The fate Elizabeth May’s by-election challenge

According to Elections Canada, Elizabeth May failed to win the London-North-Centre by-election. The official results with all polls reporting in are:

Lib: 34.9%

Green: 25.9%

Cons: 24.4%

NDP: 14.1%

My predictions, based on the predictions of other bloggers, and various statistical techniques were:

Lib: 32.3%

Green: 18.9%

Cons: 24.9%

NDP: 23.1%

What I find interesting is how close my Liberal and Conservative numbers were to the actual results all the while my numbers failed to predict a massive shift from the New Democrats to the Greens. It appears that regardless whether the Greens are on the left or not, NDP voters either don’t care, believe that the Greens are on the left, or believe Elizabeth May personally is on the left.

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