Drought analysis based on a cluster Poisson model: distribution of the most severe drought

Jesús Abaurrea, Ana Carmen Cebrián*

ABSTRACT: This work aims to characterize the largest drought event to occur in a given period of time. A Poisson cluster process is used to model drought occurrence and a vector of 3 random variables (duration, deficit and maximum intensity) to describe
their severity. Some results on the distribution of the maximum in a random size sample are developed in order to describe the largest drought events.