My earlier comment notwithstanding, I do think that the site would be better off if Inks left his position. (The fact that the village idiot has dropped in to express his support for him only confirms this.)

My earlier comment notwithstanding, I do think that the site would be better off if Inks left his position. (The fact that the village idiot has dropped in to express his support for him only confirms this.)

Even if Ryan brings a decent home state advantage, I think Obama will be sleeping soundly tonight.

not necessarily. I still don't get why people are thinking obama is a shoo in for reelection.

Nobody (except maybe Bandit and pBrower, but they don't count) is really considering the election a shoo in for Obama. However, it isn't inaccurate to say that Obama is favored, based on the historical precedent of the incumbent advantage, and his aggregate lead in national polls and in the swing states.

Its true Paul Ryan wasn't well known, but within a week I think everyone in WI (and the rest of the country) will know who he is. He will have some benefit in WI. This means that both campaigns will now start spending money there.

PPP had Obama +6 -> Obama +1 when Ryan was added to the ticket a month ago. Don't know if anyone else has publicly polled it. Nate Silver, for what it's worth, I think has said the VP tends to be 2 points in the home state? So, agreeing with this for now. I'm sure every pollster in the world will be doing a Wisconsin poll soon.