Egypt Freight Transport and Shipping Report

About This Report

Abstract:

Egyptian total trade in real terms is set to slightly slip in y-o-y terms in ---- compared to -- months previous (-.- annual gains in ---- compared to a forecast -.- in ----). While unemployment is relatively high, constraining demand to some extent, the fact that Egypt has a population of --mn, the largest market in the Arab world, is a very positive factor over the medium to longer term for the country s trade outlook. ...Egyptian total trade in real terms is set to slightly slip in y-o-y terms in ---- compared to -- months previous (-.- annual gains in ---- compared to a forecast -.- in ----). While unemployment is relatively high, constraining demand to some extent, the fact that Egypt has a population of --mn, the largest market in the Arab world, is a very positive factor over the medium to longer term for the country s trade outlook. A key recent development in the Egyptian economy has been the devaluation of the Egyptian pound by -- by the Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) in March ---- and announced it was preparing to adopt a flexible exchange rate. We expect the Egyptian pound will remain around current levels of EGP-.----/ USD over the coming two quarters, before the CBE devalues the pound by another -- . This move would result in higher imported inflation in Egypt, but will be no panacea to Egypt s sluggish growth throughout the course of ----.

...BMI View: The key factor underpinning our short and medium-term forecasts for the various freight modes in Egypt will be declining tourist numbers due to instability in the region regarding terrorism, which will have a detrimental impact on imports of goods as the populace tighten their collective belts. Tourism is a vital aspect of Egypt s economy and, therefore, the fact that -.-mn tourists visited the country in Q- ----, compared to -.-mn in Q- ----, is proving to be a substantial headache to the Egyptian government. ...BMI View: The key factor underpinning our short and medium-term forecasts for the various freight modes in Egypt will be declining tourist numbers due to instability in the region regarding terrorism, which will have a detrimental impact on imports of goods as the populace tighten their collective belts. Tourism is a vital aspect of Egypt s economy and, therefore, the fact that -.-mn tourists visited the country in Q- ----, compared to -.-mn in Q- ----, is proving to be a substantial headache to the Egyptian government. However, that said, growth is set to be positive across the modes in ----, with air freight leading the way with forecast y-o-y growth of -.- . ...However, that said, growth is set to be positive across the modes in ----, with air freight leading the way with forecast y-o-y growth of -.- . This is predicated on our belief that trade dynamics in Egypt will continue to improve going forward, due to a stabilisation in the overarching political landscape.

...Road and rail modes are both set to register more muted annual growth in ---- and over our forecast period, compared to ---- s figures as consumers feel the pinch of more expensive imported goods. Both of these modes will register a slight drop in ---- s annual growth compared to -- months previous. ...

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