If Romney wins Ohio, then Obama's chances look dim. Let's give him the tossups where he is leading: Nevada, Colorado, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Iowa (also note that only in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan is he leading by more than the margin of error).

Romney has Indiana and Missouri solidly in his column, has a significant lead now in North Carolina, and is tied with Obama in the traditionally red state of Virginia and the swing states of New Hampshire and Florida, so we'll Virginia. See as how Obama only won these state by a slim margin due to high turnout among minorities in 2008, let's give those states to Romney this time.

This all means that if Romney wins Ohio, then Obama has to win either Virginia or Florida to win, and the latest polls out of those states show that they're true tossups, but given that they've trended Republican for the past 10 years, Obama will have a tall mountain the climb.