Monday’s are usually good days, especially when said Monday coincides with an event like month or quarter end.. I am going to hope “tax liquidation end” also qualifies as an event. If we can get past 10:30 A.M. On Monday with some stability and decent volume, we may see the return of the buying class.

Do you agree, jellybean?

You’re a creepy one, Ensign.

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The Summer of AAPL is here. Enjoy it (responsibly) while it lasts.
AFB Night Owl Team™
Thanks, Steve.

I think we need RobWill to crank out that pivot point diagram he always posts, though it might not be ready yet.

But Kevin, is your 611 based on resistance?

Usually-not this time-I think “that roads been traveled too much” for resistance. If the market goes that far-that’s my psychological level-just not in the first 30 minutes. If Apple goes that far and ‘it feels good’ and the market is with it-I’m in.

But at this point I’m worried about being in overnight-and if we don’t pass 621 (chart resistance) early and well by Tuesday-I may be out on Tuesday.

It’s not that I don’t believe in Apple-at this point I’m worried about the market.

PS I LOVE Pinky and The Brain-we may gap up after earnings-but if the rest of the market isn’t there-Apple may fall most of the day-it has in the past.

I think we need RobWill to crank out that pivot point diagram he always posts, though it might not be ready yet.

But Kevin, is your 611 based on resistance?

Usually-not this time-I think “that roads been traveled too much” for resistance. If the market goes that far-that’s my psychological level-just not in the first 30 minutes. If Apple goes that far and ‘it feels good’ and the market is with it-I’m in.

But at this point I’m worried about being in overnight-and if we don’t pass 621 (chart resistance) early and well by Tuesday-I may be out on Tuesday.

It’s not that I don’t believe in Apple-at this point I’m worried about the market.

PS I LOVE Pinky and The Brain-we may gap up after earnings-but if the rest of the market isn’t there-Apple may fall most of the day-it has in the past.

RG, at this point, reading several recent posts across various threads, I am reminded of November/December in general and specifically of your JAN’12 400-ish calls that never were. Yes, you weren’t feeling well, and yes, you had company; but you were also highly influenced by a prevailing bearish atmosphere (including Yours Truly). I do believe we were headed for another crash then. But what happened? The very next trading day after Black Friday—with everything pointing toward Armageddon—the central banks’ coordinated efforts intervened to save the day. Overnight, the landscape drastically changed. Again, in December, same thing with the ECB (IMF?). Now, the market has its first haircut (not even a haircut, really, more like a trim :D) in four months, and I’m thinking: here we go again…

I’m not quite sure, but I *suspect* that I’ve seen this movie before… The one where just when it looks like prophesies of doom and gloom will come to fruition, the superheroes show up and save the world.

So, I think it’s VERY important to avoid forecasting the next two weeks, to prepare for ANY outcome, and to let the market reveal itself. As Red says: plan the trade; trade the plan.

IMHO, an objective, unemotional game plan (like the one you mentioned) has a lot of merit—to the extent possible, neither greed- nor fear-driven. Something that balances upside and downside risk in proportions that suit YOUR profile, no one else’s.

RG, at this point, reading several recent posts across various threads, I am reminded of November/December in general and specifically of your JAN’12 400-ish calls that never were. Yes, you weren’t feeling well, and yes, you had company; but you were also highly influenced by a prevailing bearish atmosphere (including Yours Truly). I do believe we were headed for another crash then. But what happened? The very next trading day after Black Friday—with everything pointing toward Armageddon—the central banks’ coordinated efforts intervened to save the day. Overnight, the landscape drastically changed. Again, in December, same thing with the ECB (IMF?). Now, the market has its first haircut (not even a haircut, really, more like a trim :D) in four months, and I’m thinking: here we go again…

I’m not quite sure, but I *suspect* that I’ve seen this movie before… The one where just when it looks like prophesies of doom and gloom will come to fruition, the superheroes show up and save the world.

So, I think it’s VERY important to avoid forecasting the next two weeks, to prepare for ANY outcome, and to let the market reveal itself. As Red says: plan the trade; trade the plan.

IMHO, an objective, unemotional game plan (like the one you mentioned) has a lot of merit—to the extent possible, neither greed- nor fear-driven. Something that balances upside and downside risk in proportions that suit YOUR profile, no one else’s.

Thanks for the response, Ms. IPad. I am putting my game plan together, with what to do as the stock moves in 4 to 5 point increments. I will have my limit orders to sell covered calls and hedging calls as it goes higher - in increasing amounts, until it clears 418 to 422 - and maybe the same thing and/or buy weekly puts should it go lower; all depends on how the open looks.

I also realize that there could be head fakes, so I need to be aware of that, especially on the down side. I’ll figure out something. But I have all the signposts (Mace’s 597.94 on the downside and 621 wall on the upside, the Gap at 568, your pivot diagram (thank you), etc.) to aid me, thanks to you and the rest of the AFB.

But thanks for taking the time (and, by the way, you have a great memory).

We’re touching the lower BB on the daily—that was FAST! So this is where ordinarily I’d *start* scaling into longs.

We’re ridiculously oversold and due for a bounce any second now. Remember when all the headlines said we couldn’t sustain the parabolic rise, yet it went on? Well, here’s the flip side: this parabolic down is unsustainable.

The point is: one-sided (either side) cannot go on forever. There has to be ebb and flow. We “should” retest 600-ish. “Should,” of course doesn’t mean “will happen next.” As a bare minimum first step, buyers must enter on HUGE volume in order for bulls to reclaim 600.

... We’re ridiculously oversold and due for a bounce any second now. Remember when all the headlines said we couldn’t sustain the parabolic rise, yet it went on? Well, here’s the flip side: this parabolic down is unsustainable ...

So many possible patterns. One WAG based on past AAPL behavior from late Jul to mid Aug 2007 is to decline to 50-day EMA/SMA, bounce to 20-day EMA/SMA and bottom below $516.22 but not lower than $486.63. I interpret below $486 as certain fundamental deterioration known by smart monies but not make public yet. Above $486, I take it as normal ebb and flow.

I could see that scenario if we fail to break 644 on retest, and Summer’12 becomes deja vu of Summer’11. Operation Twist ends in June (?). But I *vastly* prefer the pattern where this retrace wave finishes at 568-545-ish max, then UUUUUUUUPPPPPPPPPPPP to 700+ :D

Disclosure: all spreads are JUL’12, OCT’12, JAN’13, or JAN’14. But only 30% cash now and trying very, very, very hard to resist buying everything in sight.