Pennsylvania will see an interesting winter with El Nino now knocking at the door. The wettest winter came off the 2009-2010 Moderate El Nino and most moderate to strong El Nino patterns bring the snow but not always cold weather with it. Weaker El Nino's tend to bring drier and somewhat cooler conditions. The real key to this winter may come down to the exact track of the jet stream and this area could be in the battleground. Lake Effect off Lake Erie will be popping good in Late November and December.

HOW EL NINO WORKS

After a long 4-year absence of El Nino we here at Liveweatherblogs.com are very confident we are heading into a weak to moderate El Nino. A weak to moderate El Nino for the area means a variety of winter weather. We will see wild swings in temperatures throughout the winter.

We have been in a neutral pattern since May of 2012 and before that we were in a La Nina period from June 2010 to April of 2012. The odds are in favor of an El Nino this winter and the chart below indicates that it will start over spring and summer.

So we looked over the last 50 years of El Nino winters and 8 were weak El Nino's, 4 were a moderate El Nino and 7 years were classified as a strong El Nino. We are placing a good deal of our forecast on El Nino this winter simply due that we feel it will be a moderate to maybe strong event.

ALTOONA WINTER SUMMARY

We'll get a few summerlike days this winter esp. the first half of the winter. Expect the unexpected in this upcoming El Nino winter. Mild and sunny one week and chilly and wet the next. If you want variety in your winter weather this is the winter to follow. The winter will start warmer and drier than normal and end on the colder, wetter side in February maybe March.