Investment Guru Warren Buffet once coined his method to success as “Being fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful”, among many other wise anecdotes.

"Drafting a QB round 1 is for the fucking birds"

The basic gist of what he is saying is by observing how people in large around you behave you can make strategic moves to better advance your own interests. While Buffet was referencing an observation of macroeconomic behavior we believe the same philosophy can be applied to fantasy football. To get an idea of the fantasy football player ‘economy’ we took the Average Draft Position (ADP) of each player from a major site that pulls information from hundreds of drafts on a weekly basis and compared it to their projected scoring total for 2015 using ESPN data (hey, we can’t all be perfect). The graphs you will see below demonstrates how fantasy scoring potential deteriorates as the draft goes on, by looking at the % points scoring decrease of an average player drafted each round compared to the top overall player for each position. The goal is to use this information to create a drafting blueprint: a tool to develop an understanding of how other owners are thinking, and as a result discovering when the best time to strike in order to gain the most value. Then we use those strategies to simulate what we believe an optimal team will resemble on draft day, Arian Foster need not apply.

Quarterback The highest scoring position in fantasy football, QB is an important piece of any contender. 2015 marks an odd year for QBs, while the top tier is as clear as ever (Luck/Rodgers) the rest of the pack is much more muddled than in recent years. The graph below displays this by demonstrating the scoring dropoff by % for each round from the #1 overall projected player (Luck). There is some variance, but the difference between who is left at round 6 and round 14 is pretty marginal. Additional notes below:

Big dropoff after Luck and Rodgers in the first 3 rounds

Another dropoff after Russell Wilson/Drew Brees/Peyton Manning

If you don’t get a QB by round 7 it’s better to wait until near the end of the draft. There is a small gap this year between players like Cam Newton and Eli Manning, Ryan Tannehill, Tony Romo etc.

OPTIMAL DRAFT STRATEGY: Don’t reach on a top tier QB the first 2 rounds. If Luck/Rodgers falls to you after those rounds they will be worth a grab. Otherwise, your best bet is to ride it out until end of draft before getting a QB. We personally think Peyton Manning and Drew Brees are overvalued, making the gap even smaller than these projections demonstrate.

Running Back From the highest scoring position in fantasy to undeniably the most important one, it comes to no surprise that the data backs up the belief that RBs should be snagged early and often.

Called the most valuable fantasy position for a reason. No other position suffers as large a scoring dropoff the first 3 rounds as running back.

Because of this dropoff we highly recommend grabbing at least 1 RB in the first two rounds. You need a stud to build a team around and those quickly become less available in later rounds.

The early dropoff for RB is eerily similar to WR, but from rounds 8 on the opportunity cost of not drafting a RB grows much steeper than the other positions.

Optimal Draft Strategy: RB’s are extremely valuable in the early rounds, BUT EVEN MORE SO later on in the draft. Grab a stud or two early, but be sure to spend the middle rounds taking flyers on handcuffs, rookies, and risky players like Doug Martin. The value at RB left by late rounds is non-existent, so target them in the middle before backup QBs or average TEs.

Wide Receiver One of the biggest surprises in this analysis is the curve for WRs. There is a clear elite class in the NFL, but after that group the position is extremely crowded. The opportunity cost in the middle rounds of not picking WRs is relatively small.

Steep dropoff in early rounds is very similar to that of RBs

This ends roughly around round 4. Rounds 4-8 & 10-14 WRs are very similar in scoring ability

Steady dropoff in middle-late rounds means you don’t lose much value in those picks

Optimal Draft Strategy: WRs are surprisingly just as valuable as RBs in the early rounds. By round 4 most to all of the high end WRs will be taken, try to have 1-2 by this point in the draft. Use the middle rounds to add a little depth at this position, but choosing to wait until near the end of the draft won’t hurt. Most of these players will either be WR2s on their NFL teams or in less strong passing offenses. Combine this information with the RB analysis above to holdoff on WRs and draft backup RBs in the middle of your draft.

Tight End The header of this section might as well be renamed Robert Gronkowski as him and him alone defines this position. There are some other TEs that are projected to standout, mainly players like Graham and Kelce. The graph below can help you navigate one of the more difficult to project positions in fantasy.

HUGE dropoff after Gronkowski

Continuous decline in value during early-middle of the draft

Flat lines around round 9, TEs from here on have similar scoring ability

Optimal Draft Strategy: Gronk is a rare exception at this position where an early pick might be worthwhile. If you miss him we don’t recommend chasing Graham or a TE like Kelce: As shown above RBs and WRs are simply too valuable at this stage in the draft. If a strong TE falls to you in the middle of the draft then taking it can add value. But if you reach round 8 without a TE then your best strategy is to continue stocking up on other positions and snag a TE very late while other league members pay less attention to their picks. Honestly, an elite defense like Seattle or even Buffalo being taken above a TE can be best for your team.

Putting it all together The graph below combines the ones we just reviewed. They may look slightly different due to the scaling of the Y-axis. Here you can see the absolute impact waiting has on each position

Key Takeaways

RB/WR/TE all have similar drop-offs first 4 rounds. TE is almost SOLELY because of Gronk

As Rick’s article will show you: historically WRs are safer picks. With a similar opportunity cost to running backs at less variance they can often bring better value. Treat the two positions equally, grab studs when you can

Because of this don’t reach on Luck/Rodgers. Only take them if there’s been a rush on RBs/WRs first 3 rounds and they fall to you

By round 7 target having 3 RBs, 3 WRs, and a TE if you miss Luck/Rodgers. There are plenty of QBs to go around

This information is useful but you might be wondering how to best implement it. Let’s be real, you are a fantasy football fan reading an article on how to draft your team. You clearly hate making important decisions and need to be coddled while we hold your hand throughout this process… and we are more than happy to do that.

FANTASY DRAFT BLUEPRINT

Round 1: If you have an early pick you absolutely need to take an elite RB (Peterson, Lacy, Bell, Charles) here. These are the safest players in the most critical fantasy position, and as evidenced above the dropoff in passing on one of them here is sharp. However, if you have a late pick DRAFT AN ELITE WR (Bryant, Brown, Thomas). These players have just as much value at their position as the RBs like Lynch, Anderson, and Forte, but at much less risk. Historically a top tier WR is much more likely to produce than a top tier RB (again, see Rick’s article). Because of this divergence in strategy based on position we will look at two different potential teams.

Round 2-3: The fantasy scoring dropoff enters a breakneck pace at these rounds. We recommend drafting opposite of whatever position you drafted round 1 of RB or WR in order to maximize your standing in both the RB and WR positions before the value their disappears.2nd round RBs we like are LeSean McCoy and Jeremy Hill who have safe floors and top 5 upside. Opposed to Matt Forte who has ‘I miss the glory days’ upside and a ‘Out of the NFL completely’ floor. For 3rd round it’s hard to go wrong with consistent producers like Alfred Morris and Lamar Miller this season.

Round 4-7: WR and TE will basically hit their floors by round 7. QB by round 5. We recommend using this time to draft solid backup WRs & RBs, and take a flyer on EITHER that TE you have your eye on or a tier 2 QB. Avoid reaching for players like Jimmy Graham and Drew Brees who are trending downwards in terms of scoring potential but still have the name recognition to warrant high picks. A safe goal to have is 2 RBs/WRs by round 5 at the latest. A bad goal to have is to tell your buddies you read an article about ‘Zero RB Strategy’ online and how it will totally pay off this season as you select Joique Bell to be your RB1.

Round 8-12: If you don’t have a QB or TE yet DON’T PANIC! Now is the worst time to reach for one. People might look at their roster and try to fill those holes when they don’t realize they lose almost nothing by waiting it out. The difference between a middle round QB (ex: Cam Newton) and a late round QB (ex: Philip Rivers or Ryan Tannehill) is almost non-existent. Same for TE. Instead, fill your roster with sleepers (Alfred Blue, David Cobb, Victor Cruz, etc.) and round out positions with top tier talent (ex: Seahawks D/ST, yes draft a defense here). You will want a QB before round 12 (basically, before Sam ‘glass knees’ Bradford is all that’s left) but let the plebes in your league fight over Eli Manning, Matt Ryan, and Tony Romo while you take risky bets on RBs that can make you look like a genius for years to come.

Round 13-16: Time to fill up the holes in your roster. All of the positions have bottomed out by now, so it’s time to draft Kickers, backup QBs, and other worthless shit that won’t win you your fantasy league. Now is also a good time to draft that rookie from your alma mater, or a retired veteran who is still listed as a ‘free agent’, just for laughs.

So what do you think of the sample teams? Both started with completely different positions in the draft, both followed our blue print, and both adhered to current Average Draft Positions. We think both teams turned out great, but don’t take our word for it. We used the well-known team rater from fantasy pros:http://subscribers.footballguys.com/rate-my-team/form.php and words like ‘contender’, ‘league favorite’, and ‘playoff bound’ miiiiiight have been thrown around quite a bit. 2 different teams. 2 different approaches. One WR focused, one RB focused. But by leveraging the strategies of others you can navigate your own pathway to success.

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