Noem: Canceled fiscal cliff vote isn't fatal for Boehner

Dec. 23, 2012

Kristi Noem

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John Boehner

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The failure of House speaker John Boehner’s “Plan B” tax proposal last week makes a deal on the “fiscal cliff” more difficult, Rep. Kristi Noem said.

Noem was in the U.S. Capitol on Thursday as Boehner and other House Republican leaders tried frantically to secure GOP votes for Boehner’s plan, which would have extended expiring tax cuts for everyone earning less than $1 million per year.

But by Thursday evening, Boehner gave up and canceled the vote. The votes weren’t there.

“I was surprised,” Noem said. “I assumed that they were close to having the votes that they needed.”

Noem wouldn’t say whether she would have voted for Plan B. When vote-counters, called whips, surveyed her earlier Thursday, Noem said she told them she was undecided.

“It was something I was taking a hard look at,” Noem said.

Her preferred policy is one that extended all the expiring tax cuts, as House Republicans have previously voted to do. President Obama and Democrats, including Sen. Tim Johnson, have insisted that taxes on the wealthiest Americans go up to pay down part of the deficit.

But Noem talked about the intended purpose of Boehner’s plan in personal terms.

“In light of the fact that the Senate and the president haven’t offered a proposal, we were trying to protect as many people as we could by putting something else on the floor that people could consider,” she said.

The defeat might weaken Boehner, who’s been speaker since Republicans took over the House in January 2011.

His retreat on the tax measure is considered a blow to the clout of the 22-year House veteran known for an amiable style, a willingness to make deals and a perpetual tan.

“It’s very hard for him to negotiate now,” said Sarah Binder, a George Washington University political scientist, adding that it’s premature to judge whether Boehner’s hold on the speakership is in peril. “No one can trust him because it’s very hard for him to produce votes.”

Noem predicted that Boehner’s job is safe.

“I don’t believe his leadership is (in jeopardy), but I know he was very disappointed,” said Noem, who served with Boehner on the House leadership team the past two years.

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Retired South Dakota State University political science professor Bob Burns said Boehner’s decision to schedule a vote on Plan B and then cancel the vote was surprising.

“It’s like how a lawyer doesn’t ask a question unless he knows what the answer’s going to be,” Burns said. “It’s very unusual for a speaker to sponsor and push legislation in the House without being sure that he’s got the votes for passage. He pulled it not because of the Democrats not supporting it, but because he didn’t have enough Republican votes.”

No Democrats supported Plan B, which was intended as a Republican alternative in the high-stakes negotiations over the fiscal cliff.

Noem put a positive spin on the GOP disagreement, saying Republicans are unified against raising taxes and simply disagree on tactics — whether it was best to concede some tax increases in order to prevent them on other people.

“What I saw was people that wanted to fight to make sure all the tax rates were extended,” she said. “The ones who were supporting the bill honestly just believed this was the best-case scenario. ... It was just based on, ‘What can we do to protect as many people in America as we can?’ ”

But after being unable to round up enough votes to pass his personal plan, some political observers speculated whether Boehner could win the upcoming vote Jan. 3 for another term as speaker.

A GOP effort to depose Boehner would have to occur internally before the full House votes so Republicans — with 234 seats — elect one of their own as speaker.

Possible candidates in the House to replace Boehner, according to GOP lawmakers and aides, include Majority Leader Eric Cantor of Virginia, third-ranking Republican Kevin McCarthy of California, GOP vice presidential nominee Paul Ryan, R-Wis., and Tom Price of Georgia.

Cantor was at Boehner’s side Friday as both men met with reporters. Cantor, McCarthy and Ryan lobbied colleagues for Boehner’s tax-cut bill, giving Republicans angry over the measure little reason to turn to them as alternatives.

Noem said she hasn’t heard of any challenge to Boehner in the aftermath of the canceled vote.

“I’m not getting that sense at all,” she said.

With Boehner’s effort to pass an alternate plan failing Thursday, Noem said the initiative shifts to Obama and Senate Democrats.

“They would need to take some action for us to have anything to do out there,” Noem said of the Senate.

After the canceled vote, the House went into recess. Noem is back home in South Dakota, and said she’s waiting for leadership to call House members back. No date has been set for representatives to reconvene, with Cantor telling Republicans they would try to give 48 hours’ notice.

The Senate plans to come back Thursday, and Noem said she expects to be back then as well.

“I’m guessing we would come in around that same time and be ready and willing to make an agreement if there’s one to be had,” she said.