I’m referring, of course, to my abysmal performance in predicting this year’s Academy Award winners. In years past, I haven’t written a follow-up to my Oscars preview. For the most part, this is because I always did pretty well and I’ve never been one to be all that inclined toward victory laps.

This year, however, was probably my worst prognosticative performance in my entire decade-plus as a professional movie-knower. I have never been as off as I was this year, so I thought it might be fun to unpack it.

For the record, I correctly predicted 14 of 24 awards. Considering the wild unpredictability we experienced this year, that’s not a terrible number. Compared to last year – when I went 21-for-24 – it IS a terrible number.

I did get a fair amount right. Three of the four acting categories. Best director and cinematography (both Alfonso Cuarón). Adapted screenplay and best song. Both animated film categories and feature documentary and foreign language film. Costume and makeup and production designs.

But that’s not what we’re here for. Let’s take a look at what went wrong.