He wants consent, not in-out: how can David Cameron prevent his referendum turning into a vote on EU exit?

The Prime Minister's back-to-front approach to European speechifying is causing plenty of disquiet and bafflement among his colleagues. At a basic level there is plenty of muttering about the way Number 10 has contrived to make David Cameron have to talk – and talk – about a speech he hasn't delivered yet. This morning's outing on the Today programme was a case in point: the night before Downing St says Dave will be appearing to discuss pensions. Result? He appears, and discusses Europe, at length, with a brief PS for pensions thrown in at the end by John Humphrys. At this rate Mr Cameron will have used up more words anticipating the speech than it actually contains. The to-and-fro about the date hasn't helped. There are some too who wish he had just dropped it on us and made a surprise of it, rather than this dance of the seven veils. Expectations unmanaged.

Never mind the process though, let's consider the content. As James Kirkup argued earlier, Mr Cameron's approach is to keep both sides unhappy and tilt for the middle. His betting is that a majority support his objective, which is to make real William Hague's ideal of a "Britain in Europe, not run by Europe". He wants a renewed relationship, with powers repatriated, and he wants that new arrangement to be given consent in a referendum. Victory in the general election of 2015 would provide the mandate for negotiation. What is unclear, and therefore uncertain, is how Mr Cameron will answer the hypotheticals that arise, namely: what if he can't persuade his EU friends to give him a deal, especially in the brief timespan he envisages? Or what if the British people withhold their consent from any deal he presents? Both of those outcomes point to the exit. Indeed, the latter is the more dangerous, because it supposes a moment when Mr Cameron has been vetoed by the electorate. How then does he prevent a 'no' – a withholding of consent – being interpreted as a vote for 'out'? Mr Cameron confirmed today that he will argue for us to remain in the EU. But there are several among his Cabinet who will argue that his 'consent' referendum will be an in/out choice in all but name: a 'no' will be a vote for leaving. As one Cabinet minister told me, 'David cannot disguise it: if we do not get a substantial renegotiation, then we have to leave'. This is not what Mr Cameron wants, but it is how it will be seen.