THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 65 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES NORTH OF DE QUEEN ARKANSAS TO 50 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF PINE BLUFF ARKANSAS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

DISCUSSION...DISCRETE STORMS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ALONG THE DRYLINE NEAR THE RED RIVER IN SE OK...WHILE OTHER CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FARTHER S IN NE TX THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. THESE STORMS WILL MOVE ENEWD INTO THE WARM SECTOR AND MATURE...AND WILL ENCOUNTER AN INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR TORNADOES IN AR. LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS VERY STRONG ALONG A RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS CENTRAL AR...AND THE LOW LEVELS WILL SLOWLY WARM AND MOISTEN IN THE WAKE OF EARLIER CONVECTION. DISCRETE SUPERCELLS MOVING INTO THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LONG TRACK...STRONG/VIOLENT TORNADOES WELL INTO THE EVENING.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24035.

Last county in Mississippi shaded in green in the NE sector. Its pretty wet. I just hope the red doesn’t move over here and goes NE of here. In the past Arkansas is just a day’s notice of what we are going to get.

The tornado watch area is approximately along and 65 statute miles north and south of a line from 30 miles north of de queen arkansas to 50 miles east northeast of pine bluff arkansas. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (wous64 kwns wou0).

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

Remember...A tornado watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings.

Discussion...Discrete storms are beginning to develop along the dryline near the red river in se ok...While other convection is expected to develop farther s in ne tx the remainder of the afternoon. These storms will move enewd into the warm sector and mature...And will encounter an increasingly favorable environment for tornadoes in ar. Low-level shear is very strong along a residual outflow boundary across central ar...And the low levels will slowly warm and moisten in the wake of earlier convection. Discrete supercells moving into this environment will have the potential to produce long track...Strong/violent tornadoes well into the evening.

Aviation...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 70 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 24035.

The agenda is important, but their biggest “target” is viewers. They’ve been remaking/re-branding the channel for the last couple of years, but much of their reality programming hasn’t worked out very well. So, they’re always on the lookout for a major weather event to juice the ratings.

I’m a weather buff and I’ve been watching their coverage since early afternoon. I think you said it well when described them as being in full “apocalypse” mode. They’ve actually got Jim Cantore broadcasting from the Storm Prediction Center in Norman, but I’ve noticed they’ve put him in a small room with one of the SPC’s coordinating mets who just happens to be his former college classmates.

Still, it’s a bit funny that the “experts” at TWC put Mike Bettes in SW Missouri when most of the tornadic activity has been in Nebraska and Iowa (so far), and conditions are getting ripe in SE Oklahoma and much of Arkansas is under a PDS watch.

A friend of mine who’s still in broadcast news tells me that wall-to-wall weather coverage will boost your ratings 15-20% at a minimum, and if you’ve got a met who’s well known in the market, the ratings go even higher.

There will be a lot of “weather-gasms” on the TWC and at local stations in the south and Midwest over the next couple of days.

will boost your ratings 15-20% at a minimum, and if youve got a met whos well known in the market, the ratings go even higher.

Been in Pittsburgh radio since the early '80's.

Very difficult market to predict.

Waiting to retire I can say today it's all smoke and mirrors, Has been for a long time.

I have my own modest PWS and it is more accurate than TV/radio forecasts.

One problem is radio now relies on TV forecasts (branding/cross promo) which typically covers a larger area. So we forecast snow in our "local" area when in reality it can be a hundred miles away or a thousand feet higher in elevation.

One year to retire...not that it means much in radio...but I don't want to make waves, LOL! My company has gone from 30+ markets to less than 20 in a few years. Tulsa, OK City and west of the Mississippi are all sold.

Outside of Pittsburgh and a couple of FL stations the company is done.

16
posted on 04/27/2014 3:28:18 PM PDT
by prisoner6
(I will not be pushed, filed, stamped, indexed, briefed, debriefed or numbered! I AM A FREE MAN!)

* AT 548 PM CDT...A CONFIRMED LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO
WAS LOCATED NEAR GALENA...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO. A TORNADO IS ON THE GROUND NEAR
GALENA. DAMAGE HAS BEEN REPORTED IN BAXTER SPRINGS.

SOURCE...EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT CONFIRMED TORNADO.

IMPACT...YOU ARE IN A LIFE THREATENING SITUATION. FLYING DEBRIS
WILL BE DEADLY TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE
HOMES WILL BE DESTROYED. CONSIDERABLE DAMAGE TO HOMES...
BUSINESSES AND VEHICLES IS LIKELY AND COMPLETE DESTRUCTION
POSSIBLE.

So far a big nothing here in southwest Arkansas. According to the Weather Channel we should have been destroyed a dozen times over today. I don’t want to be destroyed even once, but the Weather Channel folks are a bit much.

35
posted on 04/27/2014 5:02:57 PM PDT
by AceMineral
(Some people are slaves of their own stupidity.)

It’s not the Weather Channel...they are just reporting that Arkansas was in the HIGH RISK today...I think based on the last several years of tornado disasters they want to make sure the word gets out...it looks like you dodged a bullet. It looks like outflow from the mornings storms may have impacted the severity of the storms that formed in the afternoon. The parameters were there for violent tornadoes. This is/was a tough forecast...

AT 710 PM CDT...STORM SPOTTERS AND NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING A CONFIRMED TORNADO WITH REPORTS OF
DAMAGE. THIS POTENTIALLY DEADLY TORNADO WAS LOCATED 5 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF LAKE MAUMELLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

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