Industry’s Leading Skeptic Publishes Sunny 5G Market Forecast

Today, Mobile Experts released a 77-page report with detailed forecasts, cost estimates, and technical details related to the 5G market. This new study, titled 5G Architectures 2017, was built up over three years of intense analysis related to 5G networks and client devices. In particular, Mobile Experts dove deep into semiconductors and network system implementation, to result in precise cost estimates for realistic hardware.

“We don’t feel the need to sugar coat it,” commented Mobile Experts Principal Analyst Joe Madden. “The millimeter-wave fixed-broadband case only fits a highly targeted market in North America, and IoT applications are well served by other cheaper alternatives. But the 5G opportunity in Asia is gathering momentum, and we expect significant deployment in the 2019-2024 timeframe.”

According to the new Mobile Experts study, spectrum at 3.5 GHz and 4.5 GHz is coming to mobile operators in China and Japan, where high mobile traffic density justifies another intense round of base station deployment. Dense Asian cities will need large numbers of radio heads for 5G, using sub-6 GHz bands to achieve the broad coverage required in a mobile network.

In the end, Mobile Experts shows that millimeter-wave 5G will be a secondary part of the overall 5G picture. Five years from now, 3 GHz to 5 GHz will be recognized as the primary 5G bands, since these will achieve the widespread coverage and service that providers prioritize. Millimeter wave bands will add capacity in hotspot locations.

“Cost reduction is the real story behind 5G. We have identified five key factors which will combine for 85% reduction in cost per GB, compared with LTE. Field trials have proven that the technology works, and we have crawled through the detailed data to understand the limitations of technology,” remarked Mr. Madden. “In the past, we’ve been cautious about releasing strong forecasts for 5G, but based on C-band spectrum and successful trials, we now calculate a positive ROI for 5G deployment. We have laid out a forecast for a significant wave of business, beginning with fixed-broadband, then moving to tablets and hotspots, and finally to smartphones.”

More than 60 charts and figures further clarify expected trends in the evolving 5G market, including:

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