March Compass - eNews from Baltimore Planning

March, 2014

A Message from the Director…

This is an exciting time
for a new look at the City of Baltimore's reinvigorated housing market.

The City added over
9,000 new housing units in the first four years of this decade, many of which
are located in and around downtown Baltimore. Young professionals are
flocking to downtown and other walkable, urban neighborhoods in growing
numbers.

While the housing market
throughout the City still varies from neighborhood to neighborhood, there are
more and more reasons to be optimistic about the future of the entire
city. The housing market typology is being used to strategically direct our limitedresources
in an effort to make the biggest possible impact on our neighborhoods.
The INSPIRE project, for example, is developing strategic action plans around every new school being constructed under the Twenty-First
Century Schools initiative. The
goal is to leverage this historic investment to grow and improve
the surrounding neighborhoods for both new and existing residents.

We look forward to a
future where every neighborhood is a great place to live, with quality schools,
sound housing stock and attractive public amenities. The Department of
Planning will continue to use tools, such as the Housing Market Typology, to
help make all of Baltimore a great place to live, play, and grow.

Thomas J. Stosur, Director

Tuesday,
April 21, 2014, 6-8pm at Humanim
in the American Brewery Building - 1701 N
Gay St, Baltimore, MD 21213

Join us
for an informative and interactive evening for the whole family. The event will
focus on how, together, we can clean up Baltimore. Talk to other community
members, city representatives, and organizations to learn about what's
happening to address our City's trash problem. Participate in fun
activities, see what resources are available to you, and learn how you can
help build a cleaner, better Baltimore. Food and drink will be provided.

The Baltimore Commission on Sustainability
Annual Town Hall Event is a part of Baltimore Green Works, 2015 Annual Baltimore
Green Week.

Mayor Stephanie Rawlings-Blake Launches Econview: A New Tool to Track Development in Baltimore

On March 17, 2014, Mayor Stephanie Rawlings-Blake launched EconView, a new online
tool that shows different development projects that are underway or planned, or
have been recently completed in Baltimore City.

“I want to highlight what
is happening in Baltimore, and the exciting growth that is coming to our many
different communities,” said Mayor Rawlings-Blake. “This tool provides a new
way for citizens, business owners, and potential new residents and investors to
gain a better picture of what is being planned, built, and developed in their
neighborhoods.”

EconView is an
interactive tool that will be regularly refined and updated. Each project
listed in EconView also features contact information for the appropriate City
agency, helping users to obtain answers to their questions and find more
information on individual projects.

EconView was developed by
the Mayor’s Offices of Economic and Neighborhood Development and the Mayor’s
Office of Information Technology. Click here to explore EconView.

Introducing the 2014 Housing Market Typology

In 2014, Baltimore City’s Planning Department, in
partnership with the Department of Housing and Community Development (DHCD) and
The Reinvestment Fund (TRF), produced a three-year update of the Baltimore Housing
Market Typology (HMT). Previous versions of the HMT were completed in 2005,
2008 and 2011.

Since 2005, Baltimore’s Housing Market Typology (HMT) has been
used to help guide public policy, market studies, community plans, grant
funding applications and capital improvement programming. The 2011 HMT was a
critical tool in the City’s Vacants to Value strategy for addressing city-wide vacant
housing challenges.

The HMT is a Market Value
Analysis (MVA) produced by TRF, which is conducted on a regular basis to
provide a report card on the health of the city housing market, and the regular
updates help reveal changes or trends. The resulting map illustrates the range
of housing markets found throughout the City, which are categorized within eight
market types.

The HMT project, which was funded by the Departments of
Housing and Planning, was assisted by the
Housing Typology Task Force, which provided important guidance on data inputs
and the ultimate classification of the housing market types. The Task Force
consists of members from non-profit organizations, foundations, community
developers, academic institutions, private development stakeholders, as well as
Planning and Housing staff.

How is the HMT Developed?

The first step in the HMT process was a housing market
classification scheme based on quantitative data that grouped areas with
similar characteristics into market categories. With input from the Task Force,
the 2014 update included the following variables for each Census block group in
the City:

Median sales price, 2012-2014 Q2

Coefficient of
variance for sales price, 2012-2014 Q2

Foreclosure filings as a percentage of all residential
parcels, 2012-2014 Q2

Vacant housing units as a percentage of all residential
units, 2014

Vacant residential parcels as a percentage of all
residential parcels, 2014

Owner occupied units as a percentage of all occupied residential
units, 2014

Commercial/Residential land area as a percentage of
total land area, 2014

Subsidized rental units as a percentage of all occupied
rental units, 2014

Housing units per square mile, 2014

The same variables used in the 2011 HMT were used for the 2014
update, which will allow us to compare the results of the two analyses, and
subsequently, compare the changes in different variables that make up the
housing market for Baltimore.

This year’s HMT includes the addition of strong rental
markets in the analysis.Areas with very
high concentrations of rental properties, like Downtown, were previously excluded
because of data restrictions. To overcome this, values were estimated for block
groups with over 50 housing units, less than half of which were public housing units.
By applying a “capitalization
rate” to the market rents in these block groups, a comparable median sales
price per housing unit was calculated.

The map below shows the result of the HMT cluster analysis. Market
types are categorized from A to H, with A being the highest value market. It should
be noted that the variables included in the analysis were not weighted; however,
market types are sorted based on the median sales price variable. Block groups
with fewer than five sales are not represented due to a lack of data.

2014 Housing Market
Typology Map:

Housing Market Types

Based on the analysis and identification of the eight market
types, the Task Force decided to classify individual market types into five categories
that share similar market characteristics, as described below (photos and neighborhood web links from Live Baltimore).

Regional Choice

Neighborhoods in the Regional Choice market category, such
as Bellona Gittings, Cedarcroft, Evergreen, Locust Point, Homeland, Keswick,
and Guilford, represent competitive housing markets with high owner-occupancy
rates and high property values in comparison to all other market types.
Foreclosure, vacancy and abandonment rates are low. Market interventions are
not necessary in the Regional Choice market, but basic municipal services such
as street maintenance are essential to maintaining these markets.

Middle Market

Neighborhoods in the Middle Market category, such as Bayview,
Eastwood, Greenmount West, Heritage Crossing, Kenilworth Park, and Woodbourne
Heights, have median sales values above the City’s average, as well as high homeownership rates. These markets experienced higher
foreclosure rates when compared to higher value markets, with slight population
loss. Interventions are
geared toward aggressive code enforcement, in an effort to move vacant buildings as quickly as
possible to rehabilitation, which in turn supports existing homeowners.
Significant portions of the Middle Market spectrum are covered by Streamlined
Code Enforcement.

Middle Market Stressed

Neighborhoods in this category, such as Belair-Edison, Saint Helena, Garwyn Oaks, Lakeland, Union Square, and Winston-Govans, have slightly
lower home sale values than the City’s average, and have not shown significant
sales price appreciation. Vacancies and foreclosure rates are high, and the
rate of population loss has increased in this market type, according to the
2010 Census data. These
communities often have under-appreciated assets such as historic housing stock,
significant park spaces and choice locations that can serve as building blocks
for future revitalization efforts.

Stressed Market

These neighborhoods, which include Broadway East, Franklin
Square, Gay Street, Penn-North, Rosemont, and Shipley Hill, have experienced
significant deterioration of the housing stock. This market category contains
the highest vacancy rates and the lowest home ownership rates, compared to the
other market types. It also has experienced some of the most substantial
population losses in the City during the past decade. Comprehensive housing
market inventions should be targeted in this market category, including site
assembly, tax increment financing, and concentrated demolitions to create
potential for greater public safety and new green amenities. Support
for stable residential blocks is also necessary.

How is the HMT Used?

In general, the HMT assists government officials and
community stakeholders to identify and comprehend the various elements of the local
real estate markets. By using an HMT, public sector officials are able to better
target intervention strategies in weak markets and support sustainable growth
in stronger market segments.

In Baltimore, the Housing and Planning Departments use the
typology in the following ways:

DHCD - Land Resources Division

To guide the overall disposition strategy for Mayor and City
Council (MCC) owned properties.