Allison Hanes: Quebec chooses change, but will it be for the better?

The winds of change blew through Quebec Monday as voters swept aside the Liberal Party after nearly 15 years and ushered in the Coalition Avenir Québec.

It was an historic day in politics. This is the first time the CAQ has clinched power, since it was formed in 2011. It dealt a stinging rebuke to the Liberals who steered Quebec to a position of prosperity over the last four years, and reduced the sovereignist Parti Québécois to a rump in the National Assembly. It’s the first time any party, besides the Liberals or the PQ, has formed a government in Quebec since 1970. Another young party, Québec solidaire, also soared to new heights on this fresh breeze.

But this changing of the political guard was only one gust on what turned out to be a momentous day. A redrawn NAFTA was reached in principle after intense bargaining. Canada opened its protected dairy sector, which is heavily concentrated in Quebec. While details were still trickling out about just how the rechristened United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement will affect Quebec dairy farmers, this key compromise may have sparked nationalist passions anew at a sensitive moment.

The head of UPAC, Quebec’s anti-corruption squad, chose voting day to announce his resignation. Robert Lafrenière has a track record for making waves during major political events. UPAC arrested Liberal cabinet minister Nathalie Normandeau the day of the 2016 budget. Lafrenière appears to be sending a parting message to the political class, which has questioned his credibility after a series of failures and scandals rocked UPAC.

The Montreal Canadiens also announced its new captain. Shea Weber replaces Max Pacioretty after bitter contract talks ended with the winger’s move to Las Vegas.

It’s as if change was written in the stars for Monday, Oct. 1, 2018, Quebec’s first ever fixed-date election.

Quebec has a habit of throwing caution to the wind and wholeheartedly adopting change — virtually overnight. During the Quiet Revolution, Quebecers overthrew the Catholic Church as the dominant force ruling daily life and embraced modernity. This social awakening also contributed to a political one after La Grande Noirceur of the Duplessis era.

For nearly half a century, Quebec politics has been a pas de deux between the federalist Liberals and the sovereignist PQ. Others, from the Equality Party to the Action Démocratique du Québec, tried and failed over the years to break this duopoly. The CAQ has finally prevailed.

But change, when it happens, crashes over Quebec in waves. The CAQ took 38 per cent of the vote, the Liberals just 25.

In taking separation off the ballot by vowing no referendum in a first mandate, the PQ opened the floodgates. The right-leaning CAQ bills itself as “nationalists within Canada.” Although Premier-elect François Legault is himself a former Péquiste, rebranded, Quebecers weren’t forced to put their stance on sovereignty or federalism above all other issues for the first time in generations.

But in electing the CAQ, has Quebec chosen genuine change, or change for the sake of change?

The Quebec Liberals have governed for all but 18 months of a PQ minority since 2003. Fatigue naturally set in among voters. But the Liberals, who have been in power since 2014 under outgoing Premier Philippe Couillard, transformed Quebec in four short years. They turned a monstrous deficit into billion-dollar surpluses, presided over unparalleled prosperity and oversaw record low unemployment. They left Quebec finances and the economy in better shape than they found them. They were punished by Quebecers bitter over the toll of the budget compressions it took to achieve the turnaround or abandoned by voters who support them by default in the absence of the national question.

Quebecers’ rejection of the Liberals demonstrates not only how cruel and thankless politics can be, but how fleeting the appetite for change often is.

But it sure is intoxicating in the moment.

Ontario, too, recently turfed a Liberal government it was disenchanted with after 15 years. However Ontarians, disgruntled over skyrocketing hydro rates and huge deficits, may have cut off their noses to spite their faces. They elected a populist who is now going about systematically dismantling the progress of the last decades. Many are already having regrets.

For the most part, Legault’s CAQ seems more inclined to pick up where the Liberals left off. On many points, the Liberal and CAQ platforms are similar. But on contentious issues, like immigration and identity, and crucial matters, like climate change, the CAQ may steer Quebec in a worrisome direction.

Change is in the air for Quebec. Let’s hope it’s the kind of change Quebecers bargained for.

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