000
FXUS63 KOAX 302331
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
631 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015
WARM AND DRIER WEATHER CONTINUES...BUT PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP TOMORROW INTO THE WEEKEND. SUBJECTIVE 12Z
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH STARTING TO SHOW
ITSELF IN EASTERN CANADA INTO THE GREAT LAKES...WITH RIDGING
DEVELOPING OVER THE GREAT BASIN...AND WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW
ACROSS THE CENTRAL US. UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAK OF UP TO 95KT WAS
NOTED ACROSS NEB/IA INTO THE GREAT LAKES. DRIER AIRMASS HAS
PERSISTED...WITH 850MB HIGH CENTERED OVER EASTERN NEB/EASTERN
KS...AND 8C+ DEWPOINTS SUPPRESSED SOUTH OF AN AREA FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST KS AND NORTHERN AR. RETURN FLOW WAS NOSING INTO THE HIGH
PLAINS...FEEDING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON IN NORTHEAST
CO. VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED A FEW CU FROM NORTH CENTRAL TO
WESTERN NEB...WITH OTHERWISE MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE AREA.
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS...PARTICULARLY ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING/NIGHT AND
AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING/NIGHT. MODELS GENERALLY KEEP
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TODAY/TONIGHT IN CENTRAL/WESTERN NEB AND NOT
IN THE CWA...SO HAVE KEPT POPS OUT FOR TONIGHT. INCREASING MID-
LEVEL MOISTURE ON FRIDAY SHOULD BE MORE SUPPORTIVE OF AFTERNOON
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN CENTRAL TO EASTERN NEB. DESPITE
JUST A WEAK RIPPLE IN THE NORTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW...AND WEAK
SURFACE CONVERGENCE...MODELS DEVELOP FAIRLY ROBUST CONVECTION IN
CENTRAL TO EASTERN NEB ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON...GROWING UPSCALE INTO AN
MCS THAT DIVES INTO KS IN THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT AND WITH SOME
SHOWERS/STORMS REDEVELOPING ON ITS OUTFLOW IN SOUTHERN IA TO CENTRAL
NEB THROUGH MORNING. HAVE REFLECTED SOME OF THIS TIMING/PLACEMENT
IN REFINING POPS. AFTER A BIT OF RECOVERY TIME...ALMOST THE SAME
PATTERN APPEARS...WITH AN EASTWARD SHIFT...AS CONVECTION DEVELOPS IN
EASTERN NEB/WESTERN IA...GROWS UPSCALE INTO AN MCS...THEN DROPS
SOUTH/SOUTHEASTWARD INTO MO OVERNIGHT. INSTABILITY AND SHEAR ON
BOTH DAYS WOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR AT LEAST A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE
WEATHER...THOUGH MOISTURE IS STILL SOMEWHAT LIMITED. WITH WEAK
SURFACE WINDS...LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WOULD BE A NON-FACTOR. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD WARM THROUGH SATURDAY...ASSUMING THAT THE FRIDAY NIGHT MCS
CLEARS WITH AMPLE TIME FOR RECOVERY...BUT AM LESS CONFIDENT ABOUT
RECOVERY AND WARMING ON SUNDAY GIVEN CONTINUED NORTHWEST UPPER-
LEVLE FLOW BUT ALSO SOME RETURN FLOW SNEAKING INTO THE WESTERN CWA.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015
INTERMITTENT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE NEXT
WORK WEEK. UPPER-LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW SHOULD TRANSITION TO MORE
ZONAL FLOW AS RIDGE SLIDES A BIT EASTWARD OUT OF THE ROCKIES...AND
MODELS INDICATE A FEW WAVES TOPPING THE RIDGE. ANY OF THOSE WAVES
COULD GENERATE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA...AS WELL AS
REINFORCE SLIGHTLY COOLER 850MB TEMPERATURES AS GRADIENT HANGS UP
NEAR THE CWA. ALL IN ALL...HAVE SEVERAL PERIODS OF PRECIP
MENTIONED...WITH TEMPERATURES LINGERING BELOW NORMAL...BUT HAVE LOW
CONFIDENCE ON ANY GIVEN DAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 622 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. A VERY WEAK FRONT
WILL SLOWLY SINK SWD THROUGH THE TAF SITES OVER THIS PERIOD...BUT
WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN LIGHT. WE MAY SEE SOME ISO SHRA/TSRA
DEVELOP FRI AFTN ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...BUT CONFIDENCE IN TIMING
AND COVERAGE ARE TO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS ATTM...BUT MOST
LIKELY WOULD AFFECT LNK NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD IF THESE DO
OCCUR. CLOUDS THRU THE PERIOD SHOULD BE MID AND HIGH LEVEL.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MAYES
LONG TERM...MAYES
AVIATION...BOUSTEAD