I’ve been a Peyton Manning fan since he starred at Tennessee, primarily because I enjoyed watching Tennessee football even when Johnny Majors was coaching them. Even in the late 80s and early 90s, the SEC was on TV nationwide and I was able to watch Carl Pickens catch everything thrown to him and return kicks and punts for TDs. I loved watching the athleticism of guys like Dale Carter and despite the bust that Heath Shuler became in the NFL he was an amazing college QB. I was bewitched by Neyland Stadium’s size, by its cool checkerboard endzone, and by their orange unis. I even love the song, Rocky Top. When Peyton Manning came onto the scene I was already hooked on Tennessee football. Now if Tennessee were to ever play Washington, I’d clearly root for Washington, but college football has many flavors, and I was sampling southern cooking. To this day, I have an affinity for the program, but that has dissipated as of late, and now I’m just a fan of Washington football specifically, and SEC football generally because of the immense talent, balance, and competitiveness in that league.

Carl Pickens 93-yard kick return 1989 (his freshman year)

Incidentally, when I was looking for this video I came across this picture of Pickens. What the hell happened!? It looks like he was hanging with my man Owen from Men of a Certain Age (it’s a good show, really) sneak-snacking Fiddle Faddle in the middle of the night.

So, I’ve rooted for Peyton for years and for as great as he was I saw him fail constantly against Florida and then saw him lose the Heisman to Charles Woodson. He just seemed like one of those guys who was great, but could never get over the hump (e.g. Dan Marino). I was amazed that he won the Super Bowl against Chicago, but I was happy for the guy at the same time. And now that he doesn’t have to deal with that “loser” moniker (amazing, considering he was the No. 1 overall pick in the draft, is a multi-millionaire and, has accomplished so much on the field) anymore, he’s entering this game somewhat pressure free. He has his own and his team’s own internal pressures–they obviously want to win, but the external pressure isn’t there. The pressure that a guy feels when he hasn’t “won the big one” isn’t there. He performed well when the pressure was on three years ago, and I’d be amazed if he didn’t perform exactly as he has in these playoffs to date.

New Orleans Forces Turnovers
Minnesota dominated every aspect of the NFC Championship Game. They rolled up yardage on New Orleans and they stopped New Orleans’s vaunted offense. But they turned the ball over five times in crucial situations and that’s why they lost. As I explained before, the two Favre interceptions and the one botched exchange between Favre and Peterson were gifts, New Orleans didn’t necessarily force those turnovers. Yes, they were in position to make those plays, but those turnovers were direct results of Minnesota messing up rather than New Orleans causing anything to happen. The other two turnovers were directly caused by New Orleans and that’s been their game all year long. So, if Indy consistently moves the ball up-and-down the field, will that really matter if New Orleans can cause them to cough up the ball?

New Orleans Is a Big-Play Team
While they didn’t show it against Minnesota, New Orleans can score points. The offense that torched Arizona is the offense that we expect to see out of New Orleans. Drew Brees is a maestro when things are clicking. Everytime he drops back you expect to see any number of Saints’ receivers running under his passes. They have dynamic, versatile running backs with Pierre Thomas and Reggie Bush; both can run the ball effectively and both are excellent receivers. They are also explosive in the kicking game and don’t sleep on Darren Sharper possibly returning an interception. Further, if New Orleans gets behind, they are a team that can close the gap in a hurry. Unlike Baltimore or New York, they have the ability to score and score quickly so they’re never really out of a game even if they’re down 17 points in the second half.

New Orleans’s Defense Is Tough
I heard someone say (and I can’t remember who, sorry) “Peyton Manning would rather face New Orleans’s defense rather than Minnesota’s defense.” I suppose that would make sense because Minnesota’s defense was incredible all year and was certainly great against New Orleans, but how does that comment make any sense whatsoever when we just saw New Orleans give Brett Farve the stepchild treatment? They physically pounded him all game long. Also, we saw Bobby McCrae detonate Kurt Warner the previous week. Why would Manning want that? Sure, Minny did the same thing to Tony Romo in the second round, but to say that it’s preferable to face one physical team over another is lunacy. Let’s just say that Manning is happy to be in the game and leave it at that.

I’m sure that New Orleans wants to beat on Manning much like they did to Favre, but there is a big difference between those two QBs. Both are incredible players, but both are very different players. Favre forces things, Manning doesn’t (not as much, anyway, but no one does… although Jay Cutler is getting close). Favre takes more sacks than Manning (a combination of holding the ball too long–trying to make a play; and not throwing the ball out of bounds soon enough–again, trying to make a play). Because Manning gets the ball out quickly, I wonder if New Orleans is thinking about pushing the envelope a little. Will they hit him a little too late after he releases the ball? Even if they get flagged for roughing the passer, isn’t it worth it to knock him around and make him think that pressure is going to be there all day long? If they do employ this, I’d recommend that they do it on a first down just so they get a hit on him and also don’t give away momentum by allowing them to convert a second or third down via penalty.

They Don’t Allow TD Passes
New Orleans has given up only 15 touchdowns through the air this year, but Peyton Manning threw 15 touchdowns in his first six games. Hmmm.

They Played Well Against Teams with a Good Defense Against the Pass
Indy gives up 212 yards per game through the air (No. 14 in the NFL). New Orleans played eight games against teams that had a better pass defense than Indy (New York Jets, Buffalo, Carolina twice, Washington, Tampa Bay twice, and New England) and won every game except one (against Tampa Bay at home in week 16).

Dwight Freeney Is Injured
While Raheem Brock is no slouch, he’s not the dominant force that Freeney is, just from a speed perspective. But honestly, I don’t feel like New Orleans should change their gameplan much based on Freeney’s absence, they’ll get burned for sure. Can’t you just see Brees getting earholed by either Matthis or Brock because they didn’t keep a back in to protect? I’d just play it straight and reap the rewards of not having to deal with a guy that might be able to beat a double team as easily as Freeney and keep Brees off of the ground.

Manning’s Studiousness
Since Manning has such a reputation as a workhorse in the film room and on the practice field, New Orleans might have an advantage if they throw out some coverages or blitzes that they haven’t shown all year (or in any other Gregg Williams defense). Ed Reed and Domonique Foxworth did this to Manning in the second round baiting him into some bad throws. New Orleans can take advantage of this as well. They can show Manning a defense that he would recognize from his film study, but they can change whatever it is that they have done in the past to confuse him. That’s one way that Manning’s extensive study could work against him and in New Orleans’s favor. It’s a stretch, but it’s certainly worth a shot.

Also, how do you think the rest of the QBs in the league feel when they hear media types and announcers marvel at Manning’s preparation? Don’t they all prepare? Don’t they all study? Don’t they all “work hard”? I’m not talking about the bad QBs in the league (e.g. Jamarcus Russell and Rex Grossman types); I’m talking about the good ones (Manning’s opponent, Brees; Tom Brady; Phil Rivers etc). Maybe he does put in superhuman hours, but to focus solely on his preparedness minimizes the work that the other guys do. Just another one of my ongoing beefs with announcers I guess; not really Manning’s fault.

The Case for Indianapolis

Manning
He’s the best in the game currently and is currently interviewing for best of all time. Let’s just say he’s made it through the screening interviews and is not on a callback. The guy is awesome; the overexposure that he’s gotten over the past few years is annoying and while part of it is his fault (the commercials), he’s earned it (his play on the field). Speaking of advertising, quick tangent here: Darren Rovell (in SI) said, referring to Tim Tebow, “He is the most marketable guy we’ve ever seen coming out of college.” Don’t you think this is odd considering Tebow’s murky NFL future? He’s not a surefire star by any stretch and it would be weird for any company to hitch their wagon (filled with money) to a guy who may or may not be a starter in the NFL, much less a star. Also, since he has such a strong stance on faith and religion, won’t that turn companies away as well? I thought they liked their guys to be blank slate, pre-tomcatting Tiger Woods types. I don’t really care about this at all. If companies want to pay him money, what possible impact would that have on me?

Back to Manning, the guy is simply dialed in. He’s made unknown receivers (Austin Collie and Pierre Garcon) into worldbeaters and he’s made great receivers better (Reggie Wayne and Marvin “Marlo Stanfield” Harrison). While Indy has poor rushing numbers throughout the year, they still control the ball a pretty decent amount of time because Manning completes such a high percentage of passes and also runs the playclock all the way down on almost every snap. He also has such a good idea of what opposing defenses are throwing at him it’s nearly impossible to make him do something that he doesn’t want to do (the flip-the-script issue under “Manning’s Studiousness” notwithstanding).

They Don’t Fumble
Indy fumbled the ball less than anyone in the NFL this year and was tied for No. 1 (with Tampa Bay… weird) for the team that lost the least amount of fumbles this year. Would it surprise you that Minnesota was No. 25 in the NFL? Didn’t think so. Also interesting, New Orleans is No. 29 in NFL. That’s not what I expected to see.

They Can Stop the Run
Indy played two very physical, very run-oriented teams in its first two playoff games and held both of them in check. Baltimore was fourth in the NFL at 148.5 yards per game (Indy held them to 87) and New York was first at 157.4 yards per game (Indy held them to 86). While New Orleans is much more diverse offensively, the fact remains that Indy can stop the run and make New Orleans one-dimensional… I don’t know if that’s a good or bad thing for Indy, actually.

They Can Run on New Orleans
Ranked No. 22 in the NFL against the run and ranked No. 30 in rushing touchdowns allowed. They allowed Arizona to rush for 101 and 2 touchdowns (although that number is very deceiving because of Tim Hightower’s 70-yarder to start the game); and they allowed Minnesota to rush for 165 yards and 3 touchdowns. While Indy is horrible at running the ball, you can be sure that they will at least try against this suspect New Orleans run defense.

So there you go, two semi-thought-out cases for each team.

I can see the following things happening:

Indy blows New Orleans out

Indy wins a close game

New Orleans wins a close game

I cannot see Indy getting blown out at all and the only way that New Orleans keeps it close or actually wins the game is if they get the same kind of turnovers that they forced against Minny. Given Indy’s ability to hold onto the ball and the way that Manning is playing, I can’t go against them.