Where Our Googling of Stormy Daniels is Strictly for Research Purposes

Updated Republican Primary Schedule

We now have just under two weeks to go before the Iowa caucuses. That’s a good a time as any to update the GOP’s Primary Calendar. I last posted it at the 100-day mark, but eight contests were still listed as “TBA.” Since then, however, those states and territories have chosen their dates, so I can now post a complete calendar. (I still recommend that original post if you’re wondering how delegation sizes were chosen for each state.) Remember, it’s a race to earn 1,237 of the 2,472 available delegates at the Republican National Convention.

Just so you don’t feel like you’re wasting your time with just a list of dates and U.S. territories, I’ll also break up the schedule into chunks with some commentary. And since I told you Donald Trump would never last and Hillary Clinton wouldn’t face much of a challenge, you know my commentary is as good as gold.

Let’s start with the obvious first chunk: the February states (pledged, unpledged, and total delegates in parentheses).

February 1, 2016

Iowa

30 / 0 / 30

February 9, 2016

New Hampshire

23 / 0 / 23

February 20, 2016

South Carolina

50 / 0 / 50

February 23, 2016

Nevada

27 / 3 / 30

I already lent my thoughts to these states, and the scenarios I laid out remain.

By the end of February, we’ll lose a majority of the remaining dozen candidates. Gilmore is irrelevant, Huckabee and Santorum will withdraw after Iowa, Fiorina and two or three of Kasich, Bush, and Christie will follow them after New Hampshire, and Carson will either withdraw after South Carolina or stay in for a few delegates in March. Trump and Cruz are the only ones certain to survive February, and Rubio should, too, barring another establishment candidate winning New Hampshire. Paul, like his father, is just annoying and proud enough to stay in until we have a presumptive nominee. Ultimately, we’ll be left with five or six candidates heading into…

Those 14 states combine for over 650 pledged delegates, more than half the required amount needed for the nomination. This day is nicknamed the SEC, or Southeastern Conference, primary because 453 of those 653 delegates, or nearly 70 percent, come from southern states. The mother lode of the day is Texas; its 155 delegates are second only to California’s 172 as the primary’s biggest prize. Its junior senator, Ted Cruz, will be poised for a big day, but he’ll need to make sure Trump hasn’t run away with it before then. On March 1, Rubio and perhaps one other establishment candidate will hope to stay alive through Cruz and Trump splitting support across their southern base.

After Super Tuesday, we get to the Next Eleven Days.

March 5, 2016

Kansas

40 / 0 / 40

March 5, 2016

Kentucky

42 / 3 / 45

March 5, 2016

Louisiana

44 / 3 / 47

March 5, 2016

Maine

20 / 3 / 23

March 6, 2016

Puerto Rico

20 / 3 / 23

March 8, 2016

Hawaii

16 / 3 / 19

March 8, 2016

Idaho

29 / 3 / 32

March 8, 2016

Michigan

56 / 3 / 59

March 8, 2016

Mississippi

37 / 3 / 40

March 12, 2016

Guam

6 / 3 / 9

March 12, 2016

Washington, D.C.

16 / 3 / 19

March 5 and 12, both Saturdays, bookend 11 contests (8 states, two territories, and a district) and 326 more pledged delegates. About half of them come from very conservative contests, but the transition away from dark red states toward purple and blue ones has begun. Remember, Republicans in blue states, typically a more moderate bunch than where Trump and Cruz rack up huge support, have disproportionate power over the Republican Primary. If Rubio or another establishment candidate can remain alive until this point, he’s in great shape heading into The Rest of March:

March 15, 2016

Florida

99 / 0 / 99

March 15, 2016

Illinois

66 / 3 / 69

March 15, 2016

Missouri

49 / 3 / 52

March 15, 2016

North Carolina

72 / 0 / 72

March 15, 2016

Northern Mariana Islands

6 / 3 / 9

March 15, 2016

Ohio

63 / 3 / 66

March 19, 2016

Virgin Islands

6 / 3 / 9

March 22, 2016

American Samoa

6 / 3 / 9

March 22, 2016

Arizona

58 / 0 / 58

March 22, 2016

Utah

40 / 0 / 40

That’s another heavy eight day stretch, this time with even more delegates: 465. It’s the purple part of the primary — note Florida, North Carolina, and Ohio as potential swing states.

Then come the April states. This is an important stretch as well. Before this point, states had to award their delegates proportionally. Starting on April 1, however, the RNC allows states to use a winner-take-all system. Again we have a way for a Rubio to make a comeback if he survives this long. Take a look at these blue April states:

April 5, 2016

Wisconsin

42 / 0 / 42

April 19, 2016

New York

92 / 3 / 95

April 26, 2016

Connecticut

25 / 3 / 28

April 26, 2016

Delaware

16 / 0 / 16

April 26, 2016

Maryland

38 / 0 / 38

April 26, 2016

Pennsylvania

68 / 3 / 71

April 26, 2016

Rhode Island

16 / 3 / 19

Five are dark blue and two lean that way. Three of these states are winner-take-all, and the rest makes it easy to rack up all the delegates were a candidate to clear 50 percent of the primary’s vote.

These are followed by the May states:

May 3, 2016

Indiana

54 / 3 / 57

May 10, 2016

Nebraska

33 / 3 / 36

May 10, 2016

West Virginia

31 / 3 / 34

May 17, 2016

Oregon

25 / 3 / 28

May 24, 2016

Washington

41 / 3 / 44

At 184 delegates, that’s a light month. If the primary is still close coming into it, it’ll be close going out.

After the Washington Primary, there’s actually only one more day of voting, but it’s a big one. The June 7states:

June 7, 2016

California

169 / 3 / 172

June 7, 2016

Montana

24 / 3 / 27

June 7, 2016

New Jersey

51 / 0 / 51

June 7, 2016

New Mexico

21 / 3 / 24

June 7, 2016

South Dakota

26 / 3 / 29

This one day’s pledged delegate count — 291 — is 60 percent more than all of May’s combined. Of course, that’s mostly thanks to one state — the largest of the primary — California. If a Rubio blue state comeback has him gaining on Trump, I can see a big Rubio win in California putting him on top heading into the summer. If this day doesn’t decide the party’s nominee, however, we’re headed toward a brokered convention! (Pleasepleasepleasepleaseplease)

Tomorrow, I’ll repeat this process with the Democratic Primary. See you then.

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