Mike it's all a cunning front office plan to drive down the price of resigning Estrada:). Kidding aside. I would like to see Estrada back next year as a 4/5 starter if the Jays are willing to field capable OF defence next year.

Just to further the point about Estrada. His BABIP this year is .323 versus a career line of ,267. Yet his component stats are within spitting distance of career norms. A tick higher line drive rate but a career high high in FB% (which should produce a lower BABIP). Call it bad luck, call it terrible OF defence or both. His BB rate is too high, no doubt. Maybe that's related to the fact that his flyball's aren't getting caught? I don't know. I think he's a good gamble to bounce back.

Estrada' s problem has been fastball command which has led to his highest BB and HR rates as a Jay. Add to that a karmic BABIP and you've got an ERA in the 5's. He's got a lot riding on his final 10-12 starts. Let's hope tonight's effort against an admittedly feeble lineup is a sign of things to come.

It wouldn't surprise me if the Jays are planning to bring Estrada back next year. Of course a lot will depend on how he finishes the season and whether he's traded in August, but Shapiro has openly stated that he hates the free agent SP market and Estrada should be a short-term investment (age, coming off a down year) who is signable due to his history here. I guess we'll see in a few months. I agree that he is a bounce back candidate with a better defense behind him next year (it can't possibly be worse).

When it comes to resigning Estrada one of the issues that I don't have good hadle on is what the public perception of this would be. I expect a significant focus of the front office's offseason plan will be to sell the public on the idea that the 2018 team will be competitive. I don't know how resigning Estrada would play with casual Jays fans.

I wouldn't say that on Joe. Tonight's game broke a streak of 10.2 scoreless innings where he had pretty good peripherals. Osuna does seem to be in something, but he's been so good this season too. Maybe just a bit of fatigue on both?

With showcasing no longer a factor, I am hoping that we have seen the last of the Pearce/Bautista/Morales combination against RHPs. Please rotate them through so that Carrera plays against RHPs. Bautista still leads the league in games played. It's really weird for a player who has been struggling as much as he has.

Looking forward to 2018, the team's payroll now seems likely to be about $125-$130 million with Stroman, Sanchez, Happ, Osuna, Tepera, Barnes, Biagini, Leone and Loup as pitchers under control, and Martin, Maile, Smoak, Travis, Tulo, Donaldson, Hernandez, Pillar, Carrera, Pearce and Morales as position players under control. They obviously need a middle infielder, two starters (perhaps one of Tepera and Biagini might rejoin the rotation), a reliever or two, and an outfielder. They've got four or five players currently in double A who might be able to help out by mid-season 2018.

I know the Jays are a slow team, and are dying for some young OFs to be able to contribute, but the graphic here really drove it home for me:
https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/sprint_speed_leaderboard?year=2017&position=&team=TOR

Slowest RF (by a lot) and SS (by a lot), slowest 1B, slowest team in the majors I have to imagine (how could any team be slower?). The only starters with above average speed by position are Donaldson and Martin. Pillar is the only starter faster than an average player (including all positions) and he's a slower CF (wasn't two years ago, but he's slower now) than most. The Jays even acquired one of the slowest catchers in Montero. Carrera is the fastest guy on the team, and he's just regular speed for a MLB OFer.

Since these numbers have only existed for three years it's impossible to know, but I wonder if any team has ever been so relatively slow to the league.

I know the Jays are a slow team, and are dying for some young OFs to be
able to contribute, but the graphic here really drove it home for me:

What really hit home for me was looking at the 2 previous years. 2016 had 2/3 of the team at above or average. 2015 had a few more below average, but they had a few that were at least close, and Smoak was second last with over 25 (2 better than Navarro). Poor Dionner Navarro was brutally slow the 2 years tracked.

Carerra at 28.7 in 2015 and Pillar 28.6 in 2015 are now at 27.8 in 2017.

It's an interesting tool, because some people are much faster than I'd imagine - Joey Gallo 27.4? It's painful how much slower Bautista is than the next slowest in RF 26.2

Is there any chance Jays keep Aoki as a lead off hitter and move out some other Of's.

The obvious one, on paper, would be Bautista. But in a lost season, I don't think he will be subjected to the humiliation of being released or riding the pines to close out his Jays career, either to accommodate Aoki or Hernandez.

In fact, I can't even think of who Aoki squeezes out for a spot on the 25-man roster. With Carerra around, Aoki seems redundant.

The numbers suggest that Bautista has been a better defender than Aoki this year (contemplate that for a moment) and they have been almost identical at the plate. Aoki has been a terrible defender for a while now. Aoki does appear to be slightly better than Bautista on the base paths. Aoki for Bautista is a lateral move at best. Aoki just needs to be cut.

The numbers on Aoki's defence are mixed. UZR has him at -1.4 for the year; DRS has him at +1 for the year. If you look at 3 year numbers, you end up with UZR -3 and DRS -3 over about 2,000 innings. I'd treat him as -2/150G. Bautista's 1 year numbers are -2.2 UZR, -10 DRS, and his 3 year numbers are -18 UZR and -21 DRS in 2600 innings. I'd treat Bautista as -10/150G.

Personally, I think that the best defensive configuration with present personnel has Aoki and Carrera in the corners. It doesn't matter much.

Bautista got a day of rest on Sunday, as many fans had been suggesting, and it didn't help him at all. He was 0-for-5 again on Monday.

What keeps hope alive, of course, is his awesome month of May, when his slash line was .317/.422/.644. It's the only evidence from this season that suggests he might not have completely lost the plot. But it's increasingly looking like an anomaly.

The Jays strategy, I assume, has been to keep giving him regular playing time in the hopes that he will rediscover whatever made him good in May. That's why they're running him out there every day. In the past, he has thrived on daily playing time, and he has thrived at the top of the batting order. This year, none of those things are true.

Kudos to those Bauxites who had predicted, in the off-season, that Bautista is likely entering a permanent age-related decline. I wasn't sure if that was true, but now the evidence is overwhelming. His OPS has dropped by 100 points in each of the past two seasons.

Benching him would have been pointless, however. The only way that the Jays could contend in 2017 was if Bautista could return to his classic hitting form -- or at the very least the levels of 2016. If he couldn't do that, there weren't enough good hitters on the team to pick up the slack, especially after the Travis injury. So the Jays were always going to sink-or-swim on Bautista's performance. He sank, and the Jays couldn't swim.

At some point, I'm sure, the Jays will begin to give more playing time to some of the outfield prospects. But probably not until September. There's no obvious prospect who is knocking on the door at this point. All of the prospects (Dwight Smith, Hernandez, Fields, Alford) could benefit from more playing time on their minor-league teams. And in general the Jays have been generous to their aging stars in situations like this when the playoffs are out of reach. They allow them to preserve their dignity without being dumped to the bench.

"...Outside of Russ Martin, who are the highest profile FA's we've signed since Burnett and Ryan in 2005?..."

I'm not sure why we would use "high profile" as a criteria or a metric. What matters is not the height of their profile but the success of their performance. Estrada and Happ were brilliant in 2016, and for portions of 2017 as well. They were excellent free-agent signings. It doesn't really matter that they weren't "high profile" at the time -- they performed much better than other higher-profile players.

But the basic point remains: the Jays don't easily attract free agents, because of all the biases against playing in Canada. It's always a struggle to attract free agents. That's why I think the Jays in the upcoming off-season should be looking to bring back players who have already enjoyed their time in Toronto -- including Estrada and Joe Smith. It would allow the Jays to avoid the traditional anti-Canada prejudice.

Aoki fractured his fibula in late June, 2015 and later had a concussion. Both UZR and DRS agree that he was worse defensively in Seattle in 2016 than before or after.

Both DRS and UZR think that Aoki's arm is a positive, at about the same level that Bautista's is this year. Damned if I know. The only thing I do know is that Bautista is by a long ways the slowest right-fielder in the league. It may be that Aoki's other failings are not sufficiently captured by either DRS or UZR.

I do know that neither outfielder should be playing much once Hernandez arrives.

I don't know either Mike. I think you're probably right that Aoki is better defensively than Bautista, particularly if he's in LF. But he's still going to be a below average to poor defender. I am probably being too harsh in suggesting that he should just be released. You could probably find worse 4th OF options out there. I guess I am just tired of watching poor defensive OF play. I need to get more zen about it for the remainder of the year.

"I'm not sure why we would use "high profile" as a criteria or a metric."

The point was in respect to casual fans. As for success of performance, we don't know until they actually perform. I was one of the few who bought into the Happ signing - it was (rightly) pointed out by many that was a lot of money and term for a guy with a sizable career of less-than-successful performance.

Yeah, there is the anti-Canada with some, anti-turf with others. I can imagine how frustrating it must be for our GM's.

But the basic point remains: the Jays don't easily attract free agents, because of all the biases against playing in Canada.

I have been saying this for a while and have yet to be right about it, but sooner or later, this fact will change. All of our other major sports teams in Toronto are considered attractive destinations for FAs, and the same issues - taxes, patriotism, crossing the border - apply to them. More and more Canadians are playing pro ball. More and more people frankly prefer the Canadian lifestyle, I think, with our more multicultural, tolerant society.

If I'm a young minority with lots of money and willingness to travel, I'm interested in super-cool, diverse Toronto. And would anyone here, if given the chance to have a tax-friendly environment vs. a more socialist, egalitarian city, chose somewhere like Florida?

The biggest problem with this team is that you cannot predict what they will do from now to the end of the Season. Most of the luck they've had this year in bad, but luck always balances out. When does that happen? It's so easy to think they'll be barely average to slightly poor, but they could just as easily go 22-5. I think until they are officially eliminated from the Postseason, we can't say the Season is over yet.

I hope so, but did you see the interview Joe Smith gave after he was traded? He was talking about the uncertainty he and his wife felt coming to another country when he signed with Toronto. This is a white dude from Cleveland and he's talking like he'd be living on Mars.

I recall interviews with Pinball Clemons talking about coming to Toronto with Nanook of the North visions in his head. Perhaps young black Americans from the south are more worldly now and see Canada differently, but I'm not so sure. Once they get here, they're fine. It's just the getting them here that's the problem. Whenever I hear of teams on players' no-trade lists, Toronto always seems to be there.

"I hope so, but did you see the interview Joe Smith gave after he was traded? He was talking about the uncertainty he and his wife felt coming to another country when he signed with Toronto. This is a white dude from Cleveland and he's talking like he'd be living on Mars."

That blew me away as well. Bad enough coming from a good old southern boy but an Ohio native?

Once they get here, they're fine. It's just the getting them here that's
the problem. Whenever I hear of teams on players' no-trade lists,
Toronto always seems to be there.

Yep. Once players are here, either drafted in or traded for, a lot of them seem to like it, and find it cool representing an entire country. Also the Jays haven't had much trouble extending players that are already here if the team wants to, it seems. There still seems to be a stigma among the American free agents about signing here though. Probably less among the Latin Americans because if they're here or in the U.S. it's a foreign country either way.

I posted sometime last off season asking who was the last significant American-born free agent the Jays had signed, who wasn't previously a Blue Jay. I was defining 'significant' somewhat subjectively, but I had in mind an everyday position player, one of the five starters, or maybe a closer. I think the answer turned out to be Kelly Johnson. Before him...I don't even know who. All the back to the BJ Ryan and AJ Burnett signings!?

He has been DFA'd to make room for Aoki, who is with the Jays already tonight. Aoki is not in the starting lineup, so it will be interesting to see how the Jays use him. He appears to be the 5th OF and pinch-runner right now.

Any reason why Barney is playing over Refsynder? I get that Ref turning into a good 2B is a huge long shot, but at least there's some potential there based on his minor league track record to hit a little bit. Worst case he is what he is, and best case he turns into something useful. There's really no upside to playing Barney, unless it's at short with or instead Goins with Tulo out.

I hope August and September is not a lineup full of vets until the season ends. The first four months were boring enough.

Every Analyst kept saying the Orioles (Like the Jays) should be sellers, instead the Orioles were buyers saying that no team is running away with the division - the Orioles are now 31/2 games out the WC & 51/2 games out of the division - good on them, even if they don't make the playoffs, they're not giving up & I would love for them to make it - incidentally, if Osuna hadn't blown those 2 saves recently, the Jays would be inching back to WC contention.

Donaldson is starting to move around and barrel up balls like his old self. It's a bit weird to me that his renaissance appears to be happening in the middle of a long stretch of games. It's not like he's had an extended break to rest (he's been banged up) or refocus.

Looking at the A.L. East standings, the Jays are amazingly only 8.5 games out of first. It's almost incomprehensible to imagine a hot couple of weeks getting them within 4-5 games, considering just how bad the offense has been, and how few innings the starting rotation has given to this point.

The Orioles window is closing way faster than ours though. Like the Royals -they both should be going for it. We can contend next year though, and moving forward. Some times you just have to pack it in? The beauty of baseball is anything can happen, for sure, but this team doesn't feel like 2015 or 1989 to me. I honestly think we could put a better team on the field with some hungry AAAA guys from Buffalo.

As stated payroll will drop. The Pen looks strong and deep on paper. As long as Osuna is in it.

The rotation has 3 reliable pitchers. Osuna could be a 4th. This has already been discussed. A good and healthy rotation will take you far.

Defense and offense have been exposed as a major area for needed improvement. Injuries play a big part.

I accept that our offense and defense has been terrible. Outfielders that cannot catch reasonable fly balls.

I would like to see the young outfielders given a position. Just learn on the job.

I think Goins is a fine backup IF.

What happens with Donaldson is a major factor.

Making the rotation good enough and deeper is another unknown. We had some great rotations in the past. I would like to build a team that can compete with the rich Bosox and NYY for a few years. IMO the only way is with a V good and cheap rotation.

I agree hyperbole. I expect an optical appearance of contending. Estimates (assuming Bautista is let go) for the current roster for 2018 are approximately $125m. I would guess at the signing of two starters on short term "show me" deals (Estrada and ?) I would guess about $20m per year for those two contracts. I would guess at a reliever deal similar to the Smith/Howell deals so say $5m for that. I'd also guess at the signing of an outfielder of Pearce's caliber - something like $5-10m per year. That would put the payroll in the $155-160m range. That's probably a 78-84 win team. Then let the Rogers marketing machine go to work.

What would a 7-17% increase in payroll (to match the ticket price increase) look like? Sportrac has the 2017 cap allocations at $170M. BBRef has it 158.5M. If the payroll is around $180M in 2018, I would be content. I'm not holding my breath.

Nigel has set out a reasonable series of signings, with costs. 2 SPs, 1 reliever and 1 OF/IF which would bring the payroll to about $155 mil. The team would be capable of 5 games above or below .500. Then the communication dept would sell this as a team capable of contending.

I hope I have accurately described the proceedings. If not ... no malice intended.

I have some questions. I have given up on 2017. My new hope is to patiently wait for Vlad, Bo and Alford to hopefully form a new core. One day.

So what about Donaldson? Is he in the original $125 mil?

Why do we have to get a $5 mil reliever like Smith/Howell/Grilli. I believe that we have as good on hand Tepera/Barnes/ Leone.

The added OF/IF will take away a spot on the active roster from a young/inexperienced OF. I really want a young OF to be given a spot. A middle IF on the other hand at $5 mil makes sense. Like M Izturis.

I am fine with a cheap team that wins. I really don't want an expensive bad team.

Lastly I cannot understand or deal with marketing. Meaning that as long as you raise payroll then it is ok to raise ticket prices because we are spending the money to satisfy our fans.

These stats make sense (and illustrate how meaningless a reliever win is). McGowan is a low-leverage reliever used in games the team is losing. If they come back, he gets the win. Knebel is brought into games the team is already winning so doesn't figure to get wins, just saves (and losses).

So Cashman and Dombrowski have compared each other's team to the Golden State Warriors. ESPN has a mostly silly story on which MLB team is most like GSW. However when talking about homegrown talent, this caught my eye:

"We can calculate homegrown talent simply by looking at homegrown WAR (via seamheads.com). The 2017 rankings through Tuesday:

Love those 2 links today. The Korean fight that became a hug, and the Japanese umbrella song. I'm sure they would get a kick out of OK Blue Jays. Sadly I missed it when I went to a game with the kids recently as I went for a refill on my drink when the Jays ended the 6th and the other team was up and down crazy fast. Ah well. Jays won in the end and my daughter had a blast as did her best friend (my daughters 2nd game, her friends first).

FYI: If you can go very early as then you can see the roof closed during batting practice for the visitors and then it opens (if good weather) just before the game. The girls had a blast. FYI: there is one free refill for your $9 cup of pop now. And you thought prices were bad at movies.

Crazy fun, glad you guys liked the clip. Japanese fans are hugely entertaining, but the Swallows fans are the best of the bunch. I think it's just an old folk song that they are singing but they shout some 'banzais' (like, 'let's go') in there too.

Hanshin Tigers fans have the best 7th inning stretch celebration:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sarvtQCnrdM

This was just in Fangraphs, Lars Anderson on playing indie ball in Japan. He's got an awesome attitude about it:

The bullpen is unexciting and the lineup has a couple of holes (Galloway and Surhoff can both play third base from time to time to help ameliorate one of them), but there is some nice top-end talent here and the infield defence would be good.. It's kind of fun to imagine what kind of career Luke Easter might have had, had he not spent 3 and 1/ prime years in the Army and had there not been the colour bar.