Articles List

Articles List

Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro's hard-line approach to dealing with rising public dissatisfaction with his leadership will exacerbate social tensions in the coming months. We anticipate an increase in public protests and other forms of unrest in the lead-up to the late-2015 legislative elections, but the opposition will avoid large-scale mobilisation of its supporters as it instead focuses on grassroots organising ahead of the polls.

We believe that the Central Bank of Jordan (CBJ) will take advantage of weaker inflation and higher foreign exchange reserves to cut interest rates at least once more over 2015, after a 25 basis points reduction in early-February. We forecast the discount rate to reach 3.75% by the end of the year.

Indonesia's carbonated soft drinks sector will combine intensifying competition and strong growth potential over the next five years. While Coca-Cola Amatil's revenue and margins have been affected by the growing presence of cheaper cola alternatives, The Coca-Cola Company's investment will help to improve efficiency and fuel its competitive presence.

The geothermal sector will offer alternative business opportunities for oilfield service providers amid stagnant drilling activity due to structurally lower oil and gas prices. We see great potential for contract opportunities in Latin America, as highlighted by Schlumberger's recent involvement in Colombia's first geothermal project.

Our expectations of the impact of regulatory reforms continue to play out, one year after secondary regulations were introduced. Operators previously stifled by weak regulations and the dominance of a few players will now be able build on the momentum generated from new reforms.

Oettinger's speech is clear evidence that the EU is going to be stricter in terms of data privacy regulation, but this is unlikely to drastically change market trends. The EU is looking at regulation to regain some supremacy in the tech business, but BMI believes it should be fighting the next battle instead of dwelling too much on the current one.

The growing usage of lightweight materials in the automotive sector in the face of tighter emission standards, coupled with the rising competitiveness of energy-intensive manufacturing operations in the US, will allow the country to attract carbon fibre related production.

BMI View: We hold a bullish outlook for Western Europe LCV sales in 2015 owing to the rise of online retailing, the growing need to replace Europe's ageing LCV fleet, and toughening emissions legislation. We forecast sales to increase by 5.7% in 2015 with sales in the region averaging 3.1% over our five-year forecast period to 2019.