his price might not be as attractive as top 2 picks.

BETS: $5 across the board (WIN, PLACE and SHOW) on 3 & 6. Dime ($0.10) SUPERFECTA BOX on 1-3-4-6-7-8.

Gulfstream Park (2/12/11)Race 6 * 1 Mile * Dirt

9-Equestrio4-Groomedforvictory

COMMENTS: Groomedforvictory is the class of the field by far, but the value is on Equestrio; lightly raced colt in route to a peak performance that could be enough to win. His bullet workout and the Zito/Leparoux combo add to his attractiveness.

BETS: $5 WIN on 9.

Gulfstream Park (2/12/11)Race 9 * 1 Mile * Turf

9-Cozy Lion3-Gaelic Storm2-Feels All Right

COMMENTS: Cozy Lion is peaking right now, working well in the mornings, and coming from a monster race closing in 28 seconds last 500 meters after being steadied in 1st turn. He is very effective in GP. Gaelic Storm is another shoot from the hottest combo in the meeting. Trainer has an effectiveness aroung 40% bringing back horses from a 46-90 days off, 1st after claiming and Turf starts. Four victories and three seconds in his last 7 starts!

BETS: $5 across the board on 3 and 9.

Tampa Bay Downs (02/12/11)Race 10 * 1-1/16 mile * Dirt

9-Ribo Bobo10-Brethren

COMMENTS: This is a deep race and all eyes are on Super Saver's undefeated little brother, Brethren. He has all the right to step up and crush this field. He has shown some brilliance in his two starts, training very well, and his connections are very good.at every angle to look at in this race. However, I will shoot for some value and my pick will be the experienced Ribo Bobo. Pace in this race is expected to be honest but not crazily suicidal. The speed bias is 82% for the distance/surface and most of the favorites here do their best running late. Ribo Bobo has blinkers for this race, which is a favorable angle for his trainer (23%). His last workout was an amazing bullet (36 Hg), suggesting he will be placed directly in the front and nobody is going to pay attention to him. Tossing last 3 races (horrible trips), this horse fits in here with a second place in the Iroquois-G3 behind a nice prospect Astrology. He loves 2 turns and his speed figures are right there with the favorites. 20/1 ML just says BET ON ME!

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TwinSpires' horse racing author, handicapper, and podcast host, Derek Simon of Denver, Colo. offers his insightful, humorous and sometimes controversial take on the horse racing industry. He even publishes the ROI on the picks he gives out.

The Director of Marketing for Bloodstock Research Information Services (BRIS) and a lifelong Thoroughbred racing enthusiast and astute handicapper, Ed joined Churchill Downs Inc. following nine years as a writer and editor with Thoroughbred Times.

A writer and editor who has been following horse racing for fifteen years. Peter has written books for the Daily Racing Form Press; Crown; and Simon and Schuster; among other publishers, and regular features in The Horseplayer Magazine.