Jeera on NCDEX settled down by -1.26% at 19250 on profit booking after prices gained due to expectation of good demand for exports coupled with lower than expected supplies. The arrivals have been lower during the second half of current month compared to last month same period while the demand have increased. Sources estimate India’s jeera crop output will be around 2.5 lakh tonnes, lower than the 3.75 to 5 lakh-tonne estimates put out by experts. Even at the lower crop estimate, jeera exports are projected to range between 100,000-150,000 tonnes, for the year. Exports will happen in spite of higher prices because there is no supplier of jeera available globally. Syria has a significant share at 30,000-40,000 tonnes, while Turkey is very small at 10,000 tonnes. Going forward, arrivals will shrink. After reaching a peak of 45,000-50,000 bags (each of 55 kg), arrivals at Unjha, have fallen to about 25,000-30,000 bags now and will shrink further to about 5000-10,000 bags by May. In the wake of high demand and reducing supplies, we expect a fresh peak levels in Jeera prices in the coming weeks. As per data, during second half of March about 21,722 tonnes of jeera arrived compared to 22,108 during first half. On the export front, country the exports increase by 32.7% to 1,01,188 tonnes in first 10 month of marketing year 2016/17 as per the data release by Dept of commerce, GOI. In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged down by -6.45 Rupees to end at 18840 Rupees per 100 kg.Technically now Jeera is getting support at 18990 and below same could see a test of 18730 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 19490, a move above could see prices testing 19730.

Trading Ideas:

Jeera trading range for the day is 18730-19730.

Jeera dropped on profit booking after prices gained due to expectation of good demand for exports coupled with lower than expected supplies.

The arrivals have been lower during the second half of current month compared to last month same period while the demand have increased.