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November 05, 2012

NFL Odds, Week 8: Around the League

This picking
winners ATS circus needed a turnaround, that of which the New Orleans Saints
are looking to embark upon, so why wouldn’t I include them last week as one of
three sure things? They’re all sure things before a ball’s been
kicked/thrown/run and last week I couldn’t possibly lose. Hell, Aaron Rodgers
and Drew Brees had my back as did...the Buffalo Bills.

Chris Johnson
racked up too many yards to fit on to this line at a laughable 10.8 yards per
carry and down the swanny went my three timer. Buffalo really was a gimme -3,
but who knows when Johnson will actually feel like running for more than 1.6
YPC on any given...Sunday, isn’t it?

Having gone a
stupid 1-6 in my previous seven picks, a 2-1 record last week feels like
relative nirvana so all apologies to anybody feeling the heat from their
wallet; handicapping can drain you.

What awaits in
Week 8, apart from the chance for the Seahawks to bury the memory of last
week’s loss in San Fran on the Ford Field turf we love to hate.

If it ain’t
broke, don’t fix it. My 11-9 record ATS before last week was on legs shakier
than a shaken Bambi so I reverted to going on a hunch. Ain’t it ridiculous?
Apart from Pink Floyd ever playing together again, we have everything we ever
need at our fingertips and yet gut feel gets me over the line in Week 7. Same
again this week.

I’m not upset
at being 13-10 (I’m not too proud of it either) and if Bill Belichick were to
look at it, you’d get “it is what it is”. Yes, Bill, it is. For that, I may
just tip up your lot, playing as you are in my home town this week. Wembley
welcomes Welker. I have a hunch he may feature.

The acronym ‘BAL’
below each team denotes Best Available Line, for those new to this.

MIAMI DOLPHINS at NEW YORK JETS

BAL Dolphins +2.5...BAL
Jets -1

One of those
odd occasions when both teams can cover the spread as long as the Jets win by
two. Which could easily happen.

This will be
played against a backdrop of ill feeling emanating from the fall out of their
matchup in Miami in Week 3. Reggie Bush is a marked man, even though the green
half of New Jersey would never admit it.

Jets safety
LaRon Landry has put the bullseye right between the 2’s on Bush’s jersey and
this really is one to watch. I won’t be, obviously, as events in Detroit at the
same time are far more hypnotic. Both of these are adept at covering with the
Jets perhaps a surprising 5-2 (Dolphins 4-2) and it isn’t one I’d advise on
laying down your hard earned for.

In the grand
scheme of the AFC, this game is probably inconsequential, but I can’t get
enough of this rivalry. It’s rich in history, but don’t bank on getting rich
betting on it.

SAN DIEGO CHARGERS at CLEVELAND BROWNS

BAL Chargers -1...BAL
Browns +3

Are we really
expected to be able to trust San Diego, even -1? Of course! They’re playing a
1-6 Cleveland team. This is like buying money. Except it isn’t.

What I’m about
to type could make me look like Lord of the Idiots (George Costanza, I borrow
your lines from time to time), but don’t be fooled by the Browns’ record SU.
They’re 3-3-1 ATS and 2-1 ATS at home. That makes them dangerous to bet against
this week and do you want to back the team that blew a 24 point half time lead
last time out? You do? You go for it.

San Diego does
have a bunch more to play for than Cleveland and you would hope they’d feel
stung by the turnaround suffered at the hands of the Broncos, but this is a
Norv Turner coached team so the odds on them being fired up on the road after a
bye week are pretty remote.

Take the
Browns for a small wager.

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS at TENNESSEE TITANS

BAL Colts
+3.5...BAL Titans -3.5

For those who
read this regularly (and I really must thank you both once again), you’ll know
I now hate picking Indianapolis and with Tennessee on something of an upward
curve, it’s difficult not to like the Titans to cover.

The Colts have
developed a consistent record ATS this season, which reads LWLWLW. Naturally,
they’re going to fail to cover this week, right? At least we hope so, what with
Matt lining up under center in Nashville.

As SU form
goes, Indy last won on the road on December 26, 2010 and if the same Chris
Johnson bothers to show up as the same Chris Johnson of last week then he’ll dance
all day on a Colts run defense that ranks 26th in the NFL and the
Titans will definitely win. It’s tempting to say Tennessee will cover easily
here, but I’m wary and I don’t like wary.

Much like with
Cleveland, a small bet on the home team.

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS ‘at’ ST. LOUIS RAMS (Wembley
Stadium, London)

BAL Patriots -6.5...BAL
Rams +7

Forget that
St. Louis is the home team here. They may have been in London since the start
of the week and designated the home team, but they’ll feel like the road team
come kickoff; Patriots fans will outnumber Rams fans by at least two to one.

The same thing
happened last year when Chicago was the road team against Tampa Bay. The Bears
are very popular in the UK and the fan ratio was something more like 5:1 come
kickoff. You could almost feel they weren’t going to lose and they never came
close to doing so.

Yes, the away
home team may have lost to the Seahawks and squeaked past the Jets at home over
the past two weeks, but I fancy them strongly here. The home away team should
keep this one close though and are an impressive 5-2 ATS this season, which
does make me lean their way, but I was at Wembley in 2009 when Tom Brady looked
sublime against the Buccaneers (a very poor Buccaneers team though) and can see
him lighting up the stadium again this week.

It should help
New England that they’ve been here before and I do wonder what St. Louis makes
of it all. From a Seahawks standpoint, I hope they simply don’t get it, but I
think they’ll cover the spread.

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS at GREEN BAY PACKERS

BAL Jaguars
+16...BAL Packers -15.5

Green Bay -21,
anybody? Nobody would be offended. That said, I can’t back a Packers team
giving up this many points as they can be expected to take their foot off the
gas in the fourth quarter and I’m not about to be stung by a garbage time score
and the accompanying back door cover.

Maurice
Jones-Drew doesn’t play for Jacksonville, the man who accounts for almost a
third of the Jaguars’ offensive output. That said, I can’t back a Packers team
giving up...you get the picture.

ATLANTA FALCONS at PHILADELPHIA EAGLES

BAL Falcons
+3...BAL Eagles -1

This line
looks huge. In favour of Atlanta. At first glance.

At second
glance? This line looks huge. In favour of Atlanta.

We have Mr.
Regular Season on our side, form that Matt Ryan’s taking in his stride this
season, at least if you look at the black and white of a 6-0 record. Two of
those wins could easily have been, and probably should have been, home losses
to the Panthers and Raiders, two pretty terrible teams, if we’re honest. It’s
staggering to think that the Falcons could have played down to such a level,
but it could simply be a case of them believing their own hype. They still sit
atop many of the Power Rankings lists, but it won’t last.

The crux of
their home form could simply be that they’re happier as a road team. They’ve won
their three home games by a combined 11 points. On the road, that number jumps
out to 47 and includes victories in San Diego and Washington.

Philadelphia.
Where to start with Philadelphia? A team seemingly endlessly beset by internal
strife, they’ve dropped two (close ones) straight and are 1-2 ATS at home.
Something else to consider this week is Michael Vick. Will he try just a little
too hard against his former team? When he tries a little too hard normally he
rarely emerges with the winning ticket. Yes, he may just be inspired this week,
but I’ll still take the Falcons and the three points in my back pocket.

WASHINGTON REDSKINS at PITTSBURGH STEELERS

BAL Redskins +5...BAL
Steelers -4.5

Why do I love
Washington +5? They’ve covered the spread in three of their last four, but it’s
tough to ask a team led by a rookie quarterback (even one as dynamic as Robert
Griffin III) to go to Pittsburgh having lost a heart breaker to a division
rival (Giants) a week earlier on the road. However, despite them being a tad
erratic this season, they are 3-1 ATS as the underdog.

The Steelers
are gradually nursing themselves back to health (Troy Polamalu aside) and
before stifling the Bengals last Sunday night were 1-4 ATS, but lest we forget
that this is Pittsburgh with Ben Roethliberger at quarterback and they are of
course more than capable of winning this by ten.

I like the
‘Skins as an underdog though and stick to my opening rhetoric.

CAROLINA PANTHERS at CHICAGO BEARS

BAL Panthers
+9...BAL Bears -7.5

In a perfect snapshot
of how these two teams’ respective seasons have gone, Carolina enters this one
on the back of the firing of GM Marty Hurney and Warren Moon citing racism as
the reason for any criticism of quarterback Cam Newton.

Chicago have had
to deal with the shattering news that receiver Brandon Marshall was fined this
week for wearing orange cleats against Detroit on Monday Night Football.
Serious stuff.

Yes, here we
are, back with my Super Bowl XLVII pick and of course I’m happy at this week’s
matchup. However, it’s not such a sure thing ATS. As much of a shambles as the
Panthers have (surprisingly?) been this season (and ATS...2-4), the only other
time they’ve been an underdog on this scale was when they were afforded eight
points in Atlanta, a game they really should have won SU, but the Falcons are
better on the road anyway, as we know.

Then there’s
the not insignificant fact of the Bears possibly looking past this one and a
schedule presenting far greater challenges than the clawless bunch coming to
town this week. After this comes an improving Titans (a), Houston (h), San
Francisco (a), Minnesota (h), Seattle (h), Minnesota (a), Green Bay (h).

The Panthers
could just be quite the good thing here.

OAKLAND RAIDERS at KANSAS CITY CHIEFS

BAL Raiders +1.5...BAL
Chiefs -1

The erratic
Raiders at the even more erratic Chiefs with both teams sharing 2- 4 records
ATS. This is probably the most dangerous game to bet on this week. I’ll leave
you to it as I don’t have an opinion on this one and don’t want to have an
opinion on this one.

NEW YORK GIANTS at DALLAS COWBOYS

BAL Giants -1...BAL
Cowboys +2.5

This is the
time of the season when must win games absolutely exist, a far cry from the
euphoria felt in Dallas when they assertively stole the W from the defending
Super Bowl champions in their own back yard on opening night.

Should the
Cowboys not repeat their Week 1 feat here, they’ll be two-and-a-half games
behind the Giants and temporarily out of the wild card race behind Green Bay
and Minnesota and quite possibly Arizona and Seattle...and that doesn’t even
include the possible threat still posed by New Orleans. That’s a dark horizon
indeed yet all is not that bad...hang on, it is if you want to bet on Dallas
ATS.

Every bad run
in sports comes to an end against some embarrassed team, but the Cowboys are
0-5 ATS in their last five home games and the Big Blue are 4-1-1 ATS since
their Week 1 wake up call, an alarm that clearly had the desired effect.

The Giants
could easily return to the Super Bowl while Dallas has played well since their
bye week and should really have won in Baltimore two weeks ago, going down
31-29 despite being the better team on the day. The latter point is a part of following
sports teams I know only too well and I’ll always embrace the pleasure-pain
principle.

That can only
mean I take the rollercoaster Cowboys to beat the Giants for the first time in
four attempts in their new stadium, including the 2.5 points on offer.

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS at DENVER BRONCOS

BAL Saints +6...BAL
Broncos -5.5

I can’t wait
for this one, no matter that it starts at 1:20 a.m. GMT. I ain’t missing it and
the un-Godly hour only adds to the sense of occasion.

This one is
for enjoyment purposes only so I’ll be accompanied by the finest bottle of
Malbec I can lay my hands on and the very handy six points available on the
Saints. Yes, they may well lose to the Broncos, but they’ve won three on the
bounce ATS and I like my chances with my hard earned on them this week.

Just for
further enjoyment, buy on the over/under of 55.

SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS at ARIZONA CARDINALS

BAL 49ers -6.5...BAL
Cardinals +7

This just
looks like a good line on Arizona. Yes, I’ll give you that they’re on the slide
somewhat and may struggle to develop any semblance of a running game, but in what
could be a physical divisional matchup on Monday Night Football, I like the
Cardinals receiving a touchdown start.

OK, to recap,
my ‘Aaron Curry’ is Carolina +9, my bet of the week is Atlanta + 3 while I also
like St. Louis +7 and New Orleans + 6.

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