October West Texas Intermediate crude fell 1.19% to $44.10 on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The Brent, the global benchmark, fell $1.77, or 3.7%, to $46.37 a barrel on ICE Futures Europe.

Both WTI and Brent crude futures lost around 3% last week.

Oil prices have found some support in recent sessions. On Friday, Baker Hughes (BHI) reported a drop in active U.S. oil-drilling rigs for a second consecutive week, raising hopes that lower oil prices may have started to impact shale-oil producers.

Earlier today, OPEC cut its forecast of oil supplies from nonmember countries for 2015 by about 72,000 barrels a day to 880,000 barrels a day, citing lower-than-expected output in the U.S.

The U.S. is likely to be the world’s largest oil exporter by 2020, surpassing Saudi Arabia sooner than expected, according to annual energy projections published Monday by the International Energy Agency.

The U.S. now produces all but about 20% of its energy needs domestically in a push toward energy independence. We can thank the boom in the drilling technique known as hydraulic fracturing, which has amounted to a spigot on natural gas and oil from shale formations. Last year, the IEA indicated Russia and Saudi Arabia were more likely to be the largest oil exporters in the decade ahead.

The IEA says Asia will receive almost 90% of Middle Eastern oil shipments by 2035, with Iraq making up 45% of global oil production growth by 2035. If that holds true, Iraq would surpass Russia as the second-largest global oil exporter.

The projections did little to lift energy investments. The Energy Select Sector SPDR (XLE) was flat at about $69.56 in midday trading. Shares of ExxonMobil (XOM), were also flat, at about $87.21, and other integrated oil players, including ConocoPhillips (COP), Chevron (CVX) and Marathon Oil (MRO) fell. Shares of oil services player Schlumberger (SLB) also fell.

Natural gas from “unconventional” sources, and liquefied natural gas, will diversify the flow of trade and pressure suppliers of conventional gas, and gas prices linked to oil.

The need for electricity in emerging economies will drive a 70% increase in worldwide demand, with renewable sources accounting for half of new global capacity and the highest electricity prices persisting in Europe and Japan.

Increasing water needs to meet power demands will determine the viability of energy projects, especially for new coal and nuclear plants.

Greater energy efficiency will promote economic growth in India, China, the United States & Europe.

A top Democrat has asked the Commodity Futures Trading Commission to see if rogue actors including Iran manipulated oil prices with rumors this month.

U.S. crude prices are down 51 cents, or 0.51%, to $106.17 per barrel. Some of the big integrated oil names were down about 1%, including ExxonMobil (XOM) BP (BP) and Total (TOT) , while ConocoPhillips (COP) was down fractionally. Chevron (CVX) was up slightly.

Sure, presidential election campaigning is in full swing, and U.S. gasoline prices are high. But two weeks ago, reports circulated that a pipeline fire in Saudi Arabia was a threat to oil supplies. The Saudi interior ministry denied the report.

Enter Edward Markey, the top Democrat on the House Natural Resources Committee, who drafted a letter to the CFTC, the U.S. futures regulator, to determine if the surge in oil prices that followed the Saudi fire headlines could be blamed on Iran or its connections, or other market manipulation by speculators, according to a Reuters story.

This reporter got wind of the rumor just before the close on March 1, with a link to an article in The Arab Digest showing photos of a fire, but no distinguishable pipeline and a comment from Saudis that the fire was far from pipelines. The article’s author said the fire was “a message to the U.S. administration to convince Saudi Arabia’s government to engage in serious reform.” But the author was anonymous “because of persecution and repression,” according to a comment on the article.

The Digest says it bucks the trend in traditional Arab media, which are “mostly controlled by oil rich regional powers, and thus almost always, partisan/biased.”

In the end sanctions against Iran are a real source of curtailed supply, and therefore prices. Countries or entities that receive Iranian oil face fines if they don’t comply with sanctions. And prices face further volatility anytime Iran renews, as it has in recent months, its periodic threat to cut off the Strait of Hormuz, which is the gateway for nearly a quarter of the world’s oil trade.

About Stocks To Watch

Earnings reports, corporate strategies and analyst insights are all part of what moves stocks, and they’re all covered by the Stocks to Watch blog. We also look at macro issues, investor sentiments and hidden trends that are affecting the market. Stocks to Watch gives you the full picture of the U.S. stock markets, all day long.

The blog is written by Ben Levisohn, a former stock trader who has covered financial markets for the Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg and BusinessWeek.