Pakistan Prepares for Former Prime Ministers' Return

By CARLOTTA GALL

Published: August 25, 2007

Officials from the party of former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif announced Friday that he would be returning to Pakistan within weeks, but the government sent mixed signals on how it would respond to a Supreme Court ruling that threw open the coming parliamentary campaign to all political players.

Mr. Sharif's pending return led another opposition leader and former prime minister, Benazir Bhutto, to reschedule her own return ahead of his, according to one newspaper report.

Politicians and analysts argued that though the returning party leaders may have been tainted by lingering charges of corruption and mismanagement, the overwhelming desire in Pakistan was for democracy and a free choice in elections this fall.

Still, the attorney general, Malik Muhammad Qayyum, who represented the government before the Supreme Court, said that Mr. Sharif could face arrest if he returned. His original prison sentence, which was lifted when he agreed to leave the country in 2000, could be reimposed by the president, Mr. Qayyum said.

A firebrand cabinet minister, Sher Afgan Niazi, poured scorn on Thursday's court verdict allowing Mr. Sharif to re-enter the county, and warned on a television talk show that emergency rule, or even the more draconian martial law, could be imposed.

At the same time, Pakistan's president, Gen. Pervez Musharraf, said there was a need for dialogue to ensure a smooth period of preparation for elections. ''It is the need of the time that there is political stability, political reconciliation and a national consensus on issues confronting Pakistan,'' he said as he took questions from a select audience on the government-run Pakistan Television.

It is a line that some members of his cabinet and the ruling party have been pushing for several days as the only way to respond to the growing challenges to the general's rule. Their argument is that the president should sit down with the leaders of the main political parties -- which could be as few as five people -- and agree on a caretaker government to prepare for parliamentary elections.

General Musharraf's re-election could come later, they imply.

''It is the only way for him to avoid the obstacles from the Supreme Court, and turbulence on the streets,'' said one member of the cabinet, who spoke on condition of anonymity. He said the leadership had changed tack and had recognized in the last few days the need to negotiate a way forward.

The latest Supreme Court ruling has thrust the door open for elections, and at this stage free and fair elections are the best option for calming the public mood and stemming a drift toward extremism, politicians and analysts said.

''It is just a step forward,'' said Ahsan Iqbal, information secretary of Mr. Sharif's party. ''It is a long haul to free and fair elections.''

Mr. Iqbal and others argue that democratic parties, and democracy itself, have been suppressed in Pakistan under the past eight years of General Musharraf's military rule, and under previous military regimes as well. The democratic political parties, left in limbo, with their leaders absent and their supporters harassed or imprisoned, have missed out on nearly a decade of political evolution, the argument goes. Meanwhile, religious parties filled the political vacuum.

That sequence of events has meant that eight years on, the biggest political players challenging General Musharraf are the same as a decade ago: Ms. Bhutto and Mr. Sharif. Both will arrive home with plenty of old baggage, including lingering charges of corruption, cronyism and inefficiency. ''It's a pity the people of Pakistan could not find better leaders, but you could argue that they were never allowed to,'' said Talat Masood, a retired general and an outspoken political analyst.

Syed Kabir Ali Wasti, a senior legislator and vice president of the Pakistan Muslim League, which backs General Musharraf, said, ''If you cannot get elected under democratic norms, why should you continue?''

He expressed irritation that General Musharraf was always lauded as America's great ally, saying that rather it was the people and the armed forces of Pakistan who were the great allies of America. ''The people are with America, they are against terrorism,'' Mr. Wasti said. ''This nation is liberal, barring a very few.''

Ms. Bhutto and Mr. Sharif remain the most popular political leaders by far, and whether or not they are personally tainted, their parties are pragmatic, centrist groupings that are the West's most natural allies, said Samina Ahmed of the nonprofit International Crisis Group, in a recent report. Ms. Ahmed is a former research fellow at the Kennedy School of Government at Harvard.

General Masood said the participation of Mr. Sharif and Ms. Bhutto would draw voters away from the religious parties. ''It would be the best thing that could happen, for both of them to come back,'' he said. ''The political focus would be on them -- one from the center right, one slightly center left.''

Mr. Sharif could be expected to campaign on an anti-American, anti-Musharraf platform, and would draw those who would otherwise be attracted to the religious parties, but as one of the country's richest industrialists, he would lead a government that was pro-business and open to the United States, India and the global economy, General Masood said.

Mr. Iqbal, the associate of Mr. Sharif, said that the war on terror demands a political solution, and that only a return to democratic rule can make that possible. ''There has to be a competing alternate political platform,'' he said. ''You can only get that through the democratic process.''