Anyone perusing the shelves of the Bay Area's liquor emporiums or the back bars of watering holes like the Ritz Bar at the Ritz-Carlton San Francisco, with its more than 80 malt whiskies, might have a hard time believing there is a shortage of single-malt scotch.

But that is the problem facing many scotch distilleries, due to a lack of foresight in laying down sufficient vintages in the past, coupled with increasing demand for older single malts. So, while you may be able to find the heavily peated Ardbeg 10-year-old, you can pretty much forget about snagging a bottle of the more subtly smoked Ardbeg 17-year-old scotch -- the distillery ran out of it a few years ago.

"Right now, everything over 14 years old is in jeopardy," says Howard Meister, owner of the Wine & Liquor Depot in Van Nuys. With close to 700 brands, Meister's store is the largest retail source for single-malt whisky in the United States.

"I started building my stocks of single malts years ago," he says, "before they started really taking off . . . I remember being the laughingstock of the other retailers. Now, many of them are calling me searching for certain aged whiskies for their customers. But there just isn't that much to go around anymore."

Not since Scotland's first illicit stills began trickling out spirits in the 18th century has demand been higher and supplies scarcer. Although Scotland's approximately 100 distilleries produce more than 10 million cases of scotch a year, most are blends; only about 2 percent ends up in the much smaller -- but more profitable -- category of single malts. According to the Scotch Whisky Association, blended scotch sales have been relatively flat for the past five years while single-malt sales worldwide have soared an average of 9 percent annually during that same period, with a notable surge of 15 percent in 2004. That means growing demand for a product that was relatively scarce in the first place.

Blends cut into stocks

Compounding the problem is the fact that blends are made by combining a number of single malts with grain alcohol to produce a "blended scotch," such as Johnnie Walker Red Label, which uses 35 different single malts, or Cutty Sark, which gets its smooth heather texture in part from Glenrothes, one of the primary single malts in its recipe.

A single malt, by comparison, is a single, unblended whisky made in only one distillery. For many, a single malt is the very essence of a distillery's character, reflecting its water, barley and barrels. Distilleries get higher prices for single malts, compared with blends, but the downside is, they have to age them for lengthy periods of time, thus tying up inventory -- and money.

"A lot of independent bottlers -- those who buy whisky from distilleries and then bottle it under their own labels, like Cadenhead -- are having problems because they're running out of product," says Meister. "Cadenhead is keeping what little older stocks they have for their own stores in England and Scotland."

By law, single-malt scotch must be at least 3 years old, but no distiller in his/her right mind releases a spirit that young. Malt whiskies don't reach perfection until they are, on average, 10 to 18 years old. Some, like Laphroaig's 30-year-old and the Macallan Millennium 50-year-old, push the distiller's skills to the limit. As with wine, whiskies can be barrel-aged past their peak. But the older the spirit is, the more money it brings.

Although we live in a high-tech age, it still takes 30 years to make the Dalmore 30-year-old the Stillman's Dram.

This obvious fact was relatively ignored until a few years ago, when the Lagavulin distillery on Islay suddenly discovered it was running out of its slightly sweet and immensely smoky 16-year-old single malt, because too much had been sold over the years for blends, primarily for JohnnieWalker Black and J&B. As a quick fix, the distillery introduced Lagavulin 12-year-old Cask Strength, a 115.6 proof, right-from-the-barrel powerhouse that shaved four years off the waiting time. Currently warehoused barrels will reach their 16- year goal and once again be bottled, but that does nothing for the shortage of 16-year-old Lagavulin today.

Distillers caught sleeping

The scarcity of older whiskies and accompanying higher prices are apparent in rich, resinous the Macallan 18-year-old, which -- even at discounted prices -- has risen from $76 to $110 within the last year, while the Macallan 30-year-old has jumped from $349 to $560 in that same period.

"Single malts are the only sector within the Scotch whisky category that has this shortage problem," says Ronnie Cox, director for Glenrothes International. "It is totally unprecedented and unforeseen. Neither past sales nor current projections had prepared us for this situation. Simply put, the industry -- Glenrothes included -- did not prepare for the proper amount of whisky stocks to be laid down for this type of boom."

Cox is acutely aware of whisky shortages. By law, only the youngest year can be put on whisky labels, even though older spirits from the same distillery may be added to maintain a taste profile. In other words, a 12-year- old may also contain some 14- and 16-year-old single malts.

Glenrothes only releases single malts that are vintage-dated, rather than by years of barrel aging. Thus, the Glenrothes 1992 (a 12-year-old bottled in 2004) and the 16-year-old Glenrothes 1987 (bottled in 2003) must be distilled in those specific years.

"Unlike blended whiskies," Cox says, "where one can draw from other distilleries to replace or replenish stocks, a single malt bottled from a single distillery is not instantly replaceable. It is, by its very nature, a limited-edition item."

This has led to the Macallan's recent introduction of the Macallan Fine Oak 10-, 15- and 21-year-old single malts. These are "vattings" -- combinations of single malts from the same distillery and not to be confused with blends, which use single malts from different distilleries -- of single malts aged in both used sherry and used American bourbon barrels. They represent a major departure from Macallan's legendary 100 percent sherry- barrel-aged whiskies.

The Macallan Fine Oak contains 50 percent whisky that has been aged in white oak barrels previously used to age bourbon. This produces lighter whiskies of varying degrees, depending on their ages, which Macallan hopes will appeal to those who might shy away from its heavier, sherried single malts. Another impetus for the Fine Oak finish is that it stretches Macallan's dwindling supply of older sherry-barrel-aged whiskies by vatting them with their bourbon-barrel counterparts.

Springbank, a distillery that -- like Macallan -- never sold its single malts for blends, is noted for its wonderfully complex and elegant aged whiskies. Many of its 25- to 50-year-old single malts have become collector's items. But last year, a bottling of Springbank 15-year-old represented the last of the oldest whisky left in its Campbeltown warehouse. That significance was made even clearer a few months ago, when Springbank introduced a 10-year- old.

"For years we were quite successful with aged single malts," says Henry Preiss, president of Springbank's importer, Preiss Imports in Ramona (San Diego County). "Now there isn't that much around. Now they have to buy back some of their 30- and 21-year-old whiskies from individual wholesalers. Like many distilleries, they were selling too much without planning for the future."

Whisky shortages have reached such extremes that one distillery began vatting its 12-year-old single malt with whiskies from other distilleries. This caused such turmoil within the industry that the offending party was forced to relabel its product as "pure malt" rather than single malt.

Another factor contributing to the shortage of single malts is their recent discovery by the under-40 crowd in China. Forget the fact that young Chinese might mix it with green tea; it is common for groups at karaoke bars to go through a bottle of scotch in an hour. Even though they may be sipping blends, it taps into the shrinking supply of single malts.

A glimmer of hope

But there is hope. Glenlivet, the best-selling single malt in America, still has stocks for its limited Cellar Collection, which is comprised of the best and oldest whiskies in its warehouse. The Glenlivet 40-year-old 1964 bottling was released last year. Caol Ila launched a 118.8-proof, cask- strength 25-year-old powerhouse. Talisker, famous for its 10-year-old semi- peaty single malt, has introduced a gently muscular, slightly floral 18-year- old. And Preiss Imports has acquired a supply of Benriach 12-, 16- and 20-year- old single malts, and is also importing cask-strength whiskies from independent bottler Duncan Taylor, who, according to Preiss, "won't touch anything less than 21 years old."

There is evidence that distilleries have learned from their mistakes. When an appropriately named 6-year-old Very Young was bottled for Ardbeg's board of directors, it met with such acclaim that a decision was made to sell it in the United Kingdom, but not in the United States. The fear was that America's larger market would deplete remaining barrels that would otherwise mature into older whiskies.

And because of whisky shortages, at least half a dozen dormant distilleries have been revived, including Bruichladdich, Tullibardine, Glengyle and Tormore.

"People have been enjoying the really good stuff for years, with no thought to the future," Preiss says. "Now the time has come to take stock of the situation."