Refractor is 1:300; Print run /500
Blue is 1:990; Print run /150
Gold is 1:2890; Print run /50
Orange is 1:5780; Print run /25

You can't go off of the odds flowing from one odd to the next based on print run.

No no ... I only stated that to show that the mistake wouldn't be in just one of stated odds being incorrect. In order to find the desired "2 missing autos", you'd have to increase all of the odds slightly (rather than just saying the Blue should be 1:44 for example).

It's relative to the flow of the odds / nothing more.

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7.26.2015 - "Seriously, Heston is having a much better season than any other rookie pitcher and it's not even close." COEFOR

This means exactly 10% of the autos are inserts. That is if the odds are correct based off of my numbers. 21.82 + 2.182 = 24.002

The math working there is a coincidence though. The Insert autos count as additional hits, and there is no way (knowing the numbering for all of the insert autos that don't have odds except for the black ice, which aren't chrome anyway) that the insert autos take up 2 a case.

This means exactly 10% of the autos are inserts. That is if the odds are correct based off of my numbers. 21.82 + 2.182 = 24.002

Yea, that's not gonna happen.

If we try to match last year's pack odds (which were missing one auto to get to 24) to this years, we'd have to reduce the odds across the board by ~5%. That brings purple down to about 1:1025 and the case run down to 4,500.

These odds are perfect in situations, flawed in others ... it sounds like Topps to a T!

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7.26.2015 - "Seriously, Heston is having a much better season than any other rookie pitcher and it's not even close." COEFOR

Normally I would agree with you, as I am in the "wait and see" group of thinking too. The only thing that would make some sense at this point is Black refractor autos. If the case, that would add (if they fall at the same rate as the different between blues and blacks in the non-auto portion) about .75 per case. That makes it around 22.5 autos per case, and still doesn't match.

I just feel like one of the odds is wrong. It's not like they all add up to 23.85 or something and its a little off, its 1.5 per case off.

i think there are black refractor autos of RCs

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I still have 300 plus of 75 percent of the players base papers from 13 draft, ask me about cheap lots.

The Non-Auto odds make no sense at all. You can't triple the odds on those without adjusting elsewhere. Hobby/Retail would have to be SIGNIFICANTLY better than previous years to account for this difference.

The AUTO odds don't look bad if you can assume that the two missing autos are inserts or parallels that we don't yet know about. They are close enough to last year's odds to make sense, but not without a key component being added to make up for the 2 missing autos.

If these Jumbo odds are in fact correct, then Hobby will have to be absolutely loaded this year.

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So, better odds than 2011, worse odds than 2012, but still a lot of unanswered questions and things that don't make sense.

And it seems like the auto CL for 2013 is 7 more than 2011, 35 to 42 if I have my numbers correct, an increase of 20%.

So an increase in auto CL of what looks like 20% causes prospect refractors to go from 1:6 (2011) to 1:21 (2013)? Something obviously doesn't add up, and it could certainly be my math at 2AM, so someone please correct me

Wow, I just got up and see that I missed a lot last night. I am not sure what to think. I hope those odds are not correct, but regardless I will be busting all of my cases. Very interested to see how this unfolds.

And it seems like the auto CL for 2013 is 7 more than 2011, 35 to 42 if I have my numbers correct, an increase of 20%.

So an increase in auto CL of what looks like 20% causes prospect refractors to go from 1:6 (2011) to 1:21 (2013)? Something obviously doesn't add up, and it could certainly be my math at 2AM, so someone please correct me

No, your math IS correct. That's the problem. All of the auto odds are suggesting a 20-25% overall increase in production this year, yet the NON-AUTO odds are suggesting a 250%+ increase.

Again, either these odds are wrong, or 66% of the NON-AUTO parallels were moved to Hobby/Retail. The latter would make Hobby a steal at current prices so I'm not buying that explanation either.

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They may be printing conservative odds as well to keep us from getting our panties in a wad. Maybe they think it is better to print purple autograph odds at 1:1080, and us be pleasantly surprised when they fall every 1:800 or so. Just a thought.

No, your math IS correct. That's the problem. All of the auto odds are suggesting a 20-25% overall increase in production this year, yet the NON-AUTO odds are suggesting a 250%+ increase.

Again, either these odds are wrong, or 66% of the NON-AUTO parallels were moved to Hobby/Retail. The latter would make Hobby a steal at current prices so I'm not buying that explanation either.

This could be the truth though. Even though Bowman draft jumbo cases were limited the color in them sucked. They could be doing the same seeding with Bowman, making the jumbo non auto color suck.

On another note comparing the jumbo odds from 2011 (which is virtually the same, auto odds) and the awsomeness of the checklist list this year I don't see any reason for people to be worried about Bowman or jumbos.