Thursday, January 17, 2013

Bargains and Busts: 2012 A.L. Pitchers

The most accurate prediction I might have ever made came in the
final paragraph of 2011's A.L. pitcherbargain
and bust article.

It's hard to predict whether or not the best
pitchers will stay so far ahead of the pack. But … the volatility at the bottom
of the pack will remain. Paying big bucks for premium pitchers - regardless of
what the bottom looks like - will likely remain a solid proposition in 2012.

Top 10 Salaries, 2012 A.L. Pitchers

#

Player

$

Sal

+/-

CBS

LABR

TW

PK

2011

1

Justin
Verlander

$39

29

10

30

29

28

33

$46

2

David
Price

$36

26

10

26

27

25

28

$24

3

Jered
Weaver

$32

26

7

28

23

26

29

$36

4

Felix
Hernandez

$31

26

5

25

27

25

29

$23

5

CC
Sabathia

$28

26

2

24

27

26

29

$29

6

Dan
Haren

$14

25

-11

25

27

22

28

$31

7

Jon
Lester

$9

22

-13

22

24

21

24

$20

8

Mariano
Rivera

$3

22

-18

21

21

23

22

$23

9

C.J.
Wilson

$17

21

-3

20

23

19

19

$27

10

James
Shields

$29

20

9

21

19

20

22

$34

Average

$24

24

0

24

25

24

26

$29

The three most expensive pitchers happened to also be the three
best pitchers in the American League last year. Felix was the fifth best,
Shields was seventh, and Sabathia was eighth. If you went top dollar for an ace
last year, you hit the jackpot.

Or maybe you didn't. The success stories make us all warm and
fuzzy inside. The guys like Haren, Lester, and Rivera make us sick to our
stomachs.

But the timid nature of the expert market still makes this a great
place to go and gamble. Rivera and his freakish injury aside, you're going to
get something back for your trouble with any of these pitchers, and last year
there was a 60/40 chance you were going to get a Top 10 guy.

Except forRotoman,
the experts are timid little wallflowers. Including me (the only one of these
pitchers I bought in an expert auction was Haren).

A $29 average salary for Justin Verlander? The dude earned $46 in
2011. $20 for James Shields? $26 for Weaver? I understand the hesitancy to
spend over $30 on a pitcher, but some of these guys look like money in the bank
at these prices.

Rotomanwould have cleaned up in a
hypothetical auction between him and the rest of the market. He comes out ahead
on Verlander, Price, Weaver, Felix, Shields, CC and ties on Sale and Kuroda. He
only misses out on Peavy to LABR.

Rotoman was hot last year. Not only did he get the best pitchers, he
kept you away from the expensive ones that didn't pan out. Tout Wars grabs
Rivera and LABR gets Wilson.Rotoman does
tie on Lester while getting Haren outright.

CBS must be waiting for the pitchers on this list.

Top 10 Profits, 2012 A.L. Pitchers

#

Player

$

Sal

+/-

CBS

LABR

TW

PK

2011

1

Rafael
Soriano

$21

1

21

2

1

$3

2

Jake
Peavy

$27

9

19

8

10

8

9

$6

3

Chris
Sale

$30

12

18

12

13

11

13

$11

4

Jason
Vargas

$21

5

16

7

2

5

3

$9

5

Matt
Harrison

$23

7

16

8

6

6

7

$16

6

Tommy
Milone

$17

2

15

1

2

3

5

$1

7

Wei-Yin
Chen

$17

2

15

3

1

2

3

8

Jarrod
Parker

$19

4

15

3

6

3

R1

$1

9

Hiroki
Kuroda

$27

12

15

10

14

12

14

$18

10

Glen
Perkins

$16

2

14

1

1

4

$9

Average

$22

5

16

5

6

5

6

$7

No, not particularly. They are in front on Vargas, Harrison, and
Chen, but behind on everyone else.

LABR is the aggressive buyer. They “get” Soriano, Peavy, Sale, Parker, and Kuroda.Rotomanis left with Milone and once again
with a tie on Kuroda with Tout Wars.

As typically happens, the 10 best profit makers cost less than
they earned the previous year. Pitchers like Harrison, Kuroda, and Vargas all
fit a certain profile. They don't strike out a ton of guys, so no one believes
that they'll be able to do it two years running.

These pitchers aren't the complete bottom of the barrel. At an
average salary at $5, as a group they are a cut above the super cheap endgame
pitchers. Take out the two relievers in the group and they're a little more
expensive. Five dollars isn't a lot to pay for a bargain, but it's not nothing.

Top 10 Losses, 2012 A.L. Pitchers

#

Player

$

Sal

+/-

CBS

LABR

TW

PK

2011

1

Ricky
Romero

-$5

19

-24

21

19

17

21

$27

2

Sergio
Santos

$0

18

-18

19

17

18

16

$17

3

Mariano
Rivera

$3

22

-18

21

21

23

22

$23

4

Michael
Pineda

16

-16

18

16

14

9

$19

5

Jonathan
Sanchez

-$9

7

-16

9

7

6

8

$2

6

Andrew
Bailey

$0

16

-16

17

15

16

3

$11

7

Ubaldo
Jimenez

$0

15

-15

17

16

12

14

$5

8

John
Danks

$0

13

-13

14

12

13

14

$8

9

Jon
Lester

$9

22

-13

22

24

21

24

$20

10

Brandon
League

$3

16

-13

16

15

17

15

$17

Average

$0

16

-16

17

16

16

15

$15

I was tempted to keep slappingRotoman on
the back, but he has the benefit of setting his prices later than the expert
auctions so he gets to avoid Pineda and Bailey almost entirely.

The year of the exploding reliever put a lot of relief arms into
this group. But the earnings profile of the group is almost identical to every
prior year. They earn nothing or almost nothing and cost in the mid-teens.
They're typically pitchers that get raises, and often pitchers like Jimenez or
Danks that had a bad/injury riddled year and the market is trying to buy into
the bounce back.

I remain a fan of being a top shelf pitcher in A.L.-only. Lester
and Rivera are in the losses group, but there are more pitchers in the $15-19
range. I'd rather buy an ace and a cheap arm and hope to get lucky than buy two
$15-19 pitchers. In the last three years, only three pitchers from that price
range have cracked the Top 10. It seems counterintuitive, but you're more
likely to score a big profit from a $20+ salaried pitcher.