Predicting temperature trend in the Northern Hemisphere to the year 2000

M. K. Miles*

*Formerly of The Meteorological Office, London Road, Bracknell, Berks, UK

The cooling of the Northern Hemisphere since 1940 has been variously interpreted as the overture to the next Ice Age, the effect of industrial pollution in the atmosphere or of a decline in the solar output. Are we in a position to judge between these various interpretations and to make a prediction for the next few decades? The link with the next Ice Age may be dismissed as a confusion of timescales; the explanation in terms of atmospheric pollution merits careful examination but seems unlikely to be adequate on its own. Natural fluctuations must also be considered.