Sunday, 30 June 2013

Crude is still holding the 8x1 which is bullish but last week's candle was a bearish engulfing candle.I lean to the view that we get a fast move down but it needs to break the bullish angles first, Can we really have a fast move up when gold is crashing and deflation fears growing ?

Thanks to TraderMoe for this link. I frankly find it astounding that only now are academics beginning to consider that monetary policy can create credit bubbles.Where have these guys been living the last 30 years ?

Friday, 28 June 2013

I haven't commented on gold's recent falls,which are quite frankly astounding.One can read about the conspiracy theories (like the interesting article yesterday by Jesse's Cafe) but frankly I dont want to get drawn into that emotional quagmire :-)
Luckily I was cautious just from looking at the charts and haven't recommended a buy for some time (the last setup failed and I had noted the bearish weekly chart) I did believe that physical prices were not following paper down but now some are saying this is not the case.I do believe gold will recover strongly and make new highs in the next 2-3 years but there is no technical evidence for that currently,it is a macro view because I dont believe we are anywhere near the end of Central banks printing money

here are the weekly Gann angles and 2 big Gann resistance levels figured off the 2 major lows in this bull campaign

The declining 2x1 is in charge until it isn't
1515 is 50% retracement....a strong bull will stay above this.The angle support is 1498 and rising 5 pts every week.I'm leaning toward a fast move down to 1500-20 area if we get confirmation of a 3rd LH on the daily chart

looks like a small reversal bar (inverted hammer in candle terminology) at 162 which is the first 1/8 level above 144 (square of 144) It really is bears' for the taking now,with the angles and moving averages all set up.....will they drop the ball again ?

someone asked me where to put your stop if you are long this stock.First I am not a licensed investment advisor but speaking from a purely technical perspective I would operate from the assumption that we have gapped up out of a base formation and that it "should" break upwards and will be supported by the 20 amd 40 dma so you could trail a stop under one of the moving aves depending on your risk tolerance. I would probably abort the bullish view if the lower (upward sloping trendline) broke

So here’s something that has turned out to be prescient – from David Stockman’s The Great Deformation,
Chapter 23. The stock market in 2007 “had been taken over by
white-collar financial hoodlums who needed a trading fix every day” but
then were “asserting an entitlement” to policy actions “to keep the
casino running at full tilt,” he wrote. The Fed stepped in, and by “the
second week of October the market was up 10 percent, enabling the
S&P 500 to reach its historic peak of 1,565....” On Monday, its
intraday low was 1,561. Read.... David Stockman: When The Fed Capitulated To Financial Hoodlums

Saturday, 22 June 2013

the break from this triangle should be a huge move...I put in some bull angles for the time being but will add bear angles if we weaken from here.This looks bullish for the time being but the monthly candle has a long tail at the moment,which is bearish

last weeks candle was a bearish engulfing.Last weeks high looks like a good stop for swing trades

from a Gann perspective it would be unusual if this was "the top" as
the last range was bigger than the preceeding one (normally tops are
preceded by contracting ranges). Does this mean Nenner's call was wrong ?

I am experimenting with Gann angles based on 0.618 and the 1x1 is offering support currently,along with the 2007 high, 157.52. I do think it will break but may take a while.Lots of things seem to point to a low late July

I posted this a few weeks ago.The combination of murrey math and Gann 50% off the low nailed an important looking top for the French index. Fundamentally France has a lot of problems and I like the downside potential here