For some reason, a long time ago someone decided that a win should count for three points, a draw for one, and a loss as zero. Margin of victory matters not one bit (except in case of tiebreaker). From a statistical point of view, the win/loss/draw system is human artifice. Some teams benefit from it (winning close games) and others do not.

Expected Points Per Match are calculated by creating a best fit line where Goal Differential is the X variable and Points Per Match are the Y variable.