57 posts from January 2014

January 30, 2014

I also discuss some "other things" on the video...so please take a look.

As far as the "main talk" of the storm next week. It looks like the trend on the 2 most reliable models is for the main low to track very close to Louisville next Tue/Wed. Both models keep our temps at the ground level from 32 to 36 degrees. Very close to freezing rain...with plain heavy COLD rain more likely. But it is very close.

Here is the bufkit image for the event (AT LOUISVILLE)...you read this right to left in time.

Blue is snow. Red is freezing rain. Green is rain. You can see the weekend systems (anything frozen then looks light) and you can see the next Tue/Wed system where it is back and forth with red/green as the model is struggling with how much low level cold air is available.

With this system NOT EVEN ON THE MAPS in the lower 48...I would expect more changes as we get into Sunday and Monday when the storm is truly sampled by the upper air network. This storm could go either way...so all we can tell you right now is the model trends and what is MOST likely given the setup in our area---and that would be more for rain than anything. We shall see.

We are finally getting above freezing this afternoon (even though it still feels super cold today). Rain moves in Friday night and Saturday. As the rain ends Saturday night-Sunday morning, the temperatures will be dropping. That's going to set us up for flurries, snow, sleet and freezing rain next week... including the potential for ice on Tuesday.

Here's your hour by hour forecast for today. Even though it will be nice to get the warm up, we will still have winds that could make it feel colder.

We will get some weekend rain Friday night and Saturday. As the cold front moves through Saturday, the cold air may catch up to the ending edge of the rain to give us a quick burst of snow. This could put a very light accumulation on the ground for Super Bowl Sunday morning, and the cold air could give us a few flurries on Sunday too.

One of the biggest concerns with the forecast is the potential for freezing rain on Tuesday. We have a classic set up with cold air in place, an approaching low and a warm front moving over WAVE Country allowing the precipitation to fall as rain, then freeze once it hits the ground. This is still a few days away, so we will be watching it closely, but I wanted to let you know of the potential ahead of time. If we do get freezing rain, icy roads could be a problem for Tuesday and Wednesday.

I also wanted to share this picture with you that A. Dorsey II posted on our WAVE 3 WEATHER facebook page. This is the Ohio River starting to ice over! It's been awhile since that has happened. The brief warm up will melt some of that ice over the next few days.

January 29, 2014

Before I get into the models...let me be clear--- I am only showing the latest data. We are not forecasting a snow or ice storm at this point for next week. Just a "system of interest". You are going to hear lots of things on social media about this storm and who is saying what ...everyone is entitled to their own thoughts. Remember, models are just guiding tools for us to use---you should not pick a part the data this far in advance.

The trend is still there for a deep low to move out of TX into the TN Valley by next Wednesday morning.

The models keep flipping around on the track and amount of low level cold air.

GFS is a bit flatter today with the track ...and therefore not as intense on the snow. It does put parts of our area in a freezing rain risk along with plain heavy rain. A flatter solution means less warm air gets involved.

EURO is back to a look of yesterday afternoon with a low track into TN and SE KY. It suggests a rain to ice to snow setup.

Here is the precip map by sunrise Wed. Here is the surface temp: bold white line is 32°

GEM (Canadian) is still very robust with snow across southern IN with its latest update.

MY THOUGHTS: This actually reminds me of the Dec 5th storm. Where we see rain then sleet/freezing rain then ends as a bit of snow. But here is the thing folks...we have 2 more waves that will pass through our area BEFORE this storm even forms. If they are off track from the models...then this bad boy will be too. We are only discussing this system as it falls within our 7day outlook and I have always said I will share the data with you guys...along with REASONING behind it. Lows that track from TX into TN usually are good setups for snow locally. But a very strong low can overwhelm our area with warm air---seen this MANY times. So that is why confidence remains quite low with this. It deserves a great deal of attention however due to the amount of moisture it contains...someone in the Ohio Valley is going to get smacked hard with wintry weather and on the warmer side---risk for flooding. We just have to figure out where. We should have a better handle on it by the weekend when it will enter our upper air network. Until then...it's pretty much guesses and gut feelings. Thanks for your patience and dedication to the blog!

We are all tired of the bitter cold and could use some warmer temperatures for a change, right? Even though it is still going to be cold today, we will begin a warming trend this afternoon. Warmer air from the southwest will bring up the mercury over the next few days. A bonus for today, we get wall to wall sunshine!

Here's your hour by hour forecast as we head through this sunny Wednesday. Winds could give us wind chill temperatures from time to time, but our high today is eleven degrees warmer than yesterday, so at least we are heading in the right direction.

The south still has many Winter Storm Watches/Warnings/Advisories due to the snow and ice that moved through. Some folks are still stranded unable to get home yet, but much of the Southeast US will warm above freezing this afternoon, so that should help to thaw out the roads.

The best comparison I've heard today about the stand-still Atlanta traffic, "This is how The Walking Dead started." ha ha

January 28, 2014

I think social media has covered the southern storm well---I will leave that off this post.

Locally, we dipped to 3 above in Louisville last night. That was our 7th time below 10° this month. I did speak with Mark Jarvis over at the NWS ...he advised that this would not make the top 10 coldest January's ever due to a warm-up we had mid month. Otherwise...it would have been.

Looking ahead...well. We do warm up.

As that process happens...moisture will stream in. At first...we should see virga (precip on radar...doesn't reach the ground) on Friday to start...but eventually it will. It likely will be in a snow/sleet mode. Areas north of 64 may see a quick 1/2" to 1" of accumulation before the warmer air wins out and changes us to rain.

Saturday looks to be warm enough for all rain in the area as the main low travels well to our north. Highs will be tricky depending on the strenght of the SW flow and any sun breaks. 40s look likely, but I would not rule out 50s.

Cold air will rush back in Saturday night..so this may briefly end as snow before ending just before sunrise Sunday.

We get a couple days of "quiet". Sunday and Monday.

Then we get to Tuesday and Wednesday of next week. All signs point to a MAJOR storm that will develop in Texas during this time. The models are having a field day with the track/strength of this storm. It has almost been comical to see the models flip around so much.

Let me show you.

Here is the various snow amount maps from the EURO.

Yesterday's Run:

Last night's Run:

Today's Run:

You can see the back and forth it has with the snow path.

The latest GFS is actually similar to the latest EURO...thought it, too, has been shifting a lot.

STORM THOUGHTS: The pattern does favor a deep low pressure. The high to the north will help determine the path on this one. History has proved that strong lows out of TX usually trend more NORTH in time than south. But given how close this rain/snow line will be to our area...and the amount of moisture this will have--it needs to be watched carefully. The models will keep waffling around for a few more days so I would not get too excited just yet...nor disappointed.

We are right in the heart of this arctic outbreak today, but that means we will soon be coming out of it. Highs today will be near 14°... that's 30° below normal for this time of year! Our warming trend kicks off tomorrow, but it won't be until Thursday afternoon that we warm above the freezing mark. The winds today will add insult to injury with wind chills for most of the day, which will make it feel like the single digits.

January 27, 2014

Temps on track for lows between 0 and 5 above if no snowpack. 0 to -5 if you still have a decent snowpack on the ground. Wind chills look bitter...but not off the charts. They should average around 10 below by morning. Northern sections may see numbers closer to 15 below. Nevertheless, cold...so make sure to cover exposed skin!!

We went over all the data this afternoon about the pattern for the weekend and next week. Still no clear answers. I encourage you to watch the video blog on the previous post about the pattern ahead.

We will be watching Friday-Saturday carefully. Depending on how much cold air is at the surface during this time...we may see this next weather maker start in the frozen form. GFS continues to hint at this. We should see temps rise above freezing during daylight hours..esp Saturday---so any morning problems look limited if that happens.

Just something we will be keeping an eye on. The EURO has us in the 50s Saturday. So we still have conflicting pieces of data.

Looking into next week...2 main setups remain. Does the southeast ridge return as the EURO says and helps push the track of a strong low either along the Ohio River or to our north? If so...this is where the main snow would fall with that system next Tue-Wed. Impressive snow!!

GFS has a flatter look to the jet stream flow. Therefore a weaker low pressure...and brings the snow area closer to the Ohio River as a result.

Right now...the EURO has more support than the GFS. So we are leaning that way. But we have to take any part of the extended forecast with extreme caution. Confidence right now in the longer term is very low right now.

Quick video today discussing the short-term with more of a focus on the outlook for the next 10 days.

Very complicated setup for our area so expect the 7 day outlook to be adjusted often. It is important to keep checking back in for updates as we now face 2 jet stream influences on our area...the Polar Jet and the SubTropical Jet. For most of January...we have mainly had just the Polar Jet to deal with.

Here we go again... another round with the Polar Vortex. Arctic air blasting right through WAVE Country today will travel all the way down to the Gulf of Mexico where they will feel the chill as well. The high temperature for today will be 50°, which we reached shortly after midnight. The mercury has been dropping ever since, and the temperature will keep dropping until tomorrow morning when we bottom out at sub-zero temperatures. Just to add insult to injury, the winds bringing in this arctic blast are also giving us wind chill temperatures, making it feel even colder!

Lawrence, Jackson and Jennings Counties go under a Wind Chill Advisory until Tuesday at 1pm. Their wind chill temperatures are expected to get down to -20°.

January 26, 2014

The video will cover what to expect later tonight through Wednesday when it comes to this later Arctic front.

I think the real "buzz" has been over the pattern for the weekend and next week.

There are signs of a light snow event on Thursday.

But from Friday onward---the pattern is much more complicated. To be CLEAR...we are not forecasting an ice or snowstorms for our area as we head into February. The pattern does look MORE favorable for such, yes...but no specific storms/details can be given with confidence at this time.

I think the real challenges of winter forecast are ahead for us meteorologists in the coming weeks. Be patient with us :)