Brexit split: Conservatives on the brink of imploding

By Edward Malnick

Updated 13 Jan 2019 — 12:41 PM, first published at 12:04 PM

London – The Tories are on the brink of a historic split, senior Conservatives warned late on Saturday, as Brexiteers and Remainers both threatened to torpedo the government if they don't get their way.

Pro-EU MPs claimed that a third of the cabinet would resign if Theresa May pursues a no-deal Brexit in the face of almost certain defeat over her deal, as they threatened a walkout of backbenchers that would obliterate the government's Commons majority.

At the same time, The Sunday Telegraph understands that several senior ministers are agitating Mrs May to immediately open talks with Labour MPs about a compromise involving a permanent customs union if her deal falls by a significant margin on Tuesday.

Legislators are due to vote on Theesa may's Brexit agreement on Tuesday, and all signs suggest they will reject it, adding uncertainty to Brexit less than three months before Britain is due to leave the EU on March 29. FRANK AUGSTEIN

One senior Tory said: "A growing number of the cabinet now think the only feasible option is to tack towards a softer Brexit involving a permanent customs union, in order to get a deal through with Labour votes. Amber [Rudd], David [Gauke], Greg Clark and Michael Gove have also made noises along those lines."

Steve Baker, the deputy chairman of the European Research Group of Eurosceptics, warned that the move would risk a split akin to the schism prompted by Robert Peel's repeal of the corn laws. "It's difficult to see how at least some Conservative MPs would not withdraw confidence in the government," he said.

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Sir Bernard Jenkin, another senior pro-Leave MP, said if Mrs May departed from the March 29 exit date or struck a deal with Labour for a softer Brexit, "I don't know what happens to the Conservative Party."

The warnings underscore the potential magnitude of Tuesday's vote, amid growing calls for a second referendum or extension of Britain's EU membership beyond March. One Tory MP said: "We're heading towards a brick wall at 100mph and are going to be smashed to smithereens."

Yesterday, talking up the prospect of a vote of no confidence if the deal is blocked, John McDonnell, the shadow chancellor, said: "It's now here before us, we could have a socialist prime minister."

Some 48 hours away from the vote:

Backbenchers led by Alex Chalk, a government aide and former barrister, were frantically gathering support for an amendment making approval of the deal conditional on the EU adding a legally binding document to the Withdrawal Agreement that allows the backstop arrangement to finish at the end of 2021 or 2022. They hope the "lifeline" could reduce the scale of defeat on Tuesday and help extract an 11th-hour concession from the EU.

Theresa May's Conservative government faces a historic split if she fails to win approval for her controversial Brexit agreement. LUKE MACGREGOR

▪ The former ministers behind an attempt last week to curb the government's powers in the event of no deal were said to have devised a new "mechanism" that they were confident would allow the Commons to categorically remove the option of walking away.

▪ Dominic Raab, the former Brexit secretary, writes in The Sunday Telegraph that MPs must "send a clear message to Brussels that the UK will not be bullied" – by voting down the deal.

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▪ On Tuesday morning, Mr Raab will unite with David Davis and Arlene Foster, the leader of the DUP, at a panel event to talk up their alternatives to Mrs May's plan.

▪ Lord Glasman, the former adviser to Ed Miliband, described a no-deal exit from the EU as the "real deal", using an article in the Morning Star to urge Jeremy Corbyn to back Brexit despite becoming the "tribune of the hopes of Remain".

Sources inside and outside of government said several cabinet ministers would lead a push as early as this week for a softer Brexit that could draw the support of Labour MPs, if Mrs May's deal is defeated by a significant margin.

A government source said: "If we have a significant defeat people like David and Amber will argue that because of the scale of the defeat no amount of additional assurance from the Commission will get it over the line and, therefore, we should reach across the House and have a permanent customs union. But we would also need regulatory alignment to resolve the border problem. The Commission would be likely to say it will only offer those things at a price of freedom of movement. So gradually we would be heading back towards something resembling EU membership."

Separately, one senior pro-Remain figure said: "The only point at which I would resign the whip is that if it became, after the vote, the Prime Minister's stated policy objective to deliver no deal. Then I'm afraid the government would fall. She would lose a third of her cabinet and very, very many colleagues have already said to me that they would resign the whip."