A Thaw On Austria Front

July 15, 2000|By SUZANNE DALEY The New York Times

PARIS — Five months after the European Union imposed sanctions on Austria to protest the inclusion of members of a far-right party in the Austrian government, machinery giving everyone a face-saving way to end the diplomatic freeze is in place.

A panel of experts has been named to study Austria's human rights record and the political nature of Joerg Haider's far-right Freedom Party. Once that is done, the sanctions are to be reviewed, and -- if the panel finds Austria does not violate civil rights -- presumably lifted.

Austria says it wants the sanctions off by October, when all 15 European Union leaders hold a summit in France, although France, the leader in imposing the diplomatic freeze on Austria, refuses to promise anything.

But already there are signs of a thaw. At Bastille Day celebrations Friday, Austria's ambassador was among the dignitaries sharing the reviewing stand with French President Jacques Chirac, a far cry from the twists and turns that have gone on to keep Chirac out of range of Austrian officials in recent months.

Analysts say there are enormous pressures at work that are likely to make the sanctions disappear fairly quickly.

For one thing, France has just taken over the rotating six-month presidency of the European Union and both its prestige and perhaps the timely expansion of the union are riding on its being able to deliver on a difficult agenda.

With more than a dozen countries on the runway to join the union, the EU must overhaul its institutions or face paralysis.

Right now, for instance, most EU decisions require a unanimous vote. That is hard enough with 15 members, but experts say it would be virtually impossible to get anything done if there were more members.

With an issue like this to broker, experts say, the tension created by continued sanctions could be a disaster. Earlier this month, Austrian officials threatened to use their veto to block any sort of progress. This week, they seemed to back down, perhaps judging how unpopular such a stand would make them. Analysts say a failure to resolve the problem could be costly.

"If I was French I would be worried," said Charles Grant, a political analyst with the Center for European Reform in London. "These issues are always brokered as a package. You don't want one country that is not really trying to make it work."

Moreover, while the sanctions remain unanimously in force with 14 members refusing to meet Austrian officials at anything more than a "technical level," many European Union countries have indicated that they would like to see the situation resolved.

Currently, France, Belgium and Holland are considered to be the only holdouts calling for the sanctions to continue.

This week certainly seemed to show a softening all around. First, Chirac invited the Austrian ambassador to the Bastille Day celebrations. Then, the Belgians announced that they, too, would extend a similar courtesy and invite the Austrian ambassador to their national day celebrations July 21.

For his part, Chancellor Wolfgang Schuessel of Austria seemed to be suddenly toning down his comments this week, and some analysts suggested he had the air of a man who had won the battle.

Visiting Brussels on Wednesday, he assured everyone that his country would do nothing to sabotage the EU preparations for enlargement.

"Words such as `threats,' `blackmail' and `veto' should be deleted from the vocabulary," Schuessel said.

Despite his withdrawal of any threat to disrupt the coming talks, Schuessel did not call off a referendum on the EU sanctions that is planned for the fall if sanctions are not lifted by then.