The cost of crime and criminality: evidence from Colombian case

Abstract:

One recurrent debate in the literature on crime control is whether increasing the probability of punishment is a more effective deterrent than an increase in the severity of the sanction. From an empirical stance, the results have been mixed, yielding ambiguous conclusions. The purpose of this paper is, therefore, to fill this gap in the literature, particularly for the Colombian case. To do this, this work uses a natural policy experiment to estimate how changes in the “costs” associated with criminal activity may influence individuals’ decisions to commit a crime. More specifically, through the use of a difference-in-difference approach, this work compares changes in criminal rates before and after introduction of the new Adversarial System of Criminal Justice in Colombia. The results suggest that the individuals are more sensitive to changes in the probability of received a punishment than to a variation in the magnitude of the sanction.