Ching: Star power definitely lacking

Posted: Thursday, February 04, 2010

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After wading through the painful trifecta of an 8-5 record, a gutting of his defensive coaching staff and a lengthy search for the departed coaches' replacements, Georgia coach Mark Richt knew his program could take a step backward on national signing day.

He admitted as much on Wednesday afternoon after the last fax crossed the machine at the football offices in Butts-Mehre Heritage Hall. Richt considers it collateral damage for taking the steps necessary to get the program back on the right track.

So despite suffering a handful of late defections that left Georgia with a lower recruiting ranking than its typical lofty position, Richt put on his best grin and extolled the virtues of a signing class that slipped in prestige over the last few days.

However, his reassurances do little to ease the short-term angst of the many Bulldogs fans who have come to expect more on signing day.

Make no mistake, Georgia signed some extremely talented players on Wednesday and filled some areas of desperate need, particularly on the defensive front.

But it's also a group that lacks star power at the skill positions, especially after Calhoun receiver Da'Rick Rogers - the state's top prospect according to evaluators at Scout.com and Rivals.com - switched his commitment from Georgia to Tennessee.

There's no way around it. That was a huge miss for Georgia - not just because Rogers is roundly rated as one of the nation's elite players at his position, but because receiver was an area of need for the Bulldogs.

Richt's staff would like to have around seven dependable receivers. They have all of three returning who made at least 10 catches last season. Four if you count senior Kris Durham, who missed last season with injury, but caught 13 balls in 2008. Five if you count Orson Charles, a fine pass-catching tight end who can easily split out wide like a receiver.

A.J. Green's presence in the rotation helps ease some depth concerns since he might be the top receiver in the country. But Georgia could have major problems if one of the key receivers suffers an injury - problems an elite talent like Da'Rick Rogers could have easily helped alleviate.

There is absolutely no shame in a top-20 recruiting class, which is generally where this bunch ranks. As of Wednesday evening, Rivals rated Georgia's class as the 16th-best in the country, while Scout had the Bulldogs just a shade back at No. 21.

When you perennially rank in the top 10, however, the perception becomes that you're moving in the wrong direction. Particularly after disappointing on-field results in the last two years. And especially when five or six teams from your own conference rank higher on the list than you do.

Georgia recruiting coordinator Rodney Garner said Wednesday that he doesn't put much stock in recruiting rankings. And if you're a Georgia fan, that's exactly what you should want to hear. You want to believe the coaches have a nose for talent and don't need some online recruiting service to tell them which players to pursue.

But those rankings serve as a reliable guideline for us novices who don't watch every prospect perform on film or in person.

It's a matter of simple math. A five-star recruit is 10 times more likely to become an all-American than the average for all players. A four-star recruit is nearly three times more likely to become an all-American than the average for all players.

Every recruiting naysayer loves to cite exceptions like David Pollack, Thomas Davis or Tim Jennings - none of whom were super prospects when they signed with Georgia - but these are obvious statistical trends.

Most players named to an all-America team play for winning programs, so there is a clear correlation between success on the recruiting trail and success on the field.

Is recruiting methodology inexact? Of course. But it's a good measuring stick - and it indicates that Georgia came up a bit short this season.

The sky most certainly hasn't fallen. With an improved on-field product this fall, there's no reason to doubt Georgia will return to its typical place among the top 10 recruiting programs.

But Georgia was an 8-5 team that finished in the middle of the pack in last season's Southeastern Conference standings - and the Bulldogs just signed a recruiting class of similar quality.