Go 2 Guy: Don't bet against Cougars today

Published 10:00 pm, Friday, October 13, 2006

I work with two Cal grads, Mariners beat writer John Hickey and Sonics beat writer Gary Washburn, both of whom think they will enjoy today's game in Pullman more than I will.

Another guy I work with, newly hired Jon Naito, is a Coug but not a Coug in the truest sense. When he heard that I wanted to take Washington State and the points for $5 with Hickey and Washburn, Naito clamored for part of that action, too.

I've been a nonbelieving Coug before, many times in fact, but never to the point that I'd bet against the football team. That would be disloyal, bad karma and just not right.

Like the co-workers, oddsmakers think the Golden Bears will have their way with the Cougs this afternoon at Martin Stadium, making them 8 1/2-point favorites.

Betting lines hold a special interest for the Go 2 Guy because they are generally very close to the actual outcome. I say generally because if I were to bet $5,000 on the Cougs today, they would lose 63-0.

It's interesting that USC arrived in Pullman two weeks ago as a 17-point favorite, and Cal, which might be superior to the Trojans, is viewed as 8 1/2 points inferior to USC, given this morning's line.

With all of their offensive weapons, the 5-1 Bears are a justifiable choice. They have averaged more than 40 points in their past five games, otherwise known as "since Tennessee."

Nothing irritates coach Jeff Tedford more than lingering questions about Cal's 35-18 loss to the Volunteers, which suggests the Bears aren't worthy of the national stage, though their top 10 ranking would indicate otherwise.

I'm not on the Bears' bandwagon, but then, I wouldn't be on it under any circumstances. Though they've pummeled everyone since the season opener, there are enough reasons to believe the Bears are going down today.

Many of these reasons are concocted by a wishful thinker, but others are based in fact.

Let's start with the concocted ones: The Bears' only quality victory in their five-game winning streak was last week when they out-Oregoned Oregon in every phase of the game, including gaudy yellow uniforms.

The other wins were over a 2-4 Minnesota team, a whatever they are Portland State team, a shambles of an Arizona State team and a fractured Oregon State team.

In that stretch, Cal played just one game on the road, smacking a Beavers' team that will be smacked by a lot of teams, including Washington today.

Yes, Cal is formidable, but it's also more vulnerable than invincible. The Bears' prolific offensive stats obscure their horrific defensive stats. Cal is ninth in the Pac-10 in pass defense and total defense, which opens up a chance for the Cougs to win in a shootout.

It's certainly possible.

Last year Washington State rolled up 600 yards on many of these same Bears defenders. That was the game in which Jason Hill caught three touchdown passes in the third quarter. It was also the game in which the Cougs lost a late 10-point lead after a botched fake punt, but never mind that, this is designed to promote slivers of hope.

Here's the problem: Washington State will play without tight end Cody Boyd and perhaps Hill, who will be limited because of a shoulder injury if he makes an appearance. Even with Boyd and Hill last week, the Cougars had trouble moving the ball in a 13-6 victory in Corvallis.

Ah, but that pessimistic note can be glossed over by an optimistic one -- Cal has not won in Pullman since 1979. In the nine-game streak, the Bears haven't just lost, they've been drubbed by an average score of 36-18, most notably a 63-17 shellacking by Ryan Leaf and the '97 Cougs.

History shouldn't have anything to do with these teams this year, yet it shouldn't shock anyone if it does. For reasons unknown, some teams just seem to struggle at certain places, and Pullman's that place for Cal.

You give me a Cal strength and I'll counter with a potential weakness. Statistically, Nate Longshore is the Pac-10's best quarterback, but the Pac-10's best running back, Marshawn Lynch, might be hampered by a sprained ankle.

Longshore figures to annoy with a few third-and-long completions, but he's just as apt to be found with his back to the turf, dropped by a defense that leads the country in sacks.

Tom Schneider has yet to miss a kick this season, but this is an obvious letdown spot for the Bears, who were primed for the Ducks last week.

On ESPN's "College Gameday" this morning, Lee Corso will probably pick Cal and say something about it being "closer than the experts think."