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FEI Week 3: Comebacks

by Brian Fremeau

Alabama passed its first big test of the 2013 season with a 49-42 victory over Texas A&M in College Station on Saturday. There aren’t many more major tests ahead. Alabama’s regular season undefeated win likelihood jumped up to 52.4 percent according to FEI. The Crimson Tide have individual game win likelihoods in excess of 90 percent in eight of their remaining 10 games, and the other two (Mississippi and LSU) are home games. Alabama appears to be well on its way to an SEC West championship and a national championship game appearance.

There are certainly some defensive concerns that need to be corrected. The Crimson Tide had their worst defensive game splits of the Nick Saban era on Saturday, surrendering 22.5 points in net scoring differential on that side of the ball. (It would have been worse if the Crimson Tide defense hadn’t chipped in a defensive score of their own on a third quarter interception return.) Last year’s negative-17.7 point defensive game split against Johnny Football and Texas A&M was the third-worst of the Nick Saban era. We will be posting opponent-adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency data beginning with the Week 7 FEI ratings, and I do expect that Alabama’s performance against the Aggies will look better through that opponent-adjusted lens.

Alabama’s offense played well, led by an explosive passing attack (16.7 yards per completion) and a ground game that pounded out 6.3 yards per rush. The Crimson Tide scored touchdowns on four straight drives after spotting A&M a 14-0 lead, a deficit that was flipped into a 28-14 lead for Alabama with ruthless efficiency. By halftime, it was easy to forget that Alabama had struggled out of the gate and spotted a double-digit lead.

Saturday was only the second two-touchdown deficit erased by Alabama since 2007. The only other time Alabama won a game in which it faced a 14-point deficit or more at some point was their 2009 victory over Auburn. Alabama spotted Auburn a two touchdown lead early in that game, tied it back up at halftime, then fell behind again in the second half before edging out the Tigers 26-21 with a score on the Crimson Tide’s final drive in regulation. It was the second-closest call in Nick Saban’s first championship season in Tuscaloosa.

On the flip side of the double-digit comeback is Texas A&M, of course. Since 2007, the Aggies have given up a 14-point lead and lost the game seven times, more than any other team in college football. Texas A&M has given up a 10-point lead and gone on to the lose the game 14 times since the start of the 2007 season, four more occasions than any other FBS team. The Aggies only have four double-digit comeback wins of their own in the same span.

Out of 4437 FBS vs. FBS games played since the start of the 2007 season, there have been 293 double-digit deficit comeback victories –- 6.6 percent of wins have featured a double-digit comeback. The tables below identify the teams that have had the most net success and the most net failures in double-digit comebacks since 2007.

Net Success In Double-Digit Comebacks Since 2007

Team

Games

FBSWins

FBSLoss

10+ PointComebacks

Opp 10+ PointComebacks

NetComebacks

Houston

74

45

29

11

2

+9

Texas

81

58

23

8

0

+8

LSU

79

62

17

10

2

+8

Oregon

78

64

14

7

0

+7

Utah

76

53

23

8

1

+7

Florida State

75

49

26

9

3

+6

Middle Tennessee

73

36

37

7

2

+5

Navy

73

44

27

8

3

+5

Virginia Tech

79

57

22

9

4

+5

Michigan State

78

50

28

9

4

+5

Texas Tech

72

45

27

9

4

+5

Net Failures In Double-Digit Comebacks Since 2007

Team

Games

FBSWins

FBSLoss

10+ PointComebacks

Opp 10+ PointComebacks

NetComebacks

Texas A&M

75

41

34

4

14

-10

North Texas

73

17

56

3

10

-7

SMU

74

28

46

3

9

-6

UTEP

72

25

47

3

9

-6

Army

69

19

50

2

8

-6

Indiana

69

19

50

2

8

-6

Southern Miss.

77

37

40

3

8

-5

Western Kentucky

59

16

43

3

8

-5

Memphis

71

18

53

3

8

-5

Akron

70

12

58

3

8

-5

Purdue

72

29

43

2

7

-5

Notre Dame

79

46

33

2

7

-5

Kent State

70

27

43

2

7

-5

A few other interesting notes about double-digit comebacks:

There were eight double-digit comebacks this past weekend. Five of the teams listed in the Failures tables above were involved in one of those eight games: Texas A&M (loss), Purdue (loss), Western Kentucky (loss), Notre Dame (win), and North Texas (win).

Of the 119 teams that have been playing FBS football since the start of the 2007 season, Boise State is the only one that has not recorded a double-digit comeback victory in that span. The Broncos have given up two double-digit comeback victories. Of course, the Broncos also have the best record among FBS teams in that span (69-9) and they haven't fallen behind by two scores very often.

Texas A&M has been involved in the most double-digit comeback victory games since 2007 (18). Of the seven other teams that have been involved in at least 15 double-digit comeback games since 2007, only two have won more of those than their opponents: Rutgers (9 wins, 7 losses) and Fresno State (9 wins, 6 losses).

Among teams that have been playing FBS games since 2007, the following teams have been involved in the fewest number of double-digit comebacks: Boise State (0 wins, 2 losses), Miami-OH (2 wins, 1 loss), Tennessee (1 win, 2 losses), USC (1 win, 3 losses), Florida (1 win, 3 losses), New Mexico State (1 win, 3 losses), and Mississippi State (1 win, 3 losses).

FEI Week 3 Top 25

The Fremeau Efficiency Index (FEI) rewards playing well against good teams, win or lose, and punishes losing to poor teams more harshly than it rewards defeating poor teams. FEI is drive-based and it is specifically engineered to measure the college game. FEI is the opponent-adjusted value of Game Efficiency (GE), a measurement of the success rate of a team scoring and preventing opponent scoring throughout the non-garbage-time possessions of a game. FEI represents a team's efficiency value over average.

Other definitions:

SOS: Strength of schedule, based on the likelihood of an elite team going undefeated against the given team's entire schedule.

FBS MW: Mean Wins, the average number of games a team with the given FEI rating would be expected to win against its entire schedule.

FBS RMW: Remaining Mean Wins, the average number of games a team with the given FEI rating would be expected to win against its remaining schedule.

These FEI ratings are a function of results of games played through September 14th. The ratings for all FBS teams can be found here. Program FEI (five-year weighted) ratings and other supplemental drive-based data can be found here.

I'll admit, I'm confused. Looking at the overall FEI rankings, UCLA has the 6th best game efficiency, and the 3rd best SOS. Yet they sit 27th in the total FEI rankings. If I remember correctly, rankings tend to include pre-season projections for the first few weeks. However, shouldn't they be down-weighted significantly when the on-field performance so drastically differs?

Two factors here. First, the preseason data is still a factor, and UCLA was projected at No.48 in FEI. Second, UCLA has the No.3 overall SOS when considering their whole schedule. They have the No.75 SOS to date. They have the No.1 SOS remaining. If UCLA impresses against that schedule, trust me, FEI will respond accordingly.

Thanks for the response. That clarifies things a lot. Do you think it would be useful to include a column showing a team's SOS to date? I think that would give the rankings some better context than showing the team's projected SOS for the season, something the rankings won't actually consider until the season is over.

Also, UCLA's SOS is 75? That seems a bit low given that one of their two games was a roadie at a legit BCS school, and I find it hard to believe there are too many other teams that can say the same about 50% of their games right now. Does SOS penalize for fewer games played?

My brother-in-law graduated Notre Dame. I graduated from North Texas. I'm pretty sure this is the first time in the history of sports journalism that both schools' football programs have been mentioned in the same sentence.