6. Australian government budget deficit for 2013/14 is now forecast to be AUD 30bn rather than the AUD 18bn predicted earlier.

But fundamentals aside, the short AUD position is becoming a crowded trade, as everyone jumps on the "short Australia as a proxy to China" bandwagon. The Goldman positioning index (based on the CFTC futures data) shows a record buildup in net short speculative positions.

Source: GS

This tells us that this trade, while correct fundamentally, is vulnerable to sharp upside corrections. The unwind of the short AUD positions could get ugly.