International Journal of Engineering, Science and Technology

Scenario analysis of sustainable development of the world largest alluvial island with high urbanization rate: the socioeconomic development and environment protection

X Ni, J Lu, FQ Gao, L Lan, CL Pan, YQ Wu

Abstract

In this study, scenario analysis of the social development and environmental protection of Chongming Island, Shanghai, China, was performed to discuss the sustainable development of this special area. In this way, various system components including society, economy, ecology, environment and water resources system were all incorporated into this model framework for holistic consideration and optimization. According to the model output, the urbanization and environmental protection in Chongming Island will become more and more serious in 2020. Scenario 2 is obviously more preferable though its ecological goal is not the most satisfactory. Overall, Scenario 2 is finally deemed to be the most desirable plan. This study suggests that the Multi-objective Water Resource Carrying Capacity (MWRCC) model is a powerful decision tool for sustainable development assessment in region scale.