WxGuy1 wrote:It'll prob be borderline Cat 2/3 IMO. The overall area of cold cloud tops is shrinking, and it'll be on shore in not too long. In fact, Beta looks considerably worse on satellite now than she did a couple hours ago. Beta appears to be moving WSW, south of the NHC forecast track. Certainly a very serious rainfall threat, since the wind threat will be localized owing to the very small wind field (hurricane-force winds only extend out 15 miles from the eye). This is why we don't take the LBAR or NHCA98E "models" seriously most of the time. The majority of the dynamical models and the NHC hit this forecast quite well.

You kiddin' me? Beta is contracting and strengthening, eye is clearing out. This certainly won't be Wilma 2, but still, a very formidable and impressive hurricane to say the least.

No, I wasn't kidding you. Beta briefly got to 100kts, then weakened back down to 90kts. Sounds like borderline Cat 2/3 to me... The NHC discussion mentioned similar things I did... I don't imagine many folks thought the winds were going to be the big deal out of Beta, given her very small wind field.

WxGuy1 wrote:It'll prob be borderline Cat 2/3 IMO. The overall area of cold cloud tops is shrinking, and it'll be on shore in not too long. In fact, Beta looks considerably worse on satellite now than she did a couple hours ago. Beta appears to be moving WSW, south of the NHC forecast track. Certainly a very serious rainfall threat, since the wind threat will be localized owing to the very small wind field (hurricane-force winds only extend out 15 miles from the eye). This is why we don't take the LBAR or NHCA98E "models" seriously most of the time. The majority of the dynamical models and the NHC hit this forecast quite well.

You kiddin' me? Beta is contracting and strengthening, eye is clearing out. This certainly won't be Wilma 2, but still, a very formidable and impressive hurricane to say the least.

No, I wasn't kidding you. Beta briefly got to 100kts, then weakened back down to 90kts. Sounds like borderline Cat 2/3 to me... The NHC discussion mentioned similar things I did... I don't imagine many folks thought the winds were going to be the big deal out of Beta, given her very small wind field.

Good observation WxGuy1 and I credit you for seeing that before I did. When I made this post the eye was indeed rapidly clearing out and I thought it was strengthening, but the next frame indicated that the eye was indeed filling back in.

CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES WERE RAPIDLY WARMING IN THE HOURS JUST BEFORE
BETA MADE LANDFALL NEAR 12Z THIS MORNING. THE LANDFALL INTENSITY
ESTIMATE WAS 90 KT...OR CATEGORY TWO...BASED ON A DATA-T DVORAK
NUMBER OF 5.0 FROM TAFB AT 1115Z. GIVEN THE SMALL SIZE OF THE
HURRICANE...BETA SHOULD WEAKEN VERY RAPIDLY AS IT MOVES FARTHER
INLAND...AND THE CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE DURING THE 24
HOURS OR SO IT WILL SPEND OVER LAND. HOWEVER...IN THE UNLIKELYEVENT THAT BETA REMAINS A TROPICAL CYCLONE THROUGHOUT ITS OVERLANDPASSAGE...IT WOULD RETAIN ITS NAME IN THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC
BASIN.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 235/6. BETA HAS MOVED PAST A WEAKNESS IN
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...AND SHOULD CONTINUE ON A GENERAL
WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY TRACK ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF
MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE OVER MEXICO UNTIL IT DISSIPATES.

EVEN THOUGH BETA IS WEAKENING...THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAINS WILL
CONTINUE OVER NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND
THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
MUD SLIDES.

BETA CONTINUES TO PUSH FARTHER INLAND WITH AN INITIAL MOTION
ESTIMATED TO BE 260/6. LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGING TO THE NORTHWEST
OF BETA SHOULD KEEP THE CYCLONE ON A PATH A LITTLE SOUTH OF WEST
UNTIL THE CIRCULATION DISSIPATES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WESTERN
NICARAGUA. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THERE COULD BE SOME REGENERATIONAFTER THE REMNANTS OF BETA ENTER THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC BASINTOMORROW.

EVEN THOUGH BETA IS WEAKENING...THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAINS WILL
CONTINUE OVER NICARAGUA...HONDURAS...AND EL SALVADOR FOR THE NEXT
DAY OR SO...AND THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.