The petty officer advancement list for fall 2013 is expected to drop Tuesday.

The chief of naval personnel released the fall 2013 advancement quotas early Thursday (click here). Overall, the chance to advance across all three paygrades was down slightly ó 27.71 percent, down a bit more than a percentage point from the 28.94 percent who moved up in the spring.

Navy Times crunched the quotas to give you a preview of some of the biggest winners and losers in the fall cycle.

The winners

▲ Itís been a tough decade for some surface engineers, as the Navy has shifted away from a reliance on steam propulsion. But a reshuffling of the engineman and machinistís mate ratings has resulted in an advancement boom for machinistís mates at the E-4 and E-6 paygrades, advancing all test-passers attempting to reach each level.

All 240 E-5s passing their test will make first class, while at the E-4 level, all 302 test-passers will get their first petty officerís crow.

▲ Advancement is also good for junior petty officers in the mass communications specialist rating,where 85 of 94 test-passers will enter the petty officer ranks, a 90.43 percent shot at moving up. That marks a significant increase over the 68.48 percent chance in the spring.

E-5 advancement chances also ticked up ó a 43.48 percent shot at advancing, up from springís 42.47 percent.

▲ Even with the war in Afghanistan winding down, the Navy always needs SEALs. This cycle, the special warfare operator rating is again advancing all eligible sailors across all three paygrades.

Itís worth noting, though, that at E-4, that 100 percent opportunity applies to just one test-passer, and that there were no eligible SOs up for third class last cycle.

Losing ground

▼ One of the most struggling ratings across all three paygrades is the Seabee rating of equipment operator. At E-6, only one sailor out of 157 test-passers will advance ó a 0.64 percent opportunity, down from 24 quotas and an 11.88 percent shot at moving up in the spring.

Itís not much better at E-5, where just seven of 142 test-passers will move up, down from 42 quotas and a 27.63 percent shot in the spring. The best chance to move up came at E-4, but itís not much to crow about: A 9.92 percent rate will result in 13 of 131 test-passers getting the nod.

Officials say force-structure changes are causing advancement pain for construction sailors. They expect opportunity to bounce back, but possibly not for a year or longer.

▼ The addition of the P-8A Poseidon aircraft to the Navyís inventory brought with it a change in the enlisted billet base for those in the maritime patrol community. That makes it a tough road for those in the naval aircrewman (avionics) and naval aircrewman (mechanical) ratings ó AWF and AWV, respectively.

Itís toughest for those trying to make E-6, where none of the 219 test-passers in either rating will advance. The drop is significant, as both ratings advanced much closer to the 17.46 percent Navy-wide paygrade average in the spring, with AWV moving up 16.82 percent and AWF slightly lower at 11.31 percent.

The plummet is more significant at E-5, where AWF fell from a 38.57 percent shot in the spring to a 3.03 percent shot, while AWV dropped to 2.90 percent from 43.96 percent.

▼ Cuts in the fleet bands took 44 musician billets out of the E-4 ranks and another 28 at E-5. This cut the chance to put on third class from 100 percent last spring to zero this cycle. At second class, opportunity held steady ó the exact same, but low, 6.16 percent shot of moving up.

Making MU1 has gotten a bit easier, rising to an 18.64 percent shot this cycle from 11.86 percent in the spring. Officials are hopeful the rating will settle out at the lower paygrades over the next two cycles.