Share this:

Like this:

LikeLoading...

Related

This entry was posted on Wednesday, December 5th, 2012 at 10:25 pm and is filed under Weather. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed.
Both comments and pings are currently closed.

The 00z in the long range gives PDX a snowstorm with cold air in place followed by an overrunning event of sleet/freezing rain where the L tracks south of PDX and pulls in frigid gorge east winds with high pressure to the east.

Not PDX But the g.f.s had seattle like -2 not that it really matters because it never happen least highly unlikely. All that cold air up in alaska will never make it here just a tease. This year will be boring like last winter my gut tells me.

Steve I didn’t see any extracted data that had Seattle at -2, or even close to that number. Also, the extracted data is pretty much useless in the long range. Also, if I remember correctly Seattle area had themselves a pretty decent snow/ice storm this past January. I wouldn’t call that boring per say.

It has been an anomalously cold late fall into the first part of winter for interior AK and Yukon. Slightly colder than normal (1.7F below normal) for October, much colder than normal (11.4F below normal) in November…and certainly off to a cold start to December…28.6F below normal!.

Looking at the long range models….it does not appear that things will come anywhere close to thawing out up there for at least a couple weeks.

Back to back significantly colder than normal months in Alaska is truly an exceptional circumstance. Having December and January be very cold up there is just not usually a good thing for us in terms of getting snow/arctic blasts here during those same months…68-69 being an exception. In fact, 1933-34 is the ONLY winter without a freeze at PDX and was a winter in which Dec and Jan were both very cold in Fairbanks. 66-67 was another one of those winters. 70-71 also…but December was not exceptionally cold then.

You don’t get three consecutive super cold months in Fairbanks…I don’t think that has ever happened.

However, having a cold November and December is a different story. 1942-43, 1948-49, 1956-57, 1961-62, 1975-1976, 1974-75 were the only winters in which Nov. avg temp in Fairbanks was below zero F, and the avg temp in December was -10F or less.

I disregarded ENSO status for those winters…..PDO regime rules.

If I am not mistaken…those winters were all neg PDO at least to some extent. 42-43 had the least impressive neg PDO.

There is a very strong signal for a cold January, and a modest signal for cool to cold February.

So this is my bottom line…it just plain simple is not going to get significantly cold here until the cold regime in Alaska loosens its grip…and all we can hope for (and should) is snow in the mountains for the skiers, etc,…until the pattern breaks. Once it does…look out!

I am putting all my chips on the table for a cold January, with average temps 34F or below for the month…which has not happened since 1979. If we get a head start on the cold in the last week of December…so be it.

ON TUESDAY A SHORT WAVE WILL SLIDE SOUTH OUT
OF CANADA…AND THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT LOOKS TO CROSS THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT. CURRENTLY THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO BRING THE COLDEST AIR SO FAR THIS SEASON TO THE AREA.

My 2€ regarding the long range outlook.
We all know that arctic blast/big snow is a rare occurrence here. All the dice have to roll the right way for that to happen. That said, gfs ensembles seem reasonably consistent with ridge E pacific, trough W NA, ridge east. Euro 12z agrees. Big time snow cover NW Canada/AK. Cold PDO. neutral ENSO. It’s fricken December. Analogs from CPC favor cold. 4 of the 6 dice have rolled reasonably on our favor. We just need a couple more dice to roll our way, and we have a few rolls ahead of us. No guarantee, but odds of arctic wx next three weeks I would conclude are considerably greater than average. So white Christmas, here we come!

And be patient. Just because it doesn’t happen in December does not mean it won’t happen. Last year, it didn’t happen (for those of us in western Washington, at least) until the latter half of January.

Yabbit, last winter for areas South of Scappoosia/Battleground and North of McMinnville/Wilsonville/Oregon City, it didn’t happen… period. Basically two winters in a row without a significant (measurable, on the ground for more than 24 hours) snowfall. That couldn’t possibly happen thrice in a row, could it???

I had one snow of 3″ Feb 6 thru the 9th and a record snow on the 21st and 22nd of March. So it can happen. But I gotta tell ya, 9 1/2″ of snow that late in March was just plain weird. Erik, you just need to move a few miles in any direction. And get a little elev!

Does anybody know what our latest first freeze is? I haven’t even been close at my location yet. It is no wonder that so many trees and plants still have some leaves left. There certainly doesn’t appear to be any imminent feezes in the near future either.

I know when I was living in Portland in 2008, it was really late there. In fact, I think it was right as the epic arctic blast came in.

Up here in Puget Sound country, we had our first frost about a month ago, during a clear dry spell where the Willamette Valley ended up mostly a few degrees above the freezing mark. I think you guys got some mid- or upper-level overnight clouds that we didn’t.

I think there was a year with out a freezing temp, but I can’t remember which it was, I think it was in the 60’s but am not sure. Where’s Steve Pierce when you need him?

I remember this because I looked at the same year records for Hillsboro and I think the lowest temp was 29, maybe 28 degrees out here. And there were only about 10-15 days at or below freezing which is a really low number for Hillsboro. For instance, this year has 8 days already in what has been a fairly tropical (AND VERY WET) fall so far.

Looks like models trending colder with trough for Thursday next week, sort of like what was expected for this weekend/early next week by models as of 3-4 days ago.
Overall trend however is to keep the core of cold air locked up in Canada through day 15, with arctic boundary getting tantalizingly close to Fraser valley at times.
we are only one Kamchatka bomb (siberian cold air interacting with Pacific jet NE of Japan) from a major arctic blast…the ridge axis is locking into perfect position…the cold air is waiting to be delivered… just need the ridge to pop up over AK.

I’m a pretty simple guy when looking at the data, so generally speaking, the overall setup is looking better but not perfect. That said, when it looks “perfect” right now, by the time it arrives, it rarely happens… So I’m taking that as a good sign ; )

Anyone know the odds of when we have a long-range that starts to look promising, how it plays out in reality? I’m thinking 1-10 or so?…

But hey, if we only had a 0% chance a few days ago, it’s looking more like a 10% chance at this point. By Saturday we should know if we are moving towards a 50/50 scenario or back to that zippo number all over again…

Blog Rules

THE BASICS:
Commenting on this blog is open to anyone with an interest in or fascination with weather. Here at FOX-12 we're happy to provide you a space to "geek out" with fellow Pacific Northwesterners. But please don't abuse the privilege.

1. POSTING LINKS/VIDEO:
It's okay to insert video or pictures, as long as the link points to something appropriate for the general public. No politics, obscenity, etc...

2. CHOOSE A NAME ONCE:
Choose a name or identification once and stick with it. The very first time you comment it is held for moderation. After it's approved, that EXACT name will be allowed to comment at any time. Note that this applies to your IP address too. So using the same name but on Grandma's computer will require a one-time hold as well. This keeps the spam out.

3. NO PROFANITY:
This is pretty obvious, but avoid being rude or taunting others too.
4. NO DRAMA:
Remember middle school? Please don't do that here; you know what I mean.