What we learned from Week 1

Published 7:00 am, Saturday, September 17, 2011

I'm a big believer that 77.02 percent of the time you can predict the trajectory of a sports season, TV season/series or movie from the first game/episode/10 minutes.

I realize there are some exceptions to this rule, and roughly 22.98 percent of the time those initial judgements fall flat, but I find the NFL can fairly accurately be predicted by Week 1 performances.

Let's take a quick look at how this theory holds up compared to last year's Week 1 performances.

Of the Week 1 winners, all but two of the 2010 playoff teams won. The two losers? The Colts and Jets. I had the Colts pegged as missing the postseason anyway last season, but apparently I confused last year with this year. The Jets lost to another playoff team, so that becomes a bit difficult to ascribe such a small measure to. However, the Jets only lost by a point (10-9) so it would be fair to say they were obviously a good team, they just got edged out.

Anyway, through my largely unscientific proof and ridiculously small sample size of one season, I feel as though I've made my point enough to authoritatively predict what we've learned about this season from Week 1.

First, the two teams that everyone thought could be playoff bound are (possibly) doomed.

Let's start with the riskiest of all these predictions: the Pittsburgh Steelers. It's hard to say the AFC champs from a year ago might be in trouble, but did you see them get dominated? Plus, since 1999, eight of 12 Super Bowl losers missed the next playoffs; seven finished .500 or worse; and 10 failed to win a playoff game. I'll let that sink in for a second. Maybe it's not so risky after all.

Then again, it's the Steelers. They are like a playoff cockroach. They cannot be killed.

Second, the Atlanta Falcons. I was partially on the Falcons-are-making-the-leap bandwagon, but I've since leapt off. Then again, their division could be up for grabs with the Saints being on the cusp of being in this group. They only got a pass because they lost to the Packers, who are still my favorite to repeat as champs.

The next thing we learned: The new kickoff rule=awesome.

Who knew? Everyone who is obsessed with football enough to have an opinion on the new kickoff rule was certain it would just result in every possession starting at the 20. We might as well get rid of kickoffs altogether was the most common reflection.

Little did we know that: a) kickers aren't idiots and decided to kick it really high to make guys return it from inside the five; and, b) return guys like the danger of running straight at 10 guys wanting to eat them.

This next lesson is going to take Cowboys fans through the five stages of grief, so skip the next seven paragraphs if you are a Cowboys fan and have heart or anger issues: Tony Romo is as good in the clutch as Sarah Jessica Parker is in any major motion picture role. (In case you, for some reason, enjoy watching Sarah Jessica Parker smugly delivering lines for an hour and a half, phoning it in because of the bazillion dollars she made from "Sex in the City," then that comparison was meant as an insult.)

My solution for this problem? If the game is close, bring in Kitna. (To complete our above simile, replace Parker with Sandra Bullock in every movie she's ever been in and watch the box office earnings go up.)

At least Kitna would throw it out of bounds instead of right to Darrelle Revis.

Every time Romo makes a moronic late-game play, I look at my best friend and huge Cowboys' fan and tell him the Cowboys should have traded Romo and figured out a way to get Cam Newton. Next season I get to add Andrew Luck to this insult.

Also, is everyone in agreement that indefensible throws, turnovers or generally boneheaded plays by any player in clutch situations should henceforth be referred to as Romos?

For example: Dude, you totally had a chance with that girl at the bar before you pulled a massive Romo.

A synonym which would have a connotation more apt to describing celebrities: A Lohan.

One thing on the list I didn't really learn, but had confirmed for me. That is that the Lions are going to be improved. Now I didn't say good, but they will be improved.

The Lions are handicapped by a couple of things: 1. They're in a tough division with the Bears and Packers, which will make it hard for them to be in the playoff hunt. Stick them in the NFC West and I would probably label them as my favorites to win the division.

2. They have a tough schedule, which means they will likely end up looking mediocre. Plus, once Matthew Stafford figures out which injury he wants to make him miss most of the season, the Lions will struggle.

Lastly, you know what lesson I didn't learn from Week 1? Who is going to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl. I picked the Jets two weeks ago, but after needing some late-game Romos and a blocked punt for a TD to pull off the win, I'm not sure if they've got the stuff to go all the way. Then again, they could be one of the Week 1 exceptions.

I would say the Patriots, Jets and Chargers all have a good shot to be the AFC representative, but going off of a short Week 1 measuring stick I would hedge my bets with the Ravens. (I threw up in my mouth a little when I typed that.)

So, is the intrigue of the NFL season gone now? Of course not, but when you look back at the season and 10 of 12 playoff teams proved they had what it took in Week 1, don't say I didn't tell you so.