Ferrablog

Thursday, November 04, 2004

Ugh.

That's about all I can say about this week's election results. Rather than wallow in defeat, I'm already looking ahead to 2008, and I've zeroed in on my preferred candidate: Gov. Mark Warner of Virginia. And to that end, I've started another blog specifically touting Warner. Yep, another blog. Just what I need, considering I update this one infrequently. But I need something constructive to do in the political advocacy department while we endure four more years of Inspector Clouseau Meets The Book of Revelations.

Monday, November 01, 2004

Stickin' to my prediction

Despite some ups and downs over the past 12 days, I'm sticking with the election prediction I made back on the 20th: Kerry by 2 points in the national vote, and 311-227 in the EC, defending all the Gore states and adding New Hampshire, Florida and Ohio. I've had some concerns about Kerry losing New Mexico and/or Iowa, but I think he'll hold on. In fact, I think it might be more likely that he instead pries a state like Nevada or Colorado loose from Bush.

I did have some doubts about Florida as well, but things look much better for Kerry in my state than they did 12 days ago. He's moved ahead here in several polls, including Gallup, Zogby and the NY Times Group "Florida poll" in the last few days. And according to these polls, he's up by 8-10 among those who have voted early. And if you ever wanted to gauge the motivation of one side versus the other, most of these folks voting early have had to endure lines of 2-5 hours to vote. My wife spent 2.5 hours on Saturday waiting. So the Kerry voters are more motivated it appears, and I see that spilling over to Tuesday.

UPDATE: Speaking of celebrity appearances, word has just gone out that Bruce Springsteen will be joining the Foo Fighters at a Kerry rally in Madison on Thursday. That clinches it, Wisconsin is definitely staying blue.

Monday, October 25, 2004

You're fired!

Throughout the 90s, it was nearly a perfectly running machine, with unprecedented success to boast about. And then at the turn of the century, it was turned over to a grossly unqualified incompetent who promptly ran it into the ground. Finally, enough was enough, and he was fired. Now all I need to do is to be able to type these exact words again in eight days.

Kerry surging.

The book on Kerry is that he's a good "closer", and recent trends in the polls and elsewhere show that this may truly be the case.

Although Bush started opening up small leads in the national polls in the aftermath of the third debate about 10 days ago, those leads have pretty much evaporated.

Exhibit A: Newsweek/MSNBC has the race narrowing from 50-44 Bush among likely voters to 48-46. And they're tied 46-46 among registered voters.

Exhibit B: ABC/Washington Post's tracking poll has the race now at 49-48 Bush from 51-46 earlier in the week.

Exhibit C: Bush is now only ahead of Kerry 47.6-47.2, in the latest Rasmussen tracking poll. And Rasmussen has a history of skewing Republican.

It should be interesting to see what CNN/Gallup comes in with later today; last week, they appeared to be a real outlier with a 52-44 Bush lead among likely voters.

Of course, the election isn't won by the popular vote, as Al Gore would readily tell you; it's the electoral college that really matters. And there's even more good news for Kerry from the two big states which will likely decide the election: Ohio and Florida.

In Ohio, a new Scripps poll shows Kerry up 50-46 among likely voters, and 49-43 among registered voters. As I pointed out in an earlier post, Ohio is pretty much in the Kerry column at this point, but it's nice to see Kerry hitting the 50 percent mark.

That leaves Florida, a true must-win state for Bush. But the trends are against him here as well. A brand new St. Pete Times/Miami Herald poll has the state tied 46-46 among likely voters. Even more significant than the tie is the fact Bush is only pulling 46%. Consequently, The Sunshine State can be said to be leaning Kerry at this point. And it didn't hurt that the Republican-leaning Orlando Sentinel endorsed Kerry in the today's edition, marking the first time that the Sentinel has endorsed a Democrat since Lyndon Johnson in 1964. If Kerry wins Florida and Ohio, none of the other swing states (IA, WI, NM, etc.) matter.

And the Bush campaign is quite cognizant of this as well. There's a very interesting and revealing story in today's Washington Post that shows the near-panic that has set in over there. Despite the non-descript headline, these remarks from a campaign insider are quite telling:

GOP officials who talked to Bush-Cheney campaign leaders said the leaders have grown more worried about Ohio, Florida and other key states where Bush lacks a lead with just 10 days until the election. A poll by Ohio University's Scripps Survey Research Center, completed Thursday night, found Kerry leading 49 percent to 43 percent among registered voters, with a margin of error of five percentage points.

...

One Republican official described the mood at the top of the campaign as apprehensive. " 'Grim' is too strong," the official said. "If we feel this way a week from now, that will be grim."
...

The Republican official said polling for Bush showed him in a weaker position than some published polls have indicated, both nationally and in battlegrounds. In many of the key states, the official said, Bush is below 50 percent, and he is ahead or behind within the margin of sampling error -- a statistical tie.

"There's just no place where they're polling outside the margin of error so they can say, 'We have this state,' " the official said. "And they know that an incumbent needs to be outside the margin of error."

And according to ABC's The Note, Bush is going to end up begging for his job in ads this coming week:

..(The Bush campaign has) this about the final Bush ad, unconfirmed by ABC News at this writing: "The president plans to conclude his campaign with an advertisement in which Mr. Bush, recounting the trauma of the nation these past three years, makes a personal appeal to be returned to office."

Friday, October 22, 2004

The candidate who cried "wolf".

the AP says the spot is, "reminiscent of Ronald Reagan's 'Bear' ad that was credited with framing the 1984 race, (and) shows a dense forest from above. Scurrying is heard as the camera plunges deeper into the woods and pans sunlight-speckled trees. Shadows move through the brush before animals are seen amid the forest. Then, the ad reveals the type of animal: a pack of wolves rest on a hill. As the commercial closes, the cunning and ruthless predators stir, crawling toward the camera."

How ironic that BC04 would literally cry "wolf", after having done so metaphorically for months now, with their politically-motivated and politically-timed terror alerts.

The Democrats are responding with eagles and ostriches; according to ABC News, the DNC ad states: "The eagle sours high above the earth; the ostrich buries its head in the sand. The eagle knows when it's time to change course; the ostrich just stands in its place. Given these challenging times, shouldn't we be the eagle again?"

I say the Democrats could run a couple of other animal response ads:

"Chimps", in which a bunch of chimps (made up to resemble Bush, Cheney et al) sitting around a table with a map of the middle east on the wall starting throwing their feces at it, with the feces landing on Iraq, while a large gorilla (with an Osama beard) gets away and runs out the door.

The tagline could say "While President Bush and his cronies monkeyed around with our national security, Osama bin Laden and Al Qaeda got away" or something like that.

(I suppose to get it aired, they'd have to substitute tomatoes or something for feces, although it wouldn't be as appropriate).

Or they could hire Joe Flaherty to reprise his Count Floyd character. They could show an excerpt from "Wolves" and Count Floyd would howl and go "oooh..isn't that scary, kids?" and then say, "but not as scary as what George W. Bush has done to this country, etc. etc."

Oh well, perhaps Bush and Kerry should schedule a fourth debate, to be shown exclusively on Animal Planet.