Based on the market’s fear gauge, investors don’t seem too worried about the fiscal cliff.

In this week’s edition of MarketBeat Week, our Friday podcast, Stephen Grocer and Steven Russolillo discuss the looming fiscal cliff of tax increases and spending cuts set to go into effect early next year unless Washington acts.

Despite the concerns, the CBOE’s Volatility indicator, or VIX has traded below its historical average of 20 for five months, suggesting a sense of calm hanging over the market.

At its core, Black Friday is really a celebration of consumerism in America, so it’s useful to take a peek at where shoppers get some of their firepower.

As of September, cash coming from Uncle Sam (transfer receipts) contributed 17.7% of total personal income, up from about 14.8% five years ago, though down a bit from 17.9% in 2009. Total personal income has increased 14% since Sept 2007, and Uncle Sam’s contribution to the pile is up a hefty 37%.

Meanwhile, the contribution to income from wages is up a more modest 7%, though the total in government wages is up almost 12%.

Just some food for thought on where consumers are getting some of the cash that they then unload on Black Friday.

The government’s next personal income and spending report for October is due on Nov. 30.

Retail stocks typically struggle from Thanksgiving through Christmas amid lofty holiday expectations. On a longer time horizon, though, these stocks tend to bounce back once the holidays are over and the calendar flips to a new year.

Strategas Research Partners

Retail stocks have outperformed the S&P 500 during the first quarter in 14 of the last 18 years, according to Strategas Research Partners.

February and March, historically, are the best months of the year for this particular sector.

The Dow is up more than 100 points during this holiday shortened trading session, putting the psychologically significant 13000 level back in focus. All 30 blue chips rose, led by Hewlett-Packard, Microsoft and Intel Corp.

The S&P 500 is up 1%, has climbed back above 1400 and is on pace for a fifth straight day of gains. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite is also up 1%.

Take Friday’s gains with a grain of salt. Historically, the market tends to move higher around Thanksgiving.

Trading volume is thin amid half empty trading desks on Wall Street. Stock markets were closed yesterday due to Thanksgiving and will close today at 1:00 p.m. Eastern Time.

Watch for: Nothing major regarding earnings or economic data is on the calendar. The stock market closes at 1:00 p.m. Eastern Time. Bonds close at 2:00.

For more MarketBeat and other streaming markets coverage from The Wall Street Journal, point your mobile browser to wsj.com/marketspulse.

The Breakfast Briefing

Black Friday, a big boon for retailers’ bottom lines, historically has done little to buoy their stock prices through year-end.

Retail stocks typically outperform the broad market ahead of the holiday season. This year has been no different. Retailers in the S&P 500 have watched their shares rise about 25% in 2012, outpacing the 11% gain for the S&P 500.

But the cheery times may not last, and short sellers are poised to benefit if weakness in retail stocks were to ensue.

In typical “buy the rumor, sell the news” mantra, retail stocks, on average, underperform the rest of the market once the big shopping season gets underway. Since 2000, S&P 500 retail stocks have averaged a 0.8% gain from Thanksgiving through Christmas, while the S&P 500 has risen 1.4%, on average, according to Bespoke Investment Group.

Retail stocks have outpaced the overall market only one-third of the time throughout this time frame.

This year, several retailers invaded Thanksgiving by offering their much-hyped discounts earlier than usual. As retailers regale their Black Friday specials and deck their stores with the latest toys and electronics, the holiday hype leads to raised expectations – and higher stock prices – in November.

While short interest in S&P 500 retail stocks — which represents the number of shares that have been sold short — has fallen from its highs of the year in July, retailers are still “popular shorts,” says Simon Colvin, an analyst at market-data firm Markit.

Short interest in the retail sector far outpaces the average individual S&P 500 stock, he adds. And in particular, short interest over the past month has surged in individual names such as Saks Inc. and J.C. Penney Co.

While these retail trends bear watching through the rest of the year, traders suggest against reading too much into what transpires in today’s action.

Financial markets are open for only half a day following the holiday. Trading volume, which has been light all week, is expected to be thinner than usual amid half-empty trading desks.

Still, the S&P 500 is riding a four-day winning streak as the market enters an historically favorable time period. As we noted earlier this week, the S&P 500 has risen in the period spanning the day before Thanksgiving through Dec. 3 in 17 of the last 20 years.

While the seasonal tide is in the market’s favor, retail stocks may not be such big beneficiaries.

Morning MarketBeat Daily Factoid: On this day in 1954, the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 382.74, surpassing its previous peak of 381.17 which happened on September 3, 1929. That means it took the market 25 years to reclaim levels witnessed prior to the crash and Great Depression.

Wal-Mart shares are down today after a generally disappointing earnings report, and while the retailer is upbeat on the holiday season, that obviously isn’t resonating with the (stock) buying public today.

Wal-Mart, along with Target, and Sears, are opening their doors for Black Friday on Thursday. Yes, Thanksgiving night, 8 p.m. at Wal-Mart and 9 p.m. at Target, which means people will be dropping their turkey legs mid-bite, if they have dinner at all, to get in line for those “doorbuster” deals.

This is just the latest sign of the pressures on retailers this holiday season.

MarketWatch’s Andria Cheng stopped by the Markets Hub this morning to talk about the pressures on retailers this holiday sesason:

Is this a Black Friday stock rally? And if so, why are consumer discretionary stocks not participating?

Sure, Best Buy is up 2.2%, and Tiffany’s has gained 1.5%, but consumer discretionary stocks as a class are right in line with the day’s moves, neither over- nor underperforming. Shoppers may be lining up around the block and busting down doors, but things are ghostly quiet on the trading floors. That’s allowed financials to charge way ahead today, with Morgan Stanley, Citigroup, Bank of America and Goldman Sachs floating near the top of the S&P 500 gainers list. This, on a day when:

the Italian Treasury is forced to pay the highest yields on record for the country to lure investors to its latest sale of short-term debt;

the Swiss National Bank is rumored to be raising the euro-Swissie floor, pushing investors even away from the safe-haven Swiss franc and sending the CHF down sharply against its counterparts; and

The day after Turkey Day is a curious session. Trading is generally thin and the mood is often focused on pictures of riotous shoppers. As a result, this day is usually positive.

Another factor weighing is the looming likelihood of a year-end rally. The time from Thanksgiving to year-end is seasonally very positive. While Sept. and Oct. are tough months, these final weeks are generally good. That’s not always the case, of course. The downdraft in 2008 made no pause for the gobblers.

About MarketBeat

MarketBeat looks under the hood of Wall Street each day, finding market-moving news, analyzing trends and highlighting noteworthy commentary from the best blogs and research. MarketBeat is updated frequently throughout the day, helping investors stay on top of what’s happening in the markets. Lead writers Paul Vigna and Steven Russolillo spearhead the MarketBeat team, with contributions from other Journal reporters and editors. Have a comment? Write to paul.vigna@wsj.com or steven.russolillo@wsj.com.