Tuesday, October 02, 2007

Where it’s inarguable that the Indians hold the advantage in the starting pitching segment of the ALDS, it’s also a conceded point that the Yankees bring significantly more to the table than the Indians, who are certainly no embarrassment at the plate.

Much has been made of the “vaunted Yankee lineup” and rightfully so, when you consider how they finished in comparison to the rest of the AL in the important offensive categories:Runs – 968 (1st in AL)HR – 201 (1st in AL)Total Bases – 2,649 (1st in AL)RBI – 929 (1st in AL)OBP - .366 (1st in AL)SLG - .463 (1st in AL)OPS - .829 (1st in AL)BA - .290 (1st in AL)I believe they call that “running the table”, but it’s even more impressive that the only category that they don’t lead in all of MLB is HR, where they are surpassed by Milwaukee, Philadelphia, and Cincinnati, all of whom scored at least 75 fewer runs than New York.

Those 9 players, without adding in any other players’ salaries (Clemens, Mussina, Rivera, Pettitte, etc.) earn more than every team in MLB except for Boston (total payroll of $143,123,714)!

Those 9 earn $20,000,000 more than the 2006 Gross Domestic Product of all of New Zealand ($105,819,000)!

Consider that there’s another $5,850,000 on the bench with Vizcaino, Mientkiwicz, and Molina and you’re damn right that the lineup should be the most potent in MLB. For that price tag, they should have some thoughts on Nationalized Health Care while collectively working on Fuel Cells in their free time.

The interesting thing to note, however, is that outside of a historic year for A-Rod, the 2007 production from rest of the Yankees lineup was fairly modest. Posada has had a career year and Cano is an excellent hitter, but the numbers of the players not wearing a pinstriped uniform #13 aren’t too far off what the Indians’ lineup has produced this year.

Knowing that only one Yankee regular (not playing 3B) has an OPS over .900, an argument could certainly be made that the Indians should consider essentially pitching around A-Rod, not allowing him to exorcise the demons of playoffs past and frustrate him by nibbling with him and being more than happy to walk him time after time. By doing that, the Indians could make the Yankees’ lineup mortal and force the other hitters to pick up the run-producing slack created by neutralizing Rodriguez.

It’s feasible that A-Rod, with the possibility of opting out of his contract year, will press in the playoffs and continues his post-2004 ALCS playoff struggles. Of course, it’s just as possible that he goes completely berserk (with the opt-out clause in his sights) and goes on a historic binge to justify some sort of $30M/year contract in 2008.

I wouldn’t even let that become a possibility. Don’t let A-Rod beat you – leave that to the rest of the lineup and see how Rodriguez reacts to some frustrating plate appearances.

In the other dugout, the Indians rely on a much more balanced attack (not reliant on ONE Big Bopper) with a lineup that won’t strike fear into many hearts, but has matured to the point of consistently keeping the team in a game and, more often than not, coming up with the big hit in the late innings to propel the team to victory.

The Indians rankings certainly don’t have the look of a juggernaut, as they fall into the middle of the AL in all important categories:Runs – 811 (6th in AL)HR – 178 (5th in AL)Total Bases – 2,397 (6th in AL)RBI – 784 (4th in AL)OBP - .343 (5th in AL)SLG - .428 (5th in AL)OPS - .771 (4th in AL)BA - .268 (7th in AL)

While those numbers and rankings are far from eye-popping, they rank in the top ½ of every major offensive category in the AL and, on a team built on strong starting pitching, that’s more than adequate. To wit, consider that the Tribe scored 138 runs in the month of September (when they went 18-9), a full 42 runs less than the Yankees in 1 more game than New York.

Having 5 players with more than 20 HR and a 6th with 18 (compared to the Yankees’ 6 highest totals being 54, 25, 20, 19, 16, and 14) means that if one portion of the lineup is shut down, the depth of offense can make up for the lost runs. The offense isn’t dynamic or overpowering, but steady and functional.

Throw in the possibility that Pronk has come back at just the right time (his September line - .316 / .414 / .551 / .965 / 5 / 23) and ever-steady Vic the Stick’s September numbers (.271 / .370 / .471 / .841 / 4 / 18) show that he’s not showing any signs of disappearing in the middle of the lineup and the team may have enough firepower to outscore the best offense in MLB in a short series.

The series, offensively, will come down to how the Indians decide to pitch to A-Rod and how that decision will affect the rest of the Yankees lineup. The Indians lineup has been balanced enough in the past 6 weeks that, even if one or two players struggle in the ALDS, another part of the lineup is there to provide runs.

But, again, A-Rod’s performance in the ALDS may have more bearing on the outcome of the series than any other player and the Tribe’s strategy for dealing with him will play a major role. That is, if the Tribe pitches around Rodriguez, will another Bomber step forward or will the lineup pick up the slack? Or, if the Tribe pitches to A-Rod, will he continue his trend of playoff ineptitude or will he finally break out, putting the Big Apple on his back?