Edward Fitzpatrick: Why is Taveras taking aim at Pell?

Saturday

Aug 9, 2014 at 5:23 PM

In a new TV ad, Taveras turns his fire on Pell, raising the question of whether Pell is rising in the polls and, if so, at whose expense.

Edward Fitzpatrick fitzprov

In the brisk days of early February, a Providence Journal/WPRI poll showed Providence Mayor Angel Taveras (31 percent) holding a slim lead over General Treasurer Gina M. Raimondo (27 percent) in the Democratic primary for governor and political newcomer Clay Pell trailing in third place (15 percent).

As the race began to heat up in late May, a Journal/WPRI-12 poll showed little change, with Taveras at 33 percent, Raimondo at 29 percent and Pell at 11.5 percent.

But here in the swelter of midsummer, the contest is sizzling. And in a new TV ad, Taveras turns his fire on Pell, raising the question of whether Pell is rising in the polls and, if so, at whose expense.

Now, that question can’t be definitively answered until the results of another independent poll become public. But if you’re looking for cold hard facts, let’s start by looking at cold hard cash: Pell has funneled more than $3 million of his own money into his campaign account, and he spent $1.09 million in the latest quarter.

And Taveras just took a cold, hard swipe at Pell — portraying him as “inexperienced and out of touch” by focusing on how long Pell has lived in Rhode Island, noting he didn’t vote in three of the last five Democratic primaries and saying he’s held nine jobs in eight years.

Up until this point, Taveras’ primary battle has been with Raimondo. But now he has opened up a second front in that war. And that’s a significant decision given that he’s outgunned by Raimondo and Pell in terms of campaign cash. If you only have so many bullets, you don’t fire them at opponents who don’t represent a threat. (For instance, no one is going to be attacking Todd Giroux any time soon.)

So what does the Taveras ad tell us about the dynamics of the Democratic primary?

Well, perhaps the race remains static and Taveras is just making sure he maintains his thin margin over Raimondo and doesn’t cede a few valuable percentage points to the guy in third. But there might be 1.09 million reasons to believe that all those Pell bucks are bucking up his profile among voters, posing a real threat to Raimondo/Taveras hegemony.

“I don’t think he’s shooting out into the lead,” said Kay Israel, a professor of political communication at Rhode Island College. “But I do think he’s cutting into the lead of the others. And even if it’s a small surge, the question is where is he drawing from, and it’s probably coming from Taveras. I tend to think Raimondo’s core is pretty solid behind her.”

The May poll found that 22 percent of likely primary voters still weren’t sure which candidate they’d support. Also, it found that 44 percent of Taveras supporters said there was a good chance they’d change their mind, while 40 percent of Pell supporters and 38 percent of Raimondo supporters said there was a good chance they’d change their mind. (While that’s no Narragansett Bay, that’s still a lot of fluidity.)

“Taveras has two different flanks to worry about — the left flank, which Pell represents, and the right flank, which Raimondo represents,” Israel said. “Taveras has to worry about the left the most because he can’t do as much about his right flank.”

While Taveras might have more to lose from a Pell surge, it’s been clear from the start that Pell hopes to poach Democratic support from both Taveras and Raimondo. Just think back to January when Pell launched his campaign alongside Taveras’ former deputy campaign manager, Victor Capellan, and Johnston Mayor Joseph M. Polisena, who falls on the more conservative and suburban side of the Democratic spectrum.

Philip M. Keefe, president of the Service Employees International Union Local 580 and vice president of the SEIU State Council, is backing Taveras, and last week he criticized the amount of money Pell is pumping into the primary.

“In this democracy, we shouldn’t allow people to buy elections,” he said. “Whether it’s Clay Pell or the Koch brothers, any time anyone infuses that much personal money into a campaign, it’s an abomination of the process.”

Keefe added that he considers Pell “a decent, honorable man,” saying, “I think at some point in time he will do an admirable job in whatever political office he ends up in.” But he said SEIU Local 580 is backing Taveras because he’s “battle tested” after dealing with Providence’s financial problems and he’s “willing to sit down with people to work things out.”

Keefe said that if Pell is surging in the polls, it’s hurting Taveras because Pell “is going to take from the more liberal and progressive Democrats who wouldn’t support Raimondo anyway” because she led the state pension overhaul. So unions backing Pell are running the risk that their efforts will backfire by handing the primary to Raimondo, he said. And, he added, “my worst nightmare is Raimondo as governor.”

Robert A. Walsh Jr., executive director the National Education Association Rhode Island, is backing Pell, and he said the Taveras ad shows that “this has always been a race between Clay Pell and Gina Raimondo.”

For months, Walsh has been predicting the Democratic primary would finish in this order: Pell first, Raimondo second, Taveras third. “People thought I was crazy,” he said.

But he said early polls only reflected name recognition and support for Raimondo and Taveras was soft. “As someone who has done this for 34 years now, I saw there was no breakout candidate — no Hillary Clinton running for president with 60 to 70 percent of the primary electorate with her,” he said.

Walsh said some Democrats got behind Taveras because they saw that as the only way to stop Raimondo, but he argued that it’s time to rethink that assumption. “If you love Angel, stick with him, but the core folks who represent the values of the Democratic Party see that Clay Pell is their candidate,” he said.

In 2010, NEA backed Governor Chafee because he was “the closest to our ideals of all the candidates,” Walsh said, “and obviously there have been differences that have manifested themselves.” But now, the teachers union is endorsing Pell, he said, “and Clay is a much better fit.”

As for Pell’s campaign spending, Walsh said, “Similar to his grandfather (the late U.S. Sen. Claiborne Pell), he had a lot of choices in life on what to do with his wealth, and he is choosing to apply it to a passion for public service. What’s better than that? And it allows him not to take money from PACs and lobbyists.”

But Keefe said that claim rings hollow when Pell is receiving so much support from the NEA. “They have a political machine,” he said. “They are spending a tremendous amount of energy to get him elected.”

Keefe contended that the Taveras ad is not “totally negative” because it’s based on facts that Pell has not refuted. “He has no political experience, he has not been a mayor of a major city, and he has not had to negotiate major problems like Taveras had to deal with in Providence,” he said.

But Pell responded with an ad that urged voters to “reject the old politics of attack and innuendo.” He said his grandfather taught him that “campaigns shouldn’t be about tearing people apart, but about ideas and making a difference.”

And Israel, the RIC professor, said the Taveras ad features a hallmark of a “stereotypically negative ad” — “the Wizard of Oz approach” in which you show the bad (Pell) in black and white and then you show the good (Taveras) in vivid color.

In any case, I’m looking forward to some fresh polling data to indicate which Democrat stands the best chance of making it over the rainbow — and into the general election.

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