Friday, October 20, 2006

Week Eight - Get Gamm ... Illinois at Penn StateMichigan State at NorthwesternWisconsin at PurdueIndiana at Ohio StateNorth Dakota State at MinnesotaIowa at Michigan (Tiebreaker)

Illinois at Penn StateJust when it looked like Illinois might be coming around (after the road win at Michigan State) the Illini lay double eggs at home no less against Indiana and Ohio. Okay, so the loss to the Hoosiers doesn’t look as bad as it could have but we’re talking about a team that could – no, make that should - be sitting at 4-3 rather than 2-5. All the Illini have to do now is travel to Happy Valley and Madison on consecutive weeks before a date with Ohio State. Can you say 2-8?

Then again, Penn State is hurting (literally) after a tough home loss to Michigan. Both Anthony Morelli and Daryll Clark went out with concussions last week leaving third stringer Paul Cianciolo as a very realistic option this week. Against anyone else, that might worry me a bit, but Illinois is just too young at quarterback and on defense to pull off this sort of road victory. The Penn State defense dominates and the Nittany Lions get back on track before a mini-road trip the next few weeks. Penn State 24 – Illinois 7.

Dan Meyer says … No respite for the Illini, Happy Valley after a PSU loss is no place to be. The Lion CBs, LBs and WRs have enough electricity to overcome one round of "Juice". Illinois 10 - PENN STATE 27

Michigan State at NorthwesternThe battle for the basement... or at least a share with Minnesota (0-4 and out of conference this weekend). Northwestern has no offense. Michigan State has lost its "O" since the fourth quarter of the Notre Dame fiasco, scoring 20, 13 and 7 points to open Big Ten play. The Spartans are also mighty dinged up. Javon Ringer, a sophomore back much in the mold of Northwestern star Tyrell Sutton is out for the season. The offensive line is in shambles. Drew Stanton wouldn't be playing if he were just about any other quarterback in the game. This all works to the Wildcats' advantage in terms of evening things out a bit.

If the Wildcats are to beat the Spartans like they did last year (49-14) or at all, they will have to control the ball and the clock. Even the beleaguered MSU secondary isn't too afraid of the NU aerial attack. If the Spartans are to finally shake their losing ways and get back on track for a big finish, they have to find consistency on offense. Makes what could otherwise be a pretty boring game a somewhat intriguing match-up. Michigan State 27 - Northwestern 17.

Dan Meyer says ... A MUST win for the Spartans to keep bowl hopes alive--or avoid a complete collapse for that matter. The spirit (and effort) is there for the Wildcats, but there is too great a talent differential. MICHIGAN STATE 21 - Northwestern 14

Wisconsin at PurdueFor my money, the game of the week in the Big Ten. Michigan and Iowa is the tiebreaker and should get the monicker, but these teams are the forgotten two. Both have one loss and are right on the tails of Michigan and Ohio State. Purdue gets the break of the year and plays neither. Wisconsin already took its lumps from Michigan and also misses Ohio State. That all makes this one even bigger.

Purdue is back to the basketball on grass ways and the fans are loving it. Curtis Painter suddenly looks like the next great QB to come out of West Lafayette after his deer in the headlights start in the middle of last season. Wisconsin is getting it done the old fashioned way too - with a big, bruising tailback, an efficient quarterback and a sound defense. The advantage here goes to Wisconsin only because, well, Purdue frankly isn't playing much defense these days. In an overtime thriller... Wisconsin 31 - Purdue 24.

Dan Meyer says ... I REALLY wanted to pick the Boilers, but the Badgers are presently playing better than any Big Ten team not located on US 23. The Boiler defense is getting better, but will not be able to overcome the mighty Badger O-line. Purdue's best hope: "dink and dunk" with Painter and have good things happen on special teams. WISCONSIN 35 - Purdue 28 (please prove me wrong, Boilers).

Indiana at Ohio StateDon't look now but the Hoosiers are one game out of first place. No, that is not a misprint, although it will be a quick fall from glory after a trip to Columbus this weekend. The biggest disappointment about the tremendous league start for IU is the two they let get away. Beat Southern Illinois - 1AA Southern Illinois that is - and UConn and the cream and crimson would be - gasp - 6-1 right now and bowl bound for the first time in years.

There isn't much to write about this one. Ohio State is clearly the best team in the land (sorry Michigan, USC, West Virginia and Louisville fans) and should have their way with Indiana. IU may play inspired ball early but will get gassed late and engulfed by the rabid Buckeye faithful. Troy Smith puts another notch on his Heisman quest and Ted Ginn scores via pass, run and return. Ohio State 37 - Indiana 3.

Dan Meyer says ... It's been a fairy-tale last five quarters for the Hoosiers, but the clock strikes twelve with a venegance Saturday. Lewis and Hardy will make a few plays; Smith, Ginn, Gonzales and Pittman will make more. Indiana 14 - OHIO STATE 38

North Dakota State at MinnesotaDon't laugh, but this could be the third 1AA upset of a Big Ten team this year. North Dakota State is a top ten team in 1AA ball and has already beaten MAC team Ball State. Minnesota meanwhile is reeling. The defense is really banged up, the offense is struggling of late and there is mounting pressure to win to keep the bowl streak alive. This isn't the typical easy OOC foe that Minnesota faces, but the Golden Gophers will eke out a victory. Minnesota 27 - NDSU 23.

Dan Meyer says ... Minnesota's situation is similar to the Spartans--or would be except for a questionable pass interference call in the Penn State game. The Gophers take out four weeks of frustration on their non-conference opponents, then look forward to playing spoiler in the Big Ten in following weeks. North Dakota State 10 - MINNESOTA 27

Iowa at MichiganThis is the last real test for Michigan in a quest to stroll into Columbus on November 18 ranked number two (or better if OSU slips along the way). Iowa has not lost back to back games since 2001 but is facing a third loss in four Big Ten tries when they travel to Ann Arbor to face the Wolverines.

Michigan might have the best defense in the nation since their 1997 title team. Iowa is really pressing of late and though bowl eligibility won't be a problem this year, the chances for a New Year's Day berth are fading away. If the Hawkeyes are to have a shot, they are going to have to be able to run the ball and avoid the surprising mistakes that have plagued Drew Tate in losses this year. Michigan meanwhile proved that even without their best receiver, they can duke out a win and strong running game plus stellar defense equals another win for the maize and blue. Michigan 20 - Iowa 10.

Dan Meyer says ... A must have for the Hawks to have ANY chance in the Big Ten race--and they refind their "A" game (see Purdue two weeks ago) and throw a HUGE scare to the Wolverine faithful. Rivas is the unlikely hero late. Iowa 21 - MICHIGAN 24

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