Stuff

A year on from the EU referendum there was some new YouGov polling for the Times this morning. The country remain quite evenly split over whether Brexit is right or wrong, 44% think leaving was the right decision, 45% the wrong decision. There is not much optimism about negotiations – only 26% expect the government to achieve a deal that is good for Britain, 31% expect a poor deal, 15% expect no deal at all (that said, most don’t think Labour would be doing any better – 24% think they’d get a better deal, 34% a worse deal, 20% that it would end up much the same).

Asked to choose between Britain having full control over immigration from Europe or British businesses having free access to trade with the EU people preferred trade by 58% to 42%. As I wrote in my last post, there’s a lot of variation in questions like this depending on the specific wording, but the overall picture suggests that when people are pushed to choose they do think trade is more important than control of immigration (though among Conservative voters the balance is the other way round).

On other matters, on the question of who would make the best Prime Minister Jeremy Corbyn now leads Theresa May by a single point – 35% to 34%. This is the first time that Corbyn has led in the question – this is partially because of a sharp drop in Theresa May’s ratings (before the snap election she was consistently in the high 40s), but is also due to a significant increase in Jeremy Corbyn’s ratings. Again, if you look at the longer term ratings he used to be consistenty down in the teens.

I should also add an update on polling about the second referendum. In my last post I mentioned the Survation poll for the Mail on Sunday which found that the balance of opinion was in favour of having a second referendum on the terms of the Brexit deal. This was the first time any poll had shown this, and I said it was worth looking to see if other polls found the same. Well, so far they haven’t – Survation also had a poll for Good Morning Britain on Monday, that also had a question on a second referendum, and it found 38% of people supported it and 57% were opposed. Tabs for that are here.

451 Responses to “More Brexit polling”

Anthony, what impact is the new weighting to 2017 election results having to these supplementary questions?

I ask because all these questions used to be weighted to a sizeable UKIP vote when weighted to 2015 election results. That vote no longer exists, so how do you ensure you have the correct balance of Tory Tories (2015 Tory AND 2017 Tory) vs UKIP Tories (2015 UKIP, 2017 Tory).

Well of course some of that 2015 UKIP vote also went to Labour so not as simple as that.

Just saying that the electorate has changed, that is why we are seeing support for Brexit decline. We have more younger votes reflected in these supplementary questions that we used to by virtue of the new weights.

So it is not really that opinion has changed that much, it is just the electorate has changed?

And how accurate is it to weight to Brexit results AND 2017 results, as that is skewing these question results towards the referendum results?

What would it look like if there was no weighting to Brexit results and just 2017 election results – would there now be a clear Remain lead with the increased labour vote share? (as most Labour voters are remain)

I posted this on the previous thread before I realised that this new one had appeared.

TOH
I was thinking of appeasers in relation to Remainers as well. I see that many are still prophesying doom despite all indications to the contrary (e.g. manufacturers’ order books the highest they’ve been for about 30 years). It seems to me to be down to their lack of confidence in the nation – same as appeasers.
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There are many good reasons to leave the EU that are nothing to do with economics, but as that seems to be the Remainers favourite ground, here are a few counter-arguments:
1) The immediate disaster that was prophesied has not materialised, though of course they may be some bumps along the road.
2) As the 5th or 6th biggest economy in the world, if we offer to drop our EU-imposed tariffs with other countries I’m sure that many will be only too happy to reciprocate. If Fox has anything about him most of this will already be sewn up despite the EU saying we can’t.
3) Our trade with the Common Market before we went in (from memory) was about 30% of our total. There were only 6 countries in it then, though 3 of those were big (Germany, France, Italy). I believe the figure went up to the high 50s% some years ago, but is now down to 44% of our total, and that’s with 27 countries! Therefore the trend in our economy is already to trade more with the rest of the world. If we can drop external tariffs this can only increase.
4) Any company worth its salt will already be seeking new suppliers and markets. By the time the negotiations are wrapped up industry will be ready. Those that aren’t deserve to fold.
etc etc.
However, there are much more important things than economics.

Think the most interesting part of the poll is
”Asked to choose between Britain having full control over immigration from Europe or British businesses having free access to trade with the EU people preferred trade by 58% to 42%.”
That seems pretty emphatic to me, I appreciate all the usual caveats apply but it does seem the economic arguments are taking hold in the UK population as a whole.
The question is will the Government take this on board or will they look at their own conservative constituency, where the result is the other way, and decide to placate them.

@Jonesinbangor
“GB & NI has, in 2017, a very volatile electorate.
My rather anecdotal observations tell me there is a large case of “Bregret” doing the rounds.
What impact this has? I don’t know.
Is there a mandate for hard Brexit? I say no.
The EU know this.
June 23rd, 2017 at 11:38 pm”

Agree that the electorate may well have changed their minds on Brexit, which might be why many on the leave side do not want a second referendum. They had been waiting 43 years to see the UK leave the EU and they don’t want to see their dreams ended.

It does worry me when some people say the economics don’t matter and that in the long run the UK will do well. Therefore crashing out of the EU on WTO terms without a trade deal with the EU would be ok. This does seem to indicate a willingness to see people suffer, just so those who want Brexit can fulfill their wishes. It is clear from what Philip Hammond and many other MP’s are saying that they will not accept a ‘hard’ Brexit and that there must be a deal with the EU on single market/customs area access.

If it gets to the point in the Brexit process where it looks like the UK economy would suffer after Brexit, then i could see overwhelming demand for a second referendum. There is no way a minority government and opposition parties could ignore this demand. Therefore i am 90% convinced there will be a second referendum before the end of 2018, if there is no a general election beforehand which sees a large Tory majority.

This is not the place for a debate on brexit economics, so I’ll keep this brief:

1. We are still in the single maket! But already, as result of prospect of leaving, growth has sunk from best to worst in G7, and to 28 out of 28 in EU.

2. Under WTO rules, if we drop tariffs to some countries, we must drop them to all. So you want us unprotected. eg we let in Chinese steel, they let in UK steel: result no UK steel industry.

3. Of course trade with fastest growing economies has gone up – China’s economy was comparatively tiny in 1973, ditto India etc. And EU tariffs with ROW have been hugely reduced. But we have achieved this while in the EU: there is nothing to suggest we can do better outside the EU.

4. Good companies will already be exploiting all export opportunities.

In short, hard brexit/WTO would mean clobbering our biggest, easiest, must lucrative export markets with no prospect of replacing them.

“I think you should be aware that appeasement was the favoured policy of the same sort of elements that now scream for brexit.”

And your point is? I was well aware of that, thank you. Clearly they were wrong in the 30s but right now.IMO. I suspect those who are still alive from that period, having more experience voted strongly for brexit, the polls suggest so.

Pete B your 11.30 post.

Well said, I totally agree, and yes there are more important things than economics. For me leaving the EU is mainly about regaining our sovereignty.

I wake up this morning to see reports that Andrea Leadsom think that broadcasters need to “be a bit more patriotic” when reporting on the Brexit negotiations.

So what does she want. No scrutiny? For us to be told not to worry about ours and our children’s future and that it’s all going to be great, we’ll get 350million a week for our NHS and Britain will be great again.

Maybe the BBC and other news channels should change their opening credits to the sound of the national anthem with pictures of Theresa May standing in front of a huge “strong and stable in the national interest banner”

This really is the last straw. The country has lost the plot.

Sorry if this post annoys Brexiteers on here but It’s all a bit rubbish at the moment and this country and its government are laughing stocks.

Apologies in advance to all who dislike these types of,posts but a debate about the finer points of Brexit details seems to me a bit farcical when we’re being flushed down the toilet – in the national interest of course.

AW
“Jeremy Corbyn now leads Theresa May by a single point – 35% to 34%. This is the first time that Corbyn has led in the question – this is partially because of a sharp drop in Theresa May’s ratings (before the snap election she was consistently in the high 40s), but is also due to a significant increase in Jeremy Corbyn’s ratings. ”
With the greatest respect, Athony, this is a tautology. The reverse in rating is (a) because he ran and good and she ran a rotten campaign, (b) he showed up and she didn’t in Kensington, and (c) she is making a dog’s Brexit of the negotiations in Brussels, and peeps thing he couldn’t do worse, especially over a generous and realistic deal for EU residents in the UK.

Why does a poll reflect support for one politician over another? In polling, rather than political terms, I think because a majority begin to think that that politician – regardless of other characteristics or commentary – has begun to reflect their reading of the reality in the state of the nation, and what is needed fo the nation’s good, and when the nation’s vital interests are at stake this overrides incombency.

We have now entered the most important negotiation the UK has faced for the last 50 years following a referendum which was clearly won and then a negotiating strategy which was voted on and accepted by both houses of parliament. I think our neotiators have every right to expect the support of our media.

I have to say the behaviour of remainers now is unbelievable. Frankly it disgust me.

TOH
“What utter tosh”
Is it though? It’s no good just spluttering outrage into the ether. – tell us why you think, beyond the blanket of fog as to what the Govt. Brexit team intend, would be in the interests of a country whose economic success has been the reason for high and high quality labour migration, and now has to negotiate a way out of a damaging exit from a well legislated and mutually beneficial relationship with the EU based on the longest lasting and most peaceful treaty the country has ever entered into.

Comments here regarding the partiality or otherwise of the BBC put me in mind of the Radio 5 Live footy ‘phone-ins.

In the latter case, after a drawn game between Reds & Blues that the commentators regarded as a fair result, Blues and Reds supporters queue up on the airwaves to complain that the BBC coverage ignored dirty play by the other team and obvious penalties that should have been awarded to their own.

Perhaps this kind of reaction & its equivalent in the political sphere is an indication that the much maligned BBC is getting things broadly right?

The YouGov article downplays the change but looking at the flow of voters into/out of each party I think it has made a significant difference because CON have picked up more of the most extreme Brexiters and LAB have picked up a few of the more hardcore Remainers (possibly for tactical ABT reasons). I’ve always believed Brexit was a distribution (possibly more rectangular than normal) with a forced R/L split (ie for many people it was a close call but you couldn’t tick a “maybe” box!). Therefore CON’s 10% increase in Leave is the more extreme Brexiters and this will make their changes more extreme along the lines you suggest. Smaller but still important opposite effect for LAB.

Happy to tell you what i think. I have done many times but i will repeat it for you. I believe it is in Britains interest to leave the EU as soon as possible, preferably with a mutually beneficial deal economically. That of course depends on them as it takes two to negotiate sensibly. So far the omens are not good, just look at their demand that the ECJ should be responsible for overseeing the rights of EU nationals once we have left the EU. Totally unacceptable demand on any nation. Its like the demands that the Austro-Hungarian Empire made on Serbia in 1914.

Why should we leave the EU, that’s easy it’s an organisation which is bound to fail and as it breaks up the likelyhood of war in Europe is high. We should get out while we can and become a sovereign state once more. We will then be free to enter into trade deals across the World and increase our prosperity as Europe importance in the World declines. Like martin Luther King who I much admire ” I have a dream”

TOH
“Why should we leave the EU, that’s easy it’s an organisation which is bound to fail and as it breaks up the likelyhood of war in Europe is high.”
The problem with your argument is that it sets out the very good reasons for staying.
Yes, back to the rugby. If Corbyn would guarantee that he will introduce territorial TV coverage for all our international sports, the coming GE will be done and dusted.

The Other Howard,
” For me leaving the EU is mainly about regaining our sovereignty.”

But that’s the problem. Sovereignty is only obtained by engaging your ‘enemy’. Not by running away. Thats why Churchill would have been pro EU membership. The arena for obtaining UK interest and power is by being a member and working from inside. It always has been and successive UK PMs have bent the EU to their way of thinking.

“We have now entered the most important negotiation the UK has faced for the last 50 years following a referendum which was clearly won and then a negotiating strategy which was voted on and accepted by both houses of parliament. I think our neotiators have every right to expect the support of our media.”

I think you post this stuff to wind us all up. The referendum was not clearly won, that is the root of current problems. On asking for a second opinion, May was even more firmly rebuffed. There is no consensus on Brexit, and that is why there is a problem. No negotiating strategy has been outlined, so certainly it can not have been agreed, but equally to the point, no new strategy has been published following the election where May lost her parliamentary majority.

If media reflect the public will, then they will attack the government as unrepresentative of the people. I know they are not representative of the public, but there is certainly no reason why they should slavishly follow the government line.

” preferably with a mutually beneficial deal economically”

Thats another thing. If negotiations fail, the downside is far more negative for the UK than EU. It might even be positive, long term, for the EU. It probably is.

Your responses to Tonybig are very instructive. I have disagreed with your posts about everything for several years but I have always thought you a democrat. The fact you now seem to want to censor the media so that they shouldn’t be allowed to question the Government over Brexit because only 48% of the population voted against is deeply troubling.

You compared Remainers with Appeasers earlier. Who do you suggest you should compare someone who would like to censor the media to?

Is there any good reason why it’s bad for media now to challenge Govt. on leaving the EU, but it was ok for media to challenge Govt. over being in the EU when that had also been settled in a referendum?

Agreed. Crush the saboteurs. Our judges are the enemy of the state. . A Government that wanted to by pass Parliament over any Brexit deal. Etc Etc.
It’s unacceptable and Brexiteers need to understand this.Its called living in a democracy.

“the EU – it’s an organisation which is bound to fail and as it breaks up the likelyhood of war in Europe is high”

Why is it “bound to fail”? Its looking a lot more solid than a few years ago. Europhobes have been saying this for years but i see no signs –
if anyhting its the union of the UK and Norn Iron that looks shakier.

And why is the likely hood of war in europe high? between whom? i can see absolutely no plausible scenario where this would happen. In fact the most likely cause of armed conflict – and its still highly implausible – is between the EU and a brexitied UK.

Let’s appreciate first that anyone posting here is likely to be interested in polling, and maybe therefore interested in ascribing more weight to the practice that the average person in the street might.

Having said that, given the public perception and/or the reality of polling in relation to recent political votes, should polling (short of a formal nationwide referendum) be seen as an adequate mandate for any sense of “the will of the people” on determining the “type” of Brexit sought, or indeed anything else?

It is amazing in the political whirl, how those who seem to have few answers on policy, conclude that it shouldn’t be discussed. Would make a good polling question though. Should the government have to defend its policy on Brexit or be left alone?

“Having said that, given the public perception and/or the reality of polling in relation to recent political votes, should polling (short of a formal nationwide referendum) be seen as an adequate mandate for any sense of “the will of the people” on determining the “type” of Brexit sought, or indeed anything else?”

How rediculous leaving the EU is not running away, It’s breaking free, I don’t want to be a citizen of a vassal state in an undemocratic, German dominated superstate which as I say is bound to fail.

It’s typical of some Remainers to say the referendum was not won clearly. Of course it was, I really do find this attitude so undemocratic, it really is. far from me trying to wind people up it’s some Remainers who are doing that. Unbelievable attitudes.

I have always considered myself a Democrat which is why i expect the people and the media to get behind our negotiators now we are engaged in the most important negotiation in the last 50 years what’s undemocratic about that. IT’s patriotic of course and that’ what we need in spades now.

Given the dire and uncertain results of the Brexit referendum, and its proneness to fake news and politically driven misinformatiom the process deserves all the scrutiny it can get, This was especially so when a substantial par of the vote was vulnerable to conscious manipulaltion by a political elite.
The worst form of government according to the Greeks is that of ochlocracy, and the second demagogy. In a modern infxormation age, and particularly in the hands of politicians who know precisely what they are doing, scrutiny, and possibly legislation, needs to examine information management as a factor in poliitical management generally.
I would expect that self-regulated polling and the willingness of the industry to make public its methods and significance would come rather well out of the mix.

I will leave you all in peace now, as I have things to do and my blood pressure won’t take anymore at the moment. The Rugby was very disappointing.
Still smiling as I’ve just remembered we are another day nearer the moment we leave. Looking forward to it.

IMHO the only time that the job of the media is to ‘get behind the government’ is at the time of the most extreme examples of war-time emergency when the very existence of the nation and the lives and liberties of the people are imperilled.

At all other times the most important job of the media is surely to question and challenge, on behalf of all of us, those that we chose to govern us. Otherwise how else will they be held to account?

Perhaps this is another fault line between the older generation and the younger? It would be fascinating to have some polling on this, as I am sure there will be many who agree with you, but also many, like me, who disagree with equal passion.

Personally, I think this is a case of Leadsom trying to intimidate but also getting her excuses in early…