U.S. consumer prices slow as gasoline falls, rents moderate

By Lucia MutikaniReuters

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. consumer price growth slowed in February amid a decline in gasoline prices and a moderation in the cost of rental accommodation, the latest indication that an anticipated pickup in inflation probably will be only gradual.

The Labor Department said on Tuesday its Consumer Price Index rose 0.2 percent last month after jumping 0.5 percent in January. In the 12 months through February, the CPI rose 2.2 percent, up from 2.1 percent in January as the weak reading from last year dropped from the calculation.

Excluding the volatile food and energy components, the CPI gained 0.2 percent after accelerating 0.3 percent in January. The year-on-year increase in the so-called core CPI was unchanged at 1.8 percent in February.

"While there is evidence of building inflationary pressures in certain components, the annual growth rates, especially for the core CPI, do not suggest a breakout in inflation yet," said Ben Ayers, senior economist at Nationwide, in Columbus, Ohio.

Last month's increase in consumer prices was in line with economists' expectations. The Federal Reserve tracks a different index, the personal consumption expenditures price index excluding food and energy, which has consistently undershot the central bank's 2 percent target since mid-2012.

The CPI report came on the heels of data last Friday showing a deceleration in wage growth in February as well as a downward revision to January's increase in average hourly earnings. Average hourly earnings rose 2.6 percent on an annual basis in February, stepping down from January's 2.8 percent increase.

The dollar pared gains versus the yen and extended losses against the euro. Prices for U.S. Treasuries were trading higher. U.S. stock index futures rose.

Against the backdrop of a tightening labor market and strong economy, the Fed is widely expected to increase interest rates at its March 20-21 meeting. But steady inflation gains suggest the U.S. central bank will probably not change its interest rate forecast at next week's policy meeting.

FULL EMPLOYMENT

The Fed has forecast three rate hikes this year. Many economists expect that at some point it will upgrade its projection to four rate increases in 2018 amid optimism that the robust labor market will start boosting wage growth at least by the second half of this year. Policymakers consider the labor market to be near or a little beyond full employment.

The jobless rate is at a 17-year low of 4.1 percent and economists expect it to drop to 3.5 percent by year-end. A weakening dollar and fiscal stimulus in the form of a $1.5 trillion tax cut package and increased government spending are also seen spurring inflation.

The core CPI was restrained by a moderation in rents. Owners' equivalent rent of primary residence, which is what a homeowner would pay to rent or receive from renting a home, increased 0.2 percent last month after advancing 0.3 percent in January.