Thinking of a different worldhttp://www.toadworld.co.uk/
Wed, 10 Apr 2019 23:36:21 +0000Wed, 10 Apr 2019 23:36:21 +0000Jekyll v3.7.4Holiday sketches, 2017-Q3<p>Some sketches of my holiday. Click through to see bigger versions.</p>
<p><a href="/images/2017-Q3/sketch_01.jpg"><img src="/images/2017-Q3/sketch_01_small.jpg" /></a></p>
<p><a href="/images/2017-Q3/sketch_02.jpg"><img src="/images/2017-Q3/sketch_02_small.jpg" /></a></p>
<p><a href="/images/2017-Q3/sketch_03.jpg"><img src="/images/2017-Q3/sketch_03_small.jpg" /></a></p>
<p><a href="/images/2017-Q3/sketch_04.jpg"><img src="/images/2017-Q3/sketch_04_small.jpg" /></a></p>
<p><a href="/images/2017-Q3/sketch_05.jpg"><img src="/images/2017-Q3/sketch_05_small.jpg" /></a></p>
<p>and because I like how the lines turned out, the third one again with the contrast cranked up:</p>
<p><a href="/images/2017-Q3/sketch_03_contrast.jpg"><img src="/images/2017-Q3/sketch_03_contrast_small.jpg" /></a></p>
Fri, 25 Aug 2017 00:00:00 +0000http://www.toadworld.co.uk/personal/2017/08/25/holiday-pictures.html
http://www.toadworld.co.uk/personal/2017/08/25/holiday-pictures.htmlholidaysketchespersonalDeleting Facebook<p>Any opinions expressed here are my own.</p>
<p>Our world stands at the brink of a precipice. Climate change and political instability are fed by technological advancements that exacerbate inequality.</p>
<p>Big Data is one such inequality. Michal Kosinski, a researcher at Cambridge University’s Psychometrics Centre, showed that one year’s worth of Facebook activity was enough to predict a person’s behaviour with more accuracy than a lover (<a href="https://motherboard.vice.com/en_us/article/how-our-likes-helped-trump-win">article</a>). That same article reports this method was used by the Brexit campaign and Donald Trump to deal two damaging blows to post-war Western culture. Trump’s campaign targeted black women with a custom video reminding them of a racist speech Hillary Clinton made in the 1990s.</p>
<p>Why is this important? Because no-one else got to see that video.</p>
<p>Democracy relies on debate. We as a society need to disagree on things openly so we can talk it out and find a consensus. This process is painful and imperfect. Targeting advertising at each individual person means our views on reality will diverge so much it becomes impossible for me to talk to my neighbours. This frightening move makes public debate impossible. Long term, I fear for our democracies.</p>
<p>Facebook <a href="https://www.facebook.com/help/152637448140583?helpref=uf_permalink">claim they don’t sell your data</a>. Instead they allow Facebook Applications such as ‘Most Used Words’ to <a href="http://www.wired.co.uk/article/facebook-app-privacy-settings-most-used-words">quietly download everything you’ve ever uploaded</a> for free. This data – <strong>your</strong> data – is not harmless. As shown above it can be used to predict with startling accuracy what political candidates you will support and the evil people who use this data will attempt to <strong>prevent you from voting</strong> if they don’t like your democratic choice.</p>
<p>I can’t use Facebook any longer. It’s not moral and it’s not safe. I don’t like the changes it has wrought in me, where each day I want a small endorphin hit from logging on. I don’t like the way it lays claim to ownership of my friendships. I don’t like the way it encourages me to neglect my friendships with people who aren’t Facebook users. I don’t like the way it encourages everyone to think of friends as targets for advertising our lives at. I don’t like the way I wish my friends happy birthday because some machine told me to do so.</p>
<p>The biggest draw of Facebook is its network effects – all of your friends are on Facebook, so you want to be on Facebook. In my opinion they’re abusing this power. It’s my moral duty to vote with my feet and so weaken the network effect for all of you, my friends.</p>
<p>On 2017-02-19 I will permanently delete my Facebook account.</p>
<p><strong>Simple Privacy</strong></p>
<p>I’m not a security professional, so I’m going to tell you what I’m doing while making it clear I have no specialist knowledge. The only way I learn about these things is reading tech magazines and blogs. These are some things I’ve tried to do to keep myself safe online:</p>
<ul>
<li>I took a <a href="https://myaccount.google.com/privacycheckup/">Google Privacy checkup</a>. Took around around 20 minutes.</li>
<li>I installed the <a href="https://www.eff.org/privacybadger">Privacy Badger</a> extension to prevent malicious Facebook tracking of your activity across the entire web. Install and forget.</li>
<li>I installed the <a href="https://www.ovpn.se/en">uBlock Origin</a> extension to block adverts and tracking cookies. Install and forget. Remember that newspapers rely on advertising for revenue and square this with your conscience as you see fit.</li>
</ul>
<p><strong>Moderate Complexity Privacy</strong></p>
<ul>
<li>I pay for a VPN to prevent e.g. hotels from snooping on my web activity. I am happy with <a href="https://www.ovpn.se/en">oVPN</a>. Install and forget, and straightforward instructions are provided by oVPN.</li>
<li>One could use the <a href="https://www.torproject.org/projects/torbrowser.html.en">Tor Browser</a> to prevent e.g. your hotel or government snooping on your web activity. The Tor Browser would replace your regular web browser. It is free but slower than paying for a VPN.</li>
</ul>
<p><strong>More Privacy</strong></p>
<p>All of any security effort is a tradeoff. The things I do above are easy. Quitting Facebook will be hard. The Electronic Frontier Foundation gives advice on how to stay safe online. I’m going to have a think about how best to ask people to contact me. My email addresses will stay current.</p>
<p><strong>Update 2017-02-06</strong></p>
<p>Joe Wass has written something similar <a href="http://blog.afandian.com/2017/01/why-i-am-giving-up-on-facebook/">over on his blog</a>, and in it he links to <a href="https://veekaybee.github.io/facebook-is-collecting-this/">Vicki Boykis’ analysis</a>. I should also mention that deleting my Facebook account means deleting my WhatsApp account.</p>
Sun, 05 Feb 2017 00:00:00 +0000http://www.toadworld.co.uk/personal/2017/02/05/deleting-facebook.html
http://www.toadworld.co.uk/personal/2017/02/05/deleting-facebook.htmlfacebookprivacyprivacy badgereffelectronic frontier foundationuBlock OriginVPNoVPNTorpersonal'Cuck': an ugly word from an ugly movement<p>A note on the word ‘cuck’, i.e. ‘cuckold’, popularised by supporters of President Elect Donald J. Trump. It’s starting to be used more widely.</p>
<p>It’s a damaging word. It critises people – men – for something their partner has done. Unfair! If someone cheats on you, that’s on them, not you. By using it as an insult, you say men should control their partners into not cheating. Insane! If someone cheats on you, walk away. It’s not worth it, and never one’s fault.</p>
<p>The insult is a political one, but its meaning includes sexual humiliation: the modern meaning of ‘cuckold’ is a man being sexually gratified by watching a superior man pleasure his partner. The insulter is saying the following:</p>
<ul>
<li>You are inferior,</li>
<li>Your situation is humiliating, and</li>
<li>You are complicit in and enjoying being humiliated.</li>
</ul>
<p>The implication is that the troubles in people’s lives is their fault and that they should feel ashamed of them. I encourage you to dissuade people from using this word.</p>
<h2 id="further-notes">Further notes</h2>
<p>There is also ‘cuckquean’ which dates back to 1562. ‘Cuck’ could reasonably be a contraction of that word too. The comments above broadly apply with the genders reversed. The abrupt structure above is my trying out of Trump’s style.</p>
Thu, 29 Dec 2016 23:00:00 +0000http://www.toadworld.co.uk/website/2016/12/29/cuck-an-ugly-word-from-an-ugly-movement.html
http://www.toadworld.co.uk/website/2016/12/29/cuck-an-ugly-word-from-an-ugly-movement.htmlwebsiteBrexit: Political round-up III<p>The Brexit referendum was now four months less eight days ago. Ordinarily my strategic thoughts would go straight into my diary but I wish to to take the temperature of my friends and acquaintances. Here is my question:</p>
<p>Do you think you will feel safe in Britain in ten years time?</p>
<h2 id="physical-safety">Physical safety</h2>
<p>‘Safe’ includes safety walking down the street. There were ~40% more racially or religiously motivated offences in July 2016 than July 2015(<a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/559319/hate-crime-1516-hosb1116.pdf">ref</a>) – <em>edit, also 10% increase in antisemitism</em> (<a href="http://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm201617/cmselect/cmhaff/136/13602.htm?utm_source=136&amp;utm_campaign=modulereports&amp;utm_medium=fullbullet">ref</a>). The rate of offences dropped back down to previous levels by the end of August. The Tories have recently announced they want the NHS to function without foreign doctors(<a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/10/03/jeremy-hunt-nhs-will-become-self-sufficient-and-no-longer-rely-o/">ref</a>), and that foreign children must be registered by their schools with the Department of Education from this autumn(<a href="http://schoolsweek.co.uk/schools-must-collect-data-on-immigrant-children-from-autumn/">ref</a>). They announced and retracted plans to name-and-shame businesses who employed too high a percentage of foreigners (<a href="http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/amber-rudd-immigration-speech-tory-conference-brexit-foreign-workers-british-jobs-a7345536.html">ref</a>).</p>
<p>In ten years time, do you expect to feel safe walking down the street? If yes, and you are white British, do you expect this to hold true for people of colour or white non-British people? What is the breakdown of this feeling of safety based on religion and sexuality?</p>
<p>What street? Is it OK if I expect to feel safe because I live in London?</p>
<p>I cannot decide how alarmed I should be about the direction my country’s culture is heading. The Tories have 46% popular support(<a href="http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/9766">ref</a>). YouGov show the retracted plans to shame businesses for employing foreigners were supported by a majority of people(<a href="https://yougov.co.uk/news/2016/10/06/public-backs-plans-make-companies-say-how-many-for/">ref</a>). My brain is saying “Very alarmed”.</p>
<h2 id="economic-safety">Economic Safety</h2>
<p>Britain voted to leave the EU. In one year, GBP/USD has fallen from £1:$1.5489 to £1:$1.2206, a 21% drop. A third of that drop came on the day of the referendum. On pure exchange rates, the Pound has not been weaker since 1985(<a href="http://fxtop.com/en/historical-exchange-rates.php?MA=1&amp;C1=GBP&amp;C2=USD&amp;A=1&amp;YYYY1=2015&amp;MM1=10&amp;DD1=15&amp;YYYY2=2016&amp;MM2=10&amp;DD2=15&amp;LANG=en">ref</a>). On trade-weighted exchange rates, the Pound has not been this weak since records began in in 1975(<a href="http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/value-of-trade-weighted-pound-sterling-slumps-to-historic-new-low-a7357181.html">ref</a>).</p>
<p>PwC predicted the UK’s financial sector would be worth somewhere between £2-12 billion less per annum as a result of Brexit, with a drop of 1.2%-3.5% in GDP(<a href="https://www.pwc.co.uk/financial-services/assets/Leaving-the-EU-implications-for-the-UK-FS-sector.pdf">ref</a>). Executives at CitiBank and Morgan Stanley have warned they may begin moving jobs out of Britain as soon as 2017(<a href="http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/brexit-latest-morgan-stanley-lloyds-citi-banks-move-london-2017-exodus-a7356176.html">ref</a>) if we lose financial passporting. While I think the financial services are of dubious worth, “financial services being taxed in Paris” is going to be worse for Britain than “financial services being taxed in London”. EU Council president Tusk has said there will be no ‘soft’ Brexit(<a href="http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/full-hard-brexit-speech-european-council-president-donald-tusk-1586332">ref</a>).</p>
<p>I do not know enough about economics to draw conclusions from this. I read that a weaker pound favours exports and has been good for tourism(<a href="https://www.ft.com/content/4186fb3c-5efa-11e6-bb77-a121aa8abd95">ref</a>), but that we import lots of food. The conclusions from sources I trust (e.g. <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/18048862-6519-3cbb-8c3a-149ce6d9a982">ref</a>) are phrased in terms of economics and so are opaque to me. Charles Stross, the author, goes as far as to predict deaths from famine(<a href="http://www.antipope.org/charlie/blog-static/2016/10/facts-of-life-and-death.html">ref</a>) in his analysis similar to the one you are currently reading.</p>
<p>I cannot decide how alarmed I should be about the direction my country’s economy is heading, both on a personal level and on the level of concern for my neighbours. The changes that are happening are extremely large and there are too many motivated players for me to make any guesses. The City of London is not going to sit idly by. The Bank of England has received praise for its handling of the situation. My brain is saying “Very alarmed”.</p>
<h2 id="other-considerations">Other considerations</h2>
<p>The Northern Ireland peace process is predicated on EU law(<a href="http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/northern-ireland/brexit-challenge-northern-ireland-peace-process-based-on-being-part-of-the-eu-court-hears-35022333.html">ref</a>). Scotland has announced it will attempt a second Independence Referendum(<a href="http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/second-independence-referendum-last-thing-scotland-needs-more-division-1586412">ref</a>). The loss of Britain could destabilize the EU(<a href="http://time.com/4381428/brexit-eu-response/">ref</a>). The uncertainty is large.</p>
<h2 id="actions-to-take">Actions to take</h2>
<p>I am bewildered. There are no elections soon, and anyway the country appears to support our current path. The Labour Party has at least finished its most recent leadership crisis. Perhaps there will be some traction there soon.</p>
<p>Parliament is opposed to these changes and there are two cases arguing that Parliament must be given a binding vote on invoking Article 50(<a href="http://www.economist.com/news/britain/21708649-government-faces-legal-well-political-challenges-triggering-brexit">ref</a>) which will formally begin the process of the UK leaving the EU. I have added to my to-do list to donate to these cases.</p>
<p>I see two options: First, I can trust and hope that Britain will pull back from the brink of madness, or that London at least will be insulated from the worst of it. Second, I can take a break from the UK until things calm down. Third, I can do a mixture, and define a set of socioeconomic indicators that I will track that will result in me leaving the country.</p>
<p>How do you feel? Am I overreacting?</p>
Fri, 14 Oct 2016 23:00:00 +0000http://www.toadworld.co.uk/brexit/politics/may/tories/gbp/pound/eu/scotland/2016/10/14/a-description-of-brexit.html
http://www.toadworld.co.uk/brexit/politics/may/tories/gbp/pound/eu/scotland/2016/10/14/a-description-of-brexit.htmlbrexitpoliticsmaytoriesgbppoundeuscotlandIn criticism of the Labour Party<p>Alan Johnson wrote in the Times this week that [moderate Labour] must “recapture this party again otherwise it’s dead and finished and gone.”</p>
<p>There is a deeper systemic problem in Labour than its politics. The problem is its lack of effective bureaucracy.</p>
<p>I joined Labour several years ago in order that I might participate in British politics beyond simply voting once every four years. Immediately I joined I started receiving approximately five emails a week, on different topics and different granularities. Some emails would be about a CLP local meeting. Some emails would be about a women-in-Labour London-wide meeting. Some emails would be about helping with by-elections, in which I have never indicated any desire or ability. The overall effect is incoherence.</p>
<p>These emails should be sent bundled together, once a week, with Labour branding. They should be sent by a centralized body with whom the CLPs schedule their emails for sending. This has the nice effect that you can see which CLPs do not send weekly emails, or perhaps send ten words, or ten thousand words, and you can support them from the centre. CLPs should of course still be able to contact their local party members directly.</p>
<p>I see no awareness that this is broken. I see no awareness that sending five emails a week, plus text messages, is worse than sending zero.</p>
<p>The lack of bureaucracy extends to the very top. Ed Miliband, shy Geography teacher, should never have been allowed to become Labour party leader. Corbyn, despised by the PLP, should never have been allowed to become Labour leader. Owen Smith, a man it is impossible to write an interesting sentence about, should never have been allowed to mount a challenge for Labour leader.</p>
<p>I want the Labour party to modernize. I want it to understand that the Millenials and Centennials consume completely different media from the generations before and that interacting with these media require intelligent curation. Previously, it might have been acceptable for each CLP to buy advertising space in their local papers – scalable, desirable even as each CLP becomes engaged in its local conversation – but today the world is decidedly non-local. Last Friday on the Tube some strangers were talking about the BART, and I butted in to mention that Shoreline is gaining cycle routes: our shared context was literally infrastructure projects on the other side of the globe. Last night I sat at the table of two French people and played with them Rummy. I had never met them before, and they had learned their rules from Wikipedia. We didn’t exchange names.</p>
<p>It is important to understand this change. Like never before low-paid work can be moved from country to country at will. A ‘medical data entry in London’ job can (and should by the laws of capitalism) be broken down into ‘scan these papers in London’ and ‘medical data entry from scans in Oregon’. Manufacturing jobs, retail jobs, and now informational jobs are all seeing the same pressure of non-locality. The gap between city and country grows deeper because of it.</p>
<p>The Labour party as-is cannot survive, no matter who is leading.</p>
Sat, 17 Sep 2016 23:00:00 +0000http://www.toadworld.co.uk/labor/politics/uk/corbyn/johnson/2016/09/17/in-criticism-of-the-labour-party.html
http://www.toadworld.co.uk/labor/politics/uk/corbyn/johnson/2016/09/17/in-criticism-of-the-labour-party.htmllaborpoliticsukcorbynjohnsonServer migration to GitHub/Jekyll!<p>I finally bit the bullet and migrated from BlueHost/WordPress to GitHub/Jekyll. This made this site literally ten times faster to load.</p>
<p>WordPress uses PHP, which is usually a very slow interpreted language. Because my site hosts stories with all sorts of complicated cross-references (stories, chapters, subchapters) I was making PHP do a lot of work. Pingdom.com reports my old site would take 2.31s to load the front page. I refer to the <a href="https://www.nngroup.com/articles/powers-of-10-time-scales-in-ux/">Nielsen Norman Group</a>: &lt; 0.1s is ‘instant’, &lt; 1s is ‘okay’, and anything more than 1s is bad. My own monitoring showed that sometimes BlueHost/Wordpress would take more than 5s to load the front page of my website. That’s awful.</p>
<p>Jekyll does all of the cross-referencing in one go before I upload a change. This means GitHub has a much simpler job when serving my data (RAM-bound rather than CPU bound). Jekyll is also more of a ‘power tool’ than WordPress. A user of Jekyll is expected to know how to write raw HTML and understand how to write their own sensible data structures for iterating over. This meant the optimisations that were too hard to do to my WordPress site were ‘easy’ on my Jekyll site.</p>
<p>(‘Easy’ here means “I wrote a git precommit hook to stat the age of the cached javascript…” etc. etc.)</p>
<p>Now this site loads in 0.255s. That’s almost ‘instant’! Thank you Jekyll! Thank you GitHub pages!</p>
Sat, 23 Jul 2016 12:55:37 +0000http://www.toadworld.co.uk/jekyll/update/2016/07/23/welcome-to-jekyll.html
http://www.toadworld.co.uk/jekyll/update/2016/07/23/welcome-to-jekyll.htmljekyllupdateBrexit: Political Roundup II<p>I fear for our country. The sudden surge in xenophobic crime is not something I recognise. I’ve donated to those affected but I fear I’m staying within the narrative of metropolitan elite helping the Other before the British working class. The likely next PM (Theresa May) will steady the boat but do nothing for our class divisions.</p>
<p>I fear for our economy. My previous job was as a Python developer. On my team there was an Latvian, a Pole, an Italian, a Greek and finally two Britons. The two Britons were the least experienced. If British technology companies suddenly lose 60% of their workforce they will perish. A similar story holds for the NHS. A similar story holds for our financial services. We cannot afford the worst-case scenario.</p>
<p>I fear for our democracy. I’ve stopped acting like a Millenial and have signed up to pay for the Financial Times (£1/month via Google Play Newsstand), the Guardian, the New Statesman and the <a href="http://www.theneweuropean.co.uk">New European</a> (£2/issue, 4 issues only). Diverse media is vital for democracy.</p>
<h1 id="politically">Politically</h1>
<ul>
<li>CON (330 seats): <strong>moderate disarray</strong> after David Cameron (Conservative leader, Prime Minister) said he would step down. The careers of <a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06/30/boris-johnson-wont-run-for-prime-minister-after-michael-gove-ent/">Johnstone</a> and <a href="http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/michael-goves-racist-mug-revelation-8386664">Gove</a> (leaders of the victorious Leave campaign) are both ruined after infighting. The remaining candidates for Conservative leader and thus Prime Minister are <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jul/07/tory-leadership-top-trumps-theresa-may-vs-andrea-leadsom">Theresa May and Andrea Leadsom</a>. May is <a href="https://yougov.co.uk/news/2016/07/05/theresa-may-leads-conservative-leadership-race/">the heavy favourite</a>. Leadsom has been criticised by Conservative MPs for <a href="http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/andrea-leadsom-theresa-may-vile-insulting-children-conservative-leadership-tory-a7128311.html">campaigning on May’s infertility</a>. The next Prime Minister will be decided by <a href="http://www.westminsteradvisers.co.uk/2015/03/follow-the-leader-rules-for-party-leadership-elections/">a vote of Conservative party members</a>.</li>
<li>LAB (230 seats): <strong>complete disarray</strong> after Jeremy Corbyn (Labour leader) <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-36647458">lost a symbolic vote of no confidence</a> from the Parliamentary Labour Party (PLP) by 172-40. Angela Eagle will <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-36756975">stand as his opponent</a> in the upcoming Labour leadership elections. The PLP are attempting <a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/07/10/labour-party-leader-jeremy-corbyn-faces-angela-eagle-leadership/">to prevent Corbyn from standing</a> as <a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/labour-party-membership-applications-surge-100000-since-eu-referendum_uk_577be9e8e4b073366f0fe97f">100,000 new members join</a>. The new members are presumed to be Corbyn supporters: if the PLP do not prevent Corbyn from standing the presumption is that <a href="http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/staggers/2016/07/labour-go-war-jeremy-corbyn-holds-best-cards">he shall retain the leadership</a> against the wishes of the PLP.</li>
<li>?????? (371 seats): <strong>unlikely, but astounding</strong>. Pro-EU Conservative and Labour MPs are informally discussing <a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/07/10/talks-about-forming-new-pro-eu-centrist-party-reported-at-westmi/">forming a new centrist party</a> in the event Andrea Leadsom should win the Conservative leadership. With 172 Labour MPs unhappy with Corbyn and at least 199 Conservatives preferring May over Leadsom, this party would theoretically have an immediate Commons majority despite never having fought an election.</li>
<li>SNP (54 seats): <strong>little airtime</strong> after EU leaders <a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/07/09/snp-mep-scotland-should-get-special-eu-deal-because-uk-not-a-cou/">rebuffed initial advances</a> from Nicola Sturgeon (SNP leader) to allow an independent Scotland to remain in the EU. The National Scot talks about <a href="http://www.thenational.scot/news/treasury-mandarin-who-warned-against-currency-union-now-says-scotland-leaving-uk-is-now-a-golden-opportunity.19786http://www.thenational.scot/news/treasury-mandarin-who-warned-against-currency-union-now-says-scotland-leaving-uk-is-now-a-golden-opportunity.19786">currency divorce from rUK</a> (‘remaining UK’) and the Herald Scotland has Sturgeon <a href="http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/14609476.Nicola_Sturgeon__Theresa_May_s_refusal_to_guarantee_EU_nationals_the_right_to_remain_is_a_disgrace_that_shames_her/?ref=mr&amp;lp=2">commenting on the Conservative leadership race</a>.</li>
<li>LIB/UKIP/GRN/UDP/SF/etc.: the Lib Dems will fight the next general election on <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/jun/30/lib-dems-brexit-general-election-eu-referendum-remain">remaining in the EU</a>. Nigel Farage has <a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-07-04/farage-resigns-as-ukip-leader-adding-to-brexit-political-turmoil">resigned as UKIP leader</a> for the third time, saying “I now feel that I’ve done my bit”.</li>
</ul>
<h1 id="culturally">Culturally</h1>
<ul>
<li>Serious xenophobic attacks <a href="https://www.rt.com/uk/350223-racism-hate-crime-brexit/">continue to rise</a>. In the last week:
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/1356778/halal-butcher-in-the-midlands-is-firebombed-as-tensions-run-high-after-brexit-vote/">Halal butcher firebombed</a> in West Midlands.</li>
<li><a href="http://www.plymouthherald.co.uk/polish-family-in-plymouth-terrorised-by-racist-arsonists-who-left-note-saying-go-home/story-29488159-detail/story.html">Polish family home set on fire</a> in Plymouth with letter stating “next be your family”.</li>
<li><a href="http://www.edp24.co.uk/news/shop_owner_describes_arson_attack_at_eastern_european_store_in_magdalen_street_norwich_1_4608759">Eastern European shop set on fire</a> with family inside in Norwich.</li>
<li>Envelopes containing white powder with ‘Paki filth’ <a href="http://www.standard.co.uk/news/crime/racist-letters-containing-white-powder-sent-to-mosques-across-london-in-latest-islamophobic-hate-a3291406.html">sent to mosques across London</a>. ‘Paki’, short for Pakistani, is commonly used as a racial slur against people of Pakistani or West Indian descent.</li>
</ul>
</li>
</ul>
<h1 id="economically">Economically</h1>
<ul>
<li>Sterling has <a href="http://uk.reuters.com/article/us-britain-markets-sterling-idUKKCN0ZN1R0">fallen sharply to 31-year lows</a> against USD. The last time sterling was this low was immediately after Britain was forced out of the Exchange Rate Mechanism in 1985.</li>
<li>Six commercial property firms <a href="http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/property-funds-freeze-highlights-their-illiquid-nature-theres-no-need-panic-1569707">will not allow investors to withdraw their money</a> in the near term. Commercial property sales take a long time to organise. Sudden withdrawal of investment would force such funds to sell their assets for less than they are worth.</li>
<li>There are conflicting reports of whether financial and technology companies are considering moving to other EU countries (<a href="http://uk.businessinsider.com/brexit-goldman-sachs-vodafone-moving-uk-jobs-eu-referendum-2016-6">pro</a>, <a href="http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-fintech-idUKKCN0WA237">pro</a>, <a href="http://www.express.co.uk/finance/city/685342/Banks-BACK-Britain-HSBC-Barclays-jobs-WON-T-move-to-Europe">con</a>). An important factor is whether the UK will retain financial “<a href="http://www.eu-facts.org.uk/arguments-by-topic/will-uk-financial-services-suffer-from-losing-passporting-rights-after-brexit/">passporting rights</a>” after Brexit. The German Free Democratic Party has begun <a href="http://www.thelocal.de/20160705/fdp-woos-votes-and-businesses-to-berlin-brexit">advertising Berlin to business in London</a>.</li>
<li>George Osborne has promised to <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-36699642">cut corporation tax to 15% (down from 20%)</a> to make Britain more attractive to international businesses.</li>
</ul>
Sun, 10 Jul 2016 12:48:03 +0000http://www.toadworld.co.uk/brexit-political-roundup-ii/
http://www.toadworld.co.uk/brexit-political-roundup-ii/brexitpoliticssoftwareHow can I fight Brexit?<p>I’m sick of losing. I’ve lost every political fight since 2010. The AV referendum: lost. The 2015 election: lost. The Brexit referendum: lost. I only ‘won’ in 2010 because I love coalitions.</p>
<p>Situation:</p>
<ul>
<li>The economy has finished its initial plunge but is in a bad state.</li>
<li>The areas which voted Leave most strongly are those areas which receive EU subsidy because they are poorest. I expect these areas to be hit hardest by the coming recession.</li>
<li>Britain is about to get poorer, but our divisions are about to get worse. Risk of fascism.</li>
</ul>
<p>My response:</p>
<ul>
<li>Wrote a handwritten letter to my MP asking him to block Brexit. It <em>is</em> elitist to ignore a referendum outcome, but Brexit will hurt everyone, the poorest hardest. Handwritten letters count the most: emails to your MP are near worthless. If you write to your MP, write a handwritten letter and post it.</li>
<li>Taking paid subscriptions to progressive traditional media. Can’t countenance not contributing any more; the media narrative this time round was too poisonous. Please do same.</li>
<li>Continuing my political party subscriptions. None of them inspire me currently, but it gives me voting rights so I’ll continue to affect the political conversation that way.</li>
</ul>
<p>I don’t have the energy to campaign directly. Automatable suggestions welcome.</p>
Tue, 28 Jun 2016 23:14:44 +0000http://www.toadworld.co.uk/how-can-i-fight-brexit/
http://www.toadworld.co.uk/how-can-i-fight-brexit/brexitpoliticsBrexit: Political round-up<p>Summary: the UK is in deep trouble. Let’s take it section by section.</p>
<h1 id="geographically">Geographically</h1>
<ul>
<li><strong>Scotland</strong> voted Remain. A second Scottish Independence referendum is <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-36621030">‘highly likely’</a>. Sturgeon, head of the SNP, has said Holyrood could <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-36633244">block Brexit</a>.</li>
<li><strong>London</strong> voted Remain. Sadiq Khan <a href="http://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/london-referendum-results-sadiq-khan-bids-to-reassure-london-as-it-votes-by-60-per-cent-for-remain-a3279991.html">reassured EU citizens living in London</a> and has stated <a href="http://www.cityam.com/244141/sadiq-khan-london-must-have-seat-around-brexit-negotiating">London must have a seat at the Brexit negotiations</a>.</li>
<li><strong>Northern Ireland</strong> voted Remain. Sinn Fein have <a href="http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-northern-ireland-eu-referendum-result-latest-live-border-poll-united-martin-mcguinness-a7099276.html">called for a re-unification poll</a>. The Irish Times report fears of an <a href="http://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/what-does-brexit-nightmare-mean-for-ireland-1.2697702">Irish recession</a> and a re-ignition of the Troubles, describing Brexit as “<a href="http://www.irishtimes.com/news/world/brexit/irish-times-view-brexit-a-bewildering-act-of-self-harm-1.2698212">a bewildering act of self-harm</a>“.</li>
<li><strong>England</strong> voted Leave, notably the <a href="http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/labour-heartlands-give-huge-backing-8271074">Labour heartlands</a> in the North of England. These areas loathe Westminster after <a href="http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk/2016/06/i-want-my-country-back">decades of mistreatment</a>.</li>
<li><strong>Cornwall</strong> and <strong>Wales</strong> voted Leave. They are both now clamouring to continue receiving EU subsidy. Since 2000 <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-36619404">Wales has received £4bn</a> and <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-cornwall-36616955">Cornwall has received £1bn</a> from the EU.</li>
</ul>
<h1 id="economically">Economically</h1>
<ul>
<li>The Pound has <a href="http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=GBP&amp;to=USD&amp;view=1M">dropped 6.5%</a> against the dollar after the announcement of Brexit. This is a 9% drop since January when campaigning began.</li>
<li>UK research relies on the EU for <a href="http://www.vox.com/2016/6/24/12023772/brexit-vote-uk-science-terrified">16% of its funding</a>; the EU contributed approximately <a href="http://blogs.channel4.com/factcheck/factcheck-brexit-hurt-science/22650">£3.4bn between 2007-13</a> to UK science. The expected ~£20m drop in <a href="http://www.wsj.com/articles/arts-world-assesses-how-brexit-will-play-on-funding-1466859029">EU Arts funding</a> makes the UK film industry less attractive to US studios that might film here.</li>
<li><a href="http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/a3a92744-3a52-11e6-9a05-82a9b15a8ee7.html#axzz4CiP0aQFs">The Financial Times reports banks are already preparing to leave London</a>. HSBC indicated it will <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-36629745">move 1000 jobs to Paris</a> if the UK loses access to the Single Market.</li>
<li>Whitbread indicated they would reduce investment as Brexit <a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/06/21/costa-coffee-gives-whitbread-sales-a-jolt-amid-weak-hotel-market/">would hit UK tourism</a>.</li>
</ul>
<h1 id="politically">Politically</h1>
<ul>
<li>CON: Cameron will <a href="http://www.independent.co.uk/news/people/david-cameron-resigns-prime-minister-samantha-cameron-emotional-brexit-eu-referendum-a7100126.html">step down as Prime Minister</a>. There is <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-36618738">no clear successor</a>.</li>
<li>LAB: Corbyn’s shadow cabinet have chosen this period of relative quiet to <a href="http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/live-labour-resignations-tories-turmoil-8284555">attack their own leader</a>. They are proposing a vote of no confidence.</li>
<li>LIB: Farron has pledged to <a href="http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-eu-referendum-result-lib-dems-remain-liberal-democrats-live-policy-stay-leave-a7103186.html">disregard the referendum result</a> and keep the UK in the EU should the Lib Dems be elected.</li>
<li>UKIP: Farage <a href="http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-eu-referendum-nigel-farage-nhs-350-million-pounds-live-health-service-u-turn-a7102831.html">backtracked Vote Leave NHS promises</a> immediately after the polls closed and has denied that <a href="http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/nigel-farage-says-recession-not-8287362">Brexit has caused a British recession</a>.</li>
<li>SNP: As mentioned under ‘Geographically’, the SNP is promising a second Scottish Independence referendum.</li>
<li>EU leaders are split over the <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/26/eu-founding-members-britain-agree-quick-divorce-europe-exit">pace of Brexit negotiations</a>. The French foreign minister has asked the UK to have a new PM ‘<a href="http://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/683313/Brexit-vote-France-Britain-trigger-Article-50-EU-choose-new-Prime-Minister-within-days">within days’</a>. Merkel has <a href="http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/brexit-has-triggered-diplomacy-and-crisis-response-in-berlin-a-1099787.html">advised caution</a>.</li>
</ul>
<h1 id="culturally">Culturally</h1>
<ul>
<li>Lord Ashcroft’s has <a href="http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2016/06/how-the-united-kingdom-voted-and-why/">published polls</a> showing the breakdown of votes. Voters were more likely to vote Leave if they were <a href="http://www.spectator.co.uk/2016/06/britains-great-divide/">older, poorer and less educated</a> — cross reference above with the neglected Labour heartlands. Younger voters have been <a href="http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2016/06/brexit-political-awakening-young-people/">left disheartened</a>.</li>
<li><a href="http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/brexit-eu-referendum-racial-racism-abuse-hate-crime-reported-latest-leave-immigration-a7104191.html">A wave of racist abuse</a> has swept the UK. Cards reading ‘<a href="http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/26/racist-incidents-feared-to-be-linked-to-brexit-result-reported-in-england-and-wales">No more Polish vermin</a>‘ were posted outside a school in Huntingdon. Two weeks prior a pro-refugee MP Jo Cox was <a href="http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/jo-cox-dead-live-updates-8207676">shot and killed</a> by a member of the fascist group Britain First.</li>
<li>The Independent notes that sober descriptions of Brexit have now been published in <a href="http://indy100.independent.co.uk/article/the-sun-has-also-got-around-to-telling-its-readers-what-brexit-will-mean-and-they-are-not-happy--WySvafrAVZ">the Sun</a> and <a href="http://indy100.independent.co.uk/article/the-mail-has-explained-what-brexit-means-and-its-readers-seem-shocked--Z1772TI4aNW">the Mail</a>.</li>
</ul>
<h1 id="summary">Summary</h1>
<p>Chaos. The two major parties are headless. Scotland is striding towards the door. NI is furious at England. England is furious at itself. Our allies are dumbfounded. We are entering a long period of uncertainty.</p>
<p>We must guard against the rise of fascism in Britain.</p>
Sun, 26 Jun 2016 20:46:33 +0000http://www.toadworld.co.uk/brexit-political-round-up/
http://www.toadworld.co.uk/brexit-political-round-up/brexitpoliticsDid London just catch up to Seattle and Paris?<p>London is less horrible than it was three weeks ago. It’s still crowded. It’s still expensive. It’s still full of people — myself included — who could be nicer on the Tube.</p>
<p>But three weeks ago Cycle Superhighway 2, Cycle Superhighway 3 and Cycle Superhighway 6 were all declared <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_cycle_routes_in_London#Cycle_Superhighways">complete</a>. These next-generation Cycle Superhighways have a physical kerb between cyclists and traffic. They are wide enough to ride two abreast. The three I list above cover approximately eighteen miles of Central and Peripheral London.</p>
<p>TFL has made no obvious announcement of this. It’s not been splashed on the front pages of the Metro or the Evening Standard. The published maps remain <a href="http://content.tfl.gov.uk/cs3-barking-tower-gateway.pdf">egregiously bad</a> compared to <a href="http://www.toadworld.co.uk/cycle-superhighways-in-london/">my Google Maps overlay</a>.</p>
<p>(Most of the credit would be shared between Ken Livingstone, Labour, who recently <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/apr/28/ken-livingstone-suspended-from-labour-after-hitler-remarks">compared Israel to Hitler</a>, and Boris Johnstone, Tory, who recently <a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/05/14/boris-johnson-the-eu-wants-a-superstate-just-as-hitler-did/">compared the EU to Hitler</a>. Perhaps it’s not too surprisingly there’s no-one that wants to carry the publicity ball.)</p>
<p>But those new Cycle Superhighways above meant I cycled 36 miles last week and it was easy. Instead of getting 20 different trains to work in that time I got twelve. Every person on a bike is a person whose armpit is not pressed in your face on the Central line. Last week I barely huffed armpit at all.</p>
<p>What about safety?</p>
<p>Every time I get on a bike I wonder “Over the next year, what are my chances of having an accident?”. The <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Birthday_problem">birthday paradox</a> means little bits of risk add up over time. If I had a 1% chance of a cycling accident each day then there’s a 97% chance — yes, <em>ninety-seven percent chance</em> — of having an accident during a single work year. This isn’t idle numerical noodling — <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cycling_in_London#Statistics">fourteen deaths per year</a> make London-as-was a dangerous place to cycle. Black cabs come right up behind you and rev their engines. Van drivers tell you off for not running yellow lights.</p>
<p>The Cycle Superhighways are as calming as slipping into a bath of warm honey. They’re as calming as taking a deep breath and slipping your head underneath the sucrose surface. You feel safe in the knowledge that your house is empty. Your bathroom door is locked. No-one knows you’re in a warm bath full of honey. No-one is ever going to take this peaceful time from you. I cycled down the damn Thames in the blazing rush-hour sunshine this week with no damn garbage trucks within two metres of me. It was <em>glorious</em>.</p>
<p>It was <em>Paris</em>. It was <em>Seattle</em>. It felt like London woken up after years of abusive drinking, looked in the mirror, and silently started shaving. London is looking blearily in the mirror and is thinking “Showering, that sounds good. My good shirt is clean, too — I’ll wear that today.”. London is quietly planning to walk down to the shops today, just to work the ache out of its muscles. It’s probably going to buy a soda. Maybe it’ll phone Paris — no, text Paris, London’s voice is still shot — and ask if Paris has seen <em>Captain America</em> yet. Maybe they could hang out, sober, later this week.</p>
<p>Keep getting slightly less fucking awful, London. I’m rooting for you.</p>
Sun, 15 May 2016 11:02:26 +0000http://www.toadworld.co.uk/did-london-just-catch-up-to-seattle-and-paris/
http://www.toadworld.co.uk/did-london-just-catch-up-to-seattle-and-paris/boris johnstonecs2cs3CS5cycle superhighwayscyclingken livingstonelondonpersonal