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Re: I'm not sold on the Pirates

I've been among those who have argued that we can't dismiss the Pirates out of hand. Folks may well be right that they'll fade; history alone suggests that. Then again each squad annually is different.

The weekend series between the Pirates and the Cards, frankly played out as I had hoped, particularly given that we didn't win yesterday. While the Pirates are in second and it's always good to put added room between yourself and that next team down, I wanted to add to our lead on the Cardinals. But yesterday, given that we were 3 1/2 up on the Redbirds, I then wanted them to win yesterday so no matter what we did, we'd still be on top.

I hate to see us lose games like yesterday, particularly in the manner we did (and I'm guessing Ludwick and Bruce would probably agree). Now I'd like to see us finish up to the break with a good streak of games.

Ultimately I think it will still be us and the Cardinals. But those Pirates are proving to be pesky probably just how we were in 2010.

“In the same way that a baseball season never really begins, it never really ends either.” - Lonnie Wheeler, "Bleachers, A Summer in Wrigley Field"

Re: I'm not sold on the Pirates

Pitching is the name of the game, as long as the Pirates pitching continues to be very good they will stay in the race. Also, their offense is underrated - they are hitting home runs and in some ways their offense resembles the Reds - lots of jacks but few men on base. They just set a team record for homers in a month and the Pirates have had some pretty powerful offenses in the past so it's not as if their offense is completely inept. I think they are being completely undersold.

Re: I'm not sold on the Pirates

This race is not up to the Pirates or the Cardinals. It's up to the Reds to take it. If they make the moves they need to then they'll win it. If not then they'll continue to muddle around .500 and give another team a chance to sneak ahead. Put another way, the argument can be made that our Reds are underachieving whereas the Pirates are getting the absolute most out of their talent.

Re: I'm not sold on the Pirates

They're starting to worry me. Still think the pitching will regress to the mean a bit, as will the hitting.(I doubt they'll lead the league in runs for another month.) But they strike me as a team that both has the resources and the most to gain from obtaining one or two big pieces at the trade deadline.

When people say that I don’t know what I’m talking about when it comes to sports or writing, I think: Man, you should see me in the rest of my life.
---Joe Posnanski

Re: I'm not sold on the Pirates

Looking at the rest of the season, if the Pirates want to compete, they're going to have to keep it together on the road. The Reds and Cards are currently over .500 both at home and on the road. The Pirates, as usual, are notably better at home than on the road, with an unbelievable 24-13 record for the former and a subpar 19-23 away. They spend an awful lot of August at home and an awful lot of September on the road. Which makes me think they'll "compete" pretty deep into the season and then lose it right at the end.

Interesting to note that the Astros are a surprising 23-19 at home (they are 9-29 on the road). After the ASB, the Buccos play the Astros six times in Houston and three in Pittsburgh. The Cards and astros are reversed: six games in St. Louis and three in Houston. The Reds play at Houston six more times, no more in Cincy, so that sucks. I still think the Cards will pull ahead of the Pirates pretty handily. The Buccos won't finish higher than third.

Re: I'm not sold on the Pirates

It is a mashup but the Pirates are leaders for the NL WC and are tied for the Reds with the best pen ERA at 2.71. They are getting better but have been great in 1-run games and extras. Also they are the MLB leaders in save percentage at 87%. So regressing back to the mean in all those categories should be expected although Hanrahan is a terrific closer. Reds have blown 9 saves in 30 tries while the Bucs have only blown 4 saves in 30 tries. We've flat out given away 3-4 games in the last month while the Pirates have maximized nearly every opportunity.

This will be the year the Pirates break the 20-year losing streak. Whether they are an 82, 85 or 90 win team depends on some continued good fortune and a deadline deal or two (and they are in a good position on that front if desired).

Re: I'm not sold on the Pirates

Originally Posted by oregonred

It is a mashup but the Pirates are leaders for the NL WC and are tied for the Reds with the best pen ERA at 2.71. They are getting better but have been great in 1-run games and extras. Also they are the MLB leaders in save percentage at 87%. So regressing back to the mean in all those categories should be expected although Hanrahan is a terrific closer. Reds have blown 9 saves in 30 tries while the Bucs have only blown 4 saves in 30 tries. We've flat out given away 3-4 games in the last month while the Pirates have maximized nearly every opportunity.

I actually think Hanrahan is due for a crash. His K/BB rate has dropped dramatically and his walk rate has more than doubled since last year. For whatever reason he's been lucky.

Re: I'm not sold on the Pirates

I actually think Hanrahan is due for a crash. His K/BB rate has dropped dramatically and his walk rate has more than doubled since last year. For whatever reason he's been lucky.

I hope you are right, but the Pirates have been lights out in close games and save opportunities this season. If we assume the Pirates 87% save percentage moves closer to the NL average of 69% (Reds are only at 70%) then it works the other way for St Louis who are at rock bottom at 57%.

Re: I'm not sold on the Pirates

Originally Posted by oregonred

I hope you are right, but the Pirates have been lights out in close games and save opportunities this season. If we assume the Pirates 87% save percentage moves closer to the NL average of 69% (Reds are only at 70%) then it works the other way for St Louis who are at rock bottom at 57%.

2012 Saves/Save Opptys:

Pirates 26/30
Reds 21/30
St Louis 17/30

Yes but how about THIS airtight evidence: Hanrahan is on my fantasy team. And my fantasy team is a notorious tease.

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