Thursday, July 10, 2008

Carlos Gomez versus Jacoby Ellsbury: A Statistical Comparison

at the plate:

pa

xbh%

k%

bb%

avg

obp

slg

isop

wpa

C. Gomez

377

24.2%

23.6%

3.7%

.266

.301

.370

.104

-1.37

J. Ellsbury

339

22.5%

14.7%

9.4%

.268

.341

.375

.107

0.24

The basic slashes of the two speedy centerfielders are comparable, outside the on-base percentage (obp). In terms of average and slugging, Ellsbury holds a slight edge over Gomez however the Red Sox outfielder owns Gomez when it comes to contact (15% vs 24% strikeout rate) and drawing walks (9% vs 4% walk rate). Nearly a quarter of Gomez's hits go for extra bases (24.2%) and Ellsbury has practically matched it (22.5%). Neither player's standard lines are very impressive. Both having batting averages barely north of the American League average (.264) while Gomez's on-base percentage is 31 points lower than the rest of the league (.332), Ellsbury has parlayed his plate discipline (9.4% bb%) into an on-base percentage nine points higher than the league average. This added ability of reaching base has led to a positive win probability added (wpa) for Ellsbury (0.24) as Gomez has detracted from the Twins with his negative contribution.

batted balls:

babip

infield hits

bunt hits

gb%

fb%

ld%

hr/fb%

pulled%

middle%

opposite%

C. Gomez

.340

13

21

41.9%

41.0%

17.0%

5.3%

46.2%

27.0%

26.6%

J. Ellsbury

.303

13

6

49.6%

27.2%

22.0%

7.2%

32.2%

31.8%

35.8%

What we can deduce from the batted balls comparison is that Gomez is riding a higher batting average on balls in play (babip) thanks to his ability to leg out bunt hits. 50% (24 out of 42) of the time that Gomez attempted to bunt for a hit, he reached first. Comparatively, Ellsbury carries a 75% bunt rate conversion (6 for 8). The difference is that Gomez has attempted 32 more bunt hits than Ellsbury. Subtract Gomez's 21 bunt hits (assuming that he fails to reach on those opportunities) and he would be carrying a brutal .204 average. Do the same for Ellsbury and he is sporting a poor but passable .245 average.

The American League average on line drives is .726/.721/.992. This is an occurrence that happens on 19% of balls in play. Understandably, the line drive is trajectory with the highest rate of success. Ellsbury is producing line drives 22% of the time compared to Gomez's 17%. Ellsbury holds a distinct advantage over Gomez in this department. Similarly, the fly ball is the least effective method to obtain a hit, something that happens 44% of the time in the American League. American League batters are hitting .215/.209/.512 when they do this. Like Willie Mays Hayes in Major League, Gomez pops up far too frequently for a lead-up, speed-based hitter as 41% of the time he unleashes a fly ball. Gomez is hitting .202/.202/.372 on his.

Directionally, Gomez is a pull-hitter. Nearly 50% of the time Gomez is yanking the pitch to the left side. This, indicated by his .406 average on balls in play, is his best route to getting a hit. Gomez's average when going back up the middle (.279) and to right (.230) are both lackluster. Ellsbury, on the other hand, is the definition of a spray-chart, peppering the field in an almost even distribution. He has the seen the most success hitting the ball back through the box (.346) but has also fared well pulling the ball to right (.305). The direction where he deposits most of his balls, opposite field, also has his lowest success rate (.264).

performance as a leadoff man:

pa

obp

team runs

team runs per inning when leading off

runs per inning by team when not leading off

difference

runs/rbi

C. Gomez

140

.286

91

.65

.53

+.12

23/2

J. Ellsbury

129

.326

88

.68

.54

+.14

29/4

Leading off not only happens at the start of the game but the subsequent appearance leading off each inning require a genuine table-setter. This statistic was tracked first in Bill James' Gold Mine and is updated on his website. His definition states that this shows "how well the player’s team scored when the player led off the inning, compared to how they scored when others led off innings. It also shows how well they scored when the player reached base leading off, and when he failed to reach base leading off." Certainly the ability to score runs per inning is heavily contingent of the quality of the following hitters in the order but it also is dependant on the speed and base path prowess that a player has. You can't average nearly a run an inning if you can't get the lead-off hitter to scamper around the bases. In 2007 the New York Mets Jose Reyes led the major in innings led of with 321 plate appearances. Under those circumstances, Reyes held a .330 on-base percentage yet the Mets only score .58 runs per inning when he was leading off. This was far from the 2007 leader, Jimmy Rollins, who led the majors with .85 runs per inning when he led off for the Phillies. In 140 occasions this season Carlos Gomez has led off an inning for the Twins resulting in 91 runs for the team in that time which equates to .65 runs per inning. Ellsbury holds an edge over Gomez in this department as well. In his 129 times leading off an inning, Ellsbury has scored 88 runs averaging .68 runs per inning. Once again, Ellsbury has bested Gomez as a lead-off hitter, producing .14 runs per inning more for the Red Sox on average a silver more than Gomez's .12 contribution to the Twins.

(Side Note: The sabermetric movement has been vocal for Joe Mauer's relocation to the lead-off spot. This provides the Twins best hitter and on-base guy with added plate appearances over the course of a 162 game season. Based on evidence, this might be beneficial to the Twins offense. In 56 plate appearances this season Mauer has led off the inning for the Twins. In that time, Mauer holds a .464 on-base percentage - a number that is substantially greater than Carlos Gomez's .286. When Mauer leds off the inning for the Twins, the team scores .68 runs.)

zone awareness:

pitches

pitches per pa

taken%

swung%

taken for ball%

taken for strike%

swung - in zone%

swung - ooz high%

swung - ooz low%

swung - ooz inside%

swung - ooz outside%

C. Gomez

1281

3.39

45%

55%

66%

34%

64%

8%

13%

3%

13%

J. Ellsbury

1240

3.65

58%

42%

64%

36%

75%

2%

6%

8%

9%

This is where the minutia, each pitch, explains the statistic provided above. There is an obvious correlation to these numbers and the aforementioned difference in their strikeout rates and walk rates but it could enlighten us to why Gomez is more of a fly ball/ground ball hitter and Ellsbury is more of a ground ball hitter. First, the two vary in their plate approach vastly. Gomez is more of a swinger (55%) while Ellsbury practices patience (58%). Oddly enough, even though Gomez is far more impatient than his Boston counterpart he has taken more pitches for balls than Ellsbury. Again, here is where another schism between the two players reside. Seldom does Ellsbury take a hack at a pitch that finds its way out of the zone. 75% of the balls Ellsbury has swung at have been inside this zone. This plate awareness is the reason behind 72% of Ellsbury's batted balls either being a ground ball or a line drive. Conversely 36% of the time Gomez has taken swings at pitches out of the zone. As you will note, he has swung at 13% of balls that have been low and 13% of balls that have been outside (there has to be some overlap to account for all of the low-and-away sliders that Gomez has swung at). The low pitch will undoubtedly led to ground balls or fly balls. Judging from Gomez's uppercut swing I would be inclined to believe that is why he is lofting more balls than driving them.

on the bases:

sb%

runs gained through sb

net bases gained*

C. Gomez

72%

0.28

+3

J. Ellsbury

83%

3.32

+28

*From BillJamesOnline.net encompassing opportunities to advance

from 1st to 3rd, 2nd to home and 1st to home and the time executed in addition to grounded into doubleplays.

Carlos Gomez has speed. That goes without saying. He has performed admirably on the turf where he has recorded 13 stolen bases, an 86% success rate on the artificial substances. Natural grass, however, might as well be a swimming pool for all the good it has done to his foot speed. Fifteen times Gomez has tried to swipe bases and only 8 times he has been successful (53%). His runs gained through his 21 stolen bases has barely amounted to a quarter of a run. All the running has done little for the Twins offense. Ellsbury has speed as well. As opposed to Gomez, Ellsbury has thrived on the crushed brick dirt, stealing 33 of his 35 runs outdoors. This movement has added 3.3 more runs for the Red Sox.

Furthermore, the BillJamesOnline.net has charted the amount of opportunities to go from 1st to 3rd, 2nd to home and 1st to home combined with the amount of doubleplays grounded into and stolen bases. They have found that Ellsbury has a great deal more bathpath awareness as he has netted 28 bases as Gomez has only attained 3 additional bases. Naturally, the age difference comes in to play but far too often I have heard that Gomez's base-running indiscretions are credited to his lack of professional experience. It should be noted that Gomez has played 114 more professional baseball games than Jacoby Ellsbury.

patrolling centerfield:

innings

range factor

revised zone rating

throwing errors

fielding error

kills

expected outs

outs made

plus/minus

mlb cf rank

C. Gomez

730

3.27

.939

4

2

2

262

270

+17

1

J. Ellsbury

299

2.50

.951

0

0

0

92

93

+3

13

Defense is the category in which Gomez outshines Ellsbury by a landslide. Currently under John Dewan's Fielding Bible Plus/Minus rankings, Gomez is the number one centerfielder in the major leagues. Ellsbury defensive talent has landed him at number 13. Gomez has an overzealous arm (a strong arm at that) has led to four throwing errors but has also erased two base runners at the same time. Base-runners have had 88 opportunities to take an extra base and only 49 (.557 pct) ran on Gomez's arm. The scouting reports highlight Gomez's arm which is why more runners do not attempt to take the extra base however, I question his accuracy at this juncture in his career. Nevertheless the two kills and the .557 advance percentage ranks Gomez's arm as 18th among centerfielders. Ellsbury has zero kills and has had 26 of 39 base-runners advance on him (a .667 advance percentage) which slots his arm as the 30th overall among centerfielders.

As indicated above in the base-running statistics, both outfielders have notable speed. This has manifested itself through covering added ground. Gomez's speed has given him a hefty range factor and has allowed him to track an additional 8 outs that were not expected to be converted. Ellsbury, in his fraction of time in center, has tracked down only one additional out.

About OtB

"Parker Hageman is the Michael Cuddyer of Twins bloggers -- not the flashiest guy out there, but a solid everyday player. Hageman produces spot-on analysis ... relying on in-depth stats and lots of charts. He takes a sober, performance-based view of players, letting others fall for a player's heart or his leadership skills in the clubhouse. Hageman is one of the four pillars holding up the Star Tribune's TwinsCentric blog."