The authenticity of Jemaah Islamiyah's claim of responsibility for Thursday's Jakarta bomb on an Islamic website cannot be confirmed. There are strong indications, however, that the militant network that wants to turn south-east Asia into an Islamic state was responsible for the explosion that killed nine people and injured some 180.

Australian and Indonesian police agree the bombers' modus operandi was extremely similar to that of the Bali bombings in 2002, which killed 202 people, and the bomb at Jakarta's JW Marriott hotel in August 2003, which killed 12.

The chemicals found at the three bomb sites were also almost identical - mostly potassium chloride and TNT - and so were the tactics. A vehicle is packed with the rudimentary but effective device and parked immediately in front of the selected target before being detonated, usually with the driver still at the wheel.

One of the loudest questions being heard in Indonesia is why the bombings are continuing. It is almost as if one bombing is a tragedy, two in 10 months is unfortunate but three in two years is bordering on the unacceptable.

As the Media Indonesia daily said today in an editorial: "We are ashamed because, as a nation, we are considered a crime nest. We are ashamed because the police are not able to prevent another bomb blast."

The headline of the editorial in another newspaper, Kompas, was even simpler. "Another bomb, another bomb, until when [?]" But is Indonesia really crawling with terrorists?

Not in the least, would be the initial reaction of someone who has observed Indonesia merely through the lens of its three election campaigns this year.

None of the parties or presidential candidates has made anything more than a passing reference to the lingering problem and, in opinion polls, the terrorist threat has consistently not even made the top 10 of issues voters are most concerned about.

That does not mean it no longer exists, as the Australian embassy bombing demonstrated all too clearly. So to outsiders it must appear almost as if the issue is like a nasty carpet stain for Indonesians. If they don't look at it and don't draw attention to it, they can convince themselves it does not exist.

Indonesians are not stupid. Most know the problem is out there and the authorities, albeit often only under external pressure, are making progress in defeating JI. Dozens of alleged members have been arrested and 33 men have been convicted in connection with the Bali bombing.

They could, however, be doing a great deal more. The government has only been half-hearted in its efforts to prosecute Abu Bakar Ba'asyir, the fiery cleric who is JI's alleged spiritual leader, and no real effort has been made to dismantle the militant Islamic boarding schools that are known to have turned out numerous radicals.

The next obvious question is: why haven't they done more? Fear of upsetting Muslim sensibilities in the world's most populous Muslim nation is a large part of the answer. It is seen as almost political suicide to start waging open warfare against fellow Muslims, even though the militants' support base is tiny by any standards.

The authorities have been getting away with their tentative efforts to date because the targets have been foreign: nightclubs packed with tourists, an American hotel and now the Australian embassy. There is a palpable atmosphere in some quarters of "well, Indonesians are not being targeted so it's not really our problem".

It will be interesting to see whether this political hesitancy continues after the latest attack. Whoever is elected president on September 20 will have strong public support to come down hard on people clearly identified as terrorists. The million-dollar question is will he, or she, do so?

Corruption and incompetence in the security forces and intelligence agencies are also key factors. It is easy for people to bribe the authorities to look the other way, and, even if they were focusing on the job, there is no guarantee they would have the capacity to act effectively.

So how is this cycle of violence going to end? No one knows. A more dynamic president than Megawati Sukarnoputri would definitely be an asset, as would the adoption of a more holistic approach to defeating terrorism, involving education and provincial development as well as the strong arm of the law.

And when might it end? Hard to tell but it would be extremely surprising if more bombs did not explode quite regularly over the next five years, particularly if the two alleged ringleaders, Azahari Husin and Noordin Mohammed Top, remain at large.