Paul Ryan as election game changer

"Game Change" is the name of the HBO film detailing John McCain's attempt to change a lagging '08 campaign by gambling on Sarah Palin as a running mate.

Now, Mitt Romney selects Paul Ryan in another "game change" effort. Let's ponder some questions about similarities and differences and the odds on this gamble.

Q. What's similar?

A. Each time, the Republican presidential candidate was trailing, wasn't exactly exciting the voters and was having trouble getting the party's conservative base fired up. Palin brought some excitement and fired up the base. Ryan has done the same.

Q. What's different?

A. Palin brought more of an immediate boost. In initial opinion sampling, Ryan polled the worst as a vice presidential choice since the ill-planned introduction of Dan Quayle in 1988. But while Palin crashed by campaign close, with negative impact on McCain's chances, Ryan could have more staying power.

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Q. Why could Ryan hold up better?

A. Palin wasn't ready for prime time. Ryan is. He won't have trouble answering what newspapers he reads. He may not be a foreign policy expert, but he won't talk about his ability to see Russia. Palin fans mistakenly thought it was peachy keen that she wasn't a Washington insider. Ryan, however, will come across as more ready to step into the leading role in Washington because he is a career politician, an insider. Can't get more "inside" than House Budget Committee chairman.

Q. So, is this gamble going to work?

A. Depends on how voters, especially the oft-decisive independent and centrist voters, come to view the "Ryan budget" and changes proposed by the budget's author on Medicare, Social Security and the vast number of federal programs that Ryan would cut.

Q. What's the best case scenario for Romney?

A. That those key voters won't believe Romney is for all those cuts, especially changing Medicare "as we know it," but that he is determined to follow some of Ryan's efforts to cut spending in order to avoid fiscal disaster and actually to save rather than destroy popular federal programs.

Q. Worst case scenario for Romney?

A. That those voters will conclude Romney must be for changing Medicare to vouchers, privatizing Social Security and cutting education and such because he put Ryan on the ticket, that he's just using a federal debt scare to promote his tax cuts, not to remedy woes in popular programs.

Q. Will introduction of a real difference in governmental philosophy lead to a higher level of campaign discussion?

A. No.

Q. Will selection of Ryan affect the presidential outcome in Indiana?

A. No. Romney is well ahead in Indiana. Ryan, even if a drag on the ticket nationally, wouldn't enable Obama to pull another Hoosier upset.

Q. Will it affect the outcome in Michigan?

A. No. Obama is well ahead in Michigan. Ryan, even if he boosts the ticket nationally, wouldn't enable Romney to win Michigan.

Q. OK, where will it make a difference?

A. Romney-Ryan obviously target Virginia, where the running mate's introduction occurred. It's close there, with Obama now just a little ahead. They also hope the choice will cement a win in North Carolina, also close, with Romney now just a little ahead, and will lead to carrying Ryan's home state, Wisconsin, even though Obama has a fairly good margin there. The worst fear of Republican strategists is that emphasis on Ryan's Medicare views will bring defeat in Florida.

Q. Will Ryan affect Senate and House races?

A. Democrats hope it will. Republicans hope it won't. Democratic candidates such as Joe Donnelly, Senate nominee in Indiana, welcome focus on Medicare and Social Security. Donnelly quickly hit Republican opponent Richard Mourdock as backing Ryan budget plans to "dismantle" Medicare and for questioning the constitutionality of Social Security. Some Republican candidates wanted to steer clear of debate over Medicare, Social Security and Ryan budget cuts and just talk about jobs. Now, they can't.

Q. Will a "Game Change" sequel depict Paul Ryan as another Sarah Palin?

A. No. And Tina Fey won't be able to portray him on "Saturday Night Live." But whether this "Game Change" brings a happy ending or another losing gamble for a Republican presidential nominee will be told in chapters yet to be written.

Jack Colwell is a columnist for The Tribune. Write to him in care of The Tribune or by e-mail at jcolwell@comcast.net.