Americans Are Getting Less Confident About US Military Power

A slim majority of Americans (54%) say the United States is the
No. 1 military power in the world, down from 64% in 2010, with an
average of 59% since 1993. The lowest reading, 51%, was recorded
in 1999 as the U.S. was involved in a NATO-led multinational air
campaign against Kosovo.

The current results are based on the 2012 update of Gallup's
annual World Affairs poll, conducted Feb. 2-5.

While political and ideological groups view the United States'
military power similarly, there are significant gender and
educational differences. Men are much more likely than women to
say the U.S. is No. 1 militarily, and post-graduates are
significantly more likely than those with less formal education
to believe this.

When asked to assess the strength of the U.S. national defense,
54% of Americans say it is "about right," with 13% saying it is
"stronger than it needs to be" and 32% believing it is "not
strong enough."

Gallup has asked this question annually since 1999 as well as in
1984 and 1990. Typically, Americans have been more likely to
believe the country's national defense is appropriately strong.
The only exceptions were in 2007 and 2008, when slightly more
said the nation's defense was not strong enough than said it was
about right. Those readings came as the United States was
fighting concurrent large-scale military operations in
Afghanistan and Iraq, which began in 2001 and 2003, respectively.

On this question, political differences are apparent, with
Republicans and conservatives most likely to think the United
States' national defense is not strong enough, and Democrats and
liberals most likely to believe it is about right.

There are no meaningful gender or education differences on this
question.

Americans Most Likely to Say U.S. Spends Too Much on
Military and Defense

Although a majority of Americans believe the strength of the
national defense is about right, barely one-third are satisfied
with the amount the country spends for military and defense
purposes. Specifically, 32% say these expenditures are about
right, while 41% say the United States spends too much and 24%
say it spends too little.

The question is being asked at a time when defense cuts are
already set to occur, which could become even greater given the
additional cuts triggered when the debt ceiling supercommittee
failed to reach agreement last November. It is not clear whether
respondents answered the question only in terms of current
defense spending levels or took additional cuts into account when
answering.

Gallup has asked Americans for their opinions on defense spending
a total of 28 times since 1969. Over that time, an average of 35%
have said the U.S. spends too much on defense, 23% have said the
U.S. spends too little, and 36% have believed spending is about
right.

However, there have been notable shifts of opinion over time,
such as in 1981 and late 2000 through early 2001 -- time periods
near the end of Democratic administrations and the beginning of
Republican administrations -- when the greatest percentage of
Americans said the U.S. was spending too little on defense. But
that typically has been the least common view, with Americans
generally alternating between thinking the U.S. is spending too
much (as in the late 1960s through early 1970s and mid-to-late
1980s) and spending the right amount (as in the post-9/11 era
through 2007) on defense.

There are wide political differences in opinions on the
appropriate amount of defense spending, with the greatest
percentages of Republicans and conservatives saying the U.S.
spends too little and majorities of Democrats and liberals saying
the U.S. spends too much.

Implications

The United States has always maintained a strong military, and a
majority of Americans have consistently believed the U.S. is the
No. 1 military power in the world. The current percentage who
believe that, however, is on the low end of what Gallup has
measured over the past two decades.

It is unclear if the modest decline in perceptions of the United
States as the leading military power is a reaction to cuts in
defense spending in recent years as well as proposed cuts for
coming years. Defense officials have argued that automatic cuts
in defense spending, part of the legislation passed last summer
to raise the U.S. debt ceiling, would severely weaken the U.S.
military.

However, since the military makes up a large share of the overall
U.S. budget, any efforts to get federal spending and the deficit
under control are likely going to involve some cuts in military
spending. Although the largest percentage of Americans believe
too much is spent on the military, it is still less than a
majority. When Gallup asked Americans last summer whether
they favored
defense cuts as a way to reduce the deficit, 47% were in
favor and 51% opposed.

Survey Methods

Results for this Gallup poll are based on telephone interviews
conducted Feb. 2-5, 2012, with a random sample of 1,029 adults,
aged 18 and older, living in all 50 U.S. states and the
District of Columbia.

For results based on the total sample of national adults, one
can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling
error is ±4 percentage points.

Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline
telephones and cellular phones, with interviews conducted in
Spanish for respondents who are primarily Spanish-speaking.
Each sample includes a minimum quota of 400 cell phone
respondents and 600 landline respondents per 1,000 national
adults, with additional minimum quotas among landline
respondents by region. Landline telephone numbers are chosen at
random among listed telephone numbers. Cell phone numbers are
selected using random-digit-dial methods. Landline respondents
are chosen at random within each household on the basis of
which member had the most recent birthday.

Samples are weighted by gender, age, race, Hispanic ethnicity,
education, region, adults in the household, and phone status
(cell phone only/landline only/both, cell phone mostly, and
having an unlisted landline number). Demographic weighting
targets are based on the March 2011 Current Population Survey
figures for the aged 18 and older non-institutionalized
population living in U.S. telephone households. All reported
margins of sampling error include the computed design effects
for weighting and sample design.

In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical
difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias
into the findings of public opinion polls.