NFL teams try to move out of top 10 -- mostly for financial reasons

The cost of doing business in today's NFL draft is making some teams want to bail out of the top 10 spots.

"In simple terms, the value of the top-10 draft pick in the last 10 years has increased eight percent annually, while the value of the player hasn't increased at all," said Mike Lombardi, a 22-year veteran of NFL personnel departments and current columnist for si.com. "Those eight percent increases over 10 years have created an 80-percent gap between the value of the player and the value of what you're paying. Therein lies why nobody wants a top-10 pick."

In other words, teams are spending millions in guaranteed salaries and bonuses to unproven players just because it's the nature of the business.

Last year, the Dolphins took tackle Jake Long with the No. 1 overall pick and signed him to a five-year, $57 million contract that included $30 million in guaranteed money. Quarterback Matt Ryan went two picks later to the Falcons and received $35 million in guaranteed money.

This year's top pick, quarterback Matthew Stafford, agreed to a six-year contract with the Lions for $41.7 million guaranteed, and the value could reach $78 million.

"Every team in the top 10 is trying to trade out, " NFL Network draft analyst Mike Mayock said. "I've never seen a situation quite this heavy. Everybody knows we're upside down right now with this draft. The rookies are getting paid way too much money proportionate to their value. So teams are scared to death to miss in the top 10."

Consequently, that fear of failing coupled with the high price of paying a top 10 player might curtail the number of early trades.

"The trade chart that all teams use, it began to go out the window last year, and . . . it's completely out the window now, " Mayock said. "I think that any team in the top 10 that is looking to get out will listen to any reasonable offer."

It still seems to be a safe bet that some team, perhaps Denver at No. 12, Washington at No. 13 or the Jets at No. 17, will strongly consider a trade into the top 10 if quarterback Mark Sanchez, wide receivers Michael Crabtree or Jeremy Maclin or a top-rated tackle (Michael Oher?) are available at seven, eight, nine or 10.

"In today's world, because of the tremendous expense and guarantees, particularly with the top five and top 10 guys, you don't want to make a mistake, " said Carl Peterson, former president/CEO/general manager of the Chiefs.

"Because if you do it's not only going to hurt you this year, next year but ensuing years both with the cap and cash. So you had better be right."

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Brian Allee-Walsh can be reached at ballee-walsh@timespicayune.com or at 504.826.3805.