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Re: Cliff Lee

Originally Posted by Falls City Beer

I'm saying I don't care if he isn't a finished product. Lee makes the Reds a lot closer to a WS contender than Bruce.

For 2010 only. And I don't think Lee's WAR - Bailey's WAR is going to be THAT much greater than Bruce's - (Bruce's replacement). Lee is worth about 2-3 wins more than Bruce above replacement. But our replacement level SP is much better than our replacement level RF. So, optimistically, you're looking at a 2 win improvement in the regular season. Forgive me if I don't think that puts us in the playoffs.

Put it this way: without Lee and with Bruce, then the Reds are certainly not a WS contender this year--or next year, or the year after that. Who knows when they will be? WS contention isn't currently inside this organization. Maybe they draft a Lincecum and get over that hump in the meantime, but I doubt it.

This is just silly logic. So because a team isn't currently WS caliber, it should trade anybody and everybody on the team regardless of how good they are now and how much potential they have for a marginally increased chance at being good this year and this year only. That's a recipe for disaster.

If this was an 88-90 win team who just need 1 SP to put them over the top, you MIGHT be able to start making a case. But for a .500 team, this approach is how you end up with an 86 win 2nd place finish and a less talented roster moving forward. This strategy is akin to Dusty batting speedy, low OBP guys at the top of the lineup in hopes that he can get that SB, sac bunt, sac fly combo working...

If you want to talk Alonso, a guy Bruce's age who just made AAA, who has no defensive value, and who is blocked by an all-star, that would make sense. Bruce, not so much.

Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

Re: Cliff Lee

Originally Posted by Falls City Beer

I'm saying I don't care if he isn't a finished product. Lee makes the Reds a lot closer to a WS contender than Bruce.

Put it this way: without Lee and with Bruce, then the Reds are certainly not a WS contender this year--or next year, or the year after that. Who knows when they will be? WS contention isn't currently inside this organization. Maybe they draft a Lincecum and get over that hump in the meantime, but I doubt it.

If its this year, then I agree. But Jay Bruce certainly could help the Reds be a WS contender in 2011, 2012, 2013 and 2014. He is likely to be among the 5 best right fielders in the game over that period of time. You simply can't trade a guy like that for 2.5 months of anyone.

Re: Cliff Lee

Originally Posted by RedsManRick

For 2010 only. And I don't think Lee's WAR - Bailey's WAR is going to be THAT much greater than Bruce's - (Bruce's replacement). Lee is worth about 2-3 wins more than Bruce above replacement. But our replacement level SP is much better than our replacement level RF. So, optimistically, you're looking at a 2 win improvement in the regular season. Forgive me if I don't think that puts us in the playoffs.

This is just silly logic. So because a team isn't currently WS caliber, it should trade anybody and everybody on the team regardless of how good they are now and how much potential they have for a marginally increased chance at being good this year and this year only. That's a recipe for disaster.

If this was an 88-90 win team who just need 1 SP to put them over the top, you MIGHT be able to start making a case. But for a .500 team, this approach is how you end up with an 86 win 2nd place finish and a less talented roster moving forward.

I have no doubt they'll sit on what they have and continue to founder in a crummy division for years to come. While the Cardinals or Brewers get starters they can pencil in as 3-4 WAR starters.

Re: Cliff Lee

Originally Posted by Falls City Beer

I'm saying I don't care if he isn't a finished product. Lee makes the Reds a lot closer to a WS contender than Bruce.

Put it this way: without Lee and with Bruce, then the Reds are certainly not a WS contender this year--or next year, or the year after that. Who knows when they will be? WS contention isn't currently inside this organization. Maybe they draft a Lincecum and get over that hump in the meantime, but I doubt it.

The Reds aren't World Series Contenders with Lee, but without Bruce. They lose an 850+ OPS bat and gold glover in RF. The difference in value between whoever replaces Bruce and Bruce, will not be that different than the difference between Lee and whomever he replaces on the Reds.

Trading Bruce for Lee doesn't make the Reds any better in 2010 and a ton worse for the next 3-4 years. Really bad idea.

Re: Cliff Lee

Originally Posted by TheNext44

The Reds aren't World Series Contenders with Lee, but without Bruce. They lose an 850+ OPS bat and gold glover in RF. The difference in value between whoever replaces Bruce and Bruce, will not be that different than the difference between Lee and whomever he replaces on the Reds.

Trading Bruce for Lee doesn't make the Reds any better in 2010 and a ton worse for the next 3-4 years. Really bad idea.

If they'd paid attention and gotten Damon, we'd have nothing to worry about in losing Bruce.

Re: Cliff Lee

Originally Posted by Falls City Beer

With a bullet. A rubber bullet.

Or maybe we're actually pretty good?

Three of the five pitchers on the current staff are under 25 with a sick arsenal and only getting better every start. They could/should get an additional late season boost from a returning former 16 game winner (who you love) and the best left-handed pitching prospect in all of baseball.

No one other than possibly the backup catcher is playing particularly over their heads. What, other than typical pessimism, makes you think it's a rubber bullet?

Re: Cliff Lee

I have no doubt they'll sit on what they have and continue to founder in a crummy division for years to come. While the Cardinals or Brewers get starters they can pencil in as 3-4 WAR starters.

It's a formula they've mastered for 20 years.

Neither team is trading it's best young talent in the majors for 1/2 year rentals.

CC was acquired for LaPorta. Holliday was acquired for Wallace. Neither has had as much success nor as much potential as Bruce.

I get that you're frustrated FCB. But you are completely misguided if you think the path to the World Series involves trading away your best players.

This Reds team is not like the crappy Reds teams of the last 10 years. This team is brimming with young talent on both sides of the ball that is actually performing at the major league level. It has good talent in AAA ready to supplement this talent. No, it's not a World Series team yet. And if you want to trade some of that up and coming talent for a veteran to improve the 25 man roster, I'm completely on board. But trading a significant chunk of talent and production off the 25 man roster is not the path to making the 25 man roster significantly stronger.

If you want to win in 2010 at the cost of significant future talent, you better do it right. And that means adding a whole lot more than Lee. Find a way to add at least 6 wins and we'd be in the territory of it being worth the risk.

Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

Re: Cliff Lee

Neither team is trading it's best young talent in the majors for 1/2 year rentals.

CC was acquired for LaPorta. Holliday was acquired for Wallace. Neither has had as much success nor as much potential as Bruce.

I get that you're frustrated FCB. But you are completely misguided if you think the path to the World Series involves trading away your best players.

This Reds team is not like the crappy Reds teams of the last 10 years. This team is brimming with young talent on both sides of the ball that is actually performing at the major league level. It has good talent in AAA ready to supplement this talent. No, it's not a World Series team yet. And if you want to trade some of that up and coming talent for a veteran to improve the 25 man roster, I'm completely on board. But trading a significant chunk of talent and production off the 25 man roster is not the path to making the 25 man roster significantly stronger.

If you want to win in 2010 at the cost of significant future talent, you better do it right. And that means adding a whole lot more than Lee. Find a way to add at least 6 wins and we'd be in the territory of it being worth the risk.

You gotta get 6 wins at some juncture--if not at this deadline (and honestly, how many teams in recent memory have added 6 wins worth of players at the deadline?), then you start all over again in the offseason, when you're trying to match dollars, not just prospects. The Reds lose two average starters this offseason--they're going to chase their own tails just to replace those innings.

Re: Cliff Lee

Originally Posted by Falls City Beer

You gotta get 6 wins at some juncture--if not at this deadline (and honestly, how many teams in recent memory have added 6 wins worth of players at the deadline?), then you start all over again in the offseason, when you're trying to match dollars, not just prospects. The Reds lose two average starters this offseason--they're going to chase their own tails just to replace those innings.

Volquez will be back. Chapman will be ready. Get Lee in the offseason using those dollars. Deal Alonso for Lee. Heck throw in Wood, but subtracting solid production from the major league roster mean's you'll come up short, you won't have bruce and then you won't have Lee.

"All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS

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