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CC: Sébastien,
you've been working on various sustainability issues for much of your life. Could
you provide us with some context around this report and its objectives?

SS: With the approach of COP24, which will take place in
Katowice, Poland, in the first two weeks of December 2018, the IPCC report
reminds participants – as well as all governmental and economic actors – of the
need to act decisively.

The IPCC report
was mandated to study both the impact of global warming of 1.5°C above
pre-industrial levels and to determine the global greenhouse gas (GHG) emission
pathways compatible with limiting global warming at this level. Running such an
investigation was, however, seen by many as an impossible task. Notwithstanding
these claims, the IPCC experts fulfilled their mission successfully.

CC: According to
the report, limiting global warming to 1.5°C is possible but extremely
challenging. From your point of view, is it realistic? From a technical and
theoretical perspective, such ambitious mitigation policies seem to be possible
– but to what extent can they be implemented in the real world?

SS: The IPCC conducted, as it always does, a very
sophisticated and well-documented analysis based on the most up-to-date
available scientific knowledge.

Its latest report
starts by reminding the world that with global warming already 1.0°C above
pre-industrial levels, the current situation is already critical and that the
difference between the impacts of 1.5°C and 2.0°C of global warming is huge.
Just think of it this way: at 1.5°C, 70 to 90% of the world's coral reefs would
disappear, compared to 99% at 2°C. At 1.5°C, 350 million people would be affected
by floods, whereas more than 410 million would be affected at 2°C.

Nevertheless,
according to the report, it seems feasible to limit GHG emissions in order to
reach the 1.5°C target. The effort required is
drastic considering the limited timeframe: net global GHG emissions should
decrease by roughly 45% between 2010 and 2030 – taking into account that this
decrease has not really started yet – and should reach zero by 2050.

In other words,
states, public authorities, companies, individuals – everyone – all have a significant
role to play and must do everything possible in order to avoid a major
disaster.

CC: This underlines
the need for everyone to be engaged. BNP Paribas has been working hard to
accompany its clients in their transformation journey, while raising awareness among
its employees in supporting this mobilisation. We should now work closely with
other actors to reinforce our commitments and engage ever deeper in broad
economic and societal transformation. What changes should we expect if we are to
achieve the IPCC goal?

SS: The report itself describes four different GHG
emissions 'pathways' limiting global warming to a maximum 1.5°C. Each requires
drastic and rapid change.

First, global
energy demand will grow only marginally, but a great effort is needed to
prevent this limited energy growth from hindering the development of emerging
countries with growing populations. Efforts to reduce energy demand include
lower energy use and fast electrification of energy end-use.

Second, the electricity
production mix will drastically change. Renewable energy will produce 70-85% of
electricity in 2050. Nuclear production or fossil fuels with carbon capture and
storage (CCS) are projected to increase significantly. Gas (with CCS) will
generate around 8% of electricity while the use of coal will be close to 0% for
electricity production.

Such changes in
the energy mix will need the conversion of millions of square kilometres of
agricultural land used for food and feed crops into land for energy crops.
Furthermore, CO2
emissions from industry are to be decreased by 85-90% in 2050 compared to 2010
through electrification, hydrogen, bio-based feedstock and CCS.

As to the
building sector, it will require both a strong decrease in energy demand and a
strong increase in electrification.

Combustion engine
vehicles have to be restricted in Europe by 2030-2040 and no more fossil fuel
transportation should exist by 2060.

Finally, the
development of carbon dioxide removal (CDR) has of course a very important role
to play, either through carbon sequestration in soils and plants or through new
technologies such as CCS, especially for electricity generation and industry. Unfortunately,
these technologies, besides lacking maturity, also have some important
potentially negative impacts on land use, food supply, water and biodiversity.

To make matters
even more complicated, let's not forget that such 'technical' issues are deeply
interrelated with social considerations. All policies should of course be
implemented in a way that does not hinder the economic growth of emerging
countries with growing populations. Potential negative trade-offs between
climate change mitigation and the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) must
be considered carefully to avoid further increasing the burden on disadvantaged
and vulnerable people around the world.

The details of
these conclusions may be challenged, in one way or another. But what is certain
is that all the energy systems have to face drastic changes in the coming
years. We, in BNP Paribas, have to adapt ourselves, and to anticipate to such
energy transition. It is necessary if we want to help our clients be prepared
to such complete change of paradigm.

CC: Those are
significant long-term changes for many industries! The good news is that
limiting global warming to 1.5°C compared to the pre-industrial era seems to be
technically possible, at least from a theoretical point of view. But is it
realistic to implement changes of such magnitude?

SS: The IPCC report concludes on an optimistic note,
stating that rates of system changes associated with limiting global warming to
1.5°C have already occurred in the past. However, the past energy transitions
were dealing with addition of new
energies to existing ones: coal came as an addition to biomass-based fuel, oil
came as an addition to coal, nuclear power came as an addition to fossil fuels.
Today, the necessary energy transition requires the replacement of fossil fuels with low-carbon energy sources. A
replacement of such magnitude and at such a rapid pace has never been witnessed
in the past.

In addition to
this, some technologies providing the 1.5°C pathways, such as CDR, require a
massive scale-up while others are still rather controversial. Nuclear power is
estimated to grow by 100% to 500% between 2010 and 2050. In addition, we must not
neglect the technological progress that will surely bring new solutions and
ever more effective technologies in the coming years. Those technologies will
need to be taken into consideration by the IPCC as they emerge.

CC: The topic of
climate change has often been hotly debated in several countries at the highest
political level. From your point of view, what is the role of governments and
civil society in the adoption of the required changes?

SS: At this stage, geopolitical issues are obviously a
key point in the global climate strategies. Climate change is a global issue
with local solutions: every government, every company, every actor have to
develop specific solutions if we want to fight effectively climate change, that
will have impacts everywhere on each of us. Sharing effort and investment
between developed and emerging countries is a heavily debated issue. In that
regard, the action of the biggest emitters, the US and China, is still highly uncertain.

Most importantly,
such drastic changes require the engagement of most, if not all, inhabitants on
this planet since they all have a role to play. Most people, companies and
governments need to be convinced that limiting global warming to 1.5°C, or at
worst 2°C, is possible, and, more importantly, that it is worth it, for all of us. Even though it entails
some radical behavioural changes linked to consumption and ways of living,
limiting global warming will help us build a more pleasant world, a world that
is easier to live in when compared to a business-as-usual world, with global
warming higher than 3°C.

CC: Many thanks
for your comments Sébastien. Let us hope COP24 will become the decisive step
towards the global mobilisation of effort to tackle climate change!