Measuring up: A look back at the region’s snowiest winters

Forecasting the weather months in advance is tough business, but looking back can provide clues. WTOP examines the snowiest and least-snowy winters recorded in the D.C. area, and offers an explanation of some of the variables that determine whether the area gets buried or gets off easy.

Editor’s note: Some of the snowfall records herein were tied or broken by the Blizzard of 2016 which occurred after this article was published.

WASHINGTON — Twenty-eight years ago, an unexpected, early-season snowstorm brought nearly a foot-and-a-half of heavy snow to parts of Washington.

The Veterans Day snowstorm of 1987 turned out to be the city’s biggest November snowfall on record and also preceded an otherwise run-of-the-mill winter.

The unprecedented early-season winter storm, as impactful as it was, did not foreshadow the coming of a brutal winter. In February of that winter — typically D.C.’s snowiest month — virtually no snow fell.

Forecasting the weather months in advance is tough business and, for some, a slippery slope.

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There is no telltale sign in autumn that signals a fair or ferocious winter to come. As various weather outlets craft their own predictions for what Old Man Winter will bring, each includes fair-warning on the limitations of long-range weather forecasting.

You can read more about the National Weather Service’s outlook here. StormTeam 4’s Winter Weather Outlook is available here.

The jury is still out on how harsh the coming winter will be to Washington but signs point to a wet, mild start. The past couple of winters have been long, with early- and late-season snowfall leading to higher than average seasonal totals.

Records from the National Weather Service show that for every snowy winter, the region sees two or three “easier” years. Records date back to 1884 for Washington, D.C., 1892 for Baltimore and 1962 for Dulles International Airport.

Record 3-day Totals:

Average Annual Snowfall

DCA – 15.4 inches
IAD – 20.1 inches
BWI – 22 inches

Rarely, in fact, does a winter’s worth of snow add up to the average amount. Records show that some winters were awash with rain while others saw coastal storms that delivered a year’s worth of snow in a matter of days. During the record-breaking “Snowmaggedon” winter, the region saw two such storms and many other significant snowfalls.

It is these extremes that factor into the region’s average annual snowfall.

Just four years ago, a slump in snowfall made for one of the top snowless winters on record. A mere 2 to 4 inches of snow fell by spring of 2012. The winter was also mild with temperatures about 5 degrees above average.

Snow was also scarce during the El Nino winter of 1997-1998. The abnormally warm expanse of water in the eastern Pacific Ocean is thought to have contributed to the dearth of snow across the East.

An El Nino event is expected to remain intact through this coming winter and will likely influence storms and precipitation in the Mid-Atlantic region.

In a typical year, most of Washington’s snowfall occurs in late January and early February. The city averages 5.6 inches of snow in January and 5.7 inches in February.

The earliest measurable snowfall occurred on Oct. 10, 1979 when 0.3 inches to 1.3 inches of snow fell across the region. Measurable snow has fallen as late as mid- to late-April.

The frequency of snowfall varies and depends on the jet stream and the path that storms take as they cross the Mid-Atlantic. Many winters feature stormy periods when a succession of storms deliver the bulk of the season’s snowfall. The charts below list each of these events over the past five years.

It only takes one big storm to make a winter memorable. The top ten snow events for all three major area airports are listed below. The following snow totals were observed over three-day periods. In most cases, these totals reflect single-storm totals. In a few cases, a large storm was followed by a lighter snowfall.