Mathematical Study Shows Real Conspiracies ‘Prone to Unravelling’

David Grimes, a mathematical physicist from Oxford University, has developed a model of how real conspiracies ‘unravel’ — that is, become public
— after a few years.

The speed at which they unravel is based, he demonstrates, on three variables:

the number of conspirators involved

the amount of time that has passed

the intrinsic probability of a conspiracy failing

He then applied his model to four conspiracy theories beloved of Above Top Secret, and calculated how long they would have taken to unravel if they
were actual and not imaginary conspiracies. The results he got were:

The belief that the Moon landing was faked: 3.7 years (that is, some time in early 1973!)

The belief that climate change is a fraud: 3.7-26.8 years (big margin of error there)

The belief that vaccines cause autism: 3.2-34.8 years (even bigger)

The belief that pharmaceutical companies have suppressed a cure for cancer: 3.2 years

None of this conclusively rules out the possibility that these are real conspiracies, but it certainly amounts to one more nail in the coffin.

Of course, it’s not as if any more nails are needed. But even the deadest of conspiracy theories somehow sustain zombie existences on the internet.
So perhaps Dr Grimes’s research is of some practical value and not just academic.

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