Posted!

Join the Conversation

Comments

Welcome to our new and improved comments, which are for subscribers only.
This is a test to see whether we can improve the experience for you.
You do not need a Facebook profile to participate.

You will need to register before adding a comment.
Typed comments will be lost if you are not logged in.

Please be polite.
It's OK to disagree with someone's ideas, but personal attacks, insults, threats, hate speech, advocating violence and other violations can result in a ban.
If you see comments in violation of our community guidelines, please report them.

1. Good on the glass (again): Nevada has dominated the backboard in its last two games, both double-digit wins. It out-rebounded Air Force by 20 two games ago and was plus-16 against Utah State last time out. The Pack has played good defense in those games, so the number of defensive rebounds to grab has been higher, but it also has been killer on the offensive glass in those wins. The Pack is 18-1 when winning or tying the rebounding battle this season (and 3-5 when it doesn’t do that). Boise State is tied with Nevada for second place in the MW in rebounding margin (plus-3.0). This is strength vs. strength.

2. Limit penetration from Austin, Hutchison: Boise State’s top two offensive play-makers are speedy guard Paris Austin and slashing wing player Chandler Hutchison, who can get to the hoop against even strong defenses. Nevada limited Austin (five points, 2-of-9) in its first game against Boise State but struggled to slow down Hutchison (23 points, 9-of-18), who repeatedly got to the rim. Boise State has been mediocre from three this season, hitting just 33.7 percent, and has become more reliant on drives. The Broncos do an excellent job of passing the ball, cutting and using angles on offense. It’s hard to keep them from penetrating the lane.

3. Good ball movement for three: Defensively, the Broncos try to run teams off the 3-point line, something it has been good at this season. It has allowed only 131 made 3-pointers, the third-lowest number in the NCAA. The Wolf Pack has to use good ball movement to get quality looks from beyond the arc. That’s something it did in the first game against Boise State when it was 9-of-27 from three (the third most made threes by a Boise State opponent this season). In its 21 wins, Nevada has made 41.6 percent of its 3-point attempts (204-of-490). In its six losses, it’s made 29.5 percent of its 3-point attempts (43-of-146).

Prediction

Chris Murray: Nevada 78, Boise State 70. It’d be easy to look at Nevada’s 19-point win at Boise State last month and forecast an easy Wolf Pack victory, but the Broncos had an uncharacteristic showing in the first outing. Austin scored only five points – he’s averaging 14.6 in his other MW games – and all but two Broncos players (Hutchison and guard Justinian Jessup) were held below their MW average. It was just one of those rough offensive nights every team goes through. Boise State will need senior big man Nick Duncan to get on track to win this one. He’s shooting just 28.8 percent overall and 26.4 percent from three in MW play – his career averages are 40.2 and 36 percent, respectively. If Duncan’s struggles continue, Boise State just doesn’t have enough offensive firepower to match up with Nevada, which has a significant advantage in athleticism, as evidenced by the first game. Boise State could keep this one close, but Nevada is a cut above the Broncos in quality and has the home-court edge, where it is 27-4 under Eric Musselman. I'll take the Wolf Pack. Season record: 21-6