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Sunday, October 02, 2016

Washington Capitals 2016-2017 Previews -- Forwards: Tom Wilson

Tom Wilson

“True progress quietly and persistently moves along without
notice.”

-- Saint Francis de Sales

More than a few Washington Capitals fans might look at Tom
Wilson and see a 16th-overall draft choice that is not performing
like a 16th-overall draft choice.He might merit another look.Looking at his 2012 draft class, Wilson ranks fifth in career games played
(231), 16th in goals scored (14), 12th in assists (36),
12th in points (50), tied for 13th in plus-minus (plus-3).He also happens to have more than three times
as many penalty minutes (486) than the second-place player, Winnipeg’s Jacob
Trouba (151).

Of more immediate importance, Wilson has improved in each of
his three seasons in multiple statistical categories.Goals have climbed from three in his rookie
season to four in his sophomore year to seven last season.Assists jumped from seven to 13 to 16.Points rose from 10 to 17 to 23.Shots on goal went from 63 to 79 to 99, with
his shooting percentage going along for the ride, from 4.8 to 5.1 to 7.1.His time on ice has risen from 7:56 per game
in his rookie season to 10:56 in his second season to 12:55 last year.And a big part of that was the shorthanded
ice time Wilson logged.Whereas in
2014-2015 he recorded a total of 46 shorthanded seconds, he averaged 1:35 a
game last season.

That penalty minute number has been one that stood out for
Wilson in each of his three seasons.No
player in the league has more combined minutes over the last three seasons than
Wilson (Antoine Roussel and Derek Dorsett are tied in second with 480
minutes).Those 486 minutes for Wilson
are the most for a player in his first three seasons in the league since Jared
Boll recorded 555 penalty minutes for the Columbus Blue Jackets ending in
2009-2010.

However, Wilson displayed more discipline in his third
season than in the previous season.His
total minutes were down (from 172 to 163), as were his minutes per game (2.57
to 1.99) and his fighting majors (from 12 to 7).Not that the exuberance was necessarily a bad
thing.The Caps were 4-1-2 in games in
which Wilson had a fighting major and 8-2-3 in games in which he recorded at
least five minutes in penalties.

Fearless’ Take…

The fighting and the penalty minutes might not have
mattered, but the Caps got a glimpse that his ability to contribute
supplemental scoring might matter more.Washington was 7-0-0 in games in which Wilson recorded a goal (extending
that streak with wins in a goal-scoring game to eight dating back to the
2014-2015 season) and 19-0-1 in games in which he recorded a point (28-0-3
dating back to the 2014-2015 season).

Cheerless’ Take…

I wonder if Tom Wilson wasn’t a bit of a bad luck charm last
season.According to the folks at
stats.hockeyanalysis.com, Wilson skated at least 100 5-on-5 minutes with six
other forwards.Four of them – Jason Chimera,
Brooks Laich, Mike Richards, and Michael Latta – are no longer with the team
(Jay Beagle and Marcus Johansson were the others).And here is the other thing with those six
forwards.Their possession numbers
(Corsi-for) were better apart from Wilson than they were with him.

And the postseason.One point.One.And it was not as if his ice time was cut
back.He still averaged 12 minutes a
game.And those possession numbers were
still pretty weak (46.95 percent Corsi-for at 5-on-5).He had only two shots on goal in his last
seven games in the postseason.He has
had only 15 shots on goal in his last 25 postseason games.

The Big Question… Can Tom Wilson make it four-for-four in
improving his performance numbers?

Tom Wilson has improved steadily in his three-year career so
far, but the numbers are still modest.Twelve minute/23 point players are not rare commodities in the NHL.On the other hand, Wilson will not turn 23
years old until next March.He is young
enough to be given room to grow, but the Caps having T.J. Oshie and Justin
Williams on the right side, then going out and getting another right winger in
Brett Connolly, might make one wonder about just how much room – or more
precisely, time – Wilson might get to improve upon his numbers.One thing that would help with the time he
gets is improve on his possession numbers from last season.He would seem to have it in him, or at least
not be a drag on possession.He was
52.65 percent Corsi-for at 5-on-5 in 2014-2015 before dropping to 46.55 percent
last season (numbers from Corsica.hockey).

In the end…

Tom Wilson is entering the first year of a two-year/$2
million contract with the Caps.Among
his age and compensation cohort he does not seem to be quite the value of the
others in the group (one that might include Marcus Foligno, Riley Sheehan,
Calle Jarnkrok, Jason Zucker, Vladislav Namestnikov, and Sven Baertschi in the 22-25
age group and $1.75-2.25 million AAV; numbers from generalfanager.com).But the Caps have had the luxury of bringing
Wilson along slowly as a right winger.The flip side of that entering this season is that there might be
something of a log jam in front of him with T.J. Oshie, Justin Williams, and
perhaps Brett Connolly.It will put a
premium on making the most of what might be limited opportunities, or at least
opportunities that do not look a lot different from the fourth line work that
has dominated his resume to date.

Wilson has managed to improve his numbers without the
benefit of getting much of an increase in ice time with more productive
personnel.Last season, for example, he
recorded fewer than 50 5-on-5 minutes with each of Alex Ovechkin, Nicklas
Backstrom, and Evgeny Kuznetsov, and he had less than two minutes of power play
time for the season.He might have some growth
left in him in this role, but his development arc might be getting to that
point where the club is going to have to see what he can do with more
responsibility.That could be where the
next step in his progress lies.

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The Washington Capitals enter the 2016-2017 as one of 12 franchises in the NHL never to win a Stanley Cup. Of that group, only the St. Louis Blues (48 seasons), Buffalo Sabres (45 seasons), and Vancouver Canucks (45 seasons) have gone longer never having won a Cup than the Capitals (41 seasons). Six teams came into the league after the Capitals entered the league in 1974-1975 and have won Stanley Cups: Colorado Rockies/New Jersey Devils (1976-1977), Edmonton Oilers (1979-1980), Quebec Nordiques/Colorado Avalanche (1979-1980), Hartford Whalers/Carolina Hurricanes (1979-1980), Tampa Bay Lightning (1992-1993), and the Anaheim Ducks (1993-1994).

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