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Who Will Win Best New Artist at the VMAs Tonight?

In a few hours, the 2012 MTV VMAs will be broadcasting live from the Nokia Theater in Los Angeles. Each year, one of the show's biggest draws is its status-affirming Best New Artist category. In the past, we’ve seen names like Nirvana, Eminem, and Lady Gaga take home the coveted Moonman statue. This year's contenders are all strong possibilities, but who really has an edge over the others? Good question. We evaluated the nominees—Carly Rae Jepsen, Frank Ocean, fun., One Direction, The Wanted—and picked a winner, too. Place your bets.