The Painted Area

One Tough Hombre of a Basketball Blog

Saturday, June 30, 2007

Draft Recap & Analysis (Western Conf)

DALLAS: N. Fazekas (#34); Reyshaun Terry (#44); Renaldas Seibutis (#50)Think the Mavs did a pretty nice job considering they had only 2nd round picks. At #34, Fazekas was a nice value pick, and someone who can fill the back-up void behind Dirk. I think Nick can actually provide some of the post-up points the Mavs are severely lacking, but I doubt he will ever be a force down low. Even though I think Fazekas is a better prospect than Glen Davis, I wonder if Big Baby would have been a better fit. Davis provides a different look to Dirk's game, while Nick's game somewhat overlaps Dirk's. Seibutis is solid Lithuanian shooter with decent athleticism who could possibly carve out a bench role in the NBA. The trade for Terry was a sweet move, and feel that Terry could be a sleeper in this draft--he's a great athlete who shoots & rebounds well.

GOLDEN ST: Brandan Wright (#8); Marco Belinelli (#18); Stephane Lasme (#46)There's no doubt Wright has the skills that would be accentuated in the Warriors' system. But Wright's rebounding ability is a concern & he will be a major defensive liability on-the-ball for awhile--the kid is 200 lbs, Baron is 10 lbs heavier than him. So I can't see how he helps improve the Warriors' main weaknesses of rebounding & interior defense at this time. Fan of Belinelli and he fits in great in a Nellie system--Marco has unlimited range, he's uber-athletic, he chucks up shots at will, & he has little interest in defense--he's right up Nellie's alley. Lasme was worth a shot in the 2nd--not very big but a great athlete who can block shots & rebound

HOUSTON: A. Brooks (#26); Carl Landry (#31); Brad Newley (#54)Really think they needed to take a chance on McRoberts or Fazekas at this pick. The Rockets had to find anyone who can even play limited minutes at PF, even if McRoberts doesn't work out, he comes at a relatively cheap price at #26. Even though I know they need PF help immediately, why not take a chance on Splitter as well. I mean you will have to wait a few years on Brooks to develop anyways, & he might not ever be more than a back-up anyways, why not wait 1 year for Splitter. There are some rumors that this pick might be traded, so this could work well later for Houston, but I can only go on what I know now. Landry is sort of in the mold of Chuck Hayes & they might need him around if Hayes bolts. Saw Newley a few times last summer, though he's a nice shooter & good athlete, he really didn't do anything that left a huge impression on me. But he can stroke it, and the Rockets can never have enough shooters around TMac & Yao.

CLIPPERS: Al Thornton (#14); Jared Jordan (#45)Clips had a bunch of areas they needed to cover on draft night, so going with the best player available was probably the right way to go. Even though I thought Nick Young was the better player, can't fault the Clips too much for going for a SF since Maggette always seems to be out of favor with Dunleavy. Not sure Jordan can stick in this league, but if he does the Clips have themselves a much needed back-up PG.

LAKERS: J. Crittenton (#19); Sun Yue (#40); Marc Gasol (#48)Some people don't seem to like this pick, but at the spot they were picking, thought it was a good choice. Felt that one of the Lakers' main needs was for a PG or combo guard who can drill jumpers, and Crittenton was the best PG on the board & he shoots fairly well. Also, he satiates Phil's fascination for big PGs. The only other direction I would gone at #19 was to look for a big, but there was very little to choose from besides Smith. Gasol could possibly make it in the NBA as a back-up, but he's nowhere near as skilled as his brother (played well in place of his bro in the Gold Medal game last summer).

MEMPHIS: Mike Conley (#4)Couldn't ask for anything more. Not only was he the best player on the board, he filled one of the Grizzlies biggest holes. Now they can narrow their focus to chasing a big in free agency. They are the only Western team with significant cap room, and could make a play for guy like Varejao or Darko.

MINNESOTA: Corey Brewer (#7); Chris Richard (#41)Nothing special of a draft day for Kevin McHale. The better choice would have been to take Noah, though Brewer is not a terrible pick here. As we've mentioned before, the TWolves need help on their frontline & are a poor rebounding team. They already have a defensive-minded SF in Hassell, who's under contract for a few years. Why they grabbed Chris Richard, when they already had a very similar & better player in Craig Smith, I'm not sure.

NEW ORLEANS: Julian Wright (#13); Adam Haluska (#43)Should have taken Nick Young instead, but can't hate on the Hornets too much because think Julian Wright is pretty talented & fell a few too many spots himself. Wright can provide a different look at SF opposite Peja, and he can guard some 2s when needed. The Hornets still have to find a shooting guard since they don't have a starting caliber option. Actually I'm a fan of Haluska's game, and think he was worth taking a flyer on in the 2nd round.

PHOENIX: Alando Tucker (#29); DJ Strawberry (#59)Agree with everything my partner previously stated. I'm not a huge fan of Tucker's prospects at the next level & not sure how he fits in at all with what the Suns like to do. But then again maybe D'Antoni is looking to mix things up, and tries to utilize Tucker's post-up skills. They could have gotten their hands on G. Pruitt at #29 to help at PG. And they still have not addressed their primary need for size, maybe they have something up their sleeves on the trade market. I actually like the pick-up of Strawberry, and actually think he could be a better pro than Tucker. DJ is known for his defense, and he can run some PG in a pinch.

PORTLAND: Greg Oden (#1); Rudy Fernandez (#24); Petteri Koponen (#30 via Phil); J. McRoberts (#37); Taureen Green (#52)Basically have the same exact sentiments as my partner about the Blazers' draft night. Easily the big winner this year, and that has very little to do with the fact that a ping-pong ball fell their way. It was the decisions after Oden that really set them apart from every other team.

SACRAMENTO: Hawes (#10)What's happened to the Geoff Petrie we use to know. 2 years in a row where Petrie makes a poor decision. He passed on multiple PGs last year, and now he passed on Julian Wright to go after a big who doesn't rebound or defend well. Wasn't the Kings biggest need for a big who could rebound, defend & block shots? So now they pair Brad Miller (slow, subpar rebounder, & useless defender) with Hawes (slow, subpar rebounder, & useless defender) to form a Vanilla Thunder center rotation. Nice. Congratulations Kings' fans, you now have the worst defensive frontline in the NBA (though with the trade for Randolph, the Knicks can challenge for the throne). Not to mention the Kings poor rebounding does not look like it will be helped by having Hawes around.

SAN ANTONIO: Tiago Splitter (#28); Marcus Williams (#33)Scary. Just the Spurs being the Spurs. It's almost like they are rubbing their greatness in other teams' faces. They knew they were one of the few teams that could wait a little while for Splitter to come over, and they must have been ecstatic Tiago was still around. Now they have a guy who can step in for Oberto in a few years, and actually provide you with an even better defensive presence than Fab. Then at #33, they got a guy, Williams, who can provide some much needed youth to the wings spot. Now Buford & Pop can focus most of their attention in free agency on finding a back-up PG.

SEATTLE: Kevin Durant (#2); Jeff Green (#5 via Bos)We already knew about Durant, but Presti stepped up to the plate & made a gutsy move to acquire Jeff Green by dealing Ray Allen. Though the rumor that Presti is considering re-signing Rashard on top of having Durant & Green, hopefully is just a rumor. First off, I find the rumor hard to believe because I can't imagine Lewis wants to re-up with the Sonics now that they brought in 2 young SFs, not to mention another SF in Wally. Why you spend that type of money to keep Lewis so as to try an experiment with 3 SFs is highly risky, especially from a defensive standpoint. And you have to imagine Presti understands the importance of defense thanks to his former employer.

UTAH: Morris Almond (#25); Kyrylo Fesenko (#38 via Phil)Almond was probably not only the best player on the board, but the perfect fit to what the Jazz needed: a 2-guard who can drill shots. Also, the trade for Fesenko could possibly answer their other need, which was for an athletic center. One of the winners of draft night.

Friday, June 29, 2007

Draft Recap & Analysis (Eastern Conf)

ATLANTA: Al Horford (#3); Acie Law (#11)Finally, a competent draft night for the Hawks. They filled two holes they had to fill. Even though I had Conley rated slightly ahead of Horford, I think the Hawks made the right call going with Horford at #3 because they were still able to acquire a lottery-caliber PG later. If they would have taken Conley at 3, they would have still needed/wanted a big at #11, but the problem was there would not have been a viable big left at the #11. So their strategy made sense. The only minor question is: does Acie Law have the ability to run the point at the pro level as well as he did at Tex A & M or was he just another undersized 2-guard college stud?

BOSTON: Gabe Pruitt (#32); Glen Davis (#35 via Sea)Thought they did a solid job with their 2nd round picks. Liked Pruitt as a Top 25 player so I thought this was a minor steal. And now the Celts have someone to back-up Rondo after the dealing Delonte. Since there really wasn't a talented center at #35, think Big Baby was a decent pick-up, though he seems to duplicate what Powe gives you & his shooting pct. is a red flag at his size. Not really sure where I stand on the Allen trade. Does give the Celts a potent scoring triumvirate with Pierce & Jefferson, and they might be good enough to win the Atlantic. And Ainge did not have to part with Ratliff's valuable expiring contract, and got rid of Wally instead. Though Ray is going on 32 and coming off of some ankle injuries, so maybe giving up the #5 was not a great idea. Tough call.

CHARLOTTE: Jared Dudley (#22); Jermaro Davidson (#36 via GS)This team desperatley needed a dynamic scorer & a dynamic scorer they got in Jason Richardson. JRich might be a little overpaid, but the Bobcats had loads of cap space & had to start using it to get some valuable vets. Though Dudley was a nice grab at 22, and he can provide some smart play on the wings. Instead of chasing another wing in the 2nd round maybe should have chased a PG in the 2nd round since they waived Brevin Knight.

CHICAGO: Joakim Noah (#9); Aaron Gray (#49); J. Curry (#51)Disagree with my partner on this one. Really liked what the Bulls accomplished on draft night. They really needed some size & they got it in Noah. Sure, they didn't fill their biggest void of a low-post scorer, but they did add two 7-footers to a roster that had no one over 6-9. Noah's skills do overlap with what Wallace gives you, but if Joakim develops quickly, he could make it easier to deal Big Ben. Probably not a bad idea to grab JamesOn Curry since Duhon could be on the move. Granted, Aaron will not light the NBA on fire, he does have the size & skills to a serviceable reserve for a long time in this league. He can give the Bulls a smattering of post scoring, but by no means answer all their post scoring needs.

DETROIT: Rodney Stuckey (#15); Aaron Afflalo (#27); Sammy Mejia (#57)Even though Nick Young was on the board, think Stuckey actually might be the better fit in Detroit because he can move over to run some point when needed. Pistons badly needed bench help at both guard positions, so Stuckey was ideal. He also looks to have the ability to provide some slashing, something the Pistons' offense desperately needs. Afflalo was a safe pick at #27, and Dumars probably sees a little bit of himself in Afflalo--a dogged defender who understands how to win (2 Final 4s in 2 years).

INDIANA: Stanko Barac (#39 via Miami)Did not originally have a pick, but traded into the 2nd round to get Stanko. What I know about Stanko is he's big & can shoot. But not surprisingly he's slow, so he might never even come over to the States. Indy would have been better suited trading for a chance at a PG or SG instead.

MIAMI: Daequan Cook (#21 via Phil)Nice pick-up. The Heat need a lot of bench help across the board and now they have a nice back-up for Wade. Think Cook can work nicely next to Wade when Dwyane's running the PG. Cook provides shooting, which the Heat can never have enough of around Wade & Shaq. Probably needed a back-up PG more, but the only guy at #20 that would make sense was Pruitt.

MILWAUKEE: Yi Jianlian (#6); Ramon Sessions (#56)One of the biggest losers on draft night besides maybe Sacramento. Can't say I like their draft day too much. From everything you hear, Yi & his handlers want nothing to do with Milwaukee, for which I can't blame him. On top of that I'm not even that high on Yi's prospects, and the Bucks had a few viable otptions still on the table to fill their question mark at the SF spot. Corey Brewer would have been my first choice & provided a much needed defensive punch to a horrid defensive team. Wasn't all bad for the Bucks, thought the Sessions pick-up was solid, especially since all the Bucks' PGs are free agents.

NEW JERSEY: Sean Williams (#17)Pretty solid choice. It was worth the risk at the #17. Had Williams along with McRoberts & J. Smith as one of the ideal draft targets for the Nets. He has the tools that the Nets need on their frontcourt. Excellent shot-blocker who provides much needed athleticism next to Krstic & Collins. Alright rebounder, but could be better. Not sure he will offer more than what Boone can give you as this stage but adds much needed depth upfront with Mikki Moore a free agent & Uncle Cliffy playing on fumes.

NEW YORK: Wilson Chandler (#23)Chandler has a great physical package but just don't think that he's that overly talented to be taken at #23. The Knicks probably needed some help at the SF with QRich's health always precarious, but Chandler's just not that good of a shooter--something you're gonna need to keep doubles off of Zach & Curry. And let's quickly cover the Zach-Francis trade. Might be an exciting trade on the surface for Knick fans, but looking deeper at the new Zach-Curry combo gives you plenty of pause. Sure, having another potent low-post option is often a nice problem to have, but I really wonder how well Curry & Randolph will co-exist. Both guys do their damage in the same area & both guys demand a lot of touches; something gotta to give. But maybe the biggest issue is you are pairing Zach, a pitiful defender, with Curry, a horrid defender, to form one of the worst defensive frontlines in the NBA. And defense was the biggest deficiency the Knicks had last year, besides TOs. This move also could very likely cut down on Lee's minutes since Zach will want more minutes than Frye got. So Knicks fans, settle down.

PHILADELPHIA: Thaddeus Young (#12); Jason Smith (#20 via Miami); Derrick Byars (#42 via Port); Herbert Hill (#55 via Utah)Not sure I really liked the move to get Young at the #12. But can't say I disliked the move totally because I don't really know what to make of Young right now. Only got to see him for one year, and though he was still raw, his physical attributes do excite & make you wonder about his scary potential. Liked the move to get Smith, it was either him or McRoberts at that point in the draft--the Sixers had to get somebody who could play PF at #21. Like the 2nd round trade to get Herb Hill because the the Sixers need all the PF help they can get; don't even have a viable back-up right now. Byars was considered by some a late 1st talent so Philly did a nice job scooping him up even though they have plenty of wings. Still need to find a back-up PG.

WASHINGTON: Nick Young (#16); Dominic McGuire (#47)Though the Wiz really did not have a need for more scoring from the perimeter, can't fault them for taking Young, who fell into their lap. Thought Young was the best 2-guard in the draft who had arguably the best mid-range game in the draft. He is somewhat overkill, and probably doesn't help their defensive prospects, but could open up some trade options. Will have to search for some defensive role players in free agency or thru trades.

Ok, here are some of my immediate reactions to draft night.Also see Jay Aych's team-by-team analysis: East | West

RED HOT AND ROLLIN'Mother of God, what an amazing night for the Portland Trail Blazers, the runaway winners of the night, who followed up last year's bounty of rookies with a spectacular 2007 draft night.

To recap, they walked away with the following:1. Greg Oden - The crown jewel and centerpiece of the franchise.

24. Rudy Fernandez - What a steal at 24 with one of the picks garnered with Paul Allen's pocket change. Fran Fraschilla described him as a lottery-pick talent, and Jay Aych agreed in his pre-draft prospect breakdown -- he had Rudy rated as No. 13 based strictly on basketball (he has contract issues, not the least of which is that FC Barcelona may simply outbid his NBA rookie contract significantly). A 6-6 athlete who can finish and shoot.

30. Petteri Koponen - A lot of upside, didn't cost them anything, and can let him stay in Europe and develop. Why not.37. Josh McRoberts - I absolutely love this pick at 37. He's 6-10 with great length, very good athleticism, and superior passing ability for a big. That's a rare combination. Remember, this kid would have been a Top 10 pick each of the last two years. He deserved to fall after this season but not this much. He still has the potential to become a lottery-pick talent, and what's great for him is that there's absolutely no pressure for him to develop, unlike if he had been a Top 10 pick. If he's spearheading POR's 2nd team with blocked shots and assists, what a bonus - that's all they need out of him.

52. Taurean Green/53. Demetris Nichols - I have no idea how these guys will see the floor in the PDX, but again, very good value for the picks.

Jay Aych ranked his 25 top prospects in his analysis, with 11 more guys given honorable mention nods. POR walked away with prospects 1, 13, 25, and three hon. mention guys without giving anything up, and I thought they got pretty good value for Zach, in terms of another promising young big (Frye) and two fewer years of a huge contract (Francis). I gotta say it was a good day.

CHEMISTRYPart of the reason I love Portland's night is that - by a combo of luck and design - I think they've done a stellar job of drafting with team chemistry in mind. Three things, a combo of little and big things, stand out:

1. Oden/Roy. I don't have the details of this anecdote handy, so I apologize if I don't get it exactly right, but when the Pistons were about to draft Joe Dumars (or perhaps it was that they were considering trading him), owner Bill Davidson made the decisive argument in favor of Joe D by saying, "You'll won't find a better guard who's willing to sit second chair to Isiah." And thus is a big part of how a championship team is born.

Relations between star players are so important to sustaining success for a franchise. That's the beauty in what POR has in Oden and Roy - I can't imagine those two guys ever getting into turf wars, though stranger things have happened, of course.

2. Sergio/Rudy. I don't know if people realize how well Sergio Rodriguez and Rudy Fernandez played together off the bench in Spain's impressive run to the World Championship last year. Spain would start the game with its collection of veterans - Gasol, Garbajosa, Calderon, J.C. Navarro - playing its brand of steady team basketball, and then Sergio/Rudy would come off the bench to give them a massive energy burst.

They were often electrifying to watch - going up and down the court with alley-oops left and right - they must have led the tournament in terms of alley-oops as a combo.

Here are a few quick tastes:

vs. Lithuania - you need to watch this one for the Andres Cantor-quality entertainment on the broadcast call:

vs. Argentina in the semis - technically not an alley-oop, but still an impressive fast-break combo by the two, esp. given the quality of the opponent and the magnitude of the game:

vs Serbia

Again, it could be a challenge to get Rudy over here, but I'd have to think that having Sergio helps a lot, and if they do get him, let me be the first to dub the combo's alley-oops as "Spanish Fly". Thank you, I'll be here all the week.

I am staying in Carmel, Indiana, which is north of Indianapolis. In this area lots of people know high school basketball. When you ask someone about it, the first name that pops in their minds is not Greg Oden, Michael Conley Jr., or Eric Gordon. It's JOSH MCROBERTS, one of my favorite people in the world. He is one of the funniest people I have met, and the one person in high school basketball that I dreaded playing, because I had to guard him and he is a monster. He uses both hands on the court. That gives him an edge on everybody else. He was here for a day so I got to hang out with him. It was one of the greatest days. Him and a couple of his friends and I laid out at his pool, played horse in the pool, stayed in too long, hands got wrinkled and when we got tired of being in the pool his mom came and grilled some hamburgers and teriyaki chicken with macaroni salad and cookies. It was the BOMB! Then we just chilled later on with some of his friends from high school and it was cool. The next day he left for Chicago to work out. He is a great player and I hope him well this year in the draft. I hope they invite him to go to the draft cause he will probaly have me laughing the whole night. I don't want to brag, but we were on one of the best AAU teams ever with 1. Michael Conley Jr, 2. Eric Gordon, 3. Deaquan Cook, 4. Josh McRoberts, and 5. little ol me.

THINGS I DON'T UNDERSTAND1. Phoenix selling its draft picks. This just makes absolutely no sense to me. When you're trying to cut costs, what you want to do is *maximize* guys on their rookie contracts - those deals are by far and away the best bargains in the league.

I understand they got money for the pick, but they should be trying to pick up some "cash considerations" in trades where they dump veterans' salaries and pick up more rookie contracts. So instead of having a Sergio Rodriguez (pick sold to PDX last year) making about $800K/yr and a Rudy Fernandez (sold this year) making about $950K/yr, they go out and sign Marcus Banks to a $21M/5-yr deal???

And if they didn't want Rudy, or didn't think they could sign him, fine, but this was one of the deepest drafts of all-time - there were plenty of prospects still on the board who were worth ~$950K.

I can understand the desire to avoid the luxury tax, I just really don't understand why you don't want more rookie contracts if that's your goal.

2. Seattle's trade. I think that trading Ray Allen makes sense, I just thought they'd be able to get more value back. Ray is a 20.3 PER guy overall for his 11-year career - I just don't see Green providing that kind of borderline All-Star production, and they didn't get contract relief with Ratliff instead of Wally.

Then Bucher reported that Presti intends to keep Rashard - I thought the Green pick was a clear sign that Rashard was gone. I guess I don't understand how three 6-10 SFs work in the same lineup.

And I certainly didn't love the trade from Boston's perspective either.3. What Chicago is doing. I thought that John Paxson took too much criticism for passing up Gasol at the deadline. It seemed perfectly logical to me that Pax knew he had one shot to get a superstar, and he had evaluated that Pau was not a true franchise player who Chicago could ride to the title, and was willing to take the heat and be patient for KG.

But now, with not only KG but also Kobe on the market, and Chicago seemingly sitting out... I mean, what the hell are they doing??? A true star is the one piece they need to get to the championship level, they are short of championship-caliber with the current roster, and they have enough depth that they won't have to decimate their team to make a trade - they have *two* legit starting-quality small forwards for crying out loud.

As much as I thought I understood why they avoided Pau, I am much more befuddled at why they aren't at the heart of the KG/Kobe opportunity.4. Amare-KG rumors. Why isn't this just a straight-up MIN PHX trade rumor (with other PHX salaries thrown in) instead of going through a third team? Am I missing something here? Has Amare said he doesn't want to go to Minny? Are there some obvious cap issues I'm missing? I just don't understand why MIN doesn't want Amare instead of some kind of package. OTHER DRAFT WINNERS/LOSERSWinners- Seattle - I suppose I have to put them here even despite the trade b/c Durant is such a surpassing talent.

- San Antonio - Gotdamn these dudes are smart - what value in getting two potential lottery-quality talents at 29 and 33! Contract issues drove Splitter down, but S.A. can afford to wait - I think he'll be able to step in and replace Oberto in a couple years and fit that ballclub just as well as Fab does now (Tiago is better on D, worse on O than Fab).

And I love Marcus Williams at 33 - he has lottery-level skills. Some questions about his attitude, but he's worth a 2nd-round flyer for sure.

- Philly - A lot of upside in the T Young, J Smith and D Byars picks, though I thought they should have kept Koponen, considering they can stash him in Europe, but "cash considerations" always speak loudly....

- Memphis - Conley Jr. was their only pick, but that's good enough for me.

Losers- Phoenix. See above.

- Chicago. See above. Noah gives them another energy guy who can't score.

- Sacramento. Who kidnapped Geoff Petrie, who was once the best GM in the game? An overrated guy who compounds the weaknesses they already have (no interior D, lack of athleticism)?

- Milwaukee. Not only do they draft a guy who could be this year's El Busto, but he really, really doesn't want to be there, either. I love that they've come full circle culturally, picking the decent Chinese guy in a city with no Asian people a decade after sending the superior German guy away from the city of brats.

Don't Know- GS/Charlotte. I don't know what to make of this trade. From Charlotte's perspective, it's a great trade in a vacuum - B Wright has a long, long way to go to ever get to J-Rich's level. But for the BOBcats to use their cap space on J-Rich seems like a letdown - I love his game but don't think he's worth his franchise-player contract.

From GS's perspective, even though they sorted out their position logjam a little, I think it's a basketball downgrade. It's a tough situation - they probably had to trade either J-Rich or S Jackson. You'd think you'd want to sell high on Jack and keep the steadier J-Rich, but Jack and Baron are seemingly such soulmates that it'd be hard to separate the two. Still, I think it's a downgrade for GS.

Thursday, June 28, 2007

NBA Draft Preview--#15-25 Prospects

Below is Part II of our draft prospect list. Here we rank the players 15 thru 25, and add a few honorable mentions who could be considered in the late 1st/early 2nd round. *--Did not rank East Washington's Rod Stuckey because I never saw him play in a live game setting. It sounds like he has the talent to be placed somewhere in the #15-#20 area.

15) Al Thornton (Florida St.) 6-7 SFHe is the one guy I waver back-n-forth on the most in the draft. I could just as easily see this guy being a pretty good long-term pro as I could see him being a bust. There are one or two guys in every draft -- you just have to go on a gut feeling about their prospects, and I'm just not feeling Thornton starring at the next level. Has he hit his ceiling because he is 23 years old? Tough call. He still seems to have some rawness to his game, which is not a good thing at 23 years. Explosive athlete who finishes with authority, often in traffic. Encouraging that he became more of a 3pt. threat as his tenure at Fla St. progressed. Has shown the ability to hit mid-range jumpers consistently.

16) Javaris Crittenton (Georgia Tech) 6-4 PG--Good size for a PG which perks up the ears of GMs, but actually has the same standing reach as Law. I question how much of a pure point he is--don't know if he sees the floor as well as he could. Did average nearly 6 apg this year, but nearly neutralized this goodwill by averaging a whopping 4 TOpg. Very good athlete who has a nice ability to get into the lane when he wants. Solid shooter, but nothing special. His size & length does allow him to be a pretty solid defensive player, which should translate well to the next level. Again another guy who probably should have stayed in school another year.

17) Spencer Hawes (Wash.) 7-0 C--As you can see, I ain't that high on Spencer. Lacks athleticism. Concerned about his rebounding ability. Possible explanation is he played next to one of the most ferocious rebounders/competitors in the NCAA, Jon Brockman, who ate into his reb total--it's possible. But shouldn't the 7-footer be the one dictating what happens on the boards? Can play in the high post with his great passing instincts. Has great footwork & a strong understanding of the game. Can finish around the basket with either hand. Uses hook shots well. Not as much of a defensive presence as he should have been. Not really all that enamored with him, though he could project to be like Rik Smits, which ain't half bad.

18) Marco Belinelli (Italy) 6-6 SG--Has one of the sweetest shooting strokes in the draft & has unlimited range on his jumper. Is a threat to pull-up from anywhere out to 25 feet. Superb athlete who has great slashing ability, just needs to stop settling for jumpers so much. His shot selection needs to be improved upon. Sort of a poor man's Vince Carter--long, slender athlete who would rather shoot off-balance jumpers than using his athleticism to his advantage Also, a good ball-handler & passer who can play a little point like Vince when needed. Need to pack on some lbs.

19) Jason Smith (Colorado St) 7-0 PF/C--Only seen Smith play a few games, so this is a small sample I'm dealing with. First thing you're pleasantly impressed with is fluid movement & athleticism for his size. Pretty well-built & has a frame that can fill out even more. The other impressive facet of his game is his nice shooting stroke--solid face-up ability. Seemed comfortable putting the ball on the deck as well, which was nice to see in a 7-footer. Good rebounder. His turnovers were disturbingly too high for a frontcourt guy.

20) Thaddeus Young (Georgia Tech) 6-7 SF--Great athlete with a ton of potential but still probably could use at least another year of college. Solid shooter from the perimeter, but it's tough to say right now what his mid-range ability will be at the next level. Seems to be to a little left-hand dominant right now & needs to work on adjusting that part of his game or teams will look to expose it at will.

21) Morris Almond (Rice) 6-6 SG--Next to Nick Young, has one of the better mid-range games of draftees. Great shooter who is adept at drilling shots coming off screens. Not a great athlete, but still was able to easily create shots for himself as well as anyone in the NCAA. He made a living at the foul line, getting there 9 times per game, and was a 85% shooter when he got there. Pretty good rebounder for a 2-guard.

22) Daequan Cook (Ohio St) 6-6 SG--This kid is really hard to gauge, because he really fell out of favor with Matta as the season went on. Somewhat concerning is Cook did most of his damage early on in the season vs. lower-rated competition, then had his productivity fall off as the season progressed. But you did see glimpses of his enticing potential throughout his Frosh year. Very good athlete with strong frame who has the potential to be a potent wing scorer at the next level. Nice shooter from deep who has shown the ability to hit off the dribble in-between as well. Very effective rebounder in limited minutes. Would loved to seen him stay another year so to get a better read on his game.

23) Gabe Pruitt (USC) 6-4 PG--Been intrigued by Gabe since his Frosh year. Great athlete with nice length for a PG. Excellent defender with quick hands who can easily transfer this ability to the next level thanks to his length & speed. Could be a nuisance for opposing PGs with his ability to pressure the ball. My major hesitation with Gabe, much like with Law & Crittenton -- is he a true PG? Was moved off the ball more often last year, but was moved backed to more point duty this year. Though his overall numbers might not quite bear it out, he does have a nice shooting stroke.

24) Nick Fazekas (Nevada) 6-11 PF/C--Has one of the sweetest strokes ever for a guy his size, legit 3pt range. Might be the most fundamentally sound big in the draft. Nice soft hands, good passing instincts. Has the ability to post a little bit away from the block, similar to what Brand does, so I'm not as concerned as others that he can't hold his position on offense. Has a quick release off his post moves, sort of reminds me of Antawn Jamison. Could be great in pick-n-pop situations. Basically, the only thing holding him back from being a lotto pick is his physical package. Very slow with an awkward gait, and though he put on some weight this year, he's still weak, especially a weak base. I have to wonder if his rebounding efficiency goes down because he won't be able to hold position down low very well--opponents should be able to manhandle him, & he should be a major defensive liability. He really does not like much contact, and he wanted nothing to do with mixing it up with Memphis' Joey Dorsey in the Tourney. I think he will struggle to be a starter in the NBA, but should stick around the league for awhile because of his shooting prowess. Does remind me of Christian Laettner somewhat, but think Laettner might have been an even better athlete than Nick.

25) Josh McRoberts (Duke) 6-10 PF--Probably underachieved this past season, but still has promising pro potential. Good athlete with nice length. His most favorable trait is his ball-handling & passing for a guy 6-10 & could be a very valuable in a system that moves their bigs to the high post. His toughness is definitely a question mark. Pretty good shot-blocker who gets them out of his area. Subpar foul shooter. Solid finisher with good hops who runs the floor well.

Bonus Sleeper Pick: Jared Dudley (Boston College) 6-7 SF--Savvy, seasoned player. High basketball IQ, a guy who does a little bit of everything well, nothing great. His passing skills have been honed from playing in a flex system. Nice footwork. Subpar athlete who could have some issues trying to defend SF at the next level. Shot the ball well this year, but not sure I would sign off on saying he's a good shooter--the NBA 3pt. line might be a little bit out of his range. Pretty good rebounder. Probably better suited as a back-up, but could be a very valuable addition to any team looking for a role-player off the bench.

Wednesday, June 27, 2007

NBA Draft Preview: Lottery Prospects; Oden v Durant Part Deux

We're gonna do this the same way we did this last year--Instead of a mock, we decided to just rank the players. This is not the order I see them being picked, this is just the order I feel that they should be ranked by talent & potential. In this draft, the first 2 picks are locked in, but after that the draft starts to get more intriguing. With the usual swirl of trade winds brewing, a team's needs can shift quickly & certain players start to freefall if they're not the right fit. Below we rank the draftees 1 thru 14.

1) Greg Oden (Ohio St) 7-0 C--Physical force with huge soft mitts, and has a frame that can probably handle 285 lbs. without losing any speed. Great athlete for his size. Absolute eraser on the defensive end--whatever team drafts him, guarantee their Def FG% immediately tumbles down. Will challenge Dwight Howard for rebound supremacy for years to come. Like Dwight, Greg's offensive game is still somewhat raw right now. Really just consists of dunks & a little hook shot he shoots from his side. But like Dwight, he can still be pretty successful offensively because of his freakish physical tools. But definitely will need to work on his post moves if he ever wants to be close to as dominant as Shaq was offensively. Hall-o-Fame potential.

2) Kevin Durant (Texas) 6-10 SF--Most dynamic offensive player in this draft, and the best offensive draftee since the '03 draft trio. Really can do everything you want on the offensive end: 3pt. range, hits pull-ups everywhere, variety of post moves, great ball-handler for his size, & good passing ability. Great rebounder to boot, especially for a pure SF. One knock on him right now is his body & strength, definitely could use some extra girth, but not too concerned since he's primarily a SF. Defense is a little bit of a question mark, and might have trouble holding position if asked to defend 4s. Like Oden, potential Hall-o-Famer.

3) Mike Conley (Ohio St) 6-1 PG--Born to play point. Like the comparisons to Parker: very adept finisher, uses floater well, shot over 50% this year, but his main flaw is his poor outside shooting. Will have to improve his jumper like Parker to prevent defenses from sagging off. Think Conley might be a better distributor in the pros than Parker. Tremendous handle, has the ball on a string which makes him very shifty & tough to contain. Plays passing lanes very well, and has the markings of a solid defender. Had to give him a slight nudge above Horford because he's a PG, and good PGs are a harder commodity to come by.

4) Al Horford (Florida) 6-10 PF--Ready to step-in & contribute right away. NBA body with underrated athleticism. Great all-around defender, who will not be phased stepping out the perimeter to handle pick/rolls. Think he can handle guarding a lot of centers when needed, thanks to his strength. Solid offensive player, but nothing spectacular. Uses drop steps well, but still could use some more refinement in his post moves. Don't know if he will ever be a mid-20s ppg scorer, but think he could a nice second scoring option, possibly cracking 20ppg. Underrated interior passer. Needs to work on his free throw shooting.

5) Jeff Green (G'Town) 6-9 SF--Multi-talented player who can shoot, handle the ball, good passer, & has a nifty post game. Smart floor game paired with good athleticism. Steadily improved his shooting to where he's pretty solid. Capable defender, who's strong enough to defend some 4s at the next level. Measured out well & can play the 4 when needed. Gets bashed too much for underwhelming semifinal game, but people have to realize he played in a very structured offense that does not really call for the player to take over individually; if there is anyone to blame, blame Coach Thompson for not making adjustments.

6) Joakim Noah (Florida) 7-0 PF/C--Not sure why this kid is taking so much flak---he's a proven winner who constantly hustles. Very good passer, and passes off the move well, which is rare among 7-footers. Good rebounder, and a very active defender who should be able to handle pick/rolls well. Ugly outside shot that needs to be overhauled & it transfers over to subpar free throw shooting. Likes to finish with his left hand. Runs the floor very well. Needs to add a little bit more weight. Turned the ball over a little too much this year. Don't expect him to ever be anything special of an offensive player.

7) Brandan Wright (UNC) 6-10 PF--Long, lanky athlete who has a nice touch around the basket. It's just when he gets outside of 8 feet, his touch seems to suddenly desert him & is evident in his poor foul shooting. Questionable rebounder. Were his numbers affected by being alongside a rugged rebounder in Hansbrough? Not sure, it's a possibility. No idea how he will hold position on the block offensively or defensively. Some people compare him to Bosh, but Bosh was 225 coming in after his freshman year, Wright is only 200 lbs. That's is something to be concerned about. Does have enticing potential, though. Gets off the floor extremely quick.

8) Nick Young (USC) 6-6 SG--Best pure 2-guard in the draft. Great athlete who finishes well with both hands. Probably the best mid-range game of any player in the draft. Uses a nifty turnaround fadeaway to create space for himself. Nice shooting touch & shot the ball great this year. Solid ball-handler, which helps his mid-range game. Needs to improve his passing skills. Has shown the ability to be a solid rebounder for a 2-guard (averaged 6.6 rpg last year).

9) Corey Brewer (Florida) 6-8 SF--His defense is his calling card--can be excellent wing defender in the mold of Tayshaun. Expect to see Corey assigned to PGs on certain occasions as well. Great activity on the defensive end. Offensively, nothing special right now. Does slash all the way to the rim well, but nothing special of a shooter. Some people are under the misconception he's a good shooter because they just started paying attention to the NCAAs during the Final 4 weekend. Has a hitch in his release that needs to be tweaked, has never shown the ability to shoot off the dribble or coming off of screens either. Pretty solid passer, but sometimes gets out of control with his dribble. Some people compare him to Josh Howard, but Howard was a better rebounder in college. Maybe Brewer's rebound numbers are skewed because he played next to Noah & Horford. A possibility. Needs to start pounding the whey protein immediately.

10) Julian Wright (Kansas) 6-8 SF--Explosive athlete with great length for a projected SF. Very strong finisher, can use both hands. Hits glass well for a SF. Excellent passer for guy his size, you could run offense thru him in a point-forward role. Underrated footwork in the post & will be able to take other SFs down on the block. His biggest flaw is his shooting. Right now, he's the guy the defense will have no qualms of helping off of. Has the potential to be a versatile defender you can throw on 2s, 3s & 4s. The main question facing Julian--is he just a tweener? Not sure, but his passing ability does provide some hope he can prosper on the perimeter. Most importantly, he just has to work diligently on improving his jumper.

11) Yi Jianlian (China) 7-0 PF--Don't know how comfortable I feel putting him here, but have to give some credit for his skill set at his size. Let's just say I'm in the camp that is not too confident about Yi's NBA prospects. Not saying I think he will be a bust, but not feeling an All-Star caliber talent either. The handful of World Championship games I watched, Jianlian just left me unimpressed. He just seemed to disappear out on the court & you would not even realize he was out there. Not a good sign. His athleticism for his size is impressive, and he did use it occasionally to finish strong. But this talk that he compares to Dirk are way off-base. Anytime a 7-footer can hit 20-footers, they are automatically compared to Dirk. But what's key to Dirk's game is his ability to pull-up off the dribble from anywhere 25 feet & in. From the few games I've seen of Yi, he's never shown the footwork or ball-handling ability that Dirk has to be able to hit pull-ups from anywhere. He was just nothing special in the Worlds. Right now he seems to be creeping up the boards more for his off-court appeal. Which I really can't blame teams for considering.

12) Tiago Splitter (Tau Ceramica/Brazil) 6-11 PF/C--On sheer talent alone, Tiago is lottery material; not sure much separates him from Noah. It's just his contract situation is holding him back. Earliest he can come over is next summer, and that might not be even a sure deal because his Spanish team, Tau, could play hardball to keep him since they will be possibly losing his frontcourt partner, Scola, next summer. Good athlete with a NBA-ready body. Tough interior defender who's not afraid to be physical. Solid rebounder. Has plenty of big-game experience playing in the highest level of Int'l ball. Been a key cog on one of the best teams in Europe that reached the Euroleague Final 4 two years in a row. Had a very good World Champs where he outplayed frontcourt partner Andy Varejao last summer. But somewhat like Varejao, his offensive game is limited right now.

13) Rudy Fernandez (Spain) 6-6 SG--Just like Splitter, a lotto talent but has some contract issues as well. Very good athlete who is a potent finisher. Loves to run the floor. Very good outside shooter. Solid passer off the move as well. Has proven himself at highest level outside the NBA. Rudy was the 3rd best scorer in the toughest domestic league in Europe, finishing just behind L. Scola & Juan Navarro. Also, was 2nd in the league in steals just behind teenage phenom, Ricky Rubio. Was a key contributor on Spain's World Champ squad last summer where he shot the ball great & provided great energy off the bench, especially in the Semi vs. Argentina. Biggest drawback is his skinny frame--needs to start gorging on the paella, pronto.

14) Acie Law (Texas A & M)--Tough competitor who wants the ball in hands in crunchtime. Might be more of a 2-guard than a point, but the NBA seems to be kinder to combo or scoring points these days. Some people comparing him to Cassell, which I think is apt (their college numbers match up well), but also has shades of Van Exel in his game. Measured out better than expected & actually has the same standing reach as Crittenton. Shot the 3-ball really well this year, but was only 32% from deep thru is first 3 years. So not ready to call him a deadeye just yet, but he's seems adequate enough. Able to create shots for himself at the college level, but will it transfer to the next level since he's not an amazing athlete.

ODEN V DURANT, PART DEUXA couple days ago, I briefly chronicled why Kevin Durant was making me think harder than I ever thought I'd have to about the No. 1 pick.

I just wanted to follow up with a few quotes:Kevin Durant in SLAM:

"I think I have a winning mentality. Even though I'm young, I can bring leadership to an organization. I'm just cold-blooded. I really don't care. Whoever's in front of me, I'm going to do my best to destroy them."

And his own teammate Luc Longley, asked by a television reporter for a one-word description of Jordan, said simply, "predator."

All of these are just words, so I don't want to get carried away, and I certainly wasn't trying to compare Durant to Jordan overall - what I was trying to get at was this:

In the Oden v Durant blurb I wrote a couple days ago, I alluded to the fact that Durant is the X-factor - if you think he's a Jordan-Kobe type guy, he obviously goes 1; if you think he's a T-Mac or a Carmelo, he goes 2.

The more I read and discover about Durant, the more I think his mindset falls under the Jordan-Kobe category -- that he is single-minded about trying to become the best basketball player on Earth. Couple that with his skill set -- and Hollinger placing him off the charts based on his stats as well-- and I'm starting to believe that Durant leans more toward the Jordan-Kobe camp.

Still, I... just... can't... pull the trigger. The visions of Oden controlling the entire game on the defensive end just won't leave my head. He is too rare of a commodity.

Team Needs (Pacific Division)

The Pacific Division is a little hard to gauge right now with 2 teams possibly seriously shaking up their roster to get their hands on Garnett. I think whatever happens, the Suns look to be very good next year regardless of if any deal is made, & once again should be a title contender. Now with the Lakers, their situation is very tough to read because Kobe's trade demands seem legit, but it seems like Kupchak is trying to make deals to appease Kobe. The Warriors can build on their miraculous playoff experience by upgrading their frontcourt options. The Clips have the ability to compete for a playoff spot, but need to acquire more frontcourt depth & hope that Livingston can ever recover. With the Kings, they have to improve their frontcourt depth & decide what they want to do with Artest this summer.

*--You will notice the two parentheses next to the team name. The first one will either have "MLE" or a dollar amount in it. This just states if the team has the Mid-Level Exception (which is roughly $5 mil this year) that is awarded to every team that is over the salary cap. If a dollar amount is shown that means the team is under the salary cap. There are only a handful of teams under the salary cap (which has yet to be finalized, but should be around $53-55 million). The dollar amount is a rough estimation at this point, and can change to a degree for a myriad of technical things like cap holds, renounced rights, player options and the yet undetermined exact amount of this year's salary cap. The second parentheses just states the draft picks that each team presently owns.

GOLDEN STATE--(MLE) (#18): Post player; ReboundingDraft Targets: McRoberts; J. Smith; S. WilliamsTheir allegiance to smallball helped them pull off one of the biggest playoff upsets ever, but the smallball approach still has its major flaws. And these flaws were badly exposed in the Jazz series. When you go small, you usually will suffer on the boards & in the interior defensively. Imagine they are hot & heavy for Jianlian because his skill set at his size are exactly what the Warriors are looking for, and combine that with the Bay Area's huge Asian population. But they are currently positioned at the #18, out of Yi's range. If they can't move up, bigs like McRoberts, Jason Smith, & S. Williams might entice Mullin. Even though Fazekas does not have the requisite athleticism for Nellie's style, he does have deep range which Nellie loves in his bigs.

LA CLIPPERS--(MLE) (#14, #45) Combo guard; Back-ups BigsDraft Targets: Law; StuckeyThink Acie Law is the smart pick at #14 because if Livingston ever returns from injury & prospers, you could always move Law to the 2 alongside Shaun; basically taking Law opens up your options. But there is a real good chance that Law will be off the board, so maybe a back-up plan could be going after the next best combo guard, R. Stuckey. This team had very little depth on their frontline, Tim Thomas can slide to the 4, but he's really just a 3. With the MLE, they can search for viable back-up like Mihm, Mikki Moore, & Mel Ely. They also have to consider bringing over hulking Sofoklis Schortsanitis to back-up Brand. He has a very reasonable buyout, but he has really ballooned up since his great play in the Worlds, and somewhat underachieved this year.

LA LAKERS--(MLE) (#19, #40, #48): Shooting PG; Post PlayerDraft Targets: Pruitt; T. Green; McRoberts; J. SmithFor this entry gotta go with their roster as presently constituted, so doing this assuming Kobe stays around. Need to find a PG or combo guard who can drill jumpers. The question is do they take another young PG after drafting Farmar last year. Farmar showed some promise, especially vs. the Suns, but he's not really a great shooter, so maybe LA will consider players like Taurean Green or Gabe Pruitt in the 1st round. The Lakers should also think best big guy available at #19 with Kwame in the last year of his deal & Mihm a free agent. Bigs like McRoberts, J. Smith, & S. Williams could be on Mitch's radar.

PHOENIX--(MLE) (#24, #29): Center; Back-up PGDraft Targets: Pruitt; Koponen; SessionsAgain, this could be another team whose roster gets thrown for a loop in the next few days, but gotta go with how the Suns currently look now. Same refrain for the last few years: Need size, someone who can provide interior defense & rebounding--basically the Suns only weaknesses. With Kurt Thomas going into the last year of his deal & rumored to be on the trading block, a team with interior defensive issues could be soon losing their most competent low-block defender. The problem is that there probably will not be a viable option at #24 or #29 who can fill that void. So I'm not surprised that you're hearing rumors that the Suns are trying to broker a deal that will get them a lotto pick--Noah would the ideal target. Though the Suns can find a viable back-up with either their #24 or #29--guys like Pruitt, Koponen, Sessions & T. Green, and I expect the Suns to go PG with one of their picks, if they keep them.

SACRAMENTO--(MLE) (#10): Defensive 4/5; PG; ReboundingDraft Targets: Jianlian; J. Wright; B. WrightThe first order of business is to find a guy 6-10 or bigger who can provide some type of defensive & rebounding presence in the interior. The Kings have no one who could be considered a defensive juggernaut on the frontline, and their rebounding has to be improved upon as well. The problem facing the Kings is that at #10 guys like Noah & Horford should be off the board. Imagine they would be scoop up Jianlian if he's around for more than just basketball reasons, but I think there are a few teams picking above them who also love the marketing possibilities of Jianlian as well. Also, need a back-up PG who can provide some defense (could have taken care of this last year with Rondo, but Petrie blew it). At #10, probably should just grab the best player available. Should be a few good SFs to choose from at that spot like Thornton or J. Wright, and might be the right way to go with never knowing what Artest will do day-to-day.

Tuesday, June 26, 2007

Team Needs (Northwest Division)

The Northwest looks like it could be the up-and-coming division of the NBA. The Jazz look to have the ability to repeat this season's success for years to come thanks to the nasty 1-2 punch of Boozer & Deron. The Nugs have the talent to be very dangerous, but they have to figure out their PG position & get some scoring pop from the bench. And Portland is building arguably the most potent young core in the NBA, and is assured of procuring a potential Hall-o-Famer on draft night. While not everything is rosy with the Sonic organization, they are at least guaranteed of vastly improving their on-court fortunes with either Durant or Oden. The one team headed in the opposite direction of the other 4 teams has to be the TWolves. It looks very likely that KG will be on the move this summer, and looks like McHale has conceded to blow up the TWolves & head in another direction.

*--You will notice the two parentheses next to the team name. The first one will either have "MLE" or a dollar amount in it. This just states if the team has the Mid-Level Exception (which is roughly $5 mil this year) that is awarded to every team that is over the salary cap. If a dollar amount is shown that means the team is under the salary cap. There are only a handful of teams under the salary cap (which has yet to be finalized, but should be around $53-55 million). The dollar amount is a rough estimation at this point, and can change to a degree for a myriad of technical things like cap holds, renounced rights, player options and the yet undetermined exact amount of this year's salary cap. The second parentheses just states the draft picks that each team presently owns.

DENVER--(MLE) (None): PG; Bench scoring; ShootersNeed to find a PG who can flat-out stroke the outside shot. Blake is just not a good fit next to Iverson & Melo, because he does not make teams pay for leaving him to help on the other 2 guys. Nugs are in a tough spot because right now they look to be well into Luxury Tax Land, & are scheduled to shell out about $20 mil in lux tax cash. This is why you hear about rumors that Camby could be on the move. Would probably love to deal KMart if they could, but he's damaged goods with the bad knees combined with his onerous contract. And as always, the Nugs could look to improve their outside shooting, so guys like Mo Pete, Kapono, & Matt Carroll in free agency.

MINNESOTA-- (MLE) (#7, #41): Center; Shooter; PGDraft Targets: Noah; Hawes; Jianlian; ConleyRealize that KG could likely be on the move, but I have to evaluate what the team needs are at this present time, so these needs could obviously change in the next week. Think #7 should be an easy choice: if Noah's there, take him. This team needs a big who can either back-up Blount or displace him in the starting lineup. Noah also can help shore up the TWolves' poor rebounding. Their outside shooting has not been the same since Wally left, so going after Demetris Nichols with the #41 pick could be a good idea. This team could also use a true PG to allow Foye to move off the ball more. Conley more than likely will not be around at #7, so they might have to chase a capable PG in free agency like Chucky Atkins to tide them over for the time being.

PORTLAND--(MLE) (#1, #37, #42, #52, #53): SFDraft Targets: Oden or DurantMaybe Durant has a legit shot to land here. But I have to go with the consensus that Mr. Oden is Portland's man. The one thing that gives you some pause that Durant is a serious contender is that the Blazers' one obvious weakness right now is the SF spot. And on top of that, they just drafted a promising young big last year in L. Aldridge. So I wouldn't be stunned if Pritchard takes Durant, though I doubt it. If I'm the Blazers, I have no use for all 4 2nd round picks considering all the young guys taken in last year's draft. So I would definitely expect the Blazers to have some sort of package deal working to go after a SF, if Oden goes #1.

SEATTLE--(MLE) (#2, #31, #35): SF; Wing defenderDraft Targets: Durant or OdenEasiest decision in the draft, actually Portland is making the decision for the Sonics. Assuming Durant is there, it surely means Lewis is done in Sonic Green & Gold. The issue will be if the Sonics decide to just let Lewis walk or look to sign/trade him. With their two 2nd round picks should just go with the best player available, preferably someone who can provide a much-needed defensive mindset, maybe a guy like DJ Strawberry could be considered.

UTAH--(MLE) (#25, #55): 2-guard; Athletic CenterDraft Targets: Belinelli; Fernandez; Almond; StuckeyThe Jazz have an affinity for Euros, so guys like Belinelli or Fernandez could be the right fit at #25. And both Euro shooting guards can hit the long-ball, which is much needed since the Jazz have been one of the weakest 3pt. shooting teams the last few years. Belinelli might be the better bet because he does not have buyout issues like Rudy. Rice's Morris Almond is another possibilty at #25. Also, think they could use an athletic frontcourt defender, because their rotation of centers are pretty ground-bound.

NBA Draft Preview--#15-25 Prospects

Below is Part II of our draft prospect list. Here we rank the players 15 thru 25, and add a few honorable mentions who could be considered in the late 1st/early 2nd round. *--Did not rank East Washington's Rod Stuckey because I never saw him play in a live game setting. It sounds like he has the talent to be placed somewhere in the #15-#20 area.

15) Al Thornton (Florida St.) 6-7 SFHe the one a guy I waver back-n-forth on the most in the draft. I could just as easily see this guy being a pretty good long-term pro as I could see him being a bust. There is one or two guys in every draft you just have to go on a gut feeling about their prospects, and I'm just not feeling Thornton starring at the next level. Has he hit his ceiling because he is 23 years old? Tough call. He still seems to have some rawness to his game, which is not a good thing at 23 years. Explosive athlete who finishes with authority, often in traffic. Encouraging that he became more of a 3pt. threat as his tenure at Fla St. progressed. Has shown the ability to hit mid-range jumpers consistently.

16) Javaris Crittenton (Georgia Tech) 6-4 PG--Good size for a PG which perks up the ears of GMs, but actually has the same standing reach as Law. I question how much of a pure point he is--don't know if he sees the floor as well as he could. Did average nearly 6 apg this year, but nearly neutralized this goodwill by averaging a whopping 4 TOpg. Very good athlete who has a nice ability to get into the lane when he wants. Solid shooter, but nothing special. His size & length does allow him to be a pretty solid defensive player, which should translate well to the next level. Again another guy who probably should have stayed in school another year.

17) Spencer Hawes (Wash.) 7-0 C--As you can see I ain't that high on Spencer. Lacks athleticism. Concerned about his rebounding ability. Possible explanation is he played next to one of the most ferocius rebounders/competitors in the NCAA, Jon Brockman, who ate into his reb total--it's possible. But shouldn't the 7-footer be the one dictating what happens on the boards? Can play in the high post with his great passing instincts. Has great footwork & a string understanding of the game. Can finish around the basket with either hand. Uses hook shots well. Not as much of a defensive presence as he should have been. Not really all that enamoured with him, though he could project to be like Rik Smits, which ain't half bad.

18) Marco Belinelli (Italy) 6-6 SG--Has one of the sweetest shooting strokes in the draft & has unlimited range on his jumper. Is a threat to pull-up from anywhere out to 25 feet. Superb athlete who has great slashing ability, just needs to stop settling for jumpers so much. His shot selection needs to be improved upon. Sort of a poor man's Vince Carter--long, slender athlete who would rather shoot off-balance jumpers than using his athleticism to his advantage Also, a good ball-handler & passer who can play a little point like Vince when needed. Need to pack on some lbs. Was the best player on the floor in the 1st half of the US-Italy game last summer.

19) Jason Smith (Colorado St) 7-0 PF/C--Only seen Smith play a few games, so this is a small sample I'm dealing with. First thing you're pleasantly impressed with fluid movement & athleticism for his size. Pretty well-built & has a frame that can fill out even more. The other impressive facit of his game is his nice shooting shooting stroke--solid face-up ability. Seemed comfortable putting the ball on the deck as well, which was nice to see in a 7-footer. Good rebounder. His turnovers were disturbingly too high for a frontcourt guy.

20) Thaddeus Young (Georgia Tech) 6-7 SF--Great athlete with a ton of potential but still probably could use at least another year of college. Solid shooter from the perimeter, but it's tough to say right now what his mid-range ability will be at the next level. Seems to be to a little left-hand dominant right now & needs to work on adjusting that part of his game or teams will look to expose it at will.

21) Morris Almond (Rice) 6-6 SG--Next to Nick Young has one of the better mid-range games of draftees. Great shooter who is adept at drilling shots coming off screens. Not a great athlete, but still was able to easily create shots for himself as well as anyone in the NCAA. He made a living at the foul line, getting there 9 times per game, and was a 85% shooter when he got there. Pretty good rebounder for a 2-guard.

22) Daequan Cook (Ohio St) 6-6 SG--This kid is really hard to gauge, because he really fell out of favor with Matta as the season went on. Somewhat concerning is Cook did most of his damage early on in the season vs. lower-rated competition, then had his productivity fall off as the season progressed. But you did see glimpses of his enticing potential throughout his Frosh year. Very good athlete with strong frame who has the potential to be a potent wing scorer at the next level. Nice shooter from deep who has shown the ability to hit off the dribble in-between as well. Very effective rebounder in limited minutes. Would loved to seen him stay another year so to get a better read on his game.

23) Gabe Pruitt (USC) 6-4 PG--Been intrigued by Gabe since his Frosh year. Great athlete with nice length for a PG. Excellent defender with quick hands who can easily transfer this ability to the next level thanks to his length & speed. Could be a nuisance for opposing PGs with his ability to pressure the ball. My major hesitation with Gabe, much like with Law & Crittenton, is he a true PG? Was moved off the ball more often last year, but was moved backed to more point duty this year. Though his overall numbers might not quite bare it out, he does have a nice shooting stroke.

24) Nick Fazekas (Nevada) 6-11 PF/C--Has one of the sweetest strokes ever for a guy his size, legit 3pt range. Might be the most fundamentally big in the draft. Nice soft hands, good passing instincts. Has the ability to post a little bit away from the block, similar to what Brand does. So I'm not as concerned as others that he can't hold his position on offense. Has a quick release off his post moves, sort of reminds me of Antawn Jamison. Could be great in pick-n-pop situations. Basically, the only thing holding him back from being a lotto pick is his physical package. Very slow with an awkward gait, and though he put on some weight this year, he's still weak, especially a weak base. I have to wonder if his rebounding efficiency goes down because he won't be able to hold position down low very well--opponents should be able to manhandle him, & he should be a major defensive liability. He really does not like much contact, and he wanted nothing to do with mixing it up with Memphis' Joey Dorsey in the Tourney. I think he will struggle to be a starter in the NBA, but should stick around the league for awhile because of his shooting prowess. Does remind me of Christian Laettner somewhat, but think Laettner might have been an even better athlete than Nick.

25) Josh McRoberts (Duke) 6-10 PF--Probably underachieved this past season, but still has promising pro potential. Good athlete with nice length. His most favorable trait is his ball-handling & passing. For a guy 6-10 & could be a very valuable in a system that moves their bigs to the high post. His toughness is definitely a question mark. Pretty good shot-blocker who gets them out of his area. Subpar foul shooter. Solid finisher with good hops, who runs the floor well.

Bonus Sleeper Pick: Jared Dudley (Boston College) 6-7 SF--Savvy, seasoned player. High basketball IQ, a guy who does a little bit of everything well, nothing great. His passing skills have been honed from playing in a flex system. Nice footwork. Subpar athlete who could have some issues trying to defend SF at the next level. Shot the ball well this year, but not sure I would sign off on saying he's a good shooter--the NBA 3pt. line might be a little bit out of his range. Pretty good rebounder. Probably better suited as a back-up, but could be a very valuable addition to any team looking for a role-player off the bench.

Team Needs (Southwest Division)

Arguably the toughest division in the NBA with 3 teams who have a legit shot at bringing home the O'Brien Trophy. The 3rd place team, Houston, could have very likely won the East title if they switched conferences. The Spurs & Mavs still should be serious contenders for the West title, and the Rockets are very dangerous, especially if they can find an adequate starter at PF. Also, if New Orleans can stay healthy next year, they could be the sleeper team out West, possibly securing a 4th playoff spot for the Southwest. Memphis has a lot work to do if they want to contend for a bottom playoff spot, but they do have one advantage over every other Western team: Memphis is the only West team with some significant cap space.

*--You will notice the two parentheses next to the team name. The first one will either have "MLE" or a dollar amount in it. This just states if the team has the Mid-Level Exception (which is roughly $5 mil this year) that is awarded to every team that is over the salary cap. If a dollar amount is shown that means the team is under the salary cap. There are only a handful of teams under the salary cap (which has yet to be finalized, but should be around $53-55 million). The dollar amount is a rough estimation at this point, and can change to a degree for a myriad of technical things like cap holds, renounced rights, player options and the yet undetermined exact amount of this year's salary cap. The second parentheses just states the draft picks that each team presently owns.

DALLAS--(MLE) (#34, #50, #60): Low-post scorer; Bench scoringDraft Targets: G. Davis; A. Gray; Visser; FazekasWell something we pointed to in in last year's Team Needs) & in this year's Mid-Season Team Needs post really came back to haunt the Mavs this year. They never could take advantage of the Warriors' weak interior defense because they played right into Nellie's hands by sticking with their jumpshot-centric mentality. Overall, don't think they need to overreact, and I don't think Cuban will; it was just a fluky, once in a lifetime series. Remember, the Mavs still won 67 games and are still equipped to challenge for a title, but do have to make some adjustments going into 07/08. Definitely need to find a back-up behind Dirk, and they could target someone who can give Dallas the much needed post scoring they lack. The problem right now is Dallas' first pick comes at #34, where they might not be able to find someone who can contribute right away. LSU's Glen Davis might be the best option at that spot to provide low-block scoring, though his ability to get off shots in the pros is in question with his undersized height & lack of hops. If they can't retain Stack they will need to find someone who can provide scoring punch off the bench. Might think about trying to choose between Diop & Damp since neither guy provides much offensively.

HOUSTON--(MLE) (#26): PF; Back-up 5Draft Targets: Fazekas; McRoberts; S. Williams; G. DavisThey have to fill their massive hole at the 4 spot, which was really exposed in the Utah series, where they had no antidote for Boozer. And they should look for a 4 that is athletic since their frontline is severely lacking. They also have to establish a 3rd scoring option, but may have partly answered that issue with Bonzi recently saying he's willing to stick around. Also, alongside acquiring a starting caliber 4, they need to consider picking up a back-up center since Dikembe won't be around much longer. It seems that Rockets are interested in Fazekas at #26, and though he is a 4/5, he ain't very athletic & probably not starting caliber. But he does shoot the ball extremely well, and could help spread the floor for Yao & TMac. Also, Nick can function well at the high post, which could be important with Adelman at the helm. All I know is, if you bring in Fazekas, you better go after an athletic 4/5 in free agency like Mikki Moore or someone who can defend 4s. Not a huge fan of McRoberts, but if he's still around at #26, he could be a good fit with his athleticism & his ability to play the high post--Josh's passing & ball-handling could come in handy if Adelman brings the Princeton-flavored offense from Sacto to Houston.

MEMPHIS--($8mil-$10) (#4): PG; Post playerDraft Targets: Horford; Conley; NoahThink their draft pick should be easy to choose: if Horford is gone, it's either Conley or Noah. Really could use a starting caliber PG, Damon is better suited as a back-up at this point in his career, while Lowry is just a change-o-pace point off the bench. Also, need help on their frontline, someone who can specialize in defense & rebounding. The Grizzlies were a terrible defensive unit this year & their rebounding was not too special either--this is why Noah makes a ton of sense. Memphis is the only team in the West who has cap space to chase major free agents, the issue is will they use it since the organization is financially struggling & have an uncertain future in the city of Memphis. If they go with Conley at #4, look for the Grizz to set their free agent sights on bigs like Varejao, McDyess (if he opts out), Darko, & possibly Magloire (a guy they've flirted with in the past). If they go with a big at #4, I would imagine they will make overtures toward Billups, but they will probably not have enough money to make a serious run & will turn their attention toward Mo Williams.

NEW ORLEANS--(MLE) (#13, #43): SG; Back-up PGDraft Targets: N. Young; T. Young; Stuckey; R. Fernandez; BelinelliPretty amazing that this team was able to finish 39-43 with the multitude of injuries scattered thru-out the roster. To think Paul missed 18 games, D. West missed 30, Peja missed 70, and the Hornets still were fighting for a playoff berth until the last 2 weeks of the season. We felt for a long time Byron Scott does not get the credit he deserves, and after doing a Coach-o-Year caliber last year, he did another tremendous job this year. The Hornets' summer duties are quite clear-cut: find a shooting guard. Think Nick Young is the best pure 2-guard in the draft & he could still be around at #13, and it's a no-brainer for the Hornets to take him if he is. If he's gone Thaddeus Young might be their best bet, and there are rumors the Hornets are high on him because he has ties to the city. Actually think Rudy Fernandez has the talent to be picked at #13--it's just that he is a somewhat risky pick because of uncertainty with his contract situation in Europe. Don't think it would be a reach to consider Italian Marco Belinelli or East Wash.'s R. Stuckey at #13, if Nick Young is not around.

SAN ANTONIO--(MLE) (#28, #33, # 58): Wings; Back-up PGDraft Targets: Almond; Belinelli; Fernandez; PruittThe Champs look to be in the hunt again next year with their Big 3 intact, but Buford & Pop do have some work ahead to shore up the auxilliary help around the Big 3. First off, the Spurs have to get younger on the wings: all of their rotation wings are 30 & above, not to mention 3 guys over 34. They have had great success with foreign players in the past, so I'm sure Belinelli & R. Fernandez are on their radar at #28. It looks like Pop has lost all confidence in Udrih, and Vaughn is an unrestricted FA, so the back-up PG role will need to be addressed this summer. If they look to answer this need in the draft, the points that should be available in the late 1st/early 2nd where the Spurs have 2 picks are guys like G. Pruitt, Koponen, T. Green, & R. Sessions. After they fill these voids, they could always look to add some more frontcourt help, especially since Oberto has decided to opt out. If they don't re-sign Oberto to a reasonable deal, they could turn their attention to free agents like Mikki Moore, C. Mihm, & Magloire.

Draft Musings: The Big Choice; 2007 vs 2003

ODEN VS. DURANTI've really thought that this was an easy decision all the way: Oden, Oden, Oden. Go with the big guy who can control the lane - Shaq and Timmy have won eight of the last nine, after all.

As we move further into this era of smallball, it seems as if guys like Duncan and Horry are proving that some of the most valuable players to have are bigs who are agile enough to get out and cover on the floor. And Oden's biggest strength, of course, is the superlative athleticism he brings to the defensive end of the floor. I can imagine him swallowing up pick-and-rolls on the perimeter as easily I can picture him defending the goal inside.

So Oden, on a certain level, is a constant. Durant, meanwhile, is the X-factor. The guy's going to be a serious star, for sure, but the question is how high will he fly? If he's going to be a Jordan or a LeBron or a Kobe, then you want him No. 1, if he's going to be a McGrady or a Carmelo or a Penny Hardaway (if you're scoffing at Penny, then you're forgetting how good he was back in the day), then you want to stick with Oden.

I've thought all along that Durant is not a Jordan/LeBron-level talent, but I dunno, something in the back of my head is making me reconsider... just the way he carries himself and talks about his game - he seems so determined to truly become a franchise player....

Still, in the end, I can't do it. Oden just has too much going for him at 7-1 with exceptional length and athleticism for me to pass him up. Greg Oden is the pick I'd make if I were Kevin Pritchard. But Kevin Durant is making me thinking harder than I ever thought I'd have to.

2007 VS. 2003Lots of people are talking about in historic terms, as one of the best drafts in years. Certainly, I think it's going to be a splendid draft - it's really overloaded b/c of so many guys who seemed to be coming out in 2006 but didn't, either because of the increase in the age limit or the Florida guys deciding to stay in school.

That said, I still don't think 2007 will ultimately match up with the 2003 draft. I've listed this whole baby below for your perusal. Here are my notes:- Right off the top, I think that both LeBron and D-Wade will have better careers than Oden and Durant.- I guess I'm just not sold on some of the second tier of this year's draft - I don't see guys like Noah and Yi and Hawes and B. Wright turning into stars. I don't see a potential 30 ppg scorer like Melo or I don't think there's a perennial All-Star 20/10 guy like Bosh, although I do think Big Al Horford has a chance to be one, and I really like Julian Wright's game if he can be consistent.- I will say that, while Kirk Hinrich and T.J. Ford are a solid PG duo from '03, I think I like Conley and Acie Law better. - Say what you want about Chris Kaman, but he's an agile, skilled guy who can be a 10/10 player - I think he's a better pro than either Noah or Hawes will be.- 2003 does get a little ugly with that Gaines-Bell-Carbakapa run from 15-17, but man does it pick up from 18-29 - true studs like Josh Howard and Barbosa, plus solid guys like West, Diaw and Pavlovic, and I still think Outlaw, Perkins and Delfino could blossom. I give 2003 an extra edge b/c of that bottom-of-the-1st-round depth, though I do think guys like Thaddeus Young, Rudy Fernandez, and Josh McRoberts - among others - have a lot of potential.- 2003 delivered a really nice 2nd round, too, with this list of contributors: Walton, Korver, Kapono, Mo Williams, James Jones, Pachulia, Blake.- Subtract points from 2003 for one word: Darko.

Monday, June 25, 2007

Team Needs (Southeast)

Sort of tricky to read where the Southeast Division is headed next year, with 2 teams having some significant money to play with in free agency, another team with multiple lotto picks, and one aging team that has most of its money tied up in 3 players & has only 7 players under contract. Even with multiple question marks with their roster, if Miami can stay healthy, they can challenge for another division title. The Magic look like they are headed in a positive direction and if they can find some sort of scorer on the wing, they could secure another trip to the playoffs. Wizards can also make another playoff run, but if they want to seriously challenge for an East title, they have to change their defensive mentality. Hawks have to use their lottery picks wisely, and hopefully fill their voids at PG & in the frontcourt. No one has close to the cap space as the Bobcats, so they hold a ton of leverage this summer to either be the top suitor toward free agents or as a trade partner for teams looking to unload big contracts.

*--You will notice the two parentheses next to the team name. The first one will either have "MLE" or a dollar amount in it. This just states if the team has the Mid-Level Exception (which is roughly $5 mil this year) that is awarded to every team that is over the salary cap. If a dollar amount is shown that means the team is under the salary cap. There are only a handful of teams under the salary cap (which has yet to be finalized, but should be around $53-55 million). The dollar amount is a rough estimation at this point, and can change to a degree for a myriad of technical things like cap holds, renounced rights, player options and the yet undetermined exact amount of this year's salary cap. The second parentheses just states the draft picks that each team presently owns.

ATLANTA--(MLE) (#3, #11): PG; Post player; ShooterDraft Targets: Horford; Conley; LawThe ping-pong balls shook out in their favor and the draft looks to be pretty cut & dry from the Hawks' persceptive. The #3 pick should be narrowed to 2: Al Horford or Mike Conley. If they take Horford at #3, they can still take a viable PG at #11, with Acie Law more than likely still around. If they take Conley at #3, they would want to get a big at #11, but guys like Noah or Hawes might not be around. In free agency, Atl should probably hone in on a defensive-minded center to pair with newly acquired defensive stalwart Horford. But there are slim pickings out there: maybe Magloire or Mikki Moore can be pursued. The Hawks were also dead last in 3pt. shooting, so guys like Kapono or Mo Pete could be on their radar.

CHARLOTTE--($25mil) (#8, #22): Scoring; Wing; Back-up PGDraft Targets: Brewer; J. Green; J. Wright; N. YoungNo team has more leverage in free agency or as a trading partner where teams looking to dump contracts & not take back equal money. The first step is probably to deal with their wing positions. G. Wallace can become an unrestricted FA, and it seems like Morrison might not be as potent of a scorer as first thought. But I still think you can't write off Adam this early, so maybe the Bobcats should focus on a defensive-minded wing, especially if Wallace leaves, and the perfect fit would be Brewer (if still there). Though that would not really answer the call for more offense, so guys like J. Green & N. Young should be under heavy consideration. Charlotte might need a back-up PG if Brevin Knight is not retained--a PG who has some size & can shoot would be ideal to offset Felton. When it comes to free agency it will be very interesting to see if the Bobcats go hard after Lewis or Vince, or if they sit on some of their money to make a splash next summer when the free agent crop looks great.

MIAMI--(MLE) (#20): PG; Back-up 4/5; WingDraft Targets: Pruitt; T. Green; Crittenton; KoponenThis team has some holes to fill, but is somewhat hamstrung by having most of their money tied up in Shaq & Wade, not to mention Ant Walker. Would say that Miami's primary concern has to be at the PG spot with JWilliams heading into his walk year, and Payton probably retiring. If they look to fill that void in the draft, at #20 Gabe Pruitt could be still around & he would be the best bet there. Other PGs like Crittenton, T. Green, & P. Koponen are other possibilities. The SF position is also a little sketchy right now with Posey, Kapono, & Ed Jones all unrestricted FAs. Also, could use an infusion of youth on their frontline, someone to groom behind Shaq would be a good idea. Plus, you can expect Shaq to miss 20-25 games because of legit injuries or just self-imposed rest.

ORLANDO--($8mil??) (#39, #44, #54): Scoring Wing; Post playerDraft Targets: A. Gray; Fazekas; G. DavisThis squad is in desperate need of scoring, period. At this point they really don't have anyone capable of averaging 20 ppg. Dwight is close to being there (and probably could if he just hit his free throws), but he's still a year or two off from being a potent scorer - still needs to polish his post game. So they need to focus on someone who's a multi-dimensional threat on the perimeter who can slash to the bucket; Redick & Hedo ain't ever gonna be living in the lane off their penetration. Even if they re-sign Darko, they could still use some more depth on the frontline. Guys like Aaron Gray. Nick Fazekas, or Glen Davis could do the trick in the 2nd round & could be available at #39 or #44. What's a little tricky to gauge about Orlando's situation right now, is exactly how much money they will have to use in free agency this summer. A lot of it hinges on what they plan to do with Darko, who is a restricted F.A. If they sign Darko to just a one-year tender or sign him to multiple years, then they will have about $6-8 mil to spend, which won't be enough for Lewis or Vince. If they choose not to match an offer sheet for Darko, then they could have the ability to go after top-notch free agent wings like Vince or Rashard. If the Magic aren't left with enough dough to go after Carter or Lewis, they will have to calibrate their sights to free agents like Bonzi, Nocioni, or G. Wallace.

WASHINGTON--(MLE) (#16, #47): Center; Rebounding; True PGDraft Targets: Splitter; J. Smith; Crittenton; PruittThe Wiz need to find some sort of answer in the middle. Brendan Haywood is way too inconsistent to count on as a starter & they could possibly lose promising 7-foot Andray Blatche in free agency. It would be nice if this team could find some sort of defensive-minded role player at any position, especially if Deshawn Stevenson leaves. At #16, the Wiz should go with the best big available. A guy who can play the 4/5 would be a bonus since Jamison is in the last year of his deal. Think Splitter would be an ideal fit because he can play the 4/5 and is known for his defense & rebounding--two things the Wiz desparately need. Others to consider are McRoberts, Jason Smith, & S. Williams. They also could consider going with a PG, specifically one with some size so they can move Arenas to the 2-guard more (the roster is devoid of a pure point). You could have 2 big PGs at #16 that could fit the bill in Crittenton & G. Pruitt. Need to get Euroleague stud, Juan Navarro, over to DC as quickly as possible, but he has a big buyout.