Say Goodbye to Lower Gas Prices

That early winter break you've been getting at the gasoline pump? It's beginning to show signs of cracking.

Gasoline prices remain below $3 a gallon in at least half the outlets in 14 states. But the national average crept up 3 cents to $3.30 a gallon in the past week and is up 8 cents since hitting a 2012 low of $3.22 in mid-December.

It's likely to get worse in coming weeks. Crude oil prices are up about $10 a barrel in the past month; benchmark West Texas Intermediate crude closed at $93.09 a barrel Friday, finishing the week up 2.5%.

"The celebration is over," says Patrick DeHaan, senior energy analyst at gasbuddy.com, which operates 250 North American price-tracking websites. DeHaan expects prices to rise another 35 cents a gallon through early April before peaking at about $3.95 a gallon. That's on par with the 2012 peak of $3.94 but below the all-time record of $4.11 in 2008.

Still, DeHaan and AAA expect 2013 gas to average less than $3.60 a gallon, ending a string of record high averages since 2008. Last year, the average price of gas was about $3.61 a gallon, up from $3.52 in 2011.

Despite decreasing demand, last year's prices were affected by global oil prices and limited refinery capacity. Refinery shutdowns and reduced production in California, Washington and Illinois caused regional and national wholesale prices to surge before seasonal demand slumped in the fall.

Pump prices fell nearly 15% between Sept. 14 and Dec. 22, according to AAA, on falling demand and higher inventories.

DeHaan expects less volatility and smaller price increases in the Midwest and on the West Coast, but refinery woes could again plague the market.

"Americans think there should be this magic formula based on oil supplies, but refineries are the big wildcard," he says. "And even with higher energy production, increased fuel efficiency and lower consumption, we still may face rising gas prices."