000
FXUS61 KILN 172356
AFDILN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
756 PM EDT Thu Aug 17 2017
.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move through the region late in the overnight
and into the morning on Friday. High pressure will then briefly
move into the region, however another disturbance is expected
to bring additional precipitation chances to the region for
Saturday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
A round of much less organized thunderstorm activity will push
in to southern CWA from the southwest this evening and slowly
move east tonight. Increased the chances of storms here and
lowered significantly elsewhere behind the earlier line of
storms. Temperatures were adjusted for a few hours this evening
given the cooler post-thunderstorm atmosphere for the I-71
corridor, but are expected to rebound to be fairly uniform with
overnight lows in the upper 60s to around 70. The threat for
this second round of storms to produce any damage is minimal but
will be monitored through the evening.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Dry conditions are expected for much of Friday and into Friday
night. A quick moving upper level disturbance will approach the
region late in the overnight Friday night and therefore
introduced some precipitation chances across northwestern
portions of the area. Went close to conshort and superblend for
temperatures during this time.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Period begins with a H5 s/w swinging through the srn Great Lakes.
Extended models still are showing a range in their QPF forecasts.
The NAM is the driest, with very little QPF produced while the
Canadian hemispheric carries the most. Will continue with a
north/south gradient in the PoPs, going from 30 in the north to 10
in nrn KY. Highs will be seasonal ranging from 80 to 85
degrees.
The s/w pulls away Saturday night, allowing high pressure to build
in at the surface. The high will keep the region dry Sunday into
Monday. By Tuesday, models drop energy into the region from the
Great Lakes, bringing scattered thunderstorms. Cold front will drop
through the region Tuesday night lowering pcpn chances from n to s.
There are timing differences so kept PoPs across the entire fa
Tuesday night.
Front will gradually pull away from the from region on
Wednesday, bringing an end to the pcpn threat.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A second round of showers and thunderstorms will affect southern
TAF sites early this evening, but should only hit KILN with
non-thunderstorm showers and miss CVG/LUK with convective
activity staying to their south/east. HRRR shows this area
affecting the region east of the I-71 corridor and not reaching
CMH/LCK whereas the other models seem unrealistic by painting a
broad swath of storms along and even west of the corridor. These
missed the initial line of storms and are being discounted as
viable solutions.
Outside of shower activity, VFR conditions should prevail for
the overnight and into tomorrow. Some cu topped with AS or CI
from upstream storms will dissipate later this evening and some
patchy fog could develop and reduce vsbys to 5sm in spots after
midnight through daybreak.
OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms are possible on Saturday.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Novak
NEAR TERM...Franks
SHORT TERM...Novak
LONG TERM...Sites
AVIATION...Franks