The college basketball season is winding down and soon enough it’ll be tournament time. That period will be important for a number of NBA Draft prospects, because most of the best candidates have been surprisingly inconsistent this year. A good—or a really bad—finish is likely to have a major impact on the way the draft shakes out (order based on standings through Sunday).

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1

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Charlotte Bobcats: Cody Zeller, C, Indiana

Zeller has had some notably bad outings, and his 2-for-9 showing against Minnesota last week added fuel to the fire for those who aren’t big on him. Scouts are mixed about his potential, but just about everyone likes him enough to consider him a Top-5 pick. With the injury to Nerlens Noel, no one has dazzled in this class, and the bet here is that when it comes time to make this pick, Zeller will have impressed in workouts and his size will keep him in this spot.

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Orlando Magic: Nerlens Noel, PF, Kentucky

Noel’s knee injury will be closely monitored, but the feeling among scouts and execs is that he will be able to bounce back quickly. Blake Griffin, remember, had knee surgery before playing an NBA game, too. Noel might have dropped a bit further, but again, a lot of the lottery prospects have been having struggles lately. Noel will certainly stay in the Top 10.

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Washington Wizards: Otto Porter, SF, Georgetown

Scouts I spoke with early in the year said that they expected Porter to have a breakout at some point and that he would climb the draft boards. That breakout is upon us, as Porter has averaged 27.7 points on 58.1 percent shooting in his last three games. Porter’s versatility is impressive and he looks like a classic NBA small forward.

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Cleveland Cavaliers: Anthony Bennett, PF, UNLV

Bennett might have been the No. 1 pick in this draft if he were a couple of inches taller. He suffered a shoulder injury two weeks ago and was limited to 0-for-2 shooting his next time out, but the shoulder is not expected to hurt his draft stock. Bennett is strong on the block and an excellent rebounder, but he is undersized for his position at 6-8. He does have a 7-1 wingspan, though, and scouts think that will be good enough to get him into the Top 5 or so.

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Sacramento Kings: Ben McLemore, SG, Kansas

After a three-game stretch in which he scored just 28 points and shot 9-for-28 from the field, McLemore bounced back with 36 points against West Virginia on Saturday. He stumbled Monday with 13 points on 5-of-14 shooting against Texas Tech. His stock has slipped a bit in the eyes of some scouts, but should he get on a hot streak to finish the year, he will certainly be in the Top 5. McLemore is 6-5 and has a good, natural shooting stroke, but there are questions about whether he is quick enough to get by NBA defenders.

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New Orleans Hornets: Marcus Smart, PG, Oklahoma State

Smart has had some bad games recently, which fits with the patterns of his fellow prospects—just when you think someone’s shooting up the board, he stumbles a bit. There is some concern about whether Smart can be an NBA point guard, because he lacks size (6-4) at shooting guard. There are a few too many Tyreke Evans comparisons. Smart has the ballhandling skill to play the point, but it’s an open question as to whether he has the court vision and playmaking skill.

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Phoenix Suns: Victor Oladipo, SG, Indiana

Oladipo has made significant strides in his junior year. He has worked his way into the lottery by becoming a much better shooter, making 63.4 percent from the field and 49.0 percent from the 3-point line. He still needs polish, but his athleticism and shooting ability have made him one of the real climbers in this draft.

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Minnesota Timberwolves: Shabazz Muhammad, SG, UCLA

Muhammad has cooled a bit since the beginning of the season, and the emergence of other guards like Smart, McLemore and Oladipo has caused him to slide a little, but he still is a very solid scorer with excellent athletic ability. No matter how well other guards play, it is hard to imagine Muhammad dropping out of the Top 10 in this draft.

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Detroit Pistons: Trey Burke, G, Michigan

Burke has gotten better as the season has gone on, and he is likely to land in the lottery. He is a good playmaking point guard who can score his own points. He is not a top-flight athlete but he is creative in getting himself free and has a good series of stop-and-start moves. In his last four games, he has averaged 23.5 points on 55.6 percent shooting, with 6.8 assists.

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Oklahoma City Thunder (from Toronto Raptors): Alex Len, C, Maryland

Len is 7-1; start with that as to why he will be a lottery pick. But he has not shown consistency for the Terps this year, and scouts would like to see him be more assertive in the middle. He has been held under 10 points in six of his last 10 games; part of that is because he makes bad decisions on defense and gets himself into foul trouble.

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Philadelphia 76ers: Willie Cauley-Stein, C, Kentucky

Cauley-Stein has played much better since coming back from a knee injury in January, and with Noel out, he is showing what he can do as the main man in the paint. In his last four games, Cauley-Stein has averaged 13.0 points, 8.8 rebounds and 4.3 blocks. If he can keep up those good numbers to close the year, he will solidify his status as a lottery pick.

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Dallas Mavericks: Kelly Olynyk, C, Gonzaga

No one is benefitting from Gonzaga’s surprising rise more than Olynyk, who was nowhere to be found on most draft boards a few months ago. The 7-footer is averaging 17.7 points and 7.0 rebounds in 25.6 minutes. He is a solid defender and has some shooting range. At 21, he is more of a finished product than other players in this draft, but that’s not necessarily a negative.

The foot injury that has likely put McCollum out for the year will not have much of an impact on his draft stock, it seems. Before the injury, McCollum was the most impressive and efficient shooting guard in the draft, which has some quality prospects at the position. He was averaging 23.9 points on 49.5 percent shooting, making 51.6 percent of his 3s. The fact that he is a senior is a negative, and he is only 6-3. But he can, no doubt, shoot.

There is no doubt that Carter-Williams is the best pure point guard in this draft, and his playmaking—he averages 7.9 assists per game—should get him into the lottery. He is also a very good defensive point guard, and that boosts his stock, too. The problem is he really struggles to shoot, making 37.8 percent of his shots and 28.4 percent of his 3-pointers. As one scout said, “It’s an unfixable problem.”