Novelty Theory and the Singularity of Dec. 21, 2012

I've gotten a lot of response to my "We've got less than 12
years left... ;^) " line in my .sig, and I've not really been doing it justice
in the quick replies I've been giving, so here's a more detailed explanation:

Technology, population, speed of travel, food and materials
production, communications capabilities, computing power, the decrease in
computer size, amount of information known to humanity, and a gamut of other
things, are all increasing at an accelerating rate. That is, they are
increasing, and the rate at which they are increasing is increasing.

Some mathematicians plotted the asymptotic graphs of all of humanity's
technological developments and projected them out to the point where they all,
relatively simultaneously, hit infinity. The day that they arrived at is
December 21st, 2012. One projected date of "The Singularity." That's the day
that some say is when everything as we know it will...change. Drastically.

Now I realize that this is a mathematical model, and that things never
seem to happen on time, but as a good thumbnail reference point, it makes a
convenient time to aim for. There are other models, other calculations, and
other dates. The idea is more important than the specific date, IMO.

Essentially, if we take a look at some of the really species-changing
events in our history, we see 3 really MAJOR developments that changed the
entire course of human history. 1) The Agricultural Revolution. 2) The
Industrial Revolution. 3) The Information Revolution.

30,000 years ago, we learned how to farm. 350 years ago, we learned
how to mass-produce machines. About 50 years ago, we learned how to build
computers. As you can see, the _rate_ of change is increasing, as is the
ability afforded by the change. With computers, we have the ability to build
more efficient things, fly planes and spaceships, educate more people, etc.
Each of these enabling technologies will build further development, and at
a faster rate.

According to the mathematical model, we should see approximately *61*
more of these species-changing developments before 12/21/2012! All of the same
magnitude as the three noted above! Again, it's only a model, but they predict
18 of those changes on the last day, and 13 of _those_ to happen in the last
FRACTION OF A SECOND, as things accelerate towards that infinity point.

Near as I can figure, that's going to have to do with massive amounts
of overlapping and interlocking technologies. For example: Nano-technology
producing microscopic computers (that are millions of times faster and more
powerful than the supercomputers of today) which sit inside of your cells
getting rid of disease and making sure you have a proper nutritional balance,
so that you can live longer. And nano-machines that make just about anything
and can do it for free by re-arranging the atoms from waste products
elsewhere. Or space technologies, which enable further population growth, and
zero-gravity research, and practically unlimited energy and material resources
from space. These may eventually lead to things like fusion power, faster than
light travel, and/or teleportation technologies. While these are currently
beyond the scope of our present tech, they may come about someday, and each
new technology provides a stepping-stone for future development. There's no
doubt that any of the above-named developments would change the course of our
evolution drastically. Much as did the Agriculture, Industry, and Computer
Ages.

Please Note: Terence passed away recently. On April 3rd, 2000. He will be
sorely missed. More informaion is available here. Fare well, Terence! May
your future journeys bring you new adventures untold...