Oscar Predictions and my top 12 movies from 2008

As many of you know, I am a big time movie buff. I catch all of the top-rated movies each year and I’m constantly renting movies on Netflix that adds to my repertoire. I’ve seen all but a couple of the movies involved with the Oscars this year and here are my dead-lock cinch Oscar predictions as well as who I think should win.

Best Picture: Slumdog Millionaire

Should Win: Slumdog Millionaire

Z-Report Says: Slumdog Millionaire has a very unique way of telling Jamal’s story with flashbacks and I was entertained by the movie the entire time with no lulls. I liked Milk, but Sean Penn shined brighter than the movie and Benjamin Button had a Forrest Gump feel to it in the way that it told the story. I enjoyed Frost/Nixon as the second best movie in this category.

Best Actor: Sean Penn (Milk)

Should Win: Sean Penn

Z-Report Says: I know that the Mickey Rourke train is chugging along and I loved him in the Wrestler too. In fact, I think it would make for great television if he won because Rourke is a freak-show these days; however, Sean Penn was brilliant in Milk. I want to remind you that Penn has been in Fast Times at Ridgemont High, I Am Sam, Bad Boys and Milk. All were vastly different roles and all were exceptionally well-acted by Penn. While the Golden Globes went with Rourke, I think the Oscars go with Penn.

Best Actress: Kate Winslet (The Reader)

Should Win: Kate Winslet

Z-Report Says: This is a tough one because I think that both Anne Hathaway and Meryl Streep should be serious contenders in this category. Streep’s role is perfect for her, but I don’t think it allows her enough room to show different sides while Hathaway’s effort was surprisingly good. Winslet had another great year with The Reader and Revolutionary Road and I think she deserves to be the favorite here, but If there is going to be an upset, this is the category where we will see it.

Best Supporting Actor: Heath Ledger (The Dark Knight)

Should Win: Heath Ledger

Z-Report Says: While Michael Shannon was a show-stealer is “Bug” and at times this year in Revolutionary Road, the term “show-stealer” was invented for performances like Ledger’s in The Dark Knight. I know it has become popular to question whether or not his death is going to be what secures the Oscar for Ledger, but the fact is that he was simply the best in the category despite terrific performances from Shannon and Josh Brolin.

Best Supporting Actress: Penelope Cruz (Vicky, Cristina, Barcelona)

Should Win: Penelope Cruz

Z-Report Says: Cruz was really impressive in VCB, but she might not be as strong a favorite here as the the current 3.2-1 odds would indicate. Marisa Tomei from The Wrestler is going to be hot on her tail (and you all are hot on Marisa’s tail if you saw the movie) and Viola Davis from Doubt is going to be a formidable competitor.

I know, I know. But every year, I list at least one if not two movies that I thoroughly enjoyed rather than a movie that is up for Oscar contention. BTW, the only reason I saw Forgetting SM is because of highly it was rated by the critics. They LOVED that movie.

Ah yes, my favorite time of year. I’m glad to see Forgetting Sarah Marshall getting some end of the year love. I thought it was by far one of the best from the Apatow factory and furthermore, just an overall excellent film that doesn’t deserve to be forgotten in the midst of “prestige film season”.

I guess if all of your predictions are spot-on, you’ll be a happy man considering those who you predict to win match who you think should win. It seems like all the major categories are foregone conclusions with the only wide-open category being Supporting Actress. I think it’ll come down to Cruz vs. Davis. Cruz has been the frontrunner all along, but Davis single-handedly owned a film in which she only appeared for about 10 minutes (opposite the Streeper, no less). Plus, I just can’t see the Academy wanting to make Marisa Tomei a “two-time Academy Award winner” (although I don’t really have a problem with it).

Best Actor may be the most interesting race b/c Rourke has won every precursor imaginable up to this point and his comeback story has been all the rage, whereas Penn already has an Oscar and isn’t exactly well-liked around Hollywood. Nevertheless, you are right about Penn. He was just awesome in “Milk”. A truly great actor instantly makes you forget you’re watching a performance, you feel like you’re watching a real person and Penn aces it every time out. You got me on Marion Cotillard last year (I picked Julie Christie), but I’m gonna even the score this year. Rourke takes it.

P.S. Glad to see you’re using my “available in the U.S.” year rule (a la Lives of Others). Atta boy.

why do i come to you for movie advice? Its weird but i figure if lance likes it then id like it. Must be a texans fan thing but anyway i loved Slumdog and others but you failed to add “let the right one in” swedish vampire flick. It was the “mature” thought provoking version of twilight. Ill def be checking out “surfwise” when it hits in may thanks to you having it #1 i went and checked out the site. Texans need to nab San Jose ST DT jarron gilbert in first round via trading back if possible, if not im just not sure what we are/should do but im excited about next year. Later Lance.

Not being in your top 12, I was curious about these: Gran Torino, Doubt, W, Burn after reading, Man on Wire (documentary since you dig those). Did you ever see Che? I don’t know if it was ever shown anywhere here. Benecio was supposed to have pretty good in it.

Gran Torino – Revenge flicks are always nice, but the acting was so poor by the family next door that it annoyed me.

Doubt was good and the acting was terrific, but I saw it at Alley Theatre so I knew the storyline already which probably slowed the movie down for me. Good movie though.

I know many people didn’t like Burn After Reading, but Iliked it.

I didn’t see W and I didn’t have an extra 7 hours in the day to see Che.

Man on Wire was a nice doc and all, but I didn’t love it like I thought I would. I just didn’t do as much for me as Bigger, Faster, Stronger.

Honestly, I don’t want him anywhere near my team. I don’t want to pay that much for a guy who could very well disappear once he gets paid, and certainly not one who is as classless and thuggish as Haynesworth. Stomping on a guys face with cleats was all I needed to know, but watching him twice a year constantly trying to injure Schaub (and succeeding more than once) is icing on the cake. Yeah, we need players with mean streaks, but there’s a difference between a mean streak and trying to injure people. If the price of a Texans super bowl championship is having players that are out deliberately trying to injure others and constantly talking smack in the media, then I’d rather not win the super bowl. Obviously, though, that’s not what’s necessary to win or even get to a super bowl, so why we would bring Haynesworth even into the discussion is beyond me.

Just watch him stiffen and roll off Schaub’s knees and ankles in the videos of previous games, and watch how he’s constantly looking to make the type of hits that leave others injured – you really want that on your team? How do we have any room to complain about Jared Allen’s illegal hits to Schaub’s knees or Haynesworth’s cheap shots meant to injure and knock players out of the game if we turn around and HIRE HIM or players exactly like them?

I believe Penn’s previous win will hurt him this year. His performance wasn’t head and shoulders better than Rourke’s so I think the Academy will reward the prodigal actor. No one will be in an uproar if Mickey wins. Two fine heavyweights going toe to toe. I can’t wait.

PS. Talk about scene stealing check out Rourke’s cameo in Penn’s The Pledge.

Also, just wanted to let you know that every year for the Oscars the AMC on Dunvale has a showing for all the Best Picture nominees. I forget how much it is and all the other specifics, but it’s something like unlimited popcorn and drinks, two hot dogs, and all the movies back to back (with little breaks in between to get concessions, do trivia and prizes, etc.). It’s a good deal, and I went last year when we had a ridiculously strong crop (Atonement was VERY underrated and should have won in my opinion… although it was so depressing I don’t think I’ll watch it again), but this year I’m on the fence. It’s this weekend, and the thing is I haven’t seen any of them yet – but I just haven’t gotten excited about anything other than Frost/Nixon and Slumdog. I’ve been feeling “meh” on Benjamin Button, strangely had no desire to see Milk, and haven’t even seen a trailer for The Reader (and heard very little buzz, if any). What do you think, is this year’s crop worth going to?

BTW – I was surprised to find Bigger, Stronger, Faster so high on the list, but not because it was a bad movie. That movie made me really call into question a lot of my assumptions on steroids, and I still think about it pretty often. Not sure I’d put it as high as you, but I can certainly give props for good taste…

Yo LZ, what do you think about Sean Weatherspoon (6’1″ 235) LB from Mizzou. I don’t hear much run about him but was very impressive whenever I watched Mizzou play in particular against Northwestern in the Alamo Bowl. Not sure what his speed and cover skills are but the guy can lay a hit. What kind of grade do you have on him? I think he could be good value in the middle rounds…

Do you have any info you can share on the players the rockets got for Rafer?

I think Landry has some upside, but he’s not ready to put in big minutes yet while Brian Cook is just a guy. This was obviously a salary dump that prepares the Rockets for this offseason and put them in position to add a free agent.

Bell would be an upgrade, but I don’t know if the Texans put a premium on the safety position as it pertains to cap space. Bell is nice around the line of scrimmage and I would love to see him teamed up with Wilson or another FS.

Not going this year. There was a big falling out between two of the party organizers so the official party isn’t running. Also, the Super Bowl trip set me back a little bit so I can’t afford to head to Chicago this time around.

Did you see it or is this just some random commentary on something you have no idea about? –Posted by: fool at February 19, 2009 03:12 PMNo. I did hear an extended review and commentary of the movie from Michael Medved. He gave it as an example of the kind of leftist masturbatory cr*p that Hollywood’s putting out these days.Medved’s sorta conservative, but he does give props where due, to movies he doesn’t really appreciate as a religious Jew, but admits show creativity.”Milk” certainly wasn’t that.Gee, L.Z., how’d you like “Lions for Lambs”?

Oh, so somebody told you want to think about something that you never saw for yourself. Got it. I prefer to make my own mind up about things one way or another. I don’t know what was “leftist” about the movie. It was about something that actually happened with Harvey Milk getting shot while in office. I’m not sure how politics play into this, but whatever. I never saw Lions for Lambs. Tom Cruise movies have been stinkers so I rarely waste my time on them anymore.

Of course I didn’t see “Milk”, why would I need to make an intelligent/informed statement? Everyone knows that I am a complete arrogant a-hole, who likes to spout off about everything. Now enough of this, I need to get back to trolling internet messageboards to find random men to have relations with in local public restrooms

I hate to bring up a pretty big omission to the top 12 list, but it needs to be said. I personally think The House Bunny should be right in there between Slumdog Millionaire and Frost/Nixon.

The script was run of the mill, but the depth of Anna Faris’ performance really cemented it as a hands-down top 5 movie of ’08. It’s an understated role, but she really brought it to life. I’m really surprised it was snubbed all around by the academy.

That’s ok LZ, asking “fool” if a movie is great is kinda like asking a eight-year-old why the sky is blue. You will get an answer, but it will just be based on what someone else told him about the subject. I prefer to watch a movie and make up my own mind, that’s part of the joy of cinema. To each his own i suppose…

This movie came out a few years ago but it is one of my favorite movies of all time. “Green Street Hooligans.” It manages to portray Elijah Wood as an all out bad ass. Definite must see. Two questions Strake Jesuit related. Where do you project Chris Ogbanaya? Also, Strake just finished an undefeated regular season in basketball, give them some love on 1560!

Couldnt agree with you more on Slumdog .. Great movie , great story , very well done .. We took our 11 & 15 yr old daughters with us to see it as well ..

I believe theyre better after seeing it , they both loved it .. It shows them how lucky they are living in this great country .. It shows them how unfortunate others are and how perserverance pays off , without the use of foul language , sex and nudity , for a change …

and Fool…for the love of God, can you shut the “f” up for once and just choose to not “stir the pot”, or “ruffle the feathers”??? The next time you get sick, go and see this specialist…he’ll be able to help:

“Oh, so somebody told you want to think about something that you never saw for yourself. Got it. I prefer to make my own mind up about things one way or another. I don’t know what was “leftist” about the movie. It was about something that actually happened with Harvey Milk getting shot while in office. I’m not sure how politics play into this, but whatever. I never saw Lions for Lambs. Tom Cruise movies have been stinkers so I rarely waste my time on them anymore.”

A couple years back (like last year) you had said that the combine coverage from NFl Net. is a excellent tool that coaches and scouts are now able to use. I believe you said this year recently that the combine is overrated and NFL personnel don’t care for all that much. I’m a fan LZ and enjoy the show, but have noticed a couple of flaws of what you say from one day to the next. Glad to see the station is doing well, keep it up.

LOL. I think you misunderstood. Why would I say that the NFL Network’s coverage of the combine is good for scouts and coaches when they all have to go to Indianapolis in person? They can’t even watch the coverage. Now the coverage is nice for draft fans for sure, but it isn’t a factor for coaches since they have to interview players for themselves. However, the NFL Net’s hyping of the combine has been at full speed this year. Just real quick….. what did the above answer to fool’s question have to do with your comment?

Yeremiah Bell is available? Wow… I didn’t see that. That guy is a beast.

I have a buddy with Fins season tickets so I fly down to a few games a year with him and Bell is a huge fan favorite there with good reason. He’s always around the ball!

I’m with you LZ – I don’t think the Texans will do it, but I’d love to see Bell next to E. Wilson!

LZ – what do you think about the Daunta tagging situation? From the Chron article he seems pretty pissed off. It reminds me of the Samuel situation up here a couple years ago in how it was handled. That was not a good situation to the Pats (Samuel skipped camp) and I wonder how this will turn out for the Texans… Thoughts?

Dunta can be pissed all he wants, but Rick Smith had no other option. You hang onto him and see how he is physically next year. You can just give him a monster deal if you’re not sure about him physically.

I see your point although I have heard you say that Tuna doesn’t bother going to the combine anymore with his scouting personnel, due to everything being televised.

As far as “what did the above answer to fool’s question have to do with your comment?”

I wasn’t sure if you were siding with your opinion or just what you were being told.

BTW, “LOL” do you not read your own blog?

Jerry, you misunderstood. I said that they can watch it on TV if they want to, but all of these practices are taped by the NFL and all teams get that film. It’s way different than what you see on television… it’s coaching film. Also, one of the most important aspects of the combine is the ability to interview players and give them physicals and that has nothing to do with NFL Network.

On the Dunta thing, I’m guessing that the Texans actually had a “monster” deal on the table, it just wasn’t as “monster” as Dunta and his agent wanted. Wouldn’t they continue negotiating after the draft and try to get Dunta to camp with a long term deal if they can? No one wants a sour puss in camp.

I think I would have done the same thing if I were in Rick Smith’s shoes, except for one key difference: I would NEVER promise a player that I had no plans to franchise him if there was even a slight chance that I might. In fact, if he had said the opposite, it might have given him more leverage in the negotiations.

Got ya, thanks for the info. Would it be worth our wild to trade down to say 20-25 and grab Michael Johnson and have Mario on his back to get better? Grab a OLB in the 2nd. Something about Cushing has me nervous.

I didn’t mean to get snippy if it came off that way. I’m battling the flu and it is whipping my ass. As for moving back to 20-25, Johnson could be an option if he tests well and if the Texans were happy enough with what they saw on tape.

Good job on the Oscars. I watched almost all of the movies in the 5 cats you picked correctly, but I only had Slumdog & Ledger picked correctly, and those were mostly just because of the media hype. I liked the Benjamin Button movie better than Slumdog, I liked either Langella or Rourke over Penn, and Streep or Hathaway over Winslet.

Thanks for you top movie list. I’ll have to check out Surfwise, BS & F and the Counterfeiters.

Cheers and keep up the 1st rate work on the NFL draft and free agency.

Let’s see, Anquan Boldin ran a 4.71 forty at his combine. As I recall, Larry Fitzgerald wasn’t exactly a burner, either. Despite those facts, some NFL scouts are concerned about getting a forty time for Michael Crabtree? No wonder certain teams consistently screw up in the draft, while others pick their pockets.

Anquan Boldin was also a 2nd round pick. That is the value for a really good WR who runs in the 4.7s. In fact, the third could have been a landing spot also. That’s the point. If Crabtree runs a 4.65, then his value isn’t in the top 5 because he won’t be able to stretch the field deep. Fitzgerald ran in the low 4.5s and plays fast during games. If Crabtree were to run in the low 4.5s, he would solidify his draft stock, that’s all.