Patriots' plan is working ... sort of

Just as the poor defensive numbers of 2007-12 were related to the offensive fireworks, there's also a correlation between this year's offensive struggles and the defensive resurgence.

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southcoasttoday.com

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Posted Oct. 9, 2013 at 12:25 AM
Updated Oct 10, 2013 at 4:10 PM

Posted Oct. 9, 2013 at 12:25 AM
Updated Oct 10, 2013 at 4:10 PM

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I spent most of the offseason telling all of my various football friends that I thought the Patriots were undergoing a serious personality shift; they were going to rely on running the ball and defense in hopes that their postseason struggles would become a thing of the past.And I was right. Yay, me.

And yet, I can't imagine that what we've seen thus far represents "the plan" for Bill Belichick and the boys.

There's no question in my mind that Belichick's game plans are the best in the business when it comes to the most important number in the business: wins. Just as the poor defensive numbers of 2007-12 were related to the offensive fireworks, there's also a correlation between this year's offensive struggles and the defensive resurgence that has come along.

In other words, Belichick assesses his team and the opponent from top to bottom and determines what gives him the best chance to win. From 2007-12, that was to put points up by the bushelful. This year, it's to play some solid defense and take fewer risks while limiting mistakes on offense.

This theory goes a far way toward understanding Tom Brady's struggles thus far; he's been charged with avoiding the big mistake, but his receivers appear to be putting him in position to do just that. As a result, his numbers are way down — but his interceptions (three in 196 attempts) are still exceptionally low.

This helps explain the 4-1 record, but it's still a shock to the system to see the offense look this way.

Yet, if you had emerged from a six-year coma on September 1, nothing about this season would be a major surprise — this is the natural successor to a 2006 season that featured strong defense, inconsistent offense and shaky skill players around Brady (87.9 passer rating).

It's as if the Wes Welker Era never existed.

But there are also some common threads. Special teams, as always, are strong — the Patriots are starting their average drive at the 31.4; their opponents at the 22.3. They commit fewer penalties, on both sides of the ball, then their opponents. They always convert yards to points (and vice versa) at a far better rate than the league average. And they consistently win the turnover battle (in the top 10 every year but 2005 and 2008).

The hope is that, when Rob Gronkowski comes back (reportedly this weekend) and the rookie wideouts begin making real strides, this team will have it all — a balanced, effective, cautious offense, and a defense capable of winning games all by their lonesome.

In the end, it probably does come down to just how Belichick described it Monday: "We just need to need to keep working harder and correct some of the mistakes that we had and improve our execution."

That's not sexy, but neither is this team ... and neither were the ones that won three Super Bowls.

There are a few things that need to go right for this team to be in real contention come January. One is the continued health of the secondary, where all five guys have been in there all year and the results have been obvious. Second is the return to health of Rob Gronkowski, who probably represents a touchdown difference for this team as currently constituted.

But third, the Patriots need to do something about the defensive tackle position.

On Sunday, the Patriots used a lot more Brandon Spikes (double his normal snaps), partially because the Bengals had two tight ends on the field most of the game, and partially because he was needed to provide bulk. Joe Vellano got pushed around all day by the Bengals' physical front, and it says something about practice squadders Marcus Forston and A.J. Francis that they have yet to be activated.

A trade should certainly be on the front burner, but there are only a couple of teams out there that are out of it at this point of the season. Even the Giants — who have an 0-5 record, and expiring contract DT Linval Joseph on the roster — are only two games out of the NFC East lead.

There aren't many options on the free-agent ranks, and you have to assume that the 31 practice squads aren't exactly stocked with guys who can step in and stop the run right away.

One intriguing name is the Vikings' perennial Pro Bowler Kevin Williams — Minnesota isn't out of it, but they're pretty close to dead in a hyper-competitive NFC North. Considering their lack of a QB, another loss or two in Minnesota might be enough to get them to pull the trigger.

While Williams isn't the big body Wilfork is, he's a solid, every-down defensive tackle with years of experience in a 4-3. His contract is up at the end of the season, and he could probably be gotten for a mid-round pick. If the Patriots need to go a bit off of their value chart in the process, so be it — there are enough young guys on this team as it is.

The trade deadline is Oct. 29.

Pro Football Focus has Tom Brady rated 24th in their quarterback queue based on their film breakdown; the league's passer-rating formula has him 22nd. ... Chandler Jones is certainly making more of an impact this year — he's averaging five pressures a week, about double his output as a rookie, and he's played all but five snaps. Speaking of snaps, only Devin McCourty has been on the field for every defensive play, and is definitely on a Pro Bowl track. ... The Patriots were decent at batting down passes at the line of scrimmage last year (eight), but have yet to get their collective paws on a single one this year. ... The defense has only been whistled for 12 penalties in five games. ... The name-calling by fans about Danny Amendola is embarrassing. He's playing with a groin muscle ripped off the bone and people are questioning his toughness? Give me a break. ... After anointing the Dolphins as the team to watch in the AFC East, they promptly lost two in a row. Meanwhile, Rex Ryan is reminding everyone that for all his flaws as a public figure, he's a hell of a football coach. The Jets have already won as many games as some people thought they would all year long. ... Looking ahead to the Saints game Sunday, New Orleans' defensive turnaround this year is linked to a breakout season by third-year left defensive end Cameron Jordan. He was good last year, but he's been unblockable this year — how the Patriots tackles deal with Jordan will be key.