U.S. Economic Confidence Remains Slightly Positive at +6

by Justin McCarthy

Story Highlights

Current index reading similar to +5 from prior two weeks

Economic outlook component remains at -1 for third consecutive week

WASHINGTON, D.C. -- Americans remained slightly positive in their views of the U.S. economy last week. Gallup's U.S. Economic Confidence Index was at +6, similar to the readings of +5 in the two previous weeks.

Gallup's U.S. Economic Confidence Index is the average of two components: how Americans rate current economic conditions and whether they feel the economy is improving or getting worse. The index has a theoretical maximum of +100 if all Americans were to say the economy is doing well and improving and a theoretical minimum of -100 if all were to say the economy is doing poorly and getting worse.

Though in positive territory, the index is on the lower end compared with most of its scores since the presidential election in November -- including a reading of +16 in early March, a record high in Gallup's tracking since 2008. Americans' confidence suffered during a rough patch for the stock market and has not recovered since.

For the week ending April 9, 33% of Americans assessed the economy as "excellent" or "good," and 21% rated it as "poor," resulting in a +12 current conditions score -- slightly higher than the +10 score from the prior two weeks.

Meanwhile, Americans are about as likely to say the economy is getting better (46%) as they are to say it is getting worse (47%). As a result, the economic outlook component of Gallup's index remains at -1 for the third week in a row.

Bottom Line

The stock market gains made in February partially dissipated in March, which may have dampened Americans' overall economic confidence. They remain on the fence about whether the economy is improving or worsening.

Americans do see positive signs elsewhere, such as more positive reports of job creation where they work, consistent with the near-decade low in the government's report of unemployment. It is possible that confidence could rebound to a higher level if employment conditions continue to improve. But the index is also not far from negative territory and could retreat to its pre-November readings if the public perceives pullbacks in hiring or other negative economic signs.

Survey Methods

Results for this Gallup poll are based on telephone interviews conducted April 3-9, 2017, on the Gallup U.S. Daily survey, with a random sample of 3,542 adults, aged 18 and older, living in all 50 U.S. states and the District of Columbia. For results based on the total sample of national adults, the margin of sampling error is ±2 percentage points at the 95% confidence level. All reported margins of sampling error include computed design effects for weighting. Each sample of national adults includes a minimum quota of 70% cellphone respondents and 30% landline respondents, with additional minimum quotas by time zone within region. Landline and cellular telephone numbers are selected using random-digit-dial methods.