An everyday tale of family and political life with a dollop of Formula One and various random thoughts on the side.

Thursday, October 06, 2011

Sarah Palin admits her defeat, but don't write off the GOP yet

So, Sarah Palin is going to spend her time with "God, family and country" over the next few years. After "much prayer and serious consideration" she won't be running for President. Cynics might say that this is less to do with divine intervention and more to do with the fact that she's no longer the poster girl of the batty American right. She knows she would not win the nomination against Mitt Romney, Rick Perry and Michele Bachmann.

I suspect she has her eye on the nomination in 2016, potentially slugging it out for the White House against Hillary Clinton.

Some have suggested that this is her acknowledging that Obama is home and dry for next year. Anyone making that assumption is really misguided. Remember George H W Bush, not a bad President as Republicans go, had 91% approval ratings after the Gulf War - and then lost badly to Bill Clinton just 18 months later. I will not obsess on the fact that the defeat was down to a very publicly broken pledge......especially as it was really about the economy.

If Obama can't provide more jobs, or successfully pin the blame on the Republicans, where it lies, for refusing to even discuss his jobs package, he could be toast. And although Palin has gone, there are plenty nasty characters still in the race for the GOP nomination.

2 comments:

When it comes to Bush snr losing to Clinton I think the key thing that everyone seems to have forgotten is Ross Perot.

Perot got almost 19% of the vote - which was historically remarkable - and the vast majority of those votes came from the right.

Considering Bush lost by just over 5% (I did just look that up, my memory is not quite that good) it means that Perot got more than three times the difference. Also when you look at some of the specific states that were lost that did make the difference it's clear Perot was the decisive factor.

No disrespect to Clinton but I'm not sure he could have won if there had not been a third candidate to Bush's right that bagged such an unprecedented vote.

I posted on exactly the same topic albeit using a different slant at nigh on exactly the same time.

I agree that Obama isn't home and hosed and that any republican candidate would scare me a wee bit. Although I don't see Palin running against Hillary in 2016 as she'd be blown out of the water by her. Remember Hillary won all the key states in the democratic race last time around until the very end - Obama just filled up on states that he wouldn't win in the Presidential race any way.

Palin's chance if it was ever going to come was now. Hillary unless things go seriously pear shaped is primed for a great run and a great chance to win in 2016 and in honesty if she didn't win I'd be both shocked and extremely disappointed.