A handful of swing-state Democrats hold the cards when it comes to blocking the Obama administration’s climate change policies.

At least 56 senators next year are likely to support efforts to block the Environmental Protection Agency’s plans to regulate greenhouse gas emissions, a POLITICO analysis shows. That’s just short of the 60 they’d need to overcome a filibuster, but a slew of moderate Democrats facing reelection in 2012 could put that number within reach.

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Democratic senators including Sherrod Brown of Ohio, Bob Casey of Pennsylvania, Debbie Stabenow of Michigan and Jon Tester of Montana haven’t supported past efforts to stall climate rules, but they could change their minds with an eye on their 2012 races.

The GOP won gubernatorial races in Michigan, Ohio and Pennsylvania and flipped a dozen Democratic House seats last week.

“If you were Casey and Brown, I think you’d be thinking this would be something you’d have to look at,” said Ohio Coal Association President Mike Carey. “We are going to make sure that Ohioans understand how devastating this type of regulation … would be to their pocketbooks.”

Tester, a first-term Democrat from a state that backed Republican presidential candidate John McCain in 2008, could also be an easy pickup.

In June, a Senate resolution that would have essentially blocked the EPA's global warming rules failed, 47-53. The measure's sponsor, Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska), promised to try again if she wins her write-in reelection vote.

"We must first pre-empt the EPA from meddling in the work of Congress when it comes to setting climate policies," Murkowski said in a statement last week.

Although Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.) earlier this year promised moderate Democrats a vote on a measure to block EPA's greenhouse gas rules for two years, EPA foes are unlikely to get a chance during the lame duck to take such a vote. Besides, they'll have broader support if they wait until January.

“If the question does get called, those who want to put the brakes on the EPA have a much better vote count,” said Eric Ueland, who was chief of staff to former Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist (R-Tenn.).

Of the 53 senators who endorsed previous efforts to block or delay climate regulations, the 22 who were up for reelection this year either retained their seats or will be replaced by lawmakers expected to similarly support such measures.

At least three Senate seats flipped from climate rule defenders to newcomers who will likely be eager to block EPA regulations. Democrats Russ Feingold of Wisconsin and Arlen Specter of Pennsylvania will be replaced by Republicans Ron Johnson and Pat Toomey, respectively, both of whom have opposed measures to curb greenhouse gas emissions. Former Rep. Mark Kirk (R-Ill.) — who’s taking Democrat Roland Burris’s Illinois Senate seat — voted for the cap-and-trade bill that passed the House last year but quickly said he would vote against the bill in the Senate.

Readers' Comments (41)

We don't want cap and trade. We don't want that so-called health care "reform" bill. We don't want the government taking over private business. We don't want bail-outs. We don't want confiscatory taxes. We don't want crushing debt. We don't want more government.

If Senators of both parties haven't heard and understood that message yet, we stand ready to repeat it in two years. What the Republicans need to do in the meantime is to force votes in Congress on repealing all these measues. They need to make Obama and his Democratic enablers take a stand either for or against these unpopular, undemocratic measures. And like their votes on the highly unpopular health care bill, these votes will come back to haunt them in the elections of 2012.

Republicans can no longer allow Democrats to run as conservatives and govern as a rubber-stamp socialist Congress following without question the orders of the Obama, the Socialist-in-chief.

Casey, who along with Durbin are trying to bailout the union's underfunded pensions with a bill which will not play with taxpayers, and the other Democrats mentioned in the article are on thin ice with the voters in the 2012 elections. Most would suggest they lie low or they all will go. They all voted for Obama's agendas, and that could cost them dearly.

While the EPA and various government agencies CAN make new regulations that hobble our economy and directly raise the costs of energy there is one thing that's missing from your article. Congress, and specifically, the House of Representatives, has the final say on funding for these agencies. IF the EPA does pass some sort of "climate change" regulations, we may get to see just how altruistic the people who work in those agencies are...one of the possible ways that's being discussed to hobble these agencies would be...just to not appropriate funds for them to operate. Then those bureaucrats would get to really work for America...for free.

This is another wreckless article by Politico. As usual they look at how this argument plays out politically, but they totally ignore what a huge job killer EPA regulation would be. the effect on our economy would be disasterous. They did the same with the healthcare bill, there was almost no analysis done on the effect the bill would have on the economy. How stupid can the left be. They try and convince people they want to improve the economy when their signatures bills do nothing but make it worse. They will never learn their lesson on this, because most are either openly or closet socialists who just pretend to care about the economy, but are really for more and more big government overreach. If this country is to have any future Obama and the democrats need to be exterminated in 2012. their ideas are worse than cancer.

This is another wreckless article by Politico. As usual they look at how this argument plays out politically, but they totally ignore what a huge job killer EPA regulation would be. the effect on our economy would be disasterous. They did the same with the healthcare bill, there was almost no analysis done on the effect the bill would have on the economy. How stupid can the left be. They try and convince people they want to improve the economy when their signatures bills do nothing but make it worse. They will never learn their lesson on this, because most are either openly or closet socialists who just pretend to care about the economy, but are really for more and more big government overreach. If this country is to have any future Obama and the democrats need to be exterminated in 2012. their ideas are worse than cancer.

I guess they haven't learned a lesson yet. But I also think that they and too many of their lib friends are heavily invested in green energy that is why they are in favor of this proven hoax. Always follow the money and you will get the answer!

The next Congress needs to slash the EPA budget in half. We can't afford this nonsense.

Cut it by half? How about cut the whole thing...and Dept of Education, Energy (which was instituted by Nixon to wean America from foreign sorces of oil...how's THAT working out?), Homeland Security (isn't this what Dept of Defense is supposed to do?) and any number of other useless jobs/employment agencies that actually do nothing but waste money.

Unless the 23 Democratic Senators up for reelection in 2012 are in the bluest of blue states, they better back the stopping of the EPA implementing any cap and trade regulations. Otherwise they will be history. That will include all states not located in the northwest coastline and the northeastern states. By my count that includes 13 Democratic Senators in Class I.