New state poll: Murray runs weak, income tax strong

BY JOEL CONNELLY, SEATTLEPI.COM

Published 10:00 pm, Sunday, May 23, 2010

A new statewide Washington Poll, released Monday, shows a vulnerable Sen. Patty Murray, majority support for an income tax on the wealthy and surprising backing for removing criminal and civil penalties for possessing small amounts of marijuana.

Seeking her fourth term this fall, Democrat Murray enjoys strong support from only 33 percent of those surveyed. In a race against a "generic" Republican, she leads by a margin of only 42 percent to 39 percent.

Murray is in the lead by four points, 44 percent to 40 percent when she is pitted against two-time Republican gubernatorial nominee Dino Rossi. Rossi is on the verge of a decision to run.

Joel Connelly has been a staff columnist for more than 30 years. He comments regularly on politics and public policy.

The hybrid tax reform initiative -- an income tax for the wealthy, lower property taxes, B & O tax relief for small business -- gets a surprising 58 percent thumbs-up. The pollster read provisions of the initiative, which has since changed names from I-1077 to 1098.

Just 30 percent opposed to the measure. In the flip side, however, a 60 percent majority voiced support for a Tim Eyman-sponsored measure that would require a two-thirds vote of the Legislature to pass new taxes.

Eyman is launching his campaign for the initiative later Monday.

Another surprising result was high support for legalizing possession of small amounts of marijuana. Washington voters have already given thumbs-up to medical marijuana.

Fifty-two percent approve removing both civil and criminal penalties for possessing small amounts of cannabis. Sponsors are collecting signatures to put such a measure on the November ballot.

Liquor privatization, another cause seeking a place on Washington's November ballot, was endorsed by a 52-37 margin.

Polls are, of course, a snapshot in time. Minds change. Murray was perceived as vulnerable at this stage of her 1998 and 2004 re-election campaigns.

A Rasmussen survey last October had Initiative 1033, an Eyman-sponsored measure to put a straitjacket on growth of state, local and city government spending, leading 61 percent to 31 percent lead. It lost in November by a 60-40 margin.

The Washington Poll showed voters, by a narrow margin, in a pessimistic mood.

A total of 44 percent of voters think the state is headed in the "wrong direction," up from 38 percent last November: 41 percent feel it is headed in the "right direction," a decline of 3 percentage points. The remainder had no opinion.

By a narrow margin, 45 percent to 41 percent, the state's voters approve the sweeping health care reform plan passed by Congress and signed into law by President Obama.

The state is evenly split -- 40 percent supporting, 40 percent opposing -- on Attorney General Rob McKenna's decision to join with other Republican AG's in mounting a court challenge to health care reform.

Voters appear, by the narrowest of margins, willing to bite the bullet on new taxes to prevent draconian cuts in social services: 49 percent approved of the budget recently enacted by the Legislature, which raises taxes on such items as soft drinks, bottled water and cigarettes. Forty-five percent disapproved.

Asked how they'll vote for the Legislature this fall, 39 percent said for the Democrats, 38 percent for Republican candidates. When "GOP" was substituted for Republican, the Dems' margin increased to 43-37.

The results on Sen. Murray produced an eerie similarity with a spring survey on prospects of another powerful Senate Appropriations Committee member taken 30 years ago.

The 1980 poll, by Democratic opinion expert Peter Hart, showed a quite similar support level for Sen. Warren Magnuson, then seeking his seventh term to continue as chairman of the Senate Appropriations Committee.

Maggie went on to lose in November to Republican Slade Gorton. He, somewhat like Murray today, appeared at carefully staged events and concentrated his re-election bid on the ability to bring home federal dollars.