What a long, strange trip: The most consequential political trends of 2018

By J.M. Rieger, The Washington Post

Monday

Dec 31, 2018 at 6:00 AM

President Donald Trump again dominated 2018 politics, but the year was also notable for what happened, what didn't happen and what it could all mean in 2019.

Here's The Washington Post's list of the political trends that defined the year in politics:

1) Trump's mounting falsehoods

Trump's false or misleading claims more than tripled during his second year in office, from 2,140 in his first year to 7,546 through his first 700 days. And while few Americans believe Trump's false statements, one-fourth of respondents in The Washington Post's first Fact Checker poll still believe the president's repeated — and debunked — falsehoods.

2) The ever-growing investigations into Trump and his associates

Nearly every Trump-led organization was under investigation by the end of his second year in office, and new revelations in the 17 known investigations surrounding Trump brought a flurry of reactions from judges, lawyers and Trump himself. The president also doubled down on his PR campaign to discredit the investigations, which may intensify in 2019 with reports that special counsel Robert Mueller could be nearing the end of his investigation into Russian election interference.

3) Trump's shifting rhetoric

After the killing of Washington Post contributing columnist Jamal Khashoggi at the Saudi consulate in Istanbul in October, Trump initially warned of "severe punishment." But by the time the CIA concluded that Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman was probably involved, Trump had pivoted to openly questioning his intelligence officials. The shifts fit into a pattern of Trump changing his story as facts became clearer, from hush-money payments to his alleged former lovers during the 2016 campaign to continuing to question Russian election interference to ever-shifting price tags for a wall (or "steel slats") on the border with Mexico.

4) Congressional (in)action

From appropriations to criminal justice to opioids to the Farm Bill, Congress showed that it could pass bipartisan legislation despite continued near-record-low approval ratings. But Congress also reflected an increasingly divided country in 2018, fostering an ever-divisive nominating process, conducting partisan investigations and finishing the year with a partial government shutdown, the third of 2018.

5) The Trump show

Even as Trump's White House at times went weeks without a news conference in 2018, Trump himself relied on interviews and television much more during his second year. In the lead-up to the 2018 midterm elections, Trump conducted near-daily interviews, held multiple rallies in some weeks and unleashed a flurry of tweets. And Trump relied on TV networks to broadcast his fights with congressional leaders and the media, at times to distract from other news.

6) The Trump economy

For months, regardless of the day's news, Trump always had a reliable pivot: the economy. U.S. stock markets hit records in September, second quarter GDP topped 4 percent and unemployment continued to drop. But as Trump ramped up his trade wars, touted nonexistent economic policies and leveled frequent attacks on the Federal Reserve, markets became increasingly spooked and key stock benchmarks entered bear market territory by the end of 2018. These metrics combined with rising deficits, spurred in part by underwhelming economic growth and revenue from Trump's tax cuts, all point to an increasingly likely recession ahead of the 2020 elections.

7) What 2018 means for 2020

Record Democratic gains in the 2018 midterm elections may have opened new electoral college advantages for Democrats in 2020, but those advantages may ultimately come down to the party's presidential nominee. While Trump continued to double down on his base — betting his voters won't care what Mueller finds — it is unclear if Trump's base alone will be enough to win re-election in 2020.

8) Political (in)civility

In 2018, Republicans and Democrats moved further away from former first lady Michelle Obama's 2016 mantra: "When they go low, we go high." Former Attorney General Eric Holder told Democrats to fight back, Rep. Maxine Waters, D-Calif., called for the harassment of political opponents and Hillary Clinton all but advocated for incivility. Then-Interior Secretary Ryan Zinke took a shot at a congressman's struggle with alcoholism, Republicans ran candidates with ties to white nationalists, and Trump mocked a woman who accused then-Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh of sexual assault. According to an October PBS NewsHour/NPR/Marist poll, nearly 80 percent of Americans believed this incivility will lead to violence.

9) Trump's unpredictable foreign policy

Even as Trump's "hawkish isolationism" continued in 2018, clamping down on immigration while ramping up protectionist trade policies, his foreign policy doctrine was often defined by its unpredictability: An on-then-off-then-on North Korea summit, dismissing then accepting U.S. intelligence on Russian election interference, accepting then dismissing U.S. intelligence on Khashoggi's killing, and decreasing then increasing then decreasing troop levels abroad, losing foreign policy officials in the process.

10) Trump's "hot" White House

Trump's unprecedented White House turnover continued in 2018, even as he said everyone wants to work in his "hot" White House. Trump is set to enter year three on his third chief of staff and without replacements confirmed to head the Department of Justice, the Environmental Protection Agency, the Department of the Interior and the Department of Defense.

11) The tweets continue

Trump continued to suck the oxygen out of the year on Twitter with spelling errors, new nicknames, new insults, assertions about his intelligence, complaining about his loneliness, tweets about his nuclear button size, tweets about "steel slats," asking for apologies from network heads, touting Michael Jordan, potentially violating an HBO trademark, calling himself "Tariff Man," referring to himself in the third person and of course, "WITCH HUNT!"

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