After reading about the droughts in two major agricultural countries, China
and Argentina, I decided to research the extent other food producing nations
were also experiencing droughts. This project ended up taking a lot longer
than I thought. 2009 looks to be a humanitarian disaster around much of the
world

To understand the depth of the food Catastrophe that faces the world this
year, consider the graphic below depicting countries by USD value of their
agricultural output, as of 2006.

Now, consider the same graphic with the countries experiencing droughts
highlighted.

The countries that make up two thirds of the worlds agricultural output
are experiencing drought conditions. Whether you watch a
video
of the drought in China, Australia, Africa, South America, or the US,
the scene will be the same: misery, ruined crop, and dying cattle.

China

The drought in Northern China, the worst in 50 years, is worsening, and summer
harvest is now threatened. The area of affected crops has expanded to 161
million mu (was 141 million last week), and 4.37 million people and 2.1 million
livestock are facing drinking water shortage. The scarcity of rain in some
parts of the north and central provinces is the worst in recorded
history.

The drought which started in November threatens over half the wheat crop
in eight provinces - Hebei, Shanxi, Anhui, Jiangsu, Henan, Shandong, Shaanxi
and Gansu.

HenanChina's largest crop producing province, Henan, has issued the highest-level
drought warning. Henan has received an average rainfall of 10.5 millimeters
since November 2008, almost 80 percent less than in the same period in the
previous years. The Henan drought, which began in November, is the most severe
since 1951.

AnhuiAnhui Province issued a red drought alert, with more than 60 percent
of the crops north of the Huaihe River plagued by a major drought.

ShanxiShanxi Province was put on orange drought alert on Jan. 21, with one
million people and 160,000 heads of livestock are facing water shortage.

JiangsuJiangsu province has already lost over one fifth of the wheat crops affected
by drought. Local agricultural departments are diverting water from nearby
rivers in an emergency effort to save the rest.

HebeiOver 100 million cubic meters of water has been channeled in from outside
the province to fight Hebeis drought.

Shaanxi1.34 million acres of crops across the bone-dry Shanxi province are affected
by the worsening drought.

ShandongSince last November, Shandong province has experienced 73 percent less
rain than the same period in previous years, with little rainfall forecast
for the future.

Relief efforts are under way. The Chinese government has allocated 86.7 billion
yuan (about $12.69 billion) to drought-hit areas. Authorities have also resorted
to cloud-seeding, and some areas received a sprinkling of rain after clouds
were hit with 2,392 rockets and 409 cannon shells loaded with chemicals.
However, there is a limit to what can be done in the face of such widespread
water shortage.

As I have previously written,
China
is facing hyperinflation, and this record drought will make things worse.
China produces 18% of the world's grain each year.

Australia

Australia has been experiencing an unrelenting drought since 2004, and 41
percent of Australia's agriculture continues to suffer from the worst drought
in 117 years of record-keeping. The drought has been so severe that rivers
stopped flowing, lakes turned toxic, and farmers abandoned their land in
frustration:

A) The Murray River stopped flowing at its terminal point, and its mouth
has closed up.
B) Australias lower lakes are evaporating, and they are now a meter
(3.2 feet) below sea level. If these lakes evaporate any further, the soil
and the mud system below the water is going to be exposed to the air. The
mud will then acidify, releasing sulfuric acid and a whole range of heavy
metals. After this occurs, those lower lake systems will essentially become
a toxic swamp which will never be able to be recovered. The Australian
government's only options to prevent this are to allow salt water in, creating
a dead sea, or to pray for rain.

For some reason, the debate over climate change is essentially over in
Australia.

The United States

CaliforniaCalifornia
is facing its worst drought in recorded history. The drought is predicted
to be the most severe in modern times, worse than those in 1977 and 1991.
Thousands of acres of row crops already have been fallowed, with more to
follow. The snowpack in the Northern Sierra, home to some of the state's
most important reservoirs, proved to be just 49 percent of average. Water
agencies throughout the state are scrambling to adopt conservation
mandates.

TexasThe
Texan drought is reaching historic proportion. Dry conditions near Austin
and San Antonio have been exceeded only once beforethe drought of 1917-18.
88 percent of Texas is experiencing abnormally dry conditions, and 18 percent
of the state is in either extreme or exceptional drought conditions. The
drought areas have been expanding almost every month. Conditions in Texas
are so bad cattle are keeling over in parched pastures and dying. Lack of
rainfall has left pastures barren, and cattle producers have resorted to
feeding animals hay. Irreversible damage has been done to winter wheat crops
in Texas. Both short and long-term forecasts don't call for much rain at
all, which means the Texas drought is set to get worse.

Augusta Region (Georgia, South Carolina, North Carolina)
The Augusta region has been suffering from a worsening two year drought.
Augustas rainfall deficit is already approaching 2 inches so far in
2009, with January being the driest since 1989.

FloridaFlorida has been hard hit by winter drought, damaging crops, and half
of state is in some level of a drought.

La NiÃ±a likely to make matters worseEnough water a couple of degrees cooler than normal has accumulated in
the eastern part of the Pacific to create a La NiÃ±a, a weather
pattern expected to linger until at least the spring. La NiÃ±a
generally means dry weather for Southern states, which is exactly what the
US doesnt need right now.

Brazil
Brazil has cut its outlook for the crops and will do so again after assessing
damage to plants from desiccation in drought-stricken regions. Brazil is
the world's second-biggest exporter of soybeans and third-largest for corn.

ParaguaySevere drought affecting Paraguay's economy has pushed the government
to declare agricultural emergency. Crops that have direct impact on cattle
food are ruined, and the soy plantations have been almost totally lost in
some areas.

UruguayUruguay declared an "agriculture emergency" last month, due to the worst
drought in decades which is threatening crops, livestock and the provision
of fresh produce.
The a worsening drought is pushing up food and beverage costs causing Uruguay's
consumer prices to rise at the fastest annual pace in more than four years
in January.

BoliviaThere hasnt been a drop of rain in Bolivia in nearly a year. Cattle
dying, crops ruined, etc

ChileThe severe drought affecting Chile has caused an agricultural emergency
in 50 rural districts, and large sectors of the economy are concerned about
possible electricity rationing in March. The countries woes stem from the
"La NiÃ±a" climate phenomenon which has over half of Chile dangling
by a thread: persistently cold water in the Pacific ocean along with high
atmospheric pressure are preventing rain-bearing fronts from entering central
and southern areas of the country. As a result, the water levels at hydroelectric
dams and other reservoirs are at all-time lows.

Horn of Africa

Africa
faces food shortages and famine. Food production across the Horn of Africa
has suffered because of the lack of rainfall. Also, half the agricultural
soil has lost nutrients necessary to grow plant, and the declining soil fertility
across Africa is exacerbating drought related crop losses.

KenyaKenya is the worst hit nation in the region, having been without rainfall
for 18 months. Kenya needs to import food to bridge a shortfall and keep
10 million of its people from starvation. Kenyas drought suffering
neighbors will be of little help.

TanzaniaA poor harvest due to drought has prompted Tanzania to stop issuing food
export permits. Tanzania has also intensified security at the border posts
to monitor and prevent the export of food. There are 240,000 people in need
of immediate relief food in Tanzania.

BurundiCrops in the north of Burundi have withered, leaving the tiny East African
country facing a severe food shortage

UgandaSevere drought in northeastern Uganda's Karamoja region has the left
the country on the brink of a humanitarian catastrophe. The dry conditions
and acute food shortages, which have left Karamoja near starvation, are unlikely
to improve before October when the next harvest is due.

South AfricaSouth Africa faces a potential crop shortage after wheat farmers in the
eastern part of the Free State grain belt said they were likely to produce
their lowest crop in 30 years this year. South Africans are "extremely angry"
that food prices continue to rise.

The
Middle East and Central Asia are suffering from the worst droughts in recent
history, and food grain production has dropped to some of the lowest
levels in decades. Total wheat production in the wider drought-affected region
is currently estimated to have declined by at least 22 percent in 2009. Owing
to the drought's severity and region-wide scope, irrigation supplies from
reservoirs, rivers, and groundwater have been critically reduced. Major
reservoirs in Turkey, Iran, Iraq, and Syria are all at low levels requiring
restrictions on usage. Given the severity of crop losses in the region, a
major shortage of planting seed for the 2010 crop is expected.

IraqIn Iraq during the winter grain growing period, there was essentially
no measurable rainfall in many regions, and large swaths of rain-fed fields
across northern Iraq simply went unplanted. These primarily rain-fed regions
in northern Iraq are described as an agricultural disaster area this year,
with wheat production falling 80-98 percent from normal levels. The USDA
estimates total wheat production in Iraq in 2009 at 1.3 million tons, down
45 percent from last year.

SyriaSyria is experienced its worst drought in the past 18 years, and the
USDA estimates total wheat production in Syria in 2009 at 2.0 million tons,
down 50 percent from last year. Last summer, the taps ran dry in many
neighborhoods of Damascus and residents of the capital city were forced to
buy water on the black market. The severe lack of rain this winter has
exacerbated the problem.

AfghanistanLack of rainfall has led Afghanistan to the worst drought conditions
in the past 10 years. The USDA estimates 2008/09 wheat production in Afghanistan
at 1.5 million tons, down 2.3 million or 60 percent from last year. Afghanistan
normally produces 3.5-4.0 million tons of wheat annually.

JordanJordan's persistent drought has grown worse, with almost no rain falling
on the kingdom this year. The Jordanian government has stopped pumping water
to farms to preserve the water for drinking purposes.

A lack of credit for farmers curbed their ability to buy seeds and fertilizers
in 2008/2009 and will limit production around the world. The effects of droughts
worldwide will also be amplified by the smaller amount of seeds and fertilizers
used to grow crops.

Low commodity prices will worsen food shortage

The low prices at the end of 2008 discouraged the planting of new crops in
2009. In Kansas for example, farmers seeded nine million acres, the smallest
planting for half a century. Wheat plantings this year are down about 4 million
acres across the US and about 1.1 million acres in Canada. So even discounting
drought related losses, the US, Canada, and other food producing nations
are facing lower agricultural output in 2009.

Europe will not make up for the food shortfall

Europe, the only big agricultural region relatively unaffected by drought,
is set for a big drop in food production. Due to the combination of a late
plantings, poorer soil conditions, reduced inputs, and light rainfall,
Europes agricultural output is likely to fall by 10 to 15 percent.

Stocks of foodstuff are dangerously low

Low stocks of foodstuff make the worlds falling agriculture output
particularly worrisome. The combined averaged of the ending stock levels
of the major trading countries of Australia, Canada, United States, and the
European Union have been declining steadily in the last few years:

The world is heading for a drop in agricultural production of 20 to 40 percent,
depending on the severity and length of the current global droughts. Food
producing nations are imposing food export restrictions. Food prices will
soar, and, in poor countries with food deficits, millions will starve.

The deflation debate should end now

The droughts plaguing the worlds biggest agricultural regions should
end the debate about deflation in 2009. The demand for agricultural commodities
is relatively immune to developments in the business cycles (at least compared
to that of energy or base metals), and, with a 20 to 40 percent decline in
world production,
already
rising food prices are headed significantly higher.

In fact, agricultural commodities NEED to head higher and soon, to prevent
even greater food shortages and famine. The price of wheat, corn, soybeans,
etc must rise to a level which encourages the planting of every available
acre with the best possible fertilizers. Otherwise, if food prices stay at
their current levels, production will continue to fall, sentencing millions
more to starvation.

Competitive currency appreciation

Some observers are anticipating competitive currency devaluations
in addition to deflation for 2009 (nations devalue their currencies to help
their export sector). The coming global food shortage makes this highly unlikely.
Depreciating their currency in the current environment will produce the unwanted
consequence of boosting exportsof food. Even with export restrictions
like those in China, currency depreciation would cause the outflow of significant
quantities of grain via the black market.

Instead of competitive currency devaluations, spiking food prices
will likely cause competitive currency appreciation in 2009.
Foreign
exchange reserves exist for just this type of emergency. Central banks
around the world will lower domestic food prices by either directly selling
off their reserves to appreciate their currencies or by using them to purchase
grain on the world market.

Appreciating a currency is the fastest way to control food inflation. A more
valuable currency allows a nation to monopolize more global resources (ie:
the overvalued dollar allows the US to consume 25% of the world's oil despite
having only 4% of the world's population). If China were to selloff its US
reserves, its enormous population would start sucking up the world's food
supply like the US has been doing with oil.

On the flip side, when a nation appreciates its currency and starts consuming
more of the worlds resources, it leaves less for everyone else. So
when china appreciates the yuan, food shortages worldwide will increase and
prices everywhere else will jump upwards. As there is nothing that breeds
social unrest like soaring food prices, nations around the world, from Russia,
to the EU, to Saudi Arabia, to India, will sell off their foreign reserves
to appreciate their currencies and reduce the cost of food imports. In response
to this, China will sell even more of its reserves and so on. That is competitive
currency appreciation.

When faced with competitive currency appreciation, you do NOT want to be
the worlds reserve currency. The dollar is likely to do very poorly
as central banks liquidate trillions in US holdings to buy food and appreciate
their currencies.

Fantastic article! There are reports about this all over the web and you've
put it all into one very well researched paper!

The droughts hitting world-wide, coupled with the tightening credit markets,
will lead to lower supplies of food globally, and this will happen a lot
faster than most anticipate. Add the legal attacks of Monsanto et. al. against
farmers who are not licensing their seeds, and you've got a perfect storm.

It's interesting that the market prices for commodities haven't already exploded
based on this information. Though we have seen a rise in prices in the last
two months, I thought we'd see some serious upward movement by now. I guess
investors are still on the sidelines trying to figure out what moves to make
next.

Eventually, we are going to see food prices go through the roof. Forecasters
like Gerald Celente and Peter Schiff have both stated that food shortages,
leading to food lines and riots (Celente) are things we can expect in the
near future -- at the latest by 2012. Hopefully it won't get this bad!

Like many of your posts, quite interesting, but they would be greatly aided
if you substantiated your sources. The links to articles are helpful for
context, but the data underlying your stories should also be provided/linked.

For example, the maps at the top of this post are compelling, but no source
is provided. Where did you get the data from to produce the maps?

SystemicPlural said... Can you post similar graphics for drought in other years so we can compare
how bad this year is to others. Thanks

That would be very difficult, and I am not sure it is necessary either.

China, Argentinia, Uruguay, California, Texas, Australia, the horn of Africa,
and the middle east are experiencing their worst drought conditions in decades.
Together, these regions make up about half the world's agricultural output.
I doubt any period in the last 50 years has seen severe global droughts on
the scale we are seing today.

Saw your article on marketoracle, which led me here.
Suggest you also research Ug99 wheat rust. Surprised you missed it, since
you did include Uganda, where it originated.
An early article was in New Scientist:
http://tinyurl.com/cvcw2r
Ug99 has spread steadily eastwards and has turned up in Iran. This has the
additional complication that, by some process I don't understand, the rust
is capable of mutating due to the presence of the barberry plant, thereby
rendering any currently-being-developed resistant wheat strains obsolete,
for want of a better word.
Here's a link:
http://tinyurl.com/yr7muw
So far, I have seen no reports of it having been detected in Pakistan, but
the trajectory is Pakistan, India, China, USA. The spores are carried by
the winds.

Should have emphasised just how disastrous Ug99 could be. Drought AND
pestilence.
~
Also, being a global warming sceptic, it is worth considering that if we
enter a cooling period (and the sun-spot activity is not encouraging), moisture
will become locked up in snow and ice and, presumably, there will be less
evaporation from colder waters.
~
Happy days!

1)Biofuels - they serve one useful purpose and that is to put a floor in
the market in years of excess production, such that farmers can afford /
have confidence to replant. Very much a US only situation, but US ag production
is huge.
In years of very tight supply / reserve stocks (07 harvest), biofuels are
one of the clutches that give, ie stand down the biofuel plant - divert corn
to its proper usage. This happened 07-08 by corn rising in price so much,
it simply became more profitable for Verasun et al to sell on their forward
bought (cheap) crop.

1a) The flip side. VeraSun (and others) now bust because it forward bought
08-09 corn at top of market, and crude price fell away. They cannot make
ethanol pay without subsidy. Whoops.

2) Mac, as an agricultural science biochemist by degree I too an skeptical
about what big M brings to the food production party. But they are not, overall,
hampering food production short term.
Long term there will be environmental costs, mostly indirectly of the technology
itself. ie facilitates ag business monocropping eg soya in Brazil, with impacts
on local small farmers, etc etc.
In fact the biggest problem I have with GM is that it directs attention from
real and potential technological gains to be made in conventional
agriculture.
So while I agree Monsanto in particular appear to be a law onto themselves,
they are not a significant part of this problem.

3) Ironically one of the main reasons why US farmers fall plantings are so
low, is that due to bad weather the 08 harvest was late, and fields were
left in a poor physical state. Also note the only key US crop that is autumn
planted is winter wheat. The futures price for wheat did not encourage planting
- true. But this is because europe/canada had a massive wheat harvest, and
there will be some rebuilding of reserve stocks. For USA, its really all
about corn and soya.
Be wary, very wary, if soya futures go high and corn low. Too much soya may
be planted, or rather too little corn. Corn is so important because, by some
margin, it produces the most 'food'/acre in US ag (of the commodity
crops).

4) Here in UK we are having one of the worst autumn/winter growing seasons
in memory. Too cold and wet, ironically again. But Europe in general looks
good.
In Europe, unlike USA/Canada, winter sown oilseed and wheat are the big
output/money crops.
That said parts of Ukraine / Romania / Bulgaria are experiencing very mild
weather (10-15C), and if winter returns with a vengance (very possible) a
lot of 'soft' crops will be shocked to near death.

5)Meat consumption. Has to fall. Period.
Then there will be be more than enough food ... at least until oil (nitrogen
fertiliser) and phosphate (fertiliser, mined from very limited resourses)
become an issue.

6)Concerning soil degredation, nutrient run-off and pollution etc. The best
practice farmers in all regions are making big headway here. No-till seeding,
better understanding of soil through lab analysis, etc etc.
But can the messages be spread quickly enough? When 'energy' becomes fully
and fairly valued, a lot of the right solutions will become obvious even
to the most trad / conservative growers.

7) Concerning the effects of the credit crunch on agriculture. From Hungary
to Siberia, but especially Ukraine (complete financial mess, near anarchy),
the CC is going to have a definite impact this year. And it could be a huge
impact - still unfolding.
S America i dont know except that their farmers are genarally considered
the lowest cost, financially toughest, producers in the world ( look how
B Aires taxes Argintinian growers).
N America / EEC - the CC should be little problem - about the only business
class in UK that banks are treating normally - i can borrow what i want at
interest rates that would make a successful non-farming businessman green
with envy. (Its the value of the underlying asset, land, not the return on
capital invested that matters today)

7) All that said, the cost of phosphate and potassium fertilisers is a real
cause for concern. Nitrogen prices have fallen with gas / oil (belatedly)

As a soil consultant and author in the the field of real sustainable
agriculture I find I must disagree with you on a couple of points.

1. What today is called no-till farming, though it reduces fuel usage and
erosion, is entirely dependent on expensive and toxic herbicides. No way
is it any sort of long-term solution; mostly it's a short-term profit maximizer
for the herbicide manufacturers. Serious herbicide pollution of groundwater
in agricultural areas has been demonstrated since the 1980s and isn't getting
any better.

2. With above 90% of the US and Brazilian soybean crops being GMO, and similar
numbers for maize, how can you truthfully say that Monsanto is not a big
player or a threat? These GMO crops have been bred for one primary purpose:
to be herbicide resistant, so large amounts of patented herbicides can be
applied without killing the crop. If the herbicides or the patented seeds
became too expensive or unavailable, how could the remaining 10% or so of
non-GMO farmers provide enough seed to make up the deficit? (and I'm leaving
out the scientific studies showing serious health problems from consuming
GMO crops).

Perhaps you are ignorant of all of this; more likely you are in denial. Soil
mineral chemistry, biology, and real soil science in harmony with Nature
hold the long term answers; toxic rescue chemistry and frankenfoods created
to maximize profits for multinational corporations are not part of the solution.
Continuing to mine the world's agricultural soils for short-term profits
will bring what it has brought throughout history. Go out and ask the earthworms
on your farm what they think of your farming practices, if you can find any
alive.

Pure, short-sighted foolishness is what I'm hearing, and I'm not impressed
with how cheaply you can borrow money to buy more herbicides, harsh chemical
fertilizers, and GMO seeds in a bid to further deplete the fertility of the
soil.

I live near Austin, Texas, in the heart of the drought-stricken region. Yes,
it's been dry.

But I can assure you, there are no cattle around here keeling over for lack
of water. I can also assure you, if Central Texas produced no food at all,
it wouldn't affect global supplies much at all: very little agriculture around
here, except cattle raising. And cattle are watered by wells. That's because
Texas, historically, has no standing water (there is only one natural lake
in the state, and that's on the border with Louisiana). The Texas countryside
is peppered with wind-driven pumps to bring water up from the aquifers.

Around here, it may be dry, but the picture is not nearly as dire as your
article portrays.

It's a lot of information and you must spent a lot of time putting all those
together. Thank you.

I just want to point out a few things.

1) Your inventory data is actually inaccurate.

According to bloomberg, world's food inventory at the end of 08 is moderately
higher than start of 08.

also, China has 1 year worth of inventory at the moment.

2) much food supply was taken to produce biofuel, if crude continues to be
at the current price, those supply will be added to food consumption.

3) most your information isn't what's going to happen, but more on a factual
basis, hence, it is completely taken into account by the mkt.

reasons that would cause food prices to go up are 1) oil trend up, 2) drought
has so bad, that it will impact harvest for later 2009 3) credit situation
gets worse and companies on the supply side go bust, however, u'd actually
see a drop in price before a rise in this case.

I think food will be 70% linked to oil, if oil constant, there isn't much
upside on food plays, unless there is more catastrophies(i hope not).

Anonymous said...if Central Texas produced no food at all, it wouldn't affect global supplies
much at all: very little agriculture around here, except cattle
raising.

Texas produces 5.4% of the US's agricultural output, and California produces
14.8%. Both states together produce more than 20% of US's food output, which
means that the record droughts in both areas is affecting a significant portion
of US output. Don't forget, other areas of the states are experiencing severe
and record drought.

Also you are right that NORMALLY, a drop in texas food production wouldn't
affect global supplies. However, with record droughts happening in other
major agricultural countries like China, Australia, Argentina, etc, the Texas
drought now has a much more significant impact.

I live near Austin, Texas, in the heart of the drought-stricken region.
Yes, it's been dry.
...
Around here, it may be dry, but the picture is not nearly as dire as your
article portrays.

It doesn't sound like you are a farmer, because what I am reading about
conditions in Texas shows that things are, in fact, dire:

February Crop Comments
2/4 - Central Texas Hill Country: 24 degrees this morning and no frost
 that is DRY! Wheat is toast for the most part. CRC will be a life
saver. Some compare this drought to the 50s or 1984. Some cattlemen
have run out of water, and many have culled deep already to make what grass
is left last. The bright side is that it did rain after those droughts. If
it does rain there will be lots of feed and sorghum planted on failed wheat
acres this spring.

2/3 - Lubbock County, Texas: Have I gone back in time? This feels
so much like 1983. Every crop that we can plant in my area is in the tank.
Milo isn't worth the fuel to deliver it. There isn't a soul in the world
that wants our cotton. And for peanuts everyone in America stays 10 feet
away from the peanut butter as they shop the stores. If I were a bear I would
just hibernate. Might just plant sunflowers. At least they would be pretty
to look at. Best of luck to all my fellow farmers out there, 2010 just around
the corner. To the young farme rs out there, yes it will get better. 1986
came along and the sun came out again.

Feed is in short supply, making it difficult for producers in the region
to provide proper sustenance.

Grasses that usually thrive in the winter months are not growing as abundantly
this year due to the drought, according to Austin County AgriLife Extension
Agent Philip Shackelford. As such, livestock producers must resort to using
hay or other supplements as feed.

If the supplements arent high in protein, then you have to supplement
further, he said.

But because the drought has lasted for a year, some producers began using
their winter reserve of hay during the summer and early autumn months, according
to Colorado County AgriLife Extension Agent Dale Rankin.

Many producers have been feeding hay for a pretty significant while
now, he said. Hay supplies are becoming pretty short.

Nice website - i am an Albrecht (via Neil Kinsey) fan. BTW Agricola talks
a lot of sense!
I am a balanced soil, conventional farmer. Ammonium sulphate, potassium &
magnesium sulphates pretty much all i use now (boron +S). Phosphate is unlocked
from apatite on my very high free calcium clay soil by point injection of
ammonium sulphate solution ( soil pH 7.4-8.4, CEC of 17 after discounting
free lime).

Yes i know what worms are.
You would be amazed how they thrive once you stop destroying soil structure
with tillage, and leave residue on the surface to feed then year round.
I grow worms that would eat you for breakfast. However i have yet to work
out how to talk to them.
(Obviously a skill restricted to High Priests of the Organic Church)

re GMOs.
In Europe (EEC) we don't have then yet. They will never happen on my farm.
I could write you a book why and have vigouously 'scientifically' trashed
them on UK farming websites in the past, but you would write much the same
book.
As far as Eric's MS blog is concerned, it is enough to say Monsanto, Syngenta
et al are not stocks to own to 'be indirectly exposed to agriculture'.

I would advocate using said capital instead to buy an acre of decent soil,
with a view to becoming a serious veg garden hobbyist.

Re ag chemicals. Some are more problematic than others. In the EEC the worst
are long gone. Another tranch is about to go, including most of the triazole
fungicides. Rightly or wrongly, this will hit output to some extent.

NB You should be impressed with my cheap credit line. How the bloody hell
can i afford your wonderous potions without it? Maybe you do discount for
600 acres.
But maybe i don't need them.
N use/ acre is going down, output is going up. (Is 4.8t/acre wheat from 180
lb/ac ammonium N any good?)
Chemical use is reducing. No PGR, and little fungicide. I do use a lot of
systemic herbicide, yes. But expect hand weeding to return to ag within 5
years.

BTW Agricole would be fascinated by the work of Prof Sommer, university of
Berlin (CULTAN).
(Explains how nitrate, from whatever source including compost, is the devils
nitrogen - unrestricted access to plant, soft weak stem and leaf, disease
and lodging the result. Ammonium, placed in depots in the soil however,...plus
of course 95% of the soil can get on with natural N creation via
azotobacter.)

I would suggest you read it too, but not sure you could read it clearly from
the great height you sit.
I have not seen such a horse in a while.

According to bloomberg, world's food inventory at the end of 08 is moderately
higher than start of 08.

Actually, my inventory numbers aren't inacurate:

foodstuff inventory dataAnother indicator of incentives to produce is stock levels. The ending
stock levels of the major trading countries of Australia, Canada, United
States, and the European Union combined averaged 47.4 million tons from 2001/02
 2004/05, dropped to 37.6 million tons in 2006/07 and 27.4 million
in 2007/08, as estimated by USDA. Their ending stocks for 2008/09 are
forecast up at 45.7 million tons. This number reflects the current
higher output for wheat.

I didn't include the forecast 45.7 million tons because I believe the USDA's
numbers are too optimistic about 2008/09 winter wheat yield given the worldwide
droughts.

2) much of the food supply was taken to produce biofuel, if crude continues
to be at the current price, those supply will be added to food
consumption.

Wrong. Mush of the US food supply was taken to produce biofuel. Out
of the overall world food production, only a small amount was used to produce
biofuel. China, who produces 18% of the world grain, didn't use any for biofuel.
So today's worldwide droughts are going to have a much bigger impact than
the falling use of food as biofuel.

3) most your information isn't what's going to happen, but more on a factual
basis, hence, it is completely taken into account by the mkt.

Not really, USDA production estimates, on which current market are based,
are way too optimistic. There is going to be a steady stream of downward
revisions of those estimates in coming weeks due to droughts and lower
production.

Glad you replied. I was hoping that would draw you out, and for the most
part I like your answers.

Yes, ostensibly the EU has been a hard sell for the GMO crops. What I've
been reading lately is that your all-wise government there in Merry England
is now planning on GMO trials at secret locations on military bases. You
will not escape the cross pollination from GMO crops any more than the farmers
in the US have.

You didn't address my main objection, which was that above 90% of the US
and Brazilian soybean crop is GMO and pretty close to that for maize; that
makes Monsanto and Syngenta quite significant, IMO. Nor did you address the
groundwater contamination from herbicides. From what I've been able to gather,
it's not so much the herbicides, though the atrazine is bad, what's hardest
on soil life is the modified tallow that's used as a carrier, but perhaps
that's a bit off topic for an economics thread. I have little use for any
sort of synthetic systemic "icides" myself.

You misread me if you think I am any sort of organic purist. Most of my
consulting clients are certified organic growers, and many of the home gardeners
I work with need to be reassured that the amendments we sell and recommend
for their gardens are approved. Simply the niche one is forced to work in
if one chooses to be in alternative ag in the USA.

I can assure you I hold no one's cow sacred. And as far as I know I'm not
selling any wondrous potions. If you are referring to the trace mineral mix
or the complete fertilizer I sell in small quantities to gardeners, all
ingredients are listed and explained.

As to Nitrogen, I don't use it much. The recommendations I write almost never
call for any at all, except as a mid-season side dressing for crops that
respond well to that. I have three to work up later tonight and none will
have N in the Rx, nor do I list any nitrate fertilizers for sale. My emphasis
is strongly on phosphate and sulfates; high N interferes with both. I do
think there is a case to be made for Chilean nitrate in small quantities,
especially in cold soils; it's also a great source of Boron and Iodine. And
not approved for USDA Organic use.

Nitrogen and Potassium fertilization are what has made our food supply so
poor worldwide. I consider real agriculture a fine art, and those two might
be the equivalent of printed reproductions for the uneducated, with a lot
of unfortunate health consequences.

As far as discounts for 600 acres, I have good connections in much of the
world for soil amendments. I usually put those who need large amounts in
direct contact with the mine, with a small brokerage fee understood. If you
know anyone interested in orders of 40,000 tons and up of premium New Mexico
humates, we can probably set it up this week.

With regard to Texas' food output, most of it comes from the Rio Grande Valley
and the Coastal Plain, where there was an abundance of rain in 2008, and
the Panhandle, which is irrigated. The drought area is centered over my house
in Central Texas. Not much grows around here except mountain cedar and scorpions.
I drive thru the countryside a couple of times a month. The cattle are OK.
The ranchers are not, of course; they need to pay more for feed since the
pastures are dry. I wonder how much of the angst in the media is aimed at
generating a gov't handout since the economics are so poor? You are correct
that they will thin inventory, reducing meat supplies --- but won't that
free up more grain for humans?

You forgot to mention, or did I miss it, that in many drought areas there
is vigorous chemtrail spraying. Much of it off the airline routes and
criss-crossing the skies. The chemtrails have been observed to fall on to
rainbearing cumulus which then rapidly dissipate into unnatural looking wispy
segmnts. The chemtrailing especially in Oz has been observed to be vigorously
carried out whenever rainbearing cumulus approached the SE coast- line. Heavy
chemtrailing has recently been reported in Mexico, Croatia and also worldwide.
Dunno about China or Russia. So now you see how easy it is to raise food
prices. And consider that the banksters eventually take over the land that
the farmers can no longer pay for.

Should the chemtrails theory be taken seriously? It might help if one of
its proponents could spell out in sufficient detail how an international
chemtrails conspiracy could be motivated, originated, managed, funded,
and kept entirely secret for years.
It might help if its proponents laid out some clear evidence of how the process
(supposedly?) works, rather than just repeat assertions along with pictures
of skies which prove absolutely nothing conspiracy-wise.

While the situation in most of the world's traditional grain baskets is
disturbing, I should point out that this is not the case everywhere - in
particular, Russia, Europe and Canada are not affected by drought.

As we know Canada, France and Russia are major grain exporters. I don't know
about the former two, but in the past year grain production in Russia increased
from 86mn tons to 113mn tons which means it will vastly increase the amount
of grain it exports. A similarly big harvest is projected for 2009.

Finally, I should point out that (and I do agree that global food security
is a major medium and long term problem) even in the world case scenario
the world is still several years from regionalized famines. Apart from world
food reserves there's also the reserves locked up in livestock, in both meat
and in the grain that they consume themselves.

Robin Clarke, it's really up to you to do the homework. There is plenty of
info on chemtrails out there besides photos and theories.

What might be a better question is just what ARE all of those planes doing
up there criss-crossing the skies and laying down even blankets of something
or other? Someone is up to something, as jet fuel and air crews don't come
free, yet we don't deserve an explanation even if it's a lie?

I live in the southern Caribbean off the coast of Venezuela and I've seen
the sky blanketed with chemtrails here occasionally; evenly spaced bands
crossing at 90* angles. Venezuela doesn't even have an air force nor does
any other country near here. Just what IS going on?

Don't expect that Clarke would ever research anything on his own. After all
we've always seen complete whiteouts from plane trails, huh? The reason he's
probably looking for evidence is because he's flying one of the planes and
knows ordinary folk could never get full disclosure on their black ops.
So....crew member or just another sheeple. Take your pick.

The assertion that Australia is in drought is false. Australia received more
than enough rain - given that much of Queensland is in flood. What Australia
lacks, as a result of decades of government inaction is the infrastructure
to catch, store and distribute the water to where it is needed.

Sublime Oblivion said... While the situation in most of the world's traditional grain baskets is
disturbing, I should point out that this is not the case everywhere - in
particular, Russia, Europe and Canada are not affected by drought.

True, Russia, Europe and Canada are not affected by drought. However, they
are being affected by low grain prices and lack of credit. The most optimistic
forecasts call for a decline of 2 to 3 percent in food production in those
areas, and pessimistic forecasts call for a decline of 10 to 15 percent.
So even in areas unaffected by drought, smaller harvests are expected in
2009.

Food production is going to fall even in those areas unaffected by
drought.

As we know Canada, France and Russia are major grain exporters. I don't
know about the former two, but in the past year grain production in Russia
increased from 86mn tons to 113mn tons which means it will vastly increase
the amount of grain it exports.

The reason 2008 had such a good harvest is because grain prices were soaring
during the first half of the year. Farmers planted the best seed on the most
land possible and used the best fertilizer. 2009 is the exact opposite. Farmers
are planting less using the cheapest seeds and little if any fertilizer.

A similarly big harvest is projected for 2009.

Which is a problem. These forecasts are COMPLETELY delusional. You will see
estimates revised down again and again in 2009.

Finally, I should point out that (and I do agree that global food security
is a major medium and long term problem) even in the world case scenario
the world is still several years from regionalized famines.

Not necessarily. If droughts continue around the world and China's summer
crops are affected, food insecurity will be a 2009 problem.

Apart from world food reserves there's also the reserves locked up in
livestock, in both meat and in the grain that they consume
themselves.

Yes, but "unlocking" these livestock reserves will send meat prices into
the stratosphere. Do you think Americans are ready to stop eating hamburgers
and hotdogs?

-----

Anonymous said... Hey
Where's New Zealand?
Why didn't we make the map????

Farmers around the world should be reducing production so that it more closely
matches consumption. If they do not, they will loss their grandfathers land
and massive starvation will then occur with the land in the new consumer
unfriendly hands. Farmers can only feed the world if they are profitable.
Food price rises caused by shifting land control to corporations hurts everyone,
even their own employees. When it is too late, it is too late.

I JUST WONDER IF TIS GLOBAL DROUGHT IS A DESIGNED EFFECT DUE TO THE MASS
CHEMICAL SPRAYING OF OUR ATMOSPHERE. I LIVE IN BYRON BAY.AUS. THERE IS OFTEN
HEAVY SPRAYING IN THE WESTERN SKYS WHEN THE HIGHER ALTITUDE WINDS ARE BLOWING
IT OUT TO SEA.MMM ANY THOUGHTS ON THIS ?

Sorry, wrong. Omega is a hydroponic system, very high tech, special nutrients
etc. Nothing like that is going to feed your family. Forget it.

It's fine if all you want is to grow salads and pot.

Here is reality: Those of us who eat reasonably well are used to getting
around 2,000 kcalories a day. You could not eat enough hydroponic vegetables
to equal 1000 calories, forget 2000. Think you could eat 20 to 30 pounds
of fresh vegies a day? Would you want to? And you can't live on vegetables
anyway, especially not in a temperate climate.

With excellent soil and intensive gardening, one could perhaps feed a family
of four on 1/2 acre, which is about 20,000 sq ft or 2,000 sq meters. Over
half of that would need to be devoted to grains and legumes (beans, peas,
lentils). That does not include area to grow grain to feed chickens or pigs.
If you want beef or milk, you will need another couple of acres of pasture,
minimum.

Forget these silly things like hydroponics and aeroponics, and forget about
trying to feed anyone a complete diet from anything like that; it is NOT
going to happen. Food grows in the soil, the Earth, with sunshine as its
energy source.

I have not studied the drought issue, it is an interesting topic - you may
or may not be correct regarding it and possible food shortages. I have no
way of knowing from reading your article.

However, what you consider "sources" appear to be primarily second?, third?
hand news articles, or worse - other blogs, all of which are notoriously
inaccurate in general. From a scientific standpoint your sources may essentially
be like the old game of telegraph - where a story is repeated through a line
people and by the end is totally unintelligible from the cumulative error
effects. If you have time to write the article, you should have time list
your the original sources of the data supporting your suppositions. Frankly,
there is way too much unsupported "information" floating around in a world
where the vast majority of the people are are clueless regarding critical
thinking.

SACRAMENTO, Calif.  Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger declared a state of
emergency Friday because of three years of below-average rain and snowfall
in California, a step that urges urban water agencies to reduce water use
by 20 percent.

"This drought is having a devastating impact on our people, our communities,
our economy and our environment, making today's action absolutely necessary,"
the Republican governor said in his statement.

Mandatory rationing is an option if the declaration and other measures are
insufficient.

The drought has forced farmers to fallow their fields, put thousands of
agricultural workers out of work and led to conservation measures in cities
throughout the state, which is the nation's top agricultural producer.

Agriculture losses could reach $2.8 billion this year and cost 95,000 jobs,
said Lester Snow, the state water director.

I work in the ag industry in the US. I can tell you from within the industry
that much of what you read here is nothing more than fearmongering. Will
there be challenges? Sure...there always have been and there always will
be but that is the nature of farming.

Buy water plants/ producers.
Short livestock (uses to much
feed, water) ex. fishing.
Short lawn care.
California must start
using 'grey' water (dishwater
used to water gardens),
filtering sewerage to reuse it like VT.

I certainly know that global agriculture is in terrible straits; but to produce
a detailed article without citing sources -- or citing sources that wouldn't
even be accepted in a first-year college course -- is very damaging to
credibility.

I JUST WONDER IF TIS GLOBAL DROUGHT IS A DESIGNED EFFECT DUE TO THE MASS
CHEMICAL SPRAYING OF OUR ATMOSPHERE. I LIVE IN BYRON BAY.AUS. THERE IS OFTEN
HEAVY SPRAYING IN THE WESTERN SKYS WHEN THE HIGHER ALTITUDE WINDS ARE BLOWING
IT OUT TO SEA.MMM ANY THOUGHTS ON THIS ?

1) The data from your "global drought map from a legitimate academic source"
is most probably incomplete or incorrect. Try to comparing it to the drought
map at the US drought
monitor and you will see that it drastically understates actual drought
levels.

2) In my drought map, I was focusing on how much of a countries aggricultural
land was affected by drought. So although Alaska isn't experiencing a drought,
the state has little aggricultural output so I discounted it when creating
the graphic above. Also, since Texas and California together produce 20 percent
of US food output, record breaking droughts in those two states alone greatly
impairs US food production.

I certainly know that global agriculture is in terrible straits; but to
produce a detailed article without citing sources -- or citing sources that
wouldn't even be accepted in a first-year college course -- is very damaging
to credibility.

Did you notice the comment above where I posted the link to fifteen of my
sources? That is on top of all the links in the article itself.

------------

Anonymous said...Perhaps the reason sources cannot be cited is because much of what is
presented as fact has no basis in truth. It is obvious that someone has an
agenda here.

Again, did you notice the comment above where I posted the link to fifteen
of my sources? That is on top of all the links in the article itself.

I say pull an Ishmael and let starvation take its natural course: I bet you
the more we try to counter-act this draught with supplying the starving with
food, the higher the population estimates will be. How high? A lot higher
than 9 billion in 2050, anyways...

Drought and flood are often seperated by only a few miles, as locally heavy
rain spills over and floods river bottoms, in drought stricken valleys. Also
note that these maps while pointing out an important fact, are in fact useless
in actually reporting drought/flood/crop growing situations in any significant
fashion. Food production is not determined by averages, but by the specific
conditions in a local place and time. Rain delayed by two weeks can change
crop output a significant ammount, and a small rain at the right time can
make a major difference. Almost perfect conditions all summer can be erased
by a storm which destroys a total crop in a day, and a snap shot picture
of drought conditions on a day in the spring is not a predictor of local
conditions later in the summer. The old farmers saying "plant in the dust,
bins will bust" referes to getting a crop in early and having the full benifit
of late spring rains (they almost always come) and cooler early growing season.
Global warming could give us a worldwide disaster this year, or some year,
and to this extent this is a good warning, however, let's be real -- I'm
looking forward to getting into the field soon, and expecting a great crop!

Eric said on February 10: "USDA production estimates, on which current market
are based, are way too optimistic. There is going to be a steady stream of
downward revisions of those estimates in coming weeks due to droughts and
lower production."

Comment: since your post, wheat prices have not increased, they have actually
dropped. December 2009 wheat went from 6.28 on Feb 10 to 5.84 on April 17
(WSJ).

On the other hand, according to April 9 USDA report,
"The 2008/09 season-average farm price is projected up 10 cents on the lower
end of the range to $6.80 to $6.90 per bushel. This is well above the previous
record of $6.48 per bushel in 2007/08.
http://www.usda.gov/oce/commodity/wasde/latest.pdf

The weather is unpredictable and who really knows what it is going to be
for the current growing season. Be careful about making weather forecasts!

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