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All scenarios that make Aegon the real deal involve last minute baby swapping and other conspiracies which only make sense if someone had prepared for/foreseen Rhaegar being killed at the Trident and King's Landing to fall.

IMHO this is the "The Man Who Shot Liberty Valance" moment of the series. If told the truth (Aegon is fake) the people still want to believe the legend (Aegon is the son of Rhaegar who survived) because they are most likely fed up with the game of thrones and the wars so they prefer to get back to Targaryen rule then to endure more of this conflict.

A real life base that triggered this storyline could have been the presumed princess Anastasia claiming to be a survivor of her family being executed.

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All scenarios that make Aegon the real deal involve last minute baby swapping and other conspiracies which only make sense if someone had prepared for/foreseen Rhaegar being killed at the Trident and King's Landing to fall.

Is it so strange to imagine that Rhaegar/Elia had a contingency plan in place? We saw in the run-up to the Battle of the Blackwater a few things that lead me to think that a baby-swap is not so far-fetched.

IN ACOK, as Stannis and the rest of his army was on the march to take KL, the Lannisters began to make plans in the event the city fell. One such plan was the removal of Tommen from the city, basically the exact same contingency the loyalists put in place (assuming Aegon is real).

Once the loyalists realized that Rhaegar had been defeated on the Trident, I think its not only possible - but also makes sense - for a baby swap to go down, removing Rhaegar's heir from the capitol. Rhaegar's defeat at the Trident doesn't even really matter when it comes to the protection of the future of the Targaryan dynasty - of which must have been planned prior to the Trident. A plan to change the babies could have even been initiated by Rhaegar PRIOR to the events at the Trident. He could have realized that there was basically a 50/50 chance of his return, and put plans in place to prevent the death of his heir regardless of what was going to happen.

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But if they had a contingency plan - wouldn't it make even more sense for Rhaegar to plan an escape for ALL of his family, and not just Aegon?

I agree. It also makes more sense for Varys not to replace Aegon, because you wouldn't want to cast doubt on an adult Aegon to show up later. It would also make more sense to smuggle out both his mother and sister at the same time.

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I agree. It also makes more sense for Varys not to replace Aegon, because you wouldn't want to cast doubt on an adult Aegon to show up later. It would also make more sense to smuggle out both his mother and sister at the same time.

If he was not replaced, then Robert would not rest until he find the missing baby. Replacing him ensures his survival

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After the Battle of the Bells it was clear that, and i quote, "The young stormlord was not a mere rebel lord to be crushed at a whim, but the greatest threat to the Targaryen dynasty since Daemon Blackfyre." I think we can all agree Rhaegar is a pretty smart guy, so why not have a plan to have his son and heir taken from the capital in the event of his defeat. There would be nothing between KL and the Rebel host.

As to why he would not take his whole family away. Aerys had his queen(who was pregnant) and Viscerys shipped to dragonstone. He kept Elia and her children with him because he thought it would keep the Dornish loyal knowing he held her. He went so far as to tell Lewan Martell he was holding them close to ensure his loyalty. He also wanted Jamie kept close to him as a hostage against Tywin. Varys knew that Aegon would be killed shall the war be lost because with a Targaryen heir remainin the lords could still refuse to bow to a new King. Elia and her daughter should have been safe because they pose no threat to the line of succession. Enter Gregor Clegane.

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As to why he would not take his whole family away. Aerys had his queen(who was pregnant) and Viscerys shipped to dragonstone. He kept Elia and her children with him because he thought it would keep the Dornish loyal knowing he held her. He went so far as to tell Lewan Martell he was holding them close to ensure his loyalty. He also wanted Jamie kept close to him as a hostage against Tywin. Varys knew that Aegon would be killed shall the war be lost because with a Targaryen heir remainin the lords could still refuse to bow to a new King. Elia and her daughter should have been safe because they pose no threat to the line of succession. Enter Gregor Clegane.

Precisely. And we know that towards then end of his life, Rhaegar was coming to the realization that his father was unstable. Knowing that Aerys would most likely demand the presence of Elia and her children in KL, the plan would then be set in motion to ensure the life of Rhaegar's heir. No offense to Elia and Rhaenys, but they just weren't as important.

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If he was not replaced, then Robert would not rest until he find the missing baby. Replacing him ensures his survival

This would make sense. To a point.

But once it's clear Varys has retained his position in King's Landing, and will be at the head of any attempt to assassinate exiled Targaryens, and once it's clear that Jon Arryn is advocating Robert leave the remaining Targaryens be, why continue to hide him?

Why not, at that point, do what is planned in A Dance with Dragons, and unite Aegon with Viserys and Daenerys to boost his legitimacy? The longer you leave him 'off the radar', the louder the claim pretender will be when they reveals himself. Unite him with his kin who are unquestionably Targaryen.

That is, unless, that you don't have the genuine article, you don't particularly care about working Daenerys and Viserys into your plans until Daenerys gains dragons, and you're looking to put a Blackfyre on the throne.

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Precisely. And we know that towards then end of his life, Rhaegar was coming to the realization that his father was unstable. Knowing that Aerys would most likely demand the presence of Elia and her children in KL, the plan would then be set in motion to ensure the life of Rhaegar's heir. No offense to Elia and Rhaenys, but they just weren't as important.

I can see Rhaegar having such a backup plan, but i remember reading that he did not trust Varys. So I doubt he would have included him in the plan.

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Yes this is true - however Varys may have had his own backup plan, which was then initiated once Rhaegar fell at the Trident. Varys must have clearly seen and understood the instability of Aerys, therefore he could have put in place a plan for the future. "The big fish eat the little fish, and I keep swimming."

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First, let's look at Aerys and Rhaegar, and how they were thinking just prior to the Battle of the Trident. Aerys was mad, but he thought to keep his family safe, except for Rhaegar. He sent his wife and son to Dragonstone for safe keeping, but insisted on keeping Elia, Rhaenys, and Aegon close to ensure the cooperation of Dorne and its troops. No one dared oppose the mad king, even Rhaegar was careful. Rhaegar certainly expected to return vistoriously from defeating Robert and his armies, and was already planning on making changes regarding the throne. He had no thoughts of possible threats to his family at the Red Keep, as Aerys demanded.

Now taking a very careful look at timing of events leading up to the war, it becomes apparent that Elia became pregnant very near the time of Harrenhal, at nearly the same time as Ashara is presumed to have been dishonored. We know that Elia is sickly and spent six months bedridden after the birth of Rhaenys, and that she was looking her heathiest in a long time at Harrenhal. Ser Barristan remembers a stillborn girl, but I suspect that is the child that Elia delivered, while Ashara's product of dishonor was a healthy boy. Keep in mind that Elia is declared unfit for further heir production, and certainly giving Rhaegar a stillborn daughter would add insult to injury. Ashara's bastard certainly would not have a good life, unless the girls could pull of the old switheroo. At least a healthy male heir would soften the blow of loss of production from Elia.

Enter Varys, he knows that the Lannisters are up to no good when they knock at the city gates. He probably knows of Aerys' plans to burn King's Landing, and can do nothing about it. He can rescure a child from King's Landing and place him in Aegon's crib, while shipping Aegon off to Essos to his friend Illyrio. He may or may not know about Ashara's secret, but it sure seems that he had a reason to ask her to raise the child.

How did the baby Aegon acquire Targaryen looks? There are two possible sources at Harrenhal, and it does certainly appear that Rhaegar may have been above that. On the other hand we know that Aerys was a lusty old bastard, and had a penchant for rape.

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I agree. It also makes more sense for Varys not to replace Aegon, because you wouldn't want to cast doubt on an adult Aegon to show up later. It would also make more sense to smuggle out both his mother and sister at the same time.

It is easier to replace a baby boy then replace all three of them. If Elia have a choice all three of them dies or let one go, I think she will choose for aegon to be swapped. It is possible for Aegon to be the real deal since Rhaegar believed in the prophecy, what is the point of Rhaegar believing if he will just allow Aegon to die? He believes his son is TPTWP. Realistically if we are on the situation we would make a back up plan. I think Rhaegar would do this.

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It's not that I think he's fake, its just that my bullshit radar was going off the charts when I first found out. It just seems like one massive trolling attempt by Martian, where he will provide so much compelling evidence for it being true then in Book 6 he'll pull out the "You've been rick rolled" card.

I'm not falling for it.

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It is easier to replace a baby boy then replace all three of them. If Elia have a choice all three of them dies or let one go, I think she will choose for aegon to be swapped. It is possible for Aegon to be the real deal since Rhaegar believed in the prophecy, what is the point of Rhaegar believing if he will just allow Aegon to die? He believes his son is TPTWP. Realistically if we are on the situation we would make a back up plan. I think Rhaegar would do this.

Rhaegar believed in the dragon having three heads. If he chose to go against hiis father, King Aerys, to protect Aegon, why not Rhaenys? It is quite clear that he believes that he will win the battle. It is quite clear that he expects to make changes when he returns. It is also quite clear that he won't go against his father's wishes by replacing Jaime. It is almost certain that Rhaegar would not make a back up plan with regards to Aegon or the children.

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It is almost certain that Rhaegar would not make a back up plan with regards to Aegon or the children.

I think your misunderstanding the gravity of the situation KL was facing prior to the Trident. Just because Rhaegar had confidence in his win over the rebels does NOT mean there still could not have been a contingency plan in place. Also - just because theres a possibility that Rhaegar didn't initiate the process by which Aegon was taken from KL, doesn't mean it wasn't initiated by the countless number of people who had a strong interest in maintaining the Targaryan dynasty, or just somebody (like Varys) who is diabolical and already planning 15-20 years down the line.

We also know that Rhaegar believed his son was the PTWP - providing further evidence as to why he would place an outsized importance on him rather than the rest of the family.

With regards to why he didn't spirit Rhaenys (or Elia for that matter) out of the capitol - I think by now we know how much importance is placed on a MALE heir. Not that Rhaegar (or whoever made the ultimate decision to make the swap) didn't care about his daughter, but the real importance lay with the continuation of the male line.

@DaeneryStormBorn got it right a few posts above:

It is easier to replace a baby boy then replace all three of them. If Elia have a choice all three of them dies or let one go, I think she will choose for aegon to be swapped. It is possible for Aegon to be the real deal since Rhaegar believed in the prophecy, what is the point of Rhaegar believing if he will just allow Aegon to die? He believes his son is TPTWP. Realistically if we are on the situation we would make a back up plan. I think Rhaegar would do this.

Here's what I ultimately think: Aegon is the legit son of Rhaegar/Elia, however he's not the son that Rhaegar believed was the PTWP. Rhaegar misread the prophecy, not realizing that he would soon have another son (Jon) and THAT son was the one to actually fulfill the prophecy.

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Here's what I ultimately think: Aegon is the legit son of Rhaegar/Elia, however he's not the son that Rhaegar believed was the PTWP. Rhaegar misread the prophecy, not realizing that he would soon have another son (Jon) and THAT son was the one to actually fulfill the prophecy.

As for your first points, they really are an interpretation that you want to put in that5 has absolutely no support in the text, and is refuted specifically by what we know from the text. King Aerys, the Mad King, insisted that Jaime remain as his Kingsguard, and Rhaegar refused to change that order for Jaime. King Aerys also insisted that Elia and her children remain in the Red Keep, show something that indicates that Rhaegar or indeed anyone would go against the Mad King's decrees then we can discuss it. Until that comes up, keep in mind that it was a certain and painful death that followed even a minor insult to King Aerys.

I don't think for a minute that fAegon is Rhaegar's son, it is all too obvious from what we know prior to his arrival in the novel that he is a Targaryen imposter. However, it is entirely possible that he is really Ashara's son, from a rape by Aerys, and though a bastard, a Targaryen bastard.

Varys could easily have switched out the babies in the time it took for a messenger to get to the gates to allow Tywinn into King's Landing. This would be especially true if he had been planning it as a contingency for a long time. He, after all, thought that Tywinn had switched from loyalist to rebel. That is why I think that Varys may believe that he has the real Aegon, which he does, but he is not a true Targaryen heir. The question that has been begging some thought is whether Varys knew of Ashara and Elia switching babies. If he does, there is a very high probability that Ser Arthur Dayne and Rhaegar also knew. And, it adds motive for Varys to seek Lady Ashara's help in raising fAegon.

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Rhaegar believed in the dragon having three heads. If he chose to go against hiis father, King Aerys, to protect Aegon, why not Rhaenys? It is quite clear that he believes that he will win the battle. It is quite clear that he expects to make changes when he returns. It is also quite clear that he won't go against his father's wishes by replacing Jaime. It is almost certain that Rhaegar would not make a back up plan with regards to Aegon or the children.

Yes he believed that there are three heads in the dragon, but scenario at Kings Landing is much difficult than anticipated. I am not going to do a heresy here, but What if Elia had the last call at the end. She knows it will be difficult to get 3 or 2 out, so she decided to make it the heir.

HE is the heir. The most important.

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As for your first points, they really are an interpretation that you want to put in that5 has absolutely no support in the text, and is refuted specifically by what we know from the text. King Aerys, the Mad King, insisted that Jaime remain as his Kingsguard, and Rhaegar refused to change that order for Jaime. King Aerys also insisted that Elia and her children remain in the Red Keep, show something that indicates that Rhaegar or indeed anyone would go against the Mad King's decrees then we can discuss it. Until that comes up, keep in mind that it was a certain and painful death that followed even a minor insult to King Aerys.

I don't think for a minute that fAegon is Rhaegar's son, it is all too obvious from what we know prior to his arrival in the novel that he is a Targaryen imposter. However, it is entirely possible that he is really Ashara's son, from a rape by Aerys, and though a bastard, a Targaryen bastard.

Varys could easily have switched out the babies in the time it took for a messenger to get to the gates to allow Tywinn into King's Landing. This would be especially true if he had been planning it as a contingency for a long time. He, after all, thought that Tywinn had switched from loyalist to rebel. That is why I think that Varys may believe that he has the real Aegon, which he does, but he is not a true Targaryen heir. The question that has been begging some thought is whether Varys knew of Ashara and Elia switching babies. If he does, there is a very high probability that Ser Arthur Dayne and Rhaegar also knew. And, it adds motive for Varys to seek Lady Ashara's help in raising fAegon.

I thought Ashara had an unborn baby girl??????????????????

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King Aerys, the Mad King, insisted that Jaime remain as his Kingsguard, and Rhaegar refused to change that order for Jaime. King Aerys also insisted that Elia and her children remain in the Red Keep, show something that indicates that Rhaegar or indeed anyone would go against the Mad King's decrees then we can discuss it. Until that comes up, keep in mind that it was a certain and painful death that followed even a minor insult to King Aerys.

Yes, the mad king was a terrible maniac who would brutally murder anybody that disobeyed him in even the slightest manor. Besides the fact that there's a significant difference between spiriting baby Aegon to safety and neglecting a direct order re the Kingsguard from the King (that he would also IMMEDIATELY know about), the point of a contingency plan (carried out/initiated by whomever, it doesn't matter) was that it was to be carried out to ensure the survival of the Targaryan dynasty in the event that Rhaegar AND the mad king AND the rest of the royal family were all dead.

Rhaegar knows there are two possible scenarios to follow after the Battle of the Trident:

1) He wins, returns to KL, once again has the babies switched and everything goes back to normal. He now has the opportunity to institute the changes that he wanted to put in place before the battle.

2) He loses, rebel army descends upon KL, King Aerys is executed and most likely the rest of the royal family is killed.

Either way - baby Aegon lives. And the mad king's wrath doesn't matter, because there will be no wrath either way (Rhaegar is either dead or victorious).