Breaking down the Browns' schedule: Elite QBs, early home games, fewer road back-to-backs and more

Browns games against the Jets in Week 5 and Titans in Week 7 (shown) have produced announced attendance totals of 62,032 and 59,061, respectively.

Browns optimism usually reaches its peak at this time of year.

Draft week — aka Cleveland's Super Bowl — is almost upon us, the Browns seem to have improved quite a bit during free agency, while still maintaining the most salary-cap space in the league, and all of the debate over the draft-eligible quarterbacks soon will end.

(It will end after the Browns pick one of them, right? OK, just humor me.)

The NFL, in one of its smarter moves, adds to that anticipation with the release of the regular-season schedule one week before the draft. That, of course, results in full schedules that are leaked on social media hours before the prime-time TV special, and humorous radio bits — hey there, Ken Carman and Anthony Lima — that predict the results of each game.

The Browns, if you go by the 2017 regular-season records of their opponents (134-122), have the league's fifth-toughest schedule. But how much does that mean, really, in a league known for such year-to-year volatility?

Heading into the 2017 season, the Browns, going by 2016 records, had one of the league's 12 most favorable schedules, with opponents who had combined for a 120-136 record the year before. (We don't need to remind you how that turned out.)

The two Super Bowl combatants, the Eagles and Patriots, had 2017 schedules that were the 10th- and 12th-most difficult, with opponents who were a respective 16 and 14 games over .500 in 2016.

The point: Strength of schedule can be vastly overrated, because the NFL, aside from the Patriots making a deep playoff run, might be the most difficult league to predict each year.

So let's look at the Browns' 2018 schedule from a bit of a different perspective, with some business elements factored in ...

• Six home games in the first 10 weeks: That should be a positive development for a team that, by the time the season kicks off, will have turned over quite a bit of its roster. And it's a good thing if you care about the atmosphere at FirstEnergy Stadium. Home games in December have been a very bad thing for the Browns for the majority of, oh, the last 19 seasons. Avoiding that, while adding to the odds that the Browns can win a few games in the first half of the season, is a win-win.

• The Steelers in Week 1: Yes, we believe strength of schedule numbers can be deceiving, but penciling in the Steelers for double-digit victories seems like a safe prediction. Thus, if you're going to play the Steelers at home, it might as well be in Week 1. Last season, the soon-to-be 0-16 Browns lost to Pittsburgh by a field goal in Week 1 at FES. In 2014, the Steelers, who won 11 games that season, needed a 41-yard field goal by Shaun Suisham with no time remaining to defeat the Browns 30-27 at Heinz Field.

• Two sets of road back-to-backs: In Weeks 7 and 8, the Browns will play at Tampa Bay and at Pittsburgh. Four weeks later, they will begin a stretch in which they play at Cincinnati and at Houston in consecutive weeks.

That's an improvement from 2017, when the Browns had three road back-to-backs, including a pair in the last six weeks of the season.

• Lack of marquee home opponents: This means way more to the Browns' business team than it does general manager John Dorsey, but it is worth pointing out that the Browns' non-division slate at FES — the Jets, Chargers, Chiefs, Falcons and Panthers — isn't exactly a collection of powerhouse draws. The Patriots, Packers, Cowboys, Eagles and Rams aren't coming to town, which is good for Hue Jackson's job security — but not for season-ticket and single-game sales. (That said, taking Sam Darnold, Josh Rosen or Baker Mayfield at No. 1, followed by the likes of Bradley Chubb or Saquon Barkley at 4, will have more of an impact on the bottom line than any visit by Tom Brady and Bill Belichick.)

• The elite QBs: This is a category — the number of stud QBs on a team's schedule — that we think is more indicative of how difficult, or favorable, a slate appears.

The Browns could be facing as many as seven elite QBs — if you count Ben Roethlisberger twice — this season. Roethlisberger, Drew Brees, Philip Rivers, Matt Ryan and Cam Newton are no-brainers in this category, and you could make the case for Houston's Deshaun Watson, depending on how the second-year QB recovers from a 2017 knee injury.

Five of the Browns' contests are against QBs we'd consider to be middle of the road — Andy Dalton (twice), Derek Carr, Jameis Winston and Case Keenum. Granted, Carr and Winston could end up being top-12 passers, and putting Keenum in this category after one productive season might be generous (or foolish, if you go by his excellent 2017 stats), but somewhere in the 13-20 range seems most likely for all five of these QBs.

That leaves four matchups against QBs we'd put outside the league's top 20 — Joe Flacco (twice), Josh McCown and Patrick Mahomes. The latter, who was Alex Smith's backup in Kansas City last season, could wind up being an effective starter in his first full season, but placing Mahomes in this tier seems like the most reasonable move.

• Prime-time players: The Browns, who have been shut out of the league's prime-time slate five times since 2000, will play a Thursday night home game against the Jets in Week 3.

This will be their first prime-time matchup outside of the AFC North since a Thursday night game against visiting Buffalo in 2013. The Browns — with Brandon Weeden at QB and Willis McGahee as the top running back (26 carries!) — won that matchup 37-24.

This year's prime-time contest should feature a much better QB in Tyrod Taylor, and an improved supporting cast.

'Tis the season for positive thoughts. But is the optimism FINALLY warranted?

We won't know for quite a while, but you can be certain we'll all have opinions on that by the end of Dorsey's first draft in Berea.

You can follow me on Twitter for sports information and analysis, and to yell at me in six and a half months if Mahomes ends up being excellent.

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