While the USA's news is focusing on Hurricane Florence, unfortunately that is not the only major storm currently happening. Typhoon Manghut is about to hit the Philippines and is projected to then move on to southeastern China, Hong Kong, Vietnam, and into Laos.

Even as far away as here in Pattaya there has been quite a bit of rain over the past few days and the predictions expect plenty more rain over at least the next 10 days.________________________________________

Super-typhoon Mangkhut aims at Philippines

September 14, 2018

HONG KONG: The Philippines braced early Friday for the onslaught of Super-Typhoon Mangkhut, whose 240kph (150 mph) winds were on a path for a direct hit at the country's largest and most populous island.

The military and police in northern Luzon were placed on red alert - barring all troops from going on leave - so they could respond to emergencies in communities expected to bear the brunt of the typhoon, which packed the wind power of a Category 5 hurricane.

Livestream update of the progress of Super Typhoon Mangkhut:

The typhoon appeared likely to strike an area considered the breadbasket of the Philippines, raising fears of significant damage to the agricultural sector, which has already been reeling from a series of typhoons that destroyed crops, livestock and fisheries.

The storm could bring "ruinous rain to central Luzon, home to the country's agricultural land," warned Richard Gordon, a senator and the chairman of the Philippine Red Cross. The typhoon is coming at the start of the corn and rice harvest, and farmers were urged to bring in as much of their crops as they could to minimize the damage.

Officials warned that Super Typhoon Mangkhut carried the intensity of Super Typhoon Haiyan in 2013, which killed more than 6,000 people, most of them in a storm surge. But as of Thursday, Mangkhut was on track to hit less densely populated areas.

President Rodrigo "The Punisher" Duterte summoned his cabinet to an emergency session Thursday afternoon to plot strategy for dealing with the incoming storm, which is called Ompong in the Philippines. Officials said 4 million people will likely be exposed to the storm's most damaging effects.

Current forecasts show the typhoon on a track to start lashing the Philippines with strong winds and heavy rains Friday, with the eye passing over northern Luzon Saturday, drenching areas as far south on the island as Manila, the capital.

It was then on track to hit northern Vietnam, densely populated Guangdong province in China and possibly Hong Kong. That teeming area of megacities is home to more than 100 million people and is seen as particularly vulnerable to the effects of climate change, though cities like Hong Kong are well prepared for even powerful typhoons.

That is when the typhoon's wide area will begin lashing Thailand with high winds and heavy rain, starting in the Northeast.

In Taiwan, officials were relieved by the typhoon's slight turn southward. That seemed likely to spare the island, which previous projections had put in the path of the storm.

In the Philippine province of Cagayan in northern Luzon, the governor, Manuel Mamba, ordered evacuations and closed schools and offices as precautionary measures. He told The Associated Press that this typhoon "is very different, this is more complicated because of possible storm surges."

The danger underlined how vulnerable the Philippines has become to climate disruptions because of its location at the crossroads of the Pacific, making it subject to increasingly frequent and powerful typhoons.

Edgar Posadas, a spokesman of the Office of Civil Defence, urged Filipinos to prepare for the worst.

"We have people in those areas who say that as of now it remains sunny - but let us not be complacent," he said, recalling how before Haiyan "it was sunny, but the following day it was a deluge."

He said Mangkhut (a name derived from the Thai fruit), was "bigger in terms of coverage" geographically than Haiyan, threatening some 29 provinces and 30 cities in its path. Its rain band was 900 kilometres wide, 50% bigger than Haiyan's.

Gordon, the head of the Philippine Red Cross, said emergency response teams; search and rescue teams; water, sanitation and health units; and volunteers were on standby in northern and central Luzon, as well as in Manila, awaiting the storm.

"We're worried for the 10 million people in the Philippines living in the path of this destructive storm, including those who have been displaced several times due to monsoon rains last July and August," he said.

I feel really sorry for those in The Philippines. Most people probably do not realise that typhoon season lasts from late May until early November. Cities and countries like Hong Kong, Taiwan and Japan are much better prepared to see through typhoons with relatively little damage compared to The Philippines, although this year Japan has been really pummelled with more casualties and damage than usual. The poverty of The Philippines results in most of those in flimsy housing and poorly constructed townships suffering in every typhoon. In the super-category ones like Mangkhut the loss of life and damage to infrastructure is desperately high.

We do not hear about most of the typhoons that zip through. In Hong Kong I lived through around 100 over a 20 year period. Three of these were super typhoon category 10s, the equivalent to category 5 hurricanes in North America and the Caribbean - Hope in 1979, Ellen in 1983 and York in 1999. Living on the 25th floor of an apartment block for the first two and on the 35th floor in 1999, it's hard to describe how scary these were. The buildings swayed constantly, sometimes being jolted as the wind suddenly changed direction.

In my first apartment, there was an enclosed balcony open only on one side. One moment the full force of the wind and rain would lash at and bend inwards the full-length windows that opened out to the balcony. A second later the direction would change and blow across the space instantly creating a vacuum within the balcony space. Then the windows would suddenly bend outwards. I never knew if they would finally snap. I remember listening to the radio during the 1983 super-typhoon and hearing that many windows in a relatively new skyscraper apartment block on the south side had blown out. Furniture and belongings were all sucked out.

Yet Hong Kong's defences and typhoon preparations are well refined so that the number of casualties has traditionally been minimal - 12, 10 and 2 deaths in the 3 super-typhoons mentioned above. What makes that remarkable to me is that for the first two, Hong Kong still had flimsy squatter villages near the top of many hills. But the Hong Kong Observatory has warned that if there is a direct hit Mangkhut is likely to be the worst storm ever to hit the city. Wherever it hits, flights will certainly be cancelled. Cathay Pacific and other local carriers have announced that for all cancellations all tickets issued prior to Tuesday this week will be reissued for future flights without penalty, irrespective of booking conditions.

fountainhall wrote:Mangkhut is likely to be the worst storm ever to hit the city.

As a result of global warming and climate change - you know, the warming and changes Trump and many science-denying Republicans insist is merely a myth (tell that to the polar bears) - these major hurricanes and typhoons are likely to only get stronger and become more frequent. I just hope it at least won't become necessary to add a Category 6 to the hurricane strength levels. I guess they won't be happy until the storms we get on Earth are comparable to the storms that occur on Jupiter.

And on top of that, with the sea levels rising as a result of this myth - I won't be surprised if the day comes when in the USA you want to buy beachfront property, you'll be buying it in Kentucky.

I wonder which politicians will be the first to tell us all about how their "thoughts and prayers" are with the victims . . .

FountainhallI too lived in Hong Kong Kong and was there in 1962 when Typhoon Wanda hit. It was the second worst ever in terms of wind but not deaths. It has not been equalled since.

The 1937 typhoon killed 11,000 people but Wanda,s death toll was only several hundred. That was because they were already making improvements.

Our flat was on the first floor of a 3 floor building and all the windows were sucked out at the height of the storm. When the eye passed directly overhead our building the difference was awesome. Winds dropped from 150 mph to nothing and we walked around in beautiful weather inspecting the damage.

Thirty minutes later we were inside again for another pummeling.An experience for a 14 year old, but something I would not wish to repeat!

The Hong Kong and mainland Chinese governments warned officials to “prepare for the worst” on Friday as thousands of people were evacuated from their homes in the Philippines during a direct hit by Super Typhoon Mangkhut.

The Hong Kong Observatory warned of hurricane-level winds in excess of 118km/h as atmospheric experts expected Mangkhut would regain strength over the South China Sea. At 10.20pm it issued the typhoon signal No 1, while the storm was more than 1,000km from the city – the furthest out a storm has ever been when the signal went up.

The Observatory predicted the storm would move northwest at about 28km/h towards the northern part of Luzon, the Philippines’ most populous island, and enter the South China Sea at about 2pm on Saturday, getting closest to Hong Kong on Sunday afternoon.

“As the wind and rain brought by Mangkhut are expected to come in extraordinary speed, scope and severity, I have ordered all parties to prepare for the worst,” Hong Kong’s security minister John Lee Ka-chiu said, after a second meeting with more than 30 bureaus, official departments and public organisations in three days.

Lee said each department would be better prepared than it was for Super Typhoon Hato last August. Hato, which killed 10 people in Macau, caused businesses and schools in Hong Kong to close for several days.

The Home Affairs Department said it would send two coaches on Saturday to Tai O, Lantau Island, one of six low-lying or coastal areas at risk of serious floods, to take residents to official shelters.

Vega Wong Sau-wai, assistant director of the department, said: “About 2,000 residents in Tai O are advised to leave. Among them, our major targets are the 300 to 400 individuals living in squatter housing.”

As of 8pm on Friday, Mangkhut was about 450km northeast of Manila, with maximum sustained winds of about 240km/h near its centre.

Provinces along and near China’s southern border, including Hainan, Guangdong, Guangxi and Yunnan, also issued warning signals, reminding the public to brace for extraordinarily torrential rains, floods and landslides.

In Hainan, an island about 500km southwest of Hong Kong, provincial governor Shen Xiaoming also told officials to “prepare for the worst”, as the threat from Mangkhut would be “grave”.

In Guangdong, 3,777 shelters had been set up while more than 100,000 residents and tourists were moved to safety or sent home. More than 36,000 fishing boats were recalled to port, according to Associated Press.

In the Philippines, the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council previously predicted about 5.2 million people, among whom 824,100 were from low-income families, would be within the typhoon’s 125km radius.

In northern Luzon, an agricultural area known as the Philippines’ breadbasket, with a population of about 4 million, the head-on impact of Mangkhut had sparked the evacuation of thousands by Friday evening as officials warned of severe flooding and extremely high winds.

More than 15,300 people had been evacuated from the northern provinces by Friday afternoon, the country’s Office of Civil Defence said.

The Philippines’ Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration forecast that the Cagayan-Isabela area in eastern Luzon would see storm surges caused by Mangkhut on Saturday morning.

Residents in unstable structures, low-lying areas and near riverbanks were advised to evacuate. Fishermen were told to stay in designated seaboards.

Whether Hong Kong authorities would issue warning signals higher than No 8 would depend on the effect its sweep over the Philippines had on its strength.

All emergency measures would be activated earlier than usual, the government said. It said an emergency hotline – on 2835 1473 – would be open as long as typhoon signal No 1 was in effect, and the Emergency Monitoring and Support Centre spearheaded by the Security Bureau would start running when Signal No 3 is in force.

The Observatory said it would consider issuing the No 3 signal later on Saturday.

Operations at Hong Kong International Airport would be seriously affected over the coming days, according to the Airport Authority.

Cathay Pacific Airways warned that flights departing from Hong Kong between noon and 7pm on Sunday would be subject to “severe disruption”. The airline said it would contact affected passengers once alternative flights were ready.

﻿Hong Kong Airlines cancelled 24 flights for Sunday and one for Monday. It delayed 20 others departing on Saturday and Sunday for one day.

Mangkhut would be weakened from a super typhoon to a strong one as it left Luzon, according to the National Meteorological Centre. But evaporation from the South China Sea would bolster its strength before it hits land again, between the southwest coast of Guangdong and the northeast tip of Hainan, on Sunday night.

gerefan wrote:The 1937 typhoon killed 11,000 people but Wanda,s death toll was only several hundred. That was because they were already making improvements.

Our flat was on the first floor of a 3 floor building and all the windows were sucked out at the height of the storm.

My first typhoon was the most scary. I was very afraid of windows being sucked out. I remember the advice given to all residents in high rise buildings - to lock themselves in an interior room like a bathroom to ensure they would not also be sucked out!

My first apartment was in Baguio Villa in Pokfulam on the west of the Island. But this was no "villa". At that time around 26 skyscraper blocks set right on the coast. But the land rose quickly and I was in an Upper Block giving a fabulous view over to the islands of Lamma and Cheung Chau but totally exposed to winds and lashing rain from three sides.

The improvements over the years have rendered Hong Kong relatively safe. There was one bad typhoon (I think in the late 60s/early 70s) which dumped so much water on the Island that an inverted V-shaped section above Mid-Levels gave way. This crashed into the built-up area and caused huge damage with one skyscraper collapsing into others. That 'V' can still be seen from the harbour. Strengthening of sub-structures on Victoria Peak and building codes has meant that has not happened again.

I am always impressed by the Hong Kong public's absolute adherence to the Observatory's Warning signals. As soon as the No. 8 signal is issued, the city is on a timetable to completely shut down. All commercial and office buildings are evacuated, balconies stripped of furniture and plants, and everyone gets home as quickly as possible. I don't recall power going out even in the strongest typhoons.

Perhaps because Hong Kong is basically pretty safe during its regular typhoons, I am always amazed that hurricanes hitting the USA cause such massive damage. Back in the summer of 1992 I was in Fort Lauderdale spending a few days with friends. I then flew to Kauai for 10 days at the Hyatt Resort en route home. Just weeks later, south Florida and Kauai were slammed by Category 5 Andrew and Category 4 Iniki. The damage was $25 billion and $3.1 billion respectively. There is surely something wrong with building codes and things like distribution methods for utilities when large areas and buildings not unused to regular hurricanes can be flattened or built right by a flat beach. It's like the authorities are just asking for trouble.

fountainhall wrote:There is surely something wrong with building codes

With Hurricane Andrew that was a 'yes and no.' I was there during Hurricane Andrew, something I don't ever want to live through again. Living in Florida I had been through several hurricanes, but nothing like Hurricane Andrew.

Hurricane Andrew was an anomaly. Beachfront property is well constructed and didn't suffer much damage, but that was the area expected to take the strongest hit. With hurricanes, once they make landfall the coastal areas usually suffer severe damage, but the hurricane weakens by the time it reaches inland areas.

With Hurricane Andrew that didn't happen. It remained just as strong even when it started going inland and that's what caused all the devastation in Miami. Most of the damage was in areas that weren't even considered flood zones. In many of the most severely hit areas, evacuations were not even called.

When the rebuilding began, new standards were put in place for building codes, in hopes of preventing a disaster like that from happening again. A lot of lessons were learned - unfortunately the hard way. Since then, so far, so good.

I was very lucky. The eye was heading directly for where I was. Then, only about an hour before landfall, the hurricane took an unexpected turn and made landfall about 15 miles south of where I was. Even so, it was one hell of a scary night. The weather reporters were telling everyone to open their windows just a crack to prevent the windows from being shattered. Of course I lost my electricity, but I had a small battery operated TV, about the size of a mobile phone, and plenty of spare batteries, so I was able to keep the news on all night, although it was difficult to hear it even at full volume due to the wind noise.

By morning, the only major damage where I was were loads of uprooted trees. Even today you can still see several of the trees that survived growing at odd angles from having been bent over by the storm. A lot of cars were damaged, but again I was lucky. My car was not damaged, but it was a few days before it was possible to drive anywhere because of all the debris. I was lucky a third time too. I was in one of the first areas where electricity was restored. I had my electricity back within three days, as I recall. In Miami tens of thousands were without electricity for weeks.

I'm glad Hong Kong does its best to protect people and help them once the storm is over. What I will never understand is the USA government's apparent indifference to Puerto Rico, and still indifferent today. While Puerto Rico is not a state, it is still part of the USA. Trump's idea of helping those people was tossing some rolls of paper towels into the crowd - and there he is bragging about the 'fabulous' job he did and denying the number of people who lost their lives. This is the President of the United States - and who is he thinking of? Only himself.

In my opinion, Trump was as much of a disaster to the people living in Puerto Rico as the hurricane was. Only a few days ago the news came out about millions of containers of bottled water still sitting there where they were delivered. Meanwhile, many Puerto Rican communities are still without drinking water and are trying to make do with what natural water they can find.

I'm sure, however, Trump will see to it that enormous amounts of help will be sent to the Carolinas once Hurricane Florence is gone. Loads of Trump supporters there . . .

Gaybutton wrote:What I will never understand is the USA government's apparent indifference to Puerto Rico, and still indifferent today.

I have never been to Puerto Rico. From what I see on tv, it seems more akin to The Philippines than mainland USA - meaning the infrastructure is so fragile it is going to suffer considerable damage even with minor hurricanes. Afterwards there are just patchwork remedies to already patchwork facilities. Whilst Trump deserves all the brickbats for his administration's tortoise-like reaction to the last year's typhoons, surely nothing will change in future years unless and until the government finds a way of strengthening the situation re housing and infrastructure. In The Philippines, that is almost impossible because of the dire poverty in much of the country. I assume the same is true in Puerto Rico. And I further assume that part of the reason for the fragility and poverty is massive corruption. How you get rid of that in either territory I have no idea.

As for the present Hurricane battering the Carolinas, I was very surprised this morning to see on CNN that in one town there were hosts of townspeople desperately filling sandbags to protect either a levy or a river that was in danger of overflowing. Yet this same levy/river had overflowed just a year or two ago. So why were these people only filling sandbags now? The vast volume of rainfall this hurricane would unleash has been known for many days. Why did they not have vast numbers of sandbags prepared long before today? I don't get it!

Gaybutton wrote:As a result of global warming and climate change - you know, the warming and changes Trump and many science-denying Republicans insist is merely a myth

Does it really matter if trump and his people deny global warming or not? Nobody would be willing to make the changes required to stop it from happening either way. Best wishes to the folks in the Philippines, looks like they're getting the worst of it.

Captain Kirk wrote:Does it really matter if trump and his people deny global warming or not? Nobody would be willing to make the changes required to stop it from happening either way.

The Paris Accords signed by 180 countries until Trump made it 179 are supposed to reduce the rate of global warming by limiting the increase in emissions. As a result, Norway has agreed to ban the sale of petrol- and diesel-powered cars by 2025, the Netherlands by 2025 and France by 2040.

But is it all too late? The Paris Accords took into account data on methane emissions from animal farting and poop, but it has now been found to be well out of date. From a study a year ago -

Farts are funny. Global warming is not. Unfortunately, methane is a big contributor to the greenhouse effect, helping to trap heat within Earth’s atmosphere and contributing to climate change. Carbon dioxide usually gets the blame for global warming, but methane is about 85 times more powerful when it comes to trapping heat, although it breaks down faster than carbon dioxide.

Now, a new calculation of methane produced by cows, swine and other livestock shows we may have underestimated their inputs. Researchers from the U.S. Department of Agriculture, the Joint Global Change Research Institute and the U.S. Department of Energy say the previous figures, which served as a basis for the 2006 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, were off by 11%.

Led by USDA plant physiologist Julie Wolf, the group looked at the data underpinning the IPCC’s estimate . . . Wolf and her colleagues estimated that livestock originated about one-fifth of methane emissions from 2003 to 2011. But they were responsible for between half and three-quarters of the increase in methane emissions seen over that time period.

I'm glad I will not be here when the earth has heated up by another couple of degrees.