Almost two-thirds of Australia's coal-fired generation will be out by 2040, Aemo says

Rooftop solar capacity to double or even triple to replace existing thermal generation, new assessment by the energy market operator predicts

Australia’s ageing coal-fired power plants could be shuttered earlier than expected if competition from renewable generators and carbon budgets render them uneconomic, according to a new assessment by the Australian Energy Market Operator.

Aemo will, on Thursday, publish a new draft integrated system plan which snapshots the unfolding revolution underway in Australia’s energy market. The energy market operator predicts rooftop solar capacity will double or even triple, providing up to 22% of total energy by 2040.

It says 63% of Australia’s coal-fired generation will be out of the system by 2040, and more than 30 gigawatts (GW) of large-scale renewable energy will be needed to replace existing thermal generation. ...

Australian miners hit by biggest thermal coal price drop in more than a decade

Drop comes as usage in Europe and the US declines and China tightens use of imported coal

Australian coal exporters have experienced the biggest annual drop in thermal coal prices in more than a decade during 2019, raising doubts about industry projections that demand will continue to grow.

The spot price of thermal coal, which is burned to generate electricity, was US$66.20 ($95) last week, down more than a third from US$100.73 ($145) a year earlier.

According to the government’s latest resources and quarterly energy report, it is expected to cut export earnings from the industry from last year’s record A$26bn to A$20.6bn this year and A$18.8bn next year.

The drop in price came as China increased its reliance on domestic coal stocks and tightened its use of imported coal, particularly from Australia.

The International Energy Agency recently found global thermal coal use declined this year after rising in 2017 and 2018, but forecast a slight increase over the next five years as rising demand from India offset a shift away from it in Europe and the US.

A more detailed analysis of 2019 trends by several thinktanks found coal-fired electricity was headed for a 3% fall, the biggest drop on record after more than four decades of near-uninterrupted growth in which coal-fired power has been a primary driver of the climate crisis.

The decrease has been driven by a historically sharp reduction in Europe, where demand for coal-fired power fell 23%, and the US, where it dropped 14% in the first nine months of the year despite Donald Trump’s vow that he would resurrect the local industry.

BlackRock, the world's largest fund manager, is dumping more than half a billion dollars in thermal coal shares from all of its actively managed portfolios, as part of a more active global stance on climate change driven by chief executive Larry Fink.

The coal ban, which includes any company earning 25 per cent of its revenue from thermal coal, will apply to BlackRock's $US1.8 trillion ($2.6 trillion) in actively managed equity portfolios.

Even more broadly -

"It's become very clear, I think, in the last few years that climate risk represents significant investment risk in portfolios and I think that the regulators, as well as managers like BlackRock, are saying that this risk in the portfolio is material."
A defining factor

Mr Fink announced the coal ban on Tuesday in his annual letter to the chief executives of global companies BlackRock is invested in.

This year the letter was almost entirely devoted to climate change and its potential impact on the global allocation of capital.

"Last September, when millions of people took to the streets to demand action on climate change, many of them emphasised the significant and lasting impact that it will have on economic growth and prosperity – a risk that markets to date have been slower to reflect.

"But awareness is rapidly changing, and I believe we are on the edge of a fundamental reshaping of finance."

Schlumberger, the largest oil-field services company, is responding to the ongoing shale slump by selling underperforming businesses, stacking frac fleets, closing locations and laying off employees.

The company reported a $10.1 billion loss in 2019 compared with a $2.2 billion profit in 2018. It had $32.9 billion in revenue for the year compared with $32.8 billion in the previous year, an increase of 0.3 percent.

Full-year earnings were dragged down by an $11.4 billion loss in the third quarter, when the company wrote down the value of two past acquisitions and experienced nearly a year of weakened demand from its North American hydraulic fracturing business.

During a Friday morning investors call, Schlumberger CEO Olivier Le Peuch reported that the 2020 shale market is expected to decline by high-single or low-double digit percentages. In response, the company's North American arm is selling noncore businesses, stacking nearly one-third of its hydraulic fracturing fleet and closing one-fourth of its locations. Schlumberger also said it laid off 1,400 North American employees in the fourth quarter. ...

Let's hope this is a sign that oil is beginning to follow coal's death spiral.

Kim

n mid-January, Adam Waterous, who operates the private equity firm Waterous Energy Fund, made a prediction about the crown jewel of the U.S. shale oil industry, the Permian shale play that straddles Texas and New Mexico.

“We think we are at or near peak Permian,” Waterous told Bloomberg. “The North American oil market has been grossly overcapitalized, which is not sustainable.”

Bloomberg reporter Simon Casey goes on to qualify that “[p]redicting peak Permian output for 2020 isn’t a mainstream view.” However, evidence is piling up that the U.S. shale industry may indeed be close to peaking as it runs out of the two things required to continue increasing oil production: money and what's known as “tier one acreage.”

Tier one acreage is the term for the areas that produce the most oil per well. It's also known as “sweet spots,” “core acreage,” or “good rock.”

The idea of the U.S. shale revolution peaking long before either the broader oil and gas industry or the Energy Information Administration expects isn’t a popular one. And the idea was even less popular when DeSmog started detailing why it was likely all the way back in October 2018, and even when the Wall Street Journal made the case a year later.

Today, as more and more Permian oil companies go bankrupt and wells in the nation's most prolific oil patch turn out less and less, one early warning nows seems especially prescient. In 2018, Paal Kibsgaard, the CEO of Schlumberger — one of the largest oil services providers — cautioned about declining well productivity in the Permian Basin, pointing to increasing “child wells” and to the boom-gone-bust Texas oilfield, the Eagle Ford Shale. ...

Grazing land being rezoned outside of Townsville purportedly for green energy, even though the land appears far in excess of the actual need and even though there are alternate sites in already existing industrial zones.

Grazing land being rezoned outside of Townsville purportedly for green energy, even though the land appears far in excess of the actual need and even though there are alternate sites in already existing industrial zones.

The issues are difficult to resolve because both the blocks of "development" land under discussion are very flat and very low-lying. and Townsville is prone to extreme rainfall events (like last year's) with or without cyclones and storm surges. So should they industrialise farming land near the head of the dam, or the mangrove swamp? Neither looks good to me, given climate change, extreme weather and sea-level rise.
And council signed off on housing development on flood-prone ground (Idalia, Oonoonba) a few years ago, so I don't really trust them on this one either.

The Future We Choose, a new book by the architects of the Paris climate accords, offers two contrasting visions for how the world might look in thirty years
...
This is an edited extract from The Future We Choose: Surviving the Climate Crisis by Christiana Figueres and Tom Rivett-Carnac, published by Manilla Press (£12.99). To order a copy go to guardianbookshop.com. Free UK p&p over £15

The TSDA was established in 2003 and currently hosts a meatworks, rail freight terminal, prison and copper and zinc refineries on a 4,915-hectare site 6km from Townsville.... a spokesman for the Queensland coordinator-general said land was available immediately for development without filling and could accommodate a range of industries. The spokesman said a further 810 ha of land was acquired in 2018 to meet future demand, but ultimately the department expected Woodstock will be needed for industry as the TSDA fills.

The Townsville battery plant is expected to be a 18-gigawatt hour plant situated on 400 hectares of land located in Townsville, Australia. The project has received an AU$3.1 million dollar grant from the Queensland government to be spent on the feasibility study for the plant, which was recently submitted to the government.

The purpose of this Act is to establish an efficient , effective, transparent , integrated, coordinated, and accountable system of land use planning (planning), development assessment and related matters that facilitates the achievement of ecological sustainability.

Oh well. I was going to offer you info to assist you writing to the Minister so you could make merit. When I meet Jesus or have to sign off for the next rebirth, I have another good deed to show for merit points. Its still not too late to practise Engaged Buddhism rather than merely talk about it.

Sure. I might possibly know of M.W. However, numbers are important. People are important. The bottom line is State Govt is due to decide on rezoning of 400 hectares of land where only 10% of that size is required for such a battery plant. Plenty of already industrial zoned 40 hectares. Writing an email to the minister takes 10 minutes. It all depends on you. Tell all your friends. You, Kim O'Hara, could make the difference. Its a chance for rebirth with Buddhaghosa in the highest heaven.

We got to stand side by side
We got to stand together and organize
Send power to the people
Freedom of the soul
Pass it on, pass it on, to the young and the old
Pushing on straight ahead
Straight ahead, baby

BAMBOLIN, Goa, India (Reuters) - Coal-fired power in India is being increasingly priced out of the market by cheaper renewables such as solar, with the dirtier fuel abandoned by private capital, and only projects with government support being viable. ...

Coal is in an “unfair fight” and is increasingly losing, said Tim Buckley, director of energy finance studies at think tank the Institute of Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA).

While IEEFA is unashamedly pro-renewables, the numbers definitely support the view that coal power generation is struggling in India, and that several newly-built plants run the risk of becoming stranded assets.

Renewables can be offered in PPAs at around 3 rupees (4.2 cents) per kilowatt hour (kw/h), while existing coal generation comes in at around 4 rupees per kw/h and new-build coal between 5 and 6 rupees per kw/h.

Once built, renewables also tend to force coal from the generation mix, as they have lower operating costs.

As a result, India’s current coal fleet has a utilisation rate of around 52%-55%, well below a level that would be considered economic in other countries.

After a massive build-out of coal-fired generation from about 2010 to 2016, construction has slowed to a near trickle, while investment in renewables has soared. ...

it’s clear that the money has abandoned coal for renewables, with only government companies remaining committed to the dirtier fuel.

But India’s ongoing battles with air pollution, and the likely cost to the health of residents in its major cities may ultimately force a quicker change to renewables, especially if clean and green resources are winning the price war as well.