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The battle for Iraq: If the battle for minds is lost - remember the Somali nightmare

Saddam Hussein is betting that his people will rally around his crack troops. The allies are betting they will betray the dictator and flush out his enforcers.

The odds at this point favour Saddam. Even those Iraqis eager to turn against the regime won’t dare move until they are sure one side has the upper hand.

If Saddam wins his bet, allied forces could face fighting reminiscent of the battle of Mogadishu in Somalia in 1993. There would be important differences, of course. The 150 Americans trapped in Mogadishu were cut off, without armour and dependent on a small number of helicopters for air support. Allied troops in Baghdad would number in the tens of thousands, with full armour, air support and back-up.

But no matter what kind of power can be rolled into Baghdad, if it faces a hostile population, as in Mogadishu, the scene could become a nightmare.