U.S. Signals Putin Not to Move Against New NATO Members

May 1 (Bloomberg) -- Unsure of Russian President Vladimir
Putin’s intentions, the Obama administration is attempting to
warn the Kremlin not to test the U.S. commitment to defend its
allies in eastern and central Europe.

Jet fighters from the U.K., Denmark, France and Poland will
begin flying air patrols over the Baltic states today “as part
of collective defense measures,” the North Atlantic Treaty
Organization said in a statement yesterday. Canadian jets are
deploying to Romania “as part of NATO efforts to reassure
allies” in Central and Eastern Europe, the alliance said.

Those measures and others, including deployments of U.S.
troops for military exercises, are part of an effort to
discourage any thoughts Putin may have about extending Russia’s
reach beyond Ukraine.

The U.S. will defend its NATO allies “no ifs, ands or
buts,” U.S. Vice President Joe Biden said yesterday at an
Atlantic Council conference in Washington.

Secretary of State John Kerry said at the conference April
29 that unlike Ukraine, which isn’t a NATO member and where
alliance nations have ruled out war, a move against a treaty
ally would have grave consequences.

“We have to make it absolutely clear to the Kremlin that
NATO territory is inviolable,” Kerry said. “We will defend
every single piece of it.”

The comments by Biden and Kerry are intended to reassure
nations such as Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania, all former Soviet
republics, and to draw a clear red line for Russia.

Credibility Issues

There are reasons why Putin may doubt America’s resolve.
President Barack Obama backed away from a red line when he
threatened military action if Syria used chemical weapons, then
didn’t follow through. Diplomats say that’s hurt U.S.
credibility internationally. Further, the crisis in Europe comes
as polls show Americans want the U.S to play a reduced role
overseas.

Historically, Americans have supported the defense
commitment to NATO, the key alliance assembled after World War
II to defend Western Europe against the Soviet Union and its
Warsaw Pact allies. Under Article 5 of the 1949 North Atlantic
Treaty, the U.S. and all other members would consider an armed
attack on any one of them an attack on all.

Expanded NATO

Since the fall of the Soviet Union in 1991, NATO has
extended its membership to nations once dominated by the Soviet
Union, including the Baltics, Poland, Hungary, the Czech
Republic, Slovakia, Romania, Bulgaria, Albania and Slovenia.
Georgia, a former Soviet republic that fought a five-day war
with Russia in 2008 over breakaway regions, is seeking fast-track NATO membership as a result of the Ukraine crisis.

Latvia’s Prime Minister Laimdota Straujuma said her nation
is ’’deeply grateful’’ for the security provided by the U.S. and
NATO, adding that she considers it “highly unlikely” that
Russia would attack the Baltic nations protected by the Atlantic
alliance.

“When I met with Vice President Biden, he reassured me
that, if need be, the provisions of Article 5 of NATO will be
applied,” she said today at a Bloomberg Government breakfast in
Washington. She met with Biden at the White House on April 29.

She said Latvia will increase its defense spending and is
making plans to buy new radar systems to improve its border
defenses.

‘Shattering NATO’

The U.S. and its allies have presented NATO’s expansion as
a measure to enhance European stability, while Russian leaders
have considered it a threat.

Putin may have his eye on testing the U.S. and the major
European powers, particularly if he gets away with actions
against Ukraine, said Stephen Hadley, who was national security
adviser to President George W. Bush.

“I think this is also about shattering NATO and
potentially shattering the EU, because if he were to do
something in the Baltics and we did not respond, that’s the end
of Article 5, that’s the end of NATO,” Hadley said, addressing
the Atlantic Council, a Washington-based group that promotes
trans-Atlantic relations, shortly before Biden spoke.

“Potentially this is not just about reestablishing some
kind of Russian empire,” Hadley said. “It’s also quite frankly
an effort to see how far he can go to disrupt NATO and perhaps
even disrupt” the European Union.

‘Solemn Commitments’

The former Soviet republics of Latvia and Estonia have
large ethnic Russian minorities, and Russia has long complained
about their treatment. The Estonians are “scared to death”
that Putin will threaten them as he has the Ukrainians,
Republican Senator John McCain of Arizona said this week.

“In response to Russian aggression, America is taking
steps to make clear that our allies will honor the solemn
commitments under Article 5 of the NATO treaty,” Biden said.
“That is an absolute, ironclad guarantee.

Estonian Defense Minister Sven Mikser called for NATO to
put a ‘‘big emphasis’’ on deterrence to reduce the likelihood of
requiring an Article 5 defense action.

‘‘I think Putin understands strength, and deterring him is
possible -- he knows that we are superior militarily, we are
superior economically, and we have the moral upper hand,’’
Mikser said yesterday at the Atlantic Council conference. ‘‘So I
think we are capable of deterring him, but we should make it
very clear, very visible, very credible.’’

U.S. Poll

While NATO has made symbolic military deployments, it’s
unclear how the defensive alliance would respond to the kind of
intimidation and destabilization campaign Russia used to annex
Crimea and now is waging in eastern Ukraine.

A poll of Americans published yesterday highlighted the
public pressure on the Obama administration and Congress to
limit the American role abroad. The Wall Street Journal/NBC poll
found that 47 percent of respondents said the U.S. should take a
less active role in world affairs, a larger share than in
similar polls taken in 2001, 1997 and 1995.

Support for Obama’s handing of the Ukraine crisis dropped
to 37 percent from 43 percent a month earlier, according to the
poll, which has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1
percentage points.

Merkel’s View

Ukraine isn’t a NATO member, and Obama and his European
counterparts have made it clear that the alliance won’t be drawn
into a war with Russia over it.

‘‘We in Europe are very much in agreement that a military
resolution of the problems cannot happen,” German Chancellor
Angela Merkel said yesterday in Aachen, Germany. “It’s not on
the agenda. War is no solution, and so we have to find other
ways.”

Merkel is scheduled to discuss Ukraine with Obama at the
White House tomorrow. Her visit comes as the U.S. and Germany
are advancing economic sanctions against Russian individuals and
companies and are threatening broader sanctions if Russia
invades Ukraine.

The U.S. yesterday handed over responsibility for the
Baltic air-defense patrols to the U.K., Denmark, France and
Poland. An airborne infantry company with about 150 troops from
the U.S. Army’s 173rd Airborne Brigade, based in Vicenza, Italy,
landed in Estonia on Apr. 28 for military exercises.

A total of about 600 soldiers from the brigade are
deploying to Poland, Latvia and Lithuania, as well as Estonia,
to train with local forces, the U.S. European Command in
Stuttgart, Germany announced April 22. Estonian Prime Minister
Taavi Roivas said yesterday his country seeks a permanent
presence of NATO forces to increases deterrence.

Obama has added a stop in Poland to already scheduled June
travel to Brussels for a G-7 summit and to France to mark the
70th anniversary of D-Day in Normandy, White House spokesman Jay
Carney told reporters at a briefing yesterday.