Tuesday 12 October 2010 03.00 EDT
First published on Tuesday 12 October 2010 03.00 EDT

Ask Montenegro's players what has changed since the 2010 World Cup qualifiers and all reply with a combination of the same three factors: luck, experience and balance.

For a new country, drawn from the pot of minnows, they performed creditably in World Cup qualifying, but there is a sense that they did not quite get the results they deserved: 2-2 draws against Bulgaria and Cyprus probably should have been wins; the 4-1 defeat in Bulgaria looked far worse than it really was. Soft penalties were given against them, there were unfortunate ricochets, and perhaps a lack of conviction at the back. A team packed with talented forwards either defended en masse, or poured forwards in numbers, and so were alternately involved in either tedious 0-0s or high-scoring thrillers, with little in between.

Since Zlatko Kranjcar took over earlier this year, though, Montenegro seem to have found the right blend, despite the loss of the highly-gifted Fiorentina forward Stevan Jovetic to a serious knee injury and, perhaps even more critically given the make-up of the squad, the Spartak Moscow anchor Nikola Drincic. They have enjoyed a change of luck, too: while Switzerland's tedious football on Friday deserved little, for example, their manager Ottmar Hitzfeld was justified in wondering how the goalkeeper Miodrag Bozovic had managed to get himself in the way of four efforts in the final two minutes of the first half. He evidently has excellent reflexes and no little courage, but he looked shaky every time Switzerland got deliveries into the box from wide.

Perhaps because of the absenceloss of Jovetic to a serious knee injury, Kranjcar, the father of the Spurs midfielder Niko, has modified the 4‑3-2-1 favoured under his predecessor Zoran Filipovic to a 4‑4‑1‑1. Mirko Vucinic is the key attacking figure, operating just behind the Rijeka the striker Radomir Djalovic; the Roma forward was superb against Switzerland on Friday, physically robust, imaginative and intelligent in his use of the ball, and clinical in taking the one clear chance that came his way.

Milorad Pekovic, suspended for the Switzerland game, is likely to return in the centre of midfield alongside Elsad Zverotic, who is more usually a defender with his club side Lucerne. That is a solid rather than a spectacular pairing but there is creativity wide, with Simon Vukcevic and Branko Boskovic having begun their careers as playmakers. Vukcevic, now at Sporting Lisbon, is a combustible, occasionally brilliant, presence; Boskovic, who never settled in France, rebuilt his career at Rapid Vienna and is now at DC United in the US, is a calmer, more languid figure, who admits he does not really relish the defensive responsibility that comes with his new position.

The strength of the back four is very much in the centre. Marko Basa is extremely composed – perhaps overly so at times – and quite prepared to jink past an opponent if it enhances his passing options while Miodrag Dzudovic is a classic stopper. He was widely perceived as the weak link during World Cup qualifying, but he has blossomed since taking the captaincy at Spartak Nalchik, the surprise overachievers in Russia this season. After three successive clean sheets he was boldly talking on Friday about how Montenegro do not fear Wayne Rooney, but the faint smile on his face as he did so suggested he knows perfectly well that his main role will be picking up England's other striker, Peter Crouch, while Basa tracks Rooney. Both full-backs gave cause for concern, although with Switzerland playing two attacking wide midfielders in Zherdan Shaqiri and Valentin Stocker, that is perhaps understandable. The left-back Milan Jovanovic, who has been linked with Birmingham and West Brom, looked uneasy, his passing notably lacking in assurance in a generally technically gifted side.

On the other flank the 19-year-old Stefan Savic, who attracted interest from Arsenal in the summer and came off the bench against them for Partizan Belgrade in the Champions League last month, made his debut, replacing the injured Savo Pavicevic. He is more naturally a centre-back, something that was evident in how often, early on, he drifted infield and was caught by long diagonals played over him by Gokhan Inler. He settled in the second half but that may be a vulnerability England can look to exploit, particularly given Steven Gerrard's natural shape of pass.

It was notable that as Dejan Savicevic, the president of the Montenegrin Football Federation, was excitedly working out what results they need, even he was assuming they were playing for second and a playoff spot. He was not writing off the England matches as such, but there was a definite sense that any point would be a bonus.

England should win but Montenegro are a compact, well-balanced side with explosive attacking potential. As Kranjcar pointed out, if England given them a chance, Montengro are capable of taking it. And he is a master of such games: with both Croatia and Montenegro, he remains unbeaten in qualifiers for major tournaments.