Thursday, February 20, 2014

Congratulations Seahawks!
I thought they were the better team going into the game (my breakdown
showed them having the edge on both sides of the ball), but I certainly didn’t
expect to see it get that out of hand. Seattle gets their first
NFL championship, joining their ’76 brethren Buccaneers as one-time winners of
it all. Interestingly, that Super Bowl
saw the Bucs dominant defense destroy Oakland’s
offensive machine. Speaking of Seattle’s expansion
companion, I thought I’d take an early look at some decisions the Bucs may need
to make this offseason.

The Bucs pick 7th in the first round, where
they’ll look to add to a talented, albeit shallow roster. That pick must be spent on an impact player,
whether it is a QB, receiver, or pass rusher; all areas of need for the
Bucs. Here are the positions I believe
they need to address in free agency and/or the draft:

QB – I’m not sold on Mike Glennon as a guy who is going to
win a meaningful January or February game for this team. I also don’t see how he fits new OC Jeff
Tedford’s style of passers who can move in the pocket. The free agent pool is empty, so do they ride
with Glennon or pull the trigger on a passer in the first round or two?

WR – Like a broken record, I keep begging year after year
for speed and elusiveness at the receiver position. It’s still lacking. Vincent Jackson has been a fine #1 given the
team’s QB play, but there are questions about Mike Williams’ commitment. At a minimum, they need to difference-making
slot guy to play with these two. Worst
case scenario has them looking for someone to start in place of Williams.

TE – Tim Wright was a nice pass catcher, but he can’t
block. Tom Crabtree is a back up, and
Luke Stocker has to be a huge afterthought at this point.

OL – When the Bucs signed Carl Nicks, they thought they’d
have quite a formidable line, but it just never materialized. They have no idea what they’ll get from
Nicks, if anything, and Joseph’s play has taken a nosedive. Moving Jeremy Zuttah to guard and finding a
new center could be a possibility.
Donald Penn has his detractors, but left tackle is far from the team’s
biggest weakness. Right tackle Demar
Dotson had a fabulous year and may be the most certain thing they’ve got going
up front. .

DL – Adrian Clayborn has been ok, but the Bucs need more
pass rushers. Da’Quan Bowers has been a
waste, but on a positive note, William Gholston looks like a building
block. That’s only two, possibly,
reliable rushers. I expect this to be
the Bucs priority in free agency. Gerald
McCoy should only excel under Lovie Smith and Leslie Frazier, and Akeem Spence
should benefit from the coaching change as well. They’re shallow inside, so they’ll add a
tackle or two.

LB – Lavonte David is a stud, but I continue to believe they
need to get better than Mason Foster in the middle. I’m guessing the new regime will look to do
that. Every other Bucs linebacker with a
name you’d recognize is a free agent. Of
that bunch, it would be best to bring back Dekoda Watson on the strong side.

CB – Darrelle Revis is back, but there’s a steep drop off in
talent after him. Johnthan Banks didn’t
exactly shine as a rookie, and Leonard Johnson should be lower on the depth
chart. Ideally, they get new starters
opposite Revis and in the slot, and Banks and Johnson develop as backups.

I believe the Bucs currently sit at about $12mil under the
’14 cap after the round of releases that included Derek Landri. Where can they find more cap space? They can free up about $5mil by cutting both
Connor Barth and Michael Koenen. Aside
from that, there’s not a ton of fat to trim from this cap aside from two
obvious targets –

Davin Joseph - $6mil

As I mentioned above, Joseph’s play has fallen off
significantly, and I don’t see any way he’s back for anything close to that
amount. It’s probably best for the team
to move on from him altogether and pay
someone else less to do a better job.

Donald Penn - $7.4mil

Yes, I know. I just
mentioned that Penn isn’t one of the team’s bigger problems. I’m not advocating releasing Penn, but maybe
he’d be open to extending his deal that currently is set to expire after the
’15 season at a lower annual rate. It
wouldn’t be a $7.4mil cap savings, but they could conceivably get a couple of
million to go towards another position by restructuring Penn’s contract.

If they start over at kicker and punter, cut Joseph and
either restructure Penn or make a couple of other small moves, they would be
looking at more $25mil in cap space heading into the offseason.

Here are the specific free agents I’d key on:

Everson Griffen (DE, Vikings)

Willie Young (DE, Lions)

Corey Wootton (DE, Bears)

Here’s where I’m struggling.
They almost sure to add a free agent, but on what side will they put
him? Jared Allen plays the same side as
Clayborn, and it doesn’t make sense to either bench our best pass rusher or
weaken the run defense by playing Allen on the strong side. He’d be the big name veteran I’d be
interested in giving a short term deal.
I wouldn’t feel comfortable giving Julius Peppers or Just Tuck a lot of
money, Greg Hardy isn’t coming here, and Michael Bennett isn’t coming
back. I’d prefer to see the Bucs go the
younger route. Young isn’t terribly
likely given that he’d be on the same side as Clayborn, but I mention him
because I’ve always been a fan of his talent.
I like the idea of pairing Griffen with Gholston on the left side. He’s not going to cost a lot and is someone
who has shown steady, albeit slow development as a pass rusher. If he doesn’t perform up to expectations, the
Bucs won’t be in the huge financial hole like they would if they went the
Peppers or Tuck route. Assuming I’m not
completely underestimating his market, Griffen is a low risk high reward
option.

Vance Walker (DT, Raiders)

Henry Melton (DT, Bears)

I’ll be shocked if the Bucs commit much to DT this
offseason. Maybe Melton finds a soft
market coming off his injury. Walker continues to be a
reliable rotational piece on the defensive line wherever he plays and would
bolster the run defense.

Alex Mack (C, Browns)

Geoff Schwartz (G, Chiefs)

Anthony Collins (T, Bengals)

I don’t want to get rid of Zuttah, but it’s possible for
them to upgrade two positions with one signing.
Early reports on Nicks are positive, so maybe he’ll be a factor after
all. There should still be one vacant
guard position. Zuttah has seen most of
his time away from center at left guard, but he has played a handful of games
at right guard. Could he handle that
switch and play next to Mack, an attractive free agent with new Tampa ties? Mack is arguably the game’s best center and
would go a long way in helping this new coaching staff implement their
offense. Ultimately, I think he’ll be
out of the Bucs price range. I don’t
know if the Bucs will look to free agency to solve their guard situation, but
Schwartz would be a steal and nice plug in on the right side. He was a big factor in Kansas City’s success on offense and made
just $700k last year. Collins isn’t
really an option as a back up, but he’s the only free agent tackle I’d
consider.

Sam Shields (CB, Packers)

Alterraun Verner (CB, Titans)

Corey Graham (CB, Ravens)

Corner play opposite Revis wasn’t pretty in ’13, and I’ll be
disappointed if they don’t bring in a legit starter this offseason. If we were playing with monopoly money and no
salary cap, Brent Grimes would be my preferred target. Since we aren’t, maybe Shields and Verner
will be affordable. They’re both young
corners with a lot of experience and are sure to attract a bit of attention,
but the corner market didn’t exactly go crazy last offseason. Maybe they’ll be affordable after all. I’d slot Graham behind Shields and Verner,
but he would be a solid sneaky addition, in my opinion. He could start in Tampa;
something he won’t do next year in Baltimore. Charles Tillman would be a fall-back and a
shorter term option, but he may be the most likely of the names I’ve
mentioned.

Jeremy Maclin (WR, Eagles)

Andre Roberts (WR, Cardinals)

Jacoby Jones (WR, Ravens)

Dexter McCluster (WR, Chiefs)

I’ve always been a Maclin fan, and he’ll probably be had on
a cheap prove-it deal. Jones is still
big in the punt return game, and while he’s never reached his potential as a
receiver, he’d instantly be #3 on the depth chart and give Glennon a deep threat. McCluster would provide some of the increased
quickness I’m seeking, but he’s not a solution to anything. Of all available free agent receivers, Doug
Baldwin would be my preference, but he’s a restricted free agent and isn’t
getting out of Seattle. Since I can’t get Baldwin,
I’ll focus on a similar receiver in Roberts; a guy who can play both inside and
out and make some plays for you in the middle and deep parts of the
secondary. Roberts has been a
consistent, reliable target and was productive when called upon as a starter;
something that’s not easy to do given the presence of Larry Fitzgerald and the
sloppy pre-Palmer QB play. There isn’t a
TE I’m interested in, especially since Fred Davis was just handed an indefinite
ban.

I think that’s pretty doable with a guesstimated $25mil in
cap space, even with $5mil allocated to the draft. There should be plenty of cap room for the
Bucs to pull off these moves considering the salary cap for ’14 was just
increased from $123mil to $130mil.

Transitioning to the draft, here are my early thoughts on
the first 7 selections. The NFL Combine
starts Saturday, so I’m sure a lot of this will change in the coming
weeks.

1) Houston
Texans

Key Needs – QB, OL, LB, CB

The Texans won’t take an offensive lineman or cornerback with
the first pick. For me, this one is down
to Jadeveon Clowney or a QB, and if we’re supposed to believe reports that the
owner is pushing for a passer, I’m siding with the guy who writes the checks. Which QB is still uncertain, but knowing what
I know about Bill O’Brien and his connections to the UCF staff. They’ll upset a lot of folks in Texas by passing on
Johnny Manziel, but I’m going to go with…..Blake Bortles (QB, UCF)

2) Cleveland
Browns (via STL)

Key Needs – QB, RB, LB, WR

This pick is an obvious trade spot, so I’ll go ahead and
predict that one happens. Right or wrong
the Rams remain committed to Sam Bradford, so they won’t be taking a QB this
year. There isn’t a team that couldn’t
use Clowney, but if I’m a Rams fan I’d rather they address a true area of
weakness rather than allocating more assets to the one thing they do
right. I could see Cleveland’s new
regime taking an aggressive approach to securing their (hopeful) franchise QB,
and they have the draft picks to do pull it off…..Teddy Bridgewater (QB,
Louisville)

3) Jacksonville
Jaguars

Key Needs – QB, DE, RB, OL

Take a QB right?
Neither Blaine Gabbert nor Chad Henne belongs taking a regular season
snap, but I don’t think the Jags are an absolute lock to take a passer with
their first pick, even if Cleveland
doesn’t trade ahead of them. Everyone
knows they need a QB, but more importantly, they need a sure thing. To many, this guy is the surest thing in the
draft, and he also fills a huge need for the Jags…..Jadeveon Clowney (DE, South Carolina)

4) St. Louis
Rams (via CLE)

Key Needs – OT, WR, S, CB

This is where I think the Watkins watch could start. Pairing him with Tavon Austin could lead to
some highlights in St. Louis,
but whether it’s Bradford or someone else handling the football, they’ve got to
get him some protection. Jake Long is
coming off a torn ACL, and RT Rodger Saffold is a free agent. Greg Robinson might have the higher ceiling,
but I believe this guy will have a quicker assimilation period, has experience
at both left and right tackle, and has a father with ties to the head coach…..Jake
Matthews (T, Texas A&M)

5) Oakland
Raiders

Key Needs – QB, DE, CB, RB

Oakland’s
roster is a mess. I know, what a
surprise. I can’t see a scenario that
has Clowney still on the board, and it’s too early for a corner or running
back. Watkins is an option, but I’m
going to think Oakland
seizes the opportunity to take a true starting QB. And come on.
What non-JFF/Texan fan wouldn’t want to see this guy in a Raider
uniform?…..Johnny Manziel (QB, Texas A&M)

6) Atlanta
Falcons

Key Needs – OT, DE, DT, TE

Will they take a tackle after shelling out a lot of money
for Sam Baker last year? I’m guessing
no. They must get better up front on
defense, especially considering their best pass rusher is a fading Osi
Umenyiora. They have to draft or sign
someone who can get after Brees and Newton. I think this comes down to either Anthony
Barr or…..Khalil Mack (DE/OLB, Buffalo)

7) TampaBay Buccaneers

Key Needs – QB, DL, CB, WR

I’ve got the top QBs off the board at this point, but if the
Bucs had a shot at either Bortles or Bridgewater,
I’ve got to think they would give them a ton of consideration. I don’t think Manziel is a Lovie or Tedford
pick, and while Derek Carr has Tedford ties, I’m far from sold on him. I’m intrigued by Mack, but I’m not sure where
he’d fit in Lovie’s defense. Right now,
if I can’t get Bortles, Bridgewater,
or Clowney I’ve got my eyes on three players:

Greg Robinson (T, Auburn)

If he’s not the first tackle taken, he’ll be the
second. Robinson would give the Bucs a
replacement for Penn at LT and free up a lot of cap space. If I can plead Penn’s case, I’d hate to dump
a guy that is in the better half of players at his position in what could be a
sink or swim year for Glennon. Still,
Robinson’s upside would be pretty hard to ignore. He’s big, strong, and can move. That’s still a rare combination of skills for
a tackle. It’s hard for some to get
excited about taking a tackle with your first choice, but Robinson could be the
smartest use of the pick; high ceiling and floor. I listed Robinson because he hadn’t been
picked yet in this instance, but Matthews would warrant similar consideration.

Sammy Watkins (WR, Clemson)
Should the Bucs choose to go receiver here, they’ll likely have first pick at
what looks to be a pretty deep class.
Watkins would give the Bucs something they don’t have – a multi-threat player
with incredible vertical speed. He isn’t
just a speed guy though. Watkins gets
physical when needed, especially at the point of catch, and his strong build
will help him hold up well to the hits he’ll take as a pro. I see him being a huge red zone weapon for
whoever drafts him; something the Bucs could use. Watkins would be the explosive talent I’ve
been pining for. Just having him on the
field and making the defense think about him will open things up for the rest
of the offense.

Kony Ealy (DE, Missouri)

I’ve pointed out the Bucs need for a pass rusher or two, and
with Clowney off the board, I think Ealy might be the best remaining option for
the Bucs. You probably won’t find a mock
that has him going this high, but I expect that to change the closer we get to
May. Ealy is an athletic pass rusher often
lazily compared to former Missou Tiger, Aldon Smith. He shows plus change of direction; impressive
for his size and important for his position. I like how Ealy uses his length and hands off
the edge, but he needs to be more consistent in anchoring with his hips and
legs to be more effective in both setting the edge against the run and getting
to the passer. He’s got great short area
closing speed for a guy with his build, but I think he needs a bit of coaching
and a lot of reps against grown men to see if he’s a really good football
player or if he’s just a really good athlete.
As you see, Ealy has impressive positives but is still rather incomplete
as a football player.

Others I didn’t list –

·Timmy Jernigan (DT, FSU) I love but don’t want
to take GMC backup at #7.

·Mike Evans (WR, Texas A&M) is duplicative
with Vincent Jackson.

·Anthony Barr (DE/OLB, UCLA) see Khalil Mack.

·CJ Mosley (LB, Alabama) don’t see him as a 4-3 MLB; already
have David at WLB.

·Marquise Lee (WR, USC) worries me when it comes to
staying healthy.

In making my decision, Ealy is the first one out. I believe the Bucs will address this position
prior to the draft and will roll with Clayborn, Gholston, Bowers, and a free
agent. If they do add a pass rusher, I’m
guessing it’s with a later pick.

Deciding between Robinson and Watkins, one of the first
things I have to consider is how much better the Bucs would be with Robinson
instead of Penn. The veteran has been a target for Bucs fans,
but he’s still among the better left tackles in the game. How long would it take to say the same about
Robinson? Not hating, but potential and
performance are two different things. Could
the Bucs’ next left tackle currently be playing on the right side of the
line? Lovie is already talking about
giving Demar Dotson reps at LT in camp.

Watkins is probably the most electrifying offensive talent
in this draft, and the Bucs lack of said talent has had them behind the rest of
the league for the last couple of years.
Adding Watkins makes the Bucs a better team than replacing Penn with Robinson
or Matthews. I did mention Roberts as a
free agent target, but there is the Mike Williams factor. He’s far from on firm footing with the new
regime, and his contract takes a huge $4mil increase in ’15. I can’t count on him to see anywhere close to
the end of that deal. After watching
some of the “receivers” this team has run out there in recent years, I’d
welcome the complaints of too many weapons and not enough footballs.

R1 pick – Sammy Watkins (WR, Clemson)

Buccaneer Surprise – Eric Ebron (TE, North Carolina)

I wouldn’t do it, but I think the one pick that could
surprise us is the Bucs taking UNC’s stud TE at #7. There’s a big talent need at the position,
and I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Bucs be aggressive in addressing
it.

REST OF DRAFT

R2 – Lamarcus Joyner (CB, FSU)

Yeah, I know, a Nole.
Get over it. I think Joyner is
the perfect defender for what Lovie is likely to do in Tampa.
Let’s first talk about the elephant in the room – Joyner’s size. He’s listed at 5-8, 180 which would obviously
put him on the small side. If you’ve
watched more than a few minutes of FSU football you’ve noticed that Joyner
plays far bigger in his size. Joyner
draws a lot of Ronde Barber comparisons, and they make sense. He’s a dangerous blitzer, is fast and can
change directions quickly, covers a ton of ground, has excellent ball
anticipation, and isn’t afraid pop you.
He’s understandably a drag-down tackler, given his size, but he stays
with his man to secure the tackle. He’ll
be a stud on special teams. Lovie’s
defenses have been predicated on fast guys making plays in space, and Joyner
certainly fits that description and would be an immediate upgrade at the nickel
corner and third safety spot.

Other options –

Troy Niklas (TE, Notre Dame)

Kyle Fuller (CB, Virginia Tech)

R4 – CJ Fiedorowicz (TE, Iowa)

Due to a dry free agent market, I think it’s pretty likely
the Bucs will spend a pick on the tight end position. Here I’m giving them a player with great size
who could be their traditional in-line tight end to pair with the flexed out
Tim Wright. Fiedorowicz would be the
team’s best blocking tight end as soon as he put on a jersey and has plenty of
pass catching potential as well.

R5 – Jon Halapio (G, Florida)

It’s a tad painful to do this, but I want to get a lineman
in the draft and this is a good spot for Halapio. He’s a guy who logged a ton of starts against
impressive competition and could be in the mix for early playing time depending
on the situation at right guard.

R7 – Connor Shaw (QB, S Carolina)

I don’t think the Bucs will have a shot at Bortles or Bridgewater, but that
doesn’t mean I’m giving up on a passer.
I’d rather spend a 7th round pick on Shaw than sign a veteran
back up. Shaw is a winner. I love the combination of his mobility and
how he takes care of the football.
Simply put, he doesn’t make many mistakes. If he gets an opportunity to play in the NFL,
I think he’s going to surprise a lot of people.
I like him as a passer now, but I think he’s got plenty of room for
growth there still.

With this plan, I’ve got the Bucs addressing every position
of need except MLB. It’s rare that a
team is able to address every need in one offseason, and I’ll be pleased if
they fill most of the gaps I mentioned.

Saturday, February 1, 2014

So here we are. We’ve
reached the big one, and the Broncos and Seahawks are the last two teams
standing. To get here Denver pulled off a fairly one-sided win
against the always dangerous Patriots, and Seattle held off San Fran in what
may have been the game of the year. With
both Denver and Seattle making it to MetLife, this is only
the second time in the last two decades that both #1 seeds have squared off in the
Super Bowl. Earlier this month I predicted that we’d see these two in the final game, and I had Seattle earning the victory. What’s changed since then?

Peyton Peyton Peyton.
In case you haven’t turned on a television, radio, or computer or walked
by a newsstand the last week, Peyton Manning is playing in another Super
Bowl. Arguably, the games greatest to
ever toss it is on the verge of creating a ton of conversation, regardless of
the outcome. If the Broncos win, Peyton
will have earned his second Super Bowl victory in three chances and will
generate a lot of buzz (because ‘now’ always beats history in today’s hyper-attentive
world) as the greatest of all time. On
the other hand, if Denver loses (and assuming 18 doesn’t gift wrap the game to
Seattle) you’re going to hear about how Peyton can’t get it done when it counts
and that there’s no way to put him in the same class as Montana and Brady. Such is the world in which we live.

The last time the league’s best offense faced the league’s
best defense in the season finale was the 1990 season where the defensively
dominant Giants beat the Bills no-huddle attack 20-19 in Tampa.
Will Peyton add another chapter to his legacy, or will history repeat
itself 13 years later and 1,128 miles north?

Mr. Manning will earn his fifth MVP award before this game
kicks off. There’s no arguing that he
was the league’s best player this season.
What I found somewhat surprising is that in the previous four seasons he
won the award, he only made it to the big dance in one of them – the ’09 game
against New Orleans,
which, as I referenced earlier, was the only other time in the last two decades
that both top seeds won their halves of the bracket. Peyton runs the offense from the line of
scrimmage and usually knows what the defense is doing, sometimes more so than
players on the other side of that line.

This time he faces what I believe is the league’s most physical
defense (sorry San Fran). It’s a unit
that likes to get in your face early and disrupt your timing; something Denver relies on to move
the chains and make big plays with the football. It will be a tremendous test for both
teams.

For Seattle,
Richard Sherman doesn’t often move from his LCB spot, and when he does, it’s to
the slot, not the other side of the field.
That means Demaryius won’t have a shadow throughout the game. It’s not like he’ll get much of a break on the
other side though, as Byron Maxwell is no slouch himself. I think the key here with Thomas is that Seattle’s corners are
incredibly physical, and Demaryius, despite his size, isn’t known for his
physicality or dominance at the point of contact. Neutralizing or just simply limiting Peyton’s
greatest receiving threat would go a long way in getting Seattle to the celebration stage. Decker will see Sherman about half the time, and having the
game’s best cover man in his face won’t help improve his tendency to let the
ball hit the ground.

The guys I see doing the most damage in the passing game for
Denver are
Julius Thomas and Wes Welker. Welker
will line up in the slot against Thurmond, and I think he’s the guy Peyton will
look to especially on third downs to pick up those key catches over the middle. Julius has been one of the league’s best
tight ends this season, but Seattle
has handled that position better than anyone else in the game. This year the Seahawks faced Vernon Davis
three times and also faced Jimmy Graham and Tony Gonzalez. All three were held far below their
averages. A big reason for that is the
big punisher, Kam Chancellor. Extremely
underrated given the talent around him, the former Hokie is the most important
player on Seattle’s
defense in this game, in my opinion.
Seeing as he’ll have primary responsibility for tight end coverage,
Chancellor’s ability to make Manning look away from Julius or to keep the
athletic tight end in front of him will go a long way in determining the
outcome of this one. I already mentioned
that Sherman
doesn’t often move from his LCB spot, but when he does it’s to the slot. Carroll and company would be wise to send
Sherman Julius’ way a time or ten.

Peyton is no dummy. I
don’t think we’ll see him string a ton of consecutive pass attempts together
against this defense. That means we
should see a good bit of both Moreno
and Ball. The latter was expected to be
the main man this year, but he remained the clear #2 throughout the regular
season. All Knowshon did was finish in
the league’s top five in total yards from scrimmage. Not bad for a guy who didn’t figure to have a
prominent role back in August. While the
rib injury he sustained against the Patriots won’t keep him from playing in
this one, you’ve got to think Seattle
is going to take a few shots at the impacted area. Will it hamper his performance?

Ball will be rotated in, and I think he’s the more dangerous
player beyond the line of scrimmage.
Getting past that first line will be a tough task if the good Tony
McDaniel shows up. He, Brandon Mebane,
and Red Bryant are the main reasons why Seattle
ranks as one of the league’s toughest teams against which to run the
football. If the front line,
specifically Bryant, can get to the backs and keep them from running clean to
Bobby Wagner and KJ Wright, Seattle can make Peyton throw it more than he
probably wants to.

Anyone who follows football knows that you’ve got to get
Peyton off his mark if you want to be successful against Denver,
and Seattle’s
defense brings it from multiple spots. Free
agent additions Michael Bennett and Cliff Avril did the most damage this year
at getting to the passer, and Clinton McDonald established himself as one of
the game’s better interior pass rushers.
Their ability to push the pocket and force Peyton into making questionable
throws against an opportunistic secondary is exactly what Pete Carroll is
looking for. That won’t be easy given how
quickly Peyton consistently gets rid of the ball. Denver’s
line surrendered the fewest number of sacks in the league this season, but
Peyton’s style is the biggest reason for that.
Tackles Chris Clark and Orlando Franklin don’t have their names called
often, Manny Ramirez has been solid at center, and right guard Louis Vasquez is
their best blocker. The weakest link up
front is Zane Beadles, and with the aforementioned McDonald expected to line up
against him regularly, that could be the key matchup to watch up front. I can’t take anything away from Peyton; don’t
want to. He’s one of the best, but his
lack of zip on the ball could be a factor if Seattle is able to get him off his spot and
throw to a late read.

I don’t anticipate Denver
having sustained success on the ground, which means we’ll see plenty of Peyton
passes. That also means Seattle’s corners must disrupt receivers’
routes. They can’t allow Denver to get comfortable
with their timing and pick action. Two
factors are working in Seattle’s
favor. First, there haven’t been a ton
of flags thrown in these playoff games (hasn’t that been nice), especially in Seattle’s games. Second, this officiating crew is headed up by
Terry McAulay, an official known for keeping the flag in his pants. Former NFL strong safety, Steve Freeman, will
be the back judge, and he’s not one to take over a game either. This bodes very well for Seattle’s chances defensively. Peyton makes his living exposing mismatches,
but I just don’t see any weak spots in Seattle’s
secondary, including when Seattle
has to go dime and bring in Jeremy
Lane.
Peyton may be forced to move his feet more than he’d like, but he’s not
going to get sacked often (if at all), even against these pass rushers. Simply put, he will need to make the passes
an MVP QB makes in big spots, and Seattle
will need to stick to their roots – play physical football, support each other,
and don’t over-think.

Most offenses pale in comparison to the Broncos, but I
believe the Seahawks come into this one a bit under the radar. Russell Wilson’s job isn’t to light up the
scoreboard with a ton of passing TDs, but let’s not go extreme and call their
offense limited or one-dimensional.
After shutting out the Giants on the Super Bowl’s turf, Seattle played their last four games against
the 3rd (SF), 4th (NOR), and 7th (ARI) ranked
scoring defenses and a Rams front that gets after the passer. Denver’s
defense will need to be peeking at the right time if they’re going to present
as difficult a challenge as did Seattle’s
recent opponents.

When you talk about Seattle’s
offense, you’ve got to start with Beast Mode, Señor Skittles, Mister Media –
Marshawn Lynch. The man who doesn’t
enjoy speaking into a microphone lets his bruising running style do all his
talking for him. Everyone knows he’s
going to get the football, yet he continues to produce. In two playoff games Lynch has 249 yards and
3 scores on the ground, including 109 yards and 6 points against the nasty
Niners last week. Denver has put up impressive run defense
numbers this year, for two reasons primarily.
First, when Denver
gets up two or more scores on a team, the opposition often abandons the
run. Second, Terrance Knighton’s ability
to make the middle of the field a “no backs allowed” zone goes a long way in
shutting down a team’s run game.

Even with constant double teams from the threesome of
McQuistan, Unger, and Sweezy, I don’t expect Seattle to do much damage at all running at
Knighton. If they can run at the big
man, I think that means game set match Seattle.
Let’s play the safe hand and assume they can’t. I don’t expect Darrell Bevell to be stubborn
in this one. That means we should see
Marshawn doing most of his damage on outside runs, where he’ll look to
demonstrate his tackle breaking, big gain ability against a defense that’s been
known to miss a tackle or two.
Marshawn’s big games are highlighted by signature long runs. He had a 31 yard score against the Saints in
the divisional round and a 40 yarder for 6 in the conference championship
against San Fran. I’d be a fool to bet
against him doing it again.

Sticking with the run, the read option wasn’t a huge part of
the playbook this season, but when you’re playing 60 minutes of football for
the Lombardi trophy, you do whatever it takes to get the win. Following that line of thinking, I would
feature the zone read early in the game to keep Denver (specifically their defensive line)
guessing and attempt to break big runs on defensive breakdowns. Marshawn is the main weapon, but Wilson could be the difference-making
ground factor. The man doesn’t make
mistakes with the football and has that moment-seizing personality. Expect to see Denver
chasing the back of Wilson’s jersey a bit come
Sunday as the QB is used as a runner more than usual in an effort to keep Denver’s defense from
keying on his best offensive weapon.

Without the ultra-athletic Von Miller, the Broncos are going
to have to be opportunistic yet assignment-sound against Wilson and Seattle’s
offensive line. Shaun Phillips had 10
regular season sacks, but he’s only totaled 3 in his last 8 games. Malik Jackson has been a more than admirable
replacement for the injured Derek Wolfe, but he’s not a consistent pass rushing
threat. Robert Ayers has gone from utter
bust to decent defender, but he has just 3 sacks in his last 12 games. The lack of a dominant pass rusher or steady
rush threat will a big help to a Seattle
offensive line that isn’t one of the more stout units in the league. They’re a smaller, more mobile bunch that
must move as does their QB.

I’m not going to pretend Seattle’s
receiving corps is as prolific as Denver’s
machine (Seattle’s leading receiver would rank
fifth in Denver),
but at full strength they’re an extremely underrated unit. I believe this is a matchup they can
exploit. Where Seattle
can go four deep at corner in front of two All Pro safeties, Denver is shallow in the secondary after
DRC. The Broncos surrendered a
middle-of-the-pack 7.1 yards per attempt through the air this year, while the
Seahawks led the league at 5.8. Denver’s defense also gave up nearly twice as many passing
TDs as Seattle’s
(29 to 16).

The Broncos lost arguably their best corner (Chris Harris) a
few weeks ago in that divisional round win over the Chargers. The moment Quentin Jammer replaced Harris, San Diego’s passing game started clicking, and Denver was fortunate they
didn’t have to play another 15 minutes. Jammer
found himself behind Carter on the depth chart after that game. Future HOFer Champ Bailey has dropped
retirement hints this week, but before starting the Canton
clock, he’ll need to repeat his conference championship performance for the
Broncos to keep Seattle’s
receivers in check.

DRC figures to see a lot of Seattle’s leading receiver, Golden Tate. Tate does a lot of his damage on short
passing patterns, but DRC hasn’t allowed receivers to break free for big
gains. Julian Edelman was able to get a
little physical and be successful against DRC last week, and Tate is a similar
smaller, strong receiver. Will Tate break
a few, or will this one end up a wash? Given
the balance in that matchup, I expect to see Wilson focus most of his attempts on besting
Bailey and Carter, primarily with Baldwin and Harvin.

Let’s start with Percy.
The always-dangerous ever-brittle weapon finally got onto the field this
year against the Saints in the divisional round and was able to make a few
plays before getting knocked out with a concussion. He missed the Niner game but is apparently
good-to-go for the Super Bowl. We know
what Harvin brings to the table. The
question is how long he’ll be able to do it before getting hurt again. Because of that great unknown, I expect
Bevell to get Harvin engaged early and often.
Throw him short passes. Throw him
deep balls. Give him the ball on an
end-around. Use him as a decoy. Seattle
needs to maximize Harvin’s threat and make the Broncos worry about him every
play he’s on the field. I’m also
expecting Seattle
to have him return the kicks that Matt Prater can’t put through the back of the
endzone. The more attention he draws in
the passing game, the better that bodes for Marshawn and the running game.

A healthy Harvin (at least at kickoff) puts Baldwin in the slot where he’ll primarily face
Bailey. I love this matchup for Seattle, and it’s the key
one on this side of the ball in my opinion.
Baldwin is exactly what Denver
doesn’t want to see with a Harrisless (yeah I went there) secondary. He’s dangerous deep, and he doesn’t drop the
football. Champ may have had a good
overall game against the Patriots, but Baldwin is better than any receiver New England has besides Edelman. I expect Baldwin
to lead the Seahawks in receiving and score at least one TD. He’s my dark horse Super Bowl MVP
candidate.

Who Wins?

Well it doesn’t look like weather is going to be a factor in
this one after all. Current projections
call for temps in the mid 40s, maybe some rain, and little to no wind
factor. That plays in Denver’s favor. If these officials stay true to form, they’ll
hold onto their hankies. That plays in Seattle’s favor. If Denver’s
line can give Peyton time to catch the snap and his receivers can run picks
with impunity, advantage Denver. If Harvin can stay on the field and
contribute to keeping Denver’s defense on its
heels, advantage Seattle. The fact that Denver dominated the Chargers
and Patriots in their two playoff games yet was unable to put either away is
something that stands out to me as a reason to expect this one to remain close. I’ve also got to think that the fact Seattle
has already won on this field this year, in convincing fashion, will make them
a bit more comfortable in a game that is always emotional.

Again, to me these are the matchups on which to key –

Terrance
Knighton against Seattle’s
interior offensive line

Red
Bryant containing Knowshon Moreno and Montee Ball

Russell
Wilson reading ends Shaun Phillips and Malik Jackson

Doug
Baldwin mid to deep against Champ Bailey

Julius
Thomas trying to hide from Kam Chancellor

Clinton
McDonald pass rushing against Zane Beadles

In the history of the league, 7 times has the team that led
the league in scoring made the Super Bowl.
All 7 times that team lost. Does
Peyton break the streak, or does Seattle
make history?

Highlights –

Peyton
Manning throws for over 300 yards but has as many INTs as TDs (2)

Byron
Maxwell turns one of those INTs into a pick-6

Percy
Harvin stays unharmed and on the field throughout, totaling over 100 all
purpose yards

Montee
Ball outrushes Knowshon Moreno 54 yards to 42

Denver records more sacks than Seattle (2 to 1)

Russell
Wilson and Marshawn Lynch combine for 158 rushing yards

Wes Welker
leads the Broncos in receiving yards and scores once

Neither
kicker misses an attempt (FG or PAT)

Danny
Trevathan and Bobby Wagner combine for 22 tackles

Seattle will lead at halftime, but Denver will lead going into the fourth
quarter

The battle of #1s proves to be sports entertainment at its
best. In the end, it’s Russell Wilson’s
offense that steals the show. On a
broken play late in the fourth quarter, Wilson
finds Doug Baldwin running free for a 46 yard game-winning score. Seattle
wins its first Super Bowl title in team history, and Peyton Manning’s greatness
(unfairly in my opinion) will continue to be questioned incessantly.

Seattle 30

Broncos 24

MVP – Russell Wilson

Scoring breakdown –

1Q –
Russell Wilson 1 yd TD run (SEA 7-0)

1Q –
Byron Maxwell 26 yd INT return for TD (SEA 14-0)

2Q –
Julius Thomas 6 yd TD reception (SEA 14-7)

2Q –
Steven Hauschka 37 yd FG (SEA 17-7)

3Q –
Wes Welker 18 yd TD reception (SEA 17-14)

3Q –
Montee Ball 3 yd TD run (DEN 21-17)

3Q –
Steven Hauschka 44 yd FG (DEN 21-20)

4Q –
Steven Hauschka 28 yd FG (SEA 23-21)

4Q –
Matt Prater 51 yd FG (DEN 24-23)

4Q –
Doug Baldwin 46 yd TD reception (SEA 30-24)

Congratulations to both of these teams for making it this
far, and thank you NFL for another exciting season.