Mapping El Niño's Looming Effect on Global Croplands

Something fierce is rising out of the Pacific Ocean, and its appetite for the world's major carb crops could be even more ravenous than that of a monstrous mythical sea creature. But this is a monster with some benevolence. The expected arrival of El Niño in the coming months could be a boon for protein-heavy vegetarian diets, with boosted worldwide soy yields.

For a sense of the type of havoc that extreme El Niños can wreak, think back to the late 1990s, or to the early 1980s, when widespread flooding and droughts plagued every inhabited continent.

For a sense of the type of havoc that extreme El Niños can wreak, think back to the late 1990s, or to the early 1980s, when widespread flooding and droughts plagued every inhabited continent, bleaching corals, ravaging wildlife, and killing tens of thousands of people. And as you mull over those disturbing memories of yore, chew on a sandwich—and savor it, for the weather that's forecast to strike us could make that bread harder to get.

ADVERTISEMENT

Thanks for watching!

ADVERTISEMENT

Thanks for watching!

Scientists analyzed United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization maps showing where major crops are grown—wheat, soy, rice, and corn, which provide 60 percent of the world's cropland-derived calories. They compared those maps with 20 years worth of weather observations. Then they factored regional growing seasons into their analysis to forecast how El Niño, La Niña, and the current nothing phase that lies between them (sometimes called La Nada) could affect growing conditions during the three months that precede each crop's harvest.

Overall, the researchers discovered that yields could rise from about a third of harvested areas worldwide during the coming El Niño, most notably on soybean fields, mostly because of heavier rainfall and cooler temperatures. They found that between a fifth and a quarter of harvested areas worldwide could see yields fall, largely due to hot and dry conditions expected in those places. Corn, wheat, and rice yields are all expected to fall overall. Farmers that will be hit the hardest include wheat and corn growers in parts of the United States.