IATA: “Passenger yields have still not recovered to pre-recession levels, outside the US, and gains are slowing. Airline stock prices – sensitive to the cycle – fell further. The Bloomberg global airlines index was down 4% last month, and is down 15% so far this year. Airlines are expected to be hit more than most sectors by the economic slowdown", Source: IATA statement, 03-Aug-2011.

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The first commercial flight of the Bombardier CS300 on 14-Dec-2016, operated by airBaltic from Riga to Amsterdam, will be a major milestone for the Canadian manufacturer's new C Series aircraft programme. Three CS100 aircraft are already in service with SWISS, so the airBaltic flight will mean that both variants of the C Series are finally in commercial operation.

The programme is Bombardier's first wholly new aircraft development, aimed at the 100 to 150-seat market segment and offering advantages of fuel efficiency, cabin space, noise and emissions. Bombardier once targeted 2013 for entry into service, but has been dogged by problems and delays. In 2015, Bombardier seemed to have overstretched itself. The C Series received no new orders during the year and Bombardier was forced to seek investment from the Province of Québec to rescue the programme.

In 2016 the company has recovered to win a net 117 new orders, its highest annual total, bringing the programme total to 360. However, competition is cut-throat, with Airbus, Boeing and Embraer all having new developments of existing products in the same space as the C Series. Bombardier's breakthrough orders from Air Canada and Delta in 2016 required heavy price discounts.

After two years of weak demand and pricing, some signs of stabilisation are emerging in Brazil; however the country’s two largest airlines are adopting an understandably cautious tone in their assessment of the operating environment. Although both LATAM Airlines Brazil and Gol have significantly reduced their domestic capacity during the last year and a half, both airlines have concluded that some excess supply remains in the market place. Fast-growing Azul has opted to slow its capacity growth in 2016, but Brazil’s fourth largest airline Avianca Brazil has continued growth in order to build its market share within the country.

LATAM Airlines Brazil also believes its performance on routes between the US and Brazil is improving, which is a similar conclusion drawn by US airlines operating between the two countries. For LATAM, the improved performance is offsetting some weakness on other long haul routes from its Spanish-speaking countries.

Neither airline has offered specific capacity guidance for 2017, but LATAM Airlines Brazil and Gol are likely to keep their supply restraint intact. Pricing in the domestic market has yet to stabilise, and competitive capacity actions will result in those airlines keeping their own ASK increases at bay in order to sustain a favourable supply/demand balance.