Developers have poured more than $2.5 billion into projects along Metro Transit’s 11-mile Green Line light-rail corridor in the past five years.

Previous estimates had pegged spending at $1.7 billion, but construction figures have been revised as permits were granted, said Metropolitan Council officials, who called the new estimate conservative.

How much of that investment can be directly attributed to the allure of light rail, and how much would have happened anyway, without the $957 million transit project in place? That’s a trickier question, and observers are weighing in on both sides.

The 121 projects include construction along the one-mile track shared with the Blue Line, previously known as the Hiawatha Line, in Minneapolis. The list includes Ramsey County’s $243 million Union Depot project in St. Paul’s Lowertown, but not the new Minnesota Vikings stadium or St. Paul Saints ballpark.

Met Council Chairwoman Sue Haigh announced the development figures Wednesday at Episcopal Homes near University and Fairview avenues in St. Paul. Behind her, construction crews continued work on the $45 million addition of 168 senior housing units to community’s already sizable campus.

Episcopal Homes CEO Marvin Plakut said the two new buildings will open in three phases from Nov. 1 to Feb. 1, and they’re mostly already leased. Many seniors have expressed interest in living along the light rail.

“It brings that excitement; it brings that access; it brings that urban nature,” he said.

The project is part of the 12,000 housing units that have been built on the line, which will link downtown St. Paul to downtown Minneapolis beginning June 14.

Some critics have taken issue with the amount of public funding devoted to cleaning up polluted properties for redevelopment or establishing affordable housing on the corridor. Haigh noted that the Met Council has devoted $33 million in Livable Communities grants to 49 projects along the Green Line in the past six years.

Among them, the Met Council issued $1.5 million in grants to a four-story housing and retail development that this year will replace the vacant Midway Chevrolet dealership at Hamline and University avenues in St. Paul.

About 7 percent of the new housing units are classified as affordable, but the vast majority are market-rate, Haigh said.

St. Paul City Council member Russ Stark said persuading skeptics that low- to moderate-income neighborhoods need more affordable housing is often a tough sell.

“We really believe there’s going to be a lot of market-rate units in the next 10 years, and for a lot of people that’s been the hardest point to wrap their heads around,” Stark said. “We think the market is, over time, going to raise prices and rents.”

Haigh said not every project was inspired by the light rail, but she said the proximity of much of the construction to light-rail stations underscores the connection between the $957 million transit project and the “brisk pace” of development.

In Arizona, a new 20-mile, light-rail line between central Phoenix and Tempe drew $3.5 billion in private investment from 2001 to the line’s opening in 2008, according to the Met Council. In Dallas, light rail has attracted $1.5 billion in private real estate development since 1997.

The light-rail project is the Twin Cities’ third passenger line after the Blue Line, which opened between Mall of America and downtown Minneapolis in 2004, and the Northstar commuter line, which opened between Minneapolis and Big Lake in 2009.

The $2.5 billion figure will climb. The construction value of a third of the projects — 43 in total — remains unknown, said Haigh, noting developers are under no obligation to reveal project costs until construction permits are issued.

Developer Rich Pakonen said the rail line was a major factor in his decision to pursue the $46.7 million renovation of the Pioneer-Endicott office buildings in downtown St. Paul into apartments. The buildings, which have been opening in phases over the past year, are almost 80 percent leased.

Much of the construction is residential, and some observers say demand for higher-end apartments has less to do with the light rail and more to do with the increasingly urban tastes of millennials and baby boomers.

St. Paul City Council member Dave Thune noted that luxury units have opened in areas that do not have access to light rail, including the West Side Flats development near Plato Boulevard and the Victoria Park project, off West Seventh Street.

“Suddenly, all over the place, people wanted really nice apartment living. The biggest thing is the market is ready for the kind of apartments downtown we’ve been talking about for a long time,” he said. “Certainly, the light rail doesn’t hurt it.”

Bill Thurmes, board chairman with the Greater St. Paul Building Owners and Managers Association, said development momentum in downtown St. Paul is “moving in a positive direction.”

He pointed to the planned opening of a new Lunds supermarket on Thursday as evidence.

He said the city and state worked cooperatively with downtown businesses and residents to make investments in the Penfield, the upscale apartment complex that houses Lunds, and the Saints ballpark that will open next year in Lowertown. That cooperation is as important, if not more important, than the light rail itself, he said.

Officials Wednesday said the Central Corridor has seen $2.5 billion in investments near its Green Line light-rail route and will likely spur even more. Here are some of the biggest projects being planned:

Frederick Melo was once sued by a reader for $2 million but kept on writing. He came to the Pioneer Press in 2005 and brings a testy East Coast attitude to St. Paul beat reporting. He spent nearly six years covering crime in the Dakota County courts before switching focus to the St. Paul mayor's office, city council, and all things neighborhood-related, from the city's churches to its parks and light rail. A resident of Hamline-Midway, he is married to a Frogtown woman. He Tweets with manic intensity at @FrederickMelo.

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