It doesn't matter that Louis C.K. ("Louie") is a little-known underdog compared with Carell. Gervais beat Carell at the Emmys in 2008 when Carell was a red-hot film star slumming it on TV and obscure British comedian Gervais starred in the low-rated HBO series "Extras."

Curiously, there are a lot of parallels between Louis C.K. now and Gervais then. Both play quirky characters loosely based upon themselves in TV series that they write and direct. Gervais was nominated for best comedy writing when he won for lead actor; Louis C.K. is nominated for writing now.

Emmys are decided by a small pool of judges who view a sample episode. If Louis C.K. chooses well, he has a realistic shot of pulling off a Gervais-type upset.