Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2011-12 season in May, 2012. (includes results from January 2-15, 2012):

Program

Status

Renew/ Cancel Index

Nikita (F)

0.63

Supernatural (F)

0.87

The Secret Circle

0.92

One Tree Hill

final season

1.04

Vampire Diaries

1.56

Gossip Girl

**

Hart Of Dixie

**

90210

**

Ringer

**

-Gossip Girl's ratings hit a series low 0.6 adults 18-49 rating in its third episode this season, and have managed a 0.7 only twice since then. It remains the CW's lowest rated Monday-Thursday show.

While it clung to the bottom of the "toss up" range most of the Fall season, "lowest rated non-Friday show" is not typically a motto for renewal (unless you're The Good Wife!) With Monday's ratings, I expect it to be more likely canceled than renewed in next week's post.

Note: Monday's episode of Gossip Girl, and Tuesday's of 90210 are not yet reflected in the table above, which has results only through January 15.

*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule, and are grouped at the top of the table.

** shows that have not yet aired new episodes in 2012 have their Fall 2011 predictions listed instead.

Notes:

- certain to be cancelled by May, 2012

:cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2012

- toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2012

- more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2012

- certain to be renewed by May, 2012

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.