Study: White deaths exceeded births in one-third of states

(Dec. 5, 2016) -- According to new research by Rogelio Sáenz, dean of The University of Texas at San Antonio (UTSA) College of Public Policy (COPP), and Kenneth Johnson, senior demographer at the Carsey School of Public Policy at the University of New Hampshire, more white deaths than births were reported in 2014 17 U.S. states—more than in any time in the country's history—compared to only four states in 2004. The number is expected to remain consistent.

The 17 states include California, Florida, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, Connecticut, Maine and Rhode Island.

"When births fail to keep pace with deaths, a region is said to have a natural decrease in population," Sáenz said.

The researchers believe that the decreasing white population in these states can be attributed to the rising number of aging adults, a decrease in their fertility rates and the falling number of white women of childbearing age.

Despite the large number of states with white natural decline, only two states had more deaths than births in their combined population. For the other 15 states, the white natural decrease has been offset by natural increases in minority populations.

In particular, due to the youthfulness of the Latino population, Latino births exceeded deaths by a considerable margin during the same time frame. This trend, the researchers said, is related to the increasing diversity of the U.S. population. A 2014 report by Sáenz, in fact, contends that the single largest component of the U.S. child population will be Latino by 2060.

"Our analysis of the demographic factors causing white natural decrease and minority population growth suggests that the pace is likely to pick up in the future," said Sáenz. "These demographic trends have major policy implications from increasing demands on healthcare and retirement systems for aging populations to considerable necessary investments in education and training for younger ones."

The report suggests that competing demands between these populations could create considerable potential for disagreements regarding funding priorities.

The research brief was conducted on behalf of the Carsey School of Public Policy at the University of New Hampshire. Sáenz is the Mark G. Yudof Endowed Professor at UTSA and a policy fellow at the Carsey School of Public Policy at the University of New Hampshire.

UTSA is ranked among the top 400 universities in the world and among the top 100 in the nation, according to Times Higher Education.

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