Forecast calls for $106.7 billion in bizjets in next eight years

FAIRFAX, Va. — A total of 7,417 business aircraft valued at $106.7 billion will be produced between 2005-2014.

That’s the prediction from the Teal Group in its 15th annual world business aircraft production forecast. This compares to the 14th annual forecast, which called for 6,413 business jets worth $91.7 billion to be produced in 2004-2013.

About 40% of the jets produced over the eight year forecast period will be Class Four and Five (high-end) models.

The high end of the market is a much safer bet than the low end, claims Richard Aboulafia, lead analyst for Teal Group’s World Military & Civil Aircraft Briefing. “We remain air taxi agnostics, although we do see a market for 1,265 very light jets (VLJs), including 600 Cessna Citation Mustangs,” he said. “We’re skeptical of more than one or two new manufacturers bringing VLJs to market.”

The biggest risk to the forecast is fractional provider demand, said Aboulafia. “About 40% of the much vaunted backlog is for fractional ownership company orders that are completely flexible,” he said. “The rest of the backlog is basically unverifiable. If the fractional industry fails to make money, these orders could disappear.”

Gulfstream will be the market leader, garnering 25% of the bizjet market over the next 10 years, the forecast predicts. Bombardier is next with 23.5%; then Cessna with 20.2%. Dassault will get 18.7% and Raytheon 11.2%.