Why Turkey probably won't invade northern Syria

Following a
vow he made last week that Turkey "will never allow the
establishment of a new state on our southern frontier in the
north of Syria," Turkish president Recep Erdogan has been
suggesting military intervention in northern Syria to curb
growing Kurdish autonomy.

"This is not the first time that Turkey has threatened to
intervene since the Syrian civil war has begun, and in the past
the bluster has been either an attempt to get NATO more involved
or a domestic political gambit," Michael Koplow, program
director of the Israel Institute and an analyst of Middle Eastern
politics, told Business Insider.

"Ultimately I think the far more likely
scenario is looser rules of engagement for Turkish soldiers
manning the Syrian border, and perhaps airstrikes, but no ground
troops," Koplow added.

Turkey has
been heretofore reluctant to join the fighting on its border.
Last year, Ankara watched a failed ISIS campaign to take the
Syrian border city of Kobani after it was met with US airstrikes
and fierce resistance from the Kurdish YPG militia.

Military control in Syria
after recent victories by the Kurds.Twitter/@Karybdamoid

Last week ISIS militants,
disguised as YPG militiamen,reinvaded
Kobani, killing over 200
civilians in just over 48 hours. The militants were eventually
driven out by Kurdish forces, who later
accused Turkeyof allowing
at least one ISIS bomber to cross freely into Kobani.

It remains unclear where the militants came from, and this is not
the first time Turkey has been accused of
letting ISIS thrive along its border.

Koplow noted
that all evidence so far suggests that the fighters who overran
Kobani last week did not come in from Turkey.

"But given the huge distrust of
Ankara among Kurds — and Turkey’s obvious distress at the gains
made by the [Syrian Kurdish party] PYD — the perception matters
more than the truth at this point," he added.

Kurdish fighters carrying
their parties' flags in Tel Abyad of Raqqa governorate after they
said they took control of the area, June 15,
2015.REUTERS/Rodi
Said

The PYD, for
its part, has denied that it is trying to establish an autonomous
state along the border. Nevertheless, following the fall of
Syrian border city Tal Abyad to the Kurds in
May, a
pro-government newspaper declared the Kurdish PYD to be "more dangerous
than ISIS."

Still, Erdogan currently lacks both the political and the popular
support to wage a military incursion into northern Syria.

"There are a number of serious obstacles to Turkey putting
boots on the ground in Syria," Koplow noted, including "the fact
that it will cause huge upheaval in southeastern Turkey if the
operations are perceived to be aimed at tamping down Kurdish
sovereignty in Syria" and the "unpopularity of the government’s
Syria policy among Turks in general."

The front-page story of
pro-government daily Sabah last Friday. The headline reads: "PYD
is more dangerous than Daesh."Screengrab

Erdogan may also lack support from his own military: Generals
have reportedly expressed reservations about getting drawn into
the conflict for fear of retaliation attacks from both ISIS and
Kurds inside Turkey,
The Daily Beast reported.

They are also reluctant to take orders from a government that is
"basically deposed," an anonymous security source
told Al-Monitor in Ankara. Erdogan's governing Justice
Development Party
lost its parliamentary majority during elections in June.

“This risk really worries the military," the source said.
"Erdogan and the AKP [his political party], with their massive
media power, could engineer a major perception of victory and use
that to go for early elections."

“Such an operation requires clear operational orders, a
clear strategic goal, clear rules of engagement, clear
definitions of friend and foe and a well-drawn-out calendar,"
another source told Al-Monitor. "At the moment all these are very
unclear, even obscure. Under such uncertainty, how can you issue
operational and tactical orders to your units?”

Turkey's President Tayyip
Erdogan greets parliamentarians as he arrives at the Turkish
parliament in Ankara, Turkey, June 23, 2015.REUTERS/Umit Bektas

Establishing a Turkish military presence within Syria
without a clear strategic goal would mean, in some areas, the
Turkish Army “fighting ISIS street to street," Aaron Stein, an expert
on Turkey and an associate fellow at the Royal United Services
Institute, told The New York Times.