Roy Morgan Poll August 20

National (48%) holds its
lead over Labour/ Greens (39%) as ‘Dirty Politics’
revelations provide a new challenge for PM John Key’s
leadership.NZ First surge to 6.5% - highest support
since September 2013.

Today’s New
Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows gain in support for National
(48%, up 2%) now with a significant lead over a potential
Labour/Greens alliance (39%, down 3%) exactly a month before
the New Zealand Election on September 20.

Support
for Key’s Coalition partners has fallen slightly overall
with the Maori Party 1% (down 0.5%), Act NZ (0.5%,
unchanged) and United Future 0.5% (unchanged).

Support for
the Labour Party is 27.5% (down 2.5%), the Greens are down
0.5% to 11.5%. Potential ‘king-makers’ NZ First looks
set to return to Parliament with 6.5% (up 1.5%) –
the highest support for NZ First since September
2013, the Internet-Mana Party alliance is 2.5%
(unchanged). Support for the Conservative Party of NZ is 1%
(unchanged) and support for Independent/ Others is 1%
(unchanged).

If a National Election were held now
the latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows that the result
would be the Key Government being returned to
Parliament.

The latest NZ Roy Morgan Government
Confidence Rating has risen to 139pts (up 4pts) with 63.5%
(up 3.5%) of New Zealanders saying New Zealand is ‘heading
in the right direction’ compared to 24.5% (down 0.5%) that
say New Zealand is ‘heading in the wrong direction’. The
New Zealand Government Confidence Rating (139) is
substantially higher than ‘across the ditch’ in
Australia – Australian Government Confidence last week
fell to 92.5pts (down 7pts).

Michele Levine, CEO Roy
Morgan, says:

“The latest NZ Roy Morgan Poll
shows National (48%) with an election-winning lead over a
Labour/ Greens alliance (39%) only a month before the NZ
Election. Last week’s release of Nicky Hager’s new book
‘Dirty Politics’ has caused a stir in the media although
the full impact of some of Hager’s explosive disclosures
has yet to be seen.

“In light of Hager’s new
book though it is worth remembering that ‘dirty tricks’
in politics is nothing new – Politics is ‘dirty’ and
everyone knows that. What has changed in recent years is
that clearly the advance of technology and the increasing
role of the Internet in everyone’s lives provide a new
dimension to these sorts of revelations. The Internet has
opened up new levels of transparency and added an
unprecedented level of scrutiny to the actions of all of us,
and politicians in particular.

“Along with these
technological advancements also comes increased spying from
Government agencies like the Government Communications
Securities Bureau (GCSB), and even more nefarious activities
like hacking and collusion between Ministerial staff and
bloggers to discredit opponents – as revealed in Hager’s
new book.

“In terms of the New Zealand Election
though, the most important thing to assess is how Prime
Minister John Key handles the revelations and the fall-out.
If Key demonstrates strong leadership and competence,
electors will reward Key for these qualities rather than
blame him for the shortcomings of those around him – the
Roy Morgan Scoop NZ Election Reactor is
the best tool available to monitor how New Zealand electors
judge their leaders.

“The other point to keep in
mind is that timing is crucial during elections. The release
of Hager’s book a month before the election gives all the
leaders time to respond, and electors will judge their
response, whereas information that is revealed in the final
days of an election campaign can have an immediate impact
that doesn’t give time for leaders to
react.

“Looking directly at today’s New Zealand
Roy Morgan Poll shows the main parties are essentially
unchanged on the results of the 2011 NZ Election. An
exception to this is the new Internet Party (1.5% support)
which is set to win representation in Parliament if Mana
Party Leader Hone Harawira holds his seat of Te Tai
Toekerau. However, a significant difference compared to
three years ago is the high Government Confidence Rating
(139pts, up 4pts). This is significantly higher than
immediately prior to the last election when the final
pre-election New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll showed Government
Confidence at 118.5, and a strong sign for Key as he seeks
re-election.

“Most notably however, the ‘fourth
party’ of New Zealand politics, NZ First, has increased
its share of the vote to 6.5% (up 1.5%) – a level of
support that would see all eight NZ First MPs returned to
Parliament, and likely give NZ First Leader Winston Peters
the chance to once again choose who New Zealand’s Prime
Minister will be. Peters last held a Ministerial post when
he served as Foreign Minister during the last term of Helen
Clark’s Prime Ministership (2005-08).

“Although
the ongoing discussion about ‘Dirty Politics’ appears
likely to damage support for National, today’s New
Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows NZ First may be the biggest
beneficiary of a discredited National Government rather than
the main opposition Labour and Greens
parties.”

Electors were asked: “If a New
Zealand Election were held today which party would receive
your party vote?” This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan
Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone – both
landline and mobile telephone, with a NZ wide cross-section
of 809 electors from August 4-17, 2014. Of all electors
surveyed 6.5% (unchanged) didn’t name a
party.

Margin of Error

The margin of
error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on
the number of interviews on which it is based. The following
table gives indications of the likely range within which
estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the
number of percentage points above or below the actual
estimate. The figures are approximate and for general
guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance
for design effects (such as stratification and weighting)
should be made as appropriate.

Sample
Size

Percentage
Estimate

40%-60%

25%
or 75%

10% or
90%

5% or
95%

500

±4.5

±3.9

±2.7

±1.9

1,000

±3.2

±2.7

±1.9

±1.4

1,500

±2.6

±2.2

±1.5

±1.1

2,000

±2.2

±1.9

±1.3

±1.0

Roy Morgan New Zealand Election 2014 Interactive
Charts

These interactive charts allow a deeper
look at voting patterns in New Zealand over varying
timeframes and provide election observers with the ability
to pinpoint key turning points for the political
parties.

In future weeks we will be adding key demographic
variables to the charts including Age, Gender and Regional
breakdowns to show which way key demographics are voting and
which demographics each party needs to target to maximise
their vote at this year’s New Zealand Election – called
for September 20, 2014. View interactive New Zealand Election charts
here.

The following table compares the latest
New Zealand Roy Morgan Polls on Voting Intention with the
result from the November 26, 2011 General Election:

PRIMARY
VOTE

National

Labour

Green

Party

NZ

First

Maori

Party*

Mana

Party*

Internet*

ACT

NZ

United

Future

Conservatives*

Other

ELECTIONS

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

July
27,
2002

20.9

41.3

7

10.4

n/a

n/a

n/a

7.1

6.7

n/a

6.6

September
17,
2005

39.1

41.1

5.3

5.72

2.12

n/a

n/a

1.51

2.67

n/a

2.48

November
8,
2008

44.93

33.99

6.72

4.07

2.39

n/a

n/a

3.65

0.87

n/a

3.38

November
26,
2011

47.31

27.48

11.06

6.59

1.43

1.08

n/a

1.07

0.60

2.65

0.73

ROY
MORGAN
POLL

Jun
8-24,
2012

47.5

32

12

4

1.5

0.5

n/a

0.5

0.5

n/a

1.5

Jun
25-Jul 8,
2012

45.5

32.5

13

4.5

1

0.5

n/a

0.5

0.5

n/a

2

Jul
9-22,
2012

47.5

30

11

5.5

1

0.5

n/a

1

0.5

3

^

Jul
23-Aug 5,
2012

44

32

14

4

2

1

n/a

0.5

0.5

1.5

0.5

Aug
13-26,
2012

44.5

32

14.5

5

2.5

^

n/a

1

^

0.5

^

Aug
27-Sep. 9,
2012

46.5

31

12.5

4.5

2.5

1

n/a

0.5

^

1

0.5

Sep
10-23,
2012

43.5

33

11.5

5

2.5

1.5

n/a

0.5

^

2

0.5

Sep
24-Oct 7,
2012

41.5

33.5

13.5

6.5

1.5

^

n/a

0.5

0.5

2

0.5

Oct
8-21,
2012

43.5

29

13

7.5

3.5

0.5

n/a

0.5

^

2

0.5

Oct
29-Nov 11,
2012

45.5

32.5

10.5

5

2

1

n/a

0.5

0.5

1.5

1

Nov
12-25,
2012

45

31.5

13.5

6.5

1

^

n/a

0.5

0.5

1.5

^

Nov
26-Dec 9,
2012

45.5

33.5

11

5

1.5

1

n/a

1

^

1

0.5

Jan
2-13,
2013

46

31.5

12

5

2

0.5

n/a

0.5

0.5

1.5

0.5

Jan
14-17,
2013

46

31.5

13.5

5.5

1.5

0.5

n/a

0.5

^

0.5

0.5

Jan
28-Feb 10,
2013

44

34.5

13.5

4

0.5

0.5

n/a

0.5

^

2

0.5

Feb
11-24,
2013

47.5

30.5

12.5

3

2.5

0.5

n/a

0.5

0.5

2

0.5

Feb
25-Mar 10,
2013

43.5

32.5

13.5

5

2

^

n/a

0.5

0.5

2

0.5

Mar
11- 24 ,
2013

44

34.5

13

3

2.5

0.5

n/a

0.5

1

1

^

Apr
1-14,
2013

40.5

35.5

13.5

5

2

0.5

n/a

0.5

0.5

1.5

0.5

Apr
15-28,
2013

46.5

31.5

11

4.5

1.5

1

n/a

0.5

0.5

2

1

Apr
29-May 12,
2013

44

32

12

5

2

1

n/a

1.5

0.5

1.5

0.5

May
13-26,
2013

41

35

12

4.5

2

0.5

n/a

0.5

0.5

2.5

1.5

Jun
3-16,
2013

44

33

11.5

6

2

1

n/a

0.5

-

2

^

Jun
17-30,
2013

46.5

31.5

13

3.5

1.5

0.5

n/a

-

0.5

2

1

Jul
1-14,
2013

47

31

11.5

4.5

2

1.5

n/a

0.5

^

1.5

0.5

Jul
15-28,
2013

51

29

10

4

1.5

1

n/a

1

^

1.5

1

Jul
29-Aug 11,
2013

44

34

14

3

2

0.5

n/a

0.5

^

1

1

Aug
12-25,
2013

44

31.5

14

5.5

2

0.5

n/a

0.5

0.5

1

0.5

Aug
26-Sep. 8,
2013

41

32.5

15

6.5

1

0.5

n/a

1

0.5

1.5

0.5

Sep
16-29,
2013

42

37

11.5

4.5

1

0.5

n/a

0.5

0.5

2

0.5

Sep
30-Oct 13,
2013

41.5

37

12.5

5

1.5

0.5

n/a

0.5

^

0.5

1

Oct
14-27,
2013

42

35.5

11

4.5

1.5

0.5

n/a

1

0.5

2.5

1

Oct
28-Nov 10,
2013

45.5

32

12.5

5

1.5

1

n/a

-

0.5

1.5

0.5

Nov
11-24,
2013

44.5

34

11

3.5

1.5

1

n/a

0.5

0.5

2

1.5

Nov
25-Dec 8,
2013

45

30.5

14.5

5

1.5

1

n/a

^

^

2

0.5

Jan
6-19,
2014

43.5

33.5

12.5

4

2

0.5

n/a

^

0.5

2.5

1

Jan
20-Feb 2,
2014

47

33

11

4.5

1.5

1

0.5

^

^

1.5

^

Feb
3-16,
2014

48

30

12

5.5

0.5

1

0.5

1

0.5

1

^

Feb
17-Mar 2,
2014

48.5

30.5

10.5

4.5

1.5

0.5

^

1

0.5

2.5

^

Mar
3-16,
2014

45.5

31.5

14

3.5

2

^

^

0.5

0.5

1.5

1

Mar
17-30,
2014

43

32

13

5.5

1.5

0.5

0.5

0.5

0.5

2.5

0.5

Mar
31-Apr 13,
2014

48.5

28.5

11.5

5.5

1

1

1

0.5

-

2

0.5

Apr 21-May 4,
2014

42.5

31

14.5

6

1

1

1.5

0.5

0.5

0.5

1

May
5-18,
2014

45.5

30.5

13.5

6

1

1

0.5

0.5

-

1

0.5

May
19-June 1,
2014

52.5

29

9

4.5

1.5

0.5

0.5

1

-

1

0.5

June
2-15,
2014

49.5

28

12

4

1

1.5

1

0.5

^

1.5

1

June
16-29,
2014

48

28

12

5.5

1.5

1

1.5

1

^

1

0.5

June
30-July 13,
2014

51

23.5

15

6

1

1

0.5

0.5

0.5

1

^

July
14-27,2014

46

30

12

5

1.5

1.5

1

0.5

0.5

1

1

August
4-17, 2014

48

27.5

11.5

6.5

1

1

1.5

0.5

0.5

1

1

*The
Maori Party was launched in July 2004; The Mana Party was
launched in April 2011. The Conservative Party was launched
prior to the 2011 New Zealand Election and first measured by
the New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll in July 2012. The Internet
Party was launched in January 2014.. ^ Result less than
0.5%.

The following table compares the latest
New Zealand Roy Morgan Polls on Voting Intention with the
result from the November 26, 2011 General Election:

National Party-led
Government*

Parliamentary

Opposition
Parties#

Election, November 8,
2008

51.84

48.16

Election,
November 26,
2011

50.41

46.21

ROY
MORGAN POLL

July
9-22, 2012

50

47

July
23-August 5,
2012

47

51

August 13-26,
2012

48

51.5

August 27-Sep.
9, 2012

49.5

49

Sep. 10-23,
2012

46.5

51

Sep. 24 –
Oct. 7, 2012

44

53.5

Oct.
8-21, 2012

47.5

50

Oct. 29
– Nov. 11,
2012

48.5

49

Nov. 12-25,
2012

47

51.5

Nov. 26 –
Dec. 9, 2012

48

50.5

Jan.
2-13, 2013

49

49

Jan.
14-17, 2013

48

51

Jan. 28
– Feb. 10,
2013

45

52.5

Feb. 11-24,
2013

51

46.5

Feb. 25 –
March 10,
2013

46.5

51

March 11- 24 ,
2013

48

51

April 1-14,
2013

43.5

54.5

April 15-28,
2013

49

48

April 29 – May
12, 2013

48

50

May 13-26,
2013

44

52

June 3-16,
2013

46.5

51.5

June 17-30,
2013

48.5

48.5

July 1-14,
2013

49.5

48.5

July 15-28,
2013

53.5

44

July 29 –
August 11,
2013

46.5

51.5

August
12-25, 2013

47

51.5

August
26 – Sep. 8,
2013

43.5

54.5

Sep. 16-29,
2013

44

53.5

Sep. 30-Oct
13, 2013

43.5

55

Oct 14-27,
2013

45

51.5

Oct 28-Nov 10,
2013

47.5

50.5

Nov 11-24,
2013

47

49.5

Nov 25-Dec 8,
2013

46.5

51

Jan 6-19,
2014

46

50.5

Jan 20-Feb 2,
2014

48.5

49.5

Feb 3-16,
2014

50

48.5

Feb 17-Mar 2,
2014

51.5

46

Mar 3-16,
2014

48.5

49

Mar 17-30,
2014

45.5

51

Mar 31–Apr
13, 2014

50

46.5

Apr 21-May
4, 2014

44.5

52.5

May 5-18,
2014

47

51

May 19-June 1,
2014

55

43

June 2-15,
2014

51

45.5

June 16-29,
2014

50.5

48

June 30-July
13, 2014

53

46

July 14-27,
2014

48.5

49.5

August 4-17,
2014

50

48

*National-led
Government: National Party, Maori Party, ACT NZ, United
Future; #Opposition Parties: Labour Party, Green Party, NZ
First, Internet-Mana Party alliance. Conservative Party &
Other not included as they are not represented in
Parliament.

Finding No. 5747 is taken from
Computer Report No. 2407

The Roy Morgan Poll is
conducted by the ONLY Australian and NZ
member of the Gallup International Association.

No other
public opinion poll taken in Australia or New Zealand has
this qualification.

NEW
ZEALAND: HEADING IN “RIGHT” OR “WRONG”
DIRECTION?

Electors were asked: “Generally
speaking, do you feel that things in New Zealand are heading
in the right direction or would you say things are seriously
heading in the wrong direction?”

A full service research organisation specialising in omnibus and syndicated data, Roy Morgan Research has over 70 years' experience in collecting objective, independent information on consumers. Roy Morgan Research was set up in New Zealand in the 1990s and has been collecting information across a wide range of industries in New Zealand ever since. Roy Morgan currently has over 10 years of trended data on a geographically and demographically representative sample of over 12,000 New Zealanders aged 14+.

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