Long-term thinking needed

This season the Astros can afford to experiment. They must get younger.

The absolute worst thing they can do is make a move for the sake of making a move.

Just because they were unable to sign Beltran, just because their lineup looks thinner than a Barry Bonds alibi, the Astros shouldn't feel compelled to run out and find another center fielder. They should remind themselves that the Seattle Mariners lost Alex Rodriguez and got better.

The Astros are broken at the moment, but they're not going to be fixed by anything still on the free-agent market. Their long-term success is linked to their farm system. It's that way for most teams.

From the moment the Astros allowed agent Scott Boras to control their offseason, they knew the risk. They believed Beltran was worth it.

Give Lane, Burke a chance

The Astros must use this season to make evaluations on some of their young players. Barring a trade, they ought to put
Jason Lane
in the outfield and
Chris Burke
at second and leave them there.

Beltran's departure probably means another season in the outfield for Craig Biggio. This is unfair to him, but one thing Biggio has shown over and over is that he'll do whatever he's asked to do.

He'll struggle with the defensive side of the game, but the debate comes down to having Burke or a journeyman such as Randy Winn in the lineup.

Burke gets this vote.

Today might feel like general manager Tim Purpura's first real day on the job. For two months, he hasn't had the go-ahead to do anything of significance because team owner Drayton McLane wasn't going to spend money on any other player until he found out how much Beltran and Roger Clemens were going to cost.

Now Purpura is free to start work. He even has some money to spend.

Problem is, there's not much left in free agency. He might explore trades for Jose Cruz Jr. and Winn, but both are bad ideas. Both players are making too much money. Both players will cost too much in terms of young players.

A more interesting possibility is Texas second baseman Alfonso Soriano, who has averaged 35 homers and 94 RBIs the last three seasons. The Rangers probably will want Brandon Backe and Burke.

Given that Soriano's salary will approach $10 million in 2005, Backe and Burke are better values. But Soriano is an impact player.

I'd keep Burke and Backe and hope I hit on both. Player development is all about making projections. Nothing is guaranteed.

Purpura will be more aggressive pushing younger guys than Gerry Hunsicker was. That's even more important in the wake of Beltran's departure.

As for Boras, he leaves another team feeling bad about the outcome and the process.

The Beltran deal didn't fall apart because McLane refused to grant a no-trade clause, as some outlets have reported. It fell apart because McLane was unable to pin down Boras on exactly what he wanted.

At midafternoon Saturday, when Boras made what one source called "an outrageous proposal," the Astros began to realize they weren't going to make a deal.

McLane had convinced himself he had a real chance of signing Beltran. We might never know if he did.

Now begins an uncertain — and frightening — time for the Astros.

Purpura will meet with his baseball staff this morning to evaluate trades and free agency.

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They're all stung by Beltran's decision. Good organizations survive such hits. They trust their judgment and move ahead. That's what the Astros ought to do.