These Economies Will Dominate The World In 2050

FlickrEconomists on Wall Street are out with their recommendations for 2012. A few have come out with calls for 2015. But one, HSBC, is out with a call for 2050.

"The World in 2050," a new report by HSBC economist Karen Ward, forecasts the economic prowess of the 100 largest economies. Of interest in her report is where each happens to fall, and how income per capita will grow in a number of emerging markets.

Key notes we've already taken away: Italy will no longer be in the top ten and the U.S., as you've likely guessed, is no longer number one.

#49: Czech Republic

Detail: Income per capita in the Czech Republic will largely follow growth rates of the entire Central and Eastern European market, staying above 4% for the next 30 years.

Source: HSBC

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#48: Norway

AP

Size of Economy (Year 2000 dollars): $352 billion

Income per capita (Year 2000 dollars): $59,234

Detail: Norway will drop the greatest among the top 50 economies, falling 22 spaces as its economy grows at a slow but steady rate. Still, its income per capita will rank it among the top ten in the world.

#42: Singapore

Detail: Singapore's population will remain stagnant over the next 40 years, as it grapples with little land for expansion. However, its income per capita will swell to the highest among top 50 nations — and second overall.

#39: Belgium

Detail: Belgium, like many European nations, will see its economy fall in relative size, even as it expands at a stable pace. The country's population is expected to remain near 11 million over the time frame.

#38: Sweden

Detail: Sweden will grow at a slower pace than Belgium, although total GDP in Sweden will still remain larger. The population in the Scandinavian country is expected to grow by two million.

Source: HSBC

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#37: Nigeria

Size of Economy (Year 2000 dollars): $515 billion

Income per capita (Year 2000 dollars): $1,323

Detail: Nigeria's swelling population, which will be about 14 million less than the United States' population in 2050, will help contribute to the country's ascension. Income per capita will still remain painfully low, ranking it 98th out of the top 100.

#36: Austria

Detail: A slightly growing population, coupled with stable GDP growth will boost income per capita by more than $30,000.

Source: HSBC

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#35: South Africa

AP

Size of Economy (Year 2000 dollars): $529 billion

Income per capita (Year 2000 dollars): $9,308

Detail: An additional seven million people and a near tripling of income per capita will help the economy expand. Of the nine countries in Africa on the complete list of 100, South Africa will have the smallest increase in the size of its labor pool.

Source: HSBC

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#34: Algeria

AP

Size of Economy (Year 2000 dollars): $538 billion

Income per capita (Year 2000 dollars): $11,566

Detail: Algeria's economy is expected to grow to over $525 billion in size, from about $76 billion today. A 34% population increase will help that along.

#32: Chile

Detail: Commodity exports will continue to be a boon for Chile, which HSBC has labeled a growth country. However, the country has the second-lowest fertility rate in Latin America (behind Cuba), meaning production per capita will need the fuel to charge higher.

#28: Colombia

Detail: Colombia may be hindered by its below average length of schooling, which comes in at about 7.7 years. However, the country will benefit from much lower inflation compared to peer countries in Latin America.

Source: HSBC

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#27: Iran

Size of Economy (Year 2000 dollars): $732 billion

Income per capita (Year 2000 dollars): $7,547

Detail: Iran's economy will gain significant traction over the next forty years, but its income per capita will decline 9 spots.

Source: HSBC

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#26: Peru

Detail: Peru will likely emerge into the spotlight in Latin America, as its annual growth tops nearly all peers in the region. HSBC estimates that income per capita will grow at the second-fastest rate in Central and Southern America, behind only Bolivia.

Source: HSBC

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#25: Poland

AP

Size of Economy (Year 2000 dollars): $786 billion

Income per capita (Year 2000 dollars): $24,547

Detail: An average education system along with a moderate fertility rate, will keep Poland in roughly the same rank in 2050 as it was in 2010.

Source: HSBC

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#24: Netherlands

Detail: With stable growth, the Netherlands will look much like it does today in forty years. HSBC estimates the country's population will remain stagnant and its relative standard of living will rank it in the teens, just as it did in 2010.

Source: HSBC

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#23: Thailand

AP

Size of Economy (Year 2000 dollars): $856 billion

Income per capita (Year 2000 dollars): $11,674

Detail: Thailand will suffer slightly from a lower percentage of its population remaining in the workforce, as it ages and its fertility rate remaining below the Asian average.

Source: HSBC

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#22: Saudi Arabia

Detail: The oil-producing nation is the first of 22 countries to top the $1 trillion GDP mark. However, its standard of living is expected to take a hit as its income per capita falls nine spots, from 34 to 43.

Source: HSBC

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#21: Malaysia

Detail: The electronic equipment, petroleum, and liquefied natural gas producer will see a substantial increase in income per capita. Malaysian life expectancy, relatively high level of schooling, and above average fertility rate will help in its rapid expansion.

Source: HSBC

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#20: Egypt

AP

Size of Economy (Year 2000 dollars): $1.2 trillion

Income per capita (Year 2000 dollars): $8,996

Detail: An incredibly growing population which will top 130 million people will propel Egypt 15 spots into the top 20. Egypt will also rank as the largest African economy in 2050.

Source: HSBC

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#19: Argentina

Detail: Argentina has faced hyper-inflation and closed-off capital markets after it defaulted on debt years ago. However, the country looks like a growth nation to HSBC for its strong natural resource portfolio.

Source: HSBC

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#18: Australia

Detail: Australia will report relatively tame growth if HSBC is correct. The country's population growth, along with strong education systems and capital markets, will allow it to remain in the top tier of income per capita rankings.

#16: Philippines

Detail: Unlike Indonesia, peer Philippines will make meaningful progress increasing income per capita, advancing more than 10 spots. Add that to a population with 62 million more people, and GDP will increase by a factor of 15.

Source: HSBC

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#15: Russia

AP

Size of Economy (Year 2000 dollars): $1.9 trillion

Income per capita (Year 2000 dollars): $16,174

Detail: The first BRIC on the list (expect to see the next three pretty soon), Russia will see its population decline by more than 1% per annum. Nonetheless, it will continue to post high steady growth, HSBC estimates.

#11: Italy

Detail: The country, currently under incredible stress as the debt crisis in Europe mounts, will drop out of the top ten largest economies by 2050 as its population declines and personal incomes grow at a lower rate than other expanding nations.

#9: France

Detail: Although the French economy will continue to grow over the next four decades, the percentage of the population at work will decline. France is the first of three Eurozone countries to break into the top ten.

#7: Brazil

Detail: More than 200 million people will call Brazil home by 2050, and their standard of living will be significantly improved from 2010. Income per capita will nearly triple over those 40 years. Brazil will also be the largest economy in Latin America.

Source: HSBC

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#6: United Kingdom

Wikipedia

Size of Economy (Year 2000 dollars): $3.6 trillion

Income per capita (Year 2000 dollars): $49,412

Detail: The United Kingdom is expected to grow by more than 10 million people over the next half century, helping double the size of the economy.

Source: HSBC

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#5: Germany

AP

Size of Economy (Year 2000 dollars): $3.7 trillion

Income per capita (Year 2000 dollars): $52,683

Detail: Germany's economy will remain the largest in Europe, out-producing the U.K. even though the two nations will have virtually the same population size. However, the number of people living in Germany is expected to tumble by 24% as the U.K. grows.

Source: HSBC

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#4: Japan

Detail: Japan's population will decline markedly over the next 50 years, but its economy will still grow by $1.4 trillion. Together, income per capita will rise ever higher — ranking fourth in the world.

Source: HSBC

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#3: India

Detail: India's economy will have skyrocketed by 2050, growing from $960 billion to more than $8 trillion. The country will also add 400 million more people to its population over the next half century.

Source: HSBC

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#2: United States of America

Chip Somodevilla / Getty Images

Size of Economy (Year 2000 dollars): $22.3 trillion

Income per capita (Year 2000 dollars): $55,134

Detail: Even though the U.S. is no longer number one, the size of its economy will have doubled while adding roughly 90 million people to its population.

Source: HSBC

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#1: China

Detail: HSBC predicts that China will overtake the U.S. in size sometime over the next 50 years as its population surges to 1.43 billion. Even with the increase, its income per capita will remain outside the top 50 nations.