Philippines Inflation December 2015

In December, consumer prices rose 0.2% over the previous month, coming in below November’s 0.5% increase. The rise mainly came on the back of higher prices for transport as well as housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels.

Inflation recorded a second consecutive increase, rising to 1.5% in December (November: +1.1% year-on-year) and marking the highest print in seven months. Meanwhile, annual average inflation, which is the reference rate used by the Central Bank as a guide for monetary policy, fell from 1.5% in November to 1.4% in December, marking a new record low. As a result, average inflation remained below the Central Bank’s inflation target range of 2.0% to 4.0% for a third consecutive month. The Central Bank highlighted that, “the marked decline in global oil prices in the past year was behind the fall in annual average inflation to below the target range for the first time in several years.”

Core consumer prices, which exclude volatile items such as food and oil, in December rose 0.4% over the previous month, coming in above November’s 0.3% increase. Finally, core inflation rested at November’s 2.0%.

Met the why particular Consensus Forecast panelists expect annual inflation to average 2.6% in 2016, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s projection. For 2017, panelists see average inflation of 3.2%.

Philippine exports contracted in November, after 12 months of expansions, mainly on the back of plummeting demand from Japan and a notable decrease in overseas orders to the United States and China, which more than offset stronger demand from Hong Kong and Singapore.