March 27, 2014

New Mexico Miscellany

-Susana Martinez is in a good position to be reelected as Governor, but New Mexico voters don't think much of the possibility of her running for President in 2016. Only 17% of voters in the state think she should make a White House bid to 69% who believe she should sit it out. Even among Republican voters only 22% think she should seek that office to 59% who dissent.

Martinez would trail Hillary Clinton 53/39 in a hypothetical contest in the state. That does make her the strongest potential Republican candidate though. Clinton would also lead Rand Paul 51/36, Jeb Bush 53/37, Ted Cruz 54/37, Chris Christie 53/35, and Mike Huckabee 55/34. New Mexico hasn't been close in the last two Presidential elections and if Clinton runs that trend looks likely to continue in 2016.

-New Mexico voters are still pretty closely divided on the issue of gay marriage- 47% support it and 45% are opposed. But when it comes to the impact that its being legal for the last few months has had in the state there's a pretty strong consensus it hasn't been a big deal. Only 24% think it's had a negative impact on their lives with 76% saying either that it's had no impact at all (58%) or a positive effect (18%). There's no debate among voters in the state anymore when it comes to legal rights for same sex couples- 74%, including 64% of Republicans, support at least civil unions with only 24% opposed to any sort of legal recognition.

-New Mexico voters narrowly support legalizing recreational marijuana use, 48/46. Voters under 45 overwhelmingly support the idea, 57/39, suggesting it may just be a question of time. There's a pretty strong consensus in favor of medical marijuana there already- 70% support it to only 24% who are opposed and there's bipartisan support from Democrats (78/17), independents (77/20), and Republicans (52/38) alike.

-New Mexicans strongly support raising the minimum wage to $10 an hour, 58/32. As we find most places, the concept meets with favor from most Democrats (77/15) as well as about a third of Republicans (31/55). Voters are unhappy with the legislature's decision not to let them vote on a constitutional amendment to raise the minimum wage- 51% say they're less likely to vote for legislators who opposed letting the voters decide on the amendment compared to only 19% who consider it a positive. Perhaps partially because of unhappiness over that issue, Democrats hold a solid 47/38 advantage on the generic legislative ballot.

-Our first ever look at Martin Heinrich's approval rating finds 43% of voters approving of him and 36% disapproving, a +7 net rating pretty similar to his margin of victory in 2012.

-The green chiles vs. red chiles debate in New Mexico actually isn't much of a debate- voters in the state prefer green chiles by an overwhelming 66/21 margin.

-New Mexico voters don't have strong feelings when it comes to major league baseball teams in the state. 45% say they don't have a team they pull for with support scattered among the Dodgers at 10%, Red Sox and Rockies at 9%, Yankees at 7%, Diamondbacks at 6%, Cubs at 5%, and Braves and Rangers at 4% with those who do have one.

-New Mexicans generally have a positive opinion of the TV show Breaking Bad, set in the state. 36% view it favorably to 25% who have a negative perception of the show. There's a pretty big party divide in views about it with Democrats rating it positively 43/23 and Republicans rating it negatively 20/35. Susana Martinez would lead a hypothetical match up with the show's protagonist, Walter White, 52/26.

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