Treasure Cay is 15 miles NW of Marsh Harbor. Roads being out will strand outlying communities.

Michael Meldeau‎ to ABACO, BAHAMAS - LIVING ON ISLAND TIME!2 hrsUPDATE SEPTEMBER 3, 2019: Good Afternoon Abaco friends. We are now into the 3rd full day of the Abaco Crisis and the story is unfolding minute by minute. Let’s get right to it. Please understand, confirming information is very very challenging. So please note this is a best effort to get real information out to those following the crisis. We have finally received word out of TREASURE CAY. We are learning that 75% of all structures have been destroyed. Only concrete blocks remain standing in most locations. Remarkably, there are currently no reports of deaths. However, not all persons have been accounted for as of this morning. The TC clinic is reporting injuries. USCG is aware and in route to Treasure Cay and to Corbett Medical Clinic. Shelters in TC are the TC Community Center and the old RBC which are both packed to capacity. Weather conditions on scene continue to be bad for now. Rain with 3-500 ft ceilings and 50-70knt winds are giving search and rescue teams “white knuckle” flight missions. There are numerous private relief efforts under way in the U.S. Many of you have reached to me this morning. THANK YOU! THE PEOPLE OF ABACO NEED YOUR ASSISTANCE! All airports, with the exception to Sandy Point, are currently underwater and inaccessible (SEE MARSH HARBOR AIR FIELD VIDEO BELOW). The Bahamian Gov is not authorizing private aviation over the event area at this time. Please consult with the Bahamian Authorities prior to engaging in relief supply deployment. Great Abaco Highway from Marsh Harbor, South, to Sandy Point are impassable. S.C. Bootle Highway between Marsh Harbor and Treasure remain underwater and, in some areas, the road has been completely washed away (SOURCE: USCG RECON). Efforts should be made to restore access on these roads if at all possible. Sources on the ground in Marsh Harbor are saying this is turning into a humanitarian crisis as sea water continues to flood the areas. People are getting desperate and in need of basic necessities. Without airstrips, and a Cat 3 storm sitting between us, relief aid has become a challenging situation at best. Please continue to pray for the people of Abaco. And hold tight, God is on the move.

The below link will get you to conditions on Man O War Cay, about the center of landfall. They are reporting conditions there and in Marsh Harbor and Abaco Island propped. Sort of real time updates.

The MHH airport is inoperable, under water, with roofs and building debris on the runway. Sandy Point is only place that rescue and relief teams can land, but…all the Ferries to bring people and relief to the island have sunk.

For Elbow Cay right now (where the hurricane made first landfall) — boats, helicopters and planes cannot even get to folks. The UK has sent a medical ship and our US coast guard has been helicoptering people with serious injuries in Abacos to hospitals in Nassau. Lists are being made of supplies and materials needed. A media advisory is being crafted, all through the auspices of Hope Town Volunteer Fire and Rescue. Our sailing club has trusted information available on its website — https://www.hopetownsailingclub.com

A FLOODING TRENDCiting data accumulated since 1898, the researchers noted that six of the largest “highest precipitation events” such as hurricanes and tropical storms have taken place over the past 20 years.

Three of those – hurricanes Floyd, Matthew and Florence – produced wide-spread flooding. Floyd occurred in 1999, Matthew in 2016 and Florence in 2018 – all causing “catastrophic human impacts.”

The probability of these three flooding events occurring in such a short time period is 2 percent, the study noted.

where does the article say that? It says there are officially 30 dead and they think more but they are sending 200 body bags so it seems they do not think there are thousands deceased. It states there are hundreds and thousands missing ...that doesn't mean they are all dead. This seems to be the situation with disasters of this nature elsewhere people go missing as there is virtually no means of communication and people are mostly interested in making sure they get through OK rather than informing people of where they are.

dohboi wrote:Hey, Newf. It looks like Dorian is going to be crossing over your eponymous island pretty soon. Is that pretty rare?

We get hurricanes, or more correctly the tropical storm remnants. It’s fairly rare to have it still a hurricane when it hits here. Igor a few years ago dumped an enormous amount of rain and washed out every culvert and bridge on the Bonavista peninsula. People were stranded, power out, one was swept away.

There are places where they strap the buildings down so they don’t blow away. Winds in the table mountains would occasionally derail a locomotive, enough that they had a resident to report strong winds.

September 21, 2010: Hurricane Igor struck Cape Race, Newfoundland as a large Category 1 hurricane, resulting in major flooding and widespread power outages. Many communities were forced to declare a state of emergency, and some evacuated completely as the storm approached. Igor was unusual in that it restrengthened somewhat during its final approach despite being over cool water. As the storm made landfall near Cape Race, maximum sustained winds were estimated to be at least 120 km/h (80 mph), but gusts up to 170 km/h (105 mph) were reported.[31] Hurricane Igor produced hurricane conditions throughout the Avalon Peninsula and tropical storm conditions over the remainder of the island. Media outlets have stated that Igor was the worst hurricane to hit Newfoundland in a century.

Below is a post I picked up on another board describing the hurricane in Vreen Turtle Cay.

This is a letter I sent to friends when I got back to Florida from Green Turtle Cay.

Things have been somewhat hectic the last few days. A major hurricane is supposed to pass over the Abacos in a couple of days so I flew from Fort Lauderdale to Marsh Harbour. Just before leaving the States I got an urgent message from some French friends that their starter motor on their boat Kisskadee had died and could I bring a new one over to the Bahamas? Their engine is so old that they no longer make a starter motor for that particular engine so a new one had to be made up especially…….which meant that I was down to the wire waiting for the thing to be delivered before my flight left.

Long story short. The damned thing didn’t fit in the engine compartment so they had to chop a bit out to get it in. Engine now running but it is too late to run for Miami so they are stuck here till after the hurricane.

I met Simon in Marsh Harbour and we towed the Kisskadee to Treasure Cay where they can weather the storm, then we came on to Green Turtle Cay where my boat has been for the last two months. Miraculously everything seems to be working on the boat and today we have been sorting out extra lines and untangling chain etc. Simon spent about two hours in the water diving around the ground tackle and having to scare away a nurse shark!

It is very hot after England and this afternoon I am running the generator and giving the AC a run. This evening Simon from Observation is coming over to eat on my boat as he has fed me for the last two days. He also tells me that there is a big fat snapper under the boat so I might try fishing later.

My phone is not on the local server yet as the Bahamas Telephone people are all at home getting ready for the storm. I guess that problem will have to wait.

As of this moment……..4.30 Friday we are expecting a direct hit with 130 mph winds on Sunday. The problem is the damned thing has slowed right down in it forward momentum so we could be in it for whole day! We hope the center moves a little to the north so we don’t go through the eye.

Addition 8 days later after the storm.

So we spent Saturday and Sunday making last minute preparations for the coming wind storm. At that time it was now classed as a cat 5 hurricane and we were offered shelter in a concrete basement belonging to Donny Sawyer, a guy I have known for some years and the owner of Donny’s Rentals, a small business with a dock and rental boats for hire. The main storm winds were projected to arrive about 1.30 in the afternoon of Sunday 1st September, but by 10.30 in the morning the winds were nearing 50 mph, so I and Simon took his dinghy ashore and made our way to the refuge under Donny’s house.

By 12 the winds were really getting up and soon after we entered the eye wall. Because of our position in relation to the eye, we actually were stuck in the thing for about 4 hours, with huge blasts of wind and heavy torrential rainfall. Later we were told that one gust reached 220mph, but most of it was well over 150mph. Visibility was down to about 50 yards so we couldn’t see our boats out of the moorings in the bay.

After about 30 minutes of the big winds the house above the basement gave way and great chunks of house went flying through the air. This brought on a major problem as we now had just a wooden floor and a carpet above us to protect against the rain………which it didn’t. So for the next 48 hours we lived under a shower of water drops and slept as best we could on a very wet floor that had to be cleared every two hours or so.

The noise was fantastic as great gusts tore at the trees and what remained of the house. Every tree in sight was soon denuded of leaves and most of them were knocked to the ground. Every now and again tornadoes would suck debris up into the air or slam bits and pieces against our shelter.

By five the eye wall had moved on and Justin (Donny’s son) and I went for a walk. This was totally crazy as it was still blowing a full cat one hurricane, but after what we had been through it seemed like a stiff breeze. Simon’s boat was now resting about 15 feet above sea level on top of a raft of broken trees. Canted at 45 degrees the boat was a sorry sight, especially as the main mast had broken about twenty feet from the deck.

My boat had dragged backwards onto the public dock and beaten itself to death against the dock and was now sunk. The rigging had held and so had the lines to the mooring block, but the giant wind had been just too much for the block and the whole thing had been dragged across the harbour.

The Sunday night saw the wind move round to the SE and blow at about 50mph with heavy rain. Our shelter became a wet-hell hole and we had to sweep the place out every two hours or so. No one slept that much and the Monday morning brought no relief. By now the hurricane was over Grand Bahama and basically stationary. There it sat for 24 hours and then reluctantly moved off to the north, narrowly missing the Florida coast. Tuesday was not that much better. Lots of wind and rain. I walked into New Plymouth. Nearly everything was smashed up but strangely a house with the date 1866 over the doorway was in pretty good shape. I guess they knew how to build houses in those days.

Wednesday.

I spent a number of hours helping clear up the mess in the demolished house. Basically scraping stuff into a trailer and dumping it at the local tip. Simon and I built a ramp so that we could get onto his boat and get some food etc and other bits and pieces to make our situation a bit better. The wind still blew hard with intermittent showers so everything remained very damp.

Thursday.

Donny told us that he wanted to get off the island on Saturday and could we move out of the basement so he could secure his tools etc in the only bit of he house he could lock up. He had one surviving dinghy and ran us over to Treasure Cay Ferry Dock, as the ferries were all lost except one. From there a friendly local took us to the Treasure Cay Airport. There were perhaps 600 people trying to get flights out but the only planes coming in were small private planes from Florida, loaded with relief supplies. At about 10 am a large Bahamas Air plane landed with troops and police and began taking women and children aboard to fly to Nassau. There was no official organization on the airfield or traffic control, but somehow the whole thing worked and locals ferried the supplies away in battered vehicles to a central point.

Simon and I spent the day talking to the pilots of the small planes going back to Florida, with out much luck, and as the evening drew in we were resigned to sleeping on the tarmac. There was plenty to live on and we managed to scrounge a chair, a small mattress and some sort of aircraft cover that would make life a bit more comfortable. Just before the sun went down another small plane came in and we managed to get aboard in the cargo hold.

Arrived at West Palm Beach Jet Center and cleared in as “evacuuees”. Got a taxi to Simon’s friends house and arrived there about 9.30pm. Showers, air conditioning at last. I had escaped Hurricane Dorian with only a small cut on my left foot!

Dorian One of Strongest, Longest-Lasting Hurricanes on Record in the Atlantic

... Dorian was also among the longest-lasting named storms, Klotzbach said. As of Friday evening, it had been a named storm for more than 13 days, nine of them as a hurricane.

"It's quite unusual for a hurricane to remain a hurricane for as many days as Dorian has," said climate scientist Michael Mann.... ... Dorian May Have Influenced the Gulf Stream

It also looks like Dorian may also have influenced the Gulf Stream, the strong ocean current that brings warm water from the Gulf of Mexico into the Atlantic Ocean, possibly contributing to localized coastal flooding.

An undersea monitor near Miami indicated that Dorian might have slowed the speed of that current, with powerful winds pushing against it, along with a disruptive underwater churn. A slower Gulf Stream can cause the surface of the ocean to rise by several inches to a foot or more, said Tal Ezer, an oceanographer at Old Dominion University in Norfolk, Va.

That would underlie any storm surge, he said, and the effect can linger for days as it did in 2016 in Norfolk with extended sunny weather flooding the aftermath of Hurricane Matthew, whose path was similar to Dorian's. He said he's looking for that to happen in the coming days.

"After the hurricane disappears, streets remained flooded," he said. "The drainage system was blocked and couldn't drain the rain."

100’ rogue wave off Newfoundland. Sounds like it was in the Cabot Straits.

While Dorian was pulling away from the United States Saturday night, parts of the Canadian Maratimes were getting battered with 100 m.p.h. wind gusts. But Dorian's most terrifying feat in Canada may not have struck on land. Dorian whipped up a hundred-foot rogue wave.

A buoy owned and operated by the Marine Institute at Memorial University of Newfoundland recorded the monster wave Saturday night, while winds gusting above 60 m.p.h. struck the area. Three other waves topped 75 feet.

Wow! I hope you never have to encounter anything like that on your little craft!

Meanwhile:Hurricane Dorian Was a Climate Injustice

The Bahamas has been struck by many of the storms that have plowed through the Caribbean in the last few decades: Hurricane Andrew, Hurricane Floyd, Ike, Matthew, Irma, and so on. We’re familiar with their destruction, and so we have our protocols, our shelters, our rigorous building codes, and our years and years of experience. We also have the stories that have been passed down through generations, the ones that taught us about the worst dangers of the hurricanes that have hit our archipelago, and the legends of how people survived them.

But that’s no longer enough. “I have never seen nothing like that,” a woman screams at the top of her lungs in a video that was widely shared on Instagram. “There’s not one house in Marsh Harbor that’s standing,” she says. “Dead bodies everywhere.” Her eyes are wide and darting quickly, as if she has just seen a ghost, or many. “That couldn’t have just been a hurricane.”

"September 1 is now a day etched into the marble of Bahamian history and Bahamian memory. But it’s also a day that should be remembered the world over: the day that our accumulated choices and our inaction against climate change swelled into a storm."

dohboi wrote: But it’s also a day that should be remembered the world over: the day that our accumulated choices and our inaction against climate change swelled into a storm."

Unfortunately Dorian destroyed a culture of poor brown people. The world will forget lickety split. To have had the impact you state here it should have skirted right by the Bahamas as a category 5 and stalled right above Mar a Largo in West Palm Beach.

These hurricanes are racist.

Our resiliency resembles an invasive weed. We are the Kudzu Apeblog: http://blog.mounttotumas.com/website: http://www.mounttotumas.com

Yup. In general, the effects of AGW will effect the poor and non-white fastest and hardest, and of course those are the folks with the least resources to make a recovery.

OTOH, the first singular event that could unmistakably be attributed to AGW (with over 99% probability) was the killer European heatwave of '03...tens of thousands of white, mostly relatively well off Europeans, especially from France/Paris, died in a matter of days.

But that still basically didn't move the needle on crashing our ff consumption.

So I am pessimistic that any event, however horrible and no matter who it hits, will have much of an effect on waking people up.