Stanford football: Expanded role for Hogan but Nunes remains the starter

Here’s an early (unedited) version of a story I wrote for Wednesday’s Merc, based on coach David Shaw’s comments at his weekly Tuesday press conference.

It’s clear to me that Shaw is not ready to make a change.

It’s also clear to me that, perhaps for the first time, Shaw is open to the possibility of making a change down the road.

That’s a significant step for a head coach.

(Also clear: Brett Nottingham, is a distant third in the QB pecking order.)

The story …

Stanford absolutely, positively does not have a quarterback controversy — at least not yet.

Josh Nunes will remain the starter Saturday when the Cardinal visits Colorado, but backup Kevin Hogan’s role will expand — and it might continue expanding if the mobile redshirt freshman runs the option effectively.

“We’ll see how it goes the rest of the year,’’ Stanford coach David Shaw said Tuesday.

“Kevin has played so well with what we’ve given him to do that we can’t not give him more.

“There are things Josh has done well that we’re pleased with and things Josh has not done well that we’re not pleased with. This is what’s prudent.”

Nunes, who won the job in training camp, directed Stanford to come-from-behind wins over USC and Arizona.

But he ranks eighth in the conference in passing efficiency and has completed just 52.6 percent of his passes. In a narrow victory over Washington State last week, he was 7 of 15 for 136 yards.

“We need to be more efficient in the passing game,’’ Shaw said. “It’s partially the quarterback, it’s partially not the quarterback …

“We’re going to give Kevin a bit more time, but at same time we’re also going to play Josh. We’ll let that play out. Each guy has their things that we are packaging together that will hopefully make us a more efficient offense …

“(Hogan) is not ready to take it all right now, and I’m not ready to take it all away from Josh.”

Shaw estimated that Hogan would take 12 – 20 snaps in Boulder. While he’s comfortable running the spread option, Hogan might throw from the pocket, as well.

Asked if he was concerned about the potential impact of Hogan’s expanded role on Nunes’ confidence, Shaw said:

“Not as all. As I said in front of the team, this is big-time college football. There’s competition everywhere. Josh has responded great in practice, and so has Kevin. It’s not necessarily to compete to be the ‘starter.’ It’s competing for plays.’’

Nunes responded matter-of-factly when asked Tuesday about Hogan.

“He has done a lot of good things on the field,’’ Nunes said. “If it helps get a ‘W,’ I’m all for it.’’

Post navigation

Guess we will see Nottingham starting @ Yale in the fall & wonder what might have been. Sure would like to know what Brett did to land so far in Shaw’s doghouse after being supposedly nip & tuck to start right into fall ball.

Doctore

I’ve seen every play Nunes has run this year either in person or on television. It is obvious that he zeroes in on one receiver and rarely scans the field like a good quarterback should. Combine that with limited mobility and he is very vulnerable to any decent pass rush. I would normally put this on lack of coaching, but maybe he is just not capable of doing more. The game is moving too fast for him. I would expect either Hogan or incoming freshman Ryan Burns to be the starting quarterback next year.

macbaldy

Your RDF is askew. You’ve been watching a different reality. Nunes doesn’t have a plethora of quality receivers who can get open and catch like Fleener or Whalen last year. The tight ends are one less than last year. His targets have been dropping in-hand passes more than they did last year. When Nunes has been hot, his targets are holding onto their catches. Weird, how that works. Your mobility evaluation is off-base. Look again! Nunes is sneaky good in the pocket and rarely takes a direct hit if he’s not in his throwing motion. He slips hits like Luck did. Those runs that he’s made aren’t lateral scrambles like John Elway, they’re forward for yardage like Andrew Luck. He evidently surprised everyone with his runs against Arizona. Did you notice that Luck was Stanford’s #2 rusher in 2010, Harbaugh’s last year; Luck had 3 runs ≥ 50 yds. In 2011, Shaw put a leash on Luck and he was #5 rusher and his longest run was 17 yds. Unlike Harbaugh, Shaw doesn’t want to risk his starter if he can use someone else. If Tyler Gaffney had returned, Hogan wouldn’t be playing as much. Did you notice that Hogan didn’t attempt a single pass against WSU? Did you notice that Nunes outgained Hogan? Did you notice that, unlike previous games, the pass/run ratio was predominantly run at 15/37 (0.41)? This year’s QB isn’t changing the game plan or making the play calls. Here’s list of the pass/run ratios for this season:

Nunes didn’t underthrow many passes against WSU, threw no INTs, his throwing arm was hit in the pocket on one of his incompletions, and he had only a couple of drops. He didn’t choose the number of passes. He didn’t make the game plan. He didn’t have a terrible game in comparison to the play calling. As I pointed out, for as much as Hogan played, he didn’t attempt a pass. So Nunes isn’t Andrew Luck, apparently the current play callers suffer under that same handicap. This WSU game had a lame game plan regardless of the QB.

gaffman

Harbaugh was a great QB and I assume knows how to pick talented QB and think he recruited Luck (he tried for Griffin too). His QB recruits other than Luck have not been close to the other QB talent in the Pac 12. What was he thinking?

Tk94111

Macbaldy, Hogan woulda passed, he got sacked. You make good points, it’s not all Josh. Yes we miss #12 but we also be Ryan Whalen, Doug Baldwin, Griff Whalen. But we’re past the Tavita days, aren’t we? For better or for worse, if you’re the QB on a BCS aspirational team, then you can’t be 8th in the conference, and go 7 for 15.

StanTheMan

Great analysis macbaldy, but the fact is that Nunes is the lowest-rated QB in the conference. Regardless, of gameplan, he’s down around 50% completions when, given the pass plays being called, he should be around 60-65%. It’s not like he’s being asked to throw 20-yard outs to the far sideline very often.

It’s not all Nunes, but he is more than enough of it to indicate that he is not the answer, no many how many more games he plays or how many more years he plays. And the reality is that opponents gameplan to stop the run because they know he’s not good enough to win with his arm.

tk94111

Coach Shaw demonstrating the ability to evolve, without panicking and losing control. Contrast this with Tedford across the Bay.

Bootlegger

@Macbaddy: Nunes had a number of bad passes against WSU and showed bad judgment on other occasions (failing to find open receivers, for example). He didn’t attempt many short passes, but that may be because the coaches knew he would screw them up. Overall, WSU really was his worst game so far. It is unfortunate, because he is able to throw the long ball well and at times can zing one over the middle. In addition, I would agree with you that he is reasonably mobile (though he doesn’t always sense pressure well). The offenses woes are not entirely his fault by any means, but he certainly is not doing his job.

Qriusfan

Lemme see if I get this. The “game manager” can’t pass or manage that well. So we’ll bring in a freshman who is only running an option package? Why not put in the experienced Nottingham, who also has a cannon arm? Shaw has consistently over praised Nunes and Hogan, and equally ignored Nottingham. Some try to speculate that the Sheriff must have a short coming. The only short coming I see is the coach. I think this is about Shaw’s ego, or bad judgment. It looks like this town isn’t big enough for the coach and the Sheriff. I’m curious what the players say among themselves.

macbaldy

WSU was hardly bad game for Nunes. Notice the disparity in pass attempts in comparison to previous games. Montgomery was out but Whitfield was getting initiated carefully. Those were Kodi’s first receptions. It seemed to be a throwback to the SJSU game in which Shaw and Pep had tunnel vision in running schemes.

BTW, Nunes was recruited by Stanford baseball for his 90+ mph fastball and he’s shown that he doesn’t lack arm strength. He seems to lapse into that pitcher’s malaise about being too careful with his short throw and his grip is less natural, too tense, so his release is a picosecond too late and pass is low. Just a thought. He did make a nice but difficult short pass to Kelsey against WSU.

Tk94111

Qrius, from the student radio station

@davidmlombardi: An hour of Stanford football talk radio bliss, thoroughly analyzing QB situation first and then Colorado game:

macbaldy – the low pass count in the game was due to the number of drives that stalled. In large part due to Nunes’ inability to perform.

Nunes’ issue has nothing to do with arm strength (though a little more might not hurt) and everything to do with confidence, accuracy, ability to read the defense and recognize advantageious match ups, not “throwing his guys open”, and game management (how many more delay of game penalties do we have to sit through, at home?)

StanTheMan

macbaldy, you are entering rothead territory with your rose-colored glasses view of the absolute weakest player on Stanford’s offense or defense.

The fact that Nunes didn’t throw that many passes is as much the result of his poor performance to date as anything else. How could you possibly build a gameplan around a guy who throws screen passes into the ground and can’t consistently find his second receiver? At least Hogan gives Shaw some choices of what plays to run.

It’s just too bad that Shaw didn’t more aggressively phase in Hogan after the loss at ND. A half-dozen plays during Big Game and 10 with WSU was too few, especially in Q4.

I continue to look forward to seeing Hogan taking more than half the snaps, if not all of them – by the end of the season.

Mephistopheles

tk94111 says:
October 30th, 2012 at 8:55 pm

Coach Shaw demonstrating the ability to evolve, without panicking and losing control.
—————————————————————————————–
Put me in this camp. Shaw knows more than any of us about his QB’s, and he knew all along (IMO) that Hogan was his best option, but its hard for a coach with high expectations to skip over 2 upper class 4star QB’s to play a frosh.

Nunes has opened a window with his play to slide the kid into some snaps, and Shaw is wise enough to use it. And I think he’s doing so without losing his team, at least for now, which is no mean feat. How many other coaches have botched this same scenario?

At the same time we all know Nunes is hardly getting the help he needs from the outside guys, or the running game. Teams are not playing 9 in the box every play. And even if they do, why can’t we pop one through every so often, like UW did to us? This is no easy solution, but one that needs to be resolved soon.

Go Card.

stanfordfan

Nunes was highly recruited out of high school. He and Andrew Luck were both 4-star quarterbacks. You don’t always know how somebody will respond to college-level game pressure until he is actually out there in game conditions.

I think Shaw’s approach is commendable, and perhaps Hogan will be ready after the Colorado game when the games get really tough.

notsosure

have seen some games, watched others on boob tube. Anyone who saw ND game would agree Leper cons lost.

Now that makes Stanford 7-1. Nunes rides the D, which he will NOT have next yr.

So, if Nottingham is gone (in pregames he seems to be going thru the motions) Shaw is showing his pref. for a non drop back passer/passing attack, a complete departure from Stanford tradition.

It really sucks, and will limit my attendance. First off, we do not execute the option or the kitty. Waste of downs. Most importantly, winning is not enough in the Bay area, nor in the pac 12. Completed Passes, thrown for distance, draws the crowd. Sellouts should be automatic on a clear and promising Saturday in Roctober. There were about 20k empties on Sat last.

Shaw did NOT put a collar on Luck, witness his WR catch against the Dogs. It was Luck himself who wisely limited his running, and his opponents.

The real problem; the wildkitty or the option means fewer good wideout recruits.

Yes N. locks in. Yes, for oldtimers like me he is a return to “Cordivit” as we used to call him in ’75. But there are other qbs. and other seasons. I understand a coach’s loyalty, but if oregon, state, and UCLA make us 7 and 4 even the sun bowl (officials at last Sat game) will not look favorably on us.

It will be harder for Stanford to recruit wideouts and dbs. Not a pleasing outlook. Stanford came back on a qb tradition reinvigorated, and will not maintain glory on the gridiorn unless a pocket passer is present in the huddle. Sure, Good linemen are essential, yet look at the All American board. Offensive linemen are well represented in past years.

I reserve the right to be an idiot.

Papa John

As others have pointed out, Nunes’ problems don’t just boil down to completion percentage. By Nunes’ own admission, on multiple occasions he did not get the team into the right play at the line of scrimmage versus WSU. As much as I like the kid and want him to succeed, that can’t be happening in week 8.

I’ve liked what I’ve seen of Hogan so far, but the sample size, like with Nottingham, is way too small. Nevertheless, I loved his rollout TD pass to Toilolo versus Cal. I’m not sure Nunes makes that throw.

I hope that all Stanford fans will join me in cheering for both QBs to have great games versus CU.

http://www.voteobrien.org/login.asp Cardinal Rule

hear hear Papa John!

Bootlegger

@Macbaldy: WSU wasn’t a bad game for Nunes? What are you smoking? Nunes was completely ineffectual. Maybe different play calling would have made a difference, but my sense is that the playbook has become limited because of Nunes’ repeated inability to execute. I don’t doubt that Nunes has the arm and the legs to be an excellent QB, but he is just not getting it done. Hopefully, Hogan will either step up and do better or, at least, light a fire under Nunes. In other games, Nunes has played better than he played against WSU, so there is some hope that he will be able to put it all together.

NorCal Tree

We all know Wilner is no Stanford homer, let alone a fan. Jon, please find out the real scoop on Nottingham. Ask the hard questions. Shaw stated all off season that this was a close QB battle. What has happened here? I’m glad he’s finally checking his ego at the door and opening this up to Hogan, but what about the Sheriff? Last game’s poor performance was on both Shaw and Nunes. They had to hear the boos coming from the stands. I know I did!

Was a Stanford fan

Shaw is tearing down what Harbaugh built. Slowly but surely. Lets not all forget the Fiesta Bowl. Putting the game on a red shirt freshman’s foot (who was injured part of the season and already missed a try) vs the best QB in the country. Also his first big personnel move: It was his pick to choose Nunes. Now the worst QB in the Pac 12 and he stuck with him for 8 games. He said prior to the season ‘no 2 qb package. That’s what he’s doing now. And remember it wasn’t a true open qb competition. Did anyone see Nottingham with the first string offense going up against the second string defense? His guy was Nunes all along. Gave him every opportunity to win the job. Why, because he would make fewer mistakes and had a better command of the offense. Again, Worst QB in Pac-12. Pretty certain Nottingham would not be the worst ranked QB in the conference, but we’ll never know. But we do know that Nunes is the worst QB in the conference. Nunes makes one good throw out of four attempts. Arizona and Washington State have Pac-12 quality QB’s. Nunes couldn’t even play at Cal. Maynard running for his life on every passing down. he’s rated 62 out of 120 on ESPN. Nunes ranked 92nd and has one of the best O lines in college football. You’ll see nervous Nunes the rest of the season and Hogan is a great athlete, but not ready yet. Shaw will go down as a great recruiter, but horrible coach. Next year will be worse than this year. And Macbaldy- Nunes was horrible vs. Washington State. He should have had three interceptions. Shaw= stubborn and arrogant and is bringing the program down. My guess is that Pep Hamilton takes the fall this year and in two years Shaw will not be able to hide behind Harbaugh’s recruits and he’s gone. He’s a HORRIBLE COACH….

tk94111

Norcal, listen to the following hour of radio from the student radio station. It’s Lombardi and a student close to the program. http://t.co/hCv8AsKr It’s the kind of insight you don’t get from coaches. I’m surprised this is even out there.

Notsofast, Notsosure! Luck himself said his run plays were limited. They just didn’t call them. Stanford’s not turning into a spread offense, don’t kid yourself. Hogan ran (tried to) the standard formation and dropped back to pass when he was sacked. He looks good – thicker than Nunes or Nottingham.

elPalo

I have no inside info about Nottingham, but from this year’s spring game I did notice he was getting ticked off about being “sacked” and had words with the defense. Really didn’t understand his petulance because it was basically touch football. Perhaps he gets too hot headed to handle adverse plays?

Whatever keeps the ball moving I am in favor of implementing. This notion of purist football is exactly why all of use are complaining about the lack of offense– Shaw stuck with the Andrew plan too long. It’s time for something else. Note that they did run the read option with Luck quite a bit in 2010– never in 2011.

I think an amalgam of offenses might work: some grind it out, a few spread, pistol, some West Coast, etc. Note that they even had a wishbone formation against WSU in the red zone!

JeffT

Good news for Hogan and the Cardinal faithful. Bad news is that Nottingham not gonna get a chance – best of the three sitting on bench for what?? Agree with Need Shawfense – what a shame when this kids sling’n it elsewhere.

SacCardFan

Has anyone else noticed the difference between the Offense and Defense, in terms of what they project when being interviewed on the field? Ben Gardner praises Trent Murphy and Shayne Skov, AJ Tarpley praises Vaughters and Lancaster – it is all for one, one for all, The D has swagger, mutual respect, and they BELIEVE.

We have not heard this at all from anyone on the offense. Gone are the days of the true TMU. Gone are the days of the David DeCastro who looked mean with a neutral face on. It is clear to this observer that, this year, the Offense doesn’t believe (at least the way the Defense does). So, who is the leader on the offense? Who keeps them fired up? Who tells them what the next series is going to bring, and pumps them up that they will pull it off?

Exactly. The Offense suffers from not having a QB who is an effective leader, in the heat-of-the-game way. Having a quiet, unflappable guy in charge can be good in a lot of settings, but it may be at the root of this squad’s 2012 floundering. The Offense needs someone to rally around, to believe in, and to fight for. Until they have that, it will be more of the same.

qriusfan

Let me see… Hogan is qualified because he completed 1 pass and has 7 yards rushing in the wildcat??? The problem is Shaw has never given Nottingham any chance. Why???

It’s easy to side with Shaw since his is the only voice we hear. So the speculation is that something must be wrong with Nottingham. However, if you are stuck in a situation where the coach doesn’t like you – and we’ve all had bad bosses – what can Nottingham do?

Many assume that Shaw would obviously play the person most likely to succeed. But there are way too many examples of coaches whose egos get in the way. It’s got to be tough to go through every practice knowing you can perform and knowing the coach will never give you the opportunity. That Shaw would not play Nottingham has been clear from the start.

qriusfan

tk94111

Thanks for the link to radio. I think the real problem is that when they say “they” don’t like Nottingham it means “Shaw” doesn’t like him. I’ve never seen a team where QB is a popularity contest. Usually teammates accept those who perform. There is a lot of speculation or innuendo in the broadcast, but nothing to suggest he can’t perform or lead the team. For those who’ve seen him play, Nottingham is not a prima-donna. I saw him against a state champion DeLaSalle team where he almost single-handed kept his team in the game – both running and passing and taking a ton of hits.

The only opinion that counts is Shaw’s. And if Nottingham is performing well – and no one has alleged he hasn’t – then the only possible conclusion is that Shaw doesn’t want to play him. Even if he though Hogan was eventually his guy, you’d think he would bring in Brett since, as Shaw says, Hogan isn’t ready.

qriusfan

A final thought on the “issues” with Nottingham. The hear-say comments seem like the trivial back-biting you hear on any team. Supposedly, a coach is there to manage and teach players to develop. You don’t cast off a player because of minor quibbles, you help him grow.