Spread & ATS Pick Ohio State vs Michigan State

Who else is looking forward to this Big Ten East Division matchup? The Week 11 college football spread favors No. 10 Ohio State by 3.5-points. If you are betting No. 18 Michigan State straight-up, then the moneyline pays +147. For over/under bets, the game total is 52-points.

Should you bet on Ohio State to beat Michigan State?

The Ohio State Buckeyes are 8-1 straight up and 5-1 in conference play. But against the spread the Buckeyes are a dismal 3-6 and when on the road Ohio State is 0-3 ATS.

So does that all add up to picking OSU over the Spartans? Not so fast.

Ohio State can’t lose in East Lansing. Since 1999, the Buckeyes are 6-0 SU at Spartan Stadium. OSU pulled out a one-point 17-16 win there in 2016. Plus last season the Buckeyes steamrolled the Spartans 42-3 in Columbus.

Moreover, Buckeye QB Dwayne Haskins is in line for a huge day. He has tossed for 400+ passing yards in three of his last four starts and now faces a Spartan defense that is ranked 11th in the Big Ten against the pass.

Should you bet on Michigan State over Ohio State?

The Michigan State Spartans are 6-3 straight up and 4-2 in conference play. Against the spread, the Spartans are 4-5. At home that ATS record is 1-4. Moreover, the Buckeyes have allowed a combined 80 points to Purdue and Nebraska in the last two weeks. Is that enough to warrant a bet on Michigan State to cover the 3.5-point spread as home underdogs?

Michigan State’s defense ranks 25th in the nation in yards per play against at 4.84. The Spartans’ run defense is formidable, allowing an FBS-low 71.67 rushing yards per game on a minuscule 2.53 yards per carry.

The Spartans may have won just three of the last seven meetings between the two. However, MSU wins when it counts including the 2013 Big Ten championship game.

ATS Pick Ohio State vs. Michigan State

There has been a dark cloud over Ohio State football program all season. Even the public is souring on the Buckeyes. That is the only explanation for a fantastic value on this spread. OSU’s defense hasn’t been able to limit explosive plays this season. Can the Michigan State offense exploit that? I’m not so sure.

Bet the Buckeyes against the spread as 3.5-point favorites. Ohio State won’t blow Michigan State out but will cover the betting spread.