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Tom

Math model prediction - toss up. It depends on how many late absentees were cast. This year there is unusually high number of absentees, could be due to GOTV efforts by both campaigns. In some counties Dems have better result at absentees than the result on election day. Since many absentees are not counted yet and we are talking of about 3000-4000 more votes, it is not unlikely that Carmouche wins those by 7-8% margin. Plus the gain from provisionals (100+) that can be enough to win!

Hmm. LA-4 looks good for Dems. Three reasons:
1. Most absentees have been counted (check LA SoS) and they favor GOP. On the other hand last time LA-4 voted for Congress GOP won 57.40% of the vote and (only) 58.19% of the absentees. So we must expect absentee tie again therefore the rest (last minute absentees) will probably favor Dems.
2. LA-4 has a tradition of not so many provisionals - but they favor Dems 3:1 if not more. Most counties have 0 or 1 provisional ballot. A dozen or so for Bossier and 150-200-250 for Caddo.
3. CADDO - the bastion of Carmouche. 95% of the provisional ballots were cast here. Dems are winning those probably 4:1. I expect 200 provisionals and net gain of 120 for Carmouche. Not enough but a good start! The other thing - many absentees to be counted in Caddo - and those should go big for Carmouche - he is underperforming in absentees there, so we can expect as many as 70% of the late last-minute absentee votes to go his way.

Have you seen the precinct data? I checked it and the recount has odd numbers here and there. Check Becker county, CALLAWAY Township and feel free to give your opinion on what ahppened there. What actually happened there?

It is so easy these days for oppressed people to get a week of training, travel half the world and blow a building or take hostages. Religion has something to do with it but not a lot. It is globalization, it is extremely poor and extremely rich. We need to have Asia and Africa close the gap to Europe and USA.

I am surprised why so many left bloggers don't want Bill in Senate (Kos poll). I don't think he will try to use his power as Senator too much IMHO he is a good and useful Democrat, not the best but better than the most!

Age? Is it all about age? 55 is too old to take such an office? I am not buying it! Feingold is fine, almost perfect! I wan t someone liberal enough to support my standings, experienced enough to know how to turn it into reality, clever enough to deal with the other judges. Do you think they will take 'a kid' seriously? This is neither the House nor the Senate; race, divercity? Ha! Give me the best mind available, no matter race or sex! I vote with Jess on that one!

It is the salary, but not really! Because Phil, Michael and Jon receive $1.00 per year and return the rest to their state (city), while Arnold gives his salary for charity while California is in debt. But he is Republican, so no surprise he is more interested in his popularity than he is in his state