As Alberta prepares to redraw its electoral boundaries ahead of the next provincial vote in 2019, some politicians are worried rural areas could end up the loser in the process.

The electoral boundaries commission will kick off public hearings slated for 15 communities on Jan. 16 and 17 with meetings in Edmonton, with Calgary hearings scheduled for Feb. 21 and 22.

A new commission is appointed every eight to 10 years, to adjust the province’s ridings based on changes to population and other factors. The current body has been mandated not to increase the legislature’s current 87 seats.

But while Alberta’s population has grown by 20 per cent since the last review in 2009-10, the distribution of that growth is uneven.

Al Kemmere, president of the Alberta Association of Municipal Districts and Counties (AAMDC) said the organization’s biggest concern is that a redistribution by population could shift seats from rural to urban, leading to potentially sprawling ridings in the countryside and affecting representation.

“It makes it difficult for these more remote areas within the province, where it creates such huge geographical boundaries for the ridings, that it can be very challenging for both the residents in the area to have access to the MLA and the MLA to get out to those communities to cover those communities,” he said in an interview Monday.

“Another item we need to consider in this is the whole role of the culture of a community … I know it won’t be an easy thing for them to sort out but we are concerned about losing rural ridings.”

The commission will use population numbers from the 2016 census, due to be released next month, in its work. Using the most recent population estimate from the province in 2016 — 4,252,879 — the commission says the average population for a constituency would be 48,883.

Constituency populations are allowed to vary 25 per cent from that average, and provincial legislation allows for four seats to fall outside that threshold. Currently there are only two seats — Dunvegan-Central Peace-Notley and Lesser Slave Lake — that fall below the 25 per cent threshold.

Wildrose MLA Nathan Cooper, part of an overwhelmingly rural caucus, said he’s hopeful the boundary commission can do its work without causing a divide between city and country.

He noted that Calgary and Edmonton currently have 44 seats, a figure that matches up with the two major cities’ 50 per cent share of the population.

“I would expect we would continue to see a reflection of the population. Obviously there’s going to be some lines redrawn and some adjustments made but I don’t see a major concern around the distribution of seats,” said Cooper, the MLA for Olds-Didsbury-Three Hills.

But Tory MLA Wayne Drysdale said he’s worried some rural residents will be left in the lurch.

“I know there’s going to have to be some changes but hopefully they will keep it in mind that people need to have good representation,” said the Grande Prairie-Wapiti MLA, who is concerned there is no one from northern Alberta on the panel.

University of Lethbridge political scientist Harold Jansen said the release of next month’s census figures will give some indication of the challenge facing the commission and the extent of controversy likely to accompany the riding review.

He said the rural-urban split is almost always the dominant issue in boundary adjustments in Alberta given the unstoppable urbanization of the province, noting the last review added four seats in part to avoid complications.

The issue is particularly fraught for the NDP government, which is strongest in the cities and has faced heat in rural Alberta over issues such as farm-safety legislation, said Jansen.

“Absolutely this is going to take on very political overtones,” said Jansen, noting that comes in part from how the commission is struck.

The boundaries commission is chaired by Justice Myra Bielby of the Alberta Court of Appeal, who was appointed by cabinet. Speaker Bob Wanner appointed two other members nominated by Premier Rachel Notley and two nominated by Wildrose Leader Brian Jean.

Bielby said Monday the commission is prepared to deal with the challenges that come with its task.

“We’ve got to respect the principle that each Albertan’s vote should be relatively equivalent to every other Albertans’ vote but we can’t do that simply by drawing 87 circles on a provincial map and saying, ‘we’re done,’” she said.

Bielby said the panel will take into account such factors as effectiveness of representation and the integrity of community borders, and will examine the continued use of hybrid rural-urban ridings.

That is why it’s crucial for the commission to get local input on how the boundaries should be drawn, she said.

Beyond the public hearings, Albertans can make written submissions by Feb. 8. The commission will issue an interim report by the end of May, then begin public consultations again before issuing a final report by Oct. 31.

The legislative assembly will then decide whether to follow the panel’s recommendation.

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One month into building a new political party and MLA Derek Fildebrandt is discovering it’s not as easy at it looks. Not that building a new party has ever looked easy. Except perhaps to Fildebrandt who announced last month he was interim leader of the Freedom Conservative Party. I’m not sure if he expected thankful voters to stampede to his door, hoist him up in their thankful arms and parade him around the town square. Or maybe he at least expected some press coverage that didn’t in some way mock his checkered political past. He got neither.