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The price of crude oil has nearly tripled in the past two years, from the low $30s in December 2008 to 92 a barrel now, and some analysts see it topping 100 this year. That has boosted the shares of many energy producers—yet a good number, especially those focused on petroleum rather than natural gas, still look like buys.

Over the past 12 months, crude has moved up about 16%, as the stocks of integrated-energy concerns—those that search for, produce and refine oil—have jumped 16%. Exploration-company stocks have risen 8%.

A Barron's computer screen of good-sized North American energy companies turned up 13, listed below, with more than 40% of their assets in oil. They range from behemoth ExxonMobil (ticker: XOM) to relatively unknown
Cenovus EnergyCVE 1.0309278350515463%Cenovus Energy Inc.U.S.: NYSEUSD15.68
0.161.0309278350515463%
/Date(1481320909911-0600)/
Volume (Delayed 15m)
:
1594989AFTER HOURSUSD15.68
%
Volume (Delayed 15m)
:
316
P/E Ratio
N/AMarket Cap
17063833368.5936
Dividend Yield
0.9600046694627105% Rev. per Employee
3799000More quote details and news »CVEinYour ValueYour ChangeShort position
(CVE). Most look attractive. That is less a testament to their individual merits, however, than to the strong likelihood that oil prices will remain robust for several years. (Remember that a screen is only a starting point. Before investing, it is wise to do further research on any company in which you're interested.)

Wall Street's earnings estimates for the companies generally assume an average crude price around 85, says Fadel Gheit, an oil analyst at Oppenheimer & Co. That means a higher price for petroleum could generate some upside profit surprises, especially for exploration and production outfits. (For refiners, a price rise is a two-edged sword. They get more for their products, but they pay more for the oil needed to make them.)

Just on the merits of recovering demand, especially from China, higher average oil prices seem plausible—despite high unemployment in the U.S. and Europe, and percolating fear about the continuing sovereign-debt crisis in the Old World. Deutsche Bank pegs demand at 88.7 million barrels per day for this year. That would be 1.5 million more per day than 2010's figure. And that could be an understatement if the global economy fully revives.

SUPPLY ISN'T LIKELY TO RAMP UP much this year, even if prices do. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries is thought to have at least four million barrels per day of spare capacity, but OPEC has held production quotas steady and would be comfortable with $90 oil. Brazil's huge offshore oil deposits eventually could flood the world, but the bonanza is buried under deepwater salt formations, and production is likely to proceed slowly.

Higher demand should be a bonanza for oil outfits, especially exploration-and-production companies.
Bettmann/CORBIS

Meanwhile, North American producers face offshore-drilling curbs and generally have been made more cautious by the
BP
disaster in the Gulf of Mexico. Production is being aided by hydraulic fracturing, also known as "fracking," the horizontal-drilling process used to shatter shale—a type of rock that contains natural gas. The environmentally controversial process has led to an oversupply of gas, but it also has boosted production of the oil and related liquids found alongside it.

"I want to see oil get above and stay above $92–then I have confidence we can get to $103 [in 2011], and then $115 is the next level," says Rick Bensignor, chief market strategist at Dahlman Rose, a New York investment bank focused on energy, commodities and related transportation. "The first half of the decade, energy was out of favor. It has plenty of catch-up room to go."

One thing that could hold prices back is consumer resistance. In previous oil-price spikes, $4.50-per-gallon gasoline marked the point at which consumers began driving less. Today, with underemployment and weak wage growth, "it might only take $3.75 to $4.00" gasoline, writes Paul Sankey, an energy analyst at Deutsche Bank. But high-octane gasoline already is near that level in some parts of the country, and there has been no downturn in demand.

Exxon has about half its reserves tethered to oil, even with XTO Energy, a natural-gas producer it bought in 2009. The shares have underperformed in the past year, up only 10%. Investors aren't paying much for Exxon's reserves, given its significant chemical and refining businesses. At a recent $76.71, Exxon was trading at 11.6 times projected 2011 earnings of $6.62 per share. Predicting the shares could hit 90 in 2011,Barron's has placed Exxon among its 10 favorite equities for the year ("Hear, Hear!—Our Favorite Stocks for 2011," Jan. 3). Exxon's $1.76 annual dividend produces a 2.3% yield.

That's nice, but not as nice as the 3.1% yield of
ChevronCVX 0.5557002691673179%Chevron Corp.U.S.: NYSEUSD115.81
0.640.5557002691673179%
/Date(1481320863217-0600)/
Volume (Delayed 15m)
:
5728292AFTER HOURSUSD115.81
%
Volume (Delayed 15m)
:
43259
P/E Ratio
N/AMarket Cap
217414357222.103
Dividend Yield
3.730247819704689% Rev. per Employee
1760670More quote details and news »CVXinYour ValueYour ChangeShort position
(CVX), one of JPMorgan's top energy picks. Chevron is de-emphasizing refining, and it is investing in oil exploration in Canada and Nigeria and gas projects in the U.S. and Australia. Based on its expected earnings of $10.03 a share this year, up 9% from 2010's $9.28, the company trades at a P/E of 9.2 times, the lowest multiple among our 13 stocks.

Also backing away from refining is
Marathon OilMRO -0.7072905331882481%Marathon Oil Corp.U.S.: NYSEUSD18.25
-0.13-0.7072905331882481%
/Date(1481320933217-0600)/
Volume (Delayed 15m)
:
10920097AFTER HOURSUSD18.24
-0.01-0.0547945205479452%
Volume (Delayed 15m)
:
79646
P/E Ratio
N/AMarket Cap
15571737442.0684
Dividend Yield
1.095890410958904% Rev. per Employee
1548070More quote details and news »MROinYour ValueYour ChangeShort position
(MRO). On Thursday, it agreed to spin off its refining operations, which have been a drag on earnings. The stock rose 6% on the news, to near 43. Bulls think it will be more focused on exploration and thus more profitable. Based on expected 2011 net, the combined operations trade at a multiple below 10.

IN CONTRAST,Anadarko PetroleumAPC 0.29888983774551664%Anadarko Petroleum Corp.U.S.: NYSEUSD70.47
0.210.29888983774551664%
/Date(1481320855678-0600)/
Volume (Delayed 15m)
:
3790172AFTER HOURSUSD70.47
%
Volume (Delayed 15m)
:
620714
P/E Ratio
N/AMarket Cap
39268385522.5546
Dividend Yield
0.2838087129274869% Rev. per Employee
1363450More quote details and news »APCinYour ValueYour ChangeShort position
(APC), an explorer with properties in the U.S., Africa and elsewhere, fetches more than 35 times estimated 2011 earnings of $2.18 per share. Near 77, the price reflects some takeover speculation. Anadarko has made large energy discoveries–nearly half its reserves are oil–and is considered a premier explorer. But it needs cash to develop its fields, and that requires either selling assets or selling out, says Oppenheimer analyst Gheit. CEO James Hackett has "sold three companies before, so it isn't a stretch to make it four and create value for shareholders," the analyst says. But unless an acquisition does occur, the stock looks pricey.

ConocoPhillipsCOP 1.9887505022097227%ConocoPhillipsU.S.: NYSEUSD50.77
0.991.9887505022097227%
/Date(1481320911591-0600)/
Volume (Delayed 15m)
:
6101305AFTER HOURSUSD50.85
0.080.15757337010045303%
Volume (Delayed 15m)
:
24750
P/E Ratio
N/AMarket Cap
61678761429.4104
Dividend Yield
1.9696671262556629% Rev. per Employee
1467420More quote details and news »COPinYour ValueYour ChangeShort position
(COP) also has some negatives, even though it earns enough to offer a dividend yield of 3.2%. Although its reserves were heavier with oil than gas, it plans to sell more than $10 billion of assets, and already sold its $6 billion stake in Lukoil, Russia's oil giant. Still weighing on the company is its 2006 purchase of Burlington Resources for $35 billion, before natural-gas prices collapsed. Conoco stock ran up about 28% in the past year. Don't look for a repeat in 2011.