King Yao: author of Weighing the Odds in Sports Betting and Weighing the Odds in Hold'em Poker

Saturday, August 19, 2006

Angle bettors need to know the starting base Part 2

A few posts ago, I wrote that angle bettors need to know the starting base in order to make a decision as to whether their angle is already incorporated into the line. Here is a good example in the first week of college football.

There is a new rule in college football that will reduce the number of plays from 10-15 per game. That's about 10% of plays. The rule basically allows the clock to keep ticking or to start ticking sooner than before in certain plays. With a clock that is more active, it means the games are a bit shortened and there should be less scoring. An angle bettor may see this new rule and decide to take the under in each game in the early part of the year, hoping that the bookmakers have not instilled this new rule into their lines. But what if they already did? If they did, then the bettor is simply betting a 50% wager into a line of -110...and losing EV on it.

For this particular angle, I did a little bit of legwork. Last year, the opening total in the first week of the college football season was around 53 points per game. This year, the average opening total (from Pinnacle) is about 48.5 right now. That's a 4.5 point difference in the total. That is a BIG difference. Vince Young and Reggie Bush going to the NFL is not the reason for this difference. What is likely the reason is that the linemakers have instilled the new rule into their lines. Maybe they went too far or maybe they didn't go far enough...but it is clear they have thought about it. The anggle bettor should stay away.