Sunday, May 27, 2012

Egypt election offers youth and soccer fans second chance

The Arab
world’s first free and fair presidential elections pose a dilemma and a wake-up
call for militant Egyptian soccer fans and revolutionary youth groups as the
two surviving candidates seek to win their votes in a run-off next month in
which a majority of the votes are up for grabs.

To many
analysts, the results of the first round of the elections that produced ousted
President Hosni Mubarak’s last prime minister Ahmed Shafiq and the Muslim
Brotherhood’s Mohammed Morsi as the two surviving candidates, illustrate the
marginalization of the revolutionaries and the soccer fans. Yet, a closer look
shows that the result constitutes both a
narrow defeat and an opportunity for those in Egypt yearning for real change
rather than an immediate restoration of stability in the face of growing
unemployment and rising street crime.

In a
country that 15 months after Mr. Mubarak’s departure has grown protest weary
and yearns for a return to economic growth and security, Messrs. Morsi and
Shafiq’s victory reflects the fact that they represent the two Egyptian forces
with an institutionalized political machinery and political experience. Mr.
Shafiq moreover benefitted from a state-owned media that portrayed the youth
and soccer fan groups as responsibility for the post-revolt instability and
economic decline.

Nonetheless,
the two candidates favored by the revolutionaries – independent Islamist Abdel
Moneim Abul Fotouh and Nasserist Hamdeen Sabahi – together won 40 per cent of
the vote. They failed to make it into the run-off because they split the vote
for change. “The Mubarak camp understood that for them this first round was now
or never. They had to win. We were divided in the spirit of democracy. We would
have won had we decided to support one candidate,” said a militant soccer fan.

In a
potentially explosive move, Mr. Sabahi has called for a partial vote recount,
citing violations that he says could change the outcome given that he failed to
make the cut for the run-off by a margin of only 700,000 votes. For their part,
Messrs. Morsi and Shafiq secured 49 per cent of the vote in a first round in
which 13 candidates stood for office. Mr. Morsi’s 25 per cent is a far cry from
the 46 per cent the Brotherhood won in last year’s parliamentary election.

As a
result, Messrs. Morsi and Shafiq focused barely 48 hours after the first round
on seeking to convince youth groups and soccer fans that they stand for change
rather than for preserving as much of Mr.

Mubarak’s repressive regime as
possible or an accommodation that would secure the role, privileges and perks
of Egypt’s transitory military rulers. Theirs are campaigns that are already
shaping up ones that play on people’s fears – the fear of the restoration of
the Mubarak regime versus the fear of Islamic rule. Nonetheless, swaying the
youth and soccer fan groups is likely to prove a tall order, albeit one that may
be easier for Mr. Morsi than for Mr. Shafiq.

For the
youth groups and soccer fans who were at the core of last year’s mass protests
that toppled Mr.

Mubarak and since then fought pitched street battles against
security forces in a bid to force the
military to return to its barracks Mr. Shafiq is unpalatable. Mr. Morsi, with
youth groups and militant, highly politicized, well organized violence-prone,
street battled-hardened soccer fan groups or ultras debating whether to rally
behind the Muslim Brotherhood leader or boycott the next election, stands a
reasonable chance of securing at least a segment of the revolutionary vote. Nonetheless,
it remains for the youth and soccer fan groups a choice between two evils.

Mr. Shafiq,
who was forced to resign shortly after the toppling of Mr. Mubarak defended the
former president’s regime long after his departure and made criticism of the
revolt a pillar of his first round election campaign, sought this weekend to
assure the youth groups, soccer fans and undecided voters that he intended to realize
the goals of their revolt. He vowed that there would be no "recreation of
the old regime" and said he was “fed up with being labeled 'old regime’. All
Egyptians are part of the old regime," he said.

That is
unlikely to cut him much slack with youth groups and soccer fans who see him as
co-responsible for the bloody street battles with security forces and
pro-Mubarak thugs in which hundreds of people were killed in the walk-up to the
ousting of the president. Mr. Shafiq was appointed prime minister by Mr.
Mubarak four days after last year’s protests erupted in a last ditch attempt to
squash the demonstrations and left office barely two weeks after the president
was ousted.

Addressing
the youth groups and soccer fans in an about face at a news conference this
weekend, Mr. Shafiq said: "Your revolution has been hijacked. I pledge to
bring its fruits between your hands. Egypt has changed and there will be no
turning back the clock. We have had a glorious revolution. I pay tribute to
this glorious revolution and pledge to be faithful to its call for justice and
freedom."

If Mr.
Shafiq’s legacy is one that he will find hard to live down, Mr. Morsi will have
to alter the perception that youth and soccer fan groups believe that the
Brotherhood’s repeated willingness to accommodate the military in the
post-revolt phase, including its backing for last year’s March 19 referendum on
constitutional amendments, helped derail their revolt aimed at achieving social
justice and greater freedom.

That
referendum among others contributed to a situation in which decisions of the five-member
Elections Committee, headed by an obscure judge originally appointed by Mr.
Mubarak to oversee his son’s succession and whose deputy is a judge believed to
be close to the ruling Supreme Council of the Armed Forces, are final and
cannot be appealed. It also has led to a president being elected without his
powers being defined by a constitution that has yet to be drafted.

“Morsi has
a lot to answer for. He nonetheless stands a fighting chance to convince at
least some of us that he is the better of two evils. Shafiq will appeal to
those who want a return to stability and an end to the revolution. But he won’t
find any buyers among the youth and the ultras,” said one militant soccer fan
who is a yet undecided whether he will vote in next month’s run-off.

James M. Dorsey is a senior fellow at the S. Rajaratnam
School of International Studies at Nanyang Technological University in
Singapore, author of the blog, The Turbulent World of Middle East
Soccer, and a consultant to geopolitical consulting firm Wikistrat.

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About Me

James M DorseyWelcome to The Turbulent World of Middle East Soccer by James M. Dorsey, a senior fellow at Nanyang Technological University’s S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies. Soccer in the Middle East and North Africa is played as much on as off the pitch. Stadiums are a symbol of the battle for political freedom; economic opportunity; ethnic, religious and national identity; and gender rights. Alongside the mosque, the stadium was until the Arab revolt erupted in late 2010 the only alternative public space for venting pent-up anger and frustration. It was the training ground in countries like Egypt and Tunisia where militant fans prepared for a day in which their organization and street battle experience would serve them in the showdown with autocratic rulers. Soccer has its own unique thrill – a high-stakes game of cat and mouse between militants and security forces and a struggle for a trophy grander than the FIFA World Cup: the future of a region. This blog explores the role of soccer at a time of transition from autocratic rule to a more open society. It also features James’s daily political comment on the region’s developments. Contact: incoherentblog@gmail.comView my complete profile