I think Spielberg has a way of pulling out a visual effects nomination every year he releases a big profile one (Minority Report notwithstanding). Think about it, War of the Worlds was able to come in under Star Wars Episode III and Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire, The Lost World got a nomination over Contact, The Fifth Element and Men in Black, I think this might be the only love Crystal Skull will have. Of course, going up against Iron Man will be no easy feat, which I'm actually predicting on a win.

I'm not so sure on Benjamin Button for Visual Effects. Pehaps it might get into the seven finalists, but as far as the final three, it may be too slight to get nominated (think Pan's Labyrinth or The Fountain). This branch usually loves the epic (or attempt at epic) scope to validate consideration. That being said, I'm predicting these will be the seven finalists:

- The Chronicles of Narnia: Prince Caspian- The Dark Knight- The Day the Earth Stood Still- Hancock- Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull- Iron Man- Quantum of Solice

Sure, Dark Knight and Solice won't make it in, but remember how The Bourne Ultimatum snuck in under the radar last year to get a finalist nomination, proving that in some degree, the quality of the film does come into play. Think about the winners each year and what could have won over them.

In regards to the original thread topic of The Soloist, has anyone else heard that Paramount is pushing this back to 2009 so they don't have so many films in competition? I just read it in Entertainment Weekly, Soloist and The Road are going to be delayed until 2009, Defiance is going to get a limited screening on December 31st, then open wide some time late January. That is the major buzz so far.

Edited By Hollywood Z on 1225111588

"You are what you love, not what loves you." - Nicholas Cage; Adaptation

You're referring to Visual Effects? 'The Curious Case of Benjamin Button' is in and so is 'Iron Man'. This summer was not exactly replete with Visual FX-mounted bullshit as in prior summers. I think the aliens and groundhogs in 'Indy' are too widely-disparaged to be nominated. Maybe 'The Day the Earth Stood Still'?

"If you are marching with white nationalists, you are by definition not a very nice person. If Malala Yousafzai had taken part in that rally, you'd have to say 'Okay, I guess Malala sucks now.'" ~ John Oliver

Sabin wrote:I'm fairly confident that 'The Dark Knight' and 'WALL-E' will be nominated for Best Sound Mixing and Best Sound Effects, perhaps joined by both 'Defiance' (Zwick movies do very well with the audio departments) and perhaps 'Valkyrie' which looks to toggle between an opening war sequence AND the quiet of bunkers. Beyond that, 'The Curious Case of Benjamin Button' for Best Sound Mixing and perhaps Sound Effects, and 'Iron Man' in Sound Effects for the odd film out.

so no love for the raping of indian jones by the sound department? fine by me. i can only hope that horrible film is completely snubbed by the academy.

the fx guys might nominate it though. IRON MAN and THE CURIOUS CASE OF BENJAMIN BUTTON seem like sure-things for fx. while THE DARK KNIGHT's stunt work impressed me, when was the last time a film was nominated for fx which did not heavily rely on computer generated imagery? probably sometime back in the mid-90's.

"When it comes to the subject of torture, I trust a woman who was married to James Cameron for three years."-- Amy Poehler in praise of Zero Dark Thirty director Kathryn Bigelow

I'm fairly confident that 'The Dark Knight' and 'WALL-E' will be nominated for Best Sound Mixing and Best Sound Effects, perhaps joined by both 'Defiance' (Zwick movies do very well with the audio departments) and perhaps 'Valkyrie' which looks to toggle between an opening war sequence AND the quiet of bunkers. Beyond that, 'The Curious Case of Benjamin Button' for Best Sound Mixing and perhaps Sound Effects, and 'Iron Man' in Sound Effects for the odd film out.

"If you are marching with white nationalists, you are by definition not a very nice person. If Malala Yousafzai had taken part in that rally, you'd have to say 'Okay, I guess Malala sucks now.'" ~ John Oliver

Sabin wrote:then in January a more palatable, crowd-pleasing Holocaust film rolls out by a more commercial director.

i totally know what you mean sabin, but that sentence is just wrong on so many levels. :p

i think DEFIANCE will probably get an editing nomination, maybe a sound nomination, and not much else. i guess craig, schreiber, and bell are all possible nominees, especially since BLOOD DIAMOND, THE LAST SAMURAI, and GLORY brought in four nominations for acting, one of which turned into a win.

ironically, the other palatable, crowd-pleaseing holocaust film by a commercial director this year VALKYRIE is being released a week before DEFIANCE. i suspect neither one will make more than $50 million. with VALKYRIE, i think the only oscar possibility is a nomination for its sets. the trailer shows off what look like some pretty impressive reconstructions of nazi headquarters and such.

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"When it comes to the subject of torture, I trust a woman who was married to James Cameron for three years."-- Amy Poehler in praise of Zero Dark Thirty director Kathryn Bigelow

Paramount has 'Defiance', 'The Curious Case of Benjamin Button', and 'Revolutionary Road'. They're fine. Curiously, they're adopting an extremely similar strategy with 'Defiance' as 'Blood Diamond'...open it quickly, then let it roll out in January. I thought 'Blood Diamond' was dead in the water but audiences were interested in the subject matter. No doubt, "Defiance' has a built-in audience but it's necessary to separate it from 'The Reader'. Paramount is Rudin's home and he's trying to destroy the Weinsteins this holiday season. 'The Reader' will play like medicine (no matter how good for you?) against 'Benjamin Button' et al, and then in January a more palatable, crowd-pleasing Holocaust film rolls out by a more commercial director.

'The Soloist' looks to me like 'Reign Over Me'. I'm somewhat interested to see what he can do w/out prestigious material. It also looks like the same movie that 'Seven Pounds' is. ish.

"If you are marching with white nationalists, you are by definition not a very nice person. If Malala Yousafzai had taken part in that rally, you'd have to say 'Okay, I guess Malala sucks now.'" ~ John Oliver

But, Magilla, March is NOT the berth for that type of film. If they were wanting it to contend for Oscars, they would have pushed it into late 2009. A move to March from a plum pre-Oscar November berth indicates extreme lack of confidence in the material.

Wesley Lovell
"Any society that would give up a little liberty to gain a little security will deserve neither and lose both." - Benjamin Franklin

All of which just goes to make Robert Downey, Jr. an early Oscar contender for 2009.

Paramount is not moving the film because they don't believe in it, but because of money and politics. The move probably would have been announced sooner if it hadn't been for the delicate Dreamworks negotiations. Comparing it to All the King's Men, an ill-conceived remake of an earlier Oscar winner, as the article attempts to do, is ludicrous.

nice to hear the far superior looking (based on trailers and descriptions) REVOLUTIONARY ROAD and THE CURIOUS CASE OF BENJAMIN BUTTON are going to receive the full oscar push.

DEFIANCE is receiving a qualifying run, but a full release in january. it seems like they are hoping to pick up a few nominations in the tech categories like many zwick films do, but have little hopes for a best picture nom. a big film like this needs to be seen by many people. only super strong critical praise can lift a late release out of obscurity and make it shine (LETTERS FROM IWO JIMA).

Edited By rolotomasi99 on 1224260736

"When it comes to the subject of torture, I trust a woman who was married to James Cameron for three years."-- Amy Poehler in praise of Zero Dark Thirty director Kathryn Bigelow

Studio is moving the Jamie Foxx-Robert Downey Jr. starrer from Nov. 21 to March 13, dashing any hopes for Academy Awards accolades for '08.

DreamWorks, which produced the film, had high hopes for "The Soloist" as a contender in multiple Oscar categories, including the acting heats, particularly Downey's performance.

Directed by "Atonement" helmer Joe Wright, "Soloist" is based on a series of L.A. Times columns by Steve Lopez about a homeless schizophrenic musician's dreams of playing at Walt Disney Concert Hall.

DreamWorks declined comment, but insiders said brass are very disappointed by the move while conceding that it might benefit the film's box office prospects due to the competitive field of year-end films.

U.K.'s Working Title, also a producer on "Soloist," and helmer Wright were also taken off guard. Paramount risks tainting the movie's profile with this move, which the industry and media will read as a vote of no-confidence. It had built positive buzz during long-lead screenings.

Steve Zaillian's "All the King's Men" bowed to disappointing box office after Columbia Pictures moved it from 2005 to 2006.

TV spots for "The Soloist" have already aired nationally and were committed going forward, though Par said it can pull the spots back or roll them over. "Soloist" trailers had been placed in front of "Eagle Eye."

"We decided it's a commercial movie that will play well in the spring, and we'll give it an aggressive wide release then," Par vice chairman Rob Moore said.

Studio also moved Ed Zwick's "Defiance," a Holocaust drama starring Daniel Craig and Liev Schreiber, to a 2009 wide release. The film, which was scheduled to open Dec. 12, will still get an Oscar qualifying run by bowing Dec. 31. But Paramount will release the Vantage title wide on Jan. 16.

Both "The Soloist" and "Defiance" were booked into the AFI Fest next month.

Moves save the studio some $60 million-$70 million in prints and advertising costs before the end of the year. By moving the two wide releases into 2009, Paramount can count all its P&A costs and revenues in the same year, rather than taking a steep year-end hit on marketing costs.

In its old date, "Defiance" would have gone up against the debut of Miramax's "Doubt" and the Weinstein Co.'s "The Reader," as well as the expansion of "Milk" and "Frost/Nixon."

Likewise, "The Soloist" was set to open wide in a very crowded frame. Pics set to unspool then include "Twilight" and "Bolt."

Paramount is clearly throwing its Oscar campaign money at Sam Mendes' "Revolutionary Road" starring Kate Winslet and Leonardo DiCaprio, and David Fincher's "The Curious Life of Benjamin Button," starring Brad Pitt as a man who ages backward. Paramount also is putting its financial muscle, with Downey's blessing, behind his supporting performance in the Ben Stiller comedy "Tropic Thunder."

Insiders say Paramount should have made decisions on these two films months ago. However, the economic downturn and the recent DreamWorks divorce prompted a delayed course of action.

(Pamela McClintock contributed to this report.)

Wesley Lovell

"Any society that would give up a little liberty to gain a little security will deserve neither and lose both." - Benjamin Franklin