Lets review the CWS group play. The CWS plays just one or two games a day; a far cry from the first weekend, where 64 teams played hundreds of games over the course of a long weekend. So this post has been written in one or two sentence increments for a week and a half…

My pre-CWS predictions were LSU from the top and TCU from the bottom. My predictions weren’t looking too hot after the first day, but ended up being half right. Read on.

In the opening games, Oregon State overcame a bad outing from Jake Thompson, rallying to top Cal-State Fullerton 6-5. Meanwhile, LSU similarly overcame a bad outing from its ace Alex Lange, getting a shutdown relief effort from #2 starter Jared Poche and the one-out close-out from Virginia native Zach Hess to beat Florida State 5-4.

In the first elimination game, Florida State took advantage of 8 CS-F walks to win 6-4 and eliminate the Titans.

In the winner’s bracket game, Oregon State made a pretty large statement by destroying LSU 13-1. OSU’s Bryan Fehmel totally baffled LSU for 8 innings, giving up just 1 run on 2 hits (the run was on a very large homer in the 8th inning when the game was well in hand). LSU’s staff walked *twelve* batters and never had a chance.

In the play-in game to the group final, LSU’s Poche came back on short rest and dominated FSU for 8 innings, giving up just one unearned run. After back-to-back crushed homers to open the 9th, Lynchburg’s Hess came on and just blew away three hitters to close out the game with 95-96 heat and a fantastic curve. LSU moves on.

In the group final, OSU could do nothing with LSU’s ace Lange, who gave up just two hits through 7 and a third; then super closer Hess came on and struck out 4 of the 5 guys he faced to force a winner-take-all game to close out the group. Its only fitting. I’m not the only one gushing over Hess; the CWS broadcasters spent a full inning talking about him … in the TCU/Florida game. In the winner take all game on 6/24/17, LSU got to OSU’s starter early, their own starter was fantastic (mid-week starter Caleb Gilbert gave up just 2 hits through 7 and change before handing the ball over to Hess once again. LSUcomes back through the loser’s bracket to advance. Its hard not to say that the loss of OSU’s ace Luke Heimlich didn’t affect the outcome of this CWS: I have no issues saying that LSU would have been much harder pressed to overcome OSU two days in a row if they had to face a guy with a 0.76 ERA on the season.

In the opening games, Louisville overcame a bad start from its #1 draft pick Brendan McCay to bash their way to victory over TAMU 8-4. In the nightcap, Florida rode a fantastic outing from its 1st rounder Alex Faedo, who shut down TCU on 2 hits over 7 innings for a 3-0 victory, severely dampening TCU’s chances and my predictions.

In the first elimination game, TCU got a stellar start from Brian Howard (12ks in 7 innings) and eliminated TAMU 4-1.

In the winner’s bracket game, Florida got a dominant start from its #2 starter (and likely 2018 early 1st rounder Brady Singer), who gave up just one run in 7 innings and Florida eased by Louisville 5-1.

In the play-in game to the group final, two of the best teams all year in Louisville and TCU met in a loser-goes-home game. TCU got 4 runs early on Louisville’s #3 starter and their freshman ace Nick Lodolo combined forces with Sean Wymer to make it stick.

In the group final, TCU broke out against Florida’s bullpen and won a laugher 9-2 to force the winner-take-all game. Again, only fitting given the talent that is in this CWS. However, in the final game, Florida’s Faedo shut down TCU and Florida got just enough against TCU’s Jared Janczak to advance. Floridato the CWS final.

LSU’s missing their #2 starter (Eric Walker), who left the 2nd game of the CWS early and has not returned. This puts them in a bind, having to use both Lange and Gilbert on short rest. If Walker could return, they’d likely go Poche-Walker-Lange in that order. But, Gilbert was awesome in the OSU elimination game, so its not a big step down. Meanwhile, Florida burned Faedo to get to the final, and they may struggle to cobble together enough pitching to last the final. Singer is ready to go game one and will be a tough out, but Kower isn’t going to slow LSU’s bats, so it may come down to how far they push Faedo on 3 days rest and after throwing a 113 pitch gem in the group final.

These teams met in March at Florida, with the Gators winning Faedo and Singer’s starts before LSU battering Kower to take the Sunday finale. I see the same pattern here: I think Singer shuts down LSU in game one, Lange does likewise in game 2 while LSU batters Kower again, leading to a distinct pitching advantage in game three.

TCU Baseball is pre-season #1 team in the land. My father in law (a TCU alum) would be proud.

I know pitchers and catchers just reported … but its also the kick off of the Collegiate Baseball Season. And I like following college baseball; after all, its where the Nats get all of their draft picks!

The first games of the new season start on 2/17/17. Here’s a quick post to publish some links of interest and high light some local teams as we kick off the new season.

So, why is TCU #1 across the board? Because they return practically everyone from last year’s team, which made the CWS, and they add to it a good recruiting class that includes the highest 2016 draftee not to sign in Nick Lodolo. They have a pre-season All-American starter in Brian Howard and an early easy pick for player of the year in Luken Baker, who took the sport by storm last year as a freshman, hitting .379 and destroying pitching in the post-season.

Florida is in everyone’s top 5 thanks to their pitching depth and high-end talent (despite multiple 1st rounders drafted off of last year’s team they return another weekend starter who is in talks to go 1-1 overall in Alex Faedo. LSU, Florida State and South Carolina return their typical strong teams.

There’s a ton of teams in the Carolinas getting top 25 attention. This should make the ACC and SEC league play as interesting as always. Locally UVA and UMD getting back of the rankings recognition, though I suspect both teams may struggle to keep up with the level of play they’ve established over the last few years in the face of better competition south.

Pre-Season All-America Lists with Local players noted: (i’ll backfill those that havn’t published as of the publication of this initially)

I’ve highlighted mostly players with DC/MV/VA ties here but its worth noting there are several big-time names on every one of these lists. When we do the draft previews you’ll see all the big names for the 2017 draft who are also at the top of these pre-season all-american lists: Jeren Kendall, Brendan McKay, Alex Faedo, Alex Lange, Kyle Wright primarily. However there’s two sophomores who may be set to go 1-2 already in the 2018 draft: Seth Beer and Luken Baker. Both had monster freshman years at the plate and should both be in the mix for the College player of the year in 2017.

Major College Site Index/Home pages; landing/jump pages for coverage at the major sites covering the game.

UVA: at the Citadel tournament in Charleston, SC, playing Liberty, The Citadel and Kansas. A UVA-buddy of mine sent me this link where UVA set their weekend rotation: it looks to me like they’re playing match-ups because I can’t imagine a pre-season All-American like Haseley being their #3 starter.

Desmond was one of just three draft-pick compensation penalties of the FA signing period this year. Photo Drew Kinback/Natsnq.com

When Mark Trumbo sulked back to Baltimore to take his massively under-market deal, he became the last Qualifying Offer (QO) -attached player to sign, meaning the 2017 draft order is now finalized.

This year, only three 1st round picks were forfeited due to QO-attached players:

Colorado’s 11th overall, forfeited inexplicably to sign Ian Desmond to a 5yr/$70M deal purportedly to play a position (1B) he’s never played before in a market that already had an abundance of 1B-only sluggers.

St. Louis’s 19th overall, forfeited to sign the long-rumored Dexter Fowler to man CF for them for the next 5 years.

Cleveland’s 27th overall, forfeited to sign slugger Edwin Encarnation and drastically improve upon the team that made it into extra innings in the 7th game of the World Series despite missing two of their three best starters in the playoffs.

This year’s signing period stands in stark comparison to 2016’s, when teams gave up no less than seven first round picks (and 11 overall) to sign players. A weaker class, a larger number of teams already punting on the new season, plus knowledge that the new CBA lowers the draft-pick penalty may have had teams stay on the sidelines this off-season.

So, all that being said, here’s the new updated draft order for this June’s draft. Here’s the first round and supplemental picks:

Orig First Round

Updated First Round

Team

Notes

1

1

1. Twins (59-103, .364)

2

2

2. Reds (68-94, .420)

3

3

3. Padres (68-94, .420)

4

4

4. Rays (68-94, .420)

5

5

5. Braves (68-93, .422)

6

6

6. A's (69-93, .426)

7

7

7. D-backs (69-93, .426)

8

8

8. Phillies (71-91, .438)

9

9

9. Brewers (73-89, .451)

10

10

10. Angels (74-88, .457)

11

11. Rockies (75-87, .463)

Forfeited to sign Ian Desmond

12

11

12. White Sox (78-84, .481)

13

12

13. Pirates (78-83, .484)

14

13

14. Marlins (79-82, .491)

15

14

15. Royals (81-81, .500)

16

15

16. Astros (84-78, .519)

17

16

17. Yankees (84-78, .519)

18

17

18. Mariners (86-76, .531)

19

19. Cardinals (86-76, .531)

Forfeited to sign Dexter Fowler

20

18

20. Tigers (86-75, .534)

21

19

21. Giants (87-75, .537)

22

20

22. Mets (87-75, .537)

23

21

23. Orioles (89-73, .549)

24

22

24. Blue Jays (89-73, .549)

25

23

25. Dodgers (91-71, .562)

26

24

26. Red Sox (93-69, .574)

27

27. Indians (94-67, .584)

Forfeited to sign Edwin Encarnacion

28

25

28. Nationals (95-67, .586)

29

26

29. Rangers (95-67, .586)

30

27

30. Cubs (103-58, .640)

Potential QO Compensation Round

31. Jeremy Hellickson, Phillies

Took QO: draft pick compensation cancelled

32. Yoenis Cespedes, Mets

Re-signed with Mets: draft pick compensation cancelled

33. Neil Walker, Mets

Took QO: draft pick compensation cancelled

34. Mark Trumbo, Orioles

Resigned with Orioles, draft pick compensation cancelled

35. Jose Bautista, Blue Jays

Re-signed with toronto, draft pick compensation cancelled

28

36. Edwin Encarnacion, Blue Jays

Toronto gets pick

37. Kenley Jansen, Dodgers

Re-signed with Dodgers, draft pick compensation cancelled

38. Justin Turner, Dodgers

Re-signed with Dodgers, draft pick compensation cancelled

29

39. Ian Desmond, Rangers

Rangers get Pick

30

40. Dexter Fowler, Cubs

Cubs get pick

Competitive Balance Round A

31

Tampa Bay

32

Cincinnati

33

Oakland

34

Milwaukee

35

Minnesota

36

Miami

Note: i’ll do a separate post about the QO-attached players and their disposition, an annual tradition, later on. Just three of the original 10 QO-issued players left their teams this year. The last 6 picks are the Competitive Balance picks, which are annually a joke; Miami plays in a $2.4B stadium, Oakland resides in the 11th largest market in the country.

Here’s the 2nd round and supplementals:

Second Round

37

1. Twins (59-103, .364)

38

2. Reds (68-94, .420)

39

3. Padres (68-94, .420)

40

4. Rays (68-94, .420)

41

5. Braves (68-93, .422)

42

Pittsburgh (2016 compensation)

Note: #42 pick == Pittsburgh for not siging #41st pick last year; insert when all is said and done.

43

6. A's (69-93, .426)

44

7. D-backs (69-93, .426)

45

8. Phillies (71-91, .438)

46

9. Brewers (73-89, .451)

47

10. Angels (74-88, .457)

48

11. Rockies (75-87, .463)

49

12. White Sox (78-84, .481)

50

13. Pirates (78-83, .484)

51

14. Marlins (79-82, .491)

52

15. Royals (81-81, .500)

53

16. Astros (84-78, .519)

54

17. Yankees (84-78, .519)

55

18. Mariners (86-76, .531)

56

19. Cardinals (86-76, .531)

57

20. Tigers (86-75, .534)

58

21. Giants (87-75, .537)

59

22. Mets (87-75, .537)

60

23. Orioles (89-73, .549)

61

24. Blue Jays (89-73, .549)

62

25. Dodgers (91-71, .562)

63

26. Red Sox (93-69, .574)

64

27. Indians (94-67, .584)

65

28. Nationals (95-67, .586)

66

29. Rangers (95-67, .586)

67

30. Cubs (103-58, .640)

Competitive Balance Round B

68

Arizona

69

San Diego

70

Colorado

71

Cleveland

72

Kansas City

73

Pittsburgh

74

Baltimore

75

St. Louis

Only one change in the 2nd round this year; Pittsburgh gets the 42nd pick for failing to sign its 41st overall pick last year (LHP Nick Lodolo, who is now pitching for TCU and makes TCU a very strong team for one who just made the CWS).

Lastly, here’s round three and onwards: just add 30 to each of the draft slots to get the rest of the overall picks:

3rd Round

76

1. Twins (59-103, .364)

77

2. Reds (68-94, .420)

78

3. Padres (68-94, .420)

79

4. Rays (68-94, .420)

80

5. Braves (68-93, .422)

81

6. A's (69-93, .426)

82

7. D-backs (69-93, .426)

83

8. Phillies (71-91, .438)

84

9. Brewers (73-89, .451)

85

10. Angels (74-88, .457)

86

11. Rockies (75-87, .463)

87

12. White Sox (78-84, .481)

88

13. Pirates (78-83, .484)

89

14. Marlins (79-82, .491)

90

15. Royals (81-81, .500)

91

16. Astros (84-78, .519)

92

17. Yankees (84-78, .519)

93

18. Mariners (86-76, .531)

94

19. Cardinals (86-76, .531)

95

20. Tigers (86-75, .534)

96

21. Giants (87-75, .537)

97

22. Mets (87-75, .537)

98

23. Orioles (89-73, .549)

99

24. Blue Jays (89-73, .549)

100

25. Dodgers (91-71, .562)

101

26. Red Sox (93-69, .574)

102

27. Indians (94-67, .584)

103

28. Nationals (95-67, .586)

104

29. Rangers (95-67, .586)

105

30. Cubs (103-58, .640)

Some overall draft thoughts:

Pittsburgh will have the 12th, 42nd, 50th and 73rd picks in the first two rounds.

Interestingly, the three teams that gave up 1st rounders all have supplemental 2nd round picks, probably factoring into their willingness to give up the 1st rounder.

The three teams that picked up extra 1st round picks (Toronto, Texas, Chicago) are all 2016 playoff teams. I think the impact of the QO draft pick compensation system is now so far away from what it intended that it borders on the ridiculous.

Minnesota picks 1st, 35th, 37th and 76th. It’ll be interesting to see what they do with the 1st overall pick, whether they go the safe route and pick someone like Jeren Kendall from Vanderbilt or whether they take one of the huge upside prep players near the top of draft boards right now (Hunter Greene or Jordan Adell). Its pretty early for draft coverage though; check back in a few months for this.

Despite winning the world series, the Cubs will pick 27th, 30th and then 67th. Three picks in the top 70 for the WS champion; the rich get richer.

Post-publishing note: MLB handed down the punishment in the hacking scandal and it costs St. Louis their first two picks; they now go to Houston. This changes the above draft order by giving St. Louis’ 56th and 75th pick to Houston. So Houston now owns the #15, #53, #56, #75 and 91st overall picks in this draft while St. Louis does not draft until the 3rd round, #94 overall.

Lastly, lets talk about the impact for the Nats and their 2017 draft:

We moved up three spots in the 1st round; now we pick 25th overall.

We then pick 65th and 103th.

After that, we pick 133rd and in 30 pick increments afterwards. So 163rd, 193rd, 223rd, etc.