Is Kim Jong Un nuts?

SEOUL, March 30 (Reuters) - North Korea said on Saturday it was entering a "state of war" with South Korea in a continuing escalation of tough rhetoric against Seoul and Washington after coming under international sanctions for its nuclear test.

"From this time on, the North-South relations will be entering the state of war and all issues raised between the North and the South will be handled accordingly," a statement carried by the North's official KCNA news agency said. (source)

Experts on CNN were saying that what's happening is really spurred by the North Korean military not the young Kim Jong Un. They also say it's mostly for internal consumption, trying to make the new leader look strong and forceful to a society that still reveres age. Internally, he has been demoting and firing top military officers. It may be that, through him, the most hard of the hard liners in the military are consolidating their power.

The military experts on CNN said that they doubted North Korea would follow up on any of its threats against the U.S. or South Korea. In fact, they'd be crazy. Why? Because they'd lose, despite having the fourth largest army in the world. And they could hardly expect much help from China. North Korea is pretty much a drag on the Chinese economy, with North Korea needing to suck at their teat due to the fact that its economy is a total shambles.

And why would China want to see the U.S. defeated, what with the steady flow of cash from here to there due to all the American debt China owns. The U.S. is their golden goose right now.

China is so pissed off and North Korea that for the first time ever they have joined in with international sanctions against North Korea.

All that said, North Korea is making strides in terms of ballistic missile development, so they will be more of a worry in the future.

Replies to This Discussion

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This is a fascinating topic (to me) because I think of NK as not just a country with rabid nationalism, but as a cult. They're dangerous because they're suffering, insecure, nuts, and suicide-ready, worshiping the divinity of their leader. I'm continually surprised by the media's optimism whenever a new agreement is struck with NK, because NK always renigs. It's so predictable that I think we--especially as atheists--should be able to learn something from them about cult behavior in general, and errant, marginalized human behavior.

Why would he be nuts? While his calculations certainly are gut-wrenchingly cold, they are by no means insane. Leaders in the modern era can hardly be crazy, Chavez notwithstanding, and that he's been able to keep power for more than a year speaks to him being quite shrewd.

Kim actually has a fairly strong hand to play as he knows China will do pretty much anything to back him up. It is unfathomable for China to get South Korean soldiers on their borders, not to speak of American ones. Thus they will fiercely resist any type of invasion and forced regime change. However, in a couple of decades China will probably not want an unpredictable NK on its borders, and will push for reunification as long as it has SK within its sphere of influence at the time. China may be annoyed at its neighbor, even going so far as to support UN sanctions, but they will not actually do anything or apply the sanctions.

Kim can also play the nuclear card, and as long as he keeps building capability there are always potential customers willing to pay large sums for weapons. NK already built a reactor in Syria, and is probably exporting to Iran and keeping open the possibility of selling to deep pocketed non-state actors

There will probably be an attack on SK, though I think he will want to avoid casualties as not to provoke a counter attack, some time during or right after the training operations. Then there will be some negotiations whereupon NK will receive food aid and perhaps fuel, and next year or the year after that it will be rinse and repeat.

While partly the case, there is obviously none which has risen to the level of being able to compete with him. While it's impossible to know the palace intrigue from outside, even pyongyangoligists seem to believe he is quite deft at machiavellian games.