Where Rubio Went Wrong

Harry Enten notes that Rubio has become less popular as he has become better-known nationally:

It’s not clear why Rubio has fallen. The decline in his popularity among adults corresponds almost perfectly with his push for immigration reform; his largest drop occurred in June as the Senate was debating comprehensive changes to U.S. policy. I wouldn’t argue that pushing for immigration reform made Rubio unpopular, but it did give him a lot of press. FiveThirtyEight has previously said that Rubio’s ideology ranks as quite conservative. It’s possible that Americans learned more about Rubio than just his views on immigration during that period.

I suspect that Rubio’s favorability has dropped for a few reasons. Following years of being oversold and built up as the walking embodiment of the solution to the GOP’s electoral woes, Rubio’s performance in the Senate in the last two years hasn’t lived up to the hype. Giddy Republicans used to refer to him as the “Republican Obama” and the key to winning a larger share of the Hispanic vote. No one says that anymore now that reality has set in. Many movement conservatives and Tea Party activists that initially rallied to him as one of their own became disenchanted with his immigration maneuvering. Then when he tried to retreat from the Senate immigration bill, he disappointed the bill’s supporters among party elites and “centrist” pundits. Hawks that used to find any excuse to promote him as a possible presidential or VP candidate discovered that his foreign policy speeches were underwhelming and vague, and many non-hawks found reasons in those same speeches to oppose him. Moderates and “centrists” that wanted to celebrate Rubio as a model of bipartisanship because of his support for the Senate immigration bill were then dismayed to watch as he hurriedly abandoned his earlier position. They then became even more disillusioned with him as he desperately tacked back to the right on any and every issue to repair the damage he had done to himself with conservatives. In short, Rubio has managed to annoy or disappoint many of his would-be supporters and admirers while antagonizing many others, and he did so under fairly close scrutiny from the national media, so it is not that surprising that he is viewed much less favorably than he used to be.

Immigration happened to be the main issue involved in most of these reactions, but it was really Rubio’s clueless handling of the politics of the issue that generated so much of the negative coverage he received over the last year and a half. My guess is that it was this negative coverage that has dragged his favorability down. When most people talked about Rubio back in 2011 and 2012, the coverage was generally positive and speculation about his political future was very favorable. This reached its apogee after Romney’s defeat when party leaders and some pundits were eager to “fix” the party’s weakness with Hispanic voters, and Rubio was identified as an ideal candidate to do just that. Ever since then, the story has been one of Rubio’s collapsing support among rank-and-file Republicans and the disappearance of the enthusiasm for his presidential aspirations just as he has started to express more interest in running. This isn’t entirely Rubio’s fault. He was ill-served by the early waves of unearned hero-worship and absurd boosterism during his first two years in office, and he has suffered from the party’s bad habit of over-exposing and over-promoting its newest national political talent.

The guy was a pretty boy from the start and what passed for substance was canned glop.

The notion that Mexicans, Dominicans and Puerto Ricans will be enthralled by an Americanized Cuban is quite naïve. It’s like assuming that California Vietnamese will vote for Bobby Jindal for ethnic reasons. Just silly.

Giddy Republicans used to refer to him as the “Republican Obama” and the key to winning a larger share of the Hispanic vote.

I live in Texas, and I have had the impression for some time that Hispanics of Mexican origin don’t really consider Cuban-Americans to be “real” Hispanics. I could be wrong to generalize, but it’s an attitude I’ve encountered a number of times.

It’s just that he fooled a bunch of folks who wanted to believe he was the new GOP darling. But it turns out that he is not that smart, isn’t a very good speaker, plays a little loose with the facts, and has ideas that have not been well thought out.

In my opinion you are fooling yourself if you believe the reason for Rubio’s deflation wasn’t solely because of his putting his face out there on the amnesty/immigration issue.

Wanna see other examples of significant deflation/becoming objects of Right hostility really only explicable by the issue? Think Paul Ryan, who didn’t even put his face out there all that much. Think John Boehner and the incredible abuse heaped his way now from the Rightward. Think of how even uber-pugnacious John McCain has had his nose pushed in on the issue and has withdrawn from same. And even Jeb Bush—the guy who needs the base the least— acknowledged that even *he* was very possibly dynamiting his chances at being the nominee with his pro-amnesty/immigration stance. (Which clearly seems about the only reason he’s not already jumped into the race feet-first.)

Full disclosure: as it made me happy to see all these folks get it in the neck because of their immigration stances my diagnoses that same was indeed the reason they got it in the neck might be colored by wishful thinking, but I don’t think so.

And I think this explains why the Party has been making quiet moves of late to given the backroom powers that be more power in the nomination process: Every promising new name, up-and-coming name, or even big name that’s stepped up and embraced amnesty has gotten creamed and it’s got them worried.

And if they succeed nonetheless in nominating anyone squishy on the issue they aren’t going to just see some 7-11 million missing Republican voters from the last election like Romney did (which very possibly cost him the election), it’s going to be more like 15-20 million missing Republican voters, and a sure win for the Dems.

Against my expectations at least—for long while after the election of Bush II I thought the Republican core constituency would vote for anyone who just kissed the flag and said they loved Jesus—this has become an acid test now for the Party and its public officials.

I think TomB is basically right about immigration amongst the Republican primary electorate. Which means that Sen. Rubio never had a chance, because the only way his play could make any sense at all was being pro-immigration. Which means, in turn, that all the people promoting the Rubio play were foolishly misunderstanding the requisites from Republican nomination.

The names that keep coming up from either aisle of the duopoly indicate that ossification of an intellectually extinct reflexive politics that has no application to the realities of the problems Americans face has gripped the political pandering class. How can it be those who claim to now be exceptional in all the world and demand obeisance and submission are only proving themselves dangerous dunderheads? How can an entire ruling class have taken such leave of its senses? Conservatives, of all persons, ought to be mindful of the historical reality, that those the gods will punish for hubris, first make mad.

What I never liked about the conservative opinion on Rubrio was his view on immigration. Most commenators assumed it simply Latino pandering and it was completely a liberal position. I always assumed his original immigration opinion followed that his parents were immigrants and he had sympathy for immigrant’s struggles. He was naturally inclined to his original immigration position. And a conservative can disagree his position on immigration but his position is not that unusal.

For all the Reagan conservative love, why have conservatives turned so much against his immigration policies?

Andrew: you might know all about Russian submarines, but you know little or nothing about the US, despite all your protestations of knowing far more than all US policy-makers combined. It’s one thing to defend Putin; it’s quite another to use your Russian national zealotry as a comparator to the US.

Larison: That Rubio has fallen is absolutely no surprise, and anyone who saw the idiotic cover of Time could have told you. He is a bimbo, simpliciter. He is ignorant, a blowhard, self-satisfied and lazy. He is exactly all that is wrong with the Republican Party, with bells and whistles.

And why exactly do you find it laughable to see U.S. stadiums packed with recent immigrants who allegedly come here with only love in their hearts for us and a desire to become one with us not just cheering on the team from their country of origin against the U.S. team, but heaping abuse, invective and etc. on the U.S. team to boot?

Presumably it’s along the same lines you find it laughable when the hispanic kids in a California high school just recently created such a threat of violence against anyone wearing any apparel with the American flag on it on Cinco de Mayo that the craven principal bans said American flag apparel, I’m really really interested in what’s so risible in stuff like this for you.

And just how far it extends too? How ’bout when the not-unusual happens and one of our border control people get shot or otherwise injured by a wanna-be Dreamer? Is it an all-out horselaugh for that, or just a little chuckle?

Once he responded to questions about the age of the earth with “I’m not a scientist, man,” he exposed himself as a flim flam man willing to focus group and hedge his way through a political career. Politics requires a certain amount of politicking, but statements like that are infuriating.

TomB ,
Many Hispanics come to the States for work, not necessarily to become US citizens.They still have family south of the border they’re supporting,they love their country of origin, & hope to return one day. Without proper documents & since border security has tightened, they end up stuck on this side of the fence indefinitely.
Sure, many migrants want to stay & become US citizens but I think it’s a bit presumptuous for us to assume they all do.And why shouldn’t they cheer their home team? America’s possibly the nation least enthused about soccer.I don’t know anyone personally who follows it. In Mexico & other countries, it’s huge.
I’m a big supporter of school uniforms.That would eliminate all the silly t-shirt issues that come up.

And why exactly do you find it laughable to see U.S. stadiums packed with recent immigrants who allegedly come here with only love in their hearts for us and a desire to become one with us not just cheering on the team from their country of origin against the U.S. team, but heaping abuse, invective and etc. on the U.S. team to boot?

I personally find it laughable because precisely no one would tell me that I would have to drop my loyalty to Houston sports teams, even though I haven’t lived in Houston for 30 years, or that I should’ve dropped my loyalty to Team USA (in whatever sport) even when I lived overseas.

I personally find it laughable because as an American soccer fan, I’ve seen Italian-Americans passionately support Italian clubs and the Azzurri first and foremost, even though their ancestors that came from Italy are long dead and they speak not a word of Italian.

In other words, it’s just sports fandom, it’s something that people adopt for any number of silly reasons, and if anyone tries to read more into a person’s heart or mind into that, they’re being silly in the extreme.

Just as a matter of genuine mystification, do you really believe that your reformulation of the complaint fools anyone?

That “heaping abuse, invective and etc.” by hispanics on the U.S. team equates with the “passionate support” your Italian-Americans have apparently given to some Italian teams?

And while I originally used the term “heaping abuse, invective and etc.” to describe the behavior I was referring to so as to be as neutral as possible, given this ridiculous “Italian-American” whitewash attempt let me expand on what that hispanic behavior has actually involved of late at these U.S. soccer events:

Raucous, huge sustain booing not just of the American team, but at the playing of the national anthem. Sustained chanting of obscenities at particular U.S. players. Throwing of various missiles and liquids, including urine, not only at U.S. players but at those in the stands who either were cheering for the U.S. teams or were wearing apparel that seemed to indicate that was who they favored, with some reports indicating that at one match some members of the U.S. Marine Band had urine thrown on them. Physical assaults otherwise on fans who appeared to be rooting for the U.S. team. And then, on one occasion even after the favored (Mexican) team had won and the time came for the recognition of the American team, once again a stadium filled with booing.

And here’s the perception of one such match by a Mexican-American gentleman even:

“Last Sunday I took my son to the Coliseum for what I thought would be a great opportunity to witness soccer at its best. What we witnessed instead was a shameful display of hooliganism, vulgarity and disrespect. Never had I been so ashamed to be a Mexican-American.

My son and I were pelted with beer, soda and God knows what else for having had the temerity to display an American flag and cheer for our team. I watched with dread as I saw my son’s eyes filled with confusion at the disrespect displayed while our national anthem was played even though we stood at attention for the Mexican anthem. I was further saddened to have him witness the physical and verbal abuse heaped on Team USA by the ‘fans.'”

So you know what, Cocky Bovine? I’ll give you a piece of free advice: Probably wise you not go out into any Italian-American neighborhoods and repeat your equation of how they have conducted themselves—ever—with damn near *any* of what I’ve related above.

Of course Rubio went wrong with his dishonest support of the senate amnesty bill. There can be no doubt about that, The GOP establishment attempt to ram it down our throats will cost them dearly. Nobody gave them the authorization to import twenty million people so that wages can be depresses. Amnesty will be the end of the GOP and ultimately the end of this country,

“My son and I were pelted with beer, soda and God knows what else for having had the temerity to display an American flag and cheer for our team. ”
***********************************************
At least they weren’t taken out by a commode:

A police officer in Recife, speaking on condition of anonymity, said fans ripped three toilet bowls from the restrooms at Arruda Stadium and tossed them from the stands. One of them struck a man identified as Paulo Ricardo Gomes da Silva, killing him instantly.”

Rubio will be lucky to hang onto his Senate seat, much less get anywhere near the White House. His know-nothingism in global warming in a state that rates to be largely underwater in worst-case scenarios is particularly loathesome.

Two items to address your overwrought complaints that I’m apparently not comprehending the grave threats to our culture that Mexican soccer fans present:

1. You could’ve saved all the linking. I’ve experienced all of that myself in person at USA-Mexico soccer games (note the plural here), and you really are telling Noah about the flood.

2. I’ve also experienced physical confrontations, violence, having garbage thrown at me, being spit, and such at college football rivalry games for having had the temerity of wearing the other school’s colors.

3. I have witnessed, though not been a part of, physical violence between fans of different club soccer teams in the German league. Two groups of people who are almost identical in every single way are reduced to throwing fists at each other because of different colored laundry.

All of these can be summed up as “people will often act like jackasses in the name of the team they root for, and those people often root for those teams for goofy reasons, like their old man was fan of that team.” Stop the presses.

That last thing is a key point. I know people who have zero connection with a certain college, like having actually attended, and yet will go to war for that college — and the use of “war” is not so much of an exaggeration — simply because their old man was a diehard fan of that college football team. The fans in item #3 act like utter idiots for their clubs, simply because they were raised in a different part of town or because their fathers raised them to cheer for their clubs and act like idiots for their club.

I also know people who were raised in this country, who are proud Americans who would die for this country, who… turn into stark raving lunatics for El Tri, simply because their fathers were stark raving lunatics for El Tri. During a recent World Cup qualifier between the USA and Mexico, there were shots of American servicemen overseas who were cheering loudly and boisterously when Mexico scored. There was a great deal of consternation about this at the time, but you know what? I don’t really give two rips if somebody who is signing up to take a bullet for the United States of America would rather cheer for the mercenaries wearing green jerseys than cheer for the mercenaries wearing whatever garish combination of red, white, and blue that Nike is foisting on us this year. That to me is no more a sin than liking bad pop music, which is an even more widespread sin among our service members.

And more to the point: I don’t try to attach any cultural significance to some jerks in the stands who want to act like antisocial jerks in the name of their team, whatever team that might be. If you want to wring your hands about how they’re being so unseemly to people that are supporting a team that have “USA” written on their shirts, be my guest, but you’re wringing your hands about a red-white-and-blue colored toy in the toy department of life. It ain’t real life.

You know something, Cocky, I think one has to take your point about this soccer business ain’t being real … to a point. Mass sports fans in general ain’t exactly known for their placid demeanors, nor their ability to resist getting caught up in the moment, as it were.

But you know something else? After awhile you just don’t care about the constant excuses. While your point can be taken about *some* of the behavior, what about the *booing* of the U.S. national anthem? What about that high school where kids wearing U.S. flag apparel were threatened on Cinco de Mayo?

And what about the idea that … sports’ nuttiness or not you’re either a citizen of this country or you have otherwise chosen to be here and enjoy its benefits and yet you go and *boo* our national anthem?

Just like one sees either the amnesty/open borders folks or even open illegal immigrants marching and *demanding* this or that, despite the fact that you can come here and get all the immediate free emergency and indeed beyond-that medical care you may need or want, and your kids get a free education to boot.

Explain it as you will, one notes you don’t regard their other behavior on the sporting field as anything less than boorish. So what about the national anthem booing? How come they get the excusifying pass for same and yet if someone says that every national anthem booer at those games oughta have their asses kicked out of the country on the next plane suddenly, my God how *extreme* that is? Where’s the … understanding there?

Moreover, how come we have to accept (based on no evidence that I’ve ever seen), that this kind of behavior doesn’t reflect “real life” for this immigrant population?

Here’s a quote from the undisputed Washington hero of the amnesty/open-borders folks Rep. Luis Guttierez:

” “I have only one loyalty,” he says, “and that’s to the immigrant community.”

Now, he didn’t make that statement at any soccer game. Nor does he seem to be any sports fan particularly. Instead he’s clearly the idol of the sort of folks we are talking about, and there’s his blatant, in-our-face proud-as-punch slap in our face. “I don’t give the slightest crap for you except insofar as what you do for my immigrants” he effectively said.

And lo, we are supposed to take it. Indeed, it’s so clearly regarded as non-remarkable that the major media didn’t even report it, just as it doesn’t report all sorts of other similar things. We are just instead supposed to ignore it, and ignore the soccer stuff and ignore the Cinco de Mayo stuff and when we don’t … ha ha ha how laughable we are. Ho ho ho it’s obviously not “real.” Paff paff paff too bad so sad then it turns out that Guttierez and friends meant exactly what they said …

You make a point (very well) about some of this sporting events business, and it has its good validity I’ll grant you that. But it’s limited. And it’s no use arguing that there isn’t other evidence suggesting that something “real” *is* at stake here that certainly isn’t laughable.

The soccer thing is quite laughable. Immigrant (and second generation) soccer fans worldwide root for their country of heritage against their “new” country. This happens everywhere where there are immigrant communities and international soccer matches. Why is it such a big deal in the USA? Germans don’t seem to go crazy that Turks (some German citizens, some not) in their midst root for Turkey against Germany in soccer matches.

Many immigrants are also among the “downtrodden” where they live. They have the worst jobs. Their neighborhoods are neglected by local authorities. They are always, pretty much, the underdogs. I think many, many Mexicans, Mexican Americans, Chicanos, etc, in the USA feel that way. But, every so often, the Mexican soccer team (or A Mexican soccer team, like a club team) comes to town to take on the Americans (or an American club team). And, on that day, if no other, the playing field is not only level, but “their” guys may even be the favorites. So what if they yell and even throw things and act out? Must we begrudge them their 90 minutes of acting out, of being the overdog? For one night, East LA gets to lord it over Malibu, downtown and the West Side.