According to the report on investments by UN Conference on Trade and Development published in October 2008, in 2007 Russia held the ninth place in the world by the volume ЭКОНОМИКО-ПОЛИТИЧЕСКАЯ СИТУАЦИЯ В РОССИИ ЭКОНОМИКО-ПОЛИТИЧЕСКАЯ СИТУАЦИЯ В РОССИИ RUSSIAN ECONOMY: TRENDS AND PERSPECTIVES of direct investments attracted (in 2006 – 10th, in 2005 – 15th). The same as in the previous year Russia is the second among the developing countries, the first place being held by China (in 2005 – 3rd place).

In December international Rating Agency S&P lowered Russia’s sovereign rating from ВВВ+ to ВВВ, the forecast for the rating being negative. In the opinion of the agency, “the lowering of ratings reflects the risks connected with the sharp decrease in foreign currency reserves and other investment flows that result in the increase of the costs and difficulties arising in saturation of the country with the external financing”. At the beginning of February 2009 the international rating agency Filch also lowered the long-term rating of Russia from ВВВ+ to ВВВ, the forecast being negative. Moody’s agency did not follow the example of S&P and Filch lowering the Russia’s rating, instead it confirmed the positive forecast for the Russian federation concerning its debt liabilities and deposits (in June 2008 Moody’s agency increased the Russia’s rating from Ваа2 to Ваа1, the forecast being positive).

НАЗВАНИЕ РАЗДЕЛА НАЗВАНИЕ РАЗДЕЛА НАЗВАНИЕ РАЗДЕЛА НАЗВАНИЕ THE REAL ESTATE MARKET IN RF РАЗДЕЛА THE REAL ESTATE MARKET IN RF G.Zadonsky The averaged 2008 data on the real estate market depict an optimistic picture in the conditions of the crisis. However, the 4th quarter of 2008 and the 1st quarter of 2009 testify to a deep slump on the marke., with volumes of overdue mortgage debts being on the rise.

The volume of mortgage credits disbursed in 2008 (Rb. 633.812bn) is at 18% greater than that of 2007 (537.463bn). But this excess resulted from a vigorous rise in crediting in the first two quarters of 2008. In the 3rd quarter, the growth rate declined, while in the 4th quarter, the volume of mortgage loans accounted just for a half of the one reported by results of the 4th quarter of 2007. In the 4th quarter of 2008, as many as 29 regions saw volumes of mortgage lending tumbled at more than 60% vs. the preceding quarter, while in another 15 regions the 2008 volume of mortgage lending proved to be less than in 2007.

According to the CBR, in January 2009, credit organizations extended mortgage loans worth a total of Rb. 6.634bn., or at least thrice as low vs. the respective figure a year ago.

So, the decline in the mortgage lending sector, which had gained its momentum in the 4th quarter 2008, has continued in 2009, too. As of January 1, 2009, the aggregate indebtedness on extended mortgage credits accounted for Rb. 991.5bn, or 2.4% of the 2008 GDP.

According to the CBR, the average weighted interest rate on Rb.-denominated mortgage loans has been on the rise since the 2nd quarter 2008, when it was at the level of 12.5%, and ultimately reached 14.1% in January. The average weighted interest rate on mortgage loans denominated in foreign exchange exhibited a similar behavior – it soared from 10.8% up to 12.5% in January 2009. By mid-March the average weighted offer rates by mortgage credits calculated by 25 banks’ programs (calculations and monitoring – by Creditmart) had accounted for: the fixed rate by Rb.-denominated credits – 18.79%, the fixed rate by USD-denominated credits – 15.16%; the floating rate by Rb.-denominated credits slid slightly to 29.67%, while the one by USDdenominated credits increased to 11.19%.

The 2008 average weighted term by both Rb.- and forex-denominated mortgage credits was on the rise and as of January 1, 2009, made up 219.and 210.5 months, respectively. But Volume of loans distributed to private individuals to buy housing in January 2009, Dynamics of credit disbursement to private individuals over the quarter (in the right scale) it plunged to 211.and 178.1 months, Fig. 1. Dynamic of credit disbursement to private individuals over the quarter respectively.

Rb. bn.

1st Q 1st Q 1st Q 1st Q 4th Q 4th Q 4th Q 3rd Q 3rd Q 3rd Q 3rd Q 4nd Q 2nd Q 2nd Q 2nd Q 2nd Q ЭКОНОМИКО-ПОЛИТИЧЕСКАЯ СИТУАЦИЯ В РОССИИ ЭКОНОМИКО-ПОЛИТИЧЕСКАЯ СИТУАЦИЯ В РОССИИ RUSSIAN ECONOMY: TRENDS AND PERSPECTIVES The overall slump in the crediting sector, a substantial depreciation of the Rb. and a number of banks suspending their forex-denominated crediting programs gave rise to expectations of an advancing contraction in the volume of disbursed forex-denominated credits. But, according to the CBR, despite an additional foreign exchange exposure, the proportion of forex-denominated mortgage credits in the overall volume of credits disbursed in the 4th quarter of 2008 was greater than in the first three ones and accounted for 14.8% for the year of 2008. In 2007, the respective figure was 21.3%.

Against the background of declining volumes of disbursed mortgage loans, large banks continued to concentrate the housing crediting in their hands. As of the early-2009, the Top 20 largest banks controlled 67% of the mortgage debts (equivalent of Rb. 653bn.), while another 321bn was on balance sheets of medium- and small-sized banks, including regional ones.

Experts of the Agency for Mortgage Crediting (AMC) believe that should the current conditions of functioning of the market remain as they are, the 2009 volume of disbursement of mortgage credits should not exceed Rb. 176bn. At that juncture it is going to be the three largest public banks – namely, Sberbank, VTB-24, Gasprombank (including the GPB-mortgage) and a few foreign banks’ daughter banks that will continue to operate on the market, as they would still enjoy an access to a cheaper funding. In February 2009, VTB disbursed over Rb. 15 bn. in credits to private individuals, of which over 1bn fell on mortgage lending. Meanwhile, in the first half 2008, the Bank’s monthly volume of disbursement/refinancing of mortgage credits accounted for a. Rb. 3-4bn.

Note: Series 1(Rb.) and series 2 (foreign currency) were built basing on the CBR data as the overdue debts (the sum of the fraction of the annuity payment equaling the size of the principal debt that has not been paid within the term stipulated in the credit agreement) to the debt on disbursed credits (the balance of the principal debt (BPD)) ratio.

Series 3 was built basing on the AMC data (the IAS methodology) as correlation between the value of the balance of the principal debt by mortgages of the accompanied portfolio that have a delay in payment in one or more periods of payment (over 30 days) and the balance of the principal debt by mortgages of the accompanied portfolio. By the AMC’s assessments, the proportion of overdue debts by mortgage credits on banks’ balance sheets calculated by an analogous methodology accounts for not less than 12%.

According to the 9,00% CBR data, levels of overdue debts 8,00% by Rb.- and forex7,00% denominated 6,00% mortgage credits in the first half 5,00% were practically even.

4,00% But as of February 3,00% 1, 2009, the former accounted for 0.78%, 2,00% while the latter – 1,00% for 2.09%, and they 0,00% combined made up jan08 apr08 jun08 oct08 jan09 feb1.2%. In the 4th quarter, the value rubles foreign currency AMC of the overdue debt Source: the AMC and the CBR in Rb. equivalent doubled, while that Fig. 2. Level of overdue debts in forex equivalent НАЗВАНИЕ РАЗДЕЛА НАЗВАНИЕ РАЗДЕЛА НАЗВАНИЕ РАЗДЕЛА НАЗВАНИЕ THE REAL ESTATE MARKET IN RF РАЗДЕЛА nearly tripled compared with the previous quarter. The level of indebtedness by the AMC portfolio as of the early-2009, calculated by the CBR methodology, appeared practically equal to that by Rb.- denominated credits on the whole, that is, 0.74%.

According to the CBR, as of January 1, 2009, the volume of indebtedness by acquired by credit organizations foreclosures with respect to Rb.-denominated mortgage credits accounted for Rb. 75, 514m, while that for forex-denominated mortgage credits – Rb. 15, 279m.

As of March 13, 2009, the AMC had refinanced 141,412 mortgage credits worth a total of Rb. 110, 827bn.

Table January February 2009 2 005,64 2 929,2008 645,03 1 642,2007 3 391,72 3 931,In March, the Advisory Board of the AMC approved a business plan, according to which in 2009 the Agency should focus on helping “problematic” mortgage borrowers, rather than redeeming credits from banks. It is planned to spend Rb.51.6bn out of the allocated by the government 60bn. to restructure credits for borrowers who have lost a job. Participants in the market assume that this decision means that the government has agreed with the suspension of the mortgage lending in the country.

On March 16, PM V. Putin signed a Resolution in compliance with which as much as Rb.

26.3bn from the “maternity capital” can be spent on repayment of mortgage credits in 2009.

As of January 1, 2009, the size of the maternity capital accounted for Rb. 299,870. Some 86,000 families will be able to use the “maternity capital” to pay off their mortgage credits in 2009 already, and this figure makes up 10% of all the credits extended in Russia to date.

The government now discusses a program of provision banks with liquidity, so that they would be able to extend credits at a rate below 15% annualized and cheap mortgage loans to the citizens that would be ready to change their permanent residence in favor of a region where they might find a job.

The government anti-crisis package brought to public discussion in March suggests a possibility for “making a decision on inclusion in the composition of expenditures of sums paid to organizations as reimbursement for costs their employees have incurred in conjunction with payment of interest on loans (credits) on purchase and (or) building of a housing facility” for the sake of supporting demand for housing.

The Budgetary Committee of the Duma supported a bill that extends the practice of provision of a tax credit against purchase of housing. Since 2010 the tax rebate will be applied not only to the sum of costs incurred in conjunction with a purchase of a house, but to the price paid for the respective land lot as well. In addition, the borrower, who has refinanced the mortgage credit, shall no longer be deprived of the right for a rebate on interest payments payable to the bank. The government supported the bill.

In 2008, as many as 765,600 flats of the total area of 63.8m. sq. m. were put in operation.

The figure accounts for 104.5% to the prior year (in 2007, the total area of the housing placed in operation was 61.0m sq. m., or 120.6% to the 2006 level). Nevertheless, 18 Subjects of the Federation saw the volume of the local construction of housing decline compared with 2007.

In 2008, at the expense of their own or borrowed funds the population placed in operation 196,700 houses of the total area of 27.2m sq.m., or 104.3% relative to the 2007 figures. At the same time, the 2008 average nationwide proportion of the individual house building in the overall area of finished housing made up 42.7%. According to Rosstat, throughout the year of 2008, including the 4th quarter, the average nationwide prices for 1 sq.m. of living ЭКОНОМИКО-ПОЛИТИЧЕСКАЯ СИТУАЦИЯ В РОССИИ ЭКОНОМИКО-ПОЛИТИЧЕСКАЯ СИТУАЦИЯ В РОССИИ RUSSIAN ECONOMY: TRENDS AND PERSPECTIVES space were on the rise. In the 4th quarter, the price of 1 sq.m. of a standard apartment on the primary market was Rb. 49,138, while on the secondary one – 53,752. The fall in the real disposable income per capita in December 2008 has made it obvious that throughout the Russian Federation housing basically became less available.

By results of 2008, despite the rise in offer of housing in the city of Moscow, which was fueled by the declining demand, the housing prices have posted a notable growth compared with 2007. For example, according to “Savva” real estate agency, between December and December 2007 prices for apartments in the segment of finished housing rose at 14.6% in USD equivalent and at 31.4% in Rb. equivalent. According to experts of Panorama Estate, a Muscovite family with an average nationwide monthly income would be able to buy an averagely priced mortgaged apartment on the primary market, sobeit prices for real estate have plunged at 40-50%, while mortgage interest rates are 2.5-3%. As well, a necessary condition of availability of housing is the nationwide annual rate of its construction at the level of 1 sq.m. per capita.

Experts assume that the government is going to change the pricing system in the construction sector, citing Mr. I. Shubvalov, the First Deputy Chairman of the government’s declaration of the government being ready to trade its support to developers for a decrease in housing prices: “The government is ready to redeem practically finished housing in regions within the limit of 30 thousand roubles per square meter”, he was quoted as saying.