White House resets expectations for ObamaCare exchanges in light of embarrassing failures

posted at 12:41 pm on September 26, 2013 by Ed Morrissey

Old and busted: Americans can’t wait for the cost-saving goodness of our ObamaCare exchanges! New hotness: Don’t expect a rush to the websites for … a while. White House communications adviser told Third Way yesterday that “October will be light for enrollment”:

Enrollment will go through lots of ebbs and flows over the six-month enrollment period rather than remaining steady, communications adviser David Simas told reporters during a 45-minute interview at an event sponsored by Third Way at which he downplayed the Obama administration’s expectations for the law’s rollout starting next week.

“October will be light for enrollment … November will be a little bit better,” Simas said. “December will be better than the previous month … probably a dropoff in January from December, the same thing in February with another increase in March right before enrollment ends.”

“There will be ebbs and flows throughout it,” he added. “We are looking at Oct. 1 not as the beginning of the six-day or six-week push. This is six months of raising awareness.”

Ahem. The law has been on the books for exactly 3.5 years now, and has been one of the most hotly-contested issues during that time. Why has it taken this long for the White House and HHS to “raise awareness” of the one mandate they refuse to delay?

“In a perfect world with a ton of money for outreach and engagement, perhaps you could have started earlier,” Simas said. “This is not a perfect world, and there are limitations on what you can do.”

Some proponents of the law have questioned whether the administration started public outreach early enough, concerned that fewer Americans than hoped will enroll in coverage next year.

Perhaps it’s not just a problem of too many people not realizing that the exchanges exist and the mandate won’t be postponed — unlike, say, the employer coverage mandate or the out-of-pocket expenses cap mandate on insurers. Perhaps it’s too many people realizing that ObamaCare is blowing up the costs of premiums, even beyond that covered by subsidies. HHS tried to claim that exchange premiums are “lower than projected,” which Forbes’ Avik Roy called “happy talk”:

“Premiums nationwide will also be around 16 percent lower than originally expected,” HHS cheerfully announces in its press release. But that’s a ruse. HHS compared what the Congressional Budget Office projected rates might look like—in 2016—to its own findings. Neither of those numbers tells you the stat that really matters: how much rates will go up next year, under Obamacare, relative to this year, prior to the law taking effect. …

Based on a Manhattan Institute analysis of the HHS numbers, Obamacare will increase underlying insurance rates for younger men by an average of 97 to 99 percent, and for younger women by an average of 55 to 62 percent. Worst off is North Carolina, which will see individual-market rates triple for women, andquadruple for men.

In my column today for The Fiscal Times, I point out that if retailers tried advertising on this basis, the FTC would sue them for bait-and-switch tactics. As it stands, the HHS language is simply Orwellian:

What actually does happen to premium costs next week? Bloomberg reported after the release that the average individual policy will cost $2,988 a year through its exchanges. That is 37 percent higher than the average individual health-insurance plan in 2011 ($2,196), the first year in which coverage mandates began to take effect under Obamacare. That’s hardly a downward bend in the cost curve, no matter what kind of apples-to-oranges comparison HHS uses to distract from that steep price hike. …

Advocates of Obamacare argue that the price of premium hikes don’t really matter because individuals buying plans in the exchanges will be eligible for subsidies. However, that’s only true for some of those consumers, and that ignores three very salient points.

First, rising premiums demonstrate that the ACA hasn’t actually reformed anything, and second, the subsidies don’t come out of thin air. As premiums skyrocket, more money will be needed from taxpayers to fund those subsidies – taxpayers who are now having to spend a lot more on their own health insurance. Last, as premiums skyrocket, employers will increasingly opt to pay fines and push their employees into ACA exchanges, which will create the need to fund even more subsidies.

Roy also discovers through his joint analysis with the Manhattan Institute that even most of those receiving subsidies will pay more for health insurance overall, and that becomes more evident as the consumer ages.

“In the 13 states plus D.C.,” Roy writes, “a 27-year-old would have to make 59 percent of the median income of his peers, or less, to come out ahead with regard to Obamacare’s subsidies. A 40-year-old would have to make less than 57 percent of the median income for his peers.” Older people do much better. “The average 64-year-old who makes less than 111 percent of the median income for 64-year-olds will spend less on premiums than he did before. … [The] overall results make clear that most people will not receive enough in subsidies to counteract the degree to which Obamacare drives premiums upward.”

The more likely outcome is millions of similarly situated young consumers will opt to have no coverage because the premium increases in other cities across the country will be comparable or, in many cases, much steeper. In Miami, the same 27-year-old now paying $66 per month will pay $163, a 147 percent increase. The figures for other major cities include Chicago (69 percent), Atlanta (286 percent), New Orleans (336 percent), Houston (119 percent), Philadelphia (167 percent) and Omaha (523 percent).

And don’t forget that to keep down costs while meeting Obamacare’s regulatory requirements, many insurance companies have opted to strip down the provider networks of the policies they are offering on the exchanges, meaning fewer choices of doctors and hospitals.

When those millions of young people opt out, rates will have to be increased for everyone else. This is because, as the Washington Examiner‘s Philip Klein has conclusively demonstrated, Obamacare absolutely depends for its success upon the infusion of revenue from healthy young policyholders to subsidize coverage for older people who will cost far more to insure.

Spinning fables about the cost of Obamacare premiums apparently is the irresistible temptation for the Obama administration because, as the Manhattan Institute’s Avik Roy points out, the official announcement from HHS of the 36-state premium rates included the claim that “premiums nationwide will also be around 16 percent lower than originally expected.” That statement is an artful misrepresentation created by comparing the new rates to Congressional Budget Office projections of what rates might be in 2016.

“Premiums nationwide will also be around 16 percent lower than originally expected,” HHS cheerfully announces in its press release

If history shows us anything, it’s that the sheeple will believe whatever a smooth talking snake oil salesman will tell them right up to the point when they have to dig in their pockets. Hard core liberals will whine and moan but will blame Bush instead of themselves for voting for the socialists.

Small wonder that the White House now wants to lower expectations (and blame Republicans for trying to prevent this disaster from taking place at all).

That is going to be the new mantra from the WH, HHS, and the lamestream media – that the reason that Obamacare and the exchanges are struggling is because of the 3 1/2 years of GOP obstructionism.

It’s never Obama’s fault.

It’s always’s the GOP’s fault.

The sad part is that the GOP continues to play into this because of their go along to get along attitude. They are afraid to fight harder because they believe that they will be blamed / castigated even more. They haven’t learned that no matter what they do, they will be blamed and castigated. The progressives have to have a foil to fearmonger against in order to motivate the low information voters.

And if one is going to be blamed and castigated regardless, then one might as well stand on their principles and fight as hard as they can / make their case as loudly as possible.

Ahem. The law has been on the books for exactly 3.5 years now, and has been one of the most hotly-contested issues during that time. Why has it taken this long for the White House and HHS to “raise awareness” of the one mandate they refuse to delay?

Every awareness of another consequence of this law has worked inversely for this administration.

Dont’ Delay. Don’t defund. Enforce all of Obamacare in 2014 and use the media to do so. Make Obama and the Democrats explain why ObamaCare should be delayed, and protect our future by ensuring that Presidents do not have implied line item vetos (as Obama has done).

Two sources tell The Associated Press that small businesses will not be able to enroll online starting Oct. 1 when new health insurance markets go live. Instead, one of the sources, a person who was briefed on the situation, said business owners will initially have to mail or fax their information so that they can enroll.

The sources spoke on condition of anonymity because an official announcement hasn’t yet been made.

Two sources tell The Associated Press that small businesses will not be able to enroll online starting Oct. 1 when new health insurance markets go live. Instead, one of the sources, a person who was briefed on the situation, said business owners will initially have to mail or fax their information so that they can enroll.

The post office needs more business – you see how the Federal Govt works?

When Ford Motors realized the Edsel was a bust they stopped production, they didn’t go out and spend millions on advertising to persuade people to buy a pile of junk.

That’s the free market working in the private sector. But our gubmint is smarter than the rest of us living in the real world.

fogw on September 26, 2013 at 12:56 PM

Yes, and Ford steered clear of a Federal bailout. That is why I sold my Nissan Quest and bought a Ford Edge. The Nissan only had 100K on it and was falling apart. I was spending $3 K a year for the last 3 years to keep the pile of junk on the road. I really did like it – but the repair bills were killing me.

But actually, he thought as he re-adjusted the Ministry of Plenty’s figures, it was not even forgery. It was merely the substitution of one piece of nonsense for another. Most of the material that you were dealing with had no connexion with anything in the real world, not even the kind of connexion that is contained in a direct lie. Statistics were just as much a fantasy in their original version as in their rectified version. A great deal of the time you were expected to make them up out of your head. For example, the Ministry of Plenty’s forecast had estimated the output of boots for the quarter at one-hundred-and-forty-five million pairs. The actual output was given as sixty-two millions. Winston, however, in rewriting the forecast, marked the figure down to fifty-seven millions, so as to allow for the usual claim that the quota had been overfulfilled. In any case, sixty-two millions was no nearer the truth than fifty-seven millions, or than one-hundred-and-forty-five millions. Very likely no boots had been produced at all. Likelier still, nobody knew how many had been produced, much less cared. All one knew was that every quarter astronomical numbers of boots were produced on paper, while perhaps half the population of Oceania went barefoot. And so it was with every class of recorded fact, great or small. Everything faded away into a shadow-world in which, finally, even the date of the year had become uncertain.

2. Revise it to 20,000 pages of rules and regulations, then decide you’re not going to actually do 20% of what the law says, and tell everyone that yes, you always knew it was going to leave the same number of people in dire straits that were there when you started…

So it’s safe to assume that Senator Elizabeth Warren will be spearheading the effort to to ensure that before hitting the “buy” button on those exchanges, you will be informed clearly in big bold type:

Your Monthly Insurance Premium will now be $XXX
Your CO-Pay amount for the following procedures will be $XXX
Your “Free” services will be….hahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha
Your deductible amounts for the following procedures will be $XXX
There will be no “out of Pocket” amount limit for the year 2014, but in the future, your out of pocket limit is $XXXXX
The following hospitals and services in your area are covered under this policy.
The following hospitals and services are not covered under this policy.

Agreed. GOP should NOT get in the way of this legislation. They have fought with the only weak weapons they have. Demand congress and staff pay for their own insurance thru the exchanges and don’t offer amendments to “fix” it. Do NOT delay the individual mandate!! Offer the GOP alternative to Obamacare every time they get in front of a microphone! This thing will collapse before the election next year. It is simply unworkable! The outcry will be so great that they will have to scrap a great deal of it. Then run on it to win the Senate and gain in the house. Weaken every part that is left. When Obama is gone, repeal it.

Young or old, whatever you do, do not answer the questions that have nothing to do with your health-care.

On the gun topic always answer “NO”. If you say “this is none of your business” they enter you as “with guns” or mark you “problematic”, or “on the radar with the IRS”, or “insane” or “to be watched”. Always just say “NO” if asked if you possess guns.

On “what is your sexlife like?” tell them that it’s none of their business and what does it have to do with your liver/lung problems?

Be very careful…the e-records are immediately sent to….India, no kidding. Most doctors have the pictures of your lungs, documents and etc. reviewed by Indian techies or just warm bodies over there…until robots do it here.

Oh, btw, robots to take over 50% of most jobs, soon…thus, why amnesty?

While all attention of this unprecedented IRS scandal was focused on the soon-to-retire at full pension, Lois Lerner, Ms. Ingram, as the head of the Tax-Exempt Division also deserves scrutiny and investigation for her role in the abuse of power. Instead, she was quietly promoted to head the IRS division for the enforcement of Obamacare.

As noted in the above link:

The woman who is arguably the individual most directly responsible for the operation of the IRS targeting scandal has been promoted to run Obamacare enforcement. Let that sink in. Obamacare’s core individual mandate, which the Supreme Court upheld as a tax in 2012, goes into effect next year, and our trustworthy, apolitical pals at the Internal Revenue Service are in charge of policing it. I’m sure being infected by toxic IRS taint will make Obamacare even more popular than it already is.

Obamacare’s 2200+ pages of legislation and 20,000 pages of regulations (so far) are filled with reasons why it is an EpicClusterFarkNado. No matter how the Administration tries to spin this turkey – it remains an EpicClusterFarkNado.

If it cannot be stopped or defunded, then let the creators of this own the effects of it.

So, these exchanges are set up to handle a massive influx of paper forms? Do the paper forms even exist at this point? Etc.

During the Battle of Midway, plans kept shifting from torpedo attack (ships) and bomb attacks (land). As a result the Japanese aircraft carriers had huge quantities of both torpedos and bombs on their decks along with hoses for refueling the planes. Three carriers were lost as a result.

The explosions and fires that the Japanese suffered will look like a figurative weinee roast compared to the conflagration from Obamacare shifting from online to paper-based enrollment less than a week before roll out. The exchanges can’t even quote rates at this point!

Why on Earth aren’t young people who avoided insurance before not rushing to buy it now that it’s up to 6 times more expensive?

Chuck Schick on September 26, 2013 at 2:29 PM

My guess is marketing. Had HHS contracted so that you buy insurance at your local Apple Store they would have had more success. One more product that is six times more expensive wouldn’t even raise eyebrows in that environment.

They simply don’t want the truth out there. Remember Democrats alone voted for this pig and it is going very badly for them right now. They especially don’t want anyone finding out that they have to pay more for insurance than what they were promised. Remember, you can keep your doctor and your premiums will go down by 2000%.

Those evil Republicans are only lying about everything and this simply won’t ever work unless we get about 85 gajillion idiots to sign up for insurance who don’t have it now, so mums the word.

White House resets expectations for ObamaCare exchanges in light of embarrassing failures

From instapundit earlier today:

“Before I went to business school, I used to work in an IT consultancy, and setting up this system sounded like an enormous job to me — a five- to eight-year job, given government procurement rules, not a three-year rush special.”

Only the government thinks it can do something faster and better than the Private sector.

Tacitus had it right 2000 years ago. The free market controls unjust enrichment through real competion. When markets are controlled those that control the markets can grow wealthy indeed. Health care will be no different

The Affordable Care Act could have been a good thing as “Ann A. Butt” would say only if the good came from cost savings and efficiency. The problem as I and Michelle Malkin is experiencing, it is at the increased burden of the middle class. Read her experience and here is mine. I put in 27 years in the Army so that my family would have free medical for the rest of our lives. Ya right! Fine print only until you turn 65. Then you must go on medicare at the cost of $2400/year to be raised to nearly $5,000/year next year. I can chose to not be on medicare but the fine is currently and actually nearly $22,800/YEAR for each and every year for the rest of my life. Ya that’s no miss print $22,800/year for the rest of my life. Now my son who I pay only $19,000/year to help out 2 days a week in the family business gets his medical care for free. We on the other hand are excluded from the affordable care act because we are retired military and over the age of 65. Go figure.

Glenn, first off, please do not use my name if you choose to mention anything I say in this email.

I work for one of the largest Telecom providers in the country. I’m an engineer who designs dedicated data links (DS3s, OC3s, etc…) for major companies across the US.

For background, some of these circuits can be put up fairly quickly, but not the ones that I work on. The ones I design can take up to 90 business days to install.

Anyways, a few weeks ago, we got deluged with orders for circuits that needed to be installed by October 1st. These were circuits to support Obamacare.

Needless to say, they aren’t going to make that deadline. Some of the circuits are being held up due to construction builds that won’t be complete until the end of November. The others won’t make the deadline due to the complexity and the number of various companies involved.

The customer is basically screaming and escalating but because they requested the orders so late, there isn’t much that can be done.

I can only imagine that this same scenario is playing out with other Telecom companies in the United States.

This is precisely why I am 100% against any delaying tactics. Obama’s minions and media will spin away about the glorious New Day we are on the threshold of, yadda yadda yadda. The only counter is hard cold reality.

America reelected this Bozo. It’s time for a reality check. Republicans should stay the heck out of the way. Don’t block, don’t delay anything. Let America see what they bought.

It’s only fair. If America loves it, well, there will be no getting rid of it. If America hates it as I believe they will, they will be lining up to hang Democrats from every tree, flagpole, and lamp post come November 2014.

Glenn, first off, please do not use my name if you choose to mention anything I say in this email.

I work for one of the largest Telecom providers in the country. I’m an engineer who designs dedicated data links (DS3s, OC3s, etc…) for major companies across the US.

For background, some of these circuits can be put up fairly quickly, but not the ones that I work on. The ones I design can take up to 90 business days to install.

Anyways, a few weeks ago, we got deluged with orders for circuits that needed to be installed by October 1st. These were circuits to support Obamacare.

Needless to say, they aren’t going to make that deadline. Some of the circuits are being held up due to construction builds that won’t be complete until the end of November. The others won’t make the deadline due to the complexity and the number of various companies involved.

The customer is basically screaming and escalating but because they requested the orders so late, there isn’t much that can be done.

I can only imagine that this same scenario is playing out with other Telecom companies in the United States.

There is way more to this than meets the eye.

Open your eyes.

Schadenfreude on September 26, 2013 at 3:54 PM

So have the feds given the okay to pull resources and equipment from building pipes to the Singularity in Utah?

Likely one of the biggest reasons for little “awareness” is that for three plus years most people ignored Obamacare with the thought that “I have good insurance so it does not apply to me.”

Only since the beginning of this summer have more and more people begun to become aware that it is going to apply to them because of employers dropping coverage. This shift is still probably in the early-mid stages. Going to be lots more people finding that they are being forced onto Obamacare. Traditional employer provided health insurance may be going by the by for nearly everyone if Obamacare doesn’t collapse first.

I’m finding myself in possibly the same situation but for a different reason. I’ve been a retired federal employee for about ten years and have kept paying for my insurance through Federal Employees Health Benefits. Now there is talk of that being done away with.