Transportation

Transportation at Risk

A reliable, safe, and efficient U.S. transportation system is at risk from increases in heavy precipitation, coastal flooding, heat, wildfires, and other extreme events, as well as changes to average temperature. Throughout this century, climate change will continue to pose a risk to U.S. transportation infrastructure, with regional differences.

Coastal Risks

Sea level rise (SLR) is progressively making coastal roads and bridges more vulnerable and less reliable. The more than 60,000 miles of U.S. roads and bridges in coastal floodplains are clearly already vulnerable to extreme storms and hurricanes that cost billions in repairs.49 Higher sea levels will cause more severe flooding and more damage during coastal storms and hurricanes.50 Recent modeling shows how 1 foot of SLR combined with storm surge can result in more than 1 foot of increased storm surge.51,52 Low-clearance bridges are particularly vulnerable to increased wave loads from storm surges that can dislodge a bridge deck.53,54 Since the Third National Climate Assessment, new work has found that SLR has already contributed to damage of one major U.S. bridge during a hurricane: the 3-mile long bridge carrying I-10 over Escambia Bay, in Pensacola, Florida, was severely damaged during Hurricane Ivan in 2004 (the same mechanism was observed in 2005 after Hurricane Katrina) by wave-induced loads due to a historically high storm surge).53,55 Ports, which serve as a gateway for 99% of U.S. overseas trade,56 are particularly vulnerable to climate impacts from extreme weather events associated with rising sea levels and tropical storm activity.57 SLR and storm surge also threaten coastal airports.58

Figure 12.2: Annual Vehicle-Hours of Delay Due to High Tide Flooding

Figure 12.2: The figure shows annual vehicle-hours of delay for major roads (principal arterials, minor arterials, and major collectors) due to high tide flooding by state, year, and sea level rise scenario (from Sweet et al. 2017).59 Years are shown using decadal average (10-year) values (that is, 2020 is 2016–2025), except 2100, which is a 5-year average (2096–2100). One vehicle-hour of delay is equivalent to one vehicle delayed for one hour. Source: Jacobs et al. 2018,61 Figure 3, reproduced with permission of the Transportation Research Board.

Global average sea levels are expected to continue to rise by at least several inches over the next 15 years and by 1–4 feet by 2100. This 1-to-4-foot range includes the likely projected ranges under all the RCP scenarios.2 However, a rise of as much as 8 feet by 2100 is scientifically plausible due to possible Antarctic Ice Sheet instabilities.2 Coastal infrastructure will be exposed to the effects of relative SLR, which includes vertical land motion in addition to regional variations in the distribution of the global SLR. For example, relative SLR will be higher than the global average on the East and Gulf Coasts of the United States because of the sum of these effects.2 It is common practice for assessment and planning purposes to develop a range of scenarios of future sea levels that are consistent with these scientific estimates but not specifically based on any one. Scenarios developed by the Federal Interagency Sea Level Rise and Coastal Flood Hazard Scenarios and Tools Task Force span the scientifically plausible range and include an Intermediate-Low scenario of 1.6 feet of global average sea level rise by 2100, an Intermediate scenario of 3.3 feet, and an Extreme scenario of 8.2 feet.59 The relative SLR corresponding to some of these scenarios is used below to estimate increased coastal flooding delays.

Many coastal cities across the United States have experienced an increase in high tide flooding (Ch. 27: Hawai‘i & Pacific Islands),2 causing areas of permanent inundation and increased local flooding that reduce the functional performance for low-elevation roadways, rail, and bridges and often causing costly congestion and damage to infrastructure.1,2 In Hampton Roads, Virginia, one-third of residents report flooding in their neighborhoods at least a couple of times a year, and nearly half of residents were not able to get in or out of their neighborhoods at least once within the past year due to high tide flooding.60 On the U.S. East Coast alone, more than 7,500 miles of roadway are located in high tide flooding zones. Unmitigated, this flooding has the potential to nearly double the current 100 million vehicle-hours of delay likely by 2020 (representing an 85% increase from 2010), with a 10-fold increase by 2060 even under the intermediate-low SLR scenario (Figure 12.2).61 US Route 17 in Charleston, South Carolina, currently floods more than 10 times per year and is expected to experience up to 180 floods annually by 2045, with each flood costing the city $12.5 million (in 2009 dollars, undiscounted; $13.75 million in 2015 dollars) (Ch. 19: Southeast).2 Even if a roadway is not inundated, higher groundwater tables from SLR can impact tunnels and utility corridors and weaken roadway base materials in low-lying coastal regions.62,63,64,65

Precipitation and Flooding Risks

In most parts of the United States, heavy precipitation is increasing in frequency and intensity, and more severe precipitation events are anticipated in the future.25 Inland transportation infrastructure is highly vulnerable to intense rainfall and flooding, with impacts including less reliable transportation systems3 and increased accident risk.66,67 Extreme precipitation events annually shut down parts of the Interstate Highway System for days or weeks due to flooding and mudslides, as happened in the first five months of 2017 in, for example, northern California (I-80) and southern California (I-880) in January, north central California (I-5) in February, Idaho (I-86) in March, and the central United States including Missouri (I-44 and I-55) in May.

Nationally, projected future increases in inland precipitation over this century will threaten approximately 2,500 to 4,600 bridges by 2050, and 5,000 to 6,000 bridges by 2090, respectively, for the lower and higher scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5).47 Bridge failure is most common during unprecedented floods.68 Damage due to bridge scour can result during less extreme events. This occurs when sediment around piers and abutments is washed away, compromising bridges’ structural integrity.68 Increases in rainfall intensity can accelerate bridge foundation erosion and compromise the integrity and stability of scour-critical bridges.69

Freight movement at major international ports can be delayed under extreme weather events that include heavy rains and/or high winds affecting crane operations and truck service.57 Even without such disruptions, major international trade gateways, hubs, and distribution centers already experience some of the worst congestion in the country.15

Transportation systems that are most vulnerable to the recent observed and projected increases in precipitation intensity25 are those where drainage is already at capacity, where projected heavy rainfall events will occur over prolonged periods, and where changing winter precipitation increases transportation hazards from landslides and washouts.50 In the western United States, large wildfires have increased and are likely to increase further in the future.70 Debris flows, which consist of water, mud, and debris, are post-wildfire hazards that can escalate the vulnerability of transportation infrastructure to severe precipitation events71 by blocking culverts and inundating roads.72

Rising Temperature Risks

The frequency of summer heat waves has increased since the 1960s, and average annual temperatures have increased over the past three decades; these temperature changes are projected to continue to increase in the future.41 Across the United States, record-breaking summer temperatures and heat waves have immediate and long-term impacts on transportation. Through the urban heat island effect, heat events may become hotter and longer in cities than in the surrounding rural and suburban areas (Ch. 11: Urban).

High temperatures can stress bridge integrity.4,5 Extreme temperatures cause frequent and extended delays to passenger and freight rail systems and air traffic when local safe operating guidelines are exceeded.4,6 Rail tracks expand and weaken, sometimes even bend, under extreme heat.73 Air transport is sensitive to extreme heat because hotter air makes it more difficult for airplanes to generate lift (the force required for an airplane to take flight), especially at higher elevations, requiring weight reductions and/or longer takeoff distances that may require runway extensions.74,75

Heat also compromises worker and public safety. Temperature extremes cause vehicles to overheat and tires to shred, while buckled roadway joints can send vehicles airborne.76,77 Elevated temperature, combined with increased salinity and humidity, accelerates deterioration in bridges and roads constructed with concrete.78,79 Higher ambient temperatures and extreme heat events can negatively impact pavement performance and, in turn, increase costs due to material upgrades to accommodate higher temperatures; these costs are only modestly reduced by less frequent maintenance.12 For example, fixing pavement distress caused by a 2011 heat wave and drought cost the Texas Department of Transportation (DOT) $26 million (dollar year unspecified).80

Heat waves and drought require state DOTs to allocate resources to repair damaged pavement. For example, Virginia DOT has dedicated crews who quickly repair roads during extreme heat events.81 Protocols that govern worker safety limit construction during heat waves3,76,82 and result in lost productivity.83 Increased cooling needed to alleviate passenger discomfort and cargo overheating84 can cause mechanical failures and reduced service, as well as greater greenhouse gas emissions.

An additional 20–30 days per year with temperatures exceeding 90°F (32°C) are projected in most areas by mid-century under a higher scenario (RCP8.5), with increases of 40–50 days in much of the Southeast.41 In the United States, 5.8 million miles of paved roads are susceptible to increased rutting, cracking, and buckling when sustained temperatures exceed 90°F.85 Climate change is anticipated to increase the current $73 billion in temperature-induced railway delay costs by $25–$60 billion (in 2015 dollars, discounted at 3%).6 Heat impacts to airports are expected to increase in the future74 and, in some cases, are the most critical vulnerability for a region.86

It is possible that projected warmer conditions could have some positive effects. Milder winters will lengthen the shipping season in northern inland ports, including the Great Lakes and the Saint Lawrence Seaway.87,88 The reduction of snow and icing events in southern regions will likely benefit transportation safety, because snow has a significantly higher vehicle accident risk than rainfall.66,82 Damage to bridges and roads caused by potholes and frost heaves costs hundreds of millions of dollars annually,4 and changing winter conditions will likely alleviate expenditures in some regions but amplify expenditures in others.12 However, thawing and freezing rain events may reduce some of the winter maintenance savings. The Alaska Department of Transportation and Public Facilities is anticipating significant challenges due to the effects of warming temperatures on roadways, and it may see increased costs in anti-icing measures in areas that previously rarely had mid-winter thawing and freezing rain.89