Just last week, the Giants rallied from a two-game deficit to win three consecutive games at Cincinnati and reach the NLCS. But the odds are against them this time. In fact, their chances of even sending the series back to San Francisco appear slim.

Consider:

• The Cardinals are tough against lefthanders, especially soft-tossers such as Zito. St. Louis led the NL in batting average and on-base percentage against lefties this season. Matt Holliday, Allen Craig, Yadier Molina and David Freese, the heart of St. Louis’ order, all hit righthanded and all hit at least .316 with on-base percentages of at least .381 against lefthanders this season. Craig has been especially tough on Zito, with three homers in 10 at-bats.

• The Cardinals’ bats have woken up. Every starter except for pitcher Adam Wainwright had at least one hit Thursday night. Holliday, Craig and Molina, who had been held without an RBI in the first three games, led the way with five hits and five RBIs.

• St. Louis has stopped Buster Posey. The MVP candidate has only two singles in 14 at-bats in the first four games, and the Cardinals have made it clear they don’t plan to let him beat them.

After the Cardinals walked Posey twice in Game 3, manager Bruce Bochy flopped Posey and Pablo Sandoval in the batting order, believing that would make it less likely for the Cardinals to pitch around Posey. He didn’t draw a walk in Game 4 but he didn’t get a hit, either, and his lineout in the sixth with two on was the biggest out of the game.

• The rest of the Giants haven’t picked up Posey. Perhaps facing Lance Lynn will turn around San Francisco’s attack. The Giants chased Lynn in Game 1 with a four-run fourth inning, but their offense has stalled in St. Louis in large part because of a lack of timely hits. The Giants went 1-for-12 with runners in scoring position in Games 3 and 4.

• The Cardinals have a rested bullpen. With Wainwright able to work seven innings Thursday night, the Cardinals were able to rest all of their relievers except Fernando Salas.

• Busch Stadium has been unfriendly to Zito. He beat the Cardinals with a strong outing in St. Louis this summer, but he failed to make it through five innings in his three other career starts at Busch Stadium.

• Zito hasn’t been tough against many opponents. The 34-year-old lefty won 15 games and enjoyed his most successful season of the six he has spent in San Francisco since signing a seven-year, $126 million deal. But his ERA was a mediocre 4.15 and he allowed more hits than innings pitched.

With a fastball that averaged only 83.9 mph, according to fangraphs.com, Zito doesn’t have much margin for error. He not only has to hit the corners, he needs a pitcher’s strike zone and has to hope the Cardinals’ hitters come out overly aggressive.

Bochy passed over Zito for the Game 4 start because he believed Lincecum gave the Giants a better chance of beating the Cardinals. Now Bochy is putting the team’s fate in Zito’s hands. Like others who have watched the Cardinals over the past two postseasons, Bochy knows his lefty is facing a tall task.

“They do have something going,” Bochy said. “There’s no getting around that.”