In the most recent SLU Poll of registered voters statewide, Mary Landrieu
has a substantial lead in the race to retain her seat in the United States
Senate, but whether she can win in the primary is still uncertain.
If Landrieu is forced into a runoff, the likely runoff opponent could be
either Suzanne Terrell or John Cooksey.
In addition, although voters in Louisiana
give President George W. Bush mostly positive ratings regarding his handling
of the economy and foreign policy, relatively few support the idea of the
United States acting alone against Iraq instead of acting in conjunction
with the United Nations.
These SLU Poll results are based on a statewide
random sample of 537 registered voters, interviewed between October 18-24,
2002. The sampling error is + 4.3%.

The U. S. Senate Primary

It is clear from the data (Tables 1 through 3) that Landrieu has a comfortable
lead heading into the primary, receiving 43.5% of the vote from those surveyed.
While this amounts to about 54% from among decided voters, turnout among
voters will be crucial to determining whether she can avoid a runoff election
in December. Terrell and Cooksey have 14.9% and 10.4% of the choices,
respectively. Since both scores are within the sampling error, the
race for second place is too close to call. Tony Perkins trails the
other three major candidates badly with 4.9%. Other candidates receive
a total of 7.1%, while 19.1% of respondents are undecided or refuse to
state a preference.
Landrieu's good fortunes extend throughout
nearly all demographic categories. For example, she gets 70.1% of
the black vote, 32.6% of the white vote, 41.1% of the male vote, and 45.4%
of the vote among women. Her support runs largely in the low to mid
40s in most education and income categories. Although Landrieu leads
without regard to age and region, she receives 50.8% of the vote among
voters 45 to 59 years of age and 53.1% of the choices from voters in Southeastern
Louisiana.
Only among Republican voters does Landrieu
not lead. In fact, Terrell receives 31.8% of Republican choices,
Cooksey 18.8%, and Landrieu 13.9%. Landrieu gets 63.0% of the choices
among Democrats and 39.8% among independent voters.

Table 1: The Senate Primary by Race, Gender, and Party
Identification.
"If the election for United States Senator were held today, would you
vote for John Cooksey, Mary Landrieu, Tony Perkins, Suzanne Terrell or
someone else?"

Total

Black

White

Male

Female

Democrat

Independent

Republican

Cooksey

10.4%

3.2%

13.4%

11.5%

9.5%

6.1%

10.4%

18.8%

Landrieu

43.5

70.1

32.6

41.1

45.4

63.0

39.8

13.9

Perkins

4.9

6.9

3.5

6.0

4.3

3.4

7.3

Terrell

14.9

1.5

20.5

20.5

10.4

5.5

16.7

31.8

Other

7.1

11.5

5.4

7.3

7.0

7.8

9.1

4.3

Don't know/refused

19.1

13.7

21.2

16.0

21.5

13.3

20.8

23.8

N=

537

156

381

241

296

240

130

130

Table 2: The Senate Primary by Education and Annual Family
Income.

HS Diploma

Some College

College Degree

<$20Th

$20-40Th

$40-60th

$60Th+

Cooksey

12.6%

8.7%

10.0%

5.6%

12.2%

13.3%

10.2%

Landrieu

44.9

42.4

43.6

52.1

43.8

43.0

46.3

Perkins

4.2

5.8

4.5

5.7

4.3

2.7

3.7

Terrell

8.9

19.8

19.4

5.9

16.6

14.0

22.2

Other

7.0

7.4

7.7

7.0

9.5

6.4

3.7

Don't know/refused

22.4

15.5

14.8

23.7

12.8

21.0

14.8

N =

214

161

149

114

141

100

108

Table 3: The Senate Primary by Age and Region.

.

<44 yrs.

45-59 yrs.

60+ yrs

Cajun Triangle

Southeast Louisiana

North/Central La.

Cooksey

11.0%

9.8%

10.5%

11.2%

6.0%

17.6%

Landrieu

40.9

50.8

39.9

34.9

53.1

36.3

Perkins

4.5

1.4

7.9

5.8

4.1

5.4

Terrell

8.4

17.3

17.6

19.0

14.6

10.6

Other

11.7

6.7

4.3

4.8

7.2

9.9

Don't know/refushed

22.7

13.6

19.5

24.2

15.2

20.3

N=

154

162

221

161

243

133

The Presidents Approval Ratings and the Crisis with Iraq

We asked voters to tell us what they thought about President Bush's
performance in office. Generally, 56.6% of voters approve of his
handling of the economy, while 57.1% approve of the way in which he has
handled foreign policy. On the other hand, only 28.7% believe that
the U. S. should act alone against Iraq, while 51.5% believe that we should
act only with the United Nations.

Table 4: Presidential Approval Ratings.
"Generally speaking, would you say that you approve or disapprove of
George W. Bush's handling of (the economy/foreign policy)?....Do you feel
strongly about this or not?"

Economy

Foreign Policy

Strongly Approve

32.3%

38.3%

Approve

24.3

18.8

Disapprove

11.8

9.4

Strongly Disapprove

18.6

21.2

Don't know/refused

13.0

12.3

N=

537

537

Table 5: How to act against Iraq.
"Do you think that there is any good reason for the
U.S. to act alone against Iraq or should we only act with the United
Nations?....Do you feel strongly about this or not?"

Act alone, feel strongly

17.8

Act alone

11.0

Only with UN

17.0

Only with UN, feel strongly

34.5

Don't act at all

2.0

Don't know/refused

17.7

N=

537

About the SLU Poll

The Director of the SLU Poll is Dr. Kurt Corbello, Department of History
and Political Science. Through the SLU Poll, Southeastern Louisiana University
provides objective and independent analyses of public opinion on important
issues and elections. Each poll is conducted by students who are
trained for the purpose and who are under professional supervision.
Facilities for the SLU Poll are provided by the Florida Parishes Social
Science Research Center (FPSSRC). For further information about The SLU
Poll contact: