I got robbed by the officials in the Browns vs Raiders game in Week 4, resulting in a push. And a couple missed Sebastian Janikowski field goals paired with the Seahawks going 0-10 on third down caused another push!

I’m now -$139.39 for the season based off $100 wagers for each game. Now let’s finally get back to some winning.

NFL Week 5 Best ATS Bets

Pick #1: Broncos Win in New York

Since 2003, the Denver Broncos are 11-16 against the spread when playing in the early slate on Sundays in the Eastern time zone. And they’ve failed to cover each of their last five.

This isn’t just a Denver problem, though. Teams from the Mountain or Pacific time zones under the same circumstances – travelling to the Eastern time zone to play in the early slate on Sunday – are just 98-118-5 ATS. And that record goes to a very concerning 24-34 when the visitor is listed as a favorite, too.

However, the Jets are not one of the east coast teams who have paid off as a host in this scenario. They are just 8-8 against the spread since 2003 when playing at home against a team from the Mountain or Pacific time zone.

The Broncos haven’t been great this season, but they will not get beat by Sam Darnold and a Jets offense that has only managed 41 points in their last three games. This will be an outlier to the rule.

Pick #2: Get Back to Betting Against the Bills

Team

Spread at Bovada

Moneyline

Total

Tennessee Titans

-5.5 (-115)

-250

O 39.5 (-110)

Buffalo Bills

+5.5 (+100)

+210

U 39.5 (-110)

The Buffalo Bills are the worst team in football. Yes, I know the Cardinals have yet to pick up a win. But they look to be in a much better place with Josh Rosen under center than the Bills do with Josh Allen.

The Bills have yet to accumulate 300 yards of offense in any game this season, and their defensive stats are being saved by a game against the Minnesota Vikings, who are unable to protect their quarterback.

The Titans haven’t been great offensively, but Marcus Mariota has only been able to start two games this season and is now fully recovered from the elbow injury that was giving him numbness in his throwing hand.

Tennessee’s offense isn’t really what I’m betting on here, though. Their defensive line, led by Jurrell Casey, is going to tear this Bills offense up. I’m expecting at least one defensive touchdown in this one.

Pick: Titans (-5.5)

Pick #3: Panthers Win Big Coming off Bye

Team

Spread at Bovada

Moneyline

Total

New York Giants

+6.5 (-105)

+235

O 43.5 (-110)

Carolina Panthers

-6.5 (-115)

-275

U 43.5 (-110)

Since 2014, the Carolina Panthers are 4-1 against the spread after a bye. Ron Rivera knows how to prepare his troops.

And considering there isn’t much to prepare for, facing a Giants team that ranks 29th in points scored and 25th in total offense, this one could get out of hand early.

Just finished watching the All-22 of the first half from Sunday. Eli Manning wasn’t touched once. Took ZERO QB hits. I counted 1 pressure. Using the O-line excuse this week is lazy. This is his pocket on the second missed throw of the first half to Odell Beckham Jr. pic.twitter.com/C5bftrAPMl

Laying 6.5 points with a power offense like the Panthers isn’t something I’m always willing to do. But when you take into account the Giants are allowing 4.8 yards per carry (26th), that power running game can quickly turn into an explosive one.

After receiving a bachelor's degree in communications, Matt spent two years with Rogers TV as a host, producer, and play-by-play commentator. He has been with us since 2016 and serves as SBD's editor-in-chief and sports betting expert.

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