Sky Views: Catalans want Brexit-style vote

Michelle Clifford, Europe Correspondent

So we've learned Carles Puigdemont is not going back to Catalonia to fight in the election which was brought about as a direct result of his drive for independence.

He is still in Brussels where he fled with other ousted government ministers back at the end of October and today we may see him joining thousands who have travelled from Catalonia to protest against the continued imprisonment of separatist leaders.

Image:Carles Puigdemont addresses the party faithful via video link

Several are in Madrid jails facing charges including rebellion and sedition.

Mr Puigdemont himself has avoided a night in the cells by leaving for Belgium days after he declared independence.

This week a Spanish judge lifted the European Arrest Warrant which had been issued to have him and the other ministers still able to enjoy moules frites extradited back to Spain.

It takes the Belgian legal system out of the process but if Mr Puigdemont returns to Catalonia he will almost certainly be arrested for the alleged offences which still stand.

Video:How important is Catalonia to Spain?

So it's hardly surprising that for now his calculation is staying put.

He argues that from Brussels he can continue to promote the independence cause to an international audience. But he will fight December's election from afar.

Videos, press conferences and TV appearances will be used as proxies for street-to-street campaigning.

The question is, will he accept the result of that election if it doesn't go his way? If the election delivers a mandate to parties which oppose independence?

I asked him that this week at a press conference where he appeared with his ministers who have joined him in self-imposed exile.

He told me he would accept the result of any election which took place in "normal circumstances" but questioned how the election in two weeks' time could be deemed normal or fair when independence figures are incarcerated and unable to properly campaign.

'You got it with Brexit and Scotland' independence supporters kept telling me in Catalonia about having a binding referendum. 'Why shouldn’t we have it?'Michelle Clifford, Europe Correspondent

Now he has a point but one might equally argue that Spain's imprisonment of key independence figures has acted as a potent tool for the independence movement.

In the many weeks I spent there, I heard plenty of evidence of opinion being cemented for the separatist cause by the perceived heavy hand of the Madrid government.

And there was evidence too of opinion being swayed from anti to pro-independence by the visibly heavy hands of the national police on referendum day as they tried to stop the voting taking place. The first of October was a PR disaster for Madrid.

Video:Voices of Catalonia on independence

It's impossible to know how much the police action and Madrid's strong response against the independence government will drive the vote for separatist parties up (or the flight of business since the yes vote will push voters in the opposite direction).

But it will certainly be a factor and one would assume that if the independence cause triumphs then Mr Puigdemont will have no problem accepting the outcome.

Perhaps the bigger question is whether the man who imposed the election on Catalonia as he took direct control of a region he believed had gone rogue will fully accept a result he does not want.

Spain's Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy made a political calculation calling the regional election which he hopes will deliver a government which supports Spanish unity.

Over 90% of voters in the independence referendum backed separating from Spain but only around 40% voted. Those who opposed independence simply stayed away from a referendum declared illegal.

Image:Tensions continue to grow with ousted the Catalan leader in Brussels

In an election, Mr Rajoy is assuming, everyone will come out to vote. Anti-independence parties will actually campaign.

Mr Rajoy is banking on the maths going in his favour and the two sides are neck and neck. It is regional election yes, but an independence referendum in all but name. But if the figures don't stack up, what then?

If separatist parties triumph and deliver a government then isn't it time for Prime Minister Rajoy to allow for a legal referendum on Catalonia independence? To properly test and fight the arguments about the pros and cons of secession.

Test the claims that too much money is going from one of Spain's wealthiest regions to the centre.

Test the arguments that Catalonia cannot survive economically away from Spain. Constitutional change would be needed but that is possible.

And wouldn't it put the matter to rest in a manner both sides would be forced to accept?

"You got it with Brexit and Scotland" independence supporters kept telling me in Catalonia about having a binding referendum. "Why shouldn't we have it?"