The transition from gas-powered to electric vehicles is easier said than done

World's first electric car circa 1884 | Courtesy WikimediaGovernments have never been a creator of wealth, nor an efficient distributor of resources, so when a government comes in and implements a tax for our betterment we should all have a healthy degree of skepticism.

Over time, energy systems will change and new forms will come into play. That said, any of the leading prognosticators will tell you that oil consumption will be increasing for at least the next decade or so.

Canada has, despite what you hear in the media, some of the best regulatory systems out there (don’t be a hater of me because I am in the industry – I live here, have my family here, and I don’t want people to pee where I swim – I love our environment here; more than you). Canada’s social system, whether it be education, health care, or numerous other systems, have a large contribution from the energy sector. To rebuild that will take decades and the process is slow.

The reality is there are over 7,000,000,000 people on this earth, and a large portion of them (China, India, Pakistan, a large portion of continental Africa) want to develop and that will be through hydrocarbons and other forms of energy. A big part of their industrialization will be increasing the number of vehicles available to their citizens. In this regard, it will be very difficult for mass non-gas burning vehicles to be produced to effectively meet demand.

The average vehicle efficiency in the US in 2016 was 25 mpg and the average distance traveled was approximately 15,000 miles or 600 gallons per year. This in turn means people on average use 14.2 barrels per year per vehicle (42 gallons per barrel) or 0.04 of a barrel per day. To reduce oil consumption by 100,000 barrels per day you need to switch conventional engines to electric engines at a rate of 2,500,000 per year). Using a refinery conversion efficiency ratio of 75%, this declines to 1,875,000 cars. Tesla, at its peak rate, would be 500,000 per year.

Global oil consumption is over 95 million barrels per day, and increasing at a rate of 1-1.5 million barrels per day per year. This is a huge undertaking that I think most people don’t truly understand the magnitude of. And remember, electric vehicles need a fuel source, and the battery in that vehicle contains lots of nasties with their own environmental consequences. The idea of replacing a perfectly good car with a electric vehicle is a first world consideration that many cannot afford, but a few of us may have that potential.