I only started collecting seriously this month(!) but I am buying books every month, and already have a half dozen titles (going to add the rest over the next week or so).

My plan is to do something I don't currently see on the net: provide lots of pics of books, and 500 words or so on the book itself - what makes it different to others, a bit about its history etc. Currently I'm having to go to a few different places to get all of this info.

Anyway, please consider adding yourself as a 'follower', as this will be a blog that gets regularly updated for a long time to come!

I think collecting generally is of interest on its own. While, as you said, there aren't a great deal of sites/blogs with nice photo's, there equally aren't many sites detailing the motivation behind collecting --in this case Tolkien.

I think you could become quite bogged down on the detail of particular editions you've purchased, rather than focusing on (perhaps) why you bought a particular book, and (I think often under-discussed, but central to all acquisitions) the economics behind the purchase.

With straight facts it's inevitable that people will read and simply find fault with the 'facts' you detail; noticing errors and spurious claims. You might be better focusing more on your own opinion, rather than quoting the opinion of others. Also, once it has been up & running a while, it will be quite interesting to see how your own personal collecting has grown (not necessarily the collection itself); how your opinion of things has changed; how your collecting methods have been modified etc.

Also, if you do quote, people might want to see references. And, another idea, you could open another thread here (suitably titled) and update the forum of new entries on your blog; in the same way Parmastahir does with his long-running Tolkien Calendar Collecting thread in the Calendar section of the forum. (Have a look.)

Lots to think on there Brian, and you are right; I am a small fish in a big pond when it comes to Tolkien book knowledge, and the blog will never be a winner in terms of 'let me tell you all there is to know about this book'. However, a nice mix of everything will suit my own needs.

As regards your views on future prices, I notice that you have just purchased copy 379 of 500, so you can calculate the current sales rate is on average 108 copies per year (based on nearly 3.5 years to get to 379).

If you take into account that a lot of collectors bought two copies in 2007 as an investment, I would guess HarperCollins currently sell less than half the average rate (108) per year, probably about forty copies.

At that rate HarperCollins would sell out of copies in 4 years time, or they may remainder them.

Anyway, it's my thought that this book will be worth at least £700 in five or ten years time, at which point I will make my own decision on whether to keep it or not!

At that rate HarperCollins would sell out of copies in 4 years time, or they may remainder them..

As I explain in the blog, I based the sales figures on what has gone in the last six months- someone (possibly on this forum) posted that they had bought number 260 in Jan this year, so the sales figures of around 200 a year at the moment (outside of the early rush from collectors) seems right to me. Obviously it is all guess work, but somewhere around there seems right.

Out of interest Trotter, what do you guess will be the value of the book when Harper Collins has sold out? If this does happen in a year or so, surely the value will go up a little then? Obviously I am new to all this and know you are very knowledgable, so I am keen to know your thoughts.

If value is linked to low print numbers (as the last couple of editions on the HOME series and their current value suggest), then this is a winner with a print run of 500. If value is linked to signatures, then this is as good as it is now possible to get, with good old JRR now gone. If value is based on the actual product quality, then this is pretty much THe best in that field. Surely the only thing holding this back from massive profit in the future is the fact that it is not LOTR or the Hobbit?

Bruffyboy, you have to ask yourself --who is now buying the signed deluxe CoH? The rush at the beggining, as you say, was from all the mad collectors (in the main); some bought a few copies; some of these sales would, undoubtedly, be to dealers too. But with distribution being direct publisher-to-customer the potential for making any money as a dealer was, I assume, pretty low until discounting started kicking in. Once discounting started I think quite a lot of the sales would have been driven by book dealer purchases, not collectors.

So you might ask: why is a title, with a (relatively) small print run, still sitting at only about 2/3rds sold after (& I think you mis-calculate Trotter!; was the deluxe not published in Nov. 2007?) nearly three years? Is Tolkien suddenly unpopular? Was CoH unpopular? I would suggest the main reason is the price (& the title itself; the 'story' is known) --£350 is lot of money for a book; deluxe, leather-bound, or not.

As for value. It will never be worth (your while paying) more than £350 while stock remains with the publisher; obviously (--& one wouldn't even want to pay that now!) And, once it's 'sold out', probably about half the copies will be in the hands of people wanting (either at the time, or at a later date) to sell theirs. It's really about supply & demand. Will there be a couple of hundred people out there wanting to buy a copy and willing to pay £400, £500, or as you suggest, £700? I don't know. Just because someone on ABE has a copy sitting listed at £700, doesn't mean anyone is willing to pay that for it...

Also, one other thing. Unless someone has actually asked HC how many copies remain, I'm guessing the numbers being sold might be misleading. I took at note of someone selling #333 at some point in late 2009 (I didn't note the month). Some copies may have been sold slightly out of order. Bruffyboy, are you sure the #260 purchase wasn't off eBay?

Stu posted on 1st Jan 2009 Given the 30% discount and GBP 5.00 postage to Aus, I decided to get another copy of the signed CoH to shove under the bed for 25 years. The interesting thing is whether it will beat a bank account in terms of ROI at the end of the period. I'm not convinced it will, but I'll take the punt..! My copy number is 443, so there aren't that many left unsold at this point. I guess they might discount further, but I'm thinking 30% off might be as good as it gets. Having said that, who knows - maybe 40% discount is just around the corner? Stu

As you can see #443 was sold 18 months ago. As far as I can see it is not possible to currently tell how many copies are left from the copy numbers as HarperCollins are clearly not selling them in order.

I guess you are right Khamul- there may well be a lot of copies for sale in the next five years or so, and prices will be dictated by the size of The market who want that book.

However, just to play devil's advocate: why did the recent signed 1/1 Silmarillion go for over £400? You can buy a 1/1 for £20, so it was clearly the signature that raised the value to around 40x initial publishing price. Now, The CoH has the same signature! Yes it's a newer book, but in ten years it will be considered 'oldish'. Perhaps the main reason the Signed Silmarillion went for £400 was because it is a rarity to find. In five or ten years there will possibly be the same number of sealed CoH around as there are signed Silmarillions, so why wouldn't it go up in value in similar terms? obviously I am looking for just double my money rather than x 40.

The two lovely editions of LotR which came out in 1992 and were signed by Alan Lee (blue single volume deluxe and green three book version) both now command around £1000 too (twice that if shrinkwrapped) so that surely is some proof that deluxes will increase in value? Yes, those particular deluxes were limited to 250 copies, but they weren't signed by CT.

Similarly, the brown leather folio LoTR books are now valued at over £1000, and why? 1750 printed, lovely editions, no sigs, just valuable because of how nice they are.

Oh, and I am not basing any prices on Abe- more eBay and the few specialist Tolkien stores online.

Just food for thought, and again as I already said I am new to this so only really posing suggestions (nothing with authority!)

"and CT sigs will have gone up in value at least a bit with his passing."

I know bruffyboy says he doesn't mean to be morbid, but I for one feel more than a bit uncomfortable about this sort of talk. Christopher Tolkien is a human being; same as the rest of us. He's also a nice bloke, and the idea of people waiting for his death in order to see the price of their possessions go up in value frankly makes me feel a little sick. Personally, I'd like to see a cap on this sort of thing.