Marine Weather and TidesNorth Redington Beach, FL

Version 3.4

What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:16AM

Sunset 5:41PM

Wednesday December 19, 2018 5:10 AM EST (10:10 UTC)

Moonrise 3:25PM

Moonset 3:51AM

Illumination 90%

NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

GMZ800 Synopsis For The Coastal Waters From Bonita Beach To Suwannee River- 352 Am Est Wed Dec 19 2018 Synopsis.. A complex storm system will move into the region tonight and into Thursday bringing showers and Thunderstorms and overall hazardous conditions. A gale watch has been issued as winds are forecast to increase to around 30 kt with gusts to around 40 knots are expected Thursday night into Friday, with seas building to around 12 to 18 feet. Winds will start to diminish Saturday, and will fall even more for Sunday, but waves will be much slower to subside across the eastern gulf.

Discussion
The pleasant weather that we've had the last few days across the area
will linger for the first half of the day today before our weather
begins to deteriorate rather quickly late tonight and especially on
Thursday. An active weather pattern will begin later today with the
potential for flooding, severe weather, hazardous marine conditions
and coastal flooding with these impacts expected to be highest on
Thursday and Friday.

A mid upper level trough will swing down into the northern gulf
states over the next 48 hours while at the surface rapid cyclogenesis
is expected to occur with the majority of model guidance showing a
990 mb low across central ga by Friday morning. Beginning later
today, we will see rapid moisture return ahead of the developing
system as winds will become southerly by the afternoon as this very
dynamic storm system moves our way. Expect the first showers to start
breaking out from the tampa bay area southward along the suncoast
during the later afternoon early evening hours. These showers will
likely be on the lighter side, as more potent showers thunderstorm
activity should be holding off until the overnight hours tonight into
early Thursday morning.

Thursday is when things really get going across the area as low
pressure begins to deepen and atmospheric dynamics become quite
favorable for heavy rain and severe weather across the region. The
big question with this event, similar to late last week, will be the
amount of low level surface based instability available for these
storms. There is still quite a range of solutions in the model
ensembles about where... And how far north the best surface
instability will get. There are some indications that the amount of
preceding rainfall before the main thunderstorm potential will
really hinder the northward expansion of low level instability and
possibly keep the storms elevated up over the tampa bay area i-4
corridor. Better chances for surface based storms will exist the
further south one goes. This will continue to be monitored over the
next 36 hours but given the very strong dynamics of this trough, we
are expecting the potential for some very strong thunderstorms
capable of producing damaging winds and perhaps a few tornadoes. The
current SPC day 2 outlook has the slight risk designation area from
around the i-4 corridor south. This could change over the next 36
hours so stay tuned.

As for rainfall, have pops maxed out at 100 for Thursday as everybody
is going to see rain. Current thinking is a widespread 2- 3"
rainfall potential, with localized higher amounts owing to stronger
or more persistent convective complexes. After coordination with
surrounding wfos, have issued a flood watch from pasco county north
into the big bend as these areas saw 3 to 7 inches of rain late last
week and are more susceptible to flooding. Localized flooding is
certainly possible across our entire area but the nature coast
appears to be at the highest risk at this time.

After the front moves through coastal flooding, high surf, rip
currents and beach erosion will become a concern as very strong
winds are expected across the eastern gulf of mexico. These winds
will likely approach or eclipse gale force for much of Friday with
gusts in excess of 40 kts likely. In addition to the speed, the fetch
of winds across the gulf will be quite long, extending at least back

to the ms delta longitude. The persistent strong onshore winds are
shown by all of the probabilistic extra-tropical storm surge models
to present a threat for minor coastal flooding, especially at the
times of high tide. In addition, these models do not include the
impacts of wave run-up... Which may be another significant factor as
wave heights at area beaches may be near 8 feet or higher.

The front will have pushed through the area by Friday morning but
aloft there will remain a significant amount of lift in place.

Fetch off the moist gulf waters along with favorable lift will
support a cloudy and windy day with off and on low-topped showers
all day. Showers will be light in nature but given the cloud cover,
temps in the 60s and windy conditions it won't be the most pleasant
of days. As the low moves into the northeastern states this weekend,
skies begin to clear on Saturday with pleasant weather expected for
the weekend. High pressure will build into the area into early next
week with seasonable temperatures and drier air returning as temps
moderate a bit each day.

Aviation
Vfr conditions expected to prevail although some patchy fog could
develop and mainly affect lal and pgd. Moisture will begin to return
Wednesday withVFR ceilings developing from southwest to northeast
gradually lowering to MVFR after 18z with a few showers possible.

East to southeast winds will increase to between 6 and 10 knots
Wednesday morning and shift to southeast to south in the afternoon
at around 10 knots.

Marine
A complex storm system will move into the region tonight and into
Thursday bringing showers and thunderstorms and overall hazardous
conditions. A gale watch has been issued as winds are forecast to
increase to around 30 kt with gusts well above gale force Thursday
night into Friday, with seas building to around 12 to 18 feet. Winds
will start to diminish Saturday, and will fall even more for Sunday,
but waves will be much slower to subside across the eastern gulf.

Fire weather
No fire weather hazards are expected for the next few days as
relative humidity values will remain above critical levels.

Weather Map and Satellite Images

(on/off) &nbspHelpWeather MapGOES Local Image of EDITNOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.Link to LoopOther links:
Northern PacificContential USFull GOES-East

Wind Forecast for Tampa Bay, FL (5,6,7,8)

Disclaimer:The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.