Twins ship Hardy to Baltimore

Back in
September, in a conversation I had with a Twins official, it became apparent
that J.J. Hardy was not in the team’s long-term plans. In not so many words, I
was told that the Twins did not have the desire to extend him past his 2011
expiration with the team. Still, I was
hopeful that his above-average
defense and his terrific
second-half at the plate was going to be enough to convince the
decisionmakers that keeping Hardy, in spite of a nominal increase in his salary,
would be the right choice. After all, as I outlined
last March, Hardy’s defense would help solidify a spot where the team had
troubles dating back to ’07.

Nevertheless,
the team continued to cite speed as their main need in 2011 and often dropped
Hardy as an example for an area where the team can improve. In November, Ron
Gardenhire lamented about his need for more speed. On 1500ESPN radio with
Reusse & Mackey, the manager
targeted Hardy specifically:

"We all know Hardy doesn't
run like he used to, and when you're talking about injecting speed, there [are]
only a few places that you can do that, and shortstop is one of them. We like
Hardy a lot. He's a great guy, great teammate, and we believe when he's healthy
he's solid at shortstop. But when you start looking at speed and everything,
and other options, that's one of the areas we're going to look at options at
and see if we can find more speed -- a little more versatility out there. So
we're looking, and not to say we don't want Hardy back, but we're just trying
to make our ballclub better."

But there
appeared to be more to targeting Hardy than simply his speed, which Bill
Smith cited as the main impetus for this transaction. In addition to his
lack of foot speed, according to some reports the Twins were less than
impressed by Hardy’s rehabilitation process. On several occasions, Hardy would
have waited until the last minute to inform the manager that he was not able to
play, ultimately irritating Gardenhire and leaving him needing to make an
unexpected adjustment to his lineup card.

So the Twins
place him on the shopping block.

After some
interest from the Pittsburgh Pirates and Baltimore Orioles along with openings
in San Diego, San Francisco and St Louis, it appeared to be a very favorable
market for the Twins to dangle Hardy in the water. In the end, the Twins
reached an agreement with the Orioles to send Hardy, Brendan Harris and his
deadweight plus $500,000 (likely to offset Harris’s contract) in exchange for
two minor league relief arms in James Hoey and Brett Jacobson.

Unlike most of the arms in the system, the big-bodied Hoey (6’6”, 200 pounds) and the equally sizeable Jacobson (6’6”, 205 pounds) can throw heat and have exercised impressive strikeout rates (26.8% K% for Hoey, 21.7% for Jacobson). Hoey and
Jacobson are not your prototypical Twins’ spot-hitter.

The
28-year-old Hoey, with his power arm, was once viewed as a potential closer. In
the past, when other teams inquired about Hoey’s availability, the Orioles
would tell them that he
was not available under any condition. However, in 2004 he required Tommy John
surgery that took him out of play for much of that season and the next. Prior
to the 2008 season, Baseball Prospectus did not have too many favorable things
to say about him aside from his triple-digit heat:

“Hoey came
back from TJ surgery a couple of years ago and has since teased the Orioles
with minor league dominance and major league submissiveness. He’s a one-pitch
guy, that pitch being a fastball that can reach 1000 on a kind gun but that
lacks movement. It doesn’t help that he’s been a lot worse from the stretch,
but it does account somewhat for the gap between his major and minor league
performances; once runner start reaching base against him, the boulder starts
rolling downhill.”

After that,
he fell off of the prospect radar as Hoey once again needed major surgery, this
time to repair a torn labrum in his shoulder. In 2009, Hoey returned and, like
most labrum surgery recipients, indicating that his experience that season was
viewed as rehab. He spent the entire year at AA, working 48 innings and posting
a 47-to-32 strikeouts-to-walk ratio. This past
season, Hoey worked in both AA and AAA, regaining his velocity while attempting
to harness his command better. In 52.2 innings, he allowed just 37 hits while
striking out 70 and walking a robust 34.If the Twins can assist him in
improving his control, Hoey has the potential to be a very strong relief arm, with
the potential contributing immediately.

Meanwhile, Jacobson,
24, who was originally drafted by Detroit in 2008 but sent to Baltimore for
Aubrey Huff in 2009, had just finished his second consecutive season in High-A.
While his age at that level would raise some eyebrows, Baltimore had Jacobson
repeat High-A because what they viewed as Detroit mishandling him. The Tigers
have an infatuation with fireballers – and Jacobson can dish up some gas to be
sure – however, the Orioles wanted him to have strong secondary pitches to avoid
being a one-pitch guy:

"With the Tigers, I threw mostly fastballs. I've pitched
just once here, but I've noticed the Orioles have a different approach. I
didn't get much of a chance to work on my off speed stuff with the Tigers. But
I threw my off speed here, which is good for me because that's what I need to
work on."

In addition
to his repertoire, judging from his Cape Cod League video,
Jacobson had see-saw shoulders in his mechanics – first down, then back up and
then down again – which is a waste of movement. (For comparison, watch Kevin Slowey’s shoulders in
this video.) For the most part, you want this level. Depending on either the
Tigers’ or Orioles’ minor league approach, either team would have attempted to smooth
out. There are
clear signs of someone attempting to working on a new pitch or making
mechanical adjustments. After tossing just three wild pitches and hitting one
batter in his first 84.1 innings of work in the Tigers system, Jacobson has
since drilled six batters and uncorked 14 wild pitches in his last 81 innings
of work with the Orioles. If the Twins can accelerate Jacobson’s development in
this department, he could possibly be pitching in a Minnesota uniform in a year
or two.

Moreover, in
addition to the two power relief arms, the Twins also have appropriated
approximately $8.5 million (after shipping Brendan Harris and his $1.75 million
along with $500,000 to the Orioles) to spend this winter. Of course, while it
seems like a substantial among of savings, it is likely earmarked to retain
Carl Pavano and potentially add another bullpen arm.

Given the market
for shortstops and the morose quality of shortstops available coupled with Hardy’s
potential as a starter, the Twins return-on-investment obviously came as a
disappointment. One would think, given the circumstances, the Twins would have
been able to extract something useful in the present, not just iffy hard-throwers
(as Dan
Wade pointed out, neither pitcher was a part of prospect maven Kevin
Goldstein’s Top 20 of the Orioles’ system). Personally, I
cannot overstate how much more valuable a starting shortstop can be in
comparison to a pair of bullpen arms. On the other hand, if Hoey and Jacobson
can indeed develop into quality relievers, they could have cost-effective
method to stabilize the relief staff for several years instead of having to
repurchase expensive free agent arms.

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"Parker Hageman is the Michael Cuddyer of Twins bloggers -- not the flashiest guy out there, but a solid everyday player. Hageman produces spot-on analysis ... relying on in-depth stats and lots of charts. He takes a sober, performance-based view of players, letting others fall for a player's heart or his leadership skills in the clubhouse. Hageman is one of the four pillars holding up the Star Tribune's TwinsCentric blog."