Monday, July 11, 2016

“Success consists of going from
failure to failure without loss of enthusiasm.”–Winston
Churchill

Notes for Tonight’s Newsletter:

Today
was 'Reaction
Monday' following last Friday's Non-Farm Payroll Report, and we have some
excellent trading
opportunities setting-up for tomorrow; Crude Oil and gold are bearish,
while the S&P and Euro are bullish going into Tuesday's trading session.

Crude Oil is bearish
after completing the measured-move target this evening; Today’s market was back-and-forth
from the beginning, reacting to last Friday's Non-Farm Payroll report with the
bears taking control and finishing the session at the low of day. This market is clearly bearish this evening,
however, the bears reached their measured-move target at what may possibly be a
large trading range for the day.
Although there is room for further downside to the low of the bear
channel, the most reliable trade for the sellers will be after a correction
back to resistance overhead to help them avoid 'selling low'. Buyers need to stay patient and look for
seller-failure at the low of the range, possibly using the high of the channel
as support for their first pullback as they take control back to the high of
the range.

E-mini S&P is
bullish and trading at the lows of a bull spike & channel this evening; The S&P made new all-times once
again today as traders try to anticipate the likelihood of another rate-hike in
2016 after last Friday's somewhat-impressive jobs report. The bulls had control for the entire session
today, starting with a big spike & channel which is now rotating back to
the lows and giving the bulls another chance to re-load on the way back to the
highs. The measured-move, combined with
fresh all-time highs resulted in a rather strong profit-taking selloff to end
the session which will likely result in another attempt from the bears, but we
assume that buyers will be waiting to buy all the dips tomorrow with the goal
of going back to the highs. Sellers have
the opportunity to sell the next test of the moving-average or they can wait
for a breakout-pullback below the 'battle zone' but they need to be careful
because we assume that seller-failure at resistance will be bought aggressively
with a target back to the highs.

Gold is bearish and
trying to finish a re-test of the double-down target this evening; The bulls may have started the
session this morning but that didn’t last very long before the bears quickly
and aggressively took control for the remainder of the session with little
interest from the buyers to finish the day.
The bear wedge tells the sellers to keep looking for opportunities at
resistance levels using buyer-failures and provides them with a short-term
target at 51.8 and a long-term target at 37.5.
One of the most important things to notice is how much support is
lingering at the lows this evening; the double-down, range-low and measured-move
are all waiting as support which will make it difficult for sellers to get into
trades at the lows. Sellers will be
looking for traps at the resistance levels overhead or a strong push through
the lows in order to give them confidence to sell retracements off new
lows. Buyers need to be patient this
evening; they need to look for a failure at the lows or a successful
breakout-pullback above the 1360.8 before they will have any confidence in the
opposite direction.

Euro is bullish and
rotating off the low of a bull channel with a target back to the high this evening; The bulls took control shortly after
the opening-bell in London this morning and got a beautiful trap-low on the way
up to the high of day, high of channel and measured-move targets waiting
overhead. One notable aspect on this
chart is the strength of the bearish pullback going into lunch which was
quickly bought and complete lack of sellers waiting to sell the
moving-average. The bulls will be
looking for opportunities to buy this pullback to the moving-average, or even better,
buy another trap-low below the prior swing with a target back to the high. The sellers need to see a strong break-down
and then must hold a pullback below the channel low if they have any chance to
take control with a target back at today's low.

In today’s psychology lesson, I’m going to keep building on the strategy of using our trading journal , and more specifically, today I wan...

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