Analysis of the impact of the new crown epidemic on China and the global auto industry...

18:42 27-04-2020 reading

Compared with SARS, this new coronavirus is more infectious, superimposing the factors of the Spring Festival, impacting concentrated consumption, and increasing the downward pressure on China's economy. The current spread of new coronavirus pneumonia (hereinafter referred to as "the epidemic") in various countries has caused The external environment facing China is even worse. It is expected that the impact of the epidemic on China ’s GDP growth will be much greater than that of “SARS”, and the impact on the first and second quarters will be greater than that on the third and fourth quarters, with a greater impact on the tertiary industry. The decline of the national economy has particularly affected residents' confidence in consumption. As a commodity consumed by the common people, the epidemic not only exacerbates the decline in the automobile market throughout the year, but also has a direct impact on the production and operation of enterprises. At the same time, the spread of the international epidemic has also had a certain impact on China's automobile production and sales, and the global automobile industry chain is facing adjustment.

1. Analysis of the impact of the epidemic on China's auto industry

(1) The resumption of automobile production in the first quarter is easy to resume.

(2) The auto market will decline rapidly throughout the year.

2. The impact of the epidemic on the global auto industry

(1) The postponed resumption of work of China's parts suppliers affects the normal operation of the global automotive industry chain.

(2) The intensified overseas epidemic has caused the global supply chain to begin to adversely affect the Chinese automobile industry.

(3) The supply and demand pattern of multinational companies has changed due to the epidemic situation.

3. The global automobile industry chain adjustment trend under the spread of the epidemic

(1) The global automotive industry chain is interrupted by the global epidemic, and the automotive global industry chain will face reconstruction.

(2) Due to China's huge automobile market and the characteristics of the entire industry chain system, it is difficult for the global automobile industry chain to be completely "de-Chinese".

(3) It is a relatively realistic choice for multinational auto companies to moderately adjust the existing supply chain system.

4. Suggestions for stabilizing the long-term sustainable development of China's auto industry