Hurricane RAYMOND

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HURRICANE RAYMOND DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172013
200 PM PDT MON OCT 21 2013
OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...THE EYE OF RAYMOND HAS BECOME A LITTLE
MORE DISTINCT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY. IN FACT...EARLIER MICROWAVE AND
GEOSTATIONARY IMAGERY SHOWED A VERY SMALL EYE AROUND 15Z...SO
PERHAPS THE STORM HAS GONE THROUGH AN EYEWALL REPLACMENT CYCLE
TODAY. DVORAK SATELLITE ESTIMATES AT 18Z WERE T6.0/115 KT FROM SAB
AND T5.5/102 KT FROM TAFB...AND BASED ON A BLEND OF THESE...THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 110 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE INTENSITY
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT RAYMOND IS NEAR ITS PEAK...ALTHOUGH EYEWALL
REPLACEMENT CYCLE AND INNER-CORE DYNAMICS COULD LEAD TO SHORT-TERM
FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS THAT ARE
NOT SHOWN IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN
AFTER THAT TIME...AS THE SHEAR VECTOR BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY AND
RAYMOND MOVES OVER SLIGHTLY COOLER WATERS LATER IN THE PERIOD. THE
NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS LARGELY UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE
AND IS CLOSE TO OR A LITTLE ABOVE THE LGEM MODEL.
RAYMOND HAS BEEN STATIONARY FOR SEVERAL HOURS NOW...AND LITTLE
MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS WHILE THE
STEERING CURRENTS REMAIN WEAK. THE GFDL AND HWRF CONTINUE TO BRING
RAYMOND NORTHWARD CLOSER TO THE COAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
SO...WHILE THE GLOBAL MODELS STILL SHOW A SLOW SOUTHWARD OR
SOUTHEASTWARD MOTION. THE NHC TRACK INDICATES LITTLE MOTION DURING
THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AND SOME ERRATIC
MOTION IS POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME. LATER IN THE PERIOD...THE
GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING NORTH OF THE
CYCLONE...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A WESTWARD MOTION THROUGH THE END
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THERE REMAINS CONSIDERABLE NORTH/SOUTH
SPREAD IN THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE LATER IN THE PERIOD...SO
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW IN THE DETAILS OF THE TRACK FORECAST
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. OVERALL...THE NHC TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE
PREVIOUS ONE AND IS NEAR THE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN BY DAY 5.
REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT TRACK OF THE HURRICANE AND HOW CLOSE IT GETS
TO THE COAST...HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL
MEXICO DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...CAUSING LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 21/2100Z 16.3N 102.2W 110 KT 125 MPH
12H 22/0600Z 16.4N 102.1W 110 KT 125 MPH
24H 22/1800Z 16.3N 102.1W 105 KT 120 MPH
36H 23/0600Z 16.3N 102.3W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 23/1800Z 16.2N 103.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
72H 24/1800Z 15.8N 105.2W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 25/1800Z 15.5N 108.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 26/1800Z 15.5N 111.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
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