IMFDiscussion Forums

OECD forecasts vs IMF forecasts - GDP growth and unemployment Is there difference in methodologies between the OECD forecasts for real GDP growth and unemployment and those by the IMF?

I just noticed that the data in OECD 83 database for European countries is different for unemployment and real GDP growth. They differ both in forecasts as well as historicals.

Specific example is Netherlands 2006 unemployment: IMF WEO database = 3.917%; OECD database = 4.07% The differences for historicals are minor (and for forecasts are quite meaningful). Is it due to a difference in the data gathering approach?

Unfortunately, we cannot speak for OECD forecasts. What we can tell you is that the WEO estimates are made by IMF country economists based on a set of assumptions outlined in the WEO Statistical Appendix. The WEO team then compiles these estimates from each country-team into the WEO database. How the estimates are derived is a question for the IMF country economists who provided us with these projections. If you have questions for a specific country on their estimates, please send us an e-mail and we can forward your question to the appropriate party.

With regard to the historical data, this could simply be a difference in the source used. In the WEO database, we do disclose for a specific series and country pair, what the source of the historical data is (National Statistical Office, Finance Ministry, etc.). You may want to check if the OECD and the WEO cite the same source for real GDP growth and unemployment series for the countries you are interested in.

Finally, in both cases, the time of the publication's release could also be a factor. For the historical series, official numbers are sometimes revised. Since the WEO is only released twice a year, we may have a more updated series than OECD or vice-versa. And of course for forecasts, these can change from day-to-day depending on several factors; in this case, timing could be a major reason for the differences between the estimates of the OECD and the IMF.