June 22, 2019

Zhang Jun, dean of School of Economics at Fudan University and director of China Center for Economic Studies, a Shanghai-based think tank, thinks so in anOp-ed in Project Syndicate of 21 June, 2019. According to Zhang,

"China is too deeply embedded in global supply chains simply to go away. Alienating the world’s leading manufacturer and industrial producer — with its consumer market of 1.4 billion people — will severely disrupt global value chains and cast a shadow over the entire world economy." "... deviations from free-market orthodoxy and abuses of state power could shake America’s own economic foundations and threaten its institutions."

"Beyond retaliating directly, through tariffs on agricultural products and commercial aircraft, it could tighten capital controls, dump its unparalleled holdings of US treasury debt or allow its currency to depreciate. (The wave of competitive devaluations triggered by the latter option would destabilize the U.S. dollar, as well as the international monetary institutions.)"

"But, rather than allow the Trump administration to push it to increase imports unilaterally — an approach that is both naive and reckless — China is insisting on resolving the problem in stages. The world should support this method, with the U.S., in particular, relaxing restrictions on exports to China and welcoming Chinese investment in the U.S."

Much-needed infrastructural investments including ports and other logistics linking to the world's largest trading nation are seen by smaller and larger European countries alike as hugely beneficial. While many of America's concerns are shared, such as lack of corporate governance, debt burden and impact on the environment, the rhetoric about a geopolitical plot behind the Initiative is generally regarded as overblown.

China's various state-owned entities have taken substantial equity stakes in some European ports e.g. 51% in Port Piraeus, 49.9% in two terminals in Genoa and 35% in Rotterdam. According to the article, new cooperation agreements or letters of intent are now being signed with a string of European countries including Italy (Trieste), Netherlands (Rotterdam), Belgium, Spain, France, and Malta. Even Norway's Arctic city of Kirkenes is building a new sea port to connect to China's "Polar Silk Road".

June 20, 2019

Writing for The National Interest on 17 June, 2019, Robert Kaplan, managing director for global macro at Eurasia Group, warns of "the coming Chinese Empire".

A different class of America competitor multiple degrees more formidable than the former Soviet Union, China's ascendancy is driven by efficient state capitalism supported by robust civilizational culture and its Belt and Road Initiative of global ambitions.

Kaplan proposes that the United States should avoid getting entangled in the Middle East and should focus instead on the Indo-Pacific. While unlikely to become a firm US ally, India's capabilities should be strengthened together with boosting Taiwan's defences, both as counterweight against the spread of China's growing influence in the region.

He concludes by saying that "the last thing American policymakers or strategists should assume is that somehow we are superior to the Chinese, or worse: that somehow we have a destiny that they do not."

June 16, 2019

China Debate, a non-partisan platform, features a bullet-point synopsis of what the extradition bill is all about, what's behind it, how it has been handled, what are the repercussions both in Hong Kong and internationally, including complications with US-China trade talks and future relations.

June 13, 2019

While China is brazing itself to withstand Trumpian bullying on all fronts, the narrative that the United States holds all the cards against China deserves a little perspective. China has powerful cards up its sleeve.

These three alone should give pause to America First sky-is-the-limit bullying of China, not to mention an arsenal of other non-tariff measures calculated to inflict serious harm to many American businesses exposed to the China market as well as other manoeuvres designed to complicate America's diplomatic and geopolitical interests including North Korea.