Thursday, October 23, 2008

One of the most concerning aspects of recent data is evidence that, in some places, the Arctic Ocean is losing sea ice 30 years ahead of current IPCC predictions.

Summer sea ice is now forecasted to completely disappear in the summer months sometime between 2013 and 2040 -- something which hasn't happened for over a million years.

The report's author, geoscientist Dr Tina Tin told CNN: "Arctic sea ice is melting much faster than everybody had been expecting. Why? Well, maybe it's because the positive feedback mechanisms have kicked in much quicker than we have been able to quantify."

4 comments:

I know I'll probably catch flack for this from others and from Mac, but I'm really beginning to wonder about the whole climate change debate. Every year for the last six years it seems like some scientist every year has new doomsday predictions, dates are thrown around, and we're warned yet again to change our thinking on the products we use, the gas we put in our car, and to stop clubbing baby seals to death.

So the Arctic ice is melting. Nothing I do in the next 20 years of my life is going to irrevocably change that. I can't afford to travel to the Arctic and duct-tape the ice back together, nor do I have the evil-genius ability to launch a huge shield into space that would deflect the sun.

I'll admit it gets alarming when the European Alps go without snow for an entire season. I'm sure there's other evidence I just can't think of because I'm only halfway through with my coffee. But, I can't help but feel a little jaded, a little cynical, about the global warming debate. It's beginning to feel as politically charged as every other issue, particularly because we apparently have so many people working on it, so many theories, and very little consensus except for the fact that something is going on with the world's climate. I suppose I'd be more convinced if I started hearing the same thing from a lot of different people; kind of like what they do with religion.

"It's beginning to feel as politically charged as every other issue, particularly because we apparently have so many people working on it, so many theories, and very little consensus except for the fact that something is going on with the world's climate."

Sorry, Tony, but there is a great deal of scientific consensus that the average global temperature is rising, and will continue to do so. 11 of the last 12 years have the hottest average temperature since 1850, when regular measurements began worldwide. The average temperature in the Arctic last year was the warmest on record.

See: www.ipcc.ch for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) website and related reports. The IPCC is the oldest, largest, multinational climate research group on the planet. They won last year's Nobel Peace Prize "for their efforts to build up and disseminate greater knowledge about man-made climate change, and to lay the foundations for the measures that are needed to counteract such change." 2500 scientists from over 130 countries are in agreement with the IPCC's findings.

See: http://tinyurl.com/2b6q2m for the most recent comprehensive IPCC report, from December of last year.

There is no longer any real debate, political or otherwise, among serious people and scientists about the global warming crisis, and its being largely caused by the over 70 million tons of greenhouse gases human activity releases into the atmosphere every day. And that amount increases every year.

So, read the report noted above. Do a little research. You will find there is nearly complete scientific consensus, and quickly growing political agreement, based on decades of research and continuous measurements, that show clearly the atmosphere is continuing to warm in an anomalous, increasingly rapid, artificially-caused manner.

Human industrial activity is the primary source. The likely consequences, as difficult to believe or accept as the scientific findings suggest, are likely to be catastrophic, and may end in the extinction of the human species. Sorry to be the bearer of grim tidings, but the facts, and reality, are best not ignored.

Regardless of what Exxon/Mobil, et al, and their paid propaganda front groups would have you believe. My comments are not meant as "flack," but just simple fact. I, too, wish it were not so, but the evidence is truly overwhelming.

Oh, and Tony: note that the article linked to Mac's post only suggests, based on the latest data, that the IPCC is too conservative in its estimates--the warming process, loss of reflective arctic ice, and rise in sea levels is accelerating faster than last year's IPCC summary report indicated would occur, based on measurement data gathered just this year.

So, there's no argument about what direction our climate is headed; the only question now is how much more rapidly than our best data would suggest and our best models have predicted. The feedback mechanisms noted in the article may be moving faster than science can currently even predict. That's not good.

"Frankly, there's nothing worse (aside from death, global famine, nuclear disaster and all-round armageddon) than seeing players in the UFO field fawning all over their peers at conferences as they seek acceptance into the ufological sand-pit by saying the 'right thing' to the 'right people.' Thankfully, there's none of that in Mac's world."