Even now, a month after watching Nebraska manhandle the Texas offensive line and throw Longhorns quarterback Colt McCoy around like a rag doll in the Big 12 championship game, it’s hard to believe a team that gave up nine sacks will play for the national championship.

Nine sacks.

Without a doubt Texas was fortunate – some would say downright lucky – to get past Nebraska to win the Big 12 title and advance to tonight’s BCS national championship game against Alabama at the Rose Bowl – an Alabama team with every bit as good a defense as Nebraska, and 10 times the offense.

Which makes the task of picking the winner for tonight’s game seemingly easy.

On the surface, it doesn’t look good for Texas, which better hope it spent the past month correcting the offensive line problems that nearly got McCoy killed.

Because you can be sure Alabama coach Nick Saban, one of the great defensive minds in the game, has spent the past month breaking down every last Texas weakness, and has a plan in place to exploit each and every one of them.

Not to say the Longhorns don’t have a shot tonight – Alabama has played in its share of close calls this year – but it sure looks like everything is in place for the Crimson Tide to roll to their 13th national title, and first since 1992.

Let’s face it, the Longhorns were fortunate Nebraska wasn’t much of an offensive team, and lucky that instant replay was in place to put one last second on the clock to allow Hunter Lawrence the chance to kick a 46-yard field goal as time expired to give Texas a 13-12 victory.

Otherwise Texas would be home watching Cincinnati or TCU or Boise State play Alabama for the championship.

On the flip side, Alabama looked dominating while dismantling Florida in the Southeastern Conference championship game. And as we saw in the Sugar Bowl, when the Gators pummeled Cincinnati, Florida is no slouch. In fact, the Gators arguably are the second-best team in the country.

But here are the Longhorns, a bit frazzled but still unbeaten, back at the Rose Bowl and one win away from their second national championship in the past five seasons.

Much like in the 2005 season, when Texas was the decided underdog against USC in the title game, it will take an upset for the Longhorns to win the championship.

The win over the Trojans was an instant classic, but it took a superhuman effort by Vince Young for Texas to pull it off.

I can remember telling my USC friends, in the days leading up to the game, that the only worry they had was Young, but it was a big worry, because he was capable of single-handedly beating the Trojans.

They scoffed at the time, but as the world soon found out, that is exactly what Young did.

Unfortunately for Texas, Young is in the NFL, and while we like McCoy quite a bit as a drop-back passer, he doesn’t have the same intangibles Young brought to Pasadena four years ago – namely, the incredible playmaking ability with his legs to offset the pass rush and blitz packages Alabama is sure to bring.

Granted, Alabama doesn’t have the talent along the defensive line like Nebraska, which features the probable No. 1 pick in the NFL draft in tackle Ndamukong Suh.

But after struggling so mightily to block Suh and the Cornhuskers, it’s hard to imagine the Longhorns handling Alabama nose guard Terrence Cody and all the looks and blitzes Saban will throw at them.

The genius of Saban’s defense is the opponent never knows where the point of attack will initiate. The Crimson Tide do an excellent job of exploiting weaknesses, but they also consistently change up their configuration to confuse the quarterback and offensive line.

“They do a lot of misdirection stuff and do a lot of blitzing, and you’ve got to be ready for everything they throw at you,” Texas wide receiver Jordan Shipley said. “The main thing is we don’t ever really know, from looking at film, what we’re going to see, because it’s usually different.”

If Texas took anything from the Nebraska game, it’s that it can survive a game in which the offense is basically shut out.

But that was against a pedestrian offensive team. If the Longhorns similarly struggle to move the ball against Alabama, they’re liable to get blown out.

Again, this is tribute to the genius of Saban, who builds championship-caliber teams on both sides of the ball.

The Crimson Tide can control the clock with Heisman Trophy-winning tailback Mark Ingram, but also strike quickly with quarterback Greg McElroy throwing to Julio Jones, one of the best receivers in the nation.

The one notable weakness for Alabama is its penchant for slow starts offensively. In 13 opening drives this year, Alabama scored just one touchdown and kicked three field goals – and the lone touchdown was set up by a long kickoff return against Kentucky.

In SEC play, the Crimson Tide were especially bad in the first quarter, going scoreless on offense four times and managing just one field goal in three other games.

The Crimson Tide broke out a bit in the SEC title game, scoring a field goal and touchdown in their first two drives.

But the fact remains Alabama struggles early offensively, and if Texas can somehow exploit that and open an early lead, the Longhorns could make it interesting.

On the other hand, while the Crimson Tide usually start slowly, they’ve been tremendous closers this year, outscoring opponents 108-24 in the fourth quarter.

The fourth-quarter dominance, the defensive mastery of Saban, the running of Ingram and the offensive line woes of Texas just seem to add up to an Alabama victory.

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