I think it is more of a boom than a bubble, and booms are followed by busts. Sometimes I think some craft brewers have a lot of capacity dedicated to 6 packs that set on the shelf. The quality brewers can not make enough, and are constantly expanding, or building new breweries.

There are many that are getting into the business now that are not making good beer on a homebrew scale. I wish them good luck.

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Jeff RankertAnn Arbor Brewers Guild, AHA Member, BJCP CertifiedHome-brewing, not just a hobby, it is a lifestyle!

Brewers are always looking to expand their capacity because the only way you can really make money is to sell a hell of a lot of beer. We got to a point where we had to hire a sales guy, because we had been backing up at the distributor. We also depend on the distributor to move our beer and often times they do a piss poor job.

Craft beer in ALabama is most likely different than other parts of the country because it has not been established as long. But the trend here is now (finally) toward craft beer. But I can certainly saturate the market on styles if I am not careful. That said, aside from draft, we only do limited supply of 22 oz bottles. 6 Packs open up a whole new untapped market for us and volume is much greater.

that's an interesting statistic! is it broken down at all by new startups vs. established breweries?

Not on the website. I believe the BA publishes some more in-depth statistics for members' eyes only, but I'm too poor to join right now.

It's also worth noting that the actual *number* of closures per year is also dropping. I said something similar in a previous thread, but I expect that in the next few years the number of brewery closings will increase dramatically as the nano market shakes itself out. No one can operate at a loss forever.

Perhaps the trend is that entering brewers are more capable and better informed? I'm thinking there are plenty of brewery owners who have professional business/marketing skills prior to opening a brewery as a second career after the economic woes of the past years.

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The first principle is that you must not fool yourself, and you are the easiest person to fool. -Richard P. Feynman

Still. 1.8%. I imagine most of that is due to bad management rather than bad brewing or more importantly, a saturated market.

Which is why I asked the question. The few breweries I have spoken to are brewing at capacity and are selling everything they brew. A remarkable situation that is duplicated in very few industries.

A couple of related thoughts: First, it seems to me that this would be a primary indicator for when the growth curve would begin to flatten or reverse.

Then, I wonder about the dynamic of converting BMC drinkers. I mean if craft breweries DOUBLED it would still only be about 13% of the US market.

What am I missing here?

I don't think that the 'craft' market will ever capture more than 50% and if it does so much of the 'craft' market is being bought out by the BMC/INBEV/SABMiller crew that there will be market to try to grab from the big boys for a long long time.