Gulf system messy, but could still develop

The system tagged 91L by the National Hurricane Center is battling several atmospheric elements, including dry air to its west. It may have a small window of opportunity to develop on Wednesday or Thursday. (Credit: NOAA)

The blob of clouds and showers in the Caribbean off the coast of the Yucatan peninsula was trying to fight off dry air to its west Monday and today, while pushing deep tropical moisture into the Florida Keys and South Florida.

Palm Beach International Airport picked up 1.21 inches of rain on Monday, plus there were showers in the area on Tuesday morning which will add to the total. A station on Palm Beach recorded 0.39 of an inch through early Tuesday morning.

A weather station in Boca Raton east of Military Trail and north of Clint Moore Road reported 7.20 inches of rain Monday afternoon to the National Weather Service in Miami.

More heavy rain, with possible flooding, was in the forecast for Palm Beach and the rest of South Florida through at least Thursday, when the low pressure off the Yucatan has the best shot at spinning up into something tropical, or subtropical, in the South-Central Gulf of Mexico.

In addition to the dry air shown on satellite images, wind shear maps show unfavorable upper-level conditions in its current location, but these would ease up a bit if the system, which was barely drifting north, could make it into the Central Gulf of Mexico.

That’s where it would have its best chance of becoming Tropical/ Subtropical Depression One, or Tropical Storm Andrea, before heading for Florida’s West Coast on Friday.

And despite its very messy presentation on satellite, some of the computer intensification models have done an about-face on 91L and predict that it will reach minimal tropical storm status by Thursday.

The National Hurricane Center in Miami was giving the area a medium chance of becoming a tropical — or perhaps a subtropical — system by Thursday.

In some ways, 91L recalls last June’s Tropical Storm Debby, which formed in the same vicinity and tracked slowly toward the North Florida coast, making landfall on June 26 a 40 mph system. Debby’s primary calling card was heavy rainfall. It dropped more than 20 inches in parts of North Florida. It also brought flooding rains to South Florida, including a 5.33-inch-deluge at PBIA on June 24.

In the case of 91L, NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center is estimating that almost 6 inches of rain will fall through Friday around Fort Myers, with much lighter amounts in Palm Beach County.

Here are today’s forecast tracks for the system:

(Credit: SFWMD)

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Not that this is beach weather, but rip currents are a major problem for Palm Beach County. NOAA calls them the top safety threat at the nation’s beaches. Rip currents are strong channels of water that pull away from the shore and sweep whatever is in the way far away from land.

If you’re caught in one, the trick is to stay calm and swim parallel to the shore until the current breaks its grip. Then, you can angle back to the shore.

Here’s a video that was posted by NOAA’s Ocean Today, which began in 2008 as an exhibit at the Smithsonian Institution’s National Museum of Natural History in Washington, D.C.

About the Author

John Nelander is a freelance writer, book editor and publisher in West Palm Beach. Weather Matters features news and observations about the weather with a focus on what's happening in South Florida. The blog also looks at the latest studies on climate change as well as what's happening in the weather forecasting biz. His website is www.pbeditorialservices.com.