So far I have only looked at team data but I have now calculated rush shots by players and so I will take a look at rush shots by forwards.

I am restricting my analysis to forwards who have been on the ice for >1500 total shots (shots for plus shots against) over the past 7 seasons. There were 307 such forwards so basically we are dealing with top 9 type players. Here is a list of the 30 players with the best, and worst, on-ice shooting percentage on rush shots.

Rank

Player

RushSh%

Rank

PlayerName

RushSh%

1

TEDDY PURCELL

16.02%

307

SAMUEL PAHLSSON

4.35%

2

J.P. DUMONT

16.00%

306

MIKE GRIER

4.69%

3

ARTEM ANISIMOV

14.29%

305

SHAWN THORNTON

4.73%

4

JONATHAN TOEWS

14.10%

304

JAMIE LANGENBRUNNER

5.00%

5

BRAD MARCHAND

13.80%

303

JOHN MADDEN

5.38%

6

STEVE DOWNIE

13.79%

302

TIM JACKMAN

5.41%

7

DREW STAFFORD

13.38%

301

DAVID STECKEL

5.43%

8

THOMAS VANEK

13.21%

300

NATE THOMPSON

5.46%

9

COLIN WILSON

13.11%

299

MAXIM LAPIERRE

5.48%

10

PATRICK KANE

13.10%

298

KYLE WELLWOOD

5.48%

11

KRISTIAN HUSELIUS

13.08%

297

MIKE KNUBLE

5.52%

12

JASON POMINVILLE

13.08%

296

DANIEL WINNIK

5.56%

13

NICKLAS BACKSTROM

13.08%

295

BOYD GORDON

6.06%

14

CLARKE MACARTHUR

13.07%

294

CRAIG ADAMS

6.06%

15

JAMES VAN_RIEMSDYK

13.06%

293

PETER MUELLER

6.31%

16

MIKHAIL GRABOVSKI

13.06%

292

BJ CROMBEEN

6.41%

17

PATRICE BERGERON

12.97%

291

TRAVIS MOEN

6.45%

18

PAVEL DATSYUK

12.95%

290

COLIN GREENING

6.45%

19

CHRIS STEWART

12.93%

289

JERRED SMITHSON

6.48%

20

TYLER SEGUIN

12.93%

288

MATTHEW LOMBARDI

6.52%

21

ALEX TANGUAY

12.90%

287

ROB NIEDERMAYER

6.63%

22

VACLAV PROSPAL

12.87%

286

JAMAL MAYERS

6.67%

23

PATRICK O’SULLIVAN

12.86%

285

VLADIMIR SOBOTKA

6.69%

24

DEREK STEPAN

12.77%

284

MASON RAYMOND

6.76%

25

MARCUS JOHANSSON

12.69%

283

RYAN CARTER

6.77%

26

SIDNEY CROSBY

12.64%

282

SERGEI KOSTITSYN

6.80%

27

EVANDER KANE

12.46%

281

ANTTI MIETTINEN

6.83%

28

WAYNE SIMMONDS

12.38%

280

SHAWN MATTHIAS

6.88%

29

TODD BERTUZZI

12.38%

279

VERNON FIDDLER

6.92%

30

TJ OSHIE

12.20%

278

BILL GUERIN

6.94%

The top 30 consists for forwards we’d mostly consider good to excellent offensive players though many of the truly elite offensive players are notably absent. Guys like Malkin (65th), Getzlaf (46th), Perry(75th), Giroux (84th), Parise (216), St. Louis (93rd), Kessel (62nd), etc. Some of those guys you’d think would thrive on end to end rushes so it is kind of strange to not see them there. The list also seems to have as many good 2-way players (Bergeron, Grabovski, Datsyuk, etc.) as elite offensive talents.

The bottom of the list is dominated mostly with 3rd line defensive types which is no surprise. Not really a lot of offensive talent in that group.

How about non-rush shots. Which players are best and worst at converting non-rush shots into goals.

Rank

Player

OtherSh%

Rank

PlayerName

OtherSh%

1

SIDNEY CROSBY

11.00%

307

CAL CLUTTERBUCK

3.70%

2

THOMAS VANEK

9.98%

306

SHAWN THORNTON

4.03%

3

TAYLOR HALL

9.95%

305

JERRED SMITHSON

4.22%

4

CORY STILLMAN

9.95%

304

RYAN CARTER

4.28%

5

JAMIE BENN

9.89%

303

TORREY MITCHELL

4.67%

6

JORDAN EBERLE

9.81%

302

ZACK SMITH

4.73%

7

BRENDEN MORROW

9.74%

301

DEREK DORSETT

4.85%

8

JAROME IGINLA

9.71%

300

MARTY REASONER

4.91%

9

MARTIN ST._LOUIS

9.69%

299

SEAN BERGENHEIM

5.01%

10

DAVID DESHARNAIS

9.68%

298

PATRICK EAVES

5.12%

11

ALEX TANGUAY

9.63%

297

NATHAN GERBE

5.13%

12

NATHAN HORTON

9.60%

296

BRIAN BOYLE

5.18%

13

DAVID KREJCI

9.54%

295

BJ CROMBEEN

5.18%

14

MARC SAVARD

9.49%

294

TIM JACKMAN

5.20%

15

MARIAN GABORIK

9.47%

293

CHAD LAROSE

5.21%

16

ALEXANDER SEMIN

9.45%

292

BRIAN ROLSTON

5.28%

17

PATRICK SHARP

9.44%

291

DREW MILLER

5.31%

18

BOBBY RYAN

9.39%

290

JOHN MADDEN

5.35%

19

MIKE RIBEIRO

9.36%

289

DAVID CLARKSON

5.35%

20

STEPHEN WEISS

9.34%

288

DAVID STECKEL

5.37%

21

MATT DUCHENE

9.28%

287

PATRICK O’SULLIVAN

5.42%

22

JASON SPEZZA

9.26%

286

SAMUEL PAHLSSON

5.42%

23

STEVEN REINPRECHT

9.26%

285

TRAVIS ZAJAC

5.46%

24

STEVEN STAMKOS

9.24%

284

MICHAL HANDZUS

5.47%

25

BRENDAN MORRISON

9.24%

283

RYAN CALLAHAN

5.49%

26

LOUI ERIKSSON

9.21%

282

JAMIE LANGENBRUNNER

5.58%

27

MICHAEL RYDER

9.20%

281

JAMAL MAYERS

5.61%

28

JONATHAN TOEWS

9.14%

280

MARTIN HANZAL

5.61%

29

RYAN GETZLAF

9.13%

279

JORDIN TOOTOO

5.64%

30

COLBY ARMSTRONG

9.10%

278

BLAKE COMEAU

5.64%

The list of top players in non-rush shooting percentage is definitely a stronger list in terms of elite level players. One reason could possibly be that the greater sample size (there are 3-4 times as many non-rush shots as rush shots) allows for an improved ability to identify shooting talent. Another reason could be that the skills necessary to generate offense in the offensive zone is different than the skills to generate offense from the rush. To generate offense in the offensive zone you have to have elite puck handling and shooting skills because you are attempting to generate scoring chances with 5 defenders and a goalie in a small portion of the ice surface. To generate offense on the rush it may be more about being able to force turnovers and generating odd man rushes may be more important than pure puck handling or shooting skills. More rugged guys like Downie (63rd in non-rush Sh%), Stafford (106th), Bertuzzi (175th) and Marchand (149th) may be good at forcing turnovers to generate good rush opportunities but may not be so good at generating offense in the offensive zone.

Once again the worst shooting percentages on n0n-rush shots is dominated by 3rd line defensive/role playing types with a few other interesting names included like O’Sullivan who had the 23rd best rush shooting percentage. Clarkson and Callahan are two interesting names on this list. Clarkson ranked 122nd (probably pretty good for a Devil player) in on-ice rush shooting percentage lending support to the idea that the rugged types are better at generating good scoring chances on the rush than in offensive zone play. Callahan ranked 236th though.

The following table shows the number of players that had the highest percentage of their on-ice shots being rush shots.

Rank

Player

RushS%

Rank

PlayerName

RushS%

1

SHAWN THORNTON

29.87%

307

VALTTERI FILPPULA

19.62%

2

RYAN JONES

29.56%

306

PATRICK KANE

19.73%

3

TIM JACKMAN

29.21%

305

SAKU KOIVU

19.92%

4

RUSLAN FEDOTENKO

28.24%

304

TEEMU SELANNE

20.06%

5

BRANDON PRUST

28.14%

303

DANIEL ALFREDSSON

20.22%

6

CAL CLUTTERBUCK

28.07%

302

DAN CLEARY

20.23%

7

BRAD MARCHAND

28.05%

301

PATRICK SHARP

20.57%

8

BRIAN BOYLE

28.04%

300

THOMAS VANEK

20.64%

9

GREGORY CAMPBELL

28.02%

299

ANDREW COGLIANO

20.71%

10

CHRIS NEIL

27.78%

298

JONATHAN TOEWS

20.77%

11

DEREK STEPAN

27.73%

297

DUSTIN PENNER

20.80%

12

CHUCK KOBASEW

27.70%

296

SHAWN HORCOFF

20.84%

13

CODY MCLEOD

27.68%

295

BRIAN ROLSTON

20.90%

14

JERRED SMITHSON

27.52%

294

TROY BROUWER

20.91%

15

BRANDON SUTTER

27.38%

293

HENRIK ZETTERBERG

20.94%

16

JORDIN TOOTOO

27.25%

292

ANDREW BRUNETTE

21.02%

17

RYAN CALLAHAN

27.20%

291

DEREK ROY

21.05%

18

MATT COOKE

27.15%

290

ERIC BELANGER

21.18%

19

MAXIM LAPIERRE

27.14%

289

MIKE RIBEIRO

21.19%

20

DAVID JONES

27.10%

288

JOHN TAVARES

21.21%

21

DANIEL PAILLE

27.10%

287

TEDDY PURCELL

21.23%

22

ERIC NYSTROM

27.07%

286

PAVEL DATSYUK

21.33%

23

CRAIG ADAMS

26.99%

285

TOMAS HOLMSTROM

21.38%

24

TOM KOSTOPOULOS

26.88%

284

CLAUDE GIROUX

21.43%

25

ARTEM ANISIMOV

26.78%

283

ALES HEMSKY

21.45%

26

DREW MILLER

26.71%

282

JIRI HUDLER

21.55%

27

LARS ELLER

26.68%

281

PAUL STASTNY

21.55%

28

MIKAEL BACKLUND

26.67%

280

JAROMIR JAGR

21.61%

29

JANNIK HANSEN

26.62%

279

RYAN GETZLAF

21.64%

30

J.P. DUMONT

26.57%

278

BRAD BOYES

21.68%

It is probably not surprising but there are a lot of defensive type players with high percentage of their shots on the rush while a number of good offensive players have a lower percentage of shots coming from the rush. Zone starts would have a significant impact on this and the ability (and desire) for elite offensive players to maintain offensive zone time and offensive shots is a factor too.

I am generally a believer that the next great leap in hockey analytics is getting away from overall statistics such as on-ice shot differentials/ratios and isolating individual skills and knowing what skills are best used in what situations and what skills complement each other to maximize line combinations. I think some of the results we see above take us a step closer in that direction though there is still a lot to learn and understand about the game. Better data will go a long way to achieving that but until then I think there is more we can extract from the data we have.

Welcome

Welcome to HockeyAnalysis.com, where I strive to get a better understanding of the game of hockey through the use of statistical analysis. I hope you enjoy whatever time you spend here and maybe even learn a little. If you have any questions or comments, feel free to drop me an e-mail at david (at) hockeyanalysis.com.