Green Bay Packers

Mon, Oct 14

5:15 PM Pacific

Game Analysis

Matt Stafford leads the NFL in air yards per attempt and Kenny Golladay will likely get plenty of targets downfield if Darnell Savage is unable to suit up. The Packers’ rookie safety has as many plays on the ball (1 interception and 2 pass breakups) as allowed receptions (3). Danny Amendola leads the Lions in yards per route run but he will be shut down by Tramon Williams, who is surrendering only 0.68 yards per cover snap in the slot (6th). Taylor Decker and Rick Wagner are one of worst tackle tandems in the league and they have an unfavorable matchup across from Preston Smith and Za’Darius Smith, who both rank in the top 10 in pass rushing efficiency among edge defenders.

Detroit’s star CB Darius Slay is set to return to the Lions’ secondary and they should be able to contain Green Bay’s receiving core without Davante Adams, who ranks 5th with 2.74 yards per route run. The Packers other wide receivers have combined for a putrid 1.04 yards per route run this season. Interior defender Mike Daniels may return from a foot injury just in time to face Billy Turner, who ranks last in pass blocking efficiency among 57 qualifying guards. Left tackle David Bakhtiari has a 93% pass block win rate (5th) and the All Pro should shut down edge rusher Trey Flowers. The Lions rush defense has been much worse this season with a drop-off in production from interior defender Damon Harrison, who has just 2 run stops after leading the league in run stop rate each of the past 5 seasons. Harrison did not practice on Wednesday for undisclosed reasons and his status is worth monitoring for Monday night. Green Bay’s ground game ranks 10th with Aaron Jones averaging 0.25 avoided tackles per rush (4th) and the third-year running back could be in for another productive outing after rushing for 107 yards and 4 touchdowns last week.

Matt Stafford’s success will depend on his offensive line holding up for enough time to hit deep passes. The Packers will likely lean on Aaron Jones and hope to get Devante Adams back in uniform as soon as possible. Detroit’s extra week of preparation and divisional familiarity almost completely negates Green Bay’s home field advantage according to our numbers. However, our model favors the Packers by 4.0 points even without their best wideout Adams, and the Packers apply to a 37-5-2 ATS subset of a 69-21-3 ATS Monday night situation that applied to the 49ers last week (that situation is 9-1-1 ATS against road teams off a bye week, in case you were wondering). I’ll lean with Green Bay based on the situation and I have no opinion on the total (the model’s predicted total is 48.2 points).