The outlook for food supplies has deteriorated in several parts of
sub-Saharan Africa. Severe food shortages are emerging in Sierra Leone,
where agricultural production and food distribution activities have been
seriously disrupted by intensified civil strife and deaths from starvation
are already being reported from southern areas. In Liberia, despite the
ongoing peace process, a large number of displaced persons, particularly
in the south-west, remain virtually inaccessible and at risk. Food
security in Rwanda and Burundi remains precarious; mass repatriation and
resettlement of Rwandan refugees from Zaire in the coming months will pose
an immense challenge to the international community. Cereal output in
Somalia is anticipated to be sharply reduced from last year's, whilst
localized crop failures in southern Sudan could exacerbate the already
severe food supply situation in the affected areas. Large scale emergency
food distributions will be needed throughout the Horn of Africa for the
rest of 1995 and well into 1996 despite better production prospects. In
southern Africa, an estimated 10 million people are in need of emergency
food assistance following a drought-reduced harvest. Cereal stocks in the
sub-region are running perilously low, sharply reducing the margin of
safety against a crop failure in 1996. Although growing conditions are
generally favourable in the Sahelian countries in western Africa, Desert
Locusts pose a potential threat in some parts.

It is already clear that sub-Saharan Africa will remain reliant on
substantial food aid in 1996. However, global food aid availabilities in
1995/96 are projected to be the lowest since the mid-1970s due to tight
world cereal supplies and the serious budgetary constraints for some food
aid donors. High international prices of cereals this year and limited
availability of foreign exchange will severely constrain the capacity of
many African countries to import cereals commercially to meet food
shortages. In the short-term, the solution lies in a) mobilizing adequate
financial assistance to the low-income food- deficit countries (LIFDCs) in
the region to alleviate balance-of- payments problems and b) providing
exceptional food aid to countries affected by food emergencies. Without
these measures, the minimum food needs of the region in 1995/96 will
remain unmet, leading to further human suffering and loss of life in the
months ahead. In the medium to long-term, national food security in the
LIFDCs in the region would be best safeguarded through sustainable
increases in food production and productivity, and a significant reduction
in yield variation.

FOOD SUPPLY POSITION DETERIORATING IN SIERRA LEONE, WHILE LARGENUMBERS REMAIN AT RISK IN LIBERIA

Critical food shortages are emerging in Sierra Leone as a result of
intensified fighting. The food supply situation is particularly tight in
the Bo and Kenema regions in the south, where famine conditions are
developing and hundreds of hunger-related deaths have already been
reported. Repeated ambushes on roads and the indiscriminate killing of
travelling civilians are impeding normal trade activities and the
distribution of relief assistance. The area planted to all crops this year
is below average, notably in southern and eastern provinces due to civil
strife. Problems of seed availability, insecurity and subsequent
population displacement have severely disrupted planting. Rice and cassava
fields have been destroyed in many areas and cereal production in 1995 is
anticipated to be well below last year's outturn, despite favourable
weather conditions. The estimate of displaced people in the country varies
from 730 000 to over a million people. Significant food aid will be
required in the year ahead, due to large scale population displacement,
reduced production of food and cash crops, the lack of foreign exchange
and the limited capacity of the Government to import food commercially.

In June, a Mission fielded by FAO's Office of Special Relief Operations
(OSRO) made an assessment of the agricultural sector, especially the
impact of civil strife on food production. The Mission estimated that
approximately 2 million people have been directly affected by the civil
strife, of which approximately 1.4 million are farmers. The Mission
recommended support to a strategy of diversification for the second 1995
season starting in September. This will enable destitute farmers to plant
vegetables, roots and tubers, as well as limited quantities of groundnuts
and maize. FAO is coordinating emergency assistance for the supply of
essential agricultural inputs to conflict-affected farmers.

In Liberia, cereal production has been decimated by the collapse of the
infrastructure and marketing systems. The prolonged civil strife has
disrupted virtually all economic activity and caused massive population
displacement. The current food shortage is critical and can be expected to
continue unless adequate food assistance is pledged, coupled with special
measures to expedite delivery and internal distribution. The number of
refugees in neighbouring countries is presently estimated at 725 000:
Guinea (397 000), C$BEU(Be d'Ivoire (305 000), Ghana (16 000), Nigeria (4
000) and Sierra Leone (3 000). In addition, up to 1 million people are
internally displaced.

Following the peace agreement in August 1995 and inauguration of the
transitional government, activity is slowly returning to normal and there
are indications that people are returning home in small numbers. As of
early September, some 12 000 refugees had already returned from
neighbouring countries. However, with job opportunities scarce,
particularly in urban areas, emergency assistance will continue to be
required throughout 1996.

Humanitarian organizations have started to distribute food to some 330 000
affected people in the centre of the country. Nevertheless, in the
south-west, about 230 000 displaced persons still remain inaccessible and
suffer from food shortages. ECOMOG has recently started the disarmament of
soldiers. A developmental programme is also underway for income generation
to support efforts in the country to recover from the present conflict.

MILLIONS STILL VULNERABLE IN THE HORN OF AFRICA DESPITE SATISFACTORYCROP PROSPECTS

Crop prospects are generally favourable in most parts of the Horn of
Africa. However, output is unlikely to be sufficient to cover requirements
in most countries. Current indications are that continued emergency food
assistance will be required well into 1996 for large number of people in
areas which have suffered crop failures.

In Somalia, recent inter-clan fighting again threatens to disrupt national
food supplies, raising concern for food security. The recently harvested
1995 cereal crop is estimated to be substantially smaller than last year's
below-normal crop. Relief operations are also being seriously impeded.

Cereal production in the 1995 main "Gu" season was adversely affected by a
sharp reduction in the area planted of sorghum, due to low market prices,
dry spells earlier and flood damage in the Juba and Shabelle valleys.
Other constraints to production included pest infestations, particularly
quelea birds and army worm in the sorghum growing Bay region, lack of
agricultural inputs and shortage of labour. Total cereal production in the
main Gu season, is provisionally estimated to be about 20 percent less
than last year.

Whilst widespread food shortage has so far been prevented by high levels
of carryover stock, the food situation remains extremely difficult for
large numbers of people without adequate resources. Serious security
incidents since the second half of September have hampered the
distribution of relief assistance. Frequent closures of Mogadishu port
have further impeded trade operations and economic activity and have
resulted in hoarding of foodstuffs by merchants. Malnutrition and
starvation continue to be reported from several areas including the
southern port of Kismayo, the capital Mogadishu, where nutritional surveys
have revealed 25 percent malnutrition among children under five years of
age, and from camps in the Lower Juba. The political situation remains
very tense and the food emergency could deepen further with an escalation
of hostilities.

In Ethiopia, abundant rains in July and August resulted in localized
floods though generally benefited the 1995 main season cereal and pulse
crops, particularly in some eastern parts which were previously affected
by dry spells. Distribution of fertilizers is reported to have been
adequate and timely. Crops are in good condition and the early outlook for
the 1995 main season cereal and pulse crops, to be harvested from late
October, is generally favourable. However, dry spells in May and early
June in belg areas, where the belg rains allow planting of long-cycle
maize and sorghum crop, are likely to have a negative effect on the yields
of maize, which is less resistant than sorghum to dry weather. Moreover,
in southern and eastern zones (East Shoa, North Omo, East Hararge and West
Hararge) the onset of meher rains was about two weeks late, delaying
planting of the "teff" crop, rendering it more susceptible to early
withdrawal of rains.

Output of the recently harvested belg crops is estimated at 395 000 tons,
more than last year though still below normal. In some highland areas of
North Wollo, South Wollo, North Shoa and North Omo zones, where the Belg
crop is an important component of annual food supply, output was reduced
due either to late, excessive, or below-average rains.

Despite satisfactory crop prospects, substantial emergency food assistance
will be needed for the rest of 1995 and possibly well into 1996.
Currently, over 4 million people are in need of food assistance until the
next harvest.

In Eritrea, normal to above-normal rains during August in most growing
areas of the country favoured cereal crops. Cumulative precipitation since
the beginning of the season has generally been similar to or greater than
last year, except in pocket areas in the southern highlands. However,
Desert Locusts pose a serious threat to crops and international assistance
is urgently required to avoid further damage.

Following a good cereal harvest last year, food aid is only being
distributed to vulnerable sections of the population. The food aid
requirement until the end of 1995 is fully covered by current stocks.
However, some 900 000 vulnerable people continue to rely on food aid for
subsistence.

In Sudan, generally normal rains during August benefited cereal crops, to
be harvested from November. However, in some areas of Gedaref, Sennar,
Kosti, North Darfur and Renk, precipitation since the beginning of the
season has been insufficient and planting was delayed. In south-eastern
parts, rainfall since mid-July provided relief to crops previously
affected by dry spells, but came too late to avoid crop losses in
localized areas of Eastern Equatoria. An FAO Crop Assessment Mission is
currently making an evaluation of the situation. Despite a bumper 1995
cereal harvest, emergency relief assistance is required for about 1.2
million people affected by the civil war, particularly in the south.

A series of FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment Missions and GIEWS
staff visits are planned to the Horn of Africa later in the year to review
the outcome of the 1995 harvest and estimate cereal import and food aid
requirements for 1996. (See box on page 5)

PRECARIOUS FOOD SECURITY SITUATION IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION

The food supply outlook for substantial numbers of internally displaced
people, refugees and other vulnerable groups remains unfavourable in
countries of the Great Lakes region. At the same time, large-scale
repatriation and resettlement of refugees, particularly to Rwanda,
scheduled in the next few months, will pose a serious challenge to the
international community.

In Rwanda, outlook for the 1996 first season foodcrops, now being planted,
is poor. Massive displacements of population, shortages of labour and
assets and increasing numbers of farm households headed by women as a
consequence of the 1994 civil war will continue to restrict plantings and
husbandry of the 1996 first season crops. Despite partial recovery in food
production in the last crop season, the food supply situation remains
extremely tight for about 800 000 vulnerable people. This includes an
increasing number of households headed by women, returnees with no land,
refugees and internally displaced persons who came back late for the
planting season and families with limited resources. Emergency food
assistance continues to be necessary for this section of the population.
The return of refugees to the country in past months has been limited,
though large scale repatriation from Zaire is expected in the next few
months.

In Burundi, 1995 food production remained below normal for the third
consecutive year and prospects for food supplies in 1996 continue to be
jeopardized by ethnic tensions. The political situation is volatile and
security remains extremely precarious. Renewed fighting in several areas
of the country in past weeks, mainly in Cibitoke, Bubanza and Muyinga
provinces, have resulted in fresh waves of refugees and internally
displaced people further disrupting agricultural activities and hampering
relief operations. Whilst overall food production increased last season,
continuous emergency food aid is required for large numbers of internally
displaced and dispersed persons and returnees. International support for
agricultural rehabilitation and reconstruction is also needed.

In Tanzania, despite a satisfactory 1995 main season harvest, the food
situation remains tight for some 307 000 people in 13 regions affected by
drought and pests. Crops this year were also affected by floods. The
Government has launched a programme to distribute food using carryover
stocks of food aid. The country still hosts some 693 000 refugees from
Rwanda and Burundi. The slow pace of repatriation and the volatile
political situation in the sub-region, means that continued food
assistance will be needed by refugees well into 1996.

In Zaire, the food supply situation remains tight, particularly in urban
areas. High inflation, unemployment and economic difficulties are severely
affecting poorer segments of the population. Food distribution is
continuing in the Rwandan refugee camps in the north- east. The
repatriation of Rwandan refugees near Goma, started by the Government of
Zaire in August, was stopped after negotiation with the UN. However,
tensions between local inhabitants and refugees are reportedly rising.
Following an agreement between the Government of Zaire and UNHCR, all
Rwandan refugees (numbering over 1 million) are to be repatriated by 31
December 1995.

FURTHER RELIEF ASSISTANCE REQUIRED IN SEVERAL COUNTRIES IN SOUTHERNAFRICA

Due to drought earlier in the year, which reduced production, the food
supply situation in most parts of southern Africa is becoming tighter.
Large cereal stocks held at the beginning of the marketing year,
particularly in South Africa and Zimbabwe, are being rapidly depleted. A
significant increase in the price of foodstuffs has already been reported
from several countries, gradually eroding the purchasing power of a wide
section of the population. Unless adequate supplies are ensured through
imports, prices will rise sharply in the lean period, starting early 1996,
with serious implications for the poorer segments of the population.

The economic benefits expected as a result of improved security conditions
in the sub-region have been seriously compromised by recurrent droughts in
recent years. As a result, most countries are facing economic difficulties
and will need donor assistance to meet part of their cereal shortfall. The
sub-region's 1995/96 cereal import requirement is estimated at 5 million
tons, including 1 million tons of food aid. Deliveries of food, however,
appear to be slow in many countries and further pledges of food aid are
needed, coupled with measures to expedite delivery and internal
distribution.

Given a precarious food supply situation, the outcome of the 1996 harvest
will be crucial for food security in the sub-region. Poor 1996 harvests
could result in an unprecedented emergency in the sub-region, leading to a
substantial increase in the number of people dependent on emergency
assistance, presently numbering 10 million. The situation calls for close
monitoring of the 1995/96 cropping season.

Donor response to the recent UN-organized round-table conference on the
reconstruction of Angola's war-ravaged economy has been encouraging. The
international community has pledged a total of U.S.$ 993 million to help
the implementation of the reconstruction plan. This includes U.S.$ 207
million in humanitarian assistance for mine-clearing, food aid and
essential health care and U.S.$ 786 million for rehabilitation and
development in 1996/97, particularly reintegration of refugees,
demobilization and reintegration of soldiers and creation of employment
generating activities. Proposed projects include community-level
productive activities in agriculture, forestry and small scale industries,
as well as rehabilitation of roads, bridges, water and sanitation systems.

OVERALL CROP PROSPECTS FAVOURABLE IN THE SAHEL, BUT DESERT LOCUSTSPOSE THREAT IN SOME AREAS

Harvest prospects are generally favourable in the Sahelian countries. No
problems of seed availability were encountered, following aboveaverage
/record crops in 1994. Although the rainy season arrived late in
some areas, notably Burkina Faso, overall precipitation so far has been
regular and well distributed. Rainfall was abundant in late August and
early September, causing flooding in some areas of Chad. Following dry
conditions in September, rainfall distribution in Senegal, southern
Mauritania, western Mali, central Niger and in Chad, improved
significantly in early Ocrober, providing increased soil moisture reserves
for late planted or long cycle crops. Although dry spells occurred in
Burkina Faso and northern Senegal, soil moisture reserves were generally
adequate.

Crop conditions are mostly satisfactory. Millet and sorghum are nearing
maturity and harvesting is about to begin in Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger and
Chad. Abundant rainfall in late August and September in Guinea-Bissau and
southern Senegal assisted the desalination of swamps and transplanting of
rice. Harvest prospects are generally favourable and average to
above-average crops are anticipated in most countries. Pastures have
developed well in the agropastoralist zones but are now drying, which
might lead to a concentration of isolated Desert Locusts and formation of
small groups. Small swarms have been reported in August and September in
Mauritania and northern Senegal. Exceptionally heavy and widespread
rainfall in western and northern Mauritania during the second half of
September also favoured infestation. In northern Senegal, small swarms
will move southwards. Isolated adults are also present in parts of Mali,
Niger and Chad. (See box on page 9)

A series of joint FAO/CILSS Crop Assessment Missions will be fielded in
mid-October to all CILSS member countries to forecast 1995 production. The
findings of these missions will be presented at the Network for Prevention
of Food Crises in the Club du Sahel (OECD) meeting in Niamey in late
November.

Eastern Africa: A series of FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment
Missions are planned to the Horn of Africa later in the year to review the
outcome of the 1995 cereal harvest and estimate cereal import and food aid
requirements for 1996. On-the-spot appraisals will be carried out in
Eritrea, Ethiopia and Sudan in November-December. Following reports of
crop losses, a GIEWS Crop Assessment Mission is already making an
evaluation in southern Sudan. The Missions will examine available
information on cropped area, expected yield, total crop production and
state of cereal crops at harvest in main growing areas. Supply/demand
analyses for staple foods will be prepared including an assessment of
consumption, import and structural and emergency food aid requirements for
the year ahead. The Missions will also review port handling capacities and
other logistic aspects including road, rail and river transport sectors as
applicable and needs for airlifting operations. A GIEWS staff visit is
currently being undertaken to Kenya to review the outcome of the long
rains crops and assess the food supply outlook for the country. The
security situation in Somalia presently precludes an assessment of cereal
output and import requirements. However, should conditions improve in the
near future, a review of the food situation will be considered.

GIEWS Crop and Food Supply Assessment Missions will be fielded to Rwanda
and Burundi in late December 1995/early January 1996 to assess the outcome
of the 1996 first season foodcrops and estimate cereal and pulse import
requirements for 1996.

Western Africa: In drought-prone Sahelian countries of West Africa,
overall harvest prospects are generally favourable so far. However, in
some parts, the late start of the rains or below-normal precipitation are
likely to have an adverse impact on production. Infestation by Desert
Locusts may also threaten crops in some areas, notably Mauritania and
northern Senegal. As part of its regular monitoring programme, GIEWS plans
to send a series of Crop Assessment Missions to the sub-region in October.
The Mission will work in close collaboration with the DIAPER (Diagnostic
Permanent) programme, the Permanent Interstate Committee for Drought
Control in the Sahel (CILSS) and national governments. The missions will
visit Burkina Faso, Cape Verde, Chad, The Gambia, Guinea-Bissau, Mali,
Mauritania, Niger and Senegal. Their results will be presented to a
meeting of the Network for Prevention of Food Crises of the Club du Sahel
(OECD) in Niamey on 23 and 24 November 1995.

Following the peace agreement signed in August 1995 and subsequent
improvement of the security situation, a GIEWS Crop and Food Supply
Assessment Mission is tentatively planned in October/November to Liberia
to assess 1995 foodcrop production and estimate cereal import and food aid
needs of the country for 1996.

SEVERAL COUNTRIES STILL NEED ASSISTANCE WITH THE DISPOSAL OF SURPLUSES

A smaller cereal harvest in 1995, particularly in southern Africa, will
reduce the level of exportable surplus in 1995/96, to meet the import
deficit of neighbouring countries. As a result, a substantial portion of
the import requirement of coarse grains will have to be met from outside
the region. Nevertheless, donor assistance is still needed with the
disposal of an estimated 48 000 tons of surplus held by South Africa,
Mozambique and Botswana. Such assistance will encourage production at both
the national and regional level.

As a result of above-average production last year, a substantial coarse
grains surplus is available in western Africa. As countries in the region
are now entering the harvest period, the remaining surplus will be carried
forward to the new marketing year. The exact volume of 1995/96 surplus
will only be known on completion of the FAO/CILSS Missions in November
1995. Nevertheless, due to generally favourable conditions, an average to
above-average harvest is expected. A substantial surplus, therefore, is
likely to be available in several countries in the months ahead.

In eastern Africa, following a good 1994 crop, Sudan has some 150 000 tons
of surplus sorghum still available for export. Elsewhere in the
sub-region, there is a surplus of maize available in southern parts of
Uganda.

In southern Africa, following poor 1995 production, little exportable
surplus will be available in Zimbabwe and South Africa for the remainder
of the season. This has serious repercussions for a number of countries in
the sub-region facing food deficit, which have traditionally depended on
South Africa and Zimbabwe to meet their import needs. Donor assistance for
local purchases will need to be continued in 1995 in the northern
provinces of Mozambique, where at least 25 000 tons of surplus maize are
available.

AFRICA'S FOOD AID NEEDS REMAIN HIGH, THOUGH GLOBAL FOOD AIDAVAILABILITY IN 1995/96 IS FORECAST TO BE THE LOWEST SINCE THE MID-
1970S

Although the level of cereal import requirement in the region in 1995/96
will depend on the outcome of the main 1995 crop, in countries of east and
west Africa, it is already clear that aggregate cereal import requirement
will remain high in the new marketing year. Due to the higher cost of
imports and shortage of foreign exchange in most of the main cereal
deficit countries, a considerable share of food imports will have to be
met by food aid. FAO, however, forecasts that global availability of
cereal food aid in 1995/96 will be 7.6 million tons, which is 1 million
tons less than last year, down for the third consecutive year and the
smallest since the mid-1970s.

The cereal import requirement of 19 countries which have already entered
the 1995/96 marketing year is estimated at 8.7 million tons, some 26
percent more than last year. The cereal food aid need of these countries
is estimated at 1.4 million tons. The bulk of food aid is required in
Angola, Mozambique, Malawi and Somalia. Cereal food aid pledges to these
19 countries, including those carried over from 1994/95, amount to some
890 000 tons of which only 320 000 tons have been delivered so far.

The aggregate cereal import requirement of Sub-Saharan Africa in 1994/95
is estimated at 12 million tons, comprising 8.3 million tons of commercial
imports and 3.7 million tons of food aid. While undelivered food aid
pledges carried forward from the previous year and new allocations
reported to GIEWS as of early October fully cover these requirements, only
2.7 million tons have been received so far.

AREAS OF PRIORITY ACTION

Human suffering continues in several parts of sub-Saharan Africa. Serious
food shortages are emerging in Sierra Leone, whilst a large number of
displaced persons remains inaccessible in Liberia. Large numbers of
refugees in the Great Lakes region face uncertain food supply prospects.
Additional pledges are required for millions of drought-affected people in
southern Africa, while continued emergency assistance will be needed in
the Horn of Africa well into 1996. Against this background, attention of
the international community is drawn to the following:

First, there is an urgent need for additional food aid pledges and
assistance with the distribution of relief, particularly to the large
number of inaccessible people in both Sierra Leone and Liberia.

Second, the mass repatriation and resettlement of Rwandan refugees in the
coming months, requires the international community to develop
well-coordinated contingency plans.

Third, an additional allocation of food aid is needed for droughtaffected
countries in southern Africa.