Tuesday, June 4, 2013

“For all of you who were bored
with the governor’s race, I have solved your problems.” – Gov. Chris Christie

New Jersey’s U.S. Senate
campaign is on! Every one of the alternatives
Chris Christie considered to fill the vacancy posed a different set of risks
and benefits. True to his reputation as an
astute strategist, he chose the option that maximized his own future political
prospects.

Certainly, there will be
fallout from this decision. National Republicans
are irked that they are not guaranteed a party vote in the Senate for the next 17
months. They are joined by state GOP
leaders in being annoyed that a Republican appointee won’t have time to raise
visibility and money for an incumbent campaign in 2014.

Republicans wanted Christie to
hold out for the 2014 option. But that
choice posed a serious risk. It would
most certainly have gone to the New Jersey Supreme Court. The court could not only have determined that
the Senate election needed to be held this year but also directed that it be held
on the same day as the regular general election.

Despite his denials, Gov.
Christie does not want to run on a ballot where the U.S. Senate race is at the top
of the ticket. Otherwise he could have saved
the state an estimated $12 million and held the special election concurrently with
the general election, rather than three weeks earlier on Oct. 16.

A Senate race on the same
ballot would have certainly increased Democratic turnout – whether the nominee
is Cory Booker or Frank Pallone – both of whom are running – or even Rush Holt
or Bill Pascrell – who are considering a run.
Voters, especially Democrats, are more likely to turn out for
competitive races. This would almost
certainly put any of the supposed five or six competitive legislative races out
of Republicans’ reach.

Christie himself is unlikely to
lose in this scenario, but he would suffer a significant loss to his presidential
prospects. His main campaign strategy has
always been to stand on the stage with a half dozen more conservative
Republicans seeking their party’s presidential nomination and announce: “Our
main priority should be to back the White House. Anyone on this stage who has won a blue state
by 20 points, raise your hand!”

Winning by a 10 or 12 point
margin or even – gasp – by the high single digits would be a major setback to
Christie’s 2016 strategy.

At the end of the day, a quick
special election was the one option where Christie knew he could maintain
control over the process. The
conflicting state statutes on Congressional vacancies agree that the governor
has this authority.

So yes, some GOP leaders and
conservatives are annoyed at him right now.
But Christie’s banking this will blow over by the time the presidential
process begins. Moreover, holding a special election shortly before the regularly
scheduled general election may actually boost Christie’s victory margin.

Turnout in this special election
will be very low – 35% of registered voters is my rough guess. As a consequence, there are some voters who will
only take part in one election, pushing turnout in the November general
election down to about 50%. It usually approaches
60% during gubernatorial years.

This turnout fatigue will
affect partisans of both stripes.
However, it’s much more likely to affect Democratic voters than Republicans. Many Democrats will show up for a Senate race
that looks positive for their party and sit out the subsequent general election
where their party’s candidate is likely to lose.

This special election has an
added benefit for the state GOP. It is now more likely that they could pick off
some Democratic incumbents in the state legislature. Among all the possible alternatives, Christie’s
decision to hold the special election in October was absolutely the worst
possible outcome for New Jersey Democrats.

Yes, the Democrats will almost
certainly win the U.S. Senate seat. It’s
unlikely that the Republican nominee will be able to raise the kind of cash
that Booker or even Pallone can.
Moreover, Christie is unlikely to free up his GOTV resources to do
double duty for the senate race.

Democratic power brokers won’t
pour money into the senate race either.
They really care about state and local races. That’s where their bread is buttered. This special election poses a real threat to
their control of at least one chamber of the legislature. In other words, Minority Leader Tom Kean Jr.’s
supposed pipe dream of taking control of the State Senate now seems much more
realistic.