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Evan Turner: By the Numbers Breakdown

One of Turner's bread and butter plays starts with him throwing an entry pass into the high post, which is followed by a rub-off screen and hand off to Turner for a top of the key mid-range jumper. Opponents often go under the rub-off screen, which frees Turner up for an open mid-range jumper, where he is shooting 45% from on the season. Turner does a good job of quickly setting his feet on these plays, and usually gets off an uncontested jumper.
Pick and Roll, as Ball Handler (188 Possessions, 0.84 PPP, 54th):

Turner is a good ball handler, and does a good job of shedding his man on a pick and roll screen. After the screen, he is good at patiently weaving his way through traffic, and will often times find himself an open mid-range jumper. Despite his affinity for mid-range shots, Turner will drive into the paint when given a lane, and he does a good job of getting to the rim, where he finishes at nearly a 60% clip. Turner would rank higher in this category if not for his high turnover percentage of 18.1%. He will often over-dribble, which allows the defense to collapse on him and forces him into making bad passes that are easily intercepted.

Isolation (131 Possessions, 0.78 PPP, 98th):

While Turner is a good ball handler, he settles for too many mid-range jumpers in isolation situations, which are easily contested. While he does usually shoot these at a high percentage, his accuracy suffers when his defender has a chance to contest. When he chooses to do so Turner is capable of beating his defender to the rim, but he does not do this often enough, which is why he is shooting 36% from the field in isolation situations.
Spot Up (153 Possessions, 0.90 PPP, 194th):

Despite his poor overall 3PT shooting percentage, Turner actually shoots the three ball reasonably well when he has a chance to set his feet. In spot up situations, Turner is shooting 33% (26-78) from three point range. When given sufficient time and space (such as on a kick-out after the defense collapses on a drive), Turner can somewhat reliably knock down long range shots, especially so from the corners. When forced to move off the catch however, his 3PT percentage plummets.
Transition (207 Possessions, 0.90 PPP, 212th):

Because of his ball handling skills, Turner can easily beat defenders to the rim in transition situations, and is quite proficient at drawing fouls after beating his man. However, similar to his tendencies in isolation situations, he has a tendency to settle for short range pull up jumpers in transition, specifically of the fadeaway variety. Turner also tries to force some passes in transition, which leads to a higher than average turnover rate.

Overall (1069 Possessions, 0.85 PPP, 285th):
Pros: Turner is a very capable ball handler, and is adept at shedding his man on screens. When he puts his mind to it, he is easily capable of beating his man to the rim, where he finishes at a decent percentage (60%). He is a very good mid-range shooter (45%), and he is capable of creating his own shot in this space. Turner also is capable of reliably knocking down open 3PT shots from each corner.

Cons: Turner is a bad three point shooter outside of the corners, and is even worse off the dribble or on the move. He settles for too many mid to short range jumpers (and sometimes even forces these shots against set defenses), when he is more than capable of getting to the rim and finishing. Turner is not a great passer, and will occasionally throw a pass he has no business attempting. He also sometimes overdribbles and allows defenses to collapse on him, and he tends to make poor decisions with the ball in these situations.

Defense:

Off-Screens (52 Possessions, 0.85 PPP, 52nd):

Defensively, this is Turner at his best. He moves his feet well when navigating around screens, and usually makes good decisions when choosing to go under, over, or through the screen. He is quick to close out on his man after he gets through a screen, which allows him to easily contest shot attempts. He also rarely bites on pump fakes while he is closing out, which grants him time to regain his defensive position and forces opponents to play against a set defense.
Isolation (60 Possessions, 0.87 PPP, 153rd):

Turner is a slightly above average defender in isolation situations. He does a good job of shading his man towards his non-dominant ball hand, but his slow first step defensively often negates any advantage he gains from forcing his man into driving with his weak hand, and leaves him in a situation where he has to overplay his man in order to recover after getting beat off the dribble. This leaves Turner susceptible to step back or change of direction moves. Once again, Turner doesn't bite on pump fakes, which means he is rarely caught out of defensive position, and can therefore easily contest any jumpshots opponents take against him in isolation situations. Turner also has a strong base, which helps him prevent his man from backing him down in post-up isolation situations.
Pick and Roll, Against Ball Handler (108 Possessions, 0.89 PPP, 179th):

This is another area where Turner's slow first step defensively hurts him. While Turner does a good job positioning himself for the initial pick, he often gets hung up on the pick simply because he isn't quick enough to get around it at the same speed as his man does. He usually makes good decisions when choosing to go under or over the screen, but since he has trouble recovering when going over a screen due to his lack of footspeed, he will occasionally go under a screen that he should go over, which frees up his man for open jump shots.

Spot Up (251 Possessions, 1.18 PPP, 297th):

This category is Turner's bane defensively. Opponents are shooting a blazing 48% from 3PT land in spot up situations against Turner, and they are shooting it often (157 times). That's nearly 3 attempts per game, which means that Turner gives up on average 4.32 point per game from spot up three point attempts. Turner's main problem is that when opponents drive he often helps too far into the lane, which leaves his man wide open for a kick out and 3PT attempt. While Turner does try his best to close out, he often times has lost track of his man and is therefore too out of position to even get a hand is his mans face. Turner will also consistently ball watch while on defense, which results in him losing track of his man.

Overall (544 Possessions, 1.04 PPP, 400th):

Pros: Despite what his metrics may suggest, Turner is actually a sound individual defender. Turner has good instincts when defending against screens, and is generally good at getting around them despite his lack of quickness. He closes out well and rarely bites on ball fakes, which means he is rarely caught out of defensive position in 1-on-1 situations. Turner also has a strong base, which means he is difficult to back down, even for bigger and stronger players.

Cons: Turner is not a good off ball defensive player. He frequently loses track of his man, whether it be from over helping off the ball or simply ball watching from across the court, which results in lots of open jumpers for his man. Turner has a slow first step defensively, which allows quicker players to easily get by him. Turner's slow first step also strongly impacts how he deals with screens. He often will try to go under a screen in order to take away driving lanes since he is not quick enough to go over a screen while still denying penetration, and this can free up his man for open jump shots after being screened for. Turner will also occasionally get hung up on screens since he is not quick enough to get around them.

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Re: Evan Turner: By the Numbers Breakdown

Nice breakdown, thanks! I look forward to having another ballhandler with the second unit. Hopefully this mean's less "bad Lance" possessions

Edit: And I wouldn't read too much into his defensive Synergy stats. Those are often highly dependent on who is around you, and it doesn't get much worse than playing on a team fighting for the number one draft pick, and Hawes as your primary rim protector!

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Re: Evan Turner: By the Numbers Breakdown

This is great, thanks.

The slow first step isn't good, but the other big problems you write about (helping too much on defense and leaving the 3 open, shooting threes poorly off the dribble) are tendencies that can be fixed and not fatal flaws.

Re: Evan Turner: By the Numbers Breakdown

Of players who've played 30 or more games and drive to the basket 2 or more times per game, Lance Stephenson ranks #4 in FG% on drives at 59.5% on 217 total drives. That's a higher % than everyone not named Boris Diaw, LeBron James, and Manu Ginobili.

Evan Tuner ranks #27 at 48.8%. He has 323 total drives, 106 more than Lance. A drive is defined as "Any touch that starts at least 20 feet of the hoop and is dribbled within 10 feet of the hoop and excludes fast breaks. Measures the total number of drives as well as the points, assists and shooting percentages on drives to the basket."

Lance drives a lot, but Evan Turner drives almost 50% as much as Lance. That's a lot of drives! for a non-PG (3rd most behind LeBron and DeRozan).

He's also at 37.1% on catch and shoot (below average) while Lance is at 30.9%.

Re: Evan Turner: By the Numbers Breakdown

most potentially concerning to me is how lance and turner play together. both have similar games. It will be interesting to see how Coach Vogel handles the duo.

I'm going to beat this dead horse into the ground: Vogel needs to stagger his rotations differently than he has this season with Turner coming on board, for the very reason you mentioned. He and Lance have similar games and both need the ball in their hands to be effective. Instead of Lance being the first sub out, they should take Hill out, put Watson in for the starters (that might get him some open looks and get him back on track--he's really been struggling) for a few minutes, and have Hill out there as the starter with the second unit. This way you have a veteran out there who can hit threes and lead by example in case Turner struggles handling the ball.

Create an ignore list. I know it may seem unneighborly. But you're here to talk about the Pacers, not argue with someone who's just looking for an argument. Most of the regular users on here make use (at least occasionally) of the "Ignore" feature. Just go to "Settings" -> "Edit Ignore List" and add the names.

Re: Evan Turner: By the Numbers Breakdown

You can see lots of the good. If you take out his contested mid range Js, he becomes a very efficient offensive player. I expect him to feel less freedom here so he will pick his spots more carefully.

Defensively, Philly is a dumpster fire, I am glad the individual defending is his strong suit. He will fit in well. Also if he reads screens well he will fit in well with Vogel's fight through every screen philosophy. I'm actually encouraged assuming the write ups are thorough and accurate.

Re: Evan Turner: By the Numbers Breakdown

I'm going to beat this dead horse into the ground: Vogel needs to stagger his rotations differently than he has this season with Turner coming on board, for the very reason you mentioned. He and Lance have similar games and both need the ball in their hands to be effective. Instead of Lance being the first sub out, they should take Hill out, put Watson in for the starters (that might get him some open looks and get him back on track--he's really been struggling) for a few minutes, and have Hill out there as the starter with the second unit. This way you have a veteran out there who can hit threes and lead by example in case Turner struggles handling the ball.

Who's the second wing playing with the second unit? Or are you suggesting that Hill/Watson should play together more?

If they're playing three wings all of the wing minutes, one of the wings has to be the first sub out. Hill could come out early with them which would allow the Pacers to run a Hill/starter wing/Turner second unit, but one of the wings still has to be there.

Re: Evan Turner: By the Numbers Breakdown

Of players who've played 30 or more games and drive to the basket 2 or more times per game, Lance Stephenson ranks #4 in FG% on drives at 59.5% on 217 total drives. That's a higher % than everyone not named Boris Diaw, LeBron James, and Manu Ginobili.

I know that Boris is good at this but it's still funny to see him included

Tonight, all flags must burn, in place of steeples.
Autonomy must return into the hands of the people.

Re: Evan Turner: By the Numbers Breakdown

Did you make this yourself? This is very informative and well put together. Thanks for doing this.

Yeah I wrote this up. I have not seen many of Evan Turner's games since he came into the league (same as probably most of PD), so I watched a bunch of film on him and just started writing down what I noticed.

Re: Evan Turner: By the Numbers Breakdown

Stats are like that. Looking at them in a vacuum and that is what you get. :-)

You ever considered the origin of that phrase?

This breakdown is far from it IMO and by that I mean there was nothing in a vacuum when Turner showed poor defensive effort or poor shooting from the floor that compiled those stats. Sorry to rant but it's just a pet peeve of mine.

Re: Evan Turner: By the Numbers Breakdown

I'm curious to know if those stats are career stats or just for this year. I'd like to know what his numbers were for 2012 when he played alongside better teamates like Jrue Holliday, Iguodala, Hawes, Dalembert, and Lou Williams. I hope he plays better with a change of scenery and with better teamates.

Larry is not coming back, he didn't have a meeting with Orlando for not reason, yeah he is coming back to the NBA but not to the Pacers, the notion that he is a taking a year off and then come back is absurd.