Edmonton Oilers center Sam Gagner, right, celebrates with teammates after scoring a goal against the Dallas Stars in the first period of a hockey game, Monday, Dec. 10, 2007, in Dallas. (AP Photo/Matt Slocum)

On July 22, the Edmonton Oilers and Sam Gagner will go before an arbitrator who will award the latter a one-year contract at a price point somewhere between those preferred by both parties; unless, that is, they can come to an agreement on a new deal before the hearing. Recent history – including an arbitration day deal between these two parties a year ago – is still on the side of a contract getting done but the longer it drags out the more it seems possible that the Oilers may need to consider their other options.

A one-year contract, either via arbitration or eleventh hour negotiation, will almost certainly mark the beginning of the end for Gagner and the Oilers. The best time for the two sides to agree on a long-term deal is now, while Edmonton has an exclusive negotiating window. If they can’t agree to a deal now, it says that the Oilers don’t value Gagner the way Gagner values Gagner, and it’s a gap that won’t be helped with 29 other teams potentially in the mix and overpayments inherent to the UFA system.

Gagner’s unique situation – because he is one year away from being a 24-year old unrestricted free agent, he has a lot of leverage – puts the Oilers in a bit of a bind when it comes to negotiating a long-term deal, but as it happens another unique situation offers a possible out. The other unique situation? The presence of Mikhail Grabovski on this year’s free agent market.

Bruce McCurdy wrote about Grabovski previously, even mentioning him as a potential Gagner replacement. And it’s a little startling to look at the two player’s scoring similarities since 2007-08 (Gagner’s rookie season and Grabovski’s first full year). Over an average 82-game stretch, Gagner has scored 18 goals, 33 assists and 51 points. Grabovski, meanwhile, has scored 21 goals, 28 assists and 49 points. Offensively, they’re within a hair of each other, and at even-strength Grabovski may actually have the advantage – in four of the last six season, he’s had better production relative to time on ice than Gagner. They’re similarly sized, with Gagner listed at 5’11”, 199 pounds and Grabovski at 5’11”, 183 pounds. Gagner has been tried at times on the Oilers’ penalty kill, while Grabovski got a cameo in 2009-10 with the Leafs and looked fairly impressive in a brief stint.

Getting a quick and dirty look at things through some alternative statistics, we see that Grabovski topping Gagner in four of the last six seasons is something of a trend:

In four of the last six seasons,

– Grabovski has been more productive point-wise than Gagner at even-strength.

– Grabovski has spent more time in the defensive zone and faced tougher opponents than Gagner.

There are three big items in Gagner’s favour. First, he’s six years younger. Second, Grabovski’s coming off arguably the worst year of his career while Gagner’s coming off arguably his best. Finally, Gagner’s a known quantity character-wise, while Grabovski’s post-buyout [expletive] outburst may be off-putting to NHL teams otherwise interested in him.

But then there are two big items in Grabovski’s favour. First, he’s likely going to come cheaper than Gagner – while it’s entirely plausible Gagner will command $5.0 million per season for the next five years, Grabovski might be available at a cap hit of less than $4.0 million and with a shorter commitment. Second, signing Gagner gains the Oilers nothing in trade assets; signing Grabovski allows the team to move Gagner in exchange for some other need at some point in the near future.

Does it make sense for the Oilers to pay the extra money, gambling that Gagner isn’t done improving? Or does it make sense to shave a few dollars and turn Gagner into a trade asset by signing Grabovski? One could make a case either way.

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