(ANSA) – Rome, February 21 – The first six people have been infected with the coronavirus in Italy, all in Lombardy, regional health councillor Giulio Gallera said Friday.
They are all about 40.
Gallera urged people to stay at home and avoid social contact.
He said some 250 people had been placed in isolation and would be tested for the deadly virus.
All six are in serious condition, Lombardy Governor Attilio Fontana said.

The way to prevent panic is to focus on what has already been established:
1. Most people exposed to the virus will not catch the disease.
2. Most of the minority who do catch the disease will suffer very little ill-effects.

Old people and people with existing medical conditions need to be extra-careful. Just like normal. No need to panic.

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By: Mr Black https://chicagoboyz.net/archives/61751.html#comment-1029499
Fri, 21 Feb 2020 10:59:42 +0000https://chicagoboyz.net/?p=61751#comment-1029499It’s always nice to see people who can’t do math and basic projections insisting on their opinion being sensible and well considered.

Wuhan started with just a couple of dozen infected and 2 dead. Not looking so great now though.

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By: Brian https://chicagoboyz.net/archives/61751.html#comment-1029495
Fri, 21 Feb 2020 04:11:48 +0000https://chicagoboyz.net/?p=61751#comment-1029495And Iran is clearly seriously impacted. And at least one case from Iran has spread to Canada. Which means who knows how many people going who knows where are infected. Containment has failed. Educating people, limiting exposure to badly impacted areas, and desperately trying to find a vaccine, and above all else doing whatever necessary to prevent panic, which includes not blowing smoke up all our behinds, is what is needed now.
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By: Trent Telenko https://chicagoboyz.net/archives/61751.html#comment-1029494
Fri, 21 Feb 2020 03:55:35 +0000https://chicagoboyz.net/?p=61751#comment-1029494The late breaking news from South Korea involved a “Super spreader” in a “Cult” in Daegu.

This decodes out as a church-lady at a Christian mega-church in Daegu was one of the communion helpers as well as an asymptomatic and heavily infected COVID-19 carrier.

The church-lady has infected at least 42 and rising individuals in the 1,000 person service with secondary infections from the service communion already hitting the ROK military in Seoul. One of the young women the church-lady gave communion too had a soldier boy-friend stationed in the ROK capitol who did a week end visit.

The Mayor of Seoul shut down the branch of the mega-church in his city and forbid public meetings or prayer groups.

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By: Brian https://chicagoboyz.net/archives/61751.html#comment-1029493
Fri, 21 Feb 2020 03:48:39 +0000https://chicagoboyz.net/?p=61751#comment-1029493“What would make Chinese authorities think that those hypotheses might be correct, and therefore the response to this virus needs to be so aggressive?”

Yes, I’ve posted that question here repeatedly since this started. I saw two possibilities:
1. Things in Wuhan were much, much worse than they were admitting.
2. They had firm reason to believe things were going to get much, much worse.
Or both, of course.

You can remove “Chinese” from your question–other countries with outbreaks are reacting like this ain’t the flu. Your numbers about cases, deaths, etc, all make sense–China sees 100k flu deaths every year, and doesn’t shut down because of it, so why are they doing this?

I’m not knowledgeable about this stuff, so I don’t have an answer (I made my ignorant speculation on another thread this morning–there is no acquired immunity, so once the virus gets established in a community, you’re screwed), but it behooves us to act like the Chinese might just have reason to act like this is an existential crisis.

One thing I also really don’t like–there are lots of stories of doctors and nurses dying, which doesn’t seem to be consistent with the claims that most of the dead are old and/or sick.

Most of us can only go about our business and hope for the best, but as I’ve also said repeatedly, the world wasted several weeks that should have been used to prepare people for what looks like it could be pretty bad, and I fear panic and distrust of the government is going to make it worse than it needs to otherwise be.

It is good to be skeptical. I just wish human beings were as skeptical about the outrageous unsupported unscientific claims made by Saint Greta, AlGore, and the rest of the Climate Change Scam gang.

One point on which there seems to be factual support — A large number of people exposed to the virus do not get infected. Maybe it is 80%, maybe it is less. But it does not seem to be a highly infectious disease.

A second point on which there seems to be support — most of the people who do get infected do not develop any kind of life-threatening condition. That is good for that big majority of people whose lives are not put in danger, or really even inconvenienced by the disease. Maybe not so good for other people who might be infected by those unwitting carriers.

One could certainly hypothesize that the disease is much worse than it currently seems. Maybe many of the people who do not appear to be infected now will get sick later. Maybe the people who had no or mild symptoms will suddenly relapse weeks in the future. But there is not data to support that yet. Which brings us back to the question — What would make Chinese authorities think that those hypotheses might be correct, and therefore the response to this virus needs to be so aggressive?

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By: renminbi https://chicagoboyz.net/archives/61751.html#comment-1029491
Fri, 21 Feb 2020 03:06:11 +0000https://chicagoboyz.net/?p=61751#comment-1029491Thank you for what you have done. One suggestion though- use semi-log paper to graph the progression of this illness.That will show when there is a genuine change in status.
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By: Brian https://chicagoboyz.net/archives/61751.html#comment-1029490
Fri, 21 Feb 2020 01:50:30 +0000https://chicagoboyz.net/?p=61751#comment-1029490This is not correct, I don’t believe:
“Numbers via Wall Street Journal:
3,063 passengers & crew tested
634 tested positive for virus (4 out of 5 people exposed did not contract the infection)”

They’ve always said that nowhere near all the people aboard that floating petri dish were tested.

Also they say that quite a few of them are in critical condition currently.

…and that low viral load initial infection takes a very, very, very, long time to manifest as either positive test result or as “symptoms.”

And four of five people that test positive for COVID-19 have either no or very minor symptoms while being infection spreaders.

The infection rate right now is over 20% for the souls aboard Diamond Princess and it will take at least 24 days from their last exposure to be detectable in new cases.

The chaos and ineffectivness of the Japanese quarantine was such that every passenger, crewman or Japanese health ministry body on the Diamond Princess were likely exposed to infection causing viral loads right up to and through the flights back to their home countries.

The thing we need to watch is what total percentage we finally see of the souls aboard Diamond Princess get the COVID-19 infection.

The WHO’s chief immunologist thinks world wide will be a 60% total because it is a “virgin fields infection” (medical term of art alert).

I’m thinking it will be closer to 80% than 60% for Diamond Princess because of the repeated SARS-Cov2 viral exposures through fomite contamination in food, crew rest rooms and ship’a ventilation

>>634 tested positive for virus (4 out of 5 people exposed did not contract the infection).

…is increasing hourly. Two more popped positive in Darwin Australia in the last couple of hours.

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By: Gavin Longmuir https://chicagoboyz.net/archives/61751.html#comment-1029486
Thu, 20 Feb 2020 23:23:53 +0000https://chicagoboyz.net/?p=61751#comment-1029486Kirk: “A diagnosis of “just the flu” would not engender the reaction that the CCP has been having.”

Completely agree! Something is driving this, but what?

Since no-one accepts Chinese numbers, let’s look at the infamous cruise ship. And keep in mind that the passengers on the ship were disproportionately old & infirm, and that arguably the Japanese completely mishandled the situation and transformed the ship into a virus incubator.

Numbers via Wall Street Journal:
3,063 passengers & crew tested
634 tested positive for virus (4 out of 5 people exposed did not contract the infection).
28 infected people had serious health problems (96% of infected people had no symptoms or only mild symptoms)
2 died — both people in their 80s, one with a pre-existing condition.

Death rate among those exposed — 0.1%. Less than one person in 1,000. And that among a particularly susceptible population given an unusually high exposure to the disease.

If we accept the Japanese numbers from the cruise ship, the Chinese reaction seems completely disproportionate. What is the reason for the over-reaction?

“Whelp, I think we have the real reason the CDC has clammed up: Discord.

Turns out the CDC objected to the 14 late diagnosis Americans traveling with the rest of the Diamond Princess evacuees… and given the existence of this article, the press knows and has been asking questions. SO no press conferences where further uncomfortable questions could arise.

The primary victims of this virus will be those that took the SARS vaccine, which was a major blunder.

Which BTW the CDC tried to distribute in the US which was stopped by the National Institutes of Health. Hundreds of millions where vaccinated according to the CDC in China with this major blunder of a Vaccine.

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By: Kirk https://chicagoboyz.net/archives/61751.html#comment-1029479
Thu, 20 Feb 2020 22:03:11 +0000https://chicagoboyz.net/?p=61751#comment-1029479A diagnosis of “just the flu” would not engender the reaction that the CCP has been having.

Of course, it could merely be the government in China taking the opportunity to crush dissent and put down potential rebellion, but… I am thinking that they’d prefer steps that didn’t include shutting down enough of their economy to reduce their carbon emissions by 25%.

That alone speaks volumes. My guess is that this is pretty damn serious in China, and may or may not be pretty damn serious outside China, as well. The long periods of apparent asymptomatic tranmissivity is something that gives me pause, whenever I think of dismissing the entire problem. Add in what the Chinese are doing, and I’m afraid I have to come down on the side of “This is some serious sh*t…”.

The governments of China, South Korea, Japan, and Iran will be happy to hear your analysis. Please call them right away to let them know there’s absolutely nothing to worry about. And make sure to keep telling other governments that in the coming days and weeks, when they start locking their own cities down.

It’s just the flu.

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By: Dan from Madison https://chicagoboyz.net/archives/61751.html#comment-1029475
Thu, 20 Feb 2020 20:52:21 +0000https://chicagoboyz.net/?p=61751#comment-1029475Gavin says it all. The flu season here in Wisconsin has been absolutely awful. Many people die from it every season and it has claimed a bunch this season. But we just shoulder shrug and move on with life. There are a lot of death inducing things in the world and Covid-19, although bad, isn’t exactly topping the charts, at least yet.
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