Weather in Puerto Rico on November

.SYNOPSIS...INDUCED SURFACE TROUGH SOUTH AND WEST OF THE AREA AND WEAK HIGHPRESSURE RIDGE JUST NORTH OF THE AREA WILL MAINTAIN A LIGHT EASTERLYTRADE WIND FLOW ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...THEN BECOMING MORE NORTHEASTERLYBY THURSDAY AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS THE INDUCED SURFACE TROUGHWEAKENS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE NOTED OVER THE COASTAL WATERSOF EASTERN PUERTO RICO AND ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS EARLYTHIS MORNING. LATEST SATELITE IMAGES SHOWS A LINE OF MOISTUREEXTENDING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH EAST OF THE ISLANDS. THIS LINE WILLMOVE DURING THE MORNING HOURS OVER PUERTO RICO...BRINGING SOMESHOWERS MAINLY ALONG THE NORTH COAST OF PUERTO RICO. A EAST TONORTHEAST WIND FLOW IS DOMINATING THE LOCAL REGION TODAY. THECOMBINATION OF DAYTIME HEATING...WITH AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILLRESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS WITH THUNDERSTORMS OVER THEINTERIOR SECTION OF PUERTO RICO. WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED WINDFLOW...THE AFTERNOON ACTIVITY WILL AFFECT THE SOUTHWESTERNSECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.

GENERAL STABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OVERTHE REGION NEXT FEW DAYS...AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CONTINUESDOMINATING THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN. PW VALUES WILL REMAIN NEAR 1.5TO 1.75 INCHES THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHEREVENTS ARE FORECAST TO AFFECT THE LOCAL REGION NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL TAF SITESDURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF VCSH ESPECIALLYAROUND TJSJ. WIND WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT...EASTNORTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL DOMINATE ON THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...A NEW GROUP OF NORTHEAST SWELLS GENERATED FROM A DISTANT AREA OFLOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST ATLANTIC...WILL START ARRIVINGINTO THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS LATE TONIGHT. REFER TO MARINEPRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE IN SAN JUAN.

.UPDATE...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND DOPPLER WEATHER RADARSHOWED A SURGE OF LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE ACCOMPANYING ANEASTERLY PERTURBATION MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN LEEWARDS ANDQUICKLY APPROACHING THE LOCAL AREA. EXPECTED THIS AREA OF MOISTURETO BRING A GRADUAL INCREASE IN PWAT VALUES AND THUS ADDITIONALSHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS PARTS OF THE ISLANDS OVERNIGHT THROUGHSATURDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO SUNDAY. UPPER RIDGE WILL ALSO CONTINUETO ERODE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND ALSO ALLOW FOR BETTER CHANCE OFENHANCED DAYTIME CONVECTION ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND PARTS OF THEVIRGIN ISLANDS...AS OCCASIONAL PATCHES OF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TOMAKE THEIR WAY ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.INHERITED FORECAST PACKAGE AND REASONING LOOKS GOOD FOR NOW AND NOCHANGES MADE AT THIS TIME.

.SYNOPSIS...RIDGE PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN TONIGHT ASSHORTWAVE-TROUGH ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES AMPLIFY AS IT MOVESACROSS THE ATLC. LOW PRES IS FCST TO DEVELOP NE OF THE LEEWARDISLANDS MON NIGHT WITH FRESH NNE WINDS ESTABLISHING MON.

&&

.DISCUSSION...STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION IN PLACE AS SEEN ON 00ZJSJ RAOB. THIS TO LIMIT AFTERNOON CONVECTION TO JUST SPRINKLES ORVERY SHALLOW SHOWERS. S/W TROUGH ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES WILLEMERGE INTO THE WRN ATLC SAT AND BEGIN TO ERODE RIDGE PATTERNESTABLISHED ACROSS THE CARIB. AS S/W TROUGH AMPLIFIES ACROSS THESW ATLC THIS WILL PROMOTE MOISTURE TRANSPORT...WEAKEN THE CAP ANDSTEEPEN LAPSE RATES ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT CONVECTION TOGRADUALLY INCREASE SAT AND SUN WITH THE HEAVIEST ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTEDON SUN DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW AND BETTER/STRONGER LOW LEVELCONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH STRENGTHENING INVERTED SFC TROF.

BAROCLINIC LOW WILL START DEVELOPING NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARDISLANDS MON NIGHT WITH FRESH NNE WINDS ESTABLISHING ACROSS THEAREA. LATEST GUIDANCE NOT SHOWING AS MUCH DRYING AS THEY WEREYESTERDAY WITH PW VALUES REMAINING NEAR NORMAL AND K INDICES ANDH85 THETAE VALUES STAYING HIGH IN THE 30S AND MID 330`S KELVINRESPECTIVELY. SO EXPECT THERE WILL BE LOTS OF NOCTURNAL SHALLOWCONVECTION ALONG THE NORTH COAST MUCH OF NEXT WEEK UNDER BROADTROUGH PATTERN. EXPECT ALSO COOLER TEMPERATURES UNDER TROUGHFINESSAND NORTHERLIES.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTOAREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLYDEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFULENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODEDROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN FRI ASBROAD TROUGH AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE ATLC. THIS WILL INDUCE THEDEVELOPMENT OF AN INDUCED SFC TROF AND AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW PRESSYSTEM NE OF PR MON.

&&

.DISCUSSION...EARLY MORNING SHOWERS WILL END SHORTLY AFTER SUNSETWITH A WARM DRY AFTERNOON EXPECTED UNDER STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.VERY LITTLE CONVECTION EXPECTED TONIGHT AS AIR MASS CONTINUES TODRY OUT. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT MOISTURE RECOVERY FRI BUT AREASTILL UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SO NOT ANTICIPATINGMUCH. THINGS THEN START TO CHANGE FRI NIGHT AS HEIGHTS BEGIN TO FALLIN RESPONSE TO SHORTWAVE TROUGH FCST TO EXIT THE SOUTHEAST U.S.THIS WILL PROMOTE MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND STEEPEN LAPSE RATES ANDALLOW FOR SHOWERS TO BECOME MORE NUMEROUS ESPECIALLY SAT. ASSHORTWAVE-TROUGH AMPLIFIES AND GETS CLOSER TO THE AREA SUN ANINVERTED SFC TROF WILL FORM AND HELP TRIGGER MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION.

UPPER TROF AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WILL START PULLING OUT TO THENORTHEAST MON DRAGGING A CDFNT THROUGH THE AREA MON NIGHT. SIGLOW-MID LEVEL DRYING WILL START TAKING PLACE MON WITH A SHARPDECREASE IN CONVECTION EXPECTED MON. FAIR WEATHER WILL THENESTABLISH ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION NEXT WEEK AS AREA BECOMES UNDERSTRONG UPPER CONVERGENT FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH RIGHT EXIT REGION OFJET STREAK. ALSO EXPECT A SIG COOL DOWN MON NIGHT THROUGH THE RESTOF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUEACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND AT ALL TAF SITES DURING THE NEXT 24HOURS. HOWEVER...BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AND LOCAL MOUNTAINOBSCURATIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PASSINGSHOWERS...MAINLY THROUGH 29/12Z AND THEN AGAIN BETWEEN 29/18Z AND29/23Z.

.SYNOPSIS...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO EXTENDACROSS THE LOCAL AREA FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...BEFORE HEIGHTSBEGIN TO FALL AGAIN BY THE END OF THE WEEK...AS A TROUGH BECOMESLOCATED JUST WEST THROUGH NORTHWEST OF THE FA DURING THE UPCOMINGWEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE COMBINATION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED MID TO UPPERLEVEL RIDGE AND A RELATIVELY DRY AND STABLE AIR MASS WILLCONTINUE TO RESULT IN A GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THEFA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. HOWEVER...THERE WILL STILL BE BANDSAND PATCHES OF MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA FROM TIME TOTIME...RESULTING IN INTERVALS OF CLOUDINESS AND A FEW PASSINGSHOWERS OVER PARTS OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL TAFSITES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. PASSING SHWRS EMBEDDED IN AEAST TO NORTHEAST TRADE WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THEFLYING AREA FM TIME TO TIME. VCSH CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS USVI TAFSITES AND TJSJ THROUGH 28/14Z. THE AVG 0-6 KM WINDS WILL REMAINMAINLY FM THE NE AT 10-20 KTS.

&&

.MARINE...EXPECT WINDS OF 18 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF 6 FEET ORLESS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. SMALLBOAT OPERATORS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTICOFF SHORE WATERS TODAY.

.SYNOPSIS...AN ELONGATED MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUETO EXTEND ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...BEFOREHEIGHTS BEGIN TO FALL AGAIN BY THE END OF THE WEEK...AS A TROUGHAPPROACHES THE FA FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE FORESEEN...AS THE COMBINATIONOF THE AFOREMENTIONED MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND AN OVERALLDRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MASS WILL RESULT IN A GENERALLY FAIRWEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE FA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THATSAID...STILL EXPECT OCCASIONAL PATCHES AND BANDS OF MOISTURE TOMOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA...RESULTING IN BRIEF INTERVALS OFCLOUDINESS AND PASSING SHOWERS OVER PARTS OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL TAFSITES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. PASSING SHRA WILL AFFECT THEFLYING AREA FM TIME TO TIME AND MAY BRIEFLY AFFECT THE USVITERMINALS AND POSSIBLY TJSJ UNTIL 27/14Z. LLVL WINDS WILL REMAINFM THE NE AT 10-20 KT.

&&

.MARINE...GENERALLY EXPECT WINDS OF 19 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF6 FEET OR LESS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH AT LEASTTHURSDAY...WITH NORTH SWELLS CONTINUING TO IMPACT THE LOCALATLANTIC WATERS AND THE CARIBBEAN PASSAGES THROUGH TODAY. SMALLBOAT OPERATORS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOCALCOASTAL WATERS TODAY.

.SYNOPSIS...AN ELONGATED MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL EXTENDACROSS THE LOCAL AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...BEFORE HEIGHTSBEGIN TO FALL AGAIN BY THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE UPCOMINGWEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE COMBINATION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED MID TO UPPERLEVEL RIDGE AND AN OVERALL INCREASINGLY DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS WILL RESULT IN A GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE FAFOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. HOWEVER...BANDS AND PATCHES OF MOISTUREWILL STILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA FROM TIME TO TIME...RESULTING IN INTERVALS OF CLOUDINESS AND PASSING SHOWERS OVERPARTS OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL TAFSITES FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PASSING -SHRA ACROSS THE FLYING AREAMAY BRIEFLY AFFECT THE USVI AND POSSIBLY TJSJ THIS MORNING. LLVLWINDS GENERALLY FROM THE NE 10-20 KTS.

&&

.MARINE...EXPECT WINDS OF 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF 6 FEET ORLESS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY...WITHNORTH SWELLS CONTINUING TO IMPACT THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS ANDTHE CARIBBEAN PASSAGES THROUGH TUESDAY. SMALL BOAT OPERATORSSHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS MOST OF THE LOCAL COASTAL WATERSTODAY.

.SYNOPSIS...AN ELONGATED MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILDACROSS THE LOCAL AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE COMBINATION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED MID TO UPPERLEVEL RIDGE AND AN OVERALL INCREASINGLY DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS WILL RESULT IN A GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE FAFOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THAT SAID...PATCHES AND BANDS OFMOISTURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA FROM TIME TO TIME...RESULTING IN INTERVALS OF PASSING CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS OVERPARTS OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION...VCSH EXPECTED OVER TIST...TISX..TJSJ AND TJBQ DURINGTHE MORNING HOURS. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS ALLTAF SITES THROUGH AT LEAST 25/16Z. BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFRCONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER TJPS AND TJMZ THIS AFTERNOON INSHRA. SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY NORTHEAST AT 10 TO 15KTS.

&&

.MARINE...GENERALLY EXPECT WINDS OF 21 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF6 FEET OR LESS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH AT LEASTTUESDAY...WITH NORTH NORTHWEST SWELLS CONTINUING TO IMPACT THELOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS AND THE CARIBBEAN PASSAGES. SMALL BOATOPERATORS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS MOST OF THE LOCAL COASTALWATERS TODAY.

.DISCUSSION...STRATUS DECK WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT NORTH OF THECORDILLERA UNDER A LIGHT NERLY BDRY FLOW WITH AREAS OF VERY LIGHTRAIN OR DRIZZLE. STRATUS WILL BEGIN TO MIX OUT AGAIN AFTER SUNRISEWITH A DRY MORNING. SCT SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOONUNDER AN EASTERLY STEERING FLOW. HEIGHTS WILL RISE QUICKLY SUNNIGHT UNDER BUILDING RIDGE. THIS WILL ERODE LOW LEVEL MOISTUREFROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST AND COULD RESULT IN SOME AREAS OF FOGIF SKIES CLEAR OUT AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BECOMES SHALLOWER.

TRANQUIL MON-TUE UNDER UPPER RIDGE. UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAKDOWN MID WEEK AS POLAR TROF INTENSIFIES ACROSS THE ATLC. HEIGHTSALOFT AND LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES BEGIN TO CRASH WED NIGHT LEADINGTO MUCH COOLER AIR FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. MOISTURE INCREASESFOR NEXT WEEKEND AND WINDS INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO BUILDING HIGHPRES TO THE NORTHWEST. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN AN INCREASE INSHALLOW CONVECTION FRI-SUN.

&&

.AVIATION...BKN TO OVC SKIES EXPECTED ACROSS THE PR TERMINALS WITHCIGS MAINLY BETWEEN 4-7K FT TIL 25/12Z. WINDS WILL BE FROM LIGHT ANDVRB TO EAST NORTHEASTERLY AT 10 KTS OR LESS. AFTER24/16Z...SHRA DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED ACROSS SW PR...POSSIBLYCAUSING BRIEF PERIODS OF VCSH FOR TJPS AND TJMZ.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS MAINLY 4-6 FT IN NORTH SWELLS. WINDS ALSO INCREASEUP TO 20 KT MON-TUE AS HIGH PRES BUILDS TO THE NORTH. SMALL CRAFTEXERCISE CAUTION STATEMENTS WILL BE REQUIRED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.DID CANCEL SCA AS REGIONAL BUOYS AND SWELL DECAY NOMOGRAMS SUGGESTSEAS ONLY REACHING 6 FT. LATEST WNA GUIDANCE ALSO SUGGESTS SEAS UPTO 6 FT.

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THECARIBBEAN THROUGH NEXT WEEK. WEAK TROUGHS WILL PASS THROUGH AJETSTREAM WELL NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA MONDAY NIGHT...THURSDAY ANDTHE FOLLOWING SUNDAY NIGHT.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS WEST SOUTHWEST OUT OF THETROPICAL ATLANTIC ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS BUT WILL SHIFT TOTHE GREATER ANTILLES AND NORTHERN CARIBBEAN BY MONDAY TO FOCUS ONTHE WESTERN CARIBBEAN BY MID WEEK WHERE IT WILL REMAIN THROUGH THEEND OF THE WEEK.

AT LOWER LEVELS...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS JUST SOUTHEAST OF THEFORECAST AREA AND WILL RETURN IN A MUCH WEAKER CONDITION ON SUNDAYAND MONDAY. NORTH NORTHEAST WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN AND BECOME EASTNORTHEAST BY MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE WESTERNATLANTIC EARLY NEXT WEEK AND THEN MOVE INTO THE NORTHERNATLANTIC...MAINTAINING MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WIND FLOW OVER THE AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...ONLY VERY LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER WESTCENTRAL PUERTO RICO WITH A FEW SHOWERS SOUTH OF SAINT CROIXASSOCIATED WITH A DISSIPATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY NOW BEGINNING TORETURN TO THE AREA. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE MOSTLY STIFLED BY THEENTRANCE OF DRIER AIR AT MID LEVELS...BUT AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARYRETURNS SOME SHOWERS MAY BE ABLE TO MOVE ONSHORE IN NORTHEAST FLOWINTO PUERTO RICO OVERNIGHT. ALSO A CHANCE SHOWER MAY CROSS SAINTCROIX. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY AREA-WIDE WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.THIS AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES PEAK NEAR 1.8 INCHES LATE IN THEWEEKEND AND THEN PLUMMET BELOW 1.5 INCHES MONDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGHTHERE WILL BE SOME RECOVERY...SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILLREMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

.SYNOPSIS...FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTH OF THE AREA...WILL REMAINSTATIONARY THROUGH MONDAY WHILE DISSIPATING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSUREWILL BUILD ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LATEST IR SATELITE IMAGE SHOWS A FRONTAL BOUNDARYNORTH OF THE AREA...AND BECOMING DIFFUSE WITH TIME. ONLY LIGHTSHOWERS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED OVER LAND AREAS OVERNIGHT...ASSOCIATEDWITH THE PROXIMITY OF THIS SYSTEM. LOCAL AREA WILL REMAIN UNDERTHE INFLUENCE OF THIS FRONT THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY MORNING. WINDSARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT NORTHEASTERLY BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AS HIGHPRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. THIS NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW PROMISETO BRING SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE NORTHERN COAST OF PUERTORICO AND THE NORTHERN U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS IN THE MORNING HOURS ANDAT NIGHTS.

AS HIGH PRESSURE TAKES TOTAL CONTROL OF THE WEATHER LOCALLY...DRIERAIR MASS WILL ENCOMPASS THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. LATEST24/00Z GFS COMPUTER MODEL FORECAST THETA-E VALUES AT 700MB WILLDROP AS LOW AS 320K BY THURSDAY...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATERS VALUESAROUND 1.4 INCHES. SOMETHING TO POINT OUT...THE GFS HAS BEENFORECASTING DRIER CONDITIONS LAST FEW DAYS FOR THE LOCALAREA...WHICH HAS NOT BEEN THE CASE. THEREFORE...ALTHOUGH MODELINDICATED A SIGNIFICANT DRYING TREND BY NEXT WEEK...KEPT SOMESHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST..MAINLY FOR NEXTFRIDAY...AS AN AREA OF MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER THE REGIONFROM THE EAST. IN GENERAL...LOOKS LIKE WE FINALLY WILL SEE ANORMAL PATTERN...WITH PLEASANT TEMPERATURES AS THE NORTHEAST WINDFLOW ESTABLISH ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...XPCT TAF SITES TO BE DRY THIS MORNING WITH VCSH ATTJSJ/TIST AND CIG NR FL060-080 OVR USVI AND NORTH OF PR...GRDL DSPTG.SHRA/TSRA TO BEGIN AGAIN OVER INTERIOR PR ABOUT NOON AND TO DRIFTTOWARDS ALL COASTS...AIDED A BIT BY UPPER JET LATE AFT. ISOLD SHRAELSEWHERE. LLVL WIND BLO FL150 TO REMAIN VRBL 5-15 KT THRU SUN.

&&

.MARINE...A MODERATE NORTH NORTHWEST SWELL IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE ASLIGHT BOOST IN WAVE HEIGHTS ALONG MOST NORTH FACING COASTS...ANDSOME WEST FACING SHORES OF PUERTO RICO AND NORTHERN USVI. SWELLHEIGHTS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 5 TO 7 FEET DURING THE NEXT SEVERALDAYS.

.SYNOPSIS...BROAD TROF PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH SATWITH FLAT RIDGE EXPECTED TO BUILD SUN NIGHT. FRONT STRETCHING NETO SW INTO THE NRN DOM REP WILL BECOME STATIONARY NW OF AGUADILLASAT THEN DISSIPATE MON.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LIGHT NRLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN A STRATUS DECK NORTHOF THE CORDILLERA WITH AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT.STRATUS WILL BEGIN TO MIX OUT LATE IN THE MORNING WITH CONVECTIONFIRING AGAIN OVR THE CORDILLERA. STEERING FLOW WILL BE VERY WEAKWITH A SLIGHT NORTHWARD DRIFT EXPECTED. THIS PATTERN WILL REPEATITSELF AGAIN SAT NIGHT AND SUN. HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE QUICKLY SUNNIGHT WITH FRONT FCST TO DISSIPATE. H85 DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS AREFCST TO BECOME QUITE LARGE SUN NIGHT AND MON AND DOUBT THAT ANYCONVECTION WILL DEVELOP. HIGH PRES BUILDING TO THE NORTH WILLTIGHTEN THE PRES GRADIENT MON-TUE WHICH SHOULD ALSO INHIBIT SEABREEZE CYCLE.

REST OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE DOMINATED BY STRONG HIGH PRES TO THENORTH WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS AND DEEP LAYER OF DRY AIR. TURNINGCOOLER NEXT THU AS HEIGHTS ALOFT AND LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES DROPAS RIDGE GETS SHUNTED SWD AND POLAR TROF PATTERN DEEPENS ACROSSTHE ATLC INTO THE NRN CARIBBEAN. WILL LIKELY SEE A RETURN OF EARLYMORNING SHALLOW CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHEAST PR TYPICAL OF WINTERAND PLEASANT AFTERNOONS.

&&

.AVIATION...BKN TO OVC SKIES EXPECTED ACROSS THE PR TERMINALS ASWELL AS TIST WITH LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. CIGS EXPECTED TO BEMAINLY BETWEEN 4-7K FT WITH OCNL PERIODS OF AROUND 3K FT. WINDS WILLBE FROM LIGHT AND VRB TO NORTHERLY AT 10 KTS OR LESS ACROSS PR ANDUSVI. TNCM AND TKPK CAN EXPECT WINDS FROM THE WEST LATETONIGHT...SHIFTING TO THE EAST NORTHEAST EARLY TOMORROW MORNING.AFTER 24/16Z...SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED ACROSS THE INTERIOR OFPR...DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN STEERING WINDS...VCTS WAS LEFT OUT OFTAF.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS 4-6 FT IN NORTH SWELLS. WILL CHECK BUOYS AGAIN TOSEE IF SMALL CRAFT ADVZY IS NEEDED.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTOAREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLYDEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFULENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODEDROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

.SYNOPSIS...UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDSTHROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS VERYCLOSE TO THE LOCAL AREA. LESS ACTIVE WEATHER WILL SLOWLY RETURNEARLY NEXT WEEK AS A HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN VERY CLOSE OR OVERTHE ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLYWEAKEN THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY...BUT IN THE MEAN TIME...WILL KEEPLIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE AREA...ALLOWING LAND AND SEA BREEZES TODEVELOP. THEREFORE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS IN THE ISLAND VICINITYWILL BE MOIST AND UNSTABLE...WHICH IS FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENTOF THUNDERSTORM AS WELL AS LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. SINCE IT ISHARD TO PIN POINT EXACTLY WHERE AND WHEN THE ACTIVE WEATHER MAYIMPACT...HAVE PRETTY MUCH GENERALIZED THE COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATIONWITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORM FOR MOST OF THE ISLANDS...ESPECIALLYOVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. 12Z GEFS MODEL INDICATES THAT THE BULK OFMOISTURE WILL REMAIN NORTHWEST OF PUERTO RICO THROUGH SUNDAY. THEISLANDS CAN EXPECT MUCH LESS ACTIVE WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK AS AHIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS NORTH OF THE ISLANDS...BRINGING A TYPICALTRADE WIND PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION...GENERALLY VFR EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE TAFSITES...EXCEPT MVFR POSSIBLE NEAR TJSJ IN SCT SHRA/TSRAUNTIL 23/22Z. LLVL WINDS WILL CONTINUE FM THE SW AT 5-15 KTTHROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...MODERATE NORTH NORTHWEST SWELL IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE ASLIGHT BOOST IN WAVE HEIGHTS ALONG MOST NORTH FACING COASTS...ANDSOME WEST FACING SHORES OF THE PUERTO RICO AND NORTHERN USVISTARTING TONIGHT. THIS SWELL WILL LIKELY PEAK SATURDAY AFTERNOONWITH A SECONDARY PEAK ON MONDAY. SWELL HEIGHTS WILL RANGE BETWEEN5 TO 7 FEET DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

.SYNOPSIS...DEEP LAYER LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTICWILL MAINTAIN A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. AFRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE NEARSHOREATLANTIC WATERS DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENTIN THE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY CONTINUINGTHROUGHOUT THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SATELITE AND RADAR IMAGES DEPICTED A LINE OFSHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE COASTAL WATERSNORTHWEST OF THE AREA...AND ANOTHER LINE OF SHOWERS EXTENDING FROMTHE CARIBBEAN WATERS...NORTHEAST ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS. VERYLITTLE SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS BEEN OBSERVED OVER LAND OVERNIGHT THROUGHTHIS MORNING. LATEST 23/00Z TJSJ SOUNDING SHOWED PRECIPITABLE WATERVALUES OF 1.87 INCHES...WITH DRY CONDITIONS AT MID AND UPPER LEVELOF THE ATMOSPHERE. GFS COMPUTER MODEL HAS BEEN RUNNING DRIER...WITHPW VALUES AROUND 1.5 INCHES FOR TODAY. HOWEVER...A FRONTALBOUNDARY LOCATED THIS MORNING ACROSS HISPANIOLA...IS EXPECTED TOSLOWLY APPROACH THE NORTHWEST COAST OF PUERTO RICO DURING THEWEEKEND. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN STATIONARY OVER THEATLANTIC WATERS NORTH OF THE AREA. THE PROXIMITY OF THISSYSTEM...HOWEVER...WILL KEEP THE REGION UNDER A MOIST SOUTH TOSOUTHWEST WIND FLOW AT THE SURFACE AT LEAST THROUGH SATURDAY. THECHANCES FOR RAINFALL WILL BE MAINLY OVER THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL OFPUERTO RICO...WITH THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL OCCURRING IN THE AFTERNOONHOURS.

FOR SUNDAY...A DRIER AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY ENCOMPASS THEREGION...BECOMING EVEN DRIER BY MID WEEK...AS A SURFACE HIGHPRESSURE TAKES TOTAL CONTROL OF THE WEATHER PATTERN. INGENERAL...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EVENTS ARE FORECAST TO AFFECT THEREGION IN THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION...GENERALLY VFR XPTD BUT MVFR IN ISOLD/SCT SHRA/TSRA. MOSTCONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON TO BE OVR NE PR IN VERY WEAK SOUTHWESTFLOW ALOFT THEN SUNDAY AFTERNOON IT WILL BE MORE INTERIOR PR. LLVLWINDS SW 5-15 KT TODAY THEN VRBL ON SUNDAY.

.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERNATLANTIC NEXT FEW DAYS. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE REGIONSATURDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTICMONDAY BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...NO CHANGES IN THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR TODAY...AS THEAREA CONTINUES UNDER A PERSISTENT ELONGATED AREA OF MOISTUREEXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEAST OVERPUERTO RICO...AND EXTENDING SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES ACROSS THEATLANTIC NORTHEAST OF THE AREA. LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELITE IMAGESINDICATED THIS FEATURE IS STARTING TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTH...BUTMOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TODAY...WHICH WILL PRODUCE ANOTHERACTIVE AFTERNOON OVER THE INTERIOR AND NORTH SECTIONS OF PUERTORICO. BY FRIDAY...COMPUTER MODELS INDICATED DRIER AIR AT MID LEVELOF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL ENCOMPASS THE REGION. THETA-E VALUES AT700MB ARE EXPECTED TO DROP FROM 340K TODAY...TO NEAR 325 BY FRIDAYAFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WEAK SURFACE WINDS...AND FAVORABLE UPPERLEVEL ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS WILL CONTRIBUTE IN THE DEVELOPMENT OFSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BUT WITH LESS COVERAGE.

A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND STRENGTHEN OVERTHE WESTERN ATLANTIC NORTH OF PUERTO RICO THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND.THIS LOW PRESSURE WILL BE ACCOMPANY BY A FRONTAL ZONE...WHICH WILLAPPROACH THE LOCAL AREA SATURDAY. THE PROXIMITY OF THISFEATURE...WILL MAINTAIN UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THEAREA THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY...WHEN A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ISFORECAST TO BUILD BEHIND THE FRONT. ALSO...SURFACE WINDS AREEXPECTED TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY BEGINNING ON MONDAY...AS THEAFOREMENTIONED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TAKES TOTAL CONTROL OF OURWEATHER LOCALLY. DUE TO ALREADY SATURATED SOILS ACROSS THEINTERIOR...CENTRAL AND NORTH SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...SOMEFLOODING IS POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN TODAY...AS SHOWERS ANDTHUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. PEOPLE LIVING ACROSS THESEAREAS...SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE LATEST WEATHER INFORMATION ANDBE READY IF FLOODING IS OBSERVED OR IF A FLASH FLOOD WARNING ISISSUED IN YOUR AREA. HAPPY THANKSGIVING DAY TO ALL RESIDENTS ANDVISITORS IN PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION...OCNL MVFR CONDS CONT THRU MORNING FOR STT/STX INREGENERATING SHRA. XPCT PR AND NCM/KPK TAF SITES TO BE VFR AND CLROF SHRA TIL LATE MORNING OR AFTERNOON. VRY WEAK SOUTH FLOW IMPLIESMOST SHRA/TSRA TO BE ON NORTH SIDE OF PR AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON.LLVL WIND TO FL150 S TO SW 5-15 KT THRU TODAY.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTOAREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLYDEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFULENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODEDROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

* AT 445 PM AST...DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR INDICATED THAT SHOWERS ANDISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...SOME WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN...CONTINUED TOAFFECT THESE MUNICIPALITIES. RADAR ESTIMATES INDICATE THAT ALMOSTTWO INCHES OF RAIN HAS ALREADY FALLEN...ON THESE SATURATEDSOILS...OVER PARTS OF THE ADVISORY AREA...WITH CONTINUED RAINFALL.ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF AT LEAST ONE INCH IS EXPECTED THROUGH ATLEAST 645 PM AST.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTOAREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLYDEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFULENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODEDROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO CAGUAS...CAYEY...GUAYAMA...GURABO...JUNCOS...PATIL LAS AND SAN LORENZO

* UNTIL 700 PM AST

* AT 350 PM AST...DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR INDICATED THAT SHOWERS ANDISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...SOME WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN...CONTINUED TOAFFECT THESE MUNICIPALITIES. RADAR ESTIMATES INDICATE THAT ALMOSTONE INCH OF RAIN HAS ALREADY FALLEN...ON THESE SATURATEDSOILS...OVER PARTS OF THE ADVISORY AREA...WITH CONTINUED RAINFALL.ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF AT LEAST ONE INCH IS EXPECTED THROUGH ATLEAST 700 PM AST AND FOR THOSE REASONS THE FLOOD ADVISORY HASEXTENDED.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTOAREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLYDEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFULENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODEDROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

.SYNOPSIS...LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL MOVENORTHEAST NEXT FEW DAYS. A WEAK SURFACE WIND FLOW WILL PREVAILACROSS THE REGION. MOISTURE AND GENERALLY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERICCONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LATEST SATELITE IMAGES CONTINUES TO INDICATED ACONVERGENCE ZONE PREVAILING OVER PUERTO RICO OVERNIGHT AND EARLYTHIS MORNING. THIS FEATURE IS MAINTAINING AN UNSETTLED WEATHERPATTERN ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WEATHER PATTERN IS NOT EXPECTED TOCHANGE ANYTIME SOON. IN FACT...CONDITIONS LOOKS WETTER FOR THEBEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK...AS THE COMBINATION OF HIGH MOISTURECONTENT...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF MORE THAN 2.0INCHES...THETA-E VALUES AT 700MB BETWEEN 330-335K AND GOODVENTILATION ALOFT AND A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW BETWEEN 0-3KMPREVAILS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT MONDAY. ALL THESEFACTORS PROMISE TO MAINTAIN GOOD CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WITHTHUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ALONG THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL OF PUERTO RICOEACH AFTERNOON...AND GOOD EPISODES OF SHOWERS MOVING FROM TIME TOTIME OVER THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. SOILS ARE SATURATED AND RIVERSALONG THE CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL PUERTO RICO ARE RUNNING ATHIGH LEVELS DUE TO PREVIOUS HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THESE SECTIONS OFPUERTO RICO. FOR THANKSGIVING DAY...ANOTHER ACTIVE AFTERNOON CANBE EXPECTED...WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH ISOLATEDSTRONG THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING MAINLY THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL...ANDTHE NORTH SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. A SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT IN THEWEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED UNTIL AT LEAST NEXTWEDNESDAY...WHEN A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILDACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTOAREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLYDEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFULENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODEDROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTOAREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLYDEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFULENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODEDROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE WESTERNATLANTIC FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...KEEPING THE PRESSURE GRADIENTRELAXED AND WINDS FAIRLY LIGHT. UPPER JET EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVERTHE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A LINE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTEDTHE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AS WELL AS VIEQUES AND CULEBRA IN THEOVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS LINE OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUEMOVING SLOWLY TO THE WEST AND AFFECT THE EASTERN PORTIONS OFPUERTO RICO IN THE MORNING HOURS. FOR THIS AFTERNOON...CONVECTIONIS EXPECTED AND DEVELOPING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THEINTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AS WELL AS THE SAN JUANMETROPOLITAN AREA ARE LIKELY. SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE...ABUNDANTMOISTURE...STRONG UPPER LEVEL WINDS AND ENOUGH INSTABILITY WILLPLAY A ROLE IN THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TODAY. URBANAND SMALL STREAM FLOODING AS WELL AS RIVER FLOODING IS POSSIBLEUNDER THE EXPECTED WEATHER CONDITIONS.

FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...ABUNDANT MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TOREMAIN OVER THE AREA AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE LOCALAREA FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK BUT DOES NOT QUITE PUSHTHROUGH THE LOCAL ISLANDS. THEREFORE THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY ISEXPECTED TO STAY TO OUR NORTHWEST...BRINGING CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERACTIVITY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...A WIDE BAND OF MOISTURE WITH SOUTH SOUTHEAST FLOW HASSCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHRA AND ISOL TSRA WITH MVFR/IFR CONDS FROMTHE EASTERN TIP OF PUERTO RICO TO JUST WEST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.THIS AREA WILL MOVE OVER PUERTO RICO AFT 20/15Z WITH MTNOBSCURATIONS AND POSSIBLE MVFR/IFR AT TJSJ AND INTERIOR PORTIONS OFPUERTO RICO. SHRA WILL CONT THRU 21/02Z IN THE USVI AND PR. LLVLWINDS ARE LIGHT SOUTHERLY.

&&

.MARINE...LOCAL BUOYS IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS ARE REPORTING SEASFROM 3 TO 5 FEET. THEREFORE THE FORECAST REFLECTS SEAS OF UP TO 5FEET. WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY AT 14KNOTS OR LESS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF WINDS NEAR SHOWERS ANDTHUNDERSTORMS.

SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK UNTIL ASWELL STARTS INVADING THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS ON SATURDAY.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTOAREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLYDEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFULENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODEDROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

* AT 347 PM AST...DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR INDICATED SHOWERS ANDISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...SOME WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN AFFECTING THESEMUNICIPALITIES. RADAR ESTIMATES AND SPOTTER REPORTS INDICATE THAT 1TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN HAVE ALREADY FALLEN OVER PARTS OF THE ADVISORYAREA AND IT CONTINUED TO RAIN. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF AT LEAST 1INCH IS EXPECTED THROUGH 645 PM AST.

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE ELEVATED LEVELS ANDPOSSIBLY FLOODING ON SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS...AND PONDING OF WATERIN URBAN AREAS...HIGHWAYS...STREETS AND UNDERPASSES AS WELL AS OTHERPOOR DRAINAGE AREAS AND LOW LYING SPOTS. THE HEAVY RAINS COULD ALSOTRIGGER ROCK AND MUDSLIDES IN STEEP TERRAIN.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTOAREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLYDEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFULENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODEDROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKENTODAY AND MOISTURE WILL SLIGHTLY INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY. THISWILL ALLOW FOR SOME SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THISAFTERNOON ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN PUERTO RICO. FORTOMORROW AND FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TODEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...RELAXING THE PRESSUREGRADIENT AND BRINGING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE AREA BY MID WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED IN THE BIG PICTURE. THE UPPERLEVEL RIDGE IS STILL FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THROUGH THE DAYAND TO COMPLETELY FLATTEN OUT OVER THE LOCAL AREA TOMORROW. THEREIS ALSO A SURFACE LOW THAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THEWESTERN ATLANTIC...THIS LOW WILL STRENGTHEN IN THE NEXT FEW DAYSBEFORE MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST...CAUSING WINDS TO BECOME LIGHTEROVER THE AREA AS WELL AS BRINGING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY CLOSE TO THELOCAL AREA FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.

FOR TODAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TODAYACROSS MOST OF THE LOCAL AREA...BUT ESPECIALLY ACROSS THEINTERIOR...WESTERN...AND NORTH CENTRAL SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICOTHIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF THE WEAKENINGRIDGE ALOFT...EXPECTED MOISTURE ADVECTION DURING TIME OF MAXHEATING...WIND FLOW...AND THE LOCAL OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS. THE RESTOF THE AREA...SUCH AS THE LOCAL WATERS AND THE U.S. VIRGINISLANDS...MAY OBSERVE SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS EMBEDDED INTHE TRADES.

TUESDAY SEEMS TO BE SIMILAR TO TODAY...IN WHICH LOCAL EFFECTS ANDDIURNAL HEATING AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL COMBINE FOR THEDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PUERTO RICO...ONLYISOLATED SHOWERS EXPECTED FOR THE WATERS AND THE U.S. VIRGINISLANDS.

AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES FOR MID AND THE LATTER PART OFTHE WEEK...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSSA LARGE PORTION OF THE LOCAL AREA UNTIL THE END OF THE WEEK. LONGRANGE MODELS KEEP THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE NORTHWEST OF THELOCAL AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...THEREFORE THE CLOUDINESSAND SHOWERS JUST AHEAD OF IT IS FORECAST TO BE RIGHT OVER THELOCAL AREA UNTIL EITHER THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES THROUGH ORWEAKENS BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. NEVERTHELESS...GUIDANCESUGGESTS THAT THE THANKSGIVING WEEKEND WILL LIKELY BE MOSTLYCLOUDY AND SHOWERY.

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION EARLY TODAY...ASSEAS MAY BE UP TO 6 FEET ACROSS THE OFFSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS.HOWEVER...SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TODAY AND FOR THE NEXTSEVERAL DAYS. WINDS WILL BE UP TO 19 KNOTS TODAY...WIND SPEEDS AREALSO EXPECTED TO DECREASE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE ELEVATED LEVELS ONSMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS...AND PONDING OF WATER IN URBAN AREAS...HIGHWAYS...STREETS AND UNDERPASSES AS WELL AS OTHER POOR DRAINAGEAREAS AND LOW LYING SPOTS. THE HEAVY RAINS COULD ALSO TRIGGER ROCKAND MUDSLIDES IN STEEP TERRAIN.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLEINTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS AREUSUALLY DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER ISPOWERFUL ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERINGFLOODED ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRALATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE LOCAL REGION FOR THE NEXTFEW DAYS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTCARIBBEAN THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE FLATTENING OUT. LOW PRESSURE WILLDEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...OVERNIGHT PASSING SHOWERS CONTINUED AFFECTING THELOCAL WATERS AS WELL AS SOME ARES IN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS ANDEASTERN AND SOUTHERN PUERTO RICO. A FEW OF THE RAIN SHOWERS WEREMODERATE BUT MOST OF THEM WERE LIGHT AS THEY PASSED BY.

THE CURRENT WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO BRING OVERNIGHT ANDEARLY MORNING SHOWERS THEN TURNING MOSTLY SUNNY LATE IN THEMORNING. FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS...GIVEN THE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOWAND THE EXPECTED INCREASE IN MOISTURE DURING THAT TIME...COMBINEDWITH DIURNAL HEATING AND LOCAL EFFECTS...ONCE AGAIN WE EXPECTSCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSSPUERTO RICO...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF THEISLAND. THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WITHISOLATED TO SCATTERED PASSING SHOWERS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF ANEARBY THUNDERSTORM.

BEGINNING LATE MONDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TOWEAKEN...AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERNATLANTIC. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX BY MID NEXT WEEK...WHICHWILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT DECREASE IN WIND SPEED. AS THIS SURFACELOW PRESSURE MOVES TO OUR NORTH...IT WILL DRAG A SHEARLINE TO THETO THE LOCAL AREA FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. THESE FACTORS WILLLIKELY BRING AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE OVER THE AREA STARTING ON WEDNESDAYAND LASTING THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY.

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS MOST OF THELOCAL WATERS DUE TO SEAS OF UP TO 6 FEET. BUOY 41043 TO THE NORTHOF OUR WATERS IS REPORTING SEAS OF ALMOST 7 FEET WHILE THE SANJUAN BUOY HAS BEEN REPORTING SEAS OF ABOUT 5 FEET...THEREFORE SEASOF 5 TO 6 FEET ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN WATERS WERE KEPT INTHE FORECAST AS THE EAST NORTHEAST SWELL CONTINUES TO AFFECT THELOCAL WATERS TODAY. WIND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT 16 KNOTS OR LESSFROM THE EAST TO EAST SOUTHEAST.

.SYNOPSIS...AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE EXTENDS NORTHEASTOVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...A STRONG TROUGHEXTENDS INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. THE RIDGE FLATTENS OUT MONDAYAND TUESDAY AS THE TROUGH WEAKENS AND PASSES THROUGH. THE RIDGERECOVERS VERY LITTLE ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE NEXT LONG WAVE TROUGHPASSES TO THE NORTH HOLDING FLOW MAINLY ZONAL OR SLIGHTLYSOUTHWEST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

AT LOWER LEVELS...LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN ANDHIGH PRESSURE IN THE EAST CENTRAL ATLANTIC COMBINE TO KEEPMODERATE TRADE WINDS OVER THE AREA. A LOW THAT DEEPENS NORTHNORTHEAST OF THE AREA MOVES NORTHWEST AND FORMS A STRONG AND LARGELOW PRESSURE BY FRIDAY THAT WEAKENS FLOW ACROSS THE AREA AND DROPSA SHEAR LINE NEAR TO OR ACROSS THE AREA. MOISTURE GENERALLYREMAINS HIGH DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...NUMEROUS SHOWERS ARE SCATTERED ACROSS ALL BUT THESHADOW OF PUERTO RICO IN EAST SOUTHEAST FLOW. SOME OF THESE HAVELEFT NEARLY ONE HALF INCH ACROSS EASTERN PUERTO RICO AND AS MUCHAS FOUR HUNDREDTHS IN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. MODELS ARE NOT INPERFECT AGREEMENT ABOUT WIND DIRECTION TODAY...WITH THE NAMRUNNING A LITTLE MORE EAST NORTHEAST...BUT GENERAL FLOW IS EAST OREAST SOUTHEAST. MOISTURE HOWEVER PROMISES GOOD SHOWER COVERAGEDURING THE DAY TODAY AND WILL KEEP POPS BETWEEN 40 AND 70 PERCENTWITH THE HIGHEST IN NORTHWEST PUERTO RICO AND POSSIBLY WEST OF SAN JUAN.MOISTURE GENERALLY REMAINS HIGH DURING THE WEEK WITH A FEW DRYSLOTS. A FRONT MOVES CLOSE TO THE AREA BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK.SUCCESSIVE MODEL RUNS HAVE DEPICTED IT AS REACHING VERY CLOSE TOTHE AREA OR PASSING PUERTO RICO...BUT THE DRIER AIR BEHIND IT DOESNOT MAKE IT TO THE FORECAST AREA AND THE FRONT/SHEARLINE STALLSAROUND FRIDAY. THIS MEANS THAT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERSSHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK INCLUDING THANKSGIVING AND THEFRIDAY AFTER. CURRENTLY MODELS ARE SUGGESTING MORE MOISTURE FORTHE THANKSGIVING WEEKEND...AND WITH CLIMATOLOGY FAVORING THISSOLUTION...HAVE KEPT POPS MAINLY SCATTERED THROUGHOUT.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECASTPERIOD...WITH AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO AT TJSJ...TIST/TISX ANDTNCM/TKPK DURING THE MORNING HOURS. AFT 17/17Z...CONVECTION ISEXPECTED MAINLY ACROSS THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERNPORTIONS OF PR...RESULTING IN BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AT TJMZ...ANDEVEN POSSIBLE IFR CONDITIONS AT TJBQ THROUGH ABOUT 17/21Z.HOWEVER...TJSJ AND TJPS MAY STILL OBSERVE VCTS. WINDS WILLCONTINUE MAINLY FROM THE EAST AT 10 KTS WITH SEA BREEZEVARIATIONS.

&&

.MARINE...NEARLY WEST SWELL OF 9 TO 10 SECONDS CONTINUES ABOVE 2METERS 6 FEET THROUGH MONDAY...BUT WILL EVENTUALLY RELAX TO 4 TO5 FEET AT BUOY 41043. THIS WILL TRANSLATE INTO SEAS OF 4 TO 6 FEETFOR MUCH OF THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THEREFOREEXERCISE CAUTION WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE HEADLINE FOR AT LEASTSEVERAL MORE DAYS.

.SYNOPSIS...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE AS THE MAINWEATHER FEATURE ACROSS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND INTO THEUPCOMING WEEKEND. A LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE CENTRALATLANTIC BY MONDAY WILL DRAG A SHEARLINE INTO THE AREA MID NEXTWEEK WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY/SHEAR LINE MOVING CLOSE TO THE REGIONBY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LIMITED MOISTURE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCALISLANDS TODAY AS A RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS CONTINUES ACROSS THEREGION AND A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PERSISTS THROUGH THEUPCOMING WEEKEND. LATEST RADAR IMAGES DEPICTED ONLY ISOLATED TOSCATTERED PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT WITH FEW OFTHEM AFFECTING THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO INCLUDING THESAN JUAN METRO AREA. LIMITED CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ACTIVITY WASDETECTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. LATESTGFS MODEL GUIDANCE AS WELL AS THE BLENDED TPW PRODUCE SUGGESTSPWAT VALUES WILL REMAIN NEAR 1.50 INCHES TODAY INCREASING SLIGHTLYSATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE PREVAILING LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW WILL BEMORE FROM THE EAST...WITH AFTERNOON CONVECTION EXPECTED TOFORM...MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO.THERE IS STILL POTENTIAL FOR SOME ISOLATED AREAS OF LOCALLYMODERATE TO HEAVY DOWNPOURS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.A SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTICBY MONDAY WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY/SHEAR LINE MOVING CLOSE TO THEREGION BY MID WEEK. THIS FEATURE WILL INDUCE AN INCREASE INCLOUDINESS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FA.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THEFORECAST PERIOD...WITH AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO POSSIBLE MORNINGHOURS. AFT 16/17Z...SHALLOW CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THEWESTERN INTERIOR...SOUTHERN...AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF PR RESULTINGIN BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AT TJMZ THROUGH ABOUT 16/21Z. SFC TO 2KFT WINDS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY FROM THE EAST AT 10 TO 15 KTS WITHSEA BREEZE VARIATIONS.

.UPDATE...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER PUERTORICO AND THE USVI TONIGHT. DOPPLER RADAR HAS SHOWN PASSING LIGHTSHOWERS EMBEDDED ON THE TRADES...MAINLY AFFECTING THE LOCAL WATERS.A FEW OF THESE SHOWERS AFFECTED THE NORTHEAST COAST OF PUERTORICO...BUT LITTLE OR NO MEASURABLE RAINFALL WAS OBSERVED.SATELLITE DERIVED PWAT ANALYSIS SHOWED AN AREA OF DRIER AREAAPPROACHING THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE EAST. THIS WILL RESULT INLIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS. HOWEVER...SOMESHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOONACROSS THE WESTERN INTERIOR AND SOUTHWEST SECTIONS OF PR BETWEEN16/17-21Z. ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE DONE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECASTPACKAGE.

MARINE UPDATE...BUOYS 41044 ABOUT 500 NM NORTHEAST OF PR MEASUREDA NORTHEAST SWELL OF 8-10 FEET AT 11 SECONDS. USING THE SWELL DECAYCALCULATOR...SEAS OF 6-7 FEET WILL REACH THE OFFSHORE ATLANTICWATERS LATER TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. AS A RESULT...A SMALL CRAFTADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE AMZ710 UNTIL FRIDAY EVENING.

.SYNOPSIS...MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL HOLD THROUGH THE WEEKENDTHEN BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN ON MON AS DEEP TROF OVER ERN NOAM BECOMESESTABLISHED ACROSS THE WEST CNTRL ATLC. SFC LOW PRES FCST TODEVELOP NEAR BERMUDA MONDAY WILL DRAG A SHEARLINE INTO THE AREAMID NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MAINLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TOPERSIST THROUGH SUN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN ON MON AS A SHORTWAVE-TROUGH CURRENTLYLOCATED OVER THE WRN GREAT LKS SPLITS AND MOVES INTO THE ATLC. ASTHIS OCCURS...MODELS INDICATE A SFC LOW PRES DEVELOPING NEARBERMUDA MOVING IT SLOWLY EWD. THIS LOW WILL DRAG A SHEARLINE INTOTHE FCST AREA TUE NIGHT KEEPING NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE AREATHROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. THE SHEARLINE WILL RESULT IN PERIODSOF UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH POTENTIAL FOR SIG RAINS MOST OF NEXTWEEK. NOTE THAT MODELS INDICATE ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVINGACROSS THE WRN ATLC MID NEXT WEEK WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENTLIKELY AT THE SFC. IN SUMMARY...VERY WET CONDITIONS APPEAR INSTORE FOR NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS ALL TAF SITESTHROUGH AT LEAST 16/12Z. BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS AREPOSSIBLE OVER TJMZ THROUGH 15/22Z. WINDS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY EASTAT 10 TO 15 KTS.

&&

.MARINE...A NEW PULSE OF NORTHEAST SWELLS IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVETONIGHT. SCA`S MAY GO INTO EFFECT AGAIN FOR THE ATLC WATERS

.SYNOPSIS...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSSTHE REGION TODAY AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. A RELATIVELY DRIERAIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO ENCOMPASS THE LOCAL ISLANDS TODAY ANDFRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE MOISTURE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS WILL CONTINUE TODIMINISH TODAY AS A RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS MOVES ACROSS THE REGIONFROM THE EAST. AS THE SAME TIME A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ISEXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION TODAY THROUGH THE UPCOMINGWEEKEND. LATEST RADAR IMAGES DEPICTED AN AREA OF SHOWERS ANDTHUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST COASTAL WATERS OF PUERTORICO...BUT LIMITED CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ACTIVITY WAS DETECTEDACROSS THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES...CULEBRA ANDTHE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THIS MORNING. EXPECT AMORE STABLE PATTERN TO GRADUALLY EVOLVE ALOFT THROUGH OUT THE DAYAND THROUGH FRIDAY. THUS...EXPECT OVERALL DECREASING CLOUDINESS...ASWELL AS MOISTURE TRANSPORT ACROSS THE REGION. LATEST GFS MODELGUIDANCE AS WELL AS THE BLENDED TPW PRODUCE SUGGESTS PWAT VALUESWILL BE ON THE DECLINE AND ARE FORECAST TO GRADUALLY DROP TO BELOW1.50 INCHES LATER TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THE PREVAILING LOW LEVELWIND WIND FLOW WILL BE MORE FROM THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST...WITHAFTERNOON CONVECTION EXPECTED TO FORM...MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL ANDWESTERN INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. THERE IS STILL POTENTIALFOR SOME ISOLATED AREAS OF LOCALLY MODERATE TO HEAVY DOWNPOURSDURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS AS WELL AS THE CIMMS-MIMIC PWAT ANALYSISSHOWED A WEAK SURFACE LOW OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN MOVING WEST ATAROUND 15 KTS. THIS SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THECARIBBEAN WATERS THIS MORNING WITH MINIMAL INFLUENCES...IFANY...OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS. BY LATE NEXT WEEK...A WEAK FRONTALBOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH TO THE REGION TO ENHANCE SHOWERAND THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

.UPDATE...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES OVERPUERTO RICO AND USVI THIS EVENING. DOPPLER RADAR HAS SHOWN SPOTTYSHOWERS BEING CARRIED IN ON THE TRADES...MAINLY ACROSS THE LOCALWATERS. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS AS WELL AS THE CIMMS-MIMIC PWATANALYSIS SHOWED A WEAK TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDSMOVING EAST AT AROUND 15 KTS. THIS SURFACE TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATEDDEEP MOISTURE WILL ENCOMPASS THE LOCAL REGION OVERNIGHT. 18Z GFSMOVES THIS WEAK SFC TROUGH OVER THE LOCAL CARIBBEAN WATERS DURINGTHE NEXT 24 HOURS. AS A RESULT...EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AFFECTINGTHE USVI AND THE EASTERN THIRD OF PR EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY AFTERNOON CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WEST ANDSOUTH SECTIONS OF PR. CHANGES WERE DONE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECASTPACKAGE TO INCREASE THE POP`S IN FEW ZONES.

.SYNOPSIS...MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVR THE NEXT 24 HRS ANDHOLD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL ESTABLISH ACROSSATLC INTO THE ERN CARIBBEAN MID NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...BUILDING MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SUPPORT A DRYINGTREND THAT SHOULD LAST THROUGH FRI. OVR THE WEEKEND...MOISTURESURGES BACK WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN SCT CONVECTION. THINGS TURNMUCH WETTER ON MON AS AN INVERTED SFC TROF ESTABLISHES ACROSS THEAREA AND SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WEAKENS AS MID-UPPER RIDGE ERODES ASUPPER TROUGH ESTABLISHES TO THE NORTH. A SHEARLINE ASSOCIATED WITHA LOW PRES FCST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE ATLC NEXT WEEK WILL ALSO ENTERTHE MONA PASSAGE ON WED AND ACT TO ENHANCE SHOWER AND T-STORMACTIVITY ACROSS THE FCST AREA. SO OVERALL TREND...IS FOR SIG DRYINGNEXT TWO DAYS FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL MOISTENING OVER THE WEEKENDAND SIG BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...MID CLOUD DECK WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING WITHSIG DRYING/CLEARING EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. OVERALL...VFR CONDITIONSEXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH NO SIG WX.

.SYNOPSIS...AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH BASE NOW EXTENDINGSOUTH SOUTHWEST ACROSS CUBA AND HISPANIOLA...WHILE A HIGH PRESSURERIDGE BECOMES REESTABLISHED AND EXTENDS NORTH ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERNCARIBBEAN INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THESE TWO FEATURES ALONG WITHTHE STILL MOIST EASTERLY WIND FLOW...WERE STILL PROVIDING SUFFICIENTVENTILATION/DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO MAINTAIN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENTAND ENHANCEMENT OF SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS. THEUPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT FURTHER NORTH NORTHWEST OF THEREGION WHILE RIDGE ALOFT WILL BUILD NORTHWARDS ACROSS THE LOCALREGION. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MORE OF AN UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENTPATTERN TO FORM ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE PREVAILING EASTERLY TRADES CONTINUE TO TRANSPORTCONSIDERABLE AMOUNTS OF TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION THISMORNING. IN ADDITION THE UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WAS ALSOSTEERING PATCHES OF MID TO UPPER CONVECTIVE CLOUD DEBRIS ACROSS THELOCAL AREA AND ALLOWING FOR VARIABLY CLOUDY SKY CONDITIONS. SATELLITEIMAGERY AND DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR DEPICTED CLUSTERS OF CLOUDINESSWITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS THEREGIONAL WATERS WITH SOME BRIEFLY BRUSH PARTS OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND OCCASIONALLY THE EAST AND NORTHEAST COASTAL SECTION OF PUERTORICO AS WELL AS CULEBRA AND VIEQUES. FOR THE REST OF THE MORNINGEXPECT A GRADUAL DECREASE IN OVERALL CLOUDINESS AND CONVECTIONACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER DURING THE AFTERNOONHOURS...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ARE HOWEVER EXPECTED TOREDEVELOP AND BE FOCUSED MAINLY ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL ANDWEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO.

AS THE MID TO UPPER TROUGH LIFTS FURTHER NORTH NORTHWEST OF THEREGION...HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE WILL BECOME THE MORE DOMINANTFACTOR ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN. THEREFORE EXPECT A MORESTABLE PATTERN TO GRADUALLY EVOLVE ALOFT THROUGH OUT THE DAY ANDTHROUGH THURSDAY. FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS ...EXPECT OVERALL DECREASINGMID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS...AS WELL AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORTACROSS THE REGION. LATEST GFS MODEL GUIDANCE AS WELL AS THE BLENDEDTPW PRODUCE SUGGESTS PWAT VALUES WILL BE ON THE DECLINE AND ARE FORECASTTO GRADUALLY DROP TO BELOW 1.70 INCHES LATER TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY.THE PREVAILING LOW LEVEL WIND WIND FLOW WILL BE MORE FROM THE EASTTO SOUTHEAST...WITH AFTERNOON CONVECTION EXPECTED TO FORM...MAINLYACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. THEREIS STILL POTENTIAL FOR SOME ISOLATED AREAS OF LOCALLY MODERATE TOHEAVY DOWNPOURS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERACTIVITY ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS WILL ALSO DECREASE BY LATEMORNING WITH LESSER SHOWER EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OVERTHE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING WITH SCT SHRA VCNTY TIST...TISX...TJSJ AND TJPS. OTHERWISE TAF SITES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY VFR. LOW LEVELWINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE EAST SE AT 5 TO 15 KT. AFT 14/17ZEXPECT TSRA TO FORM WRN PR AND OVER CORDILLERA CENTRAL WRN HALF WITHMTN OBSCURATIONS AND MVFR AT TJMZ FOR CIGS AND VSBYS.

.UPDATE...IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSSTHE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. ATTM...RADAR DETECTED ISOLATEDTO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO OVER THE SURROUNDINGCOASTAL WATERS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE MONA PASSAGE. TJSJ EVENINGRAOB INDICATED PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ABOVE 2 INCHES WITH A LLVLSOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AT AROUND 15 KTS. WITH THIS UNSTABLE ATMOSPHEREIN PLACE...SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD INCREASE OVERNIGHT ACROSS THEREGIONAL WATERS AND MAY AFFECT THE EAST AND COASTAL SECTIONS OFPUERTO RICO. MINOR CHANGES WERE DONE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECASTPACKAGE. HOWEVER...LOCAL BUOYS AND LATEST WAVE MODEL GUIDANCE ARESTILL SUGGESTING SEAS OF AROUND 7 FEET ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTICWATERS. AS A RESULT...THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDEDUNTIL THURSDAY MORNING FOR THE AMZ710.

.SYNOPSIS...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED UPPER TROUGH SAGGINGSOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND MAINTAINING A STRONG DIFFLUENTPATTERN AND MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. A SURFACETROUGH WITH AXIS NOW OVER WESTERN PUERTO RICO AND THE MONA PASSAGE...WILL CONTINUE MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS HISPANIOLA TODAY. SATELLITEIMAGERY AND LATEST BLENDED TPW PRODUCT SHOWED A DEEP TONGUE OFMOISTURE SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION...WITH PWAT VALUES NOW AT 2.00INCHES OF MORE...MAKING THE LOCAL AIR MASS VERY UNSTABLE AND RIPEFOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING CONTINUED ALONGMUCH OF THE COASTAL MUNICIPALITIES OF PUERTO RICO AS WELL AS OVERPARTS OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS DURING THE EARLY MORNING. THE SHOWERSAND STORMS PRODUCED PERIODS OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURSIN ISOLATED AREAS... WHICH EVENTUALLY LEAD TO QUICK RISES OFRIVERS AND SMALL STREAMS AS WELL AS MINOR NUISANCE FLOODING INURBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

EXPECT THE CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TODIMINISH BY LATE MORNING. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE VERY FAVORABLE ANDMOIST ENVIRONMENT... EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF ACTIVE WEATHER ONCEAGAIN BY EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE ISLANDS. THE ACTIVITY SHOULDBE FOCUSED MAINLY AROUND PUERTO RICO... AS CONDITIONS REMAIN VERYUNSTABLE DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND THE SURFACETROUGH WHICH SHOULD GREATLY ENHANCE DAYTIME CONVECTION. EXPECTCONTINUED UPPER LEVEL INSTABILITY AT LEAST FOR ANOTHER 24 HOURS ORSO...WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN PWAT VALUES/ LAYERED MOISTURE BYLATE WEDNESDAY AND EARLY THURSDAY AS UPPER TROUGH LIFTS NORTHWARDS.ALSO DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK...MODELS SUGGESTS HIGHPRESSURE RIDGE ALOFT TO BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN.THEREFORE DIMINISHING CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND LESSER SHOWERS ANDTHUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY CAN BE EXPECTED BY THAT TIME AND INTO THEUPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION EARLYTHIS MORNING PRODUCING BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSSTISX...TJPS...TJMZ...TJBQ AND TJSJ UNTIL AT LEAST 13/11Z. MOSTLY VFRCONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE FLYING AREA BETWEEN 13/11Z AD13/16Z. THEN...AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN 13/17Z AND13/22Z ACROSS THE NW AND N CENTRAL PR...AND POSSIBLY AFFECTING TJMZAND TJBQ. TJSJ 13/00Z SOUNDING INDICATED AN EASTERLY WIND FLOW UP TO20 KNOTS FROM THE SURFACE TO 10K...BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY ANDSTRONGER ALOFT.

* AT 1058 PM AST...RUNOFF FROM PREVIOUS HEAVY RAINFALL HAS RESULTEDIN RISES ON RIO CULEBRINAS AT MARGARITA DAM. THE CURRENT RIVER STAGEIS 14.77 FEET AND RISING. MOTORISTS DRIVING ALONG THE RIO CULEBRINASIN FLOOD PRONE AREAS SHOULD EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION. MOVE TO HIGHERGROUND IMMEDIATELY AND NEVER TRY TO CROSS A FLOODED ROADWAY. AT15 FEET...THE RIVER WILL FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS IN ROUTE 115 AND418.

A FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR HAS BEEN REPORTED.STREAM RISES WILL BE SLOW AND FLASH FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.HOWEVER...ALL INTERESTED PARTIES SHOULD TAKE NECESSARY PRECAUTIONSIMMEDIATELY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTOAREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLYDEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFULENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODEDROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

HEAVY RAINS MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES ANDUNDERPASSES. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED ROADS AS THEYMAY BE WASHED OUT. WATER LEVELS OF SMALL STREAMS AND RIVERS MAY ALSORISE...THEREFORE SEEK HIGHER GROUND IF THREATENED BY FLOOD WATERS.

INTENSE LIGHTNING IS REPORTED WITH THIS STORM. IF OUTDOORS...STAYAWAY FROM ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. MOVE INDOORS IFPOSSIBLE. WHEN INDOORS...STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS AND AVOIDUSING TELEPHONES UNLESS IT IS AN EMERGENCY. TRY TO UNPLUG UNNECESSARYELECTRICAL APPLIANCES BEFORE THE THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES.

* AT 310 PM AST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMSWITH HEAVY RAIN DEVELOPING OVER THE ADVISORY AREA. RAINFALL AMOUNTSOF 1 TO 2 INCHES HAVE FALLEN IN PORTIONS OF THE ADVISORY AREA ANDCONTINUED TO RAIN. THIS HEAVY RAINFALL WILL HAVE THE CAPABILITY OFPRODUCING RAPID RISES IN SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS AND PONDING OFWATER IN URBAN AREAS AND STREETS AS WELL AS OTHER POOR DRAINAGEAREAS AND LOW LYING SPOTS.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTOAREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLYDEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFULENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODEDROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN. MOVE TOHIGHER GROUND.

.SYNOPSIS...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THESOUTHWEST ATLANTIC INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL MOVELITTLE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...MAINTAINING UNSETTLEDCONDITIONS THROUGH ABOUT WEDNESDAY. THIS TROUGH WILL THEN LIFTOUT WITH ELONGATED RIDGING EXPECTED TO EXTEND ACROSS THE FA FORTHURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST NORTHWEST OF THE LOCALREGION WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE THROUGH TONIGHT. A SURFACETROUGH OVER PUERTO RICO WILL CONTINUE MOVING WEST INTO THE MONAPASSAGE TONIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF THIS SURFACE TROUGH AND ITSASSOCIATED MOISTURE...THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH JUST WESTTHROUGH NORTHWEST OF THE LOCAL AREA AND LOCAL EFFECTS...SHOULDCONTINUE TO PRODUCE SOME CLOUDINESS...SCATTERED TO LOCALLYNUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THELOCAL ISLANDS FOR TONIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST PART OFTUESDAY AND POSSIBLY LASTING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. IT STILLAPPEARS THAT ADDITIONAL MOISTURE WILL AFFECT THE LOCAL ISLANDSFOR WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH AN OVERALL DRIER PATTERNCURRENTLY EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY...WITHANOTHER ROUND OF DEEPER MOISTURE CURRENTLY INDICATED FOR FRIDAYNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...SHRA/TSRA WILL AFFECT TJMZ AND TJBQ AFTER 12/18Z...CAUSING MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. WEATHER EXPECTED TO IMPROVE ACROSS NWPUERTO RICO AFTER 13/00Z. THEREAFTER...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS AREEXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL TERMINALS WITH CEILINGS AROUND 6K FT ASCLOUDINESS CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA. WIND IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISHOVERNIGHT...INCREASING ONCE AGAIN AFTER 13/12Z FROM THE EAST ATAROUND 10KTS WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS.

&&

.MARINE...GENERALLY EXPECT WINDS OF 18 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF4 TO 8 FEET IN NORTH SWELLS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH ATLEAST TUESDAY...WITH THE SEAS GENERALLY HIGHEST TONIGHT THROUGHEARLY TUESDAY ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND THE CARIBBEANPASSAGES...AS NORTH SWELLS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE. A SMALLCRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PARTS OF THE LOCAL WATERSTHROUGH AT LEAST EARLY TONIGHT AND SMALL BOAT OPERATORS SHOULDEXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS MOST OF THE REMAINING WATERS. PLEASE REFERTO SJUCWFSJU FOR FORECAST DETAILS.

.SYNOPSIS...AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY/SHEAR LINE JUST NORTHWESTTHROUGH NORTH OF THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DISSIPATETHROUGH TUESDAY. A SURFACE TROUGH NOW MOVING ACROSS THE LOCALISLANDS THE REST OF THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN WILL CONTINUEWESTWARD AND ENTER THE MONA PASSAGE LATER THIS EVENING THROUGHTUESDAY. THE COMBINATION OF THIS TROUGH AND STRONG SURFACE HIGHPRESSURE MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHWEST ATLANTIC WILL MAINTAINA MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHEAST TO EAST TRADE WIND FLOW ACROSS THEREGION THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. DEEPLY AMPLIFIED MID TOUPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWARDS ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND THEMONA PASSAGE...WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AND CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THELOCAL WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH AT TUESDAY...WHEN IT IS THEN EXPECTEDTO FILL WHILE LIFTING NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE WESTWARD TODAY ANDHELP PRODUCE PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSSMUCH OF THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN TODAY. THE MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHEASTERLYWINDS INDUCED BY THE SURFACE TROUGH AND FRONTAL SHEAR LINE WILL HELPENHANCE CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. THIS ALONG WITH GOOD UPPERLEVEL DIVERGENCE WILL FUT HER ENHANCE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AND PRODUCEPERIODS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS PARTS OF THE ISLANDS ANDLOCAL WATERS. EXPECT THE CONSIDERABLY MOIST AIR MASS ASSOCIATED WITHFRONTAL SHEAR LINE AND SURFACE TROUGH TO LINGER ACROSS THE REGIONTHROUGH MID WEEK. GOOD MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG WITH VERY FAVORABLEUPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL GIVE WAY TO UNSTABLE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSSTHE REGION AT LEAST THROUGH TUESDAY. THEREAFTER AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONEDTHE UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO FILL WHILE LIFTING NORTHWARDS.

EXPECT A CONTINUED OVERALL WET WEATHER REGIME THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK WITH INTERVALS OF CLOUDINESS AND EARLY MORNING SHOWERS ANDISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FOCUSED ALONG THE NORTH AND EAST COASTALREGIONS OF PUERTO RICO...CULEBRA AND VIEQUES...AS WELL ACROSS THEVIRGIN ISLANDS. DURING THE AFTERNOONS EXPECT CONVECTION TO GRADUALLYSPREAD ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL... WEST INTERIOR AND SOUTHWESTSECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. PERIODS OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALLAND BRIEF GUSTY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUED TO SUGGESTA GRADUAL DECLINE OF OVERALL PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES...AS WELLAS LESS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR ENHANCED CONVECTION AS HIGH PRESSURERIDGE WILL BUILD ALOFT ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION AND REST OF THE NORTHEASTCARIBBEAN. THEREFORE DIMINISHING CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND LESSER SHOWERSAND FEWER THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED BY THAT TIME AND INTO THE FOLLOWINGWEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE RESTOF THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ACROSS TJSJ...TJBQ...TIST...TISX AND TNCMIN PASSING SHRA/TSRA. ELSEWHERE...MOSTLY VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED WITHA FEW VCSH AROUND THE TERMINALS THROUGH 12/16Z. L/LVL WIND FLOW WILLREMAIN FROM THE NE AT 10 TO 20 KTS THIS MORNING...VEERING TO THE ETO ESE THIS AFTERNOON. SHWR COVERAGE WILL INCREASE AFT 12/16Z...AS A SFC TROUGH MOVES OVER THE LOCAL AREA FM THE EAST.

* AT 801 PM AST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMSWITH HEAVY RAIN DEVELOPING OVER THE ADVISORY AREA. RAINFALL AMOUNTSOF 1 TO 1.5 INCHES HAVE FALLEN IN PORTIONS OF THE ADVISORY AREA ANDCONTINUED TO RAIN. THIS HEAVY RAINFALL WILL HAVE THE CAPABILITY OFPRODUCING RAPID RISES IN SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS AND PONDING OFWATER IN URBAN AREAS AND STREETS AS WELL AS OTHER POOR DRAINAGEAREAS AND LOW LYING SPOTS.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTOAREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLYDEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFULENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODEDROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN. MOVE TOHIGHER GROUND.

.SYNOPSIS...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THESOUTHWEST ATLANTIC INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL MOVELITTLE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...MAINTAINING UNSETTLED CONDITIONSTHROUGH MID WEEK. THIS TROUGH WILL THEN LIFT OUT WITH ELONGATEDRIDGING EXPECTED TO EXTEND ACROSS THE FA FOR THE THURSDAY THROUGHFRIDAY TIME FRAME.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTHWEST OFTHE LOCAL REGION WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE BY MONDAY. A SURFACE TROUGHACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES WILL MOVE WEST ACROSS THE LOCAL AREAMONDAY AND THEN INTO THE MONA PASSAGE MONDAY NIGHT. THECOMBINATION OF THIS SURFACE TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED MOISTURE...THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH JUST WEST THROUGH NORTHWEST OF THELOCAL AREA AND LOCAL EFFECTS...SHOULD CONTINUE TO PRODUCE A GOODDEAL OF CLOUDINESS...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATEDTHUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS FOR TONIGHT THROUGHMONDAY AND THEN PROBABLY LINGERING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND ATLEAST THE FIRST PART OF TUESDAY...WITH THE PREVAILING LOW TO MIDLEVEL FLOW DICTATING THE LOCATION OF THE BEST SHOWER ANDTHUNDERSTORM COVERAGE EACH DAY. ADDITIONAL MOISTURE APPEARS TOLINGER ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS FOR WEDNESDAY...WITH AN OVERALLDRIER PATTERN CURRENTLY INDICATED FOR THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...PASSING SHRA AND ISOLD TSRA MAY CAUSE BRIEF PERIODSOF MVFR VIS AND CIGS ACROSS THE LOCAL TAF SITES. FRONT TO THE NWOF PR IS NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA AND CAUSE SUDDEN SHIFTIN WIND DIRECTION...BUT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHRA AND ISOLD TSRAARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND TOMORROW ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. AFTER12/16Z...TSRA IS LIKELY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF PR..AFFECTINGTJSJ...TJMZ...AND TJBQ. VCTS LEFT OUT OF TAF FOR TIST AND TISX DUETO UNCERTAINTY ON EXACT LOCATION OF TSRA ACROSS THE WATERS.

&&

.MARINE...GENERALLY EXPECT WINDS OF 17 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF4 TO 8 FEET IN NORTH SWELLS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH ATLEAST TUESDAY...WITH THE SEAS GENERALLY HIGHEST TONIGHT ANDMONDAY ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND THE CARIBBEAN PASSAGES...ASNORTH SWELLS PEAK. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FORPARTS OF THE LOCAL WATERS TONIGHT AND SMALL BOAT OPERATORS SHOULDEXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS MOST OF THE REMAINING WATERS. PLEASE REFERTO SJUCWFSJU FOR FORECAST DETAILS.

.SYNOPSIS...MID-UPPER LEVEL TROF EXTENDING FROM THE SW ATLC INTOTHE SCNTRL CARIB WILL MAINTAIN UNSETTLED CONDITIONS THRU MID WEEK.TROF WILL THEN LIFT OUT WITH RIDGING XPCD TO BUILD BRIEFLY THU-FRIBEFORE A NEW TROF BUILDS AGAIN AT THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHEARLINE CONFLUENCE NW OF PR AND ACROSS THE MONAPASSAGE WILL YIELD SCT-NMRS SHOWERS TODAY. FEATURE OF GREATERINTEREST HOWEVER IS SFC TROF LOCATED EAST OF 60W WHICH ISGENERATING SCT DEEP CONVECTION ATTM. THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE WWDNEXT 24 HRS AND HELP TRIGGER MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION MONMORNING ACROSS THE ERN THIRD OF PR AND THE USVI AND ACROSS NW PRMON AFTERNOON. THIS FEATURE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A SURGE IN DEEPMOISTURE WITH PWAT VALUES NEAR 2.25 INCHES PER BLENDED TPWIMAGERY AND K INDICES IN THE 30S. COULD SEE SOME FLASH FLOODINGTAKE PLACE ACROSS ERN PR MON MORNING.

NOT AS ACTIVE TUE-WED AS SFC TROF WEAKENS AND MOVES INTO THE MONAPASSAGE AND DOM REP BUT MID-UPPER LEVEL TROFFINESS WILL STILL AIDIN DEVELOPMENT OF SCT DEEP CONVECTION. RIDGING BUILDS IN BRIEFLYFOR THU AND FRI WITH SIG MID-LEVEL DRYING INDICATED BY MODELS.MODELS THEN SHOW MID-UPPER TROUGH ESTABLISHING AGAIN NEXT WEEKENDWITH A SFC TROF ACROSS THE FCST AREA. THIS LIKELY TO RESULT INBETTER CHANCES OF SHOWERS AGAIN FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...BRIEF MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNINGHOURS ACROSS TJSJ... TIST AND TKPK IN PASSING SHRA.ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDS EXPECTED WITH A FEW VCSH AROUND THETERMINALS THROUGH MID MORNING. LLVL WIND FLOW WILL REMAIN FROM THENNE AT 10 TO 20 KTS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SOME WIND GUSTSASSOCIATED WITH THE SHRA WILL RANGE BTWN 20 TO 30 KTS.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS BUILDING 7-9 FT MON IN MIXED NORTH AND ENE SWELLSTHEN SUBSIDING TO 6-8 FT TUE.

.SYNOPSIS...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFTEAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND...AS A TROUGH CONTINUESTO ESTABLISHES ITSELF JUST WEST THROUGH NORTHWEST OF THE LOCALAREA AND THEN PERSISTS THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM NEAR HAITI NORTHEASTACROSS THE ATLANTIC...AND ASSOCIATED SHEARLINE EXTENDING FROM NEARTHE MONA PASSAGE NORTHEAST...WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST SOUTHEASTTONIGHT...WITH THE SHEARLINE AND ITS ASSOCIATED MOISTURE EXPECTEDTO MOVE VERY NEAR THE LOCAL ISLANDS TONIGHT AND PROBABLY LINGERTHROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY...BEFORE LIFTING SLOWLY BACK TO THE WESTNORTHWEST MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE COMBINATION OF THIS SHEAR LINEAND ITS ASSOCIATED MOISTURE...THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH JUSTWEST THROUGH NORTHWEST OF THE LOCAL AREA AND LOCAL EFFECTS...SHOULD RESULT IN A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDINESS...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUSSHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE LOCAL ISLANDSFOR TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AND THEN PROBABLY LINGERING THROUGH MONDAYAND TUESDAY...WITH THE PREVAILING LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW DICTATINGTHE LOCATION OF THE BEST COVERAGE EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THELOCAL ISLANDS AND AT MOST TAF SITES DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.HOWEVER...BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AND LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONSARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 10/23Z...ESPECIALLY OVER THECENTRAL AND WESTERN INTERIOR...WEST AND SOUTHWEST SECTIONS OFPUERTO RICO...INCLUDING AT LEAST IN THE VICINITY OF TJMZ AND TJPSIN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...GENERALLY EXPECT WINDS OF 19 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF6 FEET OR LESS IN NORTH SWELLS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGHAT LEAST MONDAY. SMALL BOAT OPERATORS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION OVERPARTS OF THE LOCAL COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT.

AT 324 PM AST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATEDA CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ABOUT 35 MILES NORTHWEST OFAGUADILLA. THIS CLUSTER OF STORMS IS PRODUCING TORRENTIALRAINFALL...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND POSSIBLY STRONG WINDS UPTO 33 KNOTS...AS MOVES TO THE EAST AT 10 KNOTS.

.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTICINTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE OVER THE WEEKENDAS TROUGH PATTERN ESTABLISHES ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC INTOTHE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THE AFOREMENTIONED MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHWILL THEN PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SHEARLINE...NOW LOCATEDOVER DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST...WITH SHEARLINE APPROACHING PUERTO RICO THROUGHOUT THE DAY. AS ARESULT...LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND PWAT VALUES WILL CONTINUE TOINCREASE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS WITH SHOWERY CONDITIONS AS WELLAS COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT WEDNESDAY.

UNDER THE PREVAILING NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW...EXPECT LATE EVENING/EARLY MORNING SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH COAST OF PR AND USVI...ANDDIURNAL CONVECTION OVER THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST PRSATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WITH SUNDAY BEING THE WETTEST DAY DUE TOPLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COMBINED WITH AN INDUCE SURFACETROUGH ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. THE SHOWERY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TOCONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY WITH LATE EVENING/EARLY MORNINGSHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN PUERTO RICO AND DIURNAL CONVECTION ACROSSTHE NORTHERN SLOPES OF THE ISLAND. DIURNAL CONVECTION SUNDAY-TUESDAY WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...SCT T-STORMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE CNTRL CORDILLERAWITH MOVEMENT TO THE WSW AND POSSIBLY AFFECTING JMZ AND JPS WITHPOSSIBLE MVFR CIGS. WINDS FROM THE NE AT 10-15 KT IN THE LOWEST2KFT. UNSETTLED WX IS EXPECTED SUN-WED UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AMID-UPPER LEVEL TROF.

&&

.MARINE...A GENTLE TO MODERATE NORTHEAST TRADE WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUETO PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY...BECOMING EAST TO EAST SOUTHEAST EARLYNEXT WORK WEEK. NORTHERLY SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE LOCALATLANTIC WATERS AND MONA PASSAGE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.

.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC INTOTHE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYSAS TROUGH PATTERN ESTABLISHES ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC INTOTHE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THE AFOREMENTIONED MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHWILL THEN PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAILTHROUGH AT LEAST TODAY...WITH A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN PR ASWELL AS USVI DURING THE MORNING HOURS...FOLLOWED BY AFTERNOON CONVECTIONWHICH WILL BE MAINLY FOCUSED ACROSS SW PR...THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL...AND MAYAGUEZ AND VICINITY. AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULDBE STRONGER TODAY THAN YESTERDAY AS SUBSIDENCE INVERSION CONTINUESTO WEAKEN.

WEAKENING COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SHEAR LINE...NOW LOCATED WEST OFHISPANIOLA...WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST...WITH SHEAR LINEAPPROACHING THE MONA PASSAGE THIS AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...LOW-LEVELWINDS WILL BECOME NORTHEAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY ENHANCING CHANCE FORSHALLOW CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHERN COAST OF PUERTO RICO LATETHIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. GOOD CHANCES OF EARLY MORNING SHOWERSALONG THE NORTH COAST OF PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI AS WELL ASAFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS PORTIONS OF PR EXPECTED TO CONTINUETHROUGH AT LEAST NEXT TUESDAY AS PWAT AND FAVORABLE UPPER LEVELCONDITIONS INCREASE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...SCT T-STORMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE CNTRL CORDILLERAWITH MOVEMENT TO THE WSW AND POSSIBLY AFFECTING JMZ AND JPS WITHPOSSIBLE MVFR CIGS. WINDS FROM THE NE AT 10-15 KT IN THE LOWEST2KFT. UNSETTLED WX IS EXPECTED SAT-WED UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AMID-UPPER LEVEL TROF.

&&

.MARINE...A GENTLE TO MODERATE EAST TO EAST NORTHEAST TRADE WIND FLOWWILL PREVAIL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. NORTHERLY SWELLS WILL STARTAFFECTING THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS AND MONA PASSAGE TONIGHT INTOSATURDAY...THEN CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.