This German offensive was rather crazy! Anyway he's advanced basically in nowhere land (up north). In the center and south you are dangerously close to the Reich border! If he wants to stay up north, that would be a really loooong front that you can pierce in the center and south.

On my game Berlin is much farther away I would be more optimist in your situation.

Farfarer mentioned that the game was back on, but I haven't recovered from the great German Blizzard Offensive of 1942-43.

The heavily populated cities of Kazan and Kivov were lost as mentioned. Including what was lost at Gorky and other cities in the immediate area, a lot of production disappeared including all light tanks and armored cars. Since the start of 1943 through mid April there were no arms accumulating in the production pool while manpower reserves sat in excess of 1 million.

The loss of Kirov also cut the rail link to the Leningrad Front and subsequently rifle divisions began surrendering to attacking Axis forces due to excess distance from the railhead.

The first week of February saw Soviet fortunes fall even further as 9 guards rifle corps that attempted to advance westwards into open terrain were surrounded in the Dnepropetrovsk bridgehead. 270,000 were lost in that action. While this was happening, the Germans had now withdrawn from Kazan, while holding Kirov to keep the Leningrad Front in crisis. Units from that front eventually began a hasty retreat eastwards in order to avoid combat.

Farfarer was content with the amount of damage done and conducted a smooth evacuation by rail in the area of Kazan. Soviet 53rd Army under Marshal Semyon Budyonny garrisoned the city of Kazan and the immediate area in the event of a return engagement. On the north bank of the Volga east of Gorky, Vladimir Vostrukhov's 22nd Army moved west in the face of little opposition. 49th Army under Filipp Gorelenko to the south of the 22nd similarly moved west and straddled both banks of the Volga and was tied into the northern flank of Malinovsky's Southwestern Front.

Rodion Malinovsky used his mechanized and tank forces to punish what German infantry divisions could be found in relatively open and unfortified terrain. In the first week of march, Southwestern Front boasted two general officer promotions with Pavel Batov of 58th Army (Mechanized) being promoted to General-Polkovnik. 1st Shock Army Commander Semyon Krivoshein was promoted to General-Leytenant. 2nd Shock Army commander Ivan Chernyakhovsky of Southwestern Front had received a similar promotion in mid-January. And it was Chernyakhovsky's 3rd Guards Mechanized Corps that reached the southern bank of the Oka only 20 miles from Gorky in the first week of March.

In addition to the forces of the Southwestern Front, 5th Shock Army under Fyodor Tolbukhin was organized and sent into the area of operations with four cavalry corps. Tolbukhin had barely escaped with his life when his army with the Volkhov Front around Moscow was surrounded. He was later transferred to 5th Shock as it was activated by the STAVKA.

I am hoping you can get the upper hand here quickly(June) and start putting GHC on the defensive.

I beleive from my past exp that you should be attacking all along the front lines. Do not pick a spot and start a bubble as this could be easy picking for GHC.

These general attacks will cause losses over time that the GHC manpower can not make up for+morale losses. I have tracked this before on other AAR's. I beleive you only have to win 50-60%% of the time. Hoooper is or was the master at the book keeping side of this. Even the battles you lose will add up quickly.

This grinding will weaken the GHC over time 6 months. Grinding not making bubbles is what needs to be done starting in late 42-late 43 depending on the game.

The HUGE plus in this game is your very close to the minor allies borders in south. If your lines in the south/center were 300-400 miles east I would say you have zero chance to win, but with lines so close to the 41 border you have a very good chance at a draw.

A minor win is very doable also depending on GHC minor errors and some good game play on your part.

The D/Z Town probablem I beleive can be over come with some of Flaviusx great advice on reserve armys.

I personally dont know the in and outs, but I would PM him and ask for some ideas on keeping flanks 100% air tight, this really should be easy here in the bend of rivers. You only need to get 2 to 1 in cv.

There are some great Red minds and exp that I dont think get pumped enough for info.

Southwestern Front continue to apply pressure in the area to the south of Gorky. Only a few German divisions remain east of the Oka. Far to the west at Smolensk, the German 208th Infantry Division is threatened with encirclement. Soviet positions extend 20-30 miles north of the Dnepr. Not far to the southwest of Smolensk, Mogilev on the west bank of the Dnepr was liberated. The Bryansk Front reported the liberation of Gomel.

Mud has largely halted all operations as both sides accumulate troops for the coming offensive. It remains to be seen who strikes first. German tank production has resulted in over 4,200 machines deployed. This will support the 3.9 million men of the Wehrmacht who now face 6.8 million men of the Red Army.

In the area of Southwest Front, the Germans abandoned Gorky which was promptly occupied by 76th Guards Rifle Division of Vostrukhov's 22nd Army. The 22nd Army also continues a rather uncontested advance towards the Volga from the northeast. The Germans are fortifying the western bank of the Oka in preparation for its defense.

Smolensk in the west changed hands and was returned again to Soviet control.

Southwest of Mogilev, General Vatutin's Bryansk Front has advanced beyond the Drut River towards the Berezina. Ther Red Army stands 100 miles from Minsk.

In the Dnepropetrovsk Region, operations are largely suspended due to the loss of the previously mentioned 9 guards rifle corps and mud. New formations are slowly being raised to replace the lost units.

The biggest news may have come in week 97 when the nineteen week drought in the arms pool finally ended with 25,000 accumulated. By turn 100 it was over 100k. This will allow for some stepped up production in artillery divisions that had been suspended for a while. In Week 97 there were two personnel changes.

Rodion Malinovsky's Southwestern Front was formed in October 1942 from a variety of battered armies after the German '42 Summer Campaign. The front consists 12 mechanized and 8 tank corps in addition to the 8 breakthrough artillery divisions of 62nd Army.

Their victory/defeat record then compared to May 1943 (note that general's rank reflects that at time of assignment to the front)

It is the Axis Forces which take advantage of clear weather along the lower Dnepr by launching their offensive, named Drang Nach Osten III. Four SS divisions lead the attack supported by at least six panzer divisions and push towards Poltava. The Voronezh Front along with two rifle corps and two rifle divisions of the Caucasus Front are initially encircled in an upper and lower pocket along the Dnepr. Three cavalry corps from Vasily Volsky's 65th Army, Southern Front are also caught in the lower pocket,

In the lower pocket, two blocking positions in rough terrain are established to slow the advance of the German divisions over the Dnepr. The forces in the bridgehead in the Dnepropetrovsk area also are ordered to stand fast.

Aggressive action by Red Army units to break both pockets succeeds and in turn isolates three of the German divisions.

Meanwhile, 60 miles south of Gorky at the headquarters of Soutwestern Front, Malinovsky is advised of the transpiring events by the new commander of the Steppe Front, Zhukov. Steppe Front, situated in the Upper Dnepr, has been organized around 1st, 2nd and 3rd Tank Armies and two cavalry armies, the 24th and 5th Shock.

In that thread, gradenko_2000 pointed out something interesting related to applying the arms multiplier of 1.3 as compared to the old 2.0. One would have thought that under the old arms calculation if you got a total of X production in 1941, then you got 2X production from 1942-1945 and you would be correct. You would then conclude that with a multiplier of 1.3, you would get 1.3X in 1942-1945. You would be incorrect.

Why is that?

If you understand the details of the above thread, the multiplier is applied to each factory with any fraction/decimal point dropped. So if you have an arms factory with a size of 3, and multiply by 1.3, you get 3.9. Drop the decimal and you're still left with 3. In other words, any Soviet factories, size 1, 2 or 3 never increase their output in the duration of the war. Now if the multiplier had been set to 1.4, then it would calculate out to 3 x 1.4 = 4.2. Drop the decimal and you would get 4, an increase of 33%.

How does that effect things?

Fully 63% of Soviet arms factories (49 of 78) are size 1-3, meaning that almost 2/3 of the Soviet arms factories will never produce more during the entire game, multiplier or no. If you're into numbers and calculate out if every arms factory got out and based on their individual size, your 370 starting factories would be valued at 426 with the 1.3 multiplier against all factories. That is an increase of 16.4% And that is roughly what you get regardless of the factories you lose. So you shouldn't think of Soviet arms production growing by 30% in 1942-1945, it's really closer to half that.

Too bad they didn't make the multiplier 1.4. There are 34 size 3 factories that would increase to a value of 4 each, if that was the case (3 x 1.4 = 4.2, decimal drop to 4) That would add another 8,500 tons of arms per week, if you actually got them all out.

And some thing to be aware of when u evac HI, Vehicles and Arms factories. It matters how you detail wise evac things. Again one of the things i dont really understand about this game. Why make things needlessly complicated. If u want a production of X make the multiplier X of total. Not making how u evac stuff a freaking game in it self that only 10% of the player base understands.

This isnt exactly the only place in the game where u complicate stuff in ways that differentiate the player base. My opinion is that this does a disservice to game. Oh well its not first game designer i've met that had a love of non liniar mathematics.

Georgy Zhukov of Steppe Front is promoted to Marshal. Andrei Kravchenko of 4th Tank Army is promoted to General-Polkovnik.

The Axis offensive across the lower Dnepr succeeds in shattering the Voronezh Front and the southern portion of Bryansk Front. The pocket southeast of Kiev holds the better part of two Soviet armies and is unbreakable. Farther south between Poltava and Dnepropetrovsk, things don't go as planned for Farfarer. While Malinovsky's Southwestern Front headquarters was kept in plain view south of Gorky, all the subordinate armies minus 1st Artillery had been quietly sent by rail to the west in the Spring. These armies took up positions in the woods near Kharkov and were able to launch a counterattack which routed two panzer divisions along with the GrossDeutschland motorized division.

Intelligence has learned that this is forcing a change of plans on the part of the fascists. Casualty figures for the two week period show German operational strength dropping nearly 70,000. Artillery losses about 1,300. Tank strength has also dropped by over 400. Soviet figures show an overall slight increase in these categories.

The change in plan by the Axis forces results in the isolation of all Soviet forces along the Upper Dnepr and extending east of Smolensk.

The line of German forces is thin, and some of their units are isolated in turn as the Red Army re-establishes the land link with the Upper Dnepr armies.

Enemy casualty estimates for the last seven days are over 60,000 Germans with over 400 tanks out of action. The Red Army suffers a similar drop in manpower as the Baryshevka Pocket is liquidated. Soviet tank forces suffer only a modest drop of 120 machines.

Ivan Fedyuninsky of the Central Front's 6th Army is promoted to General-Armii.

The arms pool continues to run a surplus of 80k. Manpower pool remains around 1.2 million. The latter figure is interesting because about 228,000 of that is unuseable. The reason for that is the Railroad Construction Brigade. When the Axis forces made their wholesale retreat in the winter of 1941-42, much of the Soviet railroads in the formerly occupied zones were wrecked. It was necessary to repair much of this so that if a retreat by rail was needed, that the tracks would be servicable in the vicinity of the front line units. The answer then was to create many RRCBs for this purpose and then later disband many of them.

Each of these uses 3,000 men. Of these, 2,000 are in 200 labor squads and 1,000 men in 50 support. When they are disbanded, the support units can go back to the pool and later to many different units. However, the labor squad only is found in the RRCB. As a result even when you disband it, the labor squads simply return to the production pool. They cannot go anywhere else, unless you create a new RRCB. So it is important to keep in mind that when creating a RRCB, that 2,000 men effectively are given a wartime waiver from fighting. They can't be recycled into rifle squads for instance. So 2/3 of the manpower in an RRCB is non-recoverable if disbanded. Since the winter of 1941-42, some 95 RRCBs have been disbanded but the manpower associated with the labor squads still remains in the pool.

The men from a disbanded labor squad are added to the manpower pool just like the men from a support squad. Their equipment will be stored as such, but it did not cost any ARM so no loss, except for the AP:s.

Sh** ! So this is where the war will be won or lost ! Can the Axix pocket some of those troops and force a retreat giving it more breathing space for 44 onwards or will he pay the price for this folly. Looking forward to the next turns !

Fascist troops re-establish their isolation of the Upper Dnepr armies. At least nine panzer divisions are identified, along with 4 SS motorized Divisions in the deep German penetration.

Central and Bryansk Fronts continue to hold their westernmost positions, even though fatigue is 40-60% in many units. 2nd Artillery Army of the Central front is shifted east to provide fire support for units trying to break the German ring.

It falls to Marshal Zhukov and his Steppe Front to free the isolated Soviet forces.

Zhukov sends in Bogdanov's 2nd Tank Army north of Dubrovka to break the German line. Steppe Front cavalry units from Rybalko's 24th Army and Tolbukhin's 5th Shock supported by 12th and 13th Guards Tank Corps drive a wedge into the area south of Dubrovka. Three panzer and one motorized divisions are cut off. Taking advantage of the favorable terrain north of Dubrovka, Soviet rifle corps hope to keep the Germans from being able to re-establish their isolation of the Upper Dnepr armies. 1st and 3rd Tank Armies lend their weight to the attacks to throw the panzers back. Increasing numbers of enemy tanks are out of action, over 1,200 in 6 weeks of fighting. The Luftwaffe is also feeling the strain, dropping to 2,150 active aircraft compared to the February peak of 2,750.

The first week of July, and the farfarer keeps his armies on the offensive. North of Dubrovka, SS divisions Leibstandarte and Das Reich attack in a southern direction towards the Desna River. With the help of 6th and 24th Panzer Divisions, they succeed in routing several Soviet rifle divisions and corps.

South of Dubrovka, six panzer divisions drive north and cause heavy casualties among four guards cavalry corps and two tank corps. Soviet forces lose over 20,000 men and 280 vehicles in five battles alone.

With the German forces stretched to their limit at Dubrovka, Southwestern Front counterattacks.

Chernyakhovsky's 2nd Shock Army with support from Rodin's 3rd Tank Army surround and rout 1st, 2nd and 20th Panzer Divisions.

North of Dubrovka at the Desna, the mechanized corps of Batov's 58th Army assisted by 3rd and 4th Tank Armies rout 7th and 23rd Panzer Divisions along with the 2nd SS Motorized Brigade.

Further north, 1st Shock Army drives back the 6th amd 24th Panzer Divisions.

In conjunction with these attacks, the previously isolated 4th and 33rd Armies attack east to drive the Germans further back towards Vyazma. This puts the two SS motorized divisions in a more isolated position, although they will likely break out without too much effort. But with hundreds of German vehicles out of action from battles this week, the German offensive now appears to be at an end.

The Steppe Air Army has been reinforced and can now deliver punishing blows.

Pavel Rotmistrov has been promoted to General-Polkovnik. His 1st Tank Army is expected to be awarded Guards status shortly.

One of the most interesting AARs to date I think! I hope it continues to the bitter end.

In the short term it seems that the bitter pill could be for the Axis to swallow! Though not really bitter, just a missed chance at Dubrovka to pocket what looks like a 3rd of Soviet strength remaining. As long as his formations get out of the corridor alive, and I guess reserves should be sufficient to help extracting the overextended Panzers, Axis has at least won time with this offensive. It looks very stunning for summer '43, but the previous gains and successes put Axis into a good position here. Can you post some loss and OOB screens?

quote:

ORIGINAL: Pelton

Ok I was right and wrong about HVY.

1. The German player can never destory enough hvy like arm to slow HVY production of supplies. Just not possible

BUT

2. Enough hvy can be destoried that not enough supplies are prodused to supply a large army in 42 and 43 during hvy fighting.

Now as far as this game goes manpower being the centeral issue.

Pelton, you speak in riddles... First you say that HI is never an issue, no matter how much is lost to the Axis, yet then you say that losses can lead to Soviet supply shortages in and after 42 during heavy fighting? I guess you meant to say the second, which actually makes sense and showed in a few AARs. I guess it is how it ought to be. However, independent of how much is produced, some of the frontline shortages (and hence, the stop-and-go character of typical, larger scale offensives) ought to originate from limited logistic rates, and not global pool shortages. Aka think of the German winter equipment issues starting October and going thru January 41: it was there, but in warehouses in Poland and such; but supplies, ammo and replacements had been given priority too long.

Force conservation (and hence manpower) are certainly two of the lessons to be learned, and two of the things history taught us. I don't find that surprising. The third thing is the lesson that the war was neither won nor lost for either side in 41, nor so in 42. The long haul in contrast to Hitler's Blitzkrieg plans was inevitable, and ought to have been planned for.