I am not excited about it though. Noel’s size, athleticism and production are worthy of the first pick, but I can’t get over the two knee surgeries. And honestly, whether the Cavs do or don’t pick him, I’m not sure there will be a lot of room for future “I told you so’s”. What fan will legitimately be able to say, “I knew what would happen with his left knee”?

But enough of that…I need to find an answer. I populated my “parallel universe simulator” with the thousands of requisite variables, then let it churn on hundreds of networked computers throughout the course of the week. The hoped-for output: the answer to the question of “which selection will help win the Cavs win the most games over the next ten years?”

But before talking about that, let’s look at one more comparison, this time for Trey Burke (maybe there will be an Anthony Bennett or Alex Len article next week). Here is Burke’s line:

Short and fast with good length. Features a resume of sterling production. NCAA Player of the Year as a sophomore? Check. The second-best PPR in draftexpress.com’s extensive 2013 database? Yep. The 121 offensive rating, combined with 29 usage, against the NCAA’s fourth most difficult schedule? Awesome. A run to the NCAA final? Icing on the cake.

Similar for size and athleticism, Burke’s efficiency stats bested his slightly younger counterpart, including PER of 29 versus Player A’s tally of 25. The comparison guy snagged more rebounds and steals. This is Chris Paul his sophomore year at Wake Forest. Mimicking 2005, could Nerlens Noel be this draft’s Andrew Bogut*, the injury prone defense-first big man? And Ben McLemore fills Marvin Williams role as the athletic freshman that never meets expectations? All the while, no one is paying enough attention to the guy who couldn’t stretch six-foot tall in socks, then Trey Burke takes the NBA by storm from the 4th or 5th slot?

Probably not, but Burke had an excellent season and at a similar age, measures up very well with the game’s best point guard. I am going to talk great about him, flail failingly at driving his stock up, all in a misconstrued attempt to raise the value of the first pick. NBA GM’s…keep your eyes on this trinket…you are getting very sleepy…Trey Burke and Nerlens Noel are future stars…the first pick is extremely valuable…

Because ultimately, I feel like punting on the first pick. On the spectrum of thirty NBA’s teams current tolerance for risk, I’ll assume the Cavs fall in the middle. They are still young and building, but there is a definite desire to see signficant improvement next year. So in this hypothetical “risk aversion ranking”, there are many teams willing to roll the dice more than Cleveland. Teams willing to take the potential franchise center with the health issues, coupled with a desire to tank in 2014. There could even be a team that decides Trey Burke is a superstar and wants to snag him before Orlando does. Six weeks ago, David Thorpe was already advocating for Burke at the top of the draft.

I know every GM is saying they aren’t interested in the #1 pick, but surely a handful are lying. Maybe there’s a really great trade lurking out there somewhere; I won’t even hypothesize further on for what or whom.

But wait…”ding”…the timer went off on my “parallel universe simulator”. And the long awaited results, of one-million alternate realities, over the next ten years:

The Cavs draft Noel 527,000 times.

The world only ends 69 times during those scenarios (never directly because of the Cleveland / Nerlens thing).

Across these runs, the team averages 44 wins per season, peaking at an average of 65 and bottoming out at 29. Best case scenario, they win seven titles.

The Cavs draft Porter 132,000 times.

The team averages 45 wins per season, peaking at average of 61 and bottoming out at 33. Best case; four banners get raised.

The Cavs trade the pick 244,000 times.

Lebron comes back…I’m going to keep those results secret though.

In 247 parallel universes, Nick Gilbert is elected Mayor of Cleveland in the next ten years.

Even more shocking, twice the Lakers relocate to Cleveland, due to rising oceans.

And most amazingly, once in a million realities, Chris Grant quits as GM to live his dreams as a tour guide in the Andes. The Cavs:the Blog writers are named co-GM’s of the Cavaliers. On draft night, after much thought and deliberation, we send Nate up to Commissioner Silver with our selection. A dynasty awaits! To our shock though, Nate submits an alternate card from his back pocket…Kelly Olynyk!! We gasp!!! The world does end in this scenario, directly linked to the Cleveland / Olynyk selection.

Well, I’ve lost my way. Give me a break though…five articles in a week wears me out. Lots of options with the #1 pick; four more weeks until it becomes reality.

*Remember Bogut made All-NBA Third Team one season, and lead the league in per-game blocks another year.

If Burke busts, you can throw $25MM at a free agent point guard next year. Maybe sign Calderon this year to help Burke out his rookie season. Maybe there’s somebody better than Calderon – but he runs a pretty good show and can score if he needs to (and isn’t going against an elite PG defender).

Sign PG Calderon to help Burke out his rookie year. If Burke busts, use the lottery pick or throw $15MM at a veteran free agent next year. Every free agent in the NBA will want to come to Cleveland with that lineup.

Then sign Chris Paul to mentor Burke and we can have a shot at the championship in 2014! We have the cap space. He’d want to come to Cleveland with that lineup – wouldn’t he? LeBron would come back too – wouldn’t he?

Seriously, if we can’t sign Paul then Calderon or somebody would be a good mentor for Burke. I think we can make the playoffs with Calderon in that lineup. If Burke turns out to only be above-average then sign a big named PG next year . . . or use the lottery pick.

Underdog, so what you’re saying is that we trade Kyrie, Zeller, the #19 for the #2, Vucevik, Harkless?

I’d strongly consider that actually. Vucevik is a young center, Harkless a young SF. We still get Noel and we get a young PG. We take a step back with the PG position (especially early on) get killed by the fan and media…but if that team can take us to the playoffs…it might not be so bad. LOL

All of that hinges on Burke turning out OK. Now I really want to see a good long term projection at Burke. LOL I doubt either side would ever consider doing this…but it’d be fun to think about.

I agree with Ryan; Kyrie has the ability to be better than Paul. He has a ways to go though (defense and passing, mainly).

Ben F,
I had Drummond at the bottom of tier 2 last year (behind Beal and MKG). Barnes and Waiters started my tier 3, but I did have a lot easier time talking myself into Waiters than Barnes. We’ll see what next year brings.

And I really don’t want to compare Burke to Paul, just because I don’t like comparing anyone to a top-five NBA player (unless it’s someone like Anthony Davis or Kevin Durant, basically a freshman that set the NCAA on fire). But Burke and CP3’s size, athleticism, and sophomore year production are pretty similar. I like Burke. As we approach the draft and I make a non-Cav big board, I could envision Burke ending as my #2…maybe #1. Next few weeks are time for really putting guys in order.

@Ryan- I agree. As an all star in his second year, and as a player that almost made the Olympic roster (and he will make it next summer Olympics), Kyrie’s potential is pretty amazing. With mike brown helping his defense this year, I believe Kyrie will be in the top 3 of PG in the league next year, at least.

@underdog- a nice thought with that trade. Only problem is Gilbert/Grant want to win now. Noel won’t help this year, and Burke would need a year or two to develop. That’s not making the playoffs. Since they are in a win now mode, that’s why I think they trade the #1 for a talented big man like Love/Aldridge/Cousins. That gets us at least the 8 seed next year and paves the way for lebron to make a return (hopefully).

Kevin – You really made a few nice arguments for Burke over the last few days and I was wondering about how much you really believed them. I compared Burke to Knight . . . maybe not so much as a type of player but more to the effect of what his ceiling might be (not that Knight has hit his ceiling). If Burke is a Chris Paul – I make that trade. But I don’t think he is. But we’re still left with a lottery pick next year.

And I agree with the others about how great Kyrie can be. Maybe we ask for more in that trade.

But I came up with that trade because I like Vucevic more than all the other big men that everyone has been talking about (Love/Aldridge/Cousins). He’s young and efficient, can do it all and has no baggage.

I get that point guard is the least valuable position because it it the deepest in the league. I get that only one All-Star point guard has won a title in the same year in the last 21 years. I get that it’s harder to find an above average starter at the other positions…I still wouldn’t consider trading Kyrie. I wouldn’t trade consider trading Kyrie even for the #1 pick in 2014 or for Anthony Davis.

Blowing up your rebuild after two years is why the Warriors have been pendejo for the past thirty years. They never let their foundation set and have been in perpetual rebuilding.

The Cavs had the amazing fortune of replacing a superstar with another one a year later. I’m not entirely convinced that Waiters and Irving are an ideal backcourt together.

I get that we’re sick of losing and want a big move to happen. We actually have a big fish. Keep that one. There’s a good chance that Grant doesn’t make a big fish move until after the draft or during the season. Harden was shopped around the draft and no one saw his move coming until it happened. There will be another big trade within the next year. Wait for that. The addition of defense and the natural growth of the roster will improve the record significantly. Don’t take home the first girl you see. Take home the really hot one with low self-esteem. It’s worth the wait.

CavsFan888: Why do you think Grant/Gilbert want to push for the playoffs in 13/14? They have been patiently building a powerhouse team for 14/15 and beyond. Why give up now at the worst possible time? That is how teams like the Clippers and Warriors stay bad for decades.

I really dont like giving up Kyrie for Vucevic, I understand how you got there but a 13/12 with mediocre defense on a very bad team doesnt sound like something worth giving up a franchise cornerstone for, the difference between Kyrie and Burke is much greater then the difference between Zeller and Vucevic

Harkless vr. 19 (Muhummad, Bullock, Karasev, Crabbe) i think i would want more then Harkless

Kindov like the idea but I think were married to Kyrie, and im ok with that

I think us cavs fans are overrating Vucevic because he had really good games against the cavs last year, every time we played him It felt like he had been slapping up at 20/10 all year, then id look at his other games and be underwhelmed, idk he is good but hes not Marc Gasol

As Adam said, the Cavs are married to Irving. He has top 8 value in the league. Two more years on his rookie deal and he’s already a go to guy. The only way they trade him is if he refuses to sign a longterm contract next year. I can’t think of a worthy player turning down his first max contract in much worse situations. The Timberwolves didn’t play Love and didn’t offer him a five year contract and he still signed. Young players need the security of that post rookie deal contract. The Cavs should and will offer Irving a 5 year max contract next year. I’d only give him the five if there’s no opt out until at least after the fourth year and ideally none at all.

I’m not entirely convinced that Waiters is the ideal backcourt mate for Irving, but they’ve had an incredibly small amount of time together on the floor. It can work if both players get better at moving without the ball. Dion has been killing himself this offseason to get better. He’s driven. Waiters will probably never become Wade, but if he plays to his strengths and plays solid defense he’ll be in that neighborhood.

The interesting thing about this rebuild is that the Cavs will have a solid backcourt and frontcourt if they do draft Noel and he’s healthy. You don’t need a superstar SF to make that work. Irving and Waiters are probably going to give you 44 points and 14 assists a game or so once they develop. If Noel and Thompson can combine for 23 points and 20 rebounds with 8 combined steals plus blocks, you’ve got a stew going baby.

Defense wins titles, but you need offense too. You need to be able to score 100 a night consistently. The above scenario is completely reasonable. You should have 67 points out of those four. If your SF and bench can combine for 33 a night (completely doable), you’ll be fine.

The Lineup: (Click for Author’s Archive)

Nate Smith is an Associate Editor. He grew up in Anchorage, Alaska, and moved to NE Ohio in 2000. He adopted the Cavs in 2003 and graduated from Kent State in 2009 with a BA in English. He can be contacted at oldseaminer@gmail.com or @oldseaminer on Twitter.

Tom Pestak is an Associate Editor. He's from the west side of Cleveland and lives and (mostly) dies by the success and (mostly) failures of his beloved teams. You can watch his fanaticism during Cavs games @tompestak.

Robert Attenweiler is a Staff Writer. Originally from OH, he's long made his home in NYC where he writes plays and screenplays (www.disgracedproductions.com) some of which end up being about Ohio, basketball or both. He has also written for The Classical and the blog Raising the Cadavalier. You can contact him at rattenweiler@gmail.com or @cadavalier.

Benjamin Werth is a Staff Writer. He was born in Cleveland and raised in Mentor, OH. He now lives in Germany where he is an opera singer and actor. He can be reached at blfwerth@gmail.com.

Cory Hughey is a Staff Writer. He grew up in Youngstown, the Gary, Indiana of Ohio. He graduated from Youngstown State in 2008 with a worthless telecommunications degree. He can be contacted at theleperfromwatts@yahoo.com or @coryhughey on Twitter.

David Wood is our Links Editor. He is a 2012 Graduate of Syracuse University with an English degree who loves bikes, beer, basketball, writing, and Rimbaud. He can be reached on Twitter: @nothingwood.

Mallory Factor is the voice of Cavs: The Podcast. By day Mallory works in fundraising and by night he runs a music business company. To see his music endeavors check out www.fivetracks.com. Hit him up at Malloryfactorii@gmail.com or @Malfii.

John Krolik is the Editor Emeritus of Cavs: The Blog. At present, he is pursuing a law degree at Tulane University. You can contact him at johnkrolik@gmail.com or @johnkrolik.

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