"You've got someone that has tremendous leadership
qualities, whose teammates love him, who's unselfish in
terms of spreading the praise around. He's as ready to
go as any young quarterback can be..."Leigh Steinberg on his client Ryan Leaf (1998)

"He is really the only quarterback in this draft
that appears ready to play immediately. He is extremely
bright, a playmaker and he has the one quality of positive
decision making that is important to any team. I believe...
a lack of arm strength will not show up when he gets
into the league." Marty Schottenheimer on Cade McNown (1999)

"I think he's probably the best back in this draft,
if you run a one-back system. He's the best back available.
I think he's an outstanding football player."Ron Wolf on Ron Dayne (2000)

Ah yes, theory versus reality.

The important fact to take from those quotes is that as evaluators
of talent, even people whose jobs rely on it can be wrong.
In some cases horribly wrong. One person follows another with
more glowing assessments and it starts to sound very reasonable
and even exciting. It's easy to get swept away in the hype.

If you allow yourself to become too locked in on a player,
you can end up ruining your draft strategy just like the NFL
teams that took the big reach for Cade McNown, Ryan Leaf,
Ron Dayne and dozens of others in their drafts the past decade.
Be careful of the hype or before you know it, it's 2 AM and
you just ordered a pocket lint burner from an infomercial
on TV, unaware that it is really only brass-colored plastic
and it will singe all the hair off your arm while you try
to burn lint that you never really had anyway.

Let's be reasonable.

When you approach your drafts, certainly there are some players
that you really want and that is fine. Take them early if
you really like some individual but in preparing for your
draft, you need to treat your positional players in groups
or "tiers" of similar risk and reward payoffs.

"Tiers" are made by determining which players who
you feel are relative equals in what they can deliver this
season. A tier should contain players that "net out"
the same when risk and reward are considered. A tier may contain
players which are the product of projections or just personal
preferences, but a tier contains players that you would be
about as happy with no matter which one you took. They are
all ranked in order for selecting, but tiers offer you a way
to better address the hectic pace of your draft.

More than anything, "tiering" is an artform.

Before delving into the art, let's consider a bit of the
science behind the concept of tiers. In fantasy football,
each season will produce approximately the same scoring from
season to season in any given scoring scenario. The actual
stats themselves fall into tiers because there are players
that score similar to one another, and yet small groups that
represent a step down from the higher tier and a step up from
the lower tier.

Below is a table that shows the past five seasons player
results using standard performance scoring. Normally, there
are about three players that will top the lists each season.
They are followed by the next group which can be six or eight
players and depend on the particular position. There is nothing
hard and fast about the numbers in each natural scoring tier
and in some cases you could argue with what I called a natural
tier for that position and year. The important factor is not
to get tied up in specific numbers, but to recognize that
tiers do occur naturally..

Quarterbacks

Running Backs

Wide Receivers

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

364

349

335

297

314

282

342

318

283

291

273

298

286

272

283

256

296

285

260

268

243

279

284

259

257

237

275

258

257

254

233

256

231

255

249

229

254

218

250

244

225

231

216

239

244

210

228

213

232

239

208

219

212

216

222

204

218

209

211

222

199

214

199

208

217

194

210

197

205

202

192

205

188

205

200

186

199

180

197

195

159

189

175

196

190

157

184

167

196

188

157

171

163

188

185

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

369

310

372

337

365

323

308

332

269

317

290

250

284

256

299

274

246

252

255

281

274

223

246

236

267

247

215

240

225

262

228

203

240

212

258

226

196

232

211

251

224

194

231

208

249

209

184

231

185

222

204

178

224

180

214

201

177

223

180

212

196

172

218

172

211

188

169

210

164

205

175

166

201

159

199

167

159

197

158

196

167

150

194

154

192

161

148

191

152

184

157

143

184

145

179

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

230

234

228

233

234

222

210

219

233

218

201

198

218

205

217

182

194

217

199

182

178

188

195

179

177

172

187

194

178

176

165

177

193

174

172

165

175

181

170

169

163

172

176

166

169

162

167

173

162

161

162

165

172

160

159

161

158

163

158

156

149

155

158

158

152

149

148

158

151

151

148

146

151

150

148

146

140

147

149

145

140

139

143

142

142

129

139

139

141

141

126

137

133

141

141

Why Create Positional Tiers?

In planning your draft and tracking the players taken, tiers
allow you to better address your own needs compared to what
players are available. Basically, tiers can allow you to build
a better team during the portion of the drafts that starting
positions are being filled and in some cases can help you
decide if you should grab a running back or quarterback backup
or go ahead and take your first tight end or defense or whatever.

When a draft is underway there is pressure to make the best
pick for your team within your allotted time. You need to
be able to plan your draft as it is happening in response
to how players are being taken. There are two big reasons
why this can be critical:

1. You may expect a draft to run a certain way how different
players and positions are taken. You can plan ahead, based
on your draft slot, as to which player or position you are
going to address in order. I have personally done that in
probably every fantasy draft I have had in the past thirteen
years. I can also claim that I cannot ever remember actually
following the plan in its' entirety in any draft. Why? Because
"things" happen.

This season is shaping up as the Great RB Rush of 2003. It
varies from draft to draft but overall, running backs are
going fast in every league. Guaranteed. But the quarterbacks
and receivers are not consistent where they are selected at
all. It depends on the RB run and the other drafters selections.
For example, I have always preached taking a quarterback in
later rounds. I normally wait until about the fourth to sixth
rounds depending on the draft. However, this season I just
picked up Daunte Culpepper in one league with my 3.07 selection
because I could not let him slip past unlike other drafters.
He headed up the first tier of quarterbacks on my board and
though it changed my plans, it was the best pick to make.

Tiering makes it very easy to see where value picks are still
available. Those are the ones that give you an advantage.

2. Tiering allows you to better recover from the #1 tragedy
in any draft. It never fails for me - if I dare to lock onto
one player that I want, the chances that he will be drafted
during the pick immediately before me usually runs about 97%
in my experience. It can be disheartening, frustrating, annoying,
criminal, ridiculous, saddening, maddening and very DOH! I
NOW ONLY HAVE 45 SECONDS LEFT TO MAKE A PICK!

That can throw you in any case, but if you tier it makes
it easier to rebound quickly. You can assess the remaining
players better knowing what small groupings you have to choose
from.

Creating positional tiers is the best way to actively manage
your draft and thereby the flow of optimal players onto your
roster. It also allows you to track the draft, change course
and recover quickly from having that moron pick your guy right
in front of you. That team owner you never liked, that is
using some cheat sheet that he ripped from a magazine and
that owes you money from the time that - DOH! I ONLY HAVE
30 SECONDS LEFT TO MAKE A PICK!

How to Tier

Tiering is a definite art and yet allows you to control your
drafting or auction process. While you could create your own
tiers based solely from projections, and many do just that,
tiers should be created considering groups of players that
offer similar risk/reward, at least in what they net offering.
By this I mean you may have a tier which contains some solid
yet unspectacular players and mix in some potential superstars
that have unusually high risk.

To provide an example, let's consider The Huddle's current
first three tiers for running backs.

The first 17 running backs play out into three tiers in my
estimation. Let's analyze why:

Tier 1 - Every player in this grouping comes off a big 2002
campaign with no real change to their offenses. Each is the
clear cut option for their team and if any of them turn into
the NFL rushing leader it will be no surprise. There is a
little mixture here - all are young, talented backs except
for Holmes and Faulk. Holmes returns from a hip injury and
Faulk had a down year but either are definite contenders to
be huge difference makers for their owners. Those two carry
more risk due to age, but it is a risk I am willing to accept
given their recent history of superlative seasons.

Tier 2 - The best I can describe this group is that next
to tier one, these four players "net" out to a similar
level below that of tier one and yet slightly higher than
tier three. William Green has the most upside since he ended
last season red-hot but since he did not manage that for the
entire 2002 season, I need to temper his outlook with the
risk he has from not having a full season of top performance.
Barber is always a solid pick and 2002 was a stellar one in
his career year. I would not move him up higher since he is
actually a bit light for an everydown back, but you cannot
deny his productivity. He will never lead the league in rushing
yards, but has a good chance to rank highly in total yards.
Edgerrin James is a tier one back to many, but I move him
to tier two in view of his risk. He is now two seasons beyond
his last big year and was continually hurt last season. If
he is 100%, he is a definite tier one player but his risk
concerns me enough to allow someone else to take the chance.
Ahman Green is only one season past his last big year and
has a very nice rushing schedule, but he also was dinged up
last season and Davenport may be taking some yards and scores
from him. If I end up with one of these players, I had better
have a tier one running back or receiver already.

Tier 3 - These players all offer likely solid production
to me though a see none of them creeping into the top five
for various reasons. I would love to have any of these as
my second running back because it would yield consistency
to a high scoring position on my team. If I can still reach
a top receiver or quarterback in my draft and have one of
these guys, I would likely do just that.

The tier one runningbacks are always gone by the first round
and often Tier 2 is gone very early in the second round. I
can go into my draft knowing that if I have a tier one back
and my second pick would allow me to get one of these AND
maybe a tier one receiver or quarterback, I would have an
excellent start to my draft with three solid picks.

You can, and should, tier players as deeply as the starters
are taken for each position if not one more tier of quality
backups to pursue. The ability to tier players well is not
an ability that someone new to fantasy football can likely
do very well since you need to incorporate much more than
raw projections. You need to determine what each player offers
in total considering their risk, past history and current
outlook. After a few seasons, it becomes much easier to do
yourself.

Tiering players allows you to make quick decisions that are
already supported by your previous research and thoughts.
When it comes to your turn in the draft, it is just far easier
and quicker to review the remaining players in sets of tiers
than to read every player name or just grab the top guy from
one position in your cheatsheet. When it comes to your turn
and you see that only one player remains in, say, tier three
for running backs and yet there are seven left in the highest
open tier for receivers, you can immediately know that you
can take that runner and still get as good a receiver with
your next pick while that running back would be very likely
gone at that point.

The safest way to tier is to make a top three in each position
be tier one, then tier two would normally be about six to
eight players. Tier three is about the same eight players.
You have to incorporate the tiers into your draft strategy
knowing the relative scoring value of your positions as examined
in the article about analyzing your league called LAG
to win.

In however you tier, you need to establish groups of players
that you view as similar enough that the best and worst in
that tier carry relatively the same risk/reward. That depends
on subjective determinations, and yet that is nothing more
than what projections are anyway. If you honestly think that
your projections are so accurate that you can distinguish
the difference in players of only 50 yards in an entire season,
then maybe tiering is not for you. Then again, chances are
you have never followed your projections before or bothered
to look at how far off most of them fall.

The greatest advantage you can have in a draft is the ability
to build the optimal team by taking players which are the
best available and yet fit into your needs for starters. Particularly
in rounds two through seven, using tiers allows you to "see"
your draft as it unfolds and as positions are raided. It is
far more effective than becoming mired in comparing projections
for individual players across positions because you do not
often have the time to do that when the draft is underway.
You have to be able to make a quick decision that is the right
one and as we all know, drafts never unfold exactly like you
thought.

Tiering is every bit as valuable for auctions as well, since
player value is paramount. There is no need to spend huge
sums of salary cap dollars on one player if there are a couple
others still available and who could be had for less money.
You save in one spot to spend in another. Tiering is cannot
make up for bad player rankings, but it can turn good rankings
into gold.

And you know, you must know in your heart of hearts, that
your unnatural attraction to drafting David Boston just increased
the odds about 97% that the moron before you snaps him up.
We all hate that guy, the one that does not know what he is
doing and dresses funny and drinks Zima and laughs like a
horse on PCP and ... and ... DOH! I ONLY HAVE 15 SECONDS LEFT
TO MAKE A PICK!