Monday, February 6, 2017

the KD’s party leader Ebba Busch Thor surprise on the Sunday tv viewers with a glittering performance in the music So there you go. Can her the charisma to be the silver bullet that is needed to break the party’s curse? Photo: SVT

Fwell there a silver bullet? What would Ebba Busch Thor be able to do to drive the evil out of the Kristdemokaternas body?

No, this is not meant as an article to drive were scoffing with the party of christian values. The christian democrats, it has possibly the most thoughtful and profound ideological heritage of all the Swedish parties. Nor is the idea to mock the party Ebba Busch Thor, whose faith sometimes has been presented as something negative. Busch Thor is a strong political talent, full of energy and with a charm.

But the party seems to be, affected by a curse, and the question if there is any silver bullet is starting to become acute.

trends explains why. The latest parliamentary elections Christian democrats have basically bailed out of preferential votes from the mainly moderate voters. 2014 reached KD eur 4,57 per cent. But then the initial position was still a little bit better than now.

In the polls appears to KD have been cemented at the level of around 3 per cent. KD lacks a percentage point up to the latch. It may sound little, but in a normal turnout, with just over 6 million voters, is required in other words, more than 60 000 preferential votes.

Historically, it is not obvious that the support of the size is to be reckoned with.

Politics is no exact science. You can not, should not, say that the race is run for KD, or a voice at the party is wasted.

However, a party who has 3% of its own power are much less attractive than a party that has 3.5 per cent.

Valspurtar is not always so eventful as you might remember them. Professor Henrik Ekengren Oscarsson has reviewed the väljarförändringar during the last four weeks of the electoral campaign for the elections between 1968 and 2010 (Battle for public opinion, SNS 2013). Which caught, to some extent, even stödröstandet.

for Example, the social democrats have a history of losing on average 1.2 percentage points over the valspurten. The left has a history of going up in almost all races. It is explained with the most famous stödröstandet: it is called "Comrade four percent."

A large party’s, which itself had 40 to 45 per cent in large parts of the period of measurement could generate one percentage point of preferential votes.

the Conservatives of the day is half as large, a 20-procentsparti.

Nothing is impossible. the Christian democrats have made a couple of big valspurtar through the years. In 1985, when Alf Svensson got his riksdagsplats thanks to valteknisk cooperation with the Centre party, went KD actually up 2.5 per cent during the election campaign. 1998 the closest stormed KD up by 3.1 percentage points during the election campaign. 2010 KD up exactly to 1.0.

But normally wins a lot is not a whole percentage point in an election campaign. Stödröstandet, which is only a portion of the spurtresultatet, is normally less than a percentage point.

Christian democrats, of course, picking voters from the couch. Perhaps, the batch re-saved with the help of valteknisk interaction. There are several scenarios and it is far to be the day of the election.

But the absolute best would be if the Ebba Busch Thor could find that silver bullet. A single issue that could break the curse.