The coal industry may have lost the national presidential battle. But it is now trying to cherry pick some critical seats in the U.S. Congress. Among those that will hit the spotlight is the potential match-up between two powerful West Virginia political dynasties: The Rockefellers versus the Moores.

For the coal sector, it’s about payback. For West Virginians, it is likely to be the rubber match after four decades of political battles. Democratic Senator Jay Rockefeller is becoming more emboldened and in doing so, he is parting ways with the coal barons who have helped deliver him to office. He is locking horns with the industry and telling it to put on its collective thinking cap and to recognize that the earth is unnaturally warming. As such, he is supporting tougher oversight on coal plants.

Enter Republican U.S. Representative Shelly Moore Capito, who is the daughter of the state’s three-time governor Arch Moore. In 1972, incumbent Governor Arch Moore bumped off a young and aspiring Secretary of State Jay Rockefeller in what was Round One. The two went at again in 1980 in what was a hostile campaign. Rockefeller, who had gone on to become the state’s governor in 1976, won Round Two. He outspent Moore by a 20-to-1 margin and just barely won.

Fast forward to 2012. The 75-year-old Rockefeller is the only high-profile elected official from the state of West Virginia to have publicly and wholeheartedly endorsed President Obama. Not only is the state’s senior senator loyal to his party but he is becoming truer to his convictions -- fighting hard for improved air and water quality standards, which has affected the close ties that he once had with the coal execs from Alpha Natural Resources and Arch Coal.

While the coal sector showed that it can no longer influence presidential elections, the industry can still move voters in coal-rich states such as West Virginia, Kentucky and Tennessee. If it gets enough support in those regions then it can still have a strong voice on Capitol Hill.

Hence, it is now backing Rep. Shelly Moore Capito for what is expected to be the de-facto Round Three between the Rockefeller and Moore families. Capito is likable, gracious and level-headed. But most of all, she has never wavered in her unconditional support for coal, helping her to win backing from such unions as Coal Miners for Capito.

“We are a rich state in natural resources with our coal reserves, natural gas and even oil,” says Capito, in announcing her bid for the 2014 U.S. Senate seat, adding that she will “continue to stand up against the EPA’s dangerous and unconstitutional crusade.”

Those thoughts and emotions are deeply held by a state whose economy is strongly and “irrevocably” linked to coal’s fortunes. But the persistent pandering to the coal sector there may be digging West Virginia in a hole from which it cannot emerge. That’s the basis from which Senator Rockefeller begins -- that the industry must conform to the wishes of the national electorate, and not the other way around.

For better or worse, Rockefeller is standing his principles, and ground. The coal sector can maintain its pertinence, he insists, but only if it pursues a new path by embracing investments in coal gasification and carbon capture and sequestration -- tools that improve efficiencies and reduce emission levels, all of which would give coal leverage in competitive energy markets.

The national temperament is changing with the U.S. Congress enacting tougher rules on sulfur dioxide, nitrogen oxide and mercury while the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency is beginning to clamp down on greenhouse gases. “The dialogue on coal, its impacts, and the federal government’s role has reached a feverish pitch,” says Senator Rockefeller. “Carefully orchestrated messages that strike fear in the hearts of West Virginians and feed uncertainty about coal’s future” are all part of “scare tactics” funded by coal interests that have backfired.

The coal industry, in fact, is fighting an uphill battle. Rolling back coal-related rules and regulations while asking natural gas-and-nuclear-fired power plants to meet stricter standards is not realistic. To be exact, the argument is over those coal facilities that were built in the middle of the last century and which have, over the years, gotten a number of extensions to continue operations.

The utilities' choice now is to either shut down or to retrofit -- a decision made less complicated by the relative low cost of natural gas, whose combined-cycle plants are more efficient and are having an easier time with federal environmental regulators. The Edison Electric Institute and some of its coal-based utility members such as American Electric Power, FirstEnergy Corp. and Southern Company have said that they will fall in line but that they will need more time.

In this context, Senator Rockefeller asked the U.S. General Accountability Office to assess the state of the coal industry given the negative externalities that it now faces: a tougher EPA in combination with cheap natural gas prices and declining coal reserves that are harder to dig out in the Appalachian region. With that, the government watchdog agency is predicting that 15 percent to 24 percent of the current coal fleet will get retired by 2035, consisting almost exclusively of those older, dirtier and less efficient plants. Those that thrive will be those that use modern pollution controls.

Even in a new era of environmental oversight, the coal industry will still play a major role, it says. Today, 1,387 coal-fired plants supply 42 percent of all electric generation. By 2035, it will be 38 percent. That’s in line with the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s projections, which are that coal’s share of the generation market will fall to 30 percent if natural gas prices remain low and 40 percent if those fuel costs are higher.

“Regarding new coal-fueled units, these are likely to be less polluting as they must incorporate advanced technologies to reduce emissions of regulated pollutants,” says the GAO. “Coal-fueled capacity may decline in the future as less capacity is expected to be built than is expected to retire.”

Nationally, President Obama appears to have made a winning case for a new energy economy that uses the latest and greatest tools for all fuel forms. But he has been unable to persuade those who are dependent on coal’s treasures. Now, Senator Rockefeller must carry this argument to his fellow West Virginians who have consistently elected him since 1976. His points are well taken: Pushing coal to be its very best by motivating both producers and utilities to make investments in modern technologies. Only then will his constituents have a viable future, he says.

Rep. Moore Capito will make the case for coal's establishment and its unions, emphasizing that the industry has feathered the state’s nest for generations and that it could continue to do so, if not for an aberrant EPA and a sitting U.S. Senator sympathetic to the current White House. But her 2014 senate bid is about a lot more than coal. It’s about settling an old political score -- one that is now primed for the national stage.