Wednesday, February 10, 2010

Wednesday What Happened - Ryan Grant's Contract Extension

Welcome to the inaugural "Wednesday What Happened" column where I look back at an organizational decision made by a Cheesehead sports team to see how that decision currently impacts the team. "Wednesday What Happened" and "Sunday Funday" will be two regular columns going forward with a smattering of other columns, chats, mailbags and other fun mixed in. If you missed the inaugural "Sunday Funday" article where I looked back at the Super Bowl XXXI, the Packers' last Super Bowl win, click here.

Onto Ryan Grant. Rewind to the Green Bay Packers' 2008 training camp. As the Packers were trying to deal with the Brett Favre saga, Ryan Grant remained unsigned. Grant was coming off an unexpectedly impressive first season with the Green Bay Packers thanks in large part to Brett Favre's impressive 2007 regular season performance (356 completions on 535 attempts for 4,155 yards, 28 touchdowns, 15 interceptions for a passer rating of 95.7) which forced teams to defend the pass and gave Grant huge running lanes over the last 9 games of the 2007 regular season.

Going into the 2008 season Grant was an "exclusive-rights free agent" but was unwilling to sign the one-year tender offered by the Packers. ESPN reported that in lieu of the one-year tender the Packers countered with a back end loaded six-year contract that paid Grant $2 million in the first year (source).

The Green Bay Packers almost never budge when players holdout for more money (think Mike McKenzie and Javon Walker) or refuse to take a pay cut (think Darren Sharper and Ryan Longwell). Grant and his agent Alan Herman knew that but tried anyway because the Packers had three things working against them.

First, the Packers did not have a viable starting running back on the roster besides Grant. The other running backs in camp at the time were Vernand Morency (released August 30, 2008), Noah Herron (released August 30, 2008), DeShawn Wynn (his injury in 2007 gave Grant the chance to star and flourish...some might argue without that injury Grant would be launching his modeling career as opposed to earning millions as an NFL running back) and Kregg Lumpkin (at the time was an undrafted rookie known for getting injured).

Second, the Packers were were preoccupied with the Favre saga. The Favre saga was such a PR nightmare that the Packers didn't want more public unrest.

Third, the Packers were handing the keys to the franchise to Aaron Rodgers, a promising but then unproven quarterback at the time. Having a quality starting running back was essential to help Rodgers flourish as a starting NFL quarterback.

In the end the Packer relented and signed Grant to a lucrative 4-year contract. I will first detail the initial terms of the contract. Then I will show how much money Grant has earned half way through the contract. Finally I will look at how much Grant stands to earn in 2010 and 2011 (spoiler alert...its a ton of money, Grant would be one of the highest paid Packers in 2011). Here are the initial contract terms:

Salary and Roster Bonus:2008: $750,000 base salary and $3.5 million roster bonus2009: $750,000 base salary and $2.75 million roster bonus due March of 20092010: $3 million base salary and $1.25 million roster bonus due March of 20102011: $3.5 million base salary and $1.75 million roster bonus due March of 2011

Easily Attained Incentives:
- $31,250 for every regular season game Grant appears in over the life of the contract (can earn up to $500,000 a year or $2 million over the life of the contract). This will be referred to as an "appearance bonus" throughout the rest of the article.
- $250,000 "off-season workout bonus" in the final three years of the contract.

Peer Related Incentives:
- If Grant finishes in the top 10 in the NFC in rushing in any year of the deal, he earns $150,000.
- If Grant finishes in the top 5 in the NFC in rushing in any year of the deal, he earns $500,000.
- If Grant is selected to the Pro Bowl in any year of the deal, he earns $250,000.

Yearly Rushing Yardage Contract Escalators:*
- If Grant rushes for 1,000 yards in a season, he earns an additional $500,000 in "base salary" the following season.
- If Grant rushes for 1,250 yards in a season, he earns an additional $1.5 million in "base salary" the following season.
- If Grant rushes for 1,500 yards or more in a season, he earns an additional $2.5 million in "base salary" the following season.
* = only apply to the first three years of the contract.

Final Bonus:
- If Grant rushes for between 3,600 and 4,099 yards over the life of the contract, he earns an additional $2 million incentive bonus at the end of the contract in 2011.
- If Grant rushes for 4,100 or more yards over the life of the contract, he earns an additional $4 million incentive bonus at the end of the contract in 2011.

Grant has already earned $10.15 million: $4.9 million in 2008 and $5.25 million in 2009

In 2008, Grant appeared in 16 regular season games contributing 312 rushing attempts for 1,203 rushing yards (3.9 average yards per carry), 4 touchdowns and 4 fumbles (3 lost). As a result, Grant earned $4.9 million in 2008:
- $3.5 million roster bonus
- $750,000 base salary
- $500,000 for appearing in 16 games
- $150,000 for finishing 6th in the NFC in rushing (source)
- $500,000 will be added to Grant's 2009 base salary for rushing for over 1,000 yards in 2008.

In 2009, Grant appeared in 16 regular season games contributing 282 rushing attempts for 1,253 rushing yards (4.4 average yards per carry), 11 touchdowns and 0 fumbles. As a result, Grant earned 5.25 million in 2009:
- $2.75 million roster bonus
- $750,000 base salary
- $500,000 for rushing over 1,000 yards in 2008
- $250,000 off-season workout bonus
- $500,000 for appearing in 16 games
- $500,000 for finishing 3rd in the NFC in rushing (source)
- $1.5 million will be added to Grant's 2010 base salary for rushing for over 1,250 yards in 2009.

Grant CAN earn $20.5 million more: $7.25 million in 2010 and $13.25 million in 2011

Before Grant ever takes a snap in 2010 he will be in line to earn $6 million:
- $1.25 million roster bonus
- $3 million base salary
- $1.5 million for rushing over 1,250 yards in 2009
- $250,000 off-season workout bonus.

Grant can easily earn another $1.25 million in 2010:
- $500,000 for finishing in the top 5 in rushing in the NFC in 2010
- $500,000 in appearance bonuses
- $250,000 if he makes the 2010 Pro Bowl.

That means Grant could easily earn $6.5 million and possibly $7.25 million if Grant has a Pro Bowl year. Grant can also add anywhere from $500,000 to $2.5 million to his 2011 base salary (rushing for 1,000 yards in 2010 earns him $500,000 more in 2011, rushing for 1,250 yards in 2010 earns him $1.5 million more in 2011 and rushing for over 1,500 yards in 2010 earns him $2.5 million more in 2011).

Before Grant ever takes a snap in 2011 (assuming he is still on the roster) he will be in line to earn $5.5 million:
- $1.75 million roster bonus
- $3.5 million base salary
- $250,000 in off-season workout bonus.

Grant has another $7.75 million in achievable incentives:
- $4 million incentive bonus at the end of the contract if Grant rushes for over 4,100 yards over the life of the contract
- $2.5 million if he rushes for over 1,500 yards in 2010
- $500,000 for finishing in the top 5 in rushing in the NFC in 2011
- $500,000 in appearance bonuses
- $250,000 if he makes the 2011 Pro Bowl.

Final Thoughts:
What have the Green Bay Packers gotten for their $10.15 million so far?

In 2008 Ryan Grant provided consistent output on the ground whether the Packers played a playoff team or a non-playoff team. Against playoff teams Grant rushed for 480 yards in 6 games or an average of 80 yards a game (92 yards against MIN, 83 yards against ATL, 105 yards against INDY, 86 yards @ TENN, 75 yards @ MIN and 39 yards against CAR). Against non-playoff teams Grant rushed for 723 in 10 games for an average of 73 yards a game (20 yards @ DET, 54 yards against DAL, 20 yards @ TB, 90 yards @ SEA, 145 yards against CHI, 67 yards @ NO, 104 yards against HOU, 56 yards @ JAX, 61 yards @ CHI and 106 yards against DET). To view Grant's 2008 game log click here.

That trend of balanced output against playoff and non-playoff teams came to a screeching halt in 2009. Check out Grant's rushing splits between playoff teams and non-playoff teams. Against playoff teams Grant rushed for 298 yards in 6 games or an average of 50 yards a game (46 yards against CIN, 51 yards @ MIN, 30 yards against MIN, 79 yards against DAL, 41 yards against BAL and 51 yards against AZ). Against non-playoff teams Grant rushed for 955 yards in 10 games or an average of 95.5 yards a game (61 yards against CHI, 99 yards @ STL, 90 yards against DET, 148 yards @ CLE, 96 yards @ TB, 129 yards against SF, 61 yards @ DET, 137 yards @ CHI, 37 yards @ PIT and 97 yards against SEA). To view Grant's 2009 game log click here.

That means in 2009 Grant piled up a bunch of rushing yards (and money) against non-playoff teams and didn't produce against playoff teams. Furthermore, since Grant signed his extension, the only playoff team he ran for over 100 against in the regular season was the Indianapolis Colts in Week 7 of 2008. The Packers pummeled the Colts in that game 34-14. Grant's stats weren't even that spectacular: 31 attempts for 105 yards for 1 touchdown and a long run of 14 (box score).

Ryan Grant is a good "one-cut" rusher in the zone blocking scheme that doesn't fumble that often (6 over his career, only 1 in 2009). That said, Grant is very one-dimensional. Grant provides little in the receiving game: 73 receptions for 458 yards for 1 touchdown for his three year Packer career.

Grant has shown flashes of being able to break long runs (think of his first run from scrimmage @ Chicago in 2009) but does that make him worth upwards of $13.25 million in 2011...certainly not. It will be interesting to see how Ted Thompson addresses this bloated contract he gave Ryan Grant in the next year and a half...