Lower wind speeds, although kinder to mammals, actually hasten heat loss from the lake “by moving the just-warmed air and replacing it with more cold air,” Winslow writes. “On the other hand, a strong wind mixes water layers and brings up more heat stored in the deeper water.”

Goff terms that record “very, very subjective,” due to inconsistencies collecting data.

“Back in the 1800s — is that some dude sitting in Battery Park with a pair of binoculars looking out there and making a judgement? To me, that’s subjective. You have to take it for what it’s worth,” Goff said.

The old 'normal'

Parker Wright, who works at the Fly Rod Shop in Stowe, is among those who are watching the lake intently.

His interests are practical. Wright has already led three ice-fishing tours elsewhere in the state, in shallower, smaller lakes.

"On Sunday, we were fishing at Lake Elmore, on nine or 10 inches of ice," Wright said.

Over the decades, he has developed a wait-and-see approach to planning excursions in deeper water.

Lake Champlain might be firming up a little faster than usual, he ventured: "We seem to be a little ahead of schedule, but that's on a curve of the last five or six years.

"The weather we're having now, historically, is generally normal for Vermont."

Meanwhile, anyone who is watching Lake Champlain can claim solid evidence of this week’s cooling trend, she added: witness the trails of “steam fog”or “sea smoke” — water vapor condensing as it meets cold — streaming across the surface.

“We’re actually watching the water evaporate,” Holloway said.

Contact Joel Banner Baird at 802-660-1843 or joelbaird@freepressmedia.com. Follow him on Twitter @VTgoingUp.