JACKSON—A newly released poll conducted by Millsaps College and Chism Strategies reveals a highly competitive mayoral race. Jackson voters head to the polls on Tuesday, May 2 for the Democratic primary election to determine which of the leading candidates advances to the runoff in two weeks.

The poll, conducted April 26-­‐April 27, indicates that attorney Chokwe A. Lumumba leads with 29% of the vote as Supervisor Robert Graham and Senator John Horhn and are currently at 20% and 19%, respectively. Incumbent Mayor Tony Yarber presently sits at 7%, while the remaining five candidates combine for 8%. Another 17% of likely Democratic primary election voters remain undecided.

“Jackson voters are clearly conflicted about which candidate is the best possible option for leading the city forward,” said Dr. Nathan R. Shrader, assistant professor of political science and director of American Studies at Millsaps College. “The field of candidates is quite large and several appear to be breaking away from the pack. This has certainly turned into a real horserace.”

The Millsaps College-­‐Chism Strategies Survey also examined whether undecided voters are leaning towards one of the candidates, which issues are most likely to influence the way voters make up their minds in the closing days of the campaign, and trial match-­‐ups for the likely May 16 run-­‐off primary election between the race’s three front-­‐runners: Lumumba, Horhn, and Graham.

Note: Dr. Shrader is available to discuss these findings with members of the news media leading up to Tuesday’s Primary Election. He may be contacted at shradnr@millsaps.edu or 724-­‐433-­‐2168.

Kingfish note: The poll is posted below. The actual poll results are on the third page:

What is interesting is that Lumumba, Graham, Horhn, and Yarber have each raised at least $100,000 for their campaigns. There is usually one candidate who dominates the race for dollars but that has not happened in 2017. The undecided number is sizeable but not as large as it was at this point a few years ago when it was nearly 30% a few days before the election. The order of the candidates lines up with other polls. Graham probably has a better get out the vote machine from years practicing county politics but Horhn has relied on an aggressive media campaign.

Voters are not happy with the current state of affairs in Jackson. Rightly or wrongly, they are not lining up for the incumbent just as they didn't line up for Harvey in 2013. This last weekend should be fun to watch. Stay tuned. The crosstabs are included in the poll posted below.

62 comments:

Anonymous
said...

Chism was"dead-on" a few years ago. This poll is wrong or, if not wrong, Jackson is sunk totally.

As for me, I will vote with the police and fire departments. They are not going for any of the top three on this poll. Neither are most of the employees of the City. Think these fine people might know anything? They have lived through it all and don't choose the top three in this poll.

I just don't trust it even with Milsaps on the letterhead. Trump proved people no longer tell the truth to strangers regarding their votes. I think it is someone's campaign strategy.

How many Council Wards a candidate leads is meaningless. Dog whistling Wards 1 and 7 is offensive and divisive though I highly doubt our resident race hustlers, er, healers will "call out" Chism for doing so.

It's not that he's worth a damn. It's that he spews that "get even" rhetoric that so many poor black people eat up. Hell, his rally in NYC was called, "The Big Payback". It's not even implied - it's straight up "make Whitey pay!"

There are people who believe that Chokwe will be able to take money from rich people and dole it out to them. Seriously. That can't happen, but they believe and Chokwe certainly isn't trying to dissuade them of that notion.

There are too many people who think Chokwe means mo' money for them. He'll win and he'll make Yarber look like Rudy Giuliani when he's done. After four years of letting the streets turn to rubble and bi-monthly boil water notices and greater budget deficits with no goodies (except a multi-million dollar Chokwe Lumumba, Sr. Memorial and Social Justice Center), they'll abandon him, but Jackson will be so deep in the hole it will have to be razed.

Thank GOD I moved out of Jackson 1 year ago.Confusious said:There's an old Chinese story where this tiger went into this village & ate several people. A new reporter ask a women why she didn't move? She said the government wasn't that bad.

There are people who believe that Chokwe will be able to take money from rich people and dole it out to them. Seriously. That can't happen, but they believe and Chokwe certainly isn't trying to dissuade them of that notion.

On one of Antar's videos he's proposing taking city tax dollars to fund an 'incubator' and then invest the incubator dollars in co-ops. No joke.

Don't think it can't happen. Chokwe Sr. was playing fast and loose with the budget before he passed. Akuno was on the city payroll specifically to redistribute Jackson tax dollars to this very sort of co-op economic model.

Jr. still has to win a runoff, folks. Don't get your panties in a wad yet, or if you are the Mayor of neighboring Rankin County town, don't start your party yet.

Once the second to lose plus candidates (3rd thru 5th) are out, their supporters will have to go somewhere, and most are not the 30 minus crowd that are Junior's rah-rah crowd. And not sure that the Baltimore supporters will be able to stay an extra two weeks, but we'll see if they continue to support a capitalist society by having to rent a room and a car from a for profit entity for that long.

Lumumba is going to bankrupt the city with that stupid 60% minority participation of city contracts crap. The city can't provide the most basic functions of a city by filling potholes, clearing clogged storm drains or repairing water leaks, but I guess he lives in utopia where giving somebody something for nothing doesn't cost the city more money by higher priced contracts.

This is actually very good news for Jackson, Lumumba will bring programs to the city that will ensure it's residents ability to compete with the surrounding bedroom communities and bring it back to its former glory!

Dilbert has been trying to implement early voting, but thus far the smarter heads have prevailed. MS does not have early voting, despite what Donner and her endorsed candidate, Lumumba, are telling their voters. But just like Lumumba doesn't bother to follow any of the state's laws requiring timely filing of finance reports, no reason to expect him to pay attention to any of these other 'white folks' laws.

Lumumba may be ahead in mutable polls but the fact that he cant get above 30% is trouble for him.

He seems like a love him or hate him kinda guy. He is either your first choice or last choice. I doubt any of the people who dont make the run off will endorse him although they may endorse anyone else. He got first in the primary last time around but lost in runoff. Just like JLee. Graham and Horhn have to like what they see. If they can make it then more money rolls in to them and they can rally the other 70%.

Horhn is the Jeff Good and white establishment/Fondren candidate and Graham is an Uncle Tom. Yarber is toast and Lumumba is saying all the right things. It's Payback Time. Kush is coming to Jacktown. Anybody want to buy a house in Northeast Jacktown? Mine is for sale...cheap. And my business is also leaving.

Yarber is the worst mayor ever. Just simply didn't have the mental capacity for the job (can't understand basic mortgage language), is scarcely paranoid (rightfully when juggling multiple hoes at one time), and is a hypocritical preacher. Bad combination...no matter what color you are. And, he is just now figuring out that he needs a political advisor to tell him how to manage a city. WoW! HE COULDNT UNDERSTAND SIMPLE ARM MORTGAGE Terms, or he played the "I didn't understand" card, which is even worse. Can we possibly write legislature that mayor must have a business management masters degree to run for office??

713 do share with us about your business- hard to believe somebody who has been here any length of time would decide to leave now. Nothing has even happened. "Kush" was already here for 8 months. Let's be honest you don't own a house here and certainly not a business worth anything.

Jackson political races are won by who has the ground game. LaLaLaBamba has THE ground game. It was set up by his father decades ago. If he wins it will show that the Christian vote, which goes through the pastors of the many churches in the area, are losing their political clout. Unless the losers ban together, it's over.

I just did a quick study of The Universal Declaration of Human Rights on the U.N. website. Nowhere in that declaration is a nod to "get back" at one race or another. The recurring word is EVERYONE. Hakuna Matata!

No surprise. The majority of voters in Jackson are idiots. If you can keep the racial chip on your shoulder longer, keep the Uncle Sugar cash rolling into your bank and spit in the eye of the hard-working people who pay your way then why not? If it weren't for the fact that I have to take care of elders in my family I'd leave this place and never come back. The sullen behavior, the attitude, the theft of tax dollars by faking need for SNAP, SSI, etc. The use of handicap parking by able-bodied people. The worst drivers in America. The baby machines and runaway Dads. So why not a first-class idiot like Lumumba? Drive the infrastructure down further and hire more incompetent leaders. It's Beany Tubson's State anyway.

7:13-- You ain't seen nothing yet. 60% minority participation contracts are racist and new unqualified contractors will be lining up to pad their wallets. Ldet's not even talk about consultants and "coaches." Get real. And FYI I do live in Jackson. I am a native and graduated from Provine when the neighborhood around it was safe and family oriented. I worked at Kroger as a bag boy in Westland Plaza during high school and have lived in three houses in Jackson over the years. My business of 40+ years is in the High Street area and I have been burglarized twice in the last year and had my car stolen in front of my business. My clients have mostly moved to Rankin County. I have given it my all and am tired of fighting it. There's more to life than trying to fix a system that doesn't want to be fixed. Good luck in Kush land.

"The majority of voters in Jackson are idiots. If you can keep the racial chip on your shoulder longer, keep the Uncle Sugar cash rolling into your bank and spit in the eye of the hard-working people who pay your way then why not?"

But yet people want to know WHY there's a chip on the shoulder? Some of you dolts answer your own questions and ignore the garbage coming out of your own mouth.

10:33 Hohrn os the swamp...career politician. Long on talk short on results. And anti law enforcement, yeah thats good for jackson. Chokwe is a racist separatists. Yarber would be more suited running a brothel. Graham is living off of his TV time when he was JPD spokesman. Mask cantget a vote because she's white....

People who will re-elect a complete clown like Stokes are more about "getting back" than about bringing the city up. They'd rather see a city run by the likes of Stokes and Lumumba than by the most capable white man.

There's a HUGE amount of racism and racial animus that is fueling Lumumba, and anyone who argues otherwise is a liar or a fool.

Don't know 'bout y'all, but I have not forgotten Chokwe, Sr.'s Funeral. Afrocentric to the max. Didn't even know I was in America. No matter the intentions, my allegiance is to the good 'ol USA. Just not ready for a Kush designed by Malcom X.

Looking through the telescope, neither Horhn or Graham have sterling reputations -- quite the opposit, despite how like-able they are. Neither, despite so-called plans, will be able to handle the city departments. Graham wants to bring back Robert Johnson??? How old is he? Wasn't he the Ditto Chief from up north? Horhn is going to take advise from ??? Last night told us nothing.]

Crudup, Jr. came across best in many ways. None of the front runners in the crazy poll have any experience with city government. This is a disaster in the making.

The funeral for the program, organized by his two children, had Louis Farrakhan providing the eulogy. I understand they couldn't work out to pay for farakhans travel, so he bailed. Has anybody asked Antar if he still refuses to say the pledge allegiance. In 2013, His daddy came in late to his own swearing in, right after the singing of the star spangled banner and the recitation of the pledge allegiance.

Cronies? Doesn't every mayor have these? Just wait until one of the top three listed above get in. You will think Yarber's "cronies" were mild.

Adultery? Are you certain? Can you throw the first stone. Can any of the other leading candidates?

All in all, the Yarber Administration took over when the budget was completely spent by Chokwe's father with five months to go, an administration full of people who knew nothing about city government. Chokwe, Sr. at least had been in city government prior to becoming mayor. Yarber was able to navigate the personel storm and the budget storm. He inherited the Siemen Disaster and has been able to restore at least some sanity to water billing even though many are not receiving bills yet. Of course, these sterling citizens know they are ripping off the city but how many have come forward?

Crime is decreasing and has done so since Yarber took office. Economic development is happening and building permits have continued fairly good. Working with the 1% commission is not very productive but it is what it is. The Capitol Developmemt District is a reality and this type of funding in various forms has been diligently sought after for probably two decades. The policemen and other first responders are not grumbling like in years past.

So, all in all, the past 3 years have not been as awful as many want to portray. The streets have caused Yarber more harm than the law suits. Too bad the citizens don't recognize how having so many mayors in the last few years have harmed the city. They just want to add one more who won't last longer than 4 years.

It is very HILARIOUS AND OBVIOUS those who are working for the current mayor or attend his church in these responses. CHURCH MEMBERS: Consider other leadership...you only have one soul...you're not a cat! CURRENT MAYOR STAFF WHO ARE OBVIOUSLY STILL DEFENDING HIS FOOLISHNESS TO HOLD ON TO YOUR JOBS: LOG OFF...REBOOT YOUR COMPUTERS... AND GO TO WWW.MDES.GOV TO SEEK FURTHER EMPLOYMENT. Your time will be MUCH BETTER SPENT THERE!!! BUDGET WHEN HE CAME IN: Over 17 million and depleted to less than half of that AFTER he came in...TOP STAFFERS: Inexperienced top heavy people who had less to NO education than most of the regular staff who had no clue of governance...YOUR MAYOR: Should have been ACCOUNTABLE and not play the victim which showed HYPOCRISY and not TRANSPARENCY! Those that defend him must be just like him so it is with the GREATEST HOPE that one of the top three COMPLETELY CLEANS HOUSE!

4:05 AM, this is not a city employee. Donna and now the Clarion-Ledger have both endorsed Lumumba. Guess you will get your wish that somebody come into City Hall and clean house because Lumumba will bring his own people; does not matter if they are qualified. All that matters is that they support him and his vision (actually Malcom X's vision). The Clarion-Ledger thinks he will have a benefit by being the son of former Mayor. What a joke because it just does not work that way. And if it did, the city would run out of money.

Yarber is the only one running who can beat Lumumba. A 62 year old Horhn, for all his support, still has baggage and does not possess necessary energy to combat the quick and wiley Lumumba.

@ 10:32 the last thing that needs to be discussed about ANYBODY running for office is baggage! It is the things one says in the posts that are a dead giveaway that you are either a top city employee,a devout church member or somebody yarber is sleeping with. Since no one knows what else is to come in the next few weeks, silence is the best idea to not appear as a supporter of foolishness, one who completely lacks knowledge or one who is just trying to keep their job.

11:29 - yes, Lumumba Sr. did bring in an administration of incompetents; but Yarber kept some of the worst and did nothing but add to it; K Powell, M Crisler, the whole Anderson family, etc. etc. (realize I probably named you in that sentence, but hey, WTH)

Navigate the personnel storm? How. By screwing who he wanted when he wanted, except when it stopped he fired them? Hell of a way to navigate. And the budget storm navigation produced even worse results. Easy to make the claim, but you provide nothing to back it up except for a broke ass city, bond rating gone to the sh****er, the water fund depleted, and a bloated bureaucracy that stays in place.

Inherited the Seimen disaster? I believe he not only voted for it as a Councilman, but was a serious promoter of the contract.

But the biggest joke of your comment was that he had some sanity to the water billing system. Get serious. Not only are people still not getting billed due to their 'straight piping' stealing, but many others are getting outlandish bills with no basis. And yes, they have been told about it by these customers - over, and over, and over, but yet they do nothing about it. The system is broke because they don't collect the bills and Yarber can't even put someone in place to send out and collect the bills. If he had navigated the personnel system, why is that department still a shambles.

Please point me to this economic development that is increasing. Major employers are moving out; a few fast food joints have moved into the Hwy 18 area. Trade a Taco Bell for a Puckett; trade a hair salon supply shop for a major car dealership.

And your crowing jewel - the Capital District. Yes, it has been a push for several years and Yarber did his best job of killing it last year. Finally passed over despite his "help" this year but the funding won't be seen for three more years. And because of Yarber's mismanagement of the city's money, making sure that the contract evaluation score sheets are "adjusted" to make sure his contributors get the contracts with adequate set-asides to provide him his share the legislature made sure that the city won't touch that money. Hell of a recommendation for his claim to continue the process.

Give me anybody else - this joker is a joke. Let him go back to his church/strip club and see if he can maintain his separate residence downtown.

9:42 - Thanks for the compliment. Afraid that much of the electorate doesn't like hearing truth and facts. Been that route, enjoyed it and while I have the T-shirt(s) -actually several left over in fact - that's about all I have other than a few scars.

Who is the Hottest Reporter in Jackson?

Trollfest '09

Trollfest '07 was such a success that Jackson Jambalaya will once again host Trollfest '09. Catch this great event which will leave NE Jackson & Fondren in flames. Othor Cain and his band, The Black Power Structure headline the night while Sonjay Poontang returns for an encore performance. Former Frank Melton bodyguard Marcus Wright makes his premier appearance at Trollfest singing "I'm a Sweet Transvestite" from "The Rocky Horror Picture Show." Kamikaze will sing his new hit, “How I sold out to da Man.” Robbie Bell again performs: “Mamas, don't let your babies grow up to be Bells” and “Any friend of Ed Peters is a friend of mine”. After the show, Ms. Bell will autograph copies of her mug shot photos. In a salute to “Dancing with the Stars”, Ms. Bell and Hinds County District Attorney Robert Smith will dance the Wango Tango.

Wrestling returns, except this time it will be a Battle Royal with Othor Cain, Ben Allen, Kim Wade, Haley Fisackerly, Alan Lange, and “Big Cat” Donna Ladd all in the ring at the same time. The Battle Royal will be in a steel cage, no time limit, no referee, and the losers must leave town. Marshand Crisler will be the honorary referee (as it gives him a title without actually having to do anything). Meet KIM Waaaaaade at the Entergy Tent. For five pesos, Kim will sell you a chance to win a deed to a crack house on Ridgeway Street stuffed in the Howard Industries pinata. Don't worry if the pinata is beaten to shreds, as Mr. Wade has Jose, Emmanuel, and Carlos, all illegal immigrants, available as replacements for the it. Upon leaving the Entergy tent, fig leaves will be available in case Entergy literally takes everything you have as part of its Trollfest ticket price adjustment charge.

Donna Ladd of The Jackson Free Press will give several classes on learning how to write. Smearing, writing without factchecking, and reporting only one side of a story will be covered. A donation to pay their taxes will be accepted and she will be signing copies of their former federal tax liens. Ms. Ladd will give a dramatic reading of her two award-winning essays (They received The Jackson Free Press "Best Of" awards.) "Why everything is always about me" and "Why I cover murders better than anyone else in Jackson".

In the spirit of helping those who are less fortunate, Trollfest '09 adopts a cause for which a portion of the proceeds and donations will be donated: Keeping Frank Melton in his home. The “Keep Frank Melton From Being Homeless” booth will sell chances for five dollars to pin the tail on the jackass. John Reeves has graciously volunteered to be the jackass for this honorable excursion into saving Frank's ass. What's an ass between two friends after all? If Mr. Reeves is unable to um, perform, Speaker Billy McCoy has also volunteered as when the word “jackass” was mentioned he immediately ran as fast as he could to sign up. In order to help clean up the legal profession, Adam Kilgore of the Mississippi Bar will be giving away free, round-trip plane tickets to the North Pole where they keep their bar complaint forms (which are NOT available online). If you don't want to go to the North Pole, you can enjoy Brant Brantley's (of the Mississippi Commission on Judicial Performance) free guided tours of the quicksand field over by High Street where all complaints against judges disappear. If for some reason you are unable to control yourself, never fear; Judge Houston Patton will operate his jail where no lawyers are needed or allowed as you just sit there for minutes... hours.... months...years until he decides he is tired of you sitting in his jail. Do not think Judge Patton is a bad judge however as he plans to serve free Mad Dog 20/20 to all inmates.

Trollfest '09 is a pet-friendly event as well. Feel free to bring your dog with you and do not worry if your pet gets hungry, as employees of the Jackson Zoo will be on hand to provide some of their animals as food when it gets to be feeding time for your little loved one.

Relax at the Fox News Tent. Since there are only three blonde reporters in Jackson (being blonde is a requirement for working at Fox News), Megan and Kathryn from WAPT and Wendy from WLBT will be on loan to Fox. To gain admittance to the VIP section, bring either your Republican Party ID card or a Rebel Flag. Bringing both and a torn-up Obama yard sign will entitle you to free drinks served by Megan, Wendy, and Kathryn. Get your tickets now. Since this is an event for trolls, no ID is required. Just bring the hate. Bring the family, Trollfest '09 is for EVERYONE!!!

This is definitely a Beaver production.Note: Security provided by INS.

Trollfest '07

Jackson Jambalaya is the home of Trollfest '07. Catch this great event which promises to leave NE Jackson & Fondren in flames. Sonjay Poontang and his band headline the night with a special steel cage, no time limit "loser must leave town" bout between Alan Lange and "Big Cat"Donna Ladd following afterwards. Kamikaze will perform his new song F*** Bush, he's still a _____. Did I mention there was no referee? Dr. Heddy Matthias and Lori Gregory will face off in the undercard dueling with dangling participles and other um, devices. Robbie Bell will perform Her two latest songs: My Best Friends are in the Media and Mama's, Don't Let Your Babies Grow up to be George Bell. Sid Salter of The Clarion-Ledger will host "Pin the Tail on the Trial Lawyer", sponsored by State Farm.

There will be a hugging booth where in exchange for your young son, Frank Melton will give you a loooong hug. Trollfest will have a dunking booth where Muhammed the terrorist will curse you to Allah as you try to hit a target that will drop him into a vat of pig grease. However, in the true spirit of Separate But Equal, Don Imus and someone from NE Jackson will also sit in the dunking booth for an equal amount of time. Tom Head will give a reading for two hours on why he can't figure out who the hell he is. Cliff Cargill will give lessons with his .80 caliber desert eagle, using Frank Melton photos as targets. Tackleberry will be on hand for an autograph session. KIM Waaaaaade will be passing out free titles and deeds to crackhouses formerly owned by The Wood Street Players.

If you get tired come relax at the Fox News Tent. To gain admittance to the VIP section, bring either your Republican Party ID card or a Rebel Flag. Bringing both will entitle you to free drinks.Get your tickets now. Since this is an event for trolls, no ID is required, just bring the hate. Bring the family, Trollfest '07 is for EVERYONE!!!