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Clutch Encounters: Week 10

by Scott Kacsmar

The good news from Week 10: the Chargers still know how to lose in incredible fashion, Pittsburgh still flirts with disaster in games when they're supposed to cruise, and Miami's three-week run in prime time is over. As for the bad news, the last five games of Week 10 were all duds, including some pretty poor performances from the Cowboys and Broncos.

We only had six games with a comeback opportunity this week, after only five in Week 9. There hasn't been a two-week dry spell like that since Weeks 13 and 14 of the 2014 season, when there were also 11 comeback opportunities in two weeks. It also happened three weeks in a row in Weeks 8 to 10 of that 2014 season, which was apparently less competitive than I remember. Still, even when compared to that year, close games and successful comebacks are down through 10 weeks.

The following table looks at where we stood through Week 10 in each season with fourth-quarter comeback wins, game-winning drives, games with a comeback opportunity, and total games.

4QC/GWD Opportunities Thru Week 10

Year

4QC

GWD

Oppt.

Games

Pct.

2012

41

49

84

146

57.5%

2013

37

47

93

147

63.3%

2014

38

43

79

147

53.7%

2015

44

49

90

146

61.6%

2016

44

50

90

147

61.2%

AVG

41

48

87

147

59.5%

2017

27

42

77

146

52.7%

In the previous five seasons, there were about 10 more games with an opportunity at this point, or one per week. There were also an average of 41 fourth-quarter comeback wins, but we've only had 27 so far this season. That's 10 fewer than any of these seasons listed. Maybe things will pick up for the stretch run, but offensive execution in crunch time has left a lot to be desired this season.

That's actually a perfect segue into what happened in Jacksonville on Sunday.

It was Week 10 last season when we introduced "Chargers BINGO" for all the crazy losses San Diego had in the Philip Rivers era. Now that the team has moved to Los Angeles, there have already been a few new entries to add to the card from this season. But nothing can top what happened on Sunday in Jacksonville. The Chargers gave us no fewer than three ideas for soul-crushing ways to lose a game.

Before we get to that part, it's not a classic Chargers loss if there wasn't a part where they did something right to make you believe they were going to win first. Rivers found some cracks in that stingy defense via an unexpected weapon in undrafted rookie running back Austin Ekeler, who had five catches for 77 yards and two touchdowns. Ekeler had a 14-yard catch that set up Nick Novak for a 50-yard field goal to take a 17-14 lead with 10:35 left in the fourth quarter.

The teams exchanged a series of punts before one of the wildest fourth-quarter finishes in NFL history. Blake Bortles took over with 2:40 left at his own 29. With 21 handoffs for 45 yards, Bortles didn't have any running game to speak of to support him. Jacksonville's best runs were a 56-yard touchdown on a fake punt and Bortles' own scrambles for 34 yards. The game was on his shoulders now, which has rarely been the case this season with Jacksonville blowing teams out. After Bortles moved the offense to midfield for the two-minute warning, the game took an absurd turn.

There were three turnovers in the next 36 seconds. First, Bortles forced a pass that was tipped to Tre Boston for an interception. At that point, Jacksonville's Game Winning Chance was at its lowest at 6.0 percent, according to EdjFootball. The Jaguars had all three timeouts, so it wasn't game over, but the Chargers made sure hilarity ensued. After a delay of game penalty, Ekeler got the first-down carry and fumbled. Tashaun Gipson recovered the ball and returned it for a 35-yard touchdown. Even though he did not appear to be touched down by a conclusive replay, the official reversed the call to Gipson being down by contact. With 1:48 left, Bortles had a second chance, but a taunting penalty by Marqise Lee set up a tough third-and-25 at the Los Angeles 37. Bortles again badly forced a ball for Lee that was easily intercepted by Boston with 1:24 left. Again, the Jaguars still had three timeouts left, so three runs by Melvin Gordon enabled the Jaguars to get the ball back. I don't get why Rivers wasn't allowed to throw on third-and-8 to ice the game. The Jaguars were going to stop the clock with their final timeout. Gordon was unlikely to convert with a run in that spot. The field position was bad, so it would have been ideal to not give Bortles a third shot. Alas, the Chargers punted and Bortles had 58 seconds left from his own 48.

This was already remarkable stuff. It is the only game in the NFL since 1999 where an offense started three drives in the final three minutes of the fourth quarter while trailing by 1 to 8 points. You're just not supposed to get this many chances to come back late, but this is Chargers BINGO. Even for Bortles the third time was the charm, but only after a roughing the passer penalty on Joey Bosa made the field goal probable. Bosa needlessly threw Bortles down at the end of the play. Josh Lambo was good on the 34-yard field goal to force overtime.

Jacksonville punted on its first possession. On third-and-9, Rivers threw up a deep ball for Travis Benjamin, but A.J. Bouye ripped the ball away from the receiver. That may not have been too damaging, but Bouye was able to make a great 51-yard return to the 2-yard line. Another taunting penalty on the Jaguars pushed the ball back to the 17. The Game Winning Chance was already 95.0 percent at this point, so the Jaguars stopped fooling around and just ran twice before centering the ball for Lambo.

But the Chargers weren't done fooling around. They were flagged 5 yards for delay of game for barking out signals, which is illegal. That yardage may seem inconsequential on such a short kick, but little did we know the Chargers would partially block the kick, only to see it still pass through to win the game. That shorter distance helped Lambo, who just so happened to be the Chargers' kicker last season. Only the Chargers could block a game-winning field goal that still becomes a game-winning field goal.

What a brutal way to lose a game, but this is what the Chargers specialize in. We're also about to start making a BINGO card for sloppy game-winning drives by Bortles. If he's not setting up a SICO (self-inflicted comeback opportunity) with a pick-six in London, he's falling on the ground on fourth down with no time left against the 2015 Ravens. Now add this masterpiece of escapism.

Bortles threw two interceptions after the two-minute warning with his team trailing … and his team still won the game. That truly might be a first in the NFL's 98-year history. Going back to 1994, there have only been three other times where a quarterback threw even one interception in the final two minutes while trailing and still won the game.

2002 Browns at Jaguars: Down 17-14, Cleveland's Tim Couch was intercepted by Jacksonville with 1:25 left. Jacksonville added a field goal to take a 20-14 lead, leaving Couch 47 seconds to answer. He threw a 50-yard Hail Mary touchdown pass to Quincy Morgan with no time left for a 21-20 win.

2010 Falcons vs. 49ers: Down 14-13, Matt Ryan threw an interception to Nate Clements, who was chased down and stripped of the ball by Roddy White with 1:22 left. The Falcons recovered at their own 7, giving Ryan a second chance. He led a 68-yard drive that ended with Matt Bryant's 43-yard game-winning field goal with two seconds left in a 16-14 win.

2015 Steelers at Bengals (AFC wild card): Down 16-15, backup Landry Jones was in the game for an injured Ben Roethlisberger. He was immediately intercepted by Vontaze Burfict with 1:36 left. The Steelers had three timeouts left, but Jeremy Hill fumbled on first down and Pittsburgh had a second chance. Roethlisberger returned for the drive and set up Chris Boswell for a 35-yard game-winning field goal after the Bengals racked up 30 yards in penalties in the final seconds. Pittsburgh won 18-16.

It's unlikely that any other pairing of NFL teams could have produced an ending as farcical as what the Jaguars and Chargers did here. In what should go down as a return-to-the-playoffs season for Jacksonville, this one won't be forgotten any time soon.

When the No. 2 team in DVOA is coming off a bye to visit the No. 30 team and all its turmoil, a comfortable win is expected. But when the Steelers are a 10.5-point road favorite, the safest bet in the league is that Pittsburgh will make their fans completely uncomfortable for the next three-plus hours. We had the stats on this in Football Outsiders Almanac 2016, and I have updated the table for how the Steelers have done in the Mike Tomlin era (2007-2017) relative to the rest of the NFL when favored by at least 7 or 10 points, split by road games and all games. Spread data is from Pro Football Reference.

Steelers: Playing Small in Small Games (2007-2017)

Favored by

Split

Straight Up

vs. Spread

PIT

Pct.

Rk

Rest of NFL

Pct.

PIT

Pct.

Rest of NFL

Pct.

10-plus

All

20-4

0.833

22 of 32

278-41-1

0.870

10-14

0.417

148-166-6

0.472

10-plus

Road

6-3

0.667

16 of 18

47-5

0.904

1-8

0.111

21-31

0.404

7-plus

All

38-11

0.776

22 of 32

666-162-3

0.803

24-25

0.490

395-421-15

0.484

7-plus

Road

12-7

0.632

22 of 28

135-41-1

0.766

5-14

0.263

82-93-2

0.469

On the road, Pittsburgh is near the bottom of the league as a big favorite straight up, and an awful 1-8 against the spread. The only cover was the 2015 finale in Cleveland. Only the Patriots have been favored like this on the road as often as Pittsburgh since 2007. Since 2007, the Steelers are 17-19 (.472) in road games against teams that finished the year with a winning record (Note: 2017 wins in Kansas City and Detroit are included for now). Only New England (16-17) has a better record in that time. Pittsburgh has continued this odd behavior all season. The Steelers, as a 10-point favorite, only won 21-18 in Cleveland in Week 1, thanks largely to a blocked punt return for a touchdown to start the game. Pittsburgh then lost as a 7-point favorite in Chicago with the now-benched Mike Glennon at quarterback for the Bears, but still found a way to knock off the Chiefs when Kansas City was 5-0 in Arrowhead in Week 6.

Sunday had all the makings of a classic Pittsburgh letdown game. Ben Roethlisberger had shredded the Colts in each of the last three seasons, with 13 touchdowns, zero interceptions, and zero sacks in those games. He didn't make it out of the first quarter without a pick and a sack this time. Le'Veon Bell was largely bottled up, Antonio Brown alligator-armed a deep ball and did little damage against a secondary that cut Vontae Davis this week. Jacoby Brissett beat the defense for two touchdown passes of 60-plus yards, and T.Y. Hilton wasn't even the target of either one.

Pittsburgh's Game Winning Chance fell as low as 23.1 percent in the second half when the Colts led 17-3. The offense finally started to show some life once JuJu Smith -Schuster got involved with a big catch and a touchdown, but Pittsburgh still trailed 17-9 in the fourth quarter. Some of the excitement over Brissett's play has been warranted, but he has also delivered some real fourth-quarter duds and back-breaking interceptions this season. However, his interception deep in his own end was not his fault this time. First, it wasn't a smart play call for third-and-8, but Jack Doyle botched the short catch and the ball went right to Ryan Shazier for a huge interception. The Steelers only had to drive 10 yards for a touchdown, and after an eternity of protection (against a three-man rush), Roethlisberger found Vance McDonald wide open for the score. The Steelers called a timeout before the two-point conversion, but were still out of sorts and took a delay of game penalty. That's pretty inexcusable in any situation, but especially before a game-tying play with 11:52 left. The extra space may have actually helped though, as Roethlisberger found the reactivated Martavis Bryant for the conversion to tie the game at 17.

As Colts fans have grown accustomed to this season, the offense went into the tank the rest of the way. Back-to-back sacks of Brissett forced a three-and-out. Chris Boswell was set up for a 37-yard field goal with 6:21 left, but the usually reliable kicker hit the right upright. A holding penalty sunk the Colts' next drive, and the Steelers had the ball back with 3:10 left at their own 15. Pittsburgh had gone 3-of-11 on third down to this point, but Eli Rogers converted a third-and-2 by an inch (if that) on the jet-sweep flip that's becoming more and more popular around the league. Roethlisberger left the next third down to less chance with a conversion to Bryant to get to the 50. He then pulled off the type of play he has made for years: move around and make a throw with someone holding onto his jersey for a big play.

Brown's 32-yard gain was all that was needed for Boswell to redeem himself with a 33-yard field goal to win the game with no time left. The Steelers completed the close 20-17 call, not much unlike the 23-20 comeback win in Indianapolis against 2011 when Curtis Painter was at quarterback for the Colts.

This was Roethlisberger's 30th fourth-quarter comeback win and 40th game-winning drive, putting him in more exclusive company in NFL history.

Tennessee's fourth win in a row was capped off by a third game-winning drive engineered by Marcus Mariota in the last month. This one was one of the most impressive of his brief career. While the 6-3 Titans still have a very unimpressive -8 scoring differential on the season, this was a game that Tennessee deserved to win at home. They kept the Bengals around with plenty of mistakes. While Mariota never throws interceptions in the red zone, he threw one in his own territory that set up the Bengals for a 3-yard touchdown drive in the second quarter. Ryan Succop missed a 48-yard field goal, ending his NFL-record streak of 56 consecutive makes inside of 50 yards, according to ESPN Stats & Info. Corey Davis lost control of the ball through the end zone for a turnover to start the fourth quarter when the Titans could have taken a commanding 24-13 lead.

It was the slew of mistakes you may expect from a young team that, frankly, has not played great football this year despite its winning record. Meanwhile, Cincinnati really struggled to sustain offense (1-of-10 on third downs) and missed an extra point that came back to haunt them in the end. However, for one brief moment, everything clicked for the Bengals. Andy Dalton was on the money to A.J. Green, who broke a tackle and was off to the races for a 70-yard touchdown to put the Bengals ahead 20-17 with 5:03 left.

Mariota had plenty of time to answer and plenty of time to throw thanks to good protection, making good decisions on a precise march down the field. While a lot of offenses would have ended up with a game-tying field goal and overtime, the Titans pushed for the win after getting a first-and-goal at the 7. They almost had to make due of the situation without Mariota, who took a hard slam to the ground on a scramble. The Titans used their second timeout and Mariota stayed in the game, so make of that what you will from a controversy standpoint, with the concussion protocol that doesn't seem to be enforced strongly in big moments. After two misfires, Mariota threw short of the goal line to DeMarco Murray, who broke Darqueze Dennard's tackle to break the plane with 36 seconds left.

Since the Bengals missed that extra point earlier, Dalton needed to drive 75 yards for a touchdown with two timeouts and 36 seconds left. Had it been a 24-21 deficit, then a field goal to force overtime would still have been with reason. The game's final drive was a mess, but at least the Bengals got to their own 45 for a shot at a Hail Mary. Dalton's pass was just way too short, falling incomplete around the 10-yard line.

Matthew Stafford is the first quarterback in NFL history to reach 30 game-winning drives before his 30th birthday. He had his first game-winning drive as a rookie in 2009 in an all-time classic shootout with the Browns and Brady Quinn. If Sunday's game with Cleveland is to be remembered at all, it could be for "that time when the Lions almost stopped the Browns from joining them as the only franchises in the 0-16 club."

Despite leads of 10-0 and later 24-17 in the third quarter, the Browns still managed to lose by two touchdowns after another terrible finish. Cleveland (0-9) doesn't have a fourth-quarter lead yet this season. With the game tied, Stafford didn't have a third-down conversion through three quarters, but hit three in a row to start the fourth quarter. The middle one required a broken tackle by Dwayne Washington to keep the drive alive. Tight end Eric Ebron lined up on safety Derrick Kindred out wide and beat him at the line for a 29-yard touchdown on a strong throw from Stafford with 10:46 left.

Cody Kessler was in the game for an injured DeShone Kizer. Kessler held the ball too long and an 11-yard sack on first down killed the drive for the Browns. On a second drive, Kessler badly overthrew a wide-open Bryce Treggs before taking a third-down sack against the blitz. Cleveland could have gotten the ball back for a third try, but an offsides penalty on Myles Garrett wiped out a third-down sack of Stafford. Instead, Golden Tate followed his blockers on a bubble screen for a 40-yard touchdown to put Detroit up 38-24 with 4:28 left. Kizer returned and converted three fourth downs in a row before tossing a first-down interception on a terrible fade from the 4-yard line with 1:19 left to ensure that the Browns wouldn't even beat the double-digit spread despite the early double-digit lead.

The game-winning drive came in Stafford's 121st game (including playoffs), which puts him three games behind Matt Ryan (118) for the fastest in NFL history to 30 game-winning drives. He is the 20th quarterback to hit 30 game-winning drives.

Fewest Games to Reach 30 Game-Winning Drives (Includes Playoffs)

Rk

Quarterback

Total GWD

Date of 30th GWD

Age

Season

Game No.

1

Matt Ryan

35

9/27/2015

30-133

8th

118

2

Matthew Stafford

30

11/12/2017

29-278

9th

121

3

Johnny Unitas

40

12/4/1966

33-211

11th

140

4

Jake Plummer

30

11/12/2006

31-328

10th

142

5

Dan Marino

51

9/27/1992

31-012

10th

146

6

Ben Roethlisberger

40

10/20/2013

31-232

10th

147

7

Tom Brady

51

10/17/2010

33-075

11th

152

8

Carson Palmer

36

12/10/2015

35-348

13th

159

9

Tony Romo

30

11/22/2015

35-215

13th

160

10

Eli Manning

39

12/22/2013

32-353

10th

163

11

Peyton Manning

56

11/18/2007

31-239

10th

167

12

Drew Brees

43

10/7/2012

33-266

12th

168

13

John Elway

46

12/12/1993

33-167

11th

170

14

Warren Moon

37

11/5/1995

38-352

12th

175

15

Drew Bledsoe

31

12/11/2005

33-300

13th

192

16

Kerry Collins

30

10/24/2010

37-298

16th

195

17

Joe Montana

33

1/8/1994

37-211

15th

198

18

Vinny Testaverde

33

11/25/2004

41-012

18th

218

19

Brett Favre

45

11/14/2004

35-035

14th

221

20

Fran Tarkenton

34

11/21/1976

36-292

16th

225

Clutch Encounters of the Losing Kind

Packers at Bears: Look, They're Throwing

The Packers had lost three games in a row, all by multiple scores, since Aaron Rodgers broke his collarbone in Minnesota in Week 6. Perhaps the most disappointing part of those performances was just how timid Mike McCarthy's offense was with Brett Hundley at quarterback. When McCarthy first had to use an inexperienced Matt Flynn (2010) or Scott Tolzien (2013) in place of Rodgers years ago, he still tried to run a normal passing offense that made use of Green Bay's deep receiving corps. With so many other Green Bay players injured right now, the wide receivers have at least stayed healthy, but we did not see much at all from the passing game in the last three weeks.

In Chicago, the Packers still largely dinked and dunked, but Hundley's pass protection and third-down efficiency were better. The Packers got back to scoring points, and Hundley even did several Rodgers-esque things in the fourth quarter. He scrambled for 17 yards and a first down on a third-and-2, and then rolled out to find Davante Adams on a back-shoulder throw for a 19-yard touchdown. That gave the Packers a 23-13 lead with 5:29 left, but the Bears still got a field goal to make it a one-score game again. On a big third-and-10 with 2:12 left, Hundley threw a perfect deep ball to Adams for 42 yards. The only complaint was that Adams was pushed out of bounds with 2:04 left, but the quarterback was perfect on the play.

That should have been a game-ending dagger. The only reason we had a fourth-quarter comeback opportunity here was because kicker Mason Crosbypulled a Gary Anderson, missing a 35-yard field goal with 1:03 left that would have given the Packers a 26-16 lead. Instead, Mitchell Trubisky had time to drive 75 yards for an improbable game-tying touchdown.

Oh yeah, Trubisky was also doing things differently this week. He passed for 297 yards after not surpassing more than 164 yards in his first four starts. It obviously wasn't a very productive scoring day, but it's not Trubisky's fault when John Fox challenged a spot out of bounds call that turned into a Benny Cunningham fumble through the end zone that cost the Bears points in the second quarter.

Trubisky had a shot at some glory, but he and his receivers didn't take advantage of solid pass protection against Green Bay's four-man rush. On second down, Trubisky missed an open Josh Bellamy (who caught a 46-yard touchdown earlier in the quarter) and Dontrelle Inman (who had a bad drop at midfield on third down). On fourth-and-ballgame, the pass rush finally got there, forcing Trubisky to dump off to Cunningham, who at least had the awareness to try a lateral to his center Hroniss Grasu. Grasu lunged forward for 2 yards to end the game.

Jets at Buccaneers: Revenge Is a Dish Best Served Clean-Shaven

Quarterbacks Ryan Fitzpatrick and Josh McCown, as well as tight end Austin Seferian-Jenkins, have all played for the Jets and Buccaneers in their careers, so this was the ultimate revenge game. In the end, it was more of a three-hour punishment for anyone expecting quality football. The Jets followed their impressive win over Buffalo with a road dud. McCown, who had been playing much better than this performance showed, took six sacks, and the one on the final play of the third quarter led to a quick three-and-out in the fourth quarter while the Jets only trailed 9-3.

Fitzpatrick, sans beard, managed to start a game for the 10th year in a row after Jameis Winston had to sit for the first time in his career with a shoulder injury. Fitzpatrick didn't have Mike Evans (suspended for last week's fighting ruckus), but he had Charles Sims picking up 21 yards on a simple toss play on third-and-15. That was the key play in a 15-play, 81-yard drive that Sims finished with a 6-yard touchdown catch to put Tampa Bay ahead 15-3. Fitzpatrick also led a 17-play drive for a field goal in the first quarter. He wasn't great, but some quality third-down conversions on long scoring drives were enough with Tampa Bay's maligned defense putting on its best showing since the Week 2 win over Chicago.

Robby Anderson caught a 38-yard touchdown for the Jets with 28 seconds left. That was the game's only play that gained 30-plus yards, but it was too little, too late with the score at 15-10. The Buccaneers recovered the onside kick to end the game. Fitzpatrick (12-40-1) and McCown (6-36) still own the two worst records among active quarterbacks at game-winning drive opportunities. How many more opportunities will they get to start NFL games at all? They both always seem to find a way.

Historic data on fourth-quarter comebacks and game-winning drives can be found at Pro Football Reference. Screen caps come from NFL Game Pass. Game Winning Chance (win probability) data is from EdjFootball.

Posted by: Scott Kacsmar on 14 Nov 2017

12 comments, Last at
17 Nov 2017, 10:39am by
nat

Comments

Per PFR, Russell Wilson has 23 4QC's in only 101 games. Putting him on pace to hit 30 in 132 games, shattering Johnny Unitas' record of 163. He also has 27 GWD's in those 101 games putting him on pace to hit 30 by his 112th game, which would eclipse Matt Ryan.

I also recently saw a stat put up by NFL Matchup that showed Wilson's passer rating in the 4th Qtr and OT this season was 135.2. Drew Brees was second with a rating of 108.2.

I remember as a kid when Johnny U got the ball, you knew if anyone could win this game, it was him. RW takes that to a whole new level. When Wilson gets the ball, you know he'll win it, you just wonder if he'll win it with enough time for the defense to blow the lead.

And yet no one thinks Russell Wilson for MVP, or even Offensive Player of the Year. For god's sake, why? He has no running game except him, the offensive line is bad -- improving, but bad -- and the defense is good but not great, and beset with injuries. Five years ago, those were reasons not to vote for Wilson. Now he's carrying the team to 6 - 3. I think it's time to at least mention Wilson for MVP.

Using FO's own signature passing DYAR stat for QB value, Wilson is on pace for 580 DYAR. He's currently ranked fifteenth at 326 after nine games.

If every other NFL QB dropped dead today, Wilson would still be in fifth place in passing DYAR at the end of the season at his current rate, more than 500 DYAR behind the leading (dead) QB.

To balance that, he's third in QB rushing DYAR, with 86 DYAR. That still ranks him fifteenth in pass+rush DYAR for QBs. If everyone else died, he would be on pace to move to third. Yep. He would still be less valuable by FO stats than two guys who were dead for the last 7 games of the season.

In 2015, Wilson had 147 DYAR through Week 10. He had 1,042 DYAR in the final seven games with 60.8% DVOA.

He can get better and the big games are going to be there for him to have a great case if he finishes strong. I think his case is pretty obvious. Seattle has no running game and he's leading the team in rushing. He still has a putrid OL. He has probably the single-best MVP performance of the season with the shootout win over Houston. Now the D has lost Sherman and Avril. This is Wilson's team more than ever.

So this is faith in Wilson playing his last seven games much, much better than he has been playing for the first nine. It could happen. He's done it before. But it ain't easy or likely, is it?

I guess that's what makes him a dark horse.

It's a germ for an article, BTW. What's the typical relationship between a QB's first half and second half DYAR, how much variation is there, and who are recent examples of extreme changes and of consistency. Wilson's 2015 would be an extreme case.

Derek Carr has 50% more DYAR, a much higher DVOA, his WR1 is so bad you wrote an article about it, and his defense is the worst in the league. So, based on FO's own measures, I would say unless you want to make a case for clutchness, he would be a dark horse, and Wlson is no more than a midnight Shetland Pony.
Given everything I see on sites where it is a two horse race between TRB and Wenz, I would say the dark horse is Goff.