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Forex Market News

Stock markets rolled over last night, showing divergence and with Ukraine/Iraq still in the headlines, VIX climbed a few points as protection and profit taking took place. This also saw a minor bid come into the US$, helped by strong housing and consumer confidence data. Surprisingly the Eurodollar also attracted funds despite poor PMI figures on Monday. Nothing too excited, but where most other pairs gave ground to the greenback the euro went sideways.

Over in Ol’ Blighty, Carney began hedging his bets and talked tough on the economy in an attempt to dampen investors’ enthusiasm that rates would rise in the near future. This put the pound under pressure against most of its peers, us antipodeans being the exception. Carney will be out again tomorrow night and expect to see more of this new line of rhetoric from him.

Otherwise it was a quiet and uneventful session and will continue to be so for rest of week.

DATA HIGHLIGHTS TODAY – US Durable goods.

AUDUSD – 8 of last 9 trading sessions it has tried to hold above 94 and failed. Momentum is wearing off though and whilst fundamentally I do not think it is ready for the rally everyone expects, I will be watching with interest the price action around the low 93¢’s. Fundamentally the gov’t must get its budget through before you can safely expect the Aussie to test 98 or even parity. Resistance: 9460/9522 Support: 9200/9085/8900

EURUSD – Having a pullback against most pairs but against US$ it has closed around 1.36 for last 4 sessions so going nowhere really. Still, prefer to be looking for shorting opportunities as much to do for Draghi and co yet. Resistance: 13890/14050/14260/14320 Support: 13565/13488

GBPUSD – Not enough divergence or R:R in this but it is confirming a pullback as well. The very strong horizontal just too much for it now and Carney talking the place down doesn’t help right now. Resistance: 1.70/1.7035/1.7370 Support: 1.66/1.63

NZDUSD – This has divergence and confirmation seller bar. If you like trading ranges, here is one for you, take this down to 0.8520. Resistance: 8745/8842 Support: 8523/8434/8090

USDCAD – Great action in last several sessions from the Loonie, and was strong enough to outpace the greenback to break the range and support level. Friday’s inflation report which was much stronger than expected by Poloz and co should allow for investors to take the Loonie on board now, something which you all know I have advocated for months now. Against the greenback though, wait for the retest of 1.08 area and then look for shorts. Resistance: 11170/11233 Support: 10802/10715