FROM VOLUME 2, NUMBER 8, AUGUST 1989

REPORTS...IMPACTS

The most direct impact expected is the northward movement of many crop
zones; a larger area of south Texas may be suitable for fruit and vegetable
production, and corn may be widely replaced by grain sorghum. In the western
part of the state, the most significant factor may be reduced water
availability; irrigation demand may increase, total cropland may decrease, and
as much as half of the piney woods of East Texas could disappear. Most of the
policy responses that the agricultural sector can use for adapting to or
reducing contributions to climate change involve making a transition to a less
energy- and input-intensive system. These goals should be adopted regardless of
global warming. Recommendations include reducing the use of nitrogen fertilizers
(which release the greenhouse gas nitrous oxide); developing strategies that
reduce the impact of direct sunlight and wind on crops; aggressively developing
water conservation strategies; restoring diversity to grasslands, wetlands and
forests; developing drought contingency plans; and increasing funding for
rainfall enhancement research.

The implications of the greenhouse effect for changes in the patterns of
animal disease in the United States were considered based on existing
literature, and potential economic effects were determined, as a basis for
making recommendations for further study. Because of the strong interdependency
of the world livestock industry, future study should not be limited to the
United States. Many animal diseases are kept in check by climate restrictions.
Animal diseases likely to become increasingly important with global warming fall
into three categories. Vector borne diseases (Lyme disease, anaplasmosis,
bluetongue, babiosis) may become increasingly important as larger areas become
suitable. Zoonotic diseases (including toxoplasmosis and worms) may become more
important as warm seasons lengthen. The present enormous threat of foreign
animal diseases (African swine fever, Rift Valley fever) could have an even
greater chance of becoming established. Several of the diseases examined involve
humans in some manner.