Sunday, April 14, 2013

Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it. - SantayanaThe question of whether to commit new funds to stocks here is nuanced and complex, not least because it isn't obvious that traditional alternatives - bonds or cash - offer any better value. We are very near all-time low interest rates across most developed government bond markets, credit spreads are near all-time tights, and rates are negative out to 5 or more years in real terms. If these options are representative of the complete opportunity set, then one might be justified in apportioning some capital to equities, if only because it is difficult to identify which investment stinks most profoundly.However, those who do choose to allocate to equities should be aware of where we are relative to other bull-bear cycles throughout history. We have rambled-on about the poor prospects for equity returns over the next 10 - 20 years in many prior articles (see here for a full analysis, and here for a summary of research from other respected firms), but the true authority on stock market valuation is John Hussman. We would strongly encourage readers to investigate Dr. Hussman's Weekly Market Comments for all the gory details.This article approaches the issue from a completely new direction than our other work and the work of Dr. Hussman. It is mostly constructed as a thought experiment that explores the logic of compounding, but the conclusion is troubling for those currently overweight U.S. equities.For the purpose of the study below, we examined the S&P 500 price series from Shiller's publicly available database to understand the duration and magnitude of all bull and bear market periods in U.S. stocks since 1871. We defined a bear market as a drop in prices of at least 20% from any peak, and which lasted at least 3 months. Bull markets were then defined as a rise of at least 50% from the bottom of a bear market, over a period lasting at least 6 months.Chart 1 and Table 1 describe every bull market since 1871 in the S&P, including duration and magnitude information. The lesson from this analysis is uninspiring for equity bulls, as we will see. The core hurdle is that the current bull market has (through end of February) already delivered 105% of gains, against the median 124% bull market run through history (using monthly data). Of course, this means that, should this bull market deliver an average surge, investors can hope for less than 20% more growth from this cycle. Further, given that the median bull market has historically lasted 50 months, and we are currently in our 49th bull month, we are about due for a wipeout.

Chart 1. Bull Markets since 1871

Source: Shiller (2013)Table 1. Bull Markets since 1871 - Statistics

Source: Shiller (2013)

It's troubling enough that the current bull market has already delivered 85% of the gains, and lasted about as long, as the median historical bull market. More disconcerting still is the fact that, when the bear market comes, as Chart 2. and Table 2. demonstrate, it is likely to wipe out 38% of all prior gains. And this has profound mathematical implications for current equity investors.Chart 2. Bear Markets since 1871

Source: Shiller (2013)Table 2. Bear Markets since 1871 - Statistics

Source: Shiller (2013)Portfolio growth is governed by the mathematics of compounding, which means that, for example, a 100% gain is erased by a 50% loss, and a 50% loss requires a 100% gain to get back to even. Applying the same principles to where we are in the current bull/bear cycle is illuminating.If we assume that the next bear market will deliver losses in-line with what we have experienced from bear markets through history, then at the bottom of the next bear market investors will have lost 38% of their portfolio value. The question is, how much must current investors expect stocks to gain before peaking to justify owning them here instead of waiting to purchase them in the next bear market?

The most unbiased estimate of the magnitude of the next bear market is the historical median of 38%. Using the math of compounding, we can determine that a 38% loss requires a 61% gain to break-even [1 / (1 - 38%)]. Logically then, and by extension, investors who choose to hold stocks today must expect gains of at least 61% in order to rationalize their investment; otherwise they would eliminate the anxiety of riding the equity roller-coaster and simply invest in cash, waiting to pounce on stocks at equivalent or lower value at some point during the next bear market.

Figure 1. Example of potential equity roller coaster decision

Note that this argument is not meant to justify any sort of typical 'market timing' approach; most of these are rubbish and very difficult to adhere to for a variety of emotional reasons. Rather, it is a compelling argument for investors to seek out truly different sources of returns, such as tactical alpha strategies, CTAs, or diversified risk strategies inclusive of a wide variety of assets.

Thursday, April 11, 2013

We endorse the decisive evidence that markets and economies are complex, dynamic systems which are not reducible to normal cause-effect analysis. However, we are willing to acknowledge the likelihood that the future is likely to rhyme with the past. Thus, we believe there is substantial value in applying simple statistical models to discover average estimates of what the future may hold over meaningful investment horizons (10+ years), while acknowledging the wide range of possibilities that exist around these averages.To be crystal clear, the commentary below makes no assertions about whether markets will carry on higher from current levels. Expensive markets can get much more expensive in the intermediate term, and investors need look no further back than the late 2000s for just such an example. However, the physics of investing in expensive markets is that, at some point in the future, perhaps years from now, the market has a very high probability of trading back below current prices; perhaps far below. More importantly, investors must recognize that buying stocks at very expensive valuations will necessarily lead to future returns over the subsequent 10 - 20 years that are far below average.

There are several reasons why it may be useful to have a more robust estimate of future expected returns on stocks:

People who are approaching retirement need to estimate probable returns in order to budget how much they need to save.

A retiree's level of sustainable income is largely dictated by expected returns over the early years of retirement.

Investors of all types must make an informed decision about how best to allocate their capital among various investment opportunities.

Many studies have attempted to quantify the relationship between Shiller PE and future stock returns. Shiller PE smoothes away the spikes and troughs in corporate earnings which occur as a result of the business cycle by averaging inflation-adjusted earnings over rolling historical 10-year windows.

This study contributes substantially to research on smoothed earnings and Shiller PE by adding three new valuation indicators: the Q-Ratio, total market capitalization to GNP, and deviations from the long-term price trends. The Q-Ratio measures how expensive stocks are relative to the replacement value of corporate assets. Market capitalization to GNP accounts for the aggregate value of U.S. publicly traded business as a porportion of the size of the economy. In 2001, Warren Buffett wrote an article in Fortune where he states, "The ratio has certain limitations in telling you what you need to know. Still, it is probably the best single measure of where valuations stand at any given moment." Lastly, deviations from the long-term trend of the S&P inflation adjusted price series indicate how 'stretched' values are above or below their long-term averages.

These three measures take on further gravity when we consider that they are derived from four distinct facets of financial markets: Shiller PE focuses on the earnings statement; Q-ratio focuses on the balance sheet; market cap to GNP focuses on corporate value as a proportion of the size of the economy; and deviation from price trend focuses on a technical price series. Taken together, they capture a wide swath of information about markets.

We analyzed the power of each of these 'valuation' measures to explain inflation-adjusted stock returns including reinvested dividends over subsequent multi-year periods. Our analysis provides compelling evidence that future returns will be lower when starting valuations are high, and that returns will be higher in periods where starting valuations are low.

This last point may seem obvious, but I want to emphasize a critical point about traditional wealth management of which most investors are not aware:

Many traditional investment advisors do not account for whether markets are cheap or expensive when determining investors' long-term asset allocation. In our experience, an investor who visited a traditional Investment Advisor at the peak of the technology bubble in early 2000 would, in practice, have been advised to allocate the same proportion of his wealth to stocks as an investor who visited an Advisor near the bottom of the markets in early 2009. This despite the fact that the first investor would have had a valuation-based expected return on his stock portfolio from January 2000 of negative 2% per year, while the second investor would expect inflation-adjusted compound annual returns of 6.5%. For an investor with $1,000,000 to invest, this would represent a difference of more than $1.26 million in cumulative wealth over a decade.

Said differently, traditional wealth advice is rooted in the assumption that the best estimate of future returns is the average long-term return to stocks. No matter where markets are on the continuum from very cheap to very expensive, traditional Advisors will make recommendations on the assumption that investors should expect 6.5% inflation adjusted returns on stocks over all investment horizons.

John Hussman at Hussman funds is careful to qualify the value of this analysis: "Rich valuation is strongly associated with weak subsequent returns, but only reliably so over periods of 7-10 years. In contrast, the present syndrome of overvalued, overbought, overbullish, rising-yield conditions is typically associated with abrupt and often steep losses, but is more commonly resolved over a period of months rather than years." (Hussman, Feb 2013).Thus, we are not making a forecast of market returns over the next several months; in fact, markets could go substantially higher from here. However, over the next 10 to 15 years, markets are very likely to revert to average valuations, which are much lower than current levels. This study will demonstrate that investors should expect 6.5% returns to stocks only during those very rare occasions when the stock market passes through 'fair value' on its way to becoming very cheap, or very expensive. At all other periods, there is a better estimate of future returns than the long-term average, and this study endeavours to quantify that estimate.

Investors should be aware that, relative to meaningful historical precedents, markets are currently expensive and overbought by all three measures, indicating a strong likelihood of low inflation-adjusted returns going forward over periods as long as 20 years.

This forecast is also supported by evidence from an analysis of corporate profit margins. In a recent article, John Hussman published a long-term chart of U.S. corporate profits, which demonstrated the magnitude of upward distortion endemic in current corporate profits, which we have reproduced in Chart 1 below. Companies have clearly been benefitting from a period of extraordinary profitability.

Source: John Hussman, 2013

The profit margin picture is critically important. Jeremy Grantham recently stated, "Profit margins are probably the most mean-reverting series in finance, and if profit margins do not mean-revert, then something has gone badly wrong with capitalism. If high profits do not attract competition, there is something wrong with the system and it is not functioning properly." On this basis, we can expect profit margins to begin to revert to more normalized ratios over coming months. If so, stocks may face a future where multiples to corporate earnings are contracting at the same time that the growth in earnings is also contracting. This double feedback mechanism may partially explain why our statistical model predicts such low real returns in coming years. Caveat Emptor.

Modeling Across Many Horizons

Many studies have been published on the Shiller PE, and how well (or not) it estimates future returns. Almost all of these studies apply a rolling 10-year window to earnings as advocated by Dr. Shiller. But is there something magical about a 10-year earnings smoothing factor? Further, is there anything magical about a 10-year forecast horizon?

Kitces (2008, PDF format) demonstrated that "the safe withdrawal rate for a 30-year retirement period has shown a 0.91 correlation to the annualized real return of the portfolio over the first 15 years of the time period". So there is clearly merit in studying a 15-year forecast horizon as well. Further, the tables below will demonstrate that statistical models have the greatest explanatory power at the 15-year horizon.

This study will attempt to address the question of 'perfect forecast horizon', perfect valuation factor, and 'perfect earnings smoothing factor', by analyzing the explanatory power of earnings, the Q-Ratio, and regressed historical stock returns, over return horizons from 1 to 30 years. We will also put all of the factors together to construct an optimized model.

Table 1. below provides a snapshot of some of the results from our analysis. The table shows estimated future returns based on a coherent aggregation of several factor models over some important investment horizons.

Table 1. Factor Based Return Forecasts Over Important Investment Horizons

You can see from the table that, according to a model that incorporates valuation estimates from 4 distinct domains, and which explains over 80% of historical returns since 1871, stocks are likely to deliver 1% or less in real total returns over the next 5 to 20 years. Yikes.

Process

The purpose of our analysis was to examine several methods of capturing market valuation to determine which methods were more or less efficacious. Furthermore, we were interested in how to best integrate our valuation metrics into a coherent statistical framework that would provide us with the best estimate of future returns.Our approach relies on a common statistical technique called linear regression, which takes as inputs the valuation metrics we calculate from a variety of sources, and determines how sensitive actual future returns are to contemporaneous observations of each metric. Linear regression creates a linear function, which by definition can be described by a slope value and an intercept value, which we provide below for each metric and each forecast horizon. A further advantage of linear regression is that we can measure how confident we can be in the estimate provided by the analysis. The quantity we use to measure confidence in the estimates is called the R-Squared.The following matrices show the R-Squared ratio, regression slope, regression intercept, and current forecast returns based on a regression analysis for each valuation factor. The matrices are heat-mapped so that larger values are reddish, and small or negative values are blue-ish. Click on each image for a large version.

Matrix 1. contains a few important observations. Notably, over periods of 10-20 years, the Q ratio, very long-term smoothed PE ratios, and market capitalization / GNP ratios are equally explanatory, with R-Squared ratios around 55%. The best estimate (perhaps tautologically given the derivation) is derived from the price residuals, which simply quantify how extended prices are above or below their long-term trend.The worst estimates are those derived from trailing 12-month PE ratios (PE1 in Matrix 1 above). Many analysts quote 'Trailing 12-Months' or TTM PE ratios for the market as a tool to assess whether markets are cheap or expensive. If you hear an analyst quoting the market's PE ratio, odds are they are referring to this TTM number. Our analysis slightly modifies this measure by averaging the PE over the prior 12 months rather than using trailing cumulative earnings through the current month, but this change does not substantially alter the results.As it turns out, TTM (or PE1) Price/Earnings ratios offer the least information about subsequent returns relative to all of the other metrics in our sample. As a result, investors should be extremely skeptical of conclusions about market return prospects presented by analysts who justify their forecasts based on trailing 12-month ratios.

Forecasting Expected Returns

We expect you to be skeptical of our unconventional assertions, so below we provide the precise calculations we used to determine our estimates. The following matrices provide the slope and intercept coefficients for each regression. We have provided these in order to illustrate how we calculated the values for the final matrix below of predicted future returns to stocks.

Matrix 2. Slope of regression line for each valuation factor/time horizon pair.

Matrix 4. shows forecast future real returns over each time horizon, as calculated from the slopes and intercepts above, by using the most recent values for each valuation metric (through February 2013). For statistical reasons which are beyond the scope of this study, when we solve for future returns based on current monthly data, we utilize the rank in the equation for each metric, not the nominal value.For example, the 15-year return forecast based on the current Q-Ratio can be calculated by multiplying the current ordinal rank of the Q-Ratio (1171) by the slope from Matrix 2. at the intersection of 'Q-Ratio' and '15-Year Rtns' (-0.000086098), and then adding the intercept at the same intersection (0.119607) from Matrix 3. The result is 0.0188, or 1.88%, as you can see in Matrix 4. below at the same intersection (Q-Ratio | 15-Year Rtns).

Finally, at the bottom of the above matrix we show the forecast returns over each future horizon based on our best-fit multiple regression from the factors above. From the matrix, note that the best forecast for future real equity returns integrating all available valuation metrics is 1% or less per year over horizons covering the next 5 to 20 years. We also provided the R-squared for each multiple regression underneath each forecast; you can see that at the 15-year forecast horizon, our regression explains 80% of total returns to stocks.

Chart 2. below demonstrates how closely the model tracks actual future 15-year returns. The red line tracks the model's forecast annualized real total returns over subsequent 15-year periods using our best fit multiple regression model . The blue line shows the actual annualized real total returns over the same 15-year horizon.

You can see that 15-year "Regression Forecast" returns are -0.43% per year using market valuations as of February 28, 2013.

Putting the Predictions to the Test

A model is not very interesting or useful unless it actually does a good job of predicting the future. To that end, we tested the model's predictive capacity at some key turning points in markets over the past century or more to see how well it predicted future inflation-adjusted returns.

You can see we tested against periods during the Great Depression, the 1970s inflationary bear market, the 1982 bottom, and the middle of the 1990s technology bubble in 1995. The table also shows expected 15-year returns given market valuations at the 2009 bottom, and current levels. These are shaded green because we do not have 15-year future returns from these periods yet.Observe that, at the very bottom of the bear market in 2009, real total return forecasts never edged higher than 7%, which is only slightly above the long-term average return. This suggests that prices just approached fair value at the market's bottom; they were nowhere near the level of cheapness that markets achieved at bottoms in 1932 or 1982. As of the end of February 2013, annualized future returns over the next 15 years are expected to be less than 0 percent.

We compared the forecasts from our model with what would be expected from using just the long-term average real returns of 6.5% as a constant forecast, and demonstrated that always using the long-term average return as the future return estimate resulted in 350% more error than estimations from our multi-factor regression model over 15-year forecast horizons (1.22% annualized return error from our model vs 5.55% using the long-term average). Clearly the model offers substantially more insight into future return expectations than simple long-term averages, especially near valuation extremes.

Conclusions

The 'Regression Forecast' return predictions along the bottom of Matrix 4. are robust predictions for future stock returns, as they account for over 100 different cuts of the data, using 4 distinct valuation techniques, and utilize the most explanatory statistical relationships. The models explain up to 82% of future returns based on R-Squared, and are statistically significant at p~0. Despite the model's robustness over longer horizons, it is critical to note that even this model has very little explanatory power over horizons less than 6 or 7 years, so the model should not be used as a short-term market-timing tool.

Returns in the reddish row labeled "PE1" in Matrix 4 were forecast using just the most recent 12 months of earnings data, and correlate strongly with common "Trailing 12-Month" PE ratios cited in the media. Matrix 1. demonstrates that this trailing 12 month measure is not worth very much as a measure for forecasting future returns over any horizon. However, the more constructive results from this metric probably helps to explain the general consensus among sell-side market strategists that markets will do just fine over coming years.Just remember that these analysts have no proven ability whatsoever to predict market returns (see here, here, and here). This reality probably has less to do with the analytical ability of most analysts, and more to do with the fact that most clients would choose to avoid investing in stocks altogether if they were told to expect negative real returns over the long-term from high valuations.

Investors would do much better to heed the results of robust statistical analyses of actual market history, and play to the relative odds. This analysis suggests that markets are currently expensive, and asserts a very high probability of low returns to stocks (and possibly other asset classes) in the future. Remember, any returns earned above the average are necessarily earned at someone else's expense, so it will likely be necessary to do something radically different than everyone else to capture excess returns going forward.Those investors who are determined to achieve long-term financial objectives should be heavily motivated to seek alternatives to traditional investment options given the grim prospects outlined above. Such investors may find solace in some of the approaches related to 'tactical alpha' that we have described in a variety of prior articles.

Finally, it is the long term investor, he who most promotes the public interest, who will in practice come in for the most criticism, wherever investment funds are managed by committees, boards, or banks.

For it is the essence of his behaviour that he should be eccentric, unconventional, and rash in the eyes of average opinion.

If he is successful, that will only confirm the general belief in his rashness; and if in the short run he is unsuccessful, which is very likely, he will not receive much mercy.

Worldly wisdom teaches that it is better for reputation to fail conventionally than to succeed unconventionally.

Disclaimer

The opinions, estimates and projections contained herein are those of the author as of the date hereof and are subject to change without notice and may not reflect those of Macquarie Private Wealth Inc. (MPW). Every effort has been made to ensure that the contents of this document have been compiled or derived from sources believed to be reliable and contains information and opinions which are accurate and complete. However, neither the author nor MPW makes any representation or warranty, expressed or implied, in respect thereof, or takes any responsibility for any errors or omissions which may be contained herein or accepts any liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of or reliance on this report or its contents. Past performance may not be repeated. Information may be available to MPW which is not reflected herein. This report is not to be construed as an offer to sell or a solicitation for or an offer to buy any securities. Macquarie Private Wealth Inc. is a member of Canadian Investor Protection Fund and IIROC.

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