April 24 - In a study of 30 major political organizations, the Campaign Finance Institute (CFI) has released a report (click here to download, 1042K, pdf) projecting the impact of recently passed legislation on the politics of 2004 and beyond. This report suggests, "there are likely to be huge changes in interest group strategies over the next two elections, just as there have been over the past two." But the study goes on to say that with the high stakes of the election in a politically balanced Congress, "we can't just assume the new law is the cause of everything new that we see." The study was a preliminary report designed to set a baseline for understanding how and why interest groups change their campaign strategies and tactics. The baseline will be used over the next two election cycles to sort out the effects of the new Bipartisan Campaign Reform Act of 2002 (BCRA).

This report, "New Interest Group Strategies - a Preview of Post McCain-Feingold Politics?" is now available through its web site at www.CFInst.org. A transcript of an event based on the study is also on the website. Speakers at the event include two of the study's four authors, CFI's executive director Michael J. Malbin and Georgetown University Professor Clyde Wilcox. The discussants were Steven Rosenthal, political director of the AFL-CIO, and Greg Casey, President of the Business-Industry Political Action Committee (BIPAC).

The baseline report, released Friday, reveals that funding sources and campaign tactics have changed markedly in recent elections, even without this new law. "Many groups saw that a small increase in turnout, or a small shift among undecided voters, could decide party control of the House, Senate, and the presidency," explained CFI. "As a result, many groups shifted from a focus on advertising to grassroots mobilization and networking."

After the BCRA takes effect, the new law's impact is likely to vary for groups with different characteristics and different political agendas. For example, the report predicts that pragmatic groups (those giving to incumbents of both parties in order to gain benefits in legislation) "will probably put less money into federal races than they have in the past." The report continues, "to the extent that corporate treasury money was being given in response to requests, to preserve access, at least some of that money will stay on the sidelines….. this is one place where the law is likely to make a difference."

However, the report suggests that ideological or issue groups (seeking to influence the party balance in government) will remain fully engaged. CFI said that the BCRA, "appears on first reading to be pushing those groups away from broadcast electioneering, but many of the larger groups in our study were moving in that direction anyway." The report then predicts:

Groups with small membership bases cannot convert readily to voter mobilization activities, even if they have large budgets. They are likely to shift their advertising to forms not covered by the BCRA.

Some of the largest issue groups could spin off "unincorporated associations" to raise money from individuals willing to accept disclosure. The separate associations could pay for televised electioneering. Televised electioneering thus can continue, but without corporate or labor money, and with full disclosure.

Groups of all sizes may increase their direct mail and telephone campaigning. Unlike TV or radio electioneering ads, these may still be supported by corporate and labor money and need not be disclosed to the Federal Election Commission. The groups also may increase their advertising before the 60-day window, or use ads that evoke candidates' issue themes without naming the candidates.

In conclusion, CFI's report suggests that "any group's choices will be based on its assessment of the political environment and its resources. The law will not be a major impediment for larger organizations with individual contributor bases."

This baseline study, looking at groups strategies or tactics, included two private roundtable dinners held at the Campaign Finance Institute in Washington, DC followed by interviews with the groups' strategists. The participants were chosen based on their activity and innovation in the 2000 election cycle. CFI plans to continue this project through the 2004 elections, which will be the first covered by the new law.

The Campaign Finance Institute is a non-partisan organization affiliated with The George Washington University that engages in policy relevant research, organizes task forces and conducts public programs in the field of campaign finance. It is supported by generous grants from The Joyce Foundation, The Pew Charitable Trusts, and the Smith Richardson Foundation, Inc.