The Doomsday Clock is an internationally recognized design that conveys how close we are to destroying our civilization with dangerous technologies of our own making. First and foremost among these are nuclear weapons, but the dangers include climate-changing technologies, emerging... Read More

Nuclear Notebook

Over 28 years of weapons analysis, the Nuclear Notebook column has revealed surprise nuclear activity and spot-on arsenal estimates while becoming a daily resource for scholars, activists, and journalists. The authors trace the development of the Notebook as part of the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists special issue celebrating its 70th year of publication.

Seth Baum

Development & Disarmament Roundtable

Nuclear-armed nations say arsenals must be modernized to keep them safe, secure, and effective. Disarmament advocates say that extensive modernizations undercut the goal of eliminating nuclear weapons. With full disarmament not in sight, how should modernization of nuclear weapons be approached?

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The issue in the unfolding crisis is not Crimea’s independence but the future of Ukraine as a whole, and Russia’s influence in the “near abroad.” The immediate objective should be to prevent a military escalation of the crisis and promote the resolution of concerns through negotiations and democratic process.

Ukraine has so far been successful in avoiding provocation. President Vladimir Putin’s March 4, 2014 press conferenceis a sign that Russia may be softening its stance. Putin conceded that ousted Ukrainian President Yanukovych has no political future and expressed support for May elections. He claimed armed forces in Crimea are local militias, not Russian troops, denied that Russia had trained those militias, explained that the Russian snap military drills had nothing to do with the crisis, and reserved the right to use force as a “last resort.” President Obama may be right that Putin “is not fooling anyone,” but the United States should provide Moscow a face-saving path to de-escalation while applying pressure to ensure that Russian forces retreat. Addressing Russian concerns directly would further undermine any hidden agenda.

The United States and Russia seem to agree that Ukrainians should decide their own future through democratic elections. Euro-Maidan protestors may be right to distrust corrupt politicians, but power should not go to whoever shouts the loudest. Neither should the unity of Ukraine come at all costs. If Crimeans truly want independence, then they should determine that through a referendum, like Scotland, and invite international observers.