February 8, 2013: Rain ends - stormy Sunday coming

Thursday

Feb 7, 2013 at 12:01 AMFeb 7, 2013 at 6:21 AM

February 8, 2013

This blog is best viewed with Mozilla Firefox. There could be issues with spacing on Internet Explorer

Good Friday morning everyone! I have made a few changes to the blog. I am going to try place the weather tracking tools at the bottom three quarters of the page. The top quarter of the page will be my current thoughts and comments concerning what I am seeing on the models and the latest data.

Rain will come to an end this morning - the rest of the day should be dry. Highs will be cooler today vs yesterday. Expect highs in the 45-50 degree range. Lows tonight will be in the 20s. Highs on Saturday will be near 60!

Saturday will be dry during the day - rain chances will increase a bit on Saturday night. Rain and thunderstorm chances will dramatically increase on Sunday.

Widespread showers and thunderstorms will move west to east over our region on Sunday.

A strong area of low pressure will develop in the Midwest on Saturday and quickly move northeast into Minnesota on Sunday. This will drag a cold front into our region.

Showers and a line of thunderstorms will develop on Sunday - along the cold front This line will push completely through our region on Sunday afternoon. Locally heavy rain will be possible. Rainfall totals should be in the 0.50"-1.00" range.

Severe weather concerns? There will be a chance for a few severe thunderstorms with this system.

The one thing that holds me back from forecasting a lot of severe weather are the dew points. Dew points may only reach 50-55 degrees. I like to see 55-60 when forecasting severe storms. This is a marginal setup. Wind fields will be strong. Instability will be lacking.

If a line of thunderstorms does form then a few reports of damaging wind might occur. I can't rule out an isolated tornado. Let's monitor the next 24 hours and I will update again on Friday night (late) and Saturday.

Here is the future-cast radar from wright-weather.com - this is the NAM model showing you what the radar might look like early Sunday afternoon.

Forecast graphics above

A winter storm may develop on Tuesday night/Wednesday across the southern United States and move east/northeast into the southeast states. This storm system may track further south than recent events - I am not confident that it will impact our region. I am giving it a 2 in 10 chance for bringing snow into our local region. Not the best chance. But, I will continue to monitor it. Spot NWS forecast for your location (keep in mind that these forecasts on the point and click page are the NWS forecast thoughts - my thoughts are below and/or on my weather Facebook page) -- Click here - then enter your zip code for the most up to date spot forecast from the National Weather Service.

A winter storm may develop on Tuesday night/Wednesday across the southern United States and move east/northeast into the southeast states. This storm system may track further south than recent events - I am not confident that it will impact our region. I am giving it a 2 in 10 chance for bringing snow into our local region. Not the best chance. But, I will continue to monitor it.

It isn't too soon to do a snow dance. If you are a snow fan - then dance away

This is the kind of pattern that favors significant winter storms for our region. It is just a matter of getting the pieces of energy to phase correctly. The next 2-3 weeks will be quite interesting to forecast. It could be an all or nothing type pattern. Watch the southern storm tracks.

The longer range is starting to show some colder shots of air after this week. A couple of storm systems may track south of our region. This might mean snow for some areas of the south-lands and southeast United States. A bit early to make a call on storm tracks. Stay tuned!

For more frequent updates visit my weather Facebook page - click here and hit like at the top of the page.

Some thunderstorms likely on Sunday

Monitor updates on Sunday

Wild card will be whether or not we see some severe thunderstorms on Sunday. Monitor updates. ..------- The forecast for severe or extreme weather.The McCracken County Office of Emergency Management reminds you that owning a NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio is the best way to receive notifications of severe weather watches and warnings..Remember that the National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces 58 mph winds or higher, hail 1" in size or larger, and/or a tornado. Friday: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.Is there a chance for thunderstorms BELOW severe limits? NoTonight: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.Is there a chance for thunderstorms BELOW severe limits? NoTomorrow: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.Is there a chance for thunderstorms BELOW severe limits? No

We have a number of new radars available on our Weather Observatory web-site !--- We now offer St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, and Dyersburg Interactive City Radars. I have added all of eastern Kentucky, as well.

We also have the two regional radars and now offer you three GR Earth radars.

Click here for our radar page - WEATHER RADARS ------ We also have a new interactive radar - you can view that radar by clicking here..Want to learn more about how to use our radars? Here is a video with more informationClick here - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bfLa0hI3adU

.To view all watches and warnings in IL - Click Here To view all watches and warnings in KY - Click Here To view all watches and warnings in MO - Click HereTo view all watches and warnings in TN - Click HereAll other states- Click Here.The links above are interactive and you can move around the United States by simply clicking on the national map - or from the pull down menu where it says regions and US States..To view the interactive warning map - click here.

..The Weather Observatory is a strong partner with the National Weather Service - click here to visit your local NWS web-site. For the most up to date warnings/advisories hit refresh on their page.

.-----------------------------..Let's check out the how much rain is forecast to fall in our region. This map gives you a general broad brushed idea of what can be expected. Remember the scale is at the top of the map.

Click the link below - then choose your the time period you are interested in!

CLICK HERE FOR THE RAINFALL GRAPHIC - then choose the time frame above the image

.You can also now view the probability of X amount of rain (you pick the value on the web-site) in a six hour period of time. Those maps can be viewed here.

.

Current conditions - including temperatures, apparent temperatures, heat index, wind chill, wind, pressure, humidity, dew points, and more - click here ..You can view the upcoming days high temperature and low temperature forecasts by clicking here - choose the day - click on your state to zoom in .To view recent records that have been broken - click here .

.Keep in mind that these forecasts on the point and click page are the NWS forecast thoughts - my thoughts are below and/or on my weather Facebook page.

If you are a weather enthusiast then I recommend listening to WeatherBrains each week! For a more in-depth look at what is happening in meteorology.

Now is a GREAT time to buy a NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio. Better to have one before storms strike than to be without one during an event. I recommend the Midland Model 300 NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio - that is what I use here at my house!.Meteorologist Beau DodsonMcCracken County Office of Emergency Management.

.Beau Dodson Weather - Facebook.

To view all watches and warnings in Illinois - Click Here To view all watches and warnings in Kentucky - Click Here To view all watches and warnings in Missouri - Click HereTo view all watches and warnings in Tennessee - Click Here.All other states- Click Here.For the latest watches and warnings please visit your local National Weather Service Office web-sitehttp://www.weather.gov/organization.php.Remember most of the maps on the blog can be viewed on Weather Observatory Web-Site.

.

February 8, 2013

This blog is best viewed with Mozilla Firefox. There could be issues with spacing on Internet Explorer

Good Friday morning everyone! I have made a few changes to the blog. I am going to try place the weather tracking tools at the bottom three quarters of the page. The top quarter of the page will be my current thoughts and comments concerning what I am seeing on the models and the latest data.

Rain will come to an end this morning - the rest of the day should be dry. Highs will be cooler today vs yesterday. Expect highs in the 45-50 degree range. Lows tonight will be in the 20s. Highs on Saturday will be near 60!

Saturday will be dry during the day - rain chances will increase a bit on Saturday night. Rain and thunderstorm chances will dramatically increase on Sunday.

Widespread showers and thunderstorms will move west to east over our region on Sunday.

A strong area of low pressure will develop in the Midwest on Saturday and quickly move northeast into Minnesota on Sunday. This will drag a cold front into our region.

Showers and a line of thunderstorms will develop on Sunday - along the cold front This line will push completely through our region on Sunday afternoon. Locally heavy rain will be possible. Rainfall totals should be in the 0.50"-1.00" range.

Severe weather concerns? There will be a chance for a few severe thunderstorms with this system.

The one thing that holds me back from forecasting a lot of severe weather are the dew points. Dew points may only reach 50-55 degrees. I like to see 55-60 when forecasting severe storms. This is a marginal setup. Wind fields will be strong. Instability will be lacking.

If a line of thunderstorms does form then a few reports of damaging wind might occur. I can't rule out an isolated tornado. Let's monitor the next 24 hours and I will update again on Friday night (late) and Saturday.

Here is the future-cast radar from wright-weather.com - this is the NAM model showing you what the radar might look like early Sunday afternoon.

Forecast graphics above

A winter storm may develop on Tuesday night/Wednesday across the southern United States and move east/northeast into the southeast states. This storm system may track further south than recent events - I am not confident that it will impact our region. I am giving it a 2 in 10 chance for bringing snow into our local region. Not the best chance. But, I will continue to monitor it. Spot NWS forecast for your location (keep in mind that these forecasts on the point and click page are the NWS forecast thoughts - my thoughts are below and/or on my weather Facebook page) -- Click here - then enter your zip code for the most up to date spot forecast from the National Weather Service.

A winter storm may develop on Tuesday night/Wednesday across the southern United States and move east/northeast into the southeast states. This storm system may track further south than recent events - I am not confident that it will impact our region. I am giving it a 2 in 10 chance for bringing snow into our local region. Not the best chance. But, I will continue to monitor it.

It isn't too soon to do a snow dance. If you are a snow fan - then dance away

This is the kind of pattern that favors significant winter storms for our region. It is just a matter of getting the pieces of energy to phase correctly. The next 2-3 weeks will be quite interesting to forecast. It could be an all or nothing type pattern. Watch the southern storm tracks.

The longer range is starting to show some colder shots of air after this week. A couple of storm systems may track south of our region. This might mean snow for some areas of the south-lands and southeast United States. A bit early to make a call on storm tracks. Stay tuned!

For more frequent updates visit my weather Facebook page - click here and hit like at the top of the page.

Some thunderstorms likely on Sunday

Monitor updates on Sunday

Wild card will be whether or not we see some severe thunderstorms on Sunday. Monitor updates. ..------- The forecast for severe or extreme weather.The McCracken County Office of Emergency Management reminds you that owning a NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio is the best way to receive notifications of severe weather watches and warnings..Remember that the National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces 58 mph winds or higher, hail 1" in size or larger, and/or a tornado. Friday: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.Is there a chance for thunderstorms BELOW severe limits? NoTonight: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.Is there a chance for thunderstorms BELOW severe limits? NoTomorrow: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.Is there a chance for thunderstorms BELOW severe limits? No

We have a number of new radars available on our Weather Observatory web-site !--- We now offer St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, and Dyersburg Interactive City Radars. I have added all of eastern Kentucky, as well.

We also have the two regional radars and now offer you three GR Earth radars.

Click here for our radar page - WEATHER RADARS ------ We also have a new interactive radar - you can view that radar by clicking here..Want to learn more about how to use our radars? Here is a video with more informationClick here - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bfLa0hI3adU

.To view all watches and warnings in IL - Click Here To view all watches and warnings in KY - Click Here To view all watches and warnings in MO - Click HereTo view all watches and warnings in TN - Click HereAll other states- Click Here.The links above are interactive and you can move around the United States by simply clicking on the national map - or from the pull down menu where it says regions and US States..To view the interactive warning map - click here.

..The Weather Observatory is a strong partner with the National Weather Service - click here to visit your local NWS web-site. For the most up to date warnings/advisories hit refresh on their page.

.-----------------------------..Let's check out the how much rain is forecast to fall in our region. This map gives you a general broad brushed idea of what can be expected. Remember the scale is at the top of the map.

Click the link below - then choose your the time period you are interested in!

CLICK HERE FOR THE RAINFALL GRAPHIC - then choose the time frame above the image

.You can also now view the probability of X amount of rain (you pick the value on the web-site) in a six hour period of time. Those maps can be viewed here.

.

Current conditions - including temperatures, apparent temperatures, heat index, wind chill, wind, pressure, humidity, dew points, and more - click here ..You can view the upcoming days high temperature and low temperature forecasts by clicking here - choose the day - click on your state to zoom in .To view recent records that have been broken - click here .

.Keep in mind that these forecasts on the point and click page are the NWS forecast thoughts - my thoughts are below and/or on my weather Facebook page.

If you are a weather enthusiast then I recommend listening to WeatherBrains each week! For a more in-depth look at what is happening in meteorology.

Now is a GREAT time to buy a NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio. Better to have one before storms strike than to be without one during an event. I recommend the Midland Model 300 NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio - that is what I use here at my house!.Meteorologist Beau DodsonMcCracken County Office of Emergency Management.

.Beau Dodson Weather - Facebook.

To view all watches and warnings in Illinois - Click Here To view all watches and warnings in Kentucky - Click Here To view all watches and warnings in Missouri - Click HereTo view all watches and warnings in Tennessee - Click Here.All other states- Click Here.For the latest watches and warnings please visit your local National Weather Service Office web-sitehttp://www.weather.gov/organization.php.Remember most of the maps on the blog can be viewed on Weather Observatory Web-Site.

.

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