Editorials

How could Kevin Rudd so badly misread the politics of climate change?

By Phillip Toyne

Kevin Rudd is the latest of a long
line of Labor Leaders who have misread the importance of the environment to the
electorate or at least critical parts of it.Labor has been complacent in the belief that, whatever its
shortcomings in looking after such things as the forests, the oceans and waters
of the country, it will always be rated higher than the Coalition.This is their view that green voters
have nowhere else to go but back to them, even if it goes via a Greens Party
protest vote.There has been some
justification for this in the past.Graham Richardson famously constructed a green preference strategy that
saw Hawke re-elected in 1990 with a minority two party preferred vote.At the last federal election Greens
Party preferences flowed approximately 80% to the ALP, so shouldn’t the Prime
Minister relax in the knowledge that he continues to have the green protest
vote captured? I don’t think so.

For a start, we are seeing the rise
and rise of the Greens.Its
support in the polls has reached the high teens - all its increases coming from
the Labor vote.The defectors are
angry.The Greens will hold the
balance of power in the Senate after the election.At least two Labor Ministers in inner city electorates are
seriously at risk of losing to Green opponents.The Coalition has gained little benefit from this (confirming
the view that they continue to trail Labor as better on the environment).

Kevin Rudd may be battling on a
number of fronts now, with the Resources Super Profit Tax keeping him awake at
night, but it was abandoning of the emissions trading scheme (CPRS) in such an
incredible way that started the mudslide in the PM’s support and starkly called
into question his courage, his credibility and his political judgment.And it wasn’t just with lefty ‘tree
huggers’.It was across the
spectrum.I have been accosted by
teachers, public servants, business people, students, almost everyone bewildered
and angry at the back down.Even
those cynical about the science of climate change were angered by the lack of
leadership shown by the government.Business may not have liked the CPRS but it needed the certainty of a
legislated scheme in order to guide investment decisions and to set a course to
a low carbon economy.Exacerbating
the uncertainty was its premature decision to scrap its highly successful
voluntary carbon trading scheme, Greenhouse Friendly.This winds up at the end of this month, leaving companies
like Qantas, BP, Origin, Greenfleet and others heavily reliant on its
verification protocols without a substitute to validate offerings such as ‘carbon
offset’ flights.

Interestingly, these same people were
more willing to forgive the insulation installation stuff up, seemingly taking
the view that it was a worthwhile objective badly executed.

The next government will either have
to match the opposition in a ‘race to the bottom’ on climate change and other
environmental issues or deal with the Greens, which means substantially greening
itself.If, as the Prime Minister
has said, “that climate change is the greatest moral challenge of our time”,
then it must deal with the Greens.

Australia is the only country, post-Copenhagen, that is
taking significant backward steps from the much needed policy and economic
reform on climate change. I think most voters understand this. Shelving putting
a price on carbon and an emissions trading scheme reduces the positive role
that Australia could play in global climate negotiations which will ultimately
increase the long term economic risks to Australia. As the Garnaut Review
showed, of all the OECD countries, Australia is the most vulnerable to the
negative impacts of climate change and thus has the most to lose. Only
purposeful domestic policies and credible targets from both major parties will
save our reputation, ensure that further business opportunities are not lost and
minimise long term economic risks.

I don’t think it’s too late for Kevin Rudd to pull back from
the brink.He can and should
announce climate change policy, which will restore some of his credibility with
the electorate and global leaders.It would convincingly put daylight between Labor and the Coalition on the
critical environment issue and would make the stakes too high for disaffected
Labor voters to stage a “pox on both their houses” protest.

Limiting the global average temperature increase to a
maximum of 2°C compared to pre-industrial levels, as agreed by all nations at
Copenhagen, will require urgent and transformative change. This is why the
European Commission has urged EU nations to hike their targets from 20 to 30
per cent by 2020, saying the costs and risks to industry are less than
previously estimated. Treasury modelling showed that economic and jobs growth
remained strong for Australia even if Australia committed to achieving 25 per
cent cuts by 2020 and 90 per cent cuts by 2050. This is the message the Prime
Minister needs to be giving Australians and calling on them to join the
government to make the changes in the national interest.

Putting a price on carbon through an emissions trading
scheme is the most efficient way to reach these targets. Over 30 countries and
10 US states have already put a price on carbon through implementing emissions
trading schemes and other countries are in the process of doing so. Since the
Opposition is currently unwilling to support this approach, the Government
should support the recommendation in the Garnaut Review to implement, in the
interim, a AUD$20 per tonne levy on carbon in Australia (a carbon tax). This
approach of putting a AUD$20 per tonne levy/tax on carbon has been sensibly
proposed by the Australian Greens in the Senate and has received widespread
support including by 72 per cent of Australians according to a Galaxy poll. Kevin
Rudd can reverse the slide.He can
act decisively on Climate Change and meet community expectations and provide
the leadership the country so urgently needs.

Phillip Toyne is one of Australia's best known environmentalists and
is currently a director of EcoFutures, an Australian-based
international policy firm developing sustainable strategies with
business, government & civic leaders.