Global stocks, oil and the dollar eased overnight with traders taking a cautious stance before Italy's referendum and U.S. payrolls data later in the day, which will likely cement the case for a Fed rate hike.

Economists expect 175,000 jobs to be added, up from 161,000 in October, and see the unemployment rate remaining at 4.9%.

Gold is up 0.3% to $1172/ounce and the 10-year Treasury yield is flat at 2.43%.

The 10-year Treasury yield is up another seven basis points to 2.46%, and bank investors continue to wrap their arms around the idea that real regulatory loosening is on the way. The XLF is higher by 1.7% vs. the S&P 500 being flat. KBE+2.15%, KRE+2%.

The greatly-anticipated OPEC meeting starts tomorrow, but whether a deal will be finalized to cut production remains up in the air. Oil gained yesterday in a volatile session, but has given back that advance this morning. It's currently lower by 2% to $46.11 per barrel.

Asia was down modestly overnight, Europe is flat at midday, and U.S. stock inde futures are ahead by about 0.15% across the board.

The 10-year Treasury yield is up 1.4 basis points to 2.329%, and gold is down 0.4% to $1,189 per ounce.

A bit of political instability could be shaking markets this morning as the Clinton campaign has resurfaced in the U.S. to throw its weight behind recount efforts in three states, and investors look ahead to a key referendum in Italy next weekend.

U.S. stock index futures are down 0.35% across the board, and Italy's (NYSEARCA:EWI) 1.4% decline is leading Europe lower.

U.S. stock futures are higher ahead of what is likely to be the lightest trading volume day of the year as the NYSE closes at 1:00 p.m. Dow +0.3%; S&P 500 +0.2%; Nasdaq +0.2%.

Equities are set to open at new highs in what has historically been an up day for the market, especially for retail as Black Friday typically helps put the stores in a profitable position for the year.

Oil prices are down 1.2% at $47.39/bbl, while the 10-year Treasury yield is flat at 2.36%.

Societe Generale Cross Asset Research is talking Black Swans with the Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq all at or just off record highs.

A chart from the research firm assigns a risk percentage to various scenarios -- including political uncertainty (30%), sharp increase in bond yields (25%), a China hard landing (20%) and isolationism/trade wars (15%).

The list from the French investment banking giant doesn't include one-time events such as natural disasters, terrorism or a major hacking incident.

Some don't like the term Black Swan, so if there's a market correction event missing from Societe Generale's analysis add it to the comment stream.