His analysis seems to be stats based, but he does make some interesting points. Thoughts?

Quote:

Reasons not to draft a NT at #12by ct1361

NT’s Are Ineffective At Rushing The QB

One of the big reasons stated for drafting a NT is to get “push” up the middle when rushing a QB. As the chart shows, the NT’s listed above simply don’t rush the passer well. Only 3 of the NT’s listed graded out as “average” by Profootballfocus.com. All others are ranked “below average”. When grading the Pass Rank, the site takes into effect sacks, QB hits, and QB pressures and none of the NT’s graded very well at all. How many on this site have wanted a NT to pressure the QB like Wilfork or Jenkins? Yet, both of those players are considered below average when rushing the passer.

But as you noticed, all NT’s ranked above average in Rush Rank. The likes of Pouha, Gregg, Ratliff, Wilfork, and Franklin are outstanding run defenders. Also notice that Ferguson is the best ranked pass rusher but is ranked slightly behind Soliai when it comes to defending the run. (How many of you are surprised by Soliai ranking ahead of Fergie when it comes to defending the run?)

NT’s Are Part Time Players

Another interesting stat shown in the chart is the % of snaps played. Most NT’s in the chart play between 40% - 60% of the snaps. Only two played more than 60% of the snaps available, Wilfork (64%) and Ratliff (72%). The reason why these players are playing a small % of snaps points to the Pass Rank category above. NT’s don’t rush the passer, so they are not on the field on passing downs. If you delve into the % of snaps played by NT’s in 2nd & Long or 3rd & Long situations, the % of snaps falls dramatically.

Drafting NT’s In The 1st Round Are Not Sure Things

There are 4 NT’s on the list taken in the 1st round (Pickett, Raji, Hampton, Wilfork). None of them are elite pass rushers (in fact Hampton is the worst pass rusher on the list). Only one, Wilfork, would be considered an elite run stopper. I would make the argument that the best all around NT’s on the list are Gregg and Ratliff and they were drafted in the 6th and 7th round respectively. Not only are they excellent at stopping the run, they are average at rushing the passer, which grades out much higher than the other NT’s on the list. (As an aside, Fergie and Ratliff were both drafted by Parcells and both in the 7th round).

In conclusion, the Phins are going to make a big investment in the #12 pick. Last year the #12 pick, Knowshon Moreno, got a contract worth $23 million over 5 yrs with $13 million guaranteed. If I was going to pay that much for a defensive player, I would want that guy to be a multi-dimensional player (not just a run stopper) and be on the field more than 60% of the time. If the Phins must go defense, go after an OLB. Get a player like one of these guys who not only stop the run (except for Dumervil), but rush the passer as well.

I think our 4 glaring musts were ILB - NT - WR - FS. Only one has been filled, and I am not a big fan of first round WR picks unless its a must have type of player.

So my hopes are NT...

I see round 2 being a little tougher to decide tho... If we do get the NT in 1, do we go after an OLB in 2 or wait to see how Anderson/Wake do with more snaps? Go after a safety?

Seems like alot of empty spaces and not alot of movement, we started the offseason quick with 3 CFL signings in Jan, then hit the FA with a splash, but it seems the FO is happy with our roster, or just dont see any good players out there...

Well the stats are obviously faulty in this regard. A NT's main objective is to get doubleteamed and create space for the OLB and ends isnt it? Thats like saying the CB position isn't very important because they don't sack a lot. It isn't their main role.

If you cannot stop a team from running the ball, you open up a team whole aresenal. Peyton Manning is a great play action pass QB, but if you take that away from him in regards to the run game, you can ignore the play action.

I don't know a team that draft a NT to be a pass rusher. In a 3-4 scheme, that is what your OLB and DE are for. Now, you do want to get that push up the middle, but your NT is there to draw doulbe teams so LB's can flow and make plays.

Nose Tackles in 3-4 defenses are making very good money, even if they are only playing 60% of the plays. Teams understand their importance. Heck, Albert Haynesworth fleeced the Redskins in last year's free agency.

"One of the big reasons stated for drafting a NT is to get “push” up the middle when rushing a QB."

Who said that? The reason behind a good NT is to take up two blockers to allow the LBs to make the plays.

This is one reason I do not like the 3-4 defense. You need a couple of special people at certain positions to be really good at it. And since more and more NFL teams are starting to use the 3-4, those few players are going to be harder and harder to find and more costly to keep.

I remember under Saban when we ran a 4-3 and we would rotate up to 10 DL in and out.

Btway, when the Dolphins first ran the 3-4 our NT was very fast instead of being very big. But then it was a different game then.

The reason behind a good NT is to take up two blockers to allow the LBs to make the plays.

LUG, I thought this was the main priority of a NT as well, which is probably why they are in on only 60% of defensive plays.

LikeUntoGod wrote:

This is one reason I do not like the 3-4 defense. You need a couple of special people at certain positions to be really good at it. And since more and more NFL teams are starting to use the 3-4, those few players are going to be harder and harder to find and more costly to keep.

Correct me if I am wrong, but isn't the 3-4 very similar to Arnsparger's 5-3 defense? A lot of OLBs in the 3-4 are converted college DEs.

Albert Haynesworth is for most part a DT. I have read that he is not thrilled at all about possibly having to play the NT position in Washington's new 3-4 scheme.

I thought Haynesworth was going to play DE in their 34??

In any case, I would rather go pass rusher in round 1. If you can trade down into the 20's and grab a guy like Cam Thomas, I think that's an option, but if we're staying at 12, I think we get one of the very talented OLB prospects that will be there.

I kind of agree with this article. I think they can find a really good NT in round two or three. I think the 12th pick needs to address safety which is another loaded position in this draft. Taylor Mays or Earl Thomas would look good in aqua and orange.

Correct me if I am wrong, but isn't the 3-4 very similar to Arnsparger's 5-3 defense? A lot of OLBs in the 3-4 are converted college DEs.

Well, a 5-3 would have 5 lineman and 3 linebackers which would give you 8 guys in the box. A 3-4 only has seven on most down. Different gap assignments, different blitzes and different coverages make it a lot different than the 5-3.

Outside of NT the next big hole is OLB......Porter is gone, Taylor is a FA, and the team has brought in 0 FA's at that position. So the current possible starters are Anderson and Wake, which is pretty weak! I think Wake has potential and could be good next season, but Anderson is a backup OLB and that is about it.

at least at S the fins do have Bell, Clemons, and Culver......and could add another guy in round 2 or 3 who could challenge for a starting job. I think Clemons or Culver could start at FS next season and the Fins wouldn't miss a beat. Of course that could be cause Wilson started at FS last season?

What the team needs is to add another LB who can help to make the defense dominate, who can get some consistent pressure on the qb, and give quality run support. And we all know that Parcells loves him some LB!

I say go with Kindle at #12 as you know what you're getting with him and what you're getting is a lot!

If Miami does go OLB, I am hoping it is Brandon Graham. He's been more productive, has the ability and power to play SOLB and provide pass rush and his motor always runs hot.

Sergio Kindle production has been spotty, and while he is talented, his effort has been inconsistent and we cannot overlook the fact that this kid has had 2 serious drinking related incidents. His own high school coach worries about him being in South Beach.

If Miami does go OLB, I am hoping it is Brandon Graham. He's been more productive, has the ability and power to play SOLB and provide pass rush and his motor always runs hot.

Sergio Kindle production has been spotty, and while he is talented, his effort has been inconsistent and we cannot overlook the fact that this kid has had 2 serious drinking related incidents. His own high school coach worries about him being in South Beach.

The draft is loaded with pass rushers, none of the Nose Tackles in this draft are as good as Dan Williams. He is a do it all type of NT not just a space eater. "Drafting NT in the first round are not sure things" well neither is any other position. Dumb argument

The reason behind a good NT is to take up two blockers to allow the LBs to make the plays

LUG - Agreed. The NT in the 3-4 has the "0-technique" position. They must take up two blockers. The best even take up three (Ted Washington, Jerry Ball, etc.) Some would say that this is the lynch pin of the 3-4 defense. Without someone talented at this position, you will not get the pressure from your linebackers and your DBs are in jeopardy.

The only argument he made that sways me at all is that a NT might not be worth #12 money (and our pick is not getting less than Moreno). I still we should go DT if a good one is there (note: this does not include Terrence Cody)

Outside of NT the next big hole is OLB......Porter is gone, Taylor is a FA, and the team has brought in 0 FA's at that position...

What the team needs is to add another LB who can help to make the defense dominate, who can get some consistent pressure on the qb, and give quality run support. And we all know that Parcells loves him some LB!

I say go with Kindle at #12 as you know what you're getting with him and what you're getting is a lot!

KINDLE sucks. His hips are too stiff, and it shows. He doesn't turn and run, or change direction as well as a lot of others vying for MIAMI's attention. He's V GHOULSON (sp?) all over again.

If playing time constituted how good a player is, then I guess Tom Brady sucked, Kurt Warner sucked, Wes Welker, Shannon Sharpe, Ahman Green....the list goes on. A lot of guys don't play that big of a role their first couple of years.

Overrated:Richard has picked another guy that none of us are too fond of, Texas’s Sergio Kindle who “does not generate leg drive and is stiff and awkward in space”. ‘Mechanical’ is a word all three of us use often to describe Kindle’s game.

NT can be found anywhere in this draft. A guy like McClain never ever comes Miami's way. And when it does(i.e. Pat Willis) we've passed on him. I think we start to rebuild the linebackers now and rebuild the DL later in the draft.

The majority of the defensive mistakes were because of bad angles by LB's and poor secondary play particularly in nickel and dime packages. Which IMHO is where Wilson got exposed the most. Playing the 3-4 requires LB's to be very instinctive, disciplined, and a sure handed tackler. Neither which our LB'd resembled any of that criteria. With Dansby, drafting McClain could bolster this unit because IMHO he can play any one of the 4 LB positions.