The Cromer Terrace blog - for independent graduate perspectives on Current Affairs, Cultural Issues and The Arts

Tuesday, 10 April 2012

Francois Hollande – The Unknown President?

The Socialist candidate in the 2012 French Presidential
election Francois Hollande received an official endorsement this week from his
former rival, Presidential candidate and the mother of his four children Segolene
Royal, as ‘official’ campaigning began on Monday ahead of the first round of
voting on April 22nd. Yet little is known about Hollande outside of
France; if you asked most Europeans what they know about France’s potential
leader, you would most likely be met with head scratching and listless shrugs. This
is in part because Hollande carries negligible international experience, and as
such has been largely ignored by key European leaders on his campaign visits to
Germany and the UK. His measured campaign and lack of strong Presidential personality,
so beloved in post-Gaullist France, has been criticised by some as a failing to
seize the initiative on his significant early poll lead, allowing his more
experienced and aggressive opponent Sarkozy to make up ground.

Inevitably, President Sarkozy has relentlessly attacked his adversary
on this issue, questioning his governing credentials and lack of political
identity throughout the period of unofficial campaigning. Can France be
entrusted to a man who has never even commanded a government ministry? Indeed,
were it not for the well publicised international scandal that engulfed
Dominique Strauss-Khan last year, leading to the initial favourite for the
Socialist candidacy having to step aside, Hollande may well have not been here
at all. This kind of personal assault has been typical of Sarkozy’s assertive
political style, as his campaign has attempted to cover up the fact that he was
the first president in the history of the French Fifth Republic to be less
popular than their Prime Minister (Francois Fillon) and had a ‘recovering’
approval rating of merely 34% as of November 2011[i].
By comparison Hollande has largely refrained from mentioning Sarkozy at all,
most significantly in his keynote speech at Bourget in January.

In times of great political uncertainty for both France and
Europe, what one can be assured of is that if Hollande is elected come April, Europe
will have to welcome a vastly different character from Sarkozy, the ‘bling-bling
president’, to the top table. Hollande has pushed his image as an everyman of
considered intellect, in comparison to the flashy showmanship and often erratic
outbursts which have characterised Sarkozy’s time in office. Hollande has cast
financial capitalism as his enemy and thus looked to capture much of the energy
and disaffection of what Occupy would have called ‘the 99%’. In this mode Hollande
has also pledged to implement a 75% top rate tax on earnings of over €1m and promised
to renegotiate the European Treaty should he be elected.

Controversial as these policies have been, they have been
par for the course in what has been a fractious, values lead, discourse light
campaign, as neither candidate has been moved to any genuine discussion about
the French economy, the countries budget deficit or the loss of its triple A
credit rating last year. Hollande still has a 55% 2nd round poll
lead[ii]
but the gap is narrowing. Sarkozy has now overturned Hollande’s first round
lead polling at 29% to Hollande’s 26.5%[iii].
If Hollande wishes to claim victory he may have to take the initiative, as passively
allowing the wily Sarkozy and the far right to dominate the current discourse with
predictable posturing over immigration and crime may leave him isolated. Unless
he can redirect discussion and get serious on the economy, as well as answer some
of his opponents and critics challenges by showing some Presidential character
and coming out of his shell; Hollande may well find himself left in the wake of
the Sarkozy show.