Of course, there is no guarantee that Pittsburgh would have beaten New England. New England likely would have been fairly clear favorites in that game. But even if Pittsburgh would have had a 35% chance of knocking off the Pats, that is 35% more of a shot than Denver has.

Denver did the same thing this year that Seattle did last season. They rode a tremendous homefield advantage and a boatload of playoff emotions to a win over a team clearly superior to them. Such is life in the NFL when a 12-4 team and a legitimate Super Bowl contender has to travel across the country to play a team that was an onside kick recovery and boneheaded decision by Marion Barber away from being 6-10.

Then the Cleat of Reality set in for the Seahawks. They found themselves having to travel on the road to play a very good team in Chicago in a hostile playoff environment. Those were some uncomfortable, unfamiliar waters for a team that shouldn’t really have been in the playoffs to begin with. The Seahawks found themselves down 35-10 against the Bears before scoring 14 meaningless points late in the 4th quarter.

Expect the Cleat to visit Tebowville this weekend as the Broncos have to go play Bill Belichick and Tom Brady in their house. This isn’t Denver anymore. This isn’t Wild Card Weekend any longer.

The 8-8 Broncos have go to on the road and play the most successful sports franchise of the last decade.

The Denver Broncos are not going to beat New England. Period.

When the Ravens beat Houston by 14 on Sunday, the stage will be set for Ray Lewis and Joe Flacco vs the two B’s in New England.

Had the Steelers been healthy and beaten Denver I would have given them a 50-50 chance of beating New England. However the Steelers were completely devestated by injuries and in my opinion had no chance of beating New England with their depleated team. If Denver has a 10% chance of beating New England the Steelers chances would have been in single digits. Hell if Tebow passed for 316 yards against the Steelers what do you think Brady would gave done.

(Peter: If they would have beaten Denver? They were one play away from beating Denver. But I hear you…The current version of the Pitt team is not really the team that went 12-4. But the Broncos aren’t even a good team. They are average. They have no shot to win in NE. No shot. Pitt would have had a shot…at least IMO.)

*That 2009 season, the Ravens lost 5 games on the road but then won in Foxborough…what makes this year any different? You know the Ravens on the road in the playoffs (at Cincy was a playoff game this year) thay play at a different level.
*The Ravens beat New England in 2010, for the record.
*If the Ravens can’t get passed New England, then they don’t deserve to go to Indy.
*Denver has a chance to beat NE just as Pittsburgh did, equal chance. See: NY Jets last year …what did NE do to them in the reg. season?

(Peter: Thanks for reading and commenting. All great points. I said in my piece that the Ravens certainly could go to NE and beat them. In fact, I’d give them maybe a 40% chance of doing so. That’s pretty good for a road playoff team. My main point is that I would have given the Ravens a 70% chance of beating Pitt at home in AFC Championship, and I personally don’t see Denver going into NE and winning. They’ll lose by 3 TD’s….watch.)

“The Denver Broncos are not going to beat New England. Period.”
and the Denver Broncos wont beat the Steelers . Period.
(not with their number one Defense)
Let’s just wait and see if Belichick’s house burns down and he misses the game , or brady breaks a leg stepping on a banana peel , or welker gets stuck in an elevator just before the game , I wouldn’t be so quick to dismiss the Broncos just yet. Dan

So far, there has been a definite pattern in the NFL playoffs in that the home team has won every game. Should this pattern continue it will be the New England Patriots vs. the Green Bay Packers in the Super Bowl. That is not to say this pattern will continue, but the fact of the matter is that the best team overall does not necssarily win, but the team that is the healthiest or the team that is playing the best at this juncture will most likely win. As for the Ravens percieved inability to win on the Road, let’s not forget that they achieved a 4-4 split, beating some very good football teams in the process. If you make hay at home and split on the road, you are definitely a championship contender.

How do you beat a supposedly better team? You stop what they do best; sometimes by turnovers, and other times by crucial stops. But at least 75% of it is always defense. It also could be unleashing an offense that the other team is not prepared for; but in any case, you have to actually “beat” the other team. You can not rely on ‘what got you this far’ to beat them. There is no secret in beating New England. You have to stop or at least put “doubt” in Tom Brady. He will come “apart” like Aaron Rodgers did if the Ravens accomplish the above.

This has been proved over and over in football. You have to ‘beat’ the other team and stop what they do best.
Alabama vs. LSU. Alabama defense stopped the powerful LSU offense;game over! 1969 Jets way back in the day ‘beat’ the Colts. The Colts relying on what had ‘got them that far’ were not ready to stop Namath. They were not prepared to stop the Jet’s running. They were not prepared for any….. misfortunes. It came upon them like a dark cloud. All because the Jets were ‘prepared’ to beat the Colts.