Slate’s Mickey Kaus did a fine job of taking apart the Kerry-Bush horse race poll that ran in yesterday’s New York Times but he’s not sharing the worst-case scenario victory that Republicans are quietly talking about.
Here’s the background: The Times says Bush has the lowest approval rating — 42 percent — of his presidency. But says that 40 percent of those who have formed an impression of Democratic nominee John Kerry don’t like him.
In other words, this election is a dead heat, The Times explains in some detail: In the 18 states viewed by both parties as the most competitive — and thus the subject of the most advertising expenditures and visits by the candidates — the race was equally tight. Forty-five percent of voters in those states said they would support Mr. Kerry, and 43 percent said they would back Mr. Bush. Indeed, on a host of measures, the poll found little difference in public opinion between the nation as a whole and that of voters in the competitive states.
What are Republicans thinking: that Bush will lose – once again – the popular vote. You get there by taking out New York and California, both clearly going for Kerry, and adding in a handful of the 18 states were the race is competitive and, oh, yeah Florida – again – giving Bush enough electoral votes to win.
Not pretty, is it?