NGSS Storyline

The following storyline provides context and rationale for the performance expectations listed below. The performance expectations, storyline, and 5-E lesson plan are designed to meet Next Generation Science Standards.

Performance Expectations

HS-LS2-6. Evaluate the claims, evidence, and reasoning that the complex interactions in ecosystems maintain relatively consistent numbers and types of organisms in stable conditions, but changing conditions may result in a new ecosystem.

HS-LS2-7. Design, evaluate, and refine a solution for reducing the impacts of human activities on the environment and biodiversity.

HS-ESS3-5. Analyze geoscience data and the results from global climate models to make an evidence-based forecast of the current rate of global or regional climate change and associated future impacts to Earth systems.

Main Phenomenon

Climate change is affecting nutrient and oxygen concentrations in the Chesapeake Bay.

Driving Questions

Why are nutrients and dissolved oxygen important for the Bay?

What are some factors that affect nutrient and dissolved oxygen levels?

Can we use models to predict how climate change can affect nutrient levels and oxygen levels in the Bay?

How can we reduce the impacts of climate change on nutrient loads and dissolved oxygen?

Disciplinary Core Ideas (DCIs)

ESS3.D: Global Climate Change: Though the magnitudes of human impacts are greater than they have ever been, so too are human abilities to model, predict, and manage current and future impacts.

LS2.C: Ecosystem Dynamics, Functioning, and Resilience: A complex set of interactions within an ecosystem can keep its numbers and types of organisms relatively constant over long periods of time under stable conditions. If a modest biological or physical disturbance to an ecosystem occurs, it may return to its more or less original status (i.e., the ecosystem is resilient), as opposed to becoming a very different ecosystem. Extreme fluctuations in conditions or the size of any population, however, can challenge the functioning of ecosystems in terms of resources and habitat availability.

Moreover, anthropogenic changes (induced by human activity) in the environment—including habitat destruction, pollution, introduction of invasive species, overexploitation, and climate change—can disrupt an ecosystem and threaten the survival of some species.

Science and Engineering Practices (SEPs)

Analyze data using computational models in order to make valid and reliable scientific claims.

Construct and revise an explanation based on valid and reliable evidence obtained from a variety of sources (including students’ own investigations, models, theories, simulations, peer review)

Design, evaluate, and refine a solution to a complex real-world problem, based on scientific knowledge, student-generated sources of evidence, prioritized criteria, and tradeoff considerations.

Engaging in argument from evidence. Arguments may also come from current scientific or historical episodes in science.

Evaluate the claims, evidence, and reasoning behind currently accepted explanations or solutions to determine the merits of arguments.

Cross Cutting Concepts (CCCs)

Stability and Change: Change and rates of change can be quantified and modeled over very short or very long periods of time. Some system changes are irreversible.

Formative and summative assessment in which students must provide explanations and arguments, conduct research, and form and apply a conceptual model. Assessment could take many forms. We provide an example essay assignment below.

Example assignment: Argumentative essay

Write an essay defending your position on the following question: Do you support EPA’s decision to include climate change as part of the nationwide TMDL plan? Use the outline below to write your essay.

1. Intro Paragraph (include your thesis/stance here)

2. Two Supporting Paragraphs: The purpose of these paragraphs is to prove your argument. Each should include:

Topic sentence

Introduction to evidence: Introduce your evidence either in a few words (e.g., as Dr. Brown states ―…) or in a single sentence.