Jumpin' Jay's owner Jay McSharry didn't know about the Huntsman campaign stop at his restaurant. He also doesn't know how often the campaigns have stopped by for a meal. And while he would welcome more primary-related business from the campaigns or the national media following them, he's not sure how much, if any, of an increase he will get from the 2012 campaign season.

"Last year (2011) was a great one for us, but we're not sure how much primary business we will get," he said. "January is a slow month for us anyway and we're talking about how it would nice to get a bump (in business) with the primary."

While the national spotlight is on the state in advance of Tuesday's presidential primary, what has become clear over the past four election cycles is that while the cost of presidential campaigns has gone up, that rarely translates into a sizable economic boost for the state during the presidential primary period.

The most recent quarterly campaign filings from November show a few five-figure expenditures in the region — the Mitt Romney campaign spent $15,000 for an event at the Wentworth by the Sea hotel in New Castle and the Huntsman campaign spent $10,000 at the Exeter Inn — but most of the spending was more modest. The campaign of Rick Perry spent $400 for an event at One Liberty Lane in Hampton and Ron Paul's campaign reported spending $511.29 at the Courtyard Portsmouth hotel.

University of New Hampshire economist Ross Gittell co-authored what was called a first-of-its-kind study of the economic impact of the New Hampshire primary following the 2000 contests. The study was commissioned by the New Hampshire Presidential Library and Gittell and co-author Brian Gottlob emerged with results that challenged the conventional wisdom of the economic impact of the presidential primaries.

"They were surprised by our findings," Gittell said. What was surprising is that the economic impact, "while not insignificant," he said, was limited. "What tended to happen is that people saw all the activity and that there were economic benefits," Gittell said. "But we found it was not as significant as people expected."

The direct and indirect impact in 2000 was an estimated $260 million, but more than 80 percent of that was taken up by television ad buys.

"That's a small part of the annual state economy," Gittell said. "What we see is expenditures concentrated for specific times and locations in the state."

He said direct spending on the 2012 primary will not likely come near the more than $21 million spent for two highly contested primaries in 2008. There are economic and political reasons for a decrease in spending on travel, lodging, meals or even staff. Both campaigns and national media organizations have become much more budget conscious with fewer campaign stops and overnight stays. The crowding of the primary calendar has changed the campaign dynamic as New Hampshire has far less time on its own between Iowa and the next contest in South Carolina on Jan. 21.

With Romney, the former governor of Massachusetts, leading by double-digit margins in almost all public opinion polls, Gittell said there is also a political calculation by the remaining Republican candidates to decide how much money to spend in a state they may not win.

"There's one contested primary, and Romney is the clear frontrunner and even a favorite son," he said.

McSharry said even he's not sure how much of a bump, if any, he's gotten in the past. When he reviewed his January 2008 revenues, he said business was actually down 2 percent for the month from the year before, even though Portsmouth was a busy place in the final days of that primary.

"We did get more business but it's possible that we (were) hurt by snowstorms later that month," he said.

Some restaurants don't want the increased attention or extra business a candidate can bring. As reported in the Portsmouth Herald on Thursday, Colby's Breakfast and Lunch on Daniel Street in Portsmouth put up a sign saying "No Politicians No Exceptions."

Owner Jeremy Colby went so far as to criticize the candidate pop-in appearances. "I find it incredibly rude," he said, adding, "I don't appreciate Joe Blow coming in here and whoring around the dining room for votes."

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