Monday, March 16, 2015

Iraq Goes On The Offensive In Salahadin, Kirkuk and Anbar

At
the start of March 2015, the Iraqi government launched multiple offensives to
squeeze the Islamic State in the western and northern sections of the country.
The Tikrit operation was the largest to date, but there was a supporting move
by the Kurdish peshmerga into southern Kirkuk to cut off supply lines to
Salahaddin province, along with a sweep through eastern Anbar to try to secure
western Baghdad’s suburbs. IS responded with a huge wave of suicide car bombs,
which failed to stop the advances. There was little doubt that the government
was going to win in these fights, but the larger question is whether it can
hold onto its gains, something it has struggled with in the past.

There
were 133 security incidents reported in the press from March 8-14, 2015.
Baghdad province led for the week once again with 47 followed by 25 in
Salahaddin, 23 in Anbar, 20 in Ninewa, 12 in Kirkuk, four in Babil, and two in
Diyala. For the month there was an average of 21.7 incidents per day, which was
down from the 23.3 seen in February, and the 26.2 of January. Overall, attacks
have been declining since the summer.

The
second week of March saw 348 deaths and 656 wounded. The former consisted of 105
members of the Iraqi Security Forces (ISF), 1 sahwa, 26 Hashd al-Shaabi/Popular
Mobilization Units, 26 Peshmerga, and 190 civilians, while the latter was made
up of 151 ISF, 1 U.S. soldier, 8 sahwa, 11 Hashd, 88 Peshmerga, and 397
civilians. The American was wounded by a
ricochet while standing guard at the Besmaya training base in southern
Baghdad on March 11. Kirkuk had the most deaths with 103 due to a mass grave
being discovered there. After that was Baghdad with 88, Salahaddin with 70,
Anbar with 58, Ninewa with 18, Babil with eight, and Diyala with three. Casualties
for the week were roughly the same as the previous one. Like attacks, the
number of killed and injured has been heading downward as well. In February
there was an average of 61.7 deaths per day and 95.8 wounded. This month there
has been 50.5 fatalities and 88.7 injured per day.

Violence
In Iraq By Week Jun. 2014-2015

Date

Incidents

Dead

Wounded

Jun 1-7

228

612

1,020

Jun 8-14

234

1,889

890

Jun 15-21

177

804

755

Jun 22-28

207

740

800

Jun 29-30

59

127

236

JUN

905

4,172

3,701

Jul 1-7

203

526

651

Jul 8-14

214

577

628

Jul 15-21

230

444

1,009

Jul 22-28

224

589

801

Jul 29-31

66

163

230

JUL

937

2,299

3,319

Aug 1-8

270

1,122

885

Aug 9-14

180

710

1,152

Aug 15-21

150

731

499

Aug 22-28

156

523

798

Aug 29-31

59

125

289

AUG

815

3,211

3,623

Sep 1-7

169

616

751

Sep 8-14

168

467

731

Sep 15-21

170

625

794

Sep 22-28

157

396

576

Sep 29-30

49

126

287

SEP

713

2,230

3,139

Oct 1-7

175

456

687

Oct 8-14

189

560

880

Oct 15-21

159

499

780

Oct 22-28

160

346

596 + 1,230

Oct 29-31

72

574

227

OCT

755

2,434

3,170
+ 1,230

Nov 1-7

154

611

828

Nov 8-14

134

470

607

Nov 15-21

139

323

479

Nov 22-28

139

321

640

Nov 29-30

40

206

535

NOV

606

1,931

3,089

Dec 1-7

148

581

482

Dec 8-14

156

233 + 166

444 + 1,113

Dec 15-21

133

377

340

Dec 22-28

161

558

494

Dec 29-31

91

117

233

DEC

689

2,032

3,106

Jan 1-7

184

434

464

Jan 8-14

170

730

493

Jan 15-21

182

390

515

Jan 22-28

189

466

894

Jan 29-31

90

288

529

JAN

815

2,308

2,895

Feb 1-7

155

380

688

Feb 8-14

170

406

559

Feb 15-21

165

573

364

Feb 22-28

165

371

687 + 386

FEB

655

1,730

2,683

Mar 1-7

172

372

587

Mar 8-15

133

348

656

Violence
By Province In Iraq March 2015

Province

Mar 1-7

Mar 8-15

Anbar

24 Incidents

71 Killed: 22 ISF, 31 Sahwa, 18
Civilians

77 Wounded: 31 ISF, 46 Civilians

14 Shootings

1 IED

1 Suicide Car Bomb

3 Mortars

1 Rocket

23 Incidents

58 Killed: 34 ISF, 1 Sahwa, 23
Civilians

147 Wounded: 26 ISF, 8 Sahwa, 113
Civilians

7 Shootings

1 IED

24 Suicide Car Bombs

1 Rocket

3 Mortars

Babil

5 Incidents

8 Killed: 1 Hashd, 7 Civilians

13 Wounded: 2 Hashd, 11 Civilians

1 Shooting

3 IEDs

1 Sticky Bomb

4 Incidents

8 Killed: 1 ISF, 7 Civilians

33 Wounded: 4 ISF, 29 Civilians

4 IEDs

1 Car Bomb

Baghdad

56 Incidents

75 Killed: 7 ISF, 4 Hashd, 5
Sahwa, 59 Civilians

229 Wounded: 16 ISF, 13 Sahwa, 16
Hashd, 184 Civilians

15 Shootings

30 IEDs

6 Sticky Bombs

1 Car Bomb

3 Mortars

2 Rockets

47 Incidents

88 Killed: 5 ISF, 83 Civilians

245 Wounded: 10 ISF, 1 US Soldier,
234 Civilians

15 Shootings

25 IEDs

4 Sticky Bombs

2 Car Bombs

1 Mortar

Basra

5 Incidents

4 Killed: 4 Civilians

3 Shootings

1 Sticky Bomb

-

Diyala

13 Incidents

17 Killed: 3 Hashd, 14 Civilians

23 Wounded: 3 ISF, 4 Hashd, 16
Civilians

6 Shootings

3 IEDs

3 Sticky Bombs

1 Car Bomb

2 Incidents

3 Killed: 2 ISF, 1 Civilian

3 Wounded: 3 ISF

1 Shooting

1 IED

Kirkuk

1 Incident

1 Killed: 1 ISF

1 Shooting

12 Incidents

103 Killed: 1 ISF, 23 Hashd, 26
Peshmerga, 53 Civilians

105 Wounded: 10 ISF, 5 Hashd, 87
Peshmerga, 3 Civilians

8 Shootings

1 IED

1 Suicide Bomber

4 Car Bombs

1 Mine

Ninewa

31 Incidents

120 Killed: 2 ISF, 118 Civilians

12 Wounded: 12 Civilians

17 Shootings

11 IEDs

20 Incidents

18 Killed: 1 ISF, 17 Civilians

10 Wounded: 1 Peshmerga, 9
Civilians

12 Shootings

5 IEDs

Salahaddin

37 Incidents

76 Killed: 24 ISF, 28 Hashd, 24
Civilians

233 Wounded: 54 ISF, 122 Hashd, 57
Civilians

18 Shootings

14 IEDs

1 Suicide Bomber

6 Suicide Car Bombs

1 Car Bomb

3 Mortars

25 Incidents

70 Killed: 61 ISF, 3 Hashd, 6
Civilians

113 Wounded: 98 ISF, 6 Hashd, 9
Civilians

9 Shootings

12 IEDs

3 Suicide Bombers

3 Suicide Car Bombs

Car
Bombs In Iraq March 2015

Date

Location

Dead

Wounded

Mar 1

Mar 2

East
of Samarra, Salahaddin

4

Mar 3

South
of Tikrit, Salahaddin

4

12

Mar 4

Mar 5

Abu
Dishir, Baghdad

Alam
& Tal Ksaiba x3, Salahaddin

7

37

Mar 6

Mar 7

Bastan,
Anbar

Bani
Saad, Diyala

Tuz
Kharmato, Salahaddin

13

47

Total

10

28

96

Mar 8

Zoba,
Anbar

Mahmudiya,
Babil

Jamila,
Baghdad

10

32

Mar 9

Mullah
Ali x3, Kirkuk

5

30

Mar 10

Mullah
Abdullah, Kirkuk

Baiji,
Salahaddin

2

16

Mar 11

Ramadi
x17, Anbar

Hurriya,
Baghdad

Diom,
Salahaddin

29

79

Mar 12

Saqlawiya,
Anbar

3

5

Mar 13

Diom,
Salahaddin

6

11

Mar 14

Ramadi
x5, Anbar

11

14

Total

34

66

187

The Islamic State responded to the government’s offensive
with a huge wave of suicide car bombs (Vehicle Borne Improvised Explosive
Devices). There were 34 successful detonations of VBIEDs during the week
leading to 66 deaths and 187 wounded across Anbar, Babil, Baghdad, Kirkuk, and
Salahaddin. Almost twice as many were destroyed before they reached their
targets. An example of the intensity of these attacks occurred on March 11
when IS launched a multi pronged attack upon Ramadi with 17 suicide car bombs.
Three days alter another five struck the city. The two VBIEDs in Baghdad and the
one in Babil were the only ones during the week aimed just at civilians. All
the rest were part of assaults on government forces.

Both Baghdad and the Islamic State had major operations
going in Anbar during the second week of March. March
5 the ISF, tribes, and Hashd forces began a campaign to clear Garma in
eastern Anbar. Baghdad officials complained about an increase in mortar fire
upon western suburbs, which was believed to be originating from insurgent
groups in Garma. By March 10
it was said the city was secured along with the surrounding villages. On the
other hand, IS went on the offensive itself in Ramadi. The militants had gained
ground in the city in recent months, but many neighborhoods remained contested
and were constantly changing hands. Beginning on March 11, IS began an all out
assault upon government positions led by its suicide bombers, followed by
mortar and gunfire. The attacks were mostly repulsed. Overall, Anbar remains
one of the few provinces where the Islamic State is still massing its forces
for large operations, but they have not made any tangible advances in months. Conversely,
the Iraqi forces in the governorate do not have the manpower to hold any areas
they clear leading them to constantly go back to the same areas such as Garma,
which had been swept through eight times previously since September.

Baghdad remained under threat from improvised explosive
devices. There were 30 the first week of the month and 25 the second. From
March 8-14 43 people were killed and 163 wounded as a result making IEDs by far
the main driver of casualties in the province. Most of these were aimed at
shops and markets to maximize destruction. There were also two car bombs during
the week. The deadliest was on March
11 in Hurriya next to a medical clinic that left 18 dead and 48 wounded.

On March 9 the peshmerga began moving into southern Kirkuk
in a supporting operation to Baghdad’s push on Tikrit. The Kurds’ goal was to
clear Hawija, which is the main insurgent stronghold in the province, and cut
off supply lines into Salahaddin. The Kurds made steady progress, but suffered
26 dead and 98 wounded in the process. There were likely more losses that were
not reported in the press. The sweep led to the discover of a mass grave with
up to 50 bodies in it on March
14 in Shamsa. IS launched four car bombs during the week in Mullah Ali and
Mullah Abdullah to try to slow the Kurds. Kurdish officials have repeatedly
said that they are only interested in protecting Kurdish areas, but this showed
that they were willing to work with Baghdad to move out of their comfort zones
to confront IS.

In Ninewa IS continued with its harassing attacks upon
peshmerga forces. Almost every day it launched some type of probing mission
against the Kurds in places like Sinjar and the Makhmour sub-district. IS also
destroyed the Khorsabad
ruins, bombed
the Mar Gorges church twice,
along with the Dor
Sharukin palace in the Mosul area. This was part of the IS’s on going campaign
to show its opposition to apostasy and pre-Islamic history. What is more
important and going largely unreported is that IS is going through these sites
to loot them for artifacts it can sell for funding, and then destroying them
for propaganda.

Finally, Salahaddin has been the main focus of the fighting
in the country. Since the beginning of March Dour, Alam and Albu Ajeel were
freed, and northern and eastern sections of Tikrit had been breached. That cost
the lives of 61 ISF and three Hashd, along with 98 ISF and 6 Hashd being
wounded. The real numbers are likely far higher as the government has largely
stopped reporting its losses. By the end of the week there was a pause
and call for reinforcements to take the urban core of Tikrit. The main focus of
the media has been on the conduct of the pro-government forces, specifically
whether any militia units will carry out abuses or sectarian cleansing, which
has happened in other parts of the country. So far a video
was posted on March 10 allegedly showing Asaib Ahl al-Haq burning homes in Albu
Ajeel. The Salahaddin council has acknowledged
that some homes have been destroyed, but that they belonged to IS members. Mass
graves have also been discovered in that town with anywhere from 300-400
bodies in it, many believed to be victims of the Camp Speicher massacre where
IS executed 1,200 after the fall of Tikrit in June. If there are going to be
any violations this would be where they would occur as the local tribe is
blamed for taking part in the Speicher killings. There was one report by the Washington
Post that some displaced who were suspected of being pro-IS had not been
allowed to return to their homes. Otherwise, in other areas such as Alam
to the west of Tikrit the government and Hashd are trying to get displaced
families to return. That town was the only one in the area to resist the
insurgents when they took over during the summer. Members of the local Jabour
tribe have been assisting with the fight as well. They opposed IS during the
summer and have been targeted ever since then by the militants as a result. When
Tikrit is taken there is also little chance for any cleansing as most of the
population has fled in the months since the IS take over. Besides the issues of
abuses, there is the other issue of whether the government can hold all these
areas that it has just taken. After previous offensives in Salahaddin, such as
the one in Baiji the ISF and allies lost control of the area within weeks,
because it didn’t have the forces to hold it. According to some reports, there
is no plan for what to do with the Tikrit area after the current operation is
over. The provincial council is now in talks
with Hashd elements to try to get local tribes to take over security, but
nothing has been agreed upon so far. This will determine whether the current
sweep is successful or not.

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Musings On Iraq was started in 2008 to explain the political, economic, security and cultural situation in Iraq via original articles and interviews. If you wish to contact me personally my email is: motown67@aol.com