Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets

Wednesday, August 03, 2011

After reviewing the charts this evening we eliminated one of the potential counts we had posted on the DOW charts: a diagonal Primary wave V. Since the market is already in a downtrend, failing to make a new SPX/DOW high, this count is no longer valid.

Another potential count that now has a low probability is the subdividing Primary wave III count, which was also posted on the DOW charts. As a result of these changes we are now able to place more specific probablities on the remaining counts.

Tuesday, August 02, 2011

Jason Simpkins writes:
It's often said that the sign of a good compromise is that both parties walk away dissatisfied - but that's not necessarily true of the debt deal Congress is close to passing.

To be sure, both parties are dissatisfied with the outcome of this contentious battle. Progressive Democrats are disappointed that planned cuts to government spending won't be augmented with tax increases, while fiscally conservative Republicans are angry that the cuts to spending haven't gone far enough.

Tuesday, August 02, 2011

Martin Hutchinson writes:
There's no question that the Washington fiasco, more commonly referred to as the debt-ceiling crisis, has injected a huge amount of uncertainty to financial markets.

That's bad news for the U.S. economy - which Friday's lousy second-quarter gross-domestic-product (GDP) report demonstrates was already suffering from bad fiscal policy, bad monetary policy and a gross excess of new regulations. This deal didn't really solve any long-term problems, won't head off a federal credit-rating downgrade and all in all only adds to the market uncertainty.

Tuesday, August 02, 2011

After all that's gone on the market is holding where it has to hold. We got the news everyone wanted over the weekend. The two sides agreed upon a very unhappy package that, basically, both sides said it wasn't what they wanted, but it was the best they could do. The Dow futures shot up 200 points last night. The S&P 500 was up 23 and the Nasdaq 36. Things were looking super for the bulls. Even though the package was awful, the market was celebrating the deal. Default averted for the time being. The futures held the majority of its gains overnight, even though European stock markets were struggling for green. The futures were up on the Dow roughly 150 points at 8am. Then about 140 points at the open. That was pretty much it. They started to move down gradually as the first thirty minutes went by. Then something far more important than the debt ceiling package hit at 10am.

Tuesday, August 02, 2011

Wouldn’t it be nice for the Dow Jones Industrial Average to act sane for a day or two? Wouldn’t it be nice for it to just open in the morning and not move more than ten or twelve points in either direction? Of course, that would require an actual ‘market’ where traders and investors decide the minute-to-minute valuation of stocks. Instead, the current indexes can routinely plummet and ascend hundreds of points in either direction seemingly for no reason at all. It’s like someone put a ferret in our shorts and shot him up with crystal meth. Who would do such a thing?

Monday, August 01, 2011

Very Long-term trend - The continuing strength in the indices is causing me to question whether we are in a secular bear market or two consecutive, cyclical bull/bear cycles. In any case, the very-long-term cycles are down and, if they make their lows when expected, there will be another steep and prolonged decline into 2014-16 (no change).

Long-term trend - In March 2009, the SPX began a move which evolved into a bull market. Cycles point to a continuation of this trend for several more weeks (no change).

Monday, August 01, 2011

Over the past seven trading sessions we have seen stocks plummet in price because of the debt issues in the United States. I think a lot of individuals including myself thought that a bill would have been passed last week and with a plan underway money would flow back into stocks for a relief bounce at minimum. Instead, nothing was passed and that lead to strong selling into Friday’s close.

Sunday, July 31, 2011

Tape action--market responsiveness to news, earnings and technical events--has been largely bullish as well. Psychology appears to be sufficiently negative to support a bottom as well. While doom and gloom are not at apocalyptic levels, there is a pervasive sense that after six months of grind and whipsaw, traders are tired and at a loss and are sitting on the sidelines waiting for the right cue. All in all, this is the stuff of which major bottoms are made. BullBear Traders are looking to build long positions as the market passes through a bottoming process soon, probably coinciding with the announcements of the downgrade of US sovereign debt and a DC debt deal. We are also keeping our eyes open to the possibility of a significant bearish market break.

Sunday, July 31, 2011

Equities declined throughout the week right from the gap down open on monday into the close on friday. In the end US equities experienced the worse weekly loss since the Primary wave II bottom in July 2010. The monthly economic reports were mostly negative, outpacing positive reports by 2:1. On the positive side: Case-Shiller, consumer confidence, and the WLEI all improved, while weekly jobless claims dropped.

Sunday, July 31, 2011

There is much to discuss, but let's start with the news that's on everyone's minds. We all know those two annoying words by now. Debt ceiling. Yes, the debt ceiling and its daily annoyance to everything that is the stock market. Slowly, but surely, it became part of our daily lives. In our minds we began to wonder about whether it would be taken care of by our leaders. Then the days moved on, and the stock market began to take on a larger role with respects to wondering whether things would get taken care of by our leaders. The closer we got to August second the more annoyed the market seemed to get with what was taking place. It began to send a strong message last Friday. Then all week the market fell.

Saturday, July 30, 2011

“The U.S. Federal Reserve gave out $16.1 trillion in emergency loans to U.S. and foreign financial institutions between Dec. 1, 2007 and July 21, 2010, according to figures produced by the government's first-ever audit of the central bank.

Last year, the gross domestic product of the entire U.S. economy was $14.5 trillion.

Friday, July 29, 2011

The deadline for some type of debt-ceiling deal is now only five calendar days away (three trading days). The odds of no agreement of any kind coming together remain relatively remote. The political stakes for all players involved, including both parties and the President, are too high.

Friday, July 29, 2011

I was watching Speaker of the House John Boehner speak today on Bloomberg TV (yes I have the TV on while I trade but the sound is off until I see something that is newsworthy). Speaker Boehner made the same old pitch about how the Republicans have out plans on the table and the Democrats have done nothing. I watched as his entourage climbed over each other to say something to the media and it hit me hard. This is July 28, 2011. In one year we will be in full reelection mode. How much money would one of these congressmen have to raise to get some prime time face time? I would guess it would be quite a bit.

Friday, July 29, 2011

Overnight the Asian markets were mostly lower. Europe opened lower but closed mixed. US index futures were relatively flat overnight, and at 8:30 weekly Jobless claims dipped below 400K: 398K vs 418K. The market opened slightly lower at SPX 1304, after closing at 1305 yesterday. After bouncing around in the first few minutes the market started to rally. At 10:00 Pending home sales were reported lower but still positive: +2.4% vs +8.2%. The rally continued until about noon when the SPX hit 1316, then it started to pullback. Around 1:00 the FED released the following: http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/bcreg/20110728a.htm. The pullback continued right into the close when the SPX hit 1299 and ended the day at 1301.

Thursday, July 28, 2011

It was an exciting trading session Wednesday to say the least… With all the uncertainty floating around it is causing the stock market to be more volatile than normal. It seems like every other day there is some big headline news causing either strong buying of stocks or strong selling to take place. It’s this type of price action which spooks the average investor causing them to panic out of positions at key support areas just before a continued move higher.

Thursday, July 28, 2011

After the market closed on July 27, we reviewed the latest news from Washington looking for information that can help us over the next six calendar days. Our current interpretation is that a deal will get done in some shape, form, or fashion.

A Bloomberg story noted that the credit markets are not overly concerned about the political banter in our nation’s capital:

Banks in the U.S. are scrutinizing credit-market movements as they look for distress ahead of next week’s deadline to raise the U.S. debt ceiling. So far, those metrics aren’t showing signs of panic.

Thursday, July 28, 2011

Dramatic title I realize but look at the charts below and ask yourself if this is purely coincidence or something more telling. Regulars to this site have read posts comparing the current market to that of late 2007. From equities to credit markets to volatility and more the similarities across asset classes has been rather striking.

Thursday, July 28, 2011

Each day that passes without a deal to prevent a U.S. debt default brings the United States closer to a financial calamity that would be more severe than the failure of Lehman Brothers in 2008.

Dueling speeches from U.S. President Barack Obama and Speaker of the House John Boehner, R-OH, Monday night did nothing to resolve the impasse between Republicans and Democrats over how to reduce budget deficits and raise the debt ceiling past the $14.3 trillion limit by Aug. 2.

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