Turner vote of confidence always subject to a recall

Dean Spanos says it is “ridiculous” to speculate on Norv Turner's job security. A.J. Smith has called it “foolish.”

So place the probability of the Chargers retaining their head coach at about 85 percent.

Despite the resolute remarks emanating from Murphy Canyon Road this week, few NFL promises are absolute and unconditional, especially in midseason, particularly when they involve votes of confidence.

Circumstances change. Executives exaggerate. Football people have a remarkable capacity to lie without remorse, and a vested interest in changing the subject when a coach is under duress. Depending on the specific situation, a vote of confidence can be entirely sincere or deliberate deception.

“I don't know that anybody would want – what do they call it? – a vote of confidence,” Cincinnati Bengals coach Marvin Lewis said last month. “Those things don't go very well, usually. Anytime I've seen one of those, they don't go well. I'd prefer not to have one.”

The vote of confidence has become such a contrary indicator of intent that a Google search for the phrase “dreaded vote of confidence” yielded 16,700 results Friday afternoon. Thus while we listen carefully to what the Chargers say, we would be well-advised to reserve judgment until we see what they actually do.

As Ronald Reagan so succinctly said: “Trust, but verify.”

Any statement that is made at the 4-6 stage of a 16-game season can easily be declared inoperative six weeks hence. It's ridiculous, really, to expect that any personnel positions a football team takes in November would be binding in January. And it's equally ridiculous to call the question “ridiculous” when the very owner characterizing said question has already fired a coach who finished 14-2, and this just 26 days after announcing his retention. (To say nothing of the five-day flip-flop the front office performed in firing defensive coordinator Ted Cottrell last month.)

This does not, repeat NOT, mean Norv Turner's days are now numbered at about 37. Nor, repeat NOR, does it mean Turner's job performance is deserving of dismissal. It says here that Turner earned himself at least one mulligan by taking a banged-up Bolts team to the AFC Championship Game last season, and that this year's shortfall is primarily the product of injuries rather than leadership.

Yet these situations are always fluid – as Marty Schottenheimer's firing reaffirmed in 2007 – and this Chargers' season has (at least) six more games to go. A lot of things can still happen, and not all of them are good.

What happens if the bottom falls out, or if Turner should lose his locker room? Would he continue to receive the same unequivocal support from his bosses were the Chargers to stumble to, say, a 6-10 finish? This much remains to be seen, even though it has already been asserted.

Much as we might wish to take people at their word, that's not always the percentage play or the practical reality in pro football. The business is conducted so publicly, and the public's interest is so keen, that for upper management to discuss a coach's future frankly is almost inherently counterproductive.