The latest “field checks” from Asia regarding motherboard shipments suggest unit shipment growth for this quarter will be flat for notebook computers and down 10% for desktops, she writes, but probably more like down 5 to 10% for both in Q1.

“Tablets are continuing their cannibalization of the traditional (non-touch/non-Ultrabook) market,” writes Feeney.

“Black Friday did not help PC sales, but contacts saw expected strength in tablet shipments.”

In fact, Black Friday wa driven by sales of sub-$600 laptops and “door buster” sub-$400 machines, she writes, which was “in line with muted expectations.”

Feeney thinks there is downside risk to estimates for PC-realated chip names such as Intel (INTC), Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), and Intersil (ISIL), all of which she rates Neutral, though she thinks there are already “sufficiently conservative outlooks in place” for Nvidia (NVDA) and Volterra Semiconductor (VLTR), which she also rates Neutral.

All the names are up today:

Intel is up 35 cents, or 1.7%, at $20.20
AMD is up 6 cents, or 2%, at $2.35
Intersil is up 14 cents, or 2%, at $7.59
Nvidia is up 2 cents at $11.98
and Volterra is up 13 cents, or 0.8%, at $17.01.

About Tech Trader Daily

Tech Trader Daily is a blog on technology investing written by Barron’s veteran Tiernan Ray. The blog provides news, analysis and original reporting on events important to investors in software, hardware, the Internet, telecommunications and related fields. Comments and tips can be sent to: techtraderdaily@barrons.com.