We kick things off this week with a typically contrarian angle that
had the week off in Week 9, followed by last week’s angles with updated
results and this week’s new qualifiers. All of the season-long trends go
back to 2005, as that gives us a large enough sampling without going
back too far to games that may pre-date certain changes in the game that
may make using older games less than ideal.

Also, you will occasionally see angles that refer to Good Teams and/or Bad Teams. We are not using those terms subjectively in those
contexts, but rather, Good Teams are strictly defined as teams that have
won at least 10 of their last 16 games and Bad Teams are defined as
teams that have lost at least 10 of their last 16 games.

Here are the NFL Trends & Angles for Week 10, with all records
being for the last seven seasons since 2005 plus the first nine weeks of
this season. (next post, trying to make sure it doesn't mess up the thread margins).

(Note, I have no affiliation with website where this info is posted, if you want to read it for yourself, it is Insider Angles and is a dot com site)

Angle #1 Play on any Bad Team on the road that was an underdog in each of its last four games (96-64-2, 60.0% ATS): Playing
this angle may take some courage as it often points you to the dregs of
the league, and on the road no less! But that is precisely the point as
these teams often offer great value with no novice bettors wanting any
part of them, as evidenced by the excellent winning percentage over a
nice sampling. This angle lost its only play when it last turned up in
Week 8. Qualifier: St. Louis +14.

Angle #2 Bet against any home team coming off of five or more straight up wins (60-41, 58.8% ATS): Very
few angles epitomize our contrarian mindset as well as this one does!
Bettors love to play hot teams, especially at home, but the oddsmakers
know this and this angle looks to take advantage of teams that are
becoming overvalued. Yes, fading these teams may take some courage at
times, but check out the winning percentage of this angle over a
nice-sized sampling. This angle went 0-1 in Week 9. Qualifier: Houston
+2 at Chicago.

Angle #3Play on any team that lost its last game by 28 or more points (90-56-4, 61.6% ATS): This
angle combines two concepts, as professional teams in any sport do not
like to get embarrassed and oftentimes bounce back strong in their next
game, and also bettors tend to shy away from these teams, often leading
to added line value. This angle won its only play in Week 9. Qualifiers:
St. Louis +14 and Tennessee +7

Angle #4 Play on any road underdog coming off of a road loss (131-73-5, 64.2% ATS): It
used to be that teams playing consecutive road games were great fades,
but as that angle became common knowledge, bookmakers started to adjust
the point spreads for teams playing on the road off of a road game.
Well, based on these long-term results, they may have over-adjusted the
lines, especially in the case of road underdogs, and this angle also
adds in the motivation off wanting to bounce back after a loss. This
angle won its only play in Week 9. Qualifiers: Buffalo +14 and Kansas
City +13-14 (Monday). (Wait as line is going up)

Angle #5 Play on any conference road underdog coming off of a road game (164-106-5, 60.7% ATS): The
logic behind this angle is the same as the previous angle with two
exceptions, as it does not matter if the team playing its second
straight road game won or lost its previous game, and also it is
restricted to conference game only as now facing a familiar foe lessens
the travel effect since the team usually knows how to attack that foe
and what to expect on defense. This angle won its only play in Week 9.
Qualifiers: Buffalo +14 and Kansas City +13-14 (Monday).

Angle #6 Play on any favorite coming off of a bye week (82-44-4, 65.1% ATS): NFL
teams that have had an extra week of preparation time have had a nice
advantage in recent years, and the added time off oftentimes has
resulted in any injured players the teams may have also having extra
recovery time, which is an added bonus. This angle went 2-0 in Week 9.
Qualifiers: New England -13 (contradicion) and San Francisco -12.

Angle NFL chase plays. Since some of my chase plays are 4 games, I will not add any new ones as I don't really advise people to chase 4 games. Some teams such as KC and Philly are really bad. Plus, the system I play calls for a team that is favored to be ML. I don't want you guys to have this kind of risk

With that said, I will finish out the chases already started and not add any new ones, other than 3 game chases. When I first started posting, I had already won several on the first game, then of course that stopped when posting here.

BE AWARE THAT 3 GAME NFL CHASE IS AS RELIABLE AS MY NBA CHASES, whether ML or spread. Seattle won on GM2 last week!

Official 3 game chase, GM1 of 3 Oak +8 (Oak is great as dog)Standard 3 game chase, ML if fave.

Game 3 of 4 Cincy +4.5 (standard 4 game chase, ML if fave)

Game 2 of 4 Buff + 14 (pushed at +12 last week. Modified system calls for one spread + 1 if dog and buy down 1 point if fave.

Game 2 of 4 KC + 13-14, wait as moving up!

(Unfortunately, all results based on CLOSING line, but you should be okay with lines listed above and if you can do better especially on key numbers of 3, 7 10, 14, 21, etc, always do that!)

Compare these angle plays to McShady bye week trendz and you may see some duplicate. These should be stronger plays and maybe a parlay on a couple.

Double angle on KC with no contradictions. KC has NEVER LED a game this year, so it may be a good prop to bet other team score first, but probably juicy!

Angle out till morning!

Voided play, Philly +3.5 (Dallas ML and Philly +3.5 both qualify as plays, so I will wait and pick up the loser for official chase play next week). Philly lost GM1 of 4 Monday night.

Personally, you all know I love to fade Dallas, so I will probably play Philly at least +3.5 or more if I can get it. As an afternoon game, I am hoping for Dallas money to come in.

What exactly are you trying to find? If it has to do with Quarter ML, then I should be able to do it. If it has to do with Quarter ATS, then I doubt it. I don't believe they have NBA Quarter lines in the database.

Hey Nads, how do you search for 1Q ML? I cannot get the correct language.

Angle, thanks for keeping this post going. Been following you guys since the middle of baseball season. Just didn't post. appreciate all the hard work and i hope you guys continue and don't let one bad apple make it hard for all the rest of us who truly appreciate you guys. thanks again.

i have been following these guys since the start of MLB season and i'll tell you this guy that is making problems is not the first. there have been hand fulls of guys coming in here slamming shady and semper and angle. and this isnt the first time shady has left the covers site, and went to twitter. its sad that kids can't handle real talent that shady semper and angle have. just keep posting when you can and make that money like you iknow you always will make KEEP UP THE AWESOME WORK YOU 3 .

Go_Nads- yes a query on NBA teams per quarter ML. The one Jonesin found is that the Blazers have been outscored in the 4Q every game so far. This trend is not coincidense for them their coach does a poor job of rotating out the starters and by the time 4Q hits they are out of gas. Thank you for the help!

"I want winners!" Mike Singletary in the famous rant for the 49ers..unfortunately he didn't survive but he made Davis a player...

You want winners, so do I and I was 3-2 ATS last week in the NFL, 10-2 ATS on my Lakers-Clips season chase...

I like Dallas because they could be easily 5-3 and Philly is even more turnover prone and poorly coached and 3-12 ATS at home recently..

Atl-because their D is way better than NO, they won't turn it over, they know they can end NO's season now...you keep saying they're not that good, they keep COVERING

Jets-too many points in Sea-just when you jump on a trend, I jump off and I get a team off a bye vs a team coming up on one and Sea doesn't play blowout football

Bucs-because Doug Martin is one sick boy and SD is the usual fraud waiting to self destruct for good....such a joke organization lead by an owner with no guts...you reap what you sow, bro....

Lakers-Clips-looks like Phil will be back-I still say that won't fix their real issues-Clips look fine but not sure I will play either today-too much football for me-I wanta to really make sure plays and there's more time in the weekdays...but we'll see

If you are chasing Buff since it officially pushed last week (I lost), play to recover losses only. I see at +13.5 and plus one point would be +14.5. If you wait you may be able to buy one point to 15. It is closing line + 1 point.

Go_Nads- yes a query on NBA teams per quarter ML. The one Jonesin found is that the Blazers have been outscored in the 4Q every game so far. This trend is not coincidense for them their coach does a poor job of rotating out the starters and by the time 4Q hits they are out of gas. Thank you for the help!

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