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Clinton Solidifies Lead Among Democrats, Giuliani Still Tops GOP Field

by Jeffrey M. Jones

Clinton favorable rating back to 50%

GALLUPNEWS SERVICE

PRINCETON, NJ -- A new
USAToday/Gallup poll finds Hillary Clinton solidifying her lead over Barack Obama and the rest of the field for the 2008 Democratic presidential nomination, while Rudy Giuliani continues to lead among Republicans. This is the first poll conducted after each party held televised debates on cable television. Aside from a slightly better showing for Clinton, preferences for both parties' nominations have changed little from the prior poll in mid-April. Notably, Clinton's favorable rating among all Americans is back to 50% after being below that mark since late March.

Democratic Nomination

The May 4-6, 2007, poll finds 38% of Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents saying they are most likely to support Clinton for the party's 2008 presidential nomination. Barack Obama is a clear second at 23%, followed by Al Gore (14%), and John Edwards (12%). All other candidates receive 2% or less support.

Clinton's lead is back in double digits after the prior poll showed her with a smaller 31% to 26% advantage over Obama. The 38% support for Clinton in the current poll is more in line with what she has gotten this year.

Three other measures underscore Clinton's status as a solid frontrunner.

She leads Obama by a 45% to 27% margin if Gore's supporters are re-allocated to the announced candidates. Gore has said he has no plans to run, but has not ruled out a bid.

Clinton leads Obama 56% to 37% in a hypothetical head-to-head matchup. Clinton has routinely led Obama on this measure throughout the year, by no less than 12 percentage points.

Sixty percent of Democrats say Clinton is either their first or second choice for the nomination. All other candidates are below 50% on this measure, with Obama the closest to it at 46%.

The poll also shows a bit of a recovery in Clinton's image among the general public. In three Gallup polls conducted from late March through mid-April, Clinton's favorable rating among all Americans was below 50%. That included a 45% rating in mid-April -- one of the lowest Gallup has ever recorded for Clinton. Now, in the current poll, her favorable rating is back to 50%. That, however, is still down from 58% as recently as February.

The other leading Democrats -- Obama (50%), Edwards (49%), and Gore (49%) -- all have similar favorable ratings to Clinton, but the lesser known Obama (24%) and Edwards (31%) have much lower unfavorable ratings than Clinton (47%) and Gore (43%). Meanwhile, Giuliani remains more popular than any of the leading Democrats with a solid 61% favorable rating.

Republican Nomination

The latest poll finds little change in Republicans' nomination preferences. Giuliani has held a significant lead over McCain in each poll since February. In the current poll, 34% of Republicans and independent-leaning Republicans name Giuliani as their top choice for the party's 2008 presidential nomination, while 20% choose McCain. Fred Thompson -- the actor and former Tennessee senator who said he is considering a candidacy -- is chosen by 13% of Republicans. Former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich, who has also hinted at a possible candidacy, gets 8% support, and former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney gets 7%. All other candidates score at 2% or lower.

Giuliani also maintains a solid lead over McCain, 56% to 38%, in a hypothetical head-to-head match up. Those numbers have been quite stable in the last several polls.

Survey Methods

These results are based on telephone interviews with a randomly selected national sample of 1,010 adults, aged 18 and older, conducted May 4-6, 2007. For results based on this sample, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum error attributable to sampling and other random effects is ±3 percentage points.

For results based on the sample of 491 Democrats and Democratic leaners, the maximum margin of sampling error is ±5 percentage points.

For results based on the sample of 427 Republicans and Republican leaners, the maximum margin of sampling error is ±5 percentage points.

In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

4. (Asked of Republicans and independents who lean to the Republican Party)
Next, I'm going to read a list of people who may be running in the Republican primary for president in the next election. After I read all the names, please tell me which of those candidates you would be most likely to support for the Republican nomination for President in the year 2008, or if you would support someone else. [ROTATED: Kansas Senator, Sam Brownback; Former Virginia Governor, Jim Gilmore; Former Speaker of the House, Newt Gingrich; Former New York City Mayor, Rudy Giuliani; Nebraska Senator, Chuck Hagel; Former Arkansas Governor, Mike Huckabee; California Congressman, Duncan Hunter; Arizona Senator, John McCain; Former New York Governor, George Pataki; Former Massachusetts Governor, MittRomney; Colorado Congressman, Tom Tancredo; Former Wisconsin Governor, Tommy Thompson; Former Tennessee Senator, Fred Thompson; Texas Congressman, Ron Paul]

Note: Ballot recalculated by substituting Gingrich supporters' second choice for their Gingrich vote

5. (Asked of Republicans and independents who lean to the Republican Party who named a candidate they support for the Republican nomination in 2008)
Who would be your second choice?

COMBINED RESPONSES (Q.4-5): FIRST AND SECOND CHOICES

BASED ON 427 REPUBLICANS AND REPUBLICAN LEANERS

May
4-6,
2007

Apr
13-15,
2007

Apr
2-5,
2007

Mar
23-25,
2007

Mar
2-4,
2007

Feb
9-11,
2007

%

%

%

%

%

%

Rudy Giuliani

55

61

62

57

64

62

John McCain

37

41

39

38

42

47

Fred Thompson

21

19

16

16

N/A

N/A

Mitt Romney

20

15

12

9

14

11

Newt Gingrich

16

16

19

15

21

18

Tommy Thompson

5

4

6

5

4

3

George Pataki

2

6

4

2

5

4

Mike Huckabee

2

4

3

3

3

3

Sam Brownback

2

1

2

4

2

4

Chuck Hagel

2

*

2

1

1

1

Ron Paul

1

3

5

2

N/A

N/A

Jim Gilmore

1

2

*

1

1

2

Duncan Hunter

1

1

1

1

1

4

Tom Tancredo

1

1

3

1

2

2

Other

2

2

3

3

3

5

None

9

6

4

7

1

3

All/any

*

--

*

1

--

--

No opinion

7

3

4

9

10

9

* = Less than 0.5%

N/A = Not asked

Note: Percentages add to more than 100% due to multiple responses.

6. (Asked of Republicans and independents who lean to the Republican Party)
Suppose the choice for the Republican presidential nomination narrows down to former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani and Arizona Senator John McCain. Which one would you prefer the Republican Party nominate for president -- [ROTATED: Rudy Giuliani (or) John McCain]?

BASED ON 427 REPUBLICANS AND REPUBLICAN LEANERS

Giuliani

McCain

No opinion

%

%

%

2007 May 4-6

56

38

6

2007 Apr 13-15

57

39

4

2007 Apr 2-5

57

38

6

2007 Mar 23-25

54

39

7

2007 Mar 2-4

58

34

8

2007 Feb 9-11

57

39

4

2007 Jan 5-7

50

42

8

7. (Asked of Democrats and independents who lean to the Democratic Party)
Next, I'm going to read a list of people who may be running in the Democratic primary for president in the next election. After I read all the names, please tell me which of those candidates you would be most likely to support for the Democratic nomination for President in the year 2008, or if you would support someone else. [ROTATED: Delaware Senator, Joe Biden; Retired General, Wesley Clark; New York Senator, Hillary Clinton; Connecticut Senator, Christopher Dodd; Former North Carolina Senator, John Edwards; Former Vice President, Al Gore; Former Alaska Senator, Mike Gravel; Ohio Congressman, Dennis Kucinich; Illinois Senator, Barack Obama; New Mexico Governor, Bill Richardson; The Reverend, Al Sharpton]

BASED ON 491 DEMOCRATS AND DEMOCRATIC LEANERS

May
4-6,
2007

Apr
13-15,
2007

Apr
2-5,
2007

Mar
23-25,
2007

Mar
2-4,
2007

Feb
9-11,
2007

Jan
12-14,
2007

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

Hillary Clinton

38

31

38

35

36

40

29

Barack Obama

23

26

19

22

22

21

18

Al Gore

14

15

14

17

18

14

11

John Edwards

12

16

15

14

9

13

13

Joe Biden

2

1

1

1

3

1

5

Bill Richardson

2

3

2

3

1

4

3

Dennis Kucinich

1

1

*

*

--

*

*

Wesley Clark

1

1

3

1

2

1

2

Christopher Dodd

*

1

*

--

*

1

1

Mike Gravel

*

1

1

--

1

*

N/A

Al Sharpton

--

2

*

--

*

--

1

Tom Vilsack

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

*

*

John Kerry

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

8

Other

1

*

2

*

1

*

2

None

1

1

1

2

3

1

2

All/any

--

--

--

--

*

--

*

No opinion

4

3

5

4

4

3

4

* = Less than 0.5%

N/A = Not asked

Contact Gallup for full trend.

Democratic Presidential Nomination Preference (Without Al Gore):

May
4-6,
2007

Apr
13-15,
2007

Apr
2-5,
2007

Mar
23-25,
2007

Mar
2-4,
2007

Feb
9-11,
2007

%

%

%

%

%

%

Hillary Clinton

45

37

43

42

44

48

Barack Obama

27

29

19

24

27

23

John Edwards

14

19

18

17

10

14

Bill Richardson

3

4

3

4

2

5

Joe Biden

2

2

2

2

3

2

Wesley Clark

1

2

3

2

3

1

Dennis Kucinich

1

1

*

1

*

*

Christopher Dodd

*

1

*

--

*

1

Al Sharpton

*

2

*

--

1

--

Mike Gravel

*

1

1

*

1

*

Tom Vilsack

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

*

Other

1

1

2

*

2

1

None

1

1

1

2

3

1

All/any

--

--

--

--

*

--

No opinion

4

3

7

5

5

4

* = Less than 0.5%

M/A = Not asked

Note: Ballot recalculated by substituting Gore supporters' second choice for their Gore vote.

8. (Asked of Democrats and independents who lean to the Democratic Party who named a candidate they support for the Democratic nomination in 2008)
Who would be your second choice?

COMBINED RESPONSES (Q.7-8): FIRST AND SECOND CHOICES

BASED ON 491 DEMOCRATS AND DEMOCRATIC LEANERS

May
4-6,
2007

Apr
13-15,
2007

Apr
2-5,
2007

Mar
23-25,
2007

Mar
2-4,
2007

Feb
9-11,
2007

%

%

%

%

%

%

Hillary Clinton

60

58

58

57

59

67

Barack Obama

46

46

36

42

43

42

Al Gore

31

28

29

32

34

26

John Edwards

29

32

32

30

21

26

Bill Richardson

5

6

5

6

4

7

Joe Biden

4

3

4

3

4

5

Al Sharpton

2

4

1

1

2

1

Wesley Clark

2

3

5

3

3

3

Dennis Kucinich

1

1

1

1

1

1

Christopher Dodd

1

2

*

1

1

2

Mike Gravel

1

1

2

*

1

1

Tom Vilsack

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

1

Other

2

2

5

2

3

3

None

3

3

3

6

3

3

All/any

--

--

--

--

1

--

No opinion

4

3

5

4

7

4

* = Less than 0.5%

N/A = Not asked

Note: Percentages add to more than 100% due to multiple responses.

9. (Asked of Democrats and independents who lean to the Democratic Party)
Suppose the choice for the Democratic presidential nomination narrows down to Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama. Which one would you prefer the Democratic Party nominate for president -- [ROTATED: Hillary Clinton (or) Barack Obama]?

Slightly more Americans agree (52%) than disagree (45%) that the federal government is responsible for making sure all Americans have healthcare coverage. This balance of views is similar to last year.

Americans' daily self-reports of spending averaged $98 in November, up from $93 in October. The latest figure is the highest average recorded for the month of November since Gallup began tracking consumer spending in 2008.