APPLE OPENS UP ITS OPERATING SYSTEMS AS iPHONE DOMINATES

Step-change thinking moves Apple to an old/new business paradigm

Dateline: 23 October 2012

Apple has not previously been known to favor opening up its software to other hardware platforms. This control obsession has seen it lose out to Microsoft in the personal computer market as the IBM PC platform created a massive plug-compatible industry in the 1990s.

It has often been said that if Apple had opened up its Mac operating system to other hardware manufacturers, that Apple would have enjoyed Microsoft's success during the first phase of the PC revolution. Perhaps, if that had been the case, Microsoft would not even exist today.

The iPhone has become the de-facto smart phone standard, eclipsing Blackberry, Windows, and even Apple's own iPod sales. But, with an 'open' OS, could Apple be much bigger still?

For a while, Apple seemed determined to make the same mistake over and over again.

But, when Steve Jobs stepped down, Apple made a market-changing decision to allow a new iPhone operating platform, iOS, to be run on smart phones from all manufacturers.

Today the Nokia iPhone and LG iPhone are the market leaders in a smart phone market in which 85% of all smart phones sold run on the iOS platform.

Now, Apple is rumored to be ready to make a similar decision to open up the Mac operating system to all-comers. We'd suggest that this may be two decades too late - coming as it does just as the laptop and desk-top computer markets are showing serious decline.

In any event, Apple and iOS are now the dominant platforms in the growth markets that really matter. Apple's stock reached a new high yesterday.

The iPhone operating system is known as "iPhone OS, known as OS X iPhone in its early history, the operating system developed by Apple Inc. for the iPhone and iPod touch." There's no such thing as iOS.

You say "There's no such thing as iOS" - remember that this is 2012, it does exist, it has 85% market share!

The point of this MindBullet is APPLE OPENED UP ITS SOFTWARE TO OTHER HARDWARE PLATFORMS! Don't you think that is an 'earth-shattering' business implication?

Many of the mobile phone hardware vendors are struggling and this could be a vital coup for Apple to dominate future markets - profits on the hardware platform will not always be there for Apple either! Remember they made this mistake before and are unlikely to do so again - one hopes.

I agree that the Open iPhone OS is the big story. With 85% market share they are unlikely to drop the iPhone moniker in two years. Microsoft are already calling their latest mobile offering Windows Phone. Maybe Apple will call theirs iPhone OSfree, but I doubt it!

These spectacular results seem to engender a little sense of Deja vu - reminding me of the time in the early 1990s when IBM's results went from the biggest profit in business history to its biggest loss in just one year.Just think of these forces acting around Apple's success: Job's health (even a genius does not live forever), the success of Android smart phones (outselling iPhone for the first time), the ongoing ego battle between Apple and Adobe (still no Flash support on iPad and iPhone) and concerns over what might be Apple's 'Next Big Thing' (and who might inspire it). Watch this storm develop!A FuturesForum post (titled: "Is this Apple's 'Perfect Storm'?") refers to this MindBullet. The full FuturesForum post can be read here: http://www.futureworld.org/PublicZone/FuturesForum/BlogDetails.aspx?PostID=d8fd0537-abcd-4fd4-8dcc-4ac57a6438c7

With these latest developments Apple appears to be building a bigger and bigger firewall around its own products. If they don't achieve the 'total domination' of the user interface, then these latest moves may well precipitate the 'perfect storm' of user reaction! Let's see what happens next.

With this latest move (see link below) Apple is continuing its efforts to build ever more firewalls around its own products. What is it about 'openness' that they don't understand? If they do not succeed in dominating the user interface, perhaps negative user reaction to such isolationist behaviour could precipitate a 'perfect storm' for Apple?

But for me the battle of the maps is very interesting. Google Maps on the iPhone doesn't give voice guided navigation which is an obvious flaw - you should be able to ask Siri to direct you somewhere! So now Apple is giving you TomTom for free, while Android has Google maps with voice, and Windows Phone has Nokia Maps with voice which are very good, also free, with downloads for offline use. The big loser in all this is Garmin, who used to dominate personal navigation, and now is stuck with BlackBerry and their own devices. Garmin's new apps for iPhone are trying to replicate the service, but are not compatible with Garmin maps on a laptop!

If Apple's new Maps app is the equivalent of TomTom but for free, I will happily use it. I just hope Siri understands where Kyalami is!

As Apple steams ahead in teh global biggest company stakes, one cant help but ask ' will the mighty fall?' So often market leaders, for a host of reasons, seem to hit maturity and then slide into oblivion. Is it hubris, arrogance, size or organizational bureaucracy that stifles the very growth that elevated their position in the market in the first place?

Will Apple succeed with its 'walled garden' strategy in an increasingly open and collaborative world? Will it continue to dominate the tablet war and will it be able to grow its share of the smart phone market ahead of Android? Can Apple survive its leader and master? It has all the opportunities open to it but can it think and execute with agility, embrace new ways of doing business and appeal to the customers of the future?

Those old enough to remember will recall that Jobs was fired from Apple in 1985 as the company lost its way and Microsoft-powered PC clones (an inadvertently 'open' architecture) destined to dominate the market.

When he returned to the company in 1997, the troubled Apple was worth just $2b. As the US markets recoiled last week Apple reached a market cap of $337b. A huge tick and star for Jobs!

But has anything been learned? Apple is still a walled garden and the 1985 scenario is starting to happen again....the iPhone is being overtaken by a new 'open' operating system, the hugely successful iPad has more than 20 me-too competitors, some even rated higher, and they are open to Flash, Java and others that have been excluded from the Apple universe because of Jobs' personal vendettas.

Effcetively,if you buy into the Apple universe you agree not to access billions of bits of information that just happen to use 'walled off' technologies. This is NOT what the internet and mobile universe was supposed to be all about.

There is another perspective to this action against Samsung - Apple buys a lot of components form Samsung and may be seeking to increase their leverage at the bargaining table.

This may also be seen as bullying by a monopolistic 'big brother' who can't compete in an open environment. There could be a backlash, as the market sentiment often favours the underdog. Perhaps Apple is getting a taste for hubris that will be their ultimate downfall?

For the first time, Apple is giving away operating systems for free. Mind you, although you can install OSX on generic hardware, Apple will not license it for use on a non-Apple laptop.

Also in the announcement was free office software that appears to compete with Microsoft and Google. This is definitely an attempt by Apple to become more entrenched in the corporate market. Microsoft established its dominance in PC software by allowing its systems to run on any compatible hardware. Google gained a foothold with individual users with free cloud services like Gmail and Google Docs.

Apple is still trying to tie people into their closed eco-system. By giving away the software and some services for free, they hope to gain more loyal hardware users. Didn't Sun try that in the server market? Perhaps Apple has recognised that operating systems, like browsers, have become commoditised and they are eating their own lunch, before someone else does.