China property bust may pass quickly

China’s stage of economic development means any property-market bust following the current boom may prove temporary, according to economists at the Bank of Japan and UBS.

China today shares characteristics of Japan’s real-estate boom of the 1970s, when the nation quickly recovered from a slump, according to a Bank of Japan research paper. The Chinese economy will be able to keep expanding even in the event of a property contraction, said UBS’s Beijing-based Wang Tao.

The view contrasts with that of Kenneth Rogoff, the Harvard University professor who said last month China may see growth plunge to as low as 2% in the aftermath of the collapse of a “debt-fuelled bubble” within 10 years.