Toby Harnden was the Daily Telegraph's US Editor, based in Washington DC, from 2006 to 2011. Click here for Toby's website. Follow him on Twitter here @tobyharnden and on Facebook here. He is the author of the bestselling book Dead Men Risen: The Welsh Guards and the Defining Story Britain's War in Afghanistan.

Pre-match spin from Clinton and Obama

Full coverage of the US Elections 2008We're in that strange pre-results period when both sides are trying to spin furiously in advance so that their worst-case scenarios might not seem so bad and the medium ones can be hailed as major victories. On the Clinton side, Mark Penn, chief strategist, and Howard Wolfson, communications director, did a conference call. Then David Plouffe, Obama campaign manager, did a "pen and pad brief" here in the Hyatt Regency Hotel in Chicago.

Last minute campaigning has given way to spinning in anticipation

Camp Clinton challenged Obama to multiple debates in the coming weeks. This was curious because that's usually the underdog's strategy. Wolfson said the results were going to be "close and I think inconclusive" although they expected to "maintain our overall lead in delegates when we wake up tomorrow" (i.e. a lead including super delegates, which could mean a narrowish loss today). Plouffe's spin? "If it's close tonight for pledged delegates, we would consider that a terrific night for us." Anything less than a 100-pledged-delegate deficit, he suggested, would be good. So who's right?

Well, both. And neither. As is usual with political spin. Actually, that's a bit of a cop out. The Clinton spin was slightly more OTT Wolfson even suggested (slightly tongue in check) that "if Senator Obama doesn't win by 13 points in California, it will have to be considered a disappointing evening". If you think about where Clinton was only two or three weeks ago 30 points or so up in California then you have an idea of how things have changed.

Plouffe said that "this was always a fairly daunting day" for Obama. That's true but it's been hard for the Obama staff to hide their air of happy expectation.

Anyway, the polls are starting to close. The time for speculation is just about over and now the votes are about to be counted. I'll be blogging into the early hours US time to keep you updated.