England will be knocked out in quarter finals of World Cup by France

England will most likely lose to France in the World Cup quarter finals, a
statistician has calculated.

Dr Ian McHale has converted a well known mathematical model to predict which teams are most likely to progress through the competition.

The "ordered probit", used in business and medicine, shows that England has a six per cent chance of winning the tournament.

That means it will win its group stage, then beat Serbia in the second round before narrowly succumbing to the French in the quarters.

The model, similar to one believed to be used by bookmakers, does not just take into account the form sheet but also the luck of the draw.

It predicts that Holland are the favourites with almost 12 per cent chance of lifting the Cup narrowly ahead of Spain and Brazil.

Dr McHale, a sport statistician at the University of Salford, said: "England have an easy run up to the quarter final and then it is a very level match with the French. Unfortunately even if they win that they meet Brazil or Holland."

Dr McHale, whose work featured in the Institution of Engineering and Technology’s magazine, predicted the form of the teams by studying nearly 9,000 matches over the last eight years and comparing this with their Fifa world ranking.

He then played the form books through a million different scenarios using the statistical model which showed the most probable progression of each team.

The results follow closely the bookies although Holland jumps from fifth ranked to first ranked because of recent improvements in form. That makes them a good bet at the current 10-1 odds.

In the rankings England drop from fourth favourites to sixth under the system but France jump from eighth to fifth.

Portugal, which is officially third ranked team in the world, is ninth favourite because it has such a tough draw.

Dr McHale said that his model used only statistics and did not take into account any injuries or problems that might damage team chances.