As that’s where Scottish Labour is led from, of course. The Ashcroft polls leaked late last night have, it’s fair to say, caused a certain degree of furore among politics types.

Contrary to some expectations, the figures could scarcely have been worse. Of 16 seats polled – 14 held by Labour and two Lib Dem – 15 would go to the SNP on staggering swings of over 20%. Labour’s Glasgow heartlands would be all but wiped out, with only Willie Bain in Glasgow North East barely clinging on.

The SNP will undoubtedly be cock-a-hoop, but will almost certainly also be feverishly warning activists that polls don’t win seats and reminding them of the party’s own spectacular recovery in the 2011 Holyrood election from what looked like disaster just a couple of months out from the vote.

Lord Ashcroft himself points out (as we did ourselves on Twitter last night) that the seats he polled were mainly in areas that voted Yes last year, and so may be unduly flattering the SNP. But it’s worth seeing them in context.

Below is a chart of all 59 of the Scottish constituencies at Westminster, arranged in ascending order of the size of swing the SNP would need in order to capture them in May. We’ve highlighted the ones polled by Lord Ashcroft in black.

As you can see, they cover a decent range of the statistical spectrum, if not the geographic one – 14 of the 16 are broadly in the vicinity of Glasgow and Dundee, Scotland’s two Yes cities. But nevertheless, Labour’s blood will be running cold at the discovery that the SNP surge could even seize a seat like Coatbridge, Chryston and Bellshill, which must surely have been beyond its wildest imaginings.

When projections were based on uniform swings, it was easy to dismiss the realistic chances of overturning Tom Clarke’s crushing majority of almost 21,000. But when a full-sample poll actually conducted entirely within the constituency puts the Nats in front there, pretty much anything starts to seem possible.

The caveats which must be applied to these polls are many, and we’ve mentioned some of them above. Complacency is the mortal enemy of any political party, and if SNP workers believe the battle is already won, it soon won’t be. Polls in less Yes-friendly areas could easily pour cold water on their hopes.

But there’s no escaping the fact that this data is starting to look a lot like a paradigm shift. Delving deeper into it reveals things that nobody would ever have believed just a few months ago – in Labour’s most historic heartlands, large sections of their own voters would rather see David Cameron remain Prime Minister than Ed Miliband.

The seats polled for the figure above are between #30 and #53 on the list of SNP targets. The lowest swing they need to capture any one of them is almost 16%. Yet 35% of 2010 Labour voters in these core Labour strongholds, where they’ve weighed the vote rather than counted it for longer than we’ve been alive, would now rather have an Etonian Tory as PM than their own party’s leader. Things just don’t get much more earth-shaking in Scottish politics than that.

The show isn’t over until the fat lady sings. But the word “crisis” barely begins to describe Scottish Labour’s current predicament. Scotland just doesn’t want it any more, and it’s running out of time and desperate empty promises to try to win it back.

209 to “Panic on the streets of London”

With the Coatbridge, Chryston & Bellshill example above, you can just feel the Slab urge to request help from their new found Tory buddies by “borrowing ” their votes – just this once, honest, cross my bleeding heart.

Just made a point about the fact that the figures released by Ashcroft are Labour seats that voted Yes in the referendum (with a couple of high profile Lib Dems seats thrown in)

Firstly, the polls are weighted by 2010 recalled vote, so they are almost certainly underestimating the SNP vote!

But the thing that cheered me is that the areas that tended to vote Yes were mostly the poorest constituencies in Scotland and it is these same areas, that have tended to have always voted Labour (now isn’t that interesting in itself) so they have voted Labour and returned the highest majorities.

So if as Ashcroft has hinted the swings to the SNP aren’t so large in the other seats polled, Labour/Lib Dems will still be vulnerable to the SNP, because they won’t be defending such large majorities!

So expect more grief for oor Duncan and his Patriotic, Football loving, concerned for the poorest in our society, C U Jimmy, Labour Party 🙂

Tom Clarke is my MP. I will be genuinely staggered if he loses his seat. For years, my vote for the SNP has always felt wasted (Thanks to the brilliance of FPTP). This time it might actually be worth something.

Lahour in Scotland have had things their own way for generations. They didn’t have to bother to try too hard in persuading their core vote, because they could rely on family traditions of voting Labour. Family traditions based on the belief that Labour represented the working man.

Now people can see that Labour are pretty much part of the Establishment, and are looking for alternatives. Labour are floundering because they are not used to having to work for their votes and have forgotten how to do it, hence the scatter-gun approach of ‘promise them anything and see what sticks’. Joined-up thinking it is not.

It would be great to have some sort of graph of interest in Inde/social justice/SNP trends over the last 50 years. How many might have, for example, read The Claim of Scotland when it originally came out in the 60s.

Such a graph would of course show peaks and troughs, but recent events would call for a logarithmic scale !

Incidentally I hadn’t expected to see major UK business in any worse a light than at the Referendum, but the current furore against Labour by the media, orchestrated by the Tory Party plumbs new depths, given Labour’s track record on its behalf over the last 20 years.

Complacency pales into insignificance. Our job will be to try and overcome this huge barrier to truth and rational argument. I still don’t know how, but I can only add my tiny voice to the growing background noise that is the discomfort felt by our fellow travellers.

When you look at the Labour majorities in some (most?) seats, they do seem unassailable, but it’s important to bear in mind that many voters have already made the switch to the SNP for Holyrood seats, so many of these voters are not just open to the idea of voting SNP, but have done it before in other elections.

So in Aberdeen South, for example, it looks like we have an impossible task, since the SNP came fourth in 2010 – below even the Tories, who managed to get 20% (we have a lot of oil industry middle-management types). But our MSP is Margaret Watt, the public health minister, so around 30% of the non-SNP voters from 2010 have already given the SNP their vote once.

All it takes is for such people to be convinced to go from part-time SNP voter to full-time SNP voter, and the polls have been saying for months that the gap between Westminster voting intentions and Holyrood voting intentions seems to have pretty much closed up.

The SNP has over 90,000 members. As long as people are serious about helping out and don’t just sit back thinking joining the party is enough, then we can do this. Chap doors, phone folk up, deliver leaflets – do whatever you can. Just make sure you do *something* to rid Scotland of these red-rosetted self-serving shysters.

A bit frustrating to be in Jimmy Hoods constituency “Lanark and Hamilton East” it wasn’t surveyed I guess because the constituency voted a slim “No” majority. Encouraging news from neighbouring areas but looking at that 50% share of the previous vote and a swing of 14.5% required we have a bit of a job on our hands.

The positive that I take from this is that morale must be at rock bottom within Labour “Scotland Branch” long may that last.

Stu, there’s an erroneous assumption in your “Swing Required” spreadsheet that the SNP was runner up in the last election. For example, in West Aberdeen you show a required swing of 11.4%. However, even if that swing ocurred from Lib to SNP the constituency would still be won by the Tories, who were a close second to LibDem last time.
West Aberdeen is one of the hardest seats for SNP to win. 78% of the last vote went to Con/LibDem so it will take around a 30% swing for an SNP win.

And once again, whoever made that graphic forgets the 2011 Inverclyde by-election where New Labour’s 38.4% majority plummeted to 20.8% within the space of a year (in votes, a 14,416 majority to 5,838). True, it had a 45% turnout compared to a 63% for 2010, but still…

Ca canny as nothing can be taken for granted and the SNP needs to get all their activists out knocking on doors but fact remains that Miliband is very unpopular and will be monstered by the English based Better Together press cheerleaders.

“Complacency is the mortal enemy of any political party, and if SNP workers believe the battle is already won, it soon won’t be”

Precisely! It will only become reality is people work hard for it!

It won’t be about our case versus their case because they will have overwhelming media assistance. The media will try to crucify the SNP, making up stories if they can’t find anything real. At the same time Labour will be goody two shoes!

This must be coutered online, but perhaps this time more importantly offline to get to the less savvy people – inform and educate, as Stu said earlier.

I joined the SNP after the referendum and intent to get out and get stuck in!

This is probably the most important GE for Scotland since 1945. Let’s make sure benefits Scotland!

Well I don’t think anyone in the SNP will become complacent, drumming up people as we speak for leafleting etc. We know it will not be a walk in the park but one thing I know is that those many many people who have joined now will work their hearts out to get as many SNP MP’s into Westminster.

I agree with the SNP, we can’t get complacent, we must fight for every seat.
We need to target seats like Willie Bain’s and push harder to get every foul snout troughing Labour MP out of Scotland.
May I suggest our own wee reminder leaflet of what people like Jimmy Hood said about Scotland inhabitants during the Indy referendum?
If Labour slide in the polls UK wide. I have a feeling that more Labour supporters will jump ship and vote SNP to protect themselves and Scotland.

What matters on General Election day is the electoral tide. Those seats polled will show how others seats not polled will probably be faring. I expect them to be showing broadly similar trends. Very few seats buck the national (scottish) trend as can be seen from 2010 results or the 2011 Holyrood election.

Its a perfect storm of Tories in power doing what they always do, LibDems betraying their own vote and a weak Labour leader stealing the Tories clothes and then getting into bed with them through the referendum to threaten and belittle their most faithful of voters after having already moved the party so far to the right that its no longer recognisable. The Tories can claim to have been held back by the LibDems but then face votes going to UKIP. Maybe not enough for UKIP to win, but enough to split the vote as disaffected English voters of all colours flock to them. Both Labour and Tory have the same problem. Unless they scare the electorate or distract them with some seismic event leading to a polarisation of the vote through fear, they could end up pushed out if the ‘smaller parties’ did well enough to form a rainbow coalition. Nobody’s first choice but if the big two can’t or won’t make a deal (wishing to risk a second poll) they could be usurped and put on the back foot. To avoid this they do have some options. Agreements on not splitting the vote to let other parties in, agreements on coalition arrangements etc. But this, unusually, will have to be done now, secretively, behind closed doors. Nigh on impossible when all and sundry know it must happen and will see the obvious results. The internecine squabbling will reach fever pitch and we could see Labour, in particular, rip itself apart before a vote is cast. With about 12 weeks to go, and the propaganda machine barely warmed up its hard to say what will really happen. Tories look to be gaining votes at Labour expense and UKIP likewise in England. Tories might lose some to UKIP but Labour have the potential to lose 40 seats to SNP. In the referendum we peaked to early and Brown snatched it with his complete nonsense at the last minute. This time he’s come in at the start of the campaign, last time they had a high starting point and steadily lost it. This time the only way is up. Will Scots fall for the ‘underdog’ nonsense, ‘Vow II’ or see it as it really is, having already had their eyes opened?

It is always being promoted that Lab/Lib voters may increasingly have voted SNP for ‘local’ (Holyrood) elections but stay true for the ‘important Westminster one.

Pollsters and the parties never seemed to consider that it might be the other way around. That they were in fact increasing numbers of SNP voters who lent their vote to Lab/Lib ‘to keep the tories out’, feeling that the SNP would not be able to take the FPTP seat.

After the 2012 election that was clearly no longer the case. Hence they now have the confidence to vote positively rather than for the least worst.

Wonder what the constitutional implications of a grand coalition of mainly English MPs with SNP, NI parties, PC and Greens sat on opposing benches – England in government, Celtic nations in opposition, UK in tatters

These polls are only part of a series of polls. The first one concentrate on areas where Yes were in a majority on 18th September. Other seats will be polled too. However areas that did have a No majority (some just) will have a Yes majority is some of the parliamentary seats within the No majority local authority.

We take nothig for granted. Only hard graft and a steely resolve will make these polls a reality on 8th May. An awful lot of hard work to be done in the interim. If we achieve even half of this then it will represent a seismic shift in Scottish politics.

But it won’t happen if we think it’s in the bag. Let’s get to it people. Let’s make the prediciton a reality. Let’s kick the troughers out and put in their place a party that will put the people of Scotland first and not, as Labour have done for generations, put themselves and their party first.

With hard work we can make it happen. Feel the breeze… feel the wind of change…

It just hasn’t sunk in with Labour, who seem to have only one distinctive policy – “Vote Labour to keep the Tories out”, that a huge number of people in Scotland, certainly far more than ever before, really don’t care whether they get a Labour government that they didn’t vote for or a Conservative government that they didn’t vote for. I never thought I would ever say such a thing but David Cameron seems the better of a bad choice.

meanwhile, here’s ed somebody talking about bill somebody, on behalf of some party that will no doubt send another ed and his imperial masters on a north-bound train to talk to an ever-diminishing and select group of reluctant fans about the subtleties of moral capitalism and good guy producers. it’s what we’ve been screaming out for in scotland’s heartlands for decades and just shows that maggie’s great listening tour has been a wonderful success, even it never took place. cue 10m30 and rolling (down a hill, backwards)…http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/b0520945/newsnight-03022015

A note to wee Wullie Bain: We’ve not forgotton about you, we’re not concentrating our efforts elsewhere, we’re coming for you sunshine, we’re hot on your heels, breathing right doon your neck, we’re gona make it a cleansweep in Glasgow, you might be content with 46% child poverty in your area but we’re not and come the 7th of May the people will have their vengeance.

I did read that earlier, but have been bouncing between sites/pages/topics for a wee while and, being above a certain age, my grey stuff takes a bit of a pounding from the MSM, leading to short term memory issues, like … why am I typing this, again?

What we are doing appears to be working. SO KEEP ON DOING IT! Keep on keeping on, don’t give your enemy any chance.

Don’t be surprised by the depths the ESTABLISHMENT will sink to to protect their system. The EBC, government agencies and MSM will do and say anything for their paymasters. ALL CASUALTIES AND DAMAGE ACCEPTABLE. FULL STEAM AHEAD.

It is always being promoted that Lab/Lib voters may increasingly have voted SNP for ‘local’ (Holyrood) elections but stay true for the ‘important Westminster one.

Pollsters and the parties never seemed to consider that it might be the other way around. That they were in fact increasing numbers of SNP voters who lent their vote to Lab/Lib ‘to keep the tories out’, feeling that the SNP would not be able to take the FPTP seat.

After the 2012 election that was clearly no longer the case. Hence they now have the confidence to vote positively rather than for the least worst.

This was always the big, massive risk to the red tories – that people voting SNP would eventually get used to it! Many traditional Labour voters have been experimenting by voting SNP in recent years. It’s only a matter of time (helped by “events” of course, such as the referendum) until those experimenters jump ship completely. If they were happy with the red tories, they would never have voted SNP in the first place (ever).

The red tories are not so much being beaten in their heartlands by the SNP at the moment – it looks more like they are being replaced!

Keep up the pressure,inform, educate. It’s there to be won, let us not snatch defeat, form the jaws of victory; through complacency and over confidence, that has been their Achilles heel and we have learned as much.

O/T I watched the first episode of Outlander last night on an online site – which was riddled with intrusive ads so won’ t go there again!

But it is abundantly clear that the BBC would never show this series anywhere near a referendum or election. It features a group of Scottish “freedom fighters” hounded by redcoats.
Not the sort of history our imperial masters approve of!

During the interview at the Edinburgh book festival, the writer Diana Galbadon, said that Sony had tried unsuccessfully for three months to get a British TV company to take a licence to show it. None did. That was in August last year. Meanwhile it’s been shown all over the world.

So Labour’s latest ‘weaponisation’ of Gordon Brown with his Spud gun seems to be off target so far as most recent Scottish polling suggests. His part in the Westminster debate today warning against the evils of EVEL in creating a virtual English Parliament within WM when it already functions as such – appears redundant. Better Together eh?

Watching Mr Balls on Newsnight last night making a surname of himself was an embarrassment.

When all this comes to pass i.e. an SNP landslide will the BBC and MSM suddenly wake up to the new reality of Scottish politics or will they continue to peddle the same pro union / SNP BAD propaganda in the hope that it is only a temporary blip.

I can accept that papers will be biased but I resent being lied to.

I resent even more the BBC abusing its position and power.

It has been said the first casualty of war is truth. It now seems that the democratic process has joined war in this process.

Something else to remember is that Labour doesn’t usually have to fight these seats – a token effort is all they’ve needed to win in the past, so their local information will be practically non-existent, and they’re going to have to put significant resources towards winning these seats – resources they would usually be using to win seats in England. And not just financial resources, but manpower as well – there’ll be no bussing up activists from England en masse because they’re needed in England to try and keep the Green and UKIP surges at bay in their own constituencies.

Meanwhile, the SNP has more money than ever, more members than ever, and more information than ever. We can afford to fight 59 separate campaigns – Labour’s branch office can’t.

If we can replicate the activity on the Yes side during the last weeks of the referendum, then Scotland is our oyster.

IMO, the closer we get to a GE with these poll figures holding, the more likely a Con/Lab coalition becomes. It will be sold as “a National Government to save Our Nation”; Union Jack waving Tories will swallow it, and the Old Labour types will do to, due to their instinctIVE LOATHING O

Yes these Westminster MP’s loss their seat to the SNP (GOOD RIDENCE) I bet you when they loss there Westminster seat we will see these same individuals running for the Scottish parliament they’re not going to give up on that fat pay cheque or easy street for nothing, I like to calls these individuals ME ME ME ME because that is all they care about how can anyone put Party before their country. We as a country should remember these MP who lost their seats, at the Scottish elections Vote SNP 1st Greens 2nd Radical Independence 3rd.

Well well, squeeky bum time right enough. I’ve been wondering what was going on wae that big numty Broon being rolled oot early. Just said that to my husband yesterday, the peripatetic cadaverous one aint working, and now Broon wae more vows. I reckoned that private polling must be dire for this to have happened. Must reflect Ashcroft’s polling.

Can’t say that I’ve any sympathy for the red tories, it’s all their own work. Standing side by side with the blue tories and decrying your own country and people was never going to be a vote winner. Hell mend them. They’ve kept Scotland back for far to long, time to get rid of them.

Thinking of joing the SNP I could always help with leafleting or something. This is still a fight for our country, let’s not lose sight of that.

“Jim, Jim, Magrits on the phone asking what are we going to do?”
“Its okay Kezzie, Im working on a plan right now!”
“A plan to save Scottish Labour?”
“No a plan to help me work out how the hell I can get into Holyrood before May!”

Chas @10:41
All things being equal.
The swing in Aberdeenshire West would give the SNP 13,238 the LDs 10,326, The Tories are on 13,678. Reduce the take from the LDs and take votes from the other parties and a win is entirely possible.

The Labour Party lost Scotland when they joined the Tories in the Better Together campaign.

Labour and their core voters had a successful relationship. Vote for us and we will look after you. It was a partnership built on trust.

The Labour Party including Jim Murphy and Jackie Baillie all got into bed with the Tories. They were blissfully ignorant of the consequences that an orgy of mutual master nation Ukok politics would have on the relationship with their core voters.

The BT love affair ended and Labour tried to persuade their core voters that it was merely a one night stand. They even tried to renew and upgrade their Vows, with a promise of an even more exciting future, if they stuck together.

Labour want to spend billions on Trident, and do very little to relieve the suffering of the poor and vulnerable people in our country.

Labour’s core voters do not trust the Party anymore and the relationship is coming to an end. These voters have found a new trustworthy partner called the Scottish National Party.

Gillie – re the BBC – Jim Murphy is busy trotting out his current hate message ‘vote SNP get Tory’ despite being proven wrong at length here on Wings.

Commenting on the Ashcroft poll, MR HI JUMPY said – “…the only people who will benefit from these polls are David Cameron and the Tories. It is a simple fact that the single biggest party gets to form the next government. The more seats the SNP get from Labour, the more likely it is the Tories who will be the biggest party and David Cameron will get into government through the back door. That would be a terrible outcome for Scotland but it’s what might happen if Scotland votes SNP.”

My labour mates are parroting this so I reckon it will be the main point of attacking from SLAB. Better get some leaflets out pointing the opposite. Have already been onto my local MSP. Btw Katy Clark is my MP so she may get a few more votes after voting against Trident, Austerity Cuts and Fracking. Not from me.

“Thinking of joing the SNP I could always help with leafleting or something.”

Can only speak for myself but I have never regretted joining the SNP (from Labour) long ago. Join and you will be allocated to a branch. Or just contact someone in the SNP locally wherever you are and come campaign too.

I have given up complaining to the BBC – but I now phone them up regularly to compliment them on having Jim Murphy on daily. More Jim please – as much as possible before may 7. It seems to be driving up the SNP vote very nicely and we are trying to get all 59 seats and with the BBC’s help we may be able to do it.

Here is the number – 03700100222 and select option 1

I wonder if he will even survive as branch leader until May. Knives and Ian Davidson’s bayonets will be getting sharpened after these polls. (Watch your back, Jim.)

Brian Taylor’s piece on the Beeb, titled “How is Killing the SNP Stone Dead Going” (or something like that) is a pretty honest review of Ashcroft’s poll tinged with a bit of humour. Needless to say he concludes “it” isn’t going all that well.

Listening to The Beattie farce right now and these polls have been mentioned just once. The sixth item right at the start. Right now we’re 46 minutes into the programme and as yet no discussion of the polls. Still, at least we know that when faced with Ebola it’s better to wear goggles as opposed to a visor.

1) A London Labour Government is no better than London Tory one for Scotland. We have implied that Labour is better for Scotland for too long
2) Scotland’s Tax base makes us comfortably self supporting and we do not rely on oil revenues. Scotland gets the same per capita share of oil revenues as the rest of UK.That means we get about 8% of our own oil revenue. If we are independent we get 100% and even at today’s lower prices that would be a huge bonus.
3)The press and the BBC are lying to us daily. Ask our voters to “look out for today’s lies”. We must destroy the credibility of the media rather than waste time trying to combat the daily lies

Am actually not really that surprised Renfrewshire East wasn’t included. Is a Tory peer really likely to want to do the Labour branch office leader as favour and carry out polling in seat when Murphy is still too feart to say if he’s standing or not?

You can see the way they think when their analysis has always been that Labour supporters are willing to vote SNP in Holyrood. Much more obvious logic would have been to recognise that SNP supporters felt compelled into voting Labour at Westminster to keep Tories out. This was a tactic without substance, but perhaps understandable.

All those so called Labour voters who voted Yes … were they perhaps not 2011 SNP supporters who voted Labour at WM in 2010? That makes more sense.

If you accept that 45% of voters (post LibDem collapse) are SNP, then that is where we still stand.

Also appreciating that SNP ‘loaned’ voters for WM was on the basis that there was a perceived difference between Lab and Con, should have been clear. It is now obvious you couldn’t get a fag paper between them in policy as they chase England’s ever more right wing agenda. Add to this their hand in hand approach to the referendum. Why should it surprise anyone that this loaning of votes to Labour is dead?

I’m going to stick my neck out and propose that the polls as they stand are just a measure of the way things have actually been for a few years. This is the starting position! With effort, even better things can be achieved by May with some hard work.

How much of this is a Scottish Project Fear backlash, especially the last two weeks of BBC BetterTogether vote NO ranting insanity from dudes like Murphy and ofcourse THE VOW shyste?

A lot of Scots are still quietly furiuos at the way they were treated by our imperial masters last Sept and its a long list of the extremely rich tory boys, their media and their troughing Slab ("Quizmaster" - Ed)s. Still, if you heard Ed Balls pityful melt down on BBC Newsnight last night, its almost certainly a Cameron Conservative win for our Englsh rulers in May.

I don’t know if it has been mentioned previously, but is there any chance that McTernan is involved in espionage for the ‘other team’…sabotage…counter-intelligence (yeah, now there’s a contradiction in terms)?

Since he came onboard, hasn’t there been a sharp decline on SLab popularity coupled with a major increase in buffoonery?

@ Derek fae Yell 12.40. Aye well, that’s me been and gone and done it. Joined the SNP. Never in all my rather long life have I ever even wanted to join any political party, but this is Scotland that we are fighting for, and I’m happy, as I was during the referendum, to do my bit.

I’m mibbies getting oan a bit fur chappin doors but I can dae something.Whit wiz thone auld WW1 poster. Your Country Needs You. Well so it diz, an I fur yin will no be found wanting.

Thanks to EBC ( Pacific Quay Branch ), smurph and to the one and only big Broon, your Vow mark 2 or whatever was just the wee push I needed to get oot there again.

There’s an interesting table in the Ashcroft poll where voters were asked if they’s heard from any political party in the last few weeks. Across the board, SNP activists are getting the message out better than their rivals (though the LibDems are working their seats hard too). Dundee West is the star.

I thought McGovern was standing down to spend more time with his large Commons pension? IOW he is gone regardless.

Increasingly I don’t know what I can do. I’m not joining the SNP, or any other party. That is just not me and I’d be in Dundee East that won’t need too much of a push to stay with Depute Hosie. I suppose we have to wait for RIC’s Spring conference to know what they will be doing. I hope something, even if we are just encouraging/ensuring people are registered.

I remember watching the first “Sunday Politics” after the Referendum, with Andrew Neil interviewing Alex Salmond. Eck quoted from “Bonnie Dundee”…”So tremble False Whigs at the hour o’ yer glee, for ye’ve no’ seen the last o’ ma bonnets an’ me!” It gave me goose bumps at the time, and I’m getting the same feeling now!

It occurs to me that one effect of these polls will be to increase the confidence of the rank-and-file SNP activists. If I was still living in/near Wishaw, and campaigning there (I never did campaign there in fact), the knowledge that 50% of a random sample of the people I was likely to meet had told a pollster that they intended to vote SNP would put a big spring in my step. It would make me approach people with openness and friendliness, not in the expectation of getting my face bitten off.

OK, I’ll be campaigning in Tweeddale. We haven’t seen an Ashcroft poll of that, though I’d be surprised if he didn’t do one because, well, Mundell and all that. I remember campaigning here in 2010. There was no spring in my step, and not just because I actually campaigned on a broken toe that year. We were going to get about 14% and I knew it.

2011 was different. I was getting smiles everywhere. We returned a constituency MSP. That was nice. I had been thinking that we’d be going back to the apologetic cringe of 2010 electioneering for 2015. But if Ashcroft turns up a poll that shows the SNP looking even like a strong challenger, It’s going to do wonders. If people are happy and confident, with good reason, they’re more persuasive.

can we nudge voters to tipping point by getting data like this through doors? I mean, you could see it as a risk that voters will see the SNP doing so well e.g. closing of ranks by Britnats, but in the poorest areas like Glasgow NE, I would have thought that many Labour voters, presented with data that huge numbers of their like-minded peers are planning not to vote Labour, will see no shame and no waste of their vote in moving to SNP.

The lesson I personally think the referendum taught us is that there is a risk in being sucked into an online echo chamber and overlooking the hundreds of thousands getting their information word of mouth, from councillors and MP’s and their pals lying their arses off to the locals, and from MSM propaganda.

Btw, I’m not an SNP member and would probably vote Green ideally, but FPTP will dictate that I vote SNP in Glasgow in May in order to a) get a pro Scotland MP, b) get a left of centre block of MP’s, and c) hopefully change the balance of power in westminster, damaging the hegemony of neo-liberals, private school millionaires and their lackies, and troughing career politicians

Am i right in thinking that whereas these polls are based on the opinions of 100% of those asked, elections maybe only 60% odd of eligible voters. (2010 was 63% in Scotland)

If so, and thinking optimistically that upwards of 95% of Yes voters will be voting and that 95% of them will probably be voting SNP, wouldnt that make an SNP vote share of 60 or even 70%?

If it is a 60% or so turnout in May and the above is a fair reflection, that would mean 1.6 million SNP votes to 0.9 million split among the rest, could a complete clean sweep of seats be on the cards for the SNP?

And if so, couldnt we just declare Independence on the strength of that?

A conversation with a NO voting workmate, who I had many a heated debate with, threw up a factor that few people have discussed. He told me that he had seen Nicola on the Marr show and was very impressed, he hated Salmond but would now vote SNP. I guess the pollsters don’t take this factor into account but could be huge when you think how many other voters said that they hated AS.

This great news, however, we cannot lose sight that it ain’t done, until it’s done.

We still have all the hard work to do, we are once more up against the dark forces, and they will be relentless right up to polling day. The only way we will produce results like these is to do the groundwork.

Truly scandalous reporting by the BBC of this seismic poll today. Despite every other headline accurately describing it as a potential wipeout in Labour Heartlands, the Labour propaganda wing are on pure damage limitation with their “Poll suggests political figures could lose seats to SNP” heading, with a pic of Dougie and Danny Alexander underneath.

Interesting to see how Unionist Quay will proceed from here as wall-to-wall coverage of their wee darling Murphy clearly hasn’t had the desired effect. Its clear though that they may well have become just as toxic a brand in Scotland as Labour themselves…

“guess the pollsters don’t take this factor into account but could be huge when you think how many other voters said that they hated AS.”

I must admit I thought at the time that all the demonising of AS by the BT lot and the MSM would come back to bite them.

The opposition to Indy used AS as the bogey man, because they didn’t really want people to look in detail at the issues. Superficially people may have been taken in by this propaganda, but deep down I think some NO voters saw it for what it was, but didn’t actually want to think too hard about the issues through fear, so conveniently used Salmond as the scapegoat, when discussing Indy.

Looking back I think a lot are embarrassed of how they voted, and can now use Salmond as the excuse to change their mind without losing face. e.g. “It wasn’t Indy I didn’t like, I just didn’t trust Salmond”.

I still hold out that Postal Voting is a curse that we need to try and reverse.

Think about it. Most postal voters will tick the box and get rid of it as soon as they can. That leaves a few weeks during which time there might be a seismic shift in opinions and information available. That’s what happened during IndyRef and it’s likely to happen again.

We should be working hard to reverse the number of postal voters that are registered and convince them that only by stepping through the door of a polling station can they guarantee that their vote will (probably) count.

It will also reduce the massive risk of postal vote fraud (at least a wee bit) and make it more difficult (although still not impossible) to steal the vote.

We also need to work on families who have relatives serving in the armed forces so that the military lads and lassies are PROPERLY educated on their rights in terms of how to vote rather than the apparent shambles of the IndyRef stitch-up that has been reported in the past.

Don’t trust the Electoral Commission to properly police or enforce this. They haven’t bothered their backsides so far and they are part of the Establishment.

There are other aspects of the IndyRef lessons-learned that I could add to this rant but, better just go and have a coffee instead.

Doug Daniel makes a valid point (11.56). The Accounting Unit’s resources are going to be stretched to breaking point. No doubt they will circle the wagons and rely on the BBC/Brit Media to do their dirty work.

I’d love to be a fly on the wall at UK Labours Scottish Branch Propaganda Machine at PQ today..

*Jackie’s gone into full shock/rage mode on seeing the polls – think Cruella de Vil in the car chase scene in original 101 Dalmatians (now 1001 Dalmatians after Jim promised more Dalmatians).

*Eleanor will be on her 50th FOI request to the NHS (in the hour).

*Tim Reid will be putting the finishing touches to a piece to camera on his Labour Red Rose Rosette Headed Note paper (just next the Red BBC Logo)

*Judith will be tinkering with the Weather Map – putting a Red Labour Rose watermark behind the nation. With glorious sunshine over all the food banks, and rain over all the Yes voting areas.

The list will be endless..lol. They’ll be in full melt down – having Red Sky Thinking Sessions on how to get Labours message across to the Nation – ignoring all the recent Polling.

I never watch the BBC News – haven’t done since Sept. Can’t suffer it. I do check the web site though and they can’t hide their sycophantic Labour outpourings. It’s funny that they are so unrepentant about it, it’s comical – BBC Charter my arse..

They’re like Labour’s own Vicky Pollard.. Always got the excuses for Labour lined up.. And now over to our Political Correspondent..

We found out during the referendum that the EC are both toothless and spineless creatures of the establishment. However ” ahem” general elections are different,so they tell us. They can’t come with new vows or whatever after postal voting has started because we are in “purdah” (now now, nae laughing at the back). I seem to remember when any of us complained that was the reason that was given out.

I’ll no haud ma breath as far as that’s concerned. They’re such liars, and just make the rules up, to suit themselves as they go along. It’s never the rules that apply to us however, just them.

Ah well, onwards and upwards folk. By they way, did they no win the referendum, wonder whit their problem is then?

First of all – credit where it’s due – another great piece from Stu.
If ever a man and a movement were made for each other, then this is surely it.

With the tide of European grass roots sentiment
on the turn against the Established wealthy power elite,
Scotland is in tune with the populations of the other countries of Europe.
From this we should take courage and belief.
We are on the right track.

Independence is neither an error of judgement nor an illusion.
But, one step at a time.
And GE15 is most definitely the next step on the road.

And our time has come – after 35 years of Thatcher’s
philosophy of choice, neo-Liberalism, –
corroding the fabric of our society
and leading to the most corrupt
political and business hierarchies ever seen.

It is now time to take the scalpel of our vote in hand,
and remove this stinking gangrenous bunch from power.

I keep hearing about so-called labour supporters now deciding to vote SNP, but to be honest about this would it now be better to say it’s our fellow Scots deciding to put their country before a political party.

I believe the labour party in Scotland aka ‘red tories’ really lost their support 2011 at the last Holyrood election and it would not surprise me if todays Ashcroft Poll’s are just the tip of the icebreg.

The idea that it may be possible to wipe out the unionist politicians from Scotland on May the seventh is maybe no-longer the stuff of dreams, Scotland has finally awoken from the “my vote does not matter bolloxs” of yesteryear.

And the GE of May 7th 2015 may be the starting point of a revitalised independent Scotland, but never the finish.

“I can only wonder how the senior Scottish (Labour) MP who reportedly told colleagues that they didn’t understand the fuss about mobilising members – because they have less than a hundred and “win every time” – is feeling this morning. Terrified I suspect, and with good reason.”

But beware the traps.
Never underestimate the British State.
There is nothing quite as nasty anywhere,
in a three piece suit.
For forty years and more, the Establishment has been feasting
at the carcass of the British Taxpayer.
That is about to end as the carcass has had enough.

With the feast of wealth and power coming to a close,
we will see the Westminster Establishment panic once more,
but even more than at Indy.

Then, we will see it in all its scheming, vicious fury,
as it lashes out – seeking survival.
The survival in Scotland, of the Unionist beast.

BTW. If you can start a war and cause 350,000 civilian deaths
and countless life changing injuries,
you can ‘influence’ an election without batting an eyelid.

Beware too, lest we overestimate our own abilities.
It is so easy to talk a good game at the breakfast table.
The true test is talking on the doorstep.
Now this may not be your forte, in which case,
find out quickly what it is you CAN do.
And do it.

To be an ACTIVE member of the Independence movement.
This should be our goal in GE15.

As for HQ – they too need to up their game by taking
the pensioners under their wing and looking after them better.
Just now, the elderly are easy meat for the Unionist predators.

When, oh when, oh when, are Nicola, Andrew and all the others at the top, going to do something, anything, about the Postal Voting system.
It’s a three goal start to the Unionists before the game has even kicked off!

The elderly/Postal Voting is a bee in my bonnet. Some of you might have noticed.

I used to like reading the Spectator, but their knee-jerk British nationalism over the past couple of years has addled their critical faculties and soured their writing. Only Alex Massie comes out well. The rest, from Charles Moore to Fraser Nelson, come across like blimpish Victorian gentlemen riled by the temerity of women seeking the vote.

Might be worth starting a sweepstake on what powers Slab are going to offer us now,if we just let them back in. I suspect they now know that the Brown effect, if there ever was one, has no credibility. That’s what happens when people don’t trust what you say. That’s the consequence of lying and treating the Scots like voting fodder for the masses in England.

Out at the doors the other night I had labour voters who didn’t know who their mp was (j hood) by the way . Every one of them though said they will be voting SNP in May , still don’t like polls though our canvass returns during the referendum were excellent and we all know how that went , there will be no complacency in our branch that I can gaurentee

Did me some good listening to BBC’s Glen Campbell on the radio trying his best to talk down the latest 4 polls suggesting, in Scotland, that the SNP are on track to securing a majority of seats in the GE.

“But it is abundantly clear that the BBC would never show this series anywhere near a referendum or election.

Don’t know if you noticed but I posted a couple of responses on an earlier thread that I got from emailing Sony Pictures yesterday.

Email trail was:

———————————Me – “I live in the UK and was wondering if and when Outlander will be shown over here. Is there a reason why it hasn’t been picked up already?”

Sony – “I believe you will hear news about this shortly.”

Me – “Waiting in anticipation, shortly as in weeks, months?”

Sony – “I would guess weeks.”
——————————-

So you never know.

BTW – Have watched all 8 episodes, and I do believe this would have made a big difference to the referendum. Which is pretty naff, but on the other hand we had to put up with the ‘Great British Bake Off/Spelling Bee/Sewing Bee/Railway Journeys (pick a word)’ for the months leading up to the vote. What’s good for the goose….

I noticed several posters referring to AS’s popularity.I know from personal experience that several members of my own family voted no based on this.He was given some extremely negative press and some of it stuck.

Why do you keep having a go at Nicola about postal votes? She has no control over them or the election/polling systems.

Elections are run by Independent Returning Officers in each local authority area according to the regulations given by the Electoral Commission. Scottish Govt has no control over that.

The rules in Scotland are exactly the same as for England Wales & Northern Ireland. It’s a General Election applicable to the whole of the UK & every one has to work to the same guidance from EC. If you want to hold someone responsible then that’s the Electoral Commission for flaws in the system or the Independent Returning Officer for flaws in the conduct of the election in each area not Nicola Sturgeon. Leave it out please-she doesn’t deserve your ire.

@man and boy /lollysmum
Needs to be made illegal for any party activist to “help” in any way with completion of postal voting forms. Or to go into any care homes with the intention of “helping” by filling in the vote or taking them to post. Suspect this has been happening for ages. Possibly by more than one party. Hence the reason there hasn’t been action on this. Don’t know if it would be Holyrood, EC or the Westminster who would have responsibility.

Re SSP and Greens someone on twitter unfollowed me for politely suggesting that a split vote could see Dougie Alexander get in.

They are feeling miffed because there is no formal Yes alliance but as was pointed out it would require a change in the constitution.

I did ask a prospective SNP candidate at one of the hustings how they would deal with that situation and he said that getting a strong voice in WM, would increase the power of Holyrood and therefore have a positive effect on all the parties who want to see that.

It’s tricky but I really don’t think that the SNP are being triumphalist – it is just the truth that they have a much better chance of getting in with FPTP.

I would be more than happy to support the other parties in Hoyrood but when I said that I was accused of being arrogant

Interesting. Does accept the BT association with the Tories, and taking voters for granted, have been failings.

It still misses the big points. The BT campaign was a filthy underhand affair, and Labour have been permanently tainted by that. Also, Scots want DevoMax (the real deal), that has been long established. Pretending to offer it, then acting to minimise the actual powers suggested by Smith, is despicable.

Sorry Labour, it’s no longer about engaging with voters, or appearing too right wing to Scottish eyes … you have become charlatans and shysters … now accept the consequences.

(1) A canvass by members of progressive parties to ascertain voting intentions.

(2) Those who definitely will not vote SNP but Labour will be visited by SSP members to see if they’ll vote for a real socialist party.

(3) Similarly those who will vote Conservative or Lib-dem will be asked if they will support the Green Party, with an emphasis on its commitment to localism, self-reliance, stewardship of the environment and responsibility.

(4) Those who say they’ll vote Green or SSP will be asked by SNP members if they would consider voting for them at the GE.

I posted this yesterday after a couple of your earlier posts on the same thread. You may not have seen it.

“The SSP and Greens have to start somewhere, I agree that in 2015 they should lend their vote to the SNP as that is the best chance they have in getting real representation in Scotland 2016 and in an Independent Scotland.

Also it is not the case that they will “steal” votes from the SNP in any seats they do choose to stand in. They are just as likely to “steal” Labour votes.

Calm down folks, if the SNP vote doesn’t budge you have no problems. I’m an SSP member and I will absolutely vote SNP in 2015.

Please pay attention to this though, when it comes to 2016 the chances of the smaller parties purely rest with the regional or list vote.

This has a very peculiar way of working. The more list votes you get the lower the weighting of your regional vote.

For example in 2011 SNP got 45% of the list vote winning 53 seats, yet 44% of the regional vote only gave them 16 seats. In contrast Labours 32% of the list vote gave them 15 seats, but only 26% of the regional vote gave them 22 seats!

If SNP voters gave their regional votes to the pro Yes parties then you could almost wipe out Labour and guarantee pro Yes, left leaning representatives in Holyrood.

I believe the list vote for the SNP will be so high that you will be lucky to get 5 seats on the regional vote, however using your second vote for the SSP or Green could get at least an additional 15 to 20 pro Yes MSP’s in Holyrood at the expense of Lib/Lab/Con.

Thanks to the Project Fear campaign we were subjected to during the referendum, the populace has their eyes open as never before to the lies and misinformation habitually used by politicians serving their own rather than their consituents’ interests.

Independence aside – although I am a firm YES voter – the SNP appears to be a party that deals with the facts rather than propaganda, quietly gets on with the job – and does what works best for the vast majority of Scots.

We trust them to represent us, to fight for us and to protect us.

We don’t trust any of the Westminster parties to do any of these things. There’s nothing to choose between them.

These polls represent – to me anyway – the complete loss of trust and patience we have as a nation with the status quo of Westminster politics.

I actually think it’s a tragedy that England doesn’t have anyone they can vote for who could be said to be as trustworthy.

Hopefully they’ll vote Green. But then, the English haven’t had their eyes opened like we have.

Watching Brian Taylor on BBC he too seemed to choke on a lot of feathers and throw in a lot of caveats before admitting the polls are saying what we already know here, that people are beginning to trust that the SNP are the only people to stand up for Scotland and they are truly shocking for Labour and they don’t know how to change it with less than a hundred days to go. Despite all those pleas and free “Vow” press conferences for the benefit of Labour and the BBC with Brian in the front row in his bright red tie the threats and pleas aren’t working. Neither Long may it continue.

It’s really worse than that for in a very large majority of votes Red Tory members either vote with the Blue Tories, abstain or are proposing motions anyone would expect to be coming from the Blue Tories.

In todays news we have such headlines as, IFS Says, ‘Worst of cuts yet to come’. and remember the Red Tories, at best, agree with the Blue Tories and have said if elected they too will carry on the austerity policies and in some cases even promised to out Tory the Blue Tories with bigger cuts.

Jim Murphy is paying £25 per session for people to hand out leaflets & chap a few doors

Well that’s the English Labour members paying for their branch manager’s re-election campaign again. For going by the Branch Office cut-price, (on offer), membership fees they are stony broke just now.

Huh! You think that’s bad? You want to try it with a Papillon on yer lap. Same dangers but with much more teeth, claws and much. much more hair. Not only that but, as a breed they tend to be hyper and don’t go off to sleep in the corner like other dogs. No matter what you are doing, so are they, (and I do mean, everything.

I listened to lunchtime politics on Radia Scotchland. They had Michael Connarty on. Someone asked if he had paid for his own Irn Bru! LOL He is going to get booted out big style. What came across when he was talking was that he just sounded like a big ned who wanted his baw back!

JimW let the cat out of the bag when he wrote, “David Cameron seems the better of a bad choice.”
How many SNP supporters agree with him?

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