Monday, October 29, 2007

Well much of the Delaware Valley received there first frost of the season last night. Some of the colder suburbs in Southern and Central NJ and Eastern PA, will likely see another frost for tonight, as temps in the colder suburbs dip to the low and mid 30's.

I've got into a heated debate over what a true pattern change really is, and what We've experienced with the rain and cooler temps (Near Avg) was nothing more than a cut off Upper Level Low spinning in the Tenn/Valley and a cool High Pressure off the NE coast, causing a baroclinic zone/Overrunning, and an avenue for tropical moisture to stream northward between the systems for a few days. This ULL then moved into Eastern Canada over the weekend after being stalled out for a few days, and phased with the Northern Stream, which remained to the north.

As this ULL phased in with the Northern Branch, it pulled the Northern Jet SE ward into the NE, thus a trough for a couple days and CAA. This is why we are getting cooler temps. But this trough rotates out and the pattern flattens back out. We will begin to warm up this week as a SW flow aloft develops. Temps will approach the Upper 60's to near 70 on Wednesday, so about 7 to 10 Degrees above avg. Overall this week should average slightly above normal.

Now let's talk about "A REAL PATTERN CHANGE"

As we all know this month has been a real blowtorch in the east with record warmth and A persistant pattern. There's been a strong Pac Jet, and GOA Low in place for much of the month. This has maintained the jet to be more zonal into the Northern US and Southern Canada, holding the Northern Branch at bay for quite a while. Also we also had a strong SE Ridge, which has helped pump the warm air into the east. The combination of this and Pacific air, resulted in very warm and dry conditions. The only thing I've see that's really changed, is the SE Ridge was kicked out by the ULL low and a brief visit of the Northern branch with a shot of seasonably cool air. Guys this is Not a pattern change, Temporary at best, because we return to warmer conditions and a SW or zonal flow in the upper levels. Not blowtorch warmth only because the SE Ridge is Gone !

Everything is once again transient, in and out, I spoke clearly about this for my second half of October forecast. There have been some changes over the past week in the Pacific signal, but please understand these change take time to transpire here in the east and downstream.

So now we can talk about the changes to take place between the 5th of November and possibly into the mid-monthtimeframe (about a 2 week period Minimum)

The slow changes now taking place in the Pacific are as follows. The Pac Jet is now relaxing some and not as strong. As I mentioned before this once strong flow blasted the Jet East, rotating around the H5 GOA low, and ejected this flow eastward into the Northern US, and Southern Canada, thus holding the Northern Branch at bay. In addition to the Pac Jet is now relaxing, The GOA, H5 low has diminished and is repositioning itself, and retrograding Northwestward to more of an Aleutian Low. This will pump a ridge into Western Canada, and allow the Northern branch to plunge southeast into the US. This then teleconnects a trough in the central and Eastern US, as we approach the 5th of November. This trough will then have a much better chance to stick and become a more permanent feature, and not just transient. The SE ridge being squashed, will also aid in the allowance of all this to come together.

The overall result will be a Colder Pattern with near and below normal temps, in the Central and Eastern US, between the 5th and 15th of November. Most of all, the Northern branch will be free and make it's charge (Something We haven't seen in the East, A carved out deep trough that sticks for a week or so, and bring cold air down from Canada.) Sorry but IMO an ULL that manufactures it cold air, and brings it down to the surface (near to slightly below normal temps) in a select region, for a few days, is not a pattern change. A transient trough resulting from that ULLpulling NE into Canada and bringing a 2 day shot of Near avg cold, Is not a pattern change. Milder air and above normal temps following for this week, is not a pattern change.

The pattern change will likely take place and be around the 5th of November. This then lasts into around mid month. This my friends is a True Pattern change, and the results will be a trough in the Central and Eastern US for a 1 to 2 week period, along with colder and stormier conditions, during this time. The details with these change will be discussed as we approach that timeframe.

The bottom line is this: IMO and please respect it, If there's no upper level support for more than a week or two period, it's not a Full pattern change ! The Northern Branch has not been involved or carved out any large trough anywhere in the States to this date. Temps have not reversed, just went to near normal values from now until tomorrow, then we warm to above normal for a few days, then back to normal towards the weekend. These are seasonal conditions or a normal stepdown of the seasons.

Because we get rains for a few days caused by the factors I alluded too, and go from much above to normal, is nothing more than what it should be. Remember this guys, we were very fortunate to get much needed rains and closer to normal contitions from last weeks setup, it was all together a regional event. Upper level lows do this, when they become cut off or undercut the mainstream, not a true pattern change IMO, because it's all regional.

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Forecaster: John Ruggiano

AKA: Ruggie (RUGGIE WEATHER)

INTRODUCTION AND BIO

My name is John Ruggiano and I now live in Lynchburg, VA . I was born and raised in the Southern NJ Region, other than living in Lynchburg, Va for 10 years, I've lived in Southern NJ most of my life. I first took an interest in weather at a young age, (6 Years Old) and ever since then, it's basically became a big part of my life. My interest became so great that by the time I was around 10 years old I was doing the weather in front of my grade school class and on the school's intercom each morning. In High School I had my own weather board, and everyone, including my teachers called me the school weatherman, thus "RUGGIE WEATHER" became my new name. Over the years, I've had several newspaper articles done on me, along with many visits, and radio broadcasts, with the PHL & ACY National Weather Service's. I've really started forecasting during my teenage years, but now with the information at hand, and the internet technology, My forecasting, both short and long range, has accelerated to a new level.

MY WEATHER BACKGROUND

I've been forecasting weather for over 30 Years and I'm especially familiar with the Climate of "The Delaware Valley". During the past 15 years, I've taken on more challenging tasks, such as Mid and Long range Winter forecasting, along with more Regional predictions of Winter Events, for the Eastern half of the nation. This has all been very exciting, and I've met, and talked with many Professional Meteorologist, and weather Hobbyist like myself. I'm basically a self taught forecaster who has studied the science by reading books and material's too increase my knowledge, along with many years of experience, by trial and error. I am not a Meteorologist with a degree, but I do consider my self a: "Forecaster or Amateur Meteorologist"

IN CLOSING

I will continue to challenge myself to better my forecasting, both in mid and long Range winter forecasting, with winter forecasting, IMO being my specialty. I'll also continue to challenge myself with predicting and studying Severe Weather threats such as Spring and Summer Thunderstorms. In addition, following and tracking hurricane's is something I've always enjoyed doing, so during Hurricane season, I hope to also do some write up's. If you have any comments or questions, please contact me at: Ruggieweather@gmail.com