Wednesday, March 23, 2016

chasfreeman | American policies in the Middle East have produced a mess in which we
are estranged from all the key actors – Arab, Iranian, Israeli, and
Turkish – and on a different page than the Russians. The state of our
relations with the region is symbolized by the sight of U.S. diplomats
cowering behind barriers surrounding fortress embassies that resemble
nothing so much as modern-day Crusader castles. Diplomacy is all but
impossible when we must ask host governments to protect our diplomats
from their people by placing our embassies under perpetual siege by
police. The fact that other countries don’t have to do this is
suggestive of something. After so many years, it should be obvious that
bombing, drone warfare, and commandos just make things worse. It is
time for Americans to end our wars and support for the wars of others in
the Middle East and to try something else.

What might that be? Well, we might start by recognizing a few
unpalatable realities. In the Levant, the world brought into being by
Messrs. Sykes and Picot has ended. All of our bombers and all of our
men can’t put Humpty Dumpty together again. We and our friends in the
region are going to have to accept the rise of new states within changed
borders. Where we cannot fix things, we must at least do no harm.

The Arabs have made it clear that they recognize the reality of
Israel’s presence in their midst and do not expect it to disappear.
It’s clear that, if Israel did indeed disappear, this would be because
it did itself in, not because it was militarily overwhelmed. Israel has
had a free ride on the United States for forty years. It is in denial
about the ultimate consequences for it of moral self-destruction,
political self-compression, and rising personal insecurity. Israelis
will not address these perils without shock treatment. They need to
make short-term political sacrifices to secure domestic tranquility and
well-being over the long term.

If Americans could muster the political will, we could easily
administer the requisite tough love to Israel through selective
suspensions of the unconditional UN vetoes, aid, and tax subsidies that
make counterproductive behavior by the Jewish state cost-free. If we
are politically unable to cease the enablement and creation of moral
hazard for Israel, we should consider how best to minimize the damage to
ourselves as Israel self-destructs. We should not support or appear to
support Israeli policies we consider misguided.

Similarly, America should restructure its relationship with Saudi
Arabia and the Gulf Arabs to be more two-sidedly collaborative. Like
Israel, these countries have effectively declared their independence
from us. Their continued dependence on us does not oblige us to support
their policies. When these policies do not serve American purposes we
should withhold our backing for them.

Americans neither understand nor have any interest in involving
ourselves in theological rivalries between Sunnis and Shiites. When it
is in our interest to do so, we should feel free to cooperate with Iran,
as we do with Israel, rather than automatically deferring to Gulf Arab
(or Israeli) objections. Our policies in Syria are the palsied
offspring of an unholy marriage of convenience between liberal
interventionists and Gulf Arab rulers obsessed with deposing Bashar
al-Assad, establishing Sunni dominance in Syria, and breaking Syria’s
alliance with Iran.

But, with the exception of the Iranian angle, would these outcomes
necessarily serve U.S. interests? Is the unconditional support of the
Gulf Arabs for military dictatorship in Egypt likely to end well? Is
the perpetuation of the fighting in Yemen something we favor? It is
time to restructure U.S. relations with the Gulf Cooperation Council
countries and Iran to reflect the challenges of the post-Sykes-Picot and
Cold War eras, the need for mutual accommodation between Arabs and
Persians, and the rise of Daesh.

Greater flexibility in the U.S. relationship with the Gulf Arabs as
well as with Iran is essential to end our cold war with Iran and our hot
wars elsewhere in the region. It is necessary to restore a basis for a
balance of power in the Persian Gulf that can relieve us of the burden
of permanently garrisoning it. We should be looking to internationalize
the burden of assuring security of access to energy supplies and
freedom of navigation in the region. We should be using the United
Nations to forge a coalition of great powers and Muslim states to
contain and crush Daesh, criminalize terrorism, and build effective
international structures to deal with it.

It is time to cut a knot or two in the Middle East. Enough is now enough.