Archive: Slowdown in EU milk deliveries predicted in 2015

Published 15 October 14

The latest short term outlook report from the European Commission forecasts that EU milk deliveries could reach 142 billion litres in 2014, 3.7% higher than in 2013. For 2015 the latest forecast suggests a slowdown in the level of growth, with deliveries up a further 1.6% to 144.4 billion litres.

The Commission has highlighted two key elements which will affect the growth of milk deliveries in 2015. The first is the impact of quota which the Commission expect will lead to a significant slowdown in milk production during the first quarter of 2015 in an attempt to limit the levy bill. This will affect those Member States still bound by quota such as Denmark, the Netherlands, Ireland and Germany, although there is an expectation that production could rebound somewhat once quotas are removed in April 2015.

The second element identified by the Commission is the impact of milk prices. The Commission notes that, on average, it takes between three and six months from a strong decline in commodity prices for farmers to react with reduced production. The report estimates that the lowest point for EU farmgate milk prices may not be reached until the first quarter of 2015, leading to the forecast that growth in milk deliveries will slow in the latter part of 2015 relative to the rates seen in 2014.