I looked but couldn't find any previous Survey Iowa polls with which to gauge momentum. This may be the first, which makes it difficult to gauge who is really up and who is really down.

But it's clear that Gephardt is in the driver's seat in this must-win state for him. Kerry, on the other hand, has to view these results with concern. The second-place winner will garner valuable momentum heading into the NH primary the following week. (Though technically, Kerry is statistically tied with Dean given this poll's massive 4.4% margin of error.)