Coupon Busters - FA Cup 5th Rnd

(*And if you think these camps are just an excuse for drinking, golf and off-the-record contract/ bonus negotiations, you’re bang wrong. Not many play golf these days.)

From a punting point of view it hasn’t left us much to get our grubby mitts on. Six of the eight Fifth Round ties span the divisions and even Huddersfield V Man United fits the giant killing bill.

The bookies have got it wrapped pretty tight, so we’re going to get any value without going out on a limb. But this is where my paper round money will be going this weekend…

Banker

Swansea to beat Sheffield Wednesdayat 5/4 – Wednesday are only this 16th best team in the Championship at home. (FA Cup aside) they’ve only won two of the last 16 and have no bidness being the Sixth Round. The Swans meanwhile are fairly flying. This will be ten unbeaten. Get on.

Long Shot

And it is a long shot, so don’t put the kids on it. But you’ll get a smidgeon better than 10/1 backing all the giants to avoid a killing this weekend. Plus, if it still alive come Monday night it will add a bit of spice to the Wigan v Man City match.

Leicester City to beat Sheffield United

Chelsea to beat Hull City

Swansea City to beat Sheffield Wednesday

Brighton to beat Coventry City

Man United to beat Huddersfield Town

Tottenham to beat Rochdale

Man City to beat Wigan

TV Treble

You might not know this, but in various bets on these pages I have recommended Chelsea to keep a clean sheet three times. And three times have got it wrong (yes Watford, Newcastle and Huddersfield. I’m looking at you…).

But eight out of nine wins To Nil v the bottom seven in the PL is urging me to go in again v Hull. Who are the third worst away scorers in the Championship. I’m adding Tottenham and Man United - who will have had a week of Jose drills after a couple of shockers recently - in a TV Treble that pays 15/2.

What we learned from Game Week 27

You just start thinking you can rely on him and he pulls a Phil Jones on you…

It was a bad weekend, Badmen. With a few bad calls and a bit of bad luck.

I’ll take responsibility for swerving the Tottenham and Liverpool Wins, in favour of the better value Both Teams to Score picks. Greedy. A Chinese burn has been administered.

But I stand by West Brom to score at Chelsea (they should’ve). And our cause wasn’t helped by Sturridge’s brittle hamstring pinging moments into the match.

And I’d back the same Bournemouth and Man United bets if they played the same match again tomorrow.

But instead we’ve got a much more glamourous midweek to tackle, which I’ll get onto in a minute…

You’re looking smart…

Of course, you might’ve collected this weekend. And I sincerely hope you did.

Because every Badman bets differently. You might just follow Tap-ins, or Smart Bets, or not get out of bed for less than a Long Shot. You might pick and choose.

Last week everyone was snorting their Sherbert Dib-Dabs off the bookies tits. The two previous weeks it was the Tap-in merchants who were hosing rentable ladies in Babycham.

But overall it is the Smart Bettors who have had the most cake rubbed in their backs. We’re 5pts in front since we tweaked the format, so if you’re wavering on which category fits best – it’s the Smart move.

And here’s another…

An Old Lady that is worth a punt…

Tottenham tackle Juventus tonight in the Champions League. And while – quite rightly – all the talk is about Harry Kane; how great he is, how many zillion pounds he is worth and how he is DEFINITELY going to win the World Cup for England… (well, perhaps not yet. But you wait until the summer).

There are a couple of things that you might not – and definitely should – be aware of about Tottenham’s opponents, Juventus.

NOTE: I am writing this ahead of the first leg, so putting it out there – like a Huddersfield substitute. But whatever happens in Turin, I think this is valid. Where was I? Oh yeah…

Juventus and Napoli are pissing Serie A. Juve are currently playing second fiddle, a point off the top but 14pts ahead of third place. Which is relative, I know. But get this…

Juventus have conceded…ahem… once in their last 15 matches. Once. In 15.

They’ve also won their last ten and only tasted defeat once in 22 (18 D3 L1). And let’s not forget they have reached two of the last three finals, losing to Real Madrid last season (who weren’t bad) and Barcelona in 2015 (also reasonable).

However, Juventus are currently trading at 16/1 to win the Champions League. And that, Badmen, is value.

It’s three times the price of Barca and Bayern (5/1), but I’d call it closer to Even Money if they were going head-to-head with either team over two legs. They’ve got more pedigree than Man City (too short at 10/3) and PSG (also 5/1), who look capable of taking care of Real (8s).

Still not feeling it? Okay, one last point…

Juventus are currently priced the same as Liverpool and Man United to lift the trophy. Worth a punt in my view.

Ciao for now.

Matt Nesbitt

UPDATE: Wednesday 14th...

Thought I'd take a welcome break from opening Valentine's cards to update on Juventus v Spurs.

Juve's price went down to single figures on Betfair at 2-0 up. But is now as big as 28/1 in places. If they can get past Tottenham, I'd still fancy them to go to the last four - and then you'd have a very tradable price.

Coupon Busters - Game Week 27

Friday, February 9 2018

Oi oi, Badmen. I found nearly a five in loose change down the back of the settee while I was doing the housework, so I thought I’d try to turn it into £50.

Here’s how…

Match Results

Tottenham Win & BTTS

Liverpool Win & BTTS £1 Double returns £10.50

Both Teams to Score

Tottenham v Arsenal

West Ham v Watford £1 Double returns £2.50

Everton v Palace £1 Treble returns £5

Southampton v Liverpool £1 Four-fold returns £8

Draws

Everton v Palace

Stoke v Brighton

Swansea v Burnley

West Ham v Watford £1.10p Yankee returns £26.85 (any 2 pays £4.50).

*In this context a Yankee is not a racist, pussy-grabbing con man with a Stars and Stripes on his lapel and an unruly shrub of Cheetos Shredded Wheat on his head. It is 11 bets in one – six Doubles, four Trebles and a Four-fold. A 10p Yankee bet costs £1.10p – 11 x 10p bets = £1.10p.

Cha cha chang chang,

Matt Nesbitt

Premier League Preview - Game Week 27

Thursday, February 8 2018

The weekend has rolled around again. Never fails, does it.

With it comes ten Premier League puzzles. All tricky. Some with a couple of pieces missing. But let’s have a go, shall we…

The Tap Ins are included regardless of price, so I’d reserve them for topping up Accas at best. Or even bypass them totally.

The Smart Money bets are the best way of dredging a bit of value out of the bookies. And any Long Shots are decent priced punts that have some statistical merit.

All Scorecasts are priced up too.

Saturday:
Tottenham v Arsenal
Have you torn up your form book? And thrown it out of the window? It’s okay, I don’t mind sharing…
Tottenham have revved up for the derby swatting aside Everton and Man United at home and wrestling an equally impressive point out of Liverpool. My biggest worry is the early kick off as Spurs tend to start slowly.
Arsenal have been shocking on the road all season. Like, just a point better than Newcastle bad. But a goal (Aubameyang) and three assists (Mkhitaryan) from the new boys in their first outing will have them pumped. The Gunners’ last eight matches have seen goals at both ends. So that’s the place to start… Scorecast: 2-1 - 15/2.Tap in: Both Teams to Score at 4/9.Smart Money: Tottenham Win & BTTS at 11/5.

Everton v Crystal Palace
Not so much of the ‘Saviour Sam’ being banded about Allardyce these days. He’s back to just being Big.
That’s what one win in nine matches does for you, I s’pose. But they punch their weight at home, winning seven of their eight v teams outside the Top Seven.
Palace fall into that category, of course. But have some pretty consistent away stats themselves v the Premier Leagues also rans: just one defeat from seven. Only one win too, but after going eight away games without a goal, they’ve hit eight in five and look good for at least another at Goodison. Scorecast: 1-1 - 5/1. Tap in: Both Teams to Score at Evens. Smart Money: Draw & BTTS at 7/2.

Stoke City v Brighton
It's early yet, but it looks like back to the bad old days for Stoke. They have been outplayed in Paul Lambert’s first four games in charge, yielding just seven corners, three goals and 4pts.
The upside is, things have gone well against Bottom Third teams – four wins from five at home. A fifth from six puts them level with Saturday’s visitors.
Brighton are another team relying on their form against Bottom Third – actually, they’ve taken points off all but one of the Bottom Half so far. All 9pts on the road have come from teams above Stoke, so they won’t want to walk away from this six-pointer with nothing. Scorecast: 1-1 - 5/1.Tap in: Under 2.5 Goals at 4/7.Long Shot: Draw/ Stoke HT/FT is value at 19/5.

Swansea City v Burnley
Swansea have taken flight in recent weeks and are currently eight unbeaten, winning the last four at home. Even taking lower division clubs out of the picture, wins over Liverpool and Arsenal are not to be quacked at. (Swans quack, right?) But those two wins make up 6pts of the 8pts in total taken from ten matches v the Top Eight. So let’s not count our… erm… signets before they hatch.
Burnley haven’t won since early December. But have only lost once on the road and their level of performance hasn’t dropped far below their early season form. Only the Top Five have been better on the road too, so I can’t see them leaving empty handed. There might even be a bit of value in the Away Win…Scorecast: 1-1 – 5/1.Tap in: Burnley Draw No Bet at 6/5. Long Shot: Burnley Win & BTTS at 7/1.

West Ham v Watford
These two are among, ooh…perhaps 11 teams that are a couple of wins away from the warm blanket of mid-table. But likewise just two defeats from shitty, wet quicksand of the relegation zone.
West Ham are one of the few you’d think have too much to go down. But having too much ‘at stake’ isn’t quite the same. Defeat in the six-pointer at Brighton last week was their first in seven but they’ve only beaten one team outside the Bottom Four.
Watford probably cashed in the jackpot of a Chelsea side in disarray on Monday, but it could be a turning point in getting their wheels back in the slots after a chaotic couple of months. They need something here too, because their next five away trips take in four of the Top Six. And then they add up the points. Scorecast: 2-2 – 12/1.Tap in: Both Teams to Score at 8/11.Smart Money: Draw & BTTS at 13/4.

Man City v Leicester City
Wonder if Riyad Mahrez will turn up for this one? Shame really, ‘cos Leicester could do with him. That is, the one that scored six in his last 13 matches. Not the one that sulked through the previous 15 (three goals) because he didn’t get a transfer in the summer. He would only be keeping things warm for a fully fit Sane, Sterling, Jesus et al anyway.
Only Everton have denied City maximum points so far and the upcoming Champions League appointment (in Basel) shouldn’t be weighing too heavily on anyone’s mind. So there’s no real case to be made for anything but a Home Win.
It’s a free hit for Leicester, with three winnable PL matches to follow. So the only question is can they score? Scorecast: Yes. 3-1 – 9/1. Tap in: Man City (-1) Match Handicap at 4/7.Smart Money: Man City Win & BTTS at 8/5.

Sunday:
Huddersfield Town v Bournemouth
Watching Huddersfield roll over to first Liverpool and then Man United could be written off as savvy management of expectation. If it wasn’t for the three batterings to much more modest opposition immediately previous, that is. And the three before that yielded just 3pts. So - I’m afraid – from here it looks like they should get comfortable in the Bottom Three.
Bournemouth have rarely been in fine fettle in their Premier League tenure. Unbeaten in seven, winning home and away and the late turnaround against a stubborn Stoke last week stunk of a team full of beans. If there’s an Away Win this weekend, it’ll be here.Scorecast: 1-3 – 22/1.Tap In: Bournemouth Draw No Bet at 4/6.Smart Money: Bournemouth Win & BTTS at 17/4.

Newcastle United v Man United
Ah, what was I saying about Away Wins…?
Say what you like about Mourinho and his bus parking skills, but his beep beep beep beep is music to punter’s ears. The defeat at Tottenham interrupted a run on seven clean sheets and six Wins To Nil. You know what you’re getting with Jose. Outside the Top Five, United have taken 54pts from a possible 63pts and are starting to look as comfortable in ‘Park’ as they are in City’s slipstream.
And Rafa is almost as reliable, fact. Just 2pts from 12 matches v Top Half teams might seem a bit shit, but as long as it is matched with enough from the Bottom Half it simply means they punch their weight. And so far, 23pts from 14 matches is just about on track. 15 more required. But none here.Scorecast: 0-2 – 13/2.Tap in: Man United to Win at 4/6.Smart Money: Man United Win To Nil at 8/5.Long Shot: Man United Win, BTTS: NO, Over 10.5 Corners & Under 35.5 Booking Points at 8/1 (Coral #YourCall)

Southampton v Liverpool
These are undoubtedly two of the Premier League’s scattiest teams. It’s perhaps not surprising with the amount of shared DNA over recent seasons. But that doesn’t make it any easier to predict.
Southampton have plenty of ability in their ranks, but ‘shop window players do have a habit of picking their matches. But this is likely to be on the list. One clean sheet in 18 suggests the Saints will have to outscore Liverpool though.
Which will suit Klopp’s lot down to the ground. Their only clean sheets in the last ten have come against (then) Bottom Two teams. And in a goal-fest you can’t go against the visitors.Scorecast: 1-2 – 8/1.Tap In: Both Teams to Score at 4/6.Smart Money: Liverpool & BTTS at 23/10.

Monday:
Chelsea v West Brom
Hmm, if you fancy an Away Win place it in a double with Conte to be sacked the following morning.
The double bubble of defeats to Bournemouth and Watford made this as tough a week as poor Antonio has faced at Chelsea. And he has the potential banana skin of Hull at home to negotiate next week. Oh and then Barcelona, Man United and Man City. So, er, let’s file this one under: Must Win.
West Brom might argue that slipping to bottom of the table made their week worse, but it’s all relative. Pardew will be aware of a run of six winnable matches after this one, but with 20-odd points required from 12 games he can’t afford to be fussy. So they will have a go here. But even at 7/1, I can’t make a case.Scorecast: 2-1 – 15/2.Smart Money: Chelsea Win & BTTS at 11/5. Long Short: Daniel Sturridge to Score at Anytime at 7/2.

Play nice.

Matt Nesbitt

What we learned from Game Week 26

Tuesday, February 6 2018

Betting smart is the way forward…

But we knew that. A decent set of results at the weekend underlined precisely where the value is when it comes to tackle the weekend coupons. Five out of six Tap-ins generated a svelte profit of just 1.3pts, whereas five out of seven Smart Bets stuffed 10.62pts down our cleavage.

That’s the equivalent of an 11/8 winner v 10/1 winner in hard currency. No contest. Like Watford v Chelsea…

That’s why they call it the blues…

Chelsea have announced that Antonio Conte will ‘not be sacked in the wake of the defeat at Watford’. Of course, all that means is he will be picking the team against West Brom next Monday. And he needs to get it right. Because if he manages to dodge that bullet, there are four more piss-dipped, barbwire-wrapped, ‘A.C.’ engraved ones on the way.

First up, it's Hull at home in the FA Cup. A match that’s unwinnable in the eyes of the fans, the board and the football world in general. Plus, if it has gone wonky in the dressing and the players want him gone, this is the match they can do it.

Next up it’s Barcelona at the Bridge. Then consecutive trips to Man United and City. Ouch.

If Antonio makes it to April without seeing the inside of a Russian salt-mine he will have done well.

You’re in safe hands…

Now, I’m not complaining – I enjoy my work. Sitting on my skinny white arse writing about football and betting is all I’m really qualified – or prepared – to do. But there are downsides. Working weekends is one, not really getting a break between August and May is another.

Which means you miss out on valuable family time…

Ha Ha ZING! Got ya!

I'm joking, of course – I like to spend all (ALL, I say – every last bit) of my spare time in the company of dead-eyed bar staff and taxi drivers.

But my point is, I feel a responsibility to provide a level of service to my employers and subscribers that I couldn’t possibly pass on to anyone else. Or ask anyone to cover me, not even for one weekend.

I am, however, talking out of my arse. Our own Ben Dinnery backed Watford to beat Chelsea. At 5/1! While I said Away Win and cost everyone money, so it was Ben toking on a fat cigar rolled on the thighs of a virgin this weekend. Probably.

So if I do happen to go AWOL, you’ll be in safe hands Badmen.

Head for the Hills…

Oh and while I’m on, I’ve had a few of you asking where is the best bookie to place your bets. The truth is, all the big hitters are much of a muchness when it comes to choice of bets, speed of pricing up and value. But for me William Hill are consistently the best at all three and provide good offers.

Premier League Preview - Game Week 26

Not Transfer Deadline Day, I fucking love it – but having midweek fixtures happening in and around it didn’t only upset Chelsea’s miserable old Conte. I’m blaming a shocking set of result on it too.

Hopefully I won’t need an excuse for the weekend…

The Tap Ins are included regardless of price, so I’d reserve them for topping up Accas at best. Or even bypass them totally.

The Smart Money bets are the best way of dredging a bit of value out of the bookies. And any Long Shots are decent priced punts that have some statistical merit.

All Scorecasts are priced up too.

Sing it, fellas…

Saturday:
Burnley v Man City
There are only five places but 33ptsbetween these two. And, of course, a million miles. And a zillion pounds.
How Burnley have managed to stay in 7th place despite eight matches without a win - and just one lonely point from the last four, by the way – says more about the Premier League than it does Burnley. But it can’t go on forever.
It will persist at least another 90 minutes though, I suspect. City are on a dodgy run themselves – just one point from their last two away matches. I doubt Pep is sweating, but they will have to work for the win at Burnley. Tap in: Burnley (+3) Match Handicap at 4/11.Scorecast: A steady 0-2 – 11/2.

Bournemouth v Stoke City
After a 3-0 win at Chelsea and beating Arsenal in their last home match, this should be a gimme. If only it was that simple. For one, Stoke are under new stewardship and look a different proposition already. Two clean sheets and 4pts against Huddersfield and Watford is nowt to write home about, but a step in the right directions. Getting something at Bournemouth will be another.
Eddie Howe’s liking for attractive football means they ship far too many goals – just two clean sheets at home – but they have been pretty efficient v the Bottom Half. Only two defeats from 12 is solid, but two wins from five at home needs to improve. Starting here.Smart Money: Bournemouth Win & Both Teams to Score at 14/5.Scorecast: A tight 2-1 – 15/2.

Brighton v West Ham
The Seagulls are one of the most consistent teams in the division, pretty much exactly punching their weight. They’ve taken points from every home match v teams outside the Top Six and only lost twice on the road to Bottom Half teams. Unfortunately for them, West Ham look to have the measure of Bottom Six teams this season, winning five (and drawing one) of their eight matches.
One of their two defeats was a 0-3 drubbing by Brighton. A bit out of character for both.
So, factoring all of that in and taking away the number you first though of… I can’t see a winner. Oh and they have played out six draws in their last nine between them.Smart Money: Draw & Under 2.5 Goals at 5/2.Scorecast: Looks like a 1-1 – 5/1

Leicester City v Swansea City
After another multi-million pound move has been snatched from out of his wallet, the green-eyed Mahrez might be due for a spell as the incredible sulk again. Shame because Claude had got him looking like… well, a Man City player again. Until their Deadline Day stumble, Leicester were unbeaten in six with just one goal conceded. A home match against the division’s ugly ducklings should be just the tonic…
But Swansea will have other ideas after consecutive wins over Liverpool and Arsenal. They are unbeaten in four on the road too (all comps) and will be boosted by the return of prodigal duckling Andre Ayew. Could be a bit of value on offer here.Tap in: Both Teams to Score at Evens.Smart Money: Draw & Both Teams to Score at 4/1.Scorecast: Has the look of a 2-2 – 16/1.

Man United v Huddersfield Town
Two teams that surrendered meekly in their last outing. The life drained out of United alarmingly quickly once Corporal Jones had lashed in Tottenham’s second. Don’t panic, don’t panic – we’re back at home next. And very effective they have been too, dropping just 4pts all season – both in Christmas week. Anything less than three decisive points here and all of a sudden Top Four starts to look like a scramble.
Huddersfield rolled over at home to Liverpool as if they were saving themselves for something. But I don’t suppose it was United, even though they have beaten them once already. Twice would be silly. Tap in: Home Win at 1/7.Smart Money: Man United Win to Nil at 4/7.Long Shot: Correct Score 4-0 – 15/2.Scorecast: Or maybe 3-0 – 5/1.

West Brom v Southampton
Funny week for the Baggies. They hit their best form of the season – three wins from four (all comps) – win away at Liverpool and help snatch one of their players as they left. But end the week at the Bottom of the Premier League. Things look better for shiz, but they need to get into Swansea’s slipstream if they are going to play their way out of trouble. Their home form hasn’t been the problem – they’ve only lost three times, all to Top Four teams. Although seven of the other nine matches ended level. So with Southampton sitting three points north as things stand, this qualifies as a must win.
Of course, the Saints will be thinking much the same thing. They are 12 without a win but draws with Arsenal, Spurs and Man United in that run suggests they are guilty of picking their games. Both teams love a draw but I have a feeling West Brom will edge it.Tap in: West Brom Draw No Bet at 7/10.Long Shot: West Brom & Both Teams to Score at 9/2.Scorecast: A tight 2-1 – 9/1.

Arsenal v Everton
Real Madrid have BBC, Barcelona had MSN and now Arsenal have a frontline of Lacazette, Mkhitaryan, Aubameyang and Ozil and they can boast about LMAO.
They are still too Jekyll and Hyde though. Second only to Man City at home this season, but you can’t help but have doubts about their soft centre. Especially when tough nuts like Everton are in town. They will of course bring Theo Walcott with them, fresh from his match winning brace in midweek. Only two teams have been worse on the road and ten matches v Top Seven teams has yielded just 3pts so far.
The bookies have loaded into the home win and I’m not going to back against it. But can’t help thinking this will be an ugly one for the home team. So let’s do this… Tap In: Arsenal Win at 3/10.Smart Money: Arsenal Win & Both Teams to Score at 2/1.Scorecast: A hard fought 2-1.

Sunday:
Crystal Palace v Newcastle United
Only a point separates the teams, but the mood at Palace will be much the better. Only Arsenal have beaten them in the last nine matches and 7pts from their last four at home has them rubbing form shoulders with the likes of Chelsea and Man United. And you’d back them to see off Newcastle.
But hold on… The Geordies’ away form is only a point worse than Man City’s over the last four, because they too have rallied since Christmas. The truth is, they punch their weight – 22pts from 12 matches in the Bottom Eight v 2pts from 13 matches against teams above. Palace are right on the cusp, but will have a little too much for Toon. Tap in: Palace Draw No bet at 4/9.Long Shot: Palace Win & Both Teams to Score at 7/2.Scorecast: I’m thinking 2-1 – 8/1.

Liverpool v Tottenham
We all know about Tottenham’s record away to Top Four teams – just four wins in their last 96 attempts. But it wasn’t so long ago that being 2-0 up against Man United at half-time meant they were in for a good hiding. This Spurs team are made of sterner stuff and have already stuck four past Liverpool this season. If they can score first I can’t see them beaten.
Liverpool seem to be over the wobble that saw them beaten by the PL’s bottom two teams in a week. But, like Spurs, sometimes meet their match when trading blows with the big boys. Just one win from five (D2 L2) v the Top Five so far and a draw will keep their noses in front for now. Tap In: Both Teams to Score at 1/2.Smart Money: Draw & Both Teams to Score at 13/4.Long Shot: Harry Kane Last Goal at 4/1.Scorecast: An entertaining 1-1 – 13/2.

Monday:
Watford v Chelsea
Hmm, it’s been a funny old season for Watford. Their 15pts from the first eight matches seems a very long time ago. Since then the wheels have come off, although they seem to have got lodged in mid-table – which is no mean feat after just one win in 12. That bubble is starting to fray though – defeat here could have them in the Bottom Three. It’s too early to get a steer on the new man in charge, but their clean sheet at Stoke was their first November.
Chelsea have kicked the Hornets’ nest with a 4-2 win already this term, but are in an odd mood so far in 2018. Five draws, two wins and two defeats suggest something is wrong but only Man City have been better on the road. And while I’m not as bullish as the bookies, you can’t really back against them. Smart Money: Chelsea Win & Both Teams to Score at 5/2.Scorecast: Just enough 1-2 – 7/1.