UAC wrote:Overnight we had PERFECT weather for near surface faceting; clear skies, light winds and cold temperatures. Just what we needed to jump start the metamorphism of the newest snow into junk just like the rest of our snowpack.

amd

UAC wrote:The long term outlook continues to look bad. Looking at the 500mb level of the GFS model I see four more splitting systems to come through Dec 27th. As it looks now, the best we can hope for is minor dustings out of these. Constructive metamorphism will continue!

From Brett Anderson at AccuWeather:...I can easily see an onslaught of a half dozen storms and fronts over the next ten days for western BC and the Pacific Northwest coast/mtns. Ski areas across western Canada should see plenty of the white stuff, despite the milder temps over the next 10 days. After that, I am still holding on to the idea that a significant pattern change will take place around the second week of January (partly result of significant stratospheric warming), which may send the very cold over the NW part of North America down into western Canada.

.A TWO PART STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING SUBSTANTIAL SNOWFALL TO THENORTHERN MOUNTAINS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THEFIRST PART OF THE STORM HAS ALREADY PRODUCED HEAVY SNOWFALL ALONGTHE WASATCH RANGE. THE SECOND COLDER PORTION OF THE STORM WILLBRING ADDITIONAL SNOW TO ALL OF THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS THROUGHSATURDAY AFTERNOON.

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SALT LAKE CITY HAS ISSUED AWINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PMMST THIS AFTERNOON.

* AFFECTED AREA: THE WASATCH MOUNTAINS AND THE WESTERN UINTA MOUNTAINS OF NORTHERN UTAH.

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS: ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES WITH LOCAL ACCUMULATIONS NEAR 12 INCHES.

* TIMING: PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE WASATCH RANGE THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THIS SNOW WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SNOW WILL REACH THE WESTERN UINTA RANGE LATE TONIGHT...AND REMAIN HEAVY AT TIME THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

* IMPACTS: ROADWAYS THROUGH THE WASATCH RANGE WILL BECOME SNOW PACKED OVERNIGHT...AND REMAIN SNOW PACKED OR SLUSHY THROUGH SATURDAY. SNOW PACKED ROADWAYS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE FEW REMAINING OPEN ROADWAYS IN THE UINTA SATURDAY.

It started sooner than normal, and there's already an inch or so at the house. It's going to be a fun weekend finally.

But of course, high pressure is set to return this week. Maybe because this was bigger it will break down the high pressure a bit more?

I'm not sure where that Snowbird data is coming from. I don't think 1994 and 1999 were quite as low as this year. But when you're at ~60% of normal snowfall on January 7 it's going to take a spectacular back end of the season to get to 100%. Rather than look at what happened in a couple of low seasons, I would suggest looking at the whole dataset of January and later snowfall and see how many of them had at least (season average - Nov/Dec 2011). Alta's average is 534 inches, Nov/Dec 2011 was 96, so it needs 438 after Jan. 1 to reach average. 6 out of 43 seasons had that much snow after Jan. 1.

Fortunately LCC does not need an average season to have quality skiing. 2006-07 had 71% of normal snow and still had 15 "A" weeks and another 11 "B"s by my scale. That's about equal to an average season at Mammoth or Whistler and well above average for anyplace in Colorado.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE GREAT BASIN THIS WEEKEND...WITH MODELS HINTING AT A PATTERN CHANGE EARLY NEXT WEEK. BOTH THE GFS AND THE EC SHOW MOIST WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE PATTERN DEPICTED IN THE EC IS MORE FAVORABLE FOR THE CWA WITH THE JET STREAM CLOSER TO THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...THE 12Z GFS MOVED SLIGHTLY TOWARDS THE EC...GIVING SOME HOPE THAT THERE WILL BE A SHIFT TO A PATTERN MORE FAVORABLE FOR THE FORECAST AREA.

If this were to happen, that being the pattern change, I swear to God it better not happen while Sundance is going on. Two, 115 Hour work weeks leaves me no time to ski. At this point who gives a [censored], I'll just quit my job!

mbaydala wrote:If this were to happen, that being the pattern change, I swear to God it better not happen while Sundance is going on. Two, 115 Hour work weeks leaves me no time to ski. At this point who gives a [censored], I'll just quit my job!

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