Biasotti: Clippers on rise, but a few players short

In the Time Before Chris Paul, the Los Angeles Clippers did sneak into the playoffs once or twice a decade, and even won a playoff series, once. Still, I don't think it's hyperbole to say the Clippers are in the middle of the most important two-game stretch in franchise history.

Get used to that. Just about everything the Clippers do from now on is going to be the most important thing they've ever done, because for the first time, the Clippers matter.

Wednesday's overtime win against the Miami Heat on ESPN was the best the team has looked this year against a good opponent. Saturday, they play the Lakers. If Clippers win, expect the NBA world to go out of its mind over them for at least 48 hours, until the next team of the moment presents itself.

Will the Clippers beat the Lakers? I have no idea. You'll need to read somebody else for predictions and gambling tips.

I do know that even with back-to-back wins against the Lakers and the Heat, it would be a bad idea to get carried away with Clipper fever. This is a good team, with one truly great player and another on the verge of greatness. It is not a title contender.

I said the same thing about the Lakers recently: a good team, but not an elite one. The difference is that the Lakers are getting worse with time. The Clippers, unless they do something to really screw it up, are a team on the rise.

As wonderful as Blake Griffin is, Chris Paul is the reason there's hope in Clipperland.

For the past two years, ever since Paul tore the meniscus in his left knee and missed half of the 2009-10 season, the gaggle of NBA talking heads had put the "best point guard in the game" tag on one player after another: Deron Williams, Rajon Rondo, Derrick Rose.

Every time I saw one of those claims, I got this image of Paul sitting at home in the offseason, watching those clips and plotting his revenge. Maybe he'd pin the articles to the wall of a basement lit by a single overhead bulb, like a movie serial killer.

Truth be told, Paul's basement is a lot more likely to have a bowling lane than a creepy collage of Jon Barry's comments on Derrick Rose. I'm not kidding; Chris Paul is way into bowling.

Paul isn't quite the same player he was before that knee injury, but he's still the best point guard I've seen in the 20 years since Magic Johnson retired.

His own statistics are impressive, but you have to look at the team's performance to appreciate his artistry. With Paul running the show, the Clippers have the fourth-best offense in the NBA, scoring 107.3 points per 100 possessions. They have the league's third-lowest turnover rate and fourth-highest assist rate.

Last year, in the B.C.P. era, the offense ranked 22nd in the league. The Clippers turned the ball over more often than anyone, and they were in the middle of the pack in assists.

But offense is only half the game, and the Clippers have been dreadful at the other half. Their defense ranks 22nd in the NBA, allowing 104.9 points per 100 possessions. And that counts the great night they had against Miami.

The Clippers' big problem on defense isn't a lack of effort or bad strategy; it's that they don't have many good defensive players.

DeAndre Jordan is a game-changing shot blocker. Paul is leading the league in steals, for the fourth time in his seven seasons. Neither is the sort of stopper who can lock down the opposing team's best player.

The biggest hole is next to Paul in the backcourt. Chauncey Billups, a point guard his entire career, has played pretty well at shooting guard this year, but he's older, smaller and slower than almost everyone he's matched up with.

Somehow, Billups did a great job guarding Dwyane Wade on Wednesday. I would worry about his long-term health if he were asked to do that regularly.

After Griffin and Jordan, the frontcourt is full of holes. For the first few games, the first big man off the bench was Brian Cook. He's not there for his defense. His specialty is supposed to be shooting. He's taken 30 shots this year, and made six.

Reggie Evans has, mercifully, taken most of Cook's minutes recently.

To compete on a regular basis with the best teams, the Clippers need two complimentary players: an athletic wing player to back up Billups and small forward Caron Butler, and another big man to back up Griffin and Jordan.

With their current roster, the margin of error is just too thin. If Griffin and Jordan both get in foul trouble, or if Butler and Billups both go cold, Paul is going to know what it means to miss New Orleans.

So, the Clippers are one or two above-average backups away from joining the NBA's elite. That's not a bad place to be. I wouldn't bet on them to beat Oklahoma City, Portland, Denver or the Lakers in a seven-game series. Not this year. But if I were any of those teams, I wouldn't be happy to draw the Clippers in Round 1.