Poll: Trudeau 11 points behind NDP in home riding of Papineau

Rebel Staff

Is Justin Trudeau in danger of losing in his home riding of Papineau in the Oct. 19 election?

Yes, according to a new poll commissioned by the New Democratic Party.

The CROP poll released Thursday shows NDP candidate Anne Lagacé Dowson, an award-winning former CBC/Radio-Canada journalist, leading the Liberal leader in voter intentions.

Support for Dowson in the Montreal-area riding currently stands at 46 per cent compared to 35 per cent for Trudeau. Bloc Québécois candidate Maxime Claveau, a graduate of the Conservatoire de musique de Montréal and teacher, is running in third place with 10 per cent of poll respondents backing his campaign. Conservative candidate Yvon Vadnais, another former journalist, has five per cent. The Green Party nominee Danny Polifroni is sitting at 4 per cent.

Speaking to the CBC in August, Dowson said:

“I think that this riding is eminently winnable. It has been reconfigured since the last election, there are a lot of disaffected Bloc voters who are looking for a progressive place to put their vote, I think there are disenchanted Liberals also. People want something different.”

Based on telephone calls to 375 voters in the riding from Sept. 11-14, the poll has a margin of error of five percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

CROP pollsters also asked voters who they think would make the best prime minister, the National Post reports.

NDP leader Tom Mulcair received 50 per cent in this category, while 26 per cent backed Trudeau. Twenty-four per cent either declined to respond or had no answer to give.

Trudeau has represented the Montreal, Que., riding of Papineau since 2008.

Comments

Cathy Bowslaugh, I’m sure the poll is flawed, but even a “flawed” poll is encouraging. It means there’s enough diversity of voter sentiment in the riding to suggest that Trudeau retaining his own seat is less than certain, even if the NDP fudged the numbers a bit. They wouldn’t be able to fudge the numbers if they weren’t close. That’s enough of a hope for me to hang on to for the present. Besides, the only poll that counts is the one on election day… I’m still hopeful. And Henry Reardon, other leaders may have lost their own riding and retained the leadership of their party, but I believe good fortune has primarily been reserved for leaders who managed to lead their party to victory. When leaders lose elections, as well as their own seat, that leader is generally toast. At least they are if the other members of the caucus who managed to get elected have any sense. I don’t expect the Liberals to form the next government, do you?

It would make almost no difference at all if Trudeau lost his own riding. There have been plenty of precedents for this in the past. I seem to recall that Mackenzie King lost his own riding twice yet still led the country for something like 25 years. If Trudeau loses his riding, some other Liberal will simply step aside and let Trudeau run in his/her riding. In exchange, they will get a very fine patronage plum, like a Senate seat or a judgeship.

Losing his own riding would let the other parties get in a few digs and then everyone would move on with Trudeau sitting in a new riding. Not that he’d likely spend much time there.

Cathy Bowslaugh said:
“Although I’d like to see Trudeau lose his seat, I believe this poll commissioned by the NDP is flawed.
”http://blogs.canoe.com/davidakin/politics/pollsters-fear-dubious-ndp-poll-on-trudeau-hurts-credibility-of-their-industry/“>http://blogs.canoe.com/davidakin/politics/pollsters-fear-dubious-ndp-poll-on-trudeau-hurts-credibility-of-their-industry/” Hmm……makes one wonder if the national polls are not similarly skewed…………

I would note that the CBC did a piece trivializing this poll ….another piece saying Harper and Trudeau were more or less tied in the debate….and the most important thing to come out in the debate was Harper’s use of the term “old stock” Canadians, a “gottcha” for the political correctness invigilators. So apparently Trudeau is still the CBC’s pick for king.

Why the NDP would release this party poll now is a bit of a mystery. They want to create doubts about Trudeau in Montreal and Quebec, but the NDP was supposedly in a handy lead in that province. They must know something that the rest of us don’t. (Other polls are showing Trudeau between 5 and 10% ahead in Papineau.)

That would be the best for the libs in the long run if he lost his seat. If he did want to get a real job, i’m thinking a bartender would be good fit. Better he preach his shit to some drunk than indoctrinate young kids in a make believe drama class.

If Justin Trudeau lost his seat, it would be the best possible outcome imaginable. Maybe then they could get back to being an actual centrist party with principles, other than their belief in the divine right to rule. I didn’t mind PM Lester Pearson. I probably wouldn’t have voted for him, but he stood for something, and he did give us the flag. If Justin Trudeau loses his seat, let’s hope and pray that the next leader they choose is a person of principle and integrity.

Even in his own riding, JT isn’t taken seriously any more. I guess most people in Canada, even in Quebec, don’t want a Prime Minister who doesn’t understand basic economics and who believes dictatorship is an admirable form of government. But unfortunately, many people seem to have been taken in by Mulcair’s phony moderate shtick. Harper needs to start reminding Canadians that NDP stands for ‘New Depression Party’, as they are proving now in Alberta. Four years from now that once thriving province will be an economic basket case, having been destroyed by the NDP (as they are now doing), and so will Canada be, if the NDP wins the next election. Don’t be fooled by Mulcair. The NDP is still a socialist party, but now their elites don’t believe in having an industrial economy any more; they prefer shared poverty. Vote Conservative if you want a first world standard of living after the next election and beyond.

Keith, poor goats, they never harmed anyone. How did the two of them become leaders of federal parties – especially the shiny pony. I/we should stop calling him the shiny pony, because we are insulting ponies all over the world. Just call him dickhead.

Trudeau is not ready for PM. On the debate held in Calgary, what a loud, aggressive child!!! That boy is so programmed by his team of advisors, I don’t even think who knows the meaning of what he is saying! He is a “puppet” and that is why every third word was “Steven Harper” out of his mouth! PM Harper could not even finish his sentence and that Trust Fund Child would just butt in. That commentator from the Globe and Mail should be ashamed! He allowed so much fighting my ears rang from J. Trudeau loud voice all night. I can hardly wait till Trudeau is humiliated! Good bye Trudeau!!! The abortionist!

My, underwhelming voters not only on the national stage, but even on his own home ground. No wonder why he and his handlers latched onto the “older stock, newer stock” issue in a very petty and pathetic manner.

Don’t worry dim-witted troodo. After this beating, you can go back to smoking that righteous chronic and run out the remainder of your life chatting with your trust baby buddies about “time and space”.