August 17, 2011

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If polling is his guide, Missouri Rep. Russ Carnahan may just run for reelection in his newly configured 2nd congressional District after all.

An internal poll commissioned by the fourth-term Democrat and obtained exclusively by POLITICO shows Carnahan in virtual dead heats with both potential Republican challengers, Ed Martin and Ann Wagner.

The August survey found Carnahan up two points on Martin, 42 percent to 40 percent and leading Wagner by a single point, 40 percent to 39 percent.

After being read positive messages about both candidates, Martin leads Carnahan by five points, 47 percent to 42 percent. Under the same scenario with Wagner, it's a closer race, with the Democrat besting the former ambassador 44 percent to 43 percent.

It goes without saying that the poll comes a year before the GOP primary, when both opponents — especially Wagner — remain largely undefined. Carnahan, on the other hand, is a familiar name that's been stamped on Missouri ballots for decades.

But it indicates that Carnahan, whose seat was eliminated in redistricting, is seriously weighing running in the newly drawn Republican-leaning district currently held by Rep. Todd Akin.

The poll of 402 voters by Lake Research Partners pegged Carnahan's favorable rating at just 42 percent. Forty percent view him unfavorably. Martin, who unsuccessfully challenged Carnahan in 2010, registers just a 20 percent favorable rating while Wagner's is 12 percent.

Forty-six percent say they have never heard of Wagner. That number is 12 points less for Martin at 34 percent.

Just 22 percent rate Carnahan has an "excellent or good" congressman, compared to 59 percent who place him in the "fair or poor" category.

But the polling also previews the types of attacks Carnahan would launch against his rivals and reveals a varying degree of effectiveness.

Here is the first negative messaging Carnahan tested against Martin:

"Ed Martin is a shady political operative, with a long history of scandals. As chief of staff to Governor Matt Blunt, Martin was responsible for “memo-gate”, in which he tried to cover up his political activity while being paid a six-figure salary by taxpayers. Martin’s unethical actions required a more-than-two million dollar bailout by Missouri taxpayers, and earned him the distinction of being listed as one of the 11 most corrupt politicians seeking federal office. Newspaper accounts even report that while Martin was on the board of directors for the archdiocese he helped cover up the actions of pedophile priests and reassigned them back into contact with kids. Washington has enough scandals without Ed Martin."

After hearing that negative message contrasted with a positive reading of Carnahan's record, it's Carnahan 44 percent to 39 percent.

The second negative test against Martin produces almost the same result.

Ed Martin is a strong supporter of a controversial plan put forth by Republicans in Washington, D.C. to privatize Medicare. This plan would end Medicare as we know it by replacing seniors’ guaranteed benefits with a voucher program. As a result of the plan Ed Martin is pushing, seniors’ out-of-pocket costs would double in ten years, while millionaires would still get millions more in tax breaks.

Voters give Carnahan the nod by 5 points after this reading, 45 percent to 40 percent.

The first negative test against Wagner appears to be less effective than the Medicare argument.

Missourians need a member of Congress who will stand up for us. But Ann Wagner calls herself a QUOTE “political operative” UNQUOTE and puts partisan interests ahead of Missouri. Wagner refuses to cut taxpayer subsidies for big oil, or cut tax breaks for billionaires and corporations that ship jobs overseas. Her plan to pay for these special breaks relies on cutting veterans’ benefits by nearly 19 billion dollars over the next ten years and cutting $450 billion from Medicare, forcing seniors to pay $6,400 more a year for coverage. While veterans, seniors, children and families are being asked to sacrifice, the tax burden on millionaires is at a historic low. Wagner would only shift more of the burden onto hardworking Missourians.

It's Wagner 44 percent, Carnahan 40 percent following this and a positive promotion of the Democrat.

Ann Wagner is a strong supporter of a controversial plan put forth by Republicans in Washington, D.C. to privatize Medicare. This plan would end Medicare as we know it by replacing seniors’ guaranteed benefits with a voucher program. As a result of the plan Ann Wagner is pushing, seniors’ out-of-pocket costs would double in ten years, while millionaires would still get millions more in tax breaks.

Following the Medicare attack, Carnahan takes the lead over Wagner 42 percent to 41 percent.

This reveals that while Martin may be more vulnerable to personal attacks about his past than Wagner, the Medicare message appears to be more salient with voters in either contest.

The Lake survey also found that the tea party is viewed more favorably than President Obama by about 5 percent. It puts the "tea party movement's" favorability at 45 percent in the new 2nd Congressional District, compared to Obama's 40 percent rating. Akin comes in with 47 percent favorability.

Akin would defeat Democratic Sen. Claire McCaskill 49 percent to 41 percent in the 2nd Congressional District and Gov. Jay Nixon would best Lt. Gov. Peter Kinder 45 percent to 34 percent, according to Lake's poll of hypothetical match-ups.

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So Politico is already campaigning for a Dem lib ...wow what news. Hopefully, the Pubs will go all out to defeat every rep or Senator who Politico campaigns for since after all, journalism used to be seen as an art in which both sides were given equal treatment. LOL.

@ cliff: It is impressive since MO-2 was crafted into a Republican leaning district after the last gerrymandering session.
By the way, Ed Martin is hardly an unknown in the MO-2 area (have you ever been here?)

The 49% to 41% stat on Akin vs McCaskill (aka "Bride of Chucky") is for only the 2nd district, not the entire state of Missoura; not good polling for Akin. Also, the voters of Missoura did not "get rid of Carnie's sister". She holds the statewide office of Secretary of State. LOL!

So, Carnahan is 'competitive' in Missouri-2 according to Lake Research Partners.
Lake Research Partners is a Democrat polling firm headed by Celinda Lake. And I mean the same Celinda Lake who predicted that the Sandinistas would be re-elected Nicaragua in 1990 (instead, the Nicaraguans rightfully voted them out).
Maybe the next article about Carnahan and/or Missouri could cite a credible pollster and not a dodo like Celinda Lake.