“So the question is now, do we want to be divided into red states and blue states, or do we all want to be Americans voting for president just the way as our brothers and sisters in other states across the country? Both parties should be competing for a national mandate, should be competing for support from a majority of Americans.”…

“I don’t know of any place in the debates among the Founding Fathers where they said that a small sliver of swing states should determine who becomes president,” he said.

***

The best case for passing the law might be this map from the National Popular Vote group, which shows how many 2012 presidential campaign events were held in each state between the party conventions and the election:

This got me wondering: Which states get the worst deal from the Electoral College, technically speaking? Everyone knows that the good people of Wyoming make out like bandits, but which voters are least represented in a presidential contest?

I assumed that since the least populated states are the most preposterously over-represented, the largest states, like California and Texas, would suffer the most when compared against the ideal of a “one-person, one vote” standard.

N.P.V. is a good idea for all sorts of high-minded civic reasons. When an election is for a single office and only one candidate can win, it’s obviously outrageous when the candidate who gets more votes somehow loses to the one who gets fewer. But that doesn’t happen very often—”only” four of our thirty-nine elected Presidents, including “only” one of the two most recent, made it to the White House despite the citizenry’s preference for somebody else. What’s more outrageous is what happens every time: four-fifths of the states are ignored in the general election.

If you live in one of those states, you see neither hide nor hair of the Presidential and Vice-Presidential nominees, scarcely even in television commercials. Grassroots politics does not exist in your state as far as the Presidential campaign is concerned, because there’s no point in ringing your neighbors’ doorbells if the statewide outcome is a foregone conclusion. The relative power of money vs. people is magnified, because while campaign cash is raised everywhere, including your state, it gets funnelled exclusively into places like Ohio and Florida. And, between elections, states like yours get measurably less federal attention and federal money, per capita, than is lavished on the swingin’ few.

The absence of red states from the roster is due largely to to a suspicion among Republican politicians and operatives that N.P.V. is somehow an attempt to get revenge for 2000. In opinion polls, Republican rank-and-filers, as distinct from Party professionals, strongly favor the idea of popular election. And a nontrivial number of Republican pros favor the plan itself.

***

Here’s the problem: All the states to have joined so far are very blue. Until some purple states and red states sign on, the compact has little in the way of territory to conquer…

Perhaps the compact can get Delaware, Connecticut and Maine to join, where Obama also won by 15 percentage points or more. But they account for only 14 total electoral votes (and Maine already has a unique way of apportioning electoral votes). Oregon and New Mexico also re-elected Obama by double-digit margins — and those two states have become increasingly off-limits to Republican presidential candidates — but have just 12 electoral votes between them.

After that, you get into states such as Michigan and Minnesota, which are blue-leaning but that receive plenty of attention from presidential campaigns. Their votes might not be quite as influential in the Electoral College as the campaigns presume — a Democrat who lost Minnesota would probably be in too much trouble elsewhere to cobble together a 270-vote majority. Still, they receive an influx of media dollars and political pandering every four years, and probably have little incentive to bite the hand that feeds them.

Soon after comes outright swing states, such as Ohio, New Hampshire and Colorado. These states, along with Florida, Virginia, Nevada, Iowa, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, collectively had a 98.6 percent chance of determining the Electoral College winner in 2012, according to the FiveThirtyEight tipping-point index as it was calculated on election morning. In other words, these nine states are 70 times more powerful than the other 41 (which collectively had a 1.4 percent chance of determining the winner) combined. That’s part of the reason so many Americans object to the Electoral College. But states whose voters have a disproportionate amount of influence may be in no mood to give it up.

***

Why are Democrats pushing this plan?

Democrats usually see a smaller percentage of their people go to the polls than Republicans do.

Under the current system, however, majority support does not guarantee electoral success. In any given election, one party or the other can have an advantage based on the vagaries of the leanings of a few swing states. Republicans used to have an edge, but in recent elections, pundits like Nate Silver of 538 convincingly argue that Democrats have had an edge. The 2016 race, however, is anyone’s guess. We know that there will be a distortion — but we don’t know who it will help…

Nothing would be better for restoring Americans’ faith in their elected officials if those officials made it clear that voters and their democracy come first. Our political leaders should be willing to allow fair completion and encourage high participation in exchange for earning the consent of the governed as intended by our Constitution.

Blowback

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And the State absolutely hates Charter, private or homeschooling. Because they can’t do their Marxist indoctrination in them.

oscarwilde on April 18, 2014 at 1:55 AM

They damn well should.

My mom works for the BOE in NYC (non-teacher), and a friend works at one of the Brooklyn Charter schools, and the difference between the kids is night and day…

If they’re so hopped up to close schools, they could retool at least a good 1/5 of the 4th grade to JHS level schools and maybe a 1/3 of the High Schools tomorrow and we actually have a generation of classes that will have a chance at a future that doesn’t involve earning a paycheck via the State.

Wishes and Dreams I know, but I’m telling you, another 20 years of turning out students like this and we are SO screwed.

the 14 car is 12th in points…no win yet..
right now there are two cars outside the top 16
with wins…the 4 and 41…
and LB..is a great venue…and a very good street course..
ive been to the LBGP maybe 2 dozen times..
used to walk from my apartment..
one hell of a party in the streets at night..

Let’s just split into Red States and Blue States, each with their own elected government. So, we’ll have two administrations running simultaneously. One of the first orders of business for the Red States will be to build a border fence…and keep it manned. That way, when inhabitants of the failing Blue States decide they’ve had enough and want to migrate to the thriving Red States, they’ll be SOL.

It may take a few years, but the Blues WILL want to escape the bloated, over-taxed, over-regulated, welfared-out, crime ridden, socialist hell hole. And we will greet them at the fence with a smile and a wave, saying, “So sorry, but you were correct in 2014. That WAS the final amnesty.”

Also known as “Zak” Starkey…….he took lessons from and supposedly got his first drum kit from Keith Moon….who may be the best 4/4 time drummer Ever…

Lucky enough to see Zak with The Who in 2006 – and it was like seeing and hearing The Who with Keith Moon reincarnated!…….Zak hit the skins with the force that Only Moon had before him, and he looked like Keith onstage…..it was impressive!

I used to think that way..
cut it in half…along say the Mississippi..
but the real trouble isn’t a red state or a blue.
most states are red all over till you get to the cities.
when Detroit votes ..it doesn’t matter what we think out here..
when Chicago votes.. it doesn’t matter what they think in Peoria.
when Vegas votes.. it doesn’t matter that Winnemucca says..
you could go thru the states one by one…
its the cities .. and he coast that are blue..
so my new thought is….wall off the cities…
sell them the needed supplies that they need…food power timber oil..
and we can buy what ever it is the city contributes to society..
which is …nothing

Actually, young G, I went and grabbed my gear and started working out. :) And I went and got my gloves. And I need to get a couple hours in before this weekend. I guess everyone thinks I just make this crap up as I go ’cause of the occasional 400 pound transvestite hooker stories.

Apologies. I didn’t make a clear statement. I completely agree about the cities. Of course, the whole scenario is just a dream I have. But, I would prefer that the population has the opportunity to choose their “side” and adequate time to move to their new locale, if necessary. Perhaps, there would be a total of 4-5 large Blue states and the same for Red states. Since I’m dreaming, let’s say that both “sides” begin with an equal allotment of funds, natural resources and access to ports, etc.

I would still be interested in watching the deterioration of the new Blue states, from a distance. :)

Let’s just split into Red States and Blue States, each with their own elected government. So, we’ll have two administrations running simultaneously. One of the first orders of business for the Red States will be to build a border fence…and keep it manned. That way, when inhabitants of the failing Blue States decide they’ve had enough and want to migrate to the thriving Red States, they’ll be SOL.

It may take a few years, but the Blues WILL want to escape the bloated, over-taxed, over-regulated, welfared-out, crime ridden, socialist hell hole. And we will greet them at the fence with a smile and a wave, saying, “So sorry, but you were correct in 2014. That WAS the final amnesty.”

I’m sorry..I was confusing you..I meant to say NASCAR should move Sears Point to one of the last 10 races and move one of the “cookie cutter ” tracks out of the last 10 races..Right now there are no road course races in the chase where it really counts (last 10 races)..We need one..imho..:)

yes one in the chase…but not sears…
not a great road course for those cars..
to much follow the leader up and down the hill…
it has no true straightaway..
they don’t run the interloop… they should..
it would add two passing zones…

you know what I watch often is
the Australian V8 supercars…
the tracks are too small sometime for my tastes..
but the cars are simple and quick..
and mt panorama Bathurst is one of the worlds best tracks..

shipped my files out for the morning to the left coast..
going to crash for a bit..
thanks DS, I’ll leave you with the
last two laps of a 1000k v8 supercar race from Bathurst..
(yes after a thousand kilometers.. this close for the win)
this is what a proper road course track should look like IMO.. cheers

How about getting Congress to shift its butt closer to 1:30,000 representation so that there is a closer demographic match between the House and the People?

The House was meant to be the least manageable, most representative and most highly contentious body in the federal system and it only gets that via good representation. All past problems of the House being ‘unmanageable’ go away with modern data systems. Most of those systems are already in place and as a House member you can vote from your offices.

Add the number of Representatives to their full time and part time staff, you know the people doing the REAL WORK in the offices, and then divide that amount into the population size and you come very, very close to 1:30,000. So the Representatives offices already have enough room for all those people and with laptops and cellphones, connectivity is ALREADY THERE.

Once you get around 10,000 members of the House you then have a very representative system and the Electoral College then mimics that and the ‘over weight’ voters from small States have their votes leveled out by the increased number of Electors sent to the Electoral College.

It isn’t that the system is overburdened or needs direct democracy: it is that the People are not represented well enough to have individuals that more closely align with their outlook.

Mind you this would destroy the two party system in the name of increased democracy, but it would do so in a way that does not give large States an over-ride of their people when a popular vote goes a different way in their State from the rest of the Union.

1:30,000 – technically feasible, puts a brake on big government, allows people to be represented in a more equal fashion and puts more power down lower in the system instead of concentrating it higher up.

Plus awarding by a system other than given in the Constitution requires an Amendment: it is what the States signed on to and if they want a different system they can jolly well start the Amendment process off.

To change the size of the House all you need is a majority in the House.

Good morning ladies and gentlemen. Looks like the weekend will have good weather.

crankyoldlady on April 18, 2014 at 6:18 AM

Morning COL and other fine folks of HotAir. Rain today and Saturday, but nice on Sunday. Just in time for Easter! All our kids will be home for Easter except for one. Our Easter is both observance and me drunk wearing bunny ears and the kids chomping on peeps (YUCK) and chocolate bunnies. Fun times…fun times ahead.

Oh yea….Happy Good Friday and Glorious Easter to all, both sinners and Saints.

I wonder if one state could do that. Illinois for instance would do much better without Chicago dragging them down. They should look into it.

crankyoldlady on April 18, 2014 at 6:28 AM

There is only one tiny part of Chicago that anyone would ever come to Illinois for, unless one came to do business. Agriculture is king, and so Caterpillar and John Deere have been here forever. Otherwise, it’s a huge, flat, boring place, with little to speak for it.

Chicago is a very large ghetto wrapped around the gleaming jewel that is the Lake Michigan shoreline, from the museum campus to Lincoln Park. The rest of the city is a self-perpetuating dump, like most cities.

Heck, I think splitting up the United States would be better. I’m tired of Libs and looters from New York City, Chicago, L.A. etc. etc. using Washington D.C. to loot me. That’s what we have come to, and changes in the electoral college won’t change that.

Last I heard Axe was multi-tasking and combining yard work with his work out. He was weed eating his back hair while outside. Ole’ boy put the stroke in two-stroke! Best we not speak of a hose pipe ban in his area.

Why? In Illinois we elect increasingly idiotic liberals to the Senate (RINO extraordinaire Mark Kirk is a one-term wonder), like Dick Durbin. The Demonrats hold a supermajority in both houses of the General Assembly. They would appoint someone just as stupid as Durbin.

What would be gained, exactly?

Jaibones on April 18, 2014 at 1:06 AM

I was winding down & getting sleepy, so didn’t reply to you:-)

My reason is that it would give power back to the States. We elect the State Senators & House members. As it is now, we the people have little say or method other than voting for or against an incumbent. Every 6 years for U.S. Senate on a rotating basis.

Yes, in certain States as you mention it may not make a difference at first. But at least the voters in the State as a whole can vote for their State Reps.

I have no evidence to back-up any of that … and in fact, I don’t even believe … any of that.
It’s the best illustration I could come up with, to point out that anyone can say anything about anyone … when they don’t have to prove it.

What’s your grounds/basis for any of those statements you made?
.

. . . . . and will be one of The First People Set On Fire when The Revolution Comes…..

williamg on April 18, 2014 at 1:44 AM

.
…..because__________________________________________
.

…I hope it’s televised….

williamg on April 18, 2014 at 1:44 AM

.
Why do you hope anyone being burned (I assume you mean “burned alive”) is televised?

…..I know you love Glenn……I’ve spent time listening to him – and I think he’s a phony, a poseur on the Level of O’Reilly and Gerry Rivers and Chris Matthews………he’s self contradictory and disingenuous – a LOT…..he can’t complete a continuous and coherent thought or thought process…….and I think he’s dangerous…..he thinks only of how he can make Grin Bleck “bigger” (much like O’Reilly)…..I despise him…..

….sorry – we just have different views of him…..I really, really, really don’t like him…..

listens2glenn on April 18, 2014 at 11:46 AM
…..I know you love Glenn……I’ve spent time listening to him – and I think he’s a phony, a poseur on the Level of O’Reilly and Gerry Rivers and Chris Matthews………he’s self contradictory and disingenuous – a LOT…..he can’t complete a continuous and coherent thought or thought process…….and I think he’s dangerous…..he thinks only of how he can make Grin Bleck “bigger” (much like O’Reilly)…..I despise him…..

….sorry – we just have different views of him…..I really, really, really don’t like him…..

williamg on April 18, 2014 at 11:51 AM

Wow, and I thought Glenn Miller………

……….was an American big band musician, arranger, composer, and bandleader in the swing era. He was the best-selling recording artist from 1939 to 1943, leading one of the best known big bands.

I believe the number is lower now than these 2009 numbers..
but Cat is now mostly an offshore company…(mexico)
sad to say.. they couldn’t afford UNION wages even in Peoria..
I took a short contract design job once in Peoria..so I lived there for a bit…its a mess .. and depressing to see ..
over half the citizens have left…

“As of December 31, 2009, Caterpillar employed 93,813 persons of whom 50,562 are located outside the United States. Current employment figures represent a decline of 17,900 employees compared the third quarter of 2008.[3] Due to the restructuring of business operations which began in the 1990s, there are 20,000 fewer union jobs in the Peoria, Illinois area while employment outside the U.S. has increased.”

This is where I get lost. The same voters have the opportunity to remove Dick Durbin every six years, and every six years the Democrat/Mob coalition returns the retard to office. Our choice.

Is a Dem supermajority of district reps somehow more likely to remove him? Why?

Jaibones on April 18, 2014 at 11:14 AM

Well, for one thing it’s not the same voters every 6 years and that is one thing. 6 years is a long time to wait to even have the opportunity to vote. On the other hand, don’t your State Reps come up for re-election every 2 years? I just think if the Legislators would elect the U.S. Senators & House members, then pressure could be put on them every two years. Clearly the current system isn’t working:-)

Your State is a case all by itself tho:-)

I’m not sure how this change would even come about anyway, as I’ve not studied it. From what I understand it was this way before.

Under the National Popular Vote Compact, which Gov. Cuomo signed off on Tuesday, the state has agreed to award its electoral college votes to whichever presidential candidate wins the national popular vote…

Under the National Popular Vote Compact, which Gov. Cuomo signed off on Tuesday, the state has agreed to award its electoral college votes to whichever presidential candidate wins the national popular vote…

That is, until a Conservative or Republican wins the popular vote.

RJL on April 18, 2014 at 4:03 PM

You don’t suppose this is prep for the influx of the Amnesty voters, do you? I do.