NPD says Blu-ray going mainstream next year

According to a new NPD analysis, Blu-ray will finally break into the mainstream in 2010, especially as prices continue to drop.

The company researched consumers using Blu-ray set-top boxes (not including the PS3) in February 2008 and in August of this year, and the figures clearly showed that BD is out of the "early adopter" phase and into the "dreamers" phase which is the group that wants the new technology but are "deterred by price."

In the 2008 study, over 64 percent of users were early adopters, which only account for 20 percent of the entire market. By August however, the number had been reduced to 38 percent, and replaced by "dreamers" and "sensibles," a group full of middle aged families who like the technology but waited some time before investing. Those two groups account for over 40 percent of the entire market.

“In the last year, we have made great strides toward becoming mainstream, but we’re not quite there yet,” notes NPD analyst Russ Crupnick, via VB. “But going into the holiday season, we are seeing a combination of fairly reasonable price points on hardware and a lot of content. By February, after the holidays, it’s going to quickly look more and more mainstream. We are on that path.”

There are however still a decent amount of "late adopters" who do not care for the technology or are neutral. Neutral consumers are at 17 percent while "anti-tech" (users that frankly hate Blu-ray) are at 7 percent.

I'm too cheap, I think I'll stick to standard dvd which is good enough for me. It took me 10 years to move from beta to vhs. I'm in no hurry. When it cost the same as a regular dvd then it might be mainstream. Lot of cheap people out there just like me.

Originally posted by bomber991: I'd imagine if Blurays cost the same as DVD's, with only the players costing more, that there would be a bigger shift to blu-ray movies.

Agreed. I have a PS3 (primarily for gaming) and I don't have any Blu-Ray movies for it because they're like $30 each. Now if they were half the price I wouldn't mind paying, just because it's HD. If every movie I or my dad downloaded in a month was of HD quality I can't imagine how much we would be over our bandwidth limit at the end of the month... It's bad enough as it is. I don't now what the hell happened but some how I hit 60GBs in 2 weeks, everything since then until October we pay extra for (f*** you Cogeco and your new bandwidth policy) :S

Yes going to the movies is a great night out if you can put up with people shouting out during the film, coughing, mobile phones ringing, a seemingly endless stream of people getting up and walking past in the middle of the film, constant munching, crunching and rustling of packets and the best of all having the back of your seat kicked. Yeah the movies are a great night out. And did you actually say Blu-Ray has 'a slightly better picture' if so you should have gone to spec savers sonny jim, even upscaled DVD's dont come anywhere close to the picture quality of a full HD movie and as for costs how much does a trip to the cinema cost for two people after taking into account travel and tickets (not to mention the overprized food that seems to be compulsory). I'm sorry but it seems to me that you must have shares in a movie theatre either that or your just delusional.

This message has been edited since its posting. Latest edit was made on 27 Sep 2009 @ 5:56

I don't see Blu-Ray as a real alternative to going out to the movies to be honest. When I want a cheap alternative for watching movies, I download MKVs and XviDs. People go out to movies for the "night out" social experience, something that Blu-Ray can't re-create. This is why movie theatres are practically piracy-proof. Most people in my social circle download movies but they still go out to the movies. If I just wanted to watch a movie, MKV or XviD. If you have a PS3, save your Blu-Ray drive for the games. You don't want to have to pay a fortune to Sony to fix it for you because you've been wasting it on videos. This is a common issue you see on the forums. Get a standalone Blu-Ray player on the cheap if you must watch Blu-Ray videos. At least those have way more reliable Blu-Ray drives than the PS3.

Originally posted by g7h8: Yes going to the movies is a great night out if you can put up with people shouting out during the film, coughing, mobile phones ringing, a seemingly endless stream of people getting up and walking past in the middle of the film, constant munching, crunching and rustling of packets and the best of all having the back of your seat kicked.

I can't comment on the Bluray aspects of the article as i don't use them, however the above quote is word for word why i do my utmost to avoid going to the cinema, a load of money to 'spend' just for it to be spoilt by unruly kids/ignorant parents. No thanks.
When i was a kid going to the cinema was an infinitely better experience, partly because mobile phones hadn't been invented, plus maybe i'm getting old now but other kids at the time valued the price of admission so i don't recall much unruly behaviour back then.

This message has been edited since its posting. Latest edit was made on 27 Sep 2009 @ 11:59

Ill have to side with g7h8 on this one even if he did leave out the biggest problem, people bringing babies to the movies who cry off and on throughout the entire movie. A couple of years ago one of the major movie theater companies here where I live started to refuse entry into a movie after 8 or 9PM if you had a baby. That was a great time and I thought it really improved the movie going experience. But like all good things it had to end when someone threatened a lawsuit. I dont go to the movies anymore even though I would like to. The wife and I just watch on our 65" plasma and surround sound. Is it the complete threater going experience? No, but its close enough for us and we dont have to put up with all the distractions that g7h8 posted. I also think that movie theaters should be able to block cell phone signals so the idiots who have no respect for the poeple around them cant make or receive calls or text messages.

This message has been edited since its posting. Latest edit was made on 27 Sep 2009 @ 11:43

going to the cinema is a night out not just being some saddo sat in their home watchin the telly.

blu-ray is not an investment by any means of the word, its a overpriced media that gives very little benefit over upscaled dvd's on the average 32" screen at a ten foot viewing distance.

and thats another point that sony pr staff are keen to deny.

the price of blu-ray over dvd out-ways the minimal benefit of a slightly better picture. Once the price of blu-ray is the same as dvd it will be worth the up-grade.

btw good quality up-scaling dvd players in the UK start at £30 & dvd media starts at £1.99 upto £9 for a new release.

blu-ray players start at £150 and media is around £15 raising to £25 for new releases in retail stores.

I could go on all day telling the issue's with going to the movie theater.But let me give a example...I am Legend came out at the movies i paid 10 dollars a piece for me my wife & son that's 30 dollars right there.Then i paid another 20 for popcorn water etc that's fifty.Okay add on fuel cost & you will see where I'm going.When I am Legend was released on Blu-Ray Amazon had it for 17.99 on the day it was release so tell me which option you would choose ? Blu-Ray media is high but it depend on where you shop.

There is such a large collection of movies that I wanted that were released on HD DVD. I have about 50 now and I got them for about $3.00 each with shipping. I rip them to my NMT. No biggie. That's what I've done to avoid paying the high prices of Blu ray and still enjoy HD. My PS3 is my bluray player and I have a couple of recent blu releases, but the PS3 is really mainly for gaming. I'll buy blu once in a while, but only if I can score themovie for $10 used.

Originally posted by NexGen76:Blu-Ray is the way to go add in the cost going to movie theaters these days....The cost of a Blu-Ray is the best investment..

blu-ray is not an investment by any means of the word, its a overpriced media that gives very little benefit over upscaled dvd's on the average 32" screen at a ten foot viewing distance.

the price of blu-ray over dvd out-ways the minimal benefit of a slightly better picture. Once the price of blu-ray is the same as dvd it will be worth the up-grade.

btw good quality up-scaling dvd players in the UK start at £30 & dvd media starts at £1.99 upto £9 for a new release.

blu-ray players start at £150 and media is around £15 raising to £25 for new releases in retail stores.

DVD produces 408,960 pixels of info per frame. Bluray produces 2,073,600 pixels of info per frame. You dont think that is a big difference. I would be glad to do a money exchange with you.
Upscaled DVD is nothing more than stretching silly putty. You can make the silly putty picture bigger but lose definetion. Same goes for DVD upscaling.
On average, I pay $4 more for a Bluray disk than I would if I still bought DVD.
Bluray is becoming Main Stream but is still not for the poor, cheap or thoes without real HD. For those people, SD is good enough. I dont see why thoes people get upset because others prefer the Better things in life.

I just don't care. I'm somewhere in the "sensible" to "neutral" demographic according to this. The only $17 BD's I see are usually older movies that are in the $7.50 DVDbin. There are only a few movies I'd pay a 200% markup on to repurchase.

I avoid using credit cards like the plague (that they are) and only pay what I have cash for. I'm curious how many people who don't mind re-purchasing their whole collections of movies and paying large price increases are either single with few responsibilities or carry huge balances on their credit cards. There are much more important things in my life to pay for than some extra pixels in a picture.

Also...playing BD's is a great way to prematurely burn out the optics on your PS3. I halved the life of my PS2 watching DVD's on it years ago. I would never buy a PS3 to use as a BD player.

My upconverting DVD player may not produce a picture quality that is as good as Blu-Ray, but so what? When I watch a movie, I am not counting pixels; I am watchng the movie. From 10 feet away, my eyes don't see enough of a a difference to justify paying more for Blu-Ray.

I'll concede that it is better if you are comparing, but why not just phase out standard DVD and make Blu-Ray the norm at the same price.

Sony is ripping off gullible consumers by charging substantially more for a Blu-Ray disk that costs no more to produce than a standard DVD. If people wised up, the price would drop in a hurry.

Maybe I'm just lucky, but over here movies cost $3.50 per person at the most, in the theater. We also have bargain nights for a $1.50.
This site has plenty of stuff on how to circumvent copy protection, yet none of you seem to know how to circumvent a concession stand?
you sneak in your own food/pop if you really, and truly somehow MUST eat while watching a movie..

I don't go to the movies very often. I also don't go in the first few weeks of showing. That is when the kids go. I have heard the MKVs are only about 9g. Small enough to fit on a normal dual layer DVD. I suspect the BR is here just to extract more money out of the consumer.

If I go HD, it will be MKV or XviDs. I may not even get a BR player but a player with a USB reader. They will not make money on me.

creaky, spoken like a true old fart! Who knows, you might have thought the kids antics were funny 20 yrs ago. I really can't clearly remember 20 yrs ago so I will need to take your word for it.

xnonsuchx, spoken like someone not up to their eyeballs in responcibilities like over 80% of the world's population. Enjoy it while you can!

Originally posted by Mez: creaky, spoken like a true old fart! Who knows, you might have thought the kids antics were funny 20 yrs ago. I really can't clearly remember 20 yrs ago so I will need to take your word for it.

I can't remember the previous few days most times :p but yes, i was probably just as annoying as a kid (but can't remember anyway, i do remember that cinemas were exciting though

Originally posted by ssj4_2004: This site has plenty of stuff on how to circumvent copy protection, yet none of you seem to know how to circumvent a concession stand? you sneak in your own food/pop if you really, and truly somehow MUST eat while watching a movie..

Hehe nice one, i LOL'd :)
But very true, though i go to the flicks so very rarely that i don't mind buying nacho's with peppers, coke and popcorn, but if i went more often i'd definitely sneak my own in, the same goes for theme parks or other places that want you to buy their overpriced snacks and drinks

What is blu ray waiting for?
I have a blu ray and seldom use it because the blanks are very expensive.I buy sata Hard Drives very cheap 1.5GB and store all my pictures, HD videos from my camcorder and connect it to my 2 USB Media Players Wd and Zinwell and very happy with the quality and have no interest now in blu ray,They can knock down there prices now and I will still stick to my media players.Blu Ray got to greedy trying to make money.

You really think so? I am sure there is at least a 100 times mark up on the blanks. I am sure the theroy is when they get down to half that mark up, we will go crazy buying them up. The same for the movies. They really don't cost much more to make than a DVD movie.

I know a few that spent over 10,000 USDs on a system then have balked at the price of the movies. They only watch cable.

I am with you speedytv. I don't plan to buy a Blu-Ray until they get down to the price of the DVDs. If that is never that will be OK by me.

Originally posted by elitepunk: bluray can suck my butt. dvd ripz on 2002 20'' crt monitor is where its at lol...sorta kidding, although that is exactly what i do.

That’s probably the only way you’ll get lucky! :)

Blu-Ray is cheap these days if you do just a little research. I get hub printable BD25’s for around $2ea and I get movies including current ones as cheap as $10 but normally $10 to $20 but never above $25. You can still pay $20 or more for some DVD’s and their range for the same new release movies is around $15 to $20, that’s not much of a difference and you get sooooo much more with BD releases! Also I will save money in the long run as I won’t be buying the same movies 3 times over, which would be the case down the road if I were cheap. I’m not cheap I’m frugal there is a big difference and this is where common sense comes in. I also rent BD’s through Netflix’s which is really cheap so I have to say the time has come to move to Blu-Ray as NPD has also stated.

Going to the movies when I was a kid was a fun pleasurable experience for all, kids and parents as people were respectful unlike today, the ME society we are in. I’m not about to waste my good money to go see a show were people are being rude and the theater will not kick out disrupters. Going to the movies is not about a social experience and if you think it is you are one of those rude people disrupting everyone else’s experience. Going to a restaurant afterwards and discussing the movie or whatever would be a social experience.

This message has been edited since its posting. Latest edit was made on 02 Oct 2009 @ 14:40

this is important to me!! If, it was possible to make a backup of your store-bought-bluray disc, and if I could afford both a blu-ray player for my tv, and a blu-ray burner/drive for my computer, then by all means bring on the blu-ray, unfortunately I cannot at the moment, so its dvd-burner or nothin lol. :D
oh...and...lol bluray takes to long to download on my connection ;) thats why i prefer dvd rips.

This message has been edited since its posting. Latest edit was made on 02 Oct 2009 @ 14:08

Originally posted by NexGen76:Blu-Ray is the way to go add in the cost going to movie theaters these days....The cost of a Blu-Ray is the best investment..

blu-ray is not an investment by any means of the word, its a overpriced media that gives very little benefit over upscaled dvd's on the average 32" screen at a ten foot viewing distance.

the price of blu-ray over dvd out-ways the minimal benefit of a slightly better picture. Once the price of blu-ray is the same as dvd it will be worth the up-grade.

btw good quality up-scaling dvd players in the UK start at £30 & dvd media starts at £1.99 upto £9 for a new release.

blu-ray players start at £150 and media is around £15 raising to £25 for new releases in retail stores.

DVD produces 408,960 pixels of info per frame. Bluray produces 2,073,600 pixels of info per frame. You dont think that is a big difference. I would be glad to do a money exchange with you.
Upscaled DVD is nothing more than stretching silly putty. You can make the silly putty picture bigger but lose definetion. Same goes for DVD upscaling.
On average, I pay $4 more for a Bluray disk than I would if I still bought DVD.
Bluray is becoming Main Stream but is still not for the poor, cheap or thoes without real HD. For those people, SD is good enough. I dont see why thoes people get upset because others prefer the Better things in life.

Gawd I love it.. if you buy it you'll see it is well WORTH IT my my my. What a diff. in fact satellite HD looks like crap after you own it you will USE IT.

blu-ray is already dead. I have hundreds of movies stored on a western digital 2Tb hard drive, connected to the tv with a western digital media player, and a smallish collection on dvd of what I consider classics because they look nice on the shelf. "If" blu-ray was a success, I still wouldn't go for it because in a few years there would be another format that I would have to upgrade to yada yada yada. I reckon the future is a tv connected to the internet, and a server under the stairs.

The 'other shoe' is a cable adaptor/power supply that will attach a raw HD to a USB port. They will connect any SATA or IDE device. They can be had for under 20 USD. This allows you to use junk HDs for off line storage. I have several TBs of these collecting dust that I am too cheap to throw away. You do not even have to pay for an extrenal box. I plan to copy from the raw HDs to a boxed external for use. The raw HDs will be used as a wharehouse. A 500g holds 50 - 60 HD movies. I have 3 500s and a few smaller junk drives. That is a lot of movies for spending $20!

SABRENT make 2 such devices USB-DSC5 & SATA-C35U. There are other comperable devices.