48. Speculate is all we can do at this point

If they pick Jeb, he'll have to have a teabagger VP candidate because their party's so fractured, at least for now. Without one they'll lose for sure. Look at the Orange Man's inability to control his own caucus. For the reasons you cite, I'm going to bet on Cruz for now. Jeb would be needed to reassure what remaining semi-brains they have left and at least give some semblance of 'dignity' to the ticket. It would all be a farce, of course, but they have to run somebody. Maybe another sacrificial lamb? considering the huge likelihood that they'll be facing Miss Hillary. Maybe the whuppin' they took from President Obama will make them think twice before wasting their paltry stack of ammo on an election they might already have lost even now.

Not to worry about complacency on my part. I'd work my heart out for her even if she was running 98% ahead of the competition. Might feel more confident of victory, but still determined to charge the GOP every single vote possible.