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November 14, 2006

6 Billion Yen

-would be "shocked" if deal didn't get done-sox want 5 years, boras wants 3-"he's the best pitcher on the market, youngest pitcher on market"-red sox can market, "sell all their games in japan"-theo did a lot consulting w japanese teams-thinks 30-40% of the great players in world will be coming out of asia-sox feel very strongly "he's the best pitcher on market"-thinks biggest adjustment will be his pitching every 5th day, instead of once a week-think they may use 6 starters here and there-DM sometimes throws "200 pitches day before start to warm up"-In WBC, everyone was notedly impressed by his control of all pitches-Thinks Sox will get another starter to build up depth-Thinks Yankees aren't worried about "responding," Cashman too smart-Hopeful about Pavano coming back, throwing 200 IP-MFY aren't in love with Zito-Loves their two trades-Sees Hughes in rotation in July-Cashman wants to get younger-Thinks Sox/Yankees are beyond the "arms race" in offseason

SoSHer ragecage:

Minor point, but I just caught the replay of the Gammons interview. When I first read your point about Theo's consulting, I took it to be in regards to the posting bid (I probably just mis-interpreted), but when I listened again he mentioned the consulting in regards to two Japanese teams Theo consulted with last Fall/Winter, when he was away from the RS. When you look at it from that perspective, you get an idea of how long this has been brewing in the RS FO (if not even much longer as some have suggested). Without having details, when you add this all up, you get the sense that this was a long time coming, and they wanted to leave nothing to chance.

And geoduck no quahog:

What is it about JWH's money compartments that some people don't understand?

If Henry wanted to buy the John Hancock Building with $50M leverage, would some be complaining about the impact on Red Sox financials?

The posting bid is a sunk cost based on a return-on-investment related to Asian marketing and relationship issues. It has nothing to do with Red Sox payroll. It's a cost that was calculated outside of payroll based on smart people's assessments of potential return.

I have yet to hear or read any impact of the posting on the Red Sox' intention to maintain (or increase) payroll. Complain about Matsuzaka's "cost" after the contract is negotiated.

tywebb444:

For those of you who aren't pleased with the amount of money or with Matsuzaka himself, would you have been happier with a 5 year 80 million offer for Zito? Personally I'd rather take the 26 yr old, with 4+ pitches and who lets us put our foot in the Japanese market. Oh yeah and a ton of potential to boot. Of course it's a risky move for the money and the fact that he hasn't pitched in the majors, but none of the options out there are better for us.

drleather2001:

First of all, the Japanese Leagues are at LEAST comparable to AAA, I believe. And this guy has been tearing the shit out of the Japanese League for several years. He's as close to a sure thing as anyone is going to get coming from out there, so saying he hasn't proven anything is a little unfair, don't you think? You can only win the games you're allowed to play in, after all.

I know not every Red Sox fan is head over heels about this deal, but how can you say this is not FUN? This winter will not be dull.

11 comments:

1. To me, hitting other teams over the head with your checkbook isn't "fun." Fun is trades. Fun is finding a David Ortiz or Tim Wakefield on the scrap heap. Fun is watching a home grown rookie like Papelbon step up.2. 200 pitches the day before a start? This was the crap that blew out Kim's arm, wasn't it? And our new star has only pitched once every seven days? That should cause some alarm bells to go off. But hey, it's only 50 million...3. Theo consulting with Japanese teams and then over-bidding on negotiation rights raises at least a question about a conflict of interest.

4. To paraphrase the punch-line of the Mastercard commercials:"Watching Sox fans who cursed the Yankees for "buying championships" go into raptures over this obscene deal: priceless!"

1. It sure sounds like any merchandising and broadcasting revenue to come from this deal will be split among all the teams, as I suspected. So the supposed financial bonanza for the Sox alluded to in previous posts is just not going to be there.2. Does anyone else find this his sentence from Bob Ryan's column a bit peculiar, not to mention unappetizing? To wit...

"Pressure on a Japanese player who will have his every bowel movement scrutinized by a ravenous Japanese press corps will be unimaginable."

To me, hitting other teams over the head with your checkbook isn't "fun." ... To paraphrase the punch-line of the Mastercard commercials:"Watching Sox fans who cursed the Yankees for "buying championships" go into raptures over this obscene deal: priceless!"

Almost ten years ago, the Red Sox dropped $75 million (and two of our top pitching prospects) for another 26-year-old pitcher who was good, but had only one super-duper ace season.

I don't remember that being called "obscene" in too many circles -- and Pedro did bring us a championship, and I don't think that many fans felt we "bought" it.

Of course, DM will likely not come to Boston and put up the greatest seasons ever thrown by a pitcher like Pedro did, but the point is the Red Sox have $ and they spend $.

And the up side dwarfs the down side...this is an all around great business deal. The $51.1 million? Already in the profits for next year for the business called the Red Sox. And the rotation..way better. Right? And the Boras dealings? No other teams. No other agenda. Two camps that want the deal done. Welcome to part one of 2007. AND SMILE. I am

Jack, I guess you wouldn't have much fun at a silent auction. Sox were forced to 'overbid' cuz they had no idea what Yanks would come in at, and quite rightly, feared the worst. I think it's fun that rather than piss and moan about being outbid by the Evil Empire yet again, we can eagerly look forward to a winter of more good player moves. All the stories point to the Sox having stalked Dice-K for awhile--I'd be shocked if they suddenly went cheap. Fun to me is winning, Jack. There is extra fun here cuz a Sox failure on the field will be accompanied by world-wide laughter. And like I said earlier, you're never going to know whose pockets the posting fee comes out of, or how many pockets ALL of the future Japanese business deals go into. Let the signings begin.

Redsock: Pedro was obtained via trade, which qualifies as "fun." He was also a proven commodity and as certain to be an ace as anyone can be. All the money went into his salary, and by god, he earned it. There was an obscene aspect to it...the Sox participation in the denuding and destruction of the Montreal Expos, but that was mostly the fault their ownership and MLB. Still, I could imagine what an Expo fan would feel like losing Pedro, and it must have hurt.

When a team pays the going rate in salary for a future Hall of Famer, that's baseball. When a team pays 51 million to simply have negotiations, that's using their superior money as a tactical weapon. I hate it when big corporations do that to grind down individual litigants in lawsuits; I hate it when big companies drive small ones out of business by pricing below market because they can afford it, and I hate it when my team uses its enhanced risk-tolerance ratio to take big money gambles their competitors simply cannot afford to take.

You don't like "obscene?" OK...let's just say that it makes me sick to my stomach, like finding out that the idealistic kid you admired in law school went to work for Enron.

"For when the One Great Scorer Comes To write against your name, He marks - not that you won or lost, But how you played the Game."

I concur with Grantland Rice. If I thought all that mattered was winning, I'd have been a Yankee fan long ago. The most fun World Series I ever saw was in 1975 , when the Sox lost in heroic fashion to a superior team. (I liked the ending of the 2004 Seies better, though.)

Woti: You know who makes a silent auction no fun at all? A billionaire who just writes a huge number nobody else can afford on the bidding sheet for every item. You know who ruins poker games? The guy so rich that you can't bluff him out, and he'll always pay to try an inside straight. You know who ruins youth football? The guy who pays for everything from helmets to coaches and then dicatates what position his son will play.

Jack, if Rice's doggrel and merely the idea of "playing the game right" is what matters, then almost any cheap-ass baseball owner should satisfy you.

You know JWH et al. are making gobs of money off Fenway and the Red Sox. And they are putting it back into improving the team.

Would you rather Henry stash those extra millions in his wallet while keeping Jason Johnson or Sexy Lips as our #5? Not me.

Call this an MFY move if you must, but those are the rules as set out by MLB and the Red Sox played fair.

And you can take an estimated (and sizeable) $120 million Red Sox payroll, toss in the $51 million bid for DM and his 2007 salary (say $12 million) -- and STILL not match a $200 MFY payroll.

It is obvious that the team had been scouting DM for at least 3-4 years with this day/week in mind. Maybe that's one reason why they did not want to overpay for Pedro -- a wise decision in hindsight (though who knows if he would have been similarly injuried in Boston) -- and said Bye Bye Johnny (also a wise move).

In 2007, we will have three starters age 26 or younger -- Beckett, Papelbon and the Dice Man. When Lester returns, we'll have four.

If the Sox have been looking at Matsuzaka for so long, why didn't they pick him up for a much lower price than $51.1 before the WBC brought him to the attention of other major league teams? From what I understand, this bidding process is the result of a previously standing agreement between MLB and the Japanese leagues to keep American teams from stealing away all of the young Japanese talent. Is this the first year Matsuzaka is elligible under this rule?

For the nay-sayers who think this is "obscene," this is just an example of capitalism at its best. What's worse than a silent auction with a billionaire? How about being that billionaire and finding out your most coveted prize was lost to another rich man in the room?

So what is the risk associated with the $51.1? Zip. Zero. Nada. This sunk cost will be made back with gained revenues in the East. The real risk the Sox take will be what they agree to pay an unproven arm (and I've heard everything between $10 to $19 million per). The Sox made an investment in their future that they think will have greater returns than what they put into it.