Category Archives: Reorganization

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FAA and other industry players have been using some incredibly phony sales pitches for well over a decade now, in their coordinated effort to sell NextGen as ‘transformational’. One of those false pitch points is the claim that NextGen will do away with commercial flights flying zig-zag routes across the nation, from one electronic navaid to the next. Readers are led to believe that today’s air navigation is constrained by these locations, and a lot of people get fooled, simply because the vast majority of us are not trained and employed in a way that would cause us to know better. Well, today’s air navigation is NOTconstrained that way, and frankly has not been so constrained for many decades. Even as early as the 1970s, entire airline fleets were configured for direct navigation using inertial navigation systems, followed by many new and improved systems including Omega, Loran, GPS, etc.

It’s a fact, and an embarrassment on FAA, that for each of the airspace redesigns in recent years, FAA and contractors have created thousands of pages of slick documentation… and every documentation package, for each airspace redesign, has at least one copy of this image (or a close variation):

The graphic clearly implies that ‘current’ navigation is via zigzags over navaids. All you have to do is study actual flight routes, at a website like Flightaware. Everyday, multiple websites upload data for tens of thousands of U.S. commercial flights; for each of those days, you could spend a week or longer reviewing every individual flight history, and chances are you would NOTfind even one flight wasting time and energy on navaid-to-navaid zigzags.

So, it looks like all that propaganda is now taking a big victim: even the esteemed Wall Street Journal now believes we need NextGen to advance us past airplanes that ‘bounce from one radio point to the next…’!

See also:

FAA’s PBN Brochure – this is the slick brochure marking what appears to be the start of FAA’s propaganda campaign to sell NextGen. The key deception: claiming zigzag routes happen routinely and can be eliminated. (October 2009, 2-pages)

FAA has posted the official traffic counts for calendar year 2016, so another analysis can be done to see how much aviation activity has declined in the U.S. This analysis is important as it fully debunks – using FAA’s own data, no less – one of the core lies being used by FAA and others while trying to sell both ATC privatization and NextGen: the false claim that air traffic is ‘increasingly congested’.

The reality is quite the opposite: the U.S. aviation system is shockingly decongested, with activity depressed far below levels two decades ago. At the vast majority of airports with ATC (and these are the airports with reliable traffic counts), operations (landings and takeoffs) are down 30%, 40% even more than 70% from peak traffic years. There is a large ‘dead-zone’ of vastly underutilized airport infrastructure across the heart of the nation, most of it abandoned by FAA and the airlines; it stretches from St. Louis to Memphis to Pittsburgh to Detroit and on to Kansas City, coinciding with much of the region that tipped the election to Donald Trump. The ‘reliever airports’ developed by FAA in the 80’s and 90’s are relieving nothing. Indeed, these airports are increasingly serving only an elite few, as FAA continues to direct air passenger taxes toward expanding and maintaining these facilities. This is a classic example of the masses paying to subsidize those who least need a subsidy … primarily to enable elites to zip about in their private jets or via expensive air charter services, staying away from the TSA hassles while using their own network of smaller secured airports.

FAA’s airport operations count database goes backto 1990, and is searchable via the ATADS-OPSNET webpage. For this analysis, the annual operations data was compiled for 86 airports, including all of the ‘ASPM-77’ airports and nine other airports that have previously been studied by aiREFORM. It is reasonable to assume that FAA’s ASPM airport list essentially includes all of the most significant commercial airports, accounting for over 99% of all routes flown for both passengers and cargo. That said, the list is also a bit odd for the airports it does not include, most of which were busy GA training fields in 2016, such as: Deer Valley, AZ (DVT, with 370K ops in 2016), Centennial, CO (APA, with 332K ops), Daytona Beach, FL (DAB, with 307K ops), and Sanford, FL (SFB, with 289K ops).

The 86 airports are divided into four groups below. The first three groups comprise the 36 busiest U.S. airports since 1990; i.e., these are the 36 airports known to have had at least one year averaging 1,000 operations per day, in the historical record going back to 1990. The first group includes (11) airline hubs that are generally not declining; the second group includes (16) airline hubs that have already declined substantially; and the third group includes (9) non-hub airports (serving primarily general aviation, aka ‘GA’). The fourth group, includes the 50 other key U.S. airports, which are slower, as none of them has ever achieved an annual average of 1,000 daily operations.

Here’s a closer analysis of the groups:

This First Group (below) provides a ranked listing of the eleven primarily-commercial airports that show sustained performance. For 2016, two of these airports were in their peak year (SFO and JFK); the nine other airports each declined no more than 13% from peak year operations levels. These airports have the following characteristics:

each of these airports had a Peak Year in their history, with traffic exceeding 1,000 daily operations; only MCO (Orlando) did not sustain that performance in 2016.

notice that each airport is nearly pure commercial traffic; at each of these airports, 95% to 99% of operations are air carrier or air taxi.

notice also, each airport had less than 5% local traffic (most had zero local pattern operations).

these airports tend to be major ‘hubs’, where the airlines schedule more flights than are needed to serve the local community; thus, noise and pollution impacts on neighborhoods are increased, so that the airlines can bolster profits by accommodating many ‘through-passengers’.

Airport

2016 Total Operations

2016 % Local

2016 % Comm

Peak Year

Peak Year Total Ops

2016 v PkYr

ATL (Atlanta, GA)

898,356

99%

2007

991,627

-9%

ORD (Chicago, IL)

867,635

99%

2004

992,471

-13%

LAX (Los Angeles, CA)

696,890

96%

2000

783,684

-11%

DEN (Denver, CO)

572,520

99%

2010

635,458

-10%

CLT (Charlotte, NC)

545,742

95%

2013

557,955

-2%

JFK (Queens, NY)

458,707

98%

2016

458,707

0%

SFO (San Francisco, CA)

450,391

97%

2016

450,391

0%

EWR (Newark, NJ)

431,214

97%

1997

467,443

-8%

SEA (Seattle, WA)

412,170

99%

2000

445,677

-8%

LGA (Flushing, NY)

374,487

98%

2006

406,211

-8%

MCO (Orlando, FL)

323,914

95%

2007

367,860

-12%

average change:

-7%

The Second Group (below) provides a ranked listing of the sixteen primarily-commercial airports that have NOTshown sustained performance. A quick review of this group shows:

each of these airports had a Peak Year in their history, with traffic exceeding 1,000 daily operations; in 2016, nine of the airports sustained that performance (though with an average decline of 25% from Peak Year), while seven of the airports now average below 1,000 ops/day (with an average decline of 50% from Peak Year).

notice that, as with the first group, each airport had less than 5% local traffic, and each airport is predominantly commercial. I.e., air carrier and air taxi traffic accounts for 85% to 99% of total operations; twelve airports were 90% or higher commercial, and only Honolulu (HNL), Washington-Dulles (IAD), Pittsburgh (PIT) and Salt Lake City (SLC) had less than 90% commercial traffic.

these airports tend to be lesser ‘hubs’, former hubs, or non-hubs.

the bottom five airports [Washington-Dulles (IAD), Memphis (MEM), St. Louis (STL), Pittsburgh (PIT), and Cincinnati (CVG)] illustrate the consequences of wholesale hub abandonment by airlines. In each case, a dominant airline typically was having difficulty getting tax or labor concessions from the community, so they chose to abandon billions of dollars worth of terminal, runway, and other infrastructure, in the pursuit of marginal profits.

Airport

2016

2016 % Local

2016 % Comm

Peak Year

Peak Year Total Ops

2016 v PkYr

DFW (Dallas – Ft Worth, TX)

672,748

99%

1997

934,624

-28%

LAS (Las Vegas, NV)

535,740

92%

2006

619,474

-14%

IAH (Houston, TX)

470,780

98%

2007

603,641

-22%

PHX (Phoenix, AZ)

440,643

95%

2000

638,757

-31%

MIA (Miami, FL)

414,234

95%

1995

576,936

-28%

MSP (Minneapolis – St Paul, MN)

412,898

97%

2004

540,727

-24%

BOS (Boston, MA)

395,811

96%

1998

515,788

-23%

PHL (Philadelphia, PA)

394,022

96%

2005

536,153

-27%

DTW (Detroit, MI)

393,427

98%

1999

559,548

-30%

SLC (Salt Lake City, UT)

320,259

85%

2005

455,214

-30%

HNL (Honolulu, HI)

305,608

80%

1992

403,708

-24%

IAD (Washington-Dulles, VA)

292,124

87%

2005

553,021

-47%

MEM (Memphis, TN)

224,883

90%

2003

402,362

-44%

STL (St Louis, MO)

190,517

95%

1995

517,961

-63%

PIT (Pittsburgh, PA)

141,630

89%

1997

457,732

-69%

CVG (Cincinnati, OH)

137,225

95%

2004

515,851

-73%

average change:

-36%

The Third Group (below) provides a ranked listing of the nine busiest general aviation airports that historically had a Peak Year with traffic exceeding 1,000 daily operations. Only one of these airports has shown a sustained performance: Deer Valley (DVT), a major training airport in the Phoenix area. A quick review of this group shows:

only one of these airports has more than 36% commercial (air carrier and air taxi) operations; five of the airports have less than 25% commercial operations.

the outlier is Oakland (OAK), which is a unique airport that has historically operated as two separate airports, even with separate ATC towers. It has served as a major hub for Southwest on the east side of the Bay Area, but aside from that is essentially a non-hub.

even with major training airports (which often cater to students from around the world), the decline in operations is profound. For Florida, the two listed airports averaged a 22% decline; for California, the four listed airports averaged a 52% decline from Peak Year.

when airport flight schools import students, the flight school expands profits while airport neighbors endure substantially higher impacts; not just noise, but also air pollutants, including toxic exhaust from the leaded fuel still used in most small airplanes and helicopters. This is a serious issue for airport neighbors, in terms of both health and quality-of-life. Hillsboro, OR (HIO) is another example (see further down, in the Fourth Group); here, the Hillsboro Aero Academy gets cover from the Port of Portland and FAA while imposing their impacts.

Airport

2016

2016 % Local

2016 % Comm

Peak Year

Peak Year Total Ops

2016 v PkYr

DVT (Phoenix, AZ)

370,034

65%

2006

406,507

-9%

APA (Englewood, CO)

332,111

47%

1998

466,267

-29%

DAB (Daytona Beach, FL)

307,333

47%

36%

2001

373,812

-18%

SNA (Santa Ana, CA)

300,354

30%

36%

1991

569,241

-47%

LGB (Long Beach, CA)

294,886

52%

1994

488,313

-40%

SFB (Sanford, FL)

289,312

55%

36%

2001

397,557

-27%

OAK (Oakland, CA)

222,799

15%

67%

1999

524,205

-57%

VNY (Van Nuys, CA)

213,566

31%

1999

598,564

-64%

BFI (Seattle, WA)

169,641

26%

1994

422,804

-60%

average change:

-39%

The Fourth Group (below) provides a ranked listing of fifty additional airports, none of which has had Peak Year traffic exceeding 1,000 daily operations (at least not since 1990). A quick review of this group shows:

these airports tend to be either minor commercial hubs heavily dominated by one airline, or general aviation airports.

the extent of decline is again profound, averaging 38% for the whole group.

The one most significant outlier in this list is Bellingham, WA (BLI). Here, we have an airport near the Canadian border, catering to passengers who cross the US-Canada border to catch cheaper flights. When the Canadian ATC system was privatized, a schedule of steep fees and taxes was imposed to generate needed revenues. Niche airlines like Allegiant took advantage of this, offering scant flight schedules (often just one or two trips per week) out of airports within a few hours’ drive of Canadian residents. Impacted communities include: Bellingham, Flint, Toledo, Niagara Falls, Ogdensburg, Plattsburgh, Burlington, and Bangor. The result, again, was airline profits and a tiny few local part-time jobs, with uncompensated aviation impacts on airport neighbors.

Washington-Reagan (DCA) is an emerging hub. Here, we have a major commercial airport near the Capitol, growing quickly and increasingly impacting neighborhoods, but its growth comes from the downsizing of two other DC-area airports; i.e., both Washington-Dulles (IAD) and Baltimore-Washington (BWI) are declining as their seat capacity and operations are shifted closer in to the nation’s capitol.

Dallas-Love (DAL) is another emerging hub. In this case, we have an airport for which FAA and Congress imposed restrictions, way back in the 1960s, to prop up the new major hub at DFW. Those restrictions ended a few years ago, so now Southwest is busily growing their DAL schedule to destinations previously not allowed. [Interestingly, the same pattern of lifted restrictions applies to the DC area; when federal funds were used in the 1960s to develop IAD, restrictions were imposed on DCA, but now that the restrictions are lifted, IAD is being largely abandoned.]

Airport

2016

2016 % Local

2016 % Comm

Peak Year

Peak Year Total Ops

2016 v PkYr

DCA (Washington-Reagan, VA)

299,670

98%

2000

342,790

-13%

FLL (Ft Lauderdale, FL)

290,239

87%

2005

330,967

-12%

ANC (Anchorage, AK)

279,861

68%

1997

318,080

-12%

MDW (Chicago, IL)

253,046

85%

2004

339,670

-26%

BWI (Baltimore-Washington, MD)

248,585

94%

2001

323,771

-23%

PDX (Portland, OR)

227,709

90%

1997

329,790

-31%

DAL (Dallas, TX)

224,193

73%

2000

256,787

-13%

HOU (Houston, TX)

202,106

71%

1997

262,892

-23%

HIO (Hillsboro, OR)

197,763

58%

2008

260,957

-24%

SAN (San Diego, CA)

196,935

95%

1995

245,280

-20%

BNA (Nashville, TN)

194,758

80%

1993

315,049

-38%

RDU (Raleigh-Durham, NC)

193,453

73%

2000

296,434

-35%

AUS (Austin, TX)

192,032

68%

2003

222,100

-14%

TPA (Tampa, FL)

189,682

88%

2000

278,632

-32%

TEB (Teterboro, NJ)

177,606

42%

2000

282,847

-37%

HPN (White Plains, NY)

164,511

43%

1999

222,274

-26%

SAT (San Antonio, TX)

164,393

66%

1998

273,345

-40%

IND (Indianapolis, IN)

162,294

90%

2000

259,860

-38%

SJC (San Jose, CA)

160,509

79%

1991

340,875

-53%

SDF (Louisville, KY)

156,200

91%

1994

184,653

-15%

SJU (San Juan, PR)

154,727

89%

2000

236,903

-35%

PBI (West Palm Beach, FL)

144,527

58%

1993

233,558

-38%

TUS (Tucson, AZ)

137,561

22%

37%

2005

284,555

-52%

OGG (Maui, HI)

136,654

85%

1999

188,387

-27%

MSY (New Orleans, LA)

134,263

90%

1994

175,493

-23%

ABQ (Albuquerque, NM)

133,828

10%

55%

2002

254,568

-47%

BUR (Burbank, CA)

132,391

21%

48%

1991

224,033

-41%

ISP (Islip, NY)

124,164

47%

2000

238,239

-48%

MCI (Kansas City, MO)

122,844

97%

1999

219,956

-44%

CLE (Cleveland, OH)

118,653

92%

2000

331,899

-64%

MKE (Milwaukie, WI)

113,715

87%

1999

221,866

-49%

SMF (Sacramento, CA)

111,187

91%

2007

180,037

-38%

JAX (Jacksonville, FL)

103,788

70%

1999

161,539

-36%

BUF (Buffalo, NY)

97,605

16%

72%

2000

165,334

-41%

OMA (Omaha, NE)

96,275

71%

1999

188,216

-49%

BDL (Windsor Locks, CT)

94,812

81%

1999

183,444

-48%

BHM (Birmingham, AL)

94,401

53%

1991

180,961

-48%

ONT (Ontario, CA)

91,671

80%

1994

159,895

-43%

BLI (Bellingham, WA)

84,600

32%

29%

2000

89,730

-6%

RSW (Ft Myers, FL)

79,151

89%

2005

96,148

-18%

OXR (Oxnard, CA)

74,151

55%

1993

137,933

-46%

BTV (Burlington, VT)

71,133

26%

37%

1991

123,146

-42%

PVD (Providence, RI)

70,088

17%

62%

1999

156,366

-55%

PSP (Palm Springs, CA)

55,919

55%

2002

109,509

-49%

MHT (Manchester, NH)

55,537

73%

1993

116,272

-52%

DAY (Dayton, OH)

51,854

76%

1991

189,896

-73%

SWF (Newburgh, NY)

43,851

21%

26%

1999

168,603

-74%

SLE (Salem, OR)

34,646

32%

2007

101,800

-66%

RFD (Rockford, IL)

34,356

21%

30%

1991

114,593

-70%

GYY (Gary, IN)

25,844

31%

1995

64,725

-60%

average change:

-38%

Overall, ATADS data shows the ASPM-77 airports increasing commercial operations by 2%, from 2015 to 2016. But, the total remains 14% below system peak year (2000) and below annual totals for all years from 1993 through 2011. And, most importantly, if you separate out the main airports the few major airlines are increasingly focusing on, the operations at all other commercial airports are routinely down 30% or more from peak years. What we are watching is a slow reconfiguration by the airlines, to rely on roughly a dozen main ‘superHub’ airports, while gutting and even abandoning service at hundreds of communities.

It is bad enough that the mainstream media tries every trick in the book to manipulate the outcome of our major elections … and, more often than not, they succeed. Their greed and power know no boundaries. No surprise, then, that the media applies these same propaganda tactics to prop up industries and bogus programs, such as NextGen and the Av-Gov Complex co-conspirators’ latest stab at privatizing ATC.

A new opinion piece was published yesterday by the Wall Street Journal editors. One reader’s comments summarize it very well: “…Although I think the FAA iscompletely inept and has bungled the NextGen rollout on all levels, some of the WSJ’s statements were very unfair (aka the old ‘World War II technology’ argument), and I fear the airlines being in charge even more.”

Another reader’s comments are drawn from his profession, as an airline pilot with extensive knowledge about labor and aviation politics:

“This article has absolutely nothing in it except for many errors and convenient omissions. For example, the comparison to the 1960’s is totally inaccurate because today all aircraft have the ability to fly direct, point-to-point with GPS and other similar navigation devices that all airliners have, even the “older” ones. The United States has complete, 100% radar coverage, so the statements referring to enroute delays are totally incorrect. Plus, it states that Schuster’s proposal “isn’t perfect” without pointing out what those imperfections are.

This is “airline deregulation” all over again, but this time targeting ATC. As far as FAA “oversight” goes, just look at the fines the airlines have accumulated for improper maintenance—and those are only the cases that were caught.

The true problem lies in the terminal areas of the busiest airports and neither NextGen nor any other fancy-sounding baloney has come even close to resolving that. All it has done is increase the noise levels for airport neighbors.”

Here’s a PDF of aiREFORM’s analysis of the WSJ piece, with numerous rebuttal notes added as footnotes:

Click on the image below for a scrollable view; the PDF file may be downloaded.

Clearly, this will not be the last of an ongoing series of lame propaganda pieces. The collusion by members of the Av-Gov Complex – called a ‘collaboration’ – will not end until they pull off yet another change that serves industry profits at the expense of everyone else. A Congress weakened and compromised by too much focus on fundraising may eventually capitulate to this fraudulent campaign.

Democracy in America, 2016. Our elected officials continue to serve special interests only, while ignoring the issues and growing inequalities that are destroying the not-too-distant future.

Aviation is a major player in this game. Those who are wealthy enough to own an airplane are golden: we coddle them, hoping they may give us a handout. Those with less wealth? Well, they still pay taxes to fix their beater car so they can buy gas and remain just mobile enough to not get fired from one of their two minimum wage part-time jobs.

In this example, legislation was passed in 2012 on the claim that it would ‘level the playing field’ for aircraft maintenance facilities in Idaho, matching the sales tax exemptions on aircraft parts then existing in 23 other states. The state legislature accepted the additional claim that jobs would be created, but demanded no proof that this was even true. Obviously, since airplane repairs and upgrades will happen with or without passage of the legislation, the simple fact is any new Idaho jobs would require elimination of the same jobs in other states. Oh, and the tax exemption is only for out-of-state aircraft; thus, when the legislation passed, Idaho owners became enticed to fly to another state for their repairs.

The whole scheme is absurd. And these tax exemptions do not appear from a vacuum. They are a result of focused lobbying activities, which include donating to reelection funds as a matter of routine. If you are an aviation lobbyist like NBAA.org, you will not only produce documents like the May 2003 report on aviation taxes state-by-state, but you will also advocate for further tax exemptions to attract new memberships.

It seems peculiar that FAA has preempted local management of aviation noise and air pollution impacts, yet FAA looks the other way, allowing local/state regulations that amount to aviation job predation. Perhaps it is time for FAA to turn this ship around, and focus on supporting a NATIONAL Airspace System. How? In general, impacts and environmental matters should be LOCALLY controlled, while safety and general economic policies should be FEDERALLY controlled. Here’s two ideas:

Impose regulations that ensure consistency across all states – removing local/state barriers, to achieve the widest distribution of aviation jobs.

Re-empower local officials – as well as the right of local citizens to vote on aviation noise matters – so as to allow local emplacement of tailored environmental protections consistent with aviation safety.

An aviation regulator, serving the People and not just the industry, would be very different from today’s FAA. How about we ‘transform’ FAA into that new and better regulator?

(a sampling of headlines/articles generated today in a Google Alert on the word ‘FAA’)

The ridiculous scheme to privatize the U.S. ATC system appears to have died a quick death, but give Bill Shuster, Nick Calio, and Paul Rinaldi credit for putting a lot of effort into it.

The legislative proposal was introduced with great fanfare on February 3rd – even a slick video, loaded with spin (not sure who paid for that production!?!, though it looks like an A4A production). The rollout was after years of work and hundreds of meetings with so-called ‘stakeholders’, to craft the precise language that best served their interests. A fatal error was that the ‘stakeholders’ did not include airport neighbors, airline customers, environmental representatives or ANYONEin the general public. As has become routine in recent years, the ‘stakeholders’ set was limited to parties that stood to personally gain from scheme implementation: the airlines, the airline lobbyists, the air traffic controllers lobbyist (i.e., the union NATCA), and potential ATC contractors.

The need for Transformational Reform of FAA/ATC remains. Let’s hope our Congressional leaders get to work pass REALlegislation, including:

restoration of local authority, including the power of local residents to vote democratically on airport activity limits, so as to ensure local citizens lead in the management of airport impacts, and to ensure the airport serves the local community first, industry last.

a complete reconfiguration of the aviation fee & tax structure, so as to:

In an ideal world, our elected officials would tend to the business of keeping our transportation modes moving, such as by non-politically passing FAA’s re-authorization in a timely manner. This world, lately, is not looking too ideal.

BUT, we do get to watch the circus acts and all the AIPs at Work. And, even though it is just video, you can still smell the elephant dung. It comes today via this livestream of the ‘markup’ session for FAA’sBill Shuster’sAirline for America’s AIRR Act, scheduled to start at 10AM EST:

Here is the 9.5-hour video. Actual hearing starts at time 0:11:43. Went into recess for just over an hour at 5:56:30, resuming at 7:13:58. A ’10-minute break’ at 8:50:55, resuming at 9:16:46.

…with a new Record High. The Keeling Curve atmospheric CO2 at Mauna Loa measured 402.84 parts per million (ppm) on May 31st, and the May average will soon be announced. A year ago, the May average was 399.76 ppm. Two years ago it was 396.78 ppm; in 2004 it was 380.63 ppm; in 1994 it was 361.68 ppm. Atmospheric CO2 ppm is not just increasing — it is accelerating. In the meantime, government officials fail to address this emerging problem which will raise ocean levels, intensify weather, and destroy crops. This puts everyone at risk, not just of ‘inconvenience’, but of species collapse.

Aviation has an exceptionally high rate of CO2 production. An hour spent on a commercial airliner is roughly equivalent to ten hours spent driving a car. In fact, a concerned citizen who minimizes energy consumption can destroy all of their gains by just one long-distance flight. Substituting biofuels is not a solution, as biofuels still contribute to the growing CO2 levels, which are now far beyond what any humans have ever experienced. The only real solutions will include aggressive actions to reduce aviation, such as:

the curtailment of aviation subsidies that encourage excessive air travel, especially by businesses and corporations;

substantial reduction of air cargo shipment, especially those on all-cargo fleets;

and, a careful management of the overall aviation system, to eliminate fuel-inefficient doglegs such as are done when Super-Hubs are used (Atlanta, O’Hare, DFW, Newark, and Charlotte, are among the worst).

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