Overview

Expectations of an economic slowdown at the start of 2001 proved to be well founded, and as the year drew to a close, fears of a global recession were being expressed. In the year 2000 the global economy had grown by 4.7%, its fastest rate in a decade and a half. In November the International Monetary Fund (IMF) revised down its projection for 2001 to 2.4%, but by year’s end this looked too optimistic. Growth in the 30 industrialized countries of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), which accounted for most world output, was not expected to exceed 1%, which in turn constrained growth of the less-developed countries (LDCs). (For Real Gross Domestic Products of Selected OECD Countries, seeTable; for Changes in Output in Less-Developed Countries, seeTable.)

Country

1997

1998

1999

2000

20011

United States

4.4

4.3

4.1

4.1

1.3

Japan

1.9

-1.1

0.8

1.5

-0.5

Germany

1.4

2.0

1.8

3.0

0.8

France

1.9

3.5

3.0

3.4

2.0

Italy

2.0

1.8

1.6

2.9

1.8

United Kingdom

3.5

2.6

2.3

3.1

2.0

Canada

4.3

3.9

5.1

4.4

2.0

All developed countries

3.5

2.7

3.4

3.8

1.3

Seven major countries above

3.2

2.8

3.0

3.4

1.1

European Union

2.6

2.9

2.7

3.4

1.8

Area

1997

1998

1999

2000

20011

All less-developed countries

5.8

3.5

3.9

5.8

4.3

Regional groups

Africa

3.1

3.3

2.5

2.8

3.8

Asia

6.5

4.0

6.1

6.8

5.8

Middle East, Europe, Malta, & Turkey

5.1

4.1

1.0

6.0

2.3

Western Hemisphere

5.3

2.3

0.2

4.2

1.7

Countries in transition

1.6

-0.8

3.6

6.3

4.0

The slowdown in the first half of 2001 was more severe than had been expected. The world’s stock markets were already falling, and interest rates were being steadily lowered in the U.S. and the European Union (EU) to stimulate economic activity. (For short-term interest rates, seeGraph; for long-term interest rates, seeGraph.) While several factors had contributed to the global slowdown, regions and countries were differently affected. A key factor was a stronger-than-predicted fall in demand for information technology (IT) products. This particularly affected the producer countries in Asia, which were heavily dependent on technology exports. In Western Europe and other industrialized areas, growth slowed more than expected—partly because of the effects of tighter monetary policies and the need to adapt to higher oil prices—and corporate profits were falling. The Japanese economy was still bordering on recession, but its imports continued to rise strongly. China’s economy remained buoyant, with strong domestic demand and a stable currency in terms of the U.S. dollar. In the first half of the year, China’s trade was slowing, but it was still recording double-digit growth in imports and a 9% increase in exports.

While the slowdown had been more severe than expected, it was the unprecedented terrorist attacks in the U.S. that really shook world confidence. While the initial impact was felt in the U.S., where there was a huge loss of life and the physical destruction of much of the business infrastructure of lower Manhattan, the attacks created fear and uncertainty across the world. The economic might of the U.S., which had been a driving force behind much of the world’s economic growth, was seriously undermined. The insurance cost of the damage was likely to reach $50 billion, according to early estimates by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. This was well in excess of the $19 billion in damage caused when Hurricane Andrew hit Louisiana and Florida in 1992, previously the largest claim to date.

The loss of confidence was quickly reflected in the world’s leading financial markets, and acceleration in corporate failures and job losses; major European firms laid off 97,000 workers in October alone, almost twice as many as in September. (For Standardized Unemployment Rates in Selected Developed Countries, seeTable.) At the end of November, one of the world’s largest conglomerates, the energy trader Enron Corp., filed for Chapter 11 protection in what would be the world’s biggest-ever bankruptcy. Possibly the most lasting impact was on transport and world travel and tourism. Within weeks once-strong national airlines Swissair and Belgium’s Sabena were being declared bankrupt as a result of the slump in demand for air travel. The number of international tourist arrivals in 2000 reached 699 million and generated $476 billion. Before the terrorist attacks international tourism in 2001 was on track for a 3–4% increase; in November the World Tourism Organization lowered its forecast to 1%.

Country

1997

1998

1999

2000

20011

United States

4.9

4.5

4.2

4.0

4.8

Japan

3.4

4.1

4.7

4.7

5.0

Germany

9.5

9.3

8.6

7.9

8.1

France

12.2

11.8

11.2

9.5

8.9

Italy

11.8

11.8

11.4

10.5

10.0

United Kingdom

6.5

6.3

6.1

5.5

5.1

Canada

9.1

8.3

7.6

6.8

7.3

All developed countries

6.8

7.1

6.8

6.4

6.5

Seven major countries above

6.4

6.4

6.1

5.7

--

European Union

11.4

9.9

9.1

8.2

8.5

On a more positive note, despite the critics of trade liberalization, the World Trade Organization (WTO) meeting in Doha, Qatar, on November 11–14 went ahead as planned, and a new agreement was reached. Most countries were continuing to make efforts to participate in globalization by attracting foreign investment. Of the 150 regulatory changes in investment conditions made by 69 countries in 2000, 147 were more favourable. As a result, foreign direct investment (FDI) continued to be a major influence on economic development, increasing at a much faster rate than world trade or production.(For Industrial Production of selected countries, seeGraph.) In 2000 world FDI reached a record $4,270,000,000,000, 18% up on the previous year and well in excess of forecasts. Sales of the over 800,000 affiliates of transnational corporations also rose by 18% to reach $15,680,000,000,000, while the number of employees, which had doubled over the previous decade, reached 45,600,000. In 2001, however, the slackening in merger and acquisition (M&A) activity was expected to result in a decline in overall FDI.

Once again a strong surge in cross-border M&A to $1,140,000,000,000 provided the impetus for most FDI, an increase of 49.3% over the year before. In the first half of 2001, M&A activity declined by 17% to $300 billion, one-quarter of the same-year-earlier level, and no increase was expected in the second half of the year.

Most FDI activity continued to be in the developed countries. The U.S., Japan, and the EU countries (collectively known as the Triad) in 1998–2000 received three-quarters of global FDI and accounted for 85% of outflows. The U.S. remained the largest host country for FDI, receiving $281 billion in 2000, largely the result of several large acquisitions made by American firms. Since 1999 the U.K. had overtaken the U.S. as the largest outward investor, and in 2000 France joined it. The $139 billion U.S. flow of outward investment was largely the result of M&As in the EU, which was the destination of nearly half its total FDI. The slowdown in the Japanese economy, especially in the manufacturing sectors, deterred some investors. FDI in 2000 was down 36% to $8.2 billion from a record high in 1999. Japanese outward investment at $33 billion rose strongly to its highest level in a decade, being led by M&A activity in telecommunications.

FDI into and out of Canada reached record levels in 2000, totaling $100 billion, mostly because of cross-border M&As with partners in Europe and the U.S. Australia and New Zealand FDI was closely linked to Asia-Pacific developments and was also constrained by unfavourable exchange rates.

The share of FDI to the LDCs declined to 19% in 2000, the lowest since 1990, but the picture was mixed. Although FDI into Africa fell by around 10% to $9.1 billion, much of the reduction was in sub-Saharan Africa because of an easing in Angola’s petroleum industry and the reduction in M&A transactions in South Africa. South Africa contributed 40% of the region’s FDI outflows. Since the ending of apartheid, many of the larger companies, such as South African Breweries, were becoming more international and acquiring businesses abroad in order to secure new markets and increase their competitiveness.

Against the overall trend, FDI into the LDCs of Asia rose 44% to a record $143 billion in 2000. This was due to an investment boom in Hong Kong associated with China’s forthcoming membership in the WTO. At $643 billion in 2000, Hong Kong’s share of the total inflow into Asia rose to 45% and overtook that of China. Nevertheless, China was making policy changes in advance of joining the WTO, and it received 12% more FDI in the first four months of 2001 than in the same 2000 period. Southeast Asia’s share fell to 10% in 2000, mainly because of divestments in Indonesia. In South Asia, India continued to be the largest recipient, with $2.3 billion.

Outward investment from Asia doubled to a record $85 billion, led by Hong Kong but with increasing flows from China and India. Investment in Latin America and the Caribbean declined from the particularly high level of 1999. (For Changes in Consumer Prices in Less-Developed Countries, seeTable.)

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