Wednesday, June 11, 2008

Obama now leading McCain 287-227

Checking the latest state polling numbers, Barack Obama now leads John McCain 287-227, with 24 votes up for grabs. Currently this puts Obama outside the margin of error as he is running above the 270 votes needed to win.

This marks a turnaround from a few weeks ago when the Senator from Illinois found himself down to McCain in state to state electoral vote counts. Since then Obama has turned Pennsylvania, Missouri and Ohio for a 52 vote turnaround. Virginia has also gone from "weak GOP" to "exactly tied" while Indiana still remains tied. If the election were held today the Democrats would pick up five states from 2004, the Republicans would get one--a 37 vote shift to the left (with Indiana and Virginia up for grabs).

I'll continue to monitor the polling at electoral-vote.com as the general election heats up.

This Obama pickup coincides with an article in today's Wall Street Journal stating that the GOP is also preparing for big congressional losses in the 2008 elections. One research center predicts Democratic gains of eight to 12 seats in the House and five in the Senate. Another is prediction 10 to 20 in the House and four to seven in the Senate.

The dynamics at work: voters' sharply negative views of President Bush and dismal feelings about the direction of the country, including rising oil and gas prices, a weak economy and fallout from the housing crisis. Even though Congress continues to register low approval ratings, voters overall appear to prefer putting Democrats in charge.

The Republicans have already lost three House seats this year in special elections in Republican-leaning areas. Many in the party are citing this as the canary in the coal mine for the November elections.