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Wednesday, 2 October 2013

The Korean Grand Prix Form Guide: Part 5 - Miscellaneous Bets

Formula 1 Betting By Numbers

Today
I'm going to round-off my analysis of the formula 1 form guide by
covering a few miscellaneous betting markets such as fastest
lap, fastest qualifier, etc.

The following form guide charts are based on the last six races with the statistics weighted in favour of recent results by applying the following multipliers for
each Grand Prix: Britain 16.7%, Germany 33.3%, Hungary 50%, Belgium 66.7%, Italy 83.3% and Singapore 100%.

Fastest Lap:

First up, here's the form guide for the fastest lap:

Fastest Lap

Profit*

Winning Bet

Sebastian Vettel

1.83

2

Lewis Hamilton

1.50

1

Mark Webber

1.33

2

Fernando Alonso

-0.17

1

Rest Of The Field

-3.50

0

* Please note, even in the few days before first practise, the odds can sometimes vary slightly, so I've generally tried to take the odds a few days before each Grand Prix as soon as the market opened.

There's perhaps a bigger element of luck to fastest lap betting than with most other formula 1 markets, but the Red Bull pairing of Vettel and Webber have 4 fastest laps between them from the last 6 Grand Prix and 8 fastest laps all season.

Fastest Qualifier:

Next up is the form guide for 'Pole Position', which some bookies refer to as 'Fastest Q3 Qualifying Time':

Fastest Qualifier

Profit

Winning Bet

Sebastian Vettel

1.62

2

Lewis Hamilton

1.42

4

Rest Of The Field

-3.50

0

You have to go back as far as Monaco to find the last time a driver other than Lewis
Hamilton and Sebastian Vettel was on pole position. Hamilton and Vettel have had five pole positions each this season, but based on Monza and Singapore the pendulum seems to have recently swung in Vettel's favour.

Winning Margin:

Most
bookies also offer a market on the Winning Margin of each Grand Prix
and at SkyBet they go with 6 seconds as the dividing line:

Winning Margin

Profit

Winning Bet

6 Seconds Or More

0.20

3

Under 6 Seconds

-0.67

3

Sebastian Vettel produced the most dominant winning performance of the season at Singapore, with a massive margin of 32.6 seconds to Fernando Alonso in second place. Over the course of the season though, the
races have been somewhat closer with the average winning margin for 2013 standing at 10.05
seconds, and the average winning margin over the last six races standing at 11.23 seconds.

Safety Car:

The current statistics for Safety Car betting are as follows:

Safety Car

Profit

Winning Bet

No

0.23

3

Yes

-1.01

3

Each of the six Grand Prix to be staged at Singapore has featured a safety car, but in the context of the current season that was only the fourth Grand Prix this year when the safety car was called into action.

Winning Team:

Finally, here's the current form guide for Winning Team:

Winning Team

Profit

Winning Bet

Red Bull

2.83

4

Mercedes

2.28

2

Rest Of The Field

-3.50

0

As
you'd expect given Sebastian Vettel's current strong form, Red Bull top the Winning Team form chart, with Mercedes the only other team to have claimed a victory in the last six Grand Prix.