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Post “Placeholder Bailout” Senate Power Rankings

Now that the placeholders have taken a step back from running the political atmosphere has changed slightly, so while we wait for new candidates to drop in their spot (or not), I thought it might be a good exercise to see what the lay of the land is.

So, unless we pick up a couple of replacements from Democrats which are not expected……

Curd is incumbent, but Sanden will likely take some shots at him. As long as Curd runs, he should be safe.

13

Kolbeck

Pierson

Lean GOP

Denny Pierson has prior experience, but grasping at straws anymore. Kolbeck has a good team behind him.

14

Soholt

Swanger

Strong GOP

Swanger running as conservative indy in district w/out any GOP backing against Republican.

15

Nesiba

Dem Over

16

Bolin

Skiles

Strong GOP

Bolin is a campaign
machine. It’s over.

17

Rusch

Merrill

Lean GOP

Rusch is well respected, and the incumbent. Merrill has yet to make
his case why to replace him.

18

Kennedy

Stone

Dem Over

Stone ran good campaign 2 years ago,but withdrew for employment

19

Nelson

Graef

Strong GOP

Graef was recently arrested for DUI. Nelson will win.

20

Klumb

Berg

Lean GOP

Klumb is from right area in District, but Berg is not inexperienced.
Today, we call it for Klumb.

21

Sutton

Dem Over

22

White

Groth

GOP Over

Absent a replacement, it’s done.

23

Cronin

GOP Over

24

Monroe

GOP Over

25

Langer

Barth

Toss Up

Both candidates have visibility in district that has elected Democrats in the last decade. Langer is excellent candidate, but Barth isn’t inexperienced.

26

Heinert

Dem Over

27

Killer

Dem Over

28

Maher

GOP Over

29

Cammack

Kindler

Strong GOP

I can’t even tell you
Kindler’s name. We can call this one over.

30

Russell

LaRive

Strong GOP

LaRive must have escaped the last Democrat Bounty Hunt in Fall River
County. It’s over.

31

Ewing

GOP Over

32

Solano

Hubbard

Strong GOP

It is over

33

Jensen

Stuck

Strong GOP

Unless Jensen says something
ill-advised (again), this race is his after winning the primary.

34

Partridge

Schultz

Strong GOP

Over

35

Haverly

GOP Over

The tale of the tape has Democrats giving up 10 seats as uncontested at this point, while Republicans are giving up an unusual 6. Primarily because of a lack of competition for Heinert & Sutton, and what happened in District 18.

Otherwise, I think the races have remained fairly steady since the post primary review. Watch for things to start to shift slightly in the next 30 days when everything starts to gear up.

Still, I’d rather be in the GOP’s shoes than the Democrats, as they’re giving up an incredible 30% or so of the seats in the State Senate, while Republicans are only taking a pass on 17%.

Doubtful. Duggy, Soholt, Peters, Mickelson and company have a pretty good strong hold on the Republican party. I am personally waiting for these four to announce another tax increase of 0.5% or better yet a new tax like a Corporate Income Tax to raise money.

Interesting discussion of Wiik/Tyler. In the last election Mr Wiik came in 4th place in a four candidate race in his home county. Both Dems beat him. He won in distant counties because people voted for the R with little knowledge of the person. Tyler is crazy rigid on the left, but Wiik is the mirror image on the right. I do not believe “thoughtful” describes either candidate. They are both driven by overwhelming fringe-element philosophical passions.

Clearly, it doesn’t matter what anyone says on this blog about Tyler/Wiik. The ONLY thing that’s important is what their voters think. Wiik is a good guy but he doesn’t have the coat tails he had last election. To win Milbank, the largest community in our district, he has to get rid of that chip on his shoulder. And Wiik and every other Milbank voter knows what I’m talking about. Next, he needs to show voters he wants to win. Last election I got all kind of stuff from Tyler in my mailbox and she came to my house twice. Wiik didn’t knock on my door once – and I’m a registered Republican! I voted for Wiik before and I’ll vote for him again, but if he wants to win what will be a close election, he needs to up his game.