Friday, October 27, 2017

Ten ‘Shocking Predictions’ for Russia over the Next Six Months

Paul
Goble

Staunton, October 27 – In Russia, no
one can be certain of the past let alone the future, but Moscow writer Dmitry
Milin today offers what he calls “10 shocking predictions” about Russia in the near
future.Even if he is wrong on one or
more of these -- and he almost certainly will be-- they make a useful checklist of possibilities (rosbalt.ru/posts/2017/10/27/1656435.html).

The ten, some of
which appear completely fantastic but some of which seem not entirely
improbable, include:

1.Putin
wins re-election with 35 to 38 million votes, the smallest number in the history
of Russian presidential elections because of low turnout. Kseniya Sobchak finishes
second, and her support throws the existing political parties of the country
into crisis.

2.During
the upcoming presidential campaign, so much compromising material will be
published about Putin and his entourage that he will be seriously weakened,
possibly leading him to leave office before the end of his new term.

3.Aleksey
Navalny won’t be allowed to but, but after the March 2018 election, he will be
allowed to “register his marginal opposition party.”

4.“Medvedev
will move to St. Petersburg after the elections where he will head a unified
Constitutional-Supreme Court and carry out judicial reform which will most
likely be more successful than not.”

5.One
of Medvedev’s people will replace Poltavchenko as governor of St. Petersburg,
and that city “will become ‘the liberal capital’ of Russia, a place of growth in
an otherwise stagnating Russia and thus a point of attraction for investment
and cadres “from throughout Northern Europe.”

6.The
crisis of the existing political parties will lead to the appearance of a
strong new party, “the Russian analogue to ‘the Party of the Regions,’” and its
rise will push Russia in the direction of being “a real federation,” something
which “to the surprise of many will strengthen the unity of the country.”

7.“Moscow
will lose the status of being the only capital city: judicial power will pass
to St. Petersburg, the State Duma to Nizhny Novgorod, and the Federation
Council (which will be directly elected) to Kazan.”

8.The
US will introduce investment sanctions on Russia which will lead to a rise in
interest rates, a devaluation of the ruble, and money reforms.

9.The
Russian stock mark will fall to about 500, but having reached that “’bottom’”
will then began a slow by confident growth fueled by private investments by the
population.

10.The
pension age will rise to 65 for both men and women.Efforts to get Russians to save for
retirement through state accounts will fail but instead lead to the rebirth of
independent investment banks, “which in turn will lead to the growth of
long-term investments in the economy of Russia.”