Hairston and other space scientists believe the recent fireball in the skies above central Texas was a meteor and not satellite wreckage, but he says debris and objects orbiting the Earth will be around to create crash hazards for tens, if not hundreds of years.

“When objects collide in space, they produce a cloud of debris that spread out along the original orbit, and these debris threaten other functioning satellites,” Hairston said. “Something the size of a penny, or even much smaller, that is traveling at five miles a second can smash straight through another satellite and wreck havoc on electronics and other critical components.”

“The Air Force and government labs have developed sophisticated programs for predicting the future paths of these debris to see if they could hit the space shuttle, the International Space Station or other crucial spacecraft,” Hairston said. “But these models are only as good as the data about the atmosphere that go into them. CINDI is helping us map and give real-time information about the critical physical parameters these models need.”

According to Hairston, the vastness of space offers ample room for satellites, but the increasing amount of space debris makes the likelihood of future catastrophic collisions almost a certainty.

“A rare set of circumstances have to fall into place for two objects in space to collide—it is like hitting a bullet with a bullet,” Hairston said. “Had the Russian satellite and the Iridium satellite missed each other by only 1/1000th of a second, they’d have missed each other by 7 meters (close to 21 feet) and nothing would have happened. But now that one of the satellites has been turned into a cloud of space debris, it’s like hitting a bullet with a thousand pieces of high-speed buckshot. The odds of a collision go up.”

Hairston warned that the other 65 Iridium satellites and all other satellites that orbit at altitudes of about 500 miles are at an increased risk after last week’s collision, and this higher risk will last for several years.

“Around fifteen thousand objects consisting of satellites, pieces of debris and even tools and tool bags left in space are being constantly monitored to watch for potential collisions,” said Dr. Marc Hairston, research scientist at the UT Dallas William B. Hanson Center for Space Sciences.