June 01, 2017

Those terribly awkward 18 seconds

U.S. Assistant Secretary of State Stuart Jones’ awkwardly long—18 seconds—silence while responding a reporter’s question about democracy in Saudi Arabia versus Iran has drawn considerable interest.

At some level one empathizes Jones’ plight in trying to offer even a remotely persuasive answer to this question from the journalist: “While you were over there, the secretary criticized the conduct of the Iranian elections and Iran’s record on democracy. He did so standing next to Saudi officials. How do you characterize Saudi Arabia’s commitment to democracy, and does the administration believe that democracy is a buffer or a barrier against extremism?”

The honest answer would have been to say that because we are hypocritical here. But since that is not diplomatese for a career diplomat to say so he had lapse into that painful pause before saying this:

“I think what we would say is that at this meeting we were able to, err, make significant progress with Saudi and GCC [Gulf Cooperation Council] partners in both making a strong statement against extremism and also, and also putting err… putting in place certain measures through this GCC mechanism where we can combat extremism.

Clearly one source of extremism — one source — one terrorism threat is coming from Iran. And that’s coming from a part of the Iranian apparatus that is not at all responsive to its electorate.”

That was as good a save as anyone could have come up with under the circumstances although it was not a save at all. While watching the clip I was reminded of precisely the same theme I had addressed in my post on May 22 in the midst President Donald Trump’s unusually sanguine recent visit to Saudi Arabia. I wrote the following. I republish it only to illustrate how those who follow such affairs see through it.

May 22, 2017

If I were Iran’s President Hassan Rouhani, I would be considerably piqued watching the event helmed by President Donald Trump and Saudi Arabia’s King Salman bin Abdulaziz Al-Saud in Riyadh.

I would think of how more than 40 million fellow Iranians, some 70% of the eligible voters, voted in the just concluded presidential election, setting a new record. And yet "the leader of the free world" runs down Iran standing in Saudi Arabia which barely allows municipal elections. Women got their right to vote there only in December, 2015. Women have been voting in Iran since 1963. And yes, women drive in Iran unlike Saudi Arabia. They also work in various capacities throughout Iran.

If the new approach in Washington towards foreign policy in general and the Middle East policy in particular is one of wide-eyed realism rather than some idealistic fantasies borne of Jeffersonian nobility, then the Trump Administration should recognize the reality of a relative moderate in Rouhani being returned to power in Iran by an impressive majority, including by millions under 30. A realistic approach is also necessarily relativistic. From that standpoint Iran clearly does better than Saudi Arabia when it comes to electoral democracy and women’s rights. I concede that the bar there is rather low, if not non-existent altogether.

Of course, what is really at play here is a numbers game and oil-fueled geopolitics. Of the 1.6 billion Muslims in the world Sunni Muslims constitute between 87 and 90 percent while Shia Muslims only between 10 and 13 percent. That would be over 1.3 billion Sunnis compared to about 200 million Shias. Of those 200 million, 80 million live in Iran, the home of Shia Islam. Most of the other Shias live in just three other countries apart from Iran—Pakistan, India and Iraq.

They neither have the demographic nor geopolitical heft or spread to be counted for any significance other than their apparent nuisance value. In contrast, Sunni Muslims are across the world even though some 60% live in Asia. Interestingly, the Middle East and North Africa account for only 20% of the global Muslim population. Purely as a point of reference, a vast majority of terrorist groups profess an extreme version of Islam to be their inspiration to do what they do. Iran’s reach via its much talked about extremist arms, while often deadly, is nowhere as widespread as the groups swearing by Sunni tenets of Islam.

I say all this to give it a wider context to why the people of Iran, inheritors of a great ancient civilization, could feel befuddled and annoyed when America props up Saudi Arabia with various forms of support, including arms, even while lecturing them about democracy and women’s rights. To reiterate, I am making my point within a relativistic framework. There is no perfect home to democracy and human rights in the world because there are no perfect democracy and human rights.

His speech to the heads of state of 50 Islamic countries in Riyadh yesterday President Donald Trump said, "We are not here to lecture — we are not here to tell other people how to live, what to do, who to be, or how to worship. Instead, we are here to offer partnership — based on shared interests and values — to pursue a better future for us all."

It would be incongruous to say the least not to extend the same pragmatic courtesy to Iran with all its imperfections even while extending it to Saudi Arabia with its many more imperfections, many of them just cruelly so.

Comments

U.S. Assistant Secretary of State Stuart Jones’ awkwardly long—18 seconds—silence while responding a reporter’s question about democracy in Saudi Arabia versus Iran has drawn considerable interest.

At some level one empathizes Jones’ plight in trying to offer even a remotely persuasive answer to this question from the journalist: “While you were over there, the secretary criticized the conduct of the Iranian elections and Iran’s record on democracy. He did so standing next to Saudi officials. How do you characterize Saudi Arabia’s commitment to democracy, and does the administration believe that democracy is a buffer or a barrier against extremism?”

The honest answer would have been to say that because we are hypocritical here. But since that is not diplomatese for a career diplomat to say so he had lapse into that painful pause before saying this:

“I think what we would say is that at this meeting we were able to, err, make significant progress with Saudi and GCC [Gulf Cooperation Council] partners in both making a strong statement against extremism and also, and also putting err… putting in place certain measures through this GCC mechanism where we can combat extremism.

Clearly one source of extremism — one source — one terrorism threat is coming from Iran. And that’s coming from a part of the Iranian apparatus that is not at all responsive to its electorate.”

That was as good a save as anyone could have come up with under the circumstances although it was not a save at all. While watching the clip I was reminded of precisely the same theme I had addressed in my post on May 22 in the midst President Donald Trump’s unusually sanguine recent visit to Saudi Arabia. I wrote the following. I republish it only to illustrate how those who follow such affairs see through it.

May 22, 2017

If I were Iran’s President Hassan Rouhani, I would be considerably piqued watching the event helmed by President Donald Trump and Saudi Arabia’s King Salman bin Abdulaziz Al-Saud in Riyadh.

I would think of how more than 40 million fellow Iranians, some 70% of the eligible voters, voted in the just concluded presidential election, setting a new record. And yet "the leader of the free world" runs down Iran standing in Saudi Arabia which barely allows municipal elections. Women got their right to vote there only in December, 2015. Women have been voting in Iran since 1963. And yes, women drive in Iran unlike Saudi Arabia. They also work in various capacities throughout Iran.

If the new approach in Washington towards foreign policy in general and the Middle East policy in particular is one of wide-eyed realism rather than some idealistic fantasies borne of Jeffersonian nobility, then the Trump Administration should recognize the reality of a relative moderate in Rouhani being returned to power in Iran by an impressive majority, including by millions under 30. A realistic approach is also necessarily relativistic. From that standpoint Iran clearly does better than Saudi Arabia when it comes to electoral democracy and women’s rights. I concede that the bar there is rather low, if not non-existent altogether.

Of course, what is really at play here is a numbers game and oil-fueled geopolitics. Of the 1.6 billion Muslims in the world Sunni Muslims constitute between 87 and 90 percent while Shia Muslims only between 10 and 13 percent. That would be over 1.3 billion Sunnis compared to about 200 million Shias. Of those 200 million, 80 million live in Iran, the home of Shia Islam. Most of the other Shias live in just three other countries apart from Iran—Pakistan, India and Iraq.

They neither have the demographic nor geopolitical heft or spread to be counted for any significance other than their apparent nuisance value. In contrast, Sunni Muslims are across the world even though some 60% live in Asia. Interestingly, the Middle East and North Africa account for only 20% of the global Muslim population. Purely as a point of reference, a vast majority of terrorist groups profess an extreme version of Islam to be their inspiration to do what they do. Iran’s reach via its much talked about extremist arms, while often deadly, is nowhere as widespread as the groups swearing by Sunni tenets of Islam.

I say all this to give it a wider context to why the people of Iran, inheritors of a great ancient civilization, could feel befuddled and annoyed when America props up Saudi Arabia with various forms of support, including arms, even while lecturing them about democracy and women’s rights. To reiterate, I am making my point within a relativistic framework. There is no perfect home to democracy and human rights in the world because there are no perfect democracy and human rights.

His speech to the heads of state of 50 Islamic countries in Riyadh yesterday President Donald Trump said, "We are not here to lecture — we are not here to tell other people how to live, what to do, who to be, or how to worship. Instead, we are here to offer partnership — based on shared interests and values — to pursue a better future for us all."

It would be incongruous to say the least not to extend the same pragmatic courtesy to Iran with all its imperfections even while extending it to Saudi Arabia with its many more imperfections, many of them just cruelly so.