Are the Mets the Good Kind of Bad?

There are essentially two kinds of bad seasons a team can have. And the Mets are all but certain to have one of the two. The first kind, and the one they seem destined for, is bad in terms of wins and losses. It's bad because it's often unpleasant to watch. It's bad because another summer passes without them contending for a playoff spot. If you're of a certain age, you may recall the Mets having such a season in the year 2012.

The second kind of bad season is bad in a broader, long-term sense. It's bad because the team not only fails to win now but also sees its chances of winning in the near future diminish. It's bad because the direction of the organization seems to change for the worse in a way that can't be easily corrected. Think 2009 for the Mets, albeit under much different circumstances. This is the kind of bad season the Mets need to avoid.

ENLARGE

The Mets need young players like Zack Wheeler to develop.
Associated Press

Whatever their win total, this can be a somewhat good season for them if two things happen. First, the three prospects they view as cornerstone players—pitchers Matt Harvey and Zack Wheeler and catcher Travis d'Arnaud—continue to emerge as stars. Second, younger players like Ike Davis and Ruben Tejada continue to develop into the kinds of complementary pieces they'll need in the years ahead.

If all that happens, they'll at least be able to say they're moving closer to that elusive window of contention. That is the belief that keeps a shrinking band of loyalists on the bandwagon, and it is the most precious thing the Mets have.

ENLARGE

The Mets need young players like Travis d'Arnaud to develop.
Associated Press

"You never want to concede that anything is more important than the win total," general manager Sandy Alderson said. "But to the extent that players we view as cornerstone players over the next three to five years continue to improve, that's very important to us."

Entering year three of his tenure, Alderson was careful to stress that anything short of a winning record would be viewed as unsuccessful—and for good reason. All this talk of patience and prudence and development amid dreary nights at Citi Field gets old. Cities don't throw ticker-tape parades for teams to celebrate their ascension in Baseball America's farm-system rankings.

But consider the alternative. If the Mets win a few more games in 2013 because Shaun Marcum has a career year, David Wright wins the MVP and their outfield is actually passable, but their top prospects are derailed by injuries and underperformance, would they be better off? You'd have to say no, because none of those things would make them more likely to be a very good team in 2014.

If Harvey and Wheeler finish the year looking like a pair of aces and d'Arnaud emerges as a middle-of-the-order hitter, but the stopgap players in other areas of the roster perform so woefully that the Mets lose 90 games? It'll be ugly, sure, especially in light of the news that Johan Santana likely won't throw a single pitch this year. But the Mets will at least have legitimate young stars to build around.

And with Santana and Jason Bay's salaries coming off the books, Alderson might be able to do his shopping somewhere other than a thrift shop.

"I think we always looked at the first three years as being, uh, somewhat constrained, if some of our most highly-paid players were unable to perform," Alderson said. "We should be past that by the end of 2013, which I think is a good thing."

Still, even the improved payroll outlook belies two things: One, no one will believe the Wilpons can afford a marquee free agent until the Mets land one. Two, the free-agent market keeps getting weaker, resulting in increasing price tags for diminishing talent. If the Mets are one year away from being at least a wild card-caliber team, then the players who will do the most to make that a reality are likely already in the organization.

Money can help the Mets take a decent core and make it better. It can't make up for setbacks to the development of their best young players.

This is not a distinction any team strives for, but if they emerge from 2013 better positioned for 2014, they can at least frame the year in somewhat positive terms.

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