Is ‘top two’ killing third parties? Not really

While California’s “top two” primary has been bad news for third-party election efforts, some of the advocates for independent candidates are sounding way too confident about how wonderfully well they might have done if only the old system were in place.

Williamson, a social justice advocate who the release described as an “internationally known spiritual leader,” finished fourth behind a Republican and two Democrats in the June primary for the Los Angeles County congressional seat left open by retiring Democratic Rep. Henry Waxman.

“If Marianne Williamson had been running under the old system (which was used until 2010), she could have won,” the release trumpeted. By filing a petition signed by 3 percent of the electorate, she would have been guaranteed a spot on the November ballot, running against Republican Elan Carr and Democratic state Sen. Ted Lieu.

Couple of problems, though. While Williamson, who ran as an independent, may have been “a strong, bright, peaceful and popular candidate,” she still finished fourth. And although getting the signatures for the ballot petition was dismissed as “something she easily could have done,” collecting 13,872 signatures (3 percent of the district’s registration) or even 9,540 signatures (3 percent of the votes cast in the 2012 general election) is anything but a slam dunk.

The foundation also complains, in bold type, that “Thus far no independent has been able to get elected under the top two system.”

Yes, but that dismal track record is nothing new, since third-party candidates weren’t able to get elected before 2012, either. In recent memory, Audie Bock of the Green Party won an Oakland Assembly seat in a 1999 special election and that’s about it. And it’s worth noting that Bock quickly dropped her Green Party membership and ran as decline-to-state in her unsuccessful 2000 re-election bid and then registered as a Democrat.

There’s no arguing that the current system, which puts only the primary election’s two highest vote-getters on the general election ballot, makes it tough for independent candidates to reach November. That’s why the foundation, joined by California’s minor parties, is suing to overturn Proposition 14, which authorized the top two primary.

But even when the Libertarians, Greens and other minor parties got a free pass to the fall campaign, their candidates lost. And badly.

For all the complaints of California’s minor parties, the only real change with top two has been the system, not the result. Until those parties can field a candidate the state’s Democratic, Republican and independent voters can unite behind, the only question will be whether their candidates will lose in June or in November.