Areas SSE of Tambaram with a rainfall totals < 10 mm seems to be the only ones to have received some in the last 24 hours surrounding Chnai region .. the monsters have kept their presence to the west running south …..

If definitive Elnino conditions develops with neutral/+ve IOD & neutral/cold West African coast’s Atlantic SSTs by the time of SWM onset, then it may not effect the SWM-performance badly. SWM-2015 will have normal performance (onset, progress & rainfall) unlike SWM-2014 (erratic & deficient).

ECMWF s forecast is not encouraging for much of North west India , and some parts of N India too…..
Head Bay seems to be active , with some really above normal rainfall forecasted .,..Will have to look out for its effect in the Gangetic plains …..But much of it seems to be a retention in Bay ….

JAMSTEC predicts the evolution of positive IOD through the boreal Summer and Fall….and a short peak in the fall season. If it happens as per the JAMSTEC predictions, then the post monsoon cyclone season could have an impact ,since a negative IOD in place till September/October is considered quite favorable compared to positive IOD conditions both in terms of sea surface conditions and as well as the upper level steering patterns ….

Precipitation anomaly patterns forecasts from the JAMSTEC gives an idea of positive above normal rains for much of the equatorial Indian Ocean , and adjoining Sri Lanka and S.TN .Clear indications of last year repeat for NEM , with low latitude placement of equatorial trough and the rains….
With lower rains predicted for Chennai and north coastal TN both during SWM and NEM along with El Nino being predicted , I fear we might end up in some real shortage of annual rains for Chennai this year…..provided the JAMSTEC s prediction takes a lead ….

Its getting better and better than NEM, Historic April Rains in Tamil Nadu, ending 8.30 am on 16.04.2015
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The cyclonic circulation over central parts of Madhya Pradesh & Neighbourhood persists and now extends between 3.1 & 4.5 kms a.s.l. The trough from central parts of Madhya Pradesh to Lakshadweep area now runs from southern parts of Uttar Pradesh to Comorin area extends between 5.8 & 7.6 kms a.s.l.

The trough of low at mean sea level over south Andaman Sea and adjoining southeast Bay of Bengal now lies over southwest Bay of Bengal.

Chennai gets 100 mm rainfall in less than hour. Entire Theni and Madurai district got battered. Tiruppur getting second day of 100 mm’s. Isnt the current spell better than NEM.

Mango Showers Continue in Karnataka without break, Rainfall ending 8.30 am 17.04.2015
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The cyclonic circulation over Lakshadweep area and neighbourhood has moved away westwards.

I cant recall a better April for Tamil Nadu than this year, Rainfall ending 8.30 am on 17.04.2015
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The trough of low at mean sea level over southwest Bay of Bengal persists.The cyclonic circulation over Lakshadweep area and neighbourhood has moved away westwards.

The report says..
Conditions in the equatorial and east Pacific suggests a building El Nino in which waters of the west (and closer to India) cool down. This suppresses evaporation and cloud-building.
Instead, the equatorial and east Pacific warm up. Resultant stormy weather and excess rainfall are driven away from Asia and towards the South American coast.

El Nino has no direct cause-impact relationship with the Indian monsoon but has at times coincided with deficit monsoon as in year 2009.

The forecasts for specific periods by these agencies are as follows:

May-June-July

ECMWF – Below normal for Gujarat, northwest India and east India.

IRI – No major deviation for whole country.

UKMO – 40- to 60 per cent chances for below-normal for northwest, central and east-central India.

North India, especially North west India along with Gujarat areas and Pakistan should be reeling under severe heat wave conditions in 2 spells …in the next 10 days, By 26th April Iran and west Pakistan should be bearing the hot hot days starting the season of severe heat waves that starts off the Arabian peninsula and moving eastwards …………

No. I have totally forgotten him. Novak misses his humor. This site is more than an individual. Tomorrow if i am leaving this blog. The blog will go on. I can see so many weather lovers here than in 2009.

Yes Pradeep, this weather page or any platform is bigger than any individual..Be it sports, Our Job whatever… i have always enjoyed dash’s presence in the blog for the way he used to mix up weather with some humour..Many a times you yourself have acknowledged this fact about him in the blog..Am i right or not? .Yes yes yes- i do miss him…Not only me, many here share the same feeling..He had that uncanny knack of diffusing tense situations with his light hearted comments…

Our city has only three seasons — hot, hotter and hell. Given this, would people believe me if I said that the temperature once dipped below freezing in our city, and that too, in the sweltering month of April? It would probably be dismissed as an April Fool’s Joke. And yet it happened exactly 200 years ago, in the last week of April 1815. The morning temperature was 11 degrees Celsius on Monday, April 24, and by Friday, April 28, it had dipped to minus 3 degrees Celsius. There are unverified reports of snow falling too but that may be an exaggeration.

The cause of this freak phenomenon was the volcanic eruption of Mount Tambora in distant Indonesia. At that time, this was the tallest peak in the archipelago which formed that country, rising to a height of 4,300 m.

Lava burst forth from it on April 10 and 11, 1815, with such ferocity that the explosion killed around 12,000 people and was heard 2,000 km away. It holds the record for being the largest volcanic activity ever in world history till date.

What followed next is best described in Tambora: The Eruption That Changed The World, by Gillen D’Arcy Wood — “Tambora’s dust veil, serene and massive above the clouds, began its westward drift aloft the winds of the upper atmosphere. Its airy passage to India outran the thousands of waterborne vessels below bent upon an identical course, breasting the trade winds from the resource-rich East Indies to the commercial ports of the Indian Ocean. The vanguard of Tambora’s stratospheric plume arrived over the Bay of Bengal within days”.

Madras was perhaps the first to feel it two weeks later, with the temperature dipping to freezing point, thanks to the aerosols in the volcanic cloud absorbing heat from the sun and the earth. Given that our public dons monkey caps and earmuffs in December each year, what was the fashion statement in freezing April 1815? There is, however, not one East India Company record that notes the reactions of the colonial masters or the people to this freak occurrence. There is also no mention of a tsunami. Pumice stone, however, washed up on the coast for a long while.

What followed thereafter was not as pleasant as the cold weather. The ash cloud spread globally, making 1816 the ‘year without summer’. In Madras, and the rest of India, it also meant a year without monsoon. Crops failed, as they did internationally. Famine in India was followed by cholera, which is now directly attributed by scholars to the volcano. Over 70,000 people perished globally, due to Tambora.

In August 1815, the brig Catherina — the first vessel from Java after the eruption — arrived in Madras.The Madras Courier interviewed the craft’s master for an eyewitness description of what happened. He also brought with him a bag of volcanic ash, which was forwarded to Calcutta for further analysis. But nobody linked the big freeze in Madras to the volcano!

Thght for the day: Lets think about Groundwater…does it flow or stagnant? For example why is groundwater vry gud/at a better level in tambaram than in pallavaram? Does groundwater evaporate into/ thro rocks?

Hey Shiva.. am doing good.. been busy of late.so i was just a silent visitor to this blog.. weather is much better here in New York.. today it is touching 77 F.. spring is well in here.. am visiting India in June ( Chennai ). So if you guys planning a meet that time i will join 🙂

In the year 1888 Madras was affected by four cyclones. The North East monsoon rain was unusually heavy, especially about the end of October. A considerable cyclone passed over Madras and Chengleput and a portion of the North Arcot District on October 31 st, on that day the rain was 9.2 inches and the daily velocity of the wind was 66 miles. A second storm, with its centre southward of Madras, also brought strong wind and considerable rain about December 13 th
.
Account of the weather was furnished by the port officer is as follows: “The weather on the morning of 30 th was unsettled, but the barometer was steady and did not, at that time, indicate the approach of a storm. At noon the wind began to increase in force, and at 8 pm, the barometer began to be felt at first very slowly the weather became more unsettled during the night, with constant rain.
The wind had now shifted to North West and increased steadily in force. At noon of the 31 st the weather was very stormy, and the barometer began to fall rather rapidly, the wind remained steady at north-west, and the squalls became more violent and were extremely severe between 6 pm and 9 pm. There was a lull of half an hour from about 9.30 pm to 10 pm and almost immediately after 10pm the wind began to come from east. The lowest reading of the barometer was taken very shortly after at 10.30 pm. The wind now blew for some time in furious gusts from the east and then shifted to south–south–east, at which it remained for some hours. It rained continuously for 49 hours from about 10a.m of the 31 st when the centre was probably nearly 150 miles distant, until 1 am of the 1st
November. The rapid fall of the barometer which coincided with the period of frequent
furious squalls of wind lasted from 6 pm, (when the distance of the centre was probably about 40 miles), to about 2 am. The outer storm area was from 200 to 250 miles in diameter from east to west and the inner storm area 80 to 90 miles in diameter. Cyclone of 19th to 27th 1889 December crossed the Madras coast and broke up in South India.

Some more quotes on Madras Freeze.It looks like the Freeze happened every April between 1815 to 1818
In southeastern India (Pant et al. 2 ), the total June-September rainfall in 1816 at Madras (13 °N)
was, by contrast, about one standard deviation above the 1871-1988 normal (and similarly below
normal in 1815). While the rainfall series for Bombay (19°N) only begins in 1817, the
occurrence of famine (drought?) in Kutch (above) suggests that this western part of the
Peninsula may also have been drier in 1816. With respect to temperature, Stothers (1984) notes
that Madras experienced a remarkable cooling in the last week of April 1815: morning
temperature stood at 11°C on Monday dropping to -3°C by Friday. (On the other hand, there
was no drop at Canton, China.) In summer 1816, the temperature again dipped below freezing
in Madras, which is almost unheard of (Rampino 1989). The annual mean temperatures for
Madras (Stothers after Koppen 1873) show that values had fallen below the long-term (1800-40)
mean in 1814 to a low in 1818, returning to above normal in 1821.

exactly on tis day in 2006, a surge of equatorial westerlies had an interaction with easterlies at lower level on south,southeastern parts of bay just 3 days prior to very severe cyclone mala genesis.. Indonesian archipelago may have some great role in pre monsoon cyclogenesis just like how lankan landmass influence nem cyclogenesis over sw bay.

Hi PJ….I am very astonished to find the obvious entire wind patterns all across the globe shown in earth null images…..what will be the consistancy of the wind patterns shown in the earth.nullschool images……will they be accurate sir

Temperatures increasing in Rayalaseema and Telangana………
But this time the temperatures are more in telangana than rayalaseema
Today kurnool Nandyal Nizamabad Ramagundam kothagudem medak shamshaabad cuddapah may record 39 to 40 today
Many models forecasting the temperatures to raise to 41 to 42 this week and then reduce by sat an sunday due to some thunderstorm activity
Hyderabad temperatures at 11 30
shamshhabad airport 37
Manuguru 39
kurnool 35.6

The almost full depth cyclonic circulation in the southern Arabian Sea currently , was a result of the dip in the Jet streams which was directly and indirectly responsible for the rains to much of the peninsular India last week. The rains were a combination of the common LWD , interaction of tropical and sub tropical flow patterns , etc…

This large circulation in the Arabian Sea currently is seen extending well into the 200 hPa level…..This is a remnant induced pattern….at the fag end of the dip in the westerlies ….
It is moving towards the Somalian coastline , with very little rain …………..

PJ, the first thing is that it is a wide one , not a concentrated circulation. It was just a circulation that had resulted because of different and opposite flows on either sides shaped by surrounding High Pressure environmental circulations.More important is that the air sea coupling factor is almost nil underneath it.
If u see the lower levels u have no hint of any circulation coupling with this upper level circulation. Thus, the air sea coupling is almost not happening there. Only if u have a coupling of air and sea, we can see moisture being lifted into this vortex to develop and sustain with deep convection , which is not simply happening here.
The surface level MSLP charts in the region does not show any considerable pressure drop too, and moreover the sea surface underneath it is having outflows from the HPA to the NNW of it, and that flow is least bothered and is not trying to get into this one as some inflow also…
Dry air is already seen getting wrapped into , and with more on the way, the word convection will find no use ….

To say in simple terms this vortex is just an empty cylinder with no fuel(moisture) , being mechanically rotated by surrounding cylinders, and not rotating by its own power(no latent heat release to rotate)

Kiran & Harsha,
It looks like next rain-wave will be in particular for the coastal regions of AP including Khammam district. Overall the regions which doesn’t covered by last LWD will receive good amount of rains by next LWD.

LPA pounds Andhra Pradesh, rainfall ending 8.30 am on 10.05.2014
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The low pressure area over north interior Karnataka and neighbourhood has become less marked. However, the associated cyclonic circulation extending upto mid tropospheric levels lies over north coastal Andhra Pradesh and adjoining Odisha and Chhattisgarh

PJ, next rain-wave from LWD will mimic the above rainfall figures for the same regions i.e. central & Northern AP apart from Khammam district (Telangana). These regions doesn’t received significant rains form the recent past LWD that pounded Rayalaseema & Telangana with record breaking rains.