I'd say you have it backwards - he has 75% chance to make it to the big leagues.
Now to be an effective big league regular is likely in the 25% category.
Still, Hawikins is the far more valuable prospect.

I think saying ANYONE has a 25% chance to be an effective MLB player is a huge compliment since, as has been noted, even 1st round picks have a near 90% rate of failure.

I'm not counting this homerun or his 3 RBI from today's game because of the game situation. I'm not counting his pinch hit solo homerun in a blowout win in Colorado. In my book, Crede has 2 less home runs than his statistics show, 4 less RBI, and one less walk (the one where he pinch hit for Uribe after coming in with a 3-0 count and taking one pitch).

Profile suggests a Lillibridge type, which isn't a bad thing. Guys that can play multiple positions with a bit of pop are a valuable asset.

I liked this pick. If he is a guy who can hit at least .260 or so at the Major League level and provide a back-up at several positions, including the hot corner, he'll have more than a cup of coffee in the pros. I hope he can be more than that from the Sox, but even if he isn't, he has the chance to help us out.

Our early round pitchers: 6'3", 6'4", and 6'8"...we're definitely increasing the average height of our rookie ball rotations with these guys.

Anyone catch the semi-loophole that teams are exploiting? Teams like the Jays are drafting a bunch of college seniors with no leverage and agreeing to way under slot pre-draft deals in say rounds 6 through 10. They then will select some of the high upside hard prep signs in rounds 11 and onward to use their savings towards. With picks past the 10th round an inability to sign your pick does not penalize you by reducing the team's allotment if an agreement is not reached.

I know nothing of the draft, but what from everyone is posting, with the exception of the stretch taken with the second pick we've had a very good draft so far.

__________________It breaks your heart. It is designed to break your heart. The game begins in the spring, when everything else begins again, and it blossoms in the summer, filling the afternoons and evenings, and then as soon as the chill rains come, it stops and leaves you to face the fall alone. - A. Bartlett Giamatti

Looks like most of the college arms we are taking (Hanson, Barraza, Isler, Jaffe) profile as relievers in the bigs. No surprise...the White Sox MO is to get some power arms with control or secondary issues.

I'd say you have it backwards - he has 75% chance to make it to the big leagues.
Now to be an effective big league regular is likely in the 25% category.
Still, Hawikins is the far more valuable prospect.

Sorry, I worded my initial post poorly. I meant 25% of being an everyday solid player in the big leagues, not just making it. Im in full agreement with you here.

Anyone catch the semi-loophole that teams are exploiting? Teams like the Jays are drafting a bunch of college seniors with no leverage and agreeing to way under slot pre-draft deals in say rounds 6 through 10. They then will select some of the high upside hard prep signs in rounds 11 and onward to use their savings towards. With picks past the 10th round an inability to sign your pick does not penalize you by reducing the team's allotment if an agreement is not reached.

Yeah but you also can't really offer them any real money past the 10th round, either, right?

I would assume the savings they're trying to get from rounds 6-10 are aimed more at their earlier picks.

Yeah but you also can't really offer them any real money past the 10th round, either, right?

I would assume the savings they're trying to get from rounds 6-10 are aimed more at their earlier picks.

I believe in the specific case of the Jays they were saving money to try and buy Smoral out of his NC commitment.

OTOH, some teams did save money to entice draft picks in rounds 11+. Each team is allowed to spend up to $100K on each draft pick after round 10, without penalty. So, if they saved $300K on the first 10 rounds they could then offer $400K to an 11th round pick without any tax or loss of draft picks and if the kid still turned it down the money wouldn't be pulled from their pool. Now if they would have made the same offer in the 9th round the cost would've been to reduce their entire pool by $400K or if he didn't sign then the slot amount for that pick would've been deducted from their allotted amount.

Anyone catch the semi-loophole that teams are exploiting? Teams like the Jays are drafting a bunch of college seniors with no leverage and agreeing to way under slot pre-draft deals in say rounds 6 through 10. They then will select some of the high upside hard prep signs in rounds 11 and onward to use their savings towards. With picks past the 10th round an inability to sign your pick does not penalize you by reducing the team's allotment if an agreement is not reached.

True, except if the signing after round 10 exceeds $100,000 it counts against the allotment.