The World Next Week: Iranians Vote, the G8 Meets in Northern Ireland, and Obama Visits Berlin

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The World Next Week podcast is up. Bob McMahon and I discussed the presidential elections in Iran, the G8 summit in Northern Ireland, and President Obama’s trip to Berlin.

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The highlights:

Iranians head to the polls tomorrow to cast their ballot for a new president. If none of the six men on the ballot wins a majority of the vote on the first go, there will be a run-off election next Friday. Whether the Iranians vote once or twice, the election hardly qualifies as free and fair. The list of six candidates was vetted by the Supreme Leader and the powerful Guardian Council; potential candidates who posed a possible threat to the regime or opposed its policies were booted off the ballot. So none of the final six candidates favors halting Iran’s nuclear program. Indeed, one of the leading candidates, Saeed Jalili, has been Iran’s chief nuclear negotiator since 2007. One open question about the election is whether the regime’s opponents will head to the polls or sit out the vote. Iran’s last presidential vote saw the Green Movement emerge, but the regime forcibly crushed the protests. A repeat of that dynamic is possible, though probably not likely. One thing is certain: the election marks the end of the eight-year-long Ahmadinejad presidency. Like the United States, Iran limits its presidents to two terms.

The leaders of the Group of Eight industrialized countries—or G8—will be watching the Iranian elections closely as they make their way to Lough Erne in Northern Ireland for their annual meeting. Britain currently holds the G8’s rotating presidency, and Prime Minister David Cameron has prioritized the “three Ts”–trade, transparency, and tax–as topics for discussion. The discussion of first “t” could be the most interesting. The United States and Europe have opened negotiations on a Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP). If successfully negotiated, it could turn out to be a watershed development for the global economy. The discussions at Lough Erne could give us a sense of TTIP’s chances for becoming a reality. Global terrorism and Syria will also be on the G8′s agenda, but the likelihood of a major breakthrough on either issue is low.