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Wednesday, January 20, 2016

FOOTBALL NEWS after CONFERENCE SEMIFINAL PLAYOFFS

The NFL playoffs continue with only
four teams still alive for the title, after four games last weekend
were all decided by a touchdown or less.

Enjoy,

The Fugitive Commissioner of the FFHL

NFL

PLAYOFF RESULTS – CONFERENCE SEMIFINALS

For last weekend’s games, all of the home teams were favored
ATS. That is not considered unusual, since the home teams this year
were the #1 and #2 seeds in each conference.
All of the home teams won their games straight up, by either six
or seven points.
However, the favorites ended up only 2-2 ATS again this week, the
same results as last week.

AFC
SATURDAY, JANUARY 16TH

#6 Pittsburgh +7h at #1 Denver -7h
RESULTS: DEN 23, PIT 16
The PIT Steelers supposedly had almost everything going against
them in this game. QB Roethlisberger was injected with pain
medication before the game and their best WR and RB were out. But
Pittsburgh led 10-9 at halftime and was still ahead 13-12 after an
exchange of field goals in the 3rd quarter.
And the Steelers were on the march in the 4th quarter, trying to
extend the lead, but fumbled at the Denver 35-yard line with 10
minutes remaining in the game, after which the DEN Broncos went on a
13-play, 65-yard TD drive that ate up seven minutes of clock. The
two-point conversion was good, and Denver led 20-13 with 3 minutes to
go.

Handicappers: all of a sudden, the game is getting interesting
ATS, but Pittsburgh is still covering ATS by ½ point.

Pittsburgh’s next drive stalled at their own 45-yard line and
they faced 4th-and-5, decided to go for it with only 2 minutes left,
but failed to convert and possession went back over to the Broncos on
downs. Denver then played it conservatively and settled for a 45-yard
FG to extend the lead to 23-13 to make it a “two-score” game with
0:53 showing on the clock (and now Denver was actually covering ATS).

On the ensuing possession, the Steelers marched quickly down the
field with completions of 22, 7, and 22, but there were only a
precious 19 seconds left, so they decided to kick a 47-yard FG and
then try for an onside kick. The field goal was good – Pittsburgh
now trailed by seven (and was back to covering ATS by the hook). The
onside kick failed, and Denver hung on for the victory, but failed to
cover ATS.

#5 Kansas City +4h at #2 New England -4h
RESULTS: NE 27, KC 20
The smack talk after this game was how Kansas City could waste so
much of the clock at the end of the game. Trailing 27-13 with 6½
minutes to go and all of their timeouts remaining, the KC Chiefs
burned 5:16 of clock in their 16-play, 80-yard TD drive to get within
seven points (it took at least 25 seconds between plays on eight of
the plays in this drive). Kansas City was trailing only 27-20, but
there was only a minute remaining in the game. The ensuing onside
kick failed and New England was easily able to run out the clock to
secure the victory.

Chiefs’ HC Andy Reid has a history of poor clock management, and
this game showed a weakness. Going back to 1998 and looking at 2,111
games with a similar situation as in this NE-KC game (that is, under
7 minutes remaining in a game, trailing by 9 to 17 points), only one
time did it take longer than Andy Reid’s Chiefs to score a TD.

NFC
SUNDAY, JANUARY 17TH

#6 Seattle +2 at #1 Carolina -2
RESULTS: CAR 31, SEA 24
The CAR Panthers led 14-0 within the first four minutes of the
game after a “Pick 6”, and were ahead 31-0 at the intermission.
But the SEA Seahawks made an interesting game of it, scoring two TD’s
in the first half of the 3rd quarter, then going for broke with a
successful fake punt from their own 22-yard line in the 3rd quarter
(sending a message to the Panthers that they were serious about
winning the game), and then actually scoring another TD in the fourth
quarter with six minutes left to trail only 31-21, and then kicking a
36-yard FG with 1:12 on the clock to trail only 31-24, still having a
chance to tie the game in regulation. But the onside kick was
unsuccessful, ending the Seahawks’ impressive comeback attempt.

A lot of things happened in this game, but in the fourth quarter a
strange play gave Arizona the lead, 17-13, with 3:44 remaining in
regulation. Packers’ CB Damarious Randall, who moments earlier had
made a key interception in the end zone, deflected a pass intended
for AZ Cardinals’ WR Larry Fitzgerald inside the 5-yard line and
the ball sailed into the end zone and into the hands of another
receiver, Arizona’s Michael Floyd, for a 9-yard touchdown.
The GB Packers took the ensuing kickoff but went nowhere and
turned the ball over on downs, which subsequently set up a FG for
Arizona to increase the Cardinals’ lead to 20-13 with only 1:55 to
play (and now the game was TIED against the spread).

The Packers were not done.

With 55 seconds to go, Green Bay was pushed back into a 4th-and-20
at its own 4-yard line. In desperation, QB Aaron Rodgers scrambled
and threw a mini-“Hail Mary” sixty
yards to WR Jeff Janis at the Arizona 36-yard line. A penalty
pushed it back to the 41, and then Rodgers threw an incomplete,
leaving only 5 seconds on the clock – time for one last play.

And
it was another “Hail Mary” completion – to Jeff Janis, this
time in the end zone for a TD to tie the score and send the game into
overtime.

THE COIN “FLIP”

The coin flip for overtime was a coin TOSS, as the coin didn’t
flip (probably because the ceremonial coin was nearly the size of a
manhole cover). Green Bay lost the flip, but the referee ruled that
it needed to be re-tossed, because the coin didn’t turn over even
once. The Packers were not allowed to change their call for the
second flip, and they lost the second flip as well. Arizona elected
to get the ball first, scored a TD in three plays and the game was
over without the Packers’ offense being able to touch the ball. The
Cardinals won by only six points and lost ATS.

[Editorial Comment: This overtime rule needs to be changed so that
both teams’ offenses get a chance, at least for playoff games. More
on this in the summer.]

Green Bay WR Jeff Janis had only logged two receptions in the
whole regular season, but due to injuries to wide receivers Davante
Adams (out for the game) and Randall Cobb (chest injury in 1st
quarter), Janis was called into duty. On the day, he grabbed 7
receptions for 145 yards and two TD’s.

PLAYOFFS - CONFERENCE FINALS

The #1 and #2 seeds in both conferences advanced to the conference
championship games. One of the #2 seeds is actually favored ATS on
the road – New England Patriots over the Denver Broncos.

NFC
#2 Arizona +3 at #1 Carolina -3

PREVIEW:
Last year, the AZ Cardinals had to travel to Charlotte, NC without
their starting QB Carson Palmer. This year, Palmer is looking forward
to the matchup that he missed in 2014 playoffs.

AFC
#2 New England -3 at #1 Denver +3
PREVIEW:
Brady vs. Manning (old guy not showing his age vs. old guy Peyton…
well, you decide).
See Quiz Question at end of newsletter.

SUPER BOWL ODDS

According to www.fivethirtyeight.com, using an ELO-based
simulation (*), following were the percentage chances projected for
each team to win the Super Bowl before Wild Card weekend (far right),
then after the Wild Card games last weekend (middle column), and then
after last weekend’s conference semifinal games (left column):

(*) This ELO-based model uses estimates for each team’s skills
based only on final scores and location of games. Then 20,000
simulations are run and updated after each game.

FFHL PLAYOFFS

Week #18 continues and finishes on Super Bowl Sunday.

Following are the updated results with three games to go.

As you can see, we are struggling mightily with these NFL playoff
games, especially after last week’s picks.

FANTASTIC BOWL
YO MAMA vs. THE FUGITIVE
It’s already over.
Results to date:
Yo Mama 2-2 ATS The FFHL Champ already
Fugitive 1-6 ATS From Penthouse to Poor (“Bastard”) House
in two weeks; I could write a book on how
to lose convincingly ATS

FFHL LOP-SIDED and CONTESTED PICKS AGAINST THE SPREAD (ATS)
Listed below is a breakdown of ALL of our 32 picks for
Week#18B-Conference Semifinals Weekend.
It was really quite amazing that in these critical games we had
almost complete agreement on our picks – only three contrary picks
(9%). And we stunk it up, too, going 1-3 ATS with our lopsided picks,
combining for a 9-23-0 record ATS (28.1% - ugly).

NFL COACHING CHANGES – UPDATES since last week’s newsletter
Tampa Bay
The Buccaneers hired Dirk Koetter as their new head coach; he was
most recently the OC for the TB team (2015), and previously the OC
for the ATL Falcons (2012-2014).
Former ATL Falcons’ HC Mike Smith will be the new DC for the
Bucs.

Detroit
HC Jim Caldwell is staying; he has been the Lions’ HC for two
years, and has posted an 18-14 record, making the playoffs in 2014.

Philadelphia:
CORRECTION (my mistake): Tom Coughlin withdrew from consideration
for the HC job; instead, the real new head coach of the Eagles is
Doug Pederson (current OC for KC Chiefs, until they lost at New
England on Saturday). Well, we think Pederson is the new head coach.

The PHI Eagles presumably offered and finalized the deal with
Pederson before they were allowed to do so, since his KC Chiefs’
team was still participating in the playoffs. But it appears right
now that the NFL is not going to pursue improprieties and rescind the
deal.

San Diego
The new offensive coordinator for the Chargers is Ken Whisenhunt,
fired as HC by the Tennessee Titans during the 2015 season. He’s
back; Ken was the OC for the Chargers in 2013.

Indianapolis
The new offensive line coach for the Colts is former Miami HC Joe
Philbin, who decided not to join the NY Giants’ coaching staff.

Tennessee
The new HC is in fact Mike Mularkey, hired from within the
organization (former assistant HC/tight end’s coach). He was
previously the HC of the JAX Jaguars in 2012.
The new GM for the Titans is Jon Robinson, who is a native of West
Tennessee and has been a Titans’ fan since 1997 when the Houston
Oilers moved to Nashville, TN.

NFL MINUTIA

Los Angeles Rams – UPDATE
The LA Rams and “San Diego” Chargers are negotiating to
determine if the Bolts and former St. Louis team will share the new
facility in Inglewood, CA. Both teams have committed to not
discussing any of the negotiations, so the media and we fans don’t
have the slightest clue what is going on.
Rams’ owner Stan Kroenke is probably playing the Chargers
against the Oakland Raiders, who will step in if a deal with the
Chargers and owner Dean Spanos cannot be finalized because the
Raiders offer a much better financial deal than the Chargers are
willing to make.

2016 CFP SELECTION COMMITTEE

The 2015 College Football Playoff Committee ended up having only
12 members. For 2016, it is anticipated that the committee will get
back to its original 13 members.

Four former members are out:
Mike Tranghese, Pat Haden, Tom Osborne, and Mike Gould.
Potential replacements (none have been officially named yet):
Lloyd Carr (former Michigan HC for 13 years and College FB Hall of
Famer); he will probably replace “Big 10 representative” Osborne.

There are maybe five to seven other candidates, but I don’t have
any names yet.

COLLEGE PLAYER AND COACHES CHANGES

The final college head coaching vacancy has been filled. After
Larry Coker’s resignation, the UTSA Roadrunners have hired new HC
Frank Wilson, who is a reputed great recruiter and has been the LSU
RB coach for the last six years.

In the final analysis, there will be a significant turnover in FBS
head coaches from 2015 to 2016: 27HC changes (21%-wow!), including
13 at Power 5 schools; 8 new HC’s were DC’s last year and 8 were
OC’s last year.

Compare that to prior years:
2014 to 2015: 15 HC changes; only 1 new HC was a DC and 5 were
OC’s the prior year.
2013 to 2014: 19 HC changes

UNIVERSITY OF ALABAMA-BIRMINGHAM (UAB)

A decision was made at the end of the 2014 season to discontinue
the UAB football program for lack of funds. Boosters stood up and
resurrected the program with financial support. The school has
retained its football coach, Bill Clark, who decided to stay around
during the dormancy period to bring the program back; he was signed
to a five-year contract extension. The team will start playing again
in the 2017 season with a totally “non-conference” schedule that
includes eight games against Conference USA teams.

FOOTBALL QUIZ QUESTIONS

QUESTION #1: New England QB Tom Brady will be playing at Denver
this weekend in the AFC Championship game. He has accumulated only a
2-6 lifetime record in the Mile High City. Against which two
quarterbacks did he win in Denver?
HINT: Both are currently football commentator/analysts/talk show
hosts on TV.

QUESTION #2: What two sports generate the most gambling in this
world?
HINT: The biggest sports gambling comes from the most popular
sport worldwide.

ANSWER #1:
Danny Kanell and Tim Tebow.

ANSWER #2:
Number One is soccer, which you may have known.

But #2 is TENNIS, mainly because there are many events throughout
the world. This has become a topic of conversation recently with a
possible uncovering of “fixed” matches and a potential major
scandal in the sport. Stay tuned.