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New census estimates show continuation of Alabama's population haves and have-nots

Fairhope housing.JPG

Construction workers put finishing touches on new houses in Fairhope in this file photo. Baldwin County added more new residents than any other county in the state between 2012 and 2013. (Josh Bean/jbean@al.com)

Alabama’s story of the population haves and have-nots continues unabated, according to the latest estimate released Thursday by the U.S. Census Bureau.

Overall, Alabama’s population inched up by .3 percent from 2012 to 2013. Within the state, according to census data, a decades-long trend continued. More than half of the state’s 67 counties lost population. A handful of counties clustered in large urban areas accounted for virtually all of the growth.

The Census Bureau based the estimates, measuring the change in population from July 2012 to July 2013, on birth and death records, housing starts and tax data.

“We’ve had a long-term pattern of urban areas showing growth and rural areas losing population,” said Larry Childers, a spokesman for the Alabama Department of Economic and Community Affairs.

The outlier among metro-area counties was Montgomery County, which shed the most people in the state, posting a population decline of 2,634.

Childers attributed Montgomery’s population decline to a shrinking state workforce. “I think that’s probably the major contributor,” he said.

The biggest loser as a percentage was Macon County, which lost 3.4 percent of its population. Since the 2010 census, the county is down by about 8.2 percent. Others that lost population were concentrated in the rural, impoverished Black Belt region. Monroe, Perry, Dallas, Washington, Lowndes, Greene, Choctaw and Marengo all posted yearly declines of more than 1 percent.

“There are some changes in economic opportunity in the state,” said Yanyi Djamba, the director of the Center for Demographic Research at Auburn University Montgomery. “Those very poor areas, the Black Belt area, continue to lose population because of the lack of opportunity.”

At 3.2 percent, Russell County had the fastest growth rate. Since the 2010 census, the Columbus, Ga.-area county, has grown at a blistering 12.5 percent clip.

Alabama’s other fast-growing counties include Baldwin, Lee, Limestone, Shelby, St. Clair, Madison and Tuscaloosa. All grew by more than 1 percent in the last year.

Childers said he believes base closures across the country, which resulted in transfers to Fort Benning, have fueled growth in Russell and Lee counties. He said Limestone benefits from its proximity to Madison County and a relatively strong economic engine in Huntsville

Baldwin surges

Spanish Fort resident Kristina Butler, who moved to Baldwin County in August, said her family relocated because her mother-in-law lives in the area and because Mobile has federal law enforcement agencies that offer job opportunities for her husband after he retires from the military.

Butler said she has enjoyed living on the Eastern Shore because it is close to shopping and other amenities yet has a small-town feel.

“We came to this county because of the housing market and because of the schools, but mainly because of the school district,” she said.

Butler is not alone. In numeric terms Baldwin added the most people from 2012 to 2013 – 4,865. The Daphne-Fairhope-Foley area now exceeds 50,000 residents, which prompted the Census Bureau to reclassify Baldwin County as a stand-alone metropolitan area.

Population gains are nothing new for Baldwin, which has been growing faster than the state average for decades. But the growth rate of the past year appeared to kick up a notch. The percentage change in the past year was greater than what Baldwin averaged the first two years of the decade.

“We’re well aware that we’re going to grow and going to have spurts where we’re going to grow even faster,” said Baldwin County Commission Bob James, who also serves as chairman of the Eastern Shore Metropolitan Planning Organization.

“It reinforces what we we’ve known for some time, but it’s remarkable to see it reflected in the census stats,” said Terry Wilhite, a spokesman for the school system.

Darrelyn Bender, the president and CEO of the Eastern Shore Chamber of Commerce, said Baldwin has begun to see residential growth along Ala. 225 north of Spanish Fort as people seek homes outside of high-rate insurance zones. She said business and government leaders are working to widen and improve roads to stay ahead of the population increase.

“We have even during the recession had steady growth, which is a good thing,” she said. “We were kind of like in a bubble. We were hit but we weren’t hit as hard as the rest of the county.”

Growth slows in Shelby

While growth continues unabated in Baldwin County, it appears to be slowing in the county it most often is compared to. For the last two decades, population has increased at a slightly faster clip in Shelby County. Its 1.6 percent growth rate in the past year, though, placed it fifth in the state.

Since 2010, Shelby’s 4.7 percent growth rate has been more than 2.5 percentage points below Russell, Lee, Limestone and Baldwin.

“We do see it. When economic downturn hit in 2008, we saw a significant reduction in growth because of the housing bubble,” said Randy Fuller, Shelby County school system superintendent. “There just weren’t as many housing starts.”

Fuller said the school system has been adding between 275 and 300 students a year since the recession. Prior to that, he said, it was averaging a net gain of about 1,000 students a year.

The respite has allowed the 22,300-student system to catch up. Fuller noted that the system opened three new schools in the past year.

Fuller said that with the economy improving, there are signs that growth may be picking up again, but he added that he does not know if it will return to pre-recession levels.

While the growth rate has slowed somewhat, Greater Shelby County Chamber of Commerce officials said the county remains a popular destination for Alabamians relocating from elsewhere.

“We’ve got lots of growth in this community … and new businesses moving in,” said Kirk Mancer, president and CEO of the business group.