Rambling, rumbling, rumination

A Different Cataclysm

I’ve suggested it in a few comments recently on other blogs, and I’ve argued it for a while in one form or another, but I wanted to put a fine point on it for posterity. Let’s not call this a prediction, since I don’t think Blizzard will do this (it’s potentially a lot of work and has a few wrinkles to iron out), but I’d recommend it.

The Cataclysm expansion is a perfect time for Blizzard to jump into the wider MMO market by diversifying their business model. The recent trend of formerly subscription-only MMOs converting to item shop microtransaction business models isn’t a surprise, nor is it a move of desperation. It’s realization that the MMO market is diversifying and maturing, and that the old ways of doing business aren’t going to work forever.

World of Warcraft is a bastion of subscription gaming, a behemoth that operates by its own rules, seemingly independant of the overall market. Be that as it may, ignoring customers served by the so-called “free to play” or F2P games is effectively conceding strategic ground in the larger market. It’s often suggested that converting WoW to one of these F2P critters may well not be more profitable for Blizzard, so it’s not likely. I’m not convinced of that, but even conceding that as a given, as someone recently noted (Bhagpuss, I think, but please forgive me for remembering incorrectly if not), companies don’t always make moves for immediate profit. Sometimes it’s about claiming market share or positioning themselves for future projects. *

* This is one counterpoint to my recommendation, actually. Blizzard might be angling for the wider market with their next big MMO project. Since that’s likely not imminent, though, I’m setting that aside, because the market is changing now, and Blizzard is oddly reticent to keep pace.

With that in mind, the release of Cataclysm provides a perfect excuse both in lore and in business to make a significant change to the WoW business plan. What better time to break up the world than when a dragon is doing it for you?

Specifically, I would recommend that they take the Old World of Warcraft (the content from level 1 to 60, sometimes called “vanilla” WoW) and break it off into its own product, literally breaking the game into pieces. They should then sell this like Guild Wars, as a single purchase that can then be played in perpetuity. They should then keep the “live” Cataclysm-era world going for subscribers. Players can upgrade from the Old World to the Live World, but not migrate backwards (maybe with some restrictions to keep gold sellers down, like no money migration).

This could neatly corner the F2P market by outflanking the other big movers in the field, including EQ2X, LOTRO, DDO and even GW and GW2, while still providing the subscriber experience that current users are accustomed to.

There are problems, to be sure. There’s the possible need for two dev teams and consequent potential for divergent evolution. There’s the need for new servers and the potential to confuse customers (who apparently don’t know how to spend their own money, the filthy proletariats). There’s the likelihood of subbers just playing around in the Single Purchase Old World and losing some part of the WoW money pump. There’s the banshee chorus of haters and fanboys who would proclaim the doom of Blizzard for deigning to let those people play the game. There’s the work necessary to make things actually work. There’s the question of what to let current players do. (I’d suggest that anyone wanting to go to the Old World can do so, but it would be a complete reboot; everyone starts from scratch. Current subbers who want to sidegrade can start new characters on the Old World servers like anyone else, without needing to purchase the game again. They would have to pay a sub to play in the CAT era on CAT servers, but could play in the Old World without a hiccup, just starting over on the new servers.) There is risk involved, as even WoW may not be able to function in its own shadow. (But that’s a concern for their new MMO, too.)

Still, the timing is right for such a move, a grab at owning the best of both worlds. In retrospect, perhaps, this will be obviously wrong, depending on whatever they do with their next MMO, but for now, looking at the market and the state of WoW, I’d say it’s an obvious move, and a smart one. (This is, of course, totally ignoring the larger question of whether or not more WoW domination of the market is good for the players. I think that could be argued either way, though, so maybe I’ll save that for an exercise later.) There’s even room for more mutations, like true “classic” servers and private, gated communities for discerning customers, but one step at a time…

Of course details would need to be ironed out, and suits would need to be convinced. Kotick would need to be bribed or something. I’m convinced it’s not an intractible problem, though, and this may be the best time for such an earth-shattering, industry-shaking… cataclysmic business move.

…though I must admit, if it didn’t prove to sell well, just like if Blizzard’s new MMO doesn’t do well, leaving WoW as the clear aberration that I think it is, well… I’d laugh.

WoW is a stone-age design game. But a good and proven one, and people love it. They love it as it is, WoW fans might cry for innovation, but in fact most are happy with the way the things are and cry havoc when the slightest changes happen.

They also have to match their payment models to that clientele. Right now they are slowly boiling the frog erm sparkly pony to make them get used to more micro transactions.

But there is no need to. Let every competitor go F2P and become even more synonymous with MMO as THE western MMO no. 1. The competition will have to fight hard on the F2P market, just being free and selling fluff won’t be enough – they need to bind and make people buy their stuff. And with every other MMO going F2P, competition will be fierce. While WoW still makes $$$ through the standard subs and occasional pony sales.

Your ideas are well beyond the WoW philosophy, too radical, too new. And maybe the behemoth Blizzard has gotten “old and Activision”… basically, I doubt the company is the same quality company that became part of pop culture they were in the beginning. Now they are a cash cow, still making cash, but growth is getting slower, and maybe numbers will drop one day. They still seem to be far from that.

I also speculate they reserve the F2P model for WoW once the “secret new MMO” comes along, or for that game.

Klep, I’ve argued several times that I’d pay fair money for an offline Old WoW. I’ve internally pegged my price at whatever Guild Wars is selling for at the moment. 😉

Longasc,
“I doubt the company is the same quality company that became part of pop culture they were in the beginning”

Indeed. Y’know, I’m not really a Blizzard fanboy, they are just a good one to pick on when looking at business and design because they are used by many as a measuring stick. It’s easier to discuss something when the terms of discussion are relatively well-known.

I think I’ve got WoW out of my system, though. I’m ready to dig into some other game design. When I wheel back to MMO stuff, I’ll be more in the theoretical MMO mood again (which is more fun anyway). There’s just something satisfying about the creative mode. 🙂

We discussed the 15 buck sub multiple times over the years Tesh, but I think one point is worth repeating.

Blizzard doesn’t keep the sub model because it is the most profitable – they keep it because it acts as a market inhibitor for competitors. It’s simple math. By having a stranglehold on the 1 sub the majority of the market will spend, it ensures other companies can’t make competitive products of the same scale.

Look at their sparkle pony cash shop test. There was a lineup of 140,000 people to buy that at the blizz store when it first went purchasable – at $25 for one non unique, fluff item.

They know they can do it, and probably will at some point – probably when their new MMO launches. They’ll keep a sub in the new game, strangleholding the market still, and milk WoW with a cash shop.

Oh, sure, Isey, but my larger point isn’t so much to jettison the sub, though I’d like that, it’s that they have a fine opportunity to corner a piece of the market that they aren’t even *in* yet. Remember, I’m not saying convert the whole game, just split it in two, keeping the subs on “live”, and letting the old world be a sort of extended trial. Maybe the new SKU operates at a loss (though I honestly doubt it would), but again, it’s about market share and controlling the market. They could do it.

Why would people upgrade though? I mean, current F2P games have to force you to pay money by frequent immersion breaking ads, grindy game mechanics, frequent releases of powerful or attractive content better than what you normally get, and borderline unethical moves like casino roulette style random item purchases. How would Vanilla WoW force the player to play?

Because Cataclysm is where they’d make their money. An extended trial only works if people commit to the paying game.

That’s the thing. Sell it as a Guild Wars box; they seem to have made a bit of money. You don’t have to keep monetizing those players; you’ve already made your money. The impetus to upgrade is to play past level 60, or anything in BC, Wrath or CAT, exactly the way GW enticed users to buy their expansions.

Maybe impose some other limits, say, smaller guilds or banks or something. Point being, you’re *not* monetizing those players past the box sale, unless you get them to sub into the “live” world.

That’s a selling point, and the whole point of this exercise; to corner the GW/F2P market (no recurring fees to play) while still keeping the live game subscription for those who want to keep playing on the cutting edge.

Yeah but that’s less money. As it is now you buy the box and sub, and people seem happy with it. I mean, no offense, but if you can afford a computer to run cataclysm and broadband, an additional 15 bucks a month isn’t a hardship.

However a lot of players are okay with paying less. They’d max out what they can do in vanilla like they farm turbine points in DDO and LOTRO, or just downgrade paid characters to free in CO. That’s in addition to the majority who would never spend a dime past the box anyways, and many people who would skip WoW for a game with a free client.

Look at Global Agenda, it went that route. It hasn’t cornered the MMOFPS market over games like wolfteam or combat arms.