Independents

Crunching The Numbers: Race 22 - Cheez-it 355 at Watkins Glen

Could this be the last race where a 'surprise' winner enters the Chase? Could Marcos Ambrose or A.J. Allmendinger, road course masters, win and earn a spot? Or will Tony Stewart finally make some noise this season? Who knows; but we will be going left and

Jeff Gordon and Dale Earnhardt Jr. continue to lay down impressive numbers; especially Earnhardt Jr. grabbing yet another victory this weekend at Pocono for the sweep. Drivers going in the wrong are Jimmie Johnson and Kyle Busch. Both drivers can lay down great finishes at Watkins Glen this weekend to improve their yearly numbers, but they have to avoid trouble. Kyle Larson, Greg Biffle, Kasey Kahne, and Austin Dillon are in a tight battle for making their way into the Chase based on points so all will want to see a great finish this weekend.

Cheez-It 355 at The GlenPredictions

This could be the last race where a “surprise” winner will find their way into the Chase, and that driver could very well be Marcos Ambrose or A.J. Allmendinger. Both drivers lay down phenomenal numbers on the road courses and will certainly be giving it their all to grab a victory and squeeze their way into the Chase. However, drivers like Kyle Busch, Carl Edwards, and Brad Keselowski are great at Watkins Glen as well and have nothing to lose, as they are already in the Chase, so they might go for broke and try to nab another victory. This could also be a great moment for Tony Stewart; or it will just be another mediocre race for him.

Power rankings are based off current yearly stats, track seasonal stats, track overall stats, track type stats, team average (year, track seasonal, and track overall), manufacturer rank, and (yearly) race completion percentage. Manufacturer and team power ranking are more used as a tie-breaker rather than actually incorporated into the equation.

Dark Horses: Jamie McMurray

Avoid: Brian Vickers

Team Statistics

Hendrick Motorsports has the most victories this season and the best average finish, but Joe Gibbs Racing and Team Penske are not letting them get too far out of their view. When it comes to Watkins Glen, A.J. Allmendinger powering the car for JTG Daugherty Racing has them on top of the board for best average finish, followed (by a distance by) Martin Truex Jr. powering the car for Furniture Row Racing. Stewart-Haas Racing has the best average finish for multi-car teams as well as having the most victories.

Manufacturer Statistics

Chevrolet maintains their position on top of the leader board after the victory from Dale Earnhardt Jr. at Pocono this past weekend. When it comes to Watkins Glen, Chevrolet does hold the most trophies, but Ford has the best average finish. With several great road course drivers driving Fords, it would not be crazy to see Ford grab another victory at The Glen this weekend.

Cheez-It 355 at The Glen (Watkins Glen): Key Statistics

Past Winners:

The average race winner has come from starting in the top 5 (4.7 average)

20% of the winners have come from starting on the pole (Tony Stewart – 2005, Kyle Busch - 2008)

80% of the winner have come from starting in the top 5

90% of the winners have come from starting in the top 10

Tony Stewart won in 2009 from starting P13, which is the furthest back a race winner has started

Winning drivers have lead an average of 41 laps (45.56% of the race)

Race Speed (mph):

Average: 89.727

Minimum: 76.718

Maximum: 99.417

95% Confidence Interval: (73.876, 105.579)

Ahhhhh – road course racing! For the second, and sadly, final time in 2014, the drivers will be making left and right hand turns. Road courses may not produce fast speeds, but they are entertaining to watch for sure. At The Glen over the past several races, there has been an increase in the average race speed, as well as being slightly above average; so we can look for a slightly than faster race this weekend.

Margin of Victory (seconds):

Average: 1.981

Minimum: 0.486

Maximum: 4.735

95% Confidence Interval: (-0.712, 4.674)

Only once has the race ended under caution at Watkins Glen, and that was back in 2011. Prior to that, the margin of victory was much higher than average, but the past 2 years have brought the average down as well as bringing the trending down slightly. While the trending is pointing towards a closer finish, it is still hovering around the average.

Lead Changes:

Average: 10.4

Minimum: 5

Maximum: 14

95% Confidence Interval: (4.65, 16.15)

Lead changes have been on the decline, meaning that once the leader is out there, they are out there for a while. Since the lead changes are only counted at the start/finish line, this does not mean there is not a lot passing going on all over during the entire course of the race. The lead changes may be on the downward slope, but the average is still a good place to be!

Cautions:

Average: 6.1

Minimum: 4

Maximum: 10

95% Confidence Interval: (2.05, 10.15)

The number of cautions is also on the decline at The Glen as of late, but the number is still hanging around the average.

Cautions Laps:

Average: 15

Minimum: 9

Maximum: 22

95% Confidence Interval: (6.156, 23.844)

Even though the number of cautions are going down, the number of caution laps is going up, but the trend is not going very far beyond the average. So assuming the average is holding for the cautions, it makes sense that the average is true for the caution laps as well.

First Caution:

Average: 19.8

Minimum: 6

Maximum: 49

95% Confidence Interval: (-7.603, 47.203)

Prior to the 2013 race, the first caution came close to lap 30, and that is where the trending is still going; it all depends on how aggressive drivers are willing to be at the start of the race.

Last Caution:

Average: 80.6

Minimum: 72

Maximum: 92

95% Confidence Interval: (65.421, 95.779)

Trending for the final caution is pretty flat at the average. Not much to say here besides look for about a 10 lap shootout to the end. It is also worthy to note that only twice has the race gone past the scheduled distance of 90 laps.

Drivers on the Lead Lap:

Average: 29.8

Minimum: 24

Maximum: 34

95% Confidence Interval: (23.214, 36.386)

Road courses are like super speedways and restrictor plate tracks in the sense that there is great opportunity for there to be a lot of cars on the lead lap at the end of the race. The trending of this at The Glen has been on a downward slide lately, but is still hovering around the average; so it is important for the drivers to avoid trouble, otherwise they will have a difficult time making up ground on the track and earning those valuable points.

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