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Tuesday, June 17, 2014

Let North Korea Collapse?

I
seldom read the New York Times and today’s op-ed
about North Korea, that was titled “Let North Korea Collapse,” is precisely one of those reasons.

In
this article, Sue Mi Terry said that the soft containment of North
Korea, as being practiced by its immediate neighbors as well as the
United States, is a “blinkered view because
the long-term benefits of North Korea’s collapse, both strategic
and economic, far outweigh the short-term costs.” She says that
North Korea ought to be made to collapse so that the Korean peninsula
can be reunified.

After
a quick
Google search, I found out that Sue Mi Terry was a senior analyst
at the CIA during the Bush years as well as worked in the National
Security Council, the National Intelligence Council, and the Council
of Foreign Relations. She also holds an MA degree in International
Relations and a Doctor of Philosophy in International Relations from
the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy, Tufts University.

All
of this just goes to prove that being well educated does nothing to
shield oneself from sheer stupidity and further cements the notion
that “Central Intelligence Agency” has got to be one of the most
obnoxious oxymorons is existence.

I don't usually quote Bertrand Russell but he was certainly right about this one.Image Source

Though
she herself admits that the collapse of the regime would lead to a
host of problems, she claims that “the advantages would emerge very
soon.”

It’s
amusing that Terry never bothers to mention just how long “short
term” is or how soon is soon.

Now,
one of the benefits she mentions is although the cost of integrating
North Korea into South Korea would cost about US$2 trillion, some of
the cost could be offset by immediate savings on South Korea’s
defense budget, which amounted to approximately US$33.9
billion in 2013.

Firstly,
let’s assume for the sake of argument that US$2 trillion is all
that it takes. Let’s forget for a moment that whenever government
officials say something will cost so much, it usually costs A LOT
MORE than that. If we do a little simple arithmetic, assuming that
Korea decides to scrap its military altogether and no longer spends
that much money each year on its defense, it would take approximately
SIXTY years to pay for the US$2 trillion bill.

But
of course, even after reunification, Korea will not dismantle its
entire military. Though Korea could possibly make some cuts to its
defense budget if North Korea no longer existed, it will not
dismantle its military.

Furthermore,
the military is not even the most expensive thing on Korea’s
budget. The most expensive items are welfare (₩97.4 trillion),
public administration (₩55.8 trillion), education (₩49.8 trillion),
and the military (₩34.3 trillion). The information can be found
here.

If
anything, incorporating twenty-five million North Koreans would
require Korea to increase its government spending even more, which
would bankrupt the entire economy.

She
also assumes that if the two countries reunite, it could slow down
Korea’s aging population because, as she said, “the population of
North Korea is younger and more fertile.”

There
will certainly be an increase in marriages between North and South
Koreans after reunification. But will it be as easy as she makes it
sound? The country has been split for more than sixty years and new
cultures have developed on both sides of the DMZ. The language has
changed, ideas have changed, and so has the culture. For all intents
and purposes, North and South Koreans are foreigners to each other.

Terry
also assumes that the technological know-how that South Korea
possesses will be able to unlock North Korea’s vast, and relatively
untapped, mineral resources.

That
sounds eerily familiar. It’s most likely because that was a
similar argument that people made before the US invasion of Iraq in
2003.

Before
the invasion began, then Deputy Secretary of Defense Paul
Wolfowitz famously said this
about how the cost of the Iraq War was going to be mitigated by Iraqi
oil:

“The
oil revenue of that country could bring between 50 and 100 billion
dollars over the course of the next two or three years. We’re
dealing with a country that could really finance its own
reconstruction, and relatively soon.”

"These guys were right about everything!" - Said by no one with a brainImage Source

Well,
that was a cock up, wasn’t it? The argument that Iraqi oil will
help to pay to reconstruct Iraq was ridiculous then, and it is just
as ridiculous now to claim that North Korea’s mineral deposits will
boost Korea’s economy.

Another
thing that Terry never bothers to discuss is the North Koreans
themselves – specifically, the military.

The
so-called Korean
People’s Army, or at least the most senior officers, have
gotten fat over the years since the establishment of the songun
(military first) policy in 1994. The military holds immense power
and is able to dictate domestic and international policies. They are
the ones who will be the first to assassinate Kim Jong-un if they
even suspect that he is even considering scrapping North Korea’s
nuclear arsenal.

If
Korea reunifies, presumably under South Korean terms, the Korean
People’s Army will ether be disbanded entirely or at the very least
face significant layoffs. It’s also a safe bet to assume that a significant number of them might also face trial for war crimes and crimes against humanity. Why on earth would those generals, who
have been living high on the hog, voluntarily relinquish their power
and their wealth to return to become a bunch of nobodies or face life imprisonment and/or execution?

North
Korea may not have much but what they do have plenty of is guns.
Although their weaponry is not enough for them to win a war against
the combined might of the United States and the Republic of Korea, they
certainly have enough of it to make the Korean peninsula look a lot
like present-day Syria.

Any
assumption that the North Korean military will not fight tooth and
nail to protect its own interests is the epitome of stupidity.

Yes, it's another Einstein quote. What can I say? The man was REALLY smart.Image Source

I
will concede that I may be suffering from a case of pessimistic-bias,
meaning that I am projecting today’s problems into the future
without taking into consideration possible future solutions. However, if we take a look at what is going on in Syria,
Iraq, Libya, and Egypt these days, countries with political systems
that are similar, though not the same, to North Korea’s, I am just
not very hopeful.

Don’t
get me wrong. I despise North Korea just as much as the next person
and I have written about my utter contempt for them here,
here,
here,
here,
and here.
North Korea is truly a deplorable country and a stain on humanity.

10 comments:

- There would be an attempt to keep N Koreans in N Korea. it would fail, the first time a few refugees flooded Panmunjom and tens of thousands of cheering S Koreans forced the soldiers to step down.

No bi-national citizenship will work for any length of time. No North Korean would tolerate it - and rightly so.

So expect mass floods of people moving south.

- Crime. S Korea will go from relatively crime-free cities to either professional, police-state like cops cracking down on people or crime will explode. Expect theft to be the norm, and break-ins, and fraud on all sides.

- Already a low-trust society, Korea will get nasty. Everywhere.

- Slums. Lots and lots of slums, everywhere. Homeless people.

- gang warfare. It'll explode and the Korean mafia will rival the HK and Vietnamese triads in extensive operations and street warfare.

- Intense, overwhelming government corruption. The worst aspects of NK will survive the fall; already fragile, the honesty and decency of the SK political regime will collapse. Bribery will be not just an unspoken reality, but the norm.

- Concentration of power: Someone will have to take charge. That should scare everyone. Given the Korean cultural tendency to accede to brutal authority or to leader-worship (N Korea; every cult in South Korea, all of them scary; cults of political leaders here), that's not going to be pretty.

- Regression in democracy rather than evolution; it'll be like stepping backwards for at least a whole generation

- Democracy may not be the best form of government for this situation. It may not be efficient.Civil rights may not be convenient. Therefore, a more naturally coping form of government may materialize. Expect it.

- Voting: 50% more voters, all voting unpredictably and chaotically. The entire stalemated political system will collapse, and what's left will become radically polarized.

>>> Expect the potential for mass violence, with extreme political movements taking troubles to the streets.

- Concentration of power in the chaebols: if you think they have economic power now, you haven't seen anything yet. The useless, beleaguered governments will ask the Chaebol families to step in and "bring order and development." This will cement an already monopolistic power club and turn Korea into a labour and worker farm for the personal service of the Chaebols.

- BIG ISSUE: DRUGS. North Korea is a sociological disaster when it comes to drugs. Meth is everywhere, marijuana easier to get than aspirin, and other drugs sold openly in markets. South Korea brutally enforces prohibition and can reasonably maintain it. With North Korea joining, the worst of both will descend on South Korea: Mass drugs everywhere, with their attendant socially disastrous effects, as well as inept, corrupt and savage police persecution, resulting in organized crime that will be utterly off the scale. It'll make Chicago during prohibition look like a Sunday outing for the choir of St James.It will be remorselessly, viciously ugly beyond calculation on all sides. There is no way to overstate this potential disaster. It will rip South Korean society to shreds. SK is utterly unprepared for this.Its cops are useless teenagers; its rules for engagement bad jokes; its security almost nonexistent; training among the worst in the world, because cops are largely unnecessary.

- The law: Korean legal norms are barely modern. Justice is a notion that is bent wholyl out of shape here, and the courts are little better than partisan platforms. it's fragile. Introduce this kind of chaos, and the system will just break.There will be no independent, honest justice in this new Korea.

Anyone who thinks some moderate solution would work hasn't faced off against unleashed Korean nationalism. Those borders will vanish overnight.

Try this:

- Permanent social stratification. We all know Koreans are big on social status, that it rules everything in SK. Imagine: Lack of marriage between SKs and NKs, because NK men will be seen as discardable trash - no SK girl will ever marry one, it would be an unforgivable insult even to suggest it - and prostitution will reign supreme. N Korean women will be working as prostitutes within days of NK's collapse, and SK men will abuse the living tar out of them and SK politicians and women won't care. NKeans will be the new "niggers" of Korea - disposable garbage useful for slave labour and "re-education".

They will be socially untouchable. Refugees are socially ostracized and isolated now - they have almost no chance at normal lives in SK. A whole country of poor, shell-shocked, uneducated or badly educated quasi-criminal poor? Jesus. I can't imagine the social nightmare they'll face.

-Leading to...

Ethnic violence: Expect lots of mass thuggery and discrimination as the NKeans take to hating the SKoreans for their inevitable superior attitudes.

Leading to....

- Retribution against non-racially-pure Koreans and foreigners. Unwelcome will be all of the mixed Koreans who the Northerners will hate, for sure, for both ideological and pragmatic reasons that are understandable. Add in the foreigners, all of whom will live a million times better off than NKoreans, and the attacks and assaults on foreigners will be fierce.

Watch openly racist political parties ascend. Some will be based around SKeans; but they'll draw numbers from NKeans. This will be part of the terrible shakeup of S Korean politics.

In every possible sense, the nice, comfy world of S Korea will be completely shattered. Whatever nation emerges from this unstable mess may not be something we'd admire.

Has it ever been considered that North Korea simply get rid of it's dictator, adopt democracy and remain autonomous? Is there some reason why the fall of the Kims should necessarily lead to reunification? Wouldn't that actually be a better option after 60 years? Not that I think any of these situations are imminent. Am I being really dumb in thinking that perhaps should the Kim government ever be overthrown it would perhaps be a military coup and South Korea need not even get involved? I'm just thinking out loud since obviously I'm no expert of course.

Even if the Kim dynasty were to be overthrown, it is quite unlikely that a democracy would replace it.

To be honest, what would happen after a North Korean collapse is anyone's guess. They could be replaced by someone else in the inner political circle. Though not as legitimate as the Kims, well, that was what they said about Raoul Castro - that he doesn't have his brother's charisma. He seems to be doing fine in his island. Or a new leader might be handpicked by the Chinese government. Perhaps Kim Jong-un's older half-brother, Kim Jong-nam? Or perhaps even someone else. Or, as you said, it might be a military coup, thus turning North Korea into another Myanmar, except with nuclear weapons.

But Sue Mi Terry was assuming that the North Korean government collapses and all other political actors in North Korea decide to just call it a day and go home; allowing South Korea to just waltz in and take things over, which is simply ridiculous.

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About Me

My name is John Lee and I am currently the editor and writer behind the independently-run blog, “The Korean Foreigner.”

Recently, I have also begun to work as a freelance copy editor for Freedom Factory. Here, with permission from Freedom Factory, I shall post English translations of Freedom Factory’s weekly newsletter “Freedom Voice.”