Trump or Clinton? What India Really Wants From the US Election

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The Indian government knows it cannot pursue military modernisation without access to advanced US weaponry and technology

Members of Hindu Sena, a right wing Hindu group, shout slogans during a protest against Hillary Clinton in New Delhi. Credit: Reuters

With a few days left before the US presidential election, the world is waiting to see whether American voters will elect their first female president in Hillary Clinton, or opt for the controversial billionaire Donald Trump. But one thing is sure – the election of either candidate will have a profound impact on US foreign policy.

India, which has transformed its ties with the US over the past two decades, has its own reasons – especially economic ones – to monitor the election closely.

What India wants

Only two years ago, outgoing US President Barack Obama and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi set the goal of increasing bilateral trade to US$ 500 billion by 2020. The Indian government expects the new US administration to launch initiatives to achieve this goal.

Artist Harwinder Singh Gill creates an image of US President Barack Obama out of vegetables. Credit: Reuters

The government in New Delhi also hopes that its counterpart in Washington will remain committed to helping India realise its ‘Smart City‘ programme for the cities of Ajmer, Vishakhapatnam and Allahabad.

While the US has become India’s largest defence supplier (defence trade between the two countries surpassed US$ 14 billion in 2015), India also needs close cooperation from the US to ensure the success of the Modi government’s ‘Make in India’ initiative.

New Delhi feels the presence of the US in South Asia will help maintain the balance of power in its favour. The Indian government also knows it cannot pursue military modernisation without access to advanced US weaponry and technology.

Isolating Pakistan for failing to adequately address terrorism also requires the Indian government to sustain security talks and military exercises with the US.

As a businessman, Trump also has significant economic interests in India, with a luxury business tower being built in premium location in Mumbai.

But what continues to haunt Indians are Trump’s views on immigration. According to official US data – Indian citizens are the top recipients of temporary high-skilled worker H-1B visas, accounting for 70% of the 316,000 H-1B petitions (for fiscal year 2014).

Trump has already announced that his administration would initiate a tough immigration policy and hike the minimum wage paid to H1B visa holders, if elected president. This could reduce the prospect of job opportunities for Indian professionals and others.

According to the US migration census, 103,000 Indian-born students enrolled in US educational institutions in 2013-14. This makes India the second largest source of international students to the US after China.

Clinton co-chaired the Senate India Caucus and supported the India-US Civil Nuclear Agreement. During her tenure as US secretary of state (2009-2013), she further consolidated the deepening engagement between the two countries.

Hillary Clinton and her daughter Chelsea in front of the Taj Mahal in 1995. Credit: US Embassy/Flickr, CC BY-NC-SA

She played an important role in strengthening ties with New Delhi under President Obama’s pivot to Asia. And her 2011 speech in Chennai was viewed as an historic moment for bilateral ties between the two countries. She said, “The time has come for India to lead. Much of the history of the 21st century will be written in Asia which, in turn, will be influenced by the partnership between the US and India and its relationship with neighbours.”

She also said that India should “not just look east, but engage east and act east” — to emerge as and consolidate its status as an Asian power. Her strong stand against Pakistan for its dismal performance in eliminating terrorist havens continues to have an impact on the minds of Indian people.

Clinton’s speech in Chennai in 2011, US embassy

Clinton’s campaign chief John Podesta has said she will take relations between the two countries to a new level. And that better economic ties with India will anchor the US in the region.

But her rival Donald Trump has alleged that Clinton has received funds from Indian leaders for her support of the nuclear deal.

Consensus in New Delhi

Clinton enjoys a good reputation among the sections of Indian-American community, especially the younger generation.

Undoubtedly, she enjoys the advantage of knowing India far better than her Republican rival. But it is also true that Trump’s recent efforts to attract the Indian-American community have paid off.

The Indian government and strategists appear less concerned about who wins than they have been in the past. So far, neither India’s ruling Bharatiya Janata Party nor Prime Minister Modi has taken any stand on the US election.

There’s a general consensus among experts and strategists in India that irrespective of which candidate wins the election, New Delhi and Washington must continue to work together on making their ties even closer.

This piece is part of The Conversation Global’s ‘The View From …’ series, explaining how governments and citizens in key countries worldwide view the US election.

Sumit Kumar Jha, Senior Researcher, University of Pondicherry

This article was originally published on The Conversation. Read the original article.

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