GrainCorp argued that merging with AWB would create a $2 billion company better able to compete with deep-pocketed foreign groups intent on expanding into Australia.

But without AWB, GrainCorp returns to a company with a market capitalisation one-tenth the size of its global peers and – with prized infrastructure assets on the eastern seaboard – an attractive target.

A 4 per cent jump in GrainCorp shares yesterday to $6.53 suggests the market is comfortable with GrainCorp losing the risk of integrating AWB and heading back to the chopping block.

Since the deregulation of Australia’s wheat markets in 2008, the bulk handling and storage groups have become more attractive to grains traders looking to own the supply chain.

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Rather than one export monopoly, some argue that Australia now has regional infrastructure monopolies, dominated by three major players – CBH Group in Western Australia, GrainCorp on the eastern seaboard and Viterra in South Australia.

Canada’s Viterra bought South Australia’s ABB Grain for $1.6 billion last year and CBH Group is viewed as an unlikely target. It remains a grower co-operative that leaves any would-be suitor with the task of convincing more than 75 per cent of its growers to sell. Which leaves GrainCorp.

Some speculate that the haste in which it put together its merger with AWB suggests it was already being circled.

Grains traders Bunge, Cargill, Glencore Grain, and Japan’s Sumitomo Corporation, which bought a 50 per cent stake in Australian grains trader Emerald, are possible contenders for the group.

With the bulk of AWB’s register now owned by institutional investors – and about 20 per cent owned by growers – Agrium is unlikely to meet enough patriotic resistance should AWB’s board back the proposal.

And as some ponder the loss of yet another Australian business to offshore hands, it is worth remembering that the industry had its chances.

Had the various grains groups been able to execute previously discussed tie-ups – AWB and ABB Grain is just one – perhaps the Australian champion would have had the chance to survive and thrive.