Vulture’s Final Oscar-Nomination Predictions

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Will Ryan Gosling and Emma Stone both get in?Photo: Dale Robinette/Lionsgate

After months of award-season campaigning and shifting fortunes, the Academy will finally announce this year’s Oscar nominations next week on Tuesday, January 24. So what will make it in, and what won’t? That’s the topic of this week’s episode of the Awards Show Show, where Vulture’s Kyle Buchanan and KPCC’s John Horn each make their best guesses in the eight biggest categories. Listen to their picks below and subscribe to the Awards Show Show on iTunes, or read Kyle’s more extensive picks underneath, where he picks the likeliest nominees in every single category except the shorts.

Best Picture ArrivalFencesHacksaw Ridge Hell or High WaterLa La LandLion Manchester by the Sea Moonlight

Give me an extra slot here, and I might add Hidden Figures, a feel-good hit with lots of box-office momentum. But in the end, I went with the eight films I heard Academy voters most often mention as their favorites, all of which have continued to pop up in the precursors.

The Academy’s directors branch frequently goes its own way, and it’s awfully rare that they match up five-for-five with their counterparts in the Directors Guild of America. This year, though, I suspect all five of the DGA nominees will get in, with a potential substitution for Hell or High Water’s David Mackenzie should Lion director Garth Davis fall just short.

The big question here is whether Golden Globe winner Isabelle Huppert will make it in and, if so, which contender she’ll supplant. Some Oscar watchers I’ve talked to think Natalie Portman might be dealt a shocking snub based on Jackie’s recent awards-season shortfall, but I think the performance is too high-profile to be excluded. Meryl Streep could always drop out, but after that Golden Globe speech, she feels safe to me. I think, then, that 20th Century Women’s Annette Bening and Loving’s Ruth Negga will be the women left out.

Will Aaron Taylor-Johnson ride his sudden momentum to Oscar? After a Golden Globe win and a BAFTA nomination, I wouldn’t count him out, and I think Manchester by the Sea’s Lucas Hedges will prove most vulnerable if Taylor-Johnson makes the cut: Good as he is, the Academy tends to prefer its male nominees to be more seasoned than the 20-year-old thespian.

If I had to go double or nothing on one of the four acting categories, I’d place my bet on this one. The first four women are awards-season stalwarts who’ve been making the rounds for months promoting films almost certain to be nominated for Best Picture, while Octavia Spencer is a former Oscar winner who repped Hidden Figures’ sole nomination with the Golden Globes and SAG. Her only real threat is Hidden Figures co-star Janelle Monáe, who’s delightful but hasn’t popped with precursors.

Best Adapted ScreenplayMoonlightArrivalFencesLionNocturnal Animals

Four of our potential Best Picture nominees will rate here, and I’d add Nocturnal Animals, which practically makes its adaptive nature part of the film’s structure.

Best Original ScreenplayManchester by the SeaLa La LandHell or High WaterThe LobsterCaptain Fantastic

When the Academy ruled that Moonlight and Loving had to compete in the adapted-screenplay category instead of the original-screenplay category they’d been campaigning for, that opened up at least two slots for quirkier fare here. Much as I’d like to see Zootopia’s smart script contend, I think the highly acclaimed The Lobster and awards-season surprise Captain Fantastic have better odds.

Best CinematographyLa La LandMoonlightArrivalSilenceLion

Awards season has not been kind to Martin Scorsese’s religious epic Silence, but if there’s a single nomination that can safeguard the film from a total shutout, it looks to be this one.

Best EditingLa La LandMoonlightArrivalHacksaw RidgeManchester by the Sea

Some pundits think Manchester by the Sea’s unflashy edit could be overlooked in this tough group, but I’ve talked to two members of the editing branch who rated it number one, so I think it squeaks in.

Best Production DesignLa La LandFantastic Beasts and Where to Find ThemHail, Caesar!ArrivalThe Handmaiden

Simply put, if The Handmaiden’s vast and intricate sets don’t merit a nomination, then this branch didn’t do its job correctly.

Best Costume DesignFlorence Foster JenkinsLa La LandFantastic Beasts and Where to Find ThemAlliedJackie

This category can be cruel to modern-day films, but I think there’s enough retro pizazz to La La Land that the film will continue its charmed Oscar-nomination run. After all, how many costumes this year were more memorable than Emma Stone’s canary-yellow dress?

Star Trek Beyond adds two major new characters to the mix with enormous makeup demands, while Florence Foster Jenkins has plenty to play with in its high-society setting. I pray that the third slot won’t go to the butt-ugly but plentiful characters of Suicide Squad, in which case foreign-language contender A Man Called Ove may make it in for its title character’s old-age makeup.

As likely Best Picture nominees where the score does a lot of heavy lifting, La La Land, Lion, and Moonlight seem assured. As for Jackie and Nocturnal Animals, both films boast aggressively singular scores, and I’m going to hope that’s a boon rather than a turnoff.

“Faith” from Sing could sub in for one of these choices — and there are roughly a billion Sia-penned songs in contention that could volley through, too — but this is a high-powered lot. If only “I’m So Humble,” the eminently worthy song from Popstar: Never Stop Never Stopping that repped its film’s sole submission, were more than a larky longshot.

Last year’s category included three Best Picture nominees, so I think Arrival gets in. Rogue One and Doctor Strange get the now-obligatory Star Wars and Marvel slots, respectively. The Jungle Book’s level of effects creation is totally insane, and I’ve heard the Deepwater Horizon reel played well at the visual-effects “bake off,” so that’d be my sleeper pick.

What’s the difference between the two sound categories? This one honors sound creation, while Best Sound Mixing recognizes how everything you hear is artfully balanced. Or, to put a finer point on it, the films with gunshots and explosions tend to fare best here, so expect several action films to contend.

A musical wouldn’t work without excellent sound mixing, so La La Land has a real shot here. I’d also add Sully to the mix, simply for its suspenseful crash sequence.

Best Documentary FeatureO.J.: Made in America13thWeinerCamerapersonFire at Sea

There are a whole lot of superlative films competing in this category and you could make a strong second five after this collection, too. A dark-horse pick: I Am Not Your Negro, which seems to be gaining late momentum.

Best Animated Feature FilmZootopiaMoanaKubo and the Two StringsThe Red TurtleMy Life As a Zucchini

While Finding Dory was the biggest blockbuster of them all, I suspect the animation branch will only dole out two slots to Disney, and they’ll pick the studio’s non-sequels.