When Simon Kerrigan appeared in the Trent Bridge nets to join England’s pre-match preparations last Monday, the message was not to get carried away. Kerrigan, the 25-year-old left-arm spinner whose shock Test debut against Australia, at The Oval last August, proved such a harrowing experience, is regarded at Lancashire as being in the early stages of his recuperation.

His record this season is no better than reasonable, with 28 wickets in 11 County Championship appearances, at an average of 34.25 – and even England’s spin-bowling coach, Peter Such, appeared to discount the possibility of an imminent recall when discussing on Test Match Special what he described as the “shallow pond” that has been left behind since the retirement of the big fish, Graeme Swann.

“Spin bowlers in England tend to take a bit longer to develop,” said Such, referring to Kerrigan, the Durham leg-spinner Scott Borthwick and Adam Riley, the 22-year-old off-spinner who has made a major impression with Kent this summer. “Normally it’s 27 or 28, so they’ve still got time to hone their skills.”

Yet the strong whispers in Nottingham on Saturday afternoon were that Kerrigan will be included in a 14-man squad for the second Test, which starts at Lord’s on Thursday, notwithstanding the fact that he has now returned to Lancashire to play in a Championship fixture against Notts, which starts at Aigburth on Sunday morning.

That will be no guarantee of him winning a second Test cap on Thursday.

England are cautiously optimistic– with strong emphasis on the word cautiously, given bitter recent experience – that the pitch at Lord’s will offer more pace and bounce than the lifeless strip offered up for the Test against Sri Lanka last month, and Chris Woakes and Chris Jordan will also be included in the squad to offer fresh seam-bowling options, having been cleared of their county commitments with Warwickshire and Sussex respectively.

But if Alastair Cook and Peter Moores decide that they need a more balanced attack than the one they have employed so far this summer – which has left an uncomfortably heavy load on Moeen Ali as the senior spinner, and on the four seamers required to share the bulk of the overs as a result – then it appears that Kerrigan is the next in line.

Returning to him would be an astonishing gamble, especially against India batsmen who have such experience and skill against spin. The fact that he turns the ball away from the five right-handers in their top six would be seen as a bonus, with Moeen remaining available as a secondary off-spin option. Perhaps there is also a hope that he could benefit from an Indian desire to dominate him.

There were plenty at The Oval, that cruel day in August, who wondered whether Kerrigan would ever play for Lancashire again, never mind England. Cook decided it was kinder not to bowl him in Australia’s second innings after he had been plundered for 53 in eight overs in the first, but the youngster showed his character by putting his hand up to return for Lancashire the following month, responding to a warm welcome home for a county fixture against Hampshire, in Southport by taking seven wickets to secure promotion from Division Two.

It was a worry, at least from a distance, when he then withdrew from the England Performance Programme in Australia in October, and missed the start of the Lions tour of Sri Lanka after Christmas. But it turned out the latter was only down to an injury, from which he recovered in time to take a few wickets in the second half of the trip, and Kerrigan explained in an interview for The Observer in April that it was Moores – whom he described as “the best coach I’ve ever worked with” – who advised him not to go to Australia.

“I wasn’t feeling great,” Kerrigan admitted. “I was pretty devastated. But as time went on I managed to pick the bones out of it, take lessons and think about how I move my game forward.”

Now it will almost certainly be Moores who contacts his former Lancashire colleagues Mike Watkinson and Glen Chapple to determine when Kerrigan can be withdrawn from the Notts match to come to Lord’s – it is conceivable that England could also ask for Jos Buttler to be released, if Matt Prior suffers any reaction to the thigh injury that briefly made him doubtful for Trent Bridge.

England are in an unfamiliar and occasionally tricky position this season as only six of the current squad are centrally contracted, meaning they are relying on the goodwill of county coaches such as Chapple, Dougie Brown at Warwickshire and Mark Robinson at Sussex to release their players when required.

The other major issue over selection will be whether any of the four seamers employed at Trent Bridge are in need of a rest.

That may depend on how much they have to bowl on Sunday, but there must be a strong argument for giving Liam Plunkett a breather, perhaps until England finally play on a fast and bouncy pitch in the fourth Test at Old Trafford.