Prediction: Grammy Awards hit random shuffle

Feb. 8, 2013

Updated Aug. 21, 2013 1:17 p.m.

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Six artists have six Grammy nominations apiece this year, including (clockwise from top left) Dan Auerbach of the Black Keys, breakout band fun., hip-hop mogul Jay-Z, R&B newcomer Frank Ocean, Brit folkies Mumford & Sons and rap innovator Kanye West. The Grammy Awards will be held Sunday at Staples Center and televised on CBS at 8 p.m. PHOTO ILLUSTRATION BY RICK HO

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Mumford & Sons, fronted by Marcus Mumford, are a strong contender for album of the year. DAVID HALL, FOR THE REGISTER

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Dan Auerbach is up for several awards as one-half of the Black Keys as well as producer of the year, non-classical. SIMONE JOYNER, GETTY IMAGES

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Breakout band fun., led by Nate Ruess, could win both record and song of the year for their generational anthem 'We Are Young.' KEVIN WINTER, GETTY IMAGES

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Singer Frank Ocean may still come away with three Grammys or more, but most of those wins will likely be in rap and R&B categories. KARL WALTER, GETTY IMAGES

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Jay-Z already has 14 Grammys but he's apt to add at least two or three more Sunday night. JASON KEMPIN, GETTY IMAGES

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Given how he could once again dominate in rap races, Kanye West might wind up the night's big winner at Sunday's Grammy Awards. MICHAEL BUCKNER, GETTY IMAGES

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Alabama Shakes, fronted by singer-guitarist Brittany Howard, is nominated for best new artist. Howard also will take part in a tribute to the Band's late drummer Levon Helm, alongside Elton John, Mavis Staples and Mumford & Sons. MARK METCALFE, GETTY IMAGES

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Kelly Clarkson's "Stronger (What Doesn't Kill You)" is nominated for record of the year and song of the year, and stands a strong chance of stealing one or the other or both from popular favorite 'We Are Young' by fun. CHRISTOPHER POLK, GETTY IMAGES

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Wally DeBacker, aka Gotye, has a record of the year nomination for 'Somebody That I Used to Know.' MARK METCALFE, GETTY IMAGES

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Country newcomer Hunter Hayes is nominated for best new artist and could swipe that prize from fun. or Frank Ocean. KEVIN WINTER, GETTY IMAGES

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Carly Rae Jepsen's inescapable single 'Call Me Maybe' is nominated for song of the year. MIKE COPPOLA, GETTY IMAGES

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R&B singer-songwriter Miguel is up for five Grammys, including song of the year for 'Adorn.' ISAAC BREKKEN, GETTY IMAGES

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Ed Sheeran is nominated for song of the year for 'The A Team.' He also will duet with Elton John during the Staples Center ceremony Sunday evening. DAVE KOTINSKY, GETTY IMAGES

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Taylor Swift is nominated for record of the year for 'We Are Never Ever Getting Back Together' and will open the Grammy telecast Sunday night. MIKE COPPOLA, GETTY IMAGES

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Jack White's solo release 'Blunderbuss' is nominated for album of the year. He's the only artist in this batch who has previously been up for that top prize, when the White Stripes' 'Elephant' was selected in 2004. DAVID WOLFF-PATRICK, GETTY IMAGES

Six artists have six Grammy nominations apiece this year, including (clockwise from top left) Dan Auerbach of the Black Keys, breakout band fun., hip-hop mogul Jay-Z, R&B newcomer Frank Ocean, Brit folkies Mumford & Sons and rap innovator Kanye West. The Grammy Awards will be held Sunday at Staples Center and televised on CBS at 8 p.m. PHOTO ILLUSTRATION BY RICK HO

Photo: Six artists have six Grammy nominations apiece this year, including (clockwise from top left) Dan Auerbach of the Black Keys, fun., Jay-Z, Frank Ocean, Mumford & Sons and Kanye West. Illustration by Rick Ho, Orange County Register. Click the pic for more nominees.

Adele sweeping her way to a six-win coronation at last year's Grammy Awards was the easiest thing for prognosticators to predict since Norah Jones had everyone's vote virtually a decade earlier.

But this time, despite murmurs that it might be a big night for mellow yet startling R&B newcomer Frank Ocean (don't count on it), the prizes are apt to be so spread around that the top stars of the ceremony may only take home a pair of trophies apiece.

Yet only fun., makers of the irresistible anthem "We Are Young," will compete in all Big 4 categories: album, record and song of the year, plus best new artist.

It's downright absurd – albeit not unthinkable – that they'd sweep, just as it's unlikely Ocean will win in three of those four matches. (He somehow missed the cut for the song race, though Carly Rae Jepsen's intolerable "Call Me Maybe" squeaked in.) More believable is that Grammy voters will inadvertently split honors between them – or cancel both out as newcomers saluted enough by several nominations. That could allow a not-so-illogical sleeper choice like Kelly Clarkson to walk off with a few.

No matter how you divvy up the numbers, however, the outcome is the same: The top winner may wind up with no more than three Grammys, and he might just be the guy perhaps seen least during the show: Kanye.

Outlook: For the first time in many years, a credible case can be made for any of these candidates coming out the victor, though that might be stretching it in fun.'s case.

All the same, I see this one going to the Mumfords.

Ocean's disc was striking, soul-deep yet innovative, and it landed atop scores of critics' lists – but critics don't vote, and regardless how many academy members will want to reward his bold emergence, there are plenty in the older guard who just won't get it. Don't forget: This category hasn't produced a champ steeped in hip-hop in almost a decade, since OutKast's unassailable win in 2004. And that was only the second rap album to reach that peak.

Jack White can get hero-worshipped by industry types just as much as fans, and as the only repeat nominee in this field (the White Stripes' Elephant lost to OutKast's opus) he may have a slight edge. On the other hand, he isn't up for record or song of the year, and as an overall assortment his gets trumped pretty handily by the Black Keys' fast-burning machine.

White and the Keys are current keepers of the American rock 'n' roll flame, a factor not to be underestimated after a Brit (Adele) and a bunch of Canadians (Arcade Fire) took it home the past two years. But Mumford & Sons have seemed destined for Grammy gold from the moment they stepped on stateside soil. They're authentic, unorthodox yet totally traditional, compellingly passionate, teeming with timeless themes and melodies – all those things Grammy voters seem to value most.

I think they would have showered the quartet with statuettes back in 2011 if M&S had already benefitted from breakout moments like their appearance at that ceremony alongside Bob Dylan. Two years later they return with more-of-the-same classicist brilliance and the second-fastest first-week sales of 2012 – and don't kid yourself that commercial success doesn't matter.

Right, anyone could win. But when in doubt, bet on the one that sounds most like it came from the past.

Outlook: Six choices but no "Call Me Maybe," since this is where it belongs, if at all. That ought to give you a sense of how undecided Grammy people are.

Toss out Taylor's token nod; she's already got a shelf-full, plus she's far from the strongest in the pack this time. "Lonely Boy" defies logic that says rockin' rave-ups never win, so pitch that one, too, along with Ocean's pearl, which is comparably too esoteric.

Gotye could take it based on sheer omnipresence, but that typically works against a hit, not for it. "We Are Young," which I think will walk away with the next category, could do the same here. But for either prize don't underestimate the first (and still best) American Idol.

"Stronger" was empowering pop powerfully executed, every bit as infectious as those ditties from Gotye and fun. but smacking of far less novelty. It's her biggest runaway smash since "Since U Been Gone," which scored Clarkson her only two Grammys ... seven years ago.

Outlook: Jepsen's inclusion is an aberration. Miguel's and Sheeran's are much-deserved acknowledgements of talents more people should hear. Ocean ought to have been in the running, but instead it's fun.'s anthem vs. Clarkson's. As this is a songwriter's award, the bait-and-switch tempo shift and sky-high uplift of "We Are Young" should put it over the top with enough scrutinizing voters; more nonchalant members will pick it simply because they still can't get it out of their heads.

Outlook: You'd think it would be fun.'s all the way, since Nate Ruess and that gang might take two other big ones. Also: country kids often cause upsets. But this should be – and deserves to be – Ocean's consolation prize. All five of these candidates have promise, some (Alabama Shakes) more than others (Hayes). But Ocean's voice and style are a cut above, and his courage to out himself in a macho man's game won't be overlooked. Give him two genre wins plus this and he might be the chief winner after all.

OTHER CATEGORIES

Pop/Dance: The Kelly-vs-fun. battle in the top categories will continue here, with Clarkson picking up best pop solo performance while the duo or group prize will go to Janelle Monáe and her "We Are Young" collaborators. But which will steal the pop album honor? Or will Florence & the Machine be the spoiler?

Meanwhile, Swedish House Mafia may be saying goodbye, but they can also mutter hej då to a best dance recording Grammy that will be won instead by Skrillex – who also stands to claim the album prize as well over Deadmau5, Kaskade and the Chemical Brothers.

Rock: Logically the Black Keys or Mumford & Sons should take best rock performance – except they're up against Bruce Springsteen, who isn't just revered, he actually gave a better, more resonant performance with "We Take Care of Our Own," a campaign anthem that Grammy voters could be quick to honor.

He seems a sure thing for best rock song as well, and though Wrecking Ball didn't get a top nod like the Keys' and Jack White's discs did, I bet it still beats 'em for best rock album.

Also, I wouldn't be surprised if Marilyn Manson won his first Grammy, for hard rock/metal, but I think Iron Maiden will snag it again. And though voters might give best alternative music album to Tom Waits for a third time, the likelier winner is Fiona Apple, who would score her first miniature Victrola since taking best female rock vocal performance in 1996.

R&B/Rap: Miguel will justly win his first Grammy, his instant-classic "Adorn" taking best R&B performance – and then he'll win his second, for best R&B song. Beyoncé is likely to pick up her 17th trophy, this time in the traditional R&B face-off. Frank Ocean will unquestionably claim best urban contemporary album and probably share another award with Jay-Z and Kanye for best rap/sung collaboration, for "No Church in the Wild."

Yet, though that duo's killer track about "Paris" is a strong contender for best rap song, as are cuts from Nas and Drake, I've got fingers crossed that Snoop Dogg will finally win a Grammy for "Young, Wild & Free," his feel-good hit with Wiz Khalifa and Bruno Mars. Nas and Drake, meanwhile, will duke it out for best rap album, although my money's on the Roots' Undun.

Country: Springsteen wins in rock, and Eric Church's tune "Springsteen" scores him two wins in this genre, for best performance and best song. The album win, however, should go to Miranda Lambert, maybe Zac Brown Band, with Vince Gill's Time Jumpers project a dark horse. Mumford, meanwhile, seems a lock for best Americana album over the Lumineers' similar but less-heralded debut.

Performances: Who cares who wins, right? This is "music's biggest night," so it had better have star power – which it does, from a Taylor Swift opening to the eagerly anticipated live return of Justin Timberlake.

All of the album of the year nominees plus Kelly Clarkson will have a turn in the Staples spotlight, with Mumford & Sons joining Elton John, Mavis Staples, Zac Brown and Alabama Shakes vocalist Brittany Howard in a tribute to the Band's late drummer and vocalist Levon Helm. Elton also will perform with Ed Sheeran, Alicia Keys will team up with Maroon 5, and Bruno Mars, Rihanna and Sting have concocted something.

Also expected are Carrie Underwood, the Lumineers, Miranda Lambert, Dierks Bentley and Miguel. LL Cool J once again hosts, while presenters include Dave Grohl, Katy Perry, Faith Hill, Tim McGraw, Jennifer Lopez and Prince. Pre-telecast awards will be streamed live from Nokia Theatre on the official Grammy site.

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