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Next up I’ll have a look at the other markets that I have traded or been watching during the week.

ZL – Soybean Oil

Soybean Oil surged higher on Monday and Tuesday after I had been stopped out of the trade. Prices surpassed the 61.8% retracement mark of the recent range with impulsiveness on Tuesday before reversed to finish the week back below this level. Given the volatility in Soybean Oil at the end of the week I am happy to be sitting on the sidelines in this market.

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CL – Crude Oil

Oil gapped slower to start the week after bearish fundamental news but finished the day higher and continued to rally through the middle of week. Prices have paused around the previous high and appear to be consolidating. The price is still to reach the falling 200 SMA which is where I may look to enter a Short position.

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SB – Sugar

Sugar continued higher to start the week surpassing the 61.8% retracement of the recent range. Sugar was subject to high volatility to end the week with prices trading in large ranges both above and below the 61.8% retracement level. Given the recent volatility I am not looking to trade Sugar at the moment.

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KC – Coffee

Coffee tried to stage a bullish break with prices closing above the 200 SMA in Wednesday’s trade before falling sharply to end the week negating any bullish momentum. I will not conclude a bullish break has been staged until prices can surpass the 61.8% retracement of the recent range at $1.32

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ZC – Corn & ZW - Wheat

Both Corn and Wheat attempted to stage a bullish break closing above the 200 SMA in Wednesday’s trade before falling sharply and closing the week well below the 200 SMA negating any bullish momentum.

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Lastly, I’ll review some other markets that I’ve been watching recently.

DX – US Dollar Index

The US Dollar looked to confirm my suspicions that I exited the trade too early with prices falling back towards the recent lows to start the week before reversing in the middle of the week to finish slightly higher back towards the 61.8% retracement level. Prices are still below the 61.8% retracement mark and the 40 SMA so there is no evidence of a change in trend at this stage.

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ZN - 10 Year Note

The 10 Year Note traded back up to the 61.8% retracement level to start the week. This level acted as resistance and the price fell from this level finishing the week much lower and closing below the now falling 40 SMA. It looks as though prices may trade back down to the previous lows at 128 or even further down to the 200 SMA.

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HE – Lean Hogs

Hogs pushed back above the 200 SMA during the week but finished the week on a bearish note with a full bodied red candle which finished below the 200 SMA.

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Daily Comment: Feeder Cattle opened higher on the back of the mildly bullish Cattle on Feed report but there was no follow through buying with prices trading in a small range and posting a doji candle.

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Daily Comment: The extreme volatility in Soybean Meal continued today. Prices traded lower during the overnight session trading back down to the 61.8% retracement level before bouncing strongly to test the recent highs. Prices finished well off the highs posting a candle with a long upper shadow.

Trade Review: Whilst the price action of the last couple of days has not damaged the bullish case at this stage I am happy to move on from this trade at break even given the extreme volatility.

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Here are my comments on the opportunities I’m watching based on the day’s price action.

SB - Sugar

Sugar retested the 61.8% retracement mark again during the session but bounced from this level closing higher and most importantly closing above the 16.00 level which has been acting as resistance recently.

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ZM – Soybean Meal

Daily Comment: Soybean Meal was lower overnight but finished the session strongly closing back towards the recent highs. The extreme volatility that has been seen in Soybean Meal may be starting to settle down.

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Daily Comment: Copper was lower again during the overnight session trading through the 200 SMA back down to the 40 SMA. Prices finished off the lows posting a candle with a lower shadow and finishing back at the 20 SMA.

Trade Review: No issues with the trade and I followed my trading rules.

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Oil continues to grind higher. Prices are nearing the falling 200 SMA. I will wait to see how prices react to this level before thinking about initiating any positions.

Definitely interested to see how this one plays, especially since you called this out weeks ago. Seems like a lot of folks will be wondering how much more steam crude has here before at least a partial retracement.

Definitely interested to see how this one plays, especially since you called this out weeks ago. Seems like a lot of folks will be wondering how much more steam crude has here before at least a partial retracement.

Yeah I am definitely one of those folks wondering whether this rally has much more steam, especially given the lack of any new fundamental support.

There is another possible resistance level at the 61.8% retracement mark at $48.50 just above the 200 SMA as well. I could see prices being pushed up to $50 to trigger some stops before the downward momentum starts.