Saturday, July 11, 2009

UFC 100 Predictions

Ok so tonight is the biggest night in UFC history as the organizations has reached its 100th PPV show. The card is stacked with some amazing fights to the point that even the undercard fights are going to be great. Hopefully some of the fights end quickly so we get to see some of the non televised fights. I will be watching the fights at Bryan "Don't Call me Tom" Cruse's place on his 50" plasma tv.

The way the card is set up it can either be an amazing night for me or a terrible one. The fights will be good no matter what but depending on the outcomes I will either be loving life or hating it.

Here are the match ups and my predictions:

Brock Lesnar (3-1) vs Frank Mir (12-3)

This is a rematch of a fight that occurred 17 months ago in which Lesnar was dominating Mir only to get tapped out by a knee bar. Many people attribute this to Lesnar's inexperience as this was only his 2nd professional MMA fight. Since then he has fought Heath Herring and Randy Couture and has looked impressive.

Mir is coming off a huge win over Antonia Rodrigo Nogueira in which he used his stand up, rather than his jiu-jitsu, to win the fight.

I am going to give the striking advantage to Lesnar since whenever he hits someone with his lunchbox sized hands they go down. Mir may be more polished on the feet but Brock's power will be too much to handle.

As for the ground game Lesnar's NCAA wrestling background has proven to be very useful and will come into play against Mir who prefers a ground game. Since Brock has had more time to train since their last fight I don't think he is going to get caught in a weak submission again.

Prediction: Lesnar via TKO in the 1st round

Georges "Rush" St. Pieree (18-2) vs Thiago "the Pitbull" Alves (22-4)

Many people are calling this the toughest fight in St. Pierre's career and I tend to agree. St. Pierre sually wins his fights due to his strength advantage and wrestling ability but in this case Alves is stronger.

Alves is a monster of a man and walks around at 200lbs and struggles to make weight at times. He is crazy strong and his take down defense is unreal. His biggest advantage over Georges, apart from his size, is his striking. He has knockout power in both hands, feet, and his leg kicks are among the best in the world.

Now having said all of that GSP is known for dominating people that are supposed to be "tough." In his last few fights he dominated BJ Penn and destroyed Jon Fitch. Both of these fights were supposed to be really hard for GSP but he made it look easy.

Back in 2006 Alves lost to Fitch so that is interesting. I think GSP will do what he always does and control Alves and force him to tap either from submission or strikes.

Prediction: GSP via Submission in the 3rd round

Jon Fitch (22-3 1 NC) vs Paulo Thiago (11-0)

In this fight Fitch looks to start back on the road to the welterweight title while Thiago looks to prove that his knockout victory over Josh Koscheck at UFC 95 wasn't a fluke (which I think it was).

Fitch is known for his wrestling while Thiago is better known for his brilliant ground game. This means that the fight will probably take place on the ground as that is where both fighters feel comfortable. However both men may want to neutralize the opponent and stay on the feet.

While Thiago has shown he is a tough guy Fitch has beaten some of the best fighters in the division and his only loss in the UFC was to GSP. Given the amount of experience I tend to side more with Fitch in this fight.

Prediction: Fitch via Unanimous Decision

Dan "Hendo" Henderson (24-7) vs Michael "the Count" Bisbing (18-1)

This is actually the fight I am most looking forward to as all this season of the Ultimate Fighter I had to listen to Bisbing run his mouth. I can't wait for Henderson to shut him up by knocking his ass out.

Bisbing talks like he is this great fighter but he has never beaten anyone that could be called a "good" fighter. His best win was over Matt Hamill and even that was controversial. He hasn't beaten anyone good and I see no way in which he wins this fight.

He claims that he is going to knock Dan Henderson out but that is laughable. Henderson has fought Anderson Silva, Rampage Jackson, and Wanderlei Silva and was not knocked out and has never been knocked out before. So I doubt Bisbing will be pulling off that feat.

Henderson has more power in his hands and is the better wrestler. Like I said I see no way in which Bisbing wins this fight other than a fluke punch, which Henderson has proven doesn't happen to him.

Prediction: Henderson via TKO in the 3rd round

Yoshiro Akiyama (12-1) vs. Alan "the Talent" Belcher (14-5)

Akiyama is supposed to be the UFC’s new big signing, but personally I just don’t see what the big deal is. He has spent the majority of his time fighting easy opponents in K1, his biggest victory is over Denis Kang and he has never fought a top fighter before.

Belcher isn’t a great fighter either, but he has at least defeated respectable opposition in the UFC like Jorge Santiago, Ed Herman, Kalib Starnes and submitted Kang last January. Belcher is supposed to be an easy victory for Akiyama, but I see Belcher spoling the party.

UFC Hall of Famer Mark Coleman made the drop from heavyweight to light heavyweight at UFC 93 where he lost to Shogun Rua. Coleman looked very tired in the 2nd and 3rd rounds as the weight cut combined with Coleman’s age proved to be too much for the former Ohio State Wrestling All-American.

Stephan Bonnar was completely dominated in his last bout by relatively unknown Jon “Bones” Jones at UFC 94. Bonnar, a crowd favorite, was out of commission for over a year prior to the Jones fight. No doubt the Las Vegas crowd will be looking for the return of the old American Psycho.

A loss by Bonnar would almost certainly end his UFC career. Coleman’s return to the UFC was a surprise to many but the drop to 205 lbs was even a bigger surprise.

Prediction: Bonnar via TKO in the 2nd round

Mac Danzig (19-6-1) vs. Jim Miller (13-2):

The winner of Ultimate Fighter Season 6, Mac Danzig is coming off consecutive losses to Clay Guida and Josh Neer dropping his UFC record to 2-2. Danzig has been somewhat disappointing since entering the Octagon as there was a lot of hype after he won the Ultimate Fighter.

Jim Miller, 2-1 in the UFC, is coming off a tough loss to Gray Maynard at UFC 96. Miller has won 9 of his 13 victories via submission.

Prediction: Miller via Submission in the 3rd round

Jon “Bones” Jones (8-0) vs. Jake O’Brien (11-2):

Jon “Bones” Jones burst on the UFC scene with a dominating performance against Stephan Bonnar moving his UFC record to 2-0 in the Octagon. Jones is an incredible story, his first pro fight was in April of 2008, he then fought 5 more times before making his UFC debut in August of 2008.

Jake O’Brien, 4-2 in the UFC, will bring his extensive wrestling skills into the Octagon. Jake has competed in the heavyweight division competing against the likes of Cain Velasquez, Andrei Arlovski and Heath Herring.