According to one Florida hurricane scientist I spoke to this week, “A lot of what we do next season starts right about now. We’ll evaluate how the models performed, and assess some of the newer models. This time frame is crucial for the new models that we’ll be using next year. A delay now will impact us for next year. It will not allow us to make improvements. And delay right now will affect us in moving forward as we hoped.”

A grid-point model overlaid across the United States. (Penn State)

Of most interest to me is the development of a new global forecast model known as the FIM model.

Right now there are two forecast models for storm tracks that far outperform the others — the European and Global Forecast System, or American GFS, models. When there’s a storm in the Atlantic you will almost always see forecasters defer to either the European or GFS model. If there were a third model, and two of the three agreed upon a solution, there would be a lot higher confidence in a track forecast.

What is the FIM model? It’s a new approach to global modeling.

Because they require such vast computing power, the global models, which simulate weather for every point around the globe, have not been based upon a traditional grid point forecast. Instead they are known as spectral models, meaning they issue forecasts that look something like undulating ocean waves. It’s fairly technical, so I won’t go into the details.

Another problem with grid point forecasts is the circular nature of the globe — how does one have uniform grid boxes further away from the equator (this is the same problem map makers face when translating the globe to a flat surface, and its why Greenland looks so big on maps). The answer appears to be an icosahedral global grid, which looks something like this:

An icosahedral global grid. (NOAA)

Using this icosahedral grid system, he FIM model (see a background paper on the FIM model, .pdf here), then, could become the first global, grid-point model that is competitive with the European and GFS forecast models. “Experimentally it’s been shown to be a good tool,” the hurricane scientist told me. But to ensure the model is used more by forecasters during next year’s hurricane season, evaluation work needs to be done now.

Getting scientists back to work now would help ensure those kinds of evaluations can be done, but further delays probably would set the program back significantly.

“And we’re almost guaranteed it’s not going to be this quiet next year,” the scientist said.