Antony Green is the ABC's election analyst. His expert views on the nation's 150 electorates will be heard throughout the election campaign on ABC radio and television news, current affairs programs and on election night. More »

Election Preview: National

It is only three years since Kevin Rudd led Labor to victory at the 2007 election, but the pace of events in recent months makes it seem further ago in time. Who could have predicted three years ago that the 2010 election would be fought between Labor's second Prime Minister Julia Gillard, and third-turn Liberal Leader Tony Abbott?

Indeed, who would have predicted this turn of events twelve months ago when Kevin Rudd had a commanding opinion poll lead over Malcolm Turnbull? The pace of leadership change in the last three years has been breath taking.

Labor's sweep to victory in 2007 was historic. It came after the Howard government had twice bucked the usual rule of Australian politics for governments to lose support over time. The Coalition's vote and parliamentary majority increased at both the 2001 and 2004 elections, the latter election seeing Labor's support collapse in critical mortgage belt seats. The 2004 result left the Labor Party needing a swing of 5% to achieve government at the 2007 election.

With an increased majority and having achieved a rare Senate majority, the Howard government may have become complacent about the strength of its electoral position. Labor's return to Kim Beazley as leader would have added to that complacency, the Coalition always confident it had Beasley's measure. The lack of pressure from Labor may have played a part in John Howard's decision to stay on and fight another election rather than to bow out of politics at the height of his political reputation.

Labor's decision to change leader in 2006 came as a surprise, but more for the fact that it was Kevin Rudd who emerged as the government's new opponent. More surprise was evident when Rudd took Labor to a commanding lead in opinion polls. The Coalition could at least comfort itself that Labor had similarly opened leads in 2001 and 2004 only to go on to defeat.

Previous elections had seen the polls turnaround after the May budget. That didn't happen in 2007, the bad polls continuing into the second half of the year. In early September, the APEC conference was held in Sydney, the largest gathering of international leaders in Australian history. The conference became a backdrop to Liberal leadership tensions, the Cabinet locked in discussions on whether John Howard should resign, or as the Prime Minister asked his colleagues, would they request that he resign. Nothing was resolved and John Howard was to lead the government to defeat, losing his own seat of Bennelong.

The 2-party preferred swing to Labor was 5.4%, amongst post-war swings beaten only by the 7.4% swing achieved by the Coalition under Malcolm Fraser in 1975, and the 7.1% swing as Gough Whitlam took Labor close to victory in 1969. The Howard government fought to the end, with several of the government's 11-year marginal seat members hanging on in tight contests, delivering Labor a smaller majority than might have been expected.

Peter Costello had been expected to take up the leadership cudgel, but instead announced he would move to the backbench. Dr Brenden Nelson won a narrow victory over Malcolm Turnbull. Nelson lasted less than a year, calling a leadership ballot in September 2008 at which he was defeated by Turnbull. At first polls improved for the Coalition until Turnbull over-played his hand in the Godwin Grech affair, what turned out to be bogus e-mails having caused Turnbull to accuse Kevin Rudd and Treasurer Wayne Swan of corruption.

The Rudd government dominated the opposition in its first twelve months, taking on issues such as national reconcilliation and climate change that the Howard government had stubbornly refused to address. The Rudd government had a more difficult time with the economy, lacking a clear direction on how to deal with an economy showing some sign of overheating, More focus was found in its second year as the government dealt with unstable financial markets and the international downturn brought on by the global financial crisis. The government chose to go into deficit with a range new programs, including the school re-building program and roof insulation scheme that were to be seen as in a less generous light once the spectre of financial collapse had passed.

For Kevin Rudd, the turning point in opinion polls came around October 2009, the month when the government became involved in an extended stand-off with rescued asylum seekers on the Ocean Viking. The debate on the Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme (CPRS) also reached a crescendo at the end of 2009. A compromise was reached with the opposition to pass the legislation, but the Coalition split. The patry's core support was in uproar, and a move that began as an attempt to abandon the CPRS compromise became the leadership ballot at which Turnbull was replaced by Tony Abbott.

The defeat of the CPRS was followed by the failure of the Copenhagen climate change conference. By earlier 2010, Tony Abbott's line that the CPRS was just a 'great big new tax' was biting in the electorate. Rudd's ratings fell further following Cabinet's decision to abandon any attempt to implement the CPRS before 2013. Another great big new tax in the Resources Super Profits Tax fired up the mining industry in opposition to the government. As the Labor Party's vote started to track down in the wake of the Prime Ministers personal approval ratings, factional leaders acted on growing unease in the caucus.

The final sitting day of the Parliament saw Julia Gillard supplant Kevin Rudd as Prime Minister. Now it is the electorate's turn to decide whether the next occupant of the vacant Lodge will be Julia Gillard or Tony Abbott.

Labor's Victory in 2007

The table below sets out the results of the 2007 election. Labor outpolled the Coalition on first preferences votes, and won 52.7% of the 2-party preferred vote, Labor's second best result in the last six decades. Labor won a clear majority with 83 seats, but could have done better were it not for a string of sitting Howard government backbenchers, many of whom had held their seats since the election of the Howard government in 1996.

Changes in Electoral Boundaries

There have been redistributions in four states since the 2007 election. The boundaries in Tasmania and Western Australia have been re-drawn under the seven year rule to bring enrolments back within the required quota. New South Wales and Queensland have undergone redistributions triggered by a change of entitlement to members under Section 24 of the Constitution. For the second election in succession, New South Wales loses a seat while for the sixth time in seven elections, Queensland gains a seat. The total number of seats in the House of Representatives remains at 150.

The Tasmanian redistribution has merely shaved the margins in several seats. In Western Australia, Kalgoorlie has been abolished and major changes made to O'Connor to allow for the creation of the new seat of Durack. Changes to the boundaries of inner-city Swan turn the 0.1% Liberal margin by which MP Steve Irons won the seat at the 2007 election into a notional Labor majority of 0.3%.

The New South Wales redistribution has effectively resulted in the abolition of the inner city Labor electorate of Lowe and its amalgamation with the neighbouring seat of Reid. This has created knock-on changes to many other NSW electorate. The outer Sydney Liberal seats of Greenway and Macarthur are drawn into the metropolitan area and become notional Labor seats, as does the South Coast seat of Gilmore. The Labor seat of Macquarie, Liberal held Hughes, and National held Calare, all become more marginal on the new boundaries. In addition, the outer Sydney seat of Prospect has been re-named McMahon in honour of former Australian Prime Minister Sir William McMahon.

Another change to party holdings since the 2007 election was brought about by the retirement of former National Party Leader Mark Vaile from his north coast seat of Lyne. At a by-election in September 2008, the seat was won by Independent Rob Oakeshott.

In Queensland, the new seat of Wright has been created in the state's south east corner with a notional LNP majority. Again there are knock-on consequences across the state, with the Liberal seats of Dickson and Herbert becoming notional Labor seats on new boundaries.

The following table summarises the redistribution. While on paper Labor has an extra five seats, there is no change in the uniform swing required to defeat the government..

Where the Election will be decided

On paper the redistribution may have given Labor an extra five seats, but three of these seats will be defended by sitting Liberal MPs, Swan, Gilmore, and Dickson. Labor is also without sitting members to defend Bass, Macquarie and Robertson, though losing Belinda Neal as candidate in Robertson may help Labor's cause. This means that of the 12 seats that Labor needs to win to be returned as a majority government, only four have sitting Labor MPs. (Solomon, Corangamite, Hasluck, Bennelong.) Whatever the state of the seats post-redistribution, the uniform swing for Labor to lose remains unchanged.

The election is likely to be decided in New South Wales and Queensland. The number of marginal seats in the other states is small compared to the seats perched on the electoral precipice north of the Murray.

As usual, the contest in Tasmania will be about the northern marginal seats of Bass (ALP 1.0%) and Braddon (ALP 2.3%). Despite the funding needs of specialist units at Royal Hobart Hospital, there is more political milage in offering Federal funds to hospitals in Tasmania's north. The same with road funding, where improving the roads between Launceston and the north-west always gets more attention from Canberra than upgrading the highway between Hobart and Launceston.

Something similar occurs in the Northern Territory. The outback seat of Lingiari (ALP 11.2%) is where Indigenous poverty is at its worst, but the relatively affluent and more marginal seat of Solomon (ALP 0.2%) is where the political action will be. There is more political milage in improving services for Darwin and Palmerston than there is in fixing Indigenous health and housing.

As ever South Australia will be decided by the usual suspects. Labor will try to increase its vote to win Sturt (LIB 0.9%) and Boothby (LIB 2.9%) while the Liberal Party will try to regain Kingston (ALP 4.4%), Hindmarsh (ALP 5.1%), Wakefield (ALP 6.6%) and Makin (ALP 7.7%). With the Resources Super Profits Tax off the political agenda, there doesn't seem to be a major issue that will break through the trench lines of South Australian politics..

In Western Australia there are only four Labor members in the state's 15 member delegation to the House of Represenatives. At the height of the Resources Super Profits Tax, there was talk of Labor losing Brand (ALP 6.0%) and Perth (ALP 7.9%), but this talk has subsided since Prime Minister Gillard engineered a compromise. Labor has a fight on its hands to retain Hasluck (ALP 0.9%), and while Swan (ALP 0.3%) is now a notional Labor seat, it is widely expected that sitting Liberal MP Steve Irons will be re-elected.

Victoria was critical to the result of elections in the 1980s and 1990s, but the political fault lines seem to have stablised. There are only five seats realistically in play for the 2010 election. Labor will again try to win McEwen (LIB 0.02%) where sitting MP Fran Bailey is retiring, and La Trobe (LIB 0.5%). The Liberal Party will try to win back two traditional Liberal seats lost in 2007, Corangamite (ALP 0.9%) and Deakin (ALP 1.4%). A seat to watch for different reasons is inner-city Melbourne (ALP 4.7% v GRN) where Finance Minister Lindsay Tanner is retiring and the Greens will again push to win the seat.

The redistribution complicates the picture in New South Wales. Labor will be trying to win Hughes (LIB 0.5%) and Paterson (LIB 0.6%) and hang on to two seats that notionally have been gained in the redistribution, Gilmore (ALP 0.4%) and Macarthur (ALP 0.5%). Outside Sydney the key Labor seats are the north coast seat of Page (ALP 2.4%) and perennial south-east bellwether Eden-Monaro (ALP 2.3%). In the fringe of greater Sydney, Robertson (ALP 0.1%) and Macquarie (ALP 0.3%) are both without sitting Labor MPs, while inner-city Bennelong (ALP 1.4%) is the seat where Labor's Maxine McKew ousted John Howard in 2007.

Queensland could be the key seat. Led by a Queenslander in 2007, Labor recorded a majority of the 2-party preferred vote for only the third time since the Second World War. Taking account of the redistribution, Labor holds 17 of the 30 seats but could lose 10 seats with a swing of 4.6%. One change on the Queensland political scene is the new Liberal National Party, or LNP as it prefers to be known. This merged entity has its first Federal outing in 2010 and should overcome past Coalition disunity in Queensland, though the new party has run into several problems in choosing candidates.

The redistribution means that Labor's two most marginal seats are currently Liberal held, Townsville based Herbert (ALP 0.3%) and outer Brisbane Dickson (ALP 0.8%). In particlular, Labor would love to win Dickson as it is held by Liberal Health Spokesman Peter Dutton. Labor would also have its eye on two Liberals seats, Bowman (LIB 0.01%) with its tiny margin, and the western Brisbane seat of Ryan (LIB 1.2%) where the LNP and sitting MP Michael Johnston have had a bitter parting of the ways.

Labor's major problem could be in regional Queensland, where Flynn (ALP 2.2%), Dawson (ALP 2.6%) and Leichhardt (ALP 4.1%) were all gained by Labor in 2007 after massive swings. In the south-east, Longman (ALP 1.9%), Forde (ALP 3.4%), Petrie (ALP 4.2%), Bonner (ALP 4.5%) and Brisbane (ALP 4.6%) will all need vigorous campaigns to be retained.

The 2010 election is the first since 1987 to be held with no states on summer time. In 1993 and 2004, Tasmania was ahead of the eastern states and the arrival of Tasmanian results from 5pm eastern time set the tone for the rest of the evening. At other elections we had results from New South Wales and Victoria an hour before the Queensland. In 2010, polling will close in 122 of the 150 electorates at 6pm eastern time. If the result is clear, we should know the victor early in the evening.