But Edgin has impressed in his first 14.0 innings with the Mets. He already has 22 strikeouts — that’s 14.1 K/9 — and a 3.31 FIP and 2.27 xFIP that suggest he’s been significantly better than his ERA. Glen Perkins was in a similar spot early in his 2012 season. Edgin’s track record is, of course, not anywhere near as long as Perkins’s, but his ability to strike out opponents is more likely than not to make him stick as a viable late-inning option in the big leagues.

I could write a lot more about this, but basically: Relievers who strike out ton of dudes tend to be good. For example: Bobby Parnell strikes out about a batter per inning and has a 3.26 ERA over the last three seasons. Between 2007 and 2012, there were 20 relievers who struck out more than a batter per inning and had below-average ERAs, and 71 who struck out a batter per inning and had above-average ERAs. So strikeout rate alone doesn’t get it done, but it’s a pretty good indicator that a pitcher may be successful. Plus our man Edgin struck out more than a batter per inning in the minors, so he’s not striking out guys at a rate way over his head. If Edgin can strikeout more than a batter per inning (maybe) and be left-handed (yes), the Mets have another useful reliever. Giving them, like, two.

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One response to “Edgin towards a better bullpen”

I’m wondering what the approach to rebuilding the pen will be this offseason. The cheap free agent approach didn’t work, but the other two basic options are high end free agents, or build from within. Given the way Alderson has gone about every other aspect of building a roster it wouldn’t surprise me if Elvin Ramirez, Mejia, Beato, Familia, Carson and Hefner end up getting a lot of the innings setting up for fat Frank. A six pack of loogys off the scrap heap on spring training invites may be about all they sign from outside.