Analysis from the Tampa Bay coaches film

Originally posted by dtg_9er:
I wonder--sometimes, when you are teaching someone a new set of skills, the student regresses in the instinctive aspects of the job. Seems CK may be trying to see progressions in a certain way that is new to him and it causes him to miss some pretty obvious opportunities. Not a rare thing in any learning environment and learning the NFL QB position would be pretty daunting! You never know how long it will take for that student to master the nuances and become fluid...a year, a day...

Could that explain your AR theory NC? They're telling him to look at the obvious guy first and foremost and if he's comfortable go to the next and the next?

It could...starts with offensive philosophy and play design, play calling, CK development and coaching are a tight marriage...which is why I try to look at the whole play each time.

In this case I don't think we even run a progression read passing attack like a true or modern-day WCO (high-to-low progressions). That's pretty obvious to date. And the PS passing plays we run? I'm not sure there is a primary, secondary, etc. progression built in there as well; Spread typically is left-to-right ot vice versa but the onus in both cases relies heaviliy on the QB to find the best option. It appears to me that even when we run a PS play, CK's head angle and body language is to sit back in shot gun and quickly hit the best option under the standard 3 second mark. Why is this significant? B/c you have a QB who isn't even "looking" to a second read the mass mass majority of the time (if at all); it's typically AR1 and then ad lib (which we're getting MUCH better at BTW).

The other thing that I can't ignore is coaching in all of this. This is what you highlighted. This is why I couldn't rule out that Crabtree "miss" as an AR1 design. When you have a WR waving his hands and running across your sightlight, or you're literally, starring him down (Baldwin) and there isn't a defender within 10 yards of him and you don't pull the trigger (stay with the AR1 or original design despite double coverage) and/or decide to run instead, THAT may be coaching and NOT a vision-thing. CK may just be towing the company line here (I'd hate to believe this but it fits the coaching M.O. and philosophy well) and perhaps, he's had had the team concept of "execution" so ingrained in his mind, he can't even SEE anything else until that internal 3+ clock has ticked off and he is coached to be off and running (ad lib). Another clue to this coaching idea, is the instincts you highlighted as well. What happens when that 3 second clock expires? Have you ever noticed CK is often times, looking to scramble right, right INTO pressure instead of staying in a quiet, well-blocked pocket? This may be an indication of coaching as well. If this was a WCO or Spread with progressions built into the passing game, he'd be required to stay in that pocket as long as possible hoping that the secondary progressions would be opening up. But he's not. Yet his "instincts" have been great outside the pocket in ad lib mode lately so...?

Once thing we've learned about Roman is he is all about installations...for a while there he'd add another layer each week. Since Crabtree has been back, I have seen a few more PS plays being added and this is a good sign b/c that puts more onus (and trust) in CK to find the best option (many have been incompletions to Manningham IIRC though). Perhaps once he becomes more successful, the next layer of installations (once the coaching staff can trust CK) WILL be a small installation package with TRUE progression reads built in.

But we don't want paralysis by analysis so I expect our game plan to be stocked with AR1's by design and more and more PS plays added in the interim.

Well, a lot of teams haven't been running a 2 deep safety look against ATL. Instead, they're running a cover 3 zone while keeping an eye on White, and then doubling Gonzales in a lot of man situations. This has allowed Douglas to get 1-1 with a safety at times or 1-1 with the teams #2 corner. Also, remember White was hobbled for a while and Julio is out. He was the primary outside receiver for a while. Douglas is a bid bodied guy, like Julio. So, there are some times that when he gets 1-1 that he has the definitive size advantage. But, unlike Julio, he doesn't have the top end speed or timing to really become a consistent deep threat. His body type is much more suited for the outside than the slot where he's been playing so his production has increased in that regard.

So who do you think will be on Douglas in this game? Will it be Brown or Brock? Douglas will have a size advantage on both, but maybe Brock will be more effective against him.

Unlike some teams, we don't pit our corners against a particular guy, we play with a left and right corner. So, it'll be whose ever side he's on.

Didn't know that. And I'm assuming that benefits us right? Not having to move our corners around?

Originally posted by jonnydel:
Well, a lot of teams haven't been running a 2 deep safety look against ATL. Instead, they're running a cover 3 zone while keeping an eye on White, and then doubling Gonzales in a lot of man situations. This has allowed Douglas to get 1-1 with a safety at times or 1-1 with the teams #2 corner. Also, remember White was hobbled for a while and Julio is out. He was the primary outside receiver for a while. Douglas is a bid bodied guy, like Julio. So, there are some times that when he gets 1-1 that he has the definitive size advantage. But, unlike Julio, he doesn't have the top end speed or timing to really become a consistent deep threat. His body type is much more suited for the outside than the slot where he's been playing so his production has increased in that regard.

So who do you think will be on Douglas in this game? Will it be Brown or Brock? Douglas will have a size advantage on both, but maybe Brock will be more effective against him.

Unlike some teams, we don't pit our corners against a particular guy, we play with a left and right corner. So, it'll be whose ever side he's on.

Didn't know that. And I'm assuming that benefits us right? Not having to move our corners around?

It goes back to a disguise thing. When a team puts their best corner on the other team's best receiver, it means they're in man coverage. If they were in zone it doesn't make any sense because that receiver can just get run out of their zone. So, if we consistently put Rogers(for example) against the other team's #1 receiver in man coverage, it makes it much easier on the QB to determine when we're in man coverage. By not doing that, it helps Fangio keep his disguise look. I covered i the seahawks analysis thread about why we play our corners in off coverage so often. It's all about disguise. It allows us to run virtually every defense we want to from that look. Same thing with the left and right corner.

From the Offensive side, I see us, first, attacking their D-ends. Their D-tackles are very active. Babineaux in particular. I see us running a lot of sweep's and D-end traps. Also, using James like we did against the Buc's to attack the edges, especially to Dunta Robinson's side. Dunta Robinson has been burned that last few weeks trying to be overly aggressive in run support from his corner position. I see us hitting the edges early in the run game to set up a corner or wheel route with Vernon against Robinson(usually plays the right side corner) early in the 2nd quarter(probably by our 3rd possession) off of PA.

I think it also makes sense to run right at their best pass rusher, Umenyiora. This will wear him down, and will slow down his pass rushing as the game goes on.

NC--I love your use of the term "paralysis by analysis." This is exactly what I think is happening to an extent. CK is just learning many of the nuances of NFL football and his receivers, blockers and backs are all still learning...which is why Gore and Crabtree tend to do well while others struggle...that and talent of course! I would expect the playoffs to be smoother...though that didn't happen last year. What if--the niners had Boldin and Crabtree in last year's Super Bowl? CK still would be inexperienced but he would have three targets with pretty equal quality...VD being the third. The RZ would not have been an automatic triple team on Crabtree. I don't blame anyone for the SB loss...a very good coach figured out how to beat a first year QB...not surprising!

Originally posted by jonnydel:It goes back to a disguise thing. When a team puts their best corner on the other team's best receiver, it means they're in man coverage. If they were in zone it doesn't make any sense because that receiver can just get run out of their zone. So, if we consistently put Rogers(for example) against the other team's #1 receiver in man coverage, it makes it much easier on the QB to determine when we're in man coverage. By not doing that, it helps Fangio keep his disguise look. I covered i the seahawks analysis thread about why we play our corners in off coverage so often. It's all about disguise. It allows us to run virtually every defense we want to from that look. Same thing with the left and right corner.

Good stuff. Those CBs giving such a cushion is frustrating when the opposing offense completes the simple 8 yard out pitch and catch, but to a QB, giving the same look down after down can make them very unsure of their pre-snap reads.

Originally posted by jonnydel:
Well, a lot of teams haven't been running a 2 deep safety look against ATL. Instead, they're running a cover 3 zone while keeping an eye on White, and then doubling Gonzales in a lot of man situations. This has allowed Douglas to get 1-1 with a safety at times or 1-1 with the teams #2 corner. Also, remember White was hobbled for a while and Julio is out. He was the primary outside receiver for a while. Douglas is a bid bodied guy, like Julio. So, there are some times that when he gets 1-1 that he has the definitive size advantage. But, unlike Julio, he doesn't have the top end speed or timing to really become a consistent deep threat. His body type is much more suited for the outside than the slot where he's been playing so his production has increased in that regard.

So who do you think will be on Douglas in this game? Will it be Brown or Brock? Douglas will have a size advantage on both, but maybe Brock will be more effective against him.

Unlike some teams, we don't pit our corners against a particular guy, we play with a left and right corner. So, it'll be whose ever side he's on.

Didn't know that. And I'm assuming that benefits us right? Not having to move our corners around?

It goes back to a disguise thing. When a team puts their best corner on the other team's best receiver, it means they're in man coverage. If they were in zone it doesn't make any sense because that receiver can just get run out of their zone. So, if we consistently put Rogers(for example) against the other team's #1 receiver in man coverage, it makes it much easier on the QB to determine when we're in man coverage. By not doing that, it helps Fangio keep his disguise look. I covered i the seahawks analysis thread about why we play our corners in off coverage so often. It's all about disguise. It allows us to run virtually every defense we want to from that look. Same thing with the left and right corner.

jonnydel, major cudos for your work in this thread. The only thing better might be a duet of sorts with Marvin's thread. You do a good job of breaking things down with enough detail to distinguish the armchair fans from the ones who've actually played the game. It's pretty cool to see how you've broken down our offense and it actually helps bring confidence in what the 49ers are trying to do scheme-wise. Are there improvements, of course, but I know of not many teams (at any level) that are content with their current levels of performance anyways....that's why you participate in sports....

Originally posted by jonnydel:
Well, a lot of teams haven't been running a 2 deep safety look against ATL. Instead, they're running a cover 3 zone while keeping an eye on White, and then doubling Gonzales in a lot of man situations. This has allowed Douglas to get 1-1 with a safety at times or 1-1 with the teams #2 corner. Also, remember White was hobbled for a while and Julio is out. He was the primary outside receiver for a while. Douglas is a bid bodied guy, like Julio. So, there are some times that when he gets 1-1 that he has the definitive size advantage. But, unlike Julio, he doesn't have the top end speed or timing to really become a consistent deep threat. His body type is much more suited for the outside than the slot where he's been playing so his production has increased in that regard.

So who do you think will be on Douglas in this game? Will it be Brown or Brock? Douglas will have a size advantage on both, but maybe Brock will be more effective against him.

Unlike some teams, we don't pit our corners against a particular guy, we play with a left and right corner. So, it'll be whose ever side he's on.

Didn't know that. And I'm assuming that benefits us right? Not having to move our corners around?

It goes back to a disguise thing. When a team puts their best corner on the other team's best receiver, it means they're in man coverage. If they were in zone it doesn't make any sense because that receiver can just get run out of their zone. So, if we consistently put Rogers(for example) against the other team's #1 receiver in man coverage, it makes it much easier on the QB to determine when we're in man coverage. By not doing that, it helps Fangio keep his disguise look. I covered i the seahawks analysis thread about why we play our corners in off coverage so often. It's all about disguise. It allows us to run virtually every defense we want to from that look. Same thing with the left and right corner.

jonnydel, major cudos for your work in this thread. The only thing better might be a duet of sorts with Marvin's thread. You do a good job of breaking things down with enough detail to distinguish the armchair fans from the ones who've actually played the game. It's pretty cool to see how you've broken down our offense and it actually helps bring confidence in what the 49ers are trying to do scheme-wise. Are there improvements, of course, but I know of not many teams (at any level) that are content with their current levels of performance anyways....that's why you participate in sports....

Originally posted by thl408:
This is play #12 of the thumbnail (post #56 for reference). 2Q 2:01

49ers: Mesh concept out of 12 personnel
TB: Man coverage

Here the 49ers run the mesh concept on each side of the field.

Below: With a blitz dialed up, the Bucs call man coverage all around the field. The blue lines indicate who is covering who. In theory, this playcall will work well for the 49ers provided the pass protection holds up.

Below: The mesh is created and someone should be open. If the coverage was tight, a pick would be created. Because it is loose coverage, separation is still created as the two Buc defenders don't want to hit each other. Whichever defender is playing further from his man should be the target of the pass. In this case, the CB #27 is farther since he allows the safety to cut underneath. The correct target is VD.

The play in full: Identical routes on each side of the field. Mesh, the man coverage buster.

Thought some might like to see this, here's this play in an excerpt from Jon Gruden's 1998 Raiders playbook(remember Jon Gruden started with the 49ers and ran a WCO, just like we do now). Note how he outlines the progression. There are 5 eligible receivers, however, as he notes, the QB has to pick a side to read based off his matchup and then go through his 1-3 progressions. Gore isn't able to drop out to his route because of the blitzing LB.

Jesus, CK is looking Boldin all the way as the AR1 here BUT MAN...even if this wasn't a PS design, you HAVE to have better vision here especially given that Crabtree is in the general area too! Ouch! This is another one that is so bad it's hard to determine what the play design was. Now, here's where an OC makes his money. Seeing how this play rubbed out Crabtree here, you HAVE to come back to it...this time call Crabtree as the AR1 or be looking to Crabtree as the primary receiver in the PS design. Period.

Here's this play from Gruden's playbook as well. It's a slightly different formation and the play is flipped(doesn't really matter because Gruden states in his playbook that all the plays are reversible from the diagrams), but the route combination is exactly the same. You see how Gruden has the progression laid out. It's a hi-lo read first, Crab's is supposed to the #1 read, then Boldin on the square in, then the RB out in the flat. To me, this shows Kaep's biggest strength and weakness is one and the same. He trusts his receivers to make a play, so much so, that he'll sometimes fail to read his progressions correctly.

Originally posted by thl408:
This is play #12 of the thumbnail (post #56 for reference). 2Q 2:01

49ers: Mesh concept out of 12 personnel
TB: Man coverage

Here the 49ers run the mesh concept on each side of the field.

Below: With a blitz dialed up, the Bucs call man coverage all around the field. The blue lines indicate who is covering who. In theory, this playcall will work well for the 49ers provided the pass protection holds up.

Below: The mesh is created and someone should be open. If the coverage was tight, a pick would be created. Because it is loose coverage, separation is still created as the two Buc defenders don't want to hit each other. Whichever defender is playing further from his man should be the target of the pass. In this case, the CB #27 is farther since he allows the safety to cut underneath. The correct target is VD.

The play in full: Identical routes on each side of the field. Mesh, the man coverage buster.

Thought some might like to see this, here's this play in an excerpt from Jon Gruden's 1998 Raiders playbook(remember Jon Gruden started with the 49ers and ran a WCO, just like we do now). Note how he outlines the progression. There are 5 eligible receivers, however, as he notes, the QB has to pick a side to read based off his matchup and then go through his 1-3 progressions. Gore isn't able to drop out to his route because of the blitzing LB.

Screen shots, gifs AND playbook all together in one post? You are the MAN!

This is a play Gruden himself highlighted on MNF called "the draggon." This made me happy b/c it was yet, another WCO play incorporated into the game plan AND it worked! It's a pretty simple design but effective. Again, we have at least 4 receivers (plus Gore if posssible) so to me, right away I saw it as a PS play and sure enough, it was...it was a true WCO designed passing play. However, it's hard to tell if any progressions truly existed for CK on this one b/c he instantly went to the primary read (#1 VD in the playbook) and clearly, that was the best option. So it still had that decoy-first-read (AR1) "feel" to it vs. others that appear more Spread-like where he stands back there in shot gun and just hits the most open target. But what I liked about it was that had the DB covered VD better, there were still other options; true viable receivers. This is counter to Roman's specialty of running one receiver option (all-or-nothing) out of a jumbo package on 3rd and 1.

When I get time, I will review the first half (maybe I should do the second half this game?) from my AR-perspective again and see if the trend continues to hold true: more and more PS plays being incorporated into the game plan each week since Crabtree has come back.

Jesus, CK is looking Boldin all the way as the AR1 here BUT MAN...even if this wasn't a PS design, you HAVE to have better vision here especially given that Crabtree is in the general area too! Ouch! This is another one that is so bad it's hard to determine what the play design was. Now, here's where an OC makes his money. Seeing how this play rubbed out Crabtree here, you HAVE to come back to it...this time call Crabtree as the AR1 or be looking to Crabtree as the primary receiver in the PS design. Period.

Here's this play from Gruden's playbook as well. It's a slightly different formation and the play is flipped(doesn't really matter because Gruden states in his playbook that all the plays are reversible from the diagrams), but the route combination is exactly the same. You see how Gruden has the progression laid out. It's a hi-lo read first, Crab's is supposed to the #1 read, then Boldin on the square in, then the RB out in the flat. To me, this shows Kaep's biggest strength and weakness is one and the same. He trusts his receivers to make a play, so much so, that he'll sometimes fail to read his progressions correctly.

This is great too b/c in a previous post, I had said to come back to this play later and next time (even if an AR1 by design) target Crabtree OR even VD as the #1 (or have one of them as the primary receiver in a PS play). I'm not following the highlighted playbook play here though. Is it the same play? From the looks of it from the gif, all three receivers are in bunch formation to the left (although you can do the same from the right as well).

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