Media officials in China frequently demote outspoken journalists for flouting censorship. Now staff at the freewheeling Guangdong-based Southern Weekly news magazine – also known as Southern Weekend – have published open letters demanding the ousting of provincial propaganda chief Tuo Zhen for his heavy-handed information control – with hundreds gathering at their office to demonstrate support, according to the Associated Press. If they succeed, they could galvanise the media to challenge press restrictions across the country. So what are their chances?

The journalists have three things going for them. The first is timing. Their protest was sparked when censors rewrote the publication's new year editorial on political reform as a paean to the Communist party. But that was just the latest example of journalists pushed to the limit by leaders orchestrating the power handoff from Hu Jintao to Xi Jinping. At the Committee to Protect Journalists, we have documented at least two additional cases where outspoken news outlets saw their staff overhauled to neuter critical reporting in 2012. Other journalists quit in frustration at escalating censorship. As party chief Xi Jinping prepares to become president in March, Chinese journalists have a unique opportunity to send a clear message to the incoming leadership – and test its response.

The media's second advantage is their colleagues. Journalists have publicly defended their rights even in China's restrictive media environment, and other outlets are defying propaganda orders to signal their support of demands for freedom. Headlines aggregated by the Sina News website formed an acrostic reading "Keep it up, Southern Weekly!". When officials ordered editors nationwide to reprint an article condemning the protest on Monday, many added the disclaimer that it did not represent their opinion. Even state-run newspapers struck conciliatory notes. "Old media regulatory policies cannot go on as they are now," wrote Beijing's Global Times. As one Chinese journalist told CPJ after signing a protest letter in 2010, "They can't punish everyone".

The third boost to the protest is the internet, which has facilitated public debate on sensitive topics – such as government handling of disasters – in spite of censorship. Search engines that have blocked keyword searches for "Southern Weekend" pose no obstacle to China's most engaged web users, who deploy puns, images and homonyms to denote banned content. The debate has also flourished on homegrown social media platforms, such as Sina Weibo. "This Weekend, don't rest," was the phrase Beijing-based Caijing newspaper used to reference the protest on its official Weibo account this week, according to the China Digital Times website. Others were more direct. "I don't play word games; I support the friends at Southern Weekend," the actor Chen Kui told 27 million followers, according to Tea Leaf Nation.

This level of support may suggest that victory is within reach. But defying censorship is not the same as dismantling it. So far, censors are continuing to delete Weibo messages and accounts belonging to the most active supporters, according to international media reports. And as much as the party is touting transparency and anti-corruption – both inherently compatible with a free press – there is no sign yet of a change in media policy. Xi Jinping and his new colleagues in power have to prove themselves faithful to Hu Jintao's legacy to ensure a smooth transition. Strict information management is likely to continue for the foreseeable future.

In that light, the consequences for the Southern Weekly team look less promising. In 2004, three journalists at the Weekly's sister paper Southern Metropolis Daily were jailed on trumped-up corruption charges after reporting critically on local officials. The chances of that happening today are smaller than they used to be, but the threat remains: CPJ recorded at least 32 journalists, mostly online freelancers, behind bars in China on 1 December. Fines and dismissal are more common reprisals for disobeying media directives, and the journalists involved in the protest know that their action has put their livelihoods on the line. Authorities can use these measures behind closed doors, under the cover of institutional reshuffles, which helps to shield them from international scrutiny.

By taking their dispute with Tuo Zhen public, Southern Weekly has blown these secretive, behind-the-scenes machinations wide open. They've provided the public with an excuse to express widespread frustration with the status quo of media censorship, and the public has responded. It's time for Communist party leaders to do the same. Punishing the Weekly staff would mark a real setback for the prospect of reform. Instead, Xi Jinping could transform several damaging years of press restrictions – by listening to China's media.