SD 48 – Bleeding Heartlandhttp://www.bleedingheartland.com
A community blog about Iowa politicsFri, 09 Dec 2016 15:45:06 +0000en-UShourly1https://wordpress.org/?v=4.6.1Republicans outspending Democrats in most Iowa Senate battlegroundshttp://www.bleedingheartland.com/2016/11/05/republicans-outspending-democrats-in-most-iowa-senate-battlegrounds/
http://www.bleedingheartland.com/2016/11/05/republicans-outspending-democrats-in-most-iowa-senate-battlegrounds/#respondSat, 05 Nov 2016 05:27:13 +0000http://www.bleedingheartland.com/?p=24892Iowa House and Senate candidates were required to file their last pre-election campaign finance reports on Friday. In stark contrast to four years ago, Republicans are outspending Democrats in most of the contested state Senate districts. (I’ll address spending in the key Iowa House races in a different post.)

Currently, there are 25 Senate Democrats, 23 Republicans, and one independent. If former GOP Senator David Johnson makes good on his promise to remain an independent in 2017, and Democrats win the December special election to replace the late Senator Joe Seng, Republicans would need to pick up three seats to gain control of the upper chamber for the first time since 2004.

I enclose below in-kind contribution figures for the Senate districts expected to be in play next Tuesday. Candidates running elsewhere did not report large in-kind contributions from their respective parties.

You can find all of the November 4 reports from Iowa legislative candidates here; the October 19 reports are here.

At this point in an Iowa legislative race, the Schedule E forms on “In-Kind Contributions” are the most revealing, because most of the spending on advertising and direct mail comes from Democratic and Republican leadership funds, rather than from candidates’ campaign accounts.

Either the Iowa Democratic Party or the Senate Majority Fund provide most in-kind contributions to Democratic candidates, while the “Republican Party of Iowa and its Eisenhower Club” spends the most on behalf of GOP candidates. For the remainder of this post, “Iowa GOP” refers to the Republican Party of Iowa and its Eisenhower Club.

Technically, Iowa law prohibits candidates from transferring money they raise to another candidate. Both parties get around that restriction by having legislative leaders raise most of the money for key races and donate it to state party funds. The party then turns around and spends the cash in the targeted House or Senate districts.

Senate Minority Leader Bill Dix is not up for re-election, so he was not required to file campaign finance reports on May 19, July 19, October 19, or November 4. Consequently, we can’t see how much he has transferred to the Iowa GOP this year. The same is true for Senate Minority Whip Jack Whitver. He represents a wealthy part of the state (Ankeny), so may have brought in a lot of money this year. But like Dix, he won’t be required to report his fundraising or expenditures until January 2017.

UPDATE/CORRECTION: Although senators not up for re-election this year don’t have to submit full disclosure forms, I forgot that contributions to state party organizations would be visible on the parties’ reports to the Iowa Ethics and Campaign Disclosure Board. The October 19 disclosure from the Republican Party of Iowa and its Eisenhower Club shows four contributions from Dix’s campaign committee, totaling $1,441,000. Whitver’s committee made two donations totaling $125,000. Political parties don’t have to file reports on the Friday preceding the general election the way candidates do, so we can’t determine how much money GOP Senate leaders transferred after October 19. We can say that Dix and Whitver provided as least six times as many dollars for crucial races as the previous Senate caucus leaders, Jerry Behn and Brad Zaun, made available in 2012.

Danielson’s district covers Cedar Falls and parts of Waterloo, an area including the University of Northern Iowa, where Donald Trump probably hurts down-ballot GOP candidates. I would guess internal polling showed this race wasn’t a good pickup opportunity. In addition, Danielson has enjoyed a fairly large lead in absentee ballot returns these past few weeks.

Schoenjahn won his first state Senate race in 2004. It’s rare for an entrenched Iowa legislative incumbent to be so heavily outspent in a re-election bid.

Senate district 34

Republicans conceded this district in 2012. Senator Liz Mathis is unusually popular and well-known, thanks to her years of work as a local newscaster. This year, GOP leaders spent heavily on negative advertising and direct mail soon after Labor Day. They appear to have accepted defeat a few weeks ago.

Republicans had a weak candidate here in 2012 and didn’t invest much in her campaign. They are making a big play for this seat now. Challenger Jeff Edler was running tv ads in the Des Moines market for approximately a month before Democratic Senator Sodders. Even now, I see two or three misleading Elder hit pieces about a “spending spree” for every commercial promoting Sodders.

First-term Senator Chris Brase has long been seen as the most vulnerable Democratic incumbent in the upper chamber, partly because Republicans recruited former State Representative Mark Lofgren to run against him. Both campaigns have been working hard on GOTV and have spent heavily on mail and paid advertising.

]]>http://www.bleedingheartland.com/2016/11/05/republicans-outspending-democrats-in-most-iowa-senate-battlegrounds/feed/0IA-01 Democratic candidate news rounduphttp://www.bleedingheartland.com/2015/01/29/ia-01-democratic-candidate-news-roundup/
http://www.bleedingheartland.com/2015/01/29/ia-01-democratic-candidate-news-roundup/#commentsMon, 30 Nov -0001 00:00:00 +0000http://bleedingheartland.dev/diary/7362/reported several days ago that Ravi Patel "is assembling campaign operatives and meeting with influential donors in Eastern Iowa in preparation for the run." He is best known as principal and president of Hawkeye Hotels, a fast-growing company his parents established. Pat Rynard wrote on the Iowa Starting Line blog that Patel "has built connections from holding many fundraisers for Democratic candidates" and is "an entrepreneur involved in many startup businesses."

If he runs for Congress, Patel told the Daily Iowan that his campaign "would be data-driven and heavy on social media." His biggest potential weakness would probably be his youth (current age: 29). Iowans have nominated some young candidates who faced competitive primaries against more experienced rivals, most recently Ben Lange, the GOP's 2012 nominee in IA-01. But despite a lot of excitement on social media, State Representative Anesa Kajtazovic didn't make much headway with IA-01 Democratic voters, finishing fourth in the 2014 primary. Anecdotally, many Democrats liked Kajtazovic but questioned whether she had enough experience for the job she was seeking. Patel would also be competing against others who have more longstanding ties to the district. Although he owns a home in Cedar Rapids now, he has spent most of his life in either Burlington or Iowa City, which are located in the second Congressional district.

The front-runner in the Democratic primary remains Cedar Rapids City Council member Monica Vernon, who last week added her first labor union endorsement to the long list of sate legislators backing her second bid for Congress. After the jump I've posted the press release announcing the Teamsters Local 238 endorsement of Vernon. That local did not endorse in the 2014 primary to represent IA-01, but two other Teamsters locals backed the eventual winner Pat Murphy. Note: the press release mentions that Teamsters Local 238 has approximately 6,000 members. A representative for the union told me that between 2,000 and 2,500 of those members live in the IA-01 counties.

Any comments about the IA-01 race are welcome in this thread. Republican blogger Craig Robinson pointed out recently that GOP incumbent Rod Blum will benefit tremendously from having U.S. Senator Chuck Grassley on the ballot in 2016.

It's also worth noting that at least three and perhaps as many as six battleground Iowa Senate races will be located within IA-01 next year. State Senator Jeff Danielson will seek a fourth term in Senate district 30, covering parts of Waterloo and Cedar Falls; he faced well-funded challengers in his last two re-election campaigns. State Senator Mary Jo Wilhelm won by just 126 votes in Senate district 26 in 2012. I expect the GOP to target that district, half of which is in IA-01 and half in IA-04. Republicans are less likely to mount a serious challenge against either State Senator Liz Mathis in Senate district 34 or State Senator Brian Schoenjahn in Senate district 32, but a surprise retirement would instantly make either of those races competitive. Meanwhile, Democrats are likely to target Senate district 28, where GOP State Senator Mike Breitbach won by only 17 votes in 2012. First-term Senator Dan Zumbach could also face a serious challenger in Senate district 48. After the jump I've posted a map showing all the Iowa Senate district lines. UPDATE: Perhaps I should also have mentioned Democratic State Senator Steve Sodders (SD-36) and Republican Tim Kapucian (SD-38), who will be up for re-election in 2016 as well in counties that are part of IA-01. I haven't heard of potentially strong challengers in either Iowa Senate district, but that could change before next spring.]]>

Excerpt from a January 22 Vernon for Congress press release:

TEAMSTERS LOCAL 238 PROUD TO ENDORSE MONICA VERNON FOR CONGRESS IN IOWA’S FIRST DISTRICT

Gary Dunham, President of Local 238 of Cedar Rapids, said, “Monica has been a driving force in the re-building of Cedar Rapids after the floods of 2008. She has stood strong with the Teamsters on issues like supporting collective bargaining and opposing fast track. We are proud to support her in her run for congress in 2016.”

For more information visit: www.monicavernonforcongress.com

“I am thrilled to have the backing of the Teamsters Local 238,” Vernon said. “Our labor workforce is the backbone of our local economy and that’s why I’ve been proud to work side by side with them in rebuilding our community and looking towards the jobs and opportunities of the future. I stand strong on issues we each care about; my support of collective bargaining and paid leave and my opposition to fast track. With labor’s partnership we’ll win back this district in 2016.”

Local 238 is the largest local union in the state of Iowa with over 6,000 members in both the private and public sector, including warehouse, food processing, UPS and manufacturing, as well as city and county employees. Local 238 is also the largest union of law enforcement in the state.

Woven into the fabric of Republican history is progressivism and part and parcel with Democratic history, from the Revolution until the New Deal, was conservative, small government, philosophy. Political parties and socio-political philosophies do not share continuous and consistent histories and one need only to go back 150 years to the creation of the modern Republican Party to realize that Republicans embraced progressivism in their purpose to end slavery, while, in fact, it was Democrats who opposed Emancipation and held on to conservative values with regard to state rights.

So today when one party holds the philosophical guidance of conservatism or liberalism over its head to declare a consistent connection throughout history, it is sheer folly. While our political affiliations may appear to be extensions of our political-philosophical beliefs, there is no core set of principles that exist within any of our political “disciplines.”

I offer this with the hope that, perhaps, some of the vitriol in our disagreements could be eliminated. One side rarely speaks of the other, be it Republicans concerning Democrats or Liberals with regard to Conservatives, without an angry tone or sarcastic dismissal of all they have brought to the policy table.

Difficult as it may be to accept, or even comprehend….Republicans are responsible for much of our country’s progressive movements that many Republicans hold in contempt today.

And Democrats have in our history fought against some of the social reforms that they now embrace.

So…let’s get over ourselves.

]]>http://www.bleedingheartland.com/2015/01/29/ia-01-democratic-candidate-news-roundup/feed/3Democratic and Republican party spending in the Iowa Senate raceshttp://www.bleedingheartland.com/2012/11/05/democratic-and-republican-party-spending-in-the-iowa-senate-races/
http://www.bleedingheartland.com/2012/11/05/democratic-and-republican-party-spending-in-the-iowa-senate-races/#respondMon, 30 Nov -0001 00:00:00 +0000http://bleedingheartland.dev/diary/5833/After the jump I've enclosed in-kind contribution figures for the Senate districts expected to be in play tomorrow. Candidates running in other Senate races did not report large in-kind contributions from their respective parties.]]>Republican candidates for the Iowa Senate received the bulk of their in-kind contributions from the “Republican Party of Iowa and its Eisenhower Club.” For brevity, I’m calling that the Iowa GOP below. Senate Minority Leader Jerry Behn reported giving $60,000 to the state party on his October 19 filing and more than $185,000 to the party on his November 2 filing. Senate Minority Whip Brad Zaun gave just $5,000 to the Polk County Republican Party and $11,500 to his party’s Senate majority fund–a heck of a lot less than I’d expect for an ambitious politician. Keep in mind that Zaun represents wealthy precincts in Urbandale and doesn’t have a general election opponent this year. I thought he would follow the example of his Senate colleague Bill Dix, who spread his campaign cash around to several GOP Senate challengers in the fall of 2010.

Democratic candidates for the Iowa Senate received the bulk of their in-kind contributions from the Iowa Senate Majority Fund or from the Iowa Democratic Party. Senate Majority Leader Mike Gronstal donated more than $900,000 from his Senate campaign account to the state party.

Merlin Bartz reported $35,605.84 from the Iowa GOP (October 19 disclosure) and $65,462.05 from the Iowa GOP plus $7,545.47 from the Team Iowa PAC (November 2 disclosure). Nick Ryan runs the Team Iowa PAC; he is better known to Bleeding Heartland readers as the leader of the 501(c)4 group American Future Fund.

]]>http://www.bleedingheartland.com/2012/11/05/democratic-and-republican-party-spending-in-the-iowa-senate-races/feed/0Four strategies for interest group Iowa legislative endorsementshttp://www.bleedingheartland.com/2012/11/05/four-strategies-for-interest-group-iowa-legislative-endorsements/
http://www.bleedingheartland.com/2012/11/05/four-strategies-for-interest-group-iowa-legislative-endorsements/#respondMon, 30 Nov -0001 00:00:00 +0000http://bleedingheartland.dev/diary/5831/Iowa's influential political action committees and advocacy groups have very different ways of getting involved in the state legislative campaign. Follow me after the jump for examples of four distinct strategies.]]>Bipartisan, focused on protecting incumbents

For many corporate or industry-aligned PACs, giving money to elected officials in both parties is an insurance policy. We see the same phenomenon in Iowa as some organizations endorse numerous state representatives and senators from both parties for re-election. Two good examples come to mind: the Iowa Corn Growers Association PAC and the Iowa Credit Unions League.

Some of those incumbents are unopposed, while others are fighting for their political lives. Many have been members of agriculture and/or appropriations committees in the Iowa House or Senate during the past two years.

Support is not determined by party affiliation or on political ideology, but rather on where candidates stand on the import issues facing credit unions and their members. In the case of incumbents, it’s based on their voting record on important credit union issues as well as responses to our candidate questionnaire. In the case of challengers and open seat candidates, it’s based on the questionnaire and, many times, in-person conversations with credit union and ICUL staff. The analysis is thorough and substantive.

As a result of this non-political analysis, credit unions are supporting Republicans and Democrats at almost equal levels in 2012. The amount of CUPAC contributions that have been provided to state legislative candidates is very close to 50/50. In short, support is based on policy, not politics.

The Iowa Credit Union PAC has sent direct mail on behalf of three incumbent senators in tough races: Democrat Jeff Danielson (Senate district 30) and Republicans Merlin Bartz (Senate district 26) and Shawn Hamerlinck (Senate district 46). The eye-catching mail pieces advocating for Bartz, Hamerlinck, and Danielson have a similar look and feel. No matter which party gains control of the Iowa Senate, someone in the majority caucus will be particularly grateful to the credit unions.

Bipartisan, but willing to take on unfriendly incumbents

Some interest groups are willing to support any incumbent who supports their agenda, regardless of party. At the same time, they don’t hesitate to endorse challengers to lawmakers who vote against their agenda. The National Rifle Association is a good example. You can view their 2012 endorsements for Iowa here, along with grades for all of the sitting legislators up for re-election. Although the NRA backs a lot more Republicans than Democrats, two Democratic senators (Tom Courtney and Dick Dearden) did receive the group’s seal of approval. Dearden championed the return of dove-hunting to Iowa and has led the charge against restricting dove hunters’ use of lead ammunition.

The NRA isn’t supporting any Iowa House Democrats this year, because the whole House Democratic caucus opposed “stand your ground” legislation during the 2012 session. Many Republican challengers have the NRA’s backing.

But during the 2010 campaign, the NRA endorsed lots of Democratic lawmakers as well as Governor Chet Culver. That year, a Democratic-controlled Iowa House and Senate passed legislation making it easier to obtain a permit to carry a concealed weapon.

Partisan, but mostly leaving incumbents alone

The Iowa Industry PAC, affiliated with the Iowa Association of Business and Industry, is a good example of an interest group with a mostly partisan approach to elections. The Iowa Industry PAC describes itself as “non-partisan,” supporting candidates from both parties. In reality, this group backs only a handful of token Democrats during each election cycle. In 2010, the PAC endorsed only three Democratic senators (two at no risk of losing) and a few House Democrats who had helped block pro-labor legislation.

This year, Brian Quirk and Dave Jacoby are the only Iowa House Democrats to receive the Iowa Industry PAC’s endorsement. Neither has a general election opponent on the ballot (pdf). CORRECTION: The Iowa Industry PAC endorsed seven Democratic Iowa House candidates. Three have no opponent on the ballot (Quirk, Jacoby, and Nancy Dunkel). Two are in districts Democrats should win easily (Helen Miller and Sally Stutsman). The other two are in heavily contested seats (Dan Muhlbauer and Joe Riding).

Meanwhile, only two sitting Senate Democrats received the Iowa Industry PAC’s 2012 endorsement, Liz Mathis and Steve Sodders. A few months ago, political insiders expected both to win re-election, although the Sodders race in Senate district 36 is up in the air.

Whereas the truly bipartisan Iowa Credit Union PAC endorsed many Democrats and Republicans running for open seats, the Iowa Industry PAC endorsed solely mostly Republicans in House and Senate districts lacking an incumbent. (Correction: Riding, Stutsman, and Dunkel are running in open seats.) Clearly this PAC wants Republicans to hold their Iowa House majority and take control of the Iowa Senate.

That said, the Iowa Industry PAC appears less willing to make waves than the NRA. Only two GOP challengers have the PAC’s official endorsement: Matt Reisetter (Danielson’s opponent in Senate district 30) and Allen Burt (running against Mark Smith in House district 71).

For some interest groups, one political party is clearly more in line with the legislative agenda. Those groups can only hope to exercise real influence when that party is in the majority. So, labor unions endorse many Democratic incumbents and some (but not all) challengers to sitting Republicans. That’s not to say a labor union wouldn’t endorse a pro-labor Republican if one existed, but Iowans aren’t likely to see that kind of candidate in my lifetime.

There are no longer any pro-choice Republicans in the Iowa House or Senate. In the old days, a handful used to receive support from Planned Parenthood’s PAC. Now Planned Parenthood Voters of Iowa endorses only certain Democratic candidates.

The Iowans for Tax Relief PAC endorsed 13 state legislative candidates this year, all Republicans: incumbents Jerry Behn, Chip Baltimore, and Guy Vander Linden; challengers Matt Reisetter, Jim Kenyon, Jane Jech, Mark Nelson, and Mike Klimesh; and open-seat candidates John Landon, Dan Zumbach, Greg Heartsill, Andrew Naeve, and Amy Sinclair. Usually this group endorses more Republicans, but during the past year a bunch of GOP legislators and candidates have expressed support for raising the gasoline tax.

I would put the Iowa Farm Bureau Federation’s PAC in this category too, because they are heavily skewed toward the Republican side, despite endorsing a few token Democrats like the Iowa Industry PAC does. The Farm Bureau survey for legislative candidates includes a few questions that have little apparent relevance for farmers but come straight out of GOP talking points:

3. Do you believe that one-time money, such as the state’s ending fund balance, should be spent on one-time expenditures or on-going expenses? […]

11. Do you support expanding the scope of negotiation under Iowa ‘s collective bargaining law? […]

14. Do you support voters registering and voting on the same day?

This year the Farm Bureau refused to release their full list of Iowa legislative endorsements, but Republican press releases posted here show that mostly GOP candidates got the “Friend of Agriculture” nod, including incumbents Jerry Behn and Pat Ward, challenger Jane Jech, and open-seat candidates Amy Sinclair, Andrew Naeve, Michael Breitbach, Larry Kruse, and Mark Segebart. I am not aware of any sitting Democrats endorsed as “Friends of Agriculture” other than Senator Brian Schoenjahn.

Notably, three Republicans were endorsed by both the Farm Bureau Federation and Iowans for Tax relief: Behn, Jech, and Naeve. All three of their races are important for the GOP’s quest for a Senate majority. Supporting the gas tax hike is a good thing from the Farm Bureau’s perspective but anathema to Iowans for Tax Relief, which explains some of the Republican names missing from each group’s endorsement list.

]]>http://www.bleedingheartland.com/2012/11/05/four-strategies-for-interest-group-iowa-legislative-endorsements/feed/0Iowa Senate ad watch: I-JOBS lies edition (updated)http://www.bleedingheartland.com/2012/10/24/iowa-senate-ad-watch-i-jobs-lies-edition-updated/
http://www.bleedingheartland.com/2012/10/24/iowa-senate-ad-watch-i-jobs-lies-edition-updated/#respondMon, 30 Nov -0001 00:00:00 +0000http://bleedingheartland.dev/diary/5800/helped fund more than 1,600 infrastructure projects around Iowa during the "Great Recession." From the beginning, Republicans have used misleading rhetoric to make their case against I-JOBS. Terry Branstad and GOP lawmakers exaggerated the initiative's costs and understated its benefits repeatedly during the 2010 campaign.

Now some Iowa Senate candidates are putting lies about I-JOBS at the center of their radio advertising.]]>

The I-JOBS bonding leveraged hundreds of millions more dollars in federal, state, local, and private funding for the infrastructure projects. For instance, the $100 million designated for flood recovery on the University of Iowa campus unlocked nearly $500 million in federal funding to repair those buildings.

The State budgeted $55 million annually from existing gaming revenue to finance the I-JOBS bonds without a tax increase. However, due to Iowa’s AAA bond rating from Standard & Poor’s, overall strong financial position, and the structure of the bonds, the annual debt service on the bonds will be approximately $43.2 million, which is funded by existing state gaming revenues.

It’s important to note that the I-JOBS bonds are being repaid with gambling revenues, not appropriations from the state of Iowa’s general fund.

I could not believe the number of political ads I heard on behalf of Republican Iowa Legislative candidates which were out-and-out lies related to the I-JOBS bonds. […]

If you talk to any business person…and they set their politics aside…they will tell you that they would have done the same thing for their own business. At the time, we had almost record low bond interest rates. So, to utilize bonds and lock in great, low rates was a terrific job of managing our state’s finances.

The first “false statement” being made about this “debt” is that it left the taxpayers of Iowa with this huge future burden. In fact, the ads I heard today actually claim that every Iowa taxpayer is on the hook for $1,000 of debt that has to be paid by our taxes. This is simply an out-and-out lie!! […] [Neither] The “general fund”, nor future tax revenues are being used nor will ever have to be used to pay off these bonds. Unless you are contributing to the gambling revenues, you are NOT paying for these bonds.

The 2nd “false statement” that is being made about the I-Jobs funding is that this money and these projects “created no new jobs”. WOW…how is that for a distortion of the facts. Tell that to the thousands of hard-working Iowans who took home regular paychecks from these jobs so they could pay their mortgage and feed their families.

You can argue that I-JOBS didn’t create enough jobs or fund enough worthwhile projects to justify the long-term borrowing costs, but you can’t credibly claim that the infrastructure projects added nothing to local economies.

Unfortunately, I suspect that many listeners will believe that I-JOBS accomplished nothing and forced their families to repay the debt.

“If you take three million people in Iowa and an average family size of 2.8 people, a billion dollars comes down to about $1,000 per family,” said Michael Breitbach, (R) Iowa Senate 28 candidate. […]

But what about the cost to taxpayers?

“That money will be repaid with casino money, with casino revenue or fines collected by the state. So on a financial aspect of it, the idea taxpayers are on the hook is perhaps a little misleading,” said Chris Larimer, KWWL Political Analyst.

“Whether you want to split hairs on if this is gambling revenues or other types of taxes, it’s still revenue that’s coming into the state that’s being diverted away from other activities that’s instead being used to pay down on this debt,” said Breitbach.

“Casino revenue would be the primary source of servicing the debt, and liquor taxes the second. To say it’s a taxpayer burden is simply inaccurate,” Breitbach’s opponent, Democrat John Beard, said.

In typical journalistic style, KWWL downplays a flat-out lie as “a little misleading” and uses “he said, he said” to evaluate the Republican ads. But I give them credit for attempting a bit of fact-checking. In 2010, few Iowa news media made any attempt to correct inaccurate claims about I-JOBS or other falsehoods that were staples of GOP attack advertising: the so-called “billion-dollar deficit” and non-existent heated sidewalks.

UPDATE: Jane Jech, the GOP nominee in Iowa Senate district 36, is using the same lies in a television ad against Democratic incumbent Steve Sodders. Here is my transcript of the commercial, which is running on WHO-TV in Des Moines.

Male voice-over: When state legislators voted for the I-JOBS debt bond plan, they put Iowa families in debt for 25 years to the tune of one billion dollars.

That’s right: Steve Sodders voted to borrow one billion dollars on behalf of Iowa taxpayers. Now every Iowa family is on the hook to pay back one thousand dollars through their taxes.

Steve Sodders paid state bills with debt, rather than making the tough decisions to balance the budget.

Bottom line: Steve Sodders means more debt for us and less money in our pocket.

Four blatant lies in 30 seconds:

1. “Now every Iowa family is on the hook to pay back one thousand dollars through their taxes.” No, gambling revenues are repaying the I-JOBS debt.

IA-01: Early returns show Rod Blum keeping it closer than expected with Republican establishment favorite Ben Lange. UPDATE: Wow, with nearly all the votes counted, Lange is leading Blum by only 52 percent to 47 percent. LATER UPDATE: I don’t think anyone expected this primary to be so close. With all but two precincts in, it’s Lange 52.8 percent, Blum 46.6 percent. FINAL: Lange 52.8 percent, Blum 46.6 percent. Imagine what might have happened if Blum had had a little more money to spend building his name recognition around the district.

IA-02: Early returns show John Archer ahead of Dan Dolan on the Republican side and Dave Loebsack way ahead of Joe Seng. UPDATE: With 255 of 425 precincts in, Loebsack has 86 percent of the vote, and Archer has a big lead on Dolan, 58 percent to 41 percent. LATER UPDATE: Loebsack’s share of the vote has dropped below 80 percent. Archer has a commanding lead in the GOP primary. FINAL: Loebsack 81.5 percent, Seng 18.3 percent. The incumbent was smart not to waste a lot of money on the primary campaign. On the Republican side, Archer finished with 60.5 percent of the vote, to 39.3 percent for Dolan. Was his message more appealing, or did he mainly benefit from having started building his name recognition on tv and radio sooner?

State Senate: Crawford County Supervisor Mark Segebart looks to be on track to win the GOP nomination in open Senate district 6. Governor Branstad had endorsed Carroll Mayor Adam Schweers. UPDATE: With all but one precinct in, Segebart has 46.6 percent to 40.3 percent for Schweers.

Dennis Guth defeated GOP establishment favorite James Black in the open Senate district 4. The Democratic nominee will be Bob Jennings.

In the open Senate district 10, where Democrats have no candidate, Jake Chapman easily wins the GOP primary with 65 percent of the vote to 34 percent for Matthew Mardesen.

Amy Sinclair will be the Republican nominee in the open Senate district 14, where Paul McKinley is retiring. Dick Schrad will be the Democratic candidate.

Jane Jech has a slight lead on Larry McKibben in the Senate district 36 GOP primary. Winner faces first-term Democrat Steve Sodders. UPDATE: Jech crushed McKibben. With all but two precincts in, she’s ahead 59 percent to 41 percent. That improves Democratic prospects for holding their Iowa Senate majority. Hard to see Sodders losing to Jech.

No results yet in Senate district 22. Incumbent Pat Ward defeats right-wing challenger Jeff Mullen easily in the Polk County precincts of Senate district 22. He’s competitive in the Dallas County part of the district, but Bleeding Heartland user albert notes in the comments that Ward is taking the lead even there. UPDATE: With most of the votes counted, Ward leads 58 percent to 42 percent. I hope Mullen’s supporters sulk and stay home in November.

With about half the precincts in, Shelley Parbs leads the three-way Democratic primary race in Senate district 38, where the winner faces first-term Republican Tim Kapucian. UPDATE: Parbs has 57 percent of the vote with only one precinct left to report.

Very early returns show Larry Kruse leading the GOP primary and Rich Taylor leading the Democratic primary in the open Senate district 42. UPDATE: It will be Taylor vs Kruse in this Democratic-leaning district.

In the clash of two GOP Senate incumbents, Jim Hahn leads Shawn Hamerlinck with about 20 percent of the precincts counted in Senate district 46. UPDATE: Hahn holding his lead with about half the precincts reported. The Democratic nominee for this district is Chris Brase. LATER UPDATE: Scott County reported and carried the day for Hamerlinck. He wins this primary with nearly 61 percent of the vote to 38 percent for Hahn.

Dan Zumbach will easily with the GOP primary in the open Senate district 48. The Democratic nominee will be Nate Willems.

Rita Hart defeated Dorothy O’Brien by nearly 54 percent to 46 percent in the Democratic primary for open Senate district 49. The GOP nominee is Andrew Naeve, who nearly won this Democratic-leaning area in 2010.

Former IA-01 Congressional candidate Will Johnson, a big Ron Paul supporter, won the GOP primary in Senate district 50 (Dubuque). He won’t stand a chance against first-term Democrat Pam Jochum.

On the Iowa House side:

Iowa House Republican Whip Erik Helland lost his primary to Jake Highfill in House district 39. That’s a big upset. Former State Representative Walt Tomenga, who represented part of this area before retiring in 2008, had publicly endorsed Highfill and slammed Helland.

LATER UPDATE: Helland was the only Iowa House GOP incumbent to lose to a primary challenger, not counting Sweeney (who lost to a fellow incumbent).

Pat Grassley is on track to defeat Annette Sweeney in Iowa House district 50. UPDATE: Not even close, Grassley 61 percent, Sweeney 39 percent. Will Bruce Rastetter still give huge sums of money to the House Republican Majority Fund?

Incumbent Jeff Smith will survive his primary challenge in House district 1. Ditto for Ron Jorgensen in House district 6, Greg Forristall in House district 22, Joel Fry in House district 27, and Jarad Klein in House district 78.

Henry Rayhons is barely ahead of his primary challenger, Bob Dishman, in House district 8. UPDATE: Rayhons holds on to win that primary. First-term incumbent Tom Shaw trails Maison Bleam in the early returns from House district 10. UPDATE: With almost all of the votes in, Shaw leads 64 percent to 36 percent.

Incumbent Cecil Dolecheck has a narrow lead with about a third of the precincts counted in House district 24. UPDATE: It turned out to be a blowout for Dolecheck, who received nearly 59 percent of the vote against Jane Jensen.

Julian Garrett looks on track to defeat his primary challenger in House district 25. UPDATE: Garrett wins with 59 percent of the vote.

In House district 26, the more conservative Republican Steve McCoy defeated Carlisle Mayor Ruth Randleman by nearly 56 percent to 44 percent in the GOP primary. Scott Ourth is the Democratic nominee in this open seat, where Glen Massie is retiring.

Republican House incumbent Kevin Koester also survived his primary challenge in House district 38.

None of the six Republican candidates won 35 percent of the vote in the open House district 37. Jim Robidoux fell just short with 34.4 percent. Matt DeVries was in second place with 29.7 percent. A district convention will decide the nomination.

Marti Anderson narrowly defeats Cara Kennedy-Ode in the three-way Democratic primary for House district 36. Janet Peterson vacated that district to run for the Iowa Senate. Jeff Ibbotson wins the three-way Republican primary in that district but probably has no chance against Anderson in the general.

Jim Carley wins the GOP nomination in the new House district 30, where Kim Pearson retired. Carley faces Democratic nominee Joe Riding in the general.

In the open Iowa House district 72, where Republican Lance Horbach is retiring, Nathan Wrage won the Democratic primary against Cristina Blackcloud-Garcia by 53.6 percent to 46.1 percent. I believe Blackcloud-Garcia is the first Native-American woman to run for the Iowa legislature. Wrage will face Republican Dean Fisher in the general.

David Johnson and Dick Schwab are neck and neck in the Democratic primary in House district 73. The winner faces Bobby Kaufmann, son of retiring GOP House Speaker Pro-Tem Jeff Kaufmann. LATE UPDATE: Final results: Schwab nearly 57 percent, Johnson 43 percent. We will see whether Johnson was right when he warned that a candidate from Johnson County (Schwab) would struggle in a district where more constituents live in Cedar County.

In the open House district 76, David Maxwell won the GOP primary by a 2-1 margin over Larry Wilson. He’ll face Grinnell City Council member Rachel Bly in the general.

Megan Hess won the GOP primary in the open House district 2, defeating Josh Davenport by nearly 54 percent to 46 percent. She’ll be heavily favored to beat Democrat Steve Bomgaars this November. This was a test of strength for various conservative interest groups in a heavily Republican part of northwest Iowa.

Both candidates reside in Spencer. Davenport is a pastor. Hess is a recent law school graduate who has worked in the Iowa and Minnesota legislatures and assisted Congressman Steve King and Senator Chuck Grassley. Iowa Gun Owners and Iowa Liberty PAC support Davenport. He also has the backing of House members Kim Pearson and Tom Shaw. The NRA endorsed Hess. Iowa Right to Life supports both candidates.

In more open-seat results, Greg Heartsill won big (3-1 margin) in the GOP primary to represent House district 28. He’ll face Democrat Megan Day Suhr this November.

]]>http://www.bleedingheartland.com/2012/06/05/iowa-primary-election-results-thread/feed/42Weekend open thread: Candidate filing deadline editionhttp://www.bleedingheartland.com/2012/03/16/weekend-open-thread-candidate-filing-deadline-edition/
http://www.bleedingheartland.com/2012/03/16/weekend-open-thread-candidate-filing-deadline-edition/#commentsMon, 30 Nov -0001 00:00:00 +0000http://bleedingheartland.dev/diary/5391/here (pdf). John Deeth has been covering the filing on a daily basis all month at his blog. Some highlights from races I'm watching are after the jump.

I was dead wrong yesterday. Democratic State Senator Joe Seng managed to collect enough signatures to qualify for the ballot in Iowa’s second Congressional district. That means three-term incumbent Dave Loebsack will have to deal with a competitive primary. So the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee’s robo-poll in IA-02 wasn’t a waste of money. UPDATE: Kevin Hall of The Iowa Republican blog says Seng’s nominating petitions wound up “at a few GOP county conventions” on March 10. Hall also comments, “I doubt Joe Seng can win, but he can beat up liberal Loebsack in the primary and force him to spend important time and treasure. Or Seng could pull off the upset. Either way, Iowans win.”

In 2008, many Democrats in the Iowa legislature savaged former State Representative Ed Fallon for running against Leonard Boswell in the IA-03 primary. Look for Seng to get a pass, because Democrats need him to get 26 votes for any bill in the Iowa Senate.

There weren’t any other surprises in the Congressional candidate filings, but I didn’t expect Steve King to challenge Christie Vilsack to six debates in the fourth district. The last few cycles, King has refused all invitations to debate his challengers.

In IA-02, only two of the three Republicans who declared a few months ago filed for the ballot: Dan Dolan and John Archer. Both have been campaigning frequently around the district. Archer was the first to go up on radio district-wide. He’s also taken a leave of absence from his job to run for Congress full-time.

Iowa Senate races

Democrats have candidates in 21 of the 26 Senate districts that will be on the ballot this November. Republicans have candidates in all 26 races, no matter how hopeless some of those districts look. I give them credit for not leaving any Senate Democrat unchallenged.

I am surprised that Council Bluffs Republicans didn’t recruit a stronger candidate to jump in against Senate Majority Leader Mike Gronstal at the last minute. Surely they could have done better than Al Ringgenberg in the new Senate district 8. I had heard that Governor Terry Branstad was helping make calls to recruit someone else for this race, but if that’s true, whoever was courted didn’t take the bait. Fortunately for the GOP, they have a lot of other paths to 26 Senate seats.

There will be quite a few contested primaries on the Senate side. In the open district 4, Republicans James Black and Dennis Guth will compete to face Democrat Bob Jennings.

In the open district 6, Republicans Matthew Biede, Adam Schweers, and Mark Segebart will compete to face Democrat Mary Bruner.

In the open district 10, there is no Democratic candidate, so the winner of the GOP primary between Jake Chapman and Matthew Mardesen has a lock on the seat.

The open district 14, now held by retiring former Senate Minority Leader Paul McKinley, will be quite a free-for-all. Three Republicans (Steve Everly, Stephanie Jones, and Amy Sinclair) and two Democrats (Dick Schrad and Jason Demichelis) are running.

I’m looking forward to watching the primary race between State Senator Pat Ward and Jeff Mullen in my home district, Senate 22. The winner will face Desmund Adams, who has been working hard despite the long odds for a Democrat in this suburban seat.

Democrats did find a candidate against Senate Minority Leader Jerry Behn in the new district 24. Shelly Stotts filed yesterday.

Lots of districts are up for grabs in northwest Iowa. Senate district 26 will feature the clash of two incumbents, Republican Merlin Bartz and Democrat Mary Jo Wilhelm.

As expected, Democrat John Beard and Republican Mike Breitbach will contest the open Senate district 28.

Republican Matt Reisetter is challenging Democrat Jeff Danielson in the new Senate district 30. Danielson squeaked by in 2008 by fewer than two dozen votes.

For ages I didn’t hear anything about a Republican challenger to Democrat Brian Schoenjahn in district 32, but Elliott Henderson filed for that seat today.

Randi Shannon is the only Republican challenger to Liz Mathis in district 34. Mathis won last November’s special election in the old Senate district 18.

As expected, two Republicans, Larry McKibben and Jane Jech, will compete to face Steve Sodders in the new district 36.

Three Democrats are running in the new district 38: LaForest Sherman, Shelley Parbs, and Nick Volk. Republican Tim Kapucian now holds that seat.

In the open district 42, two Republicans are running, Lee Harder and Larry Kruse. The general-election favorite will be the winner of the Democratic primary between Donna Amandus, Bob Morawitz, and Rich Taylor.

Republican Senators Shawn Hamerlinck and Jim Hahn will face off in the district 46 primary; the winner will run against Democrat Chris Brase.

Two Republicans filed in the open district 48: Brian Cook and Dan Zumbach. Cindy Golding, who lost to Liz Mathis in last November’s special Senate election, had considered running here but didn’t file. State Representative Nate Willems will be the Democratic nominee.

As expected, Democrats Rita Hart and Dorothy O’Brien are running in the new district 49, where Republicans have a strong candidate in Andrew Naeve.

Iowa House races

There will be competitive Republican primaries in 25 House districts. In 11 of those districts someone is challenging a sitting House Republican. Some of those seats are locks for the GOP in the general, others are long-shots. On balance I think it’s healthy for a party to have a lot of competitive primaries, but I can’t remember seeing so many challenges to incumbents. The bad news for House Speaker Kraig Paulsen is that lots of incumbents in safe Republican seats will spend campaign cash defending themselves in the primary. That means less money for leadership to direct to incumbents or challengers in swing districts.

The most interesting match-up by far will be the battle of House incumbents Annette Sweeney and Pat Grassley in the new district 50. That’s widely considered a proxy war between Bruce Rastetter, a childhood friend of Sweeney’s, and Senator Chuck Grassley, Pat’s grandfather.

Democrats have only five competitive House primaries lined up; that number could shrink if any of the candidates drop out in the near future.

Republican House incumbents who did not file for re-election: House Speaker Pro Tem Jeff Kaufmann, Kim Pearson, Glen Massie, and Dan Rasmussen. I wondered whether Rasmussen might bow out when I saw he had raised almost nothing in 2011 beyond the PAC donations that come automatically to every GOP state representative. Jim Givant will run in district 64, where Rasmussen lives. Kaufmann’s son Bobby is the GOP candidate in the new district 73. There will be competitive primaries to replace Pearson in district 30 and Massie in district 26.

I didn’t notice any surprise retirements on the Democratic side.

In the new House district 47, former Democratic State Representative Donovan Olson is seeking a rematch with Republican Chip Baltimore, who beat him by a couple dozen votes in 2010. The other rematch will be in the new district 58, where Democrat Tom Schueller is running against surprise 2010 Republican winner Brian Moore.

I didn’t notice any obvious recruiting failures for House Republicans. Democrats didn’t manage to line up challengers against some GOP incumbents in what should be swing districts. For now Lee Hein is unchallenged in in the new district 96, and so is Steve Olson in the new district 97.

Earlier today, Democrat Becky Perkovich filed in the new House district 48; I wondered whether Republican Rob Bacon would get a free pass there after Rich Olive bowed out of that race.

On Dec. 29, Highfill’s complaint alleges, he received a phone call and voice message from Helland asking Highfill to call him back. Highfill returned the call about five minutes later, and the two spoke for 28 minutes, according to phone records he provided the Register.

“Mr. Helland made a series of attempts to persuade me not to challenge him in the Republican Primary,” Highfill’s complaint alleges. “He talked about the money advantage he has, his seniority in the Iowa House, as well as his performance in the previous 2008 primary he was involved in against Al Lorenzen. Included in his attempts to persuade me not to challenge him were promising me multiple jobs, including, being a clerk in the Iowa House and working for a candidate or the Republican Party in the summer and fall. He repeatedly told me that I don’t want to challenge him and that I should abandon my campaign and gain experience by working for him and the Republican Party.”

Highfill said he did not respond to Helland’s offer immediately but sent Helland a text message several hours later reading, “I thank you for the offer but I am going to respectful (sic) decline. If you want me to call you I could later or tomorrow.”

Helland, a two-term incumbent who serves as whip for the House’s GOP caucus, immediately replied via text, “I have time now.”

In the phone conversation that followed, Highfill told the Register, Helland became “forceful,” “angry” and “confrontational.”

“Mr. Helland was noticeably unhappy with my decision not to accept his offer of employment in exchange of me not challenging him in the primary,” Highfill states.

In the complaint, Highfill interprets the offer as a bribe and an attempt to intimidate: Helland was “effectively attempting to appease me through bribery and threatening overtones of his superior position in Iowa Legislature,” he writes.

The complaint does not, however, specify exactly what law or ethics rule Highfill believes Helland violated.

Megan Tooker, executive director of the Ethics and Campaign Disclosure Board, said she passed the complaint on to the House because its allegations did not violate the sections of Iowa law concerning campaign finance and lobbying, over which the board has jurisdiction.

Although the shuttered offices are unlikely ever to reopen, they may live on as talking points in many competitive Iowa House and Senate races next fall.]]>

Iowa Workforce Development officials announced the restructuring plans in February as a way to save money while improving access for unemployed Iowans. Some 500 computer terminals in public libraries, Iowa State University extension offices and other locations will eventually be equipped to allow people to seek help from Iowa Workforce Development staff.

Several Democratic legislators are co-plaintiffs in a lawsuit challenging Branstad’s use of his item veto power with respect to Iowa Workforce Development funding. But as the governor pointed out during a recent press conference, it will be a long time before that case works its way through the court system.

“Our tracking data indicates that services are equal to or greater than what they were available at this time last year. I see this as a significant success and commend Director (Teresa) Wahlert and Iowa Workforce Development for their good work,” Branstad said. […]

In place of the unemployment offices, the state is installing hundreds of kiosk-like computer stations in places like libraries and homeless shelters where Iowans can access online training, assistance in preparing for interviews and other job application services.

Critics contend that what’s essentially a self-help computer program is a far cry from personal, one-on-one assistance previously provided to thousands of unemployed workers.

But advocates say the move will prove to be more beneficial to Iowans, saving $6.5 million a year and also enhancing job searches through computer software. […]

There are now 373 virtual access points with at least one kiosk-like center in each county. Iowans have access to phone or online interaction with state unemployment officials at the sites, which has led to an extension of the number of hours of service, state officials said today.

“We continue to add new things. This is a very evolving technology. One of the things we added just today…is a fifth option for people and it’s called, ‘I am a student,’” Wahlert says. “And in this fifth option we have things like ‘How to find a job’, what the requirements are for GED. We are working on a partnership with ACT to add practice testing.”

Those practice tests for the ACT and for GEDs will be available in December.

Workforce Development staff are now available from 8 a.m. to 8 p.m. Monday through Friday and on Saturdays from 10 a.m. ’til 2 p.m. to answer questions from people who go online and seek help with their job search. Wahlert says in the past, Workforce Development offices weren’t open past 4:30 p.m. and not every county in the state had an office. Today, there are 370 on-line access points for the Workforce Development computer program.

If 500 computer terminals across the state serve unemployed people well, the Iowa Workforce Development restructuring may be a non-issue next year. Still, I expect to see some Democratic statehouse candidates pointing to vacant storefronts where field offices used to be. The “enhanced access points” could become a symbol of failed Republican governance if they don’t function as advertised in numerous locations.

Here’s a list of the 36 cities and towns that lost Iowa Workforce Development field offices this year, along with background on the 2012 Iowa House and Senate races in those areas. Scroll to the end of this post for a shorter list of potentially competitive statehouse campaigns in communities that no longer have an Iowa Workforce Development field office.

Algona (Kossuth County)

For the past decade, Algona has been in the old House district 8, where Republican Tom Shaw won an open-seat race in 2010. Iowa’s new map of political boundaries put Algona in the new House district 7 (map), represented by first-term Democrat John Wittneben. He won his open-seat race in 2010 by less than three dozen votes. House district 7 has a small Democratic voter registration advantage, but I expect Republicans to mount a strong challenge for this seat. Algona is also part of the new Senate district 4 (map), which has a comfortable Republican voter registration advantage. No Democratic candidate has declared for that race. Former State Senator Jim Black is likely to be the Republican nominee.

Ames (Story County)

Both Iowa House districts in Ames are fairly strong seats for Democrats Beth Wessel-Kroeschell and Lisa Heddens, who decided to move after the redistricting plan put her home outside the north Ames-based district 46 (map). Wessel-Kroeschell lives in the new House district 45 (map). Democratic State Senator Herman Quirmbach is the incumbent in the new Senate district 23 (map), and he won’t be on the ballot again until 2014.

Atlantic (Cass County)

Atlantic will be part of the new House district 21 (map) and Senate district 11 (map). Both districts have huge Republican voter registration advantages, and Democrats are unlikely to mount serious challenges to GOP State Representative Jack Drake or State Senator Hubert Houser, assuming both seek re-election.

Boone (Boone County)

Both the House and the Senate race here have potential to be competitive in 2012. First-term Republican Chip Baltimore represents the current House district 48, where he defeated Democratic incumbent Donovan Olson by only a couple dozen votes in 2010. Boone is part of the new House district 47 (map), which has a tiny Democratic registration advantage but a plurality of no-party voters. Olson has not disclosed whether he plans to seek a rematch with Baltimore. No other Democrat has declared for the seat yet. Boone is in the new Senate district 24 (map), represented by Republican Jerry Behn. His new district has only a small voter GOP registration advantage, with a plurality of no-party voters. No Democrat has stepped up to challenge Behn, whose long incumbency and recent election as Iowa Senate Republican leader make him the clear favorite in my opinion.

Centerville (Appanoose County)

Retiring Democrat Kurt Swaim currently represents this area, but the new map of political boundaries puts Appanoose County in House district 80 (map). No incumbent currently lives in the district. Democrat Joe Judge announced his candidacy in May, shortly after the redistricting plan was approved. It’s among the most balanced House districts, with roughly equal numbers of registered Democrats, Republicans and no-party voters. To my knowledge, no Republican has entered the race. On the Senate side, Centerville is in the new district 40 (map). Two-term Democratic incumbent Tom Rielly faces a big uphill climb here, and he hasn’t represented Appanoose County before.

Both Iowa House district 3 (map) and Iowa Senate district 2 (map) lean heavily Republican. It will take a lot more than Iowa Workforce Development closing an office to make this part of northwest Iowa politically competitive. State Senator Randy Feenstra should be safe for 2012. Two current Iowa House Republicans, Royd Chambers and Dan Huseman, live in this district; it’s not clear whether they will face off in a GOP primary or whether one will retire.

Clarinda (Page County)

Similar story here: the new Iowa House district 24 (map) and Senate district 12 (map) cover parts of southwest Iowa that are safe for Republicans. State Senator Joni Ernst should have no trouble winning re-election. On the House side, the eventual nominee (Cecil Dolecheck or Rich Anderson) should have no problem winning the general election, with or without an Iowa Workforce Development office.

Restructuring of state services for the unemployed is sure to become an issue here, because the Democratic candidate in the new Iowa House district 18 (map) is Kasey Friedrichsen, a former Iowa Workforce Development employee in the Denison office. Her opponent will be two-term Republican State Representative Jason Schultz. He’s not my cup of tea, but he has a fairly substantial GOP voter registration edge on his side. Senate district 9 (map) also leans heavily Republican. It may not be on the ballot in 2012, unless current GOP incumbent Senators Nancy Boettger and Jim Seymour decide to face off in a primary. JANUARY 2012 UPDATE: Seymour is retiring, so there will be no election this year in Senate district 9.

Emmetsburg (Palo Alto County)

To my knowledge, there is no Democratic candidate yet in the new Iowa House district 2 (map). The Republican nomination is up for grabs, as no current incumbent lives in this district. There won’t be a 2012 campaign in the new Senate district 1 (map), which includes Palo Alto County. Democrat Jack Kibbie’s retirement means Republican Senator David Johnson will hold over until 2014.

Estherville (Emmet County)

Like Algona, which I covered above, Estherville is located in the new House district 7, represented by Democrat John Wittneben, and the new Senate district 4, which has no incumbent. Estherville is Wittneben’s home base, and he’ll need to run up the score here to win in this swing district. I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Iowa Workforce Development office closure become a campaign issue for him.

Fairfield (Jefferson County)

Fairfield is located in the new House district 82 (map). Democrat Curt Hanson is the incumbent. Republicans will contest the new district 82 in 2012, because they have a slight voter registration advantage here. However, Hanson has strong local support, having won a 2009 special election and re-election in 2010 in the old House district 90. First-term Republican State Senator Mark Chelgren holds over until 2014 in the new Senate district 41 (map), which includes the Fairfield area. That’s lucky for him, because Democrats should win this district back next time it’s on the ballot. Chelgren defeated Democratic incumbent Keith Kreiman by only a dozen votes in 2010.

Republican Dave Heaton has represented the Mount Pleasant area in the Iowa House since the 1994 election. The new map puts Henry County in Iowa House district 84 (map). To my knowledge, no Democrat has announced plans to challenge Heaton, who will be heavily favored even if there is lingering resentment over the demise of the Iowa Workforce Development office. Henry County is part of the new Senate district 42 (map), which I discussed above in the context of Keokuk.

Muscatine (Muscatine County)

Democrats do not yet have a candidate in the new House district 91, which covers the Muscatine area (map). Republican State Representative Mark Lofgren defeated three-term Democratic incumbent Nathan Reichert in the old House district 80 in 2010. FEBRUARY 2012 UPDATE: John Dabeet will be the Democratic candidate in House district 91. The city of Muscatine and nearby areas of Muscatine county also like in the new Senate district 46 (map). That should become one of the most competitive state Senate races of 2012. Democrat Chris Brase will face one of two Republican incumbents: Shawn Hamerlinck or Jim Hahn.

The optics of closing the Iowa Workforce Development branch in Newton are lousy: unemployment is relatively high in the city that hasn’t fully recovered from the Maytag plant closing. On the other hand, Newton isn’t far from Marshalltown or Des Moines, which both will retain staffed Iowa Workforce Development offices. Newton lies in the new House district 29 (map), represented by Democrat Dan Kelley. It’s a strong Democratic district where no Republican has entered the race, as far as I know. There will be no election next year in the new Senate district 15 (map), which includes Newton and most of Jasper County. Democrat Dennis Black holds over until 2014.

Oelwein (Fayette County)

The Oelwein area lies in the new House district 64 (map), represented by Republican Dan Rasmussen. He narrowly defeated Democratic State Representative Gene Ficken in 2010 in the old House district 23, and the new district 64 leans Democratic in terms of voter registration. I am not aware of any Democrat actively campaigning here yet, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Iowa Workforce Development controversy pop up during the 2012 campaign. The part of Fayette county that includes Oelwein is in the new Senate district 32 (map). It’s almost evenly divided in terms of voter registration, and Democratic incumbent Brian Schoenjahn could face a tough battle in 2012. Schoenjahn is from Arlington, a smaller town in Fayette County. He has no GOP challenger yet, to my knowledge.

Orange City (Sioux County)

Iowa Senate district 2 (map) and Iowa House district 4 (map) are located in one of the most Republican-voting counties in the United States. No amount of fallout over Iowa Workforce Development Offices will threaten State Representative Dwayne Alons or State Senator Randy Feenstra.

Osceola (Clarke County)

Osceola is the largest town in the new House district 27 (map). First-term Republican State Representative Joel Fry lives in Osceola, and his new district has only a slight GOP voter registration advantage. I haven’t heard of any Democrat running for this seat yet. Clarke County is part of the new Senate district 14 (map). Neither party has an announced candidate here, as far as I know. Former Republican Senate Minority Leader Paul McKinley decided against running for re-election in 2012.

Oskaloosa (Mahaska County)

Oskaloosa lies in the new House district 79 (map). Republican State Representative Guy Vander Linden lives in Oskaloosa. I doubt any resentment over an Iowa Workforce Development office will create a problem for him, given the large GOP voter registration advantage in this district. Meanwhile, two-term Democrat Tom Rielly is arguably the most endangered Iowa Senate incumbent in 2012, despite having previously served as mayor of Oskaloosa. Registered Republicans outnumber Democrats by nearly 5,000 voters in the new Senate district 40 (map), which includes Oskaloosa.

Pella (Marion County)

Pella has a reputation as one of Iowa’s most conservative towns, and it lies in the new House district 79 (map) along with Oskaloosa. Should be smooth sailing here for GOP State Representative Vander Linden and a rough ride for Democrat Rielly in he new Senate district 40 (map)

Like Humboldt, which I discussed above, Pocahontas is in the new House district 10 (map). Republican incumbents Tom Shaw and Dave Tjepkes appear likely to face off in a primary, and there is no announced Democratic candidate to my knowledge. Democratic State Senator Daryl Beall holds over until 2014 in the new Senate district 5 (map).

Red Oak (Montgomery County)

The northern two-thirds of Montgomery County, including Red Oak, are in the new House district 23 (map). Although the seat is open, it won’t be an inviting target for House Democrats given the enormous GOP voter registration advantage. The Republican primary will in effect determine the winner of House district 23 in 2012. All of Montgomery County is the new Senate district 12 (map), where Red Oak resident Joni Ernst won’t have any trouble being re-elected in 2012.

Shenandoah (Page County)

Like Clarinda, which I discussed above, Shenandoah is in the overwhelmingly Republican House district 24 (map) and Senate district 12 (map).

Storm Lake (Buena Vista County)

Buena Vista County is part of the new House district 11 (map). Incumbent Republican Gary Worthan lives in Storm Lake and will be able to run for re-election in a district with a strong GOP voter registration advantage. Worthan defeated Democrat Danuta Hutchins by nearly a 3:1 margin in 2010, and he shouldn’t have much trouble winning a fourth term in 2012. The new Senate district 6 (map) is open, because current Senate Republican whip Steve Kettering has decided to retire in 2012. The winner of the GOP primary will be heavily favored in the general election, and it’s possible that Democrats won’t even field a candidate here.

Washington (Washington County)

Most of Washington County, including county seat Washington, is part of the new House district 78 (map). The new map paired two Republican incumbents: first-termer Jarad Klein and long-timer Betty DeBoef. She decided to retire, so Klein doesn’t have to deal with a competitive primary. Democrats don’t have a candidate yet in House district 78, which has a Republican voter registration advantage. There will not be a 2012 election in the new Senate district 39 (map), which covers the Washington area. Republican Sandy Greiner holds over until 2014, by which time the Iowa Workforce Development restructuring will be a long time past.

Waverly (Bremer County)

Waverly is the largest town the new House district 63 (map). Republican Pat Grassley currently represents Bremer County in the Iowa House, but no incumbent lives in the new district. Longtime Waverly resident Bill Heckroth, a former Democratic state senator, is running for this House seat and has at least one Republican opponent, Sandy Salmon. It should be a hard-fought race; Republicans have a voter registration edge, but the Democrat has a stronger base in the Waverly area. Bremer County is part of the new Senate district 32 (map), which I discussed above in the context of Oelwein. Democrat Brian Schoenjahn is the incumbent.

To sum up, the following potentially competitive Iowa House and Senate districts contain towns where Iowa Workforce Development offices have closed in 2011.

In all of the above districts, I would not be surprised to see Democratic incumbents or challengers criticize the Iowa Workforce Development restructuring, especially if Iowa’s unemployment rate doesn’t drop significantly during the next year. It’s too early to say whether that would be a successful political strategy. It’s possible that voters will share Governor Branstad’s preference for hundreds of computer terminals instead of a few dozen field offices with part-time hours.

Any comments about the 2012 legislative races are welcome in this thread.

Even as she gets back on track at the farm, investments, property management and non-profit consulting businesses she and her husband, Joe, operate, Golding is being encouraged to get back on the campaign trail.

“So we’re regrouping as a family, deciding whether there is enough support to move ahead,” she said. “It’s not what I want as much as what the people in the district want. You can’t do it by yourself.”

Senate district 48 covers all of Delaware County, most of Linn County outside Cedar Rapids and its suburbs, part of Jones County (including the towns of Anamosa and Monticello), and a small area in Buchanan County.

Voter registration numbers suggest that this swing district will be competitive in 2012. As of April 2011, Senate district 48 contained 11,553 Democrats, 11,552 Republicans and 15,559 no-party voters.

Golding was annoyed with outside groups “inserted themselves in ways I had no control over … because of the dynamics of this being the one (seat) that would balance the Senate.” […]

The National Organization for Marriage, The Family Leader and Family Research Council Action campaigned for Golding.

She was uncomfortable about their role.

“There are lots of ways to present your message and some of the most aggressive approaches turn people off,” Golding said. Those groups, she added, “turned off Republicans as much as energized Republicans.

“And that’s unfortunate, but we could not tell them stop,” she said.

That doesn’t sound like a winning message with primary voters next spring. Blaming other people for your campaign’s failures doesn’t come across as gracious.

Meanwhile, Republican griping about Golding began quickly after the special election. The Iowa Republican publisher Craig Robinson portrayed her as an “ungrateful and difficult candidate” in his post-mortem on the Senate district 18 campaign. In Robinson’s account, Golding was a complainer who didn’t trust the state party and refused to spend her time making phone calls and knocking on doors. He is probably shifting too much blame to Golding in order to downplay the GOP’s failure to mobilize voters in a swing suburban district. Still, his megaphone is big enough to make that unflattering image stick with the party establishment.

Dan Zumbach and Brian Cook, both of Delaware County, have announced plans to seek the Republican nomination in Senate district 48. Zumbach is a farmer and former school board member in the West Delaware County Community Schools. Cook sells insurance out of his home in Manchester.

If Cook and Zumbach stay in the race and split the Delaware County vote, Golding may yet have a chance in the GOP primary, but I don’t see it happening. She would have been a conservative hero had she won last week’s special election. Now every Iowa House-approved bill that Senate Majority Leader Mike Gronstal blocks will be a reminder of how Golding blew the opportunity Governor Terry Branstad handed Republicans.

Whoever wins the GOP primary, Senate district 48 will be a battleground during the general election campaign. One promising sign for Republicans is that they already have declared candidates in both of the Iowa House districts that make up the new Senate district. High school teacher Quentin Stanerson is seeking the Republican nomination in the new House district 95, which covers a large area in Linn County and part of Buchanan County:

Democrats have a slight voter registration advantage in the new House district 95, but you can’t win a seat without a candidate. So far no one has stepped up to the plate to replace Willems, who’s running for the Iowa Senate instead of for re-election in this seat.

]]>http://www.bleedingheartland.com/2011/11/14/cindy-golding-still-considering-iowa-senate-district-48-bid/feed/0Competitive GOP primary coming in Iowa Senate district 48http://www.bleedingheartland.com/2011/10/28/competitive-gop-primary-coming-in-iowa-senate-district-48/
http://www.bleedingheartland.com/2011/10/28/competitive-gop-primary-coming-in-iowa-senate-district-48/#respondMon, 30 Nov -0001 00:00:00 +0000http://bleedingheartland.dev/diary/5074/Democrat Nate Willems' opponent whether or not Cindy Golding of Linn County follows through on her plans to run in Senate district 48 next year as well. Golding is the GOP nominee for the November 8 special election in Iowa Senate district 18.

A district map and background on Zumbach and Cook are after the jump.]]>

Senate district 48 covers all of Delaware County, most of Linn County outside Cedar Rapids and its suburbs, part of Jones County (including the towns of Anamosa and Monticello), and a small area in Buchanan County.

Independents are the largest voter group in Senate district 48, and neither major party has a registration advantage. The district contained 11,553 Democrats, 11,552 Republicans and 15,559 no-party voters as of April 2011.

No current state senator lives in the new district 48. Two-term Democratic State Representative Nate Willems announced his candidacy almost immediately after Iowa’s redistricting plan was finalized. Willems lives in Lisbon, one of the Linn County communities in the new district.

Zumbach said today, “I have been out meeting with voters and listening to their concerns. They are wanting to see the size of the state budget be reduced, remove burdensome business regulations, and work to improve and enhance our education system. I will take these ideas and concerns to Des Moines if the voters decide to elect me.”

Zumbach and his family farm in the Ryan area. Dan served on the West Delaware School Board, the Delaware County Fair Board, and several terms on the church council. Dan is currently a 4-H leader and also an official for the Iowa High School Athletic Association. Dan and his wife Michelle have four children and have been married for 27 years. They are members of Peace Lutheran Church in Ryan.

“I live and work in this district every day and have all my life. I passionately care for the concerns and the people in my district.”

“I am a fiscal conservative and understand the importance of working within our means. We must allow more creativity in the process so we can spend smarter and more efficiently. Iowans are intelligent and creative people. We need to get back to work together again to provide real solutions which every Iowan will feel in each of their lives,” Zumbach continued.

Brian Cook announced his candidacy in Senate district 48 nearly a month ago at the Delaware County GOP fall dinner. Some weekly newspapers in the district picked up on his announcement, but unfortunately none of those papers post their archives online. The Monticello Express on October 12 covered Cook’s remarks to the Delaware County Republicans and described his occupation as selling insurance from his home-based business in Manchester. I don’t have a detailed bio for Cook, but he reportedly has worked as a newspaper editor in the past as well.

John Deeth asserted that the timing of Zumbach’s press release shortly before the special election “suggests both a lack of solid party support for Golding and a lowering of victory expectations.” I think the timing makes more sense if Zumbach and Cook expect Golding to win the special election. Helping to deadlock the state Senate would make her a hero to Republicans across Iowa. I would think Zumbach and Cook want to undercut any sense of inevitability should Golding be successful in Linn County.

If Golding loses to Democrat Liz Mathis on November 8, her chances of becoming the 2012 nominee in Senate district 48 diminish significantly. But if she spends the early months of 2012 representing district 18 in the legislature, I believe she would be a strong primary candidate in district 48–particularly if she’s the only woman in the race, and two men split the Delaware County primary vote. Senate district 48 lacks a dominant population center. According to the Iowa Secretary of State’s office (pdf), Delaware County had 3,846 active registered GOP voters as of October 2011.

Any comments about the Senate district 48 campaign are welcome in this thread.