The Warriors Confront Life After Love

After weeks of “sources” and speculation, there was finally some real news on the Kevin Love beat — and it wasn’t good news for the Warriors. On Tuesday, the Cleveland Cavaliers orchestrated a reverse salary-dump with the Utah Jazz, buying relatively small, non-guaranteed contracts that could be sent to Minnesota as trade ballast in a deal for the Wolves’ much longed-for power forward. A day earlier, the Cleveland announced that they are close to signing Andrew Wiggins — a necessary step in shipping him out for Love, since the Cavs need his salary on the books to balance the deal. There’s still time for things to change, particularly since Wiggins can’t be dealt for 30 days after signing his deal. But the Warriors’ future is looking increasingly Loveless.

If the rumored Wiggins, Bennet and a 1st round pick for Love, Martin and/or Barea deal eventually happens, the Warriors can take solace in the fact that they likely couldn’t beat the offer — even if they had opted to offer Klay Thompson. Would a deal have been possible had the Warriors offered Thompson before the draft or LeBron’s return to Cleveland? Maybe — but given Minnesota’s relentless push to extract top value for Love, it’s entirely possible Flip would have waited on that deal as well. And had LeBron stayed in Miami, the Warriors’ Lee/Barnes/pick offer very well could have been the top of the market. While we still have months before the season starts to debate the “what ifs” of hypothetical Love deals, the more relevant conversation is now how much the Warriors have improved with the moves they actually made.

Kerr vs. Jackson — The most significant change so far in the Warriors’ 2014 off-season is also the hardest to analyze. We know all too well about Jackson’s failings (and strengths) as a coach, but Kerr is still a great unknown (yes, even after coaching a bunch of players that won’t be on the active roster in the Vegas summer league). My guess is the most dramatic changes under Kerr come on the offensive end, with the team breaking free from its league-worst ranking on touches per possession in favor of a more fluid offense. That change alone — if it comes to pass — is likely worth a few more wins next season. The Warriors suffered last season through long patches of offensive futility. If Kerr can find a way to avoid those through better ball movement and a more aggressive tempo, the Warriors’ offense should be a more consistently devastating attack. Not sold yet on Kerr as an upgrade? At least you can take some comfort in the assistant coach comparison, where the swap of Pete Myers and Lindsey Hunter for Alvin Gentry and Ron Adams is a LeBron-to-Cleveland type coup.

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Livingston vs. Blake — The Warriors’ biggest bench failing was obvious all last season, and Bob Myers struck out on three attempts to fix it. The Warriors started the year with Toney Douglas, but his lack of offense was crippling. The next attempt to find a floor general wasn’t much of an improvement, with Jordan Crawford’s tweener instincts leading to plenty of white-knuckle possessions. At the trade deadline, the Warriors had a multi-million dollar trade exception that they could have used to bring in a more talented rotation player. Instead, they went the budget route with Steve Blake — and largely got what they paid for. While Blake undoubtedly suffered from Jackson’s system (or lack thereof), he was a marginal player on the downslope of his career. The underwhelming results weren’t too shocking given what the team had to work with — although the Warriors’ decision to let another trade exception expire makes you wonder what could have been in the Clippers series and beyond had they opted to make a bigger splash at least year’s deadline. But all that is in the past, and Myers seems to have learned from his failures. Shaun Livingston was a quality starter for the Nets last season in Deron Williams’ absence. He brings true point guard skills, Curry-compatible size and some much needed post offense for the Warriors’ outside-oriented attack. For the first time since Jarrett Jack departed, the Warriors have someone on the bench they can trust to run the offense. His steady hand should help the Warriors avoid the slumps they slogged through last season with Jackson’s bench-mob hockey substitutions. The minutes Livingston will log at the 1 should have a positive ripple effect throughout the rotation.

Rush vs. Crawford — You could easily write this comparison as “Rush vs. ?” because it’s not clear who the Warriors used as a back-up shooting guard last season. Thompson was an iron man, playing the vast majority of the minutes at the two. When he went to the bench, Curry often swung over to play off the ball. Barnes and Iguodala occasionally logged minutes, but neither was a good fit. If you’re going to give the title to anyone, it probably goes to Crawford, who brought the shoot-first mentality you’d expect from the position. In swapping Crawford for Rush, the Warriors exchange erratic volume for controlled efficiency. The pre-injury Rush was a two-way player who knew his role and shot a blistering .501 from the field and .452 from behind the arc in his last full season. The post-injury Rush hasn’t come anywhere close to those numbers, but after getting his legs back last season, there’s reason for optimism. If Rush can play steady defense and knock down open threes, he’ll be a nice replacement for Crawford. If Rush can regain any of his explosiveness to be the slasher he once was, he’ll be a low-risk/high-reward steal for the Warriors. This move won’t be a game-changer move, but it still addresses a glaring weakness.

Barnes vs. Barnes — After all the hype surrounding the potential Love trade, it will be easy to feel like this off-season has been a let-down without any impact moves for the Warriors. Those types of off-seasons are inevitably met with the old “internal development” mantra from the team. But if Harrison Barnes can regain the form he showed in the 2012-13 playoffs, there may be some truth to that well-worn rationalization. Kerr has talked repeatedly about the need for a stretch four. Barnes was that player against the Nuggets and the Spurs, spreading the floor with threes, crashing the boards and slashing to the basket. His Spurs series averages of 17.3 points and 7.3 rebounds are mind-boggling given how disengaged he looked last season. Jackson refused to give him major minutes in that role again, but the new regime should bring new opportunities. If Barnes can become a consistent contributor — either as a stretch four or a better-used three — it’ll not only help the Warriors’ bench, but give them a valuable young and cheap asset to potentially deal at the trade deadline.

Iguodala vs. Iguodala — Last season, Iguodala’s defense and unselfishness made him the often unnoticed glue that held the Warriors together. But when the Warriors signed him to an eight-figure-a-year deal, they were looking for more than a glue guy. Kerr’s offense should benefit Iguodala as much as anyone. An emphasis on pushing the tempo will get him more fast-break opportunities. A modified triangle offense will play to his high basketball IQ. Improved bench scoring from Livingston and Rush should take off some of the pressure and defensive attention when Iguodala’s playing with the second unit. After turning in his lowest scoring total since his rookie campaign, I’m expecting a bit of a bounce-back year (hamstrings willing).

Ezeli vs. O’Neal — This final comparison is hopefully one the Warriors can avoid. It would be great to have both Ezeli and O’Neal back next season. One brings an athletic, youthful presence; the other savvy, veteran inspiration. As a two-headed back-up center, they give you lots of flexibility. But if O’Neal is done, the pressure falls on Ezeli to regain his health and build upon his rookie campaign. Ezeli’s defense has already proven to be NBA ready. And as a smart and relatively mobile player, there’s no reason that Ezeli couldn’t be successful in a more structured offense. Like Rush, he’s unlikely to make a major impact, but he still fills a hole from last season.

Assuming Love is lost, the Warriors need to get on with their lives. They were 6 games back from the Clippers last season and 3 games back from home-court advantage in the first round. Can the additions of Kerr, Livingston and Rush and improved years from Barnes, Iguodala and Ezeli bridge that gap? Maybe, but the rest of the West is improving as well. If there’s no impact move on the horizon, the Warriors would be well served to fill out their remaining roster spots with young assets that can be developed into potential add-ins or replacement parts should a blockbuster trade deadline deal roll around. Guys like Al-Farouq Aminu or Chris Douglas-Roberts may not be glamorous names, but they still have upside that could be developed in the right system. The best teams find guys whose contributions exceed their acquisition price — whether in terms of draft order or contract price. Klay Thompson (on his current contract), Draymond Green and even Stephen Curry all fit that model. Acquiring Love while keeping Thompson would be an all-time low-cost steal. But if dreams of Love are finally done, Bob Myers will need to look elsewhere to turn nearly nothing into something.

Adam Lauridsen

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“For the first time since Jarrett Jack departed, the Warriors have someone on the bench they can trust to run the offense. [Livingston's] steady hand should help the Warriors avoid the slumps they slogged through last season … The minutes Livingston will log at the 1 should have a positive ripple effect throughout the rotation.”
…i expect we will have a post by you Adam at some point in the season that will be eerily similar to the one that pronounced JJ as team MVP (i was one of the few to agree with you on that), for all the same reasons.
SL and the assistant coaches are the big difference makers as i see it.

Hammertime

Thanks Adam, great to hear from you! Downside is that we’re now at the maximum possible wait time until your next post

I think a huge amount rests on the shoulders of Kerr and his assistants. I’m confident they can maintain / not interfere with the internal development we’ve seen over the last few years, and that’s all it will take to finish in the same ballpark they did last year i.e. close to home court, equally close to out of playoffs.

If they’re any good, they’ll bring out the best in the squad, which is all it’ll take to get the Warriors a top 4 seed.

I agree that Love seems as close to gone (from the Warriors) as he ever has, but I still get a funny feeling that Myers and Lacob will be tempted to swoop in at the last minute. But I think their vision for what this team can be, their plans for the 15/16 offseason, (and their worse offer?) will stop them from pulling that trigger.

Our Team

Well said, Adam, particularly re the assistant coaches. If the Warriors are truly to become Championship contenders (barring a major trade), Barnes would have to develop into a star player. That, of course, would take substantial improvement over what we saw from him last year. To my mind, therefore, he is the most key unknown element going into this season.

Richard Andersen

First of all, regardless of what the latest Love rumors say, rumors are often wrong, and it ain’t over till it’s over. Myers is obviously creative and if the dubs really want Love badly, he might still figure out a way. Of course, one of the many things we don’t know is how badly they want him, and how unwilling they really are to give up Klay.

I’m wondering, Adam, why you left out “Green vs Green” and “Bogut vs Bogut”. The possible improvement of both of these guys in Kerr’s offensive system could be huge. What’s more, if they don’t get Love, you may need huge improvement by both Green and Barnes to substitute as a 3/4 stretch combo for the 2nd elite player (after Curry) that you usually need to get to a championship. If Green improves his 3point shooting and is more effective inside in Kerr’s system (both possible), then you have a stretch 4 who can do well all of what Love can do (though not quite as many points or quite as many rebounds: you make up the difference with Barnes), plus play the outstanding D at 4 or 5 positions Love doesn’t offer.

Based on his playoff performance last year and his relatively high wins-produced stats, Green’s already arguably the biggest impact player on the team after Curry (or at least roughly at the level of Bogut and Iggy). Last year, whenever the ball moved through him he consistently immediately found the open man; he should be a terrific ball mover in Kerr’s system, and he’s also good at pushing it in transition after grabbing a rebound. If he does improve both his outside and inside shooting he’ll be a monster, and quite possibly (with help from an improved Barnes) enough to get them to a championship game even without Love. This scenario depends on a lot of other factors, including all key players staying healthy through the playoffs, but it’s possible.

logicpuppy

To quote the poet Cherilyn Sarkisian:

Do you believe in life after love
I can feel something inside me say
I really don’t think you’re strong enough,
Now
Do you believe in life after love
I can feel something inside me say
I really don’t think you’re strong enough,
Now

What am I supposed to do
Sit around and wait for you
And I can’t do that
There’s no turning back
I need time to move on
I need love to feel strong
‘Cause I’ve had time to think it through
And maybe I’m too good for you Ohh Oh

monsta

over

Airbus01

I’d like to finish a season with a healthy Andrew Bogut. That might make as big a difference as any item on the list.

Commish

I was so hot to do the trade for Love, even if it involved Klay. But I read MTII’s recent article and he raised so many good points as to why that would be a very dangerous trade. So now I’m glad the Dub’s brass kept their cool and played the wait and see game. If Love goes to the Cavs, good for them and Lebron. I applaud him for going home. I still have a great deal of confidence in Myers and Jerry West. Even with our current roster and the young players being a year older, we were only a healthy Bogut from beating the Clippers imho. Hurry up November, hurry up…

Richard Andersen

In response to jsl’s post in the last thread on Love’s warts (I’m re-posting from the old thread since I guess it’s dead now):

1. I think the grantland article posted by sartre is quite relevant. The league “officials” surveyed largely blame other factors (poor gms, coaching changes etc.) for his
not making the playoffs. I would add–as others have–no elite rim
protector or wing defender and a poor bench. These league sources also
rate his hand injuries as freak occurrences that don’t indicate the kind
of chronic problem that repeated knee, foot, or back problems would.

2. I’d like to see the source of your “crunch time” numbers on Love. With
his tremendous ability to score both inside and out, it’s hard to
imagine he wouldn’t be effective in crunch time on a contender. The
past numbers might be an anomaly based partly on his being the main
option the defense has to worry about on a poor team. That would not be
the case on the Warriors. Bottom line is: you might be right that this
is something to be concerned about, but the league as a whole doesn’t
seem to agree, and I think it’s pretty hard to prove that this would be a
major failing of Love’s on a contender with other good offensive
options like Curry to worry the defense.

3. I agree that if he were a poor transition D player that would be a concern. Indications are, though, that he has enough foot speed to get back pretty well, so
again if you add the fact that he’d be much more motivated to go all out
on a contender, I don’t see a strong argument this would be a big
problem if he came to the Warriors.

4. As others have posted, both the individual and team defense stats on him are pretty good, some of the individual stats being better than Lee’s. Apparently–like Lee–he does better in one-one-one D than when he has to move and rotate. Lee
obviously sometimes has similar problems, but still does well enough in
overall individual and team D to be part of the lineup last year that I
think had the biggest differential in the league between points scored
and allowed. There is no strong evidence that Love’s defensive
weaknesses would hurt the dubs any more than Lee’s have, and they’ve
done pretty darn well on both ends with Lee.

5. No player is perfect, and his strengths as an inside and outside scorer, passer,
outlet passer, rebounder potential pick-and-roll monster with Curry,
and overall wins-producer are so great that they likely make up for a
few secondary warts. It seems to me that you over-emphasize his
possible weaknesses without adequate evidence and don’t give enough
weight to his obvious strengths.

rigged

Let it go for goodness sake.

Bob Myers and The Logo knows best. PERIOD.

FeatherRiverDan

I believe this new coaching staff is going to make all the difference in the world baring injuries….

rigged

Warriors have 4 …FOUR… additions for this year,…a H/Coach with an impressive line of assistants and my boy Ezeli…

A question to every Dubs Believer — 4th or 5th finish for the WConf.?

GO WARRIORS!!!!!!!!!

Zume

I believe that last Adam post on “The Wait for Love..” had a record of 5,084 posts. You guys amaze me! Talk about attention to detail. Now if Steve Kerr has that same diligence we will be taking it to a new level of excellence, a higher basketball standard.

GoldenState1stRoundExit

Jerry West is stuck in the past.

Now everyone seems to think we can magically become the Spurs with a rookie coach in Steve Kerr. Good luck with that.

thisistheyear

Lebron went home because the Love deal will be done (IM0). If I am wrong I will be the first to admit it . I don’t buy all they homey talk for a minute. It is a pure, calculated business decision to support/protect/enhance the L. James mega brand. He gets to demonstrate he is a ‘home guy’ while joining a stacked deck for future championships. Each of which is a coup for the L. James brand worth bazillions. Fine, make all the money you can. Nevertheless he, IMO, is every bit as corporate as the NBA itself. Yes, he is the world’s best basketball talent. Also a very shrewd business man. And that is what it’s all about. JMO

rigged

I’m still hoping for JON…

Geo77

Interesting that you mention Aminu and Douglas-Roberts. I’m not much of a college guy but remeber liking both of them when they came out. Doesn’t appear that they panned out, but getting guys like that and giving them exposure to a top notch coaching staff to help them maximize their potential are the kinds of small moves that could pay dividends in the future. Great teams stockpile assets, and the best way to get assets is to buy when guys’ stock is low and develop their skills.

RaiderE

This argument has been beaten to bloody pulp, and continuing to pose the same points from either side shows no mercy to the rest of the posters here who are tired of it.

Let me put this bluntly, Love is a great player. A good 2nd option on a playoff team, and a great 1st option on a bad team. He has significant deficiencies on defense and with his character.

Most importantly, the dub’s seem to have moved on, and we should all do the same.

rigged

Give my regards to Phil Jackson….(sob)

RaiderE

They should have beat the Clips regardless of Bogut’s health. That series was there for the taking, and in the end, the Clips wanted it more.

RaiderE

Many in the media share the notion that the Love deal was done before Lebron signed anything. Personally, I’m glad he is not coming here, and will watch Cleveland more closely next season, so I don’t miss the reaction James has to Love not getting back on D. One of Lebron’s strengths is flying down court in transition and blocking shots from behind. He certainly is not going to put up with Love’s weak transition D. Add that to the thought that a zebra doesn’t change his stripes, and it should be very interesting.

RaiderE

Klay Thompson will be an All-Star next season.

J Haskins

“We know all too well about Jackson’s failings (and strengths) as a coach”

Jackson’s strengths: Leading the Warriors out of the gutter, and made them a top 5 defensive team.
Jackson’s failings: Unable to get past the 2nd round despite injuries to Lee and Bogut in subsequent years, and a non playoff team bench led by latest bust, Harrison Barnes

RaiderE

You may as well accept it, RA. It doesn’t matter how much you try to convince yourself. Dub’s have lost that Love feeling. Now it’s gone, gone, gone…..

Airbus01

Does this mean you’re going to root for the Cavaliers now if their trade for Love happens?

dj

I don’t know if Meyers can do whatever he wants as GM but so far m he has failed. No, I don’t care about Love. Meyers has not improved the bench much. Livingston ? please the guy can’t shoot the basketball. They have 2 crippled centers. Iggy sux big time. So unless Curry plays out of his mind, the W’s will be in trouble next season. Barnes is what he is : a limited forward w/ no handles

darkmark

Though the biggest unknown is still our HC change, I’m sure many will agree that our coaching staff as a whole is much improved. Gentry and Adams are proven winners and a clear upgrade over any W’s coaching staff in recent history.

rigged

…how about remenisce the Sheed throwing the towel in the face of Arvi…??

flaninerfan

Maybe its me but why is the CLE offer so good? Wiggins is an unknown commodity. Saw him in Vegas and he looked pretty good but not earth shattering. Kind of a tweener in size and pretty skinny. Was not Bennett a bust last year? Guess it depends on MIN end goal. Full rebuild or try to win now.

rigged

Not ‘might’…it sure will.

darkmark

Every step that Meyers has taken was, at the time, an incrimental upgrade. He hasn’t hit it out of the park yet, but our roster today is better both on paper and on the court than what we had before Meyers came on board. So no, Meyers has not failed.

RaiderE

I think they come in 3rd right behind the Spurs and the Thunder. I would have said 2nd before Kawhi found himself on offense in last seasons championship run, but now he is looking like he is ready to be passed the reigns.

RaiderE

I don’t recall what your talking about?

RaiderE

Probably because Myer’s has pulled out, and effectively told Flip to lose his number.

rigged

Rasheed Wallace and Arvidas Sabonis on the losing game of the Blazers for the Conf Championship…

http://www.radionowhere.net/spyboy/fof.html Mike Baker

Adam – always the best perspective on the Dubs by a country mile. Thanks!

rigged

I would like to attend MJacks congregation….should be interesting

J. West

Richard Anderson:
I could have traded the entire team for that prima donna called Love. On the blog you think you know what is best, in real life it’s me. Don’t push it. Don’t push it or I’ll give you a blog like you won’t believe. Let it go! Let it go!http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OnkQk_bWXpA

Pooh Treat

Hi Dell!!!

J Haskins

What the fu..? Only people with sensible basketball knowledge need reply.

Believewhat

Wiggins potential super star and #1 pick. Klay and Lee borderline stars, one with huge contract and other big contract signing looming. Warriors give Minny a win now combo while Cavs give them a build for future with no big salary coming their way.

Believewhat

#6 this year. We can leapfrog to #3 if lot “ifs” turned into our favor but my best guess is #6 with a chance to upset in 1st round, kind of how we started last year.

Believewhat

Adam,

Thanks for helping us to move on from Love. This Love quest has resulted in losing on few other bargain contract FAs like Ed Davis, Jason Smith and Blair gone. Now, I would like dubs to get Blatche who probably will play for 3 mils or so. He will turn out to be a huge signing for dubs.

Geo77

You don’t seem to understand contracts. The Ws took a chance on Curry when they offered him a long term contract, given that he had a recent history of ankle injuries. If he would have gone down for the long term they still would have had to pay him. They took a risk in offering him that contract, and when you take a risk and get lucky you get a reward, in this case a very reasonable long term contract for your star. That’s how the world works – risk and reward. Curry seems to understand that, I haven’t heard him complaining. Basically your position is whenever somebody signs a contract and underperforms you pay them anyway (which you are contractually obligated to do) but when they overperform you tear the contract up, release them from their contractual obligations and give them more money. Remind me not to hire you to run my next business.

NewEra2014

Yes. I will root for the Cavs in the East. I look forward to seeing James and Love playing together, especially since they are safely away from the Warriors until the Finals. I never could root for the Heat, it felt like rooting for the Yankees. Warriors in the West, Cavs in the East.

Believewhat

Who is giving Klay max ?? If Klay doesn’t accept 11-12 mils a year contract this year, he has to be selected to all star to get max offer next year from dubs. If he doesn’t show improvement from last year to this year which would amount all star selection, he will not be rendered max contract.

My money on Klay accepting a contract extension this year, atleast just a 2 year extension.

RaiderE

Did you just write, “If a lot of If’s?”

logicpuppy

WRT Cleveland: I wonder how LeBron will feel when two of his max-level guys, Kyrie and Love, don’t play replacement-level defense for their positions.

J Haskins

Trust me, Klay will get the max. When Chandler Parsons, who was drafted in the 2nd round of the same draft, got 15.3 million, that sealed Thompson’s max deal.

RaiderE

I have had the same feeling on the impending Klay deal. If he wants to take a 4yr. 10-11mil deal now for 2-4m yrs., by all means, give it to him. If he wants more, make him earn it on the floor in his contract year. Warriors have his Bird rights, so there is no risk for them.