The big fights, the best fighters and the colorful characters in the world of boxing.

Friday, May 2, 2014

Previews: Mayweather-Maidana, Khan-Collazo

Pound-for-pound
king Floyd Mayweather (45-0, 26 KOs) returns to the ring on Saturday to take on
rugged Argentine welterweight titlist Marcos Maidana (35-3, 31 KOs) at the MGM
Grand Arena in Las Vegas. As is often customary during a Mayweather fight week,
non-boxing items have dominated much of the lead-up to the fight. Mayweather
has talked about another retirement, expressed interest in buying the Los
Angeles Clippers and provided details about his breakup with his ex-girlfriend.
But come Saturday, an actual fight will take place. Or at least two men will be
in the ring. Boxing fans hope that a fight does indeed occur.

Mayweather
is a significant favorite over Maidana, who according to conventional wisdom
lacks the finesse, foot speed or ring savvy to cause much of a problem in this
matchup. But Maidana does have a punch and he's a relentless fighter. Maidana
received his opportunity to face Mayweather by defeating Adrien Broner in
December, and Broner is a boxer who possesses some similar characteristics to
Mayweather. Maidana sent Broner to the canvas twice and won a
comfortable decision victory. But is what worked for Maidana against Broner
applicable to Mayweather? Will Maidana be able to land with the same
kind of effectiveness?

In the
ring there are three major separators between Mayweather and Broner. Most
distinctively, Mayweather uses his legs a lot more to fend off aggression. Many
boxing observers see the Philly shell defense and immediately point out the
similarities between the two fighters. However, Broner is essentially a pocket
fighter; Mayweather uses the whole ring to his advantage. He is a master at
resetting action, tying up on the inside, dictating pace and flow and picking spots to potshot or initiate combinations.

Another
important distinction is Mayweather's refusal to engage in toe-to-toe battles.
It's a question of temperament. Staying in the pocket, Broner believed that his
accuracy and power would grind down Maidana. Instead, it was his own chin that
betrayed him. Mayweather does a much better job of using angles, spacing,
clinching and movement to reduce action. He gets personally offended when hit
with a good shot and he tries to shut down those instances. Broner is much more of
a give-and-take fighter.

Finally,
Mayweather's defense is just much better than Broner's is. He's wonderful at
using his arms and elbows to pick off shots, rolling with punches to minimize
their impact, turning his body away from incoming power and spinning out from
trouble. In short, they are very different fighters.

Let's not
sugarcoat this. Maidana is up against it on Saturday. Mayweather's accuracy,
conditioning and intelligence will put him in an excellent position to win, and
win comfortably. But Maidana is not without hope; however, he must create opportunities for himself. Here are three things he needs to do to have
a chance of winning:

1. Sell out
with big shots early

2. Target
the body

3. Use both
hands to initiate offense.

Mayweather
will often give opponents the first few rounds. He takes time to study his
foes, see what they have and get a feel for their timing, punch sequences,
power and speed. Usually by the third or fourth round he has seen enough and
starts to open up offensively. From that point on his opponents often run out
of luck.

Against
Broner, Maidana faced a fighter who employed a similar strategy. However,
Maidana was able to knock down Broner with a left hook in the second round that changed the complexion of the fight. Broner was clearly rattled and
wasn't able to get into his usual comfort zone.

Maidana
needs the same kind of impact in this fight. He does hit very hard. If he lands
a big hook or right hand, he could certainly hurt Mayweather or even get him
down to the canvas. Immediately, Maidana would have an early advantage in the
fight.

Too many
boxers have this silly notion that they are going to outbox Mayweather from
mid-range. They give Mayweather undue respect and within a short time they
get carved up and psychologically demoralized. Maidana can't get caught up in
that trap. He has to realize that he can't win by boxing. Power will be his
only salvation. If he misses a few shots, gets tagged on counters or finds
himself out of position, he must not lose faith in his game plan. He only needs
to land one huge shot to change the fight.

However,
landing that big punch is easier said than done against Mayweather. Maidana
will have to set it up. His straight right hand upstairs is his best weapon but
he often telegraphs it. A fighter as alert as Mayweather is will see that right hand coming before it is even released. Maidana's best bet is to work downstairs as often as
possible. Single jabs or right hands to the body will change Mayweather's eye
level and make him conscious of a different approach. If Maidana can land a few
shots to the body, opportunities for headshots will open up, specifically
his left hook and his overhand and/or looping right hand. Now, it won't be easy
to land much on Mayweather's body but Maidana must stay with it.

Trainer
Robert Garcia has done an excellent job of improving Maidana's jab and
incorporating feints and disguises into his attack (the first knockdown of
Broner was actually Maidana feinting a left jab to the body but instead coming
upstairs with a left hook). Maidana will need to use these weapons on Saturday.

Ultimately,
for Maidana to have success he will have to make Mayweather respect both of his
hands. If he just loads up on power rights, he will be a sitting duck for
Mayweather's counters and potshots. Maidana must work his jab and left hook and
mix in rights to the body, looping shots and straight right hands. The more
punches that he can feature, the better shot that something hard lands.

So, this
is the blueprint. But is it likely? Honestly, I don't think so. Maidana has
improved in the last two years but his hand and foot speed significantly lag
behind those of Mayweather. If Mayweather wanted to make the fight a track
meet, I don't see how Maidana could do well in that context. Similarly,
Mayweather can feast on Maidana by using angles, turning him and getting in and
out with quick shots and combinations. Maidana's relentless but he can be
predictable. He also lacks the creativity that could really trouble
Mayweather.

I don't
think that fans will be entertained by the fight. Mayweather will use
Maidana's aggression and straight-line movements against him to coast to a
fairly easy victory. I'm sure that Mayweather will be hit hard once or twice
but I don't think that it will be enough to change the tenor of the fight.

Floyd
Mayweather defeats Marcos Maidana 118-110, or 10 rounds to 2.

**********************************************

On paper,
the most interesting matchup of the night is the welterweight clash between
Amir Khan (28-3, 19 KOs) and Luis Collazo (35-5, 18 KOs). Khan missed out on
this round of the Mayweather sweepstakes but he has a chance to lock up that fight with an excellent performance against Collazo. Boxing had
essentially left Collazo for dead at the end of 2011 after he lost to
journeyman Freddy Hernandez. In that fight, Collazo was knocked down and
looked like his best days were far behind him. But after some time off, Collazo
rebounded and scored his best win in years earlier in 2014 by knocking out
Victor Ortiz with a huge right hook in the second round.

There are
some interesting parallels between Khan and Collazo. Both have had
opportunities on the big stage before and have come up short. Collazo dropped
close decisions to Ricky Hatton and Andre Berto (many observers believe that
Collazo won at least one of those fights) and was soundly defeated by Shane
Mosley. Khan lost two of the biggest fights of his career, by fouling his way
to defeat against Lamont Peterson (a fight many believe that Khan won) and by
getting starched against Danny Garcia. For both Khan and Collazo, they were one
or two wins away from much bigger things in the sport.

Sizing up
the matchup, Khan has a number of advantages over Collazo. His hand and foot
speed are superior. He has a better work rate. He throws flashy combinations
that appeal to judges. He's wonderful at building up early leads.

However,
he has some well-known drawbacks. Khan's chin is shaky. He's been down a
half-dozen times in his career and there were other bouts (such as his matchup
against Maidana) were he was almost as good as down. He also fades during
fights. Khan can be one of the best frontrunners in the sport, but many of his
bouts (such as Maidana, Peterson and Julio Diaz) find him holding on for dear
life in the final rounds. He also has several technical flaws that can be
exploited by intelligent opponents. He admires his work in the pocket after
combinations, leaving himself vulnerable to counters. Khan also takes too long
to return his hands to a defensively responsible position. In addition, he has
no idea how to fight off of the ropes.

Collazo
can start slowly and, at times, waits too long before letting his hands go. He
can be outworked. And although he is a sharp, accurate counterpuncher, it isn't
as if his power is so special that judges feel compelled to give him rounds
where he has been outlanded.

Collazo is very proficient at using angles and footwork to land flush shots.
He's a tricky guy in the ring. He employs a lot of quick lateral movement but
he doesn't run. Despite not being a big welterweight, he is very adept at inside
fighting and goes to the body well in close.

Khan-Collazo
is pretty close to a toss-up fight. Khan is fresher and will score with
his jab and quick combinations. The essential question is whether or not his
chin will hold up. If it does, he stands an excellent chance of winning. On the
other side of the equation, can Collazo finish a hurt Khan? Before Ortiz (who,
let's face it, didn't try his hardest to get up from that knockdown), you'd
have to go a long way back to find an impressive stoppage win on Collazo's
resume. He's not feather-fisted but the Ortiz knockout was an anomaly. Does
Collazo have the killer instinct to finish Khan off? Will he sell out for the
knockout if it's there?

Ultimately,
a win for either fighter wouldn't be surprising. When all
factors are considered, I just don't trust Khan's chin or his decision making.
He was lucky to survive against Diaz and that fight was below the 147-lb.
limit. I don't like how Khan refuses to tie-up when hurt. He exerts too much
energy in these situations and falls prey to needlessly macho behavior. I think
that Collazo comes from behind, steadily breaks Khan down and gets rid of him
late for the biggest win of his career. But I could just as easily be wrong
about this fight. We'll see. I'm definitely intrigued.