Canada

The geek shall inherit

The Liberals pick a bookish green

FOR more than a century, every elected leader of the Liberal Party has eventually gone on to lead Canada. So it was not too much of a stretch for Stéphane Dion, the surprise winner of a fiercely contested Liberal leadership convention, to be hailed as “the next prime minister.” But as Mr Dion, a grey-haired and bespectacled former academic of stern intellect and zero charisma, thanked the 5,000 delegates in French and stilted English, many in the crowd were already wondering if the accolade was plausible.

The long list of shortcomings cited by his detractors starts with Mr Dion's supposed unpopularity in his native Quebec. He was drafted into the federal cabinet in 1996 after the wife of the prime minister at the time, Jean Chrétien, saw him on television defending federalism and commended him to her husband. As minister for inter-governmental affairs, he drafted the Clarity Act, which sets stiff conditions for any province to secede from Canada and is hated by Quebec separatists.

Mr Dion was later environment minister, a subject about which he is passionate but on which the Liberal record in government was poor. Being a Quebecker is said to be another handicap, especially one who stumbles when speaking in English. Two long-serving recent Liberal prime ministers, Mr Chrétien (1993-2003) and Pierre Trudeau (in office for most of the period from 1968 to 1984), hailed from the province. Canadians in the booming west, where the Liberals hold only 13 of 92 seats, grew tired of Quebec's political ascendancy, especially when the party machine in the province was embroiled in a corruption scandal under Mr Chrétien. An investigative commission laid no blame against Mr Dion for the scandal, but he may still be tainted by association.

All that is to underestimate Mr Dion, as his rivals for the party leadership did. He arrived at the convention as a dark horse. The frontrunners were Michael Ignatieff, a writer and journalist, and Bob Rae, who was once the premier of Ontario when a member of the leftish New Democratic Party. Mr Ignatieff, in particular, had a slick machine, which doled out sandwiches and bottled water bearing the Iggy logo and had managers in headsets manoeuvring hordes of supporters into place for supposedly spontaneous demonstrations.

In contrast, Mr Dion's campaign looked homespun, consisting mainly of green T-shirts and placards. But to many delegates, Mr Ignatieff, a neophyte politician who lived abroad for 30 years, came across as just as much of a carpetbagger as Mr Rae. Mr Dion profited, too, from the antipathy between their respective supporters. But he also laid out the most detailed platform and emphasised his cabinet experience, which none of his rivals could match.

Mr Dion will not have much time in which to unite the party behind him. Since the Conservative government lacks a majority in Parliament, a general election could happen at any time. Stephen Harper, the prime minister, is thought to favour calling an election in the spring, after introducing a budget that will serve as a campaign platform.

A poll this week by the Strategic Counsel gave the Liberals 37% support, compared with 31% for the Conservatives. That may merely reflect a post-convention bounce. But 62% of respondents in Quebec said Mr Dion was a good choice for Liberal leader, with only 29% saying he was not. Opposition to the new leader in Quebec has been overstated, says Don Johnston, a minister under Trudeau and former head of the OECD. “His critics don't even bother checking the facts.”

Similarly, Mr Dion's environmentalism looks like an asset rather than a liability. In some opinion polls, the environment now tops health care as the top public concern. Mr Harper's new clean-air legislation, which was debated in the House of Commons this week, has been widely criticised as too weak.

One criticism is harder for Mr Dion to rebut. He is indeed bookish and lacking in charisma. But so is Mr Harper, and that did not stop him from turfing the Liberals out of office in last January's election. Mr Dion, said one commentator, is Mr Harper with a French accent. In an era when politics has degenerated into tawdry glitz, Canada seems to have bucked the trend. The next election campaign promises to be a real thumb-sucker.