Looking at the the EU’s history, the Prime Minister’s promises will be very challenging

In this article we look at the key points about Brexit in the Conservative manifesto. In particular we consider the essential question: What happens if Mr Johnson does not negotiate a trade deal with the EU by next Christmas, when the Transition Period is supposed to end?

Brexit Facts4EU.Org Summary

Conservative manifesto on Brexit, 2019

Withdrawal Agreement and Political Declaration parliamentary motion before Christmas

Partial 'exit' date: 31 Jan 2020

End of Transition Period – no extensions - 31 Dec 2020

But what happens if there is no trade deal with the EU by then?

Mr Johnson’s 3 key Brexit promises to the electorate

(The text in bold is exactly how it appears in the manifesto, which you can read here.)

“If we elect a majority of Conservative MPs to Parliament, we will start putting our deal through Parliament before Christmas and we will leave the European Union in January.”

“Our deal… puts the whole country on a path to a new free trade agreement with the EU. This will be a new relationship based on free trade and friendly cooperation, not on the EU’s treaties or EU law. There will be no political alignment with the EU. We will keep the UK out of the single market, out of any form of customs union, and end the role of the European Court of Justice.”

“We will negotiate a trade agreement next year – one that will strengthen our Union – and we will not extend the implementation period beyond December 2020.”

The commitment not to extend the implementation (‘Transition’) period beyond 31 December 2020 is key. Taken with the Conservatives’ other pledges above, it means that Mr Johnson will have just 11 months from 31 January to negotiate a trade deal with the EU.

The EU has never done a free trade agreement in as little as 11 months

Never. Not even close. In fact many of the EU’s trade deals have taken over 11 years.

Tomorrow we will publish a report contrasting the EU's latest trade deal which it announced on Firday, with a trade deal between two 'normal' countries.

So what happens if there’s no EU trade deal by 31 Dec 2020?

If there has been no trade deal agreed with the EU by the end of the Transition Period at the end of next year, the Conservative manifesto offers no guidance. There is no mention of “No deal is better than a bad deal”, as there was in the Conservatives’ 2017 manifesto.

Equally there is no mention of the use of the provisions of the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) which might allow the UK and EU to carry on trading without tariffs whilst a trade deal is being finalised.

The manifesto simply does not address this key question at all.

Assuming the EU is incapable or unwilling to agree a trade deal in record time, and without an agreement on the GATT article XXIV provisions, and if Mr Johnson keeps to his promises, then the UK would exit the EU fully on WTO trading terms on 31 December 2020.

Observations

It is perfectly possible, and in fact quite likely, that Mr Johnson does not wish to declare his hand at this stage. It may be that he knows full well that a free trade deal with the EU is impossible by Christmas 2020.

Interestingly the manifesto refers to negotiating “a trade agreement next year”. A trade agreement is not the same as a free trade agreement. It could be that Mr Johnson and his team are planning to use the GATT XXIV provisions to continue trading with the EU on zeros tariffs after Dec 2020 whilst a proper free trade agreement is thrashed out over several years. This can only be done if both sides agree.

The other alternative is that the trading relationship with the EU will revert to normal WTO terms.

The one path which would be wholly unacceptable is if Mr Johnson goes back on his promise, and does indeed extend the Transition Period beyond Dec 2020, leaving the United Kingdom in the state of being an EU colony with no voice and no veto until the end of 2021 or 2022.

Our consistent position for almost four years has been that the EU would never negotiate a sensible trade deal with the UK, as the main decision-makers in the EU are driven by extremist, superstatist, ideological obsessions rather than by the interests of the ordinary citizens of the EU27 countries.

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Tomorrow we will publish a report contrasting the EU's latest trade deal which it announced on Firday, with a trade deal between two 'normal' countries. Don't miss it!

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Reader Comments 20

1. Concerned , Monday, November 25, 2019, 07:35:

I subsrcribe to TBP view that a manifesto is a pack of lies to be forgotten about after a GE.
Looking back at past GE's and all the promises. Looking at the run up to this one where the Conservatives promises to plant 30 million trees and then quickly after the so-called Liberal Democrats promise to double that to 60 million........ one can see that manifesto is not a political word to be trusted at all.
Consider also that the EU partly funds the BBC. Consider also that I suspect remoanians and the EU work in lockstep and that anyone who has ever worked with the EU has to be seen to be at minimum praising the union..........
I suspect that dark forces are at work to stop Boris delivering. I hope and pray that I am wrong on this.

2. James Bertram , Monday, November 25, 2019, 08:52:

Thank you for this clear summary of the manifesto and very interesting analysis.
I am pleasantly surprised that the manifesto is as detailed on Brexit as it is - I was expecting a lot worse.
Obviously it is a nonsense that we are leaving the EU in January 2020; but the clear statement that we will leave by the end of 2020 is good.
Too, I like the clear statement that 'There will be no political alignment with the EU.' However, it doesn't specifically state that we are aiming for a Canada+ FTA - as Johnson promised, and leading to The Brexit Party standing down in 317 seats - he may push through something far weaker, and give away our fisheries in the process. It is also hard to reconcile that there will be no political alignment if Northern Ireland is going to be left behind with some remaining alignment to the EU (VAT regulations, for example),
Also, the main question for me is why sign this wretched Withdrawal Agreement in the first place? It is the political, legal economic and military ties hidden within that agreement that has caused, and will continue to cause, all the trouble. If you really wanted 'No Political Alignment' you would not sign that treaty in the first place, but just leave, offering a basic FTA, or GATT negotiating terms, on the way out. It is as if we are giving away 39 billion for an end result at the end of 2020 that we could more easily obtain by just walking out of the door now.
And all of the above depends entirely on trust. If Johnson has a large majority, and The Brexit Party and DUP do not have the numbers to hold his feet to the fire, then Johnson breaking his word seems the most likely outcome - and we end signed up to some form of colony status in perpetuity (until we rejoin the EU).

3. Barbara Jell , Monday, November 25, 2019, 08:58:

I stopped believing in Father Christmas a long time ago and the sleigh seems to be dangerously overloaded with an army of EU loving Remainer Elves! You can fool SOME of the people SOME of the time, but hopefully you can't fool ALL of the people ALL of the time!

4. Sydney Ashurst , Monday, November 25, 2019, 08:59:

We will know better on 13th December. What majority, if any the Conservative party has. The key to how much room Johnson has to manoeuvre.
The Withdrawal Act has to go through Parliament first before we can enter the Transition period. This has to be completed before 31st January, otherwise Article 50 default is effective.
I think the Conservatives (Johnson has limited power) have been foolish not to conclude a pact with the Brexit Party.
From now until 13th December the Media will prognosticate with all the Guru's being wheeled out.

5. James Bertram , Monday, November 25, 2019, 09:43:

The Tories need 326 seats for an outright majority.
-
This is Ben Habib today, reported in the Express:
'Kay Burley, SkyNews: "... how .. do you feel that you can put pressure on the Government?
Given the latest polls, which is all we can go on at the moment until December 13, are suggesting that he will have an outright majority?”
Mr Habib replied: “Well if the latest polls are accurate, then we won’t be able to put pressure on him.
“But if we get five to 20 seats it means the polls nationally are not reflecting what’s happening on the ground, and that won’t be the first time that’s happened.
“And if he has a minority Government or he’s very close to a majority but not quite there, then I think we have enormous influence.”
-
regards alternative polling method and results, see this site:https://www.polls.uk/about-ushttps://www.polls.uk/politi...

6. James Bertram , Monday, November 25, 2019, 10:12:

June Mummery today:
1of 2 @Conservatives manifesto gives virtually no detail on the future of fishing other than to say we will ensure we have ‘full control’. No commitment to reclaim the 80% of fish caught in British waters by EU vessels. There is no commitment to recover and enforce our EEZ.
2 of 2: We also have no details on how the Tories will actually support coastal communities. If the promised control is used to open our seas to the EU, it’s useless. This is why we need @brexitparty_uk MPs in Parliament to ensure the @BorisJohnson doesn't sell fishing out.

7. Stephen Redfern , Monday, November 25, 2019, 14:19:

We have to ask why Johnson did not also require his candidates to sign that they would support leaving on WTO if necessary to obtain a fair deal and why Remainers who voted to prevent this before have been allowed to return and stand. Also why Central Office clones have been foisted on local party constituencies over sound local members.
This can only be because the party is still planning a repeat of this year's shenanigans, which will appear to leave the PM doing his best, when trading as the other countries do will be portrayed as a disaster by the Remain plotters and the media.

8. Jon, Wales , Monday, November 25, 2019, 14:45:

Whilst we have PPCs 'fighting' to uphold the democratic and legal decision of the majority UK-wide electorate vote to Leave the EU, in accordance with an Act of Parliament [Referendum Act 2015] to make that decision, it has not gone unnoticed the ever so wise ['and they know better than us' (sic)] politicians, are not talking up TAKING BACK UK fishing waters - which they SHOULD be talking about every day, especially as our country owes the UK fishing industry a huge debt after politicians quietly, and shamefully, gave away control in the 1970s, thereafter decimated by the corrupt EU (Michael Gove take note)?
Think about it, tiny Iceland took back control of its own Internationally recognised waters, and since prospered.
The population of Iceland (LIVE) is around 339,923 ( https://www.worldometers.in... )
The population of UK (LIVE) is around 67,673,761 ( https://www.worldometers.in... )
- almost x200 the population of Iceland.
Would some bright spark UK political leader therefore go on record to explain WHY they believe our country is incapable of managing UK waters in the same way as a country x200 smaller [than the UK] appears able to do without issue?
I have little doubts Mr Johnson and other so-called leaders will sell out our fishing industry, SO THIS IS A DIRECT CHALLENGE TO UK POLITICAL LEADERS TO SAY OTHERWISE?
It has not escaped our vision that MPs/PPCs who ignore "losers consent" are not worthy to hold office when they actively go against a democratic decision they asked us to make, as they want to keep OUR country shackled to the anti-democratic and unaccountable EU bureaucracy FOREVER?
NOTE: By way of "democracy", one only need view local election results in Hong Hong which saw massive gains by pro-democracy candidates, yet our gutless wonders in the UK are happy to give away our country to a foreign power?

9. Concerned , Monday, November 25, 2019, 15:35:

Great comment(8) Jon Wales - I am so bloody annoyed with our political class - they appear to me so weak-kneed and ineffectual and without common sense. On the other hand, maybe they are so because they want to sell the country as they hate it. I cannot for the life of me work out which case it is.