Thoughts from the interface of science, religion, law and culture

After spending several years touring the country as a stand up comedian, Ed Brayton tired of explaining his jokes to small groups of dazed illiterates and turned to writing as the most common outlet for the voices in his head. He has appeared on the Rachel Maddow Show and the Thom Hartmann Show, and is almost certain that he is the only person ever to make fun of Chuck Norris on C-SPAN.

EVENTS

CBO: Immigration Reform Boosts Federal Revenue

The non-partisan Congressional Budget Office has issued a report that should provide serious ammunition for Democrats and moderate Republicans who are pushing the immigration reform bill. The report concludes that passing S. 774 would raise federal revenue and reduce the deficit pretty significantly.

CBO and the staff of the Joint Committee on Taxation (JCT) estimate that enacting S. 744 would generate changes in direct spending and revenues that would decrease federal budget deficits by $197 billion over the 2014–2023 period (see Table 1 on page 12). CBO also estimates that implementing the legislation would result in net discretionary costs of $22 billion over the 2014–2023 period, assuming appropriation of the amounts authorized or otherwise needed to implement the legislation. Combining those figures would lead to a net savings of about $175 billion over the 2014–2023 period from enacting S. 744.

The biggest reason: $459 billion in additional federal revenue during that time period that would result from moving immigrants from the underground, non-tax paying economy to the legitimate economy. And projecting further out looks even better, with estimates that it would reduce the deficit by $700 billion between 2023 and 2033. So it doesn’t just make political sense, it makes economic sense too.

1) I think the CBO accounting is intentionally dishonest –as is most federal accounting.

2) The USA has a finite supply of resources: land, agricultural land, National Parks,
water, mineral ores, fossil fuels, JOBS,etc. Increase the population by 20 million and
you reduce the share of existing Americans in America by 7% –although you will
probably make the Richest 2% richer since they will have a bigger supply of serfs.

3) Plus the USA incurs roughly $3.3 Trillion (present value) in Social Security obligations
and $2.6 Trillion (present value) in Medicare obligations. In theory, those will be offset
by payroll taxes on the 20 million immigrants’ earnings but if that theory was working,
Social Security and Medicare would not be $40 Trillion in the hole at present.

So the CBO cheerfully lists as a credit the payroll taxes from the New 20 Million over the
next 20 years — while taking NO account of the far higher obligations (future debt)
correspondingly incurred.

4) Of course, the Supreme Court has noted that Social Security and Medicare are
really a Bernie Madoff Ponzi scheme anyway. That while Democratic politicans have
been telling us for decades that we were paying into personal retirement “accounts” with assets,
the reality is that we have NO legal right to those assets.

Which is fortunate, since the assets don’t exist anyway. In 2001, George W Bush and 12
Democratic Senators voted to give the existing assets in the Trust Funds to the Rich as tax cuts.

5) While it is true they gave you a government bond in return for the money they
stole from you, that bond is an obligation on YOU –not on the Rich. I.e, you get back
$100,000 or so only if you first pay the government ANOTHER $100,000 in taxes
so that it can redeem the bond and pay you the $100,000 in benefits.

By the strangest coincidence, all the assets in your middle class IRA/401K life savings
can be taxed at as high a rate as the government wants — at 99 % if need be.

Meanwhile the Fifth Amendment prohibits the government from “taking” the wealth of the
Rich. Amazing how that works, huh?

6) Back in March 2001, I sent 3 letters to the New York Times –the “liberal” newspaper–
pointing out item 5. They chose to not warn the Rabble, for some reason.

Maybe because the Times’ wealthy owners’ need for the tax cut money overrode their strong sense
of loyalty and deep emotional ties to the common blue collar Democratic voter.
Amazing how often that happens.

@ Don Williams: How does the US have a finite supply of jobs? If you increase the population, all those new people need places to live, stuff to eat, bicycles, cars, etc and that all means there’s more work to go around.

I’m sure all fifty “moderate” Republicans (so important and powerful and unified that the Tuesday Group is, um, informal) will be heartened to know about this while they’re trying to figure out how to do the right thing without getting primaried (“Congressman So Andso voted for Barack Hussein Obama’s amnesty program. Congressman So Andso thinks that illegal immigrants stealing your jobs is a good thing. Who does Congressman So Andso really work for? Congressman So Andso; bad for [this state], bad for America. [This ad paid for by Americans for Liberty and Baseball and Also Apple Pie]”), keeping in mind they’re so moderate that only ten members of the GOP in the House voted against the Ryan budget (and at least four of those were because the bill wasn’t dystopian enough).
The party is still going to do everything it can to sink it or poison it to the point that even if it passes it won’t matter. That’s what it does. Government’s success is the GOP’s failure.

So 20 million more immigrants will gobble up our finite resources? That’s odd, because Rush Limbaugh and other wingnuts are wailing over 50 million aborted babies who, if born, they claim would generate enough tax revenue to save Social Security AND Medicare.

Hmmm. With the Democratic Party advised by such macroeconomic geniuses, I’m puzzled why the black community has suffered 15% unemployment in the five years since the Democrats were given the White House, a huge supermajority in the House and a filibuster proof majority in the Senate.

And why the median wage has fallen.

I remember some of the same arguments being made by Bill Clinton for NAFTA. But last time I checked,
billionaire Carlos Slim wasn’t on a massive hiring spree in Detroit.

Maybe someone can get Larry Summers, Sandy Weill, Robert Rubin and Bill Clinton to explain to me how admitting 20 million more people will encourage our plutocrats to raise wages and find jobs for the 25 million Americans currently unemployed. After they finish explaining how repealing Glass Steagall was such a good deal for the American People.

Why is Don Williams blaming wage stagnation and unemployment on immigration reform that hasn’t yet happened? Everyone knows it’s really because Avengers 2 is going to be such a horrific disappointment that it will retroactively destroy the movie industry, and by extension all of the American economy, starting with AIG.

Seriously, Don, could you try to make points that actually follow each other?

Also… “explain to me how admitting 20 million more people will encourage…” Admitting. Nice choice of word there. I assume you mean it in the sense of allowing more people into the country. But it’s really the other meaning that applies: acknowledging that they are already here, and here to stay.

Crip Dyke, Right Reverend Feminist FuckToy of Death & Her Handmaidensays

First the gays insisted on getting their blackmail/protection money back from the NY Cops. But I wasn’t a tenner, so I did not speak out. Then they came for their diagnosis. And I did not speak out, because I was not a copy of the DSM. Next they came for their health care, and I did not speak out because I was not a vaccine. Then they came for their apartments and jobs, and I did not speak out because I was not an apartment or a job. Finally, they came for their wedding formalwear. And no one spoke for me, a tuxedo, because no one was left to speak.

Hmmm. With the Democratic Party advised by such macroeconomic geniuses, I’m puzzled why the black community has suffered 15% unemployment in the five years since the Democrats were given the White House, a huge supermajority in the House and a filibuster proof majority in the Senate.

I don’t know what planet you’re living on, but the democrats haven’t had a majority in the House for 2.5 years now and their “filibuster proof” majority in the Senate was only for a period of about six months until a special election took the 60th seat away from them.

Also, exporting jobs is rather different than immigrants coming here, or recognizing the ones that are already here. Let’s say you run a restaurant near a factory. If the jobs there are given to Pakistanis who move into town to take the jobs, you still have plenty of customers, though you may have to adapt your menu. If the jobs are given to Pakistanis in Pakistan, all your business from the factory workers is gone.

Re Johnny at 14: “Seriously, Don, could you try to make points that actually follow each other? ”

Actually, my points were clear but you deliberately avoided them in order to attack the false strawman you constructed.

The Democrats has enormous power starting in January 2009 — so where did they show that they gave a hairy rodent’s posterior for America’s vast crowd of unemployed? We know what FDR did in the 1930s — so what did Obama and the Democratic Caucus do in 2009-2010?

Why bring in 20 million more immigrants when unemployment in the black and Hispanic communities is so high? Don’t you care about your fellow Americans?

The Richest 2 percent have increased their share of the national income from 8% in 1978 to almost 25% today — and Democrats were in power during much of that interval. Meanwhile the median wage is well below what it was 30 years ago.

During the Bush Administration, I spent months of my own time –and money — working in 3 Democratic congressional campaigns, in Howard Dean’s 2004 Presidential campaign and in Barack Obama’s 2008 campaign. And I am sick and tired of this bland, two-faced hypocrisy in the Democratic leadership. The people who fight this country’s wars — and who sweat to produce this country’s wealth — should not continue to be screwed by lying whores for the Rich.

@Don Williams: As other people have pointed out, this plan isn’t about bringing in more immigrants. It’s about recognizing ones already here. In fact, some of those unemployed Hispanics you are so worried about would become more employable, at least at living wages.

Also, where’s your evidence that immigration increases unemployment? That only makes sense if you assume a finite amount of jobs, which makes more sense. More consumers means more jobs to do.

And that’s ignoring the problem of why Americans deserve better than foreigners by dint of being born on the correct side of an imaginary line.

Crip Dyke, Right Reverend Feminist FuckToy of Death & Her Handmaidensays

Re Ace at 19:
The cited CBO reports says the reform law will bring in 10 million more –not counting 8 million who are already here and who will have their status made legal. Plus it will increase the H1B visa limit to bring in 1 million more foreign engineers to displace American engineers in Silicon Valley.

The unemployment rate for returning veterans from Iraq and Afghanistan was 15 % last year — and only reduced to 9 percent just before the election because a lot of vets were hired by the government to avoid embarrassment before the election.

Geez Don, did I say your points were unclear? No, I said they didn’t follow. And by way of response you give us a whole nother batch of things you dislike about Democrats. You worked on Democratic campaigns, therefore legalizing immigrants will destroy the country. The minimum wage has been stagnant for years, therefore immigration reform will, something. I don’t challenge the original assertions; I challenge the logical connections to immigration.

You have one sentence there about immigration:

Why bring in 20 million more immigrants when unemployment in the black and Hispanic communities is so high? Don’t you care about your fellow Americans?

And so we see you are a racist. Yes, I care about my fellow Americans. Do you care only about people born here? What native tribe are you a full-blooded member of? And if you can’t answer that question because you aren’t, think do me a favor and fuck off.

1) It is not racist to note that the world is organized into nation states and that our first duty is to our fellow countrymen — especially when they have risked their lives in combat to protect us. Although I suppose people who have never been within 500 miles of an active battlefield could overlook that.

2) I mentioned the black and Hispanic communities because they vote in overwhelming numbers for Democratic politicans — so ignoring their misery , high unemployment and fall into long term poverty is even
more of a betrayal. The Democratic leadership has openly acknowledged that it has written off white male Americans –including blue collar union workers.

3) What I owe foreigners is peace and nonaggression. Live and let live. They solve their problems and we solve ours. It was not me who voted for an unnecessary war that killed 4500 Americans and 100,000 Iraqi civilians because major billionaire Democratic donor Haim Saban thought it would be good for Israel. I opposed that war.

4) With 25 million Americans unemployed it is obvious that there are not enough jobs. It is also obvious that bringing in 20 million more people will drive wages down even further than they have already fallen.
And chanting “macroeconomics” merely shows a snakehandling religious faith in people and policies who have already failed on a massive scale.