The field is set in Iowa for the Republican presidential caucuses. Now, all we need to figure out is whom the fans will support — and exactly when they will hold the game.

The national media have spent most of the past two months talking about a two-man race. That is, until support for Rick Perry started to head for the border. In Iowa, Republican caucus veterans and county GOP leaders say it still looks like a two-man race: Mitt Romney versus Everybody Else.

Romney has maintained 20 percent to 25 percent in most polls of Iowa GOP caucusgoers, while each of the other candidates takes his or her star turn in the top tier. No one has emerged yet as a clear favorite among the conservative alternatives to Romney. Those who claw their way to the top haven’t managed to stay there for long.

“I’ve had in my head this imagery of an escalator, or a conveyor belt, where everybody else is on it and everybody gets their trip to the top — and falls off,” said John Stineman, a Republican consultant who is remaining neutral in the caucus campaign.

Iowa GOP leaders have marveled at how fluid the race remains, with less than 80 days until the caucuses. (That’s assuming the caucuses are on Jan. 3, a tentative date that remained a moving target as of this writing.)

“I’m surprised it is completely wide open right now. I could make a case for any one of seven, how they could win the Iowa caucuses today,” said Bob Vander Plaats, head of the Family Leader, a Christian policy organization. “There’s been no coalescing around any candidate.”

Republican National Committee member Steve Scheffler notes that campaigns aren’t as organized as they usually are by this stage. “I never thought I’d be in a position to tell you this, but I have no clue as to who could win the caucuses,” he said.

He said most candidates don’t seem to be building sufficient organizations to turn out caucusgoers.

None of the campaigns had announced reaching the milestone of 99 county chairmen as of late last week. Having a point person in each of Iowa’s 99 counties has been seen as a mark of a strong, statewide organization, important for turning out supporters on caucus night.

Sac County GOP Chairwoman Ann Trimble Ray, who is choosing to stay neutral in the caucus race, told me Thursday that she’d received only one call so far from a campaign. Not a single candidate has set foot in Sac County, and the candidates have spent far less time in Republican-saturated western Iowa than normal.

“We haven’t seen or heard from them. We haven’t been able to have our county gatherings with presidential candidates as the speakers,” Ray said. She said she thinks that’s one reason voters have been unwilling to commit to candidates. “I would think that pretty soon these guys would figure that out, that the more accessible you are, the better shot you’re going to have.”

So who has a shot at winning the caucuses?

Here’s a snapshot, based on my own observations and discussions with Iowa GOP leaders and caucusgoers. One proviso: I’m writing this before all of the third-quarter campaign finance reports had been released, which could alter perceptions of some campaigns’ viability. (UPDATE: The money reports are in now)

MITT ROMNEY: His chances of actually winning the Iowa caucuses are looking better all the time. He has held on to a solid and loyal base of support in Iowa, despite choosing to run an absentee campaign in the state for most of 2011.

His standout performance in the fall debates and continued dominance in fundraising has bolstered the perception that he’s electable. That has helped smooth over some of the angst related to his Massachusetts health-care plan.

If he matches his poll numbers in the caucuses, and the rest of the field remains splintered, he could eke out a caucus win with a vote percentage around 25 percent. Iowa Republican activists disagree about whether Romney would actually have to spend significant time campaigning here this fall in order to turn that theory into reality. His campaign is active on the ground, and he has the money to go on the air.

Romney will be in western Iowa on Thursday, and David Kochel of Romney’s Iowa campaign says he expects the former governor will spend more time in Iowa in November.

Part of what Romney has done very well is manage the slippery game of outperforming expectations. “If he comes here, he immediately boosts expectations if he starts working hard,” noted Stineman.

But, adds Scheffler, that would be very short-sighted if Romney, as the GOP nominee, hopes to win Iowa in the general election. Iowa only has six electoral votes (down from seven after redistricting), but remains a swing state that went for Barack Obama in 2008.

HERMAN CAIN: He’s at the top of the escalator right now, but it remains to be seen whether he’s wearing ice cleats or roller skates. The Georgia businessman, former CEO of Godfather’s Pizza, topped Romney by 4 percentage points in a Wall Street Journal-NBC News poll released Thursday. He also led Romney in one poll of Iowa caucusgoers and trailed him only narrowly in another.

Cain’s status as an outsider — he’s never held public office — is a strong selling point with anti-establishment voters, including the tea party. His postage-stamp “9-9-9” tax plan has appealing simplicity, and his engaging personality and compelling family history have caught on with voters around the country.

His inexperience as a candidate, tentative grasp of some issues and some impolitic remarks about Muslims chilled early enthusiasm for his candidacy in Iowa. But now, activists around the state say Cain could win Iowa — if he gets organized. He hasn’t campaigned here since the August straw poll and he has only a skeleton staff.

RON PAUL: Iowa GOP activists usually discount the chances of the Libertarian-leaning congressman from Texas by saying he has a “ceiling” for support. But Paul was a close second place in the Iowa Straw Poll, and his support remains steady regardless of his fortunes in debates.

The splintering of the religious right provides opportunity for Paul, as it does for Romney, to keep his loyal base together and outshine rivals on caucus night. Republican leaders have a hard time admitting that Paul could win the caucuses, but they have no trouble imagining him in second place. That’s a great place to be right now — within striking distance, but not in the crosshairs.

RICK PERRY: The Texas governor is widely considered to have the biggest campaign organization in Iowa right now — an interesting development, since he’s been in the race the shortest amount of time. Perry is trying to make up lost ground after entering the race on the day of the Ames straw poll in August.

Expectations that he would be the candidate to unify conservatives here have drained away amid criticism over his record on immigration and his executive order that required 12-year-old girls to receive vaccinations for a sexually transmitted virus. His weak debate performances have shaken confidence, as well.

But Perry’s still introducing himself to Iowa voters and his financial strength will give him more options than most of his rivals in Iowa.

RICK SANTORUM: He likes to compare his campaign to the “little engine that could.” The former Pennsylvania senator’s persistence has started to pay off in the Hawkeye State. He outperformed expectations by coming in fourth in the straw poll, and he’s logged more days in Iowa — 58 as of last week — than any other candidate.

Vander Plaats said he hears more consistently from key conservative organizations about Santorum than any other candidate. “I believe he’s going to do way better than expected,” he said.

Santorum gets ignored in the national media and has to fight for time during debates, although he’s generally made good use of the time he’s allotted. He loves the underdog position and knows how to use it to his advantage. If he unifies home-schoolers and religious conservatives, he could shoulder into the top tier at the caucus.

MICHELE BACHMANN: Her time at the top of the pack has come and gone. She entered the race with a head of steam in late June, just in time to pull the rug out from under Tim Pawlenty and win the Iowa straw poll. She was immediately eclipsed, however, by Perry, who began to flounder even more quickly.

Bachmann has doubled down in Iowa, and has been working to make the case that she’ s a “consistent conservative.” Campaign staff shakeups and candidate missteps undermined her efforts in September. Now, she’s hoping a back-to-basics, grassroots approach and stronger debate performances can earn her another chance.

NEWT GINGRICH: The former U.S. House speaker enjoyed a small bump in the polls in early October, mostly on the weight of his debate performances. Many Iowa Republicans still admire him for his intellectual heft and his new “21st Century Contract with America” is like catnip to conservatives.

But he has no campaign organization in Iowa to speak of, and has campaigned here only sporadically. He’s not likely to rise above the middle of the pack in the caucuses except as a fallback choice for voters who become disenchanted with the frontrunners.

JON HUNTSMAN: The former Utah governor has followed through on his promise to avoid Iowa. Iowa voters are returning the favor.