July’s Non-Manufacturing ISM comes in Below Expectations

July’s non-manufacturing ISM came in at 46.4, compared to last month’s reading of 47.0 in June, and a market consensus of 48.2. July’s employment index moved to 41.5 from 43.4. The prices paid index moved to 41.3 from 53.7. Weakness in the employment index coupled with a weaker than anticipated ADP report could place negative pressure on Friday’s critical payroll release. The market had an immediate adverse reaction to the news. Seven of the 18 industries tracked by the index report gains in July, led by real estate, entertainment, and agriculture.

Non-Manufacturing ISM Breakdown:

Jul-09

Jun-09

May-09

Apr-09

Mar-09

Feb-09

Jan-09

NMI/PMI

46.4

47.0

44.0

43.7

40.8

41.6

42.9

Bus Activity

46.1

49.8

42.4

45.2

44.1

40.2

44.2

New Orders

48.1

48.6

44.4

47.0

38.8

40.7

41.6

Backlog Orders

42.0

46.0

40.0

44.0

41.0

36.5

37.5

New Export Orders

47.5

54.5

47.0

48.5

39.0

40.0

39.0

Inventory Sent

62.5

67.0

62.5

62.5

60.0

66.5

62.5

Imports

45.0

47.0

46.0

48.5

37.0

39.0

40.5

Prices Index

41.3

53.7

46.9

40.0

39.1

48.1

42.5

Employment

41.5

43.4

39.0

37.0

32.3

37.3

34.4

Supplier Deliveries

50.0

46.0

50.0

45.5

48.0

48.0

51.5

Additionally, July factory orders were also released at 10:00AM and they rose 0.4%, compared to a Bloomberg consensus of -0.8%. Non-durable goods orders rose 2.7% in June.

Contact Me:

Michael.McDonough@fiateconomics.com
Michael is an economist/strategist who has worked from Wall Street to Hong Kong primarily focusing on the U.S. and emerging markets. He has also written several columns. More

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