Yeah, on the 5th (or 6th?) I thought McSally had beaten Sinema. I was surprised mail-in ballots went Sinema's way. Whatever the case may be if she doesn't extend her lead there'll be a recount and we get the Arizona version of Gore-Bush.

eta: KG made a good point about the Green Party, too. Democrats have them to thank for the close call.

- Doc

_________________If you can't tell that he's the conman, congrats, you're the mark.

Ok, so wtf is going on in Florida?? I'm hearing Rick Scott has sent state police in to investigate and count votes.

Broward County are taking their time on counting ballots. Republicans, and Rick Scott specifically, are claiming its a conspiracy to steal the election based on nothing but this fact and a false belief / lie among Republicans that Democrats engage in mass-scale fraud as a matter of course. Mathematically, there should be a bunch more Democratic votes there just based on turnout models. It's hypothetically enough to flip Scott's Senate lead and has a very slim chance of flipping the governor's race as well.

At the same time, the county shows a ton of ballots that voted for the Govenor's race, but not the Senate race in its official tally. Based on demographic trends around the state, it's extremely unlikely this is because of a microtrend just within that county. Ballot design has been floated as a possible explanation, but even that shouldn't produce the magnitude of trend observed. Republicans are stating or implying this is because Democrat election officials in the county are manipulating the tallies. Democrats, for their part, think there is an error undercounting Senate votes. If *that* is true, then on top of the still to be counted ballots, Nelson is very likely to win.

I followed the Walker vs. Evers election very closely on election night. Almost the entire night the race was neck and neck in the reporting with it being a coin flip who was going to win. Milwaukee County, a major source of Democratic votes, had 99% reported, but its turnout was low compared to 2014 in a much higher turnout election everywhere else. Noting this, I automatically assumed that there must've been more ballots not showing up in that 99% number yet. Sure enough, they don't report absentees in that % and there were almost 50k more votes to be counted from that region. This brought the totals from the area in line with turnout models. Once those votes were counted, Evers got an insurmountable lead.

When the story of the absentee ballots hit the news, Republicans flipped out that this was Milwaukee inventing ballots to steal the election. Mathematically, that's so dubious. Those ballots should've existed. There's zero reason to think they were invented outside of Republicans' proclivity for lying about Democratic voter fraud convincing the faithful. There's probably still Republicans who think this, but fortunately Walker didn't go all-in on that.

I view what's going on in Florida as like that, but with more of a zoo atmosphere in a closer race.

Broward County are taking their time on counting ballots. Republicans, and Rick Scott specifically, are claiming its a conspiracy to steal the election based on nothing but this fact and a false belief / lie among Republicans that Democrats engage in mass-scale fraud as a matter of course. Mathematically, there should be a bunch more Democratic votes there just based on turnout models. It's hypothetically enough to flip Scott's Senate lead and has a very slim chance of flipping the governor's race as well.

At the same time, the county shows a ton of ballots that voted for the Govenor's race, but not the Senate race in its official tally. Based on demographic trends around the state, it's extremely unlikely this is because of a microtrend just within that county. Ballot design has been floated as a possible explanation, but even that shouldn't produce the magnitude of trend observed. Republicans are stating or implying this is because Democrat election officials in the county are manipulating the tallies. Democrats, for their part, think there is an error undercounting Senate votes. If *that* is true, then on top of the still to be counted ballots, Nelson is very likely to win.

Oh it's based on a lot more than that. Head over to Twitter and follow Marco Rubio and Alex Harris. As of a few minutes ago Brenda Snipes refused to answer basic questions and ran out of the building. Literally. I mean she promised to answer questions at this evening presser then did exactly the opposite and bolted out. Some ____ is going down over there. It would seem that even if they aren't overtly cheating, there is a level of incompetence at work that crosses into criminal territory. Laws are for sure being broken with how things are being handled. It's a total mess.

Confronted by reporters at her office Thursday, Snipes refused to provide even a rough estimate of how many ballots were yet to be counted and tried to explain the delay in final reporting by citing the high number of absentee ballots submitted.

A local ABC affiliate recounted its reporter’s confrontation with Snipes:

Quote:

“Could I please get a moment to go into the room and find out?” Snipes asked the group huddled around her. “OK, when I come back I’ll let you know.”

“But, Dr. Snipes, it is now Thursday,” Weinsier said. “We are still counting ballots in Broward County.”

“We’re counting five pages or six pages for each of the people who voted,” Snipes said.

“It’s a serious issue with me,” she told him. “I’ve been doing this now since Oct. 22.”

“But if it’s a serious issue with you…” Weinsier said, only to be interrupted again.

COMMENTS“We ran 22 sites, we ran 14 days, we ran 12 hours, we had a big vote by mail (during early voting), so don’t try to turn it around to make it seem like I’m making comedy out of this,” Snipes replied.

Manipulating the ballots to get within a hand recount so your fraud can be exposed is, um, a dumb plan for a criminal mastermind. Broward county can run incompetent counting procedures that get magnified in a high population area without it being fraudulent.

On November 8, Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL) claimed that “democrat lawyers” are trying “to change the results of [the] election” this week in Florida, a conspiracy theory that numerous conservative media figures are also running with. Rubio’s tweets argued that votes still being tallied, which are bringing a number of races within the margin to trigger an automatic recount, shouldn’t be counted, in part because the “law requires counties report early voting & vote-by-mail within 30 minutes after polls close.” In reality, Rubio botched his description of Florida law, and the officials in charge of counting the votes are Republican appointees.

Miami New Times: Republican appointees are in charge of recount. Shortly after Rubio tweeted his baseless charge of Democrats trying to steal the election alongside an erroneous interpretation of Florida election law, the Miami New Times debunked his allegations of illegal partisanship on the part of election officials. From the Miami New Times:

Quote:

Though Rubio is correct that the Broward elections department absolutely sucks, the office has never been accused (credibly, at least) of tampering with election results or illegally tipping the scales toward one candidate. There's also zero evidence that the Democratic "lawyers" Rubio references are up to anything more nefarious than normal.

Rubio is also leaving out some really important details. For one, [Supervisor of Elections Brenda] Snipes was a [former Republican Gov.] Jeb Bush appointee, so she's not exactly an obvious partisan. Two: The person in charge of election recounts at the state level is Secretary of State Ken Detzner, whom [Gov. Rick] Scott appointed to the job. Detzner and Scott were repeatedly accused of working together to hatch schemes designed to suppress Democratic votes over the past eight years. It is, frankly, a blatant conflict of interest for Detzner to oversee Scott's recount, but Rubio isn't complaining about that here. [Miami New Times, 11/8/17]

Sun Sentinel reporter: Rubio is wrong, “it's all there on the Div. of Elections website of the state [Rubio] represent[s].” In response to Rubio’s tweets, Sun Sentinel reporter Dan Sweeney explained that Rubio was botching the rules about the reporting of vote-by-mail ballots. As Sweeney explained, the 30-minute Election Day deadline Rubio referenced is only applicable to tabulated votes. In fact, unofficial results are due “by noon the fourth day after the election -- two days from now.”

Florida Statutes, 102.141(4)(b). Applicable state law confirms that Rubio omitted the fact that it is tabulated vote-by-mail results which are due “within 30 minutes after the polls close.” Furthermore, the statute allows for circumstances of delay that “do not permit periodic updates as required” as long as the department of state is notified:

Quote:

(b) The canvassing board shall report all early voting and all tabulated vote-by-mail results to the Department of State within 30 minutes after the polls close. Thereafter, the canvassing board shall report, with the exception of provisional ballot results, updated precinct election results to the department at least every 45 minutes until all results are completely reported. The supervisor of elections shall notify the department immediately of any circumstances that do not permit periodic updates as required. Results shall be submitted in a format prescribed by the department. [Online Sunshine, accessed 11/08/18]

Election officials clearly explained the reporting and certification timeline in 2018 and 2016. The reporting rule Rubio is misstating is not new. The Florida Department of State issued a “Timeline for Reporting and Certification of 2018 General Election Results,” which mirrored the one from 2016 and directed interested readers to 102.141(4)(b), the relevant statute. [Florida Department of State Timeline 2018, 2016]

Both before and after Rubio's tweets, right-wing media have gone into overdrive claiming that Democrats are trying to “steal” the election

Fox’s Sean Hannity: Democrats are descending on Florida and “my sources are telling me that … more votes are just appearing out of nowhere from [Democratic Sen. Bill] Nelson and Gillum.”

The Federalist’s Sean Davis: “Democrats are actively working to steal another election in Florida.”

Newsmax’s John Cardillo: “Don’t be shocked when Brenda Snipes, Broward County Sup. of Elections, mysteriously ‘finds’ more votes for Gillum.”

Radio host and professional Trump sycophant Bill Mitchell: “Typical Broward County shenanigans. 10's of thousands of votes being ‘found’, all magically for the Democrats. Never changes. Stay tuned.”

Mitchell: “Gillum won Broward with 68% of the vote. If all of these ‘magical new votes’ being found in Broward for Gillum exceed 68%, you know some BS is happening there.”

Twitter troll Laura Loomer: “Doesn't it feel like the Democrats are trying to steal the elections in Arizona , Georgia, and Florida? This is so disturbing. So much voter fraud.”

Fox’s Kevin Corke: “Sounds like [Rubio] is saying the #Democrats are trying to #steal an election. Paging the @TheJusticeDept.”

Conservative Review’s Daniel Horowitz: “How many races are we going to allow them to steal with these provisional ballots, lawfare, judicial supremacy, and illegal and unethical ballot harvesting?”

FoxNews.com's Stephen Miller quote-tweeted New York Post columnist John Podhoretz’s tweet that “Rubio is effectively accusing the elections supervisor in Broward County of holding votes in reserve ... to use tactically in a recount,” writing, “Rubio is correct.”

MSNBC’s Hugh Hewitt: Broward County officials are basically asking Democrats, “How many [votes] do you need.”

Turning Point USA’s Charlie Kirk: "Florida! Stay vigilant, the left has stolen races before with voter fraud and finding ballots after the election is over If you live in Florida volunteer for the recounts, don't let the left steal the governor mansion or a Senate seat Voter fraud is real”

*** And of course, [personal attack deleted]like waterdog posting right wing apologetics on a Mormon forum.***

Yet again another perfect example of hair-fire Right Wing FAKE NEWS in the making.

Manipulating the ballots to get within a hand recount so your fraud can be exposed is, um, a dumb plan for a criminal mastermind. Broward county can run incompetent counting procedures that get magnified in a high population area without it being fraudulent.

Dr. Snipes herself said she ran 22 sites. If this were a Republican-ran county you and KG would be losing your collective ____ over the lack of sites, ballot accountability, and Dr. Snipes' competence, at best, and her outright political complicity at worse.

Also, is anyone suggesting Dr. Snipes is "manipulating the ballots" or is this EAllusion making up an argument and then arguing against his own argument again?

- Doc

_________________If you can't tell that he's the conman, congrats, you're the mark.

Manipulating the ballots to get within a hand recount so your fraud can be exposed is, um, a dumb plan for a criminal mastermind. Broward county can run incompetent counting procedures that get magnified in a high population area without it being fraudulent.

Dr. Snipes herself said she ran 22 sites. If this were a Republican-ran county you and Kevin Graham would be losing your collective ____ over the lack of sites, ballot accountability, and Dr. Snipes' competence, at best, and her outright political complicity at worse.

Also, is anyone suggesting Dr. Snipes is "manipulating the ballots" or is this EAllusion making up an argument and then arguing against his own argument again?

- Doc

The Republican party, including Rick Scott, is suggesting Dr. Snipes is manipulating the ballots likely by manufacturing them or by other means. I criticized Dr. Snipe's incompetence a few posts above where you wrote this.

I followed the Walker vs. Evers election very closely on election night. Almost the entire night the race was neck and neck in the reporting with it being a coin flip who was going to win. Milwaukee County, a major source of Democratic votes, had 99% reported, but its turnout was low compared to 2014 in a much higher turnout election everywhere else. Noting this, I automatically assumed that there must've been more ballots not showing up in that 99% number yet. Sure enough, they don't report absentees in that % and there were almost 50k more votes to be counted from that region. This brought the totals from the area in line with turnout models. Once those votes were counted, Evers got an insurmountable lead.

When the story of the absentee ballots hit the news, Republicans flipped out that this was Milwaukee inventing ballots to steal the election. Mathematically, that's so dubious. Those ballots should've existed. There's zero reason to think they were invented outside of Republicans' proclivity for lying about Democratic voter fraud convincing the faithful. There's probably still Republicans who think this, but fortunately Walker didn't go all-in on that.

I view what's going on in Florida as like that, but with more of a zoo atmosphere in a closer race.

Yeah, absentee and mail in ballots aren't counted in the percentage totals that are shown on election night. There are still something like 300K mail in ballots to be counted in Maricopa County, Arizona.

_________________​“The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated communist, but people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists.”

Follow the thread... it's shameless. If this was happening in a republican district people would be ransacking the place. There is no defending it. The silence is deafening as those on the left applaud what's happening here. He's right too, what's the point of voter ID when they have the power to pull stunts like this? It's 2000 all over again.

Follow the thread... it's shameless. If this was happening in a republican district people would be ransacking the place. There is no defending it. The silence is deafening as those on the left applaud what's happening here. He's right too, what's the point of voter ID when they have the power to pull stunts like this? It's 2000 all over again.

Stunts like what? You’ve got a Republican appointed official in charge whose boss is a Republican. Let ‘'em count the votes. Already Republican rioters are gathering to try and intimidate folks into not counting the votes. Amazing how often you guys are against counting the votes.

_________________​“The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated communist, but people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists.”

Follow the thread... it's shameless. If this was happening in a republican district people would be ransacking the place. There is no defending it. The silence is deafening as those on the left applaud what's happening here. He's right too, what's the point of voter ID when they have the power to pull stunts like this? It's 2000 all over again.

Follow the thread... it's shameless. If this was happening in a republican district people would be ransacking the place. There is no defending it. The silence is deafening as those on the left applaud what's happening here. He's right too, what's the point of voter ID when they have the power to pull stunts like this? It's 2000 all over again.

Right-wing media claim Democrats are trying to “steal” Florida elections by insisting all votes be counted.

_________________Zadok:I did not have a faith crisis. I discovered that the Church was having a truth crisis.Maksutov:That's the problem with this supernatural stuff, it doesn't really solve anything. It's a placeholder for ignorance.

But of course. I forget what thread, but I seem to remember Kevin and others passionately insisting that the left has no intention whatsoever of having illegals vote in elections, *pinky swear* Something something, that's right wing conspiracy theory, something, something. SMH.