Wednesday, August 6, 2008

Florida President

John McCain 47Barack Obama 44

John McCain has retaken the lead in Florida after trailing Barack Obama by a small margin last month. The candidates split the independent vote, while McCain receives 84% support from Republicans and Obama gets 76% support from Democrats. The Democrats crossing over to support McCain are disproportionately older white females, an indication that Hillary Clinton's base may not be completely behind Obama in the Sunshine State.

Obama has slipped with Hispanic voters in the last month, leading among them just 48-45 after holding a 51-37 advantage in PPP's previous Florida poll. The numbers show an unusual gender gap, with McCain leading by 11 points among women while trailing by 5 points with men. Last month's results similarly showed Obama doing eight points better with men than women, a trend PPP has not seen in any of its other state by state polling.

Obama has a large lead among young voters, McCain has a big one with senior citizens, and the candidates are virtually tied with those in between.

49 comments:

McCain having an advantage among women is extraordinary and while it is good news in the short term for McCain, it suggests that if Obama can recover these women voters, he can win the state.

Critical to this is Hillary and if she is seen to be campaigning for Obama in a way that is visible and genuine in Florida, it is very much in play. Of course if Hillary acts like Bill and does it in a half hearted way then it won't make any difference.

florida is gonna be tough for obama. 4 percent of the electorate are jewish americans that dont really approve of him, and there are alot of seniors who aren't to thrilled about change coming during their last years. watch Obama with at least a 10 point lead by the end of september. Right now mccain is spending alot going after obama, but once he's on public financing this race is over!

I'd love t osee the cross tabs of this poll. SurveyUA also cooked the books in it's OR poll only giving Dems +4 in voter ID when ir's +10. They also convenientlt had only 4% Hispanics while they are registered at 10%. Obama is winning hipsanics 60+% to low 20% over McCain. Never take much stock in a poll until yoy see the crosstabs. The media and pollsters are determeined to make things seem close as it builds interest and makes them money thru advertsiing and driving people to their websites.

That was Bill Clinton's biggest applause line from 1988. His speech caused a minor scandal. We should have known then that it would always be about Bill.

This whole dust up over the Clinton's this week is evidence that there is a significant factional problem within the Democrat Party. Bill is still licking his wounds in Africa and Hillary is courting her PUMAs and planning her roll call. Party Unity My Ass, indeed!

It is amazing to me that Clinton, the former Icon of his Party, could have been treated so shabbily this election year and that the Obama campaign and its supporters would be so willing to throw him under the bus along with so many others. That he is pissed and feeling dissed is entirely natural.

It would be a mistake to think that there are not many other Democrats who are feeling similarly bruised and while not yet ready to defect are not all that enthusiastic about Obama, who after all only got 50% of the votes in the primaries to 50% for Mrs. Clinton. Do not discount that Bill’s treatment and resentment over it has potentially moved the polls in NY a nudge.

Obama is about to take a week off. To me that is an amazing move. While it is undeniable that a significant segment of the population is sick of hearing about him, it is a huge mistake to leave the playing field to your enemies.

Both McCain and the Clintons can use the week to sharpen their knives (and claws) get ready for the sprint to the Conventions.

Do not think for a moment that the Clintons are ready yet to give up their quest for power.

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