U.S. Inches Closer to Military Crisis with North Korea

The administration has summoned the entire Senate for a briefing at the White House to discuss what happens next.

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By Pete Marovich/Bloomberg.

Neither Donald Trump nor Kim Jong-un are backing down as the risk of a military conflict between two of the world’s most unpredictable leaders grows. On Tuesday, North Korea staged a series of long-range artillery drills to commemorate the founding of its military, just as the United States and its allies conducted naval exercises in the Yellow Sea and the U.S.S. Michigan, a submarine furnished with Tomahawk missiles, arrived in South Korea. The escalated rhetoric and posturing by both countries, which follows weeks of heightened tensions across the Pacific, has raised alarms throughout the international community that the decades-long standoff between the United States and North Korea could rapidly spiral into an outright war.

China, which has long sought to prevent the reunification of the Korean peninsula and is loath to see a war on its doorstep, raced to defuse tensions over the weekend. Chinese President Xi Jingping, who has been under increased pressure from the U.S. to help curtail the North Korean nuclear threat, reportedly urged Trump to exercise restraint during a phone call on Sunday, and on Tuesday dispatched high-level diplomat Wu Dawei to Japan in an effort to avoid a military crisis that could inflame the region. Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe previously characterized North Korea's nuclear capabilities as an “extremely serious threat” and said Japan, which participated in drills on Sunday with the U.S. Navy, will “respond resolutely.” The South Korean military said in a statement that it is “closely watching the North Korean military’s movements” and ”maintaining a firm preparedness.”

It is not clear whether Trump’s threats are theater, designed to motivate China to rein in its unruly ally, or represent serious steps toward a military conflict. During a meeting with Security Council ambassadors on Monday, Trump declared that the “status quo in North Korea is unacceptable” and said the country’s growing nuclear capabilities pose a “real threat.” In a highly unusual move, the Trump administration has summoned the entirety of the 100-person Senate to the White House on Wednesday to receive a briefing from Secretary of State Rex Tillerson. Defense Secretary James Mattis, Director of National Intelligence Dan Coats, and General Joseph Dunford of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, prompting further speculation that the U.S. could be on the brink of war. The briefing was originally scheduled to be held in a secure room in the Capitol building but was reportedly moved to the White House in order to signal how seriously the Trump administration takes the North Korean threat. According to a New York Timesreport the Trump administration’s concerns about North Korea have been fueled in part by classified intelligence indicating that Pyongyang—which is expected to conduct its sixth nuclear test soon—has suddenly increased its ability to produce nuclear weapons after decades of incremental progress. And while it is believed that North Korea has yet to produce a missile that can carry a nuclear warhead to the U.S., it is steadily moving closer to that target. Experts told the Times that Kim could have a weapon capable of striking the West Coast as early as 2020, before the end of Trump’s term in office.

These particular war drums may be sounding a familiar beat to Americans who heard similar ultimatums, justifications, and leaked classified intelligence in the months before the U.S. invasion of Iraq in 2003. Still, there are critical differences. Kim, unlike Saddam Hussein, has already tested nuclear weapons, and is believed to be moving toward having a workable hydrogen bomb—a thermonuclear weapon with a thousand times the explosive power of his earlier designs. There are few good diplomatic options available to the international community, which has tried and failed to pressure North Korea to give up its weapons program for decades. Trump appears to be making headway with China, which may be the one country capable of effecting a nonmilitary solution. But Trump, like Kim, is notoriously unpredictable. What happens next will likely be decided by Trump’s national security team, including Tillerson and Mattis. Whatever they tell the Senate on Wednesday is likely to be instructive.

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