2014-10-23 16:00:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good day2014-10-23 16:00:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: how is everyone?2014-10-23 16:00:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: hope that your seat belts had been fastened over the last couple of days...whew!2014-10-23 16:01:07 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: Went long MID at MOC2014-10-23 16:02:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: eek!2014-10-23 16:02:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: :)2014-10-23 16:03:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: remember that SPX 1960 was resistance...I think we backed off from that level2014-10-23 16:03:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: just be careful...we're still not out of the woods here2014-10-23 16:04:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the SML would had been a better choice...just make sure you don't catch yourself thinking that "I'm just early...things will be OK"2014-10-23 16:04:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then get hit 2014-10-23 16:04:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: better to get stopped out to come back another day...blah blah blah :)2014-10-23 16:05:09 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: I know I know I've been late moving in on the long side had to start somewhere 2014-10-23 16:05:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...any questions or comments before we get started??2014-10-23 16:05:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...as long as it was a nibble2014-10-23 16:05:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let me check the BETS before we get started2014-10-23 16:05:42 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: At least I got that right2014-10-23 16:05:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you'll be fine2014-10-23 16:06:40 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: Good to hear thanks2014-10-23 16:07:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: -302014-10-23 16:07:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: playing a lot of EMA tag right now2014-10-23 16:07:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the good news now is...2014-10-23 16:07:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NYAD line is beginning to look constructive2014-10-23 16:08:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and back to a "Get Set" buy signal2014-10-23 16:08:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: EMA's are turning up as well2014-10-23 16:08:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which means....2014-10-23 16:08:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the components should be back above their zero line now2014-10-23 16:08:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we'll see in a moment2014-10-23 16:11:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...let's get SC up and get started2014-10-23 16:11:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: after taking a "pause to refresh" on Wednesday2014-10-23 16:11:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NYSE CO breadth MCO moved higher today2014-10-23 16:12:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it didn't quite take out the recent high point on Tuesday2014-10-23 16:12:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the components2014-10-23 16:12:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we see that we have moved back to a crossover buy signal by the slimmest of margins2014-10-23 16:12:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which also means2014-10-23 16:13:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that the 5% Trend can be construed as completing a simple snapback up to its zero line2014-10-23 16:13:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: because of this2014-10-23 16:13:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the buyers now need to step up on Friday in order to tip the scales in their favor on how next week is likely to go2014-10-23 16:14:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if there is some hesitation in putting more capital to work2014-10-23 16:14:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: then it would be likely that we'll see another 2-3 day choppy consolidation period2014-10-23 16:14:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: while the MCO begins to unwind from its "overbought" condition2014-10-23 16:15:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the NYSE CO breadth MCSUM2014-10-23 16:15:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we see that it's beginning the long progress of moving back to or toward its zero line2014-10-23 16:15:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but with the current reading of -6852014-10-23 16:16:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: any additional bids that we might see for the common stocks that trade on the NYSE will tend to be shallow, without too much conviction, and that any further price advance will likely be built on short positions being covered2014-10-23 16:16:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: at this point2014-10-23 16:16:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: unless we do see higher highs in this MCO in the next day or so2014-10-23 16:17:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we're not likely to move much above the prior congestion area we see on the daily NYA chart at the 10,600 level2014-10-23 16:17:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: then again2014-10-23 16:17:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we have rallied 600 points from the lows of last Wednesday2014-10-23 16:18:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so an extended rest early next week wouldn't be too far fetched either2014-10-23 16:18:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: moving to the NYSE Composite breadth MCO2014-10-23 16:18:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and here we also moved higher today2014-10-23 16:18:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and like the NYSE CO breadth MCO2014-10-23 16:18:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we remain below the highs of Tuesday2014-10-23 16:18:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the NYSE Composite MCO components2014-10-23 16:19:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and just as we figured earlier2014-10-23 16:19:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: both the 10% and 5% Trends are now back above their zero line2014-10-23 16:19:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: again...2014-10-23 16:19:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is what these MCO components represent2014-10-23 16:20:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: just by looking at them you will know which direction the 19 day and 39 day EMA's that are measuring that specific A/D or U/D cumulative line are moving2014-10-23 16:20:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which, of course, is important information if you don't have available the graph of that particular cumulative line2014-10-23 16:20:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: here, for example, if both the 10% and 5% are moving higher2014-10-23 16:20:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the only way that can happen is....2014-10-23 16:20:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yes2014-10-23 16:21:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the A/D line is also moving higher2014-10-23 16:21:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is why it's important that we see internal confirmation between the MCO and it's components2014-10-23 16:21:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for if, for example, the 5% Trend is below its zero line2014-10-23 16:22:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: reflecting that the 39 day EMA is moving lower2014-10-23 16:22:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the 10% is above its zero line2014-10-23 16:22:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: representing that the shorter term 19 day EMA is moving higher2014-10-23 16:23:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: until there is a unanimous decision by both EMA's as to direction2014-10-23 16:23:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: prices can only chop sideways2014-10-23 16:23:50 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: I see it now making more sense2014-10-23 16:23:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which, again, is important information as to knowing the "Trend" in force2014-10-23 16:23:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: :)2014-10-23 16:24:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: like I told you in the beginning2014-10-23 16:24:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it takes time to absorb all of this 2014-10-23 16:24:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but once you get a handle on it2014-10-23 16:24:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: your entry's and exits have a sense of purpose behind them2014-10-23 16:25:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: all we want is to be on the right side of the trade2014-10-23 16:25:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: no guessing2014-10-23 16:25:33 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: :) 2014-10-23 16:25:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we allow the flow of capital dictate to us which IS the right side2014-10-23 16:25:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but as we are emotional creatures2014-10-23 16:26:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we like to lead off at times2014-10-23 16:26:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there is always time2014-10-23 16:26:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and from that you enter and exit on YOUR terms2014-10-23 16:26:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not the markets2014-10-23 16:26:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not what someone says in a newsletter2014-10-23 16:26:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or on TV or radio2014-10-23 16:26:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and especially not from what you read on a message board2014-10-23 16:26:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if you have the right tools2014-10-23 16:27:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you set your own guidelines2014-10-23 16:27:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and from that2014-10-23 16:27:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you will be consistent2014-10-23 16:27:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you may not be right all the time2014-10-23 16:27:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or...better said2014-10-23 16:27:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you may not be positioned in a timely fashion2014-10-23 16:27:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but that's OK too2014-10-23 16:28:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as long as you can say to yourself..."it didn't work this time...let's regroup"2014-10-23 16:28:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and wait for more information2014-10-23 16:28:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the market talks very eloquently2014-10-23 16:28:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it is our job to listen to what it says, and then follow its lead2014-10-23 16:28:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: over the last month2014-10-23 16:29:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we have seen two really good examples of this2014-10-23 16:29:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: while the world was seemingly "falling apart"2014-10-23 16:29:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we got our stand aside signal on 9/192014-10-23 16:29:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we got our cover signal on 10/152014-10-23 16:30:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not that we're going to hit a change in the trend that exactly every time2014-10-23 16:30:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the odds were in our favor2014-10-23 16:30:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and you act 2014-10-23 16:30:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: instead of "reacting"2014-10-23 16:30:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if you're going to be a technician2014-10-23 16:31:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you MUST believe in your indicators2014-10-23 16:31:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and from that2014-10-23 16:31:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you MUST follow through when they give you something to work with2014-10-23 16:31:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: otherwise2014-10-23 16:31:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you'll be just like the other 99% of traders out there who trade by the seat of their pants2014-10-23 16:31:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...moving on2014-10-23 16:32:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NYSE Composite breadth MCSUM now has a reading of -4202014-10-23 16:32:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so here too we have quite a bit still yet to do before we'll see balance between buyers and sellers on an intermediate term basis (6-12 weeks)2014-10-23 16:33:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and while we're on the subject of what these indicators represent to us2014-10-23 16:33:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as the Components tell you the direction of the EMA's2014-10-23 16:33:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the MCSUM tells you when these same EMA's cross each other2014-10-23 16:33:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: when the MCSUM is below the zero line2014-10-23 16:33:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the 19 day EMA is below the 39 day EMA2014-10-23 16:34:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if the MCSUM is above the zero line2014-10-23 16:34:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: then these same two EMA's are in a bullish configuration where the short term EMA is above the intermediate term EMA2014-10-23 16:34:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the only thing that we don't know though in all this is where the cumulative line is in relation to its 1% Trend which is the 200 day EMA2014-10-23 16:35:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this is also important information2014-10-23 16:35:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for if the MCSUM is above the zero line2014-10-23 16:35:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: saying that the 19 day EMA is above the 39 day EMA2014-10-23 16:35:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it probably makes a difference then where this is taking place...are these EMA's above or below the 200 day EMA?2014-10-23 16:36:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: being above the 1% Trend tells us that the longer term trend of the market is higher2014-10-23 16:36:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: being below the 1% Trend tells us that the longer term trend of the market is lower2014-10-23 16:36:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the MCO?2014-10-23 16:37:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it measures the SPEED in which these same EMA's, the 19 day and the 39 day, are either moving toward or away from each other2014-10-23 16:37:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with this knowledge then2014-10-23 16:37:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you can ballpark the time it will take for them to either cross over 2014-10-23 16:38:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or...when they are likely to pause2014-10-23 16:38:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and with all this information2014-10-23 16:38:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we can then determine not only the underlying health of the price action2014-10-23 16:38:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but also the approximate time it will take to reach a specific goal2014-10-23 16:39:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: powerful stuff2014-10-23 16:39:27 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: I'll say thank you again2014-10-23 16:39:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: any questions before I move on?2014-10-23 16:39:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's a real eye opener once you see it in action2014-10-23 16:40:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: no one in here is a so called guru2014-10-23 16:40:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: all we're doing is watching the direction and velocity in which money is either moving in or out of the market2014-10-23 16:40:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then taking this knowledge and coming up with a reasonable outcome2014-10-23 16:41:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: no talk of crashes or melt ups2014-10-23 16:41:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we just have to have a "reasonable expectation"2014-10-23 16:41:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is not a sprint2014-10-23 16:41:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: no one is here to fluff their plumage2014-10-23 16:41:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there are many who thrive on being right2014-10-23 16:42:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: here...it's better to let the market tell us what it can do2014-10-23 16:42:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then attempt to see, but other technical means, what would be a reasonable outcome of such information2014-10-23 16:43:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...sorry...coming off the soap box now :)2014-10-23 16:43:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking still at the NYSE Composite breadth MCSUM2014-10-23 16:43:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and you'll see that not only do we remain below the zero line2014-10-23 16:43:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: telling us that the sellers have control of the action2014-10-23 16:43:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but we remain below a series of declining, divergent tops as well2014-10-23 16:44:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so until we see the MCSUM move above its zero line2014-10-23 16:44:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then break above this declining trend of resistance2014-10-23 16:44:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we can play the long side since the MCSUM is rising2014-10-23 16:44:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but we can't go all in 2014-10-23 16:44:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we have to have a plan and stick to it2014-10-23 16:44:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: after all2014-10-23 16:45:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: trading and investing is a business2014-10-23 16:45:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's YOUR business2014-10-23 16:45:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if you keep making mistakes2014-10-23 16:45:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you're going to go "out of business"2014-10-23 16:45:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and no one wants that2014-10-23 16:45:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: moving to the NASDAQ breadth MCO2014-10-23 16:46:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and here we see that it also bounced higher today2014-10-23 16:46:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: while looking at the NASDAQ MCO components2014-10-23 16:46:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we see that the NASDAQ 10% Trend did indeed snapback to its zero line on Wednesday2014-10-23 16:46:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then bounced off this same line today2014-10-23 16:46:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: unfortunately though2014-10-23 16:47:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the 5% still below its zero line2014-10-23 16:47:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: unless we get follow through quickly here2014-10-23 16:47:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we're likely to see a near term "rally failure" develop2014-10-23 16:47:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: from where a price top would be seen2014-10-23 16:47:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and unlike Tuesday's expectation of maybe a one day rest2014-10-23 16:48:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we will get 2 or 3 days of backing and filling starting as soon as Friday2014-10-23 16:48:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which would allow this MCO to snapback to its zero line 2014-10-23 16:48:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: to go neutral...have balance between buyers and sellers2014-10-23 16:48:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then attempt a new plan2014-10-23 16:49:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the price action2014-10-23 16:49:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we see that we have now met our minimal upside price target area today2014-10-23 16:49:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and though we had a mid range close2014-10-23 16:50:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it wouldn't be too surprising to see a little more follow through on the current momentum generated by this current reflex2014-10-23 16:50:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: before seeing this expectation of a price ceiling2014-10-23 16:51:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: again2014-10-23 16:51:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: thinking back to our previous discussion2014-10-23 16:51:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if we look at the MCO, the MCO components, and the MCSUM2014-10-23 16:51:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we have a pretty good feel on what the NASDAQ marketplace is able to do right now2014-10-23 16:51:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and it's not much more than what we have right currently 2014-10-23 16:52:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: moving to the NDX breadth MCO2014-10-23 16:52:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we see that today's bounce did take out Tuesday's high point2014-10-23 16:52:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so this is good news for the top 100 stocks2014-10-23 16:52:49 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: just to pontificate, this move up is a bit "gappy" and doesn't look structurally corrective to me-"so far"2014-10-23 16:53:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this would logically happen more with this index than the broader based NASDAQ Composite because of the current positions of the MCO components and the MCSUM and it's zero line2014-10-23 16:54:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yes Lew...it's not congested2014-10-23 16:54:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that's important2014-10-23 16:54:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: because if the buyers were being tepid here2014-10-23 16:54:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: then this reflex rally would lead to another swoon very quickly once any of the vapors still left over were finally extinguished2014-10-23 16:55:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but since we do have some nice individual postings to the upside2014-10-23 16:55:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's constructive2014-10-23 16:55:16 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: the ratio adjusted ripped through that first bit of gap resistance like butter, as well2014-10-23 16:55:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it's far from being something in which you can act on as a trader2014-10-23 16:55:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yep2014-10-23 16:56:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and now we have one or two more to go through2014-10-23 16:56:10 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: just hearing tiny whispers-you know...2014-10-23 16:56:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I kinda of likened Tuesday to a 20 megaton bomb :)2014-10-23 16:56:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: absolutely2014-10-23 16:56:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: look...2014-10-23 16:56:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: no one would expect a sudden shift after such a sell off2014-10-23 16:56:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it wouldn't be reasonable2014-10-23 16:57:00 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: nope2014-10-23 16:57:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it may be emotionally exciting to think about2014-10-23 16:57:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but as a technician2014-10-23 16:57:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we still have to build enough of a foundational platform before prices can move against the bear market default2014-10-23 16:57:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: my favorite analogy being2014-10-23 16:57:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if you try to climb a 2 story building on a ladder2014-10-23 16:58:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and one or both of the footings are in soft dirt2014-10-23 16:58:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you'll likely make it up partially 2014-10-23 16:58:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but then you'll start to topple over because you don't the necessary foundation to keep your weight from shifting2014-10-23 16:59:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: having one foot on concrete and the other in this same dirt would get you higher2014-10-23 16:59:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but you know what will happen eventually...you'll eventually topple over2014-10-23 16:59:20 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: strong breadth was firm today too, didn't waver much, and WOW, just noticed how much the NDX took back2014-10-23 16:59:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: oh...that reminds me2014-10-23 16:59:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let me take a quick look at the ZBT2014-10-23 16:59:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: one sec2014-10-23 17:00:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: stall 2014-10-23 17:00:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: :)2014-10-23 17:00:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: see...you have to allow the market work its magic2014-10-23 17:00:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and now it's day 82014-10-23 17:00:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it looks easy to do to generate a Zweig Breadth Thrust2014-10-23 17:00:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it's not2014-10-23 17:01:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: disappointing, I know2014-10-23 17:01:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but what isn't in this line of work? :)2014-10-23 17:01:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it keeps us coming back...that's for sure2014-10-23 17:02:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...so with this higher high in the NDX breadth MCO2014-10-23 17:02:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the price action can now challenge its recovery highs on this current bounce2014-10-23 17:02:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: more to the point2014-10-23 17:02:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's likely now that the price action will be able to close above 4050 level and stay there2014-10-23 17:03:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a divergent top as well on the SPX breadth MCO2014-10-23 17:03:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the components remain on a buy signal2014-10-23 17:03:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so any pullback here would likely to find support at the zero lines2014-10-23 17:03:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a good visualization here would be...2014-10-23 17:04:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the SPX A/D line will move lower to test the 19 day EMA2014-10-23 17:04:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and maybe the 39 day EMA as well2014-10-23 17:04:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and at this point2014-10-23 17:04:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: would likely find support because of the amount of fuel that came in earlier in the week2014-10-23 17:04:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: also got a higher high in the OEX breadth MCO as well2014-10-23 17:05:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so since the broader market did not move to higher high2014-10-23 17:05:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the large caps did2014-10-23 17:05:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this then tells us that it's likely that we'll see higher price highs over the next couple of days in these same large cap indices2014-10-23 17:05:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the broader market will lag2014-10-23 17:06:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: unless, of course, we see money shift again and support the broader market2014-10-23 17:06:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but for tomorrow2014-10-23 17:06:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is all the market is able to do with the information we have at this time2014-10-23 17:06:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this is part of your plan2014-10-23 17:06:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: notice how the Dow breadth MCO did indeed snapback to its zero line like we talked about on Tuesday2014-10-23 17:07:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then it bounced off this line today showing that money is supporting the buy side of the trade2014-10-23 17:07:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and with this higher high in the Dow breadth MCO2014-10-23 17:07:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this tells us that there was more money supporting prices today than it was on Tuesday2014-10-23 17:07:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: keep this stuff simple2014-10-23 17:07:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's all supply and demand2014-10-23 17:08:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: no voodoo here2014-10-23 17:08:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you're watching the pulse of money2014-10-23 17:08:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: where it's moving2014-10-23 17:08:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and by what rate its moving2014-10-23 17:08:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: rate = support2014-10-23 17:08:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the MID breadth MCO also bounced today2014-10-23 17:09:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and remains highly "overbought" at this juncture2014-10-23 17:09:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the components2014-10-23 17:09:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we see that we have both the 19 day and 39 day EMA's trending higher2014-10-23 17:09:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which means that the MID A/D line is moving higher2014-10-23 17:09:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let me check how close it is to its all time highs...one moment2014-10-23 17:10:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's quite a ways away2014-10-23 17:10:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: however2014-10-23 17:10:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the MID A/D line pulled back to its 39 day EMA on Wednesday2014-10-23 17:11:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and bounced off this EMA today and moved to new highs2014-10-23 17:11:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this then suggests that we're going to see a continuation of money moving back into this basket of stocks2014-10-23 17:11:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the likely result of getting the 19 day EMA to cross back above this slower moving 39 day EMA2014-10-23 17:12:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this will happen when....?2014-10-23 17:12:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anybody?2014-10-23 17:12:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yes, when the MCSUM moves back above its zero line2014-10-23 17:12:34 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: Zero line2014-10-23 17:12:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there you go2014-10-23 17:12:43 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: McSum2014-10-23 17:12:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and with the MCSUM at -4912014-10-23 17:13:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you KNOW that there is still quite a bit of distance still yet to be traveled before something like this can actually takes place2014-10-23 17:13:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so you take your time2014-10-23 17:13:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and monitor the improvements as things move along2014-10-23 17:13:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: probability and outcome2014-10-23 17:13:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that's all this is2014-10-23 17:14:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: moving to the SML breadth MCO2014-10-23 17:14:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and here we also failed to move to higher highs2014-10-23 17:14:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but like we talked about last Thursday2014-10-23 17:14:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the structure of this MCO from its bottom continues to show a series of bottom above bottoms2014-10-23 17:14:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this then tells us that the buyers have control of the action short term (4-6 weeks)2014-10-23 17:15:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: though with the SML breadth MCSUM still a ways from seeing its zero line2014-10-23 17:15:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: prices are not likely to just zoom higher from here2014-10-23 17:15:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: when the MCO is one side of the zero line2014-10-23 17:15:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the MCSUM is on the other2014-10-23 17:15:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the only thing that prices can do is....2014-10-23 17:15:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: chop2014-10-23 17:16:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and with the high extremes we're seeing in the MCO's 2014-10-23 17:16:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this chop will likely be volatile in its content2014-10-23 17:16:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: until there is we see this oscillator move in and around its zero line2014-10-23 17:17:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: sort of like a watching a earthquake on a seismograph2014-10-23 17:18:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it will move violently when there is the greatest amount of energy being applied2014-10-23 17:18:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but will eventually calm down once anything that was thrown out of place resets itself and settles2014-10-23 17:19:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for now2014-10-23 17:19:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you can see by the distance between the individual postings in the SML breadth MCSUM that there is a ton of money moving back into this basket of stocks2014-10-23 17:19:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and as long as this continues2014-10-23 17:19:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: prices will continue to firm2014-10-23 17:20:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and any bids that are withdrawn will tend to be for a short duration2014-10-23 17:20:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: maybe hours2014-10-23 17:20:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: case in point2014-10-23 17:20:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Wednesday2014-10-23 17:20:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: AFTER the initial rally2014-10-23 17:20:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: lots of folks got confused by the close on Wednesday2014-10-23 17:20:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that we should had seen downside follow through today2014-10-23 17:21:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but knowing the underlying strength in which money was moving into the market2014-10-23 17:21:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the likelihood of seeing a down open was pretty low2014-10-23 17:21:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you see this a lot on CNBC, for example2014-10-23 17:21:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: then again2014-10-23 17:22:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: they have no idea what they're doing anyway2014-10-23 17:22:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as a lot of their "opinions" and "interviews" are what the producers whisper in their ear pieces2014-10-23 17:23:15 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: A POOR replacement of FNN...2014-10-23 17:23:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: ahhh...the good old days2014-10-23 17:23:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but remember2014-10-23 17:23:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: FNN was a poor replacement for KWHY2014-10-23 17:24:06 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: Bollinger for lunch-priceless2014-10-23 17:24:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for those who don't know what we're talking about2014-10-23 17:24:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: back in the 1970's in Los Angeles2014-10-23 17:24:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there was a business channel, KWHY2014-10-23 17:25:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the great thing about KWHY is that all of the big names in modern technical analysis had 15 minute shows and interviews on what they did and what they thought about the markets2014-10-23 17:26:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: much of which...modern TA had it's renaissance in Los Angeles2014-10-23 17:26:07 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: What a learning curve that must have been2014-10-23 17:26:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it was2014-10-23 17:26:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you had Sherman McClellan2014-10-23 17:26:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you had Peter Eliades2014-10-23 17:26:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you had Peter Harlan2014-10-23 17:27:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you had these super stars 2014-10-23 17:27:15 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: oh yea2014-10-23 17:27:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and you just were in awe in what they were sharing with the public2014-10-23 17:27:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for, or course, shameless promotions since many were brokers2014-10-23 17:27:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Richard Ney...Larry Katz2014-10-23 17:27:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: just an amazing amount of power houses2014-10-23 17:27:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anyway2014-10-23 17:27:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in the mid 80's2014-10-23 17:28:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there was a new kid in town, FNN2014-10-23 17:28:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Financial News Network2014-10-23 17:28:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now...rarely did anyone watch this channel2014-10-23 17:28:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but over time people like John Bollinger2014-10-23 17:28:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and others began to receive larger and larger exposure2014-10-23 17:29:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and slowly FNN made it's mark2014-10-23 17:29:22 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: yep2014-10-23 17:29:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you had Bill Griffith as the main anchor2014-10-23 17:29:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and gee...who else?2014-10-23 17:29:43 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: He's still around2014-10-23 17:29:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anyway...long story short2014-10-23 17:29:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: FNN was eventually bought by GE2014-10-23 17:30:02 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: Oh NO2014-10-23 17:30:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and FNN eventually became...2014-10-23 17:30:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: CNBC2014-10-23 17:30:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that's how it all started2014-10-23 17:30:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: back in the day2014-10-23 17:30:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: when the Dow was up or down 10 points that was a BIG day!2014-10-23 17:30:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: volume?2014-10-23 17:30:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: oh...25 million was huge!2014-10-23 17:31:02 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: sure2014-10-23 17:31:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: lots have changed since then2014-10-23 17:31:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Trade Levels came out of KWHY2014-10-23 17:31:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Investors Business Daily was a creation by Bill O'Neill who used to be on KWHY2014-10-23 17:32:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: LA was where it was at in the 60's and 70's for TA2014-10-23 17:32:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I was fortunate to be there2014-10-23 17:32:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and if I remember correctly2014-10-23 17:32:32 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: nice2014-10-23 17:32:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: KWHY was also simulcast into the Chicago market in those days2014-10-23 17:32:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: to this day2014-10-23 17:32:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what I miss the most2014-10-23 17:33:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is that they used "clacker board" to change the numbers2014-10-23 17:33:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the tape...ran across the screen at the bottom...a first for TV2014-10-23 17:33:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anyway...those were the days2014-10-23 17:33:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let's move on...I'll get to everything2014-10-23 17:34:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the TM breadth MCO also showed a lower high today2014-10-23 17:34:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and with the 5% component now completing a zero line snapback2014-10-23 17:34:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's likely that we'll have another day or two of rest coming before we see another attempt to move higher2014-10-23 17:35:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...2014-10-23 17:35:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: just like on Tuesday2014-10-23 17:35:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the ball remains in the bull's court2014-10-23 17:35:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as they still have quite a bit still yet to do before prices can actually trend higher2014-10-23 17:35:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for now...2014-10-23 17:35:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we're in a period of construction2014-10-23 17:36:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: of which the keystone has been laid2014-10-23 17:36:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and now the re-bar is being put into place2014-10-23 17:36:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: next we get the concrete2014-10-23 17:36:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and hopefully the "county" will approve the foundation and we can begin to build :)2014-10-23 17:37:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: also of note2014-10-23 17:37:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the patient here is still not feeling very well2014-10-23 17:37:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the worse part of the illness has passed 2014-10-23 17:38:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we have recovered back before the illness took its toll on the price chart2014-10-23 17:38:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's like nothing happened :)2014-10-23 17:38:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: moving to the sectors, and we see that we had a nice breadth thrust as well with the XLY breadth MCO2014-10-23 17:38:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but notice that there is very little texture here on the swing2014-10-23 17:39:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this would then tell us that though the buyers have control2014-10-23 17:39:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's not that strong2014-10-23 17:39:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this is where you can assume that most of this same buying is that of short covering2014-10-23 17:40:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: money that isn't new and fresh...money that is being "laundered"2014-10-23 17:40:43 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: amzn may hit that tomorrow..2014-10-23 17:41:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: how were the earnings?2014-10-23 17:41:15 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: not sure, but it got hit hard2014-10-23 17:41:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not worried with them2014-10-23 17:41:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: they have rolled out so much product of late2014-10-23 17:41:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that losses are to be expected2014-10-23 17:41:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but remember2014-10-23 17:41:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as I shared over the last couple of weeks2014-10-23 17:42:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the holiday season is not likely to be a good one for brick and mortar retail2014-10-23 17:42:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but something like AMZN should do OK...2014-10-23 17:42:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: no rent to pay2014-10-23 17:42:56 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: the daily on AMZN doesn't look fresh to me, the weekly looks worse2014-10-23 17:43:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so their overhead is far better2014-10-23 17:43:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let me look - one sec2014-10-23 17:43:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: hasn't had a good year, has it?2014-10-23 17:44:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you have puts?2014-10-23 17:44:27 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: one "longshot" for tomorrow is all2014-10-23 17:44:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you have an open position now?2014-10-23 17:44:40 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: 50 bucks2014-10-23 17:44:44 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: yes2014-10-23 17:44:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: AMZN is down 33 after hours2014-10-23 17:44:54 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: yep2014-10-23 17:44:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: :)2014-10-23 17:44:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: down 10%2014-10-23 17:45:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: SELL!2014-10-23 17:45:02 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: :)2014-10-23 17:45:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you can use those proceeds for your park on the island2014-10-23 17:45:24 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: LOL2014-10-23 17:45:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: :)2014-10-23 17:45:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anyway2014-10-23 17:46:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLP gives us a good example of how prices tend to fare based on underlying money flow2014-10-23 17:46:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: where in the last sector the XLY breadth MCSUM is around the -500 level 2014-10-23 17:46:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: prices are not able to be as buoyant at their last high point2014-10-23 17:47:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but with the XLP breadth MCSUM above its zero line2014-10-23 17:47:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: prices can maintain this same buoyancy2014-10-23 17:47:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now...with that said2014-10-23 17:47:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we have to be on guard here for a possible MCSUM Summation Failure pattern in the XLP2014-10-23 17:47:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: where any failure to move back above the +250 level2014-10-23 17:48:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: followed by a move back down and through the zero line would cause a "crash like" effect in prices as control moves from the buy side to the sell side2014-10-23 17:48:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and since those who invest in staples are pretty conservative folks2014-10-23 17:49:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: they would be characterized as those who be called the UNwilling sellers on any further pullback in prices2014-10-23 17:49:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so this is something to watch for2014-10-23 17:49:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLE has finally shown enough of short covering to where prices have stabilized2014-10-23 17:50:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but if we look at the components here2014-10-23 17:50:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we see that both remain below their zero line2014-10-23 17:50:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so this index remains "heavy" and vulnerable to an ambush2014-10-23 17:50:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: technically...a text book reflex rally2014-10-23 17:51:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that's about to run out of steam unless the "cavalry" shows up in a hurry 2014-10-23 17:51:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not enough to go long2014-10-23 17:52:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it may be a near term play on the short side2014-10-23 17:52:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for example2014-10-23 17:52:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if it gets into pattern resistance at the $88 level2014-10-23 17:52:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with no internal improvement2014-10-23 17:52:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: be my guest2014-10-23 17:52:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: remember2014-10-23 17:53:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that although the MCSUM on the XLE has turned up from its deeply "oversold" condition2014-10-23 17:53:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that doesn't mean that prices are finished moving lower2014-10-23 17:53:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let me get a longer term chart for a price target2014-10-23 17:53:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: $72?2014-10-23 17:54:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: boy...there's a whole lot of potential downside there2014-10-23 17:54:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: just keep it on your radar screen for now2014-10-23 17:54:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLF breadth MCSUM has now snapped back to its zero line2014-10-23 17:55:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the buyers really need to step up here2014-10-23 17:55:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or this sector is likely to lead to the downside on any short term pullback2014-10-23 17:55:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: why? you may ask?2014-10-23 17:56:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: because we haven't been able to take out the early September high point in the XLF breadth MCO with this reflex2014-10-23 17:56:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the price pattern is sloppy2014-10-23 17:56:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you have an island reversal2014-10-23 17:56:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and a breakaway gap working here2014-10-23 17:57:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and unless there's immediate follow through2014-10-23 17:57:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the break-a-way will be filled2014-10-23 17:57:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: leaving only the island formation as a support area2014-10-23 17:58:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the price action in the XLV remains quite strong here in spite of the current readings in the XLV breadth MCSUM (-270)2014-10-23 17:58:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: could be a defensive play2014-10-23 17:59:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: could be because of Open Enrollment in ACA2014-10-23 17:59:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but until we see the XLV breadth MCSUM move above its zero line2014-10-23 18:00:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's likely that we won't be able to see much more above the recent highs2014-10-23 18:00:21 [Message] PrincelyM -> Chat: futures sharply down2014-10-23 18:00:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLI data is looking better2014-10-23 18:00:25 [Message] PrincelyM -> Chat: Hi Dave2014-10-23 18:00:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not surprising2014-10-23 18:00:30 [Message] PrincelyM -> Chat: :)2014-10-23 18:00:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good evening Princely2014-10-23 18:00:59 [Message] PrincelyM -> Chat: What happened..some news looks like...2014-10-23 18:01:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: have you been having fun playing the swings?2014-10-23 18:01:14 [Message] PrincelyM -> Chat: Yes a lot2014-10-23 18:01:19 [Message] PrincelyM -> Chat: last few days2014-10-23 18:01:29 [Message] PrincelyM -> Chat: have been a traders dream2014-10-23 18:01:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: fair value on the Dow is -402014-10-23 18:01:45 [Message] PrincelyM -> Chat: Both Gold and ES2014-10-23 18:01:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so with the Dow down -672014-10-23 18:01:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the Dow is only down 272014-10-23 18:02:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there was a rumor though toward the close2014-10-23 18:02:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that they have an Ebola case in New York City2014-10-23 18:02:31 [Message] PrincelyM -> Chat: Yes2014-10-23 18:02:44 [Message] PrincelyM -> Chat: Must be some new news developing2014-10-23 18:02:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and since this was being used for the market to sell off earlier this month2014-10-23 18:02:49 [Message] PrincelyM -> Chat: on that same thing2014-10-23 18:03:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: any new information on the same subject is likely to cause the same reaction2014-10-23 18:04:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which reminds me2014-10-23 18:04:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I STRONGLY suggest to everyone that they do not update their Java to version 82014-10-23 18:05:03 [Message] PrincelyM -> Chat: I agree2014-10-23 18:05:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there seems to be too many problems accessing sites that support this platform besides this one2014-10-23 18:05:11 [Message] hawk5734 -> Chat: I second that!2014-10-23 18:05:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I had a run in this past weekend2014-10-23 18:05:33 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: Where do you guys get both future and fair values after hours?2014-10-23 18:05:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and they don't allow you to set your own security settings2014-10-23 18:05:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Mike...type in CNBC2014-10-23 18:06:41 [Message] PrincelyM -> Chat: I almost got shaken out of my gold shorts today2014-10-23 18:06:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: try this: http://www.CNBC.com/id/176899372014-10-23 18:06:47 [Message] PrincelyM -> Chat: on the Ebola news2014-10-23 18:06:54 [Message] PrincelyM -> Chat: I mean miners2014-10-23 18:06:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I got shaken out on Tuesday2014-10-23 18:06:59 [Message] PrincelyM -> Chat: they just took off2014-10-23 18:07:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: moved back in on Wednesday2014-10-23 18:07:04 [Message] PrincelyM -> Chat: :)2014-10-23 18:07:07 [Message] PrincelyM -> Chat: I did too2014-10-23 18:07:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it was just taking too long2014-10-23 18:07:11 [Message] PrincelyM -> Chat: entered back2014-10-23 18:07:14 [Message] PrincelyM -> Chat: same as you2014-10-23 18:07:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then...whoosh...the party started2014-10-23 18:07:20 [Message] PrincelyM -> Chat: yep2014-10-23 18:07:37 [Message] PrincelyM -> Chat: Are you playing the miners?2014-10-23 18:07:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then the dollar dumped late in the day today2014-10-23 18:07:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yes...2014-10-23 18:09:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let's finish up2014-10-23 18:10:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: wow...the XLB breadth MCO looks like it got to a +130 2014-10-23 18:10:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but nothing textural keeping it together2014-10-23 18:10:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but2014-10-23 18:10:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it could be a whisper that after any further pullback here in the metals might be the last one2014-10-23 18:11:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: XLK is looking firm here2014-10-23 18:11:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the XLK breadth MCSUM now back to its zero line2014-10-23 18:11:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: one side is about to take control2014-10-23 18:11:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: favoring a bullish resolution here is the earlier data from the NDX2014-10-23 18:12:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we'll watch this one for a challenge of its previous highs2014-10-23 18:12:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and new all time price highs now in the XLU2014-10-23 18:13:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this is still looking like the one to go to if you have to remain long here2014-10-23 18:13:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in fact2014-10-23 18:13:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: taking ruler to monitor here2014-10-23 18:14:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and connecting the tops from May and September in the XLU breadth MCSUM2014-10-23 18:14:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we broke above this resistance today2014-10-23 18:14:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: confirming the new all time price highs2014-10-23 18:14:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so strong buy there2014-10-23 18:14:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so....2014-10-23 18:14:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we continue to pick through the rubble from last weeks capitulation2014-10-23 18:14:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the defensive sectors still holding together nicely2014-10-23 18:15:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the Utilities sector leading to the upside2014-10-23 18:15:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in fact2014-10-23 18:15:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the Dow Jones Utilities is also at new all time highs now2014-10-23 18:16:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so any further strength in the Dow Industrials and Transports would put the Dow Theory folks on cruise control2014-10-23 18:16:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: keeping in mind that...2014-10-23 18:16:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there has never been the beginning of a bear market with the Utilities moving to higher highs and leading the Industrials and Transports2014-10-23 18:17:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: shhh...we'll keep this our secret ;)2014-10-23 18:17:24 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: good to know2014-10-23 18:17:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: STVO's are now close to "overbought"2014-10-23 18:18:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: VTO's are close to our expected snapback to their zero lines2014-10-23 18:18:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: getting close to exhaustion now for the reflex rally2014-10-23 18:18:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: NYSE TRIN at .952014-10-23 18:19:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 still "oversold" at 1.132014-10-23 18:19:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this will keep prices from coming apart short term2014-10-23 18:19:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: NASDAQ TRIN at .492014-10-23 18:19:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at 1.062014-10-23 18:19:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we're working off that 2.60 TRINQ from the 13th2014-10-23 18:20:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: TM TRIN at .612014-10-23 18:20:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at 1.082014-10-23 18:20:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so....2014-10-23 18:20:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: although the reflex rally is about to end2014-10-23 18:20:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there's been enough energy moving back into the market where any pause will tend to be absorbed on a short term basis2014-10-23 18:21:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with that said2014-10-23 18:21:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it wouldn't be surprising to see a little more of a move to the upside first before we actually see this exhaustion take place2014-10-23 18:21:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for those who played the bounce2014-10-23 18:22:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: keep your stops close at this stage2014-10-23 18:22:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as we'll remain choppy and highly volatile for a bit more time2014-10-23 18:22:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in fact2014-10-23 18:22:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we'll probably see this same kind of action for the majority of next week2014-10-23 18:22:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for those on the sidelines2014-10-23 18:23:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is a great time to follow through on your due diligence2014-10-23 18:23:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and begin the process of making a list of likely long candidates2014-10-23 18:23:37 [Message] hawk5734 -> Chat: FOMC next Wednesday at 2:00 ET2014-10-23 18:23:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and pick and choose your entry's2014-10-23 18:23:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: cool2014-10-23 18:23:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that will give the market a good excuse2014-10-23 18:23:59 [Message] hawk5734 -> Chat: yep2014-10-23 18:24:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: to do whatever it's likely to do! :)2014-10-23 18:24:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for us2014-10-23 18:24:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we know that it will remain choppy for a bit more time2014-10-23 18:24:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that any news event is likely to be a driver2014-10-23 18:25:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the important stuff is the A/D charts this weekend2014-10-23 18:25:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if they're making higher highs2014-10-23 18:25:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let the market go about its business of shaking the tree of the weak hands2014-10-23 18:25:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: believe me2014-10-23 18:25:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with such a deep retracement2014-10-23 18:25:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: any hard down move over the next week or so will be accompanied by high degree of negative sentiment2014-10-23 18:26:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: "here we go"2014-10-23 18:26:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: "the crash is beginning"2014-10-23 18:26:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: "the top is in"2014-10-23 18:26:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: "I told you so"2014-10-23 18:26:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the more we get of this2014-10-23 18:26:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the higher the odds that a very important bottom is being "hammered" out2014-10-23 18:26:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and once the work is done...2014-10-23 18:27:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: then we can move on our merry way to new highs2014-10-23 18:27:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anything else?2014-10-23 18:27:25 [Message] hawk5734 -> Chat: thank you again Fib2014-10-23 18:27:31 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: Much to absorb 2014-10-23 18:28:12 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: Some of the best since I've been around2014-10-23 18:28:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: thank you2014-10-23 18:28:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but remember2014-10-23 18:28:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the market is being very accommodative lately2014-10-23 18:28:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and sharing a lot of information2014-10-23 18:28:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that makes for good reading and analysis2014-10-23 18:29:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...I'm going to go home and have some dinner2014-10-23 18:29:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: everyone have a great weekend2014-10-23 18:29:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we'll do this all again on Tuesday2014-10-23 18:29:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good night2014-10-23 18:29:49 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: Good night all and thanks for sharing__________________Dave's LinkedIn Profile

"As for it being different this time, it is different every time. The question is in what way, and to what extent" - Tom McClellan

"An economist is someone who sees something happen, and then wonders if it would work in theory" - Ronald Reagan

"What we see depends mainly on what we look for" - John Lubbock

"The eye sees only what the mind is ready to comprehend" - Henri Bergson

“Answers are easy; it’s asking the right questions which is hard” - Dr. Who - 1977

"You know the very powerful and the very stupid have one thing in common - they don't alter their views to fit the facts, they alter the facts to fit their views (which can be uncomfortable if you happen to be one of the facts that needs altering)" - Dr. Who - 1977

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