National has dropped for the second 3News-Reid Research poll in a row.

In November, the party dropped 3.5% to 46.8%. A poll released this evening has National on 44.5%.

Labour is up just over 1% to 33.5%.

The Greens have nudged up from 10.2% to 12.4%, giving the Labour-Greens bloc a combined 45.9% - a similar result a January 22 Roy Morgan poll that also gave the parties an edge over National.

Kingmaker role for Winston
The 3News-Reid Research poll has NZ First rising from 4.2% to 5.7%, which would put leader Winston Peters in a potential kingmaker role. Prime Minister John Key recently indicated his party is now willing to consider working with NZ First. (Roy Morgan had NZ First on 4%, below the MMP threshold.)

However, there was one scenaio that would see National squeak back into power - if a Conservative candidate wins the new Auckland seat, and brings two MPs in on the list, and ACT and UnitedFuture hold their seats, National and its allies would have 61.

ACT (who chose Jamie Whyte as its new leader earlier today) and UnitedFuture both registered zero percent; Colin Craig's Conservative Party was on 2.1% and the Maori Party on 1%.

The 3 News/Reid Research poll of 1000 people was taken between January 23-29 and has a margin of error of 3.1 - a period that took in John Key's "elite teacher strike force" state-of-the-nation speech and caught partial reaction David Cunliffe's "baby bonus" policy launch (January 27).

In the poll's preferred prime minister ratings, John Key was down 1.9% to 39%, while David Cunlffe was flat on 10.8%.

9 Comments & Questions

Winston wont buy into National. They put him out in Tauranga. He'd be better to sit on the fence, and vote for things that make a difference.

Hopefully, it doesnt come to that. One things for sure, National have made no hard calls. The current system is broke, and will not be able to afford funding the current level of social responsibility without collecting more tax from the people and companies that dont pay their fair share. All National have done is weaken the Balance Sheet, and feed the line it will trickle down; when actually the opposite has happened.

Under Nationals policies, probably 5% of the population have benefited (temporarily) from their leadership. Hardly democracy. The long term consequences of high debt and no assets to support this are going to lead to less money for state services, i.e. education, police, hospitals, retirement funding.

And increasing GST again is not the solution. It reduces the purchasing power of the masses, meaning theres less money for local businesses to make ends meet.

Under National, no extra "wealth" has been generated in NZ.
People feel wealthier because house values have rocketed and owners are able to now increase their mortgages to buy cars, tvs etc.
If the cheap money we now have had not gone into house inflation, we would all be much better off.
There will be much pain and tears in the future when the States stops flooding the world with cheap money.
National has blown it.!!!

Not the game changer the Paddy promised with all parties moving within the margin of error.

It confirms what would have happened anyway as NZFirst always does better in election year once Winston starts visiting the retirement villages.

Would Winston be willing to support a minority National government as that is looking like the most likely option at the moment. While I cant see Winstone working with Key, it is more likely than him working with the Greens in my opinion and Key is likely to retire mid term, which Will have Winston smelling blood.

At least there is one good comment in this lot - Anonymous has got it right - All Maori Give Aways (Greivance), Paid Parental Leave, Competition for ACC, Student Loans stopped and a dismantling of Political Correctness is need.