With
the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season upon us, experts from the
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration are reiterating their
prediction for an above-normal number of storms. NOAA scientists warn
this year’s relatively quiet start is not an indication of what
the remainder of the season has in store.

“This
year’s three named storms may pale in comparison to the record
nine storms that formed through early August 2005, but conditions
will be favorable for above-normal activity for the rest of this season
— so we are not off the hook by any means,” said Vice
Admiral Conrad C.
Lautenbacher, Jr., U.S. Navy (Ret.), under secretary of commerce
for oceans and atmosphere and NOAA administrator.

For
the entire 2006 season, which ends November 30, NOAA is projecting
a total of 12 to 15 named storms of which seven to nine will intensify
to hurricanes, including three or four becoming major hurricanes —
rated at Category 3 or higher. This forecast is slightly lower than
the outlook issued in May, but remains above the seasonal average
of 11 named storms, six hurricanes and two major hurricanes.

According
to Gerry Bell, Ph.D., NOAA’s lead seasonal hurricane forecaster,
the major climate factors expected to influence this year’s
activity are the ongoing multi-decadal signal, which produces wind
and atmospheric pressure patterns favorable for hurricane formation,
along with ongoing warmer-than-normal sea surface temperatures. NOAA
attributes these same factors to the current active Atlantic hurricane
era that began in 1995.

Bell
noted that conditions were ripe last year for early season storm development.
"La Niña-like convection in the central equatorial Pacific
during June and July of 2005 contributed to the development of numerous
early-season storms," he said. "Conditions this year reflect
a more typical active season, with peak activity expected during August-October."

NOAA’s
seasonal outlook, however, does not specify where and when tropical
storms and hurricanes could strike. “Science has not evolved
enough to accurately predict on seasonal timescales when and where
these storms will likely make landfall,” said Bell. “Exactly
when and where landfall occurs is strongly controlled by the weather
patterns in place as the storms approach land. These weather patterns
generally cannot be predicted more than several days in advance.”

“As
we approach the peak of the hurricane season, our message remains
the same, be informed and be prepared,” said Max Mayfield, director
of NOAA’s National Hurricane Center. “Preventing the loss
of life and minimizing property damage from hurricanes are responsibilities
shared by all. Remember, one hurricane hitting your neighborhood is
enough to make it a bad season.”

In
2007 NOAA, an agency of the U.S. Commerce Department, celebrates 200
years of science and service to the nation. Starting with the establishment
of the U.S. Coast and Geodetic Survey in 1807 by Thomas Jefferson,
much of America's scientific heritage is rooted in NOAA. The agency
is dedicated to enhancing economic security and national safety through
the prediction and research of weather and climate-related events
and information service delivery for transportation, and by providing
environmental stewardship of our nation's coastal and marine resources.
Through the emerging Global Earth Observation System of Systems (GEOSS),
NOAA is working with its federal partners and more than 60 countries
to develop a global monitoring network that is as integrated as the
planet it observes.