Argentina Economic Activity

Argentina: Economic activity decelerates in July

September 26, 2014

In July, economic activity expanded 0.1% over the previous month in seasonally-adjusted terms. July’s reading marked a deceleration from the previous month’s result (June: +0.6% quarter-on-quarter). Compared to the same month last year, economic activity registered zero growth in July, which was down from June’s 0.7% annual expansion. The reading is based on a new calculation methodology—adopted by the national statistical institute in March in response to a request from the International Monetary Fund (IMF)—that shifts the base year of calculation from 1993 to 2004.

The new figures bring the official estimates closer to the independent estimates that local private analysts produce, which have traditionally pointed to lower growth compared to official sources. However, a discrepancy between official and non-official figures still exists.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast panelists expect official GDP to decline 0.9% this year, which is down 0.2 percentage points from last month’s forecast. For 2015, participants expect official GDP to grow 1.0%. Additionally, LatinFocus panelists expect non-official GDP to contract 1.8% in 2014 and to expand a meager 0.3% in 2015.

According to the National Statistics Institute (INDEC), consumer prices in the greater Buenos Aires capital area rose 3.4% in December compared to the previous month, which was significantly above November’s 1.2% rise.