Referendum vote tells us Tories are divided over David Cameron, not Europe

"It's make up your mind time", John Redwood has just said, now that the Speaker has decided not to accept an amendment to the main motion. There will be be just one vote at 10pm tonight (follow our live blog here). Conservatives must decide whether to vote for or against David Cameron. As Mr Redwood says, there is no middle way. Word from the whips is that we are on course for a 70-strong rebellion, which is wince-making. Peter Hoskin's scorecard earlier helpfully maps out why losing the support of not quite a quarter of his MPs is dire news for Dave. It's more than the number who signed the motion, and just short of the Coalition's overall majority. It's approaching double the size of the biggest ever rebellion on the whipped business of a Tory government (Maastricht, 1993). Actually, the numbers don't really matter once you get beyond 41, which is Dave's worst rebellion so far. The party is now divided. Not about Europe: there is far more agreement now than there was 20 years ago. No, the division is over Mr Cameron. The outcome of the vote, if it's as bad as suggested, tells us Mr Cameron does not command the loyalty of a sizeable chunk of his colleagues. This is ominous.

I said earlier that this was a vote for or against Dave. Some might say it is in fact a vote on the motion, or on Parliament's right to be heard, or our place in Europe. All true, but in political terms, this is about the relationship between Mr Cameron and his MPs. So how does he respond? What does No10 say later tonight, and in the coming days? The various threats of withheld preferment and even deselection cannot be unsaid. William Hague's unwise point comparing the rebels to graffiti vandals has enraged some. The handling of the vote, the perception that he is contemptuous of the Commons and the petition system he put in place, and – rewind further – the departure of Liam Fox and the reshuffle that followed, have all fed a narrative of grievance among Conservatives. Tonight's result will entrench that divison between leader and (not) led. When they contemplate the result and what it means for the party's image, will the two sides back away? Or is this just the beginning of something far more serious?