Florida delivers reality check to Perry

Updated 11:02 pm, Saturday, September 24, 2011

Photo: Carlos Osorio

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Carlos Osorio : Associated press
ON THE MOVE: Gov. Rick Perry arrives Saturday at the Republican Leadership Conference at the Grand Hotel on Mackinac Island, Mich. A Florida poll showed Perry may have to retool his message about issues such as immigration and Social Security. less

Carlos Osorio : Associated press
ON THE MOVE: Gov. Rick Perry arrives Saturday at the Republican Leadership Conference at the Grand Hotel on Mackinac Island, Mich. A Florida poll showed Perry may have to retool ... more

Photo: Carlos Osorio

Florida delivers reality check to Perry

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ORLANDO, Fla. - Texas Gov. Rick Perry was dealt a stinging disappointment Saturday when restaurant magnate Herman Cain leapfrogged him in a straw poll among some 2,600 Florida Republican activists, with Cain winning a stunning 37.1 percent of the vote to Perry's 15.4 percent. Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney came in third, with 14 percent of the vote, in an outcome that delegates said was intended to send a message to the squabbling Perry and Romney campaigns.

Perry spokesman Mark Miner congratulated Cain, but argued that the results spoke most loudly about Romney's candidacy. "Our hat's off to Herman Cain," he said. "It's more of a devastating loss to Mitt Romney, who's been running for president for five-and-a-half years. Gov. Perry has been running for five-and-a-half weeks."

Romney did not actively campaign in the poll, and a campaign spokesman downplayed its importance. By contrast, Perry addressed nearly 2,000 of the delegates at a Saturday breakfast he hosted in their honor, reprising his stump speech to include an oblique apology for his poor debate performance Thursday night.

"You've seen what happens when our country chooses a leader who emphasizes words over deeds," he said in a speech harshly criticizing President Barack Obama. "We get a president like we have today. Americans don't need more slick promises. We need a principled leader who will stand on his conservative values."

Some delegates said the poll results should serve as a wake-up call to Perry and Romney, who have been first and second in national polls, respectively.

"They are tired of the sparring between Perry and Romney," Pat Chandler, a delegate from New Port Richey, said of her fellow delegates.

Delegate Maureen Tubello said she "had every intention" of voting for Perry, but was "not pleased" with his comments on immigration. In particular, she took issue with Perry's remark that those who didn't support in-state tuition for illegal immigrants "have no heart."

Saturday's results suggest that the Perry campaign team may have to retool its message. Many political experts say 2012 may be a tipping point where insurgent blocs including tea party supporters, religious right loyalists and young voters suffering in the ailing economy upset the establishment favorite for the first time since 1980.

Perry had hoped to tap into these emerging forces by offering a unique brand of hard-charging conservatism and willingness to take provocative positions on some of the most untouchable topics of late 20th century politics, from Social Security to states' rights to environmental protection.

And in the early primary states, his message had been resonating with some GOP voters.

Andrew Hemingway, a 29-year-old social media consultant from Bristol, N.H., represents the kind of voter who is changing the face - and the ideology - of the Republican Party.

Hemingway applauds Perry's blunt characterization of Social Security as a "monstrous lie."

'Limbaugh primaries'

Hemingway says he understands why older voters might be nervous about Perry's stance. He admits Perry's record isn't perfect. (He disagrees with Perry's ill-fated plan to vaccinate young girls to protect them against cervical cancer.)

But the young Republican desperately wants to defeat Obama in 2012 and he believes the Texas governor is a bold, proven leader for a nation desperately in search of strong leadership and economic revival.

But some political analysts question whether Perry's message will resonate across the country.

"His kind of bombast works well in the Texas Leagues - it helped him beat Kay Bailey Hutchison in the gubernatorial primary - but it doesn't travel well beyond the Iowa caucuses and what I call the 'Limbaugh primaries,' " says Mike Collins, a GOP consultant and former spokesman for the Republican National Committee.

Perry's poor performance in the Orlando Republican debate demonstrates that brashness can backfire, interviews with several attendees suggest.

A typical view was expressed by James Densmore, an Orlando commercial real estate investor, who said until Thursday night, Perry was No. 1 on his list. "He's good on the economy, he has a terrific record in Texas and his health care opinions are right on," Densmore said. But Densmore had hoped Perry would use the Orlando forum to soften his policy that illegal immigrants should receive in-state college tuition. Instead, Perry defended the law he signed as Texas governor and suggested those who oppose it "don't have a heart."

"Well, I have a heart," Densmore said. "He's digging his heels in. It was sort of a game-changer for me."

GOP voter preferences

Republican voters strongly desire a Washington outsider with private-sector experience. According to the latest CBS News/New York Times poll, 48 percent of Republicans say they prefer a candidate whose experience comes mostly from the business world, and 14 percent want someone who has spent more time in politics and government. That would seem to benefit candidates like Romney, former pizza executive Cain and former Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman.

But 81 percent of white evangelicals - and 52 percent of all Republicans - say it's important that their nominee share their religious beliefs. That would seem to benefit Perry, an evangelical Christian.

The ideological divisions within the GOP also benefit Perry. Just 22 percent of Republicans and 11 percent of tea party Republicans believe that humans are responsible for global warming. Among other voters, a majority thinks that climate change is caused by people.

On Social Security, most Republicans - and 46 percent of all Americans - agree with Perry that the retirement program "is a Ponzi scheme," according to a Bloomberg News poll.

Perry is with the Republican majority. Romney, who criticized Perry's rhetoric, is on the side of general election voters.

Polls indicate that Republicans have a golden opportunity to court independent voters who give Obama low marks for leadership and handling the economy. But some of the very conservative positions of the party's conservative core - like Social Security privatization and rejection of scientific findings on evolution - could become seriously liabilities.

"Barack Obama's best chance of re-election - and perhaps his only chance - is a Republican nominee who scares swing voters," says Cindy Rugeley, a political scientist at Texas Tech University.