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Poll shows most respondents feel Coalition Avenir Québec Leader François Legault won in the televised debates, but less than half believe the CAQ would oppose future bid for Quebec separation.

By Allan WoodsOttawa Bureau

Fri., Aug. 24, 2012

MONTREAL—Quebecers have serious doubts about a promise by Coalition Avenir Québec to fight the menace of a third referendum, according to a new poll for the Toronto Star.

Party leader François Legault is hoping that a political realignment in the province that puts the question of Quebec sovereignty in the past will allow him to steal federalist votes from the incumbent Liberal party and surge past the separatist Parti Québécois in the Sept. 4 election.

Legault classifies himself as a “nationalist” — neither sovereigntist or federalist — but his long history as a top PQ minister appear to be leaving doubts in voters’ minds.

Of the 805 Quebecers surveyed on Thursday and Friday by the Angus Reid polling firm, only 45 per cent said they believed Legault’s party would oppose sovereignty.

One in four people said they believed the CAQ is likely to support sovereignty.

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Jean Charest’s Liberal party continues to be the flag holder for federalists, with a nearly unanimous 91 per cent saying they believed the provincial Liberals would oppose sovereignty.

“Legault’s efforts to reassure the Quebec public on the issue of sovereignty do not seem to have been overly successful,” said Angus Reid’s Demetre Eliopoulos. “His message has either not been communicated well, or the credibility of the message is at issue.”

Charest has not hesitated to use his federalist credentials and his party’s traditional support among Quebec’s anglophones to his advantage, warning repeatedly that a vote for Legault’s party is akin to supporting the PQ and its agenda to hold a referendum.

The last week on the campaign has been largely taken over by four consecutive debates. A possible third referendum once again dominated discussion, particularly after Legault and PQ Leader Pauline Marois squared off Wednesday evening.

Legault accused his former sovereigntist colleague of creating a loophole in her election platform that would force the government to hold a referendum on any matter that has the support and signatures of 15 percent of the population (about 850,000 people).

That would allow a minority of hard-line separatists to force a PQ regime to act, even if it wasn’t assured of victory, Legault said, equating it to caribou leading a herd off a cliff.

Legault has said he would vote “no” in a third referendum and has promised to keep the issue on the backburner for a decade if he forms the government.

In the meantime, he has said, “I will defend neither sovereignty nor Canadian unity.”

Despite reservations about his stance on sovereignty, respondents believed that Legault had the best performance in two head-to-head debates against Charest and Marois.

Both the Liberals and the PQ are feeling the pressure from the CAQ, a party that rose from the ashes of the former Action Démocratique du Québec last November.

The survey found that the CAQ has so far attracted one quarter of those who voted Liberal in the 2008 provincial election and 15 per cent of former PQ voters.

“The ability to retain their base of support is at a critical phase in the campaign for both the Liberal party and the Parti Québécois,” said Eliopoulos. Right now, the Liberals are holding on to 62 per cent of voters who supported them in 2008, compared to a retention rate of 71 per cent for the Parti Québécois.”

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