Thursday, April 2, 2015

March 2015 Casualties Increase In Iraq Due To Tikrit Operation

Reported violence in Iraq increased in March 2015 mainly due
to the successful government operation to clear Tikrit and central Salahaddin. Before
that the number of attacks, dead and wounded had all been going down in
February. That now appears to be a temporary dip as March’s statistics are much
more like December 2014 and January 2015. Despite March’s figures violence is
still down from the height of the summer of 2014.

There were 688 security incidents reported in the press in
March 2015. That was slightly up from February’s 655, but lower than January’s
817. The latter was a spike however as previous to that there were 606 attacks in
November and 689 in December.

Violence In Iraq 2014-2015 By Month

Month

Incidents

Dead

Wounded

Jan 14

1,014

1,483

2,880

Feb

955

1,285

2,531

Mar

992

1,606

2,889

Apr

990

1,456

2,924

May

905

1,462

2,602

Jun

905

4,172

3,701

Jul

937

2,299

3,319

Aug

815

3,211

3,623

Sep

713

2,230

3,139

Oct

755

2,435

3,170 + 1,230

Nov

606

1,931

3,089

Dec

689

2,032

3,106

2014

10,276

25,602

38,203

Jan 15

817

2,308

2,895

Feb

655

1,730

2,298

Mar

688

2,434

2,521

Avg Violence In Iraq
By Quarter 2014-2015

Quarter

Incidents

Dead

Wounded

1st Qtr 2014

32.9

48.6

92.2

2nd Qtr 2014

30.7

77.9

101.3

3rd Qtr 2014

26.7

84.1

109.5

4th Qtr 2014

22.2

69.5

115.1

2014

28.1

70.1

104.6

1st Qtr 2015

24.0

71.9

85.7

Despite March’s increase the number of incidents have been
going down since the start of 2014. In the first quarter of last year there
were an average of 32.9 incidents per day. January for example had 1,014
attacks alone. The second quarter there were 30.7 attacks per day, going down
to 26.7 the third quarter, 22.2 the fourth, and 24.0 the first quarter of 2015.
In the first half of 2014 the insurgency was ramping up its attacks to soften
up targets in preparation for its summer offensive. Since then there have only
been two big months of incidents in August 2014 and January 2015 when the
Islamic State launched major operations against the Kurds and in Anbar and
Salahaddin.

As usual almost all of the violence was concentrated in the
middle of Iraq. Baghdad was the most violent in March with 235 attacks,
followed by 122 in Salahaddin, 114 in Anbar, 100 in Ninewa, 59 in Diyala, 25 in
Kirkuk, and 22 in Babil. There were also eight incidents in Basra and two in
Maysan, which were probably not related to the insurgency, plus a rare attack
in Irbil when the Islamic State (IS) fired
rockets into the governorate. Otherwise southern and northern Iraq’s
Kurdistan have largely escaped the violence from the militants in recent
months. In the south what shootings and bombing do occur are largely due to
political, tribal and criminal disputes.

Those attacks led to 2,430 deaths and 2,371 wounded. The
former broke down to 43 Sahwa, 59 Peshmerga, 260 members of the Iraqi Security
Forces (ISF), 1,098 Hashd al-Shaabi, and 970 civilians. The latter was made up
of 1 U.S. soldier, 38 Sahwa, 139 Peshmerga, 242 Hashd, 388 ISF, and 1,563
civilians. The American soldier was wounded at a training base in Baghdad when
he was fired at on March
11. 1,060 of the Hashd dead were in Salahaddin due to the Tikrit operation.

Like attacks, casualties have been declining since the
summer offensive. In the second quarter of 2014 for example, there was an
average of 77.9 deaths per day. That went up to 84.1 in the next quarter before
going down to 69.5 the fourth quarter and 71.9 the first quarter of 2015. The
average number of injured have been going in the same direction. The fourth
quarter had the highest average of 115.1, but that was because in October the
Kurdistan Regional Government released figures for Peshmerga losses since June.
Otherwise the quarterly averages would have been going down from the third
quarter of 2014 to the first quarter of 2015.

Salahaddin was the deadliest province during the month.
There were 1,323 deaths there due to the fighting to retake Tikrit. That was
followed by 358 in Baghdad, 254 in Anbar, 200 in Ninewa, 137 in Kirkuk, 114
in Diyala, 25 in Babil, 18 in Basra, and one in Maysan.

IS has been steadily increasing the number of Vehicle Borne
Improvised Explosive Devices (VBIEDs) after a two year low in December. That
month there were 21 car bombs. After that there were 45 in January, 52 in
February, and 63 in March. That averaged out to 2.0 VBIEDs per day last month.
Many more were destroyed before they reached their targets. IS has been using
these car bombs against both the government forces in offensive and offensive
operations, as well as a return to terrorist attacks upon civilians. On March
23 and 30
for example shops and markets
were bombed in Baghdad. Then on March 31,
the 8th Army Division base in northeast Ramadi was hit. The
intensity of these bombings was also highlighted on March
11 when 17 suicide car
bombs went off across Ramadi during heavy fighting there. That occurred
during the middle of a nine day stretch of at least one VBIED per day from
March 7-15.

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About Me

Musings On Iraq was started in 2008 to explain the politics, economics, security, culture and history of Iraq via original articles and interviews. If you wish to contact me personally my email is: motown67@aol.com