An Oil Supply Squeeze Is Coming In The Years Ahead

By Frank Holmes:Did you know that China’s energy demand is set to grow so dramatically over the next 25 years that its consumption is expected to be 68 percent higher than that of the U.S.? That was only one of the findings of the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). In its new International Energy Outlook 2011, the EIA reports that throughout the world, energy consumption is expected to rise by 53 percent from 2008 through 2035, driven by robust economic growth and expanding populations in the developing countries. The EIA estimates growth to be relatively flat for OECD countries, which are generally the more advanced energy consumers. In contrast, non-OECD—emerging countries—are expected to expand by an average of 2.3 percent per year. Led by China and India, non-OECD Asia is expected to grow the most, rising 117 percent from 2008 to 2035. By 2035, China and India are expected to consume 31Complete Story »

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The EIA forecast for Canadian oil output is far more conservative than the 6.7 million bpd estimated by CAPP
Despite the buzz surrounding renewable energy, fossil fuels will still account for 80% of all energy supply by 2040, according to a forecast from the Energy Information Administration, the statistical arm of the U.S. Energy Department.

Reader David Epperson sent in some interesting charts on global oil usage that he produced from U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) data. The data is through the end of 2013.David writes ... Hello Mish, I was curious how much oil consumption had declined over the last few years, so I went to the EIA web site, downloaded the consumption data and produced the following charts.

By David Fessler:Earlier, I talked about the 25-year outlook for liquid fuels based on the Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) International Energy Outlook 2011. It’s the EIA’s annual 25-year energy forecast, and it contains important information for investors who are considering an investment in the energy sector. Now, I’ll cover the future of coal in the world energy picture.

U.S. oil and gas production over the next two decades will be higher than previously expected, the government said on Wednesday, underscoring the push toward greater energy self-sufficiency and more exports of natural gas.
In its annual outlook, including the first forecasts through 2040, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said imports as a share of total U.S. energy production, including oil, gas and renewables, would be 9% by 2040 against 19% in 2011 and 29% as recently as 2007.

As we come to the end of 2013, it’s a good time to reflect on some of the biggest resources stories of the year. One that immediately comes to mind is the U.S. energy resurgence and its tremendous effect on oil and gas.
Only a few years ago, we were contemplating the supply constraints facing the petroleum industry, as many major oil fields around the world were declining in production. Now, with the disruptive technology in shale oil and gas, we may be looking forward to decades of drilling.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration on Tuesday slightly raised its estimate for domestic natural gas production in 2013, expecting output this year to be up about 1.2 percent from 2012’s record high levels.
In its October Short-Term Energy Outlook, the EIA said it expected marketed natural gas production in 2013 to rise by 0.82 billion cubic feet per day to 70.00 bcf per day, up fractionally from its September outlook of 69.91 bcf daily.

By David White:Forty Five Asian countries are forecast to grow by 7.8%+ in 2011 and by 7.7% in 2012. These countries will all demand more electricity for both their businesses and their homes. Much of this will be generated from coal. Further, these countries will demand more coking coal to use for making steel. The chart below shows the EIA predicted growth forecast for non-OECD Asian countries. This includes China and India. The non-OECD Asian countries account for 95% of the projected increase in world coal consumption from 2007 to 2035.

Sluggish global growth and a recent economic slowdown in resource-hungry China have hammered commodities markets this year, sending the price of everything from iron ore to copper tumbling. With those sharp reversals—as well as the Fed’s comments about tapering the size of the United States’ monetary stimulus—fresh in their minds, the 300 clients who convened last week at Credit Suisse’s New York headquarters for the bank’s third annual Commodities Day had plenty to talk about.

A surge in U.S. oil production has pushed the country’s output to the highest level since 1992, threatening the dominance of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries.
The U.S. pumped 7.06 million barrels a day in the week ended Feb. 8, up 1 percent from the previous week and extending last year’s 19 percent gain, the Energy Information Administration said today. OPEC production fell to the lowest level in a year in January, the Paris-based International Energy Agency said today in its monthly report.