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Found this titbit on Quora and couldnt resist posting here. The amount of provocations against SoKo is staggering and their response makes even MMS look like ferocious in outlook:

However, what is often hardly ever discussed about is the DMZ conflict that occurred during 1966 to 1969[1].

If you thought the skirmishes between the two Koreas + acts of military aggression by the North in the past 20 years were bad, the DMZ conflict was multitudes worse and intense in comparison despite that it was a low-intensity counterinsurgency operation.

During this three year time period….•North Korea deployed thousands of infiltrators and propagandists into South Korea, via land or sea, with the intent of staging an insurgency within the heart of the latter, emboldened by the fact that the US focused more heavily on Vietnam at the time.•Many times on a monthly basis, US and ROK outposts and patrols were often attacked by North Korean forces that infiltrated the border, resulting in hundreds killed and wounded during those 3 years. At certain occasions, US aircraft were also shot down[2], such as the EC-121 incident in April 1969.•North Korea attempted - and almost succeeded - in assassinating[3] then-President of South Korea, Park Chunghee, in a one-way raid on 1968. All DPRK commandos except 2 perished, with one captured alive.•In retaliation, South Korea also conducted numerous raids and intel-gathering missions on its own[4] deep into North Korea. It is believed that thousands of South Korean commandos and captured North Koreans who defected to the South were deployed. Tragically, most never returned alive.

One of the most heavy battles in the DMZ conflict was the Ulchin-Samcheok Landings, where 120 North Korean commandos actually occupied several villages and indoctrinated them with communist propaganda, while setting up a base in the mountains.

In response, South Korean special forces, police, marines and Army homeland reserve forces struck back. The battle resulted in most of the North Koreans wiped out, albeit with the South Koreans losing 40 men and 23 civilians killed in the fighting.

While it was a low-intensity war overall, perhaps the most shocking fact about it is that nearly 2,500 North Korean agents were captured. That alone speaks multitudes on just how serious North Korea was in trying to actually start a war within South Korea itself through proxy.

Did Xi's point man also gift these guys the missile and the required things last week? All the while the US media ranted about the missile not even capable of reaching Guam. Now they speak about anywhere in the world, NY, DC etc. Did the US shrink overnight geographically or they have significantly downplayed the range discussion in media, all the while.

Do note that they are considering the head to be a very light one considering the long range.

I do not know what you refer to as the "media" but there were plenty of reports dating back months of media outlets reporting the GOTUS statement and agreeing with the fact that North Korea had an ICBM capability which it was working through testing on, and that this was the intended demonstration of it :

If these numbers are correct, then if flown on a standard trajectory rather than this lofted trajectory, this missile would have a range of more than 13,000 kilometers (km) (8,100 miles).

Not so sure of this 13000 km estimate. If this number is correct, the missile would have to weigh around 85,000 kg by my calculation. I have no clue about the actual weight, but this wikipedia seems to suggest 4000 to 6500 kg. Taking 6500 kg would give a range of about 1000 (+1000) = 2000 km. I added 1000 km as this is the horizontal distance the missile flew.

I'm wondering if this is more of a politically convenient exaggeration as, at the moment, the democrats are threatening non-cooperation with Trump - which might lead to a "shutdown" of the government.

By the way, I used the following quantities, to do a naive calculation:missile diameter: 1.25 mWeight: 6500 kgDrag Coeff of streamlined body in air: 0.04 (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Drag_coefficient)Avg speed of missile: 5000 m/s (based on travelling 10,000km from NK to NYC in 40 mins)Density of Air: 1.225 kg/m3Height travelled by missile: 4480 km

Edit: Hmm, I forgot to account for air resistance on the way up. That would certainly increase the estimate. Too lazy to do the full calculation now. Also 1.25^2 should be (1.25/2)^2 so that would also increase the estimate. Well, 13000 certainly looks possible.

If that picture is not just illustrative, it seems like it was the same missile launched july28 and move 29 with a larger angle of launch, which leads to missile reaching a greater height but travelling a shorter distance. Of course, no one actually knows the coordinates of where the missiles fell with each launch, which allows NoKo to make whatever claims it wants, to cause soiled armani suits in Washington D.C.

As expected, Trump is joining Eleven Dingding in pretending that "serious action" is being taken, to cover up the total impotence of the USA exposed by NoKo's actions. No wonder the US state dept. did not want trump to talk the big talk, because the US does not have the capacity to follow through with its threats against NoKo. Best "game" that the US has is to maintain the charade that China is cooperating in dealing with NoKo. Impotence of US's power projection reaches new highs.

@realDonaldTrump Just spoke to President XI JINPING of China concerning the provocative actions of North Korea. Additional major sanctions will be imposed on North Korea today. This situation will be handled!

If these numbers are correct, then if flown on a standard trajectory rather than this lofted trajectory, this missile would have a range of more than 13,000 kilometers (km) (8,100 miles).

Not so sure of this 13000 km estimate. If this number is correct, the missile would have to weigh around 85,000 kg by my calculation. I have no clue about the actual weight, but this wikipedia seems to suggest 4000 to 6500 kg. Taking 6500 kg would give a range of about 1000 (+1000) = 2000 km. I added 1000 km as this is the horizontal distance the missile flew.

I'm wondering if this is more of a politically convenient exaggeration as, at the moment, the democrats are threatening non-cooperation with Trump - which might lead to a "shutdown" of the government.

By the way, I used the following quantities, to do a naive calculation:missile diameter: 1.25 mWeight: 6500 kgDrag Coeff of streamlined body in air: 0.04 (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Drag_coefficient)Avg speed of missile: 5000 m/s (based on travelling 10,000km from NK to NYC in 40 mins)Density of Air: 1.225 kg/m3Height travelled by missile: 4480 km

I am not clear how your calculation are done.. I know it is estimate but still a few points..- Trajectory is an ellipse - not clear what is being assumed in above calculation..(The speed also varies etc along the path)- Drag Coeff does not matter as much as you think.. after few hundred seconds, the missile is outside most of the atmosphere..(it reaches hundred(s) of Km in just 100-200 secs)Anyway - In other threads I have put some basics about trajectories which may help in estimation.. (More details, if of interest, can be discussed in Physics or Space dhaga).. rough calculation using most basic physics...(Conservation of Energy - Neglecting Air resitance)(1/2)m(v_1^2+v_2^2) - G*m*M/r = (1/2)mV^2 - G*m*M/R and rV_2 =R*V*Cos(B)Here, m= mass of rocket, M=Mass of Earth, G=Gravitational Constant (6.6*10^(-11)), v_1 is radial velocity, V_2 horizontal component of velocity at point r (distance from center of earth) and B is launch angle and V is launch velocity.. etc..

You can solve for a few unknowns (or estimate) like (m if you know the others like max height reached)..Bottom line from what we know (if believe the height of trajectory)- range of 13000Km (if the load -m - is same) has very little ambiguity -- and calculation, at least for fairy good estimation is easy - as far as math is concerned.

OT, but rocket fuel is likely to be a significant percent of the weight of the rocket so it may not be reasonable to assume that "m=mass of rocket" is a constant. It will probably decrease linearly as a function of time, assuming that the burn rate is a constant -- it does provide a lower bound for the max height.

Regardless, all of this is probably not relevant to little Kim's game of smoke and mirrors with chinese characteristics -- this is about getting the so-called national defense personnel in USA to shiver in their expensive boots, and to get them to the negotiating table. That is after all the usual SOP for the Trump anyway -- take extreme positions and then waddle towards some middle ground...may have worked well in business deals when you are the big dog, but not so well in international politics where warmongering is an option.

^^Perhaps I have used m=mass of payload for clarity but that is what I intended -- fuel (+rocket) mass is obviously MUCH much more (to put the payload in the trajectory) but majority of fuel is burned almost right away (first few minutes) and virtually all of its later trajectory is ellipse -- like a well studied ballistic missile orbit -- hence the calculation will give pretty good result. Main point is, knowing max height reached and/or say location/velocity measured at a few points on the trajectory can tell us the max range such ICBM will have. One can also calculate the range if the payload mass is changed.

Many other things can be smoke and mirror but the range of missile can not be a bluff game as other countries have more than enough data to estimate it quite accurately. (For example, even if one just knew the launch position, highest height reached, and position where it landed, one can (fairly accurately) estimate max range of that rocket if optimal angle was used)

AmberG:majority of fuel is burned almost right away (first few minutes) and virtually all of its later trajectory is ellipse -- like a well studied ballistic missile orbit -- hence the calculation will give pretty good result.

I am not doubting your calculations, but calculations are only as good as the estimates of the values for m and other variables that are not universally known. while the upper and lower bounds of payloads may be used, they do not reflect on the actual range of the missile when armed, unless we assume that these missile-firing exercises are going to truthfully use payloads that match actual live payloads. I am just saying all this related to all the noise from groups like UCS and FAS, not government agencies, who will remain silent on such matters even if they have accurate information.

I mean, It is not like Kim Jong's scientists suddenly managed to develop a missile with a greater range than before, and given that bluffing about the range and lethality of NoKo's missiles and nukes is part of this drama that is all purely for optics (mostly for internal and external propaganda), it implies that NoKo uses different payloads and different models of missile depending on the "message" it wants to send out at a given time. Short of human intelligence that provides specific details of the payload used for each launch, even the most accurate calculations are likely to be susceptible to error, which is the source of the ambiguity. However, most of the noise and braying we hear from the likes of "Union of Concerned Scientists" or "FAS" are not based on such intelligence, since they don't have access to the Humint that governments have access to.

So NoKo acheieved an increase of 1000 kms range in just one month, just in time to challenge a rise in US rhetoric, eh? Or is it more likely that these guys have always had this capability and are "revealing" it at an opportune time. Also, the image suggests the US west coast is in range, not the US east coast as the caption claims.

So NoKo acheieved an increase of 1000 kms range in just one month, just in time to challenge a rise in US rhetoric, eh? Or is it more likely that these guys have always had this capability and are "revealing" it at an opportune time. Also, the image suggests the US west coast is in range, not the US east coast as the caption claims.

Or MR XI is handing out some of his redundant weaponary while pulling the strings.

Ramanaji, so all NoKo/China had to do to counter USA/Trump's saber-rattling is to demonstrate that Noko (China) missiles can reach continental USA. Somehow the NPAs thought that allowing the chinese to proliferate nukes/missiles to pakis to tie down India could be used to denuke India, but that is coming back to bite the NPAs pretty hard. Now USA is neutralized by a "NoKo" proxy threat from China which gets to keep its business with US as usual, while forcing the USA to lose face as a "super power". Seems like China's plan to overtake the US strategically and militarily has worked out, not least because the USA policymakers (NPAs and friends) have been proven incompetent.

Aditya_V: Or MR XI is handing out some of his redundant weaponary while pulling the strings.

That is an absolute certainty that NoKo is just firing missiles of chinese origin (design and part of manufacturing) --- the Chinese control > 80% of NoKo economy which provides China significant leverage over NoKo. But China never touches this bit of leverage -- it always proceeds for optics like "sanctions on NoKo" or some other moronic US NoKo containment policy, mostly because more external sanctions on NoKo only makes NoKo even more dependent on China, and allows china to enact whatever drama it wants with NoKo as the bad guy and China as "mediator".

periaswamy wrote:Ramanaji, so all NoKo/China had to do to counter USA/Trump's saber-rattling is to demonstrate that Noko (China) missiles can reach continental USA. Somehow the NPAs thought that allowing the chinese to proliferate nukes/missiles to pakis to tie down India could be used to denuke India, but that is coming back to bite the NPAs pretty hard. Now USA is neutralized by a "NoKo" proxy threat from China which gets to keep its business with US as usual, while forcing the USA to lose face as a "super power". Seems like China's plan to overtake the US strategically and militarily has worked out, not least because the USA policymakers (NPAs and friends) have been proven incompetent.

In Telugu' Cherapuku ra chededavu!" Do not spoil for you will get spoiled!

in 1985, US winked at China to give nukes to Pak.They winked at France for giving nuke capable pylons for F16s. (This is no joke. Special cable harnesses are needed to pass arming signals)And supplied Stingers to Taliban.All this resulted in FSU losing helicopters and air support leading to defeat.FSU could not retaliate against Pak due to nuke arming of TSP.Nor could India execute Operation Brasstacks.

Rajiv Gandhi reluctantly agreed to produce the nukes.His cabinet fell for corruption charges.In 1990, China tested Pak bomb at Lop Nor. US knew all this.Pak escalated jihad in Kashmir.PVNR countered this and got ready to test before NPT was extended in perpetuity.Some mole leaked the information to US. And they put their satellites to take pictures.PVNR lost the 1996 elections.ABV govt came to power for 13 days.Deva Gowda/Gujral govt was a do nothing govt.1998 ABV got elected and PAk tested the Ghauri which meant they have full spectrum deterrent.US interlocutor came and warned not to conduct missile tests in tit for tat.ABV conducted the pending nuke tests.Pak tested its nukes.NPT had now de-facto nuke powers.1999 ABV govt fell and Kargil occupation was started.

After 911, China seeing this decided to counter Japan and South Korea by arming NoKo.

After 2008 financial crisis, they saw opportunity to even checkmate USA.Their goal is to clear the Pacific and eventually be ready for the Artic passage as global warming clears the waterways.

They have made all this clear and published it.

Biggest mistake is relying on US experts for they are half paid by China to lull and the rest are crooks.

I had Ravi Rikhye think through the China plan and it got published in Swarajya

ramana wrote:No. They tested it on this trajectory. The key is what was it's terminal velocity? >7km/sec will target anywhere. 8100 miles is 13K km.Quite far.

I think you mean burnout - (when rocket fuel is exhausted) - speed. If it is > (sqrt(gR))=approx 8 km/sec, theoretically, one can target anywhere on earth. (To reach moon (or mars) you need 11 Km/sec ). One can fairly easily (Basic physics/Calculus) estimate burnout speed just from time of flight only...If I assuming no air friction and vertically lofted flight time of 54 minutes this comes out to be about 7.5 km/sec)...

ramana wrote:No. They tested it on this trajectory. The key is what was it's terminal velocity? >7km/sec will target anywhere. 8100 miles is 13K km.Quite far.

I think you mean burnout - (when rocket fuel is exhausted) - speed. If it is > (sqrt(gR))=approx 8 km/sec, theoretically, one can target anywhere on earth. (To reach moon (or mars) you need 11 Km/sec ). One can fairly easily (Basic physics/Calculus) estimate burnout speed just from time of flight only...If I assuming no air friction and vertically lofted flight time of 54 minutes this comes out to be about 7.5 km/sec)...

China has proliferated weapons of mass destruction to NoKo, and everyone has to pretend this did not happen because they were complicit in allowing all this nuclear and WMD proliferation under their watch for their own reasons. China has gained strategic superiority over the US and western powers at this time-- western powers cannot afford to push back on china too hard, else this NoKo puppet will throw a hissy fit, requiring chinese cooperation as the solution. Western powers cannot threaten war, as that would escalate to a nuclear war with these latest tests.

This seems like a stable equilibrium and makes NoKo untouchable, no matter what sanctions are placed on it. China can throw its weight around without fear of repercussions from the west.

periaswamy wrote:Ramanaji, so all NoKo/China had to do to counter USA/Trump's saber-rattling is to demonstrate that Noko (China) missiles can reach continental USA. Somehow the NPAs thought that allowing the chinese to proliferate nukes/missiles to pakis to tie down India could be used to denuke India, but that is coming back to bite the NPAs pretty hard. Now USA is neutralized by a "NoKo" proxy threat from China which gets to keep its business with US as usual, while forcing the USA to lose face as a "super power". Seems like China's plan to overtake the US strategically and militarily has worked out, not least because the USA policymakers (NPAs and friends) have been proven incompetent.

3 points. 1) 1999 ABV govt fell and Kargil occupation was started." ABV govt fell only in 2004, right? 2) The twitter report from NoKo claims validation of re-entry heat shield. But the trajectory is basically a throw-up/ fall down one. Will the vehicle reach hypersonic speed on re-entry in a free fall (no significant tangential speed, like those using satellite launchers). 3) The most sneaky statement there was the quote from NORAD that "no threat to the US or allies". I think that referred to the most recent launch trajectory, not to the capability of the design. If US is going to rationalize saying "no threat this time", then the obvious next step is a flight over the USA, falling in the Atlantic.

Last edited by UlanBatori on 01 Dec 2017 18:44, edited 1 time in total.

ArjunPandit wrote:When will pakistan test these missiles? or will they be simply painted green and christened as Hyder Ali/Tipu/Aurangzeb?Seems like UBCN has stopped coverage of this part of world

It depends on what the Chinese Govt thinks, are they willing to risk giving Pakis the Missiles and Nukes where they can hit back at them, Noko does not have Islam and thier leaders can be fully controlled, Paki Generals have their relatives in US/UK/ Australia/ Gulf and easily fall for Islamic diktats.

Its one thing to hurt India, but Chinese dont want a missile that even hits Israel to the Pakis.

Commenting on the latest developments, Lavrov said it seems that the US wants North Korea to resume the tests. “The latest US action seemed to be directed towards provoking Pyongyang into taking some rash action,” he told journalists on Thursday. The foreign minister called the missile test “an adventure,” but said that Washington has apparently been trying to goad North Korean leader Kim Jong-un into it.

“The Americans should start with explaining their intentions to us all. If they are really looking for an excuse to destroy North Korea, as the US envoy to the UN said at a Security Council meeting, let them spell it out clearly and let the US leadership confirm it. Then we will decide how to react,” Lavrov said.

MOSCOW, December 1. /TASS/. North Korea is prepared for sanctions and will not abandon its nuclear program, a senior Russian lawmaker, who is currently on a visit to North Korea, told TASS on Friday."They are not scared by sanctions at all, they will not abandon their nuclear program only because of them. As the head of the parliament told us, they are ready to live under those sanctions for a century," said Alexei Chepa, a deputy chairman of the State Duma International Affairs Committee, who is a member of the Russian parliamentary delegation to North Korea.

According to the Russian lawmaker, North Korea is not ready to return to the negotiation process on the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula because of the Western policies. "They are perfectly aware of everything making it clear that any sabre rattling, any threats will yield no results," he stressed.

Chepa said that North Korea could cancel its latest missile test, if the United States and South Korea made a step forward in the negotiation process instead of whipping up tensions.

"There were 75 days of lull. If the United States and South Korea had made at least one step towards negotiations, this launch would have probably not taken place. However, the United States has not done anything," the lawmaker told TASS.[b]He added that, "while North Korea kept silent, the US, on the contrary, was whipping up tensions." "Several cruisers were present in the Sea of Japan, additional exercises were announced, which was perceived as a continuation of the threat from the United States," the parliamentarian stressed.

Chepa added that Russian lawmakers clearly outlined Russia’s stance, which condemned the missile tests. "Our stance condemning this launch was outlined right from the start. We talked about the need for negotiations and a double freeze, the gradual denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula, disarmament and an end to all exercises," he noted.

However, according to the Russian lawmaker, the North Korean representatives said in response that the latest test had been conducted "to counter the American threat" and "achieve parity with the US." "All Korean counterparts viewed that as a huge victory for the Korean people, as a big achievement in the economic and military sphere. Today it’s a holiday in North Korea, rallies are being held," Chepa said.

In his view, to bring Pyongyang to the negotiating table in these circumstances "it is necessary to end the policy of intimidation, the policy of provocations" by the United States and South Korea.

A delegation of Russian lawmakers led by its coordinator Kazbek Taisayev paid a visit to Pyongyang at the invitation of the North Korean parliament from November 27 to December 1.

MOSCOW (Sputnik) — Russia is examining the possible outcome of a military option in dealing with the North Korea crisis, Security Council Secretary Nikolai Patrushev has told Sputnik.

Asked whether Russia had any contingency plan in place for a potential military solution to the standoff over the North's nuclear ambitions, he replied that "we are assessing this and preparing ourselves. We will not be taken by surprise."Patrushev admitted that Pyongyang’s behavior put Russia at risk. "We basically share a border with them. That’s why we are interested in a political and diplomatic solution."

The secretary stressed that Russia will not allow military action against North Korea, after the US diplomat at the United Nations threatened Pyongyang with destruction.

"If there is military action – and you know some countries do not rule it out – this would create all sorts of problems, including for us," he said. "But we cannot let that happen."

I saw that.. What exactly do u mean by "Pakistan", hain? It is South Xinjiang. PRC road runs thru it to PRC port at Ah Svet (formerly known as Gwadar). New PRC railroad to run through Lahim Yall Khan to Kalachi. Banks and Jarnails' homes all mortgaged to Great Eleven Bank of Nanjing. So where is the need to paint or test anything any more?

What I have not understood is why the stock market has shown no signs of serious concern. Any gyan on this, experts? I mean, at this point I would agree that the US is faced with a binary choice: Lose or fight. Nothing short of blockade and bombing the bridges, can stop trade and choke NoKo, so just have 3 carrier groups sitting on their thumbs there and running into cargo ships and sandbanks, is going to make the US look more ludicrous every day. This latest call to break off diplo relations is pathetic.

US cannot get a UNSC resolution to allow war. Forget UNGA. So it has to be unilateral with only Poodlestan and MAYBE 'roostan in tow with Japan and SoKo expecting to get trashed. SoKo govt is not going to endorse war. COTUS is not going to authorize war, they (both sides) want to wage war against the POTUS instead.

And the clock is ticking faster. Next NoKo test will land in the Pacific far away from Sea of Japan. NORAD will decide that there is no threat to CONUS or Allies. Mohterma NikkiBibi will threaten Very Very Very Very VERY Utter Destruction onlee.

Next test will land in the Atlantic, safely east of US East Coast. NORAD will decide that there is no threat to CONUS or Allies such as Grenada. Mohterma NikkiBibi will threaten Very Very Very Very Very Very Very VERY Utter Destruction onlee.

So the clock is ticking for DT. He ***HAS***** to strike now because options just get worse down the line.

Why is stock market not reacting? Is the rise in Chinese stocks cancelling out the decline in US stock? Has the market decided that US has already lost?

I don't know about Japan. Except for NBG, missiles are not a grave threat, unless fired in huge numbers. A few missiles lobbed into cities will cause local casualties and infrastructure damage, but look at Saddam's SCUDs - mostly harassment value. NoKo's air force and Navy are non-players. So I see no reason for Japan to suffer damage UNLESS nuke missiles are fired.

SOKO will get damaged by artillery. Again my feeling is that this is vastly overblown. Will start fires and cause civilian casualties, but IMO will not last more than 10 minutes.

Of course if China enters the war it is a different story. Russia? I don't see them doing anything other than stir the pot and aggravate the way as possible without directly getting involved.

3 points. 1) 1999 ABV govt fell and Kargil occupation was started." ABV govt fell only in 2004, right? 2) The twitter report from NoKo claims validation of re-entry heat shield. But the trajectory is basically a throw-up/ fall down one. Will the vehicle reach hypersonic speed on re-entry in a free fall (no significant tangential speed, like those using satellite launchers). 3) The most sneaky statement there was the quote from NORAD that "no threat to the US or allies". I think that referred to the most recent launch trajectory, not to the capability of the design. If US is going to rationalize saying "no threat this time", then the obvious next step is a flight over the USA, falling in the Atlantic.

1) ABV govt. fell in April 1999. In 2004 it was defeated in elections. Difference.2) When the body reenters it develops the hypersonic speed.3) Don't know. Most experts have stated all US in under threat from the demonstrated flight trajectory. Mattis, SecDef also stated the threat.