UFC 136 Preview: The Main Card

Edgar vs. Maynard

In the
Ultimate Fighting Championship’s deepest and most talented
division, challenges aplenty await the victor of Frankie
Edgar-Gray
Maynard 3. Still, the question of who belongs at the top of the
mountain remains as compelling and vexing as any potential matchup
in the game. Hence, the mixed martial arts community has the
UFC
136 to contemplate.

With Edgar looking to make the third defense of his championship
and Maynard still the only man to have beaten him, a close, intense
match seems almost assured. A cast of hungry contenders lurking in
the ranks, so whoever wins will have little time to savor the
victory before being thrown into an exceptionally difficult title
defense.

In the co-headliner, featherweight titleholder Jose Aldo
faces a seasoned challenger of his own in Kenny
Florian. Blessed with potent standup ability and rare
athleticism, Aldo takes on a man that owns, in many ways, a similar
style to his own. In June, Florian moved down yet another weight
class -- his fourth in the UFC -- to try his hand at 145
pounds.

UFC 136 -- which emanates from the Toyota Center in Houston -- also
brings with it the return of Chael
Sonnen, who faces former
WEC champion Brian Stann
in a bout that carries definite title shot implications. Here is a
closer look at the main card, with breakdowns and picks.

The Matchup: After a stellar second match between them on
New Year’s Day, Edgar-Maynard 3 brings a hopeful sense of closure
to rivalry between the UFC’s top two lightweights. The duo put up a
spirited five-round match in its January encounter, supplying
excitement and thrills as Maynard hammered Edgar across the Octagon
in a brutal opening round, only to see the champion mount an
inspired rally to salvage a draw.

The rubber match also addresses the if-then statements the second
bout supplied. What if Edgar had never been hurt? How much did
Maynard lose going all-out for the stoppage in the first round,
where he threw an astounding 97 strikes? How will each man change
his strategy now, based on what he learned?

Compared to their first fight in April 2008, when Maynard scored
takedowns and dominated Edgar on the mat, it was obvious that the
champion had since made some key adjustments in his game. Using
improved standup and footwork, he denied Maynard the distance and
takedown openings he exploited at UFC Fight Night 13. Edgar’s
ability to use boxing and timing makes up for his lack of numbing
one-shot power, and his outstanding conditioning in his two wins
over B.J.
Penn proved he is never out of a fight as long as he remains
conscious -- or semi-conscious, as he was for parts of his second
bout with Maynard.

Psychologically, the edge coming off of UFC 125 has to go to Edgar.
He recovered from a terrible pounding and even took down Maynard a
few times. One has to wonder what “The Bully” will be thinking in
terms of finishing Edgar if the opportunity presents itself. Will
he risk going all-in again?

That said, Maynard has some equalizers Edgar does not. He is likely
to get outworked on the feet in an extended striking match, as the
champion’s quick right hand and great mix of strikes keeps
opponents guessing, but Maynard simply has heavier hands and the
wrestling horsepower to blunt Edgar’s tools. The biggest adjustment
for him will be waiting and timing his shots as Edgar scoots in and
out; Maynard can throw in more takedown attempts, too. Edgar, a
fantastic sprawler and scrambler, will likely deny the early shots,
but they will keep him honest -- and thinking.

If the fight unfolds in the center of the Octagon, a slight edge
goes to Edgar, especially if he remembers to circle to his left and
avoid Maynard’s left hook, which hurt him last time. Maynard should
also use more kicks in this fight; he is strong enough to make them
count, and he needs to be a four-limbed fighter, as Edgar utilizes
everything to pile up points. Maynard should also press forward and
try and force Edgar against the cage, which will negate some of the
champion’s dexterity and scrambling ability. Maynard will win a
battle of upper body strength and wrestling horsepower every time,
but standing around and waiting to counter leaves too many openings
for the talented Edgar, who always seems to have enough gas to
close hard down the stretch. Maynard has to make this more of a
down-and-dirty fight than the final four rounds of their last
matchup.

In a battle between two of the three best lightweights in the world
-- Strikeforce champion Gilbert
Melendez being the meat in the sandwich -- it may come down to
a key takedown or two and a memorable exchange in a close
round.

The Pick: Psychologically, Edgar holds an edge here. He
knows he can rally from the brink, and he never hesitates to push
forward and burst out of a bad situation. Maynard will bring more
pressure and takedown attempts, but Edgar’s ability to escape and
rally will push the pace as he battles for every round, minute and
exchange. In another classic fight, Edgar’s activity and volume
will be just enough to pull out a split decision win.