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Is the conservative consensus crumbling over gay marriage?

This week, newly-unearthed internal memos revealed that a leading group fighting gay marriage, the National Organization for Marriage, sought to drive "a wedge between gays and blacks," among other divide-and-conquer tactics, to stop same-sex unions.

But opponents of gay marriage are facing a rift of their own: The defection of libertarian conservatives from the cause.

In North Carolina, two leading conservatives in the state made public statements this week opposing Amendment One, the far-reaching ballot measure that will be voted on May 8, and another GOP leader admitted the law will likely be overturned within 20 years.

I think amending North Carolina’s constitution to forbid gay and lesbian couples from receiving any future legal recognition, including civil unions, is unwise and unfair. In my opinion the real threat to marriage is not the prospect of gay people getting hitched. It is the reality of straight people too quickly resorting to divorce, or never getting hitched in the first place.

In covering Hood's statement, reporters turned to another prominent libertarian-leaning conservative, Bob Orr, a former state Supreme Court Justice who used to lead another Pope-backed project, the N.C. Institute for Constitutional Law.

Any provision that has to be put into the ‘miscellaneous’ section of the constitution immediately raises questions about whether it should be in the state constitution. It’s probably not a provision that ought to be in.

Oddly enough, that sentiment was echoed by none other than N.C. Republican House Speaker Thom Tillis, who in 2011 led the effort to bring the Amendment One ballot measure to the house floor and voted in favor of it.

Speaking to a group of students this week, Rep. Tillis predicted Amendment One would pass in May but repealed in 20 years because of changing views about gay marriage, saying:

It's a generational issue. If it passes, I think it will be repealed within 20 years.

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