Thursday, September 4, 2014

NFL 2014: Projected Standings Prior to Season

Each preseason we play out the entire NFL regular season
based on the power ratings we apply to each team heading into the season.Here is what each division looks like based
on that exercise:

AFC East

Wins

Loss

NFC East

Wins

Loss

NE

9.49

6.51

PHI

8.96

7.04

NYJ

7.90

8.10

NYG

8.28

7.72

MIA

7.36

8.64

WAS

7.77

8.23

BUF

6.33

9.67

DAL

7.50

8.50

AFC North

NFC North

PIT

9.30

6.70

GB

9.17

6.83

CIN

8.76

7.24

DET

8.69

7.31

BAL

8.30

7.70

CHI

7.92

8.08

CLE

6.86

9.14

MIN

6.55

9.45

AFC South

NFC South

IND

8.69

7.31

CAR

9.29

6.71

HOU

7.57

8.43

NO

9.27

6.73

TEN

6.02

9.98

ATL

7.70

8.30

JAC

4.87

11.13

TB

6.36

9.64

AFC West

NFC West

DEN

11.55

4.45

SEA

11.32

4.68

SD

8.37

7.63

SF

8.95

7.05

KC

7.46

8.54

ARI

7.98

8.02

OAK

6.74

9.26

STL

4.71

11.29

Those win totals above are comparable to those that the Five
Thirty Eight website has posted over the last few weeks.However, these are NOT to be used as guides
to bet win totals – as you can see above this exercise only projects two teams
to win 10+ games, which we know will not be the case based on history.Instead, this exercise is excellent to
project the order teams will finish in the standings and to project playoff
teams because it takes into account SOS & home/road splits.The green teams are projected division
winners while the yellow are projected wild card teams.

The key next step that must be taken to use this information
for season win totals is correlating the results to what we see over a typical
NFL season.What does that mean?For example, over the last five years we have
seen AT LEAST 9 teams win 10+ games in a season – so we use that information to
project each team’s win estimations by layering in past results, taking an
average (I take an average of the last five years of how many games the best
team through the 32nd team won) and slotting each 2014 NFL team
accordingly.

Here is what the standings look like after completing that
exercise:

AFC East

Wins

Loss

NFC East

Wins

Loss

NE

12.4

3.6

PHI

10.4

5.6

NYJ

7.6

8.4

NYG

8.2

7.8

MIA

6.0

10.0

WAS

7.6

8.4

BUF

4.0

12.0

DAL

6.8

9.2

AFC North

NFC North

PIT

12.2

3.8

GB

10.8

5.2

CIN

9.8

6.2

DET

9.6

6.4

BAL

8.6

7.4

CHI

7.6

8.4

CLE

5.6

10.4

MIN

4.8

11.2

AFC South

NFC South

IND

9.4

6.6

CAR

11.4

4.6

HOU

6.8

9.2

NO

11.2

4.8

TEN

3.6

12.4

ATL

7.2

8.8

JAC

2.6

13.4

TB

4.2

11.8

AFC West

NFC West

DEN

13.8

2.2

SEA

13.0

3.0

SD

9.0

7.0

SF

10.2

5.8

KC

6.4

9.6

ARI

8.0

8.0

OAK

5.0

11.0

STL

1.8

14.2

Here are the calibrated NFL projected standings – these
could be used if playing season win totals, though as many of you know I am not
a proponent of playing futures as there are simply far too many variables
involved in projecting an entire season before a game is played.I have rounded here to 1 decimal place
because if playing season win totals it’s either a whole or half number.

This is simply one way to project how many games each team
will win.You can also read about the
plus/minus 4 games theory I posted about on July 7th along with
knowing we typically see an average of 5 new playoffs teams vs. the prior
season – use multiple analysis/sources to your advantage.

Lastly, let’s take a closer look at team by team SOS using
my preseason power ratings, including the home/away splits which can be
CRITICAL to winning division’s and/or wild cards:

SOS
for Road

SOS
for Home

TOTAL
SOS

ARI

178.5

4

176.5

3

355.0

2

ATL

172.5

11

172.5

12

345.0

9

BAL

163.5

22

159.0

26

322.5

26

BUF

174.5

9

168.0

18

342.5

12

CAR

171.0

14

176.0

4

347.0

6

CHI

178.5

4

163.5

23

342.0

14

CIN

166.5

18

164.0

22

330.5

21

CLE

157.5

27

166.5

21

324.0

25

DAL

157.0

28

172.5

12

329.5

22

DEN

175.0

8

168.0

18

343.0

11

DET

175.5

7

163.5

23

339.0

16

GB

170.0

15

174.0

9

344.0

10

HOU

150.0

32

153.0

32

303.0

32

IND

156.5

30

156.0

28

312.5

30

JAC

162.5

23

155.0

29

317.5

29

KC

177.5

6

176.0

4

353.5

4

MIA

168.0

17

169.5

17

337.5

20

MIN

162.5

23

177.0

2

339.5

15

NE

165.0

21

173.0

11

338.0

19

NO

166.5

18

172.5

12

339.0

16

NYG

157.0

28

168.0

18

325.0

24

NYJ

162.5

23

176.0

4

338.5

18

OAK

180.0

1

174.5

8

354.5

3

PHI

169.5

16

157.0

27

326.5

23

PIT

156.0

31

163.5

23

319.5

28

SD

174.5

9

172.0

15

346.5

7

SEA

171.5

13

175.0

7

346.5

7

SF

180.0

1

173.5

10

353.5

4

STL

179.0

3

182.5

1

361.5

1

TB

172.5

11

170.0

16

342.5

12

TEN

158.5

26

154.0

30

312.5

30

WAS

166.5

18

154.0

30

320.5

27

I sorted in alphabetical order so it’s easier to locate your
favorite team, but identifying the toughest and easiest schedules in each
conference is a critical exercise in attempting to project team success over
the entire season.Obviously team’s
power ratings will change as the season goes on – some will change dramatically
such as Houston last season – but it still can be used as a solid guide in what
to expect this season, in particular the home vs. road splits which is
absolutely critical.

Thanks for reading our final installment of our NFL 2014
Preseason package.Check back during the
season for our performance ratings / power ratings / projected standings update
as posted throughout last season.

No comments:

Post a Comment

The SportsBoss is a handicapping "broker" that offers NFL, NBA, NCAA football, NCAA basketball, NHL and MLB picks. The Sports Boss leverages his background which includes both a BS and MBA in Finance to build robust, analytical models which aid in predicting outcomes of games in every sport.