The Eagles are 5-5 SU and ATS with a 5.5 winning margin on average and +6.6 differential versus the spread. At home, they are 4-0 SU with a whopping 17.5 winning margin and +17.5 differential versus the spread. Those are heady numbers indeed. It’s insane to even consider going against such stats, right? Well, the Eagles have only won two of their last five games which speaks to a considerable dip in form (they started the season with three straight wins on the trot). Most recently, they lost to the Seahawks 26-15 on the road. It’s a long shot NFL pick to go against the grain so. Particularly, when the Packers are just 1-4 SU on the road and 2-3-0 ATS with an -8.0 losing margin on average and -8.4 differential versus the spread. Still, it’s MNF. Aaron Rodgers is coming off a good game himself in Washington and if the defense (what’s left of it) can get at rookie Carson Wentz, this could be the game that goes against the grain on week 12 NFL picks.

What’s wrong with the Packers has been the main soundbite coming out of each and every weekend since the Packers embarked on a four-game losing streak. Well, the latest 42-24 loss to the Washington Redskins in Sunday Night Football can’t really be laid at his feet. He was simply stellar and did his part to keep the Packers in it for the better part of the game. Unfortunately, the Packers’thinning defense just broke down in the end and the Redskins ran off on the scoreboard. On recent form, it’s impossible to justify a bet on the Packers to win straight up in Philadelphia, where the Eagles remain undefeated behind a 4-0 SU record. However, this is do or die if the Packers want to keep whatever slim hope of a playoff spot alive.

Given the issues on the defensive side of the ball, the Packers have been conceding in abundance and, as such, the last three games have cracked the total well and truly. Overall, they are 6-4-0 in O/U betting. The Eagles, by contrast, are 5-5-0 in O/U betting with an offense that is scoring 24.1 points per game and a defense that is conceding 18.6 points per game. This one is a real tossup on week 12 NFL picks, but given the current trend in Packers’ games the OVER does seem to be the smart NFL pick.