Food Outlook No.4 - October 2002
p.5

The humanitarian crisis in southern Africa is deepening as
international response has so far seriously fallen short of needs.
Globally, 32 countries are presently facing food emergencies and
need food assistance.

Following two consecutive years of poor cereal harvests, the
food crisis in southern Africa is worsening due to
insufficient and slow food imports, both commercial and emergency
relief. Prices of cereals are rising throughout the sub-region
further curtailing access to food for large sections of the
population. A series of FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment
Missions to Lesotho, Malawi, Mozambique,
Swaziland, Zambia and Zimbabwe in April/May 2002
estimated the number of people in need of food aid at 12.8 million.
However, follow-up vulnerability assessments recently undertaken by
SADC, in collaboration with international agencies, have estimated
the number at 14.4 million, with the largest increases in Zimbabwe
and Zambia. Against a regional WFP emergency appeal for US$507.3
million to provide food assistance to 10.3 million most affected
people until the next harvest in April 2003, only 36 percent had
been pledged by early October. In Angola, the number of
people requiring food assistance in 2002/03, previously estimated
at 1.4 million, has increased to 1.9 million due to the massive
return of IDPs and refugees to their areas of origin, following the
end of the civil war. In eastern Africa, serious food
shortages have emerged in several parts of the sub-region. In
Eritrea, the outlook for the current agricultural season is
bleak due to poor rains. Already, an estimated one million people
are in need of emergency food assistance. In Ethiopia, a
large number of livestock deaths and unusual migrations in search
of water and pasture are reported. Over 5.8 million people are in
need of emergency food assistance until the end of 2002. In
Kenya, the “long rains” have been inadequate in
many districts, leading to a poor food outlook for 2002/03. In
Sudan, serious food supply difficulties are being experienced
in several parts due to erratic rains and population displacement
following recent escalation of conflict in the south. Some 3
million people depend on food assistance. In Somalia,
continuing insecurity and escalation of conflict in parts with
attendant population displacement are cause for serious concern. In
Uganda, erratic rains in parts and intensified population
displacements in the north pose serious food security problems. In
Tanzania, despite recent good harvests, food insecurity
persists in some regions. In western Africa, Sierra
Leone, Liberia and Guinea continue to require
food assistance due to past or ongoing civil strife. In
Mauritania, the food supply situation remains tight reflecting
poor harvests in 2001. In central Africa, a resurgence of
fighting in the Republic of Congo has caused renewed
population displacement and is affecting food production. In the
Democratic Republic of Congo the food supply situation
remains difficult due to persistent conflict and dry weather in
southern parts. In Burundi, the overall food supply
situation has improved with good 2002 food harvests but emergency
food assistance is still required for some 462 000 internally
displaced people.

In Asia, food shortages persist in Korea, DPR,
where WFP urgently requires additional food aid pledges of some
86 000 tonnes of cereals to continue its emergency operation
until the end of the year. A severe drought has hit
Mongolia, again this season affecting both livestock and cereal
production and increasing food aid needs above the current levels.
A large number of countries have been affected by tropical
depressions, typhoons and an erratic 2002 monsoon, resulting in
severe floods and landslides in some areas and drought in others.
Extensive damage has been caused to housing and infrastructure,
while millions of people have been displaced. Massive relief
operations are underway by government agencies and international
aid organizations.

In the NearEast, favourable weather conditions in
most countries have boosted domestic food production. In
Afghanistan, however, despite the recovery in agricultural
production, years of civil strife and a succession of severe
droughts have left millions of people vulnerable to food
insecurity. The massive return of refugees and funding shortfalls
for humanitarian assistance are exerting extreme strain on
available resources. The food situation in the West Bank and Gaza
Strip is grave due to continuing confinement of families in homes
by curfews and military operations. In Iraq, despite
improved growing conditions, shortages of inputs continue to
constrain crop and livestock production. Food supply in some
countries of the Asian CIS is tight and emergency food
assistance may be required in Tajikistan and Georgia.
Hot and dry weather conditions, below average precipitation and low
levels of water flows in the main rivers have adversely affected
food production in these countries. Tajikistan, in addition, has
recently experienced a locust invasion, torrential rains and
floods, which have destroyed large areas of crops.

In Central America and the Caribbean, the tight food
supply situation in parts of El Salvador, Guatemala
and Nicaragua has been aggravated by increasing unemployment
due to the crisis in the coffee sector. In Europe targeted
food assistance continues to be necessary for refugees, the
internally displaced and vulnerable populations in the Federal
Republic of Yugoslavia and in Chechnya in the Russian
Federation.

1. This updates information published in the September
2002 issue of Foodcrops and Shortages. Countries facing exceptional
food emergencies are underlined.