When will cooler weather arrive in Southwest Florida?

Fall officially started two weeks ago, but so far, there hasn't been one puff of that cool crisp autumn air in our part of Florida. Nope.

Here we are a week into October, and we're still talking about tropical storms, hurricanes and rainy season.

So, one might start to wonder: when will we finally get some cooler weather in Southwest Florida? When will humidity levels become more comfortable?

The first place to turn to address this question is climatology. Or simply, based on historical records, at what point do we see our first night in the 60s, 50s, 40s, etc...?

Our records go as far back as 1902, a sample size of 115 years, which should give us a pretty good idea.

Based on these numbers, the average first morning low at 60° or below doesn't occur for Fort Myers until Oct. 26.

Of course, some years the cooler weather arrives later, others earlier.

Last year, for example, we got our first night in the 50s on Oct. 23. One year, however, the first cooldown didn't come until the first week of December 1986. The earliest we've had temperatures dip to 60 or below was Oct. 1, 1920.

If you live farther north, the first cool night can arrive a little sooner. Punta Gorda, for example, saw its first night at 60 or below around Oct. 21 (on average).

If you're yearning for weather that's even cooler, let's say at 50 or below, we don't normally see that until roughly November 18.

Again, that's an average date based on the last 115 years of local climate data.

We can also examine some of our long-range forecast models to see if there are any hints of a cold front coming down the pike.

Based on our two primary global forecast models, the GFS and European, the overall weather pattern does not favor a cold front making it to Southwest Florida over the next two weeks, but there are at least some indications this pattern may try to shift toward the end of the month.

Keep in mind, however, these long-range forecast models become far less reliable as you go farther into the future.

There's also some data pointing toward warmer-than-average weather for the next three months.

Based on the three-month temperature outlook from the Climate Prediction Center, South Florida has higher odds of seeing above-average temperatures for the next three months, but this is not necessarily an indicator of our first cold front. It just implies our temperatures will be generally warmer than average.

These forecasts can often change, so keep checking back for updates on the arrival of cooler weather in Southwest Florida.

In the meantime, you may have to rely on some pumpkin-spiced lattes or perhaps sitting in a little more traffic on US-41 as a reminder that the cool-weather season isn't too far away.

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