As we’ve seen countless times, a logjam in a starting rotation never ends up being a hurtle. At first, the Astros were seemingly cutting out Lance McCullers with boring vets like Doug Fister and Scott Feldman, the latter who has really not worked out as a starter… Feldman was throwing some good RP innings though, before they dumped him north of the border… Anyway, with McCullers’ elbow barking, it opened a spot for Joe Musgrove to step right into the rotation.

I’ve been thinking back; has there been a more exciting SP debut for a guy coming out of the bullpen at first? 4.1 innings coming in for the injured McCullers with 1 hit, 1 walk, and 8 Ks and a Jose Fernandez-esque fiery presence from Musgrove. Brian McCann will be a big baby whenever the Yankees face him… 8 strikeouts has to be close to a record for an MLB debut out of the bullpen (broadcast tells me it tied the record, nice work Astros broadcast!)… I guess without the clear opening through the season, it dulled the fantasy love for Musgrove, who had a crazy 10.25:1.03 K:BB in AA and 8.69:1.07 in AAA. Makes Phil Hughes look wild! Although, throwing Phil Hughes’ name in here isn’t exciting anyone… Hopefully a good outing and sexy GIFs will do that! Here’s how Musgrove looked yesterday afternoon in his first career MLB start:

First Inning: Musgrove’s first pitch is a 92 MPH fastball sinking to just out of the zone, 1-0 to Shin-soo Choo. Another inside fastball is cranked to right foul, change-up at 83 flutters outside, 92 MPH fastball is way inside as he was on top of the baseball a little too much and he dragged his arm over it a bit, but 3-1 is a beautiful fastball on the low outside corner that’s grounded weakly to first, one down. 93 just outside to Ian Desmond, 93 on the outside black gets a whiff, fastball again outside just off the plate, then fastball yet again out there is poked to second for another easy groundout. 94 on the gun skips in low to Jurickson Profar, fastball fouled off, fastball again fouled back, then 1-2 fastball at the top of the zone is hit fairly well to right, but it’s caught in front of the track for a 1-2-3 inning.

Second Inning: This has the making of a great pitcher’s duel with Yu Darvish mowing through the top of the Astros order, and Musgrove drops this curveball in there to Adrian Beltre open the 2nd:

Mannnnn, this control is awesome! Then fastball is grounded routinely to third, one down. Fastball a little inside to Rougned Odor, then fastball again in the lower third is hit hard to right center, but Jake Marisnick has it on the run on the track for the second out. Hard contact there, but Marisnick is a speedy CF. Fastball in there to Jonathan Lucroy (sadface), curveball drops low, (ummmm, sinking fastball? or splitter maybe?) at 91 drops low, hard sink on that, hanging curveball barely nips the inside corner and gets the call 2-2, curveball almost in the dirt is fought off foul, then 94 on the outer third locks up Lucroy for Musgrove’s first K on the day:

Third Inning: Sinking fastball right at the knees gets Musgrove ahead 0-1 to Mitch Moreland, curve hangs outside, fastball in the dirt, then fastball on the outside edge is popped in the infield for an easy first out. Curveball hangs wayyyyy outside to Nomar Mazzara, fastball misses, fastball again fouled off 2-1, then sinking fastball on the inside edge is grounded routinely to second, two down. Nice fastball poured in there to Delino DeShields 0-1, sharp curveball breaks outside, fastball slapped foul, whewww pretty curveball at 82 breaks just low but is taken, then 93 at the knees blows away DeShizz swinging, another 1-2-3 inning and Musgrove’s 2nd K.

Fourth Inning: Still a 0-0 deadlock and Musgrove is inside to Choo, drops in a high curve 1-1, change-up stays high, fastball with some cut movement on it gets a whiff, then 82 MPH change-up with this nasty sink on it drops in there for Musgrove’s 3rd K.

Fastball gets a whiff from Desmond, fastball fouled off, fastball again fouled off, then 0-2 again is a curveball that hung a little around the knees and Desmond muscles it to left for a single. First man on base… Then a first pitch fastball is hit pretty weak to second by Profar for an easy second out. Jose Altuve bobbled it a little, but it was hit too soft for a DP. And it doesn’t matter much either, as Beltre sends the first pitch on a lazy fly to right to end another quick inning.

Fifth Inning: Odor takes a monster cut and whiffs on a fastball 0-1, curveball stays outside, then curveball again is flared to left and Preston Tucker can’t quite get it sliding in, resulting in a leadoff bloop single. Argh. Tucker flinched going back before breaking in; a better LF nabs that one. Breaking ball starts off low to Lucroy, two-seam fastball gets the call outside but looked a little off the plate, 1-1 curve drops low, then a 2-1 89 MPH two-seamer right down the middle is roped to left for a double, and with Odor on the run, he scores fairly easily for Musgrove’s first ER. Musgrove misses low to Moreland, 90 MPH fastball low again, not loving this velo drop, but 90 MPH again at the knees gets a lazy fly to right, one down. Biggggg curveball at 80 gets a whiff from Mazara, another nice sharp hook at 81 drops low but Mazara takes, 90 MPH fastball high and away fouled off, curve barely misses the outside black, 91 outside is slashed foul, 92 is low and away – love seeing that velo creep back up – payoff pitch is a fastball fouled away, 3-2 again is a curve dribbled foul, then payoff again is a two-seamer that again ran back into the middle of the plate for a single to center; fortunately Lucroy didn’t read it great and holds at third. So one out, runners at first and third, and DeShields fouls back a fastball, curveball has DeShields unable to hold his swing 0-2, 92 is off the plate, then curveball is rolled over to third, Alex Bregman ensures Luc doesn’t take off, then takes the sure out at first. Bregman could’ve tried the DP, but DeShizz is quick. Thankfully it all works out as a high change-up to Choo is rolled over to first for an easy third out, and Musgrove does a pretty good job getting out of trouble, which could’ve been avoided with a stronger LF out there. When you don’t walk guys, it’s much easier…

Sixth Inning: 90 MPH fastball in there to Desmond, curveball gets an ugly swing 0-2, 93 almost paints the outside corner but is off the plate, then he goes 92 again and paints the outside edge this time for another K, and I love seeing the velo back, you have to wonder if he struggles from the stretch. Breaking ball in there to Profar, curveball sweeps into the zone and Profar didn’t like it but it was in there, curve again drops in low, 93 at the letters nipped foul, curve hangs outside, then curve again out there sweeps into the outside third for another K.

Nasty. Curve goes low and away to Beltre, two-seamer with nice sink on the hands gets a whiff, curveball gets Beltre to pull it foul, then 91 on the hands ties up Beltre with an ugly swing and Musgrove strikes out the side and does a JoFer “HELL YEA!” Fiery kid.

Seventh Inning: At 85 pitches, Musgrove is back out there and a first-pitch change-up is blooped barely over second for a leadoff single. Two absolute bloop singles for Odor… Big test here for Musgrove, as I want to see him pitch with success from the stretch. First-pitch two-seamer on the hands is fouled off by Lucroy, curve gets the call on the outside black and Luc isn’t happy, then curve again in the lower part of the zone is hit lazily to center for the first out. Inside fastball taken by Moreland, 90 MPH fastball outside, again 89-91 from the stretch vs. 91-94 wind-up. Ugh. Two-seamer with good sink is dribbled foul, fastball low in the dirt, then high fastball on the hands is popped in the infield, another soft out. Curve hangs outside to Mazara, Musgrove misses his release point again getting too much on top of the ball on an inside fastball that misses bad, but as that happened in the first, he again rebounds with a fastball right in there, albeit at 90 MPH. Curve in the zone bounced foul, then curve sweeping in the zone is flied lazily to center for an easy 3 outs after the bloop single. At 99 pitches, that’ll wrap it up for Musgrove who didn’t pitch too deep in the Minors, so a great step forward in his MLB career.

Final Analysis: Man, you just don’t see control artists like this coming straight out of the Minors, and well, the few times you do, they’re guys throwing junky junk. Musgrove has some pretty solid stuff! And two of the singles he gave up and more-or-less the one run he gave up were a little lucky, so his Gamescore+ came out a bit higher than his Gamescore.

Featuring both a nice sinking four-seamer and a tailing two-seamer, Musgrove was throwing the fastball anywhere from 89-94. He lost a few ticks in the stretch, but we’ll go more into that in a second. Playing off the hard stuff is his curveball. Interestingly, Fangraphs lists a difference between a slider and a curveball, but they all looked like curveball variants to me. Regardless, he could throw them for strikes, bounce them in the dirt to set up other pitches, and his overall command of that pitch was amazing. Same with his change-up, which isn’t a huge go-to pitch for him yet, but he has a good enough one to use against lefties when he needs it.

I have the perfect comp for what Musgrove is. What we expected Aaron Nola to be this year. Not quite the upside of what we saw from Nola the first few months of the season, and certainly not the downside either. Something like an 8:1.5 K:BB guy with a decent ERA, amazing WHIP, and opportunity for decent wins with that offense behind him. The biggest issue I had with his stuff is he was nowhere as dominant pitching out of stretch vs. the wind-up. He lost some velocity on the fastball, but fortunately can maintain the great command. And thankfully with his microscopic walk rate, he won’t be in the stretch too often anyway…

I was texting with Slim during the start yesterday (REL Astros owner) who has followed Musgrove through the Minors, and Slim was surprised they let Musgrove come out for the 7th. Not only did he come out, but he mowed em down, allowing only a bloop single before three easy outs. Says to me the Astros aren’t going to handle him with baby gloves. They need him in the rotation for the final stretch. So does your fantasy squad; he’s must-own ROS.

Updated Top 100 SP

(rankings for ROS based on 12-team Roto, green for risers, red for fallers)

Injuries, injuries, injuries… All over the place this week! Which helps vault the red hot Danny Duffy into the top-20. That 16 K game was absolutely unreal. Sometimes it just takes the lefties a while. Here’s to hopingJames Paxton is starting to get on his way in the same vein… And hopefully the comebacker off his elbow is only a bruise.

Thanks to you commenters for helping fix my J.A. Happ gaffe! I don’t own him anywhere and just flat out know the NL better (Brewers fan, play in one “only” league which is NL), but his numbers over the last calendar year are near top-10 when you pull in that finish with the Pirates and the run he’s on now. Remarkable stuff; Searage rubbed off his magic on him. That sounded wrong…

I didn’t really move him, but Robbie Ray might have one of the worst 200 K seasons in MLB history this year…

Thoughts on the must add label for Musgrove? And what did I get wrong in the ranks this week? I need your help for things that fall through the cracks! Let me know in the comments, and happy pitching Razzball Nation!

Are you close to dropping Shoemaker in your rankings? His crate seems to be decreasing.

What’s up with Ray? Is it the organization? Seems like Corbin, Bauer and Bradley didn’t develop there either? Personally, I think the franchise sold their soul for a world series and current fans have Luis Gonzalez and Bob Brenly to blame

Ummm, well he did have that hugggge K game semi-recently. With another blip of “meh” before it. I think he’s been consistent enough that he’d only drop a little.

Hahahaha, yeah they need some voodoo. Desert isn’t an easy place to pitch, Corbin wasn’t a big prospect so they got lucky there the year they got out of him, Bradley is the weird one. He looked soooooo good in the Minors early on…

@JVanSlyke: Hah, yeah with pitching on the decline this season, there’s something to be said for just plain boring consistency haha. Although looking at it again, I think I might put Hendricks above and move him down one more, but yeah still at that 30ish range. Any time!

since your doing the pitching write ups i’d like to see what your viewpoint is here. I can get stubborn and locked in on certain players so here it is. I’m in a 12 team h2h weekly points league al/nl now a pitching question. can you pick 5 out of these 9 to start. I have a hard time sitting some of my regulars so could use diff perspective

I def trust Carrasco more… But LAA doesn’t strike out, and that’s soooooo important to Carrasco success. Tanaka looked great his last time out, and always benefits from an extra day off, i think his next start gives him an extra day. Tanaka #4.

@JB Gilpin: no love for estrada.. he’s been pretty damn solid. That’s where I get stuck with who I start. Thx for the help. Wacha vs hendrix possibly 2nd best pitcher in the league with a killer offense. Thst sounds like doom for wacha on his second start. Thx for the ides I appreciate it.

@Scott: I def would keep rolling Shoe. He’s still been fine despite less Ks lately. Skaggs would depend on innings limit or starts limit concerns, if I owned him and not a weekly league and not way over my limits, I’d prob risk it

Which, if any, would you drop in a forever keeper dynasty league to add Dylan Bundy? League counts QS instead of Wins. I’m currently in 1st place and in great shape to win the league this year for what it’s worth.

@Billy Tell: Def dropping someone! Haha. I think Eduardo Rodriguez is my cut, he kinda burst onto the scene last year after just being a meh prospect if memory serves. Plus in Fenway, he’s helping you the least now, he’s my drop.

@Chris: Ohhhhhh, we love dat Snell! Hah, ummm, I’m leaning still rolling him out there unless you have better weekly lock options or well over innings or starts limit. Not a “must start”, but in 10 or 12ers about at pace with limits I probably would

I have Berrios as a 16th round reference and can keep him for up to 5 years – what are your thoughts on him next year and beyond? I know he has a killer skillset but he’s been very inconsistent in the Bigs so far.

@JimmyJackJames: Hmmmm, great question. I was surprised at his BB rates given the delivery I saw early in the year. Got a little unlucky with peripherals too. I think that price might be solid, I’d probably hold him on that for at least thru 2017

Thanks for these rankings and breakdowns every week buddy, they are gold. I find them just about as helpful in points leagues as they are in roto as well!
My biggest money league is a redraft points league and what started as kind of a shit show rotation through the first couple months of the season has become pretty nasty thanks a large part to your work!!

Stroman- drafted and dropped
Corbin- drafted and dropped
Walker- drafted and dropped
Matz- drafted and traded for R. Odor
For a points league especially on two start weeks having Bundy and Duffy is nasty.

This is a 10 team league with 4 playoff spots and a few guys have already mailed it in with no longer being in contention so the FA list is pretty enticing. A few guys you are really high on in there.
Snell
Musgrove
Paxton
I’ve already locked in my spot for the playoffs so I’m not worried about production till the last couple weeks, any moves do you see to be made there? Thanks again man!

@PED Inc: Thanks so much man, thanks for reading! Damnnnn, yeah Duffy and Bundy as adds! Nice! I think Musgrove over Skaggs is the move I would make. They seem intent on getting Musgrove into the full starter’s innings and Skaggs kinda worries me that there could be a TJ dropoff by the end. Snell as a shutdown candidate and Paxtan has been so inconsistent… Yeah I think Musgrove is my only one given that scenario

I have to put Duffy higher. If we are going with performance and not Upside Duffy is near Top 10 For Me…. And Matt Moore might not feel up the Stat line but if you consider QS and consistency he has been an easy top 30 for me and had he playing somewhere other than Tampa his W L record would be better that said look at the Bum. 10 wins in 18 QS low 2 Era… I guess that doesn’t mean you get Ws always good read none the less

@Dnut Eastwood: Matt Moore top 30?!?!??!! Cmon haha. His Ks are down and WHIP is still high. I’m not ranking for QS, so blah consistency with los Ks gets a pretty big hit in 5 cat roto terms. I don’t quite get your Duffy point, but yeah I could see being a little higher, I still worry a little bit about how he can finish

@Ante GALIC: What’s up man?! Really your first one?! I guess the season has flown by, thanks for reading!

We talk Keon on the Pod! RBI single to start it off tonight! I’ll rub my Keon blowup doll for us!

Married life is great, 1 week away from 1 yr anniversary! Hmmmm. Matz hopefully you can sell high as shutdown remains a concern. Bundy is amazzzzzing, but I dunno if Shoe could get enough buzz, how about Matz and Bundy for either a or b? I think it would be hard to pass on if I was their owner if they needed starters…

I’m in a league that keeps 6, in rds 1-6 of the draft every year. My league is H2H points, which is skewed towards elite SPs. My position player keepers are outstanding…. Trout, Rizzo, Arenado. I want to keep 3 SP as well, so I need to start evaluating which guys have the best “stuff”.

1 ) Where can I find reliable information about a pitcher’s arsenal?

2) I realize its tough to project like this, but do you see any of these guys being a top10 pitcher next year or beyond?

If you scroll down to “Pitch Type” you can see how often they throw pitches, and how hard. Then a few boxes down to “pitch values”, you can see how successful the pitches have been using the Fangraphs metric, so you can see his fastball and slider have been better, but his change-up not nearly as good. Then you love to see in his arsenal he is throwing a smidge less changeups and more sliders, so he adapts to what works.

2. Walker, Taillon and Fulmer I don’t think so. Snell could in 2-3 years, love his stuff, same with Bundy. Salazar was kinda close at points this year and Duffy will be closest next year.

For GameScore+, I know its a scale of .5 to .1, but how are they decided? Like, in the samples in the post linked when it was first introduced, you had ground outs that were .3, .2, .5, etc. How is that determined?

@Branta: Great question, by me and it’s subjective haha. I know ESPN now has batted ball data and they do this now (subjectively as well, just someone marking everything – I’ve heard them mention this on their podcast), but it’s not free or available. So like, Odor got a 0.1 and a 0.2 I think on his singles, both bloops

@John: Hah “DL forever”… Ummm, yeah Ervin has been solid, but agree he’s a drop for Hill coming off DL, then I would indeed take Musgrove over Moore, I think similar stats in ERA and Ks while Musgrove will have a muchhhhhh better WHIP

@Rondo: So just so I’m being sure I’m answering right, you’re saying which 3 IN the playoffs? Or which 3 UNTIL the playoffs? I’ll answer which 3 in the playoffs I like best, I think that’s what you’re looking for :)

Thoughts on Yordano for the rest of the season? Waiver wire in my league is bare bones. I’m currently carrying four closers (herrera, familia, dyson, and osuna) but have salazar on the DL and its 45 innings minimum for the week. Was tempted to offer the trade of osuna and yelich for lindor, since i need MI help and then pick up Ventura. Just not sure if that’s a wise move or not.

@keith: @Scott: Ugh, I just can’t win with Cueto! I get yelled at for ranking him too low and now too high haha. I defffff think with pitching inconsistency he HAS to stay top 25.

Price I can see the case for. Those 3 straight 10 K games then bleh. I just think the talent, the metrics saying he’s been a smidge unlucky, and K upside still has him in that range, but of course I am thinking he finishes strong

@Hugman: What’s wrong with that rank? I’m not gonna let his last start against the Braves cloud me too much. Before that blow up, previous 14 starts, 2.84 ERA 83 K in 92 IP. And he said he had a little leg strengthening issue he sorted out through his first few bad starts there. Of course players always have excuses for everything haha.

@JB Gilpin: I’m just a bitter Cards fan. I read an article early on when he was struggling that said his spin rate and velocity and movement were all on par. So I thought he was a good buy low, but I just won’t ever go near him. Again. Maybe he’ll comment on this thread.

JB I’m in that crazy 10 team points league where pitchers rule (50 pts per win, -15 per loss ect). I’m in first but in a tight race with the second place owner and we keep flip flopping between 1st and 2nd. Both of us have made trades recently to tweak our pitching staff. Which team do you think has the better crew?

@Jedimasters: Any time! Well I think I saw that they’re gonna put Luke Weaver in the rotation first though. Both might be worth stashing in deepers but I dunno if they’ll have enough starts/.innings in the starts to do enough

Whats good JB? Checking in a day later than normal. Hope alls well in central NC. So what are your thoughts on Walker getting demoted? Didnt get a glowing review from his skipper, you think he makes it back up and looks like he did earlier this season or nah? He was on my DL, so he’s still stuck there, but I cant make any moves if I dont activate him. I did improve my closer situation since we last spoke but alas I gave up on Bregman to add Diaz from the wire, he was 0-for everything when I cut bait, and of course has started to hit since, but has been scooped up already, so no use over crying over spilt milk. We can only keep 4 players per season at their drafted value so i don’t know if he would have made the cut anyway with the other talent on my roster.

I have a guy thats interested in trading for Kimbrel and Dahl but he doesnt want to pay for them lol. He owns Lindor, Thor, Musgrave, Gausman, Hamilton. Would you make a deal there? Id have to dump Walker and he doesnt seem like he wants to move Thor at all, and hes hesitant on Lindor too. Any deal you’d offer there? Thanks as always. Roster is below:
SPN 12 team HTH 5×5 with OBP and QS daily moves and 4 keepers per season

@JB Gilpin: Yeah I am/was pretty athletic, but the old grey mare aint what she use to be lol. Quick question with the roster above, and the trade market seemingly stalled, would you drop Dahl or Choo for any of these arms? My SP’s have been meh lately and with this week and 3 more left I need to win my weekly match ups. Im in 3rd, top 4 go to the playoffs but theres about 6 of us in contention. Im losing this week 2-4-2 and could use a lil’ help with QS, ERA and WHIP. Manaea and Rodon both go tomorrow, Cobb is also out there as a DL stash.

@My Thread Count Is High: Def not dropping Dahl while this hot. I’m good losing Choo for a stream. Sorry I missed ya before Rodon’s start, I do like Manaea, he was OK, but def good streaming today or tomo

@JB Gilpin: No worries, thinking Choo is the drop. MY staff has been craptastic lately. Should I be concerned about Skaggs or Shoemaker? Manaea already got scooped up. What are your thoughts on Phelps, E-Rod and Rodon. Any of those guys worth Choo’s spot? Or would you drop any of my other arms for any of them?

@My Thread Count Is High: OK JB dropped Choo to stream(but if Sano’s elbow lands him on the DL I may have to add a bat back). For now though it seems like the cobbler’s workshop is a bit of a mess lol. So my question for ya is, Im in 3rd with 3 weeks until the playoffs(top 4 make it, any changes you’d suggest for this staff? I’m most concerned with Skaggs and Shoemaker but the following arms are the best of the waiver wire: Rodon, Manaea, E-Rod, and Pineda.