Bilbray’s seat seen as secure

Republicans, neutral analysts and even Democratic congressional campaign strategists in Washington aren’t buying the notion that Bilbray is vulnerable.

“He faced challenges in a couple of bad years for Republicans and survived handily,” said Gary Jacobson, a political scientist at the University of California San Diego. “So I don’t think he has anything to worry about this time around. Some of these districts have been drifting Democratic, but this looks like a pretty Republican year, so I don’t think it’s enough.”

The other local House members — Democrats Bob Filner of Chula Vista and Susan Davis of San Diego, and Republicans Darrell Issa of Vista and Duncan Hunter of Alpine — represent districts where their party enjoys a huge registration advantage, and they routinely win double-digit election victories.

Democrats have made big gains in Congress in two successive elections. But the pendulum is expected to swing back as the country is gripped by high unemployment and a soaring budget, while wounds from the rancorous health care debate are still raw.

David Wasserman, who analyzes House races for the nonpartisan Cook Political Report, said he believes Republicans would pick up 25 to 35 House seats if the election were held today.

“That’s a pretty scary forecast for Democrats because it’s not far from the 40 seats that Republicans need to take control of the House,” Wasserman said.

Unlike past years, Democratic congressional campaign strategists in Washington are not even threatening to target Bilbray for defeat. Rather, they say they will focus their efforts in California against three Republicans: Dan Lungren of Gold River, Ken Calvert of Corona and Mary Bono Mack of Palm Springs.

“It’s certainly something that we’re paying attention to,” said Andrew Stone, spokesman for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee. “At the same time, our focus is on those three districts.”

Congressional campaign handicapper Larry Sabato, director of the University of Virginia Center for Politics, noted that Bilbray has demonstrated resilience over the years.

“People like Bilbray, they’re tough,” he said. “They’ve been hardened by tough races. They tend not to make mistakes. It’s the ones who skated through all these years that when they find themselves in a difficult environment, they don’t know what to do.”