Bettors think Overeem is a slight favorite. Current odds put him at -150 to Lesnar’s +120, meaning he has about a 55-60 percent chance of winning the heavyweight fight.

Consider, however, the circumstances that shadow his preparation for Lesnar. Overeem is on his own as a fighter after a half-decade of success with Golden Glory. He left the team in September and set up shop at Xtreme Couture in Las Vegas. But according to those within the camp, he was barely seen in the gym and spent the bulk of his time at a private facility run by Vitor Belfort, where his training partners were kept under wraps.

Then came a lawsuit aimed at freeing Overeem from his contract with Golden Glory, and his sudden departure to Holland to care for his ailing mother. There, he kept company with a few loyal friends from his previous affiliation and flew in ex-UFC heavyweight and former opponent Todd Duffee to keep himself sharp. In between training sessions, he tended to family.

And nearly gotten himself taken off tonight’s fight card.

Missing a pre-fight test for performance-enhancing drugs, Overeem was summoned before the Nevada State Athletic Commission via telephone to explain his sudden absence and disconnect with the commission in completing the test overseas. He was issued a conditional license and ordered to undergo additional drug testing, but he emboldened longtime critics who believe he has chemical assistance.

Most fighters make a point of shutting off themselves from the distractions of the outside world, but in Overeem’s case, the distractions undoubtedly crossed from the public to the personal in the three months since he signed to fight Lesnar.

The noise emanating from the former heavyweight champ’s camp is absent leading into the bout. But his struggles are public record, and though incomplete, not insignificant.

What we do know is that Lesnar underwent surgery in May to repair the damage wrought by a second bout with the intestinal disorder diverticulitis, and that he hasn’t fought since Cain Velasquez stopped him in the first round with strikes and took his belt at UFC 121 a full 14 months ago. We know that the surgery was a success, that he quickly regained the bulk that he lost during his illness, and that 12 inches of his lower digestive tract are no longer present in his body.

Much of the rest is conjecture: how he’s trained, how much he’s trained, and how well he’s trained. There are public representatives such as UFC heavyweight Pat Barry and trainer Marty Morgan, who assure everyone that Lesnar is the same guy he was before illness struck a second time and that the raw power he brings to the cage hasn’t dissipated.

Lesnar is touted as a genetic freak of nature, but in this case, is that enough to overcome what was deemed a career-killer – major surgery – the first time he grappled with diverticulitis, and do the historic complications of such an invasive surgery not apply to him?

This we’ll see tonight. It’s anyone’s guess whether Lesnar’s health problems and ring rust make him more vulnerable in the cage, or if Overeem’s personal problems are such that he’s less than prepared for a fighter with a fraction of his experience but possessing a skill set that’s felled several of the world’s top heavyweights. In a way, skills of both cancel out the potential problems. Overeem is distracted for the bout, but in theory, enough of a professional to focus and recall the kickboxing tools that make him great. Lesnar doesn’t have the recent cage time, much less the overall experience, but he has such a far superior wrestling base that he might not need either to put Overeem where he really doesn’t want to be.

What’s certain is that these issues make the simple striker vs. grappler pairing a lot more complicated. Overeem is light years above Lesnar in striking, and Lesnar is light years beyond Overeem in wrestling. But can they do what they do best, given the circumstances?

A few scenarios to consider:

1) Lesnar charges out of gate: Overeem defended takedown after takedown against his most recent opponent, Fabricio Werdum, and managed to stay on his feet for the bulk of the fight. But Werdum is a jiu-jitsu specialist, and Lesnar is a former NCAA Division I national wrestling champion. There is no comparison. Lesnar has the power to drive Overeem through the canvas, but he has to assume his opponent’s sharp knees will be at the ready. Therefore, it’s far more likely that he hangs out just enough to get Overeem guessing on when the shot will come.

2) Overeem lands an early shot: It’s now well documented that Lesnar’s ability to take direct punishment is nowhere near that of other heavyweights. Those who’ve applied aggressive, forward pressure have seen him wither under punches. Overeem is a power puncher through and through, and if he catches the former champ with a punch, it’s game over. Against Werdum, however, he was thoroughly gun shy in letting his hands go, and as of late, he’s gravitated toward swinging hooks rather than straight and tight jabs and crosses. That could leave him exposed to …

3) Lesnar catches Overeem on the way in: Don’t laugh. Overeem is powerful, but he’s also predictable in the way he stalks forward and throws power hooks and knees up the middle. Lesnar could very well catch him on the way in, and if there’s any under-examined element of the fight, it’s that Overeem has not taken a solid punch from a heavyweight in four years. As a light heavyweight, his early record is pockmarked with knockout losses. Imagine Lesnar’s 5XL mitts landing near Overeem’s temple or jaw, and you very quickly see the danger, which is compounded by the uncertainty he puts in the kickboxer’s head about a takedown.

The lightweights are two of the most game fighters in the division, if not the sport. They always come to fight, they always engage, and stalling isn’t much in their combat vocabulary.

Now, you can have your opinion on who has the better skills and who has the superior style. But to see the two nearly come to blows at the pre-event press conference after a well-documented (and some would say overblown) incident at an open workout, well, that just adds a whole other dimension of excitement.

It also raises the question of who has the cooler head. The usually laid-back Cerrone was dead serious at the weigh-ins, which could mean he’s too emotional and prone to mistakes. Diaz is always angry at everyone, and in true Diaz fashion, he’s made some mistakes inside the cage (like moving to welterweight, leaving his arm out for Hermes Franca, and kicking a downed Jason “Mayhem” Miller during an infamous in-cage Strikeforce brawl).

Cerrone, a veteran of the muay Thai circuit before his foray into MMA, brings all the tools of his former trade to bear plus a serious ability to take a punch. Diaz can take a punch, too, but he’s more apt to lean on his boxing ability.

Historically, though, Diaz falls prey to strong wrestlers. Cerrone got caught in a guillotine choke and was outpointed by now-UFC contender Ben Henderson, but his setbacks almost end there. Both prefer to stand and trade punches. But for Diaz, a quick grab of Cerrone’s neck or arm is perhaps his best chance to stop an onslaught of heavy punches, kicks and knees from his Terminator-like opponent. It’s Cerrone’s job to stay tight with his strikes and pick apart his fiery opponent.

Cerrone, who’s gone on a tremendous tear in 2011, stands to break into the top-five with a win over Diaz. And Diaz’s stock would soar with an upset.

Point is, there’s a variety of intriguing outcomes, all of which are exciting. Did we need to gussy up things?

In other main-card action, perennial welterweight contender Jon Fitch (23-3-1 MMA, 13-1-1 UFC) returns to the cage for the first time since his draw with B.J. Penn at UFC 127. He meets blue-chip prospect Johny Hendricks (11-1 MMA, 6-1 UFC) in what many believe to be yet another stopover fight in a fruitless quest to get another title shot at champ Georges St-Pierre. While a more decorated collegiate wrestler than Fitch, Hendricks has far less high-level experience and command of grappling in MMA. There are few fighters who control opponents better than Fitch, so Hendricks likely will try to let his fists do the talking. Fitch, as always, will mix striking with smothering takedowns and try to grind down his lesser-known opponent.

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