Friday, January 29, 2016

The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia has released the coincident indexes for the 50 states for December 2015. In
the past month, the indexes increased in 39 states, decreased in seven, and remained stable in four, for a one-month
diffusion index of 64. Over the past three months, the indexes increased in 41 states, decreased in seven, and remained
stable in two, for a three-month diffusion index of 68.

Note: These are coincident indexes constructed from state employment data. An explanation from the Philly Fed:

The coincident indexes combine four state-level indicators to summarize current economic conditions in a single statistic. The four state-level variables in each coincident index are nonfarm payroll employment, average hours worked in manufacturing, the unemployment rate, and wage and salary disbursements deflated by the consumer price index (U.S. city average). The trend for each state’s index is set to the trend of its gross domestic product (GDP), so long-term growth in the state’s index matches long-term growth in its GDP.

Click on graph for larger image.

This is a graph is of the number of states with one month increasing activity according to the Philly Fed. This graph includes states with minor increases (the Philly Fed lists as unchanged).

In December, 41 states had increasing activity (including minor increases).

Five states have seen declines over the last 6 months, in order they are Wyoming (worst), North Dakota, Alaska, Montana, and Louisiana - mostly due to the decline in oil prices.

Here is a map of the three month change in the Philly Fed state coincident indicators. This map was all red during the worst of the recession, and is mostly green now.