FILE - In this Oct. 6, 2012, file photo, Texas A&M quarterback Johnny Manziel throws a short pass in the first quarter of an NCAA college football game against Mississippi in Oxford, Miss. A record 98 underclassmen, including Manziel, have made themselves eligible for the NFL draft in May. (AP Photo/Rogelio V. Solis, File)

On ESPN NFL draft expert Mel Kiper Jr.’s big board, he has three quarterbacks ranked Nos. 9, 10 and 11 overall, with No. 11 being Johnny Manziel.
That doesn’t mean the Texas A&M quarterback won’t go No. 1 overall on May 8, the first day of the NFL draft in New York. Kiper said it’s a real possibility, so Browns fans expecting Manziel to fall to the team at the No. 4 spot could be disappointed.
“To see Manziel there (at No. 4 overall for the Browns) would be a surprise to me,” said Kiper on a Thursday teleconference. “When you talk to people in the (NFL), he’s pretty much the consensus No. 1 quarterback. There’s some that don’t have Manziel that high, but the ones I’ve talked to have him as the No. 1 quarterback. So I see (Manziel) going (at worst) 1 or 3 (overall).”
The Texans own the No. 1 overall pick, followed by the Rams, Jaguars and then the Browns. The Texans and Jaguars are expected to draft a QB. St. Louis, with Sam Bradford, is reportedly willing to trade the No. 2 pick.
Kiper has QBs Teddy Bridgewater of Louisville ninth overall in his draft rankings, Central Florida’s Blake Bortles No. 10 and Manziel 11, but he cautioned his rankings could change based on the results from the draft combine in Indianapolis in two weeks and pro day workout results from the QB trio.
A scenario in which Bridgewater, a junior who declared after the 2013 season, being available for the Browns at No. 4 seems likely at this time, said Kiper. The Louisville QB threw for 3,970 yards with 31 touchdowns against four interceptions and completed 71 percent of his passes. The knock on Bridgewater is the lack of high-quality opponents the past two seasons. Performances against Florida in the Sugar Bowl two seasons ago, and Bridgewater’s final college game against Miami (Fla.) — in which he threw for a career-high 447 yards and three touchdowns — in the Champs Sports Bowl might say otherwise.
“(Bridgewater’s) pro day and the combine will be important for him,” said Kiper. “He makes very good decisions. He thinks pass first, run second and goes about his business in a workmanlike manner. Teddy Bridgewater come draft day may be a little underrated.”
As for the Browns’ interest in Bridgewater, Kiper said, “I’ve heard Cleveland has a pretty good opinion of him.”
The fact Kiper’s QB draft rankings are a cluster ­— “If you look at Bridgewater, Bortles and Manziel, you put them in a hat and pick,” he said — might be an indicator of how difficult evaluating signal-callers has become over the years.
“There’s no perfect world on quarterbacks. In one respect, QBs in college are throwing the ball so much more and are more equipped to come right in and play,” said Kiper. “Everything right now (in the NFL) is tailored toward the quarterback. With that being said, the problem is when I started (as a NFL draft analyst) in the late (1970s) and ’80s, quarterbacks were allowed time to develop. In a two-, three-, four- sometimes five-year period, they were able to develop and weren’t forced in there.
“Now every (QB) is expected to be great as a rookie or by their second year. If you’re not, you’re kicked to the curb, you’re called a bust. Teams will cut the chord and go to another quarterback. It’s good, and it’s bad.”
Kiper might as well been talking about Brandon Weeden, whose two-year stint as the Browns’ QB is all but officially over in Cleveland. Drafted No. 22 overall by the Browns in 2012 draft, Weeden threw for 3,385 yard and 14 TDs as a rookie, then 1,731 and nine touchdowns last season.
One way or another, Kiper expects the QB situation to be addressed by the Browns in the first round. With two picks in Round 1 (Nos. 4 and 26), Kiper see a likely scenario in which Cleveland goes QB-WR at 4 and 26 or WR-QB, with Clemson’s Sammy Watkins likely being the target with the first pick.
In the second scenario, Kiper said available QBs at No. 26 would be Fresno State’s Derek Carr or Alabama’s A.J. McCarron.

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Mark's an Ohio State graduate who's been with The News-Herald since 1996. He enjoys exercising, reading, writing, cooking, spending time with his family and college football. Reach the author at mpodolski@news-herald.com
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