Food security was a great challenge before
our country in the fifties and sixties. Thanks to the hard work of our farmers and
scientists and to the package of services and public policies introduced by Central and
State governments, we have by and large succeeded in building a satisfactory food security
system at the national level. The Challenge now is the development of a sustainable
nutrition security system at the household level. Household nutrition involves physical
and economic access to balanced diets and safe drinking water for the children, women and
men of every family. This goal can be achieved only through an accelerated programme of
employment and income generation and through education. The challenge of creating more
skilled jobs in the country can be met in the short term by using the underutilized
opportunities in the farm sector.

I have submitted a plan to the Prime
Minister for creating 100 million jobs in the rural sector by the year 2000 A.D. by giving
an employment and income generation orientation for crop husbandry, animal husbandry,
agro-forestry, fisheries, agro-processing and agro-based industry sectors during the Eight
Plan. The Plan, drawn up with the help of a team led by Dr. Rangaswami, former adviser to
the Planning Commission, focusses on the vast and underutilized potential in food-crops,
oilseeds, cotton, sugarcane, horticulture., sericulture, dairy development, poultry,
agriculture and agro-forestry and adumbrates concrete schemes for exploiting this huge
potential.

In this context, it is essential to evolve
a plan for maximizing use of land and increase its productivity by adopting
multi-disciplinary approach in the areas of agriculture, horticulture, soil conservation,
etc. Training in the reclamation of land and land use patterns becomes important for teams
of functionaries and farmers.

While diversifying the farm sector to
promote employment opportunities, we will have to identify thrust areas such as
agriculture, sericulture, aquaculture, poultry, dairy and forestry;evolve appropriate
processing and preserving methods for the produce;and develop post-harvest technology and
communication facilities for transporting it to markets. In this regard, establishment of
a proper linkage between the industrial and agricultural sectors to produce agricultural
equipment or tools becomes essential.

Internationally, if the industrialized
countries abolish the high subsidies they are currently giving to their farmers, our
products raised on Gandhiji's principle of "production by masses" will become
highly cost-competitive. Decentralised production supported by a few key centralised
services, preferably operated by educated youth belonging to landless labour families, can
help to improve the efficiency of productive and post harvest technologies, in addition to
providing employment to persons who will otherwise migrate to towns and cities.

In order to convert this vision into
reality, the Government of India has decided to establish a Small Farmers Agri-Business
Consortium (SFAC) as an autonomous corporate body to support innovative income and
employment generating schemes. The major goal of SFAC will be to promote enterprises which
help optimise the benefits of the natural and human endowments in the identified project
areas on an ecologically sustainable basis. The projects will have a built-in bias towards
the economically and socially disadvantaged sections of the rural population.

The Planning Commission is developing the
detailed project proposals, containing a portfolio of well-defined tasks together with
implementation mechanisms, a task which will need the support of all the experts in the
area of rural development and micro-level planning.

In 1988 soon after Mikhail Gorbachev launched
his revolutionary program in the USSR and the international initiatives that have since
resulted in the collapse of the Iron Curtain and the end of the Cold War, the
International Commission on Peace and Food (ICPF) was established by a group of concerned
scientists and professionals from twenty nations under the chairmanship of Dr. M.S.
Swaminathan of India. ICPF's objective is to capitalize on the uncommon opportunities
created by rapid and radical changes in the international environment to redirect
humanity's efforts and precious resources to accelerate development at the national and
international level.

In 1991, the Commission undertook a country
study of India with the objective of evolving strategies to eradicate poverty and
employemnt. The study was supported by grants from IDRC of Canada and The Mother's Service
Society of Pondicherry. The exciting conclusions of the study, which are summarized in
this volume, present a strategy to generate 100 million new jobs in India by the year
2000. The essence of the approach utlizes India's competitive advantage in commercial
agriculture and agro-industry as an engine to propel rapid grwoth in incomes and
employment opportunities throughout the economy.

The study team was headed by Dr. G. Rangaswami,
former Vice-Chancellor of the Tamil Nadu Agricultural University, Adviser (Agriculture) to
the Union Planning Commission and to the Commonwealth Secretariat. The report is based on
a series of ten sector studies prepared by Dr. Rangaswami, which form a separate document
entitled, "Potentials for Increasing Agricultural Productivity in India, Volume
II." Dr. S.P. Gupta and Mr. N.C Verma of the Indian Council for Research on
International Economic Relations provided important analysis of overall employment
requirements for the country.

The findings of the study were examined and
enthusiastically endorsed at an international meeting of ICPF members conducted in Madras
during October 1991. Subsequently the report was examined by an expert group composed of
Mr. C. Subramaniam, Dr. M.S. Swaminathan, and Dr. V. Kurien and then presented to a larger
group of experts at a two-day meeting organised by the Institute of Rural Management at
Anand, Gujarat. Both groups supported the findings of the report and recommended immediate
steps to implement the strategy.

During December 1991, and January 1992, a series
of meetings were called by the Prime Minister, Mr. P.V. Narasimha Rao, and Mr. Pranab
Mukherjee, Deputy Chairman of the Planning Commission of concerned ministries. In February
1992, the Government formally decided to adopt the strategy and incorporate it in India's
8th Five Year Plan. A special provision was also included in the Union Finance Minister's
1992 budget.Since then, steps have been initiated to constitute the Small Farmers
Agri-Business Consortium to centrally coordinate the Government's role as a catalyst for
implementation of the strategy. Sixteen districts have been identified by state
governments around the country from implementation during the first phase. Work has
already begun in Pune District, Maharashtra, Dharmapuri District in Tamil Nadu, and in
Pondicherry.

Special mention is appropriate for the dedicated
efforts of Mr. C. Subramaniam, Dr. M.S. Swaminathan and Mr. B.S. Raghavan (IAS Retd.) to
convert the Prosperity 2000 vision into a living reality for the country.

There is ample evidence that
accelerated agricultural development can be a powerful engine for the growth of industry
and a stimulus to rapid advancement of an entire economy. Nobel prize winning economist,
Sir Arthur Lewis, traced the origins of England's Industrial Revolution to increasing
productivity and purchasing power on the farms. The rapid industrialization of Punjab
following the success of Green Revolution is but one of many confirmations of this
principle in India.

India--with its conducive and varied climate, the
largest irrigated area of any country in the world and still substantial untapped
irrigation potential, its vast population and huge reservoir of technical and scientific
manpower, and four decades of experience in raising food production to meet the needs of
an expanding population--is today poised for a breakthrough in agriculture that can double
food production and total exports, virtually eradicate rural unemployment and poverty, and
energize the entire economy for rapid growth.

In order to achieve full employment and raise its
entire population above the poverty line by the year 2000, India needs to create
additional employment for 100 million persons and raise the incomes of millions of
under-employed persons. This report presents a program to achieve these goals utilizing
the country's competitive advantage in labour-intensive agricultural crops and allied
industries.

The objectives of the program are to double
agricultural production in ten years, achieve complete nutritional self-sufficiency for
the country, and generate Rs 400,000 million in exports of sugar, fruits, vegetables,
fish, silk and cotton textiles.

The program will generate a minimum growth rate of
more than 4% in the agricultural sector, generate at least 100 million new jobs, add an
additional Rs750,000 million to rural incomes, and raise virtually 100% of rural families
above the poverty line. The multiplier effect of skyrocketing rural demand will stimulate
sufficient increases in the income and employment for the urban poor to raise nearly all
urban families above the poverty line, eliminate the country's foreign exchange crisis and
transform India into a world market leader in several categories of agriculture-based
exports.

India has demonstrated its capacity for survival and
self-sufficiency. It is time for a shift in perspective from struggling to meet minimum
needs to striving to achieve maximum potentials. The strategy set forth in this paper
envisions the addition of 15 million hectares of irrigated land for cultivation with high
value added crops such as cotton, sugar, oilseeds, fruits and vegetables, and intensive
aquaculture and the reclamation of 8 million hectares of wasteland for forestry and fodder
crops.

New policies, new institutions, new modes of
commercial organization will be needed in order to implement the program in the desired
time-frame. But more than all these essential ingredients, awakening the nation to the
reality of its potentials and galvanizing the political will of the leadership for urgent
and decisive implementation will be absolutely critical for success.

This paper is a strategy statement, not a complete
plan. It draws attention to the country's vast untapped potentials and a means of
converting them into prosperity for the nation. The programs discussed in the paper are an
illustrative rather than an exclusive or comprehensive list of high potential areas.
Important sectors such as plantation crops and poultry have not been covered at all. All
the recommendations are in consonance with the main components of the draft Agricultural
Policy Resolutions put forth by recent governments.

This volume is divided into three parts. Part I
presents an overview of the strategy, a summary of the programs, a brief description of
benefits, and a discussion of critical success factors. Part II describes the major
programs in greater detail. Part III examines important issues relating to
implementation of the strategy. Volume II contains a series of technical and economic
studies of specific program areas which form the basis for the data and estimates
presented in Volume I.

The 1992 UN
Conference on Environment and Development plans to adopt as one of its main objectives
Agenda 21--the total eradication of absolute poverty in the world by the year 2010. As the
home of 30% of the more than a billion people in the world who live below the poverty
line, India has the greatest stake of any nation in the achievement of this goal and can
make the greatest contribution to its fulfillment.

In 1963 the UN
Food and Agriculture Organization sent a team to experts to India to assess the country's
foodgrain production prospects for coming years and the threat of famine. After completing
a thorough study and conferring with their Indian counterparts, the team filed a report
projecting a 10% increase in foodgrain production by 1970 and identifying an imminent
danger of widespread famine.

Actually India's grain production rose by 50% during
that period and 100% during the decade following submission of their report. The FAO did
not err in their projections, they simply based them on past trends, known limitations and
the country's unmet needs. But propelled by dire necessity, aware of its needs and aware
too of a viable strategy to meet those needs, during the mid 1960s the Government of India
launched a massive program to increase food production. Green Revolution defied all the
predictions of the experts and ushered the country into a new phase of self-sufficiency in
food production.

In spite of these remarkable achievements, the
country has not shaken off the legacy of past thinking. The country has a food policy, but
no overall policy for agricultural development.1 The focus continues to be on survival and
self-sufficiency rather than prosperity, on meeting minimum needs rather than realizing
maximum potentials. Projections of growth in India are still based on extrapolation from
past achievements as they were in the 1960s, rather than on an objective awareness of the
vast opportunities for rapid growth. Propelled by unprecedented opportunity, the country
is once again poised to exceed even the most optimistic estimates of the experts. The
essential requirement is a shift in perspective from need-based to opportunity-based
planning. The strategy outlined in this paper is based on such a perspective of India's
potentials.

At the same time, India faces great economic
challenges today that necessitate bold new initiatives, as exemplified by crises in the
balance of foreign exchange reserves and the central government budget deficit. There is
also growing evidence that the very programs which have been successful in moving the
nation forward up to now may be progressively less effective in the future and need to be
replaced or supplemented. According to a recent World bank study, the changing complexion
of poverty and others circumstances in the country suggest that the factors, including
government programs, that contributed to poverty reduction in last 15 years are unlikely
to yield similar reductions in future. 2 Alternative and additional options and instruments will be
needed.3

A new atmosphere of confidence and crisis has
emerged, which is reflected in the speed and authority with which the present government
has just introduced institutional reforms to liberalize industrial policy, improve fiscal
management and stimulate investment. But even when pressing short term problems are
brought under control, compelling problems of poverty and unemployment will remain to be
addressed.

India's population is expected to increase by
another 100 million persons before the year 2000. The Government of India estimates that
despite significant progress in the 1970s and 1980s, nearly 30% of the population--more
than 250 million people comprising 40 million families--still remain below the poverty
line; and a growing share of this group are landless, wage dependent households in rural
and urban areas. (See Table 1).4

There are presently 28 million unemployed and
severely under-employed persons in the country. Between 1990 and 1995, India's labour
force is projected to increase by 37 million persons. Therefore, 65 million new jobs will
be needed to meet the employment needs of the country by 1995, over 100 million by the
year 2000 (Table 2). To achieve full employment level will require a
growth in employment of 4% per annum, compared to the country's present rate of less than
1.5%. A doubling in the growth rate for new jobs will be the minimum requirement for
eradicating unemployment during the present decade. 5

Agriculture is vital to overcoming poverty in the
country, both as a provider of food and of jobs. It is the main source of employment for
70% of the population. Health as well as economics demands greater emphasis on
agriculture. A 33% increase in per capita food consumption is needed to bring the diet of
the present population up to international nutritional standards for caloric intake. In
order to meet the food requirements of all its people at the turn of the century, India's
total food production should double.

A recent study entitled The Competitive Advantage of
Nations examines that various factors and conditions which have enabled nine
industrialized nations to obtain pre-eminent competitive positions in world export
industries.6 Unique national advantages
have enabled tiny Netherlands with a population of less than 15 million and an area one
hundredth the size of India to corner 64% of the world market for cut flowers, 61% for
eggs, 57% for live pigs, 56% for living plants, 53% for liquid milk, 43% for fresh
tomatoes and 36% for potatoes.

India possesses four outstanding competitive
advantages in agriculture comparable to those of any other country. First, it is
climatically favorable for cultivation of every economic plan species grown in other parts
of the world--ranging from temperate orchard crops like apples to tropical mangoes.
Second, the country already has the largest acreage of irrigated land in the world with
40% of the potential still to be tapped. Third, the country has a greater abundance of
manpower in all categories--skilled, unskilled, technical, scientific and managerial--than
any other nation. Fourth, the gap between present productivity and proven technological
potential is very large in most areas; yet even so, the country is already the world's
largest producer of tea, cotton, and sugar, and among the top three for foodgrains,
groundnut, coffee, eggs and milk.

A. Strategy

This report presents a strategy based on India's
natural competitive advantages to achieve the poverty eradication goals of Agenda 21 in
the Indian context well ahead of the UN deadline. The centerpiece of the strategy is
accelerated agricultural development. The strategy is based on three principles:

Intensive Agriculture: An agricultural driven
strategy is the only one that can generate sufficient employment for the available labor
force in the foreseeable future.

Exports: Until now India's planning has
focussed on increasing production to meet domestic demand. The strategy shifts focus from
meeting minimum needs to achieving maximum potentials through an aggressive export drive.
By stimulating greater demand for agricultural produce, farm exports will increase rural
purchasing power and propel economic growth.

Agro-industries: Since agro-based industries
like textiles and sugar are already the largest generators of employment and national
income, priority development of this sector is the best strategy for stimulating overall
growth of manufacturing jobs and output in the country.

The country's recent experience has demonstrated
that agriculture and allied industries (which represent one-third of GDP) can be a
powerful lever for promoting or retarding overall growth of national income. The growth of
the economy by 10.6% in 1988-89, a year when agricultural production rose 21%, slowed to
around 5.2% in 1989-90, a poor monsoon year when agriculture grew by only 1.7%. During the
next decade, this strategy calls for achieving an annual growth rate in agriculture of at
least 4% (versus 2.3% in the 1980s) to generate overall employment growth in the economy
of at least 4%.

Since 80% of the rural jobs and 15-20% of urban
employment held by low income families are in agriculture, eradication of poverty
necessitates first and foremost raising the productivity and incomes of agricultural
lands. And since 44% of rural poor households are engaged in agricultural labour, emphasis
must be on programs that generate remunerative rural employment.

2. Generate an additional Rs 770,000 million of
agricultural income (4% annual growth) driving an increase of non-farm income by Rs
1,500,000 million in ten years and contributing a total of 4% to annual growth of GDP. 7

3. Generate additional exports of Rs 400,000 million
(equivalent to 125% of total exports in 1990-91).

4. Produce sufficient foodgrains, fruits,
vegetables, dairy products and fish to meet the full nutritional requirements of the
population.

The annual rate of investment needed to achieve
these goals by 2000 is equal to 7% of the annual investments for the Eighth Five Year
Plan.

C. Programs

The programs in this paper represent a graded scheme
designed to utilize available resources to attack poverty at its roots and eliminate it,
rather than merely alleviate or temporarily suspend its impact on the population. They
focus on selected crops and agro-based industries with the largest technical, economic,
market and employment potential. All the programs--

* Utilize proven technologies.

* Create a large number of new jobs for unskilled
and skilled workers.

* Tap huge market potentials, either domestic or
export or both.

* Generate high value-added and profit to the
producers

The central components of the strategy for
achievement by the year 2000 are summarized below:

1. Foodgrains: Raise foodgrain production
from 177 million tons to 220 million tons (sufficient to meet projected domestic demand)
by increasing per hectare yields of wheat from 2.3 tons to 3.1 tons and rice from 1.76
tons to 2.15 tons and bringing another 2 million hectares of irrigated lands under high
yielding varieties of wheat and rice. The shift of existing crops from ordinary to high
yield varieties will increase employment per hectare by 50%.

2. Cotton: Triple the area under irrigated
cotton with an addition of 4.8 million hectares to raise total production from 13.3
million bales to 26 million bales. Increase spinning capacity and expand weaving capacity
in powerloom, mill and handloom sector to meet the projected 50% increase in per capita
cloth consumption, generate employment for 11 million persons and export Rs 250,000
million in cotton textiles.9

3. Sugar: Extend the area under sugarcane by
an additional 1.6 million hectares and raise average yields from 60 to 80 tons per hectare
to increase sugar production from 11 million tons to 26 million tons to meet rising demand
(projected at 22-23 million tons within India by 2000) and increase exports to 3-4 million
tons annually.

4. Horticulture: Raise fruit production by
50% and vegetable production by 100% to meet the full nutritional requirements of the
population and generate 25% exportable surpluses through establishment of 2000 model
horticulture production and processing centers covering 3 million hectares of irrigated
land throughout the country, yielding an average of Rs 18,000 per hectare profit for
3 million farmers, generating 3 million year-round jobs, and capable of raising a total of
6 million families above the poverty line.

5. Aquaculture: Raise inland fish production
by 4.5 million tons (66% of projected domestic demand) through development of 50,000
hectares of intensive fish farms generating Rs 1,250,000 per hectare profit for 250,000
families and full-time employment for one million people.

6. Sericulture: Double mulberry silk
production by establishing 500 integrated model silk village clusters, each cultivating
175 hectares of mulberry, to generate an average net income of Rs 30,000 per family for
250,000 families (80% landless) along with 750,000 additional full-time jobs.

7. Oilseeds: Expand the area under irrigated
oilseeds by 3 million hectares and improve yields to produce an additional 7.5 million
tons of oilseeds to fully meet domestic demand.

8. Wasteland Reclamation for Forestry and Fodder:
An extent of 4.5 million hectares of wastelands will be reclaimed and utilized to meet the
entire projected demand for industrial wood and provide sufficient animal feed for
continued expansion of dairy development programs.

9. Dairy & Other crops: The program areas
listed above cover only about 50% of total output in agricultural, animal husbandry,
fisheries and forestry. Important categories such as plantation crops, dairy, poultry, and
marine fisheries have not been included. Programs for the accelerated growth of these
crops should also be developed in order to double total food production within the decade.
For the purpose of assessing the results of the strategy, it is assumed that output for
these other sectors--with the exception of dairy at 3%--will grow at an average, annual
rate of 2.4%, the average for all of agriculture during the last decade.

Special reference needs to be made to the dairy
industry, because of its large size and huge employment potential. According to
projections by the National Dairy Development Board, total milk production will increase
from 51.4 million tons (values at Rs 257,000 million ) to 70 million tons (valued at Rs
350,000 million) during the 1990s. An 18% increase in the number of milch animals in the
country is expected to generate 11.6 million additional jobs (SPYs). We assume a more
conservative increase of 5.8 million jobs in the dairy sector.

D. Benefits

The programs listed in the previous section are
described further in Part II of this paper (Volume I) and in the supplementary papers
comprising Volume II. The program targets for the year 2000 in terms of cultivated area,
yield, production, additional jobs and increase in farm income (value added) are
summarized in Table 3.

1. Stimulates Growth of GDP: The programs
will generate an additional Rs 770,000 million a year in farm income (4% annual
growth in value added) and an additional Rs 600,000 million in income from downstream
agro-industries for a total direct addition to GDP of Rs 1,370,000 million (see Table 3, 4, & 5).

The projected growth of farm income by 4% annually
as a result of the programs will act as a stimulant on other sectors of the economy, both
rural and urban due to the increased demand for production inputs such as seeds and
fertilizers, farm machinery, processing, transport, construction and marketing. It will
also increase the purchasing power of the rural population and thereby stimulate demand
for consumer goods--food, clothing, bicycles, housing, jewelry, recreation, tourism, etc.
Applying a variety of income multipliers developed for India by World bank economists, it
is projected that the direct growth of farm income will contribute to an overall increase
of gross domestic product by 24% to 42% in ten years (see Table 6).

2. Generation of Agro-based Exports: The
programs can contribute more than Rs 400,000 million to India's exports, an amount equal
to 125% of the country's total exports in 1990-91 (Table 7). The
programs do not depend on import of materials or equipment, with the exception perhaps of
sophisticated textile machinery for export quality materials and food processing
equipment. In addition, increased production of oilseeds constitute Rs 90,000 million
of import substitution. Therefore the overall impact on the country's foreign exchange
balance will be very favorable.

3. Eradicates Unemployment: The programs will
generate 43 to 75 million direct new farm jobs and 13 million direct downstream jobs in
agro-industries such as sugar, flour and oil mills; cotton and silk spinning, weaving and
garment making; fruit and vegetable processing; fish feed and hatcheries, etc. (see Table 3 and 4). 10

The increased output generated by these activities
will give rise to 47 million additional jobs in rural areas and rural towns in transport,
marketing, services, construction, etc. The growth in farm income will stimulate the
growth of non-farm rural employment by at 27 million jobs in ten years, which includes the
direct and indirect jobs created in industry). The total increase will be a minimum of 70
million rural jobs in ten years. (Applying another set of multipliers indicates that the
actual increase in rural jobs could be as high as 105 million.) These new jobs will
increase rural employment opportunities by between 30 to 45 %, creating a strong
counter-magnet to urban migration of rural job-seekers.

There will also be a significant increase in
employment in urban areas for manufacturing and marketing. The projected increase in jobs
for the entire economy (rural farm and non-farm and urban) ranges from 78 to 103 million
(depending upon the assumed job level in 1990--see Table 8, and
footnote 43.) This level of job creation should be sufficient to
virtually eliminate unemployment and under-employment in the economy.

4. Cost Effective Job Creation: The cost for
creating new jobs through this approach works out to Rs 19,000 (Rs 11,000 per farm job and
Rs 45,700 per job in industry). The investment per job is very favorable when compared
with the average cost of creating new jobs in the public and private
sector--Rs 2,440,000 for public and Rs 250,000 for private sector (see Table 9, for investment and income comparisons).

5. Jobs for the Poor and Unskilled: The vast
majority of persons below the poverty line are small and marginal farmers and casual
laborers in rural areas who lack year-round employment. Creating jobs and assured incomes
for 100 million persons can generate employment for two or three members of every
household which is presently below the poverty line. This is the only possible means of
discouraging migration from rural to urban areas where unemployment rates are around 50%
higher.

About 80% of the new jobs directly created by the programs are in
the unskilled and semi-skilled category. This figure is somewhat misleading because it
probably will include 7 or 8 million farmers producing high yielding varieties and
utilizing sophisticated production technologies. Raising the knowledge and skills of
farmers for higher productivity is an important strategy for increasing the knowledge
content of rural jobs.

Although it is highly desirable to upgrade the skills of the entire
population; even if employment opportunities were immediately available the size of the
population makes it a daunting challenge. The programs have the advantage that they will
absorb large numbers of persons without the need for a long training period and thus deal
with the first priority of providing them with assured work and year-round income to lift
them above the poverty line.

Expanding jobs and raising incomes in agriculture will be especially
beneficial for increasing employment opportunities for women. Overall women represent only
14% of the work force, but more than 16% of farmers and 30% of all those employed in
agriculture. Nineteen percent of the additional jobs are in animal husbandry, an
occupation which involves a much higher percentage of women.

6. Increasing Rural Wage Incomes: The programs will add Rs
500,000 million to the incomes of cultivators and the wages of farm laborers-- an amount
equal to Rs 12,700 for every additional person employed in agriculture (Table 10).

The country's 70 million small and marginal farmers with land
holdings up to 2 hectares in size represent 75% of all cultivators and 55% of all rural
poor. The programs target these groups by providing opportunities for much higher yields
and incomes from small parcels of land. For example, a mix of vegetables and fruit trees
can generate upwards of Rs 25,000 net profit per hectare. Intensive aquaculture can
generate Rs 50,000 from a 0.2 hectare plot. In addition, the extension of irrigation to
presently dry lands will substantially increase the productivity and profitability of
small holdings.

Agricultural labor represents the second largest group of rural
poor. A substantial portion of the additional farm income will come in the form of assured
jobs and higher wages for persons in the category. 11

7. Employment for the Skilled and the Educated:
The programs will directly generate 10 million for skilled and educated unemployed persons
(Table 11), equal to about 50% of the current backlog in this category.
The programs will also stimulate demand for a very large number of educated persons to
occupy positions in management, research, extension, banking, marketing and other rural
institutions. In addition, a vast array of productive skills will be needed in both rural
and urban areas for manufacturing, construction, transportation, communication and other
services. Together the increased demand for persons in this category is likely to exceed
20 million and could generate a shortage of some categories of essential skills, a
situation which already exists in some parts of the country for basic skills such as
carpenters, masons and electricians.

8. Stimulus to Manufacturing: Domestic demand for foodgrains
is not a viable commercial basis for raising agriculture production and incomes.
Agriculture has to shift to value added products that can be exported or utilized as raw
materials for domestic industry. The programs identified for priority attention in this
paper meet this important criterion.

Further processing of these agricultural products can generate an
additional Rs 600,000 million per year in income from industry, equivalent to about 43% of
current GDP in manufacturing (Table 4).

9. Low Capital Investment: The capital requirements for the
programs are summarized in Table 12 . The investment in agricultural is
Rs 362,000 million for priority programs and another Rs 114,000 million for
other crops. Over ten years, it comes to Rs 48,000 million per year, which represents only
3.0% of the total annual investment (public & private) envisioned for the Eighth Five
Year Plan. Assuming that the investment is shared by public and private sector in the same
proportion as overall investment in the Eighth Plan, then the public sector investment in
these programs--24% of which is allocated for other crops--would equal 76% of the total
public sector investment in agriculture. 12

The investment in agro-industries averages Rs 60,000 million per
year, equivalent to 25% of annual investment in industry during the Eighth Plan. The
annual cost of the programs (including non-program crops) represents only 7% of annual
investment in the Eighth Plan.

Afforestation & Conservation: The strategy envisions the
reclamation of 8 million hectares of wastelands for forestry and fodder production. This
is expected to generate 4 million jobs for landless persons, produce sufficient industrial
hardwood to meet the entire requirements of the country by year 2000, supply much needed
fuelwood for rural households and fodder for the dairy industry.

E. Critical Success factors

Many essential elements including physical inputs,
technology, training and extension, marketing, institutional support and public policy
will be needed to implement the programs and achieve the results described above. These
are discussed in detail in the section on Implementation Issues, which constitutes Part
III of this paper.

Above and apart from these elements, there are
several factors which are absolutely critical to the success of the programs. Without
them, the plan will remain on paper or fail to achieve its goals.

1. Awareness of India's Potentials: An
ambitious strategy to eradicate unemployment and poverty within ten years cannot be
undertaken unless the political, commercial and intellectual leaders of the country are
able to see the reality of the opportunities open to India for accelerated progress. Only
a vision of the potentials--like that which inspired the country's freedom fighters and
the fathers of the Green Revolution in the 1960s--can generate the commitment, release the
energy and excite the imagination of the nation to transform itself from a poor developing
country into a world economic giant.

Once this vision has been created, it must be
communicated to the people and inspire them to action. But the awareness of the leadership
is the first essential step, without which other steps cannot achieve the desired results.

2. Political Will for Action: Countless
obstacles--which any seasoned politician or entrepreneur can enumerate--stand in the way
of achieving the plan. The best intentions and planning in the world cannot overcome them.
It will require a great determination by the leaders of the country to sweep aside the
obstacles and create a national sense of urgency or emergency for eradicating poverty and
ushering the country into prosperity.

3. New Institutional Set-up: It is not
realistic to think of totally revamping the nation's economic institutions as a
prerequisite for implementing the programs. Nor is it reasonable to expect that ambitious
targets can be achieved through existing structures functioning in their present manner
and present dilatory pace.

At least in the early phase it will be essential to
provide a stream-lined administrative set-up capable of rapid, coordinated action and to
work through public or private sector institutions which are free from the legacy of
outmoded rules and customs which make speed and efficiency impossible.

The strategy envisions the establishment in the
first year of pilot districts in each state, each under the direction of a
specially-constituted development administration charged and empowered to implement the
programs within the district on an emergency basis, free from external interference.

4. People's Participation: Far from being a
mere catch-word to signify an enlightened and democratic approach to development, people's
participation is the one absolutely essential requirement for the successful
implementation of the plan--for the simple reason that the plan has to be carried out by
the population at large, with the government playing only a catalytic and supportive role.
In order to successfully elicit this participation on a large scale and in a short period
of time, the population must be made fully aware of the potentials for its own
development.

In order for the plan to succeed, four conditions
are essential:

a. the population must awaken to the opportunities
open to them for rising from poverty to prosperity;

b. their energies must be fully released and channel
to avail of the opportunities;

c. they must possess or acquire the necessary skills
and knowledge;

d. they must be given the necessary physical and
institutional support.

Increasing productivity, incomes and jobs in
agriculture has to be founded on a proper utilization of the country's enormous water
resources. India already ranks first in the world in area under irrigated cultivation.
Expanding the area under irrigated crops is an essential part of the strategy presented in
this paper. According to World Bank studies of 58 developing countries, a 1% increase in
total irrigated area generates 1.6% increase in crop output and a return on investment of
17%. It is estimated that each additional million rupees of investment in irrigation
generates between 50 and 100 jobs, i.e. Rs 10,000 to 20,000 per job--which is almost
identical with the costs per job for the programs described in this paper. 13

Presently there are over 80 million hectares of
irrigated land in the country, representing 30% of the gross cultivated area. An
additional 30 million hectares of cultivable land have yet to be developed. Out of the
already developed irrigation potential, 9 million hectares valued at Rs 250,000 (current
cost) remains unutilized for various reasons. Therefore, the total unutilized irrigation
potential comes to about 40 million hectares, equivalent to 50% of the present irrigated
area.

Our strategy calls for tapping one third of this
unutilized potential--15 million hectares--by the year 2000. Primary emphasis should be
placed on small and medium irrigation projects and watershed management technology, which
are far less capital intensive, generate more employment and are less disruptive to the
environment.14This
goal is lower than the Seventh Plan target of 2.5 million hectares per year, which has not
been fully achieved. Investment costs for irrigation have not been included in the
estimate of capital requirements, since they are well within the amounts likely to be
allocated for irrigation in the Eighth Plan.

Extending the area under irrigation is not enough.
There is tremendous potential for conserving and enhancing the nation's precious water
reserves by:

-- recharging underground aquifers with rain water
that is now going largely to waste and contributing to erosion of topsoil. A massive
program should be instituted for recharging aquifers during the monsoon rains.

-- utilizing the water for the high value added
crops (e.g. fine export varieties of cotton that cannot be grown on dry lands) which
create more jobs, more farm income and export earnings.

-- eliminating wastage and run-off through land
conservation techniques, farmer education and incentives for adopting water saving
technologies such as sprinkler and drip irrigation.

B. Extend Green Revolution

Massive food imports in the mid 1960s to avert the
very real threat of famine created a great sense of national urgency, focused public
attention on the need for increasing food production and spurred all levels of government
to act dynamically and expeditiously to address the crisis. The Green Revolution was
launched primarily in the wheat growing areas of the northwestern states, and achieved a
doubling of the country's foodgrain production in the first ten years. Since then total
foodgrain production has increased from 50 million tonnes to 177 million. With the
achievement of food self-sufficiency and elimination of the threat of famine, the sense of
urgency has passed away and national attention has shifted to other areas.

Green Revolution was the result of an integrated
development strategy instituted by the government involving the introduction of new high
yield varieties (HYVs), a national demonstration program consisting of more than 100,000
plots on farmers' fields, an increase in irrigated land, improved methods of cultivation,
the use of chemical fertilizers and pesticides, provision of a guaranteed floor price,
creation of a national foodgrain marketing organization (Food Corporation of India),
production of hybrid seeds, agricultural research and educational programs and other
factors.

The demand by HYVs for assured water supply led to
the initial concentration of growth to wheat growing areas with irrigation like Punjab and
Haryana, which account for 30% of the increase in wheat output since 1970. The spread of
irrigation extended the revolution into Western Uttar Pradesh and other states. The
eastern states were almost bypassed by the initial thrust, but wheat is now grown in
Eastern U. P. and Northern Bihar and yields per hectare have improved everywhere. Growth
in productivity for rice over the last 20 years has been at about half the level of wheat.

Wherever Green Revolution has spread, employment
opportunities both in agriculture and industry have grown significantly leading even to
shortages of labour in some areas.15In agriculturally advanced areas like Punjab in the North and
Coimbatore in the South, farmers actually experience a shortage of labour, despite the
migration of workers from other regions.

The spread of Green Revolution is still
incomplete--only 55% of total area under cereals has been covered by HYVs. Even today
cereal productivity in India is 30% below the world average and 36% below the average
level of Asian countries. This has resulted in an increasing concentration of the poor in
specific regions and occupational groups.16The percentage of rural and urban population living below the
poverty line ranges from a low of 8.4% in the Northwestern region to a high of 54% in the
states comprising the Eastern region. Sixty percent of those below the poverty line are
now found in the Central and Eastern states, which comprise a population of 412 million
people. 17

The demand for foodgrains in India is projected to
reach 220 million tons by 2000. This will require a 25% percent increase in total
production. Extending the area under irrigated foodgrains has been an important strategy
for increasing production and is still given prominence in planning for future growth.
However, other intensive crops generate more employment, value added for the farmer and
competitive export potentials than foodgrains.

The strategy calls for only a marginal increase of 2
million hectares in the area under irrigated foodgrains over the next ten years. This will
account for 25% of the required increase in foodgrain production. The balance 75% can be
achieved by extending the area under HYVs and by upgrading traditional methods of
cultivation to modern agricultural practices in relatively backward agricultural areas
where yields are still far below the level of demonstrated potentials. The strategy
envisions an overall rise in wheat yields from 2.3 to 3.1 tons per hectare over ten years
and in rice from 1.76 to 2.15 tons.

It is difficult to identify a single other area
which can meet the country's need for both food and jobs as cost effectively as extension
of the Green Revolution to cover less developed areas of the country. Studies indicate
that the optimum strategy for creating new jobs will be to concentrate efforts for
increasing foodgrain production on relatively backward agricultural states like Bihar,
Orissa, West Bengal, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, and Maharashtra.18
Under this scenario, a doubling of agricultural production over the next 10 years could
lead to a 56-65% growth in full-time employment in agriculture (approximately 125 million
jobs).

The package of technology, training, administrative
and institutional measures needed are well known and proven. All that is needed is the
requisite political will and sense of administrative urgency.

Simultaneous efforts will be needed to shift present
grain producers to more lucrative and more labour intensive crops such as fruits,
vegetables and cash crops, so that total foodgrain production does not exceed national
requirements, including a reasonable buffer stock, and become a drain on government
resources.

Converting dryland into irrigated lands and
introducing HYVs in place of slower growing varieties is a natural strategy for less
developed agricultural areas. But for areas which have already adopted modern methods of
irrigation and cultivation a strategy is needed to further increase incomes from the land
and to intensify employment in agriculture.

Cultivation of fruits and vegetables, for which
Indian topography and agroclimate are well suited, is an ideal method for increasing the
labour intensity and income generation potential of agricultural lands while meeting the
growing need for these essential food items. Net income can range for Rs 20,000 to 35,000
per hectare, which is more than the three times the average return from cereals.
Horticulture crops can use up to 10 or 20 times more labor per hectare than cereals.
Holland shifted over to vegetables and flowers after World War II in order to create more
jobs. A shift of 5% of irrigated lands from cereals to fruits and vegetables can create
50% more productive jobs in agriculture.20

In order to meet the basic nutritional requirements
of the population, India's production of fruits and vegetables--which has tripled over the
last 50 years--needs to double again in the next five years. Horticulture also represents
an enormous export potential for India, because of the favorable tropical, subtropical and
temperate climate conditions prevailing in different parts of the country.

Indian research institutions have developed new
varieties of fruits and vegetables, many of which have yield potential two to five times
higher than existing varieties. The economic benefits of the new varieties have often been
negated by the widespread adoption of single varieties in a concentrated area, resulting
in saturation of markets at time of harvesting, plummeting prices, and abandoning of the
crop in subsequent seasons. These impediments can be overcome by establishment of
integrated horticulture projects.

Processing of fruits and vegetables can multiply
their value 50 to 500 times and open up the prospect of catering to a huge international
market. At present only 1.6% of fruits produced in the country go for processing.

The integrated horticulture development program
consists of the following elements:

1.Model Horticulture Villages: The key to
this program is development of a mixed cropping pattern to avoid overproduction of select
varieties in a given area and the linkage of production with processing and organized
marketing to eliminate flooding of the local market and falling prices during peak
seasons.

a. An area of 1000 hectares of irrigated land
suitable for intensive vegetable and fruit cultivation is identified within a cluster of
villages.

b. Half of the area is planted with a variety of
different fruits and half with different vegetables. The mixed cropping pattern consisting
of different types and varieties is done to avoid flooding the market with one or a few
crops, to introduce varieties which come to harvest at different times, and to ensure
protection against excessive vulnerability to pests.

c. A professionally-managed corporation or society
of cultivators is formed to carry out functions related to farmer education, propagation
of seed material for improved varieties, processing and marketing.

d. When the crops come to maturity, each 1000
hectare project will produce approximately 32,000 tonnes a year of fruits and vegetables
valued at Rs 95 million.

e. A processing plant is established in the village
capable of handling 50% of the total production of produce. These plants will produce a
variety of fruit juices, jams, jellies, canned fruits, tomato sauce, dried fruits,
dehydrated potatoes and onions, pickles, etc.

f. Marketing of fresh produce is done through a
producer-owned marketing organization feeding into a state or region-wide grid as in the
case of dairy products or through retail outlets set up in towns and cities similar to
those presently operated in New Delhi by National Dairy Development Board (which plans to
expand operations to other major cities). The marketing organization is essential for
distributing produce to markets with high demand and for reducing the price spread between
producer and consumer, which is presently as much as 50% for fruits and vegetables.

g. Exports may be done through technical and
commercial tie-ups with large international food companies, to ensure that the products
meet international taste and quality standards.

h. Establishment of a hybrid seed production unit
for every 20 village horticulture projects to locally produce the most suitable high
yielding varieties of fruits and vegetables.21

2. National Program: Creation of 2000 village
projects covering a total area of 2 million hectares will enable India to increase fruit
production by 50% (13.5 million tons) and vegetable production by 100% (48.5 million
tons). The village projects will be supported by establishment of 100 modern hybrid seed
production units to ensure supply of quality, high yielding seed material.

4. Income Generation: The 2000 projects will
generate a total income of nearly Rs 200,000 million annually, of which Rs 140,000 will be
direct farm income (Table 14). The export of 20 million tons of
fresh and processed fruits and vegetables would generate Rs 80,000 million in foreign
exchange earnings.

5. Job Creation: The projects will generate
full-time employment for 6 million persons in agriculture, including a large percentage of
women, and 350,000 in food processing and seed production units, including 130,000 skilled
and 30,000 technical persons (Table 15). The indirect job creation as a
result of these units will require large numbers of additional educated and technically
trained persons in extension services, banking, education and research institutions.

Most inland aquaculture in developing countries
operates with little or no technological input. Farmers simply stock local ponds and
harvest the produce. In India the average yield from inland fisheries projects is 2 to 3
tons of fish per acre per year. But proven technology has recently been established in
India on a commercial scale and is widely used in countries like Taiwan and Singapore that
can achieve yields of 50 to 500 tons per hectare per year under Indian conditions. Like
the high yielding varieties in the 1960s, this intensive fish production technology has
the potential to revolutionize food production and usher in a Blue Revolution in Indian
fisheries. But left to itself, it might take many years for this technology to become
well-known and widely adopted throughout the country.

Intensive aquaculture technology can be utilized to
provide high protein food for the rural and urban population, generate new jobs and
self-employment opportunities for the poor, and make India a major exporter of fresh water
fish to lucrative markets in the Far East, Middle East, Europe and North America. Today
marine products constitutes only 2.3% of the country's exports and 73% of marine export
revenues come from a single product, frozen shrimp, and 57% go to a single market, Japan.23Intensive inland
fish culture can raise marine exports ten-fold within a decade and break the
over-dependence on one product and one market.

Aquaculture technology, which is based on
environmentally sound practices for conserving and recycling water and organic wastes and
effluents, also has a strong ecological component. It lends itself for application on poor
or barren lands with saline soil and brackish water.

India's annual fish production is 3.3 million tons,
of which 1.5 million tons is from inland fish culture. The per capita availability of fish
remains unchanged over the past two decades at about 3.2 kg per year.24 The comparative figure for the U.S. is nearly
four times the Tamil Nadu level (though unlike India where fish is one of the main sources
of animal protein, fish consumption in the U.S. represents only 10% of total animal
protein intake). In Japan per capita consumption is around 100 kg per year.

Domestic demand for fish is expected to reach 15
million tons by the turn of the century. We propose a program that can raise per capita
availability of fish to three times the current level by year 2000, which will largely
meet the protein requirements of the population. In order to triple per capita
availability, total production must rise by 6 million tons. This significant rise in fish
production will support increased domestic consumption and generate marketable surpluses
that can be exported at attractive prices.

Although sophisticated, capital intensive technology
can be employed to achieve very high yields, we propose an intermediate level of
technology capable of producing 125 to 150 tons of fish per hectare for a capital
investment of Rs 500,000 per hectare. This technology lends itself for operation in small
ponds of 0.2 hectare size costing approximately Rs 100,000 each and generating net profits
of Rs 200,000 per pond. These ponds can be constructed in rural industrial estates
throughout the state, each estate consisting of 10 to 20 hectares of ponds and appropriate
infrastructure facilities.

Marketing is critical to the success of the program.
Market research information indicates that a significant portion of the produce could be
marketed in large cities and rural towns, especially those some distance from the ocean,
and that the remainder could be exported as frozen whole fish and fillets. Effective
marketing will require the development of an extensive procurement network, preferably a
joint-sector corporation. It will also require significant investment in cold storage
facilities, refrigerated transport and processing units. An advantage of farm-grown over
sea-caught fish is that harvesting can be timed to coincide with market demand, higher
prices, and the availability of buyers and transport.

A capital investment of Rs 65,000 million and
establishment of credit facilities of Rs 40,000 million for this program could finance
50,000 hectares of fish ponds. Financial support in the form of working capital could be
provided through NABARD (National Bank for Agricultural and Rural Development), which has
approved the technology. The program will generate approximately 6,250,000 tons of fish
per year and provide Rs 46,000 million in income to 250,000 educated, unemployed
entrepreneurs and another 750,000 farm workers. It would also provide indirect employment
in ancillary industries and businesses (processing, storage, transport, marketing,
equipment manufacturing and maintenance) for several million persons.

The program will appeal to the interests of key
groups at different levels of the society and therefore, generate the political will
required for effective implementation. To the politician, it is a program that addresses
key election issues--unemployment, rural development, food production, industrialization,
etc. At the national level, it can also be promoted as an export scheme that earns much
needed foreign exchange. To the banks, it is a viable and attractive program with high
rates of return. To the research organizations, the program offers many fields for
practically useful research. To the unemployed graduate, it offers a lucrative opportunity
for self-employment.

The program consists of

1. Establishment of approximately 2500 aquaculture
industrial estates in rural areas. Each estate consists of 20 hectares of fish ponds
equipped with water, power, water treatment systems and a technical cell run by a
qualified technical person and equipped with testing equipment.

2. Ponds can be leased to qualified individuals
(special preference can be given to the educated unemployed) and lease payments can be
made out of pond revenues.

3. A centralized hatchery, feed plant, cold storage
and processing unit will be established for every four aquaculture estates (i.e. 625
centralized units each serving 80 hectares of ponds).

4. A district level marketing organization will
coordinate collection, transport, storage and distribution of the produce. These district
level societies will feed into a national grid, similar to the one established by the
National Dairy Development Board for milk distribution.

5. Each district will also have a training institute
for to provide all the skills needed for production of fish, hatchery operations,
processing and feed production.

6. Fisheries extension officers in each district
will provide additional technical assistance to the estate technical staff and primary
producers.

7. Financial schemes can be operated through
specialized banks to provide investment and working capital.

8. Educational programs should be instituted by
agricultural universities, colleges and polytechnics to familiarize all students with the
commercial potentials of this technology and provide specialized courses in all aspects of
production.

9. Research programs should be established by
fisheries institutes to experiment with improved varieties and production techniques.

India is the largest sugar producer in the world. In
1990-91 the country manufactured 12 million tons of sugar from cane. Ten million farmers
are cultivating cane over an area of 3.4 million hectares and generating 200 million tons
of cane. About 60% of the cane goes for sugar production and 40% for processing by
traditional methods into jaggery. Yields vary widely around the country from a high of
over 100 tons per hectare in Tamil Nadu to just over 30 tons in Bihar. India's 60 tons per
hectare average is significantly lower than that of the five other major producers.
Sugarcane is among the most profitable cash crops grown in the country and generates a
high level of farm and non-farm employment.

The per capita sugar consumption of in India has
more than doubled over the past ten years and is presently around 13 kg. This level is
still very low when compared with that of other developing countries: 21 kg in Kenya, 31
kg in Argentina, 33 kg in Egypt, 44 kg in Brazil, 45 kg in Mexico. Over the next decade
the per capita consumption is expected to double again to about 25 kg. Failure to rapidly
expand production of cane and sugar could lead to massive imports and a heavy drain on
foreign reserves during the decade. No government can hope to deny the population's demand
for sugar and still remain in power for long.

India has the potential to not only meet its growing
sugar needs but to also become a major sugar exporter. Until recently India sugar has not
been competitive in the international market and limited exports have been subsidized by
the government to earn foreign exchange. But with the devaluation of the rupee in
mid-1991, the cost of production within the country has fallen below the international
market price, opening up an opportunity for India to produce large surpluses for export.

The strategy we propose is to increase the area
under sugarcane about 50% by cultivating 1.6 million hectares in high yield areas such as
Tamil Nadu and Maharashtra. Raising yields on existing cane fields by 15% over the next
ten years--which should be easily possible in view of the present low average yield--will
result in an average yield of 80 tons and generate a total production of 400 million tons
of cane.

Of this, 260 million tons of cane can be used to
produce 26 million tons of sugar for domestic consumption and export. If internal demand
rises as expected by about 50% during the decade, 22 million tons will be needed for
domestic consumption and 4 million tons valued at Rs 22,000 million will be available for
export. The balance 140 million tons of cane will be available for making jaggery.

In order to handle the increase in cane production,
approximately 350 new sugar mills of 2500 tons per day cane crushing capacity will be
needed. Compared to this, less than 100 new mills are currently being planned for
commissioning during the period 1992-97.

The additional fixed and recurring investment over
ten years in cane and sugar production will be Rs 153,000 million. This plan will generate
about 3.4 million new jobs in rural areas and generate an additional Rs 34,000 million in
farm income and wages and contribute Rs 76,500 million to GDP. In addition, sugar
production will generate 17 million tons of molasses, valued at Rs 5,000 million, which
can be utilized for production of industrial alcohol.

Cotton and cotton textiles play a central role in
India's march from poverty to prosperity. Cloth consumption is expected to rise from the
current level of 14 meters per capita to 21 meters by the turn of the century. India is
already one of the leading exporters of long staple cotton in the world. Textile
exports--including yarn, cloth and garments--have increased five-fold over the past five
years and are expected to rise from Rs 60,000 million in 1990 to Rs 250,000 million
in 1995 and reach Rs 500,000 million by 2000. Cotton is the base material for a large
percentage of these exports. Yet in spite of these ambitious plans, no concerted effort
has yet been made to ensure production of sufficient cotton fiber to meet the rapidly
increasing demand.

Increasing cotton production to meet domestic demand
and support the growth of exports is a vital component of the strategy to eliminate
unemployment and eradicate poverty by the year 2000. Cotton is an attractive cash crop
with a relatively high labor input. It is also the basis for the textile industry, the
largest source of employment in the country after agriculture.

India presently has 8 million hectares under cotton
cultivation, but only 2.4 million is irrigated. The program calls for doubling total
cotton production by tripling the area under irrigated cotton with the addition of 4.8
million hectares and raising yields on existing fields. India's average yield is 200 kg
per hectare, 120 kg on dry lands and 400 kg on irrigated lands, as compared to 620 kg in
USA, 520 kg in Pakistan and 970 kg in Egypt. By a concerted effort it should be possible
to raise yields to 200 kg for non-irrigated and 500 kg for irrigated cultivation within a
few years.

Production of an additional 13 million bales (2.2
million tons) of cotton lint will generate 8 million more farm jobs and add Rs 73,000
million to farm GDP. Conversion of this cotton into yarn, cloth and garments can generate
another 11 million direct jobs in the textile industry--of which 10 million are in the
skilled and technical categories--and add another Rs 257,000 million to GDP. The indirect
employment generation from this growth could increase overall employment in the country by
as much as 40 million jobs. Export of 40% of the additional production as a mix of yarn,
cloth and garments can generate Rs 167,00 million in foreign exchange earnings. The
cost per additional job on the farm and in the textile industry is only Rs 17,500.

Doubling cotton production will generate an
additional 3 million tons of edible oil from cotton seed, valued at Rs 3,000 million. It
will also generate a substantial quantity of cotton seed cake for animal feed.

The production of raw silk, which involves
cultivation of mulberry leaves, raising of seed worms, cocoon rearing, reeling and
twisting of yarn, is a labor intensive handicraft with a vast untapped potential for
further development in India. Presently about six million persons are directly involved in
cultivating mulberry on .25 million hectares and producing 9000 tons of silk yarn
annually.

Domestic demand for silk is steadily rising with the
growth of the middle class and overseas demand is growing continuously. Especially with
the decline in production by Japan and South Korea due to rising labor costs, India has an
opportunity to increase exports in competition with China, whose production is four times
India's.

This program aims at doubling of raw silk production
in the country over the next ten years. It involves the establishment of 500 intensive
sericulture projects employing 700,000 persons to produce 11,000 tons of mulberry silk.
Although sericulture is already a well-established industry in the country, the intensive
project represents a new approach with significant advantages. The existing organization
of the industry does not provide sufficient technical support to silk producers and allows
a large percentage of the profit to be taken by middlemen. A perennial shortage of quality
seed material restricts production.

Key components of the strategy are--

1. Establishment of 500 integrated sericulture
village clusters throughout the country. Each project will cover all the activities
related to sericulture from mulberry cultivation to silk twisting.

2. Each village cluster will cultivate 50 hectares
of irrigated mulberry and 125 hectares of rainfed mulberry to produce 3000 tons of leaves
a year. A total of 150,000 hectares of mulberry cultivation will generate Rs 1,200 million
in farm profits and wages annually.

3. Each cluster will have a community rearing
center, training center and grainage. Every group of five clusters will have a centralized
research and development center.

4. Cultivation, cocoon production, chawki rearing,
reeling and twisting will generate employment for 1350 persons in the village cluster and
generate Rs 16.7 million in profits and wages for the cluster (Rs 12,370 per person).

H. Oilseeds Development

Despite the fact that India is the third largest
producer of edible oils in the world, the country imports about 1.5 million tons of
vegetable oils annually in order to partly bridge the gap between domestic production of
3.5 million tons and total demand of 6 million tons. This represents a considerable drain
on the country's foreign exchange reserves of Rs 10,000 million annually. The large scale
import of oilseeds has had a depressing effect on farm prices, acting as a disincentive to
higher domestic production.28

Demand continues to grow with the growth of
population and increasing levels of consumption by an increasingly prosperous society. Per
capita consumption is about 7 kg annually compared to the world average of 14 kg and 24 kg
in USA.

Production of oilseeds rose dramatically from 10
million tons in 1980 to a record 18 million in 1988, but has since leveled off. The
potential exists for significant improvements in the technology employed for production
and processing oilseeds and oils. Groundnut (peanut) is India's most important oilseed.
The average yield of 1.1 tons per hectare is far below China's 1.8, Argentina's 2.3 and
USA's 2.6 tons. Yields vary widely between different regions of the country. Improved
varieties are now available which give 20 to 30 % higher yields than those currently in
use. Pre-harvest and post-harvest technologies developed by the agricultural universities
and research institutes have not been effectively disseminated and adopted on the fields.
For instance, technology has recently been developed for farm production and extraction of
palm oil which can generate Rs 25,000 per hectare to the farmer after three years and Rs
75,000 per hectare to the person who extracts the oil. New technologies for fuller and
better utilization of by-products and waste products in the vegetable oil industry can
have a profound impact on the economics of the industry.

The strategy calls for placing an additional 3
million hectares under irrigated oilseeds by year 2000 and raising the average yield from
830 kg to 1000 kg. This will be sufficient to raise total production by 7.5 million tons,
create 3 million more farm jobs and add Rs 90,000 million to farm GDP.

A program encompassing elements of the Green
Revolution strategy and the program for aquaculture described above should be launched to
generate the political and productive will needed for significant growth in edible oil
production in the country. An examination of production and processing practices for major
oilseed crops will reveal a very significant scope for improving productivity and
efficiency at virtually every step both at the pre- and post-harvest stages.

For groundnut, the utilization of available
technology, financial, organizational and educational resources in the country can be
utilized to raise the average productivity of groundnut cultivation by 50% within three to
five years--even in Tamil nadu which has the highest yield.

India has 67 million hectares of area classified as
forest. But according to remote sensing data, actual forest cover declined from 55 million
hectares to around 45 million between 1972 and 1982, and it is still declining at the rate
of 1.5 million hectares annually. Out of a total land area of 328 million hectares in the
country, more than half is in various stages of degradation and approximately 50 million
hectares are not being put to any productive use. Some 85 million hectares of irrigated
land is in need of upgradation (terracing, bunding, drainage, and desalination).

The rapid destruction of India's forest area has
serious ecological repercussions. At the same time, India's population is fast approaching
the one billion mark, putting increasing pressure on land resources, and the demand for
industrial wood and fuelwood continues to rise. In addition a shortage of green fodder
places severe restrictions on further development of the country's dairy industry, which
must continue to grow to meet the populations demand for milk and dairy products.

The strategy calls for reclaiming a minimum of 8
million hectares of wasteland during the next decade and converting it for dry cultivation
of industrial hardwoods for paper production, fuelwoods and fodder. The programs will
generate 4 million additional jobs for the landless poor and add Rs 26,000 million to
rural incomes.

Forestry: The program involves reclamation and
development of 4 million hectares of forest lands at a cost of Rs 4,200 per hectare. An
additional Rs 1,600 per year for seven years (total Rs 11,000) is the cost of maintaining
the forest until harvest. Dry cultivation of hardwood will produce about 10 tons per
hectare per year after seven years generating an income of Rs 4,000 and profit of Rs 2,600
per hectare per year. Total fixed cost of the program is Rs 16,800 million. Recurring
costs for seven years will be Rs 44,800. The program will generate employment for two
million persons and from the eighth year onwards it will contribute Rs 16,000 million to
GDP. It will produce 40 million tons of wood annually, sufficient to meet the growing need
for pulp woods and fuelwoods in the country.

Because of the high investment and long gestation
period on forestry crops, private sector companies--particularly paper mills--should be
given an opportunity to invest in and manage the afforestation program on long term lease.

Fodder: Reclamation of land and fodder
production require an investment of Rs 6,000 per hectare. The program involves
development of 5 million hectares of fodder lands for a total investment of Rs 30,000
million. With an average yield of 10 tons per hectare, the program will produce 50 million
tons of fodder annually valued at Rs 12,500 million. This will almost be sufficient to
meet the fodder requirements of the projected increase in the number of dairy animals
during the decade.

India already has set an historic precedent for
implementing a complex, fully integrated foodgrain production strategy over a vast area of
the country within record time --Green Revolution. Despite the skepticism of many highly
placed persons in government, science and industry, Indian farmers adopted the hybrid
varieties and new cultivation practices in a far shorter time that it took to disseminate
them among highly educated farmers in the USA. The political will and commitment of the
leadership for expeditious action to avert widespread famine, the dedication of scientists
in the universities and research institutes, the creativity of seasoned administrators in
establishing new institutions overnight to achieve new goals, the insightful pricing
policies and innovative demonstration programs on farmers' fields--all made an essential
contribution to the doubling of foodgrain production within a decade. Certainly no less
determination, enthusiasm, creativity, innovation and perseverance will be required to
implement the strategy and achieve the goals set forth in this paper.

But apart from overriding considerations of
political and social preparedness, the strategy raises many questions of great practical
importance for implementation. All of these issues cannot be fully and satisfactorily
addressed at this stage, but some of the most pressing are raised and examined in this
section.

A. Technology

Proven technologies exist today for achieving all of
the productivity goals forming part of the strategy. The average productivity of
foodgrains on irrigated lands is only 1.7 tons per hectare versus 4 to 5 tons potential.
In fact, all the technologies proposed in this paper are presently being utilized within
the country and are successfully generating results significantly above the targets set in
the programs. This gap between proven potentials and average field results represents an
enormous opportunity. These productive potentials and achievements are examined in further
detail in Volume II.

The real issue is not so much technology, but
dissemination and adoption of technology, which involves education, training, extension,
demonstration, technical support, production and distribution of critical inputs such as
hybrid seeds.

B. Education

Availability of improved technologies is no
assurance that they will be adopted. The intensive aquaculture technology described
earlier--which generates yields 20 to 30 times higher than traditional methods and net
income of Rs 1,000,000 per hectare--has been operative in India for more than five years,
but has spread slowly, in spite of the fact that NABARD is willing to finance its
adoption.

Public education to create awareness about the
existence and potentials of new technologies is the first critical step for the adoption
of new technologies--awareness not only of scientific methods but more importantly of the
commercial consequences (i.e. profit potential) of utilizing them. The media and
institutions such as the newly established Indian National Foundation can play a vital
role in educating the public about the commercial potentials of new technologies.
Universities, colleges and polytechnics can impart a knowledge of practical potentials to
all their students, regardless of their field of interest.

C. Training and Extension

The strategy calls for imparting new information and
new skills to millions of farmers, industrial workers and educated unemployed persons. The
entire educational system of the country--from high schools and polytechnics to
engineering colleges, universities and voluntary service organizations--must be mobilized
for the purpose. It will also be necessary to significantly strengthen the institutions
involved imparting basic agricultural and industrial skills.

Upgrading agriculture means first and foremost
upgrading the knowledge and skills of farmers. Farmer training will play a pivotal role.
Existing methods of education through courses at polytechnics, extension agents,
demonstration plots at research institutes and Training & Visit programs should be
augmented by on-farm training in the local area. The recommendation of the High Powered
Committee on review of Agricultural Policies and Programmes for training of educated small
farmers in every village should be implemented. Establishing 5000 Farm Schools, one in
each development block, to train one educated farmer from each village each year can
impart new technology and skills to over 5 million farmers during the decade and
disseminate them to tens of millions more through successful adoption of new practices by
the trainees on their own fields. Operation of the Farm Schools on 5 hectare plots leased
from small farmers in each block will add a strong element of demonstration to the
training program.

Farmer's Institutes can be established in each
district to train rural youth in improved post-harvest technologies for handling, storage,
processing and marketing of produce. Similar steps are needed to supplement the existing
programs for imparting basic technical and industrial skills to tens of millions of rural
and urban workers. Craftsman Training Institutes should be established in each block to
train mechanics, carpenters, masons, electricians, drivers, machine operators, maintenance
workers, tailors, etc. Vocational Training Institutes should be set up on parallel lines
to impart a wide variety of other productive skills--typing and secretarial, printing,
bookbinding, record and bookkeeping, clerical and legal assistants, computer, etc.

D. Physical Inputs

Supply of appropriate inputs such as fertilizers,
hybrid seeds, fish fingerlings and feed, silk worm seed--will be of critical importance.
Recently the price of tomato shot up 500% in Madras because large quantities of hybrid
tomato seeds were exported, forcing farmers to pay Rs 0.50 per seed or to resort to
traditional, low yielding varieties instead. Policy measures should be adopted to ensure
at least equal access to these inputs for the priority schemes.

E.Infrastructure

Deficiencies in the rural infrastructure--power,
roads, warehouses, markets, schools, hospitals--are a significant barrier to swift
implementation of the programs.

Power: In spite of the country's massive efforts
at rural electrification, only 14% of rural households have power. The demand for power in
the country is projected to increase from 60,000 megawatts installed capacity to 110,000
megawatts by 2000. Meeting this demand will require Rs 700,000 to 1,000,000 million
additional investment in this sector during the decade.

Roads: Studies have shown a strong relationship
between creation of rural roads and development of rural areas. Poor rural roads impede
supply of inputs and delivery of crops to the market. Presently 36% of India's villages
are not connected to the outside world by any type of road and 70% are without all-weather
roads. Road construction is labour intensive and should form a major part of rural
employment programs.

Other types of rural physical infrastructure will be
essential for implementation of the program, such as warehouses, cold storage facilities
for fish and horticulture produce, communication facilities, quality schools and hospitals
to attract technically qualified manpower from urban areas, etc.

The Federation of Indian Chamber of Commerce and
Industry has come forward with a proposal to establish 500 Growth Centers throughout the
country, each equipped with the essential infrastructure and social services needed to
support industrial growth. This concept can be adapted to provide all the central services
required to support development of the programs described in this paper.

F. Financial Resources & Requirements

The financial resources needed to implement the
strategy fall within the likely allocation of funds for development of agriculture in the
Eighth Plan. Investment in irrigation, aquaculture industrial estates, recovery of
wastelands and development of the rural infrastructure will require substantial public
sector investment.

Corporate Investment: This can be partially
mitigated by encouraging the private sector to play a much greater role in agriculture
than in the past--for instance, leasing wastelands to paper mills for reclamation and
plantation forestry. The burden can also be reduced by creating conditions attractive to
foreign companies, particularly those with expertise in food processing industries in
which India is relatively inexperienced. In any case, a large proportion of the investment
will have to come from the private sector in the form of land development and cultivation
expenses for cash crops, investment in new sugar and textile mills, etc.

Tapping Rural Wealth: There has been a tendency
in the past to grossly under-estimate the amount of wealth being created in the rural
areas. The rise in the deposits of the nationalized banks from Rs 60,000 million to nearly
Rs 2,000,000 million over the last twenty years has been made possible by the eight-fold
expansion of the commercial bank branches in the rural areas and the mopping up of over Rs
500,000 million in rural deposits.

Although a variety of banking institutions serve the
needs of the rural population, a strong case can be made for establishment of a new
institution, whose main function and priority is extending credit for intensive
agricultural, agro-industrial and agro-export programs. Dutch farmers established such an
institution sixty years ago to provide financial assistance to farmers at a time when the
country's agriculture was badly hit by the Great Depression. The RaBo Bank was so
successful in increasing farm production that Holland turned its attention to developing
export markets for its surpluses. The bank now has the largest deposits of any bank in the
Netherlands and has played a crucial role in Holland's rise to pre-eminence in
agricultural production and agro-based exports.

G. Public Policy & Institutional Support

We have referred in Part I to the need to generate
the necessary political will and sense of urgency within and through government for the
implementation of the strategy. In the first phase, one district in each state can be
identified for priority implementation of all the programs under a development
administration empowered to act decisively and expeditiously without interference. The
selection of highly qualified and motivated persons to administer the models is essential.

The successful establishment of model development
districts in each state--models not just of programs but of a streamlined and dedicated
form of administration--can serve as an inspiring example to the nation of what can be
accomplished by an unencumbered and efficient administration. Once demonstrated, it may be
possible to extend the model and revamp normal state and district level administration
along these lines. The exact form of the district model to define how it will differ from
existing institutions in terms of structure, policy and functioning can be worked out in
full detail.

The continued exemption of agricultural income from
income tax is a major policy issue. A commitment by all political parties to maintain this
policy throughout the decade will encourage the necessary investment in the programs.
Countless lesser policy issues will arise in the course of implementation, such as
assuring expeditious handling of agricultural exports by customs authorities at ports and
airports to prevent spoilage. Present procedures are slow, cumbersome and severely impede
export of flowers, fish fingerlings and other perishable produce. A full list of such
policy issues needs to be compiled industry by industry and resolved satisfactorily.

H. Marketing

Most of the programs lend themselves to production
on a small scale. But what the small farmer can produce, in many cases he will be unable
to market profitably without the support of a professionally-managed commercial marketing
organization. Therefore, we have proposed the establishment of specialized marketing
agencies for horticulture crops, fish, and silk. These organizations may be primary
producers' cooperatives operating within an umbrella organization of district level and
state cooperatives under a national body as the dairy cooperatives function under the
National Dairy Development Board. But the creation of such a complex structure may be too
slow and unwieldy for handling the problems of rapid expansion. Or they may be in the form
of registered societies, like those constituted by NDDB for marketing of fruits and
vegetables. Or they may be private sector corporations formed as joint ventures with large
Indian companies to avail of their professional management expertise.

I. Farm Management

The most critical input of all will be
management--at all levels from the farm to the factory to the gorvernment. Farm management
is a nascent concept in the country, one with an tremendous potential for improving
productivity, eliminating waste, and increasing national income. India lags behind other
nations economically, not for want of the necessary productive resources, but because it
has not yet learned how to utilize its wealth as productively as other nations. The
country's vast water resources, land resources, and human resources are all underutilized.
It has been estimated that 40% of all irrigation water is wasted. Imagine what Israeli
farmers would accomplish with the water wealth of this country! As noted earlier, a
concerted program to conserve and properly utilize water through improved farm management,
irrigation management and recharging of aquifers can halt and reverse the rapid
deterioration in the rural water table and provide copious water for greater production.
What is true of water is even more true of power, which is wantonly wasted due to
short-sighted policies. It is not growth that is the problem, but waste.

We recommend the establishment of institutions of
Farm Management in every district to train farmers on methods for maximizing the
productivity and profitability of land, topsoil, water, and other resources and minimizing
the wastage through improved technology, planning and management.

J. Environment and Sustainability

In order for the strategy to achieve its goals, it
must be based on sound principles of sustainable agriculture. The most important
environmental issues are conservation of water and topsoil, preservation and forests,
reclamation of wastelands, and chemical pollution.

Water: Apart from the technical and managerial
issues of water conservation discussed earlier, important policy emphasis needs to be
placed on giving water its full value. Efforts have been underway for decades to declare
water as a national resource subject to a common national water policy.

Deforestation: The program calls for the
reforestation of 4 million hectares of national forest lands, but this may not be
sufficient to counter the continued depletion of the nation's forests. New policies and
incentives will be needed for the development of commercial forestry by the private
sector.

Wasteland Development: Apart from the program to
reclaim 4 million hectares of wasteland for fodder production, additional measures are
called for reverse the natural degradation of productive lands and loss of valuable
topsoil.

Chemical Build up in Soil and Food: Recent
studies in the USA have shown that organic methods of cultivation can be both economically
and technically competitive with chemical based farming for many applications. India can
profit from experience in other countries to reduce the excessive dependence on costly and
dangerous chemicals in agriculture. This goal should be emphasized in the formulation of
packages of recommended field practices, establishment of demonstration plots, farmer
training and extension programs.

Biomass Utilization: The country produces 600
million tons of crop residues and other biomass that can be utilized for production of
paper, energy, and other products. 30

In spite of the country's higher rates of
economic growth in the 1980s, the rate of growth of employment in the organized sector has
decelerated sharply during the recent period 1983-87, a period in which industry was
somewhat deregulated and liberalization measures were initiated. Public sector employment
grew strongly over the past 15 years at about 3% per annum, but cannot continue to do so
because of slower growth in public spending due to budgetary constraints and the already
high levels of employment coupled with low productivity of public sector enterprises.
Private sector employment did not grow significantly during this period. In addition,
there has actually been a decline in the labor intensity of output by Indian industry
during the 1970s and early 1980s, indicating a shift from manpower to mechanized
production processes. (See INDIA: Poverty, Employment and Social Services, The World Bank,
1989. p.xxxiii.)

According to the Report of the Expert Committee
on Cropping Pattern of the Government of India Ministry of Agriculture prepared in 1987,
the gross irrigated area will increase by 15 to 18 million hectares to over 70 million by
year 2000 and the gross cropped area will increase by 12 million hectares. (p.46)

The on-farm employment projection for year 2000
includes an estimate of 12 million additional jobs in the dairy industry based on
projections worked out by the National Dairy Development Board.

It is not possible to ascertain how much of the
increase in farm income represents profit to cultivators and how much is wages for labor,
since in all but the largest farms, the farmer utilizes his own and his family's labor as
well as that of other households.

The annual growth rates in foodgrain production
between 1970 and 1985 for the Northwestern region was 5.43 and for the Western region 5.28
compared to .91 for Eastern states, 1.24 for Southern states, and 2.83 for Central region.
See INDIA: Poverty, Employment and Social Services, p. 177.

See INDIA: Poverty, Employment and Social
Services, p. 175 for the proportion of the population below the poverty line by state.

"Employment Situation in India: A Study for
the International Commission On Peace And Food", M. C. Verma, Indian Council for
Research on International Economic relations, 1991, 10.

The percentage of people below the poverty line
varies significantly by source. The figures in Table 1 are based on Planning Commission
estimates cited in Economic Survey, 1990-91, p.10, and in INDIA: Economic Information
Yearbook, 1989-90, p.54. The World Bank makes international comparisons based on two
categories of poverty, a high and low range. The Bank categorizes 55% of India's
population--252 million--as poor and 33%--157 million--as extremely poor. The World
Development Report 1990, p.29.

GDP estimates for each crop are assumed equal to
80% of the farm price for produce--the average rate for all sectors of agriculture in
1970-79.

Additional GDP from oilseeds calculated based on
price of Rs 15,000 per ton with 80% value added.

Employment generation is based on the assumption
that each pond of .04 hectares is separately owned and operated by the owner and three
additional laborers.

Based on earlier years, the selected items in
our list represent approximately 50% (Rs 775,000 million) of the total category
agriculture, livestock, fisheries, forestry and mining, which are grouped together by the
government in measures of GDP. Important items not included in the list are livestock,
pulses, plantation crops, spices and condiments, marine fisheries and agricultural
by-products.

Assuming dairy output represents roughly 27% of this other group (Rs
257,000 million is the actual output of the industry in 1989-1990). According to
projections by the National Dairy Development Board, milk production is expected to
increase by 36% during the decade (Rs 70,700 million of milk at 1990 prices assuming milk
represents 76% of total dairy income and Rs 56,500 value added based on 80% of revenues).
Assuming that all other sectors of this group grow at 2.4% annually (the trend rate for
agriculture for the past 25 years), they would contribute an additional Rs 153,000
million. Together "Dairy and other coprs" would generate Rs 209,500 million
additional GDP by the year 2000.

The projection of 13.5 million additional jobs in other fields
includes 5.8 million for milk production (see footnote 43) and 7.66 million for other
sectors (based on the average additional GDP for each new job in agricultural of Rs 18,000
(see table 9). Projections by NDDB based on field studies of man-hours per animal per day
suggest that the job estimates for dairy may be too low, since additional employment in
dairy alone is projected at 26,000 million man-hours (i.e 11.6 million SPYs).

38. Processing,
transport and marketing value added for cereals and oilseeds taken as 20% of farm
price. Labour cost and profit each calculated as 10% of value added. Capital cost is a
rough estimate, not a calculated amount.

39. No attempt has
been made to calculate the industrial output related to other crops.

40.Based on
multipliers developed by Peter Hazell and Steven Haggblade in
Rural-Urban Growth Linkages in India, World Bank, 1990. (Hazell p38) According to Hazell's
econometric model, if non-farm income is46% of agricultural income in
1991, (i.e. 713,000 million), and if agriculture income grows by 4% per year, then
non-farm income will grow by 5.84% annually or by 74%, Rs 527,000 million (low scenario),
in 10 years. Total non-farm income in year 2000 would then equal Rs 1,297,000 million.
According to the semi input output model, a one rupee increase in farm income generates an
average of Rs 1.83 increase in non-farm income. (Rs 2.07 for irrigated lands, Rs 1.70 for
drylands). Growth of farm GDP by Rs 770,000 million would generate Rs 1,327,000 of
additional non-farm income and Rs 2,000,000 million for the economy as a whole. Using the
higher ratio for our income from irrigated lands, which applies to at least 66% of the
projected increase in income from the strategy, indicates additional non-farm income of Rs
1,500,000 million (high scenario) and of total income in the economy by Rs 2,270,000
million (high scenario).

41. Exports of cotton textiles
were Rs 40,000 million in 1990-91 or 66% of total textile exports. According to
projections by the industry, total textile exports are projected to rise from
Rs 60,000 million to Rs 250,000 million by 1995 and Rs 500,000 million in year
2000. If cotton textiles maintains its current 66% share, the figure for cotton will rise
to Rs 330,000 million by 2000. For calculating export earnings, we have assumed actual
achievement of only 75% of this level, Rs 250,000. Assuming 10% value added of exports on
cotton (10% of exports), 80% on yarn (10% of exports), 240% on cloth (50% of exports) and
400% on garments (30% of exports) with an average cloth value of Rs 20 per meter for cloth
and Rs 50 per meter for garment material, exports would absorb the equivalent of 66% of
the increase in cloth production, i.e 6600 million meters (or 5000 meters for the export
level assumed in our projections).

42. Data in
Table 11 are based on multipliers developed by Peter Hazell and Steven Haggblade in
Rural-Urban Growth Linkages in India, World Bank, 1990. The total number of jobs generated
by a 3% growth rate depends on which estimate of current employment in the country is used
as the base figure. Estimates range from 227 million (26% of population according to
Seventh Plan projection of standard work years for 1990-91) to 300 million (34% of
population according to the National Survey Service). Overall growth from 1985 to 1990 was
above projections, so the Planning Commission number may be low by several million. The
NSS figure reflects the number of people having some jobs, but not necessarily fully
employed.

43. The
category of "Dairy & other" includes an estimate of 5.8 million
additional jobs in the dairy industry by 2000 AD. This figure is based on the continued
growth of the milch animal population at current rates (i.e. average 18% over 10 years).
NDDB projects that the industry will generate 170,000 million hours of employment in 2000
AD or roughly 11.6 million additional jobs. We have assumed that additional standard
person years is only 50% of this level.

The category of semi-skilled
workers includes farm supervisors and cultivators. For statistical purposes it is
difficult to distinguish this group from unskilled farm labour. For aquaculture, it is
proposed that since the technology is sophisticated and there is a critical need for
creating jobs for the skyrocketing number of educated unemployed, each half acre pond be
leased or owned by an educated unemployed person. This accounts for 250,000 jobs in the
technical category.

The data for annual outlays for the
Eighth Plan, which is yet to be finalized, are based on the recently announced total size
of public and private sector investment averaged over five years. The percentage allocated
for public sector investment in agriculture and industry is based on the Sixth Plan, which
may not represent the final proportions adopted for the new plan. The public sector
investment in the 8th Plan will be 43%.