There once was a young woman who wanted to be popular, so she gave guys what they wanted. Many guys did indeed wanted to see her at first, but her reputation suffered when the guys learned that they were not the only ones to receive what she was giving. Another woman was tempted to also freely give the guys what they wanted, but she chose not to. Years later, it was the woman who kept her high standards who all the guys wanted to marry.

I am not as well connected at NGC as Peter is but I would agree completely with his take on this. NGC staff has told me that lowering their grading standards to match PCGS 70 numbers is NOT going to happen. This conversation was had in connection to the milk stained 2013 Is Panda Expo coins in particular but covered all of the MCC in general.

Even though NGC may seek to take the high road, there are so many collectors, especially new collectors, who arent confident at grading, and are seeking value, that they will buy a PCGS 69 over a nicer NGC 68 at the same price point.

Even though NGC may seek to take the high road, there are so many collectors, especially new collectors, who arent confident at grading, and are seeking value, that they will buy a PCGS 69 over a nicer NGC 68 at the same price point.

In that case why not buy NPGS ($2.50/coin to slab), or maybe ICG? In my experience their coins often sell for less than PCGS. I don't think that in the long run you can win in the grading game with a race to the bottom strategy of indiscriminately handing out high grades. If you could some of the now-extinct companies would be a giants. Eventually everyone tries to sell a coin and finds out what value a slab adds, if any, to their coins.

for some coins it is impossible to differentiate ms69 from ms70I'm not sure it is possible to deal with this situation. I thought that before PCGS had much more strict grading rules and getting ms70 from them was close to impossible. Looks like current "grading news" is just a way to catch up with NGC on capturing the number of people who want ms70 and thus sending coins to the place that grants them with higher probability.

The counter argument against liquidity boosting sale is ANACS and Home Shopping Network. ANACS was one of the three big grading companies, but when they became closely aligned with HSN and start selling many high grade coins that way, the perceived grade inflation pretty much relegate ANACS to the rank of ICG. It probably was profitable for ANACS for a while, but it didn't last. Now eBay doesn't even recognize ANACS slab as graded coin.

Then name of the game in coin grading is consistency and accuracy. NGC strives to meet these goals. They have repeatedly incorporated these standards as their primary objectives whether the coin was the first or last graded.

Whenever a grading service is perceived to have a sliding scale grading consistency their reputation will suffer as will the future value of their graded coins. This perception begs the question whether the coin I have graded now is the same as those graded in the past and those to be graded in the future, making it a tough coin to accurately value. Perhaps this is why NGC is the largest, most widely collected and perceived by many as the most consistent grading service.

If you are asking "In that case why not buy NPGS ($2.50/coin to slab), or maybe ICG? " and you dont know the answer, for someone who is a consultant to NGC, thats shocking.

Let me ask you this. What does Wall Street provide America with?

The answer is liquidity. For their shares, bonds mainly.

But here we're talking MCC. And how much liquidity does NPGS or ICG have compared to PCGS and NGC? Almost zero.

This is a game about grabbing the top spot for the firm to provide investors with the most liquidity through grading. And PCGS is breaking out into the lead.

To pay $2.50 and expect to get increased liquidity is not reasonable, but to access the higher liquidity of a PCGS 69 instead of an NGC 68, for around the same grading cost, thats good value at PCGS.

At the moment NPGS-graded coins are as liquid as the coins graded by any other company in China which is where it is being marketed. It may bring a different price than a NGC coin but there is no problem buying or selling it. The company may yet give more meaning to, "Buy the coin, not the label."

1. The degree to which an asset or security can be bought or sold in the market without affecting the asset's price. Liquidity is characterized by a high level of trading activity. Assets that can be easily bought or sold are known as liquid assets.

2. The ability to convert an asset to cash quickly. Also known as "marketability."

Who said we were just talking China? There are precisely zero NPGS coins on ebay.com right now. That is not the characteristic of a liquid market.

If the market for NPGS coins was liquid there would be many for sale on ebay as well as China. Why would anyone grade a coin for $2.50 that 99% of the people on ebay who know what a PCGS or NGC slab looks like wouldnt recognize? NPGS is an illiquid market except China. PCGS and NGC are liquid markets worldwide including China.

Its like US Treasury bonds which are a deep, liquid market with many buyers and sellers, many transactions, so lots of price data, tradeable in many cities in the world through a bank or broker.

Then Joe's Lemonade Stand of Nunavut's bonds, none for sale in New York or London, lots of sales in Nunuvut though. But how do you sell in Nunuvut? Not tradeable in many cities. So do you go to your state pension fund and tell them its ok to buy Joe's Lemonade Stand bonds because there is a market in Nunuvut?

The reason no Chinese sellers on ebay.com have NPGS coins for sale, while they have lots of PCGS and NGC, is there is no market or a very limited market. That means its illiquid.

1. The degree to which an asset or security can be bought or sold in the market without affecting the asset's price. Liquidity is characterized by a high level of trading activity. Assets that can be easily bought or sold are known as liquid assets.

2. The ability to convert an asset to cash quickly. Also known as "marketability."

Within China both conditions 1 and 2 are satisfied. The market there is more than 1 billion people. I would call that liquid. If a grading company is successful it will be easy to sell or buy the coins they grade. If the company fails then liquidity for its products is quite limited. NPGS is a new company. So far its products are liquid. I personally believe that in the long run quality and consistency will determine the success of a grading company and the marketability of its products.

Who said we were just talking China? There are precisely zero NPGS coins on ebay.com right now. That is not the characteristic of a liquid market.

The reason no Chinese sellers on ebay.com have NPGS coins for sale, while they have lots of PCGS and NGC, is there is no market or a very limited market. That means its illiquid.

Do you know what eBay's market share in China is? Essentially zero. A decade ago they were swept away by a then much smaller Chinese competitor, Taobao, after losing $300 million. There are other measures of market share, or liquidity, than eBay.

Has anyone else noticed this? Could the large number of PCGS 70's be due to more liberal grading at their recently-opened centers in mainland China?

Frankly, I can not see the change of MS70 in population report as evidence of PCGS has lower its grading standard, while no MS70 in NGC’s population report is an indication of more conservative grading standard. Perhaps, somebody can post pictures of the same grade coin (MS68-70) side-by-side to demonstrate the differences. Buy the coin, not the holder or label.

Here are a pictures of NGC graded 1912 Li Yuan Hung. The coin was over-graded significantly if the coin is genuine. (Imo, this is a questionable coin in a genuine NGC holder.). The pictures of PCGS genuine but ungradable also attached for comparison.

ANA definition of AU is “50% luster of silver coin still shown and no wear in design details. As shown in the picture, there is very little luster on the surface and the details, such as hair is not visible. The marked area suggests this coin may be questionable.

Please note that Imperial and Republic coins are just as liquidity as MCC inside China and PCGS is definitely being considered as favorable grading company among collectors.

Frankly, I can not see the change of MS70 in population report as evidence of PCGS has lower its grading standard

The single example that was most compelling to me was that there was only 1 PCGS MS70 1990LD G1/20 for years, and then in one submission 8 of 9 of the 1990LD G1/20 graded MS70 (PCGS #28987759-28987767). That, in combination with a number of other similar anecdotes, is difficult to explain outside of grade inflation.

Within China both conditions 1 and 2 are satisfied. The market there is more than 1 billion people. I would call that liquid. If a grading company is successful it will be easy to sell or buy the coins they grade. If the company fails then liquidity for its products is quite limited. NPGS is a new company. So far its products are liquid. I personally believe that in the long run quality and consistency will determine the success of a grading company and the marketability of its products.

Do you know what eBay's market share in China is? Essentially zero. A decade ago they were swept away by a then much smaller Chinese competitor, Taobao, after losing $300 million. There are other measures of market share, or liquidity, than eBay.

1 billion people isnt a market when 14% of them live on $1.25 or less a day (World Bank data, 2008). Chinese GDP (2012) is $6,000. US GDP is $50,000.

NPGS cant access 800 million people in Europe who, on average, have a GDP 10x China, the buying power of 8 billion Chinese, but they dont recognize NPGS.

I also realize there are other marketplaces than ebay in China. In Japan there is Yahoo as well. Then there are the big auctions like Heritage, Stacks, Hosane, etc.

In China on Taobao, in Yahoo Japan, and on ebay, and on those auctions, we find PCGS and NGC. But NPGS is scarcely found on ebay and Yahoo Japan. I have not seen NPGS in auctions.

If an American or European buys a collection of NPGS coins instead of PCGS or NGC, their sales avenues are a fraction of what is available for PCGS and NGC sellers.

There are many Chinese NGC and PCGS sellers on ebay and in auctions. If NPGS was so great and so liquid, why dont they put NPGS up for sale then?

It is because there is poor price discovery. It is because the NPGS brand isnt recognized outside of China and the seler will suffer a lower realized price. So, if a Chinese person has an NPGS MCC that is say a coin that begins appreciating in many markets, the NPGS holdered coin will have difficulty identifying buyers in the markets where NPGS isnt recognized. Therefore price discovery is impaired. Therefore, the first definition of liquidity:

"The degree to which an asset or security can be bought or sold in the market without affecting the asset's price."

-is impaired, and thus the item is illiquid.

Maybe one day there will be more silver Pandas minted than ASEs, but lets not get ahead of ourselves.

The single example that was most compelling to me was that there was only 1 PCGS MS70 1990LD G1/20 for years, and then in one submission 8 of 9 of the 1990LD G1/20 graded MS70 (PCGS #28987759-28987767). That, in combination with a number of other similar anecdotes, is difficult to explain outside of grade inflation.

Most long term collectors and knowledgeable dealers do not submit coin to a grading company unless the valuation of the coin is worth the trouble and the condition of the coin is good enough to make a cheap coin to become a grade rarity. IMO, those coins might be submitted by a very knowledgeable collector or dealer who specially picked the coins to make sure those coin will receive a grade at least MS69. For 1990 1/20 oz gold panda, if the coin is not MS69, you actually will not gain financially vs. OMP.

I wouldn't recommend to anyone to buy a coin graded by any company that has no grading or authenticity guaranty that I am aware of. I also agree that NPGS coins may be difficult to sell outside of China. However, within China I have seen quite a few NPGS slabs for sale in stores. They also sell without issue online and at auctions, albeit (as far as I can tell) at lower prices than NGC or PCGS.

I don't believe that NPGS has any interest in selling to foreign markets. There may even be some intellectual property issues that hinder them from doing so. The lack of overseas markets may be a long-term problem for the company but for the time being I doubt that they care. The China market is very valuable and that appears to be their target. If another grading company thinks a strategy of handing out higher grades and lowering standards to gain market share is the key to success in China I think they are wrong. There is already a company there (and maybe more to come!) that is already working that end of the business.

I also have to add that the idea that because China has a lower per capita income than some Western countries it's not a market is off base. China's middle class is larger than the entire population of the USA. As for the rich there are 20 Ferrari dealerships in the country – and the cars cost 3X as much as in the USA. ‘Nuff said. A company in China doesn't need to be global to be enormous. Just look at Tencent or Alibaba.

I also have to add that the idea that because China has a lower per capita income than some Western countries it's not a market is off base. China's middle class is larger than the entire population of the USA. As for the rich there are 20 Ferrari dealerships in the country – and the cars cost 3X as much as in the USA. ‘Nuff said. A company in China doesn't need to be global to be enormous. Just look at Tencent or Alibaba.

I agree. It is fact that China has many more millionaires, billionaires than USA. The Chinese are great savers of income. Many prople own multiple homes. The fancy Western cars' very high prices does not seem to deter the appetite of the wealthy. The have so much money that the high prices are of no concern to them. Yes, IMHO (and experiences) China is still Third-World in many ways, however China also most likely has the greatest amount of internal wealth created mostly illegally (by Western standards). The payoffs, bribery, blackmail, graft, and corruption that creates many (not all) wealthy Chinese, is widly accepted and common-knowledge. It's like a big club -- namely, the CCP!!!!

Pandaguy>>>I agree. It is fact that China has many more millionaires, billionaires than USA. The Chinese are great savers of income. Many prople own multiple homes. The fancy Western cars' very high prices does not seem to deter the appetite of the wealthy. The have so much money that the high prices are of no concern to them.<<<

Actually that statement is not true. The United States has 3x the number of Billionaires then China and many more Millionaires also. China is also printing a huge amount of money and their real estate market is a ticking time bomb. Rose colored glasses don't cut it in China either.

Pandaguy>>>I agree. It is fact that China has many more millionaires, billionaires than USA. The Chinese are great savers of income. Many prople own multiple homes. The fancy Western cars' very high prices does not seem to deter the appetite of the wealthy. The have so much money that the high prices are of no concern to them.<<<

Actually that statement is not true. The United States has 3x the number of Billionaires then China and many more Millionaires also. China is also printing a huge amount of money and their real estate market is a ticking time bomb. Rose colored glasses don't cut it in China either.

Please know that many of the current millionaires living in USA have recently emigrated from China for various reasons. This recent CNBC report states that "64% of (Chinese) wealthy have emigrated or plan to emigrate" and "1/3 of (Chinese) super rich have already left the country (China)". So, many of the USA millionaires you are counting are actually "Chinese millionaires". I guess it all depends on how you want to catagorize them. Also, the Chinese real estate market may be a ticking time bomb, but so is our USA stock market! The real estate building boom continues very strong in China today. I have see it every day.

Sort of funny but not so funny, I just bought an Asian coin from a dealer in China and it was graded 70, the only 70 graded by PCGS and it may have been graded recently. It was not cheap, photos looked fine but hard to completely tell by pics. I haven't received coin yet.

I thought everyone knows 70 grade coins are highly liquid. In times of illiquidity in the market (like now), handing out more 70s is a response aimed at getting your clients better realized prices. It is natural that the probable underlying cause of the problem (getting clients better liquidity vs illiquidity) becomes the topic of further posts.

Or do people really believe that this sharp increase in PCGS 70s is natural??

70 grade coins may not always be highly liquid. As usually they are priced significantly higher than 69grade coins, that reduces the number if those who can afford to pony up for the higher price.A seller may have to lower their asking price significantly for a 70 for a quick sale, vs selling a 69, which defeats the point of liquididty.

Logged

"He who speaks without modesty will find it difficult to make his words good."

Check out this 1979 35th anniversary of the founding of the PRC 4-coin NGC PF 70 set. The picture of the listing is not clear, but you can check NGC website to decide yourself if NGC has inflated the grade of this set or not.

The absolute number of 70s for NGC or PCGS will be affected by the total number of coins graded by each company, which is unlikely to be the same.

Also, these eBay numbers are heavily influenced by the abundant 70s for recent date pandas such as 2010-2014. Grading statistics for such high-mintage, bullion-related issues may be less of a concern for the people focused on uncommon 70s.

IMO, NGC had inflated the grade long time ago and PCGS is following the NGC practice now.

Although I have only been watching closely for several years, my gut sense is that there may be some truth to what you say. A few years ago, for some of the older gold pandas that I kept an eye on, I recall that there were extremely few 70s. It seemed nearly impossible to get a PCGS 70 for some coins. I think PCGS may indeed have been tougher than NGC.

I think what people are reacting to in this thread is that the standards for PCGS seem to have become markedly less strict, at least over the past several months for some of the modern China coins. Grading inconsistency over time makes people uncomfortable. If I had invested heavily in the scarce PCGS 70s of a few years ago (I did not), I would not be pleased if the grading standards suddenly decreased.

It looks as if NGC may be loosening the standards for 70 grades even faster than PCGS is.

I noticed from NGC census that, last week, for the first time ever, they graded a 1983 silver panda as PF 70 (out of about 600) and also a 2001 no D silver panda as MS 70 (out of about 1,900). Previously, for many years, there had been no 70 grades for either coin.

If NGC standards haven't changed, then what explains this occurrence? The odds of that happening just by chance in the very same week would seem to be very close to zero...

I'd like to bump this thread up with a question, if I may, on the topic of grade inflation:

I had some coins graded by PCGS in 2011. My sense from this thread is that the same coins would have been graded lower then than they would have more recently. Does that mean I should consider regrading? Is it worth the expense (and/or to consider NGC instead of PCGS or adding NCS conservation?). Because I'm sure the absolute value of the coin factors into that equation, I'm thinking specifically of a 1996 1-oz large date gold panda.

I think you have to look at your coin specifically and determine whether you feel the grade is accurate or whether the graders were especially harsh that day. There's a small chance that the grade would be changed, so first you should try to figure out what the graders were looking at when they decided to grade it a 67 or 68, or whatever it is that made them assign such a grade. You'll probably be spending 75 bucks on the endeavor, so you should know whether there is a fair chance you can recoup your money.

I'd like to bump this thread up with a question, if I may, on the topic of grade inflation:

I had some coins graded by PCGS in 2011. My sense from this thread is that the same coins would have been graded lower then than they would have more recently. Does that mean I should consider regrading? Is it worth the expense (and/or to consider NGC instead of PCGS or adding NCS conservation?). Because I'm sure the absolute value of the coin factors into that equation, I'm thinking specifically of a 1996 1-oz large date gold panda.

Thanks!

You could also crack it out of the holder yourself and submit it to either PCGS (or NGC) for, I think, $30.

Market value for mcc in PCGS holder is lower than for NGC graded coins.From my limited experience with NGC the likelihood to get an Upgrade is higher if you crack the coins out of the PCGS holder before submitting to NCS or NGC.Good luck !

Cool. Thanks. Just out of curiosity, since they've now been removed from the original plastic pouches to go into the PCGS holder, if I were to crack them out to resubmit, what would be the safest way to contain them to ship to NCS/NGC? Thanks!

Just follow the rules for submission at the NGCcoin.com website. Use 2 1/2 x 21/2 non pvc flips for smaller items and 4 x 4 (or larger) non pvc flips for larger items. Many original hard capsules permit the coin or medal to move around, causing rub spots/wear. If the design projects beyond the height of the rim, this permits the high point to rub on the hard capsule (and this is a problem). Still, if the design does not project beyond the height of the rim and if the coin or medal does not move around in the hard capsule, send it to ngc or ncs in the hard capsule. Without doubt, pad the items well to avoid movement within the box and use double boxes to avoid impact damage during shipment. Registered USPS mail is the safe way to ship (although it is very slow).

Just follow the rules for submission at the NGCcoin.com website. Use 2 1/2 x 21/2 non pvc flips for smaller items and 4 x 4 (or larger) non pvc flips for larger items. Many original hard capsules permit the coin or medal to move around, causing rub spots/wear. If the design projects beyond the height of the rim, this permits the high point to rub on the hard capsule (and this is a problem). Still, if the design does not project beyond the height of the rim and if the coin or medal does not move around in the hard capsule, send it to ngc or ncs in the hard capsule. Without doubt, pad the items well to avoid movement within the box and use double boxes to avoid impact damage during shipment. Registered USPS mail is the safe way to ship (although it is very slow).

Most pre-2012 graded coin will receive a higher grade, especially for 67 and 68, if you are re-grading those coins now, since both NGC and PCGS have lower their grading standard after 2012. It is a well-known fact inside China that pre-2012 graded coin can fetch 10-20% premium over recently graded coin.

OK, so now that my fiber optic line is repaired and internet is restored, here's another question @poconopenn (or anyone):

When you go to the PCGS site and enter the verification code, it pulls up a current value. Is that already factoring in the looser grading standard for that individual coin, graded in 2011? Or is that based on an MS-68 grade in general. Any idea?

When you go to the PCGS site and enter the verification code, it pulls up a current value. Is that already factoring in the looser grading standard for that individual coin, graded in 2011? Or is that based on an MS-68 grade in general. Any idea?

I'm pretty sure they wouldn't admit to loosening the grading standards so they'll be even less likely to factor in any reduced value. Imho it is generally a better idea to to use ebay, pricepedia or chinesecoinslive to look up market prices.