TheHunterReport DFS Week 9 2016

By Dave Hunter

It’s starting to get ugly. I usually don’t have this sort of a poor run, but it’s been six weeks of not cashing in the DraftKings NFL Fantasy Football Millionaire [1M to 1st] contests. Sometimes I tend to over think and crunch the numbers too much, if that’s possible. I need to rely on my gut just a smidge more moving forward. How will I do that, without letting the numbers get in the way? It’s a fine mix, I tell ya, so I’ll try some things I haven’t done this season. For instance: I’m really thinking about swaying from my value-running back strategy. Usually, I load up on stud wide receivers in the process. It’s been a formula that’s worked decently for me in the past; I just can’t snag the “big” payout.

Week 8 results were quite yucky, as I finished 217,339 out of 221,913 totaling 85.62 points:

Position

Player; Team

% Draft

Fantasy Points

QB

Matt Ryan, ATL

13.1

24.42

RB

Lamar Miller, HOU

0.7

14.3

RB

Jacquizz Rodgers, TB

20.2

14.8

WR

Doug Baldwin, SEA

12.6

9.1

WR

Will Fuller, HOU

8.6

3.3

WR

T.Y. Hilton, IND

22.3

3

TE

Gary Barnidge, CLE

22.9

7.2

FLEX

Nelson Agholor, PHI

0.3

5.5

DST

Jets

8

4

Total

85.62

QUARTERBACK

Top LevelDrew Brees, NO @ San Francisco 49ers ($7,200) – Brees is not only a Top Level play in Week 9, he’s my favorite overall play regardless of salary. I’m ready to load a top notch QB into my lineup and find value at WR this week. Brees is averaging 44 passing attempts over seven contests this season – you have to dig that, right? Brees is going to throw a bunch against the 49ers, with the matchup very attractive.

Mid-RangeDak Prescott, DAL @ Cleveland Browns ($6,100) – Prescott is averaging 19.6 FPPG in 2016, which is extremely solid for the rookie youngster. We should see two scores from Prescott (rushing and/or passing), along with some good rushing yardage added into the mix. Prescott is a solid cash and tournament play in my book if you must save some dollars at the QB position.

ValueSam Bradford, MIN vs. Detroit Lions ($5,000) – Yeah, Bradford looked pretty awful on Monday Night Football against the Bears. I’m still quite bent over it, mainly since I got eliminated from my big Survivor League. Them-thar Vikings really ruffle my feathers – serves me right for picking a road team against a bitter divisional foe. Who’s the numbskull? Me. Still, I like Bradford to bounce back this week facing the Lions pass defense, so we should see him more than earn his $5K price tag.

Over-ValueDerek Carr, OAK vs. Denver Broncos ($6,300) – Carr has to have a letdown game after his 500-plus yardage passing day against the Buccaneers last week, right? Plus, you have to figure the Broncos will play stout defense, limiting Carr’s production. I’d rather spend down at the position if I’m not loading up on Drew Brees.

RUNNING BACK

Top LevelEzekiel Elliott, DAL @ Cleveland Browns ($7,900) – Is there anything this kid can’t do? With 949 combined rushing and receiving yards to go along with 5 TDs through seven games, Elliott is absolutely exceeding expectations. Love the matchup and expect at least one score, with about 150 yards combined. The Browns can’t stop Elliott, so go ahead and pay up for him in cash games.

Mid-RangeCarlos Hyde, SF vs. New Orleans Saints ($6,100) – I’m liking Hyde as an under-owned play this week, especially with some DFS owners probably shying away due to his injury situation. Strategy on Hyde for me includes cash and tournament lineup plays, although I prefer him just a bit more in tournaments.

ValueCharcandrick West, KC vs. Jacksonville Jaguars ($4,400) – Jamaal Charles is done for the year. Spencer Ware is fighting a concussion injury and may not play this week. What does that mean? We find automatic value in West at $4.4K. West is landing in most of my lineups this week, so it looks like I am going to get a value-play in there at RB. West is a nice cash and tournament play. The bad thing? He’ll probably be over-owned.

Over-ValueSpencer Ware, KC vs. Jacksonville Jaguars ($7,200) – I highly doubt Ware will be cleared to play this week with a concussion. Even if he is cleared, do you want to pay this kind of dough for him? I don’t. I’d much rather load up with Ezekiel Elliott or Le’Veon Bell for just a tad more salary.

WIDE RECEIVER

Top LevelOdell Beckham, Jr., NYG vs. Philadelphia Eagles ($8,800) – This isn’t one of Beckham’s better matchups of the season facing the Eagles and he’s fighting injury right now. There are other things going against Beckham as well, although I see him stepping up in a huge way facing his heavy rival in the Eagles. If you’re looking to spend up at WR, here you go. I’m fine using Beckham in any league format.

Other choices: None

Mid-RangeBrandin Cooks, NO @ San Francisco 49ers ($7,500) – Cooks is the perfect hook-up complement to Drew Brees, if you’re strategizing that way. I, myself, love the hook up when I can get the fit into my lineups. Cooks isn’t cheap, although he’s worth $7.5K. Cooks yardage totals haven’t been too consistent but he is finding a way to get into the end zone with three TDs over his last three games played.

ValueJordan Matthews, PHI @ New York Giants ($5,700) – I like Matthews so much this week I’m leaving him in this same exact spot as last week. You have to love the targets Matthews is getting, eh? He may not be racking up huge yardage totals, but when you get points for receptions it helps immensely. Matthews is a smart tournament play, mainly since I think he’ll be a bit under-owned… even with his 11 receptions in Week 8.

Over-ValueAntonio Brown, PIT @ Baltimore Ravens ($8,900) – Normally, I’d be Captain Obvious in suggesting Brown to start as a Top Level play this week, but without Big Ben Roethlisberger at the helm due to injury I’m not thrilled with the idea of paying almost $9K for the Steelers superstar wide out in Week 9. Go ahead and risk it if you want – I totally get it – just not my cup of tea this week in Brown.