On Sunday, the German chancellor’s conservatives will kick off a week of talks with the Social Democrats (SPD) on whether to start formal negotiations on forming another “grand coalition."

Her Christian Democrats (CDU) were the strongest party in last September's general election, but also suffered heavy losses to the far right. When an attempt to form a new government with the Greens and Free Democrats failed in November, the reluctant SPD — still licking its wounds after its worst post-war election result — became the chancellor’s only option to form a stable government.

Should the talks fail, Germany would likely be headed for fresh elections — and it’s far from certain that Merkel’s CDU, let alone its Bavarian sister party the Christian Social Union (CSU), would stand united behind her during another campaign.

Here are five issues that could derail the talks:

1. Migration

Few issues in Germany are as controversial as how to deal with the influx of migrants to Europe.

The CSU, backed by the more conservative wing of Merkel's CDU, has repeatedly blamed the chancellor's open-door response to the 2015-2016 refugee crisis for damaging their bloc's reputation, and they believe it contributed in no small measure to September's election disappointment.

Spooked by the success of the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD), the Bavarians have made clear they won't give up on some of the die-hard demands they've made during the last two years as a way to discourage more migrants from heading to Germany.

Expect them to insist on a cap on the overall number of asylum seekers allowed into the country, on blocking asylum seekers from bringing their family members to Germany, and on cutting benefits for refugees.

View of temporary housing units for refugees in the former Tempelhof airport in Berlin on December 4, 2017 | John MacDougall/AFP via Getty Images

Such demands put them on a collision course with the center-left SPD. Asked about the CSU's migration plans, SPD deputy leader Ralf Stegner told public broadcaster RBB earlier this week that “none of this will happen with the SPD.”

Potential for conflict: 8/10

Room for compromise: Some. When, at the end of the exploratory talks, the three parties get down to writing their draft agreement on migration, they could come up with vague formulations that would allow each party to present the result as a success to their supporters.

2. Taxes

At first glance, the parties seem to be on the same page when it comes to taxation — they all want cuts in light of Germany’s economic success and the country's balanced budget.

But when it comes to the details, things are less clear.

While some conservatives have proposed cutting taxes for all Germans, including high-earners, the Social Democrats have slammed those proposals as “absurd.” They want to significantly reduce taxes for lower- and middle-income citizens and pay for that by increasing the burden on top earners.

Potential for conflict: 3/10

Room for compromise: Plenty. Officials from all parties agree privately that they don't see the talks failing over this issue.

3. Kill your darlings

Things will be more difficult when it comes to the pet projects of the SPD and the CSU.

The Social Democrats are eager to push through an old demand of theirs to reform the German health insurance system. By creating a Bürgerversicherung, or “citizens insurance,” they hope to put an end to the country’s two-tier health care system. Both the CDU and CSU strongly oppose the idea.

However, the CSU wants to increase the pensions that older mothers receive (as a way of not penalizing them for being stay-at-home moms) — something the other parties oppose, arguing that this would not help solve Germany's problem of old-age poverty. Instead, they call for more support for older citizens at risk of falling into poverty.

Potential for conflict: 10/10

Room for compromise: Little. Both parties will likely have to wave goodbye to their pet project or see the talks collapse. However, making a concession here could help win support elsewhere in the negotiations.

4. Europe

All three parties run on pro-European tickets and favor deepening EU integration, but they disagree on how far this should go.

The SPD will take the most radical stance at the negotiating table. To make sure everyone is aware where his party stands, leader Martin Schulz — a former European Parliament president — recently resurrected the SPD’s 1925 demand to create a “United States of Europe."

His party supports the vast majority of proposals put forward by French President Emmanuel Macron on how to reform the EU, including the creation of a eurozone budget and finance minister.

French President Emmanuel Macron | Ludovic Marin/AFP via Getty Images

While Merkel and her CDU have also embraced some of Macron’s suggestions — such as harmonizing corporate tax regimes and creating a European Monetary Fund — they are more reserved when it comes to reforms of European institutions.

And then there are the Bavarians — by far the most critical of further European integration. To make clear where they stand, CSU leaders invited Hungary's hardline leader Viktor Orbán, arguably Merkel’s most high-profile opponent on the European stage, to a party summit at the weekend, right before the talks get started.

Potential for conflict: 5/10

Room for compromise: Plenty. All parties are aware that any decision they make regarding Europe won't be put into action for some time.

5. Military spending

Finally there's the issue of how much Germany should spend on defense in the years to come.

While the conservative bloc has repeatedly said they want to raise Germany’s military spending further and eventually reach the NATO target of 2 percent of GDP, the SPD rejected such talk during the last couple of years as the junior partner in the governing coalition.

Potential for conflict: 9/10

Room for compromise: Little. While some officials suggest that a compromise could be found by broadening the definition of what's considered military spending — by, for example, including money currently being spent on development aid or cybersecurity efforts — others are skeptical that the parties will find common ground on the issue.

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Joe

I sympathized with her but connection with migration she bit off more than she could chew.

Posted on 1/4/18 | 4:47 AM CET

Joe

Probably there is a bleeding wound deep in the German’s soul what produced out a lot pessimistic, childless, suicide characters during the last decades. It looks as if they rather kill their own society not guard it and they want others do the same. They bored to live. Who is responsible for all of this..

Posted on 1/4/18 | 5:52 AM CET

Observer

CDU must force Merkel to step down and make a coalition with CSU, FD and AfD. This is only soultion for this situation in Germany. In case of new election AfD certainly will win at least 25% of votes and then CDU will be in much bigger trouble.

Posted on 1/4/18 | 6:09 AM CET

Joe

@Observer
Prophetic words!

Posted on 1/4/18 | 6:20 AM CET

contango

I agree, this is the best possible outcome but even then its gonna be a fairly short-lived arrangement

they’re are gonna have to have snap elections sooner or later

Posted on 1/4/18 | 9:54 AM CET

dc

@Observer
@Joe
And before general elections there are local elections in Bavaria where CSU will loose even more votes than during last elections, if coalition with SPD happens with even part of SPD’s demands satisfied.
Merkel would probably agree on anything just to stay in power for another 4 years.
But CSU just can not afford it.

Posted on 1/4/18 | 10:25 AM CET

alan

You fail to mention Gabriels call for a ‘strong, armed UN peace-keeping force’ in Ukraine in advance of the next Russian elections but in fairness that has only popped up in the last day or so. Since France & Germany aim to propose this at the UN I presume they will be making a substantial financial & military contribution & are prepared to put their armed forces in harms way.

Posted on 1/4/18 | 10:38 AM CET

Pex.t

Seems that the freedom of speech is already a banned value…

I’ve read in some places that the German “constitution” imposes a maximal delay between the election and the formation of a new government, and that we are already over this delay and that the law imposes that new elections must take place…could some German commentator gives some information about this…

Posted on 1/4/18 | 11:12 AM CET

Veritas-Semper

Well then, Mutti is “cooked”. Period.

Posted on 1/4/18 | 11:58 AM CET

vbzsolti75

“CDU must force Merkel to step down and make a coalition with CSU, FD and AfD. This is only soultion for this situation in Germany” (by Observer)

Good to see that others are coming on same conclusion as myself. Although, as of today this scenario is very unlikely yet…. but let’s hope that there is still hope for a great country as Germany.

Posted on 1/4/18 | 4:30 PM CET

Jmc0891

Just go away Mutti. You’ve done enough of damage already.

Posted on 1/4/18 | 9:04 PM CET

Priscilla du Bleu

@Pex.t:
“Seems that the freedom of speech is already a banned value…

I’ve read in some places that the German “constitution” imposes a maximal delay between the election and the formation of a new government, and that we are already over this delay and that the law imposes that new elections must take place…could some German commentator gives some information about this…”

Free speech is a permanent value in Germany :-D. What you read is utter rubbish, which is why no one comments on it.

Priscilla du Bleu

@dc
“Merkel would probably agree on anything just to stay in power for another 4 years.”

She certainly wouldn’t lower herself on the maybot’s level and buy herself the votes of DUPing extremists with one billion :-D. Unlike our good old treeza, she does not form coalitions with ultra-right wingers, the AfD have no chance.

Posted on 1/4/18 | 10:30 PM CET

Priscilla du Bleu

@Observer
“CDU must force Merkel to step down and make a coalition with CSU, FD and AfD”

The FDP fporming a cross-party government with the AfD? Not in this universe.

And please educate yourself so your bashing becomes less embarrassing for you: the CSU is a bavarian party ONLY, the bavarian little sister of the CDU. The CSU hence only can be voted for in BAVARIA, it does not even exist in the other federal states … where big sister CDU is electable.

Are you suggesting that the other 15 Bundeslaender are going to be governed by a bavarian head of state, then???? Or what?

Posted on 1/4/18 | 10:38 PM CET

Priscilla du Bleu

@Joe
“Probably there is a bleeding wound deep in the German’s soul what produced out a lot pessimistic, childless, suicide characters during the last decades. It looks as if they rather kill their own society not guard it and they want others do the same. They bored to live. Who is responsible for all of this..”

Who is responsible for this?
1. your weird imagination.
2. your inability to use google.

Suicide rate in germany 9.2, hence midrange. UK 6.2, RoI 11.00.

Google “A map of Europe by suicide rates in each country” and ‘indy100’ and you will find the entire map.

Although, given your intelligence – respectively the lack of, you might even fail to execute a simple google search :-D.

Posted on 1/4/18 | 10:45 PM CET

Stan

Just out of interest, how long has it taken in the past to form a coalition? I note that in other European countries it has taken far longer. Is this a particularly drawn out affair for Germany?

Posted on 1/5/18 | 12:38 AM CET

Priscilla du Bleu

@Stan
“Just out of interest, how long has it taken in the past to form a coalition? I note that in other European countries it has taken far longer. Is this a particularly drawn out affair for Germany?”

Stan, this is a first time for Germany, and Minister Schaeuble (chancellor of the exchequer) properly called it ‘a challenge, not a crisis’, because – as i posted above – the country is not without a government, since the former government will remain in charge and fully functional until l the new one is formed.

The german government provides detailed info on previous timeframes on their ‘biundestag’ website starting in 1990. unfortunately, i may not post a link here for the PDF. The previous maximum was 86 days in 2013, and this government has – successfully – lasted until this very day. The shortest period was 30 days.

I can not comment inner german issues.
But from the EU point of view, the good point is, that all german parties are pro – european.
The Bavarians may cause problems, Orban definitely is searching for allies. I hope Orban will remain isolated.

Posted on 1/7/18 | 3:27 PM CET

Priscilla du Bleu

@Boyan Taksirov
Bavaria has always been very pro-europen as well, and the late Ministerpraesident Franz-Josef Strauss already in the 1960s/-70s actively promoted the EU. He was an ardent fan of Coudenhove – Kalergi. So are all his successors. Bavaria hosts most german HQs of international industry, more than any other bundesland (my brit dad used to be the managing director of a US IT giant in Munich, so i have some insight into bavarian economy from my childhood spent there).

You are right about the present MP Seehofer being a pain in the proverbial, though, but luckily, his days are numbered. As is his influence.

Posted on 1/7/18 | 4:18 PM CET

Priscilla du Bleu

@trolls:
“(my brit dad used to be the managing director of a US IT giant in Munich, so i have some insight into bavarian economy from my childhood spent there).”

I believe this qualifies as ‘boasting’ in your eyes (not as background info). I did it only for you!!!

😀 😀 😀

Posted on 1/7/18 | 4:22 PM CET

Helmut

dc

Reality bites and makes coalition talks more challenging everyday.

8 Jan 2018: “An Austrian teenager has been charged on several ter2or-related counts, including inciting and instructing a 12-year-old German-1raqi boy to carry out an at1ack on a Christmas market, Austrian press agency APA reported Sunday.

The Vienna prosecution authority accuses the now 18-year-old Austrian boy Lorenz K. of instigating vi0lence, attempted use of an expl0sive device and membership in a ter2orist organization. “

Priscilla du Bleu

‘dc’ has just found put that Europe exists of more countries than Germany, so he starts bashing Austria now.

Well, dearest ‘dc’, as long as Mutti doesn’t need to buy herself for a billion votes from alt-right extremists like the german version of the DUPers her case is not lost. And the Germans don’t tend to publish news that need to be revoked after 10 seconds …. Mister Grayling, anyone??

Posted on 1/9/18 | 8:29 AM CET

dc

@Priscilla
Mutti seems not to care very much about security situation in Germany – I agree.
But CSU with local elections in Bavaria coming soon does not seem to be so relaxed as Mutti about that.
Probably news about change of mood in Vienna reach Munich faster than Berlin.