Sunday, October 14, 2012

This article uses the Estimated Wins Produced statistic created by sports economist David Berri. Average players produce 0.100 Estimated Wins per 48 minutes (Est.WP48) because a team of average players form a team with a 0.500 winning percentage. Star players produce +0.200 Est.WP48 and great players produce +0.300 Est.WP48. See the HEAT Produced Page for more information.

Game Notes

LeBron James was the most productive HEAT player with an est. 0.2 wins produced in 20 minutes for 0.451 est.WP48 from 11 points on 63% shooting efficiency, 3 rebounds, 4 assists, 3 steals and no fouls. Unfortunately, Caron Butler was able to match LeBron's production with an est. 0.2 wins produced in 16 minutes for 0.498 est.WP48 from 11 points on 92% shooting efficiency (3-of-4 from 3 point land) because the HEAT didn't give a fuck about defense in this game.

Shaved Monkey Nuts (aka Shane Battier) was the second-most productive HEAT player with an est. 0.1 wins produced in 24 minutes for 0.225 est.WP48 from 6 points on 67% shooting from three, 3 rebounds, 0 turnovers, 0 steals, 0 blocks and 4 fouls. His production was also wiped out by his counterpart thanks to the HEAT's indifference to defense. Blake Griffin produced an est. 0.1 wins in 22 minutes for 0.275 est.WP48 from 13 points on 42% shooting efficiency, 6 offensive rebounds (WTF?), 2 assists and only 1 turnover.

The least productive HEAT players in the game were Mickell Gladness (-0.653 est.WP48) and Chris Bosh (-0.070 est.WP48). The only things Gladness did in his 7 minutes of playing time were miss a shot, turn the ball over and commit a foul. Bosh's numbers looked similar to his stats in the Beijing blowout with 11 points and 5 rebounds, but his shooting efficiency dropped from 60% to 50%.

The big problem for Bosh & Gladness was DeAndre Jordan. The Clippers center produced 0.3 est. wins in 24 minutes for 0.563 est.WP48 from 18 points, 8-8 shooting from the floor, 2-6 shooting from the free throw line, 9 rebounds, 1 assists, 1 turnover, 2 blocks and 2 fouls. Jordan gave the HEAT problems in Beijing, but they limited him to 3-for-4 shooting from the floor and 1-10 shooting from the foul line. As a result, Bosh and Gladness finished the game with 9 fouls and the HEAT finished with 28 as a team. In Shanghai, Bosh and Gladness finished the game with only 5 fouls and the HEAT finished with just 18 as a team. They didn't give a fuck about defense and Jordan punished them as a result.

The one bright spot in the blowout was that Josh Harrellson (0.222 est.WP48), Terrel Harris (0.103 est.WP48) and Norris Cole (0.077 est.WP48) had their most productive games of the preseason, but it's worth noting that Cole's most productive preseason game was still below average (0.100 est.WP48) because he had 6 turnovers.

In the end, though, it probably doesn't matter. Cole has a guaranteed contract and was guaranteed a spot on the roster, plus his contract was just extended for a third year. Harris just signed an endorsement deal with Peak, the Chinese sneaker company and HEAT team sponsor, so it seems like he's guaranteed a spot, too. Harrellson's only shot of making the roster is to take Dexter Pittman's spot and that seems unlikely since Pittman also signed an endorsement deal with Peak.

According to the Miami Herald, Pittman missed the game with a blister on his right toe. Dwyane Wade played 8 minutes on a knee recovering from offseason surgery to promote his new Li-Ning sneakers but Pittman couldn't play to promote his new Peak sneakers? C'mon, son...

The spreadsheet below lists the wins produced stats estimated from the box score of the preseason game in Shanghai.