Typical traverse through the Massif Central with its relatively high elevation and plenty of undulating roads of significant climbing difficulty. This one looks a lot harder than stage 14 in the 2015 edition. It's slightly longer, and whilst it also contains four categorized and additional uncategorized climbs, they are much more difficult on this occasion. The cat.1s, one at the start and one nearer the end look particularly challenging, especially the cat.1 with 40kms to-go since it's 8.3kms @ 7.4%, with a 1.8km section in the middle at 14%. Then that's followed with an 18km section of descending where a lead might be consolidated by the rider who was to attack on the 14% section, however output would have to be measured very finely indeed, on account of a deceptively tough cat.4 soon after with 1.9kms @ 6.8%. Which is then followed by an uncategorized bump which is similar in nature to that one late in stage 9, where Barguil finally cracked and Bardet went past him. I think the key to this stage from my analysis is its conclusion; the uncatgeorized bump which -- on paper looks like it -- will decide the winner.

It is highly likely that this stage will be one of those "transit" stages where a big breakaway group is permitted to go up the road and the peloton just switch off completely after being satisfied with its composition, effectively giving themselves an early Rest Day. It's going to be hot and sunny, they've just had some tough stages and the Rest Day cannot come soon enough -- might as well start today for the majority.

Warren Barguil has a handy lead in the KOM competition and with the climb beginning soon after the start and offering 15 points, it is correct anaylsis to expect him to want to protect his lead over De Gendt, Landa and Roglic, and therefore I would expect him to be involved in the early clashes as the riders seek to form the day's breakaway group. Barguil was involved in the two big breakaway stages 8/9, and finally won a stage from the breakaway when having the strongest and smartest kick in a 4-up sprint on stage 13. Incidentally, he moved into the Polkadot jersey on stage 9 and confirmed his intentions to protect it into Paris with that stage 13 ride to win. With Voeckler being the last FRA rider to win the Polkadot jersey in 2012, Barguil knows the significance of winning it as a FRA rider and he should be fighting for it today, which will consequently see him make the break, perhaps along with Bling but more like Geschke since this stage is too hard for yesterday;s stage winner. Barguil was installed as the 12/1 second favourite at SP and has shortened into 10/1, with some E/W value. He is still being matched on here at 11/1 and better, with 13/1 representing fair value given his climbing talent and therefore the ability to make an attack on the steep part of the final cat.1 climb.

I also like Lilian Calmejane for the breakaway. With teammate and mentor Voeckler having been involved in failed breakaways on stage 5/9/14 and conversely Calmejane winning stage 8 from a breakaway after showing his impressive potential in the breakaway on stage 3 when pressing forward after Hardy, De Gendt and Perichon had given up -- he has the youthful enthusiasm and talent to want to be involved today, and respresent's DEN's best chance for the stage win.

Steve Cummings won the 2015 stage 14 from a long-range breakaway, beating two much better climbers and whilst I understand him being installed as the favourite for this stage, I question if he has recovered from his solo attempt on stage 12. He tends to need a longer timeframe to recover from such heroic rides, and unless he is on good sensations I think this stage might be too early for him.

This stage might have been quite easy to solve -- and gone quite differently -- if it wasn't for TFR missing getting Mollema into it, and then complicating things by forming this massive second chase group.

Barguil in the lead as expected, he has both Bling and Geschke in the chase, and they are contributing on account of the Intermediate Sprint points for Bling. Calemejane in the chase group, also.

This stage might have been quite easy to solve -- and gone quite differently -- if it wasn't for TFR missing getting Mollema into it, and then complicating things by forming this massive second chase group. Barguil in the lead as expected, he has bot

SKY not switching off as expected, but probably this is just to keep it at around 5mins to prevent other GC teams panicking and causing chaotic scenes on the front of the peloton. Still with the break, I believe.

SKY not switching off as expected, but probably this is just to keep it at around 5mins to prevent other GC teams panicking and causing chaotic scenes on the front of the peloton. Still with the break, I believe.

Doesn't look like it. I guess they'll want to see where Bling is on the final cat.1 climb and maybe using him as a counter for Barguil, however they risk pushing him too far when he is in such good form, so that could backfire down the road with his condition.

Doesn't look like it. I guess they'll want to see where Bling is on the final cat.1 climb and maybe using him as a counter for Barguil, however they risk pushing him too far when he is in such good form, so that could backfire down the road with his

Secondly: Gaps in the GC due to positioning factor going into this final cat.1 -- could be more bad news for Aru.

Thirdly: The best climbers in the break will need to bust it up the final cat.1 climb and then combine well together to prevent the possible regroup by the chasers. The climb is hard-enough and long-enough for them to open a big-enough gap, and the fact that this is such a big group will force attacking riding and the majority will crack I think, and so therefore I think htere is little chance of a regrouping.

Firstly: Break home.Secondly: Gaps in the GC due to positioning factor going into this final cat.1 -- could be more bad news for Aru.Thirdly: The best climbers in the break will need to bust it up the final cat.1 climb and then combine well together

Panzerwagen will probably require some 3mins by the bottom of the final climb to stay with the climbers -- of Pinot, Caruso, Calemjane, Barguil, and Mollema -- once they catch him. But if they do and he sticks on, he will come into calculations in a very big way with the long run-in into the finish.

1+min lead now for thePpanzerwagen. Still 15kms to build it to 3mins.

Panzerwagen will probably require some 3mins by the bottom of the final climb to stay with the climbers -- of Pinot, Caruso, Calemjane, Barguil, and Mollema -- once they catch him. But if they do and he sticks on, he will come into calculations in a

Let's remember that TFR made this a much harder race to solve after they refused to get off the front when in pursuit of the break at the start of the day.

...And then this happens!

Sometimes it's just meant to be, as a result, I think we might get another top-class rider at the WT level.

Let's remember that TFR made this a much harder race to solve after they refused to get off the front when in pursuit of the break at the start of the day. ...And then this happens!Sometimes it's just meant to be, as a result, I think we might get an

That race had everything, and was happy that Barguil and Calmejane made it in, although I left a lot of Calmejane out of the market on account of him not getting involved.

Mollema was 33/1 at SP out to 50/1 pre-start, but was matched on here with reasonable liquidity at 100s.

That rights my ship after stage 13 screw-up.

That race had everything, and was happy that Barguil and Calmejane made it in, although I left a lot of Calmejane out of the market on account of him not getting involved. Mollema was 33/1 at SP out to 50/1 pre-start, but was matched on here with rea

Special mention for Bling -- he is going top class at this Tour -- to come in 5mins down on climbers after his win yesterday -- am fogetting my previous comments about him being overrated -- he is now RATED to top-class -- no doubt. Word champion material when in this condition. Might need to take another look at Bergen and Salmon Hill, in which case I might put the mining equipment away and reach for a fly rod -- 6.4% average.

Special mention for Bling -- he is going top class at this Tour -- to come in 5mins down on climbers after his win yesterday -- am fogetting my previous comments about him being overrated -- he is now RATED to top-class -- no doubt. Word champion mat

Not really mate -- doesn't pay to solve historical questions, unless they can have some effect on the remaning stages. Are you inferring it does?

I raised the question of how Aru can gain time on Froome when you brought up the ITT matter in terms of it advantaging Froome by about a min, and I didn't disagree, however by not having found a way into that question, I didn't give Aru much more thought afterward, especially when considering how he could -- and did -- lose positioning into stage 15 and lose Yellow.

I thought two races would be fun, but then when it got so fun with Mollema I wished it was only one race. Have to go back to the tape -- all I remember is Froome -- mechanical -- Kwiatkowski like a rock beside him -- work-work-work -- good ride -- job done -- disaster averted -- Bardet at least tried on home roads!

Not really mate -- doesn't pay to solve historical questions, unless they can have some effect on the remaning stages. Are you inferring it does? I raised the question of how Aru can gain time on Froome when you brought up the ITT matter in terms of

Amazing ride by Froome. French crowd booing the yellow jersey as he was clawing it back tells you all you need to know about them. Local boy Bardet only in the hunt because of the Commissaires' lack of transparency when ducking the application of their own rules. Bardet's team had Froome on the ropes but they were impotent when it mattered.

Amazing ride by Froome. French crowd booing the yellow jersey as he was clawing it back tells you all you need to know about them. Local boy Bardet only in the hunt because of the Commissaires' lack of transparency when ducking the application of the

Personally I thought that ride by Froome was highly questionable. Have to be honest and say I can completely understand why he was getting booed. He was riding well above threshold for about 20 minutes - so hard he popped all his domestiques - to chase back on to a Ag2r team going full gas. And then he was able to stay with attacks.

I thought BMC made a right mess of that today. 4 men in the break and although they moved Caruso into the top ten that will be scant consoltation. I'd think they'll be desperate for a stage in the third week. Might be one for Kung on Tuesday?

Brilliant ride from Mollema today.

Personally I thought that ride by Froome was highly questionable. Have to be honest and say I can completely understand why he was getting booed. He was riding well above threshold for about 20 minutes - so hard he popped all his domestiques - to cha

BMC must have been smarting by getting beat by Bling on stage 14 when they did so much work for GVA, and hence they threw the proverbial Kithcen Sink at this stage, thinking that greater numbers would improve their chances of getting the win and Caruso was their most likely, obviously.

Stefan Kung was in the breakaway on stage 12 and rode well, he had wanted to get into one on an earlier, I don't recall which one exactly, assume it would have been one of the flatter stages, but was told that he was too strong and the sprint teams didn't allow him to go. That's what they used to say about Spartacus.

BMC must have been smarting by getting beat by Bling on stage 14 when they did so much work for GVA, and hence they threw the proverbial Kithcen Sink at this stage, thinking that greater numbers would improve their chances of getting the win and Caru

Wonder

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