'Some say the PM's time is ticking away, others are confident there will be no leadership change,' writes Phillip Hudson. Picture: Kym Smith Source: News Limited

THE only way Kevin Rudd can return to the Labor leadership is if Julia Gillard steps down and he is drafted by MPs pledging their absolute loyalty.

It would have to be a stunning repeat of 1995, when John Howard was resurrected to the Liberal leadership after insisting he would replace Alexander Downer only if it was a bloodless and uncontested handover.

We'll find out if history repeats in the next two weeks - the final sitting of Parliament before the September 14 election set by Gillard and Labor's last chance to switch leader.

Gillard has no intention of doing a Downer and says those who want her out of The Lodge are wasting breath as she's not willingly going anywhere. One of her close supporters says she's fighting two opponents - Tony Abbott and Rudd - and will not "surrender".

Rudd repeatedly says he will not mount a challenge despite his barnstorming tour across the country that looks, sounds and smells like something much more than lending a helping hand. Labor MPs admit they do not know how this drama will play out. Some say the PM's time is ticking away, others are confident there will be no leadership change.

Bill Shorten is seen as the key player in this strange political soap opera. Having been a key ally of Gillard toppling Rudd as PM in 2010, and heavily involved in her war room to prevent any of his comeback attempts, if he were to switch camp it would be a significant blow to Gillard.

Shorten has been lobbied directly and indirectly, and taken his own soundings. So far, he says, he is sticking by Gillard. But it would take more than just Shorten to "tap" Gillard on the shoulder. It would need to be a delegation of supporters telling her to go. It might include Tanya Plibersek, Jenny Macklin, Penny Wong, Brendan O'Connor, Greg Combet, Stephen Smith and Jason Clare. There is no sign any of those ministers believes that is the right course of action.

Equally, there is no doubt Labor MPs are spooked by repeated devastating polls showing the ALP facing a wipeout that could leave previously safe seats in Liberal hands.

It's not just in NSW, Queensland and Western Australia where Labor has been in strife for some time. The panic and catastrophic polling has spread to Victoria and South Australia, which have been considered Gillard strongholds. There are claims polling is being hidden from MPs.

Some Labor MPs agitating for a change of leader insist Gillard is "toxic" with voters who don't trust her because she was the loyal deputy who knifed Rudd, then broke the "no carbon tax" pledge, and presided over various bungles.

To many it seems perplexing why Labor just doesn't switch from Gillard to the more popular Rudd. But some key figures just hate his guts and believe Rudd and his supporters committed the unforgivable sin of leaking against Gillard during the 2010 campaign and caused the hung Parliament and all the trouble that has flowed from that.

One extremely marginal-seat MP, who has a much better chance of saving his $195,130-a-year job by switching to Rudd, says he is sticking with Gillard. He doesn't hate Rudd. He just thinks Gillard is a better leader.

Gillard has crushed Rudd three times. He didn't even contest the original challenge in 2010. He was thrashed 71-31 last year, when Wayne Swan and others trashed his reputation. And in March he didn't contest the farcical ballot after Simon Crean forced a spill. Yet it has not harmed his popularity, which will be on display again in western Sydney today. He remains the people's choice in the polls. But how much of that is fond memories that will evaporate?

If Gillard is replaced by Rudd it will be Labor's sixth leadership change in 12 years. The leadership has been a revolving door since Kim Beazley stood down for Crean after the 2001 election. Gillard marks three years as leader on Monday week - if she makes it that far.

Those trying to convince Shorten to switch his support argue Rudd would "save the furniture" and give Shorten as the next leader a better chance to win the 2016 election.

Why Rudd would want to save the furniture for the next guy who he doesn't like isn't clear. Rudd has a healthy political ego and you'd have to think he would be drafted only if he thought he could win - the ultimate vindication.

Then again, Rudd might say no again. His dancing through shopping malls might be more about helping mates and defending his legacy. As he told ABC, Labor should not be "constructing alibis for defeat". It was widely seen as a shot at those around Gillard who blame him for the Government's diabolical position. What is clear is that having two PMs in the Labor caucus over the past three years has not worked.

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Comments on this story

Maree of Box Hill Posted at 12:20 PM June 18, 2013

Who's running the country? Good people are losng their jobs & manufacturing is going down the drain while these idiots, who don't live in the "real" world, jostle for power and are about to receive yet ANOTHER wage increase with no productivity or performance conditions attached!!

Craig Riley of Brisbane Posted at 11:58 AM June 18, 2013

I think Rudd is just putting his best foot forward. Makes you wonder why none of the other labour people are doing the same. If they ALL had a positive attitude, how great would it be. I'd vote for someone who is positive, not negative. Lets all not forget, that Julia Gillard stabbed him in the back and took over as PM. Rudd has said he will not contest, and he hasn't. If his actions are showing that he is more popular than the PM, its because he is. With his positive attitude, the fact that he says "I will not contest, and everybody should just get on with it" is a testament to the man. I'm not a Labor fan by any means, but I gotta give the guy credit for where credit is due.

Byron Posted at 11:44 AM June 18, 2013

I suspect Bill Shorten would continue to back Gillard regardless of how badly she does , Bill`s wife Chloe Bryce , is the president of the Women for Gillard Group and if that`s not awkward enough Chloe`s mum is the Governor General . While the GG is technically neutral I can`t see Bill doing anything to get the wife and the mother-in-law offside

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