December 17, 2008: India believes
Pakistan is, as it did in 2001 (after Pakistani based terrorists attacked the
Indian parliament building) going through the motions of cracking down on the
terrorist organizations. In 2001, Lashkar e Toiba (which planned the recent
Mumbai attacks) and Jamaatud Dawa (which provided money and other support) had
its leaders put under house arrest and its offices closed temporarily. When the
media heat was off Pakistan, the terrorist leaders were released, and the
terrorist organizations reopened their offices under new names. For the last
six years, India has been negotiating with Pakistan to reverse that decision.
But Pakistan insists that the terrorists dedicated to seizing Kashmir from
India are too popular, inside Pakistan, to really shut down. Since Mumbai,
India is pressuring Pakistan to really, really shut down operations like Lashkar
e Toiba. Pakistan is resisting, as in 2001, and apparently hoping to get away
with doing nothing again. That's won't be easy. The international community,
including the UN, has recognized Lashkar e Toiba and Jamaatud Dawa as terrorist organizations and is threatening to
declare Pakistan a "terrorist state." That would be interesting, as
Pakistan has nuclear weapons and is in danger of falling apart.

Another problem Pakistan and India have
with Islamic terrorists is agreeing on the importance of Kashmir (which both
countries have claimed for over half a century). Islamic radicals claim that
Kashmir is a similar situation to Palestine, where non-Moslems (Israeli Jews)
occupy Moslem land, and must be expelled. What many Indians see here is not
"injustice against Moslems", but the long held Islamic radical belief
that the entire planet is "Islamic territory" and that it is the duty
of every Moslem to support the worldwide conversion process. That's what it
says on most Islamic radical web sites, and in sermons given by radical
clerics. Even the Islamic radicals know that declaring war on the entire world
is counter-productive, so to outsiders they pitch Palestine and Kashmir as
isolated cases of injustice that should be corrected. But the real agenda is
global control, and India knows that it is referred to as the next big
conquest. Lashkar e Toiba and Jamaatud Dawa propagandists constantly talk about
"completing the Islamic conquest of India" (a process that has been
going on for over a thousand years, and has so far produced Pakistan and
Bangladesh, but over 150 million Moslems in India are being ruled by infidels.)
This all sounds absurd to most Westerners, but Islamic radicals take it very
seriously.

Britain is also pressuring Pakistan to
really shut down the terrorist infrastructure. Counter-terrorism efforts in
Britain have found that 75 percent of the serious terrorist plots could be
traced back to training camps or supporting organizations in Pakistan. Same
deal inside India, and the Afghans are similarly incensed about Pakistani
support for the Taliban.

In Pakistan's tribal territories, over
200,000 soldiers and police continue to battle over a million pro-Taliban
tribesmen. But that war is also between pro and anti-Taliban tribes. The
fighting here is vicious, with raiding parties from both sides seeking out the
homes of enemy leaders, burning the compounds down and killing tribal leaders
who oppose them.

The attacks on NATO/U.S. supplies being
trucked through Pakistan, appears to be an attempt jack up the cost of moving
the goods. The drivers want a raise, from $700 per trip (Peshawar in the tribal
territories, 236 kilometers to Kabul) to $1,200. A few hundred dollars a month
is a real good wage in Pakistan, and a driver can make several trips from Peshawar
to Kabul a month. The tribes and police
that guard the route want bigger tips as well. It already costs several
thousand dollars to move each cargo container from the port of Karachi to
Kabul, and lots of people along the way see this as an opportunity to get rich.
While the Taliban take responsibility for recent attacks, the trucking
companies are getting demands from local groups for more money to stop the
violence. The attacks, on some of the dozen major shipping container and truck
depots around Peshawar, appear to be the work of local gangs, not distant
pro-Taliban tribesmen. Meanwhile, NATO and the U.S. are developing alternative
supply routes via Russia and the Caucasus. The objective here is to be able to
abandon the Pakistani route completely. This provides an incentive for the
Pakistanis to lower prices and improve security on the Karachi to Kabul route.

Peshawar is not only the scene of a
battle over lucrative trucking income, but also between pro and anti-Taliban
factions. It's really a war by the Islamic radicals, to impose a more
restrictive lifestyle on everyone. The Taliban have made themselves
particularly unpopular because of efforts to close schools, especially schools
that educate girls.

Another bit of scandalous behavior in
Pakistan is the recent assassination of a retired army general, who had
attempted to publicize the existence of pro-Taliban generals, and their
activities. The dead officer, major general Amir Faisal Alavi, is the brother-in-law
of Nobel prize winning writer V S Naipaul, making it difficult for authorities
in Pakistan bury the story along with general Alavi.

India continues fighting low level
terrorism in the east (Maoists, which has killed about 600 so far this year)
and northwest (Kashmir, where about 550 have died so far this year). Islamic
terrorism in the rest of India has killed nearly 500 this year, and nearly has
thousand have died from tribal and Maoist violence in the northeast tribal
territories. That's about 2,500 deaths this year, compared to about 6,500 in
Pakistan (nearly all caused by Islamic radicals)

December 15, 2008: In Baluchistan
(southwest Pakistan) another bomb cut a main rail line temporarily. Tribal separatists have been fighting, without
much success, for more autonomy and a larger share of gas and oil revenues.

Pakistan is working to destabilize India, exploiting multi-religion and multi-ethnic situation there. They are trying to balance Indian military superiority. US and West are trying to calm the situation down, but since India is more often a victim, they are, in fact, supporting Pakistan doing so. The reason for that is Pakistani cooperation against Al-Qaeda and other radicals whose primary target is the West, and not India.

So, the conclusion is that Pakistan need Al-Qaeda and similar organizations in order to continue campaign against much stronger India. How log is world going to be the hostage of that politics ?

HERALD1357
Until New York ios hit with a really6 big WMD. 12/17/2008 11:20:56 AM

Pakistan is working to destabilize India, exploiting multi-religion and multi-ethnic situation there. They are trying to balance Indian military superiority. US and West are trying to calm the situation down, but since India is more often a victim, they are, in fact, supporting Pakistan doing so. The reason for that is Pakistani cooperation against Al-Qaeda and other radicals whose primary target is the West, and not India.

So, the conclusion is that Pakistan need Al-Qaeda and similar organizations in order to continue campaign against much stronger India. How log is world going to be the hostage of that politics ?

DG

30,000 dead.should just about do it. You see, you don't care about the other guy's troubles until it happens to YOU.

I wish it were different, and that we could get the crazies to listen to reason, but wishes don't count in the real world. Only direct consequences from doing nothing against the evil men present will compel lazy smug men to act.

Usually by that time, the butchers' bill of murders needed to stop those evil men and the margin for error will be too huge to correct so that hundreds of thousands of innocents will die in the doing.

Negotiating with Pakistan to shut down its Islamist terrorist groups is like negotiating with Iran to shut down Hezbollah. Ain't gonna happen. Anybody who's naive enough to think so and to talk about it that way, might as well hand in their press badge and stop pretending they know enough about these situations to report on them.

Pakistan supports Islamic militancy. That's their strategy for national survival, national cohesion, and for dominance over their neighbors. If the civilian govt that's nominally in charge there claims that it wants to stop Islamic militancy, it's a smokescreen for external consumption, and furthermore it's really the military which call the shots on that policy, not the civilians. In Pakistan, the military tells the civilians what to do, and not the other way around. The praetorian guard there aren't going to give up their jihadist ace-in-the-hole just to keep the Indians off them. They have nukes to do that.

Negotiating with Pakistan to shut down its Islamist terrorist groups is like negotiating with Iran to shut down Hezbollah. Ain't gonna happen. Anybody who's naive enough to think so and to talk about it that way, might as well hand in their press badge and stop pretending they know enough about these situations to report on them.

If they all turned in their press badges, the only place that would be left to get any news would be the internet.

From what I see, Pakistan would be a far worse quagmire than Afghanistan if one were to contemplate an invasion and an occupation afterwards.

Agreed. The terrain is worse, the population is 5x larger, and there seem to be no organized military allies in Pakistan. The logistics situation will probably be worse than the Normandy Landing because there are no practical ports for resupply that can be quickly capture and secured.

The only practical location to launch the invasion is probably India, which would mean attacking head-on into all of Pakistan's prepared defenses and igniting a religious war.

On the up side, an invasion and occupation is unlikely to be needed. Pakistan is very tied into the global economy and over 50% of the economy is in the service sector. Pakistan is extremely vulnerable if international sanctions were applied and they would immediately bite hard. Most previous attempts to apply sanctions have been against countries that supply critical materials (oil or minerals) or are nearly self sufficient. Pakistan has little to offer that cannot be gotten elsewhere and imports most of it's materials and a large portion of it's food.

Herald is right. Security services can't thwart each and every terrorist plot forever. Probability theory says that they will eventually score a big hit somewhere in Europe or North America if they just keep trying long enough.

Mumbai case shows that terrorist have everything they need inside Pakistan, that means money, equipment, instructors and training centers. They receive special forces level training and logistical support they needed. Other Muslims, like Arabs, would provide money, but won't go much beyond that. Except, maybe, Somalia, but Somalia can be shut down. Without Pakistan terrorism would fall back to levels it was in 80's and 90's of last century.

India won all Indo-Pakistan wars, except the last one (1999) which ended as truce before becoming high intensity conflict. Without diplomatic, financial and military aid from US Pakistan could easily lose another war. Pakistan will, probably, receive some support from China, but that would not be enough.

Negotiating with Pakistan to shut down its Islamist terrorist groups is like negotiating with Iran to shut down Hezbollah. Ain't gonna happen. Anybody who's naive enough to think so and to talk about it that way, might as well hand in their press badge and stop pretending they know enough about these situations to report on them.

But isn't this the policy - direct negotiations - that Obama claims is going to solve all our problems? Remember, he has told us that negotiations with Iran will stop them from developing the bomb.

Well.... we indians really do not want war.... but now we r left wid no option. There hav been so many attacks like these, and pakistan has done nothing to co operate!... Some of the most wanted men still operate from their country, and these r free men in pakistan. More ever, pakistan just doesnt seem to believe the pakistani link. They still deny that kasab (the lone terrorist to be captured) is a pakistani. Everyone from uk, to israel to us nd india hav said he is pakistani. Even the pakistani television reporter in a sting operation revealed that he is pakistani. And if u people are saying why doesnt india give evidence... it is only because pakistan tries to erase it. Kasab's house was locked after this came out in public, nd now when kasab wrote a letter to pakistan saying he need legal help, pakistan say that letter may well be written by some one else. The biggest problem is, no one knows how to deal wid pakistan! The army nd isi runs pakistan. Everyone knows that they were involved in mumbai attacks. So we hav a option to launch air strikes and covert operations. If we do so, pakistan is bound to retaliate. And that will lead to a war....

now comparing the 2 sides... india has won 3 out of 4 wars, nd the 1999 kargil war ended in true, but india had the upper hand. As far as army goes, india is the 3rd largest army, while pakistan is the 7th