Vincenzo Nibali wins Tirreno-Adriatico

Vincenzo Nibali closed out the Tirreno-Adriatico win by overtaking not just one but two riders in the GC classification in the final Time Trial of the race. Both Chris Horner and Roman Kreuziger put in average performances in the short TT to fall to Nibali who set a very strong time.

Have we seen the winners of this year’s Giro and Tour showing their form already? Wiggins and Nibali? I hear many asking this question. Wait, Not so fast. It’s not common that the winner of Paris-Nice goes on to win the Tour. The last rider to do it was Alberto Contador (2007, 2010*) and before that Eddy Merckx (1969,’70,’71). However, many who have won Paris-Nice (Zeotemelk, Indurain, Roche, for example) won the Tour near the time they won Paris-Nice. Jacques Anquetil won Paris-Nice 5 times and the Tour five times and three of each came in the same year. Floyd Landis also did it in 2006, but his results were stripped.

Tirreno-Adriatico is even less likely. Never has the winner of Tirreno-Adriatico gone on to win the Giro. The closest it has ever come to happening is when Giuseppe Saronni won Tirreno-Adriatico in 1978 and then went on to win the Giro D’Italia in 1979. Even that is a dubious association because the full year of difference would have likely meant a different form, and possibly different objectives for Saronni.

Both Wiggins and Nibali are going to be top protagonists for their respective target Grand Tour, but the likelihood that it will be them who wins, is not a strong one.