Northampton County property owners will see an increase in real estate taxes next year, or a cut in services if the current tax rate is maintained, according to Director of Fiscal Affairs Charles L. "Pete" Houck.

"If you don't cut programs, there's no way you're going to be able to do it (pass a budget) without a tax increase," he said yesterday.

"At this point, I obviously don't have any idea at all what the millage increase will be - if there will be one at all. But if there isn't going to be one, I can tell you there's going to be a lot of long faces around here because we're going to have to do some serious trimming of programs."

The county's millage rate stands at 20.8 mills. It was raised by 2.9 mills last year, the first increase in seven years. One mill of tax raises about $875,000.

Although the budget proposal is not due for submission to County Council until Oct. 17, department heads have forwarded their requests for the coming year to Houck and County Executive Eugene R. Hartzell. Meetings to review those requests will begin next week.

Although the county's property tax base is growing at the expected rate of 2 percent to 3 percent each year, a number of factors have combined to cloud the county's financial picture.

In the state budget approved this year, Gov. Robert P. Casey deleted roughly $375,000 that the county would have received for the operation of district magistrates' offices. That would translate to slightly less than one- half mill in property taxes.

In addition, actual revenues did not meet projections from the personal property tax, a 4-mill levy on certain stocks, bonds, mutual fund shares, mortgages, notes, judgments and other holdings.

In 1987, the county sent out about 90,000 forms in a successful effort to increase compliance with the tax. The number of active accounts rose from about 4,500 to more than 12,000. Collections went from $750,000 to $1.35 million.

Projected revenue from the tax for 1988 was $1.37 million, but Houck said collections have "dropped some (below $1.35 million), because peopleare getting out of taxable investments." Last year's stock market crash also reduced the value of some investments.

Also among the decisions that have to be made before the final document can be prepared is the status of requests from various departments for 62 new positions. Those requests are pending before council's personnel committee.

Houck said his office might project funding in the budget for the new positions recommended by Hartzell and let council fund others out of the county's contingency fund if they also are approved.

"When you add up the bottom line on those positions, you're talking some serious money," Houck said, "and a lot of those positions are funded by local revenue sources." It's estimated that if all of the new jobs are approved, it could cost the county about the equivalent of one mill in real estate taxes.

He said any tax increase or program cutback might be reduced by delaying some capital needs, but any purchases or projects still would be needed eventually.

Houck's department is about three weeks behind schedule in its budget preparations, mostly due to staff changes in key areas. Senior accountant Christopher Jones, for instance, recently took another job.

"Obviously, we'll get it done in time," Houck said, "(even) if we have to be in until midnight every night of the week between now and then . . . and Saturdays and Sundays."

After the budget proposal is delivered, County Council has until Dec. 16 to adopt a spending plan for 1989.