Still no signs of movement at the RBA

19.JUL.2018

Ian Martin,

In August the cash rate will have been stuck at 1.50% for two full years¹

We look to the RBA Board Meeting minutes for clues as to when rates will rise

The media is full of comments about global interest rates rising, but after almost two years with the Australian official interest rate at 1.50% is a rise really imminent? Probably not if you study the RBA minutes.

Commentators have focused on key comments indicating that the next move is likely to be up, but will not be seen for some time.

Key takeouts:

In the minutes of the RBA’s July board meeting they reintroduced the comment “the next move in the cash rate would more likely be an increase than a decrease”.

But, the RBA also noted “since progress towards a lower unemployment and inflation rate closer to the mid-point of the target range was likely to be gradual”.

It was appropriate for the RBA to be a “source of stability and confidence.”

This implies any movement in rates would be some time away.

The on-hold view is supported by the comment “there was no strong case for a near-term adjustment in monetary policy”.

The level of household debt was also a focus with the statements “high levels of household debt could affect economic outcomes” and “that household balance sheets continued to warrant close and careful monitoring.”

The market is still not pricing a full 25bp rate increase in 2019, and this seems fair.

We remain confident there will be no RBA change during the first 3 quarters of 2019.

Disclaimer

The information in this article is general in nature. It should not be the sole source of information. It does not take into account the investment objectives or circumstances of any particular investor. You should consider, with or without advice from a professional adviser, whether an investment is appropriate to your circumstances. Australian Corporate Bond Company Limited is the Securities Manager of XTBs and will earn fees in connection with an investment in XTBs.