Three Methods for Aiding Clinical Decision Making

Abstract

The mathematical techniques to-be presented are intended as aids to the clinician’s decision making.1 The methods to be introduced do not imply that a mathematical model or theory implemented by computer can replace the clinician. The work we are about to discuss shows that decision aids, utilising the clinician’s knowledge and expertise, can improve on unaided judgement and choice. Diagnosis, prognosis and treatment decisions made under conditions of uncertainty and including the clinician’s differential valuation of the consequences of the decisions, can be improved. This extra precision is due to the optimal combination of the information the clinician already possesses rather than the clinician’s access to extra information.