Two key long-term energy trends are shifting the strategic balance between the United States and China, the world’s superpower rivals in the 21st century: first, a domestic boom in U.S. shale oil and gas dramatically boosting America’s energy security; second, the frenetic and successful search for hydrocarbons in Africa making it an increasingly crucial element in China’s energy diversification strategy.

The Spratly Islands disputes are the nexus of interests and clashes for U.S. partners and competitors that will draw in the United States as it involves itself more in Asia-Pacific issues. This analysis may help readers to better understand these disputes and how the United States may better address them.

Are U.S. information operations and strategic communications fit for purpose? This issue is debated herein, and the author concludes that, if the United States is to compete with emerging powers such as China and Russia, it needs to significantly modernize and update information operations and strategic communications. But, despite what critics and even Congress may say, these important programs must not be cut.

In 2012, Mali simultaneously faced a military coup, a Tuareg nationalist movement, al-Qaeda in the Islamic Magreb control in the north, and a drought-fueled humanitarian emergency. Military intervention restored security; addressing the underlying factors of the crisis is key to achieving long-term stability.

After years as the world’s prime example of a failed state—one that gave rise to catastrophic humanitarian crises, a wave of maritime piracy, and Islamist militancy, including an al-Qaeda-linked insurgency that came close to toppling the internationally-recognized government—Somalia appears to be turning the corner. In this provocative monograph, Dr. Pham argues that there are indeed lessons to be learned from the insurgency and counterinsurgency in Somalia, but they are not the ones usually advanced by diplomats and soldiers.

Both Georgia and Kyrgyzstan offer important guidelines for conducting successful police reform in a former Soviet state, advice that could be helpful to the Middle Eastern states currently undergoing rapid political transformation.

The papers collected here offer assessments of Sino-Russian rivalry, the U.S.-Russian rivalry, and a neglected but critical topic, Chinese military capability for action in Central Asia. All of these issues are essential for any informed analysis of the future of Central Asian security, as well as relations among the great powers in Central Asia.

In a time of extraordinary fiscal and national security uncertainty, it seems naïve to assume that all, or even most, of a strategic leader’s current assumptions will be just as relevant several years into the future. This monograph highlights the need for Army senior leaders, in the midst of change, to periodically question their deep-seated beliefs on critical issues—and perhaps change their minds—rather than relying solely on what they have long believed to be true.

Issues associated with U.S. grand strategy were discussed on November 8-9, 2011, at the National Defense University symposium, "Forging an American Grand Strategy: Securing a Path Through a Complex Future." This volume includes several presentations from the event.

NATO's ballistic missile defense initiative remains a work in progress, but a lack of interceptor and sensor contributions on the part of the European allies is likely to have significant implications for the U.S. Army. In particular, the U.S. Army is likely to face increased manpower demands, materiel requirements, and training needs in order to meet the demand signal created by the NATO ballistic missile defense program.

The authors examine the utility of the U.S. Government’s whole-of-government (WoG) approach for responding to the challenging security demands of operations in Iraq and Afghanistan. They specifically discuss the strategic objectives of interagency cooperation particularly in the areas of peacebuilding and conflict management.

In the 21st century, the transatlantic bargain that has framed the relationship between the United States and its NATO allies is under more scrutiny than ever before. The bargain was a Cold War construct suited to its time; what is required now is a transatlantic bargain that generates a new culture of transatlantic partnership between the United States, NATO, and the European Union.

Drones have become an important part of the U.S. counterinsurgency and counterterrorism arsenal. But the available evidence shows that they are not always effective, and their use can have unpredictable consequences.

With a shift in focus and priority from likely involvement in large-scale counterinsurgency operations, the limited likelihood of continental traditional warfighting operations, together with the onset of an era of budgetary austerity, the U.S. Army may need to give greater attention to its role in responding to the many nontraditional threats to the peace and security of the United States. Of these, the illicit trade in drugs ranks highly because of its massive effects on human, national, and international security.

This monograph critically examines the Department of Defense Strategy for Operating in Cyberspace, which was published in July 2011. What are the messages conveyed, and is the Strategy adequate to maintain U.S. superiority in the face of existing and future cyber threats?

If transparency and forthright communication are valued within the Army, why is candor nearly absent in doctrine and supporting literature? Stewards of the Profession build trust through authentic communication—educated, trained, and modeled in application. Candor cannot be muted, creating a chasm between what is espoused and communicated.

America’s small NATO allies have unique views concerning international threats. This monograph explores the security environment of the three Baltic States and how the Baltic policymakers see the future of their relationship with NATO and the United States in an uncertain world.

For several years, the Strategic Studies Institute has annually published the Key Strategic Issues List (KSIL). The overall purpose of this document is to make students and other researchers aware of strategic topics that are of special interest to the U.S. Army. Part I of KSIL is entitled "Army
Priorities for Strategic Analysis" (APSA) and is a list of high-priority topics submitted by Headquarters, Department of the Army. Part II is entitled "Command Sponsored Topics" and represents the high-priority command-specific topics submitted by MACOMs and ASCCs. This KSIL provides military and civilian researchers worldwide a listing of the Army's most critical national security issues.

The political economy problems of Nigeria, the root cause for ethnic, religious, political and economic strife, can be in part addressed indirectly through focused contributions by the U.S. military, especially if regionally aligned units are more thoroughly employed.

The authors provide an analysis of cartel car bombing incidents in Mexico, with about 20 incidents identified over the last 2 1/2 years. Use patterns are discussed, along with future car bombing potentials in Mexico and the United States.

Small NATO allies have become important players in multinational operations. This monograph helps U.S. policymakers and military leaders understand the problems that small allies face when they participate in U.S.-led operations.

Created in 2007, the new U.S. Africa Command (AFRICOM) has matured greatly over the last 5 years, overcoming much of the initial resistance from African stakeholders and the U.S. interagency about a “militarization” of U.S. foreign policy in Africa. This Letort Paper describes the geostrategic, operational, and intellectual changes that explain why AFRICOM was created, debunks three negative myths about AFRICOM’s current operations, and raises five issues important to AFRICOM’s future, including the need to carry out a “right-sizing” exercise at AFRICOM during a time of severe budget constraints and a real risk for the United States of “strategic insolvency.”

What do China’s Cultural Revolution, a coup in French Algeria, the fall of the Soviet Union, and the changing nature of the Pakistani government have in common? All represent situations when the respective governments came close to losing control of their nuclear arsenals during political crises. This volume reveals previously unknown details about the four cases and offers additional analysis and lessons learned by leading scholars.

The current military retirement system has been integral to sustaining the All Volunteer Force. Current federal budget challenges have raised concern that this program may become fiscally unsustainable.

Russia is intensifying its engagement with Southern Africa to meet both foreign policy and long-term economic objectives. This presents both potential opportunities and challenges for U.S. policy in the region - especially in those states where a preference for U.S. presence and influence is not axiomatic.

Examining strategic planning by seven Chairmen Joint Chiefs of Staff over the past 2 decades provides insights on how these leaders addressed global challenges and made decisions. As such, this Paper provides an historic perspective in identifying key strategic planning legacies, while providing a contemporary focus for describing the current planning system's processes and products with greater fidelity.

How does al-Qaeda's regional and international terrorist acts compare with those of the al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP), particularly in Yemen? Although Yemen's new reform government defeated AQAP and recaptured areas lost to AQAP in 2012, the terrorists remain an extremely dangerous force seeking to reassert themselves at this time of transition in Yemen.

The existence of Nigeria as a unified state is in jeopardy. To counter this, the United States should better support Nigeria through some practical steps and thereby significantly advance both countries’ interests.

Operation ODYSSEY DAWN was the most recent in a long list of foreign interventions by the U.S. military. Difficult as such operations may be, the need for them remains a constant in international security. The author considers how to mount such interventions effectively without getting bogged down in protracted occupations that are costly in blood in and treasure.

For the first time in modern history, the entire Balkan Peninsula has the opportunity to be included under one security and developmental umbrella combining NATO and the European Union. Unfortunately, this historic vision is being undermined by a plethora of political, social, economic, ethnic, and national disputes and the shortcomings of Western institutions in eliminating potential security challenges.

The U.S.-China power transition has become a defining factor in the Asia-Pacific, conditioning the calculation of policy among the Asia-Pacific nations. A rising China brings mixed blessings—opportunities for development, but risks for conflict.

International criminal networks—some with links to terrorism—represent an existential threat to democratic governance of already fragile states in West Africa, and are using drugs to buy political power, fray West Africa’s traditional social fabric, and create a public health crisis. Drug trafficking represents the most serious challenge to human security in the region since resource conflicts rocked several West African countries in the early 1990s; international aid to the subregion’s “war on drugs” is only in an initial stage, and progress will be have to be measured in decades, not years.

Home to the largest functional military barrier in the world, the Western Sahara has a long history of colonial conquest and resistance, guerrilla warfare and counterinsurgency, and evolving strategic thought. This monograph explores the past, present, and future of the region, including its relationship to developments in Morocco, Algeria, and elsewhere in North Africa.

This book is a follow-on to our earlier book published in 2011 and represents a detailed look at various aspects of cyber security. The chapters herein provide an integrated framework and a comprehensive view of the various forms of cyber infrastructure protection.

Sharing Power examines alternative U.S. grand strategies. It argues that, while retrenchment is prudent, new strategies will also have to cope with dilemmas that can be mitigated but cannot be avoided.

This monograph, completed in August 2012, analyzes the developments in Egypt from January 2011 to August 2012 and addresses the following questions that are pertinent to U.S. policymakers: How does the United States maintain good relations and preserve its strategic partnership with Egypt under Cairo’s new political leadership and the changing political environment in the country? How does it do so while adhering to American values such as supporting democracy even when those coming to power do not share U.S. strategic goals?

Cyber is now recognized as an operational domain, but the theory that should explain it strategically is very largely missing. As the military establishment accepted the revolution in military affairs as the big organizing idea of the 1990s, then moved on to transformation in the early-2000s, so the third really big idea of the post-Cold War Era began to secure traction—cyber. However, it is one thing to know how to digitize; it is quite another to understand what digitization means strategically. With respect to cyber power, Dr. Colin Gray poses and seeks to answer the most basic of the strategist’s questions, “So what?”

African Regional Economic Communities (RECs) are increasingly proving their ability and willingness to unite to halt and prevent conflict and to further regional economic and political objectives. USAFRICOM is uniquely positioned to strengthen REC capacity as a first step in a longer-term Pan-African integration process for enhanced continental stability and security.

Western thinking on counterinsurgency seems to be that success in countering insurgencies depends on a perception of legitimacy among local populations. However, it may be more correct to consider the identity of who governs, rather than on how whoever governs governs.

The gap between the U.S. military’s self-image and its image in the eyes of an international military audience is examined. When considering U.S. power, do response patterns indicate great difference between how U.S. military officers view themselves and how they are viewed by their international peers? If so, is there anything that the United States can do about it, or does a fundamental and pathological anti-Americanism predetermine outcomes?