Sorry, I was typing while having a conversation with someone. What I meant was, if you have random draft order, it doesn't make sense at all for someone to luck into what I40 is describing. If you had a real draft order, that is, one that is determined on merit (standings), then it at least makes some sense...or so I gather at a quick glance without having any experience in the league until the 2nd round of this draft we're currently in...

So I'd like to hear from some of the league vets on the matter, I'm sure there's something I'm not considering...

There's very little difference in the value of the "first keeper" vs. the "twelfth keeper" -- i.e., what spot you pick in during the third round. That's because you have to give up a second round pick, which is worth much more than a third round pick, to keep the guy in the third round. Only when you have lucked into a draft pick will it make sense, and that is not really that much more likely to happen at pick 25 vs 36. Only 4 3rd round picks were taken last year, and they were not picks 25-28. Only in a league where you could forfeit the pick in the round you drafted the player would Idoit's point make sense. If you're picking for "keeper value" in the third round, you probably should have taken the guy in the second round because that's what you're giving up next year.

Indeed, the value of the first fourth-round keeper would seemingly be equivalent to the value of the first third-round keeper. Keeper strength is different than overall player strength. The best keepers this year aren't Brandon Marshall, for instance, who was kept for a second round pick but would be drafted there anyway. The best keepers are the guys like Marshawn Lynch and Alfred Morris. Guys that would be drafted the first round but were kept for picks after round 10. Whether that occurs in round 12 or round 13 (where the first overall pick would get "first dibs" or last) really does not bear on fairness, in my opinion. At the end of the day, I see almost no value in the concept of "first keeper."

A non-random draft order doesn't make sense either in this league, and I've never made the playoffs. That rule is premised on the idea that the better teams have better talent. However, we have almost complete turnover from year to year on our team. It's highly likely that a team that missed the playoffs has some solid keepers or has traded for draft picks that has actually positioned his team better for the upcoming season than last year's better team, for both teams must forfeit nearly their entire team.

I also don't understand the value of the first keeper concept. If anything, it is disadvantageous to have to use 3.01 to keep a player (though it is theoretically most advantageous to have 2.12 if you have someone to keep for a second) that requires a third to keep. But, as I think Hammer said (didn't read close, its late), chances are the best keepers are not coming from third round picks. Really confused by this entire discussion, haha.

You extracted value out of Brandon Marshall who you drafted at 3.01 last year, by trading him and him being kept by loaf at 2.12 this year. Of course you are fine with it.

Also, Kraftster drafted Doug Martin in the third round last year and is keeping him this year. The point isn't the strength of the keeper value, its the likelihood that someone is keeper worthy at that spot. Montee Ball, Lamar Miller, LeVeon Bell(all taken in the 3rd), and Eddy Lacy(4.01) are the likely players to suddenly jump to top 2 round picks. They're certainly more likely to hold their value rather than someone dropped to the 10th or 15th. The high picks shouldn't also get the opportunity to draft the more certain keepers.

Letang Is The Truth wrote:just as a bystander reading this proposal- i am confused.

carry on

Often times in fantasy sports, a "snake draft" is used. This means that after the first round of the draft, the draft order is reversed for the second round and reversed again for the third round. This means that the person who picks first in the first round, drafts last in the second round and then first again in the third round and so forth. In this specific league, keepers are allowed to be kept in exchange for the draft pick from the round prior to the round the player was drafted the previous year as long as they were drafted no earlier than round three. THis means that a player drafted in the first or second round cannot be kept and that a player drafted in the third round the year prior could be kept in exchange for a second round pick, a player drafted in the fourth round the year prior could be kept in exchange for a third round pick and so on.

This issue that comes in to play here is that the person who gets the benefit of drafting first overall also gets the benefit of drafting first in the third round. THe benefit of having the first pick in the third round allows them to set themselves up to draft a player most likely to jump in value and be a value as a keeper in the second round the following year.

I ultimately don't see how 3.01 is any better of keeper pick than 4.01. I think you are confusing absolute value with keeper value. The most valuable keepers are Foster, Lynch, Gronk---guys chosen well below where they will be drafted next year. They have just as good of a shot to be drafted in round 4.01 6,01 as 3.01. because you have to give up a pick in the round before you draft a guy, the guy you draft must increase in value by at least one round to make him keeper worthy. This decreases substantially the likelihood that a guy will be picked, making "keeper consideration" a de minimis consideration at 3.01. Indeed, I think the advantage of the x.01 pick increases with respect to keeper worth as the draft progresses because the player has a higher likelihood o increasing in value by greater than one round since there are more rounds in value they can increase.

I think you are way off base thinking I care about keeper value vs absolute value. A first year starting running back is the most likely to be a valuable keeper. They're all likely go round 3-5. They never go top 2. They're also the most likely to suddenly become a first round pick. I think you are way off base thinking I care about keeper value vs absolute value. If 3.01 = 4.01 as far as keeper value, then it makes more sense to change it so that the first person getting an X.01 is not the person that gets the first overall pick. I will never keep someone drafted in the third, but that doesn't mean its not an advantage, and a miniscule advantage is still an advantage.

I would rather have it so that picks drafted in the third round cannot be kept along with rounds 1 and 2. Regardless, any changes should not be made until next season's draft since players were drafted this year based on the current rules.