Percentage of Democratic U.S. House Seats from California and New York soars to a record high of 28.1 percent after the 2010 elections

Despite losing six U.S. House seats in New York on November 2nd (with defeats in NY-01 and NY-25 still tentative), the Democratic Party nonetheless continues to be ever more a party of two coasts - with a particular emphasis on the Empire and Golden States.

A Smart Politics analysis of 81 election cycles dating back to 1850 finds that the Democratic Party now comprises a larger percentage of Californians and New Yorkers in the U.S. House than at any point since California joined the Union.

When the 112th Congress convenes in January, 28.1 percent of the Democratic caucus will hail from California (34 members) and New York (20 members).

That marks an increase of 4.8 points from 23.3 percent of the caucus after the 2008 election and 6.5 points since the last Democratic collapse after the Republican Revolution of 1994 (21.6 percent).

While Democrats did not suffer any net losses in California in 2010 (though victories in CA-11 and CA-20 are still pending), the Party endured substantial setbacks in the south and Midwest, leaving the percentage of its U.S. Representatives from two of the nation's most liberal states at an all-time high.

And although the raw number of representatives in the Democratic caucus hailing from these two states has been higher after previous election cycles (60 seats in 2008, 57 in 1976 and 2006, and 55 in 1974), the Party has never been as reliant on the New York and California electorate as it is today.

Prior to the 28.1 percent mark tallied by the two states after the 2010 election cycle, the previous record high was 26.3 percent set in 1864 during the Civil War (with a depleted caucus due to seceded southern states).

During that cycle, New York held 10 of the nation's mere 38 Democratic House seats, with California sending none to D.C. (An 11th Democratic New York seat won on Election Day, NY-08, was later lost in a contested election).

The number of delegates from each of the two states has varied greatly across the decades, but has held relatively flat cumulatively since 1962.

Between 1962 and 2010 New York and California have accounted for between 18.2 percent and 19.1 percent of all U.S. House seats (with California's delegation increasing and New York's decreasing all the while).

Dating back to California's statehood in 1850, the two states comprised 15.5 percent of the nation's U.S. representatives, dipping to a low of 11.5 percent in the 1890s and early 1900s, and spiking to highs of 19.1 percent in 1860 and the 1990s.

The two states currently account for 18.9 percent of U.S. House seats.

There has been much greater variation in the percentage of Democratic seats from these two states, however, with the California and New York contingent comprising less than half of its current proportion as late as 1958 (35 of 283 Democratic seats, or just 12.4 percent).

There has also been a 61.5 percent increase in the percentage of Californians and New Yorkers in the House Democratic caucus from the 1962 election (17.4 percent) to 2010 (28.1 percent).

Aside from a brief surge in the concentration of Democrats from New York and California during the Civil War period (eclipsing 20 percent from 1860-1868), the Party's reliance on the delegations from these two states has been at an unprecedented high across the last two decades.

During the 1992-2000 redistricting period, 21.6 percent of Democratic House seats came from the Empire and Golden states - after relatively stable periods from 1962-1970 (18.0 percent), 1982-1990 (18.1 percent), and 1982-1990 (18.1 percent).

That percentage has now increased to 25.4 percent during the 2002-2010 period, or nearly twice as high as the 1952-1960 election cycles (12.9 percent).

Percentage of New York and California Delegations of All Democrats in U.S. House By Redistricting Period, 1850-2010

Period

NY

CA

Total

Democrats

%

1850

16

2

18

127

14.2

1852-1860

49

8

57

499

11.4

1862-1870

65

4

69

328

21.0

1872-1880

61

8

69

694

9.9

1882-1890

92

13

105

935

11.2

1892-1900

62

7

69

747

9.2

1902-1910

72

4

76

880

8.6

1912-1920

93

16

109

1,058

10.3

1922-1930

116

7

123

964

12.8

1932-1940

135

62

197

1,498

13.2

1942-1950

110

57

167

1,150

14.5

1952-1960

91

67

158

1,225

12.9

1962-1970

123

111

234

1,299

18.0

1972-1980

126

128

254

1,344

18.9

1982-1990

101

135

236

1,307

18.1

1992-2000

90

146

236

1,091

21.6

2002-2010

108

169

277

1,089

25.4

Total

1,510

944

2,454

16,235

15.1

Data reflects totals based on November election day results. Data compiled by Smart Politics.

Those taking the long view of history know that New York and California have not always been Democratic-friendly states, with the Democrats being in the minority of each state's delegation during several stretches over the past 160 years.

Overall, Democrats have won only 50.2 percent of general election New York U.S. House contests since 1850 (1,510 out of 3,009 races) and 52.9 percent in California (944 of 1,782).

The trend, however, has been sliding upwards over the past 50 years.

Democrats have represented a majority of New York's U.S. House delegation in every election cycle since 1964 and in California since 1958.

The percentage of New York seats in the Democratic column after the 2010 election (69.0 percent) decreased from its all-time high after 2008 (89.7 percent), but is still the 7th largest since 1850 (behind 2006, 79.3 percent; 1912, 72.1 percent; 1976, 71.8 percent, 1978, 69.2 percent, and 1974, 69.2 percent).

The 64.2 percent of Democratic seats in the California delegation is tied for the 7th highest since the state became a 7-member delegation in the 1890s, behind 1936 (75.0 percent), 1944 (69.6 percent), 1976 (67.4 percent), 1962 (65.8 percent), 1974 (65.1 percent), 1934 (65.0 percent) and tied with 2004, 2006, and 2008.

Percentage of New York and California Delegations of All Democrats in U.S. House by Election Cycle, 1850-2010

Year

NY

CA

Total

Democrats

%

2010

20

34

54

193**

28.1

2008

26

34

60

257

23.3

2006

23

34

57

233

24.5

2004

20

34

54

202

26.7

2002

19

33

52

205

25.4

2000

19

32

51

212

24.1

1998

18

28

46

211

21.8

1996

18

29

47

206

22.8

1994

17

27

44

204

21.6

1992

18

30

48

258

18.6

1990

21

26

47

267

17.6

1988

21

27

48

260

18.5

1986

20

27

47

258

18.2

1984

19

27

46

253

18.2

1982

20

28

48

269

17.8

1980

22

22

44

242

18.2

1978

27

26

53

277

19.1

1976

28

29

57

292

19.5

1974

27

28

55

291

18.9

1972

22

23

45

242

18.6

1970

24

21

45

255

17.6

1968

26

21

47

243

19.3

1966

26

21

47

247

19.0

1964

27

23

50

295

16.9

1962

20

25

45

259

17.4

1960

22

16

38

263

14.4

1958

19

16

35

283

12.4

1956

17

13

30

234

12.8

1954

17

11

28

232

12.1

1952

16

11

27

213

12.7

1950

23

10

33

235

14.0

1948

24

10

34

263

12.9

1946

17

9

26

188

13.8

1944

23

16

39

242

16.1

1942

23

12

35

222

15.8

1940

25

11

36

267

13.5

1938

25

12

37

262

14.1

1936

27

15

42

334

12.6

1934

29

13

42

322

13.0

1932

29

11

40

313

12.8

1930

23

1

24

216

11.1

1928

23

1

24

164

14.6

1926

25

1

26

194

13.4

1924

22

2

24

183

13.1

1922

23

2

25

207

12.1

1920

9

2

11

131

8.4

1918

19

4

23

192

12.0

1916

16

4

20

214

9.3

1914

18

3

21

230

9.1

1912

31

3

34

291

11.7

1910

21

1

22

230

9.6

1908

12

0

12

172

7.0

1906

12

0

12

167

7.2

1904

11

0

11

135

8.1

1902

16

3

19

176

10.8

1900

13

0

13

151

8.6

1898

18

1

19

161

11.8

1896

6

2

8

124

6.5

1894

5*

1

6

93

6.5

1892

20

3

23

218

10.6

1890

23

2

25

238

10.5

1888

16

2

18

152

11.8

1886

15

2

17

167

10.2

1884

17

1

18

182

9.9

1882

21

6

27

196

13.8

1880

12*

2

14

128

10.9

1878

8

1

9

141

6.4

1876

16

1

17

155

11.0

1874

16

3

19

182

10.4

1872

9

1

10

88

11.4

1870

16

0

16

104

15.4

1868

12*

2

14

67

20.9

1866

10

2

12

47

25.5

1864

10*

0

10

38

26.3

1862

17

0

17

72

23.6

1860

9

0

9

44

20.5

1858

3

2

5

83

6.0

1856

12

2

14

132

10.6

1854

5

2

7

83

8.4

1852

20

2

22

157

14.0

1850

16

2

18

127

14.2

Total

1,510

944

2,454

16,235

15.1

Data reflects totals based on November election day results, except (*) adjusts for contested elections in which a new winner was selected. ** Projected totals. Data compiled by Smart Politics.

Nearly 20% of *all* Congressional seats are from CA and NY. Comprising 28% of the Democratic caucus isn't that big a deal.

More significant is that the people of CA and NY are represented by just 4 US Senators --but are home to more Americans than the *combined* populations of Utah, Alaska, Kentucky, Idaho, Oklahoma, Nebraska, North Dakota, South Dakota, Maine, Nevada, and Kansas.

> Nearly 20% of *all* Congressional seats are from CA and NY.
> Comprising 28% of the Democratic caucus isn't that big a
> deal.

That is pointed out in the report. But you're missing these key points (listed in the report):

1) The number of delegates from each of the two states has varied greatly across the decades, but has held relatively flat cumulatively since 1962. Between 1962 and 2010 New York and California have accounted for between 18.2 percent and 19.1 percent of all U.S. House seats.

2) However, there has been a 61.5 percent increase in the percentage of Californians and New Yorkers in the House Democratic caucus from the 1962 election (17.4 percent) to 2010 (28.1 percent).

Collin Peterson remarked last month that he is leaning to run for reelection to Minnesota's 7th Congressional District in 2016. If he does and is victorious, he will creep even closer to the top of the list of the longest-serving U.S. Representatives in Minnesota history. The DFL congressman is only the sixth Minnesotan to win at least 13 terms to the U.S. House of the 135 elected to the chamber in state history. Peterson trails 18-term DFLer Jim Oberstar (1975-2011), 16-term Republicans Harold Knutson (1917-1949) and August Andresen (1925-1933; 1935-1958), and 14-term DFLers Martin Sabo (1979-2007) and John Blatnik (1947-1974). Andresen died in office, Sabo and Blatnik retired, and Knutson and Oberstar were defeated at the ballot box in 1948 and 2010 respectively. At 70 years, 7 months, 11 days through Monday, Peterson is currently the ninth oldest Gopher State U.S. Representative in history. DFLer Rick Nolan of the 8th CD is the seventh oldest at 71 years, 1 month, 23 days.

Congressman Nick Rahall's failed bid for a 20th term in West Virginia this cycle, combined with a narrow loss by Nick Casey to Alex Mooney in Shelley Moore Capito's open seat, means that West Virginia Democrats will be shut out of the state's U.S. House delegation for the first time in over 90 years. The Republican sweep by two-term incumbent David McKinley in the 1st CD, Mooney in the 2nd, and Evan Jenkins over Rahall in the 3rd marks the first time the GOP has held all seats in the chamber from West Virginia since the Election of 1920. During the 67th Congress (1921-1923) all six seats from the state were controlled by the GOP. Since the Election of 1922, Democrats have won 76 percent of all U.S. House elections in the Mountain State - capturing 172 seats compared to 54 for the GOP.