Week 15 Fantasy Football Matchups

by Dave Richard | Senior Fantasy Writer

Dec. 14, 2012 2:10 PM ET

Editor's note:Dave Richard breaks down every game from a Fantasy perspective each week with the help of CBSSports.com NFL Insider Pat Kirwan, who will provide his unique take to assist owners in their lineup management.

Had eight-catch, nine-target game at OAK last week but for 88 yards. Don't expect more than 10 Fantasy points, which he hasn't had in each of last five. Ravens have allowed multiple 10+ point Fantasy WRs to two of 13 opponents.

Denver has given up six TDs to TEs over its last eight games and Pitta has been effective in favorable matchups lately.

DST

Ravens

Six of the last seven DSTs vs. DEN have been held to single-digit Fantasy points. No way should the Ravens start if Suggs is out.

With Cam Cameron out of the picture, the expectations are for Joe Flacco to have more flexibility at the line of scrimmage to manipulate the offense. Jim Caldwell wasn't a play caller but he did observe how much Peyton Manning did at the line of scrimmage in Indianapolis. The Ravens worked hard on their no-huddle offense this summer and have over 200 snaps of it this year but in recent weeks it seemed to be on the back burner. I expect it to be back for 20-to-30 snaps a game, especially at home. Against a lesser opponent I'd expect a great game from Flacco but the Broncos will make it tough. -- Pat Kirwan

If the Bears are going to throw, Jeffery could produce. Has 3 TDs in seven games.

DST

Bears

Nine of the last 10 DSTs to play the Packers have scored 10 Fantasy points or less. Bears had 11 Fantasy points in first meeting (five sacks) and have produced under 10 points in three of last four weeks.

For the Bears to keep this one close they must first protect Jay Cutler, who is starting to take a weekly beating. Second, they better be ready for the Packers' run game, which has been consistent. Chicago has given up a 100-plus-yard rusher for seven weeks in a row and the Packers are trying to establish a running game (which helps explain why Aaron Rodgers hasn't been on fire recently). -- Pat Kirwan

Colts have allowed a touchdown to a tight end in four straight after keeping them scoreless since Week 2. Makes it easy to start Daniels, though he doesn't have a TD in each of last five vs. Indy.

DST

Texans

Three of the last four DSTs to play the Colts have posted 12+ Fantasy points thanks in big part to touchdowns and sacks (4 TDs, 11 sacks, nine interceptions).

What kind of chance does Andrew Luck have for some big stats after a let-down last week? Did you see what Tom Brady and his offense did to the Texans last week?! Houston will rebound but Brady left a lot of clues for Luck to study and build a game plan. Up-tempo offenses with exotic formations put stress on Houston and Luck is capable of that style. Though I think Luck has a better chance in the rematch game in Indianapolis to end the season to put up winning numbers, he should put up plenty of passes this week. -- Pat Kirwan

Averaged 5.0 yards per carry on first 11 carries, scored from 32 yards on 12th carry last week. Fins have allowed 10+ Fantasy points to RBs in three of last four and 9+ Fantasy points in seven of last eight. Playing time the only issue.

Wouldn't trust him outside of the deepest of PPR formats. Jags have held opposing WRs to a low 99.7 yards per game over last three with two TDs.

DST

Dolphins

DSTs have put up 11+ Fantasy points in 8 of last 9 vs. Jaguars. Dolphins are a must vs. their former quarterback.

Montell Owens is a tough player who has been waiting his turn patiently for seven years, and he didn't disappoint last week. But he has a tough assignment against the Dolphin run defense this week and I don't believe he will get enough carries to crack the 100-yard mark. I would be more inclined to grab David Wilson or Bilal Powell and count on them in Fantasy. -- Pat Kirwan

Rudolph really let us down last week (two targets, no catches), though he's scored following 2 of 3 zero-point Fantasy performances. Rob Gronkowski is the only TE to post 10+ Fantasy points on the Rams this year.

DST

Vikings

Four of the last five DSTs to play the Rams have scored single-digit Fantasy points including the Niners twice. Vikings a low-end option.

Minnesota has allowed 179.2 yards per game to WRs over its last five. Amendola should be back and busy for Rams (5+ catches in 6 of 8 games).

DST

Rams

Three of the last four DSTs vs. MIN have posted single-digit Fantasy points but Vikings have scored 21 points or less in eight of 13 games.

Many expect the run games to dominate this matchup but there is some room for passing. I don't like the Vikings receivers because Christian Ponder struggles to put up passing yards. In the last seven games Ponder has averaged 137 yards passing a game and only six touchdowns. On the other hand Chris Givens of the Rams is starting to look like a big-play receiver. He has been targeted 30 times in the last three games. Teammate Brandon Gibson caught six passes for 100 last week, so look for the Rams receivers to play moderately well and potentially be the difference in the game's outcome. -- Pat Kirwan

Falcons have allowed 2+ pass TDs in just three games all year and secondary is getting healthy. Manning had 277 yards & 3 TDs vs. ATL in playoffs last year but has had mixed results vs. Mike Nolan, current Falcons defensive coordinator.

Giants have held Rodgers, RG3 & Brees to one TD each over last three weeks (but four TDs to Andy Dalton four weeks ago). Ryan was chewed up by NYG in '11 playoffs. He also hasn't thrown 2+ TDs at home since September (four home games).

You'll start him but Giants have allowed 2 TDs to TEs all year and have allowed just one TE to get 10+ Fantasy points.

DST

Falcons

Eight of last 11 DSTs to play the Giants have posted single-digit Fantasy points. Pass on the Falcons.

Ahmad Bradshaw has foot and knee issues, so David Wilson is in a perfect spot to get more work based off of last week's performance. Atlanta gives up 127 yards on the ground per game and in the last five games it has allowed six rushing touchdowns. Wilson could have big day with well over 100 yards and a touchdown. -- Pat Kirwan

Saints have allowed a touchdown to a tight end in four of last five with 70.6 yards per game in that span. Clark looks good.

DST

Buccaneers

Thanks to nine interceptions, seven sacks, two forced fumbles, three defensive touchdowns and some low scores by the Saints, DSTs vs. NO have posted 17+ Fantasy points. It would be a shock to see the Bucs get at least half that.

Might be playing hurt after going three straight with weak stats (Graham missed first game vs. TB). Bucs allowing 68.0 yards per game to TEs over last three with a score.

DST

Saints

Six of the last eight DSTs vs. TB have posted four Fantasy points or less! No one's using the Saints DST.

Every week I talk about the Saints' inside vertical passing attack and the last few teams seem to be sitting on those routes. Compounding things is the lack of protection Brees is getting and as a result there's an increase in sacks and hits to go along with the interceptions. Brees loves to throw from the pocket but it may be time for more perimeter passing and working the sideline routes. The timing could be right to experiment against a soft Buccaneers pass defense. -- Pat Kirwan

Jamaal Charles blew the doors off the Browns last week, and of the nine RBs with at least 18 carries vs. CLE, all but one have 9+ Fantasy points. ALF has 20 carries in four straight, 110+ yards in three straight.

WRs have scored at least one TD in 10 of 13 games vs. WAS this season. They've also had 185.3 yards per game vs. Redskins over their last three. Gordon is solid again.

DST

Browns

Only three DSTs have topped 10 Fantasy points vs. WAS all year. Browns do have 11+ Fantasy points in 3 of last 4, might be sleeper material.

The Cleveland defense got better when its defensive linemen and cornerback Joe Haden returned to the lineup a few weeks ago. While going 5-3 in their last eight games, the Browns are giving up just 17 points a game. Robert Griffin III will not be at 100 percent and that should give the Browns the edge as the better defensive unit in the game. -- Pat Kirwan

Hasn't scored in four straight & hasn't topped 60 yards in seven straight but Panthers aren't perfect vs. TEs (60 yards and/or a TD to three of last four they've faced).

DST

Chargers

Panthers have held five of the last six DSTs they've faced to 6 Fantasy points or less. Tough to like the Chargers.

I talked with Chargers safety Eric Weddle this week and it was clear to me the team respects Norv Turner and wants to win for him even if things are going bad for the coach. The more the Chargers go to Danario Alexander, the better. He is the first legitimate replacement for Vincent Jackson's production and he's not going anywhere. Defensively, Weddle & Co. have to contain Cam Newton, which can be challenging especially since Ben Roethlisberger ran for 31 yards against them last week and he's no Cam. It could mean more passing for the Chargers and more numbers for Alexander. -- Pat Kirwan

Huge opportunity: Lions pass defense has allowed 221.7 yards per game to WRs over their last three with three TDs. This is the first defense he's seen in a month that doesn't have a shutdown cornerback. Think about it.

Five of last seven DSTs vs. Lions have posted single-digit Fantasy points; only the Packers have had 10 or more points. Pass on the Cards.

After the Cardinals' 58-0 loss last week I'm not so sure there's much left for the Lions to attack. The Cardinals have bad quarterback issues and the Lions will get after whoever plays under center. As for attacking the Cardinals defense, make sure Calvin Johnson gets at least 12 targets and feed Mikel Leshoure the ball 20 times. He only has two games all year with 20 or more carries -- this could be number three. -- Pat Kirwan

Bills pass defense improving but they've still allowed a 100-yard receiver in two of last three and a TD in each of last four. That's tough for Rice, who might not be close to 100 percent with a foot injury.

Boom or bust: 15+ Fantasy points in three of last five, five points or less in other two. Bills have allowed 9+ Fantasy points to multiple WRs in same game just four times all year and just once in last eight games.

DST

Seahawks

Three of last four DSTs vs. BUF have posted 15+ Fantasy points. The Seahawks are coming off a great game and should be fine against the Bills in Toronto.

No TE has posted more than 7 Fantasy points on the Seahawks since Week 7. Chandler's not an ideal start.

DST

Bills

Five of the last six DSTs vs. Seattle have posted 6 Fantasy points or less. Can't go with the Bills unless totally desperate.

The Seahawks are a run-first team and they want to get close to 60 percent run on first down. That goal was easily accomplished last week. The Bills run defense over the past four games has been very good, giving up just 275 yards at 2.8 a rush and only two rushing touchdowns. The Seahawks are going to have to pass more than 13 times in this game. The good news is Wilson has thrown two touchdown passes in each of his last three road games and the Rogers Centre atmosphere in Toronto could be an equalizer he would normally not have in a road game. -- Pat Kirwan

Chiefs have given up a TD to a TE in two of last three and 40+ yards to a TE in seven straight. Just a matter of getting targets.

DST

Raiders

Save for the Panthers, every single defense that's played the Chiefs has posted at least 11 Fantasy points. Raiders had 17 in Week 8.

Brandon Myers has been hot and cold. He usually follows a double-digit target game with a very low number of targets the next game. Last week he had one catch, the week before he had 14 receptions. He's due for a heavy workload this week. And because there are protection issues with the Raiders and the running backs are always injured, Marcel Reese should get back into the flow of this game. -- Pat Kirwan

Expect him to rack up a lot of catches on underneath stuff. Before getting hurt he had 7 catches in 4 of 7 games. Has never scored in consecutive games, though the matchup here could give him a chance.

Steelers have allowed one TD to a TE over their last eight and no more than 68 yards to a tight end all season. Witten will be involved but can't be counted on for a ton of points.

DST

Cowboys

With Big Ben back it's tough to expect the Cowboys to post good stats. Dallas has 11 Fantasy points or less in 9 of its last 10.

Dez Bryant is the Cowboys' big-play receiver with nine touchdown passes -- the same number Jason Witten, Miles Austin and Kevin Ogletree have combined. The Cowboys can't replace that production at this point in the season, so they'll do whatever it takes to get him on the field. Catching with a broken finger isn't easy but Bryant has shown enough lately to prove he's a gamer so I wouldn't put it past him to play and play well. If he doesn't play it means more opportunities to blitz or double-team Witten and the Cowboys offense could become undone. -- Pat Kirwan

Tough call. Has scored in six straight but Niners haven't allowed a rush TD since Week 10 (and have allowed just two all year). Ridley has 71 yards or less in each of the four games where he hasn't rushed for a score.

Despite drops last week, expect Welker to stay involved if only as a quick target to help slow down Niners' pass rush. Niners allowing just 138.0 pass yards per games to WRs over last four, but Pats have a way of blowing that number up.

Five of last six DSTs Niners have faced have scored 7 Fantasy points or less. Not the greatest week ahead for the Patriots DST but they could come close to 10.

The 49ers have to establish a running game if they want to keep Tom Brady off the field and have a chance to win. Colin Kaepernick has three touchdown passes in 127 throws (one every 43 passes) which isn't near enough against Brady's scoring production. Brady throws a touchdown one every 17 throws and he is at home where he's 40-2 in his last 42 regular season games and runs the no-huddle offense to perfection. Keep in mind the Patriots score quickly and a team like San Francisco could be playing catch up, which would put a lot of pressure on Kaepernick. -- Pat Kirwan

Reasons to like Powell: Has 11+ carries each of last four, consistenly playing about 45% of snaps over that span with 4.0 rush average and 1+ TD in 3 of last 4. Reasons to not like Powell: A toe injury and Shonn Greene.

Seven games with Locker: Two 100-total-yard games, one TD. Six games without Locker: Five 100-total-yard games, three TDs. Jets allowing 137.0 total yards per game over last three to RBs with three TDs.

Jets have allowed 7 TDs to WRs in their last five but have done a nice job vs. No. 1 receivers. That stands to mean a tough week for Britt.

DST

Titans

Five of the last six DSTs vs. NYJ have scored an unreal 11+ Fantasy points. Titans have quietly posted 11+ Fantasy points in three of last four.

Defenses play the run first when they play the Titans. Jake Locker isn't at the point where he's the No. 1 threat on the offense. Chris Johnson can become a stop-and-start back and doesn't always just hit the hole. When he gets into the stop and peak style there are lots of negative runs. Johnson might as well become a receiver in games where he hesitates in the run game. The last time Johnson played a Rex Ryan Jet team he had five negative runs and didn't crack the 100-yard mark in 22 carries. The Jets will be prepared for him. -- Pat Kirwan

Would have had another big game if not for two costly drops last week. Philly has allowed at least one 10+ Fantasy point WR in each of last eight games. The Eagles have been torched on deep passes, a specialty of his.

Has a chance to be useful with Celek out. Caught all six of his targets last week. Bengals have improved vs. tight ends, holding opponents to 52.2 total yards per game with no TDs over last five.

DST

Eagles

The last two DSTs vs. Cincy have posted 11+ Fantasy points but Eagles haven't exceeded eight points since Week 1.

I talked with Nick Foles last week and he is one relaxed, confident player. He has great size and a strong arm like Joe Flacco. He will be confronted with a very good Bengals pass rush which will make things difficult for him. The short week doesn't help his cause but I still think he can find a way to throw for over 200 yards and a touchdown after building even more confidence last week. -- Pat Kirwan

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