This thread is an attempt to generate an exchange rate graph that goes all the way back to January, 2009. The datapoints are monthly averages or typical prices as follows:

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

Jan

.005

.005

.39

6.11

16.31

818

Feb

.005

.005

.90

5.06

25.93

659

Mar

.005

.005

.85

4.88

58.14

594

Apr

.005

.005

1.50

4.98

115.09

461

May

.005

.005

6.38

5.06

112.81

486

Jun

.005

.008

18.55

6.03

108.39

Jul

.005

.060

14.10

8.04

83.80

Aug

.005

.065

9.75

10.88

105.80

Sep

.005

.062

5.76

11.46

124.33

Oct

.005

.106

3.30

11.58

156.50

Nov

.005

.27

2.60

11.51

517.00

Dec

.005

.24

3.51

13.33

799.00

1/2009-5/2010 Attempt to find data of actual OTC trades. The trades found, happened between 0.0010-0.0054. We do not currently know exactly if there was a trend to either direction during this time, or if trades were isolated. Assumed flat 0.005 for the purposes of this analysis but will change if appropriate.6/2010 Transition to Mt.Gox.7/2010-5/2013 Mt.Gox weekly volume weighted average prices' average per month.6/2013- BitStamp's weekly volume weighted average prices' average per month. At approximately mid-May, 2013, Mt.Gox started losing market share to Bitstamp and it's price started to diverge. Therefore the crossover in prices is already in the beginning of June, although Mt.Gox had a larger volume until October.

Now, by applying log-scale and drawing a trendline using the linear regression with least square error, we find that the equation of the trendline is:

-2.8 + 5.2/57(number_of_months_since_Jan_2009).

- Bitcoin went from being a laggard to being overvalued in Nov, 2010.- Highest overvaluation was reached in June, 2011, when the price was $18.5 on average, but the price trendline was only at $0.70.- Despite the crash in 2011, actual undervaluation started only in April, 2012 and continued until Feb, 2013.- The peak of April 2013 saw slight overvaluation, and after the peak, bitcoin has again been slightly undervalued and still is.- Target price October 2013: $251, Nov: $310, Dec: $382.

More long-term targets:- $1000: May 2014- $10,000: April 2015- $300,000: August 2016.

This information is useful e.g. in bitcoin portfolio management. If the price rises high over the trendline, you should be careful in purchases and even consider fishing the top and selling some coins if you do active management.

Conversely in situations where the price is already behind the trendline, you should be aggressive to invest all you can, since major drops are improbable and the risk of large moves to the upside is more pronounced.

Now, by applying log-scale and drawing a trendline using the linear regression with least square error, we find that the equation of the trendline is:

-2.8 + 5.2/57(number_of_months_since_Jan_2009).

- Bitcoin went from being a laggard to being overvalued in Nov, 2010.- Highest overvaluation was reached in June, 2011, when the price was $18.5 on average, but the price trendline was only at $0.70.- Despite the crash in 2011, actual undervaluation started only in April, 2012 and continued until Feb, 2013.- The peak of April 2013 saw slight overvaluation, and after the peak, bitcoin has again been slightly undervalued and still is.- Target price October 2013: $251, Nov: $310, Dec: $382.

More long-term targets:- $1000: May 2014- $10,000: April 2015- $300,000: August 2016.

You should be aggressive to invest all you can, since major drops are improbable and the risk of large moves to the upside is more pronounced.

Didn't you just sell 2/3 of your portfolio? I mean before the recent raise in price...

Luckily 2/3 is a gross overestimate..

Still, selling anything without actual use for the proceeds is generally stupid. I bought 5000oz of silver but I already regret the deal because I would much rather have 1000+ additional BTC using today's exchange rate.

You should be aggressive to invest all you can, since major drops are improbable and the risk of large moves to the upside is more pronounced.

Didn't you just sell 2/3 of your portfolio? I mean before the recent raise in price...

Luckily 2/3 is a gross overestimate..

Still, selling anything without actual use for the proceeds is generally stupid. I bought 5000oz of silver but I already regret the deal because I would much rather have 1000+ additional BTC using today's exchange rate.

I like my Bitcoin Specie more than the Maple Leafs They are a bit easier to trade as they convert in real time to most active currencies.Scan the QR and you will see what I mean.

And... they aren't a product of government but private enterprise.Agora Commodities and Bitgild.com have them for sale.Change the QTY to 5000 and you will see the price per piece drop down to where you might like it, as the premium will adjust with the quantity.At 10K pieces, even better.The folks on eBay are paying US$30-50 each, but I don't know why.

This information is useful e.g. in bitcoin portfolio management. If the price rises high over the trendline, you should be careful in purchases and even consider fishing the top and selling some coins if you do active management.

Conversely in situations where the price is already behind the trendline, you should be aggressive to invest all you can, since major drops are improbable and the risk of large moves to the upside is more pronounced.

I like my Bitcoin Specie more than the Maple Leafs They are a bit easier to trade as they convert in real time to most active currencies.And... they aren't a product of government but private enterprise.

In my understanding, number of bitcoin users now is only 350,000, less than a million at least.

When it reaches 100 million, we are still in early adopter phase in global scale.

It is very important to realize that all growth has its limits, and the limit for bitcoin growth is that it replaces all other liquid wealth. That would lead the purchasing power to be in several million$ range. A more conservative scenario, that of replacing gold, would put the price at $300k/BTC.

In my understanding, number of bitcoin users now is only 350,000, less than a million at least.

When it reaches 100 million, we are still in early adopter phase in global scale.

It is very important to realize that all growth has its limits, and the limit for bitcoin growth is that it replaces all other liquid wealth. That would lead the purchasing power to be in several million$ range. A more conservative scenario, that of replacing gold, would put the price at $300k/BTC.

In my understanding, number of bitcoin users now is only 350,000, less than a million at least.

When it reaches 100 million, we are still in early adopter phase in global scale.

It is very important to realize that all growth has its limits, and the limit for bitcoin growth is that it replaces all other liquid wealth. That would lead the purchasing power to be in several million$ range. A more conservative scenario, that of replacing gold, would put the price at $300k/BTC.

It's still at least a 1500-bagger

Good brainwash - $300k is now "conservative" as Chamath estimated $0.5-$1M...

In my understanding, number of bitcoin users now is only 350,000, less than a million at least.

When it reaches 100 million, we are still in early adopter phase in global scale.

It is very important to realize that all growth has its limits, and the limit for bitcoin growth is that it replaces all other liquid wealth. That would lead the purchasing power to be in several million$ range. A more conservative scenario, that of replacing gold, would put the price at $300k/BTC.

It's still at least a 1500-bagger

Good brainwash - $300k is now "conservative" as Chamath estimated $0.5-$1M...

Hehe, and people on reddit call each other insane for predicting $1000 by 2014. lol. Some clearly haven't grasped the enormity of what is hitting them yet.

In my understanding, number of bitcoin users now is only 350,000, less than a million at least.

When it reaches 100 million, we are still in early adopter phase in global scale.

It is very important to realize that all growth has its limits, and the limit for bitcoin growth is that it replaces all other liquid wealth. That would lead the purchasing power to be in several million$ range. A more conservative scenario, that of replacing gold, would put the price at $300k/BTC.

It's still at least a 1500-bagger

Good brainwash - $300k is now "conservative" as Chamath estimated $0.5-$1M...

Hehe, and people on reddit call each other insane for predicting $1000 by 2014. lol. Some clearly haven't grasped the enormity of what is hitting them yet.

Meh, it's a little disheartening to hear people think that way. They're clearly thinking along the lines of "That means my 50 BTC will be $50,000! No. Way!". But all that's saying to me is how overvalued $50,000 is to them, not how crazily Bitcoin is appreciating. Reminds me of being a kid visiting Italy, 1,000,000 lira was the equivalent of about $50. I've always understood since being that young that a million of anything makes you ask the question, "yeah, but a million of what, exactly?".