The Indian Ocean region: security, stability and sustainability in the 21st century

This report calls for an inclusive approach to a region which is now home to the world’s most important and sensitive trade routes.

Approaches that seek to exclude China are unlikely to guarantee long-term regional stability, according to the report, commissioned by the Australia India Institute based at the University of Melbourne. At the same time, the report notes, China among others is using foreign aid as a ‘weapon of influence’ in the region. It describes the northwest Indian Ocean as ‘potentially one of the most insecure areas on earth’. Current security arrangements are seen as ‘fragile’ and ‘incomplete’.

The report calls for an inclusive approach to a region which is now home to the world’s most important and sensitive trade routes. It warns that a host of threats, from piracy to failed states and sea-level rise require more active engagement by both great powers and local Indo-Pacific nations.

The task force which produced the report included former Australian Secretary of Defence Ric Smith, and was edited by one of Australia’s leading experts on the Indian Ocean, Dr Dennis Rumley.

The report argues that with China and Japan relying heavily on oil imports shipped via the Indian Ocean, there is a compelling need for better security structures. A fundamental shift in the balance of power in the Indo-Pacific region, including a decline in the relative military power of the United States, has created significant strategic uncertainties for Australia which are only likely to intensify, the report says.

Australia, India and South Africa will increasingly have mutual significant security interests this century, and these three nations could form the foundation for new regional maritime security cooperation arrangements in the Indian Ocean, it concludes.