Choosing a President: The Long-Awaited Dan Mitchell Endorsement

I periodically get emails asking whether I support a presidential candidate. Most of these messages complain that I’ve been critical of Romney, Santorum, Gingrich, etc, and inquire if there’s anybody I like.

As a general rule, I don’t respond because I work at a think tank and we’re not supposed to be involved in partisan politics according to IRS rules.

But I found a loophole, so the time has come for me to announce my preferred candidate for the 2012 presidential election. And I’m making this much-anticipated announcement even though I won’t be casting a vote.

I want people to select François Hollande.

Who is Mr. Hollande, you ask? Well, actually, he’s Monsieur Hollande, because I’m making an endorsement in France’s presidential election.

For those of you who follow such matters, you may be wondering why I would prefer Monsieur Hollande. After all, he is the candidate of the French Socialist Party.

The French head to the polls Sunday for the first round of Presidential voting, but you wouldn’t know the candidates were competing in Europe’s most important election since the start of its economic crisis. …the contenders for the Elysée Palace—including Mr. Sarkozy—are in one way or another running on fairy tales. …The French economy is in a severe, if not yet acute, crisis. …French growth has been stagnant for five years. Unit labor costs have risen steadily for more than a decade, and high unemployment has become chronic. A quarter of French youth are jobless.

Here’s what we know about the supposedly right-of-center incumbent, Nicolas Sarkozy.

Nicolas Sarkozy, the center-right incumbent, is proposing to shrink the budget deficit by raising taxes in the name of “solidarity.” On top of his already-passed hikes in corporate and personal income taxes, and his 4% surcharge on high incomes, Mr. Sarkozy also promises an “exit tax” on French citizens who move abroad, presumably to make up for the revenue that goes missing when all those new levies impel high earners to leave the country. …Mr. Sarkozy proposes reducing payroll charges paid by employers but would make up for it by increasing VAT and taxes on investment income. This assumes there will be investment income left in France once Mr. Sarkozy’s financial-transactions tax goes into effect in August.

In other words, Sarkozy is a statist. But you knew that already if you read this, this, this,this, or this.

So what’s the alternative? Well, there isn’t one.

The President’s Socialist rival is a throwback of a different sort. François Hollande’s campaign has adopted a fiery old-left style that most had taken for dead after the Socialists’ 2007 defeat. All of Mr. Hollande’s major economic policy plans have roots in a punitive populism that would make U.S. Congressional class warriors blush. …Mr. Hollande says he’s “not dangerous” to the wealthy—he merely wants to confiscate 75% of their income over €1 million, and 45% over €150,000. He is, however, a self-avowed “enemy” of the financial industry, and he plans to impose extra penalties on oil companies and financial firms. He’d also raise the dividends tax and impose a new, higher rate of VAT on luxury goods.

The unfortunate people of France, to be blunt, are screwed no matter which candidate prevails. Government will get bigger, taxes will climb higher, jobs will be lost, and living standards will continue to stagnate.

Given this dismal outlook, though, I’d rather have the unambiguously left-wing party come out of top.

My reasoning is simple, and I’ve even decided to create a new rule to commemorate the analysis. The “Richard Nixon Disinfectant Rule” is that it’s always better to let the left-wing party win when the supposedly right-wing party has a statist candidate.

I name this rule after Nixon for the obvious reason that he was one of the worst Presidents in American history. And I’m not even counting the Watergate scandal and subsequent resignation. I’m referring to the spending, the taxes, the regulation, and the intervention.

Sarkozy, needless to say, has shown that he’s a French version of Nixon. Or Bush.

So if the French are going to be governed by a statist, it may as well be Hollande. That way, there’s at least a slight chance that the alleged right-of-center party will come to its senses and offer voters a genuine choice in the next election.

By the way, this was my mindset as a teenager when I wanted Jimmy Carter to beat Gerald Ford. I figured that was the best way of getting Ronald Reagan.

[…] proposing economically destructive policies. Indeed, I sometimes even relish the opportunity. I endorsed Francois Hollande back in 2012, for instance, because I was confident he would make the awful French tax system even […]

[…] proposing economically destructive policies. Indeed, I sometimes even relish the opportunity. I endorsed Francois Hollande back in 2012, for instance, because I was confident he would make the awful French tax system even […]

[…] proposing economically destructive policies. Indeed, I sometimes even relish the opportunity. I endorsed Francois Hollande back in 2012, for instance, because I was confident he would make the awful French tax system even […]

[…] proposing economically destructive policies. Indeed, I sometimes even relish the opportunity. I endorsed Francois Hollande back in 2012, for instance, because I was confident he would make the awful French tax system even […]

[…] Considering that two of his major opponents are Marine Le Pen, a big-government populist, and Benoît Hamon, a socialist who favors a taxpayer-provided basic income for everyone, maybe Fillon actually is the only choice for French voters with libertarian impulses, but that’s a rather sad commentary on the state of French politics. So I don’t even know if I’ll endorse a candidate, like I did back in 2012. […]

[…] P.P.P.P.S. The big puzzle is why the French put up with so much statism. Polling data from both 2010 and 2013 shows strong support for smaller government, and an astounding 52 percent of French citizens said they would consider moving to the United States if they got the opportunity. So why, then, have they elected statists such as Sarkozy and Hollande?!? […]

[…] P.P.S. The big puzzle is why the French put up with so much statism. Polling data from both 2010 and 2013 shows strong support for smaller government, and an astounding 52 percent of French citizens said they would consider moving to the United States if they got the opportunity. So why, then, do they elect statists such as Sarkozy and Hollande?!? […]

[…] of me wants to cheer for a Bersani-Monti coalition government for the same reason that I wanted Hollande to win in France. When there’s no good alternative, let the above-board statists prevail so there’s hope […]

[…] The WSJ also takes some well-deserved potshots at the latest fiscal plan in Spain. Since I endorsed Hollande in hopes that he would engage in suicidal fiscal policy, this post is focused on the French fiscal plan. But Spain also is a disaster. Daniel J. […]

[…] The WSJ also takes some well-deserved potshots at the latest fiscal plan in Spain. Since I endorsed Hollande in hopes that he would engage in suicidal fiscal policy, this post is focused on the French fiscal plan. But Spain also is a disaster. Rate this:Share […]

[…] that basis, I should be utterly and deliriously overjoyed about my endorsement of Francois Hollande to be President of France. I wanted him to win, in part because he would engage in statist experiments that would help […]

The fact that Americans seem oblivious to what is happening in Europe does not bode well…

The overriding summary is that…

Being a successful economy in Europe means riding a two percent growth trendline — and thus losing ground at “only” a three percent annual rate — in a world that is growing five percent per year. On the other hand, being an average European economy, like France, means riding a one percent growth trendline and thus losing ground at a four percent annual rate.

It is too late for Europe. So, in many ways, the sooner Europe hits bottom the better perhaps, though, alas, it is already too late for America to draw the lesson. Mr. Hollande’s election will only accelerate the already inevitable time when the French walk hat-in-hand to ask for German support.

There is no serious talk in Europe about the more successful countries — those that perhaps still have a small chance at escaping the deadly embrace of redistribution / decline – exiting what will soon become a chocking European Wealth Transfer Union. The momentum is with the statists and the inevitable forces of decline. After all, how can European countries avoid cross border redistribution when every single one of them practices, supports and mandates such redistribution inside its borders? It would be hypocritical. If the French public wants to tax productive French people at seventy five percent, what do you suppose French people will do to their more productive Dutch brethren once they are given the democratic chance in a united Europe? The mediocre will gradually suffocate any exceptionalism left in Europe. An ever shrinking minority of remaining European producers will be increasingly tapped to support mediocrity amongst an ever increasing indolent majority. The ship goes down, like many before the world over, long ago.

Look at the demographic numbers:
There are three blocks in the European Union. The supporting countries (as if they can afford it — already growing at anemic sub-par two percent rates), the supported, and the neutral, the last group consisting primarily of ex-communist countries who cannot believe that they ridded themselves of communism, only to tether themselves to Euro-socialism, the next declining philosophy. But they remain neutral overall, because in the myopic short term they see some potential benefit from redistribution given by the, temporarily, wealthier west.

France has sat in between the two main blocks, being amongst the supported in practice, but still proudly and delusionally pretending to be a supporter. Mr. Hollande’s election will more decisively throw France in the supported camp, though Mr. Sarkozy has now also made similar promises towards further flattening of the effort-reward curves in France. Why? Because that is what the French people want. They want to suck the blood out of the last remaining productive people left in France. The Titanic is sinking by a rising tide in the developing world and the passengers of the Euro-Titanic are obsessed with the fact that flood engineers make more money.

The supported counties (Italy, Spain, Greece, Belgium, Portugal) are soon to be more decisively joined by France, and that is really regardless of who wins the French election, but more so if Mr. Hollande wins which will also embolden the German Socialists. The citizens of these supported countries outnumber the citizens of the supporting countries and their citizens support pan-European redistribution by something like a five to one margin. Add to this majority the percentage of useful idiots amongst the populations of the Northern still marginally surviving countries – perhaps thirty to forty percent – and you see that those promoting an entitlement of indolence are about to become a solid majority in Europe. Add to that politicians, whose inherent labor product is collectivism, and you see the hopeless situation of Europe. The writing was already on the wall long ago, when most Europeans reacted to effort-reward curves being introduced in the three billion developing world, by actually flattening their European effort-reward curves — a philosophy Americans now seem to be adopting.

Will European citizens realize that flat effort-reward curves are a sure path to decline in a world where three billion competing people have finally woken up to even moderate effort-reward curves? No. It’s too late for that in Europe. Distress will only bring calls for more redistribution and the deadly embrace of decline will only deepen.

Alas, Europeans seem to have successfully exported that delusional and desperate philosophy to America. The iceberg has not been quite hit yet in the New World, but the ship has definitely sailed past the fifty degree latitude. It’s only a matter of time. The writing is on the wall.

Sounds good in theory, but in 2008, the Democrat statist beat the Republican statist and unleashed ever greater harm on the country than even Bush Jr. managed. Did the GOP respond with a real choice? The only fiscal conservative in the race is ridiculed into the margins.

equal parts hilarious and horrifying. this idea means little in terms of US politics, though. we’ve seen bush sr, dole, and bush jr over the last several decades. it was communist obama vs statist mccain last time, and this time it’s (judging by results) fascist obama vs statist romney. republicans might not learn until libertarians finally break off for at least one election.

Your advice is 30 years old! If followed in the United States today, thousands of pages of corrupt legislation (including all of the hidden landmines) passed under the Obama regime will become permanently entrenched in our government and our Constitutional republic will be irreparably damaged.