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So, let's return to the topic of forgeries. Once again, if Hachijou was able to write ep3-6 stories, she was able to reach Beato's truth by ep1 and ep2.

The most strange thing about that is 07151129. Even now we still don't have any convincing theories regarding that, but Hachijou supposedly knew the meaning behind that number just from the original message bottles.

If I remember correctly, Hachijou does research new information and injects it into her story; like about Kyrie's pregnancy. So maybe she or whoever wrote EP3-4 found out about the money sent to the survivors' families...

Not to mention how were we supposed to guess from arc 1-2 that Eva was the only survivor in the "real" rokkenjima?
One more thing making me believe the future is also all a lie. 07151129, I used to think it was revelant... however now I do not.
I feel like the future scenes are filed with red herrings to make us believe the events of Rokkenjima are all some sort of super conspiracy theory alike Higurashi.

Ange's fragmented memory from arc 6 doesn't help... it's like her memory of arc 4 is limited to ... the written scenes of arc 4. Meaning she was also just a piece.

In arc 1-2 we probably whinned too much about how the entire crimes would be solved once the storm was over so it was unfair to not tell us the future result. That or we believed we'd get many clues from the future. In the end, I think the real clues hidden in the future are to make a parallel between Ange-Maria and Battler-Beatrice. Basically Maria's diary was the real important thing. Odd in a way, using scenes in the future that are at best uncertain to show us important events that occured before Umineko.

If I remember correctly, Hachijou does research new information and injects it into her story; like about Kyrie's pregnancy. So maybe she or whoever wrote EP3-4 found out about the money sent to the survivors' families...

And apparently Ange found a note book (revealed in episode 6) left behind by Kyrie with details about the whole thing. That sounds too convenient. Why did they reveal that now?

You forgot to mention the charm on Natsuhi's door. The only person who should've known about it is Jessica (aside from Natsuhi herself).

However we can take two scenes with 'Kumasawa watching from the shadows' as a hint regarding the other possible person who knew about the charm.

And she also might have known where to go in EP3 for the last 2 twilights involving her parents. She went straight there and Battler also found it strange. Stupid Battler dozzed off so Jessica had no alibi for these twilights.

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And apparently Ange found a note book (revealed in episode 6) left behind by Kyrie with details about the whole thing. That sounds too convenient. Why did they reveal that now?

If Hachijo Touya is the one that wrote 3-6 i believe she probably did it to eliminate certain other theories or check if her theory is correct. So the things that happened in EP3 (the siblings possibly commiting some murders, Maria dying early and other strange things) reinforced her arguments. EP4 was to eliminate any interference of other theories such as Kinzo is alive. And EP5, 6 to eliminate the person who might have drifted there and the possiblity of a 18th, to check whether her thoughts about the real nature of Beatrice were correct, the part about Battler's birthday, etc.

Don't forget that George was the one who suggested that they leave Maria when Rosa was hitting her, so Maria was alone when she received the first letter.

Also, I've stated this before:
Probably, Natsuhi was never meant to be a first twilight victim in Episode 1. Her door was vandalized the exact same way in Episode 2, when she didn't get the charm. I think that somebody (probably Kumasawa) painted it around 5-6 AM, without knowing about the murders.

Heeeeeeeeeeeeeey ! Bernkastel's letter was addressed to AuAu !
But...would it be too easy to say that the rules X,Y and Z are simplyX, Y and Z ?

I don't know for the rest, but I am sure that X is indeed related to red, because it was even said by Lambdadelta that X = A basis that doesn't need to be explained.
So far, I would said that the color text is the "embodiment" of these rules.
It's like the rules would be pyramids buried in sand, but the top of these pyramids can still be seen, and this "top of pyramid" is the color text.

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Lambda-Delta boasted that I will 'absolutely' not be able to win in this game board.
At that time, I paradoxically identified the rule X.

Or maybe X could be that Battler is the only one who can defeat Beatrice, but Lambda speech in EP6 would make no sense.

The problem then, is that the order of apparition of the color text is :RedBlueGold, but the rules would be X, Y and Z.
But if we think a be, Beato "heart" in EP3 is even stronger, Rule Y is Beato Heart, the love with Battler that is also the source of her magic : Believing, believing is also trusting, and it leads to love.
"Without love, it cannot be seen."

Then Z has a bad affinity with Bern because it changes its form...
Blue truth is the truth of the human world, and humans can change depending on what happens I guess...Z is probably like a thick fog, an infinity of possibility is what the blue is.

Well, I haven't discovered much with this theory for now because I just made it but I will seek some information about it later. The sin and the endgame are surly related to the rules too.

*take a spoon to dig and reveal those pyramids of rules*
It would be hard with CHOPSTICKS.

I might be wrong but I think like 90% of Beato's trick involves tricking us in relation to the time-scale of events.

For Maria's umbrella and the letter she NEVER claimed she got it from Beatrice in the time between when Rosa hit her and the time Rosa + Battler and cie went to find her (referring to arc 1 scenario only, but I could make similar arguments about the others).

Battler actually at first thought she was smart enough to carry an umbrella with her, meaning he wouldn't (for a reason or another) have noticed if she it had beforehand. The letter is even easier to conceal.

While I really like the idea of Nanjo having something to do with it, it is basically true that we don't even know that the letter and umbrella were delivered to Maria on the spot. Nobody sees it, and only once is anybody ever present when "Beatrice" arrives, and that's Rosa who is somewhat untrustworthy generally. Also note Kanon is skulking about the garden at that time. There's people who could do it, but Maria could also have had everything ahead of time.

The same is basically true of the "discord letter" that appears in the study. Somebody (whether Maria or George or Kumasawa or otherwise) had to already have that letter on hand before ever entering the study. Meaning they either intended everyone to go there to fabricate an excuse to send some people out (this all but necessitates someone in the ep1 study scene is a collaborator with the killer), or the letter was "insurance" in case anybody tried to hide in the study.

Meaning they either intended everyone to go there to fabricate an excuse to send some people out (this all but necessitates someone in the ep1 study scene is a collaborator with the killer), or the letter was "insurance" in case anybody tried to hide in the study.

In the latter case, it's better if the discord letter has been kept in the study in the first place. In fact, I'm still suspecting the discord letter in particular is not really related to murders or fake murders, and the epitaph solving plot stands neatly on it's own. I think it's an extra epitaph hint, prepared long beforehand together with the First Letter, the purpose of which is only and exclusively to get people to have an epitaph solving party. An "intellectual night" with high stakes but no real or perceived danger to life and limb.

Once the letter exists beforehand, it's very easy to "place" a letter without ever touching it and without even knowing you did - for example, if there's a tray or a book on the table covering it, moving it will reveal a letter, but you might not notice this happened until you take the next look at the table.

__________________

"The only principle that does not inhibit progress is: anything goes."
— Paul K. Feyerabend, "Against Method: Outline of an Anarchistic Theory of Knowledge"

This may not be as important, but in EP1, wasn't there a splotch of blood in the Dinner Room? This may be a clue or not, but it shows that there was definetly murder, however the culprit must have cleaned up the blood really well, as I doubt they dragged a bloodied corpse to the shed.

We know the study is off limits. This may or may not be tied to Kinzo's body, but generally speaking nobody should have any interest in going in there nor should they be permitted unless they are Natsuhi, Genji, or Nanjo. If the letter was pre-placed, any of those three could have done it (assuming that Nanjo was hanging out in the study at the times he claimed to be, anyway). Shannon/Kanon may or may not also be possible.

Why place the discord letter in the study if you aren't anticipating anyone will go in there? And if you are anticipating it, how do you know when, why, and who will be going in there and find it? The letter seems primarily useful in driving suspicion (Maria's explanation of the magic circle in particular). Suspicion seems only valuable if you already know ahead of time people would go to the study to hide, and that the group would be large enough to separate.

I see the following scenarios as possible:

The letter was always there, people just didn't find it. Kinzo intended it be used for something and never got around to it.

The letter was pre-placed earlier in the day, perhaps to be part of an "epitaph game." Maybe Kinzo was supposed to "vanish" and his study entered.

The letter was pre-placed earlier in the day, and Natsuhi was rehearsed to move people to the study at some point during the game. Natsuhi did so without realizing what was going on. Because the group was always intended to travel to the study, the letter placer knew ahead of time who would be reading it and under what circumstances.

The letter was placed on the spot in accordance with the script, perhaps by someone like Maria who would not realize it was inappropriate at the time.

The letter was placed on the spot in accordance with the script, by a person who knew full well that the murders were real but who wanted an excuse to either flush suspects out of the study or who wanted an excuse to leave the study themselves.

The letter was placed on the spot by a collaborator with the killer, who had the letter in case people would try to hide in the one place the killer does not have the freedom to enter (the study). This necessitates the collaborator remain with the group and always maintain an airtight alibi, which basically limits it to Jessica or George.

The letter was placed by the killer. Genji, Kumasawa, and Nanjo were faking it in the parlor in accordance with the script (and possibly trying to lure out the real killer when he/she arrived to "re-kill" them).

I see the following scenarios as possible:[list][*]The letter was always there, people just didn't find it. Kinzo intended it be used for something and never got around to it.

What about the letter was just placed by Natsuhi, Genji, Nanjo and Kumasawa and in collaboration? Including the act of sending them out the door afterwards. Although they were not thinking this would lead to murder?

That would then be "part of the script." If it's assumed nobody realized anyone was really dead (which means they believed the Eva/Hideyoshi murders and Kanon/Kinzo were both intentional, mind you), and the act exists to send the three out to be fake-murdered, then anybody involved can place it, because Natsuhi is freaking out on purpose.

It makes a lot of sense if you think about it, and look at the people she talks to and the conversations she overhears:

In ep1, she has that chat with her mother that she doesn't have anywhere else. Coincidentally, Natsuhi becomes the major driving force for the events of the next day. Was she recruited to play that role?

Hears about the Halloween stuff in ep2, is part of the group suggesting a party for Maria, and what do we get?

Obviously knows more than she's telling in ep4. She could very easily know how her "death" would appear if she was planning to fake it.

Is shut out of a lot of conversation and mobility by Erika in ep5, and is consequently stuck with the cousins. Who is the First Twilight?

In arc 1 Jessica gave me the feeling of being a Watson.
She often brings up half stupid points so that Battler begins to counter them. Very often Battler's reasoning wouldn't have begun if she hadn't mentioned some half baked idea beforehand (for example when she suggested Eva was stabbed from outside through the crack).

Also if we assume this is all a "play" going on (at least at first), it's interesting to think that when the letter appears at the table, at first everyone begins to talk about it's authenticity without caring much about it's content. After a bit, Jessica sorta brings it back foward by saying to Maria "... and she asked you to read it to everyone at the dinner?" - felt like she guided the conversation.

Also weird that in arc 3 it's like both she and Battler are buycutting the game until the near endgame. Also aside from arc 4's "everyone are dead except Battler" and arc 5's "She's dead by midnight the second day (but likely everyone else is), I think she's the only char whose's death is normally never said in red.

How about: There are four separate plans involved in the events of Rokkenjima. Each one requires a different aspect of Shkannon. Early on, those aspects have some sort of duel, and whichever one wins determines the story:

Been thinking it out and ... I really dislike Shkanontrice theories. It suggest things that ... ugh...

Let's forget Beato and Battler and take it more personal.
You are a 12 years old immature guy who just discovered puberty. You say random pick up lines at a girl you meet about once per year. You also say said random pick up lines at about any girls you meet, including your own cousins. Then you don't see that girl for the next six years. When you do meet her again you learn the following things gradually.

She's pretending to be big breasted and docile to tame one of your cousins into loving her, in truth it's all an act.
She's pretending to be a cold hearted BOY who crushed another of your cousin in the past and still entertains a possible relation with her.
She's trying to make you believe she's a witch and your ideal women. Because she sees you again she's ready to sacrifice both relationship with her cousins to be with you.

She showed you tales she made where she fantasizes about killing all your family in insane cruel ways. In the same tales she makes fun of your cousin's loves for the fake personas she uses.

She never even once feels vaguely bad about tricking your cousins.

You somehow figure out all of this, and now you're trying to convince me that you're the one responsible, that it's not her fault, and you decide to marry her without apologizing or even explaining anything to your cousins.

You claim it's okay because you both love each other and love is the answer to everything.

To me... this is what the Skanontrice theorist are trying to make me swallow. I could believe in Skanontrice... but then Id have to really hate that person. I don't think Battler would forgive such a person either. They keep saying that we cannot see the answer without love. To me Skanontrice needs to heavily look down on various characters to work, it's not an answer with love. It's an answer that only makes Beatrice an unforgivable crazy girl playing with everyone's emotions and who feels self justified about anything as long as "someone hurt her". In other words Skanontrice is ... a melodramatic story that I won't get into.

I'm not saying it's impossible for it to be the truth, of course I'm not blind to all the hints that have been thrown around. However if it is the truth then I'd really honestly believe Umineko is a fantasy story.

Yeah... let's say when Kinzo's beato died he created two homonculus from her single soul, splitting her into Kanon and Shannon. Somehow as that soul is reawakened they get the ability to merge into a single being. I personally think that makes more sense then the mystery perspective of Shkanontrice.

So I ask the Skanontrice theorist out. How is that an answer with love? All I see is contempt for a maid is made to bear all the sins of the story. Convenient isn't it? Battler is afraid from the start to find that the culprit is part of his family, so it's fine that it's a crazy manipulative and emotionally greedy maid that does it?

According to what Okonogi said, since Ange lacked love she thought Eva was a terrible and hateful person. However with love she could see Eva in a different light. The same love allowed Ange to see Kasumi (arguably a twisted and psychopath hag) as a pitiable person victim of her own circumstances.

The contempt you feel for shkanontrice without fully understanding her situation is what I'd call "lack of love", following Okonogi's and Ange's perspective.

It's not like I don't understand your pov, but my pov is different. Basically I turn it the other way around to say "because you judge shkanontrice as despicable you refuse to accept it", this can work as a metaphor of "without love it can't be seen".

But the other way around is not so straightforward, I mean it's "without love it can't be seen", not "with love you don't fall for traps". This "love" is meant to make us see something, but nowhere it was stated that "love" will prevent us from see something.

Anyway theories that claim that Shannon and Kanon are actually (physically) trying to kill each other how are they better? The things you listed are very trivial sins compared to murder.

Well, I don't necessarily believe in Shkanontrice, but I do believe that Shakanon is possible.

I know this idea has been tossed around:
Maybe Kanon and Shannon have had a duel before the game starts (akin to that of the Love Trials in EP6). The victor (lets say Shannon) feels sorry for the loser's love interest and dresses up as the other (in this case, Kanon).

And another character may be the culprit and it may have nothing to do with Shkanon at all. But that doesn't mean Shannon can't be Kanon on the gameboard.