Sunday, October 28, 2012

As you’re sitting down with your morning cup of coffee to
enjoy this Lazy Sunday, I am currently walking around downtown WashingtonD.C.
with approximately 100,000 of my closest friends, hoping to spot one person in
a crowd of 30,000. Why you ask? Well, my 55-year old father is running the
Marine Corps Marathon, his first effort at the famed 26.2 mile distance. He’s
run a half-marathon before and was up over 20 miles in training, so he expects
to finish and finish well. Meanwhile, I spent my “training” period plotting the
best way to smuggle a 6-pack of Great Lakes into the city without being noticed.
So while I’m feeling extremely lazy this morning watching the old man run
farther in 3+ hrs than I’ve run in the last month, I also feel extremely proud.
With that said, let’s get to what you really came here for today, and that’s
the goings on in and around the Indians this past week…

Like it or not, much of the Indians-related discussion from
the fanbase this time of year revolves around the club’s payroll and what
pieces might be added in the offseason. As usual, the Indians project to be
much more active on the trade front than in free agency due to budget
limitations, even with a significant chunk of change coming off the books this
winter. Revenue sharing only goes so far, and Bloomberg.com reports that the LA
Dodgers have found a loophole in the system which could generate upwards of
$100 million per year in unshared dollars for the franchise that was just
purchased for $2.15 billion. The loophole lies within the creation of a
regional sports network (RSN) similar to YES, NESN and yes, STO, that the club
would decide how to distribute the equity gained from the club-owned RSN. YES
and NESN generate hundreds of millions of dollars per season in subscriber fees
for their respective teams, even if that’s not reported as actual baseball
revenue. STO lags well behind these networks due to the sheer number of
subscribers, something that’s not going to change anytime soon. Baseball Prospectus’ Maury Brown breaks it down here far better than I can:

This is a real issue, not only in terms of the Dodgers but
others as well. After all, the capacity to really make club-owned RSNs work
means a combination of a large market
and, more often than not, a storied franchise. Alone, these two things
already give a club advantages over smaller market teams. The club-owned
“loophole” just adds to it. League officials would never say as much, but if
you could get them alone in a room, it’s possible that even they see the flaw.

Focus on this out of the Bloomberg piece: the Dodgers are
going to pay revenue-sharing on every penny that comes into their coffers
through media rights. They wouldn’t, however, have to pay revenue-sharing on
any equity should they start an RSN with a partner such as FOX or TWC. Consider
this “proliferation”—another big-market,
storied franchise being able to move money from one hand to the other. After
all, the Yankees and Red Sox have been doing it for years.

So while the Indians will be collecting significant dollars
through MLB’s revenue sharing program, those dollars go to every team around
baseball. Meanwhile, “storied franchises” in “large markets” will continue to
exploit a growing loophole around these revenue sharing agreements, further
widening the gap between the haves and have nots around the game of baseball.In a later article, Brown breaks down the payrolls around baseball and discusses how much of an advantage a big payroll really is. He comes to a
similar conclusion that has been alluded to in this space by both Paulie and
myself in the past; money helps cover up mistakes, but does not in and of
itself assure success.

What money really gives you is flexibility. It allows you a
greater chance of being competitive now and sustaining that competitiveness in
subsequent years.

The problem has always been the ability of each of the 30
clubs to have a steady flow of revenues to work from. Yes, everyone is pulling
in record revenues, but not all at the same rate. The key is "cost certainty." Clubs that have generational fan bases—Yankees, Red Sox,
Phillies, Cubs, etc.—will, for the most part, generate a fairly steady flow of
ticket revenues. When you throw in media
rights (see recent television deals for the Rangers, Angels, and soon the
Dodgers), it becomes a formidable force that the likes of TampaBay, Pittsburgh,
and Kansas City
can’t compete with. Those teams have to rely on the draft process, and
certainly the Rays have shown that you can actually be competitive for more
than a season or two under these constraints, but it isn’t easy and it’s not
something to expect from every club. A club has to be smart. A club has to be
positioned to spend when it can spend. And for heaven's sake, a club can’t be
in a lengthy rebuilding process to do it. In other words, if a club is in the
cycle, it can’t make too many mistakes that inhibit its ability to spend what
little it may have available in the free agency space when the opportunity
presents itself.

Cost certainty is a theme that’s been pushed by the Indians
front office since the negotiations with C.C. Sabathia. It’s a theme that was
re-enforced after the Hafner contract, and as you’ll see later in this article,
it’s a theme that the club continues to stress to this day. It’s something that
the Indians just don’t have, because they have neither a large generational fan
base nor significant dollars flowing in from media rights. And when you compare
the Indians to some of the teams that have both of those inherent advantages,
it helps illustrate why the team simply can’t compete in the free agent market.
It puts the onus squarely on amateur talent acquisition, and all but requires
the team to be leaders in the international market as well as the Rule 4 draft.

ESPN’s Jim Bowden takes a predictably broad look at “how theTigers were built,” focusing on five key personnel moves that helped the Motor City Kittes to the World Series. What’s really interesting is that the Tigers,
who are one of the few teams around baseball who are deficit spending and there
are some truly special circumstances there, are not a team built on free
agency. Prince Fielder was one of the few Tigers contributing to this year’s
team who was acquired via free agency. The other four moves Bowden discusses
are either shrewd trades or draft picks (Verlander). Now, the Tigers were fortunate
that Verlander “fell” to the #2 pick in the draft back in 2004, but still give
them credit for making the right pick. The move that really sticks out for me
is the trade that netted the Tigers Doug Fister. The Indians of course made a
deal for a starting pitcher at that time as well, dealing more than the Tigers
gave up for a pitcher who has performed far, far worse than Fister since he
made his way to Detroit. The Fister deal is the type of trade the Indians used
to make with Seattle.
Instead, Ubaldo made his way to the North Shore at the cost of the Indians top
two pitching prospects. Pomeranz and White aren’t exactly setting the world on
fire out in Colorado just yet, but the reality is that those were the Indians
top two trade chips at the time, and there’s nothing to show for them. I agree
with the premise behind the Ubaldo deal, as the Indians had a chance to make a
push for the playoffs and needed an ace. But the execution was beyond terrible,
as the team acquired a player who was and remains broken, for whatever
reason(s).

Q: That was a decade and a half ago, really. Fifteen years. Do you think
people, the general populace still judges in those terms?

A: I think it frames that very guttural reaction, like, "Hey, if you
win it's already been shown people will come." That's what you hear all
the time.

Q: Do you believe that?

A: I think more people will come. But
the challenge is 2.2 million instead of 1.6 million doesn't change the way we
operate. Even that extra 500,000, 600,000 people, even if that's $10-to-15
more million in revenue a year . . . one win in free agency is $9 million. So
you're not going to change the context. Again, I don't think people want to
intellectualize baseball, and I don't believe you should have to
intellectualize baseball . . . and we've made a conscious decision in most of
our interviews not to get into these topics and just stay positive and talk
about what our aspirations are.

But that revenue swing between 1.5 million in attendance and 2.2 million in
attendance . . . meaningful dollars but not
dollars that will have us plan dramatically different.

Q: It wouldn't change the
amount of money spent?

A:It would change the amount of
spent to 15 million dollars a year. What does that buy you in free agency? Very
little. One and a half wins.

Q: How is that figure determined?

A: Our analysts can put a value on what it costs in free agency to sign
a player and what that means in Wins Above Replacement and what those players
end up costing in free agency and that changes every year. They measure all the
players signed in free agency and what their history has been and what they
offer going forward and they place a value. The challenge in free agency is you're often paying for that in the
first year of a contract, and in the out years of a contract the players WAR
usually goes down because he's usually past his prime. So it becomes a less
efficient contract over time. That's why free agency is never the best way to
build. It's a good way to supplement but not build.

The Indians drew approximately 1.6 million fans last season.
The last time they drew over 2 million was back in 2008, on the heels of 2007’s
ALCS collapse. But as Shapiro details, even if the Indians win, and even if
that winning translates to a 30-40% increase in ticket sales, that does not
give the club resources for a spending bonanza. And I don’t think many of us
are predicting a significant bump in attendance next year, let alone another
30%. If and when that attendance bump does occur, it provides revenue to
augment the existing roster in the season after the increase in ticket sales,
much like we saw in 2008 with the signing of free agent closer Kerry Wood. But
it’s never going to result in the club becoming a significant player in the
free agent market. By definition, free agents are usually paid more than they
are worth because of the bidding process on the open market. Because of that,
one bad deal (see Hafner, Travis) can really destroy any ability a club like
the Indians has to augment the roster with even medium-sized pieces. And even a
deal that’s “fair” when it is signed will generally become an albatross by the
end of the deal, which is why the Indians were so reluctant to offer Josh
Willingham a third year in free agency. Speaking of Willingham, Shapiro talks
about him as well:

Q: This is the hot guy and the topic now, so I'll admit that. But a guy like
(Josh) Willingham. Did he over-perform what you expected?

A: Yeah, he had the best year of his career, so he over-performed what
anyone expected him to do this year (2012).

Q: You couldn't know because it was a unique year, but had you guessed
that would you have been more willing to . . .

A: Well we offered him more than he signed for. We just didn't offer
three years.

Q: And what was the thinking in not offering the three years?

A: Just our adversity to risk, probably. Our understanding of what a poor performing contract can do to our
ability to operate and maneuver.

That understanding was earned the hard way, through the free
agent signings of Hafner and Westbrook, two guys who promptly went out and hurt
themselves significantly after signing their guaranteed contracts. Not to beat
the free agent horse to death, but there’s one more section of the interview
that I found particularly illuminating with respect to how this front office is
going to operate for the foreseeable future:

Q: From my point of view the perception that the team may be fighting is
created as much by trading Cy Young winners two years in a row. That generates
feelings of, "Geez they can't keep these guys, they can't compete."
More so than almost the ‘90s thing

A: We're not going to be able to sign these guys to extensions.
We're not trying to hide from that. That creates circumstances where we have to
make decisions about when the right juncture is to either let them walk away or
to trade them. It doesn't mean we won't continue to try to sign guys. Periodically
it doesn't mean that occasionally we won't be able to do it. It's going to take
always some sharing of the risk and some desire for a guy to want to be here
and placing a premium on that. If a guy places a premium on wanting to be here
and we feel it's the right kind of guy, it's still a possibility. But as a general premise when guys reach
free agent years it's going to be a challenge. We're not running from that.
We're going to have him for six years at a minimum, maybe longer, and we have
to have more talent coming up.

As soon as a player makes it to the corner of Carnegie and Ontario, that clock
starts ticking. The club has a 1-3 year window to make a decision on whether or
not they want to try and buy out a player’s arbitration years, usually with a
year or three of free agency as well. But if that doesn’t happen, and if the
player develops into the star everyone wants him to be, the Indians are going
to have to trade or lose the player to free agency. That is a harsh admission
for the team president to make, and it’s a difficult reality for most fans to
accept. It really drives home the “cheering for laundry” philosophy, and that
hurts fans attachment to the players and the organization, which in turn lowers
revenue from ticket and merchandise sales which makes it less likely for the
organization to be able to keep the next free agent. It’s a vicious circle, one
that I just don’t see changing without radical alterations in revenue sharing
and/or the implementation of a salary cap. Also, it's tough to read that response without thinking about one S.S. Choo, who may not be long for this organization as the Boras client is all but assured to "test the waters" in free agency.

Moving on from free agency, the interview looks at talent
acquisition in both the trade market, international signings and of course the
amateur draft:

Q: Are you satisfied with the way
player evaluation has gone, for the past five years, let's say.

A: You know, the context for evaluating those things is very
difficult. It's very hard to do in one moment in time. You've almost got to
take a business look. And you can't ask that question so broadly.

For example, I think the last three
years, our drafts based on the expected value of our picks have been very good.
The prior five to six years before that, certainly we did not have good drafts.
And we're suffering for that now to some extent.

Yet you evaluate our trades compared to other trades, we were very successful
in our trades. Among the more successful teams. Internationally we've done
well.

We need to do very well on every side of
player acquisition. We can't do well in two out of three.

I think we've made adjustments to the way we draft, the way we strategize. And
I think we've had more successful drafts the last three years. If our drafts
continue to be as successful and productive and we get players from those
drafts playing in the big leagues as quick as the guys we have right now
contributing, and we continue to do that, then we'll be in much better shape
going forward.

Shapiro’s assessment that the team’s Rule 4 drafts were
pretty bad, but have picked up in the past three years pretty much mirrors the assessment that I put forth back in August. I think that the club did a
terrible job acquiring amateur talent when Doug Mirabelli ran the show, and
think they’ve done a much, much better job since Brad Grant took over.
Unfortunately, even as the drafts were getting better, the trades were getting
worse. Instead of flipping less-significant pieces for major building blocks
(Benuardo for Choo and Asdrubal, Blake for Santana etc), the club got less than
full value for two Cy Young Award winners, and then of course made the
well-intentioned but ill-fated Ubaldo Jiminez deal. As Shapiro himself says
(and it bears repeating), “We need to do very well on every side
of player acquisition. We can't do well in two out of three.” Also significant is the number
Shapiro used…three. As he sees it, there are only three real options for player
acquisition, and one of them is not free agency.

Much as we started on a personal note, I’m going to close on
one as well. I have a late-Sunday night flight out of DC to London-Heathrow
where I will spend the next 3 or so weeks on a work trip. I’d like to promise
you a Lazy Sunday for those three weeks, but the facts are I just don’t know
how much free time I’m going to have to write. So while I’ll do my best to get
something up every week, there’s a possibility that one or more of those Sundays
won’t have the usual post. Please stick with me either way, as I’ll be back in
mid-November and be on a much more regular schedule at that time. And if
there’s anything I can pick up for you in the UK, drop me a line!

Wednesday, October 24, 2012

For this iteration of the mid-week prospect report, I
thought we’d take a look at five guys who exceeded my pre-season rankings in
2012 as well as five guys who fell short of expectations. I’m not talking about
a guy who’s going to move from 11th to 9th this
offseason, but guys who really had boom-or-bust seasons this year. I haven’t
done my traditional offseason top-51 countdown yet, so this will serve as a
primer for where you can expect certain players to end up on that list when it
comes out closer to spring training. So here are ten (or so) guys that I was
wrong about for one reason or another. We’ll start with the five guys who
improved their prospect standing this season, and then move to five (or so) who
are sliding backwards.

Jordan Smith, OF/INF: Drafted out of Division II St. Cloud State in Minnesota, Smith had a solid debut with the short-season Mahoning Valley Scrappers in 2011 with a .300 batting average in 65 games. His power really never manifested itself in game conditions though, as Smith didn’t hit a single HR and posted just a .391 SLG in 243 AB with the Scrappers. The lack of power combined with his uncertain future defensively combined to have me rank him as the #43 prospect in the Indians system. The Indians decided that as third basemen go, Smith is a nice RF so he was transitioned full-time to the OF this season, but his bat took a big step forward in the difficult offensive environment of the low-A Midwest League. Playing in 116 games for the Lake County Captains, Smith put up a line of .316/.367/.453 with 9 HR, 23 2B, 7 3B and 74 RBI. He walked 35 times while striking out just 52, and played a respectable RF to boot. His smooth lefthanded swing is a thing of beauty, and looks remarkably similar to Lonnie Chisenhall’s when The Chiz was in Kinston. It still doesn’t generate a ton of loft, but he does a nice job barreling up the baseball and has developed at least gap power. His 9 HR were good for 3rd on the team (just 3 behind team leader Alex Lavisky), which helps put his seeming low power output into better context. In fact, only one player in the entire Midwest League hit more than 19 HR on the season, and Smith’s .820 OPS was good for 9th in the league. His bat should play, and he has the arm and athleticism for RF. He’ll rank much higher than #43 in a few months.

T.J. House, LHP:
Coming off of a disappointing 2011 when he went 6-12 with a 5.19 ERA repeating
high-A Kinston, I ranked House all the way down at the #49 spot in the
organization. He had trouble repeating his mechanics and his command suffered,
and everything just snowballed from there. I noted that House was reportedly in
the best shape of his career heading into spring training in 2012, and that he
was a prime candidate to bounce back with a strong performance. Well, House
came through in a big way, as he went a combined 10-5 with a 3.56 ERA, 116 K
and 50 BB in 149 1/3 IP between Carolina and Akron this year. House
lost over 20lbs heading into spring training in 2012, and went back to more of
a ¾ delivery similar to the one he used in high school down in Mississippi. His walk rate
dropped, his K rate went up, his GO/AO ratio improved and he kept the ball in
the ballpark, giving up 3 less HR in 19 1/3 more IP than in 2011. All in all,
it was an impressive season for the young lefty, who turned 23 just a few weeks
ago. House is pitching well in the elite Arizona Fall League right now, and
will definitely rank at least 30 spots higher in my countdown this offseason.

Danny Salazar, RHP:
Salazar pitched just 14 innings in 2011 after his 2010 was cut short by an
elbow sprain that eventually resulted in Tommy John surgery. It’s always tough
to rank a pitcher coming off a serious injury, and based on his limited track
record and the fact that he’d just had TJ, I ended up ranking Salazar as the
#44 prospect in the organization. The Indians played it extremely carefully
with Salazar this year, having hin throw a total of 87 2/3 IP between Carolina and Akron.
When he was on the mound though, Salazar was nothing short of outstanding.
Running his fastball as high as 98 MPH, Salazar went 5-2 with a 2.36 ERA,
recording 76 K and issuing 27 BB. The command for a young player coming off TJ
is especially encouraging, as was his showing in AA Akron. Salazar was the best
pitcher down the stretch for the Eastern League Champion Aeros, going 40- with a
1.85 ERA in his 6 starts in AA (34 IP). The kid gloves should be off for
Salazar in 2013, and I’m really excited to see what he can do with a full
season’s worth of starts. Salazar won’t turn 23 until January, and could be a
badly-needed power righthanded arm who should stick in the rotation.

Tim Fedroff, OF:
Looking at Fedroff’s 2011, I still saw a guy who was likely to be a 4th
OF in the major leagues. He hit .308/.385/.408, but with just 3 HR in 132 games
between Akron and Columbus. He was more of a “tweener,” not
quite fast enough to play CF, not quite powerful enough for an OF corner. All
the 25-year old OF did in 2012 was go out and have his best season as a
professional, putting up an eye-popping .325/.393/.517 line with 9 HR and 32
RBI in 69 games for AAA Columbus after being promoted from AA Akron mid-season.
Fedroff’s previous season high in HR
was 4, so the 12 he hit between Akron and Columbus last season
tripled that mark. Fedroff finished just short of the number of AB needed to
qualify for the league leaders in the International League, but his .910 OPS
would have been 2nd, .517 SLG would have been 3rd, and
his .325 AVG would have led the entire league. Those numbers are impressive any
way you slice it, and his road batting line was as good or better than his
numbers in cozy Huntington Park.
Fedroff couldn’t have picked a better time to have a career year, as the
25-year old is getting towards the age where he is going to have to produce at
the major league level or be faced with the prospect of becoming a career minor
league player. Fedroff should be in the mix for an OF job in spring training
this year, and I really hope his stellar 2012 can carry over to Goodyear in
2013 and he can win a spot on the 25-man roster at the outset of the season.

Dorssys Paulino, SS:
I didn’t really know what to expect out of Dorssys Paulino in 2012. He was the
Indians big $$ signing out of the Dominican Republic last fall, commanding a
$1.1 million bonus as a 16-year old infielder, and played the entire 2012
season at age 17. My budget here does not include scouting trips to the
Dominican (unfortunately), so I had obviously never seen Paulino play baseball
with my own eyes until after my rankings came out last March. I slotted him in
at #17 based on some glowing scouting reports, but was uncomfortable ranking
him any higher based on the simple fact that I’d never seen him even so much as
pick up a baseball. Well, it turned out that the ranking was way too conservative,
as Paulino put up video-game numbers as a 17-year old in the Arizona Summer
League and is a no-doubt top 5 player in the organization right now. In 41 Arizona games this
summer, Paulino hit a robust .355/.404/.610 with 6 HR, 14 2B, 6 3B and 9 stolen
bases. Most impressively, he walked 15 times while striking out just 31, a
pretty good ratio for a Dominican-born player in his first stateside action.
Paulino moved up to MahoningValley at the end of
2012, and hit a respectable .271/.306/.407 with a HR and 8 RBI in 15 games with
the Scrappers. There’s some doubt as to whether Paulino’s glove will play at SS
long-term, but that’s a potential superstar with the bat no matter where he
plays in the field. A lot can happen between Arizona
and Cleveland,
but Paulino’s success at such a young age is an extremely encouraging sign for
his future in the organization.

So that's it for the good news. Now for some of the players who took a step backwards in 2012:

Jake Lowery, C: I
had high hopes for Lowery heading into 2012, and not just because of my
well-documented affinity for catchers. Lowery won the Johnny Bench Award in
college while at James Madison in 2011, given to the nation’s top collegiate
catcher. The Indians snagged him in the 4th round of the draft that
year, then sent him straight to the New York-Penn League to get his feet wet as
a professional. Lowery got off to a hot start with the Scrappers and was named
to the NYPL All-Star team, and finished with a .245/.377/.415 line with 6 HR in
29 games. I expected Lowery to build on that after an offseason to rest and
recuperate, and ranked him as the #16 prospect in the Indians organization. The
2012 season was not kind to Lowery however, as he put up just a .640 OPS in 59
games with the high-A Carolina Mudcats before being sent down to low-A Lake
County to try and rediscover his swing. Lowery continued to struggle in low-A
initially, but got hot in the last month of the season to finish with a
.248/.358/.504 line with 7 HR in 29 Midwest League games. Overall, he posted a
.730 OPS between the two leagues, and caught 24 of 82 (29%) of would-be basestealers.
Lowery turned 22 in July, and has both the talent and the mental toughness to
bounce back from his sub-par 2012. But he’s not going to rank in the top-20
prospects in the organization again until he can prove that he can get it done
both at and behind the plate for a full season and not just a month or two.

Felix Sterling, RHP:Sterling was
one of the guys on my “must see” list coming into 2012. I was tantalized by the
reports of a 6’3”, 18-year old righthander throwing consistently in the
mid-90’s and ranked him as my #11 prospect in the org, saying that I thought he
could develop into at least a #2 at the big-league level down the road. Sterling spent most of
2012 in low-A Lake County, where he struggled to an overall record of 4-8 with
an ugly 6.58 ERA in 93 innings with the Captains. He struck out 71, but walked
40 and ended up allowing more than 1.5 baserunners per inning on average. Sent
down to the complex leagues to find himself, Sterling pitched well, going 3-0
with a 1.66 ERA while striking out 31 and walking just 7 in 21 2/3 IP. Any hope
that he’d turned a corner was dampened back in LakeCounty though, as Sterling gave up 13 hits and 8 ER in his
final two appearances (4 IP) with the Captains. A National League scout that I
talked to in June said that Sterling
didn’t really impress him from a scouting standpoint either, remarking that he
really didn’t have an effective secondary pitch to rely on so hitters were able
to just sit on his fastball. The scout said that he had Sterling graded as a future reliever, and
that plus the poor performance will leave him well short of the top-20
prospects in the organization this year.

Robel Garcia, INF:
I ranked Garcia in the #12 spot on my list last year, thinking that his 2011
showing in the Arizona Summer League was a harbinger of an infielder with
prodigious power and an advance approach. As a 17-year old in AZ, he hit 6 HR
and drew 23 BB on his way to a .910 OPS in the complex leagues, and the Indians
aggressively started him in the low-A Midwest League in 2012. His time with LakeCounty
was rocky at best, as he hit just .210/.298/.309 with 3 HR in 63 games. Demoted
to MahoningValley when the NYPL started up, Garcia
fared little better, hitting .227/.312/.293 with no homers in 56 games for the
Scrappers. I wasn’t the only one fooled by Garcia’s potential in 2012, as the
lead minor league writer for Baseball Prospectus, Jason Parks, sums up his own feelings on Garcia here:

2012 was a disaster for the young prospect,
first bombing in his full-season debut and then bombing after getting demoted
to the short-season New York-Penn League. His bat was just very weak, both in
the ability to make contact and in the ability to make hard contact. He still
showed a plan at the plate, which is a positive we can take away from his
season, but it’s hard to find many positives outside of the basic developmental
steps that can occur in the face of poor production. Based on what I’ve seen,
I’m still a fan of the hands and the juice in the bat, but I was clearly too
quick on the prospect gun, and Garcia’s disappointing campaign left my
prognostication exposed. Was I wrong? I’m not sure. But I wasn’t right about
his immediate progression. Whoops.

Whoops is right. Hopefully he can
bounce back in a big way in 2013, but 2012 was all but a lost season for the
young Dominican infielder.

Dillon Howard, RHP:
The Indians 2nd round pick in 2011 was paid like a 1st
rounder, as the Indians signed Howard to a well-over slot bonus of $1.85
million. Showing a maturity beyond his years, the 19-year old Howard donated a
portion of that bonus to the Milestones Autism Organization in Cleveland in honor of his younger brother,
who has autism. He was seen as one of the more advanced prep arms in the 2011
draft, and projected by many as a 1st round pick. I tabbed him as
the #2 prospect in the organization based on near-universal glowing scouting
reports. Howard signed too late to pitch in 2011, and was expected to make his
debut in the Midwest League sometime in early 2012. A couple of nagging spring
training injuries slowed his timetable considerably, as the Indians were
understandably cautions with their big $$ arm. Howard didn’t pitch in game
situations until the complex leagues started up in 2012, and when he did
finally get into game action, the results weren’t pretty. Howard appeared in 12
games in Arizona,
going 1-7 with a 7.90(!) ERA. He recorded 35 strikeouts and issued 18 walks in
41 IP. Worse even than the numbers were the discouraging scouting reports, with
ESPN’s Keith Law remarking that Howard, “was very disappointing, working at
87-90 mph, and his arm looked slow or tired. He was substantially better than
that as an amateur.” Time will tell whether Howard can bounce back, as talent like his does not
simply vanish over the course of several months. A healthy spring training
should catapult Howard to the Midwest League in early 2013, but 2012 was
essentially a lost year for the young righthander.

Austin Adams/CC
Lee/Jason Knapp, RHPs: These three are kind of a cop-out, as all three fell
due to the same reason; injury to their respective throwing arms. Knapp hasn’t
thrown a pitch in anger since 2010, but his elite potential still had me
ranking him as the #20 guy in the org. The Indians an Knapp parted ways in
2012, and he’s an extreme long shot to ever pitch again. C.C. Lee went down
with an elbow injury in spring training last year, so my #8 prospect never
threw an official pitch in 2012. He still has potential as an elite reliever,
especially against fellow righthanders, but who knows what he’ll be able to do
in 2012. Austin Adams was my #4 guy last year, but a myriad of shoulder
injuries kept him from even pitching in spring training. He’s recovering from
surgery and will attempt to pitch in 2013, but shoulder injuries in pitchers
terrify me, much more so than elbow injuries. If he can return to anything like
his 2011 form, he’s still a top-5 guy in the org. But until I see evidence that
he’s back pumping triple-digit heat, it will be tough to rank him in the
top-10.

Wednesday, October 17, 2012

With their third round pick in the 2010 MLB draft,
the Indians selected shortstop Tony Wolters out of Rancho Buena Vista High
School in California. Wolters signed late in the process, and reported to
Arizona where he managed to get just 5 games in during the Rookie League that
year. Expected to begin 2011 in Lake County, Wolters broke a bone in his hand
during spring training and ended up missing the beginning of the year, so the
Indians sent the 19-year old to short-season Mahoning Valley. Wolters hit
.292/.385/.363 with a HR, 20 RBI, 50 runs scored and 19 stolen bases in 69
games for the Scrappers and seemed primed for a breakout in 2012. Based on his
strong 2011 performance as well as the presence of 2011 first round draft pick
Francisco Lindor in Lake County, the Indians decided to aggressively push
Wolters straight to the high-A Carolina Mudcats for opening day 2012.

To say that Wolters’ 2012 got off on the wrong foot
would be an understatement. In 18 games during the month of April, the 19-year
old hit just .130/.231/.159, managing just 9 hits in 69 at bats. Young players
generally struggle to adjust from the short-season New York-Penn League to the
low-A Midwest League. But to skip low-A altogether is an enormous challenge. It’s
understandable that Wolters struggled to adjust to the better pitching in the
Carolina League, especially the advanced secondary stuff that hitters start to
see at that level. “The month of April was one of the longest months of my
life,” said Wolters. “Each day felt like a month. But every day I learned
something, I kept on learning and learning…I made some good decisions about my
swing and they never gave up on me. That long month of April really helped out;
I think it’s going to be one of the most important parts of my career.” That
was Wolters looking back on his April when I caught up with him in August, so
it was a lot easier for him go see that month as part of the learning process.
Wolters rebounded to hit .291/.360/.408 in May on his way to a final line of
.260/.320/.404 in 125 games for the Mudcats. While April was a rough month, it
really did help him become a better player in the long run, both mentally and
physically. “I knew I could get myself out of what I was doing in April. It was
tough, there were nights where it was hard to go to sleep. I talked to my
parents, prayed to God every night, but I knew I could get through it. You just
have to step back and realize, you’re playing a kids game. You’re going to have
those weeks, those months…every baseball player goes through that. You’re only
going to get better, and I’m glad the Indians are pushing me to things I’m not
used to in order to get better.”

That line isn’t overly impressive alone, but when
you consider his age (turned 20 in June), the fact that he was playing
above-average defense at both SS and 2B, and the hole that he had to climb out
of after his poor April, you realize that Wolters’ season cannot be summed up
just from looking at his triple-slash line. He was 8th in the league
with 30 doubles, led the league with 8 triples, and even managed to finish in
the top-20 in the league with his .724 OPS. Oh, and he was the youngest player
on the Mudcats roster. Wolters had a steep learning curve to deal with in the
Carolina League, and after April he not only survived, but thrived in a league
notorious for being one of the toughest offensive environments in minor league
baseball. His season peaked with an extremely impressive month of July, when he
hit .343/.396/.505 with a pair of HR in 25 games.

Wolters was given high marks for his work ethic and
intangibles prior to the draft, and that scouting report has held true for the
infielder as a professional as well. Wolters is one of the hardest working
players in the organization, and a guy that leads by example on and off the
field. I had an opportunity to watch Wolters’ pre-game routine before a
mid-August game in Potomac, and came away impressed. To start, Wolters takes a
round of BP with his group. He then moves out to either 2B or SS and takes a
round of grounders from one of the coaches while the 2nd group hits.
When the third group is in the cage, Wolters stays out in the field and takes
grounders from whoever is hitting. After that, when everyone else heads into
the clubhouse to rest and grab a bite before the game, Wolters had manager
Edwin Rodriguez hit him grounders while he’s on his knees to improve his hands
and his reaction time. Again, this is all before the game even begins.

Wolters was primarily a SS in high school and then
in his first professional season in Mahoning Valley, but was asked to play 2B
last year to increase his versatility and value to the organization. I asked
him about switching back and forth between two pretty demanding defensive
positions, and Wolters said “For me, 2B is a hard position. The angles are so
much different, you have to like the cut of the grass and be able to take balls
off the grass, and that’s something I’m not used to yet. At 2B, you’re using
your backhand a lot more than at SS. It’s a different rhythm, and I’m still getting
used to it, but I’m making progress. Give me this offseason, and I’ll be
completely fine with it.” He made 16 errors in 63 games at 2B, and just 8
errors in 61 games at SS. He’s clearly more comfortable at SS, but with the
amount of talent the Indians have at that position in the minors they really
need Wolters to be able to play both middle infield positions going forward.

I talked to Wolters about the adjustments he made in
the Carolina League, and also about how the league adjusted to him once he
started hitting. One thing he really noticed was that he was seeing fewer and
fewer fastballs and more and more breaking balls. “If you miss a fastball, that’s
the last fastball you’re going to see. You see pitchers almost twice a week
sometimes, so they learn how to get you out pretty quickly. You just have to be
able to recognize mistakes and make them pay for those mistakes.” By the end of
the season, the left-handed hitting Wolters actually ended up hitting for a
higher average (.264) off of lefties than righties (.259). That’s a pretty
remarkable achievement for a kid his age and experience level. He didn’t make
any huge mechanical changes, but really worked to start his swing earlier and
softer to help stay back on breaking pitches. Every at bat was a learning
experience, and Wolters’ never-ending desire to improve helped him to become a
much better baseball player in September than he was in April.

The Indians farm system is loaded with middle
infield prospects right now. Francisco Lindor, Ronny Rodriguez, Dorssys Paulino
and Wolters will all be top-10 prospects in the organization this offseason.
All four of them will start the 2013 season prior to their 21st
birthdays. While the Indians system as a whole is down right now, that up the
middle talent represents a chance for the system to work its way back in a
hurry, as those guys all have the potential to be solid major leaguers (or
more) down the road. Whether he ends up at shortstop or 2B long-term, Wolters
is going to be an important part of this organization. He’s a talented defender
with the ability to hit at the top of a batting order, and really has off the
charts makeup and intangibles. If Wolters doesn’t have a successful major league
career, it will definitely not be for lack of effort on his part. He’s one of
my favorite players in the organization, a lot of fun to watch on the field,
and will be a joy for AA Akron fans next season.

Sunday, October 14, 2012

How do you replace a legend? How does one go about
replacing the best Indians writer in the business? I was wracking my brain for
longer than I’d care to admit trying to come up with the best comparison for me
taking over the DiaTribe from Paul Cousineau. Earle Bruce stepping in for Woody
Hayes came to mind, but that wasn’t quite right, even if it did conjure up a
pretty funny image of Pauly punching a Clemson football player. After quite a
bit of deliberation, I decided that I’d rely on the somewhat obscure movie
“Rock Star,” featuring none other than Mark Wahlberg himself. If you’ve never
seen the movie (and I’m assuming most of you haven’t), Marky Mark is a huge fan
of a rock band, and is the lead singer in a tribute band. In a very Judas
Priest twist, the lead singer for the real band is replaced by Marky Mark for
some reason. That’s the best way to describe the way I feel; I was and remain a
huge fan of Pauly’s work, and no one want’s him back at the keyboard more than
I do. To be given the chance to step into his shoes is both an honor and a
pretty awesome responsibility, because the last thing I want to do is not live
up to his impressive standards. I did briefly entertain trying to “tank” my
columns to try and infuriate Paul to the point that he was forced to come back
to save the DT, but ultimately decided against it. I consider myself extremely
fortunate to have had the opportunity to get to know Paul over the past several
years, and really enjoy trading e-mails, sharing links and the Indians games that
we’ve attended together. The outpouring of support on both the DiaTribe, Cleveland
Fan and elsewhere across the interwebs from his devoted fans has been both
well-deserved and great to see, and I’m really glad you all appreciate his work
as much as I do. I’ll do my best to replace him, and thanks for sticking with
me here on another Lazy Sunday.

With all that said, new Indians manager Terry
Francona has the luxury of stepping into much smaller shoes than I as he takes
over for departed skipper Manny Acta. From the moment the season ended, it
became clear that not only was Francona a candidate for the position but the
frontrunner for the job. Many of the Cleveland media seemed almost reluctant to
believe it was possible until it actually happened, continually insisting that
Sandy Alomar was the likely 2013 manager. Alomar did of course interview for
the job and was offered a position on Francona’s staff, but he’s also
considered in the running for the Rockies job and even for Boston’s vacant
managerial seat, so he may have a better opportunity than to remain a bench
coach in Cleveland. If Alomar does remain on as a part of the Indians coaching
staff, it would likely be a short-term stint as when a guy starts getting to
the final interview stage for numerous managerial openings it’s really only a
matter of time until he gets a shot to captain a team of his own. Francona signed
a four-year deal, and I’d be surprised if Alomar is around in the Indians
dugout at the end of that original contract. If Sandy does jump ship this
offseason, the recently-fired Brad Mills is a candidate to join Francona’s
staff as bench coach.

With or without Sandy, there’s little doubt that the
Indians hit a home run with this hire. Francona spent eight years at the helm
of the Boston Red Sox, making the playoffs five times and of course winning two
World Series titles, the first in Boston since 1918. Maybe you’d heard
something about that on a certain 4-letter national sports network. His worst
record as Sox manager was a very respectable 86-76 in 2006. Before you point
out the Red Sox payrolls and tell me that an idiot could have gotten 80+ wins
out of that club, take a look at what happened to the (still very expensive)
Red Sox this season while Francona was in the broadcast booth. There has been a
lot of talk about the type of players and the roster that Francona had at his
disposal in Boston, and folks are wondering how he will respond to managing a
much younger, cheaper team in Cleveland in 2013 and beyond. While it’s true
that Francona’s Boston teams had veterans like David Ortiz, Pedro Martinez,
Jason Varitek, Bill Mueller and others on those successful teams, he also
successfully worked youngsters like Kevin Youkilis, Dustin Pedroia, Jacoby
Ellsbury, Jonathan Paplebon, Josh Beckett, Jon Lester and Jarrod Saltalamaccia
into the fold, and saw the likes of Justin Masterson, Clay Buchholz, Daniel
Bard, Josh Reddick and other youngsters begin careers that have varying degrees
of success today. So while it was pretty easy to tell Pedro and Schilling to go
out and dominate every 5th day, Francona was still responsible for
shepherding the development of plenty of young, (and some) homegrown talent as
they came up through the ranks in the Red Sox organization. Did the veteran
presence and massive payroll help? Of course. But Francona probably doesn’t get
enough credit for the job he did in Boston, managing the massive expectations
that went along with the massive payroll, a usually-hostile media,
set-in-their-ways veterans and still bringing along the talented youngsters to
keep Boston at or near the top of the baseball world throughout his stint as
manager. Bottom line, Francona has a better resume than any coach hired to take
over in Cleveland…well, maybe ever.

Prior to his very successful stint in Boston,
Francona managed the Philadelphia Phillies from 1997-2000, never winning more
than 77 games in his four years in the City of Brotherly Love. Francona’s
Philly rosters were far less talented that his Sox teams, with a couple of
stars (Rolen, Abreu, Schilling) mixed with a couple of solid contributors
(Lieberthal, Glanville, Byrd) mixed with a whole bunch of JAGs. This mostly
reveals what we all already knew (or at least suspected); that a manager is
really only as good as his players. Matthew Kory of Baseball Prospectus penned an article that talks about that, with a token “Francona could have done
better, what was he thinking?” Cleveland reference thrown in.

The difference between Francona’s average
Phillies team and Francona’s average Red Sox team is 22 wins. While I wouldn’t
argue if you said Francona was a more effective and smarter manager in Boston
than he was in Philadelphia, did those accumulated managing smarts make a 22
game difference? I suppose you can’t know with total certainty, but it’s worth
pointing out that major-league front offices don’t think so. If they did,
Francona would be paid $20 million a season instead of just taking a job with
the lowly Indians.

(snip)

That all means, unless the Indians invent a new
way to acquire talent, they’re probably looking at some leaner seasons on the
horizon. Those seasons are likely going to be lean whether or not Terry
Francona is the manager. That’s fine for the Indians, but it makes Cleveland an
odd choice for Francona. Maybe he thinks he can coach ‘em up, or maybe he’s
been assured the team is going to buy on the free agent market, or maybe he
just wants to work. There’s nothing wrong with that, and picking a place he
wants to be over one where winning is more easily attainable is admirable. But
I’m surprised Francona isn’t able to do better. With his experience he should
see the Indians job for what it is. In three or four years Francona will
probably be back in the same boat he was in when he worked in Philadelphia, which
is to say, not working there anymore.

I’m not quite as down on the Indians future as Kory,
who is likely spending this weekend writing the outline for his article that
will be posted upon Francona’s firing, I do agree that the team is going to
need more talent to contend, especially starting pitching.Jordan Bastain posted a nice piece about Masterson reuniting with Francona that included this gem from Terry; "When you talk about pitching, you're
going to hear me say this: 'When you think you've got enough, you go get more,
or you try to.' You try to have depth, because no team has enough
pitching." That’s his way of saying the Indians need at least 6 or 7
starters to get through the season, and they really don’t have even 5 to rely
on at this point. Carlos Carrasco can hopefully provide some measure of relief
when he returns to the rotation next year, but he’ll be just one year removed
from Tommy John surgery at that point so it’s premature to count on him for too
much. So barring a trade or free agent signing, the club will need some
combination of Masterson, McAllister, Kluber, Gomez, Slowey, Huff and maybe
Roberto Hernandez to cobble together a rotation. Just typing that sentence mad
my fingers, eyes, and heart hurt a little. If Francona can patch together a
viable major league rotation out of those guys, he’ll have earned every dollar
the Indians pay him and more.

ESPN’s Buster Olney got some attention earlier this
week when he tweeted that Francona has an “out clause” in his contract if
certain members of the front office are relieved of their duties. The club has
no official comment on the clause, and I’ve yet to see a local writer confirm
the existence of it, but I have a hard time thinking Buster would just make it
up. No details have been released as to just who those front office
personalities are, but one can logically deduce that it refers to either
Shapiro, Antonetti or both. Francona must have been the one to request this
clause, as it wouldn’t make any sense for the Indians to have insisted on it.
For now, I’ll just say that it speaks to Francona’s close personal ties with
members of the front office, and not assume that it makes any sort of statement
about the job security of his superiors. Francona’s dad, Tito, played for the
Indians, and was so happy during his son’s press conference that he was
actually in tears. Francona came to Cleveland after his stint in Philly to work
in the Indians front office, and Shapiro and Antonetti actually helped him prep
for his interview when he was gunning for the Boston job. As Anthony Castrovice
detailed, Francona’s close ties to the Indians front office are what really made this deal happen. As always, he cuts
straight to the heart of the issue with respect to what will really make the
Indians a better ballclub (hint…it’s more than just $$):

What people need to understand is that a jump from the $60 million
range to the $80 million range, even if applied appropriately, might only buy a
club another win or two. Even a seismic increase in the payroll department --
and that's not going to happen in one of the game's smallest markets, unless
there's some franchise-altering regional television deal on the horizon of
which I'm completely unaware -- means nothing if it's not backed by solid
baseball decisions.

Fact is, the Indians could have survived quite well
(particularly in the AL Central) on their present payroll, had the personnel
decisions -- from the CC Sabathia, Cliff Lee and Ubaldo Jimenez trades to the
First-Year Player Drafts -- not turned out so consistently unproductive in
recent years.

So while a few extra bucks in payroll will certainly
help, no amount of money will overcome poor personnel decisions. If the wrong
players are continually drafted, traded for and signed in the free agent
market, then the team is going to continue lose a lot more than they win.
Francona though is comfortable with the front office, having worked with them
in the past and worked in an organization with similar philosophies (albeit a
far bigger payroll) in Boston. Francona won’t be fighting the front office on
most of their decisions, and he’ll get a 25-man roster that he will have some
input in the construction of. He’s definitely ready to work, and he’s happy to
be working in Cleveland. Money alone does not beget success; it can help cover
up failures, but continuing to harp on the team’s well-documented payroll
limitations is misguided and short-sighted. The Indians can contend in the
Central Division with a modest increase in payroll as long as there’s a
significant increase in good personnel decisions.

My favorite line from Francona so far is this one, from another of Bastain’s pieces on Indians.com; “I didn't come here to go to
pasture," Francona said. "I was either going to work here or go back
and work at ESPN. I came here again, because I'm not afraid of a challenge, and
the people here that I'm doing it with.” Francona is happy to be working for
Shapiro and Antonetti, happy to be in Cleveland, and he knows the challenge
he’s stepping in to. Is that going to be enough to help return the Indians to
contender status in the below-average Central Division? Time will tell, but I
definitely think that the team made the right hire and that it’s at least a
step in the right direction. Francona is not going to be able to transform the
team overnight, and he’s not going to be able to do it without an influx of
talent. With the state of the Indians minor league system, that talent is going
to have to come from outside the organization if the club expects to contend in
the near-term. Francona will be an important piece in the fight to throw open
another “window of contention,” but he’s not going to be able to do it alone.
But if the front office can put the right pieces on the field, I’m confident in
Francona’s ability to manage them to a title.

Wednesday, October 10, 2012

True confessions time; I did not write a Lazy Sunday last week in the hopes that Paul was kidding about retiring and this was all some elaborate hoax. I woke up first thing Sunday morning, fired up the laptop and checked the site. Nothing. Made breakfast, had a cup of coffee, set my fantasy football lineups and checked the site again. Still nothing. Watched the Browns game. Tried not to throw up. Checked the site again, just in case. Still nothing. The realization finally sank in...my favorite Indians writer isn't writing about the Indians anymore. I feel like sad Victor.

No one can replace Paul. I'm going to save much of my material on this subject for the intro to this week's Lazy Sunday (yes, it will be back this Sunday). Bottom line here is that I'm going to do my best, and I hope you all like it and continue to read, but Paul is a one of a kind writer, fan, and friend. To replace him is not a realistic goal, but I'll try to fill the void.

On a programming note, I'm planning to do mostly minor league stuff during the week, and mostly big-league club stuff on Sunday. Don't hold me to this because that won't be a hard-and-fast rule throughout our little journey, but that's the plan for now. If you like it, don't like it, or have any questions, please never hesitate to let me know in the comments section, e-mail (Gotribe31@gmail.com) or on twitter @Gotribe31. I convinced Paul to keep the DiaTribe twitter handle as his own, so he'll still be somewhat active on that. With all that being said, a sincere thanks for reading, and here's a look at the prospects the Indians will be sending down to the Arizona Fall League. Go Tribe!!!

The Arizona Fall League opened play yesterday as action got
underway in what is universally regarded as MLB’s premiere off-season showcase for
top prospects across baseball. The Indians sent eight of their kids down to the
desert, split evenly between pitchers and position players. The Tribe farmhands
will join those from the Los Angeles Angels, New York Yankees, Pittsburgh
Pirates and San Francisco Giants to comprise the Scottsdale Scorpions this
fall, who will play their home games in San Francisco’s spring training
facility located in lovely Scottsdale, Arizona. An informal survey of the
Indians prospects found that 117% of them favor living/working in Scottsdale
over Goodyear, and those who’ve been to both areas will have a pretty good idea
why. Columbus Clippers hitting coach Phil Clark will be accompanying the
players as part of the Scottsdale coaching staff. The Indians sent an
interesting contingent of players to Arizona this year, including the two
youngest players on the Scorpions roster. Here’s a look at who’s in the desert
and what we can expect out of them, both this fall and going forward through
the system:

T.J. House, LHP: Each
organization is allowed to designate one of their pitchers as a starter, and
the AFL managers can only use those players in the starting rotation. House is
the Indians designated starter this year, and the lefty is hoping to have a
similar campaign as his predecessors the past two years, fellow southpaws Scott
Barnes (2010) and T.J. McFarland (2011). Both Barnes and McFarland had solid
seasons in the hitter-friendly environment down in the desert, and House should
be able to do the same. He began the season with high-A Carolina, going 2-0
with a 1.44 ERA while striking out 26 and walking just 6 in 25 IP for the
Mudcats. Quickly promoted to the more challenging environment of AA Akron,
House continued to put together a solid season. He went 8-5 with a 3.98 ERA, 90
K and 44 BB in 124 1/3 IP for the Aeros, and was really one of the better
starting pitchers in the organization this season. He was criminally underrated
on my preseason top prospects countdown at #49, a fact I’m both slightly
ashamed of and extremely happy about being so wrong. House reported to spring
training in much better shape in 2012, and also changed his arm slot from an
over-the-top angle to a more ¾ delivery similar to how he through as a
prepster. Those factors combined to propel House to his best season as a
professional, and there’s no reason to think his success won’t carry over to
Arizona this fall. House turned 23 just a couple of weeks ago, and has a
profiles as a solid middle of the rotation starter who pitches to contact,
keeps the ball in the ballpark and eats innings in a major league rotation.

Matt Packer, LHP: Packer,
a 32nd round pick out of the University of Virginia in 2009, was one
of the more pleasant surprises in the system in 2010. Packer put up a 9-7
record with a 2.04 ERA between Lake County and Akron that year, striking out
123 and walking just 22 in 132 2/3 IP. He took a small step back in 2011,
pitching the entire year at AA Akron and going 9-12 with a 4.31 ERA, 129 K and
33 BB in 169 1/3 IP. Still, Packer was expected to spend a significant amount
of time in Columbus this season, but sprained his rotator cuff in spring
training this year and didn’t pitch in game action until July. He made a total
of 14 starts between the rookie-level AZL Indians, Carolina, Akron and
Columbus. Six of his starts were for the AAA Clippers, where he went 1-4 with a
5.50 ERA, 23 K and 14 BB in 34 1/3 IP. Packer has always been more of a command
and control guy who does a nice job going after hitters. Not having a spring
training really undercut both his effectiveness and any momentum he had built
up with a strong 2nd half of the 2011 season, and is really just
looking to make up for lost time down in Arizona.

Trey Haley, RHP: Haley
is everything you could want in a power bullpen arm. The 6’3”, 180lb righty out
of Nacogdoches, TX just looks like a pitcher. He has an arm capable of
generating triple-digit heat, and he maintains high-90’s velocity with surprising
consistency. He also has a nice curveball that flashes plus, a big-breaker that
is almost 20 MPH slower than his plus-plus heat. It’s a great pitch to change
up both the velocity and the eye level on hitters, and makes his fastball that
much more effective. Haley went a combined 4-1 with a 2.33 ERA and a 11.4 K/9
ratio between three levels last season. The only concerns with Haley are his
command (4.4 BB/9) and his health, as Haley was able to throw just 38 2/3
innings in 2012 after being limited to 44 1/3 innings in 2011 with a sports
hernia. Haley was a starter through 2010, but the decision was made to move him
to the bullpen prior to the 2011 season. The lack of a reliable 3rd
pitch played a major role in that decision, although Haley has added a slider
to his repertoire that he feels increasingly comfortable with. He’s an ideal
arm to have in the back end of a bullpen though, as he has the ability to come
in and just blow hitters away with his fastball towards the end of the game.
Like Packer, Haley will be logging some innings to make up for time lost to
injury in 2012, and should be one of the top RP on the Scottsdale roster this
fall.

Shawn Armstrong, RHP:
The Indians really do have an embarrassment of riches in their minor league
bullpens, as Armstrong represents another outstanding relief arm that the
Indians have assigned to the AFL. Selected in the 18th round of the
2011 draft, the former East Carolina Pirate had a fantastic 2012 season,
putting up fantastic numbers at three stops in the Indians farm system. I’m not
a huge fan of simply regurgitating numbers to you guys, but these are too good
to pass up; 0.00 ERA with 4 K and 2 BB in 3 2/3 IP for Lake County, 2.06 ERA
with 52 K and 23 BB in 43 2/3 IP for Carolina, and finally 0.89 ERA with 22 K
and 12 BB in 20 1/3 IP for Akron. Overall, that gave him a season line of 2-3
with 4 saves and a 1.60 ERA, 78 K and 37 BB in 67 2/3 IP throughout all of
2012. He was a Carolina League All-Star, and didn’t allow a home run all
season. That HR streak will be in jeopardy in the thin Arizona air, but I think
Armstrong will be up to the challenge. The 6’2, 210lb righty picked up a couple
of ticks on his fastball since he was drafted, and now flashes mid-90’s heat.
Combine that with an above-average slider that flashes plus, and you have the
makings of a pretty solid bullpen arm. The one area Armstrong does need to
improve is his walk rate, which was a too-high 4.9 BB/9 this season. It was his
first full year of professional baseball though, so the hope is that he can
become more consistent with his mechanics and by extension his command as he
gets coached up by the Indians developmental staff.

Tyler Holt, CF: Holt
was a 10th round pick out of Florida State in the 2010 draft, and
profiles as a classic CF/leadoff hitter type of player. He split the 2012
season between Carolina and Akron, finishing with an overall line of
.258/.340/.320 with 15 doubles, 9 triples, 34 RBI and 29 stolen bases in 41
attempts. He has above-average speed and is a very good baserunner, doing a
nice job timing pitchers and picking his spots to run. He has below-average
power, as he’s hit just 2 career HR in 1051 minor-league at bats. He’s an
above-average defender in CF who makes great reads on balls and covers a lot of
ground. His arm is a tick above average. Holt pretty much has to stick in CF
defensively, because his bat simply does not profile well in a corner OF
position. He’s 23 years old, and will turn 24 during spring training next year.
Holt is an intense competitor who really wears his emotions on his sleeve and
always plays with maximum effort. His overall tools package plays better than
the sum of his parts so to speak, as he has good baseball instincts, a great
work ethic and gives 100% on every opportunity at the plate and in the field.

Ronny Rodriguez, SS: Rodriguez
is one of my favorite players in the organization, both on and off the diamond.
He was signed as an international free agent out of the Dominican Republic in
2011, and the Indians tossed then-19 year old SS straight into the deep end to
see if he’d swim. He made his debut with the Lake County Captains in the
pitcher friendly Midwest League that year, hitting a very respectable
.246/.274/.449 with 11 HR and 49 RBI. Rodriguez played all of 2012 in the
Carolina infield in another league notorious for poor batting lines, and all he
did was go .264/.300/.452 with 19 HR, 20 doubles and 66 RBI. The 19 HR were
good for 4th in the entire Carolina League, was 5th in
the league in total bases with 205. All this while learning a new position in
the field (2B) and playing a very much improved SS. Any way you look at it,
that’s an awfully impressive prospect, especially when you factor in his age.
He’s got a plus arm and above-average range, and really got better at
consistently making the plays he should make in the field. He has incredibly
strong hands and a quick bat, which actually results in the righthanded hitter
getting a little pull-happy sometimes. As long as he’s staying back and using
the whole field, Rodriguez is a very, very good hitter. His approach could use
a little work (88 K and just 19 BB) but his K rate actually went down from 22%
in 2011 to 19% in 2012. Still a little high, but the improvement despite facing
better pitching is an encouraging sign. He’s a lock to be a top-5 prospect in
the Indians organization this offseason, and I can’t wait to see what he does
in the AFL against pitchers even older and more talented than the ones he was
facing in Carolina this season. He’s the 2nd youngest player on the
Scottsdale roster, as he’s just 5 days older than the next player on our list.

Alex Monsalve, C: As
I previously alluded to, Monsalve is the youngest player on the Scorpions
roster this season, as he’s just 20 years old. Monsalve split the 2012 season
between Lake County and Carolina, going for a combined line of .256/.311/.373
with 8 HR and 42 RBI in 399 AB between the two levels. Monsalve is a big,
athletic kid who moves pretty well behind the plate. His footwork is improving,
but he still needs to work to clean up his transfer and arm actions to improve
his overall defensive game. He has a strong arm, but simply takes too much time
to get rid of the baseball. Overall, I have him ranked somewhere in the bottom
half of the Indians top-50 prospects. MLB.com’s Jonathan Mayo however, loves
Monsalve. Mayo has consistently ranked him among the Indians top 10-15 in the
entire organization. I like Monsalve’s athleticism and potential, but I just
don’t see what Mayo sees right now. He’s got to get more consistent at the
plate and behind it, and really needs to improve his communication with the
pitching staff. That’s a huge part of a catcher’s game, and for Monsalve it’s
just not there yet. The AFL will only help this development though, so I’m
hopeful that a season of dealing with new pitchers in the desert helps speed up
Monsalve’s learning curve.

Carlos Moncrief, OF: A
converted pitcher, Moncrief has the best OF throwing arm I’ve seen in the
Indians organization to date. That may change this spring when I finally get my
first look at last year’s 1st round draft pick Tyler Naquin, but for
now Moncrief has the belt. He profiles as an ideal RF, with above-average power
and speed to go along with his plus-plus arm. Moncrief was well on his way to a
20/20 season in 2012 when his campaign was cut short at the beginning of August
with a broken hammate bone. He’s been rehabbing in Goodyear since having
surgery to repair the injury, and must be doing well enough that the Indians
think he can make up some at-bats in the AFL. Moncrief ended up playing in 101
games for the Carolina Mudcats this season, and put up a .249/.339/.465 line
with 15 HR, 23 2B, 53 RBI and 17 SB. He was caught stealing just twice, showing
outstanding baserunning instincts in addition to his above-average speed.
Moncrief is a very good athlete, and in addition to the cannon arm covers a lot
of ground in RF. If he can just cut down on the strikeouts (126 in 353 AB last
year), he could become a classic power hitting, strong armed RF in the show one
day. The injury may limit Moncrief as far as playing time goes, and I’d be
surprised if he actually started the AFL season in the lineup, but it’s a great
opportunity for him to build up his strength and conditioning while still collecting
important at bats against quality pitching. Because he lost some developmental
time on the mound, the 23-year old Moncrief needs as much playing time as
possible if he’s going to turn into the player that Indians fans hope he can
be.