Thursday, September 29, 2016

President Obama just had his first veto override of his entire presidency today, as the Senate and House both voted to override his veto of the 9/11 victims bill, Justice Against Sponsors of Terrorism Act (JASTA). As of this moment, the Sept 11 bill is now law.

Intense lobbying by both the Obama Administration and the Saudi government didn’t amount to much in the end, with strong public support leading to a 97-1 veto override vote today. The long defector from the unanimous vote back in May was Sen. Harry Reid (D – NV). The House easily cleared the two-thirds threshold with a 348-77 vote.

Wednesday, September 28, 2016

BY JARED DILLIAN : People are seriously undereducated on the benefits of being in cash.

The cool thing about cash is that it doesn’t go down. You can’t lose money if you have cash—unless it gets stolen or your bank account gets hacked. We don't have negative rates in the US yet, so you can’t complain about that. If you have money in cash, you will earn zero.

Wednesday, September 28, 2016

The benchmark S&P 500 gyrated at open, showed indecision during the first 90 minutes of trading and then rose to its 0.70% intraday high in the early afternoon. It then traded in a narrow range and closed with a slightly trimmed gain of 0.64%, reclaiming a bit over half the pre-debate selloff following last week's "no rate hike" rally. The yield on the 10-year note closed at 1.56%, down three basis points from the previous close. Here is a snapshot of past five sessions in the S&P 500.

Tuesday, September 27, 2016

The global securities market got a surprise recently when U.S. core consumer price inflation crept up to 2.3% year over year in the month of August. This closely followed core measure, which strips out the more volatile food and energy costs, increased 0.3%; this was the biggest rise in core CPI since February.

Tuesday, September 27, 2016

When it comes to spotting danger periods for recessions, and especially major crashes, the Boom/Bust Cycle lets us see when stock crashes and recessions are most likely to occur. As my fourth key macroeconomic cycle, this makes it the most important one I have innovated since the Generational Spending Wave in 1988.

Tuesday, September 27, 2016

Joy Mesh writes: The analysis for markets and various inter connected price action which will allow our clients to be better placed. Major markets around the globe sold off yesterday. The source of the anxiety may have been the presidential debate. S&P 500 plunged at the open and, after a puny bounce, sold off to a narrow mid-afternoon trading range. The yield on the 10-year note closed at 1.59%, down three basis points from the previous close. Here is a snapshot of past five sessions in the S&P 500.

Tuesday, September 27, 2016

We are forecasting a drop in the commodities complex over the next few months with the possibility of some important lows at the start of next year. WTI now appears to be forming a top, it would appear as though the dead cat bounce that has lasted throughout this year is running out of steam and we should see the push for lower lows over the next couple of months.

Tuesday, September 27, 2016

Angela Merkel, the leader of the financial world in Germany, told Deutsche Bank that they're on their own should things spiral out of control for them. The bank has been having trouble and when someone has trouble the world expects the usual reply, which is have no worries, we'll do whatever it takes to protect you. This time Merkel said you're on you're own.

Monday, September 26, 2016

Since May 2007 Deutsche Bank’s share has dropped from 175 US Dollars to 12 US Dollars (approx.) as we speak. Suddenly “the wires” are going viral with updates on the catastrophic state of the bank’s balance sheet. Here is what Kenny Polcari, of Morning Thought Blog” had to say today:

Deutsche Bank is leading the banks and banking indexes lower - as they dropped to a record low amid concerns that mounting legal bills associated with the sub-prime mortgage crisis, commodity (precious metals) trading and large money transfers out of Russia are all complicating the drama and may force the German lender to raise capital. The stock fell by 7% - bringing ytd losses to 53%.

Monday, September 26, 2016

Short-term support is now broken and the Cycle Bottom support at Head & Shoulders neckline are likely to be in play. SPX is on a confirmed sell signal. Today’s action may match that of September 9. Be on the lookout for a break of the neckline near 2130.00.

Monday, September 26, 2016

The SPX Premarket is challenging its Short-term support at 2156.02 and may open beneath it after closing beneath its 50-day Moving Average on Friday.

ZeroHedge reports, “While today's biggest event for both markets and politics will be tonight's highly anticipated first presidential debate between Trump and Hillary, markets are waking up to some early turmoil in both Asia and Europe, with declines in banks and energy producers dragging down stock-markets around the world, pushing investors to once again seek the safety of government bonds (and yes, flattening the JGB curve even more much to the chagrin of the BOJ) and the yen.”

Monday, September 26, 2016

The week started at SPX 2139. The market rallied, after a gap up opening, to SPX 2154 on Monday. Then after the opening gap was closed on Monday the market finished unchanged. This sequence continued on Tuesday: gap up opening- close gap. On Wednesday another gap up opening-close gap sequence occurred, but during the FOMC statement/press conference the market rallied. The rallied continued to SPX 2180 on Thursday after another gap up opening, then pulled back to 2164 on Friday. For the week the SPX/DOW gained 1.4%, and the NDX/NAZ gained 1.4%. Economic reports for the week were sparse and mostly negative. On the downtick: housing starts, building permits, existing home sales, leading indicators and the Q3 GDP estimate. On the uptick: the NAHB, FHFA and weekly jobless claims improved. Next week’s reports will be highlighted by Q2 GDP, the PCE and the Chicago PMI. Best to your week!

Saturday, September 24, 2016

As widely expected, the Fed left interest rates unchanged at the September 21, 2016 FOMC meeting. The Fed felt things were balanced, and was looking for a pick up into the fourth quarter of 2016. The Fed also left open the possibility of a rate hike at the December FOMC. There were three Fed dissenters, the highest number since 2014. The BOJ also made an announcement to maintain its QE programs and do some switching of long maturities for short maturities (the BOJ’s version of Operation Twist?).

Saturday, September 24, 2016

70 RSI is as 70 RSI does. Sure, you can go well above. I understand that, but yesterday most of the key index charts hit 70 RSI on the short-term, sixty-minute charts. Normally you pull back from there and today was no different. The market gapped down a little bit and spent the day below the flat line. Nothing dramatic, but it did succeed in allowing the overbought oscillators to begin and unwinding process, which, of course, many will question as to whether we've seen the ultimate top. Probably not, but you never know. Markets sell when they get too overbought to allow for more energy on the next attempted move higher. This seems to be no different.

Saturday, September 24, 2016

The cycle since 2009 has been different from other market cycles, throughout history, in only one significant manner. That having been said, it is the Global Central Banks that have intentionally pushed interest rates to zero and below. This encouraged investors to speculate in the equity markets which have now become ‘dangerously overvalued, overbought, as well as ‘over bullish’ extremes according to all measures. In my opinion, this has “deferred” and not eliminated the disruptive unwinding of this “speculative” episode.

Friday, September 23, 2016

The latest myth being promoted in economic circles is that median income growth exploded higher last year. The people promoting this myth obviously didn’t bother reading the actual report and don’t understand what the word “median” means.

A big hat tip goes to John Williams who actually DID read the report and found that the Census has adjusted its methodology to include what interest income WOULD be if rates were not at zero.

Friday, September 23, 2016

As we’re still readjusting to life in a small Argentine pueblo miles from anywhere, I’ve asked Stephen McBride, my associate and now neighbor (he just moved here), to take the reins for the bulk of this week’s assemblage of news, analysis, and wry commentary about the never-boring antics of the human ape.

You may recall Stephen’s wonderful exposé on George Soros, an article that continues to bounce around the Internet doing good service by alerting people to Soros’s nefarious deeds.

The Market Oracle is a FREE Financial Markets Forecasting & Analysis web-site.(c) 2005-2018 MarketOracle.co.uk (Market Oracle Ltd) - Market Oracle Ltd asserts copyright on all articles authored by our editorial team and all comments posted. Any and all information provided within the web-site, is for general information purposes only and Market Oracle Ltd do not warrant the accuracy, timeliness or suitability of any information provided on this site. nor is or shall be deemed to constitute, financial or any other advice or recommendation by us. and are also not meant to be investment advice or solicitation or recommendation to establish market positions. We do not give investment advice and our comments are an expression of opinion only and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as recommendations to enter into a market position either stock, option, futures contract, bonds, commodity or any other financial instrument at any time. We recommend that independent professional advice is obtained before you make any investment or trading decisions. By using this site you agree to this sites Terms of Use.
From time to time we promote or endorse certain products / services that we believe are worthy of your time and attention. In return for that endorsement and only in the cases where you purchase directly though us may we be compensated by the producers of those products.