Happy B-Day Icjr, hopefully on your 50th BBRY will be more than double and you can help out your two boys with that down payment.

Thanks Fortyniner!! I have two girls but your thoughts are appreciated. Yep, it will be really cool to see their faces light up when I hand them that much cash and they get to buy their own houses with a nice down payment. That's all I need out of this. I'm a simple guy.

Now that I'm feeling more optimistic I've been thinking again about the plan TH has laid out. It all seems to be leading to the Aristo release in November at which point it will have the JB runtime for Android apps as well as possibly the entire android catalog conversion to native' that Misek had hinted at. Hopefully a lot of the bugs will also have been worked out by then as well. Couple that with a 'dumb' Miracast tablet and a marketing blitz, it could be a large win for BBRY. I just hope they don't underspec it, they need to make a splash with it.

Thanks Fortyniner!! I have two girls but your thoughts are appreciated. Yep, it will be really cool to see their faces light up when I hand them that much cash and they get to buy their own houses with a nice down payment. That's all I need out of this. I'm a simple guy.

Sorry for some reason I thought you had two boys, are your girls married yet if not well you might be on the hook for the weddings. Either way am sure you will have a big smile if you decide to hold until then.

With average selling prices of the Z10 and Q10 coming in at $500 and $550, respectively, versus $200 for older BlackBerrys, based on wholesale prices quoted on various Web sites, Perkins raised his estimates to $3.7 billion in sales and a profit of 6 cents a share from what he formerly modeled as $2.7 billion and a break-even quarter.

Estimates by the sell side are all over the place, given the difficulty of predicting new model sales trends, writes Perkins, but his checks suggest sales are going much stronger than thought:

sales estimates published over the last month ranging from $3.1bn to $4.1bn and operating results from a loss of $100m to a profit of $344m (guidance breakeven). We believe the reason for this is that we are in the midst of a major portfolio change. Forecasting in these circumstances is extremely difficult as most information is backward looking in that it relies on the existing user base and thus will show downward trends. It is therefore difficult to see exactly what impact the new portfolio models are having. However, our channel checks have come up with some surprisingly strong numbers for RIM's unit sales for Q1 FY14. We forecast Z10 unit sales of over 4m. Although the initial reaction to the Q10 has been positive, it has only been available in a few countries for a limited period. We would be surprised if total sales of the Q10 model exceeded 1m units. In total, we believe that Blackberry 10 handsets could record sales in excess of 5m units. We believe that this is above consensus which is between 3m and 4m units for the quarter. As for the older units, we still believe there is demand for the 9220, 9320 and 9900 handsets but that this is falling rapidly.

Perkins writes that it's not easy to find additional confirmation of his projections, but he offers some data that may be of use:

Kantar Worldpanel's (supplies data on smartphone sales by country based on consumer interviews) data for RIM has shown a downward trend over the past year for most countries. As there is no overall measure of sales, we have shown data from the US and UK but the trend elsewhere is similar. Perhaps the only positive point to note is that there was a small pick-up in the UK in April, when the Q10 became available alongside the Z10 [...] The site gs.statcounter.com (records page views by device, operating system etc. based on tracking code on three million sites) shows a similar decline. RIM's share of the total mobile internet market (as measure by page views) has shrunk from over 8% at the beginning of 2012 to under 4% in April 2013. There was an increase in May 2013 but again it is only a small increase [...] However, if we look at the UK again on the basis of page views the evidence is slightly better. There was a collapse in market share in internet usage in the UK for RIM throughout 2012. However, after a dramatic collapse in February 2013 (down almost 5% in one month), RIM's share has stabilised and has even risen slightly. The UK is an important market for RIM: it was the first market to receive both the Z10 (31 January 2013) and the Q10 (26 April 2013). So while we can find no direct support of our forecast of a large rise in sales of new portfolio products, we can certainly see that the rapid decreases in market share across a number of measures appear to have ceased. This is perhaps most pronounced in the UK where the new Blackberry Z10 and Q10 models were first released.

Perkins provides the following graphic of the leveling off of the decline in Web usage on BlackBerry devices:

Sorry for some reason I thought you had two boys, are your girls married yet if not well you might be on the hook for the weddings. Either way am sure you will have a big smile if you decide to hold until then.

One married but renting a house and the other is engaged to a great young guy that has a landscaping business with his dad. Great girls that never got into any trouble growing up, so I'm truly blessed already.

Ho men if I buy the island I am eying right a little beautiful island on the San Juan now I will host anybody who love fishing!!!

Originally Posted by lcjr

Well, that in itself is some reward. I'm just glad I can hang out with you guys and share virtual beers now and then. haha. By the way, I'll take a virtual beer from each of you or a non-alcoholic beverage from those that don't drink beer as I celebrate my 49th B-day today!! Red Lobster tonight with the wife and a few glasses of good wine.

One married but renting a house and the other is engaged to a great young guy that has a landscaping business with his dad. Great girls that never got into any trouble growing up, so I'm truly blessed already.

Well, that in itself is some reward. I'm just glad I can hang out with you guys and share virtual beers now and then. haha. By the way, I'll take a virtual beer from each of you or a non-alcoholic beverage from those that don't drink beer as I celebrate my 49th B-day today!! Red Lobster tonight with the wife and a few glasses of good wine.

With average selling prices of the Z10 and Q10 coming in at $500 and $550, respectively, versus $200 for older BlackBerrys, based on wholesale prices quoted on various Web sites, Perkins raised his estimates to $3.7 billion in sales and a profit of 6 cents a share from what he formerly modeled as $2.7 billion and a break-even quarter.

Estimates by the sell side are all over the place, given the difficulty of predicting new model sales trends, writes Perkins, but his checks suggest sales are going much stronger than thought:

sales estimates published over the last month ranging from $3.1bn to $4.1bn and operating results from a loss of $100m to a profit of $344m (guidance breakeven). We believe the reason for this is that we are in the midst of a major portfolio change. Forecasting in these circumstances is extremely difficult as most information is backward looking in that it relies on the existing user base and thus will show downward trends. It is therefore difficult to see exactly what impact the new portfolio models are having. However, our channel checks have come up with some surprisingly strong numbers for RIM's unit sales for Q1 FY14. We forecast Z10 unit sales of over 4m. Although the initial reaction to the Q10 has been positive, it has only been available in a few countries for a limited period. We would be surprised if total sales of the Q10 model exceeded 1m units. In total, we believe that Blackberry 10 handsets could record sales in excess of 5m units. We believe that this is above consensus which is between 3m and 4m units for the quarter. As for the older units, we still believe there is demand for the 9220, 9320 and 9900 handsets but that this is falling rapidly.

Perkins writes that it's not easy to find additional confirmation of his projections, but he offers some data that may be of use:

Kantar Worldpanel's (supplies data on smartphone sales by country based on consumer interviews) data for RIM has shown a downward trend over the past year for most countries. As there is no overall measure of sales, we have shown data from the US and UK but the trend elsewhere is similar. Perhaps the only positive point to note is that there was a small pick-up in the UK in April, when the Q10 became available alongside the Z10 [...] The site gs.statcounter.com (records page views by device, operating system etc. based on tracking code on three million sites) shows a similar decline. RIM's share of the total mobile internet market (as measure by page views) has shrunk from over 8% at the beginning of 2012 to under 4% in April 2013. There was an increase in May 2013 but again it is only a small increase [...] However, if we look at the UK again on the basis of page views the evidence is slightly better. There was a collapse in market share in internet usage in the UK for RIM throughout 2012. However, after a dramatic collapse in February 2013 (down almost 5% in one month), RIM's share has stabilised and has even risen slightly. The UK is an important market for RIM: it was the first market to receive both the Z10 (31 January 2013) and the Q10 (26 April 2013). So while we can find no direct support of our forecast of a large rise in sales of new portfolio products, we can certainly see that the rapid decreases in market share across a number of measures appear to have ceased. This is perhaps most pronounced in the UK where the new Blackberry Z10 and Q10 models were first released.

Perkins provides the following graphic of the leveling off of the decline in Web usage on BlackBerry devices:

Been doing some reverse engineering on the numbers based on gs stat as well, and have come up with these results below. Not too far off from this guys estimates, but slightly better.

Here's what I came up with.
Z10 - 5.5 M
Q10- 1.0 M
Legacy - 3.5 M

Loss of subs: 2M ( down to 74M from 76M ) - with the Q5 quickly in the horizon, I believe people who are contemplating to move to another platform will just wait it out since they've waited long enough. What's a couple of months for them. The bleeding has to slow down and if it does, the squeeze will be on its way. Remember, the decrease in subs is the remaining lifeline the shorts have.

BTW, if I take the 1 million order from BrightStar, my BB10 numbers would align and be close to the 5M they're forecasting.

Well, that in itself is some reward. I'm just glad I can hang out with you guys and share virtual beers now and then. haha. By the way, I'll take a virtual beer from each of you or a non-alcoholic beverage from those that don't drink beer as I celebrate my 49th B-day today!! Red Lobster tonight with the wife and a few glasses of good wine.

Well, that in itself is some reward. I'm just glad I can hang out with you guys and share virtual beers now and then. haha. By the way, I'll take a virtual beer from each of you or a non-alcoholic beverage from those that don't drink beer as I celebrate my 49th B-day today!! Red Lobster tonight with the wife and a few glasses of good wine.