Ding: Lakers-Spurs analysis, prediction

The Lakers have usually had plenty of talent to win the NBA title in recent seasons, but with Kobe Bryant missing with a ruptured left Achilles' tendon, how much does that change things this time around -- especially against a San Antonio team with big names such as Tony Parker, Tim Duncan and Manu Ginobili?

CENTER

Tim Duncan, 36, remains listed as a power forward since his early days playing next to David Robinson, but Duncan is a post player who will be going head-to-head most of the time with Lakers center Dwight Howard; that makes Duncan the center. Duncan shed weight several years ago to ease pain in his knees, and in this 16th NBA season his body allowed those fundamentally stellar skills to be back on full display: 17.8 points, 9.9 points, 2.7 assists and 2.7 blocks on 50.2 percent field goals – plus a sudden jump to 82 percent on free throws. Quite the bounce-back after missing the All-Star team in 2012 for the first time in his career.

Dwight Howard, however much his surgically repaired back limited him during the season, has arrived at another level of intensity and activity. He enters this series motivated to prove he can be the Lakers’ leading man without injured Kobe Bryant, same as Howard was in the past two victories over San Antonio and Houston. The best post defender in the league, according to Synergy Sports’ season ratings, Howard can slow Duncan – but Howard also must cover for other Lakers’ defensive mistakes, create most of the offense in the post and sink his free throws (49 percent this season) when the Spurs employ the Hack-a-Dwight strategy. Big stars must carry overflowing responsibility.

Edge: LAKERS

POWER FORWARD

Tiago Splitter is a guy the Lakers are very happy to see, because it’s borderline impossible to find another starting NBA frontcourt slower than the Lakers’ twin-tower alignment. Splitter (24.7 mpg) and Tim Duncan haven’t played together a ton of time, but Splitter’s importance increases with Boris Diaw out with injury. Although he fits his prior Euroleague mold with nice touch around the basket, Splitter is a sub-par post defender – and that could be a big problem in this series vs. Pau Gasol and Dwight Howard.

Pau Gasol, 32, has been through a serious rough patch since three consecutive NBA Finals upon his arrival to the Lakers. Trade talk and two rather woeful postseasons in fringe roles led into injury issues and a demotion from the starting lineup this season. (It remains likely the Lakers will trade Gasol for luxury-tax payroll relief this offseason.) But when the Lakers needed him recently, Gasol has delivered: triple-doubles in two of his past three games, the Lakers utilizing him more in the high post and letting him look like a future Hall-of-Famer again.

Edge: LAKERS

SMALL FORWARD

Kawhi Leonard, 21, isn’t the problem that Kevin Durant would’ve been had the Lakers lost that last regular-season game and drawn Oklahoma City in Round 1. But Leonard (11.9 ppg, 1.7 spg) is on track to be a star in this league, too, with a variety of natural tools – and he has learned the typical Spurs corner 3-point shot, too (37 percent). If Kobe Bryant had played, Leonard would have been the Spurs’ best option against Bryant despite the inexperience. In his second NBA season, Leonard is one of the few Spurs with the talent to find another gear and propel them forward in the playoffs.

Metta World Peace set the 2012 playoffs off kilter for the Lakers by missing the first six postseason games serving his NBA suspension for elbowing James Harden. World Peace’s surprising recovery from torn cartilage in his left knee is a big boost this postseason, though, even if he’s not full speed yet. World Peace’s consistent effort was huge for the Lakers early in the season – resulting in him having the best plus-minus ratio (team score while on the court) for 2012-13. The Lakers might eventually have to turn to World Peace to defend Tony Parker in this series – plus holding out hope Metta’s streaky 3-point stroke (34 percent) is consistently on.

Edge: SPURS

SHOOTING GUARD

Danny Green was disappointing for the Spurs in their last playoff series, which ended with four consecutive losses to Oklahoma City in the West finals, so he’ll be motivated for this. To his credit, he expanded his game immediately after that series and signing a new contract by posting a career-high 10.5 points and entrenching himself one of the NBA’s top 3-point weapons (42.9 percent) this season. The Lakers might try to get away with Steve Nash guarding Green simply because he mostly catches and shoots. But Green’s strong defense at 6-foot-6 will make it hard for Lakers guards to find easy shots at the other end.

Steve Blake hit some big shots in the Lakers’ first-round triumph over Denver last season – and defended great in Game 7. After missing 37 games because of an abdominal injury, the suddenly nicknamed “Blake Mamba” comes in now with 47 points in the final two Kobe-less games, the best back-to-back scoring of Blake’s 10-year NBA career. Jodie Meeks is another starting option, but with the Lakers more often playing inside-out, post-up ball now, Blake’s 3-point stroke (42.1 percent) off kick-out passes will be a critical part of the Lakers’ offense. Blake came to the Lakers in 2010 planning to add a title to the national championships he won at Maryland and at Oak Hill Academy.

Edge: SPURS

POINT GUARD

Tony Parker was the NBA Finals MVP the last time San Antonio won it all in 2007, taking the baton from Manu Ginobili, who took it previously from Tim Duncan. Spurs coach Gregg Popovich cited Parker as the team’s MVP candidate this season despite Duncan’s renaissance, and that’s because Parker has become truly masterful in the pick-and-roll sets that anchor this offense. Despite Parker’s speed, the Spurs don’t need to prey on the Lakers’ poor transition defense to score a lot. A March 1 left ankle sprain derailed Parker’s momentum before he finished with 20.3 points and 7.6 assists per game. Especially against the Lakers’ weak perimeter defense, Parker projects to be this series MVP.

Steve Nash is one of the greatest point guards in NBA history, but he shifted this season off the ball out of deference to Kobe Bryant – and because Nash is also one of the greatest shooters in NBA history. Questionable with a strained right hamstring entering this series, Nash (12.7 ppg) will likely see his workload eased again – although the Lakers will wish for more. Nash, 39, looms as an even weaker link on defense than normal given the leg problem. Despite Nash’s court vision, beware of his turnovers feeding teammates with whom he has rarely been on the same page this season leading to San Antonio scoring spurts.

Edge: SPURS

BENCH

Manu Ginobili, like Steve Nash, is coming off a late-season hamstring injury and won’t be himself this series. But no one doubts that Ginobili (11.8 ppg) will boost San Antonio’s offense for stretches. DeJuan Blair will be called on to hold off Dwight Howard at times and convert more on offense with Boris Diaw (back) sitting out. Matt Bonner is a 3-point marksman whose impact dwindles in the playoffs when defenders refuse to leave him at the arc. Gary Neal and other Spurs reserves will affect games far more than newly signed Tracy McGrady, who likely will not play.

Antawn Jamison (9.4 ppg) needs surgery on his right wrist but says it doesn’t bother his 3-point stroke much. The Lakers’ bench will need to be hot from deep to win this series, and Jodie Meeks (35.7 percent on 3-pointers) is a specialist – except he has been cold most of April. Meeks’ defensive effort is excellent, so he can help there, with Darius Morris another option to guard Tony Parker. Athletic Earl Clark is so poor in team defense and inconsistent with his focus that there was no way he would sustain his midseason success, but he’s playing for a free-agent contract and his body is refreshed from limited playing time recently.

Edge: SPURS

COACH

Gregg Popovich is an NBA legend in his own right: a four-time NBA champion and the 2012 NBA Coach of the Year after largely resting an old team and still getting it tied for the league’s best record in the compacted lockout season. He has no patience for bad attitudes or stupid questions. He knows how to build a championship-level defense but he’s not unwilling to steal Mike D’Antoni’s philosophy about floor spacing. “Pop” is, according to a Larry Brown quote at NBCSports.com: “The most underrated coach in the history of sports.” The Spurs’ record since the 1997-98 season is the best 16-year stretch in NBA history – a .703 winning percentage – that tops anything the Celtics did in the 1950s to ‘70s or the Lakers did in the ‘70s to the ‘90s.

Mike D’Antoni will joke about how San Antonio directly kept his Phoenix teams from even making an NBA Finals appearance, but the more direct issue here is that D’Antoni has won one playoff game with the Suns and Knicks in the past five postseasons while Gregg Popovich has marched on to more success in San Antonio. D’Antoni would love his reputation for not teaching defense to be dented if Dwight Howard can lift the Lakers’ defense dramatically this series. It has been the improved defense that got D’Antoni named NBA Western Conference Coach of the Month for the Lakers’ 7-1 finish – when they actually shot only 45.5 percent from the field in April.

Edge: SPURS

PREDICTION

With their limited speed and lame performance the past two months, the Spurs look vulnerable except – as Kobe Bryant has said many times – the NBA postseason is far less about any kind of momentum than it is about execution. The Spurs know their roles and have for a long time, whereas the Lakers are still piecing things together and lack the trust that they need to turn Dwight Howard’s improved energy into dominant team ball in the playoffs. The absence of Bryant’s incomparable confidence and playmaking, in conjunction with the unavoidable human-nature letdown after pushing so hard the past 1 ½ months to make the playoffs, still make advancing highly unlikely for the Lakers. SPURS WIN, 4-1.

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