Month: January 2018

#9 is a Philip D’ Amato Debut 1 Sprint going down the hill. D’ Amato has started 133 debut 1 sprinter’s and he hit the exacta with 42 for a 31% exacta rate.

Copy of edbain.com online racing stats

These are really good numbers. This Race is a down the hill sprint turf race in a Maiden Special Weights. D’ Amato has started 13 runners on debut 1 sprint down the hill and hit the exacta with 6 for a 45% hit rate. 11 were Maiden Special weight races and he hit 5 for a 45% exacta rate down the hill.

Joe Talamo is a very good jockey. He has hit the exacta with 101 different trainers. Talamo is one of those jockeys’ that makes me wonder why he is not known as a top jockey. Overall he has 1,432 races and hit the exacta 442 times for a 31% exacta rate. Talamo hits with 12 trainers that he rides for with a plus 30% exacta rate. He is one of the Southern California jockey’s that I look for when I have a bet to add him into an exacta or single him as key horse bet. At Santa Anita Talamo has 3 trainers that produce a total of 127 exactas; Ron Ellis 98-35-36%, John Sadler 75-28-37% and today’s trainer Phillip D’ Amato.

Talamo has not had that big horse that elevates his name and highlights his abilities and moves him into the top 5 jockey’s in the country however, Talamo numbers are not eye opening, just a constant 30% exacta rate. I believe he is a top jockey and that is good enough for me.

Does any one have The Racing Form? Can supply me with the Tomlinson numbers for Distance and Turf for More Than Ready and Empire Maker.
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Every bet I make involves a 4 race form cycle. At Aqueduct Race 7 the # 1a Speke has a Morning Line of 7/2. Todd Pletcher has a Debut 1 Sprint stat of 314-84-26% to win. Pletcher moves up to 34% on Debut 2 Sprint, 34% for Debut 3 Sprint and then the form cycle dives on Debut 4 Sprint 9%.

Pletcher’s stats at Aqueduct for Debut 1 Sprint are 34-12-35% to win. 29 of these races were Maiden Special Weights. At Aqueduct, he won with 12 for a 41% win rate.

Manuel Franco and Todd Pletcher went to post 169 races and won on 32 for a 18% win rate. At Aqueduct these two are 110-22-20%.

In Maiden Special Weights these two are 9-1-11% at the Big A. That MSW stat is the reason I will bet cautiously. If his odds drop to 5/2 or lower I will pass the bet.

Santa Anita Race 8 the # 6 Rye has a morning line of 3/1. William Morey has a Lay 1 Route stat with This Owner of 13-5-38% win rate. The owner is Joseph P. Morey Revocable Trust. Over all on Lay 1 Route Morey is 42-10-23%.

Kent Desormeaux is switching from Frank Alvarado. The horse is a shipper and on the turf. Rye loves to win 15-7-46% win rate. Desormeaux and Morey are 20-8 40% win rate. On the turf Desormeaux and Morey are 6-4-66% If Morey gets bet to 8/5 I will pass the bet.

Results: The Aqueduct Race missed. Santa Anita, the 8 Rye hit and paid $6.00, $3.60, $2.80. The $2 Exacta paid $23.60. His morning line was 3/1. He went off at 2/1.
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What they are saying about Ed Bain’s new Horse Racing NovelLibraries, Yellow Cheese Sandwiches and 38,880 Running Lines

Libraries, Yellow Cheese Sandwiches and 38,880 Running Lines is a fascinating and moving story of a true horse player and innovator in the world of Thoroughbred handicapping. The story flows effortlessly with a simple and concise style that makes the reader want to keep reading. For both the horse racing enthusiast and the non-horse player, this book is a must read that dives deep into core human emotions… everything from loneliness to self-doubt to finding your passion. As a youth, Ed found a “friend”, in the form of a library and found his passion as an adult in the form of horse racing.

Ed’s horse racing passion is handicapping. I first heard of Ed from the Daily Racing form Expo in 2004 and was immediately drawn into trainer statistics as a method of creating a system of focus and discipline in approaching the races as an investment, not a gamble. Libraries, Yellow Cheese Sandwiches and 38,880 Running Lines delves into the passion of discovery of the system, or innovation if you will. Most innovators and entrepreneurs will tell you that they need a rival to drive them. Ed talks about his rival is the “average good handicapper”. To defeat his rival, Ed found his edge in the countless hours of analyzing past performance data, which can be a lonely and difficult endeavor.

Ironically Ed’s ability to independently focus as an adult likely was the result of some of the pain he had has a youth and the hours alone in his sanctuary, the library. In reading this story, I reflected back on my own life and I not only learned about Ed, but I also learned something about myself. Thank you Ed, for a wonderful story and a true, thought provoking experience.
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I have just finished Libraries, Yellow Cheese Sandwiches and 38,880 Running Lines by Ed Bain, and this was my second time through the book since I recently acquired it. The first time proved an enjoyable journey through a “stream-of-consciousness” narrative that I couldn’t put down—good story and addictive personal story-telling. The author states in the front matter that this is a work of “fiction.” Well, maybe. But all good fiction draws from life, and my wager is that this fiction is close to Ed’s real deal, and so much the better. Great stuff!

I knew as I read that a lot of interesting handicapping information was flowing by like a river—thus the immediate “second reading.” I took a yellow highlighter and had a grand time. Anyone who loves racing, handicapping, or an angle on how to “do well” NEEDS to read this book. Ed is kind enough to give us a great story, AND the insider information on his system…one that uses his specific talents and genius to grand effect. This book belongs in any library of racing and wagering, and be sure to read it at least TWICE! Looking forward to ordering/subscribing to and reading his other offerings, especially those that pertain to Southern California. Thanks for sharing your story and your talents, Ed!

Mark Cramer I hope this book circulates beyond the usual hard-core horseplayers because it contains many hard-learned lessons from an incredibly fractured childhood and adolescence, a troubled but regenerating tour in the marines, and the ghosts of the past that haunt him as he tries to reconstruct his adult life, relying on numbers and facts to ward off the irrational life that envelopes him. October 21 at 5:44am

Libraries, Yellow Cheese Sandwiches and 38,880 Running Lines is a revealing and engaging story about the human condition and the enormous discipline and psychological stamina required to even consider the possibility of winning at the races. Mark Cramer Author

Many successful gamblers come from diverse backgrounds with unique upbringings. Ed’s triumphant career as a professional player is no exception.

The hardships and growing pains that every player faces as a fledgling racing aficionado affect us all. However, it’s the school of hard knocks, bad beats and harsh realities of the game learned early on that often lay the foundation for successful play later. Some adjust but most don’t. Ed is one of those rare exceptions. His methodical and statistical approach to betting goes against the grain of every racing text book and supposed expert’s philosophy in the field. His meticulous approach to betting and life in general makes this work a must-read for any diehard handicapper still on the racing journey or any new punter looking to place his first $2 bet.” –Dean Keppler Former Director of DRF Press for Daily Racing Form and author of Betting the Kentucky Derby and Trainer Angles.

As a horseplayer I never really address losing bets. I only talk about how I select key horses to bet and score. However, through record keeping by recording my winning and losing bets as well as the stat that was the reason why I made the bet is the way I became a successful horseplayer.

I have a 25% cash rate. I average 4 bets a day, hit 1 and make a living.

The problem is accepting averages which is a middle number from a list of numbers added together to strike an average. Averages give me the tendency of my selection. The reality of betting into a percentage is much more difficult to understand than you would think. 1 win from 4 bets I would say is an approach I could bet every day and go home happy. The problem with averages is that it is not the way I score. If in fact I hit 1 from every 4 bets instead of averaging 1 hit from every 4 bets I made there would be no emotional response to my losing selection. This is the difference between the average of betting and winning and betting and losing.

When I first used record keeping as a tool I recorded each bet. I did not really know what I was supposed to figure out from my betting records. I did like most players would do, concentrate on the bets I cashed on and I ignored the losing ones. Handling the emotions of a losing streak is part of betting for a living. Hitting 1 from every 4 bets includes a series of never ending losing streaks and a constant awareness of my emotions.

I recorded each bet by month which limited my expectations for a 25% hit rate because I always felt next month could be an improvement from last month. I could also see all the bets I cashed on in one spread sheet. At first I did not realize that record keeping is about the losing bets and not the winning bets. The losing bets are where the improvement of my playing came from.

After my second year of betting for a living I transferred each month onto one spread sheet to view all my selections for the year and how I won and lost. It was an eye opener. I had made 1,000 bets, averaging 83 a month, 4.15 bets per day. I had 240 bets that I cashed on that second year and I wanted to congratulate myself on being a successful horse player from those 240 wins.

I turned off the lights, got a bottle of coke and hit the page down button on my computer key pad 14 times. On each page I could see the big bets I cashed. I noted the smaller 7 horse field exactas that I cashed on prevented the losing side of betting from overwhelming me and these hits kept my emotions in check.

I sat there smiling. I had done it. I can make a living betting on the horses. I would never have to go to another job interview and go to work for some company ever again. What a feeling.

I paged up to find big hits and hits that I needed timing wise that would end a losing streak. It was fun. These 240 hits were personally rewarding. At times I sat in my office chair and my legs would go straight out and I would get an emotional response to what I have accomplished. 14 pages of big wins, great memories and a feeling of triumph.

I hit page down to see all the bets I had lost. I kept hitting the down arrow over and over. 22 pages produced 760 losing bets, an accepted compromise of losing to get 14 pages with 240 wins. I knew these 22 pages are where I had to study. Learning how I lose is as important as finding out how I win. The reason is emotions; how to handle my anger or disappointment when I lost and particularly the close calls that I bet and lost on. I sorted again to find out how.

My longest winning streak was 6 in a row. This took 2 days 5 exactas and 1 trifecta. My longest losing streak was 32 in a row. This took 8 days, almost 2 straight weeks of losing. I had kept betting at the same size, always aware of any change I made which I did not.

I averaged 1 to 2 hits a day 12 days a month. I have 8 days a month where I have no hits and I still maintain a 25% cash rate. Every week I produce either a 10 or a 12 race losing streak from 21 bets a week. That is every week. My worst month I lost 75 from 83 bets, 8 winners and I had a hit rate of 9%. I was down over half of my betting bank. My best month was 29 wins from 85 bets for a 34% hit rate. I tripled my racing bank.

I knew that this is probably the best I could do betting for a living and that the payouts would vary. The question is could I get these numbers month after month year after year. The size of my hits I would cash on would vary. If I could control my emotions and not let that loss rate scare me into betting favorites to produce a hit to end a bad run of losing bets I knew I could bet like this for years.

If you know where you lose, then you can figure out how to win.
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The jockey switch is one of the most ignored trainer moves in all of sports. I can’t imagine Baseball, Football, Hockey or Basketball not going over personal switches and comparing each players statistics and questioning Why did management change players. The only sport that does not discuss personal moves is Horse Racing. The fun of handicapping is the people in racing, the Jockeys and Trainers. I have been calculating statistics for over 25 years. I have detailed stats on all of them and I feel as if I know all of the jockeys and trainers personally even though I view them only thru a betting statistic.

The jockey switch was first really explained well by Mark Cramer when he explained the Class drop Jockey shift. Mark tried to tell us that a switch to a higher percentage jockey and dropping in class is a significant factor as a bet and Mark was correct. Here are the jockey switches today at Santa Anita.

Race 1
# 1 Trainer P. D’Amato switched to Joe Talamo who is 65-31-48% in the exacta from Tyler Baze who is 38-12-36% in the exacta. A switch from a go-to jockey from a go-to jockey.

# 6 Trainer Richard Mandella has a go-to jock on this first time starter with Mike Smith 30-12-40% in the exacta. The problem is Mandella on Debut 1 in a Route race at Santa Anita is 16-0, no hits in the exacta.

Race 2
# 2 Trainer Jeff Mullins switched from Cory Nakatani who is 3-2-66% to Tyler Base who is 138-40-29%, At 7/5 odds, this is a no play for me.

# 4 Trainer Mathew Chew switched from E. Roman who has 0 races to Tiago Pereira who is 12-6-50% in the exacta. At 5/2 he could be a play however, I like big stats, with a lot of tries and wins so I’ll pass the race.

Race 3
# 5 Trainer Bob Baffert has three runners in the race. Baffert at one time supplied jockey Martin Garcia with a ten year supply of hits in one year. Martin Garcia had 270-110-41% in the exacta at Santa Anita. Baffert has Victor Espinoza on his runner today and they are 29-12-41% in the exacta.

# 7 William Spawr switched from Tyler Baze who is 23-11-48% in the exacta to Mike Smith who is 14-4-29% which will prevent me from betting for the same reason as Peter Miller.

Race 5
# 3 Trainer Jerry Hollendorfer switched from Drayden Van Dyke who is 29-3-10% to E. Roman who is 14-7-50% in the Exacta. He cashed 7 with Roman and 3 with Van Dyke. I need more stats before I make a bet.

# 6 Trainer Kristin Mulhall switched from Tyler Baze who is 22-3-14% to Martin Pedroza who is 52-20-38% in the exacta, a go-to jockey switch however the horse has nocks against it as a play.

Race6
# 1 Trainer Peter Miller switches from Tyler Baze who is 88-42-48% in the exacta to Flavien Pratt who is 33-15-45%. A go-to to go-to.

# 7 Trainer Bob Baffert switched from Rafael Bejarano who is 91-34-37% in the exacta stats in sprints to Drayden Van Dyke who is 5-1-20%,

# 10 Trainer Jerry Hollendorfer switched from Joe Talamo who is 11-6-55% to Rafael Bejarano who is 138-68-49%. In this race Rafael ended up on trainer Hollendorfer horse instead of Baffert’s.

Race 7
Has no significant jockey switches.

Race8
# 7 Trainer John Sadler switched from Victor Espinoza whose exacta route stats are 107-41-38% to Flavien Plat who is 6-2-33% in the exacta.

# 8 Trainer Doug O’Neill switched from Mario Gutierrez who is 225-67-30% to Rafael Bejarano who is 101-35-35%. A go-to to a go-to jock.

Santa Anita has the best sprint race in America, 6 ½ furlongs down the hill on the turf. Most days the track cards one or two races down the hill. There is no group think with the jockey’s where they all wait for the turn and run to the lead. It is all out from gate to wire fractions that make me laugh because they are so fast. Visually the race is easy to see how they string out and then seem to gather at the part of the track that crosses over from turf to dirt and back to turf and the chaos it seems to create. Then the closers add more drama into basically the most exciting race to be involved in with a bet.

To me Santa Anita’s 6 ½ furlong down the hill on the turf is a jockey’s race. I have Jockey exacta stats on the 6 ½ furlong Down the Hill Turf Sprint Races. My play is Santa Anita’s Race 9 is the #9, Flavian Pratt and Richard Mandella Down the Hill.

Santa Anita Race 9 Jockey Exacta stats down the hill

#1 Frey M. 23-4-17%

#2 Quinonez A. 50-16-%

#3 Elliott S. 86-12-13%

#4 Gutierez M. 130-33-25%

#5 Roman E. No Stats

#6 Talamo J. 230-40-17%

#7 Nakatani C. 95-20-18%

#8 Bejarano R. 221-92-42%

#9 Prat F. 238-75-31%

#10 Espinoza V. 104-22-21%

#11 Pena B. 34-0-0%

#12 Baze T. 291-83-28%

#13 Roman E. No Stats

#14 Smith M. 78-30-38%

My key horse with Flavian Prat and Richard Mandella placed and the favorite came in first. Prat and Mandella keyed an exacta that paid $43.80.

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