Obamacare and California — little hope

U-T San Diego Editorial Board

The Legislature last weekend endorsed a major part of the state’s role in implementing President Obama’s health care reform law, opting to expand Medicaid to 1.4 million poor Californians. The only hope now — slimmer than slim — is that Gov. Jerry Brown will miraculously see the light and reverse the state’s participation in this disaster-in-waiting known as Obamacare.

The expansion of Medicaid, called Medi-Cal in California, is a centerpiece for achieving Obama’s goal to dramatically reduce the number of Americans who have no health insurance. But the cost to states of expanding the program is potentially enormous. That’s a big reason why a significant number of states have opted not to participate in the expansion.

As an inducement to states, the law requires the federal government to pay the full cost expanding Medicaid for the first three years. But the federal share drops to 90 percent in 2020 and California’s legislative analyst has estimated that, depending on the number of new enrollees in Medi-Cal, the cost to California at that time could be as much as $1.3 billion a year.

As the Jan. 1 date for full implementation of Obamacare approaches, its true costs, for states and for individuals, are sinking in. Maybe it will sink in with Gov. Brown that California can’t afford it. We can hope, but don’t bet on it.