2013 Edmonton Oilers Prospects: #28 Daniil Zharkov

Daniil Zharkov is a classic case of “boom or bust”.

There are all sorts of things to like about a 6’3, 210+ pound winger with a rep as a one-shot scorer. The Belleville Bulls liked the big Russian enough to select him 13th overall in the 2011 CHL Import Draft, and slot him right into the line-up at 17, where he scored 23 goals in his (NHL) draft year. Along the way he impressed quite a few folks, albeit in both a positive and negative way in most cases. For every effusive comment about his offensive upside, there’d be another about his inconsistency and a third about his lacklustre defensive play. While there was hardly a consensus on his draft rankings, most of the major services had him ranked anywhere between a late first-rounder and a late second-rounder.

So when the Oilers snagged him way down at #91, a good one to two rounds later than all of those experts, it seemed too good to be true. Besides, given the pick itself was the cherry on top of the Dustin Penner trade, it seemed appropriate that it yield an economy-sized left winger with a penchant for scoring goals and a bigger one for driving fans and coaches nuts.

In this series a year ago — where we at the Cult of Hockey ranked him #17 among Oilers Calder-eligible prospects — I noted:

… Zharkov exploded from the starting blocks with 15 goals in his first 17 games, posting a solid +7 over that span, but then limped to the finish line with just 8 goals and -12 over his last 33 games. No doubt that slow finish, with a subtext of inconsistency, played heavily into Daniil’s slide down the draft rankings. At the point where Oilers got him, he was a swing-for-the-fences kind of pick (and not the first big cut of the day for the Oilers either).

He’s dropped all the way back to #28 this year, with the most optimistic among our three voters (me) tabbing Zharkov at #20, while my confreres David Staples and Jon Willis had him back around #30.

The Good: Zharkov is a gifted offensive player. He has high-end puck skills, above-average skating ability, and a plus shot. He’s the kind of talent who stands out when you watch him because of his ability to create a scoring chance out of nothing. He shows decent work ethic along the boards and can be a fine cycle game asset. Zharkov can flash solid passing ability too.

The Bad: His effort towards the defensive game could improve. Zharkov can also be victim to trying to do too much. His production this season was also slightly concerning for someone with his talent level.

Zharkov is a big, skilled winger, but his production simply has not come. Whether it is his hockey sense or his consistency, Zharkov has not been able to produce like his talent says he should.

The 2012-13 season saw very little of the expected bump in production numbers. True, Daniil bettered his rookie totals in all three boxcars, from 23-13-36 to 25-18-43. That’s in 9 more games, though, meaning his per-game production basically flatlined, and actually dropped a little on the goals side of the equation. The “Cy Young” nature of those boxcars suggest a player who maybe over-relies on his fastball. Counting his 16-year-old season in the USHL (36 GP, 8-3-11), Zharkov has posted lopsided boxcars of 56-34-90 in 145 regular season games on this continent. That’s fewer than one helper every four games from a would-be offensive player, this primarily in a league where only 30% of its offence translates to an NHL equivalent.

One seemingly positive development was the strong uptick in his plus/minus from -5 to +18, a reflection in quarter time of the team’s upgrade from a goal differential of -21 to +61. But that can be a chicken-and-egg thing; how much did Zharkov help the Bulls improve, and how much was the team’s improvement a rising tide that floats all boats? Was Zharkov steering the ship, or just along for the cruise out on the poop deck?

An excellent scouting report was provided during the OHL playoffs to Oilers Nation by Canucks blogger Thomas Drance, who noted:

Zharkov’s draft plus-one season hasn’t been as productive as perhaps Oilers fans and management were hoping. In 59 games with the Bulls this season, Zharkov managed forty-three points and twenty-five goals. Those aren’t numbers that scream “future NHL star” at you, but I would mention that Zharkov doesn’t usually play first unit power-play minutes for the Bulls and doesn’t factor into their top-line.

Well, that’s bad luck for the young chap. Still, the question doesn’t so much suggest itself as blurt itself out, “Why not?”

Then there’s the so-called Russian Factor, a phenomenon which is mentioned in hushed tones anytime a native of that country goes later in the draft than he “should”. This time, the epithet seems to have some legs, as after three years in North America Zharkov has decided to forego his last year of junior eligibility to turn pro in the KHL. A year after he said “Russian hockey is not my hockey any more; I don’t want to play in Russia” he signed a two-year deal with Torpedo Nizhny Novogorod. (Doesn’t get much more Russian than that!)

Worst fears realized, or simply a logical step? Put yourself in the skates of a 19-year-old kid, playing for peanuts eight time zones from home, being offered serious money to play professionally in his native country. Not a tough call. And from a developmental point of view, perhaps a better choice than a third year in the OHL. In Zharkov’s own words, “I spoke with my agent and my dad and we decided to play in the K because it’s really a good opportunity to develop myself there. It was a hard decision, but it is a pretty impressive league and it is pro hockey. I just have to show that I can compete at the pro level.”

On the other hand, that’s a league with a bit of a reputation for burying young players deep on the roster and providing little in the way of playing time. It’ll be up to Daniil to make the most of his opportunity and prove he deserves a regular shift.

KHL or no KHL, Zharkov should get a chance to play for his country at the World Junior, where he was a bronze medallist in 2013. He had an interesting role with the team, but with just one point (a goal, natch) in seven games there remained that question about driver or passenger. He’ll likely get another chance to answer it in 2013-14, a tournament that will likely give Oilers fans their best if not only chance to monitor his progress.

Zharkov was going to be a multi-year project in the best of circumstances, so it’s hardly the end of the world that he’ll be out of sight, out of mind for a while. The job in Russia is all well and good, Oilers fans just need be patient and see where his next contract takes him.

Expectations for 2013-14: Scratch out a role with Torpedo. Average ice time in the double digits could probably be considered a win.

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