Comments

Yes, I think both are tied with McCain right now.
We don�t know much, just that Obama is NOT leading him by 9 points.
A Clinton 3-point lead could be, but I would think that the difference between the Obama-McCain and the CLinton-McCain margins are independent from the methodology.
Either Obama voters preferring McCain over CLinton are in the majority or CLinton voters preferring McCain over Obama are.

This poll implies that Obama does better against McCain than CLinton does, but many other polls showed the opposite.
Hm, I don�t know, I feel that those polls with a McCain-Clinton tie and a McCain-Obama +2-3% are more accurate, let�s hope that I am wrong.

Exactly polls will change and heres how:
Obama messes up on Nafta and the red phone AD works...Clinton wins Ohio & Texas primary. All polls shifted towards her right after those ADs. People wondered if the polling trends were true and they were.
Heres what I predict will happen now.. based on his losses in OH & TX he'll slip 3-5 pts in the national polls (as if they mean anything now) until the results are widely reported that he has won TX caucus. He'll also get some help from Wyoming and Mississippi this week and guess what people start talking OBAMA again and the national polls will rise again
And he HAS TO GO NEGATIVE, or he will lose and it is still his race to lose.
This is actually good.. if he is to be the DEM nominee he has to be able to bounce back sorta kinda like Hillary Clinton an prove that he can rally the troops, because what Hillary did is nothing compared to what the Red party will do

Obviousley this poll was done before Tues. Obama has No chance of beating McCain in a GE. Reason is HE CANT WIN BIG STATES, IF HE CANT BEAT HILLARY IN BIG STATES, HE'S NOT GOING TO BEAT MCCAIN. Besides, just like I've been saying to all of these Obama people; Florida & Michigan ARE GOING TO HAVE A SAY ! Sorry that pops your bubble but it IS REALITY. Hillary is VERY likely to win this nomination now that Obama was put to the test and he FAILED ! He wont (Or cant) answer the tough questions and he brings nothing of his own to the table. IF HE can overcome his issues with Rezko, The IRS, Farrkahn & secret Canadian meetings - He might make the VP and then go on in 12 years or so and have a chance to become President. He has alot of growing to do.

Um if I recall correctly John, Hillary is the one that can't overcome the issues of the IRS. To flip the coin on your argument how is Hillary going to win the medium and smaller sized states if she can't beat Obama on them? Most of them are purple anyways and that shows Obama's tenacity to be electable.

Here's a couple of factoids for ya - Hillary's NOT being investigated by The IRS and Obama IS. She'll deliver her tax records at the appropriate time, hers is more complex than Obama's because it is tied to The Former President - they have MANY MORE hurdles to clear than Obama. As far as winning the smaller States, If these people are TRUE Democrats, they will support their Candidate whoever it may be. But the trend in the Party right now is that Hillary brings home the bacon on BIG States that the Party must win vs. McCain in NOV.

Most of us here in Spoke would agree with you, except we were thinking of our own State, E. Wash - we are kinda embarrassed after the Caucus debacle here last month in which Obama won the Caucus by 24 points but won the Primary by 5 points. No wonder the Supersonics are leaving Seattle !

About those Clinton tax returns. The obvious reason she does not want to publish them too early is that she and Bill are quite wealthy, from huge book contracts and Bill's speeches. If she publicizes her wealth, people might think she can fund her own campaign, and contribute less. Obama is just showing his sophomoric political inclinations, by harping on a non-issue. He will just look foolish when Hillary publishes her returns after April 15, and just before the April 22 Penn. primary, and there is nothing to care about. Hillary is playing Obama on this one, and he's falling for it. Let Obama come back in 4 to 8 years and we'll all fall in love with him for the right reasons -- a track record you can believe in and the development of more sophisticated political skill.

As it stands now, the electoral college in the general does not bode well for Barack. He'd have to make some major dents in the South for it not to once again come down to OH, FL, and PA. Ohio showed in a major way on Tuesday that it was "too middle class" to relate to him. PA is a question mark,although everyone it has a similar makeup to OH. Florida, though, is where the really trouble lies for him. Aside from the demographics being way more Clinton or McCain oriented, Obama's recent attempts to stop a re-vote or allowing their delegates to count have to rub Floridians the wrong way. And if Barack's wish is granted, he could be in for a serious backlash from bitter Florida voters who feel shut out. Besides, McCain has been attached to the hip to Charlie Crist, and he is a top candidate for McCain's veep slot.

Yes I am a Hillary supporter, but more importantly, a democrat who is scared of losing another general election.

Hillary will NOT win in November. Do you think ANY young voters will come out to vote for her if she steals this from Obama????

Do you think ANY African Americans will vote for her if she steals this from Obama????

The right move for her would have been to concede a long time ago, but now she is posturing for a veep spot on the Obama ticket. Please! People HATE HER!! Why do you think EVERY Republican would LOVE to see her on the ticket in November? They dream and pray about this every night!

I just Obama has the cojones to stand up to the "old establishment" and say, "Either support me and make me the nominee unconditionally (meaning no Hillary vp nod) or else!"

The "or else" meaning he would go out on his own as an independent with I dunno, maybe Chuck Hagel or Ron Paul as a vp. I would actually love to see that now, if only to make BOTH parties sqirm.

Your reply has little to do with my argument. Hillary is already winning the states that she needs to win the general, and she's doing it without blacks and college students. Given their notorious low voting totals, both demos will be more prone to stay home on Election Day. On the other hand, Latinos would more likely get fired up for John McCain who is a border senator with a favorable immigration stance. And to support my origianl point, Hillary would currently be beating (if you include MI and FL)and on the verge on clinching over Barack if the Democratic nomination process paralleled the general election electoral college system.

"Hillary is already winning the states that she needs to win the general, and she's doing it without blacks and college students. "

- THAT, hands down, has to be THE dumbest thing I have ever read on this board! Oh really? Which states has she won that wouldn't go blue anyway in the general??? What a joke. Without blacks and the youth vote, Hillary loses Ohio, loses Pennsylvania, loses Missouri, and definitely loses Florida. McCain would wipe the floor with her.

You are so ignorant, it's not even worth arguing with you. Makes no difference really, Hillary will NEVER BE PRESIDENT!!! Only a fool like you would think so.

What is wrong with you people? Do you really think you can bully someone into supporting Obama? Do you think you make yourselves more convincing if you use insults? "'Retarded' monkey"? Who even talks that way anymore? Its like Larry the Cable Guy suddenly starting posting here. David J, do you want to sound like Larry the Cable Guy?

And Fred, you are the fool, and you owe Melissa an apology. The answer to your question "Which states has she won that wouldn't go blue anyway in the general???" is Ohio. You may remember that Kerry lost Ohio in 2004. And Kerry didn't win Missouri, so losing Missouri isn't relevant to her argument.

As Melissa politely tried to point out to you knuckleheads, the Dem nominee only needs to carry all the Kerry states (total of 252 EVs, a deficit of 18) plus either Florida (27), where Hillary has a good shot, or Ohio (20), where she has an even better shot, based on the make up of likely voters in those states (working class voters, latinos, oldsters, unaffiliated or swing suburban women).

Barack, for the reasons Melissa stated, would have a very hard time in Florida, and he had a hard time in Ohio (and the demographics don't bode well for him in either state).

Plus, based on the demographics, it looks like it is possible that Pennsylvania (21) could be a problem for him. If Barack were to win all the Kerry states but lose Florida and Ohio and Pennsylvania (deficit of 39), he'd have to knit together a miraculous array of wins in states like Virginia, NM, NV, IA, and I don't know what else to cross the threshold.

Again, this is based on assumptions from 2004 about the demographic make-up of 2008 likely general election voters and data from the primaries so far about the demographic clusters of support each candidate pulls, esp. clusters that overperformed.

Bottom line - Hillary just needs the Kerry states plus Ohio, or plus Florida. And that is very doable for her.

Obama, on the otherhand, doesn't have to depend on Ohio. He can turn Iowa, Missouri, Virginia, North and South Carolina, perhaps even Georgia from RED to BLUE. Hillary has a snowball's chance in hell of doing that.

You know this is true. Don't let your partisan bias blind your common sense. IF Hillary somehow steals the nomination you know she will lose. AAs and the youth vote WILL go to McCain and the conservatives will come out of the woodwork. Her only hope is that Obama and McCain are caught in a bathroom stall with Larry Craig.

John Tucker,
The problem with Kos and Josh Marshall is that they try and try but they can't drive a story. No one has picked up the supposed NaftaGate story and Josh Marshall is now calling it not a big deal. I'm currently listening to another empty talking head dour Jock Kieth Olbermann trying to emulate his old nemesis Bill O'Reilly, except that O'Reilly is infinitely more entertaining. After the election it will be interesting to see if these three Obaminations can return to their former selfs but I think they have become totally compromised and no one will pay attention.

"You know this is true. Don't let your partisan bias blind your common sense. IF Hillary somehow steals the nomination you know she will lose. AAs and the youth vote WILL go to McCain and the conservatives will come out of the woodwork."

A recent survey of 30,000 people by SurveyUSA suggests that the difference between a Clinton-McCain and an Obama-McCain race is very small in terms of electoral college votes.

Moreover, if your argument is that African Americans and youth will leave the Democratic party, why is the reverse - that if Obama wins blue collar voters and women leaving - not true?

If Obama wins the nomination while losing the popular vote (which is 49.5 to 50.5 counting Florida, 48.9 to 51.1 without - with Pennsylvania coming that may well become even), it will be Obama that looks to be stealing the nomination.

Both candidates are divisive, both candidates have a decent shot at beating McCain - and this race is not over.

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