First Take: Calls for action in Syria to intensify

Jun. 8, 2013
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President Obama embraces former president George W. Bush at the dedication of the George W. Bush presidential library on the campus of Southern Methodist University in Dallas Thursday. / Charles Dharapak, AP

by Aamer Madhani, USA TODAY

by Aamer Madhani, USA TODAY

President Obama had drawn a "red line" on the use or transfer of chemical weapons by Syrian President Bashar Assad's regime, calling such actions unacceptable.

Now that the White House has acknowledged that this line very likely has been crossed, the response of Obama and the international community could be critical, not just in dealing with Syria, but in maintaining the president's credibility in Iran, where Obama is pushing the regime to abandon its nuclear program.

With intelligence showing that chemical weapons have probably been used in Syria, the pressure from the political right for decisive action by the president will only intensify.

Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., who has long advocated a no-fly zone to stem the bloodshed in Syria that has left more than 70,000 dead, groused to reporters after being notified by the White House of the intelligence that sarin, a lethal nerve agent, has probably been deployed.

"Everything that the non-interventionists said that would happen in Syria if we intervened has happened," McCain said. "The jihadists are on the ascendancy, there is chemical weapons being used, the massacres continue, the Russians continue to be assisting Bashar Assad, and the Iranians are all in. It requires the United States' help and assistance."

The shadow of the war in Iraq looms large for Obama. Without uttering the "I" word, the White House was quick on Thursday to recall the later-debunked intelligence that showed Saddam Hussein had weapons of mass destruction - the central underpinning of George W. Bush's rationalization for going to war.

An Iraq-styled boots-on-ground intervention, of course, is not under serious consideration.

But Obama aides make clear that the intelligence community's physiological evidence that indicates Syria's use of chemical weapons is a bar too low to merit military action, such as implementing a no-fly zone.

"Given the stakes involved, and what we have learned from our own recent experience, intelligence assessments alone are not sufficient - only credible and corroborated facts that provide us with some degree of certainty will guide our decision-making, and strengthen our leadership of the international community," Miguel Rodriguez, Obama's liaison to Congress, wrote in a letter to lawmakers on Thursday.

The Obama administration is still pushing for a United Nations-led investigation into the allegations, and aides to the president on Thursday renewed the call for Assad to give the UN more direct access into Syria-something the Syrian president has thus far resisted.

Concerns about the way forward are also coming from Democrats. Sen. Diane Feinstein, D-Calif., the chairman of the Senate Intelligence Committee, said on Thursday it was "clear that red lines have been crossed and action must be taken to prevent larger scale use." But Feinstein also offered concerns about a doomsday scenario emerging as a result of the administration's decision verifying its suspicion.

"I am very concerned that with this public acknowledgement, President Assad may calculate he has nothing more to lose and the likelihood he will further escalate this conflict therefore increases," Feinstein said in a statement.

Administration officials declined to identify the locations or dates of when they think chemical weapons were deployed in Syria, but said that allegations that chemical agents were dispersed in Aleppo in March had pushed a deeper look. White House officials also declined to detail what evidence it has collected that led to the new assessment.

At this point, Obama appears to be aiming to turn up the pressure on Assad without committing to military action.

Obama "does not want to accelerate and just blindly walk into a set of responses that aren't properly coordinated and thought out," said Aram Nerguizian, a Middle East analyst at Central Strategic and International Studies in Washington.

So, the White House will continue to push the pro-interventionist crowd for patience, but the drumbeat for action is likely to grow louder.