Scouting the 2013 Draft: Defensive ends

Doc BearApr 24, 2013 1:30 PM

After watching film until I had become one with the monitor and clicker, I finally threw in the towel as far as writing full pieces on the draft. As is ever the case, there were a few people I couldn’t get to and several stories that asked to be told, but I lost the race with time and health. Here are some of the players that I still thought were worth writing about:

Living out here in California, I watched a lot of Datone Jones’s work for UCLA. He's a very impressive player, and his physical skills are not in question. He’s got a decent explosion, he’s got good size and strength, and his technique is coming along well. I like him. Some mocks have linked him to Denver, and with good reason, especially following the Dumervil departure debacle.

I also have to acknowledge that Jones drives even his supporters crazy with his tendency to lose concentration at times; he can be dominating, but suddenly put in a lackluster effort. In the NFL - and especially if he’s playing under Jack Del Rio - that's unforgivable.

On the other hand, when his head is in the right place, he's an extremely productive player who brings to the table speed off the edge, a good level of technique for a college player, and the physical gifts to be a starting right defensive end. He is also a vocal leader both on the field and in the locker room.

That's what makes his sudden lapses particularly perplexing - and irritating. Despite that flaw, he’s got the size, strength (his 29 reps on the bench at combine matched what he shows on film) and the speed to be a very good DE. His technique is, as it is with most of them, a work in progress, but there’s a lot to like in his hand use and his cornering - he can drop his hips, and dip and rip with the best of them. He can get to the QB and he can set an edge, as well as being effective in pursuit. I found it interesting that a lot of people have compared him to Robert Ayers - he has tons of potential, but it didn’t come out until his senior season, and even then, he did have some ‘off’ series.

Although Jones has shown himself to be sometimes erratic, I don’t take that too far. He’s also an unusually gifted player - which is one reason that when he isn’t focused, it shows. If he were 15 lb heavier, he’d be ranked highly as a 3-technique pass-rushing DT. As it is, he could roll to the DT in college - he isn’t big enough for that in the NFL at this point, but it could easily happen. He uses his hands well, extends his arms when he can’t get inside the OL’s hand position, has quick feet, and knows how to turn slightly to ‘get skinny’ and cut through (or ‘press’) a gap in the LOS.

His upside is purely predicated on his adherence to his craft: he’s got all the natural gifts and ability he could need. It’s going to up to him to prove that he’s got the head and the heart. If he passes the interviews, he’s an interesting option.

Oddly enough, I've had an uncomfortable feeling when watching this player for a long time. With the glow still lingering from Von Miller's time at the same school and Damontre taking over Miller’s joker role, I really wanted to like Moore. I saw him do some very good things, but I was surprised at how often he was stymied.

When he put up only 12 repetitions of the 225 pound bar at the combine, I had part of my answer. He got that up to 19 at his Pro Day, but he tweaked a hamstring in agility drills and couldn’t improve on his lackluster 4.94-second forty-yard dash combine time or finish his workout, and it didn’t help his cause. His tape will still see him drafted highly - I just don’t know that it will be Round 1. He’s slender, but so is Greg Hardy, and that hasn’t stopped him. He could be best as an odd-front LB whose role includes a lot of pass rushing.

I don't think that the bench press is big by itself, and alone, the speed issue doesn’t bother me much. However, his trouble with them fits into what did bug me when watching several games during the season. I saw him having trouble getting the right leverage to move past or through players that he should have been able to handle with ease. There was a lot that he could get away with in college that won’t fly in the pros, where every player is very good.

I'm not saying that he's not a good player - he is. I’d be cautious with him in terms of the role Denver wants to fill, though. He’s not an easy fit in Denver’s scheme. He’s light in weight as well as low in strength for a DE, and Denver’s been moving to a bigger, stronger, versatile line. When you add the scheme point into his speed and strength issues, I’d put him at ‘buyer beware’.

He’d be coming in as a pass-rush specialist and a special teamer - good areas for the team to improve, but also a limited role. That’s common among lower round players drafted into the NFL, but not high-round ones. My issue is whether his weaknesses could be too much for him to be effective in the pro game, especially in a starting role. Working as more of a linebacker in an odd-front defense and having more powerful players in front of him chould help his efforts.

During the Combine, Mike Mayock made the comment that Eric Herman, a guard out of the University of Ohio, may be the single toughest man in the 2013 Draft. I managed to find some of his film, and I watched him as much as he was shown at the combine, and from the little I could find on him, I'd tentatively agree with Mayock. You may not hear his name called until Saturday, but outstanding athletic talent isn't everything. Last season, a lot of folks called Derek Wolfe ‘just’ an effort guy. This kid has that same kind of attitude, and the size to back it up.

Herman comes from a small school. As such, he doesn't get the attention a Division I player would. If that hypothetical player played the way Herman does, they'd get noticed right away. He has good size for an NFL guard. He still struggles to keep his pad level low enough (a very common issue for players coming out of college) but he's got a mean streak, loves to pancake defenders, finishes to the whistle, is very, very strong, and is coming along fine with his technique.

I think that he’s a fine example of why so many NFL offensive linemen are taken late or come out as college free agents, yet go on to very successful careers. I expect that he will do the same. Denver may be fine in their OL interior, but he’s going to make some team better. I thought that he deserves some press.

Werner is a very interesting guy. I read that Mel Kiper has predicted that he'll drop to the second round, and I hope that's true - mostly because I think the Broncos are probably going to trade down a little bit (if they can find a trade partner), and I'd love to see them pick this young man up. There are several good early choices for Denver - he is certainly one of them.

He grew up in Germany and he's late in coming to football. If you leave that aside for a moment, you see a highly athletic player who has speed, quickness, plenty of power, and who can put on even more size if desired. He was ranked is a first-team All-American by eight organizations, and added a second-team All-American ranking with two more. When you put on the film, it's easy to see why. Unlike Margus Hunt, he’s been in the game long enough to really have developed his technique. When you add that to his natural skills, you’ve got a very solid player. He’s the kind of ‘won’t disappoint’ choice that a team needs with a late first- or early second-round pick.

He's learned quickly so far, and he's just going to get better. It's interesting - there was a time when the NFL ‘discovered’ the traditionally black colleges, and the draft changed because of it. The same happened with small schools to a different extent. Football is truly becoming international at this point, and several of the top players in the draft including Werner, Margus Hunt, Jesse Williams, Menelik Watson, and Ezekiel ‘Ziggy’ Ansah all grew up in other countries. I imagine that in the NFL, like the NBA, this will become increasingly common, and it’s a nice trend to see. I hope more young men around the globe are drawn to the sport.

There are literally dozens more players that impressed me who are in this draft. Every year is different, but this crop is unusual in the quality of players who will go in the middle, upper middle, and even late rounds. I’ve seen several who I’d expect to have impressive careers. For a team like Denver, which has the potential to win out and who has a few needs that are certain to be addressed in the draft, that’s a comforting circumstance.

I’ve no doubt that John Elway has his draft team ready and his approaches, given the many variables for a late first round start, worked out. This will be the first year without Brian Xanders, so I’ll be interested in how and whether they move around - with Xanders gone, will they still maintain their ability to move around? It’s going to be fun to find out.

Learn to laugh at yourself. You will be ceaselessly amused. - Sri Gary Olsen

You can reach Doc at .(JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address) or follow him on Twitter @alloverfatman

Cowboys again leak draft board; here's what they thought of the players Denver selected in April

Well, based on that AND Bear, MD's write up. You've got me fired up for the draft!

Posted by Nick (ncm42) on 2013-04-25 14:05:06

Great stuff, Colinski. I think this choice gives us a chance to upgrade from Elvis' play against the run.

Still wish he hadn't left, though....

Posted by Nick (ncm42) on 2013-04-25 14:00:24

Based on that alone, I'd be happy to see him in Orange and blue!

Posted by Nick (ncm42) on 2013-04-25 13:58:03

colinski, really dig your thinking here brother. I actually believe the fo thinks this way too, one of the reasons you didn't see much more than a little frustration at the doom fiaxco.

Posted by pubkeeper on 2013-04-25 09:24:43

The next couple days are going to be very exciting for you, Eric. Enjoy the experience and good luck with whatever team drafts you.

Posted by Yahmule on 2013-04-25 09:19:32

Strangely, Werner seems to be dropping because people say his game is sound in all phases, but he doesn't excel in any particular area. I would love to see him @ 28, but I think he'll come off the board much sooner.

Posted by Yahmule on 2013-04-25 09:17:50

A comment on player movement: I seem to have a fairly accurate sense of what drives the player 'movement." I've yet to hear anything about Werner that would put him in the faller category, which I reserve for players who have damaging flaws which are revealed in the draft evaluation process. As you've surmised, there are players whose stock appears to fall for no reason other than the insertion of other players, such as declaring juniors whose true positions aren't accurately assessed till later in the process and who then 'leapfrog' propects who are highly placed earlier in the evaluaton period.

Seguing to another point though -- our fixation with finding a Dumervil clone blinds us to sound team building. Moore may be bargain because of faller status but the question is: is he really the player who will best help the team? IMO, we're subconsciously attempting to undo Dumervil's loss by selecting a poor imitiation. On the other hand, a player such as Werner offers something somewhat 'un-Dumervil-like, but that's part of his problem.

I think our emphasis for the DE position should be on someone who shows the potential to be a 3 down player. If we're looking for a situatonal pass rusher type then we should address that need through the FA market. I'm in favor of (for example) signing Shaun Phillips instead of forcing our pick, which is what it feels like lately. In addition to what I've already said about our suspect decision making process, we may be falling back into the trap of creating unrealistic expectations for any DE we draft. There's a rigidity to the draft an Elvis replacement thinking, and rarely does this indicate good decision making. As I said before, it's an idee fixe.

Posted by colinski2 on 2013-04-25 06:29:43

Great options. Thanks for adding them.

Posted by Doc Bear on 2013-04-25 05:32:56

Good points all, colinski. btw, Moore has been falling on bad interviews, according to Mayock and Casserly (I like Casserly. Eisen did perhaps the best Charlie imitation during Combine. If you missed it, that's a shame - it was dead on).

Werner is dropping on nothing in particular - other players moving up, mostly. Some still have him gone by 15. Some have him in round 2. No one really knows. I think that he fits the DE approach that Denver is moving to as well as anyone but Jones. I don't see DE as an immediate need, just an area of weak depth - but the FO might go another way.

Posted by Doc Bear on 2013-04-25 02:24:31

We got a reply on the article -

Eric Herman@Hermans_House@alloverfatman thank you very much for the write up.

You're welcome, Eric. You deserve it.

Posted by Doc Bear on 2013-04-25 00:37:14

Great stuff Doc. We'd already chatted a bit about Jones, we've both watched him in college and I'd be stoked to have Broncos take him. Werner interesting too, especially if they can get him in 2nd (after a trade up). 28 might be a little too high. Tank Carradine still interests me, obviously, too, though now I'm not sure Broncos would have shot at him anyway...

I'm just glad the draft is finally almost here--no more waiting. It's on! ;)

Posted by underdog on 2013-04-25 00:24:30

I, too, am reluctant regarding Moore. And rather than attempt to justify why I feel this way -- especially since it's primarily an intuition -- I'll cite CBS's latest, and probably last, re-evaluation.

The 4/23 CBS prospect ranking drops Damontre Moore all the way down to #52, which is significant drop from his recent spot near where the Broncos pick. And that spot in the 20s was far lower than his lofty pre-Combine position, so he's been falling like a rock for some time now.

Interestingly, Werner has been falling lately, although his drop doesn't appear to be related to any negative event. After starting out as one the top ten picks a couple months ago, Werner has moved all the way down to #20. He's even popped up as Denver's selection in several recent mocks.

Evaluating prospects is not my bailiwick so I leave to others to others to argue over each prospect's merits, but it does seem obvious that most Bronco fans have framed our decisional desideratum as replacing Dumervil's traits. And that may not be possible. Moreover, it may not be wise. Despite the importance of replacing Dumervil's now departed sacks, it's a mistake to fixate on replacing his pass rushing ability to the extent that it blinds us from making the best choice.

Doc,I don't disagree that to attempt to guess what the Broncos will do is probably pointless. However, that much has been made about attempting to do just that, pretty much across the board, IMO makes my caveat at least cautionary.

My point, actually, though perhaps made somewhat clumsily, is that this draft may defy predictions.IMO, Doc, we seem to agree on several things.1 - trench play (OL and DL) is more important that the average fan gives it regard;2 - this year, it's more difficult than before to predict what might happen in the draft. for several reasons;3 - Wolfe is a kind of icon for the kind of flexible DL player that the Broncos would like to accumulate. That icon provides, in various degrees: run support; two gap responsibilities when needed; pocket collapse; pass rush, double team attention for OL; 4 - With the increasing use of "no huddle" and "hurry up", specialists on defense are of decreasing importance, resulting in a revision of many concepts,5 - On defense, three down players are of increasingly value.

Mostly, I find myself attracted to discussion of the changes and developments of play - schemes, personel, development, etc. that seem to be of importance in the NFl and to discuss them.And, to the current point, I'm beginning to question the value of the "pass rush" specialist.

Posted by ivanthenotsobad on 2013-04-24 20:33:09

Speaking of a "new Doom", there are a couple vertically challenged prospects who could come in as day three pass rushers.

The first one is 6'1", 255 pound John Simon from Ohio State. He played all over their front seven and was extremely productive. Projected as a day three pick.

I'm also intrigued by 6'3", 260 pound Tourek Williams from Florida International. He's probably more of a free agent type.

Posted by Yahmule on 2013-04-24 20:15:47

"I'm not saying that he's not a good player - he is." Remember that part?

Kris, I watched a half dozen Texas A+M games - I liked several of their players this year and in SD you get them a lot. Different folks will see different things. I stand by what I saw when I watched him.

He's a talented young man who has left open some questions as to his projected leap to the NFL with poor Combine and Pro Days on strength and speed. That matched with some of the concerns regarding plays I had notes on. I also don't see him as the best fit in Denver's situation. I see him as a potential boom-bust player.

I appreciate your perspective, though. Thanks for bringing up the other side of the coin. If he makes the leap, more power to him.

Posted by Doc Bear on 2013-04-24 19:50:11

Ivan, I don't even try to guess who Denver might be looking for and I don't know that they will consider the loss of Doom a major issue. Ayers is a nice first choice. They might or might not like to back the position up, though. Jack Del Rio was asked where Derek Wolfe might play once they were comfortable with his development and he replied, "Anywhere he wants". Wolfe may eventually be the 3 tech pass rusher with run stopping skills that nearly every team would love to have, and that might leave an opening at DE. I can see various ways to perceive the forward movement of Doom, this being just one among them. I don't pretend to have an insight into the inner thoughts of the FO - I just try to consider various sensible scenarios.

Being a Broncos fan I tend to look at players on film both in terms of their skillset and in terms of how (or whether) they could fit into Denver's scheme. I generally concentrate on the lines purely because it's where my greatest interest lies. And yeah, Herman earned the plug. We'll hear his name again.

Posted by Doc Bear on 2013-04-24 19:26:12

Doc,You seem to be able to analyze players and fits as well as anyone.This is slightly askew of the general trend, but I'd like your reaction if you're willling and interested.The loss of Doom seems to hit us (the fans) harder than the FO.They have reached out to Freeney and Abrahams, apparently, but do not seem "hell bent" on signing one of them "as soon as possible" to make a point about the cap, or to improve their maneuverability in the draft..In addition, they talk about Ayers with confidence. However, they do not have a back-up "Doom" on the roster, as far as I can tell. But they do have Malik Jackson and Jeremey Beal, etc..

I guess my question is: are we so "hung up" on "Doom" that we are missing something?It appears that what the FO wants from the front four is "bigger" and "pocket collapse" potential with drop dead "run support". IMO a front four of Wolfe, Vickerson, Knighton, and Ayers would stop the run while also giving the QB no place to hide. In addition, IMO currently the DL rotation players are Jackson, Beal,, Unrein, and maybe Garland. That would make JDR blitz packages feature Von, "and company" (all of the other LB and DBs).with noticeably less restrictive paths to the QB - in slang "cherry pickers").

While I like all four of your featured DEs (maybe Herman best of all), I wonder if that is the type of player that the Broncos are seeking?Are we really looking for another "Doom", even a new improved version?

I'm almost of the opinion that another penetrating DT (Either Williams [Jess - my preference or Sylvester], Hankins, Jenkins, et alle) is a better scheme fit.

Am I missing something?

Posted by ivanthenotsobad on 2013-04-24 19:06:17

Good article, Doc. From what you are saying here - it looks to me that Werner would fit in the best of the 3 DEs with a more constant motor. You are right about JDR - he will not tolerate someone taking off on plays. At 266 with room to grow - Werner could be in the 280-290 range after a couple of years - with speed and athleticism. I could go for that combination.That OG might end up being a sleeper in this draft. Hope he stays out of the AFC west unless he is in Denver.

Posted by BlackKnigh on 2013-04-24 19:06:16

Doc if you don't mind I'd like to look at the tape you have seen that turned you off of Moore. I've just seen games (not highlights for the most part) on youtube and he's an absolute wrecking machine.

Posted by Kriss Bergethon on 2013-04-24 18:25:22

He's a lot better than that, TO: I just don't think he fits into Denver. He plays better than he works out and his ability to drop his weight and rip is still impressive. When I'm working against Elway's '10 year player' (a standard that I agree with), though, Moore doesn't seem a solid fit.

Posted by Doc Bear on 2013-04-24 15:40:39

I wonder if that means he screwed up the "do you like girls" question...

Sorry, couldn't resist.

Posted by The_Outlaw1984 on 2013-04-24 15:33:16

They say his interviews were as bad as his workouts.

Posted by Yahmule on 2013-04-24 15:16:53

Yeesh. Moore seems like a UDFA candidate with this writeup. I certainly hope the Broncos are smart enough to avoid him with their first few picks.

Posted by The_Outlaw1984 on 2013-04-24 14:45:58

If we could come away from round one (or early round two) with Bjoern Werner or Datone Jones, I would be really happy.