Is the local government referendum as good as lost?

The referendum on constitutional recognition of local governments is losing support from the Opposition. And without bipartisan support, history tells us that referendums are likely to fail, writes Sabra Lane.

At the next federal election Australians are supposed to vote on whether local government should be formally recognised in the federal constitution.

The Federal Government has argued the change is essential, saying councils and shires should be acknowledged in the nation's most important document to avoid uncertainty over Commonwealth funding for local government projects.

The Australian Local Government Association argues there is a solid case for it; saying it is vital to ensure Commonwealth funding of The Roads to Recovery and Black Spot funding are guaranteed for all time and is put beyond legal challenge.

Until local government is recognised in the constitution, the Federal Government believes millions of dollars of Commonwealth funding for council and shire projects is open to legal challenge.

Last week the leader of the Opposition, Tony Abbott, made some comments about the referendum that didn't get the prominence they deserved, because of the turmoil within Labor.

His thoughts could well signal that this referendum is doomed, there is no longer solid bipartisan support for it and the nation perhaps would be best served by saving money, for when there is unanimous agreement on both sides.

There is disquiet within Coalition ranks over the Federal Government's decision to give unequal funding for the "Yes" and "No" campaigns, to inform the public about the arguments for change.

The Federal Government awarded the "Yes' case $10 million but the "No" case only received $500,000. The Government argued this was done on the basis of how many MPs voted for the referendum bill in the Lower House.

Only two Coalition MPs crossed the floor to vote against the bill.

But more have privately said they would have done the same, if they had known about the Government's intention to fund the cases for and against, would be based on the number of MPs who voted for and against it in the House.

The Opposition Leader Tony Abbott wrote to the former prime minister on June 17, seeking equal funding for the referendum. He said the funding rationale had never been raised with the Coalition before the House of Representatives vote and that anything but equal funding would put at risk the fairness of the process.

In the Senate, once the campaign funding split was revealed, seven Coalition senators voted against the referendum bill and at least a dozen frontbenchers abstained altogether, a clear sign that Coalition support for it was eroding.

Based on timeframes set down in the constitution, the earliest a referendum can be held is September 14, which was the original date set aside for a general election by the former prime minister, Julia Gillard.

Prime Minister Kevin Rudd says he will consider the referendum in setting a new date for a general election.

He has also talked about the desire to attend the G20 conference in Russia in early September which would eat into campaign time for a September 14 poll.

Last week Mr Abbott said the government had mishandled the local referendum from the beginning and hadn't properly consulted on it.

"What I've said is that it should go forward to the people for a vote. That's what I've said. But the whole thing has been very badly mishandled, even to the point of being gagged through the Parliament and it's a very good rule, when you're looking at constitutional change, if you don't understand it, don't vote for it. If in doubt, say "no" and, as I said, I am carefully watching this debate unfold," Mr Abbott told me last Thursday.

The Opposition Leader was challenged, if he had all those caveats on it, why did the Coalition pass it through Parliament?

"Well, in the end, the constitution of our country belongs to the people and the people should decide it. So I'm happy for the question to go forward but I've got to say I have very, very deep reservations about the question and the process," Mr Abbott said.

"If I was the Australian Local Government Association, I would be asking the Government to have, to rethink all of this. Let's face it, twice before, this matter has gone to the people and been rejected. If it's rejected a third time, I think that's probably curtains for this," he said.

That's a nod and wink to the electorate if you don't like it or understand it, just vote no.

Those campaigning for the 'No' case believe the Opposition Leader's words are significant and will send a strong signal to the electorate.

Given most Labor MPs will be busy campaigning for themselves and not the constitutional change, one wonders if the local government referendum, along with the referendum on Indigenous recognition in the constitution, should be postponed until there is community consensus, and full bipartisan support.

And history shows, referendums held without bipartisan support are never successful.

Sabra Lane is the chief political correspondent for ABC Radio current affairs. View her full profile here.