The last five preseason No. 1 teams have reached the Bowl Championship Series title game. The flip side: Their combined record is 1-4, with Southern California getting the win at the end of the 2004 season.

USA TODAY took over administration of the Division I-A football coaches’ poll in 1991. The preseason No. 1s in that span are 10-6 in bowl games.

USC is opening No. 1 for the third time, all in the last four seasons. Florida State, with four, has the most preseason No. 1 appearances in the USA TODAY poll but none since 1999. USC started first and finished there in 2004. Florida State did the same in 1993 and ’99. Those are the only instances a preseason No. 1 became national champ.

The national champion has come from outside the preseason top 10 three times, all since the BCS began. Oklahoma started 20th in 2000, the lowest ever for an eventual title team. Ohio State was 12th in 2002, and LSU was 15th in 2003.

The lowest a preseason No. 1 has finished in the post-bowl rankings is seventh (Florida in 1994 and Nebraska in 2000).

So, in sixteen years, the preseason #1 has never finished lower than seventh in the final standings, and there’s less than a 20% chance that a team outside of the preseason top ten wins the MNC. Nah, that deck’s not stacked at all.

When can you honestly say, not having a preseason poll would have made a huge difference in college football in terms of making things much, much better?

That’s what you tend to suggest, but you have very little evidence to back you up.

I actually thought about going back and doing a massive amount of research to address your question, but pulled back. After all, that’s what I thought I was doing with my post about the polls in 2004 – you know, the one you dismissed because it was nothing but hindsight, that we don’t know what OU would have done (?), that if it had been OU that finished third, it would have been their fans complaining instead of Auburn’s, etc.

Honestly, what kind of data would prove convincing to you, kckd?

And here’s the thing you’re missing: if in fact D-1 does adopt a formal playoff system, whether it be four schools or eight, this issue becomes exacerbated. With an eight team playoff, we’ve pretty much guaranteed that a preseason #1 is going to be in it regardless of how deserving it may be versus other schools with similar records.

The ironic thing here is that if you keep expanding the playoffs, the problem minimizes. After all, once you go to a thirty two school championship format, everybody in the top 25 gets to dance.

My point about the Auburn thing, is that if Oklahoma were locked out of it, and then won their bowl game, we’d still have the same debate.

And you are right, there is no data to prove it. Because in college football, in regards to polls, really nothing much matters but who is number 1 at the end.

And how much does having the preseason poll influence that? Not much.

And there’s no way to prove it. But I doubt very seriously that Auburn would’ve replaced OU even if they did the poll halfway through. OU blew out virtually everyone they played, even if it wasn’t a tough schedule. There’s no way to know what they would’ve done if they had played a tougher one.

Also, that very year the pollsters actually swapped OU and USC at least once if not twice. So it’s not like they were stuck on who should be no. 1 and no. 2.

OU beat Bowling Green by 16, Texas Tech by 15 and Texas by 12, so I’m not sure I agree with your point that it “blew out virtually everyone they played”.

Auburn had a better record by early October and had more wins over top 8 teams. So I disagree that OU would have been an easy pick for #2 with a first poll in October.

And where did you get the idea that OU was ever ranked first in ’04? USC ran #1 wire to wire. But Auburn pretty much caught Oklahoma in Week 13. The Tigers never could get over the hump from there, though.

Well, the only thing I can figure is I got my years mixed up. Maybe it was USC and Texas in 2005 I’m thinking about. Because I’m sure there was a flip flop at one and two somewhere along the line between two unbeatens that reverted back a week later.

“Texas also was ranked second in each week of the BCS rankings, except for one week where Texas took the top spot with USC falling to number 2″

Bloviation for the Dawgnation

Quote Of The Day

“It brings back a great Bulldog running back in Thomas who has NFL playing experience and has had success as a college coach at multiple schools. He also inherits a position that has been built to an elite level by Bryan. And it gives Bryan the opportunity to return to coaching the position he played and the one where he cut his teeth serving as a graduate assistant under wide receiver coach John Eason here at UGA. It also provides him with a new experience as a passing game coordinator.” -- Mark Richt, AB-H, 2/16/15