GOP: We'll take back the House

GOP leaders have privately settled on a strategy to win back the House by putting the vast majority of their money and energy into attacking Democrats — and turning this election into a national referendum on the party in power.

House Minority Whip Eric Cantor of Virginia, one of 10 leaders who attended a strategy session in Annapolis, Md., this week, said the party will attack Democrats relentlessly for the stimulus, health care and cap-and-trade bills. Internally, Republicans call it the “80-20 strategy,” which, loosely interpreted, means spending 80 percent of the time whacking Democrats and the remainder talking up their own ideas.

Story Continued Below

Cantor said he is more confident than ever this gives Republicans an authentic chance of netting the 40 seats they need, especially after reviewing data provided by five GOP pollsters during the leadership retreat. It showed what other public surveys reveal: widespread unease with Democratic policies.

Cantor conceded that the public is far from thrilled with the GOP — in fact, the party’s image is worse than the Democrats’ — but he argues that Republicans will benefit most from the public loathing of Washington. “I don’t think that we Republicans can even remember what it feels like to have wind at our back,” Cantor said. “We can win back the majority.”

Is this really possible? Independent analysts say it’s doubtful — but not implausible, for the very reasons Cantor cites. More likely, Republicans will trim a big chunk of the majority, perhaps by two dozen or more, but fall short of the 40-seat pickup they’d need to reclaim the majority, those analysts say.

What follows is the Republicans’ case for how and why they can pull it off. (The accompanying story explains why Democrats think otherwise.)

Democrats are in the dumps

Republicans aren’t as delusional as some think: They know they aren’t going to win a popularity contest with the public right now. But Republicans don’t think they have to, as long as the public remains down on Democratic rule.

“It is in the mind-set of the public right now: Washington’s out of control,” Cantor said. “They do not have the economic security in their life yet. The 10 months’ time [until the election] is not enough for people to regain their sense of security, no matter where this unemployment rate goes.”

A newly released CNN/Opinion Research poll shows a majority of Americans disapprove of the president’s handing of every domestic issue surveyed — health care policy, the economy, taxes, unemployment and the budget deficit, some by double-digit margins.

Cantor contends that President Barack Obama’s agenda is so unpopular that he offers this advice to the president: “Stay the course.”

Cantor’s chief deputy whip, Rep. Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.), said the administration’s suggestion that the stimulus would keep unemployment under 8 percent is “going to be the equivalent of [former President] George [W.] Bush landing on the [USS Abraham] Lincoln and saying, ‘Mission accomplished.’”

A wave is building

It’s not often that a party picks up 40 seats on the power of its ideas — at least not in contemporary elections.

The 1994 election, which saw the GOP nab 54 seats, was a reaction to President Bill Clinton and a Congress long dominated by Democrats. The 2006 election, which saw Democrats win back control, was largely a rejection of Bush-era Republicans. But signs of a similar wave — the size and power of which are unknowable — are out there. Poll after poll is showing Democratic incumbents are “upside-down” — more unpopular than they are popular.

“There is a sense that the growth in spending and what’s going on here is out of control,” Cantor said.

McCarthy laughed off the Democrats’ talking point that they won’t be taken by surprise; they know they’re in a toxic environment.