Coming Soon: Congressional Election Forecasts

With all the forecasts of the presidential election—e.g., here, here, here, and here—we wanted to add a little value here at The Monkey Cage by focusing on congressional elections. We’ll begin with a forecast of the seat breakdown in the House and then explore such corollaries as the effect of low congressional approval and the recent redistricting. Spearheading this is political scientist Eric McGhee of the Public Policy Institute of California, with a little assistance from Benjamin Highton of UC-Davis and me. Eric was also integral to our post-election blogging in 2010—much of which is summarized in the post-mortem we wrote with Brendan Nyhan—and he’ll have the byline on this year’s posts. We’re grateful to both Ben and Eric for their help.