Monthly Archives: January 2015

Last weekend was one of the most disapointing of the season, with only Shrewsbury getting me any kind of return. In my defence, when Chelsea, Man City, Spurs all lose to lesser teams you know its not your week! We will put that behind us though and aim to get back to winning ways this week.

I have stuck with 4 teams this week: 2 singles, a four fold and a lucky 15. I fancy all 4 teams this week but especially the 2 singles. I also have 1 pick from each league!

In the Premier League I have gone for Stoke as the first bet of my four. Stoke (7/10) face a QPR team who have lost every away game in the Premier League this season. Stoke are ever dependable at home and with that away record against them, I cant see anything other than a Stoke home win.

In the Championship I almost opted for Forest to beat Millwall as 3/4 wasn't bad odds considering how poor Millwall have been of late. However, Forest are still on a very poor run of form themselves so I have left this for now. At 4/5 Ipswich, however, is an even better bet. Before their last home game Ipswich had won their previous 5 at Portman Road in the league. They face Wigan tomorrow, a team who has lost 5/6 away games. This is my first single of the day and second of the 4 bets.

Ipswich to beat Wigan £50 single @ 4/5 with BetVictor

My third bet of the day comes with last weeks giant Killers Bradford. They entertain Colchester tomorrow and at 10/11 I fancy them to take their confidence from the cup into this game. Bradfords home form isn't great, but Colchester are in the relegation zone and I cant see them troubling Bradford tomorrow.

My final bet of the day comes with Wycombe. Wycombe are top of league 2 and have an unbeaten run of 12 games to maintain, including winning their last 2 at home. They face a Portsmouth team who have won 1 game away all season and at 10/11 this is my second single of the day and the final piece of the 4-fold and lucky 15.

Wycombe to beat Portsmouth £50 single @ 10/11 William Hill

£20 4-fold on Stoke, Ipswich, Bradford and Wycombe @ 10.62 with William Hill

What a weekend last weekend turned out to be. Sadly not in betting terms and profit, but more in terms of upsets. Some crazy odds on the weekend games and bookies must have been laughing. Some of the long odds I wouldn't have taken pre-kick off even with a zero on the end of them. Maybe the gap is shortening between The Premier League and the leagues below. It certainly seems very disproportionate considering the difference in wages. I agree with Jose when he says it is a disgrace.

Another let down on the NAP front making 13 from 25. Yet another loss, this time £67.50. Ray reckons it's all about the in-play. I reckon it's all about making profit in the long term. 2 single wins out of 7 is just not good enough, despite both games being odds against. We have had to dust ourselves down before, and we will have to do it again, but speculate to accumulate. WBA came good but Tranmere could only draw, and by the sounds of things they were lucky to get that. Liverpool's inconsistent season continues and they could only muster up a nil nil draw against Bolton.

Let's see if we can do better this weekend…..

The Premier League – Palace at even money (BetFred) to beat The Premier League's worst from team, Everton, seems a very good price and worth a consideration. I will certainly be avoiding Liverpool at home to West Ham at 4/6 (BoyleSports) as it offers no value at all, despite the fact they have lost only once in 17 games (Man Utd 3-0) in 90mins. WBA at home to beat Spurs seems promising at a fantastic price of 21/10 (Ladbrokes), maybe I am getting sucked in by the Pulis factor again, although it worked last week. I think the price is too good to refuse. The late kick off sees Chelsea hosting Man City, with both teams having a point to prove after losingin the FA Cup. In the interim Chelsea have managed to reach the final of the Capital One Cup and they will have their tails up. Man City will fall even further behind if they don't produce a victory, but recent games suggest they haven't got enough in their locker. I can't see them getting anything from the game and Chelsea at 19/20 (Bet365) is well worth a nibble but tread with some caution due to Costa's 3 match suspension.

The Championship – Birmingham Vs Norwich is another game that offers good value for the home team. You can get 5/2 (Ladbrokes) and I feel this is very high. Birmingham seem revitalised and have lost only 1 in 7 (against Derby), drawing their last two makes it slightly cautious though. Also Birmingham haven't won any of their last 7 against Norwich so I guess it's the proverbial bogey team. Ipswich NAP will be looking to bounce back from their defeat to Brighton last weekend. They are 4/5 (Stan James) at home to Wigan, who are languishing near the foot of the table. Ipswich have won 5 out of their last 6 home games, with their only home defeat coming against Derby. I can certainly see them extended that record to 6 from 7. I would have expected Ipswich to be 4/6 so I consider the price good value despite being odds on.

League One – A very tough set of fixtures in League One this week. A good indicator of this is looking at the prices of the home teams. There are very few games that see home teams as odds on and the two lowest priced teams are MK Dons and Preston, who are both away.

League Two – This is the league which will see most of the action and value this weekend. Burton are 7/5 (Stan James) at home to beatBury. Bury do have a tendency to perform better against the higher placed teams though and Burton have drawn their last 2. Both teams are highly placed and in contention for promotion. It is not one to go crazy on but it is worth a consideration. Southend 4/5 (BetFred) Vs York, Southend are on fire and I see no reason to suggest why their run won't continue. York are a tricky team to break down though and I don't see it being a walk over, a goal might be enough for Southend or they may nick it by two. Stevenage 5/4 (Stan James)are at home to Oxford and I fancy them to bounce back from their recent defeat to Shrewsbury. I can see no other result here than a Stevenage victory, this game was close to being my NAP. Oxford have only won one in their last six and I can see that statistic becoming one in seven. The final games sees Wycombe Vs Portsmouth. Despite being top they have only won 2 of their last 7 games with 5 draws. They don't win by more than one goal very often but the poor form of an 18th placed Portsmouth make the 37/40 (BetVictor) price a good one. Portsmouth have lost 5 and drawn 3 in their last 8. The lack of comfortable victories, despite being top, puts me off having a larger bet on Wycombe, but they are certainly worth wager.

Far more teams who I like the look of this week, The past two weeks have been sparse. It is now a case of picking the right bets and values to maximise profit……..

MY BETS

Ipswich Vs Brighton – £100 Ipswich 4/5 Stan James

Southend Vs York – £50 Southend 4/5 BetFred

Stevenage Vs Oxford – £75 Stevenage 5/4 Stan James

Doubles and Trebles on the above 4 bets at £25 each (7.78 for the treble with Hills)

I will have a cheeky punt on shooting for the moon too and having 7 of the 9 highlighted teams above (betting without Chelsea and Birmingham). It is 271.89 for the 7 fold with William Hill. I will perm the bet as 21 fivefolds, 7 sixfolds and 1 sevenfold. 29 bets at £2.50 each.

I am confident about the singles, doubles and trebles this week and see it as the best week for the punter in a while.

We are now up to over £1800 in profit after a small profit from last weeks games. We landed another 3/4 wins, with Bradford a major let down. Yeovil only won their second home game all season to deny us the jackpot. Lets see if we can nail it this week.

I have gone for the same format again this week with 4 teams; 2 singles, a 4-fold and a lucky 15. In the absence of the Premier League games, we start with the FA cup. Tottenham entertain Leicester tomorrow at The Lane on the back of a great recent run of form. They have only lost 1 in their last 10 and have won 5/6 at home. Leicester have improved slightly in the last few games but still have but still have a 73% loss ratio away from home. I can only see 1 winner in this and at 8/11 Tottenham are my first single of the day.

Tottenham Hotspur to beat Leicester City £50 win 8/11 with Betvictor

In The Championship there are less games than normal and only 1 game I fancy. Norwich have turned the corner since their new manager took over and have had some good results over top teams in recent weeks. They have won their last 3 at home, and beat Bournemouth away 2 weeks a go. They face a Brentford side who will soon hit the reality that they were overachieving in the first half of the season. They have an average squad and Norwich will have too much for them tomorrow. They will be the second leg of tomorrows 4-fold and Lucky 15.

There are no games I fancy in League 1, so my final 2 games are in League 2. The first is the second single of the day and is Shrewsbury Town. The shrews face a Stevenage team who although have picked up in recent weeks are 16th in the away form table for the season, winning 2/8 away games. Shrewsbury however have a great home record. They have the best home record in the division, having last been defeated 14 games a go. They are also 8/11, which seems to be a theme for these matches-hopefully a lucky 1! The final bet of the weekend is Tranmere. They have been at the lower end of the table this season but since changing manager have been unbeaten in the last 4 home games, winning 3. This on its own isn't amazing, however we have to take into account who they are playing. Here it becomes even more valuable. They play the bottom team in English football in Hartlepool. Hartlepool have a 77% loss ratio away from home, and this will be another. Tranmere can be had at 5/6, which is possibly the best value of the 4.

A £212.50 loss last weekend. I did call it as being the toughest week so far. With the wonderful world of hindsight, lowered stakes would have been advisable. We can't win every week and profit is still just short of £2450. 13 from 24 NAP's and my New Year's Resolution has now been broken, that can go on the scrap heap along with the diets and quitting smoking Resolutions that have undoubtedly.

I am keeping a close eye on CBB and hope that Calum continues to do well. I will be a happy punter if any of the front runners win except Katie Hopkins.

This weekends football tips….

The Championship – With only 4 matches taking place it doesn't give much hope for bets on Saturday. There is nothing that I like the look of and the prices are poor.

League One – Slim pickings in League One too. 7 matches to go at but whilst the prices are OK they are difficult games to tackle.

League Two – It's nearly a full fixture list in League Two with only one game taking a back seat due to cup commitments. The lower position teams all seem to be at home, Shrewsbury are the only team in the top 7 at home. They are at home to Stevenage who are also in the top 7 so I won't be entertaining this game. Tranmere NAP 17/20 (SkyBet) is the first bet for me this week. It sees 22nd against 24th and Tranmere have lost 1 in 7 in the league and Hartlepool have won 1 in 10. This is the only league game that I can find this week. After having my fingers burnt last week I am not going to be that man in a dark room, looking for a black cat that isn't there. Whilst the blog might not be as meaty as other weeks, our bank balances will be.

The FA Cup – Birmingham Vs WBA is a tie that sees Premier opposition against a struggling Championship side. I think I may be pulled in by the Pulis factor but I think this is enough reason to back WBA at odd of 21/20 (BoyleSports). One to consider is Liverpool at home to Bolton, the WDW is far too short but HT FT offers some value at 20/23 (BoyleSports). 25th January has 5 of the 6 teams odds against. This again suggests a difficulty in picking winners as only Arsenal are odds on.

I almost feel apologetic in the shortness of the blog this week. However, I have spent the same amount of time trawling for some winners (if not longer). Sometimes the weeks just happen like this where we can't find games. Last week I managed to get 4 games (at a push) and this week even less. I don't see an issue in some weeks picking 3 games and another picking 9. It's all about value.

My Bets

Tranmere Vs Hartlepool – Tranmere £100 at 17/20 (SkyBet)

Birmingham Vs WBA – WBA £75 at 21/20 (BoyleSports)

Liverpool Vs Bolton – Liverpool HT FT £50 at 20/23 (BoyleSports)

Double of Tranmere and WBA 3.7 at BoyleSports and Treble 6.9 at BoyleSports this week but I won't be having either. I am just hoping to tick over a tidy profit on the singles.

Good Luck and all the best, tread even more carefully than last week………………