Trading Futures on the Swine Flu (H1N1)

Just as the media chatter about H1N1 influenza reached a fever pitch, traders were expressing a more sober outlook.

At least that's the word from the Iowa Electronic Health Markets, which opened H1N1 futures contracts on April 28th to assess the breadth, speed and severity of the outbreak. "Overall, the conclusion to draw from the market is that the outbreak would spread quickly and broadly but not be too serious," says economist Forrest Nelson of the University of Iowa in Iowa City, who helps run the site with funding from the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation.

Apparently the Iowa Electronic Health Markets have been very accurate in the past