When the IPCC’s 5th Assessment Report was published in 2013, it estimated that such a doubling of CO2 was likely to produce warming within the range of 1.5 to 4.5 °C as the Earth reaches a new equilibrium.

However, preliminary estimates calculated from the latest global climate models (being used in the current IPCC assessment, due out in 2021) are far higher than with the previous generation of models.

Early reports are predicting that a doubling of CO2 may in fact produce between 2.8 and 5.8 °C of warming.

Incredibly, at least 8 of the latest models produced by leading research centers in the United States, the United Kingdom, Canada and France are showing climate sensitivity of 5 °C or warmer.

To restrict warming to 2°C above pre-industrial levels, the world needs to triple its current emission reduction pledges. If that’s not bad enough, to restrict global warming to 1.5°C, global ambition needs to increase five fold.

Even worse if we are indeed at 1.73 degrees C. above pre industrial already.Geo engineering not possible, going back to less than 300 ppm……Feedbacks have already kicked in.A one third reduction in industrial activities giving one degree on top of the already almost 2 degrees, Global dimming. Within weeks.The ant/arctic already into above 5 degrees av.temp.rise.

No panic, keep our shield intact by burning as much coal as possible.Keep infrastructure working as long as possible, economy going fine until the very end.

If we must leave this wonderfull planet as we know it, the universe as describes by our minds, our made up delusion of words,then each of us should make effort to search and find the spirit, our spiritual life does not require natural sources, just personal power.Let us let go of our personalities and save up personal power, hunt for power which is freedom.Let us dethrone selp pity, our internal dialogue and be ruthless, have a lack of self pity and importance.To become fearless, ditch the fool/clown inside your head, be always aware of your death, be a natural warrior tuned to survive.

We are running out of options here on mother Earth.We need to spread our wings and explore the unknown, enhance our perception, go for the windy side of life.A rebirth, a true awakening. Goal of all religion and philosophy, our reason for being here and there.Magic and the holy grail for the taking, at our fingertips if we dare use our true nature, our true silent mind.

Alright, drifting a bit.....

Anyone can see this is not going to end well for mammals and likely complex organic life as we know it.I see only one solution, go for the spirit and since it takes time to forge your energetic sphere into a functional unit,time is the thing we are running out of, collectively as well as you being petty little person you.From the location of reason you can see the other side as clear as a picture, the irrational.Philosophy does not work for it is not the tool to grasp the unknown, to understand what is happening.We humans need to learn to shut up and bring internal silence into focus, make ourselves percieve energy as real, vibrating and flowing.Not by ingesting magic mushrooms or LSD, but a natural way of tuning into other than the standard social heap of nonsense we are used to.

You can learn to experience your own personal ally, true love and happiness right inside you, just like this world we speak of, an internal affair.

al·ly (ə-lī′, ăl′ī)v. al·lied, al·ly·ing, al·lies v.tr.1. To place in a friendly association, as by treaty: Italy allied itself with Germany during World War II.2. To unite or connect in a personal relationship, as in friendship or marriage.v.intr.To enter into an alliance: Several tribes allied to fend off the invaders.n. (ăl′ī, ə-lī′)pl. al·lies 1. One that is allied with another, especially by treaty: entered the war as an ally of France.2. a. One in helpful association with another: legislators who are allies on most issues. See Synonyms at partner.b. An animal that cooperates with another animal of the same species in an alliance.

That is why I am prepping, to hold our fortress, our base as long as possible.Our personal jumping ground into the unknown.

RIP, Okjökull.The first of Iceland's glaciers to disappear due to climate change will be memorialized with a plaque, which will be unveiled next month.“This will be the first monument to a glacier lost to climate change anywhere in the world,” said anthropologist Cymene Howe of Rice University in Houston, in a statement. “By marking Ok’s passing, we hope to draw attention to what is being lost as Earth’s glaciers expire."(The English name of the glacier is "Ok glacier")"These bodies of ice are the largest freshwater reserves on the planet and frozen within them are histories of the atmosphere," Howe said.

At least they expelled the corrupt central bank system, a great achievenment that we should all follow.Yes, that includes the FED's tied to Zion and terror, CIA and Mossad.

“One of our Icelandic colleagues put it very wisely when he said, ‘Memorials are not for the dead; they are for the living,'” Howe said. “With this memorial, we want to underscore that it is up to us, the living, to collectively respond to the rapid loss of glaciers and the ongoing impacts of climate change."For Ok glacier it is already too late; it is now what scientists call ‘dead ice.'”

About 100 years ago, the glacier covered almost 6 square miles of a mountainside in western Iceland and measured 50 meters thick.Climate change: Why Trump’s panel on climate science is controversialThe plaque on the glacier reads: “In the next 200 years, all our glaciers are expected to follow the same path, This monument is to acknowledge that we know what is happening and what needs to be done. Only you know if we did it.”The memorial will be officially unveiled during a ceremony in August.

This article is the closest I've seen yet to finally identifying the pattern of scientists consistently underestimating climate change and getting caught with their pants down. What a breath of fresh air it is, albeit way too academic in style, hence few will read it. We will probably see many more articles like this in time, with some degree of blame/shame rightly served up to them for their bias/cowardice:

The activist community underplays the potential downside because they feel that if they talked honestly about the possible effects the news would be so overwhelmingly bad as to discourage folks from trying to make any attempt.

I can’t say that is a good or bad strategy, but it does assist in pulling the public into a coma.

Then you have the guys who want some minimal measure and tout that as fixing the problem. The Paris accords come to mind but also the crowd that promotes heavy green infrastructure investment to grow the economy.

Another problem is that some of the most left-leaning countries are suffering from cognitive dissonance. Norway has the most EVs but is drunk on oil-wealth. Iceland's economy relies on tourism (most from air travel) and yet moans the loss of glaciers. Sustainability requires powerdown and that has an unacceptable economic cost even to those who are ideologically sympathetic to the cause.

HALL OF SHAME:-Short welched on a bet and should be shunned.-Frequent-flyers should not cry crocodile-tears over climate-change.

Well, this is interesting listen to me. I don't like Peterson necessarily, and particularly that Long... 'scientitist, he mentions (a junk scientist, I believe), but he gave a mostly realistic answer except for the foolish thing like creating more geniuses. How are geniuses created anyway?

Peterson is out of his element in talking about climate change. He softballs his denialism in such a way that it almost sounds like he's not a denialist, which is why this sort of rhetoric is so dangerous. It sounds all too rational but is still, ultimately, denialism. It's not that the predictions get less and less accurate over time, but that they converge. In other words, the present catches up with the future. Earth gives way to McKibben's Eaarth, etc... The frog realizes it has now boiled in the pot. All of the bright green prescriptions that could have theoretically led us this way or that give way to the path we actually took (mostly brown tech) and its locked-in fate of ecological feedback loops and inertia. That is the reality we're living now. Consequences.

HALL OF SHAME:-Short welched on a bet and should be shunned.-Frequent-flyers should not cry crocodile-tears over climate-change.

By properly educating them and allowing them to grow into what they are capable of.

Case in point, if Einstein had been born in the 1920's-30's Germany before his "genius" was exposed, what probably would have been his fate?

How many geniuses did Jim Crow and slavery deny the US? Genocide and marginalization of the native Americans whose land we stole and currently live on?

What about the various religions which attack science at it's core, how many geniuses do they stifle in dogmatic obedience to ancient fallacies.

Want very smart people who can help solve very hard problems, put the growth of them ahead of profits, and it will happen here. Instead we monetize/politicize education and lose how many people who have the capability but were denied the opportunity by either out right bigoted prejudice (whether religious or racist) or just greed over intelligence in education.

How cathartic it is to give voice to your fury, to wallow in self-righteousness, in helplessness, in self-serving self-pity.

asg70 wrote:Another problem is that some of the most left-leaning countries are suffering from cognitive dissonance. Norway has the most EVs but is drunk on oil-wealth. Iceland's economy relies on tourism (most from air travel) and yet moans the loss of glaciers. Sustainability requires powerdown and that has an unacceptable economic cost even to those who are ideologically sympathetic to the cause.

That simple fact I bolded above seems lost on the vast majority of folks who claim to be concerned about climate change.

Here’s a different way of looking at the run away climate. Although even this author seems unable to accept, or mouth, the unassailable outcome, our population will crash.

The planet’s land absorbs carbon pollution today only because of a great “natural subsidy,” said Louis Verchot, the report co-author. The 70 percent of ice-free land surface managed by people actually produces five gigatons of greenhouse gases a year. The remaining land surface—the 30 percent in nature’s control—sucks up 11 gigatons. So while the land surface absorbs about six gigatons of carbon on net, this has nothing to do with people.

“The land is out of balance in areas that we are managing,” Verchot said. “The biosphere is offsetting the carbon emissions, but that’s not a reason to call the land in balance.” He called this absorption an “additional gift of nature,” but it may be more apt to call it the final gift of nature. And at some point in the coming century—as more forests are felled and as demand for beef grows—this gift could become a curse, and the land will spew greenhouse gases into the air as ferociously as humanity does today.

Newfie wrote:Here’s a different way of looking at the run away climate. Although even this author seems unable to accept, or mouth, the unassailable outcome, our population will crash.

The planet’s land absorbs carbon pollution today only because of a great “natural subsidy,” said Louis Verchot, the report co-author. The 70 percent of ice-free land surface managed by people actually produces five gigatons of greenhouse gases a year. The remaining land surface—the 30 percent in nature’s control—sucks up 11 gigatons. So while the land surface absorbs about six gigatons of carbon on net, this has nothing to do with people.

“The land is out of balance in areas that we are managing,” Verchot said. “The biosphere is offsetting the carbon emissions, but that’s not a reason to call the land in balance.” He called this absorption an “additional gift of nature,” but it may be more apt to call it the final gift of nature. And at some point in the coming century—as more forests are felled and as demand for beef grows—this gift could become a curse, and the land will spew greenhouse gases into the air as ferociously as humanity does today.

Yes and in past epochs this runaway feedback cycle has resulted in a hothouse Earth. Basically, we have triggerered a geologic climatic event that could lead to disappearance of much of life currently existing on Earth. Welcome to the Anthropocene

Yes and in past epochs this runaway feedback cycle has resulted in a hothouse Earth. Basically, we have triggerered a geologic climatic event that could lead to disappearance of much of life currently existing on Earth. Welcome to the Anthropocene

what a complete load of horse manure. Who pray tell was around back then to document this "hothouse Earth" that was created by feedbacks? You do realize how paleontologists put together ancient history dont' you? Basically there is no way whatsoever of knowing precisely what caused anything....which is why there are a host of theories out there. And the "Anthropocene" does not exist according to the authority...International Commission on Stratigraphy.

But lets not let facts get in the way of a good hand-wringing exercise.

....... Basically there is no way whatsoever of knowing precisely what caused anything....which is why there are a host of theories out there.

Yes. Manure, from one who claims to be educated. I don't know "precisely" why my back hurts today (as in the "precise" physiological processes involved), but I can be pretty damn sure it is related to, and a consequence of, the fact that I moved 20 sheets of plywood yesterday. And there is plenty of evidence that if a shitload of CO2 gets dumped into the atmosphere, especially in a geologically short period of time, temperatures are likely to rise faster than many lifeforms can adapt.I kept aquariums for many years and, when I was a kid, I discovered that when a fish died, if I didn't remove it pretty quickly, the filter system would get overwhelmed from the byproducts of decay and the increasing imbalance would cause more fish to die, which would increase that imbalance, causing the whole system to crash into another state. Poof! In a few days my nice aquarium full of happy fish became a stinky swamp full of happy, mostly anaerobic, slime.In the case of AGW, not only are we adding "decay products" (CO2, methane, etc.) at an accelerating rate, we are adding more "fish" (humans producing waste) to the tank, all-the-while, reducing our filter size via deforestation, reef bleaching, development, on and on. I don't need a PhD to understand where that's going.

I'm surely not going to foment denial because my livelihood depends on it; because my life's work has contributed to some serious consequences for the planet.

Blessed are the Meek, for they shall inherit nothing but their Souls. - Anonymous Ghung Person