Favourites Phenomenon System Review

Favourites Phenomenon System Review

Favourites Phenomenon System

The Favourites Phenomenon System description is accessed from the members area of the Favourites Phenomenon website. There is also an Excel calculator to help run the system, calculating the stake for each bet, including instructions in PDF and Word formats. This calculator is provided in two versions, with and without Betfair commission.

The Favourites Phenomenon system costs £97. There is a bespoke betting bot for the system which runs the system for you and costs £35 per month.

The system is a Stop At A Winner, is only concerned with the backing of the outright favourite and restricts its use to UK racing only. No Irish.

There are twelve sections to the system description and each section is less than an A4 page making the the reading and understanding easy. In summary the system operates one betting cycle per day with the objective of generating 1 point profit. A betting cycle consists of a recommended number of races starting with the first race of the day on chronological order. If you hit a winner before the maximum number of races has been run then you have made your point profit for the day. If you haven’t hit a winner after the last race in the cycle has run, then it is recommended that you stop for the day and take the loss. A system cycle operates across meetings (i.e. the first race might be the 12:30 at Southwell, the second 12:40 at Cheltenham, etc)

Depending on your attitude to risk you can opt to run one of three cycles with a lesser or greater number of races to bet on. The lower the number of races, the lower is your liability on a losing day. However the smaller cycles do run a slightly greater risk of a losing day. Matt Watson, the Favourites Phenomenon author, quotes the strike rate for the system as follows:

Level 1 (Beginner Level) 87% strike rate

Level 2 (Intermediate Level) 94% strike rate

Level 3 (Advanced Level) 97% strike rate

Each level has a recommended points bank to cover the losing eventualities. Those are as follows:

Level 1 – 100 point bank

Level 2 – 150 point bank

Level 3 – 200 point bank

Within any cycle, there are rules that dictate which races to include in the cycle and which to exclude. These are quite straightforward and centre around monitoring the odds of the favourite and any close to the favourite. Bets may be placed with either a bookmaker or any exchange.

The intention is that you use the system calculator to work out the liability that you will encounter before racing commences. The recommendation is that you calculate the liability in the 30 minutes prior to the first race, ideally as close to the first race as possible, but within your comfort zone. If the calculated liability is lower than the recommended liability for your selected level of operation then you proceed with running a cycle, otherwise you abandon the system for that day.

There are also recommendations for running the system based upon the number of meetings in the day.

The one last significant recommendation of note is that the system is NOT run on a Saturday. The reason for this is that there is generally so much racing activity on a Saturday that races run too close to each other. Consequently, there is a distinct possibility that you will not know the result of one race in the cycle which is required to calculate your bet on the next race in the cycle.

It is probably worth noting here that the ‘rules’ for executing the Favourites Phenomenon System are more like guidelines. They are the rules recommended by the system author. It is left up to the individual if they want to relax any of the rules. For example, you can run the cycle on a higher calculated liability, but the author stresses that the system has been tested to his parameters, so it is completely at your own risk should you decide to do this.

Having summarised the system above, I will trial the system based on Level 1, the lowest liability and smallest number of races in a cycle.

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Favourites Phenomenon System Day 1 – 07.12.10

Today was the perfect day in that the first race produced a winner. As mentioned previously the system is ‘Stop at Winner”, the profit target had been reached therefore betting ceased.

Bets to complete cycle: 1

Profit: +1 point / +£10

Net Bank: +£10

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Favourites Phenomenon System Day 2 – 08.12.10

Number of bets to complete cycle: 5

Profit: +1 point / £10

Net Bank: +£20

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Favourites Phenomenon System Day 3 – 09.12.10

There were not enough meetings today (due to the adverse weather) to initiate the betting cycle, therefore no bets

Number of bets to complete cycle: 0

Profit: 0 points / £0

Net Bank: +£20

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Favourites Phenomenon System Day 4 – 10.12.10

The calculated liability was too high to initiate the betting cycle, therefore no bets

Number of bets to complete cycle: 0

Profit: 0 points / £0

Net Bank: +£20

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Favourites Phenomenon System Day 5 – 11.12.10

Saturday, therefore no bets

Number of bets to complete cycle: 0

Profit: 0 points / £0

Net Bank: +£20

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Favourites Phenomenon System Day 6 – 12.12.10

There were not enough meetings today (due to the adverse weather) to initiate the betting cycle, therefore no bets

Number of bets to complete cycle: 0

Profit: 0 points / £0

Net Bank: +£20

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Favourites Phenomenon System Day 7 – 13.12.10

The calculated liability was too high to initiate the betting cycle, therefore no bets

Number of bets to complete cycle: 0

Profit: 0 points / £0

Net Bank: +£20

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Favourites Phenomenon System Day 8 – 14.12.10

Unfortunately this was a losing day for the system. Apparently this is the first losing day since 1st August 2010 for level 3 stakers. The first favourite to win happened after 11 races, so whichever level was being followed, it would have been a losing day.

Number of bets to complete cycle: 5

Profit: -7 points / -£70

Net Bank: -£50

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Favourites Phenomenon System Day 9 – 15.12.10

Number of bets to complete cycle: 3

Profit: +1 point / £10

Net Bank: -£40

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Favourites Phenomenon System Day 10 – 16.12.10

Number of bets to complete cycle: 2

Profit: +1 point / £10

Net Bank: -£30

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Favourites Phenomenon System Day 11 – 17.12.10

The calculated liability was too high to initiate the betting cycle, therefore no bets

Number of bets to complete cycle: 0

Profit: 0 points / £0

Net Bank: -£30

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Favourites Phenomenon System Day 12 – 18.12.10

Saturday, therefore no bets

Number of bets to complete cycle: 0

Profit: 0 points / £0

Net Bank: -£30

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Favourites Phenomenon System Day 13 – 19.12.10

All racing abandoned today due to the snow

Number of bets to complete cycle: 0

Profit: 0 points / £0

Net Bank: -£30

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Favourites Phenomenon System Day 14 – 20.12.10

All racing has been abandoned today due to the snow, therefore no bets

Number of bets to complete cycle: 0

Profit: 0 points / £0

Net Bank: -£30

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Favourites Phenomenon System Day 15 – 21.12.10

The liability was too high to initiate a cycle for level 1 (the level we are working to), therefore there were no bets today.

This shows how important it is to stick with the rules of the system. The first winning favourite came in race 7 today, which would have been a winner for Level 2 and 3 operators (providing the liability dictated that a cycle should start). Staying within the rules of the system prevented a 9 point loss today.

Number of bets to complete cycle: 0

Profit: 0 points / £0

Net Bank: -£30

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Favourites Phenomenon System Day 16 – 22.12.10

Number of bets to complete cycle: 3

Profit: +1 point / +£10

Net Bank: -£20

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Favourites Phenomenon System festive Holidays – 23/24/25.12.10

No racing for the festive season – A Happy Christmas to all FP followers.

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Favourites Phenomenon System Day 17 – 26.12.10

Unfortunately the Boxing Day racing has been completely abandoned due to the cold weather.

Number of bets to complete cycle: 0

Profit: 0 points / +£0

Net Bank: -£20

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Favourites Phenomenon System Day 18 – 27.12.10

There was only one meeting today at Southwell, therefore, accordingto the rules of the system, it was not run .

Number of bets to complete cycle: 0

Profit: 0 points / £0

Net Bank: -£20

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Favourites Phenomenon System Day 19 – 28.12.10

Number of bets to complete cycle: 1

Profit: +1 point / +£10

Net Bank: -£10

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Favourites Phenomenon System Day 20 – 29.12.10

A good, steady recovery for the system since the losing day on 14th December. Today’s win means taht the system is now it breakeven. The recovery has perhaps been a little slower than normal due to the festive season holidays and plethora of snow abandoned meetings, but nevertheless a good recovery. Hopefully things will be in the black from here.

Number of bets to complete cycle: 2

Profit: +1 point / +£10

Net Bank: £0 (back to break even)

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Favourites Phenomenon System Day 21 – 30.12.10

Woo Hoo! Back in the black with another win today!

Number of bets to complete cycle: 5

Profit: +1 point / +£10

Net Bank: +£10

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Favourites Phenomenon System Day 22 – 31.12.10

Another win today. A good way to end 2010!

Number of bets to complete cycle: 4

Profit: +1 point / +£10

Net Bank: +£20

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A Favourites Phenomenon Happy New Year

Favourites Phenomenon System Day 23 – 01.01.11

A Happy and Profitable Betting New Year to all Onlinebettinexposed followers.

Today is a no bet day folloing the system rules as it is a Saturday.

Number of bets to complete cycle: 0

Profit: 0 points / £0

Net Bank: +£20

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Favourites Phenomenon System Day 24 – 02.01.11

The system was not run today, even though it was a Sunday because there were a number of long (2 mile+) cards that only had 5 minutes between the start of the races. Just like a Saturday, this would mean that there would not be sufficient time between races to return the result from the previous race, calculate and place the next bet.

This is a scenario that is highlighted for a Saturday in the manual, however there is nothing to warn that it might happen on another day. So this is an aspect to be aware of when running this system.

Number of bets to complete cycle: 0

Profit: 0 points / £0

Net Bank: +£20

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Favourites Phenomenon System Day 25 – 03.01.11

The system was not run today, due to it being a Bank Holiday. Just like a Saturday some races were only 5 minutes apart, this would mean that there would not be sufficient time between races to return the result from the previous race, calculate and place the next bet.

Number of bets to complete cycle: 0

Profit: 0 points / £0

Net Bank: +£20

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Favourites Phenomenon System Day 26 – 04.01.11

Another winning day adding another point to the bank.

Number of bets to complete cycle: 5

Profit: 1 points / +£10

Net Bank: +£30

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Favourites Phenomenon System Day 27 – 05.01.11

The calculated liability was too high to initiate the betting cycle, therefore no bets

Number of bets to complete cycle: 0

Profit: 0 points / £0

Net Bank: +£30

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Favourites Phenomenon System Day 28 – 06.01.11

Another point in the bank with a win today!

Number of bets to complete cycle: 1

Profit: +1 points / +£10

Net Bank: +£40

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Favourites Phenomenon System Day 29 – 07.01.11

The calculated liability was too high to initiate the betting cycle, therefore no bets

Number of bets to complete cycle: 0

Profit: 0 points / £0

Net Bank: +£40

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Favourites Phenomenon System Day 30 – 08.01.11

Today is a no bet day following the system rules as it is a Saturday.

Number of bets to complete cycle: 0

Profit: 0 points / £0

Net Bank: +£40

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Favourites Phenomenon System Day 31 – 09.01.11

Due to abandoned meetings, under the system rules there were insufficient meetings to initiate a betting cycle.

Number of bets to complete cycle: 0

Profit: 0 points / £0

Net Bank: +£40

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Favourites Phenomenon System Day 32 – 10.01.11

A good day, with only one bet being made to make the target of 1 point.

Number of bets to complete cycle: 1

Profit: +1 point / +£10

Net Bank: +£50

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Favourites Phenomenon System Day 33 – 11.01.11

The calculated liability was too high to initiate the betting cycle, therefore no bets

Number of bets to complete cycle: 0

Profit: 0 points / £0

Net Bank: +£50

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Favourites Phenomenon System Day 34 – 12.01.11

The calculated liability was too high to initiate the betting cycle, therefore no bets

Number of bets to complete cycle: 0

Profit: 0 points / £0

Net Bank: +£50

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Favourites Phenomenon System Day 35 – 13.01.11

Another good day, with only one bet being made to make the target of 1 point.

Number of bets to complete cycle: 1

Profit: +1 point / +£10

Net Bank: +£60

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Favourites Phenomenon System Day 36 – 14.01.11

Another point in the bank with a win today!

Number of bets to complete cycle: 1

Profit: +1 point / +£10

Net Bank: +£70

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Favourites Phenomenon System Day 37 – 15.01.11

Today is a no bet day following the system rules as it is a Saturday.

Number of bets to complete cycle: 0

Profit: 0 points / £0

Net Bank: +£70

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Favourites Phenomenon System Day 38 – 16.01.11

Another point in the bank with a win today – in the best way possible – 1st bet!

Number of bets to complete cycle: 1

Profit: +1 point / +£10

Net Bank: +£80

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Favourites Phenomenon System Day 39 – 17.01.11

The calculated liability was too high to initiate the betting cycle, therefore no bets.

This was another important day to follow the rules of the system. For all those following Levels 1 and 2, this would have been another losing day (and a very hefty one at that). Level 3 would have won by the 9th race, but the liability was so high that you would have been risking over 100 points!

Number of bets to complete cycle: 0

Profit: 0 points / £0

Net Bank: +£80

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Favourites Phenomenon System Day 40 – 18.01.11

Unfortunately this was a losing day for the system. The first favourite to win happened after 9 races, so level 2 staking would have been a losing day, BUT level 3 would have been successful.

Number of bets to complete cycle: 5

Profit: -5.9 points / -£59

Net Bank: +£21

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Favourites Phenomenon System Day 41 – 19.01.11

The calculated liability was too high to initiate the betting cycle, therefore no bets

Number of bets to complete cycle: 0

Profit: 0 points / £0

Net Bank: +£21

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Favourites Phenomenon System Day 42 – 20.01.11

Another losing day on the Level 1 staking level for Favourites Phenomenon. The first favourite to win happened after 7 races, so both levels 2 and 3 staking would have been successful. Today’s loss was only 3 points because the odds in the first five qualifying races were relatively long as favourites go, which helped minimise the loss.

Whilst there has been a couple of losing days close to each other this is the nature of the averages game. With a 75% strike rate for level 1, there is conversely a 25% chance of a losing day. In the ideal world we would all like them evenly distributed, but in practise they dictate when they want to happen and if they all happen together then we just have to suck it up and carry on.

Number of bets to complete cycle: 5

Profit: -3 points / -£30

Net Bank: -£11

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Favourites Phenomenon System Day 43 – 21.01.11

The system was not run today. Due to the extreme overnight frost, three meetings were abandonned, which meant that there was only one afternoon meeting. The rules of the system state that there must be more than one afternoon meeting in order to start a betting cycle.

Number of bets to complete cycle: 0

Profit: 0 points / £0

Net Bank: -£11

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Favourites Phenomenon System Day 44 – 22.01.11

Today is a no bet day following the system rules as it is a Saturday.

Number of bets to complete cycle: 0

Profit: 0 points / £0

Net Bank: -£11

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Favourites Phenomenon System Day 45 – 23.01.11

Back to winning ways today – in the best way possible – 1st bet!

Number of bets to complete cycle: 1

Profit: +1 point / +£10

Net Bank: -£1

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Favourites Phenomenon System Day 46 – 24.01.11

Another point in the bank with a win today!

Number of bets to complete cycle: 1

Profit: +1 point / +£10

Net Bank: +£9

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Favourites Phenomenon System Day 47 – 25.01.11

The calculated liability was too high to initiate the betting cycle, therefore no bets

Number of bets to complete cycle: 0

Profit: 0 points / £0

Net Bank: +£9

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Favourites Phenomenon System Day 48 – 26.01.11

Another point to the bank with a win today

Number of bets to complete cycle: 4

Profit: +1 point / +£10

Net Bank: +£19

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Favourites Phenomenon System Day 49 – 27.01.11

Another point to the bank with a win today

Number of bets to complete cycle: 3

Profit: +1 point / +£10

Net Bank: +£29

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Favourites Phenomenon System Day 50 – 28.01.11

Another point to the bank with a win today

Number of bets to complete cycle: 2

Profit: +1 point / +£10

Net Bank: +£39

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Favourites Phenomenon System Day 51 – 29.01.11

Today is a no bet day following the system rules as it is a Saturday.

Number of bets to complete cycle: 0

Profit: 0 points / £0

Net Bank: +£39

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Favourites Phenomenon System Day 52 – 30.01.11

Another point to the bank with a win today

Number of bets to complete cycle: 2

Profit: +1 point / +£10

Net Bank: +£49

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Favourites Phenomenon System Day 53 – 31.01.11

Another point to the bank with a win today

Number of bets to complete cycle: 2

Profit: +1 point / +£10

Net Bank: +£59

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Favourites Phenomenon System Day 54 – 01.02.11

Another point to the bank with a win today

Number of bets to complete cycle: 2

Profit: +1 point / +£10

Net Bank: +£69

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Favourites Phenomenon System Day 55 – 02.02.11

Back to the way we like things, a win on the first race of the day.

Number of bets to complete cycle: 1

Profit: +1 point / +£10

Net Bank: +£79

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Favourites Phenomenon System Day 56 – 03.02.11

Well this is the last day that I will be reviewing the Favourites Phenomenon system, and it goes out with a bang with a win on the first race of the day. I will post the final review shortly, so watch this space.