To paraphrase AFL grand final ''entertainment'' icon Meatloaf, three out of four ain't bad.

All year it looked a fait accompli that Melbourne, South Sydney, the Roosters and Manly would be the last four teams standing. Only the most ardent Novocastrian would have been confident about the Knights being in one of the two grand final qualifiers but here they are and they couldn't deserve it more after beating the Bulldogs and Storm on the road.

Souths v Manly, Roosters v Knights. All signs point to a Rabbitohs-Roosters grand final – a conspiracy theorist's wet dream – based on form but don't write off the two underdogs, especially Manly, who are the most experienced team in these big end-of-season games left in the race now that Melbourne have been filed in the gooooneski report.

1. Roosters (last week 1): They don't have many injury concerns so the week off may be a disadvantage. The NRL's best defence will be hard for Newcastle to crack and out wide the Roosters look like they've got the edge in pace and size as well.

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2. Rabbitohs (2): If the NRL has any headstrong referees who are not in the foetal position rocking back and forth in the corner after the criticism they've copped this year, then they need to be at ANZ Stadium on Friday night because the Souths-Manly match has the potential to be a fiery one. There is still plenty of lingering tension from Jeff Lima's crocodile roll tackle on Anthony Watmough. As well as those two, there are several hotheads in each side, including four fellows from the north of England.

3. Sea Eagles (3): Two gruelling matches back to back will leave Manly either battle hardened or out of gas. We probably won't find out until the last 20 minutes of Friday's match. Their effort to repel Cronulla last Friday was a combination of a little good fortune but a lot of grit and a crucial dash of Jamie Lyon class out wide.

4. Knights (6): All those megabuck bonuses in supercoach Bennett's contract. It seemed like a good idea for Nathan Tinkler at the time. Back then he was swimming in cash. Newcastle better sell a lot of souvenir finals T-shirts. They are this year's ''they've got nothing to lose'' finals team. Those runs usually end abruptly when the reality of playing a better side clicks in. They can't afford to alter their game plan and throw caution to the wind against the Roosters but they need everything to go their way to get the better of the minor premiers' rock-solid defensive line.

5. Storm (4): Father Time catches up with everybody and the simple fact is that Melbourne's best three players - Cameron Smith, Billy Slater and Cooper Cronk – are no longer spring chickens. Looking ahead to 2014, supercoach Bellamy has to yet again reinvigorate the roster like he's done many times previously with some fresh blood.

6. Sharks (5): If it wasn't for the matter of the ASADA investigation, the future has rarely looked better for Cronulla with a strong roster which will only get better next year. Most of the 11 players in ASADA's firing line are not crucial to their success in 2014 but a raft of suspensions would still cripple the club

9 comments so far

Can there be an NRL coach of the year if noone is at the stadium to see it???

(Channel 9 wants it that way)

Commenter

jg

Location

Canberra

Date and time

September 23, 2013, 7:42PM

I have to say that Cameron Smith, who is a superb player, was probably the least influential I have seen him be for a long time in recent weeks.

I'm don't know if he was injured or if time is cartching up with him, but if I'm not sure if Brisbane Broncos should be looking to offer him the world to move up there in 2015.

Souths must be feelin a wee bit uneasy facing the prospect of a fired up Manly

Manly have gotta have plenty busted troops after 2 brutal games in 2 weeks.

The Knights were lucky to sneak a victory over Melb......Scott,Buderus and Roberts will be playing wounded on Sat nite

@ the melb post match press conference, you could see that the grim reality of the Storm's fall had hit Coach bellamy like a ton of bricks......its gunna be hard to bring this team back up in 2014.

Gallen trotted out a long boring litany of excuses for Cronulla's defeat...the fact remains that the Sharks haven't won a comp in 45 years.....and they will never win one while Flanagan is coaching the joint

Commenter

CYRIL q SNODGASS

Location

Bondi Junction

Date and time

September 23, 2013, 11:56PM

@Cyrildidn't you see belly-aches reaction after losing to the warriors in 2011? how did he recover from that? with another premiership win.and gallen wasn't the one laying out all the excuses post match - that was flanagan. manly do have plenty of sore players and they will need to stop pushing the passes and play pressure football for the full 80mins (which is going to be hard after those last two games) to beat the bunnies - or get a good dose of luck.

Commenter

interested observer

Location

sydney

Date and time

September 24, 2013, 8:41AM

It's my understanding (correct me if I'm wrong) that Bennett's bonuses are a direct arrangement between him and Tinkler. Nothing to do with HSG who own the Knights. It may be semantics but I don't think Bennett's cash is coming out of T-shirt sales. Hopefully not anyway because with the Tink going broke the club may well need those T-shirt sales as it looks like the cash injections to needed keep most NRL clubs afloat will have dried up.

One of the many challenges for the NRL in has got to be finding a business model that makes all clubs financially viable ASAP, not just the Broncos. Surely a part of the solution to this problem has to be moving clubs out of Sydney to increase crowds in that market and take advantage of other markets.

Commenter

Seano

Date and time

September 24, 2013, 7:49AM

Crowds will never recover while TV determines the kickoff times. Big crowds turn out for afternoon games as used to be normal. Night games suit TV, so they have priority.

Commenter

Perthfornow

Date and time

September 24, 2013, 2:14PM

perthfornow has hit the nail on the head. I'd love to take my 10 year old son to some games, but the nightime kickoff (generally after 8:00 pm) means that most times we'd be home around midnight.Bring back Sunday arvo footy!

Commenter

Phil J.

Location

Seaforth

Date and time

September 24, 2013, 7:01PM

Absolutely correct. Crowds will be up when we go back to afternoon games. So I don't know why crowds are even mentioned any more. The corporatisation of the game including parachuting senior executives from the unattached list into the game will further alienate the fans and remove the sport and entrench the business model.

Commenter

RTP.

Location

Sawtell

Date and time

September 25, 2013, 12:59PM

Many thanks to Pertfornow and Phil J. Night matches are the pits!Would love to take the kids and wife to Saturday or Sunday (preferred) afternoon RL matches. Am a Bunnies supporter and go with 3 mates to every match . Good way to keep in touch with the boys but it would be better with the mates and families! The NRL has no idea on how to run the game!

24 Sep
While Wayne Bennett has been credited for reviving Willie Mason's career, Newcastle insiders have revealed the veteran forward's role in turning around the Knights' fortunes when they were struggling under their new coach.