Due to circumstances beyond our control (health issues), we had to reduce
the number of SKYWARN classes this spring. However, I was still able to conduct
13 classes with about 480 total attendees. Thanks to all of you for your support,
help and understanding this spring. We will probably conduct some classes
this fall and I will start soliciting particular counties about mid-summer.
We also had our "first ever" Advanced SKYWARN training class held at CaliforniaUniversity. The reviews seemed
rather good. The class is much more rigorous than the basic course and covers
some pretty intense subjects such as: Shear, Buoyancy, the hodograph, the
Skew-T Log p chart, radar principles and more. We may offer a class or two
next time around but anyone desiring to take the advanced class should take
the basic class as a prerequisite. Remember, the advanced class is not
for beginners and covers some very heavy duty material.

ABOVE NORMAL ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON
PREDICTIED

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) predicts 13 to 17
named storms this year with 7 to 10 becoming hurricanes. Three to 5 could become
major hurricanes of Category 3 strength or greater. We are forecasting that
there is at least a 75% chance of above normal tropical activity. A normal
hurricane season brings 11 named storms, with 6 becoming hurricanes and two
attaining major status.

Reasons for the above average year include the following: a continuation
of the ongoing multi-decadal signal (the set of ocean and atmospheric conditions
that spawn increased Atlantic hurricane activity), warmer-than-normal sea
surface temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean, and a La
Nina episode. Remember last year when all forecasts also touted an above normal
year and they all proved to be too high. The largest factor diminishing the
number and strength of Atlantic Hurricanes was El Nino. Typically, in an El
Nino event, the winds high in the atmospheric above the equatorial Atlantic
tend to be rather strong. This has a tendency to rip hurricanes apart and
actually be a hostile environment for hurricane formation. On the other hand,
La Nina tends to be associated with more tranquil high level winds which favor
hurricane development. The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through
November 30.

THE EF SCALE WAS INSTITUTED IN FEBRUARY
2007

The National Weather Service (NWS) instituted the EF Scale for tornadoes on
February 1st. The EF Scale allows for a more detailed analysis and
better correlation between damage and wind speed.

We had our first EF tornado this spring on May
1st. About 6:15 PM an EF0 tornado touched down in Mercer
County, Pennsylvania. There
was a sporadic damage path about 4 miles in length. The maximum width was
about 100 yards and the estimated maximum winds were about 75 mph. (For more
information on the EF Scale see www.spc.noaa.gov/efscale)

Over the past 10 years our County Warning Area
(CWA) has averaged 4 to 5 tornadoes per year. Last year (2006), there were two
confirmed tornadoes. One occurred on June 22nd in
Tuscarawas County,
Ohio (F1) and the other in
Westmoreland County,
Pennsylvania (F1) on December
1st.

NOAA WEATHER RADIO (NWR)

If anyone notices that one of
our NWR transmitters is experiencing a problem, we would appreciate a call. You
can use the SKYWARN number.

STORMREADY UPDATE

On May 10th, 2007, WestmorelandCounty became the 10th
county in the county warning area of NWS Pittsburgh to be recognized as StormReady.
The other counties/major city include: Allegheny County,
PA, The City of Pittsburgh, Fayette
County, PA, Mercer
County, PA, Monongalia
County, WV, Ohio
County, WV, Preston
County, WV, Venango
County, PA, Washington
County, PA.

E-SPOTTER IS HERE!

E-SPOTTER
is an Internet based program which allows spotters to send in reports directly
to the NWS office. We have activated the program for the NWS Pittsburgh office.
If you are a trained SKYWARN spotter for the
Pittsburgh NWS office, you can register at http://espotter.weather.gov/. You can
then fill out either the Severe Weather Report Form or Winter Weather Report
Form online and submit them to us in near real-time. If you remain logged into
E-SPOTTER, once we acknowledge your report, you will get an indication that your
report has been received on the screen. Please try to concentrate on those
reporting items that we stress in the SKYWARN class (also contained in this
newsletter).

There
will be times when we cannot respond to your reports immediately because of
workload or warning priorities. If you think your report is critical and very
time sensitive, call us on the toll-free number. Please do not send an E-SPOTTER
report via the Internet and then follow-up with a telephone call. This will
actually double our workload.

NWS
Pittsburgh SKYWARNers who live in Pennsylvania
please see the letter below:

FROST - a year-round experience in
Pennsylvania!

The
PennsylvaniaState Climate Office has initiated a new
observation program known as FROST (Frost, Rain, Optics,
Snow and Thunder). This program will be composed of a network of
volunteers who will take daily observations and document significant weather
events. These observations will be recorded through an easy-to-use web based
entry form. We are specifically looking for individuals not already in a weather
network.
Our goal is to gather the data from as many parts of
Pennsylvania as we can find, especially in lesser
populated areas. This data will be collected, assessed and displayed in an
easily accessible format on the CoCoRaHS website which can be found at http://www.cocorahs.org/.
Each
volunteer is requested to record data in the following categories: Daily Rain,
Intense Rain, Number of Thunder Claps, Daily Snow, Snowflake Shape, Optical
Effects and occurrences of frost. Volunteers receive online training with
instructions and an occasional training seminar offered in specified locations
in the state. Each volunteer will receive a packet with instructions on
instrument siting and measurement techniques. The FROST web site is at http://climate.met.psu.edu/data/frost/.
All new volunteers will find reporting and data entry procedures on the CoCoRaHS
website.
Since the program has just begun, the PA Climate Office is still in the process
of recruiting volunteers. Each volunteer will be providing valuable information
that will be used to expand our climatological record as well as verify daily
forecasts. We are expecting to award the first dozen volunteers from NWS
contacts a free rain gauge! So, please spread the word to help out your state
climate office. Email psc@mail.meteo.psu.edu today if you
have any questions.

Sincerely,

The PA State Climate
Office

STORM BASED WARNINGS WILL BE COMING IN OCTOBER!

Currently,
the NWS issues warnings for entire counties. However, as of October 1st, 2007, we will switch from
county-based warnings to storm-based warnings. This means that we will issue
discrete polygons (or boxes) which will cover a specific area. We will no longer
be concerned with political boundaries (county boundaries) but rather, the area
which will be impacted by the particular severe thunderstorm cell.
Experimentation at several NWS offices has indicated that the total area warned
was reduced by 73%. Additionally, the number of towns warned were reduced by
70%. This will be a significant change in the way we warn for severe weather. At
the same time, it will even increase the importance of SKYWARN reports. We will
be searching for verification in each warning polygon.

LIGHTNING SAFETY AWARENESS WEEK JUNE 24-30, 2007

Lightning has killed at least 8 people in the
U.S. since
March 1st, 2007.
In an average year, lightning kills more people than tornadoes and hurricanes
combined. Almost all lightning-related
casualties can be prevented through education and personal responsibility. Many
people are simply not aware of the lightning safety rules and unknowingly put
themselves (or their family) in danger. Check out much more about lightning
safety at www.lightningsafety.noaa.gov.

THE LONGRANGE SUMMER AND FALL FORECAST

Our
long range summer forecast calls for a better than average chance of above
normal temperatures for June, July and August. Meanwhile, we have equal chances
of seeing above or below normal precipitation. These same trends continue into
the fall (September, October, and November). (see the
ClimatePredictionsCenters web site at
www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov)

YOUR DATA NOT JUST PASSING WIND!

As many of you are aware, the forecasters at the PBZ WFO office
rely on the Skywarn program to provide accurate severe weather reports from
around the county warning area by trained Skywarn Observers.The information you pass along to the office
has an immediate impact on the warning team which leads to better situational
awareness.One function of the Skywarn
program is to provide ground truth to our radar algorithms, and it aids tremendously
in providing us critical information that we use in our warning decision process
(i.e., whether or not to warn for the next downstream county).The method which we use to issue a warning is based on three steps.
First, we conduct an analysis of current conditions upstream of our area,
and whether the forecast conditions tracking across the region could warrant
issuing a watch and later a warning if needed.Second, as we get closer to the event we start with a mesoscale analysis
and factor in vital information from the radar and satellite data.Third, spotters start reporting in key information relating current
conditions for their location.From
your reports,forecasters operating the radar become better
aware of the potential of the thunderstorms and can directly apply this important
information to our decision making process for more timely and accurate warnings.

In order for the forecaster to make an informed decision
about current conditions, it is critical that the weather elements reported
are as accurate as possible.Spotter
reports may differ from the radar data which is critical to the decision making
process.Timeliness is one of the most
important factors that the forecaster will face, so the reliability and accurateness
of the information passed along by the spotter is a serious matter. The difference
for the forecaster operating the radar and hearing a spotter report with "probably
or maybe pea size hail" vs. measured with a ruler pea size hail "is
like night and day." The confidence of the forecaster will increase exponentially
with accurate or measured data to compare with radar signatures.

In addition to the most common visual weather elements reported
to us by our spotters, a growing number of you are adding your personal off-the-shelf-technology
weather equipment into the mix. The National Weather Service and the Citizen
Weather Observer Program (CWOP) are working together to be able to ingest
your data directly into our network of current conditions (surface observations)
reported and updated at 5 and 15 minute intervals.The number of weather elements in these reports
has significantly contributed to our overall situational awareness of the
atmosphere.

If you have a well-sited weather station at your location and
youre interested in providing accurate data for our use, then we would like to
help you get started.The first step
would be to log-on to the CWOP web site. There is a wealth of information on the
program and step-by-step instructions on how to sign-up for the program.http://www.wxqa.com/

REMEMBER THE THINGS WE WOULD LIKE YOU TO
REPORT

Try to report as soon as possible after observing the event
and, remember to be careful! Also, if possible, please give us your location
relative to the closest city or town as well as, your county. (For example,
FayetteCounty,
about 3 miles southeast of Uniontown).

FREEZING RAIN -
As soon as you observe the occurrence of freezing rain or freezing drizzle,
especially if it starts to collect on objects. Call again if the glaze/ice
accumulation exceeds 1/4 inch

THUNDER SNOW - Location
and time of occurrence

WIND SPEEDS - Report
wind speeds greater than 40 mph

RAINFALL - Report
any rainfall in excess of 3/4 inch in an hour

FUNNEL CLOUD - A
"rotating" appendage descending from the base of a cumulonimbus cloud, but
not touching the ground. If possible, always look at the area beneath the
funnel cloud for flying debris. If flying debris is observed, it is a tornado.

TORNADO - Violently
rotating column of air descending from a cumulonimbus cloud and touching the
ground. Look for flying debris. If possible, report any injuries or fatalities.Tornadoes usually rotate counterclockwise, and this can be a good indicator
if what you are observing is a tornado or other meteorological phenomena.However, this is not always true.When
it doubt, report!

HAIL - Report any
size hail. Specify the diameter based on the hail scale (coins)

FLOODING - Report
any flooding you observe, including basement, road, stream, creek, and ice
jam flooding. Report the name of the stream/creek, road number/name (if applicable)
and depth

DAMAGE - Report
all storm-related damage (large branches, fallen trees, structural damage, flood
damage, etc.) Even if it is several days after the event.

Also,
remember that we have a 5-year recertification. We would like all of our
SKYWARNers to attend a class at least once every 5 years.

AN ADDITIONAL TOLL FREE NUMBER YOU ARE
WELCOME TO USE

All
SKYWARNers have our toll free number. In addition, you are welcome to call the
number that appears on our warnings (1-877-633-6772). When you dial this number,
you will not talk to a forecaster, but rather, it will direct you through a menu
for reporting your specific severe weather type. Many times, I think spotters
may be reluctant to call because you may think you are bothering us. This method
will give you another choice in which you will not have to talk to a person, but
rather just use the telephone menu. In the future, we hope to implement an
option that designates you as a trained SKYWARN spotter.

AMATEUR RADIO NOTES

The NWS attended the Breezeshooters Hamfest in
Butler on June 4th. It
was good to see all of you.

Our New 6 meter
radio

The NWS has a new 6-meter radio thanks to Paul (NC8W). The
repeater frequency is 51.640 with a negative 500 KHz split. The PL for the Cross
Creek receiver is 127.3. This radio will probably best serve some of our
Ohio counties and possibly Mercer
in Pennsylvania.Alan (KB3DHC) mentioned that a "voting
receiver" may be installed soon which will simplify things.

Another New Radio
Possible for WX3PIT

We've requested a Kenwood TS-570DG HF radio and associated
antenna. It's unclear whether we will get it, but we're hopeful.

The National Weather Service in
Pittsburgh would like to extend a
thank you to all of the amateur radio operators across our county warning area.
In addition, a special thank you goes to all who volunteer their time at the
forecast office (WX3PIT).

We would also like to thank each county in our County Warning
Area (CWA) for their participation in the Amateur Radio SKYWARN program.It is sometimes difficult to get an amateur
radio operator to staff the station at the National Weather Service.This sometimes results in frustration and the
need for Net Control Stations to report via the SKYWARN Reporting Number.Your patience and assistance is greatly
appreciated.

THANKS TO ALL SKYWARNERS!!!

The National Weather Service would also like to extend a
thank you to all of our SKYWARN members.Your
reports save lives! We appreciate your participation and support.

Thanks also to the members of the NWS Pittsburgh staff who
contributed to this newsletter.