Gordon looks good to remain red hot

Posted: Friday, June 15, 2007

Bill MarxSporting News NASCAR Wire Service

Here's a look at the top five in points and five drivers to watch in Sunday's Citizens Bank 400 at Michigan International Speedway. All statistical references are for Cup races at Michigan unless otherwise indicated.

Top Five

1. Jeff Gordon. Gordon finished eighth and second at Michigan last year. He also qualifies well there: 4.7 in the past six races. His driver rating is 94.2, 10th best. Throw in how hot he has been this year, and I come up with another top-five finish.

2. Matt Kenseth. Roush Fenway drivers have the three best driver ratings for Michigan: Greg Biffle 118.1, Kenseth 111.3, Carl Edwards 109.8. So will that translate to victory? Kenseth has the only win by a Ford this season, and that was in the second week. Kenseth has dynamite numbers for Michigan and won there last August.

3. Denny Hamlin. Hamlin has a ninth and a 12th in his only two races at Michigan. He has been close all year, and there's no reason to expect anything different.

4. Jimmie Johnson. Johnson has never won at Michigan, and for him, his numbers are ho-hum: 12.1 average start, 15.6 average finish. In six of his 10 races, he hasn't led a lap, and in the past six races on the two-mile oval, he has led eight laps.

5. Jeff Burton. Like Johnson, Burton is winless at Michigan. But Burton is 0-for-26. He has had only four top-fives at the track, with the last in 2002, which is also the last time he led a lap there. His driver rating is an ugly 70.1. I could drag out more numbers, but you get the picture.

Five to watch

Kyle Busch, 10th. Busch hasn't set the world on fire in his four races at Michigan (11.8 average start, 26.2 average finish), but that's not why he's getting a mention. Next to Dale Earnhardt Jr., he will be the most-watched driver this weekend.

Martin Truex Jr., 11th. This is a momentum play. Truex is coming off a first and a third and, along with Busch and Junior, will be one of the more requested interviews this weekend. He finished 16th and 30th as a rookie last year. But he won the pole in each of his two Busch races and finished third and fourth.

Ryan Newman, 13th. Newman is as hot as any driver in the series. He has won the past three poles and four this season. He has finished second the past two weeks. His Michigan numbers are good, too, although in the five races since winning back-to-back races in 2003-04, his average finish is 16.2 with no top 10s.

Dale Earnhardt Jr., 14th. No surprise here. Junior could have a mediocre record at Michigan (which he has), and he'd still get a mention. He has only four top-10s in 15 races, but two came last year (third and sixth). The best news for Junior is there is only one seat in the car, so he is guaranteed about three hours of solitude.

Juan Pablo Montoya, 21st. I'm playing a hunch. I don't expect a win, but a little voice in my head is whispering "top 10" loud enough to drown out the other voice saying, "write about Kasey Kahne," who was first and fourth last year.