Month: December 2013

Like all years, there were many weather “highs” and “lows” in 2013. Hot weather, cold weather, wet weather, dry weather, snowy weather. But when we look at the year as a whole, what do we find? It was VERY typical! In fact, the average temperature of 49.1 degrees is exactly normal for Youngstown!

91 was reached on two consecutive days in July (the 18th and 19th). A cold snap in January sent the mercury down to 3 above on both the 23rd and 24th.

Notice the precipitation total: almost exactly average!

Here’s a chart showing the temperature spread every day this year, with record highs and lows shown as well:

How did this year compare to past years, temperature wise? Here is a look at the average temperature each year going back to 1930:

As you can see, this year was cooler than the last few.

This chart shows how precipitation trends evolved over the year. After a dry Spring/early Summer, the second half of Summer was wet and included some flooding problems in July:

2013 was quite a bit drier than 2012:

Overall precipitation was near normal for the year, but snowfall was above normal. Here’s how this year’s snow compares to years past:

2014 is going to start very cold and snowy. What will the rest of the year bring? How will it compare to 2013? Check back in 365 days 🙂

After picking up an inch or so worth of snow Monday night and this morning, a period of quieter weather will be with us this afternoon and evening. It will just be windy and cold!

If you will be out celebrating the arrival of the new year tonight, be aware that there may be a touch of snow or flurries around…perhaps just enough to cause a slippery spot or two, especially on sidewalks, parking lots, etc.

This band of light snow will encompass much of northern Ohio and the southern Great Lakes:

As for the daylight hours of New Years’ Day, I think there will be some light snow around at times, especially north of I-80. Parts of Trumbull and Mercer counties might get an inch or two, with less than an inch more likely farther south. Here’s what the radar may look like at 4pm:

Notice the “steadier” snow in northwest Ohio? That will pivot across the state and through the Youngstown area Wednesday night and Thursday morning/midday. That time frame is when accumulations are most likely across the entire viewing area.

HOW MUCH??

When we total up snow accumulations from Wednesday through Thursday (again, MOST of it occurs Wednesday night/Thursday morning and midday)….the computer models have come into pretty good agreement. My “first stab” of 3-6″ made Monday morning looks pretty good. Best chance for the high end of the that range will be north of I-80.

Here’s the European model accumulation forecast:

The American GFS model:

The latest Short Range Ensemble Model (blue line) has an average of near 7″ at the YNG airport. This is probably a bit high, but not totally out of the question:

Ok, let’s talk about the cold for a minute. It’s going to come in 2 waves. The first one arrives in the wake of the snow Thursday night through Saturday morning.

Lows Friday morning (on European model):

Many places will flirt with 0 Friday morning and again Saturday morning. Here’s Saturday’s lows, again according to the European:

Next week’s cold is likely to be more intense, and some of the coldest weather we have had in at least a few years. How cold it gets is a tough forecast this far out. I think low temperatures of -5 to -10 are POSSIBLE for 1-2 mornings next week. Stay tuned!

Another weekend….another storm! This time it is RAIN and not snow that is our big concern. Scattered showers will occur today, with steadier rain expected for Saturday. The heaviest rain is likely to fall late Saturday and Saturday night.

This map shows the slug of heavy rain pushing through before daybreak on Sunday:

How much rain? The highest totals are likely to be from western Ohio down through the lower Ohio River Valley. Here’s how much rain the European model predicts:

A good 2 inches in the Mahoning Valley, with 3-5 inches from Toledo to Cinci and points southwest.

The National Weather Service has an even beefier prediction, with over 3″ for most of the WFMJ viewing area. I think this is probably somewhat overdone and that we are likely to be closer to 2″ total (between now and Sunday morning).

A broader view of the NWS forecast shows how water-logged the Ohio/Mississippi Valleys will be:

There is also a SEVERE weather risk….thankfully not here though. While a rumble of thunder is possible in the Youngstown area Saturday night, we are not expecting damaging winds or hail. Map shows enhanced risk in yellow for Cinci, Louisville, etc:

Those who live near rivers, streams and creeks need to be aware of the elevated flood risk, especially Saturday night and Sunday. Here is the forecast for the Mahoning River at Leavittsburg, Warren and Youngstown. Minor flooding possible, and moderate flooding cannot be ruled out:

After the rainy weekend, it looks quieter but colder for the few days around Christmas. As we have been saying for a few days now, a White Christmas is not likely at across the area. There will not be an inch on the ground Christmas morning and Christmas Day is likely to be snow-free. That said, there may be some “mood” flurries on Christmas Eve:

Christmas Eve will be windy and COLD with wind chills in the teens.

Who will get a White Christmas? Lots of places in the Midwest, northern New England: