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​Over the past 100 years societies, particularly in the West, have become used to abundance with many coming to believe that increasing economic growth was natural and inevitable. While growth has occurred over the past century many of the most vital resources upon which the modern world relies may be on the verge of running out. Here we demonstrate four vital resources that are being depleted and explain what this could mean for the modern world.

Oil

The lifeblood of the modern world oil is used for transport, to make goods such as plastics, heat our homes and to fuel much of industrial and agricultural production. If oil was to disappear in a short time frame or without a viable replacement the impact would be huge.

When talking about oil (or any resource for that matter) it is firstly important to understand the difference between depletion and the productive ‘peak’. Due to oil taking many millions of years to form any extraction invariably means that it is technically ‘depleting’. ‘Peak-oil’ on the other hand means that the maximum rate of extraction has been reached and thereafter the world must face lower quantities of oil being produced.

So how close is ‘peak-oil’? Well for many nations this has already occurred, according to Penn State University the production of oil in the United States peaked in 1971 and despite a recent surge in production due to the use of fracking US production has never again reached its 1971 peak. The United Kingdom reached its peak in 1999. But at what point will this phenomena occur for the world as a whole?

The United States Energy Information Administration compiled a series of estimates from industry sources and academics regarding when they believed global ‘peak-oil’ would occur. Of the 25 predictions made from 1995 to 2004 which the EIA published 16 believed peak oil would occur before 2020, 2 reports believed before 2028 and 6 believed peak oil would not occur until for at least another 40 years.

Even more dramatic calculations are made by Gilbert Masters the Professor of Civil and Environmental Engineering at Stanford University who suggests that the current global oil reserves used at their current projected rate will last the world for only about another 41 years. What Masters is saying is not that ‘peak-oil’ will occur in 41 years but that there will be the significant possibility of massive oil shortages occurring by this time.

Water

While the surface of the earth may be 71% covered in water the fresh water that is required for human consumption and use in agriculture is far less abundant. According to the Arlington Institute humanity has approximately 11 trillion cubic meters of freshwater at its disposal. Groundwater aquifers contain over 95% of this water, while rain, rivers, and lakes make up the remaining 5%.

The biggest of these aquifers are according to a recent report by NASA being drained at an alarming rate. The NASA report stated that in 21 of the world’s 37 largest aquifers more water is being removed than replaced and 13 are in a serious situation. The situation as a whole was described by NASA’s senior water scientist as ‘quite critical’.

Similar reports and studies illustrate a similar picture of the global water situation. A report in the Agricultural Water Management journal says that currently 40% of the world faces a situation where demand for water outstrips supply. According to their calculations this could rise to 60% in the coming decade. Similarly a Duke University study regarding water security proposes that the whole world will be on current trends at a situation of demand outstripping supply by 2050. It must of course be remembered that even at the present time almost 1 billion people already lack clean safe drinking water.

Phosphorus

Phosphorus may not immediately strike you as a requirement for our day to day lives but it is absolutely crucial. Phosphorus forms the base of Nitrogen-Phosphorus-Potassium fertilisers which underpin modern high intensity farming and is required to keep the world supplied with food. MIT University states that Phosphorus at current levels of consumption will completely run out in 80 years. When ‘peak-Phosphorus’ will occur is open to debate in much the same way as peak-oil but Dana Cordell of the University of Technology Sydney who puts a ’conservative’ estimate on total Phosphorus reserves lasting for 50-100 years believes that peak-Phosphorus will be reached around 2030.

Both the depletion of Phosphorus and reaching peak-Phosphorus could have huge effects on the global food supply. A price rise in phosphorus, as a result of a peak being reached, will for instance most likely result in food prices also increasing for consumers. When so much of the world lives in a situation of food-insecurity such a price rise could lead to widespread malnutrition as the poorest are priced out of the food market.

This would not be the first time human beings have eliminated their finest source of fertiliser. Guano (bat droppings) was used by indigenous people in Peru as a highly potent fertiliser for centuries. However after importation to Europe began in the 1840s reserves of guano began to be depleted and by the start of the 20th century the huge reserves of guano had been all but eliminated.

Top-soil

A report by the World Resource Institute sated in 2013 that food production will need to increase by 60% between 2006 and 2050 in order for all individuals to be fed properly. Like water and phosphorus, top-soil, the first few inches of soil that contain the nutrients required for plant life to grow, plays a very important role in food production.

It is estimated in the same report by the World Resource Institute that over the past 40 years 30% of global cropland has become unusable as the top-soil has become degraded, primarily due to nutrients draining off the land as a result of agricultural irrigation. Unfortunately top-soil can only naturally regenerate over many centuries and therefore it must be classed as a non-renewable resource.

The World Economic Forum’s Risk Response Network said to Time magazine in 2012 that under a ‘business as usual scenario’ the world will produce 30% less food over the next 20-50 years precisely at a time when demand for food is increasing and where currently in 2015 almost 1 billion people already lack adequate nutrition.

The potential results of resource depletion

As can be seen the world could be on the verge of running out of several of our most important resources. On a humanitarian note it is easy to see how each individual resource depleting could affect many millions of lives but while depletion of one may be seriously concerning depletion of more or even all of these resources at the same time can only make the situation exponentially worse. Likewise, attempts to overcome shortages of one resource can often have a knock on effect on others. For instance it has been suggested that oil may be somewhat replaced by bio-fuel, fuel made from agricultural products, however this has the obvious impact of increasing food prices and further eroding top-soil. Similarly the continued or overuse of some of these resources have a damaging effect on others such as the overuse of phosphorus leading to the pollution and destruction of fresh water reserves.

Not only will resource depletion have a direct humanitarian impact but depletion will also likely have a huge economic and geopolitical impact. Economically the ability for an economy to operate successfully may be seriously undermined as more of the wealth of societies is focused towards competing over fewer available resources. In terms of geopolitics the impact of depleting resources may lead to greater rivalry and competition over resources particularly as these depleting resources are not spread evenly across nations. Reserves of phosphorus are only found in 5 nations, the US, China, Morocco, Jordan and Western Sahara and the world’s largest aquafers are concentrated in particular geographic locations. With some nations having a larger abundance of resources than others this may very well lead to attempts by more powerful states to dominate, via military power or economic control, weaker nations with large natural resources. We have after all already seen in our lifetimes the conflicts that have occurred as a result of states attempting to control the global supply of oil. ​Free markets have clearly not preserved our most vital resources and unless the world acts soon to manage and preserve resources a paradigm shift in terms of global economics may be about to occur whereby the preconception of a better future world no longer exists.