Wednesday, June 16, 2010

Context in NC-11

Republican Jeff Miller, running against Heath Shuler in North Carolina's 11th Congressional District, is touting a new internal poll showing him down 'only' 46-34 to Shuler.

We polled the 11th District in late May of 2006 when Shuler was challenging then incumbent Charles Taylor. Shuler already led Taylor 46-42 at this point in the race. Those are the kind of numbers you see for a strong challenger. Barring some major development in the race between now and November Shuler should be just fine.

5 comments:

PPP polled Kay Hagan down 9 points on July 27, 2008 and she ended up winning by 8.5 points. Survey USA had Jeff Merkley down 12 on August 4 and he won by 3.5. Being down 12 at any point is bad, of course. If this is a Republican year there will be a few candidates who come from that far back.