Wednesday, November 23, 2005

White Sox - Reportedly Acquired Thome

To me, this looks like a needless risk, even if the White Sox get a ton of money along with Thome to cover his contract. If the White Sox didn’t feel comfortable overpaying for Konerko, I think it would have been far better to bite the bullet, stick Ross Gload at 1st and trade the extra outfielder for a 1B prospect or fill another need. Don’t what to do that? Then stick Dye at first, which should keep him fairly healthy and make room for Brian Anderson that way.

Instead, the White Sox are gambling when there’s little need to gamble and while they do want to make room for Brian Anderson, Rowand is the starting outfielder they can least afford to lose. He deserved to be winning his 2nd gold glove this offseason instead of his 0th after all and 20 runs above average defense in center is worth more than a 118 OPS+ from the rightfielder or the speedy numbskullery found in left. Rowand was the centerpiece of a defense that made the pitching staff look like Hall of Famers and I doubt Anderson can match Rowand.

This can work out, of course, but given Jim Thome’s physical breakdown, I don’t think it will. There’s nothing to not like from the Phils persepctive - they don’t want Thome, they don’t need Thome and the feeling’s probably mutual by this point. They get out of some of the contract and get a gold glove centerfielder (deserved, though not awarded) in return for having a problem taken off their hands.

It’s also rumored that a few of the White Sox pitching prospects are going to the Phils too - more on that when more information is available. I don’t see that as improving the trade.

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If the White Sox gave up those prospects, I think this is a jaw-droppingly terrible trade. Of course, there is a chance that Thome will bounce back to form, and then people will (again) say that Williams is a genius. But it looks like a horrible gamble to me, and even if it works out in 2006 there are three years left on that contract.

PHILADELPHIA (AP) -- The Philadelphia Phillies reached a preliminary agreement Wednesday to send Jim Thome and cash to the World Series champion Chicago White Sox for center fielder Aaron Rowand.

The deal is subject to the players passing physicals, the Phillies and White Sox said. Because of the cash involved, it also must be approved by the commissioner's office. The Phillies are giving the White Sox $22 million as part of the deal, a baseball official said, speaking on condition of anonymity because the teams did not make that information public.

Gonzalez hasn't been confirmed. It looks like haigwood is definite. reports are that it's haigwood and a PTBNL.

Another factor is how good is Rowand defensively. I think we al agree that he's good. But is he Erstad/Cameron kind of good 25-40 RAA or Vernon Wells good 10-20 RAA? I would say he's 10-20 good and i think that's easier to coming close to replacing than the other which is rare.

Well let's check the data. Last year UZR had him at +24, Gassko had him at less than +20 (he only lists the 2 guys at or above +20), BP's FRAA had him at +7, Chone's system had him at +14, Dial had him at +13. So really good but a little more easily replaceable than the otherwordly Cameron/Erstad CF ratings of the past. still hate to see him go.

I have no clue whether Sox's scout ratings of defense are at all useful in reality.

From what I understand, Young is supposed to be the best of the three in center. He's also likely to be the best of the three hitting-wise.

Of course, the main problem is that he's unlikely to be ready until 2007. I don't trust Anderson at all, but good defensive CFs with horrible plate discipline are worth a lot (see Rowand), so I think it might be clever to try to get a good year out of him and then see if they can trade him to clear the way for Young. It does no good to have young, ML-ready players sitting on the bench.

In terms of the trade itself, I think people are too down on Thome. At $7 mil/year he's a good risk. If they resign Thomas, I'm pretty sure they'll get a Konerko or better year from at least one of the two.

Is Thome at $7 mil/year worth Rowand and two solid minor league pitching prospects? Probably not, but I don't see why people hate this trade and like the Mets' trade.

Delgado at his salary isn't nearly as good an investment as Thome at $7mil and Petit is a better prospect than either of the Sox ones. I like Rowand, but people thought I was crazy when I said that I thought he might have another 2004 in him somewhere, so what's changed now?

The Sox get the lefthanded slugger they need who is willing to DH or play first base and comes in at $8 million a year. That's only 3 million more than Everett got last year. With Rowand's contract going to Philly it is almost a push.

I assume Kenny is going to re-sign Paulie, but now he has some insurance with Thome. If for some reason Konerko doesn't come back to the Sox then a "healthy" Big Hurt could be an option at DH.

The Sox have a log jam of good young outfielders and Brian Anderson is the best of the lot. He will take over in center and is more than capable.

I just don't understand this from the PHI point of view. $22m??? So basically, they've traded Thome for Rowand and Gio and now will pay Howard $7m per year for the next 3 years. Stupid money on a guy who could be a platoon player.

I'm confident in saying that Anderson is an above average defender. Why? I've talked to people who see him on an everyday basis, like the guys at Futuresox.com. Baseball America has also thought of his defense very highly. I haven't seen anyone (or a publication) give his defense bad remarks...

But, you are right. Rowand is a very good (defensively speaking) out there, and it's going to be hard for anyone to match all the runs he saved out there.

I'm actually a little more dissappointed with the minor leaguers they gave up -- their two best left-handed pitching prospects in Daniel Haigwood and Gio Gonzalez. I'm especially mad about losing Gonzalez. He's been awesome in his year and a half here, he's only 19, has an absolutely filthy curveball (and the K/9 to back up the 'filthiness'), and I was really looking forward to seeing him come up through the system.

To me, it seems like you're giving up too much for a 35 year old with back/elbow problems.

Rowand's one of my favorite players, and I'm gonna tell my kids about his defense, but I'm going to wait until the end of the offseason to evaluate this one.

If Thome is replacing Konerko in the offense, that's nothing to get too excited about. But if Thome ends up replacing Jurassic in the lineup at mainly DH, that's a tremendous upgrade even if Thome's halfway healthy. Carl was just about the team's worst hitter in the second half, and he was getting ABs every day at fifth or higher in the lineup, most of them in the No. 3 hole.

And if Rowand can't master the low and away pitch, he's going to get eaten alive. Every MLB pitcher should be able to get him out the way things are now. Joe Crede had the same problem, but he was able to protect the plate towards the end of the season and extend at-bats -- that's the main reason he went on that postseason tear.

Rowand, meanwhile, kept striking out 5 times per walk, and grounded into 17 DPs compared to five the season before. He didn't show any signs of getting better as the season went on, and lost some 140 points off his SLG%.

It's probably a lot of fun to hail Pat Gillick as brilliant because Kenny Williams is on the opposite side of the trading table, but this needs a wait-and-see approach.

"It's probably a lot of fun to hail Pat Gillick as brilliant because Kenny Williams is on the opposite side of the trading table, but this needs a wait-and-see approach."

I agree with this on both sides of the trade, especially Kenny Williams, especially after last year. I want to see how Anderson looks in the field and what Williams does for the rest of the offseason before I make any decisions about him.

I think most people on this site underrate Thome. You can say his skills are declining, sure, but he can still turn on a fastball and, given the Sox home field, I think he's a good bet to hit 40 HR next year. Also, how does one year of significant injury turn Thome into an "oft-injured" first baseman, to quote the ESPN article?

I hope Rowand lights it up in Philly, Thome delivers in Chicago, and both sides are satisfied. With how hard Rowand plays, he deserves all the success he can get, and I hope he gets on the right side of the Philly media and fans.

Rowand-for-Thome+cash is debatable but somewhat acceptable - Rowand is good, but the one thing the White Sox have is outfield depth. If Chris Young comes even close to his potential, we won't miss Rowand in the long run, and I don't have a huge problem with Brian Anderson filling the gap in the meantime. I will say that the Sox will miss Rowand's glove.

Giving up the pitching prospects I'm less happy about. One or the other should develop into something, and I don't think Thome is worth either plus Rowand.

Ending the Frank Thomas era just makes me extremely sad.

If the White Sox hadn't just finished winning the World Series, I'd probably be angry about this whole thing.

Well let's check the data. Last year UZR had him at +24, Gassko had him at less than +20 (he only lists the 2 guys at or above +20), BP's FRAA had him at +7, Chone's system had him at +14, Dial had him at +13. So really good but a little more easily replaceable than the otherwordly Cameron/Erstad CF ratings of the past. still hate to see him go.

I had Rowand at +6. He's definitely good, though I would agree that he is not a great defensive center fielder.

I'm neither excited about this nor saddened. I loved watching Rowand's defense, but I'm excited to see Brian Anderson (one of my favorite prospects) play everyday in the majors. I'm also disappointed to see Gio Gonzalez leave the organization. Though if you're going to trade him for someone, it should be a guy like Thome.

If this trade means Anderson is the starting CF, then I'm happy with it. If it means they go after Pierre, then I'm not so happy.

In conclusion, very good deal for the Phillies, good deal for the Sox.

I think in the mission to look at a deal as closely as possible and not be reactionary about things, people are missing the fact that Thome is grossly overpaid, an injury risk, old, and was absolutely useless in 238 plate appearances last season. It's a small sample size, sure, but heading into the offseason I was thinking "Man, the Phillies will be lucky to get rid of Jim Thome." Not only did they get rid of him, they got value for him. Kudos to Pat Gillick for this. It may work out on some scale for Chicago, but it's not like there was some huge bid war taking place for Thome. Considering the Mets only gave up a prime pitching prospect and middling younger guy for Delgado, Kenny Williams giving up a prime pitching prospect, a good major league centerfielder, and a good pitching prospect for Jim Thome (albeit with a considerable amount of money) is pretty remarkably short-sighted. Had he put this deal off two months or so (and he most certainly could have) I'm guessing he could have at least kept Haigwood, maybe even Gonzalez.

Is a healthy Thome better than a healthy Thomas? No. Is Thome more likely to be healthy than Thomas? Maybe, but backs scare me more than ankles. Does Thome have the connection with Chicago fans that Thomas does? No. Does Thome fit the "Ozzie ball" that we are supposed to be moving toward? No. Even with the Philly money, is Thome more expensive than Thomas would likely be? Yes.

I can understand not being on board with this trade. There are concerns about Thome's health, and questions about whether a similar player could have been acquired for less in the way of money or players.

What I don't understand is basing your conclusion on questions like "Does Thome fit the 'Ozzie ball' that we are supposed to be moving toward?" or, even worse, dismissing Thomas' very serious injury concerns with some vague, unfounded opinion ("backs scare me more than ankles").

Great move for the Phils. Rowand is one of the more underrated players in the game. If he gets a smidge of a power boost over the next few years and starts bombing 20-25 home runs every year (as opposed to 25 one year and 13 the next), he'll be a legit top-class player if his defense holds up.

Kenny's next move is either re-sign Konerko and put Anderson in center or package Anderson/Marte for Pierre and look for a DH....possibly the Big Hurt.

I don't think re-signing Konerko and Pierre are in the budget due to all the other salary bumps on the current roster. The only way I think Konerko and Pierre could be an option is if the Sox dumped one of the pitching salaries like Contreras's or El Duque's.

If Konerko and Pierre are signed then Iguchi could be dropped down the order.

I wasn't intending to be "restrictive." Let's broaden the question, how many times has a team dealt for a 34 year old player (or older) and had the trade work out. I see, Joel's point about Schilling and Johnson. I was thinking about hitters.

To my way of thinking the difference between dealing for a 33 year old and 35 year old is a quantum leap in risk. If you compile a list of the the players that are still contributing in more than sporadic spurts after the age of 35 you will find a list populate almost exclusively by the greatest players in baseball history. Does anyone really think Thome is one of those guys? Or is he a guy like Thomas, Bagwell, Foxx or a hundred other great players. If there is one truism in baseball history it is that old players age much, much more rapidly than almost anyone thinks they will. Most fans, even very smart fans, think, "If he did it last year then he can do it this year."

Thome's lifetime OPS is 970, which is very good -- no where near the top of the charts but very good. By comaprison sake, Thomas's OPS through age 34 was 996; Mize was .997; Foxx was 1.047. However, the 10th greatest career OPS AFTER the age of 34 was Ken Williams of the old Browns (playing in an offensive park in an offensive era) was .894. In order to do anything even romotely resembling his lifetime numbers Thome would have to be the fourth greatest old player ever -- behind guys name Bonds, Ruth and Williams. Thome is a 35 year old player with old players skills who is coming off back problems. Isn't it a whole lot more likely that he'll pull a Frank Thomas (900 ABS in three post 34 season), or Mize (who went from a magesterial 185 OPS+ at the age of 33 to a 112 and platoon role by age 36) or Jimmie Foxx (who collapsed after age of 33) or Jeff Bagwell, or Reggie (who had two good years after 34), or Duke Snider (who had one) or Killebrew (who had two).

Essentially, the best that the Sox can hope for out of this trade (the very best) is that Thome might turn in two year of 140 OPS+. Many of you think that the 60% of Rowand's peak and all of the potential of Gonzalez and Haigwood are worth that. I don't. I mean would you all be this excited if the Sox had just acquired two years of Johnny Peralta to be our DH (he was a 139 OPS+ this year) or two years of Richie Sexson or two years of Nick Johnson? Of course not, but that's the very best we can hope for -- that over the next three seasons Jim Thome will have tow in which he aspires to be Richie Sexson and one where he hopes just to be average.

Considering the Mets only gave up a prime pitching prospect and middling younger guy for Delgado, Kenny Williams giving up a prime pitching prospect, a good major league centerfielder, and a good pitching prospect for Jim Thome (albeit with a considerable amount of money) is pretty remarkably short-sighted.

This ignores the facts that Delgado is owed $2 million more than Thome over the next three years and that the White Sox are receiving $15 million more from the Phillies than the Mets are receiving from the Marlins. The Mets can absorb the money more easily than the Sox can, for sure. It's incomplete to compare the Delgado and Thome trades without looking at the money, too.

Vince get use to the part where they conveniently forget to mention the money when comparing trades.

ex #1 Becket and Lowell for prospects.
ex #2 Delgado for prospects.
ex #3 Thome for Rowand and to top prospects.

The reality is that Thome is coming with $22 million dollars.

Just like Loiaza for Contreras plus $9 million dollars. How did that workout? Got a front line pitcher who was came up big in August and September, not to mention the WS ,for $6 million dollars a year.

Remember the money Kenny saved when he traded Lee for Podsednik and Vizcaino allowed him to sign AJ and Iguchi.

I'm mildly disappointed. I wish Gillick had acquired a starter instead of Rowand. He's only one year younger than Michaels and costs more. The fact that he had a career year in 2004 and fell significantly in 2005 can't be ignored. I just really wish the Phillies would give Michaels a full-time look. I really believe he could do better than Rowand's 2005 offensive numbers, given 500+ plate appearances. Defense is entirely another matter.

On the other hand, it's great to see that the Phils actually have a GM who can get a little creative. You just know that if Wade were still around he'd let the Howard/Thome situation fester and finally swap Howard for the trendiest journeyman setup man available. Instead, Gillick gets a solid CF, two lefty pitching prospects (does this make Cole Hamels available???), and saves $25 million.

This isn't remotely clear. Thome has had one bad year in the past decade. Thomas appears to be significantly less durable(600 PA in 2 of the past 5 years) and there is no reason to believe Thomas would outperform a healthy Thome. They both appear to be entirely capable of putting up 150 OPS+ when healthy.

Remember the money Kenny saved when he traded Lee for Podsednik and Vizcaino allowed him to sign AJ and Iguchi.

Last I checked, the Phils were only paying for a portion of the White Sox' additional burden, not saving the White Sox money. Say you'd rather have Thome at $9 million than Ross Gload at $1 million, but the Sox aren't "saving" anything.

This ignores the facts that Delgado is owed $2 million more than Thome over the next three years and that the White Sox are receiving $15 million more from the Phillies than the Mets are receiving from the Marlins. The Mets can absorb the money more easily than the Sox can, for sure. It's incomplete to compare the Delgado and Thome trades without looking at the money, too.

No I understand the money should be taken into account. My greater point is just that even with the money involved Kenny Williams overpaid for Jim Thome.

Put it this way.

The Mets gave up a great pitching prospect and a middling younger guy for the right to pay Carlos Delgado 2 million more over the next three years than Jim Thome, whom the White Sox gave up a great pitching prospect, a good pitching prospect, and a good center fielder for. On top of this, Carlos Delgado is a much better bet to actually be worth his salary over that time.

Acquiring Jim Thome wasn't necessarily bad, but not waiting until the offer could be better (and by looking at the Mets deal, it certainly could have been at least a little better) was the mistake. That's my point.

Anthony,
Your statistics are more than a little misleading. You cite the best after 35 OPS, but you don't mention that those stats include not only the age 35, 36 and 37 years, but also the 38, 39 and 40 etc. years.

Taking Hank Aaron as an example. His after 35 OPS was .916, but that included an average OPS of 1.012 his 35,36,37 years and some sub .700 ops seasons his last years. Now Hank Aaron is someone who aged well, but if you include the 38,39,40 etc. years in your analysis then they are obviuosly going to skew a study of the best performances during the age 35, 36 and 37 seasons (the length of Thome's contract).

BB-ref doesn't break it down in that manner, so I don't have access to the best performances of age 35-37, but it is clear that the 10th best performance of those three years is considerably better than you indicate. So Thome having > .900 OPS for the next 3 years is not as unlikely as you state.

The Mets gave up a great pitching prospect and a middling younger guy for the right to pay Carlos Delgado 2 million more over the next three years than Jim Thome, whom the White Sox gave up a great pitching prospect, a good pitching prospect, and a good center fielder for.

You are still confused (or your post is written that way, at least), but I didn't spell it out clearly, either, so here goes. According to Cot's Contracts, Carlos Delgado's contract calls for him to be paid $48 million over the next three years (including fourth-year buyout). According to the same site, Thome is owed $43.5 million (including fourth-year buyout) over the next three years plus $2.5 million in the final payment of Thome's signing bonus, or $46 million in total. The Marlins will send the Mets $7 million in cash, so their cost for three years is $41 million. The Phillies will send the Sox $22 million, so their cost for three years is $24 million.

That $17 million difference is what's driving the disparity in talent that the Mets and Sox had to send to complete their respective deals. It makes sense for the Mets to buy players with dollars rather than minor league talent because they can afford the dollars more. The Sox, even after winning the title, are more wary of doing that, and while their local revenue is certainly good relative to MLB as a whole, it's not as good as that of the Mets.

You can still argue that Williams paid more than Minaya, but I think both of your posts on this topic have been misleading because you haven't correctly spelled out the money side of the deals.

That ZiPs projection from Thome looks very odd. 35 homers but only 66 runs and 19 doubles?? If he stays on the field and puts up something resembling .241/.379/.535, though, the Sox will be in pretty good shape next year.

The Sox needed a middle-of-the order hitter, preferably one that can bat from the left side. I think Thome is a good fit.

I agree with some that KW could have waited it out as not to give up as much talent, but I think the Sox face a real, and maybe likely, situation that Konerko is a goner. Dealing for Thome helps KW hedge his bets in two ways. The first is that he still has a 1B/DH if Paulie leaves. The second is that should Konerko sign for a ton of money elsewhere, the Sox don't take a huge PR hit. I know that's hard to quantify, but it should be a really big concern for the team as it tries to solidify a fan base that's growing after a World Series title.

Right now, I could easily envision a Sox team that goes into next season with a lineup like this:

If Frank Thomas isn't healthy, then the only differences between what the Sox would be putting out there are Rowand-for-Anderson and Konerko-for-Thome.

Offensively, I think Anderson can do as well as Rowand did this past season (I'm setting aside defense for now, because I don't expect there to be a consensus opinion). So this really comes down to giving up talent to have Thome for 3-years/$24 million or Konerko for 5-years/$65 million(?). I certainly feel more comfortable with the former.

Of course, if they do resign Konerko in the neighborhood of that contract amount, the whole situation becomes a lot riskier. Then the Sox will still have almost $100 million tied up in a pair of over-30-DH types.

It's also worthwhile to point out that this move will be easier to evaluate once we get through the offseason and see what other moves are made. Then we can assess the cumulative risk/reward position in which the Sox find themselves. Right now this is only the first domino to fall.

This isn't remotely clear. Thome has had one bad year in the past decade. Thomas appears to be significantly less durable(600 PA in 2 of the past 5 years) and there is no reason to believe Thomas would outperform a healthy Thome. They both appear to be entirely capable of putting up 150 OPS+ when healthy.

My question was very simple, and you answered a different question. I asked if both are healthy, is Thome better? You gave reasons why both are not as likely to be healthy and reasons why Thome is as good.

The Sox, after buying out Frank's option, could still have signed him for a total of less money than they are on the hook for with Thome, with no more guarantee that Thome will be healthy than they have of Frank (unless they know something about Frank that they are not revealing.) A healthy Thome is not an upgrade (note that I didn't say he is a downgrade) over a healthy Thomas, and Thomas could be had for a lot less money.

Last I checked, the Phils were only paying for a portion of the White Sox' additional burden, not saving the White Sox money. Say you'd rather have Thome at $9 million than Ross Gload at $1 million, but the Sox aren't "saving" anything.

As far as Ross Gload I don't think he will be on the roster assuming Konerko is signed.

With Thome able to give Paulie a break at first from time to time, Gload's glove and lefthanded bat are not needed anymore. And after seeing Ross try to play the outfield last year I don't see any fit for him on the 2006 team.

Talent-wise, I think it's O.K. if Williams didn't throw in good prospects. Rowand is no great shakes as a hitter, and I like his chances to tank. His best OF'ing days are apparently behind him. But I don't like this from a roster-management standpoint. The Sox already had a can't-play-often-but-hits-when-he-does-play guy pretty much in the bag, so why get another one <u>and</u> give up talent to boot? This smacks of Todd Ritchie all over again.

Your statistics are more than a little misleading. You cite the best after 35 OPS, but you don't mention that those stats include not only the age 35, 36 and 37 years, but also the 38, 39 and 40 etc. years.

Okay, bhoov, you're right. All I was trying to do was remind everyone that they are not buying a 32-year old Thome but a 35-year old one and that the difference between the production expected from those few years is huge.

But, here's is a fuller breakdown with three year totals (900 PAs) of OPS:

If you wish to go all pollyanna and want to see only Thome's age 32-33 years and pretend that his injuries in 2005 don't matter then:

32-33 Thome .921 (51st)

So it seems to me that the very best that we can hope for over the next three years of Thome's career is a composite OPS of something like .890, which would be fortieth all-time and sandwich in with guys like Averill, Ott, Clemente, Sauer and George Harper. But it drops off very fast from there. If Thome's just keeps pace with those player who were 50th all-time in OPS between the ages of 35-37(his slot from his last two healthy seasons) then he the expected OPS would only be .865.

The 40th best year (min 300 PAs)at: age 35-yar is Mickey Vernon's .921; age 36-year is Darrell Evans' .894; age 37-year is Frank Robinson's .861. However, these are based on only 300 PAs, and if Thome only got 300 PAs in any of these years the trade obviously looks much worse.

If you change the minimum PAs to 600 then you get a 40th best total of .867 (Minoso), .796 (Brady Anderson), .767 (Reese) for age 35, 36, 37 respectively. The 40th OPS generated by a full-time player from age 35-37 was Joe Carter all the way down at .731.

So, I guess you can pick your poison. The statistics suggest that Thome will either be a very good .890 OPS part-time player or a pretty dreadful .731 OPS full-time player.

I don't like this trade because I tend to be very liberal about evaluating prospect value. See my take on the Delgado trade.

But people who think that the Delgado trade was awesome and this trade is terrible, what is the logic?

Delgado at his age is certainly a better player than Thome at his age, but he's also costing the Mets $9mil more/year than the Thome is costing the Sox. Remember that the Marlins-->Mets payments are only to help with tax payments on Delgado's salary.

Is Rowand undervalued for his contract? Definitely, but both sides knew that, otherwise he's not in the deal at all. Haigwood is exactly the type of player that over-stat focused GMs would overrate--excelling with average stuff at a low-minors level.

Gonzalez is troubling. I think he is likely to have so major league success--which is worth a lot, since he would be making the minimum.

But there's still a lot of things that could go wrong--he could get injured, he could be forced to move to the bullpen, in which case, he's still valuable, but pretty worthless directly to the Sox, etc.

Here's a question for the naysayers: Who is more likely to provide healthy time in the Majors, Thome or Gonzalez?

Outta a curiousity, I fiddled around with Thome's 10 most similar comps through age 34 to see what (if anything) I could learn about how he'll do.

What I did is take each guy on the top list, and write down how many win shares they had at each age of their lives. I'm looking here not only for guys who are sabermetrically similar to Thome (sim scores obviously get guys with similar numbers, but under often different conditions), but also people who had similar career paths and arcs to him. A guy who was great at age 21, and done by age 30 wouldn't have much value in projecting a relative late bloomer like Thomer, IMHO.

Well, four of these are not very good comps first off. First, Canseco - similar career win shares prior to age 35 (281-256 in Thome's favor) but a very different route there. Canseco peaked at age 23, and after age 26 never did better than 16 WS in a year. Thome's bested 16 every year but one since age 26. From age 28-32 Thome had 141 win shares. Canseco 60. I don't see them as having similar career paths at all. #2 - Schimdt - he's way way too good. Just clocks Thome by every way you look at it. #3 - Reggie. Similar to Schmit, but not quite as dramatic. Schmidt and Jackson both had 360+ win shares by the end of their age 34 season. No one else brakes 330. Last of the non-comp comps, Juan Gone. He only had one year over 25 win shares in a season, and that was at age 23. Thome's had 6 seasons over 25 WS.

That leaves six. Of those, you know who looks like the most similar to Thome? Willie McCvoey. Oh, Thome's not as good, but their careers are earilly similar. Thome came up in his early 20s, assembled 115 WS by the end of his age 27 seasons, and then entered his prime from ages 28-32. He had 30+ win shares most seasons in that period, with his age 29 campaign being the worst in that stretch. Age age 33, he declined and missed more games than he had in a number of years. At age 34 he fell apart and had his worst year ever.

McCovey came up in his early 20s, assembled 118 WS by the end of his age 27 seasons, and then entered his prime from ages 28-32. He had 30+ win shares most seasons in that period, with his age 29 campaign being the worst in that stretch. Age age 33, he declined and missed more games than he had in a number of years. At age 34 he fell apart and had his worst year ever.

That was neat, all I had to done was copy and change the name "Thome" to "McCovey" and "115" to "118."

Sure, there are key differences. McCovery was MUCH better in his prime than Thome - 164 WS to 141, but their career path is remarkably similar.

What did McCovey do from ages 35-7 (the years the Sox have Thome)? He bounced back, but was never as good. He logged in 22-25-16 win shares playing in about 1/4th of his team's games and hitting 20some homers a year. Figure that since he's better than Thome, you'd expect Peoria Boy to do a little worse, based on previous track records.

FWIW, Stargell's a nice comp (8 win share difference through age 34) , but an even later bloomer than Thome. His best two-year period was ages 33-34, when Thome was falling apart. He'd later fall off plenty (ages 36-7) and then right his ship (ages 38-39). McGrifff's got the third closest win shares of the six through age 34 (McCovey's second closest). An interesting comp, but he was never as good as Thome was in his prime. McGriff, like Thome, slacked off in his ages 33-34 campaigns - the worst McGriff would have from ages 24-38; and came back to have a few fine campaings. Killebrew's not as good a comp because he's considerably better, and he never had the drastic fall off. He fell off some at age 32 only to come back beter than every, but it's sandwhiched right between his two best win share seasons.

Thomas and Snider are better comps than Canseco, Gone, Schmidt, & Jackson, but still not very good comps. The primes of both were far better than Thome's, and these two had the best pre-age-35 career win shares of anyone aside from Schmidt & Jackson. Snider never bounced back after falling down in a decline that was largely aided by a change in park. Thomas bounced back a little and then got reinjured.

I'd say, unless Thome's injury turns out to be chronic, that he should be able to have a few 20-25 win share campaigns up his sleeve. At least that's what my interpretation of this info leads me to believe.

Gio was supposed to be the top prep-lefty in the '04 draft, a probable top 15 pick. He slipped to the Sox at #38 because he didn't pitch at the end of the season. -- When he was drafted, the Sox left their mic on for too long on the conference call and you could hear one of the scouts (or somebody) say something like "Wow, we stole that one. He could be one of the best pitchers in the SALly league right now"

Anthony,
I actually agree with your findings. I would say that a .921, .894, .865 OPS trend is about right. A .921 OPS would have been 8th in the AL last year, an .894 OPS would have been 12th. I don't expect Thome to post 1.000 OPS although he could. But for $8 million a year that's pretty good. As far as his health I feel confident that the White Sox doctors have fully evaluated his back and elbow and found him healthy. We shall see.

Let me say one more thing here. I wish to congratulate Kenny Williams for finally picking up a guy that knows how to draw walks and hit for power. While I might quibble about whether Thome, assuming he's healthy, will be very good or merely good for half or more of this contract, I'm glad to have a guy in the middle of the order who can hit for power from the left-hand side and get on base without swinging the bat. While I would have liked to have had a guy that is at least five years younger than Thome, frankly, there aren't that many of those guys lying around (only Overbay and Nick Johnson, both whom come with caveats, could be fairly easily had).

Further, assuming the Sox resign Konerko (which I think they will) they essentially had to spend to spend this money on the designated hitter position. I mean, they could have gotten all creative and traded someone like Crede or Dye and spent money at those positions but, as it stood, they had one big hole in their lineup and money to spare from the eliminated Thomas/Everett obligations.

Finally, while I hate to part with minor leaguers to get a 35-year old, this organization has not traded a minor leaguer who went on to accomplish anything since . . . gee, I don't know, when. I guess you'd have to go back to 1993-94 to the trades of Ron Coomer and Brian Boehringer (neither of whom turned out to be all that good) to find a Sox farmhand that succeeded after being traded away the organization. That's a pretty amazing streak. Someone in Sox scouting (or a lot of people) have certainly been doing something right.

Seems like the White Sox have avoided giving up prospects except for guys who eventually become decent to good relievers, of which they've given up quite a few (but then a lot of teams gave up on Borowski and Donnelly before they finally made their mark).

Of course, that list just shows that the White Sox can't draft players who can contribute significantly at the major league level (with the exception of Rowand and possibly Crede). I mean, the Pirates have lost guys on Rule 5 that are better than any of the position players on that list.

I mean, the Pirates have lost guys on Rule 5 that are better than any of the position players on that list.

Well I didn't list Lee, Ordonez, Durham and Thomas since they spent a significant amount of time in the big leagues for the White Sox. Same with Mark Buerhle and Mike Sirotka.

Then there's borderliners like Jeff Abbott, Mario Valdez, Jeff Liefer, Mark Johnson and Greg Norton. Guys who stuck around for a while but never quite established themselves as more than end of the bench MLBers.

For the White Sox: Would you rather pay Rowand 3/$8ish or Thome 3/$22 mil."

I don't think that's quite it. I'd say it's like this:

Option 1: Pay $25 million to Anderson (CF) and Thome (DH) over the next 3 years (assuming $24 million paid to Thome, $1 million paid to Anderson)

OR

Option 2: Pay about $8 million to Rowand (CF) over the next 2 years, and some amount to a DH over the next 3 years (plus a CF in '08 -- Rowand is only signed for two more years)

The issue is whether the White Sox, under Option 2, could have found another DH who (1) will make $17 million or less over the next three years and (2) could combine with Rowand (and the '08 CF) to produce more offense than Anderson + Thome over the next three years.

Of course, the above is still a oversimplification that ignores factors like the defensive of Anderson vs. Rowand, the marketing advantage of acquiring Thome, and the value of the prospects involved.

It's all about the money. The Sox have Thome at $6.5 million a year, well BELOW market salary for a hitter of his caliber if he returns to form. They also exchanged Rowand (who is set to make FIVE million) for Anderson. So the net addition is around $2 million for a good chance at a MAJOR offensive upgrade.
It's time Kenny Williams gets his due for a pretty darn creative MONEYBALL approach. Other GMs dump their veterans for prospects, win exactly ZERO playoff series, and are hailed as geniuses. Kenny gets veterans to plug holes using a moneyball approach, and he's an idiot. Sure Philly got a good deal. And, yes, I think Kenny could bargain a little tougher and get by by giving up a little less. Mark Shapiro begain reshaping Cleveland 4 years ago. Well, so did Kenny except that the Sox have finished ahead of Cleveland for 4 straight years AND have a ring. So Shapiro is named executive of the year. Just unbelievable.
Even last year's Pods trade, some people are giving grudging admission that money had something to do with it. It had EVERYTHING to do with it (not to mention that Lee isn't a great hitter anyway). Further, Pods plugged a GAPING hole for the Sox - he's an average lead-off hitter for a team that was absolutely horrible at the lead-off position for years.

I wasn't listing guys that the Sox produced, Voros, just those that they traded away who later went on to be a success. So, guys like Menechino and Saenz who were lost in minor league drafts didn't fit into my criteria. Wickman was traded away before Boehringer in 1994, which was a far back as I went.

I don't know why I brain-cramped on Kip Wells. He's hasn't been terribly good but four years and 700 innings of a bit better than league average baseball (including two pretty darn good years, one of which might have pushed the Sox into the playoffs) more than meet my criteria.

Still, it's a good list and KW, since he was GM or Director of Minor League Operations and V.P. of Player Development from 1996-2001, deserves a good deal of the credit for this area of the team's successes.

Kip Wells doesn't exactly fit the definition of "minor leaguer". At the time he was traded, he had made 40 starts over the previous two seasons for the White Sox (plus 20 relief appearances after being pulled from the rotation in 2001).