Updated Monday at 4:30 PM.... The Weather Prediction Center has a SLIGHT RISK for 4 inches of snow over central and western Kentucky and southern Indiana. More often than not when a slight risk for 4 inches of snow is issued, we usually get less. That's why it is called a slight risk.

The morning model runs now all take the heaviest snow south of Louisville with 2-4 likely south.This is the afternoon NAM run.....blue is 2 inches. This is pretty representative of most of the computer model morning runs..

Advertisement

So while the models mostly had 1-3 or 2-4 in previous runs, now it is more in the 1-2 or 1-3 range for Louisville.

Here is the latest WLKY snow forecast......

Louisville NWS says..... Still expecting a widespread 1 to 4 inches, with central KY most likely to see amounts in the 2 to 4 range. Best chance for 1 to 2 will be along and north of the Ohio River where deeper moisture, and even ice crystals are lost earlier.

NWS Paducah..... When all is said and done, expect snow/sleet amounts of 1/2 to 1" across the south, and 1 to 2" across the north, with potential 2 to 3" in portions of the northeast.The northeast is Evansville and Owensboro.

Here are the snow chance maps from the Weather Prediction Center.....

For 1 inch or more of snow for the 24 hour period ending Wednesday 7:00 PM.......Louisville is in the 80-90% range.

.

2 inches or more.....Louisville is in the 60-70% range..

4 inches or more....Louisville is in the 10-20% range with areas just west of Elizabethtown in the 30-40%..

Here is what the WPC says.....

There will be some adjustments in the track and totals over the next 24 hours. Snow is likely late Tuesday night and Wednesday morning. It just a matter of how much.The 1-3 or 2-4 scenarios are most likely.

The second system later in the week is still forecast to bring heavy snow to a portion of the Ohio Valley.NWS Louisville says....This system will have stronger dynamics, better upper level forcing and a more developed surface low (compared to this Wednesday`s system). Additionally there will be much more moisture. In short, there is potential for another round of impactful snowfall accumulations across the area, but since we`re still 4-5 days out, there is plenty of time to see how this evolves. However confidence is increasing that some sort of winter weather impacts will be around during this period.