Castor is right about the GOP being in trouble

DEVLIN

March 21, 2007|By Frank Devlin Special to The Morning Call - Freelance

Montgomery County District Attorney Bruce Castor certainly has caused quite a stir during his short but eventful campaign for Montgomery County commissioner.

He announced he was running by saying he was the county Republican Party's best hope of retaining control of the Board of Commissioners, something the GOP has enjoyed for more than 100 years.

Back when he announced, I thought his focus on saving the party could come back to hurt him in the general election, because all the party talk might alienate Democrats and independents. But the issue now, before he can worry about November, is winning the nomination. (And perhaps on his, and not the party's, terms. More on that later.)

As I said, he certainly has been causing quite a stir.

First was his statement that incumbent Republican Commissioner Chairman Thomas Jay Ellis is a liability because of a personal domestic dispute. (A protection from abuse order was eventually withdrawn.)

More recently, Castor has hammered away at the contract that Ellis, fellow Republican Commissioner James Matthews and Democratic Commissioner Ruth Damsker signed for the county with a lobbying firm that includes county Republican Chairman Ken Davis.

Castor said the apparent conflict of interest will be effective campaign fodder for the Democratic candidates, former U.S. Rep. Joe Hoeffel and Damsker, who now wants the county to end the contract and do its own lobbying.

Then there were Castor's initial statements after last week's endorsement meeting. They indicated that Castor, who, along with Matthews, won endorsement, might drop out of the race because his preferred running mate, Melissa Murphy Weber, did not.

After making all that fuss, now he might not run?

The latest, according to reporting by The Morning Call, is that he is staying in the race. But he hasn't said whether he'd campaign with Matthews or try to make a go of it with Weber.

You can take issue with the way Castor has done things so far. And some Republicans are. (Including Ellis. He also failed to win an endorsement and says he'll now drop out of the primary race.)

But to one observer, the underlying theme of Castor's campaign -- that the Republicans are in serious danger of losing control of the board of commissioners -- rings true.

"He's got his hands on the problem," G. Terry Madonna said to me last week "The Republicans have their backs against the wall. I think he's right about that."

Madonna, director of the Center for Politics and Public Affairs at Franklin & Marshall College, said Castor isn't devoting his energies to the detailed issues of the Republican race.

Instead, Madonna said, he's talking about larger issues, both political and demographic, that have been chipping away at the GOP's dominance in the Philadelphia suburbs. In past election years, he said, probably any of the Republican candidates running for commissioner would have been in good shape to win in the fall.

But things are changing. The areas of the county that used to swing between Republican and Democratic control have "arguably gone over to the Democrats," Madonna said. And Democratic presidential candidates have been winning the county. "Republicans are more moderate in Montgomery County than Democrats on social questions in every part of the state except for the Philadelphia area," he said.

Then there is "guilt by association" with an unpopular president. To top it all off, by recruiting a former congressman (and former county commissioner), the Democrats have "thrown the kitchen sink" at the Republicans.