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I think a big question is what happened with the 'team of scouts' that AA hired to figure out stuff like which pitchers will be effective or not going forward, and why did the entire starting staff fall apart? For the big 5 not one is anywhere near what was expected.
Dickey: past 3 years ERA+: 129 This year: 89 = 40 points
Buehrle: past 3 years ERA+: 109 This year: 88 = 21 points
Johnson: past 3 years ERA+: 142 This year: 82 = 60 points
Morrow: past 3 years ERA+: 102 This year: 76 = 26 points
Romero: past 3 years ERA+: 105 This year: 37 = 68 points (just 4 1/3 IP this year in majors, 5.16 ERA in minors)

#6 Happ is close: past 3 years ERA+: 84 This year: 87 = +3 points so actually a teeny tiny bit better. Then he was hit in the head.
The others are as good as one could hope, but the big 5 was what the Jays counted on in the offseason.

To paraphrase Mr. Burns - one or two injuries/ineffectiveness I could see, but 6? I'd like to see that!

When a team's pitching declines surprisingly, I tend to assume it's defense-related. (Same as when a team's pitching improves surprisingly). Could this explain Toronto's disappointing year so far (and the Yankees and Red Sox's surprisingly good years)?

The above is simplistic (a lot of guys split time in the outfield both years), but offhand, it sure looks like the Red Sox have a markedly better defensive lineup than last year. And the ERA has dropped. (Now I don't see marked improvement in Defensive Efficiency or DPs or anything -- maybe it just is the pitchers -- but I'd be curious what other people think).

When a team's pitching declines surprisingly, I tend to assume it's defense-related. (Same as when a team's pitching improves surprisingly). Could this explain Toronto's disappointing year so far (and the Yankees and Red Sox's surprisingly good years)?

Possible, but the bullpen has been fantastic. So much so that even though the best starter has an ERA+ of 89, the team overall is at 101.

Dickey 54 walks and 24 HR in 233 IP last year. 48 and 23 in 100 fewer this year. Strikeout rate is down.
Johnson: K and BB rate are fine, but HR rate is double last year.
Buehrle's walk rate is much higher than last year, highest since his rookie year.
Morrow's HR rate is more than twice last year.

Dickey's BABIP is actually better than the last few years despite a higher line drive %. His peripherals are just worse. Hard to blame the defense for that (although his DP% is also terrible this year).

Buehrle's peripherals are marginally worse than last year but the BABIP is also a lot higher. The defense might be partially responsible there.

Dickey: an old guy with a relatively short run of good performance and who moved to a much better offensive league/division regresses.*

Buehrle: an aging guy who has be consistently a little above average is putting in a bit below average performance

Morrow: a bit of a drop but not nearly as much as one flukish year makes it look. Do you really believe he's a 102+ pitcher?

Romero: not enough of a sample to draw any conclusion

Happ: pitched like Happ in, again, a fairly small sample

Basically, the only one that looks really strange is Johnson. And last year was just a bit above average ERA+ in a weaker league/division.

Basically, I think Dickey is right: they're overrated. The starters at any rate.

* I love Dickey's story and am a big fan. But just because he's a knuckleballer doesn't mean he can defy age completely. 38 year olds sometimes regress, occasionally dramatically. I'd say he's doing okay.

Without referring to any numbers, just going by my fan's eye...(more for fun than anything else, I'd be curious what these guesses look like against other Jays fans/metrics)

C - Arencibia - poor
1B - Lind and Encarnacion splitting time, Encarnacion getting a few more starts - Lind is bad, Encarnacion is above average to good.
2B - a bunch of guys, Izturis, Kawasaki, now Lawrie...though Bonifacio has had the most time and he sucks
3B - Lawrie to start, Izturis has taken over - I'd say 3B has been above average on the whole.
SS - Reyes with Kawasaki getting a lot of injury time - Reyes good, Kawasaki below average, but passable.
LF - Melky Cabrera to start, Rajai Davis played while he was out - Cabrera looks pretty bad out there, Davis is above average
CF - Rasmus seems like a fine CF.
RF - Bautista - average to a bit above average

All in all I'd rate it not a good defence. The infield was hurt by Lawrie and Reyes being hurt. Bonifacio got way too much time at 2B, and I'd be full-time DHing Lind, unless Encarnacion has some durability issue with playing in the field everyday. The outfield seems alright, though now that Melky is back, I don't know...he looks awfully ugly out there sometimes. It's hard to believe he was once considered a good CF.

Toronto is above average in defensive efficiency, for whatever that's worth.

RA Dickey should agree that he is overrated.

You are treading very dangerous ground.

Dickey has made fools of his naysayers for 3 years running, and 3 out of the last 13 years, so there may be as much of a 1 in 4 chance you are forced to grudgingly retract or attach a modifier to that statement.

R.A. Dickey is the latest example of the Zito Rule: when fans of a team start pushing their star pitcher in online trade discussions, the pitcher's due for a downfall.

I don't know why it works this way, but a couple of years before Zito signed his big contract with the Giants, you started to see A's fans proposing trades where they would -- reluctantly of course -- part with Zito in return for XXX incredible return. They still liked Zito, mind you -- they just subconsciously wished their team could have Zito's value without actually having Zito.

Last winter, the desire of Mets fans to trade Dickey in return for Dickey's perceived value was palpable. It's not that they weren't fans of Dickey, they just wanted to be fans from a distance rather than up close.