Will Ireland vote to rescue Europe?

Irish Euro-enthusiasts are feeling smug. A new opinion poll shows that they enjoy a twotoone lead over their opponents: 46 per cent to 23, with 31 per cent undecided. The Europe Minister, Dick Roche, says that the Oireachtas will ratify the European Constitution Lisbon Treaty next month, allowing for a referendum "in late May or early June" (which almost certainly means that he has chosen the precise date, but wants to keep "No" campaigners guessing up to the last minute).

Ireland is voting on behalf of all of Europe

Pro-treaty forces, if I may use that loaded term in an Irish context, have reason to be confident. Since Ireland's "No" to the Nice Treaty in 2001, they have altered the rules to ensure that such a thing can't happen again. Ireland used to have admirably fair regulations governing on the conduct of referendums. A Referendum Commission was charged with listening to the arguments of both sides, and then summarising them in a pamphlet to be sent to each household. That system was promptly ditched following the Nice vote.

This change means, of course, that all Irish referendums, not just those connected with Brussels, are now unbalanced. It's another demonstration of how the EU is not only undemocratic in itself, but serves also to vitiate democracy within its member states.

"Yes" campaigners have one more thing going for them. By holding a snap vote, they will give voters no time to study the document. Luckily for them, most other countries have been even hastier. Six states have so far ratified the text that they, too, can't possibly have read. By the time Ireland votes, the overwhelming majority of the 26 other members will have accepted the treaty, allowing their Irish auxiliaries to say: "Look, it's too late to stop it. If we vote 'No' we'll have to leave the EU". Oceans of Euro-money will be funneled into the "Yes" campaign to make the same point. Eurocrats will line up to threaten and bully. Already, the leader of the Euro-Greens, Danny Cohn-Bendit, has said that a "No" vote would produce a "big problem", since "Ireland can't have it both ways, it can't receive big subsidies from Europe and then vote against Europe".