INTRODUCTION. Part I. ‘Geesh! I hate it when we make a mistake; but here’s the correction to the Year 2015 total HUD-Code home shipment total.’

With that said, let’s move onto WHO dominates the National Market Share of new manufactured housing units delivered. Prepare to be surprised, maybe dismayed.

And Part II answers the question some blog floggers (readers) have asked: ‘Why continue to point out the ‘generally small difference’ between HUD-Code new home shipment numbers distributed monthly, for a fee, by the Institute for Building Technology & Safety (‘IBTS’) & reported similarly by HUD, MHARR, & COBA7®; unlike that published by MHI?’ The reason may astound you…

I.

ERRATUM & MORE…

In an earlier blog posting we announced the total number of new HUD-Code manufactured homes ‘shipped’ during year 2016 – and told you not to pay attention to any other figure offered by any other national advocacy group representing our industry. Well, it turns out we picked the wrong number off the monthly tally sheets COBA7® maintains, containing # data we pay to receive from the Institute for Building Technology & Safety (‘IBTS’) – the same folk HUD, MHARR, & MHI patronize for identical data! By the way; would YOU like to be privy to new HUD-Code home shipment ‘stats’ each month? Simply contact Pam Brillhart at IBTS via (703) 481-2000, extension # 260. Yes, it’s that simple; and Now You Know…

The corrected figure? 70,544 new HUD-Code home were shipped during year 2015! This is the total we’ll soon be writing into the ‘Information Briefing Sheet’, and ‘State of the Manufactured Housing Industry & LLLCommunity Asset Class’ SSRDs (Signature Series Resource Documents) published and distributed by COBA7® throughout the year.

Unfortunately, that’s not the end of the story. While COBA7®, MHARR, & HUD generally arrive at the same annual shipment total – by simply adding IBTS 12 monthly figures together, one national advocacy body performs an added calculation each month, involving ‘destination pending’ homes, that distorts their published number relative to the MHIndustry’s official tally. So, just be aware – and beware, using anything other than 70,544 new HUD-Code housing shipments during year 2015, is INCORRECT.

The first three firms listed on IBTS’ ‘Top 10 Production & Market Share by Corporation’ chart are, as one would expect, the ‘Big Three C’ companies: Clayton Homes with 32,069 new home shipments; Cavco, Inc. with 9,726; & Champion Homes with 8,674 new HUD-Code homes shipped during year 2015.

Clayton Homes’ shipment total represents 45 percent of national market share; Cavco, Inc., @ 13.7 percent; and, Champion Homes @ 12.2 percent. Taken together, the three firms garner 71 percent of the national MH market share during 2015. The remaining 29 percent of national MH market share is divided among seven other HUD-Code home manufacturers.

Now, here’s the questionable ‘total shipments’ number COBA7® uncovered: 70,664 new HUD-Code homes shipped during year 2015. What? That’s 120 more new HUD-Code homes than the 70,544 IBTS reported during the same 12 month period! And no one seems to have a ‘definitive answer’ as to the genesis of that number on the Market Share report, other than to opine it has to do with Destination Pending – labeled homes present on all monthly shipment reports. So, sorry to say, yet another mystery clouding HUD-Code manufactured housing scorekeeping. And when you get right down to it, no fewer than three different HUD-Code home shipment totals for year 2015. The only one that counts: 70,544!

Comparing national market shares, here’s an interesting, albeit inexact, juxtaposition with another business type:

Given the ‘Big Three C’ firms, during 2015, cornered 71 percent of the national manufactured housing market share; how’s that compare with national market share among mega banks in the U.S. during 2015?

According to Consumer Reports magazine, January 2017, “…four mega banks hold about 40 percent of all U.S. commercial banking assets.” The four mega banks? Bank of America, Chase, Citibank, & Wells Fargo.

So, in the manufactured housing industry, three firms control 71 percent of national market share. Among mega banking institutions, four banks control 40 percent of their national market share.

II.

MONTHLY ECONOMIC REPORTS Compared: MHI & COBA7®

MHI @ 17 March 2016 Headline: “5,769 New HUD-Code Homes Shipped in January 2016 – Up 16.7 Percent from (4942) January 2015.”

MHI @ 17 March 2016, opening sentence: “In January 2016, 5,769 new manufactured homes were shipped, an increase of 16.7 percent from January 2015, and (sic) an increase of 72 homes or 1.7 percent compared to December 2015.”

COBA7® @ 17 March 2016, opening sentence: “In January 2016, 5,862 new manufactured homes were shipped, an increase of 17.9 percent from January 2015, an increase of 205 homes or 3.6 percent compared to December 2015.” (Using IBTS # data)

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So, there you have it, headline and line by line comparisons of quasi (‘almost’) official (‘properly authorized’ – by whom?) new HUD-Code housing shipment numbers tallied and reported, in the first instance by MHI; in the second instance by IBTS, HUD, MHARR, & COBA7®.

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Bottom line? When will HUD, MHI, MHARR, & COBA7® stop confusing career & appointed Washington bureaucrats, dues-paying members of national MH advocacy entities, corporate stakeholders, legislators & regulators, as well as historians, with their inability to calculate and report the same statistical benchmarks for reference and posterity?
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In January, it was the 27th annual ALLEN REPORT, a.k.a. ‘Who’s Who Among Land-lease-lifestyle Community Owners/operators Located Throughout North America!’ the first of a dozen Signature Series Resource Documents (‘SSRD’) researched & distributed by the Community Owners (7 Part) Business Alliance® each month of the year.

In February, it was the ‘Official State of the Manufactured Housing Industry & LLLCommunity Asset Class’ outline SSRD, routinely used by corporate executives, the trade press, and state MHAssociation executives to keep stakeholders, employees, readers, and members informed about ‘what’s really happening’ – and ‘not happening’, throughout the industry and among the unique, income-producing properties throughout the U.S. and Canada.

In March, it’s the ‘18th National Registry of ALL Lenders’ SSRD. Because the new edition is released every March, it’s not a surprise how many requests are made for it before being released as a lagniappe in that month’s issue of the Allen Letter professional journal – the circulation vehicle of choice for ALL 12 SSRDs created by COBA7®. In any event, this year’s 18th edition boasts no fewer than 26 lenders and loan brokers specializing in acquisition funding and refinancing of land-lease-lifestyle communities, form coast-to-coast throughout the U.S. And not only that, there’re dozens of sources for chattel capital, when financing new and resale home transactions on-site in LLLCommunities. This latter feature is prepared annually, for inclusion in the National Registry, by Rishel Consulting, headquartered in Springfield, IL. And capping off the report is the latest technical information available relative to lease-option methodology in the LLLCommunity environment. Tying all this salient information together is a fairly in depth summary of where commercial lending ‘has been’ during the previous 12 months, and where to expect it to head during the months ahead.

How does one obtain a copy of the ‘18th annual National Registry of ALL Lenders’? Simply affiliate, at the Option II ($544.95/year) with COBA7®! To do so, gives one access to 12 monthly issues of the aforementioned Allen Letter professional journal, and at least a dozen SSRDs, certainly the three just described – as well as the ‘Who Ya Gonna Call in 2016?’ directory of at least 40 freelance consultants who serve the MHIndustry & LLLCommunity asset class nationwide. And the SSRD after that is the sole directory of MHIndustry & LLLCommunity trade print and online media, as well as an overview of all networking websites! To get on board, simply phone the Official MHIndustry HOTLINE: (877) MFD-HSNG or 633-4764.

And in May, it’ll be the 17th annual ‘Who Ya Gonna Call in 2016?’ SSRD – COBA7®s much-requested directory of 50+/- freelance consultants serving the MHIndustry & LLLCommunities nationwide. Should YOU be listed therein? If so, leave a voice mail message via (317) 346-7156. And if you affiliate with COBA7® by then, you’ll automatically receive this valuable SSRD as well.

By now it should be apparent: if you own one or more LLLCommunities, and are active in any segment of the manufactured housing industry, affiliation with COBA7® is all but a ‘must’ for YOU – to be informed via the Allen Letter each month, along with the dozen or more SSRDs that accompany Option II & III affiliation. Option III? That’s $944.95/year. For what? The aforementioned newsletter, dozen SSRDs, and the Allen CONFIDENTIAL! business newsletter…the ‘MH news before it happens & that you won’t read elsewhere’!

II.

Six Special Places to Be During 2016!

This is the time of year when responsible, forward looking corporate executives and budding – experienced entrepreneurs plan which educational, networking, and deal-making events to patronize during the months ahead – till year’s end. This is not an easy task, given the sheer number of regional and national events now filling manufactured housing and land-lease-lifestyle community calendars. Following are the five major events I plan to patronize and or host during the year ahead:

• Manufactured Housing Congress. 3-5 May 2016 at Caesar’s Palace in Las Vegas. Tuesday features an annual golf tournament and LLLCommunity forum – with a separate registration fee. Trade Show Exhibits & Seminars – with separate registration fee, occur on Wednesday & Thursday. Read the March 2016 issue of The Journal for details. If you’re selling new HUD-Code homes within one or more LLLCommunities, don’t miss the ‘Six Right Ps of Marketing!’ Wednesday afternoon, 2 – 3:30PM. This is a timely prelude to the ‘Two Days of Plant Tours & Home Sales Seminars’ at the RV/MH Hall of Fame in Elkhart, IN., on 25 & 26 May 2016. In any event, attendees at this Wednesday afternoon will receive a very special, never before distributed, durable training aid containing the ‘Six Right Ps of Marketing’! To register, phone (703) 558-0400.

• Manufactured Housing Manager® class, on 17 May in Oak Brook, Illinois. What’s so special about this particular one day class? Unlike another property management training & certification program, that’s apparently ‘going online’, this one continues to be taught in a classroom setting by individuals actively owning/operating one or more LLLCommunities, and who’re already MHM®s! Cost is only $250.00/person. There’s no test involved. And when you leave the class with a copy of the classic text, Landlease Community Management, in hand, you join more than 1,000 other MHM®s presently owing/managing this unique, income-producing property type. To register, phone (312) 528-3423.

• Two Days of Plant Tours & Home Sales Seminars. 25 & 26 May 2016, at the RV/MH Heritage Foundation’s Hall of Fame, Museum & Library facility in Elkhart, IN. This is an inaugural event for the MHIndustry & LLLCommunity realty asset class! Designed and intended to motivate small to mid-sized LLLCommunities to begin and increase, if they haven’t already, the number of new HUD-Code homes they sell, and if need be seller-finance, on-site to fill vacant rental homesites. Registrants indicate beforehand, which of six plant(s) they want to visit during the two day event. And during that same period of time, successful, experienced LLLCommunity owners, will teach four sequential seminars on these four major topics: Getting Ready!, Buying Homes! Selling Homes! Financing Homes! If planned properly, every attendee should be able to visit at least one plant and avail themselves of each of the four seminars, plus consult with other chattel capital professionals and sources who will be present. To secure in ‘invite’, simply phone the Official MHIndustry HOTLINE: (877) MFD-HSNG or 633-4764, or respond by email to this blog posting.

• Have you ever participated in a Think Tank Experience? Probably not, but this is an opportunity to do so! On 1 August 2016, the day of the annual RV/MH Hall of Fame Induction Banquet; again, hosted at the Hall of Fame, Museum & Library facility in Elkhart, IN., the first ever ‘MHAlive!’ event will take place between 10AM & 2PM. Co-moderators: George Allen, CPM®Emeitus, MHM®Master; and someone yet to be named. At this point there’s no admission charge anticipated – unless a meeting room other than the library has to be rented. In any event, the agenda for the day is simple: Two hours in the morning will focus on the manufactured housing industry – where it is today – why we’ve endured a 15 year (2000-2015) paradigm shift; and, what might be done to rejuvenate new home shipments to pre-2000 levels. Following a networking lunch, likely off-site, the afternoon session will focus on the LLLCommunity asset class and issues (e.g. effects of property consolidation, defining a ‘fair housing $ proposition’ for homeowners/site lessees, and more). Trade journalists will be present, to popularize the event proceedings, enhancing probability of implementation… Attendance at that evening’s Hall of Fame banquet is not part of the Think Tank Experience, cut attendees are encouraged to be part of the anticipated 500 guest audience. For more information, use aforementioned Official MHIndustry HOTLINE or email. Seriously. This is your opportunity to be heard and to help!

• Celebrate ’25 ,35, & 50’ years! Three anniversaries in one event! The 25th anniversary International Networking Roundtable is scheduled for 7-9September 2016. And, it just so happens, this year also marks the 35th anniversary of the founding of GFA Management, Inc., dba PMN Publishing – platform for COBA7®. And there’s a 50th anniversary included in the mix. In any event, this year’s networking roundtable is special for a plethora of good reasons, not the least being a bona fide ‘State of the Manufactured Housing Industry & LLLCommunity Asset Class!’ Plus, some well-received presenters, from years past, have been invited back to challenge roundtable registrants as we move on into the future of our industry. Also, the ever popular Lenders’ Panel, and now – for the third year in a row, the GSE Hour! And much much more. For a Networking Roundtable brochure, phone (317) 346-7156 or write gfa7156@aol.com

• 6th annual SECO Summit in the South, in Atlanta, GA. (Date pending). Haven’t been before? Make it a point to do so this year! Why? Here’re some very good reasons. There’ll be nearly 200 LLLCommunity owners present from at least 20 states; between three and five new HUD-Code Community Series Homes on display outdoors; two dozen product/service vendors displaying their wares & systems; as well as several specialty skill workshops and educational seminars from which to choose. The SECO event will occur during late October or early November. For more information, contact Genevieve Ketelle via Genevieve@roane.com to have your name placed on the preferred ‘invite’ list!

III.

The TRUMP WAY

March 7th issue of ADVERTISING AGE magazine, on page # 13, posited Donald Trumps success, to date, during the presidential race, as being attributed to these five actions:

INTRODUCTION: Year 2016 = An opportunity for a fresh start within the MHIndustry. Let’s ALL report the same new HUD-Code home shipment # each month of this year!!!

&,

Tired of being ignored by the greater housing market? Read Part II, & YOU will be for sure! The challenge today is, WE have no practical way to ‘Get Our Word Out’ to where it needs to go; to be seen, heard, believed, and acted upon by homebuyer/site lessees!

I.

HEAR YE, HEAR YE!

The Institute for Building Technology & Safety (‘IBTS’); Department of Housing & Urban Development (‘HUD’); Manufactured Housing Association for Regulatory Reform (‘MHARR’); and Community Owners (7 Part) Business Alliance® (‘COBA7®’), agree & announce the HUD-Code manufactured housing industry shipped 5,862 new manufactured homes during the month of January 2016! That’s 893 more homes than were shipped during January 2015. So, we’re off to a Great Start!

WARNING! 5,862 new manufactured homes shipped during the month of January 2016 is the MHIndustry’s ‘sole official count’! There might be another ‘figure’ thrown out for consideration, but it’s not this authoritative one, carefully researched and published by aforementioned IBTS! So, don’t be fooled!

CHALLENGE! Let’s chart new HUD-Code home shipments during 2016, with everyone on the same statistical reporting page – by getting your data here, and from nowhere else. Proof? Just google ‘IBTS-manufactured housing’, to learn this is indeed ‘the source’ for this data we subscribe to, receive, and pass unadulterated onto you!

II.

Housing Industry All-Stars Keep Affordable Factory-built Housing on the Bench & Out of the View of Homebuyers!

The QUESTION: ‘How can HUD-Code manufactured housing be a meaningful part of, let alone the practical solution to, ‘scarce homeownership supply’ & the’ housing affordability crisis’ when it’s not even (ever) part of the public marketing conversation?

The ANSWER: It can’t, and won’t be, as long as quasi-academic papers like ‘Meet Me in the Middle: Supply Trends, Factors, & Product Considerations Impacting Homeownership Affordability Today.’ do not include us in the housing marketing mix! This paper by Todd LaRue, writing for the RCLCO Real Estate Advisory Services firm.

“Instead of targeting the meat of the market with a volume-driven strategy, high land costs, flat income growth, and a shrinking middle class are leading builders to target fewer but more affluent buyers. New for-sale homes are therefore getting bigger and more expensive, prices are rising faster than income, and household formation is outpacing single-family starts. In addition to limiting the affordability of new supply, conventional new detached homes may also be overlooking lifestyle preferences for more walkable, compact communities. As a result, key buyer segments are currently underserved. In pursuing more midscale, mid-priced product, builders may be able to offer more attainably priced housing – while leveraging the additional density to also improve their bottom line.”

As you can see (read), the researcher/author tiptoes all around HUD-Code manufactured housing and land-lease-lifestyle community characteristics of proven affordability, modest density, professional management, and more. Wonder if he’s even aware of our unique product & lifestyle advantages?

Here however, are some of the statistical tidbits found in this document:

• “In 2015, there were over one million new households (formed), and only 630,000 single-family housing starts (U.S. Commerce Dept says 728,000, but NAHB 549,000. Who to believe?), well below the long-term average (of what number?) – NAHB says 1,300,000 new homes per year.” This is what I dislike about business writer’s not footnoting statistics. Can pen anything they want!

• Measuring housing affordability as a multiple of Area Median Income (‘AMI’). “In San Francisco, expect to pay nine times the (area) median income for the median price resale home today.” (e.g. AMI = $77,485 in 2013 X 9 = $697,365). Indianapolis = 2.8 times X AMI, or $52,268 in 2014 X 2.8 = $146,182. To bring this ‘closer to (manufactured) home’, there’s a local housing market nearby where the AMI is $36,000. Using the ‘Ah Ha! & Uh Oh! Worksheet’*1, with variables of site rent @ $300/month, and ‘home only’ chattel loan terms @ 9.5% & 20 years, a prospective homebuyer/site lessee can get into a new HUD-Code home for $68,000 (including site rent), or 1.89X the AMI of $36,000. Yet, even with this much ‘affordability’ potential, manufactured housing continues to be ignored!

• Deterrents to Purchasing a Home, include: 63% @ COST (Hard to find homes in my price range); 39% @ SAVING for a down payment; 35% @ LOW SUPPLY of attractive homes sold fast and got multiple offers; 26% @ KNOWLEDGE – Did not know where to start; 21% ! FINANCING (low credit score or other debt); and, 20% @ PRODUCT (lack of home types wanted, regardless of price).*2 Whew! And here’s manufactured housing – more than able to compete in the deterrent areas of COST, KNOWLEDGE, & PRODUCT. ‘Hey, we’re over here!’

• “’Missing middle’ housing (i.e. ‘midscale & mid-priced product types’) can be thought of as a value play and as a lifestyle choice.” Now read this carefully. “…these middle products …being between seven and 20 units per acre, which makes them somewhat smaller than the conventional detached home…are also relatively inexpensive to construct…The moderate density, unit sizes, and construction costs allow builders to sell these middle products at prices…more attainable to young families, first-time buyers, and middle-income buyers than new detached products.” With all that said (written), however, nary a word about ‘middle housing’ being ‘manufactured housing’. These folk are actually seeking ‘our answer’ as if we’re hiding in plain sight. ‘Hey, we’re over here!’

So, where does all this leave us? In a word, ‘nowhere’ – until this sort of real estate advisory service, and others, ‘discover’ factory-built housing in general, HUD-Code manufactured housing in particular, even land-lease-lifestyle communities – and then write about us!

But how to accomplish ‘getting the word out’ to housing developers, land planners, real estate advisors, and prospective homebuyers/site lessees? Right now, that’s a difficult thing to do, as neither the mainstream secular or building trades business press demonstrates any interest in the quality, affordability, and energy efficiency our housing products bring to the shelter table! And add to that dismal reality, our industry has but one advertising-supported print trade publication left, and two limited circulation print business newsletters. And not much of an online presence either, despite promises and claims to the contrary. Neither national advocacy organization, at this point in time, uses the services of a public relations firm to position and publicize our unique housing product and community lifestyle. Until all those shortfalls are addressed, consider us ‘dead in the water’ marketing wise.

End Notes:

1. ‘Ah Ha! & Uh Oh! Worksheet’ is available ‘for the asking’ from COBA7®, via Official MHIndustry HOTLINE: (877) MFD-HSNG or 633-4764; & email via gfa7156@aol.com. An amazing do-it-yourself tool for calculating new home price points in any local housing market defined by postal zip code (to ascertain AMI), and ‘How much new or resale home ($) a prospective homebuyer and or homebuyer/site lessee can truly afford to buy’, under ‘risky’ & ‘affordable’ housing payment conditions. This form belongs in every housing professional’s collection of resources and practical tools.

2. ‘According to Sample of 2014-2015 First-Time Buyers, February 2016’.