25/10/2014 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bet – Rosehill

Feature racing is off to the spelling paddock in Sydney as the racing spotlight is focused on Melbourne, but eight races will be run and won at Rosehill this Saturday, with the intriguing runner being Aomen in the Filante Handicap (1500m). The former Hong Kong galloper impressed first up at Randwick when leading all the way to win. His aim is the Emirates Stakes (1600m) en route to the Railway Stakes (1600m) over at Ascot in a few weeks, so this race will be a good guide as to whether or not he warrants a trip to Melbourne first off, then perhaps Perth.

Back Me: Good race for the three year olds. I think the winner will come from one of the two fillies down the bottom. Leaning towards the more experience Wine Tales (Best Odds: $3.00), who resumed over 1400m at Randwick and worked home very strongly in a slowly run race when second to Slightly Sweet, who started favourite in a stakes race prior. Her form two back when splitting Delectation and Inkling over 1200m here is a really good form line and good enough to suggest she can win here.Big Danger:Alegria (Best Odds: $2.90) wasn’t wanted in betting when making her debut at Kensington, and after just a fair beginning and then getting held up, she didn’t look likely, but Bowman got her into the clear and she just savaged the line over the final furlong to win and win like a horse going places. This is a good test for her so soon, but she looks very likely.Roughie:Modoc (Best Odds: $13.00) has been racing against the best of the best Sydney has to offer in this age bracket, and he has been far from disgraced. He ran in the Brian Crowley (1200m) last week and ran a credible seventh to Kuro, who is now a leading contender for the Group l Coolmore Stud (1200m) next Saturday, so that reads quite well against this lot and he gets his chance to win.

Back Me:Larrikan Prince (Best Odds: $17.00) has showed no gate speed in his two public appearances, the first of those in a barrier trial and then in the Breeders Plate (1000m) when a closing fifth to Vancouver. If the rain comes, he is bred to swim, so keep that in mind, but even without rain, he is a chance due to the fact he has got the race experience under his belt.Big Danger:Furnaces (Best Odds: $1.70) is a well bred colt for Godolphin who showed plenty of ability in his lone trial performance, which ended up being a three length win at Warwick Farm, and running really good time, easily the fastest of the two year olds that morning. Looks to have talent and finds a winnable debut race.Roughie:Mine Two (Best Odds: $9.00) wasn’t too bad at Randwick on debut behind Pierrette, making up ground from midfield to finish just over a length from the winner. Drawn well, tumbles down in the weights thanks to the claim for Claire Nutman, has race experience and did show ability in the trials, so she rates as a chance.

Back Me: Looks a really good race for Forever Crazy (Best Odds: $9.50). She wasn’t wanted in betting for the Angst Stakes (1600m) but gee she was good there without a great deal of luck, running fourth to Neena Rock, who is going to be competitive during the Melbourne Spring. Up to 2000m suits, back on her home track, significant drop in class, looks extremely hard to beat.Big Danger:Grand Marshall (Best Odds: $3.00) only has the one pace, but he keeps at it all the way in his races, like he did two back when narrowly beaten by Koukram. He just plugged after receiving every chance by Bowman, then he went to Randwick and was no match for all the way winner Order Of The Sun, who broke the 2000m Randwick track record. He rarely wins, but he will be right there if any of the others are off their game.Roughie:Saigon Tea (Best Odds: $7.50) also ran in the Angst and she was good very late in the race when eighth to Neena Rock. She got totally outpaced and dropped out to last in the run, and was still last with a furlong to go, but she picked up and was very good through the line, so stepping up to 2000m should also suit her, and any give in the ground would seriously enhance her prospects.

Back Me:Spurtonic (Best Odds: $4.60) is another interesting runner engaged here. He hasn’t been seen since the Liverpool City Cup (1300m) when finishing last to Terravista. He has been given a good break, trialled a couple of times to prepare for his return to racing, and on his best form, he’d give this a shake. Four starts back he was beaten a half length in an Epsom behind Boban, Streama etc etc. That’s good enough to beat these.Big Danger: The old boy Monton (Best Odds: $3.80) still retains his zest for racing and was very good when second to the top tip when coming from off the speed and chasing late to only go down a half length. His record at Rosehill is fantastic and up to 1500m should only be beneficial for him, so he certainly isn’t out of this.Roughie:I’m Imposing (Best Odds: $5.00) is back to the track after a pretty solid Autumn/Winter prep. He saluted over the mile at Randwick before running well at Listed level at his next two before being tipped out. He was given a quiet time in his barrier trial behind Sidestep, but given on this corresponding meeting last year where the leaders dominated, he can be a chance from the paint draw.

Back Me:Moorluv (Best Odds: $8.00) was completely unwanted in betting when resuming at Canterbury, drifting out to $8.50 from $5, but gee she caught the eye late when fourth to Transfers, making up a stack of ground late from last on the home turn. She proved in the Autumn she can be competitive level and four starts back she was beaten less than a length by Rock Sturdy, a subsequent Group ll winner and was going to be favourite for the Epsom. She should take some beating on her home track.Big Danger:Made To Order (Best Odds: $7.50) was a super winner fresh last time in over 1350m here, beating home My Sabeel, who won at stakes level not long after and mixed it with the likes of Catkins and Arabian Gold, so that fresh form line reads outstanding. Trainer Chris Waller did state after that win that he’d keep the mare to shorter trips, but he stepped her out to the staying trips again and she failed, so she has been freshened up again and runs here over 1400m off the back of a solid trial here a couple of weeks back. Flies fresh and on her home track, so expect her to run boldly fresh.Roughie:Shanina (Best Odds: $51.00) has always threatened to win a race like this and she sent the alarms off two back at Warwick Farm with an eye catching sixth from the back to Peace Force, then had too much weight on her back last time out at Canberra, so forgive her for that. Back down in the weights, and all she needs is a genuine speed to launch off from to be a threat here.

Back Me: With the rail out six metres at Rosehill, generally horses up on the speed are advantaged, especially at the 1100m start, so for that reason I will put Biloxi (Best Odds: $9.00) on top. His two runs back from a freshen up have been very good, in particular last time out when he ran second to Diamond Oasis. That form will have been confirmed or denied by the time this race comes along given Diamond Oasis ran on Friday night at the Valley. Biloxi should kick up from the good draw and either lead or get the box seat trail. Whatever the case, he looks hard to beat.Big Danger:Alberto Magic (Best Odds: $4.80) looked to keep his unbeaten run this prep in tact at Warwick Farm but just found Senta De Noche a touch too good for him on that particular afternoon. However, he gets the weight pull now, barrier draw advantage and will be up on the speed, so he will take some beating.Roughie: Green Beret (Best Odds: $5.00) is back to the races after a good campaign last time in, which finished off with a narrow second to Diamond Oasis at Randwick. That horse went on to win another race in Sydney and then won last night at the Valley, so the form stacks up really well. Trialled super and the fact that Joe Pride hasn’t put a claiming apprentice on the horse tells me the galloper is flying and ready to win.

Back Me: Going to put Underestimation (Best Odds: $5.50) on top. He has been a real hit and miss galloper throughout his career, and that remained the case when he joined the Tony McEvoy yard. First up he bolted in, got beat next time out, then bolted in again before running second last as a $1.70 favourite. He is now in the Hawkesbury stable and has trialled twice, the first of which came in Adelaide when second to Hucklebuck, and we saw how good he was on the weekend, and then the second trial was behind Famous Seamus, who runs in the Manikato, so all of that for a benchmark 80…looks very well placed.Big Danger:Moral Victory (Best Odds: $9.00) is back with Tim Martin after a solid Winter prep with Steven Wilson. He was last seen over the 1500m here in August when midfield to Black Revolver and by then, it looked like he had enough. Spelled, resumes without a trial, but has an excellent fresh record and will be up on the speed, so in a tricky race he is a definite chance.Roughie:Road To Summer (Best Odds: $26.00) deserves his crack at the city again after stringing together four wins in very impressive style, with the most impressive being last time out at Muswellbrook in the Denman Cup (1280m) when leading all the way at a good tempo and just continued to find. He is very badly weighted, mainly due to his white hot form, but he will make sure this is a true contest and will give you a great sight at odds.

Back Me: He has to step up a bit in class, but you can’t beat winning form and that is what Boss Lane (Best Odds: $5.00) brings here. He was dreadful first up here behind Turquoise King (subsequently stakes placed), then trainer Ron Quinton backed him up seven days later and thanks to a gun Sam Clipperton steer, the horse got up to beat Brook Road (subsequently stakes placed). He then ran again at Randwick and was again on the speed and too good for his rivals, this time being Group l performer Telepathic, so despite rising to 95 company from 80, the form around him just reads so well.Big Danger:Casual Choice (Best Odds: $10.00) comes back to racing after a pretty solid winter prep without winning. He last ran on the Kensington track in the July Sprint when fourth to Hurrara, starting odds on, so he can be a nightmare for punters, but a couple of recent barrier trials behind some handy gallopers tells me he is back in good order and forward enough to sprint well fresh.Roughie:Havana (Best Odds: $14.00) was smashed in betting when resuming for the new stable at Kensington, but was simply just horrendous when last to That’s A Good Idea, who went on to run second to a star in Deep Field on the weekend, so the form lines read well, but Havana’s run was very poor. But on his best form, he’d be very competitive here. Hoping a drop in class and on his home track can spark improvement

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All odds are subject to change. Odds listed are correct at the time of the latest update.