Jeanne Shaheen Leads Scott Brown In Early New Hampshire Senate Polls

On Friday, former Massaschusetts Senator Scott Brown effectively threw his hat in the ring for the GOP nomination to challenge Jeane Shaheen in New Hampshire when he announced the formation of an exploratory committee and the start of the ubiquitous listening tour that candidates who are running-for-office-but-not-officially-yet engage in. Today, the first real polls released after Brown’s announcement shows him trailing Shaheen:

Former Sen. Scott Brown (R-Mass.), who announced last week he was forming an exploratory committee to run for the Senate in New Hampshire, starts his bid as the underdog.

Half of the dozen surveys taken on the matchup so far have found Shaheen leading by 10 points or more. With one exception — a January poll that found the race tied — all put her ahead. HuffPost Pollster’s tracking model gives her a lead of just over 9 points.

Here’s the polling chart from Huffpost/Pollster with Shaheen’s numbers in blue and Brown’s in red (RealClearPolitics does not have a chart available for the race):

It’s still early in the race, of course, but judging from the numbers so far it looks like Brown will have an uphill battle ahead of him.

Comments

Even though recently a lot of action in the House and Senate are along strict party lines, it isn’t that hard to imagine that a former senator from another state has your state’s best interest at heart, regardless of whether or not he lists his vacation home as his official residence. That said at least he technically could claim to live there, unlike Luger or Roberts.

Brown’s battle would defy historical odds. No person has been elected Senator from more than one state since the adoption of the 17th Amendment. There are three Senators who have represented more than one state, but they were all appointed by state legislatures in the 19th Century.

Carpetbagging will be a problem for him. But there’s also the fundamental problem of his message. Sometimes he sounds like a Rockefeller Republican. And sometimes he sounds like a Rockefeller Republican whose campaign managers goaded into being a loudmouth a**hole so as to appeal to the base.

Here in Brazil, Jose Sarney, a former President that controls the politics of his home state(Maranhão, where his daughter is the governor) was elected Senator in another State(Amapá). Many people here thinks that´s a scandal, and that´s prime example of coronelismo/caudillism. Some people in the State of Amapá complains that their state has just two senators while Maranhão has four.

There is a reason why it´s so difficult to win seats in different states. One can argue that carpetbagging is a cheap campaign slur, on the other hand there is a legitimate case to argue that Scott Brown could be representing Massachusetts´(At least in part), not New Hampshire´s interests on the Senate.

I’m from NH and don’t care for either Shaheen or Brown. However if having Brown as my Senator means my life will suck one tenth of one percent less then he is getting my vote in November if he turns out to be the GOP’s guy.