When markets are volatile, forecasts tend to get more extreme. Photo: AP

At any one time there are numerous market forecasts around ranging from extremely bearish to overly optimistic. When markets are very volatile, the bearish forecasts become more extreme and the most extreme can be expected to get the most attention. Bad news sells.

Which doesn't mean RBS can't be right, to use a double negative. As has been very well canvassed, there are plenty of issues to worry about - 2016 is very much a continuation of 2015 - but the main reason for RBS's alarmist call are the suppositions that China is about to crash and take the world down with it.

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The China bear industry has been predicting China's imminent fall from the moment it started to rise. They've been consistently wrong for three decades or so. One of these years they'll be right, but the evidence is not overwhelming that it will be this year.

Research undertaken by the IMF showed that over the last five years the impact of growth surprises from China on global equity prices had almost quadrupled. Photo: Bloomberg

China can't remain immune from cycles as it haltingly liberalises its economy. It's part of growing up. The great fundamental underpinning its economy though - the desire of people to have a better standard of living and their willingness to work for it - isn't changing and has a long way to run.

Beijing is not without ammunition to try to limit the pain of the nation's transition to relying more on consumption, but even if you're prepared to buy that first RBS supposition - that China's about to have a hard landing - the second one of the world crashing needs to be tested.

"The good news is that the numbers, as I read them, don't seem big enough," writes Krugman. "The bad news is that I could be wrong, because global contagion often seems to end up being worse than hard numbers say it should."

The important thing about "the numbers" is that China's financial markets aren't as entwined with the rest of the world as US markets were when the great bank fraud of the subprime crisis hit.

A greater danger may come from what RBS has just done - spreading fear as it gets its name in headlines for something other than ripping off customers and rorting markets.

Writes Krugman: "I worry that China may export its woes in ways back-of-the-envelope calculations miss, that the Middle Kingdom's troubles will one way or another have the effect of depressing investment spending in America and Europe as well as in other emerging markets."

It's investment spending - or the lack of it - that remains Australia's main concern. Most other economic indicators here aren't bad.

Receiving much less attention than RBS is the 2016 outlook by IBISWorld founder, Phil Ruthven. In it, Ruthven emphasises one of his regular themes: our recessions come from negative investment spending, not from consumers or exports. And he has the graphs to back that up.

While our investment remains subpar, he sees it improving this year with 2016 likely to be a bit better than 2015.

Phil, you're never going to get front page headlines with a view like that.