IT'S the start of the Heineken Cup next week, and I can't say I'm holding my breath about any Welsh success.

Once again it looks like the country will be pinning hopes on Llanelli Scarlets, who have made the knock-out phases more often than not in the last few years.

It is vital that Wales gets at least one team through to the last eight, otherwise it means we are going backwards.

And that puts the pressure right on the men from Stradey Park, because I'm not too hopeful about the other four representatives.

I think Cardiff are suffering from a bad case of the Blues and I'll be surprised if they win a game.

For a team not in the best of form, their opening three games - Sale, away, Leinster, home, and Biarritz, away - couldn't be much tougher.

The Dragons are grouped with Leicester, Ulster and Stade Francais and they might sneak a home win, but you don't fancy them to get anything on their travels.

The Ospreys, who are up against Edinburgh, Toulouse and Leeds, are unpredictable. You can't tell how they'll play from match to match - hardly something to build a successful campaign on.

Celtic Warriors have the personnel to do the job against the likes of Wasps, Perpignan and Calvisano, but you worry about whether they can produce it as a team.

You also have to worry about whether the off-field matters, that seem to be going on and on, will affect them - and the Dragons for that matter.

In fact, until the management of the regional game as a whole is improved I can't see the Celtic League improving the Welsh sides very much.

The concept of having the best Welsh, Scottish and Irish teams in competition is a very good one, and one which is needed to stop us from being left behind by the Zurich Premiership.

But some of the fare being dished up so far this season has been poor.

At the end of the week, you settle down on a Friday night looking forward to a good game of rugby on the television, but you end up switching it off. Some of the matches have been terrible.

In a lot of ways, events on the field are dictated by matters off it and some of the organisation, in the various coaching teams and behind the scenes, leaves a lot to be desired.

Clive Woodward has proved that if you put the basics into place then the rugby looks after itself. You can't expect players to put worries about contracts and their futures to the back of their minds all the time.

I think only when the wrangling stops will we see the benefits of the Celtic League.

That said, I can still see Llanelli Scarlets making their usual impression on the Heineken Cup.

Gareth Jenkins seems to get his teams just right at this time of the year, though it could be his last European tilt for a while.

He has to be favourite to take over as Welsh coach from Steve Hansen at the end of the Six Nations.

I think we should be moving away from the Southern Hemisphere influence and employing someone with a passionate approach to the game.

On both counts, Jenkins is the one with the credentials and the track record.

I have said in the past that he possibly should have got the job two or three coaches ago, but it's a new era and if Jenkins doesn't get it this time then there's something wrong.