That’s compared to just three Experts picking Stephen Colbert: Eric Deggans (NPR), Lynette Rice (Entertainment Weekly), and Glenn Whipp (Los Angeles Times). But Colbert is himself a past winner, just like Oliver: he won Best Variety Series in 2013 and 2014, which is even more impressive because in those years talk shows and sketch shows competed against each other in the same race.

For the Editors, support is divided the other way around. Three out of the six of us predict Colbert: Chris Beachum, Marcus James Dixon, and Rob Licuria. Compare that to two Editors predicting Oliver: Matt Noble and myself.

However, in our combined predictions “Late Show” trails significantly with 4/1 odds, or about a 19% chance of winning. That actually places it third behind “Full Frontal with Samantha Bee,” which isn’t the favorite of any of our prediction leagues but has enough support from each that it gets second-place odds of 7/2 (21% chance of winning). If it sounds like Colbert and Bee are quite far behind when Oliver has a better than 50/50 chance of winning again, well, you’re right. But let’s not forget that FiveThirtyEight thought Hillary Clinton had a 71% chance of winning the US presidency last November, and that race is usually far more predictable than the Emmys.

Be sure to make your Emmy predictions so that Hollywood insiders can see how their TV shows and performers are faring in our Emmy odds. You can keep changing your predictions until just before winners are announced on September 17. And join in the fierce debate over the 2017 Emmys taking place right now with Hollywood insiders in our TV forums. Read more Gold Derby entertainment news.