Friday 05-05-2017 Lookback

Passionate about the markets, the excitement, the story driving the markets at the time, the fundamentals and even the technicals.

Welcome to the easyMarkets weekly review where we look back over the results of some of the previous week’s economic indicators. It gives us the chance to reflect on how much expectations were met or missed and to examine a successful trade you could have made this week.

Event: New Zealand Employment (Q1 2017)

Date: Tuesday 02 May 2017 at 22:45 GMT

Markets affected: NZD/USD, NZD/JPY

Trending hashtags: #kiwi, #nzd

Employment data for New Zealand’s first quarter for this year came in better than forecasted with the jobless rate falling to 4.9%. Analysts were expecting it to hit 5.2% as it had for the previous quarter. Employment has risen 1.2% with 29,000 more jobs, also beating expectations. Migration and a growing economy are the backbone to the positive employment data which has seen those in work hitting a high of 70.6%. Wage growth is also expected to pick up following an increase in consumer price inflation and economic activity. The NZ dollar picked up 0.2% against the USD on the back of the positive data release.

Event: US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI

Date: Wednesday 03 May 2017 at 14:00 GMT

Markets affected: EUR/USD, GBP/USD

Trending hashtags: #usd, #pmi

The US Non-Manufacturing PMI came in at 57.5%, well above forecasts and the previous figure of 55.2%. The sector continues to grow with the 88th consecutive month of increases. New Orders came in 63.2%, also well above the previous month’s change of 58.9%. April also saw a faster rate of growth for the Prices Index which came in at 57.6% versus March’s 53.5% change.

Event: EIA Crude Oil stocks change

Date: Wednesday 03 May 2017 at 14:30 GMT

Markets affected: OIL/ USD, AUD/USD

Trending hashtags: #crudeoil, #wti

US crude oil stockpiles fell again last week to -0.930M. The week ending 28 April saw crude output not fall as much as expectations of -2.160M, and certainly nowhere near the previous week’s plunge of -3.641M. Oil prices fell following the data release which saw a smaller than anticipated fall in crude inventories coupled with weak demand for gas. WTI oil fell $0.18 to $47.48 a barrel while Brent crude fell $0.08 to $50.38 per barrel. Oil prices remain under pressure as all eyes turn to other oil producing countries to see if they are keeping to the production cuts laid out in a 2016 deal. Russia reduced output by 300,000 barrels per day while OPEC countries have met 90% of their production cut targets.

Event: US Jobless Claims

Date: Thursday 04 May 2017 at 12:30 GMT

Markets affected: EUR/USD, GBP/USD

Trending hashtags: #usd, #unemployment

The number of first-time applications filed by US citizens fell 19,000 for the week ended 28 April to 238,000 compared to 257,000 for the previous week before. This is the first fall after two weeks of increases, giving an overall figure of 1.96 million people claiming unemployment. On a year on year basis this is 8.1% less than 2016 showing an improving jobs market. Despite the economy growing at a slower rate for the first quarter of this year, the jobless rate fell to 4.5% in March – the lowest it’s been for almost 10 years.

If you had sold the OIL/USD with a $500 margin at the price of $48.10 per barrel and closed the deal after the crude oil stocks change on Wednesday at 14:30 GMT which saw the crude oil fall 5.8%, you might have multiplied your investment with a tidy $5,760 profit. Note this example does not take into account spread.

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