Americans Give Even Odds on Presidential Horse Race

It is well known that Americans are divided politically in many
ways, including their evaluations of the job George W. Bush is
doing as president, their views on the Iraq war, and their choice
for president in this fall's election. But Americans are also
divided in their predictions about who will win the election. While
it is typical for views on who will win to be strongly influenced
by partisanship, the data show that Democrats are much more
optimistic about John Kerry's chances of winning the election than
they were about Al Gore's chances in 2000, when he won the popular
vote and narrowly lost the electoral vote.

A recent CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll, conducted
immediately after the Democratic convention, finds 47% of Americans
predicting a Kerry win, 47% a Bush win, and 6% without an opinion*.
When the question was asked in March, the public was more likely to
think Bush would win -- with 52% predicting a Bush victory and 42%
a Kerry victory.

Generally speaking, what Americans presumably would
like to happen strongly influences their predictions of what
will happen. Specifically, 80% of Republicans believe
Republican candidate Bush will win and 79% of Democrats say
Democratic candidate Kerry will win. Independents are equally
divided, with 46% predicting Kerry and 45% Bush**.

Since March, Democrats have grown somewhat more optimistic about
Kerry's victory chances. At that time, 71% thought Kerry would win,
compared with the 79% figure today. Republicans are about as
optimistic about a Bush win now as they were in March (82%).

Historical Election Predictions

Gallup asked Americans to predict the election winner several
times in 2000 and once in 1996. In the five times the question was
asked in 2000, Americans predicted a Bush victory four times, only
predicting a Gore victory when he surged ahead in the polls in
September 2000. This is somewhat surprising given how close the
election ultimately turned out to be. In 1996, a CNN/USA
Today/Gallup poll of registered voters showed Americans
overwhelmingly believing Bill Clinton would defeat Bob Dole, which
he did.

Partisan leanings have always been apparent in the data.
However, Democrats appear to be much more optimistic about Kerry's
chances of winning than they were about Gore's at several points in
the campaign, including after the Democratic convention.
Interestingly, Democrats are only slightly less optimistic about
Kerry's chances now than they were about Clinton's in 1996, when he
led Dole by comfortable margins throughout the campaign.
Eighty-eight percent of Democratic registered voters thought
Clinton would win in 1996, compared with 79% who think Kerry will
win this year.

In polls conducted in March, June, and late August 2000, fewer
than 6 in 10 Democrats believed Gore would beat Bush. And in an
early August poll, conducted immediately after the Republican
convention, more Democrats actually thought Bush (50%) would win
than thought Gore would win (44%).

Only in September 2000, when Gore led Bush by five or more
points for a week's worth of CNN/USA Today/Gallup tracking
poll results, did Democrats show a strong belief that Gore would
win (76% of registered Democratic voters thought he would win at
that time). In comparison, at least 7 in 10 Republican registered
voters thought Bush would win in all polls, except the September
poll.

Predictions of the 2000 Election Winner, Gallup
Polls

Poll

Overall

Republicans

Democrats

Independents

Mar 10-12, 2000

Bush

48%

71%

29%

47%

Gore

38%

19%

58%

35%

No opinion

14%

10%

13%

18%

Jun 6-7, 2000

Bush

53%

76%

36%

48%

Gore

35%

16%

55%

34%

No opinion

12%

8%

9%

18%

Aug 4-5, 2000

Bush

70%

88%

50%

71%

Gore

23%

7%

44%

20%

No opinion

7%

5%

6%

9%

Aug 24-27, 2000

Bush

47%

72%

27%

46%

Gore

36%

16%

56%

31%

No opinion

17%

12%

17%

23%

Sep 15-17, 2000 (registered voters)

Bush

36%

59%

15%

36%

Gore

53%

27%

76%

48%

No opinion

11%

14%

9%

16%

In 1996, 88% of Democratic registered voters believed Clinton
would win. In that poll, Republican registered voters were
generally divided in their views of who would win, but slightly
more said they thought Dole (47%) would win than thought Clinton
(44%) would.

Bottom Line

Americans overall do not have a consensus on who is likely to
win the election this November, though most believe their party's
nominee will emerge victorious.

*Results are based on telephone interviews with 1,518
national adults, aged 18 and older, conducted July 30-Aug. 1,
2004. For results based on this sample, one can say with 95%
confidence that the maximum margin of error attributable to
sampling is ±3 percentage points.

**Results for the samples of 564 Republicans, 525 Democrats,
and 416 independents each have a maximum margin of sampling error
of ±5 percentage points.

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