WiMAX not yet around the corner; more like a block away

Some recent criticism suggests that WiMAX won't change the market for Internet …

WiMAX has recently had a run of good press. Intel recently invested $600 million in Clearwire, a firm that has aspirations to build out a national WiMAX network. Intel has also partnered with Caltrain to conduct a (successful) test of mobile WiMAX, and commuters on the test train were able to access the Internet at broadband speeds while moving at 79 mph. And the first full-city WiMAX network in the UK will go up in the town of Milton Keynes.

Then there's the big one: Samsung, Intel, Motorola, and Sprint Nextel have teamed up to build a national WiMAX network using Sprint's licensed spectrum and existing cell towers. The new offering should be launched next year in trial cities, with Sprint hoping to extend access to 100 million people in 2008. Sprint's commitment to the technology dwarfs the Clearwire deal, as the company pledges to invest $3 billion in the next two years.

When the network launches, Sprint has told Ars that it plans to offer speeds in the 2-4Mbps range. This should be fast enough to compete with most DSL offerings. Though slower than many cable connections, the new WiMAX network will also offer the opportunity for those who want Internet access but no cable TV to ditch the cable company. The big questions are whether Sprint will only bundle this with existing wireless phone plans, how much it will cost, and how reliable the connection will be.

Despite all the good news, some analysts point out that WiMAX won't be changing the world in the next couple of years. It will take time to educate consumers about the new technology, and those who want to use WiMAX will be forced to buy new hardware to do so. Don't expect a WiMAX card under most Christmas trees next year.

That's only to be expected when a new technology appears. A more serious criticism comes from Robert Cringely, who points out that WiMAX is not a cure-all for networking troubles. To get good signals over long distances, high-powered transmitters are required, which will also require companies to use licensed spectrum. This could make it difficult for upstarts like Clearwire, which don't generally own a nationwide set of licenses. If they operate in the unlicensed bands, transmission power will be reduced, meaning that WiMAX's vaunted range will be significantly shortened and speeds will be reduced.

Cringely is more pessimistic than we are about the possibilities for unlicensed WiMAX. "The way most of us envision using WiMAX is with lower gain antennas, often without line of sight, and possibly even while moving from place to place," he says, "so the trade-off of bandwidth for distance is pretty severe. Most WiMAX users will find that they can't get the target 70 megabits per second at 30 miles. They'll be lucky to get even one megabit per second at 30 miles." But remember that many DSL users only get 1-2Mbps right now, and that many Americans still use dial-up. Plus, most of the people connecting to the tower will live closer than thirty miles out. While WiMAX may not bring a 30Mbps pipe to every US household, it's not clear that most people need or even want this sort of bandwidth. For WiMAX to alter the competitive landscape, all it needs to do is remain in the ballpark with cable and DSL.

But both Cringely and Ars are excited about the Sprint Nextel deal, which Cringely sees as the perfect sort of WiMAX deployment. Sprint already has the necessary spectrum, it has the infrastructure and network backbone in place, and it has experience handling customers at the national level. It also has the cash needed to build a robust nationwide network. The move could also allow Sprint to challenge the local telcos in the battle for home and office Internet access. If it can do so at speeds and price comparable to DSL, expect to see DSL's price advantage over cable increase as local telcos drop their rates to stay competitive.

Sprint helped to develop WiMAX, probably because it saw the writing on the wall. WiMAX + VoIP = no need for Sprint—unless Sprint can make itself into a WiMAX provider. Sprint is not initially pitching the new "4G network" as a phone service, opting to maintain its PCS network for that. Eventually, WiMAX-capable VoIP phones may force Sprint to shut down the older network and make the switch to WiMAX, but for now the two technologies will coexist until WiMAX is mature.