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UK Forex Data Slips

Forex Weekly News

The UK data has slipped a little in the natural flow of things, with retail sales lower after a poor showing in inflation and unemployment this week too. Stocks on Friday were relatively flat, in fact most markets were pretty quiet apart from oil, off 0.5%.

I want you all to watch this video. It is where I started back in 1994 in the financial markets, check out the technology those days, this was made in ‘97 if memory serves. Ah the memories, good to see some old faces I haven’t seen in years. But what I want you all to see and hear is what Rambo says about trading about 2 minutes in, riding the comet. It is what we try to teach you all, that you cannot predict where prices are going to go, the market will tell you and you must jump on board and ride that wave.

Only other headline of note was the G20 and central bankers meeting in Sydney. Stating that they will continue the accommodative stance and even add to stimulation of the global economy over the next 5 years. The timing of this will depend on data but they aim for a collective GDP of +2%. Whilst emerging market concerns were aired in a plea for policy coordination and calibration, as industrial nations turn the tide that brought the world out of the 2008 crisis, not much will be done about it though, as they put the onus on the emerging economies to handle their own policies to deal with the spill over of tapering and growth from the stronger counterparts.

Finally, I saw this headline from Deutsche, an interesting call of 65¢ on the Aussie. Whilst I too see further weakness as Hockey and Co attempt to clear the economy for growth I am not that aggressive a bear, I think 80 or worst 75 before coming back into the 90’s by this time next year. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-02-21/aussie-poised-for-weekly-drop-as-deutsche-says-it-may-fall-20-.html

A quiet week ahead for data flow, so let the markets do what they do and let us follow the flow of money.

DATA HIGHLIGHTS TODAY – German Business Climate. EUR CPI.

AUDUSD – An inside seller bar and not something I would trade from. The comet’s path is not yet clear. A lower high/lower low today would clear things up for us. Resistance: 9085/9167/9300 Support: 8654/8550/8300

EURUSD – An inside buyer bar, you know now what to do, nothing. Waiting to see the pullback to the average followed by buying action. Resistance: 13733/13830/14065 Support: 13488/13420/13266

GBPUSD – A volatile engulfing bearish bar on Friday. The phase 2 retracement to the average is well in place now. Waiting for the turnaround later in the week once it gets to the average. Resistance: 16785/1.69/1.70 Support: 16300/15950/15830

NZDUSD – An inside seller bar, on the average, in the middle of the 82/84 range. Can you get any less committed? Resistance: 8400/8475/8535 Support: 8090/7925/7714

USDCAD – A large bearish test bar. Hard to see what it will do hear as price is not exhausted. Resistance: 11170/11233 Support: 10859/10715

USDJPY – A HHHL but still hanging tight to the 50ema. A break through 103 would see the start of a new phase 1 long. Resistance: 105.57/108.35/110.50 Support: 100.62/100/99.80