The Geo-demography of America’s NEW Economic Boom

As the Trends editors have previously proclaimed, “It’s morning In America again." We’re now past the so-called “flash point” we spoke of in Ride the Wave. Business, consumers and policy-makers can now see that the “institutional transformation” needed to realize the full potential of the Deployment Phase of the Fifth Techno-Economic revolution is headed for completion. And economic decision-makers ranging from investors to managers and from employees to consumers are responding to evolving incentives.

Consider a few key metrics.

Small business owners are clearly on board. According to Juanita Duggan, President and CEO of the National Federation of Independent Business, “2017 was the most remarkable year in the 45-year history of the NFIB Optimism Index. With a massive tax cut for 2018, accompanied by significant regulatory relief, we expect very strong growth, millions more jobs, and higher pay for Americans.” NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg said, "We’ve been doing this research for nearly half a century, longer than anyone else, and I’ve never seen anything like 2017. The 2016 election was like a dam breaking. Small business owners were waiting for better policies from Washington, suddenly they got them, and the engine of the economy roared back to life."

Big business CEOs also see where things are going. As J P Morgan CEO Jamie Dimon told Fox Business, “The economy is doing quite well. 4% economic growth this year is possible.” Trump told CNBC he thinks the GDP will rise "much higher than that." And meanwhile, overall growth is already at its highest in 13 years.

Consumers are also very upbeat. As measured by the Conference Board, consumer confidence reached a 17-year high in November before falling slightly in December. Consumers’ expectations remained at historically strong levels, suggesting strengthening economic growth will continue well into 2018.

A big part of this enthusiasm is due to U3 unemployment ending 2017 at the lowest level in more than 17 years and new unemployment claims ending at their lowest level since 1973. And, while U6 unemployment ended 2017 at a stubbornly high 8.1%, that was down from 9...