HANDICAPPING THE HEISMAN RACE: The race for the 2012 Heisman Trophy is officially down to three finalists: Notre Dame's Manti Te'o, Texas A&M's Johnny Manziel and Kansas State's Collin Klein. But who will come home with the hardware Saturday night? Our Big 12 beat writer Chuck Carlton takes a look at each candidate's case for the trophy.

The only Heisman suspense left by Saturday may be
whether a certain Texas A&M quarterback is introduced as Johnny Manziel or
simply Johnny Football.

As expected, Manziel was one of three finalists for the Heisman announced
Monday, along with Notre Dame senior linebacker Manti Te’o and Kansas State
senior quarterback Collin Klein.

“I’m overwhelmed by this tremendous honor of representing Texas A&M, the
12th Man and all my teammates in New York,” Manziel said in a statement released
by the school.

“This is a dream come true for me, and I know it’s a credit to all my coaches
and teammates. I definitely wouldn’t be a Heisman finalist without my teammates
and coaches.”

Based on the numbers from straw polls and stat-crunchers and odds-makers,
Manziel enters the week as a significant favorite to become the second A&M
player and the first freshman ever to receive college football’s most
prestigious award. He could become the eighth Heisman winner to play in the
AT&T Cotton Bowl Classic.

“I’m really confident that he’s going to win the Heisman by a comfortable
margin,” said HeismanPundit.com’s Chris Huston. The straw poll that his website
runs in conjunction with CBS Sports gave Manziel eight of 11 first-place votes
for a comfortable lead over Te’o in a relatively small sample size. But it has
successfully predicted the last five Heisman winners and called the top seven in
last year’s voting.

Stiffarmtrophy.com, which aggregates publicly revealed ballots, has obtained
56 of 928 so far, with 35 first-place votes to Manziel for a solid lead.

Sports books shifted betting lines dramatically to Manziel last week with at
least one having odds of 1-6 for him winning the Heisman. A similar move
preceded Robert Griffin III’s Heisman win last season.

Manziel had produced huge numbers in his first college season with 4,600
yards total offense. He broke Archie Manning’s SEC record for single-game total
offense and Cam Newton’s mark for single-season yardage, the latter in just 12
games. Manziel was named the SEC offensive player of the year Monday.

Huston, who ran the successful Heisman campaigns of Carson Palmer and Matt
Leinart, pointed to a Manziel-led upset of No. 1 Alabama last month. Manziel
recorded 345 yards total offense in the 29-24 win.

“It gave credibility to the numbers that Manziel put up over the course of
the year,” Huston said.

Follow Chuck Carlton on Twitter at @ChuckCarltonDMN.

Johnny Manziel, Texas A&M, QB, freshman

By the numbers: Manziel has put together one of the most
impressive offensive seasons by any SEC quarterback, led alone a freshman.
Manziel set the SEC single-season total offense record and ranks second
nationally at 383.33 yards per game. He’s just the fifth Bowl Subdivision player
to throw for 3,000 yards and run for 1,000 in the same season.

Why he will win: Every Heisman winner needs a moment. Manziel
picked his well. With a CBS national TV audience watching, he led a road upset
of No. 1 Alabama. The performance validated all the numbers and built hype while
other contenders stumbled.

Why he won’t: A freshman has never won the Heisman and his
numbers weren’t great in losses to Florida and LSU. None of that really matters,
though. No criticism has really stuck.

Bottom line: Barring a huge upset, Manziel will join John
David Crow as an Aggie with the Heisman in a stunning three-month rise to
prominence.

Manti Te’o, Notre Dame, LB, senior

By the numbers: The emotional leader of the nation’s top
scoring defense, Te’o finished the regular season with 103 tackles, just the
second Notre Dame player ever to produce 100 tackles for three straight seasons.
Then factor in seven interceptions, the most by a Bowl Subdivision linebacker
since 2000, and add 5.5 tackles for loss, two fumble recoveries and 1.5
sacks.

Why he will win: Te’o is the best player on the No. 1 team,
which historically carries some cache cachet with voters. As Notre Dame’s stock
has risen, so has Te’o’s. A scholar-athlete, he brings a compelling life story,
overcoming personal tragedy. Don’t underestimate the clout of a Notre Dame
candidate with Midwest and East voters.

Why he won’t: A defensive player hasn’t won since Michigan’s
Charles Woodson in 1997 and he returned kicks and played a little receiver. The
numbers for Te’o are very good but not necessarily great.

Bottom line: He should be the runner-up and probably has his
eyes already focused on a certain crystal football next month.

Collin Klein, Kansas State, QB, senior

By the numbers: A dual-threat quarterback every bit as
effective plowing for short yardage as throwing from the pocket, Klein’s big
numbers may be just winning. He is 22-5 as a starter. Klein, not a natural
thrower, still ranks fourth in the Big 12 in passing efficiency and fifth in
rushing (890 yards with 22 touchdowns). His 55 career rushing touchdowns are the
fourth most in Big 12 history, behind only Ricky Williams, Cedric Benson and
Eric Crouch. He was at his best in a demolition of West Virginia when he
accounted for seven TDs.

Why he will win: The offensive-minded Big 12 has produced two
Heisman-winning quarterbacks in the last four years. Klein’s blue-collar style
and work ethic will appeal to some voters. He’s a classic overachiever.

Why he won’t: Klein’s Heisman hopes took a huge hit in a 52-24
loss to Baylor on national TV when he threw three interceptions.

Bottom line: Klein’s candidacy was based in part on Kansas
State’s success. When the Wildcats lost badly, voters looked in a different
direction.

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