What happens on Good Friday payrolls days?

This Friday marks the somewhat unusual occurrence of a payrolls report being released on a holiday (Good Friday) that will keep stock markets shut.

But it’s not unprecedented, and Adam Cole, global head of FX strategy at RBC Capital, says currency markets should remain on edge.

Cole said there’s no evidence – “at all” – that the reaction in currency markets is delayed to the following week, judging by five instances in the last two decades.

And there won’t be outsized moves due to low liquidity, Cole says.

“Recall that our ready reckoner for payrolls reactions suggests each 100K surprise in the data typically moves
by around 1%. In fact, on the four occasions that payrolls have been significantly different to expectations, the moves have generally been somewhat smaller than this. The same conclusions apply in fixed income markets, at least in recent years,” he said in a note to clients.

On Friday, stock futures will be trading for at least 45 minutes after the release, and government bonds will trade until noon. All Canadian and most European markets will be shut.

Economists polled by MarketWatch expect the Labor Department to report 200,000 nonfarm jobs were created in March.

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