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Monday, December 28, 2009

Naikun wind power boondoggle unravaled

I have studied this project seven ways to sunday and concluded it`s a bust for all concerned,especially the Haida nation.

Lets get down to business, fact versus fiction,the straight goods, who else to look at when deciding about wind power than Denmark. In 1998 Denmark did a study on their wind power strategy and concluded that wind power has "Serious environmental effects,insufficient production,and high production costs".

Denmark (pop 5.3 million) has more than 6000 turbines that produced electricity equal to 19% of what the country used in 2002, yet no conventional power plant has been closed or mothballed because of the intermittent and variability of wind power,conventional plants must be kept running. In other words the wind is never blowing sufficiently most of the time and the wind power needs to be backed up at all times, funny thing with wind,it tends to drop off in the early evening when demand is higher.

No matter how much wind power you create you need an equal amount of ready back-up power for when the wind stops, time and time again in examples in Denmark and other European countries the result is dumping windpower energy cheap into the market, and every country peddling their wind power ends up with energy trade losses, the Naikun project is so capital extensive,maintenance, replacement, it will never make money and end up mothballed before the principle investors (The Haida) ever get paid back for their investment.

A writer in the :utilities journal: (David J White, "Danish wind:Too good to be true?," July 2004) found that 84% of western Denmark`s wind-generated power was exported(At a revenue Loss) in 2003,...Denmark`s glut of wind turbines produced only 3.3% of Denmark`s electricity......In actuality wind-power only supplies 1.7% of Denmark`s power. Wind power companies always talk about what they produce in power but that is nothing but myth, here`s the deal, country after country have numbers to show that wind energy ends up supplying only 15 to 24 % of the power they claim, so if Naikun is claiming to produce 396 mega watts of power in reality it will produce at most 100 mega watts of power on a year round basis, and when you take out it`s own internal power the turbines draw from the grid, maintenance, and a dismal financial forecast emerges. (Read about unaccounted power consumption for wind turbines here) http://www.aweo.org/windconsumption.html

Denmark relies just enough on wind power that when the wind fails to blow they are immediately having to import power, in 2000 Denmark imported more than they exported cheap wind-power.And, added to their Danish hydro bills are the massive subsidies that support these private companies building wind farms, Danish residential users pay the highest rate in Europe for electricity.

Throughout Europe wind turbines produced on average less than 20% of their theoretical capacity,yet both the British and American wind energy Associations(BWEA and AWEA) plan for 30%. The figure in Denmark was 16.8% in 2002 and 19% in 2003 (In february 2003,the output of the more than 6000 turbines was 0%). The average in Germany for 1998-2003 was 14.7%............In the USA was 12.7%.......That`s right,if a wind farm has a capacity of say 500 mega watts year over year will be lucky to produce 20% of capacity.

So no matter what these people tell you about capacity at Naikun the power generated will be lucky to be 20% of rated capacity, so now the Naikun cost per Mega watt jumps from the 5,000,000 megawatt (That number freaked out Chief Roy Jones Junior, 60% more than a land based wind farm)...but now that price jumps to 25,000,000 a mega watt hour, at that price and only produces 100 or less mega watts it will never pay for itself, the cost would be a permanent millstone around the Haida`s neck, the Naikun at present power costs,even with massive taxpayer subsidies will bleed money from the province,from the Haida, from the investors, in 40 years it would be lucky to pay back the capital costs let alone carrying costs, replacement costs, all that for cheap,intermittent power that has to be backed up, every where I look there are problems with wind.

Eon Netz,grid manager for 1/3rd of the German grid explains another problem, for all wind power development you need to have an equivalent of 80% capacity in what`s called "Shadow power plants" , Eon Netz concluded that wind power added to the grid actually increased the burning of fossil fuels not reducing it.(read his report here) http://www.aweo.org/windEon2004.html

...........The more .wind power you have ,the more fossil fuel back-up that`s required,thus adding to greenhouse gasses not reducing emissions.

Despite all the claims of wind power, in 2008 the Danish government cancelled plans for three offshore windfarms, and has scheduled the withdraw of subsidies from existing sites,development of onshore wind plants has virtually stopped.Because Danish companies dominate the wind industry, the government is under pressure to continue subsidies.Spain began withdrawing subsidies in 2002. Germany reduced tax breaks to wind power,and domestic construction has slowed in 2004. Switzerland also is cutting subsidies as TOO expensive for the lack of significant benefit. The Netherlands decommissioned 90 turbines in 2004. Many Japanese utilities limit the amount of wind energy they put on the grid because it is so unstable, for the same reason Ireland in 2003 halted all new wind power connections to the grid.....In 2005 Spanish utilities began refusing new wind power connections to the grid and....In 2006, the Spanish government ended-By emergency decree--It`s subsidy and price support for big wind energy.( read about the Spanish government decree here) http://energypolicyblog.com/2007/16/windy-changes-in-spain/

Everyone of those countries are running away from wind power,study after study are revealing the facts, wind power because the intermittance of the supply doesn`t help reduce greenhouse gasses and in fact causes more gasses and more reliance on other sources, studies suggest that retrofitting older homes makes twice the sense than investing in wind power(Read this article from the guardian here on how wind farms mean more fossil fuel burning here) http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2005/feb/26/sciencenews.renewableenergy

All over Europe wind power fails, wind power is in decline,so are the subsidies, the Naikun is so expensive,even cheaper land based operations are in trouble, 2 $ billion dollar capital cost for 100 mega watts of power will keep the Haida nation poor,broke and dependent.

There are studies in the USA that state that by improving the transmission lines they can gain 25% more power and makes far more sense than wasting time on wind energy,more can be gained by insulating homes and transmission line improvement than even the most rosy wind energy forecast, and when you take into account the taxpayer subsidies to wind energy,by far, retro-fitting homes and transmission lines is the better route and will result in greenhouse gas reduction rather than an increase in fossil fuel burning with wind power!

The folly of wind power, The UK government did a study...The government subsidy of one wind turbine,for the same money they could insulate 500 houses and save in 2 years the amount of energy that one turbine would produce in it`s lifetime.

Finally,wind power on a small scale,where a turbine directly supplies the users the fluctuating production can be stored,wind can contribute to a home, school.factory, office building,or even a small village`s electricity,But this simply won`t work on a large scale to supply the grid. Even the small benefits claimed by their promoters are far outstripped by the negative impacts.

I hope the BCUC is listening and paying attention...

It is clear that wind power can`t contribute anything in the fight against greenhouse gasses,climate change,pollution or nuclear waste, in Denmark,with the most per-capita wind turbines in the world,the output from wind equals 15 to 20% of electricity use,the Copenhagen newspaper (politiken) reported only 1.7% of Denmark`s power use was wind power. The grid manager Eon Netz claimed 84% of wind power was exported, ie ....Dumped for pocket change on the spot market,the director at Western Denmark utility claims that wind-power causes more fossil fuel burning not less...industrial wind power are worse than nothing at all, they destroy birds,wildlife, offshore they create hazards for shipping and boats,their low frequency noises are harmful to sea life,They require massive subsidies and regulatory favours to make them good investments, they move us farther away from real sustainable solutions.More on the futility of wind here... http://www.aweo.org/windbackup.html

Paul Taylor is selling the Haida nation false hope,study after study,failure after failure, wind power for grid power is a disaster! 2 $Billion dollars for construction, one hundred,two hundred million dollars could just vanish during construction, heck,that`s only 10% missing, maybe that`s the scam, huge cost overuns or not, after the 2 billion is spent whether it loses money or not won`t matter.(A good read here on how windpower is useless) http://www.aweo.org/windCourtney1.html

I hope we can learn from other countries wind disasters....Beware Haida nation,beware of "used car salesman bearing gifts"

21 comments:

Anonymous
said...

The province's best wind generation potential is to mount turbines at the door entrances of the BC legislature in order to take advantage of all of the wind energy from the political blowhards rushing out the door.

BTW, did you know that Calgarys' C-Train lrt is entirely powered by wind energy?

Good Info, We'll be meeting to question the Naikun Wind Farm early in the New Year and hopefully put a stop to this nonsense, one thing is we don't have $800 million.Roy S Jones JrChief of the Kaadus Gaah K'iiguuwaayHaida Gwaii

Thanks 9:53 AM...I read that story,just like I alluded to in my story "Liberals across Canada are destroying lives"....Yes indeed, the "corporation" has been making huge profits in a down economy,and the government is giving them more,no job recovery....and with all of those hundreds of billions in stashed cash....

No one wants to give/lend/invest with Paul Taylor, that should tell you everything you need to know about this project,if it was a successful idea investors would be crawling all over themselves to get in.....

They`re not,Naikun is a theft, in fact friends, the more I think about this project and how it will lose money,the scam is......

It doesn`t matter whether it makes money or loses tens of millions....There is 200 $million dollars available to skim from the capital investors...A mere 10% skim is 200 $million, kickbacks/labour egreements/foreign workers/suppliers and installers.....

Welcome to Paul Taylors world....The same thing happened at ICBC...Insiders benefitting,rigged auctions...Chop shop,free car work for executives,all those shennanigans in a established insurance outfit, now you have a unknown company run by Paul Taylor....

"In September 2001 the City of Calgary announced its decision to use commercial wind energy as the primary source of the Ctrain system's electricity – a program called Ride the Wind! Calgary's CTrain system now runs on wind-generated electricity."

http://www.lightrailnow.org/news/n_cal_2008-01a.htm

"Calgary's C-Train system already runs entirely on power generated from the wind."

That`s the thing with wind energy, wind has the capability of providing power for Calgary`s C train(When the wind is blowing) But like all wind operations, a back-up power source must always be available!

Naikun is claiming 396 mega watts....Exemples from wind farms around the world say....

Wind power only produces on average 20% of their rated power...So 396 mega watts--Divided by 5= 79.2 mega watts of power....

$2 billion dollars capital cost for roughly 80 mega watts of power works out to $25 million dollars per mega watt hour....

There is no way to make that number work with maintenance,replacement,internal power draw,interest and carrying costs.

A more practical idea....Build onshore wind farm on Haida Gwaii to supply ample energy for domestic use and industry...Wind power for the grid,"a fool and their money"....

Grant G December 29, 2009 11:32 AM A more practical idea....Build onshore wind farm on Haida Gwaii to supply ample energy for domestic use and industry...Wind power for the grid,"a fool and their money-------------------------------------------------I agree the Haidas should look after their own on shore requirements, forget this goofy Naikun Wind Farm airy fairy schemeAs for wind power, the 20% rule of supplement power supply by wind mill applies in Calgary as everywhere else, if the lightrail was 100% wind-turbine reliant , they would have to utilize the stampede horses to pull it .Last time I went through Pincher Creek I don't think half of the wind mills were turning. Henri Paul

Thieves are plundering the province and few voices are sounding alarms, especially few in traditional media. SFU’s Doug McArthur said it succinctly:

"I have suggested that since this whole system essentially involves a non-earned transfer of billions of dollars from BC citizens to private power producers, and that this result is perfectly obvious to anyone who takes the time to follow the money, the whole arrangement is essentially corrupt. The fact that the whole program has been developed behind closed doors in association with private power producers simply strengthens that argument."

I hope First Nations people rise up and speak with one voice of opposition against the private power industry. We know a handful have been purchased but and their fellows can bring those people to account.

Anonymous said...December 30, 2009 7:04 AM I think the BC government is just working for organized crime and will plunder this province until there is nothing less.----------------------------------------------Let me reword that a bit. The BC government is organized crime, and will plunder this province until there is nothing less.

The more I think about this project,the more I believe it`s about construction skim.

If you were Paul Taylor, Campbell`s deputy finance minister then appointed to head up ICBC...We know what happened at ICBC under Paul Taylors watch,he was also in Campbell`s finance department through the BC Rail sale..BC Ferries giveaway....He knows how to confuse and mis label the books.

A few Naikun insiders split up 200 $million dollars worth of skim from the construction and who cares....It isn`t Paul Taylor putting up any of his money...Naikun wind power has 16 million dollars(maybe) to invest into this 2 $billion dollar boondoggle....That`s less than 1% of the front money.

This project,if it was viable would have investors lined up,they don`t, they don`t have 1.2 $billion dollars worth of investors and are holding a 800 $ million dollar spot for the Haida!

No, Con-man Paul Taylor needs the Haida to come up with $800 million just to get the ball rolling....The Haida have no money,they need a loan guarantee from Ottawa...

This project,Paul Taylor,Vancouver sun,Gordon Campbell have already made illegal and false press releases about the Haida and their intentions,the Haida are nothing more than a bank of last resort,if the project had merit,banks would lend Paul Taylor money....

But Canadian banks are stupid enough to lend Paul Taylor anything,would YOU LEND Taylor money? I wouldn`t.....

In Fact...If I was a Haida leader I would be talking to wind power experts from Denmark, if the Haida come up with a billion dollars, there would be plenty of companies willing to run a Straight operation with the Haida.....

Mark my words,if the Haida play with Paul Taylor....As soon as the construction is complete Taylor will vanish.

Just look in the mirror Haida nation and ask yourselves..."Do we trust Gordon Campbell or Paul Taylor"

As an acknowledged expert on offshore wind energy I can only say that Grant G has his facts wrong. Otherwise, why would all the big utilities in Europe and the United Kingdom be pouring in billions of Euro into offshore wind energy together with huge investment by the world's wind turbine manufacturers ?It is very easy to paint a negative picture when simply picking the convenient reports to support an argument. The views on the efficiency of offshore wind energy expressed by Grant G are not shared by the European Union!Peter Christoph

So Peter Christoph, we await your detailed references demonstrating that Danish consumers have had great success with the wind energy program. Clearly, deal makers did well at the front end just as mortgage brokers did well in the USA housing market, before the melt down. The art and the money was in the deal, not the long term operation.

I also wonder about the coincidence of members of Naikun's board being oil & gas moguls, and the province's rumblings of trying to get the moratorium on oil & gas research in Hecate Straight...seems like a great opportunity to gather insider information...am I just a conspiracy theorist?

The Shell oil company owns all the sub-surface rights for oil drilling in Hecate Strait,if the moratorium ever gets lifted,in fact Shell oil is against the Naikun wind farm fearing 100 hundred giant windmills will interfere in shipping and oil drilling,can you imagine an oil tanker running into a giant windmill?