The Constitutional Convention of 1787 was held in strict secrecy. Consequently, anxious citizens gathered outside Independence Hall when the proceedings ended in order to learn what had been produced behind closed doors. The answer was provided immediately. A Mrs. Powel of Philadelphia asked Benjamin Franklin, "Well, Doctor, what have we got, a republic or a monarchy?" With no hesitation whatsoever, Franklin responded, "A republic, if you can keep it." ~ BENJAMIN FRANKLIN 1787

Sunday, July 31, 2011

GOVERNMENT STATISTICS ... REALLY ... APRIL, MAY, JUNE ECONOMIC GROWTH 1.9% ... HUH ... REVISED TO 0.4% ... DUH! WHY SUCH A LARGE REVISION? SOMEONE'S CALCULATOR BATTERY DIED? WHO DO YOU BELIEVE ... WHAT WILL THE FULL YEAR LOOK LIKE? CARE TO GUESS? WHO'S YOUR DADDY?

THE AMERICAN PUBLIC

TWO NUMBERS THAT WILL DEFINE THE 2012 ELECTION CYCLE WILL BE GDP & UNEMPLOYMENT. THE U.S. IS NOW IN UNCHARTED TERRITORY ... WHERE'S LEWIS & CLARK WHEN YOU NEED THEM.

JOBS NEEDED BY 2020 ~ OVER THE NEXT 10 YEARS ... 20 MILLION OVER THE NEXT 10 YEARS! WE MUST CONSIDER A GROWING POPULATION AND THE BABY BOOMERS AND ABOUT TO RETIRE HANGING ON LONGER. NO GOVERNMENT STATISTICAL OFFICE IS TRUSTED. NOW WHAT?

CHASING THE AMERICAN DREAM ... FOLLOW THE ILLEGAL ALIENS ...
GO SOUTH YOUNG MAN, GO SOUTH IN SEARCH OF THE AMERICAN DREAM ... MEXICO UNEMPLOYMENT RATE 4.5%, U.S. UNEMPLOYMENT RATE 9.2%! THE REAL RUB: WHITE UNEMPLOYMENT IS 8.1%, WHILE BLACK UNEMPLOYMENT IS 16.2% ... WHO'S YOUR DADDY?

EVERY ELECTION IS ABOUT CHANGE OR MORE OF THE SAME! ... SO LET'S FOCUS ON 2012, DOES THE 'HOPE & CHANGE' MESSAGE HAVE LEGS OR IS IT MORE OF THE SAME?

Friday, July 29, 2011

The Democrat-led US Senate has voted to set aside a House of Representatives-passed Republican bill to avert a potentially ruinous debt default, setting the stage for weekend talks on forging a compromise plan.

Lawmakers voted 59-41 against Republican House Speaker John Boehner's measure to raise the US debt ceiling in two stages to enable Washington to pay its bills past an August 2 deadline.

Democratic Senate majority leader Harry Reid said he hoped Senate Republican minority leader Mitch McConnell would help work out a final deal, the outlines of which were far from clear with the clock ticking down.

The US economy hit its $US14.3 trillion debt ceiling on May 16 and has used spending and accounting adjustments, as well as higher-than-expected tax receipts, to continue operating normally - but can only do so until Tuesday.

Business and finance leaders have warned a default would send crippling aftershocks through a fragile US economy still wrestling with stubbornly high unemployment in the wake of the 2008 global meltdown.Twenty-two House Republicans joined all 188 Democrats voting in opposing Mr Boehner's legislation, while 218 Republicans backed it - eking out the 216 votes needed for passage in the lower chamber.

A key sticking point was the duration of any debt limit increase.

Mr Reid and his Senate allies rejected the Boehner plan in large part because it would set the stage for another high-stakes showdown in a few months.

"We cannot be in this battle all the time," said Mr Reid, whose own plan would spare president Barack Obama another politically-fraught debt battle as he seeks a second term in the November 2012 elections.

Mr Reid's plan originally envisioned raising the US debt limit in one step by $2.7 trillion, enough to cover the nation's borrowing needs through the November 2012 elections.

The new version would essentially allow Mr Obama to raise the debt ceiling in three steps.

Through a complex legislative process, Congress could approve these debt ceiling hikes with just a one-third vote in each chamber.

Mr Boehner's bill had sought to pair raising the debt ceiling by $900 billion, with spending cuts of some $917 billion over 10 years, while requiring later debt limit increases be tied to congressional passage of a balanced budget amendment to the US Constitution for ratification by the 50 states.

Mr Reid, whose Democrats oppose tying the debt limit to such amendment, has offered a blueprint that would raise the debt ceiling by $2.7 trillion while cutting spending by some $2.2 trillion over 10 years.

'Almost out of time'

In a grim warning of what may come if there is no breakthrough by Tuesday's deadline, US markets tumbled for a fifth straight day - a month of gains wiped out in a week of losses due to poor US growth and the political stalemate.

Mr Obama called the Republican bill a waste of time, but stressed the parties were not that far apart on spending cuts.

He insisted both sides were "in rough agreement" on how much spending can be cut "responsibly," and on the steps to take in the coming months on tax reforms as well as some kind of enforcement mechanism.

"We need to reach a compromise by Tuesday so that our country will have the ability to pay its bills on time, as we always have," Mr Obama said in an appeal for Republicans and Democrats to carve out a deal.

"The power to solve this is in our hands. There are plenty of ways out of this mess, but we are almost out of time."

(1) House Republicans are walking into an enormous trap. The Boehner plan is sufficiently similar to the Reid plan, in virtually all important respects, that its passage will lead to the following compromise: The adoption of Boehner’s ten years of sham cuts,which will be ephemeral beyond fiscal year 2012. Even John McCain said tonight that Gramm-Rudman (whose “sequestration” provisions are the enforcement mechanism for Boehner) became worthless because Congress just started declaring emergencies.A commission which will report out large tax increases which cannot be filibustered. The “deciders” on the commission will be six Pelosi/Reid people and one squish Republican, who will be corralled into submission by:A “trigger” which will make the pressure currently being applied to Congress seem small by comparison.

(2) Unless you can guarantee that it will go to the states, a guarantee of a losing vote on the balanced budget amendment is worthless.

(3) Dick Morris is correct that if Tuesday comes and goes, with only a shut-down of unessential government agencies, the American people will see Obama’s fear-mongering for what it is.

(4) Furthermore, as 2008 taught us, the GOP can sell all of its principles and spend the better part of a trillion dollars and the stock market will still continue to fall –- particularly since Standard & Poor’s is about to downgrade the U.S. for being too timid in debt reduction.

(5) Finally, Obama is currently reeling from his poor stewardship. For Republicans to capitulate and give him a “compromise” will reset him on a glide path to reelection. The liberal media is currently “spinning” that Republicans have won, but, after they lose, their surrender will be reported for what it was.

THIS IS JUST ONE ISSUE ... OF THE TAIL WAGGING THE DOG OR CONGRESS IN HEAT! THERE ARE FAR TO MANY, MANY MOVING PARTS TO POLITICAL LEGISLATION (EAR MARKS AKA TAKING THE MEAT OFF THE BONE). PERHAPS THE EASIEST WAY TO REDUCE THE NUMBER OF MOVING PARTS AND DEAL WITH LEGISLATION IS TO STICK TO FOUNDING PRINCIPLES THAT MAYBE WERE NOT PERFECT ... BUT WERE THE RESULT OF VIGOROUS DEBATE THAT ARE THE FOUNDATION OF OUR COUNTRY REGARDLESS OF ETHNICITY, RELIGION, WEALTH, OR OTHER FACTORS OF SOCIAL STATUS. http://www.ncpssm.org/entitledtoknow/?p=1822A bill was introduced into the 110th Congress, 2007 - 2008 to require the establishment of a Consumer Price Index for Elderly Consumers to compute cost-of-living increases for Social Security benefits under title II of the Social Security Act.

Adjusting cost-of-living increases to Social Security benefits using a CPI that reflects the spending habits of the elderly would prevent a decline in the purchasing power of retirees' benefits and protect against skyrocketing healthcare costs. In 2004, the Consumer Price Index for Elderly Consumers Act (H.R. 1953) was introduced and re-introduced, which:

More accurately reflects the inflation rate of consumer spending among seniors, younger workers have far different spending habits;

Presently, yearly cost-of-living increases to Social Security benefits are based on a consumer price index that tracks the spending habits of young, urban workers, which is the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W).

Seniors must use a far greater percentage of their income on health care and prescription drugs, both of which have seen enormous price rate increases.

All sponsors of the bill were democrats from the following states: HI, GA, NV, OK, VA, PA, TN, MN, TN, TX, AZ, IL, OH, MA, NJ, FL. The population of those over 65 is a shade over 40 million people.

The proportion elderly varies among the 50 States and the District of Columbia.

In 1993, the most populous States were also the ones with the largest number of elderly. Nine States had more than 1 million elderly: California, Florida, New York, Pennsylvania, Texas, Illinois, Ohio, Michigan, and New Jersey. In general, the States with a large number of elderly differ from those States with a high proportion of their population in the elderly ages (Florida and Pennsylvania are exceptions). For example, while California easily has the largest number of elderly persons (3 million), its proportion elderly (11 percent) ranks 46th among the 50 States and the District of Columbia.

Of all the States, Florida had by far the highest proportion elderly, almost 19 percent. Other States with high proportions elderly (14 to 16 percent), ranked in descending order, were Pennsylvania, Iowa, Rhode Island, West Virginia, Arkansas, North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, Missouri, Connecticut, Kansas, and Massachusetts.

For Further Information

See: Current Population Reports, Series P23-190,Sixty-Five Plus in the U.S., forthcoming.

An excellent tool to explore the aging of America as well as a wealth of other demographics is available at the:

With the deadline for reaching a deal fast approaching, the fear is that the US will run out of money.

What is the debt ceiling?

The US government faces a legal limit on the total amount of debts it can run up in order to pay its bills - including military salaries, interest on existing loans, and Medicare. The current limit is $14.3 trillion (£8.9tn).

The cap was reached in May. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner was able to extend the expected day of reckoning to 2 August, by various tricks such as postponing payments into government pension schemes, and thanks to better-than-expected tax revenues.

Republicans, and some analysts, say that even after 2 August, the government has some leeway to continue meeting payments at least for a few more days.

Why can't the Obama administration borrow more?

Because it is not in their power. All government borrowing has to be approved, under the US Constitution, by Congress.

An overall borrowing cap was first introduced by Congress in 1917 to make it simpler for the government to finance its efforts in World War I.

Since then the ceiling has been raised dozens of times, and it is usually a formality.

This puts the Obama administration in the impossible position of being required to spend more than it earns, while also being prevented from borrowing the difference.

What is the problem this time round?

The financial crisis and the US's fragile economic condition have caused government spending to soar, while tax revenues have suffered.

This has caused a big rise in the government's deficit - its rate of borrowing.

The Republicans, who control the House of Representatives, say they want to bring the deficit back under control, and have threatened not to raise the debt ceiling unless a deal is reached.

How far apart are the two sides?

Both sides accept that cutting the deficit is vital. In recent weeks several plans have been floated by one side or another and been batted down.

The most recent proposals include:

A plan from Senate Democrats that would raise the debt ceiling by $2.4tn and cut the budget deficit by $2.7bn while protecting social programmes for the elderly and the poor that are popular among Democrats. In a concession to Republican demands, this plan would not raise new tax revenue.

A two-step plan pushed by the House Republican leadership - but not necessarily with the backing of the rank-and-file caucus - that would trim government spending by $1.2tn, including cuts to those programmes, but would only extend the government's borrowing authority for about six months.

The chief sticking points have been Republicans' resistance to tax rises and calls for much bigger spending cuts than the Democrats favour, and Democrats' desire to shield healthcare programmes for the poor and elderly and the Social Security pension programme from cuts.

Finally, a number of House Republicans - mainly newly elected staunch Tea Party fiscal conservatives - oppose raising the debt limit in any form

What happens if no deal is reached by 2 August?

The US could be in default, something Tim Geithner has said would be "catastrophic", and President Obama has warned could tip America back into recession.

Economists say President Obama's options could include:

Stopping payments across the board, including debt repayments. This would be a disastrous outcome for financial markets.

Prioritising some payments (particularly interest payments), at least until money completely runs out. Some $49bn of social security payments due on 3 August could in theory be delayed. But these payments are computer-automated and may be technically impossible to stop. Moreover, stopping them would hurt core Democrat voters. And it is not even clear the government has the legal right to prioritise payments like this anyway.

Ignoring the debt ceiling and continuing borrowing. Some have argued that the US Constitution gives the president authority to do this. It would certainly spark a constitutional crisis, and possibly impeachment proceedings.

What do academics believe will happen if the US defaults?

Interest rates on credit cards, car loans and home mortgages could rise sharply, says George Washington University Professor Julius Hobson.

He adds that global financial institutions around the world holding AAA-rated US Treasury notes and bonds would see the value drop.

He also says cheques could be delayed to social security beneficiaries.

Surely the US would not default on its debts?

So far that has been everyone's assumption.

The US has not seen any significant increase in its borrowing cost, in the way that Greece and other indebted eurozone governments have.

The rating agencies are somewhat less relaxed. On 15 July, Standard & Poor's warned it could cut the US's coveted AAA credit rating if no deal is done, which could limit some investors' ability to lend to the US government.

Moreover, some analysts point out that a surprisingly large amount of existing debt comes up for repayment in 2011 - some $1.7tn, or 12% of its total debt.

They fear that investors could panic and refuse to relend the money, forcing a default.

Is there a compromise to be agreed?

Republicans have proposed raising the debt ceiling by enough to fund the government for another six to eight months, to allow more time for negotiations.

Mr Geithner opposes this extension, which would set the new deadline in the run-up to the 2012 presidential elections.

Other Democrats have backed a longer extension.

It could be brinkmanship, but both parties agree that talks on a new ceiling cannot go on indefinitely.

FIGURE/GROUND ... WITHOUT THE FIGURE WHERE'S THE GROUND IS NOT A RELATIONSHIP ... ITS A ILLUSION.

THE DEMOCRATIC HOUSE AND SENATE DID NOT PERFORM THEIR CONSTITUTIONAL DUTY OF CREATING A BUDGET FOR THE LAST TWO YEARS. WHY? THE CONTROL OF LOWER AND UPPER HOUSE WAS TOTALLY UNDER DEMOCRATIC CONTROL YET THEY PRODUCED NO BUDGET; RATHER THE OBAMA ADMINISTRATION OPERATED ON CONTINUING RESOLUTIONS. WHY? ALONG COMES THE MID-TERM ELECTIONS AND THE REPUBLICANS TAKE A MODEST CONTROL OVER THE HOUSE. THE SENATE REMAINS UNDER DEMOCRATIC CONTROL ALONG WITH THE WHITE HOUSE. STILL NO BUDGET. WHAT'S THIS ALL ABOUT?

THE EXISTING DEBT CEILING CRISIS IS THE SPECIAL CREATION OF THE POLITICAL PARTIES AND ADMINISTRATIONS OVER THE YEARS IN WASHINGTON ... THE DEBT CEILING AS A ANNUAL RITUAL NEVER MADE IT TO DIALOGUE LET ALONE A POLITICAL DEBATE ... THE FORMER KNOWN IN MANY CIRCLES AS "KICKING THE CAN DOWN THE ROAD" WHILE THE LATTER ... WELL THAT'S WHERE IS ARE NOW ... HOW SWEET!

ARTIFICIAL CRISIS OR CRISIS DUJOUR OR JUST PLAIN POLITICS AS USUAL. WELL COMMON SENSE TO THE RESCUE - AGAIN. THE TRUTH IS LYING IN PLAIN SIGHT. ITS A LITTLE OF EACH. AIN'T THAT AMERICA!

OBAMA'S FORM OF LEADERSHIP IS SOMETHING THAT EISENHOWER DESCRIBED AS "PUSHING ON A STRING" ... OBAMA HAS LOST THE CREDIBILITY OF THE AMERICAN PEOPLE THAT ELECTED HIM. HIS TIRED OLD COMMUNITY ORGANIZER RHETORIC OF "BALANCED THIS AND SHARED SACRIFICE ALONG WITH LET'S SOAK THE RICH AND RAISE TAXES" IS FALLING A DEFT EARS.

PERHAPS A REALIZATION, PERHAPS NOT, AS OBAMA COMMANDEERS A NATIONAL PRIME TIME TV SPOT TO WEIGH IN AS THE ONLY ADULT IN THE DEBATE BUT FAILS AND BRINGS A KNIFE TO A GUN FIGHT. HE HAS NO PLAN ON HOW TO ACHIEVE A RESOLUTION TO THE DEBT CEILING OR FINANCIAL WARMONGERING ONLY MEMORABLE QUOTES ABOUT ARMAGEDDON AND THE COMING FINANCIAL APOCALYPSE. WHAT HE FORGETS IS WHEN YOUR "TAP DANCING ON QUICKSAND" ... KEEP MOVING YOUR FEET. SO FAR THE AMERICAN PEOPLE BY AND LARGE JUST DON'T BUY WHAT HE'S SELLING.

I BELIEVE THERE WAS A PRESIDENT THAT WAS TAGGED WITH "WOULD YOU BUY A CAR FROM THIS GUY?" ... AND HE RESIGNED. BUT AT LEAST HE DIDN'T THREATEN THE SENIORS, THE POOR, THE INFIRM AND MILITARY.

Obama to Banks: We're Not Defaulting

QUICK MATH: NO DEFAULT. OBAMA IS MIFFED THAT THE CONGRESS WILL NOT ROLL OVER. PERHAPS THE ADMINISTRATION WILL START TO DO THE JOBS THEY WERE SENT TO WASHINGTON TO DO.

While officials from the Obama Administration raised their rhetoric over the weekend about the possibility of a debt default if the debt ceiling isn't raised, they privately have been telling top executives at major U.S. banks that such an event won’t happen, FOX Business has learned.

In a series of phone calls, administration officials have told bankers that the administration will not allow a default to happen even if the debt cap isn't raised by the August 2 date Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner says the government will run out of money to pay all its bills, including obligations to bond holders. Geithner made the rounds on the Sunday talk shows saying a default is imminent if the debt ceiling isn't raised, and President Obama issued a similar warning during a Friday press conference after budget negotiations with House Republicans broke down.

While the negotiations to craft a budget remain at an impasse, Republicans and Democrats on Monday began crafting their own plans to cut spending that could lead to an agreement to raise the debt ceiling. It's unclear if a broad agreement can be reached any time soon, but even if a deal is struck, a complicating issue for lawmakers and the administration is the possibility of a downgrade to the US debt rating, which would cut the triple-A rating on the nation's debt to a lower level.

Major ratings firms -- namely Standard & Poor's and Moody's -- have said even if the country raises the debt ceiling and doesn't default, there's a strong likelihood that the triple-A bond rating will be cut to double-A unless a budget can be crafted that results in $4 trillion in savings, the result of the massive debt load the country has accumulated in recent years. The nation's outstanding debt is more than $14 trillion.

A senior banking official told FOX Business that administration officials have provided guidance to them that even though a default is off the table, a downgrade "is a real possibility for no other reason than S&P and Moody's have to cover (themselves) since they've been speaking out on the debt cap so much."

This guidance is a big reason why Wall Street has largely dismissed the possibility of default, and though the markets have been jittery amid the talk of default, they haven't imploded as would be the case, many economists fear, if the nation missed a payment on its debt.

The banking official said the administration understands that if there were to be a default, it would likely spark another financial crisis.

"They also know they can pay the debt with cash on hand," this official told FOX Business. The Treasury collects around $2 trillion in tax revenues, and is scheduled to pay out $200 billion in interest to bond holders. In order to meet its obligations to contractors, social security recipients and others, the administration would have to raise another $1 trillion either through cuts, higher tax revenues, the issuance of debt or a combination of all three.

Congressional Republicans believe that the Administration is raising the possibility of a default as a way to ramp up pressure on Republicans to agree to a budget deal that includes tax increases, which they oppose.

A Treasury spokesman said that "when we exhaust our borrowing authority, as we will on August 2nd, there is no way to guarantee that we will be able to pay all of our bills. Any suggestion to the contrary is simply false."

Even without a default, banks expect some market turbulence if the triple-A sovereign-debt rating is cut, sources tell FOX Business. While bank officials do not believe there will be a “catastrophic” effect to a downgrade, that’s not to say there won’t be negative ripple effects, notably to bond deals and derivatives priced off triple-A-rated Treasurys.

Tuesday, July 26, 2011

THE FIRST CAUSALITY OF ANY PLAN IS THE PLAN WHEN THE 'RUBBER MEETS THE ROAD'. WHY SHOULD BUDGET NEGOTIATIONS BE ANY DIFFERENT. "WE THE PEOPLE" HAVE BEEN PUSHED UP AGAINST AN ARTIFICIAL DEAD LINE. IN FACT THE DEAD LINE IS ONLY A DEAD LINE IF AND ONLY IF "OBAMA ADMINISTRATION" CAN'T STOP THE SPENDING. THE DEBT CEILING WAS SET BY LAW. SO WHAT IS THE PROBLEM? DID "WE THE PEOPLE" SOMEHOW BROKE THE LAW? OR PERHAPS THE CONGRESS, THAT GREAT LEGISLATIVE BODY DIDN'T BELIEVE THE LAW APPLIED TO THEM. IF FACT FAR TOO MANY LAWS DON'T APPLIED TO THEM, PERHAPS THAT'S THE PROBLEM. THEY AS A GOVERNING BODY ARE NOT ABOVE THE LAW AND IT APPEARS ARE INCAPABLE OF OBEYING THE LAW ... OR ARE THEY?IF NOTHING IS DONE AND THE DEBT CEILING REMAINS AS IT IS ... THEN WHAT? DOES THE WORLD AS WE KNOW IT STOP SPINNING? I THINK NOT!

A PRESIDENT THAT THREATENS THE CITIZENS OF THIS COUNTRY DOES NOT REPRESENT "WE THE PEOPLE" OF THIS GREAT NATION. OBAMA IN A NEWS CONFERENCE STATED THAT HE COULDN'T GUARANTEE SOCIAL SECURITY PAYMENTS, MILITARY AND OTHER GOVERNMENT WORKERS. LET'S JUST FOCUS ON THE SOCIAL SECURITY (SSI) FOR THE MOMENT.

REMEMBER WHEN YOU GOT YOUR FIRST PAY CHECK AND LOOKED TO SEE HOW MUCH IT WAS? THEN YOU SAW WHAT YOUR CONTRIBUTION TO SOCIAL SECURITY WAS AND YOUR EMPLOYER MATCHED THAT CONTRIBUTION. IT TOTALED 15% OF YOUR INCOME BEFORE TAXES. NOW CONSIDER THIS. IF YOU AVERAGED ONLY $30,000 OVER YOUR WORKING LIFE, THAT'S CLOSE TO $220,500. IF YOU CALCULATED THE FUTURE VALUE OF $4,500 PER YEAR (YOUR AND YOUR EMPLOYER'S CONTRIBUTION) AT A SIMPLE 5% (LESS THAN WHAT THE GOVERNMENT PAYS ON THE MONEY THAT IT BORROWS), AFTER 49 YEARS OF WORKING YOU WOULD HAVE $892,919.98. IF YOU TOOK OUT ONLY 3% PER YEAR, YOUR WOULD RECEIVE $26,787.60 PER YEAR AND IT WOULD LAST BETTER THAN 30 YEARS, YOU RECEIVE $26,787.60 PER YEAR AND IT WOULD LAST BETTER THAN 30 YEARS, AND THAT'S WITH NO INTEREST PAID ON THAT FINAL AMOUNT ON DEPOSIT! IF YOU BOUGHT AN ANNUITY AND IT PAID 4% PER YEAR, YOU WOULD HAVE A LIFETIME INCOME OF $2,976.40 PER MONTH. THE FOLKS IN WASHINGTON HAVE PULLED OFF A BIGGER PONZI SCHEME THAN BERNIE MADHOFF EVER DREAM.