There were a number of new releases to reach the top of the DVD sales chart. They earned the top four spots and seven of the top eight spots. On the downside, it was absolutely a case of quantity over quality. Parker earned first place on the DVD chart, but with just 170,000 units / $2.62 million. It only managed second place on Blu-ray with 72,000 units / $1.50 million for an opening week Blu-ray share of just under 30%, which is bad for an action film. Speaking of action films, The Last Stand opened in second place on DVD with 154,000 units / $2.17 million, but earned first place on Blu-ray with 110,000 units / $1.64 million. Its opening week Blu-ray share was 42%, which is more in line with the average for that genre.
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Journey To The West: Conquering The Demons earned first place for the third weekend in a row earning $23.37 million in 8 markets for a running tally of $193.09 million. A few years ago, a Chinese film earning nearly $200 million would have been the biggest news of the year, but this is becoming almost common.
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The Oscars proved to be too much competition for the new releases as neither Snitch nor Dark Skies were able to find much success. Indeed, it was Identity Thief that rose to top spot in its third week of release. Most films in the top five were able to at least match expectations, but the overall box office still plummeted 27% from last weekend to just $103 million. The comparison to last year was not quite as bad, but it was still down by a stunning 23%. Ouch. 2013 is now behind 2012 by a full $100 million or 6.7% at $1.41 billion to $1.51 billion.
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The Valentine's Day / President's Day five-day weekend wasn't as lucrative as many had hoped, at least not at the top, which is really bad news for a year that is not off to a great start. A Good Day to Die Hard won the race, but barely, with Identity Thief coming in a very close second over the weekend. Other new releases, like Safe Haven and Escape From Planet Earth did better than expected, while Beautiful Creatures crashed. The overall box office did rise by 36% to $141 million over the three-day period, but the holiday explains that growth. Compare to last year, 2013 actually failed to match last President's Day by 9.3% over the three-day period and with $168 million including Monday, missed the four-day period by 13%. Year-to-date, 2013 is behind 2012 by 6.7% at $1.28 billion to $1.37 billion. I am officially concerned.
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It's Valentine's Day today, while Monday is President's Day, so the box office has an unofficial five-day weekend. There's not much of a mystery regarding which of the four wide releases will top the chart this weekend, as nearly everyone expects A Good Day to Die Hard will come out on top. Maybe Safe Haven will earn first place tonight, but very few expect that will last after Valentine's day. Despite earning better than expected reviews, Beautiful Creatures isn't expected to compete for the top spot, or even second place. So far there are no reviews for Escape From Planet Earth and it might be stuck in fifth place. Because of a misalignment in Valentine's Day, we should do better this weekend compared to the same weekend last year, which is good news, as 2013 is in a mini-slump.
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Valentine's Day is next week, to be more specific, it is on Thursday. Going to the movies is such an iconic date, it makes sense romantic movies like Safe Haven and Beautiful Creatures are opening that day. I'm not even surprised a family film like Escape From Planet Earth is opening, because it gives families something to do. I'm a little more concerned about A Good Day to Die Hard. While it is the odd one out, it still should win the weekend box office race and it is the target film for this week's box office prediction contest. In order to win, one must simply predict the opening weekend box office number for A Good Day to Die Hard.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going over, will win a copy of Bonanza: Season Five on DVD.
Meanwhile, whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going under, will win a copy of Gunsmoke: Season Seven, Volume Two on DVD.
Entries must be received by 10 a.m., Pacific Time on Friday to be eligible, so don't delay!
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For the most part, January was a really good month and 2013 got off to a really good start. I'm not so sure about February, on the other hand. There's only one film that has a statistically significant shot at $100 million, A Good Day to Die Hard, but I'm a little concerned that it won't live up to expectations. The franchise has been around a long time and it is possible that the target audience has either moved on or are too young to remember when these films were huge at the box office. The film I'm most looking forward to seeing is Warm Bodies, which is earning amazing early reviews (the keyword there is "early"), but it is too high-concept to be a major hit. Last February, there were a coupleof films that topped $100 million, plus a few other midlevel hits. I would like to think that would also be the case this year, but I have to be more cautious than that. The evidence points to a weak month ahead, for the most part.
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The shaded area represents the expected performance range for a film, based on its opening weekend box office. 95% of films fall within the shaded area. If a film trends towards the top end of the shaded area, it has good legs compared to the average film; if it trends towards the bottom end of the shaded area, it has poor legs. The predictive area is based on movies from the past 5 years.

Full financial estimates for this film, including domestic and international box office, video sales, video rentals, TV and ancillary revenue
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