This picture received from North Korea's official Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) on December 12, 2012 shows the rocket Unha-3, carrying the satellite Kwangmyongsong-3, being monitored on a large screen at a satellite control center in North Korea.

North Korea likely engaged in a deliberate campaign of deception before a December 12 long-range missile launch, catching the United States and its Asian allies "off guard," according to a U.S. official with direct knowledge of analysis of the incident conducted by U.S. military and intelligence agencies.

The official told CNN that American and Japanese military ships and missile defenses were fully operational and protecting land, sea and airspace on December 12, but that the launch was a surprise when it actually happened.

"We had our dukes up, operationally, but we were caught off guard," the official said.

"The clues point to a concerted effort to deceive us," the official said. The analysis was ordered in the wake of the launch to determine what exactly happened and how much the U.S. intelligence knew at the time.
The official said one conclusion was that while missile defenses can fully protect against a North Korean attack, the North Koreans have shown they can counter U.S. measures to gather intelligence about what they are up to.

"Look, they know when our satellites are passing overhead," the official said. It's believed the North Koreans essentially manipulated the launch so U.S. intelligence satellites simply would not be overhead and able to see what was happening.

The most likely scenario, the official said, was that North Korea wasn't telling the truth when it announced several days before the launch that there were technical problems with the missile.

According to the official, the intelligence analysis found that:

- The United States observed the North Koreans beginning to take apart the three-stage rocket and move parts of it away from the launch pad, then observed what were believed to be so-called replacement parts being moved in.

- In retrospect, those parts appear to have been from a second, older-generation long-range missile that were in storage. Those parts most likely were never used in the December 12 launch.

During this time, when the United States did not have total visibility of the launch site, it's believed the North Koreans either quickly reassembled the original rocket and fired it.

- It's also possible the U.S. miscalculated and the North Koreans never took it apart at all.

Earlier this week, South Korean defense officials warned that the latest North Korean missile had the capability to travel more than 6,000 miles, meaning this type of rocket could strike the United States. However, experts do not believe Pyongyang has a nuclear warhead small enough to fly on the kind of missile.

North Korean officials claimed that the rocket launch succeeded in putting a satellite in orbit.

Unless the U.S. government is pretending to be caught off guard. We probably listened to the North Korean telephone and radio traffic, read the encrypted North Korean dispatches, and watched the entire launch in real time with whatever technology is two steps beyond UAVs, plus the North Korean's own live feeds. I'd bet we had a better view and real-time telemetry than anyone in North Korea. But as long as we pretend we were caught off guard, the North Koreans won't update their security.

Heck why stop the fantasizing there? We should have taken over the in-flight missile guidance and flown it into the path of one our interceptors for a spectacular display of exploding fragments we could capture on video. Oh yeah, that's right, we can't show them our hand just yet...

That would be an act of war! But, aside from the electronic monitoring of launch telemetry, the recovery of the launch vehicle 1st and 2nd stages and the inspection of these rockets down to the hand made welds, what other capabilities did the West lack?

December 28, 2012 at 6:54 pm |

Nelly, PhD.

No, you are wrong. You were caught off-guard. The "Koreans" are stronger, and more powerful than USA. The Koreans use South Korean businesses (hyundai, kia, samsung, satellites, ssangyong, ...) for spying. No illusion, the US needs to do more than dreaming about power.

To all the anti-American haters using their 1st Amendment right–paid for by lots of American blood, BTW–to bash this country, I say this: emigrate to North Korea if you think this country is so terrible.

I think you mean to say American haters. I am an anti-American hater; I hate people that are anti-American. Or did you intend to say that just to see who would respond to such horrible use of the English language? If so, Bravo sir, I have fallen for your trap.

IIn order to do that, it would have to be in Geostationary orbit, and those orbit so high/far away (22,236 mi) it would be useless as a spy satellite. A drone or even a U2 might have better luck, but could be vulnerable to anti-air, and might be seen as breaking the truce...

You are right we should leave these people alone and let them starve since we are the only reason that they are eating anything right now. Just in case you people didn't know they have created a cult population up there that believes that them eating tree bark and grass they are way better off then the rest of the world.

And how is that our concern? South Korea has one of the largest economies in the world. They should be able to protect themselves from a sub-3rd world country. We've been there 60 years. Time to take our troops and go.

December 28, 2012 at 5:34 pm |

FIip

As if the U.S. does not care about China.

December 30, 2012 at 8:36 pm |

andy

Oh yeah genius, let's leave them alone so they starve. WE are the ones feeding them derpmeister.

Hmmm, Iran wants wipe Israel off the map, let alone that the Holocaos never happened. That was said by the elected leader of Iran, and supported by the ruling religion, North Korea says some outlandish things that makes me say think that they shouldn't be allowed to touch weapons.

Iran wants wipe off Israel off the map and they deny the Holocaust happened.

December 28, 2012 at 3:53 pm |

usmcdog1971

Iran wants to wipe off Israel off the map and they deny the Holocaust happened.

December 28, 2012 at 3:54 pm |

Counter idiots

That is because we use the missles as a deterrent against other countries with missles. Iran has said that if they do get nuclear weapons that they will give them to Hezbollah and other terrorist organizations that will use them. Do you not think with NK shelling SK islands and sinking their ships that they won't actually try to use a nuclear weapon against them? If you do then you really are as ignorant as the message you posted.

How dare those fools deceive the shining beacon of light that provides justice to the world known as america. This made me very upset knowing how honest american politicians are, and how genuinely concerned they are with the well being of other peoples and nations. How dare they lie to america? THIS IS AN OUTRAGE !!! In response lets invade another country in another part of the world and SET THEM FREE of their oil and natural resources errr i mean terrorists yea!!

The NK's will make sure and warn us when they launch their ICBM attack beforehand so we're ready to shoot it down. Then again maybe WE are pretending to be clueless and knew every move all along to lull them into a false sense of security.

Oh yes, absolutely. In addition to running the country or our embassies, the President and S.O.S. also have to man every U.S. satellite 24×7 and analyze every cam-shot. So if this was missed, it must've been *their* fault. (smh)

Maybe they could take lessons from GWB who was clearly not at fault when a bunch of Saudis completed enough flying lessons to take-off, but never did pass that "landing" test.

So what you are saying is that the President should not be up to date with what is going on around the world. You do realize he has a TON of czars to keep him informed on this. SO YES HE SHOULD KNOW ABOUT IT. and Yes he did FAIL.

You do realize if Clinton had taken action when he was told that Osama was a viable threat the towers would not have come down. But he was too busy making it so banks could get insurance on their loans. Hmmm, what is a major reason our economy is being crippled?

And of course YOU realize that Clinton specifically told GWB to keep an eye on this "Osama Bin Laden" guy over here, and that went completely ignored? Remember, Bush 41 was ARMING bin Laden for war against Hussein in his administration – he didn't view him as a serious threat to US interests until much later on. I'd say Clinton did his duty as much as he could have in those days, abd GWB dropped a much bigger ball.

The whole idea of FISA is flawed. Everyone knows the US government is spying on ALL Muslims, no exceptions. Whether FISA is there or not, they've been doing it and will continue to do so. Why it's ineffective, Muslims know what I wrote in the second sentence. They know they're being watched, and the US will watch them no matter how many times they say (even after) they've abrogated FISA and want to be friends to win Muslim "hearts and minds". The way George H.W. (did he kick the bucket yet?); George W., Rumsfeld, Schwartzkopf (he did, I heard); Rice; Cheney, etc., giggled when Iraqis/Muslims died shows their real intent. You cannot win the heart and mind of a person whose kids you've just killed!

The US doesn't care if NK bows or not. Everyone knows that NK is NO threat to the US. The government wants you to believe it is, and is pretending to be concerned about it. The US/West/Israel want to give you the FALSE impression that they're not anti-Muslim bigots by going after a non-Muslim country as well. Even Muslim countries are NO threat to the US, only slight threats to Israel. So the entire foreign policy of the US is shaped by Israel for its own purposes using hard-working American tax dollars. The US has become a servant of Israel, like it or not; believe it or not.

As is typical of someone of your mentality, you and a bunch of others around here can't even comprehend a story written for the average American 5th grader. The analysis wasn't that they hid anything from our satellites, but that they manipulated the launch site at exactly the right times to be seen best by our satellites. A deception like that must be seen and not hidden. Get it? ? ?

Our adversaries like nothing better than jerking our chain to get us to invest billions into more and better technology they can eventually defeat too. Why bother nuking us when they can turn us into a bankrupt disintegrated wasteland.

Let's review. The last time they deceived the US was when Bill Clinton was in charge. Is it mere coincidence that Hillary Rodham (or is it Hillary Rodham Clinton, or Hillary Clinton?) is the Secretary of State when this occurs, again?

The so-called experts in the U.S. who do analysis have always been a day late and a dollar short. Second graders could do a better job. No doubt these "experts" will be "shocked" when Iran detonates their first nuclear device. For the rest of us, it isn't even news.

So if you put this story in the DOD B.S. Translator, here is what it says:

North Korea, we hope you believe this story that our old antiquated satellites do not have complete coverage of your activities.. But do not pay attention to those new bright and shiny satellites we have up there, they are there just to track the movement of lost animals in the U.S.. So golly gee, you caught us offguard.. please believe that.. .because it wasn't like if that missile strayed 1 iota from its intended trajectory that we would have shot it down.. because we don't have that ability anyway.. Hugs and Kisses,

As is typical of someone of your mentality, you and a bunch of others around here can't even comprehend a story written for the average American 5th grader. The analysis wasn't that they hid anything from our satellites, but that they manipulated the launch site at exactly the right times to be seen best by our satellites. A deception like that must be seen and not hidden. Get it? ? ?

Fortunately, the North Koreans only lie about things like launching peaceful satellites into space. If they ever get an actual missile with a nuclear warhead, I'm sure they'll tell us exactly when and at what target they will launch it. Based on our experience so far with missile defense, if they do this we have about a 50 percent chance of stopping it. That's what makes our missile defense system so great.

Talk about dumb! How did you get that I thought that the armed forces changed with every administration????? I'll explain what I said in easier terms for you: Our leaders or so 'Stupid' that they can be deceived easily!!!! Never mentioned our armed forces!!!!

December 28, 2012 at 3:49 pm |

Whombatt

What?? A sworn enemy of most of the free world did not tell the truth about its impending missile launch? For shame! Whatever is this world coming to?

As far as any real threat (or maybe even imaginary ones), NK is about as important to the security of the United States as a bump on a pickle. NK's only real use is to be used by the fear-mongers in jacking more money for our military-industrial complex and to help the Pentagon justify our continued presence on the Korean Peninsula.

As others have mentioned, cut off ALL aid to this rogue nation and if its inhabitants all die of starvation and disease then its leaders will have no powder left in the horn nor pellets left in the pouch.

The only alternative is to launch a preemptive invasion of North Korea, crush the military, kill all the political leaders and then occupy the place for the next 20 years. Does not that scenario sound a bit familiar?

It's nice to see that the technology that the Chinese stole from us and passed on the the north koreans works so well. It's also nice to see that they are so well off that we don't need to send them food aid anymore.

Exactly! And you have nobody more to thank than UCLA.. Did you know that UCLA has barred any Californian's from entering the school, because they have to do so at a discount in state tuition, so they just barred them in favor of Asian's who they charge a kings ransom to attend. Then these Asian's major in Engineering or biological sciences, get educated and go back to their country and use what they learned against the United States. UCLA just officially changed its name:

I agree with Steve, America should not be concern with north korea. This north korea is of no consequence to us. Why do we provide assistance (food and medication) to these people when they wish us nothing good but destruction? These assistance is only redirected to the military, I know this and the UN and various assisting government is also aware of this fact. Stop all assistance to north korea. Has anyone noticed that the ruling party are all fat?

Its that "one" you need to worry about, the all iconic "shot heard around the world". It just takes one to set a stage of unprecedented violence and carnage, leading to mass extinction of lives in a rapid movement known as nuclear holocaust

As an American I am never and would never be concerned about North Korea. Some countries do this and do that but if Korea goes over the line where it thinks or it tries to attack America we will take care of Business, if Korea scares you folks then you are "Weak" thanks for reading

well, let's hope your spelling is as good as this post was all the time. It's a free country.......all comments should be heard (but never criticized for spelling)......criticize him now--but in a few years he will be the new standard for American thinking and guidance for the government.

December 30, 2012 at 1:16 pm |

dennis

like Vietnam, Iraq and Afghanistan, you play to many phony video games!

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