Democratic analysis: GOP lacks momentum

Our most recent POLITICO/GW Battleground Poll shows a generic congressional ballot unchanged from late September, with Republicans lacking the momentum they had hoped to generate over the course of the past month. This, despite the advantages of a highly engaged base, a change-oriented electorate (64% say we are on the wrong track) and a public image that is moderately net-positive (+7 favorable); these are all advantages that Democrats cannot currently claim. And yet, voters remain divided on which party would be better at creating jobs, at turning the economy around, at handling Social Security and on nearly every other dimension tested. In addition, while many voters have already forgotten the disastrous consequences of Republican governance a short time ago, they cannot volunteer a specific set of GOP solutions for the future. This suggests an opening in the last 10 days for Democrats to provide real definition to women and independent voters on what the future would look like — for American workers and for the country as a whole — with a resurgent Republican Party in Washington. The key to winning this election is for Democrats to clearly distinguish their economic and jobs agenda from the Republicans’ agenda.

Republicans retain the same 5-point lead they held in September: 47 percent to 42 percent, with 11 percent of voters still undecided. While the window for persuasion efforts has not yet closed, already much of the focus has turned to base mobilization. Democrats badly need to ensure their loyalists show up on Election Day, as they continue to face an enthusiasm gap. Both parties are bringing their own partisans home, with 86 percent of Democrats and 90 percent of Republicans supporting their respective candidates, but Republicans remain considerably more enthusiastic about voting on Election Day (73% are extremely likely to vote, up from 69%) than Democrats (63%, up from 56%). Democratic subgroups continue to register on the lower end of the enthusiasm spectrum, including 18-to-29-year-olds (52% extremely likely), African-Americans (47%), Latinos (60%) and unmarried women (62%). Engaging this coalition of voters, who were so instrumental to Democratic victories in 2008, is essential.

Story Continued Below

In fact, independents (67% extremely likely), who are currently supporting the Republican candidate by 14 points in the generic trial heat, remain more engaged than Democrats. With a quarter of independents undecided (26%), their vote — and the outcome of the election — remain up for grabs. And while independents have gravitated toward the Republicans since our last poll (44% to 30%, compared with 38% to 32% in September), they continue to favor Democrats over Republicans when it comes to the central issue of job creation (+6); reminding them of the massive destruction of American jobs under GOP control could help reverse the trend.

In many ways, this election is up to women voters. A strong gender gap persists, though Democrats are not engaging enough of an advantage among women to offset the GOP’s strength among men. Women prefer the generic Democrat by just 3 points (46% to 43%), while men choose a Republican by 15 points (52% to 37%). Attempts to pull out close races in tough districts will almost certainly require bringing women back into the fold — in particular, independent women living in the suburbs. Independent women are supporting the Republican by 14 points (43% to 29%), while independent men are supporting the Republican by 15 points (45% to 30%). At the same time, Democrats cannot continue to cede men to such a dramatic degree, in particular non-college-educated men, who have gone from supporting the GOP by 6 points in September to 15 points now — despite a 9-point preference for the Democrats when it comes to creating jobs.