Brumby bites the dust

What are the national implications of Labor's defeat in the Victorian state election?

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TRACY BOWDEN, REPORTER: Victorian Liberal Leader Ted Baillieu is set to be sworn in as the state's 46th premier after Labor's John Brumby conceded defeat late today, two days after the election.

The State Coalition has won by a slim margin, and as post mortems abound on the result, senior Liberals claim it was the decision not to preference the Greens in inner-city seats that handed them victory. They've urged their federal and state counterparts to take note, since the Greens failed to pick up a single seat in the Victorian Lower House.

Political editor Heather Ewart.

JOHN BRUMBY, OUTGOING PREMIER: We simply don't have a clear result.

TED BAILLIEU, INCOMING PREMIER: The final election outcome may still be uncertain.

AUDIENCE MEMBER: No it's not!

(Laughter).

JOHN BRUMBY: We have something like 550,000 pre-poll votes still to be counted. As a consequence, I believe we will not know the result of this election for some days.

HEATHER EWART, REPORTER: John Brumby was never going to let go of the reins easily and it took until early this evening, two days after the election, for him to concede defeat.

JOHN BRUMBY: I've just spoken to Mr Baillieu, to Ted Baillieu, and I've congratulated him on his election victory.

HEATHER EWART: The outgoing Premier's last forlorn hope was at the counting of postal and provisional votes in the Melbourne seat of Bentleigh would deliver a hung Parliament. He finally bowed to the inevitable, flanked by his family and with his old ministerial team looking on.

JOHN BRUMBY: Although the seat of Bentleigh is still not declared, it would take an extraordinary shift in those preferences, something like 70-30 with remaining votes to be counted, and so therefore the most likely outcome of this election is a Coalition victory of 45-43.

HEATHER EWART: Until his news conference, John Brumby was starting to look like a man who didn't know when to call it quits. His Labor colleagues knew it was all over, but felt the need to defend his decision to hang on until the last moment.

BILL SHORTEN, ASSISTANT TREASURER: In a football match, even when your team is behind and perhaps has no realistic prospect of winning, you don't walk off the ground until the siren sounds. The person in charge of the siren is the Victorian electoral commissioner.

HEATHER EWART: Opposition Leader Ted Baillieu had already decided the writing was on the wall. Confident he'd win the crucial seat needed to form government, this morning he called together his frontbench team to prepare to take over.

JOURNALIST: You ready to form Government, Ted?

TED BAILLIEU: Well, one step at a time, but we've had a good meeting, a very constructive and productive meeting and we're looking forward to the days ahead.

HEATHER EWART: HEATHER EWART: Well before the concession speech, the post-mortems were underway. The overriding theme was that after 11 years in government, Labor's time was up and that state elections in NSW next year and Queensland in 2012* would go the same way.

JOHN BRUMBY: The simple fact of politics is that governments seeking to serve a mandate for well in excess of a decade face an extremely difficult time.

NICK ECONOMOU, MONASH UNI: Yes, there's a sense that the great Labor era is coming to an end in Australian politics, which was inevitable.

HEATHER EWART: Still, right up to election day, Labor in Victoria clung to the hope it could sneak in by one or two seats. That's because despite problems with areas like public transport, it considered itself to be a good and effective government, unlike its counterparts in neighbouring NSW. But its fate was sealed - and this is accepted by both sides - when the Liberals decided midway through the campaign not to preference the Greens in crucial inner-city seats.

Did that decision not to preference the Greens win you the election?

HELEN KROGER, VICTORIAN LIBERAL: Without doubt. I think there is no doubt about that. When that decision was made there was a real change in the dynamics of the campaign. People became focused on the campaign.

BILL SHORTEN: One of the things which was disappointing in this election is that the Greens split the Labor effort, they forced us to fight them on the extreme left, but also have to fight the Liberals on the right. When you're fighting and deploying resources across a whole range of electorates - the inner-city, the middle eastern suburbs, the south-east and the country - it's a real - it is a real drain and a real effort. The Liberal Party only had to win seats off Labor. They weren't competing with the Greens. And the Greens weren't trying to win any seats off the Liberal Party; they were only trying to eat Labor's lunch.

HEATHER EWART: The Greens thought they could pick up four seats with Liberal preferences. Their vote in the inner-city did increase very marginally on the last state election, but not enough to stop claims their support has plateaued.

NICK ECONOMOU: I think so, but the Greens have themselves to blame a little bit there because of the success that they had in the federal election; I think it raised expectations to an unrealistic level. And the electoral system at the end of the day, plus the two party system, has prevailed in Victoria.

ADAM BANDT, FEDERAL GREENS MP: Even with the Liberals preferencing against the Greens, we still are within a few per cent of winning these seats and that puts us in an extraordinarily good position for next time. Yes, it would have been great to be celebrating some Greens victories on Saturday night, but we are now in a very, very strong position to start winning these seats in our own right.

HEATHER EWART: What message does this send to your federal counterparts and your state counterparts?

HELEN KROGER: Well I think it sends a big message and provides a lesson for all state coalitions and the federal Coalition and that is that voters reward and respect you for standing up for what you believe in. They respect you taking strong decision. They don't respect people toying with the idea of getting into bed with extremists. You know, this was like the Labor Party deciding to get into bed with One Nation and preferencing One Nation. We never saw it happen. They respect decisiveness and leadership, and I think that in itself will be a salient lesson for all.

HEATHER EWART: And that may spell trouble for the Greens member for the federal set sea of Melbourne, Adam Bandt, who got in at the last election with the help of Liberal preferences.

But that's all down the track. Tonight it was farewell to John Brumby, a man who failed to convince the voters or win an election in his own right, but received the utmost praise from his closest factional colleagues.

BILL SHORTEN: He's been a great premier and a great treasurer because he's left Victoria better than when he found it. He's managed to balance the tasks of both the heart and the head.

HEATHER EWART: It's been such a great honour for me to have served this great state and represented the people of Victoria. Thankyou very much.

TRACY BOWDEN: Political editor Heather Ewart there.

*Editor's note: (December 6) this article originally reported that both the NSW and Queensland elections would be next year.