Posted
by
timothyon Friday July 13, 2012 @10:40PM
from the taunting-bruce-willis dept.

Freshly Exhumed writes with this excerpt from Space Weather: "Big sunspot AR1520 unleashed an X1.4-class solar flare on July 12th at 1653 UT. Because this sunspot is directly facing Earth, everything about the blast was geoeffective. For one thing, it hurled a coronal mass ejection (CME) directly toward our planet. According to a forecast track prepared by analysts at the Goddard Space Weather Lab, the CME will hit Earth on July 14th around 10:20 UT (+/- 7 hours) and could spark strong geomagnetic storms. Sky watchers should be alert for auroras this weekend."

Not much chance for aurorae in Finland during "summer". There's not much darkness at night, unless it's really very cloudy - bright skies don't help with seeing aurorae. Anyway we've been mostly under clouds recently with a procession of low pressure systems and associated rainy fronts - clouds and rain don't help with seeing aurorae.

In 10 years, going out every night when the aurora forecast was listed as exceptionally high, we never saw an aurora once in Finland. From the look of some photos (from Hanko, for example) we missed them by less than 100km. The biggest enemy was clouds. Scuppered our meteor sightings too. And probably a lunar eclipse or 2.

The northern lights have never been seen in the southern hemisphere, you're thinking of the southern lights.The southern lights will never be visible in south-eastern europe.Due the inclination of the magnetic north pole, the northern lights are rarely seen further south than finland, and even sightings in the southernmost parts of finland are rare. As it's summer time, the skies are lighter than normal, even more so the further north you go, so I would be surprised if anyone in europe saw them at all.

Nope, the north pole, and your distance from it, is mostly irrelevant. What's more important is your distance from the *magnetic* north pole. Given that it's still up in Canada - you're way closer in NY state than Romania is. At the rate the pole seems to be moving, maybe towards the end of the century there will be some hope for it to be seen further south in Europe.

The CME launched toward Earth by yesterday's X-flare is moving faster than originally thought. Analysts at the Goddard Space Weather Lab have revised their forecast accordingly, advancing the cloud's expected arrival time to 09:17 UT (5:17 am EDT) on Saturday, July 14th. Weekend auroras are likely.

I won't lie, a fairly large part of me (the part where the evil genius lives) wants a very very powerful geomagnetic storm to devistate our powergrids, knock out communications, fry satelites, and cause general chaos and havok.

I understand that engineers often have antisocial tendencies, and I fully comprehend the ramifications of this unusual desire, but I still retain it.

More aptly, the Big Red Button on the TRS-80 Model III computer. When I was in 4th grade, they had those in the school computer lab. The teachers had taped paper with "do not press!" on top of the button. Of course, a 4th grader wants nothing more than to press it. Our tendency towards chaos, or at least the curiosity to see what arises from a change in the system, starts young.

That happens when you're still young, but.... when you're 2 clicks underground in an ancient alien stronghold, screwing around with what you believe to be a computer system while some large lumbering thing is pounding it's way through a 5 inch thick durasteel composite door to get to you, and there's a single red button out of all of them, encased under some form of very strong glass like substance, with big bold alien letters on it.... do NOT push it.

I won't lie, a fairly large part of me (the part where the evil genius lives) wants a very very powerful geomagnetic storm to devistate our powergrids, knock out communications, fry satelites, and cause general chaos and havok.

2) For the greater portion of humanity to survive we are dependent upon the machines and electronics that control our energy systems. Can you imagine 7 billion people forced to hunt for their food after the refrigerator warm up? Like the comic above, it wouldn't take long before we'd be hunting ourselves.

Something that bakes many a noodle is that a desire can be both wrong to indulge and normal* to have.

It's also far better than having those antisocial/destructive tendencies without the cognitive ability to properly identify and contain them.

*normal: as in, welcome to homo sapiens.

You know how various professions have trouble watching shows about said profession because of how badly the writers get it wrong? I wonder if engineers (and those of an engineering bent) have those "antisocial tendencies" precisel

a sociopath, by definition, cares only about themselves and does not feel any moral obligation to other people.

a sociopath would not ask the question to begin with. the very idea of wondering about the conflict would not occur to them, as there would be no conflict. to them, the destruction of the planet, as long as they stood to benefit from it in some way, could only be seen as beneficial.

this is not the case with my motivation for the desire, and my desire for input about the dichotomy of that

This is wrong. Solar irradiation at 1 AU is somewhere in the region of 1350W/m^2. The Earth has a diameter of approximately 6371000m, which is a disc of 1.27*10^14 m^2. This gives 1.72*10^17W or 0.172EW. Over a year, 365.25*86400s, this comes to 5.400.000EJ.

Wikipedia is wrong.

In fact, from a different page on Solar energy [wikipedia.org], "Photosynthesis captures approximately 3,000 EJ per year in biomass." Pretty impressive if solar irradiation is only 1,600EJ. And unlike the 1,600 EJ figure, this one actually comes with a useful citation.

I actually agree with him to a certain extent, but instead of a CME, I'd rather see an asteroid hit the earth. I don't actually want anyone to die; I'd like it to hit an uninhabited area such as Antarctica or Siberia (like the Tunguska Event). The reason is simple: I think we humans need a good kick in the pants to work on our space program, so we can deal with problems like this (and also so we can achieve other things, like extracting resources offworld), but it doesn't look like it's going to happen until people get a good wake-up call. We've had a bunch of near-misses, including one a few weeks ago IIRC, but we haven't had a good asteroid strike since Tunguska in the early 1900s. Maybe if another Tunguska-sized event happened, people would finally get a clue, realize that there's much bigger ones out there (such as Apophis, which really is on a collision course with us) and get serious about dedicating resources to space programs. The old saying is "necessity is the mother of invention", but the corollary to that is that humans don't usually bother preparing for anything unless they've learned the hard way that they need to.

Most of the reason for my desire for such an event is to spur investment in better infrastructure than the horribly inefficient and unreliable networks we have in place right now.

The power grids we have are well documented as being vulnerable, and are horribly inefficient compared to more modern technologies, but have the benefit of already being in place, and therefor "cheap".

A good sized CME impacting the magnetosphere would disrupt the powergrids in a cascade failure, causing global power out

Contrary to the opinions on the matter of many ACs here, the intent behind the desire is not simply to cause chaos for the sake of chaos, but to cause that chaos to spur positive innovation and better decison making on the part of mankind.

Yep, unfortunately, most of the time people don't bother to improve things until they're forced to, otherwise they become lazy and complacent. We made a ridiculous amount of progress in a small time in the fields of aviation and space travel back in the 40s-60s, going fro

1) Automotive. Cars don't look any different now than they did 10 years ago, and technologically they're pretty much the same. The fuel economy is slightly improved with some brands, mostly thanks to gasoline direct injection, though there's some concerns about how these engines do over long terms.2) Aviation. The only advances I see are a couple of space startups (SpaceX etc.) launching rockets and creating some prototype spacecraft. Tha

I can't tell you how many articles about some new "revolutionary" automotive engine I've seen over the past 20 years, and nothing ever comes of it, probably because it's all BS.

It's a conspiracy, man! The oil companies got a grip on the government.

There was this guy who invented an engine that, power for power, was roughly 50% more efficient than the ones commonly in use. Exxon offered to buy it, but the inventor said no; he figured they'd just lock it in a safe. Then weird things happened. He lost his job, then his house burned down only to find his insurance had been cancelled by persons unknown. He couldn't have sent the letter because he was out of the country.

He was telling me all this at the pub. I don't know how it ended up, he went to take a leak and never came back.

If you don't think there have been advancements in automotive technology you obviously haven't been paying attention. A lot of the advancement is in manufacturing processes which go unnoticed by the average person because they're so subtle. Some of it is technology what was originally only found in luxury cars but is now available in the cheapest economy cars.

Let's see what I can think of...1) Engine control systems2) Hybrid technology3) Somewhat practical all-electric technology4) Tighter tolerances in bod

"I'd like it to hit an uninhabited area such as Antarctica or Siberia (like the Tunguska Event)."

You know that people probably did die from the Tunguska blast (not that the Russian govt at the time cared about some remote peasants) and if one hit the same area today, there would be a lot more deaths since Siberia is more populated these days.

As for antarctica, well it may not kill many people but it would sure melt a lot of ice, and we would have ocean rise a lot faster than global warming predicted.

I'd rather see an asteroid hit the earth. I don't actually want anyone to die; I'd like it to hit an uninhabited area such as Antarctica or Siberia (like the Tunguska Event). The reason is simple: I think we humans need a good kick in the pants to work on our space program, so we can deal with problems like this

You vastly overestimate the thinking process of the average person. If a significant asteroid hit Earth, their thinking would be: "We've just had a big asteroid strike. The chances of a second one

I had similar desires for some kind of disaster, back when I was young and stupid.

I had no money and was looking at a lifetime of working for a living in a society with materialistic values I did not share. As far as I could tell, "the system" wasn't working for me, so I wanted to see it ended.

Fortunately for me, it did not end. If it did, I would have died right along with all the other millions of city-dwellers who would suddenly be without their influx of food. No farms+efficient food shipping = no food = starve to death or be eaten by starving cannibals (who will subsequently starve to death anyway). Sure, there are plenty of supermarkets in the city...all of which would be picked dry within a day. There is no viable source of food within a city that can supply the hordes of humans that dwell therein...it would be a grizzly end for all of us.

The system was working for me then just as it is working for me now...people across the globe are growing food for me, making clothes for me, generating electricity for me, building computers for me, and so on. Everything I DO like about life is built for me by the hands of other humans...working a job is what I do in return. Sure, a few rich assholes with a disgusting sense of entitlement get to indulge in extreme luxury at our expense, and it is frustrating, but even so, the deal we get is still awesome (when reflected-upon by a clear mind).

Grow up, weird_w, your disaster would be your end and the end of everything you love.

Our global society would be set back to 300 years ago, except no one has any experience living as a fucking pioneer; we're all air-conditioned and supermarket-fed. So everyone that doesn't have TEOTWAWKI preparations would die. And then most of the survivors would die of looters and starvation, and the looters would die of cholera and previously preventable illnesses.

So I find your opinion ignorant at best, sociopathic and homicidal at worst.

Heh. I have ammo, know how to hunt and skin, know how to preserve food, actually love the taste of squirrel, do my own garden and keep seeds up, understand how to make and maintain a well. Can rebuild old cars - ones without fancy electronical thingies.

And I'm a geek that earns a living as a programmer.

Granted, only a first generation American - but my parents and grandparents taught me how to not rely on supermarkets and stuff.

If the world fell apart, I'm mean enough to stick around for a long time.

the first thing i would do, is abandon my wood frame home. it poses to great a prospect for bands of looters and gangs of thugs. they are welcome to what is inside. i wont be home, and would not return.

I own guns too. And about everyone I know does as well. We all know how to garden, hunt, skin, and preserve food. You would be surprised at how many people know this stuff.

But here is probably what you are not thinking of, this late in the season, you are probably going to have a 3 month wait for anything seeded unless you already have a garden. If you already have one, you will have to worry about it being raided by your neighbors and desperate people who have families too. You might say, well, I'll guard

I don't, explicitly, 'require' modern technology. I *do* know how to live without it. It would be significantly harder, and I wouldn't have access to exotic resources and educational sources like I do now, but I can live without those.

Military trained, I have study survival events. Wrote a couple iof manuals, and trained pilot how to survive in enemy territoryClue: You wouldn't last, you are completely under prepared.A) Thousands of people will show up. DO you know how to navigate that and not get burned out of your home? Do you think waving a gun around will stopped a scared panicking crowd?B) Fires will emerge. Are you prepared to deal with the suddenly increase in hazardous particulate matter they will be in the air?C) Sickness? What

A) Dugouts dont burn, They are not directly visible from the surface either. My area does not flood. I know my area very well, and I live far from a population center. There is nothing here that people in a population center that are displaced would want. There is no reason for them to come here.

B) Particulate fallout in the air from fires can be combated reasonably effectively with a wetted cloth tied around the nose and mouth. I know how to create cloth. There are wild plants from which cloth was routinel

I am not willing to *Cause* a doomsday CME, but I do feel let down when a powerful one heads our way and it isnt life changing.

I have no such delusions that the skyfairy will abduct me in his 3-ring emerald green and fire belching UFO, A-la Ezekiel, nor that I will get to bang a bunch of inexperienced virgins who are there just because they are virgins, a la the koran. (really, why not just get a blowup doll if you dont care about the most important part of the woman,

The effects of a solar flair like that happen across a wide degree of speeds. We get hit by light and I assume other things like xrays etc first, but other things will travel slower. The mass ejection is the slowest part isn't it? So seeing as the earth moves, I don't see how we can possibly get hit by all of the components of the flair.

They make it sound like we got "bullseyed" for this incoming storm, when really the sun had to have "lead the target" by quite a distance right? Or are these events so w

While the news before the fact is great for those of us living some place with a chance of catching the aurora, I don't think there is any indication there will be strong geomagnetic storms. NOAA Space Weather Center [noaa.gov] is predicting only storm level of G1 with a chance of G2, which happens quite frequently. Usually if something big is coming, their alert timeline [noaa.gov] lights up with a lot more than a G1 or warning of A > 20. I've made a habit of taking the 10 seconds to check their alert page every time a relative links or talks about a story of some massive geomagnetic storm coming, and pretty much every time it shows (both before and after) that it was something minor that happens with a frequency of more than once a month.

This is 2012, FFS. We deserve an epic worldwide disaster, be it an attack by the sun, volcanoes unleashing eons worth of pent-up primordial energy, or accidental release of hyper-engineered bio-weapons.

The last event that caused a blackout was in 1989. Since then, more monitoring gear has been added and plans made for when this problem occurs.
The basic effect is that the solar wind induces DC currents in the earth, causing a huge ground loop between distant grounding points. This causes DC current to flow through AC high tension lines, which heats up transformers and causes some confusion in measurements. Those DC currents are constantly monitored. When DC flows are observed, the AC currents on the line have to be reduced to prevent transformer overheating. It's an operational problem, but not a disaster.

Run to the store, buy some chocolate, eat it quickly, SHUT DOWN EVERYTHING and then wrap it in the chocolate foil. Than wait 72 hours for the flare to fully pass. Use the time free from the internets to visit the library and read a book about the Earth magnetic field.

Sigh... we just finished cleaning up from yesterday. The European central bank says something. Loot the vending machines. The Fed says something. Loot the vending machines. Your team loses. Loot the vending machines. Your team wins. Loot the vending machines. Some whack job on the radio says the world is ending. You guessed it. Loot the vending machines. I'm beginning to think that you guys will use any excue just to... what? They're looting the vending machines again? What is it this time? Somebody installed Linux on the desktop? Holy crap. Fuck posting on Slashdot. I'm going to LOOT THE VENDING MACHINE.

That's all nice and smug coming from your armchair, but other than that, I'm not spending time debating this with some anonymous fuck. Whatever you say about yourself might as well be made up you heartless fuck.

So the standards of basic logic and actually backing up your claim don't apply to you... if you emotionally react strongly enough to something?

That sentence makes no sense, unless you were attempting to humorously bolster the claim that the entire continent of Africa is devoid of any modern technology. If the latter is true, that would be an erroneous claim.