Politics Counts: A Last Look at ‘Patchwork’ Community Polls

Dante Chinni is the writer of Politics Counts , which typically runs every Friday. Mr. Chinni is the editor of Patchwork Nation, which examines different types of communities across the U.S.

As we have often noted in our Patchwork Nation pieces, when you look at national elections at the county level, it’s not usually about the votes in different types of communities swinging from one party to the other, it’s about changes in margins of support. As Election Day 2012 arrives that appears to be as true as ever.

A Patchwork Nation analysis of two new sets of survey data, coming in just before the polls open, finds complete agreement about which presidential candidate is going to win in each of our 12 county/community types. The differences in the numbers, from the Pew Research Center and the Wall Street Journal/NBC poll, are in the margins. Some of those differences are big, but the end result of both seems to be the same, an edge to President Barack Obama.

To be clear the numbers are not the same. Mr. Obama seems to be in better shape with the Pew figures – nationally he leads in that poll by 3 points and that lead manifests itself in the crucial Monied Burbs in their data. And Mr. Romney seems to be in spitting distance of winning in the WSJ/NBC numbers – thanks to a tighter race in the Burbs and better margins in some key communities.

But if the margins that either poll has found in the Patchwork Nation types hold, Mr. Obama has the advantage as the Election Day machinery kicks into gear.

The Pew Patchwork Scenario

The Pew numbers, an analysis of a survey of 2,700 likely voters released on Sunday, show a big shift toward the president in the wealthy suburban Monied Burbs, 54% – 42%. That’s a 12-point lead for Mr. Obama in these 286 counties that hold about 70 million people. The margin is even better than Mr. Obama’s 10-point margin four years ago and if it is correct, Mr. Romney’s path to victory becomes almost impossibly steep.

To overcome a 12-point gap in the Burbs, Mr. Romney would need to win by enormous margins in the Patchwork Nation county types that favor him – especially the most populous ones, the small-town Service Worker Centers, the more exurban Boom Towns and the aging Emptying Nests.

He’s doing well in those counties in this poll – even in the Emptying Nests, which is a turnaround for him – winning them by between 5 and 10 points. But it’s not enough to overcome Mr. Obama’s Monied Burb edge along with the expected Democratic advantage in the big city Industrial Metropolis counties and the collegiate Campus and Career counties – 33 points and 17 points respectively.

In fact, the reason Mr. Romney is even close in this poll are the numbers out of the heavily Hispanic Immigration Nation counties. He leads there 52% – 38%. But that’s a huge GOP margin to come from those places, especially considering the tensions between the Republican Party and Hispanic voters in recent elections. It may be a result of the specific sample. A GOP lead there is not surprising. A GOP lead of that size in 2012 is.

The WSJ/NBC Patchwork Scenario

The view through the prism of the Wall Street Journal/NBC poll, a survey of 2,200 likely voters in October and November, shows a more closely divided electorate. But Mr. Obama holds an edge thanks in part to support in the Burbs.

The WSJ/NBC numbers show Mr. Obama with a 5-point lead in Monied Burbs – 50% to 45% for Mr. Romney. That edge is not massive, but it’s bigger than Vice President Al Gore’s win in the Burbs in 2000 or Sen. John Kerry’s in 2004. And combined with Mr. Obama’s big leads in the Industrial Metropolis and Campus and Careers counties, it’s enough to give the democrat a slight edge overall.

Mr. Romney is doing well in some important places for him in this poll, like the Emptying Nests, and very well in some others like, the Service Worker Center and Evangelical Epicenter counties, where he has run up double-digit leads. But he’s hurt by the numbers in couple of key areas.

Mr. Romney’s seven-point lead in the Boom Towns is nowhere near the huge 17-point margin George W. Bush ran up in those counties in his winning 2004 campaign. And similarly Mr. Romney’s three-point margin in Immigration Nation, is holding him back.

The Differences and Similarities

There are some real differences in these two polls, but they are in some ways telling a similar story. The 2012 election is almost certain to closer than 2008 because, as many polls have noted, Mr. Obama is getting less support from white voters.

The Pew survey seems to see that loss in the Evangelical Epicenters, Service Worker Centers and even in Immigration Nation. (There are actually more whites than Hispanics in Immigration Nation, those places just tend to hold large Hispanic populations compared to the national average.) But it also sees Mr. Obama holding onto his lead in largely white the Monied Burbs and doing fairly well in the Boom Towns, which are also mostly white.

The breakdown it sees, in other words, is one that falls along income lines. Mr. Obama seems to do better in wealthier white communities.

The Wall Street Journal/NBC survey seems to show more of a straight break along racial lines, with Mr. Obama losing much of the advantage he had in the Monied Burbs four years ago. But the WSJ/NBC poll also shows a clear income divide on race, note the huge lead for Mr. Romney in the Service Worker counties.

It’s a question of degree. In both polls white voters living in less-wealthy places are more inclined to back Mr. Romney. It’s about where one draws the line for wealth.

Much has been made of how turnout will play a big role in the outcome of 2012. The WSJ/NBC numbers suggest that’s true and Tuesday could be a long night for those who want to see a winner. If the Pew numbers are correct turnout may matter less and the night may be over sooner.

If you want an idea of which way the night is going to go keep an eye on Virginia. It’s polls close at 7 pm and it is full of those Monied Burbs and Boom Towns.

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