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The World's Best Schools For Business And Economics In 2016

When students consider colleges they usually worry most about whether they meet the requirements for admission. With highly selective colleges, of course, that's only the opening bid; what's in your hand well above that lets you win the round.

Other factors, however, put even the strongest candidates at risk when it comes to college acceptances. One particularly maddening and unpredictable factor over which applicants have no control is the institution's admission rate from the previous year. That's the percentage of applicants admitted that gets breathlessly reported in the media, particularly as it approaches zero. (Walden College in "Doonesbury"rocketed to #1 in the rankings the year it rejected all its applicants.) Colleges and universities are pleased when their admit rates fall because they look more exclusive and they may inch up in rankings.

Parents often lament, "My daughter had the exact same profile as our neighbor's kid. He got into [add your favorite prominent college here] but she didn't. Why not?" It seems clear to them that equally strong applicants should get equal results, but it's not that simple.

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To begin with, every institution has to set an annual goal for its freshman class size. Financial, logistical, athletic, special cases and academic concerns then impinge on admission deans' and directors' calculations. These numbers are constantly being evaluated and revised. The admission cycle, in a sense, never ends.

Admission offices are the lifeblood of their institutions, since without students they would cease to exist. The numbers need to come in precisely on target for the college to meet all its goals, particularly budgetary ones. Meeting the numbers is no joke, either. If the class target number isn't met, cutbacks or worse may be in order. On the other hand, an overcrowded class requires more teachers, more housing, and more financial aid, throwing the finely-tuned campus operating system out of whack. Admission deans can be fired for not meeting the numbers either way. Some colleges have even ended up housing students in temporary situations, making triples out of dorm rooms made for two or even paying students to take a year off before matriculating, none of which looks good.

Experienced admission deans are experts at predicting results; with new methods of data collection, they can be even more precise. But as finely tuned as the methodology is, it is not infallible. Colleges with long histories can usually predict fairly accurately the percentage of students accepted who will ultimately enroll. In some years, however, the institution may see a surge of popularity or a drop due to any number of reasons: a well-known figure enrolling, a spectacular athletic season, a scandal or widely-reported campus unrest. Any of these developments can affect student enrollment, even at the last minute when deans hope the class can be officially "put to bed."