Actually, im just opening a chilean pinot noir, toasting my friends in Savannah who have just been told to evacuate and are therefore joining the exodus -

As I hastened through, more and more people joined the painful exodus. Sad, weary women, their children stumbling and streaked with tears, their men bitter and angry, the rich rubbing shoulder with beggars and outcasts. Dogs snarled and whined, the horses' bits were covered with foam…...

Any guesses? Think Richard Burton

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Just over 64.3% of statistics are made up, the rest are lies.

Actually, im just opening a chilean pinot noir, toasting my friends in Savannah who have just been told to evacuate and are therefore joining the exodus -

As I hastened through, more and more people joined the painful exodus. Sad, weary women, their children stumbling and streaked with tears, their men bitter and angry, the rich rubbing shoulder with beggars and outcasts. Dogs snarled and whined, the horses' bits were covered with foam…...

Any guesses? Think Richard Burton

Not poems and rubbish....SCIENCE!

My favourite book of all time (although we're quoting the Jeff Wayne Musical adaption, of course).

I think, you will probably correct me, it was easier for a while to emigrate to Australia than it was to a lot of European countries. I am talking pre-1970.

There was the Assisted Passage Migration Scheme, aka Ten Pound Poms, which gave preference and assistance to British and Irish citizens who wished to migrate to Australia after the war, as part of the 'Populate or Perish' policy. It was probably no easier than moving to Western Europe at the time but the difference was that Australia was actively encouraging migrants to make the trip.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Miss Ann Thrope

Yes, and how do you think they are going to fare post-Brexit?

A 15% tariff is unlikely to make a huge difference to BMW or Mercedes sellers and buyers in Colchester. But to Nissan buyers in Grenoble????

Given that the pound has dropped 15% against the Euro since the referendum result I would suggest it would make no difference at all.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Miss Ann Thrope

For what? What exactly is the UK going to be able to sell in huge additional quantities into any of those markets? In return for basically destroying British agriculture...

It will merely be more of what we are selling them now. The US is our largest national export destination without any FTA and behind a EU tariff barrier. Why exactly do you think leaving the EU is going to destroy British agriculture?

I think that is [email protected] false equivalence. Brexit is motivated entirely by ideology. There is no rational social or economic policy basis for pursuing Brexit, at least none that I have ever heard. That's fine if you subscribe to the ideology but not for those of us who don't or who attempt any form of rational analysis of the likely outcome. By far most of the BS in this argument is now being spouted by those in favour of Brexit largely about fanciful notions of Britain being liberated to take it's place in the world. It's already clear that the reality of that place is going to come as a profoundly rude shock to the delirious flag-wavers. You yourself have pointed out one implication that is bound to horrify many who voted for Brexit: as the UK continues to need immigration to maintain a working age population to pay for its social services, mostly white European immigrants will be replaced by mostly brown immigrants from elsewhere . After all, there will be a price to pay for this oft-touted free-trade deal with India....

Given that the pound has dropped 15% against the Euro since the referendum result I would suggest it would make no difference at all.

It will merely be more of what we are selling them now. The US is our largest national export destination without any FTA and behind a EU tariff barrier. Why exactly do you think leaving the EU is going to destroy British agriculture?

The Brexit devaluation is almost certainly not going to save UK manufacturing industry because all of the raw materials and components required are still denominated in dollars and euro (steel, oil, gas, plastics, board etc), even when they are not imported. Therefore the cost base of UK industry is not going to alter all that much in trading currency terms. There ought to have been a short term benefit until the supply chains come back into balance but interestingly there does not seem to have been much uptick in UK hard goods exports since the devaluation. I'm old enough to remember the Black Wednesday devaluation in the early nineties and that didn't result in a huge boost for UK industry for exactly the same reason.

In my work I am involved in sourcing materials for and from a global network including the UK and other European countries. Already we have encountered an increasing number of UK manufacturers seeking to price their goods in euro in order to manage their currency risk (suck on that Farage). Some European manufacturers that we deal with are already openly discussing their efforts to develop alternative sources for components currently sourced from the UK on the expectation that they will be subject to WTO tariffs following a hard Brexit.

I have to say the general view I encounter in manufacturing industry, certainly with all non-UK businesses and, frankly, also with most exporting UK businesses, is: "what the hell is the UK doing to itself?"

As regards the destruction of UK agriculture: well consider the trading partners most often mentioned as replacements for the EU - US, Canada, Australia, New Zealand. What is the one thing these economies all have in common? A highly developed and mechanised agricultural sector which is far more efficient than the geographically and historically constrained UK sector. Clearly a minimal price for a trade deal with any of these countries will be to open access to the UK market for their agricultural products, many of which are currently restricted, often, particularly in the case of the US, by EU consumer safety rules.

Again based on personal experience, I believe it will be increasingly impossible for much of UK agriculture, as it is currently set up (many family farms etc) to compete in this scenario. Having previously been part of an effort to revive the growth of a particular crop in the UK which had already been largely lost to the prairies of Canada, I know how quick and devastating these changes can be.

And all those unemployed factory workers won't be able to afford local artisanal produce especially when they can bulk buy BST beef and GMO tomatoes.

I dearly don't want it to come to this but the continued unbelievable cluelessness of the Brexit brigade that is leading the country leads to me to increasingly believe that is the sorry future that awaits us.

I think that is [email protected] false equivalence. Brexit is motivated entirely by ideology. There is no rational social or economic policy basis for pursuing Brexit, at least none that I have ever heard. That's fine if you subscribe to the ideology but not for those of us who don't or who attempt any form of rational analysis of the likely outcome. By far most of the BS in this argument is now being spouted by those in favour of Brexit largely about fanciful notions of Britain being liberated to take it's place in the world. It's already clear that the reality of that place is going to come as a profoundly rude shock to the delirious flag-wavers. You yourself have pointed out one implication that is bound to horrify many who voted for Brexit: as the UK continues to need immigration to maintain a working age population to pay for its social services, mostly white European immigrants will be replaced by mostly brown immigrants from elsewhere . After all, there will be a price to pay for this oft-touted free-trade deal with India....

Don't rise to the bait.

Remember, this negotiation is about the important things for the flag wavers and headline-readers. You know, things like the below, to show Johnny Foreigner we're better by returning to what made Britain 'Great' etc.

Just to put a bit of perspective here, look what happens to just the airline industry post Brexit, it could be a real nightmare especially with Spain vetoing any agreement because of Gibraltar.......and this is just the Airline Industry!

Its quite amusing watching a bunch of bremoaners working themselves up into a lather. So long as such attitudes remain in the eu, britain can sleep sound knowing that the explosion in europe is ongoing. Oh - and the hole in the budget - you havent bremoaned that much lately?

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Just over 64.3% of statistics are made up, the rest are lies.

Its quite amusing watching a bunch of bremoaners working themselves up into a lather. So long as such attitudes remain in the eu, britain can sleep sound knowing that the explosion in europe is ongoing. Oh - and the hole in the budget - you havent bremoaned that much lately?

An excellent statement of empty-headed ideological nonsense bereft of any substance (though not short of essential name-calling). It's a particular contrast with the immediate prior post from a poster, who has generally sounded pro-Brexit, but here has posted a link to a useful piece of analysis showing the real challenges facing just one very important industry for the UK (there's a whole series of articles that could be written about all the other similarly challenged industries, starting with automotive which accounts for a huge supply chain in the UK currently).

Its quite amusing watching a bunch of bremoaners working themselves up into a lather. So long as such attitudes remain in the eu, britain can sleep sound knowing that the explosion in europe is ongoing. Oh - and the hole in the budget - you havent bremoaned that much lately?

And they wonder why people who voted to remain call them thick.

Interesting article DubaiExile. I imagine surely that there will be a swift deal struck to make sure Spain, Italy, France, Portugal et al don't lose their holiday makers from Britain. I expect we do make up a fair percentage and making that more expensive by penalising low cost carriers wouldn't be popular on the Costa del Sol.

I hope all these things get sensible resolutions, but then again, why should we receive similarly good rights or access if we aren't part of the club? Are we that important / powerful / wanted that the aforementioned nations would fight to keep our flight costs down?

Toss a coin I guess.

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"When you ain't got no money, you gotta get an attitude" - Richard Pryor.

Interesting article DubaiExile. I imagine surely that there will be a swift deal struck to make sure Spain, Italy, France, Portugal et al don't lose their holiday makers from Britain. I expect we do make up a fair percentage and making that more expensive by penalising low cost carriers wouldn't be popular on the Costa del Sol.

I hope all these things get sensible resolutions, but then again, why should we receive similarly good rights or access if we aren't part of the club? Are we that important / powerful / wanted that the aforementioned nations would fight to keep our flight costs down?

Toss a coin I guess.

True, its all about new/changed dynamics, the winners and losers. We will be importing more from outside the eu without a doubt, looking forward to that for vehicles foodstuffs and electronics. The eu has to decide whether they want our business. We will be outside the most protectionist blocs paywall in the world so our exports to non eu will also grow.

Ive seen the FOB costs of new cars, its all down to the government how much to add, currently behind the paywall they take 30-40% but as some of the largest car parts plants in asia are actually british owned, and we own most of the basic IP for brakes, dampers, and a few other goodies it dhouldnt take too long to find a mutually beneficial tariff.

The thames gateway port is set to double in size, funded by the UAE and i have heard some encouraging predictions from a vast shipping co i used to work for.

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Just over 64.3% of statistics are made up, the rest are lies.