This week the watch world and its aficionados will gather at Baselworld for the industry’s second big trade fair of the year (following on from Geneva’s SIHH in January). So now would be a good time to ask, should you buy a new watch? After all, the furore surrounding the sale of Paul Newman’s Rolex Daytona – for a world-record $17.8 million might suggest our money is better spent tracking down a second-hand timepiece, ideally one previously belonging to a legendary Hollywood actor turned committed philanthropist (proceeds from the sale went to the Nell Newman Foundation, focusing on environmental issues).

It’s easy to imagine, then, why a buyer in search of a solid investment piece might be tempted away from the stands of Basel, where hundreds of brands will be displaying their wares this week, to investigate the rare and vintage market instead.

But at the same time, it’s clear several brands will be charging their glasses at the thought that all that interest in Sixties and Seventies chronographs could lead to a “bounce” in the sales of period-looking, contemporary watches. Certainly, Baselworld is likely be awash with suitable-looking examples.

In a bid to get to the bottom of this contrail of collector impulses (old/classic/rare vs new/contemporary/available) I asked Aurel Bacs, senior consulant of Bacs & Russo and the auctioneer responsible for achieving that high-sky Newman sale – as well as a no less earth-shattering hammer price for another “unicorn”, the Patek Philippe Graves Complication – what’s really going on.

When we spoke, Bacs was preparing to sell 42 vintage and rare timepieces on behalf of long-time Heuer collectors Richard Crosthwaite and Paul Gavin. And if there was ever evidence of a growing fascination for postwar complicated timepieces, then the Crosthwaite & Gavin sale was it – achieving more than $1m and further sealing the reputation of the steel-cased chronograph as a serious bet for would-be watch investors.

As far as Bacs is concerned though, it isn’t the love of old horlogerie alone that’s driving demand: “Vintage and collectors’ watches have now reached a level of appreciation that is close to the art and car market. Years ago, the world record for an impressionist painting was $17m – and that would be Louvre and Getty quality – so while the impressionist painting is now at $100m, the Paul Newman Daytona at $17m shows that today there is a greater appreciation for all fine things.

“We also have to admit that money is becoming less and less valuable. I remember my grandfather explaining to me that a millionaire was someone who had a million in the bank and therefore could live the rest of his life on the interest alone and never touch the capital. Try to do that today and that explains what inflation did to our savings.”

The temptation for some, then, might be to double-down on their watch purchase and buy with an eye to the future. But Bacs warns there are some salient – and striking – differences between the markets for new and rare and/or vintage watches that dictate both upfront and residual values.

“In some ways [the markets] are connected but in other ways they are entirely disconnected,” he says. “Our market is driven by supply and demand, while contemporary production is driven by what it costs to manufacture a watch, R&D, marketing, distribution – all of which we don’t have – and the profit margin. Which is all fair and understood. And a watch company can decide if they want to make 50, 100 or 500 pieces. Whereas we are in a market where supply is driving the market. Can supply increase? Unlikely, as we cannot reproduce Paul Newman’s Daytona or anything else uber-rare. Remember, there are only four steel Ref 1518 Patek Philippes in existence. So the mechanism for the price-finding mechanism is very different.

“But then the reason you buy a new watch is often quite different. You buy a brand new Rolex Daytona or Day-Date because it’s a superbly made, sturdy, reliable, quality watch that you can use in every type of environment – whether that’s diving in Bora Bora, climbing the Matterhorn or sitting in a boardroom meeting, You don’t buy Paul Newman’s watch for the same reason – that is a work of art. It’s like a painting, it’s emotional, it’s historical, it’s a piece of humanity.”

All of which suggests that the right piece, in the right condition, authenticated by a reputable reseller or – preferably – auction house is the way to go for anyone looking for a watch that might also be act as an appreciating asset. But there’s one further hurdle to clear, argues Bacs, and that’s beating the odds around “market sentiment”, both micro and macro.

“We have seen this in the art market, where this area is less popular, or that area is less popular,” argues Bacs. “We have seen it in the car market, where prewar is suddenly softening, and postwar is suddenly hot. So a drift in demand or a change in trend is absolutely one possible factor [affecting price].

“But we also have to understand that we are living in a very weird world, because behind every corner is a surprise. Brexit, Trump, North Korea, the EU, the middle east – every day something is happening. And should the leaders of the world, or the financial or political landscape do something really weird, I don’t think any of us would be immune. There are plenty of events that are not watch-related. And we need to be aware of that now that things are no longer cast in stone.”

All of which boils down to that time-honoured trope, buyer beware.

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And if the vagaries of the investment market don’t appeal? Well, as discussed, for those looking for a “vintage feel” timepiece without the burden of expectation (or calamitous depreciation) that could come from an ill-advised entry into the pre-owned arena, there is a growing number of alternatives.

Last year, Patrick Pruniaux left Apple, where he had worked on the launch of its first watch before heading up the tech giant’s UK business, to become CEO of Ulysse Nardin, the Le Locle-based manufacture recently sold to Kering, the group controlling Gucci and Bottega Veneta among other luxury brands.

Ulysse Nardin is a venerable, if undervalued, business, chiefly recognised for supplying marine chronometers to some of the world’s most powerful navies. In this regard, its Torpilleur collection (French for “destroyer”) would fit the bill for a true “heritage” timepiece.

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Notwithstanding its contemporary credentials (including the use of highly resistant yet ultra-smooth silicon in its chronometer-rated movement) the Torpilleur (above) speaks to the current trend for “neo-vintage” perfectly without complicating the matter with decades-old innards or possibly “faulty” provenance – the perfect antidote, then, to the dangers both apparent and hidden in the undergrowth of the vintage market. Not that Pruniaux is necessarily relying on it.

“There is probably a pattern forming from a consumer point of view,” concedes Prunaux of the “neo-vintage” trend in play, but he says, “By introducing [a] product like this, we are merely reinforcing in consumers’ minds our heritage and history. We haven’t been talking much about our heritage, so supporting that, for us, is only a positive.”

£3,900. tagheuer.co.uk

Todd Sutherland

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In the meantime, both Montblanc and TAG Heuer (which recently re-editioned an Autavia – pictured above – based on a version worn by the German racer Jochen Rindt after polling 50,000 Heueristi via its website) offer a similar approach to achieving that desirably “aged” look in a modern watch.

But what of the real thing? Does Bacs see Newman’s talismanic sports chronograph reaching a new record price should it return to the auction room any time soon? “It is impossible to tell…” he demurs, before adding, “However, one of the under-bidders with whom I had a really nice dinner following the NY auction, said, ‘I am so annoyed. I dropped out too early – on consideration I should have gone further….’”

In the meantime, the senior consultant of Bacs & Russo is readying the market for another 'unicorn' piece: the only known example of a manually-wound Rolex Daytona Cosmograph in white gold. It will headline 'Daytona Ultimatum', a thematic sale offering 32 of the rarest and most sought-after Daytonas taking place on 12 May at Phillips in Geneva. But beware: estimates suggest it won't sell for less than $3m.

Baselworld runs March 22-27 and GQ.co.uk will be reporting live from the fair over the first three days. Be sure to follow on Facebook, Twitter and Instagram.