A Quantitative Risk Analysis Model of Scenarios Characterised by Explosion Fragments and Missiles

Abstract

The Directive 96/82/EC on the control of major accidents, known as “Seveso-II”, led to important innovations in the safety requirements of process plants. Some aspects have great scientific and technological implications: e.g. the “domino effect”. Concerning the Domino Effect, in this paper, a model for the prediction of the projection of fragments following explosions in pipes and vessel has been developed, it permits the prediction of the number and initial speed of projectile fragments. The model has been validated through comparison with an incident that happened in 1993 in a Sicilian refinery.