One Theory About Why The Tech Startup Scene Is Boring Right Now

TechCrunch
Technology's loudest, and most entertaining, blogger, Michael Arrington has been pretty quiet all year.

Arrington, as you may recall, was forced out of TechCrunch, the tech site he founded, when he decided to be a full-time venture capitalist. There was a lot of noise from Arrington, and others in the tech press, about his ouster.

Yesterday, Arrington fessed up to why he's been so quiet: "It's just about 2013 and I gotta say, I'm a little bored... I just don't see the tons of crazy new ideas that I did a few years ago."

He says that as an investor, "things are just peachy," and there are plenty of investment options. But as a blogger, he's feeling let down by the tech scene: "Yeah, the iPhone and Android are great. But seriously, look at the top headline grabbers in tech news in 2012. Apple. Google. Facebook. Microsoft. Christ. It might as well still be 2007."

The problem seems to be that entrepreneurs aren't pursuing many audacious ideas. Everything feels slightly incremental right now.

My personal theory is that the big world changing stuff requires massive amounts of capital at a truly high risk. For instance, something like Google Glass, or Tesla's electric car, would require massive investment and it might not work out.

Investors have been spoiled by lean startups that have soft landings at Google and Facebook. If you really want to work on an outrageous idea, you probably can't lean on established mobile platforms. You need to create your own, which is really expensive and doesn't have an obvious/simple exit plan.

Look at Kleiner Perkins. It went after audacious ideas when it started funding green tech ideas. Those almost all blew up in its face and it missed out on the rise of the social web. This led to the cool-kids in tech snickering at Kleiner for having whiffed. Now it's back in the consumer tech game looking for the next Facebook.

There's a reason Arrington is bored. It's because we've created an environment that rewards boring startups.