Interactive: Hurricane Tracker

Before the beginning of this hurricane season, back in May, forecasters thought this year would be an average one. Come August, when the season typically peaks, forecasters notched up their outlook, saying the season would in fact be busier than average.

Now it's October and it's been one of the busiest seasons on record, with 19 named storms so far this year, 10 of which became hurricanes, including Hurricane Sandy, which has the potential to strike the East Coast.

That puts the 2012 Atlantic hurricane season in rarified company. Only seven seasons since 1851 (as far back as hurricane records reach) have seen 19 or more named storms. Three of these have been within the last decade: the 2010 and 2011 seasons had 19 storms each and the 2005 season had a whopping 28 storms, the most on record, including Hurricane Katrina.

Originally the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predicted there would be nine to 15 named storms this year. Then, in August, it upped its prediction to 12 to 17 named storms, with five to eight of those becoming hurricanes. (Storms are named once they attain tropical storm status — defined as a rotating, organized storm with maximum sustained winds of at least 39 mph. A tropical storm becomes a hurricane once its top winds hit at least 74 mph.

It's relatively unusual to have more storms than forecast, said Gerry Bell, the lead hurricane season forecaster at NOAA's Climate Prediction Center. So why has this hurricane season been busier than expected?

The underestimate can be blamed on El Nino, Bell told OurAmazingPlanet. Or rather, the lack of El Nino. Forecasters predicted that this climate pattern, characterized by warm surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean, would have developed by now and stymied hurricane formation by its influence on the atmosphere. But it hasn't.

Bell said the hurricane forecast represents how many storms there are likely to be, within a 70 percent probability. In recent years their forecasts have been 95 percent accurate, he said.

This year, cyclone activity has continued longer than expected in the Atlantic, unperturbed by El Nino, which spawns high-level winds that stream eastward and can disrupt the swirling motion that gives a developing storm its power, Bell said.

"There was a strong indication that El Nino would form in time to suppress the peak of the hurricane season and El Nino just hasn't formed yet," he said.

Other climate factors also played a part in this year's season, as well as some of the other recent busy seasons.

The main reason for the recent abundance of cyclones is that since 1995, the Atlantic Ocean basin has been in the warm phase of a cyclical climate pattern called the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, with hotter-than-average surface temperatures throughout the tropics and subtropics, Bell said.

There's also been relatively weak wind shear in the tropical Atlantic where cyclones form. Wind shear is a difference in wind speed or direction between the low and high atmosphere, which tears apart developing storms. Wind shear is the main way El Niño hampers cyclone formation.

One thing that likely isn't to blame for the increase in hurricanes in recent years is global warming, Bell said. Many climate models suggest that increased temperatures could actually lead to fewer, but stronger, hurricanes worldwide, he said.

Overall it's been a very unusual hurricane season, said Phil Klotzbach, a hurricane expert at Colorado State University. While there have been 10 hurricanes, they've lasted only a total of 23 days. An average hurricane season has six hurricanes, but also about 25 hurricane days. "All that's to say, we've had a lot of short-lived hurricanes so far," he said in an email. [50 Amazing Hurricane Facts]

Better technology also allows us to detect more hurricanes than in the past, Klotzbach said. In the past few decades satellites have significantly increased the detection of tropical storms that last less than 36 hours. This year there have been three tropical storms that lasted less than 1.5 days: tropical storms Helene, Joyce and Patty. These storms might have been missed in the pre-satellite era, and indeed, some storms actually could have been, meaning more seasons may have been as busy as this one has been.

But regardless of what the hurricane season forecast is, people who live near the Atlantic or the Gulf of Mexico need to be prepared for storms, Bell said. "It only takes one big storm to hit land to cause a lot of damage."

Video: Carolinas, East Coast on watch for Hurricane Sandy

>>al's in
florida
just south of
west palm beach
this morning. al, good morning to you.

>>well, good morning to you, guys. so far sandy has been a deadly storm, first hitting cuba. at least 21 people dead there. we've also had reports of at least one person killed in jamaica as that system moved through, roaring through there as a category two storm. now it is hitting the
bahamas
, central
bahamas
, where there are
hurricane warnings
up. this is the latest on sandy. let's give you the statistics. right now sandy is still a
category 1
storm. it's currently 210 miles east of miami,
florida
, 80-mile-per-hour winds. it's moving northwest at 13. right now
hurricane warnings
are up for all of the
bahamas
, a good portion of the
bahamas
, the central
bahamas
at least. we're looking at
tropical storm warnings
from ocean reach,
florida
, all the way up to
flagler beach
.
tropical storm watch
is north of there, and as we make our way into the southeast from the
savannah river
to the
oregon inlet
, along the carolinas, we now have
tropical storm
watches. here's what we look for as far as sandy's path. we're expecting, this is from the
national hurricane center
. it makes its
way across
the
bahamas
today and kind of parallels the
florida
coast. by friday afternoon. then it makes a bit of a right turn saturday. we have two models we look at, the gfs which is the
american model
and the european model. that's put out by the european hurricane organization, and by monday morning the european model is much closer to the shore and comes in on land somewhere just south of the
delmarva peninsula
, while the
american model
comes in closer up to new
york
. and that's going to make a big difference. if it comes in closer to new
york
, that means the new
york
and the
metropolitan area
is going to be in the worst quadrant of the storm, massive flooding,
storm surge
, he have rain and strong winds. if we say with the european model, it's more about the mid-atlantic states and heavy snow back through the appalachians. we'll know better
later today
when both models have the latest run and in the meantime everybody from the carolinas to new england have to watch for this very dangerous storm. it could be an unprecedented one. matt?

>>we want people to stay tuned today and all throughout the weekend. al, thank you

Hundreds of people affected by Sandy wait in line for distributions from the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), Red Cross and other aid organizations on Nov. 17 in the Coney Island section of Brooklyn. FEMA says it is extending, by a month, a program providing temporary housing to New Yorkers displaced by Superstorm Sandy.
(Bebeto Matthews / AP)
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A volunteer checks Donald Vaughn, who had not been able to keep a dialysis appointment, in his apartment at a public housing facility in the Rockaway section of the Queens borough of New York on Nov. 17. Some residents have struggled to get their lives back to normal more than two weeks after Hurricane Sandy since some essential services have yet to return to parts of the city.
(Eric Thayer / Reuters)
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Contractors dig several feet of sand out of a garage after it was deposited by the storm surge from Sandy in Mantoloking, N.J. on Nov. 16.
(Lucas Jackson / Reuters)
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Destroyed rides sit on the beach from the Funtown Pier on Nov. 16 in Seaside Heights, N.J. Two amusement piers and a number of roller coasters were destroyed in the seaside town by Sandy.
(Mario Tama / Getty Images)
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A surfer heads out into the water in the heavily damaged Rockaway neighborhood where a large section of the iconic boardwalk was washed away on Nov. 16, in the Queens borough of New York City.
(Spencer Platt / Getty Images)
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President Barack Obama and New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo, left, talk with a man inside the distribution tent as they tour a FEMA recovery center in the aftermath of Superstorm Sandy on Staten Island in New York on Nov. 15, 2012. Sen. Chuck Schumer, D-NY, is at right. Obama got a look Thursday at the devastation that Sandy waged on New York City, flying over flood-ravaged Queens before landing in Staten Island to meet storm victims who lost homes and loved ones.
(Mandel Ngan / AFP - Getty Images)
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Rosemary McDermott and her husband Anthony Minor react as they open a safe containing a family genealogy they were able to salvage from the basement of her mother's home in the Breezy Point section of Queens, N.Y., on Nov. 15, 2012. A fire destroyed more than 100 homes in the oceanfront community during Superstorm Sandy. At left are Todd Griffin and Kevin Striegle, volunteers with Adventures in Missions, who helped find the safe beneath the debris.
(Mark Lennihan / AP)
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People receive free clothing at the Ocean Bay Action Center on Nov. 15, 2012, in the Rockaway neighborhood of Queens in New York City. More than two weeks after Superstorm Sandy, residents are still lining up for free clothing and food as emergency workers continue to restore power, water and heat to the battered community.
(John Moore / Getty Images)
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Patrick Wall, house manager at Coney Island USA, cleans a vintage player piano damaged in the flooding of the buildings that house the Coney Island Circus Sideshow and the Coney Island Museum on Nov. 15, 2012, in Brooklyn, New York City. Staff and volunteers are working to restore what can be saved following Superstorm Sandy.
(Mario Tama / Getty Images)
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A worker looks up at a hole in the foundation caused by Hurricane Sandy to the home of Leslie Mahoney in the Brooklyn borough of Belle Harbor, N.Y., Nov. 14.
(Lucas Jackson / Reuters)
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Lisa Baney walks back toward her family's home after taking a photo of a neighbor's destroyed home on Nov. 14, in Bay Head, N.J. Many residents of the hard hit seaside town remain without power.
(Mario Tama / Getty Images)
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A living room is filled with sand washed in by Superstorm Sandy on Nov. 14, in Point Pleasant Beach, N.J.
(Mario Tama / Getty Images)
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A man looks up at a building along the destroyed section of boardwalk on Nov. 14, in Point Pleasant, N.J.
(Mario Tama / Getty Images)
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Workers pause to look at a home that has been pushed on top of a work truck by the storm surge of Hurricane Sandy in the Brooklyn borough of Belle Harbor N.Y., Nov. 14.
(Lucas Jackson / Reuters)
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A candle is handed out to residents in need from a group called Dream Center in the heavily damaged Rockaway neighborhood in Queens, N.Y. on Nov.14. Two weeks after Superstorm Sandy slammed into parts of New York and New Jersey, thousands are still without power and heat.
(Spencer Platt / Getty Images)
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An New York police officer jumps over a chasm in the boardwalk caused by the storm surge of Hurricane Sandy in Belle Harbor, N.Y., Nov. 14.
(Lucas Jackson / Reuters)
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Louise McCarthy carts belongings from her flood-damaged home as she passes the charred ruins of other homes in the Breezy Point section of the Queens borough of New York, Nov. 14. A fire destroyed more than 100 homes in the oceanfront community during Superstorm Sandy.
(Mark Lennihan / AP)
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Heavy equipment operator Bill Unger carries photos he salvaged from a mass dump of household possessions on Nov. 13, in the Midland Beach area of the Staten Island, N.Y. Unger has been helping to remove Hurricane Sandy debris for the city and collecting photos along the way. He takes them to his daughter, who is posting them on Facebook for neighborhood residents to find online and later collect.
(John Moore / Getty Images)
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A woman steps down off a damaged section of boardwalk in the Rockaway neighborhood of New York City, Nov. 13.
(Mario Tama / Getty Images)
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CVS workers stock the shelves of a temporary store being constructed in front of a damaged CVS location in the Rockaway Beach neighborhood of Queens, New York, Nov. 12. Most stores in the area have been damaged or destroyed.
(Andrew Gombert / EPA)
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An insurance claims adjuster climbs the entrance to a house in the Breezy Point neighborhood on Nov. 12, which was left devastated by Superstorm Sandy in New York City's Queens borough.
(Adrees Latif / Reuters)
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Chris Schmidt works on ripping out damaged wood in a friend's home, as a fire burns in the fireplace, on Nov. 12. People in the area continue to deal with the aftermath of Superstorm Sandy in the Oakwood Beach neighborhood of Staten Island, N.Y.
(Justin Lane / EPA)
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Members of the U.S. Army's 62nd Medical Brigade Preventive Medicine Detachment take water samples during early morning fog in Breezy Point, on Nov. 12. The neighborhood was left devastated by Superstorm Sandy in New York City's Queens borough.
(Adrees Latif / Reuters)
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People line up to receive donated items from Catholic Charities of Brooklyn and Queens in the Visitation of the Blessed Virgin Mary Catholic Church, in Brooklyn's Red Hook neighborhood, on Nov. 12.
(Mario Tama / Getty Images)
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People gather for free donated food beneath a spotlight in an area without power on Nov. 12, in the Rockaway neighborhood in New York City's Queens borough.
(Mario Tama / Getty Images)
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A young girl rejoices as she finds a doll, while she and her mother search through piles of clothes and other items donated for victims of Superstorm Sandy, on a sidewalk on the south side of Staten Island, on Nov. 12.
(Mike Segar / Reuters)
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Seabee EOCN Courtney McCormack, left, grabbed a shovel and started digging out the sand that had washed up against the house as others in the group grabbed the waterlogged debris to begin a 100 yard walk out of the neighborhood to a large trash pile in Breezy Point, N.Y. on Nov. 12.
(John Makely / NBC News)
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A cyclist passes piles of debris on Nov. 10, as clean-up continues where a large section of the iconic boardwalk was washed away in the heavily damaged Rockaway neighborhood of the Queens borough of New York City.
(Spencer Platt / Getty Images)
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Community pet rescuer Kim Ruiz stands among the cats, five of whom were rescued during Superstorm Sandy, and dogs she houses in her unheated apartment without electricity in the Far Rockaway neighborhood in the Queens borough of New York City on Nov. 9.
(Mario Tama / Getty Images)
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Mac Baker heats pots of water on the floor with small flames for a bit of warmth in her unheated apartment on Nov. 9, with her niece Nytaisha Baker in the Ocean Bay public housing projects in the Far Rockaway neighborhood of the Queens borough of New York City.
(Mario Tama / Getty Images)
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David Sylvester searches through the remains of his house, which was flooded and then burned to the ground during Hurricane Sandy, for the corpses of his five cats in the Midland Beach neighborhood in Staten Island, N.Y., on Nov. 9.
(Andrew Burton / Reuters)
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Dean Rasinya takes a break from cleaning his damaged home on Nov. 8 in the Breezy Point neighborhood of Queens in New York City. Rasinya's house still stands, just at the edge of the fire's reach, near the area where there was a huge blaze that destroyed over 100 homes in the aftermath of Superstorm Sandy. Rasinya has lived in the neighborhood for 35 years and intends to rebuild.
(Mario Tama / Getty Images)
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U.S. Marines from the 8th Engineer Support Battallon out of Camp Lejeune, N.C., attempt to start a generator which they will use to pump out floodwater from an overnight storm on Nov. 8 in the Breezy Point neighborhood of Queens, N.Y. The Breezy Point neighborhood was heavily damaged by Superstorm Sandy.
(Mario Tama / Getty Images)
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David Sylvester, 50, stands in front of the remains of his house in the Midland Beach neighborhood on Staten Island in New York City on Nov. 8. Sylvester and his wife Joanne lost their five cats when their home caught fire after Hurricane Sandy flooded their neighborhood.
(John Makely / NBC News)
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Theresa Goddard, her apartment still without electricity, is overwhelmed while discussing her living conditions on Nov. 8 in the Red Hook neighborhood of Brooklyn in New York City. Even as a storm plunged temperatures below freezing, she and many other residents of the Red Hook public housing projects remain without heat and running water.
(John Moore / Getty Images)
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A damaged house sits in the middle of the street as the area continues to deal with the aftermath of Hurricane Sandy in Breezy Point, Queens, N.Y. on Nov. 8.
(Justin Lane / EPA)
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Snow covers debris from the cleanup after Sandy in the Rockaway neighborhood of Queens, N.Y., on Nov. 8. Residents across the Northeast woke up on Nov. 8 to more than 200,000 new power outages and record early snow from a nor'easter that struck just 10 days after Superstorm Sandy battered the region.
(Lucas Jackson / Reuters)
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Ed Cardona shovels a few inches of snow from his driveway, just two hundred yards from the water, on Staten Island in New York City on Nov. 8. Cardona, who has lived here since 1989, had about three feet of water after Superstorm Sandy. "I still love the place, I'm not going anywhere. I picked up a new snowblower within the last seven months that went under water. I didn't get to use it at all, but that's OK. The family's safe, that's what's important," said Cardona.
(John Makely / NBC News)
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People wait in line to buy gasoline during a snowstorm on Nov. 7 in the Brooklyn borough of New York City. The city is still experiencing long gas lines in the wake of Superstorm Sandy.
(Mario Tama / Getty Images)
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A man helps another person climb down from a destroyed section of boardwalk after they checked the storm's approach in the Rockaway neighborhood of Queens, N.Y., on Nov. 7. The Rockaway Peninsula was especially hard hit by Superstorm Sandy and some evacuated ahead of the nor'easter.
(Mario Tama / Getty Images)
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Volunteers walk through falling snow while bringing food to residents of homes damaged by Superstorm Sandy on Nov. 7 in the Staten Island borough of New York City.
(John Moore / Getty Images)
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Snow falls as Eddie Saman clears out destroyed household belongings from his flood-damaged home on Nov. 7 in the Staten Island borough of New York City. He and fellow residents of the low-lying New Dorp area of Staten Island had been advised to evacuate ahead of the arrival of a storm that could potentially reflood areas devastated by Superstorm Sandy.
(John Moore / Getty Images)
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U.S. Postal Service mail carrier Kenneth Henn delivers mail to a residence along Ocean Ave. at 15th Street in the evacuated section of Belmar, N.J., on Nov. 7. Machines pile sand along Ocean Ave. in the background.
(John Makely / NBC News)
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Linemen install a transformer on Nov. 7 to help restore power in the Staten Island community of Oakwood Beach in New York City. The linemen were from Chain Electric, a contract utility crew that drove in from Mississippi to help out.
(Paul J. Richards / AFP - Getty Images)
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Members of the National Guard walk past a house damaged by Sandy as it is painted with an American flag in the New Dorp section of Staten Island, N.Y. on Nov. 6. Voting in the U.S. presidential election is the latest challenge for the hundreds of thousands of people in the New York-New Jersey area still affected by superstorm Sandy.
(Seth Wenig / AP)
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Poll workers Eva Prenga, right, Roxanne Blancero, center, and Carole Sevchuk try to start an optical scanner voting machine in the cold and dark at a polling station in a tent in the Midland Beach section of Staten Island, N.Y., on Nov. 6. The original polling site, a school, was damaged by superstorm Sandy.
(Seth Wenig / AP)
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Nikolas Policastro, 20, gives a kiss to one of his five puppies while Paige Shaw of the American Red Cross pets their mother "Bella" at a shelter in the Pinelands Regional Junior High School in Little Egg Harbor, N.J. on Nov. 6. Policastro, his four brothers and his parents sought refuge at the shelter after their home in Mystic Islands was swamped with over five feet of water from Sandy. The shelter was one of the few places that the family could house their extended family of five cats, five dogs and five thee-week-old puppies.
(John Makely / NBC News)
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A woman and her son scramble over a tree toppled by superstorm Sandy as she accompanies him to Public School 195, in the background, in the Manhattan Beach neighborhood of Brooklyn, on Nov. 5 in New York. Nov. 5 was the first day of public school for New York City students following the storm.
(Mark Lennihan / AP)
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MTA employees observe a pump removing seawater from the L train's tunnel, in the aftermath of superstorm Sandy in New York City on Nov. 5. The MTA says the G and L trains are now the top priority to reopen. The signal system on the G still needs repairs, and the L tunnel under the East River is still being pumped out.
(MTA via AP)
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People wait at a crowded subway stop as New York City tries to recover from the after effects of Hurricane Sandy in Brooklyn, N.Y. on Nov. 5. Portions of the city's transit system are still not operating due to flooding and damage from last week's hurricane causing severe crowding in areas.
(Justin Lane / EPA)
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People salvage food from bags thrown out of a flooded store in the Coney Island area of Brooklyn, N.Y., on Nov. 4. Victims of Sandy on the East Coast struggled against the cold early on Sunday amid fuel shortages and power outages, even as officials fretted about getting voters displaced by the storm to polling stations for Tuesday's presidential election.
(Lucas Jackson / Reuters)
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Soldiers from the National Guard help to unload supplies to set up a donation distribution center for victims of Sandy, at St. Camillus School in the Rockaways area of Queens, N.Y., on Nov. 4.
(Lucas Jackson / Reuters)
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Rockaway residents stay warm by a fire during near-freezing temperatures on Nov. 4 in the Rockaway area of Queens, N.Y.
(Allison Joyce / Getty Images)
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Members of the Coney Island Cathedral of Deliverance worship in a neighboring community center on Nov. 4 in New York City, after their church and beach community were heavily damaged by Sandy.
(Mark Lennihan / AP)
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New York City Marathon runners help clear debris from homes in a damaged neighborhood in the Staten Island borough of New York on Nov. 4. More than 1,000 people, many of whom had originally planned to run the marathon, crowded onto two Staten Island Ferry boats and headed to the stricken borough with relief supplies ranging from food to plastic bags.
(Adrees Latif / Reuters)
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Vincent Gearity removes water-damaged insulation in a crawl space below a home as the area continues to clean up after Hurricane Sandy in Toms River, N.J., Nov. 4.
(Steve Nesius / Reuters)
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A man takes a photograph of a home destroyed by Hurricane Sandy in Point Pleasant Beach, N.J., on Nov. 4.
(Les Stone / American Red Cross via Reuters)
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A man walks near standing water and piles of sand swept onto a road from Superstorm Sandy at Rockaway Beach on Nov. 3, in the Queens borough of New York City.
(Mario Tama / Getty Images)
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A man stands outside his house which was left flooded by hurricane Sandy in the Staten Island borough of New York, Nov. 3.
(Adrees Latif / Reuters)
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Volunteer Christina Wilson, left, helps clean up the kitchen of the Ventura family home, which was flooded during Superstorm Sandy, Nov. 3, in Staten Island, N.Y. A Superstorm Sandy relief fund is being created just for residents of the hard-hit New York City borough. Former Mayor Rudolph Giuliani and Borough President James Molinaro say the fund will help residents displaced from their homes.
(Julio Cortez / AP)
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Howard Goldsmith consoles his wife, Rosanna Troia, while helping clean out Troia's mother's home in the Midland Beach neighborhood of Staten Island on Nov. 3. As clean-up efforts from Superstorm Sandy continue, colder weather and another storm predicted for next week are beginning to make some worried.
(Andrew Burton / Getty Images)
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A member of the National Guard fills up a gas tank at the Armory on Nov. 3, in the Staten Island borough of New York City. New Jersey has begun rationing gas and the Department of Defense will be setting up mobile gas stations in New York City and Long Island.
(Andrew Burton / Getty Images)
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People clean the boardwalk of sand washed in by Superstorm Sandy in low-lying historic Coney Island on Nov. 3, in the Brooklyn borough of New York City.
(Mario Tama / Getty Images)
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Roxanne Boothe uses a flashlight as she walks through a hallway in Sam Burt Houses, where she is president of the tenants' association, on Nov. 3 in Coney Island, N.Y. The complex, which has been without power since Oct. 29, flooded during superstorm Sandy and a 90-year-old woman who had lived there for more than 40 years drowned on the first floor. "We have no heat, no water, no electricity, it’s dark in the whole building," said Boothe, who was frustrated that the Red Cross and FEMA assistance has not reached her neighborhood.
(Bebeto Matthews / AP)
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Jeff Kulikowski, left, sits on a bench on the boardwalk that was pushed off of its pilings by storm surge as the city tries to recover from the after effects of Hurricane Sandy in the Rockaways neighborhood of Queens, N.Y., Nov. 3. Large areas of the city are still without power or functioning stores to buy food and water.
(Justin Lane / EPA)
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Editor's note:
This image contains graphic content that some viewers may find disturbing.