As this storm occurred, it "set the cycle" at about 47 - 49 days. That would take us to right around January 27th - 29th. If we were to look at what GFS fantasy land has pegged for that time period it shows something quite similiar to the previous two signature storms.

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So here is a look at what could end up being the "January 27th -29th" signature storm somewhere in the Upper Midwest. . .

Here is a picture of "fantasy land" GFS a couple weeks prior to the storm, specifically hour 336 from January 14th . . .

So if you use a data set for +13 to +15 days following a signature storm. . .this would lead us to believe that there is a possibility for a similiar set up on or around February 9th. As this timeframe comes into range on the models, we should watch the model trends that occurred leading up to these two previous storms for the Mid Atlantic and East Coast and compare.

Something else to consider is how the models overplayed the cold air that came behind the systems in late November and early December when it was first showing up. Don't get me wrong, it's going to be cold.

Something else to consider is how the models overplayed the cold air that came behind the systems in late November and early December when it was first showing up. Don't get me wrong, it's going to be cold.

Very true . . . It ended up being a more moderate brand of cold then what was advertised by the models days earlier . . . it will be interesting to see if that varifies this time as well, as the models are again starting to trend away from the brutal cold that was advertised a few days ago. . .

as you stated though . . . still expecting some arctic air to filter on in

As a start, you may want to punch in October 24th 2010 . . . set the "extra days" to 4 and the "max frames" to 240 . . .

From there go ahead and cycle through the different options you have available to you . . .

One that i recommend is the SatSfcComposit

This shows the evolution of our first signature storm

Now, try doing the same with the second signature storm . . . use a date of December 10th 2010. . .

If you really feel ambitious, open two seperate windows and put them side by side and watch the loops at the same time. . .this gives a nice side by side view of the evolution of our two signature systems.

In earlier posts it was brought up that, per the LRC, these two systems appear to be lining up quite well. Remember, it is important not to focus on surface elements when comparing past and current systems. Follow the upper air patters.

If you want to look through what happened with those systems check here . . .

Again, recall that surface OBS may be different each time the cycle repeats itself, but the upper air movements are nearly the same. One factor that may alter surface differences is the fact that there was a fresh, deep snowpack (in the Upper MW down towards the OV) that had fallen with the system that brought this cold air in. The fresh snowpack being delivered by the January 19th - 22nd system is setting up in a different location. Therefore night time lows will differ accordingly.

This is an example why the LRC should only be looked at for the upper air patterns and not strictly what happens at the surface. . .

One other thing to note is the moderation of temps in the Lower Plains as we reach the December 9th timeframe. This is setting the stage for what became the second signature storm on December 11th - 12th. . .

As of current model runs. . .the same moderation is forcast to occur, therefore, it looks like our cycle is still at or around 47 days.

This weekend's cold air looks to be taking us into our signature storm on or around the 27th of January still.

I also noticed that there has been a lot of chat in the last few days regarding the LRC. . .

I feel that it is important to keep things in perspective. The LRC is not meant to undermine the concept of forecasting. It is meant to be used as an ADDITIONAL tool when analyzing all of the data that is available to us while creating a forecast.

Other tools that are used include models, tools, "experts" and their interpretations, teleconnections, etc.

All the LRC does is too to identify cycles of upper air patterns. . . It is up to you and I to take some information from that, apply it to current surface readings, teleconnections, and ALL of the tools. . .to come up with our own forcast of what will fall from the sky and when (or if you are like me, when it will be 80 degrees and sunny ).