Yesterday, I rolled out Game Scripts, a way to measure the flow of every game since 1940. The sum of each team’s Game Script in each game can be used to give us an average Game Script score on the season. You might think that this number would be a good proxy for how dominant a team was, and that’s largely true: the teams with the highest game script scores tend to have been the most dominant teams. However, there are some reasons to be cautious with this approach: game scripts are not adjusted for strength of schedule and in any given game, the losing team can end up with a better score than the winning team. That said, here are the teams with the highest Game Scripts since 1940:

Rk

Year

Team

League

W-L-T

PF

PA

SCRIPT

1

1942

CHI

NFL

11-0-0

376

84

13.5

2

1948

CHI

NFL

10-2-0

375

151

11.3

3

1941

CHI

NFL

10-1-0

396

147

10.4

4

1948

SFO

AAFC

12-2-0

495

248

10.4

5

2007

NWE

NFL

16-0-0

589

274

10.3

6

1968

BAL

NFL

13-1-0

402

144

10.1

7

1948

PHI

NFL

9-2-1

376

156

10.1

8

1947

CLE

AAFC

12-1-1

410

185

10

9

1946

CLE

AAFC

12-2-0

423

137

10

10

1949

PHI

NFL

11-1-0

364

134

9.5

11

1969

MIN

NFL

12-2-0

379

133

9.4

12

1954

CLE

NFL

9-3-0

336

162

9.2

13

1999

STL

NFL

13-3-0

526

242

9.1

14

1973

MIA

NFL

12-2-0

343

150

9.1

15

2001

STL

NFL

14-2-0

503

273

8.9

16

1961

HOU

AFL

10-3-1

513

242

8.8

17

1951

CLE

NFL

11-1-0

331

152

8.8

18

1972

MIA

NFL

14-0-0

385

171

8.7

19

1998

MIN

NFL

15-1-0

556

296

8.6

20

1973

RAM

NFL

12-2-0

388

178

8.5

21

1983

WAS

NFL

14-2-0

541

332

8.4

22

1984

SFO

NFL

15-1-0

475

227

8.4

23

1948

CLE

AAFC

14-0-0

389

190

8.3

24

1949

SFO

AAFC

9-3-0

416

227

8.2

25

1998

DEN

NFL

14-2-0

501

309

8.1

26

1968

DAL

NFL

12-2-0

431

186

8

27

1966

KAN

AFL

11-2-1

448

276

7.9

28

1995

SFO

NFL

11-5-0

457

258

7.7

29

1962

GNB

NFL

13-1-0

415

148

7.7

30

1953

CLE

NFL

11-1-0

348

162

7.6

31

1971

DAL

NFL

11-3-0

406

222

7.6

32

1944

PHI

NFL

7-1-2

267

131

7.6

33

1948

CRD

NFL

11-1-0

395

226

7.6

34

1960

CLE

NFL

8-3-1

362

217

7.5

35

1980

RAM

NFL

11-5-0

424

289

7.4

36

2010

NWE

NFL

14-2-0

518

313

7.4

37

2011

GNB

NFL

15-1-0

560

359

7.4

38

1976

BAL

NFL

11-3-0

417

246

7.4

39

1975

MIN

NFL

12-2-0

377

180

7.3

40

1975

PIT

NFL

12-2-0

373

162

7.3

41

1992

DAL

NFL

13-3-0

409

243

7.3

42

1969

KAN

AFL

11-3-0

359

177

7.3

43

1964

BAL

NFL

12-2-0

428

225

7.2

44

1997

DEN

NFL

12-4-0

472

287

7.2

45

1968

OAK

AFL

12-2-0

453

233

7.2

46

1945

RAM

NFL

9-1-0

244

136

7

47

1943

CHI

NFL

8-1-1

303

157

7

48

1967

OAK

AFL

13-1-0

468

233

7

49

1963

NYG

NFL

11-3-0

448

280

7

50

1994

SFO

NFL

13-3-0

505

296

6.9

The teams with the highest game scripts last year? Green Bay (7.4), New Orleans (5.6) and Houston (5.4), while the Rams (-6.4), Colts (-7.2), and Bucs (-8.7) were at the bottom of the league. But let’s get to the real point of using Game Scripts — to help put passing and rushing ratios in context.

Last year, the Buccaneers had the second highest effective pass/run ratio in the league (defined as total pass attempts divided by rushes plus total pass attempts, but with all kneels and spikes excluded). But that’s misleading, because Tampa Bay had the worst Game Script in the league. Conversely, were Houston and San Francisco really the second and third most run-heavy teams in the NFL last year? The table below lists each team from highest to lowest pass/run ratio:

Tm

Pass

Rush

P/R

SCRIPT

DET

702

350

66.7%

0.7

TAM

614

336

64.6%

-8.7

TEN

606

364

62.5%

0.2

NOR

682

424

61.7%

5.6

WAS

627

392

61.5%

-1.9

ARI

602

378

61.4%

-3.5

GNB

590

373

61.3%

7.4

NYG

616

390

61.2%

-1

BUF

596

384

60.8%

-2.1

DAL

605

396

60.4%

1.1

NWE

643

425

60.2%

4.3

IND

564

375

60.1%

-7.2

CLE

607

405

60%

-3.9

STL

604

402

60%

-6.4

SDG

610

416

59.5%

1.2

ATL

614

432

58.7%

3.9

PIT

579

418

58.1%

4

NYJ

583

436

57.2%

-0.8

PHI

582

437

57.1%

3.7

BAL

577

439

56.8%

4.1

CAR

552

435

55.9%

1.4

SEA

555

438

55.9%

-0.4

MIN

559

442

55.8%

-2.8

CIN

560

445

55.7%

-0.6

OAK

546

459

54.3%

-1.7

CHI

519

449

53.6%

1.9

MIA

522

456

53.4%

2.6

KAN

532

476

52.8%

-4

JAX

512

474

51.9%

-3.5

SFO

496

477

51%

4.7

HOU

494

533

48.1%

5.4

DEN

469

537

46.6%

-3.7

But we need to consider the passing ratios in light of the Game Scripts. Teams like Green Bay and New Orleans, and to a lesser extent New England, Atlanta, and Pittsburgh would have passed much more frequently if they weren’t racing out to large leads. Think back to the ’99 Rams, the first edition of the “Greatest Show on Turf” and the only team to win the Super Bowl. You surely think of them as a pass-heavy team, with Kurt Warner, Isaac Bruce, Torry Holt, Marshall Faulk, Az-Zahir Hakim and Ricky Proehl. In 1999, NFL teams passed on 57.1% of all plays. The ’99 Rams passed on 56.6% of their plays that season. That’s right: if so inclined, you could paint a picture that the ’99 Rams were more of a running team than a passing team.

An even more recent example would be the ’07 Patriots. On average, teams passed on 56.6% of plays in ’07; the high-flying, 16-0 Patriots passed on 57.4% of their pass plays, barely more than league average. These odd results happen every season, including 2011. Would you have guessed that the Cardinals and pre-Robert Griffin III Redskins both passed on a higher percentage of their plays than the Packers?

Controlling for a team’s pass/run ratio based on their Game Script is difficult, since they involve completely different units. There is a solution to this problem, although watch out: it involves math. What I did was calculated the standard deviation for each of these metrics to come up with ratings that are similar in meaning to PFR’s passing index numbers. A score of 115 means a team is one standard deviation above average; a score of 85 means a team is one standard deviation below, 70 means two standard deviations below, etc.

How do we calculate them?

For game scripts, the average is always zero. For each league and for each season (so as to not combine the NFL and AFL) since 1940, I computed the standard deviation of game scripts among teams. This was necessary because, as you would expect, the standard deviation used to be considerably higher than it has been over the past 30 years. For each team, the formula is: 100 + 15 * (Game Script Average / Standard Deviation for all teams that season).

For pass percentage, we use a similar formula, except the average is not zero. So the formula is: 100 + 15 * ( (PassPercentage – LeagueAveragePassPercentage)/(Standard Deviation for all teams that season) ).

Let’s re-look at the 2011 standings, but this time, I’m going to include their Pass Index and Game Script Index numbers (based on standard deviations above average), and sort the table by a column I’m calling Pass Identity.

Tm

Pass

Rush

P/R

SCRIPT

PASS Index

SCRIPT Index

Pass Identity

GNB

590

373

61.3%

7.4

111

132

43

NOR

682

424

61.7%

5.6

112

124

37

DET

702

350

66.7%

0.7

128

103

31

NWE

643

425

60.2%

4.3

108

118

26

ATL

614

432

58.7%

3.9

103

117

20

PIT

579

418

58.1%

4

101

117

19

TEN

606

364

62.5%

0.2

115

101

16

BAL

577

439

56.8%

4.1

97

118

15

PHI

582

437

57.1%

3.7

98

116

15

DAL

605

396

60.4%

1.1

109

105

14

SDG

610

416

59.5%

1.2

106

105

11

NYG

616

390

61.2%

-1

111

95

7

WAS

627

392

61.5%

-1.9

112

92

4

BUF

596

384

60.8%

-2.1

110

91

1

CAR

552

435

55.9%

1.4

95

106

0

SFO

496

477

51%

4.7

79

121

0

MIA

522

456

53.4%

2.6

87

111

-2

ARI

602

378

61.4%

-3.5

112

85

-3

CHI

519

449

53.6%

1.9

87

108

-4

NYJ

583

436

57.2%

-0.8

99

97

-5

HOU

494

533

48.1%

5.4

70

123

-7

SEA

555

438

55.9%

-0.4

94

98

-7

CIN

560

445

55.7%

-0.6

94

97

-9

CLE

607

405

60%

-3.9

107

83

-10

TAM

614

336

64.6%

-8.7

122

62

-16

MIN

559

442

55.8%

-2.8

94

88

-18

OAK

546

459

54.3%

-1.7

90

93

-18

STL

604

402

60%

-6.4

107

72

-21

IND

564

375

60.1%

-7.2

107

69

-24

KAN

532

476

52.8%

-4

85

83

-33

JAX

512

474

51.9%

-3.5

82

85

-33

DEN

469

537

46.6%

-3.7

65

84

-51

Looking at the top row, the Packers had 590 pass attempts and ran 373 times. They passed on 61.3% of their plays, and had a game script of 7.4. So this was a team that passed a lot even though it was frequently ahead in games, often by double digits. The Packers were nearly one standard deviation above average in pass percentage while being over two full standard deviations above average in terms of Game Script. That’s what the numbers in the next two columns represent. So how do we judge how pass-heavy an offense is? The Packers pass ratio was 11 units above average, despite a season-long game script that was 32 units above average. Because we’ve converted game scripts and pass percentage into the same units, we can simply add the two, to measure how pass-heavy an offense was. That makes their passing identity 43 units above average, meaning no team was more pass-heavy than the Packers last year. The Saints weren’t far behind, with the Lions and Patriots up next. That passes the smell test.

That’s the point of Game Scripts. We can measure offensive philosophy much more acutely by understanding the flow of the game. When teams are passing even when they’re leading, that’s a team that’s passing by design, not necessity.

In 2007, the Patriots ranked 14th in the league in pass to run ratio. But using the “Pass Identity” formula described above, New England had a score of 49, highest in the league and the fourth highest of all-time. The ’99 Rams ranked 18th out of 31 teams in pass percentage. But they had a Pass Identity grade of 36, highest in the league.

When I developed Game Scripts, the goal wasn’t to create a new stat to tell us something we didn’t know. Instead, my intention was to create a stat to help us empirically show what we already know. The goal isn’t to wow anyone by saying that the ’99 Rams and ’07 Pats passed a lot, but rather to adjust the stats to show how that was the case. By that measure, I consider Game Scripts a success.

What teams had the truest passing identity of all-time? The 1995 49ers were a great team. They had the highest Game Script in the league that season, at 7.7. They outscored their opponents by 199 points, over 50 points more than the team with the second-best points differential. Yet they called 677 passing plays, and finished with the sixth highest pass percentage in the league.1 This was also the year that Jerry Rice set the single-season receiving mark. With a game script of 138 and a pass ratio of 116, the 49ers had a Pass Identity of 53, just edging out two Run-n-Shoot Oilers teams for #1 on the list. There aren’t too many surprises at the top, as the ’07 Pats, ’79 Air Coryell Chargers,, the ’01 GSOT Rams, a couple more Run-N-Shoot Oilers teams, and last year’s Packers teams are next.

Year

Lg

Tm

Pass

Rush

P/R

SCRIPT

PASS Index

SCRIPT Index

Pass Identity

1995

NFL

SFO

677

415

62%

7.7

116

138

53

1991

NFL

HOU

691

331

67.6%

2.5

141

111

51

1990

NFL

HOU

678

328

67.4%

4.1

133

118

51

2007

NFL

NWE

586

451

58.4%

10.3

105

145

49

1979

NFL

SDG

572

481

54.3%

4.6

119

129

48

2001

NFL

STL

551

416

59.1%

8.9

109

138

48

1993

NFL

HOU

657

409

61.6%

4.5

125

121

46

1992

NFL

HOU

605

353

63.2%

3.3

130

115

45

2011

NFL

GNB

590

373

61.3%

7.4

111

132

43

1981

NFL

MIN

738

391

65.4%

-0.3

144

99

42

2004

NFL

PHI

547

376

62.1%

4.8

121

121

42

1974

NFL

PHI

503

415

54.8%

2.3

130

111

40

2002

NFL

OAK

619

414

62%

5.6

116

124

40

2010

NFL

NOR

661

380

65.1%

3.6

124

116

39

1983

NFL

KAN

687

387

64%

1.5

132

107

39

1950

NFL

RAM

476

404

54.1%

6.5

116

123

39

1960

NFL

BAL

418

345

54.8%

4.9

122

117

39

1995

NFL

DET

637

387

62.2%

4.5

116

122

38

2009

NFL

IND

601

366

63.7%

3.6

121

116

37

1978

NFL

MIN

622

505

55.2%

-0.5

140

97

37

2011

NFL

NOR

682

424

61.7%

5.6

112

124

37

2009

NFL

PHI

553

384

61.8%

4.9

115

121

37

1980

NFL

SDG

626

509

55.2%

4.8

113

124

36

1999

NFL

STL

563

431

56.6%

9.1

98

138

36

1994

NFL

GNB

642

417

60.6%

4.2

114

121

34

1998

NFL

MIN

558

450

55.4%

8.6

101

134

34

2003

NFL

STL

600

411

61.6%

3.3

120

114

34

1999

NFL

CAR

626

356

63.7%

2.4

124

110

34

2009

NFL

GNB

553

438

58.9%

6.3

107

127

34

1995

NFL

ATL

646

337

65.7%

1.2

128

106

34

1985

NFL

MIA

595

444

57.3%

4.4

112

122

34

2007

NFL

GNB

578

388

61.7%

4.3

115

119

33

1996

NFL

GNB

588

465

55.8%

6.5

101

133

33

2010

NFL

IND

679

393

64.8%

2.3

123

110

33

2008

NFL

PHI

606

427

60.2%

4.5

113

119

33

1994

NFL

MIN

704

419

62.7%

2.6

120

113

33

1986

NFL

MIA

662

349

65.5%

-0.3

134

99

33

1996

NFL

NWE

658

427

60.6%

2.9

118

114

32

1987

NFL

MIA

597

408

59.4%

1.8

124

108

32

1952

NFL

CLE

408

394

50.9%

4.9

116

115

32

1947

NFL

CHI

378

448

45.8%

5.6

110

122

32

1982

NFL

SDG

350

267

56.7%

4.6

111

120

31

1943

NFL

WAS

254

320

44.3%

6.1

117

114

31

2011

NFL

DET

702

350

66.7%

0.7

128

103

31

2009

NFL

NWE

592

466

57.5%

6.6

102

129

31

1995

NFL

GNB

626

410

60.4%

4.2

110

120

31

1988

NFL

MIN

567

501

53.1%

5.7

101

130

31

1982

NFL

CIN

337

269

55.6%

5.1

108

123

31

1981

NFL

CIN

585

493

54.3%

4.4

110

121

31

1961

NFL

PHI

456

373

55%

2.8

119

111

31

1986

NFL

MIN

563

461

55%

6

104

127

30

2009

NFL

ARI

594

365

63.9%

1.9

122

108

30

1967

NFL

BAL

482

443

52.1%

6.7

104

126

30

1953

NFL

PHI

472

410

53.5%

5

115

115

30

1963

NFL

NYG

461

453

50.4%

7

104

126

30

2000

NFL

CAR

566

363

64.1%

1.3

124

106

30

1946

NFL

CRD

266

371

41.8%

4.9

111

119

30

1951

NFL

CLE

317

415

43.3%

8.8

99

131

30

1994

NFL

ATL

666

330

66.9%

-0.4

132

98

30

1980

NFL

CLE

577

436

57%

2.4

118

112

30

2008

NFL

ARI

630

340

66.9%

-1.1

134

95

30

2000

NFL

STL

587

383

62.2%

2.6

118

112

30

We can also use game scripts to measure the most run-heavy teams. We often think of run-heavy teams like the ’90s Cowboys or ’60s Packers, but that’s because they were so frequently playing with leads. For bad teams with a low Pass Identity, it may be a better indicator that the quarterback was just really, really bad.

You shouldn’t be too surprised at this list then, either. The most run-heavy team after adjusting for situation was the Tim Tebow 2011 Broncos, followed by the ’72 Bears, with Bobby Douglass at quarterback. The ’72 Bears were a bad team, but they had the fewest pass attempts in the league along with the lowest pass percentage. You probably aren’t surprised to see a Cowboys team with Emmitt Smith high on the list, but I doubt it was one of the ones you were thinking of. Rather it was the ’01 team, in Smith’s penultimate season in Dallas. The Cowboys alternated between Quincy Carter, Anthony Wright, Ryan Leaf and Clint Stoerner at quarterback. Dallas wasn’t very good, and ended the year ranked 30th in points. But Dave Campo’s team ranked last in pass attempts and third in rushing attempts, despite an average Game Script of -3.5.

Year

Lg

Tm

Pass

Rush

P/R

SCRIPT

PASS Index

SCRIPT Index

Pass Identity

2011

NFL

DEN

469

537

46.6%

-3.7

65

84

-51

1972

NFL

CHI

205

536

30.7%

-4.6

70

85

-46

2000

NFL

CIN

454

495

50.6%

-6.1

82

74

-45

1954

NFL

WAS

257

427

41%

-8.1

78

77

-45

1982

NFL

NWE

187

324

38.4%

-1.6

63

93

-44

2001

NFL

DAL

413

505

47%

-3.5

71

85

-44

1983

NFL

BAL

377

601

41.4%

-3.1

73

85

-43

2007

NFL

OAK

451

508

49.4%

-4.3

76

81

-42

1982

NFL

BAL

283

293

50.8%

-8.3

96

63

-41

1978

NFL

KAN

370

663

37.1%

-2.7

73

86

-41

2005

NFL

SFO

389

428

50.8%

-5.6

85

76

-40

1951

NFL

WAS

226

547

30.4%

-4.5

77

84

-39

2008

NFL

OAK

421

459

50.1%

-4.8

81

79

-39

1952

NFL

CRD

289

477

40.7%

-4.1

74

87

-39

1979

NFL

NYJ

369

634

38.7%

-1.8

73

88

-39

2009

NFL

CLE

443

498

48.9%

-3.2

75

86

-39

1945

NFL

PIT

165

358

31.5%

-6.6

81

81

-38

1984

NFL

IND

411

510

47.9%

-6.5

86

76

-38

1981

NFL

NOR

441

546

46.9%

-4.9

87

77

-36

1959

NFL

WAS

284

422

43.3%

-8.1

93

71

-36

1981

NFL

BAL

479

441

53.9%

-9.3

109

56

-36

2010

NFL

CAR

484

428

55.5%

-6.7

94

71

-35

2006

NFL

ATL

416

537

46.6%

-1.6

72

93

-34

2009

NFL

TEN

476

499

50.1%

-3.1

79

87

-34

1978

NFL

CHI

352

634

37.8%

-1.9

76

90

-34

2011

NFL

JAX

512

474

51.9%

-3.5

82

85

-33

1965

NFL

PIT

354

407

50.5%

-6.2

104

64

-33

1971

NFL

NYJ

278

485

38.3%

-3.7

81

86

-33

1964

NFL

PIT

323

516

42%

-2.5

78

89

-33

1941

NFL

PIT

168

381

30.6%

-7.6

88

79

-33

1986

NFL

TAM

459

455

53.1%

-6.9

98

69

-33

2009

NFL

NYJ

393

607

41.5%

3.5

52

115

-33

2011

NFL

KAN

532

476

52.8%

-4

85

83

-33

2010

NFL

JAX

469

512

50.2%

-2.2

77

90

-33

2006

NFL

SFO

444

438

52.6%

-5.5

91

76

-32

1962

NFL

PIT

319

572

38.8%

-0.7

71

97

-32

1985

NFL

CLE

414

533

45.8%

-1.3

75

93

-32

1983

NFL

HOU

482

502

51.4%

-6.2

99

69

-32

1965

AFL

DEN

482

453

52.8%

-6.1

94

75

-32

1963

NFL

PIT

368

578

40.8%

-1.2

73

95

-32

1978

NFL

BAL

383

532

44.8%

-6.3

102

67

-31

1954

NFL

CRD

349

418

47.6%

-9.8

96

72

-31

1949

AAFC

NYY

199

510

28.1%

-1.4

73

96

-31

2001

NFL

WAS

432

490

49.2%

-2.1

78

91

-31

1985

NFL

ATL

462

560

48.7%

-2.9

84

85

-30

1964

AFL

DEN

456

391

56.9%

-8

101

68

-30

1957

NFL

PHI

204

424

35.4%

-3.2

86

84

-30

1999

NFL

TAM

447

502

49.3%

-0.4

72

98

-30

2006

NFL

TEN

447

469

50.4%

-3.2

84

86

-30

1971

NFL

GNB

254

500

35.2%

-0.8

73

97

-30

1981

NFL

CHI

489

608

46.3%

-3.1

85

85

-30

1997

NFL

PIT

466

572

45.9%

0.3

69

101

-30

1988

NFL

NWE

389

588

41.2%

0.3

69

102

-30

2009

NFL

OAK

485

410

56.9%

-6.8

100

70

-30

If we look at just teams with positive game scripts, we get a more familiar look at the most run-heavy teams. The team with the strongest rushing identity? Rex Ryan’s ground and pound 2009 New York Jets:

Year

Lg

Tm

Pass

Rush

P/R

SCRIPT

PASS Index

SCRIPT Index

Pass Identity

2009

NFL

NYJ

393

607

41.5%

3.5

52

115

-33

1997

NFL

PIT

466

572

45.9%

0.3

69

101

-30

1988

NFL

NWE

389

588

41.2%

0.3

69

102

-30

1973

NFL

BUF

213

605

28.7%

0.7

68

102

-29

2004

NFL

PIT

358

618

40.2%

4.4

52

119

-29

1974

NFL

BUF

251

545

34.3%

1.5

64

107

-29

1998

NFL

TAM

449

523

47.7%

0.1

71

100

-28

1997

NFL

TEN

420

541

45.5%

1.1

68

105

-27

1968

NFL

MIN

282

500

38.8%

1.2

69

104

-27

1994

NFL

NYG

405

525

46.2%

0.3

72

101

-27

1981

NFL

KAN

410

610

42.3%

0.2

73

101

-26

1993

NFL

CHI

388

477

47.8%

0.1

73

101

-26

2003

NFL

BAL

415

552

45.6%

1.1

70

105

-25

1986

NFL

RAM

403

578

42.7%

1.6

68

107

-25

1984

NFL

RAM

358

541

41.9%

1.6

70

106

-24

1949

NFL

PIT

209

535

29.3%

0.8

74

102

-24

2010

NFL

KAN

475

556

47.9%

1.6

70

107

-23

1961

NFL

PIT

334

543

40.5%

0.8

74

103

-22

1970

NFL

DAL

297

522

39.2%

1.2

73

105

-22

1996

NFL

BUF

483

563

48.5%

0.6

75

103

-22

1957

NFL

WAS

201

500

30.2%

0.7

74

104

-22

1995

NFL

IND

434

478

50.3%

0.5

76

102

-22

2004

NFL

ATL

395

524

46.7%

1.3

73

106

-22

1968

AFL

KAN

270

537

35.4%

6.4

60

119

-21

1994

NFL

IND

376

495

44.9%

2.1

68

110

-21

1984

NFL

CHI

390

674

38.7%

4.7

62

117

-21

2000

NFL

PIT

439

527

48.2%

1.1

74

105

-21

1960

NFL

STL

285

484

38.8%

0.7

77

103

-21

2008

NFL

BAL

433

592

44.9%

3.3

65

114

-20

1967

AFL

HOU

332

476

42.5%

2.7

71

109

-20

1975

NFL

MIA

279

594

33.7%

4.2

66

114

-20

1980

NFL

CHI

404

579

43%

0.4

78

102

-20

2009

NFL

CAR

465

525

49.1%

1.1

76

105

-20

Note that for years since 2000, I removed spikes and kneels, but for years prior to 2000, I used the more familiar data available at PFR. [↩]

I’m surprised the 1984 Dolphins don’t make the list of top pass identities ever. What is their pass identity? (I just looked up their PFR page, and was surprised to see that they rushed for almost 2,000 yards as a team. That surprised me, since their RB’s weren’t all that good.)

Chase Stuart

Good question. I’ll check tonight.

Chase Stuart

The Dolphins just missed the cutoff here — they had a Pass Identity of 28. That’s based on a Pass Index of 105 and a Game Script Index of 123.

For reference, they were 2nd in Game Script (6.3), behind SF (8.4), but Miami was only 11th in pass/run ratio.

But there are two odd things at play here. One is Marino’s absurd sack rate. He was sacked just 13 times. When PFR lists the team’s rank in pass attempts, they’re literally using the term. When I do P/R ratios, I’m including sacks. If we did not include sacks, Miami would rank 8th, and not 11th, in pass/run ratio. So that closes the gap.

Also, if you ignore sacks, Miami ranked 5th in total plays. When Miami ranked 8th in sack-excluded P/R ratio, the five teams that had more pass attempts than them all had a higher P/R ratio; also, Minnesota and Detroit each had 977 attempts + runs (compared to Miami’s 1056), so they jump Miami.

Miami did have the highest Pass Index in the league, with Philly (23), SF (21) and KC (21) coming in behind them.

Shattenjager

I am shocked and horrified! You went an entire post without any pictures with amusing captions??!!

An interesting observation: Marc Trestman coordinated two of the top 12 pass identity teams, but they were different teams seven years apart (1995 SF and 2002 OAK). It would be interesting to use this data for analysis of coaches/coordinators over time, particularly when they change teams or their teams change around them. Over the long term, most of them will obviously even out and just look average, but it would be interesting to see those who don’t.

Mikey

Hmm, I’m surprised to see that the pass-wacky Buffalo Bills, under Chan Gailey, come out so low. I suppose the answer is just that they were, in fact, that bad.

It actually makes me wonder if Game Script overrated blowouts – I wonder how the numbers would look with a cap of, say, 30 points, to keep down some inflation.

Was wondering if you had to “smooth out the data_ to get a normal distirbution, or that the calculation for standard deviation did not take into account this statistical step. (Sory, Chase, I don’t do this math so much since grad school). I am figuring that with the standard deviation being 15 and the +1.0 and -1.0 SD is 115 and 85 respectively, that the mean is 100 and that the overall data pool is somewhat evenly distributed (like IQ scores). Also, noticed that only two teams from the 1970’s had high pass identity scores– and both were late 70’s after the initial pass friendly rule changes.

Chase Stuart

There is no smoothing of the data.

The standard deviation is not 15; it’s the opposite. I’m making 1 standard deviation equal to 15 points. I could say that the Patriots were 2.2 standard deviations above average, but I think converting that to 133 makes more sense as a number people can understand.