Monday, January 9, 2006

Illinois - Land of Lincoln (who would likely be happier with the state's new U.S. Senator than his own party)

ILLINOIS - THE PRAIRIE STATE

Illinois is the 8th most Democratic state, voting 12.1% more Dem than the national average.

Based on voting records since 1992, Illinois is trending Democrat.Governor: Rod Blagojevich is running for reelection. While Illinois is solidly blue, Blagojevich may not be safe, as his approval ratings are down and he has been accused of corruption. Challenging him is State Treasurer Judy Barr Topinka. Blago currently leads Topinka, but will be watched closely, as Topinka is part of that increasingly endangered species Republicanus Noncrazius.

Other CandidatesRandy StufflebeamRich WhitneyScott Summers

Governor (incumbent running)

Polling Company

Date

Blagojevich

Topinka

Margin

Chicago Tribune

9/7-10

45%

33%

12%

Rasmussen

9/7

48%

36%

12%

Factor

Numbers

Raw Value

Weight

Factor

Poll Average

12 + 12

12

75%

9

Approval

44-52

-8

15%

1.2

Partisan leaning

42-24 DEM

-18

10%

1.8

Blagojevich will win by 9.6%

Senate: Senior Senator Dick Durbin is up for reelection in 2008 and junior Senator Barack Obama is up for reelection in 2010.House: District 6: Henry Hyde is retiring. Iraq war veteran Tammy Duckworth has won the Dem nomination; on the GOP side is State Sen. Peter Roskam. This district in the western Chicago burbs has been trending less Republican in recent years. Also in the running is Brian Costin.

House (open seat)

Pundit

Prediction

Numerical Value

Charlie Cook

Toss-Up

0

Larry Sabato

Toss-Up

0

Cong Quarterly

Toss-Up

0

Election Predictions

Very Weak GOP

2.5

Blue In Texas

Very Weak GOP

2.5

Polling Company

Date

Duckworth

Roskam

Margin

Constituent Dynamics

8/27-29

47%

46%

1%

Factor

Numbers

Raw Value

Weight

Factor

Pundit Average(one poll)

0+0+0+2.5+2.5

1

70%

0.7

Poll Average

-1

-1

20%

0.2

Partisan leaning

PVI: +3 GOP

3

7%

0.21

Money advantage

1.49:1 Roskam

1.49

2%

0.03

Statewide incumbent approval

Blagojevich 44-52

-8

1%

0.08

Other issues

None

Roskam will win by 0.82%

District 8: This is the race to watch in Illinois, with a highly Republican district represented by a Democrat, Melissa Bean, who won only because of her unpopular, geriatric predecessor Phil Crane. Her vote for CAFTA may also hurt, as the unions are rallying behind Bill Scheurer. However, there are some things that may help her: the incumbent factor, Bush's abysmal poll numbers in Illinois, and her incredible fundraising. David McSweeny was neck-and-neck with Bean in funds, but spent a lot of it in the crowded primary. Bean also has support from most of the country club Republicans in the district as well as an endorsement from the Chamber of Commerce.

House District 1: Bobby Rush - 7th term
House District 2: Jesse Jackson, Jr. - 6th term
House District 3: Daniel Lipinski - 1st term
House District 4: Luis Gutierrez - 7th term
House District 5: Rahm Emanuel - 2nd term
House District 6: Henry Hyde - 16th term (retiring)
House District 7: Danny Davis - 5th term
House District 8: Melissa Bean - 1st term
House District 9: Jan Schakowsky - 4th term
House District 10: Mark Steven Kirk - 3rd term
House District 11: Jerry Weller - 6th term
House District 12: Jerry Costello - 10th term
House District 13: Judy Biggert - 4th term
House District 14: Dennis Hastert - 10th term
House District 15: Tim Johnson - 3rd term
House District 16: Donald Manzullo - 7th term
House District 17: Lane Evans - 12th term (retiring)
House District 18: Ray Lahood - 6th term
House District 19: John Shimkus - 5th termCurrent political makeup
U.S. Senate: 2 DEM
U.S. House: 10 DEM, 9 GOP