LONG TERM OUTLOOK: MIXED BAG (UP OVERALL)

The Pistons are competing to make the playoffs, but they have seen their chances go up and down this season. In our pre-season forecast they had a 79.3% chance of making the playoffs. On 7/3 they had a 94.5% chance before dropping to 23.6% on 11/6. From the start of the season to now their chances are up to 88.4%. They have a 4.1% chance of winning their division. They have a very slim chance (

Season Strength of Schedule is Relatively Easy

Remaining Opponents' Win Percentage Rest of Season: 49% #11 Easiest

Season-to-Date Opponents' Win Percentage: 46% #12 Easiest

Pistons' Season Forecast Changes

SEASON-TO-DATE GRADE: B-

[NOTE: Early in the season, we include last season in the analysis] At 7-6 the Pistons are exceeding expectations. The combined projected win total based on per game money lines is 6.5 wins. If you consider winning as an underdog or winning by 10+ as a slight favorite, then they have 2 good wins but they also have 2 bad losses. They have been better than expected on the road. Their 4-3 road record is +14% better than their expected win percentage. Over the past 3 weeks they have played poorly going 4-6, 40%. The Pistons should be a slightly above average team based on simulations where they won 50.6% of the simulations played vs every other team as if they were playing on a neutral court with players available in the playoffs (#16 in the league). They have moved up from #20 in the league back on 10/29.

STATISTICAL STRENGTHS & WEAKNESSES

SHOOTING (WEAKNESS): They are a bad shooting team with a true FG% of 52.3% (#30 in League). Despite the weak shooting %, they still average more points per game (109.8) than expected (108.7). On the road they average 110.6 (108.1 expected), and at home 108.8 ppg (109.4 expected).

DEFENSE (AVERAGE): They are an average defensive team allowing opponents to shoot 55.8 true FG% (#16 in League). They allow 110.7 pts per game vs an expected value of 108.6. They are allowing 108.9 (110.3 expected) on the road, and at home 112.8 ppg (106.6 expected).

REBOUNDING (STRENGTH): They significantly outrebound opponents by an average of +2.7 per game (#11 in league).

TURNOVERS (ABOVE AVERAGE): They have an Average turnover margin of 0.5 per game (#15 in league).

NEXT 5 GAME OUTLOOK: PARTLY SUNNY

The forecast for their next 5 games is generally good. They have 2 likely wins where they are winning >62% of the simulations which translates to being at least a -5 point favorite, 2 more games where they are favored by at least 55%, and just 2 games where they are a clear underdog. The most likely scenario over the next 5 games is a record of 3-2 (34% chance). Their chances of winning their next 5 are 4.4%. At #6 in the conference, they are behind the Celtics by half a game. With a -0.68 disadvantage in projected wins over their next 5 games they may find themselves further behind in the conference. They are in a battle with Magic in the conference. With a +1.26 advantage in projected wins over their next 5 games they have a good chance of widening the gap. The Fatigue Index factors for travel (miles, time zones crossed) and games played. Based on this index the Pistons are the 20th most fatigued team heading into the next game. Over the next few weeks, the Pistons are playing 8 games, traveling 1762 miles crossing 2 time zones. They rank #29 on the Fatigue Index during this time period.

Win%, Opp, and Distance to Road Game (**Indicates Back-to-Back)

NOV 19

CLOSE GAME

61% CLE

--

NOV 21

CLOSE GAME

46% @HOU

881 miles

NOV 23

LIKELY LOSS

36% HOU

--

NOV 25

LIKELY WIN

70% PHO

--

NOV 27

CLOSE GAME

59% NY

--

NOV 30

LIKELY WIN

75% CHI

--

DEC 1**

LIKELY LOSS

27% GS

--

DEC 3

CLOSE GAME

49% OKC

--

DEC 5

CLOSE GAME

45% @MIL

914 miles

DEC 7

CLOSE GAME

48% PHI

--

Sportsline has a free pick on the Detroit Pistons' next game. They are -11 favorites and are not expected to cover. Visit Sportsline.com to find out if there is good value on this pick and get picks vs totals, money lines and a complete projected box score of the game.

FANTASY PROFILE

Based on rest of season projections, these are the 6 most valuable fantasy players based on their projected position rank (Guards, Forwards, Centers). Overvalued players are rated higher by the market based on ownership% and vice versa.