Tim Lincecum's increased use of breaking stuff helped groundballs, control and efficiency. Two years of giant workloads for young arm a bit troublesome but has repeatable delivery, despite its unorthodoxy. Innings warning adds risk to spending big on a pitcher, yet he's the closest thing to being a first-rounder. Inflation-driven prices will probably add to downfall and decrease profit odds.

Increased run support and a switch to the NL East add to elite skills. Innings eater's K rate has risen the last two years. Small flyball rise in '09 gives pause at Roy Halladay's new park, but he keeps the ball down. Top-three mixed starter generally resides within the top 25 picks; might be worth it if you can back up your offense quickly.

Only Roy Halladay has exhibited better command in each of the last two seasons. Dan Haren has tailed off after break in each of last three years. His command was still impressive in second half last year, but hip problems contributed to poor location, and fatigue was his problem before. He's still legit No. 1 starter; fine-tuning, health mean whole new level possible.

Last yearTommy Hanson's value was great; this year he may cost too much. No doubt he has talent (lofty K/9, improving control), but he benefited from small savings on his home run and hit rates, among other things. Even with regression, he can still deliver as a mixed No. 2 starter, but there are more bankable commodities that will cost less.

Ricky Nolasco's follow-up to breakthrough 2008 well below expectations. Massive increase in innings from 2007 absorbs some blame for poor location, missed spots, "bad luck." Lost in blown-up ERA was continued decline in flyballs and repeated K/BB thanks to huge gain in dominance. Repeated K/9 unlikely, but Nolasco settled down following his demotion and recall. Big bounce-back on horizon, so get in now, while you can.

Johan Santana's string of seasons with 200-plus frames made elbow issues no surprise. Level of performance before that was, though. High April, May K/9 and solid control conjured thoughts of old Johan. Velocity loss, total lack of dominance and home run assault woke us up. We can blame bone chips. Surgery cleaned him up. In theory, Santana will need a short adjustment period and be back to old (2007-08) self. Cost is nearly what it'd be if 2009 never happened, though.

He had one truly poor month of control, but early trouble with homers plagued him. Cole Hamels is tinkering with his arsenal to add more deception in his patterns. He doesn't throw hard enough to forecast 2006-level dominance, but it's hard not to think the command-friendly lefty can lower opponents' BABIP. A No. 2 mixed starter that could perform as a No. 1 and is worth a slight reach.

Adam Wainwright fixed a delivery flaw early on before his groundball and K rates climbed. Used more diverse arsenal (more curveballs) after broken finger shortened '08. Burnout risk: innings jump after lighter year; even with budding dominance, still throws high pitch counts. Grounder-dominance combo usually leads to elitehood, but he's a low-end ace because of workload and durability concerns.

Ubaldo Jimenez's incredible advances in command and dominance made up foundation for breakthrough season. Groundball efficiency ensures minimal damage from long ball. Making habit of quality hit rate against, too. Only concern: slide in BB/9 after huge gain. No. 2 or No. 3 mixed starter is fair; it's probably unsafe to pay for even more growth, with possibility for slight regression.

Perpetual injury risk had Cy Young-type season. Chris Carpenter hadn't pitched that many innings since '06. You know elite groundball ability and impeccable control are there when he's healthy. Skepticism will organically lower his price, so most are already taking the gamble into account. Here, you want someone else to pay full price. Of course, if you could snag him as your No. 3 pitcher, it's probably worth the dice roll.

Los Angeles Dodgers starting pitcher Jason Schmidt had season-ending surgery on his right shoulder on June 20. The Dodgers have decided to insert 22-year-old reliever Chad Billingsley into Schmidt's spot in the rotation. Billingsley was a first-round pick in 2003, and he is considered one of the Dodgers best young prospects.

This is not the first go-around for Billingsley as a starter. He began 2006 as a starting pitcher for Triple-A Las Vegas. In the middle of June he earned a call-up, and he made 16 starts for the Dodgers. As a starter he was 6-4 with a 3.34 ERA and 1.60 WHIP. Billingsley's main problem was issuing walks. In 86 1/3 innings Billingsley struck out 58, while walking 55. Due to his lack of efficiency, Billingsley would run up his pitch count, forcing Dodgers manager Grady Little to overuse the bullpen. Billingsley averaged just 5 1/3 innings. He ended last season pitching out of the bullpen, and he continued in that role until Schmidt's latest setback. This season he has been an effective setup man for the Dodgers. He is 4-0 with a 3.26 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP.

The 6-foot-1, 245-pound Billingsley throws a mid-90s fastball along with an
over-the-top curveball, slider and changeup. The curveball and slider are
his best off-speed pitches. The changeup is mediocre. He continued
to use all four pitches during his time as a reliever, because he knew that
eventually he would be returning to the rotation. Like a lot of power pitchers,
he has sometimes struggled with his control. His strikeout-to-walk ratio
is much improved this year. He has struck out 42 while walking 16.

Billingsley made his first start of the season on June 21. He faced the Toronto Blue Jays on the road, and he threw 70 pitches in 3 2/3 innings. To ease Billingsley's transition to starting, Little said he would limit Billingsley's pitch count the first couple starts. By the third start Little expects Billingsley to be able to throw 90 to 95 pitches.

Billingsley is definitely worth a look for fantasy owners that were still hanging
on to Schmidt. This season he seems to have corrected his problem of getting
behind in the count and walking batters. Little says the biggest change
with Billingsley has been pitch efficiency, but, in his initial start, Billingsley
only threw 41 out of 70 pitches for strikes. The best approach with Billingsley
is a wait-and-see approach. The version of Billingsley that throws strikes
could be a valuable commodity. If he reverts back to the Billingsley who
puts too many runners on base, then there are better options out there.

Yovani Gallardo workload risk hangs over his many improvements. Groundball increase came with increased use of curveball, and dominance stayed at elite levels throughout season. Brewers acted fast in shutting him down when he became fatigued, so he should be prepared for a full year. He could pass as a low-level ace if you acknowledge the potential burnout.

Despite Ryan Dempster's drop in run support and wins, his control improved. Though he probably fits somewhere between his 2008 and 2009 levels, Dempster's high-level grounder tendency should aid his approach; his latest turn as a starter has seen his skills stabilize. He has turned into a safe No. 3 mixed starter.

Fortunate BABIP and strand rate primed for correction. Flyballs decreased again, but HR/FB and homers per nine went up; normalization in one category could balance out upon correction. Dominance dropped again, too, but led to better command. Workload risk looms over Cain, but he's one of the best opportunities for a No. 2 roto pitcher to jump to a true ace.

Youth brings typical pitching caveats, including walks, flyballs and struggling with runners on base. Clayton Kershaw grew, however, by not relying on his curveball as much and adding a slider. Raw talent unquestioned; if he isn't your mixed ace, he'll bring a profit. Build a more stable staff around him, and you'll be fine.

It keeps getting better: Wandy Rodriguez stayed healthy, reduced BB/9 in second half and watched hit rate fall again - part of a trend? How much better can it get? If it's simply a matter of solving road woes, will we see a jump beyond an Ervin Santana (circa 2008) season? Hit and strand rates were best-case scenario. Upside beyond 2009 level is limited. He's good, but some folks are paying for next fantasy ace. Don't stay in with them.

Josh M. Johnson exhibited heretofore unseen level of BB/9, which puts him in a new class. Several red flags: big jump in workload for right-hander with somewhat extensive injury history. Second-half control fade and rising flyball rate may have reflected fatigue, and latter resulted in HR/9 rise. Has makings of potential Ricky Nolasco (circa 2009) case. Elite potential, but Johnson's 2009 follow-up stands to be overvalued.

Ted Lilly might not start the season on time; the Cubbies aren't rushing his rehab from November shoulder surgery. Lilly's price might drop as a result. If his reports are positive, you could probably deal with a normalization of his control and HR/9; there's still enough K potential here to buttress your staff as a No. 3 starter, if you're desperate.

Back problems don't disappear. However, Roy Oswalt has focused on offseason core strength, an approach that has benefited others with similar issues. Spike in flyball percentage seems a fluke, but batted-ball trends point to hittable pitcher. That and command erosion can probably be linked to ailments somewhat, and K/9 remains steady. Acknowledge that NL fantasy No. 1 is no longer likely, but he's better than 2009. Profit chance.

Jair Jurrjens hasn't been strong enough to suggest he'll continue to pitch at semi-elite levels. Surging flyball rate says home run victimization will continue to rise, and fortunate hit rate won't continue. His cost is too high to expect a return. There should be safer options unless his draft spot falls.

Most see Brandon Webb's injury as red flag. It could also mean great value for former top, consistently reliable arm. Dominance was on the rise before breakdown, but so was control, so fantasy ace is likely unattainable in 2010. Remains groundball master, though. He'll still be effective, if healthy. Highlight his name.

Optimism from Jorge De La Rosa's improved control in second half mitigated by demons in September. Southpaw showed soft improvement in several areas for two seasons. However, batted-ball tendencies and inconsistency - to put it kindly - say to proceed with caution. Room for more growth, but how much more? Not enough to merit reaching into first dozen mixed rounds.

Fatigue from winter play and WBC must play some part in Johnny Cueto's lack of progress and 2009 shoulder inflammation. He improved in control but regressed in K/9. No offseason ball this time. Fresh arm suggests rebound in latter and command improvement. Home runs? We'll see. Price of intrigue - not high, but more than curious - remains. Profit seems likelier. If not, what will it take?

The sinkerballer's GB/FB has been declining for three straight years. Derek Lowe's control (2.91 BB/9) tanked; 2008 BB/9 hid negative trend there. Some bad luck bit him, too, but bottoming out of dominance raises red flag. He found some mechanical flaws this offseason that might have been contributed to his down year. His cost shouldn't be high, but his return likely isn't, either.

Aaron Harang's struggles can partly be attributed to forearm (2008) and misfortune (2009). Appendectomy cut short improving second half. Some was hit rate correction, but he was more hittable. Bigger keys: K/9 and velocity were back on rise, and flyballs began to trend back downward. No certainty this upward slope continues, but he doesn't cost a lot. Profit could be considerable.

Tim Hudson returned from Tommy John surgery and gave no reason to expect a big change in idea of his value. Control returned rather quickly, for the most part. His K/9 has stabilized and may even spike a bit. He should again be reliable, if unspectacular, but his cost is discounted compared to pre-TJ seasons. Many candidates at his level have more upside but are less likelier to hit it and have greater downside.

Newfound training regiment involving boxing has Carlos Zambrano in best shape of career, he says. That might help him ease the back problems that sent him to the DL last year. Given the return of his K/9 to 2005-06 levels, worth investing an extra dollar or two to make sure you snag him. He could bring a solid return on a midrange investment.

Filthy stuff? Check. Control? Work in progress, but his WHIP has declined each of last two years. Jonathan Sanchez embraced his slider and curveball, contributing to his second-half dominance improvement. Late-season growth often sign of good things to come for youngsters, but his '09 BABIP due for a correction. Lot to hate, but more to like. A cautious late-round deep mixed bid would weigh the negatives properly.

Most of Bronson Arroyo's 2009 gains are tied to low BABIP against. His command has decreased for three straight years. K/9 fell off table, but reined in declining control. Relied on slider more, reminiscent of 2004-06. HR/9 on rise flyball decline; rectification would mildly offset reversion in runners allowed. Reliable for PT - carpal tunnel not a worry - and double-digit wins, but NL players should watch for 2009-based inflation.

Lucky BABIP and strand rate huge targets for correction. Dominance has dropped in each of last two years, returning to Randy Wolf's career norms. Moves to more favorable homer park, making flyball jump scarier. Control improvement was nice, but his margin for error is thin with that reliance. A non-upside pick but a decent settle option to round out deep staffs.

Edwin Jackson was abysmal in final two months of 2009, but overall, he made big strides in control - again - and command. Offsetting those gains are luck in hit rate against and move to Arizona mixed with climbing flyball rate, which wasn't an issue at previous stops. You likely won't get him for a safe price.

Dominance is mediocre, but that increased last season. Hiroki Kuroda makes living off control and groundballs. Came back well after taking liner off noggin. At 35, not much upside here, but there is late-round rotation stability in deep mixed.

Joe Blanton added dominance to his innings-eating approach, but his approach dictates his K/9 won't remain high. He saw some BABIP help midseason but continued to display excellent command. Spikes in flyball and HR/FB are worrisome, but he has generally excelled at keeping the ball down. Improvement made in his stretch delivery could sustain strand rate growths. The 29-year-old vet is a decent late-round rotation capper in deep mixed, but don't expect much, if any, upside.

J.A. Happ's rookie season value fueled by 12 wins. Warnings come in deflated BABIP and inflated strand rate. See last September for crash back to earth. Dominance dropped in starting role, which forebodes bad things for the soft tosser if luck doesn't hold up. Team still gives him midrange NL-only value, but shaky skills shouldn't be banked on in mixed.

The right-handed Jason Hammel is very interesting low-dollar bid choice in NL and very deep mixed formats. Hammel deserves more attention than he receives with patterns for K/BB and incorporation of Colorado's grounder-inducing philosophy. Latter increases chances of resolving home woes - it showed after break. Only red flag: nearly 100-inning jump for 27-year-old.

Shoulder problems - "weakness" - this time for John Maine. What would a full season bring? Maine's ability to limit hit damage has not waned during his medical timeline, but his control has suffered. Righty put together an outing reminiscent of 2007 to close out 2009, though. Why not make him your No. 4 or No. 5 NL starter and find out? Good luck setting over/under on IP.

Kenshin Kawakami might have endured some culture shock last year. His ratios improved as the season went on. Second-half K/9 drop-off makes one leery, but endurance was a likely culprit. Expect extremely modest gains - not enough to make him anything more than a deep mixed end-gamer or low-end NL buy.

Addition of a splitter and more offspeed pitches helped Homer Bailey to 6-1 record and 1.70 ERA over last nine starts. Still young and has improved attitude. Control is improving, along with dominance; rumored mid-90s velocity finally showed up. Cost may have risen with potential for profit, which, of course, limits potential profit. Pay for only very modest gains for now.

Giants brass will start Madison Bumgarner in Triple-A. Minor league dominance drool-inducing, and he continued that in first MLB stint, though his velocity hasn't returned after issues last season. Groundball-friendly stuff should help in case heat doesn't come around. He can be taken as speculation in the last few rounds of deep mixed setups, but he'll give a better return as an NL-only tuckaway. His price might be lower because of his spring trials, so you probably won't be losing much by giving him a try.

Improved balance from adjusted mechanics helped jack up Kevin Correia's groundball rate and increase his strand rate. Flyballs have dropped in three straight years. Pitches to contact but is in one of the best parks for that. A suitable midrange NL-only hurler. Just don't count on 12 wins again.

Sparkling Triple-A control the last two years was the only sign to predict Randy Wells' '09 brilliance. He made a living off grounders, too. He doesn't strike out many batters, though, relying too much on control. Based on his farm history, Wells' HR/9 was extremely fortunate. Don't pay for a repeat of his fortune.

Drafters haven't inflated his value much yet. Upper-90s velocity should shorten his timetable even with him starting the season in the minors. The Nats expressed mild concerns about his delivery this offseason, but they're not going to baby him; he's close to being ready. Strasburg's late-round ADP and value don't shun an extra buck or two on a gamble selection. He's polished, so the biggest worries at that price are how long he'll stay on the farm and the possibility of early rough patches.

Flyballs have doomed Brett Myers. His new park doesn't help much. His fastball has become extremely hittable. Reasons for optimism as a post-draft pickup: His awfulness last year was partially caused by a hip problem that was fixed by surgery. He'll be a dice roll in deep leagues.

Control fuels Paul Maholm's game; strikeouts are lean. BABIP correction brought him back to earth after sparkling '08. He can gobble innings, though, making him a valuable mid-rotation commodity in deep NL leagues. He'll occasionally have in-season rental value in deep mixed, as well.

Mike Pelfrey's control ballooned after improvement in second half of 2008. Hitters tortured Pelfrey in 2009, but lost is some improvement in command and an unfortunate hit rate. If groundball rate continues its ascension, infield defense returns to form (well, is healthy) and dominance rises again.... A possible value.

Brad Penny admitting he pitches to contact must've pleased pitching coach Dave Duncan, who could make Penny the next Joel Pineiro. Penny loved coming to the NL last year, where his approach and hard fastball play better. He knows how to eat innings; Duncan gives him a chance to become more efficient, a long-standing quandary for Penny. Oozes sleeper potential but will probably be more expensive in NL-onlys.

Innings eater had a small breakthrough in dominance and control last year when Barry Zito backed away from his underwhelming heat in favor of more slider usage. With his skills leveled out, there isn't much more to be gained here, especially with his strand rate likely to come down. A mixed rental and NL-only staff filler.

Multiple injuries, perhaps most notably to back and shoulder, marred Aaron Cook's season a bit, but control of 2008 appears to be outlier. Groundballs remain Cook's key to success. Little downside, but no upside. Right-hander is just filling out your NL rotation, with hope for contribution in W's to offset hit in WHIP.

Innings eater lives off groundballs and doesn't offer many strikeouts. Pitchers like this usually need wins to earn more value; the Nats aren't in a position to make up for John Lannan's lack of dominance. He's an in-season rental in deep leagues but shouldn't earn your mixed draft dollars. For desperate NL-only owners, he's worth a buck or two as a non-upside bench arm.

A pitcher reliant on wins for roto value doesn't help himself by going to Washington. Jason Marquis pitches to contact and rarely strikes out anyone. His groundballs spiked in Colorado last year - this helps someone who pitches to contact, but he moves to a shakier defense. Leave him for the post-draft pool.

More injuries contributed to tanked velocity. Reports are good from Spring Training, and his K's should return to respectability if Chris Young can return to the field. Health risk will keep him in late rounds, which might be the perfect time to pounce in deeps as a last pick.

Rotation spot likely. Was fast-tracked and jumped over Triple-A before debut stint last year. Pads shut him down late in the season to preserve him. Displayed promising dominance considering his hurried program. Flyball rate disconcerting even with him pitching at PETCO Park. Typical rookie bumps, including control, shouldn't discourage you from making him an upside pick in the late stanzas of deep mixed.