The economy of Russia contracted by almost 4% last year and is expected to decline further this year, according to the IMF (Economist 2016a). Russia being a resource driven economy and one of the top oil exporters globally, a large part of the downturn can certainly be explained by the collapse in oil price. Western sanctions following the illegal annexation of Crimea have apparently also contributed further to dampening economic activity.

An important question is how severe the downturn will be and how long will it last? A related question is whether one can observe external or internal economic imbalances in Russia that could trigger an abrupt further collapse.

Oil and the ruble

One thing that has collapsed already is the value of the ruble. The USDRUB exchange rate almost perfectly mirrors the decline in oil price (see the chart below). As the oil price has dropped to about half its earlier level, the ruble price of the dollar has approximately doubled.

As a result of the collapse in the USDRUB exchange rate, the USD-equivalent income of the average Russian in the third quarter of 2015 had fallen by more than one third compared to the summer of 2014. Thus, fewer Russians can now afford to go abroad or buy imported goods. However, the domestic purchasing power had declined relatively little – by about 10% (see the chart below, we were not able to adjust it for the peak/trough at the end of the year). According to the World Bank, the average consumer price inflation in Russia in 2015 reached about 15% while the nominal average income in rubles was growing.

Oil prices are volatile and difficult to predict, but the recent decline reminds observers of the severe and protracted decline that began in 1980. In terms of 2015 dollars, the oil price fell from around USD100 per barrel in 1980, and it did not return to USD100 until 2008. The price dropped below USD40 by 1986, and it did not rise to USD40 again until 2004 (Grennes and Goodwin). This extended period of cheap oil coincided with the disintegration of the Soviet Union. History is not destiny, but large and persistent swings in oil prices have not been uncommon.

Economic growth as a way to legitimize power

When Vladimir Putin rose to power in 2000, he inherited severe economic problems. Since then, the Russian economy has grown, real wages increased consistently from 2000 to 2013, but they have declined in 2014-15 (Economist 2016a). However, people have come to expect further success. After all, economic growth is one of the ways to legitimize power (another one being free and democratic elections). Various Russian economists and officials have warned that conditions may get worse (Zubarevich). It remains to be seen, how much economic hardship the Russian people will tolerate.

A reduction in the percentage of Russians living in poverty was a major achievement of the Putin administration until 2014. However, that trend has now reversed. Russian government data show that the share of Russians in poverty has risen since the oil crisis (Guardian). However, some wealthy Russians appear to be protected from the adverse effects of the crisis. The Economist has constructed an index of crony capitalism based on the wealth of oligarchs relative to GDP, and Russia is the most extreme crony capitalist in the world (Economist 2016b). Moreover, Russia is a country with relatively many billionaires, but relatively few millionaires. Russian officials are now considering raising the current flat income tax rate from 13% to 20% or moving to a progressive income tax (Wall Street Journal 2016b).

Russia also faces debt problems for some important financial institutions, such as the Vneshekonombank (VEB). Since becoming Russia’s development bank in 2007, it has made many bad loans, and may not survive without a bailout (Wall Street Journal 2016a).

The low oil price is a fundamental problem for the Russian economy, but it is largely beyond the control of Russian officials. The entire world energy economy has become more competitive due to improved energy efficiency and innovations such as the shale revolution. However, the government of Russia has at the same time failed to break the so-called resource curse and diversify the economy away from dependence on export of natural resources.

Internal and external equilibria

The above might lead one to think that a yawning gap has opened up in the public finances of Russia. The budget deficit has indeed increased. However, since a significant part of the budget income is oil based and USD denominated, the declining exchange rate has largely meant that the fall in USD revenue has been compensated by exchange rate adjustment. The result has been a budget deficit of slightly over 3% of GDP in 2015 (see the chart below) while the non-oil deficit has been relatively stable at 10-11% of GDP. The public debt to GDP is low at just above 15%.

Russia has been running a current account surplus for many years, as a result of which its net international investment position is positive. In addition, its foreign liabilities are largely in the form of equity investment. Issuing equity rather than debt protects against having to pay more rubles to service dollar-denominated debt when the ruble depreciates. This explains why the net foreign assets are the highest in the years of downturn when the stock market indexes are collapsing (see the chart below). Thus, also on the external front the economy of Russia is rather balanced.

In 2014 the Central Bank of Russia initially attempted to mitigate the collapse of the ruble by selling its foreign reserves. By 2015 it had largely stopped doing that, and allowed greater flexibility of the exchange rate. In fact, there has been more than one episode in both 2015 and the first quarter of 2016 when the Central Bank of Russia has bought foreign exchange on the currency market and kept the USDRUB rate below its market value. The reserve position of the Central Bank has stabilized as a result (see the chart below).

Conclusion

The economy of Russia has clearly been negatively affected by the collapse of the oil price. The corresponding fall of the ruble, however, while significantly reducing the external purchasing power of the average Russian, has also had the positive side effect of helping Russia keep its budget deficit at a moderate level. In addition, the Net International Investment Position of Russia is positive and has been strengthened further by the decrease in its stock market capitalization. The important remaining question is whether the remaining decline in the Russian economy will be mild and brief or severe and long-lasting. The answer depends partly on developments in Russia, but it also depends heavily on developments in world energy markets Currently the baseline scenario appears to be that of a prolonged moderate decline or stagnation rather than an abrupt collapse.

5845,141 Responseshttp%3A%2F%2Fwww.economonitor.com%2Fthoughtsacrossatlantic%2F2016%2F05%2F17%2Fthe-russian-economic-crisis-how-severe-and-how-long%2FThe+Russian+Economic+Crisis%3A+How+Severe+and+How+Long%3F2016-05-17+10%3A52%3A57Andris+Strazdshttp%3A%2F%2Fwww.economonitor.com%2Fthoughtsacrossatlantic%2F%3Fp%3D584 to “The Russian Economic Crisis: How Severe and How Long?”

Yes, the structure of production in Russia did change, but the expansion in some sectors was dominated by contraction in other sectors with the net effect of a decline in total GDP of
3.7% in 2015. Russia continues to be primarily an extractive economy based on exports of natural resources. As long as prices for oil, natural gas, and other minerals remained high, the economy grew. However, specialization in energy made the economy vulnerable to a price decline, and the economy is now suffering. The Russian economy would benefit from more entrepreneurs like Mr. Kaspersky.

Indonesia was a longtime exporter of oil and traditional member of OPEC. However, rapid growth in the demand for oil resulted in Indonesia becoming a net importer of oil. Because of its new status as a net importer, Indonesia withdrew from OPEC, although in 2015, Indonesia rejoined OPEC. Thus, the current low price is harmful to Indonesian sellers of oil, but it is beneficial to all Indonesians who buy oil and products that use oil as a component. Perhaps you could help us, but I think the Indonesian oil company is a state-owned enterprise, and its revenue may be an important source of the government's tax revenue.

[…] in Russia  the economy contracted by 4% last year and is expected to contract further this year according to the International Monetary Fund  and the recently tightened state requirements on the quality of higher education. The latter […]

[…] its role in Ukraine, and how this affects Russian’s lives, here are a couple of good reads: The Russian Economic Crisis: How Severe and How Long? or this op-ed piece in The Moscow Times Russia Economic Crisis Risks Stagnation, […]

[…] although Big Vlad may be making Russia look like a big scary bear on the international stage, the economy’s gone to pot, the population is declining, and political freedoms are severely restricted compared to Western […]

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First of all I would like to say excellent blog! I had a quick question that I’d like to ask if you don’t mind. I was interested to find out how you center yourself and clear your head prior to writing. I’ve had difficulty clearing my thoughts in getting my thoughts out there. I do take pleasure in writing but it just seems like the first 10 to 15 minutes are usually wasted simply just trying to figure out how to begin. Any suggestions or hints? Kudos!

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Today, while I was at work, my sister stole my iPad and tested to see if it can survive a 25 foot drop, just so she can be a youtube sensation. My apple ipad is now broken and she has 83 views. I know this is entirely off topic but I had to share it with someone!

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Hi! I could have sworn I’ve been to this website before but after browsing through some of the post I realized it’s new to me. Anyways, I’m definitely happy I found it and I’ll be book-marking and checking back frequently!

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Have you ever thought about including a little bit more than just your articles? I mean, what you say is fundamental and all. Nevertheless just imagine if you added some great graphics or videos to give your posts more, “pop”! Your content is excellent but with images and video clips, this site could certainly be one of the greatest in its field. Very good blog!

Howdy! I know this is kind of off topic but I was wondering if you knew where I could get a captcha plugin for my comment form? I’m using the same blog platform as yours and I’m having trouble finding one? Thanks a lot!

Do you have a spam problem on this website; I also am a blogger, and I was wondering your situation; we have developed some nice procedures and we are looking to swap solutions with others, be sure to shoot me an email if interested.

Howdy! Quick question that’s totally off topic. Do you know how to make your site mobile friendly? My blog looks weird when browsing from my iphone4. I’m trying to find a theme or plugin that might be able to resolve this issue. If you have any suggestions, please share. Thanks!

Hey there! Quick question that’s completely off topic. Do you know how to make your site mobile friendly? My weblog looks weird when browsing from my iphone4. I’m trying to find a template or plugin that might be able to fix this issue. If you have any suggestions, please share. With thanks!

Write more, thats all I have to say. Literally, it seems as though you relied on the video to make your point. You obviously know what youre talking about, why waste your intelligence on just posting videos to your site when you could be giving us something enlightening to read?

Hello! Quick question that’s entirely off topic. Do you know how to make your site mobile friendly? My blog looks weird when browsing from my iphone. I’m trying to find a theme or plugin that might be able to resolve this issue. If you have any suggestions, please share. Thank you!

Hi there! I just wanted to ask if you ever have any problems with hackers? My last blog (wordpress) was hacked and I ended up losing months of hard work due to no data backup. Do you have any methods to prevent hackers?

Hi! This is my 1st comment here so I just wanted to give a quick shout out and say I genuinely enjoy reading your posts. Can you suggest any other blogs/websites/forums that deal with the same subjects? Thanks for your time!

I am really enjoying the theme/design of your website. Do you ever run into any internet browser compatibility issues? A number of my blog audience have complained about my blog not working correctly in Explorer but looks great in Firefox. Do you have any solutions to help fix this problem?

I’m really enjoying the theme/design of your site. Do you ever run into any browser compatibility problems? A few of my blog visitors have complained about my blog not working correctly in Explorer but looks great in Firefox. Do you have any ideas to help fix this problem?

Thank you a bunch for sharing this with all of us you actually know what you are talking about! Bookmarked. Please also talk over with my web site =). We could have a link exchange arrangement among us!

Heya excellent blog! Does running a blog such as this require a large amount of work? I’ve no knowledge of coding but I had been hoping to start my own blog in the near future. Anyway, if you have any suggestions or tips for new blog owners please share. I understand this is off topic but I just wanted to ask. Thanks!

Thanks for a marvelous posting! I quite enjoyed reading it, you happen to be a great author.I will remember to bookmark your blog and definitely will come back in the foreseeable future. I want to encourage yourself to continue your great job, have a nice weekend!

Greetings from Carolina! I’m bored to tears at work so I decided to check out your blog on my iphone during lunch break. I really like the info you provide here and can’t wait to take a look when I get home. I’m amazed at how quick your blog loaded on my phone .. I’m not even using WIFI, just 3G .. Anyhow, very good blog!

Hey, I think your blog might be having browser compatibility issues. When I look at your website in Ie, it looks fine but when opening in Internet Explorer, it has some overlapping. I just wanted to give you a quick heads up! Other then that, great blog!

Hmm it appears like your website ate my first comment (it was super long) so I guess I’ll just sum it up what I wrote and say, I’m thoroughly enjoying your blog. I as well am an aspiring blog blogger but I’m still new to the whole thing. Do you have any points for rookie blog writers? I’d definitely appreciate it.

I do not know whether it’s just me or if perhaps everyone else experiencing issues with your website. It appears as if some of the written text within your posts are running off the screen. Can somebody else please comment and let me know if this is happening to them too? This may be a issue with my internet browser because I’ve had this happen previously. Many thanks

Hi there! I could have sworn I’ve been to this blog before but after browsing through some of the post I realized it’s new to me. Anyhow, I’m definitely delighted I found it and I’ll be bookmarking and checking back often!

Write more, thats all I have to say. Literally, it seems as though you relied on the video to make your point. You clearly know what youre talking about, why throw away your intelligence on just posting videos to your site when you could be giving us something informative to read?

My coder is trying to convince me to move to .net from PHP. I have always disliked the idea because of the expenses. But he’s tryiong none the less. I’ve been using Movable-type on a variety of websites for about a year and am concerned about switching to another platform. I have heard good things about blogengine.net. Is there a way I can import all my wordpress content into it? Any kind of help would be greatly appreciated!

Hi excellent blog! Does running a blog similar to this take a great deal of work? I have absolutely no expertise in programming however I had been hoping to start my own blog soon. Anyways, should you have any recommendations or tips for new blog owners please share. I understand this is off topic however I just had to ask. Kudos!

I know this if off topic but I’m looking into starting my own blog and was curious what all is required to get setup? I’m assuming having a blog like yours would cost a pretty penny? I’m not very internet smart so I’m not 100% sure. Any tips or advice would be greatly appreciated. Thank you

Howdy I am so grateful I found your website, I really found you by error, while I was researching on Google for something else, Nonetheless I am here now and would just like to say many thanks for a incredible post and a all round thrilling blog (I also love the theme/design), I don’t have time to read it all at the minute but I have saved it and also added your RSS feeds, so when I have time I will be back to read a great deal more, Please do keep up the excellent work.

Howdy would you mind stating which blog platform you’re using? I’m looking to start my own blog in the near future but I’m having a hard time selecting between BlogEngine/Wordpress/B2evolution and Drupal. The reason I ask is because your design and style seems different then most blogs and I’m looking for something completely unique. P.S Apologies for being off-topic but I had to ask!

Today, while I was at work, my sister stole my iPad and tested to see if it can survive a 40 foot drop, just so she can be a youtube sensation. My iPad is now broken and she has 83 views. I know this is totally off topic but I had to share it with someone!

Have you ever considered about adding a little bit more than just your articles? I mean, what you say is valuable and all. But think of if you added some great graphics or video clips to give your post