Monday 2nd June: Weekly technical outlook and review.

[jamiesocial]

EUR/USD:

Weekly TF

The last weekly forecast reported that we should be on our guard for active buyers within the demand area at 1.34770 – 1.36771, where price is currently trading. A bullish reaction has been seen, however not with conviction, and has formed what some traders call an indecision candle.

Price still remains capped between the demand area just mentioned and supply above at 1.42470 – 1.38580.

Daily TF.

Price is presently trading between the S/R flip level resistance at 1.36432 and demand below at 1.34470 – 1.35557 which, do not forget, is deep within weekly demand at 1.34770 – 1.36771.

A rally towards the S/R flip level resistance (level above) happened on Friday, with a slight bearish reaction being seen, this may explain why the weekly candle had no buying conviction.

If we see a positive close above the S/R flip level resistance, expect sellers to be seen above in and around supply at 1.37342 – 1.36951.

4hr TF.

Today is notoriously a slow-moving one, nonetheless, we have a few high-impacting news announcements today, so, as always, be on your guard!

Sell orders are seen at the smaller supply just above 1.36542 with stops set just above at 1.36741, targeting the round number 1.36000, the reasoning behind this is, today, price will more than likely trade within where price is currently capped (Supply: 1.36513 – 1.36432 Demand: 1.35623 – 1.35984).

Buy orders are seen at the demand area below at 1.35984, with stops set below at 1.35583, with a safe target above at 1.36432 for the same reasons as the sell orders.

The R.R is not fantastic on these trades, but this is what the markets is currently offering at the time of writing, and keep in mind, movement may be slow today.

Orders:

Buy(s) at: 1.36984

Stop(s) at: 1.35583

Target(s) at: 1.36432

Sell(s) at: 1.36542

Stop(s) at: 1.36741

Target(s) at 1.36000

GBP/USD:

Weekly TF.

A close below the previous week’s candle low was seen last week, breaking price back into the long-term consolidation area at 1.67980 – 1.42273. As per this timeframe, it seems sellers have taken control, and a fakeout above the long –term consolidation area (levels above) has likely happened, consequently, watch for the possibility of lower prices this coming week.

Daily TF.

The low (marked with a black circle) 1.67353 has been consumed, stopping out the majority of the buyers along the way. Taking into consideration our weekly analysis above regarding lower prices being possible, the daily timeframe shows higher prices may have to happen for pro money to collect liquidity from the stacked supply areas above at 1.69963 – 1.69514/1.69210 – 1.68697 before a drop is seen to the daily S/R flip level at 1.66631.

4hr TF.

Price faked the demand area south at 1.67201 – 1.67350 and reacted beautifully off of the round number 1.67000. Price is now capped between the round number just mentioned and supply above at 1.68158 – 1.67828.

If we see a break above supply (levels above), price could be forced to test oncoming supply at 1.68822 – 1.68708. A break below demand (levels above) will see prices likely testing the daily S/R flip level at 1.66631 (as seen on the daily timeframe), before hitting 4hr demand at 1.65638 – 1.65827.

Buy orders are seen below the round number (levels above) at 1.66906 with stops being set at 1.66534 which is just below the daily S/R flip level (marked with a black circle) mention already, we are targeting 1.67828 as price will likely trade within where price is capped for today anyway(levels below).

Sell orders are seen at 1.67828 with stops being set above the supply area at 1.68216, targeting the round number below at 1.67000. Again, similar to the Euro, the R.R is not great but this is what the market is offering currently.

Orders:

Buy(s) at: 1.66906

Stop(s) at: 1.66534

Target(s) at: 1.67828

Sell(s) at: 1.67828

Stop(s) at: 1. 68216

Target(s) at 1.67000

AUD/USD:

Weekly TF:

2 weeks ago, price looked very promising for a decent sell off from the S/R flip area at 0.93718, but last week did not even manage a lower low, and traded within the previous week’s candle. As per this timeframe, there is yet to be a decision made on where price may be heading next.

Something to bear in mind, where is the biggest profit target for pro money, above to supply at 0.97576 – 0.95821 or below to demand at 0.86601 – 0.88258? At the time of writing it is clearly below at the demand area.

Daily TF.

Very similar to the weekly timeframe, it’s very difficult to see a possible direction even on the daily timeframe as price is trapped trading between supply at 0.94468 – 0.93758 and demand at 0.92054 – 0.92633. The only clue we have, is the circled wick above, which likely consumed enough sellers for a break above supply (levels above) to occur, but that has yet to happen.

A break below this demand area could force price to test the daily S/R flip level below at 0.91446.

A break above daily supply (levels above) could still see price testing fresh daily supply at 0.95434 – 0.94862 as reported in the weekly forecast completed on the 12th May.

4hr TF.

Price is currently capped between the D/S flip area above at 0.93345 – 0.93186 and the S/D flip area at 0.92576 – 0.92774, incorporating the round number 0.93000 in between.

A break above may force price to test supply at 0.93729 – 0.93575, likewise, a break below may see price testing demand at 0.92037 – 0.92203.

The small area where price is presently capped between leaves little room for profit, so buy orders are set at the lower demand at 0.92203 with stops beneath the round number (0.92000) at 0.91942, targeting 2 areas: 1. 0.92576 and 2. 0.93186 giving a better overall R.R

The sell orders are set at supply above at 0.93575 with stops above at 0.93767, targeting, again, 2 areas: 1. 0.93345 and 2. 0.92774, again, giving a better overall R.R than we would get if trading the small range.

Orders:

Buy(s) at: 0.92203

Stop(s) at: 0.91942

Target(s) at: 0.92576/0.93186

Sell(s) at: 0.93575

Stop(s) at: 0.93767

Target(s) at 0.93345/0.92774

USD/JPY:

Weekly TF.

Price had not managed to close below the S/R flip level at 101.254, so higher prices are still more likely, as per this timeframe. Last week’s candle was unable to close above the previous weekly close (101.915), with price closing lower at 101.779; however, a higher high was still seen last week at 101.427 leaving some hope for some bullish action this coming week.

On this timeframe we can see more information, price formed 2 bullish pin-bars on Thursday and Friday, what might they both mean? Keeping in mind, we’re trading at higher-timeframe demand (weekly S/R flip level support [101.254]) and we’re within daily demand at 100.777 – 101.676, these pin bars were likely pro money collecting unfilled buy orders for a possible rally in price sometime this week.

Ideally, what we want to see happen is for price to break above supply at 101.886 – 101.778, then consume the next supply at 102.365 – 102.128, this would possibly clear the path for a decent profit target, but remain aware, the higher of the two supply areas just mentioned (102.365 – 102.128), will likely still have active sellers within it to deal with first

Price will likely consume supply at 101.886 – 101.778, then retrace to where buy orders set at 101.472 with stops below at 101.324, targeting two areas: 1. 102.000 and 2. 102.128.

Sell orders are currently set at 102.128, as price will likely spike through the round number 102.000 triggering the orders. The stops are set just above the supply area at 102.387 targeting 2 areas: 1. 101.472 and 2. 100.927.

Orders:

Buy(s) at: 101.472

Stop(s) at: 101.324

Target(s) at: 102.000/102.128

Sell(s) at: 102.128

Stop(s) at: 102.387

Target(s) at 101.472/100.927

EUR/GBP:

Weekly TF.

Price is currently trading deep within demand at 0.80848 – 0.81668, this is the third touch of this area since its first touch back on 19/1/2014. Most of the buyers should have been triggered in long now, only time will tell whether the buyers can maintain any sort of bullish strength.

Price is capped between supply at 0.84000 – 0.83286 and the demand area mentioned above.

Daily TF.

The price action on this pair has always been relatively clear. Demand at 0.80848 – 0.81197 is the deepest area on this timeframe within the weekly demand area (0.80848 – 0.81668 – seen above). What’s interesting here, is the daily demand area just mentioned has been consumed with a spike below (marked with an arrow), meaning we may see lower prices this week from where price is currently trading at (supply at 0.81819 – 0.81430).

And here is what the demand area looks like to the left, marked with an arrow:

4hr TF.

This pair is trading between the lowest of the 3 stacked supply areas at 0.81580 – 0.81512, and demand below at 0.81053 – 0.81171.

Sell orders are set at 0.81512 with small stops above at 0.81605, targeting the base of demand below at 0.81171.

Buy orders are set at 0.81171, with stops below at 0.80985, just below the round number 0.81000; the target is set at the base of supply at 0.81512.

Price will likely remain trading between where price is currently capped; a break of either area on this pair is very unlikely today.

Orders:

Buy(s) at: 0.81171

Stop(s) at: 0.80985

Target(s) at: 0.81512

Sell(s) at: 0.81512

Stop(s) at: 0.81605

Target(s) at 0.81171

USD/CAD:

Weekly TF.

Price has completely consumed the resistance level at 1.11230, which as per this timeframe is the last obstacle (potential sellers) up to major supply at 1.17230 – 1.15410.

However, as we can see, there were a lot of higher-timeframe sellers at resistance (level above), and price is possibly retracing to the most logical demand area below at 1.05883 – 1.07274, due to this selling pressure.

Price is capped between supply at 1.17230 – 1.15410 and demand at 1.05883 – 1.07274.

Daily TF.

As per this timeframe, price is trading between minor support at 108142, and the lower of the two stacked supply areas at 1.10039 – 1.09356. Price will likely break/consume the minor support area just mentioned sometime this week, then likely sell hard towards demand at 1.05883 – 1.06779, which is located deep within weekly demand at 1.05883 – 1.07274 (shown on the weekly chart above).

4hr TF.

A closer inspection on the 4hr timeframe shows price is caught trading between supply at 1.09089 – 1.08844, incorporating the round number 1.09000 within, and two stacked demand areas below at 1.08142 – 1.08330/1.07903 – 1.08286. No break of either area has yet to be seen.

Today, price will likely remain trading between the two areas mentioned above, but a break of the demand area may happen early this week, so no buy orders are to set as it is not worth the risk.

Sell orders are set at 1.08844 with stops above at 1.09112, targeting the base of the weekly demand area at 1.07274 (seen on chart 2 below) as there’s very little stopping price from dropping once the 4hr demand areas are consumed (levels above).

Here is price to the left; the circled area resembles the top of the weekly base demand area for reference purposes.

Orders:

Buy(s) at: N/A

Stop(s) at: N/A

Target(s) at: N/A

Sell(s) at: 1.08844

Stop(s) at: 1.09112

Target(s) at 1.07274

USD/CHF:

Weekly TF.

Stacked demand is seen at 0.82750 – 0.85500 and 0.85670 – 0.88360, whilst stacked supply is also seen above at 1.00540 – 0.99190 and 0.99710 – 0.97460.

Price has been relatively bullish on this timeframe over the past few weeks, reacting off of the higher of the two stacked demand areas at 0.85670 – 0.88360.

Let’s see what information the lower timeframes has.

Daily TF.

A bearish reaction has been seen at supply (0.90381 – 0.89392), a retracement to the S/R flip level at 0.88501 is possible, if the sellers have the strength.

A break above this supply area (levels above) could force price to test supply at 0.91563 – 0.90844 because of the circled wicks likely resembling supply consumption, thus clearing the path for buyers.

Taking all of this into consideration, we still have to remember we have just reacted off of higher-timeframe weekly demand at 0.85670 – 0.88360 (shown on the weekly chart), so do not go selling just yet!

4hr TF.

The demand area at 0.89375 – 0.89459 has been consumed with the majority of the buyers getting stopped out. From here, price may rally to supply above at 0.90381 – 0.90033 (chart 2 shows how good this levels looks, marked with an arrow) with the big figure 0.90000 just below, to push prices south into 4hr demand at 0.88973 – 0.89168.

Sell orders are set at the round number 0.90000 with stops placed just above supply at 0.90398, targeting the demand are base below at 0.89168.

Buy orders are set at 0.89168 with stops being set just below the demand area at 0.88942, targeting the round number 0.90000. The reason for this is simply because price may not reach the supply area (levels above) above and decide to drop to demand before rallying, thus allowing flexibility.

Chart 1:

Chart 2:

Orders:

Buy(s) at: 0.89168

Stop(s) at: 0.88942

Target(s) at: 0.90000

Sell(s) at: 0.90000

Stop(s) at: 0.90398

Target(s) at 0.89168

XAU/USD (GOLD)

Weekly TF.

Gold is currently trading within a range, supply being seen at 1495.00 – 1419.68, and demand at 1156.85 – 1194.53. Gold has been trading within this range since 2012 with a break of either area yet to be seen.

Let’s look at the lower timeframes to see if there are any opportunities on the horizon.

Daily TF.

Price is now trading in and around demand at 1238.51 – 1254.97 consuming buy orders as it trades deeper south. If we see a bullish reaction here, price may rally to the S/R flip level above at 1277.36, or at a push, the supply area above at 1392.05 – 1361.79.

If a break of this demand area happens, price will likely drop relatively hard to the support level below at 1182.01 as price action to the left is very messy, with no logical demand available on this timeframe.

4hr TF.

Near-term supply is seen at 1268.03 – 1260.87 and near-term demand being seen below at 1231.56 – 1237.57 just below daily demand at 1238.51 – 1254.97(as shown on the daily chart above).

Sell orders are seen at 1260.87 with stops being set above supply at 1268.99, targeting the demand base at 1237.57. This order may not get triggered due to their being no logical demand to the far left (as shown on chart 2 below) to push prices north. Look at the price action depicted with a trendline on chart 2, the majority of the buyers have been consumed, leaving price a clear path down to demand at 1231.56 – 1237.57.

Buy orders are seen at 1237.57 with stops being set below at 1230.48, targeting the supply base at 1260.87.

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