GameStop President Tony Bartel: 'Don't Count The Wii U Out'

John Gaudiosi
, ContributorI've been covering video games, Hollywood and technology for 20 yearsOpinions expressed by Forbes Contributors are their own.

Much of the focus heading into E3 2013 and coming out of the show has been the next generation of consoles from Sony and Microsoft. With PlayStation 4 and Xbox One slated to ship this fall just before the important Christmas shopping season, there’s another “next gen” console in the race.

“Don’t count the Wii U out,” GameStop President Tony Bartel told me. “Nintendo just announced that there will be new first-party big titles like Super Mario 3D World, Mario Kart 8 and a new Super Smash Bros. These are their big guns, and we expect to see a lot of interest heading into the holidays.”

Nintendo will also have exclusives like Sega’s Sonic Lost World, Retro Studios’ Donkey Kong Country: Tropical Freeze, Wii Fit U, The Legend of Zelda: The Wind Waker HD and PlatinumGames’ The Wonderful 101 and Bayonetta 2 coming to its latest console.

According to Michael Pachter, video game analyst for Wedbush Securities, Nintendo will sell around 6 million Wii U consoles this year without a price cut. He forecasts Sony and Microsoft will sell 3 million PS4s and Xbones each, which puts Nintendo in the lead in the next gen race.

But the Wii U has failed to capture the mainstream attraction of the Wii, which has sold over 100 million consoles since launching in 2006. A lack of big franchises – and way too many ports – has kept all but the Nintendo fanboys away from the Wii U, which is also more expensive than the Wii. Many big publishers, including Electronic Arts and 2K, have already bailed on the Wii U after lackluster sales.

“The Wii U is more of a loyalist Nintendo system right now and is looking more like the Gamecube, but our forecasts are higher than for the GameCube,” said Jeremy Miller, video game analyst for DFC Intelligence. “The Wii U and its lineup is very much targeted to a core Nintendo fan. In that it seems pretty successful. The problem is many people are expecting another Wii in terms of sales and we don’t see that happening. As a company Nintendo probably needs to learn to make due with a smaller but more dedicated audience.”

This is all good news for Sony and Microsoft, which will be supporting a pair of consoles each for the near future.

“We actually think initial sales for this generation will be better than last generation for Microsoft and Sony because of limited competition from Nintendo,” said Miller. “Consumers are ready for new game hardware, but they are also fairly savvy about purchase decisions. There is a great deal of pent-up consumer demand and it creates opportunity. Right now, we see both PS4 and Xbox One selling as well as or better than their predecessors in the first year.”

Miller said that Sony looks like they have the potential for another PS2-type market share dominance.

“It’s still too early to make the call -- this is the pre-season and the Super Bowl will be played on the field,” said Miller. “We can only look at the cards that have been laid on the table.”

Bartel said that when it comes to the PS4 and Xbox One, the architecture is similar, and both are gamer-focused platforms, but where they differ is in their unique entertainment elements.

“In the case of the Xbox One, the focus is more heavily placed on being an all-in-one entertainment hub for the living room, which is very much a natural evolution of what they’ve been doing for the past few years with the Xbox 360,” said Bartel.

Bartel believes the Xbox 360, as well as the PS3, will have extended life cycles even after the next gen launches.

“The Xbox 360 is a very capable system with a lot still to offer current and even future customers,” said Bartel. “The new design looks great and is a nice evolution of the system that should be able to help give more consumers a great gaming experience. Microsoft continues to support the Xbox 360, so it appears they plan to keep that platform viable for quite some time.”

Microsoft still has a lot of damage control to do following the Xbox One-Eighty it pulled with video game rentals, used games playback and always on digital rights management (DRM) issues. But they have a popular console in Xbox 360. Sony is in the comfortable lead position heading into the launch of PS4. That leaves Nintendo in last place, even if the company currently leads by default for launching Wii U first.

"A Wii U price drop would help drive sales into a more casual audience,” said Miller. “The Wii U is a great family system, but Nintendo has done a poor job of even communicating its existence. What they need to do better is have a more dedicated marketing campaign that explains to the average person what a Wii U is. Right now, many consumers still think the Wii U is just an add-on pad for the Wii.”

Nintendo has a strong line-up of games to ride, but it also has its share of work to do with gamers. Microsoft’s missteps seemed to have helped Sony, not Nintendo.