As Yogi Berra said….”it ain’t over ’til it’s over.”
As the SchifferLine goes to press, we’re sitting on proverbial ‘pins and needles’ awaiting the outcome of the final vote in Congress on the debt ceiling bill that would enable the US to avoid a default. Which ever way the vote goes, we do understand that while this ‘temporary’ fix-it bill will get us through this immediate crisis, the US still faces inexorably huge deficits and Congress and the President will have to get back to the drawing board soon. Needless to say, Yogi Berra — at 86 and in the Hall of Fame after spending 19 years almost all of them with the New York Yankees — is well known for his “it ain’t over, ’til it’s over” quote. But he like many others — had /have most notably a more apt view of where we’re going that applies today: “The future ain’t what it used to be!” How true

Remember the dire predictions for the 1984 Olympics? Oppressive heat… Traffic jams. Irate drivers, short tempers…. Chaos… Never happened…. And so it was with Carmageddon….the traffic was quite wonderful, thank you….and even a trio of 405 gate crashers had time to enjoy a short dining experience on the deserted freeway.
While I had escaped to my Coronado home to avoid the envisioned Westside mess, it turns out I probably didn’t need to leave the scene, and so the next time around when we do Carmageddon again in 11 months, who knows what we’ll do then? “When I got the all-clear about the freeway opening up again so early on Sunday, I actually felt like I had missed something special and was somewhat sorry that I had left town. In talking to the guards at Bel Air Crest gate, they “said it was boring!”
When I came home on Monday morning, the traffic was amazingly light…..it was like that all day on Monday, and then on Tuesday, we got back to our normal frenzy! I am sure you have all heard the talk about closing the freeway once a month so that we all can enjoy the change in the traffic patterns.
And so we are now smack in the middle of summer and real estate continues to heat up, too….as attested by the performance in my office…. Coldwell Banker Brentwood — the average price for a single residence in 2010 (as of June 30) was $1,552,000, but for the same period in 2011, the average price is $2,557,000. Now, this is good news. CB’s Brentwood office manager, Ellen Bergeron, stated that “The interesting thing about the market this year is that the number of units is slightly down, but volume is slightly higher. That is because this time last year the high end was very slow, and in the last year we have had a number of important transactions in the high end.” This year in my office, we have had an extraordinary number of high end transactions, $25,000,000, $17,000,000, $28,000,000! This of course skews the numbers.

On a national front, pending home sales rise in June….but don’t hold your breath

According to the National Board of Realtors (NAR), pending home sales increased in June 2011 following a down turn in April and then up in May. Activity increased in the West and South but declined in the Midwest and Northeast with all regions showing strong double-digit gains from a year ago. What this means, of course, that during this spring window, we are seeing some strength in home sales, which can affect the overall mood of buyers and sellers. Buoyed spirits are always good.
Based on the NAR’s Pending Home Sales Index — a forward-looking indicator based on contract signings, the Index rose 2.4 percent to 90.9 in June from 88.8 in May and is 19.8 percent above the 75.9 reading in June 2010, which was the low point immediately following expiration of the home buyer tax credit. The data reflects contracts but not closings but is a strong sign that home sales are moving in an upward direction.

I always take national surveys with some grain of salt since the four communities I report on — Beverly Hills, Beverly Hills Post Office, Bel-Air, and Brentwood — have consistently countered national trends, especially in down times. Yes, we do experience downturns, but our declines have not been as severe as other parts of the country, and conversely, our market improvements have come quicker and stronger because of the unique, inherent strengths in each of our communities.
At the end of the day, the real #s that count for you (and for me) is what is happening in our neighborhoods. But as we have seen with the recent, convoluted negotiations in Washington D.C., what happens “there” can have a dramatic impact on what happens “here”. Stay tuned.

*********************************************************************************************************************************************Big mortgages are back….and that’s good for many

Here’s some good news: Low-interest rates are driving high-end home buyers to super-sized mortgages as a pace unseen since the housing boom, but the deals may also have a limited shelf life. So-called jumbo loans—generally those bigger than $417,000—are a better bargain now than they have been in years according to Smart Money magazine. The average rate on a 30-year jumbo mortgage is 5.15%, down from 6.41% two years ago, according to mortgage data firm HSH Associates. That means the monthly payment on a 30-year $600,000 home loan is now about $3,280, some $480 less than the cost of the same loan two years ago, for an annual savings of nearly $5,800.
The report noted that not only are jumbo loans cheaper relative to historical rates, they are cheaper relative to smaller “conforming” loans, which are backed by Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and federal agencies. The difference between the rates on a jumbo mortgage and a conforming loan is just 0.43 percentage point, the narrowest spread since 2007. Since we are located in a market where jumbo loans are the rule, not the exception, this makes borrowing bigger amounts more attractive than it has been in recent years, and also presents opportunities for buyers who might have been previously locked out of pricey markets due to higher rates, says Stuart Gabriel, director of the Ziman Center for Real Estate at the University of California, Los Angeles.

Buyers already have taken advantage. Jumbo loans accounted for almost one in every six new mortgages, including new-home purchases and refinances, in the first quarter of 2011, according to Inside Mortgage Finance.

At that pace, Smart Money reported, the number of jumbo loans issued in 2011 could be the highest in five years, when the housing market was near its peak. That is in part because people are trying to lock in a government-backed jumbo loan now ahead of a planned limit reduction.
Starting in October, the federal government will start easing its support of jumbo loans as large as $729,750, which it began as an emergency measure three years ago. The new limits will vary by location, but will drop to $625,500 in top-tier markets such as New York, Los Angeles and Washington, D.C.
Many potential buyers are trying to take advantage of substantial price declines of expensive homes over recent years, Mr. Gabriel says. That includes people who bought well before the housing bubble and who are still significantly above water now and want to trade up while prices are low.

**********************************************************************************************************************************************Tax rolls up! Is that good news? Yes, if you’re looking for a recovery……

According to a recent article in the Los Angeles Times, for the first time in three years, the assessed valueof all property in Los Angeles and Orange counties has increased, which gives reason for optimism that the “real estate market in Los Angeles County and California is growing stronger and continues to recover,” according to LA County Assessor John R. Noguez.” Not being the one to endorse increased taxes for anyone, I find it an encouraging sign in a landscape that has mostly been littered with negativity in the past three years, that we look at the increased values for homes in our area to be a good thing. It validates what we are seeing in the strengthening of the real estate markets in Beverly Hills, Beverly Hills Post Office, Bel-Air, and Brentwood. Noguez, ever the optimist apparently, added that this was “probably a breath of fresh air that ‘hope’ is finally resurfacing.” Let’s hope so.

If you’re like me, every now and then the memory of a cool, delicious ice cream cone sweeps over me….and I’ll succumb to at least one scoop of my favorite ice cream which magically transports me back to my childhood or trips to Italy and its wonderful Gelato! My mom has always loved ice cream – and trying to be health conscious these days, I seldom take the ice cream plunge except when she’s with me, especially in Coronado where it’s almost a ‘must’ to stop by one of the two local ice cream stores. With one of them, I can always tell how busy the town is by the line outside the door as I drive by. “Oh, come, on,” she’ll say, “we’ll just have one scoop!” So, we do, and of course, I love to take my time licking away that cool chocolate ice cream. I want to make it last as long as I can.

Ice cream, I found out, has been with us thousands of years – when the Persians combined ice from the mountains with fruit as early as 400 BC….but ice cream – as we know it today — didn’t really get its start until 1718 in England when Mrs. Mary Ealies’s Recipe’s was published, providing the first true ice cream recipe. And today, we have plethora of frozen ice cream desserts — from Ben & Jerry’s to Haagen Daz to Italian gelato to non-fat yogurt. We have managed to transform these delicious, sweet frozen desserts into just about every taste to fit every palette. My favorite – when I get really weak and I’m with my Mom – is Chocolate Almond or Rocky Road; I just love those cute little marshmallows’, nuts, and rich chocolate ice cream inside a deep waffle cone. What is your favorite flavor????

***********************************************************************************************************************************************Power Boost for all of you ATT cell phone customers.

For all of you who are ATT cell phone customers and suffer from the weakness of the signal strength, there is a product called the ATT Microcell: http://www.att.com/shop/wireless/devices/3gmicrocell.jsp?fbid=tJeEyRzZZpw
I am told it would get your five bars anywhere in your house. This is only good for ATT subscribers…

After many delays, the work on the front entrance at Bel Air Crest is beginning this week. The finches have flown the nest and it has been verified by the Fish & Game Dept… so now what happens next? This coming Thursday evening (8/4) they will be cleaning and grubbing on the south side ONLY between the hours of 10 pm to 5 am. Then on Monday the 8th they will begin the installation of the K rails during both day and night time hours. On Wed the 10th the excavation work begins for 3 weeks and this will only be done during the night. They also will be doing the abutment and column construction during the day time.

***********************************************************************************************************************************************What are egg cartons made of?

An egg carton may be made from plastics such as Styrofoam or from recycled paper and molded pulp. One way to make your egg consumption a little more environmentally friendly is to ensure you buy eggs in paper based packaging as Styrofoam is difficult to recycle.

Recycling egg cartons

If the eggs you buy are in plastic packaging that isn’t Styrofoam; look for a triangle with a number inside it stamped on the packaging. This is a plastic resin code and depending on the number, it may be possible to place this packaging in your recycling bin. Even though the paper based version of the packaging is biodegradable, when thrown in with your general household rubbish it will likely wind up in landfill where the decomposition process takes a lot longer. Additionally, as the waste in landfill is buried, decomposition occurs in an anaerobic environment, which is one without oxygen. Microbes that thrive in anaerobic conditions give off potent greenhouse gases such as methane as they digest material. Methane has a Global Warming Potential (GWP) 62 times that of carbon dioxide. Instead of going into your general rubbish bin, paper based egg cartons should be put into your recycling bin; but given the nature of their construction, they also break down very quickly in compost piles – so you can use them to help benefit your garden.

Other uses for egg cartons

Egg cartons don’t have to be waste – there are other ways to use both the paper and plastic forms. Here are a few ideas. Inquire with your local primary/pre-schools if they need cartons for craft projects. I still remember an alligator I made with an egg carton when I was very young and using the cartons in class as a type of paint palette. Art departments also use the cartons for papier mache projects as essentially, paper based cartons are just papier mache themselves. Use the cartons as seedling starters – plastic egg cartons can also be used in this application. Handy for organizing small items such as nuts, bolts and screws. Use as packing materials when shipping goods. As a way of storing delicate Xmas tree decorations.

At the moment, I have a number of listings and quite a few coming up as well. I have two wonderful Canyon homes in Bel Air Crest, in addition a custom lot, and a few Custom homes that are not on the market. In Mountaingate, I have a fabulous home with an amazing ocean view, another smaller home with a pool that is available both for lease as well as for sale, and another great townhouse with an elevator. Here too, I have some homes that are not currently listed but will be coming on the market in the next month or so. Please let me know how I might assist you with any of your real estate needs.