New Data on Same Sex Marriage and Forecasting Possible Change

1. Opposition towards same sex marriage within the Mormon Church is decreasing. In 2013, it was 68%. In 2017 it was 53%.

2. There is a huge generation gap. 52% of Mormons 18-29 favor same sex marriage compared to 32% of seniors (65 and up).

Overall across all Americans, 61% favor same sex marriage. Among Mormons it is 40%. I didn’t see a comparable data point for all Mormons in 2013, but it looks like it must be about 30%. That’s a huge jump in four years.

I predict this will continue to increase until the majority of active LDS support gay marriage. At that point, there will be considerable amount of prayers and humble requests coming from active LDS asking the brethren to inquire of the Lord regarding gay marriage. I predict it will be no more than 10 years after that, that we see a revelation approving gay LDS to marry and be deemed worthy according to Law of Chastity. This is “trickle up revelation”.

I posted this on Facebook, and of course there were some lively replies.

This reply was interesting:

Maybe you are right. Maybe the church will soften it’s stance on LGBT relationships and support same-sex marriages.

I have trouble reconciling that idea with my understanding of God/nature’s God so that would result in a significant faith crisis for me personally.

My reply:

This idea of causing faith crisis is a key piece of this. Whether you consider this from a faithful perspective with God in charge who tenderly cares for his fold or you consider this from a skeptical-cynical perspective with leaders who only care about maximizing tithing dollars, both views have a priority for minimizing faith crisis. I think this is why in order for this to happen, there needs to be considerable preparation. This is the trickle up aspect of it. The LDS Body of Christ needs to prepare itself. I think if it happened now, it would be abrupt and cause faith crisis. But I think over the next 30 years, the Spirit of God will cause the majority of members to wrestle with this until the Church is ready. My opinion…

Also of note, while we’re forecasting. Pres. Oaks is 85 years old and the most likely to succeed Pres. Nelson as prophet. After the Oaks period, starting in roughly about 8-10 years and lasting roughly 4-8 years, the prophet will likely be Elder Holland or Elder Uchtdorf. After that, the prophet will likely be Elder Bednar for a 10-15 year time period. After that, the next prophet will likely come from the apostles chosen in the last couple rounds: Stevenson, Gong, Renlund, Soares.

17 thoughts on “New Data on Same Sex Marriage and Forecasting Possible Change”

Not sure about a leadership style (from God or the Prophet), that waits for the followers to agree before requiring what is right to be done. What happened to calling to repentance. This style undermines credibility of revelation.
It seems that in America your politics overrules your religion, on this issue.
I think in the next 10 years there will come a point where to be anti gay will be as unaceptable as it is to be racist.
Australia had a national vote on this last year with similar overall results, but the no votes here were recent immigrants. Many other areas had 80% yes votes.

We feel very sure that you understand well the doctrines of the Church
They are either true or not true. Our testimony is that they are true. Under
these circumstances we may not permit ourselves to be too much impressed by
the reasonings of men however well-founded they may seem to be. We should like
to say this to you in all kindness and in all sincerity that you are too fine a
man to permit yourself to be led off from the principles of the Gospel by worldly-
learning, you have too much of a potentiality for doing good and we therefore
prayerfully hope that you can reorient your thinking and bring it in line with
the revealed word of God.

What if SSM becomes illegal in much of the USA in a couple of years? Would the trend reverse?
I suspect that this may be a huge issue in the next presidential election, with a likely 5-4 majority of the supreme court who may vote to overturn the narrow ruling that legalized SSM.

Zach, Has there been a revelation, I am not aware of on this subject?
It is not the influence of the world, but my understanding/personal revelation that it is not Gods will that we refuse to love in a Christlike manner when we discriminate against some of our fellows.
Whether or not the US regresses the res t of the first world has moved on.

Geoff, I was being a little facetious. These words are the closing remarks of President George Albert Smith in an exchange with Lowry Nelson in 1946. Dr. Nelson wrote a series of letters to a mission president and then the president of the church regarding the church’s stance on race. I just thought it was fitting to use here. Here are the letters if you are interested.

I do agree with you that the rest of the first world has moved on, but the church is not growing in the first world. I would like to see how Latin America, South America, and Africa view same sex marriage. That is where the church is growing the most and I imagine that the current stance on homosexuality is a selling point in those parts of the world.

I see some similarities in the stance on race issues of the past and the current stance on homosexuality. I see some differences also. That change was relatively easy to change and did not rock the boat too violently. Much of what the church holds as doctrine would have to be walked back for churchistrue’s prediction to be right. The nature of God, purpose of sealing, exaltation, polygamy, literal begotten spirit children, God being “endless”, most of our current temple ceremony etc. I can’t even imagine how the church would start changing the narrative and lessons. It does sound like Greg Prince is going to challenge the brethren on this one. Elder Gong has to have some pretty strong feelings on this issue as well.

Part of the church’s problem in first world countries is its discrimination against women and gays. Religion generally has lost credibility because it on one hand protected abusers, and on the other discriminating against others on supposed moral grounds.
I don’t see the problems for change Zach does. There was much more about Christlike love during last conference, I can’t see that continuing without someone realising that Christlike love, and “all are alike unto God” doesn’t allow us to continuing to discriminate against gays or women.
Will be interesting next few years.

I find the prospect of a Nelson-Oaks-Bednar succession to be deeply discouraging. It won’t matter who comes after that because there won’t be anyone left to lead. Who wants to be in a church that is more conservative than the KKK?

“I would like to see how Latin America, South America, and Africa view same sex marriage. That is where the church is growing the most and I imagine that the current stance on homosexuality is a selling point in those parts of the world.”

It is. Contrary doctrines get your Church expelled from Russia, and disqualify you as one of the people of the Book in Africa.

There are huge issues

And remember that it wasn’t Aaron who was punished for giving the people the Golden Calf they asked for

I foresee a lot of people not just in the US, but in a most developed nations, leaving the church. How the Church deals with homosexuality will be one major issue, but there are others. In the end, it’s not just the church’s position on issues like this that cause people to leave; how the church treats those who leave will be a bigger influencer. If my son leaves because he is gay, that’s one person who has stopped attending, but if his siblings see the community excommunicate their brother, that’s an entire family the church stands to lose.

In the end though this is merely the symptom of the problem. My kids are going to leave the Church because it’s not Christian. I present as exhibit A, if you object, the exclusion policy.

MTodd,
This treatment is not Christlike and therefore not Christian. However, most of the so called Christian churches treat us pretty much the same way as the Mormon church. That is why I prefer to use Christlike. I appreciate your comments.