Sunday, July 26, 2009

As Giants cool, trade talk heats up

Starting pitcher:
M.C. O'Connor

Henry Schulman's Beaten Giants talking trade says a deal is "50-50". The Indians have supposedly scouted us and we have supposedly scouted Victor Martinez and Ryan Garko. Freddy Sanchez and Nick Johnson warrant a mention as "oft-mentioned," and we are not to discount Marco Scutaro or Aubrey Huff. Jesus Guzman gets his name in print alongside "hot" and "could get another look." That sounds like plan I can get behind.

At least we have some names. The question, of course, is "what are those names worth?" Who are you willing to give up to get one of those guys in our lineup? I'm intrigued by Martinez, but in terms of WAR, he's in Matt Cain country, and we aren't going to do that. He's a middle-of-the-order bat, and a catcher. What would you ask in return? Cleveland is 12 games back--they are sellers at this point. Martinez is a free agent this year with club option for 2010. Nick Johnson might be the best bet, and the most affordable at 1.5 WAR. He might be had for Jonathan Sanchez and change. He's a free agent at the end of this season, though. Ryan Garko may be the most realistic--he's younger and cheaper and would be under control longer. Sanchez, Huff and Scutaro don't pique my interest, but I could listen to a good counter-argument.

So--do we go after one or more of these guys?

UPDATE: I spent some time with wOBA (explained here and here). Victor Martinez and Ryan Garko come in a .361, better than everyone on the Giants except Pablo Sandoval (.390). Nick Johnson is .366. The next best Giant is Aaron Rowand at .340. Take a look at the leaderboards for perspective. There are 15 guys below .300 wOBA (bad, very bad)--two of them are Giants (Molina and Renteria). You could make a case that Edgar Renteria is the worst full-time player in baseball.

14 comments:

Victor Martinez - good player, but is he worth giving up fine pitching for?

Ryan Garko - exactly what does he bring to the table?

Freddy Sanchez - not conviced that he really represents a large upgrade.

Nick Johnson - solid hitter & OBP guy, but often hurt.

Marco Scutaro - please; no way.

Aubrey Huff - very streaky hitter who's amazing when he's hot & sucky when he's not. Sometimes his streaks last for most of a season. What if we gave up quality pitching & hit one of his cold streaks? I smell Shea Hillebrand.

Final word: none of the above are worth giving up talent for, although, if I had to choose, I'd go with Martinez or Johnson.

I think it is clear that I favor a trade. As we discussed last week this is the most unbalanced team we have ever had...yet we are contenders. That means we have pitching to deal, in fact I think if we don't redistribute our talent/salary soon we will have serious problems (like no way to resign Tim or Matt). These bats are good choices. I also like Willington and my Bro is eye balling Ian Kinsler. Martinez makes little sense unless he switches to 1B, but he is the best bat. Ive always liked Johnson and remember lost free agents do generate draft choices, which is what we do best recently. If we give up Sanchez and another non big 4 choice for ANY of these, we are better! An average 1B or 2B for an extra 5th starter? Come on thats a no brainer. Of course if the trade is to get the WC this year, you probably keep Sanchez and move a better pitching prospect. And, yes, I would consider using Alderson...that is how much we need wood.Garko scares me. Alien or android? A new version of Sabo? /shudderGood post, I know you don't care for trade talk that much, so thanks. I officially take back calling you a scaredy cat.

Martinez already has converted to 1B. Otherwise, there would be no point. Willingham is pretty good, but I'm not sure that he improves us that much. I doubt that Texas, a team in contention, has any interest in trading one of their cornerstone players (Kinsler).

What's the deal on Bowker playing all of the time, even though he appears to have no clue? Fred Lewis, too. Was there a problem with the Winn/Rowand/Schierholtz OF combination? Not exactly fearsome, but better than playing Bowker & Lewis a lot.

Don't know why the link is truncated, but the dude is Russell Branyan. Why Russell Branyan? Well, for starters, he has high HR's, RBI's, BB's, OBP, SLG, VSC, & he plays 3 positions (1B, 3B, & OF). Downside is all of the whiffs.

I would give up 2 of the following plus a mid-level pitching prospect: Bowker or Lewis & Burriss or Frandsen - we're talking Russell Branyan here, not some superstar.

Branyan has never been played a full season. Fortunately, he's doing that this year and has his highest ever wOBA and OPS+. He's a lefty, though. Our park kills lefties not named Barry Bonds. He's running a 2.5 WAR right now, 3rd best in the Mariners lineup (behind Suzuki and Guitierrez). Strictly in terms of WAR, he's worth 5x Fred Lewis (0.5 WAR). He's 33, and he's a free agent, and cheap ($1.4 M). If they want to take below-average guys off our hands to dump Branyan, OK. Why would they do that? What's in it for them?

Many wanted Branyan before the start of this year...that would have been sweet!

Obviously I need to research Martinez more, but what I remember was very impressive. He would take a big prospect, but (depending on his contract situation) he would be worth it.

I have never seen anything in Bowker; guess I'm immune to Bowkermania. He isn't enough of a physical presence to be 2B let alone a corner OF. Big holes in swing. Definite trade bait, but little value.

There is only one place where Burriss might be valued (face it, he can't get on): Washington. As I mentioned, they are the perfect trade partner with us. I read many Nat blogs that mentioned Emmanuel. It would be a great PR thing for them. Crawford has made it alot harder for Manny to find a spot in the future.

Branyan is a prodigious HR-type hitter (i.e. severly lofted fly balls that go forever). No, he's no Barry Bonds, but he is the type of lefty who could get balls out of PhoneCo with regularity - he doesn't hit too many lowish line drives that would just hit the tall wall for singles. Not saying that we should defintely get him - just that, as a lefty, he could have success there. Nick Johnson, on the other hand, would hit line drives off of the wall. Not that that's a bad thing, though.

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