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California reported its job numbers on Friday, and once again it
was not good news. Although total California employment in
January “rose” to 15.905 million people, this is only because
December was revised down from 15.945 million to 15.878 million
people. And November was revised downwards also. Thus, a full
three years after the peak of employment in California and the
ensuing jobs crash, total employment in the state has made no
recovery at all. Worse, these levels are lower by more than
250,000 from ten years ago. | see: California Employment in
Millions (seasonally adjusted) 2000-2011.

The mythology of an economic recovery in the United States faces
no lack of challenge, from the facts. However, that the country’s
largest state (and economy) remains in a fiscal emergency,
indebted to Washington for billions in unemployment costs, with
no jobs growth, should be a cautionary tale to those who insist a
national recovery is underway, or is sustainable. Moreover, that
food stamp growth rates in big the big counties of Los Angeles,
Riverside, and San Bernardino continue to advance is a sign that
a new problem is now appearing on the horizon: loss of purchasing
power in the face of rising food and energy costs. To boot: these
intractable, not-improving conditions were already in play in the
second half of 2010—before the spike in oil to even higher
levels.

California remains one of several US States that is extremely
sensitive to oil prices. While it’s true that the power sector
has made great gains in efficiency over 25 years, the state’s
over-exposure to roads and highways and under-exposure to public
transit means that costs skyrocket for both State and City
governments and middle to lower income groups when oil rises.
Commutes in California for workers, and total road maintenance
costs, are among the most onerous in the nation. Moreover,
California’s gasoline prices are always among the highest due to
its Pacific orientation (not linked to Gulf Coast oil imports and
refining), and these become embedded quickly into consumer
prices. Economists often acknowledge that recessions trigger more
easily when vulnerable systems are shocked. Can there be any
doubt what the 2011 oil spike will do to California?