2012 Fantasy Football: First-Round Bust History

There will be many more 2012 Fantasy Football Rankings and features in the late spring and summer, including tons of 2012 Fantasy Football Mock Drafts and Player Rankings. I'll also have an extensive 2012 NFL Fantasy Football Preseason Stock Report. Follow me @walterfootball for updates.

2012 Fantasy Football - First-Round Bust History (Feb. 17):

If you've played fantasy football for a while, you know that whiffing on your first-round pick can prove to be pretty costly. Despite this, there are several first-round consensus players who bust each year.

In this article, I'm going to look at my top 12 rankings over the previous six years to see if we can establish some sort of trend for finding potential fantasy busts.

2011 Fantasy Football Top 12:

Chris Johnson, RB, Titans. (BUST)

Ray Rice, RB, Ravens.

Adrian Peterson, RB, Vikings.

LeSean McCoy, RB, Eagles.

Rashard Mendenhall, RB, Steelers. (BUST)

Andre Johnson, WR, Texans. (BUST)

Aaron Rodgers, QB, Packers.

Arian Foster, RB, Texans.

Darren McFadden, RB, Raiders. (BUST)

Calvin Johnson, WR, Lions.

Jamaal Charles, RB, Chiefs. (BUST)

Frank Gore, RB, 49ers.

Chris Johnson (Inexplicable Regression): Well, maybe it's not that inexplicable. Chris Johnson spent too much time clamoring for a contract this offseason. As a result, he looked slow and sluggish.

Rashard Mendenhall (Injuries): Rashard Mendenhall's carry total went down from 324 in 2010 to 228 in 2011. He battled nagging injuries all year and didn't look very good running the football.

Andre Johnson (Injury): There was nothing you could do about this.

Darren McFadden (Injury): Darren McFadden was awesome early, but he never returned to the lineup after getting hurt in the middle of the season. This was pretty predictable.

Jamaal Charles (Injury): Jamaal Charles tore his ACL in Week 2.

2010 Fantasy Football Top 12:

Adrian Peterson, RB, Vikings.

Chris Johnson, RB, Titans.

Ray Rice, RB, Ravens.

Maurice Jones-Drew, RB, Jaguars.

Frank Gore, RB, 49ers. (BUST)

Michael Turner, RB, Falcons.

Andre Johnson, WR, Texans.

Aaron Rodgers, QB, Packers.

Randy Moss, WR, Patriots. (BUST)

Calvin Johnson, WR, Lions.

Ryan Mathews, RB, Chargers. (BUST)

Rashard Mendenhall, RB, Steelers.

Frank Gore (Injury): Frank Gore was a bust because he played in only 11 games, and was limited in several others. You usually can't project injuries, but Gore is a player who always seems to be hurt, even dating back to his college days.

Randy Moss (Age): The Randy Moss thing befuddled me. Tom Brady and Moss showed good chemistry in the preseason, so Moss' rapid decline came from out of nowhere. Or did it? Moss turned 33 seven months prior to the start of the 2010 season. One of my rules is that you should never pick a non-quarterback 32 years or older early in your fantasy draft. Non-quarterbacks tend to decline at 32 or 33. That's not always the case - see Derrick Mason - but it usually is. I don't know why I didn't listen to my own advice with Moss. I guess I just figured that Brady would be able to carry him. Whoops.

Ryan Mathews (Injury): Ryan Mathews had a decent Week 1 performance against the Chiefs, considering the sloppy conditions at Arrowhead. However, after generating 55 yards on just seven touches against the Jaguars in Week 2, he suffered a high ankle sprain during that contest and was never the same until late in the year. As I said, you usually can't project injuries. This one came out of nowhere.

2009 Fantasy Football Top 12:

Adrian Peterson, RB, Vikings.

Matt Forte, RB, Bears. (BUST)

Maurice Jones-Drew, RB, Jaguars.

LaDainian Tomlinson, RB, Chargers. (BUST)

Chris Johnson, RB, Titans.

Steve Slaton, RB, Texans. (BUST)

DeAngelo Williams, RB, Panthers.

Randy Moss, WR, Patriots.

Clinton Portis, RB, Redskins. (BUST)

Michael Turner, RB, Falcons. (BUST)

Steven Jackson, RB, Rams.

Andre Johnson, WR, Texans.

Matt Forte (Inexplicable Regression): Matt Forte had an incredible rookie year and was also very good in 2010 despite the fact that Mike Martz didn't give him 250 carries for the first time in his career. So, what happened in 2009? Forte admitted that he didn't put enough effort into his workouts the preceding offseason and was consequently out of shape.

LaDainian Tomlinson (Age): LaDainian Tomlinson had 12 touchdowns in 2009, but really struggled overall. He rushed for just 730 yards and caught only 20 balls. Tomlinson was only 29 heading into the 2009 campaign, but already had 2,100 carries under his belt. That's the red flag number for running backs.

By the way, for those concerned about Steven Jackson wearing down, he's only at 1,878 carries, so he should still have one really good year left in the tank.

Steve Slaton (Inexplicable Regression): It's hard to believe that Steve Slaton had 1,282 rushing yards, 377 receiving yards and 10 touchdowns as a rookie in 2008. In 2009, however, Slaton averaged 3.3 yards per carry and lost five fumbles, prompting Gary Kubiak to bench him. I'll never understand what happened to Slaton. He definitely had the talent, but perhaps he just didn't love football enough to put in the necessary offseason work to be a great player.

Clinton Portis (Age): As with LaDainian Tomlinson, Clinton Portis was over the 2,100-carry mark. Avoiding players who hit this plateau is a valuable lesson I learned during the 2009 season.

Michael Turner (Overuse): I don't know why I had Michael Turner so high because I wrote the following in the 2009 fantasy rankings:

If you take [Turner's] 376 attempts and add on 18 from the playoff loss to Arizona, you get 394 carries. Why is this important? Check out this fantasy football article chronicling the history of running backs with high carry totals and how they performed the following year. It's not pretty.

2008 Fantasy Football Top 12:

LaDainian Tomlinson, RB, Chargers

Steven Jackson, RB, Rams

Brian Westbrook, RB, Eagles

Joseph Addai, RB, Colts (BUST)

Frank Gore, RB, 49ers

Adrian Peterson, RB, Vikings

Tom Brady, QB, Patriots (BUST)

Randy Moss, WR, Patriots

Clinton Portis, RB, Redskins

Marion Barber, RB, Cowboys

Marshawn Lynch, RB, Bills

Ryan Grant, RB, Packers

Joseph Addai (Injury): Joseph Addai rushed for 1,072 yards and scored 15 touchdowns in 2007, but couldn't follow that up because of health issues. Addai has been banged up ever since.

Tom Brady (Injury): There was only one first-round quarterback bust in the past five years. That was Tom Brady, who suffered that nasty knee injury in the season opener against the Chiefs. Obviously, no one could have predicted that.

2007 Fantasy Football Top 12:

LaDainian Tomlinson, RB, Chargers

Steven Jackson, RB, Rams

Frank Gore, RB, 49ers

Joseph Addai, RB, Colts

Larry Johnson, RB, Chiefs (BUST)

Laurence Maroney, RB, Patriots (BUST)

Brian Westbrook, RB, Eagles

Maurice Jones-Drew, RB, Jaguars (BUST)

Travis Henry, RB, Broncos (BUST)

Willie Parker, RB, Steelers

Steve Smith, WR, Panthers

Terrell Owens, WR, Cowboys

Larry Johnson (Overuse): Like Michael Turner in 2009, Larry Johnson's 2007 campaign was doomed because he carried the football 416 times in 2006. Everyone say thank you to Herm Edwards for ruining Johnson's career. And I'm not being facetious here - Johnson is a douche, so Herm did the right thing.

Laurence Maroney (Overrated): Bill Belichick spent a first-round pick on Laurence Maroney, so I figured he was good. Not quite. Maroney did average 4.5 yards per carry in 2007, generating 835 rushing yards in the process. However, he never became a big part of the passing game; he caught just four balls that year. Ultimately, Maroney just sucked, and because Belichick overrated him, I made the same mistake.

Maurice Jones-Drew (Veteran Presence): We've seen it many times recently. DeAngelo Williams with Jonathan Stewart. Joseph Addai with Donald Brown. Thomas Jones with Cedric Benson and Shonn Greene. Veteran running backs tend to get more motivated when their team spends an early pick on a running back. That was the case with the Jaguars in 2007. I thought Jones-Drew would get the bulk of the workload in his second season, but Fred Taylor had other ideas. Taylor rushed for 1,200 yards that year.

Travis Henry (Injury): Before Travis Henry took up getting arrested as a hobby, he was a pretty good NFL running back. He rushed for 1,211 yards and seven touchdowns with the Titans in 2006, so I thought he could have a huge season in Mike Shanahan's offense the following year. Unfortunately, Henry had a lingering knee injury all season that caused him to miss four games.

2006 Fantasy Football Top 12:

Larry Johnson, RB, Chiefs

Shaun Alexander, RB, Seahawks (BUST)

LaDainian Tomlinson, RB, Chargers

Tiki Barber, RB, Giants

Steve Smith, WR, Panthers

Terrell Owens, WR, Cowboys

Ronnie Brown, RB, Dolphins

Marvin Harrison, WR, Colts

Peyton Manning, QB, Colts

Torry Holt, WR, Rams

Steven Jackson, RB, Rams

Randy Moss, WR, Raiders (BUST)

Shaun Alexander (Overuse): Yet another running back to lead the NFL in carries (370).

1. Of the 21 first-round busts over the past six years, only three have been receivers. One was Andre Johnson (injury), while the others were both Randy Moss. So, if you're taking a receiver in the first round, it's almost a lock that you'll get a reliable fantasy stud. Thus, taking the sure-bet receiver over the risky running back is the wiser move.

2. Only one top-12 quarterback has busted since 2006 (two if you were crazy enough to have QB Dog Killer up there). Signal-callers are usually really safe.

3. Three of the 21 first-round busts were age-related. If you spend an early pick on a non-quarterback, make sure he's A) younger than 32 and B) not about to hit the 2,100-carry mark that season.

4. Three other first-round busts were running backs who led the NFL in carries the previous year. Avoid these guys as well.

2012 Fantasy Football Potential Early Busts:

Check back later in the spring when I will look at some of the players chosen in or near the first round of 2012 Fantasy Football Drafts (or mock drafts). I'll try to identify the riskiest early selections in 2012 Fantasy Football.