International Grain Council Expects Near Record Production (on top of huge carryover)

World grains production will come just 1m tonnes from its
record high, the International Grains Council said, lifting in particular its
forecast for output of corn, in which it ditched an estimate of a drop in
stocks.

The intergovernmental group hiked by 20m tonnes to 2.046bn
tonnes its forecast for global output of coarse grains and wheat in 2016-17,
taking the figure within an ace of the record high set two seasons ago.

The upgrade reflected in part an increase of 6m tonnes, to
735m tonnes, in the estimate for world wheat output, as improved estimates for
former Soviet Union and US crops offset a downgrade to expectations for the
European Union harvest.

"Wheat harvests are significantly exceeding expectations in
the US and [former Soviet Union], but results have been poorer than predicted
in parts of the EU, particularly in France," the council said.

Indeed, in the EU, "there is increasing evidence of yield
and quality damage following untimely rains".

'Solid rebound'

However, the bulk of the grains upgrade was down to an
increase of 14m tonnes to 1.017bn tonnes in the forecast for world corn output,
taking the estimate 1m tonnes from the 2014-15 record high.

"After last year's decline, a solid rebound in global corn
output is anticipated, with most of the gain in the major exporters," the IGC
said.

"Better crop prospects in the US account for most of the
change for corn."

'Historically elevated
stocks'

Estimates for grain demand were raised too, with the IGC
saying that "global grains consumption is seen surpassing 2bn tonnes for only
the second time, with food, feed and industrial demand all potentially at new
all-time peaks"....