Cold air retreating from southern Colorado today with 50s reappearing in the Lee of the eastern mountains. Western mountains and interior valleys remain seasonably cold, while unmixed locations in the lower Ark valley from Pueblo eastward have struggled to reach the low 40s under light southeast winds. Snowfall has tapered off to just flurries over the central mountains, though clouds still linger over the higher peaks from Monarch Pass northward. Overnight, westerly flow aloft will continue, with occasional bouts of high level cloudiness across the area. Overnight lows will be seasonably cold most locations, though eastern mountain slopes and areas along/west of I-25 will stay somewhat mixed, keeping lows within a few degf of 32f.

On Saturday, upper jet begins to sag southward, bringing snow back to the central mountains by afternoon. Will start the Winter Storm Watch in the mid-afternoon, though heavier snow and strong winds will likely hold off until after sunset. Farther east, main concern is potential development of strong downslope winds, especially in the Lee of the Sangre de Cristo Range during the late afternoon. Mountain wave sets up after 21z and shear profile looks favorable with strong reverse shear toward 00z as 700 mb winds increase to 60-70 kts. No highlight yet by bears watching. Elsewhere, mild temperatures and breezy to windy conditions will continue, with afternoon highs well above average.

Not much change to the forecast thinking with good model agreement and generally low ensemble spreads through the extended. There will be two upper disturbances, Sunday and again Tuesday, that will bring increased mountain snow. In addition, periods of strong winds will be possible.

Saturday night through Sunday...a quick moving upper disturbance is forecast to move out of the northern rockies, southeast into the Central Plains. This will bring a period of moderate to heavy snowfall to the Continental Divide, especially the central mountains. The heaviest snow is expected late Saturday night into Sunday morning. Snow accumulations of 12 to 18 inches are expected over the central mountains. South of Monarch Pass, less favorable orographic flow will bring less snowfall to the La Garita and San Juan ranges, where 2 to 6 inches, and locally higher amounts, will be possible. In addition to the snowfall, strong westerly winds will move across Colorado. Mountain top winds may gust well in excess of 60 mph. Shear profiles indicate the potential for downslope winds in the Lee of the eastern mountains, especially south of Pueblo late Saturday night into Sunday morning. This will need to be monitored closely. The upper disturbance will quickly shift east of the area by Sunday afternoon. This should allow snow to decrease over the Continental Divide, with light snow persisting into Monday morning, however additional accumulations are expected to be minor. Temperatures Saturday night will depend on mixing, with areas in the Lee of the eastern mountains likely staying pretty warm. Afternoon highs on Sunday will reach the lower 50s for the plains.

Monday...zonal flow aloft will remain across Colorado on Monday. Light snow will persist through the day into Tuesday along the Continental Divide. Minor accumulations of an inch or two will be possible. Strong winds will remain possible over the higher elevations. Afternoon highs will reach into the upper 40s to lower 50s across the lower elevations.

Tuesday and Wednesday...the next upper level disturbance is forecast to move across the area midweek. Expect another round of moderate to heavy snowfall for the Continental Divide beginning Tuesday. This disturbance appears to have a more southerly track, which would indicate better chances for snowfall for the eastern mountains on Tuesday into Wednesday. A cold front is forecast to drop south late Tuesday night across the plains. This will shift flow upslope easterly with a period of precipitation on Wednesday across the plains. Locations of the Palmer Divide and along the Lee slopes of the eastern mountains will be favored for a period of snow, while areas further east will only see light snow. Expect snowfall to come to an end Wednesday evening as the upper disturbance moves east of the area. Temperatures Tuesday will reach the 40 across the plains, while Wednesday will be much colder with highs struggling to reach 30.

Thursday into Friday...flow aloft will weak with flat upper ridging moving out of the western Continental U.S. Into the Central Plains, while an upper trough forms off the West Coast. Expect a few light snow showers over the central mountains Thursday. Flow will transition southwest by Friday, as energy from the system out west moves into western Colorado. This should bring another round of increased snowfall for the Continental Divide for late week. Mozley

VFR at all taf sites tonight and Saturday. Over the mountains, spotty IFR conditions will persist tonight along the Continental Divide from kmyp northward, with some gradual improvement after 06z. On Sat, clouds and -shsn will return to most of the Continental Divide after 18z, with fairly solid IFR over the high peaks and passes by 00z. Farther East, Mountain wave will develop in the Lee of the eastern mountains Sat afternoon, with areas of turbulence and strong winds likely after 18z.