If rumors are true, AMD may prep an FX CPU for launch in mid-2009. Whether or …

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If current rumors are true, AMD could be planning to relaunch its "FX" brand of Athlon/Phenom processors by mid-2009. In years past, FX was the designation AMD gave to the cutting-edge, high-premium CPUs and/or platforms it brought to market. If, for example, the most expensive standard Athlon 64 was a 2.4GHz part for $299, the corresponding FX CPU would be a 2.6GHz part at $999. At first, the FX chips consistently dominated their Intel counterparts, but as Santa Clara first regained competitive parity and then overtook AMD entirely, the FX series vanished from the smaller company's roadmap, and has never made an appearance on a Phenom-class processor. Now, however, there are rumors that AMD may revive the brand with Shanghai, and launch an FX part by the summer of 2009.

According to X-bit labs, AMD plans to release a quad-core Deneb FX CPU next summer at speeds greater than 3GHz. Deneb FX parts would be Socket AM3 CPUs with individual L2s and a single, shared L3, and would include support for both DDR2 (up to 1066MHz) and DDR3 (up to 1333MHz)—though not both on the same board. Socket AM3, by the way, is the name of AMD's new, DDR3 platform that's supposed to launch by the end of this year. Socket AM3 CPUs will be backwards compatible with Socket AM2 boards, but Socket AM2 chips are not compatible with Socket AM3 boards. If Shanghai lives up to its promise, this could be a pretty good deal, particularly for Athlon 64 owners who have no plans to upgrade to Phenom.

Let me say, however, that I'm highly dubious of this particular rumor. X-bit labs' Anton Shilov writes: "It is crucial for AMD to increase frequencies of the Deneb FX chips considerably in order to attract attention of performance enthusiasts, who can pay $1000 per CPU provided that they get unbeatable performance." I understand where Antov is going, here, but with all due respect, I think he has overestimated the performance jump Deneb can deliver over current Agena (Phenom X4) products. I'm also rather suspicious of any forward-looking performance claims coming out of AMD. Just over a year ago, AMD was showing off a 3GHz Phenom, with roadmaps that confidently predicted Phenom FX chips running at >3GHz clockspeeds by the fall of 2008. Instead, we're here with no Phenom FX at all, and a processor core stuck at 2.8GHz.

As far as performance is concerned, Shanghai will be doing well if it manages to match Penryn's clockspeed, scaling, and power consumption. Simply hitting that goal would put AMD back in the game; Nehalem may be getting a lot of press, but Intel is still going to ship an awful lot of Penryn microprocessors next year. In order to launch a competitive $1000 part, however, AMD would have to exceed both Penryn and Nehalem performance, and maintain that lead in the face of aggressive clockspeed scaling and price cuts from Intel.

Instead of killing itself trying, AMD would do better to focus on delivering CPUs that can realistically command (and hold) $149-249 price points. An FX part at a significantly lower price than what we saw in years past might also make sense, but any chip AMD might position in, say, a $499 "luxury" bracket is in danger of being immediately undercut by Intel. I agree with X-bit labs, insomuch as I agree that AMD needs to boost its profits and average selling prices (ASPs), but the best way for the company to do that, I think, is to focus on performance parity in areas where Intel is less willing to cut its own price.

Of course, it's always possible that Shanghai is a monster part with Nehalem-crushing performance, scaling, and power consumption, but I wouldn't recommend anyone hold their breath. The task of matching Penryn's performance is an ample job for AMD to tackle—the company doesn't need to be burdened by the weight of unrealistic expectations.