Baseball Talk Philadelphia

March 13, 2015

Today was a game of young guns for the Phillies, with Joely Rodriguez getting the start for the Phillies (5-4-1) against the Tampa Bay Rays. Rodriguez came over from the Pittsburgh organization in the Antonio Bastardo trade.

Rodriguez ran into some trouble in the first after allowing a one out walk to Desmond Jennings. Asdrubal Cabrera followed with a ground out to Freddy Galvis who threw it to Cesar Hernandez covering second. Hernandez then air mailed the throw to first allowing Cabrera to move to second base. Evan Longoria capitalized on the error and drove in Cabrera with a single to center.

After three dominant innings by Chris Archer, the Phillies broke threw in the fourth. Chase Utley had first hit of the spring to lead off the inning. Ryan Howard got a hold of one in the next at bat for his first home run of the spring. This would give the Phillies the lead and be it for the runs today.

Offensively, the Phillies were relatively quiet again today with the exception of the bomb by Howard. In the fifth the Phillies had bases loaded and two outs and failed to capitalize with Howard popping out to third. Pitching and defense was relatively strong today with the exception of the two-out error by Cesar Hernandez early in the game. Hernandez is normally a soundly strong defender. Phillies had strong outings by Rodriguez, Biddle, Martin, Jimenez, Diekman, and De Fratus were what ultimately gave the Phillies the win.

Notable performances came from Chase Utley getting a hit in first start of the spring and Ryan Howard hitting his first home run of the spring. Revere, Asche, and Brown also had hits in the game.

Saturday the Phillies will head to Lakeland, FL to face the Tigers at 1:05pm. Aaron Harang will get his second start of the spring. Tigers will send Anibal Sanchez to the hill to face Harang.

March 06, 2015

Jim Murphy, the seven-year Phillies minor leaguer, is "done playing" baseball at the age of 29. Jay Floyd of PhoulBallz.com caught up with the first baseman of the 2014 Iron Pigs, and Murphy shed some light on his decision.

The Phillies took Murphy in the seventeenth round of the 2008 MLB Draft. In 2008, Murphy saw time in the Gulf Coast League and with both Williamsport and Clearwater, recording an overall .372 on-base percentage with 5 home runs and 30 RBIs. Through the 2012 season, he played with both Lakewood and Clearwater, and saw his power numbers jump. Murphy collected 59 home runs and 140 extra-base hits in that four-year span, earning him a spot on the 2013 Reading Fightin Phils. A .352 OBP with 23 home runs and 26 extra-base hits that year helped Murphy jump once again, reaching the Lehigh Valley Iron Pigs in a contract season. With a dip in power numbers and batting average, the Phillies elected not to bring Murphy back.

Now a free agent, Murphy is able to sign with any team. However, as Floyd points out, he does not wish to play in the independent leagues. There is still the possibility Murphy's career resumes in the next season or two, but coaching seems to be the path he's heading down.

Murphy has long been viewed as a player that could one day have a future in coaching. Through his career, he'd regularly spend time during off-seasons working at youth clinics and told me a few winters back that he would like to stay in the game after his playing days were over, whether as a coach or by working in the front office for a team. [Floyd]

February 19, 2015

Well-documented has been the strenuous process of Ruben Amaro Jr. trying to find the perfect partner in hopes of trading away the services of left-hander Cole Hamels. With the team headed into a several-year-long rebuilding process, moving the 2008 World Series Most Valuable Player seems to be the most sensible way of bringing in some important building blocks. Up until yesterday, we heard very little from the organization regarding the Hamels situation. Then, an article from Bob Nightengale of USA Today surfaced, revealing Cole's feelings on the team and his future.

To summarize, the Phillies' long-time starting pitcher wants only to win in the second half of his career, and knows that that won't happen in Philadelphia. While everything he said was truthful, it was still surprising to hear Hamels say it so plainly. For more on that facet of the article, check out Erik's post from yesterday.

Later on in the article is a particular piece of information that has been somewhat ignored. Nightengale reveals that, in discussing a trade with other organizations, Ruben Amaro Jr. received a particular offer from the San Diego Padres. Said offer would have included outfielder Hunter Renfroe and catcher Austin Hedges. Obviously, Amaro denied the offer, wanting more for the Phillies' crown jewel. Initially, two prospects doesn't seem to be enough to acquire a pitcher of Hamels' caliber. However, a closer look may change some minds.

Let's first take a look at Hunter Renfroe. Despite being drafted late in the 2010 MLB Draft, Renfroe decided to go play college baseball for Mississippi State University. He won the 2013 C Spire Ferriss Trophy, given annually to Mississippi's best collegiate baseball player. Later that year, the Padres selected Renfroe with the thirteenth overall pick in the MLB Draft. Since being drafted, the 23-year-old has played for four different affiliates of the Padres, performing moderately well with each.

In 2013, Renfroe played right field for both the Eugene Emeralds and the Fort Wayne TinCaps, both Single A representatives for San Diego. With 43 total games played, he accumulated 46 hits, 14 doubles, and 6 home runs with an on-base percentage of .308 and a walk rate just under 5%. 2014 saw an overall improvement, though. Now with 129 games played (a quarter of which now in center field), 134 hits, 33 doubles, 3 triples, 21 homeruns, an OBP of .342 and a wak rate of 9.34%, all for A+ and AA teams (Lake Elsinore and San Antonio).

Philadelphia's outfield situation alone is enough to warrant Hunter coming to the Phillies organization (Renfroe, not this guy). While projections are always difficult to pinpoint, Renfroe already seems poised to be a low-mid level power bat with an escalating ability to get on base often. As far as his current ranking sits, he is Baseball America's #3 prospect in the Padres' organization, while Baseball Prospectus has him #2. MLB.com has Renfroe as the #48 prospect in all of baseball, and BP has him at #50. According to MLB's rankings, the outfielder's biggest positives are his power and arm strength, with 13 assists last season recorded. For more, check out his bio here.

The Phillies current best outfield prospect is certainly up for debate. Roman Quinn has played some of his games in center field, but has only his OBP and speed going for him currently. Kelly Dugan can get on base as well, but also seems to lack another major plus. Carlos Tocci struggles to reach a .300 OBP, and has now power to speak of. Bringing in Hunter Renfroe instantly makes him the highest rated outfield prospect in the Phillies organization.

The other rumored trade bait is catcher Austin Hedges. Hedges took a bit of a different path to the Padres' organization, signing with them during the 2011 MLB Draft out of Junipero Serra Catholic High School, despite having committed to UCLA. After being taken in the second round, Hedges, also 23 years old, jumped to the Arizona League. He'd then move up through the ranks, now having played for five different teams in the system.

In 2012, Hedges' first full season, he saw action in 96 total games for the TinCaps. With all of those games coming as the team's catcher, he collected 94 hits, with 28 doubles, 10 home runs, a .334 OBP and a 6.1% walk rate. Hedges played for three teams, Peoria Javelinas (AZFL), Lake Elsinore Storm, and San Antonio Missions, during the 2013 season. The numbers did not change much, with Hedges playing in 101 games. 93 hits, 30 doubles, just four home runs, a .333 OBP and a 8.2% made up his campaign. Just last season, though, the catcher saw a dip in production. In 113 games for SA, his hit total remained level at 96, while his doubles dropped to 19. 6 home runs remained about the same as well, but his averages saw the most significant difference. A .268 OBP is a sharp decline from the previous two seasons, and a walk rate of just 5% causes some head scratching.

Despite the drop in production, Hedges remains in high praise around baseball. He comes in at #4 on Baseball America's Top Ten Padre Prospect list, and at #1 on Baseball Prospectus'. MLB.com has him ranked #51 league-wide, while BP has him sitting at #23. With the little reliability that can be placed on such rankings, we can still see there is a general consensus that Hedges' has the chance to be a stellar major leaguer and can easily bounce back from the 2014 fallback. Taking a look at the Phillies' current situation, Carlos Ruiz will continue to start for the team in 2015. In the future, though, Cameron Rupp seems to be the current replacement, considering Tommy Joseph's struggles with concussions. The addition of such a prime catching prospect could be vital to a rebuild.

We've heard on multiple occasions that the Phillies will only make a deal with the Boston Red Sox if catcher Blake Swihart is involved. A comparison of Swihart and Hedges seems to point to Swihart being the more talented catching prospect. At such young ages, however, the possibility of either guy becoming major league All-Stars is relatively equal. Swihart seems to have the advantage mainly in on-base percentage, with the rest of the statistics hanging on the fence.

While the team may covet Swihart, what else could they realistically receive from Boston? They're already so heavily in favor of keeping him around, so if they were ever to be ready to let him go, they'd be less inclined to give up any other above-average prospect. In San Diego's case, they were prepared to not only part ways with a catcher of high praise, but an outfielder with a similar respect.

Talking prospects is always such a difficult task. Rankings and projections are hard to nail, but the discussion is always entertaining. In this case, we know Cole Hamels is on his way out of Philadelphia sooner rather than later. We don't know where quite yet, but it is in the foreseeable future. However, we do know that the Padres are willing to deal both young players, and in all honesty, should already have.

Perhaps Amaro was looking for a third name in the deal. In such a case, it isn't out of the realm of possibility to ask for someone like outfielder Will Venable, especially when you consider the fact that the Padres have acquired outfielders Matt Kemp, Justin Upton, and Wil Myers all in one offseason. Venable becomes an expendable player, one that could easily transition into the Phillies current outfield.

To wrap up my long-winded point, the reported offer from the San Diego Padres of Austin Hedges and Hunter Renfroe in a package deal for Cole Hamels, especially one that would have also included a respectable third player, should have been accepted. While the Phillies longing for Blake Swihart is understandable, they will not get much more than that from Boston. San Diego was, and presumably is still, willing to cough up two high-level prospects. The future of the Philadelphia Phillies would look quite a bit brighter with two new members of their Top Ten prospect list (and, really, their top five). One can only hope that Ruben Amaro is weaseling his way into a third player in the deal that send Cole Hamels back home.

January 23, 2015

News broke late last night that the Phillies were in "serious discussions" with the Milwaukee Brewers about a deal that would send Phillies closer Jonathan Papelbon to Milwaukee. Today, some details are emerging that can complicate the possible trade. The primary problem: Papelbon's partial no-trade clause, and a $13 million contract option that may easily vest.

The first potential stumbling block would be Papelbon's no-trade list:

48 games is not that unattainable; Papelbon does not need to save those games. If Papelbon finishes a game with a four-run lead or pitches a mop-up inning at the end of the game because he has not worked in a few days, those games would count. Papelbon finished 63 games in the Phillies' 2012 season.

January 13, 2015

Two unsigned Phillies under Phillies control both took a step towards contracts for 2015 today when they filed for arbitration. Outfielder Ben Revere, who is eligible for his second year of arbitration, and Domonic Brown, eligible for the first time, both filed today.

Revere and Brown were among the 175 players across the Major Leagues to file for arbitration before Tuesday's deadline. Arbitration-eligible players are generally those with between three and six years of Major League service.

The next step in the salary arbitration process comes Friday, when the two sides will exchange binding salary proposals for one-year contracts.

Revere has been through the process before. The Phillies and Revere settled on a contract last season with a contract that earned him $1.9 million. Brown earned $550,000 in 2014 for the Phillies.

Revere and Brown may be tough salary calls; both have had their bright spots in their Phillies career, but both of them contributed an OPS near the league bottom. With Rule 5 pickup Odubel Herrera dominating winter play, the Phillies may feel inclined to move either Revere or Brown to clear space for Herrera. Of the two, Revere may be the more likely one, since Brown has little value in trade.'

Laymance reports that each side will exchange salary figures on Friday. Cesar Jimenez, not a sure bet for the major league roster, avoided the process by agreeing to a one-year deal earlier this offseason.

It is unclear when the discussions occurred or just who the Phillies may have been getting in return, but it does seem Marlon Byrd may be on his way out of Philadelphia. Previously, the Cincinnati Reds had not been linked heavily with Byrd, but with their window of opportunity closing, the move makes sense on both ends.

Morosi notes the possibility of the trade still being made, though nothing is imminent. Perhaps the biggest block in reestablishing the move is whatever it was that made the move fall apart. Did one of the teams back out? Were their issues in deciding a return package to Philly? We may never find out, but just what caused the friction may be the reason the Phillies look elsewhere to officially move Marlon Byrd.

November 20, 2014

In the middle of the 2012 season, the end of the Phillies' five-year playoff run, Cole Hamels signed his six-year, $144 million extension with the only team he has ever played for. At the time, anyone with more than just a casual interest in the team, or baseball in general, knew that there was very little chance Hamels would complete the entirety of that extension in red pinstripes. And, as expected, the rumors have escalated each offseason and trade deadline since then. Following this most recent campaign, however, the talks of a trade concerning the left-hander have reached an all-time high, and a deal is very much expected.

But, is it really?

Just after the season wrapped up and the official offseason began, the rumors of Cole Hamels moving, and in particular, to the Boston Red Sox, moved up rapidly. Potential packages between the two teams covered a wide array of players, and several reports focused in on the incredible lengths the Phillies scouting department went to evaluate the Red Sox farm system. Several articles on this website alone are split as to whether or not Boston could send us back a good enough package to compensate for the loss of Hamels. While Hamels doesn't necessarily receive the national attention as some of the other top lefties, he should still bring in a hefty return. That is, if the Phillies are not overvaluing his talents.

In the five year period from 2010 through 2014, Cole Hamels ranks number ten in WAR for starting pitchers during said span. The left-handed pitchers that can be found ahead of Cole include Clayton Kershaw, Cliff Lee, David Price, and Jon Lester. As you probably know, Lester is a free agent this offseason, and played with Boston up through this season's trade deadline, when he was traded to the Oakland Athletics. At the time of the trade, many believed Lester and the Red Sox had planned for the left-hander to return in the offseason on some sort of long-term contract.

Recent reports, though, say that Lester has already turned down a six-year deal in the $110-$120 million range, placing the average annual value at about $20 million. It looks as though Lester will be looking for money in the neighborhood of what the Phillies gave both Cliff Lee and Hamels in the $24-$25 AAV range. Now, Hamels has already told the Phillies that, if he is going to void his no-trade clause, the new team must accept his option year, which would put him under team control for five years and $110 million.

With all that being said, the outlook is something like this. The Red Sox could sign a couple of prospects, a prospect and Yoenis Cespedes, or some other group of players for Hamels at $22 million a year. On the other hand, Boston could sign Jon Lester for around six years and $144-$150 million without giving up any prospects. Recent numbers show that each player is fairly similar in performance to the other, with Lester holding a 22.4 WAR and Hamels a 20.5. Having been born just eleven days apart, Lester and Hamels are nearly exchangeable pieces. In that case, why would the Red Sox want to part ways with players AND pay Hamels that money when they could simply use that money in a deal for Lester?

While Boston has the ability to bring in both guys, if given the choice, Lester comes in as the better option. This then forces the Phillies to look elsewhere. Next on the list is the Chicago Cubs, another team on on the Hamels trail. After they dealt two of their starting pitchers to Oakland last trade deadline, Chicago seemingly has a plethora of prospects they could send to Philly, and are the much better trade partner, according to some. But with time ticking, and names like James Shields and Max Scherzer still available, a deal with a free agent pitcher seems more likely in Chicago before a trade will be put together.

Who's left? Well, really, any team would love to plug Hamels in their rotation at this stage of his career, but few can afford him. The Los Angeles Dodgers and St. Louis Cardinals have been mentioned as potential candidates as well, but not in the same breath as Chicago and Boston. Some have even hinted at the idea of Cole going home to play with the San Diego Padres, though, no one really expects that. At this point, the options for the left hander's services are being spread thin.

Perhaps a team gets desperate in February, with all of the highly sought after starting pitchers off the market. A team just on the verge of a playoff push, but needing to add a player or two to get over the hump. Teams like the Toronto Blue Jays or Chicago White Sox, who may just be in the area between good and pitiful, may feel a move like this could give them the edge they need. Maybe I'm just hoping for unattainable trades, but it is too good not to think about.

This leads me to tell you exactly what will happen with Cole Hamels this offseason.

Nothing.

Come Opening Day 2015, 31-year-old Cole Hamels will be on the mound for the Philadelphia Phillies against, coincidentally, the Boston Red Sox. However, don't hang on the the #35 shirseys for too long. After twelve months of other teams telling him his asking price is too high, Ruben Amaro will finally put together the correct package for Cole Hamels before next year's trade deadline. While it's hard to look that far ahead, it would not surprise me to see Hamels head to Chicago with the Cubs amidst a playoff push. Theo Epstein and his team in Chicago, sitting three games behind the Cardinals and Pirates in the National League Central Division come July 28th, will give the Phillies enough to acquire the lefty, and everyone is (sort of) happy.

Until that date, let us enjoy these last few months we'll have of Hollywood Hamels in Phillies red.

So, it would appear that Hamels is keeping the Red Sox (and likely other teams) off of his trade list for 2015.

The Boston Red Sox would be an ideal destination for Hamels: they have young, talented players, money to spend, and a commitment to winning. They are further along than the Phillies in being ready to contend. But, Hamels knows that he could get something extra out of the Red Sox in exchange for waiving his no-trade clause.

A smart agent would not have it any other way. So, as the Phillies begin trade talks at the general managers meeting this week in Phoenix, Arizona, expect to find out that Hamels' nine-team approved trade destinations will include teams like the Miami Marlins and Tampa Bay Rays, both of whom would never trade for Hamels.

September 25, 2014

Last night was Kyle Kendrick's last start as a Philadelphia Phillie, though I hope it's not his last appearance. Kendrick is at 199 innings on the year, so I hope that Ryne Sandberg finds a way to get him an inning in the last four games.

Kendrick by no means had a good year, but he does lead the team with ten wins on what was a durable season, if nothing more. After bursting onto the scene in 2007 and being a huge part of the 2007 and 2008 runs, Kendrick took a step back to AAA in 2009, before returning and playing a big role in 2010 and 2011. Kendrick was never a great pitcher, but was able to take the ball every fifth day, stay healthy, and turn in respectable, inning-eating appearances.

Kendrick won't be the first name that rolls off of our tongue when asked about the five year run of greatness the Phillies put up, nor should he be. Don't forget him though as he leaves after this season, as the contributions he put up were really important to this team having the success that it did. There's a lot to be said about a healthy, durable fifth starter type. Kendrick fits that mold, and did so without ever causing any issues in Philadelphia.

September 24, 2014

The list of complications with this year's Phillies club is relatively extensive. One of those issues, a reoccurring symptom for a majority of the season, is the team's failure to string together an offensive output. That particular hindrance shown once more last evening, with the Phils unable to give any sort of support to their ace, Cole Hamels. Despite the lefty's two-run performance, Miami's pitching staff was able to shut out Philadelphia en route to a 2-0 victory. Tonight, with Kyle Kendrick possibly making his final start in a Phillies uniform, the offense got off to the same difficult start against Marlin Brad Hand.

The Game: Through inning six, much like the beginning of last night's ballgame, both pitchers were dominant. The Marlins, despite a pair of doubles and a triple, had nothing for Kyle Kendrick. Kendrick was able to collect just a single strikeout in the first two thirds of the game, but did record a total of twelve groundouts against the opposition. Brad Hand had some similar numbers, striking out one more but walking two batters. It took until the seventh inning for either squad to put up an offensive effort.

Darin Ruf walked to begin the seventh, but outs by both Wil Nieves and Freddy Galvis left him on board with two away. Then, in maybe his last heroic effort in Phillies red, Kyle Kendrick lifted the first pitch of his at bat into the left field gap for an RBI double. Ruf scored to give the visiting club the 1-0 lead. Kendrick would give that run right back in the home half of the inning, though, with doubled to both Garrett Jones and Enrique Hernandez. Now moving into the eighth, the score stood at 1-1.

Chris Hatcher replaced Hand in the inning, and immediately served up a Maikel Franco single. Franco would move up to second on a Chase Utley ground out. Following Ryan Howard's walk, Marlon Byrd singled to bring Franco around to score. With the Phillies now ahead 2-1, Ken Giles pitched a scoreless eighth. Then, fresh off of his suspension, Jonathan Papelbon returned with a scoreless ninth, earning the save and handing Kyle Kendrick his tenth win of the season.

Notable Offensive Performances

Maikel Franco: 2-for-5, 1 R, 1 K

Darin Ruf: 1-for-3, 1 R, 1 BB

Marlon Byrd: 2-for-4, 1 RBI

Up Next: David Buchanan makes his final 2014 appearance, facing off against Tom Koehler in Miami. The Phillies and Marlins will finish off their season series at 4:10 PM eastern time tomorrow afternoon.