Enter your personal details before clicking Continue Checkout at the bottom of the window.

You will then be given a choice of paying with PayPal or your credit card (via Stripe).

Contact us if you wish to pay via Skrill, Neteller or bank transfer.

Upon payment, download links for the files you have purchased will be automatically sent to your email address.

What You Get for Your Money

Instead of the usual one HDAFU table per league, you now get three. (Except Australia A-League, which is a whole season analysis only due to its size and lack of any recognisable mid-season break. The price of this table is reduced to £20.00 GBP).

The new style tables presented here are also optimised for easy filtering.

Our recommendation is for a set of systems in several leagues, enough to provide you with a portfolio of at least 500 bets in a season. You’ll then have a chance of emulating our 2016 campaign.

Frequently Asked Questions

Is there a time restriction on the usefulness of the HDAFU tables?

The tables simulate the profits and losses by betting type for the last five complete seasons if choosing the same bet type for every game of the season. Therefore, the ‘natural’ cut-off point is the end of the following season when the tables have to be re-calibrated.

Simulating the profit/losses when betting on the same outcome over the last five seasons, the tables show a picture of the likely (expected) distribution for the forthcoming season.

If the bettor chooses a distribution which is equally spread over the year (e.g. underdogs in the German Bundesliga with odds between 4.0 and 17.0), then it doesn’t really matter when the systematic betting starts.

The HDAFU tables are a great help at any time throughout the season to provide focus upon profitable areas within your chosen league and allow you to refine your final bet selections.

What is the relationship between the HDAFU tables and the Value Bet Detector?

The HDAFU tables simulate profit/losses when betting systematically on one specific bet type, e.g. backing the home win, the draw, the away win, the favourite or the underdog. The Value Bet Detector is an odds and probability calculation tool for individual/particular matches of interest.

The HDAFU tables were initially developed as a tool to recognise clusters of matches that were far more likely to contain value bets, and thus provide filtered sets of matches to preview.

We often receive questions such as, “Can the HDAFU tables and the Value Calculator support each other?” or, “What is the relevance of the HDAFU tables?” or, “Which methodology is better?”

Ultimately, both products are tools for odds calculation and understanding the betting market. The Value Bet detector is an analysis tool for individual matches; the HDAFU simulation tables is better for systematic betting in larger numbers.

“A portfolio is a package of bets where extensive analysis has determined the choices (picks)… This is an essential part of the whole betting strategy in order to reduce the risks of losing by diversifying.”

Actually, there is nothing more to say. Just spend some quality thinking time on it.

It totally depends on personal preferences, on the availability of betting markets to you, on your risk awareness, your understanding of probabilities and statistics, and finally, using all of this combined knowledge to make your best personal judgement, never losing sight of the fact that the bottom line is making profits.

Yes. Although the HDAFU tables directly simulate what happened from a backing perspective over the last five seasons, they are obviously reversible and provide a sound benchmark for formulating lay betting strategies.

Large positive figures and rising curves within the tables indicate promising back betting opportunities, whilst large negative falling curves point to potential lay strategies.

The HDAFU tables come with an odds toggle as well as an exchange commission toggle so that the user can adjust the base figures where necessary – This is of great importance to those wishing to accurately analyse lay strategies.

Don’t forget that betting exchange odds are often ‘higher’ than the highest bookmaker odds and, of course, have a built-in commission surcharge levied by the exchange platform. The effects of these variables can be gauged using the toggle functions within each HDAFU table.

Why is concentrating on bet types more profitable than betting on teams?

The answer to this question is simple psychology, which often defeats the average punter.

There are millions of people who follow one or another team. They read all the news available, discuss form, players and managers, and everything else there is to think about when a match involving “their” team is coming up.

There are plenty of “must win” situations, and even if the odds seem a little short, bets are still placed on the team they support to win the game. Both reliance on luck and a lot of hope goes into each game.

Unfortunately, gut feelings are very often a false friend and team news also has no relevance to the ‘true odds’ of a game; little wonder that there are more losing punters than winners.

The HDAFU tables help the gambler to disconnect all emotions from betting. The figures show very plainly where to concentrate when compiling a betting system portfolio for profit.

After payment you will be redirected to download your purchased product(s). You will also receive an e-mail with a confirmation of your purchase and download link from DPD (our partner for storing and delivering of digital products) as well as from PayPal (our partner for secure payment processing).

PayPal is an online payment service that is world-wide used for processing secure payments on the Internet. Paypal supports all major payment methods such as direct debit, credit cards and deposits. Should you wish another payment option then we also offer Neteller, Skrill (Moneybookers) or bank transfer. Check here.

Customer Comment

The results of your 2016-17 campaign are fantastic. I’m going to go through your campaign in detail and learn what I can about how and why you put it together and then hopefully go some way toward achieving what you guys did in that season.

One other thing I wanted to say about what you offer at Soccerwidow….the material – free and paid for – is so valuable and really does teach people what they need to know in order to understand the betting market and what is profitable and what is not, the pitfalls and the best way forward.

I’m very much like you in that I don’t see the value in blindly following someone else picks, but when someone doesn’t know the betting market or how to go about it themselves, blind following is what a lot of people gravitate towards.

With your products they really do teach people and empower them to be able to make their own decisions and do things the right way. I feel I have learned a tremendous amount since I found your website and am very much looking forward to putting it into practice in this upcoming football season.

We had a breakthrough in our thinking last year so we experimented with the idea.

Knowing from experience that the first and second halves of a football match are usually played in very different circumstances, we extended the idea to leagues as a whole.

Analysing a season’s results (or a set of them together) naturally gives only a blend of what has happened during the whole season. Splitting the analysis into halves makes far more sense. After all, so many leagues have winter breaks, or mid season intervals, and many of those leagues without a recognised break have a natural break in their programmes. The break is so long in certain leagues (e.g. Russia) that their season might just as well be two separate seasons.

We therefore decided to split the HDAFU tables (Home-Draw-Away-Favourites-Underdogs) into three separate tables per league. One showing the five season whole season picture, the next showing the first half season results (before the break), and the last showing the second half season results (after the break).

The results were staggering and showed quite clearly the distinctive trends of each half season as opposed to the whole season blend. We decided to put our theory to the test and embarked on what turned out to be a hugely successful betting campaign.

After payment you will be redirected to download your purchased product(s). You will also receive an e-mail with a confirmation of your purchase and download link from DPD (our partner for storing and delivering of digital products) as well as from PayPal (our partner for secure payment processing).

PayPal is an online payment service that is world-wide used for processing secure payments on the Internet. Paypal supports all major payment methods such as direct debit, credit cards and deposits. Should you wish another payment option then we also offer Neteller, Skrill (Moneybookers) or bank transfer. Check here.

Customer Comment

I have recently purchased some HDA tables which I have to say are simply excellent.
They have certainly opened my eyes to areas I had never considered before.

Studying them fully will take me a while but I used some insights gained from them on a few
games at the weekend and again, I have to say that I am very impressed with the product.

Hector

]]>http://www.soccerwidow.com/football-gambling/betting-knowledge/systems/2017-summer-league-1x2-tables/feed/12Sports Betting Course – Over/Under Goals – Product Specificshttp://www.soccerwidow.com/football-gambling/betting-knowledge/value-betting-academy/sports-betting-course-over-under-product-specifics/
http://www.soccerwidow.com/football-gambling/betting-knowledge/value-betting-academy/sports-betting-course-over-under-product-specifics/#commentsSun, 20 Nov 2016 05:41:09 +0000http://www.soccerwidow.com/?p=5601more »]]>Fundamentals of Sports Betting (Betting on Over/Under ‘X’ Goals) is unlike any other book you will find elsewhere. It contains insights into how mathematics and statistics are applied to bookmaking, information that is rarely (if at all) found in the public domain.

Have you ever wondered how bookmakers set their odds? They must be pretty good at it to remain trading in a high risk industry built on small margins!

Remember folks it’s all about finding the “edge”.

Image: Cartoonresource (Shutterstock)

It is common knowledge that the gambling industry as a whole relies to a large extent on the ignorance of its customers and, only by understanding how bookmakers think and act, will you ever be able to compete with them on a level playing field.

The Most Valuable Book About Betting You Will Ever Buy!

This course is designed to give you the essential, fundamental knowledge necessary to understand odds calculation and the bookmaker market.

It deals with relatively simple descriptive statistics and teaches you how to look at data sets, calculate your own probabilities and odds, analyse the market odds on offer, and make informed decisions when predicting football results.

Amongst the topics you will work through are distributions, deviations, graphs and charts, odds calculation, financial terminologies, risk management, and of course, how to identify ‘value’ in the betting market.

You will gain a deep understanding of the many different elements required to understand the bookmaker market and odds calculation. Many false beliefs that the majority of gamblers and fans of football have about betting will be exposed and stripped away.

Readers will also be enlightened to learn about how odds are set in the market, where to find ‘errors’ in market prices, how to evaluate data and graphs, and much, much more.

What Do You Get For The Money?

The course comes in electronic format and the bundle includes the course book (PDF*) and a Bundesliga cluster table (Excel) for studying. This course employs a didactic method of teaching, which is an educational technique. It is a very structured style of learning and as such, each section of the course should be mastered before moving on to the next.

To further encourage you to learn, there is a plethora of exercises to practice what you have learned, and the solutions to the exercises are found at the end of the book, sometimes embellished with further explanations.

All of the course lessons are presented in a pragmatic, easy-to-follow, step-by-step fashion, with no more than passing respect towards the sport of football and the passion of its fans. After all, this book has been written by a lady who loves maths but dislikes football…!

In addition, you will receive the very latest Bundesliga table for the current season, so that you can put into practice what you have learned and within the course, you will find a discount code enabling you to download for free the German Bundesliga sheet in future seasons, meaning that you will always have access to the most current Bundesliga cluster table, forever: it doesn’t matter when you bought the course.

*By the way, the PDF is a professionally formatted document and if you have a double-sided printer you can print your own book for studying.

Fundamentals of Sports Betting
Course with Cluster Tables for the German Bundesliga
Over/Under ‘X’ Goals

Only £59.00*

PDF document professionally styled for easy reading and printing

For traditionalists, the PDF has been professionally formatted for double-sided printing. If you like, you can print your book in full-colour with a cover and add slick spiral binding.

Those who prefer to read the document on their computers will find the chosen font (Myriad Pro) easy to read on the screen. Myriad Pro has a clean sans-serif aesthetic which makes it highly accessible.

The electronic version also contains a plethora of easy-to-navigate links to help the learner find his way around the document.

Excel formulas, explanations and toggle facilities for the following conversions: –

Probabilities into Odds

Net returns into Odds

Odds into their Implied Probability

Odds into Net return

Why do I need to know how to convert betting odds
into probabilities and net returns, and vice versa?

In order to compare odds, you need to be able to convert them into implied probabilities and their net returns, because this is the foundation of all odds in the market. Only when you convert odds into their probabilities can you compare them.

What is the advantage of being able to switch between different betting odds formats?

As you compare prices and look for the best odds available in the market, you limit yourself if you are only at ease with one or two types of betting odds.

For example, you may wish to find the best price for a tennis match, and if you are only comfortable with European style odds, then you probably won’t even consider checking the US market or Asian bookmakers.

However, they may have far better prices on offer; you just simply don’t know because you don’t know how to convert them into probabilities and net returns.

You will never become a winner if you buy your bet at the most conveniently available price, without searching for the best price offered by the market.

Why is it important to know the formulas behind odds calculation?

If you calculate your own probabilities and need to check them against the odds offered by bookmakers to find value bets, how on earth would you work this out if you don’t know the formulas behind the odds?

The Internet is full of advice and explanations, but unfortunately the vast majority of information is either wrong or intended to lure you into betting. It is rare to find reliable information on the implied probabilities for odds offered in the markets, or the net returns from the odds.

Furthermore, only people who understand the probabilities behind the odds on offer are able to assess the potential value of a bet.

If you are not skilled in converting betting odds into probabilities you will, without exception, lose money in the long run. Keep reminding yourself: odds stand for probabilities. Bookmakers earn money from gambling, but they do NOT gamble themselves. Neither do they rely on luck. They know how to calculate probabilities and convert them into odds and vice versa. It’s as simple as this.

Therefore, if you want to become a winner, you need to start thinking like a bookmaker, and this means that you simply have to understand probabilities and odds. There is no alternative.

What impact does the knowledge of implied probabilities
and odds conversion have on my betting decisions?

There are two types of gamblers: successful and unsuccessful. The majority of bettors belong to the latter.

If you lose more money than you win, maybe you are basing your betting decisions more on gut feeling than mathematics. Perhaps you place your hard-earned money on a favourite team believing they are in a ‘must win’ match, thinking that they surely cannot lose against the underdog.

You may not even be aware that bookmakers adjust their odds to public opinion, and that odds offered in the market often do not represent their true value.

If your betting decisions are more gambling than anything else, relying on luck, without understanding underlying probabilities of the odds offered, then it is not really surprising that you lose more money than you win.

True understanding and lasting success is based on knowledge, not on ignorance, beliefs, or public opinion.

Only if you develop knowledge of implied probabilities from bookmaker odds, will you be able to check them against your own calculations. Then your betting decisions will be not gambling any more but a planned investment with the goal of a structured and organised increase of your bank.

1×2 FT Table of Records Synopsis

Please remember that the Value Bet Detector is not an automated betting tool; it is a sophisticated mathematical instrument to calculate statistical likelihoods of events occurring, and to identify whether the odds for those events hold value.

The 1×2 table of records is a supporting spreadsheet of data captured by the Value Bet Detector over a period of 18 months and is a valuable addition enabling the user to better target probability and odds clusters.

It goes without saying that the more knowledge and understanding of odds calculation you have, the more useful this ancillary spreadsheet will be.

After payment you will be redirected to download your purchased product(s). You will also receive an e-mail with a confirmation of your purchase and download link from DPD (our partner for storing and delivering of digital products) as well as from PayPal (our partner for secure payment processing).

PayPal is an online payment service that is world-wide used for processing secure payments on the Internet. Paypal supports all major payment methods such as direct debit, credit cards and deposits. Should you wish another payment option then we also offer Neteller, Skrill (Moneybookers) or bank transfer.

Customers Who Bought This Item Also Bought:

]]>http://www.soccerwidow.com/football-gambling/betting-knowledge/value-betting-academy/learning-centre/statistics-historical-data/1x2-full-time-table-of-records-value-betting/feed/2Correct Assignment of Football Data to Levels of Measurementhttp://www.soccerwidow.com/football-gambling/betting-knowledge/value-betting-academy/learning-centre/correct-assignment-football-data-levels-of-measurement/
http://www.soccerwidow.com/football-gambling/betting-knowledge/value-betting-academy/learning-centre/correct-assignment-football-data-levels-of-measurement/#respondWed, 24 Apr 2013 20:21:38 +0000http://www.fussballwitwe.com/?p=2734more »]]>In statistics, information is collected using qualitative or quantitative data. The collected data is then organised using scales or levels in order to classify the data correctly because not every set of data is of equal value and can be analysed further.

For example, whilst the total number of goals in a match can be counted easily allowing various arithmetical interpretations, the inclusion of a certain team in the league cannot be expressed as a meaningful number and may only be used for categorising the respective data set.

It is very important to be aware of the scales of measurement and to assign the correct levels as they not only express how quantitative a response is, but also to what extent meaningful computations can be applied.

Think Before You Calculate

Given a list of shirt numbers of players, it is certainly possible to perform all sorts of calculations but none will provide any meaningful results. What is one shirt number divided by another one? A complete waste of your time as this data belongs to the nominal scale.

Unfortunately, it is not always as obvious which data will lead to meaningful results and which not. Therefore, when you are collecting data, think before you calculate. The level of measurement you are working with will determine what makes sense to do and what to leave well alone.

Probably the most prominent misleading data set is the order of teams in the form table. This data is ordinal scaled and exists purely to put teams in an order. However, in practice, punters pay a lot of attention to the form tables (often even just the last six results!), but unfortunately these data are pretty useless in terms of meaningful analysis and drawing conclusions for betting.

After payment you will be redirected to download your purchased product(s). You will also receive an e-mail with a confirmation of your purchase and download link from DPD (our partner for storing and delivering of digital products) as well as from PayPal (our partner for secure payment processing).

PayPal is an online payment service that is world-wide used for processing secure payments on the Internet. Paypal supports all major payment methods such as direct debit, credit cards and deposits. Should you wish another payment option then we also offer Neteller, Skrill (Moneybookers) or bank transfer.

]]>http://www.soccerwidow.com/football-gambling/betting-knowledge/value-betting-academy/learning-centre/correct-assignment-football-data-levels-of-measurement/feed/0True Odds & Value Detector: International Club Competitions (with no head-to-head history)http://www.soccerwidow.com/football-gambling/betting-knowledge/value-betting-academy/learning-centre/true-odds-value-detector-international-club-competitions-with-no-head-to-head-history/
http://www.soccerwidow.com/football-gambling/betting-knowledge/value-betting-academy/learning-centre/true-odds-value-detector-international-club-competitions-with-no-head-to-head-history/#commentsWed, 19 Sep 2012 05:09:03 +0000http://soccerwidow.com/?p=2299This spreadsheet contains the calculations for international club tournaments between teams with no head-to-head history, applicable for competitions such as the UEFA Champions League, Europa League, or even the South American Copa Libertadores.

The instructional video below concentrates on the 1×2 odds section explaining the calculation of expected odds, and comparing them to market prices.

We also show you where to find records of the opening bookmaker odds and their changes over time, and how to interpret this information.

Later in the video we identify a method of easily identifying matches to analyse with the spreadsheet, those with possible strong discrepancies in their odds, by looking at the money matched and waiting to be matched for bets in the betting exchanges.

This is an educational video, aimed at those who wish to further understand odds calculation, and would like to know how market prices are set.

This video is about: Calculation of 1×2 (Home-Draw-Away) True Odds in UEFA Champions League games & How Market Prices are set

The examples used in the video are the UEFA Champions League matches Real Madrid vs. Manchester City, Dortmund vs. Ajax and Manchester United vs. Galatasaray.

The spreadsheet can be used to calculate the ‘true’ odds for any match of your choice for international tournaments between individual clubs. The accuracy of the calculations improves if the teams in question have a similar recent history in the tournament under analysis (for example, both team’s last 10 international club competition games have all been in the Champions League).

All you need to do is fill-in basic data:

the best odds you can find for the various betting options dealt with by the spreadsheet

the home team’s last 30 home game half-time and full-time scores in their domestic league and all other competitions (no friendlies)

the away team’s last 30 away game half-time and full-time scores in their domestic league and all other competitions (no friendlies)

the home team’s last 10 international club tournament home game half-time and full-time scores (or if not 10, as many within the last 5 years as can be gathered)

the away team’s last 10 international club tournament away game half-time and full-time scores (or if not 10, as many within the last 5 years as can be gathered)

The team stats can easily be found in sites such as www.soccerway.com or www.oddsportal.com.

Use a combination of an exchange site such as www.betfair.com and www.oddschecker.com for the best odds.

For each of the following events, the expected mathematical ‘value’ is automatically flagged up together with the expected probability (statistical mean) of winning the bet:

Match Result (home-draw-away) at both half-time and full-time

Draw No Bet

Win to Nil

Clean Sheet

Both Teams to Score

Over/Under ‘X’ Goals

Half-time/Full-time

Half-time and Full-time Correct Scores

The full realm of Asian Handicap options including all the half and quarter point thresholds

The spreadsheet calculates ‘true’ odds (expected probabilities), and compares market prices with the statistical probability of winning the bet to show you whether there is any ‘value’ in the bet and therefore whether it is financially worthwhile undertaking.

It should be noted that the spreadsheet is not a tool for automated betting. Although the tables provide vital information to improve the accuracy of predictions, the figures do not substitute for reading salient news and applying good judgment in addition.

Required Acumen

Ideally, you should already possess a basic understanding of odds and how they are calculated. The spreadsheet is a tool to identify potential bet candidates.

However, you need to understand what is meant by the term ‘value’ and also have a good idea how to spread risk with a well-structured betting portfolio. The spreadsheet is intermediate level and you should become entirely familiar with its mechanics before committing money to any bet recommendations suggested by it.

Good Excel skills would also be an advantage.

For beginners we offer a comprehensive course: Fundamentals of Sports Betting: Betting on Over/Under ‘X’ Goals, which is a step-by-step guide including exercises and tutorials on how to understand odds calculation. Although the example used is the popular over/under ‘X’ goals market, the principles can be just as easily applied to any market of your choosing.

Full support for all of Soccerwidow’s products is always provided should you require pre- or after-sales assistance or clarification. Feel free to ask any question via the Comment section below.

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]]>http://www.soccerwidow.com/football-gambling/betting-knowledge/value-betting-academy/learning-centre/true-odds-value-detector-international-club-competitions-with-no-head-to-head-history/feed/15True Odds & Value Detector: League Games with H2H Historyhttp://www.soccerwidow.com/football-gambling/betting-knowledge/value-betting-academy/odds-calculation-en/true-odds-value-detector-league-games-h2h-history/
http://www.soccerwidow.com/football-gambling/betting-knowledge/value-betting-academy/odds-calculation-en/true-odds-value-detector-league-games-h2h-history/#commentsWed, 29 Aug 2012 12:35:47 +0000http://www.fussballwitwe.com/?p=2235In conjunction with our regular match previews published in the German Betfair blog we are pleased to present our league match with head-to-head history ‘Value’ bet detector spreadsheet.

Our bet selections are always based on true odds calculations identifying mathematical ‘value’ in the markets. Of course, not every bet can win, but ‘value’ betting is the only reliable method of ensuring long-term betting profits.

‘VALUE’ bet detector: The Excel spreadsheet calculates the ‘true’ odds (= expected probabilities based on historical statistics) and then displays each ‘value’ bet recommendation. For every event included the expected values are calculated, compared to market prices, and finally the statistical probability of winning the bet is shown.

Soccerwidow follows the philosophy that only through identifying bets containing mathematical ‘value’ in the prices offered by bookmakers or exchanges is it possible to make consistent profits.

It should be noted that the spreadsheet is not a tool for automated betting. The tables provide vital information to improve the accuracy of your own predictions, and the figures do not substitute for reading salient news and applying good judgement.

The Excel spreadsheet offered for sale comes pre-filled with data from the Premier League game Liverpool v. Manchester City on 26/8/2012. Just delete or over-type this to analyse any match of your choosing.

Read a few sample match previews which apply ‘League Games with H2H History’ calculations:

Frequently asked questions:

Can I use the spreadsheet in other leagues?

Yes, the calculations apply for any league in the world. The only parameters are that the game in question must be between two teams which have played at least their last 25 home or away games in the same league. The calculations are based on the home team’s last 25 home games and the away team’s last 25 away games, in the same league. Also, both teams must have played the corresponding fixture at least 6 times in the last 10 years (in other words, the home team has hosted the away team at least 6 times in all competitions (not friendlies) in the last 10 years).

How long does it take to enter historical data into the spreadsheet?

This is a manual procedure and you will quickly find which sources are best for the full-time and half-time results of both teams in the 25 matches to be analysed, plus the head-to-head encounters. We recommend Football-Data, Betexplorer, Oddsportal and Soccerway, although there are a host of other sites specialising in historical statistics.

At the start, you will find data collection will take about 30 minutes per match including entering the best bookmaker odds you can find (try Betfair and Oddschecker).

Are the formulas for the spreadsheet calculations visible?

Yes, we have hidden none of the formulas.

Exactly which historical records do I have to input?

The full-time and half-time scores for both team’s last 25 matches (home games only for the home team, away games only for the away team), plus the same for the head-to-head encounters over the last 10 years.

What knowledge is required?

You should already have a understanding of odds and how they are calculated. The spreadsheet is just a tool to identify potential bet candidates. You will need to understand what is meant by the term ‘value’ and also have a good idea how to spread risk with a well-structured betting portfolio. The spreadsheet is intermediate level, and you should be become entirely familiar with its mechanics before committing money to any bet recommendations suggested by the spreadsheet.