Corporate America is stepping up its investment plans this year, but the main reason may come as a surprise. An improved business outlook — rather than the Trump administration’s tax cuts — is driving companies’ decisions.

The International Monetary Fund warned policymakers to be on guard for the next recession even as it predicted global growth will accelerate to the fastest pace in seven years as U.S. tax cuts spur businesses to invest.

Business confidence in the U.S. declined in the second quarter and is now at its lowest level since the fourth quarter of 2016, according to a new report from the Association of Chartered Certified Accountants and the Institute of Management Accountants based on a survey of accountants.