Live H2O June 21 2009

We look occasionally at a category of gatherings of intent
to make the future brighter and more peaceful, or to help
the Earth. These celebrations are organized by individuals
and groups and use the web for communication of the intent
and for recruitment of as many people as possible to join
the moment. I received a note from Jan Poetschke asking
whether we might take a look at the Live H2O event:

Hello Mr. Nelson,

I wonder if somebody likes to analyze the data from
yesterday, because there was a world-wide concert for peace
going on - liveH2o.org.
The thousands of people who were praying, chanting and
making music around the globe should have had pretty
coherent mindsets and emotions.
Also many cultures around the planet celebrated the summer
solstice.

Greetings from Germany

Jan

The GCP event was set for 90 minutes as suggested in the
Live H2O website where
the main organizers propose that people "drum, pray and
chant with the vision,...". The timing I could find differed
in various descriptions, but there was some consistent focus
on 6PM Pacific time, with a 9 minute period that was
intended to progress in an 81 minute wave, for a total of 90
minutes. (I apologize for this less than optimal
description.)

In any case, the GCP time was set for
00:00 midnight to 01:30 June 22, GMT, corresponding to 18:00
on the west coast of the US.
The results show Chisquare 5392.885 on 5400 df for p = 0.525
and Z = -0.062. The history of the data shown in the
cumulative deviation graph has some interesting variation,
but does not show a consistent departure from expectation.

It is important to keep in mind that we have only a tiny
statistical
effect, so that it is always hard to distinguish signal from
noise. This means that every "success" might be largely
driven by chance, and every "null" might include a real
signal overwhelmed by noise. In the long run, a real effect
can
be identified only by patiently accumulating replications of
similar analyses.