Social scientists and historians have been living in a world of unexpected outcomes. The revival of
passionate political ideologies in the l960s, the reversal of predicted secularization in the modern
world, the collapse of communist regimes at the end of thel980s, and the contemporary economic
crisis were all events that flew in the face of social-science predictions and analyses. But despite its
prevalence most social science has not attempted to deal with surprise as a category of event. This
essay seeks to analyze surprise at least as a category of explanation and narrative, one that mediates
between counter-factual and factual.