Community

Homes, schools, job opportunities have continued to siphon people from Dallas to suburbia

Victor and Randy Ray like their house in Oak Cliff, like the neighborhood and like the school their two kids attend.

But their house is on the market and they’re planning a move north, to McKinney, Frisco or Allen, “with McKinney leading the pack,” Randy said.

They’re leaving Dallas for many of the reasons others cite: a newer home, more house for the money, greater shopping options and neighborhoods where their children can attend school with their friends.

“Living in the same neighborhood with the kids you go to school with, that’s an aspect of it,” Randy said. “Our kids are in a good school, but it isn’t a neighborhood school.

“Close to the school — that’s the difference,” he said. “The difference with most of the houses we’ve looked at is great proximity to elementary schools.”

A few years back, the Rays probably wouldn’t have considered the move. Two years ago, though, Randy moved to a new job near LBJ Freeway and Central Expressway.

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Dallas lags in state-to-state migration

Texas remains a destination for people from other parts of the U.S., but Dallas trails the state's other major cities. Chart arranged by highest-to-lowest county population. Changes are for 2007-11.

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“It changes your perspective,” he said. “I doubt we would be thinking about this if I was still working downtown.

“Balancing the trade-offs, there are more pros [to moving] than cons.”

U.S. Census Bureau estimates from 2007 to 2011 show that many Dallas County residents follow that same path. Over that five-year period, Dallas County lost residents to adjoining counties, in virtually every income and education group.

Dallas County grew by more than 26,000 people from July 1, 2012, to July 1, 2013, the Census Bureau reported, but almost all of that gain came from natural increase: births minus deaths. Almost 6,000 residents left Dallas County for other counties and other states.

Many simply moved across the county line.

Over that same period, Collin County added more than 10,000 people from domestic migration, Denton more than 12,000 and Tarrant 9,000. Texas’ other central city counties saw far more people moving in than leaving, too, with domestic migration increases of 20,000 in Harris County, 13,000 in Bexar and 9,000 in Travis.

But Dallas has key differences from other big-city counties. It is smaller geographically and more densely populated. The Dallas Independent School District has a lower percentage of non-Hispanic white schoolchildren in public schools than Houston or Austin.

Dallas County added 3,301 through migration, thanks to more than 9,000 people who came from other countries. But Collin, Denton and Tarrant each added more than 13,000, most from domestic migration.

Hispanics make up the largest racial or ethnic group in Dallas County, said Dr. Lloyd Potter, the Texas state demographer. Hispanics have a lower median age than other groups, higher birthrates and larger families — 25.9 percent are in families with five or more people, compared with 10 percent of non-Hispanic whites and 15 percent of non-Hispanic blacks.

“When you have a younger age structure, you have a larger percentage in the childbearing years,” Potter said, “and that’s suggestive of higher fertility.”

Hispanics accounted for a large proportion of the 39,000 births in Dallas County from July 1, 2012, to July 1, 2013, and according to projections from the state demographer’s office, Hispanic numbers in Dallas County will continue to soar.

From a projected population of 987,000 in 2014, the demographer’s office calculates that the Hispanic population in Dallas County will grow to 1.77 million by 2050.

The non-Hispanic black population will also grow over the next four decades, the projections show, but at a much slower rate — from about 540,000 to about 640,000.

The non-Hispanic white population, on the other hand, could peak as soon as 2016 at slightly more than 788,000, and then decline, the demographer’s projections show.

Many will probably move to adjoining suburban counties, Potter said.

“A significant number of people are moving out of Dallas for places like Denton and Rockwall counties, and those people are more likely to be non-Hispanic white, people with higher education, more income,” he said. “It isn’t just money that’s driving it, although that’s a considerable factor. It’s quality of life.

“For families with kids, it’s the schools. And they want more house for their money — more square footage, more amenities, more of a yard,” Potter said.

“And the other thing is employment opportunities in the suburban counties are increasing as well,” he said. “It’s all part of an economic equation.”