If this is your first visit, be sure to
check out the FAQ by clicking the
link above. You may have to register
before you can post: click the register link above to proceed. To start viewing messages,
select the forum that you want to visit from the selection below.

Re: Official 2018-19 Offseason / Hot Stove Thread

Originally Posted by JLJ81

Despite the fact that Degrom has one less year of control than Sale did when he was traded, the Yankees will have to OVERPAY and probably give up a deal at least similar in value to pry him from the Mets. The Mets won't do a "fair" deal. They want an overpay or they won't deal with the Yankees. The Red Sox gave up the number one prospect in baseball, a top 30ish pitching prospect, another top 100 guy and a lower level lotto guy.

Tell me what prospects we have that come close to that? We have ONE top 50 guy with Sheffield. Frazier is damaged goods with his concussion problems. A trade for DeGrom is going to HURT bad. The White Sox wanted Bregman for Sale and Houston told them to go pound sand. So if you aren't willing to pony up then cross DeGrom off the list.

I would love to get DeGrom for a package around Andujar. I don't see it happening, and benching him in the elimination game in the ALDS didn't help his value either.

Again...Andujar is already an overpay. You are comparing prospects who were in AA to a player who had a ROY campaign. Two main prospects who one in his 2nd season wasn't league average (Moncada) and the 2nd just underwent TJ surgery (Kopech). Not to mention, how much more valuable Sale was at the time of trade. You cannot compare the inherent risks of prospects in AA with someone who just had a successful ROY type major league season. The latter do not get traded due to their immense value.

SC wrote up whole vast thing on this before:

Originally Posted by Snatch Catch

Yes, last year at this time a Torres/Sheffield deal is in the same ballpark as the Sox offer, but actually would have been LESS and the Sox offer would have still won out.

The key here is that when truly elite position players - top 5-10 prospects in all of baseball - get to the upper levels they're almost never traded. If they take the next step and get to the Majors without simply looking overmatched - let alone completely MASHING - they're quite literally untouchable. They become above the market. We're talking above the market to the point that I'm 100% vertain even the Mets understand there's no way they're getting Torres, despite what they're feeding the media via back channels.

I've brought it up in these discussion before, but I'll repeat it again here: Andrew Benintendi was actually ranked above Moncada after midseason updates, but regardless they were technically very close in any prospect rankings. However, Benintendi came up to the Majors in 2016 and was producing, and because of that the Red Sox told the White Sox that Benintendi was off-limits. Moncada, the "#1 prospect in baseball" was on the table, but Benintendi was completely untouchable - even in negotiations for a guy considered to be in the conversation for best pitcher in baseball on a team friendly deal.

In 2014 Mookie Betts was off the table for Hamels
In 2016 Trea Turner was off the table for Sale
In 2016 Dansby Swanson was off the table for Sale

Those were the ones that came to my head a few days ago, and I'm sure you can find many more, but he point is once these guys hit the ML level and produce they become above the market, if you will. This has nothing to do with how much I like the players being discussed or anything, this is simply looking at history and how FOs react to having a player they see on a potential All-Star trajectory already in the Majors. Those guys do not get moved for anything less than a crazy return on the extremely rare occasion that they're even dealt, meaning THEY are going to be bring back something major all by themselves, a la Montero/Pineda.

With that said, Cashman has an extremely unique situation with Andujar - he's got a guy he loves waiting in AAA right behind Miguel, so there's a strange ability to move him if it goes there. However Miguel Andujar's trade value at this point is absolutely enormous. He simply does not have "prospect value", he is in a group of players that is normally too valuable to even consider moving...but because of Drury it's at least a consideration to try and cash in on that incredible capital. To put it in perspective, Andujar at this point has considerably more value than Moncada did at the time of the Sale trade, and that is not a personal opinion based on any affinity for the Yankees/Miguel - my apathy towards him is well documented here - but Andujar is raking with power at the ML level, the end. Moncada, for all the fanfare, had well-documented flaws that everyone acknowledged might prevent him from ever reaching what Andujar has already done in less than a half season. That creates the massive chasm in value between "elite prospect" to "young Major League regular showing All-Star potential".

Re: Official 2018-19 Offseason / Hot Stove Thread

I suspect Kershaw will opt out of his contract. You can debate whether it's wise to sink that much money into a 30 year old pitcher with injury concerns and declining peripherals but he would certainly be a top of the rotation starter if healthy. Edit: longtimeyankeefan beat me to it.

Re: Official 2018-19 Offseason / Hot Stove Thread

Originally Posted by jnewmark

He's an upgrade over CC, who, I believe won't be back.

Yes, I won't disagree. But enough of an upgrade to make a difference? Enough of an upgrade to justify the $? In my opinion, no. The front office needs to be all-in on finding a true ace. They can make whatever moves they want in the off-season, and some of them might make us better as a team, but unless we get a legit #1 starter (and probably #2 as well) we aren't winning a WS.

Re: Official 2018-19 Offseason / Hot Stove Thread

Originally Posted by ClownPickle

Again...Andujar is already an overpay. You are comparing prospects who were in AA to a player who had a ROY campaign. Two main prospects who one in his 2nd season wasn't league average (Moncada) and the 2nd just underwent TJ surgery (Kopech). Not to mention, how much more valuable Sale was at the time of trade. You cannot compare the inherent risks of prospects in AA with someone who just had a successful ROY type major league season. The latter do not get traded due to their immense value.

SC wrote up whole vast thing on this before:

Hindsight doesn't matter. It is how those prospects were viewed at the time of the deal. Three of them were top 100.

Fine.. take Andujar and Torres off the table. We don't have the prospects to get it done. One top 50 guy is not enough. For example, the Astros have 2 top 10 and 3 top 50. They can get it done without giving up major league talent, and if DeGrom becomes available you can bet every contender will be on the phone with the Mets.

Re: Official 2018-19 Offseason / Hot Stove Thread

Originally Posted by JLJ81

Hindsight doesn't matter. It is how those prospects were viewed at the time of the deal. Three of them were top 100.

Fine.. take Andujar and Torres off the table. We don't have the prospects to get it done. One top 50 guy is not enough. For example, the Astros have 2 top 10 and 3 top 50. They can get it done without giving up major league talent, and if DeGrom becomes available you can bet every contender will be on the phone with the Mets.

I'm saying including Andujar in a deal for DeGrom is an overpay. I would do Andujar and some ancillary players, Wade, ect... That's an overpay. A gross overpay.

You were saying it wasn't an overpay. I'm explaining to you why it is.

Calmer than you are

7/30/2017: The day the Minnesota Twins bought a prospect from the New York Yankees.

Re: Official 2018-19 Offseason / Hot Stove Thread

I'm saying including Andujar in a deal for DeGrom is an overpay. I would do Andujar and some ancillary players, Wade, ect... That's an overpay. A gross overpay.

You were saying it wasn't an overpay. I'm explaining to you why it is.

I'm not arguing that it isn't an overpay. I'm saying I don't think the Mets will take Andujar plus.... They don't want just an overpay. They want a speed up our rebuild by several years overpay. As I said earlier... consider it the Yankee Premium.

Re: Official 2018-19 Offseason / Hot Stove Thread

Originally Posted by JLJ81

I'm not arguing that it isn't an overpay. I'm saying I don't think the Mets will take Andujar plus.... They don't want just an overpay. They want a speed up our rebuild by several years overpay. As I said earlier... consider it the Yankee Premium.

I don't understand what that means. Andujar led package would an overpay on an historical level. It's as simple as that.

Calmer than you are

7/30/2017: The day the Minnesota Twins bought a prospect from the New York Yankees.

Re: Official 2018-19 Offseason / Hot Stove Thread

Originally Posted by ClownPickle

Completely disagree that's what would be required.

CP, I normally side with you, but in this case, I actually agree with JL.
At the deadline I read and heard in several places that the Wilpons view a successful day in baseball as a day when the Mets win and the Yankees lose. It was stated that they do not even enjoy their own team winning on a given day unless the Yankees also lose..

Given that, we are not dealing with a GM or organizational philosophy, we are dealing with an ownership who has an irrational hatred for the Yankees. This is not just an overpay on a rational level, it has to be a stupid deal.. It has to be the type of deal that if DeGrom wins the CYA award for the Yankees next year and gets us title number 28, the Mets have to feel they still won the deal.. People are debating packages headed by Andujar or Torres. Forget that, you have to be talking about Andujar AND Torres. Again, I realize it is completely dumb to even consider that, but that is the price for the irrational hatred.

It's a message board so I am never going to say to anyone that we should not even bother discussing a topic, but to me, dealing with the Mets on any significant level comes close. They'd rather take a far lesser package from anyone else than entertain a mere scintilla of thought of helping the Yankees. Obtaining DeGrom is not about entertaining an overpay, it is about entertaining a system wide organizational rape.

Never were these teams more matched than this year. The Mets deep in starters, even beyond deGrom, the Yankees able to give the Mets a young athletic bat. If the Mets were the Marlins or the Padres, a deal would have been done. These teams cannot share a weight room facility without fighting.

Wheteher any of the Mets pitchers were on the trade table or whether they will be is not of any consequence to us, because even if so they would only be on the table for the other 28 teams.

Re: Official 2018-19 Offseason / Hot Stove Thread

Originally Posted by aeromac76

CP, I normally side with you, but in this case, I actually agree with JL.

At the deadline I read and heard in several places that the Wilpons view a successful day in baseball as a day when the Mets win and the Yankees lose. It was stated that they do not even enjoy their own team winning on a given day unless the Yankees also lose..

Given that, we are not dealing with a GM or organizational philosophy, we are dealing with an ownership who has an irrational hatred for the Yankees. This is not just an overpay on a rational level, it has to be a stupid deal.. It has to be the type of deal that if DeGrom wins the CYA award for the Yankees next year and gets us title number 28, the Mets have to feel they still won the deal.. People are debating packages headed by Andujar or Torres. Forget that, you have to be talking about Andujar AND Torres. Again, I realize it is completely dumb to even consider that, but that is the price for the irrational hatred.

It's a message board so I am never going to say to anyone that we should not even bother discussing a topic, but to me, dealing with the Mets on any significant level comes close. They'd rather take a far lesser package from anyone else than entertain a mere scintilla of thought of helping the Yankees. Obtaining DeGrom is not about entertaining an overpay, it is about entertaining a system wide organizational rape.

Never were these teams more matched than this year. The Mets deep in starters, even beyond deGrom, the Yankees able to give the Mets a young athletic bat. If the Mets were the Marlins or the Padres, a deal would have been done. These teams cannot share a weight room facility without fighting.

Wheteher any of the Mets pitchers were on the trade table or whether they will be is not of any consequence to us, because even if so they would only be on the table for the other 28 teams.

I don't really buy into much tabloid nonsense. If the Mets are going to be irrational, they are going to be irrational. However, Cashman never offered Andj OR Gley for DeGrom in their midseason negotiations. So we have no idea what their response to such a gross overpay would actually be.

Calmer than you are

7/30/2017: The day the Minnesota Twins bought a prospect from the New York Yankees.

Re: Official 2018-19 Offseason / Hot Stove Thread

Originally Posted by ClownPickle

I don't understand what that means. Andujar led package would an overpay on an historical level. It's as simple as that.

I would agree with you if Andujars defense wasn't extraordinarily bad. If it was just bad, NL teams would figure it would improve and doesn't matter given his bat; and then he would have a lot more value than Moncada had at the time of the Sale trade.

But IF it's a foregone certainty he cannot play 3B and will likely struggle even at 1B or LF, I think his trade value takes a big hit despite his great hitting season. Plus, there's already the risk that he doesn't improve his OBP. If he doesn't, his bat might not b good enough to justify his DH status (or shoddy defense)

Even if DeGrom was on a team willing to deal with the Yanks, I don't think Andujar and Sheffield would be enough

Re: Official 2018-19 Offseason / Hot Stove Thread

Originally Posted by poneil2321

I would agree with you if Andujars defense wasn't extraordinarily bad. If it was just bad, NL teams would figure it would improve and doesn't matter given his bat; and then he would have a lot more value than Moncada had at the time of the Sale trade.

But IF it's a foregone certainty he cannot play 3B and will likely struggle even at 1B or LF, I think his trade value takes a big hit despite his great hitting season. Plus, there's already the risk that he doesn't improve his OBP. If he doesn't, his bat might not b good enough to justify his DH status (or shoddy defense)

Even if DeGrom was on a team willing to deal with the Yanks, I don't think Andujar and Sheffield would be enough

He's not the first infielder to struggle in his first year, as historically bad it is. Normally, the very easy decision would be to move him to the corner OF. His arm would play out there in either position. However, we can't do that as we have Giancarlo and Judge already manning those positions. Hiding an offensive monster is a lot easier issue to solve, than hiding a defensive player with no offense.

Calmer than you are

7/30/2017: The day the Minnesota Twins bought a prospect from the New York Yankees.

Re: Official 2018-19 Offseason / Hot Stove Thread

I hear Hal and Cashman will be addressing the media today. Here’s what this fan wants to hear as opposed to the usual spin. I want to hear they are upset that under their watch Boston has become the dominant team in the AL East. I want to hear they are embarrassed that Boston celebrated on their field twice. And I want to hear Hal state that it’s unacceptable with their massive revenues he spent 60 million less than Boston this season and I want a commitment it won’t be the case next season.

Re: Official 2018-19 Offseason / Hot Stove Thread

Originally Posted by Art Vanderlay

I hear Hal and Cashman will be addressing the media today. Here’s what this fan wants to hear as opposed to the usual spin. I want to hear they are upset that under their watch Boston has become the dominant team in the AL East. I want to hear they are embarrassed that Boston celebrated on their field twice. And I want to hear Hal state that it’s unacceptable with their massive revenues he spent 60 million less than Boston this season and I want a commitment it won’t be the case next season.

Who cares what they say? Actions speak louder than words. Actions state incompetence gets extensions.

Calmer than you are

7/30/2017: The day the Minnesota Twins bought a prospect from the New York Yankees.