3D Printers Will Not Come to Every Household (Just Yet)

Can 3D printers avoid various pitfalls and progress to the point where they are as popular as 2D printers?

I'm sorry to say that I find the talk of 3D printers on every kitchen table overly optimistic. Don't get me wrong; 3D printers are wonderful devices, but the question is whether they will ultimately gain hold in the consumer market. With so much press attention coupled with the factors that need to be examined, can anything be done to ensure that 3D printers are not a passing fad?

ORDbot Quantum FDM printer.

3D printing technology needs to rise above the hype and become useful to a broad set of end users. In essence, it needs to be more than just a novelty item. I believe we will see 3D printing take hold in manufacturing, but, as a common device in the home, I am not as sure. For it to take hold, there are some major areas 3D printing at home needs to address. Here are the four main topics that still offer substantial hurdles to mass adoption:

User mindset

Content

Value proposition

Materials

Let's consider each of these topics in a little more detail.

User mindset
We live in a world in which many do not have a desire or need to build or design anything. There is little incentive for people to get their hands dirty. Because of this, many lack manufacturing knowledge and ability. In this area, though, there is hope. There are trends that are starting to bring back a desire to build and create in the home.

There is a need to cultivate a desire to tinker and create.

The Maker movement has shown that people can design and build objects. In effect, it has rekindled curiosity. This movement is picking up speed. This is a positive step toward encouraging the use of devices like 3D printers, as well as other manufacturing methods, in the home environment.

Content
Just having a 3D printer in the house is not enough; a user needs to have something to make with it. Content poses a much larger problem than I think many are willing to acknowledge. Do you have a repository of 3D models, or do you try to encourage original content? What about scanning objects as a source for models? I think all these elements will have a place, but it will be interesting to see where the market shakes out, because each of these items has its own challenges.

The repository method is attractive, but it will be fraught with copyright and patent issues. This could be the worst combination of the smartphone wars dashed with some RIAA-type groups for extra fun. (The Recording Industry Association of America represents recording industry distributors in the United States.) Similarly, using 3D scanning will open up issues that have yet to be seen by the courts. Can you have fair use of a copied 3D object? OEMs could enter the legal battle, because many of them make significant amounts of profit on replacement parts. I believe we have yet to see significant movement in these legal areas. There is yet to be a financial incentive for companies to make movement in the courts.

If the other two methods become legal landmines, that leaves original content creation as the method of choice. This will require the MCAD market to innovate and be laid open for disruption of their business models. Many MCAD products are expensive, though this is partially due to lack of competition and lack of market size. If the market were to expand by a few orders of magnitude, how would it react? One challenge would be to encourage people to learn the skills required to use MCAD-type programs. A big challenge for the MCAD providers will be to make a complex program as simple as a smartphone application. If significant amounts of time were required to learn the product, this would limit market growth. Too many people are just not inclined to learn complex software.

I see the issue of content being one of the biggest obstacles to the widespread adoption of 3D printing. This is not as much a technical issue and it is a potential legal landmine. It is not insurmountable, but it will require time to build up momentum, as well as some pioneers willing to get thrown to the lions as the legal issues get worked out. In the meantime, MCAD vendors may find a market opportunity to expand their user base.

I guess 3D printers for the consumer market may have to include a 3D scanner.

For example, you want to print a copy of your keys, just put the keys in the machine, press a key, and you've got a copy a few minutes later. Same for other objects.

Printed food may be another application for the consumer market, so you print some fancy chocolate figurine with your kids birthday, and so on.

If manufacturers provide 3D files for user serviceable parts of their device, that would really be a big boost for 3D printer, but I'm not sure this can realistically happen, due to different materials, and legal issues due to IP and potential litigations in case a printed part breaks.

I really like this thought. I would love to have local Kinkos type stores that provide this service. I think that there is a lot of room to improve on the current proto services that are offered online.

You bring up an interesting though, could you have a 3D printer that could also do standard 2D printing. That is an area that I think has yet to really be explored, but I could see this happening. I can envision a few ways to do it with ink jet technology.

Though, back to your point, I also do not see 3D printers taking over for 2D printers, but there are those that think that it will be as prolific as the standard 2D printer. I agree, though, that there remain significant roadblocks to see anything close to that.

I see some who are especially enthusiastic about this kind of technology adopting it, but for the most part there is no reason to think that 2D printers are going to go away. They are cheap, practical and--as this article points out--easy to use. The difficulty of learning the software and operating the hardware of a 3D printer will be a huge barrier. If Apple or a company that copies Apple gets into this space, that's one thing, but for now I don't see this taking off so much-although the technology itself is more than a little intriguing.

Yes, most people can own them but very few do...there is just too much hassle in making sure it works (tonner, connectivity etc)...I use 10 years old laser printer (not 3D of course) which works great except it doesn't connect to anything I have at home with the exception of one old PC...this is how industry is forcing printer upgrades...maybe they will attempt to do the same with 3D? "we only have 3D models in stock sir" ;-)...Kris

"I'd say a closer match to 3-D printer are photo printers (especially the large ones from Canon, Epson, & HP). How many people have them? Only the dedicated photo enthusiasts."

This is an excellent analogy. Photo printers have reached a low enough price and ease of use point for them to be ubiquitous. Everyone has or could have the capability to print their own high quality photos at home on real photo paper, but I suspect only a minority actually does so.

And just as with photo printing, 3D printing may become more commonly associated -- for most consumers -- with a service provided by the local drugstore or big box retailer. Upload your files, then come to the store tomorrow to pick up your objects.

I too agree that there is a lot of hype, but then again, there are a few companies that have been able to hype products so much that people end up purchasing them without ever having a real productive need for them. Is this the path that 3D printing is on? I do not think so, I not sure that there is much to draw people down a path like that. Then again, if Apple got into the industry, anything could happen ;)

You make an interesting parallel. In a way, if these devices do not become too popular, they may be able to skirt under some of the legal challenges that could present themselves in the future as there is not enough money in it for the big companies to go after that income stream.