A New Warplane's Murky Horizon

By ANDREW POLLACK,

Published: January 13, 1995

NAGOYA, Japan, Jan. 12—
While Shinto priests chanted and waved sacred branches, Japan introduced the prototype of its FSX fighter today, the first major weapon jointly developed with the United States.

Once the focus of controversy with Washington over Japan's growing industrial competitiveness, the FSX may still face a troubled future. With the cold war over and Japan's military procurement budget tighter, questions are being raised about whether the FSX should move from prototype to production.

Even if production goes ahead, as appears likely, Japan is said to be considering only 70 to 130 aircraft, so few that some analysts say the price of each plane could surpass $100 million. That is four times the price of the F-16, the fighter developed by the General Dynamics Corporation upon which the FSX is based.

Negotiations between the United States and Japan could take more than a year to determine the number of planes that should be built and the work that should go to American companies. That could lead to a new flare-up in tensions.

In the late 1980's the proposed fighter prompted disputes between the United States and Japan. Critics in Congress and elsewhere said the Pentagon was giving Japan technology to develop its own aircraft industry, which would eventually do to Boeing and Lockheed what Japan's auto industry did to General Motors and Chrysler.

Still, the companies involved in the project on both sides of the Pacific are hoping that the Japanese Government will produce as many planes as possible.

"In order to keep the Japanese aviation industry alive, we have to go into production," said Kazuo Shibuya, senior director for Japan at the aircraft engine division of the General Electric Company, which is supplying the engines for the prototypes.

The prime Japanese contractor on the FSX is Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, which built the Zero fighter used in World War II. The 4,500 employees in its aircraft factory are already short of work, because the Japanese Government has cut back on aircraft production. The FSX is their biggest hope to keep the factory operating.

The project could also provide several billion dollars of business for beleaguered American military contractors, which are expected to get 40 percent of the production work. The biggest beneficiary will probably be the Lockheed Corporation, which two years ago bought the General Dynamics division that makes the F-16.

Vernon A. Lee, the FSX program manager for Lockheed, said the company expected $2 billion in business from the production phase, on top of the $900 million it would receive from the development phase.

The initial controversy about technology has not died entirely. The two Governments are arguing about whether eight particular Japanese technologies used in the FSX should be made available to the United States.

The Pentagon says the technologies are Japanese improvements on American technology and should flow back to the United States free under the FSX development agreement. Japan says the technologies are uniquely Japanese.

Officials on both sides declined to identify the technologies, but one is believed to be a heads-up display, in which cockpit information is projected so a pilot can see data while looking through the windshield of a plane.

Japan has lagged behind the United States in aerospace, partly because of the pacifist constitution adopted after Japan's defeat in World War II. Most of its planes use technology licensed from the United States. Japanese companies have also become large suppliers of parts to the Boeing Company and others.

"Almost all the techniques come from Boeing or Douglas or Lockheed," said Kentaro Aikawa, president of Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, which is Japan's largest military contractor. "We are very thankful to the United States."

Japan wants to move toward designing and developing its own aircraft, with military programs playing a key role. The Japan Defense Agency was moving in the mid-1980's to develop an all-Japanese fighter to replace the poorly regarded F-1, another plane developed by the Japanese.

Some people in Washington argued that Japan, which depends on the United States for its defense, should buy American fighters. That would be far faster and cheaper, they say, and would alleviate the huge American trade deficit with Japan.

In 1989 the FSX program compromised between those two views. Japan would build its new fighter based on the F-16, with American companies doing 40 percent of the development work. But instead of providing technology to Japan, as had always been done, the United States would be entitled to get some technology back. The Defense Department is now trying to extend that approach with Japan to other programs.

The value of that Japanese technology has been a matter of debate. Dr. Lee of Lockheed said the company was happy with the technique for making "co-cured" composite wings that it learned from Mitsubishi and is used for the first time in the FSX.

Composites are lighter than metals, and the co-curing process, in which many parts that are cured together come out as a single piece, could lead to lower manufacturing costs, he said. Other experts have said that American composite technology for aircraft is already ahead of Japan's.

Many American companies have also looked at Japan's phased array radar. An American military official said the phased array radar on the F-22 fighter being developed in the United States was more advanced over all than the Japanese product. But some of its Japanese components are very sophisticated and might be of interest to American companies.

Many American experts appear to agree that the United States remains significantly ahead in aircraft technology and that Japan has learned more from the United States than the United States has learned from Japan.

Because of the various disputes between the United States and Japan and delays in software development, the development of the FSX is about two years behind schedule and will continue until 1998, a spokesman for the Defense Agency said. He added that 327.4 billion yen, or about $3.27 billion, had been spent so far, or twice the amount contemplated.

Photo: Shinto priests performed an elaborate purification rite yesterday for the safety of a prototype of Japan's new FSX fighter. The cost of each plane, built with help from American companies, could exceed $100 million. (Agence France-Presse)