Will There Be A New US-Led Nuke Deal with Iran?

While everyone is busy trying to predict how much oil Trump's withdrawal from the Iran sanctions deal will take off the market, I suggest we step away from these highly speculative activities (I know the market won't step away, of course, but one can always hope). I think what we need to consider is that Trump is trying to negotiate a new deal with Iran. So far, that new deal is that Iran forever discard any nuclear production of any sort. Of course, Iran isn't going to go for that and I can't imagine what incentives would even be needed to make that happen. The EU also isn't going to go for it because they think it's a non-starter and there's too much at stake. Others might (countries not involved in the original deal). But the bigger point is that this is all a negotiation, as is everything with Trump. The withdrawal and sanctions are not done deals--not even close--so we should refrain from thinking is such conclusive terms as "how much Iranian oil will this take off the market". It's far too fluid for such narrow speculation.