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Federal Conservative leadership race wide open, poll suggests

The race to lead the federal Conservatives appears to be wide open, a new poll suggests.

A new poll by Forum Research shows Conservative leadership candidate Maxime Bernier leading with 14 per cent followed by Tony Clement at 9 per cent. More than half of respondents — 54 per cent — said they would prefer “someone else” than the names tested by the polling firm. (Sean Kilpatrick / THE CANADIAN PRESS file photo)

The race to lead the federal Conservatives appears to be wide open, a new poll suggests.

Quebec MP Maxime Bernier led with 14 per cent followed by fellow former cabinet minister Tony Clement, an Ontario MP, at 9 per cent in the Forum Research survey.

“This is early days so it’s more name awareness,” Forum president Lorne Bozinoff said Tuesday.

“There’s little awareness of any of the candidates. None of the candidates have really excited anybody and I think that’s depressing the race right now,” he said.

More than half of respondents — 54 per cent — said they would prefer “someone else” than the names tested by the polling firm.

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Ontario MP Michael Chong was at 7 per cent, ahead of Saskatchewan MP Andrew Scheer, the former Commons speaker, at 5 per cent, and Ontario’s Kellie Leitch — an ex-minister who has generated headlines with a pledge to screen refugees and new immigrants for “Canadian values” — was at 4 per cent.

While that controversial promise helped land Leitch on the cover of Maclean’s magazine, Bozinoff said it does not seem to have resonated with those surveyed.

“She hasn’t really broken out,” he said.

Using interactive voice-response telephone calls, Forum surveyed 1,143 Canadians between Friday and Sunday with results considered accurate to within three percentage points 19 times out of 20.

Durham MP Erin O’Toole and defeated MP Chris Alexander, who lost his seat in the 2015 federal election, have yet to officially enter the contest but were at 3 per cent apiece.

Saskatchewan MP Brad Trost was at 2 per cent. Forum did not test Alberta MP Deepak Obhrai’s name in the survey.

Asked for their “second choice” in the leadership, Clement received 10 per cent support with 8 per cent for Bernier, 7 per cent for Chong, 5 per cent apiece for Alexander, Leitch, and Scheer, 3 per cent each for O’Toole and Trost, and 55 per cent preferred “someone else.”

That means Bernier is the first or second choice for 22 per cent followed by Clement with 19 per cent.

Bozinoff said it is difficult for the Tories to get traction as they seek a permanent replacement to former prime minister Stephen Harper, who led the party since it was formed out of the ashes of the Progressive Conservatives and Canadian Alliance in 2004.

“They’re the opposition party. They’re three years away from the election so they’re in a bit of a slump because of that. And (Liberal Prime Minister Justin) Trudeau remaining popular on top of all that,” he said.

“They don’t really have someone who’s an exciting leader at the moment. If one of the candidates was more exciting, there would be a little more interest in the race.”

Among the 355 respondents who self-identified as Conservative supporters, the findings were similar to the broader results.

Bernier was at 17 per cent, Clement at 14 per cent, Chong, Leitch, and Scheer at 6 per cent, Trost at 4 per cent, Alexander at 3 per cent, O’Toole at 2 per cent, and “someone else” at 41 per cent.

Where appropriate, poll results have been statistically weighted by age, region, and other variables to ensure the sample reflects the actual population according to the latest census data.

Forum houses its complete results in the data library of the University of Toronto’s political science department.

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