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Please Fasten Your Seat Belts, Jobs Report Ahead

So obviously it was a relatively quiet overnight session as the entire world focuses on the February payrolls report, not so much because anyone outside of the US gives a sh*t about the extent to which American employers are feeling “great again” about the outlook for the economy, but rather because of the implications today’s NFP print has for the trajectory of Fed policy.

That is, a March hike may be a foregone conclusion (oh what a difference four weeks makes in that regard), but if we get a barnburner today to match Wednesday’s ADP data, well then you might want to factor in one more hike this year.

Speaking of the dollar, Bloomberg notes the greenback “swung between gains and losses [overnight] as the Dollar Spot Index was set for it biggest weekly increase this year, and reached its highest level since Jan. 20 as traders positioned for a stronger-than- expected employment report, only to reverse its early daily advance as the London session got underway.” Here’s what that looks like:”

Meanwhile, WTI rose on the day but stayed below $50/bbl after (another) sharp decline on Thursday. “It felt a bit like a balloon popping,” Michael Poulsen, analyst at Global Risk Management told Bloomberg. “It’s never a one-way direction. There’s usually a breather.” Yeah, well not this time, Michael. And I could have told you this was coming two months ago.

You should also note that a South Korean court upheld the impeachment of Park Geun-hye raising the specter of prison and closing the book on a dramatic reversal of fortune. The decision triggers elections that must be held within 60 days. Here’s a rundown of analyst reactions (via Bloomberg):

National Australia Bank (Christy Tan, head of markets strategy)

Ruling is positive for South Korean stocks as investors can now move on and shift their focus to the presidential election

Potential candidates have all committed to chaebol reform and that’s perceived as Kospi-positive in the medium term

KRW will likely track the broader USD trend and bias is for USD/KRW to test 1,165.5 100-day moving average in near term