Turning Crisis into Success in Germany

A recent opinion poll indicates that the far-right Alternative for Germany party is rapidly gaining ground, with its popular support reaching 15%, compared to around 5% a year ago. But, with an effective refugee-integration strategy, this dangerous trend can be reversed.

BERLIN – According to an early May opinion poll by ARD DeutschlandTREND, the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party’s popular support now stands at 15%, up from around 5% a year ago. Can this dangerous trend be reversed?

The AfD’s rise since last summer has been the direct result of the surge in the number of refugees – close to one million in 2015 – entering Germany. After all, the party has made opposition to admitting refugees the centerpiece of its platform, which also includes antagonism toward the European Union and a very conservative social program, to which an openly sectarian religious component was added at a May 3 party convention in Stuttgart.

Yet Germany’s broad political center continues to hold. The center-right Christian Democrats and their allies still have the support of about 33% of the electorate; the center-left Social Democrats have 20% support; and the Green Party is backed by some 13%. Even the Free Democrats have clawed their way back from hard times, and now have about 6% support.

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I agree with Kemal Dervis on most of the points he made, however, long term benefit? Refuge by its nature is a temporary thing so when the war in Syria ends as all wars do eventually the refugees return home either willingly or unwillingly.

Kemal Derviş, a former Turkish minister hopes that Germany will benefit more from the refugees than his country, "turning crisis into success." Despite support for the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD), he still thinks that the "broad political center" will survive next year's general election, allowing the incumbent government to continue to rule with a grand coalition, with - most likely - Angela Merkel remaining in power.
The AfD had won big in regional elections last March - the strongest showing for a right-wing populist party since World War II, given the fact that it didn't exist four years ago. Nevertheless it would be to rash to conclude that the party's victory was a result of a rejection of Merkel's policy. On the contrary, the civil society in Germany has proven to be robust, and a substantial majority of voters across all parties, except the AfD, embraces tolerance.
However it would be irresponsible of Merkel to ignore the concern of many Germans about her open-door policy, which has seen well over 1.1 million migrants enter the country in the past year or more. The author sees two scenarios that - one way or the other - will have an impact on Germany and the rest of the world.
He starts with the "bleak" outlook of a failure to "integrate the refugees socially and economically," leading to "political discontent, " while the refugees "become increasingly frustrated with their plight." They would be under the watchful of nationalists and populists, and anything they do to vent their anger could incite to " violence from both sides." A terrorist attack would only vindicate the popular belief that migrants pose a security threat. This would potentially weaken "the very fabric of German society." Islamophobia would become "fodder for religious extremists in the Middle East," confirming "their narrative of inevitable religious and civilizational conflict."
If Germany could turn the "challenge into another success," by integrating the refugees "quickly," and the country would "resume its path of moderate politics, social solidarity, and economic growth." There is hope that in the long run the refugees "could actually make a strong contribution to German prosperity." But it requires investment in educating and providing for them, which "remains a burden in the short term." For the moment, Germany's economy can still absorb the costs, but a recession could easily change the tide.
Indeed, a "successful integration," is a two-way street, that requires mutual understanding and reciprocity from both sides. The author says, "the refugees will have to accept the rule of German law, even if in some cases it does not make sense to them," saying that they and their host will have to work out how to co-exist peacefully, based on laws and rights. But he seems to emphasise more on the duty of the host rather than the obligation of the guests.
The author also points out that the "large existing community of former immigrants could be helpful in articulating and implementing that delicate balance, imperfect as it may have been at times." Does he realise that the roughly 3 million Turkish immigrants living in Germany who, according to studies by the Berlin Institute for Population and Development, are less effectively integrated on average than other immigrant groups. They are more likely than others to be poorly educated, underpaid and unemployed? No doubt both sides had been fooling themselves for decades, since the 1970s. Neither Germany nor its "guest workers" had anticipated that they would have to put up with each other for more than 10 years. When the Turks remained, both sides didn't make much effort to work policies out for a successful integration.
The author can forget the "need for some burden-sharing by European countries, as well as efforts to achieve a marked slowdown in the refugee flow, while upholding the human rights of those fleeing conflict and death." Unfortunately there is no mood among European leaders to help resolve the refugee crisis, as the EU is grappling with its political future.

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