Monday, January 25, 2010

Mid-January 2010 SST Anomaly Update

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Weekly NINO3.4 SST anomalies for the week centered on January 20, 2010 show a drop of 0.48 deg C over the past four weeks. Presently they’re at 1.45 deg C. It appears the 2009/10 El Nino has peaked. Assuming the 2009/10 El Nino won’t become a multiyear El Nino, the questions now: how quickly will NINO3.4 SST anomalies drop and how severe will the La Nina be?http://i49.tinypic.com/dfdpjb.png
NINO3.4 SST Anomalies

Weekly Global SST anomalies are still elevated, but they are 0.07 deg C below the most recent peak that occurred four weeks ago. Will they continue to drop or will there be a lagged rise? Time will tell.http://i47.tinypic.com/zyejr.png
Global SST Anomalies

6 comments:

Anonymous 4:59: Yes. According to Ashok et al (2007) paper “El Nino Modoki and its Possible Teleconnection”...https://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/publications/modoki-ashok.pdf...the 1991/92 was an El Nino Modoki event. So is the 2009/10 event. And they both appear to have peaked near to the same temperature.

Hi Bob,I enjoy these updates (but not the silly interannual variability disproves AGW type posts). I wouldn't be so sure El Nino has peaked. I think we may see a little late winter surprise! In the last few days equatorial Pacific trade winds have weakened in association with the eastward moving MJO phase. The active MJO phase is now centered over the central Pacific where the associated low-level wind anomalies tend to reinforce El Nino. All the global models forecast the MJO signal to become stationary in this location (which hasn't really happened in this El Nino yet). The associated low-level winds in the western Pacific are already beginning to build up a new Kelvin wave (check out the ECMWF ocean analyses) that will move eastward and potentially reinvigorate El Nino. Time will tell, but based on recent trends I think it is too early to be certain we won't see a secondary late season El Nino peak. Thus, I'll be checking your SST updates!

Bob, it would appear from the graphs that the trough to peak delta in 2008- 2010 is pretty close to that of 1996-1998 (absolute SST's are pretty close too). You had previously done some interesting work on the global temperature step changes that accompany larger el nino events. Would you be willing to predict another step change arising from the current event?

hswiseman: You asked, "Would you be willing to predict another step change arising from the current event?" I don't make predictions, but I have placed a graph of the East Indian and West Pacific SST anomalies on the monthly SST updates in anticipation of such a rise.

Link to graph:http://i49.tinypic.com/25z5y55.png

And here's a link to the most recent monthly update:http://bobtisdale.blogspot.com/2010/01/december-2009-sst-anomaly-update.html

Comment Policy, SST Posts, and Notes

Comments that are political in nature or that have nothing to do with the post will be deleted.####The Smith and Reynolds SST Posts DOES NOT LIST ALL SST POSTS. I stopped using ERSST.v2 data for SST when NOAA deleted it from NOMADS early in 2009.

Please use the search feature in the upper left-hand corner of the page for posts on specific subjects.####NOTE: I’ve discovered that some of the links to older posts provide blank pages. While it’s possible to access that post by scrolling through the history, that’s time consuming. There’s a quick fix for the problem, so if you run into an absent post, please advise me. Thanks.####If you use the graphs, please cite or link to the address of the blog post or this website.