- Last year was short with many BACKtoBACK and even BACKtoBACKtoBACK...not fair comparison
- I never understood a 1 player can account for a win ---you need 5 players
- Can you do the opposite, were a player equals losses?
- How does Field equal auto 3 win...like i said that formula makes no sense you need 5 on court player work as team
- So lack of tanking will get us only 2 wins....
- Other teams improving means we lose 3 ---but we also improved so I had 25 ...makes no sense
- But I will agree with you on the team trainning camp part

Just killing time on a Friday...not much action here at ACC parking lot

Peace

This is all hypothetical.. just playing.. No idea what is going to happen, and my justification was just made out of jest. But I do think 1 player can make a difference.. it happens all the time in the NBA. It's probably the only team sport where one player can make a radical difference in net wins and losses.

I say 33 wins, and that is about as happy-go-lucky-optimistic as I can possibly get.

That's the upper limit to what I could possibly predict here: a 40% win percentage with 2 new players in the starting lineup that are marginally better than their predecessors (until proven otherwise) and 2 rookies that will play significant minutes and undoubtedly hit rookie walls.

I will setup a Big Lotto BALL structure placing within it 1.5 balls with a "W" written on it. Another 2.5 balls with "L" on it.
then draw a ball for each scheduled game. I think that should give decent results

Let me update this once i see vegas odds ---

It's just a job. Grass grows, birds fly, waves pound the sand. I beat people up.

To clarify, I mean no major injuries that cost extended stretches of games (like 10+ games) to a major player - mainly Bargnani and Lowry.

Intersting that you're starting with WP numbers, and worrying about Bargnani being injured for any strech of time. The WP crowd considers Bargnani a hitorically unproductive player, while rating both his backups, Johnson and Davis, very highly. Thus from a WP view, the more minutes Johnson and Davis can get from Bargnani, the more wins. Personally, I think Bargnani is an outlier in the metric, and not reallly the worst player of all time, but none the less, I'm not so worried about PF with the depth the team has there.

Lowry is of course rated worse than Calderon by WP, but I view him as the key to the season because I think a Casey team will work overall better with him. Still, I'm hoping Calderon stays and plays 20minuts in a reserve roll, with Lowry moving over to off guard for a few minutes a game to accomodate.

I'm predicting 40 wins, with the addition of Fields, Lowry, Ross and JV helping Casey making Toronto a Top 5 defensive team that teams hate to play.

I say 33 wins, and that is about as happy-go-lucky-optimistic as I can possibly get.

That's the upper limit to what I could possibly predict here: a 40% win percentage with 2 new players in the starting lineup that are marginally better than their predecessors (until proven otherwise) and 2 rookies that will play significant minutes and undoubtedly hit rookie walls.

That's only 5 wins over last year's win % (which extrapolated to 82 games would be 28 wins).

With the Raptors (hopefully) not tanking again at the end of the season by auditioning D league players, that might cover those 5 games on it's own.

And if you set aside individual player evaluations, a full training camp will be a big positive too.

Intersting that you're starting with WP numbers, and worrying about Bargnani being injured for any strech of time. The WP crowd considers Bargnani a hitorically unproductive player, while rating both his backups, Johnson and Davis, very highly. Thus from a WP view, the more minutes Johnson and Davis can get from Bargnani, the more wins. Personally, I think Bargnani is an outlier in the metric, and not reallly the worst player of all time, but none the less, I'm not so worried about PF with the depth the team has there.

Lowry is of course rated worse than Calderon by WP, but I view him as the key to the season because I think a Casey team will work overall better with him. Still, I'm hoping Calderon stays and plays 20minuts in a reserve roll, with Lowry moving over to off guard for a few minutes a game to accomodate.

I'm predicting 40 wins, with the addition of Fields, Lowry, Ross and JV helping Casey making Toronto a Top 5 defensive team that teams hate to play.

Did you read my original post? And if you did (and I mean this sincerely and respectfully), did you read it all? I am guilty of having read something wrong, misinterpreted, or skipped something altogether. Here is my original post:

Assuming Bargnani can remain healthy and be more like the player he showed in about 17 games versus the other 14 that will likely add wins (versus the negative he currently is). Considering in 2010-11 Bargnani produced a negative 6.4 wins (I guess that would be a positive 6.4 losses produced) having him go positive is not out of the question. DeRozan not having to be the focal point of the offense might improve his efficiency and take him positive in the wins produced as well. The Raps then might be pushing .500!

And good Lord don't get me started if Fields returns to the 11.6 wins he produced in 2010-11 as a rookie and Lowry goes back to 9.3. Could they be plus .500?!?!?! I have to calm down here.

Considering the collective 38 wins from the roster in 2010-11 and the 33.7 plus my rookie phantom numbers of 38 again, I'm going with 38 wins and 8th seed..... final answer.

Considering how horrible Bargnani played in 13-15 of his 31 games last year and contributing 'just' -0.9W while having contributed -6.4W in '10-11, him going positive is not out of the question with the assumption he plays more like the other 16-18 games.

A lot of this is just fun on my part with the WP. Games are played on the court, not calculators. And I very much agree with the bold in your post.

I'd be game for that for sure! I'm saying the Raps go 36-46, and I for one am cool with that. Again, try and remember we were (I think, I'm sure someone here remembers) 28th in defense before Casey got here and then we bumped up to 17th...that is stunning!

I'm not kidding either. A team that wasn't exactly brimming with all stars, or defensive specialists, that is an incredible feat. So I think this year with the longer schedule and new talent I see us being very close to a playoff team, but maybe just a little outside. I also think that we have the ability to go from 17th to potentially a top 10 defensive team. I'm excited!!!!

I also hope I'm wrong and that our record is better, so don't come at me with the hatin'!