Observations focused on the problems of an underdeveloped country, Venezuela, with some serendipity about the world (orchids, techs, science, investments, politics) at large. A famous Venezuelan, Juan Pablo Perez Alfonzo, referred to oil as the devil's excrement. For countries, easy wealth appears indeed to be the sure path to failure. Venezuela might be a clear example of that.

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Puzzling Over The Events Of The Last Few Days in Venezuela

October 8, 2014

Anyone that tells you that they know what is going on within Chavismo and the recent events in which a PSUV Deputy was killed at home, followed by the Head of a “colectivo” being killed two days later by none other than the investigative police, is simply lying. To begin with, the death of the Deputy is as strange as it gets, with the Deputy sending his bodyguards home minutes before those that killed him showed up. There was no violence, it was efficient and barely noticeable in a neighborhood where the smallest anomaly is duly noted.

Then, there was the incredible noise by Maduro and his cohorts, blaming everyone from Uribe, to the US, to the opposition and threatening to reveal it all. Even Samper got into it. Both Maduro and the Prosecutor claimed that the investigations were really advanced, the heat was on the opposition, when Maduro even blasted the new Head Of The MUD Chuo Torrealba. Then, all of a sudden Jose Odreman, leader of one of the Chavista “colectivos” is killed, no more than one hour and fifteen minutes after saying on TV that “Math never fails”, that they are after them and he makes the Minister of Interior and Justice “responsible” for anything happening to him and accuses the investigative police of killing someone that worked with him. In the now infamous video, Odreman threatens to take to the streets with other “colectivos” and one hour and ten minutes later he was dead:

Afterwards, the Head of the CIPC, accuses Odreman’s “colectivo” of “carrying out a number of murders in the greater Caracas area and…there were shots between the police and a number of former cops who were part of Odreman’s gang”

So, this is a chicken and egg problem: What comes first? the Deputy´s death or the war against the colectivos? Were the colectivos involved or was the Deputy, with his connection to the colectivos, part of the same story.

I really have no clue in this puzzle. All I know is that the Government allowed these paramilitary groups, the “colectivos” to exist. Chávez did seem to have control over them, but now they seem to have become a force of their own. They fight and criticize the police (they are mostly former police too) while going around the city armed to their teeth and act as if they are above the law. Meanwhile, the police finds these people a pain in the you know what, they are autonomous and untouchable. A veritable monster. Venezuela’s version of Colombia’s paramilitary groups.

The problem is that the actions of the colectivos is interfering with the President and his spin on things. He now orders an investigation of Odreman’s death, but the truth is that all of the ruckus raised with the Deputy’s death has died down. How can you blame the opposition when the whole thing stinks to high heaven of being an inside job within PSUV. And Maduro orders the investigation without saying a bad word about his Minister of the Interior (Las Matematicas no mienten, Odreman dixit) or the Head of the CIPC. Odreman thought his statements on video would protect his life. He was wrong, someone thought he had to go, no matter what even Maduro may think or do.

Complicated, no? A true and veritable puzzle.

Is the Government trying to placate the colectivos? Is this the military trying to get rid of Chávez’ creation because they have become a force within Chavismo that they don’t want? What happened to the big announcements that Maduro was going to make about the Deputy’s death? Did Odreman’s death stop them?

Meanwhile the opposition is as quiet as can be. When you don’t know what is going on, it is better to just shut up. The problem is that more and more Venezuelans die each day that goes by, pro-Chávez and against Chávez, in this macabre dance that Hugo left his successor to direct. And the colectivos are not controlled by anyone, as the last few days demonstrate. Which to me seems like a situation that the military would not like. Maybe absent Chávez, they decided to do something about it.

But who knows. With so many guisos and rackets in Venezuela, maybe this is just about money. Somehow in socialist Venezuela, money is always at the crux of things. The last few years have taught us that. Think money and you will have your answer.

But, who knows? All I know is that it is hard for me to get over Odreman’s statement. In a Government that does not believe in knowledge and numbers, he said it a few times: “las Matematicas no mienten” (Math never fails).

31 Responses to “Puzzling Over The Events Of The Last Few Days in Venezuela”

For anyone interested in how the regime is succesfully manipulating the English Internet news. Google News Serra by relevance and date. What do you see in the default first page of results? The usual suspects are out. They have learned this game after ten years. There is no organized online resistance to this level of disinformation warfare. Three English language articles in the top ten. Congratulations Greg.

Odreman was not very smart even with his comment. If the idiot knew he was marked for death, he would have spilled his beans or left the area. Instead he peppers us with riddles and suggestive comments hinting about something. It’s clear to see why he was where he was.

the cover-up has been extremely sloppy. Look to the father and sister/family for comments if they dare now talk.

They did not bother to puncture the body. They set themselves up for the leaked morgue photos. They could have preemtped this. But it’s digging the macabre hole deaper and there are probably few takers. The clues are everywhere and if the media could do its job unfettered this whole thing would be solved by now. I bet there was no blood at the scene. They made it sound like he bled out.

I don’t know the deal with the bodyguards but it you let them go, it’s because you dont trust them. The bodyguards could have been watching Serra on behalf of Rodriguez Torres for example. However, Serra was too complacent in his security meaning he did not see this one coming. If Serra sodomized boys as stories say, he was as good as dead in many peoples eyes. When the regime needs a body, Serra made his way to the top of list unknowingly.

Did anyone see the Serra corpse photos from the morgue? He was not punctured 30-40 times. What is evident is the bruising on his face and head and bruising around his neck consistent with strangulation. The regime has been lying since the start. The regime went to lengths with it’s lies and half-truths wanting to detract from the truth. The regime wanted us to believe that Serra was in a relationship or even married (per JRodriguez) to his assistant. The regime does not want folks to know that Serra was probably gay and a pedophile.

I think that to get to know what really happened is irrelevant at this point. When you hear this guy speaking, you realize that the problem is huge and deep. It is not only clear that this guy was a functional illiterate; when you hear him speaking you realize that he had a very poor thought process. He was incapable of speaking coherently and I venture that his IQ is in or approaching the zone of mental retardation, that is, he had a very limited capacity to process information. I don’t think that the people that conform these “colectivos” are any better in that regard. Add to this the fact that they are violent and armed, and you conclude that the table is served for disaster.

Furthermore, I do ask myself – given the fact that the vast majority of Venezuela’s population is of low or very low socioeconomic status – whether this specimen is the norm or the exception in that segment of the population. Sadly, I suspect the former much more than the later. Evidently these people are utterly incapable of making an informed decision and yet they are the ones who elected Chavez as president.

So, one is forced to conclude that whoever wants to be elected president of Venezuela has to appeal to these people’s emotions (since they comprise the majority), because they are incapable of rational thought. And when they elected Chavez, they indeed brought to power someone like themselves. It was like putting a 4 year old at the wheel of a car. The wheel is now steered by a 2 year old and about to fall from a cliff. The somalization of Venezuela has begun.

Only thing I disagree with is you blaming the uneducated and ill-informed for Chavez. Without the middle class vote, he wouldn’t have won – they are the ones who put him over the top. (That would be the same middle class that no longer exists. Perhaps this explains why you excluded them.)

Dean, you are absolutely correct.
For those of us who were here in 1998 we all know neighbours & family who voted for him.
I can remember a conversation I had with a neighbour who was an architect & retired military.
In the face of all the logical & rational facts he kept saying the country needed a change.
He was right but Chavez was definitely not the answer.

1. The killing of Odreman came a week after the killing of Serra, not two days.

2. The quote from Odreman was “las Matemáticas no fallan”, not “mientan”.

But, your premise is correct. We are all in the dark as to what is really going on here. However, I will speculate that whatever it is, Maduro understood it well. I base that on his call for “unidad” amongst Chavismo immediately after Serra’s death. If he did not understand that this was an internal matter, instead of the external conspiracy that was claimed, the call for Chavista unity would not make any sense.

It is rumored the murderers’ real objective was Serra’s safe. It’s a chavista gang war, the cubans who handle Maduro wanted something he kept to incriminate others.

The interesting side issue many have ignored is the close link between Santeria and chavismo. These guys are into heavy duty black magic rituals. Whatever got inside Fidel made him into a monster. I think it’s now working inside somebody in Venezuela. But it’s not Maduro.

Miguel, whoever kill Serra is not afraid of Diosdado. Remember that Serra was Diosdado’s delfin. I have been informed that they were partners of sorts in dodgy deals and encounters with unsavoury characters.

Now there’s a number of possibilities: 1) Serra turned on Diosdado and paid with his life; 2) Diosdado decided to get rid of Serra; 3) none of the above, and someone seeking vengeance against either of them for whatever reason killed Serra.

In all scenarios though, this can only be described as settling of accounts inside chavismo. I disagree with Bruni about all this being a tragedy. It is but the only logical and expectable consequence of chavismo’s 15 years association with and pandering to criminals, because that’s what chavismo is: a pack of criminals agglutinated around power and its trappings (you would know about that Bruni). Chavez somewhat could keep orden en la pea, but nobody inside Venezuela has the gravitas that he had, and now it would appear -one can only hope- that chavismo has entered into its Reservoir Dogs-style gran finale.

Alek, without following Serra case closely, there are many clues and inconsistencies. Serra was killed by the powers at large. The kill order came from the highest levels and those with knowledge are at or near the top. The cover-up is where many clues are evident. Serra was not sleeping with his assistant as the regime wanted you to believe. Jorge Rodriguez went as far as saying they where married but her family always said the truth, it was platonic. One look at her pictures and you have your answer. Who was Serra known to date? This is where it gets tricky. If Serra was in the closet and a pedophile with incidents on file, then he becomes a liability. Serra obviously was aware that coming out was a liability but was not overly concerned about his security. There was no round-the-clock protection for example. A child sexual predator is a very despicable person and someone at the top had this and other motives in mind. They just wait for the right time. Mafia boss and ladies man John Gotti killed one of his soldiers who abused women. Serra did not see it coming. All the dead where marked for death for something they did in the past. When they time comes, they roll them up together similar to Danilo Anderson.

Why was Serra killed? What was the connection between Serra and Odreman? Why did the police decide to raid Odreman’s building? We may never know the answers to these questions, but what seems clear is that Chavismo is so deeply fragmented that a civilian like Maduro can’t control it any longer.

I have been saddened by the human tragedy of the two events. First the chavista whizz kid, with all his constradictions and illogical ways of thinking, was just a kid. Next Odreman despertely trying to tell something to protect his life, and then getting killed nonetheless one hour later.

What a waste of human lives, of resources, of morality…what a tragedy of a country we have become.

To me, I think Odreman was not using the saying about the maths in a correct way. He may have heard the saying and repeated in his speech without totally grasping its significance. It seems to me that he wanted to tell that what seems evident is evident. A dog is a dog is a dog.