Recap: One of CV's favorite betting angles is to take LIVE HOME DOGS (thus the play on SMU, LL, & Arizona State)... The system works best when the live home dog is playing a nationally ranked team (TCU & Oregon fall into this category)... I'm taking my 2nd ride on Virginia tech in as many weeks as they treated me well last week... And Louisiana Lafayette?... Another live home dog... Who is Middle Tennessee to be laying points to ANYBODY (not named Andy's Avengers)?... On the road?...

Here are a look at the betting trends to see if you're going with the PUBLIC, or the HOUSE... I'n going with the public on one of these games, the HOUSE on 2 of them today... The HOUSE won yesterday... (so did I)... Good Luck...

EARLY GAMES

Tennessee Flaming Thumbtacks at New York Football Giants (1:00 EST)

Line: New York Football Giants by 3

Last week I took the Titans for a MULTI UNIT play (vs. the Steelers) and got a "sloppy effort" by them to show for it... Pittsburgh ran the opening kickoff back for a touchdown, and if that wasn't bad enough, I had to suffer:

- 7 turnovers by the Titans (including 2 in the red zone)

- An 85 yard TD run by Chris Johnson nullified by a penalty

- and other things that happen only when you have large $$ riding the other way

All that said, the Titans still had a chance to pull the game out at the very end, but came up short...

It's unusual for a QUALITY team (with a QUALITY coach) to perform that poorly for two weeks in a row, so I expect the Titans to bounce back here (unless I've severely misread them)... The Titans rely on heavy defense, and their ability to RUN THE ROCK... This should be good news that they're facing the New York Giants here (who surrendered 163 rushing yards on 40 carries to the Colts last week)... The Colts have perennially had the worst rushing offense in the NFL for the past 5 seasons (and were dead last in 2009)...

If Giants offensive coordinator Kevin Gilbride gameplans like he did against the Colts last week, I don't give the Giants much of a chance on offense... In week 1, Arian Foster (of the Texans) flat out embarassed the Colts by rushing for 233 yards... So what does Gilbride do with Ahmad Bradshaw & Brandon Jacobs?... He calls 7 out of the first 10 plays "passes"... Right now, Gilbride is on my "wall of shame" right next to Todd Haley (of the Chiefs), & Chan Gailey (of the Bills)... No wonder Brandon Jacobs was tossing his helment into the stands... He was probably trying to toss it at Gilbride, but the "sticky" part of his glove caught, & it ended up in downtown Indianapolis instead... I can already see this as one of those games like, in the past, that Eli Manning will find himself in 3rd & longs and try to manufacture something before the half in a 2 minute drill, toss a pick, and ICE the game for the visitors... The TITANS have 8 sacks on the year... I don't even like the fact that Hakeem Nicks is going to have to go against Cortland Finnegan... Nicks leads all NFL receivers with 4 TD catches already this year (and I have him on ALL my fantasy squads)... But guess what?... I'm SITTING him this week...

The silent UNDERLYING thing about this game is that many bettors still think of the New York Giants as a team who can contend for a championship... Instead, they're in disarray... There have been rumblings about players relationship with head coach Tom Coughlin... They're running with a new defensive coordinator Perry Fewell (fresh from the red-hot Bills - ror)... In the last few years, the Giants have gotten off to quick starts in September... But last year I warned everybody about their impending demise (because their 5-0 start was against the likes of "rebuilding" teams like Tampa Bay, KC, and the like)... This could be a year that BALANCES OUT some of those stats (and I could easily see them starting 1-4)... They were lucky to get the Panthers in week 1... New York is a big town, but it can usually only hold the attention of one or two "teams of interest" at any given time... The hope right now is that the Yankees (with the best record in baseball) make it to the World Series and give a post-mortem gift to George Steinbrenner... The JETS have garnered a lot of headlines, so that makes the GIANTS slip to 2nd class citizens... There's no longer any player chemistry (or legacy players), to hold this franchise together... I look for the Giants to be HO HUM at best this year (especially with all the attention of McNabb/Shanahan in Washington, Dog Killer in Philly, and whatever soap opera of the day befits Dallas)... The public hasn't caught on yet... Hell, just last Sunday it was "Manning vs. Manning" so as far as most people know (that are not named Archie Manning), the game is still on in Gotham... I'll take the other side of that and go with the TITANS for my max (5 units)...

correct +$500

Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots (1:00 EST)

Line: Patriots by 13

I said at the beginning of the year that most of the 2011 MOCK DRAFT scenarios have the Bills picking first (which basically means that most think they'll end up with the worst record in the NFL this year)...

I concur...

Their offensive line can't block, and their new coach (Chan Gailey) can't figure out which RB to feature... I think he fielded a better squad at Georgia Tech... They took CJ Spiller (from Clemson) with the 9th overall pick, but then hardly used him last week vs. Green Bay (as they were probably trying to "shop" Cal grad Marshawn Lynch to the Packers to team up with Cal grad Aaron Rodgers so they wouldn't be stuck with Brandon Jacobs all year)... All the while, last years 1,000 rusher Fred Jackson is going "Hey - what about me?"... Who knows who they'll use this week? Whoever it is might do fairly well against a vanilla Patriots defense that let Ladainian Tomlinson run all over them last week... But the Bills just don't have the same kind of front line that the Jets did, so I wouldn't expect much...

New Englands effort against the Jets has been dissected many ways... I chalked up the poor 2nd half to the Patriots "reacting" incorrectly to when Darelle Revis went out of the game... Preparing for the Bills isn't hard though (although their secondary isn't too bad)... On a whim, I picked up Fred Taylor in some of my fantasy leagues as I feel the Patriots can RUN off the Bills, and Kevin Faulk is out with a torn ACL...

The numbers here say Tom Brady is 13-6 against the spread following a loss... He's 6-3 versus the number after a defeat since 2006... Against Buffalo - his margin of victory is 25, 35, 33, 16, 59 and 10... And most of those were against Bills teams that were more legit...

I'll take the PATRIOTS here for (3 units)...

Incorrect -$330

Cleveland Browns at Baltimore Ravens (1:00 EST)

Line: Ravens by 10.5

I'll try not to bore all of you with my never-ending praise for the RAVENS (who were another of my "high unit" losses last week)... For the un-initiated, one ought to take a look at my OVERALL results (which are posted at the top of the column)... But also, the "UNIT PICKS" (as I try to zero in on games that I think provide VALUE from a betting perspective - OR NOT)... Sometimes you get bamboozled by various things,

(like the "Titans" who simply tossed a stinker against the Steelers)...

As they say... "ON ANY GIVEN SUNDAY"...

In the case of Baltimore vs. Cincy last week... Well, Joe Flacco surely tossed in a stinker (with some bad choices), but it was also the REFS who tossed a stinker by calling ridiculous personal foul penalties (roughing the QB) that enabled Cincinnati to kick 2 field goals (which was the margin of victory)... Ray Lewis & John Harbaugh had some choice words about that after the game (and of course both were asked to contribute to the Roger Goodell - build a golden statue in my image foundation - after having done so)...

OK... I'll refrain from making any more excuses... But you people "rolling your eyes" right now (you know who you are)... Guess what?... Carl Cheffers has been named the head referee for the Houston/Dallas game this Sunday (game write up later)... I'm going to say this one time, and one time only... I'll give you a PERSONAL GUARANTEE that when the Cowboys win by a slim margin (which they will)... You all will be doing the same REF BITCHING that I'm talking about right now... In honor of the new Hawaii 5-0 series on TV... BOOK EM DANO!

Here's the quick & dirty on this game (which frankly isn't very interesting unless you're a Ravens fan)... The Browns have solid corners, but their safety play isn't very good... They're currently ranked ninth against the pass, (but they've only played noodle armed Matt Cassel & Josh Freeman who was playing with a broken thumb) thus far... Flacco ought to be able to move the chains at will against this squad... So unless a local Baltimore mafia guy breaks Flacco's thumb this week, then soaks his arm into the pasta kettle at one of Baltimore's famous LITTLE ITALY restaurants this week... My guess is...

The Ravens D, solid as always, is facing Seneca Wallace here (scarily, REALLY - he's been known to "cover" point spreads on the last play of the game, so I'm a little nervous - he may be on the payroll of one of those mafia guys)... But the Ravens DROPPED two balls that were surefire interceptions vs. Carson Palmer last week (so I'm sure they'll have some extra STICKUM handy)... The Ravens are basically a team that takes care of business against inferior squads... Last year, they demolished Cleveland, 28-10 and 34-3... Also handy to know...

- Ravens are 9-1 ATS vs. teams with losing records under John Harbaugh.

- Ravens are 5-1 ATS as double-digit favorites under John Harbaugh.

I'd probably be taking the Ravens here even as 12 or 13 point favorites, but the line has dropped because they looked so awful vs. Cincy last week... RAVENS for (5 units)...

Incorrect -$550

Pittsburgh Steelers at Tampa Bay Bucs (1:00 EST)

Line: Steelers by 2.5

You read my comments about the Steelers-Titans game last week in another game write-up... Basically, I think the Steelers are VERY LUCKY to be sporting a 2-0 record at this juncture... In the pre-season, all the chatter was "The Steelers need to somehow carve out a 2-2 record in their first 4 games (before the return of Ben Rothleisberger from suspension), or they might not have a shot at making the playoffs... Well, here we are in week 3 and the Steelers are 2-0... Next week they play the Ravens... This is a CLASSIC set-up situation in which a team lets down their guard... Yes - it's called a TRAP GAME...

Everyone knows how the Buccaneers have been in a re-building process for the past few years... They're starting to put some pieces together, but it's not all there yet... Somehow, they find themselves 2-0 to start the season... They're probably not REALLY that good (as both wins came against crappy teams [Browns - Panthers])... Nevertheless, they might not REALIZE yet, that they're crappy, and they need a win against a "marquis" opponent (enter Steelers), to make themselves legit...

If there was EVER a good time to face the Steelers, now is the time... They've already used 3 QB's this year (Dixon - Leftwich - & Batch)... Two have gone down with knee injuries (Leftwich in the last game of the pre-season - where he was dropped - now re-activated since Dixon is down)... They're (QB's), probably all going down because the Steelers just don't have the same solid offensive line that they've had in championship years... I can't tell you how LUCKY they were that the TITANS just gave away the ballgame to them last week by committing 7 turnovers... The Steelers did SQUAT (but rake in the bonanza [and cost CV muchos dineros in the process])...

I don't want to paint too rosy a picture here for Tampa Bay... The fact is that they're still a rebuilding squad with a young QB (Josh Freeman)... That fact is undoubtedly going to get confused & tested against a formidable defense, and a formidable defensive coordinator (Dick Le Beau)... But if Freeman & the Bucs can manage to not make too many mistakes, they might be able to hang on against a squad that is biding it's time until their franchise QB comes back, & that might be UNFOCUSED because of a win that was handed to them last week (Titans), and the fact that they have to play a tough division rival (Ravens), next week...

I'll go with the BUCCANEERS, in a potential upset (for 4 units)... This is my SURPRISE pick of the week... Tampa, remember this too, has a BYE next week...

Incorrect -$440

Cincinnati Bengals at Carolina Panthers (1:00 EST)

Line: Bengals by 3

So I guess we see the NFL "starting" debut of Jimmy Clausen this week... I doubt the world will stop spinning or anything so please, proceed accordingly with your previously scheduled weekend plans...

I suppose Clausen is an acquired taste... CV still hasn't acquired that taste (but I will admit I've come to respect his technical ability a little more by watching him in the pre-season)... He can't be any worse than Matt Moore has performed the past 2 weeks... The problem here is that left tackle Jeff Otah is likely out for the game and the Bengals like to bring a lot of pressure... They really succeeded in getting to Joe Flacco last week (but you have to consider that that was a divisional matchup - where there's normally a lot more intensity)... But stats are stats... The Panthers have given up 7 sacks already this season, and Clausen ought to be on the run a little... I hope he likes the taste of grass...

I don't want to waste too many words on this game because I don't like the prospects for EITHER team... I think the Bengals are overrated... Carson Palmer should have had 2 balls intercepted last week (which were dropped)... Perhaps they could rely on Cedric Benson a little, but actually the Panthers have only allowed 2.8 yards per attempt this year... I can't predict how that will end up...

Mostly though, what I don't like is this SPOT that the Bengals find themselves in... They're favored (on the road), after winning (as a dog) at home... Marvin Lewis is 2-7 in situations like this... I'll take the PANTHERS, but since I hate this game (0 units)...

Incorrect 0

Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints (1:00 EST)

Line: Saints by 4.5

You have to be mighty happy (if you're a Saints fan) to have a QB like Drew Brees... On Monday Night... vs. the 49ers... If you "didn't" look at the clock (after the REPLAY confirmed the 2 point try was good)... see 1:19 remaining, and say... "That's a LIFETIME for Drew Brees"... Then you know SQUAT about football...

What's more... Brees did it in a hostile environment, against a great defense... Brees is clearly one of the top QB's in the game today...

This week, Brees won't be in a hostile environment... He'll be in the friendly confines of the Superdome against the division rival Falcons... Atlanta's secondary is currently ranked 19th versus the pass (7.0 YPA), but that's a bit misleading because they've played Dennis (please "Dog", help me not to fumble) Dixon and Derek Anderson (who, I'm sure blew a 1.5 on a breath-a-lizer after the game last week)... Brees may be called on to do most of the duty here (as Reggie Bush went down with a broken fibula last week)... Atlanta is pretty good against the run anyway, so the fact that the Saints are versatile won't be too problematic... The YPC numbers against them (Falcons) are skewed because of two breakaway runs by Rashard Mendenhall & Tim Hightower in successive weeks)...

The Falcons may be able to put up enough points to hang with the Saints (provided they take care of the football & don't turn it over)... The Saints haven't been as dominant overall on defense this year (yet they still have the knack to strip balls, and tip passes that lead to turnovers)...

The fact that this is only a 4 point line is a little puzzling... Last year, it might have been 5.5 or 6 (which means you SHOULD be getting value by laying points with the Saints here)... But like I mentioned in other game write-ups, the Saints are coming off a tough emotional win... Home favorites coming off road wins of 1-3 points are 21-46 ATS in Weeks 2-10 since 2000... So I'll go with the FALCONS for (1 unit) here...

Correct +$100

San Francisco 49ers at Kansas City Chiefs (1:00 EST)

Line: 49ers by 2.5

Many are wondering about the 49ers right now (who were VERY hyped in the pre-season)... Here's my take... Alex Smith is improved... He went 5-of-6 for 63 yards with 24 rushing yards on the final possession (against the World Champion Saints)...

What else would you like me to say? OK... He needs to prove that was not just a one game affair, but he definitely looks improved... The Week 1 loss to the Seahawks might be written off to poor communication in getting the plays in from the sidelines...

Vs. the Chiefs, he'll be going against Eric Berry (who HAS NOT been particularly impressive); he missed tackles in the opener and blew a coverage that resulted in a touchdown last week...

EB's going to be fine, & safety is a position that takes a bit to adjust to in the NFL, but this week he's going to face Michael Crabtree & Vernon Davis...

Frank Gore trampled the Saints on Monday night, but the Chiefs, surprisingly have allowed just 3.6 yards per carry in the first two weeks... The 49ers may have to rely on Gore catching passes out of the backfield...

There's an interesting betting trend going AGAINST the Chiefs this week... The winless 49ers are favored over them... Which fits a 15-2 system dating back to 1980...

Winless teams getting points over a team coming off a win have covered 15 out of 17 times... It's not a huge sample size, but think about it, a "winless" team has to be favored over a team coming off a victory for a reason, right?

The reason? Matt Cassel blows goats... He's completed just 52 percent of his passes in two weeks... The 49ers will concentrate on stopping Kansas City's ground attack, forcing Cassel to beat them... Kansas City's 2-0 start is a joke...

The other reason is that Todd Haley doesn't understand the concept of giving the ball to his best player (Jamaal Charles)... Last week, Thomas Jones had 23 touches (Charles had 12)... TJ turned compiled 88 yards (83 rushing, 5 receiving), Charles? 76 yards (on half the touches)...

Notwithstanding those stats, I hate it when a team is in a tough spot... & 49ers are in a tough spot here... They poured their guts out to beat the World Champion Saints last Monday Night in front of a national TV audience and came up just short...

Football is a game of emotions as much as "x"'s & "O"'s, so the 49ers may find themselves SCRAPPING instead of ROLLING over a team that under normal circumstances, they ought to beat in their sleep...

The irony is that this game SHOULD be about a 5.5 point spread (49ers favored)... But the line has dropped down to 2.5 because of the surprising starts for both these teams... The 49ERS ought to be able to cover a field goal spread so I'll go with them by them for (1 unit)...

Incorrect -$110

Detroit Lions at Minnesota Vikings (1:00 EST)

Line: Vikings by 10.5

By now, the public is on to the fact that the Vikings are in trouble... If you've been listening to CV all pre-season, that should come as no surprise... I'd said that the Favre issue was a distraction, that the Sidney Rice issue was important, (as well as the health problems of Percy Harvin)...

Many think of the Colts as a one headed monster (Peyton Manning)... Well - the VIKES are like a three headed monster (as those 3 combined give them a dimension that allows them to balance a talented back like Adrian Peterson into the mix)... Remember that the Vikes let Chester Taylor go to the Bears in the offseason, so they have really been rudderless on offense thus far...

Their offensive line is not as good as last year, and they play a murder schedule front loaded with Saints, Dolphins, Cowboys, Packers & Jets...

Playing the Lions this week (at home) ought to offer a break... Normally, I'd have this circled as a TRAP game, but the Vikings are clearly in desperation mode after dropping their first two.. For the Lions, despite the addition of Ndamukong Suh, they are having issues against the run; they surrendered six yards per carry to the Eagles... LeSean McCoy ran all over them, as most were probably doubly focused on Vick because they thought he was in town to kill their dogs...

Adrian Peterson ought to have a huge game, which will set up play-action and short-yardage opportunities for Brett Favre... Detroit's secondary is currently ranked 31st in that department, allowing 9.5 yards per pass attempt...

Detroit has become sort of a "sentimental" pick from bettors (who think they're getting value on a team that's no longer in the 0-16 realm)... Rookie Jahvid Best put up some unbelievable numbers against an overly aggressive Eagle defense last week, but Minnesota has had a week to study that game film...

Here's the bottom line: Prior to last week's loss to Miami, Minnesota would have been favored in this game by -12.5 or -13 (so there's some "value", actually, in only having to lay 10.5)... Week 4 is a BYE WEEK for the Vikes... Favorites of -6.5 or more going into their bye are 34-8 against the spread since 2002... Lastly, they're "desperate"...(0-2 teams that made the playoffs the year before are 6-3 against the spread as favorites in Week 3 dating back to 2003)...

I'll take the VIKINGS to cover up the double digits for (5 units)...

Correct +$500

Dallas Cowboys at Houston Texans (1:00 EST)

Line: Texans by 3

What's up with the Cowboys? Wasn't the PRESEASON hype that they were going to go to the Super Bowl this year and play in their own billion dollar stadium? That's pretty much the DEPTH at which most fans know football, but the fact is that it's hard to win in the NFL without a cohesive offensive line... The good news is that two of their key lineman are now working their way back into the lineup, and things should start getting a little better... You also have to consider that the Cowboys, (like the Vikings), started off the 2010 campaign against juggernauts...

Now - Before you start laughing hysterically, & wonder what kind of drugs CV is on, and ask the logical question "Redskins? Bears? juggernauts? Pffft!...

You'd be right to ask that question (if you'd asked it in July)... But as it turns out, BOTH squads have been playing much better than expected in their new systems (with new coaches - Shanahan in DC & Mike Martz as OC in Chicago)... Hell, I've been watching ESPN all week and eveyone is raving about Jay Cutler & Donovan McNabb - McNabb put up almost 500 yards passing vs. The Texans last week, and Cutler tossed 3 TD's vs. the Cowboys)... Let's start there, then break that down a little...

In week 1... Dallas was without two key offensive lineman, (and Flozell Adams is practicing his karate act in Pittsburgh these days)... Washington is always a madhouse to play in... FED EX field is the largest stadium (seating wise) in the NFL (over 90,000) and the Redskins always sell out (especially a Sunday Night game on national TV)... Add to that that the Redskins (who have a fairly stout defense), were much ballyhooed over the offseason due to the acquisition of a new head coach (who has 2 Super Bowl rings), and key personnel (like Donovan McNabb)... If there's one thing Redskins owner Dan Snyder has, it's a checkbook... Cowboys-Skins is a rivalry steeped in tradition, so it wasn't going to be easy no matter what the situation... The Cowboys, despite playing poorly, still almost won that game...

Enter the BEARS... You all needed to see the 1st quarter of that game to understand it... DeMarcus Ware was absolutely "teeing off" against Jay Cutler... I really didn't think Cutler was going to make it thru the game... Ambulances were circling the field... Somehow, the Bears managed to make some adjustments, and because Scott Green (the most crooked REF in the NFL), probably had some $$ on the Bears & kept calling penalites, and/or was getting feisty with some "in the grasp" rules, Cutler survived... The bottom line is that the Cowboys are very close to being 2-0 (not 0-2)... But nobody really knows that yet because they're too busy blowing smoke up the ass of Jay Cutler, or crappy teams like the Kansas City Chiefs...

Here's the quick recap (& reality check) on Houston (a 3 point favorite - and sudden DARLING of sports bettors)... Houston's secondary hasn't been able to stop anyone... They're 30th versus the pass (9.0 YPA). Their cornerbacks are really struggling... Romo, Miles Austin, Dez Bryant & company should be able to have a big day... Hell - the Cowboys could probably bring back Golden Richards & he'd put up some good fantasy numbers off the waiver wire... On offense, Houston (now that they have a solid RB in Arian Foster), should be able to display the BALANCE needed to create good play action opportunities (which Matt Schaub utilized well vs. Washington)... But here's a potential problem... Duante Brown is on a four-game suspension for violating the league's policy on performance enhancing drugs... Against, probably, the most fearsome pass rusher in the NFL (DeMarcus Ware of the Cowboys), that means that Matt Schaub might not have the same time that he's enjoyed the past two weeks vs. Indy or Washington... Now - someone might correctly tell me that facing Freeney & Mathis (of the Colts) isn't too easy either... That would be true... But the Colts suck against the run (that's why Foster got 233 yards in week 1)... Dallas has the 8th ranked rushing defense in the league and only yields 3.1 yards per carry... Somebody is going to have to step up their game here...

Besides the potential match-up problems, I simply like the Cowboys here because they're in a similar spot as the Vikings... Much is expected of them this season, and so far they've produce zero "W"'s... OTOH, Houston is probably very happy to find themselves 2-0 after playing an emotional game (last week vs. Washington) RIGHT AFTER another one, (against arch nemesis, Indy, in week 1)...

Last week, they managed to squeak out a 4th quarter comeback victory against the Redskins that they needed a tricky TIMEOUT on the clock maneuver by their head coach to ICE THE ROOKIE KICKER, & win the game...

I'll go with the COWBOYS (as my SEPTEMBER PICK OF THE MONTH), for (7 units)... (Realizing, by doing so, I'm betting on the dumbest head coach [Wade Phillips] in the league, and the foot of a kicker who has the shanks)... Dontcha love it?...

Correct +$700

LATE GAMES

Washington Redskins at St. Louis Rams (4:05 EST)

Line: Redskins by 3.5

Here's the hard truth... The Rams are 20th versus the pass, even though they've faced the PASSING MACHINES of drunken Derek Anderson & Jason "I'm just trying to NOT be as bad as Jamarcus Russell" Campbell (who - of course was spelled by Bruce "the Polish Point Shaver" Gradkowski)...

I'm wondering if Donovan McNabb will be able to put up 426 yards against them like he did against 2-0 Houston last week?...

St. Louis had problems stopping Tim Hightower and LaRod Stephens-Howling in the opener... They looked like the University of Arkansas taxi squad vs. Darren McFadden this past Sunday... So what does this all mean?

Redskin blowout... Right? 94% of the betting public seems to think so thus far (so they MUST be right - yes?)...

Steven Jackson will never find a hole, Rookie QB Sam Bradford will crumple like a leaf... You know all the angles...

Consider this angle... Why are the REDSKINS only favored by 3.5 (with 94% of the $$ on them)?... The CARDINALS were -3.5 in the "whatever dome"... So I guess the CARDINALS are even with the Redskins on a neutral field...

This is one of those WEIRDO/WACKY games that bait you into taking the team with the most EMOTIONAL premium... I'm not taking it... I'd rather RISK not booking a loss than TAKING a sure win... I'll go with the RAMS for (1 unit)...

After this game, the Redskins play (McNabb's former team) the "Dog Killer" Eagles, then the Packers, then the Indy Colts... I'm sure they're 100% focused right here... Right now...

Correct +$100

Philadelphia Dog Killers at Jacksonville Jaguars (4:05 EST)

Line: Eagles by 3

OK... So here we go... Week 1 of the "We're tired of doing the Brett Favre retirement (or no) watch, so now since that's settled, we're going to do the "How many defensive pups can MV slay this week" watch...

Read my lips people... Michael Vick makes headlines because you live in the United States of America... This is the land of Oprah... It's the land that elected Barack Obama as POTUS... Do I have to go back as far as "The New Kids on the Block" to make my point?... Never heard of them?... Great! Because probably in about 20 more years, Americans will be making the same jokes about Barack Hussein Obama...

But condense this argument down into football weekends, I'll discuss the FLAVA FLAV of the week... Michael Vick... To start... WTF? OK... So Philly trades its franchise QB (intra division) to make Kevin Kolb their new franchise QB (no prob), then, within a week, (and only 2 quarters of football against the team who will probably represent the NFC in this years Super Bowl - THE GREEN BAY PACKERS), Kolb goes down with a concussion to be replaced with a manaical dog killer who comes in and runs around?... Then, this same guy seems to have a halfway decent game against one of the worst defenses in the league and suddenly your GO TO franchise QB (from the offseason) is involved in trade rumors?

All I can say is... GOOD LUCK EAGLES (if you choose to go this route)... Hell... It may work this week because the Eagles get to play, probably, the MANGIEST MUTTS of the AFC (Jacksonville)...

The Eagles have NO CLASS...

I'm not going to waste words on this matchup... The only thing interesting here might be with regards to FANTASY FOOTBALL points... Dog Killer Vick might be able to generate some more stats against a team that sucks... And that may perpetuate one more week of the JERRY SPRINGER show (which is the same as Oprah, or Obama, or anything else, these days, that passes for entertainment in the USA)...

I hope for you MJD owners (in fantasy), that he gives you some points finally... Maurice Jones-Drew owners have to be panicking right now; their RB1 has just 129 yards on 35 carries this year... I hope OTHERS of you may realize WHY I passed on all these types, and "reached" for Aaron Rodgers in my FF drafts...

I'll go ahead and predict that Michael Vick (and the Eagles), will have a decent week here (if only because the Jags suck)... But what do you expect?... Eagles beating the JAGS is akin to Obama coming on TV in a town hall meeting and telling everybody how much better he is than George W. Bush... At least Obama doesn't kill dogs... So he's got that going for him... I'll take the EAGLES for (0 units)because I refuse to profit off a dog killer...

Correct 0

Indianapolis Colts at Denver Broncos (4:15 EST)

Line: Colts by 6

If you're a heartless, degenerate gambler, looking for an edge... Then you may have noticed that MOST of CV's afternoon picks have less to do with the "X"'s & "O"'s of the actual game, but have more to do with how and where the VEGAS SPORTSBOOKS happen to stand in their weekly "vig" battle vs. good 'ol J6P (and his WEEKLY "lottery pick" in hoping he'll go 16 for 16 in the OFFICE POOL bonanza and win that TRIP to HAWAII (or $500 for the week)...

You can never tell where VEGAS is going to stand at 4:00PM est on a Sunday (vs. J6P)... Frankly - It's not always AHEAD... I've observed in recent years that Vegas sometimes doesn't mind losing early in the year (& sets cupcake lines)... Why? Why naturally to give bettors some HOPE... If you went to the elections polls in 2008, you know all about the difference between HOPE & REALITY... As with OBAMANOMICS, bettors find themselves behind, financially, (vs. THE MAN) after week 2 of the NFL season this year... Last week, the public lost as the Dolphins, Bears. Lions, Steelers, Buccaneers and Jets all covered... The only heavily bet games Vegas lost were when the Falcons, Packers, Colts and 49ers beat the number... Going "6-4" with the vig in your favor is a big payday... Basically, Obama has cleaned you out already, & you still don't realize it yet... Maybe he'll be more merciful going forward, but don't BET on it...

In any way, I'm loathe to handicap this game... The most serious issue regarding this game, happens to be the suicide of Broncos receiver Kenny McKinley... What am I supposed to do? Go over blocking schemes, audibles, & blitz packages?

This is not a FIRST in the NFL... Last year, the Bengals dealt with this with Chris Henry, & the Redskins have dealt with it as well (Sean Taylor)...

I'll go ahead here and say the COLTS are a professional team which will take care of their own professional responsibilities at hand to win and cover the spread... But it's a ZERO SUM GAME for me (out of respect)... (0 units)...

Correct 0

San Diego Lightning Bolts at Seattle Seahawks (4:15 EST)

Line: Chargers by 5.5

Chargers GM AJ Smith is a douche... "Lord of No Rings" (he has beed dubbed)... His handling of the Vincent Jackson situation is ridiculous, and will end up only hurting the team... If you ask me, it's hard for an NFL team to focus on business when it is surrounded by these types of distractions... I hardly see how they're going to be much better than 8-8 at the end of the season...

Lucky for them they play in the AFC West (where 8-8) might just get you into the playoffs... It was joked about on ESPN this week that 6-10 might win the division... It gets even better for the Chargers because they get to play their 2nd hapless squad in as many weeks (after feasting on David garrard interceptions last week)...

Maybe the players can tune out all the noise... Maybe Malcom Floyd and Legedu Nannee won't have to worry about looking over their shoulder (since Vince jackson is now no longer likely to come back ever)...

But it's going to take some FOOTBALL PLAYING... Despite the woes of the Seahawks, Seattle (12th man), is actually a pretty tough place to play... Last year, desite going 4-12, they were 5-3 vs. the point spread at home... Seattle's defense has done a pretty good job of shutting down Frank Gore & Knowshon Moreno in the past two weeks, so I might not be expecting wonders from Tolbert-Matthews (assuming the latter suits up)...

In summary, while you can't expect too much out of the Seahawks, they might have enough game to hang with a Chargers team that is off to it's customary slow start... I'd be leaning with the SEAHAWKS to cover for (0 units)...

Correct 0

Oakland Raiders at Arizona Cardinals (4:05 EST)

Line: Cardinals by 4

The Raiders are deciding between Jason Campbell and Bruce Gradkowski... The only reason Oakland traded for Campbell is because they're a franchise that makes poor decisions, Al Davis is senile, Gradkowski was coming off multiple injuries...

Arizona's defense has been playing pathetic football... Jason Snelling torched them last week... They'd better dial it up a notch or Darren McFadden (who has played well in weeks 1&2), is going to make them look even sillier...

The only thing more of a joke than Arizona's defense, is their offense... Derek Anderson plays drunk every week, and has only managed a 54.2 completion percentage against two teams (Rams-Falcons) with average defenses... It's not going to be any easier with Nnamdi Asomugha erasing Larry Fitzgerald... Tim Hightower has put up some decent fantasy numbers, but most of that is due to two breakaway runs... It takes a few more games to see if he's the real deal or not... Beanie Wells may or may not play, and is likely to want to challenge for the FEATURE BACK spot...

This is a hard game to handicap because most of the "x"'s & "0"'s favor a play on the Raiders... But teams that lose the point spread by 25 or more points are 74-35 against the spread the following week (34-12 if favored)...

Arizona fits this system this week, and are playing in their home opener... So, I'll go against logic and take the CARDINALS for (0 units)...

Disclosure/Warning

This blog should not be interpreted as investment advice of any kind.The authors are NOT representing themselves CTAs or CFAs or Investment/Trading Advisor of any kind.The authors may or may not trade in the markets discussed.The authors may hold positions opposite of what may by inferred by this blog.The information contained in this blog is taken from sources the authors believes to be reliable, but it is not guaranteed by the authors as to the accuracy or completeness thereof and is presented here for information purposes only. Commodity trading involves risk and is not for everyone.

Fictional Character Quote of the Day:

I guess it comes down to a simple choice. Get busy living or get busy dying.

- Andy Dufresne

"The Shawshank Redemption"

About this Blog

This Blog's primary focus is on trading based upon technical analysis. It is run by "AmenRa" and "AndyT," quasi-anonymous traders who employ technical analysis to assess market conditions and trading opportunities. AmenRa utilizes 3LB techniques, Moving Averages and Fibonacci sequences. AndyT's analysis relies primarily on "Wave Theory" and Fibonacci sequences. The Comments Section is uncensored and open to the public. Please try and adhere to the "Blogger Policy."