NZ First is expected to take one
seat off Labour once special votes are counted, maintaining
the election-night result that John Key’s National Party
will be able to govern alone, according to the combined
wisdom of the 8000+ registered traders on New Zealand’s
predictions market, iPredict. No electorate seats remain in
doubt. Bill English will remain Finance Minister, Te Ururoa
Flavell will become Maori Affairs Minister but the health
portfolio appears up for grabs. David Cunliffe has a 50%
probability of departing as Labour leader by the end of 2014
and an 83% probability of departing by the end of 2015.
Grant Robertson is the favourite to succeed him. Mr Key has
a 71% probability of remaining National Party leader at
least until the end of 2016. Paula Bennett is favoured to
succeed him should a vacancy arise. National is narrowly
favoured to win the 2017
election.

Politics:

•
Forecast party vote shares after special votes are counted
(major and minor parties, adjusted to sum to
100%):

• There is a 50% probability
David Cunliffe will depart as Labour
leader by end of year and an 83% probability he will depart
by the end of 2015

• Grant Robertson is favoured to become
the next leader of the Labour Party (47% probability),
followed by “other who WAS an MP on 30 September 2013”
(24%), followed by “other who was NOT an MP on 30
September 2013” (12%), followed by Jacinda Ardern (5%) and
David Parker (5%)

• John Key expected to remain National
leader until at least the end of 2016 (71%
probability)

• Paula Bennett is favourite to
become National Party leader if a vacancy
arises, (34% probability), followed by Steven Joyce
(33%), Bill English (12%), Simon Bridges (8%), followed by
“other” (7%), followed by Judith Collins (3%) and Hekia
Parata (3%)

• New Zealand is
not expected to be elected to the UN Security Council (with only 47%
probability of appointment) nor is Helen Clark expected to
be the next UN Secretary General (with only 38%
probability of appointment)

“The BPS and the Treasury’s Half Year Economic and Fiscal Update show we can deliver our promises while running sustainable surpluses and paying down debt...

“Today we are announcing the full details of the Government’s Families Package. This is paid for by rejecting National’s tax cuts and instead targeting spending at those who need it most. It will lift 88,000 children out of poverty by 2021." More>>

The spending lavished on Defence projects to meet the risks that could maybe, possibly, theoretically face New Zealand in future is breath-taking, given how successive governments have been reluctant to spend even a fraction of those amounts on the nation’s actual social needs. More>>

Today the Minister of Education announced that the Government has stopped the controversial National Standards system of assessment and declared them an arbitrary measure which did not raise children's achievement as the previous Government intended. More>>

The People’s Commission on Public Broadcasting and Media, was crowdfunded and was informed by an extensive consultation, seeking the views of both those working in Media as well as gathering input both online and in person from ordinary Citizens. More>>

ALSO:

Prime Minister Jacinda Adern was joined by Minister of Finance Grant Robertson and Minister for Children Tracey Martin to announce the appointment of Adrian Orr as the new Governor of the Reserve Bank and the name change of the Ministry for Vulnerable Children to ‘Oranga Tamariki - Ministry for Children’. More>>

‘Today, we learned the new government has added New Zealand’s name to a proposal designed to lead to foreign investment rules in the WTO at this week’s ministerial meeting in Argentina,’ said Auckland University Professor Jane Kelsey. More>>