6/09/2003 @ 9:50AM

Japan Weighs Radical Deflation Therapy

Japan is considering taxing all cash and savings in an effort to force its people to spend their money or lose it, according to Shukan Gendai, a leading Japanese newsweekly.

The plan, as outlined in the magazine, calls for an annual tax of 3% to 5% on all savings and time deposits in the country. The aim of the move is to force Japanese savers to either buy consumer goods or put their money in stock, bonds or real estate to avoid what in effect would become a steep negative interest rate on their savings.

To stop people from simply hoarding cash, the magazine says the move would take place next April when the Japanese government plans to replace current currency with new, hard-to-forge bills. Old cash would be exchanged for new cash after the government takes a 3% to 5% cut and inventories how much people have stashed away.

If people fail to change their old bills before that time, they will become worthless pieces of paper. Needless to say, underground money held by gangsters, tax cheats and others would be forced into real estate, bonds or stocks.

The only other alternative would be for Japanese savers to take their money overseas, a move which would send a tsunami of yen onto world markets.

Since Japan has about $12 trillion in savings, this move, if implemented, could have massive repercussions. It would almost certainly end the 13-year Japanese equity bear market. It could also end deflation in the country.

U.S. companies who have invested heavily in Japanese real estate and stocks, or bought Japanese companies, should benefit nicely. These would include
Goldman Sachs
,
Morgan Stanley
,
General Electric
,
Wal-Mart Stores
and all the various hedge funds–including
Ripplewood Holdings
,
Cerberus
and
Carlyle
–that have big Japan bets.