September 25, 2006

Panda Psychics wrong

A month ago, a couple of “psychics” did the usual trick of playing the odds and predicted (using psychic powers of course) that a panda at Atlanta zoo would be pregnant:

Atlanta-born psychic Helene Frisch reported she telepathically connected with Lun Lun using "tone vibration," the release said. Frisch said she discerned that not only is Lun Lun pregnant, but she will likely bear a male cub by Sept. 4.

Remember that this prediction wasn’t really that much of a stretch since the panda was artificially inseminated last March: artificially insemination increases the odds of pregnancy.

Nevertheless, they were correct that the panda did turn out to be pregnant, and not that far out guessing September 4th: the cub was born two days later on September 6th. Playing the odds to be sure, but a good guess.

Nothing special so far then – playing the odds guesses worked out OK. Until today. In her guess about the sex of the cub, she had a 50% chance of getting the right answer with her “male cub” guess. Except, we learn today that the cub is female:

The 19-day-old panda cub at Atlanta's zoo was determined Monday to be a girl.

While new mom Lun Lun was in another den, veterinarian Maria Crane weighed the cub -- 1.4 pounds -- and discovered she was a female, the Atlanta Journal-Constitution reported.

The tiny cub's sex had been unknown because her mother held her so close, the newspaper said.

The “psychic’s predictions” have now been revealed for what they really were – guesses. Don’t expect the psychic to remember this error when she reports she correctly forecast the result.

Actually the Panda is somewhat deformed sexually and will either turn out to be a hermaphodite or will have the whole late testes descent thing happen. Or she'll get a sex change. Cross dresser? I'm out someone else's turn.

My dad is a doctor who delivers a fair number of babies. He's also a skeptic, but a bit of a trickster too. He has this trick he plays with expectant mothers occasionally. He "guesses" which gender the baby will be, and then dilligently records the guess in the patient's chart. Only he records the opposite of whatever he said out loud, so he's safe no matter what happens. :-P

(He of course then explains this to the patient, who gets a good laugh.)