In addition to dealing with a topsy-turvy bond market, mortgage lenders had to get a handle on a gigantic surge of refinance applications in late February and early March after mortgage rates fell dramatically.

Most lenders were swamped with as many applications as their staffs could handle. As they reached capacity, they raised rates to temporarily discourage customers.

The Federal Reserve can’t increase lenders’ capacity to process loan applications, but it does have tools to stop the cycle of falling bond prices. The central bank’s first effort was March 15, when it pledged to buy at least $200 billion in mortgage-backed securities over the coming months.

The Fed ended up buying nearly half that allotment in just a week.

Round two began March 23, when the Fed announced that it would spend as much money on mortgage-backed securities as necessary “to support smooth market functioning.”

The Fed has shown that it will buy astonishing quantities of mortgage bonds to bring stability to mortgage rates. It seems like a safe bet that it will succeed. But this has been an unpredictable year. The sell-by date on predictions is short. For rate forecasters, humility is in high demand.

Portland, Oregon, Mayor Ted Wheeler on Saturday ordered the city's police to stop using a common type of tear gas except as a last resort in life-threatening situations, making it one of several cities that have started restricting law enforcement tactics in response to widespread protests over the killing of George Floyd.

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