Diaries

On the “Weekly Rich Rodriguez Coach’s Radio Show” on 26 August 2010 at about 43 minutes into the show, Dave Brandon said the following (and I quote exactly but emphasis was added):

“One of the things few things that annoy me about some of the feedback I get is like, you know, ‘Dave, money isn’t important do this cause this is what feels good to me.’ But money is incredibly important….

….So my job is to leverage the assets associated with football whether it be merchandizing, or licensing, or the stadium, or the gate. Everything and anything we can do. And any Michigan fan should want us to maximize those revenuesbecause it affords us the ability to invest in Crisler arena and the player development center and all the things that are so important to building this brand and building this program.”

I felt sick to my stomach when I first heard this and it has bothered me ever since. Notice Brandon did not say to make reasonable revenue but to “MAXIMIZE” revenue. Maximize: “to make as big or as large as possible.”

I wanted to see how many prospects Michigan will be targeting for 2011. I took the Depth Chart by Class and modified it.

Kelvin Grady is in () because it is unclear whether he has a scholarship or not. I am leaning toward not simply because he is not financially strapped and does not need one. He is not counted in the total

DE S. Watson or SS M.Williams are uncounted because they are buried on the depth chart and unlikely to be asked back for a 5th Year.

LB B. Herron is uncounted because it is unlikely he will see the field this year or the next and will not be asked back for a 5th Year.

I would like to know what actual football people think about whether those 3 players will be asked back for a 5th Year.

SCHOLARSHIP COUNT: 65

Current Commits: 11 (this includes Antonio Kinard)

I believe Michigan will be looking to sign 9 more players for the Class of 2011.

Will Michigan have a winning record this year, how close are we, and where do we need to improve to get there? I decided to look at National Rankings for Offense and Defense and the corresponding Win/Loss record.

I reviewed all the offensive and defense stats and Scoring Offense and Defense has the best correlation to wins and losses. (This is probably obvious but some folks seem to get all excited about Total Offense and Defense based on yardage. Last time I checked, yardage has never determined the winner of a football game.) There are now 120 FBS teams so I picked a rank of #60 for the analysis.

For the past ten years:

98% of teams that are ranked #60 or higher for both Scoring Offense and Scoring Defense had winning records.

62% of teams that are ranked #60 or higher for either Scoring Offense or Scoring Defense (but not both) had winning records.

6% of teams that are ranked #60 or higher for neither Scoring Offense nor Scoring Defense had winning records.

Here is a table showing National Rankings for the last 10 years:

The number of teams that finished with BOTH Scoring Offense and Defense Ranked in the Top 60. Of those, the number with winning records, and the % with winning records.

The number of teams that finished with EITHER Scoring Offense or Defense Ranked in the Top 60. Of those, the number with winning records, and the % with winning records.

The number of teams that finished with NEITHER Scoring Offense nor Defense Ranked in the Top 60. Of those, the number with winning records, and the % with winning records.

Year

Both Top 60

WR

%

Just One

WR

%

Neither

WR

%

2009

34

34

100%

51

30

59%

35

2

6%

2008

37

37

100%

42

30

71%

40

2

5%

2007

34

33

97%

52

33

63%

33

1

3%

2006

31

30

97%

52

35

67%

36

4

11%

2005

34

33

97%

50

29

58%

33

1

3%

2004

31

29

94%

58

28

48%

28

4

14%

2003

42

42

100%

34

22

65%

41

2

5%

2002

40

39

98%

35

25

71%

42

3

7%

2001

38

37

97%

45

29

64%

32

1

3%

2000

37

37

100%

43

24

56%

34

3

9%

Total

358

351

98%

462

285

62%

354

23

6%

The next table shows Offensive and Defensive PPG for teams ranked #1, #60, and #120 (or last team when there were less than 120):

Offense PPG

Defense PPG

Year

#1

#60

#120

#1

#60

#120

2009

42.21

27.42

11.46

10.43

25.46

43.08

2008

51.14

24.38

12.67

9.00

24.67

47.58

2007

43.38

27.85

15.08

12.80

27.00

45.10

2006

46.86

23.42

9.58

11.00

22.80

41.70

2005

50.15

26.64

9.73

10.70

24.82

45.30

2004

49.75

24.82

14.00

11.30

25.50

42.60

2003

43.00

26.83

11.17

11.00

25.50

39.30

2002

45.62

27.25

13.92

11.80

26.30

47.20

2001

46.77

26.58

10.82

9.40

25.70

45.00

2000

44.91

25.55

8.73

9.60

25.50

41.10

Average

46.38

26.07

11.72

10.70

25.33

43.80

Now, let’s look at a table showing Rich Rodriguez’s National Ranking at WVU and Michigan.

Year

Offense National Rank

Defense National Rank

WVU

Rushing

Passing

Total

Scoring

Rushing

Passing

Total

Scoring

TOM

Record

2001

36

96

80

89

104

1

40

51

98

3-8

2002

2

108

18

33

30

55

33

40

4

9-4

2003

13

105

72

40

34

104

74

44

4

8-5

2004

7

104

26

29

50

32

37

28

46

8-4

2005

4

115

50

31

19

34

15

13

7

11-1

2006

2

100

5

3

13

109

62

49

25

11-2

2007

3

114

15

9

18

14

7

8

9

11-2

U/M

Rushing

Passing

Total

Scoring

Rushing

Passing

Total

Scoring

TOM

Record

2008

59

108

109

101

50

87

67

84

104

3-9

2009

25

81

59

41

91

67

82

77

115

5-7

Conclusions:

From 2008 to 2009, U/M improved in all phases of the game except Rushing Defense which went from #50 in 2008 to a very ugly #91 in 2009 and, of course, TOM which went from gawd awful to worse!

U/M’s Offense is already good enough to result in a winning record. There is no reason to believe it will not continue to improve this year.

So, yeah, Defense is the key. If we can improve from #77 to at least #60, a winning record should be a lock. How much improvement is this? Our defense allowed 27.5 PPG and the #60 ranked team allowed 25.5 PPG. So that is about a 10% improvement. The #40 ranked team allowed 22.4 PPG which would be about a 20% improvement.

For Rushing Defense, we allowed 172 YPG and the #60 team allowed 144 YPG. That is about a 16% improvement. This should be doable. The strongest part of our defense will be against the run. The most experience is at OL and LB (4 seniors, a junior, and Death ROH).

For Passing Defense, we allowed 221 YPG and the #60 team allowed 218 YPG. That is less than a 2% improvement. So, if the DBs can just stay the course we should be OK.

Look at those Offensive Passing Ranks for WVU! Yikes, I knew RR’s scheme was a run first spread offense but I never thought the passing would be that low. Even though I have been an advocate for Tate to start because of his experience, RR history says the stronger runner will start. Uh, that would be Denard.

As to the question of which is more important – Offense or Defense – the answer is: They Are Equal. Over the 10 years, 88 teams that finished in the top 60 in offense but not in defense had losing records and 89 teams that finished in the top 60 in defense but not offense had losing records.

Among the commentariat, there is fairly widespread agreement that Rich Rodriguez is sitting on the hottest of hotseats among college football coaches. The only disagreement among them, is just how well he needs to do, to be assured of returning in 2011. The consensus is that he needs to win 8 or 9 games.

Dave Brandon has said that there is no absolute litmus test. I think we can assume that Rodriguez is almost surely fired if the team wins five games or less, and he almost surely returns if it wins eight games or more—that is, assuming no more NCAA violations. The gray area is six or seven regular-season wins.

In setting the bar at eight games, we are aiming rather low, by historical standards. In the thirty-nine seasons that Michigan was coached by Bo Schembechler and his assistants, the team won fewer than eight regular-season games in just five seasons (84, 87, 93, 94, 05). And it should be noted that Bo, Moeller and Carr had fewer games in which to do it, as their teams played only ten regular-season games in the first two years of Bo's tenure, and then eleven through 2005.

Still, there is only so much improvement that one can reasonably expect from one year to the next. Rodriguez's first two seasons are sunk costs, and if he can show a gain of +3 from 2009 to 2010, it is hard to argue that that is not good enough.

Another benchmark is that, in thirty-nine seasons, Bo and his former assistants never posted a losing record within the conference. The closest they came was in 1984, when Bo went 5-4 (they played a full round-robin in those days), on the way to a 6-5 regular-season finish, folllowed by a loss in the Holiday Bowl to the national champions, Brigham Young. That, by the way, was the closest Michigan ever came to a losing season in the Bo/Mo/Lloyd era.

One crucial point is that it is impossible to go 8-4 without at least playing .500 ball within the conference. With Michigan's talent advantage, the Wolverines should beat Indiana, Michigan State, Illinois, and Purdue, practically every time. I do realize even the best teams sometimes lose when they shouldn't, but the Wolverines are staring in the face of two-game losing streaks to three of those schools, and they very nearly lost to Indiana last year. If Michigan loses this year to more than one of these opponents, you would have to conclude that Rodriguez is getting consistently out-coached. It is also worth noting that Rodriguez has just one road victory in two years (Minnesota in 2008), and it is hard to see him surviving past 2010 if he does not start winning outside of Ann Arbor.

With a 6-6 or 7-5 regular-season record, Dave Brandon would have a tough decision. Objectively, there is no sugar-coating a 7-5 season that could very easily include losses to the likes of Ohio State, Wisconsin, Penn State, Iowa, and Notre Dame (those being the toughest games on the schedule). No one will say Michigan is back when it is losing to these teams, or to most of them.

Yet, firing Rodriguez would almost certainly usher in another year or two of transition, a sub-par 2011 recruiting class, and yet another coach who arrives to find a roster not built for the system he wants to run. (The probability of Brandon hiring another spread offense guy is slim to none.) In addition, it would also mean missing a bowl for the third consecutive year, since fired coaches seldom stay on to coach a bowl. For these reasons, as disappointing as a 7-5 campaign would be, Brandon will swallow hard and give Rodriguez one more shot in 2011.

It is too soon now to set the bar for 2011, but I would note that after next season Rodriguez must either be fired or given a contract extension. He is under contract through the end of 2013, but he would need to be extended well before then, as otherwise it would be tough to recruit (kids want to know they're coming to a stable program).

That leaves us with the question of what to do if Rodriguez goes 6-6. Many of the arguments for retaining Rodriguez after 7-5 apply with equal force. But in all honesty, I do not think you can accept 3-9 and 5-7, followed by 6-6, as adequate progress. It is practically impossible to write a 6-6 script that you could find acceptable, unless it involves beating Ohio State.

(I suppose I should note explicitly that the bowl outcome, if Michigan goes to one, is irrelevant to Rich Rodriguez's job security. Coaches are hardly ever fired after losing a bowl, because there is too little time to hire a replacement before national signing day.)

Two games loom large on the schedule: UConn and Michigan State. UConn is another one of those teams that "Michigan should beat" almost every time. Their roster is composed almost entirely of kids that were rated two stars or less when they were recruited. Star ratings don't win games, but when the talent disparity is as wide as it is here, there simply is no good excuse for losing to these guys. I am not saying it cannot happen, only that it is not excusable. What is more, with a trip to South Bend looming in Week Two, UConn is a win Rodriguez has to have.

The Michigan State game is important for two reasons. One is that it's a major rivalry in which Michigan has lost two straight. But even more important, it is hard to imagine how Michigan wins at least four Big Ten games, if MSU isn't one of them, particularly as the game is in Ann Arbor.

Obviously, there are ten other games to worry about, but in the likeliest scenarios that involve Rich Rodriguez keeping his job, wins over UConn and MSU are part of the picture.

In short, I think Rodriguez is: 1) surely retained for 2011 if he goes 8-4 or better; 2) surely fired if he goes 5-7 or worse; 3) likely retained if he goes 7-5; 4) likely fired if he goes 6-6. If Brandon is on the fence, the factors I think he will look at include:

There was a Board topic last night about a response to an email that was seemingly from David Brandon himself. This email response was very fast and rather late at night for an Athletic Director, so it led to questions of whether it was "canned" or answered by an aide.

This made me imagine a few funny scenarios... And the first of these scenarios was surprisingly well received. I decided to expand a bit and also to a wider audience than whoever happened to read the comments on that post. 2 notes: First, I was (I think) asked to do this in a diary, it's not my narcissistic need to be appreciated by more people. Second, this is not a serious discussion via diary, granted, but there are often diaries that are centered on humor and that attempt to make light of certain stressful situations in the program (such as Fake ___ Chat Google Wave, which I admit is much funnier than this diary will be). Hopefully this can help you laugh at a dire situation and see it from a lighter point of view while retaining your (hopefully) "Save The Game" attitude.

Anyway, in the wake of the public outcry to save The Game, the IT department has seemingly set up an automated response for Brandon based on keywords in the email sent to him, and based on who is being responded to (e.g. the folksy trend of politicians responding to questions from the middle-American masses). The following exchange occurs [the caps are meant to be read in an automated robotic sort of voice]:

Email to Brandon from his wife:

"Hey honey, I was thinking about making meatloaf tonight. Do you want broccoli or corn on the cob with that? I'll have some rice too, since the kids like it. Pick up some milk on the way home?

Love, your wife."

His automated response:

"Hello YOUR WIFE,

The University, its administration, and I especially, want to reassure you that we are working on MEATLOAF TONIGHT. We understand the issue at hand, and are debating the positives and negatives of both keeping BROCCOLI and switching to a new system of CORN ON THE COB. We understand that RICE is a very strong tradition with all parties involved, and we are aware how strongly THE KIDS LIKE IT, and THE KIDS are very important to all of us. Allow me to reassure you, YOUR, that I am personally working on a solution to PICK UP MILK, and it will be announced very soon.

GO BLUE!!

Sincerely,

HONEY"

Email to Brandon from Domino's CEO J. Patrick Doyle:

"Dear Dave,

This is pretty urgent, so I hope you have time to meet and speak with me privately. We hit a bit of a snag, and we really need your help. It seems that individual Domino's franchise owners are running things with somewhat loose protocol lately, and I'm not sure what you did to remedy this in the past. I know that when you were in this position previously, you handled the situation and it was fixed promptly, so I need your personal and professional advice. Since you ramped up our quality standards, it seems individual owners feel it is a lot more day-to-day work, even after the transition seemed complete.

Thanks for your help,

Your dear friend, J."

His automated response:

"Hello YOURDEAR FRIENDJ,

In the midst of recent rumors, the University, its administration, and I have been trying hard to make time for fans and media alike, and we try to MEET AND SPEAK WITH ME PRIVATELY to as many as we can. I understand you are concerned over A BIT OF A SNAG, but know that I am aware of the situation. I will personally work to be sure SOMEWHAT LOOSE never happens to this program. Many share your confusion over WHAT YOU DID TO REMEDY THIS, but rest assured, YOURDEAR that when I WAS IN THIS POSITION PREVIOUSLY, playing for the U of M football team during some of our best seasons, I understood the importance of HANDLED THE SITUATION. While I can assure you that I take full responsibility, I must inform you that IT WAS FIXED are just rumors at the present time, and this does not necessarily reflect our administration. There is nothing concrete yet, and we are still discussing whether or not to keep QUALITY STANDARDS.

I hope you will continue to hold judgment until we have announced our official position on DOMINO'S FRANCHISE ORDER ONLINE NOW, which will be very soon.

Regards, and Go Blue!!

DEAR."

Email to Brandon from Rich Rodriguez:

"Dave,

The recent staff meeting seemed rather vague. I feel there were many points that were not touched on, probably to save face and not create more rumors since there is no hiding from the media lately. I have had to deal with this a lot in practices, so I understand, but if we meet privately we can discuss matters further and talk about how we should handle things the right way.

Get back to me when you can and we can meet,

Rich."

Brandon's automated response:

"Hello,

I would first like to say that the Big Ten, its officials, its administration, and all the Athletic Directors of the conference are understanding of the problems we are going through. I know that RECENT STAFF MEETIN' is a big issue to a lot of FOLKS, and we still have work to do before we can be official on our TOUCHED ON policy. We need to think about how to properly CREATE MORE RUMORS before we can actually begin to do it. There's a big lack of HIDING FROM THE MEDIA LATELY, and we're WORKIN' on it, and YOU CAN COUNT ON THAT, SON. I am not only the AD, but also a fan, so I understand your views. We all have had to DEAL WITH THIS A LOT IN PRACTICES. I will take your suggestion to MEET PRIVATELY WE CAN DISCUSS MATTERS into consideration, and assure you that we will not rush into HANDLE THINGS THE RIGHT WAY.

I hope you can help us by being patient, and trust that we will try our best to AND WE CAN MEET RICH.

GIT R' DONE, and Go Blue.

Dave."

Rodriguez's automated response:

"Hello DAVE, and GO BLUE!

First and foremost, let me address your first question. There is no word yet on the QB situation, but all three of our QB's are progressing very well. There is no clear cut winner, and each has their own qualities. They are all looking good, but hopefully we will have a frontrunner for the starting job soon.

GO BLUE! Now on to the rest of your email. I understand that tradition is important, and I want to continue that. GO BLUE! Please don't hate me. I hope we will soon find an answer to THAT RECENT STAFF MEETIN', but there are about 4 or 5 guys who could fill that spot already. We even have some freshmen vying for playing time in the FOLKS position, and several guys who can score a lot of TOUCHED ONs for us.

I try to address the MEDIA best I can, and our whole program is trying to PROPERLY CREATE MORE RUMORS while still WORKIN'ing ON IT. We know you understand that YOU CAN COUNT.

As THE AD and BUT ALSO A FAN, I hope you can come out and see us prove ourselves come September 4th. We are preparing for UConn, yes, and we are hoping our passing game and our RUSHing INTO HANDLE THINGS THE RIGHT WAY yards can climb from the past two years, and hopefully lead the Big Ten.

I know the fans are eager to see us win and BEING PATIENT, and I thank you for tryin' hard to AND WE CAN MEET RICH in the countdown to that first game.

Finally, to address your last question, There is no word yet on the QB situation, but all three of our QB's are progressing very well. There is no clear cut winner, and each has their own qualities. They are all looking good, but hopefully we will have a frontrunner for the starting job soon.

Hope to see you in the Big House Sept. 4th!

Don't call me DickRod.

Coach Rodriguez"

Brandon's automated response:

"Hello DICKROD,

I understand all your concerns, and let me reassure you that we will announce SYSTEM ERROR - - -

Go Blue!! GoB!! GBlue!!Go BlGo Bl Blue!!Go B !Go Blue!!Go Blue!!

Regards,

DAVE AND GO BLUE"

Rodriguez's response:

"This is Coach Rodriguez's aide. How can we stop these from sending back and forth? This computer is moving really slow now and won't stop displaying Domino's ads. I'm just an intern, I'm not trained in IT or anything. Thanks man, hope an aide sees this on that side. I'll email my super."

Brandon's response:

"Delete system 32. That should help it stop."

Automatic response:

"This message to [email protected] has not been sent. The account has either been deleted or closed due to inactivity. Thanks for your understanding."

Brandon's response:

"trollface.jpg"

I really hope this isn't half as stupid as I think it is looking back on it, after finishing it... hope you guys like it. I should probably revise, but meh.

We think we can’t stop it but we shouldn’t stop trying. We think that the countless voices across the blogosphere and fan forums can’t change the powers-that-be up in higher places that sit in lofty Chicago penthouses or Ann Arbor and Columbus mansions, drinking hundred-dollar scotch while tinkering with some of our most revered traditions. We think we can’t, we probably can’t. But that doesn’t mean we should stop trying.

While it may be true that some “traditions” seem trivial or mundane and some “don’t seem to work,” there are some that should NEVER be touched. Touching the “M Club” banner, dotting the Script ‘I’, with Winged helmets, Carmen Ohio and The Victors are a few examples – playing Ohio State the last game at the end of November is another. The useless traditions fade away as fast as the wishbone offense and Nike jerseys - the enduring, valued traditions, that endure the tests of time and the changing ways around them. These traditions are the ones that stay, and those who stay, will be champions.

There are those, even amongst Michigan and Ohio State camps would prefer to move The Game earlier in the year, or at the least – have conformed to the idea. This is a dangerous way of thinking.

Like Ramzy posted on Bucknuts, stating far more eloquently than I ever could: "What is a big deal is corrupting the tradition of college football, which is its most prized and unique asset.....it’s the steady destruction of what keeps college football from just being slower, smaller professional football. Without tradition, that’s all college football is."

But these individuals don’t care – so they try to change it. At best, they make excuses and reasons. At worst, theybelittle our traditions, tell us we are out-dated, and want to determine (what is and what was) right and wrong for past, current, and future generations of Michigan and Ohio State fans – all because they think that their logic and their ideas trumps everything (and this idea doesn't even have logic behind it). And they think we're arrogant?

We hold on to our traditions. We respect our traditions. We remember Mercury Hayes in 1993, we remember Timmy B in 95, and we remember Griese off the bench in 96, to say nothing of matchups in the last decade....does anyone honestly think those games would be just as significant played in October, or knowing that we would perhaps face them again in a Big Ten title game? Hell no!

I remember the pure, unadulterated ecstasy that accompanied the feeling of watching the boys put up 13 unanswered in the Shoe in 1996, to see Cooper's face on the sideline. I remember what it feels like to spoil your mortal enemy’s entire season in just a few, precious hours on late November afternoon.

At the same time, I also remember the feeling in 2004, 2005, and 2006, seeing rows of scarlet-clad fans rush the field in jubilation. Would the pangs of sadness have been as intense had it been played October? Would The Game lose any significance if there was always the possiblity of the season being defined as The GameS? The answer seems obvious.

It’s when we remember these moments and show respect to the ones who played and coached, we respect the generations before us, something that has existed long before us and (hopefully) will exist after us.

Coach Schiano sums it up best:"When Delany, Brandon, Smith, and the other nominal powers-that-be decide, for good reasons or bad, to move the Game, they are not just changing the schedule. They are changing our memories, changing the sights and sounds in our minds. Not destroying them. But lessening them, cheapening them."

So what do we think in the face of such disregard of something so sacred? We fight! And we fight the arrogant attitude of the Big Ten, Delaney, Gee, Smith, and even Dave Brandon and anyone who thinks that they know better than the ones who have come before us. We fight even if we know we cannot win. We battle back to defend the traditions others believe are insignificant, out-dated, irrelevant and close-minded.

I also hate that term: close-minded. They attack our values by saying we’re close-minded. Close-minded? We're close minded because we want our history to have a voice? We're close-minded because we believe that those traditions are part of what connect us with those before and those who will come after? We’re close-minded because we want the countless generations who have come before us and have experienced the same as us to shape our reality? We’re close-minded because we want our children and grandchildren to experience the same thrills and agonies that we have? We're close-minded because we think The Game, which has been played as, proved to be and become the Greatest Rivalry in All of Sports for generations should not be changed?

That makes us close minded, when they are the ones who want to close the book on a hundred years of history, forget everyone before us, and ruin everything we have known as good in our little scope of time known as the "BCS era" because they think they have something new and better? Who's close-minded?

We're not close minded - THEY are!

Fight On!

--NoNon (I don't want to beat a dead horse but these are the feelings that I have)