Online and onscreen, disappeared flight draws intense speculation

Vietnamese Navy's Deputy Commander Rear Admiral Le Minh Thanh points at a map to show the area where Vietnam is conducting search activities for the missing Malaysia Airlines flight 370 in Phu Quoc island on March 12, 2014. Vietnam said on March 12 it had suspended its air search for missing flight MH370 and scaled back a sea search as it waited for Malaysia to clarify the potential new direction of the multi-national hunt. AFP PHOTO / LE QUANG NHATLE QUANG NHAT/AFP/Getty Images

Photo: LE QUANG NHAT, AFP/Getty Images

It is the talk of lunchrooms, chat rooms and, most certainly, television green rooms across the globe: How and why could a modern jumbo jet disappear without a trace?

Along with the predictable UFO theories, the suggestion, presumably facetious, that the television series "Lost" was secretly filming a new season became one of dozens of memes related to Flight 370, some more serious than others, on Twitter.

On chat rooms frequented by pilots and aviation experts, there was more informed discussion of the technical possibilities, such as a sudden decompression or mass electrical failure, and of how a transponder could be shut down. But even the best-informed were arriving at logical impasses.

The one constant, beyond the probability that a terrible tragedy lurked at the end of the story, was the factual void at its center, heightening the frenzy of speculation.

"A main ingredient for rumor generation and transmission is uncertainty," said Nicholas DiFonzo, a social psychologist at Rochester Institute of Technology and author of "The Watercooler Effect."

Also fueling the intense interest is the suggestion of continuing danger. "Anything that even hints at making us feel less secure or threatened evokes our attention," DiFonzo said. "It's hard-wired into us."

But the main reason for the fascination, he added, may be the sheer mystery, which allows everyone to play detective.

So much uncertainty also opens the door for partisans to dwell on favored themes.

Many American newscasters, after saying that "of course it is premature to draw conclusions," have veered toward hypotheses about terrorism as they host the usual scramble of former Federal Aviation Administration investigators, pilot/authors, security experts and, in this case, oceanographers, who helped, at their best, to establish the outer limits of what remained frustrated guesswork.

CNN brought in Dan Rather, introduced as a newsman with long experience, to say, "I don't rule out anything." Robert Ballard, the deep-sea explorer who discovered the hulk of the Titanic, described the relatively shallow waters but strong currents of the Gulf of Thailand and the Strait of Malacca and wondered if the flight had continued into the Indian Ocean.

Fox News was most aggressive with the terror theory. "I'm not afraid of the word terrorism," Sean Hannity said as he pushed his expert guests to agree that, given the latest statements from Malaysia that the plane appeared to have altered its route, foul play seemed all but certain. At the same time, Al-Jazeera America, in its BBC-like fashion, was careful to stress the unknowns as the Malaysian authorities issued yet another contradictory account.

In China, government officials sought to stanch speculation about terrorism as they expressed growing concern about Malaysia's handling of the investigation. The country's energetic bloggers were mostly restrained, but some theorized that the Malaysian military had mistakenly shot down the plane after it abruptly changed course, then covered up the action after they realized their mistake.

In Iran, perhaps embarrassed that two of its nationals onboard had carried false passports, an influential lawmaker on Tuesday called the entire episode a form of psychological warfare by the United States to "sabotage the relationship between Iran and China and Southeast Asia."

The passionate global interest, the mystery and modern technology came together more constructively with a crowdsourced digital search of Asian waters organized by DigitalGlobe, a satellite imaging company based in Colorado. The company has made available new satellite photographs of thousands of square miles of ocean in the target areas, and by Tuesday more than 80,000 volunteers had scoured patches for signs of debris, according to The Denver Post.

Among experts in advanced location technology, the discussion centered on why modern aircraft do not have foolproof distress devices. Hans Peter Brondmo, who directs innovations including global positioning and mapping methods for a unit of Nokia, noted in an interview that his sailboat carries a device that will rise to the surface and send a distress call in the event of a mishap. "The technology for finding something is there," he said. "The question is, why haven't we done that yet for airplanes?"

Some of the most technically informed comments were posted on Professional Pilots Rumour Network, a Britain-based chat room that, despite its name, is widely read in the aviation world. The comments, many from experienced pilots and crew members who did not give their real names, included discussions of radar capabilities and of how communications are supposed to transfer between Malaysia, Singapore and Vietnam - and more talk than elsewhere, it seemed, about how sudden depressurization and lack of oxygen could quickly render a crew and passengers unconscious.

Of the lack of distress signals, a writer from Pennsylvania who said he was an experienced transcontinental pilot wrote, "With CPDLC, HF, VHF, ACARS and SATCOM, I'll find some way to get a message out under duress." It would take "five seconds, top," he said. Asserting that wreckage would be visible if there had been an explosion or structural failure, he posited either a hijacking or a "hypoxia event leading to incapacitation of all life on board."

A British writer responded, "If hypoxia is correct then why did all means of communication, manual or automated, cease so abruptly?"

Even this expert crowd was not immune to wild speculation. One flight-crew member wrote: "Could this aircraft literally have been 'stolen'? Was there a cargo on board that organizations could seriously want and would take whatever measures to secure it?"

These relative specialists shared in the frustration with Malaysian officials' swerving accounts. "I think we've been spoiled by all the NTSB briefings," with their "calm, clear delivery of information and faultless handling of journalistic queries," a British commentator wrote, referring to the National Transportation Safety Board.