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Last Dog Days of Summer Markets and A Few Money Savings Tips

Here’s a letter that we shared today with our clients, friends and prospects. I’m posting it in hopes that you might find some value in it.

As the summertime fun draws nearer to its final days, I hope that you’ve been able to take some time to get out there and relax with your families.

The markets have been kind over the summer and have given us much to be optimistic about. But if you’ve heard or listened to the never ending supply of prognosticators out there, you’d think that the market was about to fall out of the sky any day now. As I’ve mentioned before, while it seems that the market may have gotten ahead of itself a bit, and the fundamental economic factors may not fully support such a bullish run, I don’t see anything that supports a return to anywhere near the March lows. However, there’s a “but” to be mentioned.

A few technical signs have developed over the last few days that signal that the current market may be a bit overbought, and therefore may be ripe for some profit taking. I therefore want to caution you that we may see a correction of sorts come September, perhaps in the range of 3-5%, maybe more. However, I believe that based on all of the improving economic reports, we will eventually resume our uptrend and I predict that we will see double-digit gains come year-end. The funny thing is though, my crystal ball did not come with a money back guarantee, so please accept my prediction solely for its entertainment value rather than anything to rely or invest on.

The month of September traditionally has not been kind to the stock markets, so please be prepared for some bumpiness. Should we see an overall deterioration or any hint of a so called double-dip recession, we will take appropriate protective action for our client portfolios. But right now, all signs point to a very slow economic recovery over the next year.

Some Money Saving Tips:

Now a Doubly Great Deal: You may recall that I touted this cash back deal from Bing last month. This month, Microsoft is doubling the cash back for a limited time. If you’re shopping for anything online, try the price comparison tool at http://Pricegrabber.com, then look for that merchant on Microsoft’s new search tool at http://bing.com. Click on “Shopping”. Enter the item name in the bing search box, and look for merchants offering “Bing cash back” of 2-40%. Compare the prices on the two sites (PriceGrabber and Bing) and, if the price is less after the rebate on Bing, then buy it there and have the rebates deposited into your PayPal account. Ka-ching!

1st Time Home Buyer’s Credit: If you know of a 1st time home buyer (anyone who hasn’t owned a home in the last three years), they have until November 30 to close on a home and get a refundable 10% tax credit up to $8,000. They get this money back even if they owe no federal income tax. But since banks are taking upwards of 60 days to close a deal, getting to an agreement by the end of September is essential so the buyer does not miss out on the tax credit. See http://www.federalhousingtaxcredit.com/2009/index.html for more details on this credit.

Would you like free fries and drink with that?: McDonald’s is offering a free medium fries & soft drink or tea with the purchase of any Angus 1/3 Pound Burger-coupon expires 8/31/09. http://bit.ly/f4M7E

Funny Quote: “The United States has developed a weapon that destroys people but leaves buildings standing. It’s called the stock market.” -Jay Leno

Please enjoy the last few days of summer and your Labor Day weekend.

I welcome your comments and feedback. If you have any questions, please feel free to get it touch with me and be sure to share this message with your friends and colleagues. And please be sure to let your friends know about me if you think that they might benefit from my services. As a CFP® and NAPFA registered investment advisor, we have a fiduciary responsibility to always put your interest ahead of ours and avoid conflicts of interest. Most brokers and advisors cannot say this nor do they adhere to this very high standard of care.

Sam H. Fawaz CFP®, CPA is president of YDream Financial Services, Inc., a registered investment advisor and can be found at http://www.ydfs.com. All material presented herein is believed to be reliable, but we cannot attest to its accuracy. Investment recommendations may change and readers are urged to check with their investment advisors before making any investment decisions. Opinions expressed in this writing by Sam H. Fawaz are his own, may change without prior notice and should not be relied upon as a basis for making investment or planning decisions. No person can accurately forecast or call a market top or bottom, so forward looking statements should be discounted and not relied upon as a basis for investing or trading decisions.