Monday, March 17, 2008

The Bracket Matrix has posted his final results matrix for all 53 brackets he monitors on his Bracket Matrix blog. He has ranked the top brackets by category (number of exact seeds, etc.) and also lists overall results based on two bracket scoring systems. One of them, proposed by Gary Parrish at CBS Sportsline, gives bracketologists one point for every team, exact seed, and seed with one line correct. A better and fairer system, proposed by our buddy Paymon at PHSports, gives brackets three points for each correct team, two points for each exact seed, and one point for each team within one seed line.

Overall, we are very pleased with how we fared. We set career highs in all three of the above statistics, and cracked the 60 mark in terms of seeding teams within one line. When all of the bracketologists tally up their statistics, we think we might have the best overall bracket.

We are obviously disappointed that Illinois State was left out and that Oregon got in. The Ducks' seeding at a 9 is ridiculous; they should have been one of the last four teams in at best. What ended up killing Illinois State's chances was probably the fact that other mid-majors like Western Kentucky and San Diego stole bids. The committee only gave six at-large bids to mid-majors and unfortunately (and we think unfairly), that list did not include the Redbirds.

In the next couple of days, we will post our Final Four picks and our complete brackets. We will also set up the annual Bracketology 101 Tournament Challenge group on ESPN.com.

Saturday, March 15, 2008

The BreakdownHere's how we see things through Friday's games. A lot can (and probably will) change on Saturday, and those changes will be reflected in our final bracket when it's released on Sunday.

Our final Field of 65 will be released in stages throughout the day tomorrow and our final complete bracket will be posted sometime around 4:30 p.m. ET. We plan on having our fourth annual Selection Sunday live chat at 4:45 p.m. ET to discuss the bracket.

Friday, March 14, 2008

The BreakdownThe weakest bubble in recent memory showed its true colors once again last night. A whopping 10 teams playing for their tournament lives (Arizona, Arizona State, UMass, Oregon, Villanova, Florida, Maryland, Mississippi, New Mexico, and UAB) all lost games, and many did so in pitiful fashion. UMass blew a 17-point second half lead to Charlotte, Maryland blew an early 20-5 lead against Boston College, Florida trailed by 23 at the half before losing by 11 to Alabama, and even Baylor, who wasn't in the bubble discussion heading into the Big XII tourney, now is after losing to (ugh) Colorado in double OT in their opening round game.

The night's ridiculous results were good news for a couple of bubble teams, specifically Ohio State (who jumps back into the field on the eve of their huge Big Ten tourney showdown with Michigan State) and VCU, whose early exit in the Colonial doesn't look as bad now that a ton of other bubble teams did the same. The upsets should also help mid-major bubble boys like lllinois Sate, South Alabama, and Saint Mary's feel a lot safer about their chances as they count down the hours until Selection Sunday.

Thursday, March 13, 2008

The BreakdownWe hate to say we told you so, but....when we took Syracuse out of our bracket almost two months ago (January 14th to be exact), we did so because we thought that their end-of-the-year schedule was ultimately going to be too much for the young Orange squad to handle. We took a lot of criticism for sticking to our prediction and refusing to put them back in the field ever since then (even after some good wins), but as it turned out, everything played out just as we thought. 'Cuse's tourney hopes were officially extinguished by Villanova on Wednesday in the opener of the Big East tournament, as 'Nova caught fire in the second half and cruised to an 82-63 victory. The blowout win was obviously a huge resume booster for the Wildcats, who may now be just a good showing against Georgetown away from locking down a bid. If 'Nova doesn't play well against the Hoyas, they are going to have to pull hard for Memphis, Xavier and BYU to win their conference tournies and hope that no more huge upsets occur to feel safe on Sunday.

Wednesday, March 12, 2008

The BreakdownAfter a wild set of games on Monday, it turned out to be a pretty quiet Tuesday - just the way teams on the bubble like it. In the biggest game of the night, Butler avoided Monday's mid-major upset bug and kept the Horizon a one-bid league by beating Cleveland State by 15, and favorites Western Kentucky and Oral Roberts earned automatic bids by winning the Sun Belt and Summit, respectively.

The real fun starts up again Wednesday as the Big East, A-10, Pac-10, and MAC open tournament play. The headliner, of course, is the Syracuse-Villanova 8-9 game at the Garden. The loser of that game is toast, and thanks to the events of Monday night, the winner (especially if it's Villanova) still might need to knock off Georgetown in the quarters to be safe. In the Pac-10, Arizona faces Oregon State in an obvious must-win, and in the A-10, Dayton faces Saint Louis and St. Joseph's takes on Fordham. A win by the eighth-seeded Flyers sets up a potential win-and-your-in showdown with Xavier in the quarters on Thursday. In the MAC, the storyline remains Kent State and its quest for an automatic/at-large bid. The Golden Flashes, whose resume took a slight hit Monday with St. Mary's' loss, face the winner of Wednesday's Toledo-Bowling Green game on Thursday.

Two more automatic bids will be handed out Wednesday. In the Northeast, Sacred Heart shoots for its first ever NCAA bid against Mount St. Mary's, who last made the dance in 1999, and in the Big Sky, top-seeded Portland State faces Northern Arizona.

Tuesday, March 11, 2008

The BreakdownThis wasn't exactly what teams in "Last Four Land" had in mind. San Diego's upset of Gonzaga in the WCC title game and South Alabama's stunning loss in the Sun Belt semis meant that two at-large teams - VCU and Ohio State - got knocked out of the field, and meant that a handful of other big conference bubble boys slid a little bit further from the dance.

Ohio State fans can at least take comfort in the fact that unlike VCU, their team still has a chance to improve its resume. A win over Michigan State on Friday will put the Buckeyes back in the bracket, and could spell doom for teams like Oregon (if the Ducks don' t beat Wazzu), the Villanova-Syracuse winner if the winner doesn't win a second game (especially if it's Villanova), or UMass, Arkansas, Arizona, or Arizona State depending on their respective conference tourney showings. VCU's chances, meanwhile, are in serious trouble. Their decent but not spectacular resume looked good Sunday night, but it's already two spots worse after Monday's upsets and there are six days of games still left to play.

One team that is probably safe regardless of further chaos is South Alabama. The Jaguars would have locked up a bid with a Sun Belt finals appearance, but losing in the semis on their home floor to Middle Tennessee State makes their future a little more cloudy. In the end, though, their solid RPI (38), their win over Mississippi State (which is looking better and better) and their season sweep of Western Kentucky should be enough to grab an at-large. That's assuming, of course, that there aren't too many more bid stealers or huge upsets.

Monday, March 10, 2008

The BreakdownThe already hard-to-figure bubble got even more complicated this weekend. Here's how we see things right now, with seven days to go until Selection Sunday:

Despite losing at Oregon, we think that Arizona is still safe. They obviously have to beat Oregon State in their Pac-10 opener to stay safe, but if they do that, we think the Wildcats' SOS, their RPI, and the return of Nic Wise will sway the committee into giving them a bid. In any other year, they'd be done at 8-10, but this year, the way the bubble is, even two games under .500 in conference can get you in.

We also think that Illinois State is safe despite being blown out by Drake in the MVC final. After finishing second in conference, all the Redbirds needed to do was get to the conference tourney final to get a bid. Kentucky, meanwhile, is looking better and better and is up to a 10 seed in or latest field after beating Florida on Sunday. The Wildcats are the fourth best team in the SEC right now, and will probably be able to survive even if they lose to (we'll assume) Mississippi in the SEC quarters.

As for some other bubble issues:

We still aren't 100% sold on Ohio State, and we think they probably have to beat Michigan State again in the Big Ten tourney to get a bid, but right now, they're in. The committee does love teams that are playing late, and OSU certainly fits the bill...

Oregon needs to beat Washington State in their Pac-10 tourney game to lock down a bid, and the way they are playing right now, we think they'll be able to pull the upset...

Even with their semifinal loss to William & Mary, we think VCU deserves a bid (right now, at least). The Rams dominated the Colonial's regular season and, while they don't have a Top 50 win, their wins over Maryland, Houston, Richmond, and Bradley aren't shabby. VCU also has its own NCAA success and the Colonial's success in past years going for them, plus they have committee chair and George Mason AD Thomas J. O'Connor in their corner in the selection room. If mid-major teams aren't going to get a few extra bids this year, when will they?...

Yes, we still have Villanova (and not Syracuse) in as our final Big East team. As fate would have it, the two teams meet in the first round of the Big East tournament. The loser of that game is done; the winner might need one more to be totally safe. We've been saying for over two months now that the Orange wouldn't make the tourney. We're not about to jump ship now - we're sticking with 'Nova...

We considered putting Temple in as a third A-10 team this week, but in the end we decided against it. To get a bid, the Owls have to beat UMass in the A-10 semis. A spot in the final (on top of their second place regular season finish) should get Temple in, and it might knock UMass out, depending on what transpires elsewhere...

The above scenario also applies to New Mexico. If they beat UNLV in the MWC semis, they're in, and the Rebels might be squeezed out...

In the SEC, Mississippi and Florida each need two wins to get a bid. If Florida can get by Alabama in the first round, they face Mississippi State; if Mississippi gets past Georgia, they get Kentucky...

UAB's at-large chances are on life support after getting embarrassed by Memphis on Saturday. Even if they get to the C-USA final and lose to the Tigers again, we don't think they deserve a bid. We'll see if the committee agrees...

And finally, the ACC is down to a four-bid league after Maryland's pitiful loss to Virginia and Virginia Tech's loss at Clemson. The Terps need to beat BC and Clemson in the ACC tourney to get back in the mix, and the Hokies (after a first round bye) need to get past Miami/N.C. State and then have a good showing against Carolina in the semis. Even that might not be enough for a team that, despite a nice 9-7 conference record, has no Top 50 wins and sports a less-than-impressive RPI (57)...

Out This BracketMaryland, Virginia Tech, UAB, UNC-Asheville, Robert Morris

In This BracketOhio State, Oregon, George Mason, Winthrop, Sacred Heart

Friday, March 07, 2008

The BreakdownThe only major question that needed to be answered in this Friday bracket was whether Arizona State would hold on to its spot in the field after losing at Oregon. We considered the Ducks and St. Joseph’s as replacements, but in the end we stuck with the Sun Devils. We think that Arizona will win at Oregon on Saturday, which would give the Ducks 10 conference losses and burst their bubble. The bigger debate was ASU vs. St. Joseph’s, and we almost went with the Hawks, but we couldn’t get over the fact that even with their win over Xavier last night, their resume is still pretty unattractive. They have no OOC resume and their only other Top 50 wins are against a UMass team that is clinging to a bid in its own right at the moment. To get in, St. Joe’s needs to win at Dayton Saturday and get the three seed in the A-10 tournament, avoiding Xavier until the final. A berth and the final and they’re almost certainly in, but they’re not there yet.

A couple more tidbits:

Villanova’s game at Providence Saturday got a whole lot more interesting after the Friars’ upset of UConn on Thursday night…

Ohio State is looking a lot better after beating Purdue, but the fact that they have to beat Michigan State twice in a row coming up makes it impossible to put them in yet…

Look out for Mississippi…

Even if Virginia Tech wins at Clemson Sunday, they still aren’t assured a bid. They have a very good chance of facing Maryland in their first ACC tourney game, which would be an elimination game for both…

Syracuse has a chance to triple its Top 50 win total in the next week (from 1 to 3) if it can beat Marquette and win its first round Big East tourney game. If they do that, and then lose to a Georgetown or Louisville in the next round, they would be a very tough call at 20-13 and essentially 10-10 in conference. Will the committee help out a team it screwed over last year? We’ll see...

*Note: Our next bracket will be released on Monday. It will be updated daily next week leading up to Selection Sunday.

Missouri Valley QuarterfinalsIt wouldn’t be a surprise if any of the top four seeds win this tournament. The most interesting team here is Illinois State…if they get knocked off by Southern Illinois in the semis, will their second place finish (by two games) in conference and their season sweeps of SIU and Creighton be enough to get them an at-large?

Ohio Valley SemifinalsTop seed Austin Peay and No. 2 seed Murray State appear to be on a collision course to the final.

Colonial TournamentFirst round action kicks off in what should be a very competitive tourney. VCU faces the winner of Hofstra-Towson in the quarters, and could face a hot Old Dominion team (who beat them at home) in the semis. The Rams will be a very interesting at-large candidate if they get knocked off.

West Coast TournamentHost San Diego faces the winner of Friday’s Portland-Pepperdine game in the quarterfinals. The Toreros, who have won 10 of 12, hold the key to the WCC potentially being a three-bid league.

Southern Conference TournamentWill Davidson’s 20-0 conference record mean anything if they get tripped up here? It's hard to see the committee leaving them out (this year especially).

Monday, March 03, 2008

The BreakdownPicking the last few at-large teams is always extremely difficult at this point in the season, but this year it has become ridiculous. There are probably about 58 teams that deserve bids at this point, and everyone else – on the good side of the bubble and the bad – is playing like they have Spring Break trips to Cancun already booked. We really had to hold our noses putting the last three teams in the field and it was difficult to envision scenarios for the last few teams to make the field.

In the end, though, we settled on the following. Maryland, after their huge win at Wake Forest, made it back into the bracket this week. They could have really secured themselves a bid if they would have held on against Clemson. We went with Virginia Tech for the last at-large bid, and the only reason they got it is because of their two wins over the Terps. Both teams still have work to do and the only way both will make it is if Miami ends up as the 4th or 5th place team in the conference. That way Maryland and Virginia Tech won't meet in an ACC tourney quarterfinal elimination game. Virginia Tech has the opportunity to get to 10 wins in conference this week, which could end up being their golden ticket to the tourney (even if they lose in the ACC quarterfinals to Miami or Maryland). If they only manage to get to 9-7 that means they will need one or two more wins in the conference tourney (two if they don't finish in the top four in the conference). Maryland needs to take care of business this week at Virginia. If they manage to get to the semifinals of the ACC tourney, they will lock down a bid. Anything less and they will have to sweat it out on Selection Sunday and hope fellow bubble teams go down. Florida State has also worked itself back into the picture in the last week, but will have to win two this week (at UNC, Miami) to have a chance.

Despite dropping two games this week, Villanova managed to hang on to their bid (because everyone else played so poorly). They need to win their next three to have any chance at a bid (USF, at Providence, and most likely Cincinnati). We like their chances of winning their next three much better than we like Syracuse winning its next three, so we went with the Wildcats.

We still like Kentucky to be able to get an at-large bid even without Patrick Patterson. They played well without him at Tennessee on Sunday and the schedule really breaks in their favor down the stretch. We like their chances to go 2-0 this week and finish up at 12-4 in conference which would give them second place in the SEC East. This would give them a very favorable draw in the SEC tourney since they wouldn't have to worry about Vanderbilt or Tennessee until the championship. Last week, we said that for the SEC to get six bids everything needed to break right, which meant that Florida had to beat Mississippi State. With the Gators' tough schedule remaining (Tennessee, at Kentucky) we no longer like their chances at getting a bid.

We went with two bids out of C-USA for the first time this season. As we see it right now second place in conference and a trip to the C-USA final may actually be enough to get a bid in two weeks. UAB is playing better ball then Houston right now so we went with them. They also have a better opportunity to prove themselves with their game at Memphis this week.

You will also notice that for the first time since the beginning of the season the A-10 is down to a two-bid league. Too much parity is killing the league as you have 12 teams within four games of each other and nine teams within two games of each other. The conference is wide open for one of the bubble teams (St. Joe's, Dayton, Temple, URI) to make a deep run into the conference tourney and steal one of the last at-large bids to the dance. It's just hard to pick which team will be able to make that run right now with everyone being so hot and cold and with so much potential change in the standings before the conference tourney. We'll watch things closely throughout the final week of the regular season and see if someone emerges.

Oregon was our 66th team this week. They have a great opportunity with the Arizona schools coming in this week to make a big statement and play themselves back into the field. They just have not been playing well enough lately to give us confidence in them winning both games. Plus, if we included Oregon in the field we would have seven teams in from the Pac-10, which at this point seems like an impossible scenario to play out.

*Note: Our next bracket will be released on Friday. Starting next Monday, we will make daily updates.

Arizona State at OregonThis is a must win for the Ducks, while a win for the Sun Devils would pretty much lock up their bid (barring an upset against Oregon State).

Xavier at St. Joseph'sThe Hawks need to win this one and on the road against Dayton to have a legitimate shot at an at-large.

Arizona at Oregon StateThe Wildcats need to take care of business in Oregon this week. The Pac-10 doesn't have a good track record of teams getting in at .500 in league play (it's never happened), nevermind under .500.

Cal at USCA win for the Trojans locks down their bid.

Stanford at UCLAA battle for first place in the Pac-10 as the Bruins look to hold onto their #1 seed.

Big South SemifinalsAll 4 top seeds moved on so it should be 2 good games.

Northeast Conference TournamentFirst round action in what should be a competitive tournament.

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