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"Erin Brockovich" Is Americans' Top Choice for Best Picture

by Darren K. Carlson

"Gladiator" is a close second

GALLUP NEWS SERVICE

PRINCETON, NJ – Americans' choice for Best Picture in the
upcoming Oscar awards is the drama "Erin Brockovich," but among
frequent moviegoers – a group that might be closer in their
views to the Motion Picture Academy members who vote for the award
– the winner is "Gladiator." One of the reasons for the
popularity of these two pictures is that relatively few Americans
have seen any of the other three nominated films – "Traffic,"
"Chocolat," and "Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon." These and other
findings are based on a new Gallup poll conducted March 15-18 that
examines several aspects of the motion picture industry, including
public opinion of the events, people, and awards associated with
the 73rd annual Academy Awards.

Among Americans, "Erin Brockovich," starring Best Actress
nominee Julia Roberts, leads the Best Picture category with 32% of
all mentions, followed by "Gladiator" with 27%. Of the remaining
five nominated films "Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon" is chosen by
10%, "Traffic" receives 8%, and "Chocolat" 5%. Among frequent
moviegoers (those who have seen five or more movies in theaters
over a 12-month period), "Gladiator" wins with 35%, followed by
"Erin Brockovich" with 30% and "Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon"
with 17%. "Traffic" and "Chocolat" get 7% and 6%, respectively.

The public's preference for best picture is very closely tied to
the pictures they have actually seen. Forty-eight percent of
Americans report having seen "Erin Brockovich," and 41% have seen
"Gladiator," while less than 10% of the public indicates having
seen each of the other three nominated films. In fact, only 10% of
Americans have seen three or more of the nominated films, and a
very small percentage (2%) have seen four or five.

Women are more likely than men to have seen "Erin Brockovich,"
(51% to 45%), while more men say they have seen "Gladiator" (46% to
37%). Consistent with this, "Erin Brockovich" is the favorite movie
among women (chosen by 40% of women and 24% of men), while
"Gladiator" is named as the best movie by 37% of men and just 17%
of women.

Awareness of this year's nominated films is low. Sixty-nine
percent of Americans asked in an open-ended format to
nameanyof the movies nominated for best picture this year
could not come up with a single one. Americans were most likely to
mention "Erin Brockovich" or "Gladiator" as films that were
nominated for Best Picture – named by 15% and 14% of the
public, respectively. The other nominated films were all mentioned
by fewer than 10% of the public – "Chocolat" (9%), "Crouching
Tiger, Hidden Dragon" (8%), and Traffic (7%). Interestingly, the
film "Castaway" was mentioned by 5% of the public as a Best Picture
nominee even though it is not up for the award (though its star Tom
Hanks is nominated for Best Actor).

Of course, the fact that "Erin Brockovich" and "Gladiator" are
at the top of the list of the average American's wish list for the
Best Picture winner has no official bearing on what will be
revealed Sunday night; the actual votes are cast by the members of
the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences. As the table below
shows, of the six times Gallup has asked Americans to name their
favorite among the Oscar-nominated films, their choice has matched
the Academy's half of the time.

Year

Americans' pick

Eventual winner

1993

"A Few Good Men"

"Unforgiven"

1994

"Schindler's List"

"Schindler's List"

1995

"Forrest Gump"

"Forrest Gump"

1998

"Titanic"

"Titanic"

1999

"Saving Private Ryan"

"Shakespeare In Love"

2000

"The Green Mile"

"American Beauty"

The Audience and the Host
The "Oscars" (which air on Sunday, March 25th) are often
regarded as one of the most important events in Hollywood. The
event draws immense media attention but doesn't exactly capture
Americans' collective attention. This year, 43% of Americans
indicate that they intend to watch the award ceremony, while 51%
say they probably will not. Contextually, a nearly identical number
of Americans (44%) said they would watch the final episode of the
sitcom "Seinfeld," in spring 1998. But, the Oscars do not rank near
pro football's Super Bowl in terms of viewers; 65% of Americans
said they would watch that event in 2000.

The poll suggests that the Oscar audience on Sunday night will
skew towards female watchers. Fifty-one percent of women say they
will watch compared to just 34% of men. Also, younger Americans are
more apt to watch the broadcast, as 52% of 18-29 year olds say they
will watch compared to 44% of 30-49 year olds and 38% of those over
age 50.

Actor/Comedian Steve Martin is slated to host the show this
year. Gallup's survey shows he will have to work hard to overcome
the popular legacy of previous hosts. When asked which of four
personalities they would most like to see host the Academy Awards
– Billy Crystal, Whoopi Goldberg, David Letterman, or Steve
Martin -- Crystal (who hosted in 2000 and several other times in
the 1990s) tops the list with 37%, followed by Goldberg at 22%,
Martin at 20%, and Letterman at 14%.

Survey Methods

The results below are based on telephone interviews with
randomly selected national sample of 800 adults, 18 years and
older, conducted March 15-18, 2001. For results based on this
sample, one can say with 95 percent confidence that the maximum
error attributable to sampling and other random effects is plus or
minus 4 percentage points. In addition to sampling error, question
wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can
introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion
polls.

Do you plan on watching this year's Academy Awards broadcast
on Sunday March 25, or not?

Yes %

No %

No opinion %

2001 Mar 15-18

43

51

6

If it were up to you, who would you be most interested in
watching host the Academy Awards ceremonies this year –
[ROTATED: Billy Crystal, Whoopi Goldberg, David Letterman, (or)
Steve Martin]?

Billy
Crystal %

Whoopi Goldberg %

Steve
Martin %

David Letterman %

No
opinion %

2001 Mar 15-18

37

22

20

14

7

Are you aware of any of the five movies nominated for the
Academy Award for Best Picture this year? [Open ended] PROBE: Any
others?[Allow five mentions]

2001 Mar 15-18

(Percent Mentioning) %

Nominated Films

"Erin Brockovich"

15

"Gladiator"

14

"Chocolat"

9

"Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon"

8

"Traffic"

7

Non-nominated Films

"Castaway"

5

"Almost Famous"

1

"Hannibal "

1

None

40

Other

3

No opinion

29

Please tell me for each of these movies, whether you have
already seen it, if you haven't seen it but you expect to see it
sometime, or if you do not expect to see it at all. How about
[ROTATED]?

"Chocolat" [CHO-kuh-LAHT]

Already
seen it %

Not seen it, expect to %

Not seen
it, don't
expect to %

NOT SEEN IT, DON'T KNOW (vol.) %

No
opinion %

2001 Mar 15-18

6

27

54

13

*

"Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon"

Already
seen it %

Not seen it, expect to %

Not seen
it, don't
expect to %

NOT SEEN IT, DON'T KNOW (vol.) %

No
opinion %

2001 Mar 15-18

9

29

54

8

*

"Erin Brockovich"

Already
seen it %

Not seen it, expect to %

Not seen
it, don't
expect to %

NOT SEEN IT, DON'T KNOW (vol.) %

No
opinion %

2001 Mar 15-18

48

19

28

5

*

"Gladiator"

Already
seen it %

Not seen it, expect to %

Not seen
it, don't
expect to %

NOT SEEN IT, DON'T KNOW (vol.) %

No
opinion %

2001 Mar 15-18

41

21

35

3

0

"Traffic"

Already
seen it %

Not seen it, expect to %

Not seen
it, don't
expect to %

NOT SEEN IT, DON'T KNOW (vol.) %

No
opinion %

2001 Mar 15-18

7

38

45

10

*

(vol.)=Volunteered Response

*Less than 0.5%

At the Academy Awards ceremony this year, which one of the
following movies would you like to see win the Oscar award for Best
Picture of the Year – [ROTATED: "Chocolat," "Crouching Tiger,
Hidden Dragon," "Erin Brockovich," "Gladiator," (or)
"Traffic"]?

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