Entertainment

6 Ways to Anticipate the Future of Digital Behavior

"How do we observe the future?" So began the presentation of Duane Bray, partner and head of IDEO's global digital business, at our Mashable Connect conference in Orlando, Fla., last weekend.

IDEO is a firm that solves problems through "human-centered" design. Its clients span the business, government, education, healthcare and social sectors. The company was founded in Palo Alto, Calif. in 1991, and employs more than 550 people in 10 different offices in the U.S., Europe and Asia. Bray has been with the firm since 1995, minus a brief stint at Pentagram Design in 2000.

Bray says he's no futurologist, but he did point to some signs — namely, current human behaviors — that can help us understand what the future might look like.

From Data Trails to Collective Intelligence

First, Bray looked at the formation of data trails. Apps like Google Maps, Yelp and Foursquare have imposed an ever-expanding layer of data over physical spaces. We're not the first species to do that, Bray pointed out: Ants use phermones to communicate and create trails to food sources for other ants. Our use of data-driven services is helping us develop a similar collective intelligence among humans.

In the future, Bray asked, how might we navigate places by the graffiti of data trails? How might we recall our past experiences, or those of our friends, with a place? How can we build a single place that gives us access to this network of data, instead of requiring the use of separate apps for traffic, food, reviews, images and thoughts from friends?

From Single to Multi-Threaded Narratives

Next, Bray pointed to shifting modes of conversation. He showed a photo of a row of people holding champagne classes in a chauffeured car. Most of the people were looking at their phones, seemingly entirely disconnected from each other. But, Bray said, they were actually having conversations with each other on their phones, checking into the "WinoWagon" on Foursquare and commenting on photos others in the car had just posted to Instagram. Online connectedness, Bray argued, is making our conversations more complex and multi-threaded. It's also capturing and sharing the narrative of group experiences in a different way.

In the future, how might we use multi-threaded narratives to generate entirely new forms of content? Bray asked. How might we provide ways to navigate or map multiple narrative threads, or be able to see the impact that one conversation has on another? Another challenge, too, is overcoming the feeling of disconnect we can experience when conversations transcend time and medium.

From Singular to Mosaic Identities

Lastly, Bray looked at how the web is shaping and fragmenting our sense of personal identity. He pointed to the selection of cartoon-like avatars to represent and — in the case of one 18-year-old online poker player, who went by the name of "Grandma Rose" — misrepresent ourselves in virtual environments. He pulled up a boy's handwritten list of potential screennames, featuring names like "The Dunkster" and "Punk of Funk," alongside names he labeled "stupid:" "Eskimo Man" and "Loaf Man." He also showed two photos of teenage girls who were rated equally attractive on an online rating service. But the girl playing a guitar in her photo got far more messages than the girl who simply submitted a headshot, Bray said, because the photo with the guitar told a narrative.

The web is replacing the idea of a singular identity with mosaic identities, Bray said. In the future, how might we allow for better feedback loops about how others perceive and engage with our identities? How could we ensure that we not subjected to complex identity management?

Six Approaches for Observing the Future

Bray didn't offer any answers to these questions, but he did suggest six approaches for seeking out the future of digital behavior.

Get out of your comfort zone. Try out new products or services, even if you’re not sure how they relate to you. It might help you get a feel for patterns or trends. And if you’re creating things that others will use, get out of the office and into their world.

Magnify the edges through extremes. Don’t stick with the middle of the bell curve — look for extreme fans, the disenfranchised, people who have different perspectives. Often, it’s the edge cases that can be most inspirational.

Explore outside of your field or industry for analogous behaviors. One of the biggest limitations people have today is that they only study what happens in their own fields. Look for examples outside your field and see what ideas or solutions exist there.

Create human-centered view. Map out what you’re working on from the perspective of different people. Use the map to help you document actual experiences, and to identify steps that can be improved.

Try it on for size. This is a chance to role play. Spend a week immersing yourself in the tools, spaces or experiences of others, and identify what you can learn from that experience.

Get tangible: Introduce and encourage experiments. Have a potentially good idea? Make it tangible (rough and ready is okay) and take it into the world as an experiment. Ask people to try it out and improve it. And take feedback to make the next version of your idea even better.

Mashable Connect 2012: Day 3

Exhibitor Hall

Exhibitor Hall

Breakfast Provided

Joe Trippi

Author and activist Joe Trippi spoke about how politics and digital are interacting, and if political decisions will change the future of the digital world.

Joe Trippi

Inside The Atlantic: Getting Profitable By Going Digital First

Mashable reporter Lauren Indvik spoke with Scott Havens, the senior VP of Financial and Digital Operations of The Atlantic, on their digital-first publishing model.

Joe Fernandez

Stacy Green

Henry Timms

Henry Timms, Deputy Executive Director of New York City's 92Y, spoke in a talk titled "New Media, New Technology & the 'New Power'" on Saturday afternoon.

Henry Timms

Duane Bray

Duane Bray, partner at design firm IDEO, gave the final Connect talk, entitled "Indications of the Future: What Today’s Digital Experiences Can Tell Us About Tomorrow".

Duane Bray

Duane Bray

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