A Project of The Center for Climate and Security

Will climate change cause wars?

Will climate change be the primary cause of war between two nations? Not likely. Can the impacts of climate change increase the likelihood of conflict? Research increasingly suggests this is a possibility, and in some instances has already occurred. However, conflict is the result of a multitude of factors – existing grievances, mismanagement of resources, erosion of the social contract between a state and its public, demographic change, economic disparities, etc. So climate change will not likely be the only, or even primary cause of any conflict. Climate change can increase the likelihood of conflict and instability through interacting with other existing stressors – such as food, water and energy insecurity. These stresses can contribute to unrest, the displacement of populations, and other dynamics than can increase the likelihood of a conflict occurring. A lack of capacity to manage climate risks can also make a nation more fragile and conflict-prone. Though there is evidence suggesting that climate change has been a factor in certain sub-national conflicts, more research is needed to disentangle correlation and causality. However, given the unprecedented changes to the climate currently underway, the historical record is not a sufficient foundation for predicting the role that climate change might play in future conflicts. In this context, future simulations, foresight exercises, and a more nuanced understanding of the interconnections between demographic pressures, natural resources and state stability, will be increasingly important to governments and societies wishing to plan for the effects of climate change on the security environment.