The Mockingbird NBA Finals Preview (and REview)

Astute readers will note that the NBA Finals have already begun, and that it’s fashionable to “preview” something before it begins. Well, that’s not how we roll here at the ‘Bird. At least, not at the sports desk, which is currently covered in more paper than…um…something covered in a lot of paper. If you read our completely serious playoff preview, you’ll know that my pick for NBA Champion, the San Antonio Spurs, have already been fed through the woodchipper that is the Oklahoma City Thunder. Why, then, should you trust my analysis of the Finals? Well…you’re reading this already, so why don’t you just read on to the end?

The Thunder won Game 1 last night, coming back from a 13-point deficit in the first half to win by 11 (Although, it should be noted that it was a five point game with 1:38 remaining…the final difference came because the Thunder are an excellent free throw shooting team and Miami had to keep fouling, trying to get back in the game). The Thunder have home court advantage, so might well have been expected to win (they were favored). In fact, there are a couple of historical notes that might serve to downplay the importance of this particular win.

First, the Spurs won Game 1 of the Western Conference Finals (against these Thunder) at home in similarly convincing fashion. Obviously, the Spurs went on to be defeated in the series. Secondly, the team with home court advantage in last year’s Finals (it happened to be Miami) won Game 1 and went on to lose the series. It seems safe to say that this victory for the Thunder doesn’t assure them of a championship.

Because of the old “a series doesn’t really start until the home team loses” adage, last night’s game has been turned into a referendum on the “LeBron James or Kevin Durant?” question. As you might imagine, it’s not enough for them to both be wonderful players, we must decide which one of them is more wonderful. For instance, after the game last night, pundit Skip Bayless tweeted: “That clinches it: Kevin Durant is definitely better than LeBron.” Here are their stat lines, for the curious:

Pretty darn similar, right? The big differences are, first, that Durant was more efficient, shooting 60% from the field while James “only” shot 46%. 46% is a really good shooting percentage. 60% is great. The other main difference, and I suspect the one that Bayless is reacting to, is that Durant scored 17 points in the 4th quarter while James scored only 7. Am I living in a crazy world, or are first, second, and third quarter points worth just as much as fourth quarter points? I mean, you total the points from the whole game to decide the winner, right?

It doesn’t seem like the “who is better” question can be answered during the careers of two competitors. It’s hard enough to answer after retirement. Bird or Magic? Wilt or Russell? Durant was better last night. Not by much, but by enough to win.

Here’s the thing about this series, in my opinion: Oklahoma City is a much better jump shooting team than Miami. The Heat sometimes fall into the habit of trying to “match” their opponent (they are the most notorious “play to the level of your competition” team in the league)…for instance, shooting a three when they’ve just given one up, etc. If Miami gets into a jump shooting battle with the Thunder, they’ll lose, and quickly. For the Heat to have a chance, and I think last night’s result proves that they can at least stay with the athleticism of OKC, LeBron and Wade must keep moving and cutting, barreling into the lane, and forcing the defense to react to them. Unfortunately for the Heat, I don’t think they’ll do it. I’m picking the Thunder in 6 games, because I think LeBron, for some reason, thinks he’s a better jump shooter than he is. It’s almost the only weakness in an otherwise super-human game, but it can be a crippling one.

5 comments

Excellent analysis. As I watched the stretch run of Game 1, I wondered why LeBron and Wade weren’t driving the ball inside more, “attacking the rim” to use the currently fashionable phrase. They did it successfully thorough most of the game. But they (especially LeBron) seemed content to take (and miss) jump shots as the game was being decided. At moments like that, one wonders what’s going on with the Heat as a team – is the problem in LeBron’s head, is it Spoelstra’s coaching, what?

Well, it seems as though the Heat have been reading our analysis…they’ve stopped taking jump shots, started pounding the paint, and have taken a commanding 3-1 series lead. We’ll see what happens next…

Indeed.
And experience seems to have been a big factor in the finishes of these last few games, as the Heat have been steady and the Thunder have made the kind of mistakes you might expect from 22 and 23 year olds in the NBA Finals.

Now that LeBron has his championship, I’m struck by something he said during the Finals about his outlook this season vs. last season: “Like I said, last year, I played to prove people wrong instead of just playing my game, instead of just going out and having fun and playing a game that I grew up loving, and why I fell in love with the game.”

About

WHAT: Mockingbird seeks to connect the Christian faith with the realities of everyday life in fresh and down-to-earth ways.

WHY: Are we called Mockingbird? The name was inspired by the mockingbird’s peculiar gift for mimicking the cries of other birds. In a similar way, we seek to repeat the message we have heard - God’s word of grace and forgiveness.

HOW: Via every medium available! At present this includes (but is not limited to) a daily weblog, semi-annual conferences, and an ongoing publications initiative.

WHO: At present, we employ three full-time staff, David Zahl and Ethan Richardson and William McDavid. They are helped and supported by a large number of contributing volunteers and writers. Our board of directors is chaired by Mr. Thomas Becker.

WHERE: Our offices are located at Christ Episcopal Church in Charlottesville, VA.

WHEN: Mockingbird was incorporated in June 2007 and is currently in its seventh year of operation.

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