No team has won back-to-back Super Bowls since the 2003–2004 Patriots, which means the last eight champions have failed in their bid to repeat. Three of them — the ’06 and ’09 Steelers and the 2012 Giants — failed to even make the playoffs. Some writers have used this as a reason to suggest that Baltimore may be subject to a Super Bowl curse.

Of course, the idea of a curse — or a sample of data — doesn’t mean much in the abstract. Let’s look at some numbers on the 42 Super Bowl winners between 1970 and 2011. On average, those teams had a 0.676 winning percentage in Year N+1 (i.e., the year after they won the Super Bowl). Thirty of those teams made it back to the playoffs, one out of every six of those teams won the Super Bowl, and three more lost in the Super Bowl (the ’78 Cowboys, ’83 Redskins, and ’97 Packers). Some would use this as evidence of a curse — i.e., only 9 of 42 teams made it back to the Super Bowl — but again, we need some context.

I decided to compare Super Bowl winners since 1970 to three other teams: Super Bowl losers, the Simple Rating System champion from that season (which may or may not be a team that made it to the Super Bowl), and an average of all playoff teams from that year. On average, Super Bowl winners have the best winning percentage of that group in the following year. And Super Bowl winners are the most likely to win the Super Bowl. Super Bowl winners are less likely to lose in the Super Bowl the next season than the Super Bowl loser (thanks, Buffalo) or the SRS champ, but the defending champion is still the team most likely to make it back to the Super Bowl. The two Super Bowl teams and the SRS champ also make the playoffs the following season just north of 70%, well ahead of the average playoff team.

The chart below shows all of these results, which makes it pretty clear that being the defending Super Bowl champion is a good thing for future prospects (and it’s not too shabby on a resume, either):

On the defensive line, adding 3-4 defensive ends Chris Canty and Marcus Spears will allow Ngata to play nose tackle in 2013. That gives the Ravens depth all along the defensive line: in addition to Ngata and Jones, the Ravens have a rejuvenatedTerrence Cody and drafted Missouri Southern’s Brandon Williams in the third round.

At linebacker, things aren’t as bad as they could have been. Baltimore became the beneficiaries of Fax Gate, and get to replace Kruger with Elvis Dumervil after the Broncos failed to retain the star pass rusher. Inside linebacker is the bigger question mark, but there are three men capable of manning those two spots. The Ravens got lucky when Kansas State’s Arthur Brown fell to them at the end of the second round, and Jameel McClain (who had more snaps last year than either Lewis or Ellerbe) returns. Ozzie Newsome also signed Daryl Smith from Jacksonville, a steady veteran who will play until Brown is ready.

With three starters gone in the secondary, including one future Hall of Famer, you might think the secondary is the big issue. But don’t forget that the team’s top cornerback in 2011, Lardarius Webb, is back after tearing his ACL last October; he should be considered an improvement over the departed Williams. Replacing Reed and Pollard at safety are Michael Huff (former top-ten pick from Oakland) and Florida’s Matt Elam, the team’s top selection in the draft.

The defense and the running game, led by Ray Rice and Bernard Pierce, should be strong. The real question for Baltimore surrounds the player the team’s paying thirty million dollars to this season. Joe Flacco is getting paid like he’s a Hall of Fame caliber quarterback, but even winning last year’s Super Bowl won’t silence all the doubters. With Lewis and Reed gone, it’s clear that Flacco should be the face of the franchise. He’s lost two of his top three weapons since Super Bowl XLVII — if he can bring Baltimore back to Super Bowl XLVIII, no one will call him overpaid.

I wonder if this is the most roster turnover of any SB champion ever (by AV? By starts no longer on roster?)? It’s absolutely massive. The old teams are probably out because of free agency, and I don’t recall a similar upheaval for any recent champs…

Chase Stuart

I think we’ll have to wait until the season is over to see that — you probably want to measure how many games are started by players in 2013 who were starters in 2012.

The perception of a recent Super Bowl Curse might also have something to do with the fact that the champs are getting “flukier” in recent years. This is purely an exercise in Arbitrary Endpoints, but since 2005 here are the regular-season performance indicators of the SB champs:

Anyway, when demonstrably weaker teams are winning the title, it stands to reason that they’d play worse the following season than we’ve come to expect from a defending champ.

Chase Stuart

Good stuff, Neil.

Richie

Super Bowl winners are less likely to lose in the Super Bowl the next season than the Super Bowl loser (thanks, Buffalo)

Interesting. I don’t think I’ve noticed that before – the Bills are the only team(s) to lose the Super Bowl, return the following year and lose again (unless I’m missing somebody). And they of course did it 3 times!

Joe isn’t getting 30 mil this year, so I find it hilarious that you report that number. 29million is his bonus, which is prorated over the term of his contract. In fact his cap value (6.8mil) is LESS than his cap value from last year (8mil)