A tweet on display during a Republican convention in 2012.
Photograph: Spencer Platt/Getty Images

Twitter mentions are not a reliable way too predict elections and only indicate whether candidates are creating interest, not how many votes they will receive, a study has concluded.

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Researchers also found that Twitter’s “highly skewed” user base did not represent the voting population overall, and that Google searches might give a better indication of intentions at the ballot box.

The study in Social Science Computer Review focused on the 2013 German federal election and found that Twitter data was a more accurate measure of the level of interest in candidates than the level of support they would receive.

“Negative events, such as political scandals, as well as positively evaluated events, such as accomplishments, can [both] underlie attention for a party or candidate,” said the study.

Yet scandals and accomplishments affected the level of support for a candidate in completely different ways. “The analysis does not support the simple ‘more tweets, more votes’ formula,” the study found. For example, a video clip of a candidate’s campaign gaffe might lead to a spike in Twitter attention but not result in more overall political support.

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“The daily volume of Twitter messages referring to candidates or parties fluctuates heavily depending on the events of the day – such as televised leaders’ debates, high-profile interviews with candidates – or the coverage of political controversies and scandals,” the study said.

The data also showed that Twitter users did not necessarily reflect the demographics of the population as a whole. In the United States social media platforms like Twitter and Yik Yak are often more popular among millennial voters.

“Twitter’s user base is highly skewed and far from being representative of the population at large,” the study said.

Other data showed Google might be a more reliable indicator of voter support.

Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders, respective winners of the Republican and Democratic primaries in the state of New Hampshire, were the two parties’ top-searched-for candidates in the state, according to a report from Bloomberg.

Republican and Democratic contenders are vying for their parties’ nominations for the 8 November election to succeed President Barack Obama.