John McLean, Chris de Freitas, and Robert Carter (2009) – Influence of the Southern Oscillation on tropospheric temperature – Journal of Geophysical Research 114, D14104 – doi: 10.1029/2008JD011637 – 23/07/2009 – http://www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/2009/2008JD011637.shtml“The results showed that [Southern Oscillation Index] accounted for 81% of the variance in tropospheric temperature anomalies in the tropics. Overall the results suggest that the Southern Oscillation exercises a consistently dominant influence on mean global temperature, with a maximum effect in the tropics, except for periods when equatorial volcanism causes ad hoc cooling. That mean global tropospheric temperature has for the last 50 years fallen and risen in close accord with the SOI of 5–7 months earlier shows the potential of natural forcing mechanisms to account for most of the temperature variation.”

Bob Carter – If She Weighs the Same as a Duck, She’s Made of Wood – Only In It For The Gold 23/07/2009 – http://initforthegold.blogspot.com/2009/07/surprising-conclusions-from.html“Both my point (focusing on the tortured logic) and Tamino’s (focusing on an obvious and demonstrable weakness of the tortured logic) are made very effectively in a brief comment on the RealClimate article by Ron Taylor which I quote here in its entirety. For most purposes this is all you really need to know about the new paper, Influence of the Southern Oscillation on tropospheric temperature, (McLean, de Freitas and Carter).”

Robert Fawcett (2007) – Has the world cooled since 1998? – Bulletin of the Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society 20:141 – National Climate Centre, Bureau of Meteorology, Australia – http://www.amos.org.au/documents/item/82“A typical response to the cooling assertion is that the global warming conditions that occurred in 1998 were due in part to the very strong El Niño event of 1997/98, and subsequent years have been as warm or nearly as warm from much less emphatic El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions … Removing the ENSO-related inter-annual variability by means of linear regression against the SOI provides more evidence against the cooling assertion. Of the three global time series explored, the HadCRUT3 time series is the most ambivalent when ENSO-adjusted, and even that one has 2006 as the warmest (adjusted) year. In the GISS data set, ENSO-adjustment results in a stark warming over the past 40 years. Nationally, 2005 remains Australia’s warmest year whether or not the ENSO signal is removed.”

Martin Hoerling et al (2008) – What is causing the variability in global mean land temperature? – Geophysical Research Letters 35, L23712, doi:10.1029/2008GL035984 – 13/12/2008 – http://www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/2008/2008GL035984.shtml“Our results indicate that natural variations internal to the Earth’s climate system have had a relatively small impact on the low frequency variations in global mean land temperature. It is therefore extremely unlikely that the recent trajectory of terrestrial warming can be overwhelmed (and become colder than normal) as a consequence of natural variability.”

John Cook – Did global warming stop in 1998? – Skeptical Science 21/12/2007 – http://www.skepticalscience.com/global-warming-stopped-in-1998.htm“The planet has continued to accumulate heat since 1998 – global warming is still happening. Nevertheless, surface temperatures show much internal variability due to heat exchange between the ocean and atmosphere. 1998 was an unusually hot year due to a strong El Niño.”

David W. J. Thompson, John J. Kennedy, John M. Wallace & Phil D. Jones (2008) – A large discontinuity in the mid-twentieth century in observed global-mean surface temperature – Nature 453:646-649 – 29/05/2008 – http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v453/n7195/abs/nature06982.html“We argue that the abrupt temperature drop of 0.3 ºC in 1945 is the apparent result of uncorrected instrumental biases in the sea surface temperature record.Corrections for the discontinuity are expected to alter the character of mid-twentieth century temperature variability but not estimates of the century long trend in global-mean temperatures.”