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Rig Count Falls As US Oil Production Hits All-Time High

The the number of active oil and gas rigs fell in the United States this week according to Baker Hughes, despite record-breaking production for the week ending February 15.

The total number of active oil and gas drilling rigs fell by 4 rigs­, according to the report, with the number of active oil rigs falling by 4 to reach 853 and the number of gas rigs holding fast at 194.

The oil and gas rig count is now 69 up from this time last year, 54 of which is in oil rigs.

Oil prices were trading up earlier on Friday on lowered OPEC production and hopes that the relentless trade spat between China and the United States might drawing to a close. The strong bearish signal came from the United States on Thursday, with the Energy Information Administration showing that production reached 12 million barrels per day for the week ending February 15—months ahead of what the EIA originally had thought, and 100,000 barrels per day over production from the previous week.

Despite the onslaught of US oil production, prices held, and at 12:21pm, WTI was trading up 0.81% (+$0.46) at $57.42, while Brent was trading up 0.30% (+$0.20) at $67.39—an increase for both benchmarks week on week as well.

Canada’s oil and gas rigs saw an even bigger decrease in the number rigs this week. Canada’s total oil and gas rig count fell by 12 rigs and is now 212, which is 94 fewer rigs than this time last year.

By 1:06pm EDT, WTI was trading up 0.65% (+$0.37) at $57.33 on the day. Brent crude was trading up 0.12% (+$0.08) at $67.27 per barrel, with both benchmarks trading up significantly week on week.

Actually the short term outlook from EIA has shows that they expect the US production in January to average 12mbpd which suggests that their weekly estimates are actually a little bit low. Although it is impossible to confirm that at this stage.

EIA also notes that they expect the US to production to average 12.4mbpd for the year 2019 and 13.2mbpd for 2020. Now we are nearly 2 months into the year and US production has only risen around 100kpbd year to date and the rig count most certainly is not skyrocketing.
What I mean is that in order to average something you need to be below and over the given number, and if at current pace it takes 1.5month to increase US production by 100 000bpd then it would suggest that the current pace is pretty much spot on their estimates not months ahead as in the article was written.

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