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"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Thursday, May 24, 2012

Weak circulation is evident on Miami Radar near Key Biscayne, part of a much larger elongated trough in the mid-levels across far SE Florida. Other wise, some mdt-heavy rains already occurring near to over previously flooded areas from Tuesday near MIA, with some thunder possible most likely where there is YELLOW and further to the west with time by late afternoon. Another area of thunder could develop toward Ft. Pierce (or heavier rain) tonight.

TODAY: Show finally getting on the road as long advertised by all model guidance in regard to low pressure formation near SE Florida. Hence begins the "Big Guessing Game" through the weekend into early next week. As such, will not elaborate too in-depth on what this, that, and the other model suggests will occur since they each vary from run to run sometimes coming to agreement and other times diverging wildly. Overall, agreement has been SO FAR for a surface low to develop more notably later today near West Palm which then moves offshore toward the ENE-NE through Saturday before running into strong high pressure to the north, with a low center just off the Carolinas. From that point, the low retrogrades back SW ward toward the Florida NE Coast between Cape Canaveral - JAX with the latest runs showing the more northern point of JAX by Sunrise Sunday.

Otherwise, a good east coast sea breeze should establish late today , esp. toward the Cape and into mid-evening along the north side of the area of low pressure to the south. At the same time, a strong jet Streak of over 80 kts is forecast across South Central, placing Central in the right entrance and divergence aloft region which net results provides for rising motion. It appears that if parameters add up just right, some heavier storms could occur along the east coast toward or south of Vero Beach. This will only be dispelled as a precautionary measure at this conjecture since guidance is not pointing at rainfall in those areas at the time of this writing.

As of 10:15AM, the Hurricane Center was giving the storm at 20% chance of development within the next 24 hours, but surface forecasts and LDIS plots are showing tropical storm force winds already well east of the center. It should be noted though that these are from a pressure gradient due to the squeeze with high pressure to the east and not due to the depth of low pressure currently in place. In fact, for most of the life cycle of this system the storm force winds that are forecast with the low are to remain above ground level, with 'storm force gusts' in downdrafts from heavier rain and thunderstorm activity. Either way, would not at all surprise me if it is named Beryl if not over night tonight then by later Friday.

To note, there is much discussion regarding whether the system will be "named" tropically, although current implications are that either way makes not a difference, but implications are the storm could take on a very tropical presentation on radar and satellite imagery, although technically at best it appears it will be sub-tropical in nature due to continuous cold air entrainment (or filtering/drawing inward) aloft of cold air between 700-500 millibar heights (10-20,000 feet aloft). If so, it would not be a truly warm core low/system through the entire mid-levels of the atmosphere.

Latest GFS implies the surface low could be 'chasing' a cold pool aloft as it returns toward Florida on Saturday into Sunday. This makes future casts more difficult in regard to severe thunderstorm potential toward the east side of the state by Sunday/Monday afternoon given the latest agreed up track of the system. But, much more to be determined through the next 48 hours in regard to strength and track of the surface low, for IF the system is named, this will mean we will be hearing about "Beryl" or "Tedious Remnant Beryl" for at least a few days into early next week.

Perhaps the greatest impacts to Florida will be not as the low moves back into Florida (assuming it does) but AFTER it does so. Deep Cyclonic Flow around the system will drag deep moisture from the Caribbean northward on its East to SE flanks, with the low eventually ending up toward the Western Florida Panhandle and slowing down for a few days, before potentially being picked up by another low pressure trough approaching from the Central Plains.

EXTENDED: Under the assumptions of all of the above, we could be in for a repeat performance of a few weeks ago. Suggestions are that one way or the other regardless of what the system does, that this will be the case. That being, a deeper upper level trough situated along to east of the Mississippi River Valley Basin putting Florida in SW Florida aloft. This could me for some hot days ahead the last few days of May and the first week of June with storm chances in the cards each day.