Regional employment forecast until 2030 and creation of a regional input-output-chart for Saxony

Project description:

By using the econometric models of the GWS this project forecasts the future number of employees and the industry structure in Saxony and its regions. The creation of a regional input-output-chart for Saxony complements the analysis by helping to reveal the structural changes that are necessary to reach a specific employment and industry development.

The aim of the project is the development of an analytical tool to assess the gains and losses of possible state programs supporting the development of the private sector of the Tajik economy.

By using the Tajik Input-Output table and employment data, the approach allows to analyze the effects on production and employment. During an on-site workshop, the client is trained in input-output analysis. Furthermore, the tool is developed together with the participants and used for real-life problems. An user-interface facilitates the operation of the tool.

On behalf of GIZ, the project is conducted jointly by Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH) and the Institute of Economic Structures Reserach (GWS).

The structure of the market for long-term care in Germany and its potenial capacity

Project description:

The aim of this project is to identify challenges of the market for long-term care and to offer applicable policy options. An in-depth analysis on the current structure of the long-term care market (magnitude, number of employees, organising institutions) and a projection of its development until 2030 forms the basis of the project work.An extensive database is created and integrated in the existing GWS-module for long-term care (see An der Heiden et al. 2012, Stöver et al. 2015). The projection of the long-term care is provided by the macro-econometric model INFORGE. Sensitivity calculations are applied for the evaluation of the results and the identification of sensitive areas. Scenario analyses helps to assess the economic impact of different policy options.

The reporting on socioeconomic development in Germany (soeb) aims to get a better understanding of the German transformation process. It seeks to answer what kind of new chances to participate originates from the increased diversity of work and life and how this affects inequality and exclusion. Since autumn 2013, a newly composed research network has been working on the Third Report on Socioeconomic Development in Germany (soeb 3). The report is funded by the Federal Ministry of Education and Research. GWS is responsible for Division 1 “Erosion of the German "participatory capitalism" - how sustainable is the German development model?” Using the empirically based macro-econometric model INFORGE projection of the demographically and socioeconomically determined supply and demand relations in the labour market, of the ecologic sustainability indicators and of the regional disparities until 2030 are given. For Division 5 “Consumption patterns between differentiation and inequality“, GWS provides the socio-economic consumption module DEMOS.

The aim of this project is to develop a manual for practitioners to guide them in conducting ex-ante impact assessment studies. The manual describes the procedural and analytical steps necessary to perform impact assessments and introduces and describes different macroeconomic models that exist to carry out policy impact assessments and forecasting.

The GWS has generated a long-term projection of employment for the Saarland, one of the 16 German Federal States, depicting the development of total employment and in individual sectors up to the year 2030. The study accommodates for the increasing disparities among labour market regions and the coherent growing relevance of regionalised projections. The results help to early detect problematic situations in different regions, enabling regional players to act in time and to initiate measures to avoid scarcities or other problems in time.