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A press release dropped in my inbox this morning proclaiming that we are now 100 days out from the release of The Hunger Games: Catching Fire, which in turn led to the announcement of the film's World Premiere in London on November 11, 2013. There is little doubt that Catching Fire will be probably the biggest domestic grosser of the films yet to be released in 2013 when it debuts on November 22, 2013 around the world, with only The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug and Thor: The Dark World challenging it overseas. But if history is any indication, there is reason to believe that Catching Fire, which will have sequences shot on IMAX cameras, will gross notably less in America than The Hunger Games did last March. $410 million total and/or a $152m opening weekend are tough numbers to top for a second installment. After all, when your franchise debuts on top of the world, there is little place left to go other than down.

Up until the previous decade, it was conventional wisdom that sequels would gross less than the original films that spawned them. The simple math was that studios would spend a little bit more but make a little bit less (and Catching Fire is rumored to be twice the budget of the first film, which still makes it over/under $150 million). If you go back to the 1970's and 1980's, the vast majority of sequels actually grossed less domestically than their initial installments. The first Star Wars grossed $307m in its original theatrical release, while The Strikes Back earned $209m and Return of the Jedi earned $252m during their respective initial theatrical releases. The Godfather part II earned $47m in 1974 compared to the colossal $134m earning by the first film (The Godfather part III earned $66m in 1990). Back to the Future, Beverly Hills Cop, the first three Indiana Jones films, Batman, Planet of the Apes all had initial installments all vastly out-grossed their sequels (Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull out-grossed Raiders of the Lost Ark thanks to 26 years of inflation). Of the 7 theatrical Police Academy films, the first entry is still by far the highest grossing installment with $81m.

There were a few exceptions, especially when it comes to horror and comedy. A Nightmare On Elm Street 3: The Dream Warriors ($44m) and A Nightmare On Elm Street 4: The Dream Master ($49m) both vastly out-grossed A Nightmare On Elm Street ($25m), Freddy's Revenge ($29m), The Dream Child ($22m), Freddy's Dead ($34m), and Wes Craven's New Nightmare ($18m... shame on all of you!). The Saw series peaked at Saw III ($81m) while the Naked Gun, American Pie, and Harold and Kumar franchises peaked at part II. But even to this day, the original Friday the 13th, the first Halloween, the first Paranormal Activity, and the first Scream all earned more than their respective sequels. Die Hard was the lowest-grossing film of the franchise until this year's Live Free Or Die Hard, Rocky IV was the biggest Rocky film, the first Lethal Weapon and the initial Dirty Harry are the lowest-grossing entries of their respective franchises. The general rule is that you opened a bit bigger, but ended up a bit smaller.

Up until around 2003, sequels generally performed less like Rocky IV and more like Gremlins 2 ($41m vs. $153m), Ghostbusters II ($109m vs. $234m), and the Star Wars prequels (The Phantom Menace is still tops at $434m back in 1999). As the 2000's descended, we started seeing that trend where a major sequel capitalized on the goodwill of the original and exploded out of the gate. Actually, Austin Powers: The Spy Who Shagged Me was the first example back in 1999, surpassing the original film's $53m gross in its opening weekend. After which we saw a handful of franchises actually grow with each installment, such as X-Men ($157m, $215m, $234m), the Bourne series ($121m, $176, $227m), and the Lord of the Rings trilogy ($315m, $342m, $377m). We had massive debut weekends for anticipated sequels like The Mummy Returns, Rush Hour The Matrix Reloaded, Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest, The Dark Knight, and Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen, which helped propel them past their predecessors (those franchises all peaked at part II). The Twilight Saga started with the $192 million gross for Twilight and then spent the next four films hovering over/under $300m.

But even during these sequel-happy times, only the eighth and final Harry Potter film out-grossed the initial installment ($381m vs. $317m), Iron Man 2 still grossed slightly less than Iron Man with a solid chunk of Iron Man 3's domestic bump coming from 3D-inflated prices, while a number of animated sequels (Cars 2, Kung Fu Panda 2, etc.) failed to approach their originals' domestic totals. Spider-Man debuted with a scorching $403 million domestic gross, only to "fall" to $373m for Spider-Man 2 and $336m for Spider-Man 3. Like The Hunger Games, Sam Raimi's Spider-Man franchise started at pretty much the ceiling, so it had nowhere to go but down. Thor: The Dark World will almost certainly make more than the $181 million earned by Thor back in 2011, but that's partially because it actually has room to grow and build. The Hunger Games may well have peaked the first time out, which isn't exactly a bad thing when you crossed $400 million domestic the first time out.

The point of this stroll down franchise box office memory lane is a kind of preemptive explanation. I don't want to read a bunch of "Hunger Games 2 Flops!" or "Why didn't Catching Fire Top Hunger Games?" hit pieces this November and December when the film merely makes $325-$350 million domestic. We shouldn't necessarily expect The Hunger Games: Catching Fire to top the $410m domestic figure of The Hunger Games. When you start near the very top of what amounts to a box office ceiling, especially after debuting to one of the biggest opening weekends on record ($152m, third-biggest at the time but now sixth-best), there is every reason to assume that you've peaked the first time and your entrenched fan base is already set for the remainder of the series. The world may be watching, but it may be the same general amount of people who watched last time. In terms of topping the last film's domestic gross (international is an open question), the odds are not quite in its favor.