Friday, October 29, 2010

Washington, D.C. - With pollsters predicting a likely Republican takeover of 50 seats held by Democrats in the House of Representatives, voters polled in 42 key races said they are motivated to vote against the incumbent.

According to a poll taken for “The Hill” newspaper of Washington, D.C., “Forty-three percent of likely voters across these final 10 districts said their member’s years in Congress are a reason to vote against that member this fall. Among independents, 46 percent are holding incumbency against their member of Congress, while an overwhelming number of Republicans are: 65 percent to 17. Only Democrats view incumbency as a net plus — 67 percent to 16.”

A sampling of about 400 voters in District 17 taken over the beginning of the week of Oct. 19-21, shows that voters favor Republican challenger Bill Flores by 52% over Mr. Edwards' 40%. The survey labels the contest as a "Horserace."

Knowledgeable observers with a view from Capitol Hill don't count on revelations that Mr. Flores has been quoted as advocating an upward adjustment of the Social Security retirement age to 70 or the proposed privatization of VA health care to change minds of elderly voters, who favor him by 52% over an approval rating of 33% in the 55 -plus age bracket surveyed. Those who are 35-54 years of age have a 59% approval rating compared to the 29% of those surveyed who prefer Mr. Edwards.

In the 17-34 years of age bracket, 49% of those surveyed said they would vote for Mr. Edwards if the election were held on that day while only 37% favored the Flores candidacy.

Favorable opinions of Mr. Edwards clocked in at 57% over 39% in the 17-34 year-old bracket.

Numbers of those who said they voted for the Republican McCain-Palin Presidential ticket in 2008 remained constant at about 60-40%. In the 55-plus age bracket, 67% expressed disapproval for the President's job performance opposed to 32% who approve, a number only slightly mitigated by the more youthful age of those 17-34 years of age surveyed, who said 37% approved of Mr. Obama's agenda and 57% disapproved.

“Longtime Reps. Allen Boyd (D-Fla.), Chet Edwards (D-Texas) and John Spratt (D-S.C.) are all down by double digits, and each is polling at 40 percent or below. The three have held their congressional seats for 14, 20 and 28 years, respectively,” according to the survey.