There’s a storm brewing over Washington –
literally and figuratively. Adverse weather conditions, including heavy wind
and rain (turning into snow and ice further north), have made a mess of the
mid-Atlantic. But that’s nothing compared to the dark clouds circling over D.C.
in the wake of Monday’s 27-6 loss to the San Francisco 49ers (–5.5 away).
Washington fell to 3-8 SU and ATS after that embarrassing performance.

Good thing there’s no need to travel for
Sunday’s game against the New York Giants (4-7 SU and ATS). But you can imagine
how unhappy the locals will be if they have to watch yet another stinker of a
game with temperatures approaching the freezing mark – it’s a Sunday Night Football matchup (8:30 p.m.
ET, NBC) in December, folks. At least the forecast only calls for a slight
chance of rain, although this storm might have other ideas.

When we last
joined our heroes from the nation’s capital, they were 1.5-point home
favorites on the earliest NFL lines for Sunday’s game. That lasted about as
long as Alec Baldwin’s talk show. By the time people woke up on Tuesday, the
Giants were favored by anywhere between one and 2.5 points, depending on which
online sportsbooks you shopped at. Our consensus reports show 63 percent
support for Big Blue.

And why would anyone bet on Washington at
this point? QB Robert Griffin III just had the second-worst start of anyone in
Week 11, posting minus-109 Total DYAR (minus-109 passing, minus-29 rushing)
against the Niners and eating four sacks. LB Ahmad Brooks had two of those
sacks; he told CSN Washington after the game that he didn’t think Griffin was
healthy enough to be playing.

Doctor
in the House

If you believe the pundits, Brooks is being
a little extreme in his diagnosis. I’m not so sure. The nattering nabobs point
to the fact that Griffin isn’t limping like he was during last year’s playoff
drive. But there’s no question that Griffin isn’t as mobile as he was before
undergoing reconstructive knee surgery, and when you combine that with all the
abuse his body takes running the read option, it’s getting rather uncomfortable
watching Griffin get fed to the wolves every week.

Then you have the emotional toil Griffin is
going through. Between the reduction in his performance level and the increase
in losing, Griffin has gone from Undisputed Lord of All Things to The Guy You
Hate a Little More Every Week. “People are trying to character assassinate
me," Griffin told reporters after Monday’s loss. And he’s right. It’s the
national pastime, after all.

DVOA,
Four Capital Letters

The Week 12 DVOA ratings are in at Football
Outsiders, and despite the poor results from Week 11, Washington remains locked
in at No. 29 in overall efficiency (No. 19 offense, No. 24 defense, No. 32
special teams). The Giants moved up one spot to No. 26 (No. 31 offense, No. 5
defense, No. 7 special teams) following their competitive 24-21 loss to the
Dallas Cowboys as 2.5-point home faves.

We’ve also got a fresh update on Giants
center Jim Cordle: out for the season with a partially torn left patella
tendon. Cordle was already filling in for David Bass and not doing a very good
job of it, so his loss isn’t nearly devastating enough for me to switch my pick
to Washington. It might take a white-out blizzard to keep New York from winning
this game.