alex speier

No easy solutions to Red Sox power outage in 2013

The admission came as little surprise. David Ortiz is almost surely done for a 2012 season that was shaping up to be one of his best.

The designated hitter was putting up a year that spit in the face of typical aging patterns. At 36, his production as a hitter ranked neck-and-neck with that of anyone else in the American League. He hit .318 with a .415 OBP, .611 slugging mark and 1.026 OPS along with 23 homers.

Though Ortiz has now missed nearly a third of a season since his right Achilles strain, his home run total is still tied for the Red Sox’ team lead. Among hitters with at least 300 plate appearances this year, Ortiz leads all American Leaguers in OBP and OPS. He leads the majors in slugging percentage.

For that reason, it comes as little surprise that his absence is palpable.

“He’s a difference-maker,” said Red Sox manager Bobby Valentine. “We are lacking the real threat of that home-run guy. Most teams have a couple of them. We’re lacking right now.”

(Valentine did allow that the Sox have guys “who will hit home runs before the year is over,” a claim that was backed, at least for a day, when Dustin Pedroia and Jacoby Ellsbury went deep in the Sox’ 4-3 loss to the Blue Jays.)

But, of course, the issue has not simply been the absence of Ortiz. The Sox have seen three of their foremost power hitters go by the wayside, as Will Middlebrooks (15 homers in 75 games -- a pace that projects to 32 over 162 contests) suffered his season-ending wrist fracture on August 10, while Adrian Gonzalez (15 homers in 123 games) is now in Los Angeles.

The fact that the Sox’ offense has been transformed by those absences and departures is hardly a revelation.

“[Adrian Gonzalez] is gone, Will is injured, and myself. It wouldn’t be a surprise if you see, [with] the power hitters not there, the team’s not going to hit for power,” said Ortiz. “It’s been crazy. Just being able to sit down and watch, I was sitting next to my boy Will yesterday and the guy looked [depressed], you know what I’m saying? It’s like, hey, don’t worry, we’re in the same boat.”

With those two in one boat, the rest of the team appears to be in another vessel that is taking on plenty of water. Consider:

Power offers one of the cleanest routes to a win. Through baseball, entering Sunday, teams that went deep three or more times in a game owned a 325-77 record (.808 winning percentage).

In 90 games with a healthy Ortiz and Will Middlebrooks and before the deal that sent Adrian Gonzalez to Los Angeles, the Sox had 13 games (14 percent) in which they went deep multiple times. In 51 games since Ortiz landed on the DL, they’ve done it just three times (6 percent). In 27 games since Middlebrooks landed on the DL, it’s happened once (4 percent). The Sox have not had a single instance of going deep three times in a game since Gonzalez joined the Dodgers.

The Sox simply haven’t had a path to easy victories with their depleted lineup. And so, the question looms: Is the power deficiency something that the team can address for 2013?

A few caveats. First, Jarrod Saltalamacchia has about as much raw power as anyone in the game. With 23 homers, he still has a shot at the Sox’ single-season record for homers by a catcher of 26. That said, his precise role and playing time with the team next year seems somewhat murky, given the presence of Ryan Lavarnway -- a catcher who has shown little power this year, in a considerable departure from previous seasons.

Cody Ross has 20 homers in 109 games -- which would project to 30 in 162 contests. If the Sox re-sign him, he’d continue to provide a power threat. Jacoby Ellsbury, of course, has 30-homer potential, and Dustin Pedroia has established 15-20 homers as his typical output.

And, of course, there is an enormous likelihood that the Sox re-sign Ortiz, with one major league source suggesting that there is “no chance” that the team lets its longtime middle-of-the-order institution leave as a free agent. If healthy, as underscored this year, he represents an elite power threat.

Still, with Gonzalez gone, the Sox don’t have the same sort of middle-of-the-order threats that defined them for years. The combinations of, for instance, Ortiz/Manny Ramirez, Ortiz/Kevin Youkilis, Youkilis/Jason Bay and Ortiz/Gonzalez were notable not just for their raw power but also for their disciplined approaches that resulted in high on-base percentages and wilted opposing pitchers.

And the reality is that there are very few players in all of baseball who combine elite power with above-average plate discipline, and almost none who are free agents. In 2006, there were 30 players who had 30 or more homers with an OBP of .350 or higher. That number has trended steadily down, to the point where just 12 players this year are on pace to reach both of those benchmarks. If that projection holds, it would be the fewest players with 30 homers and a .350 OBP or better (not counting the strike season of 1994) since there were just five such players in 1992.

Among the 26 players who are on pace for 30 or more homers this year, just two (Josh Hamilton, Adam LaRoche) will be free agents, and only one (Hamilton) is posting an OBP over .350.

Hamilton’s performance has made it likely that he will command precisely the sort of megacontract that the Sox seem inclined to eschew in the aftermath of the deal that sent Gonzalez, Carl Crawford and Josh Beckett to LA.

LaRoche and the Nationals have a $10 million mutual option, but the 32-year-old seems likely to command a higher dollar figure and multiple years given his production this year. There should be considerable interest in him as a free agent as well.

Beyond Lavarnway and Middlebrooks, meanwhile, the Sox are probably about another year away from graduating another homegrown power hitter to the majors. Both Bryce Brentz (23 and now in Triple-A) and Xander Bogaerts (19, having recently concluded his year with a month in Double-A) have considerable power potential, with Bogaerts also showing the pitch recognition and discipline to post high on-base numbers.

But with those two having a likely big league ETA as regulars of no sooner than late-2013, the Sox will be forced to seek creative offseason solutions to their power outage.

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