A reasonable bet is Hall will score 75-to-80 points in 2013-14.

This past year, Hall got 50 points in 45 games, an excellent rate of production. But he’s young, still improving, as are his teammates. They can do better.

If Hall was fully healthy, and if he improved his even strength play and power play prowess just a bit, and if he got regular time on the penalty kill, and, most of all, if he and his teammates had otherworldly luck converting on their scoring chances, just how many points might he get one year?

My best estimate is that Hall’s maximum possible offensive output for a year would be 105 points.

I’m not saying such a season is in Hall’s future, but that if everything came together for him one year, that’s what he’d score.

Well, first of all, if he’s healthy, he plays 82 games with no nagging injuries.

At the same time, he’s still improving as a player, so that should allow him to increase his already strong even strength scoring chance production by about five per cent, and his power play production by about 10 per cent.

In the end, in that dream season, he’d chip in on about 6.8 scoring chances per game. That would be an increase on the 6.3 per game he chipped in on last season.

Sounds do-able, no?

If he, Jordan Eberle and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins all completely click, and if Hall is consistently able to get off his wicked snap shot from the right face-off circle on the power play, that would see him chip in on more chances. If he got a regular turn on the penalty kill, he’d also get more chances to score that way.

In fact, Hall is right on track for this kind of increased contribution to scoring chances, given the consistent growth in his game.

The hard part: luck

Now comes the hard part, though. The key to his best possible season isn’t just getting better as a player, it’s getting incredibly lucky. How often will he and his teammates convert on their scoring chances?

Will they have the monster luck of a Jordan Eberle in 2011-12? Or the mediocre luck of Eberle in 2013?

Eberle actually attacked better in 2013 than he did in 2011-12. He chipped in on 5.2 scoring chances per game in 2011-12, but raised that to 6.5 chances per game in 2013. His process was better this past season. But he nonetheless scored points at a slower clip in 2013, partly due to poorer luck, and partly because he broke his finger and Nugent-Hopkins hurt his shoulder, so they had trouble finishing off their scoring chances. In 2011-12, he and his teammates cashed in on 18.8 per cent of his scoring chances, in 2013 just 11.9.

Hall had a good luck year in 2013

In Hall’s case, he actually had very good luck in 2013. He and his teammates converted on 17.7 per cent of the scoring chances where Hall had made some contribution. If you take the average conversion rate for the Oilers top skill forwards in 2013, it was 13.6 per cent. Hall out-paced Eberle, Sam Gagner, Ales Hemsky and the rest by quite a bit.

In his best possible year, Hall would have to do even better than that, converting on the same 18.8 per cent of his chances that Eberle did in 2011-12. That kind of conversion rate for Hall would be truly remarkable, fantastic luck, but we are talking about a dream season here, his best possible season.

If Hall can muster 6.8 chances per game, and he and his teammates can convert on 18.8 per cent of them, that works out to 105 points in an 82-game season.

How likely is that to happen? It’s unlikely.

Fact is, I’m not sure. I don’t have enough scoring chance data over time to know.

I think it’s a decent bet that in the next five years — if he doesn’t get knocked out by major injury — Hall will have one or two 90-plus point seasons. The stars would have to align to get over 100 points in a year, with all of his teammates playing fully healthy the entire year. That is possible but not likely, given how hard NHLers go at it these days.

As for this coming year, a more reasonable bet is Hall will indeed raise his scoring chances rate close to 6.8 per game, and he’ll convert on about 14 per cent of those chances — about what we’ve seen for skill players on the Oilers in the past two seasons — which would give him 78 points in 82 games in 2013-14.

Bad luck would give him about 10 points less and good luck about 10 points more. Now, 68 to 88 points is a big range for Hall, but that’s how the puck bounces.

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