My friends the polar vortex collapse is predicted to the first 10 days of January.. anyone can tell what can happen with this big event? Thank you so much!

Quoting: Luisport

Think of the polar vortex like a cylinder full of cold air. If you cut the cylinder in half and move one half away from the other, the cold air will sink. If you have displaced parts of the stratosphere, the cold air that is held in the polar vortex will be released and flow down into lower latitudes. If the PV is displaced enough, it may collapse altogether, leading to an icebox solution over parts of the world.

My friends the polar vortex collapse is predicted to the first 10 days of January.. anyone can tell what can happen with this big event? Thank you so much!

Quoting: Luisport

stormy Cumulonimbus Mensagens: 4,166 There for the first 8-10 days of January the models are in agreement with an episode of disintegration of the polar vortex, inducing an AO - it is possible that in January, especially after the first week, one month is very active and variable, with several episodes of various types of weather. [link to www.meteopt.com]

My friends the polar vortex collapse is predicted to the first 10 days of January.. anyone can tell what can happen with this big event? Thank you so much!

Quoting: Luisport

Think of the polar vortex like a cylinder full of cold air. If you cut the cylinder in half and move one half away from the other, the cold air will sink. If you have displaced parts of the stratosphere, the cold air that is held in the polar vortex will be released and flow down into lower latitudes. If the PV is displaced enough, it may collapse altogether, leading to an icebox solution over parts of the world.

Sept. 23, 2012 – A University of Utah study suggests something amazing: Periodic changes in winds 15 to 30 miles high in the stratosphere influence the seas by striking a vulnerable “Achilles heel” in the North Atlantic and changing mile-deep ocean circulation patterns, which in turn affect Earth’s climate.

A Vulnerable Soft Spot in the North Atlantic“The North Atlantic is particularly important for global ocean circulation, and therefore for climate worldwide,” Reichler says. “In a region south of Greenland, which is called the downwelling region, water can get cold and salty enough – and thus dense enough – so the water starts sinking.”

It is Earth’s most important region of seawater downwelling, he adds. That sinking of cold, salty water “drives the three-dimensional oceanic conveyor belt circulation. What happens in the Atlantic also affects the other oceans.”

Reichler continues: “This area where downwelling occurs is quite susceptible to cooling or warming from the troposphere. If the water is close to becoming heavy enough to sink, then even small additional amounts of heating or cooling from the atmosphere may be imported to the ocean and either trigger downwelling events or delay them.”

Because of that sensitivity, Reichler calls the sea south of Greenland “the Achilles heel of the North Atlantic.”

The oil disaster weakened the loop current and in turnweakened the gulf stream, this polar vortex collapsecould be the straw that breaks the camels back, in otherwords completely stop the gulf stream........The beginning of the new Ice Age [link to arctic-news.blogspot.nl]

The computer models forecast a low temperature between -34ºC to -45ºC, still uncertain and difficult to predict exactly. But the absolute Icelandic record stands at -38ºC from 1918.temperature in Reykjavik for 1938 is still falling? Recently it dropped by almost 1.8°C

Description Even as the fog receded in most parts of Uttar Pradesh Monday, 26 people have died in the last 24 hours because of the extreme cold, officials said. The deaths were reported from Basti (6), Jaunpur (4), Ballia (4), Mirzapur (2), Varanasi, Bhadohi and Chandauli (1 each). Dense fog has also caused road accidents, in which as many as six have died. With mercury falling below 11 degrees Celsius in the day, and with minimum temperature falling below four degrees Celsius, the district magistrate of Lucknow has ordered closure of all schools and colleges in the state capital till January 5. Timings for class 11 and 12 have also been revised, and schools are set to open at 10 a.m. Met director J.P. Gupta said conditions would not improve in the coming week. Fog and bitter cold would continue in most parts of the state. Fog also disrupted train schedules, and more than 50 trains were running late Monday morning. All major trains from the union capital Delhi to Lucknow were running late by several hours. The Shatabdi Express was running late by five hours, while the Lucknow Mail was running late by three hours, officials said. (Average journey time by Shatabdi is six hours, 22 minutes.) Long-distance trains were running late by several hours and the Barauni Express had to be cancelled by the Northern Railways. Four flights were cancelled Sunday evening as the visibility at the Chaudhary Charan Singh Amausi airport did not improve. Many flight passengers hoped that the weather would improve, but were in for disappointment as major flyers like Jet Airways and Indigo said they would not be able to fly the late evening flights due to poor visibility. [link to hisz.rsoe.hu]

Swedish boffins: An ICE AGE is coming, only CO2 can save us.A group of Swedish scientists at the University of Gothenburg have published a paper in which they argue that spreading peatlands are inexorably driving planet Earth into its next ice age, and the only thing holding back catastrophe is humanity's hotly debated atmospheric carbon emissions.

"We are probably entering a new ice age right now. However, we're not noticing it due to the effects of carbon dioxide," says Professor of Physical Geography Lars Franzén, from the Department of Earth Sciences at Gothenburg uni.Franzén and his colleagues have examined various scenarios for the peatlands of Sweden, which are a continually expanding "dynamic landscape element". According to the scientists:

Peatlands grow in height and spread across their surroundings by waterlogging woodlands. They are also one of the biggest terrestrial sinks of atmospheric carbon dioxide. Each year, around 20 grams of carbon are absorbed by every square metre of peatland.The scientists have calculated that the potential is there for Swedish peatlands to triple in extent, enormously increasing their carbon sink effect. By extrapolating to include the rest of the world's high-latitude temperate areas - the parts of the globe where peatland can expand as it does in Sweden - they project the creation of an extremely powerful carbon sink. They theorise that this is the mechanism which tends to force the Earth back into prolonged ice ages after each relatively brief "interglacial" warm period.

"Carbon sequestration in peatland may be one of the main reasons why ice age conditions have occurred time after time," says Franzén.

With no other factors in play, the time is about right for the present interglacial to end and the next ice age to come on. Indeed, Franzén and his crew think it has barely been staved off by human activity:

The researchers believe that the Little Ice Age of the 16th to 18th centuries may have been halted as a result of human activity. Increased felling of woodlands and growing areas of agricultural land, combined with the early stages of industrialisation, resulted in increased emissions of carbon dioxide which probably slowed down, or even reversed, the cooling trend.

Other scientists have attributed the Little Ice Age to a quiet period in the Sun's activity: others say it was purely a local effect in Europe, though that theory has lately been disproved by research in Antarctica.

In any case, the scientists assess that if it weren't for human activity such as carbon emissions, we could expect a new ice era in short order. They write:

Thus, on a global scale, carbon sequestration in peatlands may have had important climate cooling effects towards the ends of previous interglacials ... It cannot be ruled out that similar effects would be seen in a hypothetical Holocene lacking human presence.It's probably worth noting that the great physicist Freeman Dyson long ago suggested that only relatively small amounts of new peatland would be enough to sequestrate colossal amounts of CO2 from the air. Other scientists have noted in recent times that brief warming spells like that observed at the end of the 20th century appear to have occurred towards the end of previous interglacial periods - just before the glaciers returned.

If Franzén and his team are right, the big chill is now under way, and is only just being held off by increasing human carbon emissions - perhaps explaining why temperatures have been merely flat for the last 15 years or so, rather than descending. [link to www.theregister.co.uk]

[link to earthobservatory.nasa.gov] Long-Term Global Warming Trend Continues January 16, 2013...The map ... depicts temperature anomalies, or changes, by region in 2012; it does not show absolute temperature. Reds and blues show how much warmer or cooler each area was in 2012 compared to an averaged base period from 1951–1980: [link to eoimages.gsfc.nasa.gov] The line plot above shows yearly temperature anomalies from 1880 to 2011 as recorded by NASA GISS, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Climatic Data Center, the Japanese Meteorological Agency, and the Met Office Hadley Centre in the United Kingdom. All four institutions tally temperature data from stations around the world and make independent judgments about whether the year was warm or cool compared to other years. Though there are minor variations from year to year, all four records show peaks and valleys in sync with each other. All show rapid warming in the past few decades, and all show the last decade as the warmest.Scientists emphasize that weather patterns cause fluctuations in average temperatures from year to year, but the continued increase in greenhouse gas levels in the atmosphere assures that there will be a long-term rise in global temperatures. Each individual year will not necessarily be warmer than the previous year, but scientists expect each decade to be warmer than the previous decade...“The U.S. temperatures in the summer of 2012 are an example of a new trend of outlying seasonal extremes that are warmer than the hottest seasonal temperatures of the mid-20th century,” NASA GISS director James E. Hansen said. “The climate dice are now loaded. Some seasons still will be cooler than the long-term average, but the perceptive person should notice that the frequency of unusually warm extremes is increasing. It is the extremes that have the most impact on people and other life on the planet.”

I do not believe in "Man Made Climate Change" but I do believe in "Climate Change"

I think a lot of people have a lot to gain by blaming humans and CO2.

I do however think there are cycles, we did start warming. I think we did have a period of "Global Warming" the stats show this to be true. Then as the atmosphere warmed, ice melted, the ice that melted ran into the oceans. The oceans have a huge impact on our climate, so with all this added frigid water from the ice melting, it is now causing a cooling effect.

Quoting: *Evan*

we had a warming since the last great ice age. there have been swings up and down.not saying we are going into a great ice age. but the oceans have been heated up as well by volcanoes under the water. pollution is different than global warming and cities and concrete and exhaust do make things warmer. as far as dry conditions the Antarctic is about as dry as it gets.

Dr. Masters is a major douchebag. It seems that whenever we have a major heat wave, he goes on fear mongering rant over how we should cut down CO2. Barely says a peep about record colds other than blame it on global warming anyway. I've visited his blog for a long time and there are too many libtards fear mongering over CO2 causing catastrophic events when they do not really do that.

This is one of my very favorite topics, thanks for this thread. I think from the Vostok Lake ice core charts, we can see a pattern that puts our current time period smack at the expected beginning of another Great Ice Age. I think "AGW" people are mis-using the data from recent past (like 100-500 years - basically nothing from a global climactic scale standpoint) to make their points. The pattern is not too hard to see if you are viewing enough centuries of data. Unable to post pics so I can't post it but it's on Wikipedia search Vostok Lake Ice Core chart.