1) The president is under 50% against all four prospective GOP presidential aspirants in this month's poll for the first time since PPP started these examinations last March. How is January going for the president again?

2) The sample voted for McCain in 2008 at the same rate as the actual results (46%), but Obama has dropped off in this sample versus the actual vote total in November 2008 (53% to 47%). Yes, the sample still favors the Obama slightly, but that makes for a much more competitive balance between the president and his Republican counterparts.

9 comments:

I suspect that Palin may be the first candidate to get hit hard by the recent Supreme Court ruling. Although Republicans seem ready to reap the rewards, Big Oil will have a chance to get back at her for standing up to them as Governor of AK. Look for them to pour lots of money into the primary candidate(s) most likely to challenge her.

And other Republican candidates are not? I think there will be enough pro-oil candidates out there that Big Oil can extract their measure of revenge without hurting their cause. Once Big Oil is scorned, they have no mercy.

At this time four years ago, if memory serves me correctly, Hillary and McCain had the nominations all wrapped up with much larger margins than Palin has in this poll. That was of course before McCain crashed and burned with no hope of getting the nomination. Palin is likely to rise more with her new television show. If she can bait the Democrats to attack her, she will do even better. I suspect that she will be a clear frontrunner by this time next year, particularly if the Tea Party does well in November.

The keys to the nomination will be (1) capturing the new, big money from corporations, (2) getting access to the best campaign staffs that understand how the Republican primary/ caucus system works, (3) finding a truce between the Tea Party and the moderates and (4) good performance in the numerous candidate debates. I would give Romney & Gingrich the edge in key #1; Gingrich, keys #2 & #3; and Palin & Huckabee, key #4. My prediction at this point is that Gingrich will be the nominee. To put that prediction in context, I picked Obama as the Democratic nominee in early 2007, but I never believed that McCain would get the nomination until it was certain.