Data archival for public research at SWS Survey Data Library, on CD-ROM, as with 1998 and 1995 ABS-CBN/SWS Day-of-Election Surveys.

*Updated as of 12 noon, May 15, 2001.

Posted: May 15, 2001

2001 VOTER TURNOUT IS 89% --- ABS-CBN / SWS Exit Poll

The ABS-CBN/SWS 2001 Day-of-Election Survey found that 5,446 went to vote on May 14th, out of a total random national sample of 6,077 registered voters, implying a national voter turnout rate of 89% after applying proper regional weights. The margin for sampling error is plus or minus 1% for the national rate.

Regionally, voter turnouts ranged between 83% in the National Capital Region and 96% in Bicol and Eastern Visayas, with error margins ranging from 3% to 4?%.

The ABS-CBN/SWS 2001 Day-of-Election Survey was conducted for the two objectives of obtaining a 24-hour assessment of the election outcome, and analyzing the election in relation to socio-demographics and to political and economic opinions of the voters.

The 2001 Day-of-Election Survey will be archived for public research at the SWS Survey Data Library, on CD-ROM, as with the 1998 and 1995 ABS-CBN/SWS Day-of Election Surveys.

The ABS-CBN/SWS 2001 Day-of-Election Survey indicates that the 13 winners of the 2001 senatorial election will be 8 from the People Power Coalition and 5 from the Puwersa ng Masa, based on its random sample of 5,446 voters who were interviewed nationwide yesterday.

Those in ranks 10-13 have a statistically significant lead over: 14. Enrile 32%, 15. Santiago 31%, 16. Ta?ada 27%, and 17. Puno 26%. The error margin for the borderline positions is only plus or minus 1.3%.

The sole qualification of the above general Day-of-Election Survey finding is that 6.7% of the respondents handed in ballots that turned out to be blank, and 2.7% gave invalid replies.

The ABS-CBN/SWS 2001 Day-of-Election Survey was conducted for the two objectives of obtaining a 24-hour assessment of the election outcome, and analyzing the election in relation to socio-demographics and to political and economic opinions of the voters.

The PPC's best performance was 12-1 in Region VII, followed by 10-2-1 in Region VI. The PnM's best performance was 1-12 in Regions XII and 3-10 in Region XI.

The average score of 8-5 was found in NCR, CAR, and Regions I, V, and VIII.

The PPC was ahead 7-6 in Regions II, III, and IX and behind by 6-7 in Region IV and Region X + Caraga, and 6-6-1 in ARMM.

The 2001 Day-of-Election Survey will be archived for public research at the SWS Survey Data Library, on CD-ROM, as with the 1998 and 1995 ABS-CBN/SWS Day-of Election Surveys.

The ABS-CBN/SWS 2001 Day-of-Election Survey of 5,446 voters shows that senatorial votes are related to public trust in Pres. Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo and former Pres. Joseph "Erap" Estrada.

Among those with much trust in Pres. Arroyo, representing 45% of voters, the composition of the top 13 candidates are 11 from the People Power Coalition (PPC) and 2 from the Puwersa ng Masa (PnM) coalition, including guest candidates.

However, among the 22% with little trust in her, the PPC-PnM score is 2-11.

This compares with the overall exit poll score of 8-5, as announced yesterday by ABS-CBN/SWS.

Among those with much trust in former Pres. Estrada, comprising 40% of voters, the PPC-PnM score is 4-9.
However, among the 36% with little trust in Erap, the score is 12-1.

The 2001 Day-of-Election Survey will be archived for public research at the SWS Survey Data Library, on CD-ROM, as with the 1998 and 1995 ABS-CBN/SWS Day-of Election Surveys.

Party-list contenders BAYAN (Bayan Muna) and MAD (Mamamayan Ayaw sa Droga) topped the ABS-CBN/SWS Day-of-Election Survey or 'exit poll', which showed seven groups as safe, another three as potential, and another two as possible winners, in the party-list election.

BAYAN got 12%, while MAD had 11%, of votes cast for party-list, both far above the 6% required for the maximum of three seats allowed to a party-list group in the House of Representatives.

Next in the poll came VFP (Veterans Federation of the Philippines) with 4.1%, and APEC (Association of Philippine Electric Cooperatives) with 3.9%.

VFP and APEC would be entitled to two seats each if they obtain at least 4% of the vote, but this could not be firmly established by the poll, given error margins of about 0.5% for the proportions of the two groups.

They were followed by AKBAYAN! (Citizen's Action Party) with 2.9%, PROMDI (ABAG PROMDI ) with 2.7%, and LDP (Laban Ng Demokratikong Pilipino) with 2.5%, all safely above the minimum 2% level for one seat each, using the applicable error margins of 0.4%.

Three other groups obtaining over 2% in the poll were NCIA (National Confederation Of Irrigators Assn.) with 2.4%, LAKAS NUCD-UMDP with 2.4%, and ABA (Alyansang Bayanihan Ng Mga Magsasaka, Manggagawang Bukid At Mangingisda) with 2.2%, but their margins of victory were not statistically safe.

Close behind were NPC (Nationalist Peoples' Coalition) with 1.9%, and MSCFO (Mindanao Federation Of Small Coconut Farmers' Orgs. Inc.) with 1.7%, both statistically undistinguishable from the 2% norm.

The ABS-CBN / SWS 2001 Day-of-Election Survey or 'exit poll' found that 53% of voters nationwide firmed up their Senatorial choices only during the last three weeks before election day.

Seven percent made up their minds 3 weeks before, 8% decided 2 weeks before, 16% decided 1 week before, and 22% only decided on election day itself. The other 47% had made their choices one month or more before the election.

The timing of the 2001 senatorial vote decision is similar to that of the 1998 presidential vote decision, as found by the ABS-CBN / SWS 1998 exit poll three years ago.

Voters in NCR and in Regions IV and V tend to decide their Senatorial choices relatively early. On the other hand, relatively more voters in Regions II, VII, VIII, and IX tend to decide only on Election Day itself.

Voters in urban areas, or in the middle-to-upper Class ABC, or with higher educational attainment tend to decide their Senatorial choices earlier than those in rural areas, or in lower classes, or with lower education.

In terms of religion, most Iglesia ni Cristo and Muslim voters made their choices relatively late, or not more than a week prior to the election.

In terms of language group, Tagalogs, Bicolanos, and Ilonggos tended to choose their Senatorial candidates relatively early.
Analysis revealed that, regardless of whether voters made up their minds a month before or only on election day, their score of choices by coalition was the same as the national average of 8 for PPC vs 5 for PnM, including guest candidates.

The ABS-CBN / SWS Day-of-Election Survey was conducted nationwide on a sample of 5,446 voters who cast their votes in the May 14, 2001 elections. The survey has a general error margin of ?1.4%, at the 95% confidence level.

The 2001 Day-of-Election Survey will be archived for public research at the SWS Survey Data Library, on CD-ROM, as with the 1998 and 1995 ABS-CBN / SWS Day-of-Elections Surveys.

The ABS-CBN / SWS 2001 Day-of-Election Survey or 'exit poll' found that the Iglesia Ni Cristo (INC) were solid in voting 8-5 according to their hierarchy's advisory, and that Muslims and members of Couples For Christ preferred PPC over PnM candidates in the May 14, 2001 Senatorial elections.

INCs small yet solid, but not enough for Miriam

INC's vote strength is only about 1.2 million or 3% of the total electorate, but with a conversion rate of 68-84% that translates to about 800 thousand to 1 million votes for Senatorial candidates endorsed by its leadership. As a solid voting bloc, INC votes can be very influential in helping borderline candidates for the Senate.

It is well known in pre-election polls that Noli de Castro and 8 PPC candidates were already ahead and that several PnM candidates contested the remaining 4 slots. This means that even without INC's support for de Castro and 8 PPC candidates, only the last PPC candidate (Recto) would be endangered if not supported by INC. On the other hand, INC's decision to support Angara, Loi Estrada, Lacson and Santiago was meant to deliver enough votes to establish the lead of these candidates against other PnMs in particular, Enrile, Honasan and Puno.

But the exit poll revealed that INC's support for Santiago was not enough to put her in the winning circle since other religious groups like Catholics, who comprise 82% of the electorate, gave more votes to Honasan than Santiago.

Muslims reject Pwersa ng Masa

The exit poll also showed that Muslims voted 9-3-1, in favor of PPC candidates. With the exception of de Castro, the 3 other non-PPCs were all Muslim candidates: PnM guest candidates Rasul and Tamano, and PDSP's Moner Bajunaid. Muslims, however, do not vote as a bloc considering that the votes they give for each candidate were significantly lower compared to that of INC.

Sweep for PPC among CFCs

The exit poll also found that the largest charismatic group in the country today is Couples For Christ (CFC), with a voting strength of 1.3 million or 4% of the total electorate, and that they voted 11-2, overwhelmingly in favor of PPC candidates. The only PnM candidates included in the top 13 slots were de Castro and Angara.

The findings cited above came from the ABS-CBN/SWS Day-of-Election Survey, conducted nationwide on a sample of 5,446 voters who were able to cast their votes in the May 14, 2001 elections. The survey has an error margin of ?1.4%, at the 95% confidence level.

The 2001 Day-of-Election Survey will be archived for public research at the SWS Survey Data Library, on CD-ROM, as with the 1998 and 1995ABS-CBN/SWS Day-of-Elections Surveys.
SWS is at 52 Malingap Street, Sikatuna Village, Quezon City 1101, with webpage at http://www.sws.org.ph and e-mail at sws_info@sws.org.ph and sws885@mozcom.com

Upper classes and the highly educated voted more for senatorial candidates from the People Power Coalition (PPC) than for those from the Puwersa ng Masa (PnM) coalition, according to the ABS-CBN/SWS 2001 Day-of-Election Survey of 5,446 voters.

Among the middle-to-upper Class ABC which comprise 9% of voters, the top 13 candidates are 11 from PPC and 2 from PnM, including guest candidates.

Compared to the overall exit poll score of 8-5 announced by ABS-CBN/SWS on May 15, additional PPC candidates who made it to the Class ABC's top 13 are Ta?ada, Monsod and Pagdanganan, displacing PnM candidates Lacson, Loi Estrada and Honasan.

However, among the very poor Class E which represents 23% of voters, the PPC-PnM score is 6-7. Among this class, PnM's Enrile and Santiago are in the top 13, while PPC's Pangilinan and Recto are out.

The score among the Class D or the masa, comprising 68% of voters, is the same as the national score of 8-5.

By educational attainment, the PPC-PnM score is 11-2 among college graduates, 8-5 among those with some college, 7-6 among those with partial up to full high school, and 6-7 among those with only elementary education.

Compared to the national PPC-PnM score of 8-5 counting guest candidates, the college graduates (15%) included PPC candidates Ta?ada, Monsod and Pagdanganan in their top 13 and exluded PnM candidates Lacson, Loi Estrada and Honasan, thus a score of 11-2.

The score among those with some college (15%) is the same as the national score of 8-5.

Among those with partial/full high school (34%), the top 13 include Enrile (PnM) instead of Magsaysay (PPC), for a PPC-PnM score of 7-6.

Among those with at most elementary education (36%), the top 13 include PnM's Enrile and Santiago, instead of PPC's Flavier and Recto, thus a score of 6-7.

The ABS-CBN/SWS 2001 Day-of-Election Survey was conducted for the two objectives of obtaining a 24-hour assessment of the election outcome, and analyzing the election in relation to socio-demographics and to political and economic opinions of the voters.

SWS is at 52 Malingap Street, Sikatuna Village, 1101, with webpage at www.sws.org.ph and email at sws_info@sws.org.ph and sws885@mozcom.com.

Those who voted last May 14 were divided into 53% who are skeptical that Joseph 'Erap' Estrada committed plunder, or enriched himself by hundreds of millions of pesos from corruption during his Presidency, and 46% who believe that he did commit plunder, according to the ABS-CBN/SWS 2001 Day-of-Election Survey or 'exit poll'.

The inclusion of the charge of plunder against Erap in the exit poll demonstrated that it was indeed a key issue in the 2001 election.

Senatorial score affected by belief in Erap plunder

Analysis of the senatorial votes shows that, among those who believe that Erap committed plunder, the score by coalition was a lopsided 12 for PPC and only 1 for independent candidate de Castro.

However, among non-believers in the plunder charge, the score was 5 for PPC and 8 for PnM/guests.

The overall national score in the exit poll, putting believers and non-believers together, of 8 for PPC vs. 5 for PnM/guests has been validated by the quick count of Namfrel to date.

Trust in GMA and Erap related to belief in plunder charge

Public trust in Pres. Macapagal-Arroyo and distrust in former Pres. Estrada on the one hand, and the belief that Erap committed plunder while in office on the other hand, are strongly related to each other.

Among the total 45% of voters nationwide with much trust in Pres. Arroyo, 62% believe that Erap committed plunder.

However, among the total 22% of voters nationwide with little trust in Pres. Arroyo, 71% do not believe that Erap committed plunder.

Among the total 40% of voters in the country with much trust in Erap, 75% do not believe the charge.
However, among the 36% of voters nationwide with little trust in Erap, 72% find it believable that Erap committed plunder.

Divisions between regions, social classes

In terms of regions, most voters in Regions 2, 3, 4, 8, 9, 10/Caraga, 11, and 12 do not believe that Erap committed plunder.

On the other hand, most voters in the National Capital Region, CAR, Regions 6 and 7, and ARMM believe the charge.

Voters in Regions 1 and 5 are evenly divided on the issue.

Most voters in urban areas, or in the middle-to-upper Class ABC, or with higher educational attainment tend to believe that Erap committed plunder.

In contrast, most of those in rural areas, or in lower classes, or with lower education tend to be skeptical about the plunder charge.

Muslims differ from INCs

In terms of religion, while a large majority of 66% among Muslims believe that Erap committed plunder, an even higher majority of 74% among Iglesia Ni Cristo (INC) members have doubts about the charge.

The ABS-CBN/SWS Day-of-Election Survey was conducted nationwide on a sample of 5,446 voters who cast their votes in the May 14, 2001 elections. The survey has a general error margin of ?1.4%, at the 95% confidence level.

The 2001 Day-of-Election Survey will be archived for public research at the SWS Survey Data Library, on CD-ROM, as with the 1998 and 1995ABS-CBN/SWS Day-of-Elections Surveys.

SWS is at 52 Malingap Street, Sikatuna Village, Quezon City 1101, with webpage at http://www.sws.org.ph and e-mail at sws_info@sws.org.ph and sws885@mozcom.com.

WHILE ELECTION WAS CLEAN AND FREE,VOTERS FEAR DAGDAG-BAWASGerardo A. Sandoval, Social Weather Stations

The ABS-CBN/SWS 2001 Day-of-Election Survey found that nearly 9 in 10 voters agreed that election was clean and free in their respective precincts; about a third anticipated dagdag-bawas occurring in their respective provinces/cities.

Election was clean and free

About nine out of ten voters (88%) agreed to the survey test statement, "Voting was clean and free in our precinct," while only 5% disagreed and 7% were undecided. A high net agreement score (% agree minus % disagree) of +83 was obtained at the national level.

Strong agreement to the survey statement was obtained across socio-demographics like region, locale, socio-economic class, gender, age groups and educational attainment.

Fear of dagdag-bawas

Asked of the possibility of dagdag-bawas occurring in their own province or city, 13% of voters said it would surely happen, 23% might happen, 39% might not happen and 25% said it would surely not happen.

Regionally, those certain that dagdag-bawas would occur ranged between 8% in CAR to 24% in the ARMM.

The ABS-CBN/SWS 2001 Day-of-Election Survey had 5,446 nationally-representative voter respondents. The survey was conducted for the two objectives of obtaining a 24-hour assessment of the election outcome, and analyzing the election in relation to socio-demographics and to political and economic opinions of the voters.

SWS is at 52 Malingap Street, Sikatuna Village, 1101, with webpage at www.sws.org.ph and email at sws_info@sws.org.ph and sws885@mozcom.com.

The ABS-CBN/SWS 2001 Day-of-Election Survey or 'exit poll' found that practically all Filipinos either watched, heard, or read political advertisements and were given sample ballots. A large majority found both to be of much help. Political advertisements which came in force a month before elections, however, hardly had an affect on the time of vote decision.

Political ads ubiquitous and helpful

When asked how much or little help were political advertisements in deciding on whom to vote for as Senators, two-thirds of voters (67%) said they were of "much" help, while 17% said they were of "little" help and 13% were unsure. Only 1% have not seen, watched, heard or read a political advertisement.

Regardless of regions, locale, socio-economic classes, gender, education, religion, charismatic groups, and first language used at the home, political advertisements were viewed to be of much help.

Political ads no effect on time of vote decision

Among those who said that political advertisements were of "much" help, 51% made their decision a month ago or earlier while among those who said political advertisements were of "little" help, a plurality (42%) also decided a month ago.

Sample ballots easily accessible and helpful

Asked how much or little help were the sample ballots in deciding whom to vote for as Senators, 63% of voters said they were of much help, while 19% said they were of little help and 14% were unsure. Only 1% did not see or receive a sample ballot.

The same pattern is observed across regions, locale, socio-economic classes, gender, education, religion, charismatic groups, and first language used at the home.

The findings cited above came from the ABS-CBN/SWS Day-of-Election Survey, conducted nationwide on a sample of 5,446 voters who were able to cast their votes in the May 14, 2001 elections. The survey has an error margin of ?1.4%, at the 95% confidence level.

SWS is at 52 Malingap Street, Sikatuna Village, Quezon City 1101, with webpage at http://www.sws.org.ph and e-mail at sws_info@sws.org.ph and sws885@mozcom.com.

PLURALITY HAD MODEST KNOWLEDGE OF THE PARTY LIST SYSTEM;A THIRD WERE NOT AWARE ---ABS-CBN/SWS EXIT POLLMackie R. de Leon, Social Weather Stations

The ABS-CBN/SWS 2001 Day-of-Election Survey or 'exit poll' found that only 22% were 'very' knowledgeable of the party list system while a plurality (43%, corrected for rounding) had 'modest' knowledge and about a third 'learned of it only during the survey'. The survey also found that party list votes are related to knowledge of the party list system.

Awareness of party list system mild, even none at all

When asked for their level of understanding of the party list system, 31% of voters said they have 'little' knowledge and 11% said they had 'almost no' knowledge for a total of 43% (corrected for rounding) with 'modest' knowledge.

A third (35%) heard of the party list system 'only during' the survey.

Only 22% had "very much" knowledge.

Effect on party list votes

Nationally, majority of voters (53%) cast their votes for a party list representative while 42% did not. The remaining 5% gave invalid votes.

Among those with "very much" or 'little' understanding of the party list system, 68% and 60%, respectively, voted for a party list representative.

However, of those who had 'almost no' knowledge of the party list system or 'learned of it for the first time', a majority (54% each ) did not cast a vote for a party list representative.

The findings cited above came from the ABS-CBN/SWS Day-of-Election Survey, conducted nationwide on a sample of 5,446 voters who were able to cast their votes in the May 14, 2001 elections. The survey has an error margin of ?1.4%, at the 95% confidence level.

SWS is at 52 Malingap Street, Sikatuna Village, Quezon City 1101, with webpage at http://www.sws.org.ph and e-mail at sws_info@sws.org.ph and sws885@mozcom.com.