Despite an uptick after a wave of sickness outbreaks across the
country over the past two years appeared to subside, a fresh
norovirus outbreak in Virginia last month sent online review
ratings - and the restaurant's stock - plummeting once again.

source

UBS

UBS also analyzed the frequency of references to "lines" as a
proxy for traffic. That analysis also represented bad news for
Chipotle.

"Notably, 'line' mentions have hit historic lows recently, with
the share of reviews mentioning 'line' now below the post-food
safety incident bottom," UBS said. "A portion of the decrease in
mentions could be attributed to increased digital utilization,
improved operations, and throughput gains, but could also suggest
that restaurant lines are not building, with sales volumes still
relatively low."

The bank sees limited evidence that same-store sales could
surpass Wall Street expectations next year, as sales initiatives
like coupons and ad spots draw in traffic. Here's how the bank
sees online review scores over time:

"However," the bank warns, "the efficacy of the advertising
campaign, uncertain timing of new menu items, cadence of price
increases, and impact from recent negative illness incident press
limits visibility."

"I think that a lot of it just has to do with the fact that
people are very acutely aware of what happened at Chipotle in
2015," said Bill Marler, a food safety advocate and attorney. "To
have a norovirus outbreak, E. coli outbreak, salmonella outbreak
within months of each other is unprecedented. So, I
think that, along with media and social media, heightened
people's attention."

Chipotle stock is currently trading at $343 per share, 17% below
it's 12-month high of $499. UBS's price target is $380.