Friday, October 9, 2009

Final Thoughts on US Mint Product Cancellations

Earlier this week, the United States Mint announced a slew of product cancellations. Collector favorites such as the Proof Gold and Silver Eagles, and others such as collectible uncirculated Gold and Silver Eagles, and bullion Platinum Eagles will not be produced for 2009. After the announcement, I wrote a series of posts exploring the canceled (and available) products. This final post will provide some overall thoughts and reactions to the situation.

It's true that demand for gold, silver, and other precious metals has been exceptionally high for the past few years. During 2008 world mints struggled to cope with the increased demand, and many had to resort to product suspensions or allocations, similar to the steps taken by the United States Mint. By 2009 most world mints adapted to the elevated demand for their products, and in many cases, are now thriving in the current environment.

The Royal Canadian Mint quadrupled its capacity to produce bullion coins in late 2008. In 2009, they reintroduced two previously canceled bullion products, the Platinum Maple Leaf and the Palladium Maple Leaf, citing demand from distributors. The Platinum Maple Leaf was last offered in 1999 and the Palladium Maple Leaf in 2007. Indications suggest that sales of these reintroduced products have been strong.

The Austrian Mint extended shifts to nights and weekends, and recruited additional workers. They also introduced a new silver bullion coin, the Silver Philharmonic. The efforts of the Austrian Mint paid off. Their Gold Philharmonic captured additional market share and become the best selling gold coin in the world for the final quarter of 2008.

The Perth Mint of Australia invested in additional and improved equipment to streamline production and take advantage of market conditions. For their fiscal year ended June 30, 2009, they reported a record profit of $38 million, compared to $3.7 million profit in the prior year. Sales increased across both bullion and collector coin offerings. Rather than complaining about demand, the Perth Mint cited "favorable market conditions" as the reason for their increased profits. They aim to continue to "take advantage of the renewed interest in precious metals" in the next fiscal year.

The US Mint and Precious Metals Demand

The US Mint reacted to the increased demand for their products by implementing a series of suspensions and/or rationing programs. These eventually touched nearly all of their bullion and collectible precious metal products. As mentioned, other world mints were forced to initially resort to such measures, but managed to adapt and quickly lift suspensions and allocations.

The US Mint's rationing programs extended into 2009, even as they significantly shrunk their line of bullion coins. Until the recent announcements, the US Mint had only offered one ounce Gold Eagle and one ounce Silver Eagle bullion coins. In prior years, they had offered a full line of fractional weight Gold Eagles, a full range of fractional and one ounce Platinum Eagles, a 24 karat Gold Buffalo, and a wide array of precious metals collector coins.

At one point, the US Mint did state that they were seeking additional suppliers of precious metals blanks, which seemed to be the crux of the problem. The US Mint is held to special requirements for the sourcing of metal for its bullion coins, so the process was more complicated than for other mints. To date, I have not heard any news about the US Mint securing additional suppliers.

US Mint's Missed Opportunities

I am not convinced that it was absolutely impossible for the US Mint to produce Proof 2009 Gold and Silver Eagles. As mentioned in a previous post, the US Mint started sourcing all 22 karat gold and silver blanks to the production of bullion coins since at least June 2008. This means that they had well over one year to try to find a resolution to the situation, either by increasing acquisition of blanks from existing suppliers or contracting with new ones. During this time frame, it is worth noting that the US Mint was somehow able to secure at least 100,000 one ounce 24 karat gold blanks for the production of this year's Ultra High Relief Double Eagle Gold Coin.

The rationing programs put in place during 2008 ended in June 2009. Most took this as a sign that the unprecedented demand had abated and the US Mint was finally able to meet "full demand" without resorting to rationing. Since the rationing programs have not been reinstated, presumably the US Mint has meeting full demand during the past three months. Was the number of precious metals blanks obtained by the Mint exactly equal to the demand for bullion coins? I have to think the US Mint should have had some opportunity to put aside at least a small inventory of blanks for the production of collector coins later in the year.

The US Mint must have realized that this week's announcement regarding the cancellation of many popular collector coins would set off a wave of disappointment and complaints. To soften the blow, they cleverly titled their press release "United States Mint to Offer 2009 American Buffalo Proof Gold and American Platinum Proof Coins." Behind the title, the US Mint revealed the slew of canceled coins.

The tone of release was unsympathetic and unapologetic. The cancellations were simply the result of the US Mint's legal obligation to produce bullion coins. The article implied that the US Mint was not at fault, rather it was the result of all those pesky bullion buyers.

Rather trying to sidestep the issue and provide legal justifications, collectors should have been issued an outright apology. I think that breaking with a twenty two year tradition requires that someone take personal responsibility and admit that something went wrong.

Throughout the tumultuous events of the past two years, the US Mint has only issued one public apology. This was in response to an extended website outage in January 2008.

Collecting US Mint Coins in 2009

In recent history, it has never been so difficult or complicated to collect newly issued coins from the US Mint. In the past, the US Mint offered a wide variety of products, the availability core products could be depended on throughout the year, and sell outs happened in weeks or months, if at all.

Today, the product line has been reduced by more than 60%, many core products have been delayed or canceled, and we all know the Lincoln Coin and Chronicles Set will sell out on the first day. Readers have mentioned calling in sick from work on the launch date to stay home and battle with the US Mint’s overloaded server. While it seems ridiculous, this has become a practical solution. Is this the new face of coin collecting?

Even collecting newly minted coins from circulation has become a challenge. Just ask anyone who has tried to obtain the 2009 quarters from their bank, or tried to find any 2009 nickels or dimes from any source besides eBay. During the State Quarter era, the new designs would faithfully show up in change within a few months of release. Collectors could obtain uncirculated rolls of each new design from their local banks at face value. Granted there are distribution issues related to circulating coins, but another excuse, even a justified one, doesn't provide much consolation.

I honestly don’t want to have to worry about the US Mint’s supply chain issues, the legal pecking order of their products, or the distribution system for new coins. I want a reasonable assortment of products, which includes expected core offerings and occasional special offerings. If I like one of their coins or products, I want to have the ability to easily purchase it without reorganizing my life to do so. If the US Mint must release eighteen different circulating coin designs each year, I would expect the reasonable opportunity to acquire them at face value or a reasonable premium.

2009 Platinum Eagle, 2009 Gold Buffalo, 2009 Fractional Gold Eagles

To end things on a less dour note, I wanted to give my thoughts on the 2009 precious metals products that will be released in the coming months. This includes two collectible coins and some previously unissued bullion coins.

Many are looking forward to the one ounce 2009 Proof Gold Buffalo and 2009 Proof Platinum Eagle coins as potential big winners. The coins are tentatively scheduled for release on October 29 and December 3, respectively. The 2008 versions of these products now sell for double or more than their last issue prices, but will the same thing happen for the 2009 coins?

It depends. Even though the products are being offered at the tail end of the year and possibly for a short ordering period, the pent up demand for these products will be significant. Collectors will likely buy every coin the US Mint offers, but how many will this be?

If the number minted is low, or at least in line with 2008 levels, then the products will sell out and prices will move up quickly on the secondary market. If the US Mint (somehow) mints these coins in large quantities, the potential is curtailed.

As an example, the US Mint offered the 10th Anniversary Platinum Eagle set at the very end of 2007. Anticipation for the set was high following the sell outs and price appreciation for the prior 20th Anniversary Gold and Silver Eagle Sets. The US Mint produced 30,000 of the Platinum Sets and eventually sold about 20,000 sets. For a collectible Platinum Eagle, this mintage was enormous. The high mintage served to curb the potential for price appreciation after the coins were no longer available at the Mint.

Beyond the collectible products, the US Mint will also be offering one ounce bullion 2009 Gold Buffalo coins and fractional 2009 Gold Eagle coins. These will be available from bullion dealers on October 15 and December 3, respectively. Typically, most bullion coins are purchased by precious metals investors and don't carry a collectible premium. However, if the mintages come in low enough, I think it will be possible.

It's likely that the 2009 Gold Buffalo bullion coin will be heavily ordered, but end up with a comparatively low mintage. The current lowest mintage for a bullion Gold Buffalo is 189,500 coins for 2008136,503 coins for 2007. Again, it will be a matter of how many the US Mint produces, but the number is almost certain to come in below the 2008 mintage, perhaps significantly. Since the coin will be available from October 15, there will be several weeks of data during the course of sales to examine.

I think that the best bet will be the fractional bullion Gold Eagles. The coins will be overshadowed by the Gold Buffalo and will be available later in the year, probably for just a few weeks. Mintages are bound to come in at historical lows, and draw the interest of collectors. This would set the stage for some higher prices after the coins are no longer available from bullion dealers.

This will conclude my coverage of this week's events for the time being. I will continue to cover any subsequent news and the individual coins as the release dates come closer. I invite any other collectors to share their thoughts and reactions in the comments. You are also invited to submit articles with your reactions for publication on Coin Update News. See the contributors page for more details.

Many years from now when we're all old and gray and future collectors wonder why the 2009 coins are so few or non-existent, we will be able to smile and say to them "If only you could have been there to see it. What a circus it was!"

I hate to say it but wait till next year. Even if the mint cleans up its act, they are going to have major issues with obtaining blanks for any silver or gold coins as the price of silver and gold climb.

Does anyone know where I can get info on what coins will be coming out in 2010 other than the American the Beautiful quarters?

That indeed was an particularly excellent summary by Michael outlining the obvious failing by the Mint and it's leadership. I for one would love to see this post sent to Coin World and other publications as a front page article or certainly as a guest editorial piece.

If Mr. Moy was half the man he is supposed to be, and I'm not swiping at his dimunitive personal physical appearance, he would have the gumption (cleaned up term) to respond publically and respond in print as to why his organization and his personal activities have failed so miserably for the past several years and especially in 2009. In any normal business operating today that serves the public and customers, disgraceful and callous mismanagement would result in immediate dismisal, top to bottom. Mr. Moy has officials above him and they need to swallow hard and do the right thing. This is a no-brainer. This is supposed to be America.

That man should be ashamed and be held accountable. I don't have a long time to live, but I certainly hope I don't have to go to my grave still angry at disservice to the American collecting public. ~ Grandpa

Jimmer, I think it's not the absence of a proof silver dollar that has everyone crazed and angry, it's the string-along, public-be-damned attitude towards collectors (and they are indeed supporting customers), and the timing / manner to stop a series with just a few months before year end. Their constant baloney was fed out suggesting they were working on obtaining "sufficient quantities of blanks, etc.", and implying an announcement would be made about the annual offering just prior to year-end. Many smalltime collectors allocated recession short funds aside to purcahse SAE's and some for the gold versions, not buying other items during the year. Now quite a few of those are no longer available.

Clearly, if there was such a shortage of blanks to sell to bullion distributors, a very modest and limited quantuty of proofs and Unc.'s could be made that would have an imperceivable impact on regular bullion sales.

It's OK to suspend any series, but such should only be made and announced at the very end or begining of a year. That would accomplish their plan, and NOT pi$$ off the hand that feeds you.

I just wonder whether Obama has been made aware of the extreme damage and ill governmental feelings this has done to his administration and legacy. Shameflu, I just hope someone with brains notices and reverses another BAD DECISION by Mr. Moy and his "advisors". Do a work-around Moy, stop making an a$$ of yourself. You still have time.

I'm trying to remember back when the us mint changed the wheat penny to the memorial penny.A lot of collectors were upset.Although the collectors back then did not have any other way to complain other then to write the Congress or the US Mint and express dissatisfaction.

Then to ad insult to injury they decided to cut copper almost completely out of the cent.Even in 43 during the war they tried the steel cent which was a huge flop but helped to save our precious medals for war.

Understanding that there is a huge difference between the cent and the silver eagle.There seems to be a striking resemblance of then and now.If history does repeat it's self.The days of pure precious medal coinage may indeed be over.The replacement may come in a new form of clad much like the 40% silver coins produced.

As terrible as this may sound.I think it beats the hell out of price increases that fall well out of the average collectors budget and causes productions not to sell.If history repeats it's self which it usually does.look for these changes to happen much sooner then much later.

I really believe that the governments fear of hoarding in small pockets all over this great nation has now become reality.And the latest news and up coming news is and will tell just how much control they yearn to have.

The bottom line that I think many have not realized is that we are at war with many nations.This is a war time event and will not be forgotten.Nor will all of the soldiers be forgotten that have given up their lives so you can keep your collections.

So this year I decided to do something nice with the money I would have spent on the silver eagles.I decided to choose a family who has lost someone from these wars and give them a Merry Christmas.

If your upset about the changes just know that that is natural.To overcome and conquer is the American way.Please do not lose sight of that in you anger and do for those who have protected your right to be angry.

Over 5,000 U.S. troops have now been killed in Iraq and Afghanistan, with the former conflict, which began in 2003, reportedly responsible for 4,340 of those deaths and the latter conflict, now approaching its ninth year, responsible for an estimated 820 deaths.

Surely we can put down a few of those Silver bucks for these brave warriors and their families.

I say let the US Mint make these Proofs and let all proceeds go to these families.It would be a sell out on the first day.

I will give one of my silver eagles for restike of this nature to benefit this idea.Will anyone else do the same? We need more collectors to jump on board to help our families of falling soldiers.I had this in a dream last night and I think it will work.And keep the Silver eagle alive at the same time.

If you are interested in this idea.Please email me and I will be the first to show up at Mr Moys office to give him my eagle for a restrike.But we need 100,000 collectors or 100,000 silver eagles to make this work.And a good lawyer who knows how to lobby.

In order for the bullion gold eagles to have historically low mintages they will probably have to fall under the 2007 w and 2008 w burnished mintages as those are the historically low mintage so far and I am not sure if the market differentiates between the two.

http://www.coincyclopedia.com/AmericanEagleGold.htm

I can't see them making less than 13,000 1/10 ouncers or 9200 1/4 ouncers, 15,000 1/2 ounce perhaps, and 12,000 1 ouncers I doubt.

This is total BS that the mint can't aquire sufficient blanks to meet demand. They were able to aquire 20 million yet were so stingy that they couldn't set aside a few hundred thousand for proofs!? They would have made a huge profit too compared to the business strike versions that are basically priced according to spot silver with a very small premium. STUPID!

Canada is having no problem stamping out their maple leafs. Austria is having no problem stamping out their philharmonics. And Australia...what can I say!! $38 million dollars all pure profit, and yet THE largest mint in the world cant keep up with demand, LOL!!! These foreign mints ought to be an example for the U.S.

And then in 2008, the U.S. mint decides "oh, lets cut our product offerings by 60% by cutting out some of the most popular products ever, such as the fractional buffalo's and platinum eagles." In a previous post it reads "The number of products will decline from the current level of 550 to a more MANAGEABLE 200 items." Well, the better cut them another 40% since they can't handle this amount of product offerings either. How many of you agree with me that the US Mint was much better able to handle a larger # of product offerings in 2007/2008 than they are now with less?

It just makes no sense (of course anything the us gov't does usually doesn't) at all. TOTAL BS!

Oh, But rest assured that there will be plenty of silver blanks for those big 5 OUNCE Nat. Parks commems!!! This is the part that gets me. You don't have enough 1 ounce blanks for our silver eagle proofs, yet they will be able to obtain the 5-ounce blanks that measure 3 inches in diameter???? Who would even want a coin that big! It is more like a silver cookie. I for one will not buy ANY! Third party grading companies are going to have some fun slabbing these babies!

I still have yet to see a 2009 nickel, dime, or log cabin cent in circulation. The formative years design cents are plentiful in pocket change and I don't even save them anymore. I did get one professional years cent in change though. As for quarters, for the year to date I received only one DC and one guam qtr. This has been one heck of a year for us collectors.

The Mint's death rattle has started and no one in authority is conscious about it or seems to care. One fine day some errant Congressman will be looking in all the usual obscure places to syphon money, for his States study on the number of twists a red nightcrawler makes before drowning in a trout stream, and find the Mint's collector profits account has dwindled to nothing. Only then when a phone call is made inquiring where the milk went, will someone reveal it was spilled long ago and the cow's aren't generating anymore.

I think what the mint is failing to see is the products they are transitioning too are less popular than earlier issues.

1]Spouse gold- unpopular2]Territorial quarters and Park quarters- unpopular compared to state quarters3]5 ounce silver bullion- will also be unpopular

This is not the direction to go and the mint has unfortunately made the mistake of picking topics fewer people will collect.

I remember three years ago I was sent a questionnaire by the mint on what they should do for future mint issues. None of these topics above were asked in that questionnaire so how they came up with them I have no idea.

The questionnaire was about the future bullion offerings and what would be popular. I think the mint did not follow the advice given by collectors.

I should say they did partly, they ended some products which was the right thing to do, however they did not transition to the products we wanted.

Also I find it bizarre that they come out with bullion gold eagles but abandoned the proof gold eagles for the end of the year.

So where does the mint go from here?

Well they can still save themselves by doing what we told them to do three years ago, and that is put out the products we want.

The American eagle products in gold and silver should only be issued as bullion by dealers, the mint itself should sell collector coins with more attractive designs since they charge a high premium.

Did they learn the lesson of the W collector coins? If you offer a coin from the mint and a bullion dealer with the same design except for a W people don't care and will go to the cheaper coin. That is why sales of the W coins were so low.

Had the mint used the old Morgan design on the W silver eagles instead that coin would have sold a few million directly from the mint because it would have been different.

So the mint needs to change the designs of the W collector coins they sell to ones that people want and leave the silver and gold eagle designs to bullion sales only.

I think most of us recognize excellence in coin design, production, marketing, and distribution -- and the lack of it -- when we see it. Perhaps the U.S. Mint should also recognize it. In the spirit of better serving its customers while at the same time doing its part to outsource its functions, the U.S. Mint should consider asking Congress to modify current law to allow bullion to be purchased from North American sources rather than just U.S. sources... and then contract to have the Royal Canadian Mint produce all of its precious metal coins, both bullion and collector.

If the mint has over 100,000 gold blanks, why couldn't they have just:

- limit the UHR to 60,000 (which would have been a quick sell out and low mintage)

- then, make about 20,000 gold eagles and 20,000 gold buffalo's with the rest of the gold. (also quick sellouts and low mintages)

- then, make only 500,000 or so proof silver eagles out of the 22,000,000 silver blanks they will end up using this year. (again, the would have made a quick sell out and a low mintage coin)

... if they had planned ahead, this would have worked perfectly.

Instead, they are going to make well over 100,00 UHR's (high mintage), no gold eagles, no silver eagles, and probably very few gold buffalo's!!!!

With the gold and silver they have already used, they could have supplied us with the collector coins we wanted... with a bonus that they would all be very low mintages... but, NO... THAT WOULD MAKE SENSE...

The UHR blanks are 24 karat - the eagles are 22 karat - they are not interchangeable. That said, the mint should have been able to set aside enough 22 karat blanks earlier this year for the proofs at least - there is no shortage of gold itself.

I was under the impression that the blankes get produced by a secont party. And that the process for producing the bullion, un-circulated, and proff were all slightly diferent from satin to mirror finishes. Am I miss informed about this?

My understanding is that some of the Mint's products, such as First Spouse and 5-ounce silver quarters, are required by Congressional legislation, so the Mint must offer these products regardless of demand (or lack of it).

I don't think a break in the date run of a series will have a huge effect on its popularity. Coins with "missing" dates include Buffalo nickels, Mercury dimes, Standing Liberty quarters, Washington silver and clad quarters, Walking Liberty halves, Kennedy halves, Morgan, Peace, Ike and Susan B. Anthony dollars. Lincoln cents would have joined this list except for the low-mintage 1922-D cent.

At least the $50 Buffalo gold and the $100 proof Platinum Eagle continue to retain date continuity, for now.

"Does anyone know where I can get info on what coins will be coming out in 2010 other than the American the Beautiful quarters?"

Stay tuned here, and I will also create a section on Coin Update. So far, the two commemorative programs are known-- the 2010 Boy Scouts Commemorative and 2010 Disabled veterans Commemorative Silver Dollars.

"Just out of curiosity, why does the mint have such a hard time getting blanks for the silver and gold eagles, but not the first spouse series?"

The first spouse series is struck on 24 karat gold blanks and are legally required to be produced. It seems like when the US Mint is legally required to produce something, they always manage to find a way.

I am just about done with the US Mint, their crappy delivery means, and worst yet, their piss poor web site. The LN6 fiasco was the final straw after they stopped the AE Silver Proof and the whole stupid national parks quarters thing. I have been collecting (annual sets across the board, with an occasional 1 oz. gold coin) since my 1st child was born in 1995 and was planning to keep it up until they graduate college as a gift to them to do with what they want. The stupid limits (1 buy x2 for my kids) and other boneheaded directives they follow have now ended my days of collecting mint coins. PATHETIC.

I just cancelled my subscription for the Silver Eagle proof and uncirculated coins. It is a good thing that they have a checkbox for the reason for cancelling that states "Dissatisfied with availability of the item in the program". If they see enough people checking off that reason they might start to see that they are loosing money.