Oscars: Which actors will win?

Published 11:53 pm, Thursday, February 14, 2013

Daniel Day-Lewis, shown with the Screen Actors Guild Award he won in January, will almost certainly add a third Oscar to his collection.

Daniel Day-Lewis, shown with the Screen Actors Guild Award he won in January, will almost certainly add a third Oscar to his collection.

Photo: Frazer Harrison, Getty Images

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Jennifer Lawrence has a couple of factors against her.

Jennifer Lawrence has a couple of factors against her.

Photo: Chris Pizzello, Associated Press

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Jessica Chastain gave a great performance in "Zero Dark Thirty" - which might be the kiss of death for her Oscar chances.

Jessica Chastain gave a great performance in "Zero Dark Thirty" - which might be the kiss of death for her Oscar chances.

Photo: Robyn Beck, AFP/Getty Images

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This image released by Universal Pictures shows Anne Hathaway as Fantine in a scene from "Les Misérables." The costumes for the film were designed by Spanish designer Paco Delgado. (AP Photo/Universal Pictures)

In determining who will win in Oscar's acting categories, it is best to look at historical trends. That frees you from gossip, reports from random voters, planted trend stories, etc. It also frees you from your own hope, which can distort judgment.

With all the acting categories, the main thing to remember is chameleonic performances always beat performances that I call "apotheosis-type" performances, in which the actor plays some ultimate version of himself or herself. It can be the most memorable performance in the world - something that will last generations. The academy isn't interested. Clark Gable in "Gone With the Wind," Humphrey Bogart in "Casablanca," Bette Davis in "All About Eve" and George Clooney in "Michael Clayton" all lost.

The chameleon preference goes so deep that Judy Garland, in the performance of her life ("A Star Is Born"), lost to Grace Kelly, simply because the latter played a plain Jane in "The Country Girl." And not too well.

Best actor

With that in mind, let's turn to best actor, where this year we find five chameleons: Bradley Cooper as a mentally ill man in "Silver Linings Playbook," Day-Lewis as "Lincoln," Hugh Jackman pretending to be a man who can sing in tune in "Les Misérables," Joaquin Phoenix as a total weirdo in "The Master" and Denzel Washington as an alcoholic in "Flight."

In the best actor category, it helps to be middle-aged; that is, between 38 and 60. All the actors qualify. It also helps to have been nominated previously in that category. That cuts out Jackman and Cooper. So we're down to three: Day-Lewis, Phoenix and Washington.

The academy prefers noble characters over sleazes. That cuts out Phoenix, who plays the essence of sleaze in "The Master." The academy has also shown a predilection for historical characters. That eliminates Washington and leaves us with Day-Lewis, the winner. But you already knew he was the favorite. Now you know why: Every historical pattern points to him. Moreover, he leads in every category. His performance is the most chameleonic, and his character is the most noble. And Lincoln is profoundly historical, one of the most written-about people who have ever lived.

It probably doesn't hurt that Day-Lewis' performance was unquestionably great. In any case, he's a shoo-in.

Now the first thing we do is look for the chameleons, but there really aren't any this time. Lawrence becoming a brunette doesn't count. I could see a case to be made for Chastain, but it's arguable. Watts more or less plays a version of herself, and everyone will see Wallis as playing a little girl. Perhaps the best argument could be made for Riva, for her portrayal of escalating physical affliction in "Amour." But others will see this as a formidable 85-year-old actress simply playing a formidable 85-year old woman who's unwell. So there is really no chameleon advantage here.

In the best actress category, it helps to be young. Twelve out of the past 15 winners were 35 or younger at the time of their victory. (One of the exceptions was Sandra Bullock ("The Blind Side"), who only seemed 35.) For this year, that helps Wallis, 9; Lawrence, 22; and Chastain, 35. Chastain is lucky they no longer hold the awards ceremony in April, because she turns 36 at the end of March.

The academy also likes it when actresses play historical figures, such as Meryl Streep as Margaret Thatcher in "The Iron Lady." But that helps no one this year. Both Watts and Chastain play characters only loosely based on real people, and the other characters are fictional.

Unlike in the best actor category, best actress usually goes to someone on her first nomination in that category. Watts and Lawrence have previously been nominated, so this at least theoretically helps Chastain, Wallis and Riva. Now I don't think they're going to give it to a 9-year-old or to an 85-year-old in a foreign film. And if they wanted to give it to Watts, for playing an injured person, they might as well give it to Riva, who is even more impressive as a stroke victim. So it's between Chastain and Lawrence.

The difficulty in predicting which of the two will win is that the big indicators either don't apply - no chameleon performances, no historical figures - or emphasize advantages that the two share: They're both young. Lawrence is considerably younger, but historically that neither hurts nor helps. Chastain, however, does have the advantage of never having been nominated for best actress. Lawrence was nominated for "Winter's Bone" two years ago.

Perhaps the whole thing will come down to the last criterion: nobility. If academy members go noble, maybe they will pick Chastain, or maybe they won't see her character as noble. It's an iffy case. In the absence of nobility, maybe they'll choose likability - and go with Lawrence.

If likability is Lawrence's edge, she may have blown it with some voters with her Golden Globes speech, when accepting for best actress in a comedy. She looked at the statue and the first thing out of her mouth was "I beat Meryl" - that is, Streep, who was also nominated. Chastain, on the other hand, was genuinely appreciative and humble when she won best actress in a drama. That's the difference between achieving success in your 20s and in your 30s. In your 20s, it's impossible to be humble. But if you don't make it until you're in your 30s, you've been beaten up enough to remain a human being.

In the end, because one more indicator points to Chastain than Lawrence, I have to predict Chastain over Lawrence. But I fear for Chastain, because I believe she really did give a great performance in "Zero Dark Thirty" - and I have no trust in the academy's good sense or judgment.

Supporting roles

As for the supporting categories, Tommy Lee Jones will win for his performance as Thaddeus Stevens in "Lincoln." He's the only chameleon in the category and plays a noble, real-life figure.

Supporting actress is equally clear. Anne Hathaway and Sally Field give the only performances that could at all be called chameleonic, even though Hathaway acts as she always does in "Les Misérables," and Field, however brilliant she may be as Mary Lincoln, seems pretty much her usual screen self. If I were voting, I'd vote for Field, or for Helen Hunt ("The Sessions"), but Hathaway will win - for being young, for playing a noble character and for cutting her hair.

Yes, it's sad. When you think of the sustained level of inspiration, over many scenes, that were required of Hunt and Field, and their interaction with their co-stars, and then think of Hathaway, who, in a bit part, just had to sing a song in close-up, over and over again, the mind boggles. Yet it seems like a done deal that Hathaway will win for a cameo, in which she cries through a song and transforms a character's nobility into rank self-pity.

Oh, well. Hathaway was fine in "One Day," so maybe we can think of it as a premature career-achievement award. {sbox}

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