The early-state scramble: It's on!

Mitt Romney might skip Iowa. Sarah Palin appears to be conspicuously avoiding New Hampshire. Tim Pawlenty seems to be everywhere at once. As themes like these begin to take shape in 2012’s early-primary states, they reveal that the potential Republican presidential candidates are literally all over the map as they plot strategic paths to the nomination.

Whether it’s a matter of playing to their preferred ideological constituency, concentrating scarce resources or downplaying contests they don’t think they can win, the prospective candidates are already thinking through the necessary calculus for the first contests.

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Here’s how the most prominent candidates are approaching the influential early states.

IOWA

The Republican core of the first-in-the-nation state is dominated by social conservatives. That’s why candidates whose main appeal is to that constituency — such as Mike Huckabee, who won the 2008 Iowa caucuses on the strength of his former-preacher bona fides; Rick Santorum, the former Pennsylvania senator; or Palin — probably have to win or come close there or risk seeing their prospects plummet.

Candidates from neighboring states also are counting on Midwestern regional appeal to bolster them in Iowa, meaning the stakes are high for South Dakota Sen. John Thune, former Minnesota Gov. Pawlenty and Minnesota Rep. Michele Bachmann.

“Most of us here think it’s Huckabee’s at this point to lose if he gets in,” said Steffen Schmidt, a professor of political science at Iowa State University who studies the caucuses. But it’s far from clear whether Huckabee intends to run, and others are maneuvering in the meantime.

Pawlenty’s political action committee has staff in Iowa, and he is being advised by a number of top Iowa strategists; he made numerous trips to the state in 2010. Santorum announced Friday that he has hired two Iowa consultants — one of whom was Romney’s 2008 state political director.

The approaches of Palin and Thune have been more subtle, but both have reached out, under the radar, to potential Iowa supporters. Palin visited in September and December 2010, while Thune hasn’t set foot there since early 2009. Newt Gingrich has also visited the state recently.

Thune and Pawlenty both have said they hope to have a leg up in Iowa because they’re from neighboring states. And while her flirtation with a presidential run hasn’t been taken terribly seriously by the Beltway class, Bachmann was born in Iowa and was well-received on her recent visit to the Hawkeye State.

This time around, Romney hasn’t sought the support of many of his top 2008 Iowa backers. The former Massachusetts governor was burned last time when his expensive, well-organized effort in Iowa was swamped by the relatively shoestring campaign of Huckabee, who beat him by more than 9 points.

For Romney, Schmidt said, “the Mormon issue is an issue, even if it’s unspoken, and it’s not going to go away unless he converts to Pentecostal.”