March 08, 2012

Obama crushing Republican field in Maine

Raleigh, N.C. – President Obama leads each of his potential Republican challengers in Maine by 15 points or more, a new poll from Public Policy Polling finds. The President leads Mitt Romney in Maine 58-35 (up from 49-38 the last time PPP polled the matchup in October), leads Rick Santorum 58-35, and leads Newt Gingrich 60-32 (up from 55-35 compared to last October). Ron Paul actually performs best against Obama but still loses by 16 points, 54-38.

The Republican candidates suffer from horrific favorability ratings. Mitt Romney is viewed favorably by just 30% of voters compared to 63% who view him unfavorably (down from 38-49 last October). Rick Santorum sits at 29% favorable and 63% unfavorable. Newt Gingrich sees the worst favorability rating of the group at 17% favorable and 74% unfavorable (somehow down even further compared to where he was last October at 25-63). Ron Paul once again performs best, with a 34% favorable and 54% unfavorable opinion rating (up slightly from 24-57 last October).

Meanwhile President Obama enjoys a healthy 55-41 positive job approval rating in Maine, up sharply from 47-48 the last time PPP polled Maine in October.

“Maine voters just flat-out don’t like any of the Republican candidiates and that, combined with Obama’s improving job approval numbers, make Maine a lock for Democrats on the Presidential level this fall,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling.

PPP also asked Republican primary voters who they would most like to see as the Republican candidate for President: 35% chose Mitt Romney, 30% said Santorum, 17% said Ron Paul, and 12% said Newt Gingrich.

PPP surveyed 1,256 Maine voters, including 369 Republican primary voters, from March 2nd to 4th. The margin of error is +/-2.8% for the entire survey and +/-5.1% for the Republican sample. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews. PPP is a Democratic polling company, but polling expert Nate Silver of the New York Times found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward Republican candidates.

Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.

Q6 If the candidates for President this year wereDemocrat Barack Obama and RepublicanNewt Gingrich, who would you vote for?Barack Obama................................................ 60%Newt Gingrich ................................................. 32%Undecided....................................................... 8%

Q7 If the candidates for President this year wereDemocrat Barack Obama and Republican RonPaul, who would you vote for?Barack Obama................................................ 54%Ron Paul ......................................................... 38%Undecided....................................................... 8%

Q8 If the candidates for President this year wereDemocrat Barack Obama and Republican MittRomney, who would you vote for?Barack Obama................................................ 58%Mitt Romney.................................................... 35%Undecided....................................................... 7%

Q9 If the candidates for President this year wereDemocrat Barack Obama and Republican RickSantorum, who would you vote for?Barack Obama................................................ 58%Rick Santorum................................................ 35%Undecided....................................................... 7%

Q10 Given the choices of Newt Gingrich, Ron Paul,Mitt Romney, and Rick Santorum, who wouldyou most like to see as the Republicancandidate for President? (Asked of 369Republican primary voters)Newt Gingrich ................................................. 12%Ron Paul ......................................................... 17%Mitt Romney.................................................... 35%Rick Santorum................................................ 30%Not sure .......................................................... 7%

Q11 Who did you vote for President in 2008?John McCain................................................... 37%Barack Obama................................................ 57%Someone else/Don't remember ...................... 7%

Q13 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.Woman ........................................................... 50%Man................................................................. 50%

Q14 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,press 2. If you are an independent or identifywith another party, press 3.Democrat ........................................................ 43%Republican...................................................... 34%Independent/Other.......................................... 23%

Q16 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you areolder than 65, press 4.18 to 29........................................................... 12%30 to 45........................................................... 24%46 to 65........................................................... 44%Older than 65.................................................. 20%

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