Analyzing John Farrell's managerial decisions on Opening Day

BALTIMORE -- After six long weeks of spring training, one of the strange and enjoyable discoveries of opening day is that things matter.

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By
TIM BRITTON
Posted Apr. 1, 2014 @ 8:30 am

BALTIMORE -- After six long weeks of spring training, one of the strange and enjoyable discoveries of opening day is that things matter. Second-inning sequencing matters. Taking the extra base matters. Making the right personnel move matters.

In that regard, Monday's 2-1 Red Sox loss to the Orioles included a number of intriguing decisions thrown John Farrell's way out of the gate. Let's dissect a few of the debatable moves and non-moves he made in the final innings to get even more of a read on Boston's second-year manager.

Top of the Sixth, Runner on Second, One Out, Tied 1-1

The Decision: Allowing A.J. Pierzynski to hit for himself against Zach Britton

The Alternative: Pinch-hitting Jonny Gomes or David Ross for Pierzynski

The Analysis: Pierzynski entered the plate appearance 1-for-6 lifetime against Britton, and he's done much better against righties than lefties in his career.

The Result: Pierzynski grounded out to third on a chopper.

The Final Verdict: Too early to make that move. Even with nobody warming in the Baltimore bullpen — ensuring your righty would face the lefty Britton — it's too early to pull an everyday player on opening day, and the situation didn’t totally warrant it.

Bottom of the Seventh, Nobody On, Nobody Out, Tied 1-1

The Decision: Leaving Jon Lester in to pitch

The Alternative: Bringing in a right-handed reliever, most likely Junichi Tazawa

The Analysis: Lester was at 92 pitches through six, and he had retired nine of the last 10 men he faced; he looked as strong as he had all day. But the Orioles were bringing up Nelson Cruz (with a very good career track record against Lester), Matt Wieters (who hits considerably better from the right side), and Delmon Young (a platoon starter).

The Result: Lester allowed the tie-breaking solo home run to Cruz.

The Final Verdict: You're not going to believe me when I say this, but I was about to tweet that sticking with Lester in the seventh showed Farrell's faith in his starter over the platoon numbers that a pitcher such as Tazawa could have exploited in the inning. (Tweeting that immediately after the Cruz homer, like saying it now, strains credulity.) That said, one can't fault Farrell for going with his ace at only 92 pitches — even on Opening Day — into a seventh inning. He did something similar in Game Five of the World Series when he didn’t pinch-hit for Lester, and it paid off. Criticizing him for this move would be the height of Monday morning quarterbacking.

Top of the Eighth, Runner on Second, One Out, Orioles 2-1

The Decision: Pinch-running Jackie Bradley, Jr. for Mike Napoli

The Alternative: Not pinch-running

The Analysis: The runner on second represented the important tying run with five outs to go for Boston, and the bottom of the order due up. Bradley ostensibly gave the Red Sox a better chance to score from second on a single. However, Napoli scored from second 70 percent of the time on singles last season and 65.7 percent in his career, both above the league average of 58.9 percent in 2013. (Bradley was weirdly 2-for-5 on scoring from second on singles, though let's chalk that up to small sample size.) Farrell said one of the reasons he felt confident subbing in Bradley for Napoli was that a potential ninth-inning plate appearance for the outfielder would come against Tommy Hunter, who shuts down righties and is feasted upon by lefties.

The Result: Bradley didn’t advance past second, and he struck out looking to end the game in Napoli's spot.

The Final Verdict: I will admit upfront that I am more opposed to pinch-running than most. I think there are very few, very specific times to pinch-run, and that this was not one of them. (I like pinch-running with no outs and with a runner who can steal a base.) The advantage gained by pinch-running Bradley was minimal; there are very few singles that would score Bradley from second but not Napoli. That advantage is certainly outweighed by the removal of Napoli from the game, even if his later plate appearance would come against the righty-killing Hunter.

Top of the Eighth, Runners on First and Second, Two Outs, Orioles 2-1

The Decision: Not pinch-hitting for Pierzynski with Brian Matusz on the mound

The Alternative: Pinch-hitting Gomes or Ross

The Analysis: In honor of the NCAA Tournament, let's do blind résumés.

Player A

Player B

Player C

Lifetime v. LHP

.277/.377/.502

.261/.291/.384

.246/.325/.442

2013 v. LHP

.236/.347/.447

.279/.318/.400

.259/.322/.481

Career v. Matusz

1-for-3, HR

2-for-8

0-for-1

Sure, you like Player A's on-base percentage in this spot, but remember, you're looking as much for average here as anything else; the tying run was on second. The line between Player A -- whom you should be able to surmise is Gomes -- and Player B (Pierzynski) isn't as stark as you might expect.

The Result: Pierzynski grounded weakly to the pitcher.

The Final Verdict: You're probably angry with that "analysis" above, pointing out (rightly) that the focus shouldn't be too much on average and that avoiding an out there is the key and that the power differential should play a part since taking the lead is even better than just tying the game. In a vacuum, if this is a postseason game, Farrell almost certainly pinch-hits Gomes for Pierzynski there. But it's not a postseason game. It's opening day, and there's some worth in showing faith in the guy you expect to catch upwards of 100 games this year -- even if that worth wasn't tangible Monday.

Top of the Ninth, Runners on First and Second, Two Outs, Orioles 2-1

The Decision: Not pinch-hitting for Bradley with Tommy Hunter on the mound

The Alternative: Pinch-hitting Gomes

The Analysis: Hunter has long been tougher on righties than lefties, and he took that to a new level in his first full season as a reliever in 2013. Righties hit .141/.190/.154 off him. Here's the list of pitchers who did better than that in 50+ innings last season (Hunter threw 86 1/3):____. That's right. Nobody. Lefties meanwhile hit .292/.322/.535 off Hunter in 2013. And the same list as before, now calibrated to lefties, would include 291 names.

The Result: Bradley struck out looking.

The Final Verdict: There are pitchers with reverse splits who would tempt Farrell to pinch-hit for Bradley. There are pitchers with minimal splits who might tempt Farrell there. Tommy Hunter, perhaps more than any other pitcher in baseball, limits the temptation to bring Gomes into that spot. One could argue that Gomes is better-suited to any critical ninth-inning plate appearance, regardless of the platoon numbers, than Bradley. But then the rebuttal is that there's still value in showing faith on Day One, and that Bradley figures to play a prominent role on this team this year and beyond. If you pinch-hit for him there, you're saying there's virtually no critical ninth-inning spot in which you wouldn't.