NFL: Playoff math simple for hopefuls ... just win

Saturday

Dec 31, 2011 at 12:01 AMDec 31, 2011 at 10:17 AM

Reduced to its simplest, the NFL playoff races come down to this: Cincinnati, Denver, Dallas and the New York Giants must win. Then it gets complicated, because the Giants play host to the Cowboys in prime time, and the loser is out.

Reduced to its simplest, the NFL playoff races come down to this: Cincinnati, Denver, Dallas and the New York Giants must win. Then it gets complicated, because the Giants play host to the Cowboys in prime time, and the loser is out.

Even that, though, is easy to decipher compared to the chase for the final AFC wild card.

Just the way the NFL wants it.

“With this game with the Cowboys, it is a very exciting, very, very historical week for our players and franchise,” Giants coach Tom Coughlin said. “The setting is incredible.”

As it will be at Paul Brown Stadium, which actually is sold out. The Bengals, who get the other AFC wild card with a victory, appealed to their fans to fill the stadium and, by Wednesday, all the tickets were gone.

“Just to have everyone here in Cincinnati wanting to come out for this game, I think that’s something we’ve been wanting and been trying to get for a while,” quarterback Andy Dalton said. “I’m just happy everybody responded to it. It’s going to be a fun atmosphere, and we’re excited about it.”

As for the playoff primer, try this:

If Denver wins at home against Kansas City, the AFC West belongs to the Broncos. If the Chiefs win, then the Raiders can grab the division with a home victory against San Diego. Denver gets the spot regardless if the Raiders lose. But Oakland also has a chance for a wild card, while Denver doesn’t.

Baltimore wins the AFC North by beating Cincinnati. A Ravens loss opens the door for Pittsburgh to win the division with a win at Cleveland.

NFC West winner San Francisco earns a first-round bye if it wins at lowly St. Louis. A loss would allow New Orleans, the NFC South champion, to get the bye by beating Carolina.

Detroit and Atlanta are the NFC wild cards.

With a victory over Buffalo, AFC East champ New England will get home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. Baltimore or Pittsburgh still have a shot at that if the Patriots fall.

Houston has won the AFC South.

Now, here’s what can happen in the race for the second AFC wild card if the Bengals lose to Baltimore.

Cincinnati still gets it if the New York Jets and Oakland lose, or if the Jets and Denver lose.

Oakland moves in by winning while Denver wins, and having the Tennessee Titans lose along with the Bengals, or by having the Jets win while Cincinnati loses.

The Jets are in with a win and defeats for the Bengals, Titans and either the Raiders or Broncos.

Tennessee has three scenarios, all involving a victory by the Titans and a loss by the Bengals. They also need a Jets win and a loss by either Denver or Oakland, or a Jets loss and wins by both the Broncos and Raiders.

OK, exhale.

Also at stake Sunday is determining which team will earn the top pick in the draft.

If Indianapolis loses to Jacksonville, the Colts get the first overall pick, likely Stanford quarterback Andrew Luck. But if the Colts beat the Jaguars and St. Louis loses to San Francisco, the Rams would suddenly seize the first overall pick.

The Rams have Sam Bradford, who was the top overall draft pick in 2010 and who looked to everyone like the next great quarterback as a rookie before injuries and the Rams’ collapse this season dragged him down, too.

If the Rams stick with Bradford, they will likely trade the first overall pick.

The teams most desperate for a quarterback, like Miami and Washington, would be tempted to do anything necessary to get Luck. But if the Rams opted to draft Luck, Bradford could be available in a trade.

Baylor junior Robert Griffin III will likely be the second quarterback taken if he leaves school early.

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