articles by Andrew Macken

June 2, 2020

In this article for the Herald Sun Andrew identifies the economic cost from Australia’s ability to flatten the COVID-19 curve. If COVID-19 were not as bad as the forecasters led us to believe, did we need to impair the economy the way we did? Read here.

May 29, 2020

The power of compounding, or the “eighth wonder of the world” as Albert Einstein called it, can be counterintuitive sometimes. Small increases in annual returns, when compounded over long periods of time, result in very large increases in one’s investment. Continue…

May 18, 2020

First, it was Warren Buffett not buying stocks and, indeed, liquidating large portions of his portfolio to build cash. Then, last week, we had Stanley Druckenmiller tell The Economic Club of New York that “the risk-reward for equity is maybe as bad as I’ve seen it in my career.” As equity markets continue to rise, investors are slowly getting nervous about the upside potential from current levels over the short and medium terms. Continue…

May 12, 2020

Australia’s ability to “flatten the curve” amidst this once-in-a-century pandemic appears extraordinary. Against numerous epidemiological forecasts of a healthcare calamity, including overflowing ICUs and thousands of deaths, it appears the spread of COVID-19 has been largely contained. Continue…

April 29, 2020

Earnings season for the first calendar quarter is underway and we are observing a large number of strange disconnects between stock prices and business fundamentals. We show three examples below and conclude that equity market risk remains elevated. Investor caution remains the order of the day, in our view. Continue…

April 24, 2020

While COVID-19 is a humanitarian crisis, first and foremost, it has rapidly become an economic crisis too. And for investors in financial markets, the recent period of extreme volatility has done little to calm nerves. Continue…

April 22, 2020

In this article for the Herald Sun Andrew discusses the market volatility from COVID-19. Investors need to decide how they want to play this binary risk. There is no simple answer here, but understanding the nature of this risk helps us frame the problem. Read here.

April 15, 2020

In this article for the Herald Sun Andrew discusses how the idea of deflation is particularly scary for policymakers. Today, we have the combination of a global economy that is being disrupted by coronavirus at the same time as a once in a three-decade oil price collapse. This will surely be received as a green light by policymakers to throw the proverbial kitchen sink at the problem, as we are now starting to see. Which is not to say it will be overly effective. Read here.

April 3, 2020

For those interested in the up-to-date developments in our global portfolios, we wanted to share the following. As of Monday, March 30, we observed the following: COVID-19 data (daily growth rates in deaths and cases) shows clear improvement in Europe and Australia. Continue…

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