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Survey Reflects 10 Years of Civitas Polling

The most recent Civitas Poll of North Carolina voters compared their current views with the positions of voters in May 2005, when Civitas took its first poll.

Despite demographic and political shifts, many findings were similar over the decade. For example, voters continue to favor cutting spending rather than raising taxes to control state spending.

Asked the reason for tight NC budgets in 2015, an overwhelming majority of voters, 78 percent, said the cause was government spending that is too high. When asked how for the best way to cut budgets, 57 percent said the state should cut government spending or stop spending on new programs. Only 8 percent favored raising taxes.

Asked the equivalent questions in 2005, 84 percent said spending was too high, and 67 percent said the solution was to cut spending or stop spending on new programs. Only 5 percent said raising taxes was the answer.

The poll also showed that voters do not support increased funding for the University of North Carolina system. When asked about the amount of state appropriations used to support the UNC system, 47 percent of survey respondents said the taxpayer share of undergraduate education is “too high.” Just 11 percent of voters said it was “too low,” while 31 percent said it was “about right.”

In the 2005 poll, 40 percent of voters thought the taxpayer share of UNC’s expenses was too high.

The 2015 poll also revealed what today’s voters think of how well President Obama, Gov. Pat McCrory and Sen. Richard Burr are doing their jobs.

The 2015 poll surveyed 600 registered North Carolina voters, 30 percent of whom were reached on cell phones. The survey was taken May 5-7, and had a margin of error of plus/minus 4 percent.

The May 2005 poll was taken by Tel Opinion Research. In it 1,000 voters were surveyed, and it had a margin of error of plus/minus 3.1 percent.

Text of selected questions*:

Are you presently registered to vote in North Carolina? (If Yes, “With which political Party are you affiliated?)

2005

2015

38%

33%

Republican

50%

40%

Democrat

12%

27%

Unaffiliated/ Other Party

Regardless of your party registration, do you …

2005

2015

38%

38%

Total Democrat

29%

30%

Total Republican

20%

19%

Always vote Democrat

18%

19%

Vote Democrat more often than Republican

18%

18%

Vote Republican more often than Democrat

11%

12%

Always Vote Republican

32%

29%

Split Ticket/ Both Equally

1%

2%

Don’t Know

—

1%

Refused

How often do you participate in primary elections?

2005

2015

61%

55%

All the time

21%

29%

Most of the time

9%

10%

Some of the time

5%

4%

Not very often

3%

3%

Never

1%

—

Don’t Know

—

—

Refused

If the 2016 election for State Legislator in your area were held today, would you be voting for the:

2005

2015

25%

30%

Republican candidate

35%

34%

Democrat candidate

6%

4%

Neither

34%

31%

Don’t Know

*

*

Refused

Do you feel things in North Carolina are generally headed in the right direction or have things gotten off on the wrong track?

2005

2015

38%

39%

Right Direction

42%

49%

Wrong Track

20%

12%

Don’t Know/Unsure

—

*

Refused

Which of the following issues or programs needs the most attention from State government?

2005

2015

21%

13%

Lowering health care costs

18%

36%

Improving public education

24%

29%

Creating jobs

15%

8%

Holding down taxes

3%

3%

Protecting the environment

2%

2%

Improving transportation

13%

8%

Controlling immigration

4%

2%

Don’t Know

—

—

Refused

Do you approve or disapprove of the job performance of the North Carolina State Legislature?

2005

2015

39%

36%

Approve

35%

43%

Disapprove

27%

20%

Don’t Know/Unsure

*

1%

Refused

North Carolina has recently been experiencing tight budgets. In your view, which was the single most important cause of the budget problems? †

2005

2015

84%

78%

Government spending is too high

4%

10%

Taxes are too low

6%

6%

Both

5%

5%

Don’t Know/Unsure

*

1%

Refused

† Wording in 2005: “North Carolina has recently been experiencing state budget deficits…”

Which policy for balancing North Carolina’s budget would you most support?

2005

2015

52%

47%

Cutting government spending to avoid tax increases

5%

8%

Raising taxes to preserve existing government programs

22%

28%

Mix small budget cuts with some tax increases

15%

10%

Stop spending on new programs

7%

6%

Don’t Know/Unsure

—

*

Refused

To your knowledge, has North Carolina’s state budget increased in recent years, or has it been cut?

2005

2015

71%

40%

Increased

9%

35%

Cut

20%

25%

Don’t Know/Unsure

—

*

Refused

The Taxpayer Protection Act would limit the growth of spending by North Carolina’s State government. State spending would be allowed to grow only enough to keep up with inflation and population growth. Do you support or oppose the Taxpayer Protection Act?

2005

2015

72%

64%

Support

12%

19%

Oppose

16%

17%

Don’t Know/Unsure

*

*

Refused

Which of the following policies for promoting economic growth do you prefer:

2005

2015

64%

61%

Tax cuts for all businesses in North Carolina

20%

25%

Subsidies and tax breaks for a few target businesses

16%

12%

Don’t Know/Unsure

*

1%

Refused

Do you support or oppose a state run lottery in North Carolina?

2005

2015

60%

68%

Total Support

32%

26%

Total Oppose

48%

39%

Strongly Support

12%

30%

Somewhat Support

5%

9%

Somewhat Oppose

26%

17%

Strongly Oppose

8%

5%

Don’t Know/ Unsure

*

*

Refused

North Carolina currently collects more in taxes on gasoline and car sales than it spends on highway improvement. The excess revenue is spent on other state programs. Should taxes collected from highway users be spent only for improving highways, or should the money be spent for other uses as well?

2005

2015

68%

60%

Only spent for improving highways

28%

35%

Spent for other uses

5%

5%

Don’t Know/Unsure

—

*

Refused

Taxpayers now pay 71%† for the cost of undergraduate education in the University of North Carolina system for in-state students. Do you think the taxpayers’ share of the cost is…

2005

2015

40%

47%

Too High

3%

11%

Too Low

43%

31%

About Right

14%

10%

Don’t Know/Unsure

—

*

Refused

† 81% in 2005

Do you support or oppose legislation that gives in-state college tuition rates to North Carolina’s illegal immigrants? †

2005

2015

13%

28%

Total Support

83%

66%

Total Oppose

6%

12%

Strongly Support

7%

16%

Somewhat Support

7%

11%

Somewhat Oppose

76%

55%

Strongly Oppose

4%

6%

Don’t Know/ Unsure

—

*

Refused

† Wording in 2005: “Do you support or oppose the recently proposed legislation…”

What of the following benefits do you believe illegal immigrants should receive from North Carolina…

2005

2015

45%

39%

No benefits

32%

23%

Emergency Medical benefits

5%

9%

Educational benefits

5%

7%

Driver’s License

6%

14%

All Three

2%

2%

Medical and Educational

2%

2%

Medical and driver’s license

*

1%

Educational and driver’s license

—

2%

Other

2%

1%

Not sure

—

*

Refused

Would you support a State constitutional Amendment defining marriage as an act between a man and a woman?

2005

2015

78%

61%

Yes

19%

36%

No

3%

3%

Don’t Know/Unsure

*

*

Refused

Do you support or oppose the death penalty for violent crimes?

2005

2015

63%

65%

Support

26%

27%

Oppose

10%

8%

Don’t Know/Unsure

*

*

Refused

Should North Carolina help poor families provide good early childhood development and day care opportunities for their children?

2005

2015

87%

85%

Yes

8%

9%

No

5%

5%

Don’t Know/Unsure

—

*

Refused

(If “Yes” is the response above:)

Do you think the best way to help poor families is to provide …

2005

2015

32%

29%

Tax credits to parents for each pre-school aged child

45%

51%

Government grants to day care centers and other service providers

3%

4%

Neither

11%

8%

Both

10%

8%

Don’t Know/Unsure

—

—

Refused

(For all responses to the above:)

What is the best way to help poor families provide health care for their children?

2005

2015

32%

38%

Tax credits to parents to purchase private health coverage

47%

48%

Expand government health insurance programs

5%

—

Neither

7%

—

Both

9%

11%

Don’t Know/Unsure

—

3%

Refused

To the best of your knowledge, at the current time, do Republicans or Democrats control the North Carolina State Senate?

2005

2015

35%

77%

Republicans

35%

9%

Democrats

30%

14%

Don’t Know/Unsure

—

—

Refused

And, at the current time, do Republicans or Democrats control the North Carolina House of Representatives?

2005

2015

24%

66%

Republicans

33%

9%

Democrats

42%

25%

Don’t Know/Unsure

*

—

Refused

Thinking about political parties, which political party in North Carolina would you say provides the best solutions to our problems, (ROTATE) the Republicans or the Democrats?

2005

2015

32%

37%

Republicans

33%

35%

Democrats

16%

17%

Neither

8%

4%

Both

12%

8%

Don’t Know/Unsure

*

*

Refused

Now, please tell me if you agree or disagree with the following statements …

Agree

Disagree

Don’t Know

Refused

There have been a number of scandals in North Carolina government and major changes need to be made.

2015

62%

23%

13%

1%

2005

71%

16%

12%

—

Jobs and growth are more important than environmental concerns.

2015

63%

27%

9%

1%

2005

58%

30%

11%

—

On the issue of abortion, are you

2005

2015

55%

50%

Pro-life

39%

43%

Pro-choice

6%

6%

Don’t Know/Unsure

*

1%

Refused

Now I just have a few questions for statistical purposes, and then we’ll be finished….

First, in what year were you born?

2005

2015

6%

18%

Age: 18-34

13%

15%

35-44

21%

20%

45-54

26%

20%

55-64

34%

27%

65+

Would you say you are a liberal or conservative in your political beliefs?

2005

2015

52%

45%

Total Conservative

16%

20%

Moderate

29%

30%

Total Liberal

13%

11%

Very Liberal

16%

19%

Somewhat Liberal

16%

20%

Moderate

25%

26%

Somewhat Conservative

27%

19%

Very Conservative

3%

4%

Don’t Know/Refused

(If answered “conservative” above)

Would you say that you are primarily a conservative because of social issues such as abortion and gun control or economic issues such as taxes and budgets?

2005

2015

26%

31%

Social

28%

33%

Economic

44%

33%

Both

3%

2%

Don’t Know/Unsure

*

*

Refused

(If answered “liberal” above,)

Would you say that you are primarily a liberal because of social issues such as abortion and gun control or economic issues such as taxes and budgets?

About the 2005 poll: The poll of 1,000 registered voters was conducted May 3-9, 2005 by Tel Opinion Research of Buffalo, New York. All respondents were part of a fully representative sample of registered voters in North Carolina who had voted in the 2002 and 2004 general elections. The confidence interval associated with a sample of this size is such that: 95 percent of the time, results from 1,000 interviews (registered voters) will be within plus/minus 3.2 percent of the “true values.”

About the 2015 poll: This poll of 600 registered voters in North Carolina was conducted May 5-7, 2015 by National Research, Inc., of Holmdel, NJ. All respondents were part of a fully representative sample of registered general election voters in North Carolina. Thirty percent of the respondents were cell phone-only users. For purposes of this study, voters interviewed had to have voted in at least one of the past two general elections (2012, 2014) or be newly registered to vote since November 1, 2014. The confidence interval associated with a sample of this size is such that: 95 percent of the time, results from 600 interviews (registered voters) will be within +-4% of the “True Values.”

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