Mr. Obama had not notified his choice — or any of those not selected — of his decision as of late Monday, advisers said. Going into the final days, Mr. Obama was said to be focused mainly on three candidates: Senator Evan Bayh of Indiana, Governor Tim Kaine of Virginia and Senator Joseph R. Biden Jr. of Delaware…

Mr. Obama’s advisers said he reached his decision while on vacation in Hawaii. They said it marked the end of what proved to be an unexpectedly intense process, condensed because he did not want to start actively vetting potential running mates before Mrs. Clinton quite the race in June. By contrast, Mr. McCain, who had wrapped up the Republican nomination months earlier, began his process in late spring…

The Obama campaign has cautioned against reading anything into his schedule, saying it could be changed in an instant to accommodate the plan to introduce the running mate.

Aides said the announcement would come at the earliest on Wednesday morning, and no later than Friday.

Mr. Obama’s advisers said they wanted to time the announcement to get the maximum publicity going into the convention, after a stretch in which Mr. Obama was on vacation in Hawaii and Mr. McCain made good use of having the political stage largely to himself.

Ed speculated this morning that “maximum publicity” probably means Thursday so that he can carry the buzz over to Friday and then ride it through the weekend. I agree. Okay, kids, time to show your cards: Who will it be? The smart money says Biden, who’s just back from Georgia with a feather in his cap and whose foreign policy advisor, Tony Blinken, was coincidentally “vacationing” last week in … Hawaii. Even so, leaking the names of Bayh, Biden, and Kaine seems odd when Obama’s playing everything else so close to the vest. Almost seems like a deliberate decoy, designed to draw us away from the actual nominee so that when the announcement drops it’ll go off like a nuclear blast. You don’t suppose…

Update: Don’t know where Ace is getting this — probably from the panel on Brit Hume’s show — but evidently Bill Kristol says it’s Kaine, Biden, and Sebelius. Likelihood that BK is simply trying to sow disgruntlement among the Hillary diehards by throwing Sebelius in there: High.

Update: No surprise that a plurality of Democratic delegates prefer Hillary as VP but it is a surprise how small that plurality is — just 28 percent (which is still 22 points better than the runner-up, Joe Biden).

Update: Did CNN spill the beans on Bayh being the pick or did someone doctor a screenshot in Photoshop? You make the call! The Freepers had this too, for what it’s worth, although the source may be the same. Verdict, judging from the misspellings in the CNN “article” and the fact that I never saw this in my RSS reader: Hoax.

Update: Let’s put it this way. It had better be a hoax, because the alternative explanation — that CNN figured out the pick, ran the story, and then scrubbed it to do Obama a solid — would set a new gold standard of what it means to be in the tank for Barry O.

Update: A few more good catches on the Bayh screenshot by the Jed Report. It’s a hoax.

As a Virginian, I’ll laugh my head off if he chooses Kaine. I’ve been saying all along that Mark Warner would be a much better choice than Kaine, but I don’t think Obama ever seriously considered him.

Yossarian on August 18, 2008 at 8:34 PM

Me too. If he picks Kaine, we’ll be shut of him here in VA. Kaine, btw, is a major dweeb. He will make a Obama look even cooler than he already does. Too bad that’s not what Obama’s weakness is. That would be inexperience. And Kaine, well he’s been gov for about ten minutes–a perfect match!!!! I’ve never gotten what people see in Kaine. Now, Mark Warner–boy are we lucky HE didn’t get nominated. That guy has POTUS written all over him. Money, smarts, and skills–he’s got the package.

Seriously, though, he can’t pick Hillary and hope to have any chance. The one person he could choose to turn out the Republican base, plus all of Bill’s baggage, as well as her own. She is a stronger personality, and he has to know he couldn’t control her or Bill. I am betting on Hillary-lite Sebelius.

Last night I was thinking “What would the worst choice be, for me as a Conservative?” And my first thought was … Hillary. It was frightening to think of how this could bring together the Dem party and solidify certain states for Obama, and put that lying snake of a Clinton right back in the debates (VP anyway), with her convincing half-truths, confident little laughs, and mean-spirited backstabbing ways — which, as we know, are very effective. And just think of all the face-time she’d get on national TV, and what a perfect “tough guy” to say all the bad things about McCain and his VP, so that Ob could keep his hands clean. I had a restless few hours until I realized that just suggesting a Clinton back in the White House (much less Bill) would be enough to make many Americans cringe, and of course it would be soooo fun to play all the little snide remarks she made about B’rack during the primaries. So now I’m back to thinking the big O will pick some obscure idiot (can’t have the VP candidate outshining the P candidate, says little wife Michelle) and, aside from a number of Black Americans voting for him just because of his skin color, all will be well … assuming McCain makes a good conservative pick, of course.

Seems all us Virginians feel about the same way, leastways the ones who hang out around here. Kaine would probably ensure that BO loses Virginia.

Oldnuke on August 18, 2008 at 10:29 P

Yep, this Virginian agrees. However, one thing bothers me. If 0Bama picks Kaine, then we would be shed of Kaine IF 0Bama wins. Then our repub Lt governor would take office as governor. That would be a good thing for Virgina. But what would be good for Virginia would not be good for the country.

Yeah, I hear ya. We’re between the devil and the deep blue sea all round. I’ll accept Kaine as governor for the rest of his term. We’re going to have to make another choice this fall between ‘goofy’ Gilmore and Warner. Can’t stand Gilmore don’t want to pull the lever for a democrat who’ll stand hand in glove with Reid and the rest. Guess I’ll vote for Gilmore and take a Pepsid afterwards. He can do a lot less damage to Virginia as a Senator than as governor.

Obama needs a VP that will bring him a state, into play, does Obama worry about Delaware? I don’t think so, he needs a state that will bring him delegates so Virginia? He isn’t doing well in the North of Virginia. Hillary pulled in Indiana so maybe Bayh.

Obama needs states to win. None of these folks. have what Chris Matthews refers to as a tingle quality BG

Just my opinion, of course, but Kaine won’t give him Virginia. Quite the opposite. Mark Warner would have but he won’t pick Warner. My guess is it won’t be Kaine either. I think it’ll be a woman to assuage, in his mind, the insult for beating out Hillary. Whoever it is it’ll be fun.

My staunch liberal college mater kept saying he hopes it’s Biden. Based on the base and the statement he made that, even though he’s an old white guy he brings with him a lot of experience, my money’s on Biden as well.