Census: Tories could benefit as census points to new ridings

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OTTAWA — Canadian voters will likely send a more ethnically diverse mix of MPs to Parliament in the next election, and the rising influence of the country's suburbs on national politics will only grow stronger, suggest new census data released Wednesday.

And with the House of Commons set to grow by 30 seats in the 2015 election, the governing Conservatives may have the most to gain from a planned redesign of the electoral map.

That's because it appears likely many of the new seats will be carved out of existing ridings in suburban belts surrounding big cities such as Toronto, Vancouver, Calgary and Edmonton — all areas where the Tories have already established a foothold.

Indeed, of the 30 ridings in the country with the largest populations, 26 are currently held by Conservative MPs.

Those ridings are where changes to electoral boundaries are likely to be made and new ridings could emerge.

As well, it's expected many of the new ridings will include a high percentage of ethnic voters — increasing the odds that parties will nominate candidates whose ethnicity reflects that of the constituents.

Matthew Mendelsohn, director of the University of Toronto's Mowat Centre, told Postmedia News the census data points to a new political reality in this country.

"It's a rise of people of different ethnic groups; it's a rise of suburban Canada; and it's a strengthening of B.C., Alberta and Ontario in their weight in Confederation."

Mendelsohn predicted the changes will be evident in the makeup of the next Parliament.

"It is likely to be more multicultural, more made up of people who have not been historically engaged with the traditional national unity conversation in Canada, which is one of English-French and Quebec-rest-of-Canada. They will now have new narratives of immigrants and multiculturalism."

Conservative MP Kyle Seeback, who represents the country's second-most populous riding (Ontario's Brampton West, with 204,146 constituents) said forthcoming changes to electoral boundaries are needed to bring fairness to the system so that votes are, as much as possible, equal.

"In a lot of the ridings that are under-represented, there are a lot of new Canadians. And my riding fits that bill to a T. So they will be better represented. Their voice will be more equal."

Among the reams of data released by Statistics Canada on the country's population are figures that show how many Canadians live in each of the country's 308 federal ridings.

That data will form the centerpiece of a plan — enacted by law in Parliament in December — to increase the size of the House to 338 seats.

Of that total, Ontario is expected to get 15 extra seats, with British Columbia and Alberta each getting six seats, and Quebec getting three.

Ten independent commissions — one for each province — will now hold public hearings to determine how to redraw the electoral map.

This means that throughout the country, existing ridings will have their boundaries changed. And in the process, 30 new ridings will emerge.

It's a process that occurs about every decade or so, after each census.

It is impossible to fully predict how the riding redistribution process will unfold and how even the slightest change in boundaries will affect tight races in the next election.

While there is no exact science behind the arbitrary decisions on how to change the riding boundaries, there is a primarily objective: to provide equity for voters, especially those who feel underrepresented because they live in a riding with an excessively large population.

Indeed, the law requires that a riding's population be reasonably close to the typical population of a riding in that province — if possible, no more than 25 per cent above or below the average.

Key findings of the census results include:

• Oak-Ridges-Markham, a Conservative-held riding north of Toronto, stands as the country's largest. Its population grew by 35 per cent in the past five years — from 169,642 to 228,997;

• Of the 15 ridings in Ontario with the largest populations, all but one (Trinity-Spadina, held by the NDP) are already represented by Conservative MPs;

• Of the top six B.C. ridings, four are held by the Tories;

• Of the top six in Alberta, all are held by the Conservatives.

• Of the top three in Quebec, all are held by New Democrat MPs.

mkennedy@postmedia.com

Twitter.com/Mark_Kennedy_

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