Which MPs are facing the fight of their lives? Follow the money.

Sitting Members of Parliament have a lot of advantages working for them when it comes to re-election. One of the major perks is the allowance the House of Commons gives MPs for advertising — money they use to build name recognition and draw attention to their good works.

That riding-level media outreach is invisible at the national level, but it runs underneath the national campaigns like an undertow. Recent polls suggest no party is in the pole position for a majority right now. So that invisible marketing could make the difference between winning and losing for a lot of incumbents in marginal ridings — and that could have a big effect on who ends up in 24 Sussex when it’s all over.

Parliamentary rules say MPs can spend up to 10 per cent of their office budgets on advertising. That includes the cost of “print and other media to advertise the member’s name and contact information, assistance and services provided, constituency meeting announcements, congratulatory messages, seasonal greetings, partisan opinions or advocacy statements to the member’s constituents.”

So how do MPs spend this money?

In 2014-15 the House of Commons started releasing individual MP expenditure reports by quarter. Until this year, the House made public only annual totals. Tracking that spending back through 2012-13 shows some interesting trends that could provide clues about how hard individual members are working on boosting their profiles at home.

This analysis examines average advertising spending by MPs for the three major parties, the smaller parties not officially recognized by the House of Commons and independent MPs as a group. It also looks at average advertising spending by each party’s MPs in the three regions of the country most likely to decide the outcome of the next election — Quebec, Ontario and British Columbia. A separate graph highlights the dramatic difference in average advertising spending between the NDP’s Quebec MPs and NDP MPs from in the rest of Canada.

The top spenders tend to be the small parties with only one or two MPs — the Bloc Quebecois, Forces et démocratie, the Greens and the independents. If they’re running this year, the independents (who have split with their parties since the 2011 election) will have to do it on their own — so it makes sense for them to do whatever they can to remain visible within their ridings.

At any rate, the top spender in the second quarter 2014-15 was Conservative Lawrence Toet (Elmwood-Transcona, Manitoba) at $23,599.88. The lowest spenders were all Conservatives and they all spent the same sum — nothing: Peter MacKay, Rob Anders, Ed Holder, Scott Reid and Blake Richards.

Average advertising spending by MPs shows the NDP leading the pack among the three major parties — largely driven by spending in Quebec, where the New Democrat MPs are running well above both the House of Commons average and the average for NDP MPs outside Quebec. Liberal MPs have been consistently outspent by members of the other two party caucuses since 2012-13.

By party, the top spenders for the second quarter were: for the Conservatives, Lawrence Toet ($23,599.88); for the NDP, Quebec MP Alain Giguère ($21,193.73); and for the Liberals, P.E.I. MP Lawrence MacAulay ($12,802.47).

The NDP swept Quebec in 2011, winning 59 seats in a province where previously the party had held only one seat at a time. Many of those elected didn’t expect to win, but rode into office on Jack Layton’s coattails. With four years to consolidate their unexpected victories, Quebec NDP MPs are spending on average almost double the amount spent by their caucus colleagues in the rest of Canada.

The top NDP spender in Quebec was Alain Giguère in the riding of Marc-Aurèle-Fortin ($21,193.73). In the rest of Canada, Winnipeg MP Pat Martin was the top-spending New Democrat — but at $8,641.02, he spent less than half what Giguère did.

And this is where things get interesting. To form a government this year, the Liberals must capture a good many of the Quebec seats taken by the New Democrats in 2011. But they (along with the Conservatives) are being wildly outspent there by NDP incumbents. The Bloc Quebecois and Forces et démocratie each have only two members, while there are five Independents. To do well in the election, the Liberals need to win many of those seats now held by the NDP in Quebec — which may prove difficult, thanks in part to the level of advertising spending by NDP MPs.

Here are the top-spending Quebec MPs by party: for the NDP, Alain Giguère (Marc-Aurèle-Fortin), $21,193.73; and for the Liberals, Emmanuel Dubourg (Brossard), $13,426.54 and for the Conservatives, Steven Blaney (Lévis-Bellechasse), $11,169.02; .

The Conservatives can’t win another majority government without a strong showing in Ontario, repeating the party’s success in 2011. It’s no surprise, then, to find Ontario Conservative MPs outspending on average their NDP and Liberal rivals on advertising from their office budgets. As with the NDP in Quebec, the Conservatives won Ontario seats in 2011 they had not held for more than a decade; their challenge now is to consolidate those gains.

NDP MPs also out-spent the Liberals in Ontario. For the Liberals to win nationally this year, they must perform well in Ontario — taking seats away from both New Democrats and Conservatives. These numbers tell us Liberals will have to overcome significant advertising spending by their two competitors in those ridings they hope to win. The top Ontario spenders by party for the second quarter (July-September) are: Conservative Jay Aspin (Nipissing-Temiskaming), $16,133.03; New Democrat John Rafferty (Thunder Bay-Rainy River) $7,279.54; Liberal Frank Valierote (Guelph) $6,383.54.

Despite holding most of the seats in British Columbia, average advertising spending by Conservative MPs has trailed the NDP until this year. In the last two quarters, though, the Conservatives have jumped into first place while the NDP, the leader for the past two years, is now trailing even the Liberals.

Quarterly statistics can be deceptive, as MPs likely will stagger their advertising spending to increase it as the election draws closer. We’ll want to take a detailed look at the numbers for October to December and January to March. MPs also will have at least one quarter of 2015-16 to advertise — unless, of course, Prime Minister Stephen Harper opts to pull the pin before the scheduled October 19, 2015 election date.

Overall, it’s worth remembering that, while national polls do a good job of tracking national trends, what incumbent MPs do with their office budgets on the ground may make those national trends harder for non-incumbents to translate into wins on a riding-by-riding basis.

Christopher Waddell is an associate professor and director of Carleton University’s School of Journalism and Communication in Ottawa. He also holds the school’s Carty Chair in Business and Financial Journalism. He is a veteran of the CBC and Globe and Mail newsrooms and now works with iPolitics as an associate editor.

The views, opinions and positions expressed by all iPolitics columnists and contributors are the author’s alone. They do not inherently or expressly reflect the views, opinions and/or positions of iPolitics.

5 comments on “Which MPs are facing the fight of their lives? Follow the money.”

These expense figures don’t include the cost of flyers known as ‘ten percenters’ and ‘householders’, which in the case of many MPs, particularly so a few years back, exceed the cost of advertising paid for out of the MP’s office budget.

So I guess when the In and Out Scandal happened and the RoboCons got to spend over a million dollars extra on compaigning just before the election we can assume it had a great effect on the election. They agreed that they were ‘guilty’ and paid a $200,000. fine (peanuts for all the benefit they got for cheating). And knowing that they were guilty of the In and Out Scandal it wasn’t a stretch to think they pulled the RoboCall Scam and then when you look back and see how the RCMP went after Liberal Ralph Goodall (found innocent) ‘just’ before that election well you really have to wonder what they are going to pull in 2015. I mean it just looks like they can’t do anything without cheating or at least trying to. It’ll be interesting to see what they will pull eh.

The Liberals gave every politician ‘not’ holding power $1.00 per vote. They gave parents 1 year,s paid leave to look after their newborns (not $100.00 per ‘taxable’). Those are just 2 ‘good’ things that come to mind. Right now it is ‘anybody but RoboCons’ because the tax paying, voting, hard working public deserve better than being ‘Conned’.