When Precipitation Patterns Change

Part B. Visualizing Drought Indicators

Three of the most obvious indicators of drought are below-normal soil moisture, lack of precipitation, and decreased streamflows. You'll explore each of these parameters briefly to develop a sense for what happens to land that is experiencing drought.

Optional extension

If you have access to a soil moisture probe, measure the soil moisture in each container before you place them in the sun. You could also perform this part of the activity using a balance to measure the mass of each container.

Carefully remove the plastic wrap from both containers: try to keep moisture that has collected on the plastic wrap from dripping into the soil and measure the soil moisture again.

Remove the containers from the sunlight or lamp and leave them uncovered overnight. Re-wrap the containers and repeat the experiment the following day.

Graph the change in soil moisture you observe over time. Try to predict when the soil moisture of the originally wet sample will decrease to the same level of moisture as the originally dry sample.

Stop and Think

3. Compare your model to the real world: describe the situation represented by each container. 4. On average, the Western U.S. experience fewer cloudy days per year than the Eastern U.S. Based on this fact, which area is more likely to have drier soil and therefore, be more prone to drought?

Decreased precipitation

The National Weather Service keeps records of the amount of precipitation across the contiguous United States. You'll explore some of these images in Google Earth, such as the one pictured right, and interpret them to predict which areas might be developing or experiencing drought.

In the Layers list in Google Earth, click the arrow next to the NWS layer to reveal the list of sub-layers. Start by un-checking the boxes to turn off all the sub-layers except for January 2008 Precipitation.

Use the information in the two sections below to walk you through interpreting the two different types of images in the file. NOTE: The file you downloaded shows data images for the Spring of 2008. To view web-based images of current data, go to the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service: Precipitation.

Interpreting Precipitation Images

Monthly Precip. Amounts

Turn on the January 2008 Precipitation layer. Use the color scale on the right to interpret the map colors.

On the map, look at the area where you live to see what color it is. Check where that color is on the scale.

Find an area on the map that is a different color. Check that color on the scale to see if the second location received more or less rain than your area.

Check carefully to find areas on the map that had the most and least precipitation.

After you've worked on understanding the patterns, check your interpretation by revealing the example interpretation below.

Stop and Think

5. Which areas in the contiguous U.S. consistently received less precipitation than normal during January 2008?6. Based on your explorations, describe the locations that you think were developing or experiencing drought by June of 2008.

Once you're confident that you can make meaning of the colorful images, one of the image sublayers at a time. Check the precipitation amount and departure from normal for your own location and look for areas that received less precipitation than normal.

Explore the data across the contiguous United States, and within a region of interest. Choose for example, an area near your home, or in an area of known drought.

Look at the 7-day, 30-day, and year-to-date maps. Switch between the Observed, Normal, and Departure from Normal maps. Look for areas that may be currently experiencing meteorological drought conditions.

Reduced streamflow

The United States Geologic Survey (USGS) provides streamflow data from gauging stations across the country. At each station, instruments estimate the downstream flow of water and use wireless communication devices to submit the information to central locations. Flow rates are classified according to historical records so you can tell at a glance of a stream is above, at, or below normal levels.

If necessary, open the real_us.kmz file in Google Earth. Turn the layer on by clicking in the checkbox to the left of its name. Click the arrow to the left of the check box to reveal the various layers of the streamflow data.

Checking In

From the legend, which colors indicate gauging stations that are reporting low streamflows?

Answers will vary. Areas that show many red, dark red, and orange dots have low streamflow.

Use the check boxes in the legend to turn off the streams that are normal or higher or not ranked. You will have 3 sets of gauges remaining on your map. They represent rivers and streams where the flow is below the 25th percentile of normal flow for that day of the year.

Stop and Think

7. If an area shows just one stream gauge location with lower than normal streamflow, can you assume that the area is in drought? Why or why not? Describe one or more conditions besides drought that could account for low streamflow.8. Based on patterns in the streamflow data, predict which areas of the country are experiencing drought.

To focus in on the areas where drought is severe, extreme, or exceptional, turn off the drought index layers that are less than D2.

Compare the areas of drought with the predictions you made based on precipitation and streamflow.

Stop and Think

9. How well did your predictions match the drought monitor map? Describe areas where your predictions were correct and areas where they did not match.10. Of the two main types of data you examinedprecipitation and the streamflowwhich of the two seems to be a better predictor of drought conditions identified by the Drought Monitor layer?