World of Warcraft continues to hemorrhage subscribers...

(Posted on 8/5/14 at 8:11 pm)

- End of Vanilla WoW in Q4 2006: 8 million subs- End of TBC in Q2 2008: 10.9 million subs- End of WotLK in Q4 2009: 11.5 million subs- (WoW surpasses 12 million subs during Cata) - End of Cataclysm in Q2 2012: 9.1 million subs- Nearing the end of MoP in Q2 2014: 6.8 million subs(announced today)

I find it interesting that there is a positive correlation between the loss in subscribers and the complete democratization of content. At the end of The Burning Crusade, WoW was sitting at 11 million subscribers. There was no LFG, no LFR, and raids were strictly 25 man endeavors. The amount of subscribers stabilized around 11.5 million during WotLK, but started dropping significantly during Cata, and continued to plummet during Mists.

People can place blame on the loss in subscriptions due to the age of the game, but I firmly believe that Blizzard's inexorable campaign to dilute the complexity from this game and democratize the content are both big factors. They feel that everyone should be able to experience everything within the game, and that if something is too "difficult", then it requires an overhaul.

This design philosophy is in diametrical opposition to what Bungie is currently doing with Destiny, and I think it's why so many former MMORPG players are starting to gravitate towards the game. Destiny will feature end game raiding content, and Bungie recently announced that there would not be any matchmaking whatsoever for these raids. They've gone on record stating that you will have to take time to coordinate with other people, form your own groups, and make your way through the content. No hand holding, no democratization. The phrases Bungie throws around like "cooperation challenge" and "investment challenge" are completely foreign concepts to the guys at Blizzard.

They've stated that they don't care how many people get to experience this particular set of content, and that it is geared towards only the most dedicated players. Honestly, it's refreshing to hear a developer talk like this in the context of a MMO-esque game, and I can't help but think that WoW would have at least 9+ million subscribers at this point if Blizzard wasn't so insistent on equalizing access to nearly everything in the game.

re: World of Warcraft continues to hemorrhage subscribers... (Posted on 8/5/14 at 8:37 pm to Cs)

I really do not understand how these companies continue to make the same mistake over and over.

Galaxies starts out complex, with groups needed to complete certain events or bosses and only the hardest core made Jedi.....move to a vanilla leveling system and allow anyone to become Jedi, everything shuts down shortly after

WOW starts out with a unique system and slowly degrades to what it is now due to trying to play to the lowest common denominator.

re: World of Warcraft continues to hemorrhage subscribers... (Posted on 8/5/14 at 8:54 pm to SG_Geaux)

quote:And they have made millions and millions and millions doing it.

WoW's subscriber base experienced its most accelerated growth during vanilla and TBC - no LFG, no LFR, no handouts. There was an "investment challenge", as Bungie would describe it.

LFD was introduced during Cata, and subscriptions started to level off. During Cata, the talent trees were completely expunged from the game. Handouts were more prevalent. Subscriptions dropped down to 9.1 million by the end of the expansion.

Enter Mists of Pandaria. LFR was implemented and even more complexity was removed from the game. Currently, the game is sitting at 6.8 million subscribers, its lowest since 2006.

Bungie has stressed that they want Destiny to have an "investment challenge, gameplay challenge, and cooperation challenge". WoW used to triumphantly sport all three.

re: World of Warcraft continues to hemorrhage subscribers... (Posted on 8/5/14 at 9:20 pm to HailToTheChiz)

quote:I really think they made so much money they just dont care at this point

This is another point - WoW is really the only thing paying the bills at this point for Blizzard.

They have one expansion pack left for SC2, but SC2 is effectively dead and brings in little revenue. Diablo III has a little more life, but it doesn't generate anywhere near enough revenue to keep Blizzard going (especially since the AH was removed).

Hearthstone is a free to play game, and charging players for packs (which can also be obtained with in game gold) isn't a sufficient or reliable revenue stream.

Heroes of the Storm is still in alpha, and Blizzard clearly has no idea what they're doing with the game. They introduced a huge content patch about a week ago which was completely removed just days later after the massive outcry from fans. Additionally, it's another free to play game.

WoW is still responsible for the majority of Blizzard's profits - it's paying for dev salaries, projects, equipment, etc. They have no other revenue generator in place to take over for WoW, so they really can't afford to watch WoW's subscriber numbers decrease with each consecutive quarter.

re: World of Warcraft continues to hemorrhage subscribers... (Posted on 8/5/14 at 9:50 pm to burgeman)

quote: allow anyone to become Jedi

This happened because idiots whined and complained. Also, the bounty hunter path was ridiculously difficult and was a mind-numbing grind fest time sink.

And in the beginning if you managed to become a Jedi and died, you lost the character (or something along those lines). That was idiotic. Still, that game was probably the closest you can come to providing a full MMORPG experience for people that wanted to do a range of things (exploring, crafting, etc.).

I miss SWG.

quote:WOW starts out with a unique system and slowly degrades to what it is now due to trying to play to the lowest common denominator.

Yeah I tested in closed beta, and it was a game changer (pun intended). WoW was sick in its original form, but is a sad and pathetic shell of its former self.