This is a good point. I'm a PT supporter and defender. One of my main arguments against PT Haters is the PT was commercial success. Together they made hundreds of millions of dollars. That's not even counting the sales of merchandise: games, shirts, toys, book, DVDs, etc, etc, etc.

It will be 100% a commercial success

As far as critical failure, I'm giving it a 50%-75% Chance of failure. Yes, I said FAILURE. I go into detail in the thread "Why the odds are "3720 to 1" you'll actually like EP7". However the quick version it: Between ROTJ and TPM people had 17 years to "envision" what "their" idea of the PERFECT Star Wars sequel would be like. Obviously the odds were extremely slim that your vision of what you'd is what Lucas gave you. I don't see it being any different this time around. This time Abrams will be thrown under the bus. There is a percentage of people that will go into it with an open mind, but I suspect just as many will have TOO high of expectations, just like with the PT

I don't see it doing that well with critics regardless, remember the OT is famous for being bashed by critics and beloved by moviegoers. These days the OT is viewed by critics with more reverence and the PT is still trashed, it is possible that maybe 10 years after the ST critics will look back and realise it is better than they first realised.

There's failure, which won't happen, and then there is not reaching expectations. The expectations are too high, and if it is compared to another movie that comes out that summer that outgrosses it, the press will exaggerate the difference like some kind of sports competition and that can have a negative impact on the whole thing.

I'm a little nervous about Disney's The Lone Ranger since that's supposed to have a huge budget as well, and it was even cancelled for a time because of budget overruns.

Just some more proof that Disney should never touch Star Wars. I'm a Lone Ranger fan from way back. Watched the TV shows in syndication, had the original comic book explaining how The Lone Ranger came to be, had the pistols and even had The Lone Ranger, Silver, Tonto and Scout as a kid. To see Johnny Depp playing Tonto is an extreme insult to me. What about authenticity? I know that back in the day, the moviemakers used to use caucasions with heavy makeup in Native American roles, but that stigma has been long since removed. Are you going to tell me that Disney couldn't find any Native American actor to place in that role? Because, what it looks like to me...especially since the makers of Pirates of the Carribean had a hand in making The Lone Ranger...is that Depp was such a hit as Jack Sparrow, they decided they would cast him in the role of Tonto and not even bother looking for someone else. Also, it looks as if there are going to be a lot of comedic moments in this film - The Lone Ranger was far from ever being classified as a comedy.

That being said, I'm scared that Star Wars under Disney will become a parody of its former self, with big name actors cast in roles simply because they are liked and not because they fit the part. Never mind the fact that they have JJ Abrams as the director - with so many projects on this man's plate, how good do you think this movie is going to be. He can't possibly devote his entire attention to it. Sigh!!

Adjusted for inflation AOTC and ROTS aren't even close to being in the same box office league as the real Star Wars movies. In terms of commercial success, there are two authentic Star Wars movies, two pretenders, and two FAILS.

Adjusted for inflation ANH destroys Avatar even though, it's going to be hard to ever top those movies.

I'm a little nervous about Disney's The Lone Ranger since that's supposed to have a huge budget as well, and it was even cancelled for a time because of budget overruns.

Just some more proof that Disney should never touch Star Wars. I'm a Lone Ranger fan from way back. Watched the TV shows in syndication, had the original comic book explaining how The Lone Ranger came to be, had the pistols and even had The Lone Ranger, Silver, Tonto and Scout as a kid. To see Johnny Depp playing Tonto is an extreme insult to me. What about authenticity? I know that back in the day, the moviemakers used to use caucasions with heavy makeup in Native American roles, but that stigma has been long since removed. Are you going to tell me that Disney couldn't find any Native American actor to place in that role? Because, what it looks like to me...especially since the makers of Pirates of the Carribean had a hand in making The Lone Ranger...is that Depp was such a hit as Jack Sparrow, they decided they would cast him in the role of Tonto and not even bother looking for someone else. Also, it looks as if there are going to be a lot of comedic moments in this film - The Lone Ranger was far from ever being classified as a comedy.

That being said, I'm scared that Star Wars under Disney will become a parody of its former self, with big name actors cast in roles simply because they are liked and not because they fit the part. Never mind the fact that they have JJ Abrams as the director - with so many projects on this man's plate, how good do you think this movie is going to be. He can't possibly devote his entire attention to it. Sigh!!

Then you don't understand how Episode VII is being made. LucasFilm is making Star Wars Episode VII. They are incharge of writing, directing, casting, and managing the films development. Disney is just footing the bill and giving it the hands off approach it gave Marvel with the Avengers. All evidence points to this. Why would Disney waste 4 billion and go through the process of making a deal to buy LFL if they're just going to make the movie and micromanage every aspect? Why bother to get George Lucas as pretty much the primary consultant? What's more, Bad Robot is also helping out.

Odds are, it won't even have the Disney logo infront of it, Marvel films don't.

Critical failure? Possible. Commercial failure? Incredibly unlikely. Even if it’s a very bad film, it will still break a billion at the worldwide box-office. Of course, if it is generally thought of as a disappointment then Episode 8 is sure to take a hit.

It's hard for a movie like this to fail commercially but the cult of box office analysts will dissect and compare every daily gross and be quick to spread word of it not being a success just because its midnight showing makes five dollars less than another movie's midnight showing, and then from that doofuses will kick it around saying "I heard it sucked." I really can't stand the culture of box office reporting.
Furthermore, the critics will be so ready to pounce they've probably already drafted their reviews.

It's like politics; petty, tribalistic, superficial, and everyone has their pre-programmed assumptions.

Almost impossible for it to fail commercially unless they go overboard on the budget. Star wars is a house hold name...its just too big and well known many people will see it simply because its popular.

With Abrams on board I am much more optimistic than I was at first when Disney announced that it would make a new trilogy. The expectations are high even though we know nothing of the films themselves yet because this is STAR WARS. J. J. Abrams is no fool and I am quite sure he understand the recipes of a good SW film. He will surround himself with worthy people and have George Lucas clobe-by if he needs advices. Lucasfilm as it's reputation to maintain and will mobilize all it's ressources on the making of the films but also on the promotions. I am positive right now, Kathleen Kennedy as impressed me so far and all seems under control. Chances are we we'll get some good SW in 2015 or 2016.

Then you don't understand how Episode VII is being made. LucasFilm is making Star Wars Episode VII. They are incharge of writing, directing, casting, and managing the films development. Disney is just footing the bill and giving it the hands off approach it gave Marvel with the Avengers. All evidence points to this. Why would Disney waste 4 billion and go through the process of making a deal to buy LFL if they're just going to make the movie and micromanage every aspect? Why bother to get George Lucas as pretty much the primary consultant? What's more, Bad Robot is also helping out.

Odds are, it won't even have the Disney logo infront of it, Marvel films don't.

Honestly, I hope you're right, but I have never in this lifetime seen Disney foot the bill for anything that they had no say in. And, since Disney is footing the bill, Lucasfilm can write a great movie and Disney can scrap the whole idea if they think it doesn't fit their image of what the movie should be like. Or don't we remember all the trouble George Lucas went through with other companies telling him how his movies should look. It's why he formed his own company in the first place - so he wouldn't have to answer to 20th Century Fox, etc.

Don't get me wrong - I really want a great Star Wars film in Episode VII and I really hope that Disney will offer up the hands off touch, but I just don't see that happening with their money and franchise name on the line.

VII has the potential to be the highest grossing film ever but not a chance of the highest attendance. Anything less than defeating Avatars gross (if a 3D release) will be a commercial failure in my eyes. Why do I think it can beat Avatars gross? It is an established property which Avatar wasn't. There are several generations waiting to take their children and grandchildren in anticipation of reliving 77, 99, 05. It'll have a far bigger promotional push. Ticket prices will be far higher by 15/16. It will get excellent reviews???????? Everyone who went to see Avatar will potentially go and see VII but they'll bring their kids too.

I think that it has a good chance of being a commercial success especially if JJ is judged to have improved the acting.

However, if it is a failure then a budget cut for VIII and IX. i can't see the last two films in trilogy being cancelled but I can see a flood of cheap spin offs to recoup the $$$$$ and further down the line a reboot of the whole saga.

Those to "cut their teeth" on the Prequels are starting to have children. For this reason alone, a new generation will be coming up to participate in SW fandom. I just don't see a flop here, even if the movie sucks. Point being, the SW name could probably carry more weight than the actual story of VII.

Then you don't understand how Episode VII is being made. LucasFilm is making Star Wars Episode VII. They are incharge of writing, directing, casting, and managing the films development. Disney is just footing the bill and giving it the hands off approach it gave Marvel with the Avengers. All evidence points to this. Why would Disney waste 4 billion and go through the process of making a deal to buy LFL if they're just going to make the movie and micromanage every aspect? Why bother to get George Lucas as pretty much the primary consultant? What's more, Bad Robot is also helping out.

Odds are, it won't even have the Disney logo infront of it, Marvel films don't.

Honestly, I hope you're right, but I have never in this lifetime seen Disney foot the bill for anything that they had no say in. And, since Disney is footing the bill, Lucasfilm can write a great movie and Disney can scrap the whole idea if they think it doesn't fit their image of what the movie should be like. Or don't we remember all the trouble George Lucas went through with other companies telling him how his movies should look. It's why he formed his own company in the first place - so he wouldn't have to answer to 20th Century Fox, etc.

Don't get me wrong - I really want a great Star Wars film in Episode VII and I really hope that Disney will offer up the hands off touch, but I just don't see that happening with their money and franchise name on the line.

Again, why would they bother buying a company for 4 billion dollars, let LucasFilm hire a Oscar winning writer, only to pretty much rewrite everything and end up taking control of the development of the movie? I will point again to the Marvel experiment that has worked tremendously, by letting them take a mature and worthy approach - The Avengers was a huge success both critically and commercially, because they didn't micromange it.

Those to "cut their teeth" on the Prequels are starting to have children.

Man, does that ever make me feel old.

I agree with most people here - Episode VII is highly unlikely to be a financial failure. The Star Wars buzz will be a huge draw. Critical reception? Well, Ardnt and Abrams are both pros, but even the best filmmakers have their duds. The ST will be in a better place than the PT - people want to like it, and it only has to be a minor improvement on the prequels to be lauded with praise. Heck, not even an improvement, just more OT feeling than PT. Kind of like how The Amazing Spider-Man only had to not have dancing in it for some fans to act like it was up there with The Godfather.

It's hard for a movie like this to fail commercially but the cult of box office analysts will dissect and compare every daily gross and be quick to spread word of it not being a success just because its midnight showing makes five dollars less than another movie's midnight showing, and then from that doofuses will kick it around saying "I heard it sucked." I really can't stand the culture of box office reporting.
Furthermore, the critics will be so ready to pounce they've probably already drafted their reviews.

It's like politics; petty, tribalistic, superficial, and everyone has their pre-programmed assumptions.

Just because a movie is a great success financially, doesn't mean it's a good movie. Fans will go see it because we will see anything Star Wars, but, as history has proven, that doesn't always mean we'll like what we see. That's why they'll sink so much money into it and get directors who have won awards, etc., because it's a no lose situation for Disney financially.

Why else would we watch the Star Wars Christmas Special - sure, it sucked, but we're fans of Star Wars and why wouldn't we see it?