Federal elections for the Parliament of Australia were
held on Saturday 24 November 2007 after a 6-week campaign, in which
13.6 million Australians were enrolled to vote.[1] All 150
seats in the House of
Representatives and 40 of the seats in the 76-member Senate were
contested in the election.

At 8.00pm, the first personality to call the election was former
Labor leader Bob Hawke
on Sky News.[5] At
10.29pm AEST, approximately two hours after
the last polls in Western Australia closed, Liberal
deputy leader Peter Costello conceded that the Coalition had lost government. At
10.36pm, John Howard
delivered a speech at the Sofitel Wentworth Hotel in Sydney to concede
defeat. He accepted full responsibility for the Coalition's defeat.
At 11.05pm, Kevin Rudd
delivered his victory speech.

Labor won 83 of the 150 seats in the incoming House of
Representatives.[2][6] This
represented a 23-seat swing to Labor.[7] The
Liberals won 55 while the Nationals won 10, with two seats retained
by Independents. Labor finished with a 52.70 per cent two-party-preferred figure, a 5.44 per cent
swing from 2004. On preferences, 79.7 per cent of Green votes
flowed to Labor, 60.3 per cent of Family First votes flowed to the
Coalition, with 62.5 per cent of Democrat votes flowing to
Labor.[8]
Considering two-party estimates going back to the 1949 election, the
swing to Labor in 2007 is the third largest two-party-preferred
swing, behind Malcolm Fraser and the Coalition in 1975 on 7.4 per cent,
and Gough
Whitlam and Labor in 1969 on 7.1 per cent.
The swing is the largest since 1983, when full
preference counting was introduced to create an exact two-party
figure, and the largest swing to occur in the absence of a
recession, political or military crisis.[9]

Western Australia went against the national trend, with the
Liberals suffering only a 2.14 per cent swing against them — lower
than all except Tasmania and the ACT — but yet gaining one net
seat. The weaker Labor performance was attributed to the strong
economy and voters' unwillingness to do anything which might risk
their present prosperity — a sentiment played to by Liberal
campaigning strategies — and also the behaviour of union officials
Kevin Reynolds and Joe
McDonald who had made headlines during the campaign.[10]

Labor and the Coalition won 18 seats each in the half-Senate
election. The Greens won three seats, with Independent Nick Xenophon being
elected on primary votes alone. This took the 76-member Senate
total to 37 Coalition, 32 Labor, 5 Green, 1 Family First, and 1
Independent. With a majority being 39 senators, when the new Senate
met after 1 July 2008, the balance of power was
shared between Xenophon, Family First's Steve Fielding and the five Greens.
Xenophon, although reported as left-of-centre,[14]
indicated plans to work closely with the renegade National, Senator
Barnaby
Joyce.[15] If
sufficient Coalition senators vote for government legislation,
support from the crossbench will not be required.

Compared to the previous Senate, the Greens gained one (losing
Kerry Nettle in
NSW but gaining Sarah Hanson-Young in SA and Scott Ludlam in WA),
a new Independent was elected (Xenophon), and Labor gained four
seats. The Coalition lost two, and the Democrats lost all four of
their seats.

After preferences were distributed, the Coalition had 41.5 per
cent to Labor's 40.6 per cent, with the Greens on 11.7 per cent,
while the fourth parties, mostly from the right, had 6.2 per
cent.[16]

The informal rate of 2.55 per cent ties with the 1993 election as the
lowest informal rate in the Senate since federation. The
introduction of the group voting ticket at the 1984 election saw the
number of informal votes drop dramatically.

Defeat of the Prime
Minister

Prime Minister John Howard lost his own seat of Bennelong to Labor candidate and
former journalist Maxine McKew, becoming only the second
sitting prime minister, and the third party leader, since
Federation to be defeated in his own electorate. (Prime Minister Stanley Bruce and
National Party leader Charles Blunt lost their seats in 1929
and 1990 respectively). Howard had held the seat since 1974, and it
had been in Liberal hands ever since its creation in 1949.

Late on election night, when conceding Labor had won government,
Howard also acknowledged the likelihood he had lost Bennelong to
McKew, though he and McKew agreed the margin was "very tight".[17] He
had been ahead by thin margins for most of the night, never leading
by more than 0.2 percentage points.[18]
Howard had been 206 votes ahead of McKew on the first count, and
finished 2.8 percentage points behind McKew on the estimated
two-party vote.[19
] McKew declined to claim victory at first, saying
that the seat was on "a knife edge,"[20
] while the Australian Broadcasting
Corporation listed Bennelong as a Labor gain on election night,
and ABC election analyst Antony Green said there was "no doubt"
McKew had won.[21]

On 29 November, Rudd named McKew as a parliamentary secretary (assistant
minister) to be appointed on 3 December,[22] and
on 1 December, McKew claimed victory.[23]
Although counting was incomplete at the time, with several postal
and absentee ballots outstanding, it was expected that Howard would
not win enough of the votes to retain his seat.[24] McKew
finished with a primary vote of 45.33 per cent, and a two party preferred figure of 51.40 per
cent, a 5.53 per cent swing from 2004, and that Howard lost on the
14th count due to a large flow of Green preferences to McKew. This
swing is within the current boundaries; Bennelong was redistributed
after the 2004 election.[25]

The Labor caucus met on Thursday 29 November 2007 to confirm the
First
Rudd Ministry, which was sworn in on 3 December.[26] In a
departure from Labor tradition, the ministry was selected by Kevin
Rudd as the prime minister, rather than by Caucus.[27]

Given John Howard's personal defeat, the Liberal Party began the
process of choosing a new leader. The morning after the election,
Peter
Costello, the Deputy Leader of the Liberal Party, and long
regarded as Howard's natural successor, stated that he would not
run for Liberal leadership.[28] The
day before the ballot, former Health Minister Tony Abbott withdrew
from the leadership after initially indicating he would stand.[29] The
leadership ballot was held on Thursday 29 November. The previous
Defence Minister Brendan Nelson and former Environmental
Minister Malcolm Turnbull both stood for the
leadership.[30]
Former Education Minister Julie Bishop contested the deputy
leadership position,[31] as
did Andrew Robb and
Christopher
Pyne.

Brendan Nelson was elected leader by 45 votes to 42, and Julie
Bishop was elected deputy leader.[32] A
Newspoll survey taken after the Liberal leadership change revealed
a preferred-prime-minister rating of Rudd 61 per cent to Nelson 14
per cent, with Turnbull twice as popular as Nelson.[33]
Newspoll's subsequent polling saw new Newspoll records set, at 70
per cent for the best rating for preferred prime minister, to 9 per
cent for the worst rating for preferred prime minister, with the
next poll results revealing another record of 73 to 7 per cent. A
new two party preferred record was also set, at
63 to 37 per cent Labor's way.

Post-election, ALP secretary Tim Gartrell commented on pre-election
campaign billboard ads featuring a picture of John Howard stating
"Working families in Australia have never been better off", which
looked like Liberal Party advertisements, were actually paid for by
the Labor Party.[34][35]
Liberal leader Brendan Nelson declared that the Liberal Party had
listened and learned from the Australian public and declared WorkChoices "dead".[36]

Seats
changing hands

The following table indicates seats that changed hands from one
party to another at this election.[39] It
compares the election results with the previous margins, taking
into account the redistribution in New South Wales and Queensland.
As a result, it includes the newly created electorate of Flynn, and
the existing Parramatta, which was retained
by Labor despite becoming a notional Liberal seat due to boundary
changes. The table does not include Gwydir, which was abolished in the
redistribution; Macquarie, which was reclassified
from safe Liberal to marginal Labor and was subsequently won by
Labor; or Calare, the seat of Independent MP
Peter Andren,
which was reclassified as a National seat by the redistribution and
was won by the National Party.

Under the provisions of the Constitution, the current
House of Representatives may continue for a maximum of three years
from the first meeting of the House after the previous federal
election. The first meeting of the 41st Parliament after the 2004 election was on
16 November 2004, hence the parliament would have expired on 15
November 2007 had it not been dissolved earlier. There must be a
minimum of 33 days and a maximum of 68 days between the dissolution
of the House of Representatives and the day of the election.[48] Prime
Minister Howard opted for a 39-day campaign.

The prime minister of the day chooses the election date and
requests the governor-general to
dissolve the House and issue the writs for the election. On
14 October, John Howard gained the agreement of the
governor-general, Major-General Michael Jeffery, to dissolve the House
of Representatives and hold a general election for the House and
half the Senate on 24 November 2007.[49]

During the last term of parliament before the 2007 election, the
deadline for new voter enrolment was brought forward from 7 working
days after the issue of the writ to the same day. When the election
was announced, the writ was not issued the next day, but on the
following Wednesday. This kept the roll open for three days, during
which 77,000 enrolment additions were processed.[50]

Election
campaign

Week 1

On 14 October, Howard announced a 24 November election. The
Coalition had been trailing Labor in the polls since 2006, and most
pundits predicted that Howard would not be reelected. ABC Online
election analyst Antony Green noted the Coalition's numbers
were similar to what Labor had polled before losing power in
1996.

His theme concentrated on leadership, stating that the nation
"does not need new leadership, it does not need old leadership.
It needs the right leadership" He said his government would
strive to achieve full employment, which he argued was less likely
under Kevin Rudd.[51] In
response, Rudd also concentrated on leadership, outlining his case
for "new leadership”. He argued that the government had 'lost
touch' with the electorate, and that his the Labor Party was best
suited to deal with challenges that lie ahead.

A Galaxy poll showed a Labor 53-47 per cent Coalition
two-party-preferred result, with a 2 per cent gap on primaries,[52] and
ACNielsen polling reported a 2 per cent swing to the Coalition,
reducing Labor's lead to 54-46. Rudd dropped 5 per cent as
preferred prime minister. A Newspoll sampling 1,700 voters taken
over the weekend prior to the leaders' debate reported a swing to
Labor, increasing their two-party-preferred lead to 58 per cent, a
rise of 2 per cent. Labor's primary vote increased 3 per cent to 51
per cent, and the Liberals decreased by 2 per cent to 34 per cent.
Rudd extended his lead by 2 per cent, to 50 per cent, with Howard
down by 2 per cent, to 37 per cent.[53]

On the first full day of the campaign, Howard and Costello
announced a 'major restructuring of the income tax system' with tax
cuts worth $35 billion over three years and a tax cut "goal" for
the next five years.[54] A few
days later, Rudd released his policy which supported the reform
measures, however offered education and health tax rebates instead
of immediate cuts to the top rate as proposed by the Liberal Party,
with a slower progression for the top rate.[55]

The Liberals slogan, "go for growth" was launched after
announcing the largest tax cut in Australian history.[56][57] Media
and political commentators questioned the suitability of the slogan
in the context of rising inflation and interest rates.[58]

During the latter part of the week union influence over the ALP
was questioned after the launch of the Liberal party's first
campaign ads. Labor responded with commercials attacking the
Liberals' campaign as 'smears', which was disputed by John Howard.
One of the Liberal Party election commercials was corrected after
it incorrectly said Wayne
Swan and Craig
Emerson had previously been union officials.[59]

Leaders'
debate

A debate between the Leader of the Opposition and the Prime
Minister, under the moderation of the National Press Club,
was shown live on ABC TV, the Nine Network, and Sky News
Australia at 7.30 p.m. on 21 October. Rudd had called for a
minimum of three debates between himself and Howard, while Howard,
who had been rated poorly by studio audiences at past leadership
debates, pressed for a single debate. A total of 2.4 million
Australians watched the event, with Nine averaging 1.42 million,
the ABC averaging 907,000, and Sky News averaging 62,000. The last
election debate in 2004 was watched by 1.77 million on Nine and the
ABC, while in 2001, average audiences on Nine, Seven and the ABC
totalled 2.44 million.[60][61]David Speers, Sky
News's political editor, moderated the debate which was held in the
Great
Hall of Parliament House. The debate
audience was 400, with the Coalition and Labor each selecting
200.

Kevin Rudd argued that the Liberal Party was being influenced by
the H. R. Nicholls Society to make
further reforms to industrial relations, citing Nick Minchin's speech
at the Society's 2008 conference where he told the audience that
the Coalition "knew its reform to WorkChoices were not popular but the
process of change must continue",[62] and
that "there is still a long way to go... awards, the IR commission,
all the rest of it..."[63] In
response to the Liberal Party message that 70 per cent of Labor's
front bench was made up of former union officials, Rudd said 70 per
cent of Liberal Party ministers were either lawyers or former
Liberal Party staffers.[64] On
the same day, Peter Costello admitted when questioned
that the 70 per cent figure was in reference to union members
rather than union officials.[65][66]

Rudd said that Howard had "no plan for the future" on tackling
climate change. Howard said that a Coalition government would
establish a climate change fund after 2011, which would be financed
by carbon offsets.[67]

The Nine Network, which broadcast the debate as an extended
edition of 60 Minutes,
used the 'the
Worm' in its broadcast despite prior objections from the
Liberal Party and action from the National Press Club to cease its
video feed. As a result, the Nine Network's feed was cut part way
into the broadcast, which Nine then replaced with Sky News's
coverage.[68] The
Nine television network's live audience, via the Worm's average,
scored the debate 65 to 29 in Rudd's favour,[69] with
6 per cent remaining undecided. Both sides, however, claimed
victory.[70] Nine
had a separate group of 80 it said were 'swinging' voters (chosen
by McNair Research) in its studio to control 'the Worm'. Steps were
taken to ensure equal numbers so as not to taint the Worm. At one
point, Peter
Costello was asked to cease interjecting.[71]

Week 2

Figures released on the Tuesday, showed a stronger than expected
underlying rate of inflation of 3 per cent.[72
] Treasurer Peter Costello argued against an
increase in interest rates, saying the Reserve Bank should
concentrate on the headline consumer price index (CPI)
inflation rate which rose of 1.9 per cent for the period.[73
]

Controversy arose over the Coalition's climate change policy,
with The Financial Review
citing "government sources" who claimed Turnbull told Cabinet six
weeks ago it should sign the Kyoto Protocol. Neither Howard nor
Turnbull denied the story. The story said that "internal critics"
are claiming Turnbull is "selfishly positioning himself for a
Coalition defeat" and a "possible post-poll leadership battle with
Treasurer Peter Costello". The story led to claims of major splits
in Cabinet.[74
]

Labor also suffered from mixed messages. Kevin Rudd was
compelled to clarify Labor policy on climate change after an
interview in which Peter Garrett suggested Labor would sign
up to the post-Kyoto agreement at 2012 even if carbon-emitting
developing countries did not. Rudd's comments, which he described
as having "always been [Labor's] position", saw Labor's policy move
closer to Liberal policy, insofar as Labor would ratify the
agreement only after persuading all major carbon emitters,
developing and developed, to ratify.[75
][76][77
] Rudd also committed Labor to a target of a 20
per cent reduction in emissions by 2020, a 5 per cent increase on
the Liberal target, assisted by the use of renewable
energy, but without the use of clean coal, arguing that it would ultimately
be a benefit, not a detriment to the economy.

Week 3

John Howard said the Coalition would not match the Labor's
promise of 20 per cent renewable energy target. Howard claimed
Labor's policy "imposes too many additional costs to industry". Peter Garrett
replied that lack of government action has cost jobs.[78
] It was also reported that a recommendation by
Howard's Environment Minister in 2005 for higher renewable energy
targets, on the basis that 15 per cent was insufficient, was
rejected at the time, which Howard declined to confirm or deny.[79
]

The Coalition announced a promise to open 50 new emergency
medical centres around Australia if re-elected. Adding to the
campaign trend of both major parties criticising their opponent for
plagiarism and "me-tooism", Labor responded that the government had
copied its policy.[80
]

Peter Garrett was criticised by the Coalition when radio
announcer Steve Price revealed Garrett
had said to TV presenter Richard Wilkins, that
"…once we get in we'll just change it all" in reference to copying
Coalition policies. Garrett said the comment was made during a
"short, jocular and casual" conversation and Wilkins supported
Garrett's response, saying that it was a "light-hearted throwaway
line".[81
]

Tim Costello,
director of World
Vision Australia and Peter Costello's brother, criticised
Australia's ranking of 19th out of 22 OECD
countries for provision of overseas aid, and for government
unwillingness to increase its policy of 0.35 per cent of national
GDP to match Labor's commitment of 0.5 per cent.[82
] Howard said his party planned to lift the rate
to 3.5 per cent.[83]

Commentators pronounced Peter Costello and Wayne Swan's debate on 30 October as ending
in a draw. Costello focused mainly on the government's past record,
advocating the need for Australia to build into the future, while
Swan said Labor were interested in "investing in people".[84]
Howard said he believed Costello "creamed" his opponent, while Rudd
said Swan did a "fantastic job".[85]

Liberal Tony
Abbott and Labor's Nicola Roxon debated health at the
National Press Club on ABC television. Abbott's character and
ministerial capacity were questioned by Roxon for his comments
about terminally ill asbestos campaigner Bernie Banton and for arriving 35 minutes
late to debate. At the end of the debate, Roxon suggested to Abbott
that he "could have arrived on time" if he had "really wanted to",
to which Abbott replied "bullshit".[86][87][88][89
] Former Liberal campaign strategist Sue Cato said
"you just don't run late for things like that".[90]
Abbott apologised to Mr Banton but not to Ms Roxon.[91
]

Week 4

The Reserve Bank of Australia
adjusted interest rates upwards by another 0.25 per cent, the sixth
rise since the last election, to a 10-year high of 6.75 per cent,
and the first time the Bank had been changed rates during an
election campaign.[93][94] The
Coalition said that only the current government had the proper
experienced team to manage the economy in future, less prosperous
years.[95
] Costello argued that the inflationary reasons
for the rate rise were "outside the control of a Government".[96
] In response, Labor accused the Coalition of
having "hauled up the white flag in the fight against inflation",
saying that they had backflipped from their past statements that
they could keep interest rates low.[97
] Howard stated that he was sorry for the negative
consequences for and burden on Australian borrowers,[98] but
subsequently denied that this constituted an apology for the rate
rise itself.[99]

On 7 November, Workplace Relations Minister Joe Hockey and Labor's Julia Gillard
debated industrial relations including WorkChoices at the National Press Club in
Canberra. Hockey argued that Labor's policy to drop Workchoices was
Australia's biggest threat to inflation.[100] On 8
November, Environment Minister Malcolm Turnbull and opposition
spokesman Peter
Garrett debated environment issues at the National Press Club
in Canberra. Garrett criticised the government's record on climate
change to which Turnbull responded that Garrett's current claims
betray his previous career as a political activist.[101]

Week 5

Both major parties had their official campaign launches in Brisbane, Queensland; the Liberal Party on
Monday 12 November[102] and
Labor on Wednesday 14 November.[103] At
their launch, the Coalition pledged a rebate for education costs,
including private school fees, of all Australian children,
totalling $9.4 billion. Under the plan, primary school students
would have be eligible for $400 whilst secondary school students
would have been eligible for $800. Tax cuts worth $1.6 billion over
four years were proposed to encourage people to save for first
homes, and extra funding of $652 million for child care and $158
million to support carers was promised.[104]

The Labor Party promised to spend only a quarter of the $9.4
billion promised by the Coalition, saying it would have a smaller
impact on inflation. It accused the Howard Government of being
"irresponsible". In addition to previous education funding
announcements, Rudd promised Labor would provide an additional
65,000 apprenticeships, migrate all schools to new high speed
broadband, and provide all year 9-12 students with access to their
own computer. A doubling of the number of undergraduate and
postgraduate scholarships available at a tertiary level was
announced, and the party re-iterating its view on climate change
and WorkChoices.[105]

The Labor Party released footage on Thursday 15 November to
Lateline, showing Tony
Abbott addressing a room of people, stating "I accept that
certain protections, in inverted commas, are not what they were" in
reference to WorkChoices legislation. Referring to award
structures, Abbott said in the same footage: "I accept that that
has largely gone. I accept that." When questioned, Abbott said he
stood by the comments that WorkChoices means "certain protections"
are not what they used to be,[106] but
denied conceding workers had lost protections.[107] He
said the video released by Labor was a "cut-and-paste
job".[108]

A report by the National Audit Office found that the Coalition
had been interfering in the $328 million regional grants program,
with a bias toward their marginal seats, where projects under the
Regional Partnerships Program were apparently approved without
proper assessment, or none at all, and that there was an increase
in approvals prior to the 2004 election.[109][110]

Week 6

Newspoll stated Labor's two-party-preferred was down one point
to 54 per cent. Former Liberal Party campaign director Lynton Crosby said
that the Coalition was "closing in on Labor" in the final week and
could "still win a tight election" on a campaign of defending
marginal seats, declaring a win still possible on 48.5 per cent of
the two-party-preferred vote.[111]

On 20 November, John Howard defended the government's
advertising spending in the months prior to the campaign, paid for
with public money. The advertising, which covered topics including
the controversial "Workchoices", cost $360 million over
approximately 18 months.[112] An
article in the 20 November issue of the Herald Sun
suggested spending could have been up to $500 million, though this
took a broader view of what was included in that sum. Mr Howard was
criticised for not revealing documents written by his department
about further changes to industrial relations laws in addition to
WorkChoices
legislation. In response, the government said the proposals had
been cancelled, and that WorkChoices would not be expanded upon.
The Seven
Network failed in attempt to access the documents under Freedom
of Information.[113]

Nationals Senator Barnaby Joyce said that he the
possibility of him crossing the floor to support Labor's amendments
to WorkChoices remained open, and that he would judge all
legislation on its merits, for which he was criticised by Nationals
leader Mark Vaile.[114]

On 21 November, three days before the election, fake pamphlets were
distributed in the electorate of Lindsay, which purported to be from
an Islamic group. The group was non-existent and the pamphlets
thanked the Labor Party for supporting the Bali
bombers and encouraged people to vote Labor. Those involved
included a member of the Liberals' state executive, Jeff Egan; Gary Clark,
husband of retiring MP Jackie Kelly; and Greg Chijoff, the
husband of Lindsay candidate Karen Chijoff.[115]
Kelly said the incident was a "Chaser-style prank."[116]
John Howard condemned the statement.[117]
Egan and Greg Chijoff were immediately expelled from the Liberal
Party a day before John Howard's address to the Australian Press
Club;[118]
although, Egan denied any wrongdoing.[117]
Court cases are progressing.

Citing a clause of the Constitution that states
parliamentarians are not permitted to hold an "office of profit
under the crown", government frontbencher Andrew Robb said that up to 13 Labor
candidates standing in the election may be ineligible for
nomination. According to Robb, a "search of public records"
indicated that the 13 candidates may have still been employed by
government agencies, boards or offices, and that the Liberal Party
may consider legal challenges to their election. According to Labor
Senator Penny Wong,
all Labor's candidates were eligible to stand, and that the
Liberals had obtained the information from outdated websites.[119]

Nine's coverage was hosted by journalist Ray Martin and
political editor Laurie Oakes. Special guests included
Labor politicians Senator Robert Ray and
Shadow Treasurer Wayne
Swan, Liberals Michael Kroger and Communications
Minister Helen
Coonan. The broadcast was watched by 763,000 people and came
third among the free-to-air networks doing full election count
coverage.[121]

The ABC's coverage was hosted by Kerry O'Brien, Tony Jones and Antony Green. Special
guests included Senator Nick Minchin (Finance Minister),
representing the Coalition, and Julia Gillard (Deputy Labor Leader). The
ABC provided live crosses to key electorates around Australia. The
broadcast was watched by 1,112,000 viewers and was the most watched
election coverage.[121]

Ten News covered the
results in a special news bulletin airing about 10:30pm. Anchored
by Bill Woods and Paul Bongiorno in
Canberra, and featuring Sandra Sully with Kevin Rudd
in Brisbane, Deborah Knight with John Howard in
Sydney, and Helen
Kapalos with Peter Costello in Victoria. The network had
heavily advertised that they would be airing The Empire Strikes
Back as an alternative to the coverage on the other networks.

Pre-election
issues

Substantial changes to Australia's industrial relations system, known
as WorkChoices, were
enacted by the government in December 2005 and came into effect in
March 2006.

Roy Morgan polling in June 2007 reported WorkChoices was a reason for Labor party
support, and a fear of union dominance and support for Coalition
economic management policy as the biggest reasons behind the
Coalition vote.[123]
Several big business organisations, including the Australian
Industry Group, declined a request from the Prime Minister to run
advertisements to counter the union-funded campaign.[124] The
share of voters concerned about industrial relations grew from 31
per cent to 53 per cent in the two years to June 2006, with around
three fifths of voters backing Labor's ability to handle the issue
over the Liberal Party.[125]

A Newspoll released in June 2006 reported health and Medicare were the most important
issue for voters, with 83 per cent of respondents rating it "very
important". Other key issues included education (79 per cent), the
economy (67 per cent), the environment (60 per cent) and national
security (60 per cent). Taxation and interest rates, key issues in
previous campaigns, were rated very important by 54 per cent and 51
per cent respectively. Immigration, a key issue in 2001, scored 43 per
cent. The poll showed that voters considered Labor marginally
better-placed to handle health and education, and gave the
government strong backing on the economy and national security.[125]

Kevin Rudd promised Labor would introduce a greenhouse gas
emission reduction target of 60 per cent by 2050, ratify the Kyoto protocol and introduce a mandatory
renewable energy target (MRET) of 20 per cent by 2020. The Howard
government reiterated their position of not ratifying the Kyoto
protocol, setting "voluntary aspirational emission reduction
targets" and introducing a carbon emissions trading scheme by
2012.[126]

Liberal Party electoral
advertising shown on free-to-air and pay TV in 2004.

On 7 June in a speech promoting the government's handling of the
economy, Treasurer Peter Costello recalled the learner driver
slogan of the 2004 election: "This
[the economy] is like a highly engineered racing car and I tell you
what, I wouldn't be putting an L-plate driver in the cockpit at the
moment".[128]
August 2007 saw, for the first time during an election campaign, a
0.25 per cent interest rate rise to 6.5 per cent by the
Reserve Bank, the sixth rise
since the last election in 2004. Labor used the news to argue that
the Coalition could not be trusted to keep interest rates low,
while Costello argued that interest rates would be higher under
Labor.[129] In
November 2007 interest rates were raised for the sixth time since
the 2004 election, to a 10-year high of 6.75 per cent.[130] In
response to Labor criticism of the government on the rate rises, Mr
Howard stated in August 2007 "[Rudd] can scour every transcript,
and I will make them available, of every interview that I gave
during that election campaign and he will find no such
commitment."[131] In
October 2007, Mr Howard "admitted breaking a promise to keep
interest rates at record lows".[132][133][134]
During the 2004 campaign, Howard was also cited as giving the same
promise, personally, on radio.[135]
Inflation figures released on 24 October indicated underlying
inflation was higher than expected, which resulted in seven of
eight financial companies believing there will be an interest rate
rise when the reserve bank met in the middle of November, the first
during an election campaign.[136]

Rudd advocated four-year fixed terms for federal parliaments if
elected. Howard supported four-year terms but opposed fixed
election dates. Any change would require approval by
referendum.[137] In
mid-October, Howard said that if re-elected, the government would
hold a referendum on the inclusion a statement of reconciliation in
the preamble of the constitution.[138]

Roy Morgan, Newspoll,
ACNeilsen and Galaxy timegraph polling showed Labor leading the
Coalition in opinion polling from mid-2006 onward. On several key
questions, Labor increased its lead after Rudd assumed the Labor
leadership from Kim
Beazley, at which point Rudd also assumed the lead as preferred
prime minister. While Labor was ahead in opinion polling, Howard
had led Beazley on this question by a wide margin.

According to Australian political analyst Adam Carr, WorkChoices
was one of five key reasons for "...a change of heart by the
decisive sectors of the electorate". The new industrial relations program, Carr
said, angered the "Howard battlers"--the traditional Labor voters
who had supported Howard for most of the last 11 years—because they
saw it as a direct attack on their livelihood.[139]

ACNielsen polling in
March 2007 had Rudd's personal approval rating at 67 per cent,
which made him the most popular opposition leader in the poll's
35-year history,[140]
with Newspoll (News Limited) 2PP
polling the highest in its history. The largest 2PP election result
for the ALP in its history was at the 1943 election on an
estimate of 58.2 per cent.

A weighted collaboration of all polling since Rudd assumed the
ALP leadership shows an average Labor 2PP figure of 57 per cent
compared with the Coalition's 43 per cent,[141] and
Rudd's consistent outpolling of Howard as preferred prime minister,
something not achieved under previous leaders Mark Latham, Kim Beazley or Simon Crean.

By the time the writs were issued, the Coalition was well behind
Labor in opinion polling, which election analyst Antony Green believed
to show Labor winning government "in a canter". According to Green,
this was a nearly exact reversal of the run-up to the 1996
election. The Coalition was running ahead of Labor in two-party
opinion polling for much of 1995 and 1996, however the mantle of
preferred prime minister regularly switched between Howard and Paul Keating.[142][143]

Possums Pollytics, an anonymous weblog, stated that due to the
uneven nature of the swings, where safe Liberal seats were swinging
up to 14.6 per cent with safe Labor seats swinging around only 4.1
per cent, the Labor party stood to potentially end up with a
maximum of 106 of the 150 lower house seats.[144]

Polling consistently showed that the economy and national
security were the Coalition's strong areas. In August 2007 an Ipsos
poll showed 39 per cent of voters thought Labor was a better
economic manager, compared to 36 per cent for the Coalition, with
25 per cent undecided.[145]

The morning of the election announcement, a special Sun-Herald
Taverner survey of 979 people across New South Wales and Victoria
had been released, indicating a Labor 2PP of 59 per cent, with the
18-29 year old category voting at 72 per cent.[146] The
fortnightly Newspoll was released the day after the election was
called, showing the 2PP remaining steady at Labor 56-44 Liberal.
Howard increased his Preferred PM rating up one per cent to 39 per
cent, while Rudd increased his rating up one per cent to 48 per
cent. On the day after the election was called, Centrebet had odds of 1.47
on Labor, with 2.70 on the Coalition.[147]
Half way through the campaign, with no overall change in the polls,
saw Centrebet odds for Labor shorten to 1.29, with the Liberals on
3.60.[148]
Centrebet odds two days out from the election were at 1.22 for
Labor, with 4.35 for the Coalition.

Newspoll a week out from the election of 3,600 voters in 18 of
the Coalition's most marginal seats revealed an ALP 54-46 Coalition
2PP, a swing to Labor of 6-9 per cent. A uniform swing would see
18-25 seats fall to Labor, The Australian said.[149]

Peter Day, a journalist (ex-The Australian), stated two days
before the election that, if the Coalition were re-elected, it
would be "the biggest polling embarrassment in any developed
country since Truman beat Dewey in 1948".[151]

The election-eve Newspoll and Galaxy poll reported the ALP on a
2PP of 52 per cent, Roy Morgan on 53.5 per cent, with ACNielsen on
57 per cent. Seven News reported that TAB had updated their odds for
the election, with Labor having safe odds of $1.20 and the
Coalition an outside chance on $4.60.

Sky
News-Channel
7-Auspoll exit polls
on election day of 2,787 voters in the 31 most marginal seats
suggested a 53 per cent two-party preferred figure to Labor, 53 per
cent to Labor in Bennelong, and 58 per cent to
Labor in Eden-Monaro.[152] Key
issue questions swung Labor's way.[153]