Davis ekes out 7-point lead over Simon / Field Poll shows voters against hopeful rather than for governor

Lynda Gledhill, Chronicle Sacramento Bureau

Published 4:00 am, Thursday, July 11, 2002

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Davis ekes out 7-point lead over Simon / Field Poll shows voters against hopeful rather than for governor

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2002-07-11 04:00:00 PDT Sacramento -- Despite Gov. Gray Davis' problems with a state contracting scandal, a budget deficit and criticism over his fund-raising tactics, California voters reluctantly give him a 7-point lead over Los Angeles businessman Bill Simon, a Field Poll released today shows.

Half the state's voters have viewed the Democratic incumbent negatively for more than a year, but the new poll found his Republican challenger was backed by only 1 in 3 likely voters -- primarily the state's most conservative Republicans.

The numbers show the Republicans again hurt by a problem that has plagued them in recent statewide elections -- rejecting candidates in the middle in favor of conservatives with little appeal to a majority of Californians.

"A more moderate, perhaps more experienced candidate would be in a much stronger position to take advantage of Davis' weakness," said Bruce Cain, a political science professor at UC Berkeley.

Davis has a more than 2-1 lead among independents, a key swing voter group in California, and gained 49 percent support from those who call themselves "middle of the road" to 22 percent for Simon.

The poll also revealed another trend that has troubled Republicans in recent elections -- a gender gap in which more women support the Democratic candidate. Female voters surveyed backed Davis by 42 percent to 30 percent for Simon.

Overall, 41 percent of the likely voters polled said they would vote for Davis, while 34 percent picked Simon. Nine percent said they would support a minor party candidate, and 16 percent remain undecided.

Still, the poll showed Davis is unpopular and struggling to attract voters outside his partisan base, said Mark DiCamillo, director of the Field Poll.

"The percentage of voters choosing Davis over Simon has been edging down," DiCamillo said. "That is symbolic of the governor's situation. He is really not expanding his voter base. And, in fact, it is actually contracting over time. That has to be worrisome."

The poll of 647 likely voters was taken June 25-July 2 and has a margin of error of plus or minus four percentage points.

The survey also found Davis with a significant advantage in support among voters in the Bay Area and Los Angeles County, Latino voters and those with annual incomes of less than $40,000.

Simon was backed 71 percent to 11 percent by those identifying themselves as "strongly conservative" and 67 percent to 14 percent among Republicans.

He also had an edge over the governor among Central Valley voters and those who said the state is headed in the wrong direction.

The poll is the first independent measure of the contest since the two candidates began broadcasting television commercials last month.

Analysts and campaign strategists said the poll suggests that the advertising -- beginning earlier and run more often than in past elections -- is beginning to shape the way voters see the candidates.

The poll showed that Simon was viewed unfavorably by 39 percent to 30 percent who saw him as favorable and 31 percent with no opinion. That negative rating has risen from 24 percent in late February before Simon's surprising win in the March GOP primary.

"That has something to do with the advertising campaign Davis launched," DiCamillo said.

Davis has run a series of television ads, both attacking Simon and noting his own record. Simon has also begun airing commercials touting his background and criticizing the governor.

Simon on Wednesday began an ad blaming Davis for the budget stalemate, while Davis this week premiered an ad that contrasted his record of public service -- including military duty -- to Simon's record of not having voted in many elections.

"There is still a large proportion of people who haven't gotten a beat on who Simon is," DiCamillo said. "I don't think his advertising has really kicked in."

Sal Russo, Simon's chief campaign strategist, said they expect a barrage of attack ads from the governor.

"Davis' negatives are so strong and so hard, I'm sure they are going to just be flailing away for the next 120 days," he said. "Obviously, when you face that kind of a barrage nonstop it is going to run your negatives up."

Davis' unfavorable ratings have remained about 50 percent since May 2001, several months after last year's energy crisis. The new poll found 51 percent of those surveyed had a negative view of the governor, to 37 percent who rated him favorably and 12 percent with no opinion.

"His numbers are not looking good," DiCamillo said.

Garry South, Davis' political adviser, said the popularity numbers are a "fact of life."

"We've been dealing with them for longer than a year," he said. "It is just something we have to work around. I don't think when this is all over that Bill Simon will win any popularity contests either."

After last year's energy crisis, Davis has also struggled with the Oracle scandal, which forced him to fire several top managers, and an almost $24 billion budget shortfall that prompted him to call for increased taxes.

But Davis' poor numbers are not translating into a boon for Simon, who has never run for political office before and touted himself as a conservative candidate in the primary. While that strategy worked in the GOP primary, he has been unable to widen his support since.

Cain said that was "the calculation" Davis made when he and his campaign team attacked then-GOP front-runner Richard Riordan before the March primary.

Riordan, the former Los Angeles mayor, was widely viewed as a moderate candidate who could appeal to disaffected Democrats, women and minority voters.

Polls at the time found him favored in hypothetical head-to-head matches with Davis.

Cain said voters will hold their noses and choose even if they find both main candidates unappealing.

"Voting is a comparison," he said. "It is not just up or down on the incumbent. You can't automatically assume dissatisfaction translates into a no vote."