The Growing Storm

A member of the Awakening Group in the Faduat Arab neighborhood in Baghdad. (Photo: Getty Images)

Last weekend, the Iraqi government arrested an Awakening Group leader of a
Baghdad neighborhood, then moved into the area. With the help of US occupation
forces, they disarmed the militiamen under his control, but only after fighting
broke out between US-backed Iraqi government security forces and the US-formed
Sunni Awakening Group militia. This disturbing event is the realization of what
most Iraqis have long feared - that the relative calm in Iraq today would eventually
be broken when fighting erupts between these two entities.

The US policy that has led to this recent violence has been long in the making,
as it has only been a matter of time before the tenuous truce between the groups
came unglued. For it has been a truce built on a deeply corrupt US policy of
backing the predominantly Shia Iraqi government forces while paying the Sunni
resistance not to fight both government and occupation forces.

Most of us remember all too well the praise from the Bush administration lavished
on the Awakening Groups, a Sunni militia comprised of former resistance fighters
and al-Qaeda members (according to the US military), each member paid $300 per
month of US taxpayer money. They grew in strength to 100,000 men.

US aid to the Councils was cut off last October on the understanding that the
members would be absorbed into Iraqi government forces. To date, less than a
third have been given government jobs.

Two months ago I visited the al-Dora area of Baghdad, a sprawling area controlled
by Awakening forces. One of their commanders told me he was concerned about
the fact that most of his men were not being given government jobs. "They
are lacking pay, and most of them are becoming more angry by the day, since
they have had more broken promises than they can handle," he explained
as we drank tea, "Many of my men have not been paid since October. This
cannot continue."

Meanwhile, the US-backed Iraqi government led by US-appointed Prime Minister
Nouri al-Maliki continues to target the leadership of the Awakening Groups.
Maliki perceives the Awakening groups as both a political and military threat,
and since October has been targeting their leadership in parts of Baghdad, as
well as in Iraq's volatile Diyala Province.

In the wake of the spasm of violence in Baghdad last weekend, The Washington
Post reported
"As Apache helicopter gunships cruised above Baghdad's Fadhil neighborhood,
former Sunni insurgents fought from rooftops and street corners against American
and Iraqi forces, according to witnesses, the Iraqi military and police. At
least 15 people were wounded in the gunfights, which lasted several hours. By
nightfall, the street fighters had taken five Iraqi soldiers hostage. The battles,
the most ferocious in nearly a year in Baghdad, erupted minutes after the arrest
of Adil Mashadani, the leader of the Fadhil Awakening Council, which is composed
mostly of former Sunni insurgents who allied themselves with the US military
in exchange for monthly salaries that are now paid by Iraq's government."

Of course, the reason given to justify government's detention of the Awakening
leader of the area, the incident that triggered the bloodshed, were "terrorist
acts" by the group, according to Iraq's chief military spokesman, Gen.
Qassim Atta. Predictably, the Awakening group spokesman for the area, Abu Mirna,
told the Post, "We will fight them till the end if they don't release him."

It was convenient policy to have set up the Awakening groups to temporarily
quell overall violence in Iraq. Resistance fighters rushed to join the ranks
for the paycheck, as well as US military protection from Shia militias, which
now largely comprise the government security apparatus. Now, however, clearly
the US has lost some of their interest in continuing to support the Awakening
groups, and the Maliki government is ratcheting up its efforts to dismantle
them. Predictably, members of the Awakening are fighting back - for without
a paycheck, and with yet another broken promise by the occupation forces to
spur them on, why should they sit back and allow themselves to be detained,
killed or further betrayed?

However, let us not martyr the Awakening Groups. Most of the leadership of
the Awakening Groups are thugs, as are many of the members. Within weeks of
the formation of the groups back in 2006, Iraqis living in areas that began
to come under the control of Awakening groups began complaining of the brutality
of the fighters in their area. Extortion and bribery became rampant, and many
Iraqis view Awakening forces as collaborators with the occupiers of their country.

For example, I recently had the opportunity to spend some time with the president
of the Fallujah Awakening Council, Sheikh Aifan Sadun, who, like other Awakening
leaders, has hundreds of security personnel under his control. It was just before
the January 30 elections in Iraq, and he was vying for political power against
a rival Sunni group in the city - the Iraqi Islamic Party. Sheikh Aifan, who
spoke with me while driving his $420,000 custom-built heavily armored BMW through
the city that was destroyed by two US sieges in 2004, was accusing his rivals
of rigging the upcoming elections.

He told me he would use "any means necessary" to fight them if they
stole the elections. It was and is all about power for these Awakening leaders.
And money. Shiekh Aifan, like most of the Awakening leaders, quickly got into
the "construction business" when the US military stopped direct payments
to them last October. Now those payments come in the form of "construction
contracts." Sheikh Aifan himself has been awarded "contracts"
worth $250 million - keep that in mind during this tax season, because it is
your money that is paying for things like his own private militia, his BMW and
his mansion on the outskirts of Fallujah.

In nearby Ramadi, the capital city of Al-Anbar, Sheikh Ahmad Abo Risha is president
of the Awakening Council for the entire province. Just before the election,
he, like Sheikh Aifan, was making moves to ensure he maintained his grip on
power. His rival in the elections was Sheikh Hamid Al-Hayis, also an Awakening
Council leader in the city, and from the same tribe. Abo Risha did not have
kind words for Al-Hayis. "Al-Hayis has relations with government people
and oil contracts, and he gets money from this by using his position which we
helped him acquire," Abo Risha told me at the Awakening Council of Ramadi
headquarters. "I'm from a long line of sheikhs, but Al-Hayis has only been
a sheikh since 2006 when we started the Awakening," Abo Risha said. If
Al-Hayis were to win the elections, "there will be a revolution."

When I asked Abo Risha about the Islamic Party, which Sheikh Aifan was accusing
of trying to steal the elections, he told me if the Islamic Party took the elections
by fraud, "It will be like Darfur."

None of these threats came to pass, as both men were victorious over their
rivals. But their bellicose rhetoric is indicative of the kind of people they
are, and the lengths they are willing to go to in order to maintain and/or seize
power.

Despite the corruption and inherent infighting with the Awakening Group leaders,
most of them, and the tens of thousands of men under their control, will certainly
fight when attacked or provoked, as evidenced by this past weekend in Baghdad.

Broadening the frame of reference, keep in mind that government detentions,
killings and threats towards Awakening Group leaders and members are ongoing
in neighborhoods of Baghdad, as well as across Diyala province. We should expect
violence in the areas of Baghdad they control as the Iraqi government continues
to make moves towards taking them out in advance of the national elections scheduled
for later this year. Thus, keep your eyes on the following areas of Baghdad
in the coming weeks and months: Adhamiyah, Amiriyah, Gazaliyah and al-Dora,
to name just a few. More broadly, also watch Baquba and surrounding areas where
Awakening Groups are largely in control.

And keep Al-Anbar in mind. The province, which is one-third the geographic
area of Iraq, is largely controlled by Awakening groups. This is the area where
the fiercest resistance to the occupation has occurred, and if US occupation
forces or the US-backed Iraqi government begins to move on men like Sheikh Aifan
or Abo Risha, it will bring predictable results.

As Awakening Group member Abu Ayad, 58, told the Post, "We will all become
suicide bombers" if his leader, Mashadani, is not released by the Iraqi
government.