2011 Desktop and Notebook Roadmaps

Next year promises to herald what may be the biggest change in PC chip architectures in years, as both AMD and Intel plan to integrate graphics functions on the CPU dies, creating a new base level of graphics functionality in even the most inexpensive machines. While the basic machines themselves are likely to stay pretty much the same, the two big PC processor makers have significant differences in their roadmaps, and these differences could have significant impacts on the systems based on their technologies.

Next year promises to herald what may be the biggest change in PC chip architectures in years, as both AMD and Intel plan to integrate graphics functions on the CPU dies, creating a new base level of graphics functionality in even the most inexpensive machines. While the basic machines themselves are likely to stay pretty much the same, the two big PC processor makers have significant differences in their roadmaps, and these differences could have significant impacts on the systems based on their technologies.

Intel's Roadmap

At the Consumer Electronics Show early next month, Intel is planning to formally introduce its new line of chips, based on its new "Sandy Bridge" architecture that it has been discussing for the past few months.

Just like the "Westmere" series of chips Intel came out with at the beginning of 2010, these chips will be based on 32nm high-k/metal gate process technology and will be branded Pentium, Core i3, Core i5, and Core i7. But they have a new internal architecture, so the company refers to them as the "second generation Intel Core technology" chips.

Including the graphics and moving the technology to 32nm should allow for faster graphics performance at low power; and Intel says it has completely redesigned the graphics engine itself, including both the "shaders" and various other logic that control specific graphics functions. It also includes a dedicated video decoder, and new to this generation, specific features for encoding H.264 AVC and MPEG videos, which the company has said will enable huge performance improvements in transcoding videos.

The chip also features improvements in "turbo mode" where the processor can direct power to specific parts of the chip while leaving others in an idle state. The big change here is the ability to do this among the CPU and GPU components. Other big changes include new Advanced Vector Extensions (AVX) which work to allow 256-bit floating point calculations and perhaps most importantly, a new "ring bus" internal architecture which sends information among the different parts of the chip, including allowing the GPU and CPU parts access to cache memory. Intel says all these changes should make the chip perform faster in the same power envelope, particularly on graphics calculations, although as usual we'll wait to see final systems to judge this.

As with the last couple of generations, Intel will be playing up "hyperthreading," its name for symmetric multithreading that lets a single physical core run two threads at the same time. Currently, Intel uses a combination of cores, clock speeds, whether hyperthreading is on or off, and the inclusion of "turbo mode" to differentiate among its major consumer chip brands (ranging from Celeron to Pentium to Core i3, i5, and i7).

The best guess is the initial product on the market will be quad core desktops and notebooks (some with 4 threads, some with 8) under the Core i5 and i7 brand names, with dual-core versions following shortly thereafter. This is because Intel's current quad-core chips are older 45nm processors known as Clarksfield and Lynnfield, while the dual-core line is already 32nm. Intel's names for the platforms based around the chips are "Cougar Point" for desktops and "Huron River" for notebooks.

Over the course of the year, as Intel ramps production, it's likely that these Sandy Bridge chips will become the vast majority of the company's desktop and laptop offerings.

And while the graphics are improved over previous integrated graphics versions, many manufacturers will offer both integrated graphics models and models that add discrete graphics. On the desktop side, that means AMD Radeon or Nvidia GeForce PCI Express boards, while on the notebook side, it will often mean using Nvidia's Optimus technology.

For the highest end of the desktop market, aimed at enthusiasts and serious gamers, Intel will continue to push its "Gulftown" 6 core/12 thread chip, which is always paired with a discrete graphics solution, and usually a very high-end one.

On the netbook side, Intel currently dominates the market for these lower-performance, lower-powered machines with its Atom line of single- and dual-core processors. The current systems known as the "Pine Trail" platform include a dual-core version introduced this summer and a single core version that came out last December. Marketed under the Atom N series moniker, these currently top off with the 1.5 GHz dual-core N550 and the 1.8 GHz single-core N475. Pine Trail includes a 45nm Pineview CPU.

In 2011, Intel plans to introduce its "Oak Trail" platform, which is said to contain a new CPU called Lincroft and a new controller hub called Whitney Point. This system-on-chip design is expected to debut early next year, and Intel has particularly pointed to a number of tablets that will be built with the system, which is expected to support Windows, Android, and MeeGo. The Oak Trail platform is also expected to be used in thin netbook designs, although details on that are still light, although the company has said Pine Trail and Oak Trail will coexist. Intel has used "Atom N" for netbooks, and "Z" for tablet versions, so that will likely continue.

While the graphics in Pine Trail have notably trailed traditional notebooks, Nvidia has offered a solution called Ion that pairs the Atom processor with its graphics.

Late in the year, we're likely to hear more about "Ivy Bridge," a 22nm shrink of the Sandy Bridge architecture. Typically Intel alternates process changes with architectural ones in a "tick/tock" cadence, so I wouldn't expect major architectural changes, but I wouldn't be surprised to see Direct X 11 and USB 3.0 support.

AMD's Roadmap

AMD's notebook and desktop changes in 2011 are planned to be staggered through the year, with three quite different platforms aimed at different markets.

Two of these solutions -- the Brazos platform aimed at netbooks and lightweight notebooks and the Llano chip aimed at mainstream desktops and notebooks -- follow through on AMD's "Fusion" architecture plans by combining CPU and graphics functionality on the same chip, which AMD calls an "accelerated processing unit" or APU.

This will be seen first in the Brazos platform, due out around CES, and aimed at netbooks, where AMD has not been a major player, and thin-and-light notebooks. The processor within the platform will be known by two different names - Ontario, which is designed to need only 9 watts of power; and Zacate, which uses 18 watts and thus delivers more performance but is designed for somewhat larger systems. As a result, AMD seems to now be pushing Zacate more into the space of mainstream notebooks.

Both will be available in either single- or dual-core versions (although it seems to be a dual-die design), and use a new core known as "Bobcat" and will be produced on TSMC's 40nm process, which the company also uses for its discrete graphics chips used in the Radeon and similar lines. Bobcat is designed to be particularly power-efficient though with less performance than current mainstream chips, similar to Intel's Atom in that regard.

AMD believes it has a notable performance advantage versus Atom when it comes to graphics, as the chips will have Direct X 11-capable graphics processors, similar to discrete notebook GPUs the company introduced a year ago. It looked very good in on-stage demos, but as usual, we'll have to wait until we see final systems.

While the Zacate version is likely to get positioned into some mainstream notebooks, the chip AMD has targeted for the mainstream desktop and notebook markets is code-named Llano, and now slated for shipping in "the first half" which most people take to mean in systems available in the summer. In the meantime, the company will continue to sell its current Athlon, Turion, and Phenom lines, used in the Danube and Dorado notebook and desktop platforms.

Llano will be the company's first chip made on the 32nm process at Globalfoundries, and is based on a variant of the "Stars" core used in the current 45nm processors, but with the addition of graphics capabilities that should be notably beyond that used in the Brazos platform.

Llano is designed as a quad-core chip, although dual-core variants should also be available. And while specific details on performance aren't available, the company did talk about several areas where it thinks it has advantage over Intel's Sandy Bridge, including DirectX 11 and Open CL support.

AMD has also talked about how the combination of its APUs and its AMD Radeon discrete graphics solutions should allow for better overall graphics performance. AMD has talked about how discrete GPUs typically work in systems with much faster GDDR memory than what is used for normal system memory, and how that can make for better performance.

Intel would counter by saying most games today don't need DX 11; and by touting its ring bus and shared caching design. Obviously, we'll really know when we see real systems.

Llano will be used as part of the Sabine platform for notebooks and the Lynx platform for desktops.

At the highest end of the line, aimed at enthusiasts and high-end gamers, AMD plans an 4 or 8-core desktop chip known as Zambezi, based on its upcoming high-end "Bulldozer" core, which is planned for use in the company's server line as well. Like Llano, this will be built on Global Foundries' 32nm process, but is expected to come out after the quad-core chip.

Zambezi will be part of the Scorpius platform, where it is likely to replace the Leo platform with its Phenom II X6 processor as the company's top-end offering, designed to be paired with high-end discrete graphics. Thus far, AMD's highest-end CPUs haven't been quite as fast as Intel's, but have sold for much less money.

Going into 2012, AMD has plans for upgrades to all of these chips, including chips called "Krishna" and "Witicha" based on Bobcat but produced at 28nm, replacing the Ontario and Zacate chips; "Trinity" based on a Bulldozer core, replacing Llano; and "Komodo" based on the next generation Bulldozer core, replacing Zambezi.

Michael J. Miller's Forward Thinking Blog: forwardthinking.pcmag.com
Michael J. Miller is chief information officer at Ziff Brothers Investments, a private investment firm. From 1991 to 2005, Miller was editor-in-chief of PC Magazine, responsible for the editorial direction, quality and presentation of the world's largest computer publication.
Until late 2006, Miller was the Chief Content Officer for Ziff Davis Media, responsible for overseeing the editorial positions of Ziff Davis's magazines, websites, and events. As Editorial Director for Ziff Davis Publishing since 1997, Miller took an active role in...
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