tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post6503515721782501052..comments2018-02-21T20:32:02.155+11:00Comments on Dr Kevin Bonham: Reachtel: It's All About LyonsKevin Bonhamhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06845545257440242894noreply@blogger.comBlogger6125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-66883808260700833142017-07-30T14:36:04.340+10:002017-07-30T14:36:04.340+10:00Well firstly it has to be a Wilkie-backed independ...Well firstly it has to be a Wilkie-backed independent who people have actually heard of, so the choice is probably Kristie Johnston, Kristie Johnston or Kristie Johnston. Assuming such a candidate runs and has a more coherent rationale for people to vote for them than &quot;Andrew Wilkie says so&quot;, they will probably pull votes from all parties. However the problem is that polling keeps showing the majors with their two quotas each and the Greens usually with their one, so it&#39;s challenging for someone else to knock any of the big three much below their quota and hence have any sort of chance.Kevin Bonhamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06845545257440242894noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-20708121754593169822017-07-24T10:31:57.762+10:002017-07-24T10:31:57.762+10:00It&#39;s plausible Ellis could win as an independe...It&#39;s plausible Ellis could win as an independent but she would not be getting major party preferences to do so, on current numbers. She would probably need to get over the Greens and then beat the third Liberal. Preference flows in Hare-Clark are not all that strong because of exhaust and the lack of how-to-vote cards.Kevin Bonhamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06845545257440242894noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-67689904911531049132017-07-24T09:28:30.070+10:002017-07-24T09:28:30.070+10:00Hi again Kevin - fully acknowledge that I am clutc...Hi again Kevin - fully acknowledge that I am clutching at straws to find a bit of excitement outside Lyons but if Neroli Ellis was to run in as an independent (6000 votes in recent Leg co election) and outpoll the Greens could she potentially snag the fifth seat on the back of green and Labour preferences?David Mohrhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09039479847163405862noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-80464216360390351882017-07-23T12:22:00.926+10:002017-07-23T12:22:00.926+10:00True but Llewellyn is retiring so White will be th...True but Llewellyn is retiring so White will be the only sitting ALP MP in Lyons at the election.Kevin Bonhamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06845545257440242894noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-16459916676333443352017-07-23T10:49:06.814+10:002017-07-23T10:49:06.814+10:00Hi Kevin.
What effect would a Wilkie backed indepe...Hi Kevin.<br />What effect would a Wilkie backed independent have in the seat of Denison?David Mohrhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09039479847163405862noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-61036607645300603502017-07-23T10:05:22.028+10:002017-07-23T10:05:22.028+10:00Just wanted to note, Labor holds two seats in Lyon...Just wanted to note, Labor holds two seats in Lyons, David Llewellyn and Bec White. Jessica Greenehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12122844878464007877noreply@blogger.com