I have to be honest.
A couple years ago I started getting really jaded and cynical about the
music business. I started to really buy
into all the doom and gloom about the decline of the music business that is so prevalent
amongst many musicians I know. Although
I wouldn’t admit it to that many people, I started to feel like I had chosen
the wrong profession. It started to feel
like I had made a commitment to a path that was simply too treacherous and too
uncertain. I started to think that maybe
I should admit defeat and go look for a “real job”.

Ultimately I never gave into those feelings. Not necessarily because I felt like those
feelings were wrong at the time, but because I couldn’t really find anything
else to replace my passion for making and performing music. I never considered giving up music to go sell
insurance or something like that. But I
started to think maybe I had other latent passions that I simply hadn’t allowed
to express themselves, that would be more lucrative. So during this time I started doing some soul
searching and gave a lot of time thinking about what else I would do if music
didn’t play as big of a role in my life.
What did I find? Nothing
really. I mean sure I have other
interests. I like to read. I like to
surf. I like to swim and play tennis. I
like to drink wine. However I didn’t
like any of these things enough to pursue them professionally (although being a
professional wine taster would probably be a pretty good gig). The long and the short of it is, I don’t have
anything else in my life that I’m as passionate about as music. I’ve looked for it and it’s just not there.

So, I kept going.
I kept writing songs, recording them, playing gigs and doing my thing.
This period of uncertainty eventually passed and I started to feel not just
sure of myself and my path again, but I started to feel something I hadn’t felt
in a long time about the music business, optimistic.

I have to be honest, most of these feelings aren't really
based on data or facts. I have little
evidence to point you to that my optimism about the music business is
warranted. Sure, I’ve done videos where
I point to statistics that support my assertion that the music business is
still, in many ways, thriving, and at the very least not dying. (See http://youtu.be/w7Dz9HrypEc
) But the feeling I’m talking about is
more of an intuition that the music business is going to keep getting better in
the coming years.

I realize that I can’t really make a case based on
intuition alone, so I’ll try and provide some tangible things to think about as
to why I think the music business is headed in a positive direction.

Here
are few….

Youtube
-
To be honest, I’m far from being an expert on youtube. But if anyone makes media and isn’t excited
about the potential that youtube and sites like it represent, in my opinion you’re
not quite fully realizing the potential that this new medium offers. I have a relatively small youtube channel for
my website and my music and I get just several thousand views a month. I’m a small player compared to other
youtubers, some of which are racking up millions a views a month. But even my
relatively small numbers make a big impact on my business and my ability to get
my message out and promote myself. If you
think about what youtube is, which is essentially a TV channel that anyone can create
programming for and potentially get paid for, it’s hard not to be excited.

Of course, doing well on Youtube takes time and
dedication like anything else. So
what?! We all now have at our fingertips
a global channel to spread our art, media and content around the world to
potentially millions of people. And it’s free!

The
internet, Spotify, etc… - I realize that there is a lot of pessimism
about streaming music and in many ways those feelings are warranted. However, most of this negativity is based on
the current payouts for these services, which for most of us are pretty
dismal. The thing to keep in mind
though, is that the music business and services like spotify are dynamic. It’s changing. The music business is not going to look the
same in five, ten and twenty years. It’s
going to keep transforming and I think for the better.

Why? I think we’re
in a very new phase of the music business that will keep improving over the
next couple decades. We are in a new ground floor. Sites like Spotify are still relatively new
and as they grow their user base, they’ll increase revenue and increase their payouts. I also think that sites like Spotify will
continue to modify and improve their business model in order to generate more
revenue for themselves and the artists they work with. ( I created a recent video about Taylor Swift
and Spotify recently where I break down my thoughts on their service as it
stands, check it out here: http://youtu.be/EfhW3aMTJQM
)

A very valid concern is that if your music is on sites
like Spotify that there is little incentive for people to buy your music, if
they can simply listen to it on demand online.
This is a legitimate concern for musicians but I think this issue will
be addressed in the near future. There
is already talk about moving away from completely free models of unlimited
streaming. (See http://finance.yahoo.com/news/era-of-free-digital-music-wanes-160154279.html
)

Decline
In Recording Costs – The other great change that happened over
the last decade or so is that recording costs have dropped dramatically. Although I still think you need to have some professional
help in terms of producing music for things like licensing, recording costs in
general are much more affordable than they were 10 or 20 years ago. Now if you have some songs and want to record
them and get them out there, it’s within reach.
Recording your music professionally isn’t something that you have to
take out a second mortgage to accomplish.
If you have a dream and a couple thousand dollars you can, at the very
least, throw your hat in the ring.

Think
about it, for basically the first time in history,
ever, recording music and distributing it around the world is something that is
attainable to almost anyone, certainly to anyone in “developed” countries. I have artists send me music from literally
all over the world. I get submissions from places like Uganda, Argentina,
Nicaragua, Guatemala, Colombia, Pakistan, India and on and on. Of course, creating music and creating a
successful career in music are two very different things, but never has it been
easier to at least try.

Don’t mistake my optimism for naivety, I realize it’s not
easy. But has pursuing a career in music
ever been easy? I don’t think so. It’s
always been a path reserved for dreamers, non conformists and the like. But now, if you have a dream AND are very
ambitious you have channels that are easily accessible to put out into the world
what it is you do. What happens after
you put your art and music out into the world is out of your hands. The public ultimately decides what makes it
and what doesn’t. But there are no longer excuses for not trying.