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10 حزيران، 2005

Curtis RyanJune 10, 2005(Curtis Ryan teaches political science at Appalachian State University inNorth Carolina. He is the author of Jordan in Transition: From Hussein toAbdullah [Lynne Rienner, 2002]. He contributed this article from Jordan.)For weeks in the spring of 2005, banners advertising an internationalgathering at the Dead Sea resort of Shouna adorned every main street inJordan's capital city of Amman. The government was touting what it regardedas a significant national success: for the third year in a row, the lightlypopulated, resource-poor kingdom would host the high-powered World EconomicForum on May 20-22. Jordanian officials were also proud to be hosts of aconference of Nobel laureates convening in Petra around the same time. Asthe dates of the World Economic Forum approached, however, heavily armedsoldiers and commandos soon outnumbered the banners in the streets. Units ofthe Jordanian army and special forces spread out across the capital, postingarmored vehicles at all major interchanges.The shows of force may have been intended more to reassure the internationalvisitors than to intimidate the Jordanian population, but they underscoredhow political reform in this US-allied Arab state has repeatedly taken aback seat to the regime's plans for economic development. Since assuming thethrone upon the death of his father Hussein in 1999, King Abdallah II hasemphasized economic development above all things, with a particular focus onattracting foreign investment and manufacturing more goods for export. Theshowpiece achievements of Abdallah's foreign policy are Jordan's entry intothe World Trade Organization in 2000 and the Free Trade Agreement with theUnited States that took effect in 2001. Meanwhile, even as the Bushadministration and Western commentators herald an "Arab spring" ofdemocratizing change, political reform has stalled.

ONE STEP FORWARD, TWO STEPS BACK

Jordan's political liberalization process has surged forward and fallenbackward repeatedly since its inception in 1989. The Hashemite regime beganits experiment in limited democratization largely as an attempt to quellwidespread protests and rioting triggered by an austerity program prescribedby the International Monetary Fund and by charges of government corruption.The political opening proceeded apace until 1994, when King Hussein signed apeace treaty with Israel, whereupon the regime rolled back previous reformsin an effort to rein in dissent. With the 1999 royal succession, publicexpectations for reform increased.The regime's initial moves under the new king appeared to signal a solidcommitment to restarting the process of political reform. In the same yearof Abdallah's accession, municipal elections were held throughout thekingdom. In 2003, when Jordan held its fourth round of national parliamentary elections since 1989,the electoral law was supplemented by aroyal decree reserving six seats in Parliament for women. But for every movetoward liberalization, there have been corresponding signs ofdeliberalization. The 2003 parliamentary contests, originally scheduled for2001, were twice delayed. During the two years that Parliament was suspended, the king issued a series of controversial edicts creating"temporary laws" that, among other things, imposed additional restrictionson freedom of assembly and press freedoms. In 2002, prominent feministactivist and former parliamentarian Toujan Faisal was arrested and convictedof "defaming" the prime minister and the government. While Faisal was laterpardoned and released, she was barred from running in the 2003 elections.Today, pro-democracy activists complain of the increased role of theintelligence services (mukhabarat) in public life.

As political reform retreats, the regime's economic development prioritiesare increasingly clear in its government appointments, with top ministries going to business people and technocrats fond of neoliberal economics. Inthe words of one analyst, these new ministers amount to "liberalauthoritarians," in that they support economic liberalization far more than they do political reform. "The community running Jordan is made up of English-speaking people with PowerPoint presentations," he continued. "Even in government, they are still business people." Though many of these officials have previously served in government jobs, aconservative former prime minister suggested that the new ministers seem "more like Western consultants" than public servants.

Especially since the start of the liberalization process in 1989, theJordanian regime has allowed its critics room to dissent from its domesticpolicies, but has kept foreign policy -- or "national security" -- off limits to serious opposition. This general tendency was reinforced when the regime signed its peace treaty with Israel. Now, the Jordanian opposition increasingly finds that questions of economic policy are off limits as well.Given the international emphasis of the regime's economic ambitions --specifically, its emphasis on direct foreign investment, tourism andexport-driven development -- economic reform may be seen as an increasinglyinternational issue. The government's emphasis on economic developmenttherefore appears to be causally linked to the stalling of the politicalreform process.There may be an ethnic dimension to these dynamics as well. The publicsector has traditionally been dominated by the ethnic Transjordanians whomake up the regime's social base, while the private sector has tended to bea stronghold of Jordanians of Palestinian origin, many of whom aredescendants of refugees from the 1948 war or refugees from the 1967 war.Given the ethnic politics underlying the Jordanian political economy, even privatization, seemingly a purely domestic aspect of economic reform,carries a decidedly politicized tinge. It is difficult to even broach the subject of privatization without appearing to be adding to inter-ethnictensions or undermining the regime's "Jordan First" policy.

A TALE OF TWO CRISES

At the beginning of April 2005, King Abdallah appointed a new primeminister, Adnan Badran, to succeed the dismissed government of Faysalal-Fayiz. The Fayiz government had earned the ire of the king for failing toconvince the Arab League to revive the Arab peace initiative originally putforward by Saudi Arabia in Beirut in March 2002. Jordan's proposal to revivethe initiative, intended to assert diplomatic leadership for a regimemarketing its closeness to Washington, instead drew the derision of Arabdelegations who felt that such a move would reward Israeli military actionsagainst the Palestinians. Arab objections focused not only on the substanceof the Jordanian initiative, but also on the perceived inappropriateness ofits timing. Several veteran Jordanian policymakers shared this view. Butwithin Jordan, anger at the Fayiz government focused not on Arab summitry,but on the government's controversial attempts to change the laws onprofessional associations, political parties and the right of free assembly. The government submitted draft laws it insisted were cornerstones of Jordan's political reform program. But in each case the draft laws actually increased restrictions upon civil society.A draft law on political parties prohibited political and party activities from taking place in clubs,mosques and educational institutions. Parties would further be banned frompolitical activities within Jordan's professional associations. Theassociations, meanwhile, were to be the subject of still another draft law,curbing their political activities and even changing their leadershipselection procedures from direct elections by all members to selection bynebulous "commissions." Non-governmental organizations also came under thewatchful eye of the Ministry of the Interior, which announced its intentionto review carefully foreign sources of funding and even to shut down NGOssuspected of being overly susceptible to foreign influence.

Pro-democracy activists reverse the charge of foreign influence. In the words of one, "There is a huge gap between the king's reform rhetoric and the actual policies. It's like they are doing all this to impress theWest.... We are actually cutting back on the freedom of the people." The draft laws turned into a kind of showdown between the interior minister andthe professional associations, as well as influential parties such as theIslamic Action Front (IAF). With the dismissal of the Fayiz government,including his unpopular interior minister, Samir Habashneh, the lattergroups felt they had won a victory.

But soon angry parliamentarians were also mobilizing against the new Badran government, in a crisis that has yet to be resolved. By late May, the list of MPs in the lower house threatening to withhold their vote ofconfidencein Badran had grown to 48 out of 110. The MPs charged that the makeup of Badran's government had been sprung on them out of nowhere. They argued thatit under-represented almost the entire southern part of the country,especially ethnic Transjordanian strongholds such as Kerak. The primeminister insisted that the allocation of posts in the new government wasbased not on ethnic or geographic considerations, but rather on expertiseand qualifications. He thereby unwittingly insulted the entire parliament(none of whom were included in the cabinet) and perhaps even all of southernJordan.Members of Parliament objected not only to who was apparently excluded from the cabinet, but also to who was included -- specifically the cabinet's economic team with its neoliberal priorities. The main complaints center on the regime's emphasis on export-oriented growth, foreign aid and foreigninvestment, along with its lesser emphasis on social welfare and income distribution. Of the new team, by far the most controversial is current Minister of Finance Basim Awadallah. As a minister in the previous Fayizgovernment, Awadallah had managed, largely by his impatient manner, to antagonize many legislators. "The reformers in the government are just notcredible people," said one analyst. "Basim Awadallah may be brilliant. But the thrust of the no-confidence movement against the government is against him more than anyone or anything else."

With 48 MPs officially opposed to the new government, and 17 IAF members sitting on the fence, parliamentarians submitted a request for an extraordinary session. The extraordinary session would presumably be heldsometime during the summer, but in any case before the October 1, 2005 regular session is slated to begin. The king did not immediately respond,but did remark to the press that dissolving parliament was not an option.This remark suggested that the session will take place, but a no-confidencevote is not certain to be on the agenda, since the agenda is set by themonarchy.If a vote were held, the Badran government would almost certainly lose, inwhat would be a major defeat for the regime. Yet several other possibilities remain. Many pro-democracy activists expect that the mukhabarat will"cajole, persuade and perhaps even threaten" MPs to change their positions. Alternatively, a cabinet reshuffle prior to the vote could easily addressissues of representativeness of the south, while presumably replacing someof the most polarizing appointments. Finally, it is possible that the Badrangovernment could actually win the confidence vote, if the prime minister canpersuade IAF MPs to vote for him. In a series of meetings with the primeminister, IAF parliamentarians made several demands, includingimplementation of sharia law and abandonment of the peace treaty withIsrael. These measures have no chance of approval from the government, and so the IAF may in effect have to vote against the government in order simply to ensure some level of credibility. Indeed, the IAF may be under even more pressure to bolster its own credibility than is otherwise apparent, giventhat it is viewed by many Jordanians "on the street" as having been coopted by the regime.Yet the Islamist party may be willing to risk that credibility, if it can secure a commitment from the new government to abandon the draconian draftlaws on associations, parties and assembly. Since the IAF remains the country's best-organized political party, and since Islamists have won the elections for leadership of each major professional association, they wouldhave much to gain from such a reversal. Sadly, while the IAF has sounded decidedly progressive in its defense of the parties and associations, the party has echoed the state's reactionary line on NGOs, decrying the "foreigninfluences" on groups working under the "guise" of women's empowerment,democratization or human rights. Aside from this clear contradictionregarding civil society, however, the IAF may have worked its way into acorner in which it will lose something whichever way it votes on the Badrangovernment.

AN ERODING BASE?

While this wrangling continues, polling by Jordan's Center for StrategicStudies has shown a steady decline in public confidence in successivegovernments, including the new Badran administration. Public dissatisfactionappears to be based on a very accurate read of these government shifts aslittle but reshuffling and recycling of elites. There is also a basic demandfor democracy that may be reaching a kind of tipping point. Parliamentariansand civil society activists have increasingly called for a democraticallyelected government wherein the prime minister and cabinet would be drawn inlarge part from the elected parliament itself rather than appointed by themonarchy. The emphasis by some regime officials on the current crisis as anorth-south or even a Palestinian-Transjordanian issue may be intended todeflect the focus from this deeper issue of democratic representation. The"ethnic divide" remains the wedge issue in Jordanian politics; anyone who somuch as notes its existence can be made to appear backward-looking and evenun-Jordanian.What should be most troubling to the regime, however, is that these vocalobjections to its government choices are coming from a largely gerrymanderedparliament. Jordanian electoral districts are unequal in size, and theelectoral law over-represents rural conservative districts whileunder-representing urban areas that tend to be bastions of Palestinian or Islamist support. The strategy has worked as intended, yielding a parliament made up overwhelmingly of ethnic Transjordanian conservatives, and at times governed by tribal affiliations rather than secular left or religious right party loyalties. Yet it is this parliament that is on a collision course with the monarchy's chosen government. Critics within the parliament even include the powerful and conservative Transjordanian speaker, Abd al-Hadial-Majali.Opposition to the government's continued emphasis on economic over political reform has for some time included Jordan's fairly weak secular left parties as well as the more well-organized Islamist movement. The opposition is mainly opposition to policies and priorities, not opposition to the Hashemite state. Yet if this opposition to large aspects of the state's agenda is starting to include many elements of conservative, Transjordanian and even Bedouin society, then where exactly is the regime's base of support?Perhaps fearing an eroding political base, in early June King Abdallahissued a new order, setting aside shares of privatized companies to beoffered at reduced prices to past and present members of the securityforces. Like the public sector in general, the security forces tend to bebastions of ethnic Transjordanian power, and so the king's announcementappears to shore up this traditional base of the monarchy in a very materialway. The new policy applies to members (including retirees) of the publicsecurity department, the civil defense forces, the armed forces and themukhabarat. All are now eligible quite literally to profit from the privatization process. The policy may help the monarchy achieve three goals simultaneously: it allocates direct benefits to the domestic securityapparatus, it allows the economic reform process to continue and finally --and most importantly -- it may undercut much of the Transjordanianopposition to privatization and economic reform, as well as the currentslate of neoliberal ministers. راجع تعليقنا على هذه الخطوة

ANOTHER STORM TO WEATHER

In concert with such pork barrel politics, and in the absence of substantivepoliticalreform, the regime has launched a series of "initiatives"accompanied by major marketing campaigns that seem to play better withWestern creditors than with the Jordanian population. "Jordan First" was succeeded or at least augmented by "political development" and now the newcall is for a "national agenda" to be launched by September 2005.Pro-democracy activists in Jordan argue that these initiatives generateplenty of conferences and workshops, but little material change. Thequestion is how long the wheel spinning can continue, and for that matter,why it should. Even the regime would benefit from meaningful politicalreform that would buy it some popular support -- and thereby enhance itssecurity. Many Jordanians would be content with incremental progress."People are not in the streets here really," said one analyst. "This isn'tthe same as the Kifaya movement [in Egypt], at least not yet." But whetherbecause of resistance from the mukhabarat or for other reasons, the wheelskeep on spinning.As the crisis of confidence in the government continues at several levels,another crisis may loom ever closer. Previous bouts of unrest in thekingdom, such as the riots of 1989 and 1996, have often been triggered byausterity measures. But with the collapse of Saddam Hussein's regime and therise of a new Iraqi government, Jordan no longer gets its oil supplies atartificially low prices. Rather, Arab Gulf monarchies are increasinglycharging Jordan full prices, even as these skyrocket to previouslyunthinkable levels. The Jordanian government budget simply cannot absorb thedifference between the rising cost of imports and subsidized in-country oiland gas prices. Some "adjustment" of prices, probably over the summer, willlikely occur, possibly triggering unrest once again. International aid tomaintain current prices would avoid this scenario, but at present such adollar influx does not appear to be forthcoming. The already unpopularneoliberal and technocratic economic team in government may, in short, haveyet another storm to weather.-----For background on rollbacks of Jordanian liberalization, see JillianSchwedler, "Don't Blink: Jordan's Democratic Opening and Closing," MiddleEast Report Online, July 3, 2002.

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