Which of the following best describes your opinion on gay marriage: gay couples should be allowed to legally marry, or gay couples should be allowed to form civil unions but not legally marry, or there should be no legal recognition of a gay couple's relationship?

Gay couples should be allowed to legally marry .................................................40%Gay couples should be allowed to form civil unions but not marry ......................31%There should be no legal recognition of a gay couple's relationship ...................27%

If there was an election for Congress today, would you vote for the Democratic or Republican candidate from your district?

It really interesting to look at the PPP opinion polls. Since they have become the in-house pollster for the Daily Kos they have pretty consistently produced poll results more favorable to the Democrats than most other polls.

It really interesting to look at the PPP opinion polls. Since they have become the in-house pollster for the Daily Kos they have pretty consistently produced poll results more favorable to the Democrats than most other polls.

It really interesting to look at the PPP opinion polls. Since they have become the in-house pollster for the Daily Kos they have pretty consistently produced poll results more favorable to the Democrats than most other polls.

It really interesting to look at the PPP opinion polls. Since they have become the in-house pollster for the Daily Kos they have pretty consistently produced poll results more favorable to the Democrats than most other polls.

The results of PPP contradict you. They are one of the best out there and got almost all elections right so far this cycle and also within the MoE.

You shouldn't use Gallup to prove variations in samples either, because Gallup wasn't really good in 2008 and they collected the party ID over half a year.

Sorry, but, the further out PPP is from elections, the more left-leaning their polls are.

Zogby has had similiar results, having weird polls far out, and becoming more rational near elections.

Methodological changes do matter.

Next, you can look at the exit polls for partisan identification (favors Republicans in Colorado) ,since you seem to dislike Gallup and be blind to PPP's faults.

No word about Rasmussen ?

Rasmussen also used to be much more Republican early on and then moderate their results closer to election day.

Also, PPP doesn't weight according to party ID, but rely on self-ID (of what the poll respondents actually say).

And because polls are just snapshots in time, who can tell what the turnout might look like right now ?

Example: The current voter registration in Colorado is something like 33% R, 32% D, 35% I.

If the election were to be held today, it could be that of the 33% Republicans only 70% turn out and of Democrats 80% and of Independents lets say 60%.

That CHANGES the composition of the sample so that there are actually MORE Democrats in there than Republicans, even though they have a slight registration advantage.

Who tells us that in Colorado it could not be the case that Democrats are more likely to participate in a phone poll or actually turn out in greater numbers than Republicans ? The Colorado GOP isn't in really good shape either. So PPP's result for this moment could be accurate.

BTW, Democrats have recently caught up to Republicans in Colorado when it comes to registration. The gap was much larger 8 years or 4 years ago and depending on how effective the registration drives are next year, I could see Democrats overtaking Republicans ahead of the 2012 elections.

However, they DO control the state legislature and had a pickup in the House.

It was nice to see you acknowledge that in voter registration there are more Republicans in Colorado than Democrats, which both Gallup and Edison results support, and PPP disagrees with!

Hmm.

I didn't say that Democrats have necessarily a significantly higher turnout rate than Republicans in Colorado, but that at the moment it could be this way because the Colorado GOP sucks and because of more and more minorities registering as Democrats in Colorado.

After all there were 5-6% more Democrats turning out last year.

But thereīs also the margin of error in the PPP poll (which is 4.5%), so you can also say that the spread between Dems and GOP could be lower. Who knows ?

However, they DO control the state legislature and had a pickup in the House.

It was nice to see you acknowledge that in voter registration there are more Republicans in Colorado than Democrats, which both Gallup and Edison results support, and PPP disagrees with!

Hmm.

I didn't say that Democrats have necessarily a significantly higher turnout rate than Republicans in Colorado, but that at the moment it could be this way because the Colorado GOP sucks and because of more and more minorities registering as Democrats in Colorado.

After all there were 5-6% more Democrats turning out last year.

But thereīs also the margin of error in the PPP poll (which is 4.5%), so you can also say that the spread between Dems and GOP could be lower. Who knows ?

Well, lets look your assertions.

First, occasionally there are elections when Democrat turnout is higher than Republican turnout, but, those elections are rare (roughly 1 out of 10).

Second, it is true that PPP polls do have unusually high sample size MoE (due to small samples), but that would NOT explain the partisan sample composition distribution. In the PPP poll you cited, Democrats have an 8 point advantage, whereas in the Edison and Gallup polls (as well as voter registration you cited), they have a 1 point disadvantage. That's a 9 point spread, which is NOT explained by sample size MoE!

Third, you ignored the other point about the PPP poll being heavily laden with liberals, both compared to the Edison and Gallup polls.

Finally, to me it makes no difference the race/ethnicity of voters as a vote is a vote. So, would you be pleased to lose two white votes to gain one "minority" vote?

However, they DO control the state legislature and had a pickup in the House.

It was nice to see you acknowledge that in voter registration there are more Republicans in Colorado than Democrats, which both Gallup and Edison results support, and PPP disagrees with!

Hmm.

I didn't say that Democrats have necessarily a significantly higher turnout rate than Republicans in Colorado, but that at the moment it could be this way because the Colorado GOP sucks and because of more and more minorities registering as Democrats in Colorado.

After all there were 5-6% more Democrats turning out last year.

But thereīs also the margin of error in the PPP poll (which is 4.5%), so you can also say that the spread between Dems and GOP could be lower. Who knows ?

Well, lets look your assertions.

First, occasionally there are elections when Democrat turnout is higher than Republican turnout, but, those elections are rare (roughly 1 out of 10).

Second, it is true that PPP polls do have unusually high sample size MoE (due to small samples), but that would NOT explain the partisan sample composition distribution. In the PPP poll you cited, Democrats have an 8 point advantage, whereas in the Edison and Gallup polls (as well as voter registration you cited), they have a 1 point disadvantage. That's a 9 point spread, which is NOT explained by sample size MoE!

Third, you ignored the other point about the PPP poll being heavily laden with liberals, both compared to the Edison and Gallup polls.

Finally, to me it makes no difference the race/ethnicity of voters as a vote is a vote. So, would you be pleased to lose two white votes to gain one "minority" vote?

Wow those numbers for marijuana usage are quite impressive. Might want to try a redo of that 2006 referendum.

Those prostitution numbers aren't bad either with the word "prostitution" in there, since for too many that makes them think of also things like pimping and whatnot, I bet you could get a majority saying legal if the question was "Do you think the exchanging of money for sexual services should be legal or illegal?"

Wow those numbers for marijuana usage are quite impressive. Might want to try a redo of that 2006 referendum.

Those prostitution numbers aren't bad either with the word "prostitution" in there, since for too many that makes them think of also things like pimping and whatnot, I bet you could get a majority saying legal if the question was "Do you think the exchanging of money for sexual services should be legal or illegal?"

Ya'think?

You know it's gotta be pretty bad for the Colorado GOP if polls have to include a question about prostitution.

However, they DO control the state legislature and had a pickup in the House.

It was nice to see you acknowledge that in voter registration there are more Republicans in Colorado than Democrats, which both Gallup and Edison results support, and PPP disagrees with!

Hmm.

I didn't say that Democrats have necessarily a significantly higher turnout rate than Republicans in Colorado, but that at the moment it could be this way because the Colorado GOP sucks and because of more and more minorities registering as Democrats in Colorado.

After all there were 5-6% more Democrats turning out last year.

But thereīs also the margin of error in the PPP poll (which is 4.5%), so you can also say that the spread between Dems and GOP could be lower. Who knows ?

Well, lets look your assertions.

First, occasionally there are elections when Democrat turnout is higher than Republican turnout, but, those elections are rare (roughly 1 out of 10).

Second, it is true that PPP polls do have unusually high sample size MoE (due to small samples), but that would NOT explain the partisan sample composition distribution. In the PPP poll you cited, Democrats have an 8 point advantage, whereas in the Edison and Gallup polls (as well as voter registration you cited), they have a 1 point disadvantage. That's a 9 point spread, which is NOT explained by sample size MoE!

Third, you ignored the other point about the PPP poll being heavily laden with liberals, both compared to the Edison and Gallup polls.

Finally, to me it makes no difference the race/ethnicity of voters as a vote is a vote. So, would you be pleased to lose two white votes to gain one "minority" vote?

Colorado is trending Democratic according to the exit polls:

2004 exit poll: R+92008 exit poll: R+12010 exit poll: D+5/6

Besides that you don't seem to understand what Iīm trying to say.

First, would you please be so good as to provide the link for your 2010 exit poll?

From what I can see, the Republican U.S. House of Representatioves candidates polled approximately 50% of the vote and the Democrat candidates approximately 45% in 2010 in Colorado.

First, there was only one Green party candidate on the congressional ballot, which minimally helped the Democrats in Colorado.

Second, there was only one Independent had a much smaller percentage of the vote in Colorado than nationwide, which also slighly helped the percentage for the Democrats.

Third, both the Libertarian and Constitutional party congressional candidates did significantly better in Colorado than nationwide. This hurt Republican congressional percentage s in Colorado to some small extent.

So, no, Colorado is not leaning toward the Democrats based on this data.

It must be noted that the Colorado Republican party needs to get its house in order (exterminate the McCainiacs).