The nation's economy will slide into a mild recession by early next year--if one hasn't already begun--and the rebound will be sluggish at best, three economists said Friday. And Orange County, which nearly missed the last mild recession in 1980 because of its vigorous economy--is likely to be hit hard this time around, warned one member of the panel addressing the annual Orange County Economic Outlook Conference.

Groundbreaking on new U.S. homes slowed in October, but not as much as economists expected, the government said Monday in a report that reinforced guarded optimism about the economy. Housing starts fell 1.3% last month to an annual rate of 1.552million from 1.572 million in September, the Commerce Department said. "The housing market may be fading, but it's not falling apart," said Joel Naroff of Naroff Economic Advisors in Holland, Pa.

Paced by sharp declines in California, nationwide housing construction in October fell to its lowest level since the recession of the early 1980s, the Commerce Department reported Tuesday. Triggered by plunging consumer confidence and the growing inability of builders to obtain loans, the pace of housing construction has now fallen for nine straight months, the longest string of declines since such statistics were first tabulated in 1959.

Investors could have constructed a model portfolio this year simply with home-building stocks. Shares of the nation's major housing producers have been surging since mid-summer, owing to growing optimism about economic and demographic trends that seem to bode well for continued strong demand for new homes. Indeed, despite numerous signs of weakness in other sectors of the economy, the new-housing market has remained relatively robust.

CalMat Co., a Los Angeles-based producer of asphalt and ready-mixed concrete, is expected to announce today that it has agreed to be acquired by the nation's largest maker of construction materials for $760 million in cash. The combination of CalMat and Birmingham, Ala.-based Vulcan Materials Co., if approved by shareholders, would create the nation's largest company specializing in sand, gravel and crushed stone, known in the building industry as "aggregates."

The American skyscraper, which has reigned over urban skylines for more than a century, has fallen out of favor in recent years as a towering symbol of civic pride and corporate ego. Skyscraper construction has virtually dried up because of the overbuilding of the 1980s and the national recession in the early 1990s. And the future doesn't look very bright, either.

In an attempt to defuse an increasingly volatile trade issue, U.S. and Japanese officials Tuesday announced a plan that would allow American builders to bid for billions of dollars of construction work in Japan, including airports, roads, bridges and buildings. The accord came after two years of on-and-off negotiations, prompted by growing White House protests that Japan was unfairly blocking U.S.

Name an American city--anyplace with a population of 100,000 or more. Chances are that city's either building or planning a new art museum, or expanding and renovating an existing one. If not, it probably opened a new museum or added a wing to its old facility within the last few years. From New York to San Diego, and Milwaukee to Houston--not forgetting Cincinnati; Davenport, Iowa; and Kansas City, Mo.

After more than 30 years of slugging away on the fringes of Japan's construction market, PAE International still had trouble hiring local subcontractors, so strong was the taboo against collaborating with foreigners. When a PAE executive complained about the dilemma in an interview televised here last year, however, he was quickly surprised by telephone calls from several sympathetic Japanese subcontractors. It seemed that a major shift in attitude was afoot. They were actually asking for work.

Led by the biggest increase in private residential and commercial outlays in eight months, construction spending grew in November for the fourth straight month despite higher interest rates. The Commerce Department said Wednesday that total spending rose 0.7% to $522.7 billion at a seasonally adjusted annual rate. A 1.9% advance in private outlays offset a 2.7% decline in government expenditures. It was the largest gain in private spending since a 2.

Housing construction, dampened by an upswing in mortgage rates, took its biggest dive in six years last month--down 11.2% from February. Builders began work on new homes at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.60 million in March, the Commerce Department said. It marked the sharpest one-month drop since January 1994, when housing starts fell by 17%. The weakness, which followed a 3.6% rise in February, came from a steep decline in condominiums, apartments and other multifamily housing.

Kaufman & Broad Home Corp. and Centex Homes, two of the nation's largest home builders, announced they will eliminate the use of wood from old-growth forests in their new-home construction. Los Angeles-based Kaufman & Broad--which builds about 22,000 homes a year--in partnership with the environmental group Natural Resources Defense Council, is developing a plan to phase out dozens of wood products from endangered forests, including Douglas fir and cedar.

Housing construction shot up 7.1% in December, the Commerce Department reported Wednesday, capping off the best year for housing since 1986 despite the fact that mortgage rates were creeping higher. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve said its latest review of the U.S. economy showed strong business activity around the nation, with retailers recording a strong Christmas and manufacturing companies enjoying a broad-based rebound.

One of the driving forces in the economy slowed abruptly in November as rising mortgages drove construction of new homes to the weakest pace in seven months, the Commerce Department said Friday. Housing starts fell 2.3% last month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.6 million units, the slowest pace since April, after a flat October. All of the weakness was in single-family home construction; starts of apartment buildings and other multi-unit housing rose in November.

Kaufman & Broad Home Corp., the largest U.S. home builder, said its U.S. home orders fell 0.5% in October from a year earlier, the first such decline in nearly two years. The Los Angeles-based company also said it will buy back as many as 4 million shares on the open market or in privately negotiated transactions. The company repurchased all of the 2.5 million shares it authorized in a previous buyback. Kaufman & Broad shares rose 50 cents to close at $21.69 on the New York Stock Exchange.

Huge demand for new apartments, office buildings, warehouses and other commercial properties will build over the next 30 years as the U.S. population increases 26%, according to a speaker at the National Assn. of Real Estate Investment Trusts' annual convention last week in Los Angeles. But it remains to be seen if that big boost to the real estate industry will do anything for long-depressed stock prices of real estate investment trusts.

One of the driving forces in the economy slowed abruptly in November as rising mortgages drove construction of new homes to the weakest pace in seven months, the Commerce Department said Friday. Housing starts fell 2.3% last month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.6 million units, the slowest pace since April, after a flat October. All of the weakness was in single-family home construction; starts of apartment buildings and other multi-unit housing rose in November.

Kaufman & Broad Home Corp., the largest U.S. home builder, said its U.S. home orders fell 0.5% in October from a year earlier, the first such decline in nearly two years. The Los Angeles-based company also said it will buy back as many as 4 million shares on the open market or in privately negotiated transactions. The company repurchased all of the 2.5 million shares it authorized in a previous buyback. Kaufman & Broad shares rose 50 cents to close at $21.69 on the New York Stock Exchange.

Rising mortgage rates sent a chill through the nation's home-building industry last month as new-home sales fell by 12.8%. Nationwide, sales of new single-family homes dropped to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 811,000 units. The September decline was the largest drop since January 1994, when sales fell by 24%, the Commerce Department reported Friday. Surprised by the weak showing, economists were quick to blame mortgage interest rates, which rose to 7.

The pace of new office construction in the United States rose 6% in August from the prior month, reigniting concern among real estate investors that development may exceed demand for new space, according to PaineWebber Inc. New office construction starts stood at 265.2 million square feet on an annualized basis last month, PaineWebber said, citing statistics compiled by F.W. Dodge, a division of the McGraw-Hill Cos. A less-volatile three-month average of starts fell 2%.