As part of the countdown to the 2012-13 college basketball season, Sporting News takes an analytical look at fourth-ranked Kentucky:

REASONS TO BELIEVE

Defense. Presuming the Wildcats get a full dose of freshman center Nerlens Noel, Kentucky’s disruptive defense will not retreat. Noel is different from Anthony Davis—more of a control-the-lane shot blocker than Davis’ anytime-anywhere approach—but in some ways, Noel’s constant interior presence will make the Wildcats harder to score against.

The wings. Freshmen Archie Goodwin and Alex Poythress will make for a more athletically dynamic set of wings than the Wildcats had last season. Neither is at the level of Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, but Darius Miller and Doron Lamb were not as physically gifted.

Cal can adapt. John Calipari won at UMass, Memphis and with the Dominican Republic, for goodness’ sake, and up until he won the 2012 NCAA Tournament there still were people questioning his coaching acumen. Folks, nobody ever has changed teams as rapidly or effectively. Since 2006, Calipari has averaged 34 wins per season. In that period, he has had 18 players leave early for the NBA. This is not the greatest run for a coach in NCAA history, but it certainly is unparalleled.

REASONS TO WORRY

It ain’t easy being green. This is a less experienced team than the one that represented UK last season—which also featured three freshman starters. These Wildcats have one player (Ryan Harrow) who was a starter for a mediocre N.C. State team and one 12-minute player (power forward Kyle Wiltjer) who isn’t incredibly athletic.

A comparative lack of talent. The Wildcats will be more talented than most of their opponents, but they won’t be as talented as the 2010 or 2012 Kentucky teams. They might rise to the level of the 2011 team, which reached the Final Four—but only after earning a No. 4 seed. It’s likely this team will put together something approximating the success of the past three teams. But it won’t be automatic.

High standards. What will Kentucky fans view now as a successful season? Calipari’s first team won 35 games. His second went to the Final Four. His third won the NCAA title. He starts all over again with an entirely new crop of players. How much latitude do they get from UK fans?

PG - Twany Beckham, Sr., 6-4/202. He started five games at Mississippi State as a sophomore but couldn’t crack UK’s rotation last season.

MY VIEW

Coach John Calipari: “We will be all right. We aren’t where we were. We have great kids. I’m really excited about the kind of people we have on this team. They understand we are not as physical as we were. Obviously, we weren’t very experienced last year, but we had more than we have this year. We had three guys who had been in the Final Four. But, like I said a couple years ago, if I had my choice of teams, I’m taking this team. I don’t see anybody out there that scares me. At the end of the year, our team will be fine. We’ve got size, we’ve got speed, we’ve got some athleticism—they’re just really inexperienced.”

THEIR VIEW

An opposing SEC coach’s take: “Obviously we’ve got highly ranked teams in our league, year in and year out, and it’s a lot easier to deal with some of the others because of their continuity. One thing (Calipari) has been good at since he’s been in the league is he adapts to his personnel offensively. From year to year, he’s changed things offensively. They stay the same defensively, but you’re always adjusting scouting reports as to what they do on offense to incorporate the personnel better. It’s a challenge. The only thing that’s consistent is their length. You’re always preparing for their length and athleticism. They’re never deep. He’s always in a situation where they’re playing six or seven guys. So there are some staples you prepare for, that you’re used to, but the personnel is hard to gauge. Last year, they had the best chemistry they’ve had since we coached against them. Other years, you were at times able to take advantage of that youth.”

IMPACT NEWCOMER

PG Ryan Harrow, N.C. State transfer. The Wildcats need as much of Noel as they can get, but the player whose performance will have the greatest impact is Harrow, who averaged 9.3 points and shot 39 percent as a freshman at N.C. State. Spending a year in the U.K. system almost certainly helped Harrow improve, but expecting that he’ll immediately morph into a worthy successor to past Calipari playmakers is asking a lot.

FIVE BIGGEST GAMES

Nov. 13 vs. Duke (Champions Classic). This is the marquee game of the doubleheader event in Atlanta, the first Kentucky-Duke meeting since the 2001 Jimmy V Classic.

Nov. 29 at Notre Dame. How good are the Irish at home? The past five years: 82-7 at the Joyce Center, 36-47 elsewhere.

Dec. 29 at Louisville. With all the rivalries killed because of conference realignment, it’s nice to see one of the best enduring.

Feb. 23 vs. Missouri. You haven’t played SEC basketball until you’ve played at Rupp Arena—UK is undefeated at home under Calipari—so this will be the Tigers’ unofficial welcome.

March 9 vs. Florida. It’s no coincidence the SEC has made a habit of saving Gators-Wildcats for the final weekend.

BOTTOM LINE

With Kentucky, the thing to do is trust that Calipari has attracted enough talent to replace the truckload that just traveled out of the program. It’s also safe to assume he will find the correct formula to mix the players he has gathered into a championship contender. It’s conceivable the Wildcats eventually will hit a snag, and if ever that’s going to happen, it’s now, with a point guard who never was considered an elite prospect. But who’s betting against them?