Jackson is a
fairly young (28), right-handed power arm (averages 94.5 miles per hour on his
fastball) who has been a 3-wins above replacement the previous two seasons and
is now poised to command a multi-year deal which we estimated to be in the ballpark of three
years at $11 million per year. Francis,
on the other hand, is a slightly older (31 in 2012), left-handed soft-tosser
(managed to average just 84.7 miles per hour on his “heater”) who has averaging
2-wins above replacement the past two years and is fortunate if he gets offered
employment for one year.

The likes of
Jeff Francis and Edwin Jackson couldn’t be any further away from each other on
the pitcher spectrum. Jackson is a hard-throwing fastball/slider guy while
Francis is a control-oriented, slow-slower-and-slowest pitcher. Having interest
in the pair is like being at the bar and trying to decide between a shot of
bourbon or a wine cooler. Yet, when you peeled back some of the data, you can
see that these two have a lot of common ground.

The pairs’
fastballs, with an almost ten mile per hour discrepancy between them, could not
elicit a different response. Some people have actually attempt to compare Edwin
Jackson to the legendary Bob Gibson, Jeff Francis’s fastball reminds people
of Debbie Gibson. Still, even with the difference it is amazing that they both
wound up with similar results on the pitch:

Comparing
Fastball Results (2011)

Velocity

%Pitches

Miss%

Well-Hit Avg

Ground Ball%

Edwin Jackson

94.5

55%

10%

.295

44%

Jeff Francis

84.7

53%

11%

.278

48%

MLB Avg

92.0

62%

15%

.248

44%

(via Inside
Edge)

For the most
part, both of the pitchers’ fastballs were below average in all categories. Jackson
clearly had an advantage in the velocity department as his fastball held the fifth-highest
velocity on average in 2010. Meanwhile Francis had the second slowest fastball
in baseball, trailing the Nationals’ Livan Hernandez for that honor. In spite
of having the livelier fastball, it was Francis who was able to get more
batters to miss. Likewise, it was Francis’s ground ball tendencies that put him
slightly better than the norm and thus likely caused his well-hit average to be
twenty points lower in that category than Jackson.

Jackson,
blessed numbers that set radar gun-enthusiasts hearts aflutter, typically just
hurls his fastball to the fat part of the zone. He is a “here-hit-this” type of
pitcher. As it turns out, opponents do hit it. Conversely, not afforded the
same genetics, Francis is forced to work the outer-half and just off the plate
in attempt to coerce the softer contact.

What separates
the two pitchers is their secondary offerings. Jackson is reliant on his slider
while Francis works in a changeup. Jackson’s slider has been able to generate a
high percentage of swing-and-misses (34% miss percentage). Francis favors the
changeup which nets him a swing-and-miss of 23% but a high rate of grounders. It
is because of this that Jackson has been able to strikeout 17.2% of hitters
faced while Francis has been only able to whiff 11.3%.

But
strikeouts don’t tell the entire story. Sure, they are a great predictor of
future success but it does not paint a picture of the complete pitcher.

In 2011, both
Jackson and Francis both shared a WHIP of 1.44 - meaning they averaged roughly the
same amount of base-runners over the season. Jackson had struggled with his
control over his career whereas Francis has actually improved his since his
injury, cutting down his walks in the past two years. Both give up a hefty
number of hits. Because of his down-the-middle approach, Jackson had a much
higher line drive rate as hitters were able to square up more. Francis’s
attempts to incite contact indubitably led to base hits. In the end, Jackson
has been roughly one win above replacement better than Francis (or he provided
his team with $5 million in more “value”) yet he will be able to land a deal
worth three times as much as Francis in both years and dollars.

Current
Free Agent SP WAR (2011)

Name

WAR

C.J. Wilson

5.9

Edwin Jackson

3.8

Mark Buehrle

3.4

Javier Vazquez

3.2

Bartolo Colon

2.9

Jeff Francis

2.6

Roy Oswalt

2.5

Hiroki Kuroda

2.4

Erik Bedard

2.4

Paul Maholm

2.1

Presented
with the option between the two, odds are that the vast majority of fans would
prefer Jackson over Francis eight days a week (I’m certain a quick scroll
through the comments section will validate this). The reality is that likelihood
of landing Jackson, who is one of the top free agents on the market due to a
small pool of starting pitchers and a Scott Boras client, is minimal. As
mentioned above, he stands to collect a decent paycheck for the next few years
which the Twins budget does not appear able to accommodate. And, given the interworking
of his arsenal, I would say that he stands to be overpaid as well.

If you are
looking at it from a purely investment standpoint, for an organization that has
stated it has a $100 million payroll budget, bringing in Francis would make
more sense – giving the team flexibility to address other areas like the
bullpen or an outfielder. Guys like Mark Buehrle and Edwin Jackson are poised
to make northwards of $10 million next year and will provide a small uptick in
value over Francis who will likely make south of $5 million.

Signing
Francis would not be a sexy acquisition in any shape or form. It would be
settling. He has proven capable enough to throw over 180 innings and, even with
an unimpressive repertoire, he has shown that he can almost match Jackson’s
output. With a better defense and a more supportive lineup, Francis has the
potential to post a better season in 2012 than in 2011 – at a reasonable price.

About OtB

"Parker Hageman is the Michael Cuddyer of Twins bloggers -- not the flashiest guy out there, but a solid everyday player. Hageman produces spot-on analysis ... relying on in-depth stats and lots of charts. He takes a sober, performance-based view of players, letting others fall for a player's heart or his leadership skills in the clubhouse. Hageman is one of the four pillars holding up the Star Tribune's TwinsCentric blog."