The semiconductor industry has long been a driving force behind major advances in computing and electronics. Advances in the speed of processing power have enabled individuals and companies to create, access, and analyze data rapidly, improving individual and business efficiency and developing new markets within the national and global economies.

Executive Summary The semiconductor industry has long been a driving force behind majoradvances in computing and electronics. Advances in the speed ofprocessing power have enabled individuals and companies to create,access, and analyze data rapidly, improving individual and businessefficiency and developing new markets within the national and globaleconomies.Between 1996 and 2006, semiconductor manufacturers andsemiconductor technology research groups, including the NationalInstitute of Standards and Technology (NIST) and industry consortia,made significant investments in the technology infrastructure thatsupports the industry. The novel measurement equipment, software, andsystems they created accelerated the development of less expensive,higher quality semiconductors that enable the production of products asvaried as lighting systems and computers. Without these investments,the industry would have otherwise been less efficient, incurring higherdefect rates and greater costs, all of which would have been passedalong to consumers through higher prices, lower product quality, andslower processing speed.The goal of this study was to quantify the investment made by thesemiconductor industry, government, and consortia in the measurementinfrastructure between 1996 and 2006 and to compare that estimate withthe economic benefits firms accrued as a consequence. This study alsoanalyzed the trends catalyzing a broad-based, publicprivate strategy forimproving the industrys measurement capabilities and thereby theindustrys competitiveness in the global market.ES-1

Economic Impact of Measurement in the Semiconductor IndustryES.1 ES.1.1ES.1.2PROJECT SCOPE AND GOALSSince the 1970s, the semiconductor industry has focused on continuallysatisfying Moores Law, the prediction made by Gordon Moore,cofounder of Intel, that the number of transistors per chip in asemiconductor device would double every 2 years. As time progressed,however, achieving that benchmark became more challenging. By theearly 1990s, the semiconductor industry was largely focused on makingincremental advances in the quality of their products. It soon becameapparent that the way forward was rooted in exploiting the potential ofnanoscale measurement opportunities.Advances in measurement technology are often credited with helping theindustry keep up with Moores Law between 1996 and 2006, duringwhich time the number of possible transistors per logic chip increasedfrom 3.1 million in 1994 to 1.7 billion in 2005 (SIA, 2005). Severalindustry associations and research groups facilitated industrycollaboration through the National Technology Roadmap forSemiconductors (NTRS) in 1992. The NTRS focused on developingmeasurement technologies and standards that could leverage the entireU.S. semiconductor industry. Many factors helped the industry realize itsachievements, but without the strategic work done under the NTRS andits successors, the International Technology Roadmap forSemiconductors (ITRS), many of these achievements would not havebeen possible.Study BackgroundThe NIST Program Office sponsored this research for two reasons. As apurely retrospective investment analysis, NIST is interested in the impactthat advances in standardization and measurement technologies havehad on the semiconductor industry. This analysis is also important forboth NIST and companies throughout the industry as part of strategicplanning processes. Analyzing past impacts and future needs can helpthe industry and supporting bodies such as NIST focus attention andinvestment dollars on measurement issues projected to be mostsignificant and show substantive returns from past investments.Study ObjectivesThis study assessed the net benefits of improvements to themeasurement infrastructure supporting the semiconductor industrybetween 1996 and 2006. To this end, it focused on the incrementalES-2

Executive Summaryadoption of and associated investments in measurement technologiesand standards and the economic impact these developments have hadon the industry. Specifically, the main objectives of this study were tox describe and assess the economic roles of the technologyinfrastructure that supports the semiconductor industry,x quantify industry investments in measurement-relatedinfratechnologies over the past 10 years, and x quantify the collective benefit that advances in measurementover the past 10 years have had on the semiconductor industryin terms of growth and competitiveness.ES.2 MEASUREMENT ADVANCES IN THESEMICONDUCTOR SUPPLY CHAIN, 1996 TO2006Semiconductor materials are characterized by having intermediateelectrical conductivity properties between those of metallic conductorsand insulators. Semiconductor materials are used to fabricate electronicdevices, such as transistors and diodes (e.g., light-emitting diodes, orLEDs). These devices relay, switch, or amplify electricity and permitelectrical devices to function as intended. Producing semiconductor-based devices involves converting a variety of materials (e.g., gases,liquids, and metals) into either a single discrete device, with a singlefunction, or an integrated circuit, which combines many functions intoone semiconductor device.ES.2.1 The Semiconductor Supply ChainSemiconductor production requires firms to coordinate their R&D,manufacturing, data analysis, and marketing transactions efficiently.Figure ES-1 provides an overview of the industry stakeholderscollaboration through three process flows: (1) data and information,(2) software products, and (3) physical products (i.e., raw chemicals andmaterials and final products).For the purpose of this study, firms in the semiconductor supply chainwere categorized into stakeholder groups for which expenditures andbenefits were estimated:x basic and applied R&D organizationsx equipment and software suppliersES-3

Executive Summarykeep the study scope manageable while ensuring effective coverage ofsignificant impact categories. The categories were developed accordingto industry goals outlined in technology roadmaps that set cross-industryagendas to develop standards and generic technologies. The categoriesincluded traditional standard and measurement science as well asmeasurement-related areas like standard data formats and analyticalmeasures:x product design toolsx software standards and interoperabilityx calibration and standard test methodsx ex situ process control techniquesx in situ process control techniquesx quality assuranceFigure ES-2 provides several examples for each of the six categorieslisted above, as well as an overview of how the categories relate toindustry stakeholder groups. The figure focuses on the design andproduction process for a semiconductor chip; thus, it does not includesupporting organizations such as consortia or other groups involved inprocess R&D, though their research was integral to the industryssuccess in developing advanced measurement systems.ES.3 METHODOLOGY FOR QUANTIFYINGBENEFITS AND COSTSAs shown in Figure ES-3, industry-level economic impact estimates werecalculated by combining technology adoption curves with cost andbenefit metrics and secondary data. This report provides impactestimates for each measurement category as well as for eachstakeholder group. Information on technology adoption was collectedthrough an Internet survey to determine when firms began to incorporatetechnologies and how diffusion progressed over time.The data employed in this analysis were collected using three modes: in-person and telephone interviews, Internet-based surveys, and a reviewof secondary data sources. Ultimately, the companies that providedinformation represented 82% of the semiconductor industry, asmeasured by 2006 industry revenues.Respondents provided data on their spending on measurementimprovements and process changes adopted between 1996 and 2006ES-5

Executive SummaryFigure ES-3. Simplified Economic Impact Assessment StepsFTEs = full-time equivalents; NPV = net present value.within each of the six measurement categories. Respondents provideddetailed information on when technologies were adopted and how theirbudget for measurement improvements changed over the period ofanalysis. Company representatives and industry experts separatedexpenditure estimates into one-time expenditures on equipment,software, and installation and variable expenditures on calibrationmaterials and labor activities. It was assumed that the sum of costsreported by participating companies was representative of the industryscosts. Thus, industry-level costs were developed by extrapolatingparticipants data using their combined sales relative to industry totals.For the benefits components of this analysis, RTI focused on costsavings resulting from measurement improvements. The primaryproductivity and efficiency measures in the semiconductor industryinclude throughput, yield, scrap, bin sort, and the number of processiterations needed. Figure ES-4 illustrates the relationship between thesemeasures. Technical metrics for this analysis were changes in theaverage scrap and rework rates.ES-7

Economic Impact of Measurement in the Semiconductor IndustryFigure ES-4. Key Benefit Metrics: Scrap and ReworkProcessingStep(e.g., deposition,lithography, etch,ion implantation)Defects createdor carried overfrom previousstepsReworkbDefective waferssent back to bereprocessed andcorrectedScrapDefectivewafersdiscardedLot of 25wafersPotentially ~12,500chips, assuming 500dice per waferaYieldPercentage ofknown good die perwaferMetrologyStepDefects detectedEnd - of- LineTestingIndividual die (chip)tested forperformanceBin SortSeparation ofindividual chipsaccording to speedor other qualitymeasureAdditionalprocessingandmetrologystepsMeasures of Productivity Used in Wafer ProcessingaThe number of dice per wafer varies greatly depending on the wafers diameter and the size of the chips to beproduced. Some designs may have only 40 dice per wafer, while others have more than 500.bSome wafers are also returned from customers (usually in large batches) and in some cases are reworked or sentback through processing to be corrected.Respondents were asked to identify the level of sales that correspondedto the expenditure data they provided. Aggregated expenditures weredivided by respondents aggregated revenues to derive the averageexpenditure per unit of revenue. Because it was known whichstakeholder group and technology area participants were responding, itwas possible to estimate total expenditures for those groups. It wasassumed that the average per unit of revenue estimate wasrepresentative of an average stakeholder and thus was multiplied by totalstakeholder-level revenues to estimate expenditures. Total industryexpenditures were the sum of all stakeholder group estimates. Thissame procedure was used to extrapolate benefits estimates from thesurvey response panel to the industry.ES.4 ECONOMIC COSTS AND BENEFITS FROMMEASUREMENT IMPROVEMENTSFirms decide to make new investments based on an expected rate ofreturn, and investments in measurement standards, equipment, andES-8

Executive Summaryprocess improvements are no different. In general, all benefits frominvestments in measurement in the semiconductor industry can bethought of as achieving lower costs of production, better products, andaccelerated time to market. While expenditures were incurred by allstakeholders, front-end and back-end firms observed the most easilyquantifiable positive rate of return on their investments in measurementimprovements.As described throughout this report, the semiconductor industrycollaborated extensively, particularly over the past 10 to 15 years as theyworked to increase product quality through technology innovation andstandardization. In some cases, firms that provided inputs to front-endand back-end processing firms were motivated more by customer andindustry pressure than the results of financial analyses (e.g., return oninvestment calculations) in determining whether an investment should bemade. These suppliers have made investments primarily to remaincompetitive; in other words, they estimated a return on investment in theform of anticipated future sales rather than cost savings. Thus, anyresulting cost savings are merely an added benefit. In contrast, front-endand back-end firms have reaped substantive, relatively easilyquantifiable positive returns on their investments, which are quantified inthis analysis.In our interviews, study participants described significant cost savingsfrom two main advancesimproved yields (decreased scrap) andthroughput (decreased rework)based on the industrys investments inmeasurement between 1996 and 2006.ES.4.1 Measurement Improvements ExpendituresMeasurement expenditures differed significantly by stakeholder groupand measurement category (see Table ES-1). Front-end processingfirms incurred the majority of expenditures, with back-end firms spendingthe second most. Spending on measurement categories showed thatquality assurance, ex situ process control, and in situ process controlrepresent approximately half of total spending.ES-9

Economic Impact of Measurement in the Semiconductor IndustryTable ES-3. Performance Metrics for Investments in Measurement, 19962011Benefits (2006 millions) $51,279Costs (2006 millions) $12,348Net benefits (2006 millions) $38,931NPV of net benefits (2006 millions)a$17,221Benefit-to-cost ratio 3.3Internal rate of return 67%aNPV is discounted to 1996 using a 7% annual discount rate.Source: RTI estimates.ES.5 SUMMARY REMARKSIt is essential that investment in and collaboration on standards andtechnology development and on common goal-setting efforts continue.To that end, the industry requires that NIST play a significant role. Pastinvestments in semiconductor measurement standards and technologieshave shown themselves to be very beneficial to both the industry andbusinesses and consumers. Moving forward, firms in the industry willcontinue their private R&D efforts to shrink feature size, increase wafersize, evaluate and research new materials, and adopt more advancedprocessing techniques. In the coming years, the industry will continue towork on these four areas, but experts and stakeholders see many areaswhere problems of measurement exist and where technologies andstandards will be needed to prevent technical roadblocks.In particular, stakeholders and experts mentioned measurement andstandards needs in several key technical areas:x new standards for measuring features lengths at 32 nmx new techniques for controlling radio-frequency electromagneticenergy and high-frequency magnetic fieldsx improved mask measurement standardsx improved chemical and materials standards and processesx new calibration and standard test methodsx better inoperability standardsES-12

1Introduction The semiconductor industry has long been a driving force behind majoradvances in computing and electronics. Advances in the speed ofprocessing power have enabled individuals and companies to create,access, and analyze data rapidly, improving individual and businessefficiency and developing new markets within the national and globaleconomies.Between 1996 and 2006, semiconductor manufacturers andsemiconductor technology research groups, including the NationalInstitute of Standards and Technology (NIST) and industry consortia,made significant investments in technology infrastructure supporting theindustry. The technology infrastructure enables firms to enhance designand production processes that optimize efficiency and effectiveness.Among the infrastructure components in which organizations investedwere new measurement systems encompassing equipment, software,and methods. These systems includedx measurement tools and techniques;x standards for measuring materials, chemicals, and operational ormaintenance processes; andx interoperability standards.The novel systems they created accelerated the development of lessexpensive, higher quality semiconductors that enable products as variedas lighting systems and computers. Without these investments, theindustry would have otherwise been less efficient, incurring higher defectrates and greater costs, all of which would have been passed along toconsumers in terms of higher price, lower quality, or slower processingspeed.1-1

Economic Impact of Measurement in the Semiconductor IndustryThe goal of this study, funded by the NIST Program Office, was toquantify the investment made by the semiconductor industry,government, and consortia in the measurement infrastructure between1996 and 2006 and to compare that estimate with the economic benefitsfirms accrued as a consequence. This study also analyzed the trendscatalyzing a broad-based, publicprivate strategy for improving theindustrys measurement capabilities and thereby the industryscompetitiveness in the global market.1.1 THE IMPORTANCE OF MEASUREMENT INTHE SEMICONDUCTOR INDUSTRYThe quality and productivity advances experienced by the semiconductorindustry over the past few decades would not have been possible withoutthe measurement infrastructure that supports it. Since the 1970s, thesemiconductor industry has focused on continually satisfying MooresLaw, the prediction made by Gordon Moore, cofounder of Intel, that thenumber of transistors per chip in a semiconductor device would doubleevery 2 years. As time progressed, however, achieving that benchmarkbecame more challenging. By the early 1990s, the semiconductorindustry was largely focused on making incremental advances in thequality of their products. It soon became readily apparent that the wayforward was rooted in exploiting the potential of nanoscale measurementopportunities.The U.S. government has supported the industry through technologyinnovation and development assistance since its emergence in thesecond half of the 20thcentury. Its continued growth and health remainsa federal priority, and federal organizations like NIST sponsorsemiconductor research programs. Several industry associations andresearch groups have been established to guide cross-industry planningand sponsor research into technologies of benefit to the entire industry.Among the groups that currently support standardization and enrichmentof the technology infrastructure arex NIST,x Semiconductor Manufacturing Technology (SEMATECH),11SEMATECH, a consortium of semiconductor manufacturers, formed in 1987 to support theU.S. semiconductor industrys efforts to remain globally competitive. Funding forSEMATECH originally came from both U.S. government and member companies. Theorganization has grown significantly and is now funded by and focused on the globalsemiconductor industry.1-2

Chapter 1  Introductionx Semiconductor Equipment and Materials Institute (SEMI),2x Semiconductor Industry Association (SIA),3andx Semiconductor Research Corporation (SRC).4These organizations facilitated the collaboration of industry stakeholdersthrough a variety of mechanisms, including industry roadmaps. Industryroadmaps are strategy documents that establish consensus views onkey issues facing stakeholders. They are often used to articulatesystemic issues in an industry and set a course for achieving industry-wide objectives. Industry roadmaps advocated developing the standardsand measurement technologies needed to maintain Moores Law.The first National Technology Roadmap for Semiconductors (NTRS) wasdeveloped in 1992 and was updated twice over the next 5 years.Supported primarily by SIA, NIST, and SEMATECH, the NTRS focusedon developing measurement technologies and standards that could beleveraged by the entire U.S. semiconductor industry. The effort becamemore global in 1997, taking on the name International TechnologyRoadmap for Semiconductors (ITRS), and began to develop roadmapsevery 2 years with an update in the intervening years.Advances in measurement technology are often credited with helping theindustry keep up with Moores Law between 1996 and 2006, duringwhich time the number of possible transistors per logic chip increasedfrom 3.1 million in 1994 to 1.7 billion in 2005 (SIA, 2005). Many factorshave helped the industry realize such achievements, most notably theuse of significant improvements in data processing and analysiscapabilities. However, without the strategic work of ITRS collaboratorsand, more specifically, the standards and measurement investmentsmade by NIST, consortia, universities, and industry stakeholders, thisachievement would not have been possible.1.2 PROJECT SCOPE AND GOALSThe NIST Program Office sponsored this research for two reasons. As apurely retrospective investment analysis, NIST is interested in the impactthat advances in measurement infratechnologies, generic technologies,2SEMI was originally formed in 1970 as a trade association for the semiconductorequipment market. Since the mid-1970s, it has played a vital role in developingstandards used by the entire semiconductor industry.3SIA is the principal U.S. manufacturers trade association for the semiconductor industry. Itwas founded in 1977 and has 95 members.4SRC is a global research consortium founded in 1982 that administers a broad universityresearch program to advance semiconductor technologies.1-3

Economic Impact of Measurement in the Semiconductor Industryand associated standards have had on the semiconductor industry.5Although many of its research programs support semiconductorresearch, design, and production activities, two key NIST programs aredevoted to semiconductors:x Semiconductor Electronics Division (SED). SED supportsgovernment, industry, and academic stakeholders by providingessential technology infrastructure, including measurement,physical standards, supporting data and technology, and generictechnology. The division also communicates research resultsand practices to the industry.x Office of Microelectronics Programs (OMP). OMP offers expertsupport to NIST and the industry on current and futuremeasurement needs of the industry; their expertise includes (butis not limited to) the following types of measurement: lithography,critical dimension and overlay, front-end processing, interconnectand packaging, and back-end processing. They facilitateinteractions within the industry and provide expert support tomanufacturers.This analysis is also important for both NIST and companies throughoutthe industry as part of their joint strategic planning process. Analyzingpast impacts and future needs can help the industry and supportingbodies such as NIST focus attention and investment dollars onmeasurement issues projected to be most significant and to showsubstantive returns from past investments.This section begins by defining and distinguishing between two termsthat are critical to conceptualizing the studys scope and major goals:measurement and metrology.1.2.1 Measurement versus MetrologyThis study focused on the impact of investments in measurementtechnologies and standards implemented in the semiconductor industrybetween 1996 and 2006. In the industry, the term "metrology" is oftenused to describe the adoption and use of measurement equipment formanufacturing or quality assurance activities. This study uses the slightlybroader term of measurement to include what the industry callsmetrology plusx software used to automate and simplify design activities (thatmust be based on precise measurement data),5See Tassey (2005) for a discussion of generic technologies and infratechnologies thatsupport industry.1-4

Chapter 1  Introductionx standard reference materials (SRMs) used to ensure consistency(and sometimes accuracy) of chemical and materialsmeasurements within and across companies,x interoperability standards that enable efficient sharing of designand process flow data between equipment and businesspartners, andx calibration and testing standards used to certify that equipmentand products at each stage have been measured adequately.Measurement in this study, therefore, includes measurement standardsand a suite of technologies and tools that enable effective use of thosestandards.1.2.2 Important Project Scope ParametersTwo project limitations are important to note. First, the studys focus wason investment activities and associated benefits within the United States.However, the semiconductor industry is global and most U.S.semiconductor companies have offices, research and development(R&D), and manufacturing facilities outside the United States.6Everyeffort was made to ensure that survey and interview participantsresponded only for their U.S. facilities; however, it is possible that costsand benefits accruing to entities outside the United States were includedinadvertently. Expert interviews were similarly focused on U.S. adoptionand use of measurement standards and technologies.Second, this study did not attempt to quantify the impact of investmentsin measurement on improvements in product quality or subsequentbenefits flowing to businesses and consumers who use products withhigher quality semiconductors. Quantifying consumer benefits wouldhave required resources far beyond those allocated to this study;therefore, consumer benefits were excluded from the analysis.1.2.3 Key Study ObjectivesThis study assessed the net benefits of improvements to themeasurement infrastructure supporting the semiconductor industrybetween 1996 and 2006. To this end, it focuses on the incrementaladoption of and associated investments in measurement technologies6For example, Intels Copy Exactly strategy involves the development of processes in oneregion (e.g., the United States) and the simultaneous introduction of the lessonslearned in the United States, Ireland, and Israel (see http://news.com.com/Intel+to+expand+Irish+manufacturing+facilities/2100-1006_3-5216309.html).1-5

Economic Impact of Measurement in the Semiconductor Industryand standards and the economic impact these developments have hadon the industry.7Specifically, the main objectives of this study were tox describe and assess the economic roles of the technologyinfrastructure that supports the semiconductor industry,x quantify industry investments in measurement-relatedtechnologies and systems between 1996 and 2006, and x quantify the collective benefit that advances in measurementbetween 1996 and 2006 have had on the semiconductor industryin terms of growth and competitiveness.In addition, this study aimed to gather information on the future trendsand needs of the industry and to propose potential roles for NIST tosupport the industry effectively.1.3 REPORT ORGANIZATIONThe remainder of this report is organized as follows:x Chapter 2 discusses the process flow of the semiconductorindustry and presents a taxonomy of major stakeholder groupsand measurement categories.x Chapter 3 presents a detailed analysis of the major advances inmeasurement technologies and standards between 1996 and2006. A more detailed version of this chapter with an engineeringdiscussion of technical advances is included as Appendix A.x Chapter 4 explains the methodology used to estimate theadoption of new measurement technologies and standards andquantify costs and benefits.x Chapter 5 presents the analysis results for investments made inmeasurement infrastructure between 1996 and 2006. It alsoincludes survey data on the extent to which new measurementtechnologies were adopted during that period.x Chapter 6 presents the analysis results for economic benefits.x Chapter 7 concludes this report with a summary of findings andrecommendations for future research and opportunities for NIST.7Note that all references to measurement expenditures in this report refer to expenditureson new technologies and standards implemented between 1996 and 2006, as opposedto fixed and variable costs on older generation technology and standards.1-6

2Overview of theSemiconductorIndustryThis chapter provides an overview of the role of semiconductors, or chipsin the industry vernacular, and describes the basic steps in thesemiconductor manufacturing process. In a world of devices reliant onelectricity, semiconductors are the workhorses that take electric voltageand engender device function. Semiconductors are the tiny devices,usually made of silicon and densely packed with transistors, that relay,switch, or amplify electricity and permit electrical devices to function asintended.Producing semiconductors involves converting a variety of materials(e.g., gases, liquids, and metals) into either a single discrete device, witha single function, or an integrated circuit, which combines manydevices into one semiconductor device. Integrated circuits, or ICs,include microprocessors, which control everyday products such asmicrowave ovens and more advanced products such as cellular phonesand computers. The steps involved in manufacturing a semiconductorare complex, and the technologies involved change rapidly to enable thedevelopment of more advanced products.Understanding the measurement improvements made between 1996and 2006 first requires an introduction to key terminology, anunderstanding of how semiconductors are made, and an overview of whymeasurement is critical in an industry in which tolerances aredenominated in very small measurements (e.g., nanometers). Thischapter also identifies the major stakeholder groups in the industry andprovides a taxonomy for understanding the major categories ofmeasurement technologies and standards. Chapter 3 delves into themeasurement advances for which development costs were quantifiedand economic benefits were estimated.2-1

Economic Impact of Measurement in the Semiconductor Industry2.1 ROLE OF SEMICONDUCTORSThe influence of the semiconductor industry increased dramaticallybetween 1996 and 2006. New, ever more powerful semiconductordevices catalyzed incredible growth in the computer, consumerelectronics, and Internet industries. Consumers benefited from theintroduction of novel electronic products as diverse as mp3 players,advanced health care technologies, digital imaging technologies, newmeans (i.e., the Internet) by which to search for and buy goods, andmore readily available ways to communicate with others. Businessesbenefited from new data collection and analysis capabilities that enabledrobust productivity analysis, error analysis, and market segmentation andforecasting. Advanced communications tools, Internet technologies, andmobile computing power enable employees to work more efficiently.8Semiconductors are most often thought of as being intended for dataprocessing applications, such as microprocessors and memory, becausethe largest and most well-known American manufacturers, Intel andTexas Instruments, dominate that market. But semiconductors can befound in irons and alarm clocks, radios, and automobile taillights. Asdevices become more sophisticated, the semiconductors enabling thembecome more sophisticated as well. The same devices that onceenabled computers are now found in cell phones, digital cameras, andvideo game consoles. Table 2-1 provides an overview of different typesof semiconductor devices and their common applications.Worldwide sales of semiconductor devices increased from $132 billion in1996 to $248 billion in 2006 (SIA, 2006). And between 2007 and 2010,the semiconductor industry is projected to grow almost 8% annually(Gordon, 2006).Memory and microprocessors account for almost half of allsemiconductor sales (42%), application-specific devices (e.g., for mobilephones and digital cameras) account for 33%, and the remaining 25% isa mixture of device types. The research group Gartner projects that by2010 application-specific products will account for more than half of totalindustry revenue (Rieppo, 2005).8Several recent studies provide empirical evidence that significant positive returns to ITinvestment can be consistently achieved in the manufacturing and service sectors(Bharadwaj, Bharadwaj, and Konsynski, 1999; Bresnahan, Brynjolfsson, and Hitt, 2002;Brynjolfsson and Hitt, 1996; Dewan and Min, 1997; and Lichtenberg, 1995).2-2

Chapter 2  Overview of the Semiconductor IndustrySuppliers use this information tox produce the necessary equipment to create the device as well asthe chemicals and materials,x develop the necessary software packages to enable chip designand analysis of production facility operations,x design the exact physical characteristics of the new device andhow it will be produced, andx ensure the necessary chemicals and materials are used and areprovided to the correct specificity.Beginning with raw materials and a design, manufacturers invest in thenecessary production equipment and software to turn their raw materialsand designs into chips. Production is extraordinarily capital intensivebecause humans cannot manually produce semiconductors at the scaleor precision demanded. Instead, robots and advanced photolithographytechnologies are combined in an automated environment monitored inreal time by computing systems overseen by technicians. These chipsare then turned over to test and assembly firms to create a final productthat is then put into electronic products for sale to consumers orbusinesses.Semiconductor production occurs in two stages. First, a manufactureruses the designs provided to develop the necessary production line,including the production and measurement equipment. A multiple-stepsequence of photographic and chemical processing tasks is followed tocreate electronic circuits on a wafera round flat slice of puresemiconducting material, most commonly silicon. In the most advancedmanufacturing or fabrication plants (often referred to as fabs), morethan a billion transistors are created on one wafer. The wafer fabricationprocess is the most expensive and complex part of developing asemiconductor device (see the textbox on the next page for more detailon this process).These chips are then sent to the second stage called package andtesting (or assembly and testing). The properties of the circuits oneach wafer are tested, and then it is cut into individual chips. Each chipis packaged, usually in plastic or ceramic components, by connecting thechip to metal (usually gold) pins on the package so that it can beconnected to the product in which it will be used.This two-stage manufacturing process, beginning with the waferfabrication and ending with a packaged chip ready to be shipped, takes2-5

Wafer FabricationEconomic Impact of Measurement in the Semiconductor IndustryBare wafers are created by chemical and materials suppliers and delivered as inputs to semiconductormanufacturers in addition to a variety of additional chemicals, gases, and metals. The manufacturingprocess consists of the following steps, the order of which may vary by plant and by the type of devicebeing produced:1. Photolithography: This process involves burning a patternthe circuit designinto a light-sensitive layer that is deposited on top of the wafer substrate (e.g., silicon). Light is used totransfer the desired pattern through a template to this light-sensitive chemical on the substrate.2. Etching: The final pattern is engraved onto the wafer substrate either by a chemical process(e.g., acid etching) or a physical process (e.g., ion beam etching). To enable contact with thesubstrate material when multiple layers are created, sometimes specific chemicals are used tocut away at particular points of specific layers to create holes to enable electrical connection.3. Deposition: During this process, materials are placed on the wafer, frequently in a special patternthat is shaped by a mask layer. In chemical vapor deposition, the wafer is exposed to one or morevolatile chemical compounds that reacts or decomposes on the wafer surface. This processhelps to create high-purity, high-performance solid materials.4. Layering: Additional patterned layers are often added on top of the wafer base. Separated byglass (e.g., SiO2) or low-k dielectric insulators, these additional layers, created by repeating Steps1 through 3, enable additional circuitry to fit in the same horizontal space.5. Doping: An impurity element is added to a semiconductor in low concentration to alter its opticaland electrical properties, giving the semiconductor either a positive or negative charge.6. Electroplating: A conducting material (usually copper) can be electroplated on the entire wafersurface. Electroplated copper can also be used for the wiring on a chip.7. Polishing: An acidic viscous chemical can be used to planarize the wafer, sometimes called chemical-mechanical polishing or electropolishing. 8. Cleaning: Various cleaning steps are performed throughout the wafer fabrication process.Cleaning steps rely on high-purity chemicals, and ultra-pure water is most commonly used incleaning and rinsing operations. Other chemicals that may be used, depending on the nature ofthe surface to be cleaned, include plasmas, liquid acid and bases, and super critical carbondioxide.9. Annealing: The wafer is sometimes baked at high temperatures (> 300oC) to improve theperformance of semiconductors by bonding multiple layers together or spreading dopants throughthe material to a known thickness, a process referred to as diffusion.See http://www.sematech.org/corporate/news/mfgproc/mfgproc.htm for an illustration of thismanufacturing process.from 6 to 8 weeks. This process can cost as much as $20 to $30 for anadvanced microprocessor available today (e.g., a 64-bit Athlon) or aslittle as less than $0.01 for a discrete semiconductor device that performsa very simple logic function.2-6

Chapter 2  Overview of the Semiconductor Industry2.3 STAKEHOLDERS IN THE SEMICONDUCTORINDUSTRYSemiconductor manufacturing involves a wide variety of organizationswith technical expertise ranging from basic chemistry and softwaredevelopment to sensors and process control systems. For the purpose ofthis study, we define the semiconductor supply chain in terms of thefollowing stakeholder groups:x basic and applied R&D organizationsx equipment suppliersx software suppliersx product designers (referred to as IC designers in this studysince the vast majority of designers create IC designs)x chemical and materials suppliersx front-end processing facilities (wafer fabrication facilities)x back-end processing facilities (packaging, assembly, and testplants)As shown in Figure 2-1, the flow of information and material productsbegins with public and private R&D organizations. This group iscomposed of public institutions, universities, private laboratories (usuallyowned by device manufacturers), and publicprivate partnerships suchas NIST, SEMATECH, SEMI, SIA, and SRC. These organizationsconduct basic research and help determine industry standards thatimprove the efficiency of the semiconductor supply chain, in particularthe manufacturing process. The knowledge and skills gained from basicresearch flow to suppliers of measurement equipment and softwaretheprimary producers of measurement products.Equipment and software suppliers develop the tools necessary for therest of the supply chain to operate. Using technologies developed byR&D organizations and within the supply chain, equipment suppliersproduce both ex situ (off the production line) equipment and in situ (inprocess). Software suppliers develop new applications that helpstreamline the development of chip designs and integrate newtechnological developments into these applications as they aredeveloped. These two groups help support all subsequent stakeholdergroups.The next flow of information and measurement hardware and software isthrough IC designers. Many IC designers are part of manufacturing firms(e.g., Intel and Advanced Micro Devices have in house IC design2-7

Economic Impact of Measurement in the Semiconductor Industrydivisions), although some operate as fabless firms that outsource themanufacturing of the chips they design and sell. Measurementimprovements enable this group to design higher quality chips with fewerdefects at faster speeds; however, these designers must also spendlabor resources on measurement-related R&D and must incurexpenditures for installing equipment and software. IC design firms thengive specifications for production inputs to chemical and materialssuppliers. This group of raw and processed materials suppliers likelyincurs some cost for installing measurement products and R&D butreceives both productivity and quality benefits.Chemical and materials suppliers, design firms, and equipment andsoftware suppliers together provide the inputs to front-end and back-endprocessing firms. These firms are the major consumers of allmeasurement-related capital and information in the semiconductorsupply chain. These two groups expend labor resources for R&D andinstallation of measurement equipment and software that they mustpurchase; however, they receive benefits of both increased productivityand product quality. Of note, some processing firms outsource certainmeasurement analysis activities to independent analytical firms; thus,these firms are part of the supply chain, incurring R&D and installationexpenditures, and derive benefits from measurement improvements withincreased productivity.The U.S. supply chain stakeholder revenues are listed in Table 2-2 for1996 and 2006. Front-end processing firms represent more than 70% ofthe industry with 2006 revenues of approximately $88 billion, whileequipment manufacturers are the second largest group with around 15%of the industry or $19 billion in 2006 revenues.2.4 MEASUREMENT CATEGORIES: A TAXONOMYEach of the main semiconductor stakeholders relies on a suite ofinterrelated measurement capabilities. This study grouped measurementimprovements in the semiconductor industry into six major categories:x product design toolsx software standards and interoperabilityx calibration and standard test methodsx ex situ process control techniquesx in situ process control techniquesx quality assurance (QA)2-8

Chapter 2  Overview of the Semiconductor IndustryTable 2-2. U.S. Semiconductor Revenue by Stakeholder Group, 1996 and 20061996 Revenue 2006 RevenueStakeholder Group (millions) (millions) % ChangeIC design firms $3,177 $3,033 í4.8%Chemical/materials suppliers $1,338 $1,408 5.0%Equipment suppliers $17,853 $18,787 5.0%Front-end processing firms $85,000 $88,145 3.6%Back-end processing firms $7,566 $7,962 5.0%Software suppliers $3,872 $4,075 5.0%Source: RTI estimates based on U.S. Census Manufacturing Industry Series data, Gartner, and conversations withindustry analysts. Note: All estimates are in nominal dollars.Product design tools include a variety of software applications that areused by semiconductor device and IC design firms to quickly andaccurately design the structure and characteristics of a new device type.This category of software applications, often referred to as electronicdesign for automation (EDA) tools, includes software applications usedto (1) develop the design of a device, (2) help to prevent and correct forproduction errors, (3) run simulations of device and process functionality,and (4) manage the product life cycle. Without these tools, the complexdevices (or chips) produced between 1996 and 2006 could not havebeen designed; creating such designs by hand would have beenextremely time consuming and error prone.Software standards and interoperability encompasses the use ofstandard languages by which software applications can communicatemore easily with each other as well as with hardware-based languages.Two primary types are verification languages and data formats.Verification languages enable the simulation of circuit designs whileavoiding the cost of building and testing physical prototypes of early-stage designs. Data formats include those for graphics used to specifymodels of the surface characteristics for components manufactured inthe production process. Although the underlying simulation capabilitiescould have been achieved in the absence of these standards, theresulting bottlenecks to effective communication would likely havedelayed or perhaps precluded the development of new devices.Calibration and standard test methods increase the precision andaccuracy of operations, In addition to reducing rework and scrap costs2-9

Economic Impact of Measurement in the Semiconductor Industryassociated with less accurate measurement, calibration and standardtest methods provide a basis for measurements taken anywhere in theworld to be compared with confidence. This is critical to ensuring thatparts manufactured in one part of the world meet the same performancespecifications globally.Ex situ process control technologies can essentially be defined asmeasurements taken on wafer but not on the production line.Essentially, ex situ equipment is used to take measurements away fromthe processing equipment, often in a centralized location. Although theex situ process control area is very broad, the characteristics and trendscan be grouped into measuring the two-dimensional components of awafer (often called critical dimension [CD] measurements) andmeasuring the three-dimensional components of the wafer (oftenreferred to in this context as a thin film). Characteristics such asthickness, chemical composition, and structure are essential to theoperation of a semiconductor device as designed.In situ process control technology allows real-time, within-processcontrol. As opposed to ex situ technology, which is housed in separateequipment and requires that semiconductor components be transportedto their location, in situ measurements can be taken much more quicklyand require less coordination. By taking measurements in real time,adjustments can be made more quickly (before more wafers havecontinued through production). In situ process control directly saves timeand money when high rates of production are involved.QA is defined in this study as the methods manufacturers use to ensurethat their finished products meet their customers specifications. Theintent of QA is to certify a product or material prior to providing it to thenext stage in the value chain as well as to test incoming materials.Changes in QA techniques result from new technology developmentsthat allow earlier assessments of process parameters and faster andmore effective process control responses.2-10

Advances inMeasurement in theSemiconductor3IndustryThis study grouped measurement improvements in the semiconductorindustry into six major categories:x product design toolsx software standards and interoperabilityx calibration and standard test methodsx ex situ process control techniquesx in situ process control techniquesx quality assuranceMany of these measurement categories are based on industry goalsdeveloped as part of U.S. and international technology. However, thecategories included in this study were broadened to accommodateadditional technology areas.Figure 3-1 provides several examples for each of the six categories listedabove, as well as an overview of how the categories relate to industrystakeholder groups. The figure focuses on the design and productionprocess for a semiconductor chip; thus, it does not include supportingorganizations such as consortia or other groups involved in processR&D. However, industry consortia and research organizations play animportant role in developing the measurement infrastructure. Theirinvestments are discussed in the quantitative analysis outlined inChapter 4 and quantified in Chapter 5.The lines between some infrastructure categories blur. As Figure 3-1shows, with the exception of IC design, stakeholder groups rely on awide range of measurement-related infratechnologies. For example,front-end processing firms use software standards, physical standards,3-1

Chapter 3  Advances in Measurement in the Semiconductor Industryex situ and in situ process control infratechnologies, and QAinfratechnologies.This chapter begins with a discussion of the need for new measurementtechnologies and standards in the early 1990s and describes severalimportant industry roadmaps established by industry consortia toimprove best practices in the industry. Next, the chapter discusses theorigins of key infratechnology improvements in each measurement