NASCAR rail: Dickies 500 at a glance

Wednesday

Oct 31, 2007 at 12:01 AMOct 31, 2007 at 8:59 AM

NASCAR rail, with driver profiles, track info and more.

Dan Beaver

Where: Texas Motor Speedway, Justin, Texas
When: 3 p.m. ET
Broadcast: ABC, live on Sirius satellite radio, channel 128
The Lowdown: The points battle continues at Texas Motor Speedway this week, and Jimmie Johnson may just have enough momentum on his side to sweep past teammate Jeff Gordon for the No. 1 spot. Fittingly, the Craftsman Truck Series runs a companion event from now until the end, because they have an equally tight battle, and neither contest will be settled until the last lap at Homestead-Miami Speedway.
Previous 5 Winners:
2006: Tony Stewart
2005: Carl Edwards
2004: Elliott Sadler (spring)
2003: Ryan Newman (spring)
2002: Matt Kenseth (spring)
Last Week’s Winner: JIMMIE JOHNSON
There is no doubt that the points battle is going to come down to the two Hendrick Motorsports teammates, and Johnson has a strong enough record at Texas to take over the top spot. If he wins the race, he's the points leader; it's that simple. But Johnson has not been infallible on this track. His engine soured on lap 229 in the spring race, while Gordon finished in the top five. A single stumble by either drive in the last three races — one finish of 25th or worse — is going to hand the championship to the other, because he can go into prevent defense until the end of the season. They are going to hear every rattle in the car this week.
1. Jeff Gordon
Three-year-average finish at Texas: 12.8
During the first four years the NASCAR Nextel Cup series went to Texas, this track was brutal to Gordon, and he finished 25th or worse. From 2001 through 2004, he swept the top five, and with a fourth there in the spring, he seems to be back in top form.
2. Jimmie Johnson
Three-year-average finish at Texas: 11.8
Before he developed engine problems this spring, Johnson had a worst finish of only 11th at Texas. Trailing by nine points, the math is simple for the No. 48 team to win the championship. If he finishes in front of Gordon for the next three races, he wins his second consecutive NASCAR Nextel Cup.
3. Clint Bowyer
Three-year-average finish at Texas: 13.3
As predicted last week, Bowyer finished in the top 10 and still lost ground to the leaders. While he actually closed the margin by four points, he only has three races to make up the differential, and unless Gordon and Johnson experience trouble in the same race, his hopes for the Cup are dashed.
4. Carl Edwards
Three-year-average finish at Texas: 16.6
Edwards has a victory and two more top-fives during the Chase, but a crash-induced 37th-place finish at Kansas leaves him well out of contention. He has his sights set on victory now in order to put maximum pressure on the leaders, or at least salvage the team's pride.
5. Tony Stewart
Three-year-average finish at Texas: 13.2
Stewart fans liked his odds entering last week's Pep Boys Auto 500 since he had won that race in 2006 as well as the Dickies 500 at Texas. He struggled to find a setup that worked, however, and when he short-pitted to make up some ground, an ill-timed caution stranded him two laps off the pace.
6. Kyle Busch
Three-year-average finish at Texas: 23.4
This spring race at Texas may have been the beginning of the end at Hendrick Motorsports for Busch. When he crashed his car into Dale Earnhardt Jr. and then left the track in a huff while his team tried to make repairs, he inadvertently handed the keys to his Chevy to the driver who'll replace him in 2008.
7. Kevin Harvick
Three-year-average finish at Texas: 13.2
Last year, Harvick swept the top five at Texas, but those were his first finishes that strong on the Lone Star track. With a career average of 14th and a 29th in this spring's Samsung 500, he's going to have to wait for the short, flat track of Phoenix International Raceway to make up any ground.
8. Jeff Burton
Three-year-average finish at Texas: 17.4
Burton won the inaugural race here in 1997 and the most recent contest this spring, which makes him Texas Motor Speedway's only repeat winner in its history. In between those two races, however, his average finish has been a mediocre 20.8.
9. Kurt Busch
Three-year-average finish at Texas: 14.0
Busch finished fourth in his first attempt on this track in 2001, and he's never managed to break back into the top five. He hasn't done badly, though — in his next eight attempts, he has six finishes of 11th or better.
10. Denny Hamlin
Three-year-average finish at Texas: 7.5
Water in his fuel caused Hamlin to sputter out of the lead last week at Atlanta, and he was pounded on the rear bumper by Martin Truex Jr. At least Texas is a good place to heal his wounds, since the driver of the No. 11 has never finished outside the top 10 on this 1.5-mile track.
11. Matt Kenseth
Three-year-average finish at Texas: 7.4
Kenseth has the best three-year average finish of all active drivers — narrowly edging Hamlin for the honor. Not that it's going to do him much good with a 448-point deficit to first, but he should be able to claim his third consecutive top 10 in the Chase and prepare for next season.
12. Martin Truex Jr.
Three-year-average finish at Texas: 11.0
Truex would have been one of the favorites for this race after his strong run last week in the Pep Boys Auto 500. Unfortunately, he destroyed that dominant car on the penultimate restart of the race and will have to break a new one in for Sunday's Dickies 500.
Laps in the top five
Last three years
Driver
Laps
%
Possible Laps
Tony Stewart
941
56%
1,675
Jimmie Johnson
704
42%
1,675
Kasey Kahne
598
36%
1,675
Matt Kenseth
596
36%
1,675
Kurt Busch
496
30%
1,675
Greg Biffle
450
27%
1,675
Jeff Gordon
448
27%
1,675
Mark Martin
444
27%
1,675
Dale Earnhardt Jr
436
26%
1,675
Denny Hamlin
329
25%
1,341
Casey Mears
384
23%
1,675
Carl Edwards
345
21%
1,675
Jeff Burton
333
20%
1,675
Clint Bowyer
158
16%
1,007
Kevin Harvick
260
16%
1,675
Kyle Busch
201
12%
1,675
J J Yeley
115
11%
1,007
Jeremy Mayfield
110
11%
1,002
Martin Truex Jr
145
11%
1,341
Michael Waltrip
141
11%
1,341
Jamie McMurray
169
10%
1,675
Brian Vickers
150
9%
1,675
Scott Riggs
89
5%
1,675
Reed Sorenson
26
3%
1,007
Robby Gordon
25
2%
1,341
Ryan Newman
25
1%
1,675
Joe Nemechek
14
1%
1,675
David Stremme
8
1%
1,007
Johnny Sauter
4
1%
668
Juan Montoya
2
1%
334
Elliott Sadler
10
1%
1,675
David Gilliland
4
1%
673
Ken Schrader
8
0%
1,675
Bobby Labonte
7
0%
1,675
Tony Raines
4
0%
1,007
Ricky Rudd
2
0%
1,002
Kyle Petty
3
0%
1,675
Paul Menard
1
0%
673