What do people think is the probability of Wagner having a 3-3 and/or 2a3t for worlds?

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*Having Todd Eldredge at 2002 Olympics flashback*
Almost none. When was the last time she successfully did any of these combos in competition? Almost a year?
I doubt she suddenly goes out and does them cleanly, but I hope she does.
And seeing her recent problems with axel, I'd say 3-3 is more likely than 2a-3t.

All the recent treatment towards Ashley is, IMO, unwarranted. Her mistakes were the same two mistakes at both competitions. If she doesn't get those ironed out by Worlds, it's almost more of an issue with Phillip Mills failing to properly adjust the program.

What do people think is the probability of Wagner having a 3-3 and/or 2a3t for worlds?

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Ashley has shown a new fire and dedication to her training these past couple of years. Barring Heaven-forbid injury I think Ashley will have that 3-3 and 2A-3T ready by Worlds. I'm crossing fingers for her.

Above is the season's best marks for likely worlds competitors. I left the other Americans on just so we can wail and gnash our teeth Kim's Senior B marks aren't on the list, so knock pretty much everyone down a place.

3 spots is only going to happen if Ash & Gracie skate beyonce at the super bowl level of lights out and others make mistakes.

ETA: it's important to note that a lot of these marks are very close, and rankings/placement can easily change as a result.

Above is the season's best marks for likely worlds competitors. I left the other Americans on just so we can wail and gnash our teeth Kim's Senior B marks aren't on the list, so knock pretty much everyone down a place.

3 spots is only going to happen if Ash & Gracie skate beyonce at the super bowl level of lights out and others make mistakes.

ETA: it's important to note that a lot of these marks are very close, and rankings/placement can easily change as a result.

What do people think is the probability of Wagner having a 3-3 and/or 2a3t for worlds?

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Very low. But not impossible - crazier things have happened.

Lord knows she will need every single point out of those jumps if she hopes to be competitive here for a podium spot. And the better Wagner does, the more of a buffer Gold has to make a mistake or two and still be in the running.

Same could have been said about Mao's triple triples and triple axel until 2 days ago.

Don't count her chickens so early. And never underestimate an Ashley Wagner with something to prove.

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I'm not sure how you can compare the situation. Asada has done the triple axel plenty of times under pressure as well as that 3/3. As such she can take it and leave it out...

Wagner has very little history of doing those elements and so its hard to imagine they are going to somehow come out perfectly at Worlds.

It may very well work for her. But a part of me thinks those elements are tricky and you may want to get use to having them in your program-before the big games....Even Asada who has a history of doing these elements, isn't debuting them for the first time this season at worlds.

*Having Todd Eldredge at 2002 Olympics flashback*
Almost none. When was the last time she successfully did any of these combos in competition? Almost a year?
I doubt she suddenly goes out and does them cleanly, but I hope she does.
And seeing her recent problems with axel, I'd say 3-3 is more likely than 2a-3t.

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I think she competed 3-3 and 2A-3T at last year's 4CCs. I think they might have gotten < though.

Wagner seems to have enrolled in the Kwan School of "Only Compete the Triple-Triple When Absolutely Necessary (e.g. for Worlds)". I think she'll go for it at Worlds, whether she can get it done without the reps in competition (as Kwan was able to do) is another story.

Ashley has shown a new fire and dedication to her training these past couple of years. Barring Heaven-forbid injury I think Ashley will have that 3-3 and 2A-3T ready by Worlds. I'm crossing fingers for her.

Michelle did her combo clean at multiple GP Finals, Grand Prix events, National Championship and World Championships. Has Ashley ever even done a clean one with +GOE? I don't think that is the same school. lol The more I think about it I think Ashley is going to have her worst skates at Worlds. Seeing Gracie at 4CC I don't think we will be getting 3 spots back anytime soon.

Wagner seems to have enrolled in the Kwan School of "Only Compete the Triple-Triple When Absolutely Necessary (e.g. for Worlds)". I think she'll go for it at Worlds, whether she can get it done without the reps in competition (as Kwan was able to do) is another story.

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Well I think a triple toe/triple toe is a heck of a lot easier than lets say a triple flip/triple..Plus as mentioned Michelle may not have done it every time but she did it plenty of times. .However even in Kwan's case, she never got those in when she probably really needed it at the Olympics. I just think there's something to be said for going out there and putting the content out there at the minor competitions and getting use to them. I think it would have helped Kwan, and I think it would have helped Irina at the Olympics too.

This is where I think Yu-na Kim is unappreciated. She may never had a 3loop and she may never had a 3axel. But Kim always went for that 3lutz/3toe and double axel/3toe every competition (only one time when she didn't) There were plenty of competitions where Yu-na could have left them off -and still won. But she went for them and you know what by the time the Olympics went around going for these things were likely second nature to her.

Same goes for Tara. She went for that 3loop/3loop every time. And so by the time the Olympics was around she was use to it. Even Asada didn't expect to somehow magically hit the triple axel/2toe for the first time at the Olympics.

And if it doesn't go well for you than you can come up with a plan b.

Now sure maybe magic can happen and you can have that combination at the big games. But I highly question if you have the combination if your not doing it somewhat regularly and I think its asking an awfully lot to do them when the pressure is the greatest.

Michelle did her combo clean at multiple GP Finals, Grand Prix events, National Championship and World Championships. Has Ashley ever even done a clean one with +GOE? I don't think that is the same school. lol

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Post-Tara, how many times did MK pull out the 3-3 at Nationals and regular GP events? I think almost never...
MK didn't think she needed it (and she was right), so it wasn't part of her normal repertoire. However, she needed it at 2000 and 2001 Worlds to hold off Irina, so she pulled it out. I think she also pulled it out at a GPF or two. I'm not knocking it; it was an excellent strategy for MK.

I think Ashley is trying to go a similar route; but whether she can simply add it in as MK did remains to be seen. I don't think she is as strong a competitor, though she definitely is a go-getter. Well, I'm trying to be optimistic.

bek said:

However even in Kwan's case, she never got those in when she probably really needed it at the Olympics. I just think there's something to be said for going out there and putting the content out there at the minor competitions and getting use to them. I think it would have helped Kwan, and I think it would have helped Irina at the Olympics too.

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True, but on the other hand, not constantly training the 3-3 probably kept her body healthier longer and extended her career. Ironically, she didn't even need the 3-3 to win 2002 OGM, a clean six-triple performance would have held off Sarah (darn it!!).

Post-Tara, how many times did MK pull out the 3-3 at Nationals and regular GP events? I think almost never...
MK didn't think she needed it (and she was right), so it wasn't part of her normal repertoire. However, she needed it at 2000 and 2001 Worlds to hold off Irina, so she pulled it out. I think she also pulled it out at a GPF or two. I'm not knocking it; it was an excellent strategy for MK.

I think Ashley is trying to go a similar route; but whether she can simply add it in as MK did remains to be seen. I don't think she is as strong a competitor, though she definitely is a go-getter. Well, I'm trying to be optimistic.

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But the difference is that Kwan still had quite a lot of experience with that element. And also Kwan needed that 3/3 at lets say the 2002 Olympics, and then doubled it...That triple toe/triple toe might have given her the placement she needed to win the Olympics. So no I don't think leaving it out and only doing it when absolutely necessary was necessarily a good strategy for Kwan.

Perhaps if Kwan had put herself in the place where she went for that 3/3 every single time, she would have done it at the Olympics..Because going for it would have been second nature..Its also a different system now and in someways 3/3s are more important too.

But the difference is that Kwan still had quite a lot of experience with that element. And also Kwan needed that 3/3 at lets say the 2002 Olympics, and then doubled it...That triple toe/triple toe might have given her the placement she needed to win the Olympics. So no I don't think leaving it out and only doing it when absolutely necessary was necessarily a good strategy for Kwan.

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Oh, I wound up editing my earlier post to respond to some of your thoughts. I don't think she needed the 3-3 to hold off Sarah, as it turned out...though she didn't know it at the time because she had to skate before Irina.

I do think Kwan would have suffered a career-ending injury sooner had she gone for 3-3 all those years, so from a longevity point of view, it was not a bad strategy.

ETA: I agree with you that it's not necessarily a good strategy for Ashley (assuming it is her strategy, which *I* think it is, but it's just a theory)

With the positive GOE she gets for the 3f-tano 2t, using the 3f3t in the SP would be incredibly gutsy. It's a 2.8 point increase in base value, but with a likely 2 point swing the other way - at least - in GOE. I'm thinking she'll lose the +1 she normally gets in addition to a deduction for not being able to do the 3-3 cleanly. It hardly seems worth it unless there's a decent chance she can nail the 3-3.

With the positive GOE she gets for the 3f-tano 2t, using the 3f3t in the SP would be incredibly gutsy. It's a 2.8 point increase in base value, but with a likely 2 point swing the other way - at least - in GOE. I'm thinking she'll lose the +1 she normally gets in addition to a deduction for not being able to do the 3-3 cleanly. It hardly seems worth it unless there's a decent chance she can nail the 3-3.

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And she can't evaluate if its worth it because she's not going for it now.

I wonder why Ashley doesn't try for the 3T-3T in the SP -- is that not more attainable for her than 3F-3T?

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I'm guessing because she doesn't want to repeat the 3toe in the LP, so that combo would be a bit of a dead end for her. She needs a 3-3 combo that starts with a flip or a loop, the two triples that she repeats in the lp. I'm assuming 3-3 combos that end with the loop are a no go, as getting credit for that is so rare.

I do think Kwan would have suffered a career-ending injury sooner had she gone for 3-3 all those years, so from a longevity point of view, it was not a bad strategy.

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Interesting thought, but I don't agree. I don't think Kwan did much less 3-3s in her life than Tara/Sarah/Irina/whoever simply because to put it in the program when it counts you need to get the combo ready, and to get it ready you have to train it all the time. And I don't think Kwan knew exactly when she would need it, so most likely she had this combo ready for every important competition, doesn't matter if she put it in the program or not.
As for Wagner, she will most likely need the 3-3 for Worlds especially in the short, but I don't think she'll go for it.
And what happened with Gold? Was it jet lag or she just reached her peak for Nationals or it was all because of the nerves? She looked scared and out of shape

Yet another thread gets derailed because one poster says something about Kwan and some of her fans can't let it go and jump in to defend her.

I understand that discussion is encouraged on a discussion board (duh ) but if every fan jumped to defend their favorite skater's defense every.single.time someone said something less than glowing about them, every thread would be derailed. Does Kwan really need to be defended EVERY time some fans hear something they don't like? It's getting old. And by the way, my favorite skater of all time is Michelle Kwan.

Back to the topic at hand. I expect to see Wagner attempt the 3toe-3toe at worlds, especially after this weekend's competition. I just hope that her lack of trying it in competition doesn't make her double foot it.

I'm not reading too much into the non-world team qualifier always beating the world team member. The world team member probably scales back after nationals to start peaking again for worlds, where the non-qualifier keeps training full speed ahead for their final event of the year and they also have something more to prove.