Ask an average Italian what percentage of the country’s population was born abroad and the answer you’ll get — according to the research firm Ipsos Mori — is 26 percent. The actual number is 9.5 percent.

Similarly, 11 months after a sudden, lasting drop in irregular sea arrivals to Italy, 51 percent of Italians still believe the number of migrants arriving in Italian ports is "similar or higher" than before, according to a recent survey published by the newspaper Corriere della Sera. The truth: Arrivals are almost 80 percent lower than they were nearly a year ago.

The problem is not unique to Italy. Across Europe, and indeed the world, the dominant political discourse has become increasingly dissociated from reality. The Ipsos Mori survey found similarly inflated perceptions about the foreign-born population in France, Germany, Belgium and the Netherlands. And, according to another recent study, Germans estimate the unemployment rate among immigrants at 40 percent. The true figure is less than 8 percent.

Despite a proliferation of widely available and ever more accurate data, public perception on immigration continues to be shaped by politicians who happily ignore the facts — or bend the numbers to fit their stories. And the perception they shape is ultimately expressed in both policies and political outcomes.

Just look at the headlines. The number of irregular crossings between Germany and Austria has plummeted, but that hasn’t stopped the phenomenon from sparking a political crisis in Berlin and Brussels. And despite overwhelming evidence that the biggest driver of migrants across the Mediterranean are conditions back home, the European political discourse remains dominated by the idea that NGO rescue operations are a significant pull factor.

The temptation is to hide behind numbers, dismissing skeptical voices as uninformed, and thus not worthy of attention. This has not worked in the past, and it will not work today.

The devaluation of data has critical implications for policymaking; its impact is even being felt in the traditionally technocratic realm of long-term planning in the European Union. In its proposal for the 2021-2027 Multiannual Financial Framework (the bloc’s seven-year budget), for example, the European Commission has proposed nearly tripling the amount of money devoted to asylum and migration, from €13 billion to €35 billion.

But while funds for securing the EU’s external borders will nearly quadruple (from €5.6 to €21.3 billion), money devoted to integration — an area that experts agree is essential for the long-term management of immigrants — will most likely remain at current levels. This is a direct reflection of pressure created by politicians who have zeroed in on closing the bloc’s external borders, despite the fact that new arrivals are down and a long-term solution requires attention to integrating those who stay.

For technocrats accustomed to being armed with facts and figures, the triumph of political narratives over hard fact presents a real challenge. The temptation is to hide behind numbers, dismissing skeptical voices as uninformed, and thus not worthy of attention. This has not worked in the past, and it will not work today.

The situation has reached a dangerous impasse, as evidenced by recurring standoffs between countries, like Greece and Italy, where immigrants are most likely to enter the EU, and those, like Germany and Austria, more worried about migrants traveling between countries. Loud voices calling for radical solutions to perceived problems — divorced as they may be from fact — are attractive to voters not only because they play into their fears, but because they speak to their desire for someone to take charge and “fix” the situation.

Liberal minds need to wade into the debate, not shy away from it. But there is also a need to change tack in terms of the counternarratives that we employ.

Politicians and experts need to show much more empathy when it comes to the opinions and beliefs of ordinary people. Fears and doubts need to be understood — not dismissed. This takes time and patience, but the center is much less polarized than we often believe it to be.

For example, if a country is asked whether “it is right” to welcome foreigners, the response is likely to be highly polarized — and the political response highly polarizing. But try asking a more subtle question: Which do you prefer, a foreigner with no residence permit, unable to find legal work and thus more likely to fall prey to criminal organizations, or a regular, tax-paying immigrant? And a possibility of finding common ground emerges.

Tapping into fear has always been easier than trying to find viable solutions, but that should not stop liberal-minded politicians from trying. The room for calm public discourse may have shrunk, but there is still plenty of space for data and facts. We just need to use them more carefully — and more compassionately.

Matteo Villa is a research fellow at the Italian Institute for International Political Studies’ migration program. Follow him on Twitter @emmevilla.

Related stories on these topics:

J C

The immigration problem is multifaceted, no doubt. However, instead of writing holier than thou articles now, where was the establishment for the past 10-15 years? Survey after survey showed that in general Europeans wanted lower illegal immigration levels. One of the main problems with the illegal immigration is that taxpayers tend to pick up the tab for upkeep of the migrants as opposed to legal migrants who tend to find jobs, acclimate and become productive members of society. Despite this, we continue to get fed with articles that importing more people is good for our infrustructre, health system, school system, etc. Yes, it makes perfect sense that if you have more people fighting for a smaller piece of pie (since the pie continues to be shrunken by ongoing austerity policies) that everyone will be better off. When that no longer works, we get an exercise in selective facts picking such as only 8% of immigrants are unemployed in Germany. Well guess what, if you still classify the 1 million that showed up after 2015 as asylum seekers, and not as migrants, than yes you will get that 8% unemployment rate. Manipulation of numbers like that only reinforces electorates’ distrust of establishment. Having said that, establishment has slowly discredited itself in Europe with predictable results. I definitely will not shed a tear as they had their chance to fix the problem, however elected not to or made it even worse.

Posted on 6/27/18 | 5:16 AM CET

Arturo A Costantino

This is really pathetically self serving.

Posted on 6/27/18 | 5:51 AM CET

glasspix 1

This article is an insult to the thousands of European victims of terrorism. In Germany alone there were 39.000 victims of crimes committed by people of migrant background (stuttgarter-nachrichten.de) last year, who are you trying to deceive by these bogus statistics?

Posted on 6/27/18 | 8:24 AM CET

Violetta Cossanacameni

“Ask an average Italian what percentage of the country’s population was born abroad and the answer you’ll get — according to the research firm Ipsos Mori — is 26 percent. The actual number is 9.5 percent.”

Well, the average respondent does not think too much about the formulation of the question. What is exactly “percentage of the country’s population born abroad”? If two ‘population members’ (does it mean citizens? residents?) of, let us say, African origin have a child born in Arezzo, is this child considered to belong to those 9.5%? For a statistician no. For an average respondent, such child is also considered a migrant. Technically incorrect, but… So this might be the reason for those 26%.

The same story is “Germans estimate the unemployment rate among immigrants at 40 percent. The true figure is less than 8 percent.” Again, all immigrants are thrown into the same pot. An informatics-specialist from India together with a Flüchtling from Afghanistan. For the whole pot 8% is true, as it includes people who are fully integrated into the society. For those, which are really sensed as immigrants, maybe even 40% is an underestimate.

Life is complicated…

Posted on 6/27/18 | 8:41 AM CET

Violetta Cossanacameni

and one remark more:
“Which do you prefer, a foreigner with no residence permit, unable to find legal work and thus more likely to fall prey to criminal organizations, or a regular, tax-paying immigrant?”

This evokes an impression that immigration is a natural phenomenon, something like rain or UV-irradiation, something that cannot be avoided.

Maybe the most reasonable answer to this question would be – neither nor.

Posted on 6/27/18 | 8:46 AM CET

GE0RG1 G10RG1

GE0RG1. . REQUIRE DEPOSIT RATIONING IN EU NOW AS LEAVING DEPOSITS FROM ITALY , SPAIN CAUSE TARGET 2 FROM GERMANY TO HIT 1 TRILLION . NOT YOU TO PAY FOR LEFT DEPOSITS WITH YOURS , WITH 160 % TO GDP DEBT , ITALY CANNOT EVEN GUARANTEE SMALL DEPOSITS. EU POLITICIANS SAY NO ONE IS PUNISHED LATELY IN US, EU. CHECK ANTOIN MURPHY HISTORY OF ECONOMIC THOUGHT TO SEE IF SOME 30% OF FINANCIAL EU MINISTERS ARE PUNISHED WITH BIG HISTORY DATA. SEARCH WHO IS BEHIND POLITICIANS IN EU , USA. ASK MERKEL FOR CRASHES IN PUBLIC AND TRAINS THAT ARE CORRELATED WITH POLITICIANS LOSING TRUST IN DE , FR, SWISS AND PEG, AUSTRIA AND BAD DEBTS, EASTERN EUROPE AND DE INVESTMENTS. DOES DE , FR INFLUENCE IT, ES, GR , CEE POLITICIANS? MERKEL RUNS FROM RESPONSIBILITY FOR NOW AS THERE IS DEBT OF SOME 1 TRILLION DOLLARS AUSTRIA CANNOT SERVICE WELL INVESTED MAINLY IN CEE, ALSO SOME 1 TRILLIONS TARGET 2 GIVEN TO OTHER EU COUNTRIES TO SUBSTITUTE LEAVING DEPOSITS DIFFICULT TO COLLECT BACK , AS WELL AS GERMANY BANKS LOST A LOT OF DEPOSITS THAT THE NEXT GOVERNMENT HAS TO ADMIT TOGETHER WITH A LOT OF ILLEGALLY PRINTED MONEY BY ECB THAT LEAD TO HYPERINFLATION SPIRAL. WHY of banks and costs for refinancing leaving deposits will be paid by you. There are some trillion loss for some trillion deposits left and most Europeans realize such connection as th SCHAUBLE WENT IN THE PARLIAMENT FOR IMMUNITY? No one else will buy recklessly junk bonds to collect them with force so EU will fall apart without Merkel , so the circles behind her push her strongly to be premier to keep their share bubble and wealth and all others run away to support her or take responsibility of reckless investments and loans she is so confused and greedy that may expect even I to pay them. Check Target 2 data these days for last month as I describe, I suppose they may be cheated by ECB fear of happening deposit run. Deposits leaving EU banks , rationing is coming in EU. USA

Posted on 6/27/18 | 10:19 AM CET

GE0RG1 G10RG1

may steal them ,so diversify. See how EUR declines 20 % close to currency crisis 25 % and ECB bluffs with interventions these days. Catalonia banks move their headquarters and may very soon impose deposit rationing. Then all EU will expect deposit rationing for them and deposits will leave. Bundesbank’s TARGET2 claims increase a lot to some 0.91 trillions at end 2017 according to monthly updated by them website where you can also see time series as Germany should not be able to provide much more means for mainly Spain , Italy but also Portugal , Greece banks in trouble to cover for their non reversible process of leaving deposits you may find on line. There will be soon deposit rationing in EU as the ECB bluff for growth and election changes in France , Germany does not work. . . . Require deposit rationing from Draghi as his friends will try to take complete deposits out and the loss ey move deposits ..See low prices of banks in EU as proof for trillions of assets. Main loss is coming from bad loans in eastern Europe some of the greatest in the world and bad prospects for growth in EU due to high government debts and wage rigidities. Follow Austrian banks telecoms as EU tries to sell lemons first. Greek banks are bankrupted with assets in Eastern Europe , Austrian banks work in the same region and their banks and telecoms data may be cheated . Follow also for illegal activities as money washing Austrian banks and telecoms. Follow EBRD condition , competence and fund mismanagement as well as all funds that cover eu sovereign bonds. Yellena may steal EU deposits. Ask them until when they will endanger the health of my family for the facts I reveal that endangers their financial markets forever. My family was moderately poisoned these days to scare me not to write here. I DO NOT HAVE COPY RIGHTS SO DISTRIBUTE IN EU ON LINE EDITIONS CAREFULLY.

Posted on 6/27/18 | 10:20 AM CET

Henk Crop

The immigration issue is just a question of numbers.
How to survive when potentially hundreds of millions people – which do not speak the language, do not have adequate education and have another culture/religion – like to come to Italy and the EU ?
Africa has 1250 million people. This number will double in 33 years.
Also people from the Middle East, Pakistan, Bangladesh, etc. like to come.

Posted on 6/27/18 | 10:22 AM CET

Deplor Ables

The article is obviously (and maliciously?) misleading because it puts at the center of the analysis the “migrants”, where instead the phenomenon concerns the “illegal migrants”, mostly male, young, in perfect health and excellent physical form, which cannot legitimately enter Europe, and then resorts to stratagems now become unbearable for the average intelligence of citizens who should welcome them (departures for Europe on unlikely boats, daily “shipwrecks”, “rescues” by NGO ships sailing there around by “chance” …), people who normally refuse to give their personal details, whose real name, age, provenance and possible criminal record are ignored, which are kept at the expense of citizens with a per capita cost higher than the one spent for minimum pensions for elderly Europeans, etc. etc.

Here, Mr. Villa, this is the figure of “migrant” that you should represent to the respondents in your statistical surveys, and finally you will realize the reasons and the real extent of the of the unbearability of the phenomenon for the majority of ordinary citizens (not intellectuals).

Posted on 6/27/18 | 10:46 AM CET

Deplor Ables

P.S.: If today robberies were down 80% compared to last year, the Italian government should stop pursuing robbers?

And if the robberies were diminished because the State has put in place effective tools for their repression, the drop of 80% should induce the Italians not to worry anymore about the phenomenon, abandoning the efforts? Or should it continue in the persecution to further reduce crimes, possibly towards 0%?

Posted on 6/27/18 | 11:32 AM CET

Hal Owen

It’s somewhat ironic that this article starts by stating ‘facts no longer seem to matter’ – and then continues to prove the point!

I’d say that’s an own goal by the author.

He clearly has no shame in massaging the figures to suit his own purposes. This has been a constant theme by so-called liberals, whether politicians or those within or associated with the media, in respect of the reporting of immigration, for many years.

I note the author describes himself as a ‘liberal’. He should be aware that acting in such a way is the complete opposite of what liberal values should stand for. The correct term is illiberal and anti-democratic, by seeking to impose their will with deceit and obfuscation.

There is now a general awareness that we are being lied to.

Posted on 6/27/18 | 11:37 AM CET

Henk Crop

I also wish to add that Africa is 7 times as large as the EU. It has 54 sovereign countries.
Ample opportunities for refugees and immigrants to start a new life.

Posted on 6/27/18 | 11:58 AM CET

Roh Land

I think we tried multiculturalism/multi-racialism in Europe and it failed. People now want to go back to ethnically/racially/culturally heterogeneous states. Our entire liberal order is based on the principle of equality before the law but what if people are simply not equal and cannot ever be equal ? That if you import Africans and Arabs the society will degenerate as they are unable to maintain and navigate a highly complex society as it exists in Europe ? Look at the USA there is only so much leeway you can give about ‘institutional racism’ and the ‘legacy of slavery’ for the failures of African American communities. No one can say we’ve not tried everything but in the end its like trying to push a square peg through a round hole. Now why don’t our politics follow the wishes of the public ? It is because they do not work for us but for ‘special interest’ groups , multinational corporations, financial institutions etc. and they only care about making a profit , more people taking on loans or buying their products. They do not care about what economists call ‘externalities’ the indirect costs of a transaction.

Posted on 6/27/18 | 12:24 PM CET

Viliam Sinka

Will the “liberal values” survive in Europe with a constantly growing islamic population? This population will vote in 20-30 years. I doubt that they do not want change legislation,customs as a majority.

Posted on 6/27/18 | 12:45 PM CET

peter lintner

It´s rather easy to explain why the “perception” of migrants is higher than real numbers.

1. Many migrants are unemployed so just hanging around in streets all day long and thus more visible. How many of 200 000 africans in Italy have a job?

2. But more importantly. Migrants are usually concentrated in CITIES and my guess is that most of polls are done in cities and not in countryside. And so if italians say that migrants make up 26% of population (of CITIES) they actually UNDERSTIMATE the real number.

In short. If this is the most what liberals can come up to defend their open door migrants policies, no wonder they losing the debate. Pathetic.

Posted on 6/27/18 | 1:56 PM CET

peter lintner

The most telling about liberal tactics how to manipulate public opinion comes at the end of article. We should not ask simple, straightforward questions like: “Do you agree with mass immigration from Africa? ” No. We should ask more subtle, or in other words, manipulative questions. How about this: “Do you agree that the little crying migrant girl, the picture of which you been bombarder with the whole last week, should be allowed to come in our country?” And if you say yes, which most would answer, that means you agree with endless, uncontrolled mass immigration. North Korea wouldnt produce a better and more manipulative propaganda.

The problem for liberals is that people start seeing through their dirty tactics.

Posted on 6/27/18 | 2:08 PM CET

Nick Blomme

If you read a lot of the reactions. Than indeed also lot of people are overreacting toward immegrants. That was already an well-known fact.
But there is also something wrong in the article. It has to do with the definition of ‘immegrant’. If they say only 8% of immegrants don’t work. Than people should also know immegrant includes EU-people. Like the biggest group of immegrants in Belgium are the Dutch and the French. Of course most of those people come to work so that keeps the number on non-working low. If you would exclude EU-people…it would give another number

Posted on 6/27/18 | 2:34 PM CET

peter lintner

Nick Blomme

” If they say only 8% of immegrants don’t work. …. If you would exclude EU-people…it would give another number. ”

Exactly. The thing is that many migrants are not included in these stats, because their legal status is not yet determined. For example, I read earlier this year that 75% of migrants coming to Germany in 2015 is unemployed. Pretty sure, they are not included in 8% unemployment rate. Yet another manipulation.

Posted on 6/27/18 | 2:44 PM CET

lib crit

In Europe today there are more far right politicians than migrants. It’s crazy.

Posted on 6/27/18 | 4:30 PM CET

Arnold Nussbaum

Figures can always prove your point.
In 1952 car production at the Volgograd car factory rose by 100% due to the heroic effort of the sovjet worker.
WOW!
That means they actually produced two cars.

Posted on 7/4/18 | 5:45 PM CET

Arnold Nussbaum

@lib crit
Not for long. The migrant population will soon overtake the local population.
Another point proven.

Posted on 7/4/18 | 5:47 PM CET

Arnold Nussbaum

Another point is that the majority are fleeing from countries that just a few decades ago escaped the colonial yoke and promised their citizens a golden future free from the exploitation of colonial masters.
The only golden future was for the few ‘struggle heroes’, the rest saw their living standards drop continually and they ‘escape’ to their former ‘masters’.
How pathetic.