Trump: First 100 Days in The White House

Standing before Chief Justice John Roberts, he raises his right hand and places his left on the Bible.

“I, Donald Trump, do solemnly swear…”
After he takes the oath of office, he kisses his wife, Melania. His children hug him excitedly. Former President Barack Obama, a bewildered look on his face, shakes his hand. A few rows back Howard Stern gives the new president a thumbs up. Behind him Dennis Rodman mutters something incomprehensible. And then Donald J. Trump, the 45th President of the United States, turns to the lectern to offer an inaugural address that for the first time in history is being delivered without any text or, as much as anyone can tell, without any preparation whatsoever.

This is usually the point when Mitch McConnell wakes up screaming, his face drenched in cold sweat.

It can’t really happen, right? He can’t really win the presidency? Well, if you think that by now, then you’re still dreaming.

For the past eight months, since the pugnacious billionaire first toyed with a run for the White House, Washington has been consistent in their efforts to underestimate him. His level of support. His media savvy. His ability to dominate any conversation. Now, as he’s poised for a substantial win on Super Tuesday, the impossible has become improbable and now all but inevitable. Trump is likely to win the Republican nomination and, as he challenges Hillary Clinton, he may be only an FBI investigation away from winning the White House.

So the question few in Washington ever thought they’d contemplate is suddenly urgent: What would he do then? What would his first 100 days look like?

Here then are some educated guesses to some of the punditry’s most pressing questions:

Q: Will Donald Trump really deliver his inaugural address without notes or teleprompter?

Best-case scenario: No. The new president delivers a professional address that reaches out to those who didn’t vote for him and pledges to be a president for all the people. Self-aware and devoid of boasts. (Yes, it could happen.)

Money losing, third rate @WP lowballs crowd for my Inaugural. Biggest in history. Bad!
Worst-case scenario: Yes. It becomes a rambling and repetitive speech for the ages—full of irrelevant asides (“Melania changed her outfit three times, but I think she looks terrific”), a listing of states he won and by what margin (“24 point win in Utah”), and awkward questions to the audience. (“Are we going to make America great again?” “We’re building a wall. And who’s going to pay for it?”)

Most likely scenario: Closer to the best-case than the worst. Trump will deliver a prepared speech that he has practiced a couple of times, with the advice of capable writers. It won’t be Shakespearean, and there will be a few awkward asides. A speech that probably surprises people for its humility and graciousness—since the bar will be so low.

Q: Will the Trumps really live in the White House?

Best-case scenario: Yes, with modest updates and only the occasional sprinkling of Trump gold.

Worst-case scenario: Yes, but with no shortage of complaints or serious modifications. For one, the Trump Organization tries to totally overhaul the interior, (“We need at least two more jacuzzi tubs”). Portraits of Carter (“total loser”) and George W. Bush (“lied us into war”) are taken down in favor of the Trump children. Interior renovations are so extensive that there’s talk of adding on a new wing, leading to scathing criticism from those seeking to preserve the White House’s history. “Look, I’m told this place didn’t even have indoor plumbing for the first 50 years,” the new president says in his first press conference. “I mean these guys weren’t geniuses, OK?”

Most likely scenario: The Trumps use the White House largely for ceremonial purposes and meetings—as Mayor Bloomberg apparently did with Gracie Mansion and Arnold Schwarzenegger did with the governor’s mansion in Sacramento. The Trumps live in the White House off and on—Melania is rarely there—but spend large amounts of time at Mar-a-Lago (the “Southern White House”) and the suite at the new Trump hotel on Pennsylvania Avenue.

Q: Who will be the target of his first presidential tweet?

Best-case scenario: Twitter account is suspended for duration of the presidency.

Most likely scenario: The Washington Post. (Money losing, third rate @WP lowballs crowd for my Inaugural. Biggest in history. Bad!)

Q: Will anyone agree to be in his Cabinet?

Best-case scenario: Of course. This is Washington after all. Crowds rushing through the revolving door from the influence-peddling world to high office will be no smaller than usual.

Worst-case scenario: It’s really hard to find anyone. A series of high-profile refusals are leaked to the press, making the administration look desperate and unpopular. Fiorina attends a meeting with Trump to discuss the Treasury secretary post, only for the purpose of publicly ridiculing him in front of cameras after the meeting is over. “Who’d want to look at that face in Cabinet meetings?” she says.

Most likely scenario: Yes—lots of ambitious pols join the administration, though there are a few refusals. Cabinet members might include Mark Cuban, Jeff Sessions, Rep. Duncan Hunter—one of the first to endorse him—Mike Huckabee, Rick Santorum. Oprah is asked do something in the administration—though probably not an actual Cabinet post—and declines.

The real questions are: 1) Will Trump be able to talk his favorite insult target, Jeb Bush, into being secretary of energy? (No.) and 2) Will Ann Coulter agree to be head of border control? (Definitely!)

Q: How will Trump get along with the Republican leadership?

Worst-case scenario: Leaders resign en masse, saying they can’t work with the president. (Republicans lose many seats in the 2016 election—and Trump is blamed.) A plurality forms a third party. At various points, he informs senators, “You’re fired” and then finances recall campaigns in their home states.

Best-case scenario: Rather well, in fact. At least in the first 100 days. Trump charms many and shows a willingness to make deals. He shows surprising support for Paul Ryan’s efforts to broaden the party base. Trump, after all, is not an ideologue of any sort. On the campaign trail, he has gone out of his way to praise Planned Parenthood, vow to protect Social Security and seek to improve his standing with minorities. He was even attacked in South Carolina for being too respectful of gay rights.

Most-likely scenario:He treats the Republicans just as he’s doing now—like they are the embarrassment. He sides with Democrats and Republicans on issues as it suits him, with no real concern about re-election or consistency. This proves a winning approach to a sizable group of Americans, by the way.

Q: Who will be the guest of honor at Trump’s first State Dinner?

Worst-case scenario: The president of Mexico—who is then handed an itemized bill for the costs immediately after the reception.

Best-case scenario: The president of Mexico—who is then handed an itemized bill for the costs immediately after the reception.

Most likely scenario: None—at least in the first year until relations with other leaders cool.

Q: How will the president do in his first press conference?

Worst-case scenario: It’s a yuuuuuuuge disaster. The press conference starts with Press Secretary Piers Morgan insulting reporters by name and mocking their most recent articles. President Trump enters late, refuses to take questions from any reporter he doesn’t personally like, and walks out abruptly. (As a result, his approval ratings increase by 8 points.)

Best-case scenario: A concise, to the point opening statement, in which the president expresses his willingness to work with both parties on pressing problems. He walks back some of his more extreme positions and discusses how humbled and honored he is to assume the job once held by Washington, FDR and Reagan.

Most likely scenario: Somewhere in between. The president begins with a statement that contains random observations and a few main points that appeal to his supporters. He compliments House and Senate leaders and says he’s looking forward to “getting good deals done for the American people.” He brags about poll numbers he likes and attacks outlets that sponsor polls he doesn’t. (“You’re with the money-losing Wall Street Journal, aren’t you? Your polls are a joke. I half wish someone would escort you out of here.”) There will be some attention-getting feud with a personality (Lena Dunham? Rosie O’Donnell? Kanye West?).

Q: What will be Trump’s first policy win?

Worst-case scenario: There isn’t one. The president heads to the Mexican border and says he will start a trade war with the government and a ban on all travel into the country until Mexico’s president agrees to pay for a wall. Trump construction crews appear in Texas and Arizona, ready to begin implementation. Mexico laughs at the suggestion.

President Trump enters late, refuses to take questions from any reporter he doesn’t personally like, and walks out abruptly. (As a result, his approval ratings increase by 8 points.)

Best-case scenario: The president works with both parties on a middle class tax cut that lowers rates for those making $250,000 or less. The president calls this a down payment on his more ambitious plan to slash rates across the board and reform the tax code.

Most likely scenario: An infrastructure bill that allocates a huge amount of federal dollars to bridges, roads and highways—pork that appeals to members of both parties.

Worst-case scenario: This is actually attempted and the issue goes all the way to the Supreme Court, where the president loses. Outraged tweets follow.

Most likely scenario: It comes up at his first news conference, but there is no effort made at all—though there is a pause in resettling any refugees from the Middle East into the United States, pending further study.

Q. If the Senate really holds out on confirming Scalia’s replacement, who would President Trump pick?

Best-case scenario:A sober, low-key consultation with members of both parties leads to a well-qualified candidate who has a shot at Senate approval.

Worst-case scenario:The president floats several names and has them come into the White House for high-profile meetings/auditions. To reporters, he openly tests whatever unorthodox candidate appeals to him that day—“Wouldn’t Ellen DeGeneres be great on the Court? I’m just saying.”

Most-likely scenario: He picks a female or minority with a conservative track record and brags repeatedly that she “is the greatest nominee ever selected for anything ever.” He dares the Senate not to confirm. A six-month long bitter confirmation fight ensues. The candidate is eventually withdrawn in favor of a compromise moderate that dissatisfies almost everyone. Trump declares victory.

Q: What will be the president’s approval rating after 100 days?

Worst-case scenario: 33 percent (assuming many Republicans split off into a warring third party and Democrats don’t make any effort to work with Trump).

Best-case scenario: 53 percent. (The president surprises people with a humble approach to the job, but can’t resist occasional flares of Trump bravado.)

Most likely scenario: 45 percent. (Nothing overtly terrible happens, and he scores about the same as most new presidents.)

Q: How many celebrities will make good on their threats to move out of the United States after Trump’s election?

Most likely scenario: None.

Best-case scenario: All.

Q: Will there be discussions in Congress about impeaching the president?

Most likely scenario:Yes, on the left fringe. But nothing serious.

Q: Will President Trump last 100 days in office?

Worst-case, best-case, and most likely scenarios (based on how you look at it): Yes.

Matt Latimer is a former speechwriter for President George W. Bush. He is currently a co-partner in Javelin, a literary agency and communications firm based in Alexandria, and contributing editor at Politico Magazine.