SmartMoney Strategy Plays

Long time lurker, first time poster. I have been a gambler for the past 5 years and know the importance of staying disciplined and not veering from the strategy. I have been watching the NBA for the first couple weeks and finally ready to jump into the action. I know Russell has a similar thread going and that has somewhat inspired me because I have a similar strategy and that is to only bet a maximum of 2 games per day each for 1 unit. Now I just withdrew $1,500 from the MLB season and I am starting my bankroll small with $200 for the NBA season.

1 unit = 10% of bankroll ( so this will vary as the season goes on) the reason for 10% is because if you win you will continually win more but if you lose you wont lose as much as you would if you had a fixed dollar amount.

Similar to Russell if I get 4 wins in a week I will stop and wait for the next week, so the goal being to have the weekend off that would mean I had a good week.

Was a great spot for Detroit coming home after a big road trip and OKC coming off back-to-back. Pistons should have won the game outright but it doesn't matter to me. Will be back tomorrow for another pick, anxious to see the line for the Pacers Raptors game. Toronto should be exhausted going into triple overtime..

Going to pass on the Pacers game, that line is to high for the Pacers even if the Raps are coming off a triple overtime back to back. There could potentially be a backdoor cover in that one.

My play for the day is going to be...

Knicks -6 1/2 (-110)

Knicks are one of the best looking teams in basketball so far to start the season and I believe they'll show it again tonight against a Magic team that appears to be going in the opposite direction. This one has potential to get ugly relatively quickly.

Looking into playing the Hornets tomorrow they have a pretty respectable track record against Houston granted that doesn't mean a whole lot as both of these teams went through a makeover. Apart from their loss to Philly they have held their own. Not an official play but that is my initial lean, also looking at the Pacers Bucks game.

Alright fellas have been looking at games all morning and the Hornets keep jumping at the page. They have a solid defense, just got Anthony Davis back from his concussion. The Rockets meanwhile havent had the jump in their step since opening up agains the Pistons and Hawks. Harden has cooled down quite a bit, Lin has just been average at best and completely air-balled a three the other night which would have given them the tie. I just don't trust the Rockets in this situation. If you throw out the horrendous game against the 76ers the Hornets have kept every game close if not won, and the game against Philly was without Davis. Also if you look at trends meanwhile Hornets have a pretty solid reputation against the Rockets. New Orleans should at least be able to keep this came close if not come out with a win in the end.

good stuff on the hornets...was initially leaning towards the rockets, but I think I agree with you on the hornets...i'm also really liking bucks -4 at home against a terrible pacers team (and even more terrible on the road)....also feeling good about mem +5.5 at okc....mem always plays okc tough...and that's when they had harden...mem front court should do well against okc...they may even win outright

Bob.. it was a tossup between the Bucks and the Hornets decided I liked the Hornets a little better, but I do believe the Bucks win that one decisively, Pacers quite frankly suck without Granger. Fun fact about the Mem/Okc series the away team is 4-0 ATS the last 4 meetings. I don't trust OKC yet I think they still have some kinks to work out so I would lean Grizz in that one as well.

Also debated taking the Clips at home but I hate betting on the nationally televised games where everyone and their dogs bet on. Usually like to sit back and watch those games and try and seek out the better games from a gamblers standpoint. But if I did play tonights game I think the edge goes to LA at home they dominate good teams at the Staples Center.