Kashmir

Muted applause

INDIA'S unilateral ceasefire in Kashmir, already twice renewed, was beginning to acquire the weary aura of serial Hollywood marriages. In announcing a third extension on February 22nd the prime minister, Atal Behari Vajpayee, spiced it up, extending it by three months rather than just one. That should give diplomacy more time to work. At the same time, he gave warning that militant groups flagrantly disregarding the ceasefire would not be spared.

The peace initiative needs a new twist. It began promisingly in November, with India suspending offensive operations against militants fighting its rule of the mainly Muslim state. Pakistan in turn withdrew troops from the line of control, the unofficial border between the zones run by the rival countries.

Violence subsided appreciably. In the past couple of months, though, it has mounted again, while diplomacy has stalled. Attacks on Indians, in and out of uniform, by pro-Pakistan guerrillas have not abated. They were widely blamed for the killing of 15 civilians, including seven children, on February 10th. To Kashmiris, India's ceasefire is beginning to appear a mere abstraction. When protesters demonstrated on February 15th against the killing of a suspected militant, said to be in police custody, India's army opened fire, killing five of them.

The incident prompted curfews, more protests and more killings. By extending the ceasefire, this time with explicit backing from most political parties, India is playing to two galleries: international opinion, which has applauded it, and moderate members of the separatist All-Party Hurriyat Conference, whom India sees as the likeliest partners for peace on terms it can accept. Another less amenable audience is Pakistan, which has helped to keep peace along the line of control.

As the past few months have shown, not much more can happen without further co-operation from Pakistan and from some militant groups it influences, if not controls. The main idea for getting that was to let a Hurriyat team visit Pakistan. That was supposed to happen in mid-January, but India has so far failed to issue passports to all five members of the delegation. Its fear is that the visit will become an occasion for bashing India and promoting Pakistan's claim to Kashmir.

India is particularly concerned about the role of Syed Ali Shah Geelani, a pro-Pakistan hardliner who regards the Kashmiri cause more as a religious jihad than a political one. Hurriyat moderates also are keen to keep him in check. India has not yet decided that the Hurriyat is tame enough to go, nor has it managed to initiate talks without the trip.

The Indian government thinks the ceasefire alone should have reduced export of violence from Pakistan. General Pervez Musharraf, Pakistan's military ruler, has hinted at a willingness to curb radicalism. If peace is to progress, one side or the other will have to make more than a gesture.