Sunday, September 30, 2012

For a comprehensive look at student loan debt, Pew has a large, new study based on a special tabulation of the 2010 Survey of Consumer Finances. In a nutshell, 19 percent of households had outstanding student loans in 2010, including 40 percent of households headed by people under age 35. Among those with student loans, the average outstanding balance was $26,682.

Saturday, September 29, 2012

Median household income fell 1.1 percent between July and August 2012 after adjusting for inflation, according to the latest monthly update from Sentier Research. The August median of $50,678 was $543 less than the July median. This was a statistically significant decline and the first significant change in the median since an 0.7 percent increase in May.Median household income in August 2012 was 5.7 percent lower than median household income in June 2009--the end of the Great Recession. It was 8.1 percent lower than the median in December 2007, the start of the Great Recession. It was 9.0 percent lower than the median in January 2000. The Household Income Index for August 2012 was 91.0 (January 2000 = 100.0).

For those who would like the entire household income series with monthly data from January 2000 through August 2012, the Excel file is available from Sentier's web site for $25. The series includes median household income, the Household Income Index, and various unemployment indicators.Source: Sentier Research, Household Income Down by 1.1 Percent between July 2012 and August 2012

Friday, September 28, 2012

Thanks to our biracial president, the number of Americans who identify themselves as black and white doubled in size between 2000 and 2010. I have posted about this before, and I'm posting about it again because of yesterday's release of the 2010 Census report, The Two or More Races Population: 2010.

The number of black-white biracial Americans climbed from 785,000 in 2000 to 1.8 million in 2010--a 133 percent increase. The black-white combination not only outpaced the growth of any other biracial group, but it is now the largest segment of the multiracial population. Those who identify themselves as both black and white accounted for fully 20 percent of the nation's 9 million multiracial Americans in 2010, up from 11 percent of the multiracial in 2000.

Thursday, September 27, 2012

This is the news we've been waiting for: "In many of the largest cities of the most-populous metro areas, downtown is becoming a place not only to work but also to live."

That announcement is not coming from mayors or urban developers, but from the Census Bureau in a detailed report on metropolitan growth trends. Along with the report, the Census Bureau has released a data file with population density by distance to city hall for every metropolitan area. Wow!

"Between the 2000 and 2010 censuses, metro areas with 5 million or more people experienced double-digit population growth rates within their downtown areas (within a two-mile radius of their largest city's city hall), more than double the rate of these areas overall," says the Census Bureau. Those words confirm what many have been witnessing--an ongoing urban renaissance as younger Americans flee far-flung suburbs and rural areas for urban centers. Between 2000 and 2010, the number of people aged 18 to 24 expanded by 15 percent in metropolitan areas, increased by only 6 percent in the nation's smaller cities, and fell 0.7 percent in nonmetro areas.

The resurgence of urban centers is rooted in economics. Not only do young (and middle-aged) adults face dwindling employment prospects in nonmetropolitan areas, but the Internet has made them aware of the alternatives. Who woulda thunk it? Just a few years ago, the pundits were pontificating about how the Internet would allow us to hole up in our rural outpost and still earn a living. Instead, the Internet has revealed the creative energy, networking power, and economic opportunity of the nation's cities.

Between 2010 and 2011, the average annual household spending of the nation's biggest spenders fell more than the spending of any other age group. Householders aged 45 to 54 spent $58,050 in 2011, nearly 3 percent less than they spent in 2010 after adjusting for inflation. Between 2006 (when overall household spending peaked) and 2011, the average annual spending of this age group fell 10 percent--a decline of more than $6,000.

Wednesday, September 26, 2012

Between 2010 and 2011, the average annual household spending of the nation's young adults grew faster than the spending of any other age group. Householders under age 25 spent $29,912 in 2011. This was 5.5 percent higher than in 2010, after adjusting for inflation, an increase of more than $1,500.

What accounts for the increase? The same factor that explains why the median household income of young adults grew faster than that of any other age group between 2010 and 2011. In a word: attrition. In 2011, there were 291,000 fewer consumer units headed by people under age 25 than a year earlier. With so many young adults abandoning independent living and moving in with their parents, the remaining householders are those with jobs and money to spend.

How much money per month will your family need for a comfortable retirement? That's what MetLife Mature Market Institute asked respondents aged 45 to 80 in an online survey, and the answer was $4,371 per month on average (or $52,452 annually). With Social Security providing an average of $1,235 per month, that means $3,136 additional monthly income needs to come from other sources such as savings and pensions.

Tuesday, September 25, 2012

The average household spent $49,705 in 2011, according to the Consumer Expenditure Survey. The good news is that household spending has stabilized, rising by a scant 0.16 percent between 2010 and 2011 after adjusting for inflation--an increase of $77. This stability is welcome after two years of sharp declines. The bad news is that household spending remains well below the $54,001 peak of 2006 and is only $8 more than the $49,697 of 2000.

Monday, September 24, 2012

Last week the Census Bureau released 2011 American Community Survey data. The data dump includes tables comparing the social and economic characteristics of the U.S. before, during, and after the Great Recession--from 2007 through 2011. Some of the statistically significant changes provide clues about the direction of the housing market and the ongoing struggles of the American people...

The percentage of households without a vehicle has climbed steadily, growing from 8.7 percent in 2007 to 9.3 percent in 2011.

The percentage of owner-occupied housing units with a mortgage has fallen by 2 percentage points--from 68.4 percent in 2007 to 66.4 percent in 2011.

For homeowners with a mortgage, monthly owner costs have fallen from $1,725 in 2007 (in 2011 dollars) to $1,486 in 2011--a 14 percent decline.

Although the number of renters has grown, median monthly rent fell from $926 in 2007 (in 2011 dollars) to $871 in 2011--a 6 percent decline.

Although median rent has been falling, the share of renters who devote 35 percent or more of their household income to rent grew from 40 to 44 percent between 2007 and 2011.

The federal government has been putting a lot of effort into upgrading user experience (UX) for the American public. Increasingly, the government's data can be accessed in any number of ways, such as the newly designed web site from the Census Bureau, the Facebook page of the National Center for Health Statistics, the Twitter feed from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, America's Economy mobile phone app from the Census Bureau, and a growing number of interactive sites where you can build your own charts and tables, such as Health, United States 2011: In Brief, Interactive Version.

Sunday, September 23, 2012

Americans are gaining weight. What else is new? How about this: the percentage of Americans who are overweight but not obese hasn't changed in the past half century according to a government analysis of trends in Body Mass Index (weight in kilograms divided by height in meters squared). What has changed is the percentage of Americans who are obese.

Among Americans aged 20 to 74, the percentage who were overweight but not obese (with a BMI ranging from 25.0 to 29.9) was measured at 31.5 percent in 1960-62 and at a nearly identical 32.7 percent in 2009-10. But, the percentage who were obese (with a BMI of 30.0 or greater) ballooned from just 13.4 percent to fully 36.1 percent during those years. Today, more than one-third of Americans are obese--nearly triple the percentage five decades ago.

Saturday, September 22, 2012

Almost every state has lost ground economically since the start of the Great Recession in 2007, according to American Community Survey data. Only three states (Wyoming, South Dakota, and North Dakota) and the District of Columbia had a higher median household income in 2011 than in 2007, after adjusting for inflation. These are the 10 states in which median household income declined the most during those years...

Friday, September 21, 2012

Do you agree or disagree with that statement? Fully 70 percent of white working-class Americans believe in the divine quality of the United States versus only 42 percent of their college-educated counterparts. This finding comes from a rich new study of the white working-class by the Public Religion Research Institute. The study defines the white working-class as non-Hispanic whites without a four-year college degree who hold non-salaried jobs, and it analyzes the politics and values of this much-talked-about but rarely measured demographic.

One of the most important findings of the study is this: if you're looking for the stereotypical white working-class, look no further than the South. "Southern white working-class Americans stand out from white working-class Americans in the Northeast, Midwest, and West on a number of cultural attitudes and attributes," says the study. For example:

80 percent of working-class whites in the South believe God has granted America a special place in human history (versus 61 to 66 percent of working-class whites in the other regions).

62 percent of working-class whites in the South own a gun (versus 38 to 50 percent in the other regions).

58 percent of working-class whites in the South think the government has paid too much attention to the problems of blacks and other minorities (versus 40 to 48 percent in the other regions).

69 percent of working-class whites in the South believe discrimination against whites is as big a problem as discrimination against blacks and other minorities (versus 55 to 59 percent in the other regions).

62 percent of working-class whites in the South are Romney supporters (versus 36 to 46 percent in the other regions).

Thursday, September 20, 2012

When the Census Bureau releases housing statistics from the American Community Survey, it's a big deal. That's because nothing beats the American Community Survey for accuracy (because of its massive sample size) and timeliness (updated every year).

The big deal happened today with the release of 2011 results. Here are ACS homeownership rates by age in 2011 and a comparison with ACS 2010 estimates (in parens). Note: in the past year, the homeownership rate fell in every age group. The biggest decline occurred among householders aged 35 to 44 (down 1.9 percentage points).

The median value of owner-occupied homes fell to $173,600 in 2011, according to the American Community Survey. This is down from a median of $185,600 in 2010 (in 2011 dollars)--a 6 percent decline. Since 2007, median housing value has fallen 18 percent.

Wednesday, September 19, 2012

Ten percent of pet owners have taken their pet to work. Young adults are most likely to do so, with 18 percent of millennials (aged 18 to 35) either occasionally or frequently taking their pet to work.

The Great Recession drained the retirement savings of boomers, forcing many to work years longer than they had planned. Are these working boomers crowding young adults out of the labor force?

According to an analysis by Pew Economic Mobility Project, the answer is no: the greater the employment of boomers, the greater the employment and wages of young adults. As the saying goes, a rising tide lifts all boats. "Greater employment of older persons leads to better outcomes for the young," concludes the study.

Tuesday, September 18, 2012

Employee tenure is rising--of course. As the labor force ages, employee tenure should rise. The median number of years wage-and-salary workers have been with their current employer climbed from 4.4 years in 2010 to 4.6 years in 2012, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Job tenure is rising the most among workers aged 65 or older, climbing from a median of 9.9 years in 2010 to 10.3 years in 2012 as boomers postpone retirement. A decade ago in 2002, the median tenure of workers aged 65 or older was just 8.6 years. The percentage of workers aged 65 or older who have been with their current employer for 10 or more years grew from 48.0 percent in 2002 to 55.5 percent in 2012.

Are you saving enough for retirement? You can find out by downloading the free Ballpark E$timate app from the Apple iTunes store.

Created by the Employee Benefit Research Institute, this easy-to-use app gives you a ballpark estimate of your income when you retire based on your age, current retirement savings, expected pension income, and Social Security. It tells you how much monthly income you can expect in retirement and how much more you will need to save to get to the income level you need.

Monday, September 17, 2012

Only 32 percent of the nation's households included children under age 18 in 2012, down from 36 percent in 2000. Nuclear families (married couples with children under age 18) now account for only 21 percent of households.

Number (in 000s) and percent of households with children under age 18, 2012
Total households: 121,084 (100%)
Total households with children: 38,476 (32%)
Married couples with children: 25,114 (21%)
Female-headed families with children: 10,380 (9%)
Male-headed families with children: 2,982 (2%)

Saturday, September 15, 2012

Older Americans, universally covered by the federal government's Medicare program, are most satisfied with their medical care. Among people aged 18 or older who have been to a health care provider at least once in the past year, the percentage who were "very satisfied" with their most recent medical visit rises with age from a low of 35 percent among Millennials (aged 18 to 35) to a high of 56 percent among Matures (aged 67 or older).

Source: Harris Interactive, Patient Choice an Increasingly Important Factor in the Age of the "Healthcare Consumer"

Friday, September 14, 2012

Amazingly, the percentage of Americans without health insurance fell between 2010 and 2011. In 2011, 15.7 percent of the population did not have health insurance, down from 16.3 percent in 2010--a statistically significant decline, according to the Census Bureau. This decline occurred despite the struggling economy and the continuing loss of employment-based health insurance. Since 2000, the percentage of the population covered by employment-based health insurance has fallen by a full 10 percentage points, from 65.1 to 55.1 percent.

Medicare is one of the reasons more Americans have health insurance. Now that millions of baby boomers are turning 65, Medicare coverage is growing. Between 2010 and 2011, the percentage of the population covered by Medicare climbed from 14.6 to 15.2 percent.

Thursday, September 13, 2012

The earnings of American men have been stagnant for more than a generation. In 2011, men who worked full-time earned a median of $48,202, according to the Census Bureau. This was $2,411 less than the $50,613 (in 2011 dollars) earned by their counterparts in 1973--the year men's earnings peaked.

Although there has been a lot of talk about the crowded nest in the wake of the Great Recession, in fact average household size fell to a record low in 2012.

According to the Census Bureau, only 2.55 people live in the average American household. The previous low was 2.56 people per household in 2007 and 2008. Behind shrinking household size is the aging of the population. On average, Americans are getting older, and older people are most likely to live alone. The number of single-person households expanded to 33.2 million in 2012, a record high and 2 million more than before the Great Recession in 2007. The rising fortunes of the elderly are also behind the increase. Householders aged 65 or older were the only ones to see their median household income grow during the past decade.

Overall, 13.4 percent of Americans aged 15 or older live alone. The figure ranges from a low of 3.2 percent among people under age 25 to a high of 28.5 percent among people aged 65 or older.

Wednesday, September 12, 2012

Nearly half (45 percent) of Americans aged 18 or older own a smartphone, according to the latest survey by Pew Internet and American Life Project. Young adults are most likely to own a smartphone, with 66 percent of 18-to-29-year-olds having one as of September 2012. The 59 percent majority of 30-to-49-year-olds also own a smartphone, but the proportion falls to 34 percent among 50-to-64-year-olds and to just 11 percent among people aged 65 or older.

Besides the elderly, those least likely to own a smartphone are non-Hispanic whites (42 percent), people in rural areas (29 percent), and the least educated (21 percent).

Median household income fell to $50,054 in 2011 (see the trend here). The continuing decline in the median is no surprise given that we are mired at the bottom of an economic trough carved out by the Great Recession. To get a feel for what's happening down here in the muck, take a look at median household income trends (in 2011 dollars) by age of householder...

Under age 25
Median household income in 2011: $30,460
Change in median since 2010: +4.6%
Change in median since 2000: -16.2%
This is one of only two age groups to see an increase in median household income between 2010 and 2011. What accounts for their good fortune? Attrition. Many young adults, unable to find jobs, gave up living independently and moved back in with their parents. This demographic segment has finally hit bottom, and young householders with jobs are all that remains.

Aged 25 to 34
Median household income in 2011: $50,774
Change in median since 2010: -1.3%
Change in median since 2000: -12.5%

Aged 35 to 44
Median household income in 2011: $61,916
Change in median since 2010: -2.3%
Change in median since 2000: -11.8%

Aged 45 to 54
Median household income in 2011: $63,861
Change in median since 2010: -0.7%
Change in median since 2000: -15.1%
The median household income of this age group has declined by an astounding $12,945 since the 1999 peak of $76,806. The small 2010-11 decline--smaller than the decline in any other age group--may mean this age group is hitting bottom.

Aged 55 to 64
Median household income in 2011: $55,937
Change in median since 2010: -4.0%
Change in median since 2000: -4.5%

Aged 65 or older
Median household income in 2011: $33,118
Change in median since 2010: +2.0%
Change in median since 2000: +9.9%
This is one of only two age groups to gain ground between 2010 and 2011, and it is the only age group with income growth between 2000 and 2011. Thank you Social Security!

Median household income fell 1.5 percent between 2010 and 2011, to $50,054 after adjusting for inflation. The annual median has been declining every year since the $54,489 of 2007. But the 2007 figure was inflated by the housing bubble and its excesses. In fact, the peak in median household income occurred all the way back in 1999.

Tuesday, September 11, 2012

Median household income held steady between June and July 2012 after adjusting for inflation, according to the latest monthly update from Sentier Research. The July median of $50,938 was $57 greater than the June median, but the gain was not statistically significant.

"The relatively flat trend in real median annual household income since the beginning of the year is indicative of a struggling economy," says Gordon Green of Sentier Research. "As we have noted in our previous reports, we are watching this household income series closely for signs of any sustained directional movement." Tomorrow, the Census Bureau's will release official 2011 income, poverty, and health insurance statistics from the Current Population Survey--the same dataset used by Sentier to produce its monthly estimates. Sentier's findings are a good six months ahead of what the Census Bureau will release, but the Census Bureau's data will include demographic detail, as well as 2011 estimates of the earnings of men and women, health insurance coverage, and poverty rates.

Sentier notes that median household income in July 2012 was 4.6 percent lower than median household income in June 2009--the end of the Great Recession. It was 7.1 percent lower than the median in December 2007, the start of the Great Recession. It was 8.0 percent lower than the median in January 2000.The Household Income Index for July 2012 was 92.0 (January 2000 = 100.0).Source: Sentier Research, Household Income Statistically Unchanged between June 2012 and July 2012

Nearly one-third (32 percent) of Americans say they are in the lower or lower-middle classes, according to a Pew Research Center survey, up from 25 percent in 2008.

By age, the lower class is largest among young adults. Fully 39 percent of 18-to-29-year-olds say they are lower or lower-middle class, up from the 25 percent who felt that way in 2008. In contrast, only 20 percent of people aged 65 or older say they are lower or lower-middle class--about the same as in 2008.

By race and Hispanic origin, the percentage who say they are lower or lower-middle class has expanded the most among Hispanics (rising from 30 to 40 percent between 2008 and 2012) and non-Hispanic whites (rising from 23 to 31 percent). Among blacks during those years, the figure has remained stable at 33 percent.

Monday, September 10, 2012

As if we didn't have enough to worry about, here's something else: woefully inadequate pension coverage among private-sector workers. "Coverage of private-sector workers in employer-sponsored plans is shockingly low and shows no sign of improving on its own," reports the Center for Retirement Research at Boston College in "The Pension Coverage Problem in the Private Sector."

How low is shockingly low? Only 42 percent of private-sector workers aged 25 to 64 have pension coverage at their current job, according to the report, down from 50 percent in 1979. This low level of coverage is why one-third of households end up with no pension coverage at all in retirement. And because workers move in and out of coverage throughout their work lives, they accumulate less over time than they would have if their participation had been continuous. Households headed by people aged 55 to 64 have a median of only $120,000 in IRA/401(k) savings versus the $363,000 they would have had if they had continuously participated in a retirement plan.

To solve the problem, the report recommends a new tier of retirement savings. One such proposal is the Harkin Plan: a government mandated, privately managed, defined-contribution pension program.

Sunday, September 09, 2012

If they had the choice, the 51 percent majority of women aged 18 or older would prefer to have a job outside the home and a smaller 44 percent would choose to stay home and take care of the family. Among men, the figures are 76 percent and 22 percent, respectively, according to a Gallup survey.

The difference in attitudes by age is small. Among women aged 18 to 49, the 52 percent majority would prefer a job to homemaking. Among women aged 50 or older, 49 percent would prefer having a job--slightly greater than the 48 percent who would prefer homemaking.

By education, the difference in attitudes is bigger. Women with at least some college education would prefer a job to homemaking by 57 to 38 percent. Women with less education would prefer homemaking to a job by 53 to 41 percent.

Saturday, September 08, 2012

How much would you spend to save your pet's life? That's the question Consumer Reports asked in a survey of subscribers. Focusing on their oldest pet (with an average age of 9), this is what they said...

Friday, September 07, 2012

Check out the nifty interactive charts on Student Loan Debt History created by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. The charts show total student loan debt, average loan balance, number of borrowers, and proportion of loans 90+ days delinquent for total borrowers and borrowers by age. The data are shown by quarter from the first quarter of 2005 through the first quarter of 2012.

Here are a few nuggets from the charts:

The under-30 age group accounted for 38 percent of the 37.1 million student loan borrowers in the first quarter of 2012. This is down from their 46 percent share of the nation's 23.3 million student loan borrowers in the first quarter of 2005.

Borrowers aged 30 to 39 have the highest average student loan balance--$28,906 in the first quarter of 2012, up from $20,047 in the first quarter of 2005.

More than 2 million people aged 60 or older have student loan debt.

Borrowers aged 40 to 49 are most likely to be 90+ days delinquent on their loans, at 11.9 percent in the first quarter of 2012.

Is a gap year for high school graduates a good idea, as some people suggest? Taking a year off to work or travel, the argument goes, turns young adults into serious students and enhances their college experience.

It sounds appealing in theory. But in reality, a gap year may not be such a great idea. So finds economist Jonathan James of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland in a comparison of the college completion rates of both types of students. Among students who enter a four-year institution immediately after high school, 62 percent earn a bachelor's degree within six years. Among students who take a gap year before going to college, only 32 percent earn a degree.

"One of the strongest correlates with bachelor's degree completion is the timing of postsecondary education," says James. The sooner young adults go to college after high school, the more likely they are to earn a college degree.

Wednesday, September 05, 2012

Among women with children under age 6, nearly two out of three are in the labor force (63.9 percent). The labor force participation rate of mothers with preschoolers is highest among blacks and lowest among Hispanics. Here are the percentages by race and Hispanic origin...

The percentage of the eating-out dollar Americans devote to fast-food restaurants varies greatly by household type. The busiest households devote the largest share of their restaurant spending to fast-food. By household type, here is the percentage of restaurant spending allocated to fast-food...

Single-parent families: 51%
Married couples with preschoolers: 44%
Married couples with adult children at home: 42%
Married couples with school-aged children: 40%
Single-person households: 36%
Married couples without children at home: 30%

Monday, September 03, 2012

How do you compare the wages of workers in one country versus another? It's not an easy task because standards of living also differ. Here's an ingenious way: compare the hourly wages of McDonald's workers with the price of a Big Mac, by country.

That's what economist Orley Ashenfelter did for more than 60 countries, and the results are presented in the National Bureau of Economic Research study, "Comparing Real Wages" (NBER Working Paper 18006, $5). To make the comparison, Ashenfelter creates a new measure--Big Macs per Hours Worked (or BMPH). He takes the average hourly wage of a McDonald's crew member in each country and divides it by the price of a Big Mac in that country. He finds considerable differences in real wages by country, with BMPH ranging from 3.09 in Japan to just 0.35 in Latin America and India.

ABOUT ME

Demographer and editorial director of New Strategist Press, Cheryl Russell is the former editor-in-chief of American Demographics magazine and The Boomer Report. She has written numerous books about demographic trends. Ms. Russell is a professional demographer with a master's degree from Cornell University.