The disturbance that we have been following in our summaries is slowly getting better organized. The weak low moved across the Virgin Islands about 36 hours ago moving west-southwest.

The low is centered near 15.5N/70.7W or about 240 miles south-southeast of Port-au-Prince, Haiti. It appears to be heading west or slightly north of west now. The low level circulation is apparent again as upper-air winds have stripped the convection to the east. Winds aloft are likely to become more favorable for development in the next day or two.

Heavy convection has steadily developed over the last several days in the eastern Caribbean. This is due to an upper-air low over Hispaniola and very diffluent flow over the eastern Caribbean. Heavy showers continue from Puerto Rico to the Leewards. A Hurricane Hunter recon is scheduled to investigate Sunday.

Forecast models take this system northwest, crossing western or central Cuba in several days, then near or east of south Florida. This is still in the early stages. No need to panic. It would be a good idea to follow its progress though.

This disturbance is still looking better organized. Although we won't know for sure until visible satellite imagery is available, the center looks closer to the convection again. The unsettle weather has actually expanded some. Cloud tops have cooled with a very impressive burst just east of the apparent center.

Most forecast models now take the system over central or eastern Cuba in a few days and recurve it just east of south Florida into the northern Bahamas.

Saturday Night Update
This is a short reply to our discussion of just about 15 minutes ago. NHC has named the disturbance td 16. Tropical Storm watches are up for Cuba and Warnings for Haiti. We will likely have tropical storm Noel by Sunday morning.

Sunday Early Morning Update
The convection continues to explode over and to the east of the system. It is really tough to know where the exact center is, especially without recon or visible satellite. It looks as though the convection is now over what may be the center. NHC may upgrade to storm even at the next advisory.

Sunday Morning Update
The convection is going ape! NHC for the 8am advisory said that the depression looked disorganized. Granted, as we mentioned several hours ago, it it REALLY tough to locate a center a night under these circumstances. Now that the first couple of visible satellite images are in, it looks like the center must be under the cloud cover. The convection is very deep and the cloud shield is solid. It probably is a t.s. at this point. The Hurricane Hunters will not doubt investigate today. We believe that NHC will upgrade to t.s. today too. Maybe after they see a the visible images or even wait for the recon a little later. The forecast is relatively unchanged. northeast of Jamaica, then along the coast of Cuba, before turning north in south or central Cuba then across the central or northern Bahamas. Keep in mind the models to tend to have a tough time with the formative stages of a tropical cyclone.

Sunday Afternoon Update
NHC is asleep on this one. There is no doubt that this is a tropical storm. The convection is solid over the center of circulation. The visible now shows that the circulation is under the cloud deck. Not only is this a t.s., it probably is at least 50 mph sustained.

Sunday Evening Update
It appears that Noel may have weakened some. Upper-air wind shear has increased. The low level center is either just on the west side of the convection or on the edge of it. There is still a ton of convection and the flood threat remains high for Haiti and the Dominican Republic, especially the mountainous regions. The latest track info seems to pull Noel farther eastward. NHC has moved the track to Haiti to eastern Cuba to the Central Bahamas which seems reasonable to us. The trend has been east for the past 12 hours.

Heavy rains continue to pound the south coast of the Dominican Republic...

especially from near Santo Domingo to Cabo Beata (the far south point). It is really difficult to determine where the center of circulation is again. The main threat is life threatening flash floods and mudslides in the Dominican Republic and into Haiti. It is possible that locally more than 20" of rain may fall. Noel is slowly moving north-northwest and should move over southwest Haiti by the morning hours. The high mountains will disrupt the circulation, but it will probably reorganize over the Bahamas. Models (the ones which have initiated correctly) tend to drift Noel over the central and then perhaps northern Bahamas over the next 3-4 days. It should then recurve as a front picks it up. Beach erosion and rip currents should build on the east coast of Florida this week.

Also, continue to watch the progress of Noel for later in the week in Bermuda.

The Dominican Republic took The brunt of the heavy rain which is still falling. After looking at the first few visible satellite images it appears that the the center is now north of the coast of Haiti - southeast of the Turks and Caicos. If this is the case, Noel's track will be shifted eastward even more.

The models have been too far west from the start. If you recall, the original tracks were south of Cuba! It shows how models sometimes just can't be too heavily relied on. Looking at current data is best, especially in a system like this one. If indeed, Noel has reformed north of Haiti, NHC will be adjusting their track farther east again at 11am.

NHC has placed the low - or at least mid-level circulation north of Haiti as we mentioned earlier. A brief correction - we said north of Haiti and southeast of the Turks and Caicos, we meant north of Haiti and southeast of the southeastern Bahamas.

NHC's track was adjusted a bit eastward. Now the track is through the southeastern Bahamas to east of Andros and Grand Bahama Island over the next three days.

As Noel moved off of the coast of Haiti this morning, the mountains of Hispaniola had disrupted the circulation. The low level circulation has become better defined again and is half-way between Great Inagua, Bahamas and the eastern tip of Cuba.

Because the convection has been stripped near the center, it may try to move a bit farther west again. Right now NHC's track looks to be just east of the plotted course. Any westward track shift should be able to be determined over the next several hours as convection tries to make a comeback near the core.

Upper-air winds show good outflow in all but the southwest quadrant. Some dry air is still trying to disrupt the center of circulation. That is what we will be watching closely for the rest of the day.

NHC has adjusted their track slight farther west. Models are in better agreement taking Noel near Andros then recurving out to sea. The visible satellite has confrimed more of a western course. We are a bit concerned that even though the models don't show it, that the track may be pushed closer to the Florida coast by a few more days. Either way, expect beach erosion and strong rip currents on the Florida coast.

The I.R. and water vapor satellite show the dry air intrusion fading away. The center of circulation is now just a bit off the Cuba coast and south-southwest of Great Inagua, Bahamas. Heavy rain continues in Hispaniola and is increasing in the eastern Bahamas.

Recon found a slightly lower pressure, so NHC raised winds up to 55 mph sustained. Deep convection is spreading into the central Bahamas. It is also now building around the center north of Cuba. It looks like Noel is going to make a run at strengthening. Expect heavy rain, gusty winds, high surf in the Bahamas. This weather will spread over southeastern Florida by the next 24 hours. A tropical storm watch may be issued in south Florida at the 5am or 11 am advisory. Expect beach erosion with increasing heavy showers and gusty winds on the east coast of Florida.

Most models now take Noel wnw then recurve it north over Andros Island then northeast over Grand Bahama or the Abacos then out to sea. Notice that there is not much room for error. A slight jog west and it would be very close to the Florida coast.