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Re: 3 Bold Predictions for 2011

Originally Posted by 757690

Phillips, even with his injury late in the year, improved his WAR from 3 to 4 last year. Either has been trending downward from 3.4 to 2.7 to 2.2 for last year, and that has been a result of both his offense and his defense.

Also, there were 7 above average 2B in the majors last year. There were 7 impact bats who can play outfield in the NL West last year.

Im really not a huge fan of WAR comparisons. IMO they are too skewed towards the defensive end of the game. When you have a good defensive player at a position it will inflate his WAR when comparing it to other players.

There is no doubt that Either has a better bat than Phillips. And if you move Either to LF his defense won't be as big of a hindrance as it was out in RF. I also think its much easier to find a replaceable 2b than it is to find an impact bat. Phillips is an enigma to me. Nice pop for a 2b, great D, not good against RHP, and doesn't carry a good OBP. If you were able to replace Phillips with a guy who wasn't as good on D, didn't have as much power, but had a better OBP it may just fit the lineup better. It may allow you to drop Stubbs in the lineup to take advantage of his power.

Its easy to make comparisons based upon isloating two players. But the reality is its how each player fits into the grand scheme of the team. IMO Either in LF + Valakia/Frazier/etc. at 2B is better than Gomes in LF and Phillips at 2b.

Re: 3 Bold Predictions for 2011

A lot of these predictions are very similar which would make them not so bold IMO. Gave my Reds predictions earlier (at least one is pretty bold I'd say), Here are some for the rest of baseball with an eye on boldness:

AL
1. Adam Dunn leads the AL in HR and RBI and wins the MVP with the White Sox winning the Central.

2. Trevor Cahill wins the AL Cy Young award and leads the A's to the AL West title and ultimately an appearance in the World Series.

3. Derek Jeter quiets his critics with a huge comeback season and wins the AL Batting Title with an average above .350

NL

1. Seth Smith makes a Cargo like improvement in 2011 and teams with Cargo and Tulo as top 10 guys for the MVP award and the Rockies run away with the NL West and best record in the NL.

2. The Cardinals are out of the race by the All Star break and not only is Carpenter dealt at the deadline, but Pujols relents with his threat to void any trade and is dealt to an AL team and the Cards ride the young acquisitions to the best record in the NL in September.

3. The New York Mets fail to win 60 games.

World Series Champ - The Colorado Rockies.

"All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS

Re: 3 Bold Predictions for 2011

Oops, wrong year.

The widow is gathering nettles for her children's dinner; a perfumed seigneur, delicately lounging in the Oeil de Boeuf, hath an alchemy whereby he will extract the third nettle and call it rent. ~ Carlyle

Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

Re: 3 Bold Predictions for 2011

1. The Brewers and Cardinals are both derailed by injuries, poor defense, and the circus that becomes Fielder's and Pujols' contract situations.

2. The Reds win less games than last year, and still take the division before getting handled in the first round of the playoffs by a team with superior starting pitching.

3. The Phillies do NOT win the NL East. Their age and injuries keep them from being the regular season juggernaut most expect, and the "Four Aces" theory goes out the window when Oswalt and Lee have back trouble and prove to be human.

I spent the majority of this thread making fun of the rest of you. Then I stumbled upon this.

Re: 3 Bold Predictions for 2011

Originally Posted by medford

1) Bruce jumps out to a hot start, and makes the All Star team. Slows a bit as the season wears on, but still tops 35 homers and a .900 OPS.

2) Aroldis Chapman hits 107 on a juiced up scoreboard radar reading sometime in June or July. A segment of "The art of the game" with Chris Welsh is lated taped where Arolids explains his technique. Chris Carpentar's son is forced to watch.

3) Pujols is traded to the Yankees in by the trading deadline.

1) not exactly true, but he did get the all star bid, 35 homers is w/n range, don't know about the OPS, haven't paid much attention lately, I assume he's not going to make that mark.

2) If a tree falls in the forest and no one is around, does Chris Carpenter complain about the lack of living space for squirrels, birds and his SS's glove selection?

Re: 3 Bold Predictions for 2011

I did predict Arizona would win the NL West, so I guess this blind squirrel found at least one nut.

Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

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