The state is still double-checking its data, and the calculations do not account for some factors that will impact the final grades. For example, the state is not counting test score for students at special education centers against their “home” schools, and but that change has not been factored into the calculations.

If the projections hold, the state will still go from having 10 percent of its middle and elementary schools rated D or F to 18 percent. The share of F schools would double, while the share of A schools would fall from 48 percent to 29 percent, and the share of B schools would increase.