The system, moving toward the west-northwest, was designated Invest 93L by the NHC today.

The NHC Tropical Weather Outlook gives it a 20 percent chance of becoming a depression, or Tropical Storm Ian, over the next five days. The NHC’s forecast map shows it ultimately north well east of the Bahamas.

Some early forecast models, though, suggest a path toward the Florida peninsula.

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FADING IN THE PACIFIC: La Niña chances for this fall and winter are slip-sliding away. In the latest analysis issued today, NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center swapped August language calling for a 55-60 of a La Niña to a 55-60 percent chance for continuing neutral conditions.

Forecaster enthusiasm for a fall/ winter La Niña has been declining all summer. As recently as June, the CPC was calling for a 75 percent chance of a La Niña.

Conditions in the tropical Pacific have a major influence on North America’s winter weather, and on the Atlantic hurricane season. La Niña winters in Florida tend to be warm and dry, while having a La Niña in place during hurricane season lowers wind shear and allows more tropical systems to develop.

La Niña features below normal water temperatures in the tropical Pacific, while El Niño — which was responsible for Florida’s stormy winter of 2015-2016 — features above-normal water temperatures.

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RECORD WATCH: The low in Melbourne Wednesday tied a 60-year-old record for warmest minimum temperature. It was 79 degrees.

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Path of the Galveston Hurricane. (Credit: NWS-Tampa)

HURRICANE HISTORY: Today is the 116th anniversary of the deadliest natural disaster in U.S. history. The Great Galveston Hurricane walloped the Texas coast with winds over 130 mph and a 15-foot storm surge. The storm destroyed more than 3,500 homes and killed more than 8,000.

The 1900 hurricane was the subject of the 2015 book, Storm of the Century, by TV weather personality Al Roker. The book details the meteorological origins of the storm and reasons why residents had little time to prepare for it, but it also packs plenty of drama with accounts of people living on the barrier island at the time and how they reacted to events as they unfolded.