January 24-27 Potential Significant Winter Storm!!!

January 24-27 Potential Significant Winter Storm (Updated 1/20) By Andrew at 10:18 AM There is potential for a winter storm from January 24th to January 27th across much of the nation east of the Rockies. Let's do a model analysis and see what the latest forecasts hold.

Shown above is the GFS forecast, valid for the morning of January 25th. We can see the storm system is centered in eastern Tennessee, with precipitation also shown. Snow is shown in blue, and rain is forecasted in the traditional green colors. We see the system is moving relatively eastward towards the Mid-Atlantic, dropping some accumulating snow as it goes. This snow would most likely accumulate in the northern Mid-Atlantic, with cold air still in place following this weekend's cold outbreak and additional cold air following in the wake of this system.

It should be noted that the GFS model has been swaying from a north track (snow hits the Midwest and northern Ohio Valley) to a south track (snow impacts the areas shown above), reducing my trust in its credibility. Now that we have seen the southern track, let's take a glance at the north track.

The highly-respected ECMWF model and its ensemble system (commonly called the EPS) are supporters of the northern track at this time. The ECMWF takes the system a bit north of its ensembles, putting the storm system in south central Indiana. Enough cold air would be in place to theoretically give snow to many of the areas described in the small paragraph above these images, like the Midwest, Ohio Valley and into the Lower Great Lakes. The EPS takes the storm system just a few hairs south of the operational ECMWF model, but nonetheless would keep accumulating snow within the same relative realm of the ECMWF model itself. A quick glance at ECMWF snow accumulations on a pay-to-view site agrees with my above thoughts in a swath of accumulating snow in Illinois, Indiana, Michigan and Ohio, to name a few states.

The Canadian GGEM model, usually not one to be in sync with other models, appears to be lining up relatively well with the ECMWF model, The low pressure system is a bit further north on the GGEM model, and temperatures are warmer than the ECMWF model, but the Canadian model can still theoretically be defined as in the north track. Although I don't really care for the GGEM on account of its messy track record, it's in one of the tracks at this time, and thus deserves to be noticed.

At the moment, looking at various teleconnections, I am seeing the Pacific-North American index go negative during this timeframe. This means negative pressure anomalies (low pressure) on the West Coast (hence negative PNA), which causes high pressure to build in the East. This would most likely prevent suppression of this storm, giving some strength to the North Camp. The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) will be in a phase favorable for making storms stay away from the Deep South and instead taking a more northern route like the ECMWF/EPS are suggesting. The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), which, in its negative phase can cause Nor'easters, will be too weak to help this situation out.

This is the current situation unfolding with the potential winter storm that would fall within the timeframe of January 24-27. I have displayed the two most reliable weather models' ESTIMATED tracks (I say estimated because I believe the ECMWF is actually a bit further south) for this storm system. There is a very messy agreement that the storm will happen, but that's where the line is drawn. While the ECMWF projects widespread accumulations, much of which falls within the blue 'Potential Accumulating Snow' area, the GFS is much more restricted on snow, with only parts of the Ohio Valley and Northeast benefitting.

At the moment, out of consistency, lower cyclone track error and overall better verification in recent runs than the GFS, I'm feeling much better siding with the ECMWF than the GFS. I feel that the GFS is just too wobbly for my liking, while the ECMWF has a swath of accumulating snow down pat in a situation much more fit to happen with frigid Arctic air to the immediate north. Additionally, the ECMWF's ensemble system is in good agreement with the blue ECMWF track, greatly enhancing the credibility of such a track. On the contrary, the GFS' ensemble system is disorganized with this system and should not be taken at face value- it faces some of the same issues as the GFS model itself.

At the moment, I will side with the blue track, but I will not map out accumulations due to model disagreement that I am not comfortable deciphering for the time being.

* TIMING...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS THAT HAVE BEEN DIMINISHING THIS MORNING OVER MOST OF NORTHEAST OHIO AND INLAND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE WARNING AREA.

* WINDS...WEST 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH.

* IMPACTS...DRIVING WILL BE SLOW AND HAZARDOUS WITH HIGHLY VARIABLE ROAD CONDITIONS.

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE MARYLAND PORTION OF THECHESAPEAKE BAY...TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER...AND ADJACENT COUNTIES INCENTRAL MARYLAND AND NORTHERN VIRGINIA AS WELL AS THE DISTRICT OFCOLUMBIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOONAND EVENING. THE FRONT WILL BRING THE POSSIBILITY OF SCATTEREDSNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION...MAINLY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON ANDEARLY EVENING HOURS. THE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS MAY PRODUCELOCALIZED SNOW ACCUMULATIONS UP TO AN INCH...AND BRIEFLY REDUCEVISIBILITIES TO BELOW ONE-HALF MILE. MELTING FROM ANY SNOW SHOWERCOULD QUICKLY ICE OVER AS ARCTIC AIR POURS IN BEHIND THE FRONT.

thanks for this thread to keep me informed...im in the ohio valley and supposed to be going back home to s.e. michigan middle of the week by car...i had no idea this storm was coming because we dont have tell u vision...my gosh, am i stuck here?

...you are dangerous to everyone---not because you are ungifted, but because you embrace evil with your teachings. In so doing, in trying to be kind, to be unselfish, in trying to be nonjudgmental, you allow evil to become far more powerful than it otherwise would. You refuse to see evil, and so you welcome it among you. You allow it to exist. You give it power over you. You are a people who have welcomed death and refuse to denounce it. You are an empire naked to the shadow of evil. Terry Goodkind, NAKED EMPIRE

Saw a neat little lamp on one of the latest episodes of Moonshiners. Use a short pre-made candle that can be picked up anywhere and split a tin-can partway down the side so you can open it up like two windows and that is how you load the candles in and the device directs the light in one direction and with some experimenting the lowest a chimney and inlet holes can be determined as it is also supposed to act like a little stove and double burning the exhaust makes the air less toxic. 6" of snow is not a big deal until the wind just keeps blowing it around for days on end, from the ground to 20' the visibility is zero, above that the sky is blue. Having a bit of hose that will slip onto your exhaust pipe means you don't have to get out and keep digging that spot clear should you get stuck.

Anybody make a 220v genset that I can run off my vehicles tire (like a dyno), for the times I want to use the stove and dryer and welder. All my lights are 12v so the battery charge means the vehicle has to run that amount anyway

A blast of Arctic air more intense than anything experienced during the winter of 2011 - 2012 has descended over the Midwest U.S., bringing the coldest temperatures in nearly two years. The low hit -2°F Monday morning in Des Moines, Iowa, marking the first day since February 10, 2011 that Des Moines had dropped below zero. The 710 consecutive days the city had gone without reaching 0°F was the longest such streak on record (previous record: 368 straight days, beginning January 23, 1954.) In Minneapolis, the mercury dropped to -10°F Monday morning, the coldest day since February 10, 2011. With the high temperature not expected to get above zero Monday, the city will likely snap its record-long streak of just over four years without a high temperature above 0°F. The last time the high temperature at the Minneapolis airport was below zero was on January 15, 2009, when the thermometer climbed to only -6°F. Strong winds accompanying today's cold blast have dropped the wind chill to a dangerously cold -40 to -50°F across much of Minnesota and North Dakota. The wind chill bottomed out at -51°F at Langdon, North Dakota at 4:35 CST Monday morning, thanks to a temperature of -22° combined with a wind of 17 mph. The wind chill hit -46°F at nearby Devils Lake and -51° at Hamden. The lowest wind chill in Minnesota was at Le Center: -43°F. Brr!