The Argentinian government is sustaining efforts to open up and normalize the economy, but it is shifting to a more gradual approach given social and political constraints. Important successes have already been booked on the external front.

Low commodity prices have been weighing on economic growth and the public finances, but the external position is expected to remain relatively strong. The latter is due to a flexible exchange rate regime and adequate monetary policy.

Egypt’s economic growth will slow in 2016, as tourism is hurt by last year’s terrorist attacks. The industrial sector is helped by an EGP devaluation and the resulting greater access to FX. The lack of structural reforms will continue to weigh on growth.

Ongoing low oil prices and social unrest have slowed economic growth, severely affected public finances, and weakened external balances. Solid austerity measures are necessary, but require sufficient public support to avoid more social unrest.

Lower oil prices put increased pressure on the Saudi economy. Growth is slowing down and the fiscal situation is under pressure. Implementation of the diversification plan (vision 2030) would be a positive factor, but will be difficult to achieve.

Although the UAE’s economy is more diversified and less dependent on the oil sector than the surrounding Gulf States, low oil prices will continue to negatively affect economic and fiscal metrics. Despite the expected twin deficit in 2016 and 2017, we won’t expect any problems in meeting financing requirements due to UAE’s considerable sovereign wealth fund.

Jordan’s social and economic dynamics are severely affected by the Syrian crisis, while the government is making progress in consolidating the budget and reducing reliance on a limited number of energy sources.

Croatia’s short term outlook has improved on the back of higher private consumption, investment and exports. Unfortunately, chances of successful structural and fiscal reforms by the new government are dim, due to its small and likely unstable majority.

Portugal continued to grow in 2015, after exiting the EU/IMF bailout programme in 2014, which signals a substantial increase of economic and financial stability. However, reform momentum is weak while the country still has many vulnerabilities.

Economic activity is recovering after several years of near-zero growth. But the French economy still faces many structural challenges, including a relatively weak competitive position, high unemployment and weak public finances.

Economic growth in 2015 has been robust thanks to the usage of EU-funds and strong external demand. The fiscal situation improved, although with controversial measures. In general, the government maintained its populist and nationalist policies.