A new and deadly strain of bird flu that emerged in China in February but seems to have petered out in recent months could reappear later this year when the warm season comes to an end – and could spread internationally, scientists said on Monday.

[…]”The warm season has now begun in China, and only one new laboratory-confirmed case of H7N9 in human beings has been identified since May 8, 2013,” the researchers wrote in a study published in The Lancet medical journal.

But they added: “If H7N9 follows a similar pattern to H5N1, the epidemic could reappear in the autumn.”

[…]The team urged health officials and doctors not to be lulled into a false sense of security by the sharp drop off in H7N9 cases in recent weeks.

“Continued vigilance and sustained intensive control efforts against the virus are need to minimize risk of human infection, which is greater than previously recognized,” they said. [Source]

The rate of fatality in hospitalised H7N9 patients was 36 per cent, compared to 5 per cent to 20 per cent in swine flu patients and 65 per cent in H5N1 patients in China.

“One-third hospital fatality is not a small figure. Killing of chickens and market closures may still be needed when the epidemic reappears. I believe these measures should not be relaxed,” said Professor Gabriel Leung, director of the university’s Public Health Research Centre who announced the findings on Monday.

They warned watchdogs not to take comfort from a lull in new infections, as the virus may reappear in the autumn. [Source]