Weiss Research's Emergency Q&A – Part 2

Martin D. Weiss, Ph.D. | Monday, October 27, 2008 at 7:30 am

Your money is in grave danger, but you can get it to safety.

The value of your home, your stocks, your 401k, even your supposedly “safe” investments could fall dramatically, but you can still avoid most of those losses. It could all happen very quickly, but it’s not too late to take action now.

Beware: Among all the economic surprises ahead, the one that’s likely to be the most shocking of all is the speed of change.

Unlike the 1930s depression, which dragged out for a decade and ended in war, the depression I foresee could strike like lightning and, if managed wisely, end swiftly without major global conflict. But don’t count on it being any less severe or traumatic financially.

All across the globe, speculative booms have already busted — in housing, commercial real estate, equities, commodities, emerging markets and, above all, debts. In response, the governments of the richest countries have embarked on the most ambitious rescue operations of all time.

The inescapable reality: Now that the global debt bubble has burst, all the world’s leaders and all their radical new measures can’t put it back together again.

Governments cannot turn back the clock or reverse decades of financial sins. They cannot repeal the law of gravity or prevent investors from selling.

Even as they sweep piles of bad debts under the carpet with bailouts and buyouts, mountains of new debts will go bad — another flood of mortgages that can’t be paid, a new raft of credit cards falling behind, an avalanche of companies defaulting on their bonds.

Even as they commit new billions to finance rescues, trillions more in wealth will be wiped out in market declines.

For a while longer, our leaders may try to play their last cards in a herculean effort to stop the fall. They may try to inject more money into bankrupt banks, broken brokerage firms, endangered insurers and any company they deem essential to the economy. They could pump some more resources into the real estate market, the stock market and the foreign currency market.

But it will be a blood transfusion with a failing heartbeat.

Sooner rather than later, our leaders will recognize that it’s impossible to save the entire world. They will see, with their own eyes, that they’re merely throwing good money after bad — that a far wiser path is to accept the inevitability of the decline, seek to manage it proactively and focus on averting violent conflict.

Suppose they’re not that smart? Suppose they don’t see the light? Then the vast global marketplace of millions of investors will force it upon them.

That will mark a critical turning point in history — ultimately for the better. Initially, however, it will open the floodgates to a new, climactic wave of selling, the final phase of the decline.

From that point forward, virtually all asset classes — most stocks, corporate bonds, real estate, foreign currencies and commodities — could lose anywhere from 50% to 90% of their value in a matter of months or even weeks.

The earnings of more than half the companies in the S&P 500 Index could flip from the black to the red. As many as one-fourth could go bankrupt. Up to two out of 10 Americans could lose their jobs. During short periods of financial paralysis, there could be more people out of work or on unpaid furloughs than those on the job.

Except for a fortunate minority of individuals — with foresight and courage — almost all will experience a sharp decline in their income, their net worth and their standard of living.

Today and for every day going forward, I want to do everything possible to help make sure you are a part of that fortunate minority.

That’s why we are now offering a far less expensive trading service — using inverse ETFs instead of options — so that every investor can have an opportunity to achieve protection and wealth in this crisis. (Click here for Mike’s urgent report, just posted to our website yesterday, “Watch out! Crash gaining momentum.”)

That’s also why Mike and I recently held our emergency Q&A session, why I am providing the transcript here today, and why I am giving you a wealth of follow-up information to serve as your immediate guide to safety.

If you missed Part 1 of the transcript, click here. Then, return to continue with Part 2 below …

We pick up the conference with a question from Weiss Research’s Customer Service Department …

Eva Kaplan: This question comes from a Safe Money subscriber, who asks:

Q: “What exactly can I expect if my bank fails? What will the FDIC actually do? How long will I have to wait for my money?”

Mike Larson: The FDIC insurance limit is now $250,000 per Social Security number or tax ID number, per bank. So if you have a spouse or you own a corporation, each of those could have separate accounts at the same bank, and each would be covered up to $250,000. Think of it as a legal way to multiply your insurance coverage. Beyond that, you could open more accounts in other banks.

You ask: What’s the wait time? Right now, there’s virtually no wait on your insured deposits. But you will have to wait for your uninsured deposits, and on those, you could lose maybe half of that money.

Martin Weiss: And if too many banks fail while the FDIC is understaffed, you may have to wait longer.

Moreover, looking at the big picture, the government is making too many promises, some of which they may not be able to keep. I think it’s a pipedream to think that the U.S. government will be able to take care of their own massive obligations and rescue the banks, and save the big brokers, and fund the FDIC, and backstop the short-term borrowing of thousands of corporations, and on top of that, save local and foreign governments.

Promising is one thing. But when they actually get down to the practical business of cutting the checks, they’re going to have to cut back on those commitments — and they’re going to have to do so drastically.

Mike: Which ones?

Martin: No one knows. But there’s one obligation they will not cut back on: Refunding maturing Treasury securities.

Mike: Some people think they can just print money endlessly and effectively default by paying investors back with money that’s nearly worthless, like governments have done in the past. Like was done recently by President Mugabe in Zimbabwe.

Martin: Our government is different because it must get its money from a vast, open market of millions of investors all over the world. But it does not control those investors. And if there’s one thing we know about those investors, it’s that they’re not stupid. They know all about the danger of money printing and what it could do to them. If they see the U.S. government heading down that path, do you think they’re going to continue financing the U.S. government? Heck no! There’s only one way the U.S. government can keep them on board, can continue to count on them for the cash it needs every single day to keep the government running, to meet payroll.

Mike: Which is …

Martin: Avoid wild money printing. And when the going gets tough and money is scarce in a recession or a depression, the government will probably have to abandon some of these bailouts. “We’ve got the money for you,” they’ll say. “You just can’t have it now. You’ve gotta wait.”

Stan Pyatt: This next question is about brokers.

Q: “I’m worried about my brokerage account. Precisely what should I do right now before something serious happens to my brokerage firm … and what should I do after something happens?”

Martin: First of all, make sure your broker continually sweeps any uninvested cash into a money market fund that invests strictly in short-term government securities. Most brokers have one of those funds in-house. If not, tell your broker to put your idle cash in a 13-week (3-month) Treasury bill. He can buy them for you in a Treasury auction or on the secondary market.

Second, the risk of loss in your stocks and bonds is far more immediate than the risk of a brokerage firm failure. So if you haven’t done so already based on our earlier recommendations, you’d better start taking steps to either cut that risk down to practically zero or buy hedges against it, such as inverse ETFs or put options. You want to do that on a rally. It doesn’t have to be a huge rally. As soon as you see it, go in and take action.

Third, make sure you’re doing business with a strong brokerage firm.

Martin: There are two we look at: The first criterion is little or no trading for its own account. The second is plenty of capital.

Mike: The second part of the question is what to do after a broker failed.

Martin: In recent history, this has rarely been a problem for investors. Few brokers failed. And when they did, the authorities immediately found a buyer and transferred the customer accounts. But in this crisis, that could change, so the authorities that step into failed brokerage firms could have a big mess on their hands.

Mike: And then …

Martin: Then, until they can sort it all out, they may have to freeze all accounts, preventing you from selling your securities. Despite the fact that those securities may be falling quickly in value, you might not be allowed to sell them.

Mike: Even if it goes to that extreme, though, you should still have recourse. In that scenario, we recommend you do two things right away: Open a separate account in a stronger firm. Then buy inverse investments to hedge against the losses you might suffer in the account that’s frozen.

Stan: Ever since Reserve Primary Fund got stuck with Lehman Brothers’ commercial paper and broke the buck, we’ve been getting lots of questions about money market funds, such as this one:

Q: “Are money funds as safe as they say they are? Is the insurance that they’re starting to offer really going to work? What’s the scoop there?”

Martin: Let me start by saying this: If you compare the portfolio of most money market funds to the portfolio of most banks, you’ll see a day-and-night difference. The money market funds are, by law, restricted to prime, short-term money market paper. Bank portfolios, meanwhile, are loaded with everything from soup to nuts. They’ve got bad residential and commercial mortgages. They’ve got loans to delinquent consumers and businesses. They’ve got international loans going bad.

So in a money market fund, even if it falls below a $1 per share — breaking the buck — the losses are how much? 1%, 2%, 3%. They could be significantly more in a worst-case scenario, but that will still be a lot less than the 50% losses you already typically see on uninsured deposits in a failed bank.

Mike: I have a question that just came through on my laptop. This person wants to know:

Q: “I have been buying put options and inverse ETFs per the recommendations in your premium services, and as the market has tumbled, I’ve been making a ton of money. Thank you! But I’m worried: What happens if the company fails? How will that affect my ability to collect my profits?”

Martin: Don’t thank me. Thank Mike! Options and inverse ETFs are traded on regulated exchanges and have nothing to do with the companies they’re on. They surge in value when the companies fail. And you sell them on the market, regardless of the fate of the companies.

Eva: A Safe Money subscriber is asking:

Q: “I have my money in my company’s 401k. I thought I had a nice diversified portfolio in conservative mutual funds. But now everything is in the red. Should I take my money out of my 401k and just pay the tax penalties? Suze Orman says I should just hold everything for the long term, keep adding money to my 401k and keep investing it in the stock market funds that my plan offers.”

Martin: I think you — and probably a lot of people — are confusing two separate things. The first and most urgent question is: What investments do you own? The second issue is the kind of account you’re using to buy those investments.

Mike: Why don’t we deal with the investments first?

Martin: Of course. If those investments are going down in value, you’re going to lose money regardless of what kind of account you have them in. And based just on what we’ve seen so far, depending on what investment choices you made, your retirement could be cut half from current levels, or worse. So although I agree with Suze Orman on many things, I disagree with her if she’s saying you should hold the stock mutual funds in your 401k and just keep buying more on the way down. You cannot afford that risk.

Just as soon as this event is over, get ahold of the list of funds your 401k offers. Find the safest fund on the list. And then on any rally in the stock market, shift everything to that fund. Check with your company or your 401k manager, and they’ll give you instructions on exactly how to make that shift.

This is not a permanent solution. Later, when the dust has settled and the coast is clear, you can start shifting back to equities. But at this point, no one knows where the bottom in the market might be. Better to be safe than sorry. (See also “What to Do With Your 401k.”)

Mike: I think everyone would like you to give them a list of what you consider the safest funds.

Martin: The safest possible choice in a 401k would be a Treasury-only money market fund. Unfortunately, I am not aware of any 401k plans offering that choice. So the next best choice is a government-only money market fund, which includes not only short-term Treasuries but also short-term instruments in other government agencies like Ginnie Mae.

If they don’t have that, then the next best choice is a standard money market fund, which hopefully has a pretty big allocation to Treasuries and other government paper as part of its mix of holdings.

Mike: I have a question here from someone who’s reviewing his company’s list of 401k options. But he seems to be confused between money market funds and fixed-income or bond mutual funds. He’s asking if the bond funds are safe or not.

Martin: Why don’t you take that question yourself, Mike?

Mike: Sure. The primary risk of bond funds is to the degree that they put your money in the bonds of weak or failing companies. And with so many big, supposedly strong, companies going under, that’s a larger risk than it’s ever been in our lifetime. The second risk is if interest rates rise. Then, the price on lower-yielding bonds that the fund has in its portfolio will naturally fall. Bottom line: Although they’re usually safer than mutual funds dedicated to stocks, you could also lose money in bond funds.

OK. We’ve covered the investments in the accounts. But we also said we wanted to cover the type of account itself.

Martin: On that level, I do agree with Suze Orman. If it’s a 401k, go ahead and continue investing. Take advantage of your company’s matching program. Take advantage of the fact that your money can grow without the drag of taxes. Just make sure you’re putting your money into the safest choice available.

Mike: What about IRAs and 529 savings accounts for my kids’ education?

Martin: Same thing. Just make sure they’re in the safest investments. If you do nothing else as a result of this event, as soon as you have a rally in the market, contact your broker or your HR department or the administrator and say:

“I do not want to withdraw my money or incur any penalties. I just want you to move my money out of stock investments to safer, cash-type investments like T-bills, a Treasury-only money market fund or the next safest investment available.”

Stan: Charles is asking:

Q: “Can I invest in short-term Treasuries from my IRA?”

Martin: Absolutely.

Mike: Martin, we’re also getting some questions on insurance.

Martin: Just some questions?

Mike: More people seem concerned with their bank accounts than with their insurance policies.

Martin: I think that’s a mistake.

Mike: Why’s that?

Martin: Because the insurance industry doesn’t have an efficient guarantee system. In the early 1990s, several giant life insurers failed: Executive Life of California. Fidelity Bankers Life. First Capital Life. Mutual Benefit Life. And the state guarantee associations choked. They simply didn’t have enough money — or even the ability to raise enough money — to cover all the customers with cash-value policies who got caught in those failed companies.

Mike: So how did they handle it?

Martin: Unfortunately, not very well. The authorities redefined the word “failure” and said that, technically, the insurers really didn’t “fail.” That way, they were able to legally avoid triggering the state guarantee mechanism and, instead, they simply froze the accounts of two million people.

Mike:Two million people?

Martin:Yes, and months later, when they sorted everything out, they offered policyholders a choice: Either accept as little as 50 cents on the dollar … or accept a replacement policy with far inferior yield and terms.

Mike: And you think that can happen again?

Martin: For the companies that fail, yes. For the companies that don’t fail, it’s not an issue, of course. Let me give you a breakdown of which policies can be affected and how, starting from the most vulnerable down to the least vulnerable. There are three general categories of polices.

First, cash value policies — fixed annuities and whole life, sometimes called universal life. These are policies in which you have your savings in the game. Where does your money go? It goes into the insurance company’s own balance sheet. So if their balance sheet goes down, your savings can go down with it.

Second, variable policies — annuities or life. In variable policies, your money does not become part of the insurance company’s portfolio. It goes into separate accounts. Like in a 401k, your money actually goes into mutual funds. And like the 401k, you’re responsible for the investment choices. Check what you have, check their menu of choices and switch to the safest ones.

Mike: The same list of priorities — first choice, second choice, etc.?

Martin: Exactly.

Mike: But suppose the insurance company fails.

Martin: As I said, your money is in separate accounts. In the 1990s, we even saw the failure of a major variable annuity insurer and none of those policies were frozen. Investors could get their money out despite the failure.

Mike: OK. But did they lose money?

Martin: Like in a 401k, that depended on the performance of the mutual fund they chose and the price they paid for its shares. If their fund went up, they made money. If it went down, they lost money.

Mike: And the third type of policy?

Martin: Term policies — term life, health insurance, auto insurance, home insurance, etc. There, your investment risk is greatly reduced because you’re just paying for the insurance. It’s not an investment; your savings are not tied up.

Mike: So as long as I have a variable policy or a term policy, you’re saying I don’t have to worry about the safety of my insurance company.

Martin: No, wait a minute! You’re putting words in my mouth. All insurance policies do have an insurance component. So to make sure your insurance is good, you still need to do business with a strong company.

Q: “I have a whole life policy with $80,000 cash value in it. That $80,000 is taxable if I close out the policy.”

Martin: Cindy, if you’re asking if you should cancel the policy and pay the taxes plus any penalties, my answer is this: Your agent can help you switch your policy to a stronger firm without tax consequences, ideally without other penalties and costs.

Overall, however, whenever you switch, you’ve got to weigh the risks against the costs, and then choose the lesser of the evils.

If your company has a Financial Strength rating of D+ or lower, I think the risk of staying is likely to be greater than cost of leaving.

If it’s rated B+ or higher, stick with it. The cost of canceling is the greater evil.

And if the rating is in the C range, then it’s a toss-up. I’d at least check the rating every three months or so. (For instructions on how to check the rating of your insurer, click here.)

Eva: Cindy’s main question is this:

Q: “What about long-term care policies? I not only don’t trust that I will see this company alive someday if I am still alive in 30+ years … but what really concerns me is the real and total costs for health care if I need the long-term care down the road.”

Martin: Most long-term care policies are not as good as the companies say they are. But if you feel you need long-term care, we have created a free guide to help you avoid the pitfalls and rip-offs. (See Weiss Research’s Step-By-Step Guide to Long-Term Care.)

Eva: What she and others are basically asking is:

Q: “What if my health insurer fails. Can I be denied medical treatment?”

Martin: I hope the state guarantee associations will at least help make sure all health benefits are paid. There’s a difference between losing access to your investments in an insurance company and getting continuing benefits payments. The history has been that the benefits have been paid despite failures. Will that hold up the future? We certainly hope so.

Stan: We have several questions here on credit and credit cards. This reader asks:

Q: “Martin, you’ve always advocated avoiding debts or paying off my debts. Is that what I should be doing now?”

Martin: For the most part, yes! Pay off your credit card as fast as you can. Even before compounding, their rates are astronomical. Also try to get rid of debts with variable rates, especially debts tied to the LIBOR rate. But if you have a fixed mortgage at a relatively decent rate and you don’t have an abundance of liquid savings, just make your regular payments. I’d hate to see you get stuck without cash at a time like this. The more cash you have, the better.

Stan: A question I get often from my friends and neighbors goes something like this:

Q: “Millions of people are skipping out on their mortgage and getting away with it. Why can’t I do the same with mine?”

Mike: No! Tell them not to do that! Instead, they should go to their lender and try to renegotiate terms. As soon as the lender is persuaded that you may default on your mortgage, there’s a good chance they’ll work with you.

Martin: I don’t know how long that’s going to continue. Right now, there’s a culture of laxity about debt in this country. The government, the banks, the politicians — they’re all looking for ways to keep people in their homes, to forgive and forget, to ease them through this crisis. I totally empathize with that. But looking at it objectively, that policy could change and it could change very swiftly. Once the economy is down, once money is really tight, you could see some very tough rules and tough penalties for debtors.

Mike: That’s hard to imagine in America.

Martin: A lot of things that have already happened were also hard to imagine.

Mike: Very true.

Stan: Another question my friends have is this:

Q: “Can lenders suddenly demand full payment even if I’m current with my payments?”

Mike: As a rule, no — not with first mortgages. But they can cut your credit limit on credit cards or home equity lines of credit. And then, if you’re over your limit, that can hit your credit scores, and there’s nothing you can do about it. That’s another reason why you want to pay down your credit cards as soon as possible.

Eva: While you’re on that topic, Martin, please help us with this question:

Q: “Does the new $50 billion insurance plan for money market funds mean all money market funds are now 100% safe? Or could my money market fund still break the buck and actually reduce my principal?”

Martin: Only the money market funds that opt into the insurance program will be insured. But this situation is very fluid, and I recommend you largely ignore that aspect. Focus instead on what kind of paper they’re buying with your money. If they’re buying a lot of commercial paper and that commercial paper is shaky, I’d be concerned even if they have insurance. If they’re buying only Treasuries, I would not be concerned even if they don’t have insurance.

Q: “How can the average person who now is so electronically tied to everything even come close to keeping their money ‘safe’? How can we prevent getting electronically ‘turned off’ or ‘locked out’ of any of our accounts of whatever type?”

Martin: I disagree with the notion that financial breakdowns are somehow correlated to computer breakdowns. In fact, I personally think the Internet and electronic systems are actually one of the great strengths of our economy. Remember, we had massive, nationwide upgrades less than 10 years ago in preparation for Y2K.

Mike: Right. I think the worst that you might see in a panic sell-off is a traffic bottleneck on the Internet. But if you’re trying to sell and you can’t get through because of the traffic or a temporary system crash on your broker’s site, that’s probably not a good time to be selling anyhow. Wait until the market settles down.

Or better yet, wait for a rally in the market. Then sell. I don’t care how bad things get. Even in a crash, no market ever goes straight down. There will be intraday rallies or even month-long rallies, and some of them could be pretty dramatic. That’s when you should do most of your selling. Not when everyone’s in a panic to sell.

Martin: Most people will think that’s the bottom. But it may not be the bottom. That’s why I think you need to err on the side of caution, safety and liquidity.

Thank you, Mike, and thank you, our loyal readers and subscribers, for participating in this event. The days ahead will be tough, far tougher than any defender of Wall Street or Washington will acknowledge.

They will be filled with new challenges you never thought we’d face. Already, trillions of dollars have vanished from the portfolios of retirees; and in the days ahead, trillions more could disappear, leaving many retirees dependent on family members, struggling to survive financially.

For most, this is going to be very painful. But it’s not the end of the world. Our country has been through worse before, and we survived. We will survive this crisis as well.

At a time like this, it pays to pinch every penny until Lincoln cries for mercy. It pays to stay in close touch with the news and to follow every alert we send you. We will get through this crisis — together.

It could be an opportunity not only to survive but to improve your life … not only to help yourself, but also steer your friends and loved ones on a path to safety.

The more we can safeguard our cash reserves now, the more we can build up a nest egg of safe money, the better it will be — not only for you and me, but also for the long-term future of the entire country.

Without those liquid, cash reserves, there may not be a recovery. With them, we can pick up bargains near the bottom, reinvest in America and help play a role in bringing about a new era of growth — hopefully steady, wholesome growth.

No matter how dire things may get, please remember that we will recover. But between now and then, there’s much to be done — not only to get safe, but to stay safe as conditions change … not only to keep what you have, but also to grow your money even in the worst of times.

We will send you our report with all the names you’re looking for. Then, watch your inbox for your daily emails from Money and Markets or from Mike and me, because this conversation has barely begun. There’s a lot more for us to talk about — and a lot more to do.

Thank you again, and above all, stay safe.

Editor’s note: We had many more excellent questions that we couldn’t get to in this 1-hour session. Nor could we give you all the important information we feel you need to cope with this crisis. To help fill that void, we have developed step-by-step instructions on how to find safety in each major area. To download a .pdf file of the entire report, click here. Or if you want to go straight to specific subjects of immediate interest to you, click on the items below.

Money and Markets (MaM) is published by Weiss Research, Inc. and written by Martin D. Weiss along with Tony Sagami, Nilus Mattive, Sean Brodrick, Larry Edelson, Michael Larson and Jack Crooks. To avoid conflicts of interest, Weiss Research and its staff do not hold positions in companies recommended in MaM, nor do we accept any compensation for such recommendations. The comments, graphs, forecasts, and indices published in MaM are based upon data whose accuracy is deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Performance returns cited are derived from our best estimates but must be considered hypothetical in as much as we do not track the actual prices investors pay or receive. Regular contributors and staff include Kristen Adams, Andrea Baumwald, John Burke, Amber Dakar, Dinesh Kalera, Red Morgan, Maryellen Murphy, Jennifer Newman-Amos, Adam Shafer, Julie Trudeau and Leslie Underwood.

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