Business Employment Dynamics

Quarterly Data Series on Business Employment Dynamics News Release

For release 10:00 a.m. EDT USDL-11-1149
Tuesday, August 2, 2011
Technical information: (202) 691-6553 * BDMInfo@bls.gov * www.bls.gov/bdm
Media contact: (202) 691-5902 * PressOffice@bls.gov
BUSINESS EMPLOYMENT DYNAMICS: FOURTH QUARTER 2010
From September to December 2010 the number of gross job gains from opening
and expanding private sector establishments increased to 7.0 million,
the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over this period,
the number of gross job losses from closing and contracting private
sector establishments was essentially unchanged from the previous quarter
at 6.4 million.
In the fourth quarter of 2010, large firms with 250 or more employees
experienced the largest quarter of gross job gains (1.7 million) since
December 2007.
The change in the number of jobs over time is the net result of
increases and decreases in employment that occur at all businesses
in the economy. Business Employment Dynamics (BED) statistics track
these changes in employment at private business units from the third
month of one quarter to the third month of the next. Gross job gains
are the sum of increases in employment from expansions at existing
units and the addition of new jobs at opening units. Gross job losses
are the result of contractions in employment at existing units and the
loss of jobs at closing units. The difference between the number of
gross job gains and the number of gross job losses is the net change
in employment. (See the Technical Note for more information.)
The BED data series include gross job gains and gross job losses at the
establishment level by industry subsector and for the 50 states, the
District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, and the Virgin Islands, as well as
gross job gains and gross job losses at the firm level by employer size
class.
Contracting establishments lost 5.2 million jobs in the fourth quarter of
2010, resuming a downward trend in this series that began in the second
quarter of 2009.
Job gains at expanding establishments rose to 5.6 million in fourth
quarter 2010 after falling in the third quarter.
In the fourth qaurter of 2010 closing establishments lost 1.2 million
jobs, about the same as in the previous quarter.
Opening establishments gained 1.3 million jobs in fourth quarter
2010, an increase from the previous quarter when opening establishments
created 1.2 million jobs. (See tables 1 and 3.)
In fourth quarter 2010, the number of establishment births (a subset of
the openings data, see the Technical Note for more information) rose by
14,000 to 196,000. These new establishments accounted for 771,000 jobs,
an increase of 57,000 from the previous quarter. Fourth quarter 2010
experienced the highest number of establishment births since second
quarter 2008.
Data for establishment deaths (a subset of the closings data) are
available through March 2010, when 667,000 jobs were lost at 196,000
establishments. This quarter represents the lowest number of jobs lost
since the series began in third quarter 1992, and the lowest number of
establishment deaths since first quarter 2007.(See table 8.)
The difference between the number of gross jobs gains and the number of
gross jobs losses yielded a net change of 563,000 jobs in the private
sector during the fourth quarter 2010. (See table 1.)
Gross job gains represented 6.6 percent of private sector employment in
fourth quarter 2010, while gross job losses represented 6.1 percent of
private sector employment. (See table 2.)
The goods-producing sector experienced gross job gains of 1,350,000 and
gross job losses of 1,400,000, leading to a net employment loss of -
50,000. Within the goods producing sector, construction contributed all
of the net employment losses, (-63,000). The information sector was the
only other sector to experience a net employment loss in fourth quarter
2010. Transportation and warehousing had the largest positive rate of net
employment change, 1.4 percent, followed by professional and business
services at 1.1 percent. The financial activities sector recorded a net
employment change of 22,000, reversing a negative trend that began in
second quarter 2007. (See table 3.)
Table A. Three-month private sector gross job gains and losses,
seasonally adjusted
Category 3 months ended
Dec. Mar. June Sept. Dec.
2009 2010 2010 2010 2010
Levels (in thousands)
Gross job gains................ 6,662 6,110 6,935 6,593 6,954
At expanding establishments... 5,326 4,996 5,682 5,388 5,609
At opening establishments..... 1,336 1,114 1,253 1,205 1,345
Gross job losses............... 6,890 6,421 6,207 6,442 6,391
At contracting establishments. 5,598 5,231 5,064 5,226 5,162
At closing establishments..... 1,292 1,190 1,143 1,216 1,229
Net employment change(1)....... -228 -311 728 151 563
Rates (percent)
Gross job gains................ 6.4 5.8 6.6 6.2 6.6
At expanding establishments... 5.1 4.7 5.4 5.1 5.3
At opening establishments..... 1.3 1.1 1.2 1.1 1.3
Gross job losses............... 6.5 6.1 5.9 6.0 6.1
At contracting establishments. 5.3 5.0 4.8 4.9 4.9
At closing establishments..... 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.2
Net employment change(1)....... -.1 -.3 .7 .2 .5
(1) The net employment change is the difference between total
gross job gains and total gross job losses. See the Technical
Note for further information.
Firms with 250 or more employees accounted for 72.8 percent of total net
job gains in the fourth quarter of 2010. This is the largest net
employment gain (351,000) in this size class since September 2005. (See
tables 4 and 5.)
In the fourth quarter of 2010, gross job losses exceeded gross job gains
in eight states, down from 20 states in the previous quarter. California
had the largest positive quarterly net employment change of 100,811 jobs.
(See table 6.) North Dakota experienced the largest rate of net
employment change at 1.9 percent. (See table 7.)
More Information
Additional information on gross job gains and gross job losses are
available online at http://www.bls.gov/bdm. This information
includes data on the levels and rates of gross job gains and gross
job losses by firm size, the not seasonally adjusted data and other
seasonally adjusted time series not presented in this release,
charts of gross job gains and gross job losses by industry and firm
size, and frequently asked questions on firm-size data. Additional
information about the Business Employment Dynamics data can be
found in the Technical Note of this release or may be obtained by
e-mailing BDMinfo@bls.gov.
------------------------------------------------------------------------
| The Business Employment Dynamics for First Quarter 2011 are scheduled |
| to be released on Thursday, November 17, 2011 at 10:00 a.m. (EST). |
------------------------------------------------------------------------

Technical Note
The Business Employment Dynamics (BED) data are a product of a federal-
state cooperative program known as Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages
(QCEW), or the ES-202 program. The BED data are compiled by the U.S.
Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) from existing quarterly state unemployment
insurance (UI) records. Most employers in the U.S. are required to file
quarterly reports on the employment and wages of workers covered by UI
laws, and to pay quarterly UI taxes. The quarterly UI reports are sent by
the State Workforce Agencies (SWAs) to BLS and form the basis of the BLS
establishment universe sampling frame. These reports also are used to pro-
duce the quarterly QCEW data on total employment and wages and the longitu-
dinal BED data on gross job gains and losses. Other important BLS uses
of the UI reports are in the Current Employment Statistics (CES) program.
(See table below for differences between QCEW, CES, and BED.)
In the BED program, the quarterly UI records are linked across quarters
to provide a longitudinal history for each establishment. The linkage
process allows the tracking of net employment changes at the establishment
level, which in turn allows the estimation of jobs gained at opening and
expanding establishments and jobs lost at closing and contracting establish-
ments.
Differences between QCEW, BED, and CES employment measures
The BLS publishes three different establishment-based employment mea-
sures for any given quarter. Each of these measures--QCEW, BED, and CES--
makes use of the quarterly UI employment reports in producing data; how-
ever, each measure has a somewhat different universe coverage, estimation
procedure, and publication product.
Differences in coverage and estimation methods can result in somewhat
different measures of over-the-quarter employment change. It is important to
understand program differences and the intended uses of the program products.
(See table below.) Additional information on each program can be obtained
from the program Web sites shown in the table.
Summary of Major Differences between QCEW, BED, and CES Employment Measures
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
| QCEW | BED | CES
-----------|---------------------|----------------------|------------------------
Source |--Count of UI admini-|--Count of longitudi- |--Sample survey:
| strative records | nally-linked UI ad- | 410,000 establish-
| submitted by 9.0 | ministrative records| ments
| million employers | submitted by 6.7 |
| | million private sec-|
| | tor employers |
-----------|---------------------|----------------------|------------------------
Coverage |--UI and UCFE cover- |--UI Coverage, exclud-|Nonfarm wage and sal-
| age: all employers| ing government, pri-| ary jobs:
| subject to state | vate households, and|--UI Coverage, exclud-
| and federal UI Laws| establishments with | ing agriculture, pri-
| | zero employment | vate households, and
| | | self-employed workers
| | |--Other employment, in-
| | | cluding railroads,
| | | religious organiza-
| | | tions, and other non-
| | | UI-covered jobs
-----------|---------------------|----------------------|------------------------
Publication|--Quarterly |--Quarterly |--Monthly
frequency | -7 months after the| -8 months after the | -Usually first Friday
| end of each quar- | end of each quarter| of following month
| ter | |
-----------|---------------------|----------------------|------------------------
Use of UI |--Directly summarizes|--Links each new UI |--Uses UI file as a sam-
file | and publishes each | quarter to longitu- | pling frame and annu-
| new quarter of UI | dinal database and | ally realigns (bench-
| data | directly summarizes | marks) sample esti-
| | gross job gains and | mates to first quar-
| | losses | ter UI levels
-----------|---------------------|----------------------|------------------------
Principal |--Provides a quarter-|--Provides quarterly |--Provides current month-
products | ly and annual uni- | employer dynamics | ly estimates of employ-
| verse count of es- | data on establish- | ment, hours, and earn-
| tablishments, em- | ment openings, clos-| ings at the MSA, state,
| ployment, and wages| ings, expansions, | and national level by
| at the county, MSA,| and contractions at | industry
| state, and national| the national level |
| levels by detailed | by NAICS super- |
| industry | sectors and by size |
| | of firm, and at the |
| | state private-sector|
| | total level |
| |--Future expansions |
| | will include data |
| | with greater in- |
| | dustry detail and |
| | data at the county |
| | and MSA level |
-----------|---------------------|----------------------|------------------------
Principal |--Major uses include:|--Major uses include: |--Major uses include:
uses | -Detailed locality | -Business cycle | -Principal national
| data | analysis | economic indicator
| -Periodic universe | -Analysis of employ-| -Official time series
| counts for bench- | er dynamics under- | for employment change
| marking sample | lying economic ex- | measures
| survey estimates | pansions and con- | -Input into other ma-
| -Sample frame for | tractions | jor economic indi-
| BLS establishment | -Analysis of employ-| cators
| surveys | ment expansion and |
| | contraction by size|
| | of firm |
| | |
-----------|---------------------|----------------------|------------------------
Program |--www.bls.gov/cew/ |--www.bls.gov/bdm/ |--www.bls.gov/ces/
Web sites | | |
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Coverage
Employment and wage data for workers covered by state UI and Unemployment
Compensation for Federal Employees (UCFE) laws are compiled from quarterly
contribution reports submitted to the SWAs by employers. In addition to the
quarterly contribution reports, employers who operate multiple establishments
within a state complete a questionnaire, called the "Multiple Worksite Report,"
which provides detailed information on the location of their establishments.
These reports are based on place of employment rather than place of residence.
UI and UCFE coverage is broad and basically comparable from state to state.
Major exclusions from UI coverage are self-employed workers, religious or-
ganizations, most agricultural workers on small farms, all members of the
Armed Forces, elected officials in most states, most employees of railroads,
some domestic workers, most student workers at schools, and employees of cer-
tain small nonprofit organizations.
Gross job gains and gross job losses in this release are derived from lon-
gitudinal histories of 6.7 million private sector employer reports out
of 9.0 million total reports of employment and wages submitted by states to
BLS in the first quarter of 2010. Gross job gains and gross job losses data
in this release do not report estimates for government employees or private
households (NAICS 814110) and do not include establishments with zero employ-
ment in both previous and current quarters. Data from Puerto Rico and the
Virgin Islands also are excluded from the national data. As an illustration,
the table below shows, in millions of establishments, the number of establish-
ments excluded from the gross job gains and gross job losses data in the
first quarter of 2010:
Number of active establishments included in
Business Employment Dynamics data at the
national level
Millions
Total establishments QCEW program....................................9.0
Excluded: Public sector.........................................0.3
Private households....................................0.7
Zero employment.......................................1.3
Establishments in Puerto Rico
and the Virgin Islands..............................0.0
(less than 50,000)
Total establishments included in Business
Employment Dynamics data.............................................6.7
Unit of analysis
Establishments are used in the tabulation of the BED statistics by in-
dustry and firms are used in the tabulation of the BED size class sta-
tistics. An establishment is defined as an economic unit that produces
goods or services, usually at a single physical location, and engages in
one or predominantly one activity. A firm is a legal business, either
corporate or otherwise, and may consist of several establishments. Firm-
level data are compiled based on an aggregation of establishments under
common ownership by a corporate parent using employer tax identification
numbers. The firm-level aggregation, which is consistent with the role of
corporations as the economic decision makers, is used for the measurement
of the BED data elements by size class.
Because of the difference in the unit of analysis, total gross job gains
and gross job losses by size class are lower than total gross job gains and
gross job losses by industry, as some establishment gains and losses within
a firm are offset during the aggregation process. However, the total net
changes in employment are the same for not seasonally adjusted data and are
similar for seasonally adjusted data.
Concepts and methodology
The Business Employment Dynamics data measure the net change in employ-
ment at the establishment or firm level. These changes come about in one
of four ways. A net increase in employment can come from either opening
units or expanding units. A net decrease in employment can come from either
closing units or contracting units. Gross job gains include the sum of all
jobs added at either opening or expanding units. Gross job losses include
the sum of all jobs lost in either closing or contracting units. The net
change in employment is the difference between gross job gains and gross
job losses.
The formal definitions of employment changes are as follows:
Openings. These are either units with positive third month employment for
the first time in the current quarter, with no links to the prior quarter, or
with positive third month employment in the current quarter, following zero em-
ployment in the previous quarter.
Expansions. These are units with positive employment in the third month
in both the previous and current quarters, with a net increase in employment
over this period.
Closings. These are units with positive third month employment in the pre-
vious quarter, with no employment or zero employment reported in the current
quarter.
Contractions. These are units with positive employment in the third month
in both the previous and current quarters, with a net decrease in employment
over this period.
Births. These are units with positive third month employment for the
first time in the current quarter with no links to the prior quarter, or
units with positive third month employment in the current quarter and zero
employment in the third month of the previous four quarters. Births are a
subset of openings not including re-openings of seasonal businesses.
Deaths. These are units with no employment or zero employment reported in
the third month of four consecutive quarters following the last quarter with
positive employment. Deaths are a subset of closings not including temporary
shutdowns of seasonal businesses. A unit that closes during the quarter may
be a death, but we wait three quarters to determine whether it is a permanent
closing or a temporary shutdown. Therefore, there is always a lag of three
quarters for the publication of death statistics.
All establishment-level employment changes are measured from the third
month of each quarter. Not all establishments and firms change their em-
ployment levels. Units with no change in employment count towards estimates
of total employment, but not for levels of gross employment job gains and
gross job losses.
Gross job gains and gross job losses are expressed as rates by dividing
their levels by the average of employment in the current and previous quar-
ters. This provides a symmetric growth rate. The rates are calculated for
the components of gross job gains and gross job losses and then summed to
form their respective totals. These rates can be added and subtracted just
as their levels can. For instance, the difference between the gross job
gains rate and the gross job losses rate is the net growth rate.
Establishment Births and Deaths
For the purpose of BED statistics, births are defined as establishments
that appear in the longitudinal database for the first time with positive
employment in the third month of a quarter, or showed four consecutive
quarters of zero employment in the third month followed by a quarter in
which it shows positive employment in the third month. Similarly, deaths
are defined as establishments that either drop out of the longitudinal
database or an establishment that had positive employment in the third month
of a given quarter followed by four consecutive quarters of showing zero
employment in the third month. Although the data for establishment births
and deaths are tabulated independently from the data for openings and
closings, the concepts are not mutually exclusive. An establishment that
is defined as a birth in a given quarter is necessarily an opening as well,
and an establishment defined as a death in a quarter must also be a closing.
Since openings include seasonal, and other, re-openings and closings include
temporary shutdowns, the not seasonally adjusted values for births and
deaths must be less than those openings and closings. However, because some
BED series do not have many re-openings or temporary shutdowns, as well as
the fact that births and deaths are independently seasonally adjusted from
openings and closings, there may be instances in which the seasonally
adjusted value of the former is greater than the latter.
Linkage methodology
Prior to the measurement of gross job gains and gross job losses, QCEW
records are linked across two quarters. The linkage process matches esta-
blishments' unique SWA identification numbers (SWA-ID). Between 95 to 97
percent of establishments identified as continuous from quarter to quarter
are matched by SWA-ID. The rest are linked in one of three ways. The first
method uses predecessor and successor information, identified by the states,
which relates records with different SWA-IDs across quarters. Predecessor
and successor relations can come about for a variety of reasons, including
a change in ownership, a firm restructuring, or a UI account restructuring.
If a match cannot be attained in this manner, a probability-based match is
used. This match attempts to identify two establishments with different SWA-
IDs as continuous. The match is based upon comparisons such as the same
name, address, and phone number. Third, an analyst examines unmatched re-
cords individually and makes a possible match.
In order to ensure the highest possible quality of data, SWAs verify with
employers and update, if necessary, the industry, location, and ownership
classification of all establishments on a 3-year cycle. Changes in establish-
ment classification codes resulting from the verification process are intro-
duced with the data reported for the first quarter of the year. Changes re-
sulting from improved employer reporting also are introduced in the first
quarter.
Sizing methodology
The method of dynamic sizing is used in calculations for the BED size-
class data series. Dynamic sizing allocates each firm's employment gain or
loss during a quarter to each respective size class in which the change
occurred. For example, if a firm grew from 2 employees in quarter 1 to 38
employees in quarter 2, then, of the 36-employee increase, 2 would be al-
located to the first size class, 5 to the size class 5 to 9, 10 to size
class 10 to 19, and 19 to size class 20 to 49.
Dynamic sizing provides symmetrical firm-size estimates and eliminates
any systematic effects which may be caused by the transitory and reverting
changes in firms' sizes over time. Additionally, it allocates each job
gain or loss to the actual size class where it occurred.
Annual Data
The annual gross job gains and gross job losses measure the net change
in employment at the establishment level from the third month of a quarter
in the previous year to the third month of the same quarter in the current
year. The BLS publishes annual BED data based on March-to-March changes
once a year with the release of the first quarter BED data. The annual
data based on over-the-year changes for other quarters of the year are
available upon request. The definitions and methodology in measuring
annual gross job gains and gross job losses are similar to the quarterly
measures. The linkage method considers all predecessor and successor
relations that may come about due to changes in ownership and corporate
restructuring over the entire year. At the establishment level, some of
the quarterly job gains and job losses are offset during the estimation
over the year. Therefore, the sum of four quarters of gross job gains
and gross job losses are not equal to annual gross job gains and gross
job losses. The net change in employment over the year, however, is
equal to the sum of four quarterly net changes on a not seasonally
adjusted basis.
Seasonal adjustment
Over the course of a year, the levels of employment and the associated
job flows undergo sharp fluctuations due to such seasonal events as changes
in the weather, reduced or expanded production, harvests, major holidays,
and the opening and closing of schools. The effect of such seasonal vari-
ation can be very large.
Because these seasonal events follow a more or less regular pattern each
year, their influence can be eliminated by adjusting these statistics from
quarter to quarter. These adjustments make nonseasonal developments, such as
declines in economic activity, easier to recognize. For example, the large
number of youths taking summer jobs is likely to obscure other changes that
have taken place in June relative to March, making it difficult to determine
if the level of economic activity has risen or declined. However, because
the effect of students finishing school in previous years is known, the
statistics for the current year can be adjusted to allow for a comparable
change. The adjusted figures provide a more useful tool with which to ana-
lyze changes in economic activity.
The employment data series for opening, expanding, closing, and contract-
ing units are independently seasonally adjusted; net changes are calculated
based on the difference between gross job gains and gross job losses. Simi-
larly, for industry data, the establishment counts data series for opening,
expanding, closing, and contracting establishments are independently adjusted,
and the net changes are calculated based on the difference between the number
of opening and closing establishments. Additionally, establishment and em-
ployment levels are independently seasonally adjusted to calculate the sea-
sonally adjusted rates. Concurrent seasonal adjustment is run using X-12
ARIMA. Seasonally adjusted data series for the total private sector are cal-
culated by summing the seasonally adjusted data for all sectors, including
the unclassified sector, which is not published separately.
The employment data series for opening, expanding, closing, and contracting
units for each of the 50 states and the District of Columbia are seasonally
adjusted at the total private level only. The sum of the state series for
opening, expanding, closing, and contracting units will not necessarily be
equal to the national total private series because of the independent seasonal
adjustment of these series.
The net over-the-quarter change derived by summing the BED component series
will differ from the net employment change estimated from the seasonally ad-
justed total private employment series from the CES program. The intended use
of BED statistics is to show the dynamic labor market changes that underlie
the net employment change statistic. As such, data users interested particu-
larly in the net employment change and not in the gross job flows underlying
this change should refer to CES data for over-the-quarter net employment
changes.
Reliability of the data
Since the data series on Business Employment Dynamics are based on admini-
strative rather than sample data, there are no issues related to sampling
error. Nonsampling error, however, still exists. Nonsampling errors can oc-
cur for many reasons, such as the employer submitting corrected employment
data after the end of the quarter or typographical errors made by businesses
when providing information. Such errors, however, are likely to be distri-
buted randomly throughout the dataset.
Changes in administrative data sometimes create complications for the
linkage process. This can result in overstating openings and closings while
understating expansions and contractions. The BLS continues to refine methods
for improving the linkage process to alleviate the effects of these compli-
cations.
The BED data series are subject to periodic minor changes based on correc-
tions in QCEW records, updates on predecessors and successors information, and
seasonal adjustment revisions.
Annual revisions are published each year with the release of the first quarter
data. These revisions cover the last four quarters of not seasonally adjusted
data and 5 years of seasonally adjusted data.
Additional statistics and other information
Several other programs within BLS produce closely related information.
The QCEW program, also known as the ES-202 program, provides both quarterly
and annual estimates of employment by state, county, and detailed industry.
News releases on quarterly county employment and wages are available upon
request from the Division of Administrative Statistics and Labor Turnover,
Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of Labor, Washington, DC 20212;
telephone 202-691-6567; (http://www.bls.gov/cew/); (e-mail: QCEWInfo@bls.gov).
The CES program produces monthly estimates of employment, its net change,
and earnings by detailed industry. These estimates are part of the Employ-
ment Situation report put out monthly by BLS.
The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) program provides month-
ly measures of job openings, as well as employee hires and separations.
Information in this release will be made available to sensory impaired in-
dividuals upon request. Voice phone: 202-691-5200; TDD message referral
number: 1-800-877-8339.