Well, this storm is certainly starting to look more wintry. A much colder look on a bunch of our models this morning. Could this change tomorrow? Absolutely…but more and more this is looking to have a look of a Nor’easter coming up the coast. There are still plenty of questions regarding the overall track, the supply of cold air into the storm, and the seasonal effects of how hard it is to snow this time of year. But memories of the April fool’s storm of 1997 remind us how easy it can be to get a quick heavy snow depending on the timing and track of a storm.

So here we go again…Tuesday’s runs…likely to be different from Wednesday’s & Thursday’s run…but hopefully close enough that this early speculation rings true.

The Euro has an all out Nore’aster off the coast. Any Morning mix changing to snow for many..excluding the Cape. Gale force winds at the coast. Potential for a foot of snow inland away from the coast.

850 mb temps on the Euro and GFS are cold aloft to support snow. The O line barely makes it over the Canal. It’s a cold look. The question is the boundary layer warmth at the surface with a wind off the 40 degree water could allow for mixing at the coast…also the lack of a real cold high to supply the cold into the storm. It looks snowy to me.

How about the O6Z GFS…very similar look to the Euro this morning. A low bombing out just southeast of Nantucket. Are you kidding me? Again the 850 line is down towards the Cape with the 540 line (Snow/rain) barely getting up to Boston. As this low pulls away any mixing changes to snow later friday and friday night…but lighter amounts. The precipitation looks heavy…so as this falls it will likely drag the cold air down with it and fight off any low level boundary warmth. Again..potential for a foot of snow inland.

The Canadian has a farther offshore track…which would be a lighter snowfall for Southeast MA. The UKMET this morning has a similar look to the Canadian with a low moving far enough south of New England for the Northen fringe to graze southern New England with a Snow. The UKMET was far west yesterday…so it is all over the place trying to figure this out.

The Japanese is still holding onto to it’s inside running low up the Appalacians with a secondary up the Hudson river valley…bring a wamer solution and mostly a heavy rainfall.

The RPM this morning is intersting as they have the precipitation starting Thursday and continuing into Friday. The map below show total accumulation of snow on the ground by 12Z Friday…so it does not even include what falls on Friday. This has the greater Boston Metro area with 4-6″ of snow, with 6-8″ in the Wocester Hills by early Friday morning…with more to fall! Bad news.

This SREF winter weather forecasting product BELOW shows the probabilty of snow. The Blue is a 90% probability, the Red is a 70% probability. Yikes. But this product is based on the Candadian which does take a lot of the moisture south and just grazes us…with an apparent mix.

I like the map below for a guidance for an early idea on who can expect snow. I think any where outside of 128…it is looking like a pretty good thumping of snow is possible…if not likely. Considering the amount of moisture which is in play with this system any sort of track south of New England could spell bad news for the winter/snow haters of New England.

The 12z GFS prints out QPF totals in southern New England ranging from 1.25-1.5″. If some areas remain all snow…depending on the tracks…well, the potential for some areas to see a foot of snow is not out of the question…especially if the track of the EURO or GFS verify. Though mixing remains a concern at the coast, Any sort of elevation will almost gurantee all snow with ratios of at least 10-1. You can see heavy precip extending from Washington DC to Boston. Even the major metropolitain areas should be on the look out for snow…track dependent.

Below is the 12Z GFS 500 mb Vort for Thursday night. Check out the energy rounding the base of the trough heading towards mid-Atlantic and New England.

Again…this can all change tomorrow. This is just a blog to show you what we are looking at TODAY and our current thinking. This storm has real potential and will likely have an area of heavy snow inland, rain at the coast…primarily southeastern MA…with strong winds too. If this heavy wet snow occurs the potential for power outages.

There is still plenty of uncertainty in how this will play out. More changes in the coming days are almost guranteed. The NAM has the storm completely missing us to the south. Not buying that solution when you look at everything else. I still believe this will be a significant storm, luckily quick moving. It does appear today to have an increased risk of an interior heavy snowfall. We will see.

Joe- what else could you ask for after reading that blog, you outdid yourself again. Awesome information. I hope your boss sees the blogs that you have been putting up. Top notch Joe, keep up the great work,

12 Z Euro still has a major snowfall inland. GFS and EURO tracks still almost identical. East winds will allow lower accums at coast…piles up inland along a coastal front. This storm looks like it is going to bomb. Explosive pattern.

I like how you all say “BOMB.”: That was used religiously on here for the last two storms (aka dustings)…let’s not go overboard here. This only adds to the hype for a storm that is 3 days out, and the next model runs might show a miss.

Now Joe….don’t get too giddy about this….as you stated this could all change tomorrow…also, it is April and the strong April sun will have something to say about this…I know you snow *lovers* want one more, but hey…take a reality check.

I forget now but which model hinted at this first….Euro or GFS? I thought I remebered a blogger showing EURO map several days ago with this. A few people poked fun at the post but looks like a good long-range call at this point

12z ECWMF delivers a ~1.5 QPF. 850mb all below 0c at BOS and ORH. However, 2M temps remain above 0c for duration at both locations. It is that lack of low level cold, that makes me worry about going all in on snow right now.

Dynamic cooling can only do so much with a lack of strong cold to drain from the north if the winds are more east/northeast. There was much more cold air able to drain down from the north in 1997, and these comparisons to 1997 will blow this forecast up if people bite on it too much.

I know JMA right….This thing is gonna have to make its own cold air as we all know. Think of how rare something like this is for this time of year….everything has to fall perfectly in line. I do remeber ’97 quite well however. I remember it pouring rain then came the thunder, lighting and 33″ of snow.

I believe that it can and will snow north and west of 128, I just do not like the lack of cold air, the lack of -NAO/AO, the progressive 500mb flow, the amount of snow that would have to fall in the daytime with surface temps abvoe freezing with April Sun angle, a lot of things have to go right for major snowfall in SNE in April, and too many things here are not right for me to have confidence.

I hear ya JMA….what do you wish for here… a stronger storm with more qpf to draw down cold but that might come back to haunt pulling more ocen air in. I’m at about 900′ elevation central Mass. so I do like my chances more than inside of 128 for sure

Hey Joe….Craig G at Northeastweathereye.com in Hull… So what do you think regarding storm surge as the NWS indicated that it would be a concern for coastal communities?? and wow…1997 all over again per those maps!

Great blog Joe as usual. As I have been saying this is going to be something to watch evolve and if you are in the interior especially up in elevation using the Snow Index I would say there is a shot at a MODERATE Snowfall. The coastal areas I think would have a MINOR Snowfall. I still think more wet than white for those areas. Those are my inital thoughts on impacts and as always this could change so stay tuned!

The High tide is at 10:50 AM. The tidal height is about 9.5…which is not astronomically high for the month. Strongest winds will be from the northeast Friday morning and intensify midday into the early afternoon where gusts to 50 mph will be possible. Seas will be building to 10-15 feet off the coast during the afternoon…before winds shift to the NW late in the day. There will be big waves…but the tide will be going out with the peak wind and waves. Too small of a window to create any big coastal problems.

^^^^ I agree with the sentiment….of tempering our enthusiasm….because all this could easily change tomorrow with a slight change in track or temp and it all goes down the drain. BUT nothing is coming in terms of snow?? I guess it depends on where you live. The coast could end up with very little…But I am pretty sure there will be some snow involved with this storm.

The GFS model is showing that the storm will drag cold air in if i am not reading this wrong .http://weather.unisys.com/gfsx/gfsx.php?inv=0&plot=850&region=us&t=4d\
I am still going with my earlier thoughts on this storm
The next storm will not be all rain or all snow.
south and east of boston will be mainly rain.
north and west of boston will have a mix of snow and rain.. Snow thrusday night changing to rain friday noon time. then changing back before the precipitaion ends
North of rt 2 it could remain as snow with several inches of snow being verry possible

with respect to all u on here
jma topkatt matt hadi jimmyjames joe joyce matt weatherwiz and others
i want to hear from the baileyman on this one serious now
call me a fanatic fan but i remember that dude hitting on just about every storm this winter
tell me im wrong or not but did he not hit all of the big snowstorms to the inches?
so what is up with that bm? where are you? i need to know for one cause i got big party plans friday dude and i do not want no dam snowstorm!! so please telll us whats up with this storm for friday if you there?
tell us its rain or missin us please! baileyman come back and set this storm straight dude and tell us the trrue stuff on this .. saying prayin out to sea or rain here!!!

There was a ne wind for the first part of the storm(1997) went nne and then north after midnight. Temps dropped to the upper 20’s for several hrs. during the peak of the storm. The next day had some bands of mod snow in the morning with a steady light wetter snow into the afternoon. Snow stopped around 4 Pm. Does that sound about right anybody?

max sea ice extent for this season was on Mar 7 tied 2006 for lowest extent since 1979. This means a mostly rain event for Boston area. This logic is impeccable. Boundary layer too warm for snow coast. I can almost gaurantee.

Omg! Are you all like kidding me? I did not think I would even read or type in this blog until like about next Dec or something like that. I am in a wedding on saturday and please to God tell me it is not going to snow! I want to look as pretty as possible and tanned! No snow white in this wedding party honey! Please tell me it is not going to snow topkat and baileymen. What is this all about?

Can we please stop saying “winter returns”…or winter this or that…it’s spring…figured you all would know that. Snow isn’t equal to winter…tell that to someone in July in Antartica. Winter – like it or not – IS over. This is spring snow.

Certainly, it’s `spring’ snow, yes. But, spring is a misnomer around here. Besides a bright sun when the sun does shine, a few frigid flowers poking out of the ground, and some robins looking for a place to mate, what is spring-like about today? Everything is still as brown and dormant as can be (with the exception of those frigid flowers I mentioned), it’s brisk outside during the day and cold at night. I don’t get a spring feel in Boston. It’s not our season. We’ve got 3 great seasons, spring is not one of them.

A storm like April 1, 1997 only happens once. That was surreal. A confluence of factors that lead to the perfect storm. I do not see this happening again. However, for many weeks my hunch has been we will have some snow in April. We’re overdue for snow in April. And, I also believed way back in early February that March would be somewhat on the cold side and that spring would be very late, as usual. In all my years in New England, I’ve experienced about 2 early springs. This is why I did not buy into the “March will be warm” talk, when this was suggested in early February.

MY EARLY snow predictions on my snow scale of 1 to 5 REMEMBER IT IS STILL 2 DAYS AWAY. SO THIS WILL LIKLY CHANGE.
south and east of boston a 1 on my snow scale which is minor snow to rain back to snow.
south of the pike and inside of 128 a 2 on my snow scale which is a moderate snow fall. snow will mix or change over to rain.
north of the pike and outside of 128 a 2.5 on my snow scale which means a moderate or heivy snow fall could occur. snow with rain mixing in at times during the mid afternoon.
north of the pike a 3 on my snow scale . it will be all snow.

I agree with you with the coastal areas since I see a mix cutting things down so a 1 for that area.
Now the farther you are in the interioe and up in elevation the Potentail exists for a MODERATE Snowfall which is snowfall ranging from 4-10 inches. This is still early and will be adjusted.

funnybone… he has been right many times this winter. You do not put out anything unless you can say something bad about someone else. topkatt scott baileyman charlie coastal hadi leo matt and others are good .you are not and you are looking for dam attention.

Stormcenter wish I could tell you whether he is, signs are pointing to that potential but like most of us would say it’s too premature to throw out numbers yet. I think this time tomorrow will be very telling.

Yes, that we are getting nothing. How can you all say just YESTERDAY you csn’t buy into anything until 24 hours and you have this all cemented…HAHA. Unprofessional…letting your passions rule your thoughts. Tomorrow you will be SHOCKED.

Nope. That’s the great thing about college. I’ll be shoveling out my parents, my grandmother, and my elderly neighbor, but it means I won’t have to go to the gym. I can find th bright side to anything! :)

The March snowfall total here in Pepperell is only 3.0 inches which is 12.1 inches below the average. So, it looks like April will produce more snow here than March did! I measured 26.8 inches from the April Fools storm of 1997 in West Townsend; but 15.9 inches of that fell before midnight on 31 March; with the remaining 10.9 inches falling on 1 April. There was 20 inches on the ground at 19:00 on 1 April; but back to a trace by 5 April! This will be a nice cap to the snow season assuming that this will be the last significant snow event?? Of course the storm is still two days away…

I think we are going to see a significant coastal front set up. Significantly lower accums at the coast with rainy wet mix…but accumulaltions could pile up on the colder side of the front which will be just a few miles inland.

Leaving Logan on Saturday for Atlantis. Or should I say hopefully leaving Logan on Saturday. Can Topkatt88 or anyone suggest a site that would have an accurate extended forecast for the Bahamas? Thanks in advance…

Topkatt88 i did not say that about you . You are realy good someone is using my name and saying things about others to make me look bad. topkatt88 i love your posts and find them full of info. thank you snow time.

Well well, looks like winter comes back at us with a vengaence!!! lol I was looking at this one a couple days back and thought it might turn into somewthing and now the models are starting to show some agreement!!!! I’m going to go with rain Plymouth south with a mix up to Boston and a steady heavy cement snow everywhere else!!!! I think some towns could see ovr a foot, but again theres some time for the models to change their minds. Im still pretty certain on this one, but it will be fun to see!!

Wrong…it IS spring. Are you guys not educated? It CAN snow in spring you know…just like it snows in late fall…or is that considered winter too? Hell, let’s just forgo the 4 seasons and just have one…winter. Wake up…

not the real BaileyMan. BaileyMan is much more analytical and he wouldn’t jump on board saying I was thinking this would be a big one. If he really was thinking that he would have jumped on days ago. Although, this is going to be a big one, away from the coast.

It will be interesting to see what weather people will say tomorrow night. :-) I am kind of surprised and shock at same time abou this potential upcoming storm. :-( But we’ll wait till tmw or even thursday night. STAY TUNED tomorrow evening!

i cant believe im sayng this on a weather blog but i miss the real bailey mans posts. what about you all? what did happen to him? like to hear what he thinks about this storm come back bailey man! or if someone knows him tell him 2 come back in but i have a hunch bailey man is possibly topkat88 or mark rosanthal then maybe or maybe not.?

friday storm
precip starts to over spread the region around 3 am. I am really certain that it will be all snow north of 495 and north of the pike. , It will be snow rain .south coast cape and islands. the question is how far does the rain line go.
I am thinking that the rain line will stay south and east of boston. with all snow to the north at this point .

Early snow predictions
0-2 inches southeast mass.
2-5 inches south of the pike and east coast
5-10 inches north and west of boston away from the coast.
possibly 10+ for areas north of rt 2 They might be a little on the high side. This will occur if more than an 1 inche of water occurs.

Hey
Baileyman fan here but I also would love to hear from you Topkatt on this one too? You know your weather too like no ones business! what is your amount call topkatt on snow? Snow plowing in Acton ? I hate to think it but looks bad

I guess A good Thumping could be considered anything over 6″ of snow. A 495 mauler was just a term that popped in my head…because this could be a jack pot area for some heavy snowfall accumulation…495 is known to be a snowbelt area….one step down from the Worcester Hills..but one step up from 128.
Already looking forward to tomorrow! It is nice to end the winter season with one last hurrah is it not? I assume there are many who may not share in twisted point of view. Thanks for checking in!

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