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BREAKING – VIOLENCE AT KABUL HOSPITAL – Stars and Stripes: “An Afghan policeman has killed three Americans inside a hospital in the Afghan capital, according to a Kabul police official. The official said the gunman opened fire around 10 a.m. inside a hospital run by the American aid group CURE, located on a busy road in western Kabul that is also home to the country’s parliament. The policeman killed three Americans as they entered the hospital and wounded a foreign woman, according to the official. The gunman was wounded and arrested, according to police officials.” http://goo.gl/eDTCvz

JOE COOL IN TOKYO—While you were sleeping, President Obama held his news conference with Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe in which he delivered the words that his hosts wanted to hear directly from his own lips: That a security treaty committing the United States to defend Japan militarily applies apply to the Senkaku islands, which are also claimed by China in an increasingly bitter dispute. This is longstanding policy that has been articulated recently by visiting cabinet secretaries, but carries a lot more oomph from the president. But Obama also dismissively called the disputed territory “a rock” and made clear that he considers the crisis fundamentally irrational. In paternal tones, he told the two nations to work it out and advised Abe that it "would be a profound mistake to continue to see escalation around this issue instead of dialogue.”

BEIJING IS GROUCHY—A foreign ministry statement said Japan’s claims on what China calls the Diaoyu islands are “illegal and invalid” and said the United States should butt out. Reuters and the New York Times are among several with good summaries: http://goo.gl/LTL5Vu

PLAYBOOK SYMPATHIES to our media colleagues on the trip. It gives one of your guest authors flashbacks to Clinton-era official visits to the region. The time zone difference in Asia—Tokyo is 13 hours ahead of Washington—means that reporters stay up all day reporting and writing, and then stay up at night talking with editors and others back in the United States. On a China trip in 1998, this phenomenon produced a five-day stretch with only three hours of sleep.

SPEAKING OF WHICH—We are a little worried about Mike and his cultural exchange mission. We hear that he is already affecting a foreign accent, reading Sartre at sidewalk cafes, and smoking clove cigarettes. Good thing he will be back on duty starting Saturday.

HEDGING HIS BETS--WILLIAM M. DALEY, the former White House chief of staff to President Obama and Commerce Secretary under President Clinton, is announcing today that he’ll lead the U.S. expansion of a Switzerland-based hedge fund, Argentiere Capital. The fund -- run by Deepak Gulati, who, like Daley, is a JPMorgan Chase alumnus -- has about $500 million under management. Daley will remain in Chicago, which will be U.S. HQ.

--DALEY told Playbook by phone: “I’ve always been with big organizations. This is a bunch of young people who are starting a business. When I left the government, I said I wanted to be part of building something, and this is as entrepreneurial a business as I’ve ever been involved in. It’s exciting. It’s the stage of my life where people are saying: ‘Go take it easy, and hang out.’ I figure that’s a recipe for death.”

TOP TALKER—It’s the 2014 Time 100 list, to be released later this a.m. Among the highlights from this entertaining if mystifying annual parlor game is a record 41 women, including Megyn Kelly, Robin Wright, Kerry Washington, and Janet Yellen. The list also features lots of names from U.S. politics and writers from both sides of the aisle. TIME 100s include Charlie Rose by Michael Bloomberg, Jerry Brown by Gray Davis, Hillary Clinton by Malala Yousafzai, Kirsten Gillibrand by Alfonse D'Amato, Eric Holder by John Lewis, John Kerry by Hillary Clinton, David and Charles Koch by Karl Rove, Rand Paul by Mitch McConnell, Scott Walker by Chris Christie and Pope Francis by President Obama. POTUS himself is on the list for the ninth time. TIME 100GOES LIVE AT 7 AM:http://goo.gl/3aI9M7

EYEBROW-RAISER: “Scott Walker, the heartland’s Republican hopeful,” by Chris Christie: “Leadership takes many forms in public office. One of the most difficult challenges is standing up for what you believe in when faced with relentless public attacks. Scott Walker faced that test and passed it with flying colors. ...His reforms have brought tax reductions to his citizens and economic growth to his state. They have allowed public workers the freedom to choose whether to belong to a union. They have made Wisconsin a better place to live and work. His reward? A resounding 're-election' in 2012 after the failed recall, prosperity for his state and the satisfaction of knowing that the public does recognize and appreciate an officeholder with the courage of his convictions.”

PLAY ALONG AT HOME—In a city of ambitious, status-conscious, knowledge-class professionals like Washington, the list will inevitably prompt inward reflections and even a member of self-reproach. Just give in to it: How many of the 100 names do you recognize without Google? How many people on the list are younger than you? How many would know your name and hug or air kiss you when you see them?

WHY VOGEL WAS PUT ON THE PLANET—To write stories like this morning’s leading POLITICO….Just as he has swarmed relentlessly over secret conservative confabs thrown by the Koch Brothers, Ken is all over the annual secret liberal confab thrown by Democracy Alliance, scheduled for Chicago next week. The similarities: Ultra-rich people trying to turn their fortunes into political power, hobnobbing with well-connected politicians and their operatives, with the doors shut and blinds pulled down.

“The DA, as the liberal group is known to insiders, is increasing its ranks of rich donors for the first time in years and is gearing up to spend huge sums on political data, voter registration, ground organizing and advertising to influence the 2014 midterms and 2016 presidential elections. Potentially more significant, the groups’ donors also could play an important role in determining whether the post-Barack Obama Democratic Party embraces the rising tide of progressive populism or hews to a more cautious, centrist course — in other words, whether the Hillary Clinton wing or Elizabeth Warren wing will seize the reins.” http://goo.gl/G5oghc

SCOOP – “Navy reassigns ex-Blue Angels commander after complaint he allowed sexual harassment” – The Washington Post’s Craig Whitlock: “The Navy has reassigned a former commander of the Blue Angels, its acrobatic fighter squadron, and is investigating allegations that the elite team of pilots was a hotbed of hazing, sexual harassment and other forms of discrimination, documents show. … But an internal military document that a Navy official inadvertently e-mailed to a Washington Post editor states that a former member of the Blue Angels filed a complaint last month accusing McWherter of promoting a hostile work environment and tolerating sexual harassment. The complaint described an atmosphere rife with sexually explicit speech, the open display of pornography and jokes about sexual orientation.” http://goo.gl/I7azrg

BUNDY MELTDOWN – RANCHER’S RACIST REMARKS – Cliven Bundy, the Nevada rancher clashing with the Bureau of Land Management and drawing coverage from righty media as a kind of folk hero, goes way over the line in a story by the NYT’s Adam Nagourney: “‘I want to tell you one more thing I know about the Negro,’ he said. Mr. Bundy recalled driving past a public-housing project in North Las Vegas, ‘and in front of that government house the door was usually open and the older people and the kids — and there is always at least a half a dozen people sitting on the porch — they didn’t have nothing to do. They didn’t have nothing for their kids to do. They didn’t have nothing for their young girls to do.” And it gets worse:http://goo.gl/Ihktd1

REALITY CHECK: This is why most smart Republicans resisted this guy’s self-important standoff from the start. Now, the ones that didn’t – the ones that lunged at the cable catnip story – have cleanup to do.

NEXT ACTS – HARI SEVUGAN TO 270 – First look at today’s announcement: “270 Strategies announced today that longtime communications strategist Hari Sevugan is joining the grassroots firm as a Principal … Sevugan comes to 270 Strategies after helping lead some of the most-watched political operations of the last decade. In the 2008 cycle, he served as Communications Director for Chris Dodd’s presidential campaign and later as a senior spokesman for Obama for America … As National Press Secretary for the Democratic National Committee, he was the Party’s chief spokesman and oversaw national rapid response operations for its legislative, electoral, and political efforts … Named one of Politico's ‘Top 50 Politicos To Watch,’ Sevugan has been recognized for his effective leadership and communications work.”

**A message from the Government of Canada: Canada is America’s largest oil supplier. Every day Canada provides more oil to America than Saudi Arabia and Venezuela combined. Canada: America’s best energy partner. Learn more at GoWithCanada.ca

SENATE SCUFFLE – ABOUT THOSE POLLS … Remember those New York Times/Kaiser polls from yesterday, showing Arkansas Sen. Mark Pryor up 10 points and dogfights in North Carolina and Kentucky? NRSC isn’t buying it – political director Ward Baker: “Each [poll] has deep methodological and reporting flaws that draw into question all of the findings, none more so than the Arkansas poll … The release claims that 1,027 adults in Arkansas completed the survey. Question 24 on page 2 indicates that 79% of Arkansan adult respondents are registered to vote at their current address. Anyone with a calculator can figure out that this works out to about 811 voters in the poll… but the survey reports having 857 registered voters … Bottom line, the data is both unreliable and misleading.” http://goo.gl/5ugGL7

NYT REBUTTAL – The Upshot’s Nate Cohn: “At first glance, the self-reported vote for 2012 in the poll data does seem off. In Arkansas, for instance, Mitt Romney had only a one-point lead, 27 to 26 percent, with 32 percent of respondents saying that they didn’t vote. In 2012, Mr. Romney won Arkansas by a huge margin, 60 percent to 36 percent … But there’s a well-known bias toward the victor in post-election surveys. Respondents who voted for the loser often say that they don’t remember whom they supported, or say they supported someone else …[A] final reason to have confidence in the results: Mr. Obama’s approval ratings look about right. If the poll was biased toward Democrats, Mr. Obama’s approval ratings should be too high. But they’re not.” http://goo.gl/gEuTvE

DSCC’S TAKE: “DC convention wisdom is flat out wrong in Arkansas and there’s mounting evidence of Mark Pryor’s strength. Washington made up their mind a while ago that they thought Tom Cotton was the cat's pajamas, but Arkansans knew next to nothing about him. Since then Cotton has not had a good introduction.”

THE BIGGER PICTURE HERE: Party committees hype up favorable poll results – and tear down less-favorable poll results – all the time. But this spat over Arkansas is more than just spin. There’s genuine disagreement between Ds and Rs over how strong Pryor and Cotton are in that race – and increasingly, the broader strategic assumptions for 2014 are diverging on both sides. We’re not in “unskewed” territory yet, but the two sides are operating more and more from different fundamental readings of the 2014 environment.

MORE: Republicans think that Arkansas and most of the 2014 targets are, first and foremost, profoundly conservative states; that Obama and his health care law are utterly toxic for Democrat; that in November Democrats are more likely to lose Colorado than they are to keep Arkansas or North Carolina. Democrats think that fallout from the ACA rollout debacle is largely contained or containable’ that the larger economic contrast between the parties still favors Dems; that flawed challengers and a radioactive GOP brand will cause any building Republican wave to break before it flips the Senate. This isn’t spin, these are authentically different assessments – and only one can be right.

HAPPENING TODAY – EX-IM PUSHES BACK – The Export-Import Bank of the United States, which faces a reauthorization fight on the Hill ahead of a Sept. 30 deadline, kicks off its annual conference in Washington. Conservative groups, including the Club for Growth and Heritage Action, are pushing lawmakers to axe the Ex-Im Bank. Today, Ex-Im Chairman Fred Hochberg will mount a vigorous defense: “If [Ex-Im] were to shut down, Russia China, and other countries would gladly snatch up all the opportunities that America would be forfeiting...we can’t let rigid ideologies stand in the way of American jobs and American leadership.” Also appearing at the conference – Cabinet members John Kerry, Tom Vilsack, Penny Pritzker, Ernest Moniz; former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers, Virginia Gov. Terry McAuliffe, Tesla CEO Elon Musk, Wells Fargo CEO John Stumpf, Pemex CEO Emilio Lozoya Austin, former Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman.

ALSO ON THE SKED: “FCC to Propose New 'Net Neutrality' Rules,” by WSJ’s Gautham Nagesh: “The Federal Communications Commission plans to propose new open Internet rules on Thursday that would allow content companies to pay Internet service providers for special access to consumers, according to a person familiar with the proposal. The proposed rules would prevent the service providers from blocking or discriminating against specific websites, but would allow broadband providers to give some traffic preferential treatment, so long as such arrangements are available on ‘commercially reasonable’ terms for all interested content companies.” http://goo.gl/J9gIps

OPEN MIKE – TRANSPORTATION SEC. ANTHONY FOXX sits down with Mike Allen to talk about his task of putting the transportation system on a more certain path, approaching his one-year anniversary assuming office, and how often he’ll attend Nationals games – Watch now:http://politi.co/1nrkEDN

43 ALUMNI NEWS – A friend of the show forwards an invite … “The Bush Center’s Bush-Cheney Alumni Program Formally Announces the Kickoff of the New York City Tri-State Area Bush-Cheney Alumni Group” – NYC-area George W. Bush alumni plan to gather at Chelsea Piers on May 7 for a cocktail reception hosted by Ari Fleischer, Spencer Feissinger and Dana Perino, listed on the invitation as “New York City Tri-State Area Bush-Cheney Alumni Chairs.” The invite is printed on George W. Bush Presidential Center letterhead.

D.C. TRANSITIONS - GARRETT GRAFF LEAVES WASHINGTONIAN MAGAZINE: Staff memo from publisher Cathy Merrill Williams via HuffPost’s Michael Calderone: “When I promoted Garrett to editor in 2009 in the depths of the recession many thought he was too young to take on the challenge and that I was crazy for taking such a risk. Garrett’s first-class intellect and leadership abilities quickly proved the critics wrong. …I have asked Sherri Dalphonse and [Kristen] Hinman to serve as acting co-editors.” http://goo.gl/U7ASFZWhat’s next for Garrett? He told Playbook: “I don't have any concrete plans at this point, but I am looking forward to a new challenge, wherever that may lie. I'm very excited by what's going on in journalism right now, so I hope to continue in media in the future. I'm under contract to Simon & Schuster for my third book, a Cold War history, so I'm sure that'll take up a chunk of my time too.”

PROMOTED! “Delaware Sen. Tom Carper’s office announces: “Emily Spain has been promoted to legislative director after serving as communications director for Sen. Carper’s personal office since 2010 and the Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee since 2013 … ‘As communications director, Emily has served as a trusted advisor whose expertise extended far beyond how to communicate on the issues of the day,’ Sen. Carper said.” http://goo.gl/a9aokL

THIS PRIMARY IS LESS THAN A MONTH AWAY –“Mitch McConnell to hit Matt Bevin on cockfighting” – Manu Raju reports: “The Senate minority leader plans to unveil a 60-second radio spot lampooning his Republican primary opponent for attending a pro-cockfighting event in Corbin, a small town in southeastern Kentucky. … The Louisville NBC affiliate is heavily promoting an exposé it will air Thursday evening showing what politicians ‘really promise’ to cockfighters. The promotion shows a picture of Bevin.” http://goo.gl/bZwKh8The local TV promo:http://youtu.be/K1qn_o6gkW0

PUBLIC SERVICE ANNOUNCEMENT – “FAA to American pilots: Don’t fly in Crimea,” by POLITICO’s Kevin Robillard: “In a notice posted to the Federal Register today, the agency said U.S. airlines and other operators of American planes shouldn’t fly in the Simferopol flight information region around the Crimean capital. The rule, which goes into effect immediately, is necessary to ‘prevent a potential hazard to persons and aircraft engaged in such flight operations,’ the FAA says … The ban will remain in place for one year, the agency said, and will be reevaluated during that time.” http://goo.gl/Hsl0E3

‘THIS GUY’ AWARD GOES TO … Lance Armstrong: ‘Yes, I Feel Like I Won the Races’" by The Editors of Outside magazine: “In his first public appearance since his Oprah confession, Lance Armstrong opens up again about his revoked Tour titles and how life has changed since the doping scandal peaked.” He says “it would be disrespectful to the sport” if there was no winner from 1999 to 2005, when it was a “messy time” and an “arms race.” Now he only rides “occasionally.” Asked what he wants his legacy to be: “I don’t know. I don’t spend a lot of time thinking about that.” http://goo.gl/i1J7tk

DESSERT – THE OTHER ASIA TRIP – “Justin Bieber apologizes for Japan war shrine trip” – That is an actual headline from the AP in Tokyo: Justin Bieber apologized Wednesday to those he offended by visiting a Japanese war shrine, saying he thought it was a beautiful site and only a place of prayer. The Yasukuni Shrine in central Tokyo enshrines 2.5 million war dead, including Japan's 14 convicted war criminals, and operates a war museum that defends Japan's wartime aggression … Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Qin Gang said the pop star should remember China's position on Yasukuni. ‘I hope this Canadian singer, after his visit, can have some knowledge of the Japanese militaristic history of external aggression and their militaristic thinking,’ he said.”http://goo.gl/GHBIFb

** A message from the Government of Canada: Canada is America’s largest oil supplier. Every day Canada provides more oil to America than Saudi Arabia and Venezuela combined. Canada is a reliable and secure partner committed to meeting America’s future energy needs. Canada: America’s best energy partner. Learn more at GoWithCanada.ca