Europe|Angela Merkel Spared Disaster, and German Coalition Talks to Continue

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Angela Merkel Spared Disaster, and German Coalition Talks to Continue

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Chancellor Angela Merkel with Horst Seehofer, the leader of the Bavarian Christian Democrats, left, and Martin Schulz, the leader of the German Social Democrats, after coalition talks in Berlin this month.CreditCreditSteffi Loos/Getty Images

BONN, Germany — Chancellor Angela Merkel of Germany escaped political disaster on Sunday, at least for now, and inched a step closer to forming a new government after the Social Democrats voted in favor of entering formal coalition talks with her conservative camp.

This latest episode in Germany’s agonizing saga of political uncertainty raised cautious hopes that a new administration might be sworn in by Easter. But a major wild card remains: The Social Democrats’ grass roots — rebellious after sharing power with Ms. Merkel led to their worst election result in more than 80 years — must approve any final coalition deal. Sunday’s vote, backed by 56 percent of party delegates, was tight.

“The fight is not over!” warned the bright-red banner of one activist outside the party congress in the western city of Bonn.

Still, Sunday’s vote met with a collective sigh of relief in the corridors of power in Berlin and neighboring countries, which have been impatient for the continent’s most influential country to turn its attention back to the world.

Ms. Merkel announced from Berlin that “the path is free for coalition talks.” Urging for “a responsible climate, despite all of the divisive issues,” she acknowledged that negotiations would not be easy. “There is a lot of work ahead of us,” she said.

Four months after Germany’s inconclusive parliamentary elections, President Emmanuel Macron of France needs Ms. Merkel’s support to help push through ambitious overhauls to protect the eurozone against further financial crises.

Britain wants the chancellor’s attention on talks over its negotiations to leave the European Union, known as Brexit. And across Europe, countries rely on German leadership on pressing issues like migration and defense.

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Delegates held up their voting cards during the congress on Sunday.CreditPatrik Stollarz/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images

With national elections in France and Germany out of the way, and Britain’s departure from the European Union set for March 2019, this year had been billed as a window of opportunity for substantial progress in Europe, said Daniela Schwarzer, the director of the German Council on Foreign Relations in Berlin. But every day spent in a German limbo narrows that space.

“The window is tight,” said Ms. Schwarzer, who predicted that a government would be formed by March at the earliest. “We need to make the most of the progress before the summer break.”

Come fall, much of Europe’s energy will be absorbed by the final leg of the Brexit talks. And inside Germany, a hard-fought Bavarian election would mean Ms. Merkel’s conservative sister party, which has been losing votes to the euroskeptic Alternative for Germany, may be in no mood to make concessions on overhauls in Europe.

For Ms. Merkel, securing another coalition with the Social Democrats would provide an opportunity to shape her legacy on European issues and begin grooming a successor, which she has so far not done.

“It would be her fourth and last term, but her chance to go down in history as a European chancellor,” said Andrea Römmele, a professor of political science at the Hertie School of Governance.

Europe’s future has also been a central rallying cry of Martin Schulz, the Social Democrats’ embattled leader, in favor of another coalition — even though he ran against Ms. Merkel on a platform of “never” joining her in government again.

“We are deciding which path our country and Europe will go,” Mr. Schulz, who served as president of the European Parliament from 2012 until early 2017, told delegates in Bonn.

But some warned that another coalition straddling the center left and center right could be a short-term fix with a high long-term cost: It would elevate the far-right Alternative for Germany as the biggest opposition party in Parliament.

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Martin Schulz, leader of the Social Democrats, at a party congress in Bonn, Germany, on Sunday.CreditMaja Hitij/Getty Images

“It is suicidal,” said Hilde Mattheis, a lawmaker who voted against coalition talks on Sunday. In her state, Baden-Württemberg, Alternative for Germany has overtaken the Social Democrats.

“We need to be a bulwark against the far-right in opposition,” she said.

In the two years since Ms. Merkel opened Germany’s door to more than a million migrants, the country’s political landscape has changed drastically, and much of the chancellor’s ability to forge consensus has eroded.

In the September election, her party, the center-right Christian Democratic Union, had its worst showing since the Federal Republic of Germany was founded in 1949. An earlier attempt to form a coalition government, with the free-market Free Democrats and the Greens, failed after four weeks of discussions late last year.

A second rejection, by another major party, would have amounted to “a vote of no confidence,” said Henrik Enderlein, a professor of political economy at the Hertie School and director of the Jacques Delors Institute in Berlin.

The arrival of the Alternative for Germany in the national Parliament after the September vote has made forming a government much harder. There are now lawmakers from seven political parties, and traditional postwar coalitions on the left and right no longer have a majority.

Both the Christian Democrats and the center-left Social Democrats have lost ground to the political extremes in recent years, and the collapse of voter support for the center left to 20 percent — the lowest level since 1933 — has raised existential fears among Social Democrats.

Governing with their traditional rivals on the right for eight of the past 12 years has blurred the lines between the two camps. When the Social Democrats first joined Ms. Merkel’s conservatives in government, in 2005, the party received 34 percent of the vote.

“This is an existential debate for the party,” said Emmanuel Richter, a professor of political science at the University of Aachen. “The party suffers from an identity crisis. It has no clear voter base anymore, no clear link to those who feel left behind and neglected.”

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People opposed to a coalition between the Social Democratic Party and the Christian Democrats protested in Bonn on Sunday.CreditSascha Schuermann/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images

Going into another coalition with the conservatives would postpone a fundamental debate about the party’s future direction for another four years, Mr. Richter said.

And by then it might be too late. “People think that vote share can’t go any lower, but it can,” he said.

The internal soul-searching was palpable on Sunday in the congress center in Bonn, the former capital of West Germany in the Rhine Valley, where many of Germany’s oldest myths and hero-legends are based. About half of the speakers passionately argued in favor of going into government. The other half were ardently against.

“We have a responsibility before German citizens who want to feel well governed,” said Stephan Weil, the Social Democrats’ leader in the state of Lower Saxony, where he was recently re-elected governor. “If you’re not on the pitch, you can’t score a goal.”

Marc Dietzschkau, a Social Democrats spokesman in the Saxon Parliament, countered: “Voters voted against a grand coalition in September.”

When, shortly after 4 p.m., the 642 party delegates were asked to vote by a show of hands, the result was too tight to discern. A count followed, showing that 362 had voted in favor and 279 against, with one abstention.

For those leading the opposition to another coalition, the campaign continues.

“We cannot go into another election campaign where people tell us in the streets, ‘I can’t see any difference between you and the C.D.U.,’” said Kevin Kühnert, the leader of the Social Democrats’ youth movement, who spent the past week canvassing the country and asking delegates to reject coalition talks.

Few experts dare to predict what decision members might make once a completed coalition deal is put before them — or what exactly would follow if they rejected it.

“It is impossible to predict what comes next,” said Ms. Schwarzer of the German Council on Foreign Relations. “This is not how we know Germany.”

A version of this article appears in print on , on Page A9 of the New York edition with the headline: Coalition Talks in Germany Lift Hopes a Government Will Come Together. Order Reprints | Today’s Paper | Subscribe