I recently reflected on a seeming parallel between economics and flying. For those who have piloted an aircraft, they will be intimately familiar with a stall. For those who have not, it is a condition of flight in which lift is reduced to such an extent that normal flight ceases and the aircraft becomes a brick. Stalls can occur in a variety of circumstances. The most commonly thought of condition is when the aircraft is flying too slow. Once an aircraft stalls, in certain circumstances, it can enter a spin. A plume of rising smoke soon follows.

Pilots routinely practice stalling an aircraft so they know how to recover from a stall. But, perhaps more importantly, pilots routinely practice stalling an aircraft so they know what the onset of a stall feels like and how to take corrective action before actually entering a stall. There is another characteristic of a stall that adds to the excitement. The same thing that causes a stall typically also causes the aircraft’s flight controls to be less responsive.

Many aircraft have a stall sensor – typically, a horn – that keenly alerts the pilot that something bad is about to happen. If the condition persists and the aircraft edges closer to a stall, then the pilot will begin to feel a flutter in the aircraft’s controls. A little bit closer and the pilot – actually, everyone in the aircraft – will begin to feel a buffeting. Finally, the bottom falls out. If the aircraft is well above ground level, one has time to recover. If the aircraft is closer to the ground, best to call 9-1-1.

I bring this up because the economic data released over the past few months give me that flutter-in-the-controls feeling. The Federal Reserve’s Red Book data – which reports certain retail sales each week – show a clear slowing of year-over-year growth. Manufacturing – which only accounts for about 25 percent of economic output – has been right at break-even for a number of months. Business conditions in various regions of the country have clearly decayed. On the other hand, the housing market is a clear bright spot.

Federal Reserve Chairman Bernanke has stated that the U.S. economy will likely not enter into a recession – absent falling over the fiscal cliff. Of course, we all hope that he is right. But, back to the flying analogy, we see our airspeed slowing (economic indicators), we are already pretty close to the ground (recession), and our flight controls (policies) have been less responsive. They give me a feeling of a stalling economy.