DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK------------------------------AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NORMAN WASLOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.6 WEST. NORMAN ISMOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/H...AND A NORTHWARDMOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ON THEFORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF NORMAN IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALLIN THE WARNING AREA THIS EVENING OR TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHERGUSTS. A LITTLE STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE BEFORE LANDFALL...WITHWEAKENING EXPECTED AFTER THE CENTER MOVES INLAND.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220KM...MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND----------------------RAINFALL...NORMAN IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALLACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF12 INCHES...ACROSS THE MEXICAN STATES OF SINALOA AND FAR WESTERNDURANGO. THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASHFLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.

SATELLITE DATA AND SHIP OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE LOWPRESSURE AREA BETWEEN THE WEST COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO AND BAJACALIFORNIA NOW HAS A CLOSED SURFACE CIRCULATION. SHIPS OBSERVATIONSOF 45 TO 50 KT FROM ELEVATED ANEMOMETERS SUGGEST THAT THE INITIALINTENSITY IS AROUND 40 KT...AND ADVISORIES ARE BEING INITIATED ONTROPICAL STORM NORMAN AT THIS TIME. NORMAN IS SITUATED IN ANENVIRONMENT OF 15 TO 20 KT OF SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR...AS MICROWAVEIMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE SURFACE CENTER IS DISPLACED ABOUT ADEGREE TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION. THIS SHEAR ISFORECAST BY THE GLOBAL MODELS TO CONTINUE UNTIL THE CENTER MOVESINLAND...SO THE NHC FORECAST ONLY SHOWS A LITTLE INTENSIFICATIONBEFORE LANDFALL. AFTER THE CENTER MOVES INLAND...QUICK WEAKENING ISEXPECTED...AND THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY 48 HOURS.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 360/14...AS NORMAN IS SITUATEDBETWEEN A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND AMID-LEVEL LOW TO THE WEST. A GENERAL NORTHWARD MOTION IS EXPECTEDDURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND NORMAN IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALLWITHIN 24 HOURS. AFTER LANDFALL...THE WEAKENING CYCLONE MAY TURNNORTHWESTWARD BEFORE DISSIPATING. THE NHC FORECAST IS NEAR THEMIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE THROUGH LANDFALL.

USERS ARE REMINDED NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THECENTER SINCE NORMAN HAS A LARGE AREA OF TROPICAL-STORM FORCEWINDS. IN ADDITION...HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING ARE ALSOEXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE MEXICAN STATES OF SINALOA AND FARWESTERN DURANGO.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK------------------------------AT 1100 AM PDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NORMAN WASLOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.6 WEST. NORMAN ISMOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/H...AND A NORTHWARDMOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ON THEFORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF NORMAN IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALLIN THE WARNING AREA LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHERGUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED BEFORE LANDFALL...WITHWEAKENING EXPECTED AFTER THE CENTER MOVES INLAND.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220KM...MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND----------------------RAINFALL...NORMAN IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALLACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF12 INCHES...ACROSS THE MEXICAN STATES OF SINALOA AND FAR WESTERNDURANGO. THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASHFLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OFTHE WARNING AREA THROUGH TONIGHT.

NEXT ADVISORY-------------NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT.

$$FORECASTER ROBERTS/BRENNAN

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DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK------------------------------AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NORMAN WASLOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.7 WEST. NORMAN ISMOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/H...AND A NORTHWARDMOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ON THEFORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF NORMAN IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALLIN THE WARNING AREA THIS EVENING OR TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHERGUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED BEFORE LANDFALL...WITHWEAKENING EXPECTED AFTER THE CENTER MOVES INLAND.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND----------------------RAINFALL...NORMAN IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALLACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF12 INCHES...ACROSS THE MEXICAN STATES OF SINALOA AND FAR WESTERNDURANGO. THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASHFLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OFTHE WARNING AREA THROUGH TONIGHT.

CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A LESS-ORGANIZED CLOUDPATTERN THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH THE PARTLY EXPOSED CIRCULATIONASSOCIATED WITH NORMAN IS WELL-DEFINED IN RADAR IMAGERY FROMGUASAVE MEXICO. BASED ON THE DETERIORATING CLOUD PATTERN THEINITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 35 KT. NORMAN IS IN A RATHER HARSHENVIRONMENT OF 30 TO 40 KT OF SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR...AS INDICATED ONTHE UW-CIMSS WIND SHEAR PRODUCT. AS A RESULT...THE CIRCULATION ISSEVERELY TILTED IN THE VERTICAL...WITH THE CONVECTIVE CANOPYDISPLACED ABOUT A DEGREE TO THE NORTH OF THE SURFACE CIRCULATION.THE GLOBAL MODELS AND THE SHIPS MODEL OUTPUT SHOW THE SHEARINCREASING AND BECOMING MORE WESTERLY AS THE CYCLONE APPROACHES THECOAST OF MEXICO. THEREFORE...LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTEDBEFORE LANDFALL. WEAKENING IS FORECAST AFTER NORMAN MOVES INLAND...AND THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY 36 HOURS.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 355/14. NORMAN IS CURRENTLY BEINGSTEERED NORTHWARD BY A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER CENTRAL MEXICO AND AMID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW SITUATED JUST WEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OFBAJA CALIFORNIA. THIS SYNOPTIC STEERING PATTERN SHOULD KEEP THECYCLONE ON A GENERAL NORTHWARD HEADING THROUGH DISSIPATION.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK------------------------------AT 500 PM PDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NORMAN WASLOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.9 WEST. NORMAN ISMOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/H...AND A NORTHWARDMOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ON THEFORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF NORMAN IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALLIN THE WARNING AREA TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHERGUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED BEFORE LANDFALL...WITHWEAKENING EXPECTED AFTER THE CENTER MOVES INLAND.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND----------------------RAINFALL...NORMAN IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALLACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF12 INCHES...ACROSS THE MEXICAN STATES OF SINALOA AND FAR WESTERNDURANGO. THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASHFLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OFTHE WARNING AREA THROUGH TONIGHT.

NEXT ADVISORY-------------NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT.

$$FORECASTER BERG/AVILA

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IT HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO LOCATE THE CENTER OF NORMAN IN SATELLITEIMAGERY...BUT MEXICAN RADAR FROM GUASAVE SUGGEST THAT THECENTER OF ROTATION IS ABOUT 20 N MI OFF THE COAST OF SINALOA. THECLOUD PATTERN HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME MORE DISORGANIZED...WITH ALLOF THE DEEP CONVECTION NOW TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER DUETO STRONG WESTERLY SHEAR. BASED ON THIS...IT IS ASSUMED THATNORMAN IS NO LONGER PRODUCING SUSTAINED TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDSAND HAS BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. A CONTINUED INCREASE INVERTICAL SHEAR AND INTERACTION WITH LAND SHOULD CAUSE NORMAN TODEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW BY SATURDAY MORNING AND DISSIPATE BYSUNDAY MORNING...IF NOT SOONER.

NORMAN IS SLOWING DOWN AND HAS TURNED NORTH-NORTHWEST WITH ANESTIMATED MOTION OF 345/9 KT. LOW-LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE BUILDINGACROSS NORTHWESTERN MEXICO DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND SHOULDCAUSE NORMAN TO SLOW DOWN FURTHER AND TURN NORTHWESTWARD BEFORE ITDISSIPATES. THE NEW NHC FORECAST HAS BEEN NUDGED A LITTLE WEST OFTHE PREVIOUS ONE SINCE SEVERAL OF THE MODELS...PARTICULARLY THEGFS...UKMET...AND GFDL...SHOW NORMAN SKIRTING THE COAST AND TURNINGWESTWARD BACK OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. IF THAT HAPPENS...THECHANCES FOR REGENERATION INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE ARE EXTREMELY LOW.

EVEN IF NORMAN DOES NOT ACTUALLY MAKE LANDFALL...MOST OF THEINCLEMENT WEATHER IS LOCATED EAST OF THE CENTER AND WILL STILLLIKELY PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS AND POSSIBLE FLOODING ACROSS SINALOA ANDWESTERN DURANGO THROUGH SATURDAY.

AFTER MOVING ASHORE ABOUT 10 N MI WEST OF TOPOLOBAMPO AROUND 0500UTC...THE CENTER OF NORMAN IS BACK OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA.HOWEVER...THE DEPRESSION IS BECOMING LESS ORGANIZED WITH ONLY ASMALL BAND OF MODERATE CONVECTION REMAINING. THE INITIAL WINDS AREREDUCED TO 25 KT IN ACCORDANCE WITH SATELLITE ESTIMATES. STRONGSHEAR SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN NORMAN...WITH THE DEPRESSION LIKELYTO BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY. MOST OF THE GLOBAL GUIDANCETURN THE SMALL CYCLONE WESTWARD AND DISSIPATE IT WITHIN 24 HOURS.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODING ARE STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS SINALOAAND WESTERN DURANGO THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

NORMAN HAS LACKED CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER SINCE 0400 UTC...AND IFCONVECTION DOES NOT RETURN SOON IT WILL LIKELY BECOME A REMNANT LOWLATER TODAY. THE ONLY AREA OF NOTABLE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS CONFINEDTO A DISORGANIZED BAND ABOUT 100 N MI TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THECENTER. THIS ACTIVITY...WHICH IS EVIDENT IN RADAR IMAGERY FROMGUASAVE MEXICO...APPEARS TO BE OROGRAPHICALLY ENHANCED. THE INITIALWIND SPEED IS HELD AT 25 KT. DEGENERATION TO A REMNANT LOW ISFORECAST TO OCCUR LATER TODAY AS THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO REMAININ A HOSTILE ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT. THE GLOBAL AND REGIONALMODELS ALL SHOW THE SYSTEM DISSIPATING TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY.

THE DEPRESSION HAS TURNED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD IN THE GULF OFCALIFORNIA. NORMAN...OR ITS REMNANT LOW...IS FORECAST TO TURNWESTWARD AND SLOW DOWN UNTIL IT DISSIPATES NEAR OR OVER THE BAJAPENNISULA. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS CLOSEST TO THE BAMSMODEL.

NORMAN HAS BEEN DEVOID OF SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION FOR THE PAST15 HOURS OR SO...AND IT IS NOW CLASSIFIED A POST-TROPICAL REMNANTLOW. THE CYCLONE HAS TURNED WESTWARD...AND A SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF DUEWEST MOTION IS EXPECTED UNTIL IT DISSIPATES OVER OR NEAR THE BAJAPENNISULA BY EARLY SUNDAY.

THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ONNORMAN. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW PLEASE SEEHIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDERAWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN01 KWBC.

RADAR IMAGES FROM GUASAVE MEXICO INDICATE THAT DISORGANIZED SHOWERSAND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE LINGERING NEAR LOS MOCHIS. THISACTIVITY COULD CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS.