Venezuela's Power Transition in Doubt

CARACAS—Uncertainty is growing here over who will lead Venezuela after Thursday, when an ailing President Hugo Chávez seems increasingly unlikely to be sworn in after being re-elected in October.

ENLARGE

Supporters of Mr. Chávez, who is in a Cuban hospital, gathered Saturday outside the legislature in Caracas.
Agence France-Presse/Getty Images

Venezuelans have gone nearly a month without hearing or seeing from Mr. Chávez, who the government says is in "delicate" but stable condition at a medical center in Cuba following cancer surgery on Dec. 11.

For the Chávez-led socialist government, which has held power since 1999, the answer is clear: Mr. Chávez won the October elections handily, they say, so he will continue his duties as president without a formal swearing-in ceremony Thursday. That is despite the leader's condition in Havana, with a "severe pulmonary infection."

Vice President
Nicolas Maduro,
a Chávez loyalist who was tapped by the president to succeed him if he cannot continue his duties, said on live television over the weekend that Mr. Chávez shall "continue his functions and the formality of being sworn in can be resolved later by the Supreme Court."

In this WSJ documentary, reporter David Luhnow looks at Venezuela's president, Hugo Chavez. Now undergoing treatment for cancer, Chavez has named a possible successor, raising the question of whether his "21st century socialism" can outlive its founder. Photo: AP

The opposition, though, is crying foul, saying the court is stacked with pro-Chávez loyalists. They also point to the Venezuelan constitution, which specifies that if an elected leader can't take office on Jan. 10, which it sets as the inauguration date, then new elections must be called within 30 days.

The constitution is less clear, however, about what happens when a president or president-elect is alive, but unable to attend his swearing-in ceremony. Some legal experts say they believe the head of the national legislature,
Diosdado Cabello
—a Chávez loyalist who was re-elected to a new term on Saturday—would temporarily assume the presidency until he could be sworn in or elections decide a winner. An election would likely pit Mr. Maduro against opposition leader
Henrique Capriles.

Still, opposition forces have made no indication yet that they would stand in the way of letting Mr. Chávez remain as president, in sickness or in health.

"The most-asked question is 'What will happen Jan. 10?' " said
Luis Vicente León,
an analyst who heads the respected polling firm Datanalisis. "The answer: Probably nothing. The status quo will continue."

The reason for this, analysts say, is that opposition leaders don't want to appear as if they are trying to take advantage of Mr. Chávez's health problems to unseat him on a technicality. That could work against them if new elections are held over the coming weeks or months.

Mr. Maduro has already sought to use the opposition's position against it. "They're trying to destabilize the country," he said recently. "They want to create an institutional coup."

What is creating the most tension between Chávez backers and the opposition is the veil of secrecy that remains over the president's health. After being diagnosed with cancer more than a year and half ago and having four surgeries, chemotherapy and radiation treatment, Mr. Chávez has still not revealed what kind of cancer he has. He has said it is in the "pelvic area."

The lack of information has become acute in the weeks following his December surgery. His medical team hasn't spoken, and the updates given on Mr. Chávez's health have been vague. A few days ago the government said the situation was "complicated," while on another day it said the president is "calm and stable," without providing more details.

Ramón Guillermo Aveledo
a top opposition official, has demanded the government "tell the truth." A rising chorus of Venezuelans on Twitter and other social media is calling for the government to offer "proof-of-life" for Mr. Chávez, such as a photograph or video.

If Thursday passes without any formal inauguration ceremony, the Supreme Court could take up the case and issue a ruling in the weeks ahead. But analysts say it is unlikely to rule against the government position.

"The courts, and specifically the Supreme Court, are absolutely, unconditionally, without fail, totally faithful to Chávez," said
Antonio Canova,
a law professor at Universidad Católica Andrés Bello.

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