If we draft Hughes or Kakko im all in on going hard after Karlsson or offer sheeting Werenski, possibly Trouba. Theyre both Michigan guys theres a great chance theyd sign.

We could even enlist Swedish mob boss Henrik Zetterberg to help bring Karlsson here, maybe get a good word from his best buddy Alfredsson too

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Total pipe dream would be if we could pull off the Werenski portion, while Winnipeg and Trouba go the qualifying offer route. At the end of 2019-20 Trouba hits UFA status and we give him the treatment we would give Karlsson, as far as paying him what it takes to get him here. Imagine having a Werenski-Trouba first pairing for the foreseeable future, supplemented by Cholowski, Hronek, McIsaac etc.

We need to draft better than that or the offer sheets aren’t gonna matter... so I’d stop using that as the baseline.

Guess it feels a little self-defeating or like we should ideally have more faith in our drafting to me.

I want to be drafting players we wouldn’t want to give up as opposed to would... know what I mean?

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I wasn't saying so much that I would want to give them up... but that you are asking a lot to have even four 1st round picks give you what you'd land if you signed Auston Matthews. There is a very high likelihood that he's worth what all four of them would be. And that's not even anticipating bad drafting.

I guess it was more used as a barometer that what draft picks actually turn into on average are far less than what you think. And if the options are 100% landing a generational talent by paying a lot of money and 4 1st rounders or rolling the dice and hoping that you get the same or more value out of those four firsts, I go with the lock.

Think of it like this. The game show deal or no deal. You can either have four cases of your choice or pay 250,000 and be guaranteed the $1M case. What is the likelihood that the four cases you have equal or surpass 750,000 in value?

And again, the Wings have been getting a bunch of extra picks and have several rental type pieces that could land more. They actually have reasonably priced guys and have in multiple TDLs that could feasibly draw a high second or low first. I'd only consider an offersheet as part of a gigantic plan to supplement my draft stock before I do it, so I'm not left without draft picks, and for a guy at the level of an Auston Matthews. So, yeah, it's a very conditional thing, but I don't think that it's belittling your draft record to do it in that case.

Doing it for a Jacob Trouba type (4 1sts level) is lunacy. But draft picks are kinda Schrodinger's assets. They're always worth way more than they're truly worth (prior to the draft) and WAY less than they were (after the draft)

I wasn't saying so much that I would want to give them up... but that you are asking a lot to have even four 1st round picks give you what you'd land if you signed Auston Matthews. There is a very high likelihood that he's worth what all four of them would be. And that's not even anticipating bad drafting.

I guess it was more used as a barometer that what draft picks actually turn into on average are far less than what you think. And if the options are 100% landing a generational talent by paying a lot of money and 4 1st rounders or rolling the dice and hoping that you get the same or more value out of those four firsts, I go with the lock.

Think of it like this. The game show deal or no deal. You can either have four cases of your choice or pay 250,000 and be guaranteed the $1M case. What is the likelihood that the four cases you have equal or surpass 750,000 in value?

And again, the Wings have been getting a bunch of extra picks and have several rental type pieces that could land more. They actually have reasonably priced guys and have in multiple TDLs that could feasibly draw a high second or low first. I'd only consider an offersheet as part of a gigantic plan to supplement my draft stock before I do it, so I'm not left without draft picks, and for a guy at the level of an Auston Matthews. So, yeah, it's a very conditional thing, but I don't think that it's belittling your draft record to do it in that case.

Doing it for a Jacob Trouba type (4 1sts level) is lunacy. But draft picks are kinda Schrodinger's assets. They're always worth way more than they're truly worth (prior to the draft) and WAY less than they were (after the draft)

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Even still, I just don’t think it’s very practical.

The only guy I’d really try this for is Werenski, and with guys like Werenski or Trouba, I’d rather just take my crack at those guys as UFA’s. Or offer a trade a package less than the comepensation of the offer sheet and get them without the crazy cap hit.

People would love to go throw a brick of cash at Karlsson's head, likely for 7 years and over $8mm per year as damn near a 30 year old, but going after a 22 year old with high upside is too short sighted because we aren't ready to compete? I don't know, in my head, if you win the lottery and get Hughes, you go after Werenski and he's in your core long term. You're a playoff team with a core with an eldest member being Athansiou at 24-25 years old.

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The problem is that you are throwing bricks of cash AND 4 first round picks at a Werenski or a Trouba. For Karlsson, it is just the cash (and it would be more like $11-12 million than 8).

The problem is that you are throwing bricks of cash AND 4 first round picks at a Werenski or a Trouba. For Karlsson, it is just the cash (and it would be more like $11-12 million than 8).

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This is unequivocally false. Won't disagree with the Karlsson part, he probably comes in closer to $10-$11, but that's neither here nor there. The issue I have is you are making some assumption that I'm making an offer of almost $10.25 million. I like both Trouba and Werenski (that being said, I would only sign an offer sheet for Werenski), but neither have played at high enough levels to have RFA status and command a salary that sniffs the range of 4 first round picks. I could offer Werenski $8.11 million, a number that I think is even overshooting what Columbus would be comfortable with, and it would cost me a first, second, and a third round pick. A 22 year old who steps in as a top pairing defenseman is not something you should be able to acquire for that price on the trade market, and if you could, you'd be giving him a big raise either way.

This is unequivocally false. Won't disagree with the Karlsson part, he probably comes in closer to $10-$11, but that's neither here nor there. The issue I have is you are making some assumption that I'm making an offer of almost $10.25 million. I like both Trouba and Werenski (that being said, I would only sign an offer sheet for Werenski), but neither have played at high enough levels to have RFA status and command a salary that sniffs the range of 4 first round picks. I could offer Werenski $8.11 million, a number that I think is even overshooting what Columbus would be comfortable with, and it would cost me a first, second, and a third round pick. A 22 year old who steps in as a top pairing defenseman is not something you should be able to acquire for that price on the trade market, and if you could, you'd be giving him a big raise either way.

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That is the point though. You are going to have to overpay to get these guys. Columbus will match 8.11 million for Werenski. What term were you thinking anyway?

Offer sheets are entertaining for the fans, but pretty ignorant overall. Unless there's a team in a very unique situation and the player they want team's in a unique situation, then it's just terrible asset management.

You won't see KH offersheet anyone in the cap world. He's too smart for that.

The only guy I’d really try this for is Werenski, and with guys like Werenski or Trouba, I’d rather just take my crack at those guys as UFA’s. Or offer a trade a package less than the comepensation of the offer sheet and get them without the crazy cap hit.

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On the Trouba note, it might be interesting to float him a deal that Winny would have to match and which would pave his way for free agency. I think that would be a two year deal? Don't send it with any hope of getting him with that deal, but in letting him know the Wings are interested and that they are basically clearing the road for it to happen.

Let's try to remember that the player has to sign the offer sheet. I think few players would sign, knowing that they could end up in Detroit if it goes sideways. And if they don't end up in Detroit, that's a great way to foster drama and division. Not everyone gets as long a leash as Fedorov did.

Let's try to remember that the player has to sign the offer sheet. I think few players would sign, knowing that they could end up in Detroit if it goes sideways. And if they don't end up in Detroit, that's a great way to foster drama and division. Not everyone gets as long a leash as Fedorov did.

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You think they would not sign something that gives them a huge pay raise? Doubtful.

If Detroit is paying so far above market value that the team won't match, it's an awful idea. If Detroit is paying market value, there's no reason for the player to sign.

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Ok, let’s take a step back.

It’s not even worthwhile to offer sheet a guy if you’re going to offer close to what their team is offering.

So we are going to have to offer at least a decent amount more. And I doubt a player would turn that down because “it’s Detroit” or whatever. Because it’s a win-win for them. I make more money with a new team, or my team matches and I get more money here.

I think it’s very unlikely a player would refuse to sign an offer sheet, and I don’t know if we’ve seen it?

And I doubt a player would turn that down because “it’s Detroit” or whatever.

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I think they would. For example, Mitch Marner. Marner likely would not sign in Detroit just to miss the playoffs on a mediocre team when he can get basically the same amount and stay in Toronto and contend for cups. He can probably get nearly as much without ever signing the offer sheet, he won't piss off the entire city, and his team will have a little more cap space to bring in players so they can win.

A guy would have to be really greedy or a team really cheap for this to even be a sensible thing to do for an elite level player. And if it's not an elite level player, what's the point? Piss off the league, spend more than you should, give up your draft picks, and it's not even a difference maker? I'd pass.

On the Trouba note, it might be interesting to float him a deal that Winny would have to match and which would pave his way for free agency. I think that would be a two year deal? Don't send it with any hope of getting him with that deal, but in letting him know the Wings are interested and that they are basically clearing the road for it to happen.

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I think your hardcore offer, is a two-year deal at just under the 4 first round compensations. It would be a savage to do that to Winnipeg, Werenski would still have some UFA years as we would be doing that to him on a RFA deal that wouldn't expire to UFA status.

Werenski has had a tough time bouncing back from injury thus far. I think he will get back, but he has had a rough couple years, I wounder if Columbus would let him go on a big money offer. Columbus should be very aggressive this off-season on Duchene if he reaches market in my opinion. Rumors they will go after Quick to replace Bob which is intriguing.

Certainly seeing one of them come home would change the entire outlook of the rebuild for me.

I think they would. For example, Mitch Marner. Marner likely would not sign in Detroit just to miss the playoffs on a mediocre team when he can get basically the same amount and stay in Toronto and contend for cups. He can probably get nearly as much without ever signing the offer sheet, he won't piss off the entire city, and his team will have a little more cap space to bring in players so they can win.

A guy would have to be really greedy or a team really cheap for this to even be a sensible thing to do for an elite level player. And if it's not an elite level player, what's the point? Piss off the league, spend more than you should, give up your draft picks, and it's not even a difference maker? I'd pass.

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I guess where you lost me in this whole part is when you decided to give a damn about what the other team thinks or feels about your behavior? We are here to win cups, not make friends.

If the Wings are going to get someone the caliber of Trouba or Werenski under contract, we are going to be spending money. Let’s say the bar is $8 million for this discussion. You’re going to sink that money into a top pair defenseman regardless of how you come into one with the inflation of the cap and the demand for the position. Maybe we do have one in the organization, but I’m betting we don’t have anyone that aligns with Trouba or Werenski in our organization, meaning your options are Free Agency, Draft, or Trade. That leaves us in a position where we are already going to be using our draft selections to try to acquire a player capable of doing what a Werenski or Trouba have already proven to be able to do. And like I said, once we have that player, we’re going to pony up $8 million to keep them at one point or another. If you view the additional draft picks (2nd 3rd) as the guarantee that the 1st round pick pans out to be a first pair defenseman by the age of 22, it makes a lot more sense from an asset management perspective.

With all the discussion about the RFAs this season, I would not be surprised to see an offer sheet situation arise somewhere. I think it would be foolish to not consider the opportunity of being the team that does it.

Here is my revolutionary 3 step plan to turn the wings into a contender.

1) Draft Jack Hughes
2) Sign Panarin. Ideally 9.5 but I’d go higher to get it done,
3) Zack Werenski thinks things are looking pretty damn good back home and signs an offer sheet/requests a trade to Detroit.

Offersheets are fun to think about but the truth is that success requires a very specific situation. So yes, I’m interested but I’d stress caution in pursuit. A mistake with an offer sheet could devistate a struggling team.

I think your hardcore offer, is a two-year deal at just under the 4 first round compensations. It would be a savage to do that to Winnipeg, Werenski would still have some UFA years as we would be doing that to him on a RFA deal that wouldn't expire to UFA status.

Werenski has had a tough time bouncing back from injury thus far. I think he will get back, but he has had a rough couple years, I wounder if Columbus would let him go on a big money offer. Columbus should be very aggressive this off-season on Duchene if he reaches market in my opinion. Rumors they will go after Quick to replace Bob which is intriguing.

Certainly seeing one of them come home would change the entire outlook of the rebuild for me.

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I think Columbus is in a position where they have to match nearly any offersheet. They are almost certainly losing Panarin, Boborovsky is ditching them. They can't allow their talent that's under RFA control to be poached or they're not going to be an NHL franchise - and, looking at their roster, they don't look far from being a really good team. I'm with you on them grabbing Duchene. A top6 center would be big for them.