Comments on Data Lining Up For The Fed’s Rate Hike ForecastTypePad2018-01-08T18:32:11ZMark Thomahttp://economistsview.typepad.com/economistsview/tag:typepad.com,2003:http://economistsview.typepad.com/economistsview/2018/01/data-lining-up-for-the-feds-rate-hike-forecast/comments/atom.xml/llisa2u2 commented on 'Data Lining Up For The Fed’s Rate Hike Forecast'tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e201bb09e7276d970d2018-01-09T23:36:05Z2018-01-10T02:26:16Zllisa2u2It's not just the GOP, it's your friendly school board members, and your neighbor down the street. Anybody making over...<p>It&#39;s not just the GOP, it&#39;s your friendly school board members, and your neighbor down the street. Anybody making over 100,000 is effectively working hard to make sure nobody gets to get beyond that point. Case in point is this little video link, I just have to contribute to the latest &quot;shot heard around the world&quot;. </p>
<p> <a href="http://bit.ly/2FhQz95" rel="nofollow">http://bit.ly/2FhQz95</a></p>
<p> That video says it all.....</p>llisa2u2 commented on 'Data Lining Up For The Fed’s Rate Hike Forecast'tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e201b7c943d799970b2018-01-09T23:31:31Z2018-01-10T02:26:16Zllisa2u2Check out Jill Mislinski's charts. It's not just "no real wage growth". Check the bottom two quintiles for2016. "Lackluster" is...<p>Check out Jill Mislinski&#39;s charts. It&#39;s not just &quot;no real wage growth&quot;. Check the bottom two quintiles for2016. &quot;Lackluster&quot; is a bit of an understatement to say the least. </p>
<p> <a href="http://bit.ly/2FhQz95" rel="nofollow">http://bit.ly/2FhQz95</a><br />
</p>llisa2u2 commented on 'Data Lining Up For The Fed’s Rate Hike Forecast'tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e201b8d2ce32ee970c2018-01-09T23:25:09Z2018-01-10T02:26:16Zllisa2u2It is so tragic that the situation is only laughable. Rome is already burning again!<p>It is so tragic that the situation is only laughable. Rome is already burning again!</p>llisa2u2 commented on 'Data Lining Up For The Fed’s Rate Hike Forecast'tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e201bb09e726b4970d2018-01-09T23:22:13Z2018-01-10T02:26:16Zllisa2u2This link from the HILL is better- no advertising etc..... http://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/news/368075-teacher-removed-from-school-board-meeting-handcuffed-after That one little video sums up exactly what is...<p>This link from the HILL is better- no advertising etc..... <a href="http://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/news/368075-teacher-removed-from-school-board-meeting-handcuffed-after" rel="nofollow">http://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/news/368075-teacher-removed-from-school-board-meeting-handcuffed-after</a></p>
<p>That one little video sums up exactly what is happening in the US, especially the economy. No one on the school board, nor the law enforcement officer &quot;think&quot; they are doing any action that is bad, or wrong. </p>llisa2u2 commented on 'Data Lining Up For The Fed’s Rate Hike Forecast'tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e201b8d2ce28e5970c2018-01-09T20:52:47Z2018-01-09T21:10:05Zllisa2u2Reality check... civil discourse and response to; employment disparity. https://www.buzzfeed.com/tasneemnashrulla/teacher-arrested-for-questioning-pay-raise?utm_term=.anpKqpe8y#.ogD0YqaR7<p>Reality check... civil discourse and response to; employment disparity.<br />
<a href="https://www.buzzfeed.com/tasneemnashrulla/teacher-arrested-for-questioning-pay-raise?utm_term=.anpKqpe8y#.ogD0YqaR7" rel="nofollow">https://www.buzzfeed.com/tasneemnashrulla/teacher-arrested-for-questioning-pay-raise?utm_term=.anpKqpe8y#.ogD0YqaR7</a><br />
</p>JohnH commented on 'Data Lining Up For The Fed’s Rate Hike Forecast'tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e201b7c943bd28970b2018-01-09T17:06:37Z2018-01-09T17:21:41ZJohnHMeanwhile, commodity prices are rising, which may finally give liberal economists the inflation that they have so desperately been begging...<p>Meanwhile, commodity prices are rising, which may finally give liberal economists the inflation that they have so desperately been begging for...all without real wage increases.<br />
<a href="http://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2017/10/26/commodity-prices-likely-to-rise-further-in-2018-world-bank" rel="nofollow">http://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2017/10/26/commodity-prices-likely-to-rise-further-in-2018-world-bank</a></p>JohnH commented on 'Data Lining Up For The Fed’s Rate Hike Forecast'tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e201b7c943bcfa970b2018-01-09T17:03:30Z2018-01-09T17:21:41ZJohnHYep, an asymmetry that mostly benefits capital.<p>Yep, an asymmetry that mostly benefits capital.</p>RC AKA Darryl, Ron commented on 'Data Lining Up For The Fed’s Rate Hike Forecast'tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e201b7c943b509970b2018-01-09T15:26:35Z2018-01-09T17:21:41ZRC AKA Darryl, Ron"...the GOP is now is terribly disorganized..." [Gee, my syntax is now terribly disorganized too and my mouse is horribly...<p>&quot;...the GOP is now is terribly disorganized...&quot;</p>
<p>[Gee, my syntax is now terribly disorganized too and my mouse is horribly ignorant.]<br />
</p>RC AKA Darryl, Ron commented on 'Data Lining Up For The Fed’s Rate Hike Forecast'tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e201bb09e705b8970d2018-01-09T15:25:32Z2018-01-09T17:21:41ZRC AKA Darryl, Ron"...the GOP is now is terribly disorganized..." [Gee, my syntax is now terribly disorganized too.]<p>&quot;...the GOP is now is terribly disorganized...&quot;</p>
<p>[Gee, my syntax is now terribly disorganized too.]</p>RC AKA Darryl, Ron commented on 'Data Lining Up For The Fed’s Rate Hike Forecast'tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e201bb09e70592970d2018-01-09T15:22:56Z2018-01-09T17:21:41ZRC AKA Darryl, Ron"...The GOP is fighting hard to prevent more money being paid to workers. No money paid to build productive capital...<p>&quot;...The GOP is fighting hard to prevent more money being paid to workers. No money paid to build productive capital assets, like transportation projects that would both require paying US workers, while opening up access to land where new housing can built, destroying wealth by driving down prices on old housing with inflated asset prices.&quot;</p>
<p>*</p>
<p>[Although otherwise true, new land development creates far more wealth than it destroys. Fortunately however for the Democratic Party, the GOP is now is terribly disorganized and horribly ignorant. It still remains to be seen though whether or not that the Democratic Party can capitalize on their great fortune this November.]</p>RC AKA Darryl, Ron commented on 'Data Lining Up For The Fed’s Rate Hike Forecast'tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e201bb09e6ff7b970d2018-01-09T13:52:38Z2018-01-09T17:21:40ZRC AKA Darryl, RonFor low short term benchmark interest rates (notably the FFR which immediately commutes +300BP to the prime rate) to bring...<p>For low short term benchmark interest rates (notably the FFR which immediately commutes +300BP to the prime rate) to bring about higher wages requires a lot of other things to happen which, as we know, only can happen over an extended period of time given our constraints within the highly wage-competitive global economy. OTOH, high short term benchmark interest rates can bring about higher unemployment far more swiftly. </p>JohnH commented on 'Data Lining Up For The Fed’s Rate Hike Forecast'tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e201b7c9439683970b2018-01-09T02:58:03Z2018-01-09T05:46:44ZJohnHI wonder if pgl is finally willing to acknowledge that the whole premise of low rates bringing about higher wages...<p>I wonder if pgl is finally willing to acknowledge that the whole premise of low rates bringing about higher wages is a flawed one. Kind of like hoping that an 85% efficient DC/DC converter will turn into a 90% efficient one if left plugged in long enough.</p>
<p>Meanwhile all that excess heat has gone to warm the cockles of the one percent while the rest shiver in the cold...</p>mulp commented on 'Data Lining Up For The Fed’s Rate Hike Forecast'tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e201bb09e6dfcb970d2018-01-09T01:07:35Z2018-01-09T05:46:43Zmulphttp://."The labour market will weaken as equities climb." Demand for workers will be cut. Or at least demand for paid...<p>&quot;The labour market will weaken as equities climb.&quot;</p>
<p>Demand for workers will be cut. Or at least demand for paid workers will fall. Slave labor demand will probably increase.</p>
<p>Maga. Repeal the 13th amendment.</p>mulp commented on 'Data Lining Up For The Fed’s Rate Hike Forecast'tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e201b8d2cdeae4970c2018-01-09T01:03:26Z2018-01-09T05:46:43Zmulphttp://."Keep in mind demographics are pushing the full employment EPOP down both now and in the medium term." You mean...<p>&quot;Keep in mind demographics are pushing the full employment EPOP down both now and in the medium term.&quot;</p>
<p>You mean young people have figured out how to get by without much income, thus being able to avoid near slavery, while old people are unable to work as slaves because they can&#39;t pay for drugs to enable physical labor, and employers refuse to allow them in there workplace working too slowly, and possibly dying on the job??</p>
<p>Wages in real terms are lower than in the 50s and 60s for the same demographics and jobs. Better health benefits and higher wages plus better transportation made the cost reward for working be positive from age 15 to 70.</p>
<p>Today, it&#39;s negative. The &quot;market&quot; is signalling &quot;do not be a worker.&quot; Do not believe the job opening postings.</p>mulp commented on 'Data Lining Up For The Fed’s Rate Hike Forecast'tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e201b8d2cdea17970c2018-01-09T00:46:03Z2018-01-09T05:46:43Zmulphttp://.Public policy, thanks to the GOP and right wing is to slash labor supply by cutting offered prices below the...<p>Public policy, thanks to the GOP and right wing is to slash labor supply by cutting offered prices below the breakeven point of being a worker.</p>
<p>If you want less of something, lower your offered price.</p>
<p>Want fewer workers, slash the offered wage for long enough and the invisible hand will shift labor supply curses so the quantity supplied falls to match the GOP target for quantity demanded in their free lunch economic vision that supply curve is set by the demand curve.</p>
<p>The sound of one hand waving.</p>mulp commented on 'Data Lining Up For The Fed’s Rate Hike Forecast'tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e201b7c9438f24970b2018-01-09T00:38:03Z2018-01-09T00:39:59Zmulphttp://.Tax cuts on money not paid to workers signals the GOP public policy of cutting or holding down worker pay....<p>Tax cuts on money not paid to workers signals the GOP public policy of cutting or holding down worker pay.</p>
<p>GOP deregulation is intended to cut costs by cutting worker pay preventing pollution and other harms to workers and consumers.</p>
<p>Expect monetary velocity to keep falling as more money exits the US to prevent it paying US workers and boosting US GDP.</p>
<p>The headwinds for higher worker pay can hardly be higher.</p>
<p>The GOP is fighting hard to prevent more money being paid to workers. No money paid to build productive capital assets, like transportation projects that would both require paying US workers, while opening up access to land where new housing can built, destroying wealth by driving down prices on old housing with inflated asset prices.</p>pgl commented on 'Data Lining Up For The Fed’s Rate Hike Forecast'tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e201bb09e6dbf8970d2018-01-09T00:04:12Z2018-01-09T00:39:59ZpglSure by a couple of points at best. It used to be 64% back 12 years ago when Brad DeLong...<p>Sure by a couple of points at best. It used to be 64% back 12 years ago when Brad DeLong credited me with the natural rate of EPOP. So we are now saying with your demographics effect that it is 62%. 60.1% is far below 62%. </p>
<p>And yes the 25-54 EPOP is a very useful metric that conveys the same message. </p>Teapot commented on 'Data Lining Up For The Fed’s Rate Hike Forecast'tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e201b7c943827e970b2018-01-08T20:58:12Z2018-01-08T22:07:08ZTeapotKeep in mind demographics are pushing the full employment EPOP down both now and in the medium term. A flat...<p>Keep in mind demographics are pushing the full employment EPOP down both now and in the medium term. A flat EPOP is still closing some gap. I agree it could rise more, which you can see in Tim&#39;s graph of the working age EPOP.</p>Gibbon1 commented on 'Data Lining Up For The Fed’s Rate Hike Forecast'tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e201b7c9438161970b2018-01-08T20:44:12Z2018-01-08T22:07:08ZGibbon1It's nice that you keep focused on employment to population ratio. I can see a similarity with employment to population...<p>It&#39;s nice that you keep focused on employment to population ratio.</p>
<p>I can see a similarity with employment to population ratio to efficiency in switching power supplies. Namely how the way you express your measurement can make important details obviousness.</p>
<p>To get to the point, you would think there isn&#39;t much different between a 85% efficient DC/DC converter. And a 90% efficient DC/DC converter. Right. Except that the 85% efficient one generates 50% more waste HEAT. HEAT you need to get rid of somehow. Old crusty electrical engineer taught me that.</p>
<p>Employment to population ratio. If I&#39;m a wanna be worker bee. I don&#39;t care how what percentage people are employed as much as the number of other wannabe worker bees there are. Number of unemployed/not working.</p>
<p>We&#39;re back to (1-y)/x as the important ratio not y/x</p>The Brave New Bubble commented on 'Data Lining Up For The Fed’s Rate Hike Forecast'tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e201bb09e6ce86970d2018-01-08T20:29:12Z2018-01-08T22:07:08ZThe Brave New BubbleThe labour market will weaken as equities climb. Nihil Novum !<p>The labour market will weaken as equities climb. </p>
<p>Nihil <br />
Novum<br />
!<br />
</p>pgl commented on 'Data Lining Up For The Fed’s Rate Hike Forecast'tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e201bb09e6cdda970d2018-01-08T20:17:20Z2018-01-08T22:07:08Zpgl"Last Friday the Bureau of Labor Statistics released a fairly lackluster employment report. In most ways, the story remains the...<p>&quot;Last Friday the Bureau of Labor Statistics released a fairly lackluster employment report. In most ways, the story remains the same – steady improvement in the labor market but no signs of overheating in the form of wage growth.&quot;</p>
<p>Tim rightfully calls the employment report lackluster. But how much improvement in the labor market have we really had. The employment to population ratio finally inched up to 60.4% a few months ago but is now back to only 60.1%. This is not a strong labor market which is why we see no real wage growth. It is not the right time to raise interest rates. </p>