Critic calls it: Who will/should win the Oscars

Published: Friday, February 22, 2013 at 4:30 p.m.

Last Modified: Friday, February 22, 2013 at 9:08 a.m.

Who will take home the statuette in key categories at Sunday's 85th Academy Awards ceremony in Los Angeles? USA TODAY movie critic Claudia Puig weighs in on who will win and should win.

Picture

Amour

Argo

Beasts of the Southern Wild

Django Unchained

Les Misérables

Life of Pi

Lincoln

Silver Linings Playbook

Zero Dark Thirty

Will/should win: Argo. The front-runner in the Oscar race is a rare political thriller that artfully blends nail-biting suspense and riotous humor. Unlike fellow nominee Zero Dark Thirty, Argo is based on a little-known actual event. Set during the Iranian hostage crisis in 1979, the film revolves around the daring rescue of a half-dozen American Embassy workers by a CIA operative (director/actor Ben Affleck). Its detailed re-creation of the period feels startlingly authentic, and the ensemble cast is top-notch. Though Lincoln has more of the classic Oscar patina, Hollywood seems to be falling all over itself to make up for Ben Affleck's snub in the directing category. But film academy politics aside, Argo is a razor-sharp Hollywood satire, an edge-of-the-seat great escape caper and overall the year's most entertaining film.

Director

Michael Haneke, Amour

Ang Lee, Life of Pi

David O. Russell, Silver Linings Playbook

Steven Spielberg, Lincoln

Benh Zeitlin, Beasts of the Southern Wild

Will win: Spielberg. He is undeniably a terrific storyteller and a superb director of action sequences. The director draws strong performances from a powerful cast, and this story of Abraham Lincoln's efforts to end the Civil War and abolish slavery is immersive and informative. The only drawback is Spielberg's occasional indulgence in patriotic tear-jerking moments, underscored by John Williams' swelling score.

Should win: Lee. Yann Martel's magical-realism tale of an Indian boy shipwrecked on the Pacific for 227 days in a lifeboat with a Bengal tiger was considered to be unfilmable. But the Taiwanese director is the most fearless filmmaker working today. Life of Pi is the year's most visually stunning movie, an enchanting and astonishing technical achievement, and 3-D has never been better employed to enhance storytelling. With its meticulously artful blend of CGI and live action, Lee's directorial feat is the year's most spectacular.

Actor

Bradley Cooper, Silver Linings Playbook

Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln

Hugh Jackman, Les Misérables

Joaquin Phoenix, The Master

Denzel Washington, Flight

Will/should win: Day-Lewis. The winner of two best-actor Oscars, Day-Lewis hits no false notes in his perfectly calibrated, mesmerizing and understated performance as the contemplative and devilishly funny 16th president in the final months of his life. The underlying genius in Day-Lewis' work is the subtle way he reveals the passion and Machiavellian determination that drives Lincoln, masked by the folksy parables he often employs to convey his points. Within minutes of watching his performance, we sense Oscar writ large all over it — in the best possible way. In a career of spectacular performances, this is Day-Lewis' most impressive.

Actress

Jessica Chastain, Zero Dark Thirty

Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook

Emmanuelle Riva, Amour

Quvenzhané Wallis, Beasts of the Southern Wild

Naomi Watts,The Impossible

Will win: Lawrence. At only 22, Lawrence is already on Hollywood's A-list, thanks to wonderful performances in 2010's Winter's Bone and last year's The Hunger Games. She is terrific here as Tiffany, an unstable young widow who connects emotionally with Bradley Cooper's damaged character while they work on a dance routine. Hers is an exceptionally charismatic comic performance, but not the year's best.

Should win: Riva. The 85-year-old French actress is astounding as Anne, a vital, dignified former music teacher who has a series of strokes and grows increasingly disabled. Riva is thoroughly convincing as a cultivated, affluent elderly woman and just as believable when her character begins to slowly recede, frail and partly paralyzed, her eyes and smallest gestures speaking volumes. Though Riva makes it look effortless, it's a hauntingly masterful performance that stays with the viewer.

Supporting actor

Alan Arkin, Argo

Robert De Niro, Silver Linings Playbook

Philip Seymour Hoffman, The Master

Tommy Lee Jones, Lincoln

Christoph Waltz, Django Unchained

Will win: Jones. Hollywood veteran Jones is deservedly admired by the academy (he won supporting actor in 1994 for The Fugitive) for his dry wit and no-nonsense style. Jones makes a lasting impression with his portrayal of “radical Republican” Rep. Thaddeus Stevens by donning a wobbly wig and displaying both a wry manner and firebrand tendencies.

Should win: Waltz. This is almost the flip side of Waltz's Oscar-winning role in 2009's Inglourious Basterds. As Dr. King Schultz, the German-born dentist turned bounty hunter, Waltz brings Tarantino's distinctive dialogue to the kind of vivid life it deserves. His courtly, verbose performance is multidimensional — lively, ironic, impassioned, vicious and always intelligent. Waltz has become something akin to Tarantino's muse. Their symbiotic connection is like that of Tim Burton/Johnny Depp or, in the past, Scorsese/De Niro.

Supporting actress

Amy Adams, The Master

Sally Field, Lincoln

Anne Hathaway, Les Misérables

Helen Hunt, The Sessions

Jacki Weaver, Silver Linings Playbook

Will/should win: Hathaway. She is not only pitch-perfect as the tragic seamstress Fantine, but her half-sung, half-sobbed rendition of I Dreamed a Dream can rip the heart out of the most hardened cynics. (The fact that it was performed in one 4½-minute take is even more impressive.) Even though the film is divisive, most agree that Hathaway's was an impeccable performance.

Animated feature

Brave

Frankenweenie

ParaNorman

The Pirates! Band of Misfits

Wreck-it Ralph

Will win: Wreck-it Ralph. This funny, sweet and visually dazzling 3-D computer-animated film won the Annie Award for best animated feature. One of Disney's most clever animated films in years, it brings vivid arcade worlds to imaginative life on the big screen.

Should win: Frankenweenie. This love story between a boy and his dog is wonderfully poignant, funny and enthralling. It is also the year's smartest animated film. A beautifully crafted homage to classic horror films, it's also a study of grief as well as a commentary on the mysteries of science and those who narrow-mindedly fear its advances. Director Tim Burton takes his trademark fascination with the macabre and leavens it with emotion and sharp wit.

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