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20 Days to Election Day: Vermont

There are four races on the ballot this year: President, Senator, Governor and their lone House seat race. This should be an easy analysis entry. For President, Obama will take Vermont’s three electoral votes.

In the Governor’s race, incumbent Democrat Peter Shumlin is a liberal’s liberal. He has structured health care reform in Vermont to mirror the socialized model to the north in Canada. He is a huge supporter of gay marriage and proudly presided over a gay wedding. He has been an outspoken critic of nuclear power and has worked tirelessly to shut down Vermont’s lone nuclear plant. He will face state legislator Randy Brock who has shown a general favoritism towards business interests during his tenure. Vermont is perhaps one of the most liberal states in the country and Shumlin is a perfect fit.

Case in point regarding the state’s liberalism is the election of technically independent, openly socialist and incumbent Senator Bernie Sanders. This race is not even a blip on the political radar map. His opponent is John MacGovern who, quite frankly, has less than the chance of a snowball in hell.

For the lone House seat, incumbent Democrat Peter Welch seeks reelection. Welch, who can trace his roots in politics back to Chicago seeking to end racial discrimination in housing, was first elected to Congress in 2006 on an anti-war platform. Welch’s hands are all over recent Obama initiatives like the Dodd-Frank bill on financial reform. For example, everyone is aware that the so-called Durbin amendment, which limits bank fees on debit card transactions, has had unintended (?) consequences elsewhere where banks have made up for the loss of that revenue by charging fees elsewhere. Just recently, there was a report that so-called “free checking” now requires a record high minimum balance in order to qualify as “free.” What people do not know is that this is actually the Durbin-Welch amendment. His opponent for the GOP is Mark Donka who, quite frankly, has even a lower chance than MacGovern has in unseating Sanders.

In conclusion: Obama takes Vermont’s three electoral votes. Shumlin wins reelection as Governor, Sanders as Senator, and Welch to the House. Vermont is a Democratic sweep.

Running totals thus far: Obama leads in the electoral vote count 170-159. Republicans still control the Senate 34-28 and the House 140-124.