SHIN-SOO CHOO: Unless someone gets desperate and overpays massively for Nelson Cruz, the last free agent position player on the market who should command a nine-figure contract is Shin-Soo Choo. According to Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports, the outfielder turned down a seven-year, $140 million offer from the New York Yankees, who then moved on to Carlos Beltran for three years and $45 million.

Had the Yankees signed Choo, they would have had no chance to reach their goal of a $189 million, luxury tax-avoiding payroll. It's going to be a challenge to make that happen anyway, but at least going for Beltran instead of Choo, and signing second baseman Brian Roberts and left-handed reliever Matt Thornton to inexpensive deals keeps the possibility alive.

Choo is left with one fewer big-money suitor, but he still should be able to cash in just fine — eventually.

As Passan writes, having Choo, Dexter Fowler, and high-ceiling prospect George Springer in the same outfield would be brilliant for the Houston Astros' plans to climb out of the doldrums. It also would require Choo to voluntarily sacrifice a season of his prime to a rebuilding project. Money has a way of soothing concerns, but there also could be more money available with a patient tack.

If the Texas Rangers and other potential Choo suitors are waiting to see how things play out with pitcher Masahiro Tanaka, who still has not been posted by the Rakuten Golden Eagles, it makes just as much sense for Choo to see what happens on that front. Scott Boras may have taken Beltran and Jacoby Ellsbury to New York early in the offseason, but the superagent has a history of patience that tends to be rewarded with big deals for his clients.

Ubaldo Jimenez and Ervin Santana already are best served to wait for resolution on Tanaka, because teams who lose out on the Japanese ace still will need pitching. Choo's situation is somewhat different because not every team that is in on Tanaka will be in the market for an outfielder, but there is enough overlap -- and enough of a paucity of available alternatives — to strongly suggest that the best course of action is to wait, and to hope that the Yankees wind up with Tanaka.

RED SOX: So, how do you replace Ellsbury? In Boston, the plan appears to be to go with prospect Jackie Bradley Jr., which is bold but also a risk.

The risk with Bradley, who got a taste of the majors this year, is not in center field, but in the lineup. If Bradley is going to hit eighth or ninth, as Nick Cafardo of The Boston Globe suggests, that still does not address the leadoff spot that Ellsbury vacated when he took his .350 career on-base percentage (.355 in 2013) to New York.

Dustin Pedroia has a .370 career OBP, and was at .372 this year, but he makes more sense to bat in a run-producing spot because of his power, even though his slugging percentage has slipped the past two seasons, reaching a career-low .415 in 2013.

A better plan for Boston is to bat Shane Victorino (.342 career OBP/.351 in 2013) in the leadoff spot, then Pedroia, then David Ortiz and Mike Napoli -- this top four also keeps Ortiz separated from other left-handed hitters, which is important late in games to run through opposition bullpens. Go with the left fielder du jour, whether it's Jonny Gomes or Daniel Nava, in the fifth spot, then some combination of Xander Bogaerts, Will Middlebrooks, A.J. Pierzynski, and Bradley -- and that is a strong lineup. It depends on continued development from Bogaerts and Middlebrooks, but Boston needs that anyway if the plan of avoiding long-term free agent contracts is going to work.

Melvin specifically mentioned Ike Davis of the New York Mets as "the one player people talk about," which has been the case for quite some time. The Mets have some redundancy at first base with the signings of Curtis Granderson and Chris Young pushing Lucas Duda out of the outfield, but to this point, New York is not exactly scrambling to make a trade — which makes sense given that the Mets could just as easily have a Davis/Duda competition in spring training and eventually trade the loser, especially if the trade market now is not where they want it to be.

The problem with that for the Mets is that it would mean selling low, but if Sandy Alderson can't get the price he wants now from Melvin, it's not as if selling low in December is any better than selling low in March.

The wild card still is Mitch Moreland, whom Melvin said the Rangers are not interested in trading. The reason for that is Texas still needs Moreland right now as a designated hitter and backup for Prince Fielder. If the Rangers add another bat, it lessens the need for Moreland. That goes back to Choo, and that, in turn, goes back to Tanaka, showing just how widespread the market dependency is on one man's future.