Statistical strengths and weaknesses of the Championship 4

By David Smith | MotorsportsAnalytics.com | Thursday, November 15, 2018

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David Smith of MotorsportsAnalytics.com previews the Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series finale at the 1.5-mile Homestead-Miami Speedway by analyzing key statistical strengths and weaknesses for each of the Championship 4 drivers.

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Joey Logano: Key Strength

Logano's chances of a top-10 finish increase from 58.3 percent to 78.3 percent when he starts inside the top 10, based on his qualifying efforts this season. Clean air has been in ample supply for him during the last nine races, in which his No. 22 entry ranks third in Central Speed, providing him with the fastest Playoff car he's ever had heading into a Homestead-Miami finale.

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Joey Logano: Key Weakness

In the event Sunday's race is a relatively caution-free affair, Logano will be forced into the situation that finds him most vulnerable: green-flag pit cycles. Todd Gordon's 48.2 percent position retention on green-flag pit cycles is tied for the worst rate among full-time crew chiefs. Across the last three seasons, Logano and Gordon lost 247 positions in these situations, the most of any driver-crew chief combo during that span.

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Martin Truex Jr.: Key Strength

Among front-running drivers, Truex ranks as the third-most efficient passer this year on moderate intermediate tracks, where he's collected an adjusted pass differential 35 positions better than expected from a driver with his average running position. He's especially adept on restarts, where he ranks inside the top six for position retention from both the preferred and non-preferred grooves, and second among Championship 4 drivers.

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Martin Truex Jr.: Key Weakness

The raw speed that had become Furniture Row Racing's signature waned in the two recent rounds of the Playoffs. Truex's No. 78 car ranked 13th in Central Speed in the Round of 12 and fifth during the Round of 8. It was the fastest car in the Playoff opener at Las Vegas, a 1.5-mile track, but regressed at Kansas and Texas, ranking ninth and seventh in single-race speed, respectively.

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Kyle Busch: Key Strength

Based on average finish (8.4), this is the best iteration of Busch we've ever seen. He's finished third or better in 17 races -- four more than his rival Kevin Harvick -- and that’s partially due to his team's ability to conjure and capitalize on late-race speed. His No. 18 car ranks as the fastest in the final quarters of races this season, helping provide a 0.3-position improvement during the final one-tenth of races.

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Kyle Busch: Key Weakness

Busch hasn't had the fastest car in a single event since the race at Michigan International Speedway on Aug. 12, and while he's managed to score two victories since -- at 0.75-mile Richmond and 1-mile ISM Raceway -- this is a troubling trend heading into a winner-take-all scenario. In his last four starts on 1.5-mile tracks, he's led only one lap.

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Kevin Harvick: Key Strength

Harvick has the fastest car this season and during the Playoffs specifically. He ranks as the year's most efficient passer both overall and on moderate intermediate tracks among Championship 4 drivers. His average result in races with less than the usual number of restarts (5.4) is eight positions better than in races heavy on cautions (13.8). His long-run dominance, though, may no longer be considered invincible ...

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Kevin Harvick: Key Weakness

Suspended following a L1 penalty at Texas, crew chief Rodney Childers won't be on Harvick's pit box this Sunday. The drop-off from Childers to fill-in Tony Gibson is noticeable. Childers, in 2018, has retained Harvick's running position on green-flag pit cycles 64.2 percent of the time when pitting from a top-five position; Gibson did so just 11 percent of the time in 2017 on behalf of Kurt Busch.