August is generally known among journalists as the "silly season," during
which precious little hard news is available and media people are often
reduced to digging up man-bites-dog stories in order to generate copy. This
August has proven an exception, not just because of the conflict in Chechnya
and the heating up of the U.S. presidential race, but also because of one of
the more bizarre developments involving IFOR and the Bosnian Serbs.

It now seems that NATO peacekeepers avoided possible contact with Bosnian Serb
commander Gen. Ratko Mladic rather than be forced to arrest the indicted war
criminal. Or, as the headline in the Berlin daily Taz put it on 15 August,
"IFOR let Mladic off the hook." IFOR admitted on 14 August that its inspectors
had left the Bosnian Serb military headquarters at Han Pijesak on 10 August,
not because the Serbs denied them access, as IFOR originally claimed, but
because the inspectors wanted to avoid "a close encounter" with Mladic, as
Nasa Borba noted on 15 August (see OMRI Special Report, 13 August 1996).

The Serbs reportedly had told the NATO visitors that they could see what they
wanted to only with Mladic as their guide, but IFOR said it would not accept
any conditions. The peacekeepers, moreover, are obliged to arrest indicted war
criminals if they come across them, but NATO has turned a blind eye to Mladic
and his civilian counterpart Radovan Karadzic on numerous occasions in the
past. An IFOR spokesman said that their group of seven officers armed with
pistols thought it would "not have been prudent" to risk a confrontation with
Mladic's 300 heavily-armed bodyguards.

In any event, IFOR then began to show some teeth. It took two unprecedented
steps, namely to withdraw its liaison officers from Pale on 11 August and to
activate Operation Fear Naught in the Republika Srpska the next day. That
operation raised an already heightened state of alert for IFOR, consolidated
NATO troops in more readily defensible positions, and effectively ordered out
foreign aid workers and other non-military personnel. The stage thus appeared
to be set for military action against the Serbs, who would find it more
difficult to take Western hostages or otherwise retaliate against IFOR.

The point seems to have been made, because NATO's negotiators in Pale soon
found their Serbian counterparts to be most agreeable. By 12 August all was
set, and NATO Secretary-General Javier Solana joined IFOR commander Gen.
George Joulwan for a meeting with Bosnian Serb acting President Biljana
Plavsic. She called the whole affair "a small misunderstanding," and, willy-
nilly, accompanied IFOR inspectors by helicopter back to Han Pijesak the next
day.

This was certainly a strange series of events, to say the least. NATO finally
showed firmness that produced compliance, but only after it had been taunted.
And the Alliance was ultimately left embarrassed once the truth about what
happened on 10 August finally emerged. It may be that the Serbs' behavior at
their mountain stronghold reflected Mladic's well-known sense of humor (he
keeps 23 goats named after politicians he does not like, including U.S.
Ambassador to the UN Madeleine Albright). It may also be, however, that IFOR's
reluctance to confront war criminals in the past and its fondness for avoiding
confrontation tempted the Serbs to once again display inat, or stubborn
defiance, and see what they could get away with.

IFOR, moreover, has refused to help enforce the civilian provisions of the
Dayton agreement, and the international community in general has been
reluctant to confront the nationalists on all three sides over violations of
principles such as the right to freedom of movement or of refugees to go home.
It should thus not come as a surprise that the nationalists are already busy
disregarding the principle that Bosnia is a multiethnic state and seeking to
consolidate their control over their respective "ethnically pure" territories
in the 14 September elections (see ).

Against this background, U.S. Secretary of State Warren Christopher met in
Geneva with Bosnian President Alija Izetbegovic and his Serbian and Croatian
counterparts, Slobodan Milosevic and Franjo Tudjman. As was the case at
similar gatherings in the past, all parties agreed to implement their previous
promises and agreements, many of which have gone unkept. Christopher gave a
pep-talk on the importance of the elections, and the three presidents agreed
that they must be "successful," Nasa Borba and Oslobodjenje reported. What
they really understand by that remains, of course, to be seen.

Washington and its allies are obviously hoping that the elections will come
off relatively smoothly and enable IFOR to declare victory and leave around
the end of the year. If, however, the multiethnic Bosnia of Dayton is replaced
on the ground by three antagonistic nationalist states, those who shaped
the Dayton peace and then failed to enforce it will have no one but themselves
to blame. -- Patrick Moore

IFOR troops destroyed the first batch of contraband Bosnian Serb munitions at
around 7:00 CET on 19 August, international media reported. This first batch,
reportedly consisting of at least several hundred tons of material, was part
of an ammunition dump, consisting of "rockets, packets of TNT, small arms
ammunition and about 5,700 cases of anti-tank and anti-personnel mines" found
in a former schoolhouse in Margetici exactly two weeks ago, Onasa reported on
18 August. Onasa also added that Bosnian Serb reaction to the destruction was
hostile, with the Bosnian Serb army dubbing the destruction plan, or Operation
Volcano, "a very dangerous provocation" and saying the munitions dump was kept
in accordance with the terms of the Dayton accord. Destroying the rest of
the munitions is expected to take almost a week. -- Stan Markotich

At the first joint session of the new Mostar City Council on 14 August, Croats
and Muslims elected Ivica Prskalo, a Croat, as mayor of Mostar, international
media reported. Safet Orucevic, former mayor of the Muslim-held part of Mostar,
was elected his deputy. The Croats had tried to postpone the session until 19
August, but Sir Martin Garrod, the EU's special envoy for Mostar, rejected
that proposal. The agenda of the first session provided only for the election
of a new major and his deputy, but the Croats also wanted to elect a new city
council president. Hamdija Jahic, a Muslim who had been elected to that post
at an earlier city council session boycotted by the Croats, said electing a
new president was "out of the question," Oslobodjenje reported. As a
compromise, Vjekoslav Kordic, a Croat, was elected council deputy president. --
Daria Sito Sucic

Croatian President Franjo Tudjman on 19 August held talks on Brioni Island
with senior Bosnian Croat officials to discuss the phased abolition of the
Croatian ministate of Herceg-Bosna, international and local media reported.
Kresimir Zubak, the president of the Muslim-Croat federation, said the Bosnian
Croats will respect the 31 August deadline for Herceg-Bosna's dissolution, as
agreed with their Muslim partners over the weekend. Following talks with
Tudjman, Zubak said that "the ball is now in our [Muslim] partners' court."
Meanwhile, Bosnian Premier Hasan Muratovic, on an official visit to The Hague,
said the Bosnian general elections would be compromised if Herceg-Bosna is not
dissolved by 14 September, AFP reported. -- Daria Sito Sucic

On 8 August, the Croatian government denied charges by the UNHCR that it is
blocking the return of ethnic Serb refugees to Croatia, Reuters reported. That
same day 35 Bosnian Croats from Bugojno blockaded Bildt's Sarajevo office,
demanding information on the 21 missing Croats from that central Bosnian town
whom the Muslims took prisoner in 1993. Meanwhile, Bildt's spokesman, Colum
Murphy, announced that Vitomir Popovic, the Serb representative on the
commission to decide the fate of the strategic Brcko area, did not show up for
that group's first meeting. Murphy added that Popovic would be in violation of
Dayton if he does not have a good reason for his absence, AFP reported. Brcko
is likely to be a top Bosnian issue once the 14 September elections are over. -
- Patrick Moore

Plavsic told Serbian TV that the Bosnian Serbs' Republika Srpska (RS) will
"have more than 80 percent sovereignty" after the 14 September elections,
Nasa Borba reported on 14 August. This represents a climb-down from her
previous position that the vote will mean complete sovereignty. Her view is
nonetheless still in conflict with the Dayton agreement, which specifies that
Bosnia-Herzegovina is one state consisting of two "entities," namely the RS
and the Croat-Muslim federation. -- Patrick Moore

The Pale authorities have issued a statement banning further uncovering of
mass graves on their territory, AFP reported on 7 August, quoting SRNA. They
say that the Croat-Muslim side has not allowed the exhumation of what the
Serbs say are mass graves of Serbs at Glamoc and Ozren on federal territory,
and that Pale demands reciprocity. The Serbs also want a meeting with the
Croats, Muslims, High Representative Carl Bildt, and the Red Cross to discuss
a host of issues, including missing persons and prisoners of war as well as
mass graves. The Serbs are apparently embarrassed by evidence found in
previous exhumations on their territory indicating that thousands of Muslim
males were massacred after the fall of Srebrenica just over a year ago. Pale's
latest declaration appears to be a propaganda exercise aimed at blocking the
uncovering of any further evidence. On 8 August Bildt's office warned the
Serbs that their continued ban on exhumations violates the Dayton agreement,
Nasa Borba said on 9 August. -- Patrick Moore

IFOR's commander Gen. Michael Walker warned the Bosnian Serbs to "take the [14
September] elections seriously" and prevent any "angry, unruly crowd trying to
stop people from voting." He was apparently referring to the possibility of
actions against Muslims and Croats coming home to vote on what is now Serb-
held territory. Gen. Walker also noted that local Serb authorities are
interested in seeing "the voting go smoothly, [but] I am worried that this
attitude isn't shared at the top," Onasa reported on 7 August. The commander
added that IFOR is present to stop the war from being resumed but will not
police the elections. Meanwhile, on the campaign trail, the opposition Party
for Bosnia-Herzegovina (SBiH) of former Prime Minister Haris Silajdzic
announced on 5 August that it will not hold pre-election rallies. Deputy
leader Izudin Saracevic indicated that the SBiH fears provocations and
physical attacks, presumably by supporters of the leading Muslim Party of
Democratic Action. Finally, news about one particularly important group of
voters, the unemployed. The Bosnian government unemployment office said that
the job situation has reached a "critical point," with 850,000 people across
Bosnia-Herzegovina seeking work, Oslobodjenje noted. The demobilization of
soldiers on all three sides has greatly complicated what was already a very
pressing problem. -- Patrick Moore

An OSCE representative has said that 220,640 refugees have registered with
his organization to vote in the 14 September elections in Bosnia-Herzegovina,
Beta reported on 12 August. Of that number, 97,636 have opted to cast their
ballots in Serbia-Montenegro while the remainder will vote in Bosnia-
Herzegovina, with the majority of them expected to cast ballots in the
Republika Srpska. Polling in Serbia-Montenegro will take place between 28
August and 3 September, and will be supervised by OSCE monitors. According to
Beta, there are 450,000-480,000 Bosnian refugees in Serbia-Montenegro, and
some 633,584 refugees dispersed throughout 28 countries have registered to
vote in the elections. -- Stan Markotich

A Bosnian opposition rally on 10 August in Gradacac, northern Bosnia, was
disrupted by a group of supporters of the ruling Muslim Party of Democratic
Action (SDA), Onasa reported on 12 August. Youths wearing SDA T-shirts caused
a commotion and broke up the meeting, organized by the opposition Joint List,
which consists of anti-nationalist parties and one Croatian group. The Joint
List has accused the SDA of wanting the Muslim-Croatian federation to be
controlled by ethnic Muslims. The rally was staged in Gradacac because Muslims
and Croats have never stopped cooperating there and their respective national
parties -- the SDA and the Croatian Democratic Community (HDZ) -- have only
limited support there. Meanwhile, Sejfudin Tokic, vice president of the Union
of Bosnian Social Democrats, has said he is concerned about the lack of
neutrality among police officials at campaign rallies, AFP reported. -- Daria
Sito Sucic

The day after three separate explosions occurred in the northwestern Bosnian
city of Cazin, Alexander Ivanko, a UN spokesman, noted on 16 August that
violent harassment of opposition-party supporters continues there, Onasa
reported. Explosive devices were aimed at the homes of three people
campaigning on behalf of opposition candidates in Bosnia's upcoming elections.
No injuries were reported. Ivanko said the International Police Task Force was
encouraging the Cazin police to conduct a full investigation, but one of the
victims said he did not trust the police, whom, he said, had harassed him.
Meanwhile, the Joint List of Bosnia-Herzegovina, a coalition of five
opposition parties, issued a statement complaining that regional police in
Bihac on 15 August confiscated the coalition's campaign posters and leaflets,
Oslobodjenje reported on 18 August. -- Daria Sito Sucic

The Bosnian Serb Ministry of Transport and Communications on 12 August banned
the Free Election Radio Network (FERN) from broadcasting its election radio
program via the Lisina transmitter, Onasa reported on 14 August. FERN is
sponsored by the OSCE. Explaining its decision, the ministry said an
"inspection revealed the transmitter was being used without the permission of
the respective Republika Srpska ministry." A Bosnian Serb official told FERN
and the OSCE that they cannot file a complaint but that they can file a
lawsuit with the Republika Srpska Supreme Court. The ban came amid
negotiations between FERN and IFOR on the former using the latter's
transmitters to improve reception of the program in the eastern part of the
Republika Srpska. In addition to journalists from abroad, FERN employs the
local journalists from both Bosnia-Herzegovinian entities. -- Daria Sito
Sucic

. . . The OSCE Election Appeals Sub-Committee on 12 August said it has
rejected an appeal by Croatian Serb refugees to be allowed to vote in the
September elections in Bosnia-Herzegovina, Onasa reported. The Association of
Croatian Serbs in Bosnia, which made the appeal, said it represented the
interests of almost 60,000 people, some of whom had acquired real estate and
settled in the Republika Srpska. The OSCE noted that, according to preliminary
estimates, 77% of all voters living abroad have so far registered to vote in
the elections, Onasa reported on 13 August. -- Daria Sito Sucic

. [14] . . AND PENALIZES RULING BOSNIAN SERB PARTY.

The OSCE Election Appeals Subcommittee on 13 August decided that the ruling
Serb Democratic Party (SDS) in Doboj, the Republika Srpska, is guilty of
having denied humanitarian aid to refugees unless they agree to vote in their
new settlements in the upcoming Bosnian elections, Reuters reported on 15
August. The subcommittee levied a $25,000 fine against the SDS and demanded a
public apology from its list of candidates in Doboj. It also noted that
election rules had been violated in the Serb-held town of Modrica. Meanwhile,
OSCE Chairman Flavio Cotti has cast serious doubt on how free and fair the
Bosnian elections will be, AFP reported on 14 August. Cotti expressed his
"greatest concern" over freedom of movement, the return of refugees, and
prevailing attempts to create ethnically pure states. -- Daria Sito
Sucic

The SDS on 17 August issued a public apology, prompted by the OSCE, for using
humanitarian aid to manipulate voters in the towns of Doboj and Modrica,
Reuters reported. In other news, the international community's high
representative for Bosnia, Carl Bildt, visited Srebrenica and Zvornik. He
warned SDS officials there that they risk disqualification from Bosnia's
elections unless Radovan Karadzic posters disappear, Reuters reported on 18
August. An SDS official in Srebrenica said the international community can
eliminate Karadzic from public life but cannot forbid people to love him.
Srebrenica officials complained to Bildt about such problems as a shortage of
running water and electricity. In response to pleas for help, Bildt said
Bosnian Serb leaders have refused international assistance earmarked for
Bosnia-Herzegovina because they want their own independent state. -- Daria
Sito Sucic

U.S. officials said that former Bosnian prime minister and leader of the Party
for Bosnia and Herzegovina, Haris Silajdzic, plans to boycott the 14 September
vote. He feels that the ballot will be manipulated by the three dominant
nationalist parties of the Muslims, Serbs and Croats and serve to legitimize
the partition of the country along ethnic lines. Silajdzic called it
"ratification of genocide," AFP reported on 15 August. The previous day,
parliament speaker Miro Lazovic said that his Social Democratic Party and its
anti-nationalist coalition of five parties is also considering a boycott.
Still in Sarajevo, the International Crisis Group of former prime ministers,
foreign ministers, and other public figures called for the elections to be
postponed and for a new Dayton-style agreement to be worked out, Oslobodjenje
wrote on 16 August. President Alija Izetbegovic, meanwhile, condemned attacks
by his supporters on opposition rallies, Dnevni avaz said. In Belgrade,
Vreme added that the most recent incident, in Gradacac, could trigger a mass
boycott of the vote by the opposition. -- Patrick Moore

U.S. Secretary of State Warren Christopher and Bosnian President Alija
Izetbegovic on 15 August presided over the opening of the Sarajevo airport for
commercial flights for the first time since 1992, international and local
media reported. The first such flight was to Turkey. The airport was a major
battlefield during the Bosnian war and hundreds of lives were lost there.
Christopher said he had come to Sarajevo to witness "Bosnia's summer of hope"
ahead of the September general elections, AFP quoted him as saying. In an
televised address to the nation, he appealed to Bosnian voters to support the
landmark elections. -- Daria Sito Sucic

Belgrade on 13 August reaffirmed its wish for a complete normalization of
relations with Croatia and other successor states of former Yugoslavia, Nasa
Borba reported. Belgrade and Zagreb committed themselves to normalizing
bilateral relations following the meeting in Greece between Presidents
Slobodan Milosevic and Franjo Tudjman. The Belgrade authorities said current
ties with Croatia in the economic and humanitarian fields are "positive" and
stressed the importance of finding solutions to the issue of the Prevlaka
peninsula, which has been claimed by both countries. Meanwhile, Novak
Kilibarda, head of the Montenegrin People's Party, said Milosevic is not
authorized to solve the border problem of Serbia-Montenegro. He added that the
issue should be decided by the people, Nasa Borba reported on 14 August. --
Daria Sito Sucic

The talk around this northeast Bosnian town about the media company SIM has
been brought to an abrupt end after roughly two months: the municipal assembly
simply decided to transfer ownership of the firm to the Republic. The
management of the company--which owns a local radio station, a newspaper, and
a new television studio--had asked the Ministry of Information to register SIM
as an independent entity. According to a local journalist, the city's media
battle began three months ago, when the local SDS split, and Ljubisa Savic
Mauzer, who was the commander of the special unit "Panthers," founded the
Democratic Party. Some editorial board members at SIM's holdings reportedly
started to support the new party, a move which angered Pale and prompted
Karadzic himself to become involved. After the transfer of ownership, Rerica
Simic, SIM's manager and main editor, was dismissed, and a new editorial board
was named. The new board immediately accepted a new program schedule and an
editorial policy dictated by Pale. This was "the final shot for the short
period of independent media in Bijeljina," said the local source. Ex-manager
Simic explained: "the management board of SIM and the municipality government
tried to find a compromise with the state leaders. We offered to take on their
information and political programs in order to be able to keep [broadcasting]
the parts of the program that we do. They didn't accept. They called us
traitors and threatened us with all kinds of things if we kept on arguing."
Dusko Tuzlancic, a journalist and host of radio SIM, said that the assembly's
decision was illegal, because the required number of members was not present
for the voting. Nobody, however, seems to dare file a complaint with the legal
authorities. "Bijeljina has lost its first battle with Pale for independence,"
said the local journalist. -- Yvonne Badal in Sarajevo, from reports by OMRI
contacts

Brcko, an industrial town on the Sava River, again appears at the epicenter
of the Bosnian crisis. All parties involved in the implementation of the
Dayton accords have their own unique views of how to solve the problem of
Brcko's status. As each side holds a view disparate from the others, and
because this can change or a compromise can be reached at any time, it becomes
clear that the issue of Brcko will be a key one in determining the success or
failure of the Dayton peace accords.

Even now, following the start of the "arbitration business" and the official
nominating of the three arbitrators, nobody in Brcko knows exactly what the
subject of the arbitration will be, and what will change after 14 December.
Upon first glance, the town goes on with its daily routine, but underneath the
tranquillity, there boils a fear and uncertainty of what the future may
bring.

Before the war, Brcko was home to some 87,000 people, of which 38,000 were
Muslims, 22,000 Croats, 18,000 Serbs and 6,000 declared Yugoslavs. During the
war, the territory of the Brcko municipality was divided into two halves. The
Serb-held part is inhabited by some 50,000 people, including 35,000 refugees.
On the territory left to Croats and Muslims there are no estimates of the
number of nor the ethnicity of the inhabitants. It consists of two newly
established municipalities--the Muslim municipality Maoca, and the Croat
municipality Ravne Brcko.

The curiosity of this distribution of territory according to ethnic
affiliation is that none of the three ethnic parties currently occupies the
area where it was a majority before the war. Next to the fifteen Serb
periphery settlements, Bosnian Serbs control the town that was once a place
where people of all three ethnic groups lived together. Serbs also control
suburban parts which previously were 95% Muslim, along with seven Croat
villages. On the territory controlled by Muslims and Croats, a dozen Serb
villages remain that were home to about 7,000 people. The majority of the
population was either exchanged or forcibly moved to their respective ethnic
areas controlled by the respective national armies, which has effectively
resulted in ethnically "pure" areas, except for the town of Brcko where a few
thousand Muslims remain. All three national armies were alike when it came to
burning, destroying and looting the occupied settlements of other ethnic
groups. Consequently, most of these settlements are empty or virtually
uninhabited. Some refugees can be found there, consigned to living under
extremely poor conditions.

At the moment, there is an absolute political consensus on the Bosnian Serb
side that Brcko has to remain in the Republika Srpska (RS) -- at any cost. The
only traffic artery connecting the west part of the RS (where the majority of
Bosnian Serbs live) with Serbia-Montenegro runs through Brcko. Without a doubt,
no one and nothing could stop a mass exodus of Serbs from the area, if Brcko
were to revert to the Bosnian federation. Compared to a possible exodus here,
the flight of Serbs from Sarajevo would seem like child's play.

Despite assertions by the Bosnian Serb leaders that Brcko will not be a
subject of arbitration--and only the line of demarcation behind the town would
be discussed--the city authorities are obviously frightened by the possible
outcome of negotiations.

Radoslav Bogicevic, one of the city officials, said no one from the local
authorities was authorized to give a statement on arbitration; moreover, Pale
has implemented a gag-order affecting all wishing to comment on the issue. Yet
Bogicevic has articulated his personal view that the Muslims are determined to
bring the town into the federation, and that few if any benefits will go to
the Serb party, contrary to what Pale and leaders in Belgrade are telling
people. Bogicevic also said that if Brcko were given to the federation, the
future and very survival of the Serb entity in Bosnia-Herzegovina would be
highly questionable.

In its claim for Brcko, the Muslim side also presents strong arguments,
further complicating arbitration. At the moment, the Bosnian Army controls
only a couple of kilometers of Bosnia's border line near the northwestern town
of Bihac, and the rest is under the control of either the Bosnian Serb or
Croat armies. This is why the Muslim side is desperately asking for an exit to
the river, so as to not fall victim again should a new conflict erupt. On the
other hand, Brcko was the biggest port in Bosnia-Herzegovina, through which
most of the goods from northeastern Bosnia were exported and imported. Without
this port, a major share of industry in the Tuzla region would not be able
to develop. Thanks to the media, tensions on both sides have already become
very high, and the coming months are expected to place severe psychological
strains on the citizens of Brcko. -- Jan Urban, from reports by OMRI
contacts (Translated by Daria Sito Sucic)

Compiled by Daria Sito Sucic

This material was reprinted with permission of the Open Media
Research Institute, a nonprofit organization with research offices in
Prague, Czech Republic.
For more information on OMRI publications please write to info@omri.cz.