Taiwan Is
Independent - Just Don't Say So

Taipei, Friday, May 11, 2001

Ralph A. CossaInternational Herald Tribune

Taipei -- President George W. Bush, in an
attempt to defuse tensions with Beijing after his recent
assertion that the United States would do "whatever
it takes" to help Taiwan defend itself, quickly
reaffirmed the "one China" policy.

In comments directed toward Taipei, Mr. Bush said:
"I certainly hope Taiwan adheres to the one China
policy. And a declaration of independence is not the
one-China policy." This caveat is critically
important to Beijing, which suspects that independence is
the aim of both President Chen Shui-bian of Taiwan and of
the United States.

Yet China's fears seem unwarranted, at least in the
near term. None of the Taiwan officials and scholars I
met with last week thought a declaration of independence
was a viable option for Taiwan. In fact, Mr. Chen has
specifically stated that there would be no declaration of
independence as long as Beijing did not attempt forcibly
to reunite Taiwan with the mainland.

While a referendum on this issue was on the agenda of
the governing Democratic Progressive Party when it was in
the opposition, Mr. Chen has dropped the idea as one of
many peaceful gestures toward Beijing that are thus far
unrecognized and unanswered.

In reality, if a referendum on the issue were held
today, it is likely that fewer than 15 percent of
Taiwan's population would vote for an immediate
declaration of independence. But this is probably double
or triple the number who would choose reunification with
the mainland, now or at anytime in the foreseeable
future.

The overwhelming majority would prefer to maintain the
status quo, primarily because they are concerned that an
open declaration of independence would create chaos, if
not outright war, across the Taiwan Strait. This is a
confrontation that no one, including the United States,
wants.

The dilemma for Beijing is that, as each year passes,
fewer Taiwanese support reunification with China, as the
old generation of displaced mainlanders is replaced with
a population that sees itself first and foremost as
Taiwanese. They are Chinese-Taiwanese in the same sense
that I am Italian-American. They may take pride in their
ethnic roots but they take even greater pride in their
Taiwanese identity and in their country's economic and
political accomplishments.

Their primary motivation for not seeking formal
independence is their very real fear of the consequences.
Beijing understands this, which is why it refuses to
relinquish its option to use force and continues
periodically to rattle sabers in Taiwan's direction. But
the more Beijing sticks to its belligerent stance, the
less incentive there is for Taiwanese to seek a closer
association with the mainland.

Taiwanese argue that Beijing should treat
reunification like a future marriage, one that requires a
proper engagement period to establish a new relationship
based on mutual trust. For the two sides to reunite,
China must first also embrace democracy, which implies a
very long engagement.

In the meantime, both sides need to show more
flexibility in seeking common ground. Mr. Chen has hinted
he is ready to accept some type of "one China,
differing definitions" formula. Deputy Prime
Minister Qian Qichen of China has talked of "Taiwan
and the mainland being part of one China," although
Mr. Qian's one China is still centered in Beijing.

What is needed is a type of "one nation, two
states" or "commonwealth" formula, under
which Taiwan and the mainland are both seen as part of a
greater China. Such an arrangement does not seem likely
under the current leadership in Beijing but is not
impossible over time.

Until then, the people of Taiwan should take some
comfort from realizing that Taiwan is already, de facto,
a fully independent state and is likely to remain
securely so - as long as it does not declare
independence.

The writer is president of the Pacific Forum CSIS,
a Honolulu-based research institute affiliated with the
Center for Strategic and International Studies. He
contributed this comment to the International Herald
Tribune.