On a side note, at this time is it safe to put ‘Bones floor at Herndon or is that still too optimistic? Anyway, to just add to my previous i like ‘Bone because proximity/floor seem extremely high even if his ceiling is a 4.

That seems about right, definitely could be a serviceable long man right now with no further improvements. I actually think Martin has a higher floor (slightly that is) because I think his floor is late inning reliever (the stuff is just better especially out of the pen) but Pettibone has much more likelihood of being that innings eating starter, even if it is at the back of a rotation.

That is true, if both Martin and ‘Bone end up as pen guys Martin is significantly more valuable. i still vote ‘Bone because i really feel he will stick as a 4 but it a point well made about how far Pettibone drops in value if he does not reach that ceiling. I will put my trust in the good ground ball pitcher as apposed to the K guy who has let games get away after walking a few. Obviously, in the pen you don’t get a lot of chances to bounce back after an inning where you walk a bunch.

I never liked cornflakes. I am amazed that they’re still sold. They pack in my teeth to the point where it’s really annoying. Really don’t care for the taste either. So many better options yet they endure.

I went with Pettibone the last few rounds, and I’ll go with him here. If there is a major injury in the rotation, he might log quite a few major league innings this year. Either way, I’m interestED to see how he does at AAA for a full year.

If Martin had Pettibone’s command he’d probably be right there with Biddle as our top prospect. Either one is a solid choice here but I went with Martin because I think command can be learned more easily than stuff. Late additions to stuff aren’t often more than an accent to the stuff that was already there. Hamels cutter. Kendrick’s or Halladay’s changeup. Sometimes a new pitch becomes dominant like a splitter was for Bruce Sutter but more often its just to mix in and keep hitters guessing a bit, just enough to get in their heads. Meanwhile, there’s a lot to be said for Pettibone’s know-how and overall feel for pitching. Plenty of stuff-heavy guys never get it. Pettibone already has it. Still, if Martin turns the corner and gains command as he matures he’ll leap over Pettibone rather easily.

Maybe Pettibone should try out a splitter? Where have you gone, Roger Craig?

I like Tocci better than both Martin and Pettibone but since he also has no chance over the next two, I placed my vote for Martin for same reasons as before. Martin might have made a jump in his command and his stuff is probably the best of any of the minor league starters.

I’m pretty pessimistic about Pettibone. He just doesn’t strike out enough guys. Most pitchers strike out fewer guys in the majors than the minors. Pettibone’s 6.4 K/9 rate is already low. If it dips below 6 when he hits the majors, he’s in big trouble. Here’s the list of right handed starters last year who struck out less than 6 per 9 innings:

That’s a pretty discouraging list and those are only the guys who qualified for the ERA title. If you expand the list to pitchers who threw a minimum of 100 innings, you get 10 more names of mostly guys who were so bad their teams didn’t allow them to keep starting (think Chris Volstad). The most important thing for a minor league pitcher isn’t to induce ground balls. It’s to get strikeouts while keeping a reasonable walk rate. I don’t know why this is being overlooked with Pettibone.

I’d certainly take Martin or Watson over Pettibone and maybe even Austin Wright. I’d probably even take Aumont and DeFratus over him even though relievers are much less valuable.

I feel one counter point i can validly make is that Pettibone, at least in A+ and AA, showed a very impressive walk rate and strike outs to walk ratio. While you concede a pitcher needs strikeouts and a “reasonable walk rate”, would an excellent walk rate make up for the lower K totals? As i said, he does have a good strike out to walk ratio…

Your list is exactly the kind of pitcher I expect Pettibone can be in 2013 – a mid-to-back-end starter. This is a very valuable prospect, moreso than you give him credit for. In particular, I’d like to point out Tim Hudson – he had a K/9 of 5.1, a BB/9 of 2.4, and a HR/9 of 0.6 in 2012. That is exactly the kind of line I expect from Pettibone – low Ks but also low BBs and low HRs.

Low strikeout totals are never a good sign for a minor leaguer. However if he can keep walks down and keep the ball in the park, that can make up for the lower K-rate to some extent.

I understand the lack of enthusiasm for Pettibone’s upside, but his present ability to add value at the MLB level makes up for that in my mind.

I do hear what you’re saying about Hudson. I guess where I’d disagree slightly is that TIm Hudson is the absolute best case scenario of that group. He really is an anomaly. The vast majority of guys range from not very effective to disasters. I hope Pettibone is the exception, but there’s a huge chance he doesn’t pitch like a 4th or 5th starter. RHPs who can’t miss bats tend to get hit hard at the big league level, which usually leads to pitching around hitters, which in turn causes a rise in walk rate.

I probably shouldn’t have cherry-picked Hudson because that was misleading due to his name recognition. I do not expect Pettibone to be the next Tim Hudson (career WAR of 52!). Here are the average K/9, BB/9, HR/9, FIP, and xFIP from your list (which is a great list by the way, thanks for looking it up):

K/9 – 5.3
BB/9 – 2.4
HR/9 – 1.0
FIP – 4.3
xFIP – 4.2

Hudson in 2012:

K/9 – 5.1
BB/9 – 2.4
HR/9 – 0.6
FIP – 3.8
xFIP – 4.1

I think all those numbers are totally reasonable for Pettibone. Your argument (I think) is that those guys are not all that great. Should we rank the next Kevin Correia as our #8 prospect? Well, that group of players averaged WAR of 2.1 last year. I will take that kind of reasonable expectation every day of the week from a 22-year-old in AAA.

I hadn’t really thought of it in terms of WAR, but you’re right. In a pretty thin system a 2 win player at #8 isn’t too shabby. So I guess we could say there’s a reasonable chance he becomes a 2 win player (a below average #4 or good #5) and a decent chance his lack of strikeouts undermines his plus command and causes him to become too hittable.

I’d be interested to see how RHPs with a similar K rate in the minors fare overall. I have no idea how to get that information without a ton of work though.

I wanted to vote for Tocci, to help get the campaign going, but I’ll wait until next round.
Pettibone and Martin are close, but I voted for Pettibone in this round. Pettibone gets the vote because there are major league, starting pitchers that are comparables for him. Pettibone becoming something between Kyle Kendrick and John Garland is not a stretch. On the other hand, I can not find a starting pitcher that walks as many batters as Martin. I also can’t find a great closer or setup man, that had the types of K/BB rates. Even though, Martin reportedly has better stuff, Pettibone clearly has the better chance to be a major league starter for a long time. If Martin struck out a few more batters I’d favor his ceiling, but I’m not sure he has the ceiling that some seem to give him.

Martin’s rap seems to be his inability to throw his breaking stuff for strikes. So if he ever does that, and does it well, his walks should go down and his Ks could go up. On the other hand, if he throws breaking balls for strikes and they get slapped al over the yard, that’s not terribly helpful. National folks seem to think he’s more likely a bullpen piece, but his time in Reading looked like it helped his control. Maybe someone there found a good tweak for him that will get him on track, or maybe it was good performance over a pretty small sample, or maybe, just maybe, he borrowed a glove from Tommy Joseph and absolutely loved it and it made all the difference ;)

I agree and would like to amplify some of your concerns on Martin. A K/9 of 8.5 is good but by no means elite. A BB/9 of 4 is poor. The two together are not impressive at all.

In addition, when comparing Martin and Pettibone, Martin is a full year older and had less success at the same level.

I think the only way one could rank Martin higher is to believe that something clicked in Reading and he will never go back to his old ways, plus his one seven-walk start in Reading was an aberration that will also not recur. I am not ready to give him credit for that.

I hate sounding so anti-Martin as I am very hopeful for him in 2013. Still, I think Pettibone is clearly the superior prospect.

You explained why I flipped Pettibone over Martin on my list this morning and voted for Pettibone. If Martin’s reason for being high on the list is ‘stuff’, his K/9 isn’t good enough to be this high on the list.

Boston Phan, I think that both your posts are spot-on. Another reason I like Pettibone over Martin, is that because Pettibone is young, he may still learn to strike more batters out, just through better pitch selection. Or he may may learn another pitch and improve his K rate in the majors the way Worley did.

Looks like I started a good conversation about Tocci yesterday that I missed out on. To reply to some of the comments there, Tocci probably gets a boost for me because his best tools are very tangible. Asche on the other hand has conflicting offensive statistics. I’m hoping the power and plate discipline numbers he showed in AA are indicative of his talent, but I’m much more comfortable grading out Tocci’s advanced defense.

Pettibone. As much as I love Martin’s potential, Pettibone is younger, at a higher level, and consistently good. I can realistically see him becoming at least a back-end starter in the mold of Kendrick or Worley.

I hope Martin continues to put it all together, but we can’t forget that his numbers after the trade were the exception to his career, rather than the rule.

Hmm…could be. I have Aumont 11 on my prelim list. Gillies I have given a huge ding for injuries and he’s in the 20s for me, though that might shift still as I contemplate it more. I think he’s a giant risk at this point, but yeah, you could be right about either of them contending for that spot. Anyone else seems like a longshot to make noise in the poll this week.

Yeah, just from what scouts say, if they both max out, they could both be stars. I just feel like the concensus is that Tocci’s power potential is not knowable right now, and we have at least a more reasonable set of assumptions about Watson’s potential.

Still going Martin even though he doesn’t have Popcorn Ceiling he has a solid Drop Ceiling…Pettibone has more of an unfinished ceiling where the pipes and wires are all exposed…Also I would like to point out that you are all messing up my personal list cause I had Martin at #4 but I will refrain from calling you names…(Note this is humor and not sarcasm or anything mean and it is not an attempt to bring an end to this site) I’m Sam Soap and I approve this post!

P-Bone here. He is the one who’d be called upon first in ’13 if there becomes a temporary gap in the rotation.

Gillies next. Then Martin, etc.

Plugging away here for Gillies whose skill set exceeds all others yet hiccuped via injuries. IF (that’s a BIG “IF”) he is over his injuries he is the closest to being a 5-tool guy in the system. Calling Dr. Kildare.

Martin: hopefully he remains a starter. Diminished value as a pen guy. Reach for the stars, Martin.

Gillies is not a 5 tool player today as he doesn’t hit for power at all so that would make him a 4 tool guy, which is still very good. I love Gillies and he hits for power in BP but he doesn’t swing that way in games yet and i have no idea whether he ever will. He reminds me of the way Ichiro hits (in style) in that he slaps at balls and tries to get on base but every once in a while he tries to hit the ball out and does. Supposedly, Ichiro hits a ton of balls out in BP. Gillies has a ton of skill and if he can stay healthy for the entire season and hit 300, he’ll have terrific value.

I also agree with the push for Gillies. The injuries are a real concern but I do not know the short and long term affects they will have on him. But what I have heard (especially influenced by his short lived Spring Training buzz) and see in his stats makes me think he has Victorino-like upside. I am not a big fan of Revere but Philllies best hope may be that Gillies is healthy, plays great, and becomes the key component in a mid-season trade. Gillies talent is good but his injury and attitude risk might want to have the Phillies try to sell high.

If Gillies manages a real good spring, he could push the decision on corner OF as well. His bat is not ideal, but he shows a bit of power and the range of the OF would go through the roof with him and Revere out there at the same time. I don’t know that, barring injury, the club would give him the shot out of camp unless they felt like Ruf was going to be an unmitigated disaster, which seems really unlikely to me.

It happens out of necessity at times. Revere played a fair amount of corner last year. Victorino played RF for a while in 07, as did Bourn, when the Phils were short on corner OF and had Rowand in CF. Not saying Gillies will land in a corner forever. He’s clearly more valuable defensively in CF and lacks enough power at the plate to fill the traditional corner OF role, but traditional roles end when you start playing the games with the roster you have assembled.

It happens out of necessity mainly with bad teams. Obviously there are counter examples, but it’s still not something a contender aspires to. In the Phillies case, the fallback option is a Mayberry/Nix platoon. If Brown and Ruf BOTH flame out – honestly, they still wouldn’t go with Gillies. No chance..

There’s obviously a pretty wide range of expectations regarding Gillies. the uncertainty regarding his health is two fold – can he stay healthy, and, even if so, have his injuries robbed him of some of his speed – and, on top of that, just how much has losing essentially 3 years development time effected him? I could be overly pessimistic about all of this. I hope I am. But as Murray says below, he has a lot to prove before a spot on the major league roster is even a possibility. (And if probably a quick promotion would ironically be a bad sign for his prospects of becoming a regular.)

As for a corner OF spot, if you think he is legitimately a guy who is going to bat .300 plus with at least an league average number of walks, speed, and mid range power, well perhaps. I think that’s wildly optimistic. If you instead think that he is someone who is more likely to hit .280 with a below average number of walks, some speed (but not necessarily EFFECTIVE speed, as seemed to be the case even pre-injury), and lower mid range power – well, that simply is not a corner OF regular on a contender even with good defense. IMO, even healthy the latter looks to me to be a lot more likely than the former.

First of all Art, there would be no need for that tone even if your memory wasn’t clouded. But clouded it is..

The simple fact is that I have been among the most enthusiastic of the rational commenters around here with regard to Asche from day one. (I can think of two commenters who I respect who like him a little more than I do, and at least a couple of dozen commenters who I respect who like him less.).I “got” the enthusiasm for him from when that enthusiasm first started. And then I was one of the few people who didn’t overreact in a negative way to his early problems in AA, saying the sample size was low, give him time to adjust, etc., etc. (Of course I also issued some sample size cautions about the high batting average in A+, but I was not wrong about that, and made it clear that he was none the less an impressive prospect even then.)

In fact I never said anything about him that, to a person who actually bothered to read what I said, could be characterized as negative.

There was a little thing going on at the time though that you may recall. There was one (one) person on this site who got wildly overenthusiastic about Asche to the point of saying he should be the Phillies’ regular third baseman in 2013, that it was an insult to say that he was likely to be “only” an average major league third baseman, and so on, and so on. Oh yeah, that was you. There were a couple of other guys getting a little carried away, but not nearly to that extent. I have this vision (yes, I’m making this up, but it has the ring of truth) that his mom read your comments, turned to her husband, and said “honey, this nice man named Art really thinks our son is going to be a great major league ball player, but honestly I think he is overdoing it a bit.”

And then Asche went on to win the rookie of the year award in 2013, hitting .330 with 25 HR and playing gold glove defense, and proved you right. Oh, wait, didn’t happen. I mean it could (not that particular scenario, but something better than I and pretty much everyone expects), but it hasn’t yet.. At this point, no one has been “vindicated” yet by anything he has done or not done. Heck, if anything I could claim a degree of vindication given the fact that the signing of Young makes it pretty clear that the “win a job out pf spring training” crowd were wrong. But I admit that predicting that the Phillies were not insane enough to promote Asche more aggressively than virtually any player in the game in the past 20 years (aside from a very few superstar level players) was not exactly going out on a limb.

Tell you what Arty, if Asche becomes a star then you have every right to come back and taunt me for my prediction (though I will STILL have been closer to the truth than 95% of the scouts/experts nationwide, and 80% of the commenters around here – that’s how positive I’ve been about him). Till then a pathetic post like this just embarrasses yourself.

And to be abundantly clear, while it is a bit of an apples to oranges comparison, Gillies and Asche really represent, to a discerning eye, precisely the difference between someone who is a legitimate prospect for a job as a major league regular, and someone who (at this point at least) isn’t. The only thing they have in common – and yes this explains some of the enthusiasm for Gillies and over enthusiasm for Asche – is that in both cases their 2012 batting averages are driving people’s opinions to a greater extent than they should, given lack of understanding about how small sample size batting averages, especially in the minor leagues, are not a good basis for prospect evaluation.

And really Art, your reaction is understandable. I never criticized Ache – saying he was not likely to be a star , or that promoting him to a regular major league job in 2013 would be premature, is not criticism – but I did criticize your comments about him. And, like me but to an even greater extent, you react defensively to that. But I THOUGHT we had an understanding. I’ve stopped responding to your inane and ill informed comments, and I thought you would give me the same courtesy. We even discussed that explicitly.

Yeah, I don’t actually think this will happen either. I am not convinced Gillies will be anything more than an oft-injured 4th OF. I don’t have him anywhere near my top ten. I was just putting forth the possibility that he might be interesting for a club with some potentially very poor options in the OF. The Nix/Mayberry platoon is, IMO, a really lousy option in the outfield, (more for Nix than Mayberry – I think JMJ is an ok RHB in a platoon, but that’s not enough to make up for how bad Nix is), and so a healthy Gillies, if he’s able to hit MLB pitching this spring again, (a big “if”, to be sure), could make a play for a spot. It’s not like the team has another great OF option waiting in the wings. Except “proven veteran” Ender Inciarte.

I really don’t think there’s any chance of Gillies making the Phillies out of ST. He needs to go to LHV and show that he can hit there (he hasn’t played AAA yet) and that he can stay healthy for an entire season. No shot!

I have Pettibone over Martin in these next two spots for the same reasons as everyone else. I really think Pettibone can be a 10 yr starter throwing 180 – 200 innings each year and winning 12 – 16 games a year and that’s very valuable in the big picture. Blanton is my comp for him in terms of the results which is to say a solid #4 starter. I’ve watched Pettibone since Lakewood and he’s very consistent, throws strikes, and has a very good idea of how to pitch. His sinking fastball will be very effective in the big leagues. If we see him this year though, before September, that’s probably not good because it means several guys have gotten hurt. I rated Martin after Pettibone because of his strike throwing ability. I don’t think Martin is a sure fire major leaguer like I do for Pettibone. Martin has a chance to be a #3 starter but he could also become a 4A guy (like Trevor May) if he can’t improve his control. He showed improvement in Reading though and if that continues we’ll all be very happy with the finished product.

Murray, I think your comment on Martin becoming like Trevor May is an interesting one.

Martin in AA (I did a weighted average of his Dodgers and Phils stats) – K/9 of 8.4, BB/9 of 4.5, HR/9 of 0.5.
May in AA – K/9 of 9.1, BB/9 of 4.7, HR/9 of 1.3.

To me the only reason to like Martin more is his ability to suppress HRs (which he is good at and has done his whole minor league career).

An even more interesting comparison is with Aumont from 2011. These are his stats across AA and AAA:

Aumont – K/9 of 13.1, BB/9 of 4.9, HR/9 of 0.5.

Looks like Martin but with a much better K/9, right? The sample size is only 53 IP for Aumont, but the point remains – people who say Martin’s floor is a late-innings reliever need to look at him as a less-good version of Aumont. Also, Aumont is only 5 months older. I have Aumont ahead of Martin on my list.

Picthers K rates can rise when they go to the pen, though. Not saying Martin is equivalent to Aumont in that regard, just that it’s not an apples to apples comparison on its face. He could easily bring that rate up if he’s only using his two best pitches and a third sparingly, and turning his FB loose all the time.

I think of Martin as a mid 90s fastball guy who struggles with his control. That describes May as well. May’s control problems caused him to throw fastballs down the middle behind in the count and they were hit out a lot. Its very interesting that Martin’s home run rate is not nearly as high. That could be due to the park he played in before Reading or it could be that he has more confidence in his secondary pitches and can throw them behind in the count for strikes. That could be significant down the road. The big positive with Aumont is that his curve ball is a killer. When its working, its practically unhittable especially because he works off of a mid 90s fastball. The negative is that Aumont is huge and routinely loses his consistent motion and release point. That’s not uncommon with really big guys (Randy Johnson started that way). If he can repeat his delivery consistently, he’ll be outstanding. If not, he’ll never be more than a 4A guy. I like Pettibone more because the risk of him not making it is very low and while I agree that his ceiling is not as high, its still plenty high to be very good. I understand some like the higher ceiling guys and I respect that but its always a risk vs. ceiling thing for me. Our list of low risk / high ceiling guys is probably Biddle and no one else.

You may well be correct, but there are some statistical similarities. Cloyd’s ERA last year in the minors was 2.26 while Pettibone’s was 3.10. Cloyd struck out 113 in 167 innings, walked 41 and allowed 127 hits while Pettibone struck out 113 in 159.2 innings, walked 49 and allowed 146 hits. However, Pettibone had a much better ground ball to fly ball ratio and gave up fewer home runs per at bat. Both players were in both AA and AAA last season with most of Cloyd’s season coming in AAA while most of Pettibone’s season was in AA. One could certainly argue that Pettibone is more likely to improve from here since he is younger, but as they stand, quite comparable.

It’s worth noting that completely different players can put up comparable/similar results. And at the end of the day, results are what matters in baseball. If they take different routes but get to the same destination, then comparing them on results alone is worth doing. That being said, I don’t think where they each end up as players will be even remotely similar.

This #2 ceiling is just something people have pulled out of the air. I’ll pull a dmarr, and ask, ‘Name me one #2 MLB starter that had a +4.0 BB% through all levels of A Ball and had a less than 1.9 K/BB rate/ every year of his minor league career.’ I have to admit, I can’t think of any.

The #2 starter is contingent on 2012 not being the jump but the start of the jump and that he gets to average control and a BB/9 around 3, the fastball and breaking balls are just special enough (Aumont is a good starting point except that Martin’s control problems seem to be more mental than physical), and he would need to make the change at least average. I think it is more realistic to say he has a #3 ceiling as long as he can make the control average and the change up into a usable a pitch (which is interesting because he had what was close to a plus change coming out of high school). The Ethan Martin comp for me is still Brandon Morrow without the injuries. In much fewer minor league innings (Morrow went almost straight to the majors) he had a 4.2 BB/9 8.2 K/9 and 1.97 BB/K rate

But that proves the point, Winks. Brandon Morrow is nobody’s #2 starter. Morrow in most of his seasons has been a #4 at best. Joe Blanton has outperformed Morrow some years. Morrow should have probably been in the bullpen the last 3 years, if Toronto/Seattle had better pitching.

I would argue that Morrow turned the page last year at age 27 where he put up a 133 ERA+, 2.42 ERA, and 3.2 WAR, in just over 120 IP. He dialed back the strikeouts but also the walks. In 2010 and 2011 he had a FIP of 3.16 and 3.64 respectively .

But are you willing to say a pitcher that, for the 3 seasons prior to last year, was a 95 ERA+ pitcher is a MLB#2?
If Ethan Martin follows Brandon Morrow’s career, it will not be a bad career, but it is not #2 pitcher good. That being said, if Pettibone turns out to be Jon Garland and Ethan Martin turns out to be Brandon Morrow, I think the Phillies will take it and run.

To say a guy has a #2 ceiling doesn’t mean he’s a #2 as soon as he gets to the majors though. If a guy is a #4 in the majors for awhile, but is a #2 during his peak years (say a 3 or 4 year window) doesn’t that still mean he hit his ceiling?

I understand that. But I think some are losing sight on what a #2 pitcher is. Just because a guy has 2-3 pitches with good velocity or movement, doesn’t mean you have a #2 ceiling. The fact that he has never shown any control, while not striking out an obscene number, shows a limited ceiling.
Guys are just repeating a description that one person said, and this thought that Martin has a #2 ceiling has taken off.

Sickels and Matt both used that in their descriptions, and it has been stated that he has top of the rotation stuff by all accounts I have seen. I saw a few innings of Martin and Pettibone pitch and the difference is ‘stuff’ and ‘pitchability’ stick out like a sore thumb for both for both of them. There is no question Martin has better stuff and Pettibone has a feel for all of his pitches and a command for the strikezone. And please do not compare Pettibone to Cloyd they may have had similar numbers, but they are far from being similar pitchers, Pettibone has the potential to pull a Worley and increase his K/9 over an extended period of time in the majors where that is not remotely a chance for Cloyd. And VOR just remember that it is really rare for one to be a 2 without “2-3 pitches with good velocity or movement” and we all know that control is a big part of being a 2, but having the pitches leaves that as an option. Hey could be like Gio this year and figure it out or he could not. Control is a funny thing that some guys acquire with maturity.

Instead of using a derogatory label, perhaps you could provide some evidence or logic to support your argument. As far as i can tell, by your logic jiwan James should be in the top ten and having Ruf at #6 is representative of a person with an IQ in the 51-70 range.

It is crazy not to have Aumont already on the list. He is maybe going to be the player that determines it we have a great year or a disaster in the majors. If he pitches like he did last year he could be our 7th or set up man in the pen. If Adams isn’t ready. He may be the most talanted, unappreciated pitcher in the org. His stuff is outstanding when on and he looked like the switch came on. As some of you know it can happen at the major lg level. He has the mentality to be treating the minors as practice and has now made it and its time to go to work. I hope so..

Agree get Aumont on here. Best “stuff” in the organization. Side note – every time I watch him pitch I am so angry that he could not get his control down. Imagine how dominant the FB and curve and splitter would have been over 7 innings. UGH!!!

Oh crazy he wasn’t voted in as #8 or higher? Yeah, I disagree with that. It’d be crazy if he wasn’t in the top 15 maybe. I personally have him at 11 and I have no problem someone making the argument that he should be ahead of others, but crazy to not have a reliever with serious control questions at least #7? Can’t go for that.