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Thursday, May 31, 2012

Skies are partly cloudy as sunset approaches this evening. We've definitely had more clouds trying to develop today, but there was enough sunshine to heat up this mid-summer air mass to 93.4F (34.1C), between 2:30 and 3:00pm. That's yet another new high for the year, and the warmest I've recorded at my location at the top of McLeod Ganj in the past three years at least. Actually, according to the Dharamsala climatological tables, temperatures down there are near record highs for the past 10 years! Will post more on that as the data comes in.

You might be able to tell from the changing sky this evening that we've got some atmospheric adjustments in progress. After this stretch of stable conditions with high pressure firmly in control in the upper-levels, we've got a slightly more disturbed scenario developing. Cooler temperatures aloft will be gliding southeastward across northern India starting tonight, which will increase our instability and give us a chance of a couple of showers and thunderstorms developing. Right now, the potential for significant rainfall looks rather slim, but we may get enough action to lower these very warm temps and settle the dust -- if we're lucky.

I have a feeling that we may have just experienced the warmest weather of the season -- and although temperatures should remain above normal for the first several days of June, it will at least be a bit "less hot" than it's been during the past couple of days. Goodbye, May 2012... warmer and drier than usual!

THURSDAY NIGHT:

partly cloudy and warm. a couple of showers and thunderstorms developing?

low: 23C (74F)

FRIDAY:

a mix of clouds and sun. not so hot, with one or two thunderstorms possible.

high: 32C (89F)

FRIDAY NIGHT:

perhaps a thundershower in the area... otherwise partly cloudy and pleasantly warm.

Hazy summer sun is dominating the sky again on this Thursday morning. My overnight low temp here below the mountaineering center in the upper part of town was 77.7F (25.4C). Without digging through all of my personal records from 2002, I can still say I'm fairly certain this is close to the warmest, if not THE warmest low temp I have ever recorded here.

Yesterday's high of 91.0F (32.8C), according to my records, is the warmest of the past three years at least. It's a rare and normally short-lived event that we experience this category of heat up here above 1800m/6000ft. Today could be even hotter, depending on what will be happening in the upper-atmosphere as the day wears on. We're watching a rather disorganized disturbance drift in from the west-northwest, which features some gradually cooler temperatures in the upper atmosphere. It's likely that some pockets of instability will develop -- possibly as early as this evening -- leading to the risk of some isolated or widely scattered showers and thunderstorms. The prospect of significant rainfall doesn't look promising, but the atmosphere could get stirred up enough to get something going... right through Saturday.

Any shower/thunder activity will allow the cooler air aloft to be brought down to the surface, so right now I am optimistically trimming our temperatures by a few degrees starting tomorrow. Don't expect any major cooling trend, though, as it looks like we'll remain very close to the peak of summer warmth into next week...

THURSDAY:

HOT... with a mix of hazy sun and a few clouds. some late PM thunder?

high: 34C (93F)

THURSDAY NIGHT:

risk of a shower or thunderstorm in the area. otherwise partly cloudy and warm.

low: 23C (74F)

FRIDAY (arrival of June):

a mix of sunshine and clouds. not so hot, with a thunderstorm possible.

high: 32C (89F)

SATURDAY:

still a chance of a shower or thunderstorm in the area, otherwise partly cloudy and warm.

Wednesday, May 30, 2012

From my vantage point, it looks like we have clear skies across the area this evening, apart from the thin haze. There was very little if any cloud development over the mountains today, which allowed the hazy sunshine to blast upon us and boost the high temp at my location in the upper part of town to 91.0F (32.8C). That's not only the warmest temperature of this year, but of 2010 and 2011 as well. Of course local temps vary considerably across the area, but proportionally speaking, it's safe to say that today was the warmest day of the past three years!

Unhindered sun and a huge bubble of very warm air in the middle and upper parts of the atmosphere brought sizzling hot weather to the plains of north India as well... it seems we're not alone as we partake of the peak of the peak of the summer season. There are some changes starting to appear, however. A series of weak upper-level disturbances which contain some slightly colder air aloft will begin to affect us as early as late tomorrow. Isolated to widely scattered thundershowers may develop as we near the weekend, offering the hope of a little moisture and a bit of a drop in temperatures.

As has been the case for the past few weeks, significant rainfall is going to be hard to come by, but it now looks like our best chance might be from late Thursday night through Saturday evening. A little rain will bring the cooler air aloft down to the surface, which I think would be welcome indeed.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT:

clear skies. uncomfortably warm.

low: 24C (76F)

THURSDAY:

hazy sun and a few clouds. still near the warmest of the year.

high: 33C (91F)

THURSDAY NIGHT:

partly cloudy. chance of a thunderstorm developing.

low: 23C (74F)

FRIDAY (1st of JUNE):

a mix of sun and clouds. not so hot, with a shower or thunderstorm possible.

high: 31C (88F)

SATURDAY:

a couple of showers or thunderstorms in the area? otherwise partly cloudy and warm.

A warm and bright morning is underway with sunshine, some light haze, and balmy summertime temps. My overnight low here on Tushita Road just below the mountaineering center was 74.3F (23.5C) -- the new "warmest low" of the season.

Current forecast trends appear to be on track, with hazy sun, just a few clouds here and there, and peak temperatures of our summer season expected for the next few days. There are indications that we could see a couple of minor, weak disturbances drift through the area in the upper-flow over the weekend, providing us with a slightly better chance of a random shower or thunderstorm. Maybe that prospect is actually good news, considering we're likely to end the month of May well below normal in terms of rainfall. Anyway, it looks like the best window of opportunity for a thundershower would be between late Friday and Sunday.

Our overnight low temps keep rising... our afternoon high temps keep rising... but it appears that the heat may be peaking either tomorrow or Friday, before the arrival of those weak disturbances over the weekend. We may cool off just a few degrees as we progress through the first week of June, but at this point, don't expect the cooling to be very dramatic...

WEDNESDAY:

hazy sunshine... even warmer.

high: 32C (90F)

WEDNESDAY NIGHT:

mostly clear... unusually warm.

low: 24C (76F)

THURSDAY:

hazy sun and a few clouds. peak temps of the year?

high: 33C (91F)

FRIDAY (1st of JUNE):

a mix of sun, haze and occasional clouds. some PM thunder?

morning low: 24C (76F)

daytime high: 32C (90F)

SATURDAY:

partly cloudy with an isolated thunderstorm possible.

morning low: 23C (74F)

daytime high: 32C (89F)

SUNDAY:

a mix of sun and clouds. not quite as warm, with a risk of a thunderstorm.

Tuesday, May 29, 2012

Hazy sunshine dominates the early evening sky... after a very warm day with only a few scattered clouds. My high temperature reached 87.6F (30.9C), which was within 2F/1C of the warmest reading of this summer season.

Six of the past seven days have been above 85F (29C), and it looks like we'll have no problem remaining in that range for the next several days at least. A gigantic, sprawling bubble of high pressure in the upper atmosphere covers nearly all of the Indian subcontinent, featuring warm air from the surface into the higher levels. This is keeping the air mass relatively stable... but also providing the warmest temperatures of the season across a wide area. It is miserably hot down on the plains these days... so we're lucky to have the situation tempered considerably by our 6000ft/1800m elevation.

Rain chances during the coming days should be restricted to the odd development of a brief thundershower over the mountains mainly during the afternoon/evening hours... especially by Saturday. Otherwise, it looks like we had better get used to this rather stagnant, hazy, very warm summer pattern until further notice...

TUESDAY NIGHT:

mostly clear skies. warmest night of the year.

low: 24C (75F)

WEDNESDAY:

hazy sun, along with just a few mountain clouds. very warm.

high: 32C (90F)

WEDNESDAY NIGHT:

mostly clear... another warm night.

low: 24C (76F)

THURSDAY:

peak temps of the year? hot, hazy sunshine.

high: 33C (91F)

FRIDAY (1st of June):

a mix of sun, haze, and a few clouds. still very warm.

morning low: 24C (76F)

daytime high: 32C (90F)

SATURDAY:

partly cloudy and still very warm. risk of a PM thunderstorm.

morning low: 24C (75F)

daytime high: 32C (89F)

SUNDAY:

sun and occasional clouds with an isolated PM thundershower possible. not quite as warm.

It's sunny with some light haze early on this Tuesday morning. My overnight low of 73.6F (23.1C) is the warmest low temp I have recorded this year. I actually had my fan turned on last night for the first time since late May of 2010!

All of the weather charts have the distinct look of summer on them. Features from the surface into the middle and upper-levels of the atmosphere are quite characteristic of this late May/early June period, which nearly always turns out to be the very peak of our warm season. The only thing to be concerned about is the potential for very random pools of lingering colder air aloft to interact with the intense daytime heating at the surface -- leading to the development of a random thundershower somewhere over the mountains. Other than that, hazy sunshine should be the dominant factor right into the end of the week.

Our high temp for the year thus far -- 89.4F (31.9C), which occurred last Friday -- is in serious jeopardy, especially between Wednesday and Friday. My forecast high temps could end up being slightly conservative if this heatwave building on the northern plains of India really pans out...

TUESDAY:

warmer, with hazy sunshine and a few clouds. isolated PM mountain thunder?

Monday, May 28, 2012

We have a mix of haze, sunshine, and scattered clouds in the area this evening. I recorded a high temp of 85.6F (29.8C) just before 3:00pm, and there has been no rainfall again today.

There was indeed a pocket or two of colder air lingering in the upper-atmosphere today, which has led to some cloud development off and on. Still, it appears that the instability has remained below the threshold necessary for the development of any thundershower action. As we progress through the week, warmer air arriving aloft should keep things generally stable, and that means the chance of significant rainfall should stay rather low. However, the steep angle of the sun will continue to be counterbalanced by thick haze at times, along with a few clouds here and there. Until we get some decent rain, we get to share this haze, dust and pollution with our neighbors to the south.

Pleasantly warm temperatures of the last couple of days will have a great potential to become less pleasant, as our gradual warm-up continues. The upcoming May/June transition should feature the warmest temps of the year -- actually running a bit above normal for this, the height of the summer season.

The sun is shining through a layer of haze and dust early this morning... and we also have just a few scattered clouds in the area. My overnight low temp has been warm -- 72.3F (22.4C) here in the upper part of town. There has been no rainfall overnight, nor since Saturday morning, leaving us with a May total of just 1.01" (2.5cm) thus far.

Upper-level data this morning is showing some lingering pools of colder air aloft over the western Himalayan region... which could be a concern for some developing cloudiness and perhaps a random thundershower somewhere over the mountains today. But other than that, warmer air will continue to stream into northern India from the surface into the mid- and upper-levels of the atmosphere as the week goes on. This scenario should provide generally stable conditions and keep us under the influence of the strong end-of-May sun. It also looks like this haze and dust will remain trapped... at least until we can muster up a good rain to clean thing up.

Computer models are showing temperatures going nowhere but UP this week. We rarely get a string of 90F/32C days here in McLeod, but that may just happen between now and Friday. Unless we get lucky and receive an unexpected rainfall, overnight temperatures will be on the rise as well, making for some uncomfortable sleeping weather...