Ex-Nokia Executive seems to confirm our fears

The Canadian site Mobilesyrup spoke to him and got the following (article below):

1. Nokia/Elop intentionally dropped the ball in 2013, the Nokia X was a lure for Microsoft and was designed, by intention, to dilute Windows Phone/Lumia growth. This was my suspicion from day one, the device just didn't make any sense (same price as the L520, same markets). And of course the lack of compelling Lumia handsets and push throughout the year.

2. Some carriers definitely do seem to have a problem with Microsoft. Nadella supposedly learned that China Mobile, Telefonica, Vodafone and others are out for Microsoft, for some reason.

3. Internal screw-ups and external madness will ultimately, with time, result in Microsoft shutting down the handset manufacturing business, at least under Nadella. The recent spate of layoffs will likely prohibit Microsoft from producing Lumia handsets as cheaply as Nokia did (who did control the supply-chain line).

With the above said...only two words come to mind for all those responsible for WP not succeeding when it should have, the second word is "you" and the first word rhymes with "duck" but starts with the same letter as the word "failure", which I hope you lot feel one day.

That as it may, he's analyzing the reality fairly well. Seriously, why on earth would Nokia push phones with the same specs as the Lumia 520 on the same if not lower price point in the L520's key markets, e.g. India? I get companies make mistakes or weird decisions, but there has to be a limit.

I'm calling malice on this issue as well as on the way the carriers dealt with Windows Phone and the general industry's treatment of Microsoft. I was hesitant to pick up the "they all hate Microsoft" thing, but at this point, I can buy it.

I even remember in 2010 when carrier reps would shamelessly push some horrible (lag ridden) Android device over a Samsung Focus, despite the fact that the latter was at the time more suitable for users (back then we didn't have many veteran smartphone users).

I can only laugh at such speculations. MS haven't been in industry for decades for nothing. And with almost 13000 layoffs, you can be sure every troublemaker will come under fire. About x series, I've a feeling it was sort of a survival decision, to sustain the hardware division, like plan B. Ofcourse MS buying it killed any reason for the x-lineup to continue. But since they had spent money on its R&D, they released it anyway to make some money out of it. About carriers, well they are stocking what is popular right now. A business decision really. I'm sure if WP makes a dent and becomes a popular choice for consumers, every carrier in the world will be vying to stock windows phones.

The article is inaccurate from the very beginning. 50% of the layoffs are former Nokia employees, not 70%. 12,500 employees were from Nokia. The others were already working for Microsoft. Microsoft is simply consolidating the purchase of Nokia's hardware division with their own. It's typical for a large number of layoffs when operations are consolidated. Furthermore, Microsoft is discontinuing the Asha and converting the Nokia X design to Windows Phone so all those people creating Asha phones are no longer needed.
One of the reasons why Android has gained significant marketshare is due to low cost devices in emerging markets. Microsoft wants to capture these markets with low-cost Windows Phone devices instead of trying to sell them something different like Asha or Nokia X. However, in addition to their own devices such as the 520 which would be considered more as a midrange device in emerging markets, they are saturating the market with low-cost options from a variety of other OEMs similar to what Android has. Once the adoption of WP starts to accelerate, app developers will start producing more apps for WP and as a result, sales of premium WP devices such as what Microsoft Mobile (former Nokia) puts out will also increase. I don't think Microsoft will make the numbers of models they do today. They might have a handful of devices, maybe the equivalents of a 530, 730, 930, and 1520 and leave everything else up to the OEMs.

Not sure which fear of mine your referring to but I have no fear, in fact its exactly the opposite! The direction is EXACTLY what MS need to take and the changes will result in speed, efficiency, quality in both services and hardware.

I can only laugh at such speculations. MS haven't been in industry for decades for nothing. And with almost 13000 layoffs, you can be sure every troublemaker will come under fire.
About x series, I've a feeling it was sort of a survival decision, to sustain the hardware division, like plan B. Ofcourse MS buying it killed any reason for the x-lineup to continue. But since they had spent money on its R&D, they released it anyway to make some money out of it.
About carriers, well they are stocking what is popular right now. A business decision really. I'm sure if WP makes a dent and becomes a popular choice for consumers, every carrier in the world will be vying to stock windows phones.

The layoffs had more impact on Nokia's manufacturing and production side capabilities, i.e. the very capabilities that made Nokia such a capable smartphone producer (owing to its ability to cheaply secure resources, supply chain, manufacturing quality, etc).

Secondly, I don't think Nokia X was a back-up decision, how could it be? A real 'back up' for Nokia would be throw its eggs in with Google and push a proper Android device with Google services. The Nokia X's idea, i.e. to push Microsoft services on a subpar AOSP-based platform (did you see how much lag it had?) looked like an intentional shot in the foot than anything else. Just explain to me why on Earth such a platform could be put on the same level of hardware as the Lumia 520 and pushed in the very markets the Lumia 520 was doing well in? You know, it might have made more sense if Nokia and Microsoft got together and developed an AOSP platform for use in China and only China, i.e. the one market where AOSP is thriving, but that's not what happened.

Thirdly, I don't buy the "carriers only stock what's popular argument" ... If the 97% of the supply side of the market is built on Android, i.e. most OEMs producing Android and most carriers stocking mostly Android, then wouldn't that logically translate into 97% of market sales for Android? If Windows Phone had 20% of the OEM and carrier footprint, do you honestly believe it would have only taken 2.5% of the market? Can that make any rational sense?

What impact? The layoffs will take place in fiscal year 2015. Nokia's smartphone manufacturing quality? Forgive me for disagreeing with you but the only capable thing in Nokia was cameras and that too hardware mostly. No good automatic modes. Slow lock to capture times. Slow autofocusing. Average video capturing quality. No SD card slots. Thick chunky phones between 10-13mm. 185g weight. Low footprint to screen ratio. Year old processors. Less RAMs. Missing camera flashes. No front facing cameras. In my opinion, they ruined every phone with some omission except 520 and 1520. And I've yet to see a truly slim phone from Nokia. These lacks in hardware coupled with sub par ecosystem, and their phones were still priced as high as androids and even some cases more than android flagships and even iPhones.

[Edit] I do like the sturdiness of their phones and choice of material as opposed to cheap plastic used by Samsung but apart from that everything is a mess.

Secondly, X series may or may not have been intentional. It was a Nokia android. And it sold alone on that point. A average Joe doesn't know about AOSP. Neither does he know difference between one drive and google drive or outlook and Gmail. He doesn't know about side loading.

You are forgetting Apple. Factor into Apples popularity and 84%android share and 11% IOS share makes sense. And if WP did have 20% footprint, we would have seen a lot more share than just 2.5%.

What impact? The layoffs will take place in fiscal year 2015. Nokia's smartphone manufacturing quality? Forgive me for disagreeing with you but the only capable thing in Nokia was cameras and that too hardware mostly. No good automatic modes. Slow lock to capture times. Slow autofocusing. Average video capturing quality. No SD card slots. Thick chunky phones between 10-13mm. 185g weight. Low footprint to screen ratio. Year old processors. Less RAMs. Missing camera flashes. No front facing cameras. In my opinion, they ruined every phone with some omission except 520 and 1520. And I've yet to see a truly slim phone from Nokia. These lacks in hardware coupled with sub par ecosystem, and their phones were still priced as high as androids and even some cases more than android flagships and even iPhones.

[Edit] I do like the sturdiness of their phones and choice of material as opposed to cheap plastic used by Samsung but apart from that everything is a mess.

Secondly, X series may or may not have been intentional. It was a Nokia android. And it sold alone on that point. A average Joe doesn't know about AOSP. Neither does he know difference between one drive and google drive or outlook and Gmail. He doesn't know about side loading.

You are forgetting Apple. Factor into Apples popularity and 84%android share and 11% IOS share makes sense. And if WP did have 20% footprint, we would have seen a lot more share than just 2.5%.

Sent from my tapatalk app on lumia 525

So Nokia decided to cheap out towards the end, agreed, but that still doesn't change the reality that they're capable of producing quality handsets at lower price points. However heavy or thick the Lumia 920 was, it's still my daily drivers and I - as well most others - haven't experienced any real problems with it, despite it now nearing 2 years of age. The Lumia 720 was also a solid design, as were the 925 and 1020. And btw, the Lumia 520 for its time was better spec'd than similarly priced Android phones. In fact I recall a point where it was competing against the Galaxy Ace II X and Xperia J, and was better than them (e.g. dual core vs. single core, IPS panel, etc).

What you're describing is more of a case of mismanagement than intrinsic faults in their capacities, and that was my earlier point. Nokia could have pushed a compelling mid-range phone, e.g. Lumia 720 + S400 + 1GB RAM + 720p panel, but it didn't. It could have offered a solid update to the Lumia 520, but it didn't. Instead it put resources towards the Nokia X, a platform that had "premature end" written all over it because it made absolutely no sense to anyone, not even Nokia. I am sure Nokia could have had a much more compelling product if it paired the Lumia 1020 or 925 or 1520 designs with Google's Android.

So Nokia decided to cheap out towards the end, agreed, but that still doesn't change the reality that they're capable of producing quality handsets at lower price points. However heavy or thick the Lumia 920 was, it's still my daily drivers and I - as well most others - haven't experienced any real problems with it, despite it now nearing 2 years of age. The Lumia 720 was also a solid design, as were the 925 and 1020. And btw, the Lumia 520 for its time was better spec'd than similarly priced Android phones. In fact I recall a point where it was competing against the Galaxy Ace II X and Xperia J, and was better than them (e.g. dual core vs. single core, IPS panel, etc).

What you're describing is more of a case of mismanagement than intrinsic faults in their capacities, and that was my earlier point. Nokia could have pushed a compelling mid-range phone, e.g. Lumia 720 + S400 + 1GB RAM + 720p panel, but it didn't. It could have offered a solid update to the Lumia 520, but it didn't. Instead it put resources towards the Nokia X, a platform that had "premature end" written all over it because it made absolutely no sense to anyone, not even Nokia. I am sure Nokia could have had a much more compelling product if it paired the Lumia 1020 or 925 or 1520 designs with Google's Android.

You have some truth to what you are saying. Obviously you can't deny the resentment. It is only natural. Maybe Nokia X was a result of that. And yes, they as a company could have had more success with android. But, it is a thing of a past now. They are under new management and with layoffs about to take place, it will sort things out whatever problems they were having. Ofcourse, we will save our judgement for the first batch of products that are truly manufactured under MS.

The Canadian site Mobilesyrup spoke to him and got the following (article below):

1. Nokia/Elop intentionally dropped the ball in 2013, the Nokia X was a lure for Microsoft and was designed, by intention, to dilute Windows Phone/Lumia growth. This was my suspicion from day one, the device just didn't make any sense (same price as the L520, same markets). And of course the lack of compelling Lumia handsets and push throughout the year.

2. Some carriers definitely do seem to have a problem with Microsoft. Nadella supposedly learned that China Mobile, Telefonica, Vodafone and others are out for Microsoft, for some reason.

3. Internal screw-ups and external madness will ultimately, with time, result in Microsoft shutting down the handset manufacturing business, at least under Nadella. The recent spate of layoffs will likely prohibit Microsoft from producing Lumia handsets as cheaply as Nokia did (who did control the supply-chain line).

With the above said...only two words come to mind for all those responsible for WP not succeeding when it should have, the second word is "you" and the first word rhymes with "duck" but starts with the same letter as the word "failure", which I hope you lot feel one day.

I really wish people would stop with the use of "our" when referring to their own opinion. Unless you are Queen Elizabeth II or some other equivalent on this planet, "our" applies to none of this. Beyond that, sorry but this is just the typical stuff one gets from most ex-executives, He really is confirming nothing more and no, the "analysis" is not sound. The layoffs were predicted at the time of acquisition - nothing new or exciting there. The CEO's cuts OUTSIDE mobile are far more troubling, not the ones that were always coming in the mobile unit. As far as the Nokia Microsoft "mess" goes, what mess? Nokia was on the verge of bankruptcy and found a buyer for its FAILING handset division. Microsoft needed the hardware manufacturing capacity and got it comparatively cheap. They both ended up with what they wanted. Compare this to Google's bona fide Motorola mess. Mix of old news and old innuendo spun by someone with an axe to grind. If you want to buy into it, that is fine since we are all entitled to an opinion but that is then your opinion not our opinion.

BTW, as far as Microsoft having trouble with carriers:
1) Everyone has trouble with carriers. If you look at any single Android handset maker rather than the entire group as a whole, does it look like any have had fun on that front. Likewise, take a look at their profits (or lack thereof). Android dominates the market but it has hardly ensured profitability for anyone.
2) Microsoft shares the same problem in China as Google. Both remain at odds with the Chinese government over privacy and security issues - probably the only subject where I have any respect for Google. Compare that to the news today of Apple now housing servers with personal data in China.

Listen this makes perfect since to me and I think he makes a compelling argument to say least. But as far as China Mobile it's concerned they have a problem with anyone who doesn't play the bribe game, I mean look how long it took Apple 🍎 to get in that market. But please don't get me confused as to think it would be past Mr Ballmer to shell out a few bucks to get a new emerging market as big as China, or India for that matter.

I have fears of long dark hallways (not sure why) and that my dogs playing in the house will get me in trouble with my wife because thay will break something after she warned me they would and I let them do it anyways due to it being so dang amusing. So far, I see none of that in the write up.

As for my "fears" of mobile? Overall, I see no reason to worry about the directions being taken by MS. I figured the "X" line was dead. One of the things I hate about large mergers or company purchases is that a painful layoff period always is next, which is upon the workers and families of Nokia and MS. That makes me feel horrid for them, but it is unavoidable and is how businesses survive. Mr. Nadella is taking the steps first made by Mr. Ballmer (everyone does remember the "one vision" speech of Steve Ballmer over 4 years ago, right? Credit where credit is due.) and the fight for the lower end market and making them reality. Only piece of the puzzle left is the launch of Windows 9 next year (what else could they call it?) and recovering from the lost year 2014 is turning out to be for WP.

I feel in 18 months from now, all this will be footnotes to us. This and all the other "tell all" stories coming out will be forgotten, and WP users will be basking in the afterglow of dozens of new products and surges of popularity.

I, however, will still need a flashlight for those long dark hallways.

Nokia X was a lure for Microsoft and was designed, by intention, to dilute Windows Phone/Lumia growth. This was my suspicion from day one, the device just didn't make any sense

What?? that made ALL the sense in the world. It really looks like they made it only to force Microsoft to buy the handset division. And whats more important with great conditions considering the circumstanses. Nokia kept everything that has any value, the handset division is ni deep **** for a long time still.

Full respect to Nokia. Also hats off for mr Risto Siilasmaa of Nokia, well played and Im sure we will read about this later in some publications. What would be the ultimate? Of course that Nokia would re-enter the consumer market in short time, and do it by making profit!

I read the original aticle. Ahonen gets many things wrong there. Waste of time reading what he says.

The article is inaccurate from the very beginning. 50% of the layoffs are former Nokia employees, not 70%. 12,500 employees were from Nokia.

So apparently 50% of 18000 is 12500? Your math has had better days I think ;P

Originally Posted by Laura Knotek

This guy was fired from Nokia. He isn't exactly an unbiased source.

We have a saying here: "Zangam-se as comadres, descobrem-se as verdades" (something like "friends get angry at each other, truths come to light")

Doesn't matter how he left Nokia, nothing in his analysis collides with the facts and a realistic analysis. It may not be the sort of thing Microsoft fans want to read but there's nothing wrong with the analysis.

Also, regarding the carriers, I don't know about all of them, but I know from personal experience that Vodafone DOES instruct their employees to only sell Windows Phones to customers who specifically ask for one. I've talked with several Vodafone employees and they all told me the same

As for the future of Microsoft Mobile, I don't think it has one. Specially under Eflop. If Nadella wants to start doing damage control, he should start by firing that guy. I think eventually Microsoft will end up just closing it down and moving a bunch of employees to the Surface division. That way they only have one division with losses producing a couple of phones and tablets. The future of WP in the post-Nokia Era, if there's a future, it's with third party OEMs, not with Microsoft itself. At least that's my opinion. And I think Nadella agrees.

So apparently 50% of 18000 is 12500? Your math has had better days I think ;P

We have a saying here: "Zangam-se as comadres, descobrem-se as verdades" (something like "friends get angry at each other, truths come to light")

Doesn't matter how he left Nokia, nothing in his analysis collides with the facts and a realistic analysis. It may not be the sort of thing Microsoft fans want to read but there's nothing wrong with the analysis.

Also, regarding the carriers, I don't know about all of them, but I know from personal experience that Vodafone DOES instruct their employees to only sell Windows Phones to customers who specifically ask for one. I've talked with several Vodafone employees and they all told me the same

As for the future of Microsoft Mobile, I don't think it has one. Specially under Eflop. If Nadella wants to start doing damage control, he should start by firing that guy. I think eventually Microsoft will end up just closing it down and moving a bunch of employees to the Surface division. That way they only have one division with losses producing a couple of phones and tablets. The future of WP in the post-Nokia Era, if there's a future, it's with third party OEMs, not with Microsoft itself. At least that's my opinion. And I think Nadella agrees.

Nope, 25k Layoffs from Microsoft overall. I agree with your second point. I disagree that Microsoft Mobile is dead. Surface division will get rolled into MM, no doubt about it. Why do you think Surface Mini was cancelled?

Nope, 25k Layoffs from Microsoft overall.
I agree with your second point.
I disagree that Microsoft Mobile is dead. Surface division will get rolled into MM, no doubt about it. Why do you think Surface Mini was cancelled?

Where did you get the 25000 number? They announced 18000. 25000 was the number of ex-Nokia employees that were transferred to Microsoft.
Also the Surface Mini was cancelled, according to Microsoft, because it offered nothing new apart from size. Nothing that would make it stand out. That means it would be yet another money-losing tablet. Any eventual merging of teams wouldn't cancel the tablet.

That as it may, he's analyzing the reality fairly well. Seriously, why on earth would Nokia push phones with the same specs as the Lumia 520 on the same if not lower price point in the L520's key markets, e.g. India? I get companies make mistakes or weird decisions, but there has to be a limit.

I'm calling malice on this issue as well as on the way the carriers dealt with Windows Phone and the general industry's treatment of Microsoft. I was hesitant to pick up the "they all hate Microsoft" thing, but at this point, I can buy it.

I even remember in 2010 when carrier reps would shamelessly push some horrible (lag ridden) Android device over a Samsung Focus, despite the fact that the latter was at the time more suitable for users (back then we didn't have many veteran smartphone users).

"That as it may" only because it fits your profile of where this company is. I don't agree.
Personally I am sick of these eating ones own feed corn stories. I say we don't yet know what is in store of this phone from MS. They released folders and it is as stunning as is Cortana personal assistant. Those are just tidbits. Something big is coming and when it does, none of us will see it coming.