Archives for May 2019

There were 16 games in MLS this week which meant lots of teams played twice, but NYCFC had the week off. It turned into a case of move forward by standing still. Midweek, the only East conference team to win was Atlanta, who won their fifth straight by shutout, setting a new record. All other Eastern teams either lost or split points (Toronto and DC). Then came the weekend and the trend continued, as East teams drew or lost with two exceptions:

The Red Bulls beat Atlanta while down to 10 men for most of the game, as result which was probably for the best, given the location and current position and trends for both teams (setting aside the always preferred draw); and

Orlando handily beat Cincinnati, which is not ideal but not particularly troublesome either.

At the top of the Table, Toronto and DC both got just 1 point out of 6, Philadelphia and Montreal both 1 of 3 at home, and Atlanta did the best with a middling 3 of 6. The only teams to improve their PPG were below the playoff line last week on the PPG table (and the Revolution only improved by earning 1 point because their PPG is so low).

NYCFC did not move in position yet its PPG relative to almost everyone else improved. Also, NYC now has played fewer games than everyone in the conference, which is a mixed blessing but definitely an opportunity.

NYCFC now controls its own place in the final season standings, which simply means they can guarantee they finish first if they somehow win all their remaining games. That’s highly unlikely, but also was not true last week or most of the year. The point is that NYCFC received a lot of help this week and now the team has to take advantage of it.

It’s hard to see but that brown line above all others represents both Philadelphia and DC, who have matched each other result-for result at the top for 3 games now. At this point in the season I find the bottom chart more useful for understanding both where everyone is combined with how many games they have played. At the end of next week, NYCFC will have the fewest games played of any team in the East. Right now, only the 2 leaders mentioned above have done better than NYC through 11 games, though Atlanta has a better PPG through 10 games.

And also note, that just like that, the East has a better combined PPG than the West, and it’s not all Colorado dragging them down. The East now has a slight advantage in the head to head match-up, but where they win the overall PPG is in the middle of the table. The top of the West is doing much better than anybody in the East.

For NYCFC, I don’t think many anticipated getting above the blue line so soon after 5 points and no wins in the first 6 games. The how-do-we-get-to table also looks more reasonable, with that elusive 60-something neighborhood looking possible (not probable but possible) for the first time in a while.

Finally, another 6 or so games of good underlying data, good form and good results, and I’ll consider replacing 2015 in the year-to-year line graphs:

2016 remains an apt comparison, and the lines act as a reminder that after the initial bad start with way too many home draws, NYCFC recovered with 3 straight wins, only to slide back down with 2 points in 4 games that included the RB Wedding and a dispiriting home loss to a weak RSL side. Whether the 2019 edition does anything similar is not necessarily dispositive of anything, but my sense is they end up somewhere in the same mid-50 point neighborhood, however they get there.