Campaign 2012: When an incumbent Democratic president is virtually tied in a congressional district he carried by high double digits in 2008, and is losing in the suburbs of his hometown, there could be trouble brewing.

In August, a poll by the Joliet, Ill.-based polling firm of McKeon and Associates, found President Obama leading challenger Mitt Romney in Cook County, which includes Chicago and its suburbs, by a 12-point margin 49-37.

That would seem to be a comfortable edge, but it is significantly smaller than traditional margins needed to outweigh the more Republican downstate vote.

"He has to come out of Cook County with a big lead or he's gonna have problems downstate," explained McKeon, who said that based on the numbers he's seen, Obama polled only in the 40s in downstate Illinois.

If his poll, which surveyed 629 registered voters and had a margin of error of plus/minus 3.4%, is accurate, Obama would be in some trouble.

In the city of Chicago itself, McKeon found Obama with a 60-29 lead over Romney. But Romney led 45-38 in the surrounding areas. Across the county as a whole, Romney led 43-31 among independent voters and held a 44-38 lead among male voters.

McKeon noted that in the 2010 gubernatorial race Republican Bill Brady came within a single percentage point of now-Gov. Pat Quinn because Brady won most of the downstate counties that have traditionally resisted and resented being dominated by upstate Chicago politicians.

No, we are angry with him because he is an incompetent boob who is doing all he can to destroy this country and we are ashamed to be associated with him and Chicago (or as we sometimes say downstate, Sh..cago. Fill in the blanks).
On another point, the only counties that Pat Quinn (D) carried were Cook and Washington. The first is, of course, Chicago and the other is East St. Louis. So most of the people in the larger landmass of Illinois are not as stupid as our neighbors to the north and southwest.

Short answer : no. It’s not that it’s his home state (although that does help him in Chicagoland)—it’s just too Democrat a state right now. President Bush got only 44.5% in 2004 (while he was getting 50.7% nationally), and Kerry’s victory margin in IL was higher than in WA, NJ, HI, ME, DE or even CA.

Anything is possible until the end. We should aim for a Reagenesque knockout of Obama — 0 electoral votes. I know it sounds impossible, but lets aim for the sky. At the worst we’ll reach the top of the tree

20
posted on 10/06/2012 2:39:03 PM PDT
by Cronos
(**Marriage is about commitment, cohabitation is about convenience.**)

Outside of Cook County (i.e., Chicago and a handful of collar communities) and downstate Madison and St. Clair Counties. Illinois is moderate to conservative. The reason Illinois is so bankrupt and corrupt is because Cook County dominates the state.

25
posted on 10/06/2012 2:42:03 PM PDT
by ought-six
( Multiculturalism is national suicide, and political correctness is the cyanide capsule.)

It all depends on voter turnout in Chicago. Overall democrat turnout may well be down. Many are dissatisfied with Obama, even in the Black community. If they still turn out, he’ll get Illinois, if their numbers are down it could turn into a GOP win, but it would be very close.

Yes it will be, and just think of all the testicle transplant doctors offices full of Republican officeholders if it happens. Be proactive, buy stock in sex change doctors, you stand to make a killing if Romney wins.

1) Chicago Tribune Sept 26th: “With two weeks left to register to vote, the number of people on Chicagos voting rolls is about 225,000 less than it was by the time registration closed four years ago, election officials said today.”
2) Obama campaign officials threatened an NAACP official who is not backing Obama and he referred this to the police
3) Kevin DuJan of Hillbuzz lives in Chicago and says black pastors have been telling congregations to stay home and not vote. They are angry at Obama’s same-sex marriage policy and amnesty to illegals.

“So most of the people in the larger landmass of Illinois are not as stupid as our neighbors to the north and southwest.”

It’s that way in Wisconsin, too. I live right outside of ‘The People’s Republik of Madistan.’ You know how THEY are, LOL! The rest of my state? The people are CONSERVATIVE and hard working and gun-toting and Bible-clinging and basically ...supporting the D*CKHEADS in Madistan and Milwaukeestan.

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