Hi Doug: Can you evaluate the relative strengths/weaknesses of the Astro three of Jarred Cosart, Dallas Keuchel, and Collin McHugh. My general take is that Cosart has stuff, but control issues limit his upside, Keuchel seems to have harnessed something to start the 2014 season and from what I've read has his share of supporters at BP, and then McHugh I realize has small sample size, but does he have a chance to sustain some amount of the success of his first two starts or is he reversion waiting to happen. I saw that the Astros pitching coach said that he wasn't the same pitcher in late April that he was in spring trainer. Your thoughts on the three and whether any of them are long-term starters (or bullpen or minor-league bound) are appreciated. Thanks.(Drifter from Long Branch )

I really like Cosart's baseline mechanics, with average or better grades in every category except for Repetition. But there's the rub, because repetition is by far the most important grade on the mechanics report card, and he won't approach ceiling until he can find consistency with his delivery. He is also a 2-pitch guy, essentially, and though he throws very hard, he will need to refine the cambio if he hopes to find sustained success in the rotation.

Keuchel is an example of a pitcher who is very well-balanced but who utilizes a very slow delivery as part of that approach. The pedestrian pace opens up the chance to mistime his delivery and necessitates a different timing pattern from the stretch. Command is key for a pitcher with a 90-mph fastball, and Keuchel has the underpinnings of a pitcher who will struggle with that element at times.

I have not yet had the chance to watch McHugh, but I'm looking forward to seeing him in action. (Doug Thorburn)

Hi RJ, curious if there is a recent precedent for what Collin McHugh is doing, and if so, how long was Quality Start performance sustained by the precedent? Andrew Albers comes to mind, but I think they're different pitchers.(Drifter from Long Branch)

Albers is a good call as a pop-up type. Maybe Scott Diamond as well? Back in 2012 he had a pretty good ERA for a few months there. It's funny because McHugh's comment in the annual wasn't the least bit optimistic:

After another disastrous season—this one split between the Mets and Rockies, preceding an offseason waiver claim by the Astros—it's time to ask what McHugh really offers a major-league team. The only pitches he routinely throws for strikes—his fastball and slider—were hammered for slugging percentages over .550 (as was his sinker, at .952). His only asset appears to be his changeup, a groundball machine. But nothing about that arsenal suggests McHugh would succeed out of the bullpen, either—his fastball is just too hittable, and none of his breaking pitches have shown swing-and-miss movement. On second thought, maybe it's not time to ask the question, but rather to answer it.

Obviously pitchers can change, and maybe he's found something that works for him. My guess is he'll fade and we'll look back in a year at McHugh like we're doing right now with Albers and Diamond. There is something interesting about his profile: he's become less of a groundball pitcher thus far; not just in his two big-league appearances, but also in his 14 minor-league innings, too. I guess I should make an appointment to see his next start. (R.J. Anderson)

So ... Collin McHugh. 12Ks (including 3 of Robbie Cano), 0BB doesn't scream fluke. He's obviously not an ace, and almost as obviously has a good shot at sticking as a number 5. My question is in the middle -- how likely is he to turn into a genuine mid-rotation guy?(edwardarthur from Illinois)

It does scream fluke. Seattle should be embarrassed. I'd honestly be blown away if he sticks, let alone succeeds. (Paul Sporer)

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PITCHf/x Pitcher Profile

Collin McHugh has thrown 3,671 pitches that have been tracked by the PITCHf/x system between 2011 and 2014, including pitches thrown in the MLB Regular Season and Fall/Winter Ball. In 2014, he has relied primarily on his Fourseam Fastball (92mph), Slider (87mph) and Curve (74mph), also mixing in a Change (84mph). He also rarely throws a Sinker (92mph) and Slow Curve (57mph).