Democrats targeting GOP seats

BY BRENDAN FARRINGTONTHE ASSOCIATED PRESS

Monday

Jun 25, 2007 at 12:01 AMJun 25, 2007 at 6:30 AM

TALLAHASSEE - Need proof that Democrats are feeling like winners in Florida these days? Just listen to them talk about their chances of gaining more ground in Congress during the 2008 election.
Democrats have set their sights on five incumbent Republican congressmen. Not that long ago, that would have been a laughable goal. This year, though, it's simply setting ambitions high with an expectation of finding victory somewhere.
After picking up two Republican seats last year during a national wave that saw Democrats rolling into power in the House and Senate, Democrats are hoping to build on their success by targeting Republicans they think are vulnerable. Republicans, meanwhile, want to win back what they lost and maintain what they have.
It makes Florida a pivotal state in what both parties see as a critical election that will also pick the next president, and one that could potentially see seven congressional incumbents in heated battles to keep their seats.
"There are a lot of opportunities in Florida," said Rep. Chris Van Hollen of Maryland, who chairs the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee. "Flashback and look at the last election - a lot of people thought we didn't have a lot of pickup opportunities in Florida and yet we picked up two big ones and came close elsewhere. That momentum has only grown."
For Democrats, the targets are Reps. Vern Buchanan, Ric Keller, Dave Weldon, Tom Feeney and C.W. "Bill" Young.
Here's the rationale for each:
*Buchanan barely won his District 13 seat in the Sarasota area after spending more than $5 million of his own money on the race. He won by 369 votes. His opponent, Christine Jennings, believes touch-screen voting machines lost thousands of ballots and that she would have won if all votes had been counted.
*Keller promised to leave office after eight years, then decided after the last election to break his vow. He'll have to use resources in a primary before facing a Democratic opponent. Democrats see signs the District 8 seat that includes the Orlando area could favor one of their candidates, and they'll make a case that Keller's voting record doesn't reflect the interests of his constituents.
*Weldon underperformed at the polls last year when he was re-elected in District 15, which represents the Atlantic coast from Vero Beach north to Cape Canaveral. He was re-elected with 56 percent of the vote, but against a weak Democratic candidate who spent far less money. A stronger, better-financed candidate could be a challenge.
*Feeney's District 24, which stretches from the area north and east of Orlando to Brevard and Volusia counties' coastline, would normally be considered safely his. But Feeney's golf trip to Scotland with disgraced lobbyist Jack Abramoff could taint the congressman as Democrats continue to make ethics an issue in 2008.
*Young's District 10 seat, which represents Pinellas County, is slightly Republican, but trends show the large independent voting bloc favors Democratic candidates. Young also hasn't been seriously tested in years.
Except for Young, who has served since 1971 and is popular in the district, Democrats' reasoning isn't unrealistic, said University of South Florida political science professor Darryl Paulson. Democrats' only hope of taking the Young seat is if the 76-year-old congressman retires, he said.
While it's always a challenge to knock off an incumbent, if Democrats target the right districts, find the right candidates and raise money, they could be competitive. The fact that they gained ground in Congress and the state Legislature will help them raise money and recruit quality candidates because the party is no longer considered to be a loser, said Paulson, who is a Republican.
"The Democratic Party in Florida was a joke for much of the 1990s. The Democrats were in a downward spiral," Paulson said. "They couldn't seem to find their way. They've found their way out of the political wilderness in Florida and they have a game plan."
Jennings is expected to challenge Buchanan again. Mike Smith, a former prosecutor and current trial lawyer, is running for Keller's seat and Paul Rancatore, a commercial airline pilot and lieutenant colonel in the Air Force Reserve, is seeking Weldon's seat. The party is still recruiting candidates to oppose Young and Feeney.
But even if Democrats pick up a seat or two, it won't mean much unless they protect the two they gained.
Republican candidates are lining up to challenge Democratic Reps. Ron Klein, who defeated Republican incumbent Clay Shaw in District 22, and Tim Mahoney, who won the District 16 seat Republican Mark Foley gave up after he sent lurid messages to teenage male congressional pages. Both Democrats are from Palm Beach County.

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