Viewers guide to shutdown drama

It’s clear that Senate Democrats will send back a clean spending bill to the House sometime this week, shifting the government shutdown spotlight back to House Speaker John Boehner.

But the Senate’s arcane procedure leaves the timing in flux, a key consideration for the speaker. The later the Republican-controlled House receives a spending bill without its Obamacare defunding language, the greater the pressure is on the House to choose whether to pass a clean continuing resolution or risk a government shutdown.

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If the Senate decides to greatly accelerate its timetable, the House could receive a “clean” spending bill — without the language defunding Obamacare that is triggering the shutdown talk — as soon as Thursday. But a Saturday arrival in the lower chamber is more likely, just two days before the government is scheduled to partially shutter on Oct. 1.

In a week of news reports filled with byzantine parliamentary terms like “cloture” (a procedural vote) and “continuing resolution” or CR (a government funding bill), here’s how the rest of week could go down.

Thursday

The upper chamber will work overtime to speed up the timetable to finish its work on the CR, trying to avoid votes this weekend. Members of the upper chamber loathe working after Friday and the Senate is prone to govern under the motivation of jet fumes wafting back to their home states.

But a quicker timetable wouldn’t just give the Senate more free time: It would also make things a little easier for the House and perhaps a bit less alarming for the American people and Wall Street if the two chambers can strike an agreement before Tuesday, government shutdown day.

“We have the ability to wrap this up today. And I would suggest that would be the best thing to do,” Reid said Thursday morning. “But it’s up to my Republican colleagues as to whether they will let that happen.

Also on Thursday the House Rules Committee will begin its work on raising the debt ceiling — and attaching a mass of conservatives goodies to that package, including perhaps a one-year delay to the individual mandate in Obamacare and/or banning health care subsidies under Obamacare to lawmakers and Hill staffers who join exchanges.

Friday

On Friday the Senate is slated to vote to end debate on the continuing resolution. Things could move faster after this only if senators who oppose the outcome realize it is pretty much predetermined.

The Friday vote would be set at a 60-vote threshold, and Sens. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) and Mike Lee (R-Utah) are urging Republicans to defeat it because of Democrats’ ability to strip out the defunding language. Cruz and Lee will lose this vote because nearly all GOP leaders will vote against them — the remaining question is at this point by how much they will go down.

After the vote to cut off the debate on the CR, the fireworks aren’t over. But Democrats no longer need Republican votes to do their work.

Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid will move to strip out the language defunding Obamacare, which he can do by a simple majority. He will also move to continue government funding through Nov. 15, which is one month less than the House bill provided. Republicans have filed amendments that would cut congressional pay without a budget resolution, eliminate federal subsidies for lawmakers and delay Obamacare’s individual mandate, but Reid has already moved to block the consideration of any amendments other than his own.

A possible sleeper issue is a budget point of order, which could be raised because the Senate bill funds the government at $986 billion, about $20 billion more than the Budget Control Act requires. Such a point of order would require 20 votes to surmount. After that is resolved, the Senate would then move to final passage of the spending bill, which could pass with a simple majority — in other words, Democratic votes. The deadline for that is no later than Saturday afternoon.

The House is also expected to vote on its debt ceiling bill on Saturday, but that schedule could change depending on when the Senate delivers its spending bill. The CR remains more urgent, because the deadline for hiking the debt ceiling is Oct. 17.

Later Saturday

House Republicans could receive a clean funding resolution as early as Thursday and as late as Saturday — depending on whether the Senate can agree to speed up action. That gives Boehner a critical choice: Will he pass the continuing resolution without defunding Obamacare? Or will he amend the Senate bill with another controversial alteration to Obamacare?

It’s unclear what day the House would choose to act, but it will be sometime this weekend. But it’s clear what conservatives want.

“I think you’ll see that we will add some things. We’re going to continue to fight on the CR,” said Rep. John Fleming of Louisiana, a tea party Republican.

Democrats argue the ping-pong game will end in a government shutdown. The defund movement — started by Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) — has quieted in the Senate since he ended his maraton, 21-hour speech on Wednesday, but House conservatives appear to be girding for yet another confrontation over Obamacare. Senate procedure simply takes too long for the upper chamber to reconsider amendments at a late hour, like an Obamacare delay, aides say.

Reid is urging the House to accept his chamber’s bill.

“The economic price of shutting down the government shouldn’t be the only thing keeping Republicans up at night. They should worry about the political consequences as well,” Reid said. “They over there [in the House] are picking up where the long talk over here ended: Close the government. The tea party is still insisting on a shutdown. Hard to comprehend, but it’s true,” Reid said.

Boehner must choose whether to punt the fight over Obamacare to the debt ceiling in October or satisfy the right flank and double down on the CR. On Thursday morning, Boehner appeared to be leaning toward the latter when he was asked by reporters whether the House will pass the Senate’s clean CR.

“I don’t see that happening,” the speaker said, adding that he didn’t expect a government shutdown.

Perhaps each chamber will have to seek a release valve if they can’t resolve their differences on a spending bill into the fall. One option to do just that would be to agree to pass one-week bill — and continue this fight in October.