Labor claims Queensland seat of Griffith

Former prime minister Kevin Rudd has heaped praise on his likely successor in Griffith, as it was revealed internal Labor Party polling had the Liberal National Party headed for victory two weeks out of Saturday’s poll.

With Labor’s Terri Butler leading the LNP’s Bill Glasson 52.33 to 47.67 per cent on the two-party preferred count with just one booth yet to report back, Griffith looks likely to remain a Labor seat.

However, with counting on Saturday night showing a small swing away from the Labor Party, Dr Glasson and the LNP refused to concede defeat.

Griffith byelection February 8, 2014: in pictures

Griffith voters head to the ballot box to select a replacement for former Labor prime minister Kevin Rudd who quit politics. Photo: Harrison Saragossi

“It was always a tough fight and I’m really confident, based on the booth results I’ve seen so far, that Labor will retain Griffith.”

Dr Glasson, an ophthalmologist who once served as president of the Australian Medical Association, was not ready to congratulate Ms Butler on Saturday night.

‘‘We’re not conceding tonight but obviously it’s going to be difficult to get across the line,’’ Dr Glasson told his supporters, flanked by Queensland Premier Campbell Newman and federal Attorney-General George Brandis.

‘‘Can I suggest that the figures you currently see on the screen I believe will narrow, but we won’t know I believe for a number of days where that will sit.’’

Mr Brandis said, regardless of the end result, the swing from the Labor Party was a loss for Opposition Leader Bill Shorten.

“It is almost unheard of for there to be a swing against an opposition at a byelection and, as far as we can tell, it has only ever happened three times in Australian history,” he said.

But it could have been worse for the Labor Party.

According to internal Labor polling, conducted two weeks prior to Saturday’s poll, Dr Glasson had a nine-point primary vote lead over Ms Butler, 47 to 38 per cent.

That narrowed to a 51 to 49 per cent victory to the LNP on a two party preferred status.

With just 71.8 per cent of the electorate’s votes counted after all booths had reported back, voter turnout appeared to be low.

Australian Electoral Commission spokesman Phil Diak said the turnout would not be known until all the counting had been completed, including pre-polls and postal ballots.

"That includes declaration votes that will be dealt with next week and postal votes coming in up to the Friday after next," he said.

"But the historical trend is for byelection turnout to be lower."

- with Nick Wiggins

230 comments

Interesting. Throughout the campaign, Glasson says that the byelection is not about Bill Shorten or Prime Minister Abbott, but about himself and Butler. But now after election day, Brandis comments that it is a loss for Shorten. Obviously someone didn't get the memo.

As to Labor turning around the vote from 51 percent win for the Coalition to a 52.3 percent win for Labor, I'd like to think that's due to Queensland recognition of the importance of the Barrier Reef, something that the Government doesn't seem to fully appreciate.

That all said, best wishes and good luck to both Dr Glasson and the presumptive member for Griffith Terri Butler. I haven't heard a single negative thing about either of them throughout the whole byelection ordeal. It has been refreshing.

Commenter

Hush

Location

Wollongong

Date and time

February 08, 2014, 9:06PM

well done Ms Butler.

Commenter

harry

Location

melbourne

Date and time

February 08, 2014, 9:47PM

I think the by-election was about policies. The voters or Griffith said no to the LNP's plan to end bulk billing and introduce upfront charges to see a doctor. They said yes to the ALP's plan for fast internet.

They said no to the LNP minister for the environment asking UNESCO to remove Australian forests from world heritage listing (the only government and only environment minister to ever ask for world heritage removal).

The last election was about personalities the next election is going to be about policies.

Commenter

TJ Ryan

Location

Queensland

Date and time

February 08, 2014, 9:57PM

Rudd won the seat with 53% of the vote in September. The swing was against ALP on both primary and 2PP.

The ALP campaigned heavily on Bill Shorten being in the electorate far more then Abbott and that is was a referendum on the Abbott government, Well the ALP just lost that referendum.

Commenter

andie

Date and time

February 08, 2014, 10:38PM

I think it has more to do with the phone robot that does the poll.

The only people who can be bothered with it are the die hard Lib voters, so they've been over represented in the numbers.

These Barrier Reef destroyers are very quickly losing traction in QLD.

Commenter

sarajane

Location

melbourne

Date and time

February 09, 2014, 12:09AM

Perhaps I am too sceptical. Has Glasson ever been serious about getting to Canberra? Taking on Kevin Rudd was never going to succeed. Against a new ALP candidate when Abbott was losing electorate support was also impossible no matter what loss due to Rudd's departure might have been with the initial margin.

To me. Glasson has been CYNICALLY using these 2 elections (general and by-election) as way to drum up his reputation to go into QLD state parliament. He wants to do a Newman by waiting for Newman to fall further and be given a safe seat in QLD NLP and dictate NLP that way.

But, Glasson is a FAILURE twice already. Howard's opponent was no where as high profile as Glasson himself against Rudd. Against an unknown, Glasson certainly made himself look a fool.

Regarding Glasson, the space to watch is QLD NLP leadership in the next couple of years...

Glasson vs Newman........

Commenter

JJ

Location

Hornsby

Date and time

February 09, 2014, 2:17AM

A small swing to Glassen in the primary vote, but where did the 3.4% Palmer vote go. I would have thought he would have picked up at least 50% of that. Not a great result for Abbott despite what their spin doctors will tell you. Well done Terri. You have held the Labor vote well.

Commenter

Truth Hurtz

Date and time

February 09, 2014, 3:46AM

Hush, well put - they are both quality candidates.As well, each has admiration for the other - and treats their opponent with respect. So, there we are - it can happen.Our Federal Parliament would be better for their presence.

Commenter

Howe Synnott

Location

Sydney

Date and time

February 09, 2014, 3:49AM

The high tide mark of the Abbottross govt has been reached. The slide back has begun.

Voters have come to realise that he is just a slogan in a suit. No vision or substance - a fairly basic unit who rose well beyond his capabilities.

Hopefully, the GBR was one of the concerns that motivated voters, because the govt certainly couldn't care less. Abbott is quite comfortable with it being degraded for the sake of profits.

Commenter

ergo

Date and time

February 09, 2014, 3:59AM

@Hush: George (Bookcase) Brandis hasn't been doing his reading. All bluster no substance.

A win in Griffith was always going to be a big plus for either party. Two first class candidates fought it out in a classic election battle with Bill Glasson having the benefit of a higher profile due to his very recent campaign against Rudd. Terri Miller faced with a much lower profile finished up winning due to an electorate fully aware that a win for Glasson would have been seen as an endorsement of Abbott's negative policy agenda.