September 15, 2005

USGS destroys L.A.

Possibly of morbid interest to California readers: Results of a USGS simulation of The Big One hitting Los Angeles. (Via Fark.)

-The estimated fatalities could range from 3,000 to 18,000, with an average of 7,600.

-The total injuries could range from 56,000 to 268,000, with an average of about 120,000.

-The number of displaced households ranged from 142,000 to 735,000, with an average of 274,000.

But did they account for completely incompetent FEMA administrators? Also, I wonder if the equivalent study has been done for San Francisco. Or perhaps the Hayward fault, which runs under through the East Bay and directly under the Berkeley campus...
Tags: California, Science

Comments

One of my early thoughts (obviously shared by many others) with this whole business has been that So. California's long-discussed 'big one' could certainly bring about the same kind of stuff, given (in my case) that if the impact were comparable, it would be _my_ hometown destroyed (whether or not I'm actually living there at the time). As usual, I'm not optimistic about our preparedness.

The Hayward Fault is CREEPING! Creeping, I tell you. All this stuff about how a major event on the Hayward fault could sever various important water pipelines, etc. is true, but the Hayfault fault doesn't have a record of those type of large events. IT just moves very slowly and constantly.

Just as a side note, this isn't introductory thermo, so I expect we have to assume something *slightly* more detailed than a flat probability distribution over speculated outcomes. I mean come on, enough meaningless statistics!

Then again, I haven't read the article, so there's a fairly good chance (especially since it's me) that I'm talking out of my ass.

Lemming: I did go looking for more technical information on the USGS site, but didn't find it at a cursory glance. So I don't know whether the averages are meaningful or just something they gave the press.

There are plenty of simulations of quake damage in the Bay Area. Every year, there are huge fights at SSA about it. the problem is that the geometry and relationship between the SA and Hayward and a buncha littler faults are poorly understood.

Whereas, in LA, the damage is actually from the sedimentary deposits in the LA basin shaking due to a huge shock on the relatively simple SA down there.