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Sunday, March 16, 2014

Oscar Predictions 2014: Round One

The Oscars happened two weeks ago today, did you hear? To commemorate the 336 hours or so that have transpired since the ceremony, I'm looking 8,424 hours into the future, and posting my annual ridiculously early Oscar predictions. Don't laugh too hard; twoyears running, I've gotten lucky enough to peg five of the nine eventual nominees a whole year out. But this isn't rocket science: I'm looking first for directors in whom I have faith, then big, buzzy stars in big, buzzy movies, and, finally, important/interesting subject matter. Without further ado, my disgustingly early Oscar picks for 2014:

1. Inherent Vice

Picking a film for the pole position this year is much more difficult than the last two, which each featured a legendary director (Spielberg, Scorsese) working on a near-perfect project for their talents (Lincoln, The Wolf of Wall Street). Paul Thomas Anderson (There Will Be Blood, Boogie Nights, The Master) is among the biggest names releasing a film this year, and his overdue status has me slotting his film #1... for now.

2. Trash

Stephen Daldry has directed just four films, scooping up three Best Director and three Best Picture nominations in the process. Love him or hate him, there's no reason to start betting against Oscar's golden child just yet.

3. Big Eyes

Tim Burton has yet to really make a splash at the Oscars, but something about a 'mature Burton feature' sounds just to their liking. Early word has Amy Adams delivering a powerhouse lead performance, which would keep the film on voters' minds.

4. Into the Woods

Rob Marshall has already directed one musical to a Best Picture win (Chicago), and with a cast featuring the likes of Meryl Streep, Johnny Depp, Anna Kendrick, Emily Blunt, and more, there's a lot to like here. Simply put, 2014 will feature an abnormal amount of musicals, and if none of them get in, I'll eat my hat.

5. Boyhood

An ambitious undertaking that's already been seen and lauded by many, writer/director Richard Linklater, despite immense support, has yet to make a real splash on Oscar night. This could be his meal ticket.

5. Foxcatcher

Much like Daldry, director Bennett Miller (Capote, Moneyball) has yet to receive anything but love from Oscar. Steve Carrell in a juicy villainous role doesn't hurt either.

6. Gone Girl

Yes, David Fincher (Fight Club, The Social Network) is an overdue American treasure, but given that his The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo didn't crack the line-up, it's tough to have too much faith in the similar-sounding adaptation of a popular mystery novel.

7. Unbroken

Angelina Jolie directing a WWII flick written by the Coen brothers? So many story lines! Now all it needs to do is be good, and I feel wholly unqualified to say whether or not Jolie can pull that off.

8. Intimidation Game

The story of Alan Turing is yet another WWII picture gunning for Oscar glory, and Benedict Cumberbatch in a meaty lead performance sounds enticing. It's off-the-radar director Morten Tyldum who gives me pause.

9. Untitled Cameron Crowe Project

A war-tinged love story with an absolutely stacked cast (Emma Stone, Rachel McAdams, Bradley Cooper, Bill Murray, and a boat-load of others). It's been a while since Crowe (Almost Famous, Jerry McGuire) has sat at the big-kids table, but this could be his comeback.

10. Birdman

Alejandro González Iñárritu (Babel, 21 Grams) has yet to helm a flick that didn't receive at least some love from Oscar, and this showbiz tale starring Michael Keaton, Emma Stone, Naomi Watts, Edward Norton, and a slew of others shouldn't break the trend. Will it be too light?

11. Whiplash

The music pic was a huge hit at Sundance, folks raving about both the film and the performances of Miles Teller and J.K. Simmons. Last year's Sundancers fell off by the end, but Beasts of the Southern Wild made the cut just the year before, so the longevity of Whiplash is anyone's guess.

12. Interstellar

I can't say the trailer did much for me, and after snubbing Christopher Nolan for Memento, The Dark Knight, and Inception, one wonders if Oscar will ever warm up to the fan-favorite director. That said, the last several years have all reserved a slot in the Best Picture line-up for a big spectacle (Avatar, Inception, Hugo, Life of Pi, and Gravity), and Interstellar feels like the most likely candidate at this point.

13. A Most Wanted Man

The duel facts that this is a John le Carré adaptation and the work of the talented Anton Corbijn (Control, The American) take a backseat to the film's star. As the last serious work of Philip Seymour Hoffman, this one could be in it for the long-haul.

14. A Most Violent Year

J.C. Chandor (Margin Call, All is Lost) is a serious talent who already has one writing nomination under his belt. With under-rewarded pair Oscar Issac and Jessica Chastain in tow, this one's right in the thick of things.

15. Mr. Turner

Oscar loves Mike Leigh (Another Year, Vera Drake), and this biopic about a famed artist might be too much to resist.

David Ayer (Training Day, End of Watch) is a sometimes-favorite of the Academy, and this war-torn tale sounds closer to their wheelhouse. I wouldn't be surprised is a 'Brad Pitt needs an acting Oscar' narrative pulled this one all the way into the big race.

18. Jersey Boys

No, a Clint Eastwood musical doesn't make much sense to me either, but if Into the Woods flops and the Academy goes fishing for musicals, watch out!

19. Love & Mercy

So, so, SO much to like here, from the Brian Wilson subject matter, to a stacked cast featuring Elizabeth Banks, John Cusack, Paul Dano, and Paul Giamatti, not to mention screenwriting wiz Oren Moverman. Problem is, director Bill Pohlad hasn't guided a picture since... wait for it... 1990!!! And that's his only other flick! Keep your fingers crossed.

20. The Homesman

Another gritty-sounding directorial outing for Tommy Lee Jones, this one with a slew of Oscar winners/nominees (Hilary Swank, Hailee Steinfeld, Meryl Streep) also aboard.

21. Wild

Dallas Buyers Club director Jean-Marc Vallée is right back at it with this Reese Witherspoon-starring road trip (see: hike) of self-discovery.

22. Maps to the Stars

No one doubts David Cronenberg's talent (A History of Violence, Eastern Promises), and a mega-cast flick about Hollywood itself would seem right down Oscar's alley. The question, as it always is with Cronenberg, is wether it will be palatable for more sensitive voters.

23. Carol

Portland's own Todd Haynes (Far From Heaven, I'm Not There) returns with his first feature since 2007, another period romance headlined by Cate Blanchett and Rooney Mara.

24. Suffragette

This tale of foot soldiers of the early feminist movement, starring Carey Mulligan and Meryl Streep, has all the makings of a real contender... accept that main one; a proven director.

25. Knight of Cups

It's Terrence Malick (The Thin Red Line, The Tree of Life). That could mean Oscar glory... or it could mean mocking laughter. We'll have to wait and see.

26. Magic in the Moonlight

Woody Allen. Sometimes they work. Sometimes they don't.

27. MacBeth

I know I usually bet on directors, but Michael Fassbender and Marion Cotillard in a Shakespeare tragedy CANNOT be ranked lower than this.

28. Theory Of Everything

A Stephen Hawking biopic would seem ripe for Oscar consideration, but is Eddie Redmayne really the guy to play him?

29. Exodus

Oscar cannot wait for Ridley Scott (Gladiator, American Gangster) to make a film worthy of handing him a career achievement Best Director award, and an enormous biblical adaptation sounds perfect. That said, his recent track record (The Councilor, Prometheus, Body of Lies) makes you wonder if he can ever recapture his muse.

30. Get On Up

A James Brown life-and-times picture sounds like a solid bet. It's Tate Taylor's direction (The Help) that has the flick ranked this low.

31. Kill The Messenger

I'd have a lot more faith in this Jeremy Renner-headlined political thriller if, you know, I'd seen literally anything director Michael Cuesta has done before.

32. Midnight Special

Writer/director Jeff Nichols (Mud, Take Shelter) will be making a splash on Oscar night sometime soon, but is this story of newly-discovered superpowers really the one to do it?

33. The Grand Budapest Hotel

Mark my words, Wes Anderson will be deeply involved in the Oscar race sometime soon. This one's supposed to be great, but it's coming out way, way, WAY too early to stay on voters' minds come February 2015.

34. Pawn Sacrifice

Tobey Maguire as Bobby Fischer facing legendary rival Boris Spassky (Liev Schreiber). Sounds enticing enough, but helmer Edward Zwick (Defiance, The Last Samurai) has been on a cold-streak of late, and this non-action tale might not fit his skill set.

35. The Search

Michel Hazanavicius' follow-up to his Best Picture winner The Artist is a HUGE stretch for the comedy veteran, a love story set in war-torn Chechnya. We'll see if he's up to it.

36. Jupiter Ascending

As with Interstellar, the Wachowski's (The Matrix Trilogy, Cloud Atlas) latest remains on this list because, with the field expanded past five, Oscar likes to invite a big, splashy effects picture.

37. The Gambler

Oscar loves scribe William Monaghan (The Departed), and I dig director Rupert Wyatt (Rise of the Planet of the Apes), and this supporting cast ROCKS (Brie Larson, Jessica Lange, and John Goodman, to name a few). Despite losing over 60 pounds for the role, I still have trepidations about Mark Wahlberg really carrying a BP nominee, and this story of mobsters and gambling might not be a winner anyway.

38. Beasts of No Nation

Cary Fukunaga (Sin Nombre, Jane Eyre) has really made a name for himself lately with his work on HBO's True Detective, and the Important Film status of a flick about child soldiers in Africa ought to turn heads. The question is whether it will be ready by the end of 2014.

39. Men Women & Children

I'm a big fan of Jason Reitman (Juno, Up in the Air), but following up (the egregiously under-rated) Young Adult and last year's Labor Day with a flick starring Adam Sandler doesn't exactly sound like the safest bet.

40. Rosewater

Wait, wait, wait... that Jon Stewart is directing a flick about a journalist is detained in Iran, starring Gael García Bernal? Who knows if the guy can make a flick, but if he can, Oscar would LOVE to invite a former host.

41. Child 44

Tom Hardy is one juicy role away from being a real movie star, and this tale of corruption might just do the trick if director Daniel Espinosa (Safe House, Easy Money) can pull his weight.

42. The Judge

Robert Downey Jr. is essentially an American treasure at this point, and this stacked cast and alluring plot seem like a perfect comeback vehicle for his serious side. Too bad he's got a funny man (Wedding Crashers and Shanghai Knights' David Dobkin) in the director's chair.

43. McFarland

The synopsis makes this one sound like Hoosiers starring Kevin Costner. Director Niki Caro (Whale Rider, North Country) might just be due for some major attention.

44. The Hundred-Foot Journey

If Oscar is feeling gushy, Lasse Hallström (Chocolat, The Cider House Rules) should fit their sweet tooth. It's been a while, but having Helen Mirren on board should help.

45. While We're Young

Noah Baumbach (Frances Ha, The Squid and the Whale) has captured a writing mention from the golden man in the past, and has continued with strong work ever since. Is it his time?

46. Far From The Madding Crowd

Thomas Vinterberg (The Hunt, The Celebration) could also be seen as overdue, and this tale of starry romance is sure to earn some attention.

47. The Cobbler

We know just about zilch about Thomas McCarthy's (Win Win, The Visitor) latest venture, but the indie darling simply has to be on Oscar's radar by now.

48. Warren Beatty's untitled Howard Hughes picture

I LOVE the prospect of this movie, even if the above title is all we really know. That said, who knows if it will come out this year... or next... or the one after that?

49. Jane Got a Gun

Name recognition is the name of the game at the box office; why not at the Oscars as well? Folks have been jumping ship since this project was announced, but having Oscar-winner Natalie Portman as your headliner should alleviate some of that negative press.

50. True Story

The Academy has embraced funny-men James Franco and Jonah Hill already, but this still seems like awfully deep water, an FBI yarn directed by a feature rookie (Rupert Goold).