On February 14, President Vladimir Putin said at his final annual press
conference of his second term in office that he does not want a return
to the Cold War, kremlin.ru reported (see "RFE/RL Newsline," February
14, 2008). He nonetheless criticized the United States in sharp terms
several times. He said that "we know how our American partners behave
in Europe. They force some countries not to take our raw materials.
They try to find new routes for delivery of energy resources that
bypass Russian territory and correspondingly put pressure on [various]
countries. All this belongs to the realm of politics. I think this is
an incorrect and stupid policy, not to mention that it is
unprofessional." He denied that Russia is behaving badly toward Poland,
saying that "we are not acting aggressively toward Poland.... We
provide Poland with all of the energy resources it needs, without any
limitations, without any cutoffs...and we do not plan to cut anything
off in the future." Putin said he does not want to "lecture" unnamed
Central Asian presidents about what a questioner called "leaving office
in a dignified way." He added that he "never lectures anyone, nor, in
fact, would I stand for anyone lecturing me.... As regards the
organization of government in other countries, that is a sovereign
matter for the citizens of those countries. And please do not expect me
to lecture my counterparts in other states." The daily "Moskovsky
komsomolets" commented on February 15 that "Putin even recalled
Warsaw's objections to the forthcoming construction of the Nord Stream
gas pipeline under the Baltic Sea. 'What if we are trying to diversify
our energy export routes?' Putin asked. Bearing in mind how obsessed
Europe is with 'energy diversification,' Putin certainly made his
point." The nationalist "RBK Daily" noted on February 15 that Putin
"confirmed the assumption that foreign policy will remain more or less
unchanged [after he leaves the presidency in March]. By and large, the
president's biting definitions and remarks reflected his statements
from the previous year. Putin's arguments are difficult to refute. His
policy statement made in Munich last [February] is backed by the
majority in Russia." PM

President Putin said on February 14 that there is no need for Russia to
spend large sums of money to "intensify" the building of warships,
kremlin.ru reported. He argued that "the best is the enemy of the good.
We should provide sustainable and regular funding. Everything must be
done on schedule." He confirmed that Russia will continue to build
"strategic missile cruisers," but called for unspecified "certain
improvements [in Russian naval plans], including the construction of
more submarines and warships, alongside other means of naval warfare."
On February 13, independent military analyst Aleksandr Khramchikhin of
the Institute for Military and Political Analysis wrote in
"Nezavisimaya gazeta" that "in 1992-99, the Russian Navy took delivery
of around 50 warships and patrol boats, the construction of which began
before the collapse of the USSR. They included 14 nuclear-powered
submarines and the 'Peter the Great,' a guided-missile cruiser. By
contrast, the navy has received only one vessel built after 2000: a
Project 21630 Astrakhan small artillery ship." Khramchikhin concluded
in his article that "if current trends persist over the next eight to
10 years, the Russian Federation's conventional forces will shrink to
the size of the armed forces of an average European country. This would
not be sufficient to maintain the Russian Federation's defense
capability, especially if the Strategic Nuclear Forces deteriorate at
the same time" (see "RFE/RL Newsline," November 14, 2007). PM

Officials of Germany's Lufthansa Airlines, which owns Lufthansa Cargo,
announced in Berlin on February 13 that Russia has extended permission
until the end of March for the carrier to fly through Russian airspace
to its hub in Kazakhstan, news agencies reported. Last fall, Russia
temporarily withdrew overflight rights in an apparent attempt to force
Lufthansa Cargo to move its Asian hub from Astana to Krasnoyarsk (see
"RFE/RL Newsline," October 31 and November 1, 2, 5, and 9, 2007).
Lufthansa is negotiating with Russia for a long-term arrangement. Its
current provisional agreement was set to run out at the end of
February. The latest extension was made while talks are continuing. The
German airline regards the Russian approach as somewhat ham-fisted and
argues that Krasnoyarsk lacks the infrastructure and safety features
that Astana has. PM

Speaking to the Krasnoyarsk Economic Forum on February 15, First Deputy
Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev put forward four basic directions and
seven tasks that he said Russia must focus on over the next four years.
"We must concentrate on four distinctive 'I's' -- institutions,
infrastructure, innovations, investments," Interfax quoted him as
saying. The seven tasks that must be carried out, Medvedev said, are
overcoming "legal nihilism," a radical lowering of administrative
barriers, a lowering of the tax burden, turning the ruble into one of
the regional reserve currencies, modernizing transportation and energy
infrastructure, creating the basis for a "national innovation system"
and achieving a program for the country's social development. Medvedev
said that a key priority in the coming years will be to guarantee the
independence of the judicial system from other branches of power, as
well as "fairness and equal accessibility to justice for everyone." He
added: "We must extirpate the practice of unjust verdicts 'by [means
of] a [telephone] call' or 'for money.' This demands resolve and
responsibility -- above all, on the part of judicial society itself."
Medvedev called for a system of measures aimed at compensating citizens
and organizations for losses resulting from unjust verdicts and red
tape in the courts, adding that a special financial fund should be set
up to provide such compensation. He also said it is necessary to
further humanize the administration of justice, "above all through the
softening of preventive punishment prior to the passing of sentences"
and "improving the living conditions for convicts in institutions of
confinement." JB

Stating that "legal nihilism" is sometimes the result of "low-quality
laws," Medvedev told the Krasnoyarsk Economic Forum that the situation
in law enforcement must be changed radically. "It is necessary to start
with bureaucrats and policemen, judges and prosecutors, businessmen --
all of us," Interfax quoted him as saying. "Then the citizens will feel
like the masters of their own country. They will always be able to
protect their honor and dignity, freedom, and security. And they will
know that the state is protecting their families, their homes [and]
their businesses from arbitrariness." The principle that freedom is
better than non-freedom must be the basis of state policy, he said, and
quoted the words of Catherine the Great: "Freedom -- the soul of
everything; without thee everything is dead! I desire to have obedience
to law, but not slaves to law." Medvedev also called for ensuring real
independence for mass media. "Accessibility to justice, the possibility
of standing up for one's rights and enjoying freedoms, [and] success in
the fight against corruption are inseparable from the right of citizens
to receive reliable information," he said. "We need to protect the real
independence of mass media, providing feedback between society as a
whole and the power bodies." JB

Medvedev called for replacing as many permission procedures as possible
with notification procedures and said it would be advisable to do away
with the practice of government officials sitting on the board of
directors of companies, Interfax reported. According to Reuters, he
said that state officials "should be replaced by truly independent
directors, which the state would hire to implement its plans."
(Medvedev himself has sat on the board of Gazprom since 2000 -- serving
for most of that period as board chairman of the energy giant -- and
also holding for most of that period high government posts, including
Kremlin administration chief and first deputy prime minister.)
"Officials must in full measure realize that society is their employer
and that they have responsibility before all Russian citizens,"
Interfax quoted him as saying. Medvedev said that all administrative
procedures should be consolidated in the regulations governing the
state power bodies and become maximally convenient for people. This, he
added, should be done not in order to "bring forth simply more
bureaucratic documents, but so that citizens know the duties of
specific officials [and] have the real possibility to appeal against
unlawful actions or negligence." Medvedev also called for transferring
a significant part of the functions from the state to the nonstate
sector and for shrinking the state apparatus. He called corruption "the
most serious disease affecting our society" and said it is necessary to
"do real battle" with it. JB

Medvedev said that the state should collect only the taxes it needs in
order to function and that a series of changes need to be made in the
near future -- in particular, the passage of a law determining the
period of transition to a single reduced value-added tax rate. He also
said that replacing the value-added tax with a sales tax should be
considered. In the area of foreign trade, he said that while the
Russian economy's "openness" is unquestionably a good thing, it also
comes with risks, including the rise in food prices and drop in share
prices that Russians have experienced over the last year. "These
illnesses came to us mainly from abroad," he said. "The recent events,
the...revolution in the financial world has presented us with the
challenge of building a self-dependent powerful yet open financial
system." He also called for reducing duties on energy exports to allow
oil firms to invest in new facilities, and said energy exporters should
in turn pledge to switch to the ruble in their dealings in order to
help it become one of the world's top currencies. "Today the global
economy is going through uneasy times," Reuters quoted him as saying.
"People are reviewing the roles of key reserve currencies. And we must
take advantage of it... The ruble will de facto become one of the
regional reserve currencies." JB

Vladimir Putin's final annual press conference as president on February
14 lasted a record four hours and 40 minutes, during which time he
answered 100 questions from 78 journalists, newsru.com reported. In
addition to declaring his eight years in office successful, praising
his chosen successor First Deputy Prime Minister Medvedev, saying he
had no immediate plans to head the Unified Russia party, reiterating
Russia's development goals and calling opposition criticism
"unconstructive" (see "RFE/RL Newsline," February 14, 2008), Putin,
when asked which problem bothered him most all because it had not been
resolved, replied immediately, "Corruption." Responding to another
question, he said that legal and even repressive measures will help in
the fight against corruption. "An anticorruption law will be passed,"
he said. "There are no pills against corruption; there must be a large
legal system of measures and the strengthening of repressive measures,
[and] the fulfillment of European conventions. Corruption always
accompanies a developing market; a merging of oligarchic structures
with the bureaucratic apparatus goes on." Putin said he hopes he can
raise the percentage of Russians in the middle class to 60-70 percent
by 2020. He also said that if he becomes prime minister, he will not
hang a portrait of President Medvedev in his office. "As for my
relations with Dmitry Anatolevich [Medvedev], you would agree that if I
will be chairman of the government, there is a certain uniqueness in
this, which lies in the fact that I was myself president for eight
years and worked on the whole not badly," he said. "For me to build
relations with Dmitry Anatolevich Medvedev, if he is elected president,
will not require hanging his portrait." JB

"RBK Daily" on February 15 quoted Political Technologies Center Deputy
Director Aleksei Makarkin as saying that Putin's February 8 speech to
the State Council (see "RFE/RL Newsline," February 11, 2008) and his
February 14 press conference "absolutely obviously demonstrate that
Putin will keep for himself a monopoly on making strategic decisions."
The paper said this state of affairs will be "reinforced by informal
agreements on the distribution of powers between Putin and Medvedev."
It also quoted Konstantin Simonov, president of the Center for Current
Politics, as saying that while the government will formally become the
center for economic decision making and the Kremlin will formally be
the center for political decision making, in reality the status of the
Russian White House (where the prime minister has his offices) will be
higher than that of the Kremlin. "The internal political life of Russia
has been adjusted, the vertical of power has been completed, and it is
the economic and social problems that really interest people," Simonov
said. He predicted that two departments will face radical personnel
changes. "The economic part of the [presidential] administration's
experts will move to the government apparatus; representatives of the
power camp -- deputy [Kremlin] administration chief Igor Sechin, Putin
aide Viktor Ivanov -- will leave on the heels of Putin," Simonov
predicted. JB

Ingushetian Deputy Interior Minister Vadim Selivanov confirmed on
February 14 that Maksharip Aushev, one of the organizers of the
abortive January 26 mass meeting in Nazran, was detained earlier that
day and taken, together with his brother-in-law Magomed Yevloyev, who
was taken into custody on February 13, to Nalchik in
Kabardino-Balkaria, where the two are being held, kavkaz-uzel.ru
reported (see "RFE/RL Newsline," January 28 and February 14, 2008). At
his February 14 press conference in Moscow, President Putin argued that
efforts to destabilize Ingushetia under the pretext of expressing
support for his policies show that both the republican and the federal
authorities need to work more effectively to resolve the population's
social problems, Interfax reported. One of the opposition's primary
criticisms of Ingushetian President Murat Zyazikov is that for years he
has systematically lied to Putin, claiming the construction of numerous
nonexistent apartment blocks and the creation of nonexistent new jobs;
unemployment is estimated at 67 percent of the able-bodied population.
Putin also said that the repatriation of Ingush displaced persons --
meaning those who fled neighboring North Ossetia's disputed Prigorodny
Raion in late 1992 -- requires overcoming the hostility of those
persons (the Ossetians) living in the districts to which the Ingush
want to return. LF

The Armenian Revolutionary Federation-Dashnaktsutiun (HHD), which is
fielding its own candidate in the February 19 presidential ballot even
though it is an associate member of the current coalition government,
issued a statement in Yerevan on February 13 expressing concern that
the preelection struggle "has exceeded the bounds of civilized
behavior," Noyan Tapan reported on February 14. "The atmosphere of
intolerance sowed in society, the violation of elementary norms of
political struggle, the personal offences addressed to each other by
the rival candidates and their team fellows, the...threats of
reprisals, as well as the sowing of enmity and mutual hatred in
society, have reached a very dangerous level," the statement continued.
It further called on all forces to observe the norms of political
ethics, and affirmed that the only way out of the current tense
situation is the holding of truly free, fair, and transparent
elections. On February 14, the OSCE Election Observation Mission
released its second interim report on the election campaign, RFE/RL's
Armenian Service reported. That report noted that Prime Minister Serzh
Sarkisian's election campaign draws so heavily on government resources
that it is difficult to differentiate between Sarkisian's campaign
activities and the work of local government bodies, given that some
town and villages mayors are "actively campaigning" on Sarkisian's
behalf. The report further registered indications that local government
employees, including in the northern town of Vanadzor, are being
pressured to attend Sarkisian's election campaign rallies. LF

Georgia's ruling United National Movement unveiled on February 14 its
draft proposals for "normalizing relations between political forces,
restoring confidence, and bringing political processes into a civilized
framework," civil.ge reported. Those proposals address the issues
raised late last month by the nine-party opposition National Council in
a 17-point memorandum addressed to parliament speaker Nino Burjanadze
(see "RFE/RL Newsline," January 30, 2008). The National Movement
document stipulates that persons detained during the November 7 clashes
in Tbilisi between police and protesters will be released within one
week, but rejects the release of dozens of other prisoners; it agrees
to the creation of a commission to probe the November 7 police
intervention, but only after the parliamentary elections that it said
will take place between May 14-24; that commission will also probe the
opposition's imputed collaboration with Russian intelligence in a bid
to overthrow the Georgian leadership. It agrees to the creation of a
new board of trustees of Georgian Public Television, on which the
opposition will be represented; that board will then appoint a new
director general; the opposition demands the immediate dismissal of the
present director general. It further proposes creating a special
council of between four and six members that will address
election-related complaints. It contains no mention of the opposition
demand for the dismissal of controversial Interior Minister Vano
Merabishvili. LF

National Council representatives immediately denounced the National
Movement's draft proposals as "shameful," "shocking, "cynical," and "a
mockery," and announced the suspension of ongoing talks with
Burjanadze, civil.ge reported on February 14. Parliamentarian Zviad
Dzidziguri (Conservative party) said the authorities "are testing us.
They want to see whether people will turn out" at the protest rally
scheduled for February 15. A second Conservative party member, Kakha
Kukava, said the authorities' response shows that "the only way to
achieve really free and fair parliamentary elections is street protest
rallies, and these rallies will continue until our demands are met."
New Rightists leader and defeated presidential candidate David
Gamkrelidze said on February 14 that his party will no longer
participate in talks with the authorities, and he called for the
creation of a united opposition front that would include the National
Council, together with the Labor Party, Industry Will Save Georgia, and
the new Christian Democratic party established by Giorgi Targamadze,
the former anchor at the independent Imedi television channel, civil.ge
reported on February 15. Speaking late on February 14 on the
pro-government Rustavi-2 television channel, Burjanadze defended the
National Movement proposals and said she hopes the dialogue with the
opposition will resume after the February 15 protest rally in Tbilisi,
according to civil.ge on February 15. LF

Georgia has reached a tentative agreement with Russia over opening
joint customs posts on the border between the two countries, including
in the unrecognized republics of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, Georgian
President Mikheil Saakashvili announced on February 14, according to
civil.ge. Georgia has for the past two years pegged its endorsement of
Russia's bid for World Trade Organization (WTO) membership to the
adoption of measures to legalize and ensure the normal functioning of
two border crossing and customs posts on Russia's border with the two
unrecognized republics (see "RFE/RL Newsline," November 28, 2005,
February 22, 2006, and January 19, June 26, September 10, and October
22, 2007). Saakashvili also said a tentative agreement has been reached
on resuming direct flights between Russia and Georgia. Those flights
were suspended in 2006. LF

Sergei Shamba, foreign minister of the unrecognized republic of
Abkhazia, met in Moscow on February 14 with Russian Deputy Foreign
Minister Grigory Karasin to discuss future steps in response to the
anticipated declaration of independence by Kosova and its recognition
by the international community, according to a statement posted on the
Russian Foreign Ministry website (mid.ru). The statement said
international recognition of Kosova would constitute an approach to the
resolution of regional conflicts that is based on double standards, and
which is therefore unacceptable to Russia. The two men also discussed
the upcoming annual meeting in Geneva of the so-called Friends of the
UN Secretary General for Abkhazia group of countries with UN Deputy
Secretary General for peacekeeping operations Jean-Marie Guehenno,
which Shamba will attend. On February 13, Shamba was quoted by
kavkaz-uzel.ru as saying he will make clear at the Geneva meeting that
the sole document Abkhazia is prepared to take as a basis for
discussions of its future relations with Georgia is the "Key to the
Future" put forward two years ago by Abkhaz President Sergei Bagapsh.
That initiative envisages: an official Georgian apology to Abkhazia for
its "state policy of assimilation, war, and isolation"; an end to
Georgian political and economic pressure on Abkhazia, and to the
blockade imposed by the CIS in 1996; the signing of a peace treaty
guaranteeing security in the air, on the ground, and on the Black Sea;
guarantees by the international community and the UN Security Council
to preclude the resumption of hostilities between Georgia and Abkhazia;
consultations between Bagapsh and Georgian President Saakashvili on
peaceful coexistence; cooperation in the fight against organized crime;
broad regional cooperation, including Abkhaz participation in
multilateral cooperation within the parameters of the Black Sea
Economic Cooperation Organization and the EU's European Neighborhood
Policy (see "RFE/RL Caucasus Report," May 12, 2006). LF

The upper house of the Kazakh parliament voted on February 14 to adopt
a new mandatory prison sentence for drug-related crimes, according to
Interfax-Kazakhstan. The new law imposes mandatory life imprisonment
for those convicted of "drug-related crimes" involving the sale of
drugs at "schools, educational establishments, the sale of drugs to
minors, and the sale of drugs in especially large amounts by organized
criminal groups," and for "smuggling drugs in especially large
amounts." RG

[17] U.S. AMBASSADOR APPEALS FOR OPPOSITION REPRESENTATION IN KAZAKH
PARLIAMENT

In a televised address, U.S. Ambassador to Kazakhstan John Ordway
called on February 13 for opposition representation in the parliament,
noting that a "one-party system" is not appropriate for the development
of full democracy in Kazakhstan, according to Kazakh Television. Ordway
added that Kazakhstan "needs to focus on including members of various
political parties in parliament as much as possible, so that other
political players can contribute to solving key issues." RG

The chief of staff of the Kazakh armed forces, Colonel General Mukhtar
Altynbaev, told reporters in Astana on February 14 that Defense
Minister Daniyal Akhmetov has negotiated with Russian officials in
Moscow an agreement to buy an advanced Russian-made air-defense missile
system, according to Interfax-Kazakhstan. According to Altynbaev,
Akhmetov is interested in procuring the S-300 PMU-2 Favorite and S-400
Triumph air-defense missile systems. He did not release any details on
the quantity or the price of the weapon systems, however. On an
official visit to Moscow, Akhmetov met on February 13 with his Russian
counterpart, Anatoly Serdyukov, and with Anatoly Isaikin, the
director-general of Russia's Rosoboroneksport state arms exporter, to
open talks on the purchase of Russian weapons systems over the next two
years (see "RFE/RL Newsline," February 14, 2008). RG

Addressing a cabinet meeting in Astana, President Nursultan Nazarbaev
on February 14 strongly criticized the performance of several regional
governors and senior police officials, Kazakhstan Today reported. He
rebuked the governors for budgetary mismanagement, adding that "workers
at budget-funded establishments and organizations do not receive their
salaries on time" and stressing that the reason is "not because there
is no money, but due to" incompetence among local and regional
officials. Nazarbaev warned of the "need to deal with this
immediately," and ordered the regional governors to pay "special
attention" to problems of regional poverty, unemployment, and
corruption. Turning to a review of law enforcement bodies, Nazarbaev
stressed that "the government needs to raise the efficiency of the law
enforcement agencies" and noted his "dissatisfaction with the current
activities of the law enforcement agencies," Interfax-Kazakhstan
reported. He further pointed to problems with a police crackdown on
illegal gambling enterprises, saying that police have failed to respond
to the fact that "following the decision to close down casinos, many
hidden casinos have appeared in towns." At the conclusion of the
cabinet meeting, Nazarbaev announced the appointment of several new
officials, including presidential adviser Onalsyn Zhumabekov as the new
chairman of the Supreme Judicial Council and Aset Isekeshev as a new
presidential aide. RG

The Kyrgyz parliament voted on February 14 to approve Tursunbek Akun as
the new ombudsman, AKIpress and the 24.kg website reported. Deputies
chose Akun, the former chairman of the presidential Human Rights
Commission, over four other candidates, including civil-society
activists Kanybek Abdykadyrov and Bubaysha Artsanbelova, journalist
Salima Sharipova, and incumbent Tursunbek Bakir-uulu. The vote comes as
a defeat for the opposition Erk party, which endorsed Bakir-uulu as
their candidate for the post (see "RFE/RL Newsline," January 24, 2008).
The parliament also approved President Kurmanbek Bakiev's nominee
Svetlana Sydykova as the new chairwoman of the Constitutional Court.
Bakiev initially nominated Sydykova for the post on February 6. She
previously served one term as a Constitutional Court judge after
securing parliamentary approval in April 2007 (see "RFE/RL Newsline,"
April 20, 2007). RG

Syarhey Kastsyan, deputy chairman of the Foreign Affairs Committee in
the lower chamber of the Belarusian legislature, told RFE/RL's Belarus
Service on February 14 that Belarus and Russia envisage the integration
of the two states in different ways. Kastsyan was commenting on the
recent announcement by Russian President Vladimir Putin that the
building of the union state between Russia and Belarus remains a
priority of Russian foreign policy. "We are ready to go as far as it is
desired by our Belarusian partners," Putin told the press conference.
Putin said that the integration should be conducted first of all in the
economic area, and he suggested that "the transition to the Russian
ruble as a single currency" would bring benefits to Belarus's economy.
Kastsyan said that it was Belarusian President Alyaksandr Lukashenka
who five years ago said that Belarus is ready to move toward building
the union state as far as can be done by the Russian leadership. "By
saying this, we had in mind other things than the Russian leadership
has," Kastsyan said. "They put forward conditions and tell Belarus to
join Russia on the status of an autonomous republic or a province. We
understand this [issue] in a different way." AM

A Belarusian plane carrying 18 passengers and three crew members
crashed on takeoff in Yerevan on February 14, Belarusian media
reported. Everyone on board survived the crash, but eight of them were
hospitalized with burns. Representatives of the Belarusian national
airline Belavia, the owner of the plane, and the Belarusian Transport
Ministry intend to join the team investigating the cause of the crash.
The February 14 crash is the first such accident during a passenger
flight since Belarus proclaimed independence. AM

A Homel district court on February 14 told the mother of Zmitser
Zhaleznichenka, a member of the opposition Belarusian Popular Front who
was hastily drafted into the army after being expelled from university,
that it has reversed its previous ruling to suspend Zhaleznichenka's
military service, RFE/RL's Belarus Service reported. The court said
that it reversed the ruling due to the discovery of new circumstances,
but did not provide further details. Zhaleznichenka, who had an
excellent academic record at Homel State University, has been expelled
from the university twice over violations of the university's internal
regulations. The first time, Zhaleznichenka appealed against his
expulsion and won. After the second expulsion, he was hastily drafted
into the army. Zhaleznichenka's mother appealed against the decision of
the recruitment board and the court initially suspended
Zhaleznichenka's military service, but the military unit where
Zhaleznichenka is deployed has not implemented the court's decision. AM

Ukrainian Foreign Minister Volodymyr Ohryzko said on February 14 that
there is not and there will not be a threat to Russia from within
Ukrainian territory, RFE/RL's Ukrainian Service reported. Ohryzko was
responding to a recent statement by Russian President Vladimir Putin,
who said that Russia will be forced to target Ukraine with missiles if
Ukraine joins NATO or the U.S. missile-defense program (see "RFE/RL
Newsline," February 13, 2008). "The Ukrainian Constitution does not
provide for the deployment of foreign military bases on Ukraine's
territory at any time," Ohryzko said. "Ukraine on its initiative alone
gave up nuclear weapons that had the third-largest potential in the
world," he added. "No, Ukraine in NATO does not pose a threat to
Russia." In mid-January, Ukrainian President Viktor Yushchenko, Prime
Minister Yulia Tymoshenko, and parliament speaker Arseniy Yatsenyuk
signed a request to NATO Secretary-General Jaap de Hoop Scheffer for
Ukraine to be given a NATO Membership Action Plan at the alliance's
summit in Bucharest in April. Meanwhile, the opposition Party of
Regions, which for several consecutive weeks has deadlocked the
parliament to protest possible NATO membership, has announced it will
ask NATO's leadership to withdraw from the summit's agenda Ukraine's
request. Anna Herman of the Party of Regions has said that party leader
Viktor Yanukovych has signed the appropriate letter and representatives
of the party intend to deliver it to NATO headquarters in Brussels at
the end of February. AM

[25] UKRAINIAN DEFENSE MINISTER REVEALS PLANS FOR SWITCHING TO
PROFESSIONAL ARMY

Defense Minister Yuriy Yekhanurov said on February 14 that transforming
Ukraine's armed forces into a fully professional army will cost 49.5
billion hryvnyas ($9.8 billion), RFE/RL's Ukrainian Service reported.
Yekhanurov said that the first stage of the transition, which will be
conducted this year -- "assembling the contractual army" -- requires
over 11 billion hryvnyas. According to Yekhanurov, the Ukrainian Army
currently has 200,000 troops, but this number will be reduced to
191,000 by the end of the year. After the switch to a fully
professional army, it will comprise 143,000 troops. President
Yushchenko last year issued a decree ordering the government to make
the armed forces fully professional by the end of 2009, but the Defense
Ministry later announced that the last military draft will be held in
2010. AM

Ljubisa Georgievski, who is the speaker of the Macedonian parliament,
said in Ljubljana on February 14 that his country will take the same
course of action as the EU if Kosova declares independence, RFE/RL's
South Slavic and Albanian Languages Service reported. In Moscow,
Vladimir Putin said on February 14 at his last annual press conference
as president that independence for Kosova would be "immoral and
illegal," kremlin.ru reported. He added that the EU should be "ashamed"
for supporting independence for Kosova while denying it to northern
Cyprus for nearly 40 years. In Banja Luka, Bosnian Serb Prime Minister
Milorad Dodik said on February 14 that a declaration of independence by
Kosova will not lead to unrest in the Bosnian Serb entity, adding that
any disturbance of the peace there would be "counterproductive,"
RFE/RL's South Slavic and Albanian Languages Service reported. As
expected, the Serbian government adopted a measure on February 14 to
"annul" any declaration of independence in Prishtina, RFE/RL's South
Slavic and Albanian Languages Service reported (see "RFE/RL Newsline,"
February 14, 2008, and "RFE/RL Balkan Report," February 13, 2008). In
Prishtina, Kosovar Justice Minister Nekibe Kelmendi called the measure
"nonsense" and intended for Serbian domestic consumption. The Belgrade
daily "Glas javnosti" on February 14 quoted Serbian Prime Minister
Vojislav Kostunica as saying that "there would be no greater
humiliation for Serbia if it, in any way, signed or agreed in some
indirect way to this puppet state" of an independent Kosova. President
Boris Tadic, who is slated to be inaugurated for his second term on
February 15, said on February 14 that "a European future for Serbia has
no alternative, but neither is there an alternative to the defense of
territorial integrity," news agencies reported. Tadic previously ruled
out any military "solution" to the Kosova question. Serbian Foreign
Minister Vuk Jeremic said in New York on February 14 that the
government adopted a program of measures it will take in response to
Kosova's declaration of independence and with regard to countries that
recognize the new state. He said that those measures are a "state
secret." Serbian Radical Party leader and defeated presidential
candidate Tomislav Nikolic said in Belgrade on February 14 that Tadic
and Kostunica should announce a major protest rally of 1 million Serbs
in the capital for the coming week. PM

Serbian Foreign Minister Jeremic said at a special closed-door session
of the UN Security Council on February 14 that "Serbia is going to use
all political, all diplomatic, and all economic measures [against
Kosovar independence]...and spread them over time in order to [first]
of all impede and then ultimately reverse this illegitimate act of
secession," RFE/RL's South Slavic and Albanian Languages Service
reported. He nonetheless added that Serbia is prepared "to die" for
Kosova. He stressed that a declaration of independence by Kosova will
lead to numerous similar moves by unspecified territories around the
globe. Russian Ambassador to the UN Vitaly Churkin said that "we have
some members of the [UN Security] Council who are pursuing a certain
policy vis-?-vis Kosovo, it is the United States and some members of
the European Union. In the Security Council, among other members of the
Security Council, they do not have any support at all." He argued that
most members want an unspecified "negotiated solution." But U.S. Deputy
Ambassador to the UN Alejandro Wolff said that the "U.S. position on
this is clear.... We believe...supervised independence is the
appropriate way to proceed to ensure the well being [and] future of all
Kosovars and Serbs, and to see both, Kosovo and Serbia, on the path to
Euro-Atlantic institutions." Wolff argued that "the Kosovo situation is
unique. It has its history, and we can't forget or ignore that history.
And it's the consequences of the ethnic-cleansing policies of [the late
Serbian leader] Slobodan Milosevic and his government which ensured
that Kosovo would never again be ruled from Belgrade." PM

In an article published in Britain's "Financial Times" on February 13,
British diplomat Paddy Ashdown wrote that unless renewed efforts are
made to win over moderate members of the Taliban, defeat is a "real
possibility" in Afghanistan. "We have not lost in Afghanistan...but we
will lose unless we do things differently," Ashdown wrote. He warned
that international terrorists are creating a new haven in Pakistan's
tribal regions. Ashdown had been a top candidate for the post of UN
special envoy to Afghanistan, but he withdrew his candidacy last month
in response to strong opposition from the Afghan government. In the
article, which outlines the strategy he would have followed had he
gotten the job, Ashdown lists security, governance, and the rule of law
as top priorities for Afghanistan. AT

The UN's World Food Program (WFP) has secured commitments worth $31
million from the United States, Canada, and Denmark for aid to 2.55
million hungry Afghans, IRIN reported on February 13. The WFP country
representative, Rick Corsino, noted that the United States pledged
wheat donations worth $19 million, while Canada offered $10.1 million
and Denmark $2 million in aid. Other countries are expected to
contribute over $14 million to the appeal. The government of
Afghanistan and the UN have asked donors to contribute $80 million
worth of humanitarian aid for February to June 2008. The first 19,000
metric tons of U.S. wheat has reached Pakistan, and the WFP has begun
transporting it to southern Afghanistan. The UN has called on all
parties involved in the conflict there to ensure the safe passage of
the humanitarian convoys. AT

An Italian soldier was killed and another was wounded near Kabul in a
clash with insurgents on February 13, AFP reported. A Taliban
spokesman, Zabihullah Mujahid, told the news agency that the Taliban
was responsible for the ambush. The death brings the number of foreign
soldiers killed in Afghanistan to 14 this year. Meanwhile, three Afghan
soldiers were killed and three were injured in a bomb blast in the
southern province of Helmand, AFP quoted district chief Mullah Abdul
Salaam as saying. Salaam is a former Taliban commander who was
appointed as district chief after Musa Qala district in Helmand was
retaken from the Taliban. AT

Afghan President Hamid Karzai and King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia have
vowed to strengthen bilateral relations, according to a statement
released by the Afghan presidential office, the Xinhua news agency
reported on February 13. The leaders exchanged views on bilateral
relations and the situation in Afghanistan and the Islamic world during
a telephone conversation on February 12. Abdullah reassured Karzai of
his government's continued support for Afghanistan, the statement
concluded. AT

Iran has postponed due to "technical issues" a fourth round of talks
with U.S. officials in Baghdad, which were to have been held on
February 15, international news agencies reported on February 14.
Iran's ambassador in Baghdad, Hasan Kazemi-Qomi, said the talks on
Iraqi security will still take place, but at an unspecified time,
Reuters reported. The agency quoted U.S. Embassy spokeswoman Mirembe
Natongo as saying that it seems Iran was not ready to hold talks at
all. Agencies also reported on February 14 that Iranian President
Mahmud Ahmadinejad is to visit Baghdad on March 2, for talks with Iraqi
officials. VS

French officials including President Nicolas Sarkozy met in Paris on
February 14 with International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA)
Director-General Muhammad el-Baradei, and discussed the IAEA's ongoing
scrutiny of the Iranian nuclear program. Western states suspect Iran is
concealing some of its activities and may seek to make nuclear weapons
at some point; Iran rejects the allegations. A statement released by
the Elysee Palace after the meeting encouraged the IAEA to investigate
Iran's program "at length and with determination," "The New York Times"
reported. It quoted Sarkozy as telling a gathering of French Jews on
February 13 that Iran's uranium-enrichment activities -- used to
produce nuclear fuel -- have "no civilian use," as Iran claims. France
has moved closer to the U.S. and British position of taking a tough
line on Iran's nuclear program since Sarkozy succeeded Jacques Chirac
as president in May 2007. AP separately quoted unnamed diplomats as
saying in Vienna on February 15 that U.S. officials have in the past
two weeks shared selective intelligence with the IAEA indicating that
Iran sought at some point to develop nuclear bombs. The agency quoted
one diplomat as saying that the United States told the IAEA it could
reveal some of this evidence to Tehran to extract more information
about its activities. VS

Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei blamed Israel on February 14 for
the February 12 car-bomb killing in Damascus of senior Hizballah
operative Imad Mugniyah, Radio Farda reported, citing Iranian news
agencies (see "RFE/RL Newsline," February 14, 2008). Khamenei wrote to
Lebanese Hizballah chief Hasan Nasrallah to express his condolences for
Mugniyah's death. He described Mugniyah's life as an "epic" and an
example to youngsters, and blamed his assassination on "bloodthirsty
and criminal Zionists," Radio Farda reported. Mugniyah is thought to
have planned a number of terrorist and kidnapping operations that
killed hundreds in Lebanon in the 1980s; he was sought by Western
police and security agencies. Khamenei described him as a martyr who
devoted his life to fighting "oppression and arrogance." Expediency
Council Chairman Ali Akbar Hashemi-Rafsanjani has also written to
Nasrallah to express his condolences, IRNA reported on February 14.
Separately, 280 members of Iran's parliament signed a letter condemning
the killing and reiterating Iran's support for Hizballah, Radio Farda
reported. Foreign Minister Manuchehr Mottaki attended Mugniyah's burial
in Beirut on February 14, news agencies reported; the burial coincided
with a mass rally by Hizballah opponents elsewhere in Beirut to
commemorate the third anniversary of the car-bomb assassination of
former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafiq Hariri. VS

Iran's Foreign Ministry summoned the Danish ambassador in Tehran, Soren
Husland, late on February 13 to protest the renewed publication in
Denmark of pictures caricaturing the Prophet Muhammad, Radio Farda
reported on February 14, citing Iranian state television. Twelve such
cartoons were originally published in September 2005 in the Danish
newspaper "Jyllands-Posten," prompting anger and protests in Islamic
countries in the subsequent months. Danish newspapers reprinted the
cartoons on February 13 out of solidarity with Kurt Westergaard, who
drew one of the caricatures, after Danish police reportedly arrested
three people on February 12 suspected of plotting to kill Westergaard.
The head of the Iranian ministry's Central and Northern European
Affairs department, Hasan Baqeri, told Husland that it is
"unacceptable" to insult religion and justify "blasphemous acts" by
citing freedom of speech, IRNA reported. VS

At a February 14 press conference in Baghdad, the UN special envoy to
Iraq, Staffan de Mistura, announced that provincial elections in Iraq
will be held on October 1. De Mistura made the announcement a day after
the Iraqi parliament passed a law on provincial powers that paves the
way for provincial elections to be held before the end of the year (see
"RFE/RL Newsline," February 13 2008). De Mistura noted that the
positions of eight governorate electoral officers remain unfilled,
despite a five-month search by the Iraqi government. "It is vital that
all steps are taken to ensure that the Independent High Electoral
Commission is in a state of readiness for future elections," de Mistura
said. "We hope by ensuring transparency and professionalism in the
selection processes that this can be achieved." De Mistura said that at
the behest of the Iraqi parliament, the UN Assistance Mission for Iraq
(UNAMI) has agreed to assist in finding qualified candidates to fill
the posts. The vacant posts are in the governorates of Ninawa, Karbala,
Al-Najaf, Diyala, Wasit, Al-Basrah, and Baghdad, where there are two
such posts. SS

Iraqi government spokesman Ali al-Dabbagh announced on February 14 that
Iranian President Mahmud Ahmadinejad will make a historic two-day visit
to Iraq starting on March 2, Xinhua reported. "The Iranian president
will meet Iraqi leaders, including President Jalal Talabani and Prime
Minister Nuri al-Maliki. He will be accompanied by a number of
ministers," al-Dabbagh said. Ahmadinejad's trip will be the first-ever
visit by an Iranian president to Iraq since the creation of the Islamic
republic after the 1979 revolution. Ahmadinejad's visit was agreed last
month, but Iraqi officials only unveiled the date on February 14. No
reason was given for delaying the announcement. SS

A South Korean consortium, led by the state-run Korea National Oil Corp
(KNOC), has been awarded a contract to develop four oil fields in
Kurdish-controlled northern Iraq, "The Korea Times" reported on
February 14. The consortium signed a memorandum of understanding with
Kurdistan regional Prime Minister Nechirvan Barzani, who was in Seoul
to meet South Korean president-elect Lee Myung-bak. The deal also
requires several Korean construction companies to help develop the
infrastructure in Iraq's Kurdish region, including a $2.1 billion
highway. The agreement is the second between the KNOC-led consortium
and the Kurdistan regional government (KRG). Last November, the
consortium signed an agreement to take over a 38 percent stake in the
Bazian oil field. However, the new deal is likely to anger Baghdad,
which insists all oil contracts need to be approved by the central
government. In December 2007, the Iraqi government said it would halt
all oil exports to South Korea if the South Korean consortium went
ahead with its contract to develop the Bazian oil field (see "RFE/RL
Newsline," December 27, 2007). The Baghdad government has also said any
foreign firms that sign oil contracts with the KRG risk being barred
from competing for contracts to develop the huge oil fields in the
south. SS

Harith al-Athari, the director of Muqtada al-Sadr's office in
Al-Basrah, indicated on February 14 that a kidnapped journalist working
for CBS News might soon be released, international media reported.
"There are ongoing negotiations and contacts with the kidnappers. We
are confident the journalist will be released soon," al-Athari said.
Another member of al-Sadr's Al-Basrah office, Walid al-Quzay'i,
condemned the abductions of journalists and blamed them on armed gangs.
"The armed groups responsible for kidnapping journalists are mainly
doing it for money, even if some of them try to justify their actions
by giving political or religious reasons," al-Quzay'i said. The
journalist and his Iraqi interpreter were kidnapped from Al-Basrah's
Palace Sultan Hotel on February 10 by several armed men, and the
interpreter was released on February 13 (see "RFE/RL Newsline,"
February 12 and 14, 2008). The Paris-based group Reporters Without
Borders said that 25 journalists and media workers were kidnapped in
Iraq in 2007, while 208 have been killed since the U.S.-led invasion in
2003. SS

The U.S. military announced on February 13 that it has arrested an
administrator of a psychiatric hospital in Baghdad on suspicion of
supplying patient information to Al-Qaeda in Iraq, international media
reported on February 14. U.S. military spokesman Rear Admiral Gregory
Smith said the administrator of the Al-Rashid Psychiatric Hospital was
detained in connection with the "possible exploitation of mentally
impaired women by Al-Qaeda." "The administrator remains in
coalition-force detention and is being questioned to determine what
role, if any, [he had] in supplying Al-Qaeda with information regarding
patients at the Al-Rashid Psychiatric Hospital or from other medical
facilities in Baghdad," Smith said. He indicated that the administrator
might be linked to the February 1 bombings at two animal markets in
Baghdad that killed more than 50 people (see "RFE/RL Newsline,"
February 1, 2008). U.S. officials blamed the bombings on Al-Qaeda, and
said the bombers were two mentally disabled women wearing
remote-controlled explosive devices. Officials indicated that the two
women might not have known they were being used as suicide bombers. SS

Police officials say unknown gunmen killed nine members of a family
near the city of Tikrit in Salah Al-Din Governorate on February 14,
international media reported. "Labib Ali al-Zaidan, his wife, and their
seven sons were killed when unknown gunmen stormed their house before
dawn in the village of Awja," a local police source said. Awja is the
birthplace of former Iraqi President Saddam Hussein. Another police
source said the al-Zaidan family belonged to the al-Nasiri clan, to
which Hussein also belonged. The bodies of the victims were taken to a
nearby hospital in Tikrit. Police said they knew of no motive for the
attack, but are conducting an investigation. SS

President Putin has said Russia could redirect its missiles to target
Ukraine if Kyiv joined NATO. According to RFE/RL's guest authors, that
kind of talk is representative of an increasingly truculent foreign
policy, which goes largely unchallenged by Russia's political elite.

Over the past eight years, Russia's repression of its key domestic
institutions has been a defining feature of its governance. The
Kremlin's manipulation of Russia's recent parliamentary elections and
presidential succession are the most recent examples of an
ever-tightening grip on the country's political life.

What few have fully appreciated, however, is that the growing
authoritarianism of Russia's domestic politics is shaping the
parameters of its foreign policy. As President Vladimir Putin has
consolidated control over the country's political opposition, civil
society, and news media, independent voices of consequence have been
muzzled and are no longer able to challenge or temper the whims and
excesses of the Kremlin. This closing of ranks among an elite that has
its hands on the levers of state and commercial power has created a
dangerously insular system that produces public policy that does not
undergo meaningful debate and scrutiny.

Russia's leadership has left few stones unturned in its effort to
assert control over critical institutions. The strengthening of the
instruments of the state to maintain political dominance has been
especially visible in the business sector. The Kremlin under Putin has
cleansed independent players from the commanding heights of the economy
-- particularly the energy sector. Meanwhile, deep interlocking
interests have taken hold within the Kremlin, much of whose leadership
is "double-hatted" as state policy makers and stakeholders in some of
the country's largest commercial (though state-controlled)
enterprises.

In February, Viktor Zubkov, now prime minister, was named the
highest-ranking public official on the list of candidates for Gazprom's
board, suggesting that he will become Gazprom's next chairman,
replacing Dmitry Medvedev, the current chairman, who is being guided
into the Russian presidency. He joins numerous other officials with key
corporate positions, including deputy head of the presidential
administration Igor Sechin, who serves as chairman of the board at the
state oil company Rosneft. This merger of outsized strategic commercial
interests with those of senior Kremlin decision makers has subtracted
from the foreign-policy-making equation the sorely needed range of
voices that would be heard in an open and pluralistic system.

In the wake of this reassertion of state power and now with virtually
no institutional checks on its decision making, Russia's leadership is
pursuing an increasingly truculent foreign policy, taking hard-line
positions on issues ranging from Kosovo to Iran, and suffering
progressively fraught relations with Europe. The sharp descent of
Russia's relations with the United Kingdom stands out.

The rise of Putinism has been felt acutely in the countries on Russia's
borders, where the Kremlin is exerting political and economic pressure
on a set of vulnerable post-Soviet states.

Energy is a critical, though not exclusive, part of this approach. As
energy prices have soared, Russia's leadership has played the energy
card to apply pressure on supposed allies such as Belarus and Armenia,
as well as countries that represent test cases for reform, like
Ukraine, whose democratic aspirations have been consistently challenged
by the Kremlin.

Beyond energy, a mind-set has taken hold within Russia's elite that
mistrusts the outside world and sees anti-Russian conspiracies
everywhere. For Putin and his security-services-driven leadership, this
view places squarely in the crosshairs neighboring countries formerly
under the Kremlin's yoke. Russia has reserved its fiercest attacks for
democracies on its borders.

Georgia and Estonia are cases in point. Just as the Kremlin has gone
after domestic opponents, it is taking a similar tack against sovereign
neighboring states that are pursuing a democratic course. At home, it
is relying on capricious application of law to limit the ability of
independent groups to organize and using state propaganda to discredit
political opposition. Internationally, Russia has shown it can also
throw sharp elbows, applying a variety of economic, military, and
media-related instruments to accomplish its goals.

Georgia, a country consumed by recent political turmoil, has been a
prime target of the Kremlin's wrath. Along with Ukraine, Georgia
represents a critical test case for democratic reform in the former
Soviet Union. With a population of 4.5 million, this fragile would-be
democracy in the Caucasus has suffered since 2006 under a blanket
Russian blockade that seals the border between the two countries to
trade and transportation, and bars sea and air travel. The Kremlin's
unhelpful hand in Georgia's volatile breakaway territories of Abkhazia
and South Ossetia has exacerbated an already fragile regional order.
Last August, an aircraft -- entering from Russian airspace -- dropped a
Russian-made guided missile on Georgian territory not far from its
frontier with South Ossetia. The overwhelming suspicion is that the
Kremlin was behind this provocative act.

Despite its membership in the European Union and NATO, Estonia likewise
has been subjected to Kremlin-inspired attacks. In April 2007, this
small Baltic country was hit with a coordinated assault on its national
cyberinfrastructure. Known for its reliance on the Internet, the
country's banking system, media, parliament, and other institutions
were compromised. The attacks occurred at the time the Estonian
government decided to move a Soviet-era war memorial and the bodies of
soldiers buried beneath it. Kremlin-controlled state television whipped
up furious anti-Estonian sentiment. Members of Nashi, a Kremlin-backed
youth organization, harassed the Estonian ambassador in Moscow and
blockaded border posts. Russian oil stopped flowing through Estonian
ports.

At the time, Estonia's defense minister said there was not enough
evidence to prove "a [Russian] governmental role, but that it indicated
a possibility." The public response -- or absence thereof -- by the
Russian authorities suggests that even if official Russia did not
direct the cyberassault, it certainly did not view it as unwelcome.

Meanwhile, the Kremlin seems to be taking a somewhat different tack
recently with Estonia's Baltic neighbor, Latvia, which has over the
years been subjected to a relentless Kremlin campaign to stir up
resentment among Latvia's ethnic-Russian community. In what appears to
be a step back from this pugnacious approach, in recent months the
Kremlin has turned down the volume on Latvia's ethnic-Russian minority
and is "smothering Latvia with kindness," as Pauls Raudseps,
editorial-page editor of Latvia's leading daily "Diena," has noted.
Russia's Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov in January went out of his way
to cite the "very positive dynamic" in Russian-Latvian relations.

While the precise basis for this recent Kremlin shift is unclear,
Raudseps observes that "Russia could be trying to influence Latvia's
position on EU policies that are of interest to the Kremlin. For
instance, Latvia is one of the countries opposing the liberalization of
EU energy markets, a policy which would run counter to the Kremlin
strategy of controlling both the production and distribution of energy
and locking in consumers with long-term contracts."

While the Kremlin has seemingly tempered the propaganda campaign in
Latvia's case, the Estonian and Georgian episodes were emblematic of a
Kremlin approach that relies heavily on control and manipulation of
information to advance its objectives. The same propaganda machine that
was revved up to spark anti-Estonian sentiment was also put into
overdrive to attack the Georgian state and Georgians living in Russia.
A dangerous byproduct of the Kremlin's dominance of Russia's news media
is that it is able to routinely unleash harsh propaganda campaigns to
shape and distort public perceptions.

Russia's resurgence on the international scene has closely tracked the
rise in energy prices, which have given Russia's leadership leverage
that would not exist if oil prices were at, say, the level of when
Putin first came to power. The current Kremlin gambit does not,
however, represent Soviet-era global ambition. Instead, Russia is
pursuing a more circumscribed approach that first and foremost looks to
ensure that transparent and accountable democratic systems do not
succeed on Russia's periphery, where their proximity would pose the
greatest threat to the controlling Putin model of governance.

The same Kremlin leadership that gives no quarter to domestic
opposition likewise has little taste for democratic politics on its
doorstep, and therefore will continue to devote substantial energy to
prevent their advance.

(Christopher Walker is director of studies at Freedom House. Robert
Orttung is a senior fellow at the Jefferson Institute and author of the
Russia report in "Freedom in the World," Freedom House's annual survey
of politics rights and civil liberties.)