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There has been predictable crowing from the Tories this morning over a poll that puts Boris Johnson 8 points ahead of Ken Livingstone with just a week to go in the race. That’s not a completely crazy result on its own – as I said when YouGov reported just a 2 point lead on Monday “I fully expected the polls to have worsened for Livingstone” – and that’s what ComRes is reporting.

However, when you look at the breakdown by borough you get some unusual results that require a few leaps of the imagination.

Eh, you can’t really do that sort of thing with sub-samples of polls.
For a start, sub-samples involve tiny, tiny numbers of people. Of the ones you mention, the largest sample is Wandsworth, with 34 people. Even if this was a representative sample, the margin of error for 95% confidence would be ±16%. But as it’s a sub-sample, even this would be underestimating it – they’re not demographically representative or weighted as the overall sample is.

GuyM

Exactly, the results of the research only applies to the entire sample within the confidence limits and not sub-sections of it.

If you wanted to investigate the views of residents of Wandsworth you’d need to set up a new representative sample within the agreed confidence limits and test again.

Carl

Agree with both the above. Some wishful thinking going on in this blogpost. Sadly the underlying picture seems to be a Boris lead of 5-6 points.

GuyM

In addition the weighting used across the pan London sample would need to be ammended for a different population base i.e. Wandsworth.

Thus you can make no valid assumptions from sub-sections of the poll at all.

My gut feel is that Boris is ahead – but not by that much. I’ve a feeling that there are a number of people who like the Boris image and say they’re going to vote for him, but who won’t bother. A big worry for Labour has to be the very low polling for the Lib Dems and especially the Greens – most of whom might be assumed to have Ken as second preference. UKIP’s vote will almost all go to Boris; if they do as well as some are predicting, that could prove crucial.

The writer needs to learn about polling before writing such a stupid article.

Amber Star

Okay, maybe sub-samples are not relevant but Mark Ferguson may not be entirely wrong. This poll could be an outlier, or even a ‘rogue’ poll.

There’s a YouGov poll due fairly soon, so that may confirm or contradict with the ComRes.

Personally, I think Ken will win. Boris is depending on Labour voters choosing him. On the day, I think ‘Labour for Boris’ voters may decide not to vote or even demonstrate some Party loyalty by switching to Ken at the 11th hour.

postageincluded

Boris’s biggest headache will be getting his luke-warm Labour supporters to make the walk to the polling station. I’m praying for rain.

Amber Star

Okay, maybe sub-samples are not relevant but Mark Ferguson may not be entirely wrong. This poll could be an outlier, or even a ‘rogue’ poll.

There’s a YouGov poll due fairly soon, so that may confirm or contradict with the ComRes.

Personally, I think Ken will win. Boris is depending on Labour voters choosing him. On the day, I think ‘Labour for Boris’ voters may decide not to vote or even demonstrate some Party loyalty by switching to Ken at the 11th hour.