Such a result would throw Britain back into the era of
coalition government and put Theresa May's future in
doubt.

The analysis has a large margin of error.

LONDON — Theresa May could be on course to lose her majority in
parliament, according to striking new analysis by one
of Britain's leading pollsters.

A new projection by
YouGov for the Times finds that the Conservatives are
set to lose twenty seats and Labour gain nearly 30 seats in next
week's general election. Such a result would completely defy
previous expectations.

It would cause a "hung parliament" with no party having overall
control and throw Britain back into the era of coalition
government.

YouGov / Times Projection:

Conservatives: 310 seats (down from 330)

Labour: 257 seats (up from 229)

SNP: 50 (down from 54)

Liberal Democrats: 10 seats (up from 9)

Greens: 1 seat (unchanged)

It would also cast the prime minister's future into doubt
following her decision to call the snap election to
"strengthen my hand" in Brexit negotiations.

When the prime minister called the election last month, polls
suggested she was on course for a landslide majority with leads
of up to 24 points in some polls.

In the wake of Macron winning a landslide victory in the French
presidential election, May
raised expectations of winning an "equally strong
mandate" in the UK.

Overseeing a reversal in Conservative fortunes instead, would
likely cause major internal repercussions with May's party
and could even trigger a leadership challenge against her.

There has been a surge in support for Jeremy
Corbyn.Matt Cardy /
Getty

The YouGov model is based on one they claim to have
tested during the EU referendum, which successfully
forecast a win for Leave, against the predictions of most other
polls and commentators.

In order to come to their projection, they interviewed 50,000
people across the country over the course of a week and then
analysed their results alongside publicly available census,
demographic and electoral data.

Writing in the Times, YouGov's chief executive Stephen
Shakespeare says the model comes with a large margin of error,
suggesting that the Tories could still be on course for a
comfortable majority in line with some other recent polls.

"We know we run a risk publishing so much data in the heat of an
election but as data scientists we are committed to innovating to
increase both accuracy and specificity," Shakespeare says

Here comes Corbyn

The findings follow a surge in support for Jeremy Corbyn since
the start of the campaign. A
YouGov poll at the end of last week found that the Labour
leader now has a net favorability of minus 11 compared to the
minus 42 he had at the start of the campaign.

YouGov

By contrast, Theresa May's ratings have plummeted since the
launch of her party's manifesto and the
row over the so-called "dementia tax." The poll found the
prime minister had a net favorability of minus 8, just a few
points higher than Corbyn's.

The switch in public perceptions of Corbyn has followed a series
of
well-received manifesto policies and
campaign performances from the Labour leader. Corbyn's
recovery was complicated somewhat yesterday, however, when he
stumbled during an interview on
Radio 4's Woman's Hour. The Labour leader failed to
answer a question on the cost of Labour's flagship childcare
pledge and was filmed fruitlessly searching for the figure in his
manifesto and iPad.