Forget Polls: Here Are the Real Election Predictors

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Buycostumes.com said purchases of the Barack Obama mask outnumbered those of the McCain mask 55 percent to 45 percent nationwide.

Updated at 8:40 PM EDT on Tuesday, Nov 4, 2008

Presidential election polls have been consistently predicting a Barack Obama victory Tuesday. To get a different perspective, CNBC took the unconventional route and looked at some less-traditional election indicators.

The 7-Eleven Indicator

In the past two presidential elections, convenient store 7-Eleven has offered red George Bush cups and blue Al Gore (’00) and John Kerry (’04) cups to its patrons. Customers chose the red cups more often than the blue cups in both 2000 and 2004, correctly predicting a George Bush victory.

This year, however, the blue Barack Obama cups are outnumbering the red John McCain cups 60 percent to 40 percent nationwide.

In the battleground state of Pennsylvania, Obama has an even wider lead of 62 percent to 38 percent.

Halloween Mask Indicator

BuyCostumes.com has been selling 99-cent political masks during the past two elections. In both 2000 and 2004, the George Bush mask was the more popular choice, correctly predicting a Bush win both years.

This year, however, purchases of the Barack Obama mask outnumbered purchases of the McCain mask 55 percent to 45 percent nationwide.

In the battleground state of Pennsylvania, the Obama mask outnumbered the McCain mask 63 percent to 37 percent.

The Redskins Rule

The Washington Redskins lost on Monday.In an ordinary year, this would not be considered a national issue, but an election year is no ordinary year. The Redskins Rule says whatever the football team does in the final game before the presidential election, that will dictate what will happen to the incumbent party.

If the Redskins win, the rule says the incumbent party will stay in the White House, but if the Redskins lose, the opposing party will be victorious. Thus, Monday’s Redskins loss is bad news for Republican John McCain and good news for Democratic Barack Obama.