How are the doomsayers going to explain this one? High street spending grew last month at the fastest pace in three years. Summer sales, warm weather and the school holidays were cited as strong reasons for shoppers to set aside their worries and join the throng at Meadowhall, Bluewater and the Metro Centre.

Could consumers be throwing off the heavy yoke that has hung over them since the financial crisis and was given added weight by George Osborne when he took the economic reins and screamed austerity? It looks that way from the last two months' figures.

Over in the US it is a different story. Since May almost all the main indicators of consumption and investment have stalled or gone into steep decline.

Tomorrow, Fed chief Ben Bernanke is likely to give one of his "watch this space" speeches when there is a mountain of data telling him to carry on with the fight to defeat the recession. The economists who predicted the financial crisis, including Dr Doom, Nouriel Roubini, spend most days up-rating the likelihood of a double dip.

Despite the best efforts of ministers and central bankers, the same story is playing out in Ireland and Spain. Taxes are down, unemployment is up and consumers are too frightened to spend.

There is one common thread that runs through these crippled economies, and it relates to property. While the UK suffered the after-effects of a massive house price bubble, it avoided the triple whammy the US, Ireland and Spain went through. Not only did they allow house prices to rip, but also fostered a massive building boom and widespread fraudulent buying and lending. Now they are left with hundreds of thousands of empty homes that depress prices and rob consumers of the springboard for spending – property wealth. There are obvious long-term benefits with lower house prices, especially for the young, but in the short term the situation only adds to economic woes.

Ireland's bank rescue was forced to extend its reach to rescuing property developers. In the US more than 50 local and regional banks have gone bust along with Lehman Brothers. Spain is still busy bailing out regional banks and considering, like the Irish, knocking down many of the most ludicrous housing developments.

Should this comparison make us feel safer? Not really. Much of our feelgood factor (or the factor that makes lots of people feel OK enough to carry on shopping) is supported by policies put in place by Labour that are rapidly being dismantled by the coalition.

Also, we have strong links to Ireland, Spain and the US. They buy lots of our exports and are likely to put a drag on our growth. Then there are George Osborne's cuts and tax rises next year and every year until 2015 that risk undermining confidence further.

We are unlikely to have a property price crash. Better lending regulations and the Nimbys who lobbied councils and government to prevent housebuilders putting up homes in greater numbers saw to that. But we will have higher unemployment, miserable pay rises and lower growth than we should expect.