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Thursday, 3 October 2013

Korean Grand Prix: The Top Bets By The Form Guide

Formula 1 Betting By Numbers

If
you want to beat the bookies at formula 1 then it helps to be armed with the
statistics, so over the last few days I've analysed the statistics
to see which drivers have been the most profitable bets, and also the
safest bets, in some of the most popular formula 1 betting markets. The
form guide charts I've produced have been fairly detailed and show the
profit/loss for every driver.

However, for the benefit of anyone
who just wants a brief summary of the best bets in various betting
categories, I've summarised the most profitable bets*, and also the
safest bets, below...

* Based on the last six Grand Prix and weighted in favour of recent races.

N.B.
The profit rating is weighted in favour of recent races to reflect the
fact that recent Grand Prix generally have more relevance to forthcoming
results. To be specific, I've calculated the returns based on a
standard £1 bet on the same driver/result at each of the previous six
Grand Prix (based on the odds when the market first opened) and then
applied the following multipliers; Britain 16.7%, Germany 33.3%, Hungary 50%, Belgium 66.7%, Italy 83.3% and Singapore 100%.

Sebastian Vettel dominates the form guide and has been the most profitable bet in five betting categories, with Nico Hulkenberg the other driver of note thanks to his performances in recent races having earned him the biggest Top Six and Top Ten profit.

If
you're looking for a relatively safe bet, rather than gambling on a large
return, then here are the bets which have come up most often in the last
six Grand Prix:

Safest Bets:

Winning Driver: Sebastian Vettel (4 wins from 6 Grand Prix)Podium Finish: Sebastian Vettel (5 podiums from 6 GP)Top Six Finish:Fernando Alonso (6 top six finishes from 6 GP)Top Ten Finish:Fernando Alonso (6 top ten finishes from 6 GP)Fastest Qualifier: Lewis Hamilton (4 poles from 6 GP)Winning Team: Red Bull (4 wins from 6 GP)Qualify On Front Row: Sebastian Vettel (5 front rows from 6 GP)Fastest Lap: Sebastian Vettel (2 fastest laps from 6 GP)Lap 1 Leader: Sebastian Vettel (4 from 6 GP)First To Retire: Daniel Ricciardo (1 from 6 GP)First Team To Retire: Force India (2 from 6 GP)Safety Car: No (3 from 6 GP)Lap 1 Retirements: None (5 from 6 GP)Winning Margin: 6 Seconds Or More (3 from 6 GP)N.B.
When two or more drivers/results have achieved an equal success rate, I
have listed the driver/result which would have returned the biggest
profit. Bets which have paid out in each of the last six Grand prix are underlined.

Once again Sebastian
Vettel's name crops up in five categories, but of course this will be reflected in his odds. As usual,
bear in mind that past performance is no guarantee of future success!