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Now that this first loss is out of the way, I think that our boys can still go out and end up in the National Championship game in Pasadena. This season can play something like the 2011 season for Alabama and LSU. As we know LSU won that game, and bama sat out and ended up playing and winning the NC that year when they played each other again.

So here is the situation as I see it... UGA has another loss against Florida, and we win against Florida, and finish the SEC 7-1, and win the East. UGA finishes with a 10-2 record sitting at home as we play for the title... I believe that if all works out in the favor of college football, we can end up playing them again for the NC, just like Bama played LSU for it, and bama winning it, after losing the regular season meeting.

Now, the likliness of this happening is slim to not really gonna happen, but I like the way it can potentially set up. Will it? Well, there are 120 other teams trying to do the same thing, so we will see how it goes, but if we run the table, and we have some help down the line, that clemson loss may creep up and haunt GA just enough that they are #2, and we are #1 playing for the NC.

Call me crazy, call me stupid, call me dumb, call me an idiot, call me anything under the sun, but I hope that we can run the table for the best season EVER at South Carolina. GO COCKS, and if its not Georgia, I do hope we can still end up in the SEC, and the National Championship game, and win it all. Wanna talk about seeing a Gamecock head home in a minute, I will be there that week and wont go back to Georgia until the final parade. GO COCKS!

So here is the situation as I see it... UGA has another loss against Florida, and we win against Florida, and finish the SEC 7-1, and win the East. UGA finishes with a 10-2 record sitting at home as we play for the title...

Snap...since Saturday, I've been thinking this:

Georgia with a 10-2 record would still win the East, because their other loss would be OOC (Clemson). In order for us to play for the SEC championship, we need to win the rest of our conference games and they need to drop two games within the conference (with the most likely candidates being LSU and Florida).

But I just checked the tie-break rules, and you're totally right. In the event of a three-way tie, once you get far down enough (like, tie-breaker #4 or something), the team with the best overall record wins (where the overall record includes both in-conference and out-of-conference games). So if we win out and Georgia loses to Florida, Georgia and Florida would both be 10-2 and we'd win the division with an 11-1 record. If Georgia loses to LSU but beats Florida, we're out of the SECCG. If Georgia loses to LSU and Florida, high fives for everyone.

I could also imagine this scenario playing out, which would get us to the NCG without playing in the SECCG (I think chances are slim...but it could happen):

Carolina, Georgia, and Clemson all win out (well, Clemson loses to Carolina in November). Carolina finishes the regular season 11-1, with our final win against Clemson. If Clemson wins out (and they could--their only real remaining threat is FSU (and Clemsoning)), they could very possibly be one of the top 2 teams in the country (Bama could lose to A&M this week, Oregon is in for a tough game when they play at Stanford this year). If we manage to win out, we should be around the top 5, and a win over a top 2 team could easily put us in the top 3. Assuming Georgia wins out, they'll be in the SECCG--and at this point, it really doesn't matter what happens in the championship game. If Georgia gets stomped by Bama, A&M, or LSU, we have a fair shot of making the NCG (against another SEC team--but one that we haven't played yet this season). We'd be a one-loss team, with that loss coming early in the season and our most recent victory over a top 3 team. If Georgia wins, things might be trickier because of the whole rematch situation, but I still think the polls could work some magic in our favor.

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All that being said, we really only have limited control over our own destiny at this point. If we win out, we could still be left out in the cold, depending on how other teams do (both in the SEC and OOC). Our best hope is for every team from other conferences to stumble along the way (so no power conference has an undefeated champion) and hopefully be able to make it as a one-loss SEC team. This would be easier if we end up being SEC champs, but I think it's more realistic that we miss the SECCG and somehow get in as a top-3 team that just beat Clemson.

Too many teams are gonna run the table this year. Louisville, Ohio st. And Oregon. And Clemson if we don't beat them.

I'm not convinced that Ohio State will go undefeated. I watched both of their games so far, and they have some issues to take care of. I could see Wisconsin or Michigan beating them (I'm not particularly high on Michigan, but it's at their place, which has historically made a difference). Even Northwestern could give them trouble.

I'm also not convinced that Oregon makes it out unscathed. I'd give Stanford the upper hand in their match-up this year (which would then make Stanford a problem, but oh well).

And I'm not sure that Louisville makes the NCG even if they go undefeated. Rutgers and Cincinnati have already lost, dropping their strength of schedule from "pretty bad" to "absolute crap." Their toughest game this year will probably be UCF.

Georgia with a 10-2 record would still win the East, because their other loss would be OOC (Clemson). In order for us to play for the SEC championship, we need to win the rest of our conference games and they need to drop two games within the conference (with the most likely candidates being LSU and Florida).

But I just checked the tie-break rules, and you're totally right. In the event of a three-way tie, once you get far down enough (like, tie-breaker #4 or something), the team with the best overall record wins (where the overall record includes both in-conference and out-of-conference games). So if we win out and Georgia loses to Florida, Georgia and Florida would both be 10-2 and we'd win the division with an 11-1 record. If Georgia loses to LSU but beats Florida, we're out of the SECCG. If Georgia loses to LSU and Florida, high fives for everyone.

I could also imagine this scenario playing out, which would get us to the NCG without playing in the SECCG (I think chances are slim...but it could happen):

Carolina, Georgia, and Clemson all win out (well, Clemson loses to Carolina in November). Carolina finishes the regular season 11-1, with our final win against Clemson. If Clemson wins out (and they could--their only real remaining threat is FSU (and Clemsoning)), they could very possibly be one of the top 2 teams in the country (Bama could lose to A&M this week, Oregon is in for a tough game when they play at Stanford this year). If we manage to win out, we should be around the top 5, and a win over a top 2 team could easily put us in the top 3. Assuming Georgia wins out, they'll be in the SECCG--and at this point, it really doesn't matter what happens in the championship game. If Georgia gets stomped by Bama, A&M, or LSU, we have a fair shot of making the NCG (against another SEC team--but one that we haven't played yet this season). We'd be a one-loss team, with that loss coming early in the season and our most recent victory over a top 3 team. If Georgia wins, things might be trickier because of the whole rematch situation, but I still think the polls could work some magic in our favor.

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All that being said, we really only have limited control over our own destiny at this point. If we win out, we could still be left out in the cold, depending on how other teams do (both in the SEC and OOC). Our best hope is for every team from other conferences to stumble along the way (so no power conference has an undefeated champion) and hopefully be able to make it as a one-loss SEC team. This would be easier if we end up being SEC champs, but I think it's more realistic that we miss the SECCG and somehow get in as a top-3 team that just beat Clemson.

I was also under the impression that Georgia would have to lose 2 (most likely to LSU and Florida) and we would have to win out to make it to the SEC championship. This is really good news if you're right. However, it's probably moot since Georgia is good and Florida kind of sucks. This would also require Florida to lose to us, but not lose to anybody else, which is not likely.

UGA won't lose to Florida, and Florida will have several loses anyway, there be no 3 way tie. LSU might beat Georgia, but it will be tough since the game will be played in Athens. We've seen this play out the last two years, once they have the advantage over us they don't give it up. Just have to hope someone catches them napping. I doubt it though.

Any given Saturday, any team can win or lose. So to say that Georgia is all of a sudden immune from losing to Florida, Vandy, Missouri, or Tennessee is not thinking right... I just said Florida as an example, and again, its hypothetical.

I was also under the impression that Georgia would have to lose 2 (most likely to LSU and Florida) and we would have to win out to make it to the SEC championship. This is really good news if you're right. However, it's probably moot since Georgia is good and Florida kind of sucks. This would also require Florida to lose to us, but not lose to anybody else, which is not likely.

Actually, I think you're right and I just misinterpreted the tiebreaking rules (which means my first thought was right, too).

From Wikipedia (which is obviously always right):

Three or more-team tie-breaker procedure:
1. (Once the tie has been reduced to two teams, go to the two-team tie-breaker format.)
2. Combined head-to-head record among the tied teams.
3. Record of the tied teams within the division.
4. Records against the team within the division with the best overall (divisional and non-divisional) Conference record and proceeding through the division. Multiple ties within the division will be broken from first to last.
5. Complete record vs. non-division teams.
6. Complete record vs. all common non-divisional teams.
7. Record vs. common non-divisional team with the best overall Conference (divisional and non-divisional) record and proceeding through other common non-divisional teams based on their order of finish within their division.
8. The tied team with the highest ranking in the Bowl Championship Series Standings following the last weekend of regular-season games shall be the divisional representative in the SEC Championship Game, unless the second of the tied teams is ranked within five-or-fewer places of the highest ranked tied team. In this case, the head-to-head results of the top two ranked tied teams shall determine the representative in the SEC Championship Game.

Maybe I'm reading this wrong, but here's what I'm seeing:

Assuming Georgia wins the rest of their games except against Florida, Florida wins the rest of their games except against us, and we win the rest of our games (for the record, I don't think this happens...but the thread is titled "hypothetical situation"):

2. All 3 teams will have the same head-to-head record.
3. All 3 teams will have the same record within the division.
4. All 3 teams will have the same record within the conference, so no team can knock another out by virtue of having a better cross-division conference record.
5. If "non-division" teams means teams from the conference, but not the division, all 3 teams would be undefeated against the SEC-W
6. Doesn't matter, everyone is undefeated against the SEC-W
7. Doesn't matter, same reasons.
8. This matters.

So basically, if the whole Carolina/Georgia/Florida round robin weird-fest happens, we not only have to be the highest team ranked in the BCS at the end of the season, but also have to be at least 6 spots higher than Georgia. If we're assuming Georgia doesn't lose another game in the conference, the only way this happens is if they lose OOC.

So basically, Georgia has to lose to North Texas, App State, or Georgia Tech.

...which I think means the back-door route to the NCG is much more likely, given this hypothetical situation.

Any given Saturday, any team can win or lose. So to say that Georgia is all of a sudden immune from losing to Florida, Vandy, Missouri, or Tennessee is not thinking right... I just said Florida as an example, and again, its hypothetical.

Yes. Georgia and the taters have lousy defenses....sooner or later their offense is not going to have a good game, but their defense will have given up too many points to win. Georgia could easily lose 2 SEC games....the taters could easily lose 2 ACC games. Even if a team like Louisville goes undefeated, their strength will kill them.