Romney hits 50 percent for first time in new ABC/WaPo tracking poll

posted at 6:41 pm on October 25, 2012 by Allahpundit

Of the last seven national polls taken, he leads five and is tied in another. Four of those polls now have him up by exactly three points, and three of them — Rasmussen, Gallup, and this one — now have the race precisely at 50/47. Consensus.

Second look at getting rid of the electoral college?

Romney does now boast a statistically — and substantively — important lead on the economy, which has long been the central issue of the race. When it comes to handling the nation’s struggling economy, 52 percent of likely voters say they trust Romney more, while 43 percent say they have more faith in the president…

Romney’s improvements on the economy — and on empathizing with the plight of those struggling financially — has been fueled by gains among political independents. Independents now side with Romney by campaign highs on both the economy (61 to 34 percent) and on understanding people’s problems (52 to 42 percent).

These advantages with independents undergird a sizable, 19 percentage-point Romney lead over Obama on the horse race. Should that advantage stick, it would be the sharpest tilt among independents in a presidential election since Ronald Reagan’s 1984 landslide win. (Reagan won independent and other unaffiliated voters 63 to 36 percent, according to the exit poll). Obama won them by eight in 2008.

The curious thing about the ABC/WaPo tracker? As late as October 13, fully 10 days after Romney’s big debate win, they still had Obama up three points. The movement towards Mitt has come over the past 10 days, even though Obama supposedly “won” the last two debates. The obvious explanation is that fencesitters are tilting red as they think harder about O’s economic record; remember, while the insta-poll after the second debate had Obama ahead overall, it was Romney who scored big on the economy. That was what mattered. In fact, two of the four nights of interviews conducted for this poll came after Obama’s “victory” in the third debate, and yet Romney’s numbers are better now than they were on Monday, when he trailed by a point.

As for that mind-boggling lead among independents, the D+4 sample here is helping to neutralize it but it’s hard to imagine how Romney loses if he’s trending this way among indies and erasing the gender gap. I’m eager to see new polls from Ohio and Wisconsin next week; if there really is a 50/47 national consensus forming, it has to bleed into those states. Doesn’t it?

Meditate on that while you watch the greatest vice president in history in action.

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I think historical evidence would prove you correct, however, I believe there is so much hate toward the Blightbringer that the 2010 midterms/Obamacare opposition/Gov Walker recall/ChickFilA protests type of momentum we have seen past 24 mos. will result in a +7 R/R win…tsunami is a comin’

“I’m Barack Obama, and I uhhh… I uhhhh… David, are you sure this is a good idea? This ad isn’t running in Virginia or D.C. is it? If Sasha and Malia see this, Michelle will kill me. Alright… I’m Barack Obama, and I uhhhh– Jesus, I can’t believe its come to this– I’m Barack Obama, and, regretfully, I approve this message.”

I drive past the IBEW union hall everyday. For a long time, they only had a sign for the guy running against Paul Ryan for the House seat. It wasn’t until last week that they put out a pretty small 0bama sign, and an even smaller Tammy Baldwin sign. Just recently there has been an increase in 0bama signs in SE Wisconsin, but there are also lots of RR signs out.

One can find logic in debate performance numbers, as in stacking sales numbers. After first debate Romney convinced 60% of undecideds. So if/when Obama “won” second debate- he convinced 50% of the 40% left after first debate, and then 50% of the last 50% off 40%. So in final numbers Romney got 60%, Oblammer got 25%, and the last 15% are brain dead, or far out commies/libertarians. And that is my analisys.

My CONSERVATIVE niece just FB’d that she just got her polling abserver assignment today.
She lives in Wimlington, NC.
Have asked her for any stories she hears of, or is party to.
She LOL’d when I asked her if she was given a light blue hard hat. ;-)

This Allred play was not the October surprise. It was meant to be a distraction, nothing more, and if she’d gotten the gag order lifted, it would have sucked up a few news cycles, taking air time away from Benghazi.

The real October Surprise will be a phenomenal Jobs Report next week. Obama hopes that it will have the same effect on his campaign as the first debate did on Romney’s.

Rush, Hannity, Levin, Hewitt, Bruce, this site…anyone within earshot of a microphone or who writes for a blog needs to begin a preemptive blunting of a cooked jobs report.

The New York Times Co (NYT.N) posted worse-than-expected results on Thursday as advertisers cut spending on both print and digital outlets, sending its shares down 22 percent.

also

The weak quarterly earnings came as a scandal is unfolding at Britain’s public broadcaster the BBC, whose former head Mark Thompson is due to take the helm at the New York Times Co as president and CEO on November 12.

Any chance Missouri voters caught a little Romnesia and Akin have any chance at winning?

El_Terrible on October 25, 2012 at 7:54 PM

I’ve mentioned anecdotal evidence that there are a lot more yard signs for Akin around here than McCaskill, but just in the last week, it’s gotten so ridiculous that even I’m shocked. And I’m in North Saint Louis County which is a very blue section of the county.

Before I pass this around, help me be sure of the motivation .. he was beaten for being on the side of a gay Dem’s GOP opponent, yes ??

pambi on October 25, 2012 at 7:27 PM

From the article:

Wood said his attacker’s reference to a warning likely pointed to graffiti he found painted on his car last week. The vandalism included the phrases “house trained republican f@ggot,” “traitor,” and “ur like a jew 4 hitler.”

Unless he staged it all himself, it seems kind of cut and dry. The left in Wisconsin is quite violent.

This may be wishful thinking on my part—starting to wonder if Obama and his disgusting team are trying to throw this race.

The three debates totally exposed Obama for the fraud/liar that he is in front of 70M people.
His rediculous behavior on the campaign trail does nothing to help him win Independents/undecided only to fire up voters with the same adolescent mindset as his.

Does Obama and his team of liars really want to be in office when the truth about Benghazi hits the fan? Does he really want to be impeached in his second term, or get the blame for Iran getting a nuke, or all the other disasters to come?

Has Obama realized it’s not going to be as much fun to be a celebrity president the next four years?
He’s less likely to be prosecuted for the Benghazi coverup if he’s an ex-president.

This Allred play was not the October surprise. It was meant to be a distraction, nothing more, and if she’d gotten the gag order lifted, it would have sucked up a few news cycles, taking air time away from Benghazi.

The real October Surprise will be a phenomenal Jobs Report next week. Obama hopes that it will have the same effect on his campaign as the first debate did on Romney’s.

Rush, Hannity, Levin, Hewitt, Bruce, this site…anyone within earshot of a microphone or who writes for a blog needs to begin a preemptive blunting of a cooked jobs report.

Godzilla on October 25, 2012 at 7:52 PM

Ace has a great post closing the door on the Allred story.

Yes jobs report will be cooked, as the last one was. What big state will be left off this time?

Other October surprises are in the works, bet on it. This crowd is much more malicious than simply being able to fake jobs reports.

They tried a cooked jobs report already, and it did diddly squat. Voters do not typically change their perceptions of a candidate as being good or bad for the economy this late in their term.

In other words, if the Obama campaign was gonna try to do this, they would’ve needed to drastically cook job reports, nearly all year, on a regularly basis.

WolvenOne on October 25, 2012 at 8:43 PM

Obama never expected his reelection to be in jeopardy, or they might have very well cooked the books earlier on. For most ppl, a drop in unemployment to 7.5% will be seen for what it is, a cooked number based on dropping who-knows-how-many tens of thousands of ppl off the rolls of ppl seeking employment. But for some of the squishy middle and the last-minute undecideds, it could be enough to stick with Obama.

In any case, it is prudent to expect such an October Surprise, and act early to blunt its effect.

I’m sure that Romney is already expecting a cooked Jobs report, and in his Economy speech tomorrow will allude to the number of ppl who are arbitrarily being subtracted from the rolls. And how the real unemployment figure is much larger than what is stated.

That he’s giving an economic speech on the Friday before the report comes out is no accident.

I’m a little stunned when I see these polls yet go to MSM sites and read articles that continue to say that they have little doubt that Obama wins this election because the electoral math still favors him. With these polls, where is this advantage I seem to be missing?

I’m a little stunned when I see these polls yet go to MSM sites and read articles that continue to say that they have little doubt that Obama wins this election because the electoral math still favors him. With these polls, where is this advantage I seem to be missing?

Unlike in 2008, Washoe County (home of Reno +20% of state’s voters), never had a day where the GOP had more early voters than Dems. For the past three days, they did just that. Washoe also hasn’t been updating their absentees on a timely basis, though they skew Republian.

Also, Clark County (home to Las Vegas and 70% of state’s voters) has 151,292 early voters after five days, while in ’08 there was only 113171 after the 5th day. The Dems lead after four days is 28,707, while in ’08 the lead was 34552. While this is an improvement, early voting in ’08 was only 60%, while it will probably be around 70% this year. That means it is possible for the Dems to be in a better position with a smaller lead then in ’08, simply because there are even fewer voters left to vote. In ’08, iirc, the Dems actually did better than the GOP on election day voters.

Here are the percentages and comparison with ’08 & ’10.

Percent after 4th day of early voting + absentees:
R 37.3%, D 45.8%, I 16.9%

Dem early vote lead is at about 1½% above the Dem registration advantage of 7%

Total in ’08: R 30.6%, D 51.8%, I 17.5%.
Total in ’10: R 40.2%, D 44.2%, I 15.7%.

***************

In Clark County (70% of state’s population including Las Vegas) early vote after 5th day:
R 31.7, D 50.6%, I 19.3%.

In 2008 after 3rd day:
R 26.7%, D 57.2%, I 16.0%.

Clark County Early votes + absentees:
R 33.0%, D 49.8%, I 17.2%

Dem early vote lead (including absentees) is about 2% above their registration advantage of 15%

Total in ’08: R 30.6%, D 52.0%, I 17.4%.
Total in ’10: R 37.4%, D 46.2%, I 16.4%

***************

In Washoe County (20% of state’s population and home of Reno) early voting after 5 day + absentees after 3rd day of voting.
R 41.1%, D 42.7%, I 16.1%.

Dem early vote lead is about 2½% above the even Dem/GOP registration

Total in ’08: R 35.3%, D 47.1%, I 17.5%.
Total in ’10: R 44.7%, D 40.3%, I 15.0%

***************

To summarize, not as bad as in ’08, but not nearly as good at ’10. The Democrats raw vote lead after ⅓ of early voting (and probably ¼ of the vote) is 22,877. Heller’s chances are dependant on a strong Obama-Heller voter block that can’t stand that Auton Shelley Berkeley.
Posted by: The Political Hat at October 25, 2012 10:06 PM (sZTYJ)”

After the first debate and until the second debate, you could sense the growing confidence among Republicans. But you can sense the fatalism/pessimism/realism sinking in now when the state polls really haven’t moved much, and in Ohio’s case, didn’t move at all.

Nevada may be the tease – it is the only state where Obama has played with 50% and we all know about the Reid machine. Still, Romney is closing, the question will be is it enough.

Everywhere else the walls are caving in. PPP and Marist are throwing out incredibly crazy polling – actually pretty much fradulent polling – to keep the RCP map from flipping and to keep working headlines. Ohio will not be D+5, and all the models are building in factually incorrect polling data on early voters which does not square with the reality on the ground.

As Nevada early voting is not as much better as we would hope, Ohio voting is substantially better for the GOP with Obama losing votes compared to 2008 and Romney gaining. I don’t believe indies will be +20 for Romney, but +10 will be a death wish, which is why Obama is starting to hit Philly.

I am guessing that Ohio will go 52-48 at a minimum for Romney. No gender gap, better early voting, and better enthusiasm and better indies – no way Obama is ahead. And we know everyone but Ras has their LV screens completely screwed up. Still too many RV in the models, suggesting a level of RV – ahem democrat – skew. And RCP pulling NC off because of a PPP garbage poll is a joke.

The media is going to keep challenging us to get down, because they know they must keep GOP voter enthusiasm down. Take solace that the NYT’s is facing labor trouble (just give them what they want cmon) and perhaps staring bankruptcy as ad revenue dries up, which besides the headwinds all newspapers face, plus their particularly bad circulation numbers on top of that, we may get to watch the death of an icon. I would love to see the Koch brothers buy it!!