Western Caribbean disturbance bringing heavy rains to the Yucatan Peninsula

An area of disturbed weather associated with a large area of low pressure has developed over the Western Caribbean Sea. This is not a reincarnation of Tropical Depression 16, but does have some of the moisture from that storm. The intensity and areal coverage of heavy thunderstorms in the disturbance has slowly increased over the past day (Figure 1). Wind shear is a high 20 knots, and is expected to remain in the 15-25 knot range over the next four days. This may allow some slow development of the disturbance. None of the computer models develop the disturbance, and NHC is giving it a low (<20% chance) of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday. A slow west-northwestward motion across the Yucatan Peninsula is expected to begin by Wednesday, and the disturbance will bring heavy rains of 3-6 inches to Belize and Mexico's Yucatan over the next three days.

ya I was ease-dropping on your"bitter"convo yesterday,its really good if you mix it w/gingerale or 7-up!!!,what a wooooonderful morning here on the beach,I'd say perfect morning....I'll ALWAYs except some of your local produce,I'm working on growing tomato's,jalepano's and strawberries for the winter...and you'll surely be entitled to some,when are you coming back from the "other" coast????,thurs-sat should be fun here locally if the GFDL pans out w/a strong TS going right over me/us!!!!!

Stillwaiting - planning to drop off mango's this AM b/4 I depart to pirate paradise. Yesterday the weather really put me in "fish-shock"... 60 degrees in the AM and then up to 79 in the afternoon..... much prefer the 79... feeling better today -- must have been that nighttime beverage Pottery suggested

Every system is different and causes a different set of problems.I have seen no evidence anywhere within the NWS or the HPC that leads me to believe that 91L is going to cause any major problems yet for the state of Florida.

your opinion is yours,and mine,mine..that said I respect your opinion 100%,but I'm just giving my personal sypnosis on the weather and for life and property issues,one should listen to local officals and NO ONE ELSE,although sometimes we on the board here know things BEFORE the nhc makes them known to the public......

Good Morning Early Birds - Am I checking in to good news or bad news???? still wayyyy to early to know for sure about 91L's path......Paloma already looks to be MissyMischief, just fussing about in her corner--working us up w/expectation...women!! looks like I may be driving back into some "weather" on Saturday.

SMELLS LIKE MOOOSE in SRQ this morning -- think some of Orcas's cooler air has travel down here....

Although the TWO still places 91L over the open water quikscat does not give any indication that there is a low where the NHC says it is. We do see the rotation on the satellite and to the extent that there is a surface low it would appear to be just inland near 15.8N 86.5W. Much of what we are seeing as "spin" would seem to be in the mid levels of the atmosphere.

This position is supported by the fact that Roatan has a South wind. 91L appears to be meandering around and producing heavy rain in the NW Caribbean. Since midnight last night I have recorded 1.45 inches at my home in Grand Cayman and it is still raining steadily, albeit not very heavy.

Personally I think the fact they are calling for this area to move inland will obviously inhibit it from strengthening. Hopefully it remains disorganized until then and we have nothing more to worry about than rain. I don't want to see a Wilma scenario play out although atleast it late October and it wouldn't be too hot if we lost our electricity...lol

when we getshowers and t-storms as there calling for from a tropical airmass,the rain is usually heavy rain,not a light mist!!!,hope that clarifies things,and generally if we get a low in the southern GOM moving onshore here along the west coast of FL if the winds are anystronger than 30mph onshore some places along the water get coastal flooding,may I ask where you live????

GULF OF MEXICO...AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...WHICH IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM NW CUBA NEAR 23N80W TO 22N85W TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 21N88W. A STATIONARY FRONT THEN EXTENDS FROM 21N88W TO THE SE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 19N91W. THE PORTION OF THIS COLD FRONT THAT WAS PREVIOUSLY STATIONARY IS SHOWING SIGNS OF SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION AS EVIDENT IN PROGRESSION OF THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL/MOISTURE GRADIENT AND CORRESPONDING CLOUD BANDS. WEAK ATMOSPHERIC LIFT IN RELATIVELY MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS SUPPORTING ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE COLD FRONT AND STATIONARY FRONT...IMPACTING PORTIONS OF THE SE GULF. FARTHER TO THE NW...AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS STRETCHES FROM S TEXAS TO THE S APPALACHIANS. SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR IN NW FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN THIS UPPER RIDGE AND THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH ARE RESULTING IN FAIR WEATHER ACROSS MUCH OF THE NW AND CENTRAL GULF...ESPECIALLY AS A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS INTO THE N GULF FROM THE SE CONUS. ADDITIONALLY...WITH A SURFACE RIDGE PRESENT OVER MEXICO...AND A 1011 MB SURFACE LOW OFF THE COAST OF W MEXICO NEAR 12N94W...STRONG WINDS CONTINUE TO BLOW THROUGH THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC RESULTING IN GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE NEARBY E PACIFIC REGION.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...A 1011 MB SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED IN THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR 17N87W...OR ABOUT 90 NM E OF THE COAST OF BELIZE. BROAD LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AROUND THE LOW...COUPLED WITH UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN...IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION MAINLY TO THE E AND SE OF THE LOW...FROM 14N-20N BETWEEN 80W-87W. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE BEFORE IT MOVES INLAND OVER BELIZE OR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IN A DAY OR TWO. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF HONDURAS...GUATEMALA...BELIZE...AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

the models are starting to come into some agreement about 91L's path into SWFL,somewhere between tampa and naples.....no matter how strong it is,thurs-sat there's a good chance of heavy rain,gusty winds and possibly some coastal flooding.....