While politicians are routinely denounced and derided for their lack of vision the events in France over the past few weeks have demonstrated the hazards that lie in wait for leaders who take their courage in their hands and attempt to chart a new course for their societies.....

....The setback suffered by Macron is a salutary lesson for political leaders around Europe as they try to devise the best policies to deal with climate change and other major challenges such as immigration, where the public may not be in tune with what needs to be done....

....Closer to home when Minister for Finance Paschal Donohoe unveiled his budget in the Dáil back in October he was widely criticised, including in this column, for his decision not to raise the price of diesel or do anything else of significance with regard to climate change.Looking at how events have played out in France, the conclusion must be that Donohoe was politically wise to approach the issue cautiously and wait until the public is persuaded of the need for higher carbon taxes before setting off down that road....

....When Ireland was threatened with financial collapse back in the 2008-2010 period a range of severe measures which had a direct impact on the incomes of most people were taken.There were no riots on the streets and, if anything, a general acceptance that pain had to be endured as the price of national survival. There was, though, a massive political price and the Fianna Fáil government which implemented the cutbacks was trounced in 2011. In politics there is often no reward for doing the right thing.

This really has been a very slow motion disaster. Playing out for close to 20 years. The real tragedy is that the financial crisis happened at the beginning of Sarkozys term, not the end. With different timing Sarkozy would have been able to push through the needed reforms. He was given just enough space by the other side to try to pull off a Mendes France. Now too late. And Macron has zero of the political skills of a Sarkozy or even a DSK. The only other guy who could have succeeded politically in pushing through the necessary reforms.

In your opinion what are the necessary reforms?

Well ten years ago I would have said that the plan outlined in Sarkozys book "Ensemble ", if 70% plus of the proposed reforms were forced through, would put France on the right track. After 2008 even though both Sarkozy and the DSK wing of the PS made a valiant attempt to try to put together realistic plans all are doomed to fail due to the lost years due to the financial crisis and the straitjacket of the euro. Macrons "reforms" are just a rehash of the DSK/PS plans wrapped in EU-Speak so are doomed to fail. They solve nothing.

So just more drift and lost years until the Germans pull the plug on the current Euro.

_________________"Democracy is like sausage, you want it, but you don't want to know how it is made". [John Godfrey Saxe]Ronald Coase, Nobel Economic Sciences, said in 1991 “If we torture the data long enough, it will confess.”"Give me control of a nation's money and I care not who makes it's laws" — Mayer Amschel Bauer Rothschild"To be precise, my mistake. Humans are underrated": Elon Musk

The use of the word "putschistes" is very interesting. Very much a dog whistle phrase. As is the claim they will be "armed". The purported source of the leak, direct from the Elysee, is also very interesting.

They are talking about the political consequences of "dix morts ". Ten dead bodies. Very unusual.

My best guess, in the context of French politics, is that Macron has ordered a showdown this week end. A show of force. That the CRS heavy squad will have live rounds ready to use. And will use them if given the oppertunity. And given past performance by some of the state players dont be too surprised that if some of the casseurs who are shot while rioting weapons will be conveniently found close by. Thats how this game has always been played. Both sides know the rules.

All this makes the surprise resignation of the Interior Minister Gerard Collomb back in October far less of a surprise. He would have had access to unparalleled real time intelligence from the monthly reports from the 10,00 maries across France of what was going on at a local level. And given that he is reported to alluded to an atmosphere of near "civil war" in his resignation address he would have been getting very accurate reports of just how bad the situation was right across France. The media reports are that he tried to tell Macron how bad things were, Macron would not listen, so Collomb decided, fuck this, I've had enough, I am going back to being Mayor of Lyon. Which given what has happened over the last few weeks was an exceptionally astute move.

@jmc There has been a leaked photo circulating of the instruction for a full deployment of the police on or by the 8th. All holidays suspended. I’ll try dig it out but that seems to tie in with your observation.

According to the BBC the French government are planning for a showdown.

Quote:

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-46466268Prime Minister Édouard Philippe said that "exceptional means" would be used on Saturday. He said 89,000 police officers would be on duty across France and armoured vehicles would be deployed in the capital - the first time since 1968.

Confirming that the fuel tax had been abandoned, he told senators that the calm of most protesters around the country contrasted with the "extreme violence" seen in Paris.

_________________"Democracy is like sausage, you want it, but you don't want to know how it is made". [John Godfrey Saxe]Ronald Coase, Nobel Economic Sciences, said in 1991 “If we torture the data long enough, it will confess.”"Give me control of a nation's money and I care not who makes it's laws" — Mayer Amschel Bauer Rothschild"To be precise, my mistake. Humans are underrated": Elon Musk

Talk about tone deaf and clueless. Lay claim to "solidarity" with the gilet jaune but just the usual trite marxist ecobabble. Change some of the phrases, the bogey men, and the targets of abuse and its exactly the same document as would have been written by the same sort of people in 1978. About two thirds of the signatories are the unreconstructed Communists of the CGT and PCF, and assorted marxists of various hues. Mostly blood red. The rest are your typical european eco's. Overwhelmingly urban, middle class, disproportionately public sector, and very low information especially when it comes to science. Despite their pretensions to being well informed.

I hope the CRS have more than enough tear gas on hand to fire at these people if they turn out en-mass on Saturday. Richly deserved.

@jmc There has been a leaked photo circulating of the instruction for a full deployment of the police on it by the 8th. All holidays suspended. I’ll try dig it out but that seems to tie in with your observation.

There seems to be a battle royal going on at the moment over who controls what. The talk about declaring a state of emergency, again, I suspect was more to take away discretionary power from the presidential office, via Interior and the Prefet De Police, than the actual seriousness of the situation. Given the amount of bad blood between Macron and the military establishment Macrons people dont want the state of emergency declared even though the military, via the Gendarmerie, are better suited to deal with the current situation. Plus Macrons people have a track record of not listening to good advice from the various parts of the security apparatus. Hence the inept deployments of forces in central Paris that let last weekends riots get totally out of hand. The police on the ground were very vocal to reporters in letting it be known that it was the "superiors" i.e Place Beauvau that was responsible for placing them in the wrong locations. And refused to redeploy forces as the situation changed during the day. The body language of the police at the Arc when Macron did his photo op tells you all you need to know how little they like him. Apart from the running battles with the casseurs the police so far have been remarkable tolerant and friendly to the gilet jaune in the rest of France. Who are basically people just like themselves.

Which will make any attempted crackdown by Macron very interesting. Because unlike DeGaulle Macron has no substantive support among the military or the police. Nor I suspect in any of the state agencies who usually "make things happened" when need-be. As I said, it will be an interesting weekend. As Macron does not have the political "flexibility" of a Mitterand he wont adapt to the new political reality so he's probably a very lame duck president for the rest of his term.

Interior Minister Castaner: "Everything suggests that radical elements will try to mobilize" SaturdayThe Elysee fears major new excesses Saturday on the occasion of "act 4" of the mobilization of yellow vests. "Everywhere in France, the mobilization of the police is total. A large-scale device will be implemented throughout France tomorrow," Christophe Castaner also confirms that 89,000 members of the police will be mobilized in France, including 8,000 in Paris.