Windows Phone is headed for a life of fragmentation

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If you’re one of the handful who has taken a Windows Phone leap of faith, bad news: Your device is forever stuck with Windows Phone 7. People close to the company say Microsoft will only make Windows Phone 8 available on new phones that are released later this year, according to reports.

Microsoft has confirmed that WP7 apps will run on WP8, but nothing more. Why would Redmond do anything different? Think about it: Microsoft, with partner Nokia, is in the midst the biggest launch in the platform’s history with the Lumia 900. Any news that this phone will be obsolete when WP8 drops — which is just a few months away — will kill sales.

It’s not like reporters and bloggers haven’t tried to pin Microsoft down on the issue. Long-time Microsoft pundit Mary Jo Foley prodded the company for answers in March, and got the same story as everyone else. Microsoft is definitely hiding something: its “early adopters” are about to be marooned, and that nasty f-word is about to surface: fragmentation.

Android users know all about this. Google touts the latest features available on Android, but end users don’t see them because developers are too busy developing for operating system versions released two years ago. On the market right now are phones with Android 2.2 Froyo. That version of Android is now two years old, released in May 2010. Most never see an upgrade because it is the device manufacturer and carrier (not Google) who is responsible for shipping out new code. History shows Android partners do a crappy job in this department.

The developers now choose between using the latest and greatest features of Android and locking out a good portion of users, or developing applications that take into account the fact that a majority of Android users are stuck on outdated software. The lowest common denominator is always going to win as developers want their apps in front of as many people as possible.

The iOS platform is completely different, and this is due to Apple’s commitment to legacy support. The iPhone 3GS is a great example here. When launched in 2009, iOS 3 was included on the device. Today, that same 3GS can run the most current version of iOS 5 without a problem. A three-year old phone is still current, and developers are not hamstrung by a majority of users on old platforms because Apple pushes and enables users to upgrade.

Microsoft has chosen Android’s fragmented path against any good sense. While I understand this likely has to do with the drastic code changes under the hood, it still does not make sense why older legacy devices cannot be factored into the equation. Windows Phone developers must now contend with the fact that a sizable portion of the market will never be able to upgrade. Apps written for the lowest common denominator win again.

Redmond would have been far smarter to adjust its plans for WP8 and fold its early adopters into the mix. I’m willing to bet that some of the advantage that iOS holds over Android has to do with the fact that users receive first-party support from Apple for years. Purchasing an iPhone seems like better value as a result, and the consumer is happy they still have a (somewhat) current device.

Fragmentation is never a good strategy, and especially if you’re trying to push the envelope of mobile development or make some waves in the mobile space.

Pissing off the customers who just put their faith in your platform isn’t the best way to make an impression. So why do it?

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Nice to see an article that shows the benefits of Apple’s business model whilst still being objective. I’m not an Apple fan but they do what they do very well.

John

Agreed. I just wish iOS was more geek friendly :(

https://launchpad.net/~silverwave silverwave

I think this is just ppl not doing their homework.

Buying a MS v1 product always ends in tears.

Its a harsh lesson that every new generation of users learns.

Michael Garrett

The reason Android phones are ‘fragmented’ is not because of the OS but because of the manufacturers. They put their custom versions on each phone and when a new upgrade comes, they have to create a new custom version for EVERY device. Apple sidesteps this issue because they only have like 5 models TOTAL.

If Microsoft is smart, they’d learn from this issue. They would force their consumers (Nokia, HTC, etc) to run a vanilla WP8 experience and only allow a thin layer of customization (app packs, themes).

Its the manufactures that add things like Sense, TouchWiz, and MotoBlur that slow the upgrading process. Remove the freedom to add such non-sense and youll see a story on ET in a year about how Microsoft got this right.

Vrajesh Parekh

You’re right man, things like Motoblur slow down (stuck) the upgrade.

Robert DiNicolas

This is only partially true. You are correct that the carriers/manufacturers have created extra work for themselves by having their own UI layer. But… that only accounts for part of the upgrade problem. Getting hardware drivers to work on the newer releases (like ics) is probably a much bigger effort. Cyanogenmod 9 is still in beta because of all of these challenges.

Additionally, with each major android update comes new API features for developers. As a developer, I have to choose whether I want to use these new features, improving the quality of my app significantly, or continue to use the older api to support a larger variety of devices.

With iOS devices, this isn’t such a problem because most people update their devices to the latest supported version. That process happens quickly because apple is the entity pushing the updates to everyone, at the same time. Android, on the other hand, is done by the carriers if you don’t have a Nexus device. Even Google is having trouble updating the Nexus S to ICS and they have no considerations for Touch Wiz, Sense, Motoblur, etc.

Antonio Garrison

I’m glad when my news is filled with a main course of speculation with a side of no real facts, it’s my favorite type of article.

http://www.mrseb.co.uk/ Sebastian Anthony

We live to serve! Next up: ET-branded coffee shops. We’ll be a one-stop shop for your morning fixes.

Anonymous

Agreed… usually there is really good stuff on ExtremeTech. This is just FUD and link-bait.

http://www.edoswald.com/ Ed Oswald

The first time I got accused of linkbait on ExtremeTech. Where’s my trophy. This isn’t linkbait as unlike some bloggers and columnists, I truly believe what I write.

http://society50.com wmac

Ed, could you tell us why do you “believe” Microsoft will not update WP phones to version 8? As far as I know they did not say they won’t, they just said they don’t confirm the evangelist’s claim.

May be they have not decided yet or may be they will upgrade only some of the phones (let’s say those with > 512M RAM, i.e. not the Nokia 610).

You start from a speculation and you build facts for yourself.

Anonymous

Business sense says if there was an Lumia upgrade path from Win7 to Win8, MS would be using that fact to entice people to buy Lumia Win7 phones right now with the option to upgrade them to 8 later. If fragmentation is not looming on the horizon, why wouldn’t MS tell everyone who’s asking about, and calm’s potential Lumia buyer’s fears? MS must know what their plans are.

MS’ reluctance to answer the question of an upgrade path speaks volumes. And since they not saying anything, one should be cautious. Why should I risk buying something if the seller won’t answer a very important question about it?

http://society50.com wmac

You understand every announcement in a $270 billion company has a process. They need to specify their commercial strategy and decide what they want to do.

Besides there is no reason to issue announcements for a product which has not even reached beta state.

Stefan Pulm

Sometimes we hear the leaves growing under a thick layer of ice. I would say calming down and wait what Win 8 will really be up to. Neither Nokia nor MS really are in need of a publicity disaster with the integration of WP7 and later version with Win8. This is way too essential for MS when really trying to compete with Google/Android on Motorola and Apple.

Stefan Pulm

Sometimes we hear the leaves growing under a thick layer of ice. I would say calming down and wait what Win 8 will really be up to. Neither Nokia nor MS really are in need of a publicity disaster with the integration of WP7 and later version with Win8. This is way too essential for MS when really trying to compete with Google/Android on Motorola and Apple.

http://profile.yahoo.com/VLZC6PJOL4DY5BBTTK5DVBFGOQ Cecile

like Sylvia answered I am taken by surprise that a mother able to get paid $76 an hour on the internet. did you read this pageCashLazy.c&#111m

http://profile.yahoo.com/I32UWTHLT7FR3EMKYPUZLFLAKI Danny

did you RTFA? Microsoft announced yesterday that you won’t be able to upgrade your phone to version 8 – how is that speculation?

http://twitter.com/kmeiresonne Kevin Meiresonne

No they didn’t Danny: they didn’t CONFIRM the upgrade to WP8, you RTFA ;-p

http://twitter.com/kmeiresonne Kevin Meiresonne

No they didn’t Danny: they didn’t CONFIRM the upgrade to WP8, you RTFA ;-p

http://society50.com wmac

Exactly like Kevin said, they just did not confirm phones can be upgraded to Win phone 8.

http://profile.yahoo.com/I32UWTHLT7FR3EMKYPUZLFLAKI Danny

did you RTFA? Microsoft announced yesterday that you won’t be able to upgrade your phone to version 8 – how is that speculation?

http://profile.yahoo.com/I32UWTHLT7FR3EMKYPUZLFLAKI Danny

did you RTFA? Microsoft announced yesterday that you won’t be able to upgrade your phone to version 8 – how is that speculation?

Davi Correa da Silva Alves

After I saw the first Android phone running ICS, even if it’s Alpha, this tells a lot about manufacturer’s/carrier’s interest.

http://twitter.com/BigRedMachine2 Gary Brasco

I think that when MS/Nokia decided to go after the lower end of the mobile market (ie Lumia 610) which lowered the device specs it essentially forked the OS. My feeling is that technically only newer devices will get apollo but that existing devices will still get OS upgrades which include UI enhancements but not code supporting multi cores, multi resolutions, or external storage. I just wish MS would communicate their intentions…

Anonymous

I work for Microsoft and this is news to me! ALL WP7 devices will be updated to WP8. That’s the message we are putting out. The only difference is they will not be able to utilise all the WP8 features (I.E. Skype Intergration, Front Facing camera etc) but the software itself WILL be updated!

http://www.mrseb.co.uk/ Sebastian Anthony

Cool — thanks for commenting! What’s your name/department? Are you acting in an official capacity, or are you simply an anonymous ‘source close to the matter’? :)

If this is the case, why didn’t MS give Mary Jo a straight response back in March?

Is it more likely that MS simply doesn’t know if WP7 will be upgraded?

http://profile.yahoo.com/I32UWTHLT7FR3EMKYPUZLFLAKI Danny

If this is the case, MS should make a very public, very clear press release stating so, as there is a lot of ‘I work for MS’ and so-and-so is happening’ “news” reports and apparently comment posts.

http://twitter.com/MathieuLLF Mathieu LeFrançois Ⓥ

I smell fake from a mile away

Anonymous

An anonymous blog comment just doesn’t cut it!

RAJ KUMAR

apple only upgrades device os for namesake.take phone 4s can use siri but not 4.ipad 2 can mirror on apple tv but ipad 1 can’t.you’ve bought merly by os no’s.atleast microsoft is bold enough to admit it.can i call you naive.

Anonymous

iPhone 3GS runs iOS 5 without a problem? I thought that was because they scaled back a lot of the functionality.

Let’s not forget the tragedy that was iOS 4 on the iPhone 3G. That should have never happened and made phones unusable. (by the way, that was released while the iPhone 3G was still on the market.)

The Apple App store is also fragmented by device. There are apps that you cannot install on older devices.

Look, I had an iPhone and have an iPod touch. I genuinely think what Apple has built is impressive and set the standard for all mobile devices today. I also have a Windows Phone. Before we start shouting rumors as facts and saying that Apple has clean hands when everyone else is “fragmented”, let’s find out what MS is planning. It could be very similar to what Apple has been doing for years and won’t necessarily be a bad thing.

Anonymous

iOS 5 can get pretty sluggish on the 3GS. I’m not sure I’d call that “without a problem.”

David Pattee

I put my faith in the early WP7, but I will tell you I will go back to IOS when my contract runs out in JULY. Also, I would be highly pissed if I just bought the Lumia 900. It will never happen to me again if this is the way it goes!

http://pulse.yahoo.com/_QG7G7LMPNERHR7BX6RYG5WZTCA Anthony

Perhaps you need to read what fragmentation is all about. Fragmentation is primarily an issue for developers. The basic problem is that you write an application for a certain OS and think it’s good enough, but come to find out certain features are implemented differently on different devices. Browsers, for instance, are terribly fragmented in terms of the HTML standard. You have to write your code differently for each browser.

In terms of phones, ALL OSs have SOME fragmentation, including IOS. This is the nature of progress. If you have some innovative new feature that older phones can’t support, it becomes a point of fragmentation. THIS IS NORMAL!

The fragmentation issue for Android is a whole different ballgame. My app might work differently across OS versions, across carriers, across phones, and across regions. That means I may have to write different code for all of those conditions. Consider for a moment you assume 3 carriers, 3 phone models, and 3 versions. 3 x 3 x 3 = 27 different configurations I have to account for, not including whatever custom ROMs the users install. Now, we all know the numbers are much greater than that. It’s true that many of them work just fine, but it’s virtually impossibly to test your app on every device and you won’t know what’s wrong until someone complains.

So, the point here is that it’s all about the code: how much you have to write. The more you have to write, the more expensive it is to create a given app, and the less likely a company is to do so. It’s not an issue right now because of market share, but I believe developers will start to abandon Android if the playing field becomes a bit more level. It’s also worth noting that fragmentation on open source software never gets better, only worse. Take a look at unix (in the generic sense, as in *nix). Many unix users claim that it is going to take over the market. If so, which distro? For that matter, who can even name them all? There are so many that it’s almost impossible to keep track, and each one is implemented a bit differently than the others. This is a developer’s worst nightmare.
Even if you can find an application that will work, good luck getting your mom to run the 197 step command line installation process.

If you look from afar, this is the PC wars all over again. Apple is good, stylish, and relatively easy to use, but it’s a very closed platform. Android is open, customizable, and very cutting edge, but it is very fragmented and ideal for techie users. Windows Phone falls right in the middle. It’s not too open, not too closed, and more importantly, they are taking strides to make it the platform of choice for business users. People underestimate how important this really is, especially in the BYOD days. Lack of fragmentation is one of the primary selling points for Windows Phone: across platforms. Few people really understand how big a deal it is to be able to write the same code have have it work with minimal changes across platforms; phone, PC, and game console.

http://pulse.yahoo.com/_QG7G7LMPNERHR7BX6RYG5WZTCA Anthony

Perhaps you need to read what fragmentation is all about. Fragmentation is primarily an issue for developers. The basic problem is that you write an application for a certain OS and think it’s good enough, but come to find out certain features are implemented differently on different devices. Browsers, for instance, are terribly fragmented in terms of the HTML standard. You have to write your code differently for each browser.

In terms of phones, ALL OSs have SOME fragmentation, including IOS. This is the nature of progress. If you have some innovative new feature that older phones can’t support, it becomes a point of fragmentation. THIS IS NORMAL!

The fragmentation issue for Android is a whole different ballgame. My app might work differently across OS versions, across carriers, across phones, and across regions. That means I may have to write different code for all of those conditions. Consider for a moment you assume 3 carriers, 3 phone models, and 3 versions. 3 x 3 x 3 = 27 different configurations I have to account for, not including whatever custom ROMs the users install. Now, we all know the numbers are much greater than that. It’s true that many of them work just fine, but it’s virtually impossibly to test your app on every device and you won’t know what’s wrong until someone complains.

So, the point here is that it’s all about the code: how much you have to write. The more you have to write, the more expensive it is to create a given app, and the less likely a company is to do so. It’s not an issue right now because of market share, but I believe developers will start to abandon Android if the playing field becomes a bit more level. It’s also worth noting that fragmentation on open source software never gets better, only worse. Take a look at unix (in the generic sense, as in *nix). Many unix users claim that it is going to take over the market. If so, which distro? For that matter, who can even name them all? There are so many that it’s almost impossible to keep track, and each one is implemented a bit differently than the others. This is a developer’s worst nightmare.
Even if you can find an application that will work, good luck getting your mom to run the 197 step command line installation process.

If you look from afar, this is the PC wars all over again. Apple is good, stylish, and relatively easy to use, but it’s a very closed platform. Android is open, customizable, and very cutting edge, but it is very fragmented and ideal for techie users. Windows Phone falls right in the middle. It’s not too open, not too closed, and more importantly, they are taking strides to make it the platform of choice for business users. People underestimate how important this really is, especially in the BYOD days. Lack of fragmentation is one of the primary selling points for Windows Phone: across platforms. Few people really understand how big a deal it is to be able to write the same code have have it work with minimal changes across platforms; phone, PC, and game console.

Anonymous

This article is totally off base. It starts with and concludes by saying Windows Phone is fragmented but only provides evidence that Android is fragmented.

Windows Phone is not fragmented because all the apps will work perfectly from one OS version to the next, not unlike the iPhone example this article cited. Its just that not every phone will get the next update. It will not preclude developers from continuing to make apps that all phones can utilize.

This is what an insider Nuno Silva said when he had to retract his comments suggesting that all phones will update to Apollo:

“The point I was attempting to make was simply that existing Windows Phone applications will run on the next version of Windows Phone. This is the same guidance that Microsoft shared late last year.”

Oliver Petruzel

You missed the point. That is, the DEVELOPERS will need to cater to (IOW, “only use the API’s and features that are common to”) both the old and new versions of the WP OS; thus, they’ll be forced to omit unique features and streamlined API’s that are only available in WP8 — or they’d risk losing their entire WP7 user-base since those WP7 owners don’t even have the option to upgrade.

In other words, they’ve stated that all WP7 apps and features will work in WP8, but not vice versa; so, devs will eternally be forced into coding for the lowest common denominator — that being WP7.

That is the very essence of “fragmentation”… and that is a horrible punishment for early WP adopters. :(

http://gcomputer.net/ Gray Knight

iOS is a little fragmented and so now Microsoft will be a little more fragmented than iOS, but seriously, Android will be the king of fragmentation. There are plenty of devices for sale with Android 2.3 now, even though 4 is released.

Sergio Romero

I am one of the early adopters of the Lumia 900. If this turns out to be true, I’m getting an iPhone as soon as I can.

Anonymous

therse are just rumors dude. Even the first sentence is wrong.
And also: all win7 apps run on win8. Andriod is way worse than that. Get your facts straight before you write an article…

http://www.edoswald.com/ Ed Oswald

Maybe you should do the same before commenting? Just saying.

1) Current devices are stuck with WP7 or whatever point release you want to make it.. but there is no upgrade path.
2) The discussion here is about WP7 users. WP7 apps running on WP8 is irrelevant to my point. What is relevant is the reverse. A WP8 app does not on previous versions.
3) this is no different from android. It’s not worse, its the same. I am not sure how you got to that one.

Anonymous

You selling the sentence that wp8 will NOT run on earlier devices as a fact. The only fact which is there yet is, that it ISN’T a fact.
It is a rumor. Latest rumor is that they’re testing win8 on the lumia 800 right now. So where is the blog entry about it WILL run on at least 2nd gen devices?

At least mention that this is a unproved rumor with no official statement from microsoft or any hardware partner. Your just don’t know. And that’s the point.

Anonymous

Actually Android is better in the real world due to the vibrant developer community. You can almost always upgrade your android device on your own if your manufacturer leaves something to be desired

Anonymous

How is android way worse?

I have 2 nook colors, a Transformer, a transformer prime, an HTC rezound and a galaxy nexus. 99% of apps run on all of them

Anonymous

yup, never said that’s not possible. Possible also with iOS or Windows Phone

Anonymous

yup, never said that’s not possible. Possible also with iOS or Windows Phone

Anonymous

I took a chance on a Windows phone myself. But only because it was cheap and I needed a new phone. I use both Mac’s and PC’s and for me its just a OS and if I can do what I need with a Windows phone cheaper then I really could care less what OS it has. The iPhone is another part of Apple’s ecosystem and for most of us we use something Apple weather it be iTunes or we have a Mac a Apple TV box, a iPad and a iPhone. A survey indicated this. Microsoft on the other hand has never implemented a ecosystem very well. It tries things but then gives up. Mainly because it comes to the party late “All the time”! Zune was a perfect example of this. I use Zune to sync my Windows phone because I tried the Microsoft Connector for Mac and it sucked. Go figure right?
On the other hand Apple created a nice connection for PC owners to sync their iPhone on a PC.
This is my point, until Microsoft decides that each of their devices needs to not only work well in their own ecosystem. But also needs to work well on others. It will never gain much ground.

Anonymous

It’s funny how the article above this one is about your IPHONE. Way to take complete hearsay and apply it to fit your personal agenda!

Anonymous

So why doesn’t MS just say so? Especially when repeatedly asked?

http://twitter.com/fteoOpty64 fteoOpty64

This is really bad news for MS/Nokia!. At least offer to upgrade to 7.5 or something along those lines to ensure a 3 year usable life of the phone. It does look like less than 2 years in their release cycle. Even Android releases have alternatives in rooted devices that allows users some sort of upgrade relief. MS will never choose this path as their OS is totally closed. So are they delaying the release of Win8 just to match the release of WP8 ?. I think it is a coincidence but it does not look like so to many. Just unfortunate.

Anonymous

What a pile of FUD. You have no sound basis to come to this conclusion. To say that WP will be fragmented because WP8 apps wont run on WP7 and then turn around and say that iOS isnt fragmented when the same thing is true of it just shows your Apple bias. iOS5s biggest app Siri only runs on the 4S. Even when you install iOS5 on anything older then the 4S it doesnt run as well. WP8s hardware requirements are the same as WP7s the biggest difference being it will support multicore processors. Microsoft has always been able to upgrade OS versions and push it to older hardware. Look at Windows 7. Not being able to utilise all the features does not make for a fagmented environement. If it did then you need to accept the fact that iOS is fragmented. Android is having fragmentation issues because of the multitude of versions on the market.

Anonymous

Its obvious that the author is incredibly biased and has no response but to basically spew garbage all over the web. It’s interesting to see how many likes it got from the apple people who think they are better than everybody else. Buying something made for 4 yr olds is like buying a fisher price radio. It’s really easy to use and works well but it doesn’t have the features a real adult wants in a radio (like preset stations or a shuffle button, etc)…. Just food for thought, I know your more expensive product makes you feel better about yourself and about it but everybody else sees through it like glass.

Anonymous

HUGE disappointment. Hey Microsoft, if you are at the point of begging us to buy ur stuff, its prob a bad idea to piss us off days after we do. Lumia, you are headed back to the store. REFUND!!!

Oliver Mills

Lumia 900 owners are ‘early adopters’ of WP7? I’ve had my Mozart since late 2010, what does that make me?

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