Triumphant Gillard focuses on her external foe

When
Kevin Rudd
stepped out on Friday afternoon for a press conference in his Brisbane electorate of Griffith, there was a degree of anticipation among some of his now former supporters that he, too, would quit.

Depending on who you believe, Rudd had either flagged to one or two people that he was going to announce he would step down at the election or they just assumed that’s what he was going to say.

“Some of us thought he might,’’ said one.

After all, there were already eight bodies on the floor – five ministers and three whips – all having paid the price for backing him into Thursday’s botched coup.

Of the eight, only
Martin Ferguson
went of his own volition.
Simon Crean
was sacked. The other six,
Chris Bowen
and
Kim Carr
among them, were made to walk the plank.

Others survived the purge but are bruised. Ministers
Mark Butler
,
Anthony Albanese
and
Bob Carr
have been associated with treachery, while NSW Labor general-secretary Sam Dastyari, who faces the Herculean task of trying to hold back the tide in NSW, is in the doghouse.

Needless to say, Rudd did not go out in solidarity with those who fell for him.

He just spoke kindly of his supporters, many of whom, like Bowen and
Richard Marles
, are young and will be back when this era blows over, possibly in six months. If it is to rebuild, Labor will need them, as it will need the likes of Dastyari.

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More significantly, Rudd categorically ruled out ever becoming Labor leader again. By saying there would be no circumstances under which he would return, he closed the door on the already rapidly dwindling prospect he would be drafted by a cross-factional majority of colleagues closer to the election.

It was never going to happen anyway. There is too much anger and dismay. Because he did not resign, Rudd could still be leader after the election if Labor loses, but that is a discussion for another day.

Having vanquished her pestiferous predecessor,
Julia Gillard
, for the first time in almost three years, has something resembling clear air ahead of her and she will be working doggedly between now and the September 14 election to distil the contest down to one between her and
Tony Abbott
.

Gillard believes she can beat Abbott one on one and, now that she no longer has to look over her shoulder, she feels invigorated.

Rudd people had pointed out that many of the stuff-ups that have plagued this government – the most recent being the clumsy attempt to legislate new media laws – cannot be sheeted to Rudd or any destabilisation by his supporters. Indeed, when Crean visited Gillard on Wednesday night, he told her she had to look at her own performance instead of just blaming Rudd.

Gillard people argue that the constant spectre of things leaking and the paranoia that comes with ongoing destabilisation hamstrings the decision-making process. Defensiveness and ineptitude creep in.

Whatever the cause, and it is mostly a hybrid of both factors, there are less than six months until the election and most realists inside and outside the political establishment believe the cause to be hopeless.

The fortnightly Newspoll due this week could show a lift in Gillard’s personal ratings, given she has outfoxed her internal rival again (albeit with a fair bit of help from his own camp). But no one is anticipating a surge in support for Labor.

Signs of preparation for a change of government abound. On Monday, for example, the national lobbying group Government Relations Australia will appoint the former Howard government minister
Helen Coonan
to jointly chair the company with former Labor treasurer
John Dawkins
.

For her part, Gillard believes she can win if only because she believes she has to. As early as Monday she will unveil the new ministry she has been working on all weekend with the help of her deputy,
Wayne Swan
. When Gillard reshuffled last month to replace the outgoing
Nicola Roxon
and
Chris Evans
, she used the opportunity to shore up her leadership by promoting Rudd supporters – Chris Bowen,
Mike Kelly
,
Melissa Parke
and
Kelvin Thomson
.

In this reshuffle, she will look after those who stuck by her. Junior minister
Gary Gray
, a former Woodside executive, is tipped to replace Ferguson in Resources and Energy. Apart from Ferguson, Gray is one of the few people in Labor miners will talk to. Assistant Treasurer
David Bradbury
is tipped for cabinet. Michelle Rowland, who is swinging in the breeze in the ultra-marginal western Sydney seat of Greenway, should advance, as will Melbourne MP
Michael Danby
.

Sharon Bird
, from the NSW seat of Cunningham, is also tipped for elevation.

Gillard will nail down the reshuffle – her fourth in less than three years and arguably her most comprehensive – and then hightail it to Western Australia, a region which rivals only western Sydney in its dislike of the government.

WA Labor, which was thumped in the state election two weeks ago, forbade Gillard to travel to WA during the campaign. It is no coincidence that, with the state election over and Parliament risen, the first place she is heading is where her government badly needs a lift.