The Impact of Eligibility Recertification on Households Excluded from an Antipoverty Programme

The paper provides reliable estimates of the impact of recertification on ineligible households from Colombia's Familias en Acción, an antipoverty programme, relying on a regression discontinuity design. We find that exclusion is associated with a reversal of welfare, education attainment, and economic inclusion. The findings are unsurprising when set against expectations from theory and evidence on the impact of social transfer receipt, but have far reaching implications for the design and implementation of exit conditions. Current practice relying on the re-assessment of entry conditions to assess programme exit is shown to be counterproductive.