>> Friday, March 19, 2010

Today and Tomorrow will be about perfect if you ask me. I couldn't ask for better weather conditions for the first day of spring tomorrow. We will see temperatures around 72 and 75 for Friday and Saturday, with temperatures in the 40s over night. Our next weather maker will be Sunday night into the overnight hours. Currently it looks to be mainly showers with a few embedded thunderstorms. This doesn't look to be a widespread severe event for us due to lack of instability (Cape,lapse rates) shear will be around so if we can get some storms to fire off along the frontal boundary then we could see a few severe warnings issued.

I have been looking at some literature on recent and forecasted solar activity. In the 11 year cycle we are currently exiting the minimum phase. Generally this means we have had low sunspot activity on the sun. Theoretically the more sun spots the more radiation is emitted towards the earth which can affect satellites, satellite transmissions, magnetic fields, and even global climate. It is believed that for the past 50 years we have been in a highly active phase and we are beginning to shift to a very low period or solar minimum. Some studies even show that this solar minimum can even counter global carbon based warming.

The most well documented minimum occurred during the period of 1645-1715, known as the Maunder Minimum. Coincidentally or not it match up with The Little Ice Age of that same period. This period saw the coldest average global temperatures in over a 1000 years. However scientist have yet to be able to connect the Little Ice Age to solar activity. Other reasons could be connected to high volcanic activity, global ocean currents variability, or even the huge die off of humans during the black plaque and Columbia exchange, which would have limited carbon emissions.

We get to enjoy some absolutely wonderful weather today and tomorrow across the region. More on that in a second.

What a great first day of the NCAA Tournament yesterday. The first four games were decided by a total of 12 points and included a double overtime game. Lots of other good games through the remainder of the day as well. Thoroughly enjoyed the action.

My bracket is still in pretty good shape. All of my Elite 8 teams are still alive, and I only have lost one Sweet 16 team.

My Bulldogs (I am still recovering from the devastating loss to Kentucky last Sunday) host North Carolina in the NIT tomorrow. This week has been spring break for the MSU students, so while it probably won't be as rowdy as a normal basketball game is at The Hump, I hope it is still packed and a great atmosphere. Go State!

Back to the weather, we will have sunshine with highs in the low to mid 70s today and mid 70s tomorrow. Spring officially begins tomorrow afternoon, and we get to welcome Spring with some fantastic weather.

I think we will squeeze in a large portion of Sunday with dry weather before showers and some storms arrive by Sunday night. A few strong storms are possible, but it is not a great severe weather setup here. It bears watching though.

Clouds will linger at times with cooler temps Monday and Tuesday, and a stray shower also looks possible as the upper level low moves right overhead.

Wednesday and Thursday will feature a good but of sun with highs warming back up to the upper 60s to lower 70s.

>> Thursday, March 18, 2010

Cloudy conditions for most of the day with clearing skies as we go into the overnight. The rain should stay along the coast with little or no chance for a shower here today. Friday and Sunday will be about perfect with temps in the low 70s.

For the most part the weather for the U.S is quiet so there isn't much to talk about. It is still a little early for me to consider a tropical outlook for the Atlantic so I will concentrate on basketball.

OK, I know you all are going to roll your eyes but lets talk NIT. We may have a possible in-office match up. Matthew is a Mississippi State grad and I am a NC State grad, if MSU beats Carolina (please) and NC State beats UAB we will play in the third round. However, if Matthew's team can't pull it out we still get to play Carolina in Carmichael. The potential to beat Carolina in Carmichael would be pretty magical. Being a NC State fan though we all know how things will turn out, a UAB blowout.

As for the NCAA tournament I always try to stay away from favorites that all the analysts are picking.

Some of my underdogs advancing from the first round: N Iowa, SDSU, Ga Tech, Wofford, Washington,

An area of low pressure continues to slowly spin off the coast near Wilmington today. The low pressure is throwing a lot of cloud cover back through the region today. Rain will fall along the coast and coastal plain, and some light rain is possible across the Piedmont at times today. Highs around the Piedmont will be in the mid to upper 60s for most.

Terrific weather is on tap tomorrow and Saturday with sunshine and highs in the low to mid 70s.

Our next system will bring us a chance of showers and a couple of storms by later Sunday and Sunday night.

I have adjusted the forecast for early next week a bit. It will be cooler Monday and Tuesday, but as of now, it does not look as cold during that time frame as it did previously. So, I will go with 50s for highs Monday, then back into the 60s by Tuesday.

>> Wednesday, March 17, 2010

Quiet and milder weather for much of the region on this St. Patrick's Day. Highs should warm into the low to mid 60s, generally speaking, around the region. Temps will be closer to 60 around Charlotte and closer to the mid 60s around RDU. The reason....clouds. The clouds will get thinner and thinner the farther northeast you go in the region.

An area of low pressure, this morning located along the Gulf coast, will move to just off the Carolina coast tonight into tomorrow. This will spread lots of high clouds into the Piedmont and spread some rain through southern Georgia, Florida, and into coastal parts of the Carolinas, south of the Outer Banks.

For the Piedmont, we stay dry with highs tomorrow warming into the upper 60s to near 70.

Friday and Saturday look glorious with sunshine and highs in the low to mid 70s.

A sharp cold front will approach Sunday and bring the chance of some showers and storms. Behind that front, it will be much chillier by Monday with highs returning to the 50s and the likelihood of sub-freezing temps for much of the region by Tuesday morning.

>> Tuesday, March 16, 2010

Our relatively quiet work week weather continues. The big coastal low that caused all of the flooding problems in the New England and upper mid-Atlantic states continues to slowly pull farther out to sea. We will see an increase in the clouds again this afternoon with highs in the upper 50s to near 60.

We begin to warm things up again tomorrow with highs in the low to mid 60s. Look for upper 60s Thursday.

Delightful weather will be with us Friday and Saturday with highs in the low to maybe even some mid 70s and lots of sunshine!

Our next system rolls in Sunday and will bring some showers and maybe a thunderstorm or two. Behind that system, it will be much cooler by Monday and Tuesday with highs likely returning to the 50s.

The GFS continues to want to hang a piece of energy back and generate some precip Monday. I have not bought into that scenario as of now, and with this morning's forecast package, I have just left in some clouds for Monday with no precip.

>> Monday, March 15, 2010

Back in the saddle this morning. Thanks for all of the well-wishes. I continue to battle a lot of knee swelling...we will see what the doctor says later this week.

Give this morning's video a watch....even though the weather is fairly quiet, there are some interesting things to look at.

Wow, just a heart-breaking loss for my Bulldogs yesterday to Kentucky. They absolutely played their guts out, were leading by 5 points with :30 seconds left, and Kentucky winds up tipping the ball in with 0.1 left to send the game to overtime. Now, I don't like complaining about officiating, and overall, the game was officiated fairly well. But, at the end of the game, two errors really hurt MSU. With 4.9 seconds left, KY intentionally misses a FT, and John Wall commits and obvious lane violation. That doesn't get called. Not only that, the clock did not start on time, so the shot that went in with 0.1 left should never have wound up counting. And just to add insult to injury, it winds up MSU did not receive an at-large bid to the NCAA tournament.

Sorry to the vent here. I love Mississippi State, and those guys gave it everything they had. To come up short like that is just painful.

OK, enough of that. On to the weather. A big upper low is spinning off of the New England coast and continues to cause lots of beach erosion issues and interior flooding up that way. Around here, we are too far removed from the low for any precipitation, but we will continue to see a good amount of cloud cover at times the next few days. Highs today will be near 60, and it will be fairly breezy at times.

A delightful finish to the week is ahead for Friday and Saturday. Look for lots of sunshine and highs warming to around 70. A strong cold front will move through Sunday, bringing a chance of showers. Behind the front, it will be significant colder for Monday.