It has been a dismal fall at America’s multiplexes. Aside from November releases American Gangster (Universal) with $126.2M domestic and Bee Movie (Dreamworks/Paramount) with $121.4M, most everything else has met with responses ranging from lukewarm to indifferent.

There have been a few upside surprises like This Christmas (Sony), which has a $43.5M take, and even Fred Claus (Warner Bros) has slowly crawled its way to $66.3M domestic, but, for the most part, high-end projects have crashed and burned. The Iraq War-inspired Lions For Lambs ($14.8M) and In the Valley of Ellah ($6.7M) were bombs, Mr. Magorium’s Wonder Emporium ($29.3M), Hitman ($25.9M), August Rush ($25.9M), Awake ($11.6M) and The Mist ($24.1M) were, at best, misfires, and even the big budget entry Beowulf ($77.4M) has been underwhelming.

The latest and most notable disaster is New Line’s The Golden Compass, which, despite a reported $200M budget, managed only a $25.7M opening weekend. It will be very difficult for the studio to make back its budget here, and the result could be the outer of New Line head Bob Shaye.

Finally, there’s a movie that America is clearly excited to see. I Am Legend (Warner Bros), based on the classic 50’s novel of the same name and later remade as The Omega Man will debut at 3,606 locations Friday, and industry tracking is pointed toward a monstrous opening. It’s hard to overstate the box office muscle of Will Smith. His last 6 major releases have reached $100M+.

Bourne Ultimatum opened to $69.2M on its opening weekend back in August, but it had the advantage of kids being out of school on Friday and less of a Sunday drop-off than December movies typically suffer. Given that, I’m calling for $58M-$61M, which would be the biggest opening weekend of Will’s meteoric career.

Fox’s Alvin in the Chipmuks will hit 3,475 locations this weekend, and the studio is hoping for today’s kids to show up along with parents looking for some nostalgia. Industry tracking is decent though not spectacular. I’m using 3 comparables for comparison’s sake â€“ Bee Movie, the Dreamworks animated film, with a $38 opening, the nostalgia-tinged Underdog ($11.5M opening) and the tween and teen geared Surf’s Up. ($17.7M opening) Alvin actually compares quite favorably, even to Bee Movie.

Based on those comparables, I’m calling for an upside surprise here, something in the $18M-$21M range, and don’t be surprise if it goes a bit higher.

The final new wide release is Perfect Holiday (Yari Film Group), another Christmas movie with a predominantly black cast including Terrence Howard, Queen Latifah and Gabriel Union. The film actually opened on Wednesday with an estimated gross of $385,000, and it has added another $266,000 Thursday. Based on those numbers, I’m projecting a 3-day in the $3M-$3.5M range and a 5-day of $4M-$4.5M.