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State economies and the election

The real election battleground will be the local economy. Here's where each state is leaning, based on a number of different indicators.

Alabama

Alaska

Arizona

Arkansas

California

Colorado

Connecticut

District of Columbia

Delaware

Florida

Georgia

Hawaii

Idaho

Illinois

Indiana

Iowa

Kansas

Kentucky

Louisiana

Maine

Maryland

Massachusetts

Michigan

Minnesota

Mississippi

Missouri

Montana

Nebraska

Nevada

New Hampshire

New Jersey

New Mexico

New York

North Carolina

North Dakota

Ohio

Oklahoma

Oregon

Pennsylvania

Rhode Island

South Carolina

South Dakota

Tennessee

Texas

Utah

Vermont

Virginia

Washington

West Virginia

Wisconsin

Wyoming

*

The projected share of vote received by the incumbent is calculated using state economic data, including unemployment rate, real personal income, real GDP and inflation. Historical voting patterns are also included in the model.