Bryce Edwards: Threat of a Labour leadership coup

David Shearer may soon find himself a victim of the same poll-driven concerns that saw the Australian Labor Party replace Julia Gillard with her nemesis Kevin Rudd. That's the suggestion from a number of columns published this week by key commentators who say that Shearer's time might be almost up. Last night the two main television political editors both presented ominous reports for Labour's leadership - see Patrick Gower's Shearer put on notice by Labour MPs and Corin Dann's Crucial two months for David Shearer.

But the most recent doubts about Shearer's leadership started with John Armstrong's column on Tuesday this week, which declared it Time for the unthinkable for Labour. Armstrong has always been fairly sympathetic towards Shearer, so his raising questions about a possible coup against Shearer indicates the seriousness of the situation. And, of course, Armstrong's negative prognosis was written on the back of an opinion poll which showed both Labour and Shearer slumping six percentage points - covered in detail by Audrey Young in Poll shock: Labour, Shearer take dive as Nats roll on.

Narratives about the parallels between the Australian Labor Party's leadership and Shearer are starting to gain traction. Today the Dominion Post draws on the Gillard loss and says that the 'lesson for New Zealand's Labour Party is that if it is going to change its leader ahead of the election, it should do so sooner rather than later' - see: Ousting about 'saving the furniture'. Furthermore, it says that Labour's investment in Shearer 'has proved a dud', as the leader is 'no more assured a performer now than he was' when he took up the position.

Similarly, today's Taranaki Daily News says that like its Australian counterpart, Shearer's Labour Party can also be said to have 'become a "story of competing personalities", and that the politicians involved had "forgotten about the policy"' - see: Personalities pip politics as a child dies. After posing the questions 'Mired in personality conflicts? Lost in the fog of political spin? Lacking direction?' the editorial suggests that Labour needs to properly take up the serious issue of poverty.

But by and large the debate about Labour does revolve around personalities. Cameron Slater asks When will Grant Robertson move?, pointing out the difficulties for the deputy leader. Mana blogger Martyn Bradbury has been one of the biggest proponents of getting rid of Shearer, and once again promotes a Robertson/Cunliffe team - see: The Good news/bad news. See also, Bradbury's latest Labour Party Coup Watch warning upgrade. But Bradbury is taken to task by another leftwing blogger who says that Labour's problems go deeper than just Shearer, and that Bradbury's analysis is too superficial - see Steven Cowan's He's having a laugh, right?.

Shearer's leadership could be dealt another blow by this weekend's by-election - see Hamish Rutherford's Poll win seen as crucial for David Shearer. TV3 is already advertising its Sunday post-election coverage on The Nation by asking 'Can David Shearer survive the Ikaroa- Rawhiti By-election?'

The Government can monitor the movements of political journalists throughout the parliamentary complex. That's the latest finding in the long running GCSB-Dotcom-Dunne saga - see Tracy Watkins' Journalist's movements tracked by leak inquiry.

Finally, the Christchurch East by-election could be a fascinating contest if disgraced former National MP Aaron Gilmore follows through on his hints that he might stand - see his blogpost: Christchurch East By Election. This is parodied by Scott Yorke in I am risen, and for more interesting details see Rebecca Wright's Want more of Aaron Gilmore?.

Bryce Edwards is a lecturer in Politics at the University of Otago. He teaches and researches on New Zealand politics, public policy, political parties, elections, and political communication. His PhD, completed in 2003, was on 'Political Parties in New Zealand: A Study of Ideological and Organisational Transformation'. He is currently working on a book entitled 'Who Runs New Zealand? An Anatomy of Power'. He is also on the board of directors for Transparency International New Zealand.