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Reframing the Future
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History and Warhttps://visionforesightstrategy.wordpress.com/2017/01/13/history-and-war/
https://visionforesightstrategy.wordpress.com/2017/01/13/history-and-war/#respondFri, 13 Jan 2017 15:15:29 +0000http://visionforesightstrategy.wordpress.com/?p=1093The recent War on the Rocks podcast, World Wars and the Craft of History, featuring Michael S. Neiberg, was an interesting and relatively short segment (at least it seemed to go by fast while sitting in traffic!) talking about Neiberg’s work studying WWI and America’s involvement in it.

One of the things that I enjoyed hearing was Neiberg’s comments on the importance of domestic context and domestic politics in shaping the country’s involvement in some of these great wars. A useful reminder that interventions abroad are of course hugely shaped by our “internal” context.

]]>https://visionforesightstrategy.wordpress.com/2017/01/13/history-and-war/feed/0richardl91Monthly Scan Hits and Newshttps://visionforesightstrategy.wordpress.com/2017/01/10/monthly-scan-hits-and-news/
https://visionforesightstrategy.wordpress.com/2017/01/10/monthly-scan-hits-and-news/#respondTue, 10 Jan 2017 12:05:59 +0000http://visionforesightstrategy.wordpress.com/?p=1080Each month VFS publishes a monthly newsletter in which we share recent writings and publications, thought-provoking scan hits, and news about company goings on. We currently have three editions of the newsletter:

Political Futures: focused on domains such as the futures of governance and of conflict and security

Economic Futures: having a more business and economic focus

Learning Futures: looking at things related to the futures of education and learning

Subscribe to our newsletter today

]]>https://visionforesightstrategy.wordpress.com/2017/01/10/monthly-scan-hits-and-news/feed/0richardl91newspaper3Crowded Seas: Part 2https://visionforesightstrategy.wordpress.com/2017/01/07/crowded-seas-part-2/
https://visionforesightstrategy.wordpress.com/2017/01/07/crowded-seas-part-2/#respondSat, 07 Jan 2017 17:51:57 +0000http://visionforesightstrategy.wordpress.com/?p=1067Part 2 of the three part #CrowdedSeas fiction and futures project is now available at CIMSEC. Written by Scott Cheney-Peters and Richard Lum, and using both fiction and foresight, the project is exploring the future of security in the maritime domain in the 2030-2050 time horizon.

Part 1 of Crowded Seas was published as part of the Project for the Study of the 21st Century’s (PS21) Imagining 2030 series.

]]>https://visionforesightstrategy.wordpress.com/2017/01/07/crowded-seas-part-2/feed/0richardl91ScenarioD4 Quick and Clean Scenarios for the New Yearhttps://visionforesightstrategy.wordpress.com/2017/01/04/4-quick-and-clean-scenarios-for-the-new-year/
https://visionforesightstrategy.wordpress.com/2017/01/04/4-quick-and-clean-scenarios-for-the-new-year/#respondWed, 04 Jan 2017 18:30:53 +0000http://visionforesightstrategy.wordpress.com/?p=1030Now that both feet are firmly planted in the New Year, it’s time to share our 2017 “Quick and Clean” scenarios for conflict and security. Using the quick and clean scenario framework from the 4 Steps model (see below the line), we have quickly developed four scenarios about conflict and security looking out over the next ten years.

As with all good scenario work, these scenarios do not attempt to predict the precise future the world we come to experience in 10 years’ time; rather they are forecasts of logical possible futures. In particular, these annual Quick and Clean Scenarios use current top of mind issues (TOMI) to forecast different pathways the world could follow in the coming decade.

As an exercise, the Quick and Clean Scenarios are shared to: a) help frame thinking about the future, and; b) to help provoke more critical thinking about the many trends and emerging issues (TEI), emergent patterns, and straight up black swans that may ultimately come to play significant roles in shaping the world in the years ahead. Collectively, the scenarios are a reminder that no matter what issues currently dominate our thinking, over the long term other forces and dynamics always play important shaping roles.

]]>https://visionforesightstrategy.wordpress.com/2017/01/04/4-quick-and-clean-scenarios-for-the-new-year/feed/0richardl91scenarios24 Steps to the Future for the New Yearhttps://visionforesightstrategy.wordpress.com/2017/01/02/4-steps-to-the-future-for-the-new-year/
https://visionforesightstrategy.wordpress.com/2017/01/02/4-steps-to-the-future-for-the-new-year/#respondMon, 02 Jan 2017 18:27:18 +0000http://visionforesightstrategy.wordpress.com/?p=1008Happy New Year!

Now that we’ve hit our shiny New Year, it’s a great time to give a shout out for my book, 4 Steps to the Future: A Quick and Clean Guide to Creating Foresight. I published 4 Steps last year as an easy-to-use guide for generating foresight and I’m very grateful for the wonderful reviews and endorsements it’s been getting.

If you’re looking for a new way to frame your organization’s thinking about “the future” and if you’re looking for some new tools for conducting good foresight, then you really should check out 4 Steps.

]]>https://visionforesightstrategy.wordpress.com/2017/01/02/4-steps-to-the-future-for-the-new-year/feed/0richardl91graphic54 Ways to “Get” Strategic Thinkinghttps://visionforesightstrategy.wordpress.com/2016/12/30/4-ways-to-get-strategic-thinking/
https://visionforesightstrategy.wordpress.com/2016/12/30/4-ways-to-get-strategic-thinking/#respondFri, 30 Dec 2016 17:24:01 +0000http://visionforesightstrategy.wordpress.com/?p=988It’s that time of the year again: time to reflect on past accomplishments (and disappointments, let’s be honest) and time to look forward with renewed hope to the new year. Inevitably, this time of year sees many of us looking for prognostications about what the new year will bring as well as new tools and concepts for us to use as we do our own planning and prognosticating.

And so it is with good holiday cheer that I offer up Lum’s Guide to Strategic Thinking. It is a short, quick read that will help you get into that “strategic thinking” frame of mind. Fans of my 4 Steps to the Future book will find this zippy read written in the same easy-to-play-with vein.

]]>https://visionforesightstrategy.wordpress.com/2016/12/30/4-ways-to-get-strategic-thinking/feed/0richardl91icons-horizontalEthical Robot Designhttps://visionforesightstrategy.wordpress.com/2016/09/25/ethical-robot-design/
https://visionforesightstrategy.wordpress.com/2016/09/25/ethical-robot-design/#respondSun, 25 Sep 2016 19:00:28 +0000http://visionforesightstrategy.wordpress.com/?p=986A recent article in The Guardian cited an April 2016 report from the British Standards Institute that attempts to lay out guidelines for the ethical design and use of robotics. The report itself has to be purchased (£158), but the post lists a few of the areas it addresses:

robot deception

robot addiction

self-learning systems exceeding their remits

The article claims that this report is the first of its kind. If that’s the case, we should expect an increasing number of such attempts to develop ethical frameworks for machines, writ large. We would expect something of an exponential increase in attention and initiatives on ethics and law regarding machines in all their forms over the next decade.

]]>https://visionforesightstrategy.wordpress.com/2016/09/25/ethical-robot-design/feed/0richardl91Blurring Reality in the South China Seahttps://visionforesightstrategy.wordpress.com/2016/09/24/blurring-reality-in-the-south-china-sea/
https://visionforesightstrategy.wordpress.com/2016/09/24/blurring-reality-in-the-south-china-sea/#respondSat, 24 Sep 2016 17:00:08 +0000http://visionforesightstrategy.wordpress.com/?p=983A piece yesterday noted that Taiwan asked Google to blur its satellite images of one of its islets in the South China Sea. This is not a surprising thing, and it reminds us how much we are becoming dependent on – or simply impact by – the various layers of digitally mediated reality.

Taiping Island (Itu Aba), Google Maps 2016-9-22

One has to wonder how similar requests for “blurring” reality might evolve as augmented and virtual realities continue to develop and become more mainstream.

]]>https://visionforesightstrategy.wordpress.com/2016/09/24/blurring-reality-in-the-south-china-sea/feed/0richardl91taiping-island-screen-cap-google-maps-2016-9-22Anticipating Actor Adaptation to Disruptionhttps://visionforesightstrategy.wordpress.com/2016/09/23/anticipating-actor-adaptation-to-disruption/
https://visionforesightstrategy.wordpress.com/2016/09/23/anticipating-actor-adaptation-to-disruption/#respondFri, 23 Sep 2016 17:00:51 +0000http://visionforesightstrategy.wordpress.com/?p=981An article this morning in Claims Journal online entitled, “Autonomous Cars’ Effect on Auto, Cyber Insurance” reminds us that one of the reasons we sometimes get forecasts wrong is that we fail to anticipate how changes – no matter how disruptive – inevitably feedback and drive attempts to adapt to the change.

The impact of self-driving vehicles on auto insurance is a good example. My of us intuitively expect traditional auto insurance to take a big hit, and apparently the industry experts do as well. But this, of course, does not equal the end of P&C insurance players; they will simply follow their natural business self-interest and adapt by developing new lines of business. As in other historical examples, even the very technology that is creating the disruption offers creative companies opportunities for new products and services.

In this case, insurers are now looking forward to things like insurance for vehicle hacking incidents and an expansion of commercial auto insurance for fleets of self-driving cars.

]]>https://visionforesightstrategy.wordpress.com/2016/09/23/anticipating-actor-adaptation-to-disruption/feed/0richardl91Futures Thinking in Workforcehttps://visionforesightstrategy.wordpress.com/2016/09/22/futures-thinking-in-workforce/
https://visionforesightstrategy.wordpress.com/2016/09/22/futures-thinking-in-workforce/#respondThu, 22 Sep 2016 18:21:06 +0000http://visionforesightstrategy.wordpress.com/?p=979Back in July Dr. Lum had the pleasure of once again being on a National Association of Workforce Boards podcast with CEO Ron Painter. Check it out below.
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