Paul George trade: Why the Indiana Pacers should be patient

Pacers President Kevin Pritchard speaks about the future of player Paul George, and the team's haul during the NBA draft, Bankers Life Fieldhouse, Indianapolis, Thursday, June 22, 2017. (Robert Scheer/IndyStar)
Bob Scheer/IndyStar

Pacers President Kevin Pritchard listens for a reporter's question about the fate of player Paul George, on draft night, Bankers Life Fieldhouse, Indianapolis, Thursday, June 22, 2017.(Photo11: Robert Scheer/IndyStar)

Indiana Pacers fans were understandably disappointed that team president Kevin Pritchard was unable to pull off a deal for Paul George during Thursday's NBA draft.

If you're reading this story you almost certainly know the context: George's agent informed the Pacers last weekend that he would not return to the team after the 2017-18 season, the decision became public and Pritchard now has little leverage in dealing his All-Star.

Pritchard explained his decision not to deal George Thursday night:

“Everybody thought (Thursday) was a trigger date because draft picks were involved, but that doesn’t mean you can’t do things into the future – future draft picks, players today, young players, older and established players,” Pritchard said. “We’re keeping everything on the board. There’s so much other stuff that doesn’t include draft picks that we decided to stay put and look at everything that’s on the board in the future. We’re not going to make a bad deal. We want to get what we want and that’s what we pursue."

Those 40 picks have produced a total of 18 players who were NBA starters for at least one season (61 seasons total), but only six have been starters for more than 2 seasons: Parker (16), Aaron Afflalo (9), Kendrick Perkins (8), Jamaal Tinsley (5), Ben Udrih (4) and Demare Carroll (3). Exempting the 2016 picks, 10 of these picks played in 82 or fewer games in their careers. In other words, the Pacers are more likely to get a bust than a starter.

There have certainly been effective players selected in those spots. Utah's Rudy Gobert was second-team All-NBA last season and looks as if he could quickly establish himself as the second-best player in this group. Leandro Barbosa had a long, effective career. Perkins was a useful defensive-oriented center. Afflalo was a legitimate NBA scorer at his peak.

(What should the Pacers be aiming for? A top 10 pick. Using basketball-reference.com's win shares — an attempt to put one number on each player's value — there's a significant drop in the return on the pick from 10 to 11. Picks 11 through 30 are, essentially, a coin flip, though higher picks tend to be slightly better. A top 10 pick is unlikely to deliver a player as good as George, but it might.)

But this trade would have turned an All-Star into one rotation player and a 30 percent chance at a second.