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The Great Arbitration Thread of 2009-2010

We're basically past the trade deadline, as I doubt any of our arbitration players go during the waiver period, so we pretty much know what we have going into next year. At this point, stats are pretty locked in and it'll take a really abysmal/amazing performance to get them drastically off their season averages and seriously effect an expected arbitration total.

Joe Crede (5th year salary $4.94 M, 6th year $5.1 M). Came off injury from 07-08 so he got a nominal upgrade. He had a .828 OPS in year 4, which warranted him getting up to the $5 million range in year 5.

Casey Blake (5th year $3.75, 6th year $6.1). Blake had a .777 OPS in year 5, which lead to that salary in year 6. Cantu is going to match Blake’s year in a worst case scenario, probably get over it. This

Chad Tracy is making $5.75 this year (including buyout). He just sucks.

Bill Hall is going to make $6.8. But he also has the added positional flexibility, making him a ‘maybe’ comp, but we don’t have much to look for.

Longoria is going to make $6 million, in year 6. Wow. Zimmerman $8.9. Wright $10.

Some 1B for food for though. A. Gonzalez $5.5, Laroche and Overbay each $7, Pena $8. Youk $9. Morneau $10.6. Just not good comps here.

Alright, so that’s a good baseline. Crede did nothing in 2007, and got over $5. Blake did OK, and got over $6. Blake also had a $2.25M jump which is 60% of his previous contract value. The Tracy comp sucks for the Marlins. Cantu has to go above him based on his last two year, and immediate year, performance. So does he get to Blake? Depending on where his season line this year ends will dictate that question. The combination of not always at 3B may slot him a little higher as it seems 1B make more than 3B (or maybe they are just better, which is likely), but Cantu’s horrific defense could be a tie breaker and slot it down.

Post 2008, Greinke signed a 4/$38 extension, $3.75-$7.25-$13.50-$13.5 (signed after year 4)

So where do we begin. Greinke is spot on from years 3/4. This is the slot, we just have to value how much more is JJ than Greinke. JJ has an enormous “loss” advantage, a bit of whip, and probably a quarter to a half run less era. He also made the all-star team in 2009. JJ is clearly going to be slotted above Greinke off performance, and because of inflation.

Cole Hamels (a Super2), signed a contract for years 3-4-5 for $4.35, $6.65, and $.9.5 million. The $9.5 is technically his year 5 salary so that isn’t comparable to JJ, but that $6.65 certainly marks the HIGH. Hamels was coming off a 227 IP, 14-10, 3.09 era, 1.08 whip, 196 K season. That is certainly very comparable to what Johnson is doing right now. Hamels signed the deal after year 2.

So the question now is, what’s JJ’s arbitration status for next year. What is JJ’s longterm contract status for next year. Each I think have very, very, different, responses.

Arbitration

At this point, it is clear Johnson is going to murder people all year. When I did this before, I was assuming a back to earth period where JJ’s era would shoot back to “good not amazing” levels of 3.6-3.8, the whip climbs over 1.20, etc. But JJ has decided he’s going to be a legitimate # 1 SP. Great, awesome. Despite the fact his Year3 innings are low and Greinke is such an amazing comp for all the reasons where we’d hope he’d only slot above him maybe a million bucks to the “Wainwright” level of compensation, we have the new Lester and Hamels contracts to deal with. JJ has to go above Lester in arbitration. He’s simply better than him and the Marlins are going to get slammed if they try and argue a low 3 era / 1.15 whip / 180 K JJ, is lower than a (projecting) 3.75 / 1.30 / 200 K Lester. There’s just no way an arbitration panel is going to buy that, even if you want to argue AL/NL, etc. Additionally, Lester is a bad comp for JJ because the 5th year contract price is LOWER than what the ‘free market’ would give because the Red Sox bought this year 3 years in advance. Jon Lester arguing a contract in three years is a higher value than him signing one right now. So suffice to say, if the Marlins are insane and don’t offer JJ a 4-5 year deal (see below), they are going to get slammed. I don’t know if JJ can get up to Hamels, who has been healthy and won the World Series, but it’s going to be. An additional problem would be if King Felix or Verlander randomly have their arbitration hearing before Johnson’s, or sign new deals. They would each get to Hamels levels easily. Making the case even harder for the Marlins.

So the Arbitration Projection.

Low - $4.75 million. Wainwrightish, and JJ is hurt by his lack of innings in 2008.
Medium - $5.8 million. Lesterish, and JJ because the top non-Super2 slot for 5th year players. (not including Verlander or Felix really jumping here, which is possible)
High - $6.75. Hamelsish, and JJ becomes the new slot because he is that awesome and general inflation

I think the Marlins strategy would be a low 5 and arguing everyone but Hamels. I think if JJ trys to go huge with Hamels, he’ll get shot down for the lack of innings in year 3. Those innings won’t have a major effect on his figure, but they are still there to tip the scale. If the Marlins try to lowball this, like they did with Uggla last year, they are going to lose. But, I think discussing arbitration strategy is foolish. JJ needs the contract. And he needs it now.

Contract

So you don’t have to scroll up, Greinke signed a 4/$38 extension, $3.75-$7.25-$13.50-$13.5 (4/$38). Lester is making (years 5-8, including option) $5.75-$7.6-$11.6, $13 (4/$37). So we have a nice baseline for top young starters here. One, who has the same innings pitched track JJ does, and the other bought out years in advance. JJ has to be slotted above this. Forgot Wainwright, who is $4.6-$6.5-$9-$12 (4/$32). Nice deal for the Cards.

So after the blah blah back and forth with JJ wanting a $70 million deal and the Marlins wanting to give him $38.01 million, I think this is reasonable.

That seems about right. JJ will either be 29 or 30 at the end of this deal, meaning he is due another huge payday in his career. Which is very important and why he’d never sign a 7 year deal. Not that we would want to either, but just saying.

Overall. I find it imperative we sign JJ to a 4-5 year contract similar to the above. Not just because arbitration is scary, but because we don’t have to sign anyone else, and JJ is simply a cornerstone player you build around. Also from JJ’s perspective, he still is coming off the major arm surgery. Banking $5-6 million in arbitration would be nice, but that’s not “settle down forever” money. Getting a $40-50 million dollar contract is “locked up for life.” The time is now for both parties for the deal. Make it happen.

So regardless of a 70 OPS drop, once you make a lot, you make a lot and will get a significant pay raise. Granted Atkins still had very close HR/RBI/AB totals, but Uggla is going to get “close” (HR, only a handful less RBIs, less than 20 less Runs, a lot less K), to his 2008 rates even if that OPS is well off a .874. So anyway you look at it, Uggla is not going up $1-2 million. Uggla’s going to go up $3-4.

Alright so we get the idea. Uggla is already over nearly all of them. This is easy. Atkins went down in performance, got a little less than a $3 million raise. Uggla’s performance is basically the same decline, but he’s still going to be paid.

Low - $7.4. Utleyish. Marlins try to be cute and slot him below him, and lose again. They did this in 2009 with a $4.4 million-$5.3 million gap (Utley made $4.5 in year 4, so there whole argument was "he's not as good as Utley." Doesn't work, as Utley had a contract with lower figures upfront. Dummies).
Medium - $8 million. This is an Atkinsish $2.7 raise, and very realistic.
High - $8.75. Uggla’s agent really try to push slot but bit off more than they can chew.

Not perfect, but I want to use Rios because of the defensive factor to nip that in the butt right from the start. Cody obviously is killing it with the glove, so I wanted to at least have a similar offensive performer (OPS/HR wise) on the list. Also, because Rios $2.5 in year 4 is very similar to Ross $2.2

Year 5s
Teahen - $3.5. Had a .715 OPS. Cody’s over this.
Cuddyer - $3.75. Made $1.4 in year 4,significantly lower than Cody. Had .867 OPS year 4. This is a $2.5ish jump, so it shows how much you can go up. This is similar to Atkins, etc, when it comes to performance jumps.
Sizemore - $4.6
Granderson - $5.5
Hawpe - $5.5 (made $3.9 in year 4, significantly higher than Cody)
Braun - $6 (incentives could push up)
Markakis - $6.75 (made $3 in year 4)

I do not think this one is complicated. Cody is having a nice, non-breakout huge Cuddyer like season, so he’s due for a decent raise. He shouldn’t get as much of a raise as Cuddyer, but it should be close because of inflation. The rest of the star outfielders, Cody has no shot at.

Low $3.5. Teahen, and Cody’s ‘lower’ AB in 2008 hurt him. Very doubtful.
Medium $4.2. Gets a $2 million raise. Not quite the $2.5+ raise Atkins/Cuddyer and others have gotten, but enough to make a big dent in his salary.
High - None. He’s not getting in sniffing distance of Sizemore. No upside here.

sad to see Cantu that high. I thought he'd only be in the 4.5-5m range. But ditching cody and uggla should still allow a spot for him a third. god what are we going to do about third lol.

Not sure how a MLB contract works for a minor league player, where the player does not become arb eligible by the end of it. Verlander is the only comp I can think of, but he qualified for arb by the end of the deal. Any help here, would be appreciated

Based off Japanese contracts, I would the player would make the minimum (or, whatever the club deems, anyway). Since when a JP player signs a contract for less than 3 years, there's an clause so that at the end of the year, that player become a free agent.

That's an interesting thing about his contract though that I never noticed.

Ricky is going to be weird. Ace type year 2008, ace type half season, worst pitcher ever half season. This is going to go to an arbitrator for sure. I can’t see the Marlins offering him anything based on the horrible year, and I’d do the same thing, and Ricky’s agent is going to be “45 of 60 starts have been ace quality.” This one is probably the most volatile. Even more volatile than JJ. Alright so.

So these are all over the place. Notice these are all losing pitchers, the best one (whip right?) makes the least money. Why? Because Robertson and Blanton started higher off on the money in year 4 because they threw more innings in years 2 and 3. So the arm surgery is going to hurt Ricky here a bit just because he is starting lower than all of them, at $2.4.

But Ricky is better than all of them. He has the best overall season in 2008. He has been ace like half of this year. His first half will certainly knock him down so he doesn’t drop a $3 million raise into the mid $5 million range, but he certainly has to be above the $1 million Robertson got, and probably a little over Bush’s $1.5 raise because he’s likely going to have more wins, similar era, ton more K, and an overall “better career” rating to tip the scale. Will he get a $2+ million raise? That’ll be interesting and where the aforementioned arbitration battle will concern.

Low - $4. This is between a Bush/Blanton raise.
Medium - $4.5. This is almost doubling his salary, and over the Blanton raise in dollar value. He gets this level because he’s better than Blanton, so despite starting lower on the pay scale than Joe, he gets the same dollar value moving up. This is of course, assuming the final line and Ricky really needs to be awesome to lower his era/etc. this low. If not, it will go closer to Bush. But I’m working under the assumption Ricky is a beast over his final 10 starts.
High - $5. Inflation really drives it up. Find it unlikely.
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Jeremy Hermida
2007 - .870 OPS
2008 - 142 G, 502 AB, 74 R, 17 HR, 61 RBI, .249/.323/.406 (.729) / 4th year salary $2.3
2009 - 103 G, 363 AB, 39 R, 11 HR, 41 RBI, .253/.337/.383 (.720)
Reasonable Season Line Expectation - 145 G, 525 AB, 55 R, 16 HR, 60 RBI, .260/.340/.400 (.740)

Mark Teahen (5th year $3.5). Was coming off a really bad .715 OPS full season in year four. i.e., exactly what Hermida is doing now. A really bad fourth year.

This is a great comp, and I don’t think looking at others really matters. You can see “higher” comps looking at Cody, and I think it’s safe to say Hermida is not going to do that. So Teahen had 572 AB, 66 R, 15 HR, 59 RBI, and a .715 OPS, made the same money as Hermida made in year 4, and got a $1.2 million raise.

Hermida is basically doing that. This is going to be quick and dirty.

Low - $3. They bench him the rest of the year and doesn’t get the AB
Medium - $3.5. They play him, and he does exactly what he’s been doing
High - $4. He OPS’s .800+ and is totally sweet the rest of the year, to really bump the OPS R/RBI/HR points up significantly into the 75 R/RBI, 20 HR, .780+ OPS range. Very doubtful, but I’ll come back to this if Hermida decides to crush a lot.
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Originally Posted by nny

sad to see Cantu that high. I thought he'd only be in the 4.5-5m range. But ditching cody and uggla should still allow a spot for him a third. god what are we going to do about third lol.

Based off Japanese contracts, I would the player would make the minimum (or, whatever the club deems, anyway). Since when a JP player signs a contract for less than 3 years, there's an clause so that at the end of the year, that player become a free agent.

That's an interesting thing about his contract though that I never noticed.

There is really not much here. These type of players are not retained by clubs through arbitration, and are cut loose into street free agents. Best I can find.

Endy Chavez - $1.7 year 4, $1.8 year 5
Jamey Carroll -$.7k year 4, $1.7 year 5
David Eckstein - $2.25 both year 4 and 5. (Had a lot more playing time, this is the ‘high’)
Nick Punto - $.69k year 4, $1.7 year 5
Aaron Miles - $1 year 4, $1.4 year 5 (year 5 was a non-tender resign, so prob worth more via arbitration. Miles was playing about 400 AB a season, with a high .600 OPS just like AA’s 2008 season.

As we saw with Joe Crede above, missing a whole year still gets you a nominal raise. If Amezaga was healthy, we’d expect a raise to the $1.75 level which Chavez, Carroll, and Punto all got too as utility players. But since he’s been hurt, we don’t even need to go there.

Thing with Paulino is, he played A LOT more in the years leading up to this than Torrealba, so those primary starting years with Pittsburgh are probably going to count for something. Not much because the last two seasons Paulino has clearly fallen into backup territory, but it should be a little bump.

Apparently John Patterson is out of the contract system, but if I remember correctly after his ace like 2005 season with the Nationals (31 G, 198 IP, 3.13 era, 1.19 whip, 185K), he got $1.8 million. 2002-2004, he made 32 starts. So about 63 starts. Anibal has had nowhere near this success in games player, or starts. So this represents the “high” for sure.

So I’m trying to think of other injured starters that had underachieving fourth year arbitration figures as a result?

So Anibal is around the same GS here and service time as JJ, has 3/4s a year up in ERA pretty much, not as good whip stats, and slightly less Ks. Johnson is a great comp for Anibal. He can’t go over Johnson no matter what, which is good for us. But as we saw with stuff like Francouer making more money than Hermida, despite less stats, this season, the amount of games player factor is pretty strong in determining these. Anibal is going to go up similarly as a result. Mitre on the other hand, has a lot more playing time, but it’s his performance that really shot him down. Anibal has a slightly better career performance, but not as much playing time. So Mitre is also a good comp for the Marlins.

Low - $900,000. Lack of playing time and brutal 2007-2009 really hurt him. He does not come back this year.
Medium - $1,000,000. His career numbers are better than Mitre, but he’s played in 30 less games. Comes back and throws a few starts.
High - $1,250,000. His better stats make up the gap to Mitre’s more playing time. He’s going to need to throw at least 8-9 non horrible starts this year.

CJ Wilson in 2008 - 24 S, 6.02 era, 1.64 whip, and the two years prior very solid 115 IP of work at a 3.5 era, 1.30 whip, 22 H, etc. Career wise, CJ pitched 2005-2008 in 184 G, mid 4 era, 1.40+ whip, 24 S, 27 H, and around 170 K.This kind of looks like Lindstrom don’t it. Like, exactly. Except Lindstrom has better career ERA rates (ballpark factor, but I don’t know if arbiters will care for that argument), and more holds which are becoming slightly more ‘sexier’ as agents find ways to get middler relievers paid.

To show how dramatic these save stats are, look at Heath Bell, unquestionable fucking awesome. He is coming off back to back season which combine into 175 IP, a 1.10 whip, a low 3 era, an absurd 57 holds, 2 Saves, and 173 K. He makes less than CJ Wilson, because CJ Wilson has 20 more saves. *YIKES*

Basically, going to stop with Lindstrom right here, and I am very surprised at where I am projecting this number. Based on CJ Wilson, Lindstrom is going to get paid. He has a better overall resume than CJ. The only thing CJ has is, more saves in year 3. This projection is based on Lindstrom getting 5-6 more saves, but overall isn’t probably going to change much if he doesn’t get him. The change would move from the medium to the low.

Lindstrom

Low - $1.65 million. He does not get any saves the rest of the year
Medium - $1.85 million. He gets CJ’s contract and his better career rates make up the gap of not getting more saves in year 3
High - $2 million. Lindstrom is balls awesome the rest of the year and gets more saves.

So let’s move down to Leo now. Who is getting saves to. He is 1/2 the saves of everyone else, low teens.

Wheeler in 2006 had a 9 S/25 H year, and career wise had 14 saves entering arbitration. 4th year arbitration got him $930K, and he had really wicked back to back 70 IP, 2.50 era, 1.05 whipish seasons leading up to that. RP are insane! I love how CJ Wilson makes twice the money as Wheeler because he got 15 more saves. So, Leo does not have Wheeler’s resume, but he may end the year with some more saves if the Marlins opt to pitch him as closer versus Lindstrom. Let’s end Leo here, and assuming no horrific era explosion

I like Thornton here, for similar career rates (3.79, 1.35 whip, tons of holds, Under 5 Saves pre year 4), the lefty factor, and games played. Pinto has played a lot for a RP. He’s not as good as Thornton from the whip factor, so he probably won’t get all the way to him, but you can see the range of all of these guys falling into the 700-850k range, so that seems safe for pinto.

Low - $750k. Whip hurts him
Medium - $850k. All the games played add up to one of the higher RP comps.
High - None.

So now we’re at Proctor. He made $1.15 in 2008, coming off 180 IP and an absurd 135 games over 2006-2007. All good rates, around a 3.50 era, 1.30 whip, 45 holds, a save, etc. Really nice workhouse reliever, and it shows you that ‘saves’ aren’t determinative because he got over Wheeler’s 9 saves, with an extra 50 innings of work or so. Then in 2009, he was non-tendered because he sucked, and was surely going to get a bump to the $2-2.25 million range. Marlins signed him for $750k.

I cannot think of any awesome RP for two years, crappy relief pitcher for 1 year, injured for entire next season, and then 6th year arbitration eligible RP comp. If you can, awesome. So I’m just going to guesstimate looking at some of those 6th year salaries (Guerrier and Frasor $1.4, Downs $2.2, Wheeler $2.8), where Proctor would land. Career good, recent two years bad. He’d at least get over $1 million. Maybe even a bit higher. But I’m going to just wild guess about $1.2 million. Making him a clear DFA for this organization.
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Here is a schedule for the future of other players:

Arbitration Eligibility for 2013
4th Year - Maybin, G. Sanchez, West, Tucker, and anyone else currently in the minors that plays most of the 2010 season in the bigs, and 2011-2012 with the club.
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Major League Minimim 2010-2011 is $400,000 + cost of living increase. So I'd just say $405,000 for 2010, $410,000 for estimating purposes.
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So the keeping absolutely everybody team (except FA):

$53,835,000
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The getting rid of Uggla, Hermida, Anibal, Proctor, Paulino, and Amezaga team, and using Coghlan, Morrison, West, Badenhop, Hayes, and De Aza/Raynor as their replacements:

$40,295,000 < - Pretty reasonable, and a lot of money to burn with Cantu and Ross still on the team
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Looking at that team, and seeing how horrible the bench is, I think the best course of action would probably be to trade Cantu for salary relief, and between one of the other guys (Uggla, Hermida, Anibal) being moved, acquire more help at 3B. Then use saved money to drastically upgrade the Hayes and De Aza/Raynor spots on the bench with legit veterans costing $1-2 million each. The team would be putting a lot of faith into Maybin, Morrison, Coghlan, G. Sanchez, and new and presumably young 3B to hit right away, but the staff is great and the minors pretty deep with Tucker, Wood, Leroux, Parcell, Winters, Trahern, Sanabia, Cishek, Ceda, Owens, and others lurking in AA/AAA, and Stanton, Dominguez, Cousins, and Petersen in AA.

Or they could just buy a better bench and go to the low $40 millions. And still have the lowest payroll in baseball.

well also have to remember that buying a bench bat would also mean minus the 400k to raynor. So if they hand out a 1 mil contract to Ross Gload v2.0, and then just keep Paulino (cuz face it, not really going to be any FA around 1 mil that'll be upgrade), you're looking at ~+1.3 mil which basically puts them at exactly 40 mil.

Ross Gload actually has a $2.6 million option for next year. I find it highly unlikely the Marlins keep him for that. And the basic MLB rules are, once they decline that option they can't sign him till May right?

The FA list looks horrible. I'd say maybe Torrealba for a backup catcher. They tried before, he's an upgrade defensively, and he hits lefties harder than righties. I guess it all depends on price.

Have to see which arb guys they choose to keep. If they get rid of Ross and Cantu as well as the other guys detailed, they will have a bunch of money to spend on nominal free agents. Not including all the potential roster fillers they get back by moving the 5-7 players.

After 2010 though, I think Cantu would easily be a B, more than likely an A if he starts the entire year. Might be a reason as to keep him at 3B for the year. He'd have basically ended up costing the Marlins $10 million for 2008-2010 ($500k, $3.5, estimated $6), and would bring back two first round picks.

One hell of a "FA" signing if that's what it comes down to.

I really like that "$41 million" team above if they can fix the backup catcher and backup OF spot with legit veterans.

Ross Gload actually has a $2.6 million option for next year. I find it highly unlikely the Marlins keep him for that. And the basic MLB rules are, once they decline that option they can't sign him till May right?

I meant the Ross Gload 2.0 as in whatever LH 1B/LF/RF guy is on the market. Eric Hinske, Frank Cat, Greg Norton, Daryle Ward...Hinske make me north of a mil but I really doubt the rest do.

I doubt we offer NJ arbitration anyway so I wouldn't worry too much about it.

We worry about guys accepting in the first place, and then you have consider the fact that the market crashed for his kind of player last season and a lot of people were talking about guys should have accepted arbitration last offseason so I'm sure guys are gonna do it more this offseason.

I really like the lineup. If Hanley does his normal .950, Cantu/Ross their normal .800, Coghlan repeats his .750+ and Baker his .775+, all we have to do is replace Uggla (.800), Bonifacio (.600), Hermida (.725), and some Nick Johnson at let's say an .850 OPS. That's averaging into .750-.775, and I feel pretty confident a collection of Maybin, Morrison, G. Sanchez, and Carroll can do that cumulatively. Offense isn't going to take a hit at all, and is going to explode in 2 years when they get some experience and Stanton and Dominguez into the mix.

"Miller falls into a fairly rare category because his first pro contract was a Major League deal. You're right that he won't have the service time to qualify for arbitration this off-season, and he's still under club control. However, baseball's labor deal with the union prevents a club from cutting a player's salary by more than 20 percent.

The best recent example is Delmon Young of the Twins. After being drafted, he signed a Major League deal for 2004-08, including a $3.7 million signing bonus and a 2008 salary of $700,000. For purposes of calculating annual earnings, MLB spreads the signing bonus over the life of the deal, so Young's 2008 earnings were the $700,000 salary plus a $740,000 share of his bonus, for a total of $1.44 million. His contract expired after the 2008 season, but he didn't have enough ML service to qualify for arbitration. The Twins controlled his rights and chose to cut his salary the full 20 percent allowed. So he got a one-year deal for 2009 at $1.152 million, or 80 percent of his 2008 earnings.

If Florida does the same with Miller, he stands to get $1.97 million in 2010, which would be 80 percent of his 2009 earnings of $2,462,500 ($1.575 million salary and $887,500 share of his signing bonus)."

Just going to slot him for $2 million. What I expected entering this, and now totally confirmed.
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I think I've fixed every post in this thread to reflect the extra $1.5+ million this difference makes.

Well if we offer him 80% that'd mean he'd make 1.25 (1.575 this season).

Read the post above.

"For purposes of calculating annual earnings, MLB spreads the signing bonus over the life of the deal"

Miller had a $3.55 bonus over 4 years. Divide that by 4, add $1.575, multiple by 80%, and it's a perfect $1.97 million. I'm taking the liberty of rounding it up to 2 for simplicity.
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Maybe a Mod rename this 2010 salary projections? As it's a bit more than just arbitration now.