Key climate change risks to Australia and NZ

Six key risks in Australia and New Zealand due to climate change
(assuming no adaptation).

Natural Systems

Damage to coral reefs, coasts, rainforests, wetlands and alpine
areas. Increased disturbance, loss of biodiversity including
possible extinctions. Potentially catastrophic for some systems.
Reefs may be dominated by macroalgae by 2050 and possible
extinctions of endemic vertebrates in Queensland West Tropics.
Shrinking glaciers create slope instability.

Water security

Reduction in water supply for irrigation, cities, industry and
riverine environments in areas where stream flow declines. In the
Murray-Darling Basin, annual mean flow may drop 10-25 per cent by
2050 and 16-48 per cent by 2100.

Coastal communities

Greater coastal inundation and erosion, especially in regions
exposed to cyclones and storm surges. Coastal development is
exacerbating the climate risks.

Agriculture and forestry

Reduced crop, pastoral and rangeland production over much of
southern and eastern Australia and parts of eastern New Zealand.
Reduced grain and grape quality. A southward shift of pests and
disease vectors. Increased fire risk for forests.

Major infrastructure

Design criteria for extreme climatic events, floods and storm
surges very likely to be exceeded more frequently. Increased damage
likely for buildings, transport structures, telecommunications,
energy services and water services.

Health

By 2050, 3200-5200 more heat-related deaths per year and 600,000
to 1.4 million more people exposed to dengue fever.

Source: The Final Draft of the Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change report chapter on Australia and New Zealand