Sunday, September 1, 2013

2013 NFL Predictions - AFC North

Here’s my “stepping up to the big boy table” team of
’13. They’ve won 19 games and made the
playoffs in the last two seasons and have young building blocks on both sides
of the ball.

The first of their top talents is AJ Green, a third year
receiver who is already among the best in the game. And he’s doing it in a limited
offense. Andy Dalton has a limited arm,
and Cinci’s complimentary receivers are, yes, limited. I think what we’ve seen from Dalton is what we’re going
to get. He’ll keep the Bengals in games,
but he won’t regularly be the reason they win them. The NFL becomes more of a QB league every
year, but you can still win with a Dilfer if you excel in other areas. Fortunately for the Bengals, they do. They made two great additions in the draft
picking up Tyler Eifert and Giovani Bernard.
Eifert is a more dynamic pass catcher than Jermaine Gresham but will
team with the former Sooner to maximize Dalton’s
intermediate strength. Bernard is more
versatile and talented than BenJarvus Green-Ellis and should take over as
primary ball carrier sooner rather than later.
I like the 1-2 combo and the passing game they’ve developed. I was impressed by their second half run,
winning 7 of 8 by an average of 14 points, and I believe it will only get
better with the new additions.

Cincinnati
has possibly the most underrated defense in the game. Geno Atkins may not be a household name just
yet, but he’s the best professional at his position. Although his sack numbers are what get him
attention, he’s the total package and the #1 reason the Bengals are so
successful on this side of the ball.
They retained their best pass rusher, Michael Johnson, and have depth at
the position with the addition of Margus Hunt.
Undrafted free agent Vontaze Burfict turned out to be quite the steal
last year, and they’ve added former Steeler, James Harrison, to the linebacking
crew. He’ll have to adjust to a new
defense, but he looks like a guy with some game in him still. Rey Maualuga remains the weak link to the
front seven. Cinci’s secondary was
banged up for a good bit of last year but when healthy is a deep unit. Leon Hall is still their #1, but
unfortunately last year’s highly drafted rookie, Dre Kirkpatrick, has yet to
push veterans Terence Newman and Adam Jones.
Safety could be their weak spot this season. I’m not a big Reggie Nelson fan, and George
Iloka won an uninspiring camp battle for the other starting spot.

If the Bengals were a stock, I’d be buying. Denver and New
England get most of the attention when it comes to AFC contenders, but I believe
Cincinnati is
going to have a say before all is said and done.

MVP – Geno Atkins

Breakout – Giovani Bernard

Disappointment – Rey Maualuga

2) Baltimore
Ravens

Baltimore
wasn’t the best team in the league last year, but they were the best when it
mattered most. They’ll have an even
tougher Lombardi hill to climb this season.
Ray Lewis retired, and Anquan Boldin was traded to the Super Bowl
runners up. The exodus didn’t end
there. Also gone are Ed Reed, Dannell
Ellerbe, Paul Kruger, Bernard Pollard, and Cary Williams.

You’d like go through more than a handful of names before
you got to Joe Flacco when discussing the game’s best passers, but the Ravens
QB, deservedly so, won over a lot of new fans with his play down the stretch
last season. There may not be a better,
more consistent deep ball passer in the league.
Torrey Smith enters his third year and will be counted on to step up big
time in Boldin’s absence, especially when you look at the rest of the depth
chart. Jacoby Jones has proven to be a
poor #2, and the undrafted Marlon Brown may see a lot of action by default. Not helping things in the passing game is the
loss of Dennis Pitta to a hip injury for the season before it even
started. Due to the deficiencies at
receiver, Ray Rice will assume an even bigger role this year. I expect him to have a year that matches or
exceeds his career season in ’11. Bernard
Pierce proved himself to be a starting caliber runner in his own right last
year and figures to see plenty of touches.
That could mean more of Rice in the passing game, which would be the
best way for the Ravens to mitigate the Boldin and Pitta losses given their
available resources.

The Ravens did a nice job responding to their losses on this
side of the ball. Kruger cashed in on
his big year and will be replaced by Elvis Dumervil, the former Bronco who left
the mile high city after a contract snafu.
Having a completely healthy Terrell Suggs is an obvious plus and gives
the Ravens a fine 1-2 pass rushing combo.
Haloti Ngata remains an elite defensive lineman, but Terrence Cody is
still underwhelming. Watch for Brandon
Williams, a small school guy I was high on in the draft, to make an
impact. That’s a net gain up front. The loss at linebacker of both Ellerbe and
Lewis will be tough to recover from right away, I really liked their selection
of Arthur Brown in the draft. He should
be an instant contributor and one of the better rookie defenders in the entire
league. Courtney Upshaw looked like a
bust last year and reportedly hasn’t made significant strides yet in camp this
year. Losing Reed hurts the Ravens more
than it helps the Texans in my opinion, and the loss of Cary Williams is more
than made up for by the healthy return of Lardarius Webb. I’m big on their other corners, Jimmy Smith
and Corey Graham, too.

It was a great story, ride, or whatever you want to call it,
but the Ravens aren’t likely to be among the first few teams mentioned as Super
Bowl participants from the AFC. I think
they’ll be better defensively, but will the target on their back prove to be
too much?

MVP – Ray Rice

Breakout – Jimmy Smith

Disappointment – Courtney Upshaw

3) Pittsburgh
Steelers

These guys looked reeeeeealy old last year down the stretch
in losing five of their last seven games.
Can they rebound, or will they fall further back in the division?

Ben Roethlisberger remains one of the best innovators at his
position. He’s had to put more and more
on his shoulders each season, and that looks to be the case again this time
around. Projected primary back Le’Veon
Bell sustained a foot injury this preseason, so the Steelers will kick things
off with the uninspiring combo of Isaac Redman, Felix Jones, and La’Rod
Stephens-Howling. I like Bell, but who knows when
he’ll be ready? Antonio Brown became
Ben’s #1 target last season, and Emmanuel Sanders and rookie Markus Wheaton
will be productive second and third options.
I don’t think Wallace was a huge loss, especially considering what Wheaton brings to the
table. Heath Miller’s value is
understated, and he’s trying to come back from a knee injury sustained at the
end of last season. The key to this
offense, once again, will be the performance of their uninspiring offensive
line. Getting last year’s draft pick,
David DeCastro, back healthy is a big boost, but the flipping of tackles in
training camp with Marcus Gilbert going to the right side and Mike Adams to the
left doesn’t appear promising.

Most of the familiar faces return on defense; the notable
losses being veterans James Harrison and Casey Hampton. Jason Worilds will get first shot at
replacing Harrison, but first round pick
Jarvis Jones should see the field quite a bit as well. Lawrence Timmons remains their most
consistent linebacker and will need to take on an even bigger role this year if
the Steelers are going to contend. Troy
Polamalu is reportedly healthier now than he’s been in either of the past two
seasons, but both he and his safety counterpart, Ryan Clark, are on the down
side of their respective careers. The
lack of playmakers at the cornerback position should be more evident than ever
this season as each of the other teams in this division pick up their passing
games.

I wasn’t big on these guys last year, and I’m a real hater
this year. They’re a tough team to bet
against, but I think they’ll need too many things to go wrong with the rest of
the division (namely Cincinnati
and Baltimore) to make much noise.

MVP – Ben Roethlisberger

Breakout – Le’Veon Bell

Disappointment – LaMarr Woodley

4) Cleveland
Browns

The Holmgren era is over, and with it Browns fans hope is
the five year stretch of four and five win seasons. Can this team finally become relevant again?

For years the talent on Cleveland’s offensive line went to waste as
the lack of playmakers at the other offensive positions was well below
par. Things began to change last year
with the addition of Trent Richardson at running back, and there should be an
even bigger boost this year with Rob Chudzinksi installed as head coach and
Norv Turner as his offensive coordinator.
If Josh Gordon gets his head on straight, he’ll be the featured receiver,
and Jordan Cameron has a chance to be the next tight end to have his game
elevated by coach Chud. I think we’ll
see good things from Brandon Weeden as this offense should emphasize his strong
arm and decision making.

The Browns focused on defense this offseason in an effort to
get more consistency from a unit that has shown flashes of potential. They’ll be huge if nothing else up front with
Phil Taylor, Desmond Bryant, and Ahtyba Rubin checking in at nearly a grand
combined. They gave Jabaal Sheard more
pass rush help with the additions of Kruger and first round pick Barkevious
Mingo. I’m not a Mingoholic, but he’s in
a great spot since he’ll be broken in as a pass rushing specialist. Joe Haden continues his ascent to the top of
the league’s list of corners, but they’re still shuffling candidates at the other
spot.

I think this team is definitely headed in the right
direction. While an improvement upon
five wins is likely, there’s too much talent in the division to expect much of
a climb, if any, in the standings.