The gathering of the "Friends of the Syrian People" in Istanbul,
scheduled to open on Sunday, is the latest diplomatic move in a
series of steps that have so far produced no real results.
Representatives from over 70 countries – headed by U.S. Secretary of
State Hillary Clinton but without delegates from Russia and China –
will try once again to formulate the policies for dealing with the
crisis in Syria. At the very least, delegates are seeking to assist
tens of thousands of Syrian refugees and citizens stranded in their
homes, suffering from the military´s attacks while having no access
to medical attention and basic food supplies.

Former UN Secretary General Kofi Annan´s recent plan - which calls
for a ceasefire and a retreat of President Bashar Assad´s forces from
city centers - was practically put to rest on Saturday by Clinton
during a press conference with Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Saud Al
Faisal. Clinton indicated she has little confidence that Assad would
cooperate with Annan´s plan.

A report which Annan will present to the UN General Security Council
on Monday is also unlikely to change the situation; Assad continues
to butcher his own citizens, and on Saturday alone at least 30 people
lost their lives. Although Annan has pledged that UN peacekeepers
would be deployed in Syria as soon as the gunfire subsides – there is
no indication at the moment that the Syrian army is prepared to hold
its fire. At present, even humanitarian missions are unable to reach
those in need.

The Arab League´s plan for a political solution has been scoffed at
by Assad from the it was conceived, and the League´s resolutions on
Friday only strengthened the Syrian opposition´s sense that there is
currently no Arab or international body ready to adopt a policy of
military intervention to put a stop to Assad´s actions.

The fact that no representative from the Syrian opposition was
invited to speak at the Arab League summit – and in doing so, denied
international recognition of the largest political opposition body in
Syria – only serves to show that no one really thinks Assad´s regime
is in danger. On Saturday, Clinton expressed her doubts over Assad´s
ability to maintain power, yet she added that the issue will be
discussed on Sunday in Istanbul. Clinton is also well aware that
without an alternative regime to take hold of power, any suggestions
of a regime-change in Syria are unrealistic. Such an alternative
leadership is impossible to put into place as long as bitter
divisions remain within the ranks of Assad´s rivals – particularly
the discord between the Syrian-based opposition and the opposition
outside the country.

One leaser who has excelled in reading the political map is head of
Hezbollah Hassan Nasrallah. On Thursday, Nasrallah said that "The
issue of bringing down the [Syrian] regime through a military option
is over," he said, warning that military intervention in Syria might
lead to a regional war." Nasrallah also added that "the armed
opposition is unable to topple the regime. This matter is clear."

It seems that doubts over the possibility of Assad´s downfall are not
limited to Hezbollah or Iran. As long as the U.S. objects to Saudi
Arabia and Qatar´s calls to arm the opposition; as long as the Syrian
opposition fails to consolidate a united front; and as long as Turkey
prevents weapon shipments from its territory – Assad will not be
forced to start thinking about political asylum for his family and
him.