Tuesday, August 31, 2010

Monday, August 30, 2010

Rep. Ron Paul (R-Texas) said he plans to introduce legislation next year to force an audit of U.S. holdings of gold.

Paul, a longtime critic of the Federal Reserve and U.S. monetary policy, said he believes it's "a possibility" that there might not actually be any gold in the vaults of Fort Knox or the New York Federal Reserve bank.

The libertarian lawmaker told Kitco News, a website tracking news about precious metals, that an audit was necessary to determine how much the U.S. maintains in gold reserves in case the government were to use gold to back the dollar.

“If there was no question about the gold being there, you think they would be anxious to prove gold is there,” he said.

“Our Federal Reserve admits to nothing, and they should prove all the gold is there. There is a reason to be suspicious and even if you are not suspicious why wouldn’t you have an audit?

“I think it is a possibility," Paul said when asked if there was truth to rumors that there was actually no gold at Ft. Knox or the New York Fed.

Summary: I’m back from vacation, and yes, of course the plane trip to Ireland was delayed andthose air plane seats are still getting smaller and closer together, but Ireland is abeautiful country with beautiful and happy people—maybe it’s the Guinness. But therelief I feel about being home is fantastic. That is not just because of the good oldU.S.A., but because I have a long history of stock markets waiting on my vacation toplummet and crash. It is much more reliable than (what is that name??) the Hindenburg Omen, etc. So, on this bright Monday morning, with my typical jet lag, I’m looking at the news of the past week to catch up.

What was the best news of the week that caused that great market rally on Friday that helped to neuter any vacation market decline? Was it the Bernanke speech, or themore in depth analysis of the GDP revision? Or maybe it was upcoming elections that seem to indicate that Nancy Pelosi’s influence might be taken away. It was a fairly interesting week news wise, but no, none of these rate at the top of my list. The most interesting DISCOVERY came when Jason Goepfert and Mark teamed up to give 98% odds that the next 3 months would be up AND if that 3-month outlook didn’t do it for you, they further amplified that we’re about to enter the best seasonal pattern known to mankind. This impending pattern matches the November to April strong historical pattern with the perfect mid-term election years. 98%???? I know, even those are not good enough odds when you are looking over that cliff being described by the“double-dippers.” The water seems to be pretty cold, and you want to wait until it warms up to really jump in.

We’ve given up on you “jumping in.” The memories of that once-in-a-hundred-yearfinancial collapse and pain of 2008 are too powerful, it seems, for the investor. But….could we just encourage you to stick one toe in???

There are so many great stories emerging from our Psychology, Monetary andValuation reviews, but the flamboyant headlines of “Hindenburgs” and “New Normals”are sending any hopes of rejuvenating optimism deep into the shadows of fear and anxiety.

But…we only want one brave toe to timidly sneak up on today’s opportunity.

Let’s see…let’s just look at this story, and see if we can build up our courage......

iPod refresh on the horizon; the Facetime network effect. Apple (Buy, $241.62) will hold a special event on September 1st where we expect Steve Jobs to refresh the iPod lineup and possibly highlight new features in Apple TV / content deals. Traditionally, the September event is music focused and we expect the entire iPod lineup to be refreshed with capacity upgrades/new functionality. Specifically, we believe the new iPod Touch is likely to contain multiple cameras and be Facetime enabled while the nano/shuffle could have a touch screen. We expect the new iPod portfolio to be available shortly after the event, which should spur incremental unit demand, positive product mix (towards higher-end iPod Touch) and support results in the September quarter (DB at 9.5M iPods). Perhaps more importantly, we expect Apple to reveal the next step in broadening the availability of its Facetime app. As highlighted below, we estimate that the size of the iPhone Facetime network alone will grow to ~6,000Bln unique possible connections (~100Mln+ users) by the end of 2012. If Apple extends Facetime to other HW platforms (iPad, iTouch, Mac) over the course of the next year, we estimate the Facetime network would be ~4x larger at 25,000Bln (225Mln+ installed base) in the same period. We believe Apple is acutely aware of the power of networks and is applying this concept to accelerate adoption of its platform. Facetime not only adds to the many features that makes Apple’s current product offering the strongest in its history, but it also has the potential to increase the stickiness of the platform exponentially. Reiterate Buy and $375 PT.

Amid the market tumult, a handful of stocks have seen their share prices ratchet up to record highs in recent weeks. And many of them are connected by a curious, if disconcerting, thread: Between them, they provide an investor with essentials for any respectable fallout shelter—makers of bottled water, canned goods, dehydrated broth, gas masks and auxiliary generators.

A portfolio of the 18 companies that reached their peaks in the past month would be up about 24% this year, compared with the broader market's 4.5% decline, a sign some investors may be taking the prospects of financial Armageddon more seriously than one might think.
Hormel Foods Inc., the 120-year-old producer of that dugout staple, Spam, is up 12% this year, and hit an all-time high of $43.95 in recent weeks. The company's stable of long-life provisions, from instant packets of dehydrated broth to wrapped sausages, are critical for weathering even the most prolonged storm.

Bottled-drink maker Dr Pepper Snapple Group Inc., whose brands include DejaBlue purified drinking water, has soared 32% this year. The company also makes Schweppes ginger ale, great for any gnawing queasiness.

Also in the bunker club, Cummins Inc. The maker of a wide range of auxiliary power generators in addition to truck engines is up 66% this year. Shares of the Columbus, Ind., manufacturer hit a record $81.83 last Wednesday.

Hard hats and gas masks? Airgas Inc. makes both. Shares of the Radnor, Pa.-based company, which spiked in February after a hostile bid from rival Air Products & Chemicals Inc., has since added to those gains, hitting its best-ever close, at $66.72, on Friday.

"If it's the end of the world, what do you buy? Canned foods, guns and the generators," said Keith Springer, president of Capital Financial Advisory Services. "There are a huge number of people who feel this is the end of the world."

So let's see where the demand for Cummin's engines is coming from. Is there success due to demand for generators from the end of the world crowd?

From Cummins' latest earnings release:
“The work we have done to strengthen our manufacturing operations during the downturn has resulted in significant productivity gains, and we continue to benefit from our leadership position in large and growing international markets such as China, India and Brazil.”

Segment profit for the All Other Segment, which consists primarily of Hormel Foods International, was up slightly for the third quarter. Strong export sales of the SPAM(R) family of products were largely offset by higher raw material costs during the quarter.

Oh My! Profits from Spam were actually down!! And strength in Spam was in exports.

And that's the WSJ. Exporting their bearish Spam because it makes a good story.

Because they want you to believe we are all going from McMansions to fallout shelters!

"You will see how James Toney boxes."
"You will see that James Toney hits hard."
"You will see why James Toney hardly ever gets hit."
"As far as takedowns come, I welcome them. If he tries to take me down, it's going to be a short night for him. A very short night."

Saturday, August 28, 2010

The permabears just hate it when investors supposedly "overlook" the fundamentals. Masbe they see something the permabears don't!!

BarronsInvestors seem to be whistling by the graveyard; what, me worry?

A POLISH CHAP LIVING IN GERMANY went to the doctor, so reported the BBC last week, complaining of what he thought was a cyst in his scalp that turned out to be a .22-calibre bullet lodged in the back of his head. The bullet had not, fortunately, penetrated his skull and it was duly removed.

People get plugged all the time these days, of course, but supposedly this happened in 2004 or 2005. In other words, this poor fellow had been carrying around the bullet in his head for five or six years.

The victim, apparently, of a stray celebratory bullet fired at midnight during a New Year's party, the man claimed he was too soused to be aware of being shot but allowed as he felt as if he had received a blow to his noggin. So how come he waited all this time to do something about it?

He explained to the police that although he did remember having a sore head, "he wasn't really one for going to the doctor." We can only conclude that not only is he blessed with a remarkably hard bean, but he also must have a visually impaired barber. Or, maybe it's the latest fashion in Germany to walk around with a bullet in your scalp.

To Société Générale's Albert Edwards, who recounts this incident in his latest market rant, the fellow's lack of awareness is akin to the blithe insouciance of equity investors to the prospect of the global economy sliding back into recession, accompanied by another leg down in the bear market. "The vast bulk of the investment industry," he exclaims, "fails to appreciate that we are locked in a structural bear market" that is about to enter its "final, even bloodier phase."

Albert repeats his oft-voiced conviction that the bear market won't end until stocks become dirt cheap, with the S&P 500 some 800 points below its current price of around 1050 and, equally important, "revulsion in equities as an asset class hangs in the air like a fog."

He contends that excessive valuation is particularly true of our market, but warns that other markets just about everywhere, even those less richly priced, will not escape the full fury of the raging bear. We think we're safe in characterizing his foreboding as not an optimistic forecast. However, his prediction of 250 on the S&P 500 does smack a bit of excessive devaluation.

But we second his notion that the surest sign of a true bottom will be when investors en masse become thoroughly sour on stocks—as they were, as we recall, at the end of the great 1973-74 bear market. Such total disenchantment was decidedly lacking in the aftermath of the dot-com bust and the 2008-early-'09 collapse, despite the enormous damage both ugly episodes wreaked on investors' net worth. Enthusiasm for equities was temporarily chilled but far from extinguished. As Exhibit A, we offer the rousing 80% rally from last year's depths.

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That just shows how desperate the bears are. They quote a smack talking market bear that needs to go in the ring with a bull!!

Interest on reserves. In October 2008, the Fed acquired the power to pay interest on the balances that banks hold on reserve at the Fed. It has been using that power ever since, with the interest rate on reserves now at 25 basis points. Puny, yes, but not compared to the yields on Treasury bills, federal funds, or checking accounts. And at that puny interest rate, banks are voluntarily holding about $1 trillion of excess reserves.

So the third easing option is to cut the interest rate on reserves in order to induce bankers to disgorge some of them. Unfortunately, going from 25 basis points to zero is not much. But why stop there? How about minus 25 basis points? That may sound crazy, but central bank balances can pay negative rates of interest. It's happened.

Charging 25 basis points for storage should get banks sending money elsewhere. The question is where. If they just move money from their accounts at the Fed to the federal funds market, the funds rate will fall—but it can't fall far. After all, it has averaged only 16 basis points since December 2008. If banks move the money into Treasury bills instead, the T-bill rate will fall. But even if it drops all the way to zero, that's not a big change from its 12-month average of 11 basis points (for three-month bills). So charging 25 basis points is no panacea.

So now anyone that said selling bonds is a Cassandra. Whatever. The housing bubble, was recognized by the whole world as a bubble--except of course, for Warren Buffett and Ben Bernanke--and look at the damage housing did to the economy.

So does that mean PIMCO's Bill Gross will remain unscathed as yields ratchet higher?

Oh no--we are in a deflationary environment--or so we are told, and rates will stay down here forever.

And now, the architect of the boom and bust, Benjamin Shalom Bernanke, will lead us to the promised land with low rates forever??

Big deal. They're repaying $18 million of the $1.8 billion they made.Bloomberg
Blackstone Group LP is refunding some performance fees earned during the commercial real estate boom, the first time fund investors have clawed back cash from executives at the world’s largest private-equity company.

Blackstone and some of its managers returned $3 million in carried interest to investors in Blackstone Real Estate Partners International LP during the second quarter, said a person with knowledge of the payments. They may pay back an estimated $15.7 million this quarter to another fund, Blackstone Real Estate Partners IV, according to the person and a regulatory filing.

Blackstone’s property buyout funds recorded performance fees totaling $1.74 billion, some of which was allocated to the firm’s partners, as the market for office towers, hotels and apartments soared from 2004 to 2007. Prices have slumped about 39 percent since then, leaving New York-based Blackstone and its rivals in a position similar to that of venture capital firms about a decade ago, when the collapse of technology stocks forced them to return profits earned on Internet companies during the 1990s.

Seriously. This is a real offer. In fact, you really can't turn me down, as you'll come to understand in a moment…

Here's the deal. You're going to start a business or expand the one you've got now. It doesn't really matter what you do or what you're going to do. I'll partner with you no matter what business you're in – as long as it's legal.

But I can't give you any capital – you have to come up with that on your own. I won't give you any labor – that's definitely up to you. What I will do, however, is demand you follow all sorts of rules about what products and services you can offer, how much (and how often) you pay your employees, and where and when you're allowed to operate your business. That's my role in the affair: to tell you what to do.

Now in return for my rules, I'm going to take roughly half of whatever you make in the business each year. Half seems fair, doesn't it? I think so. Of course, that's half of your profits.

You're also going to have to pay me about 12% of whatever you decide to pay your employees because you've got to cover my expenses for promulgating all of the rules about who you can employ, when, where, and how. Come on, you're my partner. It's only "fair."

Now… after you've put your hard-earned savings at risk to start this business, and after you've worked hard at it for a few decades (paying me my 50% or a bit more along the way each year), you might decide you'd like to cash out – to finally live the good life.

Whether or not this is "fair" – some people never can afford to retire – is a different argument. As your partner, I'm happy for you to sell whenever you'd like… because our agreement says, if you sell, you have to pay me an additional 20% of whatever the capitalized value of the business is at that time.

I know… I know… you put up all the original capital. You took all the risks. You put in all of the labor. That's all true. But I've done my part, too. I've collected 50% of the profits each year. And I've always come up with more rules for you to follow each year. Therefore, I deserve another, final 20% slice of the business.

Oh… and one more thing…

Even after you've sold the business and paid all of my fees… I'd recommend buying lots of life insurance. You see, even after you've been retired for years, when you die, you'll have to pay me 50% of whatever your estate is worth.

After all, I've got lots of partners and not all of them are as successful as you and your family. We don't think it's "fair" for your kids to have such a big advantage. But if you buy enough life insurance, you can finance this expense for your children.

All in all, if you're a very successful entrepreneur… if you're one of the rare, lucky, and hard-working people who can create a new company, employ lots of people, and satisfy the public… you'll end up paying me more than 75% of your income over your life. Thanks so much.

I'm sure you'll think my offer is reasonable and happily partner with me… but it doesn't really matter how you feel about it because if you ever try to stiff me – or cheat me on any of my fees or rules – I'll break down your door in the middle of the night, threaten you and your family with heavy, automatic weapons, and throw you in jail.

That's how civil society is supposed to work, right? This is America, isn't it?

That's the offer America gives its entrepreneurs. And the idiots in Washington wonder why there are no new jobs…

"After the election, the tension alleviates, and markets advance. How can we say that? Because the median return for the short six month window after a mid‐cycle election (from November to April) has averaged 16% since 1930"

"The Assembly needs to reverse the massive and retroactive increase in pension formulas it enacted 11 years ago. It also needs to prohibit "spiking"—giving someone a big raise in his last year of work so his pension is boosted. Government employees must be required to increase their contributions to pensions. Public pension funds must make truthful financial disclosures to the public as to the size of their liabilities, and they must use reasonable projected rates of returns on their investments. The legislature could pass those reforms in five minutes, the same amount of time it took them to pass that massive pension boost 11 years ago that adds additional costs every single day they refuse to act."

This isn’t AuH2O or eco-fashion related, but I participated in a Nike Commercial last Sunday, July 25, and since I have a blog, I’m writing about it. One quick justification since this is mainly a blog about socially conscious clothing (though lately it has been about the World Cup and nail art). I know Nike isn’t like the gold standard for sweatshop-free clothes, but they’re actually kind of green and making a significant effort to be sustainable. For one, they’re making shoes entirely from manufacturing wastes through the program Nike Trash Talk and for two, they’re recycling old shoes to make surfaces, like tracks. I read about it in the book “Style, Naturally” by Summer Rayne Oaks, and she’s for real, plus I checked out their site http://nikeresponsibility.com and it seems legit. So, Nike isn’t so bad at all. Plus, for the World Cup, they made all of their uniforms out of recycled plastic water bottles. Therefore, I am not the devil, or a sell-out, and do not feel bad about it. In fact, I feel totally awesome about it.

Here’s what happened. I got an email from my soccer coach Tuesday afternoon saying Nike was looking to cast 20 athletic, soccer-looking women between the ages of 18-30 with “crazy soccer skills” for a commercial featuring Hope Solo, the keeper for the US Women’s National Team. The commercial was also supposed to have Lebron James and Adrian Peterson in it, and I think they’re kind of famous. The casting call was the next day, Wednesday, from 3-8pm at a studio on 37th street. If we got cast, we’d be playing soccer on camera on Sunday in Philadelphia, and would get paid serious money. Now, I look pretty athletic and soccer-y, I’m 26 years old, and I’ve played some soccer in my life, so even though it meant closing up my store for a few hours, I decided to audition. I showed up at the studio, which was an official-looking place packed full of athletic-looking people, at about 4:30 and was assigned number 53, meaning 52 women had come before me. And the casting was still open for another few hours! Once our number was called, we went into the little filming room and answered a few questions, took a few photos, did some one-touch passing, juggled the ball a little bit and that was that. I couldn’t have been more nervous- I was sweating bullets, unable to stop talking, going on about how much I love Hope Solo but I’m a little jealous because my boyfriend thinks she’s hot, etc. Not very professional, but very enthusiastic! Dan, the casting director (super nice guy), asked me to take my hair out of its usual curly high knot-looking bun-mess and show him what it looked like in a low pony-tail because there would be a Brazilian team playing the US, and maybe I could pass for Brazilian? To be fair, I get that all the time. No, that’s obviously not true. But it was then that I thought I might, just might, have a chance at getting a role as a Brazilian National Team player for a Nike commercial. He told us they’d contact us if we were chosen, so I left the studio holding my breath.

Two days later, I got a text from Dan from Atmosphere Casting. It was the most serious text I’ve ever received, saying I was “officially booked” for the Nike Commercial, we’d be leaving at 5am on Sunday morning outside Penn Station. Good thing I was having a fashion show the night before that would last until midnight. Oh well!

So, Sunday morning my alarm went off at 4:20am, I somehow woke up, and somehow shuffled out the door and onto the train. I got to Penn Station by 5am exactly, checked in, and met up with a few friends from my team that were also cast, Julie and Veronica. Our bus took off at 5:15, which was, most importantly, when our pay clock started. We were getting paid an hourly rate that was more than what I paid my intern for that day. Just writing that makes me feel bad. She’ll get a bonus when I get my Nike check. Anyway, below is everyone getting on the bus at the crack of dawn:

I wish I could say I slept the whole bus ride, but I was too riled up from the show the night before, going to bed at 1am, and the upcoming day. I slept a little though, and we arrived at the Philadelphia Union stadium at 7:30am:

Once there, we registered, filled out some paperwork, and found out our roles for the day. Julie, my friend from my women’s team, was cast as the SWEEPER FOR THE US! She was going to be HOPE SOLO’S sweeper- SO LUCKY! OMG, so jello! So totes lime green jello! I don’t really talk like that, but I mean… what were Veronica and I cast as? Oh, bench players for Brazil. Not only was I on the losing team, but I was on the bench. Sort of felt like a loser. But super nice Dan from Atmosphere Casting said we were “hand selected” by the Director to play that role, so we shouldn’t feel bad. Plus, we got to be in the warm-up scene, and we had very important roles on the bench. Like sitting and cheering. And warming up on the sidelines. Very important!

Anyway, if you’ve read this blog before, you may know that I’ve always coveted movie set food. I’ve had it once, and it was good, but this commercial set food was the best. There were omelets, waffles, fried potatoes, fruit, bagels and donuts:

After breakfast, we went to wardrobe. I got outfitted in my Brazilian jersey, shorts, socks, shin guards and cleats. Here are my “teammates” with their uniforms. As you can see, all of the players on Team Brazil were tan and had brown hair. We were definitely typecast.

Amazingly, we got to keep everything but the jerseys, so FREE CLEATS. These are my precious new Nike Mercurials, and really made me feel like I was playing barefoot. LOVE:

Also, there were 200 fans/extras who would be sitting in different parts of the bleachers decked out in red, white, and blue, some had face paint, some guys with their shirts off, flags, posters, the works:

After breakfast and wardrobe it was still only 9am, so we hit the field to start practicing all of our plays. We weren’t actually playing soccer, we were playing choreographed soccer- we were told exactly who does what when. She passes to her, her defender dives, she gets by her and shoots, etc. There was going to be an entrance scene, one breakaway save scene, one upper ninety save, and one corner kick save all featuring Hope Solo. We had to rehearse all of the plays so that we’d have it down before Hope got there at noon, since we only had her for six hours. We rehearsed for about three hours, and of course it was one of those heat wave days, so it got nice and sweaty. I didn’t have to rehearse any of the plays since I wasn’t a field player, but I was in the entrance scene that shows all of us in the background warming up as Hope is introduced and steps onto the field. Here’s Hope’s stand-in, Laura, rehearsing the entrance scene where she walks through a crowd of officials, trainers, coaches and important people, while the fans in the stadium scream and go crazy, and we warm up in the background.

After rehearsing for awhile, we had lunch, which was just as delicious as breakfast. Then Hope arrived, and she started filming the warm-up scene that we’d rehearsed. We did about 75 takes, literally, and not like when people say “literally” and don’t mean it, I mean it literally, without exaggeration, we did the same thing over and over and over for an hour and a half. Some people were playing 4v1, some people were passing and moving, and I was doing high knees and butt kicks with two other players. The scene didn’t actually make any sense at all, because why would both teams already be warming up when she’s just being announced? No. Everyone warms up first, then everyone gets announced and everyone lines up for the National anthem and then the game starts. But whatever. Here’s a photo of me in my uniform, or “kit” as it’s so common to say now that the World Cup just ended and everyone’s been using soccer, or should I say “football” terms, as if they’re European.

Unfortunately, that’s my last photo since my phone died mid-way through the day. Though it turns out we’re not allowed to post any photos of Hope anyway because… something about her contract. But I swear I met her and have photos with her! And she was really nice!

Moving on, after we finally, finally, finally did the entrance scene successfully (wrapped it?) and went on to start the next scene, it started to rain. We couldn’t shoot in the rain for continuity’s sake, so we had to go in and wait out the storm. We all walked inside the locker room, laid down on the cement floor, put our soccer bags under our heads, and went to sleep. We must have looked like puppies, all sleeping on top of each other. I think that might have been my favorite part of the day- crashing on the floor with 20 girls I’d met that day.

Long story short, it stopped raining, we went back out and shot the remaining scenes (each one took another 75 takes) and I did a lot of running up and down the sideline. High knees, butt kicks, karaoke, sprints, etc. Hope had to leave at 6pm on the dot to make her flight back to Atlanta, so her stand-in Laura had to dive and make saves in her place after she left, even though she’s not a keeper. Poor Laura. Then we went on filming until about 8pm when we wrapped the shoot, had dinner, packed up and got on the bus back to New York. We got back to Penn Station at 11:30 at night, so you know, just another 17 hour day filming a Nike commercial. As they say…

Every pullback, and you have every bear, just blaring how the world is going to collapse. El-Erian now says there is a 25% chance of deflation. Which means that there is a 100% chance that he is wrong!

Rosenberg assures us that we are on the road to Japan, on the road to the Great Depression II.

Roubini, the great Zero, assures us that we will have a double dip.

Isn't that Wall Street for you? Oh My!! Have your portfolio come in a few percentage points, and they're back to touting the end of the world.

Last night, I had this message on my phone--"Tell me, after today's action, how you can remain bullish. Just tell me."

Hah.

As though a day's action in the stock market will dictate what you are supposed to do? Is that investing? What about today? Whoops. Does that mean yesterday was just a do-over?

Give me a break.

Stocks are cheap--but wait--now we hear that no one will pay up for stocks, because the earnings are coming off of the back of the consumer. Labor is getting squeezed so profits can get juiced.

I guess no-one will pay up for stocks--unless you are Dell and HP fighting over 3Par!!

What will they say then, when the unemployed get jobs? Oh wait. That's right. No one will ever work again, and no one will ever find a job again.

So maybe all the workers are supposed to move to India or China or Vietnam, and get worker arbritaged?