August 2019 | Base Metals

Technical analysis: Mixed technical picture

Nickel is consolidating recent gains, tin and zinc are still in downtrends, while the other base metals are threatening to go higher.

Aluminium

Buyers had a chance to push the LME three-month aluminium price higher on Monday August 19, but sellers were able to defend near the 100 DMA at $1,815 per tonne. Although the price has worked itself higher since the August low at $1,745 per tonne, the 100 DMA will not be the easiest overhead resistance to crack and we have seen such an attempt one too many times this year. More often than not, sellers have managed to use the 100 DMA to mount a successful defense and cap any upside momentum. This time will not be any different, we believe, because LME aluminiums technical indicators, such as the daily RSI and stochastic lines, are now vulnerable to a potential turnaround if more selling pressure emerges in the coming days. We also note that prices currently trade within a potential bear flag formation and a break below the...