FAU hurricane expert weighs in on predictions

June 13, 2012|Marci Shatzman mshatzman@tribune.com

If you want an impartial take on the 2012 hurricane season, just ask Howard Hanson.

For credentials, Hanson is a Ph.D. meteorologist whose specialty is research on atmosphere-ocean interaction with the behavior of low clouds and their role in the climate. His official title is scientific director of the Southeast National Marine Renewable Energy Center at Florida Atlantic University. With his hands full at the center he doesn't teach, but this Boca Del Mar resident advises graduate students as a professor of geosciences in the Charles E. Schmidt College of Science at FAU.

Q: The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, called NOAA, predicts a near-normal 2012 Atlantic hurricane season with a 70 percent chance of nine to 15 named storms with top winds of 39 mph or higher. Four to eight storms will strengthen to hurricanes. Of those, one to three will become major hurricanes with top winds of 111 mph or higher, ranking category 3, 4 or 5. Do you agree?

A: You really have to have a method to make early predictions and that's complicated. That started out of Colorado State University and The Tropical Meteorology Group headed by Dr. William Gray. They started looking at the history of hurricane season and developed empirical relations.

Q: Are they considered the authorities?

A: I think of them as being the most credible. Colorado is always pushing the envelope and NOAA is more conservative. Colorado put out a statement in December saying they couldn't put out a forecast. It was very responsible. Then they released an outlook in April and updated it recently [on June 1 at http://typhoon.atmos.colostate.edu/].

Q: What happened recently with the big storms in Jacksonville?

A: You could trace Beryl sweeping across the peninsula. It formed out over the ocean and noodled around up there, headed west and went ashore at Jacksonville and wound up over south Georgia and headed east and weakened a lot. It was a tropical storm.

Q: That brings us back to hurricanes. Do you agree they're more common this time of year?

A: We call hurricane season June 1 to the end of November, but that's just the label we put on it and Mother Nature doesn't pay attention. Beryl was on Memorial Day weekend. I'm not sure these seasonal outlooks are very helpful.

Q: Why not?

A: A is for Andrew and that was the first storm of the season in late August. It was a very lightweight season in 1992. It's really deceiving to pay attention to seasonal outlooks. Even when the hurricane center and Colorado say it's going to be a lower season, don't breathe a sigh of relief. This time next week we could have a hurricane on our hands.

Q: NOAA says that if El Nino develops by late summer to early fall, conditions could be less conducive for hurricane formation. Do you agree with that and why?

A: El Nino sets up patterns in the atmosphere that tend to suppress hurricane formation. It has to do with the large-scale circulation. El Nino happens in the Pacific Ocean. It's a vertical sheer of the winds, a change of the wind as you go up in the atmosphere. Hurricanes like it when there's not a lot of vertical sheer.

Q: What exactly is your day job?

A: We're working to help industry get renewable energy from the Gulf Stream. We're developing infrastructure for companies inventing prototype devices so they have a place to test. We're working on getting permits from federal agencies. We're putting together a testing infrastructure 10 to 15 miles off shore of Fort Lauderdale.

Q: So back to hurricanes, what would you advise?

A: The best thing you can do is pay attention and it's always a good idea to get ahead of the crowd. Fill your car up. Go to the grocery store.