November 01, 2005

Bill Frist Should Have Read The Next Hurrah

This afternoon the Senate Democrats, under the leadership of Harry Reid and Richard Durbin (with an assist from the most underrated member of the Senate, Carl Levin) seized control of the chamber and forced the Republicans to do some work. As Kagro X pointed out long ago, Harry Reid hasn't threatened to shut down the Senate if the Republicans launch the Nuclear Option, he's threatened to use extraordinary measures to make the Senate work on issues of the Democrats' choosing. It's worth taking a look at the immediate issue at hand in today's dust up, the issue on which the Senate Dems forced the Republicans to work. But we should also recognize that today's Senate actions took place amid a cluster of potentially monumental events, including the Libby indictment, the Alito nomination and the filibuster and launch of the Nuclear Option it may provoke, planning for dealing with a possible Avian Flu pandemic, recruitment and early positioning for next year's Congressional elections, and the ongoing battle between the parties to gain control of
news cycles, with the Democrats increasingly taking the offensive. The Democrats' maneuver in the Senate was a brilliant tactical move, and I suspect an important strategic move that will help shape the political environment for the next 12 months.

As DemFromCT reminded us this morning, "a
failed President doesn't get to set the agenda the way he likes."
If he did, we wouldn't have had days and weeks of anticipation of Fitzmas,
followed by a weekend of intense dicussion about the Libby indictment. 10
days ago, when the Bush "family" convened at Camp David, they were
surely devising a plan, to use the terminology Andy Card brought with him from
the auto industry, to "roll out" new initiatives and major
announcements right after the indictments in the hope of regaining control of the
media in furtherance of their agenda.

Maybe they didn't know 10 days ago that Miers would withdraw her nomination. But if the White House was trying to bury the indictments, bracketing it with Supreme Court announcements was a game attempt, which also had the virtue of getting the Miers withdrawal (caused by extremists in the President's own political base) out of the news damn fast. Then, on Tuesday, the plan probably reads, scare people with talk of Avian Flu (months later than the administration should have done something). It's probably in the White House's message calendar and talking points to try to use Avian Flu as a scary distraction (and like terrorism, one it won't do much to effectively address).

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Democrats accusing the ruling
Republicans of stalling tactics imposed a rare closed session
of the Senate on Tuesday to force the majority to complete a
probe on whether the Bush administration misused intelligence
before the Iraq War.

Republicans, angered that the maneuver was sprung on them
without warning, dismissed it as a stunt but agreed to form a
bipartisan task force to report by November 14 on how the
Intelligence Committee was progressing with its investigation.

Senate Republican leaders were livid about the tactic,
which drew public attention back to Iraq as President George W. Bush faced the fall-out from an indictment of a senior aide
related to the handling of pre-war intelligence.

"The United States Senate has been hijacked by the
Democratic leadership," Majority leader Bill Frist of Tennessee
said. "Never have I been slapped in the face with such an
affront to the leadership of this grand institution."

But Senate Democratic Leader Harry Reid of Nevada said what
he called Republican stalling on the issue had been "a slap in
the face for the American people."

It was a brilliant tactical move by the Democrats, with Reid getting in that extra jab by parrying Frist's narcissistic comment about a personal slap in the face with the comment about the Republicans delivering the real slap to the face of the American people. For tonight and tomorrow, Alito got pushed aside, Avian Flu wasn't the only big story, and the Dems took control of the news cycle.

But beyond the tactical level, this was an important strategic move. First, it will profoundly affect the bases of each party. If you don't think Democratic partisans are giddy over winning a political streetfight, just go over to Daily Kos and poke around the diaries and especially the comment threads; people are euphoric. And it will probably have a bit of a negative effect on the Republican partisan base. Look for plenty of kvetching about how Harry Reid is schooling hapless Bill Frist, and how the Senate Republicans can't control the chamber. One day after the Alito nomination, which is interpreted as Bush's caputulation to his conservative base, that can't be overlooked. After all, the Republicans will only want a fight if they think they can win, and fewer and fewer Republicans will believe Frist can ever lead them to a procedural victory. (I distinguish here between Republicans and conservatives; for many movement conservatives, winning isn't as important as keeping open the donation spigot, which is easier to do when there's a threat than when you actually succeed in delivering the goods.)

It's also important because it gives the momentum in the Senate to the Democrats. Sure, the Republicans have 55 seats, but they also have a weakened leader under serious investigation for insider trading, and about 10 caucus members either terrified of losing next November (Chaffee, Santorum) or angling for the 2008 GOP Presidential nomination. By contrast, Reid and Durbin only have Ben Nelson facing a serious threat in 2006, and the Presidential aspirants gain nothing by breaking ranks with the caucus as long as the caucus is sticking it to the Republicans as effectively as they did today. That makes future threats more credible.

Which leads to the Nuclear Option. Iraqgate and White House scandal is an easy subject on which to keep the Dems unified (as long as somebody is sitting on top of Joementum and keeping him away from microphones). [BTW, anyone notice Joementum has been remarkably silent for the last few months? Reid must have scared the hell out of him to keep him from mouthing off.] But the nuclear option may be a little more difficult. I could see Ben Nelson easily deserting the Dems, and it's harder to argue with him since he comes from one of the most Republican states in the country. And there are several Dems who could conceivably vote to confirm Alito, especially from the ranks of the Gang of Fourteen. But at this point, I find it easier to believe that Reid can hold his caucus together than that Frist can hold his. This is especially true with a greater likelihood that the Republicans could find themselves in a minority in 2007, and may wonder about the wisdom of getting rid of the filibuster just as they may need it. Furthermore, the Democratic threat to force uncomfortable votes and force work on issues the Republicans would rather ignore or suppress makes the cost of launching the Nuclear Option more tangible and believable today than it was yesterday.

Mark Schmitt thinks that today was a power shift, where a minority seizes control of the agenda from the majority. I think he's probably right. The Senate Democrats have shown they're not afraid to play hardball and that they can maintain unity. Expect Reid, Durbin and the Senate Democrats to maintain pressure on the Republicans to exploit the conflict between the White House's desire for secrecy and the Congressional Republican's impulse toward self-preservation.

Comments

Excellent analysis. The big deal to me on Alito is what the Maine ladies, and maybe, Chafee, does. (Don't anybody talk to me about spineless when Chafee's still in the Senate). I expect Nelson to bolt, but I expect Specter to play hardball, too, with super precedent questions to Alito.

But it feels to me like Frist got rolled, big time, today. When that happens, it makes the already restive troops even more restive.

Only problem is we need a few more (well, several) people willing to vote against Alito for separation of powers reasons. Not sure who'd they be (I fantasize about McCain, but ever since I voted for the conservative fucker, I've been delusional). In any case, we need to find a reason to get 4 more votes against Alito. And then they can have their upperdown.

"For tonight and tomorrow, Alito got pushed aside, Avian Flu wasn't the only big story, and the Dems took control of the news cycle."

Imagine my surprise when I tuned in Jim Lehrer on PBS to hear about the biggest story of the day, only to find -- no segment on it. Lead segment -- Margaret Warner interviewing Schumer and a GOPer on Alito . . .

Oregondave: I wonder if part of the problem was that PBS may have already set their schedule before the Senate Dems launched the move. Since PBS usually only does 3 or 4 involved pieces each day, the only way something starting in mid or late afternoon EST would be to make the news overview at the beginning of the show.

Oregondave: I wonder if part of the problem was that PBS may have already set their schedule before the Senate Dems launched the move.

That's probably right. They're not going to turn on a dime unless they really have to - especially on what used to be called a 'big news day' (Alito); particularly if they have a full slate of stories already ready to go (they don't have a big budget); and they see themselves as floating above it all anyway. They've made a virtue out of their small budget. Jim 'Lera' is boring as fuck. He doesn't even care his own self. Oh well.

I'm trying to keep the profanities out of my comments (just kidding), but the Newshour is Boring as Fuck, and has been ever since the departure of Robert McNeil; a fine, hard hitting interviewer. He revealed recently that the only reason he's Canadian is that his grandfather married the bosses daughter and robbed his own bank (in MA). Fled.

Another strategic deterrent effect: Frist has now caught a glimpse of Reid's ability to use the Senate rules in response to the Nuclear Option.

What's hilarious to me is that Reid might have figured out the Rove Grand Strategy at the same time Rove is having his possible last hurrah - coming back as farce, if you will: act like you have power. It's incredible how much you can get away with! I don't need any exhibit 'A'. Just look at the country. More and more bizzare, more and more arbitrary.

An analogy that struck me this morning: is Reid's bold move vaguely like Reagan's famous "I am PAYING for this microphone" moment? The import of that otherwise trivial sound-bite (essentially cribbed from Capra's State of the Union) was it countered a then-active feeling that Reagan was doddering/not up to the primary battle with Bush pere, let alone a general election. It was an act of assertion his campaign needed at that moment.

We've known for months the public has turned on Bush (and the GOP in general); that they're dying for a viable alternative. But one segment -- a chunk large enough to still swing an election -- remains on the fence for fear Dems are not up to the "daddy" demands of the job. This craving for forcefulness is what drew many to Dean, and has created the Hackett surge. If the Democratic party as a whole can associate itself with just such an aggressive tone, I believe the country will be ready to turn decisively in their direction (given that the sale has long been made on most major issues). Yesterday was a strong step forward.

Of course, that Reid's move has the added advantage of being substantively correct...and of issue significance. Is he the best Senate leader we've ever had? Was Daschle's defeat the luckiest thing ever happened to our side?

I think you're right on the forcefulness issue. Reid and Durbin don't come across as particularly soft or weak; they're sufficiently "bland" for much of America, but they're not afraid to get a little tough, and that can only help the Dem's image.

And as much as I'd like to have another vote in the Senate, it is one of those ironies that Bush et al went so hard after Daschle and ended up with a for more effective opposition under Reid. And not just any irony, but a delicious one.

Great post, DH. It pulls so many threads together. This whole incident just underscores the importance of objectivity I wrote about a month or so ago--the ability to step back, see clearly, assess a situation in terms of the overall goal one wants to pursue and not its impact on oneself, and patiently make strategic and tactical choices in an evolving environment that will take one to that overall goal.

Reid may never have read Max Weber's famous essay, but he understands the notion of objectivity and how essential it is to a politician who hopes to be successful. He understands how to use the opposition's weaknesses (ignorance of the rules, disdain for the intricacies of procedure, vanity) not only to tie them in knots, but to hang them up with those weaknesses exposed for all to see.

The fight over Alito isn't going to play out as a simple hearing/filibuster/nuclear option fight. The timetable won't be what Frist and the R's want. Other tough issues and fights with shifting coalitions will come into play, like torture, where Cheney and his dark lieutenants are on the wrong side of 90 Senators; like the budget, which impacts everyone up for reelection; like the war and the intel fiascos; like things we can't even anticipate, before there is ever a vote. And it is likely to be next year, the year of the midterms.

You are absolutely right that the spectacle of Frist being so flummoxed, as angry at the slap to himself as Gingrich was when Clinton wouldn't talk to him on the plane, so angry he had to draw attention to it, further exposing his vanity and weakness, has to give several Republican senators pause.

And Lott saying that perhaps Karl Rove isn't the ideal policy adviser for Bush just now was the perfect lagniappe.

This isn't a game for the shallow, no matter how smart they may be in other fields.

Mimikatz: you touched on something I didn't really talk about much in the post, what Steve Martin said was the key to comedy--Tiiiiming. tiMING. Time ing. I think one consideration for Reid was the timing, not just to screw up the Repubs' timing, but an awareness that yesterday's move might have been too damaging had it not come in the wake of the Libby indictment and Bush's plummiting poll numbers.