Chilcot report: Tony Blair's letter to George Bush on Iraq invasion

UpdatedJuly 6, 2016 — 9.27pmfirst published at 9.21pm

UK Prime Minister Tony Blair wrote to US President George W Bush on July 21:

"I will be with you, whatever. But this is the moment to assess bluntly the difficulties. The planning on this and the strategy are the toughest yet. This is not Kosovo. This is not Afghanistan. It's is not even the Gulf War.

President Bush, right, and British Prime Minister Tony Blair in 2006. Credit:AP

The military part of this is hazardous but I will concentrate mainly on the political context for success.

[Regime change in Iraq is] the right thing to do. [Saddam Hussein] is a potential threat. He could be contained. But containment … is always risky. His departure would free up the region. And his regime is … brutal and inhumane.

Suppose it got militarily tricky. Suppose Iraq suffered unexpected civilian casualties. Suppose the Arab street finally erupted… Suppose Saddam felt sufficiently politically strong, if militarily weak in conventional terms, to let off WMD. Suppose that, without any coalition, the Iraqis feel ambivalent about being invaded and real Iraqis… decide to offer resistance. Suppose … that any difficulties, without a coalition, are magnified and seized on by hostile international opinion. If we win quickly, everyone will be our friend. If we don't… recriminations will start fast.

None of these things might happen. But they might … And there is one other point. We will need to commit to Iraq for the long term. Bedding down a new regime will take time. So, without support, the possibility of unintended consequences will persist through and beyond the military phase.

"If we recapitulate all the WMD evidence; add his attempts to secure nuclear capability; and, as seems possible, add on the al-Qaeda link, it will be hugely persuasive over here. Plus… the abhorrent nature of the regime. It could be done simultaneously with the deadline."