Last year, British Prime Minister Theresa May declared that “no deal is better than a bad deal,” when it comes to Brexit. As Tuesday’s vote on her unpopular withdrawal deal approaches, however, members of her Cabinet are singing another, more panicky tune. “In recent weeks, confidence from investors has been shaken. Debates in Parliament are monitored closely, and with mounting alarm, in boardrooms around the world,” wrote Business Secretary Greg Clark in an op-ed for Politico. “We can’t go on like this,” he pleaded. “January 2019 must be the month in which Parliament—for so long a source of strength for our international reputation—resolves how we will act together as a nation and give confidence to business.” An anonymous government insider, considering the likelihood that the vote goes down in flames, put it more bluntly : “We’re going to get smashed.”

Parliament is addressing the political crisis with a mounting sense of urgency. On Tuesday, lawmakers voted to curb the government’s financial powers in the case of a no-deal Brexit, and on Wednesday they passed an amendment by Tory backbencher__Dominic Grieve__ forcing May to present an amendable plan B to Parliament if her current proposal fails as anticipated. “I realize there are a few of my colleagues who believe that if the government’s deal is rejected we should simply do nothing and leave the E.U. on March 29 with no deal at all and with all, to my mind, the calamitous consequences that would follow on from it,” Grieve explained . “I disagree with that, and so I think do the vast majority of members of Parliament. The only way we can move forward if the government’s deal is not acceptable to Parliament is for Parliament to engage with government and find a solution, which is what I am trying to do.”

There are a couple problems with Grieve’s amendment. For one, M.P.s are not so united in their desired alternative, be it a general election, a people’s vote, or a different form of deal. If May loses, and lawmakers are handed more power, it’s hard (though not impossible) to imagine they will be imbued with the spirit of compromise that has been absent from the Brexit process for years. Second, Downing Street has announced that, under its understanding of the Grieve amendment, a plan B debate would be just 90 minutes long, and just one amendment would be permitted. “Ninety minutes is not enough and entirely consistent with this government’s approach of dodging scrutiny by trying to deny M.P.s debating time and votes,” a Labour source complained to The Guardian. (Just hours later, Tory Chief Whip Julian Smith contradicted Downing Street and said “no decision” had been reached on the format of the debate.)
May’s political enemies, meanwhile, see opportunity in the chaos. Confident that the prime minister is headed for defeat on Tuesday, Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn is demanding another general election, rather than succumb to growing calls on the left for a second referendum. “If you are so confident in your deal, call that election, and let the people decide,” he said to May in a speech Thursday, arguing that a new government would have a fresh mandate to broker a superior deal with the E.U. Asked whether he would move to trigger an election if May loses the vote, Corbyn said Labour would “table a motion of no confidence in the government at the moment we judge it to have the best chance of success.” If a majority of M.P.s support a no-confidence motion, the government has 14 days to try to win another confidence vote. If it fails, a general election will take place. “Clearly, Labour does not have enough M.P.s in Parliament to win a confidence vote on its own. So members across the House should vote with us to break the deadlock,” Corbyn said.
Beyond the hostilities, theatrics, and fresh talk of delaying Brexit, there are some rumblings of cross-party collaboration. During Wednesday’s Brexit debate, the prominent Conservative Oliver Letwin proposed a bipartisan agreement on a customs union and single-market settlement to Shadow Brexit Secretary Keir Starmer. “Obviously, at some stage, if we are to leave other than without a deal there has to be a consensus in this House for something,” Starmer replied. May, for her part, is sidestepping opposition within her own ranks by making entreaties to Labour. The Mirror reports that she has opened talks with Labour M.P.s in Leave seats to secure their support for her deal in return for backing an amendment that would defend existing E.U. protections of workers rights.
Building pressure on Whitehall are a cavalcade of reports underscoring Britain’s bleak without a deal. The Confederation of British Industry predicted that a no-deal outcome would shrink G.D.P. by up to 8 percent , and retailers have been advised to bring in additional security amid fears there could be “crowd control” concerns at shops because of possible food shortages.
These worst case scenarios, which now look increasingly likely, are a far cry from the rosy picture Brexit advocates originally painted. And yet, some Leavers remain committed to delivering on a promise that seems even more impossible today than it was on June 23, 2016. Speaking on the radio Friday, Foreign Secretary Jeremy Hunt appeared less concerned about the prospect of a no-deal than the possibility of not leaving the E.U. at all. “If this deal is rejected, ultimately what we may end up with is not a different type of Brexit, but Brexit paralysis. And Brexit paralysis ultimately could lead to no Brexit,” he said. “If we were, as a political class, not to deliver Brexit that would be a fundamental breach of trust between the people and the politicians and I think that would be something that we would regret for many, many generations.”

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