Understanding the spatio-temporal dynamics of endemic infections is of critical importance for a deeper understanding of pathogen transmission, and for the design of more efficient public health strategies. However, very few studies in this domain have focused on emerging infections, generating a gap of knowledge that hampers epidemiological response planning. Here, we analyze the case of a Chikungunya outbreak that occurred in Martinique in 2014. Using time series estimates from a network of sentinel practitioners covering the entire island, we first analyze the spatio-temporal dynamics and show that the largest city has served as the epicenter of this epidemic. We further show that the epidemic spread from there through two different propagation waves moving northwards and southwards, probably by individuals moving along the road network. We then develop a mathematical model to explore the drivers of the temporal dynamics of this mosquito-borne virus. Finally, we show that human behavior, inferred by a textual analysis of messages published on the social network Twitter, is required to explain the epidemiological dynamics over time. Overall, our results suggest that human behavior has been a key component of the outbreak propagation, and we argue that such results can lead to more efficient public health strategies specifically targeting the propagation process.

Guillain-Barré syndrome and chikungunya: description of all cases diagnosed during the 2014 outbreak in the French West Indies / Balavoine S in American Journal of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene [Am J Trop Med Hyg], Vol. 97, N° 2 ([01/08/2017])

[article]

Titre :

Guillain-Barré syndrome and chikungunya: description of all cases diagnosed during the 2014 outbreak in the French West Indies

The Guillain-Barré syndrome (GBS) has been reported as a possible complication of acute chikungunya infection. The chikungunya epidemics, which occurred in Martinique and Guadeloupe in 2014, affected 308,000 people in these two islands. GBS occurred during or immediately after acute chikungunya infection in 13 patients (10 men, three women; mean age: 61 years). Median time from acute chikungunya to GBS onset was 9 days. Twelve patients were treated with intravenous polyvalent immunoglobulins, nine of whom improved within 7 days. Five of 13 patients required mechanical ventilation. Two patients with severe GBS died. At 6 months of follow-up, 7/13 achieved a good functional recovery with no or minor residual symptoms. A 2-fold increase in incidence was observed during the year of chikungunya outbreak. This study supports prior reports suggesting that GBS may be a complication of chikungunya.

Background: Guillain-Barré syndrome (GBS) has been reported to be associated with Zika virus (ZIKV) infection in case reports and retrospective studies, mostly on the basis of serological tests, with the problematic cross-reacting antibodies of the Flavivirus genus. Some GBS cases do not exhibit a high level of diagnostic certainty. This prospective study aimed to describe the clinical profiles and the frequency of GBS associated with ZIKV during the ZIKV outbreak in Martinique in 2016.
Methods: we recorded prospective data from GBS meeting levels 1 or 2 of diagnostic certainty for the Brighton Collaboration, with proof of recent ZIKV infection and negative screening for etiologies of GBS.
Results: of the sample of 34 patients with suspected GBS during the outbreak, 30 had a proven presence of GBS, and 23 had a recent ZIKV infection. The estimated GBS incidence rate ratio (2016 vs 2006 2015) was 4.52 (95% confidence interval, 2.80 7.64; P = .0001). Recent ZIKV infection was confirmed by urine reverse-transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) analysis in 17 cases and by serology in 6 cases. Patients, 65% of whom were male, had a median age of 61 years (interquartile range, 56 71 years) and experienced severe GBS. Electrophysiological tests were consistent with the primary demyelinating form of the disease.
Conclusions: ZIKV infection is usually benign, when symptomatic, but in countries at risk of ZIKV epidemics, adequate intensive care bed capacity is required for management of severe GBS cases. Arbovirus RNA detection by RT-PCR should be part of the management of GBS cases.

This retrospective case study analysed the incidence and symptoms of ciguatera fish poisoning (ciguatera) in Guadeloupe (French West Indies) between 2013 and 2016. Cases attending the emergency departments of the two public hospitals and the reports received by the regional health authority in charge of monitoring (ARS) were compiled. Two hundred and thirty-four cases of poisoning were observed, with a mean annual incidence of 1.47/10,000 (95% CI): 1.29-1.66), i.e 5 times higher than the previously reported incidence (1996-2006). The main species described as being responsible for poisoning were fish from the Carangidae family (n = 47) (jack), followed by fish from the Lutjanidae family (n = 27) (snapper), Serranidae family (n = 15) (grouper), Sphyraenidae family (n = 12) (barracuda), and Mullidae family (n = 12) (goatfish). One case of lionfish ciguatera was observed. 93.9% of patients experienced gastrointestinal symptoms, 76.0% presented neurological signs (mainly paresthesia, dysesthesia and pruritus) and 40.3% presented cardiovascular symptoms (bradycardia and/or hypotension). A high frequency (61.4%) of hypothermia (body temperature <36.5 °C) was observed. This study reports for the first time the relatively high frequency of cardiac symptoms and low body temperature. The monitoring of ciguatera poisoning throughout the Caribbean region must be improved, notably after reef disturbance due to Irma and Maria major cyclones.