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Re: Phillips not thrilled about uncertain future

He's a 3-win player, tops. You don't pay $12 million for a 3-win player.

No? How will he lose value? Alot of his value is from his defense. So, how much do you think his defense will fall off? OR do you think his defense might be the same but his offense will fall ALOT?

In a perfect world you don't pay ALOT for anyone. But that's all wishful thinking. You gotta pay for some of these guys.

In the end, I think he'll take less than $12M/yr. But, like I said before, I think the length of the contract will be the bigger problem. A deal (with 2012 redone) that has, roughly, 2012-2014 for $30M, or a LITTLE more, is something I can live with. A deal for 2012-16 for $50M or more? That's alot harder for me to be ok with.

"Now that's a real shame when folks be throwin' away a perfectly good white boy like that."

Re: Phillips not thrilled about uncertain future

Originally Posted by Ron Madden

I'm in 100% agreement with Krono .

Me too.

"....the two players I liked watching the most were Barry Larkin and Eric Davis. I was suitably entertained by their effortless skill that I didn't need them crashing into walls like a squirrel on a coke binge." - dsmith421

Re: Phillips not thrilled about uncertain future

The Reds offer should be a 3 year front loaded deal with a vesting option for year 4. Year 1, $13 Million, year 2 $11 Million, Year 3 $9 Million. Year 4 an option at $12 Million that vests with 500 PAs in year 3. If the option doesn't vest the buy out is $2 Million.

I'm not overly excited about the Reds 2B options until the Torreyes/Hamiton duo arrive. Like Cozart, I think Gregorious may have a chance, but the bat might play at SS and be too light for 2B. H-Rod looks to have a chance with the bat, but I've read too many questions about his defense. I'd sign Phillips to bridge until Torreyes takes over. I don't want to suffer the drop in defense that will come with his departure and to come close to replacing it will require a big drop on the offensive side.

"All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS

Re: Phillips not thrilled about uncertain future

I'm actually surprised it took him this long to "make a stink" about it. (I use quotes because I don't think Brandon is really doing anything bad.) Most athletes in his situation --especially the outspoken kind like him -- would have been jawing about it all season. I give him credit for letting his play do "most" of the talking for him this season. I've been impressed with Brandon's attitude. We've always known he was a gamer who loved to win and he continues to prove that.

That said, pick up his option and that's it. Don't "pull an Arroyo" and overreact. You have him locked up for another full season by just picking up the option. So, pick up the option and don't do anything else for now. Hopefully they learned something from the Arroyo disaster. There was no reason to pick up Arroyo's option AND then extend him another two years on top of that. They should've just picked up his option and see how he did in 2011. I said that at the time -- this is by no means hindsight 20/20. So, hopefully they learned from that and realize THEY have the power here. Pick up BP's option then see how he looks in 2012. The Reds hold the cards here.

Re: Phillips not thrilled about uncertain future

The issue requires a bit more debate. There seems to be an assumption that BP can opt for 2012-type money ($10-12 mm per) once he hits the open market.
I'd say not.

Phillips is a premium, not an elite player. Second base is being filled by bats and FAs and converted shortstops.

Look at Orlando Hudson. He went FA after a .817 OPS season with Arizona at age 30. Gold Glove.

He signed for 1 year with LA for $3.3 MM, one year with Min for $5 mm and the Padres signed him for 2/9.5 with a $8 mm option in 2013 they might not pick up.
So O-Dog will have made $17.8 in 4 years after going FA and Maybe 25.8 in 5.
We're talking 4-5 mm per.

Uggla got the big money. 5/62 from the Braves at age 30. But Uggla had never had an OPS under .800 (until this year). Uggla is getting big bat money, not second baseman money.

Guys like Pedroia, Utley and Canó are in a different league as are their contracts.

I can understand BP's posturing. He has probably talked to Hudson and doesn't want to go that route. If I were the REDS, I TALK extension BEFORE picking up the 2012 option.
But extension along lines of 4/32 or 5/35. AND I look for other options. You can get a second baseman for a lot less than $10 million and use those savings to upgrade elsewhere (SP anyone?). If BP doesn't bite and another option isn't out there, welcome BP to the 2012 REDS.

"A person is smart. People are dumb, panicky, dangerous animals and you know it."

Re: Phillips not thrilled about uncertain future

Originally Posted by mth123

The Reds offer should be a 3 year front loaded deal with a vesting option for year 4. Year 1, $13 Million, year 2 $11 Million, Year 3 $9 Million. Year 4 an option at $12 Million that vests with 500 PAs in year 3. If the option doesn't vest the buy out is $2 Million.

That's too much money.

"A person is smart. People are dumb, panicky, dangerous animals and you know it."

Re: Phillips not thrilled about uncertain future

I'd talk to Phillips to gauge his interest and money expectations first. If it's anything more than $6 million per year, I'd deal him-- perhaps this offseason. He's the top 2B in the National League this year, everything considered.

A blockbuster deal that would makes sense for both sides would be to deal him to San Francisco. I'd think a Drew Stubbs and Brandon Phillips for Freddy Sanchez, Eric Surkamp, and Sergio Romo swap would be attractive to both teams.

Phillips would help the Giant offense a bit, if only because he stays healthier than Sanchez and has more power. His defense would allow San Francisco to shop for a FA SS like, say, Marco Scutaro, who doesn't have as much range, but still carries a plus bat. Stubbs would become the Giant CF and provide good power and range. He'd have been their best full-time OF this season (not counting Beltran). Add the two to the rest of the 2012 Giant team and you might actually have an above average San Francisco offense.

Romo becomes the Red closer, a vital role filled more than capably on the cheap. (That's the holy trinity of Redszone usefullness right there-- good, cheap, and underrated.) He's blocked by Wilson with the G-Men, and they have other options in a deep, deep bullpen, so, while he would be missed, he is replaceable. This would have the added benefit of allowing Jocketty and company to move Chapman to the rotation, as Romo is basically who the Reds want Chapman to become, perephially.

Freddy Sanchez balances out the salaries a bit but provides an above average option in Phillips' absence. (He'd be a nice bet to really take off with the GABP as home park, too. He might end up with 15 dingers in Cincinnati and a 300/340/425/765 line. Solid, that.) He is older, at 34, but, with Cairo (and perhaps Valaika) around, you might be able to gamble for a year or two on the veteran. He's a nice number two hitter as well.

Surkamp is a nice lefty prospect with middling stuff but success at the minor league level. In other words, he's Travis Wood without the big league experience. He'd be another arm to add to the mix, perhaps allowing Jocketty and company to deal from excess quantity to find quality in another deal later on.

"You can learn little from victory. You can learn everything from defeat."
-- Christy Matthewson
"Show me a good loser and I'll show you an idiot."
-- Leo Durocher

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