MD_DA120
DA
MD DA120 OCEANIA DAIRY MARKET OVERVIEW
MADISON, WI. March 19, 2015 (REPORT 11)
OCEANIA OVERVIEW:
Australian milk production has been supported by favorable weather conditions over
most of the key dairying regions. Producer margins have also been fairly good and
have supported milk production. Recent rains across southern Australia,
especially Victoria, have improved paddocks to the point where producers are
delaying their hay purchases. This situation of reduced demand has caused some
hay prices to edge slightly lower. Dairy cow culling rates have increased due to
high beef prices. The number of heifers available for export has declined as
producers are keeping more heifers for their own herds. The Australian Bureau of
Agriculture and Resource Economics projects an 8% increase in dairy export
earnings for the 2015/16 season. Estimates, presented at the recently concluded
ABAREs conference, were based on average seasonal conditions and global economic
activity growing near 3.3%. According to Dairy Australia, production of various
dairy commodities for December 2014 showed the following percentage changes
compared to 2013: butter, -19.2%; butteroil, +10.5%; skim milk powder, +12.4%;
whole milk powder, -26.3%; buttermilk powder, -8.2%; cheese, +19.2%; and whey
powder, -26.3. Dairy Australia reports dairy product exports for the July-January
period totaling 427.4 thousand MT, up 0.7% from the year ago period. Various dairy
product export changes compared to the same period last year are: butter, -20.1%;
butter oil, +10.2%; cheddar, -13.1%; SMP, +28.4%; WMP, -38.9% and whey products
+0.7%.
New Zealand's milk production is declining at an increasing rate. Some forecast
estimates show full-season milk production down 1.5%-2.0% compared to the previous
season. Dairy cow culling rates have increased over the past number of weeks.
The pace is significantly above the previous season with some reports indicating
the pace may be the highest in ten years. The North Island has received
substantial rains over the past week with forecasts for more. The South Island
has had some rain, but the Canterbury region has seen little and remains very dry.
At the March 17 GDT event #136, average prices ranged from 15.2% lower to 5.5%
lower from the prior event across categories. The all contracts price averages
(US$ per MT) and percent changes from the previous average are: anhydrous milk
fat, $3,877 -8.4%; butter, $3,555 -9.4%; buttermilk powder, $2,635 -11.6%; cheddar
cheese, $3,130 -7.4%; lactose, n.a.; rennet casein, $7,507 -15.2%; skim milk
powder, $2,731 -5.5%; sweet whey powder, n.a.; and whole milk powder, $2,928 -
9.6%.
0930C rick.whipp@ams.usda.gov 608.278.4151
USDA/AMS/Dairy Market News, Madison, Wisconsin
Dairy Market News website: www.ams.usda.gov/dairymarketnews
Dairy Market News database portal: http://www.marketnews.usda.gov/mnp/da-home