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Media Inquires

So Who Will Win the 42nd Federal Election?

SOME CONJECTURES ON WHAT IS SHAPING UP TO BE A HISTORICAL ELECTIONCommentary by Frank Graves

[Ottawa – October 12, 2015] Not only is this one of the longest campaigns in Canadian political history, it may turn out to also be one of the most historically significant. Only two per cent of Canadians think this election is less important than previous elections; 75 per cent think it is more important. Voters tell us they are unusually emotionally engaged and that they see this election having huge stakes. The vast majority of Canadians think both the country and their lives will not be the same after this election. All in all, we have tracked a very dramatic lean among the Canadian public, who see this election as a historically significant choice for the country – and which may well be reflected in the huge advance turnout.

So why is this election so important? We need look no further than to the realm of values to see why it has assumed such momentous stakes. For an election that started out as all ‘about the economy stupid’ it has become ‘all about the niqab.’ But the debate about the niqab may be transforming into a broader debate about values. What kind of country do we want to hand off to the next generations? How do we want to be seen by the external world? What constitutes our basic sense of right and wrong, good and bad? It is not surprising that these kinds of fundamental normative questions result in an emotionally charged electorate and especially so against the backdrop of ‘two Canadas’ that are increasingly incommensurable at the level of basic values. The critical fault lines are generational and class driven. Older, less well educated and dare we say ‘old stock’ Canada have very different value preferences than younger and university educated Canada.

Many would consider the shift to a focus on culture, race, and identity to be a terrible distraction from what the Canadian public continues to identify as much more critical issues; the economy, the healthcare system and negotiating a path to a post carbon economy. Some would also decry the focus on the niqab and related culture war issues as an expression of reckless political adventurism, blind to the corrosive impact this may have on societal well-being in the future. While these may well be compelling critiques, the initial debate appears to have triggered a much broader and important contest for the future based on fundamental values choice. This is undoubtedly why our respondents are signalling that they see this as such a historically important election which is so engaging.

We would argue that the focus on these issues, which emerged following the media focus on the Syrian refugee crisis – elevated the Conservative Party from a party losing a race on the economy, to a party squarely in contention to win. What may not have been as obvious – or even intended – is that that this debate about values has not only increased engagement amid the growing Conservative base, it may also have awoken the slumbering progressive majority.

Trying to assess who will win this values struggle is highly uncertain and why we can offer no clear answer yet as to who will win the next election. The level of engagement of the Conservative constituency really isn’t in doubt. The critical question is whether the growing engagement of the center-left constituencies will translate into actual voter behaviour (turnout and choice). At this stage, we can only hazard a guess that this heightened level of engagement will be reflected in voter behaviour; but at this stage, it simply is not clear.

We do note that Stephen Harper’s surprising victory in 2011 was rooted in his huge success with the senior cohort. It is important to note that there are even more seniors this time out and contrary to some claims that the Liberals and Conservatives are equally matched with this cohort, we think that is simply wrong. The Conservatives have a huge and stable lead with seniors at this time.

While we cannot clearly see the outcome of this protracted and increasingly acrimonious campaign, we do see some of the forces shaping it to date and the key issues to watch in the coming days. We are guessing by mid-week, the post-turkey discussions will have coalesced to provide greater clarity. We do predict that there will be far more talk about cultural issues than about the economy, something that was frankly unforeseeable a month ago.

Apart from the shift to a debate about identity and culture, what other forces are clear at this stage? The Liberals have definitely made significant progress and now are the clear alternative for the forces of electoral change. The NDP have been clearly in decline and if they don’t show signs of life by midweek they will see their fortunes greatly diminished in the coming parliament. Ironically, they may well have considerably greater power than they did in the last parliament where they had lots of seats but almost no real power against the Harper majority. We also note that the possibility of another Harper majority is greeted with near apoplexy in our internal polling of the two thirds of the electorate that are seeking change.

Also notable is that supporters for the each of the center-left options say they would be more likely to vote for their current progressive choice if they were assured that a coalition would be created if Stephen Harper were to win the most seats. These issues may well become moot if the Liberals do break away but so far we see a pretty even deadlock. Moreover, while the public tell us they see either a Liberal or Conservative minority as the equiprobable outcome of the election, we would not discount the Conservatives still securing a majority. This is by no means the most likely outcome, but the Conservatives are in the same range today as they were in our late polling during the 2011 campaign – and we all know how that played out.

Having set the stage for assessing what will shape the final outcome of this election, let’s conclude with some of the polling challenges. There has been some controversy about what the current voter intention outlook is and whether this is breaking. We don’t see any break at this time. We do see some modest differences in our live interviewer and IVR results with the Liberals faring better with live interviewer and the Conservatives doing better with the robot. Is this a reflection of the ‘shy Tory’ effect in presence of a live interviewer? That is unclear but we do know that our IVR methods which underestimated Conservative support in 2011 and we are skeptical that they are overestimating them this time out.

There has also been some buzz about what is really going on in Quebec. Regardless of whether one weights Quebec internally or with national demographics (we don’t see any significant differences either way) we see four important developments in Quebec. The NDP have declined and both the Conservative and Liberal Parties have risen into what is now a pretty stable three way tie. We also find that Quebecers are far less engaged in this election than other Canadians. The tied race is highly segmented regionally with the Conservatives doing much better outside of the Montreal area and Western Quebec. We also see the Bloc Québécois flagging and unlikely to be much of a force on the 19th. Quebec has turned into a very interesting and important race given these shifts and the fact that the Conservatives can do quite well there may offset what appear to be imminent losses to the Liberals in Ontario.

The election outcome will hinge on who is most engaged around the values issues. The higher the levels of overall engagement, the higher the turnout and the poorer Mr. Harper’s prospects. Of great interest is the huge advance turnout which we have been tracking in our polling as well. Interestingly both the Conservatives and Liberals are running neck and neck there and the NDP isn’t doing very well.

We conclude with a final note on the cellphone population. While this may seem like an area of technical obscurantism we think this segment will be critical to the outcome of the election. In the last election we were further off the final result for having included this segment that were less likely to vote and less likely to favour the Conservatives. Those two features are still very much in play this time with the notable difference that the cellphone only population is now at least three times larger and tells us they are much more certain to vote than they told us last time. The cellphone only population contains lots of the younger and educated respondents who tell us they are extremely engaged and motivated by the values war that seems to underlie this election. If they show up Harper loses; if they don’t he wins.

There is a point here that nobody is talking about or taking into account. The old PC vote. Most of them were immigrants who worked hard and earned their citizenship. Mr. Harpers comment about Old Stock Canadians and Immigrant Canadians has come like a slap in the face. This now appears to be a class structure. So what are we now? 2nd class citizens? We all paid 1st class taxes but now our status has changed. I dont think so and we are not afraid. Been there, done that.

Anybody who thinks we are all going to vote for somebody who felt so free to demean our Canadian Citizenship has got rocks in their head. While we were PCs, we lived under P.E.Trudeau. we worked, we made money, paid taxes, raised children, bought homes and did not have to hear all the garbage of division, snitch lines & religious bs.

The Alliance/Reform really need to get themselves straightened out. Its a pastor they need. Canada needs a Prime Minister. These are two different things and it might just take enough old PCs to hold back on the vote because Mr. Harper does not represent the Canada we represent.

I disagree with the tone of this article. Harper doesn’t stand a chance unless he cheats on a massive scale which is quite possible. If he manages to steal a “win” even by one seat there should be a thorough investigation before a single con is allowed anywhere near Parliament. We know how little they respect the law, fairness, and decency. They will destroy every shred of evidence against them.

Harper hates everything about Canada and the Citizens of Canada. His values are not Canadian. They are much closer to the values of fascism, of the neo-nazis. And of Hitler one of his mentors.

His climb to power is very similar to Hitler’s. “Old Stock Canadians” sounds very much like Hitler’s “Aryan Race”. Bill C-51, now law, gives him full dictatorial powers. A whisper of opposition to SH can be branded as “terrorism” or treason. SH will be able to send his “Gestapo” around in the middle of the night and “disappear” anyone the sadistic, paranoid psychopath decides to eliminate.

Harper must be removed from all Canadian politics, investigate for his crimes, prosecuted, and sentenced to the full extent of the law. No one in Canada is above the law including Stephan Harper and his enablers.

John Turner, you do realize your comment is a tad on the hysterical side, especially the neo-nazi thing. It’s actually due to these over-the-top statements by people who dislike Harper that made me look more into things and do my own research. That’s when I realized how many of these claims about him are emotional hype.

His values ARE Canadian, in fact, he’s the only one of the three who puts Canadians first. I used to vote Liberal, but when Justin Trudeau became leader of the party, I was at a loss. I would never vote for such an immature person, and I believed the terrible things said about Harper so I couldn’t bring myself to vote for him either.

As much as you like to believe, Harper’s not a criminal, if anything he’s actually been one of the cleaner Prime Ministers. The Liberals with their ad scam was much worse, and this crime was actually proven. It took me a while to forgive them for that, but then they elected Justin as party leader. I won’t be going back.

When I opened my eyes to the exaggeration and overly-emotional complaining of the anti-Harper crowd, I was able to determine that he wasn’t anything as bad as I once believed. I’m glad I did, because I’ve always preferred the rational approach, especially when it comes to choosing Canada’s Prime Minister. Like it or not, Harper is the only one of the main three even capable of running a country. For the sake of Canada and safety of Canadians, I hope he wins a majority. We will see on October 19th if Canadians prefer to base their vote on logic or emotion.

Jennifer. Have you or your liberal friends even read Justin Trudeau’s resume. The man has done nothing except for being a full time student and a math teacher for a year. Can you seriously believe that he is capable of running a country. Prime Minister Harper is the one to vote for, but if your so against Harper at leats vote for Muclair who at least has had a job in the past.

I agree that Mr Turner’s comments are hysterical and way over e top. I am a progressive voter but would never compare Harper to Hitler. That’s absurd, and a real insult to people who suffered under the real Hitler.
However…
It does not follow that because some progressive posters use overly dramatic language that a vote for Harper is the logical choice. The conservative campaign has relied far more on emotion than fact, from the now stale Trudeau is not ready trope, to the niqab, to the anti-Muslim hysteria, to the disrespect for science. This is not the campaign of a party that feels confident of the logic of its record or its positions.

And I’m surprised that, with two highly based Conservative operatives in prison over electoral cheating, that you think there are no conservative crimes actually proven. Really I don’t think I can trust your statement that you used to be Liberal. But perhaps you were, and just got so “emotionally” reactive about Mr Trudeau that you lost your perspective.

Bruce M, although you seem calmer than most, John Turner’s response is how many on the far left react to Harper.

It’s not anti-Muslim hysteria, it’s the real and completely reasonable fear of militant Muslims. Do you actually believe Canada is and will always be safe from ISIS? Do you actually believe it’s a good idea to allow in thousands of people at a time from a terrorist occupied country with little security measures to speed up the process? Do you think instead of protecting ourselves from these terrible people that we should concentrate on finding out “the root causes”?

As for the niqab, I wish it was completely banned from Canada. It is a symbol of oppression of women who have known nothing than oppression all their lives. Why do you think the niqab was made? It was to cover the face of a woman so that she would not tempt a man, just by being a woman. It’s a slap in the face to Canadian values, and Canadian culture where women and men have equal rights and opportunities, that one is not superior to the other. I don’t understand how you can just ignore this and claim everything Harper says about the safety of Canadians is only fear mongering. It’s dangerous for us to stand by and allow extreme Islam to influence and change our culture and values. Take a look at what’s happening in Europe with the migrants, and stop disregarding it all as fear mongering.

Who are you to say who I once voted for? You don’t know me. People can and have every right to change their political preferences, especially as the get older and wiser. I’m nowhere near 40, but I now prefer thinking before I vote, rather than viewing voting for our country’s leader as a popularity contest like I did at 20.

Why I think a vote for Justin Trudeau is an illogical choice is not because of any emotional feelings I have for him, I don’t have anything against him on a personal level as many on the left seem to have for Harper, but because he is obviously not a good choice for leading our country. His inexperience, his mannerisms when he debates with other politicians, his overall ignorance of how to run an economy, how to pay for all that spending he’s been promising, and absolutely no leadership skills is why I’m baffled that anyone could even think about voting for him. I absolutely don’t understand the appeal, I suppose some people can be easily influenced through emotional connections with him, like his charisma and his good looks. For me, those qualities aren’t enough, and aren’t important for a Prime Minister.

That is just precious. Harper is the biggest cheat of all past, present, and future Canadian prime ministers, and he is as terrible as Ronald Reagan. They share another thing in common. Reagan and Harper are the worst leaders of their respective countries.

Well said Livly. I really wish people would just google Justin Trudeau’s resume. Do we want a Prime Minister who has been a student for the better part of his life? Someone who aside from a short stint as a math teacher has never worked for a living? Its not even about being Liberal or Conservative. Having an inexperienced child for a Prime Minister would be devastating for this country. I, along with you Livly am in awe of how anyone could think Trudeau is a good choice to lead the Liberal Party, let alone run this country.

What complete nonsense, Livly. All four leaders put Canadians first. Harper though has more than one class of Canadian. That is not my value nor does it reflect the true nature of this country. Harper would have us scrap our rights and freedoms in the insane belief that we are in imminent danger and we need a police state to survive. He breeds paranoia. He claims c51 is just to go after terrorists, but has not really defined who they are. I note that his party branded those opposing Northern Gateway ” ecoterrorists”. Does that mean they could be targeted? Well, we know that CSIS and the RCMP infiltrated groups opposed to the pipeline then held weekly briefings with pipeline executives. Harper has also lied to Parleament, prorogued it when thing did not go his way, cheated in elections and a multitude of other things which violate Canadian values of honesty and fairness.
You seem to be of the belief that he puts Canadians first, but which Canadians….the rich? Those with Christian beliefs? Certainly not Aboriginal Canadians,nor Muslim Canadians. In fact he plays to a racist sentiment he believes exists in most Canadians, but I think he is wrong about that too.

Ok since John Turner’s post has already been addressed I’ll post this reply to Bruce M. You at least sound more stable emotion wise but it’s typical of many on the left to get all hysterical over Harper, and it’s a turn off for those of us who have a better grasp of our emotions. You also don’t seem to get the reaction to Justin Trudeau is not as much a emotional response than it is that many of us are frustrated with people that vote for Trudeau without caring about the fact that he doesn’t know what he’s doing and will run our country into the ground with his outrageous spending promises and deficits, and other garbage. His dear old dad did enough damage to Canada but at least Trudeau Sr was a professional politician. Meanwhile his son would be an embarrassment to Canadians with his lack of experience and his unprofessional demeanor in general; like the way he talks and interrupts people because he can’t wait his turn. Do you think the world leaders will tolerate his bratty attitude the way Harper and Mulcair had to at the debates? A random teenager has the same qualifications as Trudeau Jr and this is who you want running the country? No thanks. I was thinking of voting for Mulcair this time around but Harper has proven himself to be the better choice despite what the biased media and the emotionally unstable say about him.

There are actually similarities between Hitlers rise to power and Harper’s actions. You should read a little about Hitlers early political life and the years leading up to the war. IF you can keep your mind open, you will see the parallels others refer to. I am not saying they are identical but similar enough to warrant the comparison. When it comes to Hitler comparisons, though, Putin is actually a better match.

Everybody here seems to address the inexperience of Trudeau as a reason not to vote for him. But remember Harper in 2006, did not have much more experience than Trudeau today, so it is not a valid objection as to why someone should not vote for the LPC.

Just to be clear, I do not support Harper one second! I was just saying that it must take experience to be elected leader of any Party. So the argument is not valid when someone says this leader or this leader is inexperienced.

The younger people who are more carefree and less informed will vote for Trudeau, specifically for his spending sprees and promise to legalize marijuana. The educated young people who care about the future of Canada, and many of the working class and seniors will vote for Harper. Basically if people vote with logic and common sense, Harper will win. If more vote emotionally or just go with the flow, well let’s just say Canada will be in for a rough ride with another Trudeau at the helm, and this one has no clue what he’s doing.

It would seem your opinions are not confirmed by the polls which all show university educated people primarily vote Liberal. In fact, the lower the educational level the more likely people are to support the conservatives.
But don’t let the facts get in the way of your opinion!

you’re missing a couple things here – university education does not neccessarily mean that you’re informed about current events or fine nuances of things you werent even studying..

second thing, the older people are the more likely they are to *not* vote liberal. there’s a reason for that (they are the better informed from years of experience, not the kids with no or little experience in anything besides a narrow field of study)

Impressionable university students in this day and age are influenced by their Liberal professors. I know this as fact, not opinion. People who went to university before it was invaded by Liberal professors vote Conservative. My friends had to explain this to their daughter who was completely disillusioned by what her professors drilled into her head.

Being educated also differs from being educated AND intelligent. If these people you mention knew better, they wouldn’t be voting with their emotions, and certainly Justin Trudeau wouldn’t be appealing to them at all.

She’s a complete partisan hack. Can’t imagine a world where people could disagree with her based on logic, must be emotion, must be impressionable sheep. Absolutely no humility. This from a person who says she’ll abandon the Liberal FOREVER because they choose Trudeau, and she feels a sense of immaturity from him; an emotional impression and therefore an emotional decision. Not factual at all, at least not in a way she felt worthy of presenting. She’s trying to toy with their sense of self-respect: ‘This is what you are if you vote for Trudeau’. It’s truly creepy. I’m not as hysterical as John Turner, but not far off either. And even I wouldn’t say Harper has prevented me from ever voting Conservative in my life because when it comes to your own political beliefs there are more important things than the dear leader, just not if your a tory right now.

Livly, Do you know what a troll is? Has anyone ever said that you might be one? If so the reason is because you appear to not read what others have posted or comment without reference to facts.
Here is a fact I attended University of Calgary in the early 1970s. I believe that Trudeau’s platform is the best to stimulate our economy. Trudeau’s leadership best suited to our complex, well educated and caring nation. Harper has proven he is not suited to the job. In addition Harper has squandered billions of tax dollars with nothing to show for it. I will be relieved if Canadians defeat Harper and he is forced to be the leader of the opposition. Many senior I know will be supporting Justin Trudeau in Calgary Centre. We just hope the rest of the country realizes Harper should not be part of Canada’s future.

Wow judging by Jennifer’s response to your opinion Livly its obvious that some people are truly without reason. You Jennifer can call someone a troll (I assume you mean Internet Troll and not the fictional one – at least I hope so for the sake of our future) for stating their opinion? Furthermore you try to back up your opinion of Livly by saying that her opinion is not corroborated with fact. You are the only one stirring up crap in a forum setting. The fact is Trudeau doesn’t have the experience to run a country. He has done nothing in his 42 years other than aspiring to be a full time student and a supply teacher for a short period. A mere google search will provide all the facts you require. This is who you want running Canada? I’m voting Harper, but for anyone that wants an alternative vote Muclair (as much as it pains me to write that), but at least the man has had a paycheck or two over his lifetime.

Hey Jennifer Pollock: a troll is in the eye of the reader. I see you and your buddies as the ones trolling. I will be relieved if Canadians are smart enough to keep Harper as the Prime Minister and it would be nice to see Justin Trudeau in 3rd party status again. Most seniors in Canada know better than to vote for Justin Trudeau, especially since they lived through the reign of his father.

Really Jeremy? Then tell me why it is that every highly educated and successful person I know always vote CPC? Before you say I must not know that many people or something equally patronizing, my profession has me dealing with highly intelligent people from around the world everyday, and I know my fair share from Canada. University educated doesn’t mean squat since most universities teach only liberal garbage these days. If you’re educated and don’t do anything with that education,like too many students today who want everything handed to them; then being educated is pointless. People who vote conservative are both educated and successful so don’t go lecturing others about mixing opinions with facts when you aren’t aware of the facts yourself.

Partisan hack? You know what? Forget it. Gerald just proved exactly what I’ve been talking about, and I’m not going to waste anymore time here. It’s impossible to hold a proper conversation with someone on the far left, their hysteria just pops out and the discussion degenerates into more of their irrational insults and rants. His descriptions are just bizarre, “truly creepy”? Who talks like that? Judging by his response, not only is he as hysterical as John Turner, but just as mentally stunted.

Abandoning the Liberal party because they chose a bad leader is not unreasonable, and abandoning it forever because I woke up from the delusions that were fed to me by the media and my peers is my rightful choice to make.

Typing to a brick wall and receiving incomprehensible and outright ridiculous replies like Gerald’s is a waste of time and effort. Most of the comments here by Trudeau supporters only prove what I already know. Good luck to all of us if the Trudeau bunch get their wish. We’re definitely going to need it.

@james: i don’t actually have an opinion on the ‘university educated’ thing – i am just pointing out that Livly’s comment regarding who voted liberal vs who votes conservative weren’t supported by the piling numbers.

As for answering your question, i would say that i am not surprised most of the educated people you know vote CPC. The EKOS poll shows 39% of university educated people vote liberal vs 30% CPC so the actually difference isn’t that great. Most people tend to associate with others with whom they share similar belief systems so it makes sense you know lots of educated CPC supporters.

I am not making value judgements about people who vote in a particular way … just commenting on ekos’ numbers.

The in-and-out fraud, the robocall scandal, $1 Billion for the G20 and the resultant violation of Canadians’ rights, the F35 boondoggle and 2 sets of financial books, billions for frigates we don’t need, betrayal of veterans, being complicit in the torture of Afghan detainees, contempt of Parliament, gagging scientists, attacks on environmental groups, destruction of the long-form census, private and public union busting, stacking the Senate, Senate scandal cover up, attacks on women’s groups, income trust flip-flop, consecutive massive budget deficits, attacks on First Nations, destruction of Canada Post home delivery, billions of dollars for prisons we don’t need, a new billion dollar spy agency headquarter, consecutive expansions of murderous combat missions in Middle East, continuously passing unconstitutional legislation that gets struck down by the courts, attacking the integrity of Supreme Court Justices, multiple prorogations of Parliament to escape votes of non-confidence, massive unemployment, convicted MPs and other government members, a 9-year stagnant economy

People will finally decide with stability and good economy…and I encourage everybody to vote for the candidate they like….as far as I can see after analizing all the polls PC still in the lead, Lib second and NDP but Green Party will collect a lot more this time.

Imagining Ms. Roberts & Ms. May having herbal tea somewhere in the Gulf Islands, or some Murchie’s at the Fairmont Empress. The pianist in the atrium is playing Raffi’s “Bananaphone” but is drowned out by a cellphone’s ringtone ‘I Want You’ from the Beatles’ Abbey Road album.
“That could be the phone!” blurts Ms. May.
“I wonder whoever it could be?” inquires Ms. Roberts.
“Caller ID shows a 514 area code…” Ms. May trails. “Allo! Le chef du Parti Vert ici. Qui est là?”

As for the NDP and the liberals, there’s seems to be no grey zone with the conservatives. Harper was a need for equilibrium, now keeping him there (his team of Reform Party roots and all) would be a serious hazard. Internationally, no one can argue that he was just antisocial and a personification of antagonism. As previously mention, there’s no grey zone for all parties, but more troubling for the Harper government (not to be confuse with the conservatives). If bringing a narrow reprentation of moralist view should be impose to the entire nation, then we should vote Harper. Anyone knows that Harper do not represent the feelings of the majority.

To understand what Trudeau will do; one need only look at Europe. The thousands of white English school girls who were raped by Muslims,(Rotherham) the ejection of white people from their homes; to make way for, “refugees.” (Germany) You can kiss your safety goodbye if you vote Liberal or NDP. Both parties want to flood Canada with mad dog Muslims.

Before we help others; we need to fix the problems in our country. We have homeless people, starving seniors and children and much more. NOT ONE Liberal ever brings up our own problems. Liberals would rather help others than their own kind.

It’s pretty simple really. I want solid proven leadership of a safe country, that stands up against terrorism, is economically stable and keeps taxes low. I believe in a health care system, not a welfare system and I don’t want the Toronto Liberal elites with their snouts back in the trough & Kathleen Wynne running Canada. Harper is the only choice for me and many like me. All the rock star crap from Trudeau’s gang, as well as the insincerity from the NDP, pretending to be something they aren’t just doesn’t cut it for me.

my only comment to Mr turner is that i use to be a liberal as well but i became disenchanted with their entitled attitude being who is next in line to be prime minister losing sight their job is to serve the PEOPLE. My reaction to Mr Turner is i think he has gone mad in his old age he is 86 years old maybe he always was,Mr Harper came in and did a very good job in a tough world wide situation we now have the lowest federal taxes in 50 years and a balanced budget no mean feat ,and the liberals hate him because he was and is smarter than them>.Just imagine with the flaky Trudeau[he takes after his mother] he would have opened up the flood gates and let all those migrants into our precious country,Germany is already got a night mare situation.I am really sincerely afraid for my country with a flake like trudeau making decisions just picture him up against Putin it would be like a little boy playing against a grown man, Think about it folks this is serious shit we’re talking here. Look at another situation WE have a $ 2,000,000,000,000 economy that needs a CEO would you let him manage it when all he has ever been a rich boy who never had to balance his own chequing account i rest my case cheers

Canada is doomed and it begun in 1982 when trudeau brought in that phoney document called the charter of rights & freedoms. the nigab is just the beginning, hold on to your wallets, the wolves are @ the door.

I believe the authors point was regarding engagement and it does not matter how many advanced polls there were in each election, the numbers are up and up substantially which shows engagement. When the election is over we will see if engagmaent is actually up but the indication appears to show it is.

Why would you assume that someone “progressive” would not vote Conservative? It’s truly bizarre when there has been a pro-life caucus and anti-gay vote in the liberal Party for decades. many people are just voting for a government that has not done a bad job in difficult economic times over an untested or radical alternative. Those of us that don’t suffer from a derangement syndrome that is. Much of what is said about this government is simply false or hysterical ranting and raving bordering on lunacy. My husband doesn’t really vote. he voted this time Conservative and told me it was because he didn’t feel those people attacking the government were being sane or fair and it was just too much. I assure myself and my husband and my son are “progressive”: feminist, pro gay rights, pro-choice, supportive of immigrants (going to all white places makes me nervous and uneasy. We all voted Conservative. FYI We are also all university educated.

Graham: As far as the 16% increase in voters at advanced polls goes, Canada’s population has increased 4.4% since then and given we are an aging population, there are about 5% more eligible voters. We are only looking at an increase of 11% in voter turnout over the first 3 days of 2011.

Since early voting has been pushed as a benefit to the party one supports both in Canada and the US widely, I don’t think any direct or specific political persuasion can be attributed to this turnout.

Livly, I completely agree with you. If pretty hair doesnèt do it for you like a high school kid, lol Justin just isnèt the guy. Angry Tom doesnèt do it for me either, though I can respect his debating ability. Foreign policy and the economy are my voting issues. I joined the orange wave last election because Layton was great, but I was rooting for the conservatives and they one in my riding anyways. I predict Winnipeg south (which has the university of Manitoba in it) will vote the same way again. I can’t get over how Justin just expects to have the throne handed to him on his first try at it. Harper at least unighted the right by joining the alliance party and the pc’s before he took office, so he had some real results that he could point to, to show he was competent

Sept. 15, 2008: “My own belief is if we were going to have some kind of crash or recession, we probably would have had it by now.”
Sept. 16, 2008: “The Canadian economy’s fundamentals are solid.”
Sept. 25, 2008: “The only way there is going to be a recession is if they’re (the Liberals) elected and that’s why they’re not going to be elected.”
Oct. 6, 2008: “There’s nothing on the horizon — notwithstanding the storm clouds, and they are significant — (that) indicates to me that we should immediately go into deficit.”
Oct. 7, 2008: “I think there are probably some great buying opportunities emerging in the stock market.”
Nov. 22, 2008: “These are, of course, the classic circumstances under which budgetary deficits are essential.”
Dec. 15, 2008: “The truth is, I’ve never seen such uncertainty in terms of looking forward to the future.”

Is this the best we can do? Clearly not and a majority of Canadians agree.

i don’t really agree with this, and i find the characterization troubling.

the niqab isn’t a values issue. it’s just a tyranny of the majority. there’s a constitutional right on the table. it’s not an issue that is up for debate, or is to be determined by majority decree. the government doesn’t have the ability to legislate the way it’s claiming to. the court is going to overturn all of it.

so, even if there’s truly a perception of these trivialities being important and defining in some way, there’s no means to that end. we’d have to suspend the constitution.

which means this is either a lot of meaningless hot air, or those comparisons to hitler are less extreme than so-called moderate voices may suggest. there’s not a middle point.

you don’t expect conservatives to take tyranny of the majority style positions, urinating all over de tocqueville’s grave. it’s a big part of what a conservative is supposed to be.

and you don’t expect anybody at all to openly campaign on them; not in a liberal democratic society.

so, your context is there: sure. the idea that this is some kind of an issue to be voted on at all is a big victory for totalitarianism, and a strong loss for liberal democracy. but, it’s hard to see how this goes anywhere beyond empty electoral rhetoric.

deathtokoals: Minority rights have limits. They can’t infringe on others rights. And there are things in Canadian society people can’t consent to.

We can’t advocate hate of any identifiable group in Canada. Wearing a Niqab is threatening. I will put forward that it advocates hate of women’s rights. We also live in a society where security trumps rights. People need to be identified. They can’t walk into a band wearing a hoodie. We also have lots of other laws about clothing in restaurants for public health reasons, on public transit. I can’t get on a bus without shoes on. Wearing a niqab is no more a right than wearing a bondage outfit to grade school. That wouldn’t be allowed either.

I don’t believe the niqab should be allowed in open Canadian society. If they want to wear that garment at home, or in their mosque that’s fine. Not in public, anywhere. I find it infringes on my rights to not be threatened by radical misogyny in public.

I am absolutely fine with head coverings, but the face goes to far. What if they make all women wear dog collars and leashes next, with an electrical shock if they speak? Will that be ok, if the woman says she’s good with it and it’s her choice?

Women choose to be in abusive situations all the time. Canada has a right to make it against the law. The niqab is abuse of women in public.

To pretend this a simple religious choice is absurd. This comes from cultures that stone women to death, or gang rape them at the whim of the village elders if they step out of line.

see, i don’t even think your points are worthwhile enough to address. you’re either ridiculously ignorant of how our legal system works, or you’re disingenuously stoking up fear.

the reason we have a supreme court with nine learned judges on it is because we realize that this isn’t the kind of decision that can be left up to the general public – because they will no doubt present the kind of absurd arguments that you’re presenting. call it elitist if you want, and it is, a little. but, the reality is that our constitution is built to prevent the braying masses from attacking minority rights. and, the only way to break through the constitution is to discard it.

it does lead to some frightening conclusions, in the abstract, even if the more likely scenario is that this goes nowhere at all.

i’ve said this before: the most enduring legacy of stephen harper, the part that survives his lifetime and carries on through the generations, is going to be the supreme court rulings against him. there’s not much legislative law that he’s written that’s going to outlast him. but, he has unwittingly greatly enriched the judicial precedents to be used in upholding the constitution, and it’s charter of rights.

deathtokoalas: it’s your points that aren’t worthwhile and you’re completely ignorant if you think people’s fear of a barbaric practice and culture invading Canada isn’t justified. The niqab is all about oppressing women, why do these women cover their faces? So the their men don’t feel like raping them. Why should Canadian women put up with this obvious misogyny? Either you’re a sexist yourself or you’re so desperate to defend Trudeau that you’ll just make up excuses.
People should not be allowed to cover their face in public, it’s bad enough they wear those bulky burqa things. I’ve seen little kids flee in terror when catching sight of these black blobs gliding down the streets. They don’t even look human, and that’s the point, to dehumanize women. If Muslims want to keep being misogynistic, they need to stay in their own countries not come here and force their backwards beliefs on civilized people.

Let’s not forget the media throughout all this! The CBC is not pro Harper as he has cut their budget. And CTV? With Robert Fife at the helm, he has led the anti-Harper crusade for years. He even has put our embassy staff at risk by leaking a Secret document, meant to protect our overseas missions, thanks no doubt to a anti-Harper public servant. Having been to many embassies, I know of some weaknesses, and reported on it, but would never put our staff at risk by making it public. Is this the only way Fife can promote his anyone but Harper stance? And let’s not forget the Duffy trial. Despite the anti-Harper ravings of media reporters, Duffy’s lawyer NEVER asked the key question. When did you tell the PM about the $90,000 deal? A good lawyer does not ask a question which will not help his client. But Fife didn’t bring that up did he? The only things missing from Fife’s program Question Period are the balance approach by John Iverson vs the rest of the panel, and the red handkerchiefs of the other panel members. Perhaps CTV should be registered with Elections Canada as a Liberal organization, as there appears to be no reporters opposing them on the show.

Interesting … all these comments and only two people have actually answered the question put forth! Here’s my opinion based on the news trends and current polling data.

I see momentum building for the liberals and the media discourse flowing that way as well (pushing the ‘VALUES’ and ‘change’ election). I note even conservative papers like the national post and globe and mail have been saying positive things of trudeau. I get the impression the media loves to feel they are controlling public opinion and think this may shift toward “Liberal majority’ if there is momentum through the first couple days of this week.

Like with the orange crush in 2011 i think this might build into the election, the difference with the general perception of the Liberal party and NDP being that people are familiar with Liberals governing. In 2011 there appeared to be an undercurrent of fear that the NDP had never governed before and would be a potential disaster leading to a surge to the CPC that gave a majority. So if the media really gets in a frenzy this may break in a big way towards the liberals.

Lib 182
CPC 93
NDP 58
BQ 3
Grn 2

Or i could be totally wrong!
(I have no declared bias – am Canadian overseas and can’t vote!! – unlike prisoners)

To Bruce M. And all who delight in facts!
The global crisis is real! From Greece to the Middle East! Did you hear about the tragedy in Turkey.
I’m lazy you do the math l could go on all day. So what you call fear campaign I call concerned Conservatives for all Canadians~
If you’ve been sleeping for a while doing business on a global level is what all countries need.
Oil well let’s just stop blaming Harper for world affairs.
If I may just a few more facts. All parties that have been in power have had hiccups. No government
In history has been able to deliver on all campaign promises. Economic benefits come at a price.
Enough Facts reality is the world is in a tough situation. Having said that my opinion is to have a gov. with
Experience lead on for four more years. Give Justin time to grow! Nothing much gets done with a minority
Government. My opinion vote intelligent, leave your emotions at home!
As for me and my house we will trust the Lord. As well as vote for the Rt. Honourable Steven Harper.
Thanks to all who care about this safe beautiful place we live.

Do you know why its law in Canada that domestic abuse has to be prosecuted, even if the victim says it’s fine and they are ok? Because it happens all the time.

The Niqab is abuse of women and it should be illegal in public, not just at the polling station. it doesn’t matter if she says it’s her choice. It’s abuse and it stands for the complete dehumanizing of women and the removal of their rights.

So if a Muslim woman truely wants to wear one and you force her not, are you not violating rights? Is that not abusive? For her it might mean she is too embarrassed to go out of the home at all as it would be immodest, IN HER OPINION. You assume this abuse but have you ever even talked to a Muslim woman? Have you ever researched Islam? Freedom to choose is her right not yours or the states. Do not assume women who wear the Niqab are being forced to do so by a person. She may be doing because of her beliefs.

Jeremy a lot of so called polls are actually online panels which may be able to tell us about trends but not the horse race. Also most polling forms are not reporting support by age group like EKOS which will also be a factor.

In the US polling firms always screen for likely voters with quite comprehensive questions and don’t count those respondents who don’t get above a certain score in the horse race.

Also polls have colossally failed several times in recent elections around the globe and Gallup the most venerated of polling firms and the inventor of political polling has withdrawn from polling horse race numbers stating that it is no longer possible to be accurate.

btw Canadians can vote if they are overseas with an absentee ballot if they have been out of the country for less than 5 years. More than that, and they can vote the moment they step foot in Canada again, any time during a writ period.

Not sure what the point of your comments are. Everyone is well aware of how different polls are conducted.

Mine is just an interpretation of the tea leaves … and written before the Ipsos Reid and EKOS polls came out today showing a further swing toward the Liberals. Sure polls sometimes miss the mark with some recent notable exceptions … but most of the time they are pretty bang on (e.g. 2011 Federal election).

Like I said — just a prediction based on an ostensibly objective interpretation of the current polling data and the media narrative as I bet it will flow in the coming week.

i suppose i should post a prediction, as well – although it’s a fool’s game.

liberals – 150-169.

i think there’s a brick wall there. the models are using uniform proportional swing, which i think is overweighting them in rural areas and underweighting them in urban areas. for example, cbc has them winning in haldimand-norfolk and losing in kitchener. i think, at 40%+ they win kitchener, and it’s hard to see how they win haldimand at all without a split. it looks to me like they will sweep most of the urban areas – and that may include calgary and edmonton, if there is some strategic voting. the only exception seems to be quebec city.

conservatives – 100-120

it’s all rural seats, at this point. the ridings nobody else could possible win.

ndp – 40-60

they’ll get a few seats in quebec, but i think the ndp are back to their traditional seats after this election.

bloc – 10-30

i know ekos is charting them downwards, but at the end of the day i don’t see how the ndp keeps those seats without the additional boost from the liberals. see, that’s the tricky part. the ndp got a big swing from the bloc in 2011, it is true. they also got a 10 point boost from the liberals. and, they would not have beat the bloc in a lot of places without that ten point swing from the liberals. you take that way, and the bloc only have to run around 20 to win a lot of seats back. again: i don’t like uniform swing models, and they’re especially tricky in quebec.

if it’s really close, i think the liberals can get a few floor crossings. i think they’re going to want to avoid any kind of actual agreement with elizabeth may; i’m not even convinced they’d welcome her into caucus.

i mean, if the liberals get 169 seats and lose five seats to the conservatives by a margin that is less than the green vote, it’s hard to see how they interpret her as anything less than a pariah. the last thing they want to give her is a platform to speak over. she’d have to cross; that’s the only acceptable condition. but, what the liberals are going to actually want to do is push some solid environmental policy to try and get rid of them. a floor-crossing would help deflate them. but, she’s so remarkably invested in the party, that it’s almost hard to take the premise seriously.

Given my opinion. I sure hope I’m wrong!
I’d like to see 192 CP but I’m trying to keep it real.
After all is said I dream of the day all parties work together for
The Wonderful Country we are blessed to live in.
Just maybe someday ??

While I understand the fear of the right wing we as a country should not be voting on fear alone. Our country is currently on the decline and only an economic boost Trudeau promises (Much like how the states ended the great depression) can bring us out of it, and to those who see Justin as unfit for government, you forget that this is what he has been studying and preparing for all his life and to say he isn’t ready to lead because of that is a slap in the face to young adults everywhere which is why liberals are leading with young people. Because they treat them as equals

All this neo-Nazi rubbish was spouted out during the last election and the two previous ones to nil effect. Why? Beacause Canadians are not stupid and dont see Mr Harper in this way unless you are a Liberal Lovey from the GTA. Im still saying that Canadians are in for a shock if they think Turdeau is going to be PM on 19October.

Gotta say this….there sure are a few commentators on here who would make mighty fine Republicans south of the border.
Fact is Harper is a control freak who has muzzled any scientific input and destroyed Stats Can which at one time was the most highly regarded statistical agency in the world. He and his “boys in short pants” in the PMO have never felt the need for trained professional unbiased opinion on any subject. His time has come and he is “goin’ down”.

Wow, all the haters that destroy the Conservative policies and track records only do it because of their selfish interests! I will like to put the record straight that the CPC government had done nothing to jeopardize the economy, rather we are still at an enviable position compare to other world economies; even countries like China and UK are obviously struggling.

On the issue of Niqab, I will like to point out that Canada is the best country in the world and I am proud to be a naturalized Canadian. The moslem can never enjoy the same rights and freedoms they are enjoying in western world in most Islamic countries. It is worth mentioning that your children do not have any political rights in countries like UAE, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Iran, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, and many Islamic countries even if they were born in that country through an “alien” moslem!

Many people are just taking an undue advantage of the social benevolence of this great nation, and the issue of the niqab readily comes to mind. “When you are in Rome you behave like a Roman. Do you even have any rights as a foreigner in many Islamic countries, where their laws are very repugnant and oppressive? I will suggest the proponents of “Niqab thing” should start first in challenging the oppressive and repugnant outlook of the Sharia law.

Also, when the so called “Niqab advocate” knew they would not submit to Canadian law and values, why did they migrate to start with? They should have stayed in the society where their “freedom” of dressing would not be challenged.

I will like to submit that the Liberal and NDP governments are not being truthful in their handling of economic and social issues, rather they are only trying to score political points, and ultimately to win not too intelligent voters.

Finally, can someone tell me what a potential Trudeau government would do better? In my own opinion, the Conservative government is the most ideal government for not only Canadian values but our economy. Vote Team Harper!