Chandler: Emmy drama nods tough to guess

The 65th annual Primetime Emmy Award nominations will be announced July 18, and as is my tradition, I’m going to risk making a fool of myself and predict who’ll get nods.

Let’s start with the dramas, where — I’ll be honest — my predictions are going to be especially shaky. There’s good reason for that: Dramas in the 2012-13 TV season were exceptionally good, and most of the categories below could be filled two or three times over with worthy nominees.

Outstanding Drama Series: Last year’s slate featured “Boardwalk Empire,” “Mad Men,” “Downton Abbey,” “Game of Thrones,” “Breaking Bad” and the winner, “Homeland.” I wouldn’t be surprised at all to see all of them stay in place. Maybe “Boardwalk” will slip off, but I could be saying that just because I haven’t seen all of its third season yet. I wish there were room for “The Good Wife,” “Parenthood,” “Scandal” and “Hannibal,” but there just isn’t.

Outstanding Lead Actress in a Drama: Last year’s nominees were Julianna Margulies (“The Good Wife”), Glenn Close (“Damages”), Kathy Bates (“Harry’s Law”), Elisabeth Moss (“Mad Men”), Michelle Dockery (“Downton Abbey”) and the winner, Claire Danes (“Homeland”). Only Bates is no longer eligible, so that gives us at least one spot to play with and at least six worthy folks to put in. I’d love to see Vera Farmiga (“Psycho”), Keri Russell (“The Americans”), Kerry Washington (“Scandal”), Emmy Rossum (“Shameless”) and Connie Britton (“Nashville”), but most of all, I’d love to see Tatiana Maslany break through for playing about a half-dozen clones on BBC America’s fantastic “Orphan Black,” which I’m willing to wager most of you have never even heard of. But my prediction is that Britton will take Bates’ place and the slate will otherwise remain unchanged.

Outstanding Lead Actor in a Drama: Here’s last year’s slate: Jon Hamm (“Mad Men”), Hugh Bonneville (“Downton Abbey”), Bryan Cranston (“Breaking Bad”), Michael C. Hall (“Dexter”), Steve Buscemi (“Boardwalk Empire”) and the winner, Damian Lewis (“Homeland”). Hard to argue with any of them repeating except for Bonneville, and that’s only because he’s more of a supporting actor than a lead. Something’s going to have to give, though, because there are just too many worthy hopefuls waiting in the wings, like Kevin Spacey (“House of Cards”), Matthew Rhys (“The Americans”), Timothy Olyphant (“Justified”), Hugh Dancy (“Hannibal”), Peter Krause (“Parenthood”) and more and more and more. This category is just nuts, y’all. I have a feeling, though, that only Bonneville will fall out of the category in Spacey’s favor.

Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Drama: Another category with not much change, I’m afraid. Last year’s slate had Joanne Froggatt (“Downton Abbey”), Christina Hendricks (“Mad Men”), Christine Baranski (“The Good Wife”), Archie Panjabi (“The Good Wife”), Anna Gunn (“Breaking Bad”) and the winner, Maggie Smith (“Downton Abbey”). Maybe Froggatt will slip off, and perhaps the “Good Wife” duo can take a year off, but it’s doubtful, so my official prediction is that nothing changes. But I’d love to see nods for Monica Potter for her Emmy-bait cancer arc on “Parenthood,” perhaps for Elizabeth McGovern for “Downton Abbey,” maybe Hayden Panettiere on “Nashville” and definitely Emilia Clarke on “Game of Thrones.”

Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Drama: Finally, a category that might see some real fluidity! Two of last year’s nominees (Giancarlo Esposito on “Breaking Bad” and Jared Harris on “Mad Men”) aren’t eligible for those roles, and a third, Brendan Coyle of “Downton Abbey,” didn’t submit himself for a nomination. Jim Carter (Carson on “Downton Abbey”) also was nominated last year, but I’d be surprised if he repeated. So we’ve got three, maybe four, open slots to consider on top of shoo-in repeat nominees Aaron Paul (“Breaking Bad”) and Peter Dinklage (“Game of Thrones”). But there are way more than three or four exceptionally worthy actors waiting in the wings, like Nikolaj Coster-Waldau (“Game of Thrones”), Jonathan Banks (“Mad Men”), Mandy Patinkin (“Homeland”), Mads Mikkelsen (“Hannibal” — odd, yes, but that’s how he submitted himself), Walton Goggins (“Justified”), John Slattery (“Mad Men”), Vincent Kartheiser (“Mad Men”), Bobby Cannavale (“Boardwalk Empire”), Dan Stevens (“Downton Abbey”), Noah Emmerich (“The Americans”), Corey Stoll (“House of Cards”), Freddie Highmore (“Psycho” — another questionable categorization, but gotta work with what Emmy voters will have) and, my favorite, Michael Cudlitz on “Southland.” I’m betting on Patinkin, Mikkelsen, Kartheiser and maybe Cannavale, though. (UPDATE: Corrected July 18 to fix the boneheaded mistake of saying that Paul co-stars on "Mad Men" instead of "Breaking Bad.")