February Existing Home Sales Decline, Prices Rise According To The Ten-X Residential Real Estate Nowcast

Ten-X Residential Nowcast Model Projects February Existing Home Sales of 5.51 Million Units (SAAR) and a Median Sales Price of $231,638

IRVINE, Calif. and SILICON VALLEY, Calif., Feb. 27, 2017 /PRNewswire/ -- Ten-X, the nation's leading online real estate transaction marketplace, has released its latest Ten-X Residential Real Estate Nowcast which indicates a slight decline in February existing home sales. According to the nowcast, February sales will fall between seasonally adjusted annual rates of 5.34 – 5.69 million, with a targeted number of 5.51 million – down 3 percent from NAR's reported January sales yet up 7 percent from a year ago.

"At some point, rising prices, higher interest rates, and limited inventory will begin to take their toll on home sales," said Ten-X Executive Vice President Rick Sharga. "While online search activity remains strong, indicating healthy demand for homes, the relatively weak numbers in both new home sales and pending sales of existing homes suggest that buyers may be having trouble finding properties. But monthly housing numbers are notoriously volatile, so it's too soon to say whether we're seeing an inflection point, or the market is just taking a breath before coming back strongly in the spring."

The National Association of Realtors® (NAR®) recently reported that existing home sales saw strong growth in January, confirming the uptick the Ten-X Nowcast had previously indicated and even slightly exceeding those expectations. Existing home sales rose to a seasonally adjusted rate (SAAR) of 5.69 million units, up 3.3 percent from December and 3.8 percent from a year ago – its highest level since February 2007.

The NAR also recently reported a 7.1 percent year-over-year increase in median existing home prices to $228,900 in January. This increase marked the 59th consecutive month of annual gains and also confirmed the nowcast prediction made in January. The February Ten-X Residential Real Estate Nowcast predicts that median existing-home sales will continue to make annual strides in February, falling between $220,056 – $243,220 with a target price point of $231,638 up 1.2 percent from January and up a substantial 9.9 percent from last year's NAR figure.

The Ten-X Residential Real Estate Nowcast combines industry data, proprietary company transactional data and Google search activity to predict market trends as they are occurring – weeks before the findings of other benchmark studies are released. Building upon the groundbreaking work by Google Chief Economist Hal Varian, Ten-X's nowcast model extends a traditional autoregressive-forecasting model to incorporate contemporaneous information that provides significantly enhanced accuracy.

Existing Home Sales

Month

Reported Existing Home Sales

(in millions)

Ten-X Point Estimate

(SAR in millions)

Ten-X Predicted Range

(SAR in millions)

January 2016

5.47

5.29

5.13 – 5.47

February 2016

5.08

5.40

5.23 – 5.58

March 2016

5.33

5.32

5.15 – 5.55

April 2016

5.45

5.52

5.34 – 5.70

May 2016

5.53

5.65

5.47 – 5.83

June 2016

5.57

5.56

5.38 – 5.74

July 2016

5.39

5.56

5.38 – 5.74

August 2016

5.33

5.52

5.34 – 5.71

September 2016

5.47

5.27

5.1 – 5.44

October 2016

5.60

5.38

5.21 – 5.56

November 2016

5.61

5.43

5.26 – 5.61

December 2016

5.49

5.51

5.33 - 5.69

January 2017

5.69

5.49

5.32 - 5.67

February 2017

TBD

5.51

5.34 – 5.69

Sources: Google, NAR, Ten-X

Existing Home Sales Pricing

Month

Reported Existing Home Price

YoY % Change

Ten-X Point Estimate

YoY % Change

Ten-X Predicted Range

January 2016

$213,800

8.2%

$228,251

15.5%

$216,839 - $239,664

February 2016

$210,800

4.4%

$220,639

9.3%

$209,607 - $231,671

March 2016

$222,700

5.7%

$220,218

4.5%

$209,207 - $231,229

April 2016

$232,500

6.0%

$230,284

5.0%

$218,770 - $241,798

May 2016

$239,700

4.8%

$238,418

4.2%

$226,497 - $250,339

June 2016

$247,700

4.8%

$243,833

3.1%

$231,642 - $256,025

July 2016

$244,100

4.3%

$250,646

7.1%

$238,114 - $263,179

August 2016

$240,200

5.1%

$248,256

8.6%

$235,843 - $260,669

September 2016

$234,200

5.6%

$239,268

7.8%

$227,305 - $251,232

October 2016

$232,200

6%

$233,452

5.9%

$221,779 - $245,125

November 2016

$234,900

6.8%

$232,306

3.1%

$220,691 - $243,922

December 2016

$232,200

4.0%

$233,346

4.1%

$221,679 - $245,013

January 2017

$228,900

7.1%

$232,918

2.0%

$221,272 - $244,564

February 2017

TBD

TBD

$231,638

9.9%

$220,056 – $243,220

Sources: Google, NAR, Ten-X

About Ten-X

Ten-X is the nation's leading online real estate transaction marketplace and the parent to Ten-X Homes, Ten-X Commercial and Auction.com. To date, the company has sold 275,000+ residential and commercial properties totaling almost $46 billion. Leveraging desktop and mobile technology, Ten-X allows people to safely and easily complete real estate transactions online. Ten-X is headquartered in Irvine and Silicon Valley, Calif., and has offices in key markets nationwide. Investors in the company include CapitalG (formerly Google Capital) and Stone Point Capital. For more information, visit Ten-X.com.