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Brady Center on "crime surge"

Posted by David Hardy · 20 December 2006 09:47 AM

FBI reports that, after many years of declines, violent crime went up 5%. The Brady Center promptly issued this press release proclaiming it a "a surge in violent crime" and attributing it to guns and less federal money for police.

As to the first: hmmm... funny how crime rates declined for years, as Americans bought more guns.

As to the second: why are cities so dependent on federal funds, for their most basic task of policing their communities?

Let's say there were 100 crimes in one year.
The next year there is only 50.
That's a 50% decrease...
Then say the following year there is again 100 crimes--a 100% increase in the crime rate.

In one direction [down] there was a 50% change, in the other [up] there was a 100% change. Both changes were only 50 crimes though.

Small number precentages [5% for example] showing a decline can mean a very large number of fewer crimes. Small number precentage [again 5%] increases aren't anywhere near the same number of actual crimes.

So, after years of declining violent crime, a 5% increase, while nondisreable, is not a "the sky is falling" situation.

It would seem "The Brady bunch" enjoys dancing in the blood of others.

The Party Line is that the Bush Administration is culpable. This was devised in the Bloomberg mansion when B met with a number of other big-city Mayors during the summer, among them Tom Barrett of Milwaukee.

But what's REALLY interesting is that the Milwaukee violent crime rate jumped 35% (thirty-five percent)--in a State where CCW remains ILLEGAL.