Rasmussen Reports’ final weekly Trump Change survey finds perceptions among Republicans and all voters that Donald Trump is the likely GOP presidential nominee at all time highs. The survey was begun before Ted Cruz and John Kasich quit the race.

Ninety-three percent (93%) of Likely Republican Voters now believe Trump is likely to win their party’s nomination, with 78% who say it’s Very Likely. That’s up from previous highs of 89% and 67% respectively a week ago. Three weeks ago, belief among Republicans that Trump’s nomination was Very Likely was at only 38%, but his fortunes reversed dramatically following his big win in the New York primary.

Eighty-two percent (82%) of all likely voters agree that Trump is the likely Republican nominee, with 64% who say it’s Very Likely. This is up from 80% and 55% respectively last week and also represents new highs for both findings.
(To see survey question wording, click here.)

The survey of 1,000 Likely U.S. Voters was conducted on May 3-4, 2016 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Men and those 40 and over remain more confident in Trump’s nomination than women and younger voters do.

Seventy-one percent (71%) of whites think Trump is Very Likely to be the GOP nominee, compared to 40% of blacks and 51% of other minority voters.

Only 52% of Democrats say even now that Trump is Very Likely to capture the nomination, a view shared by 63% of voters not affiliated with either major political party.

Feelings about Trump have long been mirrored in voters’ perceptions of his likely success. Only 53% of those who Strongly Approve of the job President Obama is doing, for example, believe Trump is Very Likely to be nominated by the GOP. Among voters who Strongly Disapprove of Obama’s job performance, 80% think Trump is Very Likely to win the nomination.

The survey of 1,000 Likely U.S. Voters was conducted on May 3-4, 2016 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

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