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There are 2,286
republican delegates. It takes 1,144 delegates to win the Republication
nomination. With four candidates remaining, many are wondering about the
likelihood of a brokered convention where no candidate wins in the first
round.

Conventional wisdom suggests there will not be a brokered convention. From
where I sit, one is increasingly likely.

Following is a table of delegates won so far (totals from Real Clear Politics Delegate
Count), plus my projections of all primaries and caucuses
through Super-Tuesday on March 6 (based on recent polls).

Virginia Prediction
49 Delegates
Romney wins all 49 Virginia delegates.
Virginia has a proportional allocation with a twist. Should any candidate
take 50% in a district, the candidate will all votes in the district. In a display of complete ineptitude, Santorum
and Gingrich failed to collect and turn in enough signatures on time and are
not on the ballot. Romney is currently polling about 53% and Paul 23%, but
Paul can only win delegates if he outright wins a district.

A third straw poll will be held March 1-3 and my answer may change based on
the results of that poll.

Ron Paul or Mitt Romney will likely take all of the delegates based on the
explanation below. Whether or not Paul or Romney takes all the votes depends
entirely on whether or not Gingrich or Santorum can win any counties which at
this time looks doubtful. Idaho Caucus Explanation:

Voters will go to
locations for their county and use ballots or tokens to support a candidate
on Tuesday, March 6th. There are five candidates for Idaho voters to choose
from and they will keep voting until a winner is selected.

In each round the candidate with the fewest votes or anyone with less than
15% is out of the race. The voting ends at the county level when there is a
final vote for two candidates or one has more than 50% of the vote for that
county.

The delegates assigned for that county will then represent the winning candidate.
Counties will report their winner to the state office in Boise. If one
candidate has more than 50% of the vote for all of Idaho, they get all 32
delegates. Otherwise, the candidates split delegatesthey won in eachcounty

I cannot find any
recent polls for North Dakota, Alaska, or Vermont. Romney should do extremely
well in Vermont and fair at best in North Dakota and Alaska.

I purposely bumped up Romney's percentages to see if a brokered convention
would still be possible. I also awarded Romney all 32 delegates in Idaho even
though that race is a statistical dead-heat with Ron Paul.

If Ron Paul wins Idaho, and the rest of my numbers above are close, the odds
of a brokered convention are well above 50 percent in my estimation. There
may be a brokered convention anyway, provided Santorum, Paul, and Gingrich
stay in to the end.

There are 2,286
delegates to the Republican National Convention, of which 1,144 are required
to clinch a majority. The Web site TheGreenPapers.com, which has extensive
information on delegate-selection procedures in each state, divides them into
two broad categories, what it calls “hard” and
“soft.” Hard delegates are formally bound to a candidate on at
least the first ballot at the convention, while soft delegates are not.

Although this is a useful conceptual framework, it probably simplifies things
too much. Instead, Republican delegates exist along something of a spectrum
between bound and unbound, pledged and unpledged, hard and soft.

Contributing to the confusion is that there are a series of three
interrelated ideas about delegates which are often treated as
interchangeable, even though they are not:

Bound vs. Unbound Delegates. Is the
delegate officially bound to a particular candidate on at least the first
ballot at the convention?

Pledged vs. Unpledged Delegates.
Whether or not she is formally bound to a candidate, will the
delegate’s candidate preference be known in advance of the convention
and reported upon by the news media? .

Elected vs. Selected Delegates. Was
the delegate selected through some relatively direct means, such as based on
the popular vote in the state’s primary? Or through some indirect
means, like through the series of conventions that often take place in caucus
states, and which may not correspond to the popular vote there?

Category of Delegates

Legal Challenges on the Way

I did not take any of the bound, unbound, super-delegate counts into
consideration. However, I was rather generous to Romney in other ways.

Moreover, there are legal challenges pending in Arizona and Florida.
Winner-Take-All primaries are a violation of Republican National Committee
rules if held before April 1. As it stands, Romney 50 Florida delegates and
29 Arizona delegates that could dramatically change the totals.

Should Romney loses those challenges and also lose Idaho, a brokered
convention would be all but certain.

If Wishes Were Fishes

If wishes (mine) were fishes, then Ron Paul would win the nomination
outright. A more realistic wish is for a brokered convention because Romney,
Santorum, and Gingrich are all likely to lose to Obama.

I believe Paul would defeat Obama although polls don't currently support that
idea.

Republicans Need to Face the Facts

Of the four candidates, only Ron Paul balances the budget, only Ron Paul
wants to stop the war-mongering, only Ron Paul does not alienate the majority
of women, only Ron Paul can ignite a fire in independents, and independents
(not the radical right), are the key to this election.

Republicans are not going to vote for Obama so appealing to the far right
makes little sense in terms of an overall strategy. Moreover, independents
are likely horrified by the war-mongering and misguided statements on
religious and social issues of all the candidates but Paul.

If Republicans lose this election, it will be because they all outdid each
other in foolish attempts to appeal to the far right on issues where a huge
majority of the population of the US is in the middle.

Mike Shedlock / Mish is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. He writes a global economics blog which has commentary 5-7 times a week. He also writes for the Daily Reckoning, Whiskey & Gunpowder, and has over 80 magazine and book cover credits. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com

I appreciate what you are attempting to show here and basically I'm sure your using the best assumptions you have.Unless I am misunderstanding something you appear to be using popular vote percentages, what has recently been refered to as the beauty contest.In reality Ron Pauls delegate count is going to be much higher. We will probably not have a true perspective until after the first round of conventions. In some precints, even those where the vote was only 3rd or 4th Dr. Pauls supporters snagged all of the delegates for that precint.Ron Paul supporters have been attending classes for 4 years to learn how to beat the corrupt GOP insiders at their own game under their ever changing rules.The American Dream = Freedom

I appreciate what you are attempting to show here and basically I'm sure your using the best assumptions you have. Unless I am misunderstanding something you appear to be using popular vote percentages, what has recently been refered to as the beauty con Read more