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Friday, March 25, 2011

FIFA Ranking: Why the need for confederation weightings?

The answer is very simple: Africa. With the Africa Cup of Nations scheduled every two years, Africa would have had a team in the top 10 almost every time.

Computing the ranking without the confederations rankings would have seen Cameroon on top in July and August 2003. Between August 1997 and March 2011 there have been 159 FIFA ranking releases. In 152 of them there would have been at least one African team in the top 10.

Teams that would have made it in the top 10:

Team - Highest ranking

Cameroon

1

Nigeria

2

Egypt

3

Togo

3

Côte d'Ivoire

5

Morocco

5

Senegal

5

South Africa

5

Tunisia

5

Angola

6

Ghana

6

Congo DR

8

Looking strictly at the March 2011 ranking (see at the end of the post), here are the main differences:

Top 10 differences for countries with a better FIFA Ranking:

Team - Ranking without weightings - FIFA Ranking - Difference

Scotland

71

50

21

Bulgaria

67

47

20

Hungary

54

36

18

Bosnia-Herzegovina

74

56

18

Moldova

105

87

18

Israel

75

58

17

Latvia

92

75

17

Northern Ireland

56

40

16

Belgium

78

62

16

Estonia

98

82

16

Top 10 differences for countries with a better Ranking without weightings:

Team - Ranking without weightings - FIFA Ranking - Difference

Libya

52

71

-19

Botswana

49

67

-18

Gabon

43

60

-17

Morocco

50

66

-16

Cape Verde Islands

57

73

-16

Uzbekistan

62

77

-15

Senegal

55

69

-14

Saudi Arabia

65

79

-14

Benin

66

80

-14

Algeria

43

55

-12

Top 50 nations only (in the top 50 in at least one of the rankings)

Top 10 differences for countries with a better FIFA Ranking:

Team - Ranking without weightings - FIFA Ranking - Difference

Scotland

71

50

21

Bulgaria

67

47

20

Hungary

54

36

18

Northern Ireland

56

40

16

Republic of Ireland

45

34

11

Belarus

48

37

11

Ecuador

60

49

11

Colombia

61

50

11

Norway

21

11

10

Italy

19

11

8

Top 10 differences for countries with a better Ranking without weightings:

Team - Ranking without weightings - FIFA Ranking - Difference

Botswana

49

67

-18

Gabon

43

60

-17

Morocco

50

66

-16

Algeria

43

55

-12

Côte d'Ivoire

14

25

-11

Mexico

17

27

-10

Egypt

25

35

-10

Guinea

34

44

-10

Tunisia

35

45

-10

USA

10

19

-9

This is the March 2011 ranking without confederation weightings:

Rank - Team - Points

1

Spain

1860

2

Netherlands

1704

3

Argentina

1492

4

Brazil

1487

5

Germany

1455

6

Uruguay

1263

7

England

1190

8

Ghana

1106

8

Japan

1106

10

USA

1066

11

Portugal

1033

12

Australia

1028

13

Greece

997

14

Côte d'Ivoire

994

15

Croatia

987

16

Chile

980

17

Mexico

935

18

Slovenia

916

19

Italy

900

20

Russia

896

21

Norway

894

22

Korea Republic

889

23

France

867

24

Paraguay

860

25

Egypt

856

26

Slovakia

842

27

Serbia

836

28

Switzerland

799

29

Denmark

776

30

Nigeria

755

31

Burkina Faso

754

32

Montenegro

753

33

Honduras

736

34

Guinea

711

35

Tunisia

710

36

Sweden

706

37

Czech Republic

703

38

Cameroon

698

39

Iran

688

40

Turkey

682

41

Ukraine

672

42

Jamaica

661

43

Gabon

659

43

Algeria

659

45

Republic of Ireland

655

46

South Africa

651

47

Costa Rica

642

48

Belarus

607

49

Botswana

605

50

Morocco

599

51

New Zealand

598

52

Libya

595

53

Cuba

592

54

Hungary

588

55

Senegal

582

56

Northern Ireland

571

57

Cape Verde Islands

567

57

Panama

567

59

Peru

564

60

Ecuador

562

61

Colombia

559

62

Uzbekistan

529

63

Romania

518

64

Venezuela

517

65

Saudi Arabia

510

66

Benin

509

67

Bulgaria

507

68

Lithuania

506

69

China PR

504

70

Jordan

501

71

Scotland

500

72

Austria

491

73

Mali

486

74

Bosnia-Herzegovina

483

75

Israel

479

75

Uganda

479

77

Malawi

476

78

Belgium

472

79

Armenia

471

80

Canada

465

81

Iraq

459

82

Poland

457

83

Mozambique

455

84

Qatar

453

85

El Salvador

446

86

Georgia

444

87

Albania

424

88

Bahrain

421

89

Grenada

420

90

Zambia

415

91

Trinidad and Tobago

414

92

Latvia

409

93

Finland

392

94

Togo

390

95

FYR Macedonia

386

96

Haiti

383

97

Kuwait

378

98

Estonia

375

99

Gambia

371

100

Sudan

369

101

Angola

368

102

Antigua and Barbuda

363

103

Syria

362

103

Niger

362

105

Moldova

352

106

Cyprus

348

107

Oman

338

108

Bolivia

337

109

Central African Republic

332

110

Guyana

326

111

Korea DPR

313

111

United Arab Emirates

313

113

Azerbaijan

312

114

Congo

298

115

Thailand

295

116

Congo DR

294

117

Suriname

293

117

Tanzania

293

119

Ethiopia

288

120

Sierra Leone

286

121

St. Kitts and Nevis

279

122

Yemen

267

123

Zimbabwe

264

124

Guatemala

262

125

Kenya

257

126

Iceland

246

127

Indonesia

243

128

Luxembourg

236

129

Wales

229

130

Rwanda

221

131

Dominica

220

132

Puerto Rico

215

133

Vietnam

209

134

Guinea-Bissau

203

135

Barbados

192

136

Malaysia

175

137

Kazakhstan

174

137

Namibia

174

139

Singapore

171

140

Chad

167

140

Burundi

167

142

Hong Kong

163

143

Faroe Islands

154

144

India

150

145

Equatorial Guinea

138

146

Chinese Taipei

134

147

Curacao

133

147

Tajikistan

133

149

St. Vincent and the Grenadines

129

150

Philippines

126

151

Fiji

125

152

Liechtenstein

122

153

New Caledonia

115

154

Turkmenistan

114

155

Cambodia

110

156

Madagascar

109

157

Swaziland

107

158

Liberia

105

159

Cayman Islands

103

160

Maldives

96

160

Myanmar

96

162

Vanuatu

90

162

Bermuda

90

164

Nicaragua

89

165

Malta

83

166

Lesotho

78

167

Belize

77

168

Dominican Republic

75

169

Lebanon

70

170

Laos

68

171

Pakistan

66

172

Nepal

64

173

Mauritania

61

173

Sri Lanka

61

175

Kyrgyzstan

59

176

Bangladesh

58

177

Eritrea

48

177

British Virgin Islands

48

179

Solomon Islands

47

179

Palestine

47

181

Macau

46

182

St. Lucia

43

183

Mongolia

38

184

Tahiti

37

185

Samoa

30

186

Somalia

29

187

Comoros

23

188

Mauritius

20

188

Cook Islands

20

188

Guam

20

188

Tonga

20

192

Djibouti

18

193

Bahamas

15

193

Turks and Caicos Islands

15

195

Afghanistan

12

196

Seychelles

11

196

Bhutan

11

196

Brunei Darussalam

11

199

Aruba

8

200

US Virgin Islands

6

201

Timor-Leste

3

202

American Samoa

0

202

Andorra

0

202

Anguilla

0

202

Montserrat

0

202

Papua New Guinea

0

202

San Marino

0

About me:

Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer, Romanian. Started the blog in March 2007. Quit in April 2018. You can find me on LinkedIn.

9 comments:

perhaps to even it out, FIFA should select only every second CONCACAF and CAF championships that carry the higher weighting, with the alternate ones carrying the same weighting as a friendly. I had worked out that for australia, a weighting difference of 0.01 extra (i.e. 0.86 vs. 0.85) would benefit australia (and other AFC teams playing similar matches) by around 9 points per year

It seems to me that the FIFA rankings without the confederation weightings are more accurate than with the weightings. I don't see why having an African team in the top 10 would be seen as a misrepresentation of their standing in world football.

So if CAF & any other confederation playing two continental tournaments every 4 years, stopped that and only played one, then they should stop the weighting.

Looking at that top 9 nations: with the exception of Paraguay's exclusion & England's inclusion, that's the top 9 countries at the 2010 FWC. AFC countries shouldn't go down in rankings just cause of this crap bs weightings.

Notice all the teams that would be most greatly disadvantaged were the European teams.

Very late into this discussion, I know, but the Confederation coefficient is unfair. Why should Mexico get fewer points for beating Germany at the World Cup than England would for achieving the same result? Ridiculous!