Daily MAAD was positive Thursday by 16 to 4, but remains below cumulative short to intermediate high made March 11. Daily MAAD Ratio was “Neutral” with a negative bias at .95.

Daily CPFL remains below new short to intermediate high made March 27. Daily MAAD Ratio was last “Neutral” with a negative bias at .95.

Cumulative Volume (CV) in both S&P 500 and S&P Emini has remained in synch with S&P 500 pricing since November intermediate-term lows, long-term negative divergences persist.

Market Overview – What We Think:

Thursday’s lower volume rebound could prove to be temporary bounce within context of developing short-term top.

Coupled with pickup in volatility from bearish levels, we would not be surprised to see Minor Cycle gain some legs on downside in sessions just ahead.

When coupled with fact Daily MAAD fractured on downside Wednesday uptrend in effect since November 16 lows, this short-term pullback could have ramifications on larger Intermediate Cycle.

Fact that Daily MAAD did not confirm new highs in S&P 500 and Dow 30 by peaking back on March 11 means Smart Money did not believe new highs in those indexes. Classic Advance/Decline Line was not so prescient and merely peaked last Thursday just two days in front of new highs in S&P and Dow with no negative divergence in place.

But until short-term trend has appreciable effect on larger Intermediate Cycle that began after November lows, we must regard ALL short-term pullbacks as merely corrections in larger intermediate trend.

Index

Price Channel Stops (10-Bar MAs of Highs/Lows )

Weekly

Monthly

4/1

4/2

4/3

4/4

4/5

4/5

4/30

S&P 500 Index

SELL1546.37

SELL1547.14

SELL1547.89

SELL1550.24

SELL1550.24

SELL1485.30

SELL1349.76

Dow Jones Industrials

SELL14414.46

SELL14419.66

SELL14422.73

SELL14440.07

SELL14440.07

SELL13712.81

SELL12653.67

NASDAQ Composite

SELL3225.72

SELL3227.89

SELL3227.54

SELL3232.01

SELL3232.01

SELL3115.64

SELL2882.50

Value Line Index

SELL3507.31

SELL3508.92

SELL3507.87

SELL3511.93

SELL3511.93

SELL3335.08

SELL2859.75

Note: Stop levels, a function of the extant trend, are based on the trailing moving average price channels for the Highs or the Lows of an index. Whether or not a specific index is suggesting a “Buy” or Sell” is determined by whether or not index prices are above or below the current channel Stop levels. Stop levels should only be used as an entry or exit guide and in conjunction with other market entry and exit strategies.