Disclaimer

Much of the information presented is based on PB work for NCHRP 20-24(59).

Contractor's work is in progress and is not a NCHRP report nor does it represent the panel's views.

The NCHRP work is intended to inform AASHTO members' policy-development discussions and does not include making recommendations on matters of policy.

Climate Change is Real .and Poses Major Risks

"Warming of the climate system is unequivocal..."

-- Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

"An overwhelming body of scientific evidence paints a clear picture: climate change is happening, it is caused in large part by human activity, and it will have many serious and potentially damaging effects in the decades ahead."

3rd LEG: VMT (continued)

VMT growth is already slowing down, due to fuel prices and demographic changes

4th Leg: Vehicle/System Operations

10-20% LDV GHG reduction potential:

Manage speed (40-50 MPH is optimal)

Reduce congestion, accel-decel

Encourage "eco driving"

Use LRR tires, inflated optimally

Minimize weight and drag

What About Federal Cap and Trade Legislation?

S.2191 (Lieberman-Warner):

Imposes a declining cap on GHG for power plants, oil importers and refiners, industrial sources

Reduces U.S. GHG 66% below 2005 levels by 2050

Has lower effect on transportation GHG

Increases energy prices, with gas prices $1.40 higher by 2050

Allocates $171 billion to transit over 38 years

Lowers U.S. GDP 0.9-3.8% in 2050

Prices Are Key to GHG Reduction

Higher energy prices are essential to promote energy conservation and new technologies in all sectors

In transport, pricing can be powerful:

PAYD Insurance

Mileage fees

Parking pricing

Congestion pricing

Vehicle "feebates"

Fleet characteristics influenced by fiscal incentives

What About Land Use?

"It is realistic to assume a 30 percent cut in VMT with compact development."

"... smart growth could ...reduce total transportation-related CO2 emissions from current trends by 7 to 10 percent as of 2050."

Assumes:

67% of development in place in 2050 is new or rehab

60-90% of that development is "smart growth" (equivalent to 15 housing units per acre)

-- "Growing Cooler" by ULI, CCAP, et al, 2007

What About Transit?

Transit serves 1% of PMT and 0% freight in the U.S.

APTA: Transit reduced GHG by 6.9 MMT in 2005* (1/3 of 1% of U.S. transportation GHG)

European Ministers of Transport caution:

"Modal shift policies are usually weak in terms of the quantity of CO2 abated .... Modal shift measures can be effective when well targeted, particularly when integrated with demand management measures. They can not, however, form the corner-stone of effective CO2 abatement policy....."

Many States Are Developing Aggressive Climate Action Plans

Prepared by the Committee on Energy and Commerce statt - February 2008

Statewide Climate Change Action Plans – Transportation Elements

State

Year

Vehicle

Low
Carbon
Fuels

Smart
Growth and
Transit

Other

AZ

2020

40%

7%

25%

28%

CA

2020

54%

6%

38%

2%

CO

2020

40%

26%

22%

13%

MT

2020

61%

24%

8%

7%

NM

2020

31%

21%

16%

31%

OR

2025

80%

14%

6%

0%

WA

2020

8%

23%

64%

5%

Statewide Climate Change Action Plans –Transportation Elements

State

Year

Vehicle

Low
Carbon
Fuels

Smart
Growth and
Transit

Other

MN

2025

15%

35%

25%

25%

NC

2020

35%

12%

38%

15%

SC

2020

14%

55%

29%

1%

CT

2020

51%

38%

8%

2%

ME

2020

53%

25%

21%

1%

MD

2025

24%

12%

45%

20%

NY

2020

59%

11%

27%

4%

PA

2025

45%

36%

18%

0%

RI

2020

46%

10%

31%

14%

VT

2028

21%

14%

49%

17%

How Much Will it Cost to Reduce GHG?

Four Views on Reducing Transportation GHG

David Greene and Andreas Schaefer, for Pew Center on Climate Change (2003)

European Council of Ministers of Transport (2006)

Sir Isaac Stern, "The Stern Report to the U.K. Government" (2007)

ULI "Growing Cooler" report (2007)

1. David Greene and Andreas Schaefer, for Pew Center

A comprehensive, tailored set of policies could cut U.S. transportation GHG in half by 2030

2. European Council of .Ministers of Transport (2006)

"The most effective measures available include fuel taxes, vehicle and component standards, differentiated vehicle taxation, support for eco-driving and incentives for more efficient logistic organization, including point of use pricing for roads. "

Mode shifts ... can not ... form the corner-stone of effective CO2 abatement policy and the prominence given to modal shift policies is at odds with indications that most modal shift policies achieve much lower abatement levels than measures focusing on fuel efficiency."

"Ultimately higher cost energy sources .... will be required if there are to be further cuts in transport sector CO2 emissions."

3. "Stern Review" for U.K. Government (2007)

"Transport is one of the more expensive sectors to cut emissions from because the low carbon technologies tend to be expensive and the welfare costs of reducing demand for travel are high."

"Transport will be among the last sectors to bring its emissions down below current levels."

" [I]n the period beyond 2100, total GHG emissions will have to be just 20% of current levels. It is impossible to imagine how this can be achieved without a decarbonized transport sector."

4. ULI "Growing Cooler" .Report, 2007

"...the U.S. transportation sector cannot do its fair share ... through vehicle and fuel technology alone. We have to find a way to sharply reduce the growth in vehicle miles driven...."

Climate Adaptation Will be as Important as GHG Reduction

"Climate change will affect transportation primarily through increases in several types of weather and climate extremes... very hot days; intense precipitation events; intense hurricanes; drought; and rising sea levels, coupled with storm surges and land subsidence."

"The impacts .... will be widespread and costly in both human and economic terms and will require significant changes in the planning, design, construction, operation, and maintenance of transportation systems."