This makes me wonder just how many of the iphone4 model Apple will sell in 30 days? Does anyone know what is the current record for the most phones sold for one model in a 30 day period? Whatever it is, I feel confident Apple will smash it with the iPhone4. Their biggest advantage is it will be in 5 countries instead of one on June 24th. And the desire to get whole families into iPhone4 for the FaceTime will be hard to resist.

If I had to guess, I will say 5 million (3 million in the US and 2 million for the other 4 countries). I can't wait to upgrade my 3G.

How many countries was the 3GS sold in? I seem to recall it was more than just the US last year.

Hmm, 5M? Seems doable. I can't imagine anyone phone selling that many units so quickly. If they do that that will probably outsell all Blackberries and Android phones for that quarter. I imagine the stock would reflect it in short order. $300/share isn't far away.

Quote:

Originally Posted by justflybob

Yeah, some of us have.

In fact, I can see Russia from my iPhone!

Dick Applebaum on whether the iPad is a personal computer: "BTW, I am posting this from my iPad pc while sitting on the throne... personal enough for you?"

I have been reading a lot on forums about the Iphone-4 and it is very evident that this is going to be a record-smashing sales hit. Because of the huge press that Apple got from the "lost Iphone", a lot of people that may have had only a casual interest in Apple's latest creation are now wanting this phone. The NBC affiliate station where I live actually was following engadget's blog on the air during Steve's WWDC keynote as it was taking place during our mid-day newscast. I honestly cannot think of any item in recent history that has so many people, with such a large demographic, excited about it's release. I mean, this is truly like Christmas for many adults. Younger kids will be getting the Iphone hand-me-downs, or even new phones, due to the Facetime feature. When the younger ones are ready to buy their own phones, they will probably purchase an Iphone, not to mention many, many Mac computers and iPads. The Halo effect is going to only increase as long as Apple continues to make desirable products and gives incredible customer service.

As for the Android phones, most hardware manufactures do not make other computer devices for people to purchase due to a possible halo effect. Netbooks and tablets will soon show up, but brand loyalty will be low. Moto-Droid users may buy an HTC or Archos tablet. As long as Apple continues to give the consumer a great user experience, that happy consumer will only have Apple as their choice if they want other products with similar quality.

On a more serious and fun note (related to the topic) - didn't Apple expect initial sales of 24M? I remember reading they were working to that number, but no idea over what period of time that was.

The only time Apple set goal for iPhones sale was for 2008 (10M) and they exceeded it. I don't remember Apple setting any sales goal for 2009. However, I do remember some analysts predicting very hight numbers.

I have no idea. I think NasserAE's 2M prediction through the weekend sounds pretty reasonable.

Honestly, 2M through the weekend is completely underestimating, IMHO. The 15th is a Tuesday. Over 1M launch day (preorders, if the website can handle it.) They better have free Ben and Jerry's for the 24th!

I'm preordering though, so I guess it doesn't matter if they have the ice cream. It is nice to have while waiting in line though

Well, I don't think you are reading me either. What I'm saying is that it *was* hard to get an iPhone in previous years, outside of the USA.

Even with the iPhone 4, if it arrives exactly on time and there are no shortages, it will still be several months after it's release before it arrives in my location. When it does, it will be hard to get, just like the last three times.

I think Apple promised the fastest rollout ever. They want to launch 20 more countries in July and are going to be in all their 80+ existing markets by the end of September. Realistically, you couldn't ask for more, not from Apple or any other major electronics company.

Apple will launch with the usual 1 or 2 million units in a few countries first. You cannot ask them to put 5 million units into warehouses for a worldwide parallel launch without knowing how fast they're going to sell. That's not how consumer electronics are sold nowadays. Apple doesn't have warehouses. Items are to be produced just in time, and in such a tight channel producing too much is just as bad (costly) as producing too litte. I'd rather wait a few weeks than having to pay a $100 risk surcharge on my iPhone.

I think Apple promised the fastest rollout ever. They want to launch 20 more countries in July and are going to be in all their 80+ existing markets by the end of September. Realistically, you couldn't ask for more, not from Apple or any other major electronics company.

Apple will launch with the usual 1 or 2 million units in a few countries first. You cannot ask them to put 5 million units into warehouses for a worldwide parallel launch without knowing how fast they're going to sell. That's not how consumer electronics are sold nowadays. Apple doesn't have warehouses. Items are to be produced just in time, and in such a tight channel producing too much is just as bad (costly) as producing too litte. I'd rather wait a few weeks than having to pay a $100 risk surcharge on my iPhone.

I understand what you are saying. 88 countries by the end of September is pretty damn fast. And one can assume that the speed of these rollouts indicates that Apple is pretty sure it can produce enough product to have many more units available per month than it did last year, but it's certainly not a guarantee.

Prof. Peabody's point still holds. Even if they are producing 2x or 3x as many units per month this time around, if the demand outstrips supply again then those of in the US may have trouble getting an iPhone and if that is the case, then those outside the country may have even more trouble.

Dick Applebaum on whether the iPad is a personal computer: "BTW, I am posting this from my iPad pc while sitting on the throne... personal enough for you?"

Honestly, 2M through the weekend is completely underestimating, IMHO. The 15th is a Tuesday. Over 1M launch day (preorders, if the website can handle it.) They better have free Ben and Jerry's for the 24th!

What people don't realize about Apple's launch figures for the iPhone: Those millions are what Apple delivered to carrier partners, not necessarily what end customers bought. Even if stock is tight after the launch weekend, there are still several 100.000 units in store somewhere.

In other words, if preorders and sales to first-day customers double compared to last year, that alone will not double the figure Apple touts. For that figure, the number of outlets that Apple is launching in matters just as well. In that respect, we have two opposing trends this year:

1. Far fewer launch countries. iPhone 3GS launched in 20 countries last year. This year it's only 5 (including the US of course).
2. More 3rd party retailers at launch. In the US we have confirmation from Radio Shack and Walmart. Those two did not participate in the 3GS launch. That's hundreds of thousands of extra units Apple needs to fill their shelves.

If you add those 2 together, you will probably see a slight upward trend in terms of launch sales compared to last year, but nothing dramatic. The fact that Apple reduced the number of launch countries tells you that they don't even want anything dramatic. Doing bombastic, oversized launch sales is just an expensive way to get publicity. Apple won't need that anymore. They want to do a nice, clean launch in as many countries as they can handle and then keep the ball rolling with steady supply and more countries going online as soon as stock allows.

Instead of first day/first weekend, we should focus on quarterly sales as a measure of the iPhone 4's success. Last year, Apple sold 5 million iPhones in the June quarter. Can they do 10 million this year? I think they can.

International sales passed US sales a couple of quarters ago and last quarter stood at 58%.

150 networks across ninety countries.

AT&T is becoming less and less important and the US is the main market for Android sales.

AT&T and the US still buy considerably more iPhones than other carrier or country. I think makes AT&T and the US pretty important to Apple when they focus on iPhone sales.

They may even get more profit from US sales due to the size of the country with nationwide cellular coverage (sans Alaska) and the number of units being sold here. Does the EU have a single iPhone for all participating nations or does each new country have it's own import laws, FCC-like regulations, packaging, etc. that have to be dealt with?

Dick Applebaum on whether the iPad is a personal computer: "BTW, I am posting this from my iPad pc while sitting on the throne... personal enough for you?"

I understand what you are saying. 88 countries by the end of September is pretty damn fast. And one can assume that the speed of these rollouts indicates that Apple is pretty sure it can produce enough product to have many more units available per month than it did last year, but it's certainly not a guarantee.

Prof. Peabody's point still holds. Even if they are producing 2x or 3x as many units per month this time around, if the demand outstrips supply again then those of in the US may have trouble getting an iPhone and if that is the case, then those outside the country may have even more trouble.

I'm not denying that. I'm just explaining why it has to be that way. What would be the alternative? Apple not launching in the US, their homemarket, first, so there's more supply for other countries? A worldwide iPhone lottery, where one in 5 customers is "allowed" to buy a phone at launch? I say instead of freaking out and being mad at Apple or the Americans or whatever, one should stay calm, look at the realities of industrial production and remind oneself that it's after all just a phone.

Personally, I'm one of the lucky few that live in one of the 5 launch countries this year (Germany), and my contract is up so I'd be eligible for the iPhone 4 in 2 weeks. Nevertheless, I've told myself to be strong and wait until the fall, when hopefully T-Mobile's exclusivity contract runs out. I'm prepared to wait until November, and in the meantime my iPhone 3G is still good enough.

I say instead of freaking out and being mad at Apple or the Americans or whatever, one should stay calm, look at the realities of industrial production and remind oneself that it's after all just a phone.

True, but I can't help but be glad I'm in the US this year for the launch.

Dick Applebaum on whether the iPad is a personal computer: "BTW, I am posting this from my iPad pc while sitting on the throne... personal enough for you?"

AT&T and the US still buy considerably more iPhones than other carrier or country. I think makes AT&T and the US pretty important to Apple when they focus on iPhone sales.

They may even get more profit from US sales due to the size of the country with nationwide cellular coverage (sans Alaska) and the number of units being sold here. Does the EU have a single iPhone for all participating nations or does each new country have it's own import laws, FCC-like regulations, packaging, etc. that have to be dealt with?

Nope, single market since the early 90s. As for packaging, Apple has to change a few stickers on the box and the manuals. That cost will be minimal. Currency is obviously still an issue in some places.

By the way, AFAIR AT&T sold only 2.7 million of 8.75 million iPhones in the first quarter. That's just 30 %.

Nope, single market since the early 90s. As for packaging, Apple has to change a few stickers on the box and the manuals. That cost will be minimal. Currency is obviously still an issue in some places.

I didn't realize the EU was so universal. Same power adapter, same governing bodies and a single import tax for all EU nations is much more organized than I would have thought.

Quote:

By the way, AFAIR AT&T sold only 2,7 million of 8,75 million iPhones in the first quarter. That's just 30 %.

Since the iPhone only comes out once a year, it seems to me that you need to account for an entire year of sales to get an accurate picture of which countries and carriers are selling.

Dick Applebaum on whether the iPad is a personal computer: "BTW, I am posting this from my iPad pc while sitting on the throne... personal enough for you?"

There is a clear trend of Apple adding more countries and more carriers within those countries and sometimes becoming surprisingly successful, eg in France, the UK and South Korea, while in the US the iPhone clearly hit a ceiling among AT&T customers (15 % of AT&T customers are already on iPhone) and AT&T's reputation went way down with Verizon's aggressive marketing campaign.

The only reason why AT&T's share will go up this and next quarter is because they get the launch privilege. If the US share stays above 40 % by the end of the year it will be because of a Verizon launch and inspite of AT&T.

Of course it will. Why it be going up with the iPhone coming online in more countries and more carriers around the world?

Quote:

The only reason why AT&T's share will go up this and next quarter is because they get the launch privilege.

Again, of course, which is why I stated that you have to look at the year of sales for a device that is released annually, not a single quarter. Note that you disagreed with my comment about looking at annual sales trends over quarterly trends but are proving my point with the statement quoted above.

Dick Applebaum on whether the iPad is a personal computer: "BTW, I am posting this from my iPad pc while sitting on the throne... personal enough for you?"

Of course it will. Why it be going up with the iPhone coming online in more countries and more carriers around the world?

But wasn't that the original point of contention? Is the prominence of the US market currently declining? Clearly it is.

Quote:

Again, of course, which is why I stated that you have to look at the year of sales for a device that is released annually, not a single quarter.

I don't follow that logic. If the release date was at different times of the year, then what you demand makes sense, but the way Apple releases, Q1-09 was just as far from the most recent release as Q1-10 was. Both quarters had the same attributes on the plateau of Apple's annual cycle.

Quote:

Note that you disagreed with my comment about looking at annual sales trends over quarterly trends

If you can provide meaningful annual figures, I'd welcome them. But since you did not offer any other figures, your remark seemed more of a way to disregard the results of Q1, no?

Quote:

...but are proving my point with the statement quoted above.

Am I? If you want to compare yearly figures, you would have to calculate trailing twelve months figures for each quarter, ie 12 months to Dec'08, 12 months to Mar'09 etc.. Otherwise you would only have 2 figures to compare: calendar 2008 and calendar 2009, which is mightly little data to compile a stat with.

So what's wrong with quarters? Everybody is using quarters. I wouldn't compare launch to non-launch quarters, but equal quarters can and must be compared. And any way you slice it, AT&T share has gone down from about 45 % to about 33 %.

Maybe I'm just getting you wrong. In your opinion, what are the meaningful data points regarding AT&T's share? Do they show a decline or not?

But wasn't that the original point of contention? Is the prominence of the US market currently declining? Clearly it is.

Of course it is, but it's not a US or ATT& v International situation. The US and AT&T are still the largest consumer base, by a long shot than any other single country or AT&T. That is what is relevant.

Quote:

I don't follow that logic. If the release date was at different times of the year, then what you demand makes sense, but the way Apple releases, Q1-09 was just as far from the most recent release as Q1-10 was. Both quarters had the same attributes on the plateau of Apple's annual cycle.

If you can provide meaningful annual figures, I'd welcome them. But since you did not offer any other figures, your remark seemed more of a way to disregard the results of Q1, no?

You puledl a single quarter that is 1/2 to 3/4 through a release cycle when other carriers outside the US came on board with the iPhone for the first time and stated, "By the way, [...] AT&T sold only 2,7 million of 8,75 million iPhones in the first quarter. That's just 30 %." as if that single quarter is representative of the entire year of iPhone sales or a trend. You're stating the truth, but you aren't being truthful.

YoY quarterly sales show a trend, but you pulled a single quarter to say that AT&T is falling away from the initial sales back in 2007. Sure, of course they are, but that has no barring on the important of AT&T and the US as the single most important customer base to Apple then and now. Name one other country or carrier that is selling more iPhones than the US or AT&T. Nada, so you pulling a single wonky data point that is being compared to no other.

The only logical metrics are taking the stats from every quarter the current iPhone was sold in and then dividing by four to get an accurate percentage of how AT&T did with this current iPhone or taking YoY quarters to show a trend. How can you say these are less accurate than simply taking a single quarter or an annually released product? It makes no sense.

Dick Applebaum on whether the iPad is a personal computer: "BTW, I am posting this from my iPad pc while sitting on the throne... personal enough for you?"

What people don't realize about Apple's launch figures for the iPhone: Those millions are what Apple delivered to carrier partners, not necessarily what end customers bought. Even if stock is tight after the launch weekend, there are still several 100.000 units in store somewhere.

Most of the Apple iDevices sold so well that store stock was near zero. The original iPhone was probably the sole exception because of its high price, but even there, the stock level wasn't very high.

For the iPad, for example, you couldn't find one in a store for weeks (or more), so stock was zero. The iPhone 3GS was certainly the same way.

"I'm way over my head when it comes to technical issues like this"Gatorguy 5/31/13

I think we're getting a bit off course. You have clarified that you don't disagree with what I said, so let me do the same: I was not trying to show that a single other country is getting more important for Apple than the US and I was not implying that 30 % is the annual share. Acceptable? ;-)

...and as a bonus, because I just spent the time to compile the data, here's the trailing twelve months figures for the most recent quarters.

Most of the Apple iDevices sold so well that store stock was near zero. The original iPhone was probably the sole exception because of its high price, but even there, the stock level wasn't very high.

"Near zero" being a few hundred thousand when you ship to tens of thousands of outlets all over the world.

Quote:

For the iPad, for example, you couldn't find one in a store for weeks (or more), so stock was zero.

Um no, you just had to make a reservation and wait for a week or so, depending on which device you wanted. There were usually at least some configurations available (16, 32 or 64 GB).

Quote:

The iPhone 3GS was certainly the same way.

AFAIR it was sold out in half of the US Apple Stores. There was no such general claim for AT&T stores or international channels.

Quote:

Originally Posted by solipsism

And Apple isn't like other companies, for as long as I can remember they report on items SOLD, not items SHIPPED.

Like any other company, Apple has to report what they sold, and that is what they sold to the people who payed them, their retail or carrier partners, unless they were direct sales in Apple Stores or the online Apple Store. This is called "Sell-in".

"Sell-through" means "sold to consumers, either by yourself or your retail partners". Sell-through figures are optional, and indeed Tim Cook started providing some for the iPhone in late 2008. However, sell-through is not in the press releases and fiscal reports of Apple, and it's not what usually gets bandied about.

What people don't realize about Apple's launch figures for the iPhone: Those millions are what Apple delivered to carrier partners, not necessarily what end customers bought. Even if stock is tight after the launch weekend, there are still several 100.000 units in store somewhere.

I thought Apple's numbers were based on sold, not shipped to carrier partners. In other words, actual activated phones.

Won't take long to sell 3M IPHONE 4s as many people are up for renewal. New 'facechat' feature will encourage parents to give IPHONES to their kids (more business for APPLE, Steve jobs is the greatest marketer in the world.) Don't be surprised if 3m doesn't satisfy the intial demand.

I have been reading a lot on forums about the Iphone-4 and it is very evident that this is going to be a record-smashing sales hit. Because of the huge press that Apple got from the "lost Iphone", a lot of people that may have had only a casual interest in Apple's latest creation are now wanting this phone. The NBC affiliate station where I live actually was following engadget's blog on the air during Steve's WWDC keynote as it was taking place during our mid-day newscast. I honestly cannot think of any item in recent history that has so many people, with such a large demographic, excited about it's release. I mean, this is truly like Christmas for many adults. Younger kids will be getting the Iphone hand-me-downs, or even new phones, due to the Facetime feature. When the younger ones are ready to buy their own phones, they will probably purchase an Iphone, not to mention many, many Mac computers and iPads. The Halo effect is going to only increase as long as Apple continues to make desirable products and gives incredible customer service.

As for the Android phones, most hardware manufactures do not make other computer devices for people to purchase due to a possible halo effect. Netbooks and tablets will soon show up, but brand loyalty will be low. Moto-Droid users may buy an HTC or Archos tablet. As long as Apple continues to give the consumer a great user experience, that happy consumer will only have Apple as their choice if they want other products with similar quality.

the new iphone could be sold from lost store underwater and still BE the the all time top selling smart phone

IT IS A two way VIDEO PHONE no just a voice phone .,
it also sports 3 or 4 more great things

THIS dick tracey style video phone just smashed all other phones ....

android is 5 yrs behind now ...

and apple/ATT lowered the price of the phone..overall that is .

the ipad is next with video calling

and nano >>> mbp will soon follow

apple users will be super connected to each other and the world

any great news item or elected official gaffe will now be streamed live from some bodies iphone 4 !!!!

I doubt it. The article indicates that Apple appears to be on track with producing enough iPhones to roughly equal the highest selling quarter.

The problem with the iPad is that A.) Apple had no historical data on which to base manufacturing forecasts, and B.) availability of the large 10" IPS display was constrained (Apple even second-sourced the part).

For the iPhone, I'm guessing that availability of the "Retina Display" panel will be the limiting factor.

With iPhone revenue so much of Apple's bottom line, I will put my trust in Apple's senior management team that they know what they're doing. After all, I'm a longtime AAPL shareholder and they have consistently shown an ability to increase shareholder value.

No sense in me playing armchair CEO. It is unlikely that I would do any better than Steve.

What do you say now cvaldes?? This phone is going to smash the results of previous iPhones.