Global growth will decline moderately in the coming years, both in advanced and emerging market economies. Persistent risks such as escalation of the trade war or a disorderly Brexit are a permanent concern in this slowdown.

At their G20 dinner date, the United States and China have agreed to stop imposing new tariffs for a period of 90 days. We regard this as can-kicking at best, and it arguably puts the US in an even stronger position going forward.

Our analysis shows that China disproportionately bears the brunt of a US-China trade war, especially in case of a further escalation. Although most losses end up in the US and China, their bilateral trade war also negatively affects third parties, such as the Eurozone and The Netherlands.

This Special re-assesses the economic impact of the US-China trade war, using more advanced methodologies. Our analysis shows that China disproportionately bears the brunt of a US-China trade war, especially in case of a further escalation.

On 24 September the United States have installed tariffs on another 200 billion USD imports from China. China responded with tariffs on 60 billion USD of imports from the US. We expect the negative economic effects to be more pronounced for China than for the US.

The economic picture for the largest economies is positive, while emerging markets are in a more difficult position. There is a substantial downward risk for the world economy, especially due to trade tensions between the US and its trade partners.

Driven by animosity vis-à-vis German cars and a sense of non-reciprocity by the EU on lower car tariffs, US President Trump is expected in the next few weeks to decide on whether the US will impose trade tariffs on cars. We assess the possible impact.

After months of de-escalating trade tensions, President Trump decided to start a global wrestle over trade. The problem with wrestling is that everybody ends up being bruised. Although India might be trying to avoid the punch-up, it is probably not immune to these kinds of economic shocks.