Weather and Traffic

Rainy season has begun, forecasters say … but where’s the rain?

More hot and dry weather is on tap for Palm Beach. (Credit: NWS-Miami)

The rainy season began in South Florida on May 26, the National Weather Service in Miami says.

All of the factors except one seem to be in place for a return to afternoon thunderstorms and relief for parched Palm Beach County – rain. Despite the announcement this week, the long-range forecast through the middle of next week calls for very dry conditions with brisk winds off the Atlantic.

Precipitation chances increase slightly to 20 percent Tuesday through Thursday. There’s been talk of getting some of that Caribbean moisture up into South Florida next week, but it hasn’t been showing up in the forecast.

“The beginning of the 2011 rainy season on May 26th was marked by an increase in showers over the coastal waters of South Florida, especially during the night and morning hours,” NWS-Miami forecasters said in a report this week. “This is usually a sign that the atmosphere is moist and unstable enough to support near daily showers and thunderstorms over the peninsula and the surrounding coastal waters without significant influence from large-scale weather systems.

“Nevertheless, latest computer model projections suggest that there will be little rainfall across South Florida over the next several days. This is resulting in a slow and gradual onset of the daily summer rainfall patterns, rather than an abrupt one. The slow start to this rainy season will have implications on the duration of the ongoing drought across South Florida.”

As I mentioned Wednesday, Palm Beach International Airport reported the driest winter-spring season on record with 10.45 inches of rain from Oct. 2 through May 31. The previous record dry period was 13.23 inches set in 1971. It was also a record dry period in Fort Lauderdale.

However, the Weather Service still insists that June rainfall totals will be “near normal” – that’s 8.11 inches (which means we only have 8.11 inches to go). And forecasters are predicting above average rainfall as we get into mid- and late-summer.

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