Despite widespread predictions to the contrary, the nation is
unlikely to experience a general shortage of public-school teachers in
the 1990's, two new reports from the RAND Corporation conclude.

Researchers from the think tank---which in 1984 issued a report
sounding the alarm for a predicted shortage-examined data on Indiana
teachers only. But they say their findings are applicable to the nation
as a whole because they hinge on trends affecting the entire teacher
workforce.

Some of the patterns that the researchers discovered among Indiana
teachers contradict several popular notions that have led to the fears
about a teacher shortage.

For example, the studies paint a picture of far less turnover in the
teaching profession, far less reliance on new education-school
graduates to fill jobs, and a far greater number of women choosing to
teach than had been assumed, the authors note.

Previous studies--including the 1984 RAND report--had predicted a
teacher shortage based on low enrollments in teacher-education
programs, increasing K-12 student enrollments, an aging teaching force,
low salaries, and a growing array of career choices for women.

These studies, in turn, led the RAND researchers Sheila Nataraj
Kirby, David W. Grissmer, and Lisa Hudson to conduct the analysis of
Indiana's supply of teachers. They chose to examine Indiana because the
state has compiled information on its teachers for 24 years,
accumulating one of the most extensive data bases in the nation.

The researchers supplemented that information with a survey of some
3,000 teachers who were hired to teach in Indiana during the 198788
school year.

Ms. Kirby and Mr. Grissmer also conducted a study of how many
Indiana teachers leave the profession permanently each year.

The results of the two studies suggest there will be no teacher
shortage in the 1990's, the authors maintain, even though the student
population nationwide is expected to increase by 7 percent between now
and the year 2000.

Low Rate of Attrition

The researchers found that the permanent "attrition rate" for
Indiana teachers has fallen steadily since the late 1960's, from 11
percent in 1969 to 3 percent or 4 percent in 1987.

Among teachers who have been in the classroom for five years or
less-those who tend to leave in the greatest numbers--the attrition
rate of about one-third stands at a 25-year low, the study found. In
1965-66, half of the teachers in the state had permanently left
teaching by the end of their fifth year.

The authors attribute their Indiana findings to factors that affect
the entire teaching force. For example, most teachers are between 35
and 55 years of age, a time when attrition is low in all
professions.

The fact that more women in their 30's are entering teaching also
has contributed to lower attrition rates, the study notes, since this
age group tends to be more professionally stable than people in their
20's.

Moreover, because two-thirds of teachers are women--and the drop in
attrition has been most apparent among women teachers--the authors
believe that teachers are simply following the labor-force trends among
women.

Women now are less prone than in the past to take prolonged absences
from their jobs to raise families, the researchers point out. When they
do leave work, women today are more likely to go back, and they return
to the job faster than they once did.

Just as the number of women in many occupations is rising, the study
found, so is the number of women entering teaching. In Indiana, the
number of men hired to teach has declined from 30 percent of new hires
in the late 1960's to about 22 percent in 1988-89.

Finally, the report concludes, the attrition rate has fallen because
higher salary levels have kept more people in the profession.

"Over all, the teacher labor market has been strongly influenced by
general demographic and laborforce trends," the study says.

'Nontraditional' Candidates

In a separate study on the state's supply of teachers, the
researchers discovered that newly graduated young teachers account for
only about one-fourth of Indiana's new teachers hired to fill annual
vacancies.

While some projections of teacher shortages had focused on the gap
between this traditional source of new teachers and the need for
teachers, the new RAND study found evidence of an increasing number of
"nontraditional'' teacher candidates.

For example, older teachers who were inexperienced made up another
20 percent of new hires. These were individuals who had delayed
entering teaching until age 25 or older, either because they had not
finished college, not become licensed to teach, or had worked in other
occupations.

"Migrating" teachers coming into the state from other locations made
up another 20 percent to 25 percent of new hires. About 40 percent of
those teachers had attended high school or college in Indiana.

Teachers who had taught previously in the state and were returning
to the profession after a hiatus accounted for another 30 percent of
the new hires, the study found. In all, inexperienced teachers now make
up a much smaller proportion of annual hires in the state--about 40 to
45 percent--than they did during the 1966-67 school year.

At that time, the study found, they accounted for more than 60
percent of new hires.

The proportion of hires who are returning teachers has grown from 15
percent to 30 percent. These teachers are considered to be part of a
"reserve pool" of licensed individuals who may decide to teach under
certain conditions.

Although the studies conclude that there is little reason for
concern about a teacher shortage in this decade, the authors warn that
there will be "cause for concern after the turn of the century."

At that time, they say, increased retirements, smaller pools of
returning and migrating teachers, and a declining number of women
between the ages of 25 and 35 will converge to reduce the supply of
teachers. The authors also say that the nation cannot expect
significantly more women to enter the labor force.

The issue of future teacher supply will be the subject of a
forthcoming RAND report.

Copies of "New and Returning Teachers in Indiana: Sources of
Supply," number R-4049-LE, and the forthcoming "Patterns of Attrition
Among Indiana Teachers, 19651987," number R-4076-LE, may be ordered by
writing to RAND's library and distribution department, 1700 Main St.,
P.O. Box 2138, Santa Monica, Calif. 90407-2138, or by calling (310)
393-0411, extension 6686.

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