“Our checks indicate that as sell-through run-rates for the Z10 have declined meaningfully in the weeks following launch, we believe carriers and third-party retailers in the U.K. are already well above typically targeted inventory levels,” the analyst wrote in a note picked up by Forbes. “Canadian carrier stores and retailers also appear to be rapidly approaching targeted levels, in our view.”

“We continue to believe that the company likely shipped roughly 275,000 to 325,000 Z10s in the February quarter for the U.K. and Canadian markets,” Faucette wrote. “Further, we estimate that the company is likely to ship one to two million units in the May quarter, with sell-through likely well below that figure. As such, we believe optimism around BBRY is overdone at current levels and would remain sellers.”