Poll: Bush keeps 3-point lead on Kerry

Published 5:30 am, Tuesday, October 26, 2004

WASHINGTON - President Bush holds a slim three-point lead over Democratic rival John Kerry one week before the Nov. 2 presidential election, according to a Reuters/Zogby poll released today.

Bush led Kerry 49-46 percent in the latest three-day national tracking poll, maintaining a stable lead on the Massachusetts senator as the White House rivals head down the stretch. Bush led Kerry 48-45 percent the day before.

With the campaign winding down, the poll added voters leaning toward either Bush or Kerry into their totals for the first time. That left only about 3 percent of likely voters undecided.

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"If Kerry, as suggested, is looking to undecideds, look again -- there may not be enough left," pollster John Zogby said.

Bush's three-point lead is identical to the three-point margin he had over Democrat Al Gore in the tracking poll at the same stage of the disputed 2000 election.

Kerry still has big leads among key Democratic constituencies like African Americans and union members, but now trails Bush among women, youth and seniors.

The number of likely voters who thought Bush deserved reelection, 48 percent, was equal to those who wanted someone new. Bush's presidential performance was rated as excellent or good by 48 percent, and 51 percent said it was only fair or poor.

The poll of 1,206 likely voters was taken Saturday through Monday and has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.9 percentage points. The rolling poll will continue through Nov. 1 -- the day before the election.

In a series of Reuters/Zogby tracking polls in 10 battleground states, Bush led in six states and Kerry four. Bush had one-point leads in the key states of Ohio and Florida, while Kerry had a three-point edge in Pennsylvania. All three results were within the poll's margin of error.

Ohio, Florida and Pennsylvania and their combined 68 electoral votes are the biggest prizes remaining among toss-up states as the rivals try to reach the 270 electoral votes needed to win the White House.

The national poll showed independent candidate Ralph Nader, blamed by some Democrats for drawing enough votes from Gore to cost him the election in 2000, with the support of 1.1 percent of likely voters.

A tracking poll combines the results of three consecutive nights of polling, then drops the first night's results each time a new night is added. It allows pollsters to record shifts in voter sentiment as they happen.

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