June 8, 2016

Report "Southeast Asian Submarine Developments" available to donors.

1. I have emailed the first Submarine Matters Special Report to donors.

- Report subject is Southeast Asian Submarine Developments.

- This report is more than 1,250 words.

The report concentrates on the four Southeast Asian nations (Vietnam, Singapore, Malaysia and Indonesia) that have submarines and discusses the chances of the other seven nations buying submarines. There are many reasons why submarines will be bought or not. Two reasons are strategic priorities and sea levels around a country (see map above).

18 comments:

Anonymous
said...

Hi Pete

I enjoyed the special report which well outlined submarine situation in the Southeast Asia (SA), and I could understand the future submarine trend of the SA. LIBs will be definitely adopted in future submarines for the Southeast Asian countries. Singapore is going to buy TKMS 218G [1] equipped with AIP which may be methanol reforming fuel cell and exert superior indiscretion ratio. Obviously, the future submarines of the SA will show higher speed and better indiscretion ratio.

As RAN is aiming at achievement and maintenance of regional superiority of its submarines, they must show highest speed and best indiscretion ratio as well as silence. However, it is difficult to believe that LABs based Shortfin without AIP can exert highest speed and best indiscretion ratio, suggesting logically that regional superiority is not achieved by the proposed Shortfin.

Contrary, reginal superiority may be maintained and achieved by TKMS Type 216 equipped with fuel cell and LIBs, if the noise issue is fixed by improvement of vibration or noise reduction systems and if they use well- proven LIBs and fuel cells.

Advantage such as high efficiency of pump jet propulsion is exerted at high speed like 30knot/h, but, maximum speed of LABs based submarine is around 20 knot/h.

From the view point of regional superiority and proven submarine, Japanese and German submarines are better than DCNS. CEP was over, but, frankly its decision is still open to question.

China deploys her carrier, Liaoning to the South China Sea area as a symbol of her naval ability. But, Japanese and US submariners seem to believe it as an ideal target ship, and they enjoy torpedo practices [1].

[1] http://nationalinterest.org/blog/the-buzz/the-ultimate-way-sink-aircraft-carrier-16643?page=2 (The National Interest, “The Ultimate Way to Sink an Aircraft Carrier” by David Axe, June 18, 2016) see last few paragraphs*snips*Those vessels (=Song-class submarines plus Type 091 nuclear subs) are the best defense China possesses against the American and Japanese subs that will undoubtedly hound Liaoning every time she leaves port, practicing to sink the carrier in the event of war.*snips*RegardsS

"That wasn’t the only NATO carrier the Soviets tailed. In 1984 a Victor-class Soviet submarine played cat and mouse with the flattop USS Kitty Hawk off the Korean Peninsula. The Americans lost track of the Victor and, in the dead of night, the 80,000-ton carrier actually collided with the 5,000-ton sub.

“I felt the ship shudder violently and, going to the starboard side, I could see two periscopes and the upper part of a submarine moving away,” Kitty Hawk Capt. Dave Rogers told The Sydney Morning Herald. A Japanese patrol plane later spotted the apparently damaged Victor limping away at three knots."

In modernization of Oyashio class of JMSDF, command and control systems are replaced by those of Soryu class. Modernized Oyashio class is nearly same as 27 or 28SSs, final version of Soryu except equipment of LIBs, full rubber coating of hull and X-shaped tail planes.

Thanks for the updates on the Peruvian Navy's 209 upgrades and non-AIP Soryus 27SS and 28SS.

It is interesting that 27SS and 28SS Soryus that don't have AIP come after the AIP Soryus while the non-AIP Oyashios come before the AIP Soryus

Readers can see the Oyashios, AIP Soryus and non AIP 27SS and 28SS on the Soryu Table at the end of this Submarine Matters article http://gentleseas.blogspot.com.au/2016/04/soryu-cutaway-diagrams-evolution.html .

The ex-Vice Admiral and ex-Commander of Fleet Submarine Force of JMSDF, Masao Kobayashi presents series of article on submarine [1] which are very interesting. According to the ex-Vice Admiral, the building cost of Virginia submarine is 26 billion US$ (=3.45 billion AUS$ = 314.6 billion yen) [2], which is nearly 5 times more expensive than 28SS Soryu (64.3 billion yen).

Based on this discussion, it is expected that the total building cost of 6 Shortfins plus 4 Virginias become much more expensive than that of 12 Shortfins.

On top of the US$2.6 Billion for a Virginia SSN the cost of training and maintaining the 135 crew (or usual 2 x 135 = 270 standard Blue-Gold) would be vastly more than training just a 60 man crew for the current Collins or future Shortfin.

But the vastly higher capability of an SSN - especially sustained discrete submerged speed - needs to be considered. While an SSK slowly and indiscretly snorts the ability of an SSN to rapidly become available from Fleet Base West to above Northern Australia or to Australia's eastern seaboard makes subs for Australia truely effective.

Very arguably 12 SSKs for Australia is a deficient number given India or Japan, with there much shorter coastlines, envisage more than 20 attack subs.

The ex-Vice Admiral, Masao Kobayashi said (SHIPS OF THE WORLD, from 2016, No.9);

i)Sonar system of SSN is much superior or sensitive to that of SSK. but SSK cannot adopt the former sonar which is spherical shaped and all-around type, but requires huge amount of power which powerless SSK cannot supply;

ii) Current SSN, which is far quiet than older SSN, may be a little bit noisier than SSK, but it has much better sonar system. So, we cannot judge which type of submarine firstly find other type; and

iii) In battle between SSN and SSK, even if SSK firstly find SSN, SSN might escape from attack by SSK, but if SSN firstly find SSK, SSK can never escape.

Australia, like Canada, has major disadvantages of a vast coastline and island responsibilities, yet we have very limited financial resources (tied to small populations).

This means, even if Australia and Canada restrict themselves to "cheap" SSKs we can never have sufficient numbers of them. They can't be in enough places waiting for unfortunate SSNs to pass by.

This is why Australia and Canada, with varying degrees of publicity have considered buying SSNs at each time we buy SSKs. This is in preliminary studies leading to the Oberons, Collins and about 5 years ago to the present day until about 2030.

I think comparative cost is very difficult because of exchange rate fluctuations and the politics behind the state, monopoly or duopoly enterprises that build subs. I especially distrust Russian estimates. Very easy for politicians or their state officials to underestimate costs.

2. Yes the costs and highly international and domestic political proliferation issues of nuclear fuel are major. For example the US's 90+ % HEU fuel is reputedly made in specially built for-military-only facilities (but with superpower economies of scale) while

much lower % (LEU?) fuel for France's Triomphants and Barracudas reputedly costs less as it is made in dual-use civilian-military plants.

3. So the smaller, lower power sonar of the TKMS 210mod may not be such a good selling point :)

In SHIPS OF THE WORLD, from 2016, No.9, by Masao Kobayashi did Kobayashi predict that Japan may, one day, have SSNs?

On India leasing the SSN - now named INS Chakra - I haven't seen any evidence that Chakra is operational or at sea.

Chakra is just one SSN - providing no constant SSN availability (as that would require 3 SSNs).

I think it likely that Chakra spends most time berthed at India's Fleet Base East (Vishakhapatnam) where its crew requirements, hull, sensors and reactor are being studied for India's future SSN project.

No matter what India's politicians and admirals claim I think launch of an Indian SSN is still a decade away.

Submarine Matters

Director, Submarine Matters International. I analyse international trends, technical and political - mainly on submarines, sometimes on surface ships, aircraft and missiles. This website started in 2007. I have a Masters Degree (International Relations) High Distinction average. The best way to navigate this site is to put a keyword in the search box top left corner.