Astros Preview: Houston Seeking A Second Title In Three Seasons As Spring Training Begins

A healthy campaign from All-Star second baseman Jose Altuve would go a long way toward helping the Astros claim their second pennant in three seasons. (Photo by Loren Elliott/MLB Photos via Getty Images)

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The 2019 marketing slogan is revelatory: Take It Back. Coming off a World Series championship the previous season, the Astros in 2018 set a new franchise standard for wins despite several debilitating injuries and swept the Cleveland Indians in the American League Division Series. But Houston ran into a buzz saw in the AL Championship Series, falling in five games to the eventual champion Boston Red Sox, a result that forced an evaluation of exactly where the Astros stood.

Their reflection was short-lived. The Astros made a few additions, doing so without bloating their payroll, and stand poised to make another run at a title. Or, in other words, take it back.

What’s New

It would be hyperbolic to declare the Astros’ offseason a resounding success, but on the heels of their franchise-record 103 wins, the club needed only to execute sound roster tweaks. To that end, the Astros met their objective, particularly with regards to the lineup.

Left fielder Michael Brantley has a distinguished reputation of productivity, and a healthy campaign should yield dividends for the Astros, whose right-handed-heavy lineup needed left-handed-hitting balance. Brantley won’t provide overwhelming power (17 home runs in 2018) but his low strikeout rate (9.5%) will serve the Astros well for it matches their overarching offensive philosophy. Wedging a quality lefty bat alongside Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman, Carlos Correa, and George Springer should make the top of the order as formidable as any in baseball.

The Astros upgraded the bottom of their order too, with the addition of catcher Robinson Chirinos, whose power (18 home runs in 2018) and 103 wRC+ bested the contributions of Brian McCann and Martin Maldonado, defensive-minded backstops who departed via free agency.

In Aledmys Diaz, the Astros acquired via trade from Toronto what they hope is a reasonable approximation of super-utility Marwin Gonzalez. Diaz has played primarily at shortstop but does have experience at both second and third base as well as limited reps in left field. At first blush, the Astros shouldn’t need Diaz to wear as many hats as Gonzalez did over the previous two seasons, but Diaz does offer the security of someone capable of filling that void in a pinch.

Even with the loss of three-fifths of their rotation, the Astros weren’t overtly desperate for starting pitching. Organizational depth (namely right-handers Collin McHugh, Brad Peacock, and Josh James) should help offset some of the losses as will the addition of veteran left-hander Wade Miley, who experienced a bit of a bounce back with the Milwaukee Brewers in 2018. Like Brantley offensively, Miley (5-2, 2.57 ERA in 2018) provides the Astros some balance in their rotation and perhaps some durability for the long haul of a 162-game, six-month campaign.

What Could Change

The Astros’ depth chart remains relatively static, even with the offseason departure of several free agents. Their infield is unchanged from last season, and if second baseman Jose Altuve and shortstop Carlos Correa reclaim their mojo following injury-abbreviated campaigns, Houston will again feature one of the best infields in the majors, with third baseman Alex Bregman set to emerge as a superstar following his top-5 AL MVP finish.

Michael Brantley joins center fielder George Springer and right fielder Josh Reddick in the outfield, with standbys Jake Marisnick and Tony Kemp back to provide quality depth. The Astros could again probe the readiness of touted prospect Kyle Tucker, who labored mightily after his first call-up, posting a .141/.236/.203 slash line with 13 strikeouts over 72 plate appearances.

The avenue for potential changes comes in the rotation, with right-handed pitching prospect Forrest Whitley perhaps poised to make his big-league debut. The Astros have cultivated enough arms to keep Whitley in the minors, but at some point, the curiosity to test his abundant talent against major-league hitters will facilitate his promotion. When that happens remains to be seen and could offer the greatest measure of intrigue within the organization.

What’s Coming

For all the touting of the Astros’ potent offense, their success last season was based on the historic run prevention authored by their starting rotation. That only Justin Verlander and Gerrit Cole remain from that quintet should give Astros fans pause, despite the pitching depth within the organization and the overpowering numbers Verlander and Cole produced while finishing first and second in the AL with 290 and 276 strikeouts, respectively.

Yet, if the Astros’ position players recapture optimal health, Houston might not require otherworldly starting pitching to post a third consecutive 100-win season. Jose Altuve has already won an MVP award, Alex Bregman finished fifth in the balloting last season, and Carlos Correa and George Springer are viable candidates to push for MVP recognition. If the Astros received 600 plate appearances apiece from that quartet, their offense will again run roughshod over the league. Mix in free agent left fielder Michael Brantley, who finished third in MVP balloting in 2014 and, stated objectively, there aren’t many holes on the everyday roster.

Additionally, the Astros are the class of their division. The Oakland Athletics offered a surprising challenge for the AL West pennant in the second half last season, but they made the most of their patchwork rotation and it will be difficult to achieve the same level of success without a legitimate ace. The Los Angeles Angels are equally hamstrung with their starters, the Seattle Mariners are rebooting following a disappointing 2018, and the Texas Rangers are a long way from contending. On paper, the Astros won’t face much of a threat within their division.

Best-Case Scenario: Shortstop Carlos Correa ably rebounds from a campaign stalled by a back injury and burnishes his profile as a perennial MVP candidate, providing middle-of-the-order thump the organization anticipated after Correa was named AL Rookie of the Year in 2015.

Worst-Case Scenario: The starting rotation, gutted by free agency (Dallas Keuchel and Charlie Morton) and injuries (Lance McCullers Jr.), fails to come close to matching the historic production from last season and undermines plans for a third consecutive AL West title.

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