Mitt Romney would be elected president if the election were held today, the Republican National Committee's chairman boldly predicted Monday.

RNC Chairman Reince Priebus predicted a Romney victory based on projected wins in several swing states (polls of which are less definitively optimistic for Romney).

"I feel real good that if the election was held today, we’d be winning today. If the election is tied, we’re going to win the election," Priebus said during a press conference today kicking off the GOP’s "rapid response" effort during the Democratic National Convention.

"Independents are not going to suddenly have an epiphany," Priebus continued, "and decide that everything is great."

Pressed by a reporter on which states Romney would win if the election were held today, Priebus doubled down.

"For one, I think we win Wisconsin today," Priebus said of his home state, adding: "I think we win Florida today. I think we win Virginia. I think that we win Iowa."

Priebus said Romney would be close in Ohio, a state he called a "toss-up."

Yet demonstrating the GOP’s not-so easy electoral map in November, Romney winning Wisconsin, Florida, Virginia, and Iowa would still leave him short of the 270 electoral votes needed to win the presidency, especially if Romney doesn’t carry Ohio.

They are in a statistical dead heat at the moment for the national popular vote, but (a) that's not how elections are decided, and (b) Romney is still enjoying a small boost from the RNC, while Obama has not yet gotten his bump from the DNC. Anyway, the election was not today. By the end of this week we should see Obama back in the lead by very thin margins (unless the Dems unexpectedly flub their convention in some major way).

That status quo will persist right up until election day unless some random event (such as an Israeli attack on Iran, or even a major gaffe in one of the debates) changes the game in the next two months. It's going to be a nail-biter, and it's going to come down to FL and OH. If I were a betting man I'd put money on FL going Dem, based on the Paul Ryan/Medicare card.

Not according to Five Thirty Eight. Obama would end up with 51.8% of the popular vote, and there has never been a point on any of his graphs where the two lines have crossed, let alone touched. Nice try, though, Reince.