LONDON — David Cameron’s closest advisers believe the Brexit referendum will settle the question of the U.K.’s relationship with Europe “forever” — but only if young Brits can be persuaded to vote.

Polling shows young people in the U.K., like elsewhere in Europe, have radically different views to their parents’ generation on a whole range of issues, from immigration to gay marriage. They are also far less taken with Euroskepticism, tending to view the EU, and globalization in general, as an opportunity rather than a threat.

Problem is, they can’t be relied on to get to the polling booths on June 23.

Opinion polls have switched decisively in favor of the Remain campaign in the past fortnight, as Downing Street’s coordinated warnings of economic turmoil and higher prices appear to have hit home among the middle classes.

But persuading students and younger voters to turn out would seal the deal and allow the Tory prime minister to comfortably defeat the Brexiteers.

“The thing that could transform the scale of the result is if young people register to vote in greater numbers and vote in greater numbers than they did at the general election,” Andrew Cooper, a Conservative peer and former Downing Street pollster who is advising the Remain campaign, said.

“However much the Leave voters don’t want to accept the fact, if we vote to stay in the EU that issue is settled forever” — Andrew Cooper

The polling evidence is clear: Young Brits overwhelmingly support the EU and show no sign of changing their minds anytime soon. Their enthusiasm, Cooper said, reflects their outlook on life rather than some “narrow judgement about what they think about the European Union.”

That means the political class is drawing the wrong lessons from Scotland, where calls for independence have resurfaced less than two years after the 2014 referendum, said Cooper.

Unlike Scotland, where young independence supporters are likely to temper their separatism as they get older because of the financial implications of leaving, the under-40s who support the EU are unlikely to change their outlook.

“They are very positive about immigration. They see globalization as an opportunity, not a threat. They are extremely socially liberal. It’s just a totally different world view,” he said.

These people are “not suddenly going to turn into grumpy, Tory Euroskeptics when they hit the age of 50,” Cooper said. “However much the Leave voters don’t want to accept the fact, if we vote to stay in the EU that issue is settled forever.”

Way of life

Broadly, polls show that elderly Brits favor the Leave campaign and can usually be relied on to turn out to vote in large numbers, in a country where voting is not obligatory. The Brexit camp loses out to Remain when it comes to wealthier, more educated voters.

British Prime Minister David Cameron joins students at the launch of the ‘Brighter Future In’ campaign bus at Exeter | Dan Kitwood/Getty Images)

In overall demographic terms, these factors cancel each other out, heightening the importance to Cameron of persuading students in particular to vote.

The lead for Remain among 18 to 24-year-olds ranges between 60-70 percent, but only 43 percent of this age group bothered to vote at the general election last year. In the Scottish referendum of 2014, just 50 percent of 18 to 24-year-olds voted, even though overall turnout hit a record high of 84 percent.

Remain campaign insiders say Downing Street has made “huge efforts” to drive up student turnout. The man charged with leading Cameron’s bid to persuade youngsters to vote is Sam Gyimah, a high-flying minister in the Department for Education.

The Tory minister, educated in Ghana, is targeting what he calls the “easyJet generation,” for whom traveling and working in the EU is taken for granted — but voting isn’t.

“For them being in the EU is a fact — it’s part of their way of life,” Gyimah told POLITICO. “They like that Britain is being Europeanized.”

“Nothing goes down as well with young people as work and travel. That is absolutely crucial for young people” — Scott Townsend, anti-Brexit campaign creator

Gyimah was influential in bringing in the specialist London branding agency Venture Three, whose clients include the broadcaster Sky, the publishing house Penguin and the online delivery service Just Eat, to design a strategy for the Remain campaign to target younger voters.

The minister and Cameron loyalist wanted the poster and social media campaign, which was launched last week, to bypass politicians completely.

People at Venture Three said the main problem they saw was that young voters were being asked to support the status quo, which many found unappealing. Instead, the campaign targets things youngsters value about Europe — primarily traveling, studying and working abroad.

Its slogans use “text speak” like roamin, ravin and travellin — and havebeen dismissed by Brexit campaigners as patronisin.

Michael Zur-Szpiro, the company’s Swiss founder, said ahead of the campaign’s launch last Tuesday that they expected the posters to be “taken the piss out of,” insisting this would only serve to drive the message home.

Privately, the firm is delighted with the media coverage. The campaign trended on Twitter for seven hours Tuesday and featured on the front page of the mass-market free newspaper Metro, which is widely read by young professionals commuting to work in Britain’s major cities.

Work and play

The campaign’s focus on celebrating the benefits of the EU, rather than the dangers of leaving, is a tacit admission that Downing Street’s “Project Fear” has gained little traction with younger voters who have less to lose from Brexit financially, but value cultural ties to the Continent.

“It’s better than house prices, or the economy or ‘Stronger in,’” said Scott Townsend, 26, one of the campaign’s creators.

“Anything to do with climate change, the environment, workers’ rights, equality, works well,” a senior source in the Remain campaign said. “But nothing goes down as well with young people as work and travel. That is absolutely crucial for young people.”

The Stronger in Europe campaign has hired Tom Edmonds and Craig Elder, the social media experts who have been described as Cameron’s secret weapon in the 2015 general election, to target young voters online. They are focusing on Facebook and Instagram with videos that have already been shared millions of times.

“There’s no reason why, if you had the right leader of a Euroskeptic movement, young people couldn’t be turned against the EU” — Tim Montgomerie, former editor of Conservative Home

So far, most of the Remain campaign’s work has been devoted to ensuring young people register to vote. More than 70 universities now have Britain Stronger in Europe groups campaigning on campus. One university, De Montford in Leicester, has registered 99 percent of its students.

Another major boost to the Remain campaign was the endorsement of Harry Potter author J.K. Rowling, who tweeted her support for the EU to her 7.3 million followers.

Despite such efforts, however, Damian Lyons Lowe of the polling organization Survation casts doubt on the drive to increase turnout among younger voters. Just 52 percent of 18 to 34-years-olds say they are certain to vote in the referendum, compared to 72 percent of over 55s, he said. Only 26 percent of 18 to 24-year-olds were a “10 out 10” certain to take part.

Hubris warning

Cameron’s Leave opponents within his own party reject the notion that young Britons will always be pro-European. They argue that a Bernie Sanders-like opposition movement could swell up in the future against what they portray as Brussels’ corporatism.

‘A Bernie Sanders-like opposition movement could swell up in the future’ against the EU | Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images

Tim Montgomerie, former editor of the Conservative Home website who has been described as “one of the most influential Tories outside the Cabinet,” said Downing Street “shouldn’t be too cocky” about winning the referendum in the first place.

But even if Remain did win, he disputed Cooper’s claim that it would be the end of the Brexit dream.

“Europe has to solve its internal contradictions. At the moment it cannot make decisions about refugees, it cannot make decisions about the eurozone,” said Montgomery. “It’s hubristic to think these problems are just going to go away.”

“If you look at how young people are powering the Bernie Sanders phenomenon, it’s all about their unhappiness with Wall Street and corporate greed,” he said. “Vote Leave has not encapsulated this, but there’s no reason why the same forces cannot be mobilized in the U.K. against the crony capitalism in Brussels.”

“There’s no reason why, if you had the right leader of a Euroskeptic movement, young people couldn’t be turned against the EU. That would be a modernizing message as well.”

This is another challenge for Cameron after the referendum — modernizing the Conservative party’s image. Whether he remains in his job to tackle that task will depend to a large degree on youngsters who would never normally vote Conservative. If they get off their backsides to support him this time, Cameron hopes they’ll never have to be troubled on Europe again.

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thomas

The polls of young people are normally from universities and therefore students. Among young people like me who learnt a trade instead of going to uni, we don’t favour remaining. We have seen increased competition from mainly eastern European migrants for jobs, pushing down wages, training opportunities, our hopes of owning s home and our public services and living standards. If we remain we risk becoming a lost generation like the youth in so many EU countries.

Posted on 5/30/16 | 8:01 AM CET

cs

I wonder how many of the young people on zero hour contracts will be voting remain. Some have the nerve to say we would lose rights at work when zero hour contracts are thriving whilst we are in the EU.

Posted on 5/30/16 | 8:24 AM CET

Marcel

Now think of the facts. The EU is undemocratic, wants to amp up the warmongering (on US orders) by building an EU army and will massively increase membership fees within a year (being kept under wraps until after the referendum).
Plus the immigration driven squeeze on wages. I wonder if most of those “young people” are all thinking some fat government or EU job is waiting for them. The “young people” cited are likely not expecting to having to compete with a Pole or a Latvian or a Hungarian for the jobs they fancy.
Their disappointment will hit home hard, especially when you realize the yawning gap between EU rhetoric and EU reality.

And what’s with the contempt against lesser-educated people? The elitist idea that “only smart educated people know what’s best for you”? Isn’t that the mindset ruling Brussels already? The idea that elections and referendums are nuisances that ought to be brushed aside if they don’t produce the result desired by these “educated elitists”. People who have never had to compete for a job with a mass of Poles and see wages plummet (as they have for many who aren’t rich, especially in the Eurozone which Britain is fortunate to not be a part of).

Elitism is a disease and must be fought, elitism is a sort of cancer, and populism is the answer.

The EU will be the 21st century’s Soviet Union and it will disappear. Not this year, not this decade and perhaps not before we’re halfway this century, but history teaches us that nothing lasts forever, and all the great empires and artificial constructs have all disappeared.

Anyone care to tell me where to find the Mongol Empire? The Roman Empire? The Ottoman Caliphate/Empire? The Persian Empire? The Zulu Empire? The Spanish Empire? The Russian Empire? All gone, and all collapsed very quickly from a position where only a few decades before such a collapse would not have been believed by many in said empires. Some like the Habsburg Empire collapsed in only a few months time.

The EU-ites are engaging in wishful thinking if they believe that a (likely) IN-vote will settle the matter forever.

Posted on 5/30/16 | 3:29 PM CET

Roy Jacobs

University students perhaps feel an attachment to the EU.
Go to the council estates and post industrial cities of the North or Wales and you get a completely different response. Labour MPs campaigning for Remain in these places return to Westminster shell shocked by the response they are getting on the doorstep.

And Brits are in a unique position that all others can only dream about: They speak the worlds business language as a native language.

Posted on 5/30/16 | 5:31 PM CET

thomas

Thanks for sharing that article Chris Pyak. It’s scary to see that Spain, Greece, Italy all have youth unemployment above 40% and shows the mess the EU is in. Your article refers to young professionals freely moving between countries and suggests rich northern countries desperately need them. But free movement of labour means anybody can move freely regardless of skills, and the vast majority of people that have come to the UK are not needed, when domestic workers face higher housing costs, lower wages and broken public services we feel poorer not enriched.

As long as there are massive variations in standards of living across the 28 EU countries, free movement of labour will always be flawed and a one way street. If it benefited rich countries why haven’t any outside the EU opened up and said anyone can come and work here regardless of skills.

Posted on 5/30/16 | 11:01 PM CET

Gerhard

This is because the EasyJet generation seems to be largely clueless about the political construct, implications and power of the EU.

Posted on 5/31/16 | 11:46 AM CET

Marcel

The most disturbing part is that the EasyJet Generation seems to have nothing but contempt for democracy, and love for elitism and mutually appointed tax exempt politicians.

Maybe one of them can explain to me who exactly democratically elected Juncker or Tusk, and with special regard for the “demos” part that is central to the term democracy. I shan’t be holding my breath, however.

Posted on 5/31/16 | 2:22 PM CET

Ralle

They were chosen by God of course… What else is possible, if people are not “elected”? Okay, here we go and young people know that of corse: Juncker was elected by the EP (even though British PM always opposed this procedure), while Tusk was elected by all member states without any exception. If you call this undemocratic, well, you shouldn’t compare it with the British system, because the latter would look pretty archaic with all this gerrymendering, the House of Lords or parties gaining more than 10%, but get less than 0,2% of the seats