The UK Independence Party is on track to win a decisive victory in the Stoke-on-Trent Central by-election, polling six points ahead of its main rival, the Labour Party.
A poll conducted by Leave.eu quizzing more than 4,000 constituents in the Midlands city has found support for UKIP stands at 39 per cent, against the incumbent Labour Party’s 33 per cent. If correct, it will place UKIP’s leader Paul Nuttall in the House of Commons.

According to the poll, both the Conservative Party and the Liberal Democrats are trailing heavily at 11 per cent and 10 per cent respectively – the latter a significant rise from the 4.2 per cent the Lib Dems achieved at the last general election in 2015.

If the poll proves to be accurate, UKIP will have nearly doubled its voter base in the constituency, up from 22.7 per cent at the last general election, in which the party came second, while the Conservatives will have halved theirs.

“Conservative supporters seem to be breaking towards UKIP [while] Labour are losing support to both the Liberal Democrats and UKIP,” a leave.eu spokesman said in a press release.

That will give cheer to UKIP members who hope to see similar swings across the north at the next general election in 2020, handing them significant numbers of seats in the British parliament for the first time.

Turnout was predicted to be 33 per cent.

Leave.eu are confident of the results, pointing out that the only poll they have previously publicly released was on the night of the EU referendum, shortly after polls closed.

“The model predicted a 52 to 48 outcome and was within 0.2% of the final result,” they said, adding: “Similar techniques have been used in the US where Donald Trump’s presidential election victory was accurately predicted.”

A separate poll conducted by the organisation across the whole of England and Wales showed that support for the Conservative Party remains strong nationally, on 37 per cent, eleven points ahead of the Labour Party on 26 per cent.

The Liberal Democrats were in third place on 16 per cent, with UKIP reaping in 12 per cent across the two countries, leaving nine per cent for the remaining parties

( labour is so desperate there trying to raise a fuss as to if the UKIP candidate lives in the riding or not , even launching an electoral fraud investigation thru elections , if this is there only issue they must be in serious trouble )

Stoke-on-Trent Central by-election: Ukip leader Paul Nuttall reveals he has moved into city house

By PhilCorrigan | Posted: February 01, 2017

 Comments (24)

Ukip by-election candidate Paul Nuttall has revealed he has moved into a house in Stoke-on-Trent today - after questions were raised about whether he was living in the city.

The Ukip leader, who is standing in the Stoke-on-Trent Central by-election, put down the Penkhull house on his official nomination papers published yesterday, despite not residing there at the time.

But Mr Nuttall says he will be moving into the house in Oxford Street today, and will be staying there during the by-election campaign.

Questions were raised over the property after Channel 4 journalist Michael Crick tweeted pictures which appeared to show an empty house.

A Ukip spokesman said: “The flat was rented before close of nominations which was yesterday. Now he's formally a candidate and the campaign is underway Mr Nuttall finally has an opportunity to move in, which he will do tonight. Bedroom furniture is already in and rest is to follow.

Read more: Revealed: Final list of candidates for the Stoke-on-Trent Central by-election

“He plans to spend a lot of time in Stoke-on-Trent campaigning and will be using the flat as his base. If he's successful he will find a permanent home in the constituency."

A Stoke-on-Trent City Council spokesman said: "We follow guidance from the Electoral Commission which is the independent body which oversees how elections are administered, and are following their advice in relation to this matter."

Returning officers have to accept nominations at face value and do not investigate anything that appears on the papers. Once accepted and declared as valid the nomination cannot be challenged other than by way of an election petition after the election has taken place

The by-election will take place on February 23. Click here for a full list of candidates.

According to reports, the leader is considered a liability as Labour aims to keep its seat in Stoke Leon Neal/Getty Images

Labour by-election campaigners in Stoke are keeping Jeremy Corbyn away from voters because he is "not a plus on the doorstep", it has been claimed.

The party faces a tough battle in the heartland seat, where leader Paul Nuttall is hoping to become Ukip's second MP by defeating Labour candidate Gareth Snell.

Former shadow Business Secretary Clive Lewis, who resigned on Thursday over the Brexit vote, said Labour was "hanging on at the fingernails" in the Leave-favouring region.

A source told the Telegraph that Mr Corbyn is "not a plus on the doorstep, that's for certain". Mr Corbyn did visit the constituency at the end of January.

The Independent has approached Labour for comment.

Questioned by Andrew Marr on Sunday morning about Mr Corbyn's "catastrophic" favourability ratings, deputy Labour leader Tom Watson said: "Jeremy knows what he has to do to win an election. This is not the time for a leadership election. He got a second mandate.

"He is now the established leader of the Labour Party. It is his duty to lead the official opposition through a period of unprecedented economic uncertainty, and he will be tested in that.

"Winning by-elections is obviously a good thing for political parties. I don't know whether we're going to win these by-elections or not, the campaign teams on the ground are running a good campaign, we've got two good candidates. They're quietly confident that we'll get a good result."

The crucial contest in Stoke, to be held on 23 February, follows the resignation of senior Labour MP Tristram Hunt last month to become the director of the Victoria & Albert Museum in London.

At the 2015 general election Mr Hunt, the former shadow Education Secretary and well-known critic of the Labour leader, held onto the seat with a majority of 5,179. Ukip came second in the constituency, just 33 votes ahead of the Conservatives.

Ukip leader Paul Nuttall forced to move house over safety concerns

The 40-year-old Ukip leader Mr Nuttall was confirmed as the party’s candidate last month and has promised to raise issues the “establishment parties would prefer to brush under the carpet”.

Last Saturday Labour had dismissed suggestions the party had been exploring a collaboration with the Liberal Democrats in Stoke to avoid the Ukip leader gaining ground. The Guardian had claimed a senior figure from the leader’s office had asked an intermediary to probe a potential pact between the two parties.

It has also launched an apparent "attack ad" against Mr Nuttall, in another move that signifies he is considered a real threat.

Mr Corbyn tweeted the video about Mr Nuttall with the warning: "Voters of Stoke, if you value your NHS then don’t vote for this man who wants to sell it off #CarefortheNHS."

In the footage, MEP Mr Nuttall brands the NHS "a monolithic hangover from days gone by".

Labour's candidate Gareth Snell, pictured, was engulfed in a sexism row today after a series of tweets revealed he ranted at 'bitchy,' 'annoying' and 'stupid' women online

The tweets show Gareth Snell, who goes head-to-head with Ukip leader Paul Nuttall in this month's Stoke-on-Trent vote, used to post regular angry comments targeting women on TV.

He hit out at a 'speccy blonde girl' on the 2010 Apprentice as 'f***ing annoying, adding: 'Here's an idea for you, why don't you p*** off.'

During the following week's episode he posted another outburst of anger, writing on Twitter: 'Squabbling sour faced ladies on my TV. Is this the #apprentice or Loose Women.'

Mr Snell issued an apology today after his tweets came to light, insisting he now regrets posting them.

He also singled out women for criticism on other TV shows, including the X Factor.

The Labour candidate, a Staffordshire councillor, suggested the public should 'publicly rate' judge Dannii Minogue's talent and 'then we'd see how b***y she wants to be'.

While watching BBC Question Time he hit out at a 'stupid woman' who appeared on the show.

And he described journalist Janet Street-Porter as a 'polished turd,' adding: 'Shiny and Sh**'.

But he also took his Twitter rants off the sofa, mocking a woman on public transport for taking up two seats.

Mr Snell's opponents said the 'sexist' outbursts from the 'foul-mouthed young man' made him unfit to be MP for Stoke-on-Trent and said he had 'a lot of growing up still to do'.

Gareth Snell hit out at a 'speccy blonde girl' on the 2010 Apprentice as 'f***ing annoying, adding: 'Here's an idea for you, why don't you p*** off.' During the following week's episode he posted another outburst of anger, writing on Twitter: 'Squabbling sour faced ladies on my TV. Is this the #apprentice or Loose Women'

He described journalist Janet Street-Porter as a 'polished turd,' adding: 'Shiny and Sh**'

Ukip candidate Paul Nuttall, pictured, has also faced embarrassment on the campaign trail. Last week he failed to name the six towns of Stoke during an interview with a radio station named '6 Towns', while he also faces a police investigation into claims he broke electoral law by claiming he lived at an address in the Stoke constituency despite living 60-miles away in Merseyside at the time he submitted his nomination papers

'It's just the kind of thing I get day in day out on social media from the hard left – from both men and women – so maybe no one noticed. Maybe it's what they expect.

'No, of course sexism isn't the prerogative of the left, but the fact they claim to be the epitome of political correctness does rather when rankle when they let women down, as they so frequently do.'

After asking him for a response, Mr Snell apologised for the offensive tweets.

He told MailOnline: 'I regret these tweets. They were from years ago when I was tweeting along with TV programmes but nevertheless, I shouldn't have tweeted those comments and I apologise for the offence they have caused.'

It is not the first time Mr Snell's past comments have landed him in trouble.

Earlier in the campaign he faced a backlash after it emerged he had branded Brexit a 'pile of sh***'.

Gareth Snell also singled out women for criticism on other TV shows, including the X Factor. Mr Snell suggested the public should 'publicly rate' judge Dannii Minogue's talent and 'then we'd see how b***y she wants to be'

Gareth Snell also singled out women for criticism on other TV shows, including the X Factor. Mr Snell suggested the public should 'publicly rate' judge Dannii Minogue's talent and 'then we'd see how b***y she wants to be'

He described journalist Janet Street-Porter as a 'polished turd,' adding: 'Shiny and Sh**'

He also took his Twitter rants off the sofa, mocking a woman on public transport for taking up two seats

The local councillor Mr Snell showed his disdain for the outcome in a series of tweets, including one in September when he posted a poem reading: 'Soft Brexit, Hard Brexit, Massive pile of Sh**, Sloppy Brexit, Messy Brexit, Quit, Quit, Quit.'

During the referendum campaign, he also praised the way pro-EU politicians made their case and suggested he backed Turkey's bid to become a member.

Mr Snell has since insisted he will not try to block the triggering of Article 50, but criticised Theresa May's approach.

He faces a tough challenge from Mr Nuttall, who is hoping to take advantage of Stoke's overwhelmingly pro-Brexit electorate to beat pro-Remain Mr Snell.

It would deliver a major blow to Mr Corbyn because Labour has held the seat since the 1950s.

But Mr Nuttall has also faced embarrassment on the campaign trail.

Last week he failed to name the six towns of Stoke during an interview with a radio station named '6 Towns', while he also faces a police investigation into claims he broke electoral law by claiming he lived at an address in the Stoke constituency despite living 60-miles away in Merseyside at the time he submitted his nomination papers

( labour is now aiming for a tiny win , I guess at this point its all they could hope for )

Labour now believes it will win a narrow victory in the Copeland by-election

Trudy Harrison
Trudy Harrison, who is running for the Conservative Party in Copeland. @ToryPressNorth/Twitter

LONDON — Theresa May is set to visit Copeland this week with the Conservatives feeling increasingly confident of snatching the seat from Labour at next week's crucial by-election.

Tory candidate Trudy Harrison is currently odds-on to win the Cumbrian seat on Thursday, February 23. This is despite that the fact that Copeland has been in Labour's control since 1931.

But this time around the situation is different for Labour. Copeland is a quintessential "heartland" seat. It's a pro-Brexit, working-class, socially conservative stronghold, hundreds of miles away from metropolitan London.

Immigration is a huge concern here, while the area's dependence on the nearby Sellafield nuclear power station means that Jeremy Corbyn is viewed with at best suspicion and at worst with hostility. "We don't do Corbyn here," a local councillor told Business Insider when we visited the area in December.

Labour's newfound vulnerability here has the Tories feeling confident of inflicting a huge blow on Labour. It is pretty much unheard of for a governing party to gain a seat midway through Parliament — nevermind in an area that has been held by the main opposition for the best part of a century.

This is why the prime minister's upcoming visit could very well play a big part in determining the outcome next week.

"It's really 50/50," a source close to Labour's Copeland campaign told us on Wednesday.

"People think it'll swing with the local paper or May's visit."

May's visit is a clear indication that the Conservatives are pumping more energy and resources into this west Cumbrian seat than they ever have before. Tory candidates like Stephen Haraldsen who have stood in Copeland in the past have suffered from a lack of funding from the string-pullers in the Conservative Party HQ. Not this time.

Corbyn, John McDonnell, and a host of senior Labour figures have made the 300-mile trip to Copeland in recent weeks but it doesn't get much bigger than a visit from the prime minister.

Harrison, a former officer for the Copeland Borough Council, is doing battle with Gillian Troughton for the seat.

Troughton is a former ambulance driver with years of experience as a local councillor. Predictably, but wisely, she has put the NHS at the forefront of the campaign, with cuts to the local West Cumberland Hospital hospital a big issue for people in the area. She has also managed to maintain sufficient distance between the local campaign and Corbyn's national leadership, despite a number of visits to the area from the veteran socialist.

As Business Insider reported earlier this year, there was concern among Copeland Labour Party figures that close association with Corbyn could damage the party's chances of holding the seat, with Corbyn being a divisive figure with party members and the local public body alike.

"If it is an election on the NHS, we'll win. If it's an election on Corbyn, we're f----d," a former Labour MP told us.

But Troughton's success in keeping the local conversation focused on the NHS rather than Corbyn's leadership has those close to the campaign quietly confident of holding the seat.

"It'll be close (it always is), but we'll keep it. Virtually everything on the doorstep has been about health, with a little bit of nuclear and basically nothing on Brexit," a source working on the campaign told us. "A lot more positive than the doom and gloom some have been peddling."

Another source told us that the party expects to hold on to Copeland by a narrow margin of around 500 votes.

Meanwhile, in Stoke, where a by-election will take place on the same day, the party is feeling slightly more confident about victory. The same source told us that Labour estimates that it will see off UKIP's Paul Nuttall with a winning margin of around 5,000 people. Nuttall is the biggest name in the running but false claims he has made about losing close friends at the Hillsborough disaster has overshadowed his campaign this week.

Stoke-on-Trent Central and Copeland by-election polls and odds: Who will win?

Jeremy Corbyn and Gareth Snell on the campaign trail for the Stoke-on-Trent Central by-election
Jeremy Corbyn faces a big test to defend the two Labour constituencies Credit: Joe Giddens/PA

By Ashley Kirk
16 February 2017 • 12:11pm

Westminster is braced for a pair of crucial by-elections next week, with Jeremy Corbyn's Labour Party needing to hang onto two constituencies in its northern heartlands.

Both Stoke-on-Trent Central and Copeland will go to the polls on Thursday 23 February, following the resignations of Labour MPs Jamie Reed and Tristram Hunt.

Betting odds currently have Theresa May's Conservative Party as the favourite to take Copeland, while Labour is currently the most likely choice in Stoke-on-Trent Central, but it will face a challenge to fight off Ukip.

Stoke-on-Trent Central by-election

Labour's Tristram Hunt won Stoke-on-Trent Central with a vote share of 39.3 per cent in 2015 - 16.7 points higher than the second-placed party, Ukip.

This was the fifth consecutive fall in the Labour vote share, which has fallen consistently from 66.2 per cent that the party achieved when Tony Blair swept to power in 1997.

2015 saw the lowest vote share that the party had ever achieved since the constituency's creation in 1950. 12 out of 18 of its Westminster elections have seen Labour win more than 60 per cent of the vote.

Ukip's rise in Stoke-on-Trent Central was quick - increasing its vote share from 4.3 per cent in 2010 to 22.7 per cent in 2015. It first contested the constituency in 2005, when it gained 3.3 per cent of the vote.

The party fancies its chances in the constituency, known as "Brexit Central", and has fielded party leader Paul Nuttall.

Seven in ten people in the constituency voted for Brexit and, with Labour fielding a pro-Remain candidate, Ukip will be hoping to convert this anti-EU feeling into votes at the ballot box. However, Mr Nuttall has since faced criticism after he was forced to admit claims he lost close personal friends in the Hillsborough disaster are false.

Currently Labour is favourite to retain the Midlands constituency which has returned a Labour MP in every General Election it has ever had.

LONDON — Former UKIP leader Nigel Farage said on Friday that the result of the upcoming Stoke by-election will be "fundamental" to the future of the party — putting huge pressure on new leader Paul Nuttall to deliver a result.

Farage, who stepped down as leader last year and now serves as an MEP, was speaking at the UKIP spring conference in Bolton.

The prominent Brexiteer urged party members to do all they can to help his successor Paul Nuttall to take Stoke-on-Trent Central from Labour on Thursday as failure to do so could have huge ramifications for UKIP's future.

"I don't think anybody for one moment can underplay just how important and absolutely fundamental that by-election is for the futures of both the Labour Party and indeed UKIP," Farage said.

"It matters and it matters hugely. I know that Paul has had a very difficult week. Fighting by-elections is not much fun — it's a rough old game. I do believe that we are going to win this by-election."

Nuttall had up until recently been favourite to win the seat and become UKIP's second MP in Parliament. However, false claims that he lost personal friends at the Hillsborough disaster have dealt a boot to the stomach of his campaign, with Labour's Gareth Snell now favourite to win in a seat that has been Labour-controlled since the 1950s.

Farage went on to describe 2016 as a year of "political revolution" and said UKIP was the force that started Brexit, the election of Donald Trump, and the rise of populist politicians across western Europe. He said:

"2016 is one of those years that children will read about in history books. It was a year of political revolution in the UK. Huge political revolution in America and in December we saw the Italians get rid of their PM.

"The most remarkable thing about is it was all started by UKIP.

"There was some that think the revolution was nothing more than a blip and we'll all come back to our collective senses in the western
world. I have to tell you I am now absolutely certain that the political revolution of 2016 was just the beginning of something much bigger that's going to happen across the entire western world.

"What people care about is national identity and their community. People in this country and across the west are now beginning to see immigration as a far bigger issue than they even saw it in the referendum campaign.

"I don't know if 2017 is the year we see dramatic governmental changes in Europe or not but believe me radical change is coming and it's coming in the course of the next few years."

Farage warned the approximate 500 people in attendance that UKIP must not "move to the centre" of British politics and instead remain a radical force. "UKIP is a radical party or it is nothing," he said.

"There is a very important message for UKIP. A message UKIP needs to think about and act upon. This party went from nothing to being the
first party to win a national election to force a referendum and play a very important part in that campaign. UKIP We were prepared to think the unthinkable, to speak the unspeakable.

"We had guts, passion and we weren't afraid of criticism. That's why we succeeded."

"There are too many people in the UKIP who are urging UKIP to become mainstream... UKIP is a radical party or it is nothing. We need to be unafraid and bold in all that we do. We need to be leading the political conversation not trying to sound like the rest."

Here are some other key quotes from Farage's speech:
•"Mrs May is saying all the right things. It sounds great doesn't it. It's now over seven months since we voted in that referendum and what has happened so far: nothing."
•"My big worry is this. As Home Secretary, she [May] gave some tremendous speeches at party conferences about how she would bring down immigration. She failed as Home Secretary despite those good words."
•"We've seen the death of the Labour Party in Scotland and I sense that the Labour Party is losing a sense of purpose in England and Wales right now."
•"Whatever Mr Corbyn's attributes may be, he isn't patriotic... He is miles away from working-class Britain and that's UKIP's opportunity."

The UKIP conference continues on Friday, with leader Nuttall scheduled to speak after lunch.

The police are now almost as busy as the candidates in what is fast-becoming the grubbiest by-election of modern times.

And we still have six days to go before the voters of Stoke Central choose their new MP.

Activists have been assaulted, posters have vanished or been vandalised and there have been numerous complaints of electoral misdemeanours.

Labour candidate in the Stoke-on-Trent by-election Gareth Snell (right) described his own leader, Jeremy Corbyn, (left) as an ‘IRA supporting friend of Hamas’ from ‘trendy North London’ who had never had ‘a proper job’

One far-Right independent candidate, a 78-year-old woman, has even been arrested on suspicion of stirring up racial hatred.

As if that was not enough of a distraction, both the front-runners have been busy wrecking their own campaigns with self-inflicted wounds.

Ukip’s Paul Nuttall, who is both local candidate and party leader, is still reeling after claiming that he lost ‘close friends’ in the 1989 Hillsborough tragedy and then admitting that he did not.

Meanwhile, Labour campaigners have had to lock away their gaffe-prone candidate, Gareth Snell, after his loose-fingered Twitter past came back to haunt him.

Stoke-on-Trent happens to be the most pro-Brexit city in the UK. A whopping 70 per cent of voters chose to leave the EU last year

First, it was revealed that he had described his own leader, Jeremy Corbyn, as an ‘IRA supporting friend of Hamas’ from ‘trendy North London’ who had never had ‘a proper job’.

He has since had to explain away an excruciating series of sexist messages which make Donald Trump look more of a feminist than Germaine Greer. Sample tweet: ‘Janet Street Porter is a polished t**d — shiny and s***’.

In others, he has dismissed the panel of ITV’s Loose Women as ‘squabbling sour faced ladies’, remarked that Deirdre on Coronation Street needs ‘a good slap’ and dismissed one ‘f******* annoying’ Apprentice contestant as a ‘speccy blonde girl’.

But his biggest mistake was to describe last year’s European referendum result as ‘a massive pile of s***’. For Stoke-on-Trent happens to be the most pro-Brexit city in the UK. A whopping 70 per cent of voters chose to leave the EU last year.

It also boasts another record which is giving Labour high command sleepless nights.

At the last general election, it had the lowest turnout in the land. Indeed, Stoke Central was the only place in Britain where less than half the electorate actually bothered to vote.

And right now Labour desperately needs its core vote more than ever. Historically, this solidly working-class West Midlands seat has loyally returned anything wearing a red rosette. But now, many Labour voters are about to part company with a party that, in their view, no longer shares their values having taken them for granted for so long.

Come Thursday, there is a strong possibility Stoke may elect a Ukip MP. And that would be a seismic moment in British politics. Pictured, UKIP leader Paul Nuttal

Stoke may be finally reversing the long decline in its famous ceramics industry, but so many areas remain neglected, boarded up or burned out. Shiny new projects like HS2 and the ‘Northern Powerhouse’ might boost morale in Birmingham and Manchester but, for many here in Stoke, they only add to the sense of being left behind.

And now many voters feel equally left behind by a middle-class metropolitan Labour cabal which fought to remain in the EU and is more interested in mocking Donald Trump than putting Stoke back on the map.

Last week’s outburst by Corbyn ally Paul Mason, late of the BBC, sums it up. Any Labour voters switching to Ukip in Stoke, he said, were ‘toe-rags’. He likened them to ‘the bloke who nicks your bike’.

That is why, come Thursday, there is a strong possibility Stoke may elect a Ukip MP. And that would be a seismic moment in British politics. It would be both a sign that Ukip has come of age as a credible parliamentary party and also a signal that, on its present course, Labour’s future as Britain’s principal opposition is in grave danger.

Last week’s YouGov poll showing Labour has fallen to third place behind the Tories and Ukip among blue-collar voters merely reinforces the point.

Whatever the result, we are already witnessing the death of something important: the tribal vote which has sustained Labour for so long.

And Thursday could deliver another historic result 170 miles away in another seat which has been Labour for as long as anyone can remember.

The vast Cumbrian constituency of Copeland, stretching from the hills of the Lake District to the Irish Sea, also goes to the polls. And the bookies’ favourite is a Tory unknown who joined the party only last year.

At a time in the electoral cycle when the Opposition should be causing mayhem for a Government with a tiny majority, the reverse is true.

And having spent a week travelling all over both these constituencies, it is not hard to identify the root cause of Labour’s woes: Jeremy Corbyn.

Labour supporters always try to blame the ‘Right-wing media’ for stirring up non-existent party troubles and demonising their leader.

But it was two Labour MPs who created this epic mess when they decided they could no longer face serving under Mr Corbyn.

Right now Labour desperately needs its core vote more than ever. Historically, this solidly working-class West Midlands seat has loyally returned anything wearing a red rosette. Pictured, Labour candidate Gareth Snell

And both have now abandoned the Labour benches for plum jobs elsewhere. Both were resolutely opposed to the election of Jeremy Corbyn as party leader.

It is clear that much of the electorate — and both Labour candidates in these by-elections — share that view.

In more than 25 years of covering by-elections, I am pushed to recall twin election counts to match this pair.

It’s true that we occasionally exaggerate some of these contests when they are little more than a snapshot of regional concerns. But these two are different, particularly in Stoke.

I can’t think of a by-election in which the atmosphere has been so toxic, nor one in which so many candidates are treated by minders like imbecilic incendiary devices.

It is currently easier to ascertain the travel movements of the Queen than those of Labour candidate Gareth Snell. His minders won’t even tell the Guardian where he is to be found.

I finally catch him in the pouring rain outside the Royal Stoke Hospital talking to a local radio station and raise the subject of those dreadful tweets.

A Ukip win would be a sign it has come of age as a credible parliamentary party and also a signal that, on its present course, Labour’s future as Britain’s principal opposition is in grave danger

He deals with it well enough. ‘I am sure a university is drawing up a social media course using me as a prime example of what not to do,’ he admits, adding that he is deeply embarrassed and has apologised to his wife.

‘She was very clear I shouldn’t have said those things,’ he says. ‘I feel I have let her down. I’m sorry.’

It is not clear whether he also apologised to the ‘IRA supporting friend of Hamas’ during Mr Corbyn’s fleeting visit to the seat earlier in the campaign.

So, has he now deleted every last tweet? ‘There’s one candidate that’s tried to delete his past,’ he counters, ‘and that’s Paul Nuttall.’

It’s equally hard to pin down Mr Nuttall, too. For two days this week, he simply vanished from the campaign trail, citing his duties as party leader.

It is currently easier to ascertain the travel movements of the Queen than those of Labour candidate Gareth Snell (left). His minders won’t even tell the Guardian where he is to be found

But he admits this was mainly to do with the Hillsborough disaster, that dreadful 1989 FA Cup semi-final in Sheffield which he attended, aged 12, with his father.

He has now had to apologise for a statement on his website in which he claimed that he lost ‘close friends’ that day.

Not true, it turns out. The blame has since been pinned on the press officer who issued the faulty statement.

But what has hurt Mr Nuttall much more is the rumour that he was never at Hillsborough in the first place, a suggestion he has vehemently denied.

For a Liverpool FC season-ticket holder like himself, to lie about such a thing would be heresy of the worst kind. So what does he have to say?

It’s equally hard to pin down Mr Nuttall, too (pictured). For two days this week, he simply vanished from the campaign trail, citing his duties as party leader

After two days in search of the Ukip leader, I am finally invited to wait on a street corner in Stoke and then escorted to meet him at a secret hotel location. He seems drained and genuinely subdued by the whole experience.

‘This has been absolutely the lowest point of my political career,’ he says softly, explaining that he has been in Liverpool having ‘conversations with people who matter’. He won’t say what was discussed, though some members of his family have urged him to abandon politics for good.

‘But I’m going to win this. It’s made me more determined.’

He talks me through his boyhood memories of the day he got in a van with his father and uncles and drove to Sheffield ‘over the Woodhead Pass’, of sitting in the relative safety of the upper tier of the Leppings Lane grandstand, of his father realising something was badly wrong and saying: ‘We’re off.’

Mr Nuttal has had allegations thrown at him this week, namely that he has also fabricated a PhD and a previous career as a professional footballer. Both errors, he says, were due to members of staff overstating the facts

The fact that someone is now suggesting he has made it up has, he says, been ‘asbolutely awful’.

So awful, indeed, that he chuckles over some of the other allegations thrown at him this week, namely that he has also fabricated a PhD and a previous career as a professional footballer.

Both errors, he says, were due to members of staff overstating the facts.

He explains that he was a schoolboy goalkeeper for the Tranmere Rovers youth team — he recalls being humiliated by a Manchester United side featuring a teenage Paul Scholes — and says he was halfway through his PhD on inter-war politics on Merseyside when he switched careers.

‘Once I finish politics, I want to go back and finish it. I’ve never called myself Dr Nuttall.’

So why are his minders treating him like someone from a witness protection scheme? In addition to the odd hurled egg, he says he has had to move out of his original constituency digs after two break-in attempts. ‘The returning officer said: “It’s best you don’t stay there”.’

Meanwhile, the police have received a complaint that Mr Nuttall committed an electoral offence by listing this same property as his home when he was not living in it.

The paperwork is certainly piling up for the cops as the campaigns report each other’s dirty tricks. The most memorable, so far, is the Labour campaigner who was caught warning Muslim voters that they face eternal damnation if they vote Liberal Democrat.

Labour campaigner Navid Hussain has been circulating text messages among Stoke’s Islamic community saying that because Labour is in danger from the ‘anti-Islamic’ forces of Ukip, it is every Muslim’s religious duty to vote Labour.

A vote for the Lib Dems, he goes on, will merely help ‘the enemies of Islam’.

‘Will you be able to answer for this in the grave?’ asks Mr Hussain, who boasts a photograph of himself hugging Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn.

Labour campaigners have had to lock away their gaffe-prone candidate, Gareth Snell, after his loose-fingered Twitter past came back to haunt him

To cap it all, the Liberal Democrat candidate happens to be Muslim, too. Dr Zulfiqar Ali, a mild-mannered consultant cardiologist and former councillor, is bemused because Mr Hussain had originally offered to campaign for him. What also irks him is that several local businesses had erected Lib Dem posters only to take them down again after threats from people he believes to be Labour supporters. ‘They are clearly rattled,’ he says.

The Lib Dems are expected to enjoy a rise in their vote here. This may be Brexit territory, but the 30 per cent who voted Remain last year have nowhere else to go. The picture is more confused for the Tories whose candidate, Jack Brereton, became a local councillor at 19.

Labour’s weakening grip on Stoke is reflected by the fact that, at the age of 25, Mr Brereton is now in charge of the city’s £500 million regeneration budget and a senior player in the Independent/Tory/Ukip coalition which runs the city council.

Stoke-born and bred, he is clearly destined for higher things: Ukip’s Paul Nuttall calls him ‘super-impressive’. Yet Tory high command has not despatched big battalions to help.

Only a cynic, surely, would suggest that Conservative national HQ would like to see a Ukip victory here.

I head out to Stoke’s vast Bentilee estate, a place where Union flags and the Cross of St George outnumber all political posters put together. Staunchly Labour in the past, it is a key Ukip battleground.

Meanwhile, the police have received a complaint that Mr Nuttall committed an electoral offence by listing this same property as his home when he was not living in it

Meanwhile, the police have received a complaint that Mr Nuttall committed an electoral offence by listing this same property as his home when he was not living in it

Once the biggest council estate in Europe, Bentilee now boasts a new record — the most Eurosceptic spot in Britain. While Stoke’s overall Leave vote in the referendum was 70 per cent, the Bentilee ward recorded a thumping 87 per cent.

Wandering its streets, I find the overwhelming response is ‘stuff the lot of them’. Nine in ten people refuse to waste their breath on the by-election subject. And each time the one in ten says ‘Ukip’.

Take Mark Bailey, 20, a stage builder who didn’t bother voting at the last election. He is voting Ukip this week ‘to get things changed’.

The Labour fatigue is similar in Copeland. Its main town, Whitehaven, was once a proud fishing and coal-mining community. Today, its main industry is servicing the Sellafield nuclear plant up the road. And Labour has the hurdle of explaining away Jeremy Corbyn’s historic belief that nuclear power should be abolished, even if he now accepts his party’s position in favour of it.

Copeland without nuclear power would be like Scotland without whisky. When you drive out to Sellafield and see this heavily-fortified monster — think Heathrow minus the planes — you grasp its importance to the whole region.

Come the end of the afternoon shift, there are so many vehicles pouring out of here that there are traffic jams for miles around.

The Labour candidate, Gillian Troughton, certainly gets it. At every public meeting, she insists that her party is wholly behind nuclear power. ‘No ifs, no buts,’ she says time and again.

As with Mr Snell, Labour initially tried to shield Mrs Troughton from the pesky Press. Then someone twigged that as a former hospital doctor and trained ambulance driver, it might be a good idea to let her loose. After all, Labour is fighting proposals to relocate much of the local hospital’s services to Carlisle, an hour’s drive away.

‘The most poignant moment of this campaign has been meeting a young lad who would have died without the A&E we have here,’ says Mrs Troughton as she hands out leaflets in the centre of town.

The Tory candidate, Trudy Harrison, is firmly opposed to the hospital move, too, but is focusing on better roads and support for the vast new nuclear plant due to go up alongside the existing one.

‘My Dad worked at Sellafield, my husband, brother and cousins are there,’ she says, adding that one of her four daughters is training to be a Sellafield electrician, too.

Ukip, the Lib Dems and Greens all have strong candidates but it’s a two-horse race. And Labour’s tribal vote is slipping here too.

In Whitehaven, the bookies give the Conservatives a narrow lead over Labour. Back in Stoke, they put Labour ahead of Ukip by a whisker. But anything could happen between now and Thursday.

The stakes are certainly high for Mr Nuttall. But they are higher still for Mr Corbyn. Defeat in these two seats and that trickle of Labour MPs already heading for the exit could become a flood. Where next?

A survey of voters is predicting a knife-edge result in the Stoke-on-Trent Central by-election.

The Google poll, carried out on The Sentinel's website over the past two weeks, suggests the election will be virtually a dead-heat between Labour and Ukip.

Around 1,000 voters in Stoke-on-Trent Central took part in the survey, with 26 per cent saying they would vote for Labour, and 25.8 per cent backing Ukip.

Beyond the two front-runners, 11.6 per cent of respondents said they would vote for the Conservatives, 4.1 per cent supported the Lib Dems and 2.3 per cent said they would vote for the Greens. Around 30 per cent said they would vote for another party or not vote at all.

But the almost identical levels of support enjoyed by Labour and Ukip suggests that turnout on the day will be crucial in determining the eventual winner.

Read more: Prime Minister Theresa May visits Stoke-on-Trent and says Brexit will be a 'real opportunity' for pottery firms

The survey predicts a very close result.

Participants in the survey were also asked about which issues would influence their vote in the by-election.

The NHS was clearly seen as the most important issue, with 54.3 per cent of respondents saying it would influence their vote – far more than for any other issue.

Immigration was the second most important issue, with 36.8 per cent of voters listing it as influential – although among Ukip voters it was almost twice as high at 64 per cent.

And despite Stoke-on-Trent voting heavily in favour of leaving the EU in last year's referendum, Brexit was only seen as the third most important issue, just ahead of the economy.

Read more: How Stoke-on-Trent and Staffordshire voted in the EU Referendum

John Caulkin, chairman of Eaton Park Residents' Associaition, agrees that the NHS is the top election issue in the constituency.

He said: “I think the NHS is absolutely crucial. It's something we've had in this country for a long time, it's something that we all use, and it's not something that other countries have got.

“But I think another important issue is the city centre. That is something our residents' association has raised with the council before. I'm glad they've closed down the Burton Stores pub but now you're seeing people begging there at 9am."

Local health service campaigner Ian Syme believes the NHS will remain an important issue for future elections in North Staffordshire.

He said: “I'm not surprised at all that the NHS is the most important issue for voters. But it's closely linked with the issue of social care, which is also under a lot of pressure at the moment because of funding cuts.

“I think it's an especially big issue in Stoke-on-Trent because our hospital doesn't have any others nearby that can help relieve pressure on it.

Read more: NHS and social care 'key issues' when voters head to polls in Stoke-on-Trent Central by-election

“It might be seen that it's more of an issue at the moment because we're in the winter period, but the local NHS is creaking in the summer as well, so it's a year-round issue."

The poll was conducted by Google Surveys on The Sentinel's website, served randomly to readers who were asked to name the constituency they could vote in.

The by-election takes place on Thursday. For a full list of candidates, click here

A historic victory in the Copeland by-election tomorrow is “within our grasp”, a senior Cabinet minister has said.

The Conservatives plan to flood the Cumbrian seat with 20 MPs and activists on Thursday in a bid to win seat from Labour for first time since it was created in 1983.

Labour MP Jamie Reed represented Copeland since 2005, taking over from Jack Cunningham who had held the seat for 35 years from 1970. Labour has held the seat and its forebear Whitehaven since 1935.

Mr Reed's majority has halved from 5,157 in 2005 to just 2,564 in 2015.

Sir Michael Fallon, the defence secretary, on a visit to the seat – which is vacant after Labour MP Jamie Reed quit – said: “It is within our grasp, but it is a hard ask for a government to win a by-election.”

The comments are the clearest demonstration yet that the Tories are confident they can win the seat, which was visited by Prime Minister Theresa May last week.

Sir Michael – who was visiting the seat with former Chancellor George Osborne on Monday - paid tribute to the Tories’ candidate Trudy Harrison, who he described as “a true local champion”.

The Tories are now 1/3 odds on favourite to win the seat from Labour.

Local Conservative MP Andrew Stephenson, who is organising the campaign, is running an operation dubbed “pledge to vote” to contact Tory supporters and ensure they vote on Thursday.

Separately, Momentum, the far left Labour campaign group, said it had re-launched its Calling for Corbyn phone canvassing website to target voters in Stoke and Copeland.

Ken Loach, who won a Bafta for his film I Daniel Blake last weekend, also lent his support to the by-election campaigns by organising community screenings of the film on council estates in Stoke-on-Trent and Copeland,

Emma Rees, National Organiser for Momentum said: “Momentum has mobilised on a huge scale for the Stoke and Copeland by-elections.

"We have used innovative campaigning techniques to help our people-powered movement to support Labour to defeat the Tories and UKIP in Copeland and Stoke.”

Gareth Snell was elected with 7,853 votes, ahead of UKIP's 5,233 votes.

Brexit battle

Labour had held both seats since their creation. The by-elections were sparked by the resignations of two former Labour frontbenchers, Tristram Hunt and Jamie Reed.

In Copeland, Labour's majority was just 2,564 but it is unusual for an opposition party to lose a seat to the governing party in a by-election.

Professor John Curtice, of Strathclyde University, said the Copeland result was the best by-election performance by a governing party in terms of the increase in its share of the vote since January 1966.

Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn said the party's "message was not enough to win through in Copeland" but hailed victory in Stoke as a "decisive rejection of Ukip's politics of division and dishonesty".

He added: "Labour will go further to reconnect with voters and break with the failed political consensus."

Gareth Snell and Jeremy CorbynImage copyright Getty Images
In Stoke-on-Trent, UKIP had hoped to capitalise on voters' leanings towards Brexit - the area voted strongly to leave the EU in June.

But in his victory speech, Mr Snell said voters had "chosen the politics of hope over the politics of fear".

"This city will not allow ourselves to be defined by last year's referendum and we will not allow ourselves to be divided by the result," he said.

Stoke-on-Trent Central results in full

Gareth Snell, Labour 7,853

Paul Nuttall, UKIP 5,233

Jack Brereton, Conservative 5,154

Zulfiqar Ali Lib Dems, 2,083

Adam Colclough, Greens, 294

Barbara Fielding, Independent, 137

The Incredible Flying Brick, Official Monster Raving Loony Party, 127

David Furness, British National Party Local People First, 124

Godfrey Davies Christian People's Alliance, 109

Mohammed Akram, Independent, 56

He said the result was "a victory for the whole Labour Party and Labour movement".

But Labour's share of the vote was 37% - slightly down on the 39.3% it got in 2015.

UKIP got 24.7% of the vote and the Conservatives 24.4% - both slightly higher than their 2015 vote shares.

The Conservative candidate, Jack Brereton, came third with 5,154 votes.

Speaking to journalists after the result, Mr Nuttall said UKIP was "not going anywhere" and insisted the party's "time would come".

"There's a lot more to come from us," he said.

"We are not going anywhere, I'm not going anywhere."

Voter turnout was low in Stoke at 38% but 51.35% in the west Cumbrian seat of Copeland.

Polling day coincided with Storm Doris hitting the country with heavy rain and strong winds

It is a good time to be a Conservative and a bad one to be a Labour or UK Independence party supporter. The result in Thursday’s poll in Copeland, Cumbria is a historic victory for the Tories: for only the fourth time since the second world war, a party of government has seized a seat in a by-election.

The opposition Labour party has been humiliated: it has lost a constituency that it held for more than 70 years. The unpopularity of its leader, Jeremy Corbyn, proved too powerful, as activists confirmed what has long been suspected: he is toxic on the doorstep.The Tories not only gained Copeland but did so with a comfortable majority — almost the same as Labour’s at last year’s general election. It was the best by-election performance for a governing party since 1966. The trends also give Conservatives cause for celebration too.

Labour voters are defecting to them, not Ukip, after the Brexit vote. Their campaigning machine is in decent shape — Labour threw everything it had at this seat and still lost. And focusing almost exclusively on the National Health Service, as Labour did at the last general election, is not enough to convince wavering voters.Labour’s pain in Copeland is somewhat counterbalanced by the relief of holding on to Stoke-on-Trent Central — two losses would have been cataclysmic.

This is a heartland seat and retaining it will abate fears that the party’s core vote has disappeared. Although Labour may be under siege in parts of Britain that voted heavily to leave the EU, it seems the Tories, not Ukip, are the threat. Related article

The “people’s army” has been a successful pressure group but it has consistently thrown away chances to win parliamentary elections. Visiting the constituency, I was struck by the shambolic state of Ukip’s operations. Paul Nuttall, the party’s leader, was almost pushed into third by the Conservatives, who barely cared about the seat until the past few days.

For a governing party to gain 2 per cent without really trying is surprising. Senior Tories are privately very pleased with the Stoke results. Ukip’s best days appear to be behind it. Since last year’s Brexit vote the party has been adrift. Its message of ensuring “Brexit means exit” is inapt, as voters are happy to entrust Prime Minister Theresa May with that task. Mr Nuttall’s leadership will be questioned but there is no one else better placed to lead the party.

He will probably remain in place, stand in further by-elections and lose again, while his party drifts into a fringe interest.Labour, however, faces a stark choice about how it interprets these results. It can either wrap itself in the comfort blanket of the Stoke victory and blame Tony Blair’s Brexit speech for losing Copeland. Or it can confront the fact that its supporters are floating away to the Conservatives and that there is something rotten at its core — the party leadership. Based on Mr Corbyn’s performance as opposition leader to date, any criticism will be swept aside.

Like a frog in a pot of water that is coming to the boil, Labour is not dead yet — but it is rapidly reaching the point at which it will be too late to change course.The Brexit vote may have been a political earthquake but these by-elections show that the UK’s traditional political alliances have not been entirely reset. What we have seen on Thursday is the flipping of a Labour-Conservative marginal seat thanks to an unpopular leader, and a Labour stronghold remaining a Labour stronghold. Too much should not be read into these results but the old tribes are still standing and the Conservatives are still the natural party of government. Mrs May will be smiling at how British politics continues to play to her favour.

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