A high amplitude ridge in the Jet Stream is forecast to develop atop the Yamal region of Russia, expand northward over the Kara and Laptev seas, inject a plume of anomalously warm air over the polar region, and then proceed on along the Arctic Ocean shores of Siberia. Beneath this ridge, temperatures over the Arctic Ocean will spike to +1 to +4 C above average while temperatures over land will hit extreme +20 C and higher anomalies.

(Arctic heatwave invades Siberia in the GFS forecast for later this week as depicted by Climate Reanalyzer.)

Arctic Ocean zones are forecast to see temperatures climb above freezing for much of the 80 degree North Latitude zone. Over Siberia, land-based temperatures are predicted to range from the 40s and 50s along the Arctic Ocean boundary and climb to the 60s to 80s in regions just inland.

As temperatures tend to flatten out over Arctic Ocean waters and as permafrost zones in Siberia are used to far cooler readings during Northern Hemisphere Summer, the predicted heatwave is likely to have some rather strong impacts should it emerge. Most notably, snow cover over remaining land and sea ice is expected to see a rather extreme reduction over the next seven days. In other words, GFS forecast models show Northern Hemisphere snow cover basically getting crushed:

Sparse remaining snow cover in Northeast Siberia along the East Siberian Arctic Shelf coastal zone is expected to be pretty much wiped out. One foot average snow cover along the shores of the Laptev and Kara seas is also expected to melt. And a broad section of remaining snow upon the sea ice is predicted to retreat away from the North Polar region — receding back toward the final haven near Greenland.

Snow is important for spring and summer-time Arctic temperature moderation due to the fact that it provides insulation to sea ice and permafrost as well as serving as a reflective, high-albedo surface that bounces back some of the incoming heat from the 24-hour seasonal Arctic sun. Snow melt, on the other hand, serves to form albedo-reducing melt ponds over the Arctic Ocean sea ice during summer. A critical factor in late season melt forecasting in which more June melt ponds tend to mean lower sea ice totals by end season. In addition, snow melt fills permafrost zone rivers with above-freezing waters that then flow into the Arctic Ocean — providing yet another heat forcing to the sea ice.

Conditions in Context

This weekly trend and forecast is consistent with an ongoing tendency during 2015 for strong ridge formation and warm air slot development over both Alaska and the Yamal region of Russia. The high amplitude ridges also likely have teleconnections with larger weather patterns such as El Nino in the Pacific, the warm water pool (hot blob) in the Northeast Pacific, and record low sea ice extents continuing for most of Northern Hemisphere Spring. Observations that are also consistent with the predictions made by Dr. Jennifer Francis that are a direct upshot of polar amplification set off by human-caused warming of the global climate system.

(GFS model forecast as depicted by Earth Nullschool showing ridge Northwest Territory, trough Greenland and North Atlantic, ridge Kara and Laptev region of Siberia. A dynamic that may be the result of teleconnections set off by factors related to human-caused climate change. Image source: Earth Nullschool.)

It’s worth noting that many of these factors are self reinforcing. For example, more sea ice melt results in higher amplitude wave formation in the Jet Stream. Higher amplitude wave formation in the Jet Stream transports more warmth to the Arctic environment, resulting in more sea ice and snow melt which in turn weakens the Jet Stream further. A longer-term amplifying feedback of Arctic carbon release may also be in play (hinted at by an overburden of both CO2 and methane in the local Arctic atmosphere), which would also contribute to the conditions we now observe.

A final feedback, this one somewhat negative, occurs as a result of Greenland Ice Sheet (GIS) melt. Large cold, freshwater outflows from GIS into the North Atlantic result in localized cooling in that region. This feedback (also related to AMO weakening) enhances trough formation throughout the North Atlantic region adjacent to Greenland and the Canadian Archipelago. A final potential teleconnection to the ridges we see forming over both Yamal and the Alaska/Northwest Territory zone.

Forecast still needs to bear out. Storm on the way as well. My opinion has been that storms can pull more warm air into the Arctic. The models agree in the forecast. However, we’ll have to wait to see if that prediction bears out.

Bill H

Robert, Another negative feedback of the melting of the Greenland ice sheet is that this produces a layer of fresh water on top of the salt water of the arctic ocean (fresh water is less dense than salt water). Since fresh water has a higher freezing point it will freeze more readily. Overall effect: arctic sea ice extent may actually increase, as has been seen in the antarctic as the continental ice has flowed into the sea.

Well aware of the freshwater wedge feedback. Been writing about it for three years now. And it’s likely one reason we have temporary sea ice expansion in the Southern Hemisphere. The issue with the Northern Hemisphere is that you have a much stronger amplifying feedback from all the albedo loss and carbon store response. So you need a much stronger melt pulse from Greenland to get sea ice growth. Most likely what we see is sea ice retreating toward a haven near Greenland and possibly some expansion into the North Atlantic at the cost of sea ice for the broader Arctic Ocean in the nearer term.

It’s also worth noting that we already have large scale fresh water expansion in the Arctic Ocean proper due to increased river outflow.

So yes, if we have a blue ocean event and this pushes the GIS to hard and fast melt then we may see a pseudo recovery of sea ice as a kind of bounce-back. And in a very bad Greenland melt case where we see 1 meter of sea level contribution from the GIS by mid century, we may see a multi-decadal recovery. But this is in the context of overall long term Arctic and global warming.

This is phase II climate change where equatorial warming and storm formation really start ramping up with high latitudinal T deltas and crazy storm track amplification. Storms of my Grandchildren scenario — something we want to try to avoid like the plague that it is.

Last piece, but a big one to consider. Fresh water outflow from Greenland takes surface heat and transports it to deeper levels in the world ocean system. This is not cooling so much as reshuffling the heat deck. And an ocean with a hot bottom is a dead ocean. So no good news spin there.

Since fresh water has a higher freezing point it will freeze more readily. Overall effect: arctic sea ice extent may actually increase, as has been seen in the antarctic as the continental ice has flowed into the sea.

The NSIDC suggests that a slightly higher freezing point has a negligible role and other mechanisms are in play.

Please see:

Leading ideas regarding the long-term upward trend as assessed over the thirty-five-year satellite record are: (1) persistent changes in wind patterns, resulting from increased westerly winds, which have changed both how much ice is formed and how it is moved around after formation (Holland and Kwok, 2012); and (2) that meltwater from the underside of deep floating ice shelves surrounding the continent (greater than 350 meters, or 1,150 feet thick) has risen to the surface and contributed to a slight freshening of the surface ocean layer (Bintanja et al., 2012). The extra melting results from the changing wind patterns, which act to draw deep warm ocean water inward to the continent to replace surface water and sea ice that is pushed outward and eastward by the stronger westerlies. By thickening, spreading, and stabilizing the polar surface ocean layer (which is comprised of cool, near-freezing water) the increased melt from the ice sheet edges helps sea ice grow around the Antarctic continent.

climatehawk1

KTraugh2

All benefits gained from negative GIS feedbacks are lost when you account for sea level contribution and enhanced storminess/erosion. This process is discussed in Storms of my Grandchildren by James Hansen.

danabanana

This is a posting I did on a known media outlet. My bit is after the quote:

——————————–
In response to SteB1

“A relatively small proportion of the population is scientifically literate. A very small proportion of the scientifically literate have a good grasp of environmental science and scientific ecology. And a very small proportion of these have a fairly good overview. The reason climate change is not seen as an urgent and dire problem, is not because it isn’t a massive problem. It is simply because of a lack of insight or knowledge. ”

That is indeed the real problem. It doesn’t help that we live in a society overloaded with so many distractions and banal information.

Only yesterday I decided to get a copy of Storms of My Grandchildren so I visited a well known high street bookstore. As I browsed through the popular science section I noticed that there was only a small shelf for literature about Climate Change. I couldn’t find the book but I did find multiple copies of various books by James Lovelock and also a dozen copies of Global Warming and Other Bollocks by Stanley Feldman. I went to the desk to ask about James Hansen’s book and they told me that had to be ordered for me from their warehouse. I questioned the salesman as why were there copies of the books mentioned above and not a single copy of Hansen’s and the reply was simply ‘because those books sell more’. It gave me an insight on the level of ignorance that exists out there as well as the pessimistic thought that we are truly done for. When the public chose to buy books on pseudo-science and shun one of the most accurate forecasters of AGW you know we are a long way from accomplishing any significant changes.

I was looking at the 500mb baroclinic polar projection the other day and saw this ridge and the one over AK developing, looking for a third for a stable pattern. Looking today, this weird blob looks like two rex blocks will set up, not sure how many times I’ve seen that sort of pattern before at this time of year…anyway, these unusual patterns are becoming more….usual. Not sure I’m comfortable with that.

DonnaLou

I’ve been following your blog for a few years now, Robert. But this is my first comment. Can you please define the type of storms we may be looking at in the future? I live in urban Kentucky and plan to build a small house, or perhaps a monolithic dome, on the outskirts of the county next year. I have no idea of what to prepare for…not that anyone does. Or should I just move closer to Mammoth Cave?

If we get the kind of high T deltas Hansen talks about, if we get the ‘continent sized frontal storms packing the strength of Hurricanes,’ then you may just want to consider moving closer to Mammoth. The kinds of storms we could see in second phase climate change are just tremendous. It’s the pace of change that really makes the potential systems look so out-sized. Lots of cool in one place, lots of hot in another. Ice sheets going down and pushing some amazing instability.

Andy in San Diego

It has looked all spring long like a low snow pack situation. This will reduce land based albedo, reduce ground moisture, increase spring/summer temperatures. Heat will soak into the permafrost deeper.

OT: anyone find a verification on that crazy forecast calling for 65 C temps in Saudi Arabia by mid June? Just one unverified report from a Saudi climatologist that has rippled through the web. The model runs I’m looking at show 50 C peaks in the 7 day timeframe. Needless to say 65 C would be an all-time global record and likely result in some serious trouble for the Kingdom.

Eric Thurston

That is really crazy! I looked at my thermometer that has both C and F scales to get a quick translation of 65C into F degrees. Well, my thermometer doesn’t go that high. We are heading off the charts.

Wake

I had read that the 165 was a direct sunlight estimate, wheras all real record are in the shade, with some sort of official covering

I have often wondered how much hotter something can get in the sun, does it simply depend on how fast the material radiates out the energy and is different for every item therefore, or does it depend on airflow, etc

Syd Bridges

We’re already at record low levels on NSIDC extent and JAXA area for this time of year. The Kara is rapidly melting and there is some melt in the Laptev. If they and the ESS see huge losses, then the 2012 record low could be under threat this year. I’ve watched the Arctic for a few years now, but I don’t recall such an influx of heat as this before the summer solstice. The loss of snow cover, should it occur, can only make matters worse. But a Congressman has seen a snow goose (or one might have seen what might have been a snow goose), so there’s clearly nothing to worry about.

rayduray

Alas, I discover the quiz was old. From 2012. I believe this blog helped me achieve good results however. I scored an 83% correct total. Average is 59%. I imagine this group of Robert Scribbler readers will be considered “gifted” by the CSM people.🙂

I think we’d do OK on that one. A few obscure bits that might well be termed climate change culture related. Although I’d say the Monitor could do with some added oomph to their own climate change coverage😉

Andy in San Diego

There have been 51 fires to date burning an area of just over 69,000 hectares. There are currently 38 fires still burning in the NWT. As a comparison to our average for this time of year, we’d usually expect seven fires this time of year and just over 5,000 hectares burned, so we’re well in advance of a normal year.

NOTE: Fire crews have been deployed to the NWT from Ontario to help with staffing and response. Crews are getting fatigued already this early in the season.

Andy in San Diego

The central Northwest Territories is home to around 200 billion barrels of oil, according to a new assessment released on Friday.

Canada’s National Energy Board (NEB), working with the NWT’s Geological Survey, says the Canol Shale holds an estimated 145 billion barrels of oil, with the Bluefish Shale accounting for a further 46 billion barrels.

If you look at the map, it is located on the Mackenzie River. That is bad as we know where the water comes from for fracking. That is bad as we know where the effluent goes.

I’m curious about the overall impact this has on holdover fires that just burn and burn through winter only to flare again during spring. From observation, thaw and provision of fuels in the deeper layers is a primary driver.

Andy in San Diego

Andy in San Diego

“Ice asks no questions, presents no arguments, reads no newspapers, listens to no debates. It is not burdened by ideology and carries no political baggage as it changes from solid to liquid. It just melts.”

That’s a good graphic, DT. May want to also look over at the Yamal Side where we have another warm air slot in play and to the North Atlantic where it appears we have trough development coincident with AMOC slow down (possible AMO flip).

Greg

Yes, and I hope we have no repeats like the needless sacrifice in Arizona of the Granite Mountain Hotshot crew in 2013.
They were sent to work in close to protect homes and structures built in the forest, or the boundary.
Hotshots are there to dig fire lines around the perimeter at a safe distance — not in close with homeowners.
I always thought highly of all Hotshots
I was in Flagstaff at the time. So I followed the story closely.
Almost no one would admit to recklessness of the command actions.

Ps. For many years, during many wildfires, I lived near the end of the main runway of SBA airport when fully loaded air tankers would take off barely clearing the Eucalyptus trees near us.
My wife and i would make sandwiches and snacks, and take them down to the tanker crews.
The sandwiches were well received.🙂

I’m sure all your support for them was well received! Very kind of you and your wife, DT. You’re good people. That’s the kind of thing I tend to do too. In the near future we will all need to be more helpful and kind to one another. This will be a big change for most in America, land of rugged individualism and I-got-mine-so-screw-you attitudes.

kevin jones

Colorado Bob

El Niños are well known for unleashing droughts, hotter-than-usual weather and paradoxically worse frosts in Australia, but they also drive remarkable – if temporary – changes to global sea levels.

While the shifts under way are so far barely discernible along the Australian coast, pointers of the forces are more evident in countries to Australia’s north.

“The western Pacific has already dropped about 20cm below its normal height, and the eastern Pacific – because it’s warmed up, it’s expanded – is 20-30cm higher than normal,” Andrew Watkins, head of climate prediction services at the Bureau of Meteorology, said.

“You literally start to see less water in the western pacific flowing through the Indonesian Archipelago.”

kevin jones

The bit I’ve been wondering about lately is the pretty strong spike we see in the satellite sea level measure. I’m curious if this is an indicator of 2014-2015 El Nino strength, or just the current El Nino amplifying an already quickened trend (implied at 4.4 mm per year rather than 3.3). If it’s an indicator of El Nino strength we are already past 1998 in the standard deviation measure. And still moving higher at this point.

My point is that with the recent inundations in the middle of North America breaking the drought, there’s going to be abundant harvests this year. The Four Horsemen are just going to have to hold their horses….. a bit longer.

Breaking the U.S. SW drought does serve to mitigate some potential impacts from India. Not sure how India feels about it, given Harsh’s recent comments. South America and Eastern Europe/Central Asia still wild cards.

Brian

From Charleston SC and would like anyone’s thoughts on future hurricane chances, probable strengths, and potential sea level rise for the area given the changing climate. Last storm of note being Hugo a category 4 in 89′. I have recently moved further inland but still work downtown and am curious about the long term sustainability of the downtown area. Thanks in advance.

Charleston, SC is one of the US’s most vulnerable cities to sea level rise. A combination of factors including global warming based sea level rise due to glacial outflow, reduction in Gulf Stream current strength, subsidence of the region due to crustal rebound, and gravity based SLR due to Antarctic melt all have an impact on Charleston.

Even under a mild global SLR of 3 feet by the end of this century, Charleston is likely to see nearly twice that due to the above factors. And, unfortunately, the range of SLR during that time is likely to be 3-9 feet globally and 5-14 feet for Charleston.

Large areas of Charleston are low-lying so only 1-2 feet of additional sea level rise is enough to cause serious trouble and greatly increase vulnerability to storm surge.

In addition, though hurricane potential may be somewhat murky due to a number of factors (the strongest storms are likely to get stronger, and the season in which storms may form is likely to get longer, but other factors may weigh on frequency), the prevalence of coastal storms along the US East Coast will almost certainly increase as we approach mid-century and as AMOC continues to weaken.

My opinion is that, like many other cities, Charleston will have to decide whether to fight or move inland. Most will fight and this will mean a mounting investment with likely ultimate failure to hold back the rising seas. Some residents will realize this and, as a result, we’ll likely start to see a degree of migration away from the coast. The hit to real estate values, then, is probably coming, and probably coming rather soon.

My opinion is that within the next ten years many people will be planning to move away from the coast (5-20 percent of coastal populations) and that this will be the first of many major setbacks to come for coastal communities.

You may also try adding storm surges of 3, 6, 9, 12, and 20 feet to determine added vulnerability on top of projected sea level rise.

Finally, there is an outlier chance that sea level rise will proceed faster due to catastrophic destabilization of various glacial systems. In such instances, Century based sea level rise can hit or exceed 10-16 feet globally. The risk for this increases as we approach 2 C above the Holocene average temperature.

Best of luck to you, Brian. For my own part, I’ve been trying to get my parents, sister, and grandparents — who live in the Virginia Beach area — to move inland soon (the sooner the better).

It’s best to move away from the shore while property values still hold. The most vulnerable coastal cities will face a crisis when SLR is acknowledged and factored into decisions by banks, and 30 year mortgages and other loans/investments are refused for continued development. Right now, Miami is still building luxury high rises just a couple feet above sea level, while the streets flood during king tides already. When people stop buying properties because they’ll face flooding by the end of the mortgage, billions upon billions worth of beach front property will become nearly worthless.

rayduray

The good news is that the summer appears to be shaping up to be one of the quietest Atlantic hurricane seasons. Various groups have recently made their predictions, many of them summarized at the Jeff Masters’ blog on the Wunderground website and the consensus is that relatively low sea surface temperatures in the Main Development Region, combined with the shearing effects of El Nino should prevent much action.

It’s well known that El Nino reduces Hurricane frequency in the Atlantic. That said, the North Atlantic is still +0.15 C above the already hotter than normal 1979 to 2000 average. So saying it’s cooler is like saying it’s cooler than pretty ridiculously hot. Much of the suppression in extreme deltas is due to North Atlantic cooling near Greenland.

In addition, we have a strong temperature gradient setting up as the Gulf Stream appears to have been shoved southward by the cooler water outflow from the near Greenland region. This gradient increases risk for storm generation as well as for the kinds of hybrid storms that we don’t really like to see either.

One last point — single, very powerful storms have developed during El Nino years. So though frequency has been tamped down, the instance of very powerful storms does not appear to be impacted by El Nino.

Anyone living on the coast in the Southeast or Mid Atlantic is seeing the impact of SLR now. It just gets worse from here. Hopefully, we can hit zero carbon emissions soon and prevent some of the very worst stuff.

Brian

Thank you very much for the detailed response and link to the NOAA calculator. Big help. Looks like I may have made the right choice in moving ahead of the rush. My best to you and good luck with your family.

Greg

Well done answer. I too have family in Va Beach and don’t bother with the get out of there discussion anymore as everyone doesn’t want to talk about downers. They live one mile from the beach and I have the fortune of having a great place to visit and enjoy without any of the responsibility. When I inherit this property I will sell immediately. I think the future developed world progressive coastal communities are going to become very flexible in terms of architecture and infrastructure (or perish) and cater to the well to do mostly who will live on large boats able to move from place to place at a moment’s notice to avoid bad weather and to find the best values in terms of docking/port fees and resource availability.

It’s happened quite a bit lately. You can usually find one region or another at +20 C (+36 F) anomaly in the global climate maps these days. It usually does mean new record daily highs within that zone, though. It’s a signature of warming pushing new temperature extremes over broader areas. So unprecedented and new normal all together.

Think of it this way. If the average high temperature for the day is 85 degrees F and you’re in one of those +36 zones, then you’re looking at 121 F for that day.

Spatially, we’ve typically seen much of the extreme anoms in the 50-70 North Latitude zones during late spring and summer. Coincident with polar amplification hitting the thawing permafrost zones. Extreme anoms during winter often hit the far upper Latitudes (70-90 North), which is also a blantant signal for polar amplification.

We haven’t seen much of this in the mid latitudes or equatorial zones. So it’s more ‘unprecedented’ when it happens there.

In any case, those living in the far north should be well aware that the climate is changing because they are really, really seeing it.

Griffin

Stick around Taylor! We get flummoxed on a daily basis on this blog.
In all seriousness, Robert’s blog has become my favorite place for clear information regarding climate. Sometimes the information is relevant to us right here in Massachusetts. Hopefully you become a regular reader of not just the posts, but also all of the comments. The amount of information posted here can be staggering. All of it relevant to the single most important topic of our time. What I have learned here has allowed me to speak on the subject with much more confidence, and has pushed me to activism.

Well said, Griffin! There is a fantastic amount of information and knowledge shared here, both in Robert’s great writing/posts and the comments. And you never have to deal with any nonsense from deniers…which is blissful.

Earth Sciences Minister Harsh Vardhan has blamed climate change for a heatwave that has killed 2,500 people and for deficient monsoon rains, after the government said on Tuesday the country was headed for its first drought in six years.

Good to see another science guy affirming that ‘climate change is happening now.’ What kills me is that we have to basically heat people over the head with verbal bricks to get them to figure this out.

rustj2015

Yes, art matters and does have effect, though mostly our side of the aesthetic would realize it.

This comment in Bonn involves scientists tenderly presenting the idea that 2 degC is not a good benchmark for current civilization and a lower temp would be better:

Thomas Stocker, a senior Swiss scientist from the U.N.’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, said governments faced tough choices in managing the risks of warming.
“The elephant in the room is what we can do to change the trend in emissions,” he told delegates.

Mr. Stocker does not mention the tyrannosaurus rex** also present in the room, politely called “the economy” and fitted out with conglomerate human intelligence of its original mendacity and appetite. This beast is adamantly resistant to changes in its diet, is partaking of the discussion and able to respond demonstratively to offense, and sees the planet as its rightful realm.
I believe it has dined on many who have pointed at it in disgust and digested a large portion of the debate. I do not believe it shows more than a pecuniary appetite for art.
These are the presences and atmospheres building for Paris.

rustj2015

It’s pretty clear that capitalism’s central flaw is what happens when an industry ends up in a position where its profits come from harming the public and wrecking the commons. That said, directly targeting the destructive industries is a good response. I’d term it a defensive response. The best response, however, is to change the system so that industries do not develop in this manner. That harm reduction is built into the system. Such a system is definitely not capitalistic in nature, as the ideal value inherent to the system would not be based on profit generation. The best ideal would be a value generation system, one that is nimbly adept at confronting harmful behaviors and deconstructing them as well as directly aimed at a broad increase in life value for both humans and all living creatures.

This is a benevolent ideal and one we should consider as an appropriate counter to the greed and hunger that is at the center of capitalism. That said, we live in a hybrid system that includes a good degree of capitalism today. And so we must confront what is the reality at hand. That means fighting the defensive action to take down the harmful industry that is now entrenched.

luddite

At cci-reanalyzer.org go to forecasts, go to Arctic, go to parameter precipitation and clouds. It is raining in the Arctic Ocean. It has been raining in the Arctic Ocean. Considerable rain is in the forecast for the Arctic Ocean. Some posters over at Neven’s are following the precipitable water forecasts. I can’t find any indication anywhere that anyone has noticed that it is raining.

Colorado Bob

Warming From Greenhouse Gas Can Be Felt in Just Months, Scientists Say

Global warming is often thought of as a slow, gradual process that plays out over decades, but a new study by climate scientists at the Carnegie Institution for Science says the impact from burning fossil fuels can be felt in a matter of months. Carnegie’s Xiaochun Zhang and Ken Caldeira compared the heat generated by burning coal, oil and natural gas with the warming caused by the resulting release of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere. It took just 34 days for the CO2-caused warming to exceed the amount of heat released by the combustion of a lump of coal. The same threshold was reached in 45 days for a single incident of oil combustion, and in 59 days for a single instance of burning natural gas. “Ultimately, the warming induced by carbon dioxide over the many thousands of years it remains in the atmosphere would exceed the warming from combustion by a factor of 100,000 or more,” Caldeira said in a Carnegie news release.

Griffin

I will be honest, I found his remarks to be distasteful. As many of us try to communicate the urgency of our situation, it is important that we consider the mindset of the audience. Many folks may hear that power plants contribute to our warming planet. They really may not know how that works, they may very well think that the heat coming out the stack is part of it. OK, to a climatologist, that is ridiculous, I get that. But coming out and publicly bashing the work, I am not so sure that such remarks do much to help anyone. I thought that the message of the dangers of greenhouse gases was the more defining message of the authors. Perhaps they were looking to reach a broader audience, but that’s who needs to know.

Agreed. As often noted here, scientists are not always great communicators. Climate Central messes up now and then also (e.g., very recent tweet about heat waves not as dangerous as moderately cold weather). Scientifically accurate, I assume, but I’m not sure what constructive purpose publicizing it serves, particularly against the backdrop of the Indian heat wave.

My take — is that heat is heat.
New heat is introduced heat that was not there before.
Adding heat and heat trapping GHG to a finite atmosphere surrounding a mostly water covered planet is a recipe for disaster — and all of it’s attendant positive feed backs.
Whichever data, or aspects, one throws at the problem — the better.

Life, as we know it, is made possible only because of a relatively small ambient temperature range on our dear Mother Earth.
If we keep adding heat to it — we cook.

I agree with Mann. This is a good study that highlights the massive long-term impact of fossil fuel burning. It also underlines the importance of rapid cessation of fossil fuel burning, which I feel is absolutely necessary at this time.

Colorado Bob

Scientists finally have an explanation for why huge lakes atop Greenland are vanishing
Back in the summer of 2006, scientists studying the vast and in some places mile-thick Greenland ice sheet observed something that can only be called breathtaking.

Due to meltwater, lakes form atop the ice sheet in the summer – scientists call them “supraglacial lakes” — and they can grow to be quite large. And in July 2006, one large lake, over 2 square miles in area, suddenly vanished. It lost most of its water in under two hours – researchers calculated that the rate of drainage “exceeded the average flow rate over Niagara Falls.”

Colorado Bob

Colorado Bob

That Greenland paper is real depressing , it speaks to an ice sheet that is turning into Swiss cheese. And every a time a lake drains, it’s melt water carries more heat into the ice. Making more voids where water can travel . That water jacks up the ice cracks it, and adds to the ice flow . All of which is transporting heat deep into ice sheet .

Colorado Bob

Quoting 319. hydrus:
Some of the scientists have known what is causing this for some time now. Moulins will freeze, only to re open when the spring comes, and it happens quick.

Yes, well no one had the numbers.

But these folks measured it. for 9 years And as we know, measurements are are what science does . And the findings are interesting , before the lake drains , the ice rises and moves to the sea. Then the bottom of the lake cracks open, and the lake drains . But other sources of water are jacking up the bottom of this lake.

This all points to a melt pump in Greenland. And as robertscribbler points out that shows up as that one spot in the North Atlantic South East of the rip of Greenland where SST’s remain cooler . That’s melt water coming off Greenland doing that. I think it’s a jet. because there is wall of land in that area. With one gateway. And it points directly at his spot. A huge amount of Greenland fresh water is doing this.

Jay M

Seems like the Laurentide ice sheet vanished in a meer twinkle of the eye due to increased insolation from planetary movement. Different animal when you are liquidating world wide inventories that have been one of the mechanisms sequestering terrestrial carbon stores.

Colorado Bob

Kevin Jones

A mariner friend, speaking of a ship’s displacement, once asked how much water would be required to float a large one in a dry dock shaped to perfectly fit it’s hull. (hint: FAR less than it’s displacement when afloat in the water) Your image sure reminds me of that chat….

TomCobbler

Heads up! Big paper coming out tomorrow at 2pm In Science from NOAA’s NCDC. Rumors that it is something about “the pause” ending. I hate to reference WUWT but I had to figure out Gavin Schmidt’s last tweet about the CATO institute freaking out about the paper before its even released. If anyone knows anything additional, please add.

Vic

Yep, coal’s downfall is beginning to show an uncanny resemblance to the legend of Old King Cole…

“Desperate for some relief, however, the enemy advanced an all-or-nothing attack on Coel’s stronghold. Coel and his men were taken by surprise, overrun and scattered to the winds. It is said that Coel wandered the unknown countryside until he eventually got caught in a bog at Coilsfield (in Tarbolton, Ayrshire) and drowned.” 😃

Glad to see coal go. But gas is no solution at all. We need solar + wind + other no carbon energy + efficiency to eat oil and gas’s lunch. Otherwise, no real fix. Otherwise, the near worst case is still locked in. In this analysis, you really need to consider coal, oil and gas to be three legs on the same ugly stool. And you can’t take the darn thing down unless you remove all the legs.

kevin jones

Greg

A very nice walk through of what an alternative energy world looks like. This is Orkney Islands which are generating more than 100% of their energy from renewables and are, in fact, needing electric vehicles to soak up the excess!

Greg

Even heating greenhouses with the excess. That is what happens with renewables. Why think in terms of 50% or 60%, why not capture all of this wind, solar and tidal power and go beyond our immediate needs to create something bigger that brings local jobs, and agriculture, and excitement to these otherwise barren rocks!

TomCobbler

“Our new analysis suggests that the apparent hiatus may have been largely the result of limitations in past datasets, and that the rate of warming over the first 15 years of this century has, in fact, been as fast or faster than that seen over the last half of the 20th century.”

Colorado Bob

OSLO (Reuters) – An apparent slowdown in the pace of global warming in recent years may be an illusion based on skewed data, according to a study on Thursday that found no break in a trend of rising temperatures.

Wharf Rat

Hurricane Blanca put on a furious display of rapid intensification this week, going from a tropical storm with 70 mph winds on Tuesday morning to a Category 4 storm with 135 mph winds on Wednesday morning–a remarkable 65 mph increase in winds in 24 hours, an intensification rate that is rarely seen. Blanca topped out at 140 mph winds on Wednesday afternoon, making it the fourth strongest Northeast Pacific hurricane for so early in the year. It has been a remarkable run of early-season activity for the region, since just two days before that Hurricane Andres topped out as a Category 4 storm with 145 mph winds, becoming the second strongest Northeast Pacific hurricane for so early in the year. Only six Northeast Pacific major hurricanes have occurred prior to June 5 since accurate satellite records began in 1971, and two of them were this year:

kevin jones

Greg

While heavy rains in Ghana in June are not abnormal, this year’s have been especially bad. This gas station exploded when heavy rains resulted in fuel escaping before hitting an ignition source. Bitter irony that the world’s most vulnerable are hit the hardest by their climates and these Ghanaians, seeking shelter at a fossil fuel source, resulted in at least 73 of their deaths:

Greg

kevin jones

A WORD OF CAUTION. Routinely I do a Google search of climate news. I just saw this: In-Depth Los Angeles Times 54 minutes ago Global warming ‘hiatus’ puts scientists on the spot by Monte Morin …a lousy piece. then I notice the date: Sept. 22, 2013 8 AM…this ‘news’ was not there an hour or so ago. Google. Is this deliberate obfuscation?

rayduray

I’m seeing more and more of this with Google searches. Today, for one example, I was searching for reviews of Apple TV. After wading through a ton of ads I spotted an Ars Technica piece. I got to page three of this in-depth review before realizing that the article was written in 2007. They’d buried the date in tiny print at Ars Techica and Google gave no indication at all as to how stale the article was. I was miffed. I’m not buying the damn thing!🙂

Another annoyance I’m seeing all over the place is “click bait” at the bottom of decent articles on decent sites leading to crappy promotional materials.