NFL Outlook: The Pittsburgh Steelers are Projected to Finish Ahead of the Texans and Behind the Ravens in the AFC

Regular Season Recap and Upcoming Game Projections

By
Scout Staff

Aug 21, 2019
• 2 min read
UpdateAug 21, 2019, 6:17pm

SEASON FORECASTS AND FUTURES PICKS

There are 3 teams who have 20/1, 4.8% odds to win the Super Bowl. Our projection recommends not betting on them to win it all. Their 2.2% chance is #13 in the league. In simulations, they win the AFC 4.8% of the time and are not a good value at 10/1, 9.1%. Our projection is leaning on them to win under 9 games. The Steelers are averaging 8.8 wins per sim. At -110 the Steelers are not a good value to make the playoffs with a 49.3% chance. Their odds of winning their division are 8/5, 38.5%. They win the division in 30.5% of simulations. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #7 in the AFC.

REGULAR SEASON RECAP AND UPCOMING GAMES

They were expected to win 60% of their games last season so their 9-6-1 met expectations. They were solid against the spread going 8-7-1 for (+30 profit). They went over 8 times and came in under 8 times. In their next game vs the Patriots they are only winning 30% of the simulations. The table below shows their upcoming games, their simulation based win percentage and their recent head to head record (WL, ATS, OU).

OPPONENT

SIM%

H2H WL

H2H ATS

H2H OU

9/8 NE

30%

1-0

1-0

0-1

9/15 SEA

54%

0-0

0-0

0-0

9/22 SF

49%

0-0

0-0

0-0

9/30 CIN

73%

2-0

1-1

0-2

10/6 BAL

54%

1-1

1-1

0-2

TEAM OFFENSIVE AND DEFENSIVE STATS WITH LEAGUE RANKINGS

They are an elite scoring team based on points per game, which make sense given their strong yards per play rank. They are a top 10 team based on yards per play allowed but only an average team in points allowed. They are the #18 ranked defense in opponents' TD rate (passing and rushing TDs per offensive play).

TEAM OFFENSE (League Rank):

SITUATION

PTS/G

TD/PLAY

YPP

PASSYD

YPA

RUSHYD

YPC

TO/GAME

Past 16 Games

26.8 (#6)

4.9% (#7)

6.4 (#4)

323 (#2)

7.5 (#13)

90 (#31)

4.2 (#24)

1.6 (#26)

On the Road

23.5 (#12)

4.3% (#16)

6.5 (#2)

352 (#1)

7.7 (#9)

84 (#30)

4.0 (#27)

2.1 (#29)

At Home

30.0 (#5)

5.6% (#4)

6.3 (#12)

295 (#9)

7.3 (#18)

97 (#28)

4.4 (#15)

1.1 (#12)

Last 4 Games

20.5 (#21)

3.6% (#22)

6.2 (#9)

302 (#4)

7.2 (#12)

82 (#29)

4.0 (#19)

1.5 (#14)

TEAM DEFENSE:

SITUATION

PTS/G

TD/PLAY

YPP

PASSYD

YPA

RUSHYD

YPC

TO/GAME

Past 16 Games

22.5 (#16)

4.3% (#18)

6.0 (#8)

253 (#14)

7.1 (#11)

96 (#6)

4.2 (#9)

0.9 (#29)

Road Games

22.5 (#11)

4.3% (#19)

5.8 (#7)

250 (#13)

6.9 (#6)

97 (#7)

4.0 (#7)

1.0 (#22)

Home Games

22.5 (#21)

4.2% (#21)

6.2 (#12)

255 (#18)

7.4 (#18)

95 (#7)

4.3 (#14)

0.9 (#28)

Last 4 Games

19.5 (#10)

3.7% (#14)

6.3 (#12)

256 (#22)

7.6 (#28)

83 (#6)

4.1 (#18)

0.8 (#25)

TEAM FANTASY LEADERS

The table below show the most valuable fantasy players on the team led by James Conner who is projected to be the #5 RB. The Better Option column shows the player directly above him and the Better Than column shows the player directly below him in the projected position rankings.