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TC's 2013 Mock Offseason

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If you haven't been around long, then you probably don't know... I try to do one of these "offseason plans" at the end of each season. I usually do a mock free agency along with a mock draft based on the assumption that I get the guys I want in free agency.

A little about my philosophy: In free agency, I want younger talent. I'm looking for guys who are coming off their rookie contract or looking for their 3rd contract at the most... anyone older than 28 has to be a special talent with proven longevity, a good locker room presence, and willing to be a mentor.

In the draft, I use the first 2-4 rounds as an extension of free agency. Any holes I haven't plugged in free agency, I try to address in the first 3 rounds of the draft. After the 3rd round, I'm usually looking for the best player on the board... someone with raw ability who can be groomed to be a starter in the future.

So, let's get started.

The Chiefs have hired offense-minded Andy Reid as their new head coach. John Dorsey is their new General Manager and they've tagged Bob Sutton as their next DC. What we know from this group is that Reid likes an offense built around the pass and enjoys having mobile QBs. We know the Chiefs have a desperate need at the QB position and the #1 pick in the draft.

The scary hire was Bob Sutton. The Chiefs have spent a TON of resources building on the defensive side of the ball. Now, they've hired an offensive HC and a DC who didn't do too well as the DC for the Jets under Mangini. His schemes are bland, no blitzes, poorly designed, and never ranked higher than 16th overall. The Chiefs defense is a unit without a direction and being that Sutton has experience in the Tampa 2 4-3, the 2 gap 3-4, and now the 1 gap 3-4, he seems to be a Defensive Coordinator without a direction as well. This all leads me to believe there won't be too much attention given to the defensive side of the ball.

I COULD be wrong however because Andy Reid has a history of taking CBs and pass-rushing DEs in free agency and the draft. This could be a good thing considering Tyson Jackson is scheduled to make $14m in 2013 and is a prime target to be cut. The Chiefs also have a need at CB depth as well as at Safety. The Chiefs will also need at least one ILB and may also need to bring in another OLB depending on which defensive scheme they settle on. Glenn Dorsey is also scheduled to be an unrestricted free agent.

On the flip side, outside of the QB position, the Chiefs will also be looking at WRs with a decision needing to be made on Dwayne Bowe who's scheduled to be an UFA, evaluations needed on Breaston, Baldwin, McCluster, and the rest of the corp in order to effectively address the situation. There's also a decision that needs to be made in regards to Branden Albert who is scheduled to be an UFA as well. The offensive line has substantial depth, but letting Albert walk may require replacing him with a free agent or with the #1 overall pick. The loss of Ryan Lilja shouldn't do much to hurt the O-line, but the next man up needs to be backed up. The offensive line has always been a priority for Andy Reid and this year should be no different.

So, let's dive into the free agent pool. Top priority: QB
Not too many options here. With the Chiefs perhaps bringing in Sporano as the O-line coach, one has to wonder if Matt Moore gets a chance to come in and compete. Assuming Flacco doesn't hit the free agent market after taking his team to the AFC Championship (so far), the FA talent pool is MUCH shallower than the extremely shallow QB draft class.

Offensive Line: The Sporano connection rears its head again. The Chiefs have concerns about Branden Albert's back and what they can expect from him on a long-term deal. Ryan Clady will be the biggest name scheduled to be an UFA, but there's no way Manning allows one of the best pass protectors in the game to walk. The next big name on the list of UFAs is none other than former top pick by the Dolphins, Jake Long. Long also has injury concerns but may be enticed to come play in KC. Andy Levitre is the top OG scheduled to hit the free agent market. Contract talks have gone nowhere in the past between he and the Bills and may get the chance to hit the open market.

WRs: Greg Jennings, Dwayne Bowe, and Mike Wallace headline the WR crop this season. With the new offense being pass-heavy, I just don't see Reid allowing Bowe to walk. Bowe will be extended and Dorsey will reel in Greg Jennings. With Baldwin and Breaston filling out #3 and #4, the Chiefs will boast one of the best WR corps in the league and will provide the new QB plenty of weapons with which to destroy his opponent.

TEs: Jared Cook is one of, if not THE most athletic TEs in the league. He has almost ZERO interest in returning to Tennessee and with the new offense centered around the pass in KC, Cook could see this team as a very big opportunity for him to finally break out.

DL: The Chiefs DL will take a hit this year. Jackson will probably not be here. There's a good chance Dorsey won't have much interest in returning. The defensive side of the ball is going to be the hardest for us to fill out considering that I don't think the Chiefs staff has any idea what defense they want to run yet. I'm going to go out on a limb (where I'm sure I'll be all by myself) and say the Chiefs are going to run a 1-gap 3-4. I realize this is a defense Reid has never run. However, I think this is the defense that the Chiefs are currently best-suited for with Sutton seeing the success Ryan had with it in NY. If the Chiefs run this defense, they have Hali and Houston at DE and Poe inside with DJ at LB. That means they need 3 LBs to fill out the defense. So, there isn't too much need along the DL except for random depth which could be filled by the guys currently on the roster, with late picks in the draft, or free agents after the draft. This defense is the same ran in New York with the Giants AND Jets. Osi Umenyiora is a top pass rushing DE that may hit the FA market. He is 6'3 255 and runs a 4.7 40. Hali is 6'3 270 with a 4.7 40 and Houston is 6'3 258 with a 4.6 40. These guys can handle the position.

LBs: Anthony Spencer, Phillip Wheeler, Shaun Phillips, and Manny Lawson are the top names on the LB FA market. The Cowboys franchised Spencer last season and Phillips is 31. If they can get one of these guys, I think they'll be in good shape.

CBs: Chris Houston, Aqib Talib, Leodis McKelvin, Sean Smith, and Dominique Rogers-Cromartie are the top names of the CB FA class. Chris Houston would be my first choice. Talib will probably go back to NE after they win the Super Bowl. I could see this staff going after Rogers-Cromartie from Philly or maybe Sam Shields from Green Bay even though he'll be a RFA.

S: The Chiefs need a safety who's reliable to put next to Berry in the defensive backfield. Top names on the market are Jairus Byrd, Dashon Goldson, Kenny Phillips, William Moore, Pat Chung, and Loius Delmas. Reid isn't known for spending assets on safeties, so I wouldn't expect much from him at this position. Byrd would be a nice addition, but he'll cost a pretty penny.

The Chiefs replace Branden Albert with a less expensive upgrade in Luke Joekel. They get better value with this pick than if they had decided to take a QB #1 overall. Joekel fits into a line that boasts Jon Asamoah, Rodney Hudson, Andy Levitre, and Eric Winston with depth provided by in Stephenson and Allen.

2nd Round
ILB Alec Ogletree Georgia

Ogletree would look GREAT next to DJ inside. Ogletree is a DJ clone. Great sideline to sideline defender with elite speed. He may not be available here, but if he gets passed the Bengals, I think he'll slide. This pick helps with the LB overhaul done by the organization because of their shift from the 2-gap to a 1-gap 3-4.

3rd Round
3a. OLB Alex Okafor Texas
The Chiefs need one more LB for their overhaul and the OLB out of Texas was the lone bright spot on an underwhelming defense. If Okafor is still available in the 3rd, he could be a a steal for the Chiefs.

3b. (compensation for Carr) WR/QB Denard Robinson Michigan

There are worse things to draft late in the 3rd than a play-making athlete who has played the QB position. No one thought Russell Wilson could win the job at QB either.

4th Round *Traded

5th
DB Tyrann Mathieu

Off the field issues should not scare anyone away from top 5 talent in the 5th round. We need another play-maker in the secondary and you couldn't ask for a better one than the "Honey Badger" in the 5th round. (**may be worth a higher pick as we get closer to the draft)

6th Round
QB Logan Thomas Virginia Tech

I know... off the radar, right? Check this out: 6'6 240lb. Bigger than Big Ben, Joe Flacco, and Cam Newton. Newton runs a 4.58, Thomas a 4.67, and Ben a 4.78. Make no mistake, he's definitely a project. Ranked 108 in comp% and 8th in turnovers with a longer than you'd like throwing motion. He'll probably sit for a year or two to refine his craft before he truly competes to be the starter, but if he puts the pieces together, his talent could make him a star. There are worse ways to spend a 6th round pick.

I know it's probably not "big splash" approach to the QB position all of us want, but there's just no clear-cut answer for the Chiefs at #1 overall. There are injury questions about Albert and a VERY good LT option worth the #1 overall pick. Allowing Albert to walk clears up more space to sign some key free agents. If the Chiefs are able to turn a 4th round pick into two QBs who can come compete for the position, I think that's great value for that pick. Tyrod Taylor is a younger Mike Vick. If a mobile QB is what Reid wants, I think the better option is to go get a Tyrod Taylor or Pat White with a later round draft pick trade than wasting the first pick on Geno Smith. I think there's at LEAST an average, short-term solution in that group of QBs that could afford the Chiefs a different opportunity to fill the position long-term in the future.

Think about this for a second: Mike Vick, Tyrod Taylor, Geno Smith, Pat White, Josh Freeman, Jason Campbell, Logan Thomas, E.J. Manual, and Donovan McNabb could all be available to the Chiefs by way of draft, trade, or free agent signing this winter. All of them possess similar attributes. Think about what each of those QBs may cost compared to what they'd bring to the Chiefs and honestly assess which QB presents the greatest value. I'm sorry, but I look at that group of QBs and I just don't see one name that separates himself from the rest of the pack. So why would Geno Smith be worth the #1 overall pick when you could have any of the other guys for MUCH less.

I should also point out that in terms of QB evaluation, I was one of the biggest Russell Wilson advocates last year. I really hoped the Chiefs took him w/ the Stephenson pick (he went one pick later).

You can question me all day long, and I've been wrong plenty of times. I'll gladly have it known that Geno is my #1 QB prospect, Wilson #2, Dysert #3, Nassib/Glennon/Barkley all in that next tier.

We all keep making the case for or against Geno. And I have no idea which is why I am asking. Who is the possible russel Wilson of this draft. Since we will be drafting at the top of the 3rd and a supplemental 3rd is there a russel Wilson type sleeper. Or is this class really that weak on talent at the QB spot.

Still never beat or even faced a top 25 defense and had the benefit of having WRs who were MUCH better than the players they played against. The more you look at Geno Smith, the more he looks like pyrite.

I've read everything on geno, i've watched tons of tape of geno, and i've seen all the charts on geno's accuracy. And there is no denying the kid is accurate but again like texaschief said. He does it against VERY VERY bad defenses where his windows are huge. He has 2 all pro recievers that create alot of seperation against below par defenses, Hence geno can just sit and lock onto his #1 read and wait for them to open. He won't have that luxury in the NFL and he didn't have that luxury when facing good Defenses in college. Once those windows shrink and he has constant pressure on him he will not be the QB you guys have fallen in love with. Now can he overcome and evolve his game? I honestly don't know, my personal opinion is that he will be a mediocre QB in this league. I want our next franchise QB as bad as anyone, but i don't think geno is him, he would just be a stop gap like we have right now so why waste it on him?

I will also say that i don't like the joekel pick, i hope brandon's back is fine and we can resign him, i hope we sign bowe, and if we are curious about albert at all then just franchise him and see how he plays this year and see how the back plays out. But if there is any question at all his back becomes and issue like gaither's and he will only be a shadow of his former self then we take joekel.

My endorsement on QB would be Barkley, or Wilson. Both have played and succeeded against some of the best defenses in NCAA and both are very smart. Wilson obviously has the size and arm advantage, but barkley has the smarts and style advantage. I see wilson being a great QB, he handles pressure well, strong armed and is pretty smart with the football.
I see barkley as great to elite QB in this league. He's smart as hell, he's been groomed since a child to play this game, his mechanics are perfect, he's a general on the field, calls plays at the line and checks in and out of plays depending on the defese ala peyton manning, barkley also plays the chess game at the LOS, which i did not know about until recently, that kiffin gives barkley free control of the offense when they get to the line of scrimmage to call plays or change the plays. Wish barkley was a bit bigger, but he's got everything else. He can make EVERY throw that any other QB in this draft can make, he's accurate in the pocket and on the run, he's got great touch on his passes and he can rifle them in when needed. I've just watched alot of tape on him and like him alot i think he could be really special especially in a WCO that is similar to what he's run all his college career and like what reid will run.

I've read everything on geno, i've watched tons of tape of geno, and i've seen all the charts on geno's accuracy. And there is no denying the kid is accurate but again like texaschief said. He does it against VERY VERY bad defenses where his windows are huge. He has 2 all pro recievers that create alot of seperation against below par defenses, Hence geno can just sit and lock onto his #1 read and wait for them to open. He won't have that luxury in the NFL and he didn't have that luxury when facing good Defenses in college. Once those windows shrink and he has constant pressure on him he will not be the QB you guys have fallen in love with. Now can he overcome and evolve his game? I honestly don't know, my personal opinion is that he will be a mediocre QB in this league. I want our next franchise QB as bad as anyone, but i don't think geno is him, he would just be a stop gap like we have right now so why waste it on him?

I will also say that i don't like the joekel pick, i hope brandon's back is fine and we can resign him, i hope we sign bowe, and if we are curious about albert at all then just franchise him and see how he plays this year and see how the back plays out. But if there is any question at all his back becomes and issue like gaither's and he will only be a shadow of his former self then we take joekel.

My endorsement on QB would be Barkley, or Wilson. Both have played and succeeded against some of the best defenses in NCAA and both are very smart. Wilson obviously has the size and arm advantage, but barkley has the smarts and style advantage. I see wilson being a great QB, he handles pressure well, strong armed and is pretty smart with the football.
I see barkley as great to elite QB in this league. He's smart as hell, he's been groomed since a child to play this game, his mechanics are perfect, he's a general on the field, calls plays at the line and checks in and out of plays depending on the defese ala peyton manning, barkley also plays the chess game at the LOS, which i did not know about until recently, that kiffin gives barkley free control of the offense when they get to the line of scrimmage to call plays or change the plays. Wish barkley was a bit bigger, but he's got everything else. He can make EVERY throw that any other QB in this draft can make, he's accurate in the pocket and on the run, he's got great touch on his passes and he can rifle them in when needed. I've just watched alot of tape on him and like him alot i think he could be really special especially in a WCO that is similar to what he's run all his college career and like what reid will run.

I have to agree. When we look back at this QB draft class, we'll see that Barkley and Wilson will be the top 2 QBs. Although, Aaron Murray may have something to say about that if he declares.

Albert is not worth $6M MORE than Joekel. If any of Barkley, Wilson, or Murray could be available in the 2nd or for an inexpensive trade-up back into the 1st round, then I think saving the extra cash and upgrading at the LT position is a no-brainer at #1. The Browns did the same thing in '07. They "missed out" on the great JaMarcus Russell so, they went LT at #2 and then traded back into the 1st to take Quinn just before the Chiefs took Bowe.

If the Browns had the #1 pick, do you think they would've been better off with the "can't miss" JaMarcus Russell or Joe Thomas? Same thing applies to the Chiefs... except, as of right now, there isn't a "can't miss" QB prospect in this draft. The Chiefs have a tight cap situation, have questions about the future of their current LT and have the opportunity to draft a great replacement while saving $6M/yr in the process while still having an opportunity to draft one of the top 4 (interchangeable) QBs in the 2nd round.

Joekel may be just as good as albert he may not, if alberts back is 100% and no other issue yes i would rather spend 6m more for him as he is proven and a stud and already fits with our guys, he only allowed 1 sack this whole season until he got hurt. He's a beast and at the tops in this league at his position, Now i'm not saying we shouldn't look into joekel if there is any doubt in albert's back then yes we let him walk and we get joekel.

My honest scenario's is we are able to trade back into the teens and pick the QB that best fits us that is left, and we acquire another 2nd and pick up a LB and a CB in the 2nd. All this hinging on albert's back being ok though.

I know letting albert walk will save 6m against the cap but honestly for a PROVEN LT it's worth it, we can make up the 6m in other places, like letting jackson walk, restructure cassel, sign bowe instead of tag him, hillis and quinn are walking, I think we'll be okay with gray and draughn behind charles until later. Sign dorsey to a cap friendly deal.

If we don't take a Qb at #1 i hope your right and we do trade back into the 1st but like you said it would require alot!

You know the math and points of the draft better what would it take for us to move back into the teens? 20 at the highest?

I think if we pass on geno i think he goes to the raiders, and i think barkley goes to the cardinals, and wilson is the crap shoot i still think he may go before #20 though.

Matt Ryan is widely considered to be a great QB on the verge of becoming elite, which will probably happen if he beats the 49ers and makes the SB. He's been productive just about every year, just chokes in the playoffs. Much like Peyton Manning.

Even so, is there anyone feels like Jake Long, the guy who went #1 overall in 2008 would be better than Matt Ryan, who went two picks later? Miami decided to go with the veteran for short-term success, rather than the franchise guy, and where has that gotten them? Well, now they have Tannehill, but Ryan is, obviously, a sure thing.

It just boggles my mind to see people on here want to do the same thing, rather than take a potential franchise QB. Again, I know there's risk, but this team will continue to be bad-mediocre unless we get a franchise QB. A LT isn't going to change anything.

i agree that it blew up in miami's face but we can't play devil's advocate here, Atlanta has had a GREAT o-line and solid LT, who's to say ryan would go to miami and do what he has done with the falcons, he could have just been beaten to pulp behind a bad o-line, instead miami went with the LT to get the line secured, they just never stepped up and took the franchise QB until tannehill, who knows how he will turn out as he also doesn't have the weapons on the edge like ryan did/does.

I would have killed to get matt ryan and i wanted him until we lost that damn coin toss!

But the thing is, none of these QB's in this draft really compare to ryan, the only 2 that might would be wilson and bray. Wilson i don't think is as smart as ryan was, and bray is to much of a headcase. I already feel that ryan is elite, if people consider manning elite then i consider ryan elite.

We can't always just sit back and compare 2 different teams and say what if, since they have different holes and different weapons, the falcons fit ryan perfectly and they've done the perfect job getting the weapons that elavate his game to elite. Miami did a good thing with Long but they didn't build on that, they switched coach after coach and just screwed it all up.