On Monday, when Prime Minister Mirek Topolanek met with Polish counterpart
Jaroslaw Kaczynski in Warsaw as part of a two-day official visit, it was
no surprise that a proposed US missile defence system in Europe topped the
leaders' discussion list. The US has asked the Czech Republic and Poland to
respectively host radar and rocket bases on their territory as part of an
anti-missile shield designed to prevent potential missile attacks by Iran
or North Korea. On Monday, both Mr Topolanek and Mr Kaczynski made it
clear that they were in favour of opening talks with Washington, with the
Czech Republic expected to formally reply to the US request in two weeks
time.

Jaroslaw Kaczynski and Mirek Topolanek, photo: CTK
Prime Minister Mirek Topolanek had this to say on the matter at a
joint-press conference on Monday:

"We discussed possible to steps to take in negotiations in great
detail, as well as Russia's stance, and NATO's position. We think it is in
our common interest to negotiate the best terms possible and build
anti-missile defence bases in our countries."

Nikolay Solovtsov, photo: CTK
But not all has been hunky dory regarding the US plans: in recent weeks
Russia has markedly stepped up criticism, clearly unhappy with the idea of
new bases on its doorstep. Russian President Vladimir Putin has warned that
any such move would provoke Russian reaction, and on Monday Nikolay
Solovtsov - the general in charge of Russia's strategic missile defence
force - indicated the type of measures his country might take. He said,
for instance, that any US bases in Poland and the Czech Republic will be
added to his country's target list, and has even threatened that Russia
might withdraw from the Cold War-era INF treaty banning medium-range
missiles. His words provoked strong reaction from NATO and others.

But is there substance to Russia's warning? A little earlier I spoke with
Oldrich Bures, a specialist in international relations at Palacky
University in Olomouc and asked him how he saw recent developments.

"I think that the response has been strong but strong only in terms
of the rhetoric: otherwise it has been following what has been going on in
the last few months, along the trend in Russian foreign policy where Russia
has become more self-assertive, due - I would argue - to the solving of
many domestic concerns. The country has repaid most of its foreign debt
and Mr Putin has also consolidated his political power domestically. He is
now more able to say whatever he wants. He has neither internal nor
external constraints on what he's about to say. The other reason why I
think he is trying to be more assertive is because there will be
presidential elections soon and parliamentary elections to the Duma. So I
would see it more oriented towards a domestic audience."

In other words talking tough to gain political kudos at home.

"Scoring political points at home. There is certainly a feeling in
Russian foreign policy, if you read the Russian press, that Russia gave
'too much' in the 1990s and even the early years of Mr Putin's presidency.
They feel that now it's time that Russia be treated more seriously and for
the West, or at least for the US to follow up on promises that they made
in the past."

The Czech Republic and Poland (as well as the US) now face the task of
persuading Russia that the defence bases would be against potential rogue
attacks by states like Iran or eventually North Korea and not Russia at
all. Do you think they will face difficulties in that respect?

"Yes. I think that they will face difficulties because the whole
anti-ballistic missile system is, at least militarily speaking, quite a
questionable enterprise. There are still questions whether it will really
work the way it is supposed to once it is available. In terms of missiles
from North Korea or Iran it's also a question whether they would even
reach Europe. On the other hand, it's equally the case that Russia really
has nothing to fear, because its strategic nuclear forces are already
capable of doing whatever damage they want to the Czech Republic, Poland,
or even the United States. They have the means to destroy whatever they
want to destroy and this won't change much."

Although a consultation meeting has been scheduled with the Russian
ambassador in Prague, the Czech Republic's official stance on the radar
base has been unwavering and Czech officials have said they will not bow
to Russian intimidation.

Earlier we asked people on the streets of the Czech capital how they saw
the situation.

Man, mid-20s: "I think Russia isn't dangerous for Western European
countries at all, not in the current political situation."

University student: "A radar base in our country couldn't be the
cause of any possible danger on the part of Russia."

Man, mid-30s: "I think that Russia is dangerous for the Czech
Republic. It's not a problem that has to do with the radar base as such,
it rather has to do with Russia, because Russia is dangerous for
Europe."

Woman, 27 years old: "Russia is just complicated. I mean to say that
the radar base issue is none of their business. It's none of their
business to tell us whether we should have a radar base here or not."