“There’s a sucker born every minute.” That’s a quote attributed to P.T. Barnum, who never underestimated the American credulity.

I am not sanguine about our chances of winning the presidential election this year. We have two groups of people to thank for that. The Republican establishment is one. They account for part of the problem. By coming into this election season thinking they had the nomination locked up in the person of Jeb, they got blind-sided by a large group of very capable people announcing their own bids. They were not prepared for that. You would think they would have learned with Dole, McCain and Romney. After those ugly lessons they still anticipated a business-as-usual candidate would skate in and keep life inside the beltway pretty much as it’s been since FDR. A joke.

That would be okay if it were the only problem. We don’t need the blessing of Karl Rove to win this year.

But the people who are really driving our chances of victory to near zero are the ones who have us repeating mistakes of the very near past. Let’s review.

In 2008, after everyone assumed that Hillary was to receive an unopposed coronation, up pops a one term Senator who had no real-life experience of any kind. He was vapid and emotionalist. But he was young and new and snarky (that, for liberals, passes for intelligence and competence). McCain got the nomination for the Republicans. In a fit of utter childishness, republicans who disliked McCain stayed home, while the rest of the country blindly jumped on the bandwagon for Obama, who hadn’t done a single thing to earn their trust or their vote. A large part of our population chose to be credulous idiots in order to install our first black president, as if that really means anything.

In 2012, the same scenario repeated itself. Millions of Republican crybabies stayed home because they didn’t like that Romney (who is now repeatedly proven right in everything they laughed at him for then) got the nomination. So, once again, these stupid people stayed home and pouted on election day. The result: The emotionalist lemmings re-elected the worst president in American history. If you are Republican and stayed home in 2012, that result was your fault and you have no excuse. Whether you were being petulant or lazy, YOU put Obama back in office.

Do you remember how we Republicans used to laugh at the Kool-Aid drinkers? Every time Obama opened his mouth, he said something wildly inaccurate and often deceitful. It was so obvious, and yet he got elected. Fast-forward four more years. Well…today, we have an embarrassingly inarticulate real estate huckster, who thinks carrying out foreign policy is the same as buying a shopping center, at the top of the Republican field. From mid-summer on, he has yet to explain his least point to voters. He has no argument. A ten-year-old could have written most of his political point papers, posted online. He blurts out stuff anyone could read on FB every minute of every day, and without the slightest provision of evidence and the new Kool-Aid Drinkers cheer wildly. And these rubes are every bit as fanatical as were their Obama-loving predecessors. If you disagree with Trump, these wide-eyed supporters will jump on Facebook and Twitter to denounce you as the anti-Christ.

In 16 20 24, I started out by saying that people are ready to hear a brash and controversial message delivered by an honest politician. By being himself, Trump has garnered tremendous support. But that only covered the first two chapters of the book. The idea behind writing the book was to build better statesmen by building smarter, more discerning voters. More importantly, the message to politicians was that they should have a coherent, real message. I dread, once again, people are whoring their vote for empty celebrity.

Every time the Donald has a fit of Tourette Syndrome, a very large group of rubes calls it being honest. These same rubes call themselves conservative. They completely missed Trump calling Eminent Domain for the purposes of building private enterprises a “wonderful thing”. (See the 3:33 mark of this link. Talk about big government picking winners and losers!!!)They think it is okay to build a giant federal police force (!) for the purposes of deporting illegals is a good idea. [1. I will dedicate an entire post to the utter stupidity of this idea. Not because I like illegals squatting in the U.S. but because there is a much easier and constitutional way to do it.] These people tripped over themselves to excuse his imitation of Serge Kovaleski, a reporter he knows very well, who has an affliction that causes his hands to be twisted and difficult to control.

Trump, once famous for his childish Twitter fight with Rosie O’Donnell, later said he didn’t know the reporter and wasn’t making jokes about his condition. Well, it turns out he has met the man several times over the years and even sat for a one-on-one with him. You don’t forget that kind of thing. I will go way out on a limb here and say that no one, including the people saying he wasn’t ridiculing the reporter, actually thinks he wasn’t ridiculing the reporter.

You can get away with that middle-school shit if you are Dennis Leary performing the song, I’m an Asshole. But it doesn’t mark you as a leader the rest of the world will respect. We all saw the same weakness in Obama. But he still sits in the Oval office, ignoring his intelligence people.

Here’s the bottom line. Trump is an absolute populist. When he speaks, he is not being honest, as we have seen many times. He is blurting out populist statements with little or no evidence to support them. No matter, his giddy children are eager to buy all of it and curse the world for not seeing his brilliance.

But this is only the tip of the iceberg where Trump is concerned. Let’s say he wins the nomination.[2. In the interest of full disclosure, I will vote for Trump over anything the statists produce] That is where the happy carnival ride will stop. The first thing that would happen is the media, who have been carrying him for his circus-like appeal, will turn on him like feral dogs. They will fill the airwaves with “news stories” that they have been sitting on since July. As sad as that will be, the debates will be worse. Gone will be any pledge from reporters to be even-handed with the candidates. When asked about anything significant, Trump will talk about the great companies he built. He’ll wave his arms. He’ll talk about who is, and is not, nice to him. It will take all the strategy of a game of tic-tac-toe to back him into a corner. His opponent, Bj Bill’s wife or Sanders, will then proceed to tear him to shreds. He will be left looking stupid and pathetic. That is not a sight I’d like to see.

When this happens, all the undecided and center-left voters will immediately shift left. Result: President Hillary or President Sanders.[3. The only way Bernie gets the nod is if Hillary is indicted as she should be. Maybe not even then considering the lack of dignity the left exercises these days.]

At the moment, the Donald sits atop the Republican field, nine times out of ten firing down, instead of across at Democrats. He is doing his level best to leave the entire field bruised and penniless for the general election, while providing hours of footage for Hillary to use against Republicans. It doesn’t matter that his claims are usually untrue or wildly misrepresented; there is tape of a “Republican” making the claims.

If he looses the nomination, Trump WILL run a third party ticket.[4. I don’t believe he ever intended to honor that stupid loyalty pledge to begin with.] His loyal lemmings will throw in with him. Result: Again Sanders or Clinton.

Understand, lacking a paper ballot in almost all polling places, a Democrat win may likely be the pre-programmed result anyway. But a Trump third party run will be the same thing.

Last scenario: Trump looses the nomination and doesn’t run third party. I will be the first to salute the unselfishness and chivalry of the decision. But I suspect that millions of Trump-ettes will pout their way through the general election and not vote. Result? You got it. Not the Republican.

Since the dawn of modern media, there has never been a more been a more self-absorbed, socially incompetent boob in such a commanding political position in the U.S. Only Trump can change this assessment. He can, for once, show up at a speech or debate prepared to communicate a clear and level-headed message. I don’t see that happening.

So, to Trump’s supporters I can only say that it is great that you are politically involved. I like the fact that the Trump effect has awakened so many people. But if you don’t grow up and support one of the adults in the race (Christie, Rubio, Fiorina – my opinion) you will see your guy and the hopes of conservatives go down in flames. It will be sad and it will be ugly.

On which planet is it where we “can’t” or “must” say Merry Christmas? Some people don’t. But that’s certainly none of our business…unless you are a Hillary fan or a PC campus nut job. They are the type who think they should decide for others what they must and must not say. I doubt anyone I know would demand others say, “Merry Christmas” or anything else to them. At the same time, I am sure all the same people feel perfectly at liberty to say it themselves. The exception, of course would be a store employees with a private fiduciary arrangement with their employer. The operative word here is “private”. I know that none of the people I respect would try to make a store employee feel bad for following a policy that is ONLY the business of the store and the employee. Only shrews and liberal snowflakes would feign outrage and go out of their way to make peoplewho work in stores feel bad in order to make themselves feel righteous.

I have a secret for the constant whiners: Xmas isn’t the only holiday celebrated this time of year. And even if it was, there are countless ways to wish someone well. They can “enjoy the season”, “have a nice holiday”, “have a joyous Noel”, and of course the dreaded, “Happy Holidays”. I’ve worked retail over two Yuletides. Do you have any idea how old it gets saying Merry Christmas over and over again, for weeks?

So grow up, y’all. Be happy that another human even acknowledged you, much less included you in their best wishes. From my family to yours… Enjoy the Solstice! But don’t spoil the kids with too many dreidels!

Don’t you love how the Orwellian statists pervert the argument? After showing breathtaking cowardice FOR YEARS in the face of violence by superstitious nut bags, they then accuse those who reject their plans, out of common sense, of acting out of fear. Please, everyone on the left and center left, reject these embarrassing, extreme idiots and become the new Reagan Democrats. Just do it for one election so we can finally decontaminate the fetid sewer that DC has become. Anyone who stands with Clinton and Obama now has no dignity.

I exclude from this argument anyone who supports Bernie Sanders. I disagree with his arguments entirely, but I believe he is a man of principle. His candidacy can be countered with reason while still being treated with respect.

Rosemary Mele is a devoted mother of teenagers and a productive member of her community. She’s a lady with a good heart and a quirky sense of humor. Until recently, few knew she is also a writer of a children’s book.

When her children were young, she used story-telling to help them understand the world around them. She decided to tell one of those stories in a book, and Wiggle E. Tooth was born.

One of my most vivid childhood memories is the fear my siblings and I had of that moment when our mother said, “Okay, it is time for that tooth to come out.” I only wish I had Wiggly in my corner then.

This is a colorful and imaginative tale that makes loosing that first baby tooth fun, even adventurous. With lively and colorful illustrations by Mike Mann, this book is already making that first rite of passage, for tots and their young parents across the country, a positive one.

I’d like to welcome my newest fan from Vilnius, Lithuania. I hope your English strong enough to understand nuance. Otherwise my book will hurt your feelings. And no one wants that…except, perhaps Hillary Clinton. She HATES Lithuanians. She’s pretty mean to Belgians as well. And don’t get her started on the Dutch. She’ll go on for hours. What can I say? She’s mean.

I have been watching Geraldo Rivera for decades. While he has ALWAYS been about inserting himself into the story, he has gotten some pretty good “gets” over the years. He’s also occasionally bombed. Still, he is usually interesting regardless of what position you may take on a given subject.

But this weekend, he went completely overboard in terms of professionalism and common sense.

On Friday evening, while preparing for The Five, a panel discussion show on FOX, Rivera started to catch reports of violence in Paris. As the reports of violence escalated, he became worried about where his daughter was and concerned for her safety. As it turns out, she was at the soccer game, France vs Germany.

At some point that evening, Rivera made two decisions. One was to go to Paris and be with his daughter, who he found out in short order was out of danger and in good health. What dad wouldn’t want to do that? His second decision was mind-bogglingly stupid and utterly unprofessional. He decided to feature himself, in a self-aggrandizing way, in one of the most significant events since 9/11. He wanted to put himself in the center ring. So desperate is he to prove he’s still the young, brash reporter of the late 70’s, that he rigged a news moment to feature himself favorably.

Rivera! You epic idiot! You clumsy jackass! Why didn’t you just paint a target on your daughter’s back? In an effort to rig a personal touchdown, you elevated your daughter from relative obscurity to being the daughter of legendary you! In a part of the world where cops avoid Muslim neighborhoods and religious nut bags have far too much running room, you have given the same nut bags images to consider when deciding how to make their next headline.

As a father and grandfather, I naturally hope nothing happens to her. She seems so sweet. I hope you make the smart move and decide to bring her home. But as someone who has an understanding of basic security and the history of terrorism, I condemn your circus stunt and can only sneer at those who participated in it.

BIG Update! I didn’t see this before. It was this paragraph that caught my attention:

The brave men and women in our Armed Forces should not be left defenseless against terrorists on American soil. Local commanders now have the authority to allow service men and women to be armed while on base. Members of the military should have the same ability to defend themselves as every other law-abiding citizen.

Update 2: But I may have gotten my hopes up too soon. Keep in mind the when a DC post-Vietnam yes man speaks, many service commanders lose their nerve and won’t enact common sense ideas even if the have the authority. As we’ll soon see in this case.

Original story:

It is long past due that we FINALLY learn the lesson that has been taught to us over and over again. From Ft. Hood to the mall in Kenya and dozens of other places to the streets of Paris tonight. We have seen every time, surprising no one, that from the moment a subhuman scum, driven by their brand of superstition, pulls a weapon from hiding to the moment the first rounds hits an innocent person, there is no force on earth to stop it. Nor is there for the second, third or tenth victim. Such is the case, anyway, in the ever-increasing number gun-free zones we have carved out.

For years we have been denied the right, in many places, to protect ourselves in situations where those charged with doing so cannot hope to – on their luckiest day. And we have tolerated it. And so like pathetic lemmings, our citizens have stood stupidly or crouched in fear, waiting for the scum to get to them; to deliver their bullet.

Through it all we have known one thing with absolute certainty. The best form of gun control is return fire. After every terrorist attack and lunatic shooting spree, people who know better have argued that we must let this happen to ourselves. We must dial 911 so cops can come, take a body count, draw chalk lines around the bodies and circles around spend casings.

Well, the low life, superstitious pieces of excrement we hear so much about being recruited here, just got a lesson in how the stage a successful, dispersed terrorist campaign. (I am honestly surprised t took so long for the scum to figure out this style of raid. But Paris has popped our cherry on that score, hasn’t it?) You can bet they and their online mentors are paying close attention. They will take the example of Paris onboard and plan accordingly. We will likely continue to do what we do and not take the correct steps to prevent such things happening here. We will be told to dial 911. We will be in a place marked “No weapons allowed”. We will stand stupidly and wait for our bullet. We have become weak and pathetic, more fearful and distrustful of each other than of the unworthy garbage who would do us harm.

Sheppard Smith naïvely commented at how incredible it was that such an attack could take place when the police were already at such a high state of alert. What an ass! That fact is, in a city, a stadium, a crowded mall, there is NO WAY to stop this kind of attack. Let me repeat that for the truly stupid. In such situations, there is NO WAY to prevent such attacks. But once started, there is a very quick, effective way to end them, armed and alert citizens.

The most egregious example of our forced cowardice is on the doors of military facilities all over the country. “No Weapons!” On any given day, but especially on this disgusting night, how can those who set these policies not see the stupidity of them? Any self-absorbed lunatic, any idiot driven by his fanatic devotion to his god, can stroll into almost all the public gathering places on military installations and have a turkey shoot. Our military personnel, trained in the use of firearms, are set up like clay pigeons for attacks like the ones still ongoing in Paris.

This sign is on the door of a military exchange.

I call on all Commanding Officers, especially O-6 through flag rank, to eliminate the regulations banning firearms where members and their families gather. All personnel, trained in the use of arms should be permitted to carry a weapon anywhere their duties take them. Gun lockers should be placed outside SCIFs for weapons to be checked by visitors. Any NCO or junior officer responsible for the training of new recruits will be required to carry a sidearm and held responsible for the safety of their charges. Where alcohol is served, weapons can reasonably be banned, but an armed contingent of duty personnel will augment base security in ensuring the safety of military members socializing there.

It’s YOUR command. Show some guts, initiative, honor, courage and some goddamn self-respect and own the security of your people. While you are at it, give them the tools to do the same for themselves and their brothers and sisters in arms. After tonight, if a solder under your command falls needlessly and helplessly at the hands of an asshole who decides to shoot up the base hospital, it won’t be the fault of some pencil neck bureaucrat in DC or even the asshole’s fault. It will be yours, Admiral, General, Colonel, Captain. You were warned tonight and you didn’t have the guts to take action. Paris is your reveille.

I call as well on my fellow citizens to come down on your state and local government like a plague of locusts and demand an end to gun-free zones. If a business wants to have a weapons ban, don’t use them. Encourage others to do the same. Forget the federal government. It’s none of their damn business. Tell your governments to create gun-friendly atmosphere. Actively encourage citizens to get the handgun out of the safe, clean it and take it to the firing range.

It is certain that now the dog shi’ite has figured out how to do this, it will be done here. Don’t let it be in your town. You have a choice. Let the subhuman wing nuts of the world, terrorists and common thugs, know that your town, your state, is not a place to be trifled with.

Good news, Mayor De Blasio has put the New York police on high alert! Yeah, that’ll work.

Update 20 Nov 15: This morning Stuart Varney expressed shock that Paris police found a huge stash of weapons after their shootout with Islamic scumbags, considering France’s draconian gun laws. Where is the shock? Don’t these people get it? In France, as in any other place where the citizens are prevented from getting guns, the criminals have no trouble acquiring them. This most true in Europe, still awash in the weapons the flooded the market after the breakup of the Soviet Union.

There is potential for a real sea change in the presidential race starting tonight. With a team of economic experts moderating what they promise will be a serious debate, the candidates will find themselves in a format where they can really shine or go down in flames.

The two people with the most to loose, of course, will be Trump and Carson. This is not only because they are the present front-runners, but because the topic of discussion is where they have consistently struggled to articulate a message.

When listening to Carson’s message, your gut tells you his position is correct. When taxes are cut the economy grows. Reporters have been challenging him on the “cost” of his tax cuts. These challenges have not been made aggressively. It is almost as if the media is teeing it up for him to drive down the center of the fairway, and he has whiffed it every time. I’ll address the correct answer to “costs” in a moment because Carson is not alone in offering tax cuts.

Trump will likely be the real wild card tonight. There will be no “gotcha” questions. Both FOX and CSNBC have been duly chastised for the most modest of “gotchas”. In FOX’s case it was the first two questions of the first debate that appeared to be direct assaults on Trump. But since then, Trump has not demonstrated the ability to speak on a socially mature level. If he is handed a powder puff tonight, an honest observer would only consider that an even worse scenario. If he gets an easy, straight-forward question and comes away sounding like he usually does, the blush will definitely come off the bloom.

Usually, when I criticize Trump in this way, his supporters get a bit defensive and point out that Trump is, at least, being honest. Of that group who have read my book, many ask if that is not the point of the book. Such a question is an incomplete understanding of the main points.

First, there is the point about honesty. How do we know he is being honest? He shouts about illegals. So what? It’s a popular issue. He blasts the other candidates. Not unusual (although as front runner, he might spend more time blasting Clinton instead of punching down). To simply say something is not an indicator of honesty in and of itself. To then not be able to elaborate on ANY point shows at best, a lack of preparation and research, and at worst, that maybe this man is dishonest. Maybe.

I did indeed say, in 16 20 24, the the most important rule is to be yourself. But it is not enough to do only that. None of the rules I lay out for winning office are by themselves enough. Yes, be yourself. Yes, lean in and don’t fear controversy. But an illiterate ditch digger can be himself. Kanye West doesn’t fear controversy. But you wouldn’t assume either is qualified to hold elected office.[1. If it ever came to it, I’d go for an unknown ditch digger. At least we wouldn’t already know he was a race-obsessed punk.]

Of equal importance is the ability to explain your position. This can be done in detail on the stump or in the form of an elevator speech to provide a sound bite. And this is where Trump fails miserably. He has built a career as the face-man for a real estate machine. While he has been fronting the cash and schmoozing the buyers, polishing his brand by being obnoxious, real negotiators and researchers have been doing the real work and negotiating the big deals. Being a market face-man and being an articulate and capable leader are worlds apart. And this is what I think will begin to twig on people tonight.

The next in line for a possible thumping is Jeb. His recent reboot isn’t impressing anyone. I said two weeks ago he’d be lucky to make it to this debate. The fact is his campaign is simply rolling forward like a spent wave sliding onto the beach. With no energy behind him he is having trouble even disturbing the sand. If he doesn’t have a Reagan/Mondale moment tonight, he is well and truly finished. I suspect he’d be dumb enough to stay on until the money ran out, but that would be embarrassing to watch. He will either make himself a solid front-runner tonight or he’ll find himself lobbying the republican nominee for a cabinet job.

So cui bono? In tonight’s debate, who might benefit from failure at the top? Well, to begin with, being in a smaller forum in the warm-up debate, Christie will command the spotlight. His numbers will go up after tonight. At the grownups’ table, Rubio and Cruz will be poised to take the ball and run with it. I would say that questions about personal finances may make Rubio wince a bit, but this is actually a shot for both of them to move well into double digits.

I do not dismiss Firoina or Paul, they can make a play here. But it would have to be a very bold one to eclipse the other front-runners.

As for the “costs” of tax cuts, and more to the point, what does this all mean in real terms to America, this is a red herring question. First, whatever tax cuts cost the government is a secondary issue. It’s not their money we are talking about. If the American tax payer says we are paying too much into an overly complicated system, then we are. Whatever tax cuts make it through the legislative process will have to be accounted for.

But fortunately for the government, as all thinking people know, a tax cut doesn’t really mean that the same percentage will be denied the government forever. When an economy has been running on a given level of taxes, and in our case an economy has been languishing at a low growth pace for eight years, a tax cut will stimulate a disproportionate level of growth. The government will benefit from new revenue streams and could potentially end up with more total dollars a year or two after the big “cut” then it was getting before. And shy of that, if the specter of waning revenues causes the government to get serious and make real spending cuts, so much the better.[2. Chapters 6 and 7, 16 20 24]

I doubt there is as much excitement about tonight as there was for the first debate. Too bad. There will be a lot more movement as a result of what we will see on FOX Business Network than from all previous debates. People will be watching the news over the next couple of days and wondering what the hell happened. But you, smart voter, will already know.