A bleak outlook for water availability for the year throughout Morgan County irrigation districts was the topic addressed by Riverside Irrigation Superintendent Don Chapman at the Brush Area Chamber of Commerce's recent monthly luncheon.

"It's a very deep subject," began Chapman, who ignited the discussion with puns and chuckles. He discussed everything from river flows and water usage administration to river development, local ditch systems, irrigation and even an outlook on water supply and demand through the year.

When the first settlers came to the Morgan County area, the South Platte River would dry up in the summer months completely. Because of human design and innovations in agriculture and technology, this pattern no longer exists.

When showing a cross section of the South Platte alluvian aquifer in Brush, Chapman noted that the city has more water capacity than many other areas along the river, making Brush a prime locale for implementing high-capacity irrigation systems.

It was in the 1880s when the oldest and most senior ditch system in the county was built, the Weldon Valley ditch, which now irrigates up to 10,000 acres.

In Brush, it is the Upper Platte and Beaver ditches, which divert water from the South Platte near Rainbow Bridge in Fort Morgan, and annually helps irrigate acres of farmland (nearly 10,000 acres for the Upper portion) and the Lower Platte and Beaver ditches which irrigate nearly 15,000 acres.

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In his projections for water supply in 2013, Chapman noted, "This year we are still filling reservoirs, even into April, when usually they are filled by March."

Although senior direct flow irrigation rights owners have put off their own demands as winter storms continue to hit the area, keeping reservoirs in a filling status, the chances are very slim that all reservoirs in the area will be filled this year .

Chapman compared the upcoming year to prior years in water, and according to his report card, if a drought-busting storm fails to hit the Morgan County area by late June, the outlook is bleak.

"Although when you look at the base supply of water in 2013 compared to 2012 we see that this drought we are currently in the second year of is certainly weakening the base river flows, but return flows are supporting that."

"Even in this, the second year of drought conditions," continued Chapman, "we see Morgan County doing well, but another year of drought could prove damaging. It needs to end," he finished, "or we could see conditions not seen since the 1950s."

Factors that Chapman considered for his water forecast included reservoir storage, which he reiterates may see many reservoirs failing to fill this year. Last year, in this category, he gave the county an A and this year he projects a grade of C.

Although recent storms have helped local soil moisture content in the area, much more is needed to avert another drought and although 2012 earned a grade of B, this year he projects a grade of C.

In base river flows, last year Morgan County received a grade of B and this year it is down to a C.

The snowpack is currently 71 percent of normal on the South Platte as far as drainage is concerned, and according to Chapman, unless that number is above 80 percent, not much snowpack makes it to the main streams in the area. That grade has gone from a C to D.

Precipitation was also factored in and last year's grade of F accounted for a lack of winter and spring conditions felt in 2012.