Lessons of war

It was on this day 100 years ago that the “shot heard around the world” was fired. In Sarajevo, Gavrilo Princip assassinated Archduke Franz Ferdinand and lit the touchpaper for an apocalyptic war. In the days that followed, it was far from certain that conflict would develop, as Austro-Hungary stalled in its response and the diplomatic machinery of Europe creaked into life. Yet when one country after another finally declared war, civilisation fell like a pack of cards.

The anniversary is a chance to reflect on those who bravely gave their lives in service of their country. It is also an opportunity to note how fragile world peace can be. In 1914, the European powers were not oblivious to the tensions that existed between them. But they were unprepared for a potential escalation – and for just how awful the result could be.

Today we also live in a world full of points of potential global conflict. The civil war continues in Syria. Fundamentalist Sunnis threaten to partition Iraq. Russia menaces the independence of Ukraine – and some worry that it could extend its meddling to countries in the Baltics that are under Nato guarantee. To be aware of these dangers and to be militarily prepared for them is not to be gung-ho. It is a mark of realism. That is why The Telegraph has consistently argued that Britain needs the best defences that it can afford. We have to have the capacity to respond to situations that are sometimes beyond prediction.

Of course, jaw-jaw will always be a preferable option to war-war – which is why we also need the kind of swift-moving, intelligent diplomacy that was sadly lacking in 1914. But a strong defence is the most vital insurance policy. We no longer have the luxury of imagining, as the British did a century ago, that something happening in a far-flung part of the world will have no consequences for us. It is no use commemorating a tragedy if we forget its lessons.