Last week was one of the more straightforward weeks of the college football
season. Only two ranked teams succumbed to defeat, but they were up against
fellow ranked opponents. A straightforward week like that is usually
followed by all-out chaos, and I expect this week to provide the drama and
thrills that we've grown accustom to throughout the previous eight college
football weekends. There are several storylines I could touch on like the
Penn State/Ohio State game, or the new Heisman rankings, or the handful of
players that were cited and then suspended for marijuana use. However, two
of those topics won't help you win any money, and you can read the third
here
.

The purpose of this weekly article to help bettors find those "diamond in
the rough" type games with soft lines and increase your edge over the book.
The majority of new bettors make the same mistake every week - they get
sucked into the media's propaganda and all the "hype up" commercials on
television. I can't tell you how many commercials I've seen for the
upcoming Penn State/Ohio State game. Don't get me wrong, that game could go
down as the game of the year, but if that's the only thing a new bettor
sees, that is likely the game they will bet on. What these square bettors
don't know is that the line has very little value left in it and the books
will typically win more often than not.

Tonight's card features three games, including a pair from the AAC and a
single but very intriguing game from the ACC. In the American Athletic
Conference, Tulane travels to No. 24 Memphis and Tulsa travels to SMU to
take on the Mustangs. Las Vegas odds currently have
Memphis favorited by 10.5 points and the Mustangs by nine
. The totals sit at 64 and 76.5, respectively. In the lone ACC game,
Florida State hits the road for a date with the Boston College Eagles. The
Seminoles are currently four-point favorites with the total set at 47.

From a Top-25 perspective, there are four very intriguing matchups that
will have massive conference and playoff implications. For starters, the
Big Ten (and likely college football) game of the year goes on Saturday at
3:30 from Columbus where the No. 6 Ohio State Buckeyes host No. 2 Penn
State. The Buckeyes are currently 6.5-point favorites. In the other
matchups, No. 11 Oklahoma State (-7.5) takes their high-powered offense
into Morgantown to tangle with the West Virginia Mountaineers, No. 4 TCU
(-7) travels to Ames for a date with No. 25 Iowa State and lastly, No. 14
N.C. State hits the road for a showdown with No. 9 Notre Dame (-7).

Last week could have been much more profitable than it ended up being. I
was able to hit my 3-unit play on
FAU -3.5,
but I took a push on Western Michigan -3. This brings my record to 8-6-1
with a profit of 8.8 Units.

This week I absolutely love these two "under the radar" games on Saturday.
These will both be my biggest plays of the year, and I fully intend on
cashing them both. I will use $100 as my unit of wager, and as always, all
lines are courtesy of our friends at 5Dimes.

If you are a serious sports bettor like myself, I am sure you get annoyed
when you get asked "who is your favorite team?" My answer to that, unless
they are asking about hockey (in which case the answer is always the
Toronto Maple Leafs) is "whoever can make me money." I don't have time to
support a football team that doesn't even reside in my country, let alone a
team from a school I don't pay any attention to outside of football or
basketball season.

With that said, I was all over Florida Atlantic last week to get the job
done, and they came through in a big way. It was a solid win for a program
that absolutely needed to win that game in order to keep the dream of
playing in a bowl game alive. They were my favorite team last week, but
this week I am jumping ship and fading the hell out of them. While FAU made
us some money last week, the fashion in which they did so (a 69-31 beatdown
over North Texas) has given us three or four free points to work with,
depending on what number you get. Thank you, public perception.

It's one thing to beat up on a North Texas team that struggles on the road,
but it's another for FAU to hit the road and lay seven points to anyone,
let alone one of the preseason favorites -- and a team that's lived up to
expectations so far -- Western Kentucky.

The Hilltoppers come into this game after securing a solid road victory
against a feisty Old Dominion team. Quarterback Mike White tossed five
touchdowns and just one interception in that game, marking the second time
in as many games that he's thrown for five touchdowns. We all remember how
good Brandon Doughty was for WKU, but White has taken the reigns and run
with them. I expect White to move his team up and down the field against an
FAU team that allows more than 420 yards per game and 31 points per game on
the road.

The FAU offense is going to find it much harder this week to move the ball
and put points on the board. They are facing a Hilltoppers defense that is
allowing just 355 yards per game and holding opponents to just 18 points
per game at home.

I wrote about it last week that FAU needed to win three more games to
become bowl eligible. They got their first of three wins against North
Texas, but this is a game I expect them to lose. If they happen to pull off
the victory, I expect it to be on a last-second field goal.

For my second selection, I am backing a team from one of my absolute
favorite conferences to bet on - the Sun Belt. But before I do, if there is
something I am missing regarding why the spread in this game is
single-digits, let alone less than a touchdown, please let me know ASAP.

I don't know if you've seen any game involving the Minutemen, but they are
not a very good football team. They own a 1-6 record on the season, and
that lone win came last week at the expense of Georgia Southern. I'm sorry,
but does beating an 0-6 team all of a sudden make you a competent team? I
don't think so.

The Minutemen are terrible on both sides of the football, which is why they
don't have a chance in this game against a real, competent, and
high-scoring offense. UMass is giving up more than 31 points per game and
is allowing opponents to move the ball up and down the field with ease,
yielding just fewer than 400 yards per game. Mix in the fact that App State
is averaging 30 points per game and more than 420 yards per game, and this
game is matchup nightmare for the Minutemen.

Appalachian State was the preseason favorite to win the Sun Belt
conference, and they haven't drastically faltered yet. Their two losses
came to Georgia and Wake Forest - two power conference teams that are
having stellar seasons. While every game presents a new challenge, this
game should present a challenge that App State can handle with ease.