Paul Ryan

December 11, 2014

PPP's early polling on who Democrats and Republicans in North Carolina would like as their candidate for President in 2016 finds that 5 different potential candidates hit double digits on the GOP side, while Hillary Clinton continues to be the overwhelming choice on the Democratic side.

Ben Carson leads the way for the Republicans with 19% to 15% for Jeb Bush, 14% each for Chris Christie and Mike Huckabee, 11% for Paul Ryan, 7% for Rick Perry, 5% each for Ted Cruz and Rand Paul, and 4% for Marco Rubio.

Carson's name recognition isn't as high as the other Republicans, but among those familiar with him 47% have a favorable opinion to just 12% with a negative one. Huckabee (67/17) and Bush (61/17) are also pretty popular with the Republican base, while feelings toward Christie (42/32) are considerably more mixed.

On the Democratic side Hillary Clinton continues to be pretty dominant. She's at 52% to 18% for Joe Biden, 7% for Elizabeth Warren, 5% for Bernie Sanders, 4% for Andrew Cuomo, 2% for Jim Webb, 1% for Martin O'Malley, and less than half a percent for Brian Schweitzer.

August 13, 2014

Raleigh, N.C. – The latest PPP poll shows that Republican Senator Rand Paul is still popular in his home state. Paul has an approval rating of 47% and a disapproval rating of 39%. In a potential reelection fight against current Democratic Governor Steve Beshear, Paul leads 50/41, a strong number considering that Beshear is also popular with a 48/34 approval/disapproval rating. When asked which of the state’s Senators they prefer 44% of residents chose Paul as opposed to only 26% who prefer Mitch McConnell. Among Republicans Paul is more popular by a 56/31 margin.

Paul has additional support in a potential Presidential bid; he leads in a potential matchup with Hilary Clinton 49/43, 25% of Republicans in the state support his candidacy against the rest of a wider primary field. However, only 34% of state residents want Paul to run for President in 2016 and fewer than half, 48%, of Republicans in the state believe that Paul should run for President.

-At least for now it looks like Paul would be a safe bet if he decided to run for reelection to the Senate in 2016. He has a 47/39 approval spread and in a hypothetical match up with his toughest potential opponent, Steve Beshear, he would lead by a 9 point margin at 50/41. The seat could get interesting if Paul decided not to run for reelection though- Beshear would lead Thomas Massie 45/30 in a hypothetical Senate contest.

-By an 18 point margin, 44/26, Kentuckians say that Paul is their favorite of the state's two Senators. Republicans in particular like Paul better than Mitch McConnell, 56/31, but Democrats like Paul more by a 32/24 spread as well.

The news is a little more mixed when it comes to Paul and a potential 2016 Presidential bid:

-Paul leads the Republican primary field with 25% to 18% for Mike Huckabee, 15% for Jeb Bush, 8% for Chris Christie and Marco Rubio, 7% for Ted Cruz, 5% for Scott Walker, 4% for Paul Ryan, and 3% for Bobby Jindal. Although it's always good to be in the lead Paul's standing doesn't seem particularly impressive for his home state, and it shows how formidable Huckabee will be if he actually ends up deciding to enter the race.

-Only 34% of voters in the state want Paul to run for President in 2016, compared to 50% who think he should sit it out. Nevertheless Paul performs the best of any potential GOP candidate in the state against Hillary Clinton, leading her 49/43. Clinton would also trail Bush 48/43 and Huckabee 47/44 in Kentucky but would hold leads over Chris Christie at 44/41 and Ted Cruz at 46/41.

August 12, 2014

Raleigh, N.C. – PPP's newest Alaska poll finds that voters in the state continue to hold a very dim view of Sarah Palin and any aspirations she might have about running for President in 2016. Only 36% of voters in the state have a favorable opinion of Palin to 55% who view her negatively. Just 20% would like to see her make a bid for the White House, compared to 74% who think she should sit it out. There's actually almost as many Democrats- 17%- who want Palin to run as there are Republicans- 23%- suggesting there are as many Alaskans who want to see her run for the entertainment value as because they actually want her to be President.

Palin finishes 6th when it comes to who Republican voters want to be the 2016 Presidential candidate in her home state. Ted Cruz leads with 16%, followed by Rand Paul at 15%, Mike Huckabee at 14%, Jeb Bush and Chris Christie at 12%, Palin at 11%, Scott Walker at 7%, Paul Ryan at 6%, and Marco Rubio at 5%.

PPP's newest Alaska poll finds that voters in the state continue to hold a very dim view of Sarah Palin and any aspirations she might have about running for President in 2016. Only 36% of voters in the state have a favorable opinion of Palin to 55% who view her negatively. Just 20% would like to see her make a bid for the White House, compared to 74% who think she should sit it out. There's actually almost as many Democrats- 17%- who want Palin to run as there are Republicans- 23%- suggesting there are as many Alaskans who want to see her run for the entertainment value as because they actually want her to be President.

Palin finishes 6th when it comes to who Republican voters want to be the 2016 Presidential candidate in her home state. Ted Cruz leads with 16%, followed by Rand Paul at 15%, Mike Huckabee at 14%, Jeb Bush and Chris Christie at 12%, Palin at 11%, Scott Walker at 7%, Paul Ryan at 6%, and Marco Rubio at 5%. Beyond the lack of enthusiasm for her among Republicans, Palin also has the dubious distinction of being the only potential GOP candidate who would trail Hillary Clinton in a head to head match up- Clinton leads Palin 46/40. The rest of the potential Republican hopefuls all lead Clinton by at least 8 points- Huckabee leads her 47/39, Bush has a 47/38 advantage, Christie is on top 45/34, and Paul has a 50/36 edge.

Of course Palin seems more interested in money making opportunities than seeking elected office again anyway- but her new internet TV channel isn't likely to get a lot of traction in Alaska- only 4% of voters in the state say they're interested in buying a subscription to it compared to 89% who say they won't and 7% who are unsure.

August 06, 2014

Raleigh, N.C. – The latest PPP poll in Arkansas has Hillary Clinton losing to each of the Republicans she was polled against in a potential 2016 Presidential race. Clinton trails Jeb Bush 41/46, Chris Christie 41/42, Ted Cruz 42/46, Mike Huckabee 39/55 and Rand Paul 42/45. Huckabee received by far the most support when Republicans were asked to select who they most wanted to see as their GOP candidate in 2016.

When given a choice of nine potential Republican candidates for president; Jeb Bush, Chris Christie, Ted Cruz, Mike Huckabee, Bobby Jindal, Rand Paul, Marco Rubio, Paul Ryan and Scott Walker, Mike Huckabee was the overwhelming choice in the state where he served as Governor. Huckabee received 33% support, 21 points ahead of the second place Cruz at 12%. Bush came in third receiving 10% support and no other candidate received more than 8% support. Huckabee received significantly more support from women than men. Among Republican women, 38% would pick Huckabee as the 2016 nominee whereas only 29% of Republican men would prefer Huckabee.

PPP's newest Arkansas poll finds that Mike Beebe has the best approval numbers of any Governor in the country that we have looked at in the last two years. 60% of voters overall approve of him to just 23% who disapprove. He's overwhelmingly popular with both Democrats (79/9) and independents (58/21) and is even narrowly approved of by Republicans (41/39).

John Boozman meanwhile is one of the lowest profile Senators in the country. A plurality of voters in the state- 38%- have no opinion about him one way or the other. 34% approve of him to 28% who disapprove. Boozman's big victory in 2010 was really a reflection on voters disliking Blanche Lincoln more than anything else, and it doesn't appear that Boozman has made much of an impression in his own right.

In a hypothetical 2016 Senate contest, Beebe leads Boozman 46-40. Of course given how close that is despite how overwhelmingly popular Beebe is and how anonymous Boozman is, that suggests about the only way this seat could be competitive in 2016 is if Beebe does run. But it does give another data point showing the extent to which 2014 is not 2010 in Arkansas- in January of 2010 we tested this same hypothetical Beebe/Boozman match up, before Boozman had even entered the Senate race, and found Boozman leading Beebe 44/43.

Arkansas is a rare state that is relatively enthusiastic about the prospect of having a native son jump into the 2016 Presidential race. 42% of voters in the state want Mike Huckabee to seek the White House to 45% who think he should sit it out. Although not quite a plurality in favor of him running it's the best we've seen for any potential GOP contender yet this cycle in their home state. 33% of Republicans in the state say Huckabee would be their top choice for the nomination to 12% for Ted Cruz, 10% for Jeb Bush, 8% for Chris Christie, 7% for Rand Paul, 6% for Scott Walker, 5% for Bobby Jindal, 4% for Marco Rubio, and 3% for Paul Ryan. Huckabee is particularly strong with women and seniors.

July 17, 2014

Raleigh, N.C. -- In the latest PPP poll Mississippi voters showed their support for the federally funded expansion of Medicaid with 51% of voters supporting it while only 32% of voters thought the state should not accept the expanded federal funding.

However, Republican Governor Phil Bryant who opposes Medicaid expansion still enjoys statewide support with 41% of voters approving of his job performance while 31% of voters disapprove. Bryant continues to enjoy a large amount of support from members of his own party, as 60% of Republicans approve of his job performance

The poll also found that in potential matchups for Governor Bryant would be favored to win reelection against two possible Democratic foes, Jim Hood and Brandon Presley. Additionally, Senator Roger Wicker has a 39% approval rating compared to only 26% disapproval.

PPP's new Mississippi poll finds that Phil Bryant will start out as a favorite for reelection in 2015. Bryant has pretty solid approval numbers with 41% of voters giving him good marks to 31% who disapprove. Democrats have a couple of potential candidates with positive favorability numbers. Attorney General Jim Hood has a 41/20 favorability rating and is respected across party lines with both Democrats (50/14) and Republicans (36/28) expressing positive opinions of him. Although he has only 33% name recognition, Public Service Commissioner Brandon Presley is on positive ground as well at 20/13. Nevertheless Bryant still leads both of those potential foes by double digits- 44/33 over Hood and 49/26 over Presley. As long as his approval numbers stay positive Bryant should be in pretty good shape.

Other notes from Mississippi:

-Mike Huckabee is the top choice of Republicans in the state to be their Presidential candidate in 2016. 25% say he'd be their pick to 16% for Jeb Bush, 11% for Ted Cruz, 8% for Chris Christie, 6% each for Rand Paul and Paul Ryan, 5% for Marco Rubio, 3% for Rick Santorum, and 2% for Scott Walker. Huckabee leads with both moderates and conservatives, and is particularly strong with women and seniors.

Hillary Clinton would make Mississippi more competitive than it's been in recent years, but it doesn't look like she'd have a great chance of actually winning the state. She trails Huckabee 49/42, Bush 47/42, Christie 45/42, and Paul 45/43 in hypothetical contests. She does at least manage a tie with Cruz at 44.

-Despite the overall conservatism of Mississippi, voters in the state do take the Democrats' side on a couple of key hot issues. Voters in the state support increasing the minimum wage to $10 an hour, 56/35. And they support expanding Medicaid, 51/32. Each issue has over 80% support from Democrats, and also gets at least 25% support from Republicans as well as from a plurality of independents.

July 08, 2014

Raleigh, N.C. – PPP’s newest Louisiana poll shows yet another state in which the race for the 2016 GOP Presidential nomination is wide open. Five different potential candidates garner at least 10% support from Republican primary voters, while none hit 20%.

Ted Cruz leads the way with 19%. Jeb Bush and Mike Huckabee follow closely behind with 17% each. Bobby Jindal (12%) and Rand Paul (10%) also get double-digit support, followed by Chris Christie with 6%. Marco Rubio and Paul Ryan receive 4% each. Jeb Bush leads among those self-described as moderate (22%) and somewhat conservative (20%), while Ted Cruz leads among the very conservative with 24%.

The top 6 Republican candidates are all neck-and-neck with Hillary Clinton in potential general election races. Bush and Huckabee both lead Clinton by 1 point at 46/45. Paul and Clinton are tied at 46% a piece, and Clinton leads Christie 46/42, Cruz 46/45, and Jindal 48/44.

PPP POLLS BY YEAR: 2006-2015

We came to PPP after a public poll in the San Jose Mayoral race showed our opponent ahead by 8 points. They found our candidate (Sam Liccardo) ahead by 3 points and that allowed us to be able to push back with the press against the perception that our opponent was now a strong favorite in the race. Sam ended up winning by 2 points and is now the next Mayor of San Jose. PPP worked very fast and had a very accurate read on the electorate when we needed them–Eric Jaye, Storefront Political Media.

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