Season Preview: 54 Wins or Bust

On January 2, 2013, the Warriors beat the Los Angeles Clippers to secure a 22-10 start to their 2012-13 season. At the time, it was a number treated gingerly, even among relentlessly optimistic Warriors fans — a quirk of favorable scheduling and overachieving play, too good to be true. If the Warriors had held that blistering pace last season, they would have finished with the then-unimaginable total of 56 wins. How quickly expectations change. What was once inconceivable is now not only within reach, but even predicted by a brave few. The days of the underdog Warriors are gone. Now it’s time to play like the favorites.

Win projections are the NBA’s version of the Farmers’ Almanac — often cited and entirely speculative. An injury or an unexpected breakout star, on the Warriors or a playoff rival, can wipe out layers of underlying assumptions. So take these predictions for however little they’re worth.

My guess for the 2013-14 Warriors is 54 wins. That would be the highest total since 1991-92, when the team won 55 games only to be bounced in the first round of the playoffs. It would be the third highest total since the Warriors moved to the West Coast in 1962-63. In other words, the stage is set not just for a good year, but for a historic year. I arrived at my guess in two different ways.

First, I worked off of last season’s 47 wins as a starting point. I added up all the positives — Iguodala’s addition, a healthy Bogut, another year of experience for Curry, Thompson, Barnes and Jackson. I knocked off some wins for the negatives — the loss of Jack, Landry and Malone; uncertain chemistry. Taken together, the 2013-14 Warriors don’t feel like they’ll be 10 games better than the impressive team that preceded them. But they do feel, particularly with the continued emergence of Stephen Curry and a rejuvenated Andrew Bogut, like they could be at least 5 games better. I used the playoff performances, where Curry and Bogut were the game-changing forces on offense and defense, to gauge just how much better this team could be. With both players at full strength, I settled on a 7-game improvement for 54 total wins. If the new players are able to replicate some of the aggressive chemistry of last year’s squad, the bump could be even higher. On paper, you don’t have to squint too hard to see an elite team.

Second, I looked at the rest of the West to gauge how the Warriors stack up. I have the Clippers and Rockets as clearly superior teams. I’d also give the edge to the Thunder, so long as Westbrook returns in the first few weeks of the season. Every year I write off the Spurs as being over the hill — and every year they prove me wrong — but I’ll do it one more time. The playoff Warriors were nearly a match for them. The addition of Iguodala and his perimeter defense would have dramatically changed the face of that series in the Warriors’ favor. Another year on the bodies of Duncan, Ginobili and Parker will make the heroics a little bit harder to muster. I give the Warriors a very slight edge. I also have the Warriors over Memphis by a very narrow margin. The Grizzlies seemed to tread water this off-season while the rest of the West retooled. They’re a safe pick for 50 wins, but they don’t have the upside of this Warriors squad. If you slot the Warriors into the fourth seed in the West, that’s been around a 54-win team over the past 5 complete seasons (56, 55, 53, 54, 54).

Ultimately, a win total’s meaning depends on the numbers around it. It’s a ticket to the playoffs. The comparative number of wins determines whether it’ll be a seat in first class or coach. As the Warriors change their perspective — from underdog to potential power — they need to change their objectives. The Warriors shouldn’t care about whether they win 54, 64 or 44 games. They should be singularly focused on securing home court advantage in the playoffs. That means edging ahead of the Clippers or besting all the other division runner-ups. For a team looking to make a deep run into the post-season, having a relatively easy time in the first round can be a huge advantage — particularly for a team like the Warriors with lingering injury concerns. The Warriors always rave about the boost provided by Arena fans. Last year’s team was 28-13 at home, but sub-.500 on the road (19-22). More than any arbitrary number of wins, the Warriors’ goal for the 2013-14 season should be to secure as much of that post-season advantage as possible.

Adam Lauridsen

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With Barnes out, home opener, and higher expectations this year, do you expect:

a. minutes be damned attitude: starters 36-40+ minutes and letting them go all game to secure the home opening victory, even with the back to back coming the next day.

b. Popavich-ian mentality: MJax takes it easy on his starters, Limits Bogut to less than 30 minutes, Curry 35, regardless of final outcome, in order to preserve his respective fragile stars for the long haul.

or

c. Insert alternative answer here.

sludge

great info. thanks. I do not remember this exact play (great detail by you-awesome!), but I remember countless steals where he would rip the ball right out of an opponent’s hands. Impressively strong.

sludge

question for those that have comcast.

Last year CSNBAYAREA would have the games available via Comcast’s OnDemand demand service (through the cable box, not online) shortly after the games were played.

Anyone know if they will do that again this year?

Chris L

That’s a helluva good question, Sludge.

I hadn’t thought of that question specifically in reference to tonight, but now that you raise it, it occurs to me that it will be one of the most interesting things to watch tonight.

I really don’t know which way it might go either. Do you have a forecast/feeling?

Jackson has said the right things in the pre-season about not “needing to overplay” his main guys this year. But he also likes to remind us that he’s a “flow” coach. And in the past—including this pre-season—he hasn’t been able to resist playing his main players more than most other coaches would in similar situations (let alone Popovich!)

One “trigger” to watch is how Jackson reacts if it looks like his team is under-performing. If the game looks like it’s going badly—or in jeopardy—in the past Jackson hasn’t been able to resist playing his starters even more.

He’s going to want to win the home opener desperately (as we all want the W’s to do).

Popovich is an anomaly in *how much* he trusts and develops his bench—and will ride the tide with them rather than reverting prematurely to his starters when things get rough—and/or his team is underperforming overall.

So the question you raise will be interesting-as-hell to watch. How will Jackson handle/balance the need, on one hand, to win this home-opener, and the need to not overplay his main players on the other hand?

I’d only add that the question isn’t only: “how much to rest the starters?”—but also: “how best to develop growth, cohesion, and trust in the bench?”

I knew as soon as the question was submitted, you would be able add depth to it.

For tonight, I’m hopeful that Jackson does not overload the starters, but I’m realistic in acknowledging, that if behind, there aren’t many bench options for scoring.

My gut tells me that there may not be enough sample size at this point to identify his best substitution patterns.
So regarding tonight, the starters may be worked for long periods.. Curry about 36+, Lee 38, Ig and Thompson close to 40.. is my guess (if the game stays close).

Longer term, depending upon the length of Barnes absence, he may be forced (or feel forced) to revert to who he trusts the most, handling the bulk of the playing time-until he can establish his “supersub” 5.

Your more astute question:

“how much to rest the starters?”—but also: “how best to develop growth, cohesion, and trust in the bench?”

May require further observation before any real patterns can be recognized, or conclusions made.

Eric Eiserloh

“Barnes has put in a ton of work, too. Maybe too much.”

Maybe too much of the wrong kind of work. This guy is a wonderful talent, but he has lot’s to work on in his game, especially his tunnel vision and touch:

1) Better jumper from different distances.

2) ability to adjust his moves and alter his shot much better with defenders coming at him, even develop different kinds of touch on different kinds of shots

3) ability to diversify more off the post up or any other move using footwork and fakes, even drawing and making use of contact (a la Landry)

4) ability to pass out of his move, moreover make a pass that leads to a good shot for someone else

5) ability to defend without falling for every fake in the book

That’s five to start with

JanG

sludge:

I’m of the opinion that MJax will do whatever he needs to tonight to win the game. It’s important to get off to a good start and we’ve already seen him overplay the starters to secure the win. I’m already anticipating the scorn he’ll receive later after taking this approach. Damn the torpedoes and……

sludge

I like this list. Ability to pass out of his high post moves will be key. If he’s in the isolation and teams double him, how will he handle that pressure?

sludge

JanG:

I certainly can’t fault the coach for winning the game, whatever his strategy.

I’m of the same mentality I guess. I want the win to start the season so bad, as well. So I won’t be upset with either decision, no matter what he chooses.

I just hope it is not a harbinger of things to come. I’m hopeful that a good mix up sticking with his 5 and developing his bench will play itself out, if those bench players are given some floor time.

RickP

On the one hand, Jackson wants to win and he hasn’t been shy about extended minutes.
On the other hand, he’s gotta try his bench and he hasn’t hesitated to leave an unsuccessful lineup on the floor for uncomfortable lengths of time.
My wild guess is that he goes to the bench, it doesn’t work, he lets it go for too long, and the starters have to play catchup. But this is just a wild guess.
BTW I heard Greg Papa today on radio talking about exactly the thing I’ve been posting about. He pointed out that Jack handled in crunch time so that Curry could come off a double screen — which he identified as their favorite play. He said that he has seen Iggy handle in the open floor but needed to see more of him to know if he could replace Jack in running that play, or others.
The other announcer brought up some other teams that manage without a pure PG. Papa said that they run a triangle offense, which the W’s don’t. He implied that it can work, but the W’s are not organized that way. Sorry, I didn’t hear which teams were mentioned. My impression is that it was one or two.
Despite that, Papa apparently predicted 55-60 wins — but that was just at the moment I tuned in. I’m not certain that referred to the Ws.

Anybody watching Jack pick up right where he left off last season? Dubs are gonna miss him….

earl monroe

Andrew Bynum sighting he looks really good and jarret.jack up to old tricks looking good too

Thurston Hunger

Like sludge and JanG, MJax gets a pass tonight if indeed the game looks like and comes down to a nail-biter. Home opener after that post season, and all the hype that you know the players are aware of.

That being said, the onus to me is on the starters to come out with defensive intensity and a killer mentality. Xavier Henry should not surprise GS, not after seeing him so many times in the preseason. Nick Young as well…

The players need to give the gift of allowing MJax to go easy on the minutes by having those players go hard on the court.

Additionally, as in the playoffs, a staggered rotation CAN work, even with HB out. Or perhaps especially so…

Chris L

The question, though, also is whether the strategy of “overplaying” players always and automatically does lead to a win—even in a single game.

Game 1 against the Spurs (and against Popovich’s contrary strategy) was a painful lesson that “overplaying” players doesn’t even automatically lead to a win in the short term (let alone taking into account the potential longer term costs of the strategy).

Chris L

Jan G,

The question, though, also is
whether the strategy of “overplaying” players always and automatically
does lead to a win—even in a single game.

Game 1 against the Spurs (and against Popovich’s contrary strategy)
was a painful lesson that “overplaying” players doesn’t even
automatically lead to a win in the short term (let alone taking into
account the potential longer term costs of the strategy).

earl monroe

Michael Carter Williams doing work on Miami 7 steals and counting in the 3rd quarter

Not only did Miami look tired playing on a back to back they looked old, wade did not play and Philly pushed the pace nice coaching job by Brett brown also Evan turner 25 points

earl monroe

Looks like the knicks are dodging a bullet vs the bucks and the bucks played the whole game with the last man on the bench at point guard, they didn’t look good oh yeah and Larry sanders did not play also looked like Larry drew outcoached mike Woodson the Knicks did not break 90
Monroe out Camelot-ha ha

Camelot

Larry Sanders what happened?

Peter Moto

bogut’s fouls might limit his minutes, but otherwise expect him 30 or a little more. they will be inclined to show him off, with the publicity around his contract. there’s another factor that could moderate his minutes — how successful they are when lee is at center.

Peter Moto

the preacher made his position pretty clear last season about expecting to give his best players the biggest minutes. he was referring to the stretch run while they were qualifying for a post season seed, and the playoffs themselves, that the good teams he played for or watched shortened their rotations. he essentially ignored the trend in the past 6-8 seasons of coaches putting greater demands for consistent effort on defense, balanced with liberal doses of the bench.

when he feels pushed to put a game away, we should expect the same philosophy, exhibited recently in the loss to Sac. for the home opener, he’ll probably do the same if the game is close. if we want the minutes spread, they will have to break open a big lead.

Camelot

There ya go..

dr_john

open game thread is up

earl monroe

Sanders was out is hibbert injured? I saw him play last night

Camelot

both played limited minutes..

GwydionRhys

And I think he got fouled harder than anyone I’ve ever seen. Really lost some respect for the guys reffing back then.

RickP

First, the negatives:
Zip.
And, now, on to the positives.
Amazing game. I won’t try to cover all the great things that happened, but just say a few things. I loved the intensity. And, with all that activity and ball movement, very few TO’s.
Well, one negative. I didn’t think much of Speights’ game as I was watching it, but the box score showed more rebounds and assists than I would have guessed.

But I remember thinking that Nelson could’ve done more to ‘protect’ Sarunas back then.

I thought even then that it wouldn’t have been far-fetched to call how Sarunas was treated “prejudice” or “xenophobia.” Since the US-born NBA players didn’t know how to deal with Sarunas’ straight-ahead style, I thought the NBA officials actually did something like collude with them in allowing them to hammer Sarunas the way they did.

Sludge: What a game…nice blowout..too bad for Curry have an off night..oh well, hey, that is the only filipino phrase I know..I think of something else next time…Go Dubs tonight..let’s hope the good karma continues with our Dubs! Ya! 🙂