GSW Addiction

Tuesday, May 22, 2012

Nicholson remains one of the more intriguing prospects in
the late 1st round. The St Bonaventure product put up impressive
numbers, concluding the season on a strong note against a clearly superior
team, on the offensive end at least. Nicholson is 6’9 225-235, and by all
accounts has a large wingspan, although unverified to date. His senior year was
a solid improvement from his junior year, as he improved his PPS, 3pt shooting,
rebounding, and shot blocking. His FTA took a noticeable dip as his role was
reduced, but still solid for a #1 option in college.

Nicholson’s primary strengths come from his versatility. He
has a solid back to the basket game, can face up defenders on the dribble, pull
up jumper, or set shot, and has pretty good timing to be a shot blocker. His
late season surge in shooting is likely not a fluke, as his fundamentals and
point of release look to be extremely consistent at this stage. In fact, the
Bonnies were running screen plays for Nicholson against FSU, much like teams
would run screen plays for sharpshooting SGs and SFs in the pros. His shot
blocking and timing, while not elite, is solid for an NBA PF. His block numbers
are pretty gaudy until you consider the poor defense of his team, allowing more
block chances, and the competition level. Nicholson corralled most of his
blocks against anonymous college basketball teams.

On the downside, Nicholson’s defensive instincts thus far
are not very good. When there’s traffic on offense or on defense, he gets lost
quite easily. On defense, he’ll instinctively look to reset to his man,
regardless of what’s happening around him. Offensively, he took the ball into
traffic way too much and God help him if there’s a double-team: he won’t see it
coming. His rebounding, while improved from the past season, is still only
average for what you’d expect from someone his size. His passing is abysmal and
unnatural at this stage, which is a big red flag considering his primary
positive note is his scoring.

Overall, we’re looking at a player who’s #s don’t really
reflect the impact he had on his team.Think we’re looking at a guy who’s going to struggle to catch on in the
NBA after putting up some hollow numbers initially. He has to get a better feel
for the game and working in a 5 on 5 situation with talented players, or else
the game will entirely pass him by.

Friday, May 11, 2012

Inspired by Reggie Williams, Festus Ezeli is proving that a
neck is a luxury, not a necessity, to be in the NBA. He’s the best C from
Vanderbilt since Andrew Ogilvy. But unlike Ogilvy, Festus actually projects to
be a quality NBA center. Ezeli is 6’11, 255 lbs with a huge wingspan, which is
a big part of his value. After being a backup his 1st two seasons,
Ezeli eventually took the starting role his junior year, statistically his best
season. His senior year, however, shows a decline across the board. His PPG,
FG%, FTA, FT%, rebounding, steals, and blocks all went down, while his TOs and
fouls went up.

Ezeli is a very easy guy to figure out. Because of his
weight and enormous wingspan, he should be a positive impact defender upon
arriving to the NBA. He has enough quickness and strength to hold his own
against NBA C’s. He’s a one-jump shot blocker, but the upside there is that he’s
got excellent timing. His footwork seems
to be a work in progress on both ends of the court, as he usually relied on
being faster and stronger than his competition in college. His offensive game
is either beating the other guy up for good position to finish (being set up by
teammates) and on offensive rebound putbacks. Has shown potential for getting
his shot off, but teams will not look to him for buckets on a regular basis.

Uncle Festus has quite a few glaring weaknesses as well. Let’s
start with his hands, which are almost Udoh-like in quality. At times you have
to wonder if the ball is red-hot, considering how much Ezeli bobbles it. His
reaction time is reported to be slow by several draft sites, and it’s hard to
argue against that. 6 boards in 23 minutes speaks volumes. He seems to get all
the boards in his area, but doesn’t have the motor to get boards that require
work. While his shot blocking is impressive, it comes at a price: Ezeli fouls a
ton and often times takes himself out of the rebounding equation to try and get
a block. Was suspended 6 games for taking improper gifts from alumni, and also
has had 2 injuries centered around his right knee in college.

Close, but not 'Uncle' Festus Ezeli

All in all, Ezeli looks to be a solid backup 5 in the
Association. Should never expect him to do much offensively, and he has the tools
to become a quality defender under the right tutelage. His shaky hands and penchant
for over-pursuing blocks really limit his ceiling, but everything else points
to him being a rotational big in the NBA for a long time.

Thursday, May 10, 2012

One of the biggest stories of the NCAA tournament was the 2nd
academic suspension of Fab Melo by Syracuse.
Melo was the anchor to one of the best defenses in college basketball,
and it showed. Syracuse was 29-1 with
Melo on the team, and 5-2 without him. Admittedly, the 7 games sans-Melo had a
higher quality of opponents on the average, but not by much. The difference was
enormous:

Attn: Syracuse students. Do not copy answers off this man.

Oppg with Melo: 60.3

Oppg without Melo: 62.6

Ofg% with Melo: 38.2%

Ofg% without Melo: 39.6%

O3pt% with Melo: 29.9%

O3pt% without Melo: 38.1%

RebDef with Melo: +1.1

RebDef without Melo: -6.7

What does that all mean? Clearly Melo was a very important
part of that team, but how much? Teams were literally afraid to penetrate when
Melo was in the game, and that caused more perimeter ball movement, and less
drive-and-kick created shots. With teams not having to focus on Melo’s
rebounding, they were free to grab more loose balls from the rest of Syracuse’s
average rebounders. To boot, Cuse’s
offense suffered without Melo. Because teams were taking less perimeter shots
per game with him out, it put a crimp in the Orange’s fast breaks, leading to
less efficient shots, and more 3pta per game.

What does Melo bring to the table? Scary shot blocking. In
30 games, he blocked 4 shots or more 11 times. He got to double digit blocks
(1) as many times as he got to double digit rebounds (1), and had as many or
more blocks than rebounds 7 times. His rim protection was top notch, although
it was in a zone. Melo clocks in at 7’0,
255, with an enormous wingspan. His defensive footwork is criminally
underrated, as he’s frequently labeled ‘just a shot blocker’. His rebounding is criticized, but when you’re
forcing teams to take primarily perimeter shots, rebounds tend to be longer and
favor the wings in the college game. Great hands for a big. Don’t sleep on Melo’s
budding offensive game. He can knock down a mid-range jumper or two and has a
solid skillset to build off of.

Melo doesn’t come without risks though. He is coming off 2
academic suspensions in one season. His weight has fluctuated greatly since
coming to Cuse, although he did seem to be in the best shape of his life in his
sophomore season. His post game as-is, is very mechanical and easy to predict.
Got away with that in college, but in the NBA, 7’ guys will be able to bother
him more. Rumors of a questionable motor dogged him his freshman year, and were
silenced in year 2, but the question will always remain.

Overall, Melo has the skillset to be an impact defender at
the C position in the NBA. He’s played on one of the best college teams, one of
the most demanding defensive coaches in college, and earned his way from a 5
minute afterthought to a 25 minute defensive force. The fact this guy isn’t a
guaranteed top 15 selection is criminal, and there will be many teams that
regret passing on him.

Wednesday, May 9, 2012

Had to dig deep to find ample footage on Tony Wroten. Washington wasn’t even good enough to get in
the big tourney, which you’d think would give Wroten a chance to shine in the
NIT. Not so much. In fact, his NIT experience highlighted his strengths and
glaring weaknesses dramatically. So dramatically, that he could be available at
the end of the 1st round in the 2012 NBA Draft. For a guy with his
physical stature, athleticism, and passing abilities, that’s pretty unusual.

Careful ladies, Tony Wroten is a screamer.

Let’s start off with his strengths. Wroten is 6’5, 200-205 lbs. He has
excellent handles and head fakes, seems to get to the rim whenever he wanted to
in college. He has a quick first step, which, along with his wide body for a
primary ball-handler, allowed him to wall off perimeter defenders and get by
them with ease. He invites contact, as seen by his 7.5 FTA, and finishes well
in the paint, contact and all. His rebounding is a plus at either guard
position, and he has the ability and potential to be a great NBA defender. He
takes some risks to get steals and also challenges more layups and inside shots
than you’d expect from a guard. Will surprise you every once in a while with a
very athletic block. His passing ability on fast breaks is excellent, but his
creating abilities in the halfcourt are still very much a work in progress.
He’s very aware for a young guard, knows when a dunk or layup is the right
move. Pretty solid at moving without the ball in the paint, but will have
trouble getting away with that at the next level.

If you’ve seen him play at all, his weaknesses are just all too obvious.
Wroten’s lack of a jump shot of any sort really limits his potential right
now. His form and release seem awkward,
and aren’t very consistent. At least he is smart and aware enough not to try
many jumpshots. Despite his quickness and strength, does not seem to have a
great, explosive leap. He’ll likely have trouble with quality shot blockers in
the NBA, as he likes to glide to the rim from several feet out. If you can
neutralize his penetration, he’s almost completely harmless offensively. He’s
not a NBA PG, he’s a SG that can drive and create at times. Tends to get caught
in the air a lot, usually resulting in turnovers or broken plays. Defensively,
can succumb to laziness, and tends to make exaggerated swipes when reaching-in,
an easy foul call in the NBA. Poor FT
shooter for a guy who gets there as much as Wroten does. He’s very much a rhythm player, which can work for
or against a team.

Overall, you have a guy who’s getting a stock boost because
pundits are trying to pass him off as a part time PG because he doesn’t have
the scoring chops a legitimate SG would have. He has solid intangibles, but his
overstated athleticism and size doesn’t really apply if he’s playing at SG.
Could carve out a career as a successful 2nd-string guard, or
potentially a defensive stopper/starting SG type. But until that jumper is
fixed, he’s extremely limited as a player. Projects to be a 10-15 minute change
of pace guard. Bump that to 15-20 minutes if he’s playing on a team that loves
to use the fast break.