Projected Invites, 2011 Portsmouth Invitational Tournament

With the 2011 Portsmouth Invitational Tournament only a month away, it's time to take an in-depth look at this year's NCAA senior class and figure out what the field might look like.

The PIT will be held, as always, immediately after the NCAA Final Four in Portsmouth, Virginia. Besides being well attended by NBA executives, the invitational is also a popular destination for European teams. It's a great place for them to get a first look at some of the best American players who might be starring in their leagues over the next few years.

If you've ever wondered what it would look like if virtually every NBA team personnel member, agent and runner in America came together in a tiny high school gym for four days, this is your spot.

The organizers attempt to assemble the 64 best NCAA senior draft prospects in the country for an 8-team, 12-game tournament held over a four-day period. The 59th edition of the tournament will be conducted this year from April 6th to April 9th.

Since the NBA has decided to continue with a combine format (May 18-22 in Chicago with media days on May 19-20, according to NBA Senior Vice President, Basketball Communications Tim Frank), instead of having prospects work out in a competitive 5-on-5 setting like they used to in the NBA pre-draft camp days, an event like Portsmouth is the only significant way a prospect can help his draft stock outside of impressing teams in individual workouts.

Unfortunately, due to financial reasons, NBA teams seem to have cut back on the number of private workouts the conduct in the months of June and July, focusing more on group workouts, like we saw in New Jersey and Minnesota last year. We expect that trend to increase once again.

With the status of the Vegas Summer League still up in the air, the PIT could hold greater importance than usual for both NBA and international teams. Due to the impending lockout, there won't be many opportunities to evaluate a large group of prospects in a convenient setting such as Portsmouth this year.

In years past, seniors could elect to skip the PIT in hopes of receiving an invite to the more prestigious NBA Pre-Draft camp. Since shifting to the NBA Combine format, however, the NBA has decreased the number of overall players invited to Chicago and put a bigger emphasis on securing the attendance of lottery prospects , even if only for the purpose of conducting athletic tests, measurements and interviews, (both for NBA teams and media) which wasn't always the case in years past.

Fifteen of the 53 players invited to the NBA Combine last year were seniors, down from 19 in 2009. It will be interesting to see how the widely anticipated lockout will affect this year's crop, as a large number of underclassmen electing to return to school would likely cause more seniors to be invited to the Combine (and ultimately be drafted) in their place.

Unfortunately for Portsmouth, the NBA only elected to invite one player from its tournament to the Combine last year: Mikhail Torrance. As we pointed out at the time, electing to reward players who declined their Portsmouth invite by bringing them to the Combine (and removing the element of playing your way into Chicago for PIT standouts) probably doesn't send the best message to players (and their agents) about the benefits of attending and being evaluated by NBA teams at the all-senior draft camp.

Ultimately, it may not even matter. Luck (or fate?) appears to play just as big a part in the draft process as anything else. Last year, Landry Fields attended the PIT but was not invited to Chicago. Now he's one of the best rookies in the NBA. Jeremy Evans, on the other hand, wasn't invited to Portsmouth or the NBA Combine but was drafted and continues to cash checks from the Utah Jazz on the 1st and 15th of every month.

While debates about the value of Portsmouth, the format of the event and whether top senior prospects should attend continue to rage, NBA teams will still make the trek to Southern Virginia, and players will continue to emerge from here and make NBA rosters year after year.

How to make the PIT more worthwhile is something NBA teams and the League itself will need to discuss and act upon internally, but it's clear that this remains an event that anyone who is serious about the NBA draft process must attend.

Notes on Our Suggested List:

-This is not the official list made by the committee. It's a list of our own personal suggestions and observations about who will (and who should) be invited, based on the games we've watched this year and the conversations we've had with NBA personnel.

This is going to be the eighth draft we've covered, making this group of seniors the most watched class by DraftExpress ever. Many of these players are guys we started watching in high school.

 The official list should come out about four or five days before the tournament kicks off. There are still a number of roster spots left to be filled, according to the PIT.

Expected to Decline Invites:

Historically, there are approximately 20 seniors each year who either decline their invitation early on (which is their right) or cancel at the last minute  something no one likes to see because of the unnecessary hassles and expenses involved.

It's often debated how much it helps or hurts a prospect to participate but declined invites happen regardless. This is something we've accounted for in our own projection by dropping the top 15 seniors from the list, thereby creating spots for players who will likely value (and benefit more from) the exposure of this event. Here are the top 15 players currently residing on our NCAA senior rankings.

Since we are ranking the best senior draft prospects, and not necessarily the best seniors, NBA upside is valued over production at times. Ideally we like to see both from a player, but someone who has NBA-caliber size and athleticism for his position demonstrates a coveted skill set , even inconsistently, and appears to have upside to continue to improve, will often garner an invite to see what they can do in a new setting against better competition.

 The pool of players was distributed into four categories, according to position.