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Kathleen Wynne should take heart from Quebec election

The unexpected Liberal majority win in Quebec is good news for all Canadians, and particularly for Premier Kathleen Wynne and the Ontario Liberals.

Ontario Premier Kathleen Wynne’s strategy to stay in power and gain re-election resembles that of the recently triumphant Quebec Liberals: focus on inclusion and on the economy. (Lucas Oleniuk / Toronto Star)

By Thomas Klassen

Mon., April 21, 2014

The unexpected outcome of Quebec’s election — a majority for the Liberals — is good news for Canada as talk of sovereignty is shelved for the foreseeable future. However, Ontario Premier Kathleen Wynne can take special satisfaction from the results of the vote.

Like Quebec Liberal Leader Philippe Couillard, Wynne heads a party that has been in power for nearly a decade. Moreover, both the Quebec and Ontario parties stand accused of possible fraud and wasting taxpayer money.

Wynne’s strategy to stay in power and gain re-election resembles that of Couillard: focus on inclusion and on the economy. Both during the election in Quebec, and thereafter as premier-designate Couillard stressed that his province is a “welcoming society.” In Ontario, Wynne takes the same tack, and can point to being Canada’s first lesbian premier. Both leaders argue that their opponents are likely to foster division and take hardline stances.

Quebec’s Liberals won their majority largely because voters deemed them better than their opponents at dealing with economic policy. Wynne is working hard to make the same case in Ontario.

However, economic policy largely rests in Ottawa where trade deals are struck and interest rates set. Fortunately for both leaders, macroeconomic policy has benefitted the incumbent parties in central Canada.

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Extraordinarily low interest rates since 2008 have allowed more Canadians to buy homes, and proven of benefit to existing homeowners. Voters might worry about jobs and pensions, but many have seen substantial increases in the value of their homes.

Wynne is also well aware that rural ridings play a particularly significant role in Ontario elections. The same is true in Quebec, where the Liberals performed far better in rural and more conservative ridings that were expected to support the PQ.

For the Liberals to remain in power in Ontario, they must garner votes outside of their traditional urban strongholds. Wynne has shrewdly appointed herself as minister of Agriculture and Food. In this role, she is visible in rural communities and via decisions of the ministry is seen as directly helping farmers.

Record-low interest rates have allowed many farmers to borrow to modernize their operations, improve efficiency and to buy or lease additional lands. Recent free trade agreements, such as with South Korea, will benefit the wine industry in the Niagara region. Lastly, the opportunity created by the Liberals for farmers to generate electricity from solar panels and sell it to the government has become a valuable second source of income for many.

Wynne, unlike her Quebec Liberal colleagues, has one more advantage in fighting the next election: Ontario voters don’t like to see the same party in power in Ottawa and Queen’s Park. For more than 60 years, when the Conservatives ruled in Ottawa, the Liberals held power in Ontario, and vice-versa.

With the Harper Conservatives dedicated to a shrinking government and limiting social programs, Ontarians have little to gain, and much to fear, from voting for a provincial Conservative government.

The next election in Ontario, like Quebec’s recent vote, will be a bruising affair. The win by the Quebec Liberals points to the pitfalls the Conservatives and NDP face in Ontario. Fighting an election on ideology is not going to work. Not surprisingly, Progressive Conservative Leader Tim Hudak recently backed away from a proposal to make union dues optional. The NDP is toiling hard to burnish its economic credibility, including promising a balanced budget by 2017-18.

When premiers Couillard and Wynne meet for the first time, talk will surely drift behind doors to what lessons Ontario’s Liberals can learn. Watch for those lessons to be at the forefront when Ontario’s election campaign starts.

Thomas Klassen is a professor of political science at York University.

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