Most likely we will never really know how it does in NA/EU because they are going to roll the sub numbers in with Asia which really skews it IMO.

Well the 2,7million is for EU/US/Oceania/Korea/Taiwan. The game is not out yet in China (although i pretty sure i read its been approved). Considering China players dont buy expac...they simply pay per hour, so we get a good idea what the actual number of WoW players is. With the holidays nopt too far away and some having bought gw2 i think we might expect sales to read 3.5ish million before Dec. 31. But overall we can estimate the number of US players is probably 1 to 1.5 million (US servers are for Oceania too).

Most likely we will never really know how it does in NA/EU because they are going to roll the sub numbers in with Asia which really skews it IMO. The asian sub numbers are really cooked because of the system S. Korean and China uses. I wouldn't be surprised if the asian sub numbers were actually 3/4 of what they report.

Activision/Blizzard is a publicly held company. They aren't 'cooking' the numbers. That would leave them open for massive lawsuits. The way they are counting subscriptions is the way they have been counting them for years. We know that in Asia players don't buy the expansions and that they play the game for an hourly fee in Internet Cafe's. The general understanding has been that at its peak the game had 4 or 5 million subscribers in non-Asian countries. Those non-Asians buy the expansions and pay a fixed monthly fee of around $15. We don't know how much on average an Asian player spends monthly. It could be more that the equivalent of $15. it could be less. Clearly, Blizzard is very interested in the Chinese market which suggests that they feel there's plenty of money to be made there. The fact is that WOW is and continues to be the most successful MMORPG ever.

---------- Post added 2012-10-05 at 10:39 PM ----------

Originally Posted by Zaqwert

The 10 million subscribers thing, is for lack of a better word, bullshit.

6-7 million of their "subscribers" don't pay the box cost and don't pay for the expansions and generate about 10% of WoW's revenue.

You can't basically GIVE your game to a few million people and then try to brag about your number of subscribers.

Seems to me it takes about 10 Chinese subscribers to equal about 1 actual paying subscriber.

So in truth WoW has about 4 million real subscribers (which is still impressive) and another 6 million people who basically play the game for a few pennies.

What's your source for the Asian market only generating 10% of WOW revenue? I've never seen that.

Most likely we will never really know how it does in NA/EU because they are going to roll the sub numbers in with Asia which really skews it IMO. The asian sub numbers are really cooked because of the system S. Korean and China uses. I wouldn't be surprised if the asian sub numbers were actually 3/4 of what they report.

I think that's all exactly right. The only real point I was trying to make is that expecting numbers like Cataclysm had on its first day when you're down 25% to start with is silly. As it is we don't know how much of that 2.7 was counted as first day as it is. It's an interesting conversation and I like speculating about things as much as anyone but it's good to keep in mind that it's mostly that and despite anything we say, the game goes on.

The 10 million subscribers thing, is for lack of a better word, bullshit.

6-7 million of their "subscribers" don't pay the box cost and don't pay for the expansions and generate about 10% of WoW's revenue.

You can't basically GIVE your game to a few million people and then try to brag about your number of subscribers.

Seems to me it takes about 10 Chinese subscribers to equal about 1 actual paying subscriber.

So in truth WoW has about 4 million real subscribers (which is still impressive) and another 6 million people who basically play the game for a few pennies.

You should really read the threads before spouting off your mouth.

Less than 50% of the subscribers are in APAC. That's the Asian-Pacific region which includes China. The majority of sub losses were in APAC. This was stated in the shareholders meeting. Since there's no MOP in China there's no reason to resubscribe right now.

So this means the subscription gains are in the US and Europe. It doesn't take a genius to figure this out. If APAC is less than 50% (It was 5 million when Wow was at 12 million) then we easily have 6 or 7 million full subs paying right now.

Stellan: We do know that an APAC player pays roughly $6 a month because it's about a nickel per hour. Some of those countries have limits on internet cafe time per month as well. They don't have the luxury of playing from home like we do.

Most likely we will never really know how it does in NA/EU because they are going to roll the sub numbers in with Asia which really skews it IMO. The asian sub numbers are really cooked because of the system S. Korean and China uses. I wouldn't be surprised if the asian sub numbers were actually 3/4 of what they report.

then in 1 single week every single active subscriber has bought MoP. Right.

So this means the subscription gains are in the US and Europe. It doesn't take a genius to figure this out. If APAC is less than 50% (It was 5 million when Wow was at 12 million) then we easily have 6 or 7 million full subs paying right now.

so there are 6-7 million people paying full subs. people that are so devoted to WoW that they have continued to pay subscriptions all through Cata. and out of these 6-7 million devoted customers, only 2.7 million actually wanted to play the new expansion the week that it dropped. doesnt that sound a bit unlikely to you?

trying to work out what proportion of the subs are western without sufficient data is extremely difficult. if there werent extra paid for features we could have a try at it, but the various exchange rates would make it tough, since it could only be based on the reported subscriber numbers and the income that Blizzard reports.

bear in mind that a subscriber in their quarterly reports could be someone that was only subscribed for a single day that quarter, either at the start or the end. and they may not have paid any subscription during that reporting period (if they had cancelled and the subscription was about to drop off).

you also need to bear in mind that a large number of "chinese" players actually use the korean version of the game, which released on the 27 September. so some of the rise could be down to chinese players rejoining the game (in fact i would be amazed if it wasnt).

TLDR: you are making a lot of assumptions, based on data that you cannot possibly have. and using flawed logic. think before you start questioning other peoples analysis of the situation.

When challenging a Kzin, a simple scream of rage is sufficient. You scream and you leap.

Over the last 10 years, Blizzard has taken over $10bn from MMO players. Take a look around your game...do you see $10bn worth of content available to you? Do you see even a tiny fraction of that in relevant content? Now ask me again why I dislike what Blizzard has done to the MMO industry.

So basically they say that 2.7 mil people play WoW now + the rest up to 10 mil which is made by non paying asians, where they count 1 sub if 1 dude logged in the game at an internet cafe once.

I'm sorry for the fanboys, but by the next expansion WoW will be no2. That's ok, game is to old and it already delivered wonders.

Especially since 1.2 mil subs forced by the anual pass will not renew in prop of 90%+. Check the tears in May 2013 By than WoW will be no2 and if an unnamed gaming company will add some stuff to their latest game WoW will no2 by a large margin.

What's your source for the Asian market only generating 10% of WOW revenue? I've never seen that.

The last earnings call and shareholders meeting.

I don't even believe it was 10% ... more in line of 5-6%. So yeah... "10 million subscribers" really is bullshit. They only have 4 million in EU + North America at best. Counting the asian subscribers is nothing but a publicity trick without relevance to the healthiness of the game or the business. (Almost every WMMORPG would have close to 10 million subscribers if (re)leased to Asia, but most don't do it because it has no value or purpose).

I don't even believe it was 10% ... more in line of 5-6%. So yeah... "10 million subscribers" really is bullshit. They only have 4 million in EU + North America at best. Counting the asian subscribers is nothing but a publicity trick without relevance to the healthiness of the game or the business. (Almost every WMMORPG would have close to 10 million subscribers if (re)leased to Asia, but most don't do it because it has no value or purpose).

I agree. They have a handful of full servers and a shit ton of dead ones. There's no way they have 10 million subscribers.

wow is losing subs "see all us players in na and eu are fed up with this game and wow is going to die here comes the reign of rift/starwars/gw2/super awesome everquest party time"

wow gained a million subs "PFFT 99% OF SUBS ARE FROM CHINA MAN"

"I was a normal baby for 30 seconds, then ninjas stole my mamma" - Deadpool
"so what do we do?" "well jack, you stand there and say 'gee rocket raccoon I'm so glad you brought that Unfeasibly large cannon with you..' and i go like this BRAKKA BRAKKA BRAKKA" - Rocket Raccoon

Wow's numbers are irrelevant. If you enjoy the game, keep playing. If you stopped, enjoy something else. That being said, I think I may renew my SWTOR sub for a month, kinda nostalgic for the good old days of paying for long load screens.

Not to hate on anything here - as I couldn't give a damn what anyone plays, but it certainly is odd that there are 2.7million copies sold and this may go to 4.5 million in a year (judging by the most popular expansion).

I honestly can't accept that 1/2 to 2/3 the WoW subscriber population will pay subs without upgrading. Even taking the asian subs into account, the numbers just don't add up. Either the Asian subs are much higher or something is scewed. Even if you take 1/2 the 10 million subs as asian, that still leaves 2.3 million people subscribing to the Cata (or lower) version.

Not to hate on anything here - as I couldn't give a damn what anyone plays, but it certainly is odd that there are 2.7million copies sold and this may go to 4.5 million in a year (judging by the most popular expansion).

I honestly can't accept that 1/2 to 2/3 the WoW subscriber population will pay subs without upgrading. Even taking the asian subs into account, the numbers just don't add up. Either the Asian subs are much higher or something is scewed. Even if you take 1/2 the 10 million subs as asian, that still leaves 2.3 million people subscribing to the Cata (or lower) version.

well i know of plenty of people who only have the basic version of the game and people whos kids or friends are waiting till around christmas to buy mists.

they may not be the majority but theres definitely a good portion of people who only have basic wow or just cata

"I was a normal baby for 30 seconds, then ninjas stole my mamma" - Deadpool
"so what do we do?" "well jack, you stand there and say 'gee rocket raccoon I'm so glad you brought that Unfeasibly large cannon with you..' and i go like this BRAKKA BRAKKA BRAKKA" - Rocket Raccoon

I don't even believe it was 10% ... more in line of 5-6%. So yeah... "10 million subscribers" really is bullshit. They only have 4 million in EU + North America at best. Counting the asian subscribers is nothing but a publicity trick without relevance to the healthiness of the game or the business. (Almost every WMMORPG would have close to 10 million subscribers if (re)leased to Asia, but most don't do it because it has no value or purpose).

Less than 50% of the subscribers are in APAC. That's the Asian-Pacific region which includes China. The majority of sub losses were in APAC. This was stated in the shareholders meeting. Since there's no MOP in China there's no reason to resubscribe right now.

So this means the subscription gains are in the US and Europe. It doesn't take a genius to figure this out. If APAC is less than 50% (It was 5 million when Wow was at 12 million) then we easily have 6 or 7 million full subs paying right now.

Stellan: We do know that an APAC player pays roughly $6 a month because it's about a nickel per hour. Some of those countries have limits on internet cafe time per month as well. They don't have the luxury of playing from home like we do.

Less than 50% of the subscribers are in APAC. That's the Asian-Pacific region which includes China. The majority of sub losses were in APAC. This was stated in the shareholders meeting. Since there's no MOP in China there's no reason to resubscribe right now.

So this means the subscription gains are in the US and Europe. It doesn't take a genius to figure this out. If APAC is less than 50% (It was 5 million when Wow was at 12 million) then we easily have 6 or 7 million full subs paying right now.

actually your incorrect on MoP not being in china. It released in China on Oct 2. 7 days after MoP launched on Sept 25th. Now i dont know about you but if i had not played a game in a few months and it was getting a major update b4 the next expansion i would resub a week or so b4 the expansion launched to figure out all the changes and then play the expansion the following week.

So (tinfoil hat time) Blizz knows that sub numbers are down and the majority of those subs were from asia and all they needed them to do was log in for 1 sec in b4 MoP launched or in that week between the 25th and the 2nd, and boom 900k sub gain. Now sure those arnt all from asia but i bet the majority are. MoP prolly did sell 2.6-2.7 mil the first day, but i bet sub numbers were still less than 10 mil until the Asian market resubbed to push it back to 10.