Around 7 AM on Sunday morning, my smoke detector started beeping every few minutes. Hungover, I rolled out of bed. I figured the battery was low, so I removed it and went back to sleep. An hour later, it started beeping again. So I removed the smoke detector from the wall and it stopped beeping. Then at 3 AM Monday night, it started beeping again. I pulled out my ladder and, like I was defusing a bomb but not caring if it blew up, I indiscriminately cut all the wires from the smoke detector and went back to sleep. About 5 hours later, it started beeping again. I pulled a hammer from my tool box and began smashing the smoke detector. Then I went into my office and did the same to that smoke detector just to make sure. Then I removed the one from my bedroom and did the same. No more beeping…. Until Tuesday at 2 AM. So I took all three smashed smoke detectors and threw them in the dumpster. When I returned from the dumpster, more beeping. It was like I was in England during the German raids of WWII. The tell-tale heart was beat, beat, beating. The next morning, I called a electrician to come by. He said he couldn’t make it until Thursday, so I wore headphones all day Wednesday to block out the beeping. Finally, on Thursday, the electrician showed up at my house and installed new smoke detectors. In broken English, he told me everything was now fine. I could remove my headphones. Just then, there was more beeping. Ah-ha! See?! I’m not crazy! So the electrician followed the beeping sound and found the culprit. In a desk drawer, there was a malfunctioning alarm clock. I don’t tell you this story so you question all advice I give you, but this smoke detector dance reminded me of picking up free agents in fantasy baseball. Alex Gordon hits. You pick him up. He stops hitting. You drop him. He starts hitting again. You pick him up again. He stops hitting. You smash him with a hammer, throw him in the dumpster and promise yourself you’ll never pick him up again. Then he hits again and you grab him. I don’t have a lot of faith that Gordon will continue his production all year, but you absolutely have to pick him up just to see if he’s the real deal or just a malfunctioning alarm clock. Anyway, here’s some more players to buy or sell this week in fantasy baseball:

BUY

Brandon Belt – I almost didn’t put Belt in this week’s Buy because I figured everyone already owns him. Then I saw he was only owned in 21% of ESPN leagues. Quick lesson that I learned freshman year at the College of Fantasy Baseball at Charleston. When choosing between random boring vet that could give you 25 homers (Juan Rivera) and upside, you always take a flyer on upside.

Juan Miranda – I have less faith in Miranda than the two above him, but he’s also guaranteed better playing time than those two. If Ross returns and Belt isn’t hitting, he could lose his job. When Kendry(s) returns, Trumbo could lose his job. Whereas, the Diamondbacks said they want to see Miranda at first and backing him up is Russell Branyan. With all due respect to Mrs. Branyan and son, Billy, and the whole Branyan family tree, Russell is not someone the Diamondbacks should turn to for any extended period of time.

Jordan Walden – I’m not you’re babe, Fernando… Even Fernando Rodney will admit that he was only the closer because he was scary looking. He’s got Closer Face. 3 sentences, 2 Lady Gaga references. I will now donate my testicles to science. Could Walden be Neftali Feliz for 2011? Could be, young Razzball reader.

Sean Burnett – While save vultures have trouble reproducing because they’re usually overweight guys who would prefer to listen to sports news than what the girl they’re dating is talking about. “How do I look in this dress?” “Very skinny, Sean Burnett.” “Did you just call me, Sean Burnett?” “No.” Save vultures should be picking on Burnett’s carcass.

Edwin Jackson – Just went over him this morning. Scroll down. Not with your eyes. With your mouse.

Charlie Morton – Has now appeared in two straight Buy/Sells. Still has a long way to go to break the record six straight weeks that I spent touting Luke Scott last year.

Aaron Harang – I was just thinking how Petco was where Dusty Baker threw Harang’s career off track three years ago during an indefensible relief outing. Dusty, “Harang, I need four innings from you three days after your last start. Muahahahahaha… Wait, did I just laugh maniacally out loud? My bad.” Harang should have the PA system at Petco play Redemption Song when he takes the mound.

Kyle Drabek – Slightly bonkers to me that Drabek is owned in 70% more ESPN leagues than Brandon Beachy. I like Drabek, but I kinda don’t want any AL East pitchers, in general.

Brandon Beachy – Give me the password to your fantasy team and I’ll pick him up for you.

Logan Morrison – I have a feeling this year Morrison is going to be one of those players that is very valuable in NL-Only leagues but floats on the top of waiver wires in mixed leagues.

Ben Francisco – More for those in deep mixed leagues because his ceiling is like the 7 1/2 floor in the Mertin Flemmer Building.

SELL

Michael Morse – Hey, you tried to go with the latest/greatest/superlative outfield flyer, but he looks lost.

Michael Cuddyer – Sticking with the newly established Michael theme, Cuddyer is owned in 98% of ESPN leagues, but Morrison is owned in 31%. Okie-dokie.

Kurt Suzuki – He’s such garbage that garbage is filing a copyright infringement case against him.

Brian Roberts– Smoke a Newport, because Roberts is alive with pleasure! He’s rejuvenated, he’s hitting for power, he’s stealing bases, he’s… Oh, c’mon, it’s not going to last. He has a history of knee, hip and back problems. That sounds like someone who will be sliding hard into 2nd on steal attempts and staying healthy? Yeah, I don’t think so either. I wouldn’t sell Roberts for a copy of Ring Magazine with Abdullah the Butcher on the cover, but I would explore options.

@Grey I have to admit I committed a cardinal sin in dropping Trumbo at UT for Berkman but I needed the OF eligibility. The irony being that the same eligibility will probably be his downfall. What’s that beeping noise?

Love the Poe reference…
Who do you like better by the end of the year Posada or Wieters?
Also, I see Markakis as a great candidate to recoup some of the lost hype that ‘perts were heaping on him over the last three years. Do you see Tricky Nicky as a legit #3 OF in a standard mixed league by year’s end? Thanks for your time Grey.

@JRT: 1400 is yahoo,s norm i believe,if its yahoo,go to your team page,scroll to the very bottom and it will have a games played innings pitched chart,im at plus 6 innings now,another stategy that i dont use is to max out on innings asap and trade your good pitchers ,example,trade your lincecum and yourstoren and say your fielder for albert or something

AL – I have been monitoring – I just feel in ESPN leagues I would always be able to stream pitchers in the second half and it is disconserting that I am right on target. I also feel like it diminishes great MRs because they are “free” innings.

@Grey: No love for Jose Lopez as the MI flavor of the week? Now for my real question. 12 team mixed roto – need to set my weekly lineup and am not sure which starting 5 SPs to go with (i.e. Hamels scares me). Pick 5 of the following:

In a dynasty league, would you trade 2013 Howard ($35), 2013 Gavin Floyd ($12), and Kila (2014 $10) for Dunn (2012 $20), Hellickson ($5)? I lerrrrrve Hellickson, but I don’t want to be giving up too much.

“…When choosing between random boring vet that could give you 25 homers (Juan Rivera) and upside, you always take a flyer on upside….”

Does random boring vet = Konerko?

Grey, I think you mixed up the line for Ibanez with Francisco, 70/20/85/.270/3.

He may reach 25hr’s as well, while I think that Ibanez may not reach 20hr’s this year. BenFran hit at least 3 balls this week during their homestand that would have been dingers if the the weather would have been more like East Coast April-like and less Green Bay frozen tundra-like. He is making solid contact and now is splitting time with Ibanez in the 5 hole in order to split the lefties. Lots of opportunities.

Grey, I feel like after reading those Gaga references that this will be a “great” romance. Edwin Jackson blessed my team yesterday (thanks!) and I’m all in on Volquez (why not!)…and if I get anything out of espinosa, raburn, and pena this year, then I’m going places…quick question: do you think Hanrahan (pitt) keeps it up or should I sell high?

Just got offered Pagan, Scherzer, Hellickson for Kemp and Thornton in a 14 team 6×6 H2H league (OPS/QS). I have Kemp, BJ, Bautista, Man-Ram, Morse as OFs and a glutton of suck pitching: Ubaldo, Hanson, Lilly, Kuroda, Kennedy and a bunch of streams. What say you guys?

Hi Grey — Do you think Wilson is back for good in the closers’ role? He didn’t look too good in his first game back. I’ve been holding onto Romo has a handcuff but I wonder if I can safely drop him in a 20-team roto league. I could use the roster spot but don’t want to miss a chance at some cheap saves in a league where they’re a premium.

@Jason: As a Scherzer owner, I’m worried about him. His velocity is down like it was last year when he was terrible, and he’s mentioned having problems with his delivery. On the positive side he was able to fix it eventually last year, but I think if he continues to struggle you could snatch him at a much cheaper speculative price in a month or so.

@Eddy: Just reported on the NESN broadcast that he retired after being informed by MLB about an issue regarding there drug/substance policy. Roids to try and make a comeback? So sad for such a great hitter, former fantasy allstar.

would you drop Manny or Cargo Lite for Sam Fuld? I just have this weird feeling he is going to un-retire in a week or so….maybe not…The only other time i owned Manny, he got a 50 game suspension….what a douche nozzle.

At this point in the season, if I have 2 pitchers go out and deal a couple of nice games that put me ahead of the innings limit pace (1450), and I have two more guys set to pitch today, but both guys took their lumps last time out (Wandy and Lilly) but have nice matchups today. Do you run those guys out there or do you let them work out the kinks on the bench?

Now the pickup question, I’ve got Raburn and Bourjos as the only bats on my bench, do I drop one to pick up Belt? What about Harang?

Greyski!
Dumb question in 3… 2… 1…
Took flyers on Morse and ManRam in all leagues and I’m in a little bit of trouble. Only Legit closer I have is Papelbon, what kind of OF do you think I could get for him straight up?!

Grey & Co…what do you guys think about Gordon Beckham? Guy in my league wants to trade him for an 1b or OF. I have Kelly Johnson at 2nd, but he’s sucking pretty bad thus far and I have no backup now that Nishi’s gone. The guys I have that I’d be willing to part with that the Beckham owner might consider (he wants someone proven so Belt is out) would be Rajai Davis or Ike Davis. Ike’s #s were much better than Beckham’s last year though so I’m hesitant to make that trade. Thoughts?

@WDE05: If you can get him for Davis, I’d do it. Beckham has upside that it looks like he’s growing into. With Rajai, you know what you’re getting: in the neighborhood of 40 steals, and not much else. Plus Podsednik is probably coming back soon, and he and Rajai are basically the same guy; you could probably pick him up off waivers, plus Davis’ playing time may go down. Also, Kelly J may cease sucking at some point (I went to high school with a girl named Kelly Jay, but never mind), at least enough to have trade value.

Thanks for the advice. I’ll see if he’ll take either of the Davis’s. I’m really not that down on Kelly J and I fully expect him to start hitting soon. Just a little pissed because I have him, Mauer, and Holliday on my roster which really killed my offense this week.

Anyone else thinking Helton might be undervalued? Not valuable, mind you. He looked like toast after ’08 but his ’09 was basically the same as Butler’s. No, really. Obviously careers going in different directions, but decline is sometimes stochastic, and in deep non-keeper leagues it seems to me the 500-place differential in ADP is a disparity worth looking into.

Hey Grey, love the site and (as you like to point out) the ESPN league ownership percentages are wacky. But I can personally attest that my middle school students love them the free fantasy baseball leagues. As much as we think we have ADHD, we are nothing compared to the average upper-middle-class 12 year-old. So that is one more piece of information to explain the crazy numbers, and while I’ve had my complaints about CBS, there’s something about pay-to-play that keeps our ownership % accurate. For example:

Belt is owned in 72% of CBS leagues.

Drabek is at 88% vs. Beachy @ 67%
Russel Martin is 78% owned.

Loving me my Edwin Jackson pickup. Only wish I had drafted him over Minor so’s he be a late round keeper. Peace.

Just catching up to this week’s buy/sell and am shocked to see you writing about three catchers.
I still love the scab image whenever I get ticked at the catching position – then again this is the third year with Iannetta
But Brian it is 8:30 at night and you are just getting to the Buy/Sell, doesn’t matter Steve is in my league.

Yeah, definitely a useful commodity. Though I think his trek to gain SS eligibility will be long and drawn out now, much like Vladdy’s OF eligibility quest last year. I see Drew’s off days as Bloomquist’s starting days at SS from now on.

Maddon starting to get like scociopathe, thinking he’s smarter than he actually is.

SRod is the only guy hitting going 2 for 3 with a triple and 2 rbi’s. But he pinch hits for him with Casey F’ning Kotchman. I mean I get the splits he has, but come on. Ride the hot hand. What do you have to lose.

How can he ever prove he can hit righties if you let him try. He has an over 1000 ops on a team that scored like 5 runs the whole season, and you can’t find room for him. You had D. Johnson batting cleanup today.

to add on the Hafner thing, all the hours I spent in draft prep and he’s my most productive hitter so far.

A guy I absolutlely wanted no part of, but he was my last rsv pick in a 20 teamer. And only him, D. Johnson, and J. Wilson were starting players left. And I was actually pissed when I left that I didn’t pick Johnson.

Shows you how much luck is involved, he’s doing better Ad. Gonzalez who I spent $40 on.

@All – CWS/TB game. 1st run scored on a throwing error by Alexei. Batter should not have received credit for a hit. Pierre then drops a pop fly before the Johnson HR. All runs should be unearned. May take soe time to sort out because the Alexei play was an error all the way. Thornton did not have good stuff tonight – all fastballs. Grey, could be time for a “Sale” on RP’s.

Hey Grey do they have pell grants or some kinda student loans for that College? I see where you get your BS degree..cust kiddin…lol.
Just wanna drop you a line and say how much I enjoy you guys, but now Im really worried that you are using SIMPLY FRED as a reference since he is in my league..lol. I thought I was a moverr but Simply Fred goes through players faster than a $2 ho on a saturday night.

@Grey:
What do you guys think? Drop David Hernandez (who is pitching lights out right now, but so is Putz) for Jason Motte (who is pitching horrible right now, but Franklin blew another save last night)? This is a 12 tm NL only league.

I am in a 16-team keeper league, but in order to keep a player next year, you have to draft him and keep him on your bench the entire year without ever playing him. Right now, I have Desmond Jennings, Chris Heisey, Tyler Colvin, and Jose Tabata available to be keepers, but I need a 4th outfielder.

What order would you keep these players (and therefore not use them at all this year)? Which ones do you think provide the greatest difference in value between this year and next year? For reference sake, my current outfield is pretty solid: Justin Upton, Drew Stubbs, and Aubrey Huff.

I still can’t believe Logan Morrison is owned in only 33% of ESPN leagues. Only four players had more runs than he did during the time he played last season. He also already has 2 HRs to equal his output for all of last year. He’s a huge OBP guy. He has the prospect pedigree. What is the confusion here? Grey shouldn’t have to tell people to pick him up.

Tom E’s comment goes back to my post, that bemoaning the ESPN league ownership percentages is an exercise in futility. Morrison is owned in 79% of CBS leagues. Pia probably shouldn’t have been voted out already in AI, either, but it’s a silly show so why get worked up over it? If you still watch because you like to look at J-Lo, I’m not gonna fault you for that. If you happen to play in an active ESPN league, good on ya. But it’s clear that as a whole the ownership numbers are just goofy.

Is there a term for when a pitcher has a quality start and then gives up a run in the 7th and no longer has a quality start? I have Beachy in a league that counts QS and he would have had one today if they just didn’t send him out there in the 7th. Curses!

For a 12 team H2H league that counts strikeouts and walks as hitting categories, I’m considering offering this “sell high, buy low” trade:

My Howard/Edwin J. for his Youk/Hamels.

Already have Fielder as my UTIL so I could move him to the 1B slot, keep Wright at 3B, and have Youk take over the UTIL spot. All the while Hamels will probably be better than Jackson by year’s end, and Howard strikes out and walks less than Youk.

@Gray: I’m thinking about trading Beltre and Posey for Longoria. I’m in a keeper league. Would hate to lose Posey, but I agree with you that Beltre’s 2010 is never going to happen again. Plus I just picked up Russell Martin who I think might return to his 2007-8 form (yes, I’m a Yankee fan. Still have some leftover hatred for Beltre for ever donning a Sox uniform).

You think this is a good trade? I’m in a 10-team head-to-head league btw.

@Grey: I have Aaron Hill at 2B and Ryan Zimmerman at 3B. I have also picked up enough closers of the WW that I am now holding 4 of them (Broxton, Thornton/Sale, Rauch/Francisco, Sean Burnett).
Another guy in my league has Kinsler at 2B, Aramis Ramirez at 3B (no MI/CI slot in the league). He also has Neil Walker on his bench.
Should I offer him one of my closers for Walker as backup for Hill, or would you stay put? If the former, what closer would you offer him?
12 team mixed, standard 5×5 roto.

Would you trade $13 Broxton and $15 Kuo for $1 Wood and $3 Kennedy in a dynasty league? I’m worried as hell about Broxton’s lost velocity (I know it’s a few games, but it’s def 5-6 mph slower than last year). It’s a holds league, just FYI. I think the trade is at least .80 on the dollar.

I know it’s only the first week of baseball and I am not panicking, but I have to make some changes to get more production out of my line up. BA and runs are killing me, especially with the painfully slow start of guys injured last season (Mauer, Morneau…). LoMo is one of the first I want to pick up, but I will have to drop/trade guys for the roster spots. So, who is worth dropping and which of the following do you think are the best to grab?

Beltre has been the most productive and consistent hitter, with Mauer/Morneau obviously using the start of the season as training camp (or are still injured more than they let on). Russell Martin, LoMo, Grandy, Ike Davis, Yunel Escobar, Hip Hip Jorge… Right now Freeman, with all the promise, isn’t helping an already anemic lineup much. Should he be the first to go until he proves it consistently?

With Ryan Franklin’s 3rd blown save last night, and Motte being pretty bad himself, what do you think about the Miguel Batista being next in line for saves? Batista’s stats thus far are better than Motte’s. Motte or Batista the better add?

We’re doing our 1st pickups this week, and I need a 5th OF to replace Blanks (it looks like he’ll be back in a month – about to start a rehab in San Antonio).. NL Only 4×4, and with our roster rules you can’t drop a player unless he goes on the DL, gets sent to the minors, or in this case, Blanks comes off the DL.. so now that that’s out of the way.. here are my options, how would you rank them.
-Denorfia (Venable is not hitting, but neither has Denorifia)
-WHarris (I like him over the next few weeks, but Bay is on the way)
-Schierholtz (torres is hurt, but Ross is close to coming back)
-Hinske (could he take over for Freeman?)
-Gibbons (coming off the DL this week, maybe)
-Mayberry
-SHairston

@Shmorgie S. Board: From Roto today: White Sox manager Ozzie Guillen intends to start using a closer by committee. He’s reversing course from comments made Saturday when he defended Matt Thornton. Thornton is still likely to see the majority of save chances, but it appears Guillen will use multiple other options. “I’ve got three or four guys who can close,” Guillen said. “I got [Jesse] Crain, [Chris] Sale, [Sergio] Santos and Thornton that can close the end of the game. Don’t be surprised if you see one of those guys. We’ll do that because someone needs the rest or we like the matchup better. There’s a lot of things going through our minds about who’s going to be pitching the ninth.” Guillen added: “I didn’t use Thornton yesterday because we used him too much the night before — he got too many pitches. If Thornton was ready yesterday, I would have put him in. That’s the way it should be. Meanwhile, don’t be surprised when you see Santos on the mound in closing situations.”

Greyski!
Standard 5×5 12team mixer
I was offered the following 2 deals… Which do you like more?
A.) Rasmus and The Flyin Hawaiian for Youkilis?
B.) Dread Pirate and Raburn for Youkilis?
I need OF considering one retired and Michael Morse has a vajay jay.

Do you think trading away Utley for Edwin Jackson would be appealing for anyone? or is it ridiculous at this point.. I got Utley in like the 10th round because everyone obviously forgot about him… and now I want something in return since I have B. Phillips tearin it up!

I got a question which no one seems to be asking (sorry if I missed it)….what’s the story w/ Luke Scott? He back from his groin injury or not? Do you feel confident starting him this week in a weekly league?