Basketball - Hear Me Out

I'm probably crazy for even contemplating this scenario, but, after escaping Iowa City with an OT win, I guess I'll step out on a limb and say that the NCAA tourney is not completely out of the realm of possibility. We're 13-12. We have 5 games left. We need to win all 5. Maybe I should stop right there . . .

BUT if we finish 18-12, with wins AT Ohio State and Michigan State and a home win against Illinois (plus the home wins we HAVE to have against Penn State and Minnesota), there's a chance. A win or two at the BTT would certainly help and may even be necessary. But a regular season finish of 18-12, with wins over UConn, Ohio State, Michigan State and Illinois would be something the committee would have to think about long and hard.

I don't see this team being capable of putting together that kind of winning streak. The games at Ohio State and Michigan State will be extremely difficult and we're certainly capable of laying eggs at home when the focus wanes.

Anyway, a ray of hope still shines . . . and that's about the best we can do in the world of Michigan athletics right now.

in that scenario we would be 21-13 and probably one of the hottest teams in the country. Not only would we be in the tournament but we would probably be a higher seed than last year. Going 10-1 down the stretch, which is what you are proposing would make Michigan a lock. If they finish 17-13 they would probably need to make the finals of the BTT to make the tournament.

I have thought that 11-7 in the conference gets us in. A few weeks ago, that seemed possible. The losses to Wisconsin at home and at Northwestern basically ended it for all reasonable purposes. BUT, if they do manage to win out, I think they have a strong case. That's essentially the same record as last year and the two wins over OSU (one on the road) and a road win at MSU would be equal to the Duke and UCLA wins of last year in my mind.

I think there's literally almost no chance that happens. @OSU and @MSU are two of the three toughest games they play this year (@Kansas being the other) and nothing I've seen in following this team closely gives me any hope they can win those games, but I guess you never know.

Sadly, winning out in the regular season may be the more likely of the two. (By "more likely," I mean like a 1% chance vs. a .0.5% chance.) Unless we get a top-five seed, which is doubtful, we'd be looking at having to win four games in four days, against the cream of the conference, with a very thin lineup.

gives us a.4211% chance of winning out. Let's say that making the finals in the BTT is enough. that means we beat one lower tier team and 2 top tier teams (on neutral court). I think that'd probably be like 70%*40%*30% or so. of course, times .4211%

I was going to write about the ridiculousness of Michigan winning out and making the Tourney. But I reread the last part of the post “Anyway, a ray of hope still shines . . . and that's about the best we can do in the world of Michigan athletics right now.”
So I am taking a softer approach. You are not crazy, or insanely optimistic. You are just a true blue Michigan fan. After a bad football season we all thought we could distract ourselves with a good basketball and hockey season. “Sigh” It didn't happen. Even the Red Wings have been tough to watch.
So your idea of Michigan possibly making it to the NCAA tournament is not about logic, but an attempt to fight off depression. So everybody be nice. What we need is love. The OP is a true Michigan Fan needing encouragement. It really will get better.

Do you realize how truly AWFUL of a basketball team Iowa is? And, if Lickliter had any clue how to coach, he would've told his team to foul before UM even had a chance to shoot a 3 and Iowa would've won the game.

Winning at OSU is inconceivable, and winning at MSU on Morgan's and possibly Lucas's last home game is pretty much impossible.

ONLY shot UM has at making the tourney is winning the BTT, and that's not happening either.

Even the NIT is in jeopardy right now... UM is NOT 13-12 for postseason purposes, because the win against Div. 2 NMI doesn't count. UM is actually 12-12, with 2 sure losses (OSU, MSU), 1 sure win (PSU), 1 probable loss (Illinois), and 1 toss-up (Minn) remaining. UM has to be almost perfect to even make the NIT.

the way I introduced the post makes it quite clear that I recognize the unlikeliness of the scenario. Still threw it out there because it makes me feel better to think there's still a possibility, however remote.

Don't you think that winning the last 5 games (esp @OSU @MSU) would be harder than winning 4 games in the BTT at a mostly neutral site?

I mean, you're going to face 2 middling teams like us, then 2 good teams like MSU and OSU. I think its also easier to carry over the momentum to make a BTT tourney run much like Syracuse in the Big East a couple of years ago, or Beilein's WVU team in 05.