UFC Fight Night 42: Henderson vs. Khabilov Predictions

#2 Benson Henderson vs. #11 Rustam Khabilov:

A win here won’t mean much for Benson Henderson, but it will for Khabilov, as it’s easily the biggest fight of his career. While we know Khabilov is good, we don’t really know how good he is, this fight will should gauge where the number 11 ranked Lightweight is truly at.

In his last fight with Josh Thomson we saw a close fight, where Henderson won a relatively controversial decision, and was out wrestled, which could be worrisome against a Sambo world champion in Khabilov who’s become known for his suplex inside the octagon.

However, I think Henderson being the more experienced and well-rounded guy will work in his favor in this one. Henderson needs to push the pace in this one by pressuring on the inside and landing those heavy leg kicks, as well as test the takedown defense of Khabilov.

The only way I see Khabilov taking the victory is if he is able to turn this fight into a grappling match. Which is why I’ll go with experience in Henderson.

Favorite:Henderson (-240) Underdog:Khabilov (+200)

My Pick:Henderson

Diego Sanchez vs. Ross Pearson:

Beating Diego Sanchez in Albuquerque won’t be any easy task, but Ross Pearson has the style to do it. The way you lose to Sanchez is by being goaded into trading in the pocket with him. However, the guys who beat Sanchez don’t get suckered into that, instead they’re usually technical strikers who outpoint him, which is exactly what I see Pearson doing.

Pearson needs to play it smart, keeping on the outside, and using his movement to land and frustrate Sanchez.

For Sanchez, aside from trying to force Pearson to stand and trade in the pocket, he should also look to grapple in this fight and put Pearson against the cage and simply out-muscle him.

Favorite:Pearson (-175) Underdog:Sanchez (+150)

My Pick:Pearson

#1 John Dodson vs. #5 John Moraga:

These guys have a lot in common, they have both recently fell short against the reigning UFC Flyweight champ Demetrious Johnson and they both have relatively similar skill-sets inside the octagon; Dodson and Moraga are both fairly good wrestlers with power in their hands.

Their differences, in my opinion, are where they’re going to win this fight. Moraga is the better Jiu-Jitsu fighter, and is much more likely to find the submission victory, in order to beat Dodson he will need to look to his grappling to push Dodson’s cardio and take away his explosiveness. And if he finds himself standing, he should look to keep the distance being the longer fighter to stay away from Dodson’s power.

As for Dodson, keeping it standing and using his athleticism and explosive power should win him this fight. But if Moraga does keep at distance, Dodson who is normally a counter striker, using his hand speed and power to land heavy punches, may need to throw combinations to close the distance and land big punches.

I’ll take Dodson in this 2010 rematch.

Favorite:Dodson (-515) Underdog:Moraga (+395)

My Pick:Dodson

#5 Rafael dos Anjos vs. Jason High:

Dos Anjos is getting back to work quickly following his loss to Khabib Nurmagomedov in late April. We saw dos Anjos be completely out-wrestled by Nurmagomedov, which Nurmagomedov has done to pretty much everyone, so that probably doesn’t tell the story of dos Anjos’ takedown defense.

Nevertheless, we will still likely see High, who is a very good wrestler, test the takedown defense of dos Anjos in this one. If High is able to get the fight to the mat and keep dos Anjos flat on his back, he has a good chance of coming away with this one.

For dos Anjos, he has the advantage on the feet and should look to mix things up with his attack to keep High guessing. And if High is able to take this fight to the mat dos Anjos needs to use that Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu black belt of his and attack off his back and look to get back to his feet.

Favorite:Dos Anjos (-295) Underdog:High (+245)

My Pick:Dos Anjos

Yves Edwards vs. Piotr Hallmann:

I honestly don’t have a clue as to why this fight is on the main card, aside from the fact that it has potential to be exciting.

Hallmann is one of those guys who seems decent everywhere, but not overwhelmingly good in one area. If I had to say where Hallmann is best, I’d probably say his striking is the best part of his game, which is good here considering Edwards’ chin has been suspect as of late, if Hallmann is able to connect he could walk away with a knockout.

As for Edwards, he’s well past his prime at age 37, but is still an extremely well-rounded mixed martial artist. While he hasn’t looked great in split decision losses to Daron Cruickshank and Issac Vallie-Flagg, he hasn’t looked bad either.

I’ll take experience over youth, Edwards can get back on track with a win here, or else he could find himself cut from the UFC.

Favorite:Hallmann (-175) Underdog:Edwards (+150)

My Pick:Edwards

#12 Erik Perez vs. #14 Bryan Caraway:

These two are in very similar circumstances. Both guys were riding impressive win streaks until dropping split decisions to Takeya Mizugaki and both came back with impressive victories following the losses.

Both are also primarily grapplers with a majority of their victories coming via submission. The grappling should be pretty close in this one, but Caraway being the wrestler should be able to get on top and control Perez.

Perez may want to look to avoid Caraway’s takedowns and keep the fight on the feet where he has a clear advantage.

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