Tuning In: Patriots could blow any way in NFL Draft

Mike Mayock gets paid to predict how the NFL Draft will go, but the NFL Network analyst knows that when it comes to the Patriots' first-round pick, his mock draft risks being mocked.

"As you know with Bill," Mayock said of New England coach Bill Belichick during a conference call with the media, "you never know what's going to happen except for the fact he's probably going to move down and around."

If the Patriots keep the 29th pick in the opening round — and that's a big if — Mayock believes they could go one of two ways: select a defensive lineman to complement Vince Wilfork and Tommy Kelly, both of whom are coming off injuries, or draft a tight end.

"A guy like Jace Amaro from Texas Tech," Mayock said, "who I have a second-round grade on, kind of gives them another option at tight end with (Rob) Gronkowski. I find that intriguing, kind of playing that (Aaron) Hernandez role."

The 6-foot-5, 265-pound Amaro has the size of a tight end, but not the strength or power. So he lined up as an inside receiver much of the time last fall and had 106 catches for 1,352 yards and seven touchdowns. Those kinds of numbers would fill in in nicely for Hernandez, who is in jail on murder charges.

Unfortunately, Amaro's background includes a couple of red flags. He was arrested as a freshman for credit card fraud, but the charges eventually were dropped, and he was ejected from the Meineke Car Care Bowl as a junior for throwing a punch.

Mayock also believes the Patriots need help at safety. Mayock, 55, played safety for the Giants after graduating from Boston College.

In its ninth year at the draft, the NFL Network will have 51 hours of live coverage today, Friday and Saturday. The first round begins at 8 tonight.

ESPN will televise the draft for the 35th year and Chris Berman will host the coverage for the 34th year. Mel Kiper Jr. and Todd McShay are among the many experts who have the Pats selecting Minnesota defensive end Ra'Shede Hageman, a converted tight end, with the 29th pick. Notre Dame defensive tackle Louis Nix III is another popular choice.

Mayock expects quarterbacks Johnny Manziel of Texas A&M, Blake Bortles of Central Florida and Derek Carr of Fresno State to be drafted in the first round. After Teddy Bridgewater of Louisville performed so poorly during his pro day on March 17, Mayock would be surprised if he went in the first round.

Bridgewater had looked good on tape, but his pro day changed Mayock's opinion of him.

Manziel has his own critics — ESPN's Ron Jaworski rates him a third-round pick — but Mayock believes Manziel has the "it" factor and Bridgewater does not.

There has been some talk about the Pats selecting Alabama quarterback A.J. McCarron in a later round as a possible replacement eventually for Tom Brady.

"He's better than the average Alabama quarterback," Mayock said, "but in this particular draft, he's going to be a second- or third-round pick. I don't think it's a bad thing. I think that's probably where he belongs. He's going to have an opportunity at some point to become a starting quarterback in the NFL."

ESPN draft analyst Bill Polian, a six-time winner as NFL Executive of the Year with the Bills, Panthers and Colts, urged fans not to expect too much too soon from anyone drafted this week.

"We assume," Polian said during a conference call this week, "these guys are going to come in and make the difference between winning and losing and they rarely, rarely do."

Polian said NFL teams want their first- and second-round picks to contribute. Third-round players are more hit or miss.

"Anybody after that that's a contributor," Polian said, "give your scouting staff a bonus because they've done a heckuva job, literally. And we did that in Indianapolis, by the way."

Polian waits four years to judge if a draft year is a success, and he considers it one when a team lands four contributing players through the draft or by signing undrafted collegiate free agents.

Last year when the NFL Draft was held in April, 6.2 million viewers watched the opening round on ESPN, 1.3 million more than the average audience of the three NBA Western Conference Finals games on ESPN. Another 1.5 million watched the draft on the NFL Network.

Mayweather replay

A repeat of the Floyd Mayweather-Marcos Maidana boxing match will be broadcast at 9:30 p.m. Saturday as part of Showtime's free preview weekend. The bout was shown live on pay-per-view last Saturday.

Contact Bill Doyle at wdoyle@telegram.com.Follow him on Twitter @BillDoyle15.