Vladimir Putin will be searching for new ways to keep his popularity high.
Photograph: Alexey Druzhinin/AFP/Getty Images

Barring severe illness or the most extraordinary electoral upset of the 21st century, Vladimir Putin will end 2018 in the Kremlin, having won a new six-year mandate in March elections that will take his rule over Russia to 2024.

Even if the result is in little doubt, the manner of Putin’s victory will influence how the year develops. With no real opposition candidates taking part, victory is ensured but the Kremlin is worried about turnout, as political apathy grows, and a low one would ring alarm bells.

The one opposition politician running a real campaign, Alexei Navalny, has been barred from the ballot, and the Kremlin will be doing everything to ensure he does not “mar” the victory with calls to boycott the vote and for nationwide protests.

Navalny has energised a new generation of young supporters, and a decision will have to be taken on how hard to crack down if he does bring people on to the streets.

The last time Putin returned to the Kremlin, in 2012, the build-up was accompanied by mass protests in Moscow and other cities. The response was more aggressively nationalist and conservative rhetoric, aimed at consolidating the majority of Russians against the uppity liberal minority.

After passing through this election cycle, Putin will be searching for new ways to renew his rule over Russia and keep his popularity levels high, and this may well involve ratcheting up the nationalist rhetoric again. There may also be an increased crackdown on corrupt regional officials – not so much because of a real desire to end graft as the need to show that Putin is above the fray and attempting to rein in his subordinates.

So far, despite being in charge for 18 years, Putin has been able to remain the man fighting the system, rather than its benefactor, in the minds of many Russians. As resources become more scarce in a new era of moderate oil prices and western sanctions, infighting among the elite may get messier.

Internationally, much will depend on events in Washington. Both Donald Trump and Putin seem willing to sit down together and possibly do big deals, but the political toxicity of Russia in Washington makes it seem unlikely that Trump will be able to move the relationship any further than mutual backslapping. If Robert Mueller’s investigation into alleged collusion continues to throw up startling revelations, the Kremlin’s standing could diminish further.

In Europe, governments across the continent will continue to be wary of Russian meddling, and there may be a sense that Putin has overplayed his hand, though the Kremlin will continue to act as a lightning rod for those governments and leaders dissatisfied with the west. There is also a chance for Putin to be the linchpin of a deal with Iran and Turkey over the future of Syria, largely bypassing the Americans and providing a huge win for Moscow, with its military intervention in the country having saved the president, Bashar al-Assad.

For a month in the summer, international attention will be on Russia as it hosts the World Cup. Before the 2014 Winter Olympics in Sochi there was a hope inside Russia that success would lead to a new international respect for it as a major world power. This time there is no such expectation on either side.

Nevertheless, putting on the World Cup is a major undertaking, and even if the Russian national team are unlikely to do that well judging on recent performances, successfully managing World Cup logistics and security will be a major boost for Russian prestige, especially in the wake of the extraordinary doping scandal that has taken the shine off Russia’s sporting achievements at the Olympics.