Derivatives

This
section is drawn from the Canadian Annual Derivatives Conference,
presented by the Montreal Exchange in October of this year at Chateau
Montebello in Quebec. The articles featured have one thing in common:
they all touch on the rapid pace of change in the derivatives area.
From the effects of e-commerce on futures markets, to single stock
futures, to futures on sport (yes, futures on sport!), the world of
futures is an explosion of change.

Derivatives:
Futures Markets in an E-Commerce World

Can traditional futures exchanges survive in
this new environment?

by Leo Melamed

It is no secret that the combined onslaught of globalization, Over-the-Counter
(OTC) competition and technological advancement have put enormous
pressure on traditional futures exchanges. Indeed, in some quarters
there is a growing belief that the good days for traditional exchanges
are behind them. It is thus imperative to examine the state of affairs
and attempt a look ahead.

The world is in a major transformation. With growing demand for
efficiency and speed of executions, an expanding universe of electronic
communication networks (ECNs), and the advent of ever-bigger institutions
of inordinate financial strength and awesome OTC capabilities and
global reach, is there a role for traditional futures exchanges?
Can the old-fashioned resources of futures markets viably compete
in a world where the Internet has removed all borders from global
transactions?

Tough question. Surprisingly, the answer is clearly in the affirmative,
but just as clearly, it is qualified. To remain viable will require
dramatic and speedy changes in the makeup of traditional exchanges.

I make the following three assumptions: First, that hedging activities
in risk management will flow to the marketplace that is the most
liquid. It is axiomatic that market users tend to shun markets that
do not provide certain entry and exit. Second, that markets providing
the widest distribution network on a global scale together with
the most functional and efficient technology at the lowest cost
will be the most attractive. Third, that market participants will
gravitate to the marketplace that provides efficient and financially
secure clearing and settlement procedures.

While there are other requirements for success in the e-commerce
world, the foregoing three principles will dominate in determining
which exchange, which marketplace, or which ECN will win the race
in the 21st Century. Traditional futures exchanges have most of
the necessary elements in place to succeed, but they are no longer
alone. The OTC sector has come on strong, offering a wide range
of derivative products to its natural customer base. Better than
two-thirds of the $80 trillion outstanding derivative contracts
were executed in an OTC venue. Swaps are today the instrument of
choice when it comes to hedging of risk, and the world's biggest
financial firms or banks have captured the lion's share of this
expanding market. Indeed, less than a dozen world banks, mostly
U.S., hold 95% of all reported derivatives transactions. Bottom
line, with respect to liquidity, while traditional exchanges have
a running start and still have much to offer, they no longer have
a monopoly in this regard.

The second requirement--distribution and technological competence--is
not favourable to futures exchanges. Most of the traditional exchanges
are far behind modern-day technological demands. At many exchanges
there still is no viable electronic system that can compete on a
global scale whatsoever. If traditional exchanges are to stay alive
they will have to quickly meet global technological demands. That
requires huge sums of money, the kind of money that is usually available
only within very large financial entities or the public sector.
It is the very reason why nearly every traditional exchange is in
the process of or considering de-mutualizing; abandoning their membership
structure in favour of becoming a for-profit entity with an ability
to go public or offer equity to a potential partner in return for
technology.

The need for distribution is also the reason why many exchanges
have created alliances and continue to create alliances with other
exchanges, be it in equities or in derivatives. Global alliances,
bilateral or multilateral, can theoretically serve as a means of
quickly achieving a distribution network for marketing of products.

With respect to the third critical requirement--clearing and settlement
capability--there is little doubt that traditional exchanges have
the dominant advantage. To begin with, there are but a handful of
major credible derivatives clearinghouses throughout the world.
Regardless of which is the best with respect to this most critical
component, existing exchanges have a commanding lead.

From this brief overview, it should be evident that the potential
for traditional futures exchanges to succeed in the world of e-commerce,
while daunting, is quite real. But time is of the essence. The competition
is not sitting still. Traditional exchanges must act quickly to
take advantage of their inherent capabilities. They must achieve
a level of financial strength, technological capability, and market
distribution for their products as demanded by the global marketplace.
Those that don't will be history. Those that do will achieve a secure
place in the e-commerce world of the 21st Century.

Top 10 rules for a Derivatives
Program
by Claude Lamoureux 1. It must be in writing.2. It must be explainable on one page.3. Each Board member must understand the program.4. You need a very competent accounting group.5. Accounting rules and methods must be clear.6. Reporting must be simple and fast.7. A good system support is needed.8. Culture must encourage quick acknowledgment of error or
loss.9. Treat the external auditor as your partner.10. And finally, to paraphrase Buffett: The program must be
structured in such a way that a lesser mortal can run it... because
one day one will run it.

An exciting array of new derivatives products
are just on the horizon.

by Patrick Young

When it comes to products, I think we are in a really golden age
of opportunity. The number of products out there is truly fascinating.
The one that is big-time on my radar screen is individual stock
futures. In the past there has been the problem of high brokerage
costs, but the Schwabification of the world has suddenly brought
that down. When stockbrokers were in an environment where they could
happily charge $200 for an equity transaction, they saw no reason
to want to get involved in futures, which had much lower rates.
Suddenly, with $29.95 maximum commissions seeming to be the order
of the day in an online world, the prospect of dealing at futures
commission seems to be somewhat attractive.

The issue of regulation has been blighting the development of this
market. The difficulty south of this border is that the United States
has essentially a dog's dinner of a system of regulation. It is
an absolute complete and utter shambles and is going to be something
that ultimately stifles their case. America is the marketplace that
created several great opportunities for offshore (non-U.S.) markets
to prosper. If they want to hand the individual equity futures business
over to the rest of the world, then I think the rest of the world
should just pick up that challis and just run with it, because it
is certainly not a poisoned one.

Exchange traded funds
There is also going to be the whole business of exchange traded
funds (ETFs), and this links us back very neatly to the single stock
future issue. Nobody has really started talking about it yet, but
just as we will see a panoply of good, liquid single stock futures,
so you are going to see the next step in the ETF revolution. The
next step is going to be an ETF that doesn't even own any of the
underlying cash. It is going to own the futures, and use that to
replicate the index that it is based on. There are going to be all
sorts of opportunities in that area to create very significant niche
marketplace indices with all sorts of wonderful payouts.

Sports futures
One of the areas I think is going to be a fascinating area for trading
is one that the whole of North America's regulation seems to be
largely against--the trading of sport. Futures on sport is going
to be probably the biggest growth area in the financial business
in the course of maybe two to five years from now. There are already
a number of single marketplace market makers in the UK and Europe
who simply cannot keep up with demand, yet they are single broker
dealers, they make prices that you could drive a bus through and
they have all the sort of counterparty credit risks that you have
when you deal with one person. The exchange for sport is going to
be reality. It is ultimately going to destroy American gambling
with legislation, and is also going to provide the most amazing
opportunity for futures-based product through spread trading.

Patrick Young is a professional trader, the author of Capital
Market Revolution and editor of Applied Derivatives Trading,
an Internet magazine.

The
Forecasters

World outlook

"If the U.S. experiences a soft landing, Canada should do
relatively well, with growth rates perhaps exceeding that of the
U.S. If it is a hard landing in the U.S., then all bets are off.
Canada tends to underperform the U.S. in hard landing scenarios."

"Where are we going to go from here?...The current outlook
for the S&P 500 is to reach 1500 by the end of this year. It
closed Friday (October 13) at 1374, so that's a reasonably big jump,
a good last two months of the end of the year. I think we have a
reasonably good chance to do it. We'll probably know in about three
weeks. If we get through the earnings situation and then see how
excited or disappointed most of us are about the election, I think
we'll be able to see where the market is going."

Oil prices
"There is one very fundamental difference between what has
happened in the last year and a half and what happened in '73 and
'79-80. The previous two oil shocks were basically caused by OPEC
shutting off the tap. This time we see escalating crude prices with
the tap wide open. And make no mistake about it. That tap has been
wide open."