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Groundhog Day

Every February 2, thousands gather at Gobbler’s Knob in Punxsutawney, Pennsylvania, to await the spring forecast from a special groundhog. Known as Punxsutawney Phil, this groundhog will emerge from his simulated tree trunk home and look for his shadow, which will help him make his much-anticipated forecast. According to legend, if Phil sees his shadow the United States is in store for six more weeks of winter weather. But, if Phil doesn’t see his shadow, the country should expect warmer temperatures and the arrival of an early spring.

History of Groundhog Day

Groundhog Day originates from an ancient celebration of the midway point between the winter solstice and the spring equinox—the day right in the middle of astronomical winter. According to superstition, sunny skies that day signify a stormy and cold second half of winter while cloudy skies indicate the arrival of warm weather.

The trail of Phil’s history leads back to Clymer H. Freas, city editor of the Punxsutawney Spirit newspaper. Inspired by a group of local groundhog hunters—whom he would dub the Punxsutawney Groundhog Club—Freas declared Phil as America’s official forecasting groundhog in 1887. As he continued to embellish the groundhog's story year after year, other newspapers picked it up, and soon everyone looked to Punxsutawney Phil for the prediction of when spring would return to the country.

Punxsutawney Phil Versus the U.S. National Temperature 1988–2014

The table below gives a snapshot, by year since 1988, of whether Phil saw his shadow or not along with the corresponding monthly national average temperature departures for both February and March. The table shows no predictive skill for the groundhog during the most recent years of this analysis. Since 1993, the U.S. national temperature has been above normal 11 times in February and 13 times in March, below normal 6 times in February and 2 times in March, and near normal 5 times in February and 7 times in March.

Year

Shadow

February Temperature Departure

March Temperature Departure

2014

Yes

Below

Slightly Below

2013

No

Slightly Above

Slightly Below

2012

Yes

Above

Above

2011

No

Slightly Below

Above

2010

Yes

Below

Above

2009

Yes

Above

Above

2008

Yes

Slightly Above

Slightly Above

2007

No

Below

Above

2006

Yes

Above

Above

2005

Yes

Above

Slightly Above

2004

Yes

Slightly Below

Above

2003

Yes

Below

Above

2002

Yes

Above

Below

2001

Yes

Slightly Above

Slightly Below

2000

Yes

Above

Above

1999

No

Above

Above

1998

Yes

Above

Slightly Below

1997

No

Above

Above

1996

Yes

Above

Below

1995

No

Above

Above

1994

Yes

Below

Above

1993

Yes

Below

Slightly Above

1992

Yes

Above

Above

1991

Yes

Above

Above

1990

No

Above

Above

1989

Yes

Below

Above

1988

No

Slightly Below

Slightly Above

U.S. Climate Conditions in February and March 2014

In 2014, the contiguous U.S. average temperature was 52.6°F, 0.5°F above the 20th century average, and tying with 1977 as the 34th warmest year in the 120-year period of record. 2014 was slightly warmer than 2013 for the contiguous United States when the annual average temperature was 52.4°F. This marks the 18th consecutive year with an annual average temperature above the 20th century average for the contiguous United States. The last year with a below-average contiguous U.S. temperature was 1996. Since 1895, when national temperature records began, the contiguous United States has observed an average temperature increase of 0.13°F per decade.

The contiguous U.S. February temperature was 32.2°F, 1.6°F below the 20th century average, and the 37th coldest February on record. Below-average February temperatures were observed across much of the northern and central contiguous United States, with the largest departures from normal across the Midwest. Illinois, Iowa, and Wisconsin each had a top 10 cold February, though no state was record cold. The Southwest and Florida were warmer than average. Arizona, California, and Utah each had February temperatures that ranked among the 10 warmest on record, though no state was record warm.

The average temperature for the contiguous United States during March 2014 was 40.5°F, 1.0°F below the 20th century average. This was the 43rd coldest March on record, and the coldest since 2002. Below-average temperatures dominated the eastern half of the contiguous United States during March. The largest departures from average occurred across the Great Lakes and Northeast, where nine states had temperatures that ranked among their 10 coldest on record. The persistent cold resulted in nearly two-thirds of the Great Lakes remaining frozen into early April. Vermont had its coldest March on record, with a statewide temperature of 18.3°F, 8.9°F below average. The previous coldest March in Vermont occurred in 1916 when the monthly average temperature was 18.6°F. Maine and New Hampshire each had their second coldest March on record, while Michigan and New York had their fifth coldest. Massachusetts and Wisconsin had their eighth coldest March, Connecticut its ninth coldest, and Pennsylvania its 10th coldest. Most locations from the Rockies westward had above-average March temperatures. California had its ninth warmest March, with a statewide temperature 4.7°F above average. No state was record warm for March. Across the nation during March, there were five times as many record cold daily maximum and minimum temperatures (5,822) as record warm daily maximum and minimum temperatures (1,149).

Take a look at the February and March 2014 statewide temperature ranks maps, which give a pretty good idea of the distribution of temperatures across the United States.

There are even more groundhog forecasters in the running such as Octorara Orphie of Quarryville, Pennsylvania—competition right next door to Phil—Staten Island Chuck from the Staten Island Zoo, Unadilla who hails from Nebraska, Buckeye Chuck from Ohio, French Creek from West Virginia, and the Cajun Groundhog from Louisiana. Ridge Lea Larry is a "stuffed groundhog" from Western New York, and the Tennessee Groundhog of Silver Point, Tennessee, is actually someone dressed up like a groundhog on a motorcycle.

While Groundhog Day is a way to have a little fun at mid-winter, climate records and statistics tell us that winter probably isn't over. Climatologically speaking, the three coldest months of the year are December, January, and February, so winter typically still has a bit to go when the groundhog comes out in search of his shadow on February 2.