Survey of macroeconomic forecasts - April 2012

Survey of macroeconomic forecasts

The macroeconomic scenario of the Convergence Programme, macroeconomic frameworks of the State Budget and the Budgetary Outlook and MoF forecasts are regularly compared with the results of macroeconomic indicators survey among important relevant institutions (the so-called Colloquium). The results of the 33rd Colloquium, which took place in April 2012, are based on the forecasts of 15 institutions (MoF, MPO, MPSV, CNB, Ceska sporitelna, CSOB, Komercni banka, Liberalni institut, Economics Institute of the Academy of Sciences of the Czech Republic, Patria Finance, Generali PPF Asset Management, Raiffeisenbank, The Union of Czech Production Co-operatives, Confederation of Industry of the Czech Republic, UniCredit Bank). To make the survey more representative, the forecasts of the EC (February 2012 Interim Forecast) and the IMF (April 2012 World Economic Outlook) have been added.

The aim of the Colloquium was to get an idea of the views regarding the expected development of our economy and to assess the key tendencies within the horizon of years 2012-2015, with the years 2014 and 2015 seen as an indicative outlook. Key indicators and the last MoF forecast are summed up in Tables 1 and 2.

The basic trends of development in 2012 and 2013, envisaged in the current MoF Macroeconomic Forecast, are fully consistent with the forecasts of other institutions. The comparison for the years 2014 and 2015 is complicated by the fact that this period is not covered by the forecasts of all institutions (the whole period 2012-2015 is covered, at least for some indicators, by forecasts of 8 institutions). For these years, therefore, the average of forecasts is significantly biased by just two forecasts that, maybe out of fears from unresolved crisis in the eurozone, foresee a stagnation of the Czech economy as the most likely scenario.

2012

2013

min.

average

max.

MoF CR

min.

average

max.

MoF CR

Assumptions

GDP of EA12

real growth in %

-0,5

-0,2

0,5

-0,3

0,5

1,0

1,6

0,7

Crude oil Brent

USD/barrel

110

116

123

115

107

117

130

113

3M PRIBOR

average in %

1,0

1,2

1,6

1,2

0,9

1,4

2,3

1,2

YTM of 10Y gov. bonds

average in %

3,2

3,4

3,6

3,4

3,2

3,6

3,9

3,5

CZK/EUR exchange rate

24,4

24,8

25,0

25,0

22,9

24,1

25,2

24,9

USD/EUR exchange rate

1,28

1,31

1,35

1,30

1,25

1,30

1,39

1,30

Main indicators

Gross domestic product

real growth in %

-0,5

0,1

0,5

0,2

0,0

1,6

2,5

1,3

Contr. of change in inventories

percentage points

-1,6

-0,2

0,4

0,3

-0,5

0,1

0,6

0,0

Contr. of foreign balance

percentage points

-0,5

0,9

2,2

1,0

0,4

1,1

3,0

0,8

Consumption of households

real growth in %

-1,3

-0,6

0,3

-0,4

-0,9

0,6

1,5

0,2

Consumption of government

real growth in %

-3,7

-1,7

0,3

-3,7

-1,5

-0,4

1,0

-0,5

Fixed capital formation

real growth in %

-1,8

-0,3

2,1

-0,5

-1,9

1,3

3,6

2,1

GDP deflator

growth in %

0,5

1,6

2,3

2,0

0,8

1,6

2,7

1,4

Inflation rate (aop)

in %

2,4

3,3

3,6

3,3

1,5

2,2

3,0

2,3

Employment

growth in %

-0,6

-0,3

0,0

-0,5

-0,7

0,0

0,7

0,1

Unemployment rate (LFS)

in %

6,5

7,1

8,9

7,0

6,2

7,1

9,1

7,2

Wage bill (domestic concept)

nom. growth in %

0,1

1,8

4,0

1,5

0,1

2,7

4,7

2,6

BoP – current account

in % of GDP

-4,2

-2,5

-1,2

-2,4

-4,0

-2,3

-1,2

-2,3

Table 1: Results of the survey for the years 2012 and 2013

Source: Survey respondents, MoF calculations

2014

2015

min.

average

max.

MoF CR

min.

average

max.

MoF CR

Assumptions

GDP of EA12

real growth in %

0,3

1,2

1,8

1,4

0,3

1,3

1,9

1,8

Crude oil Brent

USD/barrel

100

118

136

115

100

118

148

115

3M PRIBOR

average in %

1,3

1,8

2,4

1,3

1,5

2,4

3,1

1,5

YTM of 10Y gov. bonds

average in %

3,5

3,9

4,2

4,0

3,6

4,1

4,4

4,4

CZK/EUR exchange rate

22,0

23,6

25,0

24,7

21,3

23,4

25,0

24,6

USD/EUR exchange rate

1,23

1,30

1,35

1,30

1,19

1,27

1,30

1,30

Main indicators

Gross domestic product

real growth in %

0,0

1,9

3,0

2,2

0,0

2,0

3,5

2,8

Contr. of change in inventories

percentage points

-1,2

-0,2

0,3

0,2

-0,5

0,0

0,2

0,2

Contr. of foreign balance

percentage points

-0,1

0,7

2,4

0,8

0,0

0,7

2,4

0,5

Consumption of households

real growth in %

-1,0

1,3

2,6

2,0

-1,0

1,2

2,8

2,8

Consumption of government

real growth in %

-1,8

0,0

1,7

-1,8

-0,2

0,3

1,0

-0,2

Fixed capital formation

real growth in %

-1,9

1,6

3,3

2,8

-1,9

1,8

3,9

3,2

GDP deflator

growth in %

0,7

1,5

2,3

1,4

0,6

1,6

2,2

1,5

Inflation rate (aop)

in %

1,3

2,1

3,3

1,8

1,6

2,2

3,4

2,0

Employment

growth in %

-0,2

0,0

0,3

0,2

-0,5

0,0

0,4

0,4

Unemployment rate (LFS)

in %

6,1

7,2

8,9

7,1

6,8

7,3

8,0

6,9

Wage bill (domestic concept)

nom. growth in %

0,2

3,0

4,7

4,7

0,2

3,2

4,6

4,4

BoP – current account

in % of GDP

-4,4

-2,5

-1,2

-2,2

-5,3

-3,1

-1,2

-3,8

Table 2: Results of the survey for the years 2014 and 2015

Source: Survey respondents, MoF calculations

The main trends of macroeconomic development in 2012 and 2013 can be summed up as follows:

On average, the institutions expect the Czech economy to stagnate this year, with GDP growing by mere 0.1 %. In 2013, economic output should increase by 1.6 %. The MoF forecast is in line with the prognoses of other institutions.

Consumer prices will be influenced by changes in indirect taxes, mainly VAT. According to the participating institutions, inflation rate (aop) should reach 3.3 % in 2012 and 2.2 % in 2013. The MoF forecast is of almost the same view.

A modest dip in employment, which is on average envisaged by the institutions for this year, should be followed by stagnation in 2013. This development is consistent with the MoF forecast.

In participating institutions' view, the unemployment rate should stay slightly above, but close to, 7 % in both 2012 and 2013. The MoF forecast differs from the average of participating institutions' forecasts only marginally.

According to the current forecasts, growth of the total wage bill should accelerate from 1.8 % in 2012 to 2.7 % in 2013. The MoF forecast is in line with this tendency, though the wage bill growth is expected to be lower in both years.

The next Colloquium will take place in November 2012.

Overview of indicators

Graphs 1-18 show past and expected development of individual indicators. For comparison, consensus forecasts of two previous Colloquiums are also included. Extreme forecasts of indicators (min. and max. columns in the tables above) form the boundaries of the highlighted area.

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The department prepares for the ministry the following: macroeconomic and fiscal analyses, macroeconomic and fiscal forecasts, mid-term fiscal policy scenarios, and public finance development forecasts... more >