Pundits are already predicting that Mitt Romney's vice presidential pick, Rep. Paul Ryan, will damage, if not doom, Romney's chances of winning the largest swing state.

(Romney was scheduled to take his bus tour to Florida on Monday, with Ryan coming later in the week for a Tampa fundraiser.)

First, we should acknowledge the research showing a VP pick has little effect on the outcome of a presidential race. But the race is too close to call in Florida, and even small decisions could mean the difference between victory and defeat in the state.

So, will Ryan help or hurt Romney? The answer is different for Florida's different GOP constituencies.

1. Cuban-Americans:

During the lead-up to Florida's Republican primary, Romney made a speech in south Florida criticizing President Obama's Cuba policy — especially lifting some travel restrictions and allowing more cultural exchanges.

Polls show Florida seniors favoring Romney. So, how will the retiree and soon-to-be retiree set react to Ryan, the 42-year-old representative from Wisconsin?

Remember, Ryan was at the forefront of President George W. Bush's failed plan on Social Security — which would have allowed participants to invest in the stock market. Not to mention Ryan's more recent plan for Medicare — which, depending on your politics, either saves the program through competition, or turns it into a voucher system to "push grandma off a cliff."

A CNN poll last summer showed that a majority of voters oppose the Ryan proposal — and seniors as a group were even more against it. That has led some pundits to say Romney just handed Florida to Obama.

But there's at least one example that indicates otherwise: Rubio.

In 2010, Rubio was in a tough race against then-Gov. Charlie Crist for the U.S. Senate. Crist made a big issue of Rubio's support for making changes to Social Security and Medicare. But Rubio won that race by a huge margin, including among seniors.

One more thing — Romney is not likely to cede the Medicare issue to Obama.

He already has been criticizing Obama on what he calls $700 billion in Medicare reductions under the Affordable Care Act. He promised to protect Medicare again in his speech introducing Ryan.

It all suggests Social Security and Medicare reform are no longer the third rail of politics in Florida — or perhaps the rail is losing its shock value.