Thursday, 2 September 2010

UK Winter Forecast Update 2010/11

I have been overwhelmed with the recent activity and interest that my work has been receiving, there are just a few facts that I need to clear up so everyone is fully aware of the current situation as a whole.

I am currently prediciting that the UK and Northern Europe will experience at the very least a winter similar to the last, or as I expect much worse with heavy snowfall due to the following FACTS!

1. The Gulf Stream

The gulf stream has shown signs of waining in recent years which can alter climate in the UK and Northern Europe, however this summer has shown an unusual amount of anomalies as highlighted in my previous posts. The data screen below is part of an update that still shows a clear breakage in the gulf loop, the main engine that drives the gulf stream.

The forecast information for the next seven days appears to show an eddy that attempts to reconnect with the gulf stream but fails miserably before disintegrating, maybe because the current is not strong enough? It is important to remember that this is only a forecast, so I will keep you updated when I know more with accurate results, appears very strange to me though.

It is however also very easy to identify the lack of current flowing towards the UK in the above data screen. The gulf stream is often referred to as the UK central heating system, any slight anomalies can often lead to cooling and result in our temperatures being similar to Newfoundland who are on the same latitude as us but without the advantage of the gulf stream.

The current activity of the gulf stream therefore suggests = Cooling of the Northern Hemisphere & the UK

2. The sun has and always will control the climate and weather. The current lack of sunspots even with todays technology remain at very low levels, in fact they place us right back in the 1700s when we was in the midst of the little ice age. Low sunspot activity correlates very well with the cooling of the planet and is also influential on ocean circulation some 5 to 25 years later.

The current solar activity of the sun therefore suggests = Global cooling

3. The shrinking of the upper atmosphere or better known as the thermosphere ("heat sphere") results in the rapid cooling of our planet, as it decreases in correlation with low sunspot activity. The fact that this is called the "heat sphere" says it all really. The current condition will allow space and volcanic debris to stay in the atmosphere for longer periods and block out the sun even further.

The current state of the thermosphere suggests = Global cooling

4. The icelandic volcano debris in the atmosphere and the prolonged effect from the thermosphere. It is a well known fact that volcanes can largely influence the climate on earth in terms of cooling, it is also worth noting that mount sinabung also erupted for the first time in four hundred years earlier this week in Indonesia.

The current volcanic activity in regards to the icelandic volcano suggests = Cooling of the Northern Hemisphere and the UK.

5. The la nina always follows directly after the el nino that we have just currently experienced, which explains our slightly better than average summer earlier on in the year. The la nina delivers ocean cooling that cools large masses of water which include the north atlantic, the immediate signs are that this is going to be huge with major effects over the next several months at the very least, this further suggests a cooling of the northern hemisphere and the UK. The huge sea surface temperature declines below in comparison to 2009 and 2010 are a huge cause for concern.

So there is my basis on the severity of the cold for this coming winter and next due to the lag effect that comes with some of these processes, which will in return drastically effect the summer and winter of the UK in 2011/12.

Another area with a lot of interest is my view on the heavy snowfall, low sunspot activity often results in more cloud cover, this further cloud cover can block out the sunlight that we need and result in heavy snowfalls and further cooling, this is also connected to the thermosphere as mentioned in number 3 above due to the amount of radiation it is receiving from an already quiet sun. Another influence of heavy snowfall for the UK is the position of the jet streams and based on last year and this year, this could also influence heavy snow.

My theory has and always will be based on the activity of the sun and how it correlates with many other factors as mentioned including ocean circualtion. I simply take in to account what is going on around us and how it may effect our near and future climate, I then use this to correlate the likely climatic outcome which has proved successful so far on four separate occasions with the UK met office and the Nasa science behind the sunspot activity in 2008. I am therefore suggesting that there are very cold times ahead that could even replica little ice age conditions or worse. The following wikipedia article on the Maunder Minimum states "a connection between low sunspot activity and the little ice age, though it is believed that there was another factor that amplified its effects on Northern Europe and the UK", I suggest that the other factors are what I am mentioning right now in regards to the cold factors, we could well be heading for a new maunder minimum or little/full blown ice age. Only time will tell but the immediate signs are not very comforting and people need to be aware as this is now a much bigger threat than any global warming!

I have informed the UK Met Office that they need to issue an emergency winter forecast to warn people of what is about to happen. Remember I told you about this in September when we experience another severe winter this year. Why could the met office not?

Below are the emails I have sent and received:

Dear Met Office,

I thought that this might help you to possibly reinstate your seasonal forecasts, you really should read this from bottom to top in date order.

http://globalcoolingnewiceageuk.blogspot.com/

I do hope you enjoy my work and I am not saying I am correct about everything, although I do feel very strongly in regards to sunspots and its effects on the ocean circulation/global cooling. You will notice from the date stamps that I have proven on a consecutive number of times that yourself and Nasa scientist David Hathaway was wrong. I am sorry if that appears as me being rude, I promise you I am not, I am just trying to be a good scientist.

Kind Regards

J Madden

-

Dear Mr Madden

Thank you for your feedback and link which will be for our Hadley Centre to read and comment upon. I know they are always particularly busy and it is a fine balancing act that we have to be careful not to ask our scientists to step away from their core work too often to deal with enquiries or read drafts of papers written by the general public.

Having said that, we did make a press release about why we are no longer issuing seasonal forecasts and this can be found at: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/corporate/pressoffice/2010/pr20100305b.html . It is unlikely therefore, at this time, that we will re-instate them for public consumption.

Thank you for getting in touch.

-

date26 August 2010 15:25

subjectRe: re: Seasonal Forecasting - URGENT

Hi Sarah,

Thanks for your speedy response, I would appreciate it if someone does get the time to read it and be ever so greatful. Maybe if they take these factors in to consideration and find they have any value at all, they could actually issue an emergency winter forecast to warn people of what is coming, I mean surely they have a right to know, you could save lives due to awareness and you can make this possible. As I see it at present the UK is in for a very severe winter this year and I feel people should be warned. There are four or five major factors in play that will influence a severe winter for the UK

1. Current sunspot activity

2. La nina

3. Icelandic Volcano

4. The shrinking of the earths upper atmosphere

5. The gulf stream if there is no major improvement

Best Wishes

J.Madden
-

I have also informed the UK tabloids from the exhaustive list below that they need to issue an emergency winter forecast to warn people of what is about to happen with not one single response so far.

The observer
The evening standard
Morning Star
The people
The guardian
The independent
Financial times
Telegraph
Daily star
News of the world
Daily mail
Express
Daily mirror
The sun
Metro

Below is a copy of the email I have sent:

Dear (tabloid name),

I am writing this in hope that you will seriously review my work and scientific based theories, for the consideration of publication within your newspaper.

I am a studying geographer with a particular interest in climatic change and rapid climate change, especially in regards to current solar activity and oceanic changes such as the gulf stream. I have in the past correctly criticised the science of NASA scientist David Hathaway, whilst also outsmarting the UK met office with their seasonal forecasts for several successions, which they have now decided to scrap altogether.

I also happen to have some very urgent news in regards to the severity of this coming winter for the UK and Northern Europe.

Below are links that reveal my actual story and research to date, which is available in the form of blogs due to the time and date stamps that they carry with them. It would be much appreciated if you could read all of them in date order by scrolling from the bottom of the blog upwards, without discarding it straight away due to the title, this really could pose a grave threat to the future climate of the UK and Northern Europe, possibly starting this winter.
http://globalcoolingnewiceageuk.blogspot.com/

Having gone previously against the met office and David Hathaway to prove them wrong, I feel a matter of urgency in making people aware of what could well be around the corner in terms of my scientific theories.

I must however thank a certain person called Richard Clarke from Leeds for his influence on my decision to finally get around to doing this and start tweeting, so thanks Richard lets hope it raises some vital awareness!

2 comments:

Finally, someone whose eyes can see the obvious (but complex)! It's such a startling revelation that the sun can affect our climate, isn't it?I have collected weather stats since 1979, first in Lincs, then in Scotland. In 1981, I started to really look at sunspot activity. Using very basic science, I calculated that the next really severe winter wound be around 2010. I still have the written evidence. There are too many vested interests in climate prediction these days. It's patently obvious we shouldn't be poisoning the planet, we shouldn't need inacurate stories about global warming to behave ourselves. Finally, the more respected scientists are beginning to agree with the clear picture of over 300 years worth of correlation betwen Northern European winters and sunspot minima.

I expect this next winter to be dominated by east/north east winds, very cold spells, and sudden heavy snowfall. Of course there will be mild spells - but few and far between.

General media weather forecasters and the like seem to follow each other around, like lemmings off a cliff. I believe this is due to Govt and industry, both of whom follow each other around.. Industry tells the Govt what to make the public think due to the next planned couple of decades worth of capitalist planning.. I used to be a Harbour Master and previously was always at sea, so the weather has always been of great interest to me.. The met office and the like didn't make sense to me..(them not putting their necks on the line with seasonal forecasts anymore proving this) What they were saying has been influenced by politicians, and we all know that that is a sure fire way of outing your statements as pure lies. It is greatly refreshing to hear "alternative" views which gives us weather bores choice.. Hopefully more learned people like yourself will merge to come to give a national / international service we need.. Sometimes the truth hurts, but its generally what we need to hear the most..Kindest regards.