MLB Stacking To Win It: 6-22-18

Stacking has been a popular way to bring down tournaments, and some stacks are even cash game viable. We offer three free top stacks of the night and will provide stacks in a wide range of price tags. We do want to make it known that stacks in Colorado are often fairly obvious and popular stacks. We don't feel the need to break down Colorado stacks and will be more focused on other stacking options. Unless we are struggling to find three others, Colorado stacks will be a top choice but not broken down. We tend to look at park factors, Vegas numbers, starting pitcher and bullpen numbers, and various offensive stats. Feel free to shoot us questions on Twitter at @BrentHeiden1, @JGuilbault11, and @dfcafe.

Houston Astros (5.5) vs. Danny Duffy (L)

SP Splits (2017-2018)

wOBA Allowed

FB%

ISO

K%

BB%

Hard% Allowed

Vs. LHB

.225

35.5%

.083

23.4%

5.4%

26.9%

Vs. RHB

.347

43.7%

.184

19.7%

8.9%

33.8%

Danny Duffy has struggled this season, sitting with a 5.60 xFIP, and allowing a .372 wOBA and .235 ISO to right-handed bats. He has already allowed 16 HR to right-handers on the year, nine of them coming on the road. With Houston's offense finally coming to life, this is a great stack to use tonight, and you can get contrarian with it by adding a few options that others won't consider. While I don't know if Coors will suck away all the ownership, but Carlos Correa, Jose Altuve, and Alex Bregman all have massive competition with DJ Lemahieu, Trevor Story and Nolan Arenado facing Wei-Yin Chen. Ownership should be a little lower on these names, but I wouldn't expect anything drastic. These three names above are among the more expensive options, and then of course you have George Springer. They are a pricey bunch, but deservingly so in this spot, and I am glad that they are so people are forced to make a choice. Springer stands out a ton here with a .410 wOBA and .281 ISO against left-handed pitching. He also has a .401 wOBA and .234 ISO against Duffy's changeup. In fact, Bregman, Altuve, and Gattis all have over a .200 ISO against his changeup. Correa sits at .190 and a .359 wOBA. Nobody stands out against the slider outside of Yulieski Gurriel, who has a .346 wOBA and .208 ISO. Duffy's slider isn't getting many outs, with a .376 wOBA and .271 ISO allowed off of it. When you get to the fastball range it is about what you'd expect from a reigning World Series team. Springer has a .500 wOBA, .386 ISO, and 43% hard-contact rate off of it. Bregman, Altuve, Correa, and Max Stassi all carry over a .400 wOBA. Marwin Gonzalez is a name that deserves better numbers against left-handed pitching. He has a 40% hard-contact rate, and 80% contact rate against southpaws, and first thing I looked was the GB%, but it sits below 40%. You can get exposure to these back half of the lineup guys, as they will get overlooked in this spot, although Gattis won't with how hot he has been.

Chicago Cubs (4.7) vs. Luis Castillo (R)

SP Splits (2017-2018)

wOBA Allowed

FB%

ISO

K%

BB%

Hard% Allowed

Vs. LHB

.324

38.1%

.163

21.8%

9.4%

38.1%

Vs. RHB

.301

25.2%

.219

27.3%

8.6%

30.6%

The Chicago stack wasn't fun against Matt Harvey, and that will take some sting out of this one again tonight. Luis Castillo steps in to pitch, and has struggled against left-handed hitters. Castillo is allowing a .379 wOBA, .255 ISO, and 44% hard-contact rate. HIs walks go up to lefties, and strikeouts come down just a bit. He also allows a lot more flyball production to left-handers, and there are a handful in the lineup already tonight. The Cubs are leading off Kris Bryant again tonight, but after that four of the next five hitters are left-handed and not overly expensive. If you want to include Bryant in your stack you can, but it is hard to choose him over Arenado tonight. Bryant has a .473 wOBA and .320 ISO off Castillo's 95mph fastball range. Anthony Rizzo is another one with a strong showing against that range, sporting a .420 wOBA and .286 ISO. Both Ben Zobrist and Kyle Schwarber have over a .200 ISO against the pitch, and are in the lineup tonight. Jason Heyward doesn't have much to show against this range, but does have a 90% contact rate off it, and a .371 wOBA in the month of June. Castillo does have a very solid changeup that he throws 25% of the time, and this is a pitch he can shutdown teams with. Contact rates are a little poor against it outside of Rizzo, who has a 76% rate, but the power numbers standout. Bryant has a .191 ISO against changeup, while Rizzo sits at .180. Schwarber is the big bat who has a .412 ISO but is rather boom or bust against these high whiff rate pitchers. The Cubs are a contrarian stack in a good ballpark, and ownership tends to find them, but I don't believe that will be the case on this slate.

Los Angeles Angels (4.7) vs. Marco Estrada (R)

SP Splits (2017-2018)

wOBA Allowed

FB%

ISO

K%

BB%

Hard% Allowed

Vs. LHB

.300

53.2%

.203

21.1%

6.8%

24.2%

Vs. RHB

.370

48.5%

.225

20.9%

9.1%

31%

Marco Estrada has held some offenses in check of late, but it is hard to say that will continue. He has allowed a .375 wOBA to right-handers this season, and 10 home runs. He has also allowed a .379 wOBA on the road compared to a .328 wOBA at home. A flyball pitcher that relies on two pitches is going to draw my interest. Estrada throws a low velocity fastball that averages 89mph 50% of the time, and a changeup he throws 36% of the time. His fastball is being blasted for a .383 wOBA and .305 ISO this season, while the changeup is a little better holding hitters to a .312 wOBA, but still a .180 ISO. Mike Trout is uber expensive, but probably a tough guy to leave out of an Angels stack. He has a .572 wOBA and .476 ISO against this fastball range. He is one of the five projected bats in the order to have over a 40% hard-contact rate against it. Justin Upton is the other bat with a .509 wOBA and .517 ISO against this fastball range. Both Albert Pujols and Luis Valbuena are corner infield options with over a .200 ISO against this range of fastball, and the contact rates are not bad either. Ian Kinsler is the only one with pedestrian numbers, owning a .290 wOBA and .154 ISO. Kinsler does have a .316 ISO in June, as he continues to push his power numbers higher. Jose Fernandez and Kole Calhoun have been swinging the bat well, but are not guaranteed for the lineup either. If they are in, both are punt options on the slate. Diving into numbers against the changeup, Trout has a .477 wOBA and .402 ISO off it, while Upton, Fernandez, and Kinsler all have over a .180 ISO. Outside of Trout, this is a fairly cheap group that will get lost on the West Coast.