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Topic: Timetables and Flight Information (Read 88999 times)

wishful thinking that the missing SA leg is in Sucre, this is the place that I saw on the Science Channel? a few weeks ago and has amazing Dinosaur fossils.

The city of Sucre is also known as the City of Four Names, being those names La Plata, Charcas, Ciudad Blanca (White City), and Sucre. On December 13, 1991 UNESCO declared the Historic City of Sucre a "World Heritage Site" in recognition of its rich history and its wealth of colonial architecture

I've been working on the timing for our Bolivian leg. We have several pieces of evidence to accommodate. Here are the terms:

1) A Canadian ex-patriot saw production working around wooden bikes and a U-Turn sign in La Paz, Bolivia. She wrote that it was on the day she took possession of her La Paz apartment which turns out to be located opposite El Monticulo. And she had previously written on April 25th that the move-in was expected to be "on Tuesday". That would be April 29th. This date will conflict another piece of evidence so be prepared to allow it to adjust.2) A traveler spotted Phil at the airport of Santa Cruz, Bolivia. The sighting was in the range 9 am to 12:45 pm. 3) A traveler spotted several teams at the Santiago airport on April 30th. He has estimated that they arrived in two bunches between 4 and 6 pm. 4) On April 29th, the only flights into Santa Cruz prior to Phil getting spotted were from La Paz and Cochabamba (I say Cochabamba when I hit my thumb with my hammer!). And, for the time period involved, there were no flights into Cochbamba other than La Paz.

A Difficult Conclusion:Phil was not on his way to La Paz on April 29th. He must have arrived from La Paz. So the Bolivian leg had been completed and his mat duties there were done. So the Canadian lady saw the U-turn and the wooden bikes in La Paz on the day before: April 28th.

With that in mind we can figure out the likely flights that teams used to get to Santiago on April 30th. Here is what I found for the two waves or groups that reached Santiago:

Wave 1:Fly Aerosur 210 leaving La Paz at 8:30 am and arriving in Santa Cruz at 9:30 amContinue on Aerosur 210 leaving Santa Cruz at 10:45 am and arriving in Buenos Aires at 2:30 pmFly Air Canada 93 leaving Buenos Aires at 4:00 pm and arriving in Santiago at 5:20 pmAs a potential bonus, if they arrived early enough in Buenos Aires, they could fly Aerolineas Argentinas 1288 leaving Buenos Aires at 2:45 pm and arriving in Santiago at 4:00 pm.

Needless to say, I agree with your above analysis. In fact it looks a lot like this, which I cited on May 12 on another thread(Spoilers):

I believe that a sighting of Phil midday on April 29 at VVI was making the connection between either of the 2 nonstop flights from LPB into VVI that morning and LA967 departing from VVI at 1205 to SCL with stop in Iquique. If it is to LPB, then Phil could not do a mat in LaPaz, turn around, and get a flight(actually the same one on April 30) that will arrive SCL prior to 1725 on 4/30.

If it is to LPB, then Phil could not do a mat in LaPaz, turn around, and get a flight(actually the same one on April 30) that will arrive SCL prior to 1725 on 4/30.

See, you missed the point. Phil could have flown from VVI to La Paz and done mat duties on the afternoon of April 29th. And from there he could take flights from La Paz to get to Santiago that will arrive prior to 1725 on 4/30. Here is how that could have happened:

Fly Aerosur 126 leaving Santa Cruz at 12:30 pm and arriving in La Paz at 1:30 pm.Phil performs mat duties 3 pm until next morning if needed. Then on April 30th:Fly Lan Airlines 965 leaving La Paz at 12:45 pm and arriving in Iquique at 1:50 pmContinue with Lan Airlines 965 leaving Iquique at 3:15 pm and arriving in Santiago at 5:25 pm

I'm not saying this is what happened. My point is that, in order to establish that it did not happen we had to show that Phil could not have arrived at Santa Cruz from any place other than La Paz.

Having established that we get to rule out April 29th as the day that teams performed tasks in La Paz.

Your prior post expressed this as your belief. But without the correct reasoning because, as shown above, Phil could have flown from VVI to La Paz and done mat duties on the afternoon of April 29th.

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I believe that a sighting of Phil midday on April 29 at VVI was making the connection between either of the 2 nonstop flights from LPB into VVI that morning and LA967 departing from VVI at 1205 to SCL with stop in Iquique.

LAX MIA AA252 1355 2142 connecting in Miami with MIA GRU 2330 0830+1 (Note: second to arrive if on schedule)

LAX GRU UA843 1405 1005+1 with a stop in ORD from 2005 to 2132 (Note: third and last to arrive)

4/23This means that the tasks in Sao Paulo will have to take until after noon at the very least and that with a 12 hour pitstop it will be after midnight when teams are released.

4/24, leg 2 There are numerous 2 1/4 hour nonstop flights from Sao Paulo to Salvador. However, choices are limited to the first 2 daily by virtue of the sighting of teams descending the exterior of the elevator just after 9am on 4/24. Those who were sighted could only be on this flight:

G3 1816 GRU SSA 0410 0625

Later teams could be on G31982 GRU SSA 0735 0950, but they will be quite a bit later to the elevator.

4/25 - 4/28, leg 3We do not know where teams go next. It could be Fortaleza, Recife, Manaus, Brasilia, LaPaz, Asuncion or elsewhere.

4/27 leg 4Teams arrive in LaPaz Bolivia from by air.

4/28 Teams do tasks in Bolivia and then have a pitstop in the LaPaz area.

4/30It is highly highly likely that there is a REST DAY in the Santiago area.What we appear to be sure of is that teams end up at Santiago Chile airport on this evening.

LAN801 2245 0355+2 SCL AKL

5/2Teams do tasks somewhere on the North Island of New Zealand from early morning until late evening when a pitstop starts.

5/3 and 5/4, leg 6Teams return to Auckland International Airport and fly out in multiple bunches from noon until midnight. Choices of routes from AKL to REP (Siem Reap) are:

AKL BKK TG990 1315 2100, connecting with BKK REP PG903 0800 0900

AKL SYD 1245 1415 NZ119 or 1325 1450 QF190 or 1550 1715 EK419 (note: since it is rumored that an Emirates flight was used, EK419 is thee most likely of the 3)these connect in Sydney to get SYD BKK with connection on one of these:1550 2215 TG996 1635 2255 QF3011700 2315 QF1

The AKL BNE route has several choices:QF126 1435 1625NZ739 1530 1720EK433 1655 1835 this then continues on to Singapore with BNE SIN EK433 2045 0150+1 and then SIN REP 3K595 0600 0700

The BNE BKK route has TG992 2359 0559+1. this would be followed by BKK REP PG903 0800 0900

Then BNE SIN has a flight after EK433 - SQ2246 2345 0545+1, but it is not in time to connect with 3K595 so teams doing thhis must wait for SIN REP MI616 1025 1135.Other flights BNE SIN are SQ246 2345 0545. This would connect with 3K595.

There are no flights BKK REP until the morning of May 4. May 4 reports of PG503 0800 0900 not having any teams sighted may be inaccurate, as it is the only flight that could get teams there from Bangkok by late morning since there was no possibility of them leaving Auckland in the afternoon and reaching Bangkok before 7pm.

Another route is AKL MEL 1300 1500 NZ2725 or 1615 1815 QF134Those connect with MEL BKK 1605 2235 TG982 or MEL SIN 1920 0100 EK405, which requires a connection to Bangkok or waiting until MI616 SIN REP 1025 1135.That connection on May 4 is either TG402 SIN BKK 0740 0900 or SQ970 0845 1010. Then a connection to PG905 BKK REP 1100 1220 is the next one possible.

One late team is probably on AKL SIN 2355 0645 SQ282 connecting there with SQ970 and PG905 shown above to avoid waiting for MI633.

Apskip, I see some information in your timeline that is inconsistent with the spoilers we know about. For example, I hope we don't forget that Teams may actually go to La Paz to ride the wooden bikes that were seen next to the "U-Turn" sign with red and yellow flags.

Also, I note that you have arranged flights with the pretext that 'these are the choices' when there are additional valid flights that accomplish the same thing. For example, if Teams make this choice of flights from Auckland to Siem Reap they will actually be scheduled to arrive ahead of any of the 'choices' you laid out:

Fly Emirates 433 leaving Auckland on May 3rd at 4:55 pm and arriving in Brisbane at 6:35 pmContinue with Emirates 433 leaving Brisbane on May 3rd at 8:05 pm and arriving in Singapore at 1:50 amFly Jetstar Asia 595 leaving Singapore on May 4th at 6:00 am and arriving in Siem Reap at 7:05 am.

Date of original post was May 15. this post has been altered to the below:

May 8, leg 8KC954 0705 1030 DXB ALA, then tasks in Alamaty(one of several connect points from Dubai to Moscow, not the one I consider to have the highest probability.Next most probable would be Astana, another large city in Kazakhstan.tasks in the afternoon and evening, followed by start of 36 hour pitstop

May 11, leg 10KC204 0625 0700 TSE DME (Moscow-domodedovo)I haven't a clue on where team would go in the Mosocw area since many of the good ones have been used by previous Amazing Race visits, but tasks would obviously be done

May 12 tasks in Moscow completed by early afternoon followed by 36 hour pistop

May 13 pitstop

May 14 leg 11LH3189 0705 0825 DME FRA

LH468 0945 1120 FRA PDX, then tasks until FINISH LINE

This segment of the total Timeline was previously the subject of speculation and still is. Nothing is really known for absolute sure yet. However, there are several things that appear likely:

1. The knowledge of Moscow (per Peach, which is as good as getting money from a bank) eliminates many branches on the total tree of possiblities from Dubai May 7 through to Frankfurt May 14.2. First and foremost is the high probability that the flight FRA PDX was preceded on the same morning by the flight DME(Moscow) FRA. This makes it unlikely that there are any tasks in Germany.3. That makes Moscow leg 10 of a total 11.4. Next we have to find a connection between Dubai and Moscow. There are only so many possiblitiies, those for which flights out of Dubai were in a west(but not too far), northwest, or north direction. Those include Halsinki, Talinn, Riga, Vilnius, Istanbul, Baku, Tashkent, Almaty, and Astana. The ones that have flights from Dubai are:

Baku 0110 J2016Tashkent 1230 HY334Kiev 1930 P5374Almaty 0705 KC954Istanbul 0400 SQ490Istanbul 1165 0745Istanbul 1430 EK121This table indicates that the highest probability destination should be Istanbul, but with that City having prior Amazing Races stop I doubt that it happened in AR13.

5. The one that fits best is Almaty, Kazakhstan. Now in addition to Almaty Kazakhstan has Astana, another large city with major international flights, including to Moscow. The amount of time between Dubai and Moscow has to be filled with exactly 2 legs and I predict that they will both be in the same country. I think Kazakhstan will be that country, as no other country fits the 2-stops requirement combined with flights to Moscow quite as well.

6. Peach, I agree that Dubai was only a transit point. I do not think teams stayed there for tasks and pitstop.

So if Kazakhstan was presumed to be the only country visited between the sighting thru Dubai in transit (assumed) and Moscow, then have we now located all the countries that we believe they visit this time?

And where do the NEL's usually fit in to the episodes?Only speculation, but I was wondering if a speed bump could be what delayed the African American team leaving NZ, or is that too early for a NEL?

And where do the NEL's usually fit in to the episodes?Only speculation, but I was wondering if a speed bump could be what delayed the African American team leaving NZ, or is that too early for a NEL?

Mrs. Shrek, there should be no more than two TBCs/NELS in AR13 if it is an 11 episode race as expected. The logic behind this is fairly simple:1. there are 8 elimination points to get 11 teams down to the Final 3.2. there is one final episode3. That leaves only 2 out of the expected 11 episodes to be a TBC or NEL.

Of course we don't "know" that there will be 11 episodes. However, the known timing from the April 22 to May 14 was a total of 22 to 23 days(depending on how you count the first and last day). The most recent "evidence " is AR12 taking only 21 days to do 11 episodes, but on slightly shorter route staying in the northern hemisphere exclusively.

Chateau, feel free to obtain the whole truth. Knock yourself out or wait until TV Guide or CBS lets us know. In the interim, I am comfortable assuming that it is 11 epsiodes. The only questions right now that could make it a different number are having a different number than one leg between Salvador and Bolivia, one fewer leg (than 2) between Dubai and Moscow, having a leg in Dubai, or having a leg in the Frankfurt area. All of those are improbable but not impossible.

Do we really know for sure that there are 11 episodes? If so, where is the evidence?

Chateau: I do know that I read somewhere online that it was going to be an 11 episode race, but I have sifted thru so many sites of various levels of dubiousness/believability/idle speculation, and I can't find the source again, so I can't provide the link right now, or even give an indication on how reliable the report was. Sorry. I know I felt at the time that it was probably truth rather than just spec, but that of course means nothing without evidence.

Georgia Peach: Sorry for not making it clear my previous post was indeed "Just Speculation" (as is this one) Thanks for highlighting that.

Askip: I agree there are most probably just 2 NELs/TBCs. They didn't have any TBC legs in Race 12 did they? - only the NELs for the Goths and the Hippies. I don't really know the stats for previous races like in what leg the NELs/TBCs arose. I was just wondering if a NEL in NZ would fit into the timeline as it stands at present, with the number of Racers spotted in Cambodia.

I followed the girls, and the camera... I would bet money this was a decoy, Sammyk you nailed it. The girls got into a WRP van near the Voodoo Doughnuts, the were asking people along the way where Voodoo was... YET NO CLUE was to be found there. They all got into a van and drove off.

Beside, the International flight schedule would not have placed them in downtown.

What's confirmed is TAR is in down! The producers clip boards were in view. We could read 13 - 1111 on the sheet. This is RACE 13.

Tomorrow morning is the likely timing of the finish. Early am, no one around... lets guess Timberline, the Falls, Washington Park, no not the Tram.

Mrs. Shrek, if the Auckland area time on May 2/3 had been a TBC, all teams would have been on their way before midnight on May 2. However, a NEL is just the same as a regular leg except for not having a team elimination. If there are 2 NELs for AR13, then they could fall anywhere including New Zealand. it really doesn't matter where they are.

By the way, it looks to me that the numbering 13-1111 confirms the fact that there were 11 episodes in AR13.

came after Puddin's post on May 14th where she says

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What's confirmed is TAR is in down! The producers clip boards were in view. We could read 13 - 1111 on the sheet. This is RACE 13.

If it is not obvious to you already I should point out that when she bolded the bit about numbering it means she is saying that the production activies that day were for the 11th episode. So your statement made the next day was not original and basically redundant.

Date of original post was May 15. This post takes into account new information from Schwarzmoor:

May 8, leg 8KC954 0705 1030 DXB ALA, then tasks in Alamaty(one of several connect points from Dubai to Moscow, not the one I consider to have the highest probability.Next most probable would be Astana, another large city in Kazakhstan.tasks in the afternoon and evening, followed by start of 36 hour pitstop. This is speculative.

May 13OPO LIS TP653 1730 1825LIS FRA TP588 1910 2315Note: this is the latest reasonable flight combinationto get to FRA before LH468 below

May 14, leg 11 0945 1120 LH468 FRA PDX, then tasks until FINISH LINE

This segment of the total Timeline was previously the subject of speculation and still is. Nothing is really known for absolute sure yet. However, there are several things that appear likely:

1. Next we have to find a connection between Dubai and Moscow. There are only so many possiblitiies, those for which flights out of Dubai were in a west(but not too far), northwest, or north direction. Those include Halsinki, Talinn, Riga, Vilnius, Istanbul, Baku, Tashkent, Almaty, and Astana. The ones that have flights from Dubai are:

Baku 0110 J2016Tashkent 1230 HY334Kiev 1930 P5374Almaty 0705 KC954Istanbul 0400 SQ490Istanbul 1165 0745Istanbul 1430 EK121This table indicates that the highest probability destination should be Istanbul, but with that City having prior Amazing Races stop I doubt that it happened in AR13.

5. The one that fits best is Almaty, Kazakhstan. Now in addition to Almaty Kazakhstan has Astana, another large city with major international flights, including to Moscow. The amount of time between Dubai and Moscow has to be filled with exactly 1 leg. I think Kazakhstan will be that country, but who knows.

6. Dubai appears to have been only a transit point. I do not think teams stayed there for tasks and pitstop.

Since whoever posted Porto before I wrote my post on SPOILERS thread has subsequently deleted it, it appears that Porto is highly speculative. Based on the airplane schedule from Porto to Frankfurt requiring teams to leave on or before 530pm May 13 to catch a 945am flight form Frankfurt to Portland May 14, Porto does not make optimum sense although it certainly could be the location.

One thing is sure. With a Moscow sighting on May 10 and LH486 on May 14, there has to be one stop between Moscow and Frankfurt to leg 10 in between those dates.

Well, since we've got from the 25th to the 29th of April to play with for Leg Two, could it be possible that teams travelled on land through to Fortaleza? It's a twenty-hour bus ride (not unheard of on TAR), and flights would allow production to gain on the teams...

Or is Fortaleza simply a connection point (for production) for somewhere in the jungle? (This is presuming that the chainsaw is for the use of production to clear unforeseen obstacles, and not the use of the teams. Having a logging task in the Amazon would be sacrilegous in this age of global warming and what not!)

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If they didn't change plans, the couple in Bolivia would have seen the setting up of tasks on a Tuesday (the 29th), when they moved into their new apartment.

I think the shifting of the La Paz sighting forward is an attempt to fit in the Phil sighting in Santa Cruz, but it would probably be more prudent to hold out for more evidence before insisting its absolute accuracy...

What do you guys think?

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