Alabama

Five things Alabama must do to win at Florida

View full sizeAlabama Guard Trevor Releford (12) gets loose for two on a fast break during the Crimson Tide's NCAA SEC basketball game with the Texas A&M Aggies, Saturday, January 19, 2013, at Coleman Coliseum in Tuscaloosa, Ala. Alabama won a wild one 50-49 to go to 3-1 in the SEC. (AL.com/Vasha Hunt)

TUSCALOOSA, Alabama – Despite barely being on the NCAA tournament bubble, the Alabama basketball team can win the Southeastern Conference championship if its wins its last three regular-season games.

The Big One is an 11 a.m. CST game Saturday at No. 8 Florida (ESPN). The Gators (22-5, 12-3 SEC) are in first place in the league. Alabama (19-9, 11-4) is tied with Kentucky for second place. The Crimson Tide defeated the Wildcats in January.

The Gators seem healthy, as three key reserves – forwards Will Yeguete and Casey Prather and guard Michael Frazier – are expected to play. Yeguete has been out since Feb. 8, when he had minor knee surgery. Frazier sat out a loss Tuesday at Tennessee with a concussion. Prather suffered a gash to his head late in the Tennessee game but showed no concussion symptoms the next day. He missed Florida’s first four games because of two preseason concussions. All three players are practicing.

What must Alabama do to win this showdown?

Here are five things. …

1. The 1-2 punch

Combo guards Trevor Releford (15.6 ppg) and Trevor Lacey (11.9 ppg) are Alabama’s leading scorers. Releford has scored 36 and 21 points in his past two games, but when he’s hot, Lacey often is not, and vice versa. They need to combine for 40 points. They had gone 11 consecutive games without combining for even 30 points until getting 47 and 33 in the past two.

Alabama rotates two players at the post, and each has clear strengths where the other has clear weaknesses. The Tide must get some offense from defensive specialist Moussa Gueye, and it must get some defense from offensive specialist Nick Jacobs. Gueye (1.5 ppg) has gone scoreless in 15 of 29 games, but he’s averaging .269 rebounds per minute. Jacobs is averaging .170, but he had 10 Tuesday in a 61-43 victory over Auburn.

3. Keep it close

Alabama is 9-5 in games decided by five or fewer points this season. Florida has been blowing opponents away. It has won 14 games by 21 or more points, including eight by at least 30 points. But the Gators are 0-2 in games decided by five or fewer points. Actually, they are 0-5 in games decided by less than 13 points. Billy Donovan probably is a future Hall of Fame coach, but in 17 seasons at Florida, his record is 58-75 in games decided by five or fewer points. Late in tight games, the Gators seem to resort to outside shooting rather than pounding the ball inside.

4. Set the pace

As usual, Alabama must extend and exhaust itself on defense and recuperate on offense. It must make the Gators work hard for their shots, and the Tide needs to be patient on offense, selecting shots carefully – but not too carefully. Its worst shots tend to be wild, outside shots fired as the clock expires. If any guards get a hot hand from the outside, kickback passes to the perimeter off of dribble-drive penetration might work.

5. Steal a road win

Florida isn’t going to give this game away. Alabama is going to have to take it. In league games, the Tide leads the SEC with 9.7 steals per game. Its record in SEC games is 7-1 when it gets at least 10 steals and 4-4 when it does not. Many of its steals come off the press. The Tide typically presses after it scores. In must convert a high rate of turnovers into points.