By Bawa Singh

The Pakistan Factor in India-Turkey Relations

India’s and Turkey’s bilateral relations have been marked by
cordiality and warmth since the establishment of their diplomatic relationship
in 1948.
However, the Pakistan factor has overshadowed Indo-Turkey relations during the
last several decades.

The
bilateral ties between Turkey and Pakistan
has been tied and strengthened by their historical and religious legacies.
Since the emergence of Pakistan as an independent country, bilateral relations between
Turkey and Pakistan have been marked by their strategic support to each other
in general and during the most difficult times in particular. To institutionalize and fortify these bilateral ties, the High-Level Cooperation Council was established in 2009 and further
upgraded to a High-Level Strategic
Cooperation Council. Under its purview,
51 agreements have been signed between
Pakistan and Turkey.

Apart
from maintaining cordial relations at the bilateral level, Turkey has been supporting
Pakistan in the international arena as well.
Turkey’s strategic support to Pakistan particularly
related to issues concerning India has become
a bilateral irritant between India and
Turkey. Bilateral relations between India and Turkey have also been strained by
Turkey’s religious proximity with Pakistan, particularly in recent times.

Indo-Turkey
Relations

India
and Turkey have deep historical and civilizational connections. To cement these geo-cultural relations and to build
a long-lasting partnership, India under the leadership of Prime Minister Jawaharlal
Nehru (1947-64) signed a friendship
treaty with Turkey in 1951. However, during the Cold War, these relations lost
their warmth and their crescendo of cordiality as Turkey aligned per se with the
Western powers and forged military alliances, whereas India joined the Non-Aligned
Movement. Indian PMs like Rajiv Gandhi (1984-89) and Atal Bihari Vajpayee
(1998–2004) tried their best to come out of the stalemate in relations with
Turkey, but could not make noticeable impacts on bilateral ties.

With
the end of the Cold War, some improvements could
be seen but could not cover the various divergences. The President of Turkey, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, recently
made a two-day (30 April-1 May) state visit to India, and was accompanied by a
large diplomatic delegation of 150, including parliamentarians, five cabinet
ministers — Foreign Affairs, Economy, Energy, Culture and Tourism, Transport,
Communications and Maritime Affairs — senior officials, and businessmen.
The Turkish Chief of General Staff, General Hulusi Aka, was also part of the
delegation. The composition of the delegation
shows Turkey’s political, economic, and strategic convergence of interests with
India. President Erdoğan held one-to-one meetings with Indian dignitaries such
as President Pranab Mukherjee, Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Vice President
Mohammed Hamid Ansari, and Minister of External Affairs Sushma Swaraj.

During
the visit, some areas were identified for bilateral cooperation. The heightening of the economic cooperation
found prominent place in meetings with
the Indian PM along with the business fraternity. Economically, both countries
have been on the higher trajectories. Both India and Turkey are among the top
20 economies of the world. Therefore, both countries have a lot of convergences. But the current quantum of
trade which stands at USD 6.4 billion — which was USD 2.8 billion in 2008 — does
not match the size of both countries. Investment has also been at the lower
level.

Turkey
is one of those countries that have supported Pakistan’s stand on Kashmir at
the bilateral level and at regional and international organizations.

Addressing
the India-Turkey Business Summit, attended by the visiting Turkish President, PM
Modi emphasized the need for robust economic engagements between the two
countries. The Indian PM therefore exhorted Turkish businessmen to invest in various
sectors in the Indian economy such as energy, rail, roads, ports, housing,
hydrocarbons, renewable energy, and especially in India’s flagship programmes such as “Make in India.” President Erdoğan has also pointed out that
the Indian vision of developing Smart Cities matches Turkish construction
capacities.

Both
India and Turkey have suffered from terrorism. ISIS has been operating not only
in and around Turkey but also in and around India as well. Similarly, a Turkish-based terror organization — Fethullah Terör Örgütü (FETÖ) — also poses a serious threat to Turkey’s
sovereignty. Cross-border terrorism is
also serious concern for both countries.
Therefore, counter-terrorism has been identified
one major area of cooperation between both countries. Both countries can play a
crucial role in establishing peace, stability, and justice at the regional and
global levels. President Erdoğan condemned the recent terrorist attack in India
on April 24, saying “Turkey, as a country that
is engaged in a fight against some of the most dangerous terror groups in the
world, understands very well the pain of our Indian friends. Turkey
stands in full cooperation
with India in its fight against terror.” In turn, Turkey
expects India to take steps to root out FETÖ
from its territory.

The
reform of the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) is another area where India and Turkey are on the same page. Both countries support each other’s demand for the
UNSC to include more members to reflect the diversity and democratic character
of the UN. Several other MoUs between India and Turkey were signed, including:
Cultural Exchange Programme (2017-2020); Cooperation between Foreign Service
Institute of India and Diplomacy Academy of Turkey; and India’s Telecom
Regulatory Authority of India (TRAI) and Turkey’s Information and Communication
Technologies Authority (ICTA), Turkey.

The Pakistan
Factor

Pakistan
has become a critical factor between India and Turkey. It has been argued that given the strong personal
bonds between their leaders, their deep-rooted ideological homogeneity, and the
people-to-people contacts between Turkey and Pakistan, Turkey prefers Pakistan to India. In this backdrop, it
is impossible to imagine Turkey’s relationship with India could be independent
of its ties with Pakistan. It would be naive to expect that Turkey would not
stand by Pakistan over its disputes with India. In particular, it seems that the
Kashmir issue used to be very close to the heart of the Turkish leadership. Turkey
is one of those countries that have supported Pakistan’s stand on Kashmir at
the bilateral level and at regional and international organizations, such as the
UN and the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation (OIC). The OIC, which comprises 57
Muslim countries, always issues anti-India statements.

During
his one-day visit (3 August 2016) to Pakistan,
the Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu took a very hard stance on the Kashmir issue. He reiterated Turkey’s
support forPakistan’s
position on Jammu and Kashmir, and stated that
Turkey would keep doing so until the dispute is
resolved. During the joint news conference, Cavusoglu assured Pakistani Foreign
Policy Advisor Sartaj Aziz that he would request
the UN Secretary General to make an arrangement for a fact-finding mission to
India-held Kashmir to investigate alleged atrocities committed by Indian security
forces.

Before
his visit to India, President Erdoğan advocated for the Kashmir issue’s
resolution through multilateral dialogue,
which is diametrically opposite to the Indian position for the settlement of
the issue through bilateral dialogue. He
said: “Through multilateral dialogue, I
think we have to seek out ways to settle this question (Kashmir) once and for
all, which will benefit both countries (India and Pakistan).”

India politely declined President Erdoğan’s proposal by
saying that it is a bilateral issue and
it will be sorted through the two-way dialogue. Sensing Indian sensibilities,
President Erdoğan’s senior foreign policy advisor, Ilnur Cevik, issued a
corrective statement that India and Pakistan should sort out the issue through
peaceful means.

President
Erdoğan’s proposal has been taken very favorably by Pakistan. The News
International published a statement by the Pakistani
government on 2 May 2017 that “Pakistan has always welcomed the statements and endeavors aimed at addressing the human rights
issues in IoK (the so-called India-occupied Kashmir) and the resolution of the
Jammu and Kashmir dispute.”

As
far as the issue over India’s application for membership in the Nuclear
Supplier Group’s is concerned, President Erdoğan has not opposed Indian
membership, but at the same time he has emphasized that the NSG should come out
with a clear policy for those countries which are not signatories of the Non-Proliferation
Treaty. He clearly said both India and Pakistan have equal rights for NSG
membership: “Turkey was fair enough to support Pakistan, it was fair enough to support India.” Some analysts have argued that
Pakistan’s membership of the NSG is a bête
noire for India given its somewhat suspicious
record of nuclear proliferation. Nonetheless, India expects Turkey to support its
candidature for the NSG.

Conclusion

A
cursory analysis of President Erdoğan’s visit does not give any concrete
indication that the existing differences between both countries will be ironed
out. Rather, their bilateral issues have become more confused and
controversial. President Erdoğan’s controversial
stances on Kashmir, his concerns over Indian Muslims, his emotional proximity
and warm feelings toward Pakistan, his refusal to join the “containment”
strategy over Pakistan, and his equal support for India and Pakistan’s NSG
membership, all clearly show that Indo-Turkish relations cannot remain
independent of the Pakistan factor. Moreover, President Erdoğan’s exhortation
to the Indian leadership not to draw parallels between Turkey’s Kurdish problem
and India’s Kashmir problem was a major blow to Indian interests.

Hence it may be
concluded that despite both countries sharing a tremendous potential for economic and strategic cooperation, the Pakistan
factor has paralyzed Indo-Turkish
relations. Still, their bilateral trade and investment size do not correspond
to the size of their economies, and there is need to institutionalize Indo-Turkish
relations through economic diplomacy. To ensure robust
economic and strategic relations at the bilateral level and healthy cooperation
in the international organizations to protect their individual and regional
interests, both countries need to engage and look beyond the Pakistan
factor. There is a need to dissociate Pakistan for the fortification of Indo-Turkish
relations, otherwise, there is hardly any
hope of improving these relations.

About The Author

Bawa Singh teaches at the Centre for South and Central Asian Studies, School of Global Relations, Central University of Punjab, Bathinda, India. His research interests include Indian foreign policy, maritime security and geopolitics of South and Central Asia.