The 2008 Joint Declaration on Post-Crisis Assessments and Recovery Planning envisions a common platform for action for the European Union (EU), the United Nations (UN), and the World Bank.
... See More + The most prominent result was a shared methodology for post-disaster needs assessments (PDNAs) and post-conflict needs assessments (PCNAs), the latter of which has evolved over time into the present approach to recovery and peacebuilding assessments (RPBAs). The most recent review of this experience, completed in 2016 (Garrasi and Allen 2016), concluded that the host governments and the three partner institutions had not consistently followed up their assessments with coherent action. The goal of this review was effectively to identify lessons learned on what works for implementation and financing. This paper is arranged as follows: Section 2 discusses on How to assess the effectiveness and appropriateness of implementation and financing arrangements; Section 3 explains the contextual variables that shape what works, where, and why, drawing upon variations between the case study countries; and Section 4 gives the options and potential approaches for the RPBA process, governance and coordination, institutional alignment and financing.
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This study examines household perceptions and experiences with corruption in the Kyrgyz Republic. The aims of the study are two-fold: first, to assess the level of administrative corruption in public service agencies, and second, to assess the impact of corruption on different income groups.
... See More + This Poverty and Social Impact Analysis (PSIA) included a nationally-representative survey covering over 1,000 households in all regions of the country and focus groups with citizens, civil society organization (CSO) representatives, media and students.
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Haiti's economic development has been held back by a history of civil conflict and violence. With donor assistance declining from its exceptional levels following the 2010 earthquake, and concessional financing growing scarce, Haiti must learn to live with tighter budget constraints.
... See More + At the same time, the United Nations forces that have provided security in the past decade are scaling down. Against this backdrop, this paper explores the conditions under which public spending can minimize violent conflict, and draws possible lessons for Haiti. Drawing on an empirical analysis of 148 countries over the period 1960-2009, simulations for Haiti suggest that increases in military spending would be associated with a higher risk of conflict, an observation in line with Haiti's own history. Greater welfare expenditure (education, health, and social assistance), by contrast, would be associated with lower risk of conflict.
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This paper reviews both current practices and common challenges of measuring the causes, functioning, and consequences of violent conflict at the micro-level.
... See More + The authors review existing conflict -- and violence-related survey questionnaires, with a particular focus on the World Bank's Living Standard Measurement Surveys. Further, they discuss methodological challenges associated with empirical work in conflict-affected areas—such as operationalizing a definition of conflict, using the appropriate units of analysis, deciding on the timing of the survey, dealing with data biases and conducting surveys in an ethically sound manner—and propose ways to improve the usefulness of existing surveys to analyze conflict processes at the micro-level. Violent conflict, households, survey methods, questionnaire design.
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For many developing countries, natural resource exports such as oil, diamonds and copper continue to be important drivers for economic growth and provide a unique opportunity for generating revenues for much-needed infrastructure and human development.
... See More + Dependence on extractive resources, however, may also increase the likelihood of underdevelopment, fragility and conflict. The challenges for managing these resources efficiently are likely to expand, as a growing number of developing countries and fragile states emerge as oil and mineral producers. Thus, there is a need to gain a better understanding of the factors that may help prevent violent conflict in resource rich countries. This paper proposes that one way of gaining such understanding and insight is to “conflict-sensitize” the Extractive Industries Value Chain (EIVC), and use it as a framework for conflict prevention in resource-rich countries. In this context, the report’s main objective is to examine the potential opportunities for conflict prevention along the extractive industries value chain. Such a body of knowledge can help the World Bank, the UN and EU, as well as client countries and other partners, in their planning and coordination of complementary activities when implementing their programmes and projects, particularly when working in the same resource-rich countries. This paper aims to demonstrate the feasibility and challenges faced by adopting a conflict-sensitive approach within the World Bank’s EI Value Chain. The methodology used was a combined desk review and in-depth interviews with regional and country specialists, especially in governance/conflict prevention and extractive industries (Annex 1). The emphasis is on qualitative analysis. The four countries that were desk reviewed for the project, including Chile, Peru, the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), and Zambia, are all copper producers and were selected due to their heavy dependence on revenues from mining. This book is arranged as follows: (i) part one explains extractives, conflict prevention and the value chain; (ii) part two is about the EI value chain as framework for conflict prevention; (iii) part three talks about emerging themes and recommendation; and (iv) part four describes the four country examples and the emerging lessons.
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The authors investigate the effect of exposure to violent conflict on human capital accumulation in Burundi. The authors combine a nationwide household survey with secondary sources on the location and timing of the conflict.
... See More + Only 20 percent of the birth cohorts studied (1971-1986) completed primary education. Depending on the specification, authors find that the probability of completing primary schooling for a boy exposed to violent conflict declined by 7 to 17 percentage points compared to a non-exposed boy, with a decline of 11 percentage points in our preferred specification. The authors also find that exposure to violent conflict reduces the gender gap in schooling, but only for girls from non-poor households. Forced displacement is one of the channels through which conflict affects schooling.
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Violent conflict, a pervasive feature of the recent global landscape, has lasting impacts on human capital, and these impacts are seldom gender neutral.
... See More + Death and destruction alter the structure and dynamics of households, including their demographic profiles and traditional gender roles. To date, attention to the gender impacts of conflict has focused almost exclusively on sexual and gender-based violence. The authors show that a far wider set of gender issues must be considered to better document the human consequences of war and to design effective postconflict policies. The emerging empirical evidence is organized using a framework that identifies both the differential impacts of violent conflict on males and females (first-round impacts) and the role of gender inequality in framing adaptive responses to conflict (second-round impacts). War’s mortality burden is disproportionately borne by males, whereas women and children constitute a majority of refugees and the displaced. Indirect war impacts on health are more equally distributed between the genders. Conflicts create households headed by widows who can be especially vulnerable to intergenerational poverty. Second-round impacts can provide opportunities for women in work and politics triggered by the absence of men. Households adapt to conflict with changes in marriage and fertility, migration, investments in children’s health and schooling, and the distribution of labor between the genders. The impacts of conflict are heterogeneous and can either increase or decrease preexisting gender inequalities. Describing these gender differential effects is a first step toward developing evidence-based conflict prevention and postconflict policy. This overview examines the emerging empirical evidence on both the differential impacts of violent conflict on males and females and the role of gender inequality in framing adaptive responses to conflict
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This note draws a parallel between a venture entrepreneur developing her high-risk high return venture with the help of a network of professional service providers and investors and a diaspora member constructing, with support of her own problem-solving networks, a portfolio of project with her home countrys institutions.
... See More + Such a portfolio may consist of three segments: low risk- low impact initiative; medium risk- medium-impact; high risk, high impact. Such a portfolio-based approach to home country- diaspora interactions allows for the perfect combination of policies and programs to promote home country development, and enables policy-makers to engage in a process of natural experimentation, introducing and observing variation in the policy context, economic outcomes, and the connection between them. The key question for policy makers and donors is how they can support, i.e. help to design, finance, and grow such portfolios of projects of diaspora members in their home countries.
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The objective of the study was to provide a detailed evidence-base for recovery and development strategies in the conflict-affected areas. The study sought to investigate the nature, scope and impacts of a range of vulnerabilities.
... See More + In particular, it explored people's experience of displacement, as well as the complex factors that have driven and shaped the settlement decision of IDPs. It asked all respondents their views of state and non-state institutions and what government and donors should prioritize in their efforts to support peaceful, sustainable development. It is hoped that this summery, and the full report it accompanies, can serve to shape the operational choices of humanitarian, recovery and development agencies and improve outcomes for the population on the ground. The findings it presents shed considerable light on the nature and extent of vulnerability in the affected area across provinces, population categories and livelihood groups.
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The 2011 World Development Report (WDR) on 'Conflict, Security and Development' has reaffirmed global research that conflict is in many respects a self-perpetuating cycle.
... See More + Put simply, factors related to the onset of conflict are reinforced by ensuing violence trapping countries in a cycle which is hard to break, with ominous implications for development assistance. The best known exposition of the conflict trap is based on economic factors. Collier et al. wrote in 2003 that a 'country that first falls into the trap may have a risk of new war that is 10 times higher just after that war has ended than before the war started. If the country succeeds in maintaining post-conflict peace for ten years or so, the risk is considerably reduced, but remains at a higher level than before the conflict'. According to this 2003 study, war not only erodes and complicates economic conditions, it also allows particular groups to accumulate wealth and, hence, gain a financial stake in continued or renewed violence. As the 2011 WDR itself suggests, some of the most integral drivers of conflict and fragility may relate to institutions and the quality of governance.
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Conflict's path of devastation and chaos has dramatically slowed the ability of wartorn countries to reach the Education for All (EFA) goals adopted in Dakar in April 2000.
... See More + This paper sketches the situation confronting children, their families and governments in conflict countries and describes the challenges of reaching universal primary education. The paper reviews progress made in each of the main reconstruction sectors during the transition to independence. A key lesson emerging relates to the trade-off between speed of delivery and capacity building. In East Timor the sectors which made more progress in establishing institutions were often less strong initially in achieving physical reconstruction targets.
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Indonesia's democratic transition was accompanied by a range of violent conflicts. Separatist conflict in Aceh escalated and claimed thousands of lives before a successful peace deal in 2005, and continues at a low intensity in Papua.
... See More + Thousands died in ethnic riots in West and Central Kalimantan and Jakarta. Inter-religious and inter-ethnic violence broke out in 1999 in Maluku and North Maluku and in 1998 and 2000 in Central Sulawesi. Terrorist acts have been infrequent but deadly. In addition, many areas have been affected by smaller-scale 'routine' violent conflicts over resources, politics, and identities. This brief provides early evidence from a new database on Indonesian violent conflicts. The Violent Conflict in Indonesia Study (ViCIS) records all incidents of violent conflict and violent crime between 1998 and 2008 as reported in local newspapers. This brief focuses on trends and patterns of violent conflict in four provinces that were previously affected by escalated violence (Aceh, Central Sulawesi, Maluku, and North Maluku) as well as Papua and West Papua, the sites of an ongoing low-level separatist movement. The note does not consider violent crime which will be analyzed in a separate publication. Key questions addressed are: how have violent conflict levels, forms and impacts changed over time in provinces that previously experienced high levels of violence? Which places are currently most affected by violent conflict? And how much variation is there between areas in recent patterns of violent conflict? ViCIS aims to fill knowledge gaps on violent conflict in Indonesia to enhance evidence-based conflict management and prevention policy-making.
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Indonesia's democratic transition was accompanied by a range of violent conflicts. Separatist conflict in Aceh escalated and claimed thousands of lives before a successful peace deal in 2005, and continues at a low intensity in Papua.
... See More + Thousands died in ethnic riots in West and Central Kalimantan and Jakarta. Inter-religious and inter-ethnic violence broke out in 1999 in Maluku and North Maluku and in 1998 and 2000 in Central Sulawesi. Terrorist acts have been infrequent but deadly. In addition, many areas have been affected by smaller-scale 'routine' violent conflicts over resources, politics, and identities. This brief provides early evidence from a new database on Indonesian violent conflicts. The Violent Conflict in Indonesia Study (ViCIS) records all incidents of violent conflict and violent crime between 1998 and 2008 as reported in local newspapers. This brief focuses on trends and patterns of violent conflict in four provinces that were previously affected by escalated violence (Aceh, Central Sulawesi, Maluku, and North Maluku) as well as Papua and West Papua, the sites of an ongoing low-level separatist movement. The note does not consider violent crime which will be analyzed in a separate publication. Key questions addressed are: how have violent conflict levels, forms and impacts changed over time in provinces that previously experienced high levels of violence? Which places are currently most affected by violent conflict? And how much variation is there between areas in recent patterns of violent conflict? ViCIS aims to fill knowledge gaps on violent conflict in Indonesia to enhance evidence-based conflict management and prevention policy-making.
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This paper reviews the literature on the development consequences of internal armed conflict and state fragility and analyzes the relationship using data from World Development Indicators, Ukraine Corporate Development Project UCDP/Peace Research Institute of Oslo (PRIO) Armed Conflict Data (ACD), and World Bank state fragility assessments.
... See More + Our main focus is on a set of development indicators that capture seven of the Millennium Development Goals, but the author also look briefly into the effect of conflict and fragility on growth, human rights abuses, and democratization. The author analyze these relationships using a variety of methods, averages by conflict and fragility status; cross-sectional regression analyses of change in each indicator over the time frame for which we have data; fixed-effects regression analyses of the impact on each indicator for each five-year period 1965-2009; as well as occasional panel time series models and matching techniques. In section two, the author summarizes the methodological choices and presents our conflict data. Section three summarizes the results of our analysis. Finally, section four analyzes the effects of internal armed conflict on the attainment of the individual Millennium Development Goals (MDGs).
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