Long
before the financial crisis broke in September 2008, Michigan was
enduring what some analysts termed a "one-state recession" triggered by
the decline in the auto industry. Michigan's unemployment rate
reached 6.0 percent in Nov. 2001 and has not fallen below that level
since then. The state's annual average unemployment rate for 2008
was 8.4 percent compared to 5.8 percent nationally. A report by Michigan Future Inc.
noted that, "From 2001 to 2007, Michigan ranked last in both overall
employment growth and job growth in high-education attainment
industries." And, according to Census
Bureau estimates, the state's population declined each year since
2005. In the summer and fall it looked as if there would be a
competitive race in Michigan. The candidates were making regular visits
and investing significant amounts in advertising (examples of
Michigan-specific ads: 1(o),
2(m),3(m),
4(o)).
For the period from Sept.
28-Oct. 4,
according to data from TNS Media Intelligence/CMAG with analysis by the
Wisconsin
Advertising Project, the McCain campaign spent $1.25 million on TV
advertising (third most of any state) and the Obama campaign spent
$1.59 million (fifth most of any state). In terms of total
airings of
candidate, party, group, and coordinated ads during this one week
period, the Grand Rapids market ranked eighth and the Detroit market
ninth.

Then, on October 2 the
McCain camp confirmed
it was cutting its campaign in Michigan and shifting most of its
resources
from the state. In a
conference call,
political
director Mike DuHaime stated, "The operations will be scaled back, but
we'll still be in place in Michigan. Resources in terms of some
staff and other resources will move to Maine, where we will be opening
up an aggressive front in Maine...also specifically to Wisconsin and
Pennsylvania..." Senior advisor Greg Strimple added, in response
to a question on advertising, "We will obviously monitor the state and
if we see a swing back in our favor, we'll go re-engage. It has
honestly been the state that since I've been involved in the campaign,
which is the end of July of this year, it's been the worst state of all
the states that are in play. It's an obvious one from our
perspective for it to come off the list." After October 2 there
were no more visits by the principals.

The
campaign did go on however. Michigan Republican Party (MRP)
Chairman Saulius “Saul” Anuzis said the party would continue its work
electing GOP candidates. "The
infrastructure we built isn’t
really affected by decisions like this that come so late in the
game," Anuzis stated. Despite the McCain pull-out, the Obama
campaign maintained a strong organization. Interest groups
continued their activity. Throughout the summer and fall, the
Michigan State AFL-CIO implemented a successful Labor 2008
program. On the conservative side the Our Country Deserves Better
"Stop
Obama Tour" spent three days in Michigan from October 23-25.