Friday, August 31, 2007

The month of August saw Mumbai (colaba) recording 688 mms of rain, higher for the month than in 2005 and 2006.

This graph shows the amount of rain in Mumbai as on end August as almost equal to the season's total of about 2000 mms, and with still a month's rain left. Highest for the month in the recent past was in 1983, when almost 1180 mms fell in August. The seasonal total(June/July/Aug.) for Colaba is 2016 mms, against 1947 mms for the same period last year.

For Mumbai (Santa Cruz), August this year saw 605 mms , against 952 last year. Again, in the recent past, it was 1983, with 1225 mms in August for the suburbs. While the season's total for suburbs is 2132 mms (2494 last year).

However, the overall rain for India,for the period, is +2%,and the regional distribution is clear in this diagram.

Heavy rainfall region Mahableshwar recorded 1985 mms of rain this month, against 3038 mms for the same month last year ! Reminds me of a "weather joke"

"I can't believe it," said the tourist. "I've been here an entire weekand it's done nothing but rain. When do you have summer here?""Well, that's hard to say," replied the local."Last year, it was on a Wednesday."

The forecast indicates the formation of a low in the Bay around the 2nd. as a result of which increased rainfall can be expected along A.P. coast and Orissa. But due to lack of moisture support, the low may not travel beyond East M.P. or Central India.The trough off the west coast will keep coastal Maharashtra,Karnataka and Goa wet with scattered heavy rain for the next 2/3 days.For Mumbai, it is heavy passing showers for the next 3 days, with around 15 mms of rain per day.

Tuesday, August 28, 2007

The wind and streamline pattern of the sub continent seems to be getting a bit organised and seasonal. Gujarat region, madhya Maharashtra and the Konkan coast had good and heavy rains Monday/Tuesday. Mumbai had the expected 34 mms of rain and Aurangabad and Osmanabad were the wet spots in interior Maharashtra with 90 mms each.

The good news for the coming 10 days is that a wet session is expected, first on the west coast and adjoining interiors, and then the east coast. As per the map , cross equatorial flows are picking up, and could increase rain bearing clouds along the west coast. According to forecast models, upper air circulations are expected to form along the Gujarat and Maharashtra coast, within a day or two, hence attracting the monsoon westerlies from the Arabian Sea. The monsoon trough has also started moving south, and is now running across Rajasthan,M.P. and towards the bay. This may leave the north/north west India drier for a few days.Hence, for the west coast, a wet and active monsoon can be expected in the first week of September.Subsequently, on the 2nd. a low is expected to form in the Bay, as predicted by the IMD, which will enhance rainfall activity along the east coast. This low can strenghten, and move inland towards the central regions of India.

The succesor to the Pacific typhoon "Sepat" is emerging, and is forecasted to hit Japan around the 6th. September. For long term forecasting, the resultant pulse from this may form a low in the bay in the second week of September, around 10-12th. This has to be studied and observed.

Sunday, August 26, 2007

The outing for the "Mumbai Birdwatcher's Club" at Uran turned out to be favourable, weatherwise, with a great opportunity for the birders to spot and identify many types of grassland birds (a rare albino Prinia) and plenty of water species. Most of the 15 mm of rain had fallen on Saturday evening/night, and the day was cloudy.

Well, the rain has just eased a bit on Sunday, as at least 25-30 mms of rain is now expected on Monday and may extend into Tuesday. An upper air circulation formed over south Maharashtra should result in heavy rain in madhya Maharashtra, Marathawada and south Gujarat on Monday/ Tuesday. As the circulation dissolves in the Arabian Sea, the effect of the rain will diminish.The circulation over south Maharashtra and a distorted wind formation, away from the seasonal expectation, is seen in this map.But with the Bay showing no signs, as yet, of brewing another low in the next few days, drier weather will return mid week onwards in most parts of central, southern and northern India. As is seen in this temperature map, the red area (hot) has now crept southwards.

Many parts of the Middle East are still very hot, with Basra (Iraq) being the hot spot at 48 c and Yenbo Airport (S.Arabia) at 47 c. Pakistan's highest was at Bhawalnagar which recorded 41 c. Keeping a track at the Gulf and Pakistan day temperatures is necessary so as to keep a track of the changing wind pattern and subsequent rising of sea level pressure over Arabia/Pakistan, indicating change of season. However, the temperatures are still too high for a change yet.For your views: kapadias@gmail.com

Saturday, August 25, 2007

On the the day my blog was introduced to the "Mumbai Birdwatcher's club" and the "Birds of Bombay" forum, I was pleasantly surprised to have a visitor at my residence. The welcome guest, was spotted at my Breach Candy home, and is on the roof of the adjacent house.

I would like to share this with my friends .... pardon the quality of the picture as I had to rush and click on my cell phone before the peacock flew off!

Thursday, August 23, 2007

Carrying on from the last blog, the situation is very much as anticipated. The low which crossed the sub continent is now fizzling out over Sindh (Pakistan). Karachi recieved 80 mms of rain yesterday, Hyderabad (Pakistan) 64mms, and several stations in Sindh between 15-40 mms.

With this low fading away, quite weather prevails over much of the sub continent region, till this weekend.

A weak low is forecasted by "COLA" to traverse across India, from east to west, through the states of Orissa, M.P. Maharashtra and Gujarat from Saturday onwards. It is expected to reach Gujarat by Monday.

Mumbai will remain hot and stuffy till Saturday, with the day temperature expected to go up to 33 c . Weekend could see some increased rain, more on Sunday and Monday, when around 25-35 mms of rain(with thunder) can be expected.

North India is expected to be dry, with no interacting systems. The hot area (red) shown in the map, may spread southwards to some more areas as a result.

Japan

Severe heat wave has hit Japan. Nagoya recorded 38 c for 2 days. A new national created with Kumagaya reaching 40.9 c. Even Mount Fujiyama reached a maximum of 18.2 c, the highest ever.

The low from the bay weakened, without really gaining strenght, and now seems to dissipate over Gujarat. As a result, Gujarat will get rains today( Tuesday), for a day.

Mumbai and Maharashtra, will have a somewhat rainless week through Saturday with not much rain. In fact very little rain is expected all over maharashtra in the week , and Mumbai will get less than 5 mm of rain per day till Sunday, that is a shower or two daily.

Gujarat and Rajasthan may be dry in the week, and as a result will get hot.

The W.D. interacting with the monsoon trough in the western Himalayas produced some heavy rain in the hills of H.P. and in the region of Northern Pakistan. Rawalpindi getting 124 mms and Islamabed 49 mms. The W.D. is expected to move away to the east.

No system is expected till Sunday in the subcontinent, and quite weather over much of the region. Can get hot in the north and northwest region.

Thursday, August 16, 2007

As feared in the prevoius blog, the latest low did not gain much in intensity, and headed north north west and merged with the monsoon trough in the Himalayan foothills. That means a "break monsoon" condition for all of India, except the hills of western Himalayas and Bihar, east U.P.

A new low is forecsated by the IMD around the 18th. Seems ,that probably it might be a bit later than 18th. Till then warmer weather for the north and dry weather for the peninsular for another 4/5 days, at least. The highest temperature in the subcontinent was 42c at Nawabshah(Pakistan), and 38c in Hissar (India).

Mumbai will get few showers on Friday/Saturday, with rainfall of around 5-10 mms per day. But a little increase in rain, around 20 mms, is expected on Sunday, due to a weak off shore trough which might form for a day or two. Mumbai has had 1837 mms (73") of rain to date, that is 292 mms (11.5") more than normal at this date. And Santa Cruz has recorded 1930 mms (77") of rain, that is 210 mms (8.5") more than normal.

Sunday, August 12, 2007

With the western end of the monsoon trough way up in the foothills of the Himalayas, the rain is restricted to the hilly regions of North India and Pakistan. Some stations did get some fairly heavy rain today in the region.

As mentioned in the last blog, the forecasted low has formed and deepened in the Bay. Its activity and strenght is to be watched in the next few days before any reasonable forecast be made. Some models suggest a north-west movement of the low, which could mean a "break monsoon" condition again. So, a better estimate can be made only on observations of the low in the bay, and seeing if the monsoon trough slides southwards in the next few days.

Mumbai should get the occasional shower for the next 2/3 days, around 10 mms of rain per day, without any large increase in rain next few days.

Friday, August 10, 2007

The deep depression has moved away from India, and is now a low off the Sindh coast. Cloud imagery and pressure readings show the system to be weakening and chances of a cyclone forming off this system are poor. Rain amounts too have been lesser in Sindh. However, rain can be expected in north east Oman and parts of eastern Arabia on Saturday.

But much rain has been dumped by this system in coastal Gujarat and Kutch. Upto 750 mms in Veraval, 500mms in Porbunder in 2/3 days and 470 mms in Talala in a day.

Now, as the IMD forecasts the western end of the monsoon trough to shift north, heavy rain may be the order of the day for a couple of days from Saturday in the north western hills. Maybe some precautionary measures in case of heavy downpours.

The plains and central India should get the welcome respite from rain now.

But another low has started forming in the Bay. It is early to estimate its strenght and its development is be watched.

Wednesday, August 08, 2007

True to the GFS forecast, the depression coming in from the land over Gujarat has merged with the upper air circulation over Gujarat.It has dumped huge amounts of rain over the last 2 days in Gujarat and Maharashtra. Some of the rain amounts speak for themselves;

AUGUST 7TH.: in cms SAURASHTRA, KUTCH & DIU -GujaratManavadar36Porbandar29Rajkot21Keshod18Sutrapada18Gondal17VIDARBHA -MaharashtraArmoori37Brahmpuri35Arjunimorgaon23Umrer20Deori18These are figures which must have brought flood and caused damage to the affected regions.

Now, as mentioned in my last blog, this combined system, is on its way westwards. It is gaining in intensity, and can become a cyclone, or at least a deep depression, in the next 24 hrs. Heading westwards, Oman is in its path, as on now, and may get heavy rain Friday/Saturaday. But the strenght of the system should diminish, by the time it reaches north east Oman.

But with the sucking in of the energy and the swirling winds, Maharashtra and Mumbai will get a respite from rain, and sunny spells from Thursday for a few days.

Extreme Heat in Kuwait & Saudi:

In Kuwait, Abdaly, recorded 51.9 c , which is a new record for the highest temperature ever in Kuwait. And in Saudi, Al Ahsa reached its highest ever temperature of 50.8 c.

Tuesday, August 07, 2007

Sunday's depressions over the Bay intensified into a deep depression and crossed the Orissa coast on Monday.It moved westward and crossed through Chattisgarh,East M.P and now seems to be moving towards Gujarat. The south west flow of winds due to the depression, and the off shore trough remaining upto the Karnatak coast only, restricted the to the north of the Kerala coast and north of interior Karnataka. Same maybe the case with the fresh low.

Now, something interesting. An upper air cyclonic swirl over North Arabian Sea and coastal Gujarat, has already poured very heavy rain, from 100mms to 380 mms(Okha), over Gujarat. This sea based circulation is now set to merge with the land based low and move to sea as a single entity.(Maybe all the way to Oman). The combination will set off swirling heavy rain over the North Maharashtra coast and Gujarat region,including very heavy rain over coastal Gujarat till Friday.

Meanwhile, the 2 pacific storms have moved west north west, thus somewhat helping the bay branch of the monsoon . It will provide some strenght to the new low, set to form in the bay by 10th. of August.The IMD update predicts a similar low.The fresh low, will surely intensify, and cross the Orissa coast by 15/16 August.

Sunday, August 05, 2007

BEWARE THE MARS HOAX: It's August, which means it's time for the annual Mars Hoax. An email is going around claiming that Mars will approach Earth on August 27th; the encounter will be so close, the email states, that Mars will rival the full Moon in size and brightness. (Imagine the tides!) Don't believe it. The Mars Hoax email first appeared in 2003. On August 27th of that year, Mars really did come historically close to Earth. But the email's claim that Mars would rival the Moon was grossly exaggerated. Every August since 2003, the email has staged a revival.Here's something that is true: Mars is having a close encounter with the Pleiades star cluster, easily seen in the eastern sky before sunrise. Especially good mornings to look are August 6th and 7th when the crescent Moon joins the planet and the cluster to form a pretty celestial triangle.

Friday, August 03, 2007

The west end of the monsoon trough interacting with a weak W.D. produced heavy rains in New Delhi. It was a pocket of very heavy rainfall, and some interesting facts of New Delhi rain figures, as per information with me.

The rain recorded on the morning of 2nd. Aug. at Safdarjung for the past 24 hrs. was 167 mms. Now the total expected in August as per normal is 259 mms. That means almost 70% of the month's rain in 1 day. The heaviest ever in August fall in 24 hrs. at Safdarjung was 184 mms in 1961.For Palam it was 138 mms in the 24 hrs, on 2nd. August. There the monthly normal for August is 284 mms. That again means around 55% of the month's rain, and the heaviest ever in a day in August at Palam was also 184 mms. in 1967.

Well, heavy falls were estimated to some extent at the west end of the monsoon axis (previous blog).

The "low" in the Bay seems to be forming now, and may concentrate sooner than expected. Good widespread rain has already commenced on the west coast, and the rain area will spread to central India by Friday. International weather forecasts suggest this "low" to move west, and cross through central India upto Gujarat. If so, very good rains can be expected all over the country in the next week. The forecasts also indicate the "low" crossing over into the Arabian Sea. For that, we will have to wait and watch.

Another Bay "low " is forecasted around the 9/10th.(maybe remnants of the Pacific typhoon) of August. We certainly have very interesting weather systems forecasted for the first half of August. With the rain fall departure for India coming down to just +2% for the end of July, a wet first half could do well to bring up the rain departure.