What Does ‘Extended Period’ Really Mean?

The Federal Reserve decided on January 27 to keep interestrates at historically low levels despite pronouncing a continued pickup in economic activity and a deceleration of job losses. Faced with a double digit unemployment rate, tight credit conditions, and real estate price depreciation, the decision was not surprising. However, the federal funds rate has been pegged between 0 percent and 0.25 percent since December 2008, and the Fed’s ongoing comment that economic conditions “are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate for an extended period” does cause us to re-ask the following questions: “What does the Fed mean by ‘extended period,’ and how should client portfolios be positioned?”

The Federal Reserve decided on January 27 to keep interestrates at historically low levels despite pronouncing a continued pickup in economic activity and a deceleration of job losses. Faced with a double digit unemployment rate, tight credit conditions, and real estate price depreciation, the decision was not surprising. However, the federal funds rate has been pegged between 0 percent and 0.25 percent since December 2008, and the Fed’s ongoing comment that economic conditions “are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate for an extended period” does cause us to re-ask the following questions: “What does the Fed mean by ‘extended period,’ and how should client portfolios be positioned?”