"Politics is supposed to be the second-oldest profession. I have come to realize that it bears a very close resemblance to the first".
- Ronald Reagan

Saturday, February 16, 2008

Obama vs McCain - The Battle Begins Now

The Potomac Primaries are over now and there were no real surprises. Both McCain and Obama had convincing wins and increased their lead in both delegates and the national polls. It looks more and more like these two will be the main candidates in November. Current polls show at this time that Obama would beat McCain by about 6-8%. IMO, it would be much higher.

In the Democratic race, Hillary seems to have decided to use the “Rudy Giuliani” plan and wait until Texas and Ohio to make her stand. She will have let “2 strikes” go by and is hoping to not swing and miss on March 4th. She will need to hit it out of the park is she has any hope of staying in the race, and Obama is not going to give her an easy one to hit. Obama has been gaining ground in many of Clinton’s core voters. White women, Hispanics, those over 65, union members, non-college graduates, and incomes less than $50,000. Polling shows Obama ahead in Wisconsin and if he clobbers her there like he did in the Potomac Primaries, she will also lose in Ohio. These two states have a lot in common concerning Democratic voters.

The Clinton campaign is a mess now too. She had to get a new campaign manager and needs to find a way to raise more money. More than all that she needs to get a plan in place and quickly or she is finished. You can tell a campaign has difficulty establishing a message when its slogans keep changing. In recent weeks, the Clinton campaign has featured one banner after another: "Big Challenges, Real Solutions," "Working for Change, Working for You," "Ready for Change, Ready to Lead" and "Solutions for America." Obama has stuck confidently with the slogan "Change You Can Believe In." Clinton must either get voters to stop believing in the change Obama promises, or make them an alternative Big Offer that they can believe in more.

McCain will need to get more Republicans interested in his campaign if he has any chance of competing in November. Many Republicans are only luke warm to the idea of a McCain presidency. His speeches are boring and uninspiring. As was described by a TV talking head, they sounded like he was talking to his flight crew. He also needs to get some younger people involved in his campaign. Every time you see him on TV he is surrounded by a people who all have AARP cards in their wallets. IMO, he has absolutely no chance of winning in November unless another 9/11 tragedy hits us between now and then.

Right now I feel that its Obama election to lose. The way he is broadening his appeal and reach with Independents and moderate Republicans he will be very tough to beat from now until November.