Ohio's state tests slated to get much harder in two years

Plain Dealer file Students in districts and charter schools across Ohio will be taking more difficult state tests in two years, and the score needed to pass will be higher than it is now.

CLEVELAND, Ohio -- Ohio is about to raise the bar on its state tests for students in third through eighth grade. And just about everyone is predicting that far fewer of those students will be able to make the leap to a passing score.

Passage rates are expected to drop an average of 30 to 40 percentage points based on what's already happening in other states, such as Kentucky.

Educators say they expect the tumble because of a double whammy that hits two years from now. The tests are going to get a lot harder. And the scores students need to pass -- officially known as cut scores -- are going to be higher.

"This is going to give us a more accurate idea of how kids are progressing," said Aaron Churchill, an analyst with the Thomas B. Fordham Institute in Columbus. "But in the short term, there's going to be an adjustment period, and it's going to be tough."

The stage was set for change when Ohio and 44 other states agreed to use a single set of standards, known as the Common Core, to determine what students need to learn in key subjects. Now, two groups of statesare using $360 million from the federal government to design math and English tests for measuring that learning. They also will set the cut scores.

Under Ohio's current system, scores range across five levels: advanced, accelerated, proficient, basic and limited. The top three are considered passing.

But the experts are projecting that only scores at the top two levels will make the cut when the new tests are rolled out in 2015. That means all those students in the middle won't be passing anymore.

Preliminary results for last May's eighth-grade math test show how that might play out for Cleveland-area districts.

If the cut score were set where it's expected to be, 77 percent of Rocky River eighth-graders -- instead of 96 percent -- would pass the math test. At the other extreme, 4 percent of East Cleveland eighth-graders -- instead of 37 percent -- would pass.

The impact would vary for local districts depending on how many of their students fall into that middle proficient level now.

Some of the biggest differences in passage rates on the math test would be in rural districts with small enrollments, such as Ledgemont and Newbury, and inner-ring suburbs like Bedford and Parma. More-affluent suburbs, such as Bay Village and Orange, would take less of a hit.

Statewide, a little over a third of public-school students now score at the middle proficient level on state tests, according to a recentanalysis by the Akron Beacon Journal. That's nearly a half-million students who are passing now but who would probably fail the new tests.

Many publicly funded charter schools, which are concentrated in the state's big cities, would see huge drops since more than 40 percent of their students are in the proficient group now, the analysis found.

Other studies forecast similar outcomes nationwide.

District

Percent passing
grade 8 math
last year

Percent projected to
pass new test

Rocky River

96

77

Solon

98

74

Bay Village

94

72

Hudson

96

69

Highland

92

68

Cuyahoga Heights

91

67

Orange

89

67

Wadsworth

93

66

Independence

98

66

Westlake

95

66

Chagrin Falls

95

66

Avon Lake

94

66

Brecksville-Broadview Hts.

96

66

James A Garfield

95

65

West Geauga

94

65

Olmsted Falls

92

62

Avon

93

62

Revere

95

61

Coventry

95

60

Beachwood

97

59

Norton

92

59

Manchester

90

59

Twinsburg

92

58

North Olmsted

93

58

Green

95

57

Kenston

95

56

Copley-Fairlawn

91

56

Aurora

96

55

North Royalton

93

54

Chardon

91

54

Tallmadge

91

54

Nordonia Hills

93

53

Strongsville

90

52

Mentor Ev Sd

88

52

Buckeye

92

51

Oberlin

86

48

Stow-Munroe Falls

85

47

Mayfield

83

47

Woodridge

83

46

Black River

94

46

Kirtland

95

45

Medina

87

45

Willoughby-Eastlake

87

44

Fairview Park

88

44

Cloverleaf

88

44

Madison

89

44

Amherst

91

44

Perry

96

43

Field

87

43

Cardinal

92

42

Rootstown

82

42

Brunswick

87

41

Cuyahoga Falls

87

41

Berea

84

41

Lakewood

83

39

Keystone

84

39

Columbia

87

39

Waterloo

86

39

Shaker Heights

72

38

Wickliffe

80

37

Firelands

88

37

Kent

81

37

Riverside

88

36

Crestwood

84

35

North Ridgeville

80

34

Barberton

76

34

Southeast

85

34

Parma

83

33

Vermilion

81

32

Midview

83

31

Fairport Harbor

78

31

Springfield

81

30

Berkshire

81

30

Elyria

76

29

Sheffield-Sheffield Lake

85

29

Clearview

83

29

Wellington

77

26

Brooklyn

74

23

S.Euclid-Lyndhurst

70

22

Ravenna

70

22

Streetsboro

83

21

Windham Ev Sd

70

20

Mogadore

88

20

Clev.Hts.-Univ.Hts

61

19

Newbury

84

18

Akron

65

18

Garfield Heights

58

16

Maple Heights

55

15

Richmond Heights

56

14

Bedford

75

14

Painesville

57

13

Euclid

59

12

Cleveland

48

9

Ledgemont

77

8

Lorain

48

6

Warrensville Heights

36

4

East Cleveland

37

4

UCLA's National Center for Research on Evaluation, Standards & Student Testing looked into where the new tests will fall on a "depth of knowledge" scale, which goes from basic comprehension and remembering facts up to in-depth analysis and connecting ideas. The researchers concluded that the tests will demand knowledge at the top two of four levels.

But 17 states that now have relatively challenging tests -- Ohio among them -- are mostly operating at the bottom two levels, according to a study by the RAND Corp.

About 80 percent of Ohio's current test questions are multiple choice, giving students a one-in-three or one-in-four chance of simply guessing a correct answer.

The tests based on the Common Core standards promise to be very different.

When educators talk about the standards, the word that pops up over and over is "deeper" -- deeper teaching, deeper learning, deeper knowledge.

Eric Gordon, head of the Cleveland schools, gave an example of how that would play out on a high school test question.

Now, students might be asked to read the Rev. Dr.Martin Luther King Jr.'s letter written from the Birmingham, Ala., jail and then write their opinions about it, he said. Under Common Core, students might instead be asked to write about why King made several references to Socrates in the letter.

Denver Daniel, director of data and testing for the Parma district, said how the tests will be taken -- on computers instead of with paper and pencil -- opens the door for a huge change.

"The new tests are going to be simulation-based," he said. "It's taking everything to an entirely different level."

In math, students might see a centimeter ruler and an inch ruler next to each other on the screen and be asked to slide a cursor along them to build a model for a ratio rule, he said.

In social studies, the students might be asked how they would allocate limited resources to keep a settlement like Jamestown alive and thriving.

Lea Travis, director of elementary education for the Bedford School District, said, "It's not just going to be memorization of facts. Children are going to have to be critical thinkers and problem solvers.

"They're going to have to communicate better than in the past and justify their answers."

At the same time that the questions are changing, the scores needed to pass are going up as well.

On most of Ohio's tests now, students can get more than half the answers wrong and still be at the proficient level. On some, they can get two-thirds of the answers wrong and still pass the test.

As Churchill said on a Fordham blog, Ohio's cut scores are "appallingly low."

"Ohio set its proficiency cut scores in the early 2000s and unlike other states [has] never ratcheted them up along the way," he wrote.

Or as John Charlton, spokesman for the Ohio Department of Education, put it: "Ohio is pretty good at meeting minimum standards, but we need to do a better job of educating students so they are college- and career-ready."

While the more rigorous standards and tests will pay off in the long run, Ohioans are not likely to see two-thirds of districts rated Excellent or Excellent with Distinction, as is the case now, he said.

Public-school officials are the ones who will have to explain the lower scores and ratings to parents, property owners and businesses vested in their communities.

Failing a state test doesn't have a direct impact on the student in elementary and middle school – beyond the extra help that he or she would theoretically get. But the failure does get factored into state ratings which can bring sanctions or bragging rights.

In the past, state officials have adjusted cut scores when too many students failed. That's less likely to happen this time around with almost all of the states involved and with the federal government exerting its influence through funding grants.

Daniel, the director of testing in Parma, said the Ohio Department of Education has been "very clear that we should expect the dip. It would be very naive of a district, with all the evidence that continues to come out, to think they will ultimately water down what would be a passing score."

But a key question remains: Will raising the bar ultimately result in higher student achievement?

Some critics think the Common Core is destined to be just one more in a long string of reform initiatives, enriching curriculum designers, testing companies and other consultants along the way.

In the meantime, educators in districts and charter schools across the state have no choice but to prepare and try to get a head start.

Many are optimistic that changing the way teachers teach -- going deeper -- over the next couple of years will enable students to do better than expected when the new tests come.

Parma has taken an "aggressive approach" to make sure teachers are ready, Daniel said.

"We're pretty confident and proud of our rollout in the elementary grades," he said. "We're educating our teachers to give our kids a fighting chance on the new tests.

"I hope the things we're doing now will offset the dip, but we won't really know until we hit the starting line."

Travis said the Bedford district is helping teachers understand that rigor under the new standards will mean a different approach -- "not more homework or just more work." The author of a book on rigor spoke at a recent professional development session, and principals are continuing the discussion by leading a book study.

Bedford also is making sure even the youngest students know their way around a computer since that's how they'll take their tests, she said.

Cleveland was one of the first districts in the state to start switching its teaching methods to line up with the Common Core. Gordon said the approach has already led to a jump in third-graders' reading scores.

"It's going to be a heavy, heavy lift, but it's the right thing to do," he said.

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