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Sports Betting Thread

Any other CF'ers out there into sports betting? I thought maybe we could share information, recommendations, insights, etc. to help try and make each other some money.

I'm a small time bettor...usually betting $50-$100 per week on college football and the NFL. I don't do any baseball or basketball because its just to volatile. I'll typically bet on 4-5 games per week and then try a 3-4 team parlay.

Looking at the lines for this weekend...anyone have any games they think are locks? I'm thinking of a 4 team parlay for this week:

Re: Sports Betting Thread

OK, I'm a betting dummy as I've never really gotten into it. If there's anybody like me that needs a refresher every once in a while, I've copied a betting 101 guide from betus.com as a helper...

Guide To Straight Bets

Straight Parlays Teasers If-Bets Action-Reverse

A straight bet is very simply one wager on the outcome of a single event or game as determined by a known point spread, money line (ML), run line, Total or Puck (Canadian) Line. To win the wager, the team or entrant must win the game or event outright or cover the given spread.

Each event will have a favorite and an underdog. The favorite will be designated by having a negative (-) sign and the underdog will have a positive (+) sign or no sign at all.

Payouts

Payouts will be determined by posted lines or odds, which are usually set at -110 (win $100 for every $110 wagered) unless otherwise noted. This can also be written in fraction form as 11/10. Please note that while changing spreads can affect the chances of winning your wager, it is the odds that affect your payout.

To calculate your payout, either:

Divide 100 by the negative (Favorite) ML, and then multiply that by your wager amount, or,

Divide the positive (Underdog) ML by 100, and then multiply that by your wager amount.

Straight bets are used in all sports.

The simplest and most common line is the money line. The money line is the amount you must wager on the favorite in order to win $100. There is no spread to cover with a money line wager. All your team needs to do is win the game.

Point spreads show you the number of points a team must win by if they are the favorite or can lose by if they are the underdog. You will know the favorite because, just as with money lines, the points will have a negative sign. Underdogs, conversely, are designated by being given points. Their points are shown in the positive and that is the amount of points the team can lose by and still be considered winners for wagering purposes.

For example: You see the Dolphins are playing the Steelers next week. The Steelers are the favorites, you know, because they are listed at -5 points on the point spread. That means they have to win the game by more than 5 points for a wager on the point spread to be graded as a win. On the money line, they are at -210. The negative sign shows them to be favored and means you would have to wager $210 in order to win $100 on this game. The Dolphins, conversely, are listed at +5 points on the point spread and +200 on the money line. A $100 wager on the money line on the Dolphins would pay you $200 if they win the game outright and, wagering on the point spread means they could lose the game by 4 points or less and you would still win that wager.

With point spreads, the number of points is always the same. You only need to change the -/+ sign. So, taking the underdog Dolphins, this means you will need to bet $110 to win $100, but your team can lose by up to 4 points and you still win. If your team loses by 5 points you push, and they now have to lose by 6 points for you to lose the game.

For example: Let’s say you place 2 wagers on the Steelers in this game. The first wager you place is on the point spread and the second wager is on the money line. Game time comes and the Dolphins keep it real close, in fact, they are winning 21-17 until the final drive when Big Ben takes his team downfield in a two-minute drill and runs the ball in, giving the Steelers a 24-21 victory. What does this mean for you? Well, it means you won on your money line wager because the Steelers pulled off a victory. On the point spread, however, you had them at -5 points. When you subtract 5 points from their final score you end up with a 19-21 game in favor of the Dolphins and so this wager on the Steelers would be a loss for you. If the spread had been 3 points, instead of 5, this game would have ended up in a 21-21 tie and your wager would have been what is called a ‘Push’ or ‘No Action’ and your wager amount would have been returned to you.

Basically the point spread gives you a secondary, fantasy score that is used only for wagering purposes.

Betting the Totals or Over/Under is very simple. There will be a number given in the Totals section for which you will have 2 options. You can take either the Over or the Under. To win the wager, the 2 team’s combined score for that (segment of the) game must add up to either more or less than the given total, depending on which side you took. If you took the Over, you’d want the scores to add up to more than the Total offered and if you took the Under, you’d want the combined scores to add up to less than the Total offered.

For example: In the football game above, the Total given by the book makers was 43.5 points. The final score of 24-21 adds up to 45 points. If you had wagered on the Over/Under, you would have a winning wager only if you took the Over.

Run lines and Puck, or Canadian, lines are basically point spreads for baseball and hockey respectively, with attached money lines. They almost always are set at +/- 1.5 runs or goals while the attached money lines will move and vary.

RULES:

1) All straight bets are single wagers the outcome of which is Win, Loss or Push (Tie, No Action, Cancelled) based on the event or game wagered on.

3) The line taken when the wager is placed is constant regardless of subsequent line fluctuation on the BetUS site.

4) Ties, Cancellations, Pushes and No Action wagers, for whatever reasons they occur, will result in wager amounts being returned to the BetUS client’s BetUS account.

Buying Points

In basketball and football, the sports with point spreads, you will sometimes see a game and a point spread that you like somewhat but you are not quite sure about. For single wagers, we allow you to buy points on those games and, thus, put the odds of winning more in your favor. Of course, there is a premium to be paid for this service as we would otherwise run ourselves right out of business. The price you pay for each half point you buy averages out to an extra 10&#37; juice, or vigorish.

When a line is at standard odds of -110, there is a 10% juice. An extra 10% then would make that line at -120.

For example: You see the Pistons at -4 against the Heat but would feel more comfortable with them at -2 as you are pretty sure Shaq will keep it close at least. You then would have to purchase 2 full points. Paying an extra 10% per half point means it would cost you an extra 40% to move the spread 2 points, however, there is a 10% charge to get from 1.5 points to 2 points. So, where the game started at -4 (-110), you are now getting it at -2 (-150). You now have to wager $150 to win $100, instead of the standard $110. By paying more and buying those extra two points, your chances of winning your bet have increased significantly. Detroit ends up winning 121-118. At the standard price, you would have lost that wager but, by paying the premium and taking the points, you are now up $100 whereas you otherwise would be down $110. As in most things in life, you get what you pay for.

One more facet of this feature is in football, where, if you buy on, off or through the 3-point or 7-point mark an extra 20-25% is charged. The extra charge is because of the significance of these 2 point spreads in football.

For example: If the game above were a football game and you bought from -4 down to -2 for the favorites, you would have bought through 3 and so, on top of the -150 you had to pay in basketball, you add another 15%, bringing the line up to -165. It might seem costly to have to wager $165 in order to win $100 but you must decide for yourself whether or not you deem that price worth paying in order to better guarantee yourself a winning wager. After all, in the end it is not about how much you risked to win, but that you actually do win.

Re: Sports Betting Thread

Watch the Tenn / Indy game. Tenn seems to have the Colts number at least with keeping it close. Although PacMan will not be able to cover Harrison this year.

Clones and 18 points looks pretty good, I think the Hawks have only covered once against ISU in the past 9 years. Cleveland is a mess, so Cincy looks good, TB may gave NO some troubles since they have a QB now.

Re: Sports Betting Thread

I have never been huge into betting on sports but I did have a great weekend in Vegas. Went Labor day weekend a few years back... Decided to try some parlays, did a 3-4-5-6 team parlay... In each one I used the same teams and just added one... Hit the 3, 4, ad 5 and JUST missed the 6 by a point (Louisville at Kentucky). Pretty much paid for one of the best Vegas weekends ever...

Unfortunately a few months later I learned NOT to bet on baseball, damn Kerry Wood!

Re: Sports Betting Thread

That's a pretty good summary Jeremy. Although it doesn't really discuss the parlay much.

In a parlay, you can bet on multiple games. In order for you to win the bet, you must bet correctly on each and every game that is in the parlay. So when someone says a 4-team parlay...they must win their bet on each game. If they go 3-1, they still lose. Parlays are very lucrative but very hard to predict about about 3-4 teams.

Re: Sports Betting Thread

Vegas and local bookies love parlays. Most people lose them...it's hard to get 3 or 4 bets right. It really is. I used to take parlay bets (small money) and always made money. There will be that one week where you get killed but over the long haul it's a major house edge. I love to put $5 on one or two every week though. They are great for the casual gambler in that they provide a lot of entertainment for the money. Because the casual gambler loves these they become a great source of income for bookies. Casual gamblers usually lose.

I play a lot of teasers. I like to tease home team favorites down to where they only have to win the game. A 3 team teaser gives you 6 points per team so I like to find home team favorites that are favored by about 6-7 points. With the 6 points they basically only have to win the game to cover the bet. Not failsafe...oh no!

Re: Sports Betting Thread

This is a poor payoff for the bet. If there were no transaction cost/bookmaker spread/rake/ . . . whatever you call it . . . then you would be getting a $160 payoff for the $10 bet. $132 seems like too much less than $160 to me.

A good way to look at it is you are making a 16:1 bet on $8.25 and paying the bookmaker $1.75. A 21&#37; fee (1.75/8.25=.2121) is pretty high if you ask me. Your edge would need to be awfully high in order to overcome this.

When you make a normal bet, don't you put in $11 and get $20 back if your team beats the spread? That is much more reasonable.

Edit:

Okay, maybe the $1.75 isn't that bad. If the four games were at different times and you tried to replicate this yourself by doing the bets back-to-back and just letting the money ride, you would pay transaction costs 4 times and only have $109 for your $10 investment. In either case, I think your edge would have to be pretty big to beat the transaction costs.

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