I have many friends who hang on every word from rich guys on Wall Street: mutual and hedge fund managers, securities firm economists and pooh-bahs, and just plain rich guys who got rich by playing on the Street. But these sources are either salespeople or winners who have little to say about the role of good fortune in their fortunes.

Single-family housing construction was the leading driver of total private residential construction spending in July. On a month-over-month basis, private single-family spending reached $218 billion, up by 2.1 percent over the June estimate and up 15.8 percent year over year.

Since 2012 it had been getting progressively easier to obtain a mortgage — that is, until the first quarter of 2015. According to Zillow’s Mortgage Access Index, access to mortgage credit tightened in the quarter reaching a score of 65 — nearly unchanged from a year ago.