posted at 7:45 pm on April 3, 2012 by Allahpundit

Fully 98 delegates are at stake and Romney’s probably going to win nearly all of them. The polls in Washington and Maryland close at 8 p.m. ET, but don’t worry about that. It’s a foregone conclusion that Romney will win both and, maybe, crack 50 percent in doing so. (PPP’s Maryland poll from a few days ago had him ahead of Santorum 52/27.) Wisconsin, where the polls close at 9 p.m. ET, is shakier but that looks like a Romney win too. At last check, PPP had it 43/36, which is right in line with where most of the polls of the state have been over the past month. Santorum’s overperformed his polling before on election night so there’s a slim, slim chance for one last “Not Romney” hurrah, but this is where Mitt likely starts to wrap things up. Says RCP political guru Sean Trende:

What about Tuesday night? Here we are beginning to see signs of movement. The Maryland polling suggests that Romney should receive about 56 percent of the three-way vote, while [my demographic] model suggested 49 percent would be more in line with other states.

Similarly, Wisconsin should be a close race — akin to Ohio — with Romney receiving 43 percent of the vote. For a while, it appeared that Santorum would be exceeding expectations there. But Romney now leads by about eight points, with polls suggesting he should receive around 49 percent of the three-way vote. Again, this suggests an over-performance of about six-seven points.

If this happens, taken together with Illinois and Maryland, we might conclude that Romney really has managed to break out of his demographic rut, at least in the Midwest and Northeast. This is significant, given the large cache of delegates at stake in those regions (though many of these states have already voted).

In other words, the usual rules of the race — Romney wins urbanites, Santorum wins evangelicals, etc — seem to have relaxed a bit as Republicans slowly reconcile themselves to a Romney nomination. Tonight’s results could be further evidence of that. Santorum still leads by six points in his home state of Pennsylvania but I’ll be curious to see how those polls shift if Mitt cleans up today, and especially if he does better with rural voters than expected. Romney already has four paid staffers working PA and will send lots more tomorrow in hopes of finishing off Santorum there on April 24. If Santorum’s lead is already down to mid-single-digits, what’ll it be after Romney hits the trail there and starts spending ad dollars and gets the positive buzz of a trifecta in WI, MD, and DC tonight?

Update: Bad tidings for Team Sweater Vest from the early Wisconsin exit polls: Evangelical turnout is slightly down from 2008 and more than 80 percent of voters expect Romney to be the nominee. But what about Santorum’s withering attacks on RomneyCare and ObamaCare? Quote:

Though Rick Santorum tried to make the case in Wisconsin that Mitt Romney’s record on health care “uniquely disqualified” him to take on Mr. Obama on the issue, Republican primary voters are closely divided in whom they trust more to handle the issue. Almost a third trust Mr. Romney more to handle health care policy; almost as many have more confidence in Mr. Santorum’s abilities in this field.

That may reflect Mr. Romney’s particular situation when it comes to the federal health care law that came under intense scrutiny at the Supreme Court last week.

According to the WSJ, Romney’s also beating Santorum 51/38 among voters who decided in just the last few days. A quote to ponder from a Wisconsin voter while we wait for more: “I very much hope that he gets the nomination and we get this thing settled soon. These guys are kind of tearing each other apart in the process. I think it’s a circular firing squad at this point.”

Update: To no one’s surprise, Maryland and Washington are called promptly for Romney at 8 p.m. Stand by for exit polls.

Update: Here’s the Maryland exit poll. As Trende guessed, we’re seeing some demographic surprises. Santorum’s supposed to be the blue-collar candidate, and yet:

He’s also supposed to be the conservative candidate, and yet:

This is the one that’ll get attention tomorrow, though, assuming that these numbers hold (exit poll data will be adjusted throughout the evening):

Per the exits, Romney’s right on the cusp of 50 percent in the state.

Update: We’ve got nearly an hour until Wisconsin results and then probably an hour after that before the state is called, so chew on this important and worrisome poll data from Rasmussen in the meantime. Dude, I’m nervous:

A majority of Wisconsin voters now support the effort to recall Republican Governor Scott Walker.

A new Rasmussen Reports statewide survey shows that, if the recall election was held today, 52% of Likely Voters would vote to recall Governor Walker and remove him from office. Forty-seven percent (47%) would vote against the recall and let him continue to serve as governor.

Update: And that’s that: Fox News calls Wisconsin for Romney. Here’s the exit poll. Santorum did manage to win very-low-income voters and evangelicals (narrowly) this time, but Romney won conservatives and strong tea-party supporters. The end is near for Team Sweater Vest. And from what I’m hearing on Twitter, he may be close to acknowledging it: Apparently he referenced Reagan’s 1976 campaign, in which he finished second to Gerald Ford, in his concession speech. Is he shifting focus to 2016 now?

Update: Nope, turns out I’m wrong. Patrick Ishmael e-mails to say that Santorum’s been using the Reagan ’76 line for a few weeks at least.

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I don’t think so. Newt is probably looking to have help retiring his debts and preserve his viability as a speaker, commentator and author. A cabinet position paying less than $ 200,000 a year is not something that will interest him when his annual take nowadays is over 3 million.

He is not going to win any of the states (DC not a state) he won here tonight

liberal4life on April 4, 2012 at 12:14 AM

If I remember my liberal whining correctly there was much wailing and gnashing of teeth about how Obama’s win in Idaho in 2008 was such that he got a bigger delegate edge out of that state than Hillary got out of her win in the battleground state of Ohio. Were you part of the bunch complaining about that win in a state the Democrat candidate was never going to carry (and didn’t) in the fall?

He is not going to win any of the states (DC not a state) he won here tonight

liberal4life on April 4, 2012 at 12:14 AM

Because Romney would not be running against Santorum, Newt, Paul and Barry in the red states that he lost. He will be running against Barry alone in a head to head competition. Romney will win against Barry in those red states.

Cindy Munford on April 4, 2012 at 1:02 AM
I thought you meant the story that Mitt won 3 more contests. I’m not going to disrespect your opinion, mine is that 2/3 of the states have voted and the majority of remaining delegates will go to Romney.

There are 55 primaries total (50 states plus the 4 territories plus DC), ignoring the fact that Missouri somehow inserted itself into the schedule 3 times.

As of tonight, there are 20 contests left. That’s means that either 63.6% of the primaries have been held (if you count Missouri once), or 65% if you count Missouri 3 times with 2 already completed. Either way, Santorum is wrong and we’re down to the final 1/3 of states, 11 or 12 of which (including 2 of the big 3) favor Romney.

Three times? Kind of pushy! About the only upside I see at this point is that a lot of voters feel like the primary votes count for a change.

Cindy Munford on April 4, 2012 at 1:35 AM

Actually kind of funny and mysterious. I understand that Missouri decided to switch from a primary to a caucus system, but didn’t get around to repealing the law that mandated the primary until too late, so they had to hold it as a non-binding event.

That doesn’t explain the second event, which was a caucus and was also apparently non-binding, or the third one which is coming up and is also described as non-binding (although I think it may select state delegates who then select convention delegates at some later event).

To paraphrase someone who commented a few weeks ago (I wish I could remember who) on this site…what are they waiting for, a chili cook-off?

There is no doubt that this primary season has gone on for longer than is normal, by deliberate design of the RNC. Time will tell whether that was a good idea or not, but it should lay to rest the idea that “they” have been trying to shove a candidate down our throats. Should, but probably won’t.

all I go by is the raw numbers and with 71% of the vote in romneycare is up 4% or 14,000 votes. You realize he outspent santorium by $5 million in the state and has the entire state get out the vote organization and yet he’s ahead by 4 freakin percent.

Mittbot, if you cost us the general and I’m stuck with satan for 4 more years I’ll hound you too.

Danielvito on April 3, 2012 at 10:49 PM

Oh, so St. Rick was grarr-ann-teed the win, but bad ‘ol Mittens just went and out-spent, and out-organized him–something we KNOW won’t happen with the Chicago machine in the real election/…Grow up Dannyboy, and see what most of us have reluctantly come to realize…Mittens is the last man standing. Save that vitriol for Oclueless, and close ranks. What is your goal–actually? Is it to lick your wounds, and keep yowling, or join in the fight. How much do you love your country, after all…

Corrosion, I mean Rusty the chump, you are a great reason why Romneycare has no chance to win in Nov.. Instead of trying to get a conservative like me to vote for your liberal, you do everthing in your power to piss me off. keep it up, with people like me sitting this election out your binky has a fine chance to win!

Danielvito on April 3, 2012 at 11:17 PM

If I see ONE more childish, “I’m going to sit home on election day and pout” remark….and what’s the matter, did your binky drop out while you were furiously typing? Calling childish names is a sign of a loser…GROW THE FLUKE UP!

HA- this moron, rusty allen uses his real name as a nickname, this my friends is a romneycare supporter.

Danielvito on April 3, 2012 at 11:32 PM

And THIS my friends is a rabid, frothing at the mouth, St Ricky supporter, howling his frustration at the moon. Guess I shall call you a moonbat, cause the moon is apparently bringing out the lunatic in you…at least I’m giving you the benefit of the double that you have gone crazy with grief that your boy is a loser….Hell, each one of my pick’s have fallen by the wayside, but most of us did not migrate to Ricky’s place…have you ever wondered about that?

I have waited until the delegate count fortold our future…own it little one. George Washington and General Patton would have left you behind in the mud, or shot you for the traiter you have become…You dont care about your country–your are just nursing your wounded pride. You sore losers make me sick…what with all your self-righteousness. Funny–that’s one of the reasons I never liked Ricky–he was always so “self-righteous”…oh, and petty–as witnessed in his speech tonight.

If the fight is about beating Obama and hoping for the best, then fine…go all in for the Democrat in (R) clothing. But the fight must be about saving this nation. If you think Mittens is the guy to do it, good luck with that. I truly hope you are right. I just don’t think you are. Same destination, slower train.

If the fight is about beating Obama and hoping for the best, then fine…go all in for the Democrat in (R) clothing. But the fight must be about saving this nation. If you think Mittens is the guy to do it, good luck with that. I truly hope you are right. I just don’t think you are. Same destination, slower train.

swinia sutki on April 4, 2012 at 5:21 AM

I understand what your saying … I have serious reservations about Mitt as well ..
however at this point he is the best we got …
other IMHO better candidates were unable to stay the course
because of either/or : lack of money …. lack of traction … lack of “fire in the belly” … MSM killing their background … for many reasons …
we have these four to pick from to face Obama …. and it is gonna be Mitt…
I dont like it … but it is what it is ….
this nation’s future is too important … I have buried too many friends
to see it go the way Barry wants it to go …. will Mitt do any better ?? Maybe ..
he sure as heck can’t do worse ….

Ah yes, some “clean sweep” – Maryland which has become another Massachusetts and is a blue and corrupt as they get. Another state Romney will never win. And DC where Santorum was not allowed to be on the ballot but Jon Huntsman, who isn’t even in the race anymore, was. Some handicap tilt for Romney, but hey, he did win by the same margin in DC as democrat, Marion Barry, who was re-elected. Just shows how impotent the DC republican party is. A conservative woman commentator nailed it last night. Romney is not cracking 50% with his current political party. We’re toast if he becomes the nominee!

Mitt Romney is a self-described Progressive that is Pro-Choice, believes in man-made Global Warming and someone that wants to use the power of the Federal Government to nudge people into certain behaviors. He’s also the author of state run Healthcare that was used for OBAMACARE template.

All of this is out there in his own words, go to youtube and type any of it.

Other than the fact that the rank-and-file gop voters are fine with nominating another Dole/McCain redux it’s a great night for Conservatives.

I hope we still have a country left to try and save in 2016.

Gates of Hell media/White House re-election firestorm to open up on Mitt in 5…..4…..3…..

We’ve got no chance come November. No way Romney beats Obama. Maybe if they pick West as VP, that might help. Other than that I can’t see anything other than a victory for O. I just hope America can survive another 4 years of Obama. Our best hope is to get control of the senate and just restrict the amount of damage he can do.

What is even more disturbing is the total lack of enthusiasm or joy in any of the Rmoney “wins”. Instead there are a lot of insults and vitriol aimed at Newt Gingrich and Rick Santorum contrary to their claims that Obama is Rmoney’s target. They do pretty well against their fellow republicans using their Alinsky tactics but we’ll see if they can out democrat the democrats. That’s why his speeches sound so hollow to me now. If Romney does buy the nomination, I’ll resent the fact that we’ll be stuck with a John Kerry in this election, probably the same hair dresser, manicurist/pedicurist/, masseuse, tanning salon, pomposity and we’ll be denied any excitement and enthusiasm for our candidate in what should have been an exciting, victorious, and decisive turning point for the republican party all around.

A note to Hot Gas Mitt-haters…..go out and read some non-political news website comments when the article is about something Obama has said or done. It will amaze you at the thirst for ANYONE BUT OBAMA out there. People are pissed off and they will vote in the millions to get rid of Obama. I have friends that aren’t even political, some that never even voted and they are making plans to vote OBAMA OUT !!! This SCOTUS attack and the fact that Obama has proven to not even understand the US Constitution is eye-opening for many. President Willard “Mitt” Romney Jan 20. 2012 – Ricky, stop the insanity, get out while you still have a reputation in the GOP…..NOW……

I’m a Newtbot, and even I know that he has become inconsequential…his mealsy bit of voters will NOT put Stl Ricky over the top in delegates….

lovingmyUSA on April 4, 2012 at 4:41 AM

Newt has been inconsequential for months.. which leaves me to believe he’s playing the stalking horse for Romney and looking for a cabinet position in return. I find it amusing that nobody calls for Newt or Paul to drop out, yet howls for the second place guy to drop out come daily.. which also seem to bolster this theory.

I don’t think they have enough delegates to make an impact so they are hoping if they ignore them they will go away. From what I understand Newt is trying to have input on the Platform, which probably wouldn’t be a bad idea.

I have never understood the Republican tactic of pandering to the moderates or the Gov. Romney supporters who insist not only taking on the mantle of superiority but insult needed voters. Someone truly “superior” would be smarter.

A note to Hot Gas Mitt-haters…..go out and read some non-political news website comments when the article is about something Obama has said or done.

BabysCatz on April 4, 2012 at 9:12 AM

That’s a rather presumptuous, ignorant and haughty statement… Do you really think people who like political discussions live in a bubble? And, who hates Mitt? I dislike him as a candidate because of all the uncertainty surrounding his views and politics, and have no feelings whatsoever towards him as a person. I think I’d like having lunch with his wife but I’d much rather have a different candidate to vote for this fall. The insulting lectures by Mitt-lovers will do more harm to his candidacy than you will ever know.

No some of them are long term azzes. I’ve decided I’m not going to hold his HotAir supporters against Gov. Romney. Still don’t like the Dole/McCain/Romney election strategy but I’m hoping to be proven wrong.

I have never understood the Republican tactic of pandering to the moderates or the Gov. Romney supporters who insist not only taking on the mantle of superiority but insult needed voters. Someone truly “superior” would be smarter.

Cindy Munford on April 4, 2012 at 9:26 AM

What a bunch of absolute, utter baloney. Cindy, you are a total phony, and I’m not afraid to say it. The truth is that for months the HotAir comment section has been almost entirely “bash Romney” with countless attacks on anyone who dares to point out that Romney has a much better chance of defeating Obama than would candidates like Newt Gingrich or Rick Santorum. Romney supporters are called all kinds of vile, obscene names and are insulted in the most personal terms by these handfuls of weird, rabid haters, who usually don’t seem all that bright.

This small but vocal group of HotAir commenters likes to claim the mantle of “true conservatism” as a way to differentiate themselves from others, but the only way a lot of them stand out on this site is through their childish, dumb insults. The same goes for some of these Palin worshipers, who insist that only Sarah Palin (who isn’t running and who, while a patriotic lady right in many of her criticisms of Obama, could never win a general election campaign, anyway) can save us all. All these sad cases can do, in many cases, is just repeat the same lines from their favorite talk show hosts like Mark Levin.

I’m sick of phony, sanctimonious little commenters like you telling supporters of particular candidates to mind their manners and to keep their mouths muzzled, while at the same time you quietly snicker as the thumb-sucking crybaby supporters of the losing candidates hurl vile, sexist and other personal insults at anyone who has the gall to post a comment complimentary of our soon-to-be nominee.

I’m sick of phony, sanctimonious little commenters like you telling supporters of particular candidates to mind their manners and to keep their mouths muzzled, while at the same time you quietly snicker as the thumb-sucking crybaby supporters of the losing candidates hurl vile, sexist and other personal insults at anyone who has the gall to post a comment complimentary of our soon-to-be nominee.

I don’t bash Gov. Romney, I question his supporters and what they obviously consider persuasive tactics. And this just in, an anonymous commenter on a blog having the bravery to call another anonymous commenter on a blog a phony, hardly qualifies you as Genghis Khan.

What a bunch of absolute, utter baloney. Cindy, you are a total phony, and I’m not afraid to say it. The truth is that for months the HotAir comment section has been almost entirely “bash Romney” with countless attacks on anyone who dares to point out that Romney has a much better chance of defeating Obama than would candidates like Newt Gingrich or Rick Santorum. Romney supporters are called all kinds of vile, obscene names and are insulted in the most personal terms by these handfuls of weird, rabid haters, who usually don’t seem all that bright.

This small but vocal group of HotAir commenters likes to claim the mantle of “true conservatism” as a way to differentiate themselves from others, but the only way a lot of them stand out on this site is through their childish, dumb insults. The same goes for some of these Palin worshipers, who insist that only Sarah Palin (who isn’t running and who, while a patriotic lady right in many of her criticisms of Obama, could never win a general election campaign, anyway) can save us all. All these sad cases can do, in many cases, is just repeat the same lines from their favorite talk show hosts like Mark Levin.

I’m sick of phony, sanctimonious little commenters like you telling supporters of particular candidates to mind their manners and to keep their mouths muzzled, while at the same time you quietly snicker as the thumb-sucking crybaby supporters of the losing candidates hurl vile, sexist and other personal insults at anyone who has the gall to post a comment complimentary of our soon-to-be nominee.

bluegill on April 4, 2012 at 10:22 AM

You use too many adjectives to be considered a good writer. The overuse of adjectives makes your writing cluttered and overblown.

Were I your English teacher, I’d tell you to back off the Faulkner obsession and try again.

All excellent points, many of us have found both of the last two elections sadly wanting in the area of candidates. It’s not personal against any of them. I am sure Gov. Romney will make a fine president and he will have my vote to give him the chance.