Qualifying Offer Rumors: Sunday

The deadline for teams to issue qualifying offers is on Monday at 5pm EST. Between now and then, we’ll likely hear some chatter about players that likely will or will not receive the QO. It’s valued at $17.4MM this year. Those who need to brush up on the new rules should read this primer.

While quite a few situations are obvious (in either direction), it’s worth bearing in mind that there have been surprises in the past. Here’s some QO-related chatter that’s been floating around on Sunday.

The Rays are likely to issue a qualifying offer to right-handed starter Alex Cobb, Mark Feinsand of MLB.com hears (Twitter link). Cobb pitched to a 3.66 ERA with a typically strong 47.8% ground ball rate across 179 1/3 innings in his first full season since undergoing Tommy John surgery. The 30-year-old started 29 games in 2017. The MLBTR team predicts a four-year, $48MM contract for him.

Bruce Levine of CBS Chicago opines that the Cubs will issue a QO to both Jake Arrieta and Wade Davis (something that has long seemed likely). He further speculates that the (unlikely) event of Davis accepting the offer would represent an ideal scenario for the Cubs, who don’t have an obvious replacement for him in the closer role aside from perhaps Carl Edwards Jr., who struggled with command in the playoffs and has only 107 innings of major league experience. Both Arrieta and Davis rank among MLBTR’s top ten free agents.

The Rangers are not expected to extend a QO to right-handed starter Andrew Cashner, Jon Heyman of FanRag reports via Twitter. He notes that the Rangers were considering the move, but that certainly would have been surprising given Cashner’s injury history and poor peripherals. Though he managed a 3.40 ERA across 166 2/3 innings in 2017, Cashner struck out an alarmingly low 4.64 batters per nine innings. He seemingly benefitted from some BABIP- and homer/fly ball rate-related luck as evidenced by his 5.30 xFIP. The MLBTR team predicted a 2-year, $20MM contract for Cashner, ranking him as the 27th-best free agent available.

If Cobb was really only looking at 4/48. I might be tempted to the roll dice and take the QO. There’d be no compensation attached to him next year and he’d already have a 17.5 mil guarantee. I think he’s going to be looking at more money than that though.

It’s a 30 million dollar gamble. There’s no doubt a lot of risk involved but if his market is truly only 4 and 48 it’d have to be considered. Injury risk is always there but another solid season coming off TJ would get him a 4/48 next season. I expect him to reject but I don’t think it’s a real easy decision. There’s some upside to accepting and providing another healthy season of 175+ innings. Obviously don’t know Alex cobb’s risk preferences. We’ll see how it goes.

Maybe for a position player, but if his market is 4/48 now, have to assume it’s going to be about the same next year when he’s a year older assuming he performs equal to 2017. Pitchers, especially pitchers who have had their skulls literally cracked by line drives AND Tommy John should always go with the guarantee.

The assumption is his market will be about the same next year. He’d make around 48mil plus the QO he took this year. Thats the basis for the argument. I think he’ll be getting more than 48 this year though so i really don’t see it happening for that reason.

I have to think Cobb is going to more than 48milion. There are certainly some red flags. The most innings he’s ever thrown is 178 and he did that last year. Only a year removed from TJ, but his competition is pretty thin. Arrieta, Darvish, Lynn, Cobb and then a pile of question marks. Ian Kennedy got a sizable guarantee, wei yen Chen, nolasco, ubaldo etc all got more than that.

And on that note. Cobb’s lack of innings could be interpreted as a lack of durability or you could go and say he doesn’t have a lot of miles on his arm. Can make a solid argument either way. He has good control so you won’t have to worry about him not throwing strikes. He seems to be a fairly safe middle of the rotation starter to me.

I just picked the bad. There’s plenty of good in there as well. Jason Vargas signed for much less and was a good value. ERvin Santana was definitely a good value signing. Hell mike leave got 80 mil. There’s guys on both sides of the coin and you have to factor in inflation as well. Ubaldo jimenez’s 4/50 back in 2012 is more like a 4/56 now. Think Cobb will top the 50m mark by a decent amount.