They'd need 6 to approve an AE "coup".... Maine, UNH, SUNY-SBU, SUNY-Albany might go for it, as it would stabilize the AE, relative to the CAA.They'd need another 2 of the 11 for a majority (I guess) or would they need 2/3 or 3/4 ? So they'd have to persuade at least 2 additional teams to vote with them OR invite those teams (like Delaware, Towson) to be AE full-members.If the AE could pull this off, then they could also invite CCSU / Bryant into their league for all sportrs including FB.

I think first the SoCon would have to make the CAA vulnerable by picking off CoC and UNCW, and then if JMU and / or W&M go anywhere, the AE would be in a position of power.

They'd need 6 to approve an AE "coup".... Maine, UNH, SUNY-SBU, SUNY-Albany might go for it, as it would stabilize the AE, relative to the CAA.They'd need another 2 of the 11 for a majority (I guess) or would they need 2/3 or 3/4 ? So they'd have to persuade at least 2 additional teams to vote with them OR invite those teams (like Delaware, Towson) to be AE full-members.If the AE could pull this off, then they could also invite CCSU / Bryant into their league for all sportrs including FB.

I think first the SoCon would have to make the CAA vulnerable by picking off CoC and UNCW, and then if JMU and / or W&M go anywhere, the AE would be in a position of power.

I'm too lazy to go look, so anyone please correct me if I'm wrong. I thought I remember hearing that the AE made a play for two NEC schools and I think it was Bryant and CCSU and they were turned down. I don't know if it was true but I thought it was supposed to be the reason that added UMass-Lowell as they didn't get their first two choices.

Here's how I see it. Rhode Island was leaving the conference a couple years back because it was too far south and if I remember correctly UNH and Maine were likely considering the same. That was the whole reason some northern schools were added. So if the CAA goes south you're all but guaranteeing the northern football schools splitting.

Here's my question. In the event of a split and they go after NEC schools, how many scholarships will this northern conference offer? I assumed this was the major hiccup in the AE takeover/split. The northern 5 could probably get Monmouth for football only out of the Big South so that's probably the easiest way to 6. That's the way to force Delaware, Towson, and Nova's hands. Richmond will probably follow William & Mary to either the Patriot or the SoCon. I see no indications the SoCon is interested in expanding their footprint so my guess is the Patriot.

The most sensible thing is to let the various groups go their separate ways.1. to SoCon2. to AE / MAAC, A-10 if really lucky !3. to SoCon, AE, A-104. to Sun-Belt / MAC

I really hope the CAA doesn't try to survive by tearing apart another geographically sensible conference, but I expect they will try...

Its unfortunate how the CAA has had their core carved up. The core of the CAA was the VA schools. When Richmond nixed the CAA- SoCon merger in the 90's the CAA was forced to expand their footprint in order to survive. The CAA's success by its core schools made it vulnerable to carved up. Richmond, VCU, GMU (basketball schools) joined a stronger, more profitable basketball conference in the A10. ODU (a schools with high ambitions) cashed in on FBS chaos and joined a suprisingly travel friendly Eastern Division of CUSA. Schools like JMU and W&M as a result feel obligated to move because the conference they were comfortable in is no more. At this point, I believe JMU will take the Sunbelt invite because there is no upside to staying put. W&M will then join the Patriot wear they will once again be in a conference in which they are institutionally comfortable since the new CAA can no longer provide that.

The result will unfortunately be a mess for the remaining schools. UNCW and CoC will want more southern basketball oriented schools but will be hard pressed to find the votes for it as now BOTH football and olympic sports will have a northern tilt. Depending on the votes required for expansion, UNCW and CoC may be powerless to stop the addition of northern schools. However, assuming the CAA has similar requirements to that of the ACC when it comes to expansion, 2 teams will be able to veto expansion in what will then be a 7 team conference.

It was and still ismy hope that the CAA would be able to establish solid northern and southern divisions of either 6 or 7 schools that had limited interaction. If UNCW and CoC can veto pure northern expansion that may still be a possibility. I am hoping this can be done before JMU and W&M leave as having those two will make southern expansion easier.

I do not necessarily agree that the CAA was serving too many masters. The emphasis has always been on basketball and this is backed up by conference decisions in regards to emphasizing basketball funds and scheduling to maximize RPI rankings for the schools. The CAA has long pursued basketball oriented schools but has been rebuffed because the move was not seen as worthwhile. The only school that was added purely for football reasons was Northeastern and even that was proceeded by a recruitment of Boston U. The A10 taking Richmond followed by taking VCU and GMU (all 3 core non football schools) are the most damaging thing that has happened to the league. This would have happened irregardless of CAA football. Ideally the CAA could reload like other conferences do, but being at the bottom of the totem pole, along with not having a tight core (which was caused by the non football related move of Richmond leaving for the A10 back in the 90's) will make this difficult and possibiliy messy.

The Northern CAA schools have got to realize that the only way for their league to survive and have the possibility to retain its current level of prestige is by adding southern members. If they only add replacements in the north its simply going to drive the southern members away and by shrinking the footprint they will likely kill their television contract.

Like I said before, they need 3 southern members and if/when JMU leaves (which is looking very likely now that WKU is going to C-USA) then they can pick up a northern school.

If W&M leaves, I would think it would be for Patriot. W&M love the VA core the CAA offered, but without that they are better fit institutionally for the Patriot instead of being the northern outpost for the SoCon.

I do think CoC could make nice with SoCon if necessary, Davidson would fight for them despite of any bad blood. I don't know about UNCW though. Hopefully it could be a package deal with UNCW, Davidson, CoC and UNCG allowing the SoCon to adopt a 10-14 model.

1. I think the CAA should do their best to keep William & Mary in the fold2. I think the CAA's southern strategy is going to have to include some southern football schools, hence why keeping William & Mary in the fold is so important because the Tribe brings CAA 2 football teams--theirs and Richmonds

I'm curious as to what you all think: If things go south for CAA (and by South I mean they lose all their Southern members) and they are left with just 5 members--Northeastern, Hofstra, Drexel, Delaware, and Towson does that group:

A. merge with America East to form a 14 member leagueB. cherry pick America East C. cherry pick America East and/or another conference like the MAAC

I would LOVE for W&M to stay and I do agree it would be good for CAA football as well to get RIchmond program along with W&M. BUT a question W&M will ask why is the CAA better for them than the Patriot if they are the only VA school? I don't have a good answer for that.

Also, I think the best case scenario for the southern strategy is to focus on basketball regardless of whether or not the program has an FCS team. By adding Elon, who will be included in virtually any southern expansion scenario, the CAA has 5 all sports FCS members, assuming Stony Brook and Albany are added as all sports members. Villanova and URI will vote for status quo so really as long as the CAA has 4 all sports FCS members the league will be ok and stable under the CAA banner.

I definitely think it is a good idea for the CAA to maintain the FCS league b/c that opens up the league to expansion to any quality basketball candidate that has an FCS team and would need a home for that program.

Also, I think the best case scenario for the southern strategy is to focus on basketball regardless of whether or not the program has an FCS team. By adding Elon, who will be included in virtually any southern expansion scenario, the CAA has 5 all sports FCS members, assuming Stony Brook and Albany are added as all sports members. Villanova and URI will vote for status quo so really as long as the CAA has 4 all sports FCS members the league will be ok and stable under the CAA banner.

I definitely think it is a good idea for the CAA to maintain the FCS league b/c that opens up the league to expansion to any quality basketball candidate that has an FCS team and would need a home for that program.

If W&M joins the Patriot league and Richmond also follow as a fb only, what makes you think Nova would stay in the CAA when fellow Big Easter Georgetown plays fb over there too?

By going along with the Catholic 7 schools Nova has hitched its ride to academics and bball, any FBS dream is gone so naturally playing Richmond, W&M, Georgetown, plus schools like Fordham, Colgate, Holy Cross trump playing Albany, Rhode Island, New Hampshire, Maine and Stoney Brook.

Fine they have nearby UDel (who might be the MACs #14) and Towson, but the Patriot as Lehigh, Bucknell, and Lafeyette.

IF W&M leaves I think we see a move to a purely Northern conference as the CAA will take every fb playing member of the AE and a few others like Cen Conn St, Bryant, and Monmouth just to survive and keep their TV deal.

_________________Fan of the Big 12 Conference, the Mountain West Conference and...

Also, I think the best case scenario for the southern strategy is to focus on basketball regardless of whether or not the program has an FCS team. By adding Elon, who will be included in virtually any southern expansion scenario, the CAA has 5 all sports FCS members, assuming Stony Brook and Albany are added as all sports members. Villanova and URI will vote for status quo so really as long as the CAA has 4 all sports FCS members the league will be ok and stable under the CAA banner.

I definitely think it is a good idea for the CAA to maintain the FCS league b/c that opens up the league to expansion to any quality basketball candidate that has an FCS team and would need a home for that program.

If W&M joins the Patriot league and Richmond also follow as a fb only, what makes you think Nova would stay in the CAA when fellow Big Easter Georgetown plays fb over there too?

By going along with the Catholic 7 schools Nova has hitched its ride to academics and bball, any FBS dream is gone so naturally playing Richmond, W&M, Georgetown, plus schools like Fordham, Colgate, Holy Cross trump playing Albany, Rhode Island, New Hampshire, Maine and Stoney Brook.

Fine they have nearby UDel (who might be the MACs #14) and Towson, but the Patriot as Lehigh, Bucknell, and Lafeyette.

IF W&M leaves I think we see a move to a purely Northern conference as the CAA will take every fb playing member of the AE and a few others like Cen Conn St, Bryant, and Monmouth just to survive and keep their TV deal.

because villanova likes their annual game with delaware. threatening delaware's football conference stability is not a good way to maintain said annual game.

again depending upon the requirement for expansion, it is likely the CoC and UNCW can veto pure northern expansion. In a 9 team ACC, 3 members were able to block expansion, so I would imagine in a 7 team CAA, 2 members would be able to veto anything that did not take into consideration their interests.

The CAA tv deal covers production costs but does not give much if any financial windfall to its members. Its a great deal for a small conference like the CAA no doubt, but NBC Sports is not likely to cancel it because at worst the CAA provides cheap quality programming for its RSN's in the Midatlantic, PA, and New England areas. Plus its not like NBC Sports has anything else to show collegiate sports wise.

So, unless CoC and UNCW are given an acceptable safe haven somewhere else, the CAA will have to include southern teams. The FCS league will of course be preserved under the CAA banner, but programs without quality basketball will not likely be added simply in order to save the football league.

because villanova likes their annual game with delaware. threatening delaware's football conference stability is not a good way to maintain said annual game.

Delaware won't preserve it if they go FBS, and I think Villanova would rather keep UPenn and Lehigh. Them and Temple couldn't even keep the Mayor's Cup a yearly thing, and the city and media wanted it to.

I don't like Villanova's future. I think it's in really bad hands, and that if Talley wasn't a home-run as a coach, recruiter, and recognizable college face, he wouldn't get the audience he does with the president and AD. The AD didn't even mention football (or the more recognized track and field and cross-country programs) when the split talks began to emerge, and NiCastro released a letter to alums and boosters. That football program is not going big-time, and even if they won the next two or three NC's, I think the leadership would be more wary than pleased, because they don't want to commit the resources to the sport or feed the culture they perceive (and believe) it will create. So, no...Villanova sticking around the CAA? How long until Talley retires?

because villanova likes their annual game with delaware. threatening delaware's football conference stability is not a good way to maintain said annual game.

Delaware won't preserve it if they go FBS, and I think Villanova would rather keep UPenn and Lehigh. Them and Temple couldn't even keep the Mayor's Cup a yearly thing, and the city and media wanted it to.

I don't like Villanova's future. I think it's in really bad hands, and that if Talley wasn't a home-run as a coach, recruiter, and recognizable college face, he wouldn't get the audience he does with the president and AD. The AD didn't even mention football (or the more recognized track and field and cross-country programs) when the split talks began to emerge, and NiCastro released a letter to alums and boosters. That football program is not going big-time, and even if they won the next two or three NC's, I think the leadership would be more wary than pleased, because they don't want to commit the resources to the sport or feed the culture they perceive (and believe) it will create. So, no...Villanova sticking around the CAA? How long until Talley retires?

I see Delaware as the East Coast version of Montana, they have a ton of potential at the FBS level, but have no real motivation or incentive to do so. JMU used to be that way too, but then the VA core of the CAA collaspsed causing them to have to re-evaluate their situation. Things have not changed that much for Delaware. Yes the CAA lost is power basketball schools, but Delaware's priority was never basketball, it has always been FCS football. That is why they joined the CAA in the first place, so their sports could be placed under 1 umbrella. They are one of the few programs that make money off of FCS football. Combine that with the fact that they will be an even greater player in the new CAA, why would Delaware give all that up to join the MAC where they will be the southeastern outlier?? The new CAA will be created much to Delaware's liking, and even if there is a southern division, I see that being more appealing to Delaware than traveling to the midwest for every single sport as opposed to the occassional trip down south.

So with Delaware not going anywhere, Villanova will stay put as well, especially since the Temple game is not such a sure thing.

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