Snow Showers In The East

Bitterly cold air is now affecting many parts of the UK and Ireland with winds originating from Siberia now making themselves felt across the country. These easterly winds continue for much of the upcoming week bringing an increasing risk of snow with severe frosts by night - meteorological winter is going out with a bang.

Monday morning is starting off frosty for most again with temperatures widely below freezing. Although many areas will again be bright with plenty of sunshine around this morning, we do have cloudier conditions with scattered snow showers feeding into central and eastern counties of England and Scotland, these showers bringing some slight accumulations in places. Further snow showers will affect central and eastern regions throughout today, turning heavier and more frequent at times, especially close to the east coast. Therefore the best of the sunny spells will be across more western districts today, but even here the odd snow flurry cannot be ruled out. It will be a bitterly cold day with top temperatures in the range of 0°C to 3°C, and feeling colder still in those brisk winds.

Snow showers will continue across central and eastern regions tonight, perhaps merging into a longer spell of snow towards the east and northeast of England later in the night. Despite the wind it will be a cold night with a widespread sharp frost forming. Tuesday will then be a very cold day with snow showers feeding in off the North Sea across many areas, these showers merging into bands of more persistent snow at times bringing the risk of some disruption, so it will mean that the west will be seeing the best of the drier and brighter spells.

METEOROLOGIST: BARBER

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You can see how it got pretty much the correct strength and wavelength of the ridge to the South of the UK and decent handling on the cold pooling to the North.
The GFS, for all its quirks, is a pretty impressive global model and whilst there are some scenarios it struggles with, the building of sub tropical ridges ain't one of them.
In contrast to this, we took a look at the FV3. This model is expected to supersede the GFS in August 2019, although this date still hasn't been confirmed. Here, again was the chart for today :-

Some big differences there. Note the low pressure across the Med and the lack of high pressure across the UK. It's been noted that the FV3 has a slight cold bias to forecasting, but this scenario really is pretty wide of the mark.
Obviously, NCEP have a far more advanced verification process than the one we use, but credit to the GFS for the impressive forecasting for today, but FV3? Back to school for a few more weeks.
METEOROLOGIST : MARSH.png" border="0" width="100%" title="Forecasters Discussion">

We sometimes mention when the GFS hasn't got a clue as to next weeks weather, but sometimes, just sometimes... It's the opposite...

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