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10 tips for draft flexibility, success

With fantasy baseball draft and auction season in full swing, we're all looking for an edge. Here are 10 tips for success: 1. Don't draft Mike Trout first This might seem like silly or even terrible advice,

With fantasy baseball draft and auction season in full swing, we're all looking for an edge. Here are 10 tips for success:

1. Don't draft Mike Trout first

This might seem like silly or even terrible advice, but trust us. The chance of Trout generating value for the price he will command is close to zero. Ignore Average Draft Position (ADP) and the urge to fall for his historic 2012. The analysts putting him in the top tier are taking the safe road because it is easy and because they don't want to look foolish. There is hardly a statistic from Trout's 2012 that looks repeatable.

Trout's home run total came from a combination of a low fly-ball rate and fortunate percentage of home runs per fly balls. It's an unstable combination that is almost impossible to repeat.

Batting average? His batting average for balls in play (BABIP) was .383; no player in history has a BABIP this high over a career. Every hitter establishes his own level of BABIP, but the norm is usually around .300 or .310. That means his batting average from 2012 is likely to go down. Add in his weight gain — which affects not only stolen bases but also batting average (fewer infield hits) — and it becomes even more unlikely he'll be able to repeat 2012. A good player, but hardly a top-of-the-first-round guy.

One commodity that exists in abundance is good, cheap pitching. As the overall offensive levels have gone down and power has become scarce, low-end pitching is plentiful and valuable. The result is that coupling an ace such as Justin Verlander or Clayton Kershaw with four or five highly skilled pitchers under $5 is a viable strategy. Pitchers such as A.J. Griffin, Marco Estrada, Ivan Nova and a host of others will do you well, even in mixed leagues.

3. Don't draft one-dimensional players

Cheap speed is another abundant commodity. Many players can produce 15-20 steals for a dollar, so there is no reason to pay a higher price for players such as Brett Gardner or Michael Bourn when Gregor Blanco or Norichika Aoki are available for less. That is not to say you should build a team based only on late speed, but draft power early. There are plenty of speedy backup plans at the end.

4. Know the player pool

Your motto should be, "If a name comes up that I do not recognize, I have failed." Your draft preparation must be extremely thorough and broad-based if you seek to be a serious player. In a 12- or 15-team mixed league, knowing all of the names is not as difficult as you might think. Don't be the one fumbling around for names or stats when it's time to pick or bid.

5. Be flexible

We've all had players sniped directly in front of us or planned closers ambushed in a run before we thought it was possible. That doesn't mean you should draft a closer you didn't want because they are going off the board. Zig when others zag; throw out your plan and caution to the wind when necessary. You might be surprised how well it turns out. Players are mostly fungible commodities, so whether you get any particular one doesn't matter in the least. (But see No.4.)

6. Don't stick to "value"

As a corollary to being flexible, there is no need to stick to projected "value." Only two-thirds of players will generate production within $5 (plus or minus) of their market value. That means any player will fall within a seven- or eight-round group if you are in a straight draft league. It will only hurt if you pass on a player you like because it is a round or two early or because his price is $1 or $2 higher than projected. Fantasy baseball is a game of markets, not accuracy of projections.

7. When in doubt, think multiposition

This is even more important in deeper leagues or leagues with large benches. When it comes to hitters, the free agent wires in recent years have become bereft of usable players. You do not want to be forced to pick up someone such as Freddy Galvis or Brandon Crawford from the free agent pool in a pinch. Go the extra dollar or round on a player with multiple eligibility at a middle-infield position — think Ben Zobrist — so that you can keep to the corners or outfield with your Free Agent Acquisition Budget (FAAB).

8. No rookies in standard leagues

The surest sign of an unprepared fantasy owner is one who drafts untested rookies when players with a track record of positive value are still available. Why would you draft Wil Myers in a 12-team mixed league when you can get players such as Drew Stubbs or Juan Pierre? Both are being drafted after Myers in mixed leagues; in single-year leagues this is the epitome of foolishness.

9. Bring only cheat sheets to your draft

There are few things more annoying in a draft than someone calling "time" while they pull out a book to look up a stat or find a player to nominate. Your preparation should be thorough enough that all you need is a ranking/dollar value list and maybe depth charts. It is more important to be attuned to the ebb and flow of the draft/auction than it is to know that Player X had a .275 batting average last year. If you are prepared, you will know that anyway and that piece of information doesn't really matter.

10. Know your league's rules

This seems straightforward, but in a recent experts league auction there was a controversy with previously auctioned players being rolled back because someone didn't know the rules. Can you over-auction players and put them on your bench? If a player gets one game at a position is he then eligible? What happens if there is a tie in FAAB bidding? We are willing to bet many owners do not know the answers to these questions in their leagues.

Successful drafts are closer to an art than a science, so treat them as such. Be flexible, don't be beholden to "values" or ADPs and draft players you prefer at every chance. Don't take a stab on someone who has a better projection that you just do not feel confident in. And, most important, do not make a pick because you do not want to look foolish. Your skills — and perhaps your wallet — will thank you.