Richard Cordray’s Ohio political profile shrinks

Political operators say Cordray’s name no longer tops the lists in Ohio. | John Shinkle/POLITICO

Cordray came to Washington shortly after losing his attorney general reelection bid in 2010 to former Republican Sen. Mike DeWine. Since being chosen in 2011 by Obama to lead the newly created CFPB, an independent regulator, Cordray has spent the past three years not only laying a foundation for the consumer agency but also learning to navigate a constant stream of criticism from Republicans.

His tenure was immediately off to a rocky start with Republicans crying foul over Cordray’s January 2012 recess appointment. Critics have advocated changing the bureau’s structure by putting in place a multi-member commission and subjecting CFPB’s budget to the annual appropriations process — efforts aimed at giving Congress more say over the agency’s operations.

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Congressional scrutiny of the bureau has only intensified in recent months, after multiple CFPB employees came forward with stories of alleged discrimination and retaliation across the agency. House Republicans in particular have pounced at the opening, holding multiple hearings on the allegations and issuing several rounds of subpoenas to compel witness testimonies.

“These disturbing developments once again demonstrate, I believe conclusively, why there must be substantial structural reform at the CFPB,” House Financial Services Committee Chairman Jeb Hensarling (R-Texas) said when Cordray testified before the panel last month. “By design, the CFPB remains arguably the least accountable Washington bureaucracy in the history of America and it shows. This must change.”

The GOP’s long-standing animosity toward the CFPB puts considerable pressure on Cordray to fulfill most, if not all, of his five-year term. If Republicans take the Senate in midterm elections or the country elects a Republican president in 2016, Democrats would benefit from having a CFPB director who is well-anchored in the job and prepared to fend off Republican attacks.

Barring an abrupt and unexpected departure from the CFPB, Cordray’s next opportunity to seek high office in Ohio would be four years away.

Cordray passed on challenging Kasich in November’s gubernatorial race. Meanwhile, taking on Portman for Senate in 2016 would require laying the groundwork for a statewide campaign as soon as next spring, and there could be logistical obstacles to building up a robust operation against the incumbent senator.

“His hurdle would be raising money to become competitive in a year that may not be good for the Democrats in Ohio,” said Robert Bennett, a former longtime Ohio GOP chairman. “The question is, how would he get traction in a presidential year against somebody that’s already been there and probably has greater name recognition? I just think it’d be difficult.”

Democrats involved in Ohio politics and others who have previously worked with Cordray say privately that they would be shocked if Cordray left Washington within the next year to mount a challenge against Portman.

But they also acknowledge that Cordray could be one of the party’s strongest candidates to face the Ohio senator. On paper, the two men share similar profiles: Both served in elected office before being tasked to run executive agencies. Cordray’s tenure leading the nation’s first consumer agency could be a major asset against Portman if Democrats want to paint him as a Republican who has been too cozy with Wall Street.

Portman bucked some of his party’s colleagues by supporting Cordray’s confirmation to the CFPB last year. The first-term senator said in a recent interview that he hasn’t given a lot of thought to the challenge he might face in 2016 but that Cordray’s name hasn’t surfaced much in political discussions.

“I’m in the middle of helping to get the Senate majority in 2014, and that’s what I’m focused on,” Portman said.

But even for 2016, the clock is already ticking.

Ohio Democratic Party Chairman Chris Redfern predicted a “great cycle” for his party in 2016 but said Cordray isn’t among the shortlist of candidates — which includes former Gov. Ted Strickland, ex-Rep. Betty Sutton and Rep. Tim Ryan — who have been floated in that context.

“He’s been away from politics for the best part of a year or a year-and-a-half, and while his position is quite important in Washington, Ohio as you probably know is a retail politics state,” Redfern said. “If you want to run, you better get home quick.”