The 7 People WhoWill Elect the President

We've heard a lot bout the swing vote. So we went out and found it.

Jan 29, 2007

At this point, who's undecided? Of the approximately 160 million registered voters in America . . . probably less than six million who are likely to vote. And maybe less than 2.5 million who actually live in the seventeen or so closely contested states where their votes will make a difference. Many of those states will be decided by what happens in a few counties. Working closely with pollsters, academics, and local reporters, we identified seven of those tipping-point counties in tipping-point states, and in them we found seven voters typical of the kinds of people the parties think are up for grabs there. These are the ones. In one sense, they are merely representative, but in another sense—given how few voters are left to persuade in any critical precinct in any critical state—these are the ones.

Wisconsin was very close in 2000 (Gore by 0.2 points), but with Kerry running well in the Democratic strongholds of Milwaukee and Madison, Bush will need to win the more conservative though economically sputtering Green Bay area by a large margin to carry the state.

A lot of people at the mill go to Disney World for vacation. We went right after 9/11, and my wife and daughter were just falling all over themselves because it was so empty. Around town, I hear more talk from Republicans than Democrats. For many, no matter what a Republican says, he's right. Okay, perhaps Republicans are a little more right than wrong. Six months ago, I would have voted for President Bush, but now I'm not so sure. I was all for the war, but I thought there would be a clear plan. You believe what the government is telling you. Perhaps I was naive. Then again, I'm not so sure Kerry is the answer. I'm scared of changing leaders before things are done.

Once solidly Republican, this sprawling suburb has tilted Democratic, as affluent whites have left and African-Americans have moved in. Estimates are that Kerry must win here by 6 points to take the state; Bush hopes to counter by convincing moderate Catholics to vote their values.

Mike's mother lives across the street from us in the house in which he grew up. And we have a Catholic school just six doors down, where Mike went and where our children go now. It's weird because the neighborhood feels like it's out of the 1950s, which can make it hard because Mike and I tend to be a bit less conservative on some issues than other folks. I'm not a big fan of Bush at all, and I'm not a big supporter of the war. But he did give us some tax relief, and we got the child tax credit, which was very nice. It's not enough to make me want to vote for him, but it's the same with Kerry. A lot of this is just gut feeling. And my gut feeling right now is not great on either of them.

Gore lost Ohio (by 3.5 points) by failing to win enough conservative Democrats and independents in the central and southeastern parts of the state. Kerry's ability to convince these voters that he's conservative enough—Gore wasn't; Clinton was—could decide the fate of the state.

We get the gardening from my father. He was in the military, like my brother. So while I don't necessarily believe in the reasons we went to war, I support the troops. They've been giving Bush a hard time in terms of the 9/11 Commission and the transfer of power, and I think it's valid, because we should have an exit strategy. But I'm concerned about changing during wartime. Kerry would have to learn from scratch. When my brother left to serve in Iraq, we sent him off with a big family gathering at my house. We e-mail each other all the time. Matter of fact, I just got an e-mail from him the other day wondering if everybody's taking care of his grass at home.

Historically, Philadelphia's northern suburbs have voted Republican, offsetting Democratic strengths in Philly and Pittsburgh. But an influx of immigrants and middle-class liberals has altered the conservative slant. Bucks could help decide the state, as it did for Gore in 2000.

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We've got quite a houseful: three dogs, three cats, and two kids. Paige is five, and the baby, Danielle, is sixteen months. When I tell people that I'm undecided, they almost always shoot back in disbelief, "You haven't decided?" I'm suspicious nothing will change. My husband and I are both self-employed, so the economy comes first. But it's hard to say that national security is second. I find myself questioning whether I hold Bush responsible for the war. But I don't think Kerry is really telling me anything. It's all spin. In the last few years, voting has felt like deciding between the lesser of two evils, and I hate feeling that way. The last time I liked a candidate, I voted for Perot.

While often registered as Democrats, the county's burgeoning Hispanic community tends to lean conservative on military and family issues, placing it in the political crossfire in a state that went to Gore by 366 votes in 2000.

I used to work in the uranium mines in a town called Grants, and I started hunting when I lived over there. Now I go deer or elk hunting at least once a year. My grandson comes. He's gone since he was young and stays in camp with my wife. The biggest thing I worry about is health care for my family, because everybody's sick. My wife's disabled; she had a stroke. And then my son who lives with me, he has asthma. And I'm a diabetic, and I take a bunch of pills myself. The prices of drugs and visiting the doctor just keep going up. I'd like to see a different president with different ideas, but I don't know that Kerry's the one. I don't want to go from bad to worse.

Despite a large Republican registration advantage, a libertarian streak pushed the county to Gore (and helped him barely win the state) in 2000. This year, the Republican loyalty of the fiscally conservative is also in doubt.

I'm kinda scared. I like Bush, only he's such a liar to me. I don't trust him. I don't like how they were talking about WMD and there were none found. And I think the war was all planned, even before 9/11. But I don't really want to change when we are right in the middle of a war. Plus, just because Kerry was in the service doesn't mean that he knows what to do once in office. It's just a scary situation for me. My husband sells to the Army, and the people that he talks to said the draft's coming and it's coming in the spring. Our son just turned sixteen. He's a lineman, trying to make it to varsity. And I'm just afraid for my son because he's the ripe age.

Once a Republican stronghold, Florida has seen an influx of young families and immigrants that has changed its predictability. A growing population of Puerto Rican professionals helped Gore take the county; two years later, they gave a push to Republican Jeb Bush for governor.

I love to be in my backyard. When I lived in Puerto Rico, I hated the water. But now, I just love it. On Saturdays, I go to my backyard, swim, take in sun, barbecue. Lately, both candidates have been visiting the area, trying to be with the Hispanic community. But for me, they're both just flirting. There's no substance. I just don't identify with Kerry. It's the same with Bush, but at least he's a leader. He's got guts. I like the Democratic platform, but I'm not so sure about Kerry. He's a little bit weak for me. It's the opposite with Jeb Bush. He speaks Spanish perfectly. He understands the needs of the Hispanic community. He always, always tries to take care of us. [Orange County, Florida 2000 Results: Bush 48% Gore 50%]

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