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The worst sexual abuse scandal in the Catholic Church is probably over in Australia. But the crisis is likely to hit churches in Asia, Africa and parts of Europe within the next decade.
It was revealed in a report titled Child Sexual Abuse in the Catholic Church made by RMIT Australia university. This is the first report to summarize the findings of 26 special commissions, police investigations, judicial examinations, government investigations, church research, and academic research from around the world since 1985.
The report warns of the worst potential abuse of children and adolescents living in 9,600 church-run orphanages, including 2,600 in India and 1,600 in Italy.
"Sexual abuse of children has reached its peak and has declined since the late 70s and early 80s and is due to be revealed to the public arena," said Professor Des Cahill, one of the authors of the report.
"But I think in developing countries and in some European countries, there has not been an event that will raise this issue to the public sphere, I am especially thinking about countries in Asia and Africa," he said.
"It may come out on its own, after all this is uncovered, and return to 30, 40 years ... if the underlying problem is not addressed," he explained.
"I have not seen any signal at the Vatican level, even here in Australia, for the bishops to answer why this happened and why they - the bishops - reacted so badly," he explained.
By examining reports from Australia, Ireland, the United States, Britain, Canada and the Netherlands, Professor Cahill and his colleague theologian Peter Wilkinson, found that one in 15 priests, or about 7 percent, allegedly harassed children and adolescents between 1950 and 2000.
They say even today children are at risk of being in educational and welfare institutions when they can be accessed by immature and / or sexually weak celibacy, including priests and religious figures.
However, Professor Cahill, who advises the Royal Commission into Institutional Child Sexual Abuse, believes that the risks to children in Australian Catholic schools are now very low. This is mainly due to greater vigilance of parents, teachers and school officials.
He says most Catholic principals are married men and women, and are very aware of the risks to children.
The decision of the Catholic Church in Australia, the United States, the United Kingdom, New Zealand and Canada to abolish large orphanages and move the orphanage to family care has also substantially reduced the risk of harassment.
Controversially, however, the report warns that Australian confidence in overseas-trained priests - up to 40 percent in some dioceses - can be risky, as foreign bishops can eliminate abused priests abroad.
"Does the phenomenon of child sexual abuse by priests and religious figures tend to reappear and increase in the short or long term?" the report asked.
"The answer is unclear: this is possible, although there is the most rigorous examination that a priest or religious figure might be sent back to Australia, in the United States, not a few foreign priests, especially from the Philippines and India, who have been indicted and convicted."
The lack of pastoral candidates for priesthood in many Western countries in the past has also caused bishops to ordain people despite warnings from seminary principals and training that they are ineligible.
These include "immature psychosexuals, psychosexual and sexually abused and extremely frustrated male priests, especially those who do not solve their own sexual identity problems".
Professors Cahill and Dr. Wilkinson do not blame the crisis for abuse entirely on celibacy. But their reports noted a low level of abuse in the Eastern Catholic Church - especially Maronite, Ukrainian, Melkite and Chaldean Churches - where pastors were allowed to marry and father.
Professor Cahill himself is a former Catholic priest who resigned to get married and started an academic career that is now 40 years old.
He rejected the claims often made by conservative churches, that the liberal reform of the Second Vatican Council in the early 1960s had loosened the morals of priests.
"Most abuse occurred before the Second Vatican Council, during the 1950s and into the 60s," he said.
"And the majority of priests who do so have been ordained before the Second Vatican Council or are advancing in their studies, I think we need to be suspicious of the explanation," he added.

US President Donald Trump has given official recognition that Jerusalem is the capital of Israel. Trump also explained that the removal of the US Embassy will soon proceed.
Trump's historic speech was delivered at the White House, Washington DC, on Wednesday (6/12) noon US time, or Thursday (7/12) early morning Indonesia time. Trump was accompanied by US Vice President Mike Pence while delivering this speech.
As quoted from the White House official website, on Thursday (7/12/2017), Trump's speech is focused on the matter of official recognition of Jerusalem as the capital of Israel is also about the plan to move the US Embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem.
The removal of the US Embassy, ​​called Trump, was the implementation of the Jerusalem Embassy Act agreed by the US Congress in 1995. He called previous US presidents failing to implement the law.
Trump also affirmed that this recognition of Jerusalem does not mean aborting US commitment to peace efforts for Israel and the Palestinians. He said the United States remains committed to realizing a two-state solution, provided it is agreed by Israel as well as Palestine.
Furthermore, Trump calls this recognition of Jerusalem a new approach in the face of an endless Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
Here is Trump's complete statement about the confession of Jerusalem as quoted from the official website of the White House:
thanks. When I took office, I promised to see the world's challenges with open eyes and very fresh thinking. We can not solve our problems by making the same failing assumptions and repeating the same past strategies that have failed. All challenges require new approaches.
My announcement today marks the beginning of a new approach to the conflict between Israel and the Palestinians.
In 1995, the Congress adopted the Jerusalem Embassy Act which prompted the federal government to relocate the American Embassy to Jerusalem to recognize that the city, very importantly, was the capital of Israel. This law passed Congress with a vast majority bipartisan vote. And confirmed by the unanimous vote of the Senate just six months ago.
However, for more than 20 years, every American President has previously enacted a waiver law, refusing to move the US Embassy to Jerusalem or to recognize Jerusalem as the capital of Israel.
Presidents published this waiver in the belief that delaying the recognition of Jerusalem would advance the issue of peace. Some people call them less brave but they give their best judgment based on the facts they understand at the time. However, everything is recorded. After more than two decades of waiver publishing, we are not even closer to a lasting peace agreement between Israel and the Palestinians. It would be folly to assume that repeating the exact same formula will now produce different or better results.
Therefore, I have determined that it is time to officially recognize Jerusalem as the capital of Israel.
While previous presidents have made this a big campaign promise, they failed to make it happen. Today, I made it happen.
I have considered this series of actions to be in the best interests of the United States and peace efforts between Israel and the Palestinians. This is an expected step long enough to advance the peace process. And to pursue lasting deals.
Israel is a sovereign country with rights, just like every other sovereign state, to determine its own capital. Recognizing this as a fact is a necessary condition for achieving peace.
About 70 years ago, the United States under President Truman recognized the state of Israel. Since then, Israel has set its capital in the city of Jerusalem - the capital that the ancient Jewish people founded. Today, Jerusalem is the site of a modern Israeli government. The city is home to the Israeli Parliament, the Knesset, as well as the Israeli Supreme Court. The city became the official residence of the prime minister and president. The city became the headquarters of many government ministries.
For decades, US Presidents, Foreign Ministers and visiting military leaders met their Israeli partners in Jerusalem, just as I did during my visit to Israel earlier this year.
Jerusalem is not only a center of three major religions, but now also the center of one of the most successful democracies in the world. Over the past seven decades, the people of Israel have built a country where Jews, Muslims and Christians and people of all faiths are free to live and worship according to their conscience and according to their beliefs.
Jerusalem is today, and must remain, a place where Jews pray at the Wailing Wall, where Christians walk the way of the cross, and where Muslims worship at Al-Aqsa Mosque.
However, for years, the presidents representing the United States refused to formally recognize Jerusalem as the capital of Israel. In fact, we refuse to recognize the capital of Israel at all.
But today, we finally admit the obvious: that Jerusalem is the capital of Israel. It is no more and no less, it is a recognition of reality. It's also the right thing to do. This is the thing to do.
That is why, consistent with the Jerusalem Embassy Act, I also directed the Department of Foreign Affairs to begin the preparation of moving the American Embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem. This means immediately starting the process of hiring architects, technicians and planners so that the new embassy, ​​when completed, will be an extraordinary offering to peace.
In this announcement, I also want to clarify one point: This decision is not intended, in any way, to demonstrate the withdrawal of our strong commitment to facilitate a lasting peace agreement. We want a deal that is a good deal for Israel and a good deal for the Palestinians. We do not take positions for the final status on issues including Israel's specific sovereign borders in Jerusalem or the contested border resolution. Those questions become the affairs of the parties involved.
The United States remains committed deeply to help facilitate the peace agreement received by both parties. I intend to do anything in my ability to help forge such an agreement. Without question, Jerusalem is one of the most sensitive issues in the negotiations. The United States will support a two-state solution if agreed upon by both parties.
For now, I call on all parties to maintain the status quo in the holy sites of Jerusalem, including the Temple Mount, also known as Haram al-Sharif.
Above all, our greatest hope is peace, the universal will in every human soul. With today's decision, I reaffirm my long-standing commitment to the peace and security of the region in the future.
There will be, of course, disagreements and disagreements regarding this announcement. But we believe that in the main, with us facing this disagreement, we will arrive at peace and a much better place in understanding and cooperation.
This sacred city should be able to show the best in humanity. Lift our view to what is possible, not pull back and down on the old quarrel that has become quite predictable. Peace is never beyond the grasp of those who want to achieve it.
So today, we are calling for calm, restrainedness, tolerant voices to win over spreading hatred. Our children should inherit our love, not ours.
I affirmed the message I delivered during an extraordinary and historic meeting in Saudi Arabia earlier this year: The Middle East is a region rich in culture, spirit and history. His people are brilliant, full of pride and variety, passionate and powerful. But the extraordinary future that awaits this region, stifled by bloodshed, ignorance and terror.
Vice President Pence will visit the region in the coming days to reaffirm our commitment to work there with partners across the Middle East to defeat the radicalism that threatens the hopes and dreams of future generations.
This is the time for many people who want peace to drive extremists out of their midst. It is time for all civilized nations, and their people, to respond to disagreements with a reasonable argument - not violence.
And this is the time for young and moderate people to speak all over the Middle East to realize their own bright and beautiful future.
So today, let us rededicate ourselves to a path of mutual understanding and respect. Let's rethink the old assumptions and open our hearts and minds to what is possible and every possibility. And finally, I ask regional leaders - political and religious; the people of Israel and Palestine; Jews and Christians and Muslims - to join us in the noble quest for lasting peace.
thanks. God bless you. God bless Israel. God bless Palestine. And God bless the United States. Thank you very much. thanks.