Surgical Strike 2.0: The New Indian Paradigm

The dastardly suicide
bombing of a CRPF convoy on 14th February 2019 in Pulwama, Jammu
& Kashmir by Jaish E Mohammad was the worst attack on Indian security
forces over two decades martyring nearly 41 CRPF Jawans from across India
travelling on Jammu-Srinagar highway. Its effects will reverberate for months
and years to come. The Uri terrorist attack in September 2016 was retaliated
with surgical strikes by the Indian Army across Line of Control marking a tactical
shift of owning up to covert operations carried out across LOC. The surgical
strikes post Uri set a new benchmark for an Indian response to cross border
terrorism sponsored by Pakistan. The Pulwama terror attack thus mandated a more
muscular and effective response to the Pakistan army and its jihadi battalions
by an enraged India demanding vengeance for the attack carried out by Jaish E
Mohammad whose chief Maulana Masood Azhar roams around Pakistan with impunity.

The Indian response to Pulwama marked a paradigm shift in strategy in countering terror emanating across the border in Pakistan. The response to Pakistan sponsored terror was hybrid with India first withdrawing Most Favoured Nation (MFN) status under WTO trade regime and imposing 200% tariffs on imports from Pakistan. These low hanging fruits brought cement exports from Pakistan to a halt as trucks stood stranded on Wagah border. It is an open secret that most trade/industries in Pakistan are controlled by Pakistani Army and its generals through various companies. Along with trade/economic measures, a diplomatic offensive was mounted with India inviting envoys from P5 countries, ASEAN, SAARC and the Middle East giving them complete dossiers and proof of Pakistani involvement in aiding and abetting the Pulwama terror attack claimed by Jaish E Mohammad.

The diplomatic efforts of
Government of India bore fruit with US National Security Advisor John Bolton
expressing solidarity with Indian NSA Ajit Doval and backing India’s ‘Right of
Self Defence’ against terror emanating from territories in Pakistan. The
backing followed by France in India’s open support led to USA moving UNSC for a
fresh resolution to sanction Masood Azhar, JeM’s chief in Pakistan under UNSC
sanction list which China has been blocking for years now. The resolution had
the backing of US, France, UK and Russia forcing China to make its stand in
support of terror clear in the weeks to follow. The Chinese backing to Pakistan
has been clearly visible as China even attempted to block UNSC condemnation of
Pulwama attack by sticking on issues/wordings of the statement; asking for
“Indian Occupied Kashmir” and avoiding mention of Jaish E Mohammad. The
Americans and French lobbied heavily for India with other UNSC members thus
overcoming the Chinese objections that was finally issued a week after the
Pulwama attack clearly mentioning Jammu & Kashmir and Jaish E Mohammad as a
terrorist group.

In view of the frontal
Chinese opposition to India and its backing of Pakistan, India further
strengthened its diplomatic offensive as its NSA Ajit Doval dialed NSA of US,
France, Russia and UK detailing them about India’s intentions to take action on
terror groups operating in Pakistan in view of Pulwama. Through diplomatic
channels India build a watertight case for a military operation across the
border in POK and Pakistan marking a paradigm shift in the Indian security and
defence doctrine. On 26th February 2019 at around 3:45 AM IST, the
Indian Airforce (IAF) carried our airstrikes on Jaish E Mohammad terrorist
camps operating in Balakot, Chakothi and Muzaffarabad with 12 Mirage 2000 Jets
dropping approximately 1000 kg of bombs on these sites. This is probably the
first time IAF crossed the Line of Control and struck deep into Khyber Pakhtun
province of Pakistan after 1971 War. This attack on JeM terror training camp
using pre-GPS fed Israeli-made Spice 2000 smart missiles is estimated to have
killed scores of terrorist operatives stationed at the terror camp. (The Indian
govt is yet to release the exact numbers). IAF had also sent a decoy of Sukhoi
SU 30s towards Bahawalpur to confuse PAF about the real targets in Balakot
simultaneously. The IAF successfully carried out the operation whilst making it
clear that it was a non-military operation targeting the terror groups not the
Pakistan state or its military establishment or its civilians. The Indian side
also made it clear it did not want further escalation.

The Pakistani Army
(DGISPR) initially confirmed that Indian Airforce entered Pakistan airspace
while denying the strike on JeM facility stating that IAF simply dropped the
payload and scrambled back once intercepted by Pakistani Airforce’s F-16 Jets. These
vociferous denials were followed by calls for retribution with the Pakistani
polity baying for Prime Minister Imran Khan and COAS General Bajwa to retaliate
against Indian Air Strikes in Pakistan. However, given the heightened state of
alert and hysteria, the PAF responded to IAF strikes in 24 hours when 20 of its
jets comprising F-16’s, Mirages & JF-17 intruded into Indian Airspace
across the LOC in Rajouri in Jammu & Kashmir in the morning of 27th
February 2019.

The PAF jets were
intercepted by the IAF jets comprising of Sukhoi SU-30, Mirage 2000 and MiG 21
Bison who were already on combat patrol in the Kashmir valley along the line of
control. The PAF jets tried to bomb the Brigade HQ in Rajouri missing it by a
whisker in a clear act of war. The PAF jets were chased back across the LOC
when India’s MIG 21 Bison shot down a Pakistani F-16 while getting hit by anti-aircraft
gun across the LOC. This daring dog fight on the LoC marked the first and most
audacious kill of a far superior F-16 jet by a Soviet era MIG 21 Bison which
the IAF operates. The Indian Pilot Wing Commander Abhinandan Varthaman ejected
on being shot down and landed in Pakistani occupied territory. On landing, he
was attacked by the locals and later taken into custody by Pakistani Army
marking the next dramatic phase in the unfolding situation between two nuclear
powered neighbours. Meanwhile, the two
Pakistani F-16 pilots shot down by MiG 21 also ejected; and one of them Wing
Commander Shahzaz Ud Din (Son of Air Marshal Waseem ud Din, DCAS Operations of
PAF) of 19 Squadron was attacked by the locals (mistaking him to be an Indian
pilot) and later succumbed to the serious injuries which he suffered on landing.

The Indian government
which was already in a heightened state of alert after Pulwama attack started
moving infantry to its western border, mobilizing assets and troops swung into
action temporary closing the airspace over North India for a few hours before
reopening it by the afternoon of 27th February. Enraged by the PAF’s
attempt to strike on the Indian military establishment and the captivity of its
pilot Abhinandan Varthaman; the Indian government asked Pakistan to immediately
release its pilot with no bargaining or conditions. Simultaneously, the
Pakistani propaganda machinery went into overdrive and activated its media
assets to start frenzy for the Wing Commander’s release on lines of the
Kandahar hijacking to obtain an exit route. In the meanwhile, the International
Community woke up to the near war scenario in the Sub Continent and asked India
and Pakistan to not escalate matters further. It is believed that in aftermath
of PAF aggression on Indian Military, the Indian government further moved its
assets on war footing in North Western India, moving Tanks, Armoured vehicles,
troops, and even deploying the Indian Navy in full force off the Gujarat Coast
in operational readiness to strike in case Pakistan didnt relent on giving back
the Indian Pilot as per the Geneva Convention.

On the night of 27th
February 2019, seeming an immediate escalation to the PAF aggression in
Rajouri, Pakistan closed its airspace while ordering blackouts in its cities
from Karachi to Lahore anticipating an Indian strike in retaliation. Pakistan
is expected to have dialled the Americans, Saudis along with UAE to diffuse the
situation which was at the brink of a full-blown war as IAF sorties were being
reported across Indian town and cities as well. The American pressure followed
by Saudi on Pakistan categorically impressed upon the Pakistani civilian leadership
and its military establishment to relent on any further escalation and release
the Indian pilot forthwith to deescalate the crisis. By the afternoon of 1st
March 2019, the International diplomatic efforts coupled with Indian military
threat forced it to capitulate as Pakistani PM Imran Khan unilaterally
announced the release the captive Indian Pilot Abhinandan Varthaman
unconditionally bringing down the temperature several notches below from the
brink of war. Abhinandan Varthaman was finally handed over to India at Wagah border
crossing in late evening on 1st March 2019 after Pakistani Army
released a shameful propaganda video for domestic consumption of its public. The
severely edited video clearly showed Wing Commander speaking under duress with
multiple bruises and cuts on his face in a clear violation of the Geneva
Convention.

While the immediate crisis
may have deescalated a bit from the brink of war there are no signs of
hostilities ending between the two nations. While Pakistan’s “peaceful gesture”
of handing over the Indian pilot was taking place, it violated ceasefire in
multiple venues simultaneously clearly exhibiting the nature of its gesture.
Resultantly, India opened up barrage of 155 MM artillery fire in night of 1st
March across the LOC inflicting huge damage to Pakistani positions in POK.
Indian military still maintains full operational readiness to strike Pakistan
from Land, Sea and Air; including target terror camps at will that are
operating inside Pakistan or Pakistani Occupied Jammu & Kashmir. This
multi-pronged response by IAF strikes
deep inside Pakistan, along with a global diplomatic offensive against
anti-terror operations and the trade, economic offensive on Pakistan indeed
marks a paradigm shift in the Indian security doctrine in countering Pakistan’s
state sponsored terrorism low-cost warfare method of bleeding India by an
thousand cuts.

The Indian military
response along with diplomatic offensive has internationally isolated Pakistan
with most P5 powers siding with India apart from China who also been ambivalent
post IAF strikes in Pakistan. The Americans have openly come out in support of
India even backing Indian counterterror ops carried out in Pakistan and
cornering China at UNSC with France and UK. The deepening strategic engagement between
India and US has probably been the highlight of International Diplomacy in this
crisis. The Americans want a stronger India playing a proactive role in the
region to corner China. Also, a weakened Pakistan under fire from India, Iran
and even Afghanistan would strengthen the American hand at negotiations with
Taliban in Afghanistan which Pakistan’s military and ISI has cultivated to gain
strategic depth. Resultantly, China would be in a bigger fix given as it could
lose the extra leverage it had over Pakistan through its hired guns in form of
Jaish E Mohammad as a low cost containment of India. China is also likely to
come under fire from an infuriated Donald Trump who will further target it on
trade after its ‘complicated’ ally Kim Jong-un walked out of the denuclearization
talks at Hanoi in Vietnam. Even the Organization of Islamic Countries (OIC) of
whom Pakistan is a founding member snubbed Pakistan’s objection and invited
India as guest of honour in Dubai clearly exemplifying India’s rise as global
power and Pakistan’s growing international isolation. in all these events,
India’s oldest defence partner Russia’s lack of strong statement of
condemnation and participation at UNSC has been interesting and a probable sign
of the growing closeness in Sino-Russian marriage of convenience. Russia’s
stand has been at a complete contrast to Israel that offered “unconditional
help to help India to defend itself”.

This crisis also presents
an opportunity for Military Industrial Complex of US, France and Russia to
offer more lucrative deals to India. Lockheed Martin whose top billed F-16 was
shot down in combat by MIG 21 on LOC would now need to come up with a better
offer instead of offering the F-16’s rebranded version of F-21 to India. India
is also slated to be reaching out to United States on how an F-16 with AMRAAM
Missile (of which it showed proof) was used against India as American manufactured
jets given to Pakistan for War on terror in Afghanistan cannot be used against
India who is major strategic and defence partner of United States! The
Pakistani military will thus have a lot of explaining to do to Pentagon on the
use of F-16s against India in combat. French MIC has been a clear winner with
its Mirage doing a class act as has the Russian MIC that has been able to
showcase its superior hardware. The Indian purchase of Rafale ensures better
cooperation between India and France.

The international diplomacy by the Indian government, military strikes has been ably complemented by an internal crackdown on the separatist elements in the Kashmir valley with the arrest of Hurriyat leaders and banning Jamaat E Islami who has been at the forefront as Pakistan proxies abetting terror in the Jammu & Kashmir. This crackdown along with IT raids, seizures is much need measures to break the terror network and its sympathizers in J&K. Thus the Surgical Strikes 2.0 conducted by IAF on 26th February along diplomatic and economic measures mark a paradigm shift in Indian Security establishment policy in dealing with Pakistani sponsored terrorism. That fact that the Indian State and its military are now willing to push the redlines of conventional methods further, show the will and intent to strike across LOC even into Pakistan at will is a huge statement which will resonate for the times to come. It is possibly the time for the Pakistani Army and its generals to understand that from now on Pakistan will have to pay a huge cost for sponsoring and abetting terrorism against India as an instrument of state policy. The paradigm shift in India’s security and defence doctrine is reflective of a New India that will no longer take things lying down and respond in a disproportionate manner to any provocation which Pakistan may try in future.

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