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Resources industry welcomes new Chinese leader

Updated
Fri 16 Nov 2012, 7:21 PM AEDT

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China's next president Xi Jinping.

AFP: Claudio Santana

"This is a generational change, it will become a more modern, a more western country, this will be the first time a Chinese president will use media, probably an iphone, to sell the government's messages."

He's been in Hong Kong, Beijing and Shanghai this week, meeting with senior government, finance and steel industry leaders to gauge their thoughts on the instalment of Xi Jinping as China's next president.

"There is a general optimism about the new leadership group, in fact it's a bit of a sigh of relief because the last ten years have been great for growth but not great for reform," Mr Kirchlechner said.

"It's very positive. No more enigmatic Hu Jintao, this is someone business and the people can relate too."

The leadership transition has taken several months and ends the 10 year reign of president Hu Jintao.

Australia's close trading ties with China means this period has had an impact, particularly on the mining industry.

Little economic stimulus was announced during the process, becoming another headwind for the resources sector on top of weak global economic conditions and falling commodity prices.

The manager of research at Bell Potter Securities, John Gleeson, says the appointment of a new leader has been a long and anxious wait for the mining industry.

"There has been a hiatus over the last few months, no new economic decisions being made," he said.

"Since the change, we've spoken to a few people in the industry who have dealings in China and they're very happy with the change of leadership and are now looking forward to seeing what their plans are," he said.

Duncan Calder from the Australia China Business Council says China's economic policies and political transitions directly affect WA's export industries.

However, he says the leadership transition was only one factor affecting the industry in recent weeks.

"The [Chinese] government has introduced policies to slow down the economy, they've been particularly tough on trying to correct the property bubble that's emerged in certain markets," he said.

"While the country is a major importer, it is a major exporter and the continuing woes of the Eurozone and the United States also impact China's export orientated producers."

Economic implications

China's economic growth rates over the past 30 years have averaged about 10 per cent, at some points reaching as high as 14 per cent.

But that rate recently dipped to 7.6 per cent, its lowest level in three years and Mr Calder believes the new leadership will maintain a level of between seven and 7.5 per cent.

"I think the new leadership group has a strong history of being committed to commercial development and to strong GDP growth and [that] obviously bodes well for Western Australia in particularly as the nation's major trading partner with China," he said.

Mr Calder says he doesn't believe the new leadership will revisit the huge stimulus packages implemented during the GFC.

"In the past it was high growth, and high growth at all costs, and that hasn't always been healthy for China," he said.

"I think the focus is now on high quality growth, per capita growth, rather than just growth at any expense.

"I don't think we'll see any huge economic stimulus at all, I think we will see a number of changes in policy and those easing of monetary policy and fiscal policy will be levers, carefully applied to increase activity in the economy."

Philip Kirchlechner agrees, but expects investment to reignite.

"We're unlikely to see any major stimulus but investment will absolutely start flowing, the focus should shift from government to private investment to stimulate consumer demand," he said.

Mr Calder believes the new leadership will now start developing and modernising smaller cities, outside the large capitals.

"I think we will see increased investment in second and third tier cities, that means more organisation, more buildings, more railways, more roads and of course more demand for our commodities, in particular our iron ore," Mr Calder said.

"The Rio Tinto, FMG, BHP, Atlas are all going to do well out of this leadership change, it should definitely bring some stability back to the market."

Optimism

The chairman and founder of Fortescue Metals Group Andrew Forrest is just one mining boss optimistic about what the change will bring for business.

He is confident the change has installed a new, revolutionary leader, keen to continue pulling Chinese people out of poverty.

"I have met with the new leader and I believe he is an empathetic, humble and passionate man, who is in support of his people," he said.

"I feel sure, while we've had excellent, economic performance out of China in the last 30 years, the next ten years will be the very best we have seen for China."

Mr Gleeson says the industry is keen to see how the leadership under Xi Jinping will act.

"He seems very keen to move people into the city, get things moving, build up the middle class so they can actually start sustaining their own economy by internal spending," he said.

But Mr Calder says his character will emerge over time.

"It's very early stages, it's hard to tell," he said.

"Certainly there are a number of political commentators who have expressed the view that his historical commitment and interest in GDP growth and developing the private sector of the economy will be very good China and in turn very good for Australia."

Relationship

The years of investment flowing thick and fast, without much effort, also appear to be over.

The Federal Resources Minister Martin Ferguson recently said he believes the mining industry 'got fat and lazy' during the boom years.

Mr Calder says now is the time to make sure Australia strengthens its ties with the Asian powerhouse.

"We always need to do more because China is so important to us and the driver of our future growth," he said.

"I think Australia has a good relationship with China, while Western Australia has a particularly good relationship with China.

"I think there are opportunities for governments' and businesses from Australia to collaborate better when they go to China."

Mr Kirchlechner believes Australia needs to become more open Chinese investment, if it's to strengthen that relationship.

"Chinese investment does not appear to be welcome in Australia and there is a negative attitude about it from Australian government and a media resistance to it," he said.

"A particularly strident official told me... 'right now Australia has short distance to China going for it, if it were as far away as Brazil we would not touch it because of frequent policy changes recently and anti-Chinese sentiment'."

But he does believe the relationship will become more transparent under Xi Jinping.

"It is already happening, they are reacting to the new world of media and will do more in terms of web based information and press conferences," he said.

"But, alas the free press is not possible, however, there will be more openness through a fairly open discussion on TV and in papers and perhaps more admittance of problems than before."