San Francisco 49ers vs. Houston Texans Free Pick 10/6/13

NFL Football: Sunday, October 6, 2013 at 8:30 pm (Candlestick Park)

TV: NBC

The San Francisco 49ers and the Houston Texans face off on Sunday Night in San Francisco in a week 5 NFL battle of Super Bowl hopefuls.

After losing in the Super Bowl last year the San Francisco 49ers are hoping to make a return trip but at 2-2 they are already two games back in the NFL West. The 49ers have plenty of star power but the offense has sputtered. The Niners offense is averaging 19.8 points and 331.2 yards per game. QB Colin Kaepernick has completed just 58.1 percent of his passes with five touchdowns and four interceptions while being sacked 10 times and he has also rushed for 140 yards. Frank Gore is averaging 4.8 yards per carry with two touchdowns and Kendall Hunter is averaging 3.6 yards per carry reaching the endzone twice. Anquan Boldin has been the 49ers best receiver thus far catching 24 passes with two touchdowns, Vernon Davis has 11 catches and three touchdowns, and Kyle Williams has nine catches. Defensively the 49ers are allowing 23.8 points and 299.8 yards per game with three interception, 12 sacks, and three fumble recoveries. NaVorro Bowman has 34 tackles, Ahmad Brooks has 25 tackles, and Donte Whitner has 22 tackles. The 49ers rank 19th in points allowed but just fourth in yards allowed which translates into their offense leaves their defense in bad spots way too often.

Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports

The Houston Texans were hoping this would be the year they went from a team that makes the playoffs to a team that makes it to the Super Bowl but thus far they haven’t played like it. The Texans opened up winning their first two games but have lost their last two including a crushing come from behind loss at home last week to Seattle. The Texans offense is averaging 22.5 points and 410.2 yards per game with the yards ranking them fifth but the points ranking 19th meaning they don’t convert on their chances. Matt Schaub has completed 65.5 percent of his passes with eight touchdowns and six interceptions while being sacked 11 times. Arian Foster is averaging 3.8 yards per carry with just one touchdown and he has 14 catches with another score and Ben Tate is averaging 6.7 yards per carry with nine receptions. Andre Johnson has 34 catches to lead the Texans, DeAndre Hopkins has 20 catches and one touchdown, and Owen Daniels has 18 catches and three touchdowns. Defensively the Texans allow 26.2 points and a NFL best 254.2 yards per game with two interceptions, 13 sacks, and three fumble recoveries. Brian Cushing has 3 tackles, J.J. Watt has 25 tackles and 3.5 sacks, and Whitney Mercilus has 19 tackles and 3.5 sacks. The Texans stats aren’t those of a .500 team, but it is their minus for turnover ratio that makes them one.

San Francisco is 16-7-1 against the spread in their last 24 home games, 4-1 against the spread after allowing less than 15 points their previous game, and 5-13-2 against the spread following a win of more than 14 points. Houston is 1-4 against the spread following a game which they didn’t cover the spread, 0-5 against the spread in their last five road games, and 0-5 against the spread in their last five games overall.

Make no mistake about it, this game is going to be played between the 20’s and not just every point, but every yard is going to be earned. The total is adjusted to the low side but I still have this one coming in under and that is my free pick. I have a pick on who will cover the spread and I will post that NFL pick in the Premium Area.

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