Analysis: Broadcast TV Kaput By 2030? Not So Fast

At the beginning of the Thanksgiving holiday, Netflix CEO
Reed Hastings went to Mexico City to discuss his company’s massive growth in
the region.

As he made his remarks, he uttered this prediction:
"The age of broadcast TV will probably last until 2030."

While it is certainly in Reed’s best interest to promote the
downfall of traditional television viewing, several things need to be reviewed.

Back in August, media analyst Rich Greenfield talked with TheWrap
about the future of network television.

“Everyone in the TV business should be reevaluating how important the broadcast
business is,” he said. “Either you should be exiting the TV business, or
driving reverse retrans fees dramatically higher.”

“Broadcast TV is really constrained in terms of what it can do
in terms of a creative standpoint,” Greenfield added.

But at the same time, the networks took home 47 Emmy Awards this year, compared
to 38 for basic cable, 25 for premium and 12 for OTT. The output is being
valued.

Over at TDG Research, Joel Espelien came to the conclusion
that “As an industry concept, 'broadcast’ is becoming less and less useful … it
is possible to have compelling launch events around new TV shows without
broadcasting (and even without live streaming). If the future of TV is indeed
an app, the future of broadcast TV is to serve as a launch pad for new TV
content.”

And at September’s IBC conference, Imagine Communications CEO Charlie Vogt prophesized
that “TV will move to IP sooner than people think … It's not five years away.
I'd say it will happen over the next two years. You can mark my word on that.”

Many of these industry examinations often focus on one factor though, and that’s
scripted programming. Two areas important to viewers seem to fall by the
wayside, and that’s news and sports content, both of which deserve
consideration in this debate.

Yesterday, Re/code’s Peter Kafka chimed in with a key reminder.

While streaming sports is indeed popular,
Kafka observed
that “U.S. sports fans are pretty much required to get pay TV,” as ESPN has
effectively monopolized the rights to the largest events.

For the overall pay/broadcast model to be obliterated by 2030, we’d first have
to see radical changes in ESPN’s behavior. Also worth noting is that years ago,
Monday Night Football shifted to ESPN from ABC.

As long as there is demand for live sports, as well as news, pay and broadcast TV
will likely remain as a primary part of the television industry. OTT and streaming
apps will certainly enhance the experience, though.