Military and Political Analysis of the Donbass Ceasefire Lines

The purpose of this analysis is to consider the present situation in Donbass between the opposing forces and what might take place from here. This evaluation is primarily based on the September 15th map of hostilities and may, therefore, be somewhat out of date.

General Situation

Due in part to the widespread dissemination of photos of Ukrainian punitive battalions wearing Nazi insignia and to reports of their atrocities against civilians, volunteers from all over the world have come to the aid of the Novorossiyan cause, boosting their numbers considerably in August and September. This substantially evened the odds of the conflict, which had initially been heavily in Ukraine’s favor.

Over the course of August, Ukrainian forces lost several brigades and over a hundred armored combat vehicles and artillery pieces, due to these units driving too far into NAF-held territory in an attempt to encircle Lugansk. Instead of encircling the city, they were themselves encircled and pinned down in a pocket called a “cauldron”, referring back to the Battle of Kursk in World War II. In a “cauldron” or “boiler”, the advancing armored forces were slowed down and stopped by defenders, and then encircled from behind to cut off their supply lines. The NAF forces then hammered the encircled battalions with artillery and direct fire until they were either destroyed or ran out of ammunition and surrendered.

Several Ukrainian units were still encircled in pockets inside NAF territory at the beginning of the ceasefire on September 12th and remain dug in their positions.

Reports from the field indicate that Ukraine forces currently number forty thousand combatants while the NAF forces number thirty-two thousand, made up of a mixture of Donbass residents as well as several thousand international volunteers, many of whom are combat veterans of the Russian Army.

Given that the military doctrine requiring requires a 3:1 numerical advantage by the attacking forces, this means that Kiev has lost the numerical superiority needed to decisively win by brute force.

Ukrainian forces have pulled back into a defensive arc from the North of Lugansk circling West and South around to Mariupol on the Azov Sea, and are now digging in.

During the previous three months of the ATO, Ukraine’s primary “punitive” strategy was to batter the civilians into submission by destroying their cities with heavy artillery. As of September 22nd, Kiev has pulled its heavy artillery twenty kilometers behind the defensive line, out of firing range of the Donbass population centers.

The Southern Front

In the final week before the ceasefire, NAF forces succeeded in opening a second front by driving to the Sea of Azov, securing the town of Novoasovsk, and were well on their way to capturing the port of Mariupol. The reasons reported in the mainstream media for this NAF offensive or “second front” were generally mistaken.

The primary motivation for this action was neither a need for sea-based supply lines, nor an alleged desire by Russia to take make a “land bridge to Crimea”. It can be assumed that the NAF are being primarily supplied through volunteers, donations and “voentorg” [ED. E.g. http://www.voentorg.ru/] via the porous border with Russia to their rear. Therefore, possession of the Azov coastline confers no advantage to the NAF in terms of supply lines. The NAF has no navy by which to be supplied.

Russia neither requires nor desires a land bridge to Crimea through southern Ukraine, as has been speculated in the Western media. The deep-water port of Sevastopol is far more efficient for resupplying Crimea than several hundred kilometers of road through hostile territory. Even for land transport, there is a ferry at the Strait of Kerch which gives vehicular access to Crimea directly from Russia without passing through contested territory. It is expected that within a year Russia will complete a bridge over the Kerch Strait. Therefore, the speculations that Russia intends to “seize a land bridge to Crimea” are misguided.

The primary purpose for of the NAF offensive to Azov was to secure their southern flank. This is similar to the “race to the sea” that occurred in World War I after the Battle of the Frontiers.

With the southern flank anchored on the sea, and with sufficient troop strength, the NAF will be in a good position to drive the front forward to the Dnieper River in the coming months, or to hold the front against a Ukrainian offensive. However, the NAF currently has neither the manpower nor the armor to advance to the West.

The Northern Front

The Northern Front is being defended by the NAF “Ghost Brigade”, commanded by Alexey Mozgovoi. Their primary objectives – for the present – include preventing the Ukrainian Army from regaining artillery firing positions capable of bombarding downtown the city centers of Lugansk and Donetsk. It remains important to prevent the Ukrainian forces from breaking through to the encircled battalion in Zhdanovka by driving South of Gorlovka in order to break through to the encircled battalion in Zhdanovka, which would also cut off and encircle the NAF defenders in Gorlovka.

Anatomy of an Impasse

Neither Kiev nor the NAF have the strength to achieve an outright military victory. It remains to be seen if forces coming from outside of Ukraine will tip the balance in favor of one side or the other.

Kiev has thrown away their best military forces and equipment in the disastrous “anti-terrorist operation” (ATO) from May through September. Their professional cadres were decimated and have now been replaced by second and third conscriptions of untrained men, boys, and now, women. The low morale of the Ukrainian Army is evidenced by the hundreds of Ukrainian soldiers and entire combat units that have thrown down their weapons and fled to Russia to surrender. The Ukrainian Air Force has likewise lost over a dozen aircraft to rebel missile fire, and has lost air superiority over the contested region.

Several NATO countries have allegedly begun supplying Ukraine with new weapons. However, merely putting new weapons in the hands of demoralized conscripts is unlikely to substantially improve the situation for Ukraine.

Ukraine has fielded several volunteer battalions, which have gained notoriety by attracting Neo-Nazi volunteers from Scandinavia and Western Europe. However, these ideologically motivated volunteers do not seem, in most cases, to be combat veterans, and the Azov battalion has suffered several notable and embarrassing defeats, including the deaths of certain well-publicized foreign volunteers.

Short of direct NATO intervention, with the commitment of two or more armored divisions, it seems unlikely that Ukraine will be able to put together a task force capable of decisively winning this war. When Poroshenko claimed, for the umpteenth time, that Russia had invaded Ukraine, his goal was to convince NATO to commit ground forces. His recent speech to the joint houses of the US Congress further escalated his desperate calls for direct US military intervention.

Novorossiya Armed Forces

The volunteers who have been swelling the ranks of the NAF are mostly combat veterans who believe in the cause and have come to lend their aid to their “brothers”. The majority of the volunteers are from the sphere of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS; Russian: Содружество Независимых Государств), however, many Western veterans have volunteered as well. This was recently highlighted in the media by a group of French veterans who joined the NAF because they see the movement fighting against Nazis and representing the egalitarian ideals of the French Revolution.

The average NAF soldier has both combat experience and the determination in his heart to win. The NAF also have a majority of the civilian population who support them both at home and in the neighboring regions. Kiev greatly fears a spread of the rebellion to the adjacent regions and it is reported they have sent Sloboda punishment squads into the Southeastern areas to terrorize the population to prevent any further uprising.. However, this tactic may backfire by further polarizing the population against Kiev.

Given the successes that the NAF have enjoyed using guerilla small unit tactics, they can be expected to send Sabotage & Reconnaissance Groups (SRGs) into the neighboring regions to recruit and train militia forces, to in an attempt to achieve their vision of Novorossiya extending from Lugansk to Odessa.

One of the necessary criteria necessary for success to in fighting a long-term guerrilla war is to have a “refugium” in an adjacent country from which the guerrilla force can freely operate and resupply, given that national forces cannot pursue the guerilla forces across the border without creating an international incident. Examples of this principle include the Viet Cong’s successful use of Laos and Cambodia for supply lines in the Vietnam War, as well as the Kurdish Peshmerga’s operations across the borders of Turkey, Syria, Iraq and Iran.

Using guerilla warfare, the NAF may eventually be able to attain their objective of independence for the larger Novorossiya region, provided that Russia continues to allow them to resupply from Russian territory.

Political Conclusions

It has become clear from the many skirmishes and battles since the ceasefire was announced a week ago that Kiev intends to take advantage of the ceasefire to strengthen their position, rescue their pinned units, and beg for international military aid. Poroshenko has publicly admitted that Ukraine cannot win this conflict militarily. Yet, his diplomatic strategy betrays a plan to win by duplicity what he cannot win on the battlefield. He has openly stated that he has no intention to of granting the breakaway provinces what they demand — political autonomy.

Instead, the newly passed law concerning the Donbass region seems to create a military dictatorship or martial law over those these provinces. These are the sorts of terms one might expect a defeated foe to submit to. It seems highly unlikely that the unsubdued provinces regions will accept such terms unless they are sold out by weak-willed political leaders.

In this situation, it is to the NAF’s advantage to accept the ceasefire line that Russian diplomats are trying to get carved into the stone—thus “freezing the conflict on the ground”. The Minsk Agreement calls for a 30 km wide no-heavy-weapons zone along the demarcation line. This is probably good for the Donbass republics because it will keep Ukrainian artillery out of range of Donetsk and Lugansk. However, they have already achieved de facto independence, even if Kiev has not acknowledged it yet.

Poroshenko cannot win with his army—and he knows it—but he has not conceded defeat. The ceasefire has put the conflict on a footing where Poroshenko is able to maneuver via political negotiations. Kiev can be expected to attempt to buy off or assassinate the leaders of the Donbass republics in order to achieve through political subterfuge what they failed to achieve with the sword.

The Ceasefire

Despite the fact that the “ceasefire” has seen continued skirmishes and artillery fire from both sides, Russia can be expected to take the ceasefire in all seriousness because it provides a legal framework from which to negotiate the autonomy or independence of the Donbass.

Russia is suffering economic sanctions from the US/EU despite having opposed the secession of Donetsk and Lugansk from Ukraine. Due to the strong moral support of the Novorossiya Movement by the Russian population, Putin cannot abandon them without losing the support of his own people. Consequently, Russia unofficially supports the NAF by permitting the movement of volunteers and materiel across the border, collection of donations in Russia, and the recruitment and training of new volunteer units on Russian soil.

While not neutral, these actions do not represent a Russian “invasion” any more than China invaded South Vietnam in the Vietnam War. Yes, Russia is clearly enabling the NAF to fight their own battle to defend their territory; but Russian regular army units are not believed by impartial observers to have entered Ukrainian territory.

Why Hasn’t Kiev Conceded?

Though Although Poroshenko’s military has been butchered and humiliated on the battlefield, NATO and the USA have him on a short leash with the IMF bailout loans, and have been pushing Kiev toward the “final solution” since the beginning of this conflict. Prior to the military disaster in early September, Poroshenko had never made any serious attempt to negotiate with the breakaway provinces, preferring to crush them militarily.

The rout of Ukrainian forces by the NAF counter-offensive forced Kiev to the negotiating table, but they are still not willing to talk about autonomy or independence for the Donbass. This intransigent attitude is coming from numerous “strings” attached to the IMF loans and Western aid packages, which require Ukraine not to give up any territory and—at the same time—to subdue the uprising. Without Western backing, Poroshenko would have been forced to the negotiating table long ago.

It is unlikely that we will see an end to this conflict until one of the following scenarios happens:

a) The EU/USA lose the economic ability or political will to continue propping up the Kiev regime, leaving Poroshenko without any money. This could happen if the Dollar loses its status as the world’s reserve and trade currency.

b) DPR & LPR politicians sell their brethren down the river by negotiating a surrender on Kiev’s terms.

Once winter arrives, Kiev will be forced to the bargaining table lest the freezing population of Ukraine will break into openly revolt. Time is on the side of Russia and the Donbass republics. They need only take advantage of the ceasefire to strengthen their defensive positions, secure food and shelter for their civilian population, and wait for cold weather to bring their opponents to their knees.

Land Bridge to Crimea — Kerch is extremely inefficient. There are long waits now for the ferry. I believe that Russia has contracted with the Chinese to actually build this bridge which will cost billions. The Advantage of a Land bridge is the pipes for Gas and Water. Currently Kiev is playing games with the water and gas supply to Crimea. If they seized Mariupol a port on the Sea of Azov would ease the transportation to Crimea and make possible connecting pipes. Now, Russia is planning to implement a more ambitious project – to build a combined automobile and railway bridge over to Crimea. The Kerch Strait Bridge is to be completed by December 16, 2018. One Russian billionaire is talking about building a tunnel to Crimea.

But in any case all these projects take years and currently what exists is inefficient. So the land bridge if they could get it would be the ideal solution – but I still think some sort of bridge or tunnel may be built. So if Russia could seize the Kherson Oblast they would have control of a pumping stations on the border with Crimea.

Russia recently agree to sell Ukraine gas, so the gas-riots are unlikely. Altought Russia is sellings it at a much higher price then before, currently 385, and before 250 something… So I don’t know if this will effect gas prices negativly inside Ukraine.

And Russia said it will increase the price to 400 something, which is the normal price across EU in 6 months.

IIRC Russia agreed to sell gas provided Ukraine prepay the delivery. Ukraine has a huge unpaid bill and they get the delinquent customer treatment. So, officially, Ukraine is not cut off for sanctions and can get the gas if they send the cash. Their problem is they don’t have the cash, hence they don’t get the gas.

They have a similar problem with electricity. Most of their power plants use coal, but the coal mines are in Dombass. They need to import coal to keep the power plants going and they don’t have the cash for that either.

The Chinese would build a combined rail and highway bridge, tunnel. They also have plans for new ports, deeper more modern for Crimea. With gambling and resort building, the Chinese would invest tens of billions if Russia wants it. Naturally, the gas and oil reserves held by Crimea interests the Chinese immensely.

I think tactically, the move to the south by the NAF was to stretch the Ukies. If another offensive began, volunteers from Russia could join in a new cauldron in the south. It also spreads whatever forces come from Odessa (or leak in from Poland to assist the Ukies). A southern front across several hundred kilometers would be paper thin for the Ukies. They could be carved up in a fast moving counter-offensive Russia-supported.

It also lays claim to Mariupol eventually. It also creates problems if NATO were to stick its toe into the Ukie operations. They would be identified and slaughtered by Russian air and artillery. The southern front had great strategic value to be seen clearly later. A classic GO trap.

All this is fine but I think the NAF should storm all those cauldrons to have more troops available .
I especially dont like the Debalstvo concentration of Ukies , it is dangerous .
Sad story for Ukraine .

Article above hints at the possibility Putin could be personally willing to betray the Donbass Russians, but as said above, “Putin cannot abandon them without losing the support of his own people.”

Influential retired Indian Ambassador M K Bhadrakumar suggests Putin and Iran are both about to betray Syria’s Assad and allow his regime to fall …

And let us remember that Russia did in fact totally betray Libya and Qaddafi, Russia signed and approved the ugly UN resolution that led to overthrow of Libya’s government, Qaddafi’s horrid anal rape and killing, tens of thousands of Libyan dead, and Libya a failed state in war and chaos today …

Russia did that in Libya, even tho Putin knew Qaddafi was a major and key pillar of resistance to the Western powers.

Qaddafi was targeted, with Russia’s public consent … because Qaddafi advocated selling oil in non-dollars, independence of Western central banks, and for Africans to have their own currency (whereas now, e.g., 14 African countries have their ‘franc’ directly issued and manipulated by France’s central bank for Western profit)

Here is Bhadrakumar hinting at Assad’s grim future, speaking of how Russia is becoming ineffectual, and how Iran, like Russia’s 5th column, is now kissing the US arse, and dreaming Atlanticist dreams of ‘integration’ with the West –

The Last Speech of Mu’ummar Qaddafi … before he was betrayed and killed with Russia’s public consent for his killers

In the name of Allah, the …beneficent, the merciful…

For 40 years, or was it longer, I can’t remember, I did all I could to give people houses, hospitals, schools, and when they were hungry, I gave them food. I even made Benghazi into farmland from the desert, I stood up to attacks from that cowboy Ronald Reagan, when he killed my adopted orphaned daughter, he was trying to kill me, instead he killed that poor innocent child. Then I helped my brothers and sisters from Africa with money for the African Union.

I did all I could to help people understand the concept of real democracy, where people’s committees ran our country. But that was never enough, as some told me, even people who had 10 room homes, new suits and furniture, were never satisfied, as selfish as they were they wanted more. They told Americans and other visitors, that they needed ‘democracy’ and ‘freedom’ never realising it was a cut-throat system, where the biggest dog eats the rest, but they were enchanted with those words, never realising that in America, there was no free medicine, no free hospitals, no free housing, no free education and no free food, except when people had to beg or go to long lines to get soup.

No, no matter what I did, it was never enough for some, but for others, they knew I was the son of Gamal Abdel Nasser, the only true Arab and Muslim leader we’ve had since Salah-al-Deen, when he claimed the Suez Canal for his people, as I claimed Libya, for my people, it was his footsteps I tried to follow, to keep my people free from colonial domination – from thieves who would steal from us.

Now, I am under attack by the biggest force in military history, my little African son, Obama, wants to kill me, to take away the freedom of our country, to take away our free housing, our free medicine, our free education, our free food, and replace it with American style thievery, called ‘capitalism’, but all of us in the Third World know what that means, it means corporations run the countries, run the world, and the people suffer.

So, there is no alternative for me, I must make my stand, and if Allah wishes, I shall die by following His path, the path that has made our country rich with farmland, with food and health, and even allowed us to help our African and Arab brothers and sisters.

I do not wish to die, but if it comes to that, to save this land, my people, all the thousands who are all my children, then so be it.
Let this testament be my voice to the world, that I stood up to crusader attacks of NATO, stood up to cruelty, stoop up to betrayal, stood up to the West and its colonialist ambitions, and that I stood with my African brothers, my true Arab and Muslim brothers, as a beacon of light.

When others were building castles, I lived in a modest house, and in a tent. I never forgot my youth in Sirte, I did not spend our national treasury foolishly, and like Salah-al-Deen, our great Muslim leader, who rescued Jerusalem for Islam, I took little for myself…

In the West, some have called me ‘mad’, ‘crazy’, but they know the truth yet continue to lie, they know that our land is independent and free, not in the colonial grip, that my vision, my path, is, and has been clear and for my people and that I will fight to my last breath to keep us free, may Allah almighty help us to remain faithful and free.

I think you have forgotten the facts about this. SC res 1970. It called ONLY for a no-fly zone for Benghazi. The reason Russia voted for it, was that it specified a NO-FLY zone over ONE city. HOWEVER, the US and its allies broke the resolution and did regime change. Now of course Russis will never again vote for a resolution with chapter 7 in it or any sort of no-fly zone. Russia protested that the US broke the terms of SC 1970 but the US,UK, France etc. ignored them. The weak UN did NOTHING about the violations of the terms of the resolution.

a) The EU/USA lose the economic ability or political will to continue propping up the Kiev regime, leaving Poroshenko without any money. This could happen if the Dollar loses its status as the world’s reserve and trade currency.

It is a long way for the dollar to loose its status, but the west doesn’t have the will to fund Ukraine. The IMF provide some short term cash, but that will come to an end.

b) DPR & LPR politicians sell their brethren down the river by negotiating a surrender on Kiev’s terms.

The recent polls suggest that the junta will be restructured but not rejected. Some parties in the coalition (eg Svoboda) won’t make the 5% cut off to be in Rada while Porochenko group is likely to get either a majority or a string enough minority to need only one other party in his coalition. That should solve his problem in herding cats.

f) Winter arrives and Kiev is desperate for natural gas.

That will happen.

Short term it seems that a combination of options a, e and f will play out.

All this covert or overt muttering about “selling down the river” does not bode well for the formation of a new republic featuring the rule of law and demonstrating civilian control over a unified military.

I have gone over what reports and analyses I have been able to find from June forward with new eyes and see the political maneuvering that I glided past the first time.

As near as I can tell, the back-stabbing we have to fear comes from the armed forces due to the influence of present or recently past leadership.

Sorry, @Cass, I don’t want to annoy you, but I want to say, that you seem to understand my warnings regarding some despotic and militaristic political developments at Donbas much better now. I am afraid, that the ‘rule of law’ and ‘civilian control’ in the common sense of the terms were and will be suspended for a long time of unconstitutional warfare. It’s the most direct, but also most harsh/brutal kind of warfare, where the civilians (non-combatants) are never asked by the military-political leadership. So, it could be, that this Ukrainian Civil War is developing into an ethnical conflict lead by military-fascist regimes on BOTH sides.

Oh, and can anyone tell me WHY the military wants to advance on Kiev? Do they want to govern a country where they are hated by tens of millions? Do they imagine the northwest will be governable with less than repeated purges and a police state, if even then? It’s a lot harder to deNazify than to Nazify (as we are seeing generations after WWII).

Do they want to deal with the Ukrainian financial situation? The debt? The international court battles? WTO? IMF?

I think, there are 3 main reasons for the advance on Kiev from a Novorussian perspective: 1) emotionally some kind of simple revenge 2) strategically some kind of final defeat of the enemy (which is quite reasonable) 3) ideologically embedding the Holy Rus of Kiev into Novorussia.

“Do they imagine the northwest will be governable with less than repeated purges and a police state, if even then?” (Cass)

No, it is likely, that the NAF would install some kind of military police state and do repeated ‘purges’ in the Northwest.

That ANY person involved in this desaster has ever ‘thought at all about the morning after’, is highly questionable, because war is usually destroying all possibilities to reflect on human lifes besides saving and killing in a most primal way.

Reblogged this on EU: Ramshackle Empire and commented:
This is a sorry mess, as Kiev is beginning to realise. All the talk of joining NATO has stopped, more recently joining the EUSSR instead. That il take a long time, perhaps forever, to get Ukraine’s economy in order, if that is ever possible in the light of Ukraine’s cripplingly heavy IMF loans.

A cautionary note about the Minsk Protocol. “Trilateral Contact Group” is a misleading name for what is actually a 5-person BILATERAL group. Five being an odd number, the DPR/LPR representatives Zakharchenko and Plotnitskiy were out-numbered 3 to 2, not just in spirit but in fact. To wit: Swiss Ambassador Heidi Tagliavini is the contact group representive of the OSCE Chairmanship, Didier Burkhalter. As OSCE Chairperson-in-Office, Burkhalter explicitely stated in August that he is “ready to assist the Ukrainian leadership in implementing the measures outlined” in Poroshenko’s June 20 peace plan. Thus, the OSCE had already acknowledged full support for Poroshenko’s plan prior to the September talks. This is not fair representation, and undoubtedly worked to the disadvantage of the DPR/LPR. In future talks, Zakharchenko should demand that the contact group show equal representation.

Eric Zuesse
The pro-Russian website, https://vk.com/wall-74692511_15456, issued yesterday the following bulletin, which has just now been confirmed as authentic, by the southeastern-Ukrainian democratic leader Oleg Tsarev; so it’s passed on:

Citizens’ Union of Ukraine — WARNING !!! Please Immediately Spread the News !!!
In the town of Starobilsk near Lugansk, at area18, the Ukrainian Army is now holding 70 of our militia as prisoners, torturing them, and digging a pit to hold their corpses. 30 are to be shot by Saturday at the latest. The execution-list has been prepared. It includes Komarnicki, Andrew M., born in 1975, who is Chief of Staff of the reconnaissance Severodonetskoye militia. If you spread this news, these guys’ lives might be able to be saved. Please especially contact the Investigative Committee of the Public Chamber, Russian Federation, and ask them to urge international organizations of which they are a member, to intervene. Please hurry, because we have [as of Wednesday October 1st] only 2 to 3 days in which to bring enough public attention to this that might stop it!!!

I tried to post an urgent bulletin to save the lives of NAF captives. By now, it may be too late. Why is my comment still awaiting moderation? I have never had to be moderated before. This was an URGENT bulletin. Eric Zeuzze urged people to let everyone know these militia fighters were going to be executed Saturday. He hoped if the right people knew, their lives could be saved. Please, what gives?? Why am I being moderated on something so important? Has this site been seized by the NSA? That is my biggest fear. Sorry, dear Moderator, please understand my unhappiness.