Stevens continues to tinker with Celtics lineup in 18-4 start

Wednesday

Nov 29, 2017 at 7:22 PMNov 29, 2017 at 8:07 PM

Brendan Kurie @BrendanKurieSCT

Brad Stevens loves to tinker.

For the most part, that’s not a bad thing. The Celtics head coach appreciates experimentation. His search for something new often births brilliance, a prime example being his in-bounds and last-second plays (albeit the latter is less important once you employ Kyrie Irving).

The Celtics own the league’s best record, at 18-4 heading into Thursday night’s showdown with the up-and-coming 76ers, and they’ve been the league’s best defensive team from the get-go. There aren’t many nits to pick, especially with the way Stevens has coached.

Which brings us back to the tinkering. Following a near-complete roster overhaul and the loss of a significant cog five minutes into the season, experimentation was to be expected. Then Marcus Morris returned after missing the first eight games and opened another decision tree of options.

Now that we’ve hit the quarter-pole of the season, it’s about time for Stevens and staff to start settling on a few consistent groups and boosting their on-court chemistry with more shared minutes.

Let’s dive deep into how the C’s have been divvying up minutes thus far.

Each team plays about 4,000 minutes in an NBA regular season, and in Stevens' first season, he only played one five-man unit together for more than 125 of those, while — and this is mostly on Danny Ainge — no five-man unit appeared in more than 28 games together. (Fun fact: The most used lineup that year was Avery Bradley, Jordan Crawford, Jeff Green, Brandon Bass and Jared Sullinger. Three of those guys are now out of the league.)

It was basically the same story the next year, with constant roster turnover combining with Stevens' re-shuffling leading to just one five-some totaling more than 165 minutes.

It was in Stevens' third season that he finally fell in love with a lineup and deployed it regularly. It helped that the roster was more stasis, but still Stevens found himself playing Isaiah Thomas, Bradley, Jae Crowder, Sullinger and Amir Johnson for 723 minutes in 60 games — nearly 300 more minutes than he's given any other group in his four-plus seasons.

Last year, he didn't fall in love with any grouping; the proverbial starting five — Thomas, Bradley, Crowder, Al Horford, Johnson — did play nearly 12 minutes per game together, but in just 36 games and the closing unit — Thomas, Smart, Bradley, Crowder, Horford — only teamed up for 135 minutes in 32 games. Before you cry foul, everyone in that group played in at least 55 games.

This year, there are actually three lineups on pace for more than 300 minutes, one of which — Irving, Smart, Brown, Jayson Tatum, Horford — has appeared in more than half the team's games.

Still, that group, which is tied for the team lead with 85 minutes together, is just 39th in the league in shared minutes. For comparison, Tom Thibodeau has unleashed Jeff Teague, Andrew Wiggins, Jimmy Butler, Taj Gibson and Karl-Anthony Towns for 415 minutes already this season. The Pistons have used Reggie Jackson, Bradley, Tobias Harris, Stanley Johnson and Andre Drummond for 273 minutes in three fewer games.

Part of the explanation for Stevens’ limited use of the same five-man units is he often deploys smaller groupings interchangeably. He’ll have two- or three-man packages, mixing and matching the other guys, ever-searching for some perfect combination — he loves the threesome of Smart, Brown and Horford, and often dials up a backcourt of Smart and Rozier when Irving is off the floor.

So far, the closest Stevens has come to perfection is the group of Irving, Smart, Brown, Tatum and Horford, who are plus-31 in 85 minutes, which is 13th in the league. Notably, if you swap the Marcuses, Morris inserted for Smart, you have a minus-21 lineup over the same 85 minutes. (Fun Fact No. 2: The Rockets’ James Harden, Eric Gordon, Trevor Ariza, Ryan Anderson and Clint Capela lead the league at plus-93 in 179 minutes.)

In fact, the Celtics struggle more with Morris on the floor than any of their other regulars besides Semi Ojeleye. Morris has a -11.7 net rating on the season. On the flip side, Horford (14.6), Smart (13.0) and Brown (12.5) have led the way.

Since Morris’ return 14 games ago, he’s started nine times and sat out twice on the second night of back-to-backs. In that time, Baynes has started five times and Theis started once (Baynes and Morris opened together against the Hornets).

Monday’s Pistons game, the first home loss in six weeks, was a real head-scratcher, as Baynes, ostensibly signed to body up the biggest opposing centers, played just 12 minutes against Drummond, who beasted his way to 26 points and 22 rebounds. Baynes has seen his run decline recently; he’s played 13 or fewer minutes in six of the last eight games, after playing 20 or more in eight of the previous 11. Meanwhile, Theis’ minutes have been similarly erratic, bouncing between three and 21 in the last six games, which came after a stretch where he’d seemed to settle into a 10-18 minute role, depending on how close the game was.

Meanwhile, Morris’ minutes haven’t shifted — he’s been between 21 and 26 in 11 straight games — meaning Stevens has been going smaller, which seems a little counterintuitive after the Celtics’ 16-game winning streak came in large part to their success on the boards.

We’ll see how long Stevens’ leash is with Morris, as he’s the most skilled of the non-Horford big men, and the most switchable on defense, but also the most prone to taking bad shots, especially long two-pointers.

As I said earlier, if questionable big-man rotations are the most pressing concern entering December for a team that’s won more than 80 percent of its games and has lost just twice in the past 42 days, you’re in a good place.

We just might have to remind Stevens of that as he continues to tinker.