The well-marked low pressure area over east-central Arabian Sea persisted even as US Navy's Joint Typhoon Warning Centre (JTWC) issued a ‘cyclone formation alert' in the basin.

The JTWC ‘alert' gets upgraded to ‘cyclone warning' if all pieces fall into place for calibrated system intensification. Presently, it was more or less lying anchored in the region with little forward movement.

But India Meteorological Department (IMD) has from overnight on Thursday withdrawn the watch for intensification of the system as a depression.

A few global models still see its intensification as a depression/cyclone and initial movement towards south Gujarat-Mumbai region guided apparently by a westerly trough.

It is shown as surviving the westerly trough and once the westerly influence wanes, would ‘bounce back' off southwest Gujarat coast into the sea and drive away in a west-northwest direction caressing the southern Pakistan coast.

The US National Centres for Environmental Prediction and the Taiwanese Central Weather Bureau share this view while the Roundy-Albany model sticks to a track north-northeast across south Gujarat into northwest India.

The Konkan-coastal Karnataka coast is expected to witness some of the heaviest precipitation during the week and early into next. Mumbai and Gujarat regions could also get battered in the process.

Meanwhile on Thursday, the IMD said that the northern limit of monsoon continued to pass through Dahanu, Nasik, Gulbarga, Rentachintala, Narsapur, Agartala, Shillong and Itanagar.

"98A" is still a Low pressure system and very slowly it has moved N-N-E. No intensification so far.
JTWC and other weather models predict that the system can become into a Cyclone in another 48 hrs.

JTWC warning and Map
=====================

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED AT 18.7N
69.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 70.3E, APPROXIMATELY 150 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF MUMBAI, INDIA. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS AN AREA OF CONVECTION ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) THAT HAS PERSISTED FOR SEVERAL
DAYS. THE DEEPEST CONVECTION IS LOCATED JUST WEST OF THE LLCC WITH A
SHALLOWER AREA OF CONVECTION TO THE EAST. A 09/1651Z METOP-A 89 GHZ
MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGE ALSO DEPICTS CONVECTION ALONG THE WESTERN
AND SOUTHERN QUADRANTS. A 09/1714Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS A STRONG (30-35
KNOT) SOUTHWESTERLY SURGE ENHANCING CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHERN AND
WESTERN QUADRANTS. RECENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS FAVORABLE ZONAL
AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, HOWEVER POLEWARD OUTFLOW CONTINUES TO BE
SUPPRESSED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM JUST NORTH OF THE
SYSTEM INTO THE HIMALAYAS. THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO TRAVERSE THE
REGION IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS, RESULTING IN A GRADUAL DECREASE IN
SUBSIDENCE. THE 09/12Z UPPER AIR STREAMLINE ANALYSIS INDICATES THIS
SYSTEM IS LOCATED BENEATH A RIDGE AXIS IN A REGION OF 10-20 KNOTS OF
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE LLCC IS GRADUALLY DRIFTING EASTWARD WITHIN
A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT. MEAN SEA LEVEL PRESSURE AT MUMBAI,
INDIA HAS REMAINED STEADY AT 100O MB DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS.
MAXIMIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18-23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 999 MB. DUE TO CONTINUED
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS HIGH

COLA model suggests a North direction movement towards Gujarat and then move West.COLA suggests a Cyclone size intensification on 12-Jun-2011.

IMD model also suggests more-or-less the same route, while this model did not see any Cyclone formation in another 48 hrs.
Monsoon current along S-W peninsula coast is subdued due to the presence of this system. It's expected to revive over Kerala, Karnataka coast from 14-Jun-2011.