“Squeezing the Kurds too much could turn an armed standoff into an all-out ethnic conflict between two U.S.-armed forces. Given these developments, the only sensible way forward is for Baghdad and Irbil to make negotiations a priority.

“In the post-IS era old wounds threaten to resurface. Especially after IS, the Iraqi society became especially militarised. Everybody carries a weapon now. The risk of future conflicts being managed in a more violent way is much higher.”

Even a complete military victory over the Sunni extremists in Mosul will not change the reality that there is still no political agreement in place, or even basic trust, that could reconcile Iraq’s Sunni Arab minority with the Shiite-dominated national government.