Blair urged to woo angry supporters as buoyant Tories close gap

Tony Blair's allies yesterday warned the prime minister that his hopes of winning a secure third term now depend on neutralising Michael Howard's Australian-imported election strategy after the all-but-written-off Conservatives were buoyed by two polls putting them within three points of Labour.

After a bruising month which has seen the Labour election machine wrong-footed over a series of issues, including health checks for immigrants and council tax cuts for pensioners, Mr Blair has been told that he needs to counter the Conservative strategy of galvanising its core vote and persuading Labour supporters to stay at home.

Mr Blair will make a quick response today by using his monthly press conference at No 10 to announce acceptance of a recommendation by the Low Pay Commission to raise the minimum wage above £5 an hour for the first time.

Senior ministers and No 10's pollster, Lord Philip Gould, have concluded they are fighting what one dubbed "the turnout election" in which their hopes rest on remotivating angry and disappointed Labour voters. The sense of urgency follows two polls this week which cut Labour's lead over the Tories to between two and three points.

"The Tory strategy is now clear," said one cabinet member. "They are concentrating on ... encouraging Labour voters not to turn out and on winning by the back door."

But yesterday's cabinet meet ing is said to have been "very calm". Some ministers argue that a closer-than-expected election may force wavering voters into the Labour fold.

Some Labour backbenchers have been dismayed by the Tory surge, widely attributed to Mr Howard's Australian adviser, Lynton Crosby.

In the Labour camp there is also concern that Gordon Brown feels excluded from the campaign planning by No 10 and is lying low. Some MPs believe that a more a engaged chancellor would have punched gaping holes in the James review, which promised to fund tax cuts and public spending from cuts to bureaucracy.

Aides in Downing Street have been heard to complain in recent days that Mr Brown is effectively on strike. "My guess is that he's not on strike, but he's not going to do all he could do," said a veteran MP. "The decision is his and no one else's," said a Blairite minister.

Labour jitters were offset by today's YouGov poll, published in the Daily Telegraph, which put Labour comfortably ahead by 38:32:21% over the Tories and Liberal Democrats.