A study by the Society of Actuaries estimates that the new federal health care law will raise medical claims costs in Arkansas by 40.9 percent.

Medical claims costs are the main driver of health insurance premiums. The study estimates that President Barack Obama's Affordable Care Act will raise claims costs nationally by an average of 32 percent per person in the individual health insurance market by 2017. That's partly due to sicker people joining the pool.

The study assumes every state will expand its Medicaid program.

The report did not make estimates for employer plans, the mainstay for workers and their families. The primary impact of Obama's law is on people who don't have insurance through their jobs.

The Obama administration says the study ignores subsidies to help with premiums.