1. Initial G20 thoughts: Tough to read too much into US/China G20 mtg yet, but we do know this: US is saying "You need to reduce trade surplus by buying more real stuff fr US", not "You need to buy more USTs". The implied change in flows is potentially critical – needs a weaker USD over time, but flows should drive stronger USD near term cet par).

2. Ned Davis Research Global Recession Indicator is now very much in the danger zone, at level last seen in late 2015, late 2011 (EU crisis), late 2008…& it is still rising. Continue to think we are much closer to Fed truly blinking, even as long USD positioning is at 2+ year extremes.

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