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What do rockets in skies over Israel portend?

The firing on Thursday of two Fajr-5 missiles from Gaza towards Tel Aviv, followed on Friday by the targeting of Jerusalem with an as yet unidentified rocket type, is a potent sign of altered strategic realities in the Middle East.

It may also prove to have been a new milestone on the road away from a comprehensive solution to the Israeli-Palestinian issue and towards perpetual instability in the region.

As for the rockets themselves, they landed without harming anyone and the fact that air raid sirens sounded in Tel Aviv for the first time since Saddam Hussein's Scud missile attacks of 1991 is something of a red herring.

The really significant developments are the ability of Israel's most implacable enemies (Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in southern Lebanon) to bombard its populated centre, and the emergence of Gaza as a semi-independent entity able to garner both diplomatic and materiel support.

It has been apparent since the 2006 Lebanon war, when Hezbollah rained thousands of rockets down on northern Israel, that Israel's old calculations about using buffer zones to ensure the security of its citizens were pretty much redundant.

Now it is clear that the old notions that dominated military thinking there for decades, about retaining the lands conquered in 1967 for "strategic depth", no longer apply.

During the brief 2009 invasion of Gaza there was talk of re-occupying the northern part of the coastal strip in order to push the rocket firers further back, but now the Palestinians have obtained far longer range weapons a few kilometres either way would make no difference.

Could this actually help peace-making in that it might convince Israel that holding the West Bank is not so important? Do not expect it, for this new situation seems set to harden attitudes on both sides.

In the hands of Hamas or Hezbollah missiles can now hit most of Israel and the potential effects should not be under-estimated. These non-state actors now have the ability to close Israel's one proper international airport, and in response to Thursday's rocket firing some airlines have already been talking about suspending their services.

While the ability to bombard the "Zionist enemy" in this way creates great excitement and support for Hamas or Hezbollah on the Arab street, one can hardly lose sight of the fact that these two movements will not acknowledge Israel's right to exist, even if the Palestinian one has toyed with the idea of long term truces.

For the Israelis the last few years have seen increasing insecurity as groups in Gaza progressed from home-made Qassam rockets with a range of several kilometres through to the newly acquired Iranian-developed Fajr-5 with its range of up to 75km.

Hezbollah, which used this missile in 2006, has since acquired even longer range weapons including, persistent reports from the intelligence agencies indicate, Scud missiles.

All of this means that the frequent call to the air raid shelters, and disruption of school or economic activity that were once limited to towns like Sderot in the south of Israel or Qiryat Shmona in the north could now become general through most of the country.

Israel's 2005 withdrawal from Gaza, followed by the ouster of the Mubarak government in Egypt has allowed more advanced weapons, including shoulder-launched anti-aircraft missiles to reach the Palestinian Territory. The blockade has eased, allowing distinguished visitors such as the Emir of Qatar or Prime Minister Hisham Qandil of Egypt, who was there on Friday morning, to enter the Gaza Strip.

Following the election of a Muslim Brotherhood government in Egypt neither Israel nor the United States that could formerly rely on President Hosni Mubarak to maintain the "quarantine" of Gaza in the interests, in their view, of regional security, have been able to hold sway.

One result is the increasing self-confidence of the Hamas government in the territory under the leadership of Ismail Haniya.

Will this sense of independence and strength help or hinder reconciliation with the Palestinians under the secular leadership of Fatah in the West Bank?

The new Egyptian government has tried hard to convince the warring factions that healing this rift is the essential precursor to a meaningful peace process, but the history of this feud between Palestinian factions suggests neither that it will be easy to resolve nor that it helps much when one party feels it has the upper hand.

So those rockets falling in southern Tel Aviv could constitute another grim portent in the Middle East.

Hamas may become less amenable to compromise with Fatah, and the Israelis in their air raid shelters, seeing increasingly well-armed and implacable foes on their borders, could retreat further into a siege mentality.

Comments

Comment number 171.

F1Fan17th November 2012 - 23:35

Perhaps Hamas cares little for the people of Gaza, hiding rockets in schools and hospitals. Or perhaps they should hide them in a big red building with an X on the roof. Gazan's are the victims here, Hamas the aggressor. Everybody knows that even Gazan's are praying for Israel to carve Hamas out of Gaza with a surgical knife!

Comment number 170.

CanuckDriver17th November 2012 - 23:27

Anyone that thinks that any country would not respond if attacked with rocket or artillery fire is just not being realistic. The thugs hiding behind religion that are behind these cowardly terror tactics displayed by Hamas and Hezbollah and all the other nominally Muslim groups are just that - thugs. They deserve what they are getting.

Comment number 166.

Comment number 165.

jg4917th November 2012 - 14:32

re no. 164. I was trying to illustrate that no bomb is a good bomb and that bombs result in casualties hence the link to B'Tselem to show casualty numbers since Cast Lead on both sides. In no way am, I or was I, trying to justify arming any population. It is just how you chose to interpret my comment. Does the -1 apply to my comments of B'Tselem's article?

Comment number 162.

eddy17th November 2012 - 14:07

Israel is not in occupation of Gaza. The blockade of Gaza is by Israel AND EGYPT. Should the blockade be lifted we would see large flotilla from likes of Iran and Syria delivering not what the people want or need but yet more arms. Ironically Israel sends aid in region of 32,800 tons a week to Gaza. Israel has no beef with the people but with those firing the rockets day in day out, hamas.

Comment number 161.

F1Fan17th November 2012 - 13:56

@ Igloo White

This is why i support the "People" of Gaza, they are merely pawns. The ONLY way to resolve this is to occupy Gaza and establish rule of law, government infrastructure and alleviate poverty. Then in say 30 years the people of Gaza can transition to stable self government.

Many people would disagree with this, but they won’t be able to argue a viable alternative either.

Comment number 159.

Comment number 158.

F1Fan17th November 2012 - 13:41

The oppressed people of Syria are having to rise up and shed blood to win freedom, much like many of today’s modern countries have had to do at some point in their history. I wonder if the people of Gaza rising against the regime of Hamas would give them a better future?

Comment number 154.

Playrealfooty17th November 2012 - 13:28

F1Fan

Re comment #153, I was merely making the point that the West always blames Hamas at the same time as maintaining its 'right' to protect itself with violence. The truth is that Israel cannot continue to provoke Hamas, with the backup of far superior and overwhelming firepower, and continue to blame Hamas for the problem. Both are employing the wrong methods - Israel should take the lead.

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