A consumer survey shows a significant increase in demand for the iPhone 5 …

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The results of a recent ChangeWave survey conducted in August shows a strong interest in Apple's next-generation iPhone hardware. Dubbed the "iPhone 5," it is widely expected to be unveiled by Apple in the next few weeks and will likely ship by mid-October. Meanwhile, demand for the iPhone 4, which has now been on the market for well over 12 months, seems to continue unabated.

ChangeWave surveyed 2,200 potential smartphone buyers at the behest of RBC Capital to gauge the interest in Apple's newest hardware, according to Fortune. Nearly one-third of the respondents were either "very likely" or "somewhat likely" to buy an iPhone 5 when Apple makes it available. In comparison, just 25 percent of respondents were planning an iPhone 4 purchase in a similar survey conducted last June. The high demand echoes results from an earlier ChangeWave survey from June, which showed a strong preference for iPhones over Android and RIM devices among those surveyed.

RBC Capital analyst Mike Abramsky characterized the results as "unprecedented iPhone 5 demand." We tend to agree, especially given the fact that the device is expected to be a minor update to the current iPhone 4 design.

One factor that may be increasing the demand over the last upgrade cycle is the longer time between hardware updates. Apple has typically released a new iPhone in late June or early July ever since the first iPhone was introduced in 2007. The extra few months this time around will allow many iPhone 4 buyers to qualify for an early subsidized upgrade. Another factor may be the expected release of the iPhone on Sprint and possibly T-mobile. Over half of the survey respondents currently on Sprint or T-mobile said they would be interested in the iPhone 5 if it became available on their carrier of choice.

Despite the higher demand for an updated iPhone, however, demand for the current iPhone 4 hasn't shown any signs of the typical drop in the months leading up to summer. In the past, sales typically peaked in Apple's fiscal forth quarter (July, August, September) just as new iPhone hardware was released. Sales would taper down the following quarters until a new model was released a year later.

The iPhone 4 has bucked that trend, with sales continuing to grow since its launch last summer up to a record 20 million units last quarter. Stern Agee analyst Shaw Wu noted, according to All Things Digital, that sales remain surprisingly strong. "The reason why this is remarkable is demand for iPhone 4 remains fairly robust despite it being well known that there will be an upcoming iPhone 5 refresh," Wu wrote. "We had modeled a sizeable quarter-to-quarter decline to reflect a pause and inventory drawdown ahead of a refresh and we now think this is conservative."

The iPhone 4 also remains the top selling device at AT&T and Verizon, according to checks Canaccord Genuity analyst T. Michael Walkley.

The increased demand for both the currently shipping iPhone 4 and the hotly anticipated iPhone 5 is particularly good news for Apple. According to the company's fiscal third quarter results, the iPhone now accounts for nearly half of its revenue.

Still, releasing what will be, by most accounts, a fairly minor hardware upgrade is a risk. While not without their downsides, including limited battery life, several vendors have released 4G-compatible Android handsets with 4" or larger screens. That could put Apple at a competitive disadvantage if it hopes to hold on to its spot at the top of the smartphone market.

i was excited for a iphone5 until i started reading that chances are its the same size as the current iphone. i would like a 4.3 screen and if im gonna lock in for another 2 years 4g capable even though im not in 4g area yet. this is coming from a verizon user with a droid incredible.

Still, releasing what will be, by most accounts, a fairly minor hardware upgrade is a risk. While not without their downsides, including limited battery life, several vendors have released 4G-compatible Android handsets with 4" or larger screens. That could put Apple at a competitive disadvantage if it hopes to hold on to its spot at the top of the smartphone market.

Not if the continuing demand for the iPhone 4 is any indication. A conservative upgrade sounds like a much better deal than a complete change in design.

I suspect improving the battery life (by going dual core and underclocking) is going to give Apple's iPhone sales a much bigger boost than a bigger screen or going to 4G.

i was excited for a iphone5 until i started reading that chances are its the same size as the current iphone. i would like a 4.3 screen and if im gonna lock in for another 2 years 4g capable even though im not in 4g area yet. this is coming from a verizon user with a droid incredible.

I'd like a 4" screen, if they don't make the phone much bigger in order to squeeze it in. Otherwise, I'd rather they stick with the same size screen. I've used some of those really big phones, and they're too big. I don't have large hands, and they quickly become uncomfortable. As most of the population doesn't have large hands, i would think that a really big phone would not be a selling point for most people.

That is 18% of Apple's revenue for that quarter and it's no surprise given how things have been trending the last few years for Apple. They are up to 6% worldwide and 13% US install base for Mac OS tho, which is more than they've had in literally decades.

In the blurb below the article on teh front page, Ars refers to the iPhone 4 as "aging". It's been on the market over a year, I don't think the quotes are needed. It really is aging, but many still feel it's better than other phones out there so demand is still high. I'm on Sprint and my wife and I are both very happy w/all the talk of the iPhone 5 coming to our network.

That is 18% of Apple's revenue for that quarter and it's no surprise given how things have been trending the last few years for Apple. They are up to 6% worldwide and 13% US install base for Mac OS tho, which is more than they've had in literally decades.

Keep in mind that was a weak quarter for the Mac as people held off purchases waiting for Lion and the attendant hardware updates. I think the coming quarter results will be much stronger even accounting for the back to school rush.

It's not that revenue from Macs has decreased; in fact, demand for Macs has never been stronger.

It's just that revenue from iOS devices has far outstripped the Mac, and transformed the company in the process.

Well, right. My point is that the Mac has never been less important to Apple than it is now. At 18%, it's still important, and they'd miss it if it was gone. But it's becoming kind of a sideline business for what is really an iOS company now.

The total Mac sales numbers are roughly the same (or more) as they has ever been; the iPhone and iPad slices were *added* over the past few years. Mac's aren't a smaller piece of the pie -- the pie has become much, *much* larger.

The total Mac sales numbers are roughly the same (or more) as they has ever been; the iPhone and iPad slices were *added* over the past few years. Mac's aren't a smaller piece of the pie -- the pie has become much, *much* larger.

They've quadrupled Mac sales in the last decade, from 827k in Q3Y01 to 3947k in Q3Y11.

How is it that everyone can afford to upgrade their iPhone each new version? More importantly, why is it so urgent to upgrade? I'm still using my first gen and don't really see a reason.

Haha. If everyone upgraded you'd see a 10x increase in iPhone sales.

No, a lot of it is that after two years the price of last years iPhone drops to $49, subsidized. In other words, in the US, if you're running a 1st gen iPhone it is cheaper for you to upgrade to an iPhone 3GS than it is up replace the battery of your four year old phone.

i was excited for a iphone5 until i started reading that chances are its the same size as the current iphone. i would like a 4.3 screen and if im gonna lock in for another 2 years 4g capable even though im not in 4g area yet. this is coming from a verizon user with a droid incredible.

I'd like a 4" screen, if they don't make the phone much bigger in order to squeeze it in. Otherwise, I'd rather they stick with the same size screen. I've used some of those really big phones, and they're too big. I don't have large hands, and they quickly become uncomfortable. As most of the population doesn't have large hands, i would think that a really big phone would not be a selling point for most people.

I had to pull the trigger on a new T-Mobile Android phone this past spring (HTC Sensation 4G) instead of waiting for iPhone to come to my carrier--and my excitement was tempered by the expectation that Wi-Fi calling will likely be a "no show" on the iPhone.

The experience on the HTC has been less than stellar, though the form factor and solid feel are nice. I was also taken aback when I visited my brother who has in iPhone 4--in comparison, the screen seems quite small now, though it looks superb. It appears that Apple has backed itself into a corner a bit here: if they increase the screen size then the ppi will go down, assuming they keep the same fixed pixel dimensions. Would 4" screen with the same number of pixels really qualify as a "Retina Display"? I guess Apple can call it anything they want, but if one can truly discern pixels at the typical viewing distance the marketing job is quite a bit harder.

Just a variation on some other comments, but I feel looking at it this way adds its own perspective:

68% (or more - given "other") of Apple's income comes from products that didn't exist in areas that Apple didn't operate in before 2007.

80% or more comes from products intro'ed since 2001 (the first iPod).

And this is happening while Apple's still experiencing strong, continuing growth in its previous product lines.

And with the smallest number of SKU's of any of their competitors in virtually every product area they're in - by far!

Amazing for a company of this size and age (which was being written off as "Dead Computer Company Walking in 1996). Probably unprecedented in biz history.

As much as I despise the way he does business, I would attribute 90% of this success directly to Steve Jobs' 1997 return as CEO (this is including indirect impacts like the people he choose to hire, i.e. Johnathan Ives). The man really is brilliant businessman.

I'm not sure what a minor refresh means. It seems to me that moving to a dual core SoC with a much better GPU, an 8 MP camera, and possibly a dual GSM/CDMA design isn't a major upgrade, what is?

So if they change the case, that would allow it to be called a major upgrade, but changing most everything inside isn't? Isn't that backwards?

Generally, I agree.

On the other hand, comparing the iPhone 3GS with iPhone 4 a lot more than just the outer shell changed. You had the faster chip, much better camera, front-facing camera, 'n' WiFi, as well as a massively improved screen and different outer shell look.

In contrast, the iPhone 3 to 3GS just gave a moderately faster chip (much less of a bump than A4 to A5 as seen on the iPad) and slightly improved camera, plus some battery life improvements. The "4S" rumors sound just a little more drastic than that, but not anywhere near the 3GS -> 4 leap.

I've waiting for the iPhone 5 since July when my contract ran out. I would prefer the current screen size. I don't care about 4G, but if it's there I'll take it.

I just hope I don't have to wait too long after launch before I can easily get one. I don't do lines.

On the same boat. My iphone 4 got water damaged a month or so ago. I can either replace it for a $199 fee or wait for the new iteration. It would be nice to get specs to help make up my mind but my understanding is that this won't happen until late this month... augh :-(

How is it that everyone can afford to upgrade their iPhone each new version? More importantly, why is it so urgent to upgrade? I'm still using my first gen and don't really see a reason.

For me, AT&T would allow the purchase of subsidized iPhones at each yearly update; I of course had to re-up for another 2 years however.

I had to switch to Verizon since it's AT&T is rather shit in the NYC area. Verizon is a God-send, but I'll have to wait 18 months for my next upgrade. My iPhone 4 is perfect as far as I'm concerned, so until it gets LTE abilities I have zero reason to upgrade anyway.

I wish APPL would hurry the hell up. I am so sick of my 3G, yes I said Three GEE phone. It is nearly unusable. Apps crashing to to the screen, or not launching, searching for a location on Gmaps is a joke. The last OS update really slowed the speed and functionality of the machine. I have cash monies ready to go for the next phone, they just need to get it announced so I can preorder.

"That could put Apple at a competitive disadvantage if it hopes to hold on to its spot at the top of the smartphone market."

I'll be sure to let Tim know next time I see him. As I understand it, the Apple customer base is just dying to use chipsets that frequently lock up the phone, that burn power like there's no tomorrow, and that work in only limited parts of the country. 4G, in its current state, would totally add to the iPhone experience.

Or, in the real world, Apple could get on with the grand plan that iCloud represents, and which its competitors completely do not understand; and work once again on their next killer feature.

i was excited for a iphone5 until i started reading that chances are its the same size as the current iphone. i would like a 4.3 screen and if im gonna lock in for another 2 years 4g capable even though im not in 4g area yet. this is coming from a verizon user with a droid incredible.

I'd like a 4" screen, if they don't make the phone much bigger in order to squeeze it in. Otherwise, I'd rather they stick with the same size screen. I've used some of those really big phones, and they're too big. I don't have large hands, and they quickly become uncomfortable. As most of the population doesn't have large hands, i would think that a really big phone would not be a selling point for most people.

I'd be curious to know how large the demand for a larger screen is.

One thing I COULD imagine happening (which no-one seems to have in their mental roadmap) is Apple splitting the product line into the current size and a new larger screen size. Same number of pixels, so SW compatible, just physically larger. Essentially the equivalent of having 15" and 17" laptops.

IF the demand is there (and I honestly don't know either way) this seems like a fairly easy change for Apple to make; to the extent that, if Apple does NOT do this, I suspect what that really means is that the crowd demanding large screens are a very loud minority --- who probably wouldn't buy Apple anyway for ideological reasons.

How is it that everyone can afford to upgrade their iPhone each new version? More importantly, why is it so urgent to upgrade? I'm still using my first gen and don't really see a reason.

So you DON'T use your iPhone as a smartphone then?Seriously, the difference between iPhone 1 and 4 is night and day. Web browsing, for example, is just so much more pleasant. Likewise for reading mail.

No-one is claiming a need to upgrade their iPhone every new version. One can be interested in what's new without planning to buy it. Heck, plenty of Apple people are never going to buy Windows, but they're interested in what's new in Win8, likewise Android people want to see what's new in iOS5 (so they can know what to rip off next :-) ), etc etc

How is it that everyone can afford to upgrade their iPhone each new version? More importantly, why is it so urgent to upgrade? I'm still using my first gen and don't really see a reason.

Wait a minute...

You're going to spend $2,000+ over the last year and next, instead of $2,200+... to have a iPhone 1st gen instead of iPhone 4?

For <10% less overall, you are going to lose GPS, the ability to update to new versions of iOS, 3g, a new battery, double screen resolution, a new set of cables and headphones and wall plugs, full access to all apps, etc. etc.

How is it that everyone can afford to upgrade their iPhone each new version? More importantly, why is it so urgent to upgrade? I'm still using my first gen and don't really see a reason.

I had to upgrade to an iPhone 4 from a 3G in order to use my phone... The newer software updates made the phone so slow, it took 20 seconds to load the SMS list, 15 seconds to load the e-mail, apps crashed and battery-life was poor. (Because the CPU was constantly peaking).

Also, the Retina display isn't just marketing - it really IS way better than the traditional DPI displays. I read a lot on my iPhone, and it makes a HUGE difference.

Alas, now my iPhone 4 was stolen, so I'm forced to get SOMETHING. Given my investment in iPhone apps, and Nokia's unwillingness to release the god-damn Sea Ray already, it'll probably be an iPhone.

iPhone 4 was awesome, but i m eagerly waiting for iPhone 5, I heartily believe that iPhone 5 and its features will make a huge difference.For more information and latest update about iphone5 you can check http://iphone5shopping.com this site.

I've waiting for the iPhone 5 since July when my contract ran out. I would prefer the current screen size. I don't care about 4G, but if it's there I'll take it.

I'm prepared to stick my neck out and say it won't be 4G. When the original iPhone came out, it was EDGE only despite the fact that the market had many 3G devices. Apple's reasoning was that the battery life was poor and since 4G has the same issues, I just can't see them doing that.

Secondly, my understanding is that 4G in the USA means something completely different in the rest of the world. So a 4G iPhone would have to be USA specific and the technology wouldn't make the slightest difference to the vast majority of people. I'm prepared to be corrected on this one because my understanding of the various technologies that claim to be 4G is shaky at best.

If I was a betting man, I suspect that the iPhone 5 will probably be more an iPhone 4S. It'll have a faster processor to match the iPad 2, iOS5, better front and rear cameras (without compromising the current design), option of more memory and (maybe) the dual CMDA/GSM functionality so that only one SKU is needed to support all markets. I really don't think there will be anything more than that as Apple is not known for making massive changes to the hardware from one product to the next.

I'm almost tempted to suggest that the actual design will be the same which will make it easier for the whole ecosystem of accessories as the current products will already be compatible with the new hardware.

How is it that everyone can afford to upgrade their iPhone each new version?

If you're in the UK, smart people (who have the money) go prepaid.

The white iPhone 4 (16GB) on O2's cheapest tariff gives you £232.99 upfront fee and £32.50/month contract for 18 months. For that you get 100 minutes, 500 texts and 500MB data). The iPhone direct from Apple on O2's cheapest PAYG tariff gives you £510 upfront fee and £10/month for no minimum term. For that you get 90 minutes, 300 texts and 500MB.

After 13 months the TCO is better for pre-paid (£640) than for contract (£655.49). After 18 months (your minimum contract term) you'd have saved £127.99 going pre-paid. The other thing not to forget is that the resale value after 12 months for an unlocked iPhone on eBay is (typically) £100 more than a locked version. At present an unlocked 3GS is selling for £240 on eBay and when the iPhone 5 comes out, I'd expect this resale value to be the same (if not slightly more) for the iPhone 4.

So you could buy PAYG, change the phone in a year and then sell it to finance the next one. The total cost over one year for your phone would be £630 - £240 (resale) = £390 or £32.50 per month.

In short, if you can afford to buy the phone upfront then you can change it every year (by selling the old one to part finance the new one) and it'll cost you the same per month as someone who is locked to an 18 month contract.

How is it that everyone can afford to upgrade their iPhone each new version? More importantly, why is it so urgent to upgrade? I'm still using my first gen and don't really see a reason.

So you DON'T use your iPhone as a smartphone then?Seriously, the difference between iPhone 1 and 4 is night and day. Web browsing, for example, is just so much more pleasant. Likewise for reading mail.

No-one is claiming a need to upgrade their iPhone every new version. One can be interested in what's new without planning to buy it. Heck, plenty of Apple people are never going to buy Windows, but they're interested in what's new in Win8, likewise Android people want to see what's new in iOS5 (so they can know what to rip off next :-) ), etc etc

The iPhone 4 was my first upgrade from the original iPhone, which still soldiers on today around the house as an outsized iPod Touch. Given how smooth and responsive the iPhone 4 is on the latest iOS 5 betas, I think that I'll be happy with the 4 for another few years particularly when it still sports the crispest screen you can get on a phone today.