Looking to 2060: Long term global growth prospect, optimistic forecast for Israel

The OECD issued the “Looking to 2060: Long term global growth prospect: Forecast to 2030” where it predicts, in a macroeconomic forecast, that by 2030 China will pass the U.S. while becoming the world’s largest economy in terms of GDP. In addition, the OECD expects an average growth of 3% in the global economy in the next 50 years.

According to the projection, by 2030 the Chinese economy’s share of global GDP will increase by more than 50% from 17% today to a rate of 27.9%, while the share of the U.S. economy will decline to 17.8%, compared to 22.7% today. The Eurozone is expected to shrink while taking a share of 11.7% of the world GDP in 2030, compared to 17.1% today

As for the Israeli economy, the OECD forecast is optimistic as it anticipates an average growth of 2.7% by 2030, compared with an average of 2.3% in OECD countries. Similar growth rate of 2.6% is expected to continue in the years 2030 to 2060, compared with 1.7% in OECD countries.

In less than two decades the global economic balance will also shift between the bloc division of OECD countries , compared with the 8 largest emerging economies that are not OECD members. In 2030, 34 developed countries members of the OECD would lose a significant portion of their share of global GDP, which would result in 49%, compared to 64.7% today, while the share of other countries will grow to 51%, compared to 35.3% today.

The outlook for 2060 illustrates the massive growth of India, alongside to the continued shrinking of the Eurozone. From 2030 to -2060 India’s share in global economy will increase by 70% to a percentage of 18.2%, while China will stagnate with the same proportion as it is expected to have in 2030.

The Eurozone share in 2060 will decrease to 8.8% of the global economy – which represent half of its present share. The United States will continue to decline, but it will be more moderate and amount to less than 10% decrease of an estimated 16.3% share.

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