Satellite loops and upper air data display northwest flow aloft over Midwest, with the upper trof drifting to the east. Upper trof continues to provide enough support to trigger flurries over area, that should last into the mid morning hours, when trof moves through and weak high pressure builds in. Expect low clouds to lift and move to the east with drier air in low levels through morning. However in the afternoon upper level clouds ahead of the next system will fill area in so mostly cloudy conditions will be rule.

Not much has changed in the forecast this morning. Cold temperatures and a few rounds of precipitation...with this weekend being more wet and cloudy than anything else...some snow, some rain, some wintry mix, and some melting. After the precip moves through, another deep wave makes its way into the conus, bringing a lot of bitterly cold Arctic air into the Midwest for next week.

Northwesterly flow over the country is starting to modify with the wave off the Pacific northwest coast...going more zonal into the weekend. As the surface high slides east, winds become more southerly, setting up a warm air advection regime ahead of the next precip chances. A quick wave moving through the zonal flow makes its way into Illinois for later Saturday, bringing a quick round of snow, particularly to the northern third of the state. Some light accumulations may be possible mainly along and north of I-74 through Saturday night. The bigger wave accompanies a developing sfc low moving out of the Southern Plains for Sunday. Precip chances carry over and increase into Sunday afternoon/evening as the best dynamics move into place in the Midwest. The warm air advection regime set in place for Saturday will bring more moisture for the precip...and the trend will be to shift from snow on Sunday morning...to rain...from south to north, throughout the day. The transition from snow to rain will likely be accompanied by a wintry mix as the warm air pushes back against the cold air in place over the region. That rainfall on Sunday will erode the snow totals overall with the melting, as well as create a sharp cut off between keeping snow on the ground/no snow depth by late Sunday afternoon. Change over back to snow from northwest to southeast as the night carries on and into the morning hours, resulting in an inch or so of accumulation from Fulton co over to Bloomington and points north. Keep in mind that with the sharp cut off with the rain/snow likely to move...adjustments in the forecast will make the difference between an inch or snow on the ground...and closer to 3 where the precip never changed over. Much of central Illinois may light accumulations, but limited by rainfall.

Beyond the precip issues with the weekend...cold air is coming for next week. Highs by midweek already showing as teens and low 20s for Wednesday through the end of the week, as a frigid Arctic airmass moves into the Continental U.S.. a major difference in the models in handling a quick shortwave midweek, with the European model (ecmwf) in more amplified flow pushing the precip further south than the GFS. End result is some low chance pops for now, with little confidence in timing or placement.

Infrared imagery still shows cloud deck over central Illinois with only little movement through nightime hours. Has been some gradual slow raising of ceilings, and so expect that to slowly continue, plus with some drier air, will allow conditions in the afternoon to improve to mid deck conditions. Good vsb expected.