NCAA Football Week 11 Picks: The Tailgater Breakdown

The beer went on ice and the coals started getting hot a little earlier this week. We’re coming at you with a special Thursday Tailgater this week thanks to a pair of school-night showdowns with serious BCS implications. So crack open a cold one, and let’s dive into this week’s look at our picks against the spread.

It was a rough week for picks last week, so perhaps an early start will keep us from overthinking things. Two out of the three Tailgaters had (barely) winning records, but once again not a single of our Upset of the Week picks, for instance, would have paid off.

All in all, the first week of November proved as difficult to predict as October ended. When it all balanced out, here’s how each of us fared picking Week 10 games against the spread:

Matt Strobl: 5-4-1

Zach Bigalke: 5-4-1

John Mitchell: 3-6-1

For Week 11 we wanted to choose the best games possible. Thus we couldn’t pass up the high-octane matchups in Waco and Palo Alto. Because of that fact, though, we are using Wednesday lines rather than the usual final lines this week. (You can find odds information here. We are using the first column for this week’s picks, as it sat on Wednesday night at 10:30pm Eastern.) Knowing that there could still be movement in the Saturday games, who do we like this week against Vegas?

Oklahoma Sooners at Baylor Bears (-14)

Bigalke: Sure, they don’t have the historical relevance of the visitors. Sure, they don’t have the recent level of success of Bob Stoops’ team. But what Baylor does have is the better offense and the better defense in this contest. The forlorn little Baptist institution in Waco became a household name thanks to Robert Griffin III, but this team has consistently improved since the former Heisman winner went to the NFL. Even since last season, the Bears can clamp down on other teams’ offenses and facilitate blowouts of opponents rather than enduring shootouts. Oklahoma, on the other hand, is more erratic than recent seasons on both sides of the ball. Just remember what happened the last time the Sooners traveled south into Texas and pick the home team. PICK: Baylor

Mitchell: It’s interesting to note just how drastically different this spread looks today compared to how it looked during the summer. Oklahoma was a six point favorite over Baylor during the summer, and the spread has swung 20 points as the Bears enter the game as two touchdown favorites over the Sooners. 14 points might seem a bit much in a battle of Top 10 teams, it really isn’t that much when you consider Baylor’s offensive prowess. Baylor can score in bunches, and they lead the country at 63.9 points per game. This game being in Waco, in what could very well be the biggest game in school history, makes me lean toward Baylor. Also, Bryce Petty, Lache Seastrunk, and company can score in a hurry. If Baylor builds an early lead, with a raucous home crowd behind them, will Oklahoma be able to comeback? I just don’t have that much faith in Blake Bell. PICK: Baylor

Strobl: On paper this spread makes sense. Baylor, which started the year as a dark horse (at best) in the Big 12 has emerged as a favorite to win the league. The Bears aren’t just winning. They’re mauling opponents with an offensive savagery typically reserved for a given season’s elite teams. Perhaps that’s because we are, in fact, watching an elite team roll its 2013 schedule. Alabama, Oregon, and Florida State are getting the bulk of the attention, but I don’t think anyone in the country wants to play Baylor right now. This line started big and has stayed that way throughout the week; I see no reason to go against it. PICK: Baylor

Oregon Ducks at Stanford Cardinal (+10)

Bigalke: We all know what happened in Eugene last year. But Marcus Mariota looks like a man possessed, while Stanford continues to be formidable defensively while showing signs of offensive regression. The game is being played in the Bay Area this year, but that should hardly make a difference. This is Oregon’s opportunity to cement the #2 spot above Florida State for good, and a chance for Mark Helfrich to emerge from Chip Kelly’s shadow once the team gets back to Eugene. Remember, the Ducks are a lot like Baylor in many respects, but perhaps the most important is the fact that their defense is underrated because so many people are focusing on the blur. PICK: Oregon

Mitchell: Stanford is the last team to beat Oregon, and they have been able to give the Ducks trouble in the past with their physical brand of football. Their ground and pound, ball control offense is able to keep Oregon’s high powered offense off of the field. They also were able to hold Oregon to just 14 points in last season’s meeting. The Cardinal defense has trended up in the last couple of weeks, as they held UCLA and Oregon State’s potent offenses to just 22 points in their last two games. But, it’s hard to ignore just how dominant the Ducks have been this season, and I’m not sure Stanford’s offense will be able to keep up with Oregon this time around. The Ducks’ offense grabs the headlines, but they also sport a defense that is ranked 8th in the country in points allowed. Look for Marcus Mariota to continue his Heisman case as the Ducks take down Stanford by a couple touchdowns in Palo Alto. PICK: Oregon

Strobl: Oregon does this every year. The Ducks chug along, making roadkill of everything in their path until they meet a team with a defense. Last year, Stanford held the Ducks to a pair of touchdowns in a 17-14 upset. In 2011 it was LSU, 40-27. In 2010, Auburn in the title game 22-19. For a team that typically averages well over 40 points per game, these contests were very much out of character and stand as proof that the Ducks’ offense can be stymied by a strong front. All that said, Stanford’s defense last year was better than the current edition. Looking over Oregon’s schedule, it’s hard to find a team that has a stop unit with the chops to slow down this flock of Ducks. I can’t go against them until I have a reason to do so. PICK: Oregon

Virginia Tech Hokies at Miami Hurricanes (-6.5)

Bigalke: I know Duke Johnson is injured for the season. It doesn’t matter. Yes, the Hurricanes were last seen getting pummeled in the second half of their trip to Tallahassee. It doesn’t matter, because Virginia Tech was too busy losing to take advantage of the fact in the ACC Coastal race. It doesn’t matter, because the Hurricanes still have the better overall pick of talent. It doesn’t matter, because this one is being played in south Florida. And it doesn’t matter, because the Hokies aren’t playing anything close to resembling Beamer Ball this year. When you look at it all, what you really come to is the fact that Virginia Tech in 2013 plain sucks. PICK: Miami

Mitchell: Am I crazy for backing the Hokies here? After six consecutive wins that made Virginia Tech look like a legitimate contender in the ACC’s Coastal Division, the Hokies took a couple step backs the last two weeks. Consecutive losses to Duke and Boston College make it hard to trust Virginia Tech, but something seems a bit…. off with this spread. Even after Miami came back down to earth in last week’s blowout loss to Florida State, it’s hard to see why they would be less than a touchdown favorite at home against a team that has struggled so much in recent weeks. Miami’s offense has been sloppy lately, and losing workhorse running back Duke Johnson for the season will make it that much tougher for the ‘Canes to move the ball against a stout Virginia Tech defense. I figure Miami finds a way to win at home, but look for the game to be separated by a field goal or so. PICK: Virginia Tech

Strobl: Oh Vegas, you are wily. A line that opened at Miami -7 has clicked down to the current -6.5, and that has me on edge. As bad as Virginia Tech has looked lately in consecutive losses to (former?) ACC whipping-boys Duke and Boston College, they were only getting a single touchdown on the road against the ‘Canes. That in and of itself was alarming. But to see the spread drop even further? The loss of tailback Duke Johnson and QB Stephen Morris’ lousy play have Miami reeling. Bear in mind that the ‘Canes only points against Florida State came following two Jameis Winston interceptions. Obviously VT is no Florida State, but I’m comfortable with the notion that the Hokies can keep this close. PICK: Virginia Tech

Nebraska Cornhuskers at Michigan Wolverines (-7)

Bigalke: Who knows what to expect out of the Big Ten this season?! The Blackshirts aren’t exactly the Spartan defense that locked down Michigan last week. Yet last week’s Hail Mary to beat Northwestern suddenly makes it seem as though the universe is finally smiling on the Pelini family for a change. The Cornhuskers could still ostensibly play for the Big Ten championship if they can win out and beat Michigan State next weekend. And even if they don’t win this week in the Big House, they should still win you some money. PICK: Nebraska

Mitchell: Both of these teams have been overrated over the course of the season, and both have fell back down to earth through humbling losses. Michigan, in particular, was taken behind the woodshed last week in East Lansing. Against the Spartans, Michigan had -48 rushing yards, and had absolutely no answer offensively against Michigan State’s defense. Seven points in their favor feels like too much, but I’m going to go with Vegas. Nebraska’s defense is nowhere close to Michigan State’s, and the Huskers are a Hail Mary pass away from having back-to-back losses. With the Wolverines at home, I expect them to bounce back and take care of the Huskers. PICK: Michigan

Strobl: This is a tough line with the way Michigan has played defense (if you can call it that). It’s hard to be confident that the Wolverines will beat anyone by a touchdown given how poorly they performed in East Lansing, and going back even further, it’s been a series of very close games for the Victors. Yet the oddsmakers like them here, perhaps because they return home and are unlikely to face Nebraska QB Taylor Martinez. Or perhaps because Nebraska has been lousy against quality opponents. Whatever the rationale behind it, this line hasn’t budged all week even though there’s a pretty good split in terms of pick distribution. My take? Michigan isn’t as bad as it has shown lately. Nebraska is. PICK: Michigan

BYU Cougars at Wisconsin Badgers (-7.5)

Bigalke: Oh, how I agonized over this pick. Wisconsin is a team near and dear to my heart. BYU is a rival of another of my favorite schools, Wyoming. And that extra half-point Vegas put on the spread Wednesday night leaves me feeling quite uncomfortable. But while I have a feeling the Badgers will win this contest, the other fact remains that BYU has not lost by more than seven points since falling 38-28 at TCU last October. Trust Bronco Mendenhall’s crew to at least keep this close, if not pull off the upset outright and solidify its case for what could potentially still be a BCS season. PICK: BYU

Mitchell: BYU has won five in a row, as their uptempo offense has gotten rolling behind Taysom Hill. The Cougars are coming off an impressive win over Boise State last week. But that game was at home, and they’ve been a different team when they’ve had to go on the road. They had an inexcusable loss at Virginia, and beat Houston by just a single point. Now they have to go to Camp Randall, which is one of the toughest places to play in the country. The Badgers’ power ground game led by Melvin Gordon and James White will likely overpower the Cougars. Wisconsin has been downright dominant in the last three weeks after a seven point loss to Ohio State. Look for that trend to continue. PICK: Wisconsin

Strobl: BYU has proven me wrong several times since its season-opening stinker at Virginia. But while the Cougars have looked much better of late, they still have some weaknesses, particularly on the defensive side. And frankly, they haven’t seen a squad as talented as Wisconsin. Throughout the year I’ve been treating the Badgers like a one-loss team because that’s what I consider them to be. Official interference notwithstanding, they would have won a tight one on the road against ASU, meaning their only stumble has been against the Buckeyes in Columbus. A slow start against Iowa last week turned into a lopsided Wisconsin win; this team can hurt you quickly and in several different ways. PICK: Wisconsin