Risk for Caribbean War

The Cold War never ended. The collapse of communism in Europe was widely seen as the end of the Cold War between the USSR and the USA. However, Cuba did not surrender. Castro stayed in there, found a new ally in China, shifted strategy, and together they quietly started conquering Latin America. With the death of Hugo Chávez on December 30, 2012, they have now reached the end of the road for that strategy. They are left with only two options: Hot war, or retreat.

If you haven’t heard about this yet it is because they have a very efficient propaganda apparatus. This is a fourth generation war, it is a cold war fought in media. They know that Western diplomats, starved of money for their intelligence services, rely on media reports to figure out what is happening. It is therefore a simple question of getting the media to write what they want, and media are all too easy to manipulate nowadays. Sorry media guys, but it’s true; you are very gullible.

The Castro brothers have tried to take control over Venezuela since they came to power. Guerilla war, invasion, incitement to rebellion, military coup, and finally going to elections. The fifth time was the charm. It turns out that presidential republics (like USA, Mexico, and so on all the way to Argentina and Chile) are very easy to take control over. All it takes is some money for bribes, along with an intelligence service that digs up dirt that can be used for blackmailing, and a propaganda apparatus that makes sure that the rest of the world hears what they want to hear.

In 1999, the Castro man took office in Venezuela, Hugo Chávez. The same guy who had been their front man in the failed 1992 military coups. He suffered from megalomania, which made him easy to manipulate for the Cubans. With him in Miraflores (the presidential palace in Caracas) the Castros could start milking the cow. Oil prices soaring, Cuba is now stealing about $1B per year from Venezuela. A lot of the loot is used to bribe other nations, turning them into collaborators. In this way a majority has been achieved in the OAS, and also other international organizations have been castrated, by joining forces with other authoritarian regimes around the world. The democracies are now the minority, just as was the case before the outset of WWII.

In Latin America, Ecuador and Bolivia are completely in Cuba’s corner and under Cuban control. Nicaragua is also in Cuba’s corner, although Ortega is more of his own man. In contrast, Evo Morales in Bolivia seems clueless. He just the other day went to Venezuela and asked to meet with Hugo Chávez, which contributed to exposing the lie to the world. He obviously does not know or understand that Chávez is dead, and that the impostor Nicolás Maduro is lying through his teeth when he says that Chávez is “recovering”. It would seem the native american president is another victim of the Cuban imperialism. Rafael Correa in Ecuador, on the other hand, appears to be more of a willing co-conspirator.

What’s Next?

With the lie in Venezuela about to explode, there is no telling what will happen. The chavista die-hards don’t yet know that Maduro is lying to them, and that Chávez died last year. They only accept Maduro as acting vice president as long as they believe that the orders really come from Hugo Chávez. To understand what this means one has to look at where the real power lies in Venezuela – i.e., who has the guns.

First we have the military. They do not have full access to guns, because the Cubans don’t trust them. They have repeatedly tried to overthrow the Chávez regime, knowing full well that it has only been holding on to power through widespread election fraud ever since the early days of the regime. Therefore the Cubans have taken over the intelligence apparatus in Venezuela. There are rumors of Cuban officers in the armed forces, which I have not been able to confirm. However, in the Navy I have been able to get confirmation that at least some units are not infiltrated, and the same goes for the National Guard.

There is also the militia, thugs who have been armed by the regime. Gun shops have been closed, not even ammunition is available to law-abiding citizens. The only place to buy ammo is in the slum where these thugs control access, the so-called “colectivos”. They have been equipped with motorbikes and AK47 or similar. These milicias are fanatical chavistas, and that poses a problem for Maduro and his Cuban masters. When they find out how they have been lied to, they are likely to turn their guns against the regime, and not against the opposition as was the original idea.

Furthermore there are the terrorists, who control parts of the country. Apart from the cocaine-smuggling FARC and ELN, there are imported terrorists: ETA, Hezbollah, and others. There are also a significant number of Iranians in Venezuela, who just loaf around, claiming to have come to work but who do little more than drink bear and hang out. They are likely sleeping cells of terrorists. Venezuela used to be a close ally to Gaddafi’s Libya, and still is a close ally to Assad’s Syria. The Venezuelan puppet regime of Havana is assisting the Syrian dictator with oil and propaganda, and perhaps also arms.

Cuban Military Forces in Venezuela

There are overwhelming reasons to believe that the tens of thousands of Cubans who have been sent for years to Venezuela as “doctors”, “teachers”, and “trainers”, in reality are sleeping cells of military. After Chávez’s death they were all given uniforms, Venezuelan army uniforms. They were subsequently stationed on Venezuelan military bases, in units that are completely composed of Cubans in Venezuelan uniforms. Estimates say that there may be 20 to 30 thousand Cuban troops in Venezuela, in Venezuelan uniforms, with weapons and ammo. There are also about 300 Cuban officers in leading positions in the army, according to reports that date from 2010.

Possible Development

At some point the lie will become unsustainable. There are essentially two different scenarios. Either the chavista supporters get fed up with Cuba and Maduro, and take to the streets, with or without militia violence. This would be an internal falling apart of the chavista unity. Or else, the patriots from both sides unite against the traitors, and try to throw out the Cubans and their puppet regime. This second option would clearly be better for the nation, and in my opinion is the more likely scenario.

As you will have realized, the Cuban preparation for this battle has been to station troops and material in Venezuela, so that they can fight the war appearing to be the Venezuelan army. Their hope is that it will enable them to claim that it is a civil war, and make believe that Havana has nothing to do with it. They will say that the Venezuelans are “American insurgents”, and that the Cubans are “Venezuelans defending their country”.

The Venezuelans may be left with no other choice than to fight as irregular forces, in a liberation army, although parts of the regular Venezuelan military may be available to them as well. The crucial issue is how big part of the armed forces will believe in the Cuban propaganda and side with the enemy, and how big part will understand the true nature of the conflict and fight with the patriots.

As for reinforcements, Cuba has no close ally that borders with Venezuela. Ecuador is on the other side of Colombia. The route over the Caribbean Sea is visible to US Navy and Air Force. However, the Cubans will claim that their “ally” needs and deserves help, and the Russian fleet may back them up, and along with China veto any effort to block transports to Venezuela.

What this means is that the Venezuelan people have to take an active part in this, to bring about a swift and decisive victory, because if they don’t, Cuba, China, and Russia will soon make sure that Venezuelan sovereignty becomes a thing of the past.

Ulf Erlingsson

Purpose

This blog was originally set up to inform about the events of the political crisis in Honduras 2009, and that information can still be found in the archives. The content gradually shifted to debate reforms aimed at increasing democracy under the rule of law, and thus raise the standard of living for all in the country. Among the crucial factors for sustainable development we find science. It is maintained by Ulf Erlingsson, D.Sc.